Powell Seen Slowing Fed’s Hikes After 75 Basis Points Next Week - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to slow the pace of interest-rate increases after front-loading policy with a second straight 75 basis-point hike next week, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said. They expect the Federal Open Market Committee to lift rates by a half percentage point in September, then shift to quarter-point hikes at the remaining two meetings of the year. That would lift the upper range of the central bank’s policy target to 3.5% by the end of 2022, the highest level since early 2008.
The Fed Is Failing in Four Ways - by Mohamed A. El-Erian - Global economy watchers and market participants will be paying a lot of attention next week to how the Federal Reserve describes the US economic outlook, to the magnitude of its interest rate increase and whether it changes the pace of its balance-sheet contraction. Yet for the well-being of the US and global economy, the answer to these questions is less important than whether the Fed shows seriousness about fixing four failures that continue to fuel one of the worse policy mistakes in decades: Failures of analysis, forecasts, response and communication. On the economic outlook, the Fed will acknowledge that, once again, inflation has proved to be higher and more stubborn than projected and that, despite some signs of weakness, the US economy remains in a “good place.” With that, it is likely to again lift rates by 75 basis points and leave unchanged its previously announced plans for quantitative tightening.This will come as a relief to those worried that the Fed, playing a desperate game of catch-up, would raise rates by 100 basis points and worsen what is already an uncomfortably high risk of tipping the US economy into recession. Yet such relief will again prove fleeting unless the Fed also regains policy credibility by addressing its four persistent failures.The first is one of analysis. The Fed has yet to make the comprehensive analytical shift from a world dominated for years by deficient aggregate demand to the current one where deficient aggregate supply plays an important role. Its monetary policy approach is either still formally governed by the “new framework” adopted last year that is no longer suitable and should be publicly discarded or governed by no framework at all, thereby leaving the US and global economy without a much-needed anchor.The result of this is a central bank that continuously struggles to properly inform and influence economic agents, that consistently lags behind markets rather than leads them, and that could easily fall prey to the even more catastrophic policy mistake of returning to the 1970s trap of “stop-go” policies.The longer the Fed resists the overdue analytical pivot, the more its inflation and growth forecasts will continue to miss the mark, exacerbating the second failure. For the last few quarters, such projections have been quickly and correctly dismissed as unrealistic by a wide range of economists, market analysts and, even more unusual, former Fed officials. This matters even more now that the US economy is showing signs not just of weakening but also of flirting with a recession. Third, the Fed must be more agile in its policy responses. It is now widely agreed that, after sticking for way too long to its misguided “transitory” inflation call, it should have responded more forcefully when it finally “retired” this faulty characterization. This was confirmed by former Vice Chair Randal Quarles last week, who also referred to the concern that I and many others hold that the Fed is still co-opted by markets.Finally, the Fed must be more straightforward in its communication. It seems to remain the central bank in advanced countries that is most prone to, using a phrase from former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, “fairy tale economics”; and it is the most systemically important of all these central banks.Regardless of what the Fed does next week, without addressing these four deficiencies, the central bank will continue to lack the credibility needed to avoid being remembered by economic historians as having unnecessarily caused a US recession; having destabilized a global economy still trying to recover from Covid; having worsened inequality; having fueled unsettling financial instability; and having contributed to debt stress in fragile developing countries.
BankThink - After recent failures it's clear: Fed must be restructured | American Banker - The recent failing performance of the Federal Reserve System suggests it needs to be restructured to focus more effectively on its monetary mission of stable prices and maximum employment.The Fed has been cited for many failures in recent times, including the 1970s' Great Inflation, the Subprime Crisis and the Great Recession. The Fed’s repeated characterization of inflation last year as “transitory” was one of its biggest mistakes, and one with which we are still living. The Fed compounded this transitory mistake this year by signaling specific interest rate increases, but reversed its decision at the last minute by apparently leaking it to TheWall Street Journal. It lost much of its remaining credibility not only among central banks but also the American public, facing the highest inflation in 40 years plus a likely recession.The Fed’s poor performance is best summarized by a quote from the Nobel laureate Milton Friedman: “There is no institution in the United States that has such a high public standing and such a poor record of performance.”I would respectfully add “There is no institution with such a huge and effectively unregulated budget and such a poor record of performance.” Fed budgetary data show total expenses of $6.4 billion in 2020, with three-fourths from its 12 Federal Reserve banks.Having studied the Fed for over 50 years and taught my Wharton students about it for over 40 of those years, I believe there are at least four reasons for its poor performance.First, it has become increasingly political, as first documented by the analysis of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s calendar dating to 1996. That and the subsequent analysis of Ben Bernanke’s calendar concluded they were the two of the three most political Fed chairs in recent times. Calendars of Fed chairs and other top officials are now public without requiring painstaking FOIAs.Second, this Death of Fed Independence resulted in considerable “mission creep” causing it to lose focus on its main job. It was recently criticized for research on “social policy topics”like climate change and social justice, reflecting political and normative views of unelected officials in what is supposed to be an independent agency. This is evident in its recent 700-page proposal to reform the Community Reinvestment Act, which it cleverly clothed as an “interagency” effort. As a result of this mission creep, where the Fed is run more like a university with 12 Federal Reserve bank campuses, the agency has become an economic jack-of-all-trades but unfortunately a master of none.Third, the Fed strategically uses its supposed independence to help justify the lack of real budget and performance accountability. What company would keep researchers, including over 400 Ph.D. economists, when their best prediction last year was transitory inflation? And, who can justify two of the 12 Federal Reserve banks in Missouri, other than the fact that it was our nation’s geographic and railway center when the Fed was established in 1913? Fourth, the Fed board and FRB presidents, through no fault of their own, have become media celebrities, with every word uttered in speeches or CNBC interviews being dissected by Fed watchers. This celebrity status began with Alan Greenspan and his equally popular wife, the NBC anchor Andrea Mitchell, once named Washington’s No. 2 Power Couple.
Powell sells muni holdings as new Fed ethics rules take effect --Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently sold more than $1 million of municipal bonds issued by various entities across the U.S. as tough new ethics rules took effect for central bank officials in the wake of a trading scandal last year.The 22 separate transactions on June 30, with a total value ranging from about $1.2 million to $2.5 million, were detailed in a disclosure dated July 1 and published Thursday by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics. Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, arrives to a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, June 22, 2022. Powell said the central bank will keep raising interest rates to tame inflation following the steepest hike in almost three decades.Powell’s sales came at the early end of the 12 months that Fed officials have to dispose of prohibited holdings under the new rules, which were adopted in February and went into effect on May 1.Powell introduced the measures to avoid a repeat of the ethics scandal that engulfed the Fed in 2021. Revelations emerged on the unusual trading activities of some senior officials the year before as the central bank took emergency action to shield the U.S. economy from the spread of COVID-19.A Fed spokesperson said the central bank didn’t immediately have a comment. Powell had previously committed to making the divestments within 90 days of his confirmation for a second term as chair by the Senate, which happened on May 12.The Fed’s inspector general, Mark Bialek, announced last week that he had cleared Powell and former Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s trading activity, saying they had not broken any rules, but a probe into the former heads of the Dallas and Boston regional Fed banks remained open.Then-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and his Dallas counterpart, Robert Kaplan, stepped down last year after questions were raised about their trading activity during 2020. Rosengren cited ill health in announcing his early retirement.
The case for a digital dollar is ‘picking up momentum’ Once dismissed out of hand, the prospect of a Federal Reserve-issued digital currency is beginning to gain traction with Washington policymakers.Officials from Congress, the Federal Reserve and the Office of Financial Research have made a case in recent weeks for the development of a U.S. central bank digital currency, or CBDC, through public remarks and discussion papers. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard called CBDCs a “natural evolution” in the payments arena in a speech earlier this month. She added that digital fiat could stabilize crypto markets by providing a neutral settlement layer. The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building stands in Washington, D.C. While many policymakers have expressed skepticism on whether the Fed should pursue a central bank digital currency, some administration officials and members of Congress are building an affirmative case for a digital dollarSimilarly, a report from the OFR found that a CBDC would be a net positive to financial stability. By providing transparency about capital flows, the working paper notes, a digital currency could reduce the likelihood of a bank run by depositors worried about liquidity and also give regulators insights into budding crises in real time. The most emphatic endorsement for a CBDC came in a late June white paper from Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., who sits on the House Financial Services Committee. In it, he urges Congress to authorize the Fed to design and implement its own digital currency. Doing so, Himes argued, would be essential to the dollar maintaining its status as the world’s reserve currency. These arguments, coupled with the volatility in the private stablecoin market, have made the case for a CBDC more compelling, Himes said. “The focus of my office and a number of other people in Congress and the Fed, plus the devastation that we're witnessing in the stablecoin market right now, has given the idea momentum,” Himes told American Banker. “I wouldn't go so far as to call it a turning point … and it’s not unopposed, but I think it’s picking up momentum.”
Another Quarter of Negative Growth? - by Menzie Chinn - The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast for Q2 as of 7/15 was for -1.5% Q/Q SAAR. What does this tell us about what is likely to be the advance print, and then subsequent releases. Figure 1: GDP (black), Goldman Sachs (pink square), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (green triangle), IHS-Markit (light blue triangle), in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Nowcasts as of 7/15/2022. Source: BEA and Goldman Sachs, Atlanta Fed and IHS-Markit, and author’s calculations.What does this point estimate mean? From the Atlanta Fed FAQs: Since we started tracking GDP growth with versions of this model in 2011, the average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts is 0.84 percentage points. The root-mean-squared error of the forecasts is 1.25 percentage points. These accuracy measures cover initial estimates for 2011:Q3–2022:Q1. Some further analysis of GDPNow's forecast errors is available in macroblog posts located here and here. We have made some improvements to the model from its earlier versions, and the model forecasts have become more accurate over time (the complete track record is here). When back-testing with revised data, the root mean-squared error of the model's out-of sample forecast with the same data coverage that an analyst would have just before the "advance" estimate is 1.15 percentage points for the 2000:Q1–2013:Q4 period. The figure below shows how the forecasts become more accurate as the interval between the date the forecast is made and the forthcoming GDP release date narrows.. Overall, these accuracy metrics do not give compelling evidence that the model is more accurate than professional forecasters. The model does appear to fare well compared to other conventional statistical models.What does a 1.15 percentage point RMSE imply. Given that the RMSE does not decrease substantially from about 25 days to 1 day before announcement, I’ll use that number (we’re 13 days out from the July 28 release) to calculate the 90% interval for the GDPNow nowcast. Figure 2: GDP (black), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (green triangle) and 90% interval (gray +), in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Nowcasts as of 7/15/2022. Source: BEA Atlanta Fed and IHS-Markit, and author’s calculations.In other words, there is a possibility that GDPNow will record a positive growth figure for Q2 (or even a more negative one, as well).One has to take this historical track record with a bit of caution, because the model has been revised a number of times. In addition, from the April 29th release, additional measures have been taken to account for complications to seasonal adjustment and dynamics associated with the sharp downturn in 2020 (see here).More recently, the forecast errors over the past year have been -0.9 ppts, 1.8 ppts, 0.4 ppts, -1.8 ppts.Note that NBER BCDC does not use the two-consecutive quarter negative growth rule of thumb to define a recession.
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Negative - The advance estimate of Q2 GDP will be released next week, and the consensus is for real GDP to increase 0.4% in Q2.Note: We've seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP before without a recession (that isn't the definition). If Q2 is negative, it will mostly be due to inventory and trade issues. No worries. My view is the US economy is not currently in a recession, see: Predicting the Next Recession From BofA: In next week’s advance estimate of 2Q US GDP, we expect the BEA to report that the economycontracted by 1.5% qoq saar, marking the second consecutive decline in quarterly output. [July 22 estimate] From Goldman: [W]e lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +0.5% (qoq ar). [July 20 estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.6 percent on July 19, down from -1.5 percent on July 15. [July 19 estimate]
GDP Nowcasts by Menzie Chinn - GDPNow at -1.6%, St. Louis Fed News index at +4%, IHS-Markit at -2.0%, and Goldman Sachs at 0.5%. Bloomberg consensus at +0.4% (all q/q SAAR). Figure 1: Actual advance GDP growth rate (black), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (red line), St. Louis Fed News index (teal line), IHS Markit (sky blue triangle), Goldman Sachs (blue +), Bloomberg consensus (pink open square), all in %, NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. SAAR. Source: BEA via ALFRED, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed via FRED, IHS-Markit, Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, and NBER.Over this three year sample (clearly an unrepresentative one, given the pandemic’s impact), GDPNow is upwardly biased, while the St. Louis Fed news based nowcast is downwardly biased, by 0.8 and 0.9 ppts respectively. On the other hand, the RMSFE of the former is about 2 ppts, that of the latter 5.9 ppts. If you drop 2020Q1-Q3, then GDPNow is less downwardly biased than the St. Louis index, while the RMSFE is smaller (1.5 vs. 2.5 ppts). That being said, recall these nowcasts are aimed at estimating the advance release. The 7/28 release for 2022Q2 is an advance release, with many components of GDP estimated. The estimates will be revised, sometimes significantly, particularly in the annual benchmark (this year taking place in September instead of July), and in the five year comprehensive revisions (see discussion in this post). A positive reading can then eventually change to negative, and vice versa.
Wall Street braces for economic ‘hurricane’ - Recession fear is already dominating Washington. Now it’s gripping corporate America. CEOs across industries are increasingly grappling with the threat of an economic slump — possibly in a matter of months — sparked by rampant inflation and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool off prices by rapidly raising interest rates. Talk about recession and inflation has been a dominant topic on second-quarter corporate earnings calls that are starting to flood in. Many executives say they have given up trying to figure out whether inflation has peaked and what the Fed is going to do about it and shifted to preparing their businesses for a prolonged period of rising prices and slower growth. “The debate has shifted on inflation,” Asutosh Padhi, managing partner overseeing North America at consulting firm McKinsey & Co., said in an interview with POLITICO editors and reporters. “People have stopped trying to forecast, at least clients I speak with, on how much and how long” the run of inflation will last. “It’s permanent enough, therefore let’s strategize to think what it means to lead through inflation.” In private conversations, top CEOs grumble about uncertainty over whether inflation might cause the Fed to speed up rate hikes as well as over what many say are fiscal policy missteps in Washington. Surveys show business confidence is sagging, and consumer sentiment is near record lows.Some executives believe that Covid-era stimulus from President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion American Rescue Plan contributed to spiking prices — and fear that the situation could get worse as Democrats push to pump more cash into the economy in a new budget package this summer. On top of that, the strong chance that Republicans will retake the House brings the prospect of a return to government shutdowns and debt limit fights that plagued the economy during President Barack Obama’s administration. Both investors and executives are wrestling with one of the more complicated — and in many ways unprecedented — moments in American history, where the economy looks simultaneously strong, with solid job growth and consumer spending, and also close to toppling over. “There are very good numbers coming in,” said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on a call with analysts. “That’s the current environment. The future environment, which isn’t that far off, involves rates going up, maybe more than people think because of inflation.” Dimon, who warned last month that investors should brace for an economic “hurricane,” added that there is a “range of possible outcomes from a soft landing to a hard landing.” Wall Street indicators, including the direction of stock prices and the dollar, now predict a recession will hit by early next year, according to research from George Saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank. As recently as February, the Wall Street consensus held that a slump would not arrive in the U.S. until December 2024, after the next presidential election. The unpredictability of the moment is being fueled by the unknown: Few if any current Fortune 100 CEOs outside of Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett have ever dealt with an inflationary environment like this one. The 9.1 percent current annual rate of consumer price inflation is the highest since 1981 when Dimon, among the longest-serving big-company CEOs, was 25 and still at Harvard Business School. And no living executive has experienced the aftermath of a global pandemic that quickly forced the shutdown of much of the U.S. economy for a year before business activity was rebooted in a matter of months. So executives’ uncertainty about how to manage their businesses, coupled with consumer expectations at their lowest levels in nearly a decade, could tip the U.S. toward recession if companies start trimming investments and laying off workers and consumers stop spending.
Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 17th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 12.3% from the same day in 2019 (87.7% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019 - with some ups and downs, usually related to timing of holidays. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 14th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales were at $334 million last week, up about 14% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through July 9th. The occupancy rate was down 14.5% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of July 8th, gasoline supplied was down 17.3% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows weekly turnstile entries since 2015. Currently traffic is less than half of normal. This data is through Friday, July 15th.
Climate Change Legislation Stalls Amid Growing Inflation Concerns - The New York Times - News that even a stripped-down compromise to address a warming planet appeared to be dead was greeted in Washington by brutal condemnations from environmentalists and Democrats, some accusing Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, of dooming human life on Earth. Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington, called Mr. Manchin’s decision “nothing short of catastrophic.” But an electorate already struggling with inflation, exhausted by Covid and adjusting to tectonic changes like the end to constitutionally protected abortions may give the latest Democratic defeat a resigned shrug. And that may be why climate change remains an issue with little political power, either for those pressing for dramatic action or for those standing in the way. “People are exhausted by the pandemic, they’re terribly disillusioned by the government,” said Anusha Narayanan, climate campaign director for Greenpeace USA, the environmental group known for its guerrilla tactics but now struggling to mobilize supporters. She added: “People see climate as a tomorrow problem. We have to make them see it’s not a tomorrow problem.” The evidence that a climate crisis is well underway appears to be everywhere: the Great Salt Lake in Utah drying up, severe weather regularly imperiling the electric grid in Texas, wildfires scorching the drought-plagued West, “climate refugees” seeking higher land in Louisiana and tidal floods swamping the streets of Miami. Still, just 1 percent of voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll named climate change as the most important issue facing the country, far behind worries about inflation and the economy. Even among voters under 30, the group thought to be most energized by the issue, that figure was 3 percent. “This challenge is not as invisible as it used to be, but for most people, even those who live in greater Miami, this isn’t something they encounter every day, whereas their encounters with a gas pump are extremely depressing,” said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican House member from South Florida who pressed his party to act on climate change. He added: “In healthier economic times, it’s easier to focus on issues like this. Once people get desperate, all that goes out the window.”
Democrats, climate activists grasp for comeback after blow from Manchin - Democrats and climate activists reacted with shock and anger at Sen. Joe Manchin’s rejection of climate and energy investments under a party-line spending package — blasting the West Virginian’s move as one that would doom not just President Joe Biden’s agenda but the future of the planet.The news comes just two weeks after the Supreme Court curbed the Environmental Protection Agency’s power to regulate greenhouse gases from power plants, and as the Biden administration’s climate strategy has taken a backseat to efforts to ramp up oil and gas production to fend off inflation.The upshot is that the United States, the world’s No. 2 producer of greenhouse gas pollution, may find itself with little ability to address the problem — even after the Democrats who control the White House and Congress declared it one of their highest priorities.“I struggle to contemplate what single elected official in American history will do more to cause more massive suffering,” Sam Ricketts, co-founder and co-director for the environmental group Evergreen Action, said after news of Manchin’s rejection broke Thursday night. “There’s numerous examples, but if you want to look decades out from now, this decision by this one senator from West Virginia is going to have repercussions that affect millions, if not billions.”Democrats have struggled for months to pass a slimmed-down climate and energy package as part of a budget reconciliation bill that would require the support of all 50 Senate Democrats, including Manchin. He had previously said he could reach agreement on climate if legislation included elements helping both renewables and fossil fuels.But Manchin informed Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Thursday that he wouldn’t support the investments in climate and energy ahead of the August recess, and his office pointed to his concerns about stoking inflation in a statement.Manchin on Friday disputed reports that he had walked away from the talks completely, instead saying he is waiting for July inflation figures to make a determination and insisting Democrats could still vote on a reconciliation package with climate provisions in September. But that is past the July deadline that Schumer had set, and it forces Democrats to choose between making a deal now to lower prescription drug costs or hold out for a larger bill in September.“I can’t make that decision basically on taxes of any type and also on the energy and climate because it takes the taxes to pay for the investment in the clean technology that I’m in favor of,” Manchin said during a radio interview on West Virginia’s MetroNews. “But I’m not going to do something and overreach that causes more problems.”
Manchin disputes claims he rejected Dems’ climate and energy spending - Sen. Joe Manchin on Friday shot down reports that he’s walked away from climate and energy investments under Democrats’ party-line spending bill.The West Virginia senator said instead he’d like to see the July inflation figures before making any determinations.“Can’t we wait to make sure that we do nothing to add to that?” Manchin said during a radio interview on West Virginia’s MetroNews. “I can’t make that decision basically on taxes of any type and also on the energy and climate because it takes the taxes to pay for the investment in the clean technology that I’m in favor of. But I’m not going to do something and overreach that causes more problems.”POLITICO reported late Thursday Manchin had rejected the proposed energy and climate investments as part of the budget reconciliation package. Manchin earlier in the week expressed concerns over the package following new inflation figures that climbed to 9.1 percent, telling reporters anything Democrats pass needs to be “scrubbed” to make sure its not inflationary.But Manchin sought to keep the door open on talks Friday, which he said have been productive on the climate measures for months. “As far as I’m concerned, I want climate, I want an energy policy,” he said.“I think we need an energy policy that works for our country,” the Senate Energy Committee chair added. “I think we need an investment into the new technologies that will be totally carbon-free and we can do that also with those investments, but we cannot expect those investments to produce the energy that we need in a 10-year cycle without relying on the transition in fossil that we need right now.”Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), have for weeks advocated for passing the package before the August recess. But Manchin said senators could return in September and pass the bill, “if it’s a good piece of legislation.”“That’s the difference, they’re playing the political calendar and I do not subscribe to that at all,” he said.
Manchin’s offer to Dems: Take a health care deal or try again later -Joe Manchin is forcing Democrats into a brutal choice: Take a deal now to lower the costs of health care premiums and prescription drugs, or try to negotiate a larger bill in September that includes climate and tax reform with no guarantee it will pass. The West Virginia Democrat said Friday that he wants to see another month of inflation numbers before considering legislation that might increase taxes on some higher-income Americans and plow hundreds of billions of dollars into the energy sector. On Thursday Manchin “unequivocally” rejected July or August approval of Democrats’ proposed energy investments and tax increases in a meeting with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, according to a person briefed on the meeting. Manchin told West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval that he’s not cutting off negotiations with Schumer. But when it comes to the legislation that would spend $500 billion and raise $1 trillion in revenues, he advised his colleagues, “come back the first of September and pass this legislation if it’s a good piece of legislation.” “If you’re on a political deadline, and it has to be done in July, the one thing you know you can get done is basically … reducing drug prices, letting Medicare negotiate, that saves about $280 billion. over 10 years. Take 40 billion of that and extend the Affordable Care Act, the discounts that people were getting,” Manchin said. Democrats are reeling after Manchin’s communication to Schumer indicated that climate change and tax provisions are unworkable for any party-line bill considered this summer. Fury is building within the party, with Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) questioning whether Manchin should continue to chair the Senate’s Energy committee. And since Manchin stopped short of agreeing to vote for anything bigger in September pending inflation numbers due next month, Democrats would plunge into uncertainty if they don’t take the smaller deal on the table.
Biden to Senate Dems: Accept Manchin’s demands - President Joe Biden on Friday endorsed a deal all but demanded by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to tackle prescription drug reform and health care subsidies and leave climate change matters to a latter, uncertain date. In a statement issued by the White House, Biden pledged to tackle climate change and clean energy through executive action, should Congress not act legislatively. But he also asked Senate leadership to pass a narrow bill that would “give Medicare the power to negotiate lower drug prices and to prevent an increase in health insurance premiums for millions of families,” and to do so before the August recess. That timeframe is an informal commitment to pass a package along the lines of what Manchin has pushed for. The West Virginia Democrat told party leadership this week that he would not support a larger bill that included climate provisions and tax increases. He clarified on Friday that he might be able to support those measures but only after July’s inflation report comes in. That would require Congress to wait until after the August recess with continued uncertainty if Manchin would even support the final measure. Biden, in his statement, all but told lawmakers not to take such a risk. “Families all over the nation will sleep easier if Congress takes this action,” he said. “The Senate should move forward, pass it before the August recess, and get it to my desk so I can sign it.”
White House privately fumes about Manchin — and sees the futility of airing it out in public - The White House is steaming mad at Joe Manchin. Again. But as President Joe Biden and his advisers sift through the rubble of their domestic agenda and salvage the remains, this time they’re trying their hardest not to show it. Manchin, on Friday, said he could not support quick consideration of the administration’s climate and tax ambitions as part of a larger domestic spending bill. The president acquiesced to the demand. But White House aides and Democrats were left furious over what they deemed Manchin’s latest act of sabotage, blaming him for shifting the goalposts and blowing up key elements of an economic package months in the making. Manchin’s pronouncement dealt a blow to an administration that had spent the better part of a year trying to repair relations with the West Virginia Democrat. It also reinforced frustration that the senator could never seem to get to yes on a series of big issues. And after bending to the senator’s demands, only to now twice watch him blow up negotiations in spectacular fashion, even Biden has expressed puzzlement. The president has told confidants that while he understands Manchin represents a deep-red state, he can’t fathom why he keeps torpedoing the party’s best-laid plans. “Manchin is ridiculous,” said one Democratic operative close to Hill leadership, who requested anonymity to describe the sentiment at the party’s highest levels. “He’s just a game player and a bad actor.” Yet even as congressional Democrats heaped criticism on Manchin — with some pushing for him to be stripped of his Energy and Natural Resources Committee gavel — the White House is resisting the temptation to make its anger known publicly. Biden threw his support behind Manchin’s new demand for a package consisting of provisions to lower the cost of prescription drug prices and a two-year extension of enhanced Obamacare subsidies, saying he wanted it passed before the August recess. White House aides are sticking to a blanket policy against talking about the negotiations over the legislation, a directive established early this year after the senator detonated a previous version of the bill over complaints too much of the back-and-forth was playing out in public. And some people close to Biden note the times that the president and senior officials in the West Wing have praised their relationship with the enigmatic West Virginia lawmaker. As for Manchin himself, word has filtered through the West Wing that aides need to hold their fire on any attacks. “President Biden and senior White House staff have been in regular touch with Senator Manchin, but we do not detail private conversations,” White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement. “And we have been clear that the President and Senator Manchin are longtime friends who share important values about standing up for middle class families.” The two, Bates added, “deal with each other in good faith and anyone saying otherwise is not speaking for the White House.”
Manchin says climate bill risks inflation. But does it? - When Sen. Joe Manchin walked away last week from negotiations over the energy and climate spending package, he blamed inflation. He used the same justification to blow up a larger climate and social spending bill in December. But the conservative West Virginia Democrat hasn’t said much about why he believes such legislation — which includes incentives for wind and solar energy, hydrogen and electric vehicles — would cause consumer prices to rise more steeply. But many economists say the kinds of policies Democrats are pursuing would actually relieve pressure on consumers, not add to their burden. Boosting green technologies for transportation and power, they said, would have sent a signal to the fossil fuel industry that more competition is on the way. And the final package would have raised twice the revenue it spent in the form of taxes, at Manchin’s insistence. That, in turn, would have taken money out of the economy at a time when too many dollars are chasing too few products, paying down federal debt in the process. Steve Cicala, an economics professor at Tufts University, said the original “Build Back Better” package — as President Joe Biden’s proposal was once called — came with political framing that lent itself to charges that it would overheat an already boiling economy. Biden first offered the proposal during the 2020 presidential campaign as a way to stimulate the economy, and it featured provisions aimed at benefiting union labor and other Democratic priorities that might have led federal dollars to flow to more expensive products and services, Cicala said. But the core provisions of the $375 billion energy and climate package Manchin abandoned last week would not have been “at all inflationary,” he said. “The credits to increase the production of electricity from renewable sources would lower the price of electricity — not raised it — at a time when coal and natural gas and oil are at very high prices,” Cicala said. “A policy that encourages the production of fuels that don’t use those inputs is going to be beneficial for consumers and lower prices overall.” “So, there’s really no way of spinning that as an inflationary policy,” he said.Manchin ended months of negotiations over a scaled-back climate spending package last week when he reportedly told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) that he would only back much narrower spending on prescription drugs and health care. But economists say provisions Manchin succeeded in attaching to the Senate bill would help bring down prices. The budget package Manchin and Schumer were working on would have raised twice as much revenue in the form of taxes on corporations and rich individuals as it spent on federal programs like production and investment tax credits for wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen. Put another way, it would have taken twice the money out of the economy over the next ten years that it put into it.
Opinion | What Joe Manchin Cost Us - The New York Times - Dr. Leah Stokes -Over the past year and a half, I’ve dissected every remark I could find in the press from Senator Joe Manchin on climate change. With the fate of our planet hanging in the balance, his every utterance was of global significance. But his statements have been like a weather vane, blowing in every direction. It’s now clear that Mr. Manchin has wasted what little time this Congress had left to make real progress on the climate crisis.Since early 2021, congressional Democrats and President Biden have worked relentlessly to negotiate a climate policy package. When Build Back Better passed the House last fall, it included $555 billion in clean energy and climate investments. After four decades of gridlock in Congress, the Democrats were poised to finally pass a major climate bill, with agreement from 49 senators. But on Thursday, one man torched the deal, and with it the climate: Mr. Manchin.By stringing his colleagues along, Mr. Manchin didn’t just waste legislators’ time. He also delayed crucial regulations that would cut carbon pollution. Wary of upsetting the delicate negotiations, the Biden administration has held back on using the full force of its executive authority on climate over the past 18 months, likely in hopes of securing legislation first.The stakes of delay could not be higher. Last summer, while the climate negotiations dragged on, record-breaking heat waves killed hundreds of Americans. Hurricanes, wildfires and floods pummeled the country from coast to coast. Over the past 10 years, the largest climate and weather disasters have cost Americans more than a trillion dollars — far more than the Democrats had hoped to spend to stop the climate crisis. With each year we delay, the climate impacts keep growing. We do not have another month, let alone another year or decade, to wait for Mr. Manchin to negotiate in good faith.The climate investments in the bill ranged from incentives for clean power like wind and solar to support for electric vehicles. They were essential to meeting President Biden’s goal of cutting carbon pollution in half from its 2005 levels by 2030 — the United States’ contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels. Congress’s failure to act means that under the best-case scenario with the policies we already have in place, we will only get 70 percent of the way there.After months of stop-and-start discussions, with Mr. Manchin repeatedly walking away from the negotiations, Congress has largely run out of time. Democrats need to pass their reconciliation package this summer, and despite weeks of round-the-clock effort from Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, and his team, Mr. Manchin has now refused to agree to vote for spending on climate. While he claimed on a West Virginia talk show on Friday that it wasn’t over, that “we’ve had good conversations, we’ve had good negotiations,” this is doublespeak; he simply doesn’t want to be held accountable for his actions. He has consistently said one thing and done another.Mr. Manchin’s refusal to agree to climate investments will hurt the economy he claims he wants to protect. The package would have built domestic manufacturing, supporting more than 750,000 climate jobs annually. It would have also fought inflation, helping to make energy bills more affordable for everyday Americans. This is particularly ironic, since Mr. Manchin said inflation was the chief reason he was uncomfortable with supporting tax incentives for clean energy right now.
Joe Manchin says he wants Congress to pass climate programs after he tanked passage of climate programs --Less than a week after sinking a Democratic effort to combat the climate emergency, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia says he wants Congress to approve new programs to fight the climate emergency.Asked about his reaction to President Joe Biden weighing the declaration of a national climate emergency, the conservative Democrat responded: "Let's see what the Congress does. The Congress needs to act."The Washington Post first reported that Biden was deciding whether to undertake that maneuver, meant to pave the way for a slew of executive actions to confront climate change. It's unclear how aggressively the White House will move, but some climate activists are pressing them to bar crude oil exports and restrain drilling in federal waters. Manchin later rejected criticism from his Democratic colleagues that he had strung his party along for the past year in negotiations to secure their agenda. But private frustrations are starting to spill out into the open due to his swerving public positions."It's not fair to string people along for a year and not come to a conclusion," Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico told reporters on Tuesday. "It's not an appropriate way to negotiate."Heinrich suggested on Friday that Manchin should be stripped of his chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee after the latest round of talks fell apart. That view does not seem to be widespread among Senate Democrats, who want to avoid angering a critical vote on their agenda.It comes in the wake of Manchin privately telling Democratic leaders last week that he'd only support passing a pair of new healthcare programs, making clear he was opposed to tax increases and climate initiatives despite publicly and privately expressing support for those measures over months."Joe Manchin truly is Lucy, he just keeps moving the football every time the rest of the team runs up to kick it," Rep. Andy Levin of Michigan told Bloomberg.
Excluding Insulin From Drug Price Reform a ‘Slap in the Face,’ Advocates Say - Hundreds of people affected by the United States’ sky-high insulin prices and more than two dozen progressive advocacy groups on Monday told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer that it would be an “enormous mistake” to exclude insulin-related provisions from an emerging reconciliation bill.“Excluding insulin from drug pricing reform would be a slap in the face for the millions of Americans who rely on this lifesaving medicine to manage their diabetes.”The initially far-reaching but now heavily curtailed economic package that congressional Democrats hope to pass through the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process before November’s pivotal midterms is expected to focus on lowering drug prices—the one major reform that right-wing Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) has agreed to in his negotiations with Schumer (D-N.Y.).Earlier this month, Senate Democrats—including Manchin, whose vote is indispensable in the evenly split upper chamber—reached a deal on a plan that would allow Medicare Part D to negotiate the prices of up to 20 prescription medications directly with pharmaceutical corporations, a proposal that is overwhelmingly popularwith voters across party lines.“As Congress verges on finally putting in place a system for Medicare drug price negotiation and advancing other urgently needed reforms, we ask that you ensure people who need insulin to live are not left behind,” the coalition wrote to Schumer in a letter signed by Public Citizen, T1International, the Center for Popular Democracy, and other groups and individuals.Legislation passed by the House and considered by the Senate last year included language that would have made all insulin products subject to Medicare price negotiation and that would have capped Medicare beneficiaries’ insulin copays at $35 per month.Both provisions have been left out of the latest draft of the bill released by the Senate Finance Committee, however, much to the dismay of consumer advocates and people with diabetes.
Democrats eye options for big climate action this year - Senate Democrats tried to revive hope yesterday that they might still pass climate legislation this year, but they face significant headwinds, and many are ready to move on and take what Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will give them. Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who helped author much of the clean energy tax package that was under discussion, said conversations on climate “must continue to preserve our options to move forward.” “While I strongly support additional executive action by President Biden, we know a flood of Republican lawsuits will follow. Legislation continues to be the best option here,” Wyden said in a statement. “The climate crisis is the issue of our time and we should keep our options open.” Advertisement Many in the party, however, are ready to cut bait and move ahead with a slimmed-down party-line reconciliation bill that contains only drug pricing provisions and Affordable Care Act subsidies. “We have waited a year and a half for 50 votes,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told reporters. “It’s time to move.” Manchin told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) last week that he could not support the clean energy and tax hike provisions, after inflation hit 9.1 percent this month. Manchin has left the door open to moving a broader bill in September, if the July consumer price index numbers come down, a point he reiterated yesterday. But many Democrats are prepared to take what could be a significant legislative win on drug pricing and the ACA. It’s also a midterm issue, since the bill could avert ACA premium increases set to take hold next month, which Democrats see as a pocketbook issue for voters.
Senate Dems shrug at long odds, vow renewed climate push - An increasingly vocal group of Senate Democrats wants to keep negotiating with Sen. Joe Manchin on a climate bill, but they face massive hurdles, and President Joe Biden is expected to move ahead with executive action.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) made it official yesterday: Democrats are moving forward on a smaller party-line reconciliation package centered on drug pricing and health care.But Schumer said he would “keep fighting” on climate, keeping alive slim hopes that Democrats can still negotiate a deal on clean energy and taxes with Manchin (D-W.Va.) if next month’s inflation numbers come down — a prerequisite from Manchin.“We’re urging the administration to do things that it can do administratively,” Schumer told reporters. “We’re going to look at everything that we can do.”He added, “There is always a second reconciliation bill available to us.”That happy talk on another round of budget reconciliation this fall would be a massive lift, taking up a great deal of Senate floor time. Moreover, it’s not evident Democrats have a real shot at striking a deal with Manchin, who had been negotiating privately with Schumer for months. Some are already acknowledging that getting a climate bill done looks highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Biden is slated to announce new executive actions on climate today, effectively an acknowledgment of the collapse of a legislative path.
Democrats have no appetite for yanking Manchin's gavel -Democrats have little interest in removing Sen. Joe Manchin from the Energy and Natural Resources chair, despite calls from the environmental community to oust the Democratic West Virginia senator after he killed climate legislation last week.Many Democratic senators are trying to avoid talking about Manchin, given that they still need his vote on nominations and on a slimmed down reconciliation package centered on drug pricing and the Affordable Care Act. Others think removing him from the helm of ENR is a downright bad idea.“I think that would be incredibly foolish and counterproductive,” said Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats and a member of ENR. “Do they want Mitch McConnell to be majority leader?”Manchin drew rage from environmental groups and his own party when he told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) that he could not support the climate provisions in reconciliation while inflation remains sky high, likely dousing Democrats’ chances of moving on the issue in this Congress.Evergreen Action Executive Director Jamal Raad called on Democrats last week to “act immediately to remove this coal baron’s gavel.” It’s also a sore spot for some progressive greens, who opposed Manchin moving to the top Democratic seat on ENR in 2018 and his ascension to chair when Democrats took over the Senate in 2021.But it’s become increasingly clear this week that, for now, Democrats aren’t going to take away his gavel (E&E Daily, July 19). So far, just one member of the Senate, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), has publicly raised questions about his chairmanship.Heinrich and Manchin spoke privately off microphone during an ENR hearing yesterday. Asked about the conversation afterward, Heinrich said, “We’re both professionals.“We’re having honest conversations,” Heinrich said in an interview. “For me, this is not about Sen. Manchin. This is about how do we solve inflation, given that 41 percent of inflation is tied directly to the increase in fossil fuel costs? And how do we get action on climate?”
Biden's climate plan in free fall - President Joe Biden’s miserable climate summer is getting worse. His authority to regulate carbon emissions was hobbled by the Supreme Court last month as a three-year drought devastates parts of the West, with dangerous wildfires, hurricanes and floods looming as threats to large portions of the United States. Then, late last week, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) stripped Biden of one of the last potential victories remaining: passage of major climate legislation. Already, few political pundits foresaw Democrats keeping control of Congress, and their hopes of salvaging enough electoral wins to retain the Senate might be more remote without a legislative victory on climate change in the months before midterm elections. “We’ve got to pass a bill,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who is up for reelection in November, said last week. “I never respond to the question ‘Are you concerned?’ But, yes.” The Supreme Court decision in West Virginia v. EPA last month restricted the Biden administration’s ability to regulate power plant emissions, essentially designating climate action to Congress. On Thursday, Manchin made it clear that no significant climate policy will pass this Congress, which is split 50-50 and needs the support of every Democrat on climate legislation. The political standoff occurs as a wave of climate-fueled disasters are underway. Intense flooding in southwest Virginia carried away homes and forced dozens of people to flee for their lives last week. New Mexico is battling the biggest wildfires in state history. And yawning expanses of the West are feeling the damaging effects of a yearslong megadrought. If recent history is a guide, Biden could soon be doing another tour of flooded communities, burned mountainsides and storm-struck coastlines to talk about the cost of doing nothing to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. When he did that last year, he had a solution: his $1.8 trillion “Build Back Better” plan. That died in December when Manchin announced his opposition to it during a live broadcast on Fox News. The far more modest effort that arose in its place, but that still included about $300 billion in climate-related spending, collapsed on Thursday, when Manchin withdrew his support.
Biden vowing 'strong' climate action despite dual setbacks - (AP) — President Joe Biden is promising “strong executive action” to combat climate change, despite dual setbacks in recent weeks that have restricted his ability to regulate carbon emissions and boost clean energy such as wind and solar power. The Supreme Court last month limited how the nation’s main anti-air pollution law can be used to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. Then late Thursday, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said he wants to delay sweeping environmental legislation that Democrats have pushed as central to achieving Biden’s ambitious climate goals. Biden, who has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, said Friday that “action on climate change and clean energy remains more urgent than ever.” If the Senate will not act to address climate change and boost clean energy, “I will take strong executive action to meet this moment,” Biden said in a statement from Saudi Arabia, where he met Friday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Biden did not specify what actions he will take on climate, but said they will create jobs, improve energy security, bolster domestic manufacturing and protect consumers from oil and gas price increases. “I will not back down,” he promised. Some advocates urged Biden to use the moment to declare a national climate emergency and reinstate a ban on crude oil exports, among other steps. Declaring a climate emergency would allow Biden to redirect spending to accelerate renewable energy such as wind and solar and speed the nation’s transition away from fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. Climate advocates, including some of Manchin’s Democratic colleagues in the Senate, said Manchin’s announcement that he cannot back the climate provisions in the Senate bill — at least for now — frees Biden of the obligation to cater to a powerful, coal-state senator eager to protect his energy-producing home state. Manchin’s vote is decisive in the evenly divided Senate, where Republicans unanimously oppose climate action. “Free at last. Let’s roll. Do it all and start it now,” tweeted Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I. who has long pushed stronger action on climate. “With legislative climate options now closed, it’s now time for executive Beast Mode,” Whitehouse wrote.
What happens if Biden declares a climate emergency? - The White House could soon declare a climate emergency to give President Joe Biden more power to act without Congress’ help. When negotiations with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) over climate and energy legislation collapsed, Biden pledged to use his executive authority to take action. Declaring an emergency could help him move even more aggressively on that front. Biden was considering making such an announcement as early as this week, The Washington Post reported last night, citing people familiar with the matter. Biden is slated to travel to Somerset, Mass., tomorrow to “deliver remarks on tackling the climate crisis and seizing the opportunity of a clean energy future to create jobs and lower costs for families,” the White House announced today. Asked about whether a climate emergency declaration is imminent, a White House official granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations told E&E News, “The president made clear that if the Senate doesn’t act to tackle the climate crisis and strengthen our domestic clean energy industry, he will. We are considering all options, and no decision has been made.” A personal familiar with the administration’s thinking who is not authorized to talk to the press thought the White House would want to show a muscular response to the recent legislative meltdown, especially after its reaction to last month’s Supreme Court abortion ruling was lackluster. “A historic climate emergency declaration is exactly what we need from Biden to match the scale and urgency of this crisis,” said Jean Su, energy justice program director at the Center for Biological Diversity. Su said Biden tomorrow could issue a fairly symbolic national emergency that would light a fire under the federal agencies. But, she said, it could be coupled with more specific policy decisions, like reinstating the 2015 crude oil export ban. “That would be incredible,” she said. Su said she suspects recent administration actions to advance oil and gas leasing were “breadcrumbs” for Manchin. “I think with that door closed, we may see something good on oil and gas leasing — like phasing out existing,” she said. “That is consistent with a national emergency declaration.” Advocates want Biden to use national emergency and defense laws to funnel federal investments toward renewable energy, halt new fossil fuel leases and prod manufacturers to increase supplies of renewable energy technologies. “There should be an alarm in the White House that reads, ‘In case of congressional inertia, declare a climate emergency,’” said Daniel Weiss, a longtime environmental advocate. “Our ferocious Western wildfires, record drought and unprecedented European heat wave are more than enough signals that we don’t have the luxury of pollution procrastination.” The move would be a victory for young progressives with the Sunrise Movement, who had pushed candidate Biden to add such a declaration to his platform.
Declaring a climate emergency could unlock potent tools for Biden — at a steep cost - Invoking a national emergency over climate change would enable President Joe Biden to unleash sweeping actions to restrain greenhouse gas production — such as banning U.S. crude oil exports, ending offshore drilling or speeding the manufacturing of electric vehicles. But some of those steps would be politically explosive, and could even prove ruinous to his party’s fortunes by sending gasoline prices soaring. Others would threaten to alienate European allies looking to U.S. fuel supplies to ease their dependence on Russia. And any executive actions Biden takes would run the risk of falling to the same conservative Supreme Court that has already hobbled his regulators’ ability to rein in carbon pollution.Many of Biden’s supporters in Congress are urging him to go bold nonetheless, pointing to the record heat waves melting much of the globe,wildfires raging across the U.S., and Colorado River flows dwindling from the worst megadrought in 1,200 years. Those are signs that the time is past for mild responses to the climate crisis, lawmakers like Rep. Earl Blumenauer(D-Ore.) said.“This is the time when people want their expectations raised and they want something delivered,” said Blumenauer, who has long urged Biden to declare a climate emergency. Supporters of the move note that 39 countries have already declared climate emergencies, as have nearly 200 U.S. cities and counties. “The president has an ability to protect our country when our national security is threatened,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) told reporters Monday. “And clearly, the climate crisis is a threat to national security.” Biden isn’t going the emergency route for now, the White House says. Instead, he used his speech on Wednesday in front of a coal-plant-turned-wind-power project in Somerset, Mass., to announce efforts to power more homes using offshore wind, expand programs for low-income households to buy efficient air conditioners and deploy $2.3 billion to bolster community climate resilience.The appearance is meant to send the message that Biden is not totally powerless on climate change, despite last month’s Supreme Court rebuke and the collapse of Democrats’ year-long effort to push a major climate billthrough Congress. Biden still has actions he can take using his non-emergency executive authority.
Biden searches for climate emergency 'sweet spot' - President Joe Biden is poised to unlock sweeping new powers to combat climate change — in theory, at least. Stymied in Congress by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Biden is considering whether to declare a national emergency on climate. Such a move would grant the White House a freer hand to reshape supply chains, international trade and energy markets. In practice, though, the White House faces a balancing act between climate executive action and Biden’s other top priorities. Many of the emergency powers available to Biden would threaten his near-term efforts to lower gasoline prices and counter Russia’s war in Ukraine. How Biden will resolve those trade-offs is an open question among Democrats and their allies. In recent days, more Democrats have embraced the climate emergency option, said Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), a longtime champion of the option. He said they don’t want to spend the summer “fumbling along” and waiting for climate legislation. “It’s clear this doesn’t need to be just an arrow in the quiver,” Blumenauer said. “This can be something that the administration can proceed with because it can happen quickly.” Biden has to make two choices. The first is whether to declare a climate emergency at all; the second is what to do with that declaration. Progressives are offering the White House a menu of emergency powers ranging from expediting EPA regulations to restricting fossil fuel financing across the globe. In a sign of how much remains undecided, the White House preempted a climate speech Biden is scheduled to deliver today. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the president would not make any emergency declaration this week. “We think it’s a live conversation,” said Jamal Raad, executive director of Evergreen Action. Biden doesn’t have to present his full plan today, Raad added, but he should begin outlining his next steps. That includes building an aggressive political case for restricting fossil fuel development while gas prices remain high. Ending fossil fuel leasing on public lands — a campaign promise of Biden’s — is among the most discussed options, along with using the Defense Production Act to surge capacity to renewable energy manufacturers. Climate hawks also want Biden to use emergency powers to reject individual oil and gas projects, like the pending Willow project in Alaska.
Biden to discuss climate 'emergency' without declaring one -President Joe Biden thinks climate change is an emergency, one of his top advisers said today. But he isn’t ready to make it official.In the wake of the latest collapse of congressional climate negotiations, Biden is traveling to Massachusetts this afternoon to tout his commitment to tackling the issue at the site of a former coal-fired power plant that’s being converted into a facility that makes parts for the offshore wind industry.“The president is going to make it clear that climate change is an emergency,” White House climate adviser Gina McCarthy told NPR’s “Morning Edition” today as she previewed Biden’s speech. “He’s going to use all the powers available to him. And we’re going to make our climate goals. You know, there is just no choice.”Biden is expected to lay out new executive actions to bolster the country’s resilience to climate change and expand renewable energy, but he won’t be declaring a climate emergency this week, his spokesperson told reporters yesterday.Declaring a national climate emergency — a move some climate advocates have been pressing him to make since he took office — would give Biden more leeway to use his executive power to tackle the issue (Greenwire, July 19).“This climate emergency is not going to happen tomorrow,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said yesterday. But “we still have it on the table,” she added.Frustrated Democrats and environmentalists intend to keep up pressure on the administration to declare a national emergency.Senators led by Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) sent a letter to Biden today urging him to “unlock the broad powers” of the National Emergencies Act. That recommendation doesn’t come lightly, they wrote, adding that they fought former President Donald Trump’s efforts to use his executive power to “build a wasteful and destructive border wall.” A president’s “emergency powers should not be used wantonly,” they wrote. But, they said, “if ever there is an emergency that demands ambitious action, climate chaos is it.”The letter was signed by eight Senate Democrats and Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders.Asked today whether he was disappointed that Biden isn’t yet declaring a climate emergency, Sanders said, “It is imperative that the administration use every tool that they can to try to save the planet and put the United States in a leadership position working with other countries to cut carbon emissions.”
Biden pivots to executive action: ‘This is an emergency’ - President Joe Biden, attempting to salvage his climate change agenda, today announced executive actions to boost wind energy production and blunt the impacts of extreme heat.The new moves come as part of a broader administration push to address climate change and its impacts after Biden’s latest legislative push on climate fizzled on Capitol Hill. The administration says the White House plans to roll out additional climate policies in the coming weeks.“As president, I have a responsibility to act with urgency when our nation faces clear and present danger, and that’s what climate change is about,” Biden said during a speech at the site of a former Massachusetts coal-fired power plant that’s transitioning into a manufacturing site for wind energy parts.The White House announced today that the Interior Department is proposing the first wind energy areas in the Gulf of Mexico, which could entail 700,000 acres. Biden is also directing Interior Secretary Deb Haaland to advance wind energy development in the waters off the mid-Atlantic and southern Atlantic Coast and Florida’s Gulf Coast, the White House said.The Federal Emergency Management Agency announced $2.3 billion in funding for a program aimed at helping communities become more resilient to heat waves, drought, wildfires and other disasters.And the Department of Health and Human Services issued new guidance to expand how a low-income housing assistance program can help keep households cool.Biden stressed that he views climate change as an emergency, although he stopped short of declaring a national climate emergency, which would enable him to exert even more presidential power to address the issue (Greenwire, July 20).“This is an emergency, and I will look at it that way,” Biden said. In the coming weeks, he said, he plans to use “the appropriate proclamations, executive orders and regulatory power” available to him.
Facing legislative failure, Biden announces incremental climate initiatives : NPR -- As President Biden's climate ambitions continue to languish in the Senate, he traveled to the site of a former coal power plant in Massachusetts to announce new funding designed to help communities bear extreme heat, as well as tout the country's developing offshore wind industry."As president, I have the responsibility to act with urgency and resolve when our nation faces clear and present danger. And that's what climate change is about," Biden said. "It is literally — not figuratively — a clear and present danger."Biden announced $2.3 billion for the Federal Emergency Management's Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities initiative, which supports projects in communities designed to reduce the risks posed by extreme weather events.Heat is the biggest weather-related killer of Americans, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Last year's extreme heat wave that gripped the Pacific Northwest is estimated to have killed more than 1,000 people in the United States and Canada.As NPR has previously reported, the impact of extreme heat is not felt uniformly. In American cities, residents of low-income neighborhoods and communities of color endure far higher temperatures than people who live in whiter, wealthier areas.Biden also announced a change to the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Programthat will allow states to use program funding to establish cooling centers and defray the cost of cooling equipment for poorer Americans."For the first time, states will be able to use federal funds to pay for air conditioners in homes, to set up cooling shelters in schools that people can use to get through these extreme heat crises," Biden said.The Brayton Point Power Plant, where Biden delivered his address, was once the largest coal powerplant in the northeast, a White House official said. Now the site serves as manufacturing center for the wind industry."On this site, they will manufacture more than 248 miles of high-tech, heavy-duty cables," Biden said. "Those specialized, subsea cables are necessary to tie offshore windfarms to the existing grid."Today's speech follows last month's announcement by the White House of a new "federal-state offshore wind implementation partnership" intended to grow the industry."The partnership will support efforts to provide Americans with cleaner and cheaper energy, create good-paying jobs, and make historic investments in new American energy supply chains, manufacturing, shipbuilding, and servicing," the administration said in a statement.Biden's climate remarks Wednesday largely focused on the energy transition as a tool to boost the number of quality, unionized trade jobs while furthering his ambitious climate promises.
Biden unveils AC subsidies during heat wave, promises action after Manchin blocks climate bill - President Biden traveled to Massachusetts Wednesday to announce more than $2 billion in environmental spending including subsidies for air conditioning units — as he vowed more executive actions to combat the “climate crisis” with Sen. Joe Manchin blocking a new spending bill.Biden, speaking in front of a former coal power plant that’s being converted to support offshore windmills, said he will unilaterally act as concern about soaring inflation has lead to in gridlock in Congress.“This crisis impacts every aspect of everyday life,” Biden said in a 19-minute speech. “That’s why today I’m making the largest investment ever, $2.3 billion, to help communities across the country build infrastructure that’s designed to withstand the full range of disasters we’ve been seeing up to today — extreme heat, drought, flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes.”The funds will be taken from the FEMA Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Program for fiscal year 2022, according to the White House.“Right now there are millions of people suffering from extreme heat at home,” Biden said amid a heat wave impacting parts of Europe and North America. “My team is also working with the states to deploy $385 million right now — for the first time, states will be able to use federal funds to pay for air conditioners in homes where people can get through these extreme heat crises,” he said.Biden made the trip aboard greenhouse-gas-spewing Air Force One as his special presidential envoy for climate, John Kerry, faced charges of hypocrisy after a report said his family’s private jet has emitted more than 300 metric tons of carbon dioxide since he assumed the post last year.Massachusetts Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey joined Biden aboard Air Force One. Markey co-authored the Green New Deal with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).Biden’s transportation for a short speech included the flight to Warwick, Rhode Island, followed by a gas-guzzling motorcade 25 miles to Brayton Point Power Station in Somerset, Mass., before a return trip to DC. A decoy presidential plane typically makes the trip as well, compounding the carbon dioxide put into the air. In addition, two C-17 military planes that transport Secret Service vehicles flew to Rhode Island a day ahead of the president to ensure proper security precautions were in place.
Ocasio-Cortez leads House bid to reverse EPA climate ruling - The House has in recent weeks taken several votes to protect individual liberties and reverse the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion last month. Now, progressives are pushing to do the same for the court’s landmark climate ruling in West Virginia v. EPA.But they’re facing headwinds from some in their own party who have little interest in cracking open the Clean Air Act in an election year. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is shopping a bill, H.R. 8395, to give EPA the kind of broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants that the Supreme Court stripped away in its decision last month.“The bill itself is very narrow and very tailored,” Ocasio-Cortez said in an interview. “It’s also quite short because all that it seeks to do is to update the language on generational shifting cited by the Supreme Court in their EPA ruling.” The House has taken several recent votes to protect gay marriage and enshrine abortion and contraception rights in response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade last month. The bills united the party against what they believe are unpopular GOP positions, and the gay marriage measure appears to have a shot at passing the Senate. With little chance of passing the evenly split Senate, Ocasio-Cortez’s bill would be more of a messaging effort for Democrats eager to show their displeasure with the court and that they are still acting on climate change, despite the apparent death of their climate legislation in the Senate. But Democrats said reversing the decision in West Virginia v. EPA is a more complicated proposition that could divide their caucus. “First of all, we don’t have the votes in either [chamber] to really do it right,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a progressive member of the House Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview. “And there’s a risk when you open up something like the Clean Air Act in a Congress like this, so I don’t think that’s the wisest path forward.” Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said there’s a difference, at least politically, between protecting fundamental rights that all Democrats agree on and amending a bedrock environmental law to give EPA more authority. “You’ve just got to draft it in a way that is clear enough that you’re going to get the whole caucus because it doesn’t help us if it divides the caucus,” Jayapal told reporters.
Biden vows expanded U.S. role in Mideast as controversial trip ends — Capping a four-day trip to the Middle East, President Biden laid out his vision of a future for the region on Saturday, a framework he hopes amplifies American values and investment in this part of the world — and blunts the influence of Russia and China. The day full of meetings with leaders of Iraq, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and other regional powers was in part an attempt to change a narrative that has been dominated by Biden’s interactions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of the country who has been accused of human rights abuses. “The United States is clear-eyed about the challenges in the Middle East and about where we have the greatest capacity to help drive positive outcomes,” Biden said during his final remarks to a coalition of leaders from the Persian Gulf countries and some neighbors. “We will not walk away and leave the vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran.” But ultimately, it remains unclear whether Biden’s gambit will deliver the results he is seeking. By the time Biden left the Middle East on Saturday afternoon, much of the policy announcements the White House touted were either already in motion or incremental. For Mohammed, who grinned widely as he chaired the leaders’ summit, Biden’s trip delivered what he desperately wanted: a full welcome back to the world stage. For Biden, meanwhile, it could be weeks or months to see whether the renewed ties with Saudi Arabia will fulfill his domestic objectives and outweigh the fierce blowback he faced for taking the trip. In more than four hours of meetings, Biden tried to cover a lot of ground: extending the Yemeni cease-fire; increasing regional food security; addressing the ripples of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy markets; implementing stronger protections for human rights in the region; and addressing the threat of an Iran feared to be seeking nuclear weapons.
Biden concludes Mideast trip focused on US conflict with Russia, China -- US President Joe Biden rounded off his visit to the Middle East with a series of meetings with Arab leaders on Friday and Saturday. While the meetings repaired relations between Riyadh and Washington, no major breakthroughs were announced, with Biden widely seen as having paid a high price for little return. The White House purpose was to reassert Washington’s standing with the region’s bloodthirsty dictators and line them up behind Washington’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. The war that Biden has sought to justify as a war for democracy and human rights against autocracy has met a decidedly cool response from leaders throughout the region, with neither the Saudis nor the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signing on to the US/NATO sanctions on Russia. Biden is also seeking to cement an anti-Iran alliance that would connect air defence systems throughout the region, building on CENTCOM, the US combat command whose base is in Qatar and which covers the Middle East, parts of central Asia, Egypt and the Horn of Africa and has, since early 2021, included Israel. This line-up is not only directed against Russia. It is part of US imperialism’s broader efforts to limit China’s expanding economic and political influence in the energy-rich Middle East. Beijing has become the region’s largest trading and investment partner, outstripping both the US and Europe some years ago. According to the American Enterprise Institute, the last 16 years has seen total Chinese investments and construction projects reached $43.47 billion in Saudi Arabia, $36.16 billion in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), $30.05 billion in Iraq, $11.75 billion in Kuwait, $7.8 billion in Qatar, $6.62 billion in Oman, and $1.42 billion in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has agreed wide-ranging trade and investment deals with both China and Russia. In the context of oil, China already is the Kingdom’s largest customer, with the Saudis recently agreeing to import Russian oil in order to free up its own production, some of which is consumed domestically, particularly in its desalination plants, to increase exports. Egypt, likewise, has extensive agreements with Russia which has started constructing a $25 billion nuclear reactor, while China is playing a major role in the construction of Egypt’s new administrative capital 35 km outside Cairo and has occupied much of the new industrial zone being built along the Suez Canal. Qatar, which has close economic relations with Iran, is negotiating with China over the development of what will be the world’s largest gas field and the multi-year export of its gas to China, while Iran’s deal with China includes major investment in infrastructure in exchange for cheaper oil and naval outposts in the Persian Gulf. Iraq has signed a deal with China to build 1,000 schools in the country over the next two years. At the NATO summit meeting a few weeks ago, Biden’s new “strategic concept” for the Western alliance recognized China as a systemic “challenge” and described its policies as coercive and its cyberoperations around the world as malicious. He said that along with Moscow, Beijing was trying to “subvert the rules-based international order.” In other words, they were opposed to Washington’s political and economic domination. It was this that led Biden to junk his election pledge to treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah state” due to its crushing of all internal dissent with mass executions and Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s signing off on the gruesome assassination of Saudi insider turned dissident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 and grovel before the Saudi ruler. That the visit took place at all was seen as an achievement for the Saudis and above all for bin Salman.
Biden hits back after top Saudi official says he 'did not hear' Biden blame MBS for Khashoggi's murder --President Joe Biden touched down in Washington D.C. just after midnight on Sunday, when he said the Saudi Arabian foreign minister who denied ever hearing Biden confront Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) about Jamal Khashoggi's murder was wrong.After spending several days in the Middle East, Biden landed outside of the White House and answered a few questions from reporters, including one about a recent controversial remark from Saudi Arabia's foreign minister."The Saudi Foreign Minister said he didn’t hear you accuse the Crown Prince of Khashoggi's murder. Is he telling the truth?" the reporter asked."No," Biden swiftly said, before brushing off another reporter who asked about the fist-bump fiasco. "Why don’t you talk about something that matters?" the president added. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Biden told reporters that he had told MBS that he believed the Saudi leader was responsible for Jamal Khashoggi's murder.Khashoggi was a Washington Post contributor who was killed in 2018 by Saudi security officials. The country’s leadership, including MBS, has been suspected to be involved in or approved of the action."With respect to the murder of Khashoggi, I raised it at the top of the meeting, making it clear what I thought of it at the time and what I think about it now," Biden said at a press conference on Friday. Biden said MBS heard him and responded during their meeting. "He [MBS] basically said that he was not personally responsible for it. I indicated that he was, and he said he was not personally responsible for it and he took action against those who were responsible," the president added.
White House confirms plans to send US/NATO jets to fight Russia - In what may be the most provocative escalation of the US-NATO war against Russia to date, the White House has confirmed that the US is planning to send NATO-made fighter jets to Ukraine. John Kirby, the National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, confirmed that the Pentagon is discussing “providing fighter aircraft to the Ukrainians.” Kirby’s statement marks a rejection of the Biden administration’s previous refusal to send fighter aircraft to Ukraine because, in Biden’s words, such a move would lead to “World War III.” Friday’s announcement confirms the earlier statement by Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., that “discussions are ongoing” to send US-NATO fighters to Ukraine. Speaking at the Aspen Security Conference, Brown was asked, “[i]s it possible the U.S could sell or provide Ukraine more U.S fighter platforms?” To this, Brown replied, “[i]t'll be something non-Russian, I could probably tell you that.” In May, the Pentagon rejected an earlier proposal by Poland to send Soviet-made MiG fighters to Ukraine, calling it “high risk.” At the time, Biden declared that the move could start “World War III,” saying, “The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews — just understand, don’t kid yourself, no matter what y’all say, that’s called World War III.” In announcing the Pentagon plan, Kirby said the Pentagon is looking to solve logistical issues including training, maintenance, and spare parts. The Wall Street Journal reported: “A former Pentagon official said F-15 and F-16 fighter jets have been discussed as options for Ukraine, though both aircraft require significant training and maintenance. The former official, now in private industry, says a separate contingent is pushing to get Ukraine A-10s.” Also on Friday, the White House announced a further $270 million in weapons deliveries to Ukraine, in the 16th weapons package since the start of the war. The new package includes four additional HIMARS missile weapons systems, as well as hundreds of phoenix ghost “kamikaze” drones. A clear strategy of the US in the proxy war against Russia is emerging. Washington apparently believes that by abandoning all restraints on the type of weapons systems being deployed to Ukraine, Kiev will be enabled to regain territories lost since the start of the war and achieve their aim, first stated in March 2021 as the official military doctrine, of retaking the entire Donbass (East Ukraine) and the Crimean peninsula in the Black Sea.
Pelosi to Blinken: Label Russia as terrorist state, or else Congress will - Speaker Nancy Pelosi had a message for Secretary of State Antony Blinken: Designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism — otherwise, Congress will. The warning, made on a call between the two earlier this week, was described to POLITICO by two sources familiar with the conversation. Spokespersons for the State Department and Pelosi’s office declined to comment. Congress gave the power to label another country as a state sponsor of terrorism to the secretary of state. Some in Congress, though, say lawmakers could pass a law to make the designation without the State Department, thus pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin on their own. “There’s no legal reason Congress could not pass legislation to effectively designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism,” a Democratic aide said. “Congress passing legislation is obviously a more complicated route than the secretary making the designation, but it would give the administration the political cover it needs to escalate economic pressure and rhetoric against Putin.” Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), for example, introduced a bill in May that would both underline the Senate’s view that Russia engages in acts of terrorism, but it mainly calls on Blinken to make the designation official. They traveled to Kyiv earlier this month to promote the measure alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who supports the U.S. officially placing the label on Russia. A similar resolution was also introduced in the House. Pelosi said Thursday morning that a state sponsor of terrorism designation for Russia is “long overdue.” Pelosi’s comments to Blinken highlight the chasm in the actions lawmakers want the administration to take and what the secretary is comfortable doing. Members of the House and Senate push for the designation, which compels the U.S. government to restrict foreign assistance, curtail defense exports and sales, place controls on exports of dual-use items, and more. The label also “implicates other sanctions laws that penalize persons and countries engaging in certain trade with state sponsors,” per the State Department, meaning the U.S. may have to expand its sanctions much more broadly than specific sectors of the Russian economy. The current four U.S.-designated state sponsors of terrorism — Cuba, North Korea, Iran and Syria — trade far less with the world than Russia does.
Biden on Pelosi trip to Taiwan: ‘The military thinks it's not a good idea’ -President Joe Biden said, “The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now,” when asked Wednesday whether House Speaker Nancy Pelosi should take a planned trip to Taiwan, according to pool reports. “But I don’t know what the status of it is,” the president said. Biden also said he expects to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping in the next 10 days. Pelosi was planning to visit Taiwan next month, according to two sources. It would be the first visit to the country by a House speaker since Newt Gingrich in 25 years. It’s not clear if Biden’s words will lead to Pelosi canceling or rescheduling her trip. The trip would come amid tensions between the United States and China near the island, weeks after a Chinese fighter jet had an “unsafe” interaction with a U.S. aircraft over the South China Sea. Beijing opposes Pelosi visiting the island. A spokesperson for their Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the trip would harshly impact U.S.-China relations. “It would seriously violate the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-U.S. joint communiquĂ©s and harm China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Tuesday. China has considered Taiwan part of its territory since Mao Zedong established a communist state on the mainland in 1949 and nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan. The U.S. did not recognize the mainland’s government until the 1970s; since then, American governments have had awkward, indirect relationships with Taiwan.
US Destroyer Enters China-Claimed Waters For 3rd Time In A Week Ahead Of Pelosi Taiwan Trip - The USS Benfold has traversed China-claimed waters for the third time in a week, passing through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday after China complained about US Navy "illegal" maneuvers near islands under its control in the South China Sea.Beijing again blasted it as a serious "provocation" demonstrating that the US is a "destroyer of peace and stability" - in repetition of prior condemnations. It follows a more rare July 13 incident wherein the US destroyer entered waters off the Chinese military occupied Paracel Islands, and then last Saturday a sail-by of the Spratly Islands.The US Navy's 7th Fleet again affirmed "commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific," and that the US destroyer has challenged China's "excessive maritime claims". A Navy spokesman, Lt. Nicholas Lingo Benfold, said the transit occurred "through a corridor in the strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state."China in turn, said its Eastern Theater Command closely monitored the ship's movement, citing "risks" to Chinese national security:"The frequent provocations and showing-off by the US fully demonstrate that the US is the destroyer of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the creator of security risks in the Taiwan Strait," said Col. Shi Yi, spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command. "The theater troops maintain high alert at all times and will resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity."The Navy's interpretation is that it never violated the 12 nautical miles extending from China's coastline; however, Beijing has over the last month begun openly questioning to US officials that the "international waters" designation doesn't apply to the strait (given Chinese claims over the island of Taiwan)."Chinese officials have made such remarks repeatedly in meetings with US counterparts in recent months," Bloomberg reported in June. The international legal status of the passageway wasn't previously center of debate as it is now:While China regularly protests US military moves in the Taiwan Strait, the legal status of the waters previously wasn’t a regular talking point in meetings with American officials.Looming large in the background of all this is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's reported upcoming trip to Taiwan. Though not "official" yet, Politico and others are citing sources who say the trip will happen in August, after in April she canceled last minute, reportedly over a Covid diagnosis.
Why suspected Chinese spy gear remains in America’s telecom networks - The U.S. is still struggling to complete the break up with Chinese telecom companies that Donald Trump started four years ago. The problem: Small communications networks, largely in rural areas, are saddled with old Chinese equipment they can’t afford to remove and which they can’t repair if it breaks. The companies say they want to ditch the Chinese tech, but promised funds from Congress aren’t coming quickly enough and aren’t enough to cover the cost. U.S. security officials have warned under both the Trump and Biden administrations that two Chinese companies in particular — Huawei and ZTE — are beholden to China’s government and a major national security risk. They have pointed to a potential for spying and foreign meddling if their routers, antennas and radios aren’t yanked out of U.S. cell phone and internet networks. Caught in the middle of this U.S.-China wrangling are nearly 200 U.S. carriers that embedded parts from these Chinese telecom giants into their operations. That includes rural wireless networks and providers of broadband internet and TV, a handful of universities and school districts and even city governments. The funding shortage is complicating the launch of subsidies and stoking worries that this long-awaited task of ripping out this gear could face delay into 2023 or beyond, undercutting the urgency around a long-held national security fear that the Chinese government could access the equipment to listen in on calls or even interfere with critical infrastructure or military operations. The logistical strains also threaten American businesses as President Joe Biden and Democrats defend their broader agenda, especially in rural America, ahead of the November midterms. The Federal Communications Commission revealed last week that it’ll cost $3.08 billion more than the $1.9 billion originally allocated to pay U.S. companies to ditch Huawei and ZTE.
Reject CPTPP, Stay Out of New Cold War -- Joining or ratifying dubious trade deals is supposed to offer miraculous solutions to recent lacklustre economic progress. Such naĂŻve advocacy is misleading at best, and downright irresponsible, even reckless, at worst.US President Barack Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ after his 2012 re-election sought to check China’s sustained economic growth and technological progress. Its economic centrepiece was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).But the US International Trade Commission (ITC) doubted the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) and other exaggerated claims of significant TPP economic benefits in mid-2016, well before US President Donald Trump’s election.The ITC report found projected TPP growth gains to be paltry over the long-term. Its finding was in line with the earlier 2014 findings of the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture.Meanwhile, many US manufacturing jobs have been lost to corporations automating and relocating abroad. Worse, Trump’s rhetoric has greatly transformed US public discourse. Many Americans now blame globalization, immigration, foreigners and, increasingly, China for the problems they face.The TPP was believed to be dead and buried after Trump withdrew the US from it immediately after his inauguration in January 2017. After all, most aspirants in the November 2016 election – including Hillary Clinton, once a TPP cheerleader – had opposed it in the presidential campaign.Trump National Economic Council director Gary Cohn has accused presidential confidantes of ‘dirty tactics’ to escalate the trade war with China.Cohn acknowledged “he didn’t quit over the tariffs, per se, but rather because of the totally shady, ratfucking way Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and economic adviser Peter Navarro went about convincing the president to implement them.”Cohn, previously Goldman Sachs president, insisted it “was a terrible idea that would only hurt the US, and not extract the concessions from Beijing Trump wanted, or do anything to shrink the trade deficit.”But US allies against China, the Japanese, Australian and Singapore governments have tried to keep the TPP alive. First, they mooted ‘TPP11’ – without the USA.This was later rebranded the Comprehensive and Progressive TPP (CPTPP), with no new features to justify its ‘progressive’ pretensions. Following its earlier support for the TPP, the PIIE has been the principal cheerleader for the CPTPP in the West.Although US President Joe Biden was loyal as Vice-President, he did not make any effort to revive Obama’s TPP initiative during his campaign, or since entering the White House. Apparently, re-joining the TPP is politically impossible in the US today. Panning the Trump approach, Biden’s US Trade Representative has stressed, “Addressing the China challenge will require a comprehensive strategy and more systematic approach than the piecemeal approach of the recent past.” Now, instead of backing off from Trump’s belligerent approach, the US will go all out.
Taibbi: The Great American Military Rebrand - by Matt Taibbi - As January 6th hearings, a presidential fist-bump, and a Kardashian spawn’s gender reveal gobbled attention, the House quietly passed a monster $839 billion defense package. It was “the definition of a bipartisan bill,” chirped Alabama’s Mike Rogers, as 180 Democrats and 149 Republicans joined to smash by tens of billions previous records for military spending. With this already underreported story, just one news outlet, Roll Call, described a “first of its kind” report published by the Department of Defense Comptroller’s office, which revealed at least $58 billion of “congressional additions” above Joe Biden’s budget request.As former Senate aide and defense budget analyst Winslow Wheeler puts it, these “additions” are “not (all) earmarks under either the House’s or Senate’s shriveled definition of them, but they are all earmarks… under the classic understanding.” What’s in those requests? As Roll Call’s Donnelly explains, the $58 billion included “money to respond to disasters and the war in Ukraine,” but also:Billions of dollars in weapons the military did not seek, such as more than $4 billion worth of unrequested warships, many of them built by the constituents of senior appropriators.This felt like Duke Cunningham days, back with a vengeance. The $58 billion revealed by the Department of Defense only pertained to “congressional increases” larger than $20 million. I asked the DoD to ask if they also counted smaller appropriations. So far, they’ve declined to comment, but according to several sources (and Roll Call), the actual amount of “additions” is almost surely far higher than $58 billion.Both the triumphant return of the earmark and the enormous defense hike should have been big stories. To put $58 billion (at least) in defense “increases” in context, the amount of overall federal earmarks in 2006, the infamous year that prompted so much outrage, was said to be $26 billion. Meanwhile Biden’s one-year arms increase exceeds the pace of Donald Trump’s infamous $200 billion collective defense hike between 2017-2019. These are major surges past the levels of both pork and weapons spending that had progressives roaring for “change,” yet there’s almost zero outcry now. Why? It feels like just the latest echo in a prolonged, very successful re-marketing effort. In 2008, disdain for the “War on Terror” propelled Barack Obama past Hillary Clinton, and failures in Afghanistan and other factors after Obama’s election soon led to the ultimate Beltway horror, i.e. proposed budget cuts. A Reuters story from early 2011 details the misery gripping the Pentagon after Obama suggested cutting $78 billion:The proposed cuts, unveiled at a somber Pentagon briefing on Thursday, follow increased White House and congressional scrutiny of military spending, which has doubled in real terms since the September 11, 2001, attacks. From that point, however, the U.S. embarked upon what geopolitical analyst Christopher Mott calls the “millennial rebrand of the neoconservative project,” and the Pentagon’s fortunes rose anew. In the Obama years, think-tankers, pundits, and other actors began to push inverted, left-friendly versions of Bush’s rejected military utopianism, this time focusing on using force to achieve social justice aims abroad. It worked, brilliantly.
Biden issues executive order aimed at releasing American hostages and detainees - President Joe Biden on Tuesday issued an executive order aimed at repatriating American hostages and other U.S. citizens wrongfully detained abroad. The action allows federal agencies to impose consequences — such as financial sanctions — on parties involved in hostage-taking or wrongful detentions; authorizes parts of the U.S. government to share relevant information with families regarding the individuals’ status and U.S. efforts to secure their release or return; and taps experts to develop strategies to deter future hostage-taking and wrongful detentions. The administration also announced that it was adding a “D” indicator to the State Department’s travel advisories, alerting American travelers of the risk of wrongful detention by a foreign government. “This additional risk indicator will highlight the elevated risk that Americans face in particular countries and provide Americans with comprehensive safety and security information with which to make informed travel decisions,” a senior administration official said. The moves come as Americans imprisoned overseas from Russia to China make headlines — putting pressure on the administration to take action. Advocates have repeatedly called for the release of WNBA all-star Brittney Griner, who has been detained in Russia since February on cannabis possession charges. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with Griner’s wife, Cherelle Griner, this month, after she wrote a letter to the White House asking Biden to do more to bring the American basketball player home.
Nancy Pelosi Urges Support Of $50 Billion 'CHIPS' Bill Hours After Disclosing $8 Million Nvidia Stake -- Oh, look: Nancy Pelosi is pushing legislation that stands to benefit her significantly thanks to a couple of brand new, multi-million dollar trades she has made. Stop us if you've heard this one before... This past week it hit the terminal that House Speaker Pelosi was doing a little portfolio re-jiggering, including exercising $8 million of call options in Nvidia and selling Apple and Visa calls. The data was per CongressTrading.com and was reported on by Bloomberg. The Nvidia LEAPS were bought June 3, 2021 with $100 strikes, set to expire June 17, 2022 and the position appeared to be disclosed on Thursday morning for the first time. $8 million trades seem a little odd for members of Congress to begin with, but who are we to judge? But then, what did Speaker Pelosi do just hours after disclosing the trade, on Friday? She threw her weight behind a stalled $50 billion CHIPS PLUS bill that "would provide $52 billion in funding for semiconductor manufacturing grants and investment tax credits for the chip industry," according to RollCall.com. Pelosi said last week: “We had been working constantly on the chips bill. And we need to have the transformative nature of research and education and the rest to make us continue to be preeminent in the world. How it shapes up in the next short period of time, we’ll see. But we are determined that we will pass a bill.”"Democrats are 'more interested in' a chips-plus bill than a chips-only measure," Pelosi added, according to the Roll Call report. . Let us guess: the unrealized gains tax won't be supported by Pelosi until she cashes out of the market altogether, either...
Homeland Security records show 'shocking' use of phone data, ACLU says - The Trump administration’s immigration enforcers used mobile location data to track people’s movements on a larger scale than previously known, according to documents that raise new questions about federal agencies’ efforts to get around restrictions on warrantless searches. The data, harvested from apps on hundreds of millions of phones, allowed the Department of Homeland Security to obtain data on more than 336,000 location data points across North America, the documents show. Those data points may reference only a small portion of the information that CBP has obtained. These data points came from all over the continent, including in major cities like Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Denver, Toronto and Mexico City. This location data use continued into the Biden administration, as Customs and Border Protection renewed a contract for $20,000 that ended in September 2021. The American Civil Liberties Union obtained the records from DHS through a lawsuit it filed in 2020. It provided the documents to POLITICO and separately released them to the public on Monday. The documents highlight conversations and contracts between federal agencies and the surveillance companies Babel Street and Venntel. Venntel alone boasts that its database includes location information from more than 250 million devices. The documents also show agency staff having internal conversations about privacy concerns on using phone location data. In just three days in 2018, the documents show that the CBP collected data from more than 113,000 locations from phones in the Southwestern United States — equivalent to more than 26 data points per minute — without obtaining a warrant. The documents highlight the massive scale of location data that government agencies including CBP and ICE received, and how the agencies sought to take advantage of the mobile advertising industry’s treasure trove of data. “It was definitely a shocking amount,” said Shreya Tewari, the Brennan fellow for the ACLU’s Speech, Privacy and Technology Project. “It was a really detailed picture of how they can zero in on not only a specific geographic area, but also a time period, and how much they’re collecting and how quickly.” DHS did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The location data industry is an estimated $12 billion market, made up of hundreds of apps that collect location data, data brokers who trade that information among each other, and buyers who look to use that data for purposes such as advertising and law enforcement. Because the U.S. has no federal privacy laws to rein the industry in, location data sales have gone largely unchecked for the past decade and allowed data brokers to sell millions of people’s whereabouts to whoever’s buying. Location data has been sold in the past to help the U.S. military identify Muslim populations and was available on Planned Parenthood visitors. A blog also used location data to out a gay priest in 2021. In 2020, The Wall Street Journal revealed that federal agencies including DHS, ICE and CBP were using commercial location data for immigration enforcement. The documents published by the ACLU on Monday give a glimpse into just how much location data these agencies obtained, and how they viewed using that information. “Venntel has a mobile location data intelligence platform that leverages the unclassified, commercially available mobile advertising ecosystem,”
Texas plan to deport migrants violates federal authority - Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s July 7 executive order clearing state authorities to return apprehended migrants to the US-Mexico border has raised alarms among immigration lawyers and advocates, who say the order raises a number of legal questions. Abbott’s directive grants the Texas National Guard and Department of Public Safety (DPS) the authority to arrest migrants suspected of illegally crossing the border or committing “other violations of federal law.” It also empowers state officials to return apprehended migrants to ports of entry—stopping just short of using state resources to expel migrants from the country, as far-right forces have increasingly called for in recent months. The order came two days after former Trump officials and right-wing officials in sparsely populated counties in South Texas called on Abbott to declare that Texas is facing an “invasion” and invoke emergency powers reserved for war to directly deport migrants. Texas lawmakers have utilized the death of dozens of migrants found in a truck trailer in San Antonio last month to justify a further crackdown on immigration. An hour before the bodies were discovered in his district, Texas Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales tweeted that immigration was “incentivizing lawlessness and creating absolute chaos at our southern border.” Abbott directly blamed Biden for the deaths, tweeting: “They are a result of his deadly open border policies. They show the deadly consequences of his refusal to enforce the law.” Although Texas has implemented numerous reactionary anti-immigrant laws and programs in the past, Abbott’s most recent order is the most extreme move yet, signaling an open defiance of the federal government’s authority to enforce immigration law. The American Civil Liberties Union of Texas said in a statement that the order is “vicious and unlawful,” and “recklessly fans the flames of hate in our state.”
How aggressive border control tactics in Texas contributed to inaction during Uvalde shooting --Robb Elementary students were used to lockdowns. From February to May, the school in Uvalde, Texas, had been secured or locked down 47 times. When a lockdown alert came May 24 – the day an 18-year-old shooterkilled 19 students and two teachers – many administrators, teachers and law enforcement responders initially assumed it was like the 47 other lockdowns, according to a report by the Texas House of Representatives outlining the most grievous failures during the shooting response. Lockdowns fostered a culture of complacency at the school, the report said. Almost all – 90% – of the security alerts earlier in the year came from “bailout” situations, when vehicles smuggling migrants lead authorities on high-speed chases that end when the vehicle crashes and the occupants scatter, the report said. Texas police and city leaders said the school lockdowns were necessary because of the dangerous nature of bailouts. Some experts said aggressive border control tactics contribute to hazardous pursuits, and there is little evidence that the general public is at risk from the migrants. Data on bailouts is sparse, but more than half of U.S. Customs and Border Protection encounters with migrants this fiscal year occurred in Texas, according to CBP data.School lockdowns in response to bailouts are common practice throughout Texas but happen more often in border communities, said North Richland Hills Police Chief Jimmy Perdue, president of the Texas Police Chiefs Association. “It's good law enforcement practice that if you have a bailout situation near a school, you’re going to lock down the school for safety and security reasons," Perdue told USA TODAY. "And if you do that, if you're in an area where this occurs on a regular frequent basis, then you're going to have complacency set in.” The bailout alarms sounded so frequently at Robb Elementary that when Uvalde Police Sgt. Daniel Coronado walked into the school May 24 during the shooting and didn’t immediately see injured students in the hallway, he believed it was probably a bailout situation, he testified.
Adams claims Texas, Arizona busing asylum seekers to New York - — Mayor Eric Adams is attributing a surge in the city’s homeless shelter population to asylum seekers being bused into New York from other parts of the country — citing 2,800 people entering the system in recent weeks.Adams called on the White House for assistance Tuesday — without which, he said, the city “may struggle to provide the proper level of support our clients deserve.”There were 48,188 people sleeping in Department of Homeless Services shelters on a recent night, up from about 45,000 three months ago, according to city figures. A spokesperson for the agency said asylum seekers are the major driver behind the spike over these months, but said the 2,800 people cited by the mayor have come in over roughly the past six weeks.Adams said the asylum seekers are arriving from Latin America and other regions, and in some instances, being sent in on buses by the federal government and the state governments of Texas and Arizona.“In order to both meet the legal mandate as a right-to-shelter city and provide high-quality shelter and services for those who enter our system, New York City needs additional federal resources immediately,” Adams said in a statement on Tuesday.New York City is legally required to provide shelter to everyone who needs it.The U.S. has seen record levels of migrant arrivals along the southern border in recent months.
Supreme Court denies Biden bid to revive DHS immigration policy -The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a Biden administration request to reinstate a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration enforcement policy that was blocked by a lower court, with the justices scheduling the case for arguments in December. The court’s vote was 5-4, with four members — liberal Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Ketanji Brown Jackson and Elena Kagan and conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett — indicating they would have sided with the administration by temporarily blocking the lower court order as the case plays out. At issue is DHS guidance from last September that directed immigration officers to prioritize certain groups of undocumented immigrants for deportation over others, with a focus on those who pose a threat to public safety or national security. The policy also directed officers to make a more comprehensive assessment of noncitizens before proceeding with an arrest or removal. The policy drew several lawsuits, including a challenge by Texas and Louisiana that secured a legal victory in the lower courts. A Trump-appointed U.S. judge in Texas sided with the challengers last month, vacating the DHS policy after concluding it failed to follow federal immigration law. The Biden administration was rebuffed when it asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit to block the district court’s judgment, prompting the administration’s request to the Supreme Court. “That judgment is thwarting the Secretary’s direction of the Department he leads and disrupting DHS’s efforts to focus its limited resources on the noncitizens who pose the gravest threat to national security, public safety, and the integrity of our Nation’s borders,” the administration told the justices in court papers. The Supreme Court’s order Thursday denying the administration’s stay request also treated its court filing as a formal petition for appeal, which the justices granted. The court scheduled the case for a hearing for the first week of December, the third month of the court’s next term.
Fauci says he’ll step down after Biden’s term, warns US will have to ‘live with’ COVID -Dr. Anthony Fauci, the face of America’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, said in an interview published Monday that he would step down by the end of President Biden’s term — and warned that the US would be fighting the virus for decades to come. “We’re in a pattern now. If somebody says, ‘You’ll leave when we don’t have COVID anymore,’ then I will be 105. I think we’re going to be living with this,” Fauci, 81, told Politico when asked if he feels an obligation to remain in his posts as White House chief medical adviser and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases — which he has headed since 1984.He reiterated his intention to step down in the coming months to the Washington Post in a separate interview.“By the time we get to the end of the Biden administration term, I feel it would be time for me to step down from this position,” Fauci said.Fauci, who has served seven presidential administrations in his more than five-decade career in federal service, overcame his own bout with the coronavirus in mid-June despite being quadruple-vaccinated and sounded the alarm about the latest Omicron variant, BA.5, that has prompted an increase in cases. At a White House briefing last week, Fauci warned Americans that even if they’ve been vaccinated or have recovered after being infected, they are still at risk.“Immunity wanes, whether that’s immunity following infection or immunity following vaccine,” he said at the time.“If you were infected with [variant] BA.1, you really don’t have a lot of good protection against BA.4/5,” added Fauci, referring to the most recent two Omicron strains that have been fueling the recent outbreaks.
Hey, Team Biden: Enough with the COVID emergency declarations! --Dr. Anthony Fauci may be retiring, but he’s casting a long shadow. On Friday, President Joe Biden’s Department of Health and Human Services quietly re-upped the public-health emergency determination for COVID, much in the spirit of Fauci’s never-ending alarmism.The Trump administration first declared a COVID-related public-health emergency on Jan. 31, 2020 — back when we knew almost nothing about the coronavirus. Trump HHS Secretary Alex Azar renewed it four times, and counting Friday, Biden’s HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra’s has renewed it another six times. Becerra claims “a public-health emergency exists and has existed since Jan. 27, 2020, nationwide.”The HHS boss is merely a top power-broker in a power-hungry, nanny-state administration. Biden wants to keep exerting ever-more control over our lives. That should come as no surprise, of course, as his White House continues down the path of toxic policymaking that will harm more than it helps; negative unintended consequences are the hallmark of progressive ideology. But it’s long past time to move beyond COVID emergency declarations. Aside from perpetuating needless worry, what Becerra’s order means in practice — as the Kaiser Family Foundation reports — is that public and private COVID health-care coverage will continue to be more expensive as taxpayers and consumers shell out billions of dollars for COVID-related treatments under emergency mandates that make these treatments “free” to patients but not to taxpayers or private employers. It will also fuel health-care inflation, while continued liability immunity for pharmacists and other vaccine providers will make medical malpractice harder to root out. Meanwhile, the prez’s iron-fisted transportation mask mandate was rejected by courts, and businesses are removing mask and vaccine mandates. Widespread natural immunity, vaccines and the virus’ natural evolution have brought COVID risk under control. Americans are picking up the pieces of theirshattered mental health and school-learning loss from perpetual COVID lockdowns. Biden promised to restore normalcy and to defeat COVID. Instead, he’s given us eternal COVID, volatility and erratic decision-making. Doubly aggravating is the Biden White House’s utter hypocrisy as his team tries to repeal Title 42, the public-health measure put into place by the Trump administration to prevent the spread of COVID by illegal immigrants.
Biden Tests Positive for COVID-19, White House Announces - President Joe Biden has tested positive for COVID-19, the White House announced on Thursday.White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement that Biden, who tested positive on Thursday morning is "experiencing very mild symptoms" and "has begun taking Paxlovid," an antiviral drug. Biden's physician Kevin O'Connor said in a memo that Biden's symptoms are fatigue, a runny nose, and a dry cough that began Wednesday evening. "The President is fully vaccinated and twice-boosted, so I anticipate that he will respond favorably, as most maximally protected patients do," O'Connor wrote.Biden tested positive one day after traveling to Massachusetts and Rhode Island to discuss climate change, and four days after returning from an action-packed overseas trip to the Middle East that included meetings with world leaders like Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lipid in Jerusalem and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah. Biden rode Air Force One to and from New England with Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey of Massachusetts, as well as Reps. Bill Keating and Jake Auchincloss, who posed for photos with Biden on the plane. On the ground, he appeared with elected officialsincluding Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee and Sen. Sheldon White House of Rhode Island.First Lady Jill Biden tested negative on Thursday morning, her office told Politico, and still plans to make scheduled trips to Georgia and Michigan that are part of her summer learning tourwith Education Secretary Miguel Cardona. Vice President Kamala Harris, who previously recovered from a COVID-19 case in the spring, had no planned events on her schedule for Thursday. Biden received his first two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in December 2020 and January 2021, and received two Pfizer booster shots in September 2021 and March 2022, making his case a so-called breakthrough infection.
Biden has tested positive for COVID-19 and is fully vaccinated and boosted. Just 22.7% of Americans his age have kept up to date with their shots - President Joe Biden who is fully boosted and vaccinated tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, becoming the second US president to get infected by the virus.And as the country sees a steady rise in daily new COVID-19 infections, just 22.7% of Americans in his age bracket have kept up to date with their vaccination shots, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Biden, who is 79 years old, falls under the "65+ Years" category which the CDC says consists of nearly 55 million Americans. Of that population, just 12.5 million have received their second booster shot.In a Thursday statement, the White House said Biden has begun taking the treatment drug Paxlovid.US health officials have continued to stress the importance of staying up to date on COVID-19 vaccinations as the country battles a rise in cases fueled by the infectious Omicron subvariant BA. 5, which infectious disease experts say can reinfect those who already had COVID-19.The country is averaging over 126,000 daily new COVID-19 cases, according to CDC data, a steady rise from a recent low of 24,000 daily new cases in late March.The March lull came after the country saw record infections from the original Omicron variant during the winter months.
Biden’s whereabouts in the week leading up to his Covid diagnosis - After a week spent traveling across the Middle East and meeting with world leaders, President Joe Biden tested positive for Covid-19 on Thursday. The president’s schedule in the days leading to his diagnosis was not short of meetings and events, and he didn’t hold back from using direct contact in his greetings — doling out handshakes and fist bumps to his counterparts across the region. Biden, who is fully vaccinated and double boosted, is experiencing “very mild symptoms,” such as a runny nose and fatigue, that began Wednesday evening, according to the White House. First lady Jill Biden tested negative for the virus Thursday morning, as did Vice President Kamala Harris. But Biden interacted with many other leaders in the week leading up to his positive test result, raising the question of who would be considered a close contact to the president. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines a close contact as someone who was less than 6 feet away from a person with known or suspected Covid starting two days before the infected person developed symptoms. A person would also be a close contact if they were “in the presence of someone with confirmed or suspected Covid-19 for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period.” POLITICO has mapped out the seven days leading to the president’s positive test, what he was doing and who he came in contact with. Here’s the rundown:
Supreme Court Clears Way for Indiana to Restrict Access to Abortion For Minors - The Supreme Court in an order released Monday allowed Indiana to move forward with a law that requires parents to be notified if a minor is seeking an abortion. The 2017 rule had been blocked by lower courts for violating Supreme Court precedent while Roe v. Wade remained the law of the land and is among the latest to take shape in the shakeout from the Supreme Court’s massive reversal of precedent late last month when it ruled on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. With the ruling overturning Roe, Indiana asked the Supreme Court to expedite its decision on the case, arguing that “immediate transmittal of this Court’s judgment is necessary to avoid inflicting further irreparable harm to the State of Indiana.” On Monday, Chief Justice John Roberts granted Indiana’s request in a procedural order, expediting the transmission of its ruling in Dobbs to a federal appeals court. The justices’ decision to overturn the landmark 1973 decision returned the issue to the states, where at least seven have in under a month banned abortion with limited exceptions, while another handful of states have severly restricted the procedure. In a few other states, legal battles or confusion over state laws has forced providers to stop offering the procedure altogether. But the number of states banning or severely restricting access to abortion is only expected to grow, with at least 26 states expected to ban the procedure in the coming months now that Roe no longer stands in their way. The development in Indiana comes after reports in recent days that a 10-year-old had been raped and was denied the procedure in Ohio, where a ban on abortions once a fetal heartbeat is detected took effect early this month, and traveled to Indiana.
One in 10 abortions performed on people who had to travel out of state, report finds – Even before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thousands of people were traveling across state lines to access abortion care. In 2020, almost one in every 10 people trying to get an abortion traveled outside of their home state for service, according to a new report from the Guttmacher Institute, one of the country’s leading non-governmental institutions studying reproductive rights. Study crafters found that 81,120 out of the 930,160 abortions — or 9 percent — that took place in 2020 were obtained by people traveling outside of their state of residence. That number is 3 percentage points higher than what researchers calculated for 2011, and experts believe more people will seek abortion care outside of their home state now that the federal right to the procedure has been undone. The same report found that the sharpest increase in abortion seekers traveling out of state for services occurred in states hostile to abortion. In the 29 states labeled by Guttmacher as “hostile to abortion rights,” residents who traveled out of state to seek care increased from 9 percent in 2011 to 15 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, in more “middle-ground” states, the number of people who traveled across state lines for abortion care increased slightly less, from 6 percent to 9 percent between those same years. That increase was even more slight in states that are generally supportive of abortion rights, where the number of residents who traveled out of state for care only went up by one percentage point, from 2 percent in 2011 to 3 percent in 2020, the report found. Crafters believe that uptick in abortion seekers who will have to leave their home states to access care will continue to go up now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned and more state-level steps have been taken to ban abortions. Early research has found that tightened abortion restrictions, such as Texas’s ban, are forcing people to travel out of state for care. But more comprehensive data after 2020 is needed to officially determine this, the report states. Last year, Texas lawmakers passed a bill banning abortion at 6 weeks. After its implementation, 1,400 people were forced to travel out of state for an abortion, the institute said. In the 26 states the Guttmacher Institute determined were likely or certain to ban abortion after the overturning of Roe, 15 percent of residents had to travel out of state for care in 2020. And out of those 15 percent, 46 percent traveled to states that have now banned or restricted abortion care or will do so in the foreseeable future, according to the report.
Sarah Jacobs, AOC and 15 More Congress Members Arrested at Abortion Rights Protest – Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-San Diego, was among 35 people -- including 17 members of Congress -- who were arrested Tuesday during an abortion rights protest outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington D.C.According to U.S. Capitol Police, demonstrators were arrested for "crowding, obstructing or incommoding," which refers to blocking the use of a street."Demonstrators are starting to block First Street, NE," the police department said in a tweeted statement during the demonstration. "It is against the law to block traffic, so officers are going to give our standard three warnings before they start making arrests."The lawmakers and others -- many of whom wore green bandannas now synonymous with the abortion rights movement -- gathered to protest last month's Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.Jacobs took to Twitter regarding the protest Tuesday morning, writing "I won't stop fighting to protect reproductive health care, including the right to an abortion, and I will proudly put my body on the line to make it clear just how urgently we need to act." Others arrested include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo. and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass. They are expected to be released and fined.
Could Congress impeach Supreme Court justices for perjury? -The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last month to overturn the 50-year constitutional right to abortion prompted an outcry from activists who said they were misled during the justices’ confirmation hearings.Conservative Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade in a 5-4 vote, have been accused of misleading the public and members of the Senate about their intentions during their respective confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee.The calls to impeach the justices for misleading the public have been led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who last month said that “there must be consequences” for upending democratic institutions with false statements.“If we allow Supreme Court nominees to lie under oath and secure lifetime appointments to the highest court of the land and then issue — without basis, if you read these opinions — rulings that deeply undermine the human civil rights of the majority of Americans, we must see that through,” she said on NBC.Several other House Democrats have joined in the calls to get answers on whether the justices misled the public about overturning Roe.Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), however, said removing a justice is “not realistic” when he was asked if Justice Clarence Thomas should be impeached.The House can file articles of impeachment for a federal judge with a majority vote, but the Senate must secure a two-thirds majority vote to remove a judge. As a result, any impeachment effort for a Supreme Court justice would face an uphill battle. Democrats now have 50 Senate seats, but not all 50 of those Democrats would be likely to vote to impeach a Supreme Court justice.
House passes legislation to enshrine a right to contraception in federal law — The House voted 228-195 largely along party lines Thursday to pass legislation to codify the right to contraception nationwide, seeking to protect it from potential Supreme Court intervention.The Right To Contraception Act, sponsored by Rep. Kathy Manning, D-N.C., would establish a right in federal law for individuals to obtain and use contraceptives. It would also affirm a right for health care providers to provide contraceptives and allow the Justice Department and entities harmed by contraception restrictions to seek enforcement of the right in court.Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., said the United States is facing "a perilous time, where an extremist Supreme Court and the GOP are rolling back our rights."Democratic leaders said they were spurred to act by Justice Clarence Thomas' concurring opinion in the ruling overturning Roe v. Wade,who wrote that the Supreme Court should also revisit decisions like 1965 Griswold v. Connecticut, which prohibited states from banning contraceptives and "correct the error" it made.Rep. Ann Kuster, D-N.H., said that the "overturning of Roe v. Wade was a wake-up call" and that Congress could not leave other rights like that of contraception "up to chance," saying it is "none of the government's business."Only eight Republicans voted with all 220 Democrats on the bill: Liz Cheney of Wyoming, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio, John Katko of New York, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Nancy Mace of South Carolina, Maria Salazar of Florida and Fred Upton of Michigan. Republican Reps. Bob Gibbs of Ohio and Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania voted “present.”"Democrats are spreading fear and misinformation to score political points," said Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, the top Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
House Moves to Protect Same-Sex Marriage From Supreme Court Reversal - — The House on Tuesday passed a bill that would recognize same-sex marriages at the federal level, with a bipartisan coalition supporting a measure that addresses growing concerns that a conservative Supreme Court could nullify marriage equality.Forty-seven Republicans joined Democrats in backing the bill, the Respect for Marriage Act, which would codify the federal protections for same-sex couples that were put in place in 2015, when the Supreme Court ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges established same-sex marriage as a right under the 14th Amendment.It is a direct answer to Justice Clarence Thomas’s concurring opinion in last month’s ruling that overturned federal abortion rights, in which he wrote that Obergefell and similar cases should be reconsidered.The support among House Republicans, although far from a majority, was remarkable in a party that for decades has made social conservatism a litmus test, and it suggested the beginnings of a shift in Congress that mirrors a broader acceptance of same-sex marriage as settled law.The party’s leaders split on the bill. The top two Republicans, Representatives Kevin McCarthy of California and Steve Scalise of Louisiana, voted no. But the No. 3 Republican, Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, and Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the G.O.P. campaign committee chairman, were in favor. Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming also voted for the bill.Still, more than three quarters of the party opposed the bill, which passed in a vote of 267 to 157. The measure faces an uncertain path in the evenly divided Senate, where it was not clear if it could draw the support of the 10 Republicans needed to move it forward. But Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the minority leader, declined on Tuesday to state a position on the bill.House Democratic leaders opted to move forward with the bill after the Supreme Court’s decision overturning abortion rights raised worries about the prospect that the justices might revisit cases that affirmed same-sex marriage rights and the right to contraception. The debate in Congress thrust the issue into the midterm election campaign, where Democrats are eager to draw a distinction between their party’s support for L.G.B.T.Q. rights and opposition by many Republicans.
47 House Republicans vote to write same-sex marriage into law - Nearly 50 House Republicans voted to write same-sex marriage into law Tuesday, joining all Democrats in a heavily bipartisan vote that would’ve been considered unthinkable a decade ago.Democrats loudly cheered from their side of the chamber as the bill passed 267-157, with 47 Republicans backing it, including members of GOP leadership such as Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and National Republican Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) voted no.“This bill makes crystal clear that every couple and their children has the fundamental freedom to take pride in their marriage and have their marriage respected under the law,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in floor remarks.A 2015 Supreme Court decision required states to recognize same-sex marriages, but Democrats urged a codification of the policy in the wake of the court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade last month. In a concurring decision,Justice Clarence Thomas voiced support for reconsidering the court’s earlier same-sex marriage ruling.The short bill, which faces an uncertain path in the 50-50 Senate, would repeal the Defense of Marriage Act passed in 1996 that defined marriage as a union between one man and one woman. It would also require states to recognize same-sex marriages, as long as it was valid in the state in which it occurred. Many Republicans who voted to approve the bill hail from the younger ranks of their party. Other notable yeses included Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.).
Jan. 6 committee subpoenas Secret Service amid text message controversy - The Jan. 6 select committee has subpoenaed the Secret Service following a string of conflicts with the agency and revelations that a large swath of text messages sent by agents on the day of the Capitol attack have been erased. The move marks the first time the select committee has publicly announced the subpoena of an Executive Branch agency and comes the same day the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general privately briefed committee members on the discovery of the missing text messages. The subpoena, directed at agency director James Murray — who is retiring later this month — demands the production of records by July 19. “The Select Committee seeks the relevant text messages, as well as any after action reports that have been issued in any and all divisions of the USSS pertaining or relating in any way to the events of January 6, 2021,” Chairman Bennie Thompson said in a letter accompanying the subpoena. Committee members emerging from the DHS briefing said they were awaiting details about whether the inspector general will be able to obtain any of the missing messages. “We’re interested in getting the texts from the Secret Service that happened on the fifth and sixth and we want to get the IG’s perspective on what he thought was going on,” Thompson told reporters Friday. The Secret Service has rejected any suggestion of inappropriate actions. A spokesman said Thursday the missing messages were attributable to an agency-wide phone upgrade that was in progress before the agency’s inspector general requested access to them. The spokesman, Anthony Guglielmi, noted that the Secret Service provided more than 700,000 Jan. 6-related emails and thousands of internal communications to investigators. “The January 6th Select Committee has had our full and unwavering cooperation since its inception,” the Secret Service said in a statement Saturday.
Luria touts new evidence, witnesses ahead of highly anticipated Jan. 6 hearing - Rep. Elaine Luria on Sunday teed up this week’s Jan. 6 select committee hearing, touting new witnesses who are expected to further illustrate former President Donald Trump’s role in last year’s deadly insurrection at the Capitol.“There’s other witnesses we have spoken to who have yet to appear in our previous hearings who will add a lot of value and information to the events of that critical time on Jan. 6,” Luria (D-Va.) said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”Luria, a member of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, said the panel on Thursday — at its eighth and final scheduled public hearing — will incorporate Trump White House counsel Pat Cipollone’s testimony, among others whom she did not name. Trump deputy White House press secretary Sarah Matthews is also expected to testify on Thursday.Luria said on Sunday that there would be people included in the hearing whose testimony has not been featured thus far.“I will tell you that people who were in the White House, people who were close to the president, and also people who had insight into the actions that were going on in the variety of ways that they were trying to control the violence and stop what was happening at the Capitol,” Luria said.The committee will use the new witnesses to connect the dots of Trump’s whereabouts and actions on Jan. 6, 2021, when a mob of the then-president’s supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 election. The panel in its public hearings has heavily relied on witness testimony and visual evidence — including photos, videos and social media posts — to illustrate Trump’s role in instigating the riot.Luria said the panel at Thursday’s hearing would go through “minute by minute” the timeframe of what Trump was doing during the insurrection.
‘Sprint through the finish’: Why the Jan. 6 committee isn't nearly done - The Jan. 6 select committee once envisioned a single month packed with hearings. Then a fire hose of evidence came its way — and now its members have no interest in shutting or even slowing the spigot. As its summer hearings show some signs of chipping at Donald Trump’s electoral appeal, select panel members describe Thursday’s hearing as only the last in a series. Committee members, aides and allies are emboldened by the public reaction to the information they’re unearthing about the former president’s actions and say their full sprint will continue, even past November. The only hard deadline, they say, is Jan. 3, 2023, when Republicans likely take over the House. Thursday’s hearing will focus on Trump’s hours of inaction on Jan. 6, 2021, while a mob ransacked the Capitol and supporters, aides and family members begged him to speak out. But beyond that, the committee is pursuing multiple new avenues of inquiry created by its investigation of Trump’s scheme to seize a second term he didn’t win, from questions about the Secret Service’s internal communications as well as leads provided by high-level witnesses from his White House. “It’s been amazing to see, kind of, the flurry of people coming forward,” said Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), one of the panel’s two Republican members. “So it’s not the time to wind it down.” The new open-ended timeline is a marked shift in the public posture of a committee that once eyed a conclusion as early as springtime, then looked to a September wrap-up. A confluence of forces, led by a series of recent breakthroughs, has led to its new posture. A major reason to continue, for many select panel members, is the public discussion they’ve driven about what they see as an ongoing threat to democracy posed by Trump and his allies. With every new hearing, particularly as White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson described an enraged Trump directing armed supporters to the Capitol and trying to join them there, the panel has seemed to get further under the skin of the former president as he contemplates a third bid for the White House. Each hearing has offered new insights about the Trump-driven push to unravel his loss based on false fraud claims — and as a result has motivated new witnesses to come forward. Aides and members say Thursday’s, featuring witnesses including former Trump White House press aide Sarah Matthews and former deputy national security adviser Matthew Pottinger, will be no different. “We’re going to sprint through the finish,” select panel member Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said in a brief interview. “The peak investigative time was probably February, March, or April,” he said. “It’s fewer interviews right now, but I don’t think that means we’re letting up. We’re doing some re-interviews of folks, but it’s important.”
Secret Service has no new texts to provide Jan 6 committee, any texts not backed up have been purged and cannot be recovered - The U.S. Secret Service has determined it has no new texts to provide Congress relevant to its Jan. 6 investigation, and that any other texts its agents exchanged around the time of the 2021 attack on the Capitol were purged, according to a senior official briefed on the matter.Also, the National Archives on Tuesday sought more information on “the potential unauthorized deletion” of agency text messages. The U.S. government’s chief record-keeper asked the Secret Service to report back to the Archives within 30 days about the deletion of any records, including describing what was purged and the circumstances of how the documentation was lost.The law enforcement agency, whose agents have been embroiled in the Jan. 6 investigation because of their role shadowing and planning President Donald Trump’s movements that day, is expected to share this conclusion with the Jan. 6 committee in response to its Friday subpoena for texts and other records.The agency, which made this determination after reviewing its communication databases over the past four days, will provide thousands of records, but nearly all of them have been shared previously with an agency watchdog and congressional committees, the senior official said. None is expected to shed new light on the key matters the committee is probing, including whether Trump attacked a Secret Service agent, an account a senior White House aide described to the Jan. 6 committee.Many of its agents’ cellphone texts were permanently purged starting in mid-January 2021 and Secret Service officials said it was the result of an agencywide reset of staff telephones and replacement that it began planning months earlier. Secret Service agents, many of whom protect the president, vice president and other senior government leaders, were instructed to upload any old text messages involving government business to an internal agency drive before the reset, the senior official said, but many agents appear not to have done so.The result is that potentially valuable evidence — the real-time communications and reactions of agents who interacted directly with Trump or helped coordinate his plans before and during Jan. 6 — is unlikely to ever be recovered, two people familiar with the Secret Service communications system said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters without agency authorization.
National Archives demands answers on deleted Jan. 6 Secret Service texts - The National Archives and Records Administration is investigating the “alleged unauthorized deletion” of a large cache of text messages sent by Secret Service officials in the days surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. NARA said in a statement Tuesday it informed the Secret Service that under federal law, the agency had 30 days to submit a report about why the agency deleted the relevant text messages, which has roiled the Jan. 6 select committee’s investigation in recent days. The Secret Service on Tuesday was also due to respond to a subpoena from the select committee demanding access to the missing tranche of messages. The select panel’s subpoena was aimed at Secret Service Director James Murray, who’s retiring later this month. The agency said the deletion occurred as part of a broad phone upgrade process that began before any investigators had requested messages, and a spokesperson said Tuesday they would cooperate with the NARA request. “The United States Secret Service respects and supports the important role of the National Archives and Records Administration in ensuring preservation of government records,” Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi said in a tweet. “They will have our full cooperation in this review.” Guglielmi later confirmed the agency still has the phones containing the now-erased messages in its custody. “We have them and are conducting a forensic examination to determine if content can be recovered,” he said. “It’s likely that it cannot, but we are exhausting all options.” The Department of Homeland Security inspector general, who is charged with overseeing the Secret Service, has criticized the agency’s handling of the matter and said some of the messages were deleted after he requested them in February 2021. The Homeland Security watchdog has also faulted the agency for having “significantly delayed” access to their records related to Jan. 6.
OIG asks Secret Service to stop internal investigation into ‘erased’ texts -A government watchdog has asked the Secret Service to stop its internal investigation into what it deemed were “erased” text messages. The inspector general for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the Secret Service, made the demand in a letter late Wednesday after notifying lawmakers earlier this month that the agency appeared to have erased text messages as part of a device replacement program. It’s a confusing position for the Secret Service, which was directed by the National Archives earlier this week to conduct an internal review of whether any texts went missing and whether they could be reconstructed. “The Secret Service is in receipt of the Department of Homeland Security Inspector General’s letter. We have informed the January 6th Select Committee of the Inspector General’s request and will conduct a thorough legal review to ensure we are fully cooperative with all oversight efforts and that they do not conflict with each other,” agency spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said in a statement. The National Archives demanded the Secret Service launch its own review into the matter Tuesday. “If it is determined that any text messages have been improperly deleted (regardless of their relevance to the OIG/Congressional inquiry of the events on January 6, 2021), then the Secret Service must send NARA a report within 30 calendar days of the date of this letter with a report documenting the deletion,” Laurence Brewer, chief records officer for the U.S. government, wrote in a letter to the custodian of records at DHS. Brewer’s letter also outlined the requirements for the NARA report. “This report must include a complete description of the records affected, a statement of the exact circumstances surrounding the deletion of messages, a statement of the safeguards established to prevent further loss of documentation, and details of all agency actions taken to salvage, retrieve, or reconstruct the records.”
Jan. 6 hearing to focus on Trump’s frantic 187 minutes -The House panel probing last year’s attack on the U.S. Capitol is promising a “minute-by-minute” account of Donald Trump’s actions throughout the rampage, turning its focus Thursday on those crucial hours at the White House to boost the case that the former president had supported — if not instigated — the violence of Jan. 6. In a prime-time hearing designed to maximize viewership, the select committee will examine the frantic 187 minutes between the start of the melee and Trump’s unhurried effort to defuse it with the release of a short video urging the rioters to “go home.” Investigators will press their case that Trump’s refusal to intervene more quickly is further evidence that the former president was squarely on the side of the protesters, even as their demonstration against Trump’s defeat escalated into a violent mob attack on Congress — one that threatened the lives of lawmakers and his own vice president. “The story we’re going to tell tomorrow is that in that time, President Trump refused to act to defend the Capitol as a violent mob stormed the Capitol with the aim of stopping the counting of electoral votes and blocking the transfer of power,” a select committee aide said on a preview call with reporters. “One of the main points that we’re going to make here is that President Trump had the power to call off the mob — he was the sole person who could call off the mob — and he chose not to.” The hearing — the eighth in a series — is expected to wind down the narrative laid out by the committee over the course of the last two months, when it examined the events leading up to Jan. 6 and the major players involved in Trump’s effort to remain in power. With their focus on Jan. 6 itself, investigators are aiming to dissect the chaos at the White House as anxious staff sought Trump’s intervention to end the violence, only to be dismissed by an angry president. The 187 minutes under scrutiny will feature his actions at the White House in the time when he returned from his speech at the Ellipse, at 1:10 p.m., to when he sent out a video asking his supporters to stand down, at 4:17 p.m. The committee is expected to hear from two members of Trump’s staff who resigned to protest how he handled Jan. 6: Matthew Pottinger, former deputy director for the National Security Council, and Sarah Matthews, then deputy press secretary. The panel is also expected to show ample footage of its July 8 deposition with former White House counsel Pat Cipollone, who was one of the few figures to confront Trump in the White House during the riot. The committee has previously described Pottinger as “in the vicinity of the Oval Office at various points throughout” Jan. 6. And snippets of testimony from both Pottinger and Matthews show they were critical of Trump’s actions that day, including his decision to fire off a tweet criticizing his vice president, Mike Pence, who quickly became a target of the mob. “One of my staff brought me a printout of a tweet by the president and the tweet said something to the effect that Mike Pence, the vice president, didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done. I read that tweet and made a decision at that moment to resign,” Pottinger told the committee behind closed doors.
Jan. 6 panel prepares to reveal how Trump sat on his hands during attack - The Jan. 6 select committee will take on a tall order Thursday night: Trying to prove not just that Donald Trump delayed calling off the violent Capitol mob, but that he welcomed his supporters’ conduct. The panel plans to paint a picture of a president who sat idly in the Oval Office, watching on TV as pro-Trump rioters battered their way through police lines and into the Capitol. While Trump’s public silence during much of the violence is already well-known, the panel argues that the new evidence it plans to reveal about what happened inside the West Wing will show he purposely didn’t intervene in the chaos until it was clear the mob had failed to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s election. “It wasn’t just a riot. it was an attempted coup that tried to pull every lever of government in order to overturn the election,” said Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), one of two lawmakers leading Thursday’s hearing. “And you know, that no one should be able to sleep comfortably at night, knowing that there’s people out there still pushing that lie and who want to try this again.” Thursday night’s hearing was supposed to be an explosive finale for the select panel. Now it looks more like the end of the beginning. Its probe has opened up extraordinary new avenues of inquiry — from Secret Service agents’ deletion of text messages in the days surrounding Jan. 6 to the legal concerns about Trump’s plans that day from his own White House counsel’s office. The hearing’s known witnesses are two former Trump White House aides, Sarah Matthews and Matthew Pottinger. But select panel members are expected to delve more deeply into the vast network of Trump allies who tried to facilitate his plans. “It may be that we anticipated originally, at this point in time, that we would have the opportunity to shift our attention more fully, just on the report and recommendations, but because we’ve been gathering so much information, it’s like there’s two parallel paths, two tracks that we’re pursuing,” Luria said. By all accounts, witnesses are coming forward at a steady clip, offering new insights about the multiple facets of Trump’s plan, which grew increasingly desperate as Jan. 6 approached. Some of them are likely to be featured in Thursday’s hearing, including former White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, who testified privately to the committee earlier this month.Rioters had already breached police lines when Trump pressed a crowd — which he knew included armed supporters, according to at least one witness — to descend on Congress as former then-Vice President Mike Pence oversaw the certification of Biden’s election. Evidence gathered by the committee also shows Trump fought to join his supporters at the Capitol and grew furious when he was told by Secret Service agents and aides that it was too dangerous.Then, from the White House, Trump watched TV as the siege of the Capitol escalated. Several aides, including Cipollone, press secretary Kayleigh McEnany, Trump’s executive assistant Molly Michael and national security adviser Keith Kellogg confirmed to the panel that Trump was watching news coverage of the riot as it unfolded. The select panel is also likely to screen news footage from the day of the attack during Thursday’s hearing, Luria said, in order to show what people outside Capitol Hill, including the TV-watching president, were seeing.
Matthews testifies Trump tweet gave ‘green light’ to rioters -Sarah Matthews, the former deputy White House press secretary under President Trump who resigned hours after the Capitol riot, testified on Thursday that Trump’s tweet saying then-Vice President Mike Pence “didn’t have the courage” to reject the Electoral College vote on Jan. 6, 2021, gave “the green light” to rioters. “It was obvious that the situation at the Capitol was violent and escalating quickly, and so I thought that the tweet about the vice president was the last thing that was needed in that moment, and I remember thinking that this was gonna be bad for him to tweet this because it was essentially him giving the green light to these people,” Matthews said at Thursday’s public hearing. “Telling them that what they were doing at the steps of the Capitol and entering the Capitol was OK, that they were justified in their anger. And he shouldn’t have been doing that, he should’ve been telling these people to go home and to leave and to condemn the violence that we’re seeing,” she added. Just before 2:30 p.m. on Jan. 6, Trump published a tweet criticizing Pence for not abiding by his request and rejecting the Electoral College vote for a number of states. “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify. USA demands the truth!” Trump wrote on Twitter. Thursday’s hearing, the eighth the select committee has held this summer, focused on Trump’s inaction during the 187 minutes between him leaving the Ellipse following his speech and when he sent out a tweet urging his supporters to leave the Capitol. Before Trump told his supporters to stop the violence, however, he sent out the tweet criticizing Pence. Matthews on Thursday said she immediately thought the tweet about Pence “was the last thing that was needed at that moment,” arguing that it told the rioters “they were justified in their anger.”
Retired generals, admirals in op-ed: Trump’s Jan. 6 actions were ‘dereliction of duty’ - Former President Trump’s actions during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection constituted a “dereliction of duty” that endangered American democracy, a group of seven retired four-star generals and admirals said in a New York Times op-ed Thursday.“When a mob attacked the Capitol, the commander in chief failed to act to restore order and even encouraged the rioters,” the former military leaders, who served Democratic and Republican presidents, wrote.In the op-ed, retired four-star Gens. Peter Chiarelli, John Jumper and Johnnie Wilson and retired Adms. James Loy, John Nathman, William Owens and Steve Abbot called out Trump for his inaction on Jan. 6 and consideration of using the military in schemes leading up to that day.Ahead of Jan. 6, the op-ed authors wrote, Trump’s allies “urged him to hold on to power by unlawfully ordering the military to seize voting machines and supervise a do-over of the election,” flouting the balance of civilian control of the military.When Trump did not call the National Guard to respond with the Capitol under siege, he ignored an “urgent need” for his intervention, the retired generals and admirals argued.“The president and commander in chief, Donald Trump, abdicated his duty to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution,” they wrote. And in doing so, he “tested the integrity” of civilian control of the military “as never before, endangering American lives and our democracy.”The group called on military leaders to enhance training on the chain of command and civilian-military leadership balance. They also implored civilian leaders, “including, most important, the commander in chief,” to be committed to those principles.“The lesson of that day is clear. Our democracy is not a given. To preserve it, Americans must demand nothing less from their leaders than an unassailable commitment to country over party — and to their oaths above all.”
Jan. 6 committee zeroes in on Kevin McCarthy attempts to reach Trump during attack --The Jan. 6 Select Committee at a Thursday hearing honed in on House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (Calif.) conversations with then-President Trump as the Capitol was under attack. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) introduced a montage of clips from deposition testimony and other clips detailing McCarthy’s repeated attempts to reach out to Trump, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, pleading with them to have Trump do more to call off the mob. Molly Michael, former executive assistant to the president, said that McCarthy had contacted former White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino’s desk line, and that the call was then transferred to the president. Michael testified that Trump was in the White House dining room when he took the call. In a Fox News clip from the day of the attack, McCarthy talked on the air about speaking to Trump. “I think we need to make a statement, make sure that we can calm individuals down,” McCarthy said. Marc Short, chief of staff to then-Vice President Mike Pence, said that McCarthy had indicated he had a conversation with Trump or someone in the White House. Short indicated that McCarthy expressed frustration the White House was “not taking the circumstances seriously as they should at that moment.” In an audio clip, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) described McCarthy talking about calling the White House and getting through to Trump. “He said, ‘You have got to get on TV. You’ve got to get on Twitter. You’ve got to call these people off.’” Herrera Beutler said. “You know what the president said to him? This is as it’s happening. He said, ‘Well, Kevin, these aren’t my people. These are, these are antifa.’” McCarthy responded that they were Trump’s people, and that his staff was running for cover, Herrera Beutler said. “And the president’s response to Kevin, to me, was chilling. He said, ‘Well, Kevin, I guess they’re more upset about the election theft than you are,’” Herrera Beutler. The two then got in a swearing match, she said. Julie Radford, former chief of staff for Ivanka Trump, said in a deposition that McCarthy reached out to Ivanka Trump about the attack at the Capitol one time. Trump accused of ‘dereliction of duty’ in dramatic Jan. 6 hearing Seven stunning moments from the Jan. 6 hearing Jared Kushner said in a deposition that McCarthy also called him. “He told me it was getting really ugly over at the Capitol and said, ‘Please, you know, anything you can do to help I would appreciate it,’” Kushner said. “I got the sense that they were, they were scared,” Kushner said, adding that it seemed McCarthy specifically was scared.
DC police officer corroborates story that Trump got in ‘heated argument’ in vehicle on Jan. 6 --A Washington, D.C., police officer corroborated previous testimony Thursday that former President Trump got into a “heated discussion” about going to the Capitol with his supporters after his speech on Jan. 6, 2021. The Jan. 6 panel presented clips of testimony from Sgt. Mark Robinson (Ret.) of the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department, who was assigned to Trump’s motorcade on Jan. 6. Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), a member of the select committee, said Robinson was in the lead vehicle with the Secret Service agent overseeing the motorcade, known as the TS agent. During previous testimony behind closed doors, Robinson, who said he had been part of the presidential motorcade more than 100 times, described what he was told about Trump’s conduct in the presidential vehicle. “The only description I received was that the president was upset and that he was adamant about going to the Capitol and that there was a heated discussion about that,” Robinson told the committee. He said the TS agent described it as “heated.” “Meaning that the president was upset and he was saying there was a heated argument or discussion about going to the Capitol,” Robinson said.
Dramatic testimony: Pence security detail feared for lives during riot --The Jan. 6 committee on Thursday released previously unheard radio chatter among Secret Service officers on Mike Pence’s security detail as they frantically weighed whether they could safely move the then-vice president to a secure location as rioters invaded the capitol. The audio, played over footage of rioters entering the Capitol, shed new light on how concerned Secret Service was about the vice president’s safety, as well as their own. “If we lose any more time, we may … lose the ability to leave. So, if we’re going to leave, we need to do it now,” one Secret Service agent said in a radio transmission. As other agents relayed the location of rioters, one official asked if they would encounter rioters if they tried to move Pence to a secure location in the Capitol. The White House National Security Council was listening to the radio conversations in real time and commenting in a chat log. One national security official wrote at 2:24 p.m.: “Service at the capitol does not sound good right now.” The committee interviewed an anonymous White House security official, who told the panel that the message was reflective of how panicked Secret Service appeared to be at the time, and that some were fearing for their lives. “There was a lot of yelling. A lot of very personal calls over the radio, so it was disturbing. I don’t like talking about it, but there were calls to say goodbye to family members, so on, so forth,” the anonymous official said in audio played Thursday.
Cheney sums up case against Trump in last big hearing moment before primary -Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) used her last major Jan. 6 Select Committee hearing moment before a tough primary election to sum up the case against former President Donald Trump. “In our hearing tonight, you saw an American president faced with a stark, unmistakable choice between right and wrong. There was no ambiguity, no nuance. Donald Trump made a purposeful choice to violate his oath of office to ignore the ongoing violence against law enforcement to threaten our constitutional order,” Cheney, vice chair of the Jan. 6 Committee, said in her closing statement during a primetime hearing Thursday. “There is no way to excuse that behavior. It was indefensible.” The hearing centered on Trump’s actions – and inaction – on Jan. 6 during the Capitol riot, featuring testimony from White House aides who wanted the president to call off the rioters earlier, and in a more forceful manner. “Every American must consider this: Can a President who is willing to make the choices Donald Trump made during the violence of January 6th ever be trusted with any position of authority in our great nation again?” Cheney said. The committee will return for more hearings in September, Cheney announced in Thursday’s hearing, weeks after her uphill Aug. 16 primary. The primary election is a referendum of sorts on Trump’s role in the Capitol attack and the Republican party moving forward. Cheney’s vote to impeach Trump after the riot led to swift calls for primary challengers against her, and her continuing to place blame on Trump for the attack for months after led to the House GOP Conference removing her from her No. 3 position as Conference Chair in May 2021. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) took her place. Cheney’s main primary competition is Trump-endorsed challenger Harriet Hageman, an attorney and former GOP National Committeewoman. While Cheney has far outraised Hageman, reporting a total of $13 million in contributions to her campaign through June 30 compared to $3.8 million for Hageman, a recent Casper Star-Tribune poll found her lagging far behind Trump’s pick.
As Questions of Evidence Destruction Hit the Secret Service, a Book Reveals that Secret Service Agents Spread the Big Lie of a Stolen Election on Social Media By Pam and Russ Martens: Scandal is once again swirling around the Secret Service. This time it’s over the destruction of U.S. government records in the form of text messages sent by Secret Service agents and officials on the pivotal days of January 5-6, 2021 when plans for, and the attack of, the Capitol were taking place. The timeline around the destruction of the records is as follows: On January 16, 2021 four House of Representative Committees wrote to the Secret Service requesting communications and preservation of documents concerning the attack on the Capitol; On January 25, 2021 Secret Service agents were reminded by superiors to back-up communications data but were given carte blanche as to what communications to keep and what to delete before communication devices were replaced on January 27, 2021;June 28, 2022 Cassidy Hutchinson, a top aide to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, testifies in a public hearing held by the January 6 Committee that she was told by Secret Service agent Tony Ornato (who was functioning in the unprecedented dual political role as Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations at the White House) that then President Donald Trump had grabbed a Secret Service agent, Bobby Engel, by the throat for defying Trump’s order to take him to the Capitol on January 6. She also said that Engel was present when this verbal report was given to her by Ornato and that Engel did not dispute Ornato’s version of events. Hutchinson said she was also told by Ornato that Trump had grabbed the steering wheel of the SUV in which he was riding as part of his motorcade, attempting to steer the vehicle to the Capitol, and was told to remove his hand by Engel. Following Hutchinson’s testimony, the Secret Service leaked to the press, without going on the record, that it was disputing this narrative.July 14, 2022 the Secret Service Inspector General informs Congress by letter that the Secret Service has deleted messages from January 5-6, 2021 and has been slow-walking the Inspector General’s investigation;July 15, 2022, the January 6 House Select Committee subpoenas electronic communications for January 5-6, 2021 and other material from the Secret Service with a deadline of Tuesday, July 19, 2022. According to media reports, the Select Committee received only one text message under this subpoena and was informed by the Secret Service that other messages had been erased and would likely not be able to be recovered. (The Secret Service actually has a Forensic Unit that should be able to recover those emails. If not, the Justice Department has been able to do such recovery in the past.)July 19, 2022: The National Archives, which is responsible for ensuring that all government records are preserved, sent a letter to the Department of Homeland Security (parent of the Secret Service) advising as follows:“Through several news sources, the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) has become aware of the potential unauthorized deletion of United States Secret Service (Secret Service) text messages. These reports address the deletion of text messages dated January 5 and January 6, 2021, following requests by DHS oversight officials investigating the agency’s response to the events that took place on January 6, 2021 at the United States Capitol building.“In accordance with 36 CFR 1230.16(b), NARA requests that the Secret Service look into this matter. If it is determined that any text messages have been improperly deleted (regardless of their relevance to the OIG/Congressional inquiry of the events on January 6, 2021), then the Secret Service must send NARA a report within 30 calendar days of the date of this letter with a report documenting the deletion. This report must include a complete description of the records affected, a statement of the exact circumstances surrounding the deletion of messages, a statement of the safeguards established to prevent further loss of documentation, and details of all agency actions taken to salvage, retrieve, or reconstruct the records.” July 21, 2022 the January 6 House Select Committee will hold a prime-time hearing at 8:00 p.m. (ET) where more information on this subject may be revealed.Unfortunately for the Secret Service, the woman reporting this story for the Washington Post is Carol Leonnig, author of the seminal book on the Secret Service, Zero Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Secret Service. The book was released in May of last year and provides an unsettling perspective on the culture of the agency and Trump’s further corruption of that culture. Leonnig has worked at the Washington Post for more than two decades and won a 2015 Pulitzer Prize for her work on security failures and misconduct inside the Secret Service. She was also part of a Washington Post reporting team that received the 2014 Pulitzer Prize for revealing the U.S. government’s surveillance of Americans through the disclosures of Edward Snowden. As for the culture of the Secret Service, Leonnig writes that a Secret Service agent wrote to her after he left the agency and “pointed to the Secret Service’s corrupt promotion system, which so closely resembles La Cosa Nostra’s that agents refer to being ‘made’ when they win their first major promotion, normally orchestrated through horse trading among competing bosses. The agents scrambling to rise in the agency learn the importance of loyalty to their ‘family tree,’ the first supervisors and teammates who backed them, even if it requires later covering up for their misconduct or mistakes.”
Secret Service subject to rare criminal probe over deleted Jan 6 texts – With the exception of former President Donald Trump's White House, no entity has drawn the focus of the House committee investigating the Capitol attack more than the Secret Service.The embattled agency now looms ever larger after the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general launched a criminal investigation into the destruction of text messages from the day before and day of Jan. 6, 2021.“When you open up a criminal investigation into a law enforcement entity, it is a big deal,” said Jonathan Wackrow, a former Secret Service special agent who is now chief operating officer at Teneo risk consultants.The deleted texts are the latest scandal for the Secret Service, which has struggled for years to overcome lapses and missteps. Earlier this year, suspects impersonating federal law enforcement officers allegedly cozied up to Secret Service agents with free apartments and other gifts. Through a series of directors and presidential administrations, the service has failed to meet staffing and training goals, according to the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office. Years earlier, events tarnishing the agency included a prostitution scandal in Colombia, a fence-jumper who made his way inside the White House and uninvited guests who snuck into a state dinner.Secret Service Director James Murray pledged again Friday to support "the extraordinary efforts" of the Jan. 6 committee, after already providing access to employees, thousands of documents and sensitive radio transmissions."As an American and Director of this incredible agency, I found the events at the Capitol on January 6th to be abhorrent," Murray said in a statement. "Since day one, I have directed our personnel to cooperate fully and completely with the Committee and we are currently finalizing dates and times for our personnel to make themselves available to the Committee for follow up inquiries."The investigation found texts missing from 24 members of the Secret Service from Jan. 6, 2021. The erasures happened during a routine replacement of phones among staffers. Four House committees had requested the texts and other documents on Jan. 16, 2021, as part of the investigation of the attack, and the phone migration began on Jan. 27.The inspector general for the Department of Homeland Security, Joseph Cuffari, announced earlier this month the Secret Service texts were missing. He launched a criminal investigation last week. The texts should have been saved under federal statute, regardless of the Capitol attack.The agency has said it has cooperated fully with the Jan. 6 committee and with the inspector general by reporting the missing texts.Anthony Guglielmi, an agency spokesman, said special agents provided dozens of hours of testimony and 790,000 emails to the committee already."The Secret Service has been cooperating fully with all of the January 6th Congressional Inquiries beginning last March and the formal Committee established in June," Guglielmi said in a tweet. "Our cooperation will not waver."
From the Secret Service to the Fed, Inspectors General Are Enablers to Corruption at the Agencies they Oversee - By Pam and Russ Martens - The Inspectors General of federal agencies are supposed to be the first line of defense against corruption within that agency. Increasingly, they have become part of the problem of corruption, coverups and cronyism. The January 6 House Select Committee has now stumbled upon this problem in a big way. According to a letter sent by Ronald L. Rowe, Assistant Director of the Secret Service, to the January 6 House Select Committee on Tuesday of this week, the Inspector General of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the parent agency of the Secret Service, first requested text messages from the Secret Service more than a year ago. The request covered a full month of text messages prior to and including the January 6 attack for 24 Secret Service agents. Instead of blowing the whistle to Congress, the public and the January 6 House Select Committee, the Inspector General simply kept his mouth shut for more than a year. On Wednesday night, Carol Leonnig, who has reported on the Secret Service for a decade at the Washington Post, and her colleague Maria Sacchetti, reported that the DHS Inspector General had “learned in February that the Secret Service had purged nearly all cellphone texts from around the time of the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, but chose not to alert Congress, according to three people briefed on the internal discussions.” The New York Times reported in this morning’s print edition that missing from the list of 24 Secret Service agents whose text messages were requested by the Inspector General was Tony Ornato – the man who had been “detailed” from the Secret Service to become Assistant to Trump and Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations at the White House. This was an unprecedented political move for a Secret Service agent, who was then allowed to return to the Secret Service after Trump’s term ended. According to Ornato’s official bio, one of his jobs at the White House was to take care of “all aspects of” “military operations” in support of President Trump. If anyone would have known why it took more than three hours for the National Guard to respond after the Capitol building had been breached by rioters on January 6 and what Trump was doing during those three hours, it would have been Ornato. By failing to subpoena Ornato’s text messages, it raises the question as to what the real agenda of the Inspector General actually was. The New York Times also reports today that Ornato is one of the Secret Service employees who has now hired a private attorney. Last Friday, the January 6 House Select Committee issued a subpoena to the Secret Service for text messages for January 5 and January 6, 2021. It received just the one text message referenced above, which was a text from then Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund to former Secret Service Uniformed Division Chief Thomas Sullivan, requesting assistance on January 6. Adding to the growing alarm around the Inspector General’s actions, just one day after a response to the subpoena was due to the January 6 Committee, on Wednesday evening the Inspector General’s office sent a letter to the Secret Service indicating that it was conducting a criminal investigation into the matter and warning the Secret Service to cease its own investigations. That portion of the letter, as first reported by CNN, reads as follows:“To ensure the integrity of our investigation, the USSS must not engage in any further investigative activities regarding the collection and preservation of the evidence referenced above. This includes immediately refraining from interviewing potential witnesses, collecting devices or taking any other action that would interfere with an ongoing criminal investigation.” This has set off alarm bells that the Inspector General is attempting to prevent the January 6 House Select Committee from obtaining the text messages it sought under subpoena by having the Secret Service conduct a forensic search for the texts on the replaced communication devices. Much of the consternation about the activities of this Inspector General, Joseph Cuffari, stem from the fact that he is a Trump appointee. Pushing for Cuffari’s Senate confirmation was Senator Ron Johnson, a right-wing Republican from Wisconsin. In the weeks leading up to the January 6 attack on the Capitol, Johnson held a hearing on election fraud in what appeared to be an effort to support Trump’s false allegations of a stolen election. One of the revelations from the January 6 Committee hearings was that Johnson’s Chief of Staff attempted to deliver to Vice President Mike Pence a slate of fake electors supporting Trump.
Contempt of Congress trial begins for coup plotter Stephen Bannon - Jury selection was completed Monday in the criminal contempt trial of fascist Stephen Bannon, a former political adviser in the Trump White House and co-conspirator in the January 6 coup. As of this writing, Bannon is the only high-level Trump adviser to face any legal repercussions for anything related to the January 6 coup. Politico reporter Kyle Cheney reported Monday night that 22 prospective jurors had been selected and that the Department of Justice (DoJ) indicated that they expect opening arguments in the trial to begin tomorrow, with the entire trial expected to be completed by the end of this week. Since being subpoenaed last September by the House Select Committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, Bannon has refused to supply documentation or appear for a deposition before the committee. In a “Hail Mary” attempt to avoid prosecution, Bannon announced this past weekend that he would agree to testify before the select committee … if it was in public and televised live. In a ruling last Monday, US District Judge Carl Nichols said that Bannon’s decision to testify before the committee now or in the future had no bearing on the contempt case, as the date Bannon was expected to appear before the committee had long passed. He ordered the criminal trial to move forward as scheduled. For refusing to comply with the committee’s request to appear for a deposition or provide documentation about what he knew concerning Trump’s coup, Bannon was indicted on two counts of criminal contempt by the DoJ on November 12, 2021. Each count carries a maximum $100,000 fine and up to a year in prison. After months of delay, the trial itself is expected to be over quickly after Judge Nichols, a 2019 Trump appointee and former law clerk to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, rejected two of Bannon’s main lines of defense last week. Nichols said that Bannon’s lawyers could not argue that Bannon was protected by “executive privilege” because there was no evidence Trump ever invoked it and Bannon was not working for the US government during the period about which the committee sought to question him. Nichols also ruled that Bannon cannot argue that he was just following the advice of his lawyer, who he alleges told him not to cooperate with the committee. After the rulings, Bannon’s lawyer, David Schoen, complained to Nichols: “What’s the point of going to trial here if there are no defenses?” Nichols responded, “Agreed.” While it is likely Bannon will be found guilty, there is no question he will appeal the verdict. While Bannon had no formal White House role since 2017, he currently hosts the far-right War Room podcast, which streams twice a day, five days a week, online. On the program Bannon regularly hosts reactionaries of all stripes, including anti-vaccine advocates, Christian zealots, militia members and fascistic Republican politicians such as Trump coup lawyer Rudy Giuliani and aspiring Missouri senator and disgraced former governor, Eric Greitens.
Steve Bannon found guilty of contempt charges for defying January 6 subpoena - Steve Bannon, a longtime ally of former President Donald Trump, was convicted Friday of contempt charges for defying a congressional subpoena from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Committee leaders called the verdict "a victory for the rule of law."Bannon, 68, was convicted after a four-day trial in federal court on two counts: one for refusing to appear for a deposition and the other for refusing to provide documents in response to the committee’s subpoena. The jury of 8 men and 4 women deliberated just under three hours.He faces up to two years in federal prison when he’s sentenced on Oct. 21. Each count carries a minimum sentence of 30 days in jail.David Schoen, one of Bannon's lawyers said outside the courthouse the verdict would not stand. "This is round one," Schoen said. "You will see this case reversed on appeal."Likewise, Bannon himself said, "We may have lost the battle here today; we’re not going to lose this war."He thanked the jurors for their service and said he had only one disappointment — "and that is the gutless members of that show trial committee, the J-6 committee didn’t have the guts to come down here and testify." "The subpoena to Stephen Bannon was not an invitation that could be rejected or ignored," Matthew Graves, the U.S. attorney in Washington, said in a statement. "Mr. Bannon had an obligation to appear before the House Select Committee to give testimony and provide documents. His refusal to do so was deliberate, and now a jury has found that he must pay the consequences." The committee sought Bannon’s testimony over his involvement in Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Bannon had initially argued that his testimony was protected by Trump’s claim of executive privilege. But the House panel and the Justice Department contend such a claim is dubious because Trump had fired Bannon from the White House in 2017 and Bannon was thus a private citizen when he was consulting with the then-president in the run-up to the riot on Jan. 6, 2021.
Feds Eye Criminal Charges For Hunter Biden As Probe Reaches 'Critical Stage' - The Department of Justice is weighing possible charges against Hunter Biden, after investigations into his business dealings and false statements involving his purchase of a gun have reached a 'critical juncture,' CNN (!?) reports.Sources say that the probe has intensified in recent months 'with discussions among Delaware-based prosecutors, investigators running the probe and officials at Justice Department headquarters.'While no final decision has been made, the possibility of dropping charges on Hunter would put a longstanding guideline to avoid bringing politically sensitive cases close to an election.Discussions recently have centered around possibly bringing charges that could include alleged tax violations and making a false statement in connection with Biden's purchase of a firearm at a time he would have been prohibited from doing so because of his acknowledged struggles with drug addiction....Adding to the pressure, Republicans in Congress have already announced that if they take over the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, they plan to launch new investigations and hold hearings to examine the conduct of Hunter Biden and others in the Biden family. -CNNThe debate over whether to bring the case this close to midterms has revolved around the fact that Joe Biden isn't on the ballot. While the DOJ probe initially focused on Hunter Biden's financial and business activities in foreign countries while his father was vice president, investigators had expanded the scope to include whether Hunter and associates violated money laundering, campaign finance, tax and foreign lobbying laws - and whether he broke federal firearm and other regulations, according to multiple sources. These matters have been narrowed down to tax and gun-related charges - which means the Biden family will likely be shielded from scrutiny over improper business dealings which leveraged Joe Biden's position of power - and which Joe Biden provably lied about discussing with Hunter.
It's not just Hunter Biden: Prepare for a 2023 packed with House GOP investigations - House Republicans are planning to bombard Joe Biden’s administration with investigations next year, from Hunter Biden to the border to the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. As the GOP prepares for a likely takeover of the chamber next year, committee chairs-in-waiting have laid out a lengthy list of oversight goals that goes beyond Biden’s White House — including Democrats’ formation of the Jan. 6 select committee. But the party’s highest-profile targets are those with the potential to politically bruise the president ahead of 2024: his son’s business dealings, Afghanistan, the origins of the coronavirus, inflation causes and the U.S.-Mexico border. Months before the midterms, Republican lawmakers are already working behind the scenes to divvy up which committee gets which piece of the investigative action next year. That includes talks with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and other conference leaders, plus member-on-member discussions. “I’ve been really impressed with leadership — both from [Rep.] Jim [Jordan], from [Rep.] Jamie Comer, from Kevin’s office — in already starting to talk about that,” said Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.). Republicans view executive-branch oversight as a significant piece of their 2023 agenda, driven in part by the reality that divided government would leave no path for most of their legislative priorities. Investigations also give the House GOP high-profile chances to lob subpoenas and tough questions at Biden officials heading into 2024, when it hopes to take the Senate and White House too. Republicans still need to nail down the timelines and other specifics for each investigation, but they’ve already taken initial steps such as document preservation requests. Those have already hit the Jan. 6 panel, administration officials involved in the Afghanistan withdrawal and Twitter over its legally challenged sale to Elon Musk, among other recipients. After four years in the House minority, Republicans have a backlogged wish list of topics to dig into. Their real challenge, GOP lawmakers predict, won’t be finding areas to investigate but rather winnowing down their focus. “It’s not something where we’re having to drum up, ‘OK, what are we going to do?’ It’s more of a limiting factor of, we only have 50 weeks a year,” said Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas). Much of the investigative churn will spin out of the Oversight Committee, a legislative octopus with jurisdictional tentacles that can reach into several parts of the administration. Jamie Comer, the Kentucky Republican who is expected to lead the panel should Republicans take the majority, said that he was trying to lay the groundwork now so that he and his members could start right away in January.
GOP lawmaker who gave Jan. 5 tour wants to investigate Jan. 6 panel - The House Republican who led a tour of the Capitol complex on Jan. 5, 2021, that further fueled Democratic worries of pre-riot “reconnaissance” could end up leading the GOP’s investigation of the Jan. 6 select committee. Rep. Barry Loudermilk himself in the select panel’s crosshairs over his Jan. 5 tour, where participants took photos of stairwells and other elements of the Capitol complex not typically of interest to visitors. The Georgia Republican denied any connection between the tour and the following day’s riot — and he may get a chance to offer his side of the story with a gavel in hand if Republicans take back the House next year, as expected.Loudermilk told POLITICO that he is interested in chairing the House Administration Committee in a future GOP majority, using it to dig into the Jan. 6 panel and Capitol security. That chairmanship is wide open and Loudermilk is the most senior Republican on the committee after Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis, who lost his primary last month. In a brief interview, Loudermilk dinged the select committee as giving Capitol security a short shrift in service of “some narrative of pushing blame somewhere.” He added that members of the administration committee, which has jurisdiction over the Capitol complex, “also need to look at things like the false allegations they’ve made against people … because when you make false allegations, that’s in violation of the House rules.” Many Republicans are eager to use a potential 2023 majority to turn the tables on the Jan. 6 panel, which has lacked Donald Trump-approved voices on the dais during its high-profile probe since GOP leadership boycotted it last year after Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected some of their picks. Loudermilk is hoping to take up the mantle now that Davis’ ambitions were cut short — and the personal animus he may bring to investigating the select committee promises to create new political challenges for its members.
Half of Americans expect a civil war ‘in the next few years’ - A study released Wednesday found that about half of all Americans expect a civil war to occur “in the next few years.” Researchers from the University of California-Davis Violence Prevention Research Program and the California Violence Research Center reported that 50.1 percent of survey respondents said they at least somewhat agree that a civil war will happen soon, while 47.8 percent disagreed. About 14 percent said they “strongly” or “very strongly” agree that a civil war is imminent, while 36 percent said they somewhat agree. The results come as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection is set to hold its final hearing of the summer on Thursday. The committee will release its report on what led to the Capitol attack, including possibly recommending any charges against individuals involved, later this year. The researchers said the study’s results may also signal reasons for concern about the future of American democracy. Two-thirds of respondents said there is a “serious threat” to the country’s democracy, and almost 90 percent said it is “very” or “extremely” important for the United States to remain a democracy. But more than 40 percent said having a “strong leader” for the country is more important than having a democracy. Almost 1 in 5 said they agreed “strongly” or “very strongly” with that statement. Almost 20 percent said they agree strongly or very strongly that violence might be justified to protect democracy if elected leaders will not, while more than 15 percent said they agree strongly or very strongly with using violence to save “our American way of life,” which is “disappearing.”
Reporter: Facebook using ex-CIA to decide misinformation policy is ‘very, very worrying’ --An investigative reporter for MintPress News on Monday said it was “very worrying” that Facebook is employing former CIA agents to moderate misinformation policies on the social media platform. Alan MacLeod, who published a piece last week about ex-CIA agents working at Facebook, told Hill.TV the decision to employ them to moderate content was worrying because the CIA has a “long history of infiltrating media organizations.” “The CIA has a terrible track record from everything from organizing coups to running black sites all over the world to even just planting a load of false information into the public domain to suit their own agenda,” MacLeod said. “We are now relying on these people to tell us what’s fact and fiction and to sort truth and fiction from falsehood online.” Facebook has struggled to contain misinformation for years. The social media company employs third party fact-checking organizations to reduce the spread of false and harmful content. MacLeod, who wrote that Facebook has employed dozens of former CIA agents primarily to work in the fields of security or content moderation, told Hill.TV that a limited amount of people are experts in cybersecurity, which would explain why Facebook is looking toward the CIA. But the reporter said Americans are “not secure from what our own government is doing” the more control that current and former officials have over technology. “It might be great to [have] security from Chinese hackers or Iranian bloggers,” MacLeod said, “but it’s not security from the enormous agencies in Washington, who of course are trying to influence the internet as well.”
Senate Republicans blast Gensler for cold shoulder on climate oversight — Top Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee rebuked the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission for declining to address their concerns about proposed climate risk disclosure regulations.In a letter Thursday to SEC Chair Gary Gensler, Republicans led by Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania accused the agency of poor public transparency and a “disregard for a significant congressional oversight request” in connection with the SEC’s efforts tointroduce climate disclosure requirements for publicly traded companies.Without support from their Democratic colleagues in a 50-50 Senate, Republicans have few formal powers to investigate federal regulators. But with the 2022 midterm elections fast approaching, the letter offers a preview of the aggressive oversight that Biden administration regulators will likely face next year should control of either the House or Senate flip. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., (left) blasted Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler (right) in a letter Thursday, arguing that the agency's response to a recent oversight request was "wholly inadequate."“We requested that you provide certain records concerning the climate disclosure rule, but you have not provided a single requested record,” the lawmakers wrote. The letter was signed by all 12 Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee.Thursday’s letter follows another one from mid-June, when the committee’s Republicans first requested that the SEC answer a number of questions about the agency’s proposed rulemaking and preserve “all records” related to the process. The follow-up letter argued that the SEC’s response was late, “wholly inadequate and unacceptable.”
A Headline at Politico Declares that the U.S. Can’t Be a Financial Leader without Crypto; The Headline Was Written by a Crypto Firm - By Pam and Russ Martens: July 18, 2022 ~ Yesterday we spotted a headline at the news outlet, Politico, that read: “Meeting the Moment: Without cryptocurrency regulatory approval, the U.S. risks its status as a financial leader.” Posing as actual journalism with a byline by a person named Jennifer Gregory, the article provides a lengthy interview with Michael Sonnenshein, the CEO of Grayscale Investments, a peddler of Bitcoin. Sonnenshein uses the interview to whine about a recent Securities and Exchange Commission decision that didn’t go his way and tout how his powerful outside law firm, Davis Polk, plans to appeal the decision. In small print, the article notes that it is actually “Sponsored by Grayscale Investments.” In other words, it’s an advertisement posing as real journalism. Unfortunately, this co-branding between the Bitcoin company, Grayscale, and the news outlet, Politico, goes much deeper than just this one headline.On March 24 of this year, Politico held a conference titled “Regulating the Digital Gold Rush,” a conference which was financially underwritten by Grayscale. The conflicted financial backing for the event didn’t stop Politico from placing two of its reporters, Sam Sutton and Ben Schreckinger, on the stage at the conference with their interviewees, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).Both Gillibrand and Lummis have received an influx of donations to their political campaigns from crypto interests and were at the conference to promote a crypto-friendly bill they were planning to introduce in the Senate.As the Politico reporters asked softball questions of the two Senators in front of a backdrop showing the words “Politico” and “Grayscale” side by side, the Senators gushed over their desire to help the crypto industry “innovate.” Gillibrand explained that New York “is the financial services capitol of the world” and “this is one of the greatest, growing industries that New York definitely wants to have a part of.”In reality, 1,600 of the smartest minds in technology sent a letter to Congress on June 1 explaining why both crypto and blockchain are a sham and harmful to U.S. interests. Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, one of the most valuable tech companies in the U.S., stated in June that crypto is based “on the greater fool theory,” adding that “I’m used to asset classes… like a farm where they have output, or like a company where they make products.” Legendary investor, Warren Buffett, called Bitcoin “rat poison squared” in 2018, the same year that Bill Harris, the former CEO of Intuit and PayPal, wrote a detailed critique of Bitcoin for Vox, under the headline: “Bitcoin is the greatest scam in history.”Harris explained: “In my opinion, it’s a colossal pump-and-dump scheme, the likes of which the world has never seen. In a pump-and-dump game, promoters ‘pump’ up the price of a security creating a speculative frenzy, then ‘dump’ some of their holdings at artificially high prices. And some cryptocurrencies are pure frauds. Ernst & Young estimates that 10 percent of the money raised for initial coin offerings has been stolen.”
From $25 billion to $167 million: How a major crypto lender collapsed and dragged many investors down with it -- Celsius filing for bankruptcy this week surprised virtually no one. Once a platform freezes customer assets, it's typically all over. But even though it was expected, it remains a really big deal for the industry.In October 2021, CEO Alex Mashinsky said the crypto lender had $25 billion in assets under management. Even as recently as May — despite crashing cryptocurrency prices — the lender was managing about $11.8 billion in assets, according to its website. The firm had another $8 billion in client loans, making it one of the world's biggest names in crypto lending.Now, Celsius is down to $167 million "in cash on hand," which it says will provide "ample liquidity" to support operations during the restructuring process.Meanwhile, Celsius owes its users around $4.7 billion, according to its bankruptcy filing — and there's an approximate $1.2 billion hole in its balance sheet.It goes to show that leverage is one hell of a drug, but the moment you suck out all that liquidity, it's a whole lot harder to keep the party going. The fall of Celsius marks the third major bankruptcy in the crypto ecosystem in two weeks, and it is being billed as crypto's Lehman Brothers moment — comparing the contagion effect of a failed crypto lender to the fall of a major Wall Street bank that ultimately foretold the 2008 mortgage debt and financial crisis. Regardless of whether the Celsius implosion portends a larger collapse of the greater crypto ecosystem, the days of customers collecting double-digit annual returns are over. For Celsius, promising those big yields as a means to onboard new users is a big part of what led to its ultimate downfall. "They were subsidizing it and taking losses to get clients in the door," said Castle Island Venture's Nic Carter. "The yields on the other end were fake and subsidized. Basically, they were pulling through returns from [Ponzi schemes]." Three weeks after Celsius halted all withdrawals due to "extreme market conditions" — and a few days before the crypto lender ultimately filed for bankruptcy protection — the platform was still advertising in big bold text on its website annual returns of nearly 19%, which paid out weekly. "Transfer your crypto to Celsius and you could be earning up to 18.63% APY in minutes," read the website on July 3. Promises such as these helped to rapidly lure in new users. Celsius said it had 1.7 million customers, as of June. The company's bankruptcy filing shows that Celsius also has more than 100,000 creditors, some of whom lent the platform cash without any collateral to back up the arrangement. The list of its top 50 unsecured creditors, includes Sam Bankman-Fried's trading firm Alameda Research, as well as an investment firm based in the Cayman Islands. Those creditors are likely first in line to get their money back, should there be anything for the taking — with mom and pop investors left holding the bag. After filing its bankruptcy petition, Celsius clarified that "most account activity will be paused until further notice" and that it was "not requesting authority to allow customer withdrawals at this time." The FAQ goes on to say that reward accruals are also halted through the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, and customers will not be receiving reward distributions at this time. That means customers trying to access their crypto cash are out of luck for now. It is also unclear whether bankruptcy proceedings will ultimately enable customers to ever recoup their losses. If there is some sort of payout at the end of what could be a multi-year process, there is also the question of who would be first in line to get it. Unlike the traditional banking system, which typically insures customer deposits, there aren't formal consumer protections in place to safeguard user funds when things go wrong. Celsius spells out in its terms and conditions that any digital asset transferred to the platform constitutes a loan from the user to Celsius. Because there was no collateral put up by Celsius, customer funds were essentially just unsecured loans to the platform. Also in the fine print of Celsius' terms and conditions is a warning that in the event of bankruptcy, "any Eligible Digital Assets used in the Earn Service or as collateral under the Borrow Service may not be recoverable" and that customers "may not have any legal remedies or rights in connection with Celsius' obligations." The disclosure reads like an attempt at blanket immunity from legal wrongdoing, should things ever go south.
Bitcoin Slides After Tesla Admits Dumping Most Of Its Crypto In Q1 - After a solid 8-day stretch of gains, which saw Bitcoin rise almost 30% and back above $24,000, the world's largest cryptocurrency is taking a hit after hours following news from Tesla's earnings report that the car-maker sold a majority of its Bitcoin holdings in Q1.As a reminder, Tesla announced in early Feb 2021 that it had bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin on to its balance sheet, in anticipation of accepting the cryptocurrency as payment for its cars (which it did in March 2021 but suspended them shortly after in May after Musk proclaimed the company was "concerned about rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for bitcoin-mining and transactions."), and offering “more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash.”Given the announcement's timing, this means that Musk's firm was potentially buying bitcoin from November 2020 through the end of Jan 2021.In Q1 2021, Tesla sold $272 million of its bitcoin holdings, leaving the firm with around $1.33 billion in bitcoin on its books.In May 2022, after Bitcoin's collapse had begun, Tesla took a write-down part of its holdings from its cost “basis,” which, according to Forbes, stood at $30,000 per coin.And in today's earnings report, Tesla announces it has sold 75% of its bitcoin holdings for $936 billion.All of which suggests that Musk sold the company's crypto at around breakeven (75% of the $1.33 billion holding would be around $997.5 million)...
Treasury’s Liang says reining in stablecoins is harder without a federal payments regulator — Stablecoins have the potential to upend the payments sector, and the lack of a federal payments regulator makes it harder to tackle the problem, a top Treasury Department official says. Nellie Liang, the Treasury’s under secretary for domestic finance, said at an event hosted by the Financial Services Forum that payments are one of the first issues the department plans on tackling in a list of reports mandated by the Biden administration’s executive order to study and recommend policy around digital assets. “Digital assets have the potential to really fundamentally reform payments," she said. The issue of payments is among the topics under consideration by the Treasury and some lawmakers in Congress as policymakers try to figure out how digital assets will be overseen, and hints at the importance that payments will play in ongoing discussions. The Treasury Department last week solicited public comment on the risks and opportunities posed by digital assets — a wide-ranging request that’s part of the Biden administration executive order to study the topic. Liang continued to argue for Congress to pass legislation that would make it easier for the federal government to address the risks to payments posed by stablecoins. One of those, she said, is the potential misalignment between the settlement of stablecoins, which can occur instantly, and Treasury bills, which could need to wait for regular business hours. Liang cited the previously issued President’s Working Group report, which outlines this issue as “causing temporary shortages in the quantity of stablecoins available to make payments.”Because of the operational difficulties relating to stablecoins' potential use in payments, Liang said, the current regulatory setup isn’t “sufficient,” and that’s “in part because the U.S. does not have a federal payments regulator.” “We want to make sure if it becomes a source of payment in the real economy, to support the real economy, that you can actually regulate the whole system,” Liang told reporters after her appearance. “The current banking system regulation wouldn’t have allowed that.” Liang also clarified that the Biden administration’s calls for banklike regulation for stablecoin issuers wouldn’t necessarily mean that banks would be the only entities allowed to issue stablecoins. But she did say that banks could offer stablecoins, or some kind of deposits that are like stablecoins, in the future.
The case for a digital dollar is ‘picking up momentum’ Once dismissed out of hand, the prospect of a Federal Reserve-issued digital currency is beginning to gain traction with Washington policymakers.Officials from Congress, the Federal Reserve and the Office of Financial Research have made a case in recent weeks for the development of a U.S. central bank digital currency, or CBDC, through public remarks and discussion papers. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard called CBDCs a “natural evolution” in the payments arena in a speech earlier this month. She added that digital fiat could stabilize crypto markets by providing a neutral settlement layer. The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building stands in Washington, D.C. While many policymakers have expressed skepticism on whether the Fed should pursue a central bank digital currency, some administration officials and members of Congress are building an affirmative case for a digital dollarSimilarly, a report from the OFR found that a CBDC would be a net positive to financial stability. By providing transparency about capital flows, the working paper notes, a digital currency could reduce the likelihood of a bank run by depositors worried about liquidity and also give regulators insights into budding crises in real time. The most emphatic endorsement for a CBDC came in a late June white paper from Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., who sits on the House Financial Services Committee. In it, he urges Congress to authorize the Fed to design and implement its own digital currency. Doing so, Himes argued, would be essential to the dollar maintaining its status as the world’s reserve currency. These arguments, coupled with the volatility in the private stablecoin market, have made the case for a CBDC more compelling, Himes said. “The focus of my office and a number of other people in Congress and the Fed, plus the devastation that we're witnessing in the stablecoin market right now, has given the idea momentum,” Himes told American Banker. “I wouldn't go so far as to call it a turning point … and it’s not unopposed, but I think it’s picking up momentum.”
NCUA proposal would give credit unions 72 hours to report cyber breach --The National Credit Union Administration is considering a rule that would give credit unions a limited time to report cybersecurity incidents to the regulator.At its monthly meeting Thursday, the NCUA board discussed a proposal that would require federally insured credit unions to notify the agency of a cyber attack within 72 hours after the credit union has formed a “reasonable belief” that it has experienced a reportable incident.A credit union would be required to report a cyber incident if it leads to a substantial loss of confidentiality, integrity or availability of a member information system as a result of the exposure of sensitive data, disruption of vital member services or a serious impact on the safety and resiliency of operational systems and processes. The proposal would align with the Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act signed into law in March. It would also bring the NCUA’s cyber incident reporting framework into greater alignment with those of other federal banking regulators, board members said.Banks are required to notify their primary federal regulator of any significant computer-security incident no later than 36 hours after determining that one occurred. NCUA board chairman Todd Harper said that considering the ongoing geopolitical upheaval caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine and the “countless fraudsters and scammers who lurk in the ether,” the NCUA must remain vigilant to stay ahead of criminals who perpetrate cyberattacks.
Fintechs navigate the murky legal territory of abortion benefits - Companies of all stripes sprang into action after the Supreme Court draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade was leaked in early May. Banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were among those firms declaring new benefits that would cover the cost of travel, and sometimes medical or legal, expenses for employees forced to seek abortions outside of their home states. Citi did this well ahead of the court decision, in March. Alloy, a company in New York City that helps banks automate identity and risk decisions for onboarding and other needs, was also ahead of the curve.In January, chief revenue officer and co-founder Laura Spiekerman published a blog postdetailing Alloy’s new benefits as a response to the Texas Heartbeat Act, or SB 8, which took effect in September 2021.“As reproductive rights come under fire through our government, the leadership team at Alloy finds it essential that we take a more explicit stance in favor of reproductive rights,” she wrote. Alloy stated it would contribute up to $1,500 toward travel expenses for employees or their partners needing to travel out of state for abortion care; provide up to $1,500 for out-of-pocket medical costs; and cover 50% of legal expenses up to $5,000 if any employee or their partner faces legal issues. Since then, several other fintechs, including the card issuing platform Marqeta, the investing and digital banking app provider Stash, and TomoCredit, a credit card provider for those without credit histories, have followed suit. Some are intentionally vocal about their policies in the hopes of encouraging their peers to adopt similar measures.All these fintechs are navigating uncertain territory in efforts to protect their employees and uphold their values. Often, this has meant acting fast, even if the initial policies felt imperfect.Beyond that, reproductive benefits could become a sticking point for potential or existing employees in states with restrictive laws, especially as companies become increasingly relaxed about hiring remote workers. The firms interviewed for this story are headquartered in either New York or California, but all have employees in states with severe restrictions.“If employees feel a company is being silent on the issue, it could impact morale or the culture of the workforce,” said Melissa Atkins, a partner in the labor and employment group at the law firm Obermayer, pointing out that technology is already a male-dominant field. “It could have negative impacts on retention and hiring, which is crucial in some industries right now.”
House includes pot banking provision in defense bill -The House of Representatives last week passed a defense spending bill that included a provision that would allow cannabis companies to access traditional banking services, a victory for banks and credit unions working in the industry. The House on July 14 passed the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act, an appropriations bill that sets the budget for the U.S. defense industry and funds public safety, on a vote of 329-101. Among many amendments tucked into the bill is the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act, a bipartisan measure that would protect financial institutions from punishment by the government if they offer banking services to licensed businesses in the cannabis industry.
U.S. banks keep financing trade of Russian crops as EU peers balk -Banks in the U.S. and Middle East continue to do what self-sanctioning is stopping their European counterparts from doing: financing the trade of crucial Russian crops and fertilizers. Sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine haven’t targeted its farm sector because of the key role it plays in helping to feed the world. The U.S. has reiterated that food and fertilizers aren’t part of any restrictions to ease buyers’ concerns, and Middle Eastern and Asian countries have mostly avoided penalties on Moscow altogether. But in Europe, many banks are steering clear of financing Russian products. European Union sanctions targeting the beneficial owners of some bulk-commodity companies have created uncertainty over which deals are allowed and lenders are worried about dealing with Russian counterparts more broadly. The same thing is happening in Switzerland, which has mirrored EU rules and traditionally played a key part in funding trade in Russian commodities. The split shows how the firms that trade and finance the flow of commodities around the world keep grappling with the question of Russian goods. Russia is a huge supplier of grains, particularly wheat, and governments are trying to ensure that sanctions designed to punish it don’t push near-record global food costs even higher. There are recent signs that the EU is seeking to encourage Russian agricultural trade and reduce over-compliance as a result of its rules — ambassadors signed off on new measures this week that allow exemptions to sanctions for agricultural transactions. “It is not surprising that Swiss and EU banks are reluctant to finance trades where the ownership structure of the parties to the trade requires analysis,” said Sarah Hunt, a partner at the law firm HFW. Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are among banks still financing purchases of Russian farm commodities, either directly or through subsidiaries, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because details are private. Two big US agricultural firms who asked not to be named said they’re continuing to do Russian business with no financial-related problems. Citigroup and JPMorgan declined to comment. Citigroup last week said it’s considering possibilities to exit its Russian consumer and commercial banking businesses.
HSBC to exit Russia after agreeing to sell unit to Expobank -HSBC has agreed to sell its Russian unit to local lender Expobank, the latest international bank to exit the country following its invasion of Ukraine.The London-based firm said in a statement that it had reached a deal without disclosing the transaction amount. Bloomberg reported this month that talks on a sale of the business to Expobank were at an advanced stage.“Following a strategic review, HSBC has signed an agreement to sell 100% of its participating interests in HSBC Bank (RR) LLC to Expobank JSC,” the statement said. “Completion of this transaction is subject to various regulatory approvals within Russia. With this agreement, the HSBC Group will exit its operations in Russia.”An Expobank spokeswoman declined to comment.The deal would require approval from a special government commission in Russia. It plans to review individual requests on the sale of foreign bank units in the country without instigating a blanket ban on such deals, two officials familiar with discussions on the matter have said.HSBC stopped providing retail banking products in Russia several years ago after an earlier strategic review, but had continued to service its international corporate clients operating in the market. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February the bank said its local unit would not accept any new customers or business. The deal marks another exit of an international lender following the Kremlin-ordered invasion of Ukraine. Societe Generale agreed to sell its Rosbank unit to the investment firm of Russia’s richest man, Vladimir Potanin. Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase said in March they would wind down operations there.
Democrats ask CFPB to expand legal criteria for fraud in P2P payments --A key group of Senate Democrats urged the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to expand the agency’s definition of fraudulent fund transfers via instant payment services, an effort to expand bank liability in peer-to-peer transactions. In a letter addressed to CFPB Director Rohit Chopra dated Wednesday, the senators homed in on Zelle, a payments platform owned by a consortium of banks that has been subject to increasing scrutiny as a hotbed for consumer fraud. The lawmakers — representing half of the Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee, including Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the panel's chair — asked Chopra to “clarify” that a fraudulent payment could be considered an “error” when “a consumer is defrauded into initiating a transfer to a scammer.” Regulators could also label certain acts of fraud an “unauthorized electronic fund transfer.” Both expansions of the criteria would increase the likelihood that financial institutions will be responsible for making consumers whole after they become victims of fraud under the Electronic Fund Transfer Act and Regulation E, the senators said. Under current regulations, consumers are generally not protected when fraudulent funds are directly transferred between accounts, which lawmakers described as “antiquated.” “Consumers are often on the hook because existing rules do not reflect new technological developments” the lawmakers wrote in the letter. It was signed by Sens. Brown, Jack Reed of Rhode Island, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and Raphael Warnock of Georgia. “These kinds of approaches would provide more consistent and fairer outcomes than the current rules, which offer no protections against the common scams and frauds that have proliferated on instant payment services like Zelle,” the lawmakers said. “The CFPB should send a strong signal that the agency expects banks under its supervision to bear more responsibility for letting scammers and fraudsters onto services that they developed and that they currently market as safe platforms to send and receive money.”
Regulators: CRA reforms incentivize investment in Native American lands - Proposed changes to the Community Reinvestment Act could create “powerful incentives” for banks to invest in Native American communities, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Tuesday afternoon. During a webinar with a dozen Native organizations, Brainard, acting director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Martin Gruenberg and acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu outlined the potential benefits of the CRA overhaul introduced by the three regulatory agencies in May. Expansion of online banking and the ability for banks to reach customers well beyond the bounds of their local branches has driven the current reform effort, the first reform effort mounted by the three agencies in more than two decades. Brainard said this shift could be used to funnel investments to broader areas, too. Lael Brainard, vice chair of the US Federal Reserve, center, speaks during a panel discussion in Washington, D.C. in June. Brainard, along with Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, left, and acting FDIC chair Martin Gruenberg, right, touted the benefits of their Community Reinvestment Act overhaul for indigenous communities during a similar panel Tuesday.“This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to strengthen the CRA to bring greater credit, investment, and banking services to the communities that have faced the greatest challenges,” she said. “For the first time, the CRA will provide powerful incentives for banks to make investments in communities that do not have access to branches, such as in Native lands.”The joint proposal aims to modernize the CRA to allow for banks to be more easily credited for community investment activity done outside the immediate “facility-based assessment areas” surrounding their branches. Certain activities, such as investing in affordable housing, can be counted regardless of where it is in the country. The proposal also enables more activities to garner CRA credit, including investments in childcare, education, workforce development, job training and health services, as well as efforts to improve financial literacy.
FHFA will 'reexamine' role of Federal Home Loan banks: Thompson — The director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency said the agency would “reexamine” the structure and role of the Federal Home Loan banks in the U.S. housing market, the first possible steps of long-sought reform. Testifying during an oversight hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, FHFA Director Sandra L. Thompson told lawmakers in her opening remarks that the agency would soon begin a formal review of the Federal Home Loan Bank System. The government sponsored enterprises, created in the 1930s, have drawn scrutiny as their core business in the housing market has declined amid historic levels of liquidity in the banking system. “As we near the 100th anniversary" of the Home Loan banks, "now is a good time to reexamine their approach to ensure they continue to serve the needs of today and tomorrow,” Thompson said. “We plan to engage a variety of stakeholders in the coming months as we complete this review and, of course, welcome the input of members of Congress.” In her written testimony, Thompson said the FHFA would “conduct a 90-year lookback, as well as a forward-looking analysis of" the Home Loan Bank System. She also said the agency would hold “public listening sessions throughout the country” and “examine everything from the banks’ membership base, operational efficiency, and effectiveness, to more foundational questions about mission, purpose, and organization.” Thompson received a warm welcome from Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee in her first appearance since being Senate-confirmed to her role earlier this year. Committee Chair Maxine Waters of California said that the Biden appointee had “taken critical steps to set the FHFA on a new path forward” by eliminating policies introduced under the Trump administration that “made it more expensive for families to buy or refinance their homes.” Thompson’s Trump-era predecessor, former FHFA Director Mark Calabria, was brought up repeatedly during Wednesday’s hearing. Republicans expressed support for policies introduced by Calabria before he was ousted by the Biden administration, while Democrats blasted his tenure and argued his policies had made homeownership harder to achieve for some Americans. Ranking Member Patrick McHenry, the North Carolina Republican, criticized Thompson forundoing Calabria’s changes to the FHFA’s capital requirement framework, which had introduced banklike capital requirements for the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “Instead of working to maintain stability, FHFA has weakened our housing finance system by reducing taxpayer protections and pushing new risky schemes,” McHenry said. “For example, the agency rescinded the capital and liquidity rule designed to ensure that the GSEs could weather an economic downturn. We're concerned about that.”
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.81% in June" --Note: This is as of June 30th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.81% in June - The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.85% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.81% as of June 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate,405,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 0.35%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased 1 basis point to 1.26%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 18 basis points to 1.68%.“The overall forbearance rate in June stayed relatively flat with just a 4-basis-point decline from May,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Borrowers continue to exit forbearance, but at a much slower pace than six or nine months ago. New forbearance requests are still trickling in, as permitted under the CARES Act, resulting in very little movement in the overall percentage of loans in forbearance.”Added Walsh, “There are some early indicators of borrower stress resulting from high inflation and rising interest rates, among other factors. For example, overall servicing portfolio performance dropped by 14 basis points to 95.71% current in June, and the performance of post-forbearance workouts declined by 140 basis points to 81.34%. It is worth monitoring post-forbearance workouts for all borrowers, and particularly for borrowers with government loans, who are typically the most vulnerable to economic slowdowns.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.The share of forbearance plans is decreasing, and, at the end of June, there were about 405,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
The growing housing supply shortage has created a housing affordability crisis - EPI Blog - Rising housing costs have made housing largely inaccessible and unaffordable to most Americans, but have acutely impacted communities of color and low- to moderate-income families over the past several decades. The median asking rent in the United States rose above $2,000 for the first time in June 2022. Given that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) sets the standard of affordability at 30% of household income, $2,000 per month would only be “affordable” for households earning at least $80,000 per year—well above the median U.S. household income ($67,521). A growing housing supply shortage is a key contributor to the housing affordability crisis. Following the Great Recession, the share of homes being built fell significantly, causing buyer demand to exceed housing production. In fact, fewer new homes were built in the decade following the Great Recession than in any decade since the 1960s. This deficit has now expanded even further, contributing to a shortfall of over 3 million homes and growing.Some of the leading factors responsible for the housing shortage are land availability and exclusionary zoning laws, which restrict the kinds of homes that can be put in certain neighborhoods—maintaining segregation. Examples of exclusionary zoning laws include minimum lot and square footage requirements, limits on the height of buildings, and restrictions on building multi-family homes. These laws have historically sought to exclude lower-income residents from living in more affluent suburban developments with access to high-performing schools, employment, and other amenities. In the early decades of the 20th century, these laws were also used as a vehicle for explicit racial discrimination excluding Black residents from predominantly white neighborhoods.Today, the legacy of these laws remains in place and has had far-reaching consequences for all families trying to secure housing. Despite the Fair Housing Act prohibiting discrimination based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, and other identities, the law does not prohibit class-based discrimination. This allows a legal loophole where people earning low incomes can be restricted to certain neighborhoods and excluded from living in more affluent areas with broader investment and economic opportunity. Given that Black and Latinx families have far less wealth and income than white households, on average, these exclusionary zoning laws are often used to intentionally drive people of color out of certain communities and keep neighborhoods more uniformly white. The pattern of this discriminatory practice over time has exacerbated many racial economic disparities we see today and also takes root in the current housing unaffordability crisis.
Record Single Family Investor Buying in Q1, Possible evidence of Slowdown in Q2 -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Record Single Family Investor Buying in Q1, Possible evidence of Slowdown in Q2A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler discusses the CoreLogic data: CoreLogic: Share of SF Homes Purchased by Investors Hit Record High in Q1/2022; Non-Investor Home Purchases Down Significantly YOYIn its quarterly report on “investor” home buying activity, CoreLogic reported that SF homes purchased by “investors – defined as entities (individual or corporate) who retained at least three properties simultaneously within the last 10 years – increased to a record high of 27.6% in the first quarter of 2022, up from 24.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 19.2% from the first quarter of 2021....CR Notes: Investors pulling back could be a factor in less housing demand. Housing analyst Ivy Zelman said last week about non-primary buyers (edited slightly for clarity): And we think about non-primary for those that you know, might not appreciate what that includes: second home buyers, private investors, institutional investors and the institutional investors could also incorporate what we call the intermediaries. Liquidity providers; iBuyers. So, there's been tremendous speculation and aggregate that number or the latest sort of first Q - we don't have two Q yet - aggregated to about 24% of transactions, and we think that's even understating it …...[We are seeing less] demand and seasonally worse than normal activity and increasing [cancellations] … And I do think the non-primary is a big factor. There is much more in the article.
Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Traffic of Prospective Buyers of New Houses Plunges, Homebuilders Cut Prices, Sentiment Dives - by Wolf Richter - Homebuilders have struggled for well over a year with supply and labor shortages and ridiculously spiking costs. In addition, this year, the new holy-moly mortgage rates added to the woes, and unsold inventories surged to levels not seen since 2008, as sales fell. And homebuilder stocks have gotten hammered across the board, down year-to-date between 24% and 40%.So, not all that surprisingly, the confidence of builders of single-family houses, as depicted by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July, released today, plunged by 12 points, the second biggest drop in the data going back 35 years, behind only the April 2020 lockdown cliff-dive, as “high inflation and increased interest rates stalled the housing market by dramatically slowing sales and buyer traffic,” the NAHB said.It was the seventh month-to-month drop in a row. In other words, it’s been all downhill so far this year. With today’s index value of 55, it is now back where it had been in May 2015. And it’s right back where it had been in February 2006, though it was dropping a lot more slowly back then.“Production bottlenecks, rising home building costs, and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land, construction, and financing exceeds the market value of the home,” said the NAHB.And builders are cutting prices: 13% of the builders have reacted to those conditions by reducing home prices in the past month to boost sales “and/or limit cancellations,” the report said.Regionally, the Housing Market Index plunged by the most in the West (-16 points) and the South (-15 points), with the West and the Midwest showing the worst HMI levels of 48 and 49 respectively. There are three components in the MHI: Current sales, sales outlook for the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers. Only the current sales component was still at a positive level.The index for current sales plunged 12 points in July, to a value of 64, which means that still more builders rated current sales as “good” rather than “poor” (an index value of 50 would be neutral).The index for sales over the next six months plunged by 11 points to an index value of 50, which means that builders were evenly split between those who rated their future sales as “good” and those who rated them as “poor.”And the index for Traffic of prospective buyers plunged by 11 points, to an index value of 37, after having already dropped below 50 in June. Traffic is an indication of interest by buyers, and buyers have lost interest. That’s a real problem going forward.For this component, builders were asked to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average,” or “low to very low.” Today’s index value of 37 means that more builders rated the market “low to very low” rather than “high to very high,” the second month in a row with below-50 reading:
Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs - Just one month after we warned that a Housing Crash was Imminent as a result of surging 30Y mortgage rates which have spiked at the fastest rate on record... we noted that the housing market had just gotten the most unaffordable in history... setting the stage for a sharp repricing lower in home prices. Late last week we got confirmation from Redfin, which reported that the median sale price for U.S. homes came down 0.7% from its record-breaking June peak during the four weeks ending July 10. And with the housing market undergoing a shock repricing, as bid-ask levels soar in search of marginal prices, home sales fell nearly 16% from a year ago, the largest decline since May 2020. The shift has also started impacting sale prices: They’re still growing by double digits, but the 11% year-over-year increase is the smallest in nearly two years. Sellers’ asking prices also came down 3% from their May peak as the share of homes with price drops hit another new high. According to a separate RedFin report, the number of homes for sale nationwide in June rose 2% - the first annual increase since July 2019, before the pandemic-fueled homebuying frenzy sapped the market of available homes and sent buyers into bidding wars for nearly every listing. Now, supply has built up as the combination of 5.5%-plus mortgage rates, high home prices and a faltering economy push more buyers to the sidelines, thereby creating a more balanced market. Meanwhile, as sellers slowly start to realize that the winds have turned and are about to flood home supply posted its first year-over-year increase since August 2019 as pending sales continued to slide. As shown in the next chart, active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) rose 1.3% year over year—the largest increase since August 2019. “The country’s economic woes have already cooled the housing market, and they’re likely to continue dampening demand,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “The Fed has signaled it may increase interest rates further to combat stubbornly high inflation, which could harm consumer confidence, and lower stock prices mean fewer prospective homebuyers can afford a down payment. I advise sellers to commit: If you decide to sell, do it quickly before demand potentially falls further. And price carefully—this is not the time to test the waters. You’ll do more harm than good if you overprice and have to do a price reduction or take the home off the market.” Worse, as liquidity-sensitive homeowners rush to sell ahead of the herd, Redfin has recorded more price drops than any time since at least 2015... ... and the average home will soon sell for less than its listing price: in July, the average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, declined to 101.6%. In other words, the average home sold for 1.6% above its asking price. This was down from 102.2% a year earlier. As Redfin concludes, "these changes in the housing market can be attributed to buyers reaching their limit on costs—not just of homes and mortgages, but also food, transportation and energy." ”Inflation and high mortgage rates are taking a bite out of homebuyer budgets,“ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Few people are able to afford homes costing 50% more than just two years ago in some areas, so homes are beginning to pile up on the market. As a result, prices are starting to come down from their all-time highs. We expect this environment of reduced competition and declining home prices to continue for at least the next several months.”
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 15, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 80 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 16 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage applications declined for the third week in a row, reaching the lowest level since 2000. Similarly, with most mortgage rates more than two percentage points higher than a year ago, demand for refinances continues to plummet, with MBA’s refinance index also falling to a 22-year low,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity declined for both conventional and government loans, as the weakening economic outlook, high inflation, and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand. The decline in recent purchase applications aligns with slower homebuilding activity due to reduced buyer traffic and ongoing building material shortages and higher costs.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.82 percent from 5.74 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 19% year-over-year unadjusted.The purchase index is now only 14% above the pandemic low.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.12 million SAAR in June From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slid 5.4% in June - Existing-home sales dropped for the fifth straight month in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month sales declines and one region held steady. Year-over-year sales sank in all four regions. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 5.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million in June. Year-over-year, sales fell 14.2% (5.97 million in June 2021)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1,260,000 units, an increase of 9.6% from May and a 2.4% rise from the previous year (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.6 months in May and 2.5 months in June 2021. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in June (5.12 million SAAR) were down 5.4% from the previous month and were 14.2% below the June 2021 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.26 million in June from 1.15 million in May. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was up 2.4% year-over-year (blue) in June compared to June 2021.Months of supply (red) increased to 3.0 months in June from 2.6 months in May. This was well below the consensus forecast.
Housing Bubble Woes: Sales of Homes Below $500K Plunge, Total Sales Drop to Lowest since Lockdown, Supply Jumps - By Wolf Richter . Sales of previously-owned homes of all types – single-family houses, condos, co-ops, and townhouses – dropped by 5.4% in June from May, the fifth month in a row of month-to-month declines, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales. And sales dropped by 14.2% from a year ago, the 11th month in a row of year-over-year declines.The sales declines have been accelerating, even as all kinds of inventory is suddenly coming out of the woodwork. And the excuse for the drop in sales that there is a shortage of homes on the market has vanished.Sales of single-family houses dropped by 12.8% year-over-year, and sales of condos and co-ops plunged by 24.7%, according to the National Association of Realtors today (historic data via YCharts): “Both mortgage rates and home prices have risen too sharply in a short span of time,” said the NAR in its report today. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in June fell to 5.12 million homes, the lowest since the lockdown months in May, April, and June 2020 (historic data via YCharts):I call them “holy-moly mortgage rates” because that’s the sound potential homebuyers utter when they see the mortgage payment needed to fund the ridiculously inflated price of the home they’re wanting to buy.The average mortgage rate spiked to 5.5%, up from 2.9% a year ago, according to the most recent reading by Freddie Mac. It breached the 5% line in mid-April and has been in the 5.5% range since mid-June.A 5.5% rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, when CPI inflation is over 9%, is still mind-bogglingly low, and speaks of years of interest rate repression and QE by the Fed, which has bought, among other goodies, $2.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, thereby repressing mortgage rates. But QE has ended, and QT rules, and the Fed has started to shed its mortgage-backed securities, and mortgage rates have made the first steps toward some kind of normal level, except now prices are sky-high due to years of mortgage-rate repression, and the whole thing is out of whack:The number of homes listed for sale in June jumped by 110,000 from May to 1.26 million, the highest since September, after having jumped by 113,000 in May and by 100,000 in April.All last year, the industry lamented the “housing shortage” in order to hype up the price, when it was really a refusal by homeowners who’d bought another home to put their old and now vacant home on the market because they wanted to ride up the price spike all the way to the top. This has now been accomplished, and these vacant homes are appearing on the market.
More Analysis on June Existing Home Sales --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.12 million SAAR in June Excerpt: Sales in June (5.12 million SAAR) were down 5.4% from the previous month and were 14.2% below the June 2021 sales rate. Sales are now below pre-pandemic levels....The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022.Sales declined 14.2% year-over-year compared to June 2021. This was the tenth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year....Key point on Timing of SalesExisting home sales are reported when the transaction closes. Sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Recent data shows a significant slowdown in activity starting in May and decelerating further in June.My sense is contracts for sales really declined in June, and that will show up as closed sales in July and August - so we should expect a further decline in existing home sales over the next few months. There is much more in the free article.
Slowdown in Showings Suggests Further Declines in Existing Home Sales in Coming Months --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Slowdown in Showings Suggests Further Declines in Existing Home Sales in Coming Months A brief excerpt: The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a link to their dataThis graph shows the 7-day average showings for the Twin Cities area for 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. The 7-day average showings (red) are currently off 23% from 2019. This slowdown in showings started in May and accelerated in June. The existing home sales for June will be released tomorrow, and that is for closings in June. Closings in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. This slowdown in showings suggests further declines in closed sales over the next few months. There was a huge dip in showings in 2020 (black) at the start of the pandemic, and then showing were well above 2019 (blue) levels for the rest of the year. And showings in 2021 (gold) were very strong in the first half of the year, and then were closer to 2019 in the 2nd half. Note that there were dips in showings during holidays (July 4th, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas), and also dips related to protests and curfews related to the deaths of George Floyd and Daunte Wright. 2022 (red) started off solid but is now well below the previous three years. There is much more in the article.
San Francisco Bay Area, Southern California Home Sales Crater, Prices Begin to Drop. California Pending Sales Collapse 40% -by Wolf Richter -Pending sales in California plunged by 40.6% in June from a year ago, according to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). Listings that went pending in June are expected to turn into closed sales in July, or at least many of them, and given the 40% plunge in pending sales in June, closed sales in July are going to be interesting. The discussion below is about closed sales in June.Closed sales of single-family houses in California plunged by 8.4% in June from May and by 20.9% from a year ago. Closed sales of condos plunged by 27.0% from a year ago. Beyond the three lockdown months of 2020, June sales were the lowest since 2008.All of the five regions had double-digit year-over-year sales declines – and in three of them, sales plunged by over 25%: Southern California, San Francisco Bay Area, and Inland Empire.Of all the counties tracked by the California Association of Realtors, 48 experienced double-digit declines in closed sales. The counties with the biggest year-over-year plunges in closed sales: San Benito (-48.6%), Siskiyou (-45.2%), Orange (-36.1%), and Santa Cruz (-36.1%). Here are the two]most populous regions in California, the six counties of Southern California and the five big counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: [table] Listings with price cuts rose to a share of 35.5% of total listings, the highest since 2019, with the median price cut being 5.3%.Prices had gone crazy over the past few years. But over the past few months, county by county, prices began to dip from those ridiculous spikes. So these are deals that closed in June, but were made previously. Pending sales in June – the 40% year-over-year collapse – indicate that month-to-month dips in prices wasn’t a blip and are likely to become a trend.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 29% Year-over-year -- Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 16, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, rising 29% above one year ago. With fewer owners listing homes for sale this week and last, the rapid recent run-up in active inventory has stalled somewhat. Inventory was roughly even with last year’s levels at the beginning of May and the gains mounted each week until early July. Since then, the market has stabilized just shy of a 30% increase over year ago levels. This is a welcome improvement for shoppers, but the market still lags what was once normal.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY now. However, the Realtor.com data has been stuck at up 29% YoY for 3 weeks in a row. This might be noise, or it might suggest a slowdown in inventory increases.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.559 million Annual Rate in June -- From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,559,000. This is 2.0 percent below the revised May estimate of 1,591,000 and is 6.3 percent below the June 2021 rate of 1,664,000. Single‐family housing starts in June were at a rate of 982,000; this is 8.1 percent below the revised May figure of 1,068,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 568,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,685,000. This is 0.6 percent below the revised May rate of 1,695,000, but is 1.4 percent above the June 2021 rate of 1,661,000. Single‐family authorizations in June were at a rate of 967,000; this is 8.0 percent below the revised May figure of 1,051,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 666,000 in June. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in June compared to May. Multi-family starts were up 15.6% year-over-year in June. Single-family starts (red) decreased in June and were down 15.7% year-over-year.The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery.Total housing starts in June were slightly above expectations, and starts in April and May, were revised up, combined.
June Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: June Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction - Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there are 824 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is just below the previous two months, and otherwise is the highest level since November 2006. Single family units under construction might have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 856 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since March 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are a record 1.680 million units under construction. This is above the previous record of 1.628 million units that were under construction in 1973 (mostly apartments in 1973 for the baby boom generation). There is much more in the post. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Plunges" to 55 in June -- The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 55, down from 67 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Plunges as Affordability Woes Mount Builder confidence plunged in July as high inflation and increased interest rates stalled the housing market by dramatically slowing sales and buyer traffic. In a further sign of a weakening housing market, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its seventh straight monthly decline in July, falling 12 points to 55, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This marks the lowest HMI reading since May 2020 and the largest single-month drop in the history of the HMI, except for the 42-point drop in April 2020. “Production bottlenecks, rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land, construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home,” “In another sign of a softening market, 13% of builders in the HMI survey reported reducing home prices in the past month to bolster sales and/or limit cancellations.” “Affordability is the greatest challenge facing the housing market,” . “Significant segments of the home buying population are priced out of the market. Policymakers must address supply-side issues to help builders produce more affordable housing.” ... All three HMI components posted declines in July: Current sales conditions dropped 12 points to 64, sales expectations in the next six months declined 11 points to 50 and traffic of prospective buyers fell 11 points to 37. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 65, the Midwest dropped four points to 52, the South fell eight points to 70 and the West posted a 12-point decline to 62. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was well below the consensus forecast, but still above 50. The "traffic of prospective buyers" is now well below breakeven at 37 (below 50).
Is Housing the Next Shoe to Drop for the Economy? Homebuilder Confidence Plunges in July - The confidence of homebuilders fell 12 points in July in its sharpest drop since the early days of the coronavirus, the National Association of Homebuilders reported on Monday. The organization’s monthly index dropped to 55 from 67 in June and is now at its lowest level since May 2020. “Production bottlenecks, rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land, construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home,” said association Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Georgia. “In another sign of a softening market, 13% of builders in the HMI survey reported reducing home prices in the past month to bolster sales and/or limit cancellations.” The organization’s chief economist, Robert Dietz, noted that affordability remains a critical issue for would-be buyers. “Affordability is the greatest challenge facing the housing market,” Dietz said. “Significant segments of the home buying population are priced out of the market. Policymakers must address supply-side issues to help builders produce more affordable housing.” All three of the index’s components posted declines for the month, with the current sales conditions falling 12 points to 64, future sales expectations declining 11 points to 50 and traffic of prospective buyers also dropping by 11 points to 37.
NMHC: July Apartment Market Survey shows "Barely" Tighter Conditions - From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Higher Interest Rates Begin to Impact Multifamily - Apartment sales volume fell while both equity and debt financing became more costly, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council’s Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for July 2022. However, demand in most markets was still strong relative to supply.“Continued interest rate hikes from the Fed have translated into higher longer-term rates and a higher cost of both debt and equity,” noted NMHC’s Chief Economist, Mark Obrinsky. “While these higher rates have cut into investor proceeds, many sellers are reluctant to lower prices, causing a sharp drop in sales volume.”“The apartment market recorded its sixth consecutive quarter of tightening conditions, if just barely. Fifty-six percent of respondents reported unchanged conditions, while those reporting tighter conditions slightly outpaced those reporting looser market conditions.”...Market Tightness Index came in at 51, just above the breakeven level of 50. This indicates that market conditions have become tighter, albeit with considerable variation by market. Twenty-three percent of respondents reported markets to be tighter than three months ago compared to 21% of respondents who observed looser conditions in the markets they watch. Meanwhile, over half of respondents (56%) thought that apartment market conditions were unchanged from last quarter.This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index. Any reading above 50 indicates tighter conditions from the previous quarter. Even though the index declined in July, this indicates market conditions tightened slightly in July for the sixth consecutive quarter. This suggests rent growth will slow.
New York tried to make apartments affordable. The opposite happened. - — As the Covid-19 pandemic hit New York City in the spring of 2020, a subsequent exodus of residents ushered in a seemingly new era for the city’s ever-turbulent rental housing market. Landlords offered months of free rent in some of the priciest neighborhoods, amid grim predictions of long-term damage to the city. It did not last. As the nation’s largest city bounces back from the pandemic, a housing crisis decades in the making rages. Stories abound of apartment hunters fighting bidding wars and languishing in hourlong lines for packed open houses. And after eight years of a former mayor who made affordable housing a cornerstone of his policymaking, rents are hitting new records every month. The Manhattan and Brooklyn skylines are swollen with new development, and yet Manhattan’s median price just reached $5,000 for the first time ever. The causes are myriad: A long-simmering housing shortage, landlords making up for lost time and a migration back to urban living — all amid rising inflation. The issue could grow even worse now that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, pushing up home borrowing costs, and real estate experts say there’s no end in sight for New York’s housing crunch. One real estate broker described “a frenzy” to find apartments, recounting one client scrambling to pull together a $3,000 offer on a $2,700 apartment — only to be outbid by someone willing to pay $3,200. “People are starting to feel this kind of desperation,” said Anthony Flores, the real estate agent with the firm Casa Blanca. When apartments come on the market, “It’s like throwing raw meat in a pool of piranhas.” Rental prices are up nationwide. But New York City is one of the most expensive places in the U.S., and its issues are deep-seated. Housing development has lagged far behind population growth, largely due to restrictive regulations and high construction costs. The share of rent-burdened households paying more than 30 percent of their income for housing has steadily increased, while the number of apartments available at low rents has shrunk — leaving the lowest-income households with especially few options. Tenants in rent-regulated units, which represent about half of the city’s rental housing stock, are also not immune: The board that annually determines how much to raise prices on these apartments voted in June to approve the highest rent increases in nearly a decade. “The underlying reasons haven’t changed that much,” . “But the narrative is appropriately exacerbated, because the landscape for finding market-rate rentals that are even available seems pretty grim.”
AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows "increasing demand" in June -Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index continues to stabilize but remains healthy: Architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in June, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). The ABI score for June was 53.2. While this score is down slightly from May’s score of 53.5, it still indicates moderately strong business conditions overall (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month). Also in June, both the new project inquiries and design contracts indexes moderated from May but continued to show growth, posting scores of 58.2 and 52.2 respectively.“Ongoing project activity at architecture firms as well as new work coming online remains strong, pushing project backlogs up to seven months on average nationally,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “In spite of heavy workloads, employment at architecture firms has stabilized, suggesting that adding new employees is becoming even more challenging as the building construction sector continues to recover.”
• Regional averages: West (57.8); Midwest (54.8); South (51.5); Northeast (48.7)
• Sector index breakdown: institutional (53.5); mixed practice (52.8); multi-family residential (52.6); commercial/industrial (52.5)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 53.2 in June, down from 53.5 in May. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has been positive for 17 consecutive months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment in 2022 and into 2023.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7.4% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - From CoStar: STR: US Hotels Reverse Demand Trends as Performance Recovers Following July FourthAfter two consecutive weeks of lower demand around the Fourth of July holiday, U.S. hotel performance bounced back from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through July 16. July 10-16, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 72.0% (-7.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.23 (+14.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$113.28 (+6.4%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase further seasonally over the next month.
US Natural Gas Prices Re-Spike, after the Big Plunge - By Wolf Richter - Just when we thought the plunge in natural gas prices might take pressure off inflation, it starts all over again. By early June, the price of natural gas futures in the US had spiked to over $9.50 per million Btu, roughly triple the price from a year earlier, and quadruple the price in 2020. This spike was caused by US exports of LNG, which are booming, with new LNG terminals coming online one after the other since 2016. Exports added to demand for US natural gas and increasingly linked US natural prices to global LNG prices.And then, on June 8, a fire shut down the huge Freeport LNG natural gas liquefaction plant in Texas, which cut LNG export capacity by 17%. Over the following four weeks, US natural gas futures plunged by over 40% into the $5.50 range. And it was cited as one of the reasons why inflation already peaked again.So here we go again. This morning, natural gas futures jumped to $8.29 per million Btu, adding to the jumps over the past week. The price has regained much of the lost spike, and is up about 30% from a month ago, and has more than doubled from a year ago. So this isn’t going to help CPI readings at all:The Freeport LNG plant remains shut over safety concerns. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) said on Tuesday that it would inspect the plant in September. So maybe, the plant will start loading LNG tankers again later this year.In the summer in the US, power consumption spikes due to increased use of air conditioning. This summer, there has been a deadly heatwave with blistering triple-digit temperatures over much of the US, and power consumption strained electric grids, and demand for natural gas by power generators spiked.So maybe it was a good thing that LNG exports got cut just ahead of the heatwave and left some extra gas for US consumption to power air conditioners and keep the price in the US from spiking from the stratosphere into the ionosphere. This is the development of LNG exports from the US to the rest of the world. The US also exports natural gas via pipeline to Mexico mostly, but also to Canada, and those exports of pipeline natural gas are not included here. This chart shows just LNG exports, though April, the latest data available from the EIA and doesn’t yet show the decline in exports due to fire at the LNG terminal:Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 251,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 251,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 244,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,750 to 236,000.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,500.The previous week was unrevised.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
Oil Prices Blamed For Inflation When The Driver Is Really Food --Gas prices have been a major factor for the increase in CPI, but when prices dipped inflation remained stubbornly high. The reason was the constant increase in the cost of food and beverages. For stocks to really reverse the current downtrend, food and beverage prices need to drop in order for the consumer to continue to spend. When gas prices surge many of us can try to cut back on driving to save some money but it is far more difficult to cut back on feeding one’s family regardless of price. The answer to inflation will have to come from somewhere else, instead of blaming Ukraine. Gas prices began to rise almost a year before Russia invaded the country as did the price of food and beverages. Both began to climb in after March of 2020 when the economy was flooded with federal spending. Fiscal policy is responsible for inflation more so than monetary policy. The Fed is fighting the Treasury’s battle and stands a good chance of messing it up.
New Vehicle Inventory Stuck Near Record Low, Shortages Shift to Fuel-Efficient Cars, Prices Hit Record. But Used Vehicle Price Spike Runs out of Fuel amid Plenty of Supply by Wolf Richter - The inventory shortages at new vehicle dealers continue unabated, and inventories remain desperately low, but the shortages are shifting, as demand has shifted, and there is now supply piling up, for example at Ram dealers, while fuel-efficient vehicles are essentially sold out, and EV models have long waiting lists – as people are tired of getting hammered by high fuel prices. The number of new vehicles in “in stock” on dealer lots and “in transit” to dealers dipped to 1.12 million vehicles at the end of June, down by 70%, or by 2.61 million vehicles, from the same period in 2019, according to estimates byCox Automotive, based on its Dealertrack data. On this basis, new vehicle inventories haven’t improved since December. By comparison, in 2019, new vehicle inventory averaged 3.66 million vehicles. The term “inventory” accounts for what is “in stock” and what is “in transit.” And it may include units that have been pre-sold. A dealer’s website typically shows three labels next to the vehicles in their inventory: “in stock,” “in transit,” and “sold.” The average asking price (listing price) shows that dealers are in no mood to offer deals yet. The average listing price in June rose 11.5% from a year ago, to a record $45,976, according to Cox Automotive.Cox also said that during the last week of June, asking prices “began to retreat slightly.” So maybe possibly perhaps, dealers are running into just a tad of price resistance in certain corners of the market.Asking prices fell in January, February, and March, only to do a U-Turn in April – and part of this was seasonal as January and February are the worst months for dealers, when volume tends to plunge from the December binge. By June, they hit a new record, up by 11.5% year-over-year. This still speaks of a hot under-supplied market:The average transaction price – the price at which vehicles were sold and delivered – jumped by 14% year-over-year, to a record $45,844 in June, according to J.D. Power data. Compared to June 2019, this was up by 36% or by over $10,000. At these prices, dealers made record gross profits per vehicle delivered. Including finance and insurance sales (F&I), dealers made on average $5,123 in gross profit per vehicle, up by $1,174 from the already high levels of June 2021, according to J.D. Power estimates.The chart shows ATPs for December and June of each year. Before the pandemic, there was an established seasonality, where the ATP hit a high in December but dropped from there to June every year. But in June 2020, the ATP in June was level with December for the first time. And in 2021 and 2022, the ATP just jumped from December to June without regard to seasonality. The green line connects the Decembers:Plenty of supply at Dodge and Ram dealers: Including in stock and in transit, Dodge dealers ended June with 90 days’ supply, and Ram dealers with 81 days’ supply. The industry considers 60 days about ideal between tight and sufficient. Fuel efficient vehicles essentially out of stock. At the low end of supply in the non-luxury segments were the Asian brands with fuel-efficient models that were essentially out of stock: Toyota Corolla, Kia Telluride, Toyota Camry, Hyundai Palisade, and Kia Sportage. Supply of full-size pickups is growing: At the high end of the 30 top-selling models were three pickup trucks and two SUVs: Ram 1500 (79 days), Ford Escape (69 days), followed by Jeep Compass, Ford F-150, and Chevrolet Silverado. This is now a new inventory problem: the wrong inventory. Through 2020 and 2021, pickup trucks were particularly hard to get, and everyone wanted them. But then gas prices spiked, and suddenly the cost of filling up become one of the purchase considerations, and pickup trucks lost their edge. Demand swiveled to more fuel-efficient vehicles.
What Freight Volume and Freight Rates Say About the Shift of Consumer Spending from Goods Back to Services - The thing about American consumers is that they were supposed to splurge on goods during the stimulus era in 2020 and 2021, when free money washed over the land, and when spending on many discretionary services collapsed. And they did. Spending on goods exploded, particularly durable goods, in a record historic spike amid grotesquely overstimulated demand. But spending on discretionary services – airline tickets, lodging, rental cars, music and sports venues, elective healthcare services, etc. – collapsed. Then with the re-opening of those discretionary services, consumers were supposed to shift back from buying goods to splurging on services, which was widely predicted, and even the Fed used it as one of the reasons why inflation in goods was going to be “temporary.” And consumers did splurge on services, and they are still doing it – see the travel nightmare that has unfolded at airports as airlines weren’t able to deal with the flood of travelers. The growth in spending on services, even adjusted for raging inflation, has been strong. Services account for 62% of total consumer spending. Spending on services, adjusted for raging inflation, rose by 0.3% in May from April and by 4.7% year-over-year. Spending for June won’t be released until late July. And as consumer spending shifted to services, spending on goods was supposed to fall, adjusted for inflation, and it did fall but has remained above pre-pandemic trend. On Friday, we got retail sales for June, which is what retailers report – not what consumers report – and retailers reported surprisingly good sales in June. Everyone knew that raging inflation was going to take a bite out of it, and everyone knew that consumers were shifting their spending back to services, and so hopes for retail spending had been low, but in June consumers did blow a surprisingly large amount of money at retailers. Another measure of the goods business in the US is shipment volume – but for the overall economy. Shipment volume is tracked by the Cass Freight Index, which covers all modes of transportation, but is centered on trucking, with truckload shipments representing over half of the dollar amounts, rail in second place, and less-than-truckload shipments in third place, followed by parcel services, and others. But it does not include bulk commodities. The Cass Freight Index for shipments in June (red line) was down 2.3% from the red-hot June last year. This was the third month in a row of year-over-year declines, after the 2.7% decline in May and the 0.5% decline in April – relatively modest declines from a very strong year. And May and June 2022 still beat May and June 2019 (gray line). The huge plunge of shipment volume during the lockdowns in April 2020 (green line) was followed by a rapid recovery. By October 2020, shipment volume already exceeded October 2019 and the gap widened into the holidays of 2020. In 2021, shipment volume continued to boom, and over the last few months of 2021 didn’t even go into the seasonal decline, but just kept rising. That’s how huge the demand for goods was – one of the reasons supply chains got tangled up. Everyone predicted that this boom in goods would eventually decline and return to trend as consumers shifted spending back to services – but shipping volume didn’t decline by much.
BLS: Eight States Set New Record Series Low Unemployment rates in June - From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary -Unemployment rates were lower in June in 10 states and the District of Columbia, higher in 2 states, and stable in 38 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier....Minnesota had the lowest jobless rate in June, 1.8 percent, closely followed by Nebraska, 1.9 percent. The next lowest rates were in New Hampshire and Utah, 2.0 percent each. The rates in Minnesota and New Hampshire set new series lows, as did the rates in the following six states (all state series begin in 1976): Alabama (2.6 percent), Georgia (2.9 percent), Kentucky (3.7 percent), Louisiana (3.8 percent), Mississippi (3.8 percent), and Missouri (2.8 percent). The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.5 percent, followed by New Mexico, 4.9 percent.This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. Eight states set new series record low unemployment rates in June, and currently 14 states are at series record low unemployment rates.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 251,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 251,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 244,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,750 to 236,000.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,500.The previous week was unrevised.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
An Amazon worker making $15.75 an hour took a second job and is still having trouble paying for gas, as a record number of Americans are working 70-hour weeks to deal with inflation - A typical '9 to 5' is gradually becoming less of a reality for many Americans. That's because more of them have to take on a second full-time job than they did in the past. While fewer workers overall have multiple jobs than before the pandemic, more of them hold two full-time positions now than at any other point, at least since the Bureau of Labor Statistics' began collecting this data in 1994. The BLS defines a full time position as more than 35 hours per week at one job, so that's at least 70 hours for the workers in question. 426,000 Americans worked that much in June, compared to 308,000 in February 2020, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank's analysis of BLS data. Inflation isn't helping. Although wages have been rising over the past two years as workers have negotiated their way to higher salaries, only a handful of them have managed to secure paychecks that outpace record-high inflation, which hit a 40-year peak in June. Inflation is starting to cool down, but as the BLS data shows, it's not fast enough to keep Americans from taking on extra employment. One such worker is Albert Elliott, an Amazon warehouse worker in Raleigh, North Carolina, who recently started a second job as a janitor at a community college. Gas prices become prohibitively expensive for many with surging inflation, and Elliott told The Washington Post's Lauren Kaori Gurley that it's why he had to take on the extra gig. "Gas is just through the roof. Unless it's payday, I put in all the money I have at the time, sometimes borrowing money from family and friends," he told the Post. "I began to realize that what I was making at Amazon was not enough to pay for gas. My biggest concern is not being able to get to work to make any money. You have to pretty much rob Peter to pay Paul."Gas prices aren't the only essential cost that have forced people to look for extra employment. Grocery inflation is at its highest point since 1979. Prices for food at home, a category that includes groceries, have risen 11.9% in May year-over-year, according to the Consumer Price Index. Milk and dairy prices have gone up even more, with meat and fish up 14.2% and eggs up 32.2% over May 2021."There are people who want multiple jobs to make more money, and they find that opportunity when the labor market is stronger," Nick Bunker, director of economic research at Indeed's Hiring Lab, told The Washington Post. "But I would say for many people, the urgency of finding more income or a second job or third job has intensified with inflation."
The value of the federal minimum wage is at its lowest point in 66 years - EPI Blog -The value of the federal minimum wage has reached its lowest point in 66 years, according to an EPI analysis of recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Accounting for price increases in June, the current federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour is now worth less than at any point since February 1956. At that time, the federal minimum wage was 75 cents per hour, or $7.19 in June 2022 dollars.Last July marked the longest period without a minimum wage increase since Congress established the federal minimum wage in 1938, and continued inaction on the federal minimum wage over the past year has only further eroded the minimum wage’s value. As shown in Figure A, a worker paid the current $7.25 federal minimum wage earns 27.4% less in inflation-adjusted terms than what their counterpart was paid in July 2009 when the minimum wage was last increased, and 40.2% less than a minimum wage worker in February 1968, the historical high point of the minimum wage’s value.The minimum wage increases of the late 1960s expanded the coverage of the minimum wage to include industries like agriculture, nursing homes, restaurants, and other service industries. The earlier exemption of these industries from the federal minimum wage disproportionately excluded Black workers from this important labor protection. The application of the minimum wage to these industries raised workers’ incomes and directly reduced Black-white earnings inequality. Congress’s failure to raise the minimum on a regular basis in the interim, however, has eroded the value of the federal minimum wage and worsened racial earnings gaps.
COVID sick leave crisis: Workers are running out of time off, and companies don’t care.Slate Nearly two and a half years into a pandemic that has transformed many people’s work lives, companies still haven’t figured out how to manage COVID-related sick leave. American workers, who historically have been offered five to 10 paid sick days per year—if they’re allotted sick time at all—have found, unsurprisingly, that’s just not adequate right now. A single bout of COVID can knock out all of someone’s sick days for the year. That leaves many more months to get through where other illness or injury might arise (to say nothing of time people might need for long COVID, or kids who are sick with COVID or quarantined from day care). The latest COVID variants, which are driving a wave of reinfections, will only make things worse. But many employers haven’t adjusted their sick leave policies to fit that reality.illnesses don’t hold off just because you’re new to a company.) This has caused problems for multiple people who have contacted me, like this one: I recently came down with COVID. I let my supervisor know, explaining I’d need a few days off to sleep it off before I’m able to work again. (It’s a WFH job, so the two weeks isolation wouldn’t directly interfere with work.) Despite being salaried and having benefits, I was told that since I have only worked there for two months, I’ve only accrued two days of PTO (one sick, one vacation) but our flex time allows me to work when I’m feeling well enough to do so, or I could always take unpaid days off if I needed more than two days off for COVID. In other words, I was told my options were essentially to work through it or get a cut in my pay. …
CDC ends its COVID program for cruise ships saying they can ‘manage their own COVID-19 mitigation’ The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ended its COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships on Monday. "CDC has worked closely with the cruise industry, state, territorial, and local health authorities, and federal and seaport partners to provide a safer and healthier environment for cruise passengers and crew," the agency's website reads. "Cruise ships have access to guidance and tools to manage their own COVID-19 mitigation programs." The CDC added that "while cruising poses some risk of COVID-19 transmission, CDC will continue to publish guidance to help cruise ships continue to provide a safer and healthier environment for crew, passengers, and communities going forward." The agency transitioned to a voluntary program for COVID-19 mitigation cruise ships earlier this year, which offered recommendations on safety measures like testing and vaccination. Cruise lines that opted into the program agreed to follow those recommendations. The CDC said on its website that it will keep giving testing recommendations for cruise ship operators, and that vessels will keep reporting cases to the agency. The change comes as capacity and occupancy levels on ships have ramped back up, more than two years after the pandemic shut the industry down. Cruise Lines International Association, the industry's largest trade organization, welcomed the end of the program "in favor of a set of guidelines for public health operations on cruise ships," spokesperson Anne Madison told USA TODAY in an emailed statement. "We look forward to reviewing the details, which we understand will be posted on the CDC website in the coming days," she continued. "This is an important step forward in the CDC aligning the guidelines for cruise with those it has established for other travel, hospitality, and entertainment sectors."
Texas school district requiring students to lock phones in pouches during class — One Central Texas school district will require students to lock up their phones during the school day in a “magnetically sealed pouch,” its superintendent wrote in a letter to parents. Thorndale ISD, which is located in Milam County, will start the policy in the next school year at Thorndale middle and high schools. The district has about 600 students, according to state data. The program, called Yondr, requires students to secure their phones in a personal pouch that they will keep with them during the day. Students must bring the pouch to and from school daily. When students leave school, they tap the pouch to an unlocking base to access their phones, smart watches and wireless earbuds. In the letter, Superintendent Adam Ivy wrote district staff members visited another ISD to see how it used the Yondr program. They spoke with teachers who said engagement is better, distractions are fewer and cyberbullying and cyber safety issues were “almost…non-existent,” the letter said. When it comes to lockdowns, parent-student communication and other scenarios, Ivy wrote the Texas district said: “that they had found no credible reason not to implement the program and that the benefits have completely outweighed any growing pains.” The letter’s frequently asked questions section said law enforcement believe it safer for students to refrain from using devices in emergency situations. But the district is working on a plan for when devices are necessary for lockdown situations. Students who do not follow school rules will face $15 fines on each offense and suspension days based on the number of offenses. “We have spent a lot of time discussing this and trying to play devil’s advocate to look for holes in the system,” Ivy wrote. “After much thought, prayer and discussion we believe that this will absolutely be in the best interest of our students’ education, health and safety, which is the litmus test we use for all such decisions.”
Mississippi school board removes policy barring people with guns on school campuses - The Mississippi Board of Education voted Thursday to repeal a policy barring guns in state public schools in order to comply with the state’s enhanced-carry law. The Board voted to repeal a 1990 policy prohibiting “the possession of pistols, firearms, or weapons in any form by any person other than duly authorized law enforcement officials on school premises or at school functions.”The Board ruled that the policy, which last underwent revisions in December 2015, conflicted with Mississippi’s 2011 enhanced-carry law, which authorizes individuals with the enhanced license to enter areas where those with a standard license cannot, including “any elementary or secondary school facility” and “any school, college or professional athletic event not related to firearms.”The temporary policy requires “each local school district (to) have a policy concerning weapons on school premises.”The Mississippi Free Press was the first to report on the Board ruling.General Counsel Erin Meyer referred to an opinion issued in 2013 by then-Attorney General Jim Hood (D), which said that an individual with an enhanced concealed carry permit may carry a concealed weapon on a Mississippi public school campus. He noted that schools “may restrict individuals to parts of the campus generally open to the public.”During the Board meeting Thursday, Meyer said the 1990 policy “predates any notable school shootings or the adoption of our enhanced carry permits.”“This rule currently conflicts with Mississippi’s enhanced carry statutes, so the enhanced carry statute authorizes individuals who have the proper certification to carry weapons in certain areas that are enumerated in statutes,” she said. “That includes elementary and secondary school facilities, so our policy is currently in conflict with that. State board policies can’t prohibit something that is authorized in law.”
Michigan teachers describe rampant illness, burnout and other dire conditions in 2021-22 school year - During the summer break, teachers and other school staff throughout the country have had a brief opportunity to reflect on the experiences of the 2021-22 school year. The Michigan Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee (MERFSC) asked teachers, para-professionals, other school staff and parents to tell us about their school year, the state of the public schools and the broader social problems they confront in their classrooms. Their answers paint a picture of harrowing conditions throughout Michigan schools. In Michigan, deaths from COVID-19 are even more common than they are nationwide. Across the state, at least 36,982 people have died from the virus, equal to about 370 deaths for every 100,000 people. Michigan has the 10th highest death rate per capita. In fact, right now the BA.5 Omicron subvariant is again driving up cases, hospitalizations and deaths throughout the state and across the country. Schools throughout Michigan, like the rest of the country, were largely forced to stay open, even in the face of skyrocketing cases and infections. As for the mitigation efforts at the schools, teachers and staff report these measures were largely ineffective.One Detroit Public Schools Community District (DPSCD) teacher described the situation at her school. “COVID-19 mitigation measures consisted mostly of contact tracing, but it stopped after a while. During contact tracing, teachers who were vaccinated did not have to quarantine for the recommended time if they had no symptoms. We all know some people were asymptomatic and could have it, so I was very upset about that. “Social distancing was not enforced. Testing was not enforced. The kids were supposed to get tested during their lunch hour. Students were telling me they had to leave the testing location where they were in line because there were too many students. Our lunches were by grade level so it can be a couple hundred per lunch period getting tested.” Similar situations were described in other districts throughout the state. “I was ill once with COVID. It is impossible for me to quantify how often or how many of my students were ill with COVID, other than to say that it was MANY of them. There were a lot of COVID-related absences among my 180+ students this year. As for colleagues in the building, I would say that the majority of us were sick with it at some point.”Despite the major disruptions to the school year caused by the pandemic, standardized testing was largely continued throughout the year. “The tests continued as if there was no pandemic, and no one was affected,” one DPSCD teacher explained.Teachers expressed many concerns with the continuation of standardized testing, including that their own evaluations are dependent on how well their students perform.Another Detroit teacher explained, “Our evaluations required us to do group work. How do you social distance in our small classrooms and do group work with 3 or 4 students working together, or even partners? It’s impossible! However, we were penalized on our evaluations if we didn’t do group work. This is of a piece with the Common Core state standards and the standardized testing during the pandemic. Neither the standardized testing of the students nor the evaluations of teachers, 40 percent of which is based on those standardized tests, was fair. It was a cruel exercise to make deeper attacks on education under the guise of ‘failing schools’.”
Staffing crisis in Florida schools intensifies as schools struggle to fill 9,500 vacancies - State education officials in Florida have reported an alarming shortage of teachers and support staff heading into the start of the fall semester as counties struggle to fill thousands of vacancies. According to the Florida Educations Association (FEA), there are currently more than 9,500 empty teacher and staff positions across the state’s K-12 schools. In Southwest Florida, educators are reporting there aren’t enough teachers to cover all classrooms or to maintain auxiliary functions in schools this week as the year-round period begins. A significant campaign has been launched to re-acquire former and retired teachers but low pay is dissuading many from returning. School districts of both Collier and Lee counties have more than 150 open teaching positions and officials have worriedly conveyed that the likelihood of filling a substantial amount is improbable. The president of the Volusia United Educators union, Elizabeth Albert, told WESH2 news that the county is facing a shortage of 365 teachers for the fall. The massive shortage has come principally from the breakdown of public education due to the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the premature back-to-school campaign demanded by the political establishment and sanctioned by the unions. This has infected hundreds of thousands of students and teachers during the past two years. The American Academy of Pediatrics has recorded a minimum of 796,000 infections among Florida’s children ages 0-14 and at least 45 pediatric deaths among ages 0-15. The emergence of COVID-19 precipitated a wholesale breakdown of public education, as educators have faced arduous workloads and schedules, unbearable stress and mounting fear and anxiety over contracting the disease while working in person. Volusia County School District officials held a day-long job fair in April where 135 teachers had been hired following the county’s adoption of starting pay at $47,000, but this has proven to be an ineffective bandaid as teacher positions have remained stubbornly empty. Among support staff in Volusia there are exactly 409 vacancies. Christy Mahaney, coordinator for recruitment and retention for the district, touted the raising of support staff pay to a minimum wage of $15 this month as a tactic to lure in more workers. Such a miserable wage is only a few thousand dollars higher than Volusia’s poverty threshold and barely enough to eke out a living given the soaring cost of inflation. Both Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, two of the largest districts in the state, are facing severe shortages of teachers that parallel the numbers seen last year. Vickie Cartwright, the superintendent of Broward Schools, noted to CBS News that the district had a shortage of 502 teacher openings. Low pay is a major factor driving teachers away from the profession as South Florida represents one of the most expensive regions in the country, which has seen housing prices skyrocket in recent months due to inflation. In Miami-Dade, school district officials revealed 475 vacancies for the upcoming school year with COVID-19 sickness and deplorable working conditions being the source of the shortage. Cartwright referred to a significant drop in morale among educators who have been forced to endure two years of psychological exhaustion and pandemic-related stress.
Miami-Dade rejects sex ed textbooks over concerns it violates ‘Don’t Say Gay’ - — Miami-Dade County students could go months without sex education books after school board members this week rejected two proposed textbooks over concerns they violate the state’s “Parental Rights in Education” bill, known by opponents as “Don’t Say Gay.” The decision, which came down to a tight 5-4 vote on Wednesday, marks one of the first major instances of the contentious measure shaping local school policies, an action that came amid parents opposing the books for broaching topics like abortion and contraceptives. Rejecting the textbooks puts Miami in a precarious situation by leaving the school district without an approved sex ed curriculum for middle and high school students with the fall semester less than a month away. Miami-Dade is the fourth largest school district in the country. “Some of the chapters are extremely troublesome,” said board member Mari Tere Rojas, who voted against the books. “I do not consider them to be age appropriate. In my opinion, they go beyond what the state standards are.” Wednesday’s vote came after three hours of public comment and debate over the two “Comprehensive Health Skills” books for students in middle and high school, texts that have been under scrutiny in Miami for months now. Miami-Dade school officials recommended approving the textbooks following a public hearing on June 8 to field some 278 petitions against the materials, which the district denied. Some parents argued the lessons extend beyond what schools should be educating students on sex education while others contested that rejecting the books would allow a vocal group to drive the decision for a school district serving some 340,000 students. The outcry in Miami against the sex education books included the local chapter of County Citizens Defending Freedom, a conservative group that aims to “defend their freedoms and liberties at the local level.” Under Florida law, any parent can opt their child out of sex education lessons. “Our current … process defends parents and their children who do not want to be exposed to this,” said Steve Gallon III, the board’s vice chair who supported the sex education textbooks. “But we cannot deny parents who want to have access for their children to this critically important information.” The move by the school board shows how Florida’s Parental Rights in Education bill, passed earlier this year and championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, is shaping school curriculum in the wake of its passage. The law prohibits teachers from leading classroom lessons on gender identity or sexual orientation for students in kindergarten through third grade. It also prohibits these lessons for older students unless they are “age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate.”
‘Moms for Liberty’ mobilize for school board races — with DeSantis in tow -— Rejecting critical race theory and mask mandates. Energizing parents to get involved in school board races. “Mamas for DeSantis.”It was all part of the first ever summit thrown by the conservative group Moms for Liberty, providing a glimpse into the growing contentious education movement in Florida and the nation.Hundreds of parental rights advocates descended upon downtown Tampa this week for the three-day event, which offered attendees seminars on subjects like gender ideology and social emotional learning while also attempting to inspire and train possible school board candidates.Winning school board seats proved to be a critical goal among parents at the summit. Many had grown frustrated by local policies — especially pandemic rules such as masking students and distance learning — and for Gov. Ron DeSantis, who encouraged attendees to withstand the political pressure from woke corporations and elsewhere as Friday morning’s special guest.“Now is not the time to be a shrinking violet. Now is not the time to let them grind you down,” DeSantis told the cheering audience. “You’ve got to stand up and you’ve got to fight.”Polarizing education issues have emerged as huge motivators in electoral politics in recent years, highlighted by Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who tapped into parental frustration and anger over Covid-19 rules and how race is taught to beat his opponent last year. DeSantis too has consistently touted parental authority in education and has strenuously defended Florida’s “Parental Rights in Education” law, labeled as “Don’t Say Gay” by opponents, which bans teachers from leading classroom lessons on gender identity and sexual orientation for kids in kindergarten through third grade.Some 500 people, mostly mothers and some grandmothers, attended the “Joyful Warriors” Tampa summit. Some attendees wore Moms for Liberty-branded gear and carried signs declaring that “We do not co-parent with the government” and “Mamas for DeSantis” in what was heralded as the “year of the parents.”The breakout panels were closed to media but touched on a range of topics central to the group’s conservative stance, including a legal forum about the rights of parents and students, one on “enforcing” First Amendment rights and a “look behind the education curtain,” which was led by Moms for Liberty founders Tiffany Justice and Tina Descovich — both former Florida school board members. Others scheduled to speak at the summit include Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Betsy DeVos, the education secretary under former President Donald Trump. Since launching in Florida in 2021 amid the pandemic, Moms for Liberty has exploded in growth and is closing in on 100,000 members nationwide. The group is known for being vocal at school board meetings, pushing back against policies they perceive as liberal in schools and supporting the removal of LGTBQ-themed books in libraries.
Portland Parents Encouraged To Send Their Kids To “Social Justice Summer Camp” - Hard left ideologues have long sought to target other people's children as a means to indoctrinate the next generation while they are young, naive and easily manipulated. Frankly, it's the only way to effectively spread what amounts to cultural Marxism – Most adults with normal upbringings are going to ask too many questions and have too many criticisms. Leftists see the stalking and grooming of young people as fair game, because in their minds the ends justify the means and their agenda is viewed as sacrosanct. In other words, mentally enslave the children of today and you own the adult voters of tomorrow. The latest attempt is a relatively new camp program in Portland, Oregon operated by a group called 'Budding Roses' (a rather unsettling name considering the topic). The group was founded as a part of the Black Rose Anarchist Foundation and the camp is open to students from 4th to 8th grade. The curriculum of Budding Roses has a mix of online and camp lessons, but they appear to all have the same basic bent:
- Black As Resistance: 4 Kids – Your children can learn all about white colonialism, anti-blackness, “self defense,” and more!
- Police Abolition – Imagining a world without police.
- Transformative Justice – Individuals “affected by injustice” address their grievances and demand reparations.
- White Supremacy Reflection – Terms like “white supremacy.” “intersectionality,” and “privilege” are explained. Learn about the original sin of being white!
- Writing People In Prison – Want your children to start a correspondence with convicted criminals? Budding Roses will teach them how!
The list continues, but you get the general idea. We have seen many such indoctrination attempts over the past few years, including a woke sex education camp for children based out of Hazard, Kentucky which covered such fun topics as the different methods for masturbation. Numerous other camps across the US have adopted the gender identity insanity, allowing biological males to be housed with biological females as long as they identify as “trans.” This same philosophy has led to some horrible incidents of manipulation and victimization in public schools.
National Education Association’s annual convention ignores plight of US teachers fighting COVID and austerity - The largest union in the US, the National Education Association (NEA), held its annual Representative Assembly (RA) July 3-6 in Chicago. The event occurred amid the gravest assault on public education and democratic rights in American history. As the caucuses met, Omicron BA.5 surged, COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations leapt, and teachers and schoolchildren continued to die. All the while, inflation careened through family budgets like a wrecking ball. Universally, educators have described the 2021-22 school year as the most difficult in their careers. Uncounted thousands of educators died from COVID-19. Tens of thousands continue to suffer from Long COVID. Many have had repeated infections.Attending the RA were reportedly 4,500 delegates plus 1,500 online, down from 10,000 in 1998. The dwindling numbers reflect the ever-widening gulf between teachers and the well-heeled union hierarchy. That gulf was underscored by the speeches which all but ignored the crisis in education. NEA President Betsy Pringle opened the event on July 3. Her keynote address mentioned COVID-19 in one phrase. But this was only as context for “lifting up our incredible students” and “our phenomenal educators.”One would be excused for mistaking the union president for a corporate motivational speaker. Teachers were told, “Resistance is the secret of joy,” “Justice must be an action!” “Every day, all day, we will remember who we are!” concluding, “Delegates, lift up your heads, the sun is still shining.”Pringle’s phony hoopla was only window-dressing for the real message of the RA—the bureaucracy’s urgent need to get out the vote for the mid-term elections and an endorsement of President Joe Biden’s “Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment.”The event’s tone was nervous, with the union clearly worried about losing their “seat at the table” should the Democrats be trounced in November. The union’s fear of their membership was also demonstrated by the tightened security around the RA and the removal of the proposed measures—called “new business items'—from the public portion of its website.A nonbinding vision statement was highlighted as the main achievement of the RA, the result of a year’s work, according to the union. The statement calls for “safe, just, and equitable public schools.” This amorphous goal was then tied to a series of “core principles,” including restorative justice, culturally competent instruction, an end to discriminatory discipline practices, and “community-centered” schools. The union said nothing about draconian budget cuts looming in New York, California or around the country, much less waging a fight for high-quality public education for all.
Depression is likely not caused by a chemical imbalance in the brain, study says – A recent review study is pushing back against long-held views in medicine that depression is caused by a serotonin imbalance in the brain.Researchers from University College London conducted an umbrella review of past meta-studies and systematic analyses of depression’s relationship to serotonin activity that included tens of thousands of participants.The study published this week in the journal Molecular Psychiatry concluded that there’s “no clear evidence” that serotonin levels or serotonin activity is responsible for depression. Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that plays a key role in governing mood, sleep, digestion and other body functions. For years, a chemical imbalance of serotonin has been widely viewed as the culprit for depression, resulting in the widespread use of antidepressants like selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), which boosts serotonin in the brain. Researchers say the review calls into question the basis for the use of antidepressants. “It is always difficult to prove a negative, but I think we can safely say that after a vast amount of research conducted over several decades, there is no convincing evidence that depression is caused by serotonin abnormalities, particularly by lower levels or reduced activity of serotonin,” professor Joanna Moncrieff, the study’s lead author, said in a statement.
Autoimmune patients are losing access to essential medications as states crack down on abortions. The reason? The drugs can also be used to end pregnancies. --Autoimmune patients in states with abortion restrictions are losing access to essential medications because some of the drugs may also be used to end a pregnancy.Becky Schwarz, a Virginia-based lupus patient, told The Los Angeles Times that within a week of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade her rheumatologist refused to refill her methotrexate prescription. Methotrexate, a chemotherapy and immunosuppressive drug, is widely prescribed for patients living with chronic autoimmune conditions, like lupus and Crohn's disease. The medication also has an off-label use of inducing abortion when taken in high doses and can be used to treat ectopic pregnancies, which are the leading cause of maternal mortality, accounting for 10-15% of all maternal deaths. "This is a notice to let you know that we are pausing all prescriptions and subsequent refills of methotrexate," read a message Schwarz received from her rheumatologist, The Times reported. "This decision has been made in response to the reversal of Roe vs. Wade."In Virginia, abortion is not currently banned, though GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin is pursuing a 15-week cutoff. However, in a post-Roe political landscape, confusion over who can prescribe medications that can terminate pregnancies may be preventing patients like Schwarz from accessing their medicine. "I have gotten some reports where children have been denied methotrexate for their juvenile arthritis until they've proven they're not pregnant," Dr. Cuoghi Edens, an assistant professor of internal medicine and pediatrics at University of Chicago Medicine and a rheumatology expert, told The Times.Access to this particular medication is essential, Edens added, because of its efficacy and because some patients may experience side effects or drug interactions that make it impractical or dangerous to their health to try something different.
Texas hospitals declining pregnancy care over abortion law, group says - The Texas Medical Association said it received complaints that hospitals were blocking staff from giving pregnant people medically necessary care.The Texas Medical Association is asking state regulators to step in after it says several hospitals afraid of violating the state’s abortion ban have turned away pregnant patients or delayed care leading to complications, The Dallas Morning News reported.In a letter to the Texas Medical Board — the state agency that regulates the practice of medicine — TMA officials on Wednesday said they have received complaints that hospital administrators and their legal teams are stopping doctors from providing medically appropriate care to patients with some pregnancy complications. They ask the board to “swiftly act to prevent any wrongful intrusion into the practice of medicine.”TMA is a professional nonprofit that represents over 55,000 medical professionals in the state.The request comes as confusion and concerns abound among Texas medical professionals over what they can and cannot do under Texas’ abortion ban.Beyond elective abortions, there are several situations in which a doctor might advise an abortion for the safety of the patient — including ectopic pregnancies, in which a fertilized egg grows outside of the uterus, making it unviable — or provide other stabilizing treatments during hypertension and preeclampsia. Delays in treatment can cause serious health complications.But in a post-Roe world, physicians in states where abortion has been banned have to weigh the legal implications of their actions, instead of making decisions based on what prevailing medical literature recommends. In Texas, doctors can face six-figure fines and be put in jail for any disallowed a bortions.According to the Morning News, the TMA included in its letter examples of some cases in which treatment was denied or delayed but did not name specific hospitals. In Central Texas, a physician was allegedly instructed to not treat an ectopic pregnancy until a rupture occurred, which puts patient health at serious risk, the letter says.
A 10-year-old girl made headlines for getting an abortion, but thousands of kids under 15 get abortions every year: 'The situation out of Ohio is in no way unique' - Following an abortion ban in her state, a 10-year-old Ohio rape victim had to cross state lines to acquire an abortion. Although the case started a social media firestorm, with politicians and outlets claiming her story was false despite there being evidenceof such a case, data shows she isn't alone. In 2020, 52 children under the age of 14 received an abortion in Ohio, according to the Ohio Department of Health. In 2017, theGuttmacher Institute found that 4,460 children under 15 became pregnant. 44% of those pregnancies resulted in an abortion."The situation out of Ohio is in no way unique," Katie McHugh, an OB-GYN in Indiana, told The New York Times. "This is a situation that every abortion provider has seen before."Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, several states like Ohio implemented total bans on abortion, some without exceptions for rape or incest. Many of these states also report providing abortions for children under the age of 15.
- In 2022, two abortions were performed in Texas for kids between 12-13, according to Texas Health and Human Services. Reports have emerged of an 11-year-old incest victim who traveled to Colorado for an abortion, the Times reported. Texas is set to implement a total ban on abortions with no exceptions for rape or incest.
- In 2020, Alabama 25 kids between the age of 10-14 had abortions. One child was 11, and another one was 12, according to theAlabama Center for Heath Statistics. Alabama implemented a total ban on abortions with no exceptions for rape or incest.
- In 2020, the Oklahoma State Department of Health reported 17 abortions between the ages of 5-14. Oklahoma bans abortions except in cases of rape or incest reported to the police.
- In 2021, 27 kids under the age of 15 had an abortion in Louisiana, according to the Louisiana Department of Health. Louisiana has a total ban on abortions.
- In 2020 in Arkansas, 11 children under the age of 15 had an abortion, according to the Arkansas Department of Health. Arkansas has a total ban on abortions with no exceptions for rape or incest.
States with abortion bans also have some of the highest maternal and infant mortality rates in the nation. Although the circumstances surrounding these abortions are not known, data from the CDC shows 1 in 4 girls and 1 in 13 boys experience child sexual abuse in the US.
‘Crushing News’: Appeals Court Greenlights Georgia’s 6-Week Abortion Ban - Yves here. Unusually, an article means to rouse (well-deserved) ire, this Common Dreams piece appears to assume that its readers are fully up to speed on the draconian Georgia abortion law, H.B.481. Not only does it set an impossibly tight window for getting a legal abortion (as in before many women would realize they were pregnant) but as the the article below does usefully explain, uses a bogus cutoff standard of a fetal heartbeat, when the early-in-first-trimester electrical signals claimed to be a heartbeat typically can’t be given the state of development.What the article skips over are the draconian punishments for women who obtain abortions for fetuses deemed to have heartbeats. In Alabama, it’s MDs who are sanctioned for giving deemed-to-be-illegal abortions (allowed only in cases of endangerment of the mother, rape, or incest). In Georgia, the mother is subject to the death penalty for getting an abortions. From Slate in 2019: On Tuesday, Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp signed a “fetal heartbeat” bill that seeks to outlaw abortion after about six weeks. The measure, HB 481, is the most extreme abortion ban in the country—not just because it would impose severe limitations on women’s reproductive rights, but also because it would subject women who get illegal abortions to life imprisonment and the death penalty.The primary purpose of HB 481 is to prohibit doctors from terminating any pregnancy after they can detect “embryonic or fetal cardiac activity,” which typically occurs at six weeks’ gestation. But the bill does far more than that. In one sweeping provision, it declares that “unborn children are a class of living, distinct person” that deserves “full legal recognition.” Thus, Georgia law must “recognize unborn children as natural persons”—not just for the purposes of abortion, but as a legal rule….And a woman who miscarries because of her own conduct—say, using drugs while pregnant—would be liable for second-degree murder, punishable by 10 to 30 years’ imprisonment. Prosecutors may interrogate women who miscarry to determine whether they can be held responsible; if they find evidence of culpability, they may charge, detain, and try these women for the death of their fetuses.
Hypertension elevates risk for more severe COVID-19 illness - Hypertension more than doubles the risk of hospitalization related to Omicron infection, even in people who are fully vaccinated and boosted, according to a new study led by investigators in the Smidt Heart Institute at Cedars-Sinai. The findings are published in the journal Hypertension.The risk is especially widespread given that nearly 1 out of every 2 adults in the U.S. have hypertension, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.“The take-home message is that avoiding infection is extremely important—even when the circulating viral variant is presumed to cause mild disease in most people,” said Joseph E. Ebinger, MD, a clinical cardiologist and director of clinical analytics at the Smidt Heart Institute and first author of the study.By reviewing electronic medical records, Cedars-Sinai investigators identified 912 people who were fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine, received a booster shot and were subsequently diagnosed with COVID-19 during the Omicron surge that occurred in Southern California from Dec. 1, 2021 through April 20, 2022. Of these individuals, 145 required hospitalization.“We were surprised to learn that many people who were hospitalized with COVID-19 had hypertension and no other risk factors,” said Susan Cheng, MD, MPH, director of the Institute for Research on Healthy Aging in the Department of Cardiology at the Smidt Heart Institute and a senior author of the study. “This is concerning when you consider that almost half of American adults have high blood pressure.”The team also found that chronic kidney disease, having had a heart attack, or heart failure, greatly increases the risk of hospitalization after infection.“These findings were expected considering that these are chronic medical conditions that are well established to be associated with worse outcomes,” said Ebinger, an assistant professor in the Department of Cardiology in the Smidt Heart Institute. Because hypertension is common in people with chronic kidney disease, heart attack and heart failure, the investigators conducted an analysis that excluded patients diagnosed at some point with these conditions. The risk for hospitalization was still substantial for people diagnosed with hypertension alone.The risk of being hospitalized with COVID-19 also increased with age and duration between a study participant’s last vaccination and infection. Hypertension, however, was associated with the greatest magnitude of risk: 2.6-fold.
SARS-CoV-2 infection produces chronic pulmonary epithelial and immune cell dysfunction with fibrosis in mice Abstract: A subset of individuals who recover from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) develop post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), but the mechanistic basis of PASC-associated lung abnormalities suffers from a lack of longitudinal tissue samples. The mouse-adapted severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strain MA10 produces an acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in mice similar to humans. To investigate PASC pathogenesis, studies of MA10-infected mice were extended from acute to clinical recovery phases. At 15 to 120 days post-virus clearance, pulmonary histologic findings included subpleural lesions composed of collagen, proliferative fibroblasts, and chronic inflammation, including tertiary lymphoid structures. Longitudinal spatial transcriptional profiling identified global reparative and fibrotic pathways dysregulated in diseased regions, similar to human COVID-19. Populations of alveolar intermediate cells, coupled with focal up-regulation of pro-fibrotic markers, were identified in persistently diseased regions. Early intervention with antiviral EIDD-2801 reduced chronic disease, and early anti-fibrotic agent (nintedanib) intervention modified early disease severity. This murine model provides opportunities to identify pathways associated with persistent SARS-CoV-2 pulmonary disease and test countermeasures to ameliorate PASC. )
Thousands report changes to menstrual bleeding after COVID-19 vaccine, study shows – The COVID-19 vaccine temporarily impacted women and menstruating people’s periods, a new study suggests. Reports of people experiencing changes to their menstrual cycles after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine started popping up in 2021. But little research had been done to assess the connection and all three COVID-19 vaccine manufactures denied any link between the inoculation and changes in menstrual bleeding or fertility. Two researchers .. launched an online survey last year to investigate the recently vaccinated’s menstrual experience post jab. After the survey closed, the pair analyzed the accounts of over 39,000 pre- and post-menopausal people who responded. The result of that analysis was published earlier this month in the journal Science Advances and offers one of the largest looks at a potential link between the vaccine and changes to menstrual bleeding. Out of the survey’s respondents, just over 42 percent reported experiencing heavier menstrual bleeding in the two weeks after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, the study shows. Some reported noticing a heavier flow within seven days of getting the jab but most spotted changes in between day 8 and day 14 post vaccination. Meanwhile, roughly the same amount of respondents —just over 43 percent — said they experienced no change in menstrual bleeding after getting the shot. While a small pool of people, roughly 14 percent, reported a mix of either no change or lighter flow, according to the study. The COVID-19 vaccine is not unique in its reported impact on menstrual cycles. Changes to menstrual cycles in recipients of vaccines for typhoid, Hepatitis B and the Human Papillomavirushave been documented.“Any agent that triggers an immune response could plausibly influence cellular processes in the uterus and ovaries that could have an impact on menstruation,” said Taraneh Shirazian, an associate professor and director of the division of global and community women’s health at NYU Langone Health’s department of obstetrics and gynecology, who did not take part in the study. “This doesn’t have any long-term consequences but getting COVID disease will likely disrupt the menstrual cycle much more than the vaccine.”
Menstrual changes after Covid vaccines may be far more common than previously known - When adults gained access to Covid vaccines last year, most knew to expect headaches, fatigue and soreness as side effects.But some researchers think it’s time to add another common one to the list: temporary menstrual changes. An analysis published Friday in the journal Science Advances found that 42% of people with regular menstrual cycles said they bled more heavily than usual after vaccination. Meanwhile, 44% reported no change and around 14% reported a lighter period. Among nonmenstruating people — those post-menopause or who use certain long-term contraceptives, for example — the study suggests many experienced breakthrough or unexpected bleeding after their Covid shots. The survey included over 39,000 people 18 to 80 years old who were fully vaccinated and had not contracted Covid. The study authors cautioned, though, that the percentages do not necessarily represent the rate of menstrual changes in the general population, since people who observed a difference were more likely to participate. The survey’s aim was simply to provide evidence for future studies, not to establish cause and effect. Still, other recent research also found that the Covid vaccine is associated with a small change in menstrual cycle length. The new survey started in April 2021, around the time people began to report unexpected bleeding and heavier flow post-vaccine. However, these anecdotes were at the time met with the rebuttal that there was no data linking menstrual changes to vaccination. That was both true and indicative of a larger problem. Individuals who took part in Covid vaccine trials were not asked if they experienced menstrual changes. “Before the vaccinations came out, I would say our knowledge on the subject of the connection between immunization and menstrual changes, in general, was nil,” said Candace Tingen, a program director with the gynecologic health and disease branch of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Tingen was not involved in the recent survey.Overall, few studies assess the direct effect of vaccination on the menstrual cycle, and most pharmaceutical trials have not in cluded questions about changes to menstruation.
Study results encourage SARS-CoV-2–infected mothers breastfeed to protect infants from COVID Pregnancy induces many physiological changes that may predispose them to more severe COVID-19 than non-pregnant adults. Notably, there is considerable evidence that vertical transmission of COVID-19 to the fetus during pregnancy is very rare. The presence of abundant angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors throughout the placenta may elevate the risk of infection of this organ. The resulting placental injury, which allows it to leak inflammatory cytokines to the fetal circulation, could lead to detrimental fetal outcomes. COVID-19 typically results in the production of neutralizing antibodies specifically targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike antigen. These antibodies protect against severe disease and typically attach to epitopes on the spike's receptor binding domain (RBD), which engages the ACE2 binding site. The presence of specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgA in the blood and breastmilk, respectively, have been identified. IgG antibodies cross the placenta into fetal circulation; however, IgM or IgA cannot be transferred to the fetus during pregnnacy. Thus, the presence of IgM and IgA is indicative of possible fetal infection. In the current study, the authors used antibody titers in the serum and blood of pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as in the umbilical cord blood of their babies at birth and six months, to assess the nature of maternal protection in infants. The study included over one hundred pregnant women with a median age of 34 years, over two-thirds of whom were infected within two weeks of childbirth or during labor.In the current study, most mothers were diagnosed with COVID-19 in the third trimester; however, this may not always indicate they were infected at that time. Notably, mothers with very low antibody levels were diagnosed near their delivery time, with most of the babies born to these mothers being seronegative. The most important factor in neonatal antibody transfer is maternal serum IgG levels. The role of ethnicity and other medical conditions should also be examined. It should also be noted that even if the time of maternal vaccination is not optimal for neonatal immunity, the COVID-19 vaccine will protect the mother from severe disease and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The antibodies in breastmilk may prevent vertical transmission during breastfeeding as well. This effect is mediated by secretory IgA (sIgA) from the gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT), which binds to the Ig receptor to enter breastmilk by secretion. These high titers with accompanying neutralizing activity emphasize the importance of breastfeeding, even for mothers with COVID-19.The problem is further compounded for the large number of people who switched jobs this year, which often means they don’t yet have sick leave accrued when they need it. (That itself is an additional shortcoming in the way we handle benefits;
Higher rates of preterm birth in women infected with COVID-19 in late pregnancy - ARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with an increased risk of preterm birth, but only for women infected in their final trimester, according to research published in the open access journal PLOS ONE. The study of over 5,000 pregnant women is one of the first to look at pregnancy outcomes for COVID-19 patients by trimester. There is limited data on pregnancy and COVID-19 infection. To date, studies have been small, generally limited to patients who are hospitalized, and have often not reported outcomes depending on infection during different stages of pregnancy. Noga Fallach and colleagues from the Kahn-Sagol-Maccabi Research and Innovation Center used anonymized data captured by Maccabi Healthcare Services in Israel to match 2,753 women who were infected during pregnancy with 2,753 women without reported COVID-19 infections. Their study ran from February 21, 2020 until July 2, 2021. Of the infected women, 17.4% got COVID-19 during the first trimester, 34.2% during the second and 48.4% during the third trimester. COVID-19 infection in the first and second trimesters was not associated with increased risk of preterm birth. However, women infected in their third trimester were 2.76 times more likely to experience preterm birth (2.76, 95% CI 1.63–4.67) – while women infected after 34 weeks of gestation were over seven times more likely to experience preterm birth (7.10, 95% CI 2.44–20.61). There was a lower rate of waters breaking before labor began in infected women (39.1%) vs non-infected women (58.3%), and proportions of caesarean sections and baby loss were similar in both groups. Because of the increased risk of preterm birth in women infected during late pregnancy, the researchers suggest that during their third trimester, and particularly after 34 weeks of gestation, women should be advised to distance and wear masks to reduce risk of infection. “The results are encouraging and reassuring that COVID-19 infection during pregnancy is not associated with any type of pregnancy loss. However, it should be remembered that the research group tested the COVID pre-Delta variants, and does not refer to the dominant variant today, which is Omicron. We continue to conduct research to provide real-world data and knowledge to the public and decision-makers.”
Low demand for young kids’ Covid vaccines is alarming doctors - States where parents have hesitated to inoculate their children against Covid-19 are now ordering fewer doses of the vaccines for children under 5 than others, underscoring the challenge facing the Biden administration as a highly transmissible variant sweeps the nation. Experts broadly agree states shouldn’t order more doses than they think they’ll use. But they worry the low demand in states such as Alabama and Mississippi is a warning sign of the widening ambivalence among many parents about the benefits of vaccinating children against the virus and continuing politicization of health care. “Never before have we had a vaccine available for young children that has been in billions of people before it was given to a young child,” said Kawsar Talaat, a vaccine expert at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “The distrust in government, the distrust in public health and the distrust in science is growing and is very, very worrisome.”POLITICO contacted each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico to ask how many of the recently authorized Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines they ordered and 38 jurisdictions provided that data. Several of the states that reported placing some of the lowest orders relative to their under-5 populations also have low Covid-19 vaccination rates for 5- to 11-year-olds, an early indication that vaccinations for the youngest kids could follow a similar pattern. Since they became eligible last fall, 36.6 percent of 5- to 11-year-olds have received one Covid-19 shot and only 30 percent are fully vaccinated, compared to 69 percent of adults aged 18 to 49. Public health experts and doctors attribute the slow uptake in part to the fact that many parents don’t believe that the vaccine is necessary, effective, or that its benefits outweigh any risks.
Effective oxygen treatment is now available for millions suffering from long-term COVID-19 symptoms - A groundbreaking new study from Tel Aviv University, the first of its kind in the world, found a promising treatment for long-term COVID-19 symptoms, based on advanced Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy (HBOT). Long COVID, which affects up to 30% of patients infected by the COVID-19 virus, is characterized by a range of debilitating cognitive symptoms such as inability to concentrate, brain fog, forgetfulness and difficulty recalling words or thoughts - persisting for more than three months, and sometimes up to two years. To date, no effective therapy has been suggested, leaving many millions of sufferers around the world with no remedy. The researchers: "Our study is the first randomized controlled trial to demonstrate a real solution for long COVID. Patients exposed to an intensive protocol of HBOT treatments showed significant improvement compared to the control group. For millions suffering from long-term COVID-19 symptoms, the study provides new hope for recovery." The paper was published in Scientific Reports. Prof. Efrati explains: "Today we understand that in some patients, the COVID-19 virus penetrates the brain through the cribriform plate, the part of the skull located just above our nose, and triggers chronic brain injury - mainly in brain regions in the frontal lobe, responsible for cognitive function, mental status and pain interpretation. Consequently, affected patients experience a long-term cognitive decline, with symptoms such as brain fog, loss of concentration and mental fatigue. In addition, since the frontal lobe is damaged patients may suffer from mood disturbance, depression, and anxiety. These clinical symptoms, identified in patients all over the world, were corroborated by the World Health Organization in an official definition of so-called “long COVID" issued in October 2021, including cognitive dysfunction as one of the common symptoms. A recent study from the Universities of Cambridge and Exeter reported that 78% of long-term COVID-19 patients experienced difficulties with concentration, 69% reported brain fog, and 68% reported forgetfulness. Thus, long-term COVID-19 effects can be very detrimental to the sufferer's quality of life, and no effective treatment has yet been found. In our study we harnessed HBOT, already proven effective in the treatment of other forms of brain injury (such as stroke, trauma, age-related cognitive decline and treatment-resistant PTSD), to the global effort to find a solution for long COVID-19." The study, designed as a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, included 73 patients with reported post-COVID-19 cognitive symptoms such as inability to concentrate, brain fog, forgetfulness and difficulty recalling words or thoughts, persisting for more than three months following an RT-PCR test confirming COVID-19 infection.
More-Contagious BA.5 Omicron Variant Makes Up Nearly 80% of COVID Cases: CDC – - A COVID subvariant that has shown an ability to better evade a patient’s immunity against the virus is now responsible for nearly 80% of cases reported in the United States this week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. According to the latest “Nowcast’ released by the CDC on Tuesday, the BA.5 omicron subvariant is now estimated to be responsible for 77.9% of COVID cases in the United States. Another omicron subvariant, known as BA.4, currently makes up 12.8% of cases, representing a slight decline from last week, even as BA.5 continues to gain steam. The CDC first tracked cases of the BA.5 subvariant back in late April, and its reach has expanded rapidly in the United States, becoming the dominant strain of the virus in early July. In the span of one month, BA.5 has gone from causing an estimated 29.1% of cases to 77.9% of cases, according to the CDC. That track basically mirrors what has happened in the Midwest, with a group of six states, including Illinois and Indiana, reporting that 78% of COVID cases are linked to BA.5. The BA.5 subvariant is causing concerns among physicians for several reasons, most important of which is that it seems to do a better job than previous variants of getting around the immunity caused by vaccinations and by previous COVID infections. Research indicates that both BA.4 and BA.5 are up to four times more resistant to antibodies from vaccines than BA.2, which was the most dominant strain of COVID in the U.S. for several months over the spring and early summer. BA.4 and BA.5 cause similar symptoms to previous strains of COVID, including runny nose, sore throat, headache and persistent cough. The good news is that it does not seem as though the strain causes more severe outcomes for patients who are vaccinated against COVID, although its increased transmissibility could lead to increases in hospitalizations if it starts to impact more vulnerable populations. In addition to traditional steps like vaccination and masking, some physicians are calling for new booster shots to be formulated to combat the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. Pfizer and Moderna have announced that they are changing the formulation of those boosters to combat those subvariants, and new guidance on who is eligible for booster shots could come as soon as this fall, according to officials.
Why the Omicron offshoot BA.5 is a big deal – CNN -- Once again, Covid-19 seems to be everywhere. If you feel caught off-guard, you aren't alone. After the Omicron tidal wave washed over the United States in January and the smaller rise in cases in the spring caused by the BA.2 subvariant, it might have seemed like the coronavirus could be ignored for a while. After all, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in December that nearly all Americans had been vaccinated or have antibodies from a past infection. Surely all that immunity bought some breathing room. But suddenly, many people who had recovered from Covid-19 as recently as March or April found themselves exhausted, coughing and staring at two red lines on a rapid test. How could this be happening again -- and so soon? The culprit this time is yet another Omicron offshoot, BA.5. It has three key mutations in its spike protein that make it both better at infecting our cells and more adept at slipping past our immune defenses. In just over two months, BA.5 outcompeted its predecessors to become the dominant cause of Covid-19 in the United States. Last week, this subvariant caused almost 2 out of every 3 new Covid-19 infections in this country, according to the latest data from the CDC. Lab studies of antibodies from the blood of people who've been vaccinated or recovered from recent Covid-19 infections have looked at how well they stand up to BA.5, and this subvariant can outmaneuver them. So people who've had Covid as recently as winter or even spring may again be vulnerable to the virus. "We do not know about the clinical severity of BA.4 and BA.5 in comparison to our other Omicron subvariants," CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at a White House Covid-19 Response Team briefing Tuesday. "But we do know it to be more transmissible and more immune-evading. People with prior infection, even with BA.1 and BA.2, are likely still at risk for BA.4 or BA.5." The result is that we're getting sick in droves. As Americans have switched to more rapid at-home tests, official case counts -- currently hovering around 110,000 new infections a day -- reflect just a fraction of the true disease burden. "We estimate that for every reported case there are 7 unreported," Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, wrote in an email. Other experts think the wave could be as much as 10 times higher than what's being reported now. "We're looking at probably close to a million new cases a day," Dr. Peter Hotez said on CNN. "This is a full-on BA.5 wave that we're experiencing this summer. It's actually looking worse in the Southern states, just like 2020, just like 2021," said Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. That puts us in the range of cases reported during the first Omicron wave, in January. Remember when it seemed like everyone everywhere got sick at the same time? That's the situation in the United States again. It may not seem like a very big deal, because vaccines and better treatments have dramatically cut the risk of death from Covid-19. Still, about 300 to 350 people are dying on average each day from Covid-19, enough to fill a large passenger jet.
Omicron Ba.5 variant: Covid warning over symptom of new strain that affects sufferers at night - An immunologist has warned the new strain of Covid could be causing different symptoms – including one that emerges during the night. Omicron BA.5 is a highly-contagious subvariant causing concern as it contributes to a fresh wave of infections around the globe, including the UK. Scientists have been finding differences with previous strains, including the ability to reinfect people within weeks of having Covid. A leading immunologist has now suggested it could be causing a new symptom among patients. “One extra symptom from BA.5 I saw this morning is night sweats,” Professor Luke O’Neill from Trinity College Dublin told a Irish radio station earlier this week. BA.5 is driving a surge in cases in a number of countries along with BA.4, including across Europe and in Australia. It also became the dominant variant in the US this week. “The disease is slightly different because the virus has changed,” Prof O’Neill told Newstalk on Thursday. He added: “There is some immunity to it – obviously with the T-cells and so on – and that mix of your immune system and the virus being slightly different might give rise to a slightly different diease, strangely enough night sweats being a feature. BA.5 was first discovered in South Africa in February, one month after BA.4 was identified in the same country. Both have since spread around the world and sparked concern over a resurgence of Covid infections.
New BA.5 omicron subvariant carries symptom from delta variant - — If it seems like a lot of people you know are getting infected with COVID-19 for the second or third time, you're not crazy. If it seems like the people getting infected are showing symptoms after being asymptomatic the time before, you're not making that up either. “These two subvariants are just very good at infecting people," Dr. Shane Fernando, a clinical epidemiologist at UNT Health Science Center, said. Dr. Fernando said the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants are essentially like the children of the parent omicron variant. BA.5 is the major problem child. “It’s the one most responsible for the COVID waves around the world," Dr. Fernando said. The BA.5 subvariant currently makes up about 80% of current COVID infections. Dr. Fernando said it spreads about 4.2 times faster than the omicron variant and stands up well against natural immunity from past infections. However, he said staying up-to-date on vaccines and boosters is still important. "That severity of disease is determined by whether or not you are vaccinated," Dr. Fernando said. Stephen Love, president and CEO of the DFW Hospital Council, said there were 753 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in North Texas hospitals on Thursday. He said that number continues to rise slowly, but steadily. He said a vast majority of those patients are unvaccinated. The BA.5 subvariant, like the omicron variant, carries symptoms like congestion, sore throat, fatigue and a persistent cough. "It almost feels like you're having a bit of an allergic reaction," Dr. Fernando said. However, recent cases show patients testing positive for the BA.5 subvariant had a "throwback" symptom. "We’ve started getting anecdotal evidence that there’s anosmia, which is that loss of smell," Dr. Fernando said. “It’s something we haven’t seen in a while. It was very prevalent with the delta variant. Remember delta? It feels like forever ago.” Dr. Fernando said the studies, like the subvariant, are new. He said it's not clear how many patients with BA.5 subvariant lost their smell. The CDC recently upgraded the COVID-19 risk levels to "high" for Tarrant, Collin and Dallas counties. That level comes with the recommendation to wear masks indoors.
Is COVID’s Incubation Period Changing With New BA.5 Subvariant? Chicago’s Top Doctor Explains – With the most contagious version of coronavirus yet spreading across the country, what does that mean for COVID's incubation period and is it changing? According to Chicago's top doctor, while much is still unfolding surrounding the omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, she doesn't believe the incubation period is changing, but rather some people are staying positive for longer. "I wouldn't say the incubation period is shorter... it's been getting shorter compared to what the original was, but we are seeing people often have just upper respiratory symptoms or having a cold, they're having sore throat sometimes, they're having fever or not seeing a lot of that severe illness - especially in people who are up to date with vaccine because the secondary part of your immune system kicks in and helps - but we're seeing people they can stay positive for a little longer," Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady said during a Facebook Live Tuesday. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, someone with COVID-19 is "considered infectious starting two days before they develop symptoms, or two days before the date of their positive test if they do not have symptoms." Regardless of symptoms, those who test positive are advised to take specific precautions for at least 10 days. "Even if you're not that sick, you can still spread COVID," Arwady said. Despite the length of positivity and the contagiousness of the latest variants, Arwady said she doesn't anticipate changes to isolation or quarantine protocols.
BA.5 is causing more Covid-19 reinfections, data suggests, but they don't appear to be more frequent - It's not your imagination: As the rapidly spreading BA.5 coronavirus subvariant causes a surge in infections across the United States, more people are catching Covid-19 for the second or third time. But on average, these reinfections do not seem to be happening more rapidly, according to a new analysis from the gene sequencing company Helix. BA.5, another offshoot of the Omicron variant, is now causing about 80% of new Covid-19 infections in the United States, according to the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Helix, which sequences Covid-19 tests to monitor variants, recently plumbed its data to find out how many times the same person tested positive for Covid-19 and whether there are more reinfections now compared to earlier waves. Out of nearly 300,000 infections since March 2021, the share that are reinfections almost doubled from 3.6% during the BA.2 wave in May to 6.4% during the BA.5 wave in July. These reinfections don't seem to be getting closer together, however. In April, during the BA.2 wave, the average time between positive Covid-19 tests for the same person was about 230 days; by July, it was about 270 days, or about nine months. "The most recent data we had pulled showed that the fraction of all infections that are reinfections have increased quite a bit. There was a jump," said Shishi Luo, associate director of bioinformatics and infectious disease at Helix. Luo says she thinks a mix of factors -- including waning immunity, broad spread and mutations to BA.5 that help it sneak past the body's defenses -- are probably all contributing to the increase. On average, people who are getting reinfected now were last infected about nine months ago. That doesn't mean there aren't some recent cases in which people have gotten new bouts of Covid-19 just weeks apart. Luo can see those in the data. But they aren't the norm. "Statistically speaking, you're more likely to get reinfected the longer it has been since your last infection, just based on the data we've generated," she said. The Helix data echoes the results of a recent study on reinfection from Qatar, which routinely screens its 2.8 million residents for Covid-19, testing about 5% of the population each week. The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants arrived in Qatar in May and were dominating transmission by June. Researchers used the national screening data to look at instances of reinfection. They found that people who'd had Covid-19 infections before the arrival of the Omicron variant had little protection against a reinfection that caused symptoms during the BA.5 wave: just 15%. But protection from a past infection by an Omicron variant was higher: about 76%. Sign up here to get The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay Gupta every Tuesday from the CNN Health team. "Those who got infected with a pre-Omicron variant now have really limited protection against the infection of BA.4 or BA.5, so they cannot really count on natural immunity to protect them," said Laith Abu-Raddad, an epidemiologist with Weill-Cornell Medicine-Qatar, in Doha, Qatar. "Those who get infected more recently with an Omicron variant, they have pretty good strong immunity -- but of course not total immunity -- against reinfection," Abu-Raddad said. These study results may not apply to everyone. The population of Qatar is unique because it is mostly made up of men who travel into the country for work, the researchers say, and few people there are over the age of 50.
Prior Omicron infection protects against BA.4 and BA.5 variants - The Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 have proven to be stealthier at evading people’s immune defences than all of their predecessors. But recent research shows that previous infection with an older variant (such as Alpha, Beta or Delta) offers some protection against reinfection with BA.4 or BA.5, and that a prior Omicron infection is substantially more effective. That was the conclusion of a study that evaluated all of Qatar’s COVID-19 cases since the wave of BA.4 and BA.5 infections began1. The work, which was posted on the medRxiv preprint server on 12 July and has not yet been peer reviewed, feeds into broader research on “how different immunities combine with each other”, says study co-author Laith Abu-Raddad, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar in Doha. Everyone has a different immune history, because people have received different combinations of COVID-19 vaccines and been infected with assorted variants during the course of the pandemic. “Different histories equip people with different immunity against upcoming infection,” says Abu-Raddad. Knowing how these diverse immune responses interact inside a person will be “very important for the future of the pandemic”, he adds. To see how much protection previous infection offers against the two Omicron subvariants, Abu-Raddad and colleagues analysed COVID-19 cases recorded in Qatar between 7 May this year — when BA.4 and BA.5 first entered the country — and 4 July. They looked at the number of people known to have been infected previously who tested positive or negative for COVID-19, and identified which infections were caused by BA.4 or BA.5 by examining positive test samples to see whether they contained a protein that these subvariants lack. The researchers found that infection with a pre-Omicron variant prevented reinfection with BA.4 or BA.5 with an effectiveness of 28.3%, and prevented symptomatic reinfection with either subvariant with an effectiveness of 15.1%. Prior infection with Omicron granted stronger protection: it was 79.7% effective at preventing BA.4 and BA.5 reinfection and 76.1% effective at preventing symptomatic reinfection. Although it seems counterintuitive to see stronger protection against any reinfection than symptomatic reinfection, the researchers say this effect is in line with previous studies and is probably caused by the estimates having wide confidence intervals. Time between infections “It’s a good study,” says Kei Sato, a virologist at the University of Tokyo. But he points out that the length of time between first and second infections could have influenced the results. Earlier variants have been around longer than Omicron, which emerged only in late 2021. And several studies, including one by the same team in Qatar2, have shown that natural immunity against SARS-CoV-2 wanes over time. Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute in Durban, South Africa, agrees. “The time that [has] passed since your original infection is much shorter with Omicron, so it’s really not a fair comparison,” he says. Sigal adds that participants’ vaccination statuses are unclear from the results, as is information on whether primary infections took place before or after vaccination, which could be an important consideration. Abu-Raddad says the study’s purpose was to investigate who is currently most prone to reinfection, rather than to attribute natural immunity to a particular viral strain. He says the study’s design controls for the effects of vaccination, and the team conducted a sensitivity analysis to adjust for vaccine status, the results of which were consistent with the overall conclusions. “The immunity you’re getting from these Omicron infections actually protects you from other Omicron sub-lineages to some extent,” says Sigal. However, “COVID is everywhere,” Sato warns. “It can easily evolve into a new variant.”
County hits red alert as BA.5 rapidly spreads across Ohio - Lorain County has returned to the highest alert for spread of COVID-19 as the BA.5 variant pushes a new surge in cases and hospitalizations. Adams, the county’s health commissioner, said earlier in the week that he was certain the sharp uptick was imminent. BA.5 is the most infectious variant yet, meaning it spreads from person to person with ease, moving incredibly quickly, Adams said. “It’s definitely moving in waves. It’s not like people in this county aren’t paying attention… and it’s not about reporting or underreporting,” he said. The Centers for the Disease Control and Prevention moved the county to red alert late Thursday. The change happened as reported cases here shot past 700, with more than 45 people recently admitted to the hospital because of COVID, according to new CDC tracking data. About 5 percent of inpatient hospital beds in Lorain County are now being used by COVID patients. Adams said the virus’ rapid spread is largely due to people letting down their guard, and returning to parties, workplaces and family events without taking the proper precautions. “That’s the part we’ve got to change. That’s how we stop the spread of this,” he said. He foresees two if not three weeks of red-level spread before the current wave subsides, similar to how omicron burned through all the hosts it could find back in January. With “blooms of infections” spreading nationwide, hopes that the pandemic would at long last be downgraded have been put on hold, Adams told the county’s Community Protection Team on Tuesday. At the time, Lorain County was yellow and only a handful of rural counties in the southern part of the state were tabbed as red for high viral spread by the CDC. Now the map of Ohio has changed considerably. Medina, Erie and Huron counties have all joined Lorain in “high-spread red,” as has most of the southern half of the state. Interestingly, urban centers including Cleveland, Toledo and Akron have all remained either yellow or green. Columbus and Cincinnati are another story, with spread rampant. A mask advisory was issue by health officials in Franklin County because of climbing cases and hospitalizations there. People in red counties are urged to wear masks while in stores and other indoor public settings and to get tested if you start to show symptoms associated with the virus.
Coronavirus dashboard for July 22: the BA.4&5 wavette has (probably) peaked - As of yesterday, nationwide (dotted line below) cases declined slightly to 123,000. Cases have been slightly elevated from their previous 100-110,000 range for several weeks, but appear to have peaked. Deaths (sold line) rose slightly to 429, and are roughly 100 above their average for the prior 3 months: The above graph for the past year shows that the death rate per infection has steadily declined, particularly when you take into account the massive number of cases in the past 6 months where people rely on home testing and so the cases are never confirmed (probably around 2.5x the number of confirmed cases). Note that since the beginning of February almost 6 months ago, the US has weathered the BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and now BA.4&5 variants without a big (compared with original Omicron) increase in cases, and in general the case levels have been below even Delta at its peak. Nor did any of the new variants in the past 6 months substantially increase the number of daily deaths. Cases in all four census regions of the US are either flat or declining (the West, thanks to California): That isn’t just the case for the US. The below graphs by Trevor Bedford for various countries all norm deaths to infections at 1:1 for the initial 2020 wave. In all countries there are many multiples more infections for each death by now: The situation isn’t quite so good as to hospitalizations, which have continued to rise in the US, to 45,200: Dr. Eric Topol has highlighted a study out of Denmark that found worldwide higher hospital admissions due to BA.5, indicating it has more pathogenicity: In the US, this may also reflect that most seniors have failed to get their second booster shot, so their protection has been fading even as the evidence has accumulated of the effectiveness of a second booster against this variant. Speaking of variants, BA.4&5 constituted 91% of all new cases in the US by last Saturday, the remainder being almost all BA.2.12.1: There was not much variation regionally: Globally the BA.4&5 wave appears to have peaked in the large majority of big countries, and I suspect we are at or just past peak in the US (note: wastewater reporting has not been updated in the past 9 days, so it’s impossible to confirm with that data). In South Africa, where BA.4&5 first appeared, cases actually are currently *below* their pre-Omicron levels. Finally, BA.2.75 continues to appear in more countries on an isolated basis, with no evidence of any waves outside India. If it proves to be a damp squid, the US could get another respite.
Omicron sub-lineage BA.2.75: Experts on symptoms, severity, all you want to know - Hindustan Times - Several experts believe that BA.2.75, a new sub-lineage of Omicron, may have the ability to spread rapidly and avoid immunity from vaccines and prior infections. Omicron sub-lineage BA.2.75 first found in India in early June has been located in several countries since then. It is said to be spreading faster than BA.5 variant in India. Several experts believe that BA.2.75, a new sub-lineage of Omicron, may have the ability to spread rapidly and avoid immunity from vaccines and prior infections. However, the symptoms remain mild with low-grade fever so far. Experts say that while the new Omicron sub-lineage is unlikely to cause a massive wave, it is important for elderly people with comorbidities to be careful and seek medical advice. According to WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan this sub-variant - BA.2.75 - seems to have a few mutations on the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein. That's a key part of the virus that attaches itself to the human receptor. She has further clarified that it's still too early to know if this sub-variant has properties of additional immune evasion or indeed of being more clinically severe. So far, this sub-lineage BA.2.75 has been detected in India and about ten other countries. "Even though there are just a few sequences available for analysis, the spike protein's receptor-binding domain appears to be mutated in this sub-variant. Several experts believe that BA.2.75, a new sub-lineage of Omicron, may have the ability to spread rapidly and avoid immunity from vaccines and prior infections," says Dr Preet Pal Thakur, Co-founder at Glamyo Health. Symptoms of Omicron BA.2.75 Dr. Bhavini Shah, Head of Microbiology, Neuberg Supratech Reference Laboratories says there are no specific different distinct symptoms noted for this particular variant and mild respiratory symptoms with low-grade fever or asymptomatic patients have been seen. The experts adds that it is a little early to comment on this. "No unique symptoms have been reported. Infections caused by this subvariant are likely to be mild or asymptomatic. Researchers are still investigating whether this variant causes more fatal infection than other omicron variants, such as BA.5," says Dr Thakur. Dr Shah says like all other covid variants hand hygiene and mask are the two strong preventive modalities. "We strongly recommend that elderly people with comorbidities should continue to be careful and seek medical advice if the Covid infection persists," says the expert. "It is difficult to identify the variant by RT-PCR. Sequencing is the only way to identify variants," says Dr Shah. Dr Shah says one must avoid crowding in public places, public functions and closed vehicles like train, plane, transport buses which can potentially contribute into spread of this infection. "It is very necessary to be cautious in order to prevent the virus from spreading, regardless of how much we would like to return to life before the pandemic. Vaccination campaigns, including booster doses, should be expanded across the country. Since mutations have not changed the mode of transmission of variants, the same Covid-19 measures will be effective and should be applied," says Dr Thakur. "Genome sequencing needs to be done proactively. India has all the facilities and capabilities to detect variants early. Genome sequencing should be like any other diagnostics. The patient should be able to walk into a lab and ask for genome sequencing. It’s only then that we’ll be able to timely identify geographic populations infected with specific variants," according to Dr Shah.
New omicron variant BA.2.75 detected in several US states – Scientists have their eyes on a new mutation of the COVID-19 virus: BA.2.75, yet another subvariant of omicron. The new subvariant has been detected in at least three U.S. states, according to Helix, a company conducting viral surveillance of the coronavirus. Helix said it identified BA.2.75 in California and Washington two weeks ago, and detected another case in Illinois last week.New York Institute of Technology professor Raj Rajnarayanan also maintains a database tracking COVID-19 variants. He reported the new subvariant has been detected in seven statesas of Thursday: California, Washington, Illinois, New York, North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has not yet included BA.2.75 in its tracker ofvariant proportions around the country.While the new subvariant has started popping up in the U.S., the vast majority of BA.2.75 cases have been found on the other side of the world in India. Much like its fellow omicron strains, BA.2.75 appears to be pretty good at evading immunity from COVID-19 vaccines and natural immunity.But even in India, other types of omicron are still dominant. The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics said last week it’s monitoring the prevalence of BA.2.75, reports the Economic Times, but it’s still too soon to say if the subvariant causes more severe disease than other types of omicron.“It’s still really early on for us to draw too many conclusions,” Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic, told the Associated Press. “But it does look like, especially in India, the rates of transmission are showing kind of that exponential increase.”It can also be hard to draw conclusions from other countries, experts explain, because the demographics can be very different. There are different levels of vaccination and different types of COVID-19 vaccines used.
COVID-19 in South Dakota: Active cases above 4,000; 86 people hospitalized — The COVID-19 death toll has gone up by two in South Dakota from the previous week.According to Wednesday’s update to the South Dakota Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard, two more people have died during the pandemic, up from 2,947 the previous week. The new deaths include one man and one woman in the following age ranges: 60-69 (1); 80+ (1). One new death was reported in the following counties: Fall River and Pennington. Active cases are now at 4,176, up from the previous report (3,857).COVID-19 in South Dakota charts. As of July 20, 63 of South Dakota’s 66 counties are listed as having “high” or “substantial” community spread. “High” community spread is 100 cases or greater per 100,000 or a 10% or greater PCR test positivity rate.There are now 86 people hospitalized due to COVID-19, down from last week (89). Throughout the pandemic, there have been 11,200 total people who have been hospitalized.There were 1,514 confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases reported.The state’s total case count is now at 248,788, up from last week (247,274). That total does not include at-home positive results as those are not required to be reported to the state.The latest seven-day PCR test positivity rate for the state is 25.5% for July 12 – 18.The number of recovered cases is at 241,665.The number of Omicron cases detected in South Dakota through sentinel monitoring is now at 1,305. The state is also reporting 135 Omicron BA.2 cases.There have been 1,720 Delta variant cases (B.1.617.2 and AY lineages) is detected in South Dakota through sentinel monitoring. There have been 176 cases of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha variant), 4 cases of P.1. (Gamma variant) and 2 cases of the B.1.351 (Beta variant).For COVID-19 vaccines, 74% the population 5-years-old and above has received at least one dose while 60% have completed the vaccination series. For booster doses, 33% of those eligible have completed their booster dose. Those numbers are unchanged for the past week.There have been 728,434 doses of the Pfizer vaccine administered, 504,126 of the Moderna vaccine and 38,255 doses of the Janssen vaccine.There have been 1,270,815 total doses administered in South Dakota with 529,264 total persons receiving the vaccine.
Seventh COVID-19 wave sweeps across Canada - Little more than three months after provincial governments across Canada followed the demand of the far-right “Freedom Convoy” and dismantled all remaining public health protections, another wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths is raging. Despite drastically scaled back screening measures, data from British Columbia to the Atlantic provinces makes clear that Canada confronts a rapidly escalating summer wave, fueled by the more immune-resistant and transmissible BA.5 variant. In BC, where testing is limited to only a tiny fraction of the population, cases are steadily rising. Hospitalizations and critical care patients have shot up by over a third in the past fortnight. The independent BC COVID-19 Modelling Group estimates that the BA.5 variant now makes up roughly 80 percent of all cases in the province. In Quebec, hospitalizations, ICU patients and deaths are rising sharply. On July 8, the province reported 17 deaths, the highest single daily death toll in almost two months. Ontario is witnessing similar trends, with the province reporting sharp rises in hospitalization rates at the beginning of July. The PCR test positivity rate rose to 14 percent, a two month high, with the BA.5 variant making up two-thirds of all genomic sequencing. Most ominously, case rates are rising fastest among people in their 80s, which suggests that the virus has found its way into long-term care facilities once again. On the Atlantic coast, similar trends are being observed. In New Brunswick, hospitalizations doubled in the second week of July, with the BA.5 variant making up almost half of all sequenced cases. The reaction of governments has been to double down on their profits before life, vaccine-only strategy. Every level of government from Trudeau’s federal Liberals on down has made clear from their total indifference to the rampant spread of new variants that they will do nothing to stop mass infection and death, and the widespread devastation to the health of the population that will ensue from cases of Long COVID, which can occur in anywhere from 10 percent to 30 percent of all infections.
Surge of the BA.5 Omicron subvariant sweeps Europe, North and South America, Japan - The International Health Regulation (IHR) emergency committee on COVID-19 met on July 1, 2022 and concluded that the coronavirus continues to be a public health emergency of international concern. Yet, across every region of the globe, outside of China, there is official disregard of the warnings raised by the World Health Organization (WHO) and indifference to the immediate and long-term impact COVID-19 will have on the planet’s population. In this regard, White House Chief Medical Adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci’s comments to Politico on his impending retirement at the end of President Joe Biden’s term were remarkable for their frankness. “We’re in a pattern now,” he said. “If somebody says, ‘You’ll leave when we don’t have COVID anymore,’ then I will be 105. I think we’re going to be living with this.” Fauci is 81 years old, which means he suggests the world faces another quarter century of the COVID-19 pandemic, truly a counsel of despair. Infections, hospitalizations and deaths have continued their climb during the summer months, with Europe being the current epicenter of the latest surges. These are being caused by the latest subvariant of Omicron, the immune-evading and highly infectious BA.5. Meanwhile, the daily rate of the population receiving COVID-19 vaccines doses globally has plummeted to the lowest level since boosters began, indicating that this strategy to stem infections and severe disease has been thoroughly exhausted. Despite nearly 100 percent population “immunity” from vaccines and previous infections in many countries, repeated waves of infections in quick succession are now understood to be the new reality. Global weekly cases have nearly doubled since the end of May, with 6.3 million cases for the week ending July 4. Official deaths from COVID-19 also climbed nearly 25 percent in the same period, reaching a weekly worldwide count of almost 11,000. However, estimates of excess deaths suggest these figures are gross undercounts, in large part due to country after country having dismantled their COVID-19 trackers. While the official COVID-19 death toll globally remains at two-year lows of around 1,900 each day, daily excess deaths are seven times higher at 13,000. Notably, the “mid-range” estimate for total excess deaths, according to The Economist’s tracker, has reached 22 million. Germany, in particular, has had little respite between Omicron waves. Daily cases bounced back up to nearly 100,000 cases this month after rapidly declining in May. Deaths are surging as well. According to the Robert Koch Institute, acute respiratory illness remains unseasonably elevated. They estimate that somewhere between 800,000 and 1.3 million people are actively infected with SARS-CoV-2. BA.5 accounts for 83 percent of all COVID-19 cases. As hospital beds are quickly filling with patients, nurses and health care workers are falling ill with COVID-19, placing additional strain on overburdened health care systems.
Current Flu Season More Severe Than COVID: Australian State Premier - New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has called for a reduction in the seven-day isolation period adding that the winter influenza virus currently posed a bigger issue than COVID-19.“In many cases at the moment, the current strand of influenza is more severe than the current strands of COVID,” the premier told 2GB radio.He later added that the state was currently experiencing “one of the worst flu seasons we’ve ever had” and urged people to get a flu shot.Perrottet also advocated for reducing the mandatory isolation period after a person tests positive for COVID-19, noting that health advice states COVID will remain for at least a “couple of years.”“So in those circumstances, we need to look at isolation requirements in a way that puts downward still maintains downward pressure on our health system,” he said. The premier said considerations for other competing health issues, educational outcomes, and opportunities to go to work also need to be balanced as the country moves to the next phase of the pandemic.In response, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said it was “not the time” to for the changing of the COVID-19 isolation period.“Well, we had that discussion. And the advice that is there from the chief medical officer, Professor [Paul] Kelly, was that now is certainly not the time for that to be reconsidered,” Albanese told FiveAA radio.
Polio case confirmed in New York state, health-care providers told to look for more --The New York State Health Department confirmed a case of polio on Thursday, the first known infection in the U.S. in nearly a decade. A resident of Rockland County, a suburb of New York City, tested positive for polio, according to the state health department. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the infection. The individual was an unvaccinated adult who experienced significant symptoms, including paralysis, and had to be hospitalized, according to the New York State Health Department. Health-care providers should look for additional polio cases, state health officials said. The chain of infection that resulted in the New York case is believed to have originated outside the U.S. No cases of polio have originated in the U.S. since 1979, according to the CDC. The last known case of polio in the U.S. was in 2013. The case in Rockland County is the first time New York state has confirmed an infection since 1990, when there were two cases. The polio strain the individual caught, known as revertant Sabin type 2 virus, suggests the chain of infection began with someone who received the oral polio vaccine, according to the state health department. The oral polio vaccine contains a mild virus strain that is still able to replicate, which means people who receive it can spread the virus to others. The oral polio vaccine is no longer administered in the U.S., which suggests the chain of transmission began abroad, according to New York health officials. The U.S. uses an inactivated polio vaccine that is administered as a shot in the leg or arm. This vaccine uses a non-replicating virus strain so people who receive it cannot spread the virus to others. The CDC recommends that all children receive the polio vaccine. New York state requires that all children receive the shot before they start school. State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary Bassett encouraged recommended that people who are not vaccinated against polio get the vaccine. Polio is highly contagious and often begins with symptoms similar to the flu such as fatigue, fever, headache, muscle pain, vomiting and stiffness. Symptoms can take as long as 30 days to develop, which means people who haven't fallen ill yet can still spread the virus to others. In rare cases, polio can cause paralysis and death. The virus caused widespread fear in the 1940s before vaccines were available, with more than 35,000 people becoming disabled from polio every year, according to the CDC. At the time, many parents were afraid to let their children play outside during the summer when transmission peaked.
Feeding dogs raw meat associated with increased presence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria - New research has revealed an association between the feeding of raw meat to pet dogs and the presence of bacteria resistant to critically important antibiotics.Two studies led by a team at the University of Bristol have found dogs who are fed on a diet of raw meat were more likely to excrete antibiotic-resistant bacteria Escherichia coli (E. coli) in their faeces. Previous research has shown that there is the potential for bacteria to be shared between dogs and their human owners through everyday interaction, leading the researchers to suggest that raw feeding is not the safest dietary choice, and that, if chosen, owners should take extra precautions when handling raw meat and be especially careful to clean up after their dog. The study published today [July 21] in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy investigated adult dogs and found links between dogs eating raw meat and excreting resistant E. coli. The research supports a recent study by the team, published in the journal One Health, which looked at 16-week-old puppies. Both studies, which used data from different dogs, demonstrate that dogs may excrete resistant bacteria regardless of their age or the length of time they are fed a raw meat diet.The environment a dog lives in also played a part in the potential for them excreting resistant bacteria. Raw feeding was a strong risk factor for dogs living in the countryside, while in city-dwelling dogs, risk factors were much more complicated, probably reflecting the variety of lifestyles and exposures among city dogs.The two studies recruited a total of 823 dogs and their owners (223 puppies for the first study and 600 adult dogs in the second study). Owners completed questionnaires about their dogs, the dogs’ diets and environment, and provided faecal samples from their dogs. The samples were then analysed for the presence of antibiotic-resistant E. coli and risk factor analyses conducted to explore the associations between lifestyle factors, environments reported in the owner survey and the detection of resistant E. coli.“E. coli is a widespread bacterium that is found in the intestines of all humans and animals, however it is a common cause of many diseases including urinary tract infection and can cause serious illness including sepsis if it spreads to other parts of the body. “We should do everything we can to reduce the circulation of critically important antibiotic-resistant E. coli and other bacteria. Our research adds to the increasing evidence that not feeding raw meat to dogs may help in that objective.”
Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb calls the global monkeypox outbreak a pandemic -In an interview on CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday, former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb bluntly acknowledged the growing threat posed by monkeypox and the complete failure of the Biden administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to respond to the unprecedented global outbreak. As Face the Nation anchor Margaret Brennan noted, there are now more than 1,800 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the United States. Exactly one month ago, the cumulative number of infections had reached 112, and the seven-day rolling average was only 10 cases per day. Since then, the seven-day rolling average has risen to 173 per day. Spikes in monkeypox infections are occurring in large metropolitan centers in New York (489), California (266), Illinois (174), Florida (154), and Washington D.C. (108). Only Germany and Spain have had more cases, but the US is expected to surpass them by next week. Brennan opened her remarks by quoting Gottlieb, “You are saying this is a pandemic. That is not a word the [Biden] administration is using yet. What level of emergency are we at?” Gottlieb responded, “I think they are going to be reluctant to use the word ‘pandemic’ because it is going to imply they failed to contain this. And I think at this point we failed to contain this. We are now at the cusp of this becoming an endemic virus with this now becoming something that is persistent, that we need to continue to deal with.” He added, “I think the window for getting control of this and containing it probably has closed. And if it hasn’t closed, it certainly has started to close. With 11,000 cases across the world right now and 1,800 in the US, we are probably detecting just a fraction of the actual cases because we had for a long time a very narrow case definition on who got tested. And by and large, we are looking in the community of men who have sex with men at STD [sexually transmitted disease] clinics. We are looking there, and we are finding cases there. But it is a fact that there are cases outside of that community right now. We are not picking them up because we aren’t looking there.” At present, five laboratories across the US can run monkeypox PCR tests. Dr. Kavita Patel, a family medicine physician in Washington D.C. and former Obama administration director of policy for the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and Public Engagement, recently noted the US could run approximately 6,000 tests per week, and the turnaround time on these can take upwards of two to three days.
IM Doc Could Not Get A Monkeypox Test for a Patient. What that Says About the Sorry State of the CDC and Public Health- by Yves Smith - Medical experts and some pundits are raising alarm about the spread of monkeypox, a far more containable disease than Covid. But apparently because the public has been told to get used to endemic Covid, it’s supposed to resign itself to endemic Covid. A fresh report from IM Doc illustrates how appalling state of public health in America. From IM Doc at the start of the week: Today a gay patient in his 30s showed up in the office. He is healthy and very athletic. He is a “boy” to another older gay man. They travel the world and are into serious gay fetish play. Spanking, bondage, discipline etc. Patient has had fever and chills and horrible headache for 3 days. A reticulonodular rash has developed but no vesicles yet. They have been playing in clubs, parties, and orgies in 4 major cities the past 2 weeks. There are so many things in that diagnostic differential but of course monkeypox is right up there. And of course NO TESTING IS AVAILABLE. I called all levels of health department and even CDC today. The CDC is voice mail hell. Never talked to a human. It took several hours for a health dept human but by then the patient was already gone potentially spreading the wealth everywhere. They are acting as if I was talking about the Martian Flu. Again, we have known about this two months now, and it was like I was asking for the Holy Grail. Testing? “I need to call so and so……not sure…..but I’ll get right back to you……..”. And don’t get me started about their handling of the quarantine. I have no idea if he is really a case. Multiple tests are pending. But not monkeypox. There is apparently no blood test for that. You have to swab the vesicles. But what if we do not have vesicles yet? Or if a patient may be past the vesicular stage? Crickets. I would like to think there is a baseline competence. But that is too much an ask right now. Again two months all over the news and this is what we have. We are a completely unserious nation. Remember that IM Doc is in a wealthy destination in Flyover. Apparently the local public health officials not only think that monkeypox is exclusively a gay STD, but also that they can’t have it locally because there are no gay men in their part of the world. Did they miss Brokeback Mountain? Or the private jet landing schedule?
U.S. confirms first two cases of monkeypox in children — one case is in California - Health officials have confirmed the first two U.S. cases of monkeypox in children, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Friday. Both cases are "likely the result of household transmission" and "had no contact with each other," the agency said in a statement. One is a toddler who lives in California and the other is in an infant who is not a resident of the U.S. and was "transiting through" the Washington, D.C. area when the test was done."We became aware of these cases just this week, and we've been working with the jurisdictions to understand more about these cases," the CDC's Jennifer McQuiston told reporters on Friday.CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky first disclosed news of the cases at a virtual event with The Washington Post on Friday, saying that both children "are doing well." Children, especially those under 8 years old, are among those the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns are at "especially increased risk" for severe monkeypox disease. Last week, CDC officials told reporters that at that point, they were only aware of monkeypox cases in adults. But the agency acknowledged that state and local health authorities had only relayed additional demographic information to them for less than half of all tallied cases.The agency is also now aware of at least eight cases in people who identify as cisgender women, McQuiston said. Most cases so far have been among men who have sex with men. "There is no evidence to date that we're seeing this virus spread outside of those populations to any degree, and I think that the primary drivers for this infection in the U.S. remain in the gay, bisexual, and men who have sex with men communities right now," McQuiston added.As of Friday, the CDC had tallied a total of 2,891 cases of monkeypox in the U.S. across 44 states, as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
Monkeypox in Florida: Monitoring continues as cases reach nearly 250 - Tampa Bay area health officials are monitoring the nationwide monkeypox outbreak and say they will offer a vaccine when doses become available to those in ‘high-risk groups.’ The Department of Health - Pasco County said Friday it was monitoring the outbreak, however, no cases have been reported in the county, to date. So far, the virus has sickened people in 43 U.S. states, with more than a dozen cases reported in the Tampa Bay area. Of nearly 250 cases reported across Florida, four were in Hillsborough County, 12 were in Pinellas, three were in Polk, and one was in Sarasota County.-Pasco was not able to say when the vaccine would be available for local residents, adding that the federal government was responsible for disbursement of the vaccine.
Monkeypox is in Bay Area wastewater | MIT Technology Review - Last month, Stanford’s Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network, or SCAN, added monkeypox to the suite of viruses it checks wastewater for daily. Since then, monkeypox has been detected in 10 of the 11 sewer systems that SCAN tests, including those in Sacramento, Palo Alto, and several other cities in California’s Bay Area.As of July 21, the US had recorded 2,593 monkeypox cases. Globally, the virus has been detected in 74 countries—68 of which have not historically reported monkeypox. SCAN began to monitor California wastewater for covid-19 in 2020. It's the only public effort in the US to test if monkeypox is detectable in the shower, sink, and toilet water that is sent to wastewater treatment plants for decontamination. Extracting genetic material from the solids absorbed in raw, unprocessed sewage can provide a community-level look at where a virus or bacteria has spread, and how prevalent an outbreak is. Everyone poops, but very few people are getting tested for monkeypox.Over the past two years, the concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater has mirrored trends in covid-19 cases confirmed by testing individuals. In late 2021, wastewater surveillance suggested the omicron variant was prevalent in the US much earlier than clinical testing reported.Early data suggest that the concentration of monkeypox in wastewater can similarly inform us about monkeypox cases in the community, according to Alexandria Boehm, co-director of SCAN and a Stanford professor studying how pathogens are transmitted.Now Boehm and her colleagues are working to use their wastewater data to estimate the actual number of people with monkeypox in the communities they monitor by modeling how wastewater data and monkeypox cases from the past month correlate. This estimate, which can be updated daily, would be a much faster way to track community spread than waiting for symptomatic patients to go to a doctor and get tested.Unlike a covid test, monkeypox can only be tested for if the patient already has skin boils that a doctor can swab and test. These boils only appear 1 to 2 weeks after a person has been infected. Wastewater surveillance could help catch monkeypox infections much earlier.This approach is particularly useful when there’s a clinical testing bottleneck. Everyone poops, but very few people are getting tested for monkeypox. Prior to June 22, only about 70 out of over 200 CDC laboratories nationwide were authorized to test for monkeypox. Five companies have since been authorized to perform monkeypox testing, but scaling up will take time.A lack of accurate data on monkeypox infections makes it harder to create a model that can use wastewater to estimate monkeypox cases, because lack of testing makes it difficult to establish a real-world relationship between the two. Monkeypox is in the same virus family as smallpox but is less infectious and generally has more mild symptoms. It’s still unpleasant—alongside flu-like symptoms, monkeypox’s telltale sign is the appearance of pus-filled blisters on the face, hands, feet, or genitals. Running water over these open sores in the shower or while washing your hands can catapult monkeypox DNA into wastewater. Recent data suggest that the DNA of monkeypox can also be detected in a variety of bodily fluids from those infected. That includes respiratory and nasal secretions, spit, urine, feces, and semen—meaning a flushed tissue from someone with monkeypox can register the virus in wastewater.If a pathogen’s genetic footprint can persist in wastewater for over 24 hours, SCAN can likely detect it. Covid-19 viral RNA persists in wastewater for well over 10 days. Though monkeypox DNA seems to clear the 24-hour threshold, there is no public research on how long it persists.
California's LGBTQ community feeling ignored, angry, confused as monkeypox cases rise - LGBTQ activists and health leaders have been sounding the alarm about monkeypox for weeks, saying they were inadequately prepared and overlooked by public health officials. Now, many state and local officials are joining the call for a better response to the outbreak, especially efforts to get more vaccines. “Had federal officials shown a strong will to action, more could have been done to stop the spread just using basic public health,” California Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon said Wednesday, calling on federal officials to declare monkeypox a national public health emergency. “During recent Pride Month activities, thousands of those vaccines doses could have been administered at celebratory events, clinics, LGBTQ bars and gathering places throughout the state. That did not happen, and it enabled the spread.” Monkeypox cases in Los Angeles and San Francisco counties have continued to rise since late June — increases that coincided with the cities’ Pride weekends. Advocates say efforts to provide preventative and post-exposure protection to those most at risk are hampered by severely limited vaccines. When cases began appearing in Los Angeles County last month, only about 1,000 vaccines from the federal government had arrived, a shortage Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer called “distressing.” Many of those infected had then been linked to two large parties. Currently, about 24,000 doses have made their way to L.A. County. The additions are welcome improvements but still far short of what experts say is needed to adequately respond to the virus. Dr. Mark Ghaly, the California Health and Human Services secretary, wrote to the CDC on Wednesday requesting an additional 600,000 vaccine doses — more than 15 times what the state has already received. Ghaly’s agency, which distributes doses to all California counties besides Los Angeles, had received less than 38,000 vaccines as of Thursday. Officials say they don’t expect the shortage to be resolved for months.
The Monkeypox Vaccine Hunger Games Are On - For many men who have sex with men, it’s been the entire topic of conversation for over a month. That and how to get vaccinated against it. The question of how serious it is — despite the somewhat cute-sounding name — was soon answered as more and more people got it and shared their vivid genital experiences online. (Short answer: It really, really sucks.)Last night, a group of mostly gay men gathered in Bushwick to celebrate a Tom of Finland book launch and the room quickly divided into the few who (a little smugly) had managed to finagle their first vaxx dose and the many who had earlier in the day gotten a text alert from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene that on Friday, at 6 p.m., a new batch of appointments would be made available. Meanwhile, there were the horror stories. Matthew Cancel, a Manhattan-based publicist, took to Instagram to raise awareness by describing his symptoms in explicit detail. “The sores are painful and itchy and I had to wear baggy sweats that covered everything,” he told me. “It’s sad, but I feel like the only way to get people to care is to poke at their vanity and have them understand this is an ugly illness that leaves physical marks.” Seeking relief wasn’t any easier. “I was hung up on multiple times by emergency rooms who simply would not listen to me and was told by others that unless my symptoms became ‘severe’ there was nothing they can do.” Here’s an anecdote going around the Tom of Finland party: One friend of a friend apparently developed the pox’s trademark lesions inside his penis, requiring him to be catheterized. At this point, everybody went to the bar for another rosĂ©.
More Monkeypox Vaccines Are Coming to NYC. Should You Get Vaccinated — And How? --The rollout of the monkeypox vaccine in New York City has been riddled with technical difficulties, communication issues and a major shortage of doses.When the first 1,000 doses arrived at the Chelsea Sexual Health Clinic in early June, appointments were filled almost immediately. The people who booked them waited for hours in long lines at the clinic as the demand for the vaccine far exceeded the supply.In early July, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene announced that 6,000 new doses of the vaccine had arrived — only to pause bookings because of appointment portal glitches. Health Commissioner Ashwin Vasan tweeted an apology for the tech mess-up, and said the city would “do better in the days and weeks ahead.”More appointments opened on July 15, this time through the city’s own vaccine appointment portal, Vax4NYC.gov. The change comes after the previously contracted site, MedRite,experienced major problems.New Yorkers can also now text the word “MONKEYPOX” to 692692 to receive updates on vaccine appointment availability, or book a vaccine appointment by calling 877-VAX-4NYC.As of July 18, a total of 616 people have tested positive for monkeypox in New York City. This is a significant jump from the previous week, when there were a total of 223 reported cases.New York City currently has the highest number of monkeypox cases in the country, health department officials said at a July 11 town hall on the outbreak. State and city health officials have urged the federal government to send more vaccine doses.State and city health officials have urged the federal government to send more vaccine doses, including in a letter Mayor Eric Adams sent to President Biden on July 11.To cope with the shortage, the health department said on July 15 that it would prioritize just first doses of the vaccines “until we receive adequate vaccine supply.” According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the vaccine would ideally be given in two shots, four weeks apart.With all the confusion, you may be wondering about the specifics of the contagious viral disease, who’s at risk, how concerned you should be and how to access the vaccine. We’re here to help. Here’s a guide on what to know about the monkeypox outbreak:
With monkeypox spreading, many experts believe virus can't be contained - It has been a mere nine weeks since the United Kingdom announced it had detected four cases of monkeypox, a virus endemic only in West and Central Africa. In that time, the number of cases has mushroomed to nearly 13,000 in over 60 countries throughout Europe, North and South America, the Middle East, new parts of Africa, South Asia, and Australia. The growth in cases and the geographic spread has been rapid and relentless. Now, even as global health officials race to curb spread of the virus, most experts polled by STAT said they don’t believe it will be possible to contain it. “I think we missed that train at this point,” said Gary Kobinger, director of the Galveston National Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch and a member of an expert committee that advises the World Health Organization’s Emergencies Program. The view is equally grim from clinics that diagnose sexually transmitted infections, which have been on the frontlines for monkeypox detection given that the virus is primarily spreading among men who have sex with men in the United States, U.K., and a number of other countries. “The STI field is preparing for the long haul here,” said David C. Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors, an organization that represents sexual health clinics. “We think, unfortunately, that monkeypox may become endemic among the MSM community.”
Monkeypox: US Health Officials Weigh Emergency Declaration - The Biden administration is considering whether to declare the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency as cases in the US soared to more than 2,800 on Friday, a White House official said. “Certainly it’s a conversation that’s ongoing,” Ashish Jha, the White House Covid response coordinator told reporters. “We’re looking at that, looking at what are the ways in which the response could be enhanced by declaring a public health emergency.”
Biden administration considering a public health emergency for monkeypox as cases swell - U.S. health officials are discussing whether to declare a public health emergency for the monkeypox outbreak as they work to make treatments and vaccines available to more people. The discussions come as the virus — which is endemic in West and Central Africa but unusual in the United States — continues to spread across the country. As of Thursday, there were 2,593 cases reported, up from 1,470 last week. The federal government announced Friday it has shipped over 300,000 doses of the vaccine to states and cities to control the outbreak. “We’re looking at … what are the ways the response could be enhanced, if any, by declaring a public health emergency,” White House Covid response coordinator Ashish Jha told reporters during a briefing Friday. Officials at the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also working to make tecovirimat, the only treatment available for monkeypox (though only FDA–approved for smallpox), easier for physicians to prescribe to patients. A more streamlined process to get the antiviral is expected to be announced to providers next week. The White House will also use a new research agenda, which was announced Thursday and consists of $140 million in ongoing projects, to study stretching limited monkeypox vaccine doses, find new testing methods and expand treatment options, three White House officials told POLITICO. “The reality is [vaccine] doses are relatively limited in the near term,” said Andrew Hebbeler, principal assistant director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s Health and Life Sciences division. “And so there are open questions about whether we can extend the limited supply that we have to go further by either administering a single dose instead of two or diluting the doses that we have to vaccinate more.” The administration is still standing behind FDA guidance for two doses — even as some cities and states are currently only offering one dose per person to better spread limited supply.
WHO declares monkeypox a global health emergency as infections soar - The World Health Organization on Saturday declared the international monkeypox outbreak a global emergency, a decision that underscores concerns about rapidly spreading infections sparked by the virus.The move to label the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, the highest level of alert the WHO can issue, is expected to marshal new funding to fight the outbreak and to pressure governments into action. More than 16,500 cases of monkeypox have been reported in 74 countries.“In short, we have an outbreak that has spread around the world rapidly through new modes of transmission about which we understand too little,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters Saturday. The decision means the world is now confronting two viral diseases that have crossed the extraordinary threshold of being declared health emergencies: covid-19 and monkeypox. The WHO labeled the coronavirus pandemic a global crisis early in 2020. WHO officials said the global risk of monkeypox is moderate, but that it is high in Europe, where most of the infections have been recorded in an outbreak that ignited in the spring.Tedros said that one of the reasons he moved to declare a global health emergency is the potential for stanching the outbreak, which is overwhelmingly concentrated in men who have sex with men.“That means that this is an outbreak that can be stopped with the right strategies in the right groups,” Tedros said.The WHO director general emphasized that any containment measures should respect the “human rights and dignity” of gay and bisexual men.“Stigma and discrimination can be as dangerous as any virus,” Tedros said.WHO officials also said higher rates of “health-seeking behavior” among gay and bisexual men and a culture of public health in the community shaped by the AIDS crisis can help end the outbreak.The global health agency’s announcement was accompanied byrecommendations to bolster a coordinated global monkeypox response designed to intensify surveillance, accelerate research into vaccines and therapeutics, and strengthen infection control in hospitals.
Skittles Have Coloring Agent Unsafe for Humans, Lawsuit Says -Skittles maker Mars Inc. dupes consumers by not disclosing that the brightly hued candies contain titanium dioxide, a toxic coloring ingredient, that is unfit for human consumption, according to a proposed class action filed in federal court in California.Titanium dioxide—which is also used in paints, coatings, adhesives, plastics, printing inks, and roofing materials—can cause DNA and chromosomal damage, organ damage, inflammation, and other health effects, according to the lawsuit filed Thursday in the US District Court for the Northern District of California.Mars has known of the mineral’s health risks and publicly committed in 2016 to phasing out titanium dioxide, the lawsuit alleges.However, the company hid the risk, framing the planned phaseout as a response to consumers’ demand for more natural ingredients in food products, consumer Jenile Thames alleges. Mars continues to sell Skittles with titanium dioxide, unbeknownst to reasonable consumers who buy them, he alleges.France banned titanium dioxide in 2019, the suit says.In May 2021, the European Food Safety Authority determined that titanium dioxide couldn’t be considered safe for consumption.As a result, the European Commission announced that it would prohibit titanium dioxide in foods, the lawsuit says. Mars has offices in European countries and will be subject to the EC ban, the suit alleges.A six-month phase-out period in the EU began Feb. 7. A full ban will apply Aug. 7, according to a USDA Foreign Agricultural Serviceposting. In the US, Mars sells the candy and fails to inform consumers of the implications of ingesting the toxin, Thames alleges. Instead, Mars relies on the ingredient list which is provided in minuscule print on the back of the packages, he said.
Watchdog: EPA botched pesticide cancer review -EPA and its internal watchdog are at odds over how officials decided a commonly used fumigant doesn’t pose as great a cancer risk as once thought.In a report today, EPA’s Office of Inspector General said the environmental agency broke with its own procedures and standards of transparency in downgrading the cancer risk classification of 1,3-Dichloropropene, which farmers use to protect potatoes and other crops from nematodes in soil.That decision during the Trump administration in 2019 changed an assessment in place since 1985 that 1,3-D is “likely to be carcinogenic to humans.” The new classification is “suggestive evidence of carcinogenic potential,” which the OIG said means that there is evidence of tumors in only a single animal cancer study or only at a single dose.In practice, the downgrade in risk means a farmer could use more of the chemical in certain settings without, in EPA’s view, posing a danger to workers or others exposed to it. Farm organizations such as the Washington State Potato Commission have said 1,3-D is critical to growers, and EPA is conducting a periodic registration review due for an interim decision next year (Greenwire, June 22, 2021).While EPA and the OIG agreed on some aspects of the report — which was prompted by complaints to a government hotline — some issues remain unresolved, the OIG said, including how EPA uses a new way of assessing the risks and whether an external peer review sponsored by the company selling the chemical is just as credible as one conducted by EPA’s Scientific Advisory Panel. The OIG also said EPA failed to publicly disclose required details on meetings with nongovernment employees, or in this case industry representatives both during the Obama and Trump administrations. The fumigant has been marketed by Dow Chemical, Teleos Ag Solutions and other companies; the report didn’t identify a company. “From 2016 through 2018, the EPA met with the 1,3-D registrant at least five times regarding the cancer reassessment for 1,3-D. No information from these meetings appeared in the pesticide-registration review docket,” the OIG said, even though some of those meetings touched on EPA’s “novel approach” for selecting the highest dose in an animal cancer study.
'It's just a devastating decline': Monarch butterflies listed as endangered -- The monarch butterfly fluttered a step closer to extinction Thursday, as scientists put the iconic orange-and-black insect on the endangered list because of its fast dwindling numbers.It's just a devastating decline, said Stuart Pimm, an ecologist at Duke University who was not involved in the new listing. This is one of the most recognizable butterflies in the world. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature added the migrating monarch butterfly for the first time to its red list of threatened species and categorized it as "endangered" two steps from extinct.The group estimates that the population of monarch butterflies in North America has declined between 22 per cent and 72 per cent over 10 years, depending on the measurement method.What we're worried about is the rate of decline, said Nick Haddad, a conservation biologist at Michigan State University.It's very easy to imagine how very quickly this butterfly could become even more imperiled.Haddad, who was not directly involved in the listing, estimates that the population of monarch butterflies he studies in the eastern United States has declined between 85 per cent and 95 per cent since the 1990s.In North America, millions of monarch butterflies undertake the longest migration of any insect species known to science.After wintering in the mountains of central Mexico, the butterflies migrate to the north, breeding multiple generations along the way for thousands of miles. The offspring that reach southern Canada then begin the trip back to Mexico at the end of summer.
Ant colonies behave like neural networks when making decisions - Temperatures are rising, and one colony of ants will soon have to make a collective decision. Each ant feels the rising heat beneath its feet but carries along as usual until, suddenly, the ants reverse course. The whole group rushes out as one—a decision to evacuate has been made. It is almost as if the colony of ants has a greater, collective mind. A new study suggests that indeed, ants as a group behave similar to networks of neurons in a brain. Rockefeller's Daniel Kronauer and postdoctoral associate Asaf Gal developed a new experimental setup to meticulously analyze decision-making in ant colonies. As reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found that when a colony evacuates due to rising temperatures, its decision is a function of both the magnitude of the heat increase and the size of the ant group. The findings suggest that ants combine sensory information with the parameters of their group to arrive at a group response—a process similar to neural computations giving rise to decisions. "We pioneered an approach to understand the ant colony as a cognitive-like system that perceives inputs and then translates them into behavioral outputs," says Kronauer, head of the Laboratory of Social Evolution and Behavior. "This is one of the first steps toward really understanding how insect societies engage in collective computation."
‘Bees are really highly intelligent’: the insect IQ tests causing a buzz among scientists-- They have been revered by the ancient Egyptians, lauded by Shakespeare, feared by Winnie-the-Pooh and, most recently, battled by Rowan Atkinson in the new Netflix hit Man vs Bee. But love or loathe them, you may be surprised to discover just how much bees know.“We now have suggestive evidence that there is some level of conscious awareness in bees – that there is a sentience, that they have emotion-like states,” says Lars Chittka, professor of sensory and behavioural ecology at Queen Mary University of London.Chittka has been studying bees for 30 years and is considered one of the world’s leading experts on bee sensory systems and cognition.In his latest book, The Mind of a Bee, published on 19 July, he argues that bees need our protection, not just because they are useful for crop pollination and biodiversity, but because they may be sentient beings – and humans have an ethical obligation to ensure their survival.“Our work and that of other labs has shown that bees are really highly intelligent individuals. That they can count, recognise images of human faces and learn simple tool use and abstract concepts.”He thinks bees have emotions, can plan and imagine things, and can recognise themselves as unique entities distinct from other bees. He draws these conclusions from experiments in his lab with female worker bees. “Whenever a bee gets something right, she gets a sugar reward. That’s how we train them, for example, to recognise human faces.” In this experiment, bees shown several monochrome images of human faces learn that one is associated with a sugar reward. “Then, we give them a choice of different faces and no rewards, and ask: which do you choose now? And indeed, they can find the correct one out of an array of different faces.”It takes them only a dozen to two dozen training sessions to become “proficient face recognisers”, he said.In the counting experiment, the bees were trained to fly past three identical landmarks to a food source. “After they had reliably flown there, we either increased the number of landmarks over the same distance or decreased it.” When landmarks were spaced closer together, the bees tended to land earlier than before and vice versa when the landmarks were placed further apart. “So they were using the number of landmarks to say: ah ha, I’ve flown far enough, this is a good place to land.”Since the landmarks were identical, he could be sure the bees weren’t identifying a particular one when deciding how far to fly. “They really could get the solution only by counting the number of landmarks.” The bees were also capable of imagining how things will look or feel: for example, they could identify a sphere visually which previously they had only felt in the dark – and vice versa. And they could understand abstract concepts like “same” or “different”. He began to realise some individual bees were more curious and confident than others. “You also find the odd ‘genius bee’ that does something better than all the other individuals of a colony, or indeed all the other bees we’ve tested..”
Biden admin tosses Trump habitat rule - The Fish and Wildlife Service today formally reversed a key Trump administration Endangered Species Act rule, erasing a regulation that made it easier to shrink critical habitat.In a highly anticipated move that pleases environmentalists, the federal agency announced that the rescinding of the critical habitat rule will be published tomorrow in the Federal Register (E&E News PM, June 4).“This rule will allow our biologists to ensure critical habitat designations contribute to the conservation of ESA-listed species,” Fish and Wildlife Service Director Martha Williams said in a statement, adding that “today’s action helps the Service implement the ESA in ways that support sound science and citizen participation.”The Federal Register publication starts a 30-day countdown to the time when the rule rescission takes effect.A public comment period on the proposal to rescind the critical habitat rule drew about 29,000 public submissions. The FWS said that roughly 28,800 were similar statements from individuals indicating their general support for rescission of the rule.“ We are thrilled to see the Biden administration take this important step towards restoring Endangered Species Act protections,” Andrew Carter, senior conservation policy analyst for Defenders of Wildlife, said in a statement, adding that “our health and well-being depends on our nation’s rich biodiversity, and the Biden administration needs to take every possible step to shore up the law responsible for saving it.”Under the ESA, critical habitat is considered “essential for the conservation of the species.”Any federal agency seeking to authorize, fund or carry out an action on designated land must first consult with the FWS to ensure the action is not likely to destroy or damage a critical habitat.The ESA further states that critical habitat is to be designated “on the basis of the best scientific data available and after taking into consideration the economic impact, the impact on national security, and any other relevant impact.”The law allows exclusion of areas if “the benefits of such exclusion outweigh the benefits of specifying such area as part of the critical habitat,” unless the exclusion “will result in the extinction of the species concerned.”The revoked Trump administration rule expanded the categories of “other relevant impacts” that may be considered when assessing critical habitat. These additional categories included public health and safety; community interests; and the environment, such as increased risk of wildfire (Greenwire, Dec. 17, 2020).
California’s Idle Crop Land May Double as Water Crisis Deepens - California’s historic drought may leave the state with the largest amount of empty farmland in recent memory as farmers face unprecedented cuts to crucial water supplies. The size of fields intended for almonds, rice, wine grapes and other crops left unworked could be around 800,000 acres, double the size of last year and the most in at least several decades, said Josue Medellin-Azuara, an associate professor at University of California Merced. The figure is preliminary as researchers continue to look at satellite imaging and other data.Medellin-Azuara is leading an economic study on farm production and droughts with funding from the California Department of Food and Agriculture. Much of the idle land is in the Central Valley, which accounts for about a quarter of US food production.
Crews reach 50% containment on Washburn fire in Yosemite - Firefighters have made significant progress against the Washburn fire, which began July 7 in Yosemite National Park and has burned nearly 5,000 acres. As of Monday, the fire had scorched 4,911 acres and was 50% contained, mostly within Yosemite. Crews were working to build containment lines as they battled dry and hot conditions, with temperatures in the 90s, and heavy fuels. “Observed fire behavior has diminished by successful suppression activities in most portions of the fire’s growth,” fire officials said in a statement Monday. More than 1,500 personnel were assigned to the fire. The fire has spread to the Sierra National Forest, which borders Yosemite to the south, prompting the closure of a northern section of the forest. Southland storms clear with no lightning as hot, humid conditions forecast to continue Late last week, the fire began burning through a remote canyon on the south fork of the Merced River, the U.S. Forest Service said. The fire is affecting wilderness, roads and major recreation areas and will require “significant firefighting and forest resources,” the forest service said. But just as the fire caused the closure of one area, another reopened. Shortly after it began, the fire prompted the evacuation and closure of the Wawona camping and residential area of Yosemite, near an iconic grove of giant sequoias that fire crews saved. The area was reopened Saturday to residents and property owners with restrictions. It was still unclear when the area would reopen to the general public, park officials said.
Thousands ordered to flee California wildfire near Yosemite - Thousands of people were ordered to evacuate a fast-moving wildfire near Yosemite National Park that exploded in size into one of California's largest wildfires of the year.(AP) — A fast-moving brush fire near Yosemite National Park exploded in size Saturday into one of California's largest wildfires of the year, prompting evacuation orders for thousands of people and shutting off power to more than 2,000 homes and businesses. The Oak Fire started Friday afternoon southwest of the park near the town of Midpines in Mariposa County and by Saturday morning had rapidly grown to 10.2 square miles (26.5 square kilometers), according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire. It erupted as firefighters made progress against an earlier blaze that burned to the edge of a grove of giant sequoias in the southernmost part of Yosemite park. Evacuation orders were put in effect Saturday for over 6,000 people living across a several-mile span in the sparsely populated, rural area, said Daniel Patterson, a spokesman for the Sierra National Forest. “Explosive fire behavior is challenging firefighters,” Cal Fire said in a statement Saturday morning that described the Oak Fire's activity as “extreme with frequent runs, spot fires and group torching.” By Saturday morning, the fire had destroyed 10 residential and commercial structures, damaged five others and was threatening 2,000 more structures, Cal Fire said. The blaze prompted numerous road closures, including a shutdown of Highway 140 between Carstens Road and Allred Road — blocking one of the main routes into Yosemite. More than 400 firefighters, along with helicopters, other aircraft and bulldozers, battled the blaze, which was in a sparsely populated, mostly rural area of the Sierra Nevada foothills, said Daniel Patterson, a spokesman for the Sierra National Forest. Hot weather, low humidity and bone dry vegetation caused by the worst drought in decades was fueling the blaze and challenging fire crews, Patterson said. California has experienced increasingly larger and deadlier wildfires in recent years as climate change has made the West much warmer and drier over the past 30 years. Scientists have said weather will continue to be more extreme and wildfires more frequent, destructive and unpredictable. “The fire is moving quickly. This fire was throwing embers out in front of itself for up to 2 miles yesterday,” Patterson said. “These are exceptional fire conditions." The cause of the fire was under investigation. Pacific Gas & Electric said on its website that more than 2,600 homes and businesses in the area had lost power as of Friday afternoon and there was no indication when it would be restored. “PG&E is unable to access the affected equipment," the utility said. Meanwhile, firefighters have made significant progress against a wildfire that began in Yosemite National Park and burned into the Sierra National Forest. The Washburn Fire was 79% contained Friday after burning about 7.5 square miles (19.4 square kilometers) of forest. It was one of the largest fires of the year in California, along with the Lost Lake Fire in Riverside County that was fully contained in June at 9 square miles (23 square kilometers) The fire broke out July 7 and forced the closure of the southern entrance to Yosemite and evacuation of the community of Wawona as it burned on the edge of Mariposa Grove, home to hundreds of giant sequoias, the world's largest trees by volume.
Crews making progress on Pine Ride Reservation grassland fire — Crews continue fighting a grassland fire on the Pine Ridge Reservation. The Fairburn Volunteer Fire Department is one of the agencies that have been helping fight the fire.One volunteer firefighter with the department posted on Twitter saying the fire appears to be more manageable this morning, crediting yesterday’s hard work from ground crews and air tankers. Large fires causing evacuations on Pine Ridge Reservation KELOLAND News will continue to follow the updates throughout the day. Meanwhile, officials just north of that area are sending out a warning. The Interior Fire Department posted on Twitter that there is a Red Flag Warning and extreme fire danger in that area on Wednesday.
NPS ranger ranks ‘dangerously thin’ as crime rises, report says - Despite an increase in crime, the number of law enforcement officers assigned to national parks has declined substantially since 2005, with park rangers now spread “dangerously thin,” according to a report released today by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility. The advocacy group said the number of permanent law enforcement rangers had declined by 15 percent from 2005 to 2021, while the number of seasonal law enforcement rangers deployed during peak seasons fell by 30 percent. “Despite record levels of visitation, skyrocketing search and rescue operations, and rising crime, the number of law enforcement rangers in our national parks has steadily shrunk,” PEER said in its report. “While overall NPS staffing is down, the drop in law enforcement ranks is even more acute.” In addition, PEER said the ranks of U.S. Park Police officers has hit a nearly 50-year low, with the number of officers in Washington, New York and San Francisco declining from 639 to 494. PEER Executive Director Tim Whitehouse, a former EPA enforcement attorney, said that while NPS has plans to address its deteriorating infrastructure, it has “no comparable plan to reinforce its overstressed ranks of law enforcement rangers.” “The thin green line of park law enforcement rangers is being stretched to the breaking point,” he said.
'Relentless Heat Wave Pummeling Texas And Central Plains To Bring Hottest Temperatures Of Year - Extreme heat threatens Texas and the Southern Plains to start the new work week, with temperatures forecasted to exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit. This new round of heat could be the hottest yet. Large swaths of interior Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas could see predicted highs reaching 110 degrees Fahrenheit and heat indexes much higher. Although triple-digit temperatures are typical for the Central Plains and Texas in July and August, the frequency in the number of 100-degree days is above average. Take, for instance, Tulsa, Oklahoma. The metro area has just recorded its 11th 100-degree day of the season -- the average for the entire season is ten. The National Weather Service (NWS) tweeted Sunday afternoon, "Excessive heat will continue this week across parts of Southern Region. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in effect today across TX/OK."The heat will increase days after the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates Texas' electric power grid, asked customers to conserve energy on Monday and Wednesday. ERCOT blamed grid strains on record high electric demand and the lack of wind and solar power. Reuters noted that a handful of manufacturers, including Toyota Motor Corp., Samsung Electronics Co Ltd., General Motors Co., and LyondellBasell's Houston refinery, dialed back energy usage to preserve grid stability. Tesla Motors even asked owners of its electric cars not to charge "between 3 pm and 8 pm ... to help statewide efforts to manage demand." The same areas are under a dangerous and expanding worsening drought.
Texas wildfires spread, 99% of the state is experiencing some level of drought - Wildfires are a growing danger in Texas as the state sees record-breaking heat. According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, 99% of the state is experiencing some level of drought and there are currently more than a dozen active wildfires.We all know it is hot and dry. There are outdoor burn bans in almost every county in Texas."The wildfires in Palo Pinto, Somervell, and Walker counties occurred in high-risk fuel types, which can exhibit extreme fire behavior when critically dry and exposed to elevated or critical fire weather," Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Analyst Luke Kanclerz said. "In these fuels, resistance to control is often high and makes suppression efforts challenging for firefighters."This map shows 15 active fires (in red). Some of these fires are well contained, but others are not. Here are the active fires in the state as of Wednesday at 7:30 a.m., according to Texas A&M Forest Service:
- Chalk Mountain Fire, Somervell County - est. 6,000 acres, 10% contained
- East County Fire, Kaufman County - 500 acres, 40% contained
- Weeber Fire, Milam County - 20 acres, 70% contained
- West Bend Fire, Wichita County - 6,522 acres, 80% contained
- Spinning Buffalo Fire, Castro County - 180 acres, 90% contained
- Diamond Gate Fire, Coke County - 50 acres, 25% contained
- Walnut Creek Fire, Bastrop County - 36.2 acres, 90% contained
- Gregg 4074 Fire, Gregg County - 3.4 acres, 90% contained
- Fire, Palo Pinto County - 500 acres, 10% contained
- Nelson Creek Fire, Walker County - 1,852 acres, 80% contained
- Stanifer Branch Fire, Bosque County - 160 acres, 80% contained
- King Creek Fire, Kaufman County - 458 acres, 95% contained
- Honey Creek Fire, Uvalde County - 273 acres, 60% contained
- Nethery Road Fire, Kimble County - 3,262 acres, 90% contained
- Salado Brook Fire, Williamson County - 46.8 acres, 75% contained
The Chalk Mountain Fire is about 50 miles southwest of Fort Worth and is the largest wildfire in the state right now. Meanwhile, another 21 wildfires were already extinguished so far this year.
More than 100 million under heat advisories as temperatures rise nationwide -- More than 100 million people remain under heat advisories or excessive heat warnings Thursday as temperatures across the country hit triple digits. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center tweeted that 60 daily high temperature records have been tied or broken, and additional records will likely be set next week. The Washington Post reported that about 60 million people in at least 16 states will experience high temperatures at or above 100 degrees, and a half dozen other states could reach the upper 90s. The NWS website’s map displaying warnings, watches and advisories shows advisories in place in states like New Jersey, South Carolina and Texas and excessive heat warnings in place in states like Mississippi, Arizona and Nevada. The NWS said on Thursday that dangerous heat is continuing to hit the southwestern, south-central and eastern United States, and above-normal temperatures will remain for much of the country through the end of the week. Temperatures will surpass 110 degrees in the southwest and only drop into the 80s at night, and the heat indexes in the southern plains to the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys will top 100 degrees for the next couple days. The most recent heat wave comes after above average heat and dryness dominated June in much of the country. Last month was the 15th warmest June in 128 years and tied for the 12th driest on record. The NWS warned that children, the elderly and those with chronic illnesses are the most vulnerable to heat exposure, and they should take precautions as the heat continues.
Heat wave scorches Northeast, New York, Boston as temperatures skyrocket - - Brutal heat is pressing down on much of the United States this weekend, with nearly 96 million Americans sweltering under heat advisories or warnings and heat indexes in the Northeast soaring into the triple digits.Officials up and down the Interstate 95 corridor urged residents to hydrate and watch for signs of heat-related illness as people flocked to pools and cooling centers for relief in cities stretching from Boston to D.C.More than 30 National Weather Service stations may approach or exceed record temperatures by Sunday, the NWS Weather Prediction Center said Friday. High humidity is pushing heat indexes — the temperature that the air feels like — above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, an about-face from the Northeast’s relatively temperate start to the summer.The extreme heat, expected to continue through early next week, is another warning sign that climate change is increasingly imperilingwhat traditionally is a time associated with relaxing summer vacations. Temperatures are rising, wildfires are becoming more severe and droughts are becoming more common — a striking change from previous generations, scientists say.In some cities, this weekend’s extreme heat caused major events to be altered over safety concerns. The Boston Triathlon originally scheduled for Sunday was postponed to late August “due to the current Heat Emergency.” While New York City’s triathlon and duathlon are still scheduled to take place Sunday, organizers announced they had shortened the bicycling and running segments of the competition.“The safety of our athletes and everyone in attendance is our top priority,” New York City Triathlon organizers said.New York officials converted public spaces to cooling centers and offered spray caps for fire hydrants, which are meant to lessen the amount of water released if people open the hydrants to stay cool. The city’s Weather Service station said the next two days would be the area’s “hottest weekend of the year so far” and warned that temperatures would climb into the 90s and could feel even higher.If New York’s heat wave lasts through Monday, it would match a similar seven-day heat wave in 2013, when heat indexes reached at least 95 degrees each day.Boston was set to experience temperatures in the high 80s to high 90s Saturday, with “comfortable” humidity levels. But the Weather Service warned of more oppressive heat conditions for Sunday, with heat index values up to 105 degrees. Excessive heat can be dangerous, making it hard for the body to cool itself and potentially causing a rapid pulse, nausea or loss of consciousness. The unsafe temperatures are forcing people up and down the Atlantic coast to figure out how to protect themselves.In Philadelphia, where the heat index could reach the low to mid-100s on Sunday, the fire department implored residents not to use fire hydrants to cool off — warning that opening the hydrants could damage them and nearby property and people. It encouraged residents to find public pools and spray parks, instead.The District of Columbia is preparing for temperatures to potentially reach triple digits for the first time since 2016. Temperatures there already felt like the mid-90s on Saturday morning and were continuing to rise, The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang reported. In response, the city extended operating hours at public pools, opened cooling centers and expanded the number of beds in its homeless shelters to offer people a cool place to sleep.
La Niña creating sweltering temperatures across much of U.S., expert says - Several parts of Texas are under excessive heat warnings as temperatures are expected to hit triple digits for the 24th day in a row. Temperatures reached 110 degrees in the Dallas area on Tuesday. The high temperatures caused heat-fueled wildfires to burn several homes near Dallas on Monday and forced several people into mandatory evacuations. "We have a pretty significant drought all across north and central Texas. This drought caused us to go into summer much earlier than we normally see," said Sarah Barnes of the Dallas/Fort Worth National Weather Service Forecasting Office. Nearly 40 million Americans in parts of California, Arizona and the Central Plains are also facing excessive heat temperatures. The National Weather Service finds that the oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon, La Niña, is driving warmer and drier conditions north, creating a drought and prompting more hot temperatures. "It's driving all sorts of weather from, you know, tropical cyclones or just more extreme heat," said Barnes. ERCOT, Texas' power grid, has been asking customers to reduce their electricity use to avoid rolling blackouts. The request comes as the demand for electricity in Texas is on track to set record numbers. The National Weather Service is urging people to stay hydrated and limit time out in the heat.
Texas weather: The end of La Niña is finally in sight - — The International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s (IRI) recently released forecast said to expect La Niña conditions to persist through roughly the end of the calendar year. During La Niña conditions, water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. This typically leads to a drier weather pattern in the southern half of the United States, a significant contributor to the lack of rain in Central Texas this year.According to Columbia Climate School’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, “In mid-July, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although weakened.”The average La Niña typically lasts around 9-12 months and in some cases, up to two years. The current La Niña began in September 2020, so the recent weakening could be signaling the approaching end of the pattern, as a La Niña lasting more than two years is exceedingly rare.While the IRI is giving this La Niña a 70% chance of lasting through the early winter, they are expecting that ENSO-neutral conditions will take hold with the arrival of 2023. ENSO-neutral is the absence of a La Niña or an El Niño. The influence of La Niña tends to be more pronounced in the winter months, and here in Central Texas, typically favors a warmer and drier winter season. A La Niña pattern is also correlated with an increase in hail and tornado events in the spring and a more active Atlantic hurricane season. That being said, a lack of La Niña (or ENSO-neutral) pattern by early next year, in theory, would result in more “normal” or average-like seasonal weather patterns.
More than 1 000 heat-related deaths reported in Spain and Portugal - The second heatwave to hit Europe since mid-June 2022 has claimed more than 1 000 lives over the past 8 days, with most of them in Portugal. Numerous high temperature records have been broken and more are expected to fall over the next few days. According to Spanish Government’s Carlos III Health Insitute (ISCIII), 360 heat-related deaths were reported from Sunday, July 10 to Friday, July 15, 2022. ISCIII recorded 15 deaths due to high temperatures on July 10, followed by 28 on July 11, 41 on July 12, 60 on July 13, 93 on July 14 when temperatures reached 45 °C (113 °F), and 123 on July 15. This follows 830 heat-related deaths last month in the first heatwave of the season. Portugal’s Health Ministry recorded 659 heat-related deaths from July 9 to 16, with the peak of 440 deaths reported on July 14 when temperatures exceeded 40 °C (104 °F) in several regions and reached 47 °C (116.6 °F) in PinhĂŁo. If confirmed, this will set the new national July high temperature record for the month of July. The current record is 46.5 °C (115.7 °F) set in Amarelaja in 1995. According to Portugal’s national meteorological institute, some 96% of the mainland was under severe or extreme drought conditions at the end of June. Similar temperatures have been observed in France over the past couple of days but the worst is yet to come. The heat has now spread NE toward Ireland and UK, where first ever Red Extreme heat warning was issued for July 18 and 19, covering parts of central, northern, eastern and southeastern England.2An Amber Extreme heat warning is also in place for much of England and Wales and southern Scotland until the end of July 19.Meanwhile, wildfires are raging across southern Europe, destroying homes and forcing tens of thousands to evacuate.
European heat wave devastates France -- By late Monday afternoon, 15,000 hectares of forest had burned, and 31,000 residents and tourists were evacuated from various localities in France’s Gironde area into seven emergency shelters. Forest fires are currently burning throughout the Mediterranean, across Spain, Portugal, Croatia, Greece, France, and Morocco. These massive fires are being driven by a record-breaking heat wave across France and Europe, the second of this year following temperatures in the high 30s°C in mid-June. Meteorologist François Gourand told the French Press Agency that conditions in southwestern France were a “heat apocalypse.” On Tuesday, temperatures are expected to reach 41°C in Paris. Several record high temperatures were recorded across Western France on Monday. According to MeteoFrance, Brest recorded a temperature of 39.3 degrees, a massive 4.2 degrees higher than the previous record from the heat wave of August 2003. Records were also broken in Nantes (42°C) and Saint-Brieuc (39.5°C). The highest temperature recorded on Monday in France was 42.6°C in Biscarrosse, this broke the record of 41.7°C which was only set during last month’s heat wave. Fifteen departments in Western France were under red heat wave alert until early Tuesday morning, while most of central, northern, eastern and southern France remain under an orange alert. The Gironde region is currently facing two huge forest fires, one near the town of Landiras and the other in La Teste-de-Buch. The police prefect of Gironde, Fabienne Buccio, said on Monday that the fire is still spreading and that “the situation is not fixed.” As of Monday afternoon, over 1,700 firefighters are fighting the blazes with the support of nine water-bomber planes. Landiras, which has 4,100 inhabitants, has been fully evacuated and the residents placed into temporary shelters. Many in La Teste-de-Buch, which has a population of over 26,000, have also been evacuated. David Brunner, a firefighter with 30 years’ experience, leading the efforts to extinguish one of the fires told Le Monde, “It’s never-ending. I’ve never known a fire like this.” The fires have been ablaze since July 12, when temperatures in the area were already in the mid-30s. Since Sunday, the fires have been fanned by record-breaking temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius and gusts of over 50 kilometers per hour on Monday. Although temperatures are due to drop in the Gironde region from Monday evening onwards, the Tuesday forecast is still dry with an increased wind speed of 70 kilometres per hour on Tuesday. Forest fires of this extent in July are highly unusual, with the peak season usually in late August. Already in France this year over 32,800 hectares have been burned in forest fires, nearly five times the 7,000-hectare average for mid-July. Across the EU nearly 350,000 hectares have burned this year—three times larger than the mid-July average. Before the traditional forest fire season even begins in August, the losses are approaching the average of 500,000 hectares that has traditionally been lost over the course of an entire year. The spread of forest fires across Europe in July has been caused by exceptionally dry ground, following an unusually dry spring, high winds, and back-to-back heat waves. The fires in the Gironde region have been further fueled by its high concentration of maritime pines, which have very high amounts of flammable resin. Over 1,000 people have already died from heat exhaustion in Portugal and Spain over the past week. It is likely France will also see many heat-related deaths. Few measures have been taken to protect the elderly and vulnerable in France, while in many cities and regions temperatures have or will exceed the peaks reached during the two-week heat wave of August 2003, when 15,000 people in France died from heat exhaustion.
U.K. temps hit record highs as fires rage - The record-setting heat wave that’s warped European asphalt, triggered infectious wildfires and embroiled millions tightened its grip today as scientists warned even more misery is on the way. In a remarkable turn for the global thermostat, the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office said officials recorded a provisional temperature of 40.2 degrees Celsius — 104.36 degrees Fahrenheit — at Heathrow Airport in the afternoon. The provisional temperature beat the previous record of 38.7 C set in 2019 (Climatewire, July 18). “I didn’t expect to see this in my career,” Stephen Belcher, chief scientist for the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service, said in a Twitter video. The downcast-sounding scientist added that “we could see temperatures like this every three years” if global emissions continue at a high rate. “We’re already committed to warming, and these extremes will get more extreme in the future,” Belcher said. By 11 a.m. EDT today, 4 p.m. in the United Kingdom, the Met Office was reporting that “temperatures have now risen above 40 degrees C in a number of UK sites, however fresher conditions are arriving across the far west of the country.” A first-ever Red Extreme heat warning remained in place across parts of England, together with a larger Amber Extreme heat warning for much of England, Wales and southern Scotland. A Red Extreme warning means that “substantial changes in working practices and daily routines may be required” and that there is a “high risk of failure of heat-sensitive systems and equipment,” according to the Met Office. Meanwhile, the London Fire Brigade declared a “major incident” because of grass and building fires popping up across the city. “It comes as we’ve attended more than 1,000 grass fires since June,” the fire department reported on Twitter.
Temperatures in the UK exceed 40.2 °C (104.3 °F) for the first time on record – (animated weather maps) A provisional temperature of 40.2 °C (104.3 °F) was recorded at Heathrow, UK at 12:50 LT on July 19, 2022, which, if confirmed, will beat the previous record of 38.7 °C (101.6 °F) set in 2019 by 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). With temperatures continuing to climb through the afternoon we will have to wait to see what the new record will actually be. New temperature records could also be set for Wales and Scotland, UK Met Office said.1 The first-ever Red Extreme Heat warning is still in place across parts of England and a more extensive Amber Extreme heat warning, covering much of England, Wales and southern Scotland. With the extreme heat today comes the risk of thunderstorms, particularly in parts of the southwest today and, later, the northeast of England. A Yellow Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for parts of the Southeast tomorrow. “We are continuing to see exceptional temperatures in the UK today and it is important people plan for the heat and consider changing their routines. This level of heat can have adverse health effects,” said Neil Armstrong, Met Office Chief Meteorologist. Temperatures are expected to start to return closer to normal for the time of year as we go through the rest of the week with cooler air pushing across the country from the west. “We have seen temperature records tumbling. A new UK national climate temperature record should be a rare occurrence, and we would normally expect a new record to only exceed the previous one by a fraction of a degree,” the head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre, Mark McCarthy, said.2 “However, yesterday we saw 39 stations across a large swathe of England exceed the previous highest daily temperature extreme, with the highest exceeding the previous record – set in Cambridge in July 2019 – by a remarkable 1.6 °C (2.8 °F).” “A factor of the recent extreme hot spell were the overnight temperatures which also broke previous records by a large margin with Kenley Airfield, Greater London recording a minimum of 25.8 °C (78.4 °F) beating the previous record by 1.9 °C (3.4 °F). “At country and regional level the previous two days has also seen Wales and Scotland produce new national maximum temperature records.”
U.K. shatters heat record 3 times in a matter of hours - Extreme heat shattered records in the United Kingdom yesterday as temperatures hurtled above 104 degrees Fahrenheit for the first time since the country started keeping measurements.It may well be a startling glimpse into the country’s climate future as the planet continues to warm.Before now, the highest temperature ever recorded in the United Kingdom was 101.7 degrees, observed in Cambridge in July 2019. Yesterday, as a staggering heat wave gripped the nation, temperatures rose to 102.4 degrees in the English village of Charlwood, officially breaking the record.Just hours later, London’s Heathrow Airport recorded a temperature of 104.4 degrees, shattering the record for a second time.Temperatures later matched the new record at St. James’s Park in London, and then broke it for a third time — all in the same day — when they rose to 104.5 degrees at the village of Coningsby, according to the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office.These records are provisional until the measurement equipment has been inspected and the temperatures officially approved, the Met Office said. But, for now, it looks like history has been made.Ireland recorded its second-hottest day on record — and Dublin’s all-time highest temperature — when thermometers at Phoenix Park hit 91.6 degrees. The all-time Irish record of 91.9 degrees was observed at Kilkenny Castle in 1887, although scientists have debated the reliability of the 19th century measurements.Meanwhile, across the English Channel, France also sweltered under extreme heat on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures in some places rocketed above 108 degrees, according to the French national weather service.It’s the continuation of a staggering heat wave that’s gripped much of western Europe for the past week (Climatewire, July 18). Record-breaking heat and raging wildfires swept through Spain and Portugal last week, killing more than a thousand people so far and forcing thousands more to evacuate.The heat shifted toward France and the United Kingdom over the weekend, with both countries issuing “red” alerts in advance of the extreme temperatures. It was the first time Britain had issued such a warning.
Britain sees hottest day on record — with mercury set to rise further - Has it ever, in human history, been this hot in the British Isles? Maybe not.If you want to mark an unnatural, scary, real-world data point for climate change, it is here in Britain, right now, which saw its hottest day on record Tuesday. Temperatures in six locations reached 40 Celsius or higher, with London Heathrow and St. James Park hitting 40.2 Celsius — or 104.3 Fahrenheit. It’s an extreme-weather episode, a freak peak heat, not seen since modern record keeping began a century and a half ago.And probably not since weather observation got serious here in 1659. And maybe far longer.Hitting 40C, for British climate scientists, is a kind of a unicorn event that had appeared in their models but until recently seemed almost unbelievable and unattainable this soon. Cairo? Karachi? Phoenix? They are world-beating furnaces.But London? The high-latitude city — with its recorded history dating back to the Romans — had probably never before experienced temperatures such as those on Tuesday.Surely no Britons alive now — or their Britain-based great- or great-great-grandparents — had felt 40C without traveling abroad. Queen Victoria, William Shakespeare, Henry VIII? They probably never faced down a 40C day within the British Isles.This nation was not built to withstand such heat. Its homes, workplaces, roads, rails, hospitals and infrastructure were constructed for temperate weather — Shakespeare’s “other Eden, demi-paradise” — not this inferno. Britain has some of the most extensive weather records in the world, logged via diaries, observation and instruments as far back as the Age of Enlightenment, including daily records archived since the 1770s and monthly maximums and minimums dating back to the 1660s. Until Tuesday, the highest official temperature was 38.7C (101.7F), recorded at the Cambridge Botanic Garden on July 25, 2019. The Met Office reported that at least 34 observation sites across the country topped that previous maximum on Tuesday.Almost all the highest recorded temperatures have occurred in recent years.“We are absolutely confident we have not recorded a 40C day going back to the mid-1850s,” Mark McCarthy, manager of the National Climate Information Center for the Met Office, told The Washington Post, referring to the beginning of the weather service’s instrument-measured temperature records.
The two waves hitting Europe and the U.K.- Things suddenly look pretty uncomfortable in the U.K. and Europe. Let’s start with the weather. Temperatures hit record highs across several cities in France on Monday, with some locations hitting 107 and 108 degrees. Ireland recorded its hottest day on record, and Britain had its third hottest day on record, clocking in at around 100 degrees in Suffolk. Wildfires in several countries have forced thousands to evacuate. At at least one British airport, the runways reportedly started to melt.Sure, it gets hotter in parts of the U.S., but those places usually have air conditioning. Many parts of the U.K. don’t — including some lines of the London underground and older buildings where many elderly residents could be in serious danger of heat exhaustion or heatstroke.Hundreds of people have already died in Spain’s heat wave. British public health officials have said even healthy people are at risk, and the government has declared a national emergency. A study published last year in The Lancet estimated that more than 350,000 deaths in 2019 were linked to extreme heat.Then, there’s the virus. As the Omicron subvariant BA.5 marches through the U.K. and Europe, cases there have been on the rise.On Monday, European Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides alerted the bloc’s health ministers to the renewed coronavirus threat, reports POLITICO’s Carlo Martuscelli.In a Monday letter viewed by POLITICO, Kyriakides wrote that this latest wave has coincided with higher numbers of patients in hospitals and intensive care units, and that countries must prepare for a “possible worsening of the epidemiological situation.”In the U.K. over the weekend, infections were up 30 percent over the past week,according to the BBC. As the Omicron subvariant BA.5 marches through the U.K. and Europe, cases there have been on the rise.On Monday, European Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides alerted the bloc’s health ministers to the renewed coronavirus threat, reports POLITICO’s Carlo Martuscelli.In a Monday letter viewed by POLITICO, Kyriakides wrote that this latest wave has coincided with higher numbers of patients in hospitals and intensive care units, and that countries must prepare for a “possible worsening of the epidemiological situation.” In the U.K. over the weekend, infections were up 30 percent over the past week,according to the BBC.
Europe’s big dry – Europe is staring into one of its driest summers in living memory. Drought alerts have been issued for much of the Continent, fires have driven villagers from their homes, great rivers are sluggishly low and a brutal heat wave — which could reach a record-breaking zenith in the coming days — will strain agricultural production and nature’s resilience. “We are seeing, really, largely unprecedented drought in many parts” of Europe, said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The drought has already crimped production of hydroelectric power and food, adding to market pressure from the war in Ukraine. Many city authorities have asked residents to cut back their use of drinking water. Things could get much worse. While there is a possibility that weather patterns shift and a wet August brings relief, the hottest part of the year has only just begun and the forecasts are portentous. “For parts of agriculture, things are looking bad already. The forests are weakened. A lot would need to happen for it to become a good year,” Unhelpfully, severe heat is predicted in the coming days across much of Europe. The U.K.’s Met Office issued its first ever “red alert” for Monday and Tuesday as it forecast temperatures over 40 degrees for the first time in history. Such temperatures will further dry surface soil already stripped of much of its water. Heat waves also cause trees and shrubs to suck water from deeper underground as they try to survive, depleting the water table on which farmers, industry, cities and nature all rely as a backup during dry spells. Ecosystems can collapse under the strain, warned Niko Wanders, an assistant professor of hydrological extremes at Utrecht University in the Netherlands.“Those impacts take more than just one week, they take years to recover,” he cautioned.In the Po River basin in northern Italy, home to a third of the country's population and one of Europe’s food bowls, there has been little or no rain for more than 200 days. Italy’s longest river has shriveled, leaving a scar of sand across the plains. The Zibello, a barge sunk during the Second World War, has loomed out of the waters. Italy’s collapsing government has declared a state of emergency across much of the north.High in the Alps, the snow that feeds reservoirs and hydroelectric dams also failed this winter. Hydropower in Italy is down 40 percent compared with last year, AFP reported. This dip in power generation is not restricted to Italy and it comes at the worst possible moment for the European Union, which is battered by high power prices and the need to use every possible source of energy as alternatives to Russian gas. In Portugal last month, dams produced a quarter of the electricity they did in the previous June. With global food flows already squeezed, the drought has Europe’s farmers spooked. The European Commission predicts that this year’s total yield of cereal crops, including wheat, barley and corn, will be 2.5 percent lower than last year due to the dry weather.
Europe's mightiest river is drying up amid a record heatwave, causing shipping issues and deepening the continent's energy woes -The River Rhine, one of Europe's most important rivers which is used to transport cargo including chemicals, grains, and coal across the continent, is drying up amid record-breaking summer heatwaves.Germany's Federal Institute of Hydrology has warned that rivers in Central Europe are at "unusually low" levels and are continuing to fall.Much of the 800-mile Rhine passes through Germany, Europe's biggest economy, but the river also runs through Austria, Switzerland, and the Netherlands as well as along the border between France and Germany.The water level at Kaub, the river's bottleneck, was 71 centimeters (just under 28 inches) on Tuesday morning, according to Germany's federal administration for waterways and shipping. When it reached 77 centimeters (30 inches) last week, it was already at the lowest level for this time of year since at least 2007, Bloomberg reported, citing government data.Southwest Germany news outlet SWR reported that the low level of water is limiting shipping on the Rhine south of Duisburg and Cologne and that for days, freight ships haven't been able to travel fully-loaded.A representative for Germany's Federal Institute of Hydrology toldBloomberg that if the level at Kaub dips down to 40 centimeters (15.7 inches), it's uneconomical for vessels carrying commodities to sail past it given how little cargo they'd be able to carry.The low water levels already impacting energy supplies. The supply of coal to two power stations in Germany – one in Mannheim and another in Karlsruhe – has been "affected" by low water levels in the Rhine since July 13, according to the EEX exchange.A spokesperson for Shell, which owns refineries along the Rhine, told Bloomberg that the company was monitoring the situation.This comes after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused huge disruptions to Europe's energy market. Western nations have been moving to pivot from Russian energy sources, while Russia itself has cut off some gas supplies to countries including Germany over their refusal to pay in rubles.In 2018, Germany entered a brief recession, sparked in part by low water levels on the Rhine. Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesIn late June, Germany announced that it had entered the second of its three-stage gas emergency plan and warned that supplies were under pressure.To plug the cap, Germany has imported more natural gas from Norway and the Netherlands, as well as more liquefied natural gas. It's also made plans to fire up idle coal power plants as a short-term fix and Hamburg has even warned that it could ration hot water. Germany's weather service issued heat warnings for almost all the country on Tuesday. Temperatures are set to reach nearly 40 degrees Celsius (just over 100 degrees Fahrenheit) in some parts of the country, including Berlin, Leipzig, and Hannover, though the areas through which the Rhine flows are expected to be slightly cooler.
Deaths mount, wildfires spread as heat wave shatters records across Europe - The mounting death toll and devastation from wildfires and drought are exposing the indifference and inaction of state authorities across Europe to the catastrophic impact of global warming. The heat wave is setting records across Europe. PinhĂŁo saw the highest temperature ever recorded in Portugal, 47°C (116.6°F); France saw 64 cities set records, including Biscarrosse, 42.6°C; while London’s Heathrow Airport recorded 40.2°C. Yesterday marked the first time a temperature over 40°C was ever recorded in Britain. The confirmed death toll from the heat wave on the Iberian Peninsula alone is now already above 1,700. Portuguese General Health Authority Director Graça Freitas reported yesterday that there were 1,063 heat-related deaths between July 7 and July 18 in the country, adding: “We have to be more and more prepared for periods of high temperatures.” The Carlos III Institute confirmed that Spain had seen 678 heat-related deaths between July 10 and July 17. This toll could rise explosively in the coming days. Former UK Government Chief Scientist David King warned that the British excess death toll from the heat wave could reach 10,000. “We’re a country with relatively high humidity,” King said, adding, “High humidity, high temperatures, quite simply that’s higher than the body temperature should be. If you are even in the shade outdoors at 40°C and 80 percent humidity, you won’t live for very long.” Portugal and Western Europe broadly are particularly vulnerable to heat waves due to climate change. Lisbon University Professor Carlos Antunes noted: “With climate change, it is expected that this increase in mortality will intensify, and therefore we have to take measures at the public health level to minimize the impact.” As they pursue a policy of mass infection and death with COVID-19, Europe’s governments are writing off any collective action to address global warming and the heat wave. After UK Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab cynically told Britons to “enjoy the heat” and be “resilient,” the tragic death of Madrid street cleaner JosĂ© Antonio González highlighted European governments’ inaction and indifference to the plight of workers laboring in the heat. At least 14 Madrid street cleaners have fallen victim to heatstroke, working in the sun in heavy polyester uniforms. González, aged 60, was transported to hospital after being found unconscious on the ground with a body temperature of over 41°C (106°F). He later died of a heart attack.
Wildfire rages near Athens, Greece, as Britain faces aftermath of hottest day — A wildfire fueled by gale-force winds raged in the mountains near Athens, Greece, on Wednesday, forcing hundreds — including hospital patients — to evacuate, as Britain counted the cost of its hottest day ever.Wildfires have ravaged Europe this month, breaking out in Greece, France, Spain, Turkey, Italy and Portugal and fueled by increasingly hot and dry weather that scientists link to climate change.Thick clouds of smoke darkened the sky over Mount Penteli, 16 miles north of Greece’s capital, where close to 500 firefighters, 120 fire engines and 15 water-carrying planes tried to contain the flames.The blaze, which broke out Tuesday afternoon, continued to burn on several fronts Wednesday.Authorities said they evacuated nine settlements. One hospital and the National Observatory of Athens were also evacuated and police helped at least 600 residents out of fire-stricken areas. In France, where firefighters in the southwestern Gironde region have been battling since July 12 to contain huge forest fires, Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau said more money needed to be invested to tackle such threats. “We are having to confront a quite exceptional situation,” he said, referring to damage caused in Brittany and southern France. President Emmanuel Macron was due to visit the Gironde region Wednesday. In Britain, firefighters worked through the night to damp down wildfires and engineers raced Wednesday to fix train tracks that buckled in the heat as residents woke up to the aftermath of a day when temperatures topped 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) for the first time.The London Fire Brigade endured its busiest day since World War II on Tuesday as fires destroyed dozens of properties in the capital and sent flames racing through tinderbox-dry grassland at the sides of railway tracks and roads. Trains running from London up the east coast of England were canceled at least until midday Wednesday after a fire near the city of Peterborough in central England damaged signaling equipment. Other fires on the network damaged tracks and overhead lines.
Europe's heatwave reaches Poland, Greece as it moves eastwards, brings wildfires - The vast heatwave covering swathes of Europe moved steadily eastwards on Thursday (July 21), forcing countries including Italy, Poland and Slovenia to issue their highest heatwave alerts as firefighters battled wildfires across the continent.Since temperatures in southern Europe began to soar earlier this month, the heatwave has caused hundreds of deaths and sparked wildfires that have burned tens of thousands of hectares of land in countries including Spain, Portugal and France. Britain and France both saw record high temperatures on Tuesday. The extreme heatwave is part of a global pattern of rising temperatures, widely attributed by scientists and climatologists to climate change caused by human activity. It is forecast to dump searing heat on much of China into late August.Greece, which contained a huge wildfire that raged near Athens for two days and was fanned by high winds, urged Europe to do more to tackle climate change."The climate crisis is now evident across Europe, with particular intensity in the wider Mediterranean region. The cocktail of high temperatures, gusty winds and heavy drought inevitably leads to wildfires," government spokesman Giannis Oikonomou said on Thursday. "Europe must act in a coordinated and rapid manner to reverse the climate crisis," Mr Oikonomou told reporters. "The solution cannot be given at a national level, because the problem is transnational and huge."Greek firefighters had tackled 390 forest fires in one week, about 50 to 70 blazes a day, he said. According to the meteorological station in Penteli outside Athens, where the fire broke out on Tuesday, winds reached 113kmh at one point.Fuelled by climate change, wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity in many countries, spreading smoke that contains noxious gases, chemicals and particulate matter and that can be damaging to health.In Poland, the authorities issued heat warnings for many parts of the country, with temperatures as high as 36.7 deg C measured in the western town of Kornik. In the northern port city of Gdansk, many residents and tourists headed for local beaches to cool down.A large wildfire fire broke out near the southern town of Brzesko, the Onet news website reported. Firefighters told Onet that more than 50 hectares of fields had already burned, and that the fire was moving towards a forest.
Rhine Water Levels Drop Below Critical Threshold That Could Halt Barge Traffic -Water levels on the River Rhine have steadily declined and fallen to emergency levels this week, indicating more headwinds for the German economy already careening towards recession. One of the most vital waterways in Europe's economic heartland is below a very important 78 centimeters (31 inches) threshold at a measuring station in Kaub, Germany. As of Wednesday, Kaub sits at 68 centimeters (27 inches) and is dropping fast, indicating that barge transport disruptions could be imminent. Riverlake, a vessel broker, already says barges hauling goods between Upper Rhine from Rotterdam have reduced weight to about a third of capacity to improve draft in shallow parts of the waterway, according to Bloomberg. For some context, barges on inland waterways haul about 5%-10% of German freight, with about 80% of that on the Rhine, including a third of domestic shipping of crude oil, natural gas, and coal, Berenberg economist Salomon Fiedler wrote Wednesday in a note to clients. Citing a report by the Kiel Institute, Fiedler said if Kaub sustains water levels below 78 centimeters for several weeks or longer, German industrial production will be "about 1% lower than in a month with no low-water days." He said the following month would be an impact of 1.5%. The water crisis on the 800-mile (1,288-kilometer) river that runs from Switzerland to the North Sea is similar to the one in 2018. The previous crisis resulted in transport disruptions that hit industrial production. One noticeable difference is the economy today is sliding toward a recession as it contends with an energy crisis, high inflation, faltering economic growth, and supply chain bottlenecks -- unlike anything ever seen before. Germany's economy grew by a paltry 0.2% in the first quarter, just barely escaping a technical recession following a contraction in the prior quarter, while the inflation rate printed a mind-numbing 7.6% in June. Alarming signs of stagflation are developing, and hyperinflation of energy prices thanks to Europe's sanctions on Russia is the leading cause of the economic turbulence. A recent flash purchasing managers' index shows the rapid deceleration in Europe's largest economy. "On the one hand, Germany is most likely sliding into a recession already. This would suggest that industrial production and the need for shipping would be lower anyway, reducing the sting of low water levels. "Supply chains were already under heavy stress and inventories depleted after two years of pandemic-related disruption. The ability of firms to absorb delays in transportation is probably more limited than normal," Fiedler said. Earlier this week, we first pointed out the emerging crisis in a note titled "Germany's Energy Crisis About To Get Even Worse As Rhine Water Levels Plummet." The countdown has begun as Kaub's water levels are below a threshold that, if sustained through mid-August, could reduce barge activity on the waterway and worsen the economic outlook.
Nuclear power plant lowers output to protect fish as Europe grapples with heatwave - A nuclear power plant in Switzerland is lowering its output in order to prevent the river that cools it from hitting temperature levels dangerous to marine life, in the latest example of how Europe's current heatwave is having wide-reaching effects.On Monday, the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation's international unit, citing the country's public broadcaster SRF, said the Beznau nuclear power plant had "temporarily scaled back operations" to stop the temperature of the River Aare from rising "to levels that are dangerous for fish."The Beznau plant is made up of two light water reactors that collectively produce roughly 6,000 gigawatt hours of electricity annually. This, plant operator Axpo says, "corresponds to around twice the electricity consumption of the city of Zurich."Instead of using a cooling tower to regulate temperatures, the Beznau facility uses the River Aare. Through its operations, the plant heats this water, which is eventually funneled back to the river.According to Axpo, the plant heats the water by 0.7 to 1 degree Celsius when it's in "full load operation," adding that this is dependent on water conditions. With Switzerland currently experiencing high temperatures, the decision has been taken to reduce output.
More than 480 000 people told to evacuate as record-breaking rainfall hits southwestern Japan - More than 480 000 people living in southwestern Japan have been told to evacuate on July 19, 2022, as record-breaking rains continue falling over the region. Heavy rains are expected to continue through July 20. Residents in the affected region are urged to be on their guard against landslides, floods in low-lying areas, and river flooding. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), linear rainbands triggered localized rain in parts of Fukuoka, Saga and Oita prefectures in Kyushu and Yamaguchi Prefecture from late July 18 through the wee hours of July 19. Parts of Kyoto and Shiga prefectures registered record downpours of around 90 mm (3.54 inches) per hour on July 19, according to the JMA. As a result, shinkansen services were briefly suspended between Kyoto and Maibara, Shiga Prefecture, according to operator JR Central.1 The city of Hita, Oita Prefecture, recorded 81.5 mm (3.20 inches) of rainfall per hour, Kurume, Fukuoka recorded 63 mm (2.48 inches) while Yamaga, Kumamoto registered 62 mm (2.44 inches), according to the agency.
Severe flash floods hit Fars Province, leaving at least 20 people dead and 3 missing, Iran - At least 20 people have been killed and 3 others remain missing after heavy rainfall hit parts of southern Iran on July 22, 2022.According to Yousef Kargar, governor of Estahban County in the province of Fars, heavy rains hit the towns of Ij and Roodbal around 17:00 LT on Jul 22, causing severe flash flooding.“As a result of the flood, 17 bodies have been found in the vicinity of Estahban, of which 13 have been identified,” Kargar said.Rescue teams saved 55 people trapped by floodwaters but at least 6 people remain missing, Kargar added.Rescuers later found three more bodies.
Destructive tornado outbreak hits Jiangsu Province, China - A severe weather outbreak hit China’s Jiangsu Province on July 20, 2022, producing at least 5 tornadoes and leaving significant damage. The number of confirmed tornadoes is expected to rise as more information comes in. A violent killer tornado hit Xiangshui, Yancheng City during the afternoon hours (LT), completely destroying brick houses, downing high tension towers, and tangling motorcycles around trees. “Unfortunately, we’ve heard injuries and fatalities,” said Eric Wang, Chinese extreme weather enthusiast. The Jiangsu weather bureau rated it as an EF-3 . This tornado was spawned by the same parent supercell as the Guannan tornado, which damaged/destroyed more than 650 homes. Another powerful tornado today was the one near Guanyun, Jiangsu Province.
Water resources to become less predictable with climate change - Water resources will fluctuate increasingly and become more and more difficult to predict in snow-dominated regions across the Northern Hemisphere by later this century, according to a comprehensive new climate change study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The research team found that, even in regions that keep receiving about the same amount of precipitation, streamflow will become more variable and unpredictable. As snowpack recedes in a warmer future and fails to provide reliable runoff, the amount and timing of water resources will become increasingly reliant on periodic episodes of rain. "Water managers will be at the whim of individual precipitation events instead of having four-to-six months lead time to anticipate snowmelt and runoff," said NCAR scientist Will Wieder, the lead author. "Water management systems in snow-dominated regions are based on the predictability of snowpack and runoff, and much of that predictability could go away with climate change." Observations show that snowpack is already melting earlier, and even declining in many regions. This decline will become so pronounced toward the end of the century that the amount of water contained in snowpack at the end of an average winter in parts of the U.S. Rocky Mountains could plummet by nearly 80%, the scientists found. The changes in runoff and streamflow are likely to have cascading impacts on ecosystems that depend on reliable water from snow, the study warns. Although the changes won't be uniform across regions, more snow-free days and longer growing seasons will put stress on water resources, drying out soils in many areas and heightening fire risk. The study assumes that emissions of greenhouse gasses continue at a high rate (a scenario known as SSP3-7.0). Wieder said that the most severe impacts on snowpack, runoff, and ecosystems would likely be avoided if society successfully reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
Massive sandstorm engulfs parts of Qinghai, plunging towns into darkness, China - A massive sandstorm engulfed parts of northwest China’s Qinghai Province on July 20, 2022, disrupting traffic and plugging towns into darkness.The worst hit was Haixi Mongol and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture where the storm lasted nearly 4 hours.At the storm’s peak, the visibility dropped below 200 m (650 feet).The video below shows the storm rising ominously on the horizon before it moved into populated areas, blotting out the sunlight as winds recorded at 53km/h (33mph) whipped up clouds of sand.
Sand dunes experience significant erosion due to sea-level rise and extreme storms - Sand dunes on the northern coasts of Devon and Cornwall have been eroded by up to 15 meters in the past 15 years, according to new research. A study by members of the Coastal Processes Research Group at the University of Plymouth demonstrated that the vast majority of coastal dunes in the South West experience chronic erosion. Using survey data from 25 dune systems they found that they have been retreating at an average rate of 0.5 to 1 m per year, with only a few dunes in relatively sheltered locations being stable or growing. This equated to a total retreat over the 15-year period of anything between five and 15 m, with the three worst affected locations being Westward Ho! in North Devon, and Porthcothan and Porthkidney in North Cornwall. Writing in the journal Marine Geology, the researchers say that for half of the retreating systems, the amount of sand within the dunes has actually increased. This means sand from the dune face, as well as from the beach, is being transported over the top of the dunes by a combination of wind and waves, and causing the dune system to migrate landward. This is referred to as "dune roll-over," and means there will be no immediate loss of dune habitat. However, if the dune is pushed back into coastal infrastructure or defenses it will be squeezed and that could reduce the dune area. Gerd Masselink, Professor of Coastal Geomorphology at the University of Plymouth and the study's lead author, said, "Dune systems are natural forms of coastal defense. However, they are expected to exhibit increased erosion rates as a result of climate change, notably through sea-level rise and, potentially, increased storminess. "It is really important to allow the dunes to migrate as this will preserve valuable coastal habitats and enhances coastal resilience. However, coastal authorities and communities are generally reluctant to allow the coastal zone to be pushed back and prefer to keep the coastal line where it is. We will have to get used to the idea that climate change will push our coastal systems slowly landward and we need to adapt to and not resist this, wherever we can." The study is part of ongoing research by the University into the changes taking place along our coastlines as a result of climate change, and was carried out using both in-situ observations and a widely-used coastal retreat model. It found that the observed dune retreat rate was two to three times greater than that predicted by the model.
Climate warming, water management impacts on West Florida's continental shelf - The continental shelf is the submerged extension of a continent and as such it is at the crossroad of terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric influences. This confluence is the lead driver of the high biological productivity that often characterizes the continental shelf regions. Their productivity is not only critical to the ecosystems that it sustains but also to the livelihood of coastal communities such as tourism, fishing, aquaculture and more. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to have profound implications on shelf dynamics as changes in local atmospheric circulation, heat, and evaporative fluxes can significantly affect the balance between surface fluxes, horizontal transports and vertical mixing. In addition, changes to freshwater discharge from the continent whether by land management, climate driven rainfall or man-made modified freshwater discharge, have large impacts on shelf dynamics and may mitigate or exacerbate changes associated with climate. One region where these changes are particularly evident is the Gulf of Mexico. The West Florida coast is under the influence of a significant number of freshwater inputs. They drain fresh water from precipitation (direct or delayed, local or regional) from rivers, streams, lakes, and canals into the near shore, majorly contributing to the estuarine properties of West Florida Shelf waters. This fresh water usually expands westward and southward over the shelf, and contributes to the riverine properties of the inner shelf waters. South Florida is currently implementing the most expansive restoration project ever undertaken to restore the Greater Everglades Ecosystem. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan is restoring the quantity, quality, timing and distribution of freshwater flows to its pre-drainage levels. While it seems possible to assess the effect of changes in water runoff locally, there are also long-range implications at depth, on the inner and mid shelf, that remain to be understood.
Climate: Scientists Stunned to Find Atlantic Plankton 90% Gone; Marine Life, our Oxygen Imperiled - “The erosion of ocean biodiversity is having multiple effects on ocean-related planetary health [81,64,66,108]. For example, the Ocean Living Planet Index, which measures trends in 10,380 populations of 3038 vertebrate species, declined 52% between 1970 and 2010. The OLPI also indicates that the global ocean fish stocks were over-exploited by 29%, ocean species declined by 39% and the world coral reefs decreased by 50% [160]. Various anthropogenic as well as climate change drivers are responsible for ocean biodiversity erosion. According to Luypaert et al. [86], among many stressors, climate change bears a 14% responsibility for ocean species threatened to extinction . . .A warm and more acidic ocean threatens the production pattern of phytoplankton, which during its growth emits much of the oxygen that permeates our atmosphere and transfers energy for higher trophic levels in the marine ecosystem [42,154].”GOES’ initial estimate was that 50% of surface plankton have been lost since 1970. That would be alarming enough; the only question is whether that estimate was indeed too optimistic..Mark Howarth, writing in the stalwart weekly from Dundee, Scotland, The Sunday Post, has a blockbuster scoop.The Global Oceanic Environmental Survey, led by Edinburgh University marine biologist Howard Dryden at the university Roslin Innovation Centre had estimated that the plankton in the oceans had been halved in the past 40 years, and that all of it could be gone by 2040.Dryden and GOES were off by twenty years.Plankton is a blanket term for the billions of tiny sea organisms living close to the surface of the oceans, which are eaten by krill, small crustaceans, which are in turn eaten by fish and whales. No plankton, little or no marine life.And while trees hog all the credit, plankton generate 70% of our oxygen.Howarth reports that the GOES team just sampled the ocean water surface along the French and Portuguese coasts before heading across the Atlantic to Colombia. They and volunteers gathered 500 data points.They expected to find five patches of plankton in every ~2.5 gallons (10 liters) of ocean water.They found an average of one.So in 1982 there would have been 10 patches of plankton in every 2.5 gallons of surface ocean water, and now there is one. That isn’t a 50% reduction.If Dryden and his team’s survey is borne out by the scientific community, that is a 90% reduction.It is like going to the zoo and finding nine in every ten of the animals there — the giraffes, the tigers, the reptiles — dead on the ground.You would wonder, what happened here? Were they exposed to poison gas? Were they given poison to drink?What is killing the plankton?First, you know those billions and billions of tons of carbon dioxide we put up into the atmosphere every year, and how we have been doing that for decades? That is a big part of the problem and will get bigger.Carbon dioxide dissolves into sea water, becoming bicarbonate ions and hydrogen ions. The accumulation of bicarbonate ions makes the ocean acidic, lowering the PH factor.Plankton don’t do well with an acidic environment. Imagine if you dumped hydrochloric acid into your fish tank. Although many of the plankton organisms offset extra acid when their shells dissolve, providing extra calcium and raising the PH, they seem likely to be overwhelmed in this regard, and it is anyway not a function they can perform if they are all dead.
Coastal glacier retreat linked to climate change -- More of the world's coastal glaciers are melting faster than ever, but exactly what's triggering the large-scale retreat has been difficult to pin down because of natural fluctuations in the glaciers' surroundings. Now, researchers at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG) and Georgia Tech have developed a methodology that they think cracks the code to why coastal glaciers are retreating, and in turn, how much can be attributed to human-caused climate change. Attributing the human role for coastal glaciers—which melt directly into the sea—could pave the way to better predictions about sea level rise. So far, scientists have tested the approach only in computer models using simplified glaciers. They found that even modest global warming caused most glaciers to melt, or retreat. The next step, the researchers said, is for scientists to simulate the coastal glaciers of a real ice sheet, like Greenland's, which holds enough ice to raise sea level by about 22 feet (7 meters). That will reveal whether they are retreating due to climate change and help predict when major ice loss might next occur. "The methodology we're proposing is a road map towards making confident statements about what the human role is [in glacial retreats]," said glaciologist John Christian, who is a postdoctoral researcher at both The University of Texas at Austin and Georgia Tech. "Those statements can then be communicated to the public and policymakers, and help in their decision making." Published in the journal The Cryosphere, the methodology is unique because it treats rapid glacier retreat as an individual probabilistic event, like a wildfire or tropical storm. For a large retreat to happen, the glacier must retreat past its "stability threshold," which is usually a steep rise in the underlying bedrock that helps slow its flow. The probability of that happening varies depending on local climate and ocean conditions that change with natural fluctuations and human-caused warming. Even small variations can cause large changes in a glacier's behavior, making them hard to predict and leading to cases where glaciers were found retreating right next to ones that weren't. That, said co-author and UTIG glaciologist Ginny Catania, is why the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report found there was still too much uncertainty about coastal glaciers to say whether their retreat is due to human-caused climate change or natural climate fluctuations. According to Catania, the study means they can now attribute mass coastal glacier retreat to climate change and not just natural variability.
Scientists discover world's longest underwater avalanche after rescue of lost data - Prompt action by scientists recovered sensors drifting across the Atlantic Ocean that held data on a seabed sediment avalanche that traveled for 1,100 km to ocean depths of 4,500 km. A study published today in Nature Communications shows that the data was recovered after anchors mooring these sensors to the seabed had been broken by these huge underwater flows. The recovered data will help predict hazards to seabed telecommunications cables, improving reliability and reducing future breakages, while also providing insight into how future climate or land-use changes may impact the deep-sea. Scientists worked with the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and National Oceanography Center (NOC) to recover the data. Funding for the research was provided by NERC. Rescue at sea Key research data on underwater avalanches of sediment (known as turbidity currents) were lost at sea when a colossal deep-sea avalanche surged through the Congo Canyon in January 2020. The deep underwater valley leads away from the mouth of the Congo River, off Africa's west coast. Five months earlier researchers had lined the length of the Congo Canyon with sensors designed to measure the velocity and behavior of deep-sea turbidity currents. Eleven of these sensors broke free from their moorings between 14-16 January 2020, dislodged by an avalanche of sediment traveling at up to 8 meters a second. The sensors are contained in orange floats scarcely larger than a football, and these floats and their sensors then drifted across the surface of the Atlantic Ocean, carrying their unique data with them. Peter Talling, Professor in Submarine Geohazards at Durham University and the study's lead investigator, says that "the odds of retrieving football-sized sensors were tiny, as they drifted in different directions, dragged by currents across hundreds of kilometers of ocean. Rescuing those buoys seemed entirely improbable." "But, thanks to swift and flexible action by NERC, the National Marine Facilities at the National Oceanography Center, French colleagues at IFREMER and senior colleagues in Hull and Durham Universities, together with several passing vessels, we achieved one of the most remarkable bits of field science in the ocean I'm ever likely to see."
Earth's crust has been 'dripping' beneath Andes Mountains for millions of years -Just like honey slowly dripping from a spoon, parts of the rocky outermost layer of Earth's shell are continuously sinking into the more fluid layer of the planet's mantle over the course of millions of years. Known as lithospheric dripping—named for the fragmenting of rocky material that makes up Earth's crust and upper mantle—the process results in significant deformations at the surface such as basins, folding of the crust and irregular elevations. Though the process is a relatively new concept in the decades-old field of plate tectonics, several examples of lithospheric drip around the world have been identified—the Central Anatolian Plateau in Turkey and the Great Basin in the western U.S., for two. Now, a team of researchers led by Earth scientists at the University of Toronto has confirmed that several regions in the central Andes Mountains in South America were formed the same way. And they've done so using materials available at any hardware store and art supplies outlet. "We have confirmed that a deformation on the surface of an area of the Andes Mountains has a large portion of the lithosphere below avalanched away," says Julia Andersen, a Ph.D. candidate in the department of Earth sciences at U of T and lead author of a study published in Communications Earth & Environment. "Owing to its high density, it dripped like cold syrup or honey deeper into the planetary interior and is likely responsible for two major tectonic events in the Central Andes—shifting the surface topography of the region by hundreds of kilometers and both crunching and stretching the surface crust itself. "Overall, the results help define a new class of plate tectonics and may have implications for other terrestrial planets that do not have Earth-like plate tectonics such as Mars and Venus."
Earthquake swarm beneath KamaĘ»ehuakanaloa (LĹŤĘ»ihi) seamount likely the result of magma movement, Hawai’i - The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has detected increased seismic activity beneath KamaĘ»ehuakanaloa (formerly known as LĹŤĘ»ihi) seamount, south of the Island of HawaiĘ»i, over the past few days. The activity is likely the result of magma movement beneath KamaĘ»ehuakanaloa seamount and currently shows no sign of leading to an eruption. The last eruption at this volcano took place in 1996 (VEI 0). Intermittent earthquake activity has been recorded in the vicinity of Kama‘ehuakanaloa since as early as 1952. The most energetic earthquake sequence occurred in July – August 1996, which included more than 4 000 earthquakes, with nearly 300 events larger than M3.0 and 95 events in the M4.0 to 4.9 range. More recently, a swarm of 100 earthquakes occurred on May 11, 2020, with 18 events in the M3.0 to 3.9 range. There are no working monitoring instruments on Kama‘ehuakanaloa volcano, whose peak is about 1 000 m (3 280 feet) below sea level. All real-time information about the volcano is derived from land-based seismometers on the Island of Hawai‘i. Increased seismic activity beneath KamaĘ»ehuakanaloa (LĹŤĘ»ihi) seamount began at approximately 12:00 UTC on July 16, 2022, when HVO detected seismic tremor marked by pulses of seismic energy every 15 – 20 seconds, which was still ongoing at the time of its latest update released at 00:53 UTC on July 18.1 Approximately 24 hours after this activity began, two dozen M1.8 – M3.0 earthquakes occurred from 11:30 UTC to 16:00 on July 17. “This seismic activity is likely the result of magma movement beneath KamaĘ»ehuakanaloa seamount and currently shows no sign of leading to an eruption,” HVO Scientist-in-Charge Ken Hon said. “Because of the great depth of the volcano within the ocean and style of Hawaiian eruptions, an eruption of KamaĘ»ehuakanaloa would pose no threat to the Island of HawaiĘ»i. Neither Mauna Loa nor KÄ«lauea volcanoes show any change in activity associated with this earthquake swarm.”
Great solar prominence releasing a CME captured in 4K - (video on Vimeo) On July 10, 2022, the Sun featured a gigantic solar prominence over the chromosphere, throwing a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. “Luckily I was checking the sun activity at the end of the day, as normally I don’t photograph the sun so late, specially for being low and close to the horizon,” astrophotographer Miguel Claro noted. “As soon as I realized that a huge prominence was visible and growing so fast and drastically, I quickly start shooting. Seeing the forecast was amazing around 0,71″ arc. but the sun was lower than ideal and the atmosphere had a fine layer of dust coming from Africa. The temperature was very high, around 38Âş at 18h00. So I made a huge effort of gathering as many images as possible.” The sequence was captured between 17:37 and 18:30 UTC on July 10 and shows the spectacular motion of the CME. The gradual change in contrast in the solar disc is related to the Sun getting lower and crossing the dust layer which scattered the light even more. The final result is a 4K high resolution solar movie comprising around 1 hour of images, captured from the Dark Sky® Alqueva region, Portugal.
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm watch in effect - (video) A G1-Minor geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for July 21, 22 and 23, 2022 as a result of slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) coupled with negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly active levels are anticipated on July 20 with a slow-moving CME that left the Sun on July 15 after an approximate 37-degree long, E/W oriented filament erupted around 13:08. While most of the ejecta was reabsorbed, a subsequent partial-halo CME was produced during the event, with a part of it directed toward Earth. Active geomagnetic field levels are expected to carry over into July 21 and 22, reinforced by a negative polarity CH HSS that arrives as early as July 21. As a result, a G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming is likely from July 21 to 23. Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours, with no M-class or greater flares. All of the numbered regions on the disk were stable or in decay. The activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) through July 22.
CME produced by long duration C5.6 solar flare expected to reach Earth early on July 23 - A long-duration C5.6 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3060 at 01:11 UTC on July 21, 2022, producing a faint full halo coronal mass ejection (CME).A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 063 km/s was detected at 01:21 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.In addition, a Type IV Radio Emission was also associated with the event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.The event generated a faint full halo CME which is estimated to reach our planet early on July 23, sparking minor to moderate geomagnetic storm. G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming is likely through July 23, with a CME produced on July 152 and a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences on July 21 and 22, as well as the anticipated arrival of the aforementioned CME on July 23.There is a chance for G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm levels being reached all three days due to the combined CME and CH HSS effects.Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through July 23.
How solar storms affect railway signals - A project investigating the effects of solar storms on railway signals, presented this week at the National Astronomy Meeting (NAM 2022) by Cameron Patterson, a PhD student at Lancaster University, shows how fluctuations in space weather are disrupting train signals and causing significant delays. In railways, electric currents caused to flow in the earth by solar activity can interfere with the normal operation of signals, turning green signals to red even when there is no train nearby. A team of researchers at the University of Lancaster have modeled the impacts of solar storms on two segments of the UK railway network: a South-North line from Preston to Lancaster and a West-East line from Glasgow to Edinburgh.1 They found that technical problems can occur as a result of solar storms with a range of strengths: from medium storms with electric field strengths of 2V/km to strong storms at 4V/km. In the past, values of higher than 7 V/km have been detected along railways in Sweden. Estimates of extreme solar storms have predicted events with strengths of up to 20 V/km. Interestingly, the results suggest that signaling failures can occur even with moderate storms. So, while these estimates are unsettling, there is still cause for concern without these extreme storms. “Most of us have at one point heard the dreaded words: ‘your train is delayed due to a signaling failure’, and while we usually connect these faults to rain, snow and leaves on the line, you may not have considered that the Sun can also cause railway signals to malfunction,” Patterson said. Describing the future of his work, Patterson says: “We are now working on looking at the case where trains are present on the line, and how strong a storm needs to be to turn a red signal back to green – a far more hazardous scenario potentially leading to crashes!”
NASA's Webb Telescope Suffers "Significant Uncorrectable Damage" After Micro-Meteoroid Hit - A new report sheds more color on a micrometeoroid strike that hit NASA's $10 billion James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) millions of miles away from Earth. NASA revealed a micrometeoroid caused "significant uncorrectable damage" to JWST's mirror segment known as C3, one of the 18 beryllium-gold tiles that make up the telescope's 6.5-meter wide primary reflector, in late May. "The mirrors and sunshield are expected to slowly degrade from micrometeoroid impacts; the detectors are expected to experience cumulative slow damage from charged particles; the sunshield and multilayer insulation will degrade from space weathering; the spacecraft was designed for a five-year mission (as is standard for NASA science missions)," the space agency said, adding, "at this point, it is not clear what will determine the duration of JWST's mission." NASA continued by saying," the largest source of uncertainty is long-term effects of micrometeoroid impacts that slowly degrade the primary mirror." Last month, we first reported the impact in "NASA's $10 Billion Space Telescope Hit By Micro-Meteoroid." The most recent update by the space agency provides clarity on the telescope's damage and how the spacecraft will degrade over time, which may reduce mission duration. Despite this, JWST's team published remarkable photos of the deepest views of the cosmos, a sight no one on Earth had ever seen before, last week at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
Supreme Court muzzles EPA on climate - Environmental lawyers say the Supreme Court sent a clear message in its landmark ruling in West Virginia v. EPA: If a federal agency wants to craft robust climate regulations, it better not crow about them.If EPA — or any other federal agency, the White House or even advocacy groups — touts a regulation’s climate significance, lawyers said, that rule could fall victim to the so-called major questions doctrine, which the six-justice conservative majority applied last month in West Virginia to strike down the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan (Greenwire, June 30).The ruling is littered with references to congressional testimony, press releases from environmental groups and White House fact sheets to illustrate that the plan — which was finalized in 2015 but never officially took effect — was a regulation of “vast economic and political significance” subject to scrutiny under major questions, said lawyers during a panel discussion last week hosted by the Environmental Law Institute.“All of that noise about this being the biggest thing we’ve ever done, the most monumental — that should be tamped down if an agency wants to avoid major questions. That’s an obvious point,” said Kevin Poloncarz, a partner at the firm Covington & Burling LLP who represented power companies defending EPA authority in West Virginia.He later added: “It is so funny because we thought these were all about lawyerly arguments, and to some extent, I think it’s more about PR because we need to make sure that the politicals don’t get out there in front of the lawyers.” The practical implication of the ruling, therefore, could be that agency leaders curb a typical part of their work: explaining the import of their actions to the public. It also illustrates the far-reaching implications of the still-evolving major questions doctrine embraced by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority, which suggests Congress must spell out agencies’ authority when directing them to craft consequential regulations.
U.S. plan to avoid extreme climate change is running out of time - The Washington Post - In 101 months, the United States will have achieved President Biden’s most important climate promise — or it will have fallen short. Right now it is seriously falling short, and for each month that passes, it becomes harder to succeed until at some point — perhaps very soon — it will become virtually impossible. That’s true for the United States, and also true for the planet, as nearly 200 nations strive to tackle climate change with a fast-dwindling timeline for doing so. This is crucial context for the news late last week that Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), after months of negotiations with his fellow Democrats, is balking at new climate policies. The stated reason for Manchin’s hesitation is raging inflation, a serious concern. But there is always a reason to delay action, and time is not forgiving when it comes to the warming climate. At the center of the Biden administration’s climate policy is a promise, made in 2021, to slash U.S. emissions by 50 to 52 percent by the end of 2030 — 101 months from this August — against what they were in 2005. Achieving this target would require a significant reshuffling of the American economy — millions of new electric cars on the road, transformations of key industries to rely more on renewable energy, and probably millions of jobs focused on making this happen. The climate legislation making its way through the Senate would have sped that transition along through enhanced tax credits for renewable energy and electric vehicles, among other energy-related incentives and provisions. Moving fast is necessary to maintain consistency with 2015’s Paris climate agreement, in which nations agreed to take significant measures to avoid the levels of global warming associated with severe climate impact. Scientists broadly agree that emissions need to be cut approximately in half by 2030 to avoid those outcomes. The targets remain. But after Manchin’s move, the legislation to achieve it seems to have been tabled indefinitely. “The current official U.S. targets are ambitious,” said John Sterman, an energy policy expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “They are also necessary to create a prosperous, healthy climate. And the policies that the administration had proposed — transportation, buildings, et cetera — had the potential to get us there.” “But with Senator Manchin’s position … we’re not going to be able to do that,” Sterman said. In many ways, in fact, thinking we have until 2030 to cut emissions to the target dramatically overstates how much time there actually is. As more time elapses, the amount of emissions that need to be cut grows greater in the remaining months. It is like a ship taking on water — if you wait to start bailing, you have to bail ever faster, and if you wait long enough, at some point you no longer have a chance to reach shore. The Biden goal was already a major reach. So far, the United States has only shaved emissions by a sliver of what the administration intends. Emissions in 2005 were 6.6 billion tons of greenhouse gases, and emissions in 2019 and 2020 were 5.8 and 5.2 billion tons, respectively, according to official national figures.
Biden admin seeks dismissal of climate metric challenge - The Department of Justice argues that Republican-led states have no standing to challenge the administration's use of the social cost of carbon. The agency's filing with the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals also cites last month's Supreme Court climate ruling to assert that the administration has executive power to direct agencies. The Biden administration asked a federal appeals court yesterday to toss out a lower court ruling that temporarily prevented the government from using a metric to calculate the societal harms of greenhouse gas emissions.That metric — known as the social cost of carbon — helps federal agencies justify more stringent environmental regulations. It is one of several climate actions that have come under fire from Republican attorneys general. It is back in use after the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily reversed the lower court's injunction in March (Climatewire, March 17).Yesterday's filing asks the 5th Circuit to dismiss the case. In it, attorneys with the Department of Justice argue that the Republican-led states that filed the lawsuit — and argued for the injunction — lack both standing and claims with merit.“Plaintiffs cannot establish standing merely based on the fact that federal agencies use the interim estimates in some unspecified manner,” wrote Brian Boynton, the principal deputy assistant attorney general. “Rather, plaintiffs must establish that agencies are relying on the interim estimates as the basis for a final agency action that in turn causes a judicially cognizable injury to plaintiffs’ concrete interests.”
Carbon captured and stored since 1996 is significant but overestimated by up to 30% - Although a significant amount of carbon has been caught and stored so far, governments should curb overestimation. This is according to a new report from Imperial College London published today in Environmental Science & Technology Letters. The researchers compared estimations of stored carbon with official reports, and found that the reports lead to overestimates of actual carbon stored by 19 to 30 percent. They calculated 197 million metric tons of carbon were captured and stored between 1996 and 2020, which represents a significant achievement in climate change mitigation. However, the researchers say the lack of consistent reporting frameworks mean current reported rates of carbon capture are overestimated, giving an inaccurate picture of the technology's contribution to fighting climate change. This, the researchers say, disempowers us in meeting climate mitigation strategies like the Paris Agreement and risks hiding issues that could otherwise be easily solved, such as inefficiencies in facility technology and transport. Lead author Yuting Zhang, Ph.D. candidate at the Department of Earth Science and Engineering, says that "carbon capture and storage (CCS) is rightly a cornerstone of climate change mitigation, but without a centralized reporting framework we approach climate change on the back foot when we need to be more proactively tackling the issue with robust and accurate reporting." "Policymakers should embrace a centralized reporting database that includes rates of carbon capture, transport, and storage, including quality assurance measures like independent auditing." CCS is a worldwide initiative to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by capturing the greenhouse gas at its source and storing it underground. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that CCS is key to reaching the goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century to mitigate climate change. At present, the most centralized and up-to-date information on capture rates comes from the annual reports and databases of thinktanks—but these report CCS activity as facility capacity rather than actual carbon stored. As of 2021, the global capture capacity was estimated at 40 million metric tons per year across 26 operational CCS facilities.
Trailblazer Pipeline's owners want to switch it from natural gas to CO2 -- The owners of the 40-year-old Trailblazer Pipeline through southern Nebraska are seeking to abandon most of it for natural gas shipments and use it to move carbon dioxide instead. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is taking public comments on the joint request by Trailblazer Pipeline Co. LLC and its sister firm, Rockies Express Pipeline LLC. Both Colorado firms are subsidiaries of Tallgrass Energy, which wants to use Trailblazer to ship carbon dioxide originating in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado to a carbon sequestration site in either Nebraska or Wyoming. A FERC public notice says the agency is preparing a review of the Trailblazer conversion’s possible environmental effects. Comments must arrive at FERC’s Washington, D.C., office by 5 p.m. ET on Aug. 10. The 436-mile-long Trailblazer, completed in November 1982, runs along the border between Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle. It then drops into Colorado’s Sedgwick County and re-enters Nebraska near Venango. The pipeline runs through Perkins and southern Lincoln counties, passing near Wallace and Wellfleet. It continues to near the border of Dawson and Frontier counties and then runs east-southeast to its end near Beatrice. About 392 miles of Trailblazer — all but the pipeline’s eastern end — would no longer be used to ship natural gas, according to a story on the S&P Global Commodity Insights website. Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), which parallels Trailblazer through the Panhandle and west central Nebraska, would continue to carry natural gas. The two Tallgrass Energy subsidiaries filed the Trailblazer abandonment request with FERC on May 27, S&P Global Commodity Insights said. Trailblazer customers would continue to be served through a lease of REX’s pipeline capacity. REX would build two new laterals totaling 41 miles of pipe to enable the service. REX, a 1,679-mile-long high-pressure gas pipeline completed in November 2009, runs from the Colorado Rockies to eastern Ohio.
Opposite CO2 actions in 2 SD counties — Two South Dakota counties took opposite actions related to proposed carbon dioxide pipelines this month.Brown County passed on July 19 a moratorium on hazardous materials pipelines in the county which will allow it to determine if existing ordinances are adequate to cover hazardous materials including CO2 pipelines, said county commissioner board chairman Duane Sutton. The moratorium is in place for a year or sooner, if the county passes a new pipeline ordinance or determines existing ordinances cover them, Sutton saidIn a July 11 letter to the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission, the Hand County Commissioners said it had abandoned “Hand County’s Moratorium” on hazardous materials pipelines.” A copy of the Hand County letter is posted on the PUC website.Summit Carbon Solutions has proposed a CO2 pipeline that will gather CO2 at participating ethanol plants and sites and it will be transported through several states including South Dakota for burial in North Dakota. It has applied for a permit from the PUC. The PUC granted Summit Carbon an indefinite extension of the required one year for the PUC to act on the permit application.“Over the last few weeks, it seems like every week we have concerned county residents talking to (us) or businesses reasonably close to the (proposed Summit Carbon) pipeline,” Sutton said. “People are concerned about the safety if there is an accident. They are concerned about land values if an easement is across the land, how will that effect the value of the property. But safety is the big concern.”The July 11 Hand County letter cites the July 5 county board meeting in which during an open forum on the proposed Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline, the board passed resolutions to abandon a moratorium and to request from the PUC removed as intervenor in the CO2 pipeline process.The minutes from the July 5 meeting had not yet been posted on the county website as of July 20.The July 11 letter said “The commission wanted it made note of the minutes that these two actions of the board do not translate into support of the project nor resistance to the project. It was states that the role of the intervenor is causing more cost than benefit.”An intervenor or party status role, means that the party has the ability to see all documents and information the PUC sees.Brown County has party status. “Any information the PUC gets, we get,” Sutton said. That allows the county to closely follow the process, Sutton said. A party status holder or intervenor can also submit evidence or information during the PUC process.
Farmer protests spread across the globe --A WAVE of agricultural protest has swept Europe and the wider world, as a host of issues conspire to pit farmers against national politics. Farmer-led protests in Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland have sprung up in the wake of action by Dutch farmers, who were first to take to the streets to complain about the impact of new emissions rules. German farmers blockaded roads on the border with the Netherlands and gathered in large numbers to protest near the city of Heerenburg. Italian farmers also held tractor protests in rural areas and threatened to take the protests to the streets of Rome. Polish farmers took over the streets of Warsaw complaining against cheap imports, and the high interest rates which have destabilised their businesses and threatened their livelihoods. The heat of rising inflation has also reached Spain, where farmers blocked highways in the southern region of Andalusia to protest against high fuel prices and the rising costs of essential products. The initial anger from Dutch farmers arose from fears that they would have to downscale or stop their business to meet reduction targets for the nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions produced by their livestock. While the Dutch government has announced large investments in farm housing and technology, they will also have the option to force farmers to sell their land in case enough volunteers for the technology shift are not found. Some estimates show that Dutch plan forcing 30% of its farms out of business by 2030. As a result, thousands of Dutch farmers blocked ports, airports, and roads, as well as supermarket distribution centres, with their tractors, and torched straw bales in the streets and dumped manure at government buildings. The supermarkets are running out of food as the protests continue to intensify. Other sectors have also started to join in the protests, with fishermen blocking ports and several ships honking their horns to express their frustration over rising inflation.
Destroying The Planet To Save Ukraine? - Saving Ukraine from Russia has become more important to Western leaders than saving the planet from climate change, more important than keeping their populations from freezing in the dark, more important than the viability of Western industries, and more important even than avoiding the risk of an all-out nuclear war between the West and Russia.An early indication of the West’s loss of all perspective where Russia is concerned - call it Russia Derangement Syndrome - occurred in the United States after Donald Trump was elected president. Large swathes of the public, including virtually all Democrats and the legacy media, embraced a fantasy known as Russian Collusion, which asserted that Russia had colluded with the Trump campaign to install him as president.The fantasy persisted for three years until 2019 when Russia Collusion was confirmed to be a hoax perpetrated by Trump’s rival for the 2016 presidency, Hillary Clinton. Earlier this year, after Russia invaded Ukraine over a territorial dispute, Russia Derangement Syndrome went into overdrive. An infuriated West sanctioned Russian goods and services helter-skelter without thinking through the consequences, chiefly those involving energy. Russia represents continental Europe’s chief energy source and is the main reason Europeans can keep the lights on.Only after the Europeans decided to punish Russia, and only after Russia announced cuts to gas flows—temporarily, it said—on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline of 60 percent, did it dawn on Europeans that Russia could retaliate this coming winter through punitively-timed energy curtailments, putting Europe at Russia’s mercy. In Germany, for example, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration did its sums to discover that under all scenarios, Germany lacked the reserves needed to last the winter. The European Union, now in a panic, is scrambling to acquire fossil fuels from any sources in a desperate attempt to stockpile energy prior to winter. Germany is returning to coal, as are Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands. The United Kingdom is also turning to coal and reversing its ban on fracking and on North Sea oil production. The EU is endorsing Norway’s latest exploitation of the North Sea and is open to new contracts for long-term commitments of natural gas. The United States is exporting record amounts of gas, so much so that Europe now receives more high-priced liquefied natural gas from U.S. tankers than inexpensive natural gas from Russian pipelines. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europeans have advanced more than 20 liquefied natural gas import projects.
Fed up with net-zero climate goals, activists call for 'real zero' - - As alarm at the United Nations over climate change has grown dire in recent years, a slew of corporations have announced net-zero carbon emissions goals. More than 300 major companies, including Amazon, Procter & Gamble, HP and Salesforce, have now signed onto a pledge to achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. Net-zero pledges from countries cover about 70% of global gross domestic product and carbon emissions, the International Energy Agency said in a report last May. But net zero -- which calls for a neutral carbon impact through the removal of the same amount of emissions from the atmosphere that an entity releases -- has drawn backlash from activists and some experts. The approach allows companies to continue releasing significant amounts of carbon while pursuing emissions offsets, which are difficult to verify and sometimes rely on technology that has yet to be developed, environmental advocates told ABC News. Many advocates have called for companies to instead pursue a goal of "real-zero" emissions, which calls for the outright elimination of carbon emissions. The more ambitious goal would ensure that companies dramatically reduce carbon emissions, and would remove the challenge of developing and vetting carbon offsets, advocates told ABC News. But the paradigm shift toward real-zero emissions goals remains in its infancy and could bring some economic disruption, dramatically altering or eliminating industries that rely on fossil fuels, such as oil and gas, the advocates said."Companies use the mantra net zero as a fig leaf for continuing whatever they're doing," David Klein, a mathematics professor at California State University Northridge, where he participates in the Climate Science Program, told ABC News. "Think of it as a pot of water being heated by a flame underneath it," he added. "As long as that flame is on, as long as energy goes into the system, the temperature will continue to increase. Instead of net zero, we need to decrease the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere by radically decreasing emissions."
USPS will buy four times more electric mail trucks than first announced - The Washington Post - The U.S. Postal Service pledged Wednesday to electrify at least 40 percent of its new delivery fleet, an increase that climate activists hailed as a major step toward reducing the government’s environmental footprint. The Postal Service had been set to purchase as many as 165,000 vehicles from Oshkosh Defense, of which 10 percent would have been electric under the original procurement plan. Now it will acquire 50,000 trucks from Oshkosh, half of which will be EVs. It will also buy another 34,500 commercially available vehicles, with sufficient electric models to make 4 in 10 trucks in its delivery fleet zero-emission vehicles. The announcement comes after 16 states, the District of Columbia, and four of the nation’s top environmental groups sued the mail agency in the spring to prevent the original purchase plan, or compel it to buy more electric trucks. Activists at a minimum want the Postal Service’s fleet to consist of at least 75 percent EVs, though the agency’s Office of Inspector General found that 95 percent of delivery routes are suitable for electrification. The mail agency’s combined purchase of 84,500 trucks — which begin hitting the streets in late 2023 — will go a long way toward meeting President Biden’s goal for the entire government fleet to be EV-powered by 2035. The Postal Service’s more than 217,000 vehicles make up the largest share of federal civilian vehicles.
EPA slow-walking Calif. zero-emission bus regs, lawsuit says - Almost four years after California regulators sought to steer public transit bus fleets to zero-emission models, EPA is unlawfully dragging its feet on incorporating those rules into the state's federally enforceable clean air plan, an advocacy group alleges in a newly filed lawsuit. After the California Air Resources Board adopted the Innovative Clean Transit regulations in late 2018, the state submitted them to EPA for inclusion in the plan in early 2020, according to the suit, brought yesterday in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California by the Center for Community Action and Environmental Justice. But while EPA was supposed to approve or disapprove that step by last August, it has yet to do so, the suit says. The center is based in Riverside County, a part of Southern California that's home to some of the nation's worst soot and smog pollution. The suit asks a federal judge to set for a deadline for addressing the regulations; doing so, it says, would compel agency action "that Congress required as an integral part of the regulatory scheme for improving air quality in areas violating the National Ambient Air Quality Standards." ...
Big Things Are Happening in the Lithium Triangle -As the global race for “white gold” intensifies, the so-called “Lithium Triangle” in South America is taking on increasing importance in the global economy.Despite a recent correction, the price of lithium is still through the roof, as demand for battery cells far outpaces supply. Spot prices for battery-grade lithium in China — where three quarters of all battery-making capacity is located — have surged more than 600% so far this year, from about $10,000 per metric tonne in January to $62,000 in June, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Citi Group has forecast that prices will continue to rise as a “structural shortage” of the metal persists, meaning there isn’t enough capacity in the industry to satisfy demand.The International Energy Agency projects the value of global lithium sales could grow 20-fold between 2020 and 2030, and that is putting huge pressures on the price of many electronic goods, including electric vehicles. Lithium is a critical component of the green energy transition plans of countries like China, the EU and the US. Also known as “the new oil” or “white gold,” the metal is used to make the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles (EVs), smartphones, and wearables.The global race is now on to secure supplies of the white metal, which for the moment China is winning handily. The Asian giant is already the number one refiner of processed lithium and the number one maker of lithium batteries, according to energy consultancy BloombergNEF.“It refines 60% of the world’s lithium, controls 77% of global battery cell capacity and 60% of the world’s battery component manufacturing,” notes a recent report by Gavekal Research. “Of 200 battery mega-factories in the pipeline to 2030, 148 are in China.”China has also been moving into lithium mining in a big way. Despite holding only 5.1 tonnes, or 7 percent, of the world’s proven lithium reserves, China is now the fourth-largest producer. It also boasts the world’s largest lithium miner, Ganfeng Lithium Co, which owns the rights to the world’s largest lithium deposit, in Sonora, Mexico. Gavekal counted six completed or pending deals between Chinese companies and developers of lithium projects in South America, the region of the world with the largest lithium reserves.
Volkswagen-backed Northvolt to develop wood-based batteries for EVs - Northvolt will partner with Stora Enso to develop batteries that incorporate components produced using wood sourced from forests in the Nordic region.A joint development agreement between the firms will see them work together on the production of a battery containing an anode made from something called lignin-based hard carbon. An anode is a crucial part of a battery, alongside the cathode and electrolyte.In a statement Friday, electric vehicle battery maker Northvolt and Stora Enso — which specializes in packaging and paper products, among other things — described lignin as a "plant-derived polymer found in the cell walls of dry-land plants." According to the companies, trees are made up of 20% to 30% lignin, which functions as a binder."The aim is to develop the world's first industrialized battery featuring [an] anode sourced entirely from European raw materials," the companies said.Breaking the plans down, Stora Enso will supply Lignode, which is its lignin-based anode material. Northvolt will focus on cell design, the development of production processes and technology scale-up. The companies said the Lignode would come from "sustainably managed forests." Stora Enso says it's "one of the largest private forest owners in the world."
'They need to get real': Airlines slammed for betting on alternative fuels to reduce emissions— Airline executives at Britain's Farnborough International Airshow are betting on the use of so-called sustainable aviation fuels to reduce their climate impact, saying the technology is already available and can eventually be scaled up to help the industry reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Campaigners are urging them to "get real," however, dismissing the plans as "completely unrealistic" on current growth pathways. Instead, demand management measures are seen as the most effective way for the aviation industry to reduce its near-term climate impact. That comes as leaders in the aerospace and defense industry gather in extreme heat at the Farnborough International Airshow, the U.K.'s first major air show since the beginning of the Covid pandemic. The five-day trade exhibition, which began on Monday, has seen thousands of attendees gather in southern England to discuss the future of aviation. Compared with other sectors, aviation is a relatively small contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is recognized as one of the fastest-growing — and the number of flights is expected to grow at an alarming rate over the coming decades. If aviation is to align itself with the landmark Paris climate accord and curb global heating, the industry will need to move away from fossil fuels completely in the long term. One of the ways that the sector is seeking to replace conventional fossil jet fuel is by exploring the use of sustainable aviation fuels, or SAF. Chris Raymond, chief sustainability officer at Boeing, believes SAF will be a "necessary component" in helping the industry get to net-zero emissions by the middle of the century. "It's not a bridge," Raymond said at a press briefing on Monday. "SAF is required. It's SAF and whatever else we can do."
Utility executives reveal 'yawning gap' in climate action - A new survey of U.S. utility leaders found that nearly 9 in 10 said reducing greenhouse gas emissions from power plants was a high or moderate priority, while only 38 percent of their companies were executing a strategy to do anything about it. The results came from a survey of 190 executives that was released by ICF International Inc., a Fairfax, Va.-based consulting firm that advises utilities on managing clean energy goals, extreme weather threats and energy equity challenges. The “yawning gap” between climate concerns and actions “indicates leaders know they need to do ‘something,’ but either don’t know what to do or can’t implement a strategy due to lack of capital or regulatory support,” the ICF survey report said. The executives and utilities were not named. Few of the utilities have marshaled “the information, analysis, support, and resources” to face the challenges, ICF said. The survey was conducted before last month’s Supreme Court ruling in West Virginia v. EPA and Sen. Joe Manchin’s statements last week in opposition to a climate bill, but it sheds light on some of the challenges utilities are facing in a transition away from fossil fuels. The stalemate at the federal level has put renewed scrutiny on what utilities, states and agencies are doing to cut greenhouse gases. Half of the leaders surveyed came from investor-owned utilities. Some 54 percent of total respondents were associated with electric-only companies, while 46 percent were tied to power and gas companies or gas-only operations. In addition to the 38 percent of utilities with active plans to tackle decarbonization, 32 percent of executives said their organizations were currently planning a strategy, and 29 percent said they expected to produce a strategy in the next five years. Asked about potential barriers that could keep their organizations from hitting clean energy goals, about half said a lack of capital, and a similar percentage listed concerns that regulators would not permit rate increases that would cover the investments. Other hurdles included access to necessary technologies, cited by 42 percent of respondents.
California landfills are filling up with toxic solar panels - Los Angeles Times - California has been a pioneer in pushing for rooftop solar power, building up the largest solar market in the U.S. More than 20 years and 1.3 million rooftops later, the bill is coming due. Beginning in 2006, the state, focused on how to incentivize people to take up solar power, showered subsidies on homeowners who installed photovoltaic panels but had no comprehensive plan to dispose of them. Now, panels purchased under those programs are nearing the end of their typical 25-to-30-year life cycle. Many are already winding up in landfills, where in some cases, they could potentially contaminate groundwater with toxic heavy metals such as lead, selenium and cadmium. Sam Vanderhoof, a solar industry expert and chief executive of Recycle PV Solar, says that only 1 in 10 panels are actually recycled, according to estimates drawn from International Renewable Energy Agency data on decommissioned panels and from industry leaders. The looming challenge over how to handle truckloads of waste, some of it contaminated, illustrates how cutting-edge environmental policy can create unforeseen problems down the road. “The industry is supposed to be green,” Vanderhoof said. “But in reality, it’s all about the money.” California came early to solar power. Small governmental rebates did little to bring down the price of solar panels or to encourage their adoption until 2006, when the California Public Utilities Commission formed the California Solar Initiative. That granted $3.3 billion in subsidies for installing solar panels on rooftops. The measure exceeded its goals, bringing down the price of solar panels and boosting the share of the state’s electricity produced by the sun. Because of that and other measures, such as requirements that utilities buy a portion of their electricity from renewable sources, solar power now accounts for 15% of the state’s power. But as California barreled ahead on its renewable-energy program, focusing on rebates and — more recently — a proposed solar tax, questions about how to handle the waste that would accrue years later were never fully addressed. Now, both regulators and panel manufacturers are realizing that they don’t have the capacity to handle what comes next. “This trash is probably going to arrive sooner than we expected and it is going to be a huge amount of waste,” said Serasu Duran, an assistant professor at the University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business in Canada. “But while all the focus has been on building this renewable capacity, not much consideration has been put on the end of life of these technologies.”
Biden's offshore wind directive doesn’t end uncertainty in Southeast - President Joe Biden moved to remove hurdles to offshore wind development in the southern Atlantic on Wednesday, saying it was among many executive actions he was taking to combat the climate crisis. “We’re going to make sure the ocean is open for the clean energy of our future,” said Biden, speaking at a site poised to become the first offshore wind manufacturing hub in Massachusetts, “and [do] everything we can do to give a green light to wind power on the Atlantic coast.” But it wasn’t clear how Biden’s directive to the Secretary of the Interior to “advance clean energy development” in the federal waters of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas would evade a Trump-era ban on offshore wind in the region, and most clean energy advocates said Congress still needs to step in. “Responsible offshore wind power is key to protecting climate-vulnerable birds and communities. The administration’s plan is a welcome boost for the industry,” said Greg Andeck, director of strategy and government relations for Audubon North Carolina. “Ultimately, we’ll also need Congressional action to permanently remove the ban on new offshore wind development.” The stakes are especially high in North Carolina, where offshore wind’s potential to cut climate pollution and create jobs is vast but little realized, with just two projects under development. One, called Wilmington East, was leased days before the 10-year ban took effect on July 1. Issued in the late stages of the 2020 election campaign, the moratorium on offshore lease sales was aimed at oil and gas — an effort to win over voters in states like Florida and North Carolina that largely oppose drilling. Though it wasn’t specified in the order, the Trump administration later confirmed it included wind. Early in Biden’s presidency, advocates and wind proponents in Congress settled on legislation, rather than a new executive order, to reverse the Trump move. A law would be more permanent, the reasoning went, and it wasn’t clear a presidential act would stand up to court challenges: A federal judge ruled in 2019 that Trump couldn’t simply reverse an Obama drilling ban with a pen stroke. “The only sure-fire way to avoid intensive litigation is to pass legislation,”
Cryptomining Capacity in U.S. Rivals Energy Use of Houston, Findings Show - Seven of the largest Bitcoin mining companies in the United States are set up to use nearly as much electricity as all the homes in Houston, according to data disclosed Friday as part of an investigation by congressional Democrats who say miners should be required to report their energy use.The United States has seen an influx of cryptocurrency miners, who use powerful, energy-intensive computers to create and track the virtual currencies, after China cracked down on the practice last year. Democrats led by Senator Elizabeth Warren are also calling for the companies to report their emissions of carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that is the main driver of climate change.“This limited data alone reveals that cryptominers are large energy users that account for a significant — and rapidly growing — amount of carbon emissions,” Senator Warren and five other members of Congress wrote in a letter to the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy. “But little is known about the full scope of cryptomining activity,” they wrote.Research has shown that a surge in cryptomining is also significantly raising energy costs for local residents and small businesses, and has added to the strain on the power grid in states like Texas, the letter noted.Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have grown exponentially since they were introduced more than a decade ago, and in recent years, so have concerns over cryptomining, the process of creating a virtual coin. That process, a complex guessing game using powerful and power-hungry computers, is highly energy intensive. Worldwide, Bitcoin mining uses more electricity than many countries.Earlier this year, a group of congressional Democrats launched an investigation into energy use at the country’s largest cryptomining companies. They asked seven cryptomining companies for data on their operations, and the group’s findings, issued Friday, are based on the companies’ responses. That data showed that the seven companies alone had set up to tap as much as 1,045 megawatts of power, or enough electricity to power all the residences in a city the size of Houston, the nation’s fourth-largest city with 2.3 million residents. The companies also said that they plan to expand their capacity at an eye-popping rate. One of the largest cryptomining companies in the United States, Marathon Digital Holdings, told the probe that it operated almost 33,000 highly specialized, power-intensive computers, known as “mining rigs,” as of February, up from just over 2,000 at the start of 2021. By early next year, it intends to get that number up to 199,000 rigs, an almost hundredfold increase in two years, it said. The company currently operates a cryptomining center powered by the Hardin Generating Station in Montana, which generates electricity by burning coal, the dirtiest fuel. But in April, Marathon announced that it would be moving those operations to “new locations with more sustainable sources of power” and that the company was moving toward achieving carbon neutrality. It did not provide further details.
Can the fragile Texas power grid handle a cryptomining gold rush? --Record-breaking heat across Texas has pushed its fragile power grid to the brink. But extreme temperatures are doing something else in the famously pro-business state: stirring opposition to energy-guzzling crypto miners who’ve flocked there seeking low-cost energy and a deregulatory stance.Ten industrial-scale crypto miners now draw from the Texas power grid, according to its overseer, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. ERCOT, as it is known, declined to say how much power the miners currently consume, but Trudi Webster, a spokesperson for the council, said miners’ consumption is anticipated to be 18 gigawatts in coming years. Current grid capacity is around 80 gigawatts, but it too is expected to grow.Bitcoin miners deploy thousands of high-powered computers to solve complex mathematical equations; when they succeed, the miners earn a bitcoin. Annual electricity use attributed to bitcoin mining roughly equals the consumption of Belgium, according to the University of Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index. Since China shut down cryptomining, the U.S. in general, and Texas in particular, have become venues of choice for the industry. Lee Bratcher, founder of the Texas Blockchain Council, a lobbying group, estimated that there are now 40 cryptomining companies operating in the state, including the 10 large ones, double the number just two years ago.The energy crypto miners use puts “an almost unprecedented burden” on the Texas grid, according to Ben Hertz-Shargel, global head of Grid Edge, a unit of Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm. Mining “pushes the system closer to dangerous system peaks at all times,” he told NBC News. “It is completely inessential and consuming physical resources, time and money that should be going to decarbonize and strengthen the grid.”The Texas grid has come under pressure before. During winter storm Uri in February 2021, for example, demand for power exceeded supply; over 200 people died, most from hypothermia. Unlike other electricity systems, the Texas grid does not connect to other states’ grids; that means it cannot receive power from other areas in emergencies.Because of their high demand for electricity, crypto miners raise costs for other consumers of power, Hertz-Shargel said. And, on the Texas grid, miners can get paid for powering down during peak demand periods, like the one that recently hit the state. Miners and other industrial customers with these types of arrangements receive revenues for not using electricity; the costs of those revenues are passed on to other electricity customers.Texas electricity rates are lower than many other states', a big lure for crypto miners. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Texas customers paid on average 8.36 cents per kilowatt hour in 2020 versus the nationwide average of 10.59 cents. Prices have gone up significantly in recent months everywhere.But the Texas grid maintains relatively few excess reserves, experts say. Earlier this month, amid the heat wave, ERCOT asked customers to restrict usage, and the miners powered down. ERCOT said in a news release that it issues such notifications “when projected reserves may fall below 2300 MW [megawatts] for 30 minutes or more.”ERCOT, a nonprofit corporation that answers to the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the state legislature, has changed its operations since Uri, trying to make the unregulated Texas grid more reliable. But the bitcoin miners drawn to the state by low power costs and deregulation have added significant demand for power.
Global Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Surges To Record High - Global coal-fired electricity generators are producing more power than ever before in response to booming electricity demand after the pandemic and the surging price of gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The world’s coal-fired generators produced a record 10,244 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2021 surpassing the previous record of 10,098 TWh set in 2018 (“Statistical review of world energy”, BP, July 2022). Coal-fuelled generation is on course to set an even higher record in 2022 as generators in Europe and Asia minimise the use of expensive gas following Russia’s invasion and U.S. and EU sanctions imposed in response. By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have been replaced by newer and more efficient ones needing less fuel per kilowatt. Global coal mine production was 8,173 million tonnes in 2021 compared with 8,180-8,256 million per year between 2012 and 2014. But mine production is also likely to set a new record this year as the surging demand for coal-fuelled generation overtakes efficiency improvements. Coal’s resurgence has confounded U.S. and EU policymakers who expected it to diminish as part of their plan for net zero emissions. Rapid recovery after the pandemic has turbocharged these trends, boosting electricity demand and the dependence on coal-fired generation, and lifting coal consumption to a record high. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting reduction gas exports has stimulated demand even further as generators try to minimise consumption of expensive gas and countries try to indigenise their energy supplies. In Europe, governments are encouraging coal-burning generators to remain in service for longer rather than closing in case gas flows from Russia cease in winter 2022/23. Responding to shortages and security concerns, China and India are encouraging domestic miners to raise output to record levels to ensure adequate fuel stocks and cut their reliance on expensive imported coal and gas. China’s coal production climbed to a record 2,192 million tonnes between January and June compared with 1,949 million in the same period a year earlier and 1,758 million before the pandemic in 2019. India’s production climbed to a record 393 million tonnes between January and May compared with 349 million a year ago. Despite the rapid growth in domestic coal production in China and India, there is still a worldwide shortage of fuel, which has sent coal prices to their highest level in real terms for more than 50 years. U.S. and EU sanctions have intensified upward pressure on prices by re-routing Russian coal to Asia and coal from Australia and Indonesia to Europe, resulting in longer and more expensive voyages. Higher gas prices in Europe are pulling coal prices up in their wake as coal-fired generators scramble to secure fuel in order to be able to run their units for as many hours as possible. Front-month futures prices for gas delivered in Northwest Europe have climbed to €157 per megawatt-hour from €41 at the same point in 2021 while coal prices have risen to €53 from €16. If the northern hemisphere winter of 2022/23 is colder than normal, shortages of coal, gas and electricity are likely to become severe and are likely to force some form of energy rationing or allocation. The global coal shortage is part of a wider shortage of energy evident across the markets for crude, diesel, gas and electricity. In each case, the shortage stems from the strong cyclical rebound from the pandemic and has been intensified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions imposed as a result.
Coal’s having a moment. It won’t last- Long-shuttered coal-fired power plants are awakening to a new reality in Europe, where they are once again considered a vital source of electricity. But the boost is temporary. Coal is one of the few short-term options available in Europe, which is scrambling to secure its energy supply as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has upended the market. Germany, Europe's largest economy, has authorized the reactivation of 16 dormant coal- and oil-fired power plants. The Netherlands has amended its laws to allow coal plants to run at full capacity through 2023, and France and Austria are also reopening coal-fired units. While the return to coal has alarmed climate hawks, a new study found that short-term reliance on coal as an emergency measure won't topple global goals for slashing heat-trapping pollution. Europe is also teeing up legislation that would compensate for the increase by cutting emissions 55 percent by 2030 from 1990 levels. Leaving steeper cuts for later years increases the risk they won't be realized, though, and some European leaders have lamented even a brief return to coal. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the move regrettable. But the real threat to climate action is Europe's new affection for natural gas. Europe is looking to shore up its gas reserves in time for winter, amid fears that its supply from Russia will be further curtailed. That could spur major new funding for gas-fired power plants, particularly after a recent vote by European lawmakers to label gas as "sustainable." Building out enduring natural gas infrastructure could lock in planet-warming emissions for years to come, threatening global climate targets. Already, the EU inked a deal with Azerbaijan to double natural gas imports by 2027. Europe's struggle to move away from fossil fuels comes as the region is experiencing record-breaking temperatures and vicious wildfires, which swept through Western Europe and the United Kingdom this weekend. Hundreds of people have already died in what may be one of the region's most extreme heat waves on record. Unless the world dramatically reduces its carbon emissions, such events will only become more frequent, scientists warn.
Manchin bill would create agency to manage nuclear waste - Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin wants to form a new, independent agency that would operate as a permanent home for the nation’s nuclear waste, according to a draft bill. The West Virginia Democrat’s “Nuclear Waste Administration Act” would create an agency apart from the Department of Energy and would be charged with finding and operating a permanent nuclear waste repository in all likelihood outside of Yucca Mountain. The federal government has struggled to find a suitable, long-term solution for the nation’s nuclear waste after pushback from environmentalists and Nevada lawmakers helped shelve the Yucca Mountain site. Manchin’s draft bill, which is expected to get a hearing next week in the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, would compel the newly formed nuclear waste agency to choose a new repository on a consent-based format. Under the bill, local, state and tribal-level stakeholders would need to approve the future project, potentially mitigating the intense opposition previous nuclear waste storage proposals have drawn. Such a format would effectively kill the Yucca Mountain proposal, as both parties in Nevada are opposed to the potential repository. The consent-based approach was part of a recommendation made by an Obama-era commission that studied how to best deal with existing and future nuclear waste. Many of the legislation’s provisions appear to be inspired by the commission’s findings. The commission found that any nuclear waste facility should be developed by a new independent federal organization, one that would not be subject to political and financial control as much as DOE. Manchin’s bill calls for a similar proposal, although his support for an entire agency goes slightly beyond the scope of the commission’s recommendations. The agency would include an administrator subject to Senate confirmation with a six-year tenure and a number of lower-level officials including a deputy administrator. The bill would also authorize a program for the agency to operate one or more federally owned interim storage facilities and one or more interim storage facilities conducted with a private partner.
Anti-Nuke Greens Menace Europe - The German government is moving forward with plans to close its last three nuclear plants this December despite Europe being gripped by the worst energy crisis in 50 years. Robert Habeck, Germany’s Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, said there is no point in operating them because Germany lacks natural gas, not electricity.“Nuclear power doesn’t help us there at all,” Habeck said on Tuesday.“We have a heating problem or an industry problem, but not an electricity problem — at least not generally throughout the country.”Besides, Habeck said, only Russia could provide Germany with the uranium fuel rods required to keep the nuclear plants operating, and there was no way to make sure the plants would be able to operate safely.But none of what Habeck said was true. Coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy all generate electricity. Less nuclear means using more of coal or natural gas, which is why the German Cabinet, led by Habeck, just approved burning more coal.As for safety, the leading provider of nuclear safety testing said Germany’s nuclear plants could keep operating safely after December. "The plants are in a technically excellent condition," said Joachim Buehler, managing director of TUEV. Buehler said that an extensive check, which is usually done every decade, could instead be done within a few months.It’s true that keeping the three reactors on-line won’t do that much to reduce Germany’s dependence on Russian natural gas. In 2022, nuclear plants will only provide 6% of Germany’s electricity. And if their operation were stretched out in 2023 through reduced use of fuel, German nuclear plants could only save 1.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in the EU area through the winter and spring, out of a 20 bcm shortfall, assuming Russia follows through with its natural gas cut-off, as most now believe is likely. But, in a crisis, every bit matters, and the amount that nuclear can offset matters much more than many of the other measures Habeck and others have promoted including showering less frequently, closing the curtains at night, and communiting by bike rather than car. For that reason, a new European Commission report on the natural gas crisis, which was set to be released next Wednesday but was leaked yesterday, called on Germany to postpone its nuclear phase-out because it was necessary for nations to “take into account the impact on the security of supply on other Member States.” And it is rather rich for Habeck, a member of the Green Party, to point out nuclear’s limits. After all, it was the Green Party that led the campaign to reduce Germany’s use of nuclear energy from 25% of electricity ten years ago to just 6% today.
Climate change could force Ohio local governments to spend billions | The Blade - On the same day President Biden announced plans for executive orders addressing what he considers a growing threat posed by climate change, the Ohio Environmental Council detailed how municipal budgets could be affected by climate-related impacts.The group on Wednesday issued a report that said those municipalities statewide could find themselves spending a combined $5.9 billion more a year by 2050 on stronger infrastructure to get Ohio cities better adapted to more intense flooding, heat, and other climate challenges.Mr. Biden announced his upcoming plans in Somerset, Mass., while visiting a facility that was at one time New England’s largest coal-fired power plant and is now becoming a site for manufacturing cables that will help tie offshore wind turbines to electrical grids. The President’s actions, touted as a way of creating good-paying jobs in the clean energy sector, are coming in response to an announcement by U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (D, W.Va.) that he will break from Democrats again and leave them short of a majority because he views the earlier Biden plan for addressing climate change through legislation as too costly and ambitious.Some city councilmen speaking to reporters about the Ohio Environmental Council report, including Toledo councilman Nick Komives, had few concrete alternatives to offer except future tax increases when asked how such staggering costs will be mitigated as the climate crisis worsens in the state.Toledo has already seen some of the costs of climate change, especially after the algae-driven 2014 water crisis. Those extra nutrients create algae that drives up costs at the city’s Collins Park Water Treatment Plant, Mr. Komives said.“Our region has made great progress upgrading our drinking water system since that terrifying event, but there’s still a lot more work to be done,” he told reporters.In its report, the Ohio Environmental Council and its consultant, Scioto Analysis, looked at needed improvement for government buildings, including schools, and other infrastructure, such as water and sewer improvements.In years past, many schools were built without air conditioning, especially in low-income areas. But with Ohio getting warmer, a lack of air conditioning will become more of a priority, according to the report.The report also looked at the need for better roofing, more cooling centers, road repairs, electrical costs, and many other issues, including better public health services for anything from more heat-related illnesses to additional mosquito-borne diseases.The report’s data shows that Toledo will need $6.2 million to $31 million for better air conditioning in urban, high-poverty areas and $44,000 to $670,000 more a year by 2050 for electricity to cool off public buildings.Toledo also would need to dedicate $110,000 more a year to make roofing of its public buildings more energy efficient by 2050, and create 54 more cooling centers at a cost of $5.4 million. Those cooling centers would operate an additional 31 days a year by 2050, creating another $480,000 in operating costs, the report states.It also estimates Toledo will likely spend $24 million more a year and as much as $51 million more a year just to protect its city water supplies from harmful algal blooms by 2050 if the current climate trajectory isn’t slowed down.“We don’t have a choice but to find the money,”
Ohio utility seeks $626M grid upgrade, despite rate scandal -- --FirstEnergy never refunded customers for a failed 2016 grid modernization plan. Now, it is seeking another rate increase to install smart meters and other equipment to reduce power outages. FirstEnergy Corp. has proposed a four-year, $626 million program to modernize the Ohio grid, even as the Akron-based utility still faces questions over how it spent funds for a modernization plan approved in 2016.The proposal, Ohio Grid Mod II, would increase customer rates in order to fund the installation of smart meters and equipment to help reduce the frequency and duration of power outages. It is the utility's third plan to modernize its distribution grids, which deliver electricity to communities over relatively short distances. The plan awaits approval from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO)."While events out of our control, like severe weather or vehicle accidents, still have the potential to cause outages, the proposed plan will allow us to enhance our results from Grid Mod I and expand the work to areas of our service territory that have not yet benefited from these enhancements," Sam Belcher, senior vice president of FirstEnergy Operations, said in a statement. ...
Coal subsidies and gutted renewable standards remain two years after Householder’s bribery arrest - It was a balmy Tuesday morning two years ago when federal agents arrived at the rural Perry County home of Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder.News that one of the most powerful GOP leaders in the state was arrested – as well as the apprehension of four other well-connected lobbyists and consultants – sent shockwaves through the political world in Ohio and around the country.David DeVillers, then-U.S. attorney, explained the charges and unveiled the investigation into a $61 million bribery scheme."Make no mistake. These allegations are bribery, pure and simple. This was a quid pro quo. This was pay-to-play,” said DeVillers.DeVillers said Householder created a dark money group known as “Generation Now” to funnel money in from FirstEnergy, which had owned the nuclear power plants. DeVillers said that money was used by Householder to build support in the legislature and eventually become speaker. In return, Householder was accused of pushing a $1 billion nuclear bailout for FirstEnergy, through HB6 in 2019.Watch: Protesters confront Householder outside federal courthouse in 2020Last year, FirstEnergy signed a corporate plea deal admitting to bribing Householder and at least one other public official. That agreement led to FirstEnergy accepting a $230 million fine.Householder has pleaded not guilty and has maintained his innocence, even on the House floor in June of last year when his fellow lawmakers took up a vote to expel him from office. Catherine Turcer, Common Cause Ohio executive director, said the state is still reeling from the corruption. “Unless we create better disclosure and by that I mean prompt disclosure, we're going to be in an endless cycle of corruption.”Most of HB6 remains in effect. While the subsidies for the nuclear power plants have been scrapped, Republican leaders in the legislature have refused to pass a full repeal of HB6, despite the bill being tied to the bribery scheme.“Consumers are getting hosed in Ohio right now and they know it,” said consumer advocate Lisa Maatz, Ohio Citizens Action’s senior advisor.Other elements of HB6 remain, including guaranteed coal subsidies, a roll back of renewable energy standards and the elimination of energy efficiency requirements.“Politicians have been counting on consumers having short memories about it. But the reality is the sting of this is lingering and we get a reminder of it every month when our bills come up,”
Fracking Co. Tells Ohio Justices Its Equipment Is Exempt – Law360 - A hydraulic fracturing company asked the Ohio Supreme Court to find that its equipment purchases used in oil and gas production were exempt from sales and use tax. Stingray Pressure Pumping LLC asked the Ohio Supreme Court in a brief filed Thursday to reexamine the company's request for sales and use tax exemptions
47 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 11-17 | Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of July 11-17, the three Marcellus/Utica states issued 47 permits to drill new shale wells, up 10 from the prior week. Pennsylvania issued the lion’s share with 35 new permits. CNX grabbed seven of those permits in Washington County, and Olympus Energy received six in Westmoreland County. Ohio issued 11 new permits, with four going to Ascent Resources in Jefferson County, and four to Hilcorp Energy in Columbiana County. West Virginia issued a paltry one new permit, which went to Southwestern Energy in Ohio County.tags: Apex Energy, Armstrong County, Ascent Resources, Bradford County, Butler County, Cabot Oil & Gas, Carroll County, Chesapeake Energy, Clarion County, CNX Resources,Columbiana County, Encino Energy, Energy Companies, EOG Resources, Hilcorp Energy, Inflection Energy, Jefferson County (OH), Laurel Mountain Energy, LOLA Energy, Lycoming County, Ohio County, Olympus/Huntley & Huntley, PennEnergy Resources, Range Resources Corp, Southwestern Energy, Susquehanna County, Washington County, Weekly Permits, Westmoreland County, Wyoming County (PA)
A shale well met an abandoned well a mile away. How did it happen? - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette On June 19, Zach Debolt noticed a geyser shooting up 15 feet above the ground on his property in New Freeport, Greene County.That’s how he described it to James Gillin, a township supervisor and his neighbor, when Mr. Gillin ran over to see what was going on. The geyser was gone by that point, but Mr. Gillin could see water rushing underground through a sinkhole that had formed around an old, abandoned gas well.Mr. Gillin called EQT Corp., the Downtown-based natural gas company that was fracking shale wells from a pad more than a mile away. At that moment, EQT was pumping large volumes of water, sand and chemicals through holes in a pipe that extends horizontally for thousands of feet underground. The pressure of that rush of water is intended to create fractures that extend through the Marcellus Shale formation, releasing the gas trapped inside.EQT stopped fracking the Lumber 13H well that day, and the liquid and gas in the abandoned well on Mr. Debolt’s property subsided. The next day, the company notified the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection of a well communication issue — a term that means one well has interacted with another.Since then, the company and the DEP have been investigating exactly what happened.“They’re going to want to know where all this water went,” Mr. Gillin said, referring to the fast-flowing river he saw through the sinkhole.If fluid from a frack job 1.5 miles underground reached an old shallow well 1.2 miles away from the Marcellus Shale well pad, the impact would fall outside the radius that shale drillers must survey before they break ground and beyond the so-called zone of presumption (2,500 feet from the wellbore). That designated area allows landowners to get replacement water from a driller suspected of causing damage to their water supply.It would also raise questions about the complicated geology in southwestern Pennsylvania.Whatever happened underground was enough to momentarily suck all the water from Mr. Gillin’s house and dewater his septic tank, leaving a sludge.Several neighbors believe it may have also impacted their water wells.Tammy Yoders said her son broke out in hives after taking a shower the day of the incident, which they only learned about the next day from a Facebook postThe DEP and EQT came to her house and left with half a dozen bottles of water to sample. EQT supplied the family with several cases of bottled water, which are now long gone, Ms. Yoders said, but they haven’t asked the company for more. Now, they buy drinking water while they wait for the test results. In this small community, rumors started flying immediately, especially since it wasn’t EQT notifying people but their neighbors.Tom Bussoletti was shopping in Waynesburg when he ran into another township supervisor who told him about the well issue, called a “frack out.”Mr. Bussoletti thought about the high-pressure propane line that runs under his property. That line was why he opposed EQT’s Lumber well pad in the first place.He was already on edge about EQT’s trucks parking on top of the line. Finding out about a problem underground was more unwelcome news. That he was hearing about it days later was aggravating. Mr. Bussoletti called around. He heard from his neighbor, Liz Pebley, that the DEP found methane in her water well and suggested it be aerated to get rid of it. “Of course, I tried to light it and it didn’t [light],” she chuckled, figuring that methane would catch on fire. She doesn’t drink well water, Ms. Pebley said, and hasn’t since she lived in West Virginia, where fracking made her more cautious. But she does cook with it. Like the other families, she’s waiting for the results that she says will go to her landlord first.Wendy Saul, whose property is north of Mr. Bussoletti’s, found out about the incident on Facebook from Tammy’s daughter Tonya Yoders, who posted that the DEP was testing water. She, too, is awaiting water results. The DEP said it is investigating several water supply complaints while EQT’s spokesman Bridget McNie said in a statement that “water sampling and well monitoring have shown no other areas of concern at this time.”
Since the ‘frack out,’ it’s oily showers, mysterious smells and thirsty pets for residents of a Southwestern PA town - Frack out in PA town leaves residents questioning water safety. A strange smell wafted across the room as well water began to flow through the hose in Bill Yoders’ garage. The smell wasn’t quite sulfur, and it didn’t smell like gas. But it sure wasn’t plain water either.“That smell was never there before,” he said, adding that the water’s yellow tint was new, too. Since June 19, Yoders said, his two dogs have refused to drink the water. He’s still using the water to shower. “It kind of leaves an oily film on you,” he said. His wife, Tammy, said their 23-year-old son, Loran, broke out in hives after he took a shower at home on that June day. ”He was pure blood red, hives from head to toe,” she said.For a month, the Yoders family and other households in the Greene County hamlet of New Freeport have been living with deep concerns about their water supply. On June 19, some residents became aware, through word of mouth or a township supervisor’s Facebook post, that Pittsburgh-based EQT Corporation had reported a “frack out” at a nearby well drilling site. A frack out — sometimes spelled “frac out” — occurs when fluid pumped into a well to fracture shale formations and release gas instead enters an abandoned well. EQT, in a statement provided to PublicSource, indicated that “water was brought to the surface near an abandoned well” and that it had stopped drilling operations at its well a mile away “out of an abundance of caution.”Residents, meanwhile, are yearning for clarity on the quality of their water. Both the state Department of Environmental Protection [DEP] and Moody and Associates, a subcontractor for EQT, sent representatives to gather water samples for testing. Most residents said they have not yet received test results as of early this week. Independently, Duquesne University microbiology Professor John Stolz went to New Freeport to test the water. Preliminary data and on-site measurements from three private wells, he told PublicSource, were enough for him to conclude: “This water is not potable.” “Folks have to be provided alternative sources of drinking water,” Stolz said. The Yoders said EQT dropped off three cases and five jugs of water to the house after Bill called the corporation. That water is long gone now, they said. “A couple cases of water don’t mean anything,” he said.
CEASRA hosting landfill update -The Citizens’ Environmental Association of the Slippery Rock Area Inc. is hosting a program to share updates about the landfill being proposed by Tri-County Industries Inc.“Our Radioactive Landfill” will be held at 7 p.m. July 29 at the Grove City borough building, 123 W. Main St., Grove City, according to a news release from the organization, which is also known as CEASRA.There will be guest speakers from other parts of Pennsylvania who have experienced the effects of radioactive waste in their communities.CEASRA and community members have voiced concerns for a number of years about TCI’s plans to reopen a landfill on property the company owns in Liberty and Pine townships. As TCI continues to make its way through the rest of the permitting process, CEASRA wants to make residents aware of the potential dangers they believe the landfill presents, like radioactive fracking waste.The presentation will include information from DEP about how Vogel Holding Inc., which owns the TCI property, has dumped radioactive leachate from its Seneca landfill into the Connoquenessing Creek, CEASRA members said.TCI’s permit application for the new landfill notes that the leachate — which is liquid from landfill waste — will be similar to leachate at the Seneca landfill, said Jane Cleary, CEASRA member.Radioactive waste has become a huge problem for Pennsylvania residents, as most landfills are permitted to accept radioactive fracking waste.Dust from the waste can be airborne and inhaled, leading to serious health conditions like bone cancer, especially in children, she said.There is no easy way to remove the radioactivity from the liquid nor the landfill, and Dr. Julie Weatherington-Rice, a soil scientist at Ohio State University, has said that a landfill with fracking waste is a “permanent reactor near your house” with the same cancer-causing radon levels 500 years from now.
Pipeline explosion cause not yet provided - Bradford Era - It has been nearly two weeks since a section of the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) exploded near Clermont, and little is known about the cause. A representative from Kinder Morgan, the parent company of TGP, stated July 15, “A thorough investigation is underway and will take some time to complete.” On Thursday, Kinder Morgan responded to questions submitted regarding what happened and the process taken in the aftermath. Concerning a reported “release of gas,” Kinder Morgan was asked what kind of gas specifically and how far the release could travel in the air? “Natural gas is the type of gas that we transport in that pipeline, and that is the product that was released,” KM responded. “Natural gas is lighter than air, and many factors determine how it dissipates making it difficult to ascertain how far it travels.” The company was also asked if there was any danger to wildlife or residents in the area from a release of natural gas. “There were no adverse impacts to the residents or wildlife reported from this event,” KM responded. After the blast, KM indicated “the pressure was lowered.” The Era asked what is the difference between the pressure of the line being lowered and the line being completely shut off. KM responded, “During an incident, we shut down and isolate the impacted pipeline segment which was a portion of Line 1 on our Tennessee Gas Pipeline 300 system. We did so during this incident by closing mainline valve 309 and mainline valve 310, which are on either side of the segment that experienced the failure. The impacted segment remains shut down. “Line 2 on our TGP system parallels Line 1, and the operating pressure of that pipeline was lowered, as a precaution, until we determined that it hadn’t sustained any collateral damage as part of the in-service failure on Line 1. This line has resumed normal operations.” KM pointed to its website for further information concerning updated notices. From there, it was found that the company had declared a “Force Majeure” on Main Line Valve 309 and MLV 310, on Line 1, as of July 13 and until further notice. This is classified, on the report, as critical. According to the Wilcox Volunteer Fire Department, a call came in at 5:23 p.m. July 12, with a report of a suspected brush fire with flames “shooting over the trees with large columns of smoke” in the area of the Instanter Boat Launch on the East Branch of the Clarion River Dam. Dispatch reported the caller had heard a “loud roar” as well. However, fire crews could not find anything in the vicinity of the boat launch and the chief canceled additional units who were en route. An hour later, at 6:35 p.m., the Clermont Volunteer Fire Department requested assistance from several departments for a large wildfire and what had been reported as a gas line explosion. As crews began arriving at the Wilcox Clermont Road location, a command post was set up approximately 2 miles down the road. The crews walked the TGP line until they were able to find where the 24-inch line had ruptured. According to reports, this rupture caused the fire that burned approximately 5 acres of surrounding land. TGP lowered the pressure on the pipeline, which helped the crews who were extinguishing flames. One of the first updates received from Kinder Morgan stated, “As of (Tuesday, July 12) evening, Tennessee Gas Pipeline confirmed that there was a natural gas release and fire on a pipeline segment of its 300 system in a rural area of McKean County, Pennsylvania. The company shut down the impacted pipeline segment and worked with local responders to isolate the area. The fire was extinguished later that evening, and there were no injuries from the event. The incident remains under investigation, and the company is working with regulatory agencies as needed.”
New England gas prices top $20 on AGT system restrictions, demand spike - Natural gas prices in New England are up sharply over past several days as strong demand on Algonquin Gas Transmission collides with a planned service outage on the pipeline, prompting the system operator to impose operational flow orders to manage system pressure and deliveries. On July 20, the cash market at Algonquin city-gates surged to nearly $23/MMBtu, more than doubling on the day. At Iroquois Zone 2 spot prices jumped to nearly $21. At both locations, prices are up from weekend settlement levels at under $7/MMBtu, Intercontinental Exchange and Platts data showed. Earlier this week, constraints on Algonquin began lifting spot gas prices at the Boston-area city-gate. Since at least July 16, capacity on Algonquin's J-system delivering into Boston has remained at zero, down from over 250 MMcf/d owing to a planned maintenance outage that could continue to limit deliveries into the metro-area. The transmission outage on the J-system is currently scheduled to conclude July 21 but is subject to change and was previously extended an additional two days earlier this week by the pipeline operator. Over the past several days, the system outage on Algonquin has coincided with a surge in demand. On July 20, Algonquin deliveries to local distribution companies or LDCs edged up to nearly 600 MMcf/d, up from levels under 300 MMcf/d earlier this week. Power plant deliveries have also climbed over the past several days to an average 950 MMcf/d July 19-20, up from about 650 MMcf/d over the weekend, Platts Analytics data shows. Rising LDC and power demand on Algonquin's pipeline has accompanied a recent spike in temperatures with Boston and Hartford, Connecticut, recording highs in the low- to mid-90s Fahrenheit on July 20. Amid rising demand downstream demand, nomination requests on Algonquin have exceeded operational capacity at some locations, resulting in the imposition of some flow restrictions in accordance with capacity priority.
Gas industry drags FERC into tussle over pipeline scheme - Pipeline companies pushed back this week against claims that they are artificially inflating the price of natural gas, urging the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to allow them to continue a sales practice of bundling gas capacity from nonadjacent sections of pipe.The comments from the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA) and multiple pipeline companies are the latest in an ongoing tussle between key segments of the natural gas industry. They come in response to a recent petition from gas utilities, producers, shippers and others accusing the pipeline industry of anticompetitive behavior and asking FERC to step in to address it (Energywire, June 6).To obtain natural gas, gas utilities and other shippers that consume or process the fuel sometimes participate in “open seasons” held by pipelines, in which parties submit bids for capacity on a section of pipe. In recent years, pipelines have increasingly begun to bundle multiple noncontiguous capacity offers into a single bid, forcing shippers to purchase gas that they cannot use, according to the original petition.But in their comments to FERC, pipeline companies argued that the practice enables them to offer lower rates, which ultimately get passed onto residential customers and industrial consumers of gas. They also reminded FERC that it has repeatedly affirmed the use of noncontiguous capacity offers and dismissed past complaints about them.“The Petition is a plain attempt to get yet another bite at the apple and falls far short of offering the substantial evidence needed to justify a drastic departure from a policy that the Commission has applied consistently for decades,” INGAA, a trade group for pipeline companies, wrote in a comment this week to FERC.INGAA argued that FERC has taken the position for years that maximizing the revenue and use of pipeline capacity is good for all parties in the long run. In addition, other protections are already in place to ensure pipelines do not impose monopoly prices, the group said.
From Farmland to Frac Sand - One Monday in June, excavators were tearing into a field in Wedron, Illinois where the nubs of last season’s dried corn stalks were still sticking out of the ground. Behind where the crew worked, strips of earth had been carved out like steps on a wide staircase descending to the bottom of a deep pit. On the far side, fine sand the color of snow was piled in front of soaring, solid walls of sandstone. Picture standing on a ledge looking down into the biggest rock quarry you’ve ever seen. Then, enlarge that image 100 times, whitewash it, and add turquoise blue pools of wastewater. This is silica mining. Fracking, a process used to extract natural gas and petroleum, depends on silica sand, or “frac sand” to produce the fossil fuels. A single fracking site can use millions of pounds of sand. The sand is blasted into wells to keep fissures in the rock open so that oil and gas can be released. In the Midwest, farmland is being irreversibly lost in pursuit of silica sand. Wedron Silica, which is now owned by Ohio-based Covia, has been expanding this particular mine for years and now owns at least 2,500 acres in and around the tiny village. It’s just one of several that Covia owns across LaSalle County, Illinois, 90 miles southwest of Chicago. Here, U.S. Silica, Smart Sand, and other companies are also actively mining. Together, the companies have purchased hundreds of parcels of land and now own more than 9,000 acres in LaSalle, a Civil Eats investigation has found. The majority of those acres are former or current farmland. Silica mining is also prevalent in other parts of Illinois and regions of Wisconsin and Missouri. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), LaSalle County’s farmland acreage dropped 5 percent from 2012 to 2017, to 573,000 acres. But many of the acres still identified as farmland are owned by mining companies and leased to farmers. Across the street from the mining activity in Wedron, for example, Covia owns 600 acres, where tiny corn plants were just starting to green up in neat rows. In 2018, the county approved the company’s application to expand into those farm fields, despite the fact that LaSalle County Soil and Water Conservation District discouraged the decision based on a site assessment score that identified the land as “highly productive.” Digging could start at any time.
US sets course for natural gas production records - US natural gas production will push past 100 billion cubic feet per day by the end of the year as producers scramble to boost output to meet growing global demand for gas, according to a leading market analyst. The US is already the world’s largest gas producer but increased production in major shale plays is helping the nation expand its lead over Russia, Rystad Energy said this week. The primary producing regions will continue to be the Marcellus and Utica shales in the US north-east, the Haynesville shale in Louisiana and the Permian basin in Texas and Louisiana.
Rystad: US natural gas output to top 100 bcfd by end-2022 -US natural gas production is expected to hit a record high of more than 100 bcfd by the end of the year, Rystad Energy analysis shows. Production growth in major US gas-producing basins, in addition to associated gas production in the Permian, will cement the country's position as the world's largest gas producer, stretching its lead over Russia. Within shale gas plays, the Marcellus, Utica, and Haynesville are set to contribute the most. Rystad Energy expects production from the Haynesville alone to grow by 2.6 bcfd this year compared with 2021, pushing annual output to more than 14 bcfd. Production from the basin is forecast to jump next year as well, reaching 17.2 bcfd by end 2023. The company noted, however, that growth in Appalachia basin remains entirely dependent on progress of the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline, which faces significant legal hurdles. The recent surge in global natural gas prices is pushing US exploration and production companies to increase investment in an effort to take advantage of competitive breakeven costs. A well-documented supply shortage in Europe is pushing up prices on the continent amid efforts to ease reliance on Russian gas. Given the wide US and European price differences, shipping US gas across the Atlantic, even considering the pricey liquefaction process, is economically advantageous. The US-Europe price spread has widened steadily since summer 2020. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing global energy crisis accelerated the disparity. As of July 15, Henry Hub prices were $7/MMbtu, while the TTF stood at $47/MMbtu. Although LNG production capacity constraints remain, with new LNG capacity expected to be added only after 2024, the US’s role in global gas markets should grow for some time to come, said Kristine Vassbotn, Rystad Energy senior analyst. Upstream investments in the Haynesville of $7.4 billion are set to exceed the Marcellus this year for the first time since 2009. Haynesville investments will grow 47% from 2021 to 2022, according to Rystad, followed by the Utica and Marcellus at 26% and 21%, respectively. The increase in investments in 2022 is a combination of increased activity in response to prices, particularly in the Haynesville, and increased well costs due to inflation. The Marcellus has the largest undrilled leased acreage of the three basins at 6.7 million acres. As policymakers seek ways to boost domestic output, the Marcellus has plenty of remaining commercial acreage and inventory to unlock, should takeaway constraints eventually ease in the Northeast. The Haynesville has the least undrilled acreage at 1.8 million acres. In terms of remaining gas reserves, the Marcellus has the most, with close to 380 tcf. The Haynesville follows, with 202 tcf.
LNG exports shoot up in Louisiana, US in 2022 amid booming demand --Led by a trio of Louisiana facilities, the United States’ liquefied natural gas export terminals are exceeding their 2021 pace amid growing demand for LNG in natural gas-starved Europe. Collectively, the seven operating LNG export terminals in the U.S. have pumped out more than 1.7 trillion cubic feet of LNG through May, according to the most recent data available from the Department of Energy. That’s nearly 260 billion more than the nearly 1.5 trillion cubic feet that U.S. terminals moved at the same point last year. Leading the way was Sabine Pass LNG in Cameron Parish, near the Texas border. Sabine Pass LNG has exported nearly 626.9 billion cubic feet through May, a 100 billion-cubic-foot spike compared with its total through the same month in 2021. The facility has accounted for more than a third of U.S. production so far. Sabine Pass LNG’s output nearly doubled the second-place facility, Corpus Christi Liquefaction in Corpus Christi, Texas, which exported 315 billion cubic feet through May. Both facilities are owned by Houston-based Cheniere Energy. Cameron LNG in Hackberry has produced 274 billion cubic feet through May, good enough for fourth in the U.S. rankings. That’s a jump of nearly 29 billion cubic feet from the same point a year ago. All six of the terminals that were in operation last year posted year-over-year gains in May. Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass facility, near the mouth of the Calcasieu Ship Channel in Cameron Parish, came online in January and has shipped more than 61 billion cubic feet so far this year. In total, U.S. LNG terminals sent more than 351 billion cubic feet of exports in May alone, an 11.5% increase from May 2021 and a 6.4% increase from April of this year.
We Gotta Get Out of This Place - Court Decision Helps Supply Access to LNG Export Facilities - Europe is trying to wean itself off Russian natural gas, and few things would help it more than an expansion of U.S. LNG export capacity. But LNG projects don't just need long-term commitments for their output, they also need pipelines to transport natural gas from the Marcellus/Utica and other distant production areas to their coastal liquefaction plants. And, in case you hadn't noticed, new interstate gas pipelines face a lot of hurdles during the regulatory review process these days — getting a pipeline approved is tougher than snagging a Saturday morning tee time. Which brings us to, of all things, an important court ruling. In today's RBN blog, we discuss the implications of the DC Circuit's decision in City of Oberlin v. FERC. On July 8, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (a.k.a. the DC Circuit) updated a decision that could have a significant impact on the supply of feedgas to LNG export facilities. In the case of City of Oberlin, Ohio v. FERC, the DC Circuit reversed an earlier finding that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) had not explained why export volumes on a proposed interstate pipeline project can be used to help justify approval of the new pipe projects. The case involved the city of Oberlin's challenge to FERC's approval of the NEXUS pipeline, carrying natural gas from the Utica Shale in eastern Ohio to the gas hub in Dawn, ON (among other destinations). The project sponsors had included the gas flows to Dawn as support for approval of the pipeline, to help meet the requirements of FERC’s “certificate policy” that a public benefit had to be shown for pipeline construction to be authorized. In what the DC Circuit now refers to as its "Oberlin I" decision, the court, in 2019, found that FERC needed to explain why volumes on NEXUS going to Canada were a benefit to the U.S. public. That decision had been used by LNG opponents, such as Sierra Club, to claim that the same issue affects feedgas pipelines built to serve LNG export terminals. They argued that such pipelines shouldn’t receive certificates to allow construction or the eminent domain rights that automatically go with those certificates if they didn’t show a benefit to the U.S. public. The DC Circuit's decision last month (“Oberlin II”) reversed Oberlin I, finding that FERC has now explained itself well enough and that, yes, natural gas exports can provide public benefits in the U.S. So, does this reversal clear the way for LNG feedgas pipelines to be built without running into legal roadblocks? Well, it pretty much knocks down one potential roadblock, but that’s a start.Two parts of the Natural Gas Act of 1938 (NGA) are involved: Section 3 and Section 7. Section 3 deals with the import and export of natural gas. It’s jointly administered by the Department of Energy (DOE) and FERC. DOE decides whether an export is in the public interest and FERC decides whether to authorize an LNG export terminal. Section 7, in turn, deals with the construction of interstate natural gas pipelines. It's exclusively administered by FERC. One of the most important differences between the two sections is that Section 7 includes a grant of eminent domain (added to the NGA in 1947), so that if a pipeline developer cannot get a landowner to negotiate for right of way, it can petition a court for condemnation. This helps a lot in keeping pipelines straighter and cheaper than they otherwise would be. Section 3, however, does not include an eminent domain provision. Also, a Section 7 pipeline can transport interstate gas for any shipper, not just the LNG terminal. A Section 3 pipeline can’t — it’s just treated as a piece of the terminal. So, for a pipeline needed to feed gas to an LNG export terminal, it’s a big deal whether the pipeline is authorized under Section 3 or Section 7.
‘Super-Hot’ Weather Pattern Spurs on Natural Gas Futures Rally - Natural gas futures flew higher on Monday, building on the prior week’s gains, as soaring temperatures baked much of the Lower 48 and forecasts called for heat waves to fester through July and into next month. The August Nymex contract jumped 46.3 cents day/day and settled at $7.479. September gained 45.6 cents to $7.382.The prompt month advanced 16% last week, including a 41.6-cent gain on Friday.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. mounted further momentum of its own, rising $1.145 to $7.745. Hubs throughout the country posted strong gains.Cash prices cruised higher last week, too. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the July 11-15 period spiked 88.5 cents to $6.730.“The pattern remains in super-hot mode,” Bespoke Weather Services said Monday, adding its forecast calls for a few record gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) over the next two weeks. That would put the market “on pace for a July that ranks among the top three hottest months on record in terms of total GWDDs. This includes a continuation of blistering heat in places like Texas, where the hottest weather comes the next three days, bringing up the chance for at least one day of 110 in Dallas.“Looking ahead,” the firm added, “we have little reason to think we will not continue to see above normal heat on into at least the first part of the month of August, keeping weather easily on the supportive side.” Bears had previously seized upon the Freeport LNG outage that followed an early June fire. It cut U.S. export capacity by about 2.0 Bcf/d through at least early fall. That gas is now available for domestic consumption.However, “all of this extra heat is really chewing away at the 200-plus Bcf given to the market’s end-of-season storage projections by the Freeport LNG debacle,” Bespoke said. “In fact, just with the forecast we see through the first few days of August, we estimate that weather has negated as much as 85 Bcf. Should heat continue this strongly into the rest of August, prices will continue to move higher, as injections will remain rather low.”The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) most recently printed an injection of 58 Bcf into natural gas storage for the week ended July 8. It lifted working gas in storage to 2,369 Bcf, yet stocks were 319 Bcf below the five-year average. Dry gas production gained 1.0 Bcf/d over the weekend to around 97 Bcf/d, EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin noted. That lifted output to near 2022 highs. “If supply continues to increase, it could adjust the long-term storage outlook and severely slash shortage risk premiums for later this year,” Rubin said. For now, however, “searing heat” is driving markets higher.
U.S. natgas futures slide 3% as output rises, technical resistance (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Tuesday after failing to break through a key point of technical resistance as overall output continues to rise to record levels and a small, brief decline in gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. That price decline came despite a preliminary one-day drop in output on Tuesday, a preliminary increase in LNG feed gas on Tuesday and forecasts for hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand next week than previously expected. Extreme heat has already boosted power demand to record highs in several parts of the country, including Texas and other U.S. Central states, as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the weather. Also pressuring gas prices was the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which leaves more fuel in the United States for utilities to refill low storage. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG has said the facility could return around Oct. 22. Some analysts, however, expect the outage to last longer. Front-month gas futures fell 21.5 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $7.264 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since June 13. On the technical side, the front-month failed to break above its 50-day moving average for a second day in a row, making that a key level of resistance. So far this year, the front-month is up about 96% as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow would cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $49 per mmBtu in Europe and $37 in Asia. After the shutdown of Nord Stream 1 for maintenance on July 11, Russian gas exports have held around 1.4 bcfd on the three main lines into Germany: Nord Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. That is down from an average of 3.7 bcfd in the month before Nord Stream shut and an average of 9.4 bcfd in July 2021. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to 11.1 bcfd so far in July from 11.2 bcfd in June due to a brief upset at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana on Monday. That was down from 12.5 bcfd in May and a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March due to the Freeport outage. Feed gas to Calcasieu was expected to return to 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday after sliding to 0.8 bcfd on Monday. That compares with an average of 1.5 bcfd over the past week.
U.S. natgas futures jump 10% on hotter forecasts, output decline (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 10% to a five-week high on Wednesday on forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks to boost air-conditioner use and gas-fired electrical demand following a recent decline in output. A brutal heat wave has already boosted power demand for air conditioning to record highs in several parts of the country, including Texas. "Power demand reached an all time high ... yesterday," analysts at Gelber & Associates said in a report, noting, "Next week is expected to be the hottest of the season." Power companies were burning lots of gas to produce all that power in part because coal prices were near record highs, making it uneconomic for many generators to switch to coal-fired plants. Gas prices rose despite a drop in feed gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to upsets at a couple facilities in Louisiana and the ongoing outage at Freeport in Texas, which leaves more fuel in the United States. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Front-month gas futures rose 74.3 cents, or 10.2%, to settle at $8.007 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 13. In what has already been an extremely volatile year of trade, Wednesday's gain was only the biggest one-day percentage gain since early July. There have already been 11 days where the front-month has settled up or down over 10% in 2022. So far this year, the front-month was up about 115% as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $48 per mmBtu in Europe and $38 in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 96.1 bcfd so far in July from 95.3 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record high of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop 2.7 bcfd from a six-month high of 97.3 bcfd on Monday to a preliminary five-week low of 94.6 bcfd on Wednesday. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand including exports would slide from 100.9 bcfd this week to 100.1 bcfd next week as extreme heat starts to ease in some parts of the country. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. With hot weather blanketing much of the country, next-day power in New England soared to $199 per megawatt hour for Wednesday, its highest since late January.
US working natural gas in storage increases by 32 Bcf on week: EIA | S&P Global Commodity Insights - US natural gas working stocks rose by 32 Bcf during the week ended July 15, undershooting market expectations and providing bullish fodder for US gas futures markets. Storage inventories rose to 2.401 Tcf for the week ended July 15, the US Energy Information Administration reported on July 21. The build was well below an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of analysts calling for a 44 Bcf net injection, although it was within the wider range of 25-58 Bcf. The weekly injection also was less than the 50 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2021, and below the five-year average draw of 41 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, the deficit to both the five-year average and year-ago week widened. Stocks in the most recent reporting week were 270 Bcf, or 10.1%, below the year-ago level of 2.671 Tcf, and 328 Bcf, or 12%, below the five-year average of 2.729 Tcf. The smaller-than-expected build initially galvanized US gas futures July 21, with the session's highs giving way to a more tepid response by the close of trading. The NYMEX Henry Hub August contract surged 35 cents to $8.10/MMBtu in the 10 minutes of trading following the weekly storage report, erasing the pre-storage report pricing weakness observed earlier in the session. The contract had been trading around $7.75/MMBtu in the 30 minutes before the July 21 storage report launched, down around 25 cents from its prior-day rally to $8.007/MMBtu. Prior to July 20, the NYMEX prompt-month contract last settled above $8/MMBtu in mid-June. At close, the August contract settled at $7.932/MMBtu, down 7.50 cents from its prior day's settlement. Ongoing heat wave conditions have spiked power sector demand for gas so far in July, absorbing volumes that might otherwise have flowed into storage. Total US power burn demand has exceeded the five-year average every day since June 18, Platts Analytics data showed. Between July 1-20, 14 days have seen power burn demand outpace the five-year maximum as well. Gas-fired power demand has been especially strong in Texas and the Southeast, which are largely captured in the EIA's South-Central region. The South-Central region saw a 16 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ended July 15, the region's first net pull so far this injection season. Withdrawals from salt caverns drove the net decrease in storage, with non-salt storage recording no change from the previous week.
Natural Gas Futures Fly Back Above $8 Amid Relentless Heat, Storage Concerns - Natural gas futures flexed some pricing muscle on Friday on the heels of a solidly bullish storage report and a shift hotter in an already sizzling late-summer weather outlook. The August Nymex gas futures contract gained 36.7 cents day/day and settled at $8.299/MMBtu to close the week. September advanced 38.0 cents to $8.195. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. followed suit, rising 1.5 cents to $8.385. Markets on Friday mulled the implications of a seasonally weak inventory build and the prospect of more to come as exceptional cooling demand has come to define the summer of 2022. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday posted a 32 Bcf injection of gas into underground storage for the week ended July 15. The print fell short of expectations and historic norms. Polls ahead of the EIA report pointed to an increase in the mid- to high-40s Bcf. The actual build compared to the 50 Bcf increase in the comparable week last year and a five-year average injection of 41 Bcf. The injection raised working gas in storage to 2,401 Bcf, though stocks were 328 Bcf below the five-year average. On a weather-adjusted basis, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said the latest EIA report implied the market was about 3 Bcf/d undersupplied. Summer heat remains a “primary driver of price action” for the natural gas market, having pushed power generation demand to an all-time high at 47.5 Bcf/d during the July 17-22 week, roughly 6 Bcf/d above seasonal norms, according to the TPH analysts. Analysts at The Schork Report said the government assessment came in 24% below the most conservative forecast in major polls. About halfway through the storage refill season, they said, the market has covered 45% of last winter’s gas deliveries. The market had anticipated that the Freeport LNG outage – caused by a June fire – would ease supply worries even in the face of prolonged heat. The outage cut export capacity by 2.0 Bcf for the summer – and likely longer – and that gas is now available for domestic use. But utilities are eating through the added supply and still struggling to narrow the storage deficit to the five-year average. Meanwhile, output climbed to around 97 Bcf early in the past week – near a summer high. But producers were not able to sustain that level as maintenance projects interrupted momentum and curbed output to around 95-96 Bcf late in the week. Bespoke Weather Services said widespread high temperatures in the 90s and 100s put this month on track to be one of the three hottest Julys on record. Now, the latest outlooks shifted hotter and put next month on a path to become one of the five hottest Augusts in the firm’s data set. “If this heat does indeed continue throughout August, it is likely that prices still move higher from here, and end-of-season storage projection could fall as low as 3.25 Tcf, with hot weather having eaten away most of what Freeport gave the market,” Bespoke said. “Such a scenario would mean prices could still manage to touch $10.00 yet.” ”
U.S. regulators to inspect shuttered Texas LNG plant in September (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) will inspect Freeport LNG's shuttered liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in September, the agency said on Tuesday. The plant shut on June 8 because of a fire and was expected to remain out of service until October, Freeport LNG said in an email on Tuesday. Both FERC and the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) said they would not allow the facility to return to service until they approve the restart. The September inspection is a standard annual site inspection. The shutdown of Freeport caused natural gas prices in Europe to jump about 40% in the week after the plant shut because it reduced the volume of available exports from the United States at a time when the world is short on natural gas supply. Europe has been buying U.S. LNG heavily due to reduced flows from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 and subsequent sanctions placed on Russia by the United States and its allies. The Freeport shutdown also caused U.S. gas prices to drop because it left more of the fuel in the United States, allowing utilities to quickly rebuild low gas stockpiles. U.S. futures dropped about 44% due in part to the ongoing outage of Freeport from a near 14-year high of $9.66 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on June 8, the day Freeport shut, to a three-month low of $5.33 on July 5. In addition to the notice about the upcoming Sept. 13-15 inspection, FERC asked Freeport to provide information about the plant, including "any abnormal operating conditions at the facility" and "any changes in the facility design, process equipment, process piping ... that have been made" since the last FERC inspection on June 23-24, 2021.
U.S. Coast Guard Contains Over 1 Mn Gallons From Longest Oil Spill -The U.S. Coast Guard and partner agencies have successfully contained and collected over one million gallons of oil discharged from subsurface oil wells connected to a toppled oil platform in Mississippi Canyon Block 20, some 11 miles offshore Louisiana. The platform collapsed in 2004 due to Hurricane Ivan, and oil continues to leak from the damaged wells making this the longest-running oil spill in U.S. history. Since April 2019, oil has been captured, contained, and removed from the site while a permanent plan to decommission the oil wells effectively and safely at the MC-20 site is being developed. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, 1,016,929 gallons of oil have been collected from the site as of July 12, 2022. A subsea containment system designed, fabricated, installed, and operated by Couvillion Group continues to collect an average of 900 gallons of oil per day with the Coast Guard overseeing continuous oil collection and necessary system maintenance. “The near elimination of the surface sheen and collection and removal of more than one million gallons of oil from the site over the previous three years is a major milestone in the Coast Guard’s efforts to contain the MC-20 oil spill that has affected the waters off the Gulf Coast for years,” said Kelly Denning, the Coast Guard’s Federal On-Scene Coordinator for the incident. “Though the containment system is considered a great success, the federal government is exploring all available response options, including properly decommissioning the impacted wells on site,” Denning added. To remind, a settlement between the United States and Taylor Energy was reached in late December last year in which Taylor Energy agreed to transfer all remaining funds in the Taylor Energy Decommissioning Trust to the United States. This meant that Taylor Energy would pay over $43 million for the settlement and transfer the $432 million decommissioning trust fund in its entirety. The funds will be used to properly decommission the oil wells which were originally connected to the downed platform at the MC-20 site. The terms of the settlement are outlined in the Consent Decree entered by the District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana on March 17, 2022. The response to the active oil spill continues to be led by the Coast Guard Federal On-Scene Coordinator and is supported by its federal partners, including the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Currently, the Coast Guard is gathering key subsurface data which is intended to support future federal efforts to decommission the MC-20 wells which the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement and U.S. Coast Guard believe is the necessary step to ultimately bring this incident to a close.
Gulf of Mexico: 1 million gallons of oil collected from 18-year-old spill over past three years - The U.S. Coast Guard, in collaboration with partner agencies, has contained and collected over one million gallons of oil discharged from subsurface oil wells connected to a toppled oil platform in Mississippi Canyon Block 20 (MC-20), located 11 miles south of the Louisiana shoreline. The MC20 platform, operated by Taylor Energy, collapsed in an underwater mudslide caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, spilling oil into the Gulf of Mexico. The oil continues to leak from the damaged wells and this is described as the longest-running oil spill in the U.S. history. In an update last week, the U.S. Coast Guard informed that 1,016,929 gallons of oil have been collected – as of 12 July 2022 – from the MC-20 site with oil being captured, contained, and removed from the site since April 2019, while a permanent plan to effectively and safely decommission the oil wells at the MC-20 site is being developed. Capt. Kelly Denning, the Coast Guard’s Federal On-Scene Coordinator for the incident, remarked: “The near elimination of the surface sheen and collection and removal of more than one million gallons of oil from the site over the previous three years is a major milestone in the Coast Guard’s efforts to contain the MC-20 oil spill that has affected the waters off the Gulf Coast for years. “Though the containment system is considered a great success, the federal government is exploring all available response options, including to properly decommission the impacted wells on site.” Furthermore, a subsea containment system – which was designed, fabricated, installed, and operated by Couvillion Group, specifically in response to this incident – continues to collect an average of 900 gallons of oil per day with the Coast Guard overseeing continuous oil collection and necessary system maintenance. Back in December 2021, a settlement between the United States and Taylor Energy was reached in which Taylor Energy agreed to transfer all remaining funds in the Taylor Energy Decommissioning Trust to the United States.
US Shale Plays Expected to Boost Oil, Gas Output in August – Energy companies drilling in shale basins across the United States are projected to increase production of oil and natural gas in August, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. According to EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, the seven identified shale regions across the country are projected to collectively increase oil production by 136,000 barrels a day and boost natural gas output by 748 million cubic feet per day next month compared to July. Energy producers in the Appalachian region — which includes the Utica shale in eastern Ohio and the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia — expect to increase gas production by 207 million cubic feet per day and oil by 3,000 barrels daily from the previous month. The Appalachian region easily produces the largest volume of natural gas in the country. In August, daily production is estimated to rise to 35.3 billion cubic feet per day from 35.1 billion cubic feet in July. Oil output likely to grow slightly from 130,000 barrels per day this month to 133,000 barrels in August, according to the report. The Permian Basin, located mostly in western Texas, is the second largest gas producer with a projected output of 20.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day by next month. The region is the largest oil producer in volume, anticipating increasing production by 78,000 barrels to 5.4 million barrels per day. Six out of the seven shale plays anticipate more oil production in August, according to EIA’s report. The Haynesville shale in eastern Texas and western Louisiana expects no change in production. Natural gas production is estimated to increase all of the regions with the exception of the Anandarko Basin in Oklahoma, which expects to see a decrease of 12 million cubic feet per day next month, EIA reported.
US shale oil production is expected to rise by 136 thousand barrels per day -- The US Energy Information Administration expects shale oil production in the United States to increase by 136 thousand barrels per day during August of this year (2022).According to the drilling productivity report – issued by the administration today, Monday, July 18, it is expected that shale oil supplies from the seven major basins in America will rise to 9.068 million barrels per day next month, compared to the expected level of 8.932 million barrels per day, during the current July.US natural gas production from major shale basins is likely to increase by 748 million cubic feet per day in August, according to the report, seen by the Energy Research Unit.The Energy Information Administration estimates that production of shale oil in the Permian Basin will rise by about 78,000 barrels per day in August 2022, to reach 5.445 million barrels per day, which may be a new record.The Eagle Ford Basin production is expected to rise by about 25,000 barrels per day, bringing the total to 1.205 million barrels per day, according to the report, the details of which were followed by the Energy Research Unit.Shale oil production in the Bakken Basin is expected to rise to 1.192 million barrels per day, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day from the current July level.The Energy Information Administration expects supplies from the Niobrara, Anadarko and Appalachia basins to rise by 6, 5 and 3 thousand barrels per day, respectively.Natural gas production from shale basins is expected to rise to 93.019 billion cubic feet per day in August, compared to an expected level for June of 92.271 billion cubic feet per day.The Energy Information Administration expects Heinsville Basin production to rise by 217 million cubic feet per day, to a total of 15.478 billion cubic feet per day, according to the report seen by the Energy Research Unit.
Oil output in biggest US shale oil basin predicted to rise in August to highest on record --Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest US shale oil basin, is due to rise 78,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.445 million bpd in August, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday. Total output in the major US shale oil basins will rise 136,000 bpd to 9.068 million bpd in August, the highest since March 2020, EIA projected. In the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, EIA projected oil output will rise 19,000 bpd to 1.192 million bpd in August, the most since December 2020. In the Eagle Ford in South Texas, output will rise 25,000 bpd to 1.205 million bpd in August, the highest since April 2020. Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase 0.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a record 93.0 bcfd in August, EIA forecast. In the biggest shale gas basin, EIA said, output in Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia will rise to 35.3 bcfd in August, the highest since hitting a record 36.0 bcfd in December 2021. Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will also rise to record highs of 20.5 bcfd and 15.5 bcfd in August, respectively. But productivity in the biggest oil and gas basins has declined every month since setting records of new oil well production per rig of 1,545 bpd in December 2020 in the Permian, and new gas well production per rig of 33.3 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in March 2021 in Appalachia. In August, EIA expects new oil well production per rig will drop to 1,107 bpd in the Permian, the lowest since August 2020, and new gas well production per rig will drop to 27.6 mmcfd in Appalachia, the lowest since August 2020. EIA said producers drilled 938 wells, the most since March 2020, and completed 964, the most since October 2021, in the biggest shale basins in June. That left total drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells down 26 to 4,245, the lowest since at least December 2013, according to EIA data going back that far. The number of DUCs available has fallen for 24 consecutive months.
Biden Pursues More Foreign Oil Despite Invite from U.S. Producers - Prior to heading to Saudi Arabia, the U.S. energy industry invited President Joe Biden to visit American energy sites.The Texas Oil and Gas Association, Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association, and over 25 U.S. energy associations invited Biden and his cabinet members to visit U.S. energy facilities throughout the U.S.The Texas groups represent high-skilled workers in a state that if it were its own country would be the world’s third largest producer of natural gas and fourth largest producer of oil. Texas producers are leading the U.S. in crude production in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, recognizing that “energy is the cornerstone of security and prosperity,” Todd Staples, president of TXOGA, said. Nationwide, the groups represent 11 million workers in an industry that propelled the U.S. to lead the world in crude production in 2019. From cancelling federal land and offshore leasing permits, to increased regulation and proposed taxes, to depleting the Strategic Oil Reserves, to turning to foreign oil production, Biden has done everything to hamper domestic oil production, those in the industry contend. While in Saudi Arabia, Biden is continuing his efforts to encourage members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to expand output.Still, TIPRO President Ed Longanecker told The Center Square, “There are continued efforts to work with the Biden Administration to prioritize and support domestic oil and natural gas production to address global supply shortages, inflation and an escalating energy crisis in Europe.”The groups wrote Biden a letter, urging him to “consider taking another look at made-in-America energy” before he left for the Middle East. They said they’d “be honored to show you how our industry is involved in every step of the energy process, from fuel pumps to critical product delivery infrastructure to production zones across our vast nation.”But they didn’t hear back.Instead, Biden wrote an op-ed published by The Washington Post justifying his trip. “As president, it is my job to keep our country strong and secure,” he wrote. “We have to counter Russia’s aggression, put ourselves in the best possible position to outcompete China, and work for greater stability in a consequential region of the world.“To do these things, we have to engage directly with countries that can impact those outcomes. Saudi Arabia is one
Halliburton Warns Frack Growth "Almost Impossible" This Year - American shale drillers have shown how quickly they can boost oil production over the years. But after several years of divestment and decarbonization, the days of fracking roaring back to life are over. Halliburton Co.'s CEO Jeff Miller confirmed this to analysts during a conference call Tuesday. He said the oilfield equipment market is so tight that oil explorers are already discussing 2023 projects. Miller said oil companies don't have enough fracking equipment for newly leased wells this year. He said diesel-powered and electric equipment are in short supply, "making it almost impossible to add incremental capacity this year." This development is another setback for the Biden administration's efforts to increase US oil production to ease the worst inflation in forty years ahead of the midterm elections in November. A similar message was conveyed by Exxon Mobil, whose CEO said that global oil markets might remain tight for another three to five years primarily because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.Chief executive Darren Woods said it'll take time for oil firms to "catch up" on the investments needed to ensure enough supply.Back to the shale patch, where even if exploration companies were to obtain fracking equipment for drilling new or existing wells, the frack sand used to blast through shale rocks is in short supply across Texas.Russell Hardy, the CEO of the world's largest independent oil merchant, Vitol, also believes oil prices will remain high because the market can't see where additional supply is coming from to balance demand. Meanwhile, Brent oil prices rose to $106 on Tuesday after President Biden returned from Saudi Arabia without an agreement on increasing output from OPEC+. "The message is that it is OPEC+ that makes the oil supply decision, and the cartel isn't remotely interested in what Biden is trying to achieve," said Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at Avatrade.Neither US shale nor OPEC+ appears to be increasing output in the immediate future for their own respective reasons, indicating tight crude supplies will keep energy prices elevated and inflation high. All the Biden administration can hope for now is a recession to curb consumer demand to rebalance markets.
Oil And Natural Gas Industry Taxes Power Texas Record Surplus -Texas is expecting a record surplus of nearly $27 billion for the 2022-23 biennium, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar says, mostly due to the record amount of taxes the Texas oil and natural gas industry contributed. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar revised the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) upward, increasing his November estimate of General Revenue-related (GR-R) funds available for certification by $13.75 billion. In a letter to state leadership, Hegar said the state will have $149.07 billion in GR-R funds available for general-purpose spending for the 2022-23 biennium, resulting in a projected fiscal 2023 ending balance of $26.95 billion, an increase of $14.95 billion from the November projected balance. The ending balance does not account for any 2022-23 supplemental appropriations the Legislature may make. “This revised estimate includes a net decrease in projected GR-R spending of $1.5 billion yet is mostly driven by tax revenues that rebounded strongly in recent months after being suppressed by the pandemic in the previous biennium,” Hegar said. “In fact, many tax revenue categories reached their highest collections on record, and this fiscal year has experienced the largest one-year increase in total tax collection, as compared with the prior fiscal year, in Texas history. This is especially true of state sales taxes, where monthly collections for each of the last 15 months exceeded $3 billion and averaged $3.5 billion. “Severance taxes performed extremely well due to elevated oil and gas prices caused by energy market volatility. This is due in part to a strong global economic recovery coupled with the war in Ukraine and a period of limited investment in fossil fuel production and refining capacity. It is important to realize that inflation is a significant contributing factor to why we have seen record tax collections in sales tax and other revenues over the last year.
Report: Texas oil and gas should temper job-creation claims - Texas oil and gas employment may not rebound to pre-COVID levels. Ever. That’s according to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. It also says the industry is not the job creator that many believe it is. At ground zero of Texas oil and gas employment — the Permian Basin — industry executives are telling a different story.Between September 2019 and September 2020, oil and gas extraction and affiliated industries in Texas shed about 20% of their workforce. And while there’s been a hiring uptick over the past few months, the industry isn’t back to pre-COVID numbers.“We’re only about halfway there as far as the recovery goes,” said Trey Cowan, who wrote the report for the IEEFA. “And it looks like we’re starting to plateau.” Cowan said there’s a number of reasons for the slow pace of hiring. One is that operators say they can’t find people who are healthy enough to work on a rig and can pass a drug test. Energy Workforce & Technology Council, an industry trade group, blames anti-fossil fuel rhetoric. CEO Leslie Beyer said in an email that “continued vilification of the industry has a negative impact on recruiting, especially with younger workers.”But it could be efficiency that’s leading to fewer jobs in places like the Permian Basin.“They’re getting more oil out of the ground, with fewer people having to work for it,”
Biden Crackdown On Permian Pollution To Trim Crude Output - The Biden administration’s plan to crack down on smog in the oil-rich Permian Basin threatens to curb crude production while gasoline prices are near record highs and energy scarcity grips the globe, the industry warned Thursday. Oil’s lobbying heavyweights are appealing directly to top White House officials to slam the brakes on the plan, arguing that any move to redesignate drilling hotbeds in Texas and New Mexico as violating ozone air quality standards poses such high economic risks it should be subject to greater analysis and public scrutiny. The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to cut smog raises “the potential for increased operating expenses, decreased federal leasing revenues, permitting delays and decreased oil and natural gas production in the nation’s most productive basin,” the groups said in a letter to leaders of the White House Office of Management and Budget and its regulatory affairs office. The missive was sent Thursday by the American Petroleum Institute, American Exploration and Production Council, Texas Oil and Gas Association and other groups, who have spent weeks huddling over the potential consequences of the ozone plan since it was first outlined in a public notice last month. The move by the EPA to consider giving the Permian a so-called non-attainment designation was encouraged by conservationists who say they are alarmed by indications ground-level ozone has surged along with oil and gas development. Ozone, which is the key ingredient of smog, is formed when volatile organic compounds and other air pollution that escapes smokestacks, tailpipes and oil wells reacts with sunlight. Even at low levels, it can worsen asthma, emphysema, and other respiratory illnesses. While Texas does not have monitors taking ozone readings on its side of the Permian, those just over the border in New Mexico’s Eddy and Lea counties have recorded average ground-level ozone exceeding the 2015 federal standard of 70 parts per billion several years running. If the region is deemed in violation, state regulators would have three years to develop plans for lowering ozone levels, including by preventing new industrial facilities from worsening air quality and ensuring existing sites deploy technology to keep pollution at bay. “A non-attainment designation would ensure that people and communities throughout the Permian Basin no longer suffer the harmful and costly effects of smog,” grassroots environmental and public health groups said in a July 12 letter to President Joe Biden. The oil groups argue that the clampdown could result in existing facilities being forced to shut down and “could have the unintended consequence of slowing the approval of oil and natural gas infrastructure designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the basin.” The potential economic impacts are so severe, they contend, the White House should consider the proposal a “significant regulatory action,” a designation that triggers more stringent review, and the EPA should open it up for public comment.
Methane Is Leaking Over Native Grounds. Citizen Scientists Are Fighting Back. - From behind her FLIR GF320 infrared camera, Kendra Pinto sees plumes of purple smoke otherwise invisible to the naked eye. They’re full of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and they’re wafting out of an oil tank in New Mexico’s San Juan Basin. Pinto, a member of the DinĂ© (Navajo) community and field advocate with environmental group Earthworks, relies on this device in her fight to keep her community’s air clean. She lives in the Eastern Agency of the Navajo Nation, home to booming oil and gas production. “When I walk outside, I can’t just think about fresh air. I’m thinking about the VOCs. I’m thinking about the methane that I’m breathing in, because I know what’s out there,” Pinto said. “I see it all the time.” She’s one of countless citizen scientists across the country who are tracking and reporting environmental harms committed by the oil and gas industry to regulators. And here there are many: The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) estimates that each year, New Mexico’s oil and gas companies emit more than 1.1 million metric tons of methane, a greenhouse gas around 86 times more potent in its warming potential than carbon dioxide over a twenty year period. Much of this comes from wasted natural gas -– $271 million of it in this state alone, according to the EDF. It leaks out of faulty equipment and is intentionally expelled through the processes of venting and flaring, in which excess, unrefined natural gas is released or burned from oil wells and refineries to eliminate waste or reduce pressure buildups. This is bad for the planet—high volumes of methane released into the atmosphere accelerate the pace of the climate crisis. It’s also bad for the people who live around it who are exposed to the pollutants that typically come along withmethane emissions, like benzene, a carcinogen, and PM2.5 and PM10 — particulate matter small enough to get lodged deep in the lungs. Pinto said her neighbors experience disproportionately high rates of headaches, nosebleeds, allergies and respiratory issues, like sinus and throat discomfort. “I think the scariest thing about methane is it’s odorless,” Pinto said. “It’s a silent killer. And if my neighbors are breathing it in, that’s worrisome.”
US Oil, Gas Trump Renewable Energy in Public Land Leasing, Report Shows – Bloomberg - Despite President Joe Biden’s campaign vow to propel a “clean energy revolution,” the federal government continues to prioritize oil development over renewable projects on US public lands, a new report finds.The analysis by the left-leaning Center for American Progress shows that, in western states, significantly more public land is available for oil and gas leasing than for renewables development. That’s true even in areas that are better suited for solar, wind and geothermal projects than for drilling — a default position that gives fossil-fuel development a leg up over cleaner energy sources, according to Jenny Rowland-Shea, deputy director of the center’s public lands program.
How Manchin wobble may hit Biden's public land oil strategy - After Sen. Joe Manchin sent climate negotiations into chaos on Capitol Hill last week, the pressure is on President Joe Biden to take his own concrete steps to halt global warming, like toughening his stance on drilling for oil on public lands.The West Virginia Democrat waffled ahead of the weekend on whether he will support climate spending in ongoing negotiations over the reconciliation package that Democrats are trying to get passed ahead of the midterm elections — when the GOP is predicted to gain spots in Congress. He blamed inflation for his position.The political jockeying puts in doubt a legislative answer to Biden’s critical climate ambitions, such as the $300 billion in clean energy tax credits on the table in recent negotiations.But a slammed door in the Senate could also free the White House from having to appease Manchin, who’s made no secret from his bully pulpit as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee of his frustration with the White House’s response to high gas pump prices and its slow walking of federal oil and gas leasing.“If the White House has been modulating its oil and gas policy in recent months to woo Manchin’s support for clean energy incentives, then his latest defection could augment a post-election green pivot, including further strictures on federal lands,” said ClearView Energy Partners LLC in a client note Friday.Last week, The Washington Post reported the White House was considering Manchin as it decided whether to approve a controversial oil drilling project in the Arctic and future drilling access in federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico.But by Thursday night, Manchin had quashed hopes of major climate spending. He pivoted again the next day by saying he might be open to talking about a deal in September — if the country’s inflation picture looked better (Greenwire, July 15).“I can’t make that decision basically on taxes of any type and also on the energy and climate because it takes the taxes to pay for the investment in the clean technology that I’m in favor of,” he said in a recent interview with West Virginia’s MetroNews. “I’m not going to do something and overreach that causes more problems.”The stance has sparked controversy on the political left, with prominent progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) accusing Manchin of sabotaging climate talks because he is beholden to fossil fuel companies. “We continue to talk to Manchin like he was serious. He was not. This is a guy who is a major recipient of fossil fuel money,” Sanders said
Cities: Report that Colorado methane pollution is down by half is wrong - Air pollution from oil and gas operations is on the wane, the industry says. But communities along the Front Range — with their own air monitors — counter that they are finding repeated spikes of methane and other pollutants. “Ground-level methane monitoring shows no decline in levels,” Cindy Copeland, an air and climate policy advisor for Boulder County, told a Colorado Air Quality Control Commission hearing Thursday. In Broomfield, air monitors recorded a dozen spikes where ambient benzene levels were estimated to have exceeded a 9 parts per billion health standard in the fourth quarter of 2021 — in one instance the level reached 223 ppb. Broomfield identified the peaks as coming during drilling, hydrofracturing, or fracking, and tubing wells — the so-called preproduction phase, Mindy Olkjer, the city’s oil and gas program manager told the commission. The air commission adopted new regulations in 2020 to cut emissions from the preproduction phase of oil and gas operations. What the spikes and eddies in emissions means for public health and safety is still undetermined. In May, two industry groups — the Colorado Oil and Gas Association and API-Colorado — made a presentation to the air commission with data showing that between 2013 and 2019 methane levels had decreased 52% and at the monitor in Platteville operated by the state, ethane concentrations were down 65%. The Platteville Atmospheric Observatory is about 5.5 miles southeast of Platteville, in Weld County, the most actively drilled county in the state. On Thursday the industry groups’ findings were challenged by air quality officials from Longmont, Erie, Broomfield and Boulder County, where some of the drilling closest to neighborhoods has taken place. The industry methane measurements were done by satellite for a large section of the Front Range, but the monitors located in communities — the Erie monitor is located next to the baseball field at the town’s community center — offer some “ground truthing,” Copeland said. The Platteville monitor, the local air officials also argued, is no longer representative since the area has already been drilled and operators have moved to new locations.
How oil companies endlessly avoid cleanup costs — High Country News – Jackson County, Colorado, is not known for oil and gas production. But there is some energy development here, including 110 wells on federal public land. K.P. Kauffman, an oil and gas operator with a history of environmental violations, acquired the wells in 2018 from a company called Bonanza Creek. They were not choice assets. At the time, the wells averaged around 32 years old — the oldest were over 70 — and their cumulative production had declined annually since 2011, according to state oil and gas data. About 60% were still actively producing. By 2017, the year before the sale, they were averaging less than two barrels of oil (BOE) per day. Below two BOE per day, a generally accepted industry standard, wells are often considered to not be economically viable. Bonanza was aware of this decline. In its 2014 year-end report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it reported a stark drop in the wells’ value. The company’s estimate of their worth in a sale had fallen to zero dollars. Even so, Bonanza decided to sell. In two financial statements submitted to the SEC in 2015, it stated its intention to get rid of its Jackson County assets. For whatever reason, though, the sale did not take place right away. In early 2017, Bonanza declared bankruptcy. After some restructuring, it re-emerged a few months later, and, the next year, successfully sold the 110 wells for $100,000 and “full release of all current and future obligations” — meaning the legal responsibility to plug the wells. For 110 wells, $100,000 isn’t much. By comparison, drilling a single new, highly productive fracked well in Colorado could cost about $6 million today, according to an analysis of market data by Williams-Derry. “At no point in the process were companies asked to set aside the true cost for cleaning up these wells.” Oil infrastructure in Jackson County, Colorado. In 2018, K.P. Kauffman acquired 110 wells on federal public land in the county, many low-producing. These wells would cost at least $9.6 million to clean up. Since the sale K.P. Kauffman has not plugged any of the wells, which have showed declining net production every year, according to Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) data, including a 19% production drop the year after the transaction. By 2021, the wells averaged a scant 0.37 BOE per day. K.P. Kauffman is unlikely to be making much money, according to a cash-flow analysis by Dwayne Purvis, a petroleum engineer for more than 25 years. “I estimate that these wells were not profitable to operate under normal operating standards,” he said. “An operator might be able to make money on them, but it would require spending little on items like supervision, preventative maintenance and repair.” So, what did each party see in the deal? For Bonanza, the sale coincided with a period of mergers, culminating in a consolidation with other Colorado drillers into a new company, Civitas Resources, now one of the state’s largest oil companies. The Jackson County wells had been in decline for years, so Bonanza got rid of assets with small value for a small return, or, as the company put it in SEC filings, “minimal net proceeds.” Bonanza removed the wells from its books, along with, crucially, the requirement that it pay to plug them someday. As for K.P. Kauffman, it got wells that are still producing oil, even in minor quantities. It got something that will turn a profit in the short-term. In response to a list of questions, a company spokesperson told High Country News: “Our own investigation of these assets at the time of the transfer makes us confident in their value.” It’s possible that K.P. Kauffman believed it could operate the wells more cheaply — thus profitably — than Bonanza. But even if that were true, Purvis said that, once plugging costs are included, he would consider them a “net liability.” “Even assuming reduced operating costs at the time of transfer, there was no viable scenario for the wells to generate enough profit in the future to pay for their plugging,” he said. This appears to be part of K.P. Kauffman’s wider strategy: Low-producing wells make up a significant slice of the company’s more than 1,200 Colorado wells. State data from 2021 shows that 84% of its wells — both active and inactive — produced less than two BOE per day. It’s a business model that appears to rely on not factoring in the true cost of plugging those wells.
Colorado county shuts down crypto operations at oil and gas sites - To the untrained eye, the nondescript boxes and containers scattered around some oil and gas wells in Colorado look a lot like the equipment typically found at a well pad — boxy, utilitarian and industrial. But inside these particular containers, a kind of otherwordly magic is happening. Dozens of high-powered computers quietly crunch complex math problems in an act of cryptocurrency “mining,” whereby virtual currencies like bitcoin are created and added to a kind of worldwide cryptocurrency ledger. A bitcoin miner is essentially in a race with others to solve these math problems — and the winner gets bitcoins as a prize for their efforts. The mobile data center on wheels is powered by a generator that whips up electricity using natural gas pulled up from the ground — gas that often has nowhere else to go but into the atmosphere. In Adams County, this novel mashup of old-school legacy fossil-fuel extraction and futuristic digital-currency creation is a bit too new — at least for now. County officials in May issued a cease-and-desist order, saying the arrangement — “a trailer full of computers powered directly by a producing well” — is unlike any land use Adams County has seen before. The county followed up last week with a lawsuit against an oil and gas producer that it claims has not complied with its order to shut down crypto mining operations in the oil patch. Adams County, according to community and economic development director Jenni Hall, first needs to create rules around the practice before allowing it to resume. “These are remote areas with a lot of dry grassland around them,” Hall said. “We also know they are running generators, which have emissions and make noise.” Adams County, she said, simply doesn’t have language in its land use code that speaks to cryptocurrency mining at the wellhead.
Water protector beats bogus charge, case raises questions about biased law enforcement --A District Court Judge in Aitkin County dismissed charges against water protector Shanai Matteson Thursday morning, on day two of her trial. Matteson was charged with “aiding and abetting” trespassing on Enbridge right of way during Line 3’s construction.The jury had been selected. It had heard from two prosecution witnesses. Before calling any defense witnesses, and before the case went to the jury, Matteson’s attorney Jordan Kushner moved to have it dismissed.Judge Leslie Mae Metzen gave it the heave ho.Matteson faced “bogus charges,” said Kushner, a Twin Cities-based private civil rights attorney. The state couldn’t back them up.“The prosecution failed in its attempt to criminalize Shanai’s use of free speech and to create guilt by association,” he said.It’s an embarrassing loss for the Aitkin County Sheriff’s Office and prosecutors who brought the charges. It’s just the latest example of the disparate justice systems faced by water protectors compared to Enbridge.While Minnesota’s regulatory agencies provided very lax oversight of Line 3 construction, Minnesota law enforcement came down hard on water protectors.(More background here.) The case “should never have been brought in the first place,” Matteson said in a statement released on her behalf.Matteson is a fifth-generation resident of Palisade (in Aitkin County) and a cultural organizer, artist and mother of two young children. She faced up to one year in jail and thousands of dollars in fines, if convicted.Matteson’s crime was speaking to a group of people gathered at the Water Protector Welcome Center in Aitkin County on Jan. 9, 2021 for about 90 seconds.“We are looking for people who might be in a position to potentially get arrested, if that’s what it comes to today,” she told the crowd. “… I hope some of you will consider that.”Then she offered information on jail support for those who might choose to get arrested.
Study: Enbridge Line 3 generated billions in economic impact - Since replacement of Enbridge's Line 3 pipeline began in 2017, a significant increase in economic activity has been experienced across the region, a recent economic impact study found.The study was commissioned by Area Partnership for Economic Expansion, a private-sector-led business development engine for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The study did not consider the social or environmental impacts of the project; its purpose was to solely estimate the economic impacts of replacing three segments of Line 3.This included the mainline which runs through Kittson, Marshall, Pennington, Red Lake, Polk, Clearwater, Beltrami, Hubbard, Wadena, Cass, Crow Wing, Itasca, Aitkin, Carlton and Saint Louis counties; Segment 18 in Douglas County in Wisconsin; and the Superior terminal building in Superior, Wisconsin.“Large-scale industrial projects are critical to continued growth and success throughout not just the APEX region, but also the entire state of Minnesota,” APEX board chair Lisa Bodine said during a Zoom press conference. “The project surpassed all economic impact projections and created family-sustaining jobs for many Minnesotans. APEX is proud to advocate for these types of projects in our region because we understand the economic, environmental and social benefits will be felt for decades to come.”
North Dakota oil production bounces back in May, but industry needs more workers - North Dakota oil production bounced back in May after getting hammered the previous month by ugly weather. The state pumped out 1.06 million barrels of oil a day, up 17% from April when back-to-back blizzards hit North Dakota. "We have almost recovered what we lost in April," Lynn Helms, North Dakota's minerals director, told reporters Tuesday. In May, North Dakota still was running below its March output of 1.12 million barrels per day. The 20% production decline from March to April was one of the worst month-to-month drops in state history. Oil prices in May averaged more than $100 a barrel, meaning North Dakota oil tax collections remain healthy. West Texas Intermediate — the benchmark U.S. crude price — closed around $103 Tuesday. North Dakota's drill rig count, a harbinger of future oil production, currently stands at 42, the same as in June, but ahead of May's tally of 40 and April's 38. The state still is short of the drilling activity it would need to grow production at a 2% annual rate. Helms said the optimal number of rigs for that output target is 50 to 55. At that level of production, about 25 fracking crews — who pump oil from the ground after wells have been drilled — would be needed. Currently, there are 18 crews, and the oil companies are struggling to find more workers, Helms said. Indeed, while inflation has been at 40-year high, the nation's unemployment rate of 3.6% in June is near an all-time low. "In the absence of a nationwide recession, which would send a lot of unemployed people to North Dakota, we will have to grow our own workforce," Helms said.
Keystone Force Majeure Cuts Oil Flows To U.S. - TC Energy, the operator of the Keystone Pipeline, declared force majeure on Monday following a power outage in South Dakota, which reduced the flows on the link carrying crude from Canada to the U.S.TC Energy said in a statement late on Monday that it was made aware of a non-operational incident resulting from third-party damage to the power supply to a facility on the Keystone Pipeline System near Huron, South Dakota. The system continues to operate safely, but it is operating at a reduced rate due to damage to the third-party power utility.“Initial damage assessments have been completed with no material impact to TC Energy owned facilities,” the company said.As a result of the power outage, TC Energy declared force majeure on the Keystone Pipeline, but did not provide a timeline for restoring crude flows to full capacity. “Repairs are being undertaken and we are working to restore full service as soon as possible. A timeline for full-service restoration is not available at this time,” the company said.The 2,687-mile Keystone Pipeline System plays a key role in connecting Alberta’s crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets in Illinois, Oklahoma, and Texas, as well as connecting U.S. crude oil supplies from the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub to refining markets in the U.S. Gulf Coast through the Marketlink Pipeline System.The reduced flows of crude from Canada to the United States comes days after U.S. President Joe Biden returned from his trip to the Middle Eastern without receiving a specific commitment from the top OPEC producers to boost oil supply in the near term.Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the U.S. continued to fall for a fifth consecutive week, to a national average of $4.51 per gallon as of July 18, according to data compiled by fuel-savings app GasBuddy.
Keystone oil pipeline capacity may be restored next week: company source - The Keystone oil pipeline could return to full capacity next week if the necessary repairs to an electric substation are completed without any major supply chain disruptions for replacement parts, according to a company source. The 590,000 b/d crude artery from Canada to the US has operated at a reduced capacity since July 17 after vandalism damaged a transformer at an electric substation in rural South Dakota that solely services the TC Energy flagship oil pipeline. TC Energy has declined to offer any timeline for a return to full capacity. The company declared force majeure on the pipeline network July 18 and has continued operating at a reduced, but unspecified, capacity. "Our system continues to operate safely at a reduced rate as a result of the incident," the company said in a July 20 statement. "We are unable to further discuss operations as it involves commercially sensitive information. Currently, there is no timeline for completion of repairs and restoration of power service." East River Electric Power Cooperative, which operates the Carpenter Substation in Beadle County, said a criminal investigation is underway. East River said the damaged transformer was leaking mineral oil when the problem was detected. "Our crews are working as fast as they can, but I don't have a good timeline at this time," East River spokesperson Chris Studer said July 20. One market source said that, depending on the length of the outage, this could push differentials for crude oil in Western Canada lower, and lead to significant storage builds as the market depends heavily on Keystone to move crude out of the region. However, "If it is minor and back up soon ... it will be a non-impact event," the source said. The pipeline runs from Hardisty, Alberta, through North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska, where it splits with one leg moving crude east through Missouri for deliveries into Patoka, Illinois, and the other moving south to Cushing, Oklahoma, and then onto Houston. Values for heavy sour Western Canadian Select crude have come under pressure already in recent weeks as supply of heavier, sour grades along the US have increased following the release of barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Because crude oil takeaway capacity leaving Canada already is tight, said AJ O'Donnell, product team director for East Daley Capital, there are only a few alternate ways to move the displaced crude oil if Keystone remains at a lower capacity for longer. Enbridge's Mainline network into the US potentially could accommodate another 150,000-200,000 b/d in additional volumes into the US, O'Donnell said, and Enbridge's Express Pipeline to Guernsey, Wyoming, could handle maybe 30,000 b/d. However, there are limited ways to move crude beyond the Guernsey hub. Otherwise, more expensive crude-by-rail exports are the fallback option for shipping the heavy barrels of Canadian crude, he said.
New map shows where fracking-induced earthquakes could hit in Canada -Scientists from the University of Waterloo have developed a map showing which regions and population centers of Western Canada are likely to experience earthquakes induced by underground energy extraction. Hydraulic fracturing is used to produce cracks in the rock formation to enhance energy extraction from geothermal and unconventional resources. This process is typically accompanied by seismicity, or induced earthquakes, because injection changes pore pressures and temperatures, facilitating slippage of fractures and faults. "We are trying to better understand and therefore better predict the phenomenon of induced seismicity during subsurface engineering processes," said Maurice Dusseault, a professor of engineering geology at Waterloo. "Using Western Canada's Montney Formation as a case study is important as the 130,000 km2 area of western Alberta and northeast British Columbia is home to some of the world's largest petroleum and natural gas reserves." The report concluded induced earthquakes in this region continue to threaten communities that have already experienced of the largest fracking-caused earthquakes reported worldwide. This includes a magnitude 4.6 near Fort St. John, British Columbia on November 29, 2018, and a magnitude 4.1 near Fox Creek, Alberta on January 12, 2015. "The majority of injection-induced seismicity occurred near Fort St. John, British Columbia—close to the border of Alberta," said Ali Yaghoubi, the study's lead author and Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Waterloo. "When I compare the seismicity map with the population density map of Canada, some earthquake-prone areas are indeed populated. However, the majority of seismogenic areas aren't populated." They also found that the area south of Grande Prairie, Alberta is far less prone to significant levels of induced seismicity, despite the fact that the Montney and Duverney formations in the region have been subjected to more than 700 multistage hydraulic fracturing operations. "This is particularly important considering that the area is home to Alberta's No.1 geothermal project," said Yaghoubi. Their map can serve as a baseline for future fluid injection projects or underground energy extraction in the region including wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracture stimulation, carbon sequestration, as well as geothermal energy extraction. The study, "Injection-induced fault slip assessment in Montney Formation in Western Canada," was recently published in the academic journal Scientific Reports.
Oil exploration picking up as drillers shrug off recession threat — Schlumberger said annual sales will rise the most in 11 years as concern over inadequate energy supplies outweighs recessionary fears among major oil explorers. Citing the biggest jump in demand for its services in more than a decade, the world’s biggest oilfield contractor sees sales reaching at least $27 billion this year, an 18% increase from 2021. Schlumberger shares climbed more than 8% after Chief Executive Officer Olivier Le Peuch predicted the uptrend in crude drilling is immune from economic contraction and has years to run. The rosy outlook for a sector recently battered by back-to-back oil busts capped a week of profit reports that included Halliburton Co.’s revelation that it’s nearly sold out of gear in the North American market and already is fielding inquiries from drillers looking ahead to 2023. “The multiyear upcycle continues to gain momentum with upstream activity and service pricing steadily increasing both internationally and in North America, resulting in a strengthened outlook for Schlumberger,” Le Peuch said in a statement Friday. “We are witnessing a decoupling of upstream from near-term demand volatility, resulting in resilient global oil and gas activity growth in 2022 and beyond.” Oil explorers are expanding the search for crude on land and at sea in almost every corner of the globe. In the sector’s most bullish forecast yet, Schlumberger reinforced its view from three months ago when it alluded to the heady days of 2008, when crude prices ascended to dizzying heights and oilfield contractors posted some of their best results in history. “We believe the accelerating international upcycle not only has multiple years to run, but will also unfold even if crude prices pull back modestly,” Scott Gruber, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a note to clients. Spending by oil companies around the world is expected to grow 22% this year to $450 billion, according to James West, an analyst at Evercore ISI. That would rank 2022 as the fifth-biggest annual expansion in data going back to 1985.9:48 PM
Activists urge oil spill contingency overhaul - Environmental activists yesterday urged the Government to upgrade the country’s oil spill contingency plan following the 30,000-gallon Exuma leak, adding that The Bahamas must move from “a panicked” to a controlled response. Rashema Ingraham, Waterkeepers Bahamas executive director, told Tribune Business the last time she could recall revisions being made to the plan was 2011 - more than a decade ago - despite the movement of petroleum-based products through the country’s shipping lanes on an almost daily basis. While a “ruptured hose” was being blamed for diesel fuel leaking into waters off Georgetown, she added that issues of liability and who is responsible for environmental clean-up and the associated costs need to be better defined in Bahamian laws and regulations. Multiple Cabinet ministers and government officials raced to Exuma yesterday to assess the oil spill and its impact, but Ms Ingraham argued that a better response would be to ensure the necessary equipment to contain then remediate the incident was already in The Bahamas with trained personnel able to use it effectively. “The last oil spill contingency plan revision was in 2011. That’s been some time now, and that really needs to be given some attention sooner rather than later because we have so many petroleum products moving through our waterways on a regular basis,” Ms Ingraham told this newspaper. “Just think about everything that has happened between that timeframe and now. “This really brings to the forefront for the Prime Minister and his Cabinet to again look at oil industry reform, and not only because we have experience with oil drilling and marine and terrestrial spills in The Bahamas.” Those spills include the loss of 558,000 barrels of oil when the tank roofs at Equinor’s South Riding Point storage terminal in Grand Bahama were compromised when Hurricane Dorian struck the island in early September 2019. “It definitely needs upgrading,” Ms Ingraham said of The Bahamas’ plan for dealing with major oil spills, “and it also needs to point who should be responsible for paying for the spill. It definitely should not be the Government of The Bahamas. The Government should look at putting a levy in place on those moving oil through the country to make them more responsible for their transhipment.” Besides identifying who is liable for clean-up, remediation and the associated cost, she added that The Bahamas needs to completely overhaul how it reacts to oil spills. “We need to move away from the panicked response to these situations to one where we have a more controlled response,” Ms Ingraham told Tribune Business. “This is so we know, based on the spill and the response, what type of resources need to be executed right away. Having men in suits rush over to look at a spill is not the right response. The right response is to have the equipment in place to contain the spill initially, and that equipment needs to be in country.” Other environmental activists yesterday argued that the Exuma spill strengthens the case for banning oil exploration and drilling in Bahamian waters, although there is no link at all between the latter activity and what happened in Georgetown. Joe Darville, Save the Bays’ chairman, said the leak of diesel fuel destined for Bahamas Power & Light (BPL) was “another warning” given the potential consequences for Exuma’s “pristine” waters and environment - the very assets that attract the tourists and homeowners which drive the island’s economy. “It’s a catastrophic disaster because, similar to Equinor, there is no contingency plan available,” he argued. It will be up to Mother Nature to deal with this catastrophic event. “It’s another event to show we have no business thinking about drilling for oil in our waters. It would be a total disaster.”
Top Energy Regulator Warns Germany Won't Survive Winter Without Russian NatGas - Germany is grappling with its worst energy shortage in decades as it might not meet the threshold of adequate natural gas reserves before winter. Germany's national Sunday newspaper Bild am Sonntag interviewed Klaus Muller, head of the Federal Network Agency, the government regulator of electricity, gas, telecommunications, post, and railway markets, who warned NatGas inventories are "nearly 65% full" and "it's better than in the previous weeks," though not enough to "go through the winter without Russian gas."The German government sets a yearly target of 90% by November for NatGas inventories, and with nearly 3.5 months until the target date, injections have turned to withdraws due to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline scheduled maintenance and a menacing heatwave that has bolstered electricity demand. Muller said Nord Stream's 10-day scheduled maintenance ends July 21 or this coming Thursday. The energy situation could worsen if Russian state-controlled natgas exporter Gazprom doesn't resume deliveries or continues to restrict flows. When asked how long until energy prices decrease, Muller said, "there hasn't been any significant price surge this week, even though the Nord Stream 1 was shut off." He said this could signify that "markets have already internalized the loss of Russian gas supplies, and we've reached a gas price plateau."Berlin triggered the second stage of its national NatGas emergency plan last month -- the next phase is rationing NatGas. Muller said there is a rising probability of rationing, which would wreak havoc on the economy and supply chains.Germany also receives NatGas from Belgium, Norway, and the Netherlands, but the plunge in Russian supplies indicates Germany is behind on filling up its storage facilities to create reserves for winter. Dutch front-month gas, the European benchmark, traded around 163 euros per megawatt-hour last week.
EU signs new gas deal as fears grow over Russian supplies cutoff — The EU signed a new gas deal with Azerbaijan on Monday, as officials scramble to secure future supplies amid growing fears about a Russian cutoff.European officials have been preparing for a potential complete shutdown of gas supplies from Russia in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Russia has for several years been Europe's most important source of natural gas, but there's now a firm push by Brussels to reverse this.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Europe's energy chief, Kadri Simson, were in Azerbaijan on Monday to finalize the deal. In a statement, the commission said Azerbaijan had committed to delivering at least 20 billion cubic meters to the EU annually by 2027.Azerbaijan was already on track to increase it deliveries to the region. According to the commission, gas supply from the country will increase from 8.1 billion cubic meters in 2021 to an expected 12 billion cubic meters this year."Amid Russia's continued weaponization of its energy supplies, diversification of our energy imports is a top priority for the EU," the European Commission said in a statement Friday ahead of the trip.Russia has denied it is using gas as a weapon against the West, however supplies have fallen by more than 60% in recent weeks. In addition, the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline — a crucial transit point of Russian gas to Germany and beyond — for maintenance work has added to concerns that Moscow could potentially end its supplies of gas to the bloc altogether. Azerbaijan, which borders Georgia, Turkey, Armenia, Russia, Iran and the Caspian Sea, started exporting natural gas to Europe via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline at the end of 2020. At the time, Azerbaijan said it planned to send 10 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe every year, mostly to Italy, but also to Greece and Bulgaria.
Russia’s Gazprom declares force majeure on some gas supplies to Europe -Russia’s Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer, according to the letter from Gazprom dated July 14 and seen by Reuters on Monday. The letter said Gazprom, which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, could not fulfil its supply obligations owing to “extraordinary” circumstances outside its control. It said the force majeure measure, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, was effective from deliveries starting from June 14. A trading source said the letter concerned supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a major supply route to Germany and beyond. Gazprom had no immediate comment. The measure will likely escalate tensions between Russia and the West over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, action Moscow calls a “special military operation.” The European Union, which has imposed sanctions on Moscow, aims to stop using Russian fossil fuels by 2027 but wants to supplies to continue for now as it shifts away from Russian supplies. Russian gas supplies have dropped via major routes, including via Ukraine and Belarus and through Nord Stream 1 under the Baltic Sea. Nord Stream 1 is currently undergoing maintenanc
Russia nears gas shutdown in Europe as Germany rejects claims it can't fulfil contracts — Russia's energy giant is threatening to send less gas to Europe — but Germany, one of its main importers, has rejected the idea.Majority state-owned Gazprom said Monday that due to unforeseeable circumstances it is not in a position to comply with gas contracts in Europe.Germany's energy firm, Uniper, confirmed to CNBC that Gazprom had claimed "force majeure" on its supplies. Force majeure, a legal term, occurs when unforeseeable circumstances prevent one party from fulfilling its contractual duties, in theory absolving them from penalties."It is true that we have received a letter from Gazprom Export in which the company claims force majeure retroactively for past and current shortfalls in gas deliveries. We consider this as unjustified and have formally rejected the force majeure claim," Lucas Wintgens, spokesperson for Uniper, told CNBC's Annette Weisbach.RWE, another German energy company, confirmed to CNBC that it had also received a force majeure notice from Gazprom.Gazprom was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC on Tuesday.Officials in Germany and elsewhere in Europe have become increasingly concerned about the possibility of a complete shutdown of gas supplies from Russia. These fears intensified after Nord Stream 1 — a key gas pipeline from Russia to Germany — was closed earlier this month for maintenance work, with some doubting that flows will be fully restored after the work is concluded on July 21. European nations received about 40% of their gas imports from Russia before it invaded Ukraine. European officials have been scrambling to end this dependency, but it's a costly process and hard to achieve overnight.
Russia’s squeeze on gas means Germany’s energy giant is having to draw supplies from storage - German energy giant Uniper on Friday said it is having to draw down gas from storage facilities, reducing supplies needed for winter even as Europe is experiencing an extreme heatwave. The embattled utility told CNBC in a statement that reducing gas volumes from its own storage facilities was necessary “in order to supply our customers with gas and to secure the Uniper’s liquidity.” Finnish majority-owner Fortum said last week that Uniper submitted a bailout application to the German government after running into extreme financial distress due to a scarcity of gas and soaring prices. Germany’s economy ministry said Friday that there is still no timeframe for government assistance, according to Reuters. Speaking to reporters at a press conference on July 8, Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach warned that drawing down gas supplies from its storage facilities was a possibility due to the “enormous decrease” of imported gas from Russia. It comes even as Europe is sweltering amid a heat wave that has seen temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in several countries. Droughts and wildfires have been recorded in Spain and Portugal and sweltering temperatures have spread to the U.K. and France. Climate scientists have repeatedly made clear that human-caused global heating is making heat waves more likely and more intense. As scorching temperatures spread across the region, European policymakers remain focused on preparations for when the cold weather returns. Governments are scrambling to fill underground storage with gas supplies to provide households with enough fuel to keep the lights on and homes warm during winter. Uniper was the first German energy company to sound the alarm over soaring energy bills in the wake of Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine. The company has received only 40% of Russian contracted volumes in recent weeks and has been forced to source the replacement volumes at significantly higher prices. What’s more, annual maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline — the European Union’s biggest piece of gas import infrastructure — has fueled fears of further disruption to gas supplies. Russia suspended deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on July 11. The summer maintenance works are scheduled to run through to July 21. Germany fears Russia may continue to throttle Europe’s energy supplies beyond the scheduled end of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline maintenance for “political reasons.”
Italy’s gas storage ‘well above 65%’ of capacity, on track for 90% by October - Italy has filled far more than 65% of its gas storage capacity and is on track to achieve its target of reaching storage levels of 90% in October, the ecological transition minister said on Saturday. “Our storage is well above 65%. We must achieve 90% and possibly more in October. For now we are doing well,” Roberto Cingolani said during an online event.
Italy signs clutch of deals with Algeria in bid to boost gas supply -Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi sealed 15 agreements with Algeria’s president Monday, ahead of the expected conclusion of another deal to boost gas deliveries and reduce Italy’s reliance on Russian supplies. Draghi was received by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and the two went on to sign agreements and memorandums of understanding in areas ranging from energy to sustainable development, justice and micro-enterprises. The energy agreement signed on Monday is “a testament to our determination to achieve even more in this domain,” Draghi said, ahead of the expected signing of an oil and gas supply deal between Algeria and a clutch of companies including Italian energy giant Eni. “Tomorrow, an important agreement between (US energy firm) Occidental (Petroleum), Eni and (French oil company) Total providing significant volumes of natural gas” to Italy will be signed, Tebboune earlier told reporters at a joint news conference with Draghi. This contract will allow “the development of a site situated in the Berkine perimeter, and which should generate more than a billion barrels” of hydrocarbons, a government source told AFP. Tebboune said the deal was worth $4 billion. The government source confirmed that Algeria will also increase gas exports to Italy by four billion cubic metres in the coming days, as part of a deal reported Friday. Italy buys the majority of its natural gas from abroad, with some 45 percent of its imports historically coming from Russia. But Rome has increasingly looked to Algeria, historically its second biggest supplier, to reduce that dependence after the war in Ukraine sparked sanctions against Moscow and sent energy prices soaring. Algeria has therefore supplanted Russia to “become in recent months the biggest supplier of gas” to Italy, Draghi told reporters on Monday.
Macron seeks 'energy sobriety' from French, turns off street lights - French President Emmanuel Macron warned Thursday to prepare for a total cutoff of Russian natural gas by supporting alternatives, having public lights switched off at night and implementing, what he called, a period of nationwide "energy sobriety." The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the West's sanctions have aggravated other factors driving up prices for energy and other goods. With no end in sight for the Ukraine war, Macron said, the French should brace themselves for costs to remain high. “This war will continue," he said in a televised interview marking France's national holiday, Bastille Day. “The summer, early autumn will be very hard,” he added. "Russia is using energy, like it is using food, as a weapon of war,” Macron argued. “We should prepare ourselves for the scenario where we have to go without all Russian gas,” he warned. He said the government would prepare a “sobriety plan” to conserve energy, which would start with turning off public lights at night when they are not being useful. France will keep looking to diversify gas sources, he said, calling for a faster shift toward offshore windfarms and more European cross-border energy cooperation to weather the current crisis. Macron's political opponents on the far right and far left have blamed EU sanctions for reducing the purchasing power of French consumers while failing to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to pull troops out of Ukraine. France's president gave no indication during the interview of a policy shift toward Ukraine. “What do you want us to do?” he asked. “We want to stop this war without getting involved in this war. At the same time, we want to do everything so that Russia doesn’t win, so that Ukraine can defend its territory. We don’t want a world war,” he explained.
EU To Reduce Natural Gas Use By 15 Pct On Russian Supply Woes -The European Union is set to propose a voluntary 15% cut in natural gas use by member states starting next month on concern Russia may halt supplies of the fuel. The goal would be embedded in a regulation accompanying a demand-reduction plan the European Commission is scheduled to unveil Wednesday to cope with a potential full cutoff by Moscow. The measure also will include a mandatory trigger if the situation worsens and voluntary curbs are insufficient, according to three EU diplomats with knowledge of the matter. Under its “Save gas for a safe winter” plan, the commission plans to recommend steps that include reducing heating and cooling, as well as market-based measures. As much as 1.5% of the region’s gross domestic product is at risk in the event of a harsh winter, according to a draft commission estimate seen by Bloomberg News. The EU’s biggest challenge this winter is to ensure sufficient gas supplies to fuel furnaces and power generators. This is a modal window. The media could not be loaded, either because the server or network failed or because the format is not supported. The commission is working under the assumption that Russia will not resume full deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that has been closed since earlier this month for repairs, Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn said on Tuesday. The pipeline was only flowing at about 40% capacity before the repairs began. Curtailments of Russian shipments have affected 12 member states and prompted Germany to raise its gas-risk alert to the second-highest level last month. Overall flows from Russia in June were less than 30% of the 2016-2021 average, according to the document. The planned regulation would grant the commission the right to declare a union-wide alert when there is a substantial risk of a severe supply shortage or a demand spike, according to the diplomats, who asked not to be identified as talks on the proposal are private. The EU has a policy of not commenting on draft rules.
Spain, Portugal reject EU plan to cap natural gas use -(AP) — The European Union’s plan to reduce the bloc’s gas use by 15% to prepare for a potential cutoff by Russia this winter has been met with sharp skepticism by Spain and Portugal, two governments that are usually big supporters of the bloc. Madrid and Lisbon on Thursday said they would not support the initiative announced by European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday. The proposal by the EU’s head office would start with voluntary reductions but it also wants the power to make 15% savings mandatory for bloc's 27 nation in the event of an EU-wide energy emergency provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Spain and Portugal, however, said making reductions obligatory is a non-starter. They noted that they use very little Russian gas compared to other EU nations such as Germany and Italy and that there are scant energy connections linking them to the rest of Europe. “We will defend European values, but we won’t accept a sacrifice regarding an issue that we have not even been allowed to give our opinion on,” Spain’s Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera said. “Not matter what happens, Spanish families won’t suffer cuts to gas or to the electricity to their homes,” she said. “(The measure) would serve for nothing if the gas that could not be used by Spanish industries could not then later be used by the homes or industries of other countries.” Portugal’s secretary for the environment and energy, JoĂŁo Galamba, said the proposed measure was “unsustainable” and “disproportionate.” “The whole logic behind rationing presupposes interlinked (European gas distribution) systems and it appears the European Commission forgot about that,” he told the Portuguese newspaper Publico. He added that “Portugal was for years and years disadvantaged because it had no links” to the rest of Europe’s energy distribution network and the country has always had to buy “more expensive gas.” The reduced electrical connections and gas pipelines between Spain and France led to the EU allowing Iberian countries to install their own price control mechanisms this spring. All EU countries — as well as many nations around the world — are battling soaring inflation driven by energy prices. Spanish officials also noted their expanded infrastructure for importing LNG — liquified natural gas. With six plants in Spain and one in Portugal, they account for one-third of Europe’s LNG processing capacity. EU member states will discuss the proposed gas-saving measures at an emergency meeting of energy ministers next Tuesday.
EU expects Russian gas cutoff, to release winter energy plan - (AP) — Expecting that Russian President Vladimir Putin will cut off vast natural gas supplies to the European Union, the bloc's head office is set to propose energy cuts and savings Wednesday that might make for a much colder winter, but one without massive disruptions. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the EU has approved bans on Russian coal and most oil to take effect later this year but did not include natural gas because the 27-nation bloc depends on it to power factories, generate electricity and heat homes. Now, it fears that Putin will cut off gas anyway to try to wreak economic and political havoc in Europe this winter. “We are working on the worst possible scenario," said Eric Mamer, spokesman for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm. “And that scenario — an assumption, therefore — is that Gazprom would no longer deliver any gas — any gas — to Europe.” Experts were still plotting how to spread the pain of cuts equally among member states under the plan. Up to the last hours, EU officials were putting final touches on how the proposals would look, including how far guidance would go and where mandatory rules would have to kick in. Early leaks said the plan for call for EU nations to limit gas consumption by as much as 15%, but changes could still come at the last moment. The aim is to ensure essential industries and services like hospitals could keep functioning, while others would have to cut back. That could include lowering heat in public buildings and enticing families to use less energy at home. EU nations and the Commission have gone on a buying spree to diversify its natural gas sources away from Russia, but they are still expected to fall far short of providing businesses and homes with enough energy in the cold months. Just Monday, the leaders of Italy, France and the 27-nation EU sealed energy deals with their counterparts in Algeria, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates. Even if the EU has enough gas to keep the lights on and factories running right now, it does so at painfully high prices that have fueled runaway inflation and caused public uproar. Russia has cut off or reduced gas to some EU countries, and there are fears that the energy crisis will get worse if Moscow does not restart a key pipeline to Germany after scheduled maintenance ends Thursday. “We already have 12 countries or in certain cases, companies within countries that, from one day to the next, have experienced disruptions, either full or partial flow from gas from Gazprom,” Mamer said. “It is impossible for us to predict how Gazprom is going to act.” Reliance on Russian gas varies greatly among member states, with Germany heavily affected by any possible cutoff. Germany’s biggest importer of Russian gas, Uniper, said it had received a letter from Russia’s Gazprom claiming “force majeure” — events beyond its control — as the reason for past and current shortfalls in gas deliveries, a claim that the Uniper rejected.
Putin Says Nord Stream Will Restart, With Conditions -Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled that Europe would start getting gas again through a key pipeline but warned that unless a spat over sanctioned parts is resolved, flows will be tightly curbed. Europe is on tenterhooks, waiting to see whether gas flows resume on Thursday when maintenance on the Nord Stream pipeline is set to end. Putin gave the clearest signal yet that Moscow plans to restart at least some flows. But if a pipeline part that was caught up in sanctions isn’t returned to Russia, then the link will only work at 20% of capacity as soon as next week -- as that’s when another part that’s now in Russia needs to go for maintenance, Putin said. After frantic diplomatic efforts by Germany, the turbine is on its way home from Canada. “If another comes, two will operate. If not, just one, so 30 million cubic meters will be pumped per day,” he told reporters after a summit in Iran late Tuesday. He wants the part back in Russia, along with all its paperwork, he said. Gas prices were little changed. Now no gas is flowing through the biggest pipeline to Europe because of maintenance, just as the continent is trying to refill its storage for winter. Before maintenance, gas was flowing at about 40% of capacity. Gazprom PJSC is poised to restart flows, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, but at reduced levels, according to people familiar with the situation. Ultimately, it’s a decision for the Kremlin. Across the region, officials and businesses have been on edge as to whether Russia will reopen the tap for Nord Stream. The European Union is working on the assumption flows will be cut and scrambling to find ways to reduce consumption. The bloc is facing its worst energy crisis in decades, with the threat of shortages undermining the euro and adding to the risks of recession.
Vladimir Putin wants to keep Europe in 'perpetual panic' as Russia restarts Nord Stream gas flows, analyst says -While gas flows through the pipeline have resumed at 40% of capacity, the Kremlin could later cut it to 20% to turn the screws further on Europe, which has accused Russia of weaponizing energy in retaliation for its sanctions after Putin launched a war on Ukraine."He wants to keep the continent in perpetual panic," Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC."He wants to remain in the driver seat of this crisis."She added that she expects Russia to make further cuts to European gas deliveries, calling Thursday's Nord Stream restart a temporary reprieve.To be sure, Europe is preparing for reduced gas flows. On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed a 15% cut in EU gas consumption that could become mandatory if the energy situation worsens.Croft added that Europe will have a difficult time maintaining unity as countries look to ration gas supplies.She noted that Greece, Spain and Portugal have already raised concerns over the proposed 15% cut, with Spain suggesting it shouldn't bear as heavy a burden on rationing."Germany is going to bear the brunt of this 50% of German consumers use gas to heat their homes, and so this is going to be a real challenge for Germany when they have to think about rationing," she said.
Germany again rejects Russian explanation for gas supply cut - (AP) — The German government said Monday that a turbine at the center of uncertainty about future gas deliveries through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe was only supposed to be installed in September, underlining its insistence that there should be no technical obstacle to the gas flow. Meanwhile, Germany's biggest importer of Russian gas said it had received a letter from Russia's Gazprom claiming “force majeure” — events beyond its control — as the reason for past and current shortfalls in gas deliveries, a claim that the importer rejected. Analysts say the impact of the move on future gas deliveries is uncertain. Gazprom reduced gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany by 60% last month. The state-owned gas company cited alleged technical problems involving equipment that partner Siemens Energy sent to Canada for overhaul and couldn’t be returned because of sanctions imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Canadian government said over a week ago that it would allow the gas turbine that powers a compressor station to be delivered to Germany, citing the “very significant hardship” that the German economy would suffer without a sufficient gas supply to keep industries running and to generate heat and electricity. German politicians have dismissed Russia’s technical explanation for last month’s reduction in gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, saying the decision was a political gambit by the Kremlin to sow uncertainty and further push up energy prices. “We don't see technical reasons,” Economy Ministry spokeswoman Beate Baron told reporters in Berlin. “Our information is that this turbine is a replacement turbine that was earmarked for use in September but, again, we are doing everything to take away possible pretexts for the Russian side.” Nord Stream 1 shut down altogether for annual maintenance on July 11. German officials are concerned that Russia may not resume gas deliveries at all after the scheduled end of that work Thursday and could cite an alleged technical reason not to do so.
Germany agrees to bail out energy giant Uniper as Russia squeezes gas supplies - Germany on Friday agreed to bail out Uniper with a 15 billion euro ($15.24 billion) rescue deal, as the embattled energy company becomes the first major casualty of Russia's natural gas squeeze. The package will see the German state take a 30% equity stake in Uniper. The company's shares initially rose when the deal was announced, before falling sharply. They were trading more than 21% lower an hour later. Uniper was the first energy company in Germany — Europe's largest economy — to sound the alarm over soaring energy bills, and submitted a bailout application for government support earlier this month. As Germany's biggest importer of gas, it has been hit hard by vastly reduced flows via pipelines from Russia, which have sent prices soaring. In a statement, Finnish majority-owner Fortum said Uniper and the German government had agreed on a "comprehensive stabilisation package" to provide it with financial relief. "We are living through an unprecedented energy crisis that requires robust measures. After intensive but constructive negotiations, we found a solution that in an acceptable way met the interest of all parties involved," Fortum's president and CEO, Markus Rauramo, said in the statement. "We were driven by urgency and the need to protect Europe's security of supply in a time of war." Following the bailout, Fortum will own a 56% stake in Uniper — down from around 80% before the deal. The German government is ready to provide further support if Uniper's losses — as a result of the gas squeeze — exceed 9 billion euros, Fortum added. Russian gas supplies to Europe have fallen since its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine earlier this year — and the subsequent sanctions placed on Moscow by the West. Uniper has received only "a fraction of its contracted gas volumes" from Russian gas giant Gazprom since mid-June, according to Fortum, meaning it has had to buy gas at much-higher spot market prices. This has had severe consequences for Uniper's financial position, Fortum added. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, was around 5% higher Friday at 164 euros per megawatt-hour. Prices are up more than 650% over the last year. Last week, Uniper said it was already having to draw down gas from storage facilities, reducing supplies needed for winter. In a statement to CNBC, the company said that reducing gas volumes from its own storage facilities was necessary "in order to supply our customers with gas and to secure the Uniper's liquidity."
Key gas pipeline from Russia to Europe restarts after break - (AP) — Natural gas started flowing through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe on Thursday after a 10-day shutdown for maintenance — but the gas flow remained well short of full capacity and the outlook was uncertain, which leaves Europe still facing the prospect of a hard winter.The Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany had been closed since July 11for annual maintenance work. Amid growing tensions over Russia’s war in Ukraine, German officials had feared that the pipeline — the country’s main source of Russian gas, which recently has accounted for around a third of Germany’s gas supplies — might not reopenat all.Network data showed gas beginning to arrive through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline as scheduled after 6 a.m., and the operator said that it had “successfully completed all planned maintenance works.” But deliveries were still far below the pipeline's full capacity, as they were for weeks before the maintenance break.The head of Germany's network regulator, Klaus Mueller, said Russia’s Gazprom had notified deliveries Thursday of about 30% of the pipeline's capacity. He later tweeted that actual deliveries were above that amount and could reach the pre-maintenance level of some 40%.That wouldn't be enough to resolve Europe's energy crisis. “The political uncertainty and the 60% reduction from mid-June unfortunately remain,” Mueller wrote.When Gazprom reduced the flow last month, it cited alleged technical problems involving equipment that partner Siemens Energy sent to Canada for overhaul and couldn’t be returned because of sanctions imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The Canadian government earlier this month gave permission for the turbine that powers a compressor station at the Russian end of the pipeline to be delivered to Germany.The German government has rejected Gazprom’s technical explanation for the gas reduction, charging repeatedly that it was only a pretext for a political decision to sow uncertainty and further push up energy prices. It has said the turbine was a replacement that was only supposed to be installed in September, but that it’s doing everything to deprive Russia of the pretext to reduce supplies.
Vladimir Putin wants to keep Europe in 'perpetual panic' as Russia restarts Nord Stream gas flows, analyst says -While gas flows through the pipeline have resumed at 40% of capacity, the Kremlin could later cut it to 20% to turn the screws further on Europe, which has accused Russia of weaponizing energy in retaliation for its sanctions after Putin launched a war on Ukraine."He wants to keep the continent in perpetual panic," Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC."He wants to remain in the driver seat of this crisis."She added that she expects Russia to make further cuts to European gas deliveries, calling Thursday's Nord Stream restart a temporary reprieve.To be sure, Europe is preparing for reduced gas flows. On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed a 15% cut in EU gas consumption that could become mandatory if the energy situation worsens.Croft added that Europe will have a difficult time maintaining unity as countries look to ration gas supplies.She noted that Greece, Spain and Portugal have already raised concerns over the proposed 15% cut, with Spain suggesting it shouldn't bear as heavy a burden on rationing."Germany is going to bear the brunt of this 50% of German consumers use gas to heat their homes, and so this is going to be a real challenge for Germany when they have to think about rationing," she said.
Turbine for Nord Stream 1 Is Still Travelling To Germany - A gas turbine for the operation of Gazprom PJSC’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline that’s the main route of gas transport from Russia to Germany is held up in transit after maintenance in Canada, the latest twist in an ongoing spat between the two countries. “Under normal circumstances, the maintenance of turbines is a routine operation for us. Naturally, we want to transport the turbine to its place of operation as quickly as possible. However, the time it takes is not exclusively within our control,” a spokesman for Siemens Energy, the manufacturer for the turbine, said in an emailed statement Thursday. The turbine, only a spare part for the pipeline, was sent to Siemens Energy’s Montreal site for repairs but became stranded due to sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry unveiled last month. Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck proposed a workaround whereby the part would be delivered first to Germany, and from there to Russia. Gazprom last week said it requested documents from Siemens that will allow the return of the turbine. The papers, which the Russian gas giant requested July 15, should help move it amid sanctions regimes in Canada and the European Union back to the Portovaya compressor station -- “a critical facility for the Nord Stream gas pipeline,” the firm said Saturday. Reuters reported earlier Thursday that the turbine was held up in transit in Cologne after returning from Canada and that Moscow had so far not provided documents needed to import it into Russia, including details on where exactly to deliver it and via which customs station. Portovaya is located about 20 kilometers from the Finnish border on the Russian side.
China LNG Demand Revival Can Add to Europe Energy Troubles - Europe may face a further setback in efforts to manage its energy crisis if there’s a revival in China’s demand for liquefied natural gas, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Weaker LNG consumption as a result of coronavirus curbs has seen the nation add to inventories, and enabled importers to capitalize on high prices by reselling cargoes -- boosting the availability of shipments for European buyers, Goldman’s head of natural gas research Samantha Dart told Bloomberg Television in an interview. “They have been reselling their LNG cargoes out in the spot market. The more they resell, the more is available for Europe,” Dart said. “That brings up an important risk -- the moment Chinese economic activity picks up, we may see this quickly change and as a result fewer cargoes for Europe.” China’s total domestic demand for natural gas was down in April and May from a year earlier, and about flat in June, she said. The country’s LNG imports could fall 14% this year on factors including higher prices and a subdued economy, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. The global energy squeeze means countries will need a more flexible short-term approach on the move to low-emissions sources, because growth in renewables isn’t yet sufficient to offset any gap in natural gas supply, Dart said. “The energy transition is not going to stop, but it is going to have to be more tolerant of hydrocarbons for a little bit longer when we don’t have enough natural gas,” Dart said. “There is no other way but to bring in coal, bring in oil, bring in other fuels.”
ExxonMobil acquires majority exploration rights for Crete region - Hellenic Petroleum on Tuesday announced that ExxonMobil acquired the majority of hydrocarbon exploration rights in the region of west and southwest of Crete, following the departure of TotalEnergies. ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, with 40% each, and Hellenic Petroleum (20%), previously had the majority of hydrocarbon exploration rights. Hellenic Petroleum said that ExxonMobil now has 70% of exploration rights and Hellenic Petroleum the remaining 30%. A series of seismic research was conducted in the region in 2012. In December 2021, Cyprus and a consortium made up of ExxonMobil and Qatar Energy signed a natural gas exploration and production sharing contract relating to an offshore field. The signing came in the face of a strong reaction by Turkey, which claims exploration rights in an area off the southwestern Cypriot shores, which includes block 5 of the officially declared Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that was licensed to the consortium. Turkey has claimed that by licensing gas exploration, Cyprus violated its continental shelf and warned that it would not allow unauthorized exploration in its marine jurisdiction. It also said that the agreement violated the rights of Turkish Cypriots, who live in a part of Cyprus controlled by Turkish troops. Cyprus rebuffed the Turkish assertions, saying that it “deliberately fails to comply with International Law, by making groundless claims and disregarding the international community’s position in full support of the sovereign rights of Cyprus in its own continental shelf.”
Russian and Iranian energy giants reach $40 billion deal to develop oil and gas projects as Putin visits Tehran -Russia and Iran reached a tentative deal to develop future oil and gas projects Tuesday, signing a memorandum of understanding worth $40 billion.Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company reached preliminary terms for the Russian state-run energy giant to aid in the development oil and gas fields as well as the construction of pipelines and liquefied natural gas projects."The National Iranian Oil Company does not ignore any investment opportunity," Mohsen Khojastehmehr, NIOC's chief executive, told Iran's state media.The agreement comes on the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Tehran to meet with Iranian and Turkish heads of state.Iran owns the largest supply of natural gas reserves ahead of Russia. A deal between the two comes amid a strained energy market suffering from skyrocketing prices and unstable sourcing.Europe is preparing for a potential full-scale shutdown of Russian gas flows after the invasion of Ukraine upended global energy markets and drew condemnation that resulted in sanctions from the West.As a result, Russia is turning to other countries to send energy supplies. A Russia-China gas pipeline will break ground within the next two years, as the two allies deepen their economic and energy ties. The pipeline will run 2,600 kilometers and is expected to begin service in 2030. Meanwhile, the European Union signed a new gas deal with Azerbaijan on Monday to double imports of natural gas by 2027 to at least 20 billion cubic meters.
Russian And Iran Ink $40 Billion Oil And Gas Agreement - Ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iran on Tuesday, his second foreign trip since he invaded Ukraine in February, Russian Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company have inked a $40-billion agreement for the development of oil and gas fields. Moscow and Tehran signed the $40-billion Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) just ahead of Putin’s arrival in the Iranian capital. The deal, in its preliminary form, will see Gazprom assist Iran’s state oil company in the development of both oil and gas fields and the construction of LNG project pipelines. According to Iran’s PressTV, the deal includes a $10-billion project in Kish and North Pars gas fields in the Persian Gulf, along with the $15-billion project to boost pressure at South Pars, which is the largest gas field in the world, shared by Iran and Qatar. Additionally, the deal will see Iran’s national oil company cooperate with Gazprom to complete LNG projects and construct export pipelines for gas. Finally, the MoU paves the way for energy swap deals between the two countries. The Iranian National Oil Company is calling the deal the “largest foreign investment commitment on record” in Iranian oil industry history, claiming that the Russian investment represents one-quarter of all oil sector investments in the country from now until 2025. Also on Tuesday, Iran launched Iranian rial-Russian ruble trading in its foreign exchange market in a further effort to shore up ties with Moscow and to boost exports to Russia. The move comes as Russia steps up efforts to abandon the petrodollar due to sanctions. In his second post-invasion international trip, Putin is meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on Tuesday, followed by meetings with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan. The meetings will discuss energy, the conflict in Syria, global grain exports and the conflict in Ukraine.
Price cap on Russian oil is a 'ridiculous idea' and could push oil to $140, says think tank --The proposed price cap on Russian oil is a "ridiculous idea" that could backfire on the U.S. and the other Group of 7 countries, according to the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. "It's kind of a ridiculous idea in my view," Gal Luft told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Monday. "It ignores the fact that oil is a fungible commodity," he said. The term fungible means interchangeable, implying equal value between two barrels of oil, for example. The U.S. wants to put a cap on Russia's oil prices to reduce funds flowing into the the country's war chest, while also bringing down the cost of oil for consumers. Luft likened the plan to going to a shop and asking the seller to accept less money than the listed price. "That's not how the oil market works," he said. "This is a very sophisticated market, you cannot force the prices down." What's likely to happen is that Russia will restrict its production and create an artificial shortage in the market, he predicted. "Those Europeans and Americans that are talking about $40 a barrel, what they're going to get is $140 a barrel," Luft warned. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, has reported that the U.S. and its allies have discussed capping the price of Russian oil between $40 and $60 per barrel. "You cannot trick the laws of supply and demand, and you cannot defy the laws of gravity when it comes to a fungible commodity," he said. Oil prices have been volatile and shot up as demand roared back after countries rolled back Covid measures and reopened. Russia's war on Ukraine also contributed to the spike in energy prices. To punish Moscow for the invasion, the U.S. banned imports of Russian oil, while the European Union has plans to impose a gradual embargo. Meanwhile, some oil-producing countries are struggling to raise output.
Tanker Companies Race To Ship Russian Oil Ahead Of New Sanctions - Western sanctions have so far failed to crush Russia’s oil exports as Moscow is redirecting crude to its more than willing Asian buyers, China and India. European vessel owners, especially private Greek operators, are moving a lot of the Russian oil in the months before the EU ban on seaborne Russian oil imports kicks in at the end of this year. Greek tanker owners have increased their exposure to Russian oil shipping in the past two months as they race to profit from the higher demand for heavily discounted Russian oil in China and India. Once EU sanctions on seaborne imports of Russian oil take effect this December, Greek tanker operators will have to stop shipping Russian oil. A much bigger blow to Russian oil exports that will have dramatic consequences on the global oil tanker market and oil prices comes from provision number two in the sixth sanctions package - EU operators will be prohibited from insuring and financing the marine transportation of Russian oil to third countries.Until the sanctions enter into force, European, especially Greek, tanker owners are moving a lot of Russian oil to Asia, making a lot of money in the process. Shippers from Greece, China, and Turkey are eagerly taking advantage of the situation, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. By shipping Russian ESPO crude from Kozmino to the Chinese coast, a ship owner can make $1.6 million—three times what they would have made before the war in Ukraine. Earlier this month, Ukraine called out Greece for shipping Russian oil. “We see Greek companies providing almost the largest tanker fleet for the transportation of Russian oil,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a speech to a conference in Athens via video link. “Once again: this is happening precisely when another Russian energy resource is being used as a weapon against Europe and against the family budget of every European. I am sure that this does not meet the interests of Europe, Greece, or Ukraine,” Zelensky added. Greek vessel owners made 151 port calls from Baltic and Black Sea Russian ports between May 1 and June 27, up by 41% compared to the same period last year, according to data compiled by Lloyd’s List using Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Almost half of all crude and refined products exported from key Baltic or Black Sea ports were shipped on vessels Greek tanker owners beneficially own, the data showed. TMS Tankers of billionaire George Economou is the biggest Greek player in the Russian market and second overall, second only to Russia-owned Sovcomflot, which is under Western sanctions, according to the data. Greek tankers are also participating in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers offshore Greece, Malta, and south of Gibraltar, Lloyd’s List data showed. It’s difficult to predict what will happen to the global tanker market when the EU sanctions enter into force, but demand for oil remains high, so tankers will be used on other routes, a CEO at a Greek shipping firm told The Wall Street Journal.
Russia's crude deliveries to China and India have plunged 30% from their wartime peak as concerns mount that Asia can't fully absorb Moscow's shrinking oil market -- Russia's crude shipments to China and India have fallen nearly 30% since they peaked after the war in Ukraine began, a Bloomberg report found, signaling that Asia may not be equipped to fully absorb Russian barrels once European sanctions fully set in.So far, expensive crude prices have bolstered Russia's export-duty revenues and helped mitigate the influence of a shrinking market. Soaring oil prices have allowed the Kremlin to continue funding its war efforts even amid tightening sanctions. Since the war began, India went from importing nearly zero barrels a day of Russian crude to almost 1 million barrels a day last month, according to Vortexa data. China, too, has ramped up imports dramatically, nearly doubling Russian crude imports between February and June. But deliveries have slipped to roughly 30% below their highs, Bloomberg reported. According to Bloomberg data, Moscow is netting roughly $160 million a week in crude export duties, about 25% higher than in prewar months but down by about the same amount from April peaks.Since mid-June, Russia's seaborne crude flows have declined on a rolling four-week average of exports calculated by Bloomberg. Flows have slipped to 3.24 million barrels a day leading up to July 15, seeing a dip in each of the prior four weeks. While flows to Asia have accounted for over half of Russia's total crude flows since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, shipments to Asia hit their lowest four-week average in nearly four months in the lead-up to July 15.Still, for Moscow's oil income to take a hit, there would need to be a drop in global demand, which analysts say remains unlikely for some time.
China Gets Competition For Its Favorite Russian Oil From India - India has ramped up purchases of crude from Russia’s far east, a grade that’s typically favored by Chinese oil refiners. Four vessels hauling Russian ESPO oil are making their way to India, with two tankers heading for Paradip port on the east coast, where a refinery operated by Indian Oil Corp. is located, according to shipbrokers and data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with three vessels in June and one in April, said Emma Li, an analyst at Vortexa in Singapore. State-owned Indian Oil didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The trade is typically not attractive to Indian buyers due to the long distance from the Russian loading port of Kozmino and because ESPO crude cargoes are usually transported in aframax vessels, which carry smaller volumes. However, the cheaper price compared with other grades from the Persian Gulf and West Africa are likely to have prompted the buying, according to traders. Cargoes of ESPO can be shipped to China in around five days, and the nation’s refiners have been eagerly snapping up the cheap Russian barrels, which have displaced flows from other suppliers such as West Africa and Brazil.
World's Oil Hot Spots May Shift as Industry Adopts Wind, Solar - The world’s oil map is being redrawn as the industry becomes increasingly intertwined with renewables, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Oil majors that want to reduce their carbon footprint will have to shift their activities to energy basins where drilling rigs can be powered by renewables and which have ample space for carbon sequestration, said Andrew Latham, vice president at Wood Mackenzie, in a new report.
Brazil, Guyana, Mexico Projects To Offset Declines In Other Areas -In the coming years, upstream capex in Latin America will shift into deeper and deeper water with Brazil, Guyana, and Mexico likely to lead the charge for new spending, Rystad Energy said. While onshore investments stabilized at around $14 billion and shallow water spending continues to decline, deepwater expenditure is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 percent from 2021 to 2025. Rystad estimates that deepwater investment in seismic, drilling, and facilities will exceed $25 billion by 2025, nearing 2013’s historical high of $28 billion driven by Brazil’s pre-salt fields. Three countries will lead upcoming growth – Brazil will retain its dominant position with Guyana growing on the back of recent discoveries and Mexico extending exploration from legacy shelf regions to deeper waters. Combined, anticipated mega projects in these three countries will help buoy the supply chain for drillships, floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, and subsea equipment following a steady decline since 2014 when activity peaked in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, and Australia. In 2022, deepwater capex is projected to exceed $72 billion globally. This represents substantial growth from last year when spending bottomed out at $58 billion, a level not since 2006 and not even half of 2014’s peak of $154 billion. Back then, long-cycle investment was seen as critical to meeting the energy needs of growing global populations with North America’s shale revolution in full swing, spurring the U.S. to become a swing producer as operators drilled for short-cycle returns in response to rising oil and gas prices. From 2015 to 2020, they effectively capped oil and gas prices until the recent investor backlash against growing production in North America. Now, operators appear to have lost their appetite for massive deepwater projects as their attention and capital shifts to more certain returns from onshore plays. Now, however, amid relative restraint from onshore operators in the U.S. and Canada, we see this trend abating led by offshore developments in Brazil, Guyana, and Mexico. The effects of this downturn in deepwater activity were felt across the oil and gas supply chain. After a massive build cycle in deepwater drillships associated with the previous growth in spending, the decline beginning in 2015 led to 267 rig years of canceled contracts and offshore drillers desperately trying to delay or cancel newbuild orders.
Russia distances itself from the US dollar further as it moves to trade oil with India using the UAE's local currency: report - Russia is looking to complete an oil deal with Indian refiners using the United Arab Emirates' local currency, rather than in dollars, according to a Reuters report. An invoice seen by Reuters revealed an Indian refiner was asked to pay for deliveries in dirhams, though the figure was first calculated in dollars. A payment in dirhams was made out to Gazprombank via Mashreq Bank, its corresponding bank in Dubai.At least two Indian refiners have already settled some transactions using dirhams, and there are more to come soon as trading firms used by Rosneft only just started asking for payments in dirhams this month, the report added. The moves signal Moscow is increasingly distancing itself from the US dollar as a way to minimize the impact of Western sanctions. Typically, the dollar is the primary international trade currency, especially for commodities like oil. This also affords the US political and financial leverage over other nations, as exhibited by recent sanctions imposed on Moscow. But Russia's looking to alternate currencies now.Earlier in March, Russia and India were in talks to revive a Cold-War era currency pact to evade sanctions too. A rupee-ruble ledger would allow the nations to do business without the use of US dollars. Additionally, in recent months trade volume between yuan and rubles have soared, hitting a six-month high in June, Bloomberg data shows. Spot trading between the two currencies hit $48 million in the interbank market last month.
UK steps up support to prevent major oil spill off the coast of Yemen – --Efforts to prevent a major oil spill in the Red Sea have been boosted by a further £2 million announced by the Minister for the Middle East Amanda Milling today. The FSO Safer tanker is moored off Yemen’s Red Sea coast and contains more than a million barrels of oil. The tanker is beyond repair, and it is feared that it could soon break apart or explode, destroying the environment around it and potentially exposing communities in Yemen to life-threatening toxins. The UN has been coordinating international efforts to prevent a disastrous oil spill from the tanker. The £2 million announced by the UK for the UN appeal today is in addition to £4 million pledged in May, making the UK one of the leading donors. At a meeting with counterparts from Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the US today, Minister Milling called on the international community to step up its support. Minister for the Middle East and Asia Amanda Milling said: A major oil spill from the Safer oil tanker would create an ecological disaster in the Red Sea and exacerbate the dire humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The UK is stepping up our support to resolve this crisis. The UN are ready to implement an emergency operation but the international community must increase funding to allow them to get started. In May, the UK pledged £4 million pounds to the appeal as part of a UN conference to launch the emergency plan. Of the $80 million requested by the UN for Phase 1 of the operation, $60 million has been pledged so far. The UN’s plan involves a 4-month emergency salvage operation during which a ship-to-ship transfer will be conducted to remove the oil from the Safer onto a UN-leased vessel. The tanker will then be cleaned and eventually a replacement tanker will be installed. At almost 400 metres long, it is among the largest tankers in the world and holds roughly 4 times the crude oil that was spilled during the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989.
Eroton Announces Successful Containment of Oil Spill in Rivers -- Eroton Exploration and Production Company Limited, has announced that it had successfully shut in CAWC015 Well amid efforts to contain CAWC047 wild well oil spill in Rivers State. Following the oil spill incident in Cawthorne Channel Well 15 (CAWC015L/S) which occurred on June 15, 2022, the indigenous oil producer has confirmed that the spill has been successfully contained and the well brought under control. The company in a statement also expressed delight “to confirm that CAWC-047 that was also vandalised within the same month and flowing to the environment since July 14 has just been controlled.” It added that efforts are ongoing to complete a spill clean-up of the wellhead slot, a proper securement, and the subsequent installation of subsurface downhole plugs. Eroton recalled that both spills were due to willful sabotage by unknown persons. In the statement issued by the company spokesperson, Mercy Max-Ebibai, it stated that the well engineering team and the well control vendor assiduously worked to establish control across all the flowing points on the vandalised wellhead. The statement affirmed that in the light of the sabotage, the team had to fabricate a platform on a work barge (as the well head platform had been initially totally cannibalised) before control valves could be installed and well shut-in was achieved. Max-Ebibai also stated that following the preliminary Joint Investigative Visit (JIV), the JIV with all relevant stakeholders, including NOSDRA, the Ministry of Environment and the community was held on July 15, 2022, with the intent to estimate spill volume and Post Spill Impact Assessment, confirming that the clean-up exercise will be wrapped up at the earliest possible time. However, she commended members of the affected community, stating that: “As excellent hosts, they provided all the necessary support in arresting the situation despite the hazards posed by the incident. We are happy that their seafaring and economic activities can return to normal in no time.” The statement noted that Eroton is one of Nigeria’s foremost indigenous Oil and Gas Companies. “It is the Operator of OML 18 Field on behalf of the NNPC/Eroton JV. OML 18 is situated in the Eastern Niger Delta and covers a total area of 1,035 SQKM in an onshore swamp terrain. Eroton has a clear vision for the future, which is evident from the six-fold increase in production since the asset was acquired in 2015. Eroton is based in Lagos and Rivers States,” it said.
CAWC015 Well oil spill successfully contained - Following the oil spill incident in Cawthorne Channel Well 15 (CAWC015L/S) which occurred on June 15 2022, the indigenous oil producer confirmed that the spill has been successfully contained and the well brought under control. The company also was please to confirm that CAWC-047 that was also vandalised within the same month and flowing to the environment since Sunday, 10th July has just been controlled today. Efforts are ongoing to complete a spill clean-up of the wellhead slot, a proper securement, and the subsequent installation of subsurface downhole plugs. Both spills were due to willful sabotage by unknown persons. In an update sent out to the press, company spokesperson, Mercy Max-Ebibai, stated that the Well engineering team and the Well Control vendor assiduously worked to establish control across all the flowing points on the vandalised wellhead. Affirming that in the light of the sabotage, the team had to fabricate a platform on a work barge (as the well head platform had been initially totally cannibalised) before control valves could be installed and well shut-in achieved. She also informed reporters that following the preliminary Joint Investigative Visit (JIV), a JIV with all relevant stakeholders, including NOSDRA, the Ministry of Environment and the community was held on the 15th of July 2022 with the intent to estimate spill volume and Post Spill Impact Assessment. Confirming that the clean-up exercise will be wrapped up at the earliest possible time. Finally, she commended members of the affected community, stating “As excellent hosts, they provided all the necessary support in arresting the situation despite the hazards posed by the incident.
Mangaluru: Sunken Princess Miral vessel still lying in sea, oil removal delayed - Nearly a month gone by after Princess Miral vessel of Syria sunk into the sea at Battappady of Ullal. In the present weather conditions, the oil that is held in the cargo section of the vessel, will not be emptied till the end of August. Two separate teams had arrived from Goa and Mumbai and did the spot inspection with regards to removal of oil and other matters pertaining to its salvage. The ship is stuck to the base of the sea but has not sunk completely. But as the deck is under water, expert operation is required to enter the vessel. Tugboat Waterlilly of water transport ministry is stationed at NMPT. The main aim of this is to prevent or restrict the oil spillage, in case if it happens. Coast guard and police are also keeping watch on the vessel. The crew of the ship are in the city itself as their repatriation process is not yet complete. Representatives of the ship owner are putting in all efforts in this regard and they are likely to be repatriated next week.
India’s diesel, gasoline sales taper off adding to oil’s gloom - India’s gasoline and diesel sales during the first half of July dropped from last month as seasonal rains curtailed demand in the world’s third-biggest energy consumer, that could help keep a lid on oil prices. The three biggest retailers sold 1.28 million tons of gasoline during July 1-15, down about 8% from the corresponding period in June, according to refinery officials with knowledge of the matter. Diesel sales fell almost 14% from last month, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing unpublished data. The retracement in India’s fuel demand adds pressure on the price of oil amid rising pessimism about a global economic slowdown that dragged it below $100 a barrel for the first time since early April. The softening of demand could also add to a supply glut in the region that’s curtailing the profits from processing gasoline and diesel. This is the first monthly decline in sales in three months after resurgent economic activity, summer travel and increased use of diesel-fired generators during a severe heat-wave drove the South Asian nation’s fuel demand. Fuel consumption in India typically declines in this time of the year because of the monsoon rains that lasts till September. It hampers trucking and construction activities, weighing on demand for diesel, the country’s most-used petroleum fuel.
Oil import bill increased by 96% in 10MFY22 - Pakistan Today -The government imported oil worth $17.03 billion during the first 10 months (July-April) of the last fiscal year (10MFY22) to meet the country’s energy needs, an increase of almost 96% increase from the oil import bill compared to the same period of FY21. “Latest data indicates that the import bill of oil has increased by 95.9% to $17.03 billion during July-April FY22 compared to US$8.69 billion during the same period last year,” according to an official document. The surge in oil import bill has been attributed to increased import of petroleum products that went up by 121.2% in value and 24.2% in quantity. The document said the crude oil imports rose by 75.34% in value and 1.4% in quantity. Similarly, the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) witnessed an increase of 82.9% in value while the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) imports also jumped by 39.86% in quantity during the period under review. It may be mentioned here that around 75.64% of gas was domestically produced while 24.4% was imported during the period under review.
Oil output rises to 1.23mbpd, but less than OPEC quota - -- Crude output rose to an average 1.238 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Nigeria in June but less than the 1.766 mbpd allocated by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC Oil Market Report for July 2022 shows that Nigeria’s oil production increased by 5,000 bpd in June compared with 1.233 mbpd in May. The cartel has raised Nigeria’s quota to 1.799 mbpd in July. “According to secondary sources, averaged 28.72 mbpd in June 2022, higher by 234,000 barrels per day month-on-month. “Crude oil output increased mainly in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait and Angola, while production in Libya and Venezuela declined,’’ the report said. Despite the improvement in fossil fuel prices, it explained, the short-term economic outlook for Nigeria was affected by high inflation, which had reduced private sector optimism and weakened consumer spending. It noted that the composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 17.7 per cent in May from 16.8 per cent in April. “In response to the elevated inflationary pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] raised its policy rate by 150 basic points to 13 per cent bringing borrowing costs to the highest since April of 2020. - Advertisement - “It was the biggest rate hike since July of 2016 amid concerns that persistent inflationary pressures could weigh on the country’s fragile recovery.”
Oman’s crude oil production rises 9.7% to 190m barrels in H1 - Oman’s crude oil and condensate production reached 189.6 million barrels during the first half of 2022, recording a 9.7 percent growth over the same period last year, according to data released by the Ministry of Energy and Minerals. This comes as the Sultanate’s exports of liquefied natural gas climbed to around 5.9 million tons in the first six months of the year, registering an 8 percent increase over the same period in 2021, Oman News Agency reported. During the first three months of 2022, Oman’s LNG export was around 3 million, however, the figure declined a bit in the second quarter as it exported about 2.9 million tons. The oil prices continued to rise throughout June trading, reaching $112.9 per barrel as a consequence of global economic conditions and political escalations around the world, the ministry added.
Libya’s NOC to restart crude exports at four ports -- Libya's state-owned NOC said it is preparing to resume crude exports from four terminals over 19-21 July, ending weeks of blockades that have nearly halved the country's oil production. The company said it expects a tanker to load at Es Sider over 19-20 July, another is scheduled to pick up 1mn bl of Bu Attifel crude from the Zueitina terminal on 20 July, and two tankers are expected at Ras Lanuf on 20-21 July. Another vessel will collect 600,000 bl of Brega crude from the Marsa el-Brega terminal over this period. The latter port has already resumed loadings of condensate. The company did not disclose the names of the ships scheduled to load. Tracking data and a shipping source indicate the Crudemed and Caspian Sea are due to reach Ras Lanuf within the week. The tanker Matala has been fixed to arrive at Es Sider today and is flagging the terminal as its next destination. Restarting crude exports is a critical first step to increasing Libyan production. The country has very limited storage availability and its output is disrupted or has to stop completely when shipments cannot take place. The 90,000 b/d El Feel field, which has been under force majeure since 17 April, is now gradually resuming output, according to NOC subsidiary Mellitah Oil and Gas. It will initially produce at a rate of 40,000 b/d. El Feel, whose output is comingled with Wafa condensate to create the Mellitah crude blend, has in the past typically produced around 70,000 b/d, below its nameplate capacity. Libyan crude production dropped by 150,000 b/d to 600,000 b/d in June from the month before, Argus estimates, as a result of blockades at some terminals since the middle of April. NOC lifted force majeure restrictions from all oil terminals on 15 July.
Energy consultancy keeps lowering worldwide recoverable oil resources -- It's hard to say that three years makes a trend. But one of the world's major energy consulting firms has lowered its estimate of world oil reserves for three years in a row now. Rystad Energy provides a publicly available analysis of world oil reserves each year. In 2020 Rystad wrotethat "the world’s recoverable oil [dropped] by around 282 billion barrels." That represented a 12.9 percent decline in just one year. In 2021 the firm stated its analysis showed that recoverable resources declined by another 178 billion barrels or about 9.4 percent. Rystad said the decline was due in part to new modelling based on resources "at well level rather than field level." The closer Rystad looked, the less oil there seemed to be.In 2022 Rystad noted yet another decline of almost 9 percent in its press release headline. Recoverable oil resources dropped another 152 billion barrels. (For all estimates Rystad uses figures for crude oil and lease condensate which is the accepted definition of oil.)With estimated recoverable resources standing at 1.572 trillion barrels, there is no seeming immediate threat to oil supplies. But the trend, should it continue, would be troublesome. There is a lot to look at "under the hood" of these estimates. Rystad reduces its broad 2022 estimate to an amount it believes could be produced profitably if oil is around $50, namely 1.2 trillion barrels. Price always matters when talking about recoverable resources. Higher prices, of course, make harder-to-get resources more likely to be profitable.Rystad notes the lowering of investment in oil exploration as one of the culprits. This drop has been driven by the uncertainties surrounding the pandemic and a world about to be ever more stringent regarding fossil fuel emissions.Companies and countries holding oil under their soil have long been known to exaggerate. Lack of independent audits among the world's government-owned oil companies should give us pause. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait all have national oil companies that control oil development within those countries. For a more comprehensive list, see here. Because of the lack of transparency into much of the world's oil resources, we are left taking the word of governments, many of whom are part of OPEC—and those OPEC members have an incentive to inflate their reserves in order to increase their OPEC production quotas because those quotas are based in part on the size of members' reserves. It's worth noting that OPEC countries claim to have 80 percent of recoverable world oil resources. (For a more detailed analysis of this issue, see my 2012 piece "Has OPEC misled us about the size of its oil reserves? Does it matter?" which is still almost entirely relevant.) Those of us who've been skeptical about recoverable oil reserve claims are not particularly surprised that estimates of worldwide reserves are falling. Another part of the story is that new discoveries meant to replace reserves produced each year are not nearly as great as consumption for many years running. Worldwide consumption has hovered between 27 and 30 billion barrels per year in the last decade. But new discoveries have been far behind with the highest year showing 12.9 billion barrels (2012) of discovery for data from 2011 through 2018. Rystand notes that discoveries were 12.2 billion barrels in 2019 and 10 billion barrels in 2020. But these numbers include turning natural gas discoveries into what their equivalent would be in terms of oil based on their energy content. Last year the industry discovered the lowest amount of oil and gas combined since 1946.
Who Really Controls The World's Oil Reserves? -Big Oil majors in the United States have found themselves the target of much pressure to boost production lately, as prices go wild amid a tight—and tightening—market. At the same time, the U.S. government, as well as the EU, have been looking all over the world for more supply. Wood Mackenzie just had some bad news for them. According to new research from the energy consultancy, more than half—65 percent, to be precise—of the world’s discovered oil and gas reserves are under the control of national oil companies. The reason this is bad news is that, in addition to NOCs like Saudi Aramco, QatarEnergy, and Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, these companies also include Russia’s Rosneft and Gazprom, the National Iranian Oil Company, and Venezuela’s PDVSA. These seven companies, according to Wood Mac analysts, can keep producing oil and gas at their current rates for the next 40 to 60 years or even longer if they tap their spare capacity. It was national oil companies that have made 41 percent of all new oil and gas discoveries in conventional resources since 2011, the analysts noted. What’s more, the NOCs’ share in new discoveries has been on the increase since 2018 as the energy transition push prompts the evolution of their exploration strategies, the report said. In total, national oil companies have discovered more than 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent since 2011, the report said, which was twice what oil majors discovered. But not all is rosy for the NOCs. Unlike the majors, NOCs were significantly worse at commercializing these new discoveries, the Wood Mac analysts noted. Two-thirds of what Big Oil has discovered since 2011 is considered viable and advantaged. On the other hand, two-thirds of what the NOCs have discovered is considered contingent. This could, of course, change with the right incentive. Right now, however, it seems that the NOCs, especially in the Middle East, don’t have much of an incentive, especially as prices begin sliding under the weight of recession fears. The fact remains, however, that most of the already discovered oil and gas in the world, two-thirds of it, is under the control of just seven companies, of which four are subject to sanctions from some of the world’s biggest oil and gas consumers.
US believes OPEC can expand oil production, expects more steps soon - The United States believes that the OPEC countries have the opportunity to increase oil production and expects that they will take steps in this direction in the upcoming weeks, US Senior Adviser for Energy Security Amos Hochstein said on Sunday. Hochstein accompanied US President Joe Biden on his trip to the Middle East, which included a visit to Saudi Arabia and the participation in the summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council. "Based on what we heard on the trip I'm pretty confident that we will see a few more steps in the upcoming weeks," Hochstein said on "Face the Nation" CBS show.
Saudi Arabia Reveals Oil Production Capacity Limits -- Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter, will not have additional capacity to increase production above the 13 million barrels per day (bpd) it has pledged to have by 2027, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the leaders of the United States, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq at a summit this weekend.“We also stress the importance of continuing to inject and encourage investments in fossil energy and its clean technologies over the next two decades to meet the growing global demand, with the importance of assuring investors that the policies adopted do not pose a threat to their investments to avoid their reluctance to invest and to ensure that no shortage of energy supply would affect the international economy,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in his address. “The Kingdom will do its part in this regard, as it announced an increase in its production capacity to 13 million barrels per day, after which the Kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production,” he added, as carried by the Saudi Press Agency.Last year, Saudi Arabia said it expects to have boosted its oil production capacityto 13 million bpd by 2027 from 12 million bpd now.Earlier this year, the Saudis confirmed this target, with Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman, telling TIME in an interview, “We are targeting our production capacity to become 13.4, 13.5 million barrels a day by 2027.” At the Jeddah summit, the Saudi crown prince also criticized the growing backlash against fossil fuels, saying that “The adoption of unrealistic policies to reduce emissions by excluding major sources of energy without taking into account the resulting impact of these policies on the social and economic pillars of sustainable development and global supply chains will lead in the coming years to unprecedented inflation, rise in energy prices, increase unemployment and exacerbate serious social and security problems, including an increase in poverty and famine and crime rates, extremism and terrorism.”
WTI Futures Top $100 as USD Slumps, No US-Saudi Oil Deal -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange mostly moved higher in early trade Monday after Saudi officials indicated no additional production would come online following U.S. President Joe Biden's first visit to the Middle East, while weakness in the U.S. dollar triggered by a repricing of how aggressive Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the next week's meeting further boosted the oil complex. "The decision to increase oil production is within OPEC+ and should follow the policies of keeping the markets balanced not a particular agreement." said Saudi State Minister of Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir on July 16 as U.S. President Biden wrapped up his trip to the Middle East without a pledge for higher crude supplies from the Gulf producers. U.S. officials have confirmed they do not expect Saudi Arabia to immediately boost output and await the outcome of OPEC+ meeting on Aug. 3, which will include Russia. Riyadh was clear it's sticking with the alliance. Furthermore, OPEC+ spare capacity remains low, according to the analysts, with most producers currently pumping at maximum rate. It is unclear how much extra Saudi Arabia could bring to the market and how quickly. In financial markets, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped more than 0.67% against the basket of foreign currencies to trade near 107.195, easing pressure on commodities traded in U.S. currency. Dollar weakness follows market's repricing of how aggressive Federal Reserve will move next week's on raising interest rates, with 67% of investors now expecting a 75-baisis-point hike compared with 33% still anticipating a 100-basis-point increase, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested last week that markets are overestimating the potential for a 1% increase in federal funds rates but added the central bank will be data-driven in making its rate decision. This sentiment was supported by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic who said Friday that moving interest rates "too dramatically" could undermine the positive trends still seen in the economy and add to the already large amount of uncertainty. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, West Texas Intermediate August contract rallied $1.93 to $99.54 barrel (bbl). International benchmark Brent for September delivery climbed above $103 bbl, up by more than $2 bbl in overnight trading. NYMEX August RBOB futures advanced 7.65 cents to $3.2897 gallon, while front-month ULSD added 2.27 cents to $3.7217 gallon.
Oil price up US$5 on weaker US$, tight supplies - Oil prices rose more than US$5 on Monday, boosted by dollar weakness and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates by a full percentage point at its next meeting to combat inflation. Brent crude futures for September settlement gained $5.11, or 5.1%, to settle at $106.27 a barrel, after rising 2.1% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery settled up $5.01, or 5.1%, at $102.60 after rising by 1.9% in the previous session. On Friday two U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicated the central bank would likely only raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting. Previous reports that the Fed was considering a 100 basis point decision sent markets lower late last week. The U.S. dollar .DXY retreated from multi-year highs on Monday, supporting commodities prices. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies. "Today’s strong advance resulted largely from a sizable and broad-based weakening in the U.S. dollar that has been providing a key driver behind daily oil price swings during the past several weeks," Both Brent and WTI last week registered their biggest weekly declines in about a month. Oil supplies remain tight. As expected, U.S. President Joe Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia did not yield any pledge from the top OPEC producer to boost oil supply. Biden wants Gulf oil producers to step up output to help to lower oil prices. Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer, according to the letter seen by Reuters, potentially ratcheting up the conflict between Moscow and Europe. That added support to oil prices, as traders saw it potentially as a precursor to actions by Russia to use energy as a weapon. "The other clear risk...is that Russia will further slash energy supplies to Europe to try to raise the cost of supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions,"
Oil Prices Slip On Recession Worries --Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after surging more than $5 a barrel in the previous session on concerns about tight supply. Benchmark Brent crude futures declined 0.6 percent to $105.60 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down half a percent at $98.89. New COVID-19 cases in China jumped to almost 700 and data showed the euro zone's inflation accelerated as estimated in June to set a fresh record high, raising worries about a possible recession. Meanwhile, reports emerged that European Central Bank policymakers may consider a bigger-than-expected rate hike later in the week. The euro rallied after Reuters said policymakers will discuss whether to raise interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday to tame record-high inflation. Amid lingering concerns over gas supply from Russia, investors await U.S. crude supply data from the American Petroleum Institute later in the day for further direction.
WTI Lifted by Stocks Rally While USD Slides to 2-Week Low - West Texas Intermediate futures reversed higher in afternoon trade Tuesday helped by a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index and rallying stock market as investors reassessed risks of a recession amid better-than-expected earnings reports from top U.S. companies and an improved macroeconomic outlook. Stocks on Wall Street staged a remarkable rebound on Tuesday, sending Dow Jones Industrials more than 700 points higher and the S&P 500 up 2.7% late afternoon on the back of better-than-expected earnings results for the second quarter. Oilfield services provider Halliburton rose 0.9% after its profit and revenue topped forecasts. Further spurring gains in financial markets, Reuters reported Russian energy giant Gazprom may indeed restart Nord Stream 1, a key natural gas pipeline to Europe, on Thursday (July 21) in line with a routine maintenance schedule. The pipeline, which accounts for one-third of Russian gas exports to the European Union, was halted for 10 days of annual maintenance on July 11. Speculation had swirled in recent days as to whether Russia would restart the pipeline after Gazprom declared force majeure on several European natural gas buyers citing "past and current shortfalls in gas deliveries," according to German utility Uniper. The European Commission said this morning that it did not expect the pipeline would be back online. The restart of the major gas pipeline would be welcomed news for the European Union as it battles a record-breaking heatwave that has gripped much of the continent in recent days, pushing its energy systems to the limit. German day-ahead power prices rose to 397 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest since March, while the French equivalent climbed to the highest since April at 521 euros. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate August contract advanced $1.62 to $104.22 bbl, with the next-month delivery WTI expanding its discount to $3.48 bbl. Brent crude futures for September delivery climbed above $107 bbl, up $1.08 bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures advanced 4.32 cents to $3.3075 gallon, while front-month ULSD fell 2.87 cents to $3.6268 gallon.
WTI Leaks Lower After Crude, Gasoline Builds - Solid risk-on moves in stocks, a weaker dollar, and a disruption along the Keystone pipeline were enough - in thin liquidity - to send oil prices notably higher (WTI back above $100).“Right now liquidity is thin, people are away on holiday, there’s more machines than humans,” Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview.“We can continue to trade in this very technical band. But structurally this is a market defined by underinvestment.”Oil markets have been volatile in recent weeks as traders navigated concerns that a looming recession would hurt demand and the fallout from a stronger dollar against the signs of tight physical supplies.Signals of demand destruction are showing up in inventory data and all algo-eyes will be tonight's API print for a hint of what's to come tomorrow... API
- Crude +1.86mm
- Cushing +523k
- Gasoline +1.29mm
- Distillates -2.153mm
If API is confirmed during tomorrow's DOE data, then this would be three straight weeks of crude builds (and rising stocks at Cushing). Gasoline inventories also built for a second straight week... WTI hovered around $100.60 ahead of the API print and slipped very modestly lower on the builds...
Oil Prices Unmoved By Small Crude, Gasoline Build - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a build this week for crude oil of 1.860 million barrels, while analysts predicted a build of 333,000 barrels.The build comes as the Department of Energy released 5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in Week Ending July 15, to 480.1 million barrels.U.S. crude inventories have shed some 61 million barrels since the start of 2021, with a 1.83 million barrel gain since the start of 2020, according to API data.In the week prior, the API reported a build in crude oil inventories of 4.762 million barrels after analysts had predicted a draw of 1.933 million barrels.WTI was trading up on Tuesday as fears of the tight market over take recession fears—at least for today. WTI was trading up 1.32% on the day at 2:09 p.m. ET in the runup to the release at $104 per barrel—a rise of roughly $8.50 on the week. Brent crude was trading up 1.02% on the day at $107.30—a nearly $8 rise on the week.U.S. crude oil production data for the week ending July 8 slipped by 100,000 bpd to 12 million bpd, according to the latest EIA data. The API also reported a build in gasoline inventories this week of 1.290 million barrels for the week ending July 15, compared to the previous week's 2.927-million-barrel build.Distillate stocks saw a draw of 2.153 million barrels for the week, compared to last week's 3.262-million-barrel increase.Cushing inventories rose by 523,000 barrels this week, on top of last week’s build of 298,000. Official EIA Cushing inventories for week ending July 8 was 21.646 million, up slightly from 21.330 in the prior week. At 5:05 pm, ET, WTI was trading up at $103.80 (+1.17%), with Brent trading up at $107.20 (+0.86%).
WTI Extends Losses After Large Gasoline Build Signals Demand Destruction - Oil prices have slipped lower overnight following API's reported builds for crude and gasoline and thanks to a slight headwind from a stronger dollar. Optimism about the return of gas flows from Russia tomorrow ease pressure on the potential 'transition' demand to oil also.“Right now liquidity is thin, people are away on holiday, there’s more machines than humans,” Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We can continue to trade in this very technical band. But structurally this is a market defined by underinvestment.”All eyes are on the official data this morning for signs of demand destruction...“The market is hyper focused on demand metrics and recent US demand data has failed to inspire confidence,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. Today's official data will be closely watched for bulls to reengage with the market. DOE
- Crude -445k
- Cushing +1.143mm
- Gasoline +3.498mm
- Distillates -1.295mm
US Crude inventories unexpectedly drew-down last week (-445k) but gasoline stocks surged by 3.498mm barrels (the second straight week of increases)... There was a 5mm draw from SPR last week. Total nationwide oil inventories, including commercial stocks and oil held in the SPR, fell by 5.4 million barrels in the week to July 15. Last week’s implied gasoline demand data was jarring to say the least – the sheer volume of decline in the weekly figure, whether it proves to be an outlier or not, represents a stark shift around the demand destruction narrative. With a week-on-week decline of 1.35 million barrels a day, the plunge is the third largest on record dating back over thirty years, only bested by the first two weeks of Covid lockdowns in March 2020.
Oil slips on lackluster U.S. summer gasoline demand -- Oil prices slipped on Wednesday, after U.S. government data showed lower gasoline demand during the peak summer driving season and as interest rate hikes by central banks to fight inflation fed fears the economy could slow, cutting energy demand. However, prices pared losses during the session after TC Energy said that the Keystone pipeline, one of Canada's major oil export arteries, was operating at reduced rates for a third day on Wednesday. Repairs continued on a third-party power facility in South Dakota, prompting concerns about tighter supplies. Brent crude prices for September settled 43 cents lower at $106.92 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August settled 1.88% lower at $102.26. The WTI contract expires on Wednesday. U.S. gasoline inventories rose 3.5 million barrels last week, government data showed, far exceeding analysts' forecasts in a Reuters poll for a 71,000-barrel rise. Product supplied of gasoline - a proxy for demand - was about 8.5 million barrels per day, or about 7.6% lower than the same time a year ago, the data showed. "Gasoline demand is subpar to say the least," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. "Certainly these high gas prices have undermined consumer confidence." Americans were shocked in June as pump prices climbed to a record of over $5 per gallon. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 446,000 barrels last week, data showed, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel rise. Oil prices have been extremely volatile, caught in a tug-of-war between supply fears caused by Western sanctions on Russia and worries that the fight against inflation could weaken the global economy and cut demand. On Friday, open interest in New York Mercantile Exchange futures fell to its lowest since September 2015 as concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep raising U.S. interest rates led investors to cut exposure to risky assets. Analysts expect oil supply tightness to keep supporting prices while U.S. shale oil production expands at a modest pace. "With little room for OPEC+ to increase production, the oil market will struggle to balance out in the coming months, thereby propping up prices," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. Limited supplies have kept Brent above $105 a barrel and prompt Brent inter-month spreads in wide backwardation at over $4.40 a barrel. In a backwardated market, front-month prices are higher than those in future months.
Oil prices fall amid demand concerns --Crude oil prices declined on Thursday due to demand concerns in the US. Around 1130 am, the September contract of Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $106.30 per barrel, down 0.58% from previous close. The September contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1.88% to $102.26 per barrel on NYMEX. According to data, supply of gasoline in the US was about 8.5 million barrels per day last week, around 7.6% lower on year, indicating a fall in demand. Further, rise in gasoline inventory also weighed on prices. Last week, US gasoline stockpiles rose 3.5 million barrels. Ravindra Rao, head of commodity research at Kotak Securities, said, “Crude trades lower weighed down by mixed inventory report which noted an unexpected decline in US crude oil stocks but also a sharp rise in gasoline stocks reflecting weaker demand despite ongoing summer driving season." “Also weighing on crude are demand concerns amid disappointing US economic data and persisting virus risks in China. Supply concerns have, however, kept prices supported. Crude rallied sharply in last few days however with mixed inventory report, demand concerns and shaky risk sentiment, we expect to see some correction," he said. The fall in crude prices comes as a relief for India as the country imports 85% of its energy requirements. Given the fall in global prices, the central government on Wednesday reduced windfall tax on crude oil imposed at the beginning of this month by about 27% to ₹17,000 a tonne. It also withdrew an export tax on petrol and lowered the same on diesel and jet fuel. Domestic retail fuel prices have largely remained unchanged for about two months now. In the national capital, petrol is sold for ₹96.72 and diesel is priced at ₹89.62 per litre.
Oil slumps $3/bbl on gasoline stockpiles, rate hikes and resuming supply -Oil prices fell more than $3 a barrel on Thursday on higher U.S. gasoline stockpiles and after a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike stoked demand worries, while returning oil supply from Libya and the resumption of Russia’s gas flows to Europe eased supply restraints. Brent crude futures settled at $103.86 a barrel, falling $3.06, or 2.9%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $96.35 a barrel, declining $3.53, or 3.5%. Both were down more than $5 earlier in the session. U.S. gasoline futures settled at $3.15, losing 13 cents, or 3.8% following a jump of 3.5 million barrels of the commodity in storage last week, U.S. government data showed on Wednesday, far exceeding analyst forecasts. [EIA/S] “If you don’t need the gasoline, then you don’t need the crude oil to make the gasoline, and that’s the math that’s killing crude oil right now,” said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho. Oil futures trading volumes have also been thin and prices volatile as traders attempt to square weaker energy demand with tighter supply resulting from the loss of Russian barrels after the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Flows through Russia’s Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, partially resumed after being shut for maintenance on July 11. The pipeline had already run on reduced volumes following a dispute sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The resumption of Nord Stream gas flows appears to be conjuring up images of a more conciliatory posture on the part of Russia regarding continued movement of crude and products into Europe in the coming weeks/month,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in a note. The European Central Bank on Thursday joined many other central banks in raising interest rates, focusing on fighting runaway inflation rather than the economic downturn, which can weigh on oil demand. The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates to stimulate stalling economic growth. On Wednesday, Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) said crude production had resumed at several oilfields after the lifting of force majeure on oil exports last week. The reduced flow on one of Canada’s major oil export arteries, the Keystone pipeline, should only have a slight impact on oil deliveries, analysts said.
WTI Slides Below $95 on Growth Concerns, Libyan Supplies -Oil futures eroded further in early morning trade Friday, with all petroleum contracts on course for hefty losses this week after overnight data out of Europe showed manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in July, heightening concerns about recession in the bloc, while the return of Libya's oil exports to the global market further weighed on the complex. The Eurozone Manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to a 25-month low 49.6 in July compared with expectations for a 51.0 showing. Concerns over weakening demand were exacerbated by energy, supply and inflation worries to push business expectations lower, and also cause a pullback in new hiring. The bloc's Services PMI also dropped sharply to 50.6 in July from 53.0 in the previous month. The indicator reached a 15-months low. "The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the third quarter as business activity slipped into decline in July and forward-looking indicators hint at worse to come in the months ahead," S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson, commented on the data release. Excluding pandemic lockdown months, July's contraction is the first signal by the PMI since June 2013, indicative of the economy contracting at a 0.1% quarterly rate. Although only modest at present, a steep loss of new orders, falling backlogs of work and gloomier business expectations all point to the rate of decline gathering further momentum as the summer progresses. On Thursday, the European Central Bank surprised the markets with a larger-than-expected rate hike of 50 basis points, with the rate hike the first in 11 years. Inflation in the EU climbed to a record-high 8.6% in June, up from 8.1% in the previous month, dashing hopes for a retreat in high consumer prices. This comes against a backdrop of slowing growth, the war in Ukraine and threats to energy supplies. Compounding the bearish development, Libya is restoring oil production, with output rising above 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) after restrictions on exports were lifted. Output is expected to return to 1.2 million bpd within a week to 10 days, according to government officials. The premium of the nearest crude futures contract over the next month eased, indicating cooling concerns about market scarcity. Near 7:15 a.m. EDT, NYMEX September West Texas Intermediate futures declined $1.58 to $94.75 barrel (bbl), while the front-month Brent contract fell $1.52 to $102.34 bbl. NYMEX RBOB August futures slumped 5.32 cents to $3.0963 gallon and ULSD futures fell 3.69 cents to $3.5534 gallon.
U.S. Crude Ends Below $95/bbl as EU Tweaks Russian Oil Sanctions (Reuters) -U.S. crude prices settled below $95 a barrel for the first time since April in choppy trading on Friday after the European Union said it would allow Russian state-owned companies to ship oil to third countries under an adjustment of sanctions agreed by member states this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled $1.65, or 1.7%, lower at $94.70 a barrel, while Brent crude futures fell 66 cents, or 0.6%, to $103.20. WTI closed lower for the third straight week, pummelled over the past two sessions after data showed that U.S. gasoline demand had dropped nearly 8% from a year earlier in the midst of the peak summer driving season, hit by record prices at the pump. In contrast, signs of strong demand in Asia propped up the Brent benchmark, which settled higher for the first time in six weeks. Trading in oil futures has been volatile in recent weeks as traders try to reconcile possibilities of further interest rate hikes that could cut demand against tight supply from the loss of Russian barrels. Russian state-owned companies Rosneft and Gazprom will be able to ship oil to third countries in a bid to limit the risks to global energy security. Under tweaks to sanctions on Russia that came into force on Friday payments related to purchases of Russian seaborne crude oil by EU companies would not be banned. The EU announcement comes after Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said it will not supply crude to countries that decide to impose a price cap on its oil and instead redirect it to countries which are ready to "cooperate" with Russia. "Perceptions are growing that the U.S. and EU will implement price caps on Russian oil by year end," "Past history shows that government-induced price caps on commodities are usually short lived and can result in exaggerated prices soon after," he added. Prices, however, were held back by worries of interest rate hikes that could slash demand and the resumption of some Libyan crude oil output. Libya's oil production is at more than 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) and will reach 1.2 million bpd by next month, the Libyan oil ministry said. Iraq has the capacity to increase its oil production by 200,000 bpd this year if asked, an executive of Iraq's Basra Oil Co said. U.S. oil rigs, an early indicator of future output, remained steady at 599 this week, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes. The global economy looks increasingly likely to be heading into a serious slowdown, just as central banks aggressively reverse ultra-loose monetary policy adopted during the pandemic to support growth, data showed on Friday. Recent moves in crude oil and interest rate futures anticipate a downturn in the business cycle that will cause oil consumption to dip before the end of the end of the year and into the first three months of 2023. Investors were also watching for the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates next week. Fed officials have indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates by 75 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting. Still, demand in India has remained strong, with refining holding above pre-pandemic levels, while China is also set to make great efforts to consolidate its economic recovery particularly in the third quarter, state media reported. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude and Brent futures and options positions in the week to July 19, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Intercontinental Exchange showed.
Russia pounds Ukraine as Putin gets Iran's backing -- Russian missiles struck cities and villages in eastern and southern Ukraine, hitting homes, a school and a community center on Tuesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin won strong support support from Iran for his country’s military operation.In Kramatorsk, a city in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk province considered a likely Russian occupation target, one person was killed and 10 wounded in an airstrike that hit a five-story apartment building, regional Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said.Fresh blood stained the concrete amid green leaves that were torn off trees as nearby apartments on at least two floors burned. Shrapnel was placed in a small pile near an empty playground.“There was no one here. Everything is ruined,” said Halyna Maydannyk, a resident of one burned apartment. “Who knows why they’re doing this? We were all living peacefully.” Kramatorsk residents Mykola Zavodovskyi and Tetiana Zavodovska stood in bandages outside a hospital. They heard a loud clap and went to their balcony to investigate, then everything exploded and the windows shattered.“Probably it was a rocket, and probably it was brought down by Ukrainian forces,” Zavodovska said.The midday strike came after Kyrylenko had reported four earlier Russian strikes in Kramatorsk and urged civilians to evacuate.On the political front, Putin visited Tehran, where Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the West opposes an “independent and strong” Russia. Khamenei said that if Russia hadn’t sent troops into Ukraine, it would have faced an attack from NATO, echoing Putin’s own rhetoric and reflecting increasingly close ties between Moscow and Tehran as they both face severe Western sanctions. NATO allies have bolstered their military presence in Eastern Europe and provided Ukraine with weapons to help counter the Russian attack.The Tehran talks also touched on attempts to unblock Ukrainian grain exports, a problem that is causing global shortages and driving up food prices. Putin told reporters after his meetings that Russia would help facilitate such shipments if the West lifts restrictions on Russian grain exports. He noted that “the Americans have effectively lifted the restrictions on Russian fertilizer supplies to global markets,” adding that “if they sincerely want to improve the situation in the global food market, I hope they will do the same with Russian grain exports.”In the Odesa region in southern Ukraine, Russian forces fired seven Kalibr cruise missiles overnight. The Russian Defense Ministry said strikes on the village of Bilenke achieved a legitimate military goal and “destroyed depots of ammunition for weapons supplied by the United States and European countries.”
Russia’s Campaign in Ukraine: Nearing an Inflection Point? by Yves Smith - Notice how the amount of Western reporting on Ukraine has fallen off dramatically? That’s because the war is going well for Russia and its allies.Russia is continuing its steady and systematic grind through Donbass. However, Russia has also picked up the pace of its shelling, has moved some of its best equipment into Ukraine, presumably pre-positioning, and just had the head of its Ministry of Defense, Sergey Shoigu, visit key commanders in Donbass. Not only did Shoigu state that Russia would put an end to the Ukraine shelling of civilian targets in Donetsk, but also “gave the necessary instructions for further buildup of the troops actions in all operational directions.” In concert, Russia has moved its most advanced armor to the front lines en masse (see here at 42:45 Part of this effort to stop the Ukraine shelling of civilians is recent and large uptick in Russian ballistic missile attacks. Jacob Dreizen (please filter out the Trumpian views for the comments on weaponry) describes starting at 14:10 of his latest video how the Ukrainians are so low on artillery that they are forced to use it strategically and are sending off 1-2 big salvos a day, targeting Russian ammo dumps behind the lines, with some effect. However, other Russia-friendly sources have claimed that Ukraine has been using Western munitions, including the HIMARS, to shell civilians in Donbass. Per Dreizen, Ukraine uses their Tochka-U’s to tie up Russian missile defenses and then send some HIMARS and a few get through.Russia, which had stopped the active use of the Tochka-U’s to deploy the more advanced Iskanders, has pulled its Tochka-U’s out of mothballs to respond, at least tripling its ballistic missile capability. Dreizen says that Russia used to fire 3-4 Iskanders daily and in the last 2-4 days is now sending off 10 Tochka-U’s a day plus the Iskanders.: Military Summary also confirms a shift in Russian priorities (see at 6:30), with reduced shelling in Donbass and a big increase in Mykolaiv and near Kharkiv.In parallel, Russia also blew up a meeting between some senior Ukraine military officers and foreign weapons dealers, with total dead estimated in the hundreds. While many observers would contend that the arms merchants are not combatants and deliberately killing them amounts to a war crime, the Russian position is presumably otherwise, since they are taking credit for this kill. From RIA Novosti, via machine translation:
Zelenskyy fires his top security chief and prosecutor, citing treason and 'crimes against the foundations of the state's national security' - In his nightly national address on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced hundreds of criminal proceedings resulting from treason investigations in the nation's security services and among prosecutors in the country."As of today, 651 criminal proceedings have been registered regarding treason and collaboration activities of employees of prosecutors' offices, pretrial investigation bodies, and other law enforcement agencies," Zelenskyy said. "In particular, more than 60 employees of the prosecutor's office and the security service of Ukraine remained in the occupied territory and are working against our state."Zelenskyy added that on Sunday he dismissed the Prosecutor General, Iryna Venediktova, from her position and fired Ivan Bakanov, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine, citing the growing concerns about treason in their offices. "Such an array of crimes against the foundations of the national security of the state and the connections detected between the employees of the security forces of Ukraine and the special services of Russia pose very serious questions to the relevant leadership. Each of these questions will receive a proper answer."It has been 144 days since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In that time, Russia has fired more than 3,000 cruise missiles at populated areas of Ukraine and killed more than 10,000 civilians, according to the United Nations. Zelenskyy said as violence spread through the region, members of the Ukrainian security services and law enforcement offices shared secret information with invading forces and cooperated with Russian officials.
Ukraine’s messy internal politics rears its head as Zelenskyy sacks top officials - — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s removal of two top law enforcement officials Sunday may indicate the fraying of an unofficial agreement among political factions to pause politicking and present a unified front against invading Russian forces. A Western official close to Zelenskyy’s administration expressed concern to POLITICO that the move appeared to go in the opposite direction of the EU’s request for Kyiv to crack down on corruption and increase the independence of its law enforcement agencies if it wants to become a member of the bloc. Indeed, many political experts and anti-corruption activists viewed the removal of Ivan Bakanov, head of Ukraine’s state intelligence service, the SBU, and Iryna Venediktova, the country’s prosecutor general, by presidential decree as Zelenskyy taking advantage of extraordinary wartime authority to consolidate his own power. “It’s not a move to do the right thing. It’s a move to gain more control over our top law enforcement bodies,” Tetiana Shevchuk, a lawyer and activist at the Kyiv-based Anti-Corruption Action Center, said in an interview. Zelenskyy’s office clarified Monday that the officials had been suspended from duty and that the president would later decide whether to seek their dismissal, pending the outcome of investigations into their agencies. By the evening local time, Zelenskyy had officially asked the Ukrainian parliament to approve the permanent removal of Bakanov. In his late-night video address on Sunday, Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian authorities had registered 651 treason proceedings against officials in the country’s top law enforcement agencies for allegedly collaborating with Russia or working against the state’s goals. He did not make clear whether Bakanov and Venediktova were among those being investigated for treason but said that a probe of their officers was underway. More than 60 SBU agents were working against Kyiv in areas of Ukraine currently under Russian control, Zelenskyy added. He vowed to hold accountable every official working against Ukraine. “Such an array of crimes against the foundations of the national security of the state and the connections detected between the employees of the security forces of Ukraine and the special services of Russia pose very serious questions to the relevant leadership,” he said. In Washington, State Department spokesperson Ned Price on Monday signaled no alarm within the Biden administration. “We invest not in personalities, but in institutions,” he said, adding that he expects the new prosecutor general in Ukraine to have a good relationship with their American counterparts. “Much of what we do pass to the Office of the Prosecutor General, on a routine basis, is open-source information,” he said. Shevchuk said the removal of Bakanov and Venediktov would further strengthen the influence of Andriy Yermak, the president’s chief of staff, and Oleh Tatarov, a deputy head of the administration who has been accused of corruption, due to their close links to the new acting heads of the SBU and PGO. Oleksiy Symonenko, a deputy prosecutor general, was tapped to fill the role of acting prosecutor general, while Vasyl Malyuk, a top intelligence official, was given the role of acting head of the SBU. Both men are seen as being close allies of Yermak and Tatarov, Shevchuk said.
UN report confirms Ukrainians’ use of civilians as “human shields” - A recent UN report from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has confirmed that the Ukrainian Army, as it battles Russian forces for control of the eastern Donbass region, is purposefully putting civilians in harm’s way as “human shields.” In March, the Ukrainian government blamed Russian forces for the deaths of more than 50 elderly and disabled residents of a care home in the village of Stara Krasnyanka in the eastern province of Lugansk. According to Ukrainian officials, a fire broke out in the facility following a supposedly unprovoked attack on the innocents by Russian forces. In reality—in a case the report found to be “emblematic” of the war—on March 7, days before the attack, Ukrainian forces had taken up positions within the care home “as it had strategic value due to its proximity to an important road.” Previous requests by the facility to local Ukrainian authorities to evacuate residents were denied due to the fact that Kiev had mined the surrounding area and blocked roads, thereby preventing anyone from fleeing. Two days later on March 9, as Russian forces approached the care home, the two sides exchanged fire. “It remains unclear which side opened fire first,” states the OHCHR. On March 11, 71 patients with disabilities and 15 staff remained in the facility with no access to electricity or water, despite the continued presence of Ukrainian forces. They apparently made no effort to evacuate them in the face of an impending battle. During the morning, Russian forces, clearly aware by this time of the presence of Ukrainian military within the building, attacked with “heavy weapons,” causing a fire to break out. Some staff and residents were able to flee to a nearby forest and were later “met by Russian affiliated armed groups, who provided them with assistance,” reports the OHCHR. The section of the report on the case of Stara Krasnyanka concludes by stating, “According to various accounts, at least 22 patients survived the attack, but the exact number of persons killed remains unknown.” As the UN document clearly demonstrates in the case of Stara Krasnyanka, it was the Ukrainian forces “who took up positions either in residential areas or near civilian objects, from where they launched military operations without taking measures for the protection of civilians present.” Such tactics are specifically prohibited by Article 28 of Geneva Convention IV and Article 51(7) of additional Protocol I and constitute a war crime. But despite the role played by Kiev in these situations, civilian deaths in these contexts are described as the product of the “indiscriminate” violence of Russian “orcs.” They are widely publicized in Western corporate news outlets as further examples of an engrained Russian barbarity, which allegedly can only be prevented by sending billions more in weapons and aid to Ukraine’s government.
Ukraine's Defense Chief Offers Ukraine As A 'Testing Ground' For NATO Weapons - Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Tuesday openly offered Ukraine as a venue to test NATO weapons against Russia in an online conversation with the director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.Reznikov said that Ukraine "is essentially a testing ground" for the advanced weaponry the US and its allies are pouring into the country. "Many weapons are now getting tested in the field in the real conditions of the battle against the Russian Army, which has plenty of modern systems of its own," he said. “I believe that we will receive long-range weapons from our partners sooner or later,” says Ukrainian Defense Minister @oleksiireznikov. He adds that giving #Ukraine Stinger missiles was once viewed as impossible.Watch more from #ACFrontPage here: https://t.co/YCbrwH29Rn pic.twitter.com/Ngtmjq6ULE The Ukrainian military chief made the offer in a fresh pitch for more Western arms. "We are interested in testing modern systems in the fight against the enemy and we are inviting arms manufacturers to test the new products here," he said.One weapons system that is getting its first use on the battlefield in Ukraine is the Polish Krab artillery system that was provided by Warsaw."So, I think for our partners in Poland, in the United States, France, or Germany, it’s a good chance to test the equipment. So, give us the tools. We will finish the job and you will have all the new information," Reznikov said.The Western response to the war in Ukraine has been a boon for US arms makers, who are making money sending weapons into the war zone, replenishing NATO stockpiles, and selling arms to European countries that have decided to boost military spending.
South American Trade Bloc Mercosur Snubs Ukrainian President Zelensky --On Wednesday (July 20) the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, was denied the opportunity to give a speech at the 60th Summit of Presidents of Mercosur being held this week. Zelensky had asked Paraguayan president Mario Abdo, the host of this year’s summit, to let him address the South American trade bloc, which comprises the governments of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.The bloc’s members failed to reach agreement on Zelensky’s request, said Paraguay’s deputy foreign minister Raul Cano. Zelensky has already addressed a number of national parliaments, including the UK’s House of Commons, the US Congress and the Australian parliament, since the war began. He has also spoken via video link at regional and international forums such as NATO, the G7, the World Economic Forum, the United Nations, the African Union and even the Cannes Film Festival.But he was not welcome at Mercosur. Although Cano declined to disclose which states rejected Zelensky’s attendance at the event, it is not hard to guess their identity. After all, neither Brazil nor Argentina were willing to sign a February 25 Organization of American States (OAS) resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while the other two Mercosur members, Uruguay and Paraguay, did.Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro was in Moscow meeting Putin just days before Russia’s invasion began. In the last month he has received assurances from Putin that Brazil would continue to receive Russian-produced fertilizers while he himself has pledged that Brazil will buy as much diesel from Russia as it can, despite international sanctions against Moscow. Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández was also in Russia in early February, where he held discussions with Putin about the possibility of Russia extending a loan to Argentina.Most Latin American countries have tried to strike a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They include the region’s two heavyweight economies, Brazil and Mexico, which together account for roughly 60% of the region’s GDP. While both countries voted to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the March 2 emergency meeting of the United Nations, they have lambasted the US-NATO-led push to isolate Russia from the global economy. Both countries are currently non-permanent members of the UN Security Council. Brazilian diplomats already tried to lever their position on the Security Council to soften the language of a council resolution condemning the actions of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
Russia Declares War Goals Have Expanded After West Pumped More Arms Into Ukraine - With the Donbas region now largely under control of Russian forces five months into the invasion... is Moscow setting its sights on the rest of Ukraine? It appears this could be the case, based on provocative Wednesday remarks by Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, captured in a fresh FT report. "Russia’s foreign minister said Moscow had expanded its war aims for its invasion of Ukraine, the strongest sign yet that it seeks to annex parts of the country currently under its control," FT introduces, citing that:Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia’s goals were more ambitious than Moscow had declared at the start of the war in February, when it claimed its goal was to "liberate" the eastern Donbas border region. Moscow’s war aims now extend to the provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, which are mostly occupied by Russian forces, Lavrov said. Lavrov also said a "number of other territories" are additionally included in the new war aims, though without naming them.President Vladimir Putin and his top generals within the opening two months of the war made it clear that a central goal was to "liberate" the Donbas region, but speculation has since abounded over whether the Kremlin would keep going beyond this territory.Some political analysts in the West - the University of Chicago's John Mearsheimer foremost among them - have stated their belief that Moscow initially sought to limit operations to the East, in defense of the pro-Russian breakaway republics; however, Mearsheimer has argued that many variables have likely caused Putin to expand beyond these initial goals. Chief among the battlefield variables remains Washington and the West's continually escalating involvement, especially in weapons shipments - including longer range missile systems. Lavrov alluded to this in his Wednesday comments, "If the west continues to pump Ukraine full of weaponry out of impotent rage or a desire to exacerbate the situation [ . . .] then that means our geographical tasks will move even further from the current line," he said.The conditional, 'warning message' nature of his wording suggests that the Kremlin may not have extended the goal posts just yet. Lavrov referenced that the conflict is "an ongoing process" during the statements.
Russia and Ukraine sign grain exports deal, UN chief says - Ukraine and Russia have agreed a deal that would allow the resumption of vital grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, a major diplomatic breakthrough aimed at easing a global food crisis sparked by the war, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Friday. Ministers from both countries signed an agreement brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in Istanbul. The breakthrough followed months of negotiations, and promises to unblock ports on the Black Sea to allow the safe passage of grain and oilseeds -- some of Ukraine's most important exports. Russia has so far been blocking maritime access to those ports, meaning that millions of tons of Ukrainian grain has not been exported to the many countries that rely on it. "Promoting the welfare of humanity has been the driving force of these talks," Guterres said Friday. "The question has not been what is good for one side or the other. The focus has been on what matters most for the people of our world. And let there be no doubt -- this is an agreement for the world." Guterres said the deal will bring relief for developing countries and help stabilize global food prices, "which were already at record levels even before the war -- a true nightmare for developing countries." The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 47 million people have moved into a stage of acute hunger as a consequence of the Ukraine war, and Western officials have accused Russia of using food as a weapon during its invasion. The deal will also allow the unimpeded access of Russian fertilizers to global markets. Russia is a major producer of fertilizers, which are vital to maximizing food production, and the cost of the product has spiralled since the invasion. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said "millions of people will be relieved of this danger of hunger" as a result of the deal. "In the coming days we will see the start of ship traffic and many countries will have a breath of fresh air," Erdogan said.
Indonesia considering scrapping domestic sales rule for palm oil exports - Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding back a recovery of palm oil fruit prices, the trade minister said on Friday. Since ending a temporary ban on exports in late May, the world's biggest palm oil producer has required companies to sell a portion of output at home before issuing export permits, a policy known as DMO, in a bid to control cooking oil prices. The temporary ban on shipments and the DMO policy, however, had led to a surge in palm oil stocks, storage issues and a slump in the price of palm oil fruit received by farmers. Minister Zulkifli Hasan told reporters that previous policies to address such issues, including a temporary removal of an export levy and a larger export quota, had failed to slash stocks quickly. "I am considering removing DMO requirements so exports can go out quickly, but I want assurances from our friends at refineries," he told reporters during a visit to a market, according to a voice recording provided by the ministry. Indonesian authorities were aware of anticipated high demand from India and Pakistan for the upcoming Diwali holidays and would ensure that buyers had enough supply, Zulkifli said. Indonesia's palm oil industry has been lobbying for an easing in export restrictions and taxes, arguing that otherwise produce may go to waste, particularly with the harvest set to peak in coming months and with storage at capacity.
Satellite photos show China destroyed object similar to Japan plane -- China has destroyed an object believed to be shaped like a Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) aircraft in a desert area of Xinjiang, Nikkei has learned through analysis of satellite photographs with experts. The object may have been used for missile attack training on hypothetical targets in Japan.
Sri Lanka 'can't get out of crisis without China,' analyst says - Sri Lanka won't be able to resolve its debt restructuring problems without help from China as the country teeters on the brink of economic collapse, according to analysts. Sri Lanka has defaulted on its debt, plunging the island nation into its worst financial crisis since independence in 1948. In addition to fuel shortage, the country also faces the prospect of running out of food, staples and medicines.Public frustration over the deepening economic crisis has spilled over to raging street protests in recent months. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has been blamed for the economic mismanagement, was forced to resign and fled overseas last week as anger toward his government spiraled.Acting President Ranil Wickremesinghe declared a state of emergency on Sunday, in an effort to quell protests ahead of a vote in parliament on Wednesday to elect a new leader.China's willingness to provide substantial debt relief to Sri Lanka will be vital to accelerate the debt restructuring and in helping the country get out of its current situation, said Umesh Moramudali, lecturer at University of Colombo."You can't get out of this crisis without China," Moramudali, told CNBC's "Streets Signs Asia" on Tuesday. "China needs to agree to restructure its debt, which is not their usual path to take."China has invested billions in Sri Lanka under its Belt and Road Initiative. The massive infrastructure program was launched in 2013 and aims to build ports, roads, railways and pipelines across Asia, Europe and Africa."Sri Lanka needs to come to a common framework and what the international community is insisting is that China also agrees to a common framework for a debt restructure," Moramudali added. "It's not quite clear yet, what level of negotiation we are in, particularly with China."At a regular press briefing last week, China's foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that "shortly after the Sri Lankan government announced to suspend international debt payments, Chinese financial institutions reached out to the Sri Lankan side and expressed their readiness to find a proper way to handle the matured debts related to China and help Sri Lanka to overcome the current difficulties."
US dollar reaches record high in interbank, closing at Rs215.20 - The dollar continued its relentless upward march against the rupee on Monday with the greenback gaining Rs4.25 in interbank trade. According to the Forex Association of Pakistan, the dollar was trading at a record Rs216 against the local currency at 3:12pm, up Rs5, or 2.4 per cent, from Friday’s close of Rs210.95. The dollar eventually closed at Rs215.2, with the local currency depreciating 1.97pc, according to data shared by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Similarly, the price of the euro was increased by Rs7.66 and closed at Rs218.23 against the previous day’s closing of Rs211.57. The Japanese Yen gained 04 paisa to close at Rs1.55, whereas an increase of Rs7.60 was witnessed in the exchange rate of the British Pound, which was traded at Rs257.24 as compared to its last closing of Rs249.64. The exchange rates of Emirates Dirham and Saudi Riyal increased by Rs1.12 to close at Rs58.58 and Rs57.30 respectively. Meanwhile, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Central Secretary General Asad Umar lashed out at the government for its failure to rein in the fast depreciation of rupee against dollar. In a statement on Monday, Asad said that Pakistan suffered the most due to the poor decisions of the imported government, as Pakistani rupee hit a new low against the US dollar. He attributed the rupee free fall to the political uncertainty, which he said was bleeding the economy and inflicting tremendous pain on the people. “Time to stop this badly conceived, badly executed and totally gone wrong experiment,” he added.
Education In Africa: Girls Gaining Ground On Boys -- In Africa, progress has been made in a lot of areas over the last few decades. This is something Statista's Martin Armstrong has regularly covered in their infographics, and this, using figures from UNESCO as quoted by the BBC, reveals another aspect which has seen positive developments of late. Participation in education is still an issue with room for improvement in sub-Saharan Africa, regardless of gender, but for girls as recently as 2000, the problem was even more acute. At primary level, just 44 percent of girls were completing their education 22 years ago. In 2020, that figure had risen to 66 percent, and had even overtaken the rate for boys (despite healthy gains, too).Girls remain behind boys at lower and upper secondary levels, but the gaps have been reduced in the past two decades - going from 5 percentage points at lower secondary level to just two points, and from 6 points at upper secondary level to 3 in 2020.
‘Deafening media silence’ on global protests - (video) There is a “deafening” media silence on protests around the world protesting against the elites, according to Webster University Assistant Professor Ralph Schoellhammer. “They are significant protests – we’re talking about 30 000 people in The Netherlands,” Prof Schoellhammer said, adding that the media and political campaign across the west against “disinformation” is part of a broader attempt to “undermine” organized protests against the agenda of the elites. “That the best way to prevent the pushback from large numbers of people is if they don’t know that anything is going on.” “Think about the situation of the truckers in Canada when they pulled their bank accounts… so this is undermining the possibility of those people to organize. “It’s what interest groups, what these players do – they see there is something coming that could be a threat to their power so they try to do something to undermine it.”
EU Population Declines For Second Straight Year - The EU’s population has decreased for the second year running, reflecting the devastating impacts of the coronavirus, according to Eurostat.As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, the bloc’s population had been increasing year on year, hitting a pre-pandemic peak of 447,485,231 people on January 1, 2020. Where there were 447,000,548 people registered across the 27-country bloc in 2021, the number dropped to 446,828,803 by the start of this year.While Covid is likely the main contributor to this decline, it’s not the only cause.The EU has an aging population, with one in five people over the age of 65.At the same time, fewer babies are being born, with the rate having fallen from 10.2 live births out of every 1,000 population in 2001 to 9.1 in 2020, according to Eurostat’s Demography of Europe 2022 report.This means the natural change of the EU population is negative. While it’s been that way for about a decade, this decline had been masked by the net positive impact of migration, which was temporarily frozen due to the pandemic’s travel bans.The data comes as the world nears its 8 billion mark. Despite natural declines in Europe and in several other countries, the world is on the whole seeing numbers continue to climb, albeit at the slowest rate of growth since 1950. India is set to become the most highly populated country on the planet as of 2023, overtaking China, according to the UN. An increasing population means there will be a greater demand for food, water and energy, placing more pressure on the world’s resources.
Italy Government On Verge Of Collapse After Coalition Members Abandon Draghi; Euro Tumbles - Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Italy has had 19 governments, lasting on average just over 18 months. As such, Mario Draghi's government - which is about to collapse - is about to make it 20 failed government (but at least Draghi's 17 months lasted right in line with the average).Moments ago, Italy's center-right League headed by Mtteo Salvini party indicated that it will join Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia in skipping a confidence vote over Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government, assuring that Draghi's government will collapse leading to snap elections as soon as the fall.The news follows a speech earlier on Wednesday, in which the former Goldman partner and ECB head indicated he was willing to stay on as prime minister if his coalition partners could guarantee "sincere and concrete support" for him to continue, and sought a vote of confidence.Well, Draghi's partners couldn't reach an agreement, assuring that Draghi's government will fail the coming vote of confidence and ushering in fresh Italian elections, and sparking a fresh leg in the European government crisis, which takes place just one day before the ECB had leaked it could hike as much as 50bps.
Bus drivers face 40+ degrees cabin heat: “We are so undervalued. We’re treated worse than cattle” - Bus drivers have been directed to report for work during Britain’s first ever red warning for extreme heat, despite vehicles being supplied without air-conditioning. By mid-afternoon Monday, temperatures inside drivers’ cabins were hitting 40-plus degrees centigrade (104+ Fahrenheit), with Unite suppressing any collective action to defend drivers’ health and safety. A red warning for extreme heat was issued by the Met Office, Britain’s national meteorological service, late last week. It is the highest-level warning, defined as “dangerous weather” posing a “risk to life”. The Met advised, “You should avoid travelling, where possible, and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities.” But millions of key workers have been forced today into dangerously overheated workplaces, in defiance of all public health warnings. Temperatures in much of England reached 36 degrees by early afternoon. Bus drivers in London shared images of thermometer readings above 40 degrees inside their cabins. “It’s hotter inside than outside” a driver from Brixton in south London said, describing his bus as a “greenhouse on wheels”. Transport for London (TfL) advised the public to “only travel if essential” on Monday and Tuesday. Much of Britain’s infrastructure is unable to withstand extreme heat, with railway tracks buckling, roads melting, and poorly air-conditioned rolling stock, bus vehicles and buildings . Tomorrow will be even hotter, reaching 39 degrees. TfL announced over the weekend that it had a “comprehensive hot weather plan in place” to “keep services running and to keep staff and customer safe”. But London bus drivers have responded angrily, saying TfL has once again prioritised mileage and profits over their own lives and the safety of passengers. Extreme heat carries the risk of heat exhaustion, with symptoms including nausea, heavy sweating and feeling faint. If left untreated, this can develop quickly into heat stroke, a fatal condition where the body is unable to cool itself. Heat stroke can lead to confusion, altered mental state, slurred speech, loss of consciousness and coma. Other risks from heat exposure are rhabdomyolysis which causes muscle death and kidney rupture. Heat syncope can lead to fainting episodes or dizziness due to dehydration. Passengers, pedestrians and other road users are at immediate risk if a driver succumbs to any of these conditions. Despite the serious medical consequences of heat exposure, there is no legal limit on maximum temperatures at work in the UK. It’s illegal to transport cattle above 30C degrees under European Union law, but no such protections exist for workers.
No comments:
Post a Comment