week ending Sep 10

 Fed Chair Powell vows to raise rates to fight inflation 'until the job is done' -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in an appearance Thursday emphasized the importance of getting inflation down now before the public gets too used to higher prices and comes to expect them as the norm.In his latest comments underlining his commitment to the inflation fight, Powell said expectations play an important role and were a critical reason why inflation was so persistent in the 1970s and '80s. "History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy," the central bank leader said in a Q&A presented by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank based in Washington, D.C. "I can assure you that my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and we will keep at it until the job is done."The event was Powell's last scheduled public appearance before the Fed's next meeting on Sept. 20-21.Markets largely took the comments in stride, with major averages little changed in the early going on Wall Street. Treasury yields were mostly higher, with the two-year note, the most sensitive to Fed rate hikes, rising by nearly five basis points to 3.49%. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.The Fed has raised benchmark interest rates four times this year, with the fed funds rate now set in a range between 2.25%-2.50%. Markets widely expect the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to enact a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase this month. In fact, that probability rose to 86% during Powell's remarks, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tracker of fed funds futures bets. Both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America told clients to expect that three-quarter point hike. One reason for acting aggressively is to make sure that inflation running around its highest rate in more than 40 years doesn't become ingrained in the public consciousness, Powell said. "The Fed has the responsibility for price stability, by which we mean 2% inflation over time," he said. "The longer inflation remains well above target, the greater the risk the public does begin to see higher inflation as the norm, and that has the capacity to raise the costs of getting inflation down."There have been some signs lately that at least the monthly path of inflation is abating. In particular, gasoline prices have been falling steadily after briefly rising above $5 a gallon earlier in the summer.The Fed gets its last look at inflation data before the meeting next week, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August consumer price index data. Economists are expecting a 0.2% headline increase in the CPI after it was flat in July, according to FactSet. However, the year-over-yearincrease in July was 8.5%, and many areas outside energy saw sizable increases. Powell said the inflation pressures have come largely from pandemic-specific causes. When inflation first began to rise in the spring of 2021, Powell and his colleagues dismissed it as "transitory" and did not respond with any major policy moves before starting to hike rates in March 2022. However, he said it's incumbent now on the Fed to keep acting until inflation falls and avoid the consequences of the 1970s when a failure to implement an aggressive policy response allowed public expectations for high inflation to fester. "We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly, as we have been, and we need to keep at it until the job is done to avoid that," he said.

Fed will tighten monetary policy 'for as long as it takes' to curb inflation — Brainard -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said the central bank is entirely focused on taming historically high inflation and committed to raising interest rates until price stability has been achieved. "We're in this for as long as it takes to get inflation down," Brainard said in her prepared remarks before a conference sponsored by the Bank Policy Institute and The Clearing House in New York on Wednesday. "While the precise course of action will depend on the evolution of the outlook, I am confident we will achieve a return to 2% inflation. Our resolve is firm, our goals are clear and our tools are up to the task." Brainard noted that the causes of some of the most rapid price increases in decades — including strong consumer spending, high markups and supply chain disruptions — appear to be abating. Consumer demand for interest rate-sensitive products like cars and housing is cooling because of the central bank's rate increases, she said, and there is anecdotal evidence that high consumer inventories could lead to markdowns that will ease inflationary pressure. Increasing wages and persistently low unemployment are leading the Federal Open Market Committee — the rate-setting body within the Fed — to be confident that increasingly tight monetary policy is necessary to further cool demand and bring inflation back into the desired 2% range. While that stance will likely moderate over time, she said, in the near term the central bank believes that a tighter monetary stance is critical to instill in the public an expectation that prices can and will remain stable. "How long it takes to move inflation back down to 2% will depend on a combination of continued easing in supply constraints, slower demand growth, and lower markups, against the backdrop of anchored expectations," Brainard said. "At some point in the tightening cycle, the risks will become more two-sided. The rapidity of the tightening cycle and its global nature, as well as the uncertainty around the pace at which the effects of tighter financial conditions are working their way through aggregate demand, create risks associated with overtightening. And if history is any guide, it is important to avoid the risk of pulling back too soon." Brainard's comments echo those of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who in August said that Americans would likely feel "some pain" during the current tightening cycle, but that such pain was necessary to forestall a prolonged inflationary period like that experienced in the 1970s and 1980s.

Fed's long-sought neutral goal proves elusive and moving target - A shift is underway at the Federal Reserve in how to describe neutral — the interest rate level that neither stimulates nor restrains growth — as it debates how much higher to hike. For an abstract concept — neutral can't be directly measured — the stakes are high: If the assessment is too low, Fed policy could be providing more stimulus to the economy than thought as it fights inflation. If it's too high, policy is more restrictive than planned. Both can result in a damaging policy error. The topic is moving up the policy agenda because in July, the Fed raised the top of its target range for the benchmark federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 2.5%, which Chair Jerome Powell noted met officials' estimate of the long-run neutral rate. That move completed the first stage of the tightening cycle begun in March, when policymakers said they wanted to get to neutral "expeditiously" to cool surging inflation. With officials beginning stage two of the campaign — as Powell laid out Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming —-the discussion has turned to how much higher they now have to go and how long to stay when they get there. That's also elevating the argument that neutral is currently higher than the Fed's long-run median estimate — which in June was 2.5% — indicating rates need to be hiked further than otherwise. Powell has said that another unusually large increase could be on the table when officials next meet Sept. 20-21, depending on the data, and some policymakers want to see rates rise above 4%. But estimates of neutral can vary widely. Just 39% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg in August agreed with the FOMC's view of neutral at 2.5%, with estimates ranging from 2% to 3.75%. And it's a hard thing to talk about. Powell was slammed for announcing after the July 27 rate increase that the move had lifted rates into the range of neutral. Critics argued the comment had fanned a rally in stocks as investors took it as a dovish hint that rates didn't have much higher to go. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a paid Bloomberg TV contributor, said the remark was "indefensible" because 2.5% was not anywhere near neutral given current high inflation. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor to Allianz SE and a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, said "the ZIP code for neutral is above where we are now," and at least 50 basis points higher.

 Goldman Changes Fed Hike View, Now Expects 75bps In Sept After Fed Mouthpiece Report -- One upon a time Goldman Sachs - that consummate incubator of central bankers - did not need to be told by the Fed (or its mouthpieces) what the US central bank will do: instead, the flow of information (and decision-making) ran from Goldman to the Fed. Those days are long gone, however, with Goldman now targeting subprime households for its credit cards trinkets as most of its legendary traders and bankers have "moved on", and yesterday was a glaring example that when it comes to the Fed, Goldman is now just another ordinary bank. To wit, just a few hours after the WSJ's new (poor-man's) Fed whisperer, Nick Timiraos (now that Jon Hilsenrath is locked behind the WSJ Pro paywall) reported that a 75bps is coming, Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius - who until now had adamantly pushed for a 50bps hike in Sept and two 25bps follow ups - changed his mind, and late on Wednesday writes that he is raising his Fed forecast to include a 75bp rate hike in September (vs. 50bp previously) and a 50bp hike in November (vs. 25bp previously), while continuing to expect a 25bp hike in December, which would take the funds rate to 3.75-4% by the end of 2022. Some more details from the note available to pro subs: At the July FOMC meeting, Chair Powell laid out a case for slowing the pace of tightening. Since then, the data have on net come in roughly as expected or even a bit more supportive than expected of the case for slowing down. But Fed officials have sounded hawkish recently and have seemed to imply that progress toward taming inflation has not been as uniform or as rapid as they would like. And today, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FOMC “appears to be on a path to raise interest rates by another 0.75 percentage point this month,” a likely hint from the Fed leadership that a 75bp hike is coming at the September meeting. We therefore now think the FOMC will delay its plan to slow down. The chart below highlights some of the more hawkish remarks in recent Fed commentary, including Vice-Chair Brainard’s speech today, justifying Goldman's overall takeaway "that the FOMC will most likely delay its plan to slow the pace of tightening until after September."

Fed's Beige Book: "Residential real estate conditions weakened noticeably as home sales fell in all twelve Districts" - Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information collected on or before August 29, 2022." Economic activity was unchanged, on balance, since early July, with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening. Most Districts reported steady consumer spending as households continued to trade down and to shift spending away from discretionary goods and toward food and other essential items. Auto sales remained muted across most Districts, reflecting limited inventories and elevated prices. Hospitality and tourism contacts highlighted overall solid leisure travel activity with some reporting an uptick in business and group travel. Manufacturing activity grew in several Districts, although there were some reports of declining output as supply chain disruptions and labor shortages continued to hamper production. Despite some reports of strong leasing activity, residential real estate conditions weakened noticeably as home sales fell in all twelve Districts and residential construction remained constrained by input shortages. Commercial real estate activity softened, particularly demand for office space. Loan demand was mixed; while financial institutions reported generally strong demand for credit cards and commercial and industrial loans, residential loan demand was weak amid elevated mortgage interest rates. Nonfinancial services firms experienced stable to slightly higher demand. Demand for transportation services was mixed and reports on agriculture conditions across reporting Districts varied. While demand for energy products was robust, production remained constrained by supply chain bottlenecks for critical components. The outlook for future economic growth remained generally weak, with contacts noting expectations for further softening of demand over the next six to twelve months.

Business Cycle Indicators as of 9/3: On the Upswing Again (If They Were Ever in a Downswing) - In the wake of the employment situation and monthly GDP (IHS Markit) releases: The conventional picture, with GDP (BEA), normalized to 2021M11: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), and author’s calculations. An alternative picture, using implied benchmarked nonfarm payroll employment, and GDO: Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official Gross Domestic Output (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), and author’s calculations.Since we have additional data regarding Q3, I thought it would be interesting to see what quarterly data imply: Figure 3: GDP (bold black), GDPNow implied level as of 9/1 (chartreuse square), GDO (light blue), and GDP implied by Weekly Economic Index (WEI) applied to year-ago GDP (red). Q3 for implied GDP uses WEI through 8/27. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA (2nd release), NY Fed via FRED (as of 9/3), Atlanta Fed (as of 9/1), NBER, and author’s calculations. Notice that the implied level of GDP from the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index applied to actual GDP a year ago is pretty close to GDO for this and last quarter.

Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 4th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 3.4% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - had been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019. Travel has picked up recently, compared to 2019, perhaps due to the timing of Labor Day. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Movie ticket sales were at $78 million last week, down about 53% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through August 27th. The occupancy rate was down 2.5% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).- This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of August 26th, gasoline supplied was down 13.2% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.

Senate's top priority: a spending bill to keep the government running - — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will gavel in the Senate Tuesdayas it reconvenes after the August recess with its top goal in mind: Passing a temporary spending bill to keep the federal government open. Funding for government operations runs out at the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, giving Congress just a few weeks to hammer out a deal on short-term continuation of government funding in the Senate and the House, which returns to work in a week. “Everything after Labor Day is about reelection, and anything that Congress is working on is in an attempt to increase the votes for their side,” said Mark Harkins, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University in Washington. “Most of what you're going to see is rhetorical. There's almost nothing other than trying to keep the government open that's going to be done that's substantive,” Harkins, a former House aide, told Newsday. Schumer, a Democrat and New York's senior senator, said in a statement to Newsday, “In addition to continuing to educate people on how the Inflation Reduction Act, along with the executive action on student loan relief will reduce their costs, the Senate will continue its priority to restore our courts with exceptional legal talent, experience and diversity." Legislative work in the Senate will continue, with votes on reauthorizing Federal Drug Administration fees, a $35 cap on insulin shots and confirming judicial nominees, according to Schumer’s office. In the House, the Jan. 6 Committee will hold two public hearings on its investigation into former President Donald Trump and the attack on the U.S. Capitol that disrupted Electoral College certification, according to Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), a committee member. But over the next few weeks, legislators will focus on reaching an agreement on a short-term spending bill, called a continuing resolution, or CR. In the Senate, Republicans can filibuster any spending measure, so Schumer must cut a deal with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The Big Four — Schumer, McConnell, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — likely will negotiate the terms of the continuing resolution, experts said. Republicans are expected to push the end of the continuing resolution funding into next year to give them greater control over the final spending measure for the new fiscal year if they win a majority in the House or the Senate or both. Congress often relies on short-term funding measures to keep the government running at the end of the fiscal year, instead of passing the formally negotiated 12 spending bills by appropriations committees in the House and Senate. Since 1977, the first year the fiscal year began on Oct. 1, Congress has enacted a continuing resolution to fund the government in all but three of those fiscal years, according to a 2019 Congressional Research report.

Stopgap funding bill set to dominate September agenda - Lawmakers return to Washington this month to wrestle with a White House request for $47.1 billion in emergency supplemental funds and the need to pass a stopgap spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown starting Oct. 1. On top of that, Democrats have to see if they can get enough support from their own side to attach energy permitting legislation sought by Sen. Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va., to the continuing resolution, known as a CR. Manchin said Democratic leaders promised to move the permitting measure before Sept. 30 as one of the conditions that led him to vote for the climate, health care and tax reconciliation bill that President Joe Biden signed into law last month. But no decision has been made to attach it to the funding bill. The CR under discussion in the House would extend spending at roughly fiscal 2022 levels to Dec. 16, two and half months into the new fiscal year, with exceptions for a number of "anomalies" enabling higher funding rates for various programs as is typical. The expiration date hasn't been finalized and could still change. The current plan is for the House to consider the stopgap bill next week, leaving plenty of time, in theory, to get it through the Senate and to Biden's desk. Both parties say they want to avoid a shutdown. But getting the stopgap across the finish line may be more complicated now after the White House supplemental request. Most Democrats will likely support the White House proposal. But according to sources familiar with GOP thinking, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and GOP lawmakers are digging in for a “clean” stopgap. That particularly applies to pandemic funding. The White House asked for $22.4 billion in emergency funds for COVID-19. Republicans have rejected additional pandemic-related funding since last year, arguing the administration should repurpose the hundreds of billions of dollars in appropriated aid that has not been spent or obligated. Based on the latest compilation by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, about $670 billion in pandemic aid passed by Congress remains unspent or uncommitted. Sources familiar with GOP thinking say there is little reason to believe the Republican view on this has changed.Biden requested $22.5 billion in emergency funds in March. When Congress did not give that to him, the administration diverted $10 billion from other accounts to purchase vaccines and therapeutics because stocks were running low. Senate Appropriations Chairman Patrick J. Leahy, D-Vt., included $21 billion in emergency pandemic funding in the fiscal 2023 appropriations bills he released in July. He is still working to pass additional funding for COVID-19 and monkeypox, a spokesman said. One of the few initiatives that might get on the stopgap without much opposition is more funding for Ukraine in its war to defend itself against a Russian invasion. If the aid is targeted, Republicans might go along with it, people familiar with GOP thinking say.

Senate leans toward Dec. 16 stopgap funding bill - Senate leaders appear to be on board with an interim spending measure that will keep the government operating until Dec. 16, which is also the preferred expiration date for House Democrats as they prep a continuing resolution for a vote as soon as next week. Senate Appropriations Chairman Patrick J. Leahy, D-Vt., said Wednesday that Democrats would like the CR through Dec. 16; Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., said it would run through mid-December. Top Republicans including Senate Appropriations ranking member Richard C. Shelby of Alabama and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky deferred to Democrats on the timing but didn’t express any objections to the mid-December date. But navigating the evenly divided Senate to get the 60 votes needed to advance the as-yet-unwritten stopgap funding bill will likely require tough negotiations regarding pandemic-related funding, among other issues. President Joe Biden requested $47.1 billion in emergency funds as part of his administration’s CR proposal, parts of which may face opposition from Republicans who want a mostly “clean” stopgap without additional spending. Biden’s supplemental request includes $22.4 billion for COVID-19, $4.5 billion for monkeypox, $13.7 billion for Ukraine-related aid and $6.5 billion for natural disaster aid. While military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine has seen widespread support in Congress, Republicans have rejected additional requests for pandemic-related spending since last year. ‘As clean as possible’ McConnell said Wednesday that a CR should be “as clean as possible” to keep the government fully operational without controversy. McConnell and other Republicans were open to including more Ukraine spending. But the level they’d agree to is unclear after lawmakers approved $54 billion in emergency aid in two batches earlier this year. “Ukraine is obviously a priority for most of us on both sides of the aisle,” McConnell said. “We’ll have to see what they’re requesting and how much of it is actually designed to help Ukraine wage the war.” The administration's proposal features $7.2 billion in military aid and $4.5 billion in direct budget support for the Ukrainian government.

China Warns Of 'Counter-Measures' After Biden Approves $1.1bn Arms Sales To Taiwan - China is "firmly opposed" to the Biden administration's approval of more than $1.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, and says to expect "counter-measures" in response.Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said on Saturday that the sales "severely jeopardize China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," and has called on Washington to "immediately revoke" them.Full statement (via Twitter):#Taiwan is an inalienable part of the #Chinese territory. The United States interferes in #China's internal affairs and undermines China's sovereignty and security interests by selling arms to the Taiwan region. It runs counter to international law and basic principles in international relations, and violates the one-China principle and provisions of the three China-US joint communiques, especially the August 17 Communique. It sends wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, and severely jeopardizes China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. China is firmly opposed to this.China urges the US side to honor its commitment, earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiques,stop arms sales to and military interactions with Taiwan, and immediately revoke relevant arms sales to Taiwan, lest it should cause more damages to China-US relations and peace and stability across the #TaiwanStrait.China will resolutely take legitimate and necessary counter-measures in light of the development of the situation.

Pentagon Halts F-35 Stealth Jet Deliveries Over Use Of Chinese Alloy - The Pentagon suspended the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II deliveries over Chinese rare-earth metals used in magnets for pumps on the stealth fighter jet. Defense Department spokesman Russell Goemaere told Bloomberg in an email that the F-35 program office "temporarily paused the acceptance of new F-35 aircraft to ensure the F-35 program's compliance" with DoD rules sourcing "specialty metals." Goemaere said the Chinese alloy won't disrupt operations with F-35s in deployment with US military and global partners because "the magnet does not transmit information or harm the integrity of the aircraft and there are no performance, quality, safety or security risks associated with this issue." The defense official said the F-35 program office "found an alternative source for the alloy that will be used in future turbomachines." "We are working with our partners and DoD to ensure contractual compliance within the supply chain ... and are working with the DoD to resolve the issue as quickly as possible to resume deliveries," Lockheed told Bloomberg. Chinese alloy found in F-35s is no surprise, considering the country controls the global rare-earth metals market. A Congressional Research Service report found that F-35s use about 920 pounds of rare earths per plane, mainly for electronic warfare sensors, electrical power systems, and magnets. The US relies heavily on Asian countries for 80% of its rare-earths needs. There have been moves by the Biden administration to increase domestic supply chains as a priority to mitigate if China were to impose an export ban on US defense companies. Rare earths are also central in manufacturing night vision goggles, precision-guided missiles, and drones. On the civilian side, metals are critical for electric vehicles and smartphones.

‘Fat Leonard’ escapes weeks before sentencing in Navy bribery scandal - The Malaysian defense contractor who pleaded guilty to bribing Navy officials with sex parties, fancy dinners and alcohol in a massive corruption scandal has escaped just weeks before his sentencing date. Leonard Glenn Francis, also known as “Fat Leonard” for his overshadowing frame, fled Sunday while under house arrest in San Diego, where he was awaiting a Sept. 22 hearing. A multiagency search by the San Diego Regional Fugitive Task Force and Naval Criminal Investigative Service is underway, officials said. “He cut off his GPS monitoring bracelet on Sunday morning,” the U.S. Marshals Service announced late Monday. “Task Force Officers went to his residence and upon arrival noticed the house was now vacant.” The Navy is working with the U.S. Marshals Service and other federal agencies “to locate and apprehend Mr. Francis,” a service spokesperson said in a statement Tuesday. “Out of respect for the investigative process, we cannot comment further at this time,” the spokesperson added. Days before he vanished, neighbors recalled seeing moving trucks at Francis’s home, Supervisory Deputy Omar Castillo with the U.S. Marshals’ district in Southern California told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “He was planning this out, that’s for sure,” Castillo told the newspaper, which was the first to report Francis’s escape. Castillo did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday night.

The US Army Special Operations Command Weaponizes Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Telegram - The US Army’s Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has been firing several hundred million dollars’ worth of cyber warheads at Russian targets from its headquarters at MacDill Airforce Base in Florida. They have all been duds. The weapons, the source, and their failure to strike effectively have been exposed in a new report, published on August 24, by the Cyber Policy Center of the Stanford Internet Observatory. The title of the 54-page study is “Unheard Voice: Evaluating Five Years of Pro-Western Covert Influence Operations”.“We believe”, the report concludes, “this activity represents the most extensive case of covert pro-Western IO [influence operations] on social media to be reviewed and analyzed by open-source researchers to date… the data also shows the limitations of using inauthentic tactics to generate engagement and build influence online. The vast majority of posts and tweets we reviewed received no more than a handful of likes or retweets, and only 19% of the covert assets we identified had more than 1,000 followers. The average tweet received 0.49 likes and 0.02 retweets.”“Tellingly,” according to the Stanford report, “the two most followed assets in the data provided by Twitter were overt accounts that publicly declared a connection to the U.S. military.”The report comes from a branch of Stanford University, and is funded by the Stanford Law School and the Spogli Institute for Institutional Studies, headed by Michael McFaul (lead image). McFaul, once a US ambassador to Moscow, has been a career advocate of war against Russia. The new report exposes many of McFaul’s allegations to be crude fabrications and propaganda which the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has been paying contractors to fire at Russia for a decade.Strangely, there is no mention in the report of the US Army, Pentagon, the Special Operations Command, or its principal cyberwar contractor, the Rendon Group.It is unclear who paid for the new investigation which was co-authored by Graphika. This is a New York consultancy without an office address, staffed by US, French and British intelligence analysts, and financed in part by the US Senate Intelligence Committee and the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Graphika advertises its Russia war-making credentials in the mainstream and IT media, as well as on its Twitter account. Notwithstanding, the new report explicitly targets news faking and other information warfare tactics by the US Army forces aimed primarily at audiences in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Afghanistan.

 China Blames US For Its University Server Attack – SCMP - China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Centre slammed the United States on Monday for allegedly hacking a state-funded university in Xian that has aeronautics and space research programs, claiming the perpetrator was an espionage unit of the US National Security Agency and that the US had launched“tens of thousands” of cyberattacks on China and pilfered troves of sensitive data, a report by the South China Morning Post said.In a statement released following its investigation, it urged the US to “stop stealing [from] and attacking other countries”, the report said, claiming that nearly 140 gigabytes of valuable data had been “stolen” from Chinese universities by US hackers with assistance from groups in Europe and South Asia.The claim comes two months after the heads of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and Britain’s M15 warned that China was engaged in a “breathtaking” covert program to steal technological secrets from businesses all over the world. Read the full report: South China Morning Post.

 Chips Banned by US in Big Demand from Chinese Researchers - High-profile universities and state-run research institutes in China have been spending large sums on advanced US computer chips to power their artificial intelligence (AI) technology. But a big cloud now hangs over that trade – and the future of such research projects, after Washington imposed an export ban on chips designed by Nvidia Corp and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), both of which are based in California. Nvidia revealed last week that US government officials ordered it to stop exporting its A100 and H100 chips to China. Local peer AMD also said new licence requirements now prevent export to China of its advanced AI chip MI250. The development signalled a major escalation of a US campaign to stymie China’s technological capability as tension bubbles over the fate of Taiwan, where chips for Nvidia and almost every other major chip firm are manufactured. China views Taiwan as a rogue province and has not ruled out force to bring the democratically governed island under its control. Responding to the restrictions, China branded them a futile attempt to impose a technology blockade on a rival. A review of more than a dozen publicly available government tenders over the past two years indicated that among some of China’s most strategically important research institutes, there is high demand – and need – for Nvidia’s signature A100 chips. Tsinghua University, China’s highest-ranked higher education institution globally, spent over $400,000 last October on two Nvidia AI supercomputers, each powered by four A100 chips, one of the tenders showed. In the same month, the Institute of Computing Technology, part of top research group, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), spent around $250,000 on A100 chips. The school of artificial intelligence at a CAS university in July this year also spent about $200,000 on high-tech equipment including a server partly powered by A100 chips. In November, the cybersecurity college of Guangdong-based Jinan University spent over $93,000 on an Nvidia AI supercomputer, while its school of intelligent systems science and engineering spent almost $100,000 on eight A100 chips just last month. Less well-known institutes and universities supported by municipal and provincial governments, such as in Shandong, Henan and Chongqing, also bought A100 chips, the tenders showed. None of the research departments responded to requests for comment on the effect on their projects of the A100 export curb. Nvidia did not respond to a request for comment. Last Wednesday, it said it had booked $400 million in Chinese sales of the affected chips this quarter which could be lost if its customers decide not to buy alternative Nvidia products. It also said it planned to apply for exemptions to the new rules. The lack of chips from the likes of Nvidia and AMD is likely to hamper efforts at Chinese organisations to cost-effectively carry out the kind of advanced computing used for tasks such as image and speech recognition.

John Podesta to Oversee $370 Billion in U.S. Climate Spending - — President Biden on Friday appointed John Podesta, a veteran Washington insider who spearheaded the Obama administration’s climate strategy, to oversee the federal investment of $370 billion in clean energy under a landmark new climate law. As a senior adviser to Mr. Biden on clean energy innovation, Mr. Podesta will shape how the government disburses billions of dollars in tax credits and incentives to industries that are developing wind and solar energy, as well as to consumers who want to install solar panels, heat and cool their homes with electric heat pumps or buy electric vehicles. In addition to his time in the Obama administration, Mr. Podesta, 73, served as chief of staff to President Bill Clinton and was chairman of Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful campaign for president in 2016. He founded the Center for American Progress, a left leaning think tank, and is now chairman of its board. From that perch, Mr. Podesta has informally been advising the Biden administration, pushing the White House to act more aggressively on climate change. In bringing on Mr. Podesta, Mr. Biden continues to surround himself with veterans of past Democratic administrations, old hands who can step into challenging positions without on-the-job training. “His deep roots in climate and clean energy policy and his experience at senior levels of government mean we can truly hit the ground running,” Mr. Biden said of Mr. Podesta in a statement. Mr. Podesta will begin work at the White House on Tuesday as Gina McCarthy, the president’s national climate adviser, gets ready to depart on Sept. 16, administration officials said. Ms. McCarthy, 68, who played a central role in integrating climate policy across federal agencies and increasing government support for wind and solar development, had been widely expected to step down for months. Ms. McCarthy has told associates that the travel associated with her current job was tiring and that she never intended to stay for the president’s full four-year term.

Did the IRA kill the carbon tax? - At a press conference during the Paris climate summit in 2015, when leaders from 196 countries had gathered to reach an agreement on how to slow climate change, President Barack Obama proposed a solution for their planetary problems: charge polluters for their greenhouse gas emissions. “I have long believed that the most elegant way to drive innovation and to reduce carbon emissions is to put a price on it,” he said, Obama’s pitch was based on a cornerstone of American climate policy, the carbon tax. Championed by the likes of Bill Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, and some old-guard Republicans, and heralded by thousands of economists as essential in the fight against climate change, it would have imposed a fee on every ton of carbon released into the atmosphere, a cost that could spell the end of high-emitting industries like coal. Although many environmentalists in Washington have spent the better part of two decades trying to pass a carbon tax in Congress, it was absent from the historic climate package signed by President Joe Biden last month. Instead of taxing polluters on their emissions, the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, aims to fight climate change with green tax credits for clean electricity and manufacturing, as well as for alternative-fuel and electric vehicles. These tax incentives are a major boon for developers of solar panels, wind farms, and other renewable energy technologies, companies expected to receive a combined $60 billion in tax benefits over the next decade. The law also incentivizes Americans to purchase more electric vehicles byoffering a $7,500 tax credit to buyers of new EVs and $4,000 to buyers of used ones. So how did the conversation shift so dramatically, from one focused on taxing polluters to one based on using the tax system to reward developers and buyers of renewable technologies? Is the dream of a nationwide carbon tax dead? “It looks good as a model,” said David Hart, a senior fellow at the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation in Washington, D.C. “If you didn’t have politics, and you didn’t have emotions, and you didn’t have cultural biases in the activities impacted by these taxes, then it looks good on paper.”The idea of putting a tax on carbon emerged at a time when scientists were beginning to reach consensus that the unabated burning of fossil fuels was changing the world’s climate. At an economics conference in 1981, Yale economist William Nordhaus presented a landmark paper that asked how economic policy could slow the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. He considered a range of available solutions, from energy conservation to investments in green technologies, but concluded that a tax on carbon was the most powerful mechanism for stopping climate change. The reason, Nordhaus argued, had to do with the basic economic principle of supply and demand: If you want someone to do less of something, charge them for it. And because the dirtiest polluters would pay the most in taxes, they would likely be the first to shut down, decarbonizing the economy at the fastest rate. Critics have pointed out that such a tax could be regressive, meaning that it would hit low-income families the hardest. Numerous studies have shown that recycling the tax revenue through the economy and giving it back as checks to low-income households balances out the burden, but the mechanics of this money-maneuvering are difficult to articulate, and the solution has not garnered much public support.

 How Biden could use executive authority to help U.S. reach climate goals - While the Inflation Reduction Act will help make a significant cut in U.S. emissions, estimates suggest it won’t be enough to help the country reach its climate targets. President Biden’s use of executive action, experts say, will be a key element in driving further change. “We absolutely are going to need all hands on deck — states, the federal government, everyone that can do something,” said Maya Golden-Krasner, deputy director of the Climate Law Institute at the Center for Biological Diversity. “There are some really big, bold actions, though, that Biden can take and can get us pretty far.” The Biden administration has already undertaken dozens of executive actions on climate, but a new report out Monday details what could lie ahead. Activists are pushing White House officials, who are eager to mobilize the party’s base in the November election and are less worried about alienating centrist lawmakers over energy policy, to do more.The 99-page report, published by the Revolving Door Project, an initiative of the liberal think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research, lays out potential executive branch policies available under current law even without the declaration of a climate emergency, which could open up some additional powers.“We’re trying to advocate for this administration to take seriously a whole-of-government approach to a crisis of apocalyptic proportions,” said Toni Aguilar Rosenthal, a researcher with the Revolving Door Project and one of the report’s authors. “There exists massive, but wildly underutilized, authorities that could do real good for real people today. We’re asking the administration to do that, to take those steps right now and to service that crisis, to meet it where it is.”For its part, the Biden administration made it clear it’s ready to shift some of its focus away from working with Congress. The White House on Friday announced major changes to its top climate team, a move toward using executive authority to reach the president’s climate targets. At least one independent analysis from the research firm Rhodium Group suggests that with executive action, it may be possible to reach Biden’s goal of cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions at least in half by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. According to Rhodium, a “joint-action scenario” that includes state-level measures, congressional passage of certain legislation, and regulations and other executive branch actions would reduce emissions by 45 to 51 percent below 2005 levels. That analysis assessed the potential impact of the Build Back Better Act, which had more sweeping climate policies than the legislation Biden signed last month, but John Larsen, a partner with Rhodium, said the emissions estimates should mostly hold true.Republicans and conservative groups are likely to challenge many new federal climate policies in court, and they have scored some key victorieson that front.And Larsen and other experts emphasized that there are limits to what executive action can achieve alone.“Executive action and very creatively using executive authority as forcefully as possible is not sufficient in itself to solve the climate crisis, to bring the United States in line with its climate goals,” said Max Moran, a research director at the Revolving Door Project. But, he noted, “it is an absolutely necessary part of the puzzle.”

 What to expect on permitting reform as Congress returns - Progressives and their activist allies have been grumbling for weeks over a deal struck between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to pass legislation that would streamline environmental reviews of energy infrastructure projects.That deal was crucial to winning Manchin’s vote for the Inflation Reduction Act, which infused $369 billion in climate spending. And despite its apparent appeal to Republicans, party leaders have assailed the effort as part of a “political payback scheme.”Senate Democratic leaders said last month they intend to attach the yet-to-be-released legislative language to an upcoming stopgap government funding bill. That bill needs to pass before the new fiscal year begins on Oct 1.Senate leaders, including Schumer and Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.), said they intend to follow through with the agreement, even as progressives and their green group allies are aligning against the deal.“The agreement on energy project permitting reform was an essential part of getting the Inflation Reduction Act, and its historic climate and environmental justice provisions, enacted into law,” Carper said in an emailed statement. “My staff and I have been involved in discussions regarding this language to ensure that it aids our ability to meet our nation’s climate and energy goals and I intend to respect this agreement,” he added. A memo circulated by Manchin’s office last month outlined the broad framework of the deal. Changes would include setting a two-year deadline for environmental reviews, limits to judicial challenges and tweaks to Clear Water Act state authorities.Manchin has specifically heralded the agreement as also containing approval for the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline — a project that is almost 95 percent complete and would move West Virginia natural gas to markets (Greenwire, July 28).Previously, some Democrats had said they would not rule the permitting idea out, noting a reform package could also help advance clean energy technologies and transmission deployment (E&E Daily, July 29).Manchin has insisted that the provision pass or else Democrats may suffer his wrath in a 50-50 Senate that requires unanimous Democratic support to advance contentious nominations and judicial picks.“It either keeps the country open, or we shut down the government. That’ll happen Sept. 30, so let’s see how that politics plays out,” Manchin told West Virginia Metro News last month when discussing the permitting deal and the government funding measure.

 Manchin Plan to Fast-Track Energy Projects Heads for Showdown - Congress is headed for a showdown this month over Democratic Senator Joe Manchin’s plan to fast-track federal approvals of energy projects ranging from natural gas pipelines to wind farms. Manchin secured a pledge from congressional leaders to advance the legislation, but the proposal is already drawing fierce opposition from environmental activists and progressive Democrats, and the outcome is far from certain. The deal, which was blessed by the White House, could deliver speedier approval for Equitrans Midstream Corp.’s stalled $6.6 billion Mountain Valley gas pipeline crossing Manchin’s home state of West Virginia. It also may expedite approvals for new clean energy projects spurred by the climate law enacted last month. It could also make changes to bedrock environmental laws, by putting two-year time limits on project reviews and limiting the power of states in Clean Water Act approvals. If the legislation is passed, it would mark a big win for the oil and gas industry, which has long sought to accelerate federal permitting and scale back environmental reviews that can lead to years of delay and hundreds of millions of dollars in extra costs. But even some of the measure’s champions doubt it would achieve the sweeping permitting reform that’s been promised. And it’s not clear that the legislation, which could be unveiled as soon as this week, will make it through Congress. Despite Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s promise to attach the measure to government-funding legislation or some other must-pass bill, some Democrats are deeply opposed. “It’s basically an industry wish list that’s been around forever,” Representative Raul M. Grijalva, an Arizona Democrat who chairs the Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview. “I don’t feel compelled to back this up simply because it was a deal that was made in the Senate.” Other Democrats insist they aren’t bound by the Schumer-Manchin agreement. “To pretend that all of our hands are tied because Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin cut a deal?” said Representative Jared Huffman, a Democrat from California. “Sorry, I don’t think it works that way.” Some Republicans, angry that Democrats jammed Manchin’s climate bill through the Senate on party lines, are also vowing to oppose the legislation even though it aligns with long-held energy industry priorities. Others say the legislation won’t achieve the permitting overhaul that’s needed. Early drafts of the legislation sought to impose limits on government reviews, shorten the amount of time the public can comment on some project analysis and require the president to give priority status to a list of at least 25 fossil fuel and mining projects. The 303-mile (488-kilometer) Mountain Valley Pipeline is seen as a prime beneficiary. Although developers say the pipeline that crosses into Virginia is more than 90% complete, construction work stalled after a federal court rejected a necessary permit for a national forest crossing. Manchin has complained about the slowdown and advanced proposals to finish the project, including by possibly moving litigation over the pipeline to a Washington, D.C.-based federal court. A summary circulated in recent days among Senate Democrats seen by Bloomberg emphasized the package wouldn’t weaken existing environmental statues. Instead, it cast the changes as critical to helping Biden achieve his climate and clean energy goals. For instance, the summary highlights how the measure would give federal regulators new authority to issue construction permits for power lines and transmission projects deemed in the national interest.

'We will get it done': Senate Dems vow permitting success - Senate Democrats are on a collision course with their House counterparts over permitting reform, as Senate leaders said Wednesday they still plan to advance the permitting bill by attaching it to a stopgap government funding measure. That announcement sets up a political fight with House progressives and Republicans wary of giving Democrats another legislative win — though Senate Republicans seem to be softening their stance. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) both reiterated Wednesday that they intend for the permitting measure, which would speed environmental reviews on energy projects, to hitch a ride on the funding measure, known as a continuing resolution (CR). The CR is a must-pass bill to keep the government open when the fiscal year ends Sept. 30. That makes it an appealing vehicle for the permitting reform legislation Schumer agreed to as a condition of Manchin’s support for the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ massive new climate, health care and tax law. “Permitting reform is part of the IRA, and we will get it done,” Schumer told reporters Wednesday. House progressives, however, say they don’t owe Manchin anything on the permitting measure, setting up a showdown at the end of the month. Even if leadership can secure 60 votes in the Senate, dozens of House Democrats have already come out against it, potentially derailing the combined permitting-stopgap spending bill in the lower chamber (E&E Daily, Sept. 6). Progressive groups are planning to protest the permitting effort outside the Capitol on Thursday afternoon. Legislative text of the overhaul is expected in the coming days. “I think people need to see what’s inside and what it does, how much good it does for our country,” Manchin told reporters Wednesday when asked about progressive opposition. Still, in the Senate, it appears many of Manchin’s Democratic colleagues are lining up behind the permitting proposal. Among other things, it’s expected to propose a two-year timeline for environmental reviews for energy and infrastructure projects, set a statute of limitations for judicial challenges and clear the way for the Mountain Valley pipeline, a natural gas project and a longtime Manchin priority.

10 New York Representatives Oppose Schumer’s Dirty Pipeline Deal - In a letter delivered to Speaker Nancy Pelosi today, more than 70 U.S. House members affirmed their opposition to a legislative deal crafted by Senators Schumer and Manchin that would fast-track fossil fuel infrastructure development. 10 New York Representatives were among the signatories: Bowman, Clarke, Espaillat, Jones, C. Maloney, Meng, Nadler, Ocasio-Cortez, Torres, and Velazquez. Representative Jeffries has been notably silent on this issue, as activists ramp up the pressure, protesting outside his Brooklyn office last week.The deal, which Schumer apparently intends to attach to an upcoming budget continuing resolution, would fast-track fossil fuel projects, including the highly controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline. Yesterday, activists in New York traveled to Washington, D.C. to protest the deal alongside hundreds of activists from across the country. In response, Food & Water Watch Northeast Region Director Alex Beauchamp issued the following statement:“Today, the New York House delegation issued a strong rebuke of Senator Schumer and his spineless dirty pipeline deal. Backroom deals that sell out frontline communities, sidestep state permitting authority and double down on climate-killing fossil fuels are no way to lead.“Schumer’s dirty pipeline deal is an affront to his own constituents’ fight for a livable future. For those that represent us, this is the time to choose — people or fossil fuels. Senator Schumer, stop the dirty deal.”

Sanders blasts permitting reform as Democrats' divide grows - Sen. Bernie Sanders said Thursday he would oppose a stopgap government spending measure that includes forthcoming permitting legislation, underscoring progressive resistance to the bill amid protests by environmental groups.Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats, called the permitting proposal a “disastrous side deal” that would make it easier for fossil fuel companies to “pollute the environment and destroy our planet.”“At a time when climate change is threatening the very existence of our planet, why would anybody be talking about substantially increasing carbon emissions and expanding fossil fuel production in the United States?” Sanders asked on the Senate floor.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) struck a deal with Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in July to pass the permitting overhaul in exchange for Manchin’s vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ sprawling climate, health care and tax law. Their plan is to attach it to the continuing resolution, the must-pass stopgap spending measure to keep the government open when the fiscal year ends Sept. 30.It will need 60 votes to pass the Senate, but most Democrats are rallying to support Manchin’s deal, and Republicans are beginning to soften their tone. Sanders’ opposition may not directly impact the bill’s fate in the upper chamber, but it’s part of a larger intraparty battle that could derail it.Manchin said Thursday he had been expecting Sanders to oppose it and reiterated that he expects permitting reform to ride on the CR.“We’re talking about small nuclear reactors, we’re talking about solar farms and wind farms, but we have to have the fossil horsepower that we need right now to run the country,” Manchin said.Other Senate climate hawks see potential benefits for clean energy projects they’re hoping to get off the ground with billions of dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act and a path to clearing backlogs for the transmission projects needed to escort renewable power around the country (E&E Daily, Sept. 8).Despite Sanders’ vocal opposition, fellow progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) was noncommittal on the bill Thursday.“There’s no language out there right now,” Warren said. “I need to see what has been agreed to.”There’s a brewing battle, however, in the House, where progressives are publicly pressuring leadership to drop permitting from the CR or any other must-pass bill.House Natural Resources Chair Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) is circulating a letter making that demand, and it now has signatures from more than 50 House Democrats, enough to derail the bill if Republicans do not end up supporting permitting reform (E&E Daily, Sept. 6). Sanders entered the letter into the congressional record during his floor speech.

Pipeline fight heads to Washington- Congress is about to hear from hundreds of angry anti-pipeline activists. They are en route from across the country, with some coming from as far away as Alaska, to urge lawmakers on Thursday to nix the controversial Mountain Valley pipeline — and scrub it from a side deal Democratic lawmakers made to advance President Joe Biden's climate law. After holding out for months, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia finally agreed to support the climate measure on the condition that Senate Democrats ease permitting requirements. The deal would help expedite energy infrastructure projects, including the construction of the Mountain Valley pipeline, which is slated to transport natural gas from West Virginia shale reserves to energy markets in mid-Atlantic states. The story of the Appalachian pipeline, which federal regulators first approved in 2017, epitomizes the upcoming congressional battle over Manchin's deal. For Manchin, the 304-mile project is a perfect example of an inefficient and burdensome process to build critical energy infrastructure. Mountain Valley has been mired in legal battles and permitting delays for years. But others maintain that the embattled pipeline highlights the need for more robust environmental reviews and tighter checks on government agencies. While federal and state entities have continued to greenlight the project, courts have determined that the development plan for the pipeline does not comply with current environmental law. Its construction, the courts determined, could harm hundreds of waterways, wetlands and endangered fish in Appalachia. Senate Democratic leaders said last month they intend to attach a permitting proposal to the spending bill that needs to pass before October to avert a government shutdown. While the details of the proposal have yet to be released, opponents of the Mountain Valley pipeline are livid. More than 80 groups sent a letter Wednesday to congressional leadership, urging them to jettison the plan to fast-track the pipeline from the overall permitting proposal. Over 1,000 people plan to attend a rally Thursday evening at the Capitol, and hundreds more are slated to take part in lobbying meetings on the Hill. While progressive Democratic members have vehemently opposed the permitting proposal, party leadership have said they intend to honor the deal.

Appalachian, Indigenous pipeline foes protest climate deal - Roishetta Ozane and her six children squeezed into a three-bedroom trailer, paid for by FEMA, after their Southwest Louisiana home was destroyed by two hurricanes, only six weeks apart. The single mother and her children lived in this cramped space for nearly two years before Ozane, after working three jobs, could afford to buy a new home this past June. Ozane, 37, traveled this week from her home in Sulphur, La., to the nation’s capital to rally on Thursday with others who have beendisplaced by climate catastrophes and those who are advocating against pipelines in their communities. She said she is sharing her story in meetings on Capitol Hill in the offices of her local representatives in hopes that those in power listen to her concerns and reject any bills that further invest in polluting infrastructure.“For so long … these industries have been placed in BIPOC communities that are too often targeted by these projects. It’s time for them to stop. We can no longer be made sacrifices for oil and gas,” Ozane said, referring to Black and Indigenous people and other people of color. Emphasizing that her home near Lake Charles, La., is surrounded by oil and gas refineries, chemical manufacturers and other industries, she had this message for lawmakers: “Breathe the air we breathe. Drink the water we drink. And feel everything we feel in a community where everywhere we look we see industry.”Though last month’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act — a climate, energy and health-care package — was the climate movement’s biggest legislative success, Ozane and others say their communities weresacrificed as a bargaining chip. To secure the support of Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), Democratic leadership reached a side deal with Manchin that would overhaul the process for approving new energy initiatives and expedite the 300-mile-long Mountain Valley Pipeline project — a natural gas pipeline across West Virginia and Virginia that those rallying in D.C. on Thursday have opposed for years. Ozane, an organizer for Healthy Gulf, an environmental justice organization, was one of the hundreds protesting Thursday at the Robert A. Taft Memorial Carillon, joining people from Appalachia and as far away as Alaska to demand that lawmakers reject this side deal, said Grace Tuttle, a lead organizer of the rally who has been advocating against the Mountain Valley Pipeline for three years. Tuttle said the demonstration will be a show of solidarity among communities affected “first and worst” by fossil fuel developments.The landmark Inflation Reduction Act will significantly advance the fight against climate change, spending about $370 billion to bring the country closer to achieving the emissions cuts scientists say are required to avoid the devastating consequences of the Earth’s warming. Rally organizers argue that the side deal, if passed, would “gut bedrock environmental protections, threaten tribal authority, endanger public health, fast-track fossil fuel projects, cut public input and push approval for Manchin’s pet project, the Mountain Valley Pipeline.”

  Jackson's water emergency exposes a dilemma for Biden -The drinking water disaster in Jackson, Miss., injects new urgency into a looming challenge for President Joe Biden: delivering federal money to communities that need it most. The problem is most acute for impoverished communities with large minority populations — those that Biden’s administration hopes to help with promises to steer money to places reeling from decades of pollution and inequity. Torrential downpours shuttered Jackson’s long-ailing wastewater treatment plant last week, sparking a crisis that left more than 150,000 of the city’s 160,000 residents without drinking water. Mississippians and advocates in communities facing disproportionate pollution burdens said Democratic-controlled Jackson is merely the latest majority-Black city struggling to secure its fair share of spending in states that are dominated by Republicans. The O.B. Curtis Water Treatment Plant has been at the center of a decades-long debate over which entity has responsibility for financing long-needed repairs. Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba said fixing the city’s water system could cost more than $1 billion.The state’s Republican leaders have accused the city of mismanaging the facility, while Jackson officials have said few cities could afford the kinds of costly upgrades it requires using utility revenue and municipal funds alone. Still, some elected Democratic officials, such as Rep. Bennie Thompson, have also expressed some frustration with the city.For Biden, who has made helping those types of disadvantaged communities a priority, steering money through state governments reluctant to cede control to the federal government presents a major hurdle, according to advocates and Mississippi officials. Jackson officials have complained that the state legislature was too slow in distributing federal money from pandemic stimulus to the cities that needed it, taking until this April to pass spending measures from that March 2021 stimulus.“The federal government is going to have to figure out ways to bypass these Republican-controlled governors and legislatures to get money in the hands of the cities which are going to be the Democratic Party stronghold,” said Kali Akuno, co-director of Cooperation Jackson, an environmental and climate justice organization in Jackson. “Mississippi typifies that in a lot of ways,” said Akuno, who spoke by phone while scouring the Jackson area to find bottles of water as part of the emergency response effort. “But I think we’re kind of a canary in the coal mine for what’s coming down the road for a lot of municipalities facing similar infrastructure issues.”

'Can't Be Allowed': Alarm as Mississippi Gov. Floats Privatization of Jackson Water System - Water pressure has been restored in Jackson, but residents of Mississippi's capital still lack safe drinking water and now must contend with the threat of privatization—an idea floated by Republican Gov. Tate Reeves and denounced by critics on Monday.Although "the risk with respect to quantity of water has not been eliminated, it has been significantly reduced," Reeves said at a Labor Day press conference in the city. "People in Jackson can trust that water will come out of the faucet, toilets can be flushed, and fires can be put out."While the immediate, flood-induced emergency appears to have been contained, Reeves made clear that when it comes to addressing the Jackson water system's longstanding issues, he is "open" to allowing a profit-maximizing corporation to take over a life-sustaining public good."Privatization is on the table," the governor said. "Having a commission that oversees failed water systems as they have in many states is on the table. I'm open to ideas."The underfunded and understaffed O.B. Curtis Water Treatment Plant is now "pumping out cleaner water than we've seen for a very, very long time," said Reeves, citing local health officials. The governor expressed hope that theboil-water notice affecting more than 150,000 people since July 29 could be lifted within "days, not weeks or months.""We know that it is always possible that there will be more severe challenges," he added. "This water system broke over several years and it would be inaccurate to claim it is totally solved in the matter of less than a week." Flooding—made more common and intense by the fossil fuel-driven climate emergency—was the proximate cause of the recent loss of water pressure in Jackson, but disinvestment, the ultimate cause of the city's ongoing water crisis, can be traced back decades. On Monday, Reeves acknowledged that "there are indeed problems in Jackson that are decades old, on the order of $1 billion to fix." The governor failed to mention, however, how the GOP's refusal to provide financial support at the scale required has helped perpetuate the dangerous status quo.

 Lawmakers eye new spending on Jackson water crisis - Stopgap spending legislation to keep the government running beyond this month may carry funding to address Mississippi’s water crisis, lawmakers said Wednesday. Flooding and equipment breakdowns left 150,000 residents without reliable drinking water for days starting last month. Estimates have varied on how much money is needed to fix the water system and how long those repairs could take. “We historically have never turned our back on our own people when they’re in dire need,” said Senate Appropriations ranking member Richard Shelby (R-Ala.). “We’ll have to see what’s happening.” It’s unclear how much or how fast the bipartisan infrastructure law will help fix Jackson’s problems (Greenwire, Sept. 2). Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said lawmakers need more information about the situation in Jackson, but he expects Congress to help. “There is a federal role there for sure, and this is the appropriate time,” he said. Leaders in both parties are expressing support for approving a continuing resolution by Oct. 1 that runs through the midterm elections. The idea is to give lawmakers room to negotiate a broader package. “We prefer to get an omnibus done before the end of the year,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). “We think there are a good number of Republicans who agree with that.” Schumer said he’ll push to include $47.1 billion in emergency aid sought by the White House for pandemic relief, the Ukraine war and responding to natural disasters. The request emerged before the Jackson crisis grew. The continuing resolution may also carry controversial permitting reform legislation sought by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). “Overall the cleaner [the CR], the better,” said Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Wednesday, suggesting some money could go to flood victims in his home state. Republicans have been cool to more pandemic aid. Many lawmakers from both parties are also uneasy with the CR’s including legislation to protect gay marriage. Schumer said he wants a stand-alone vote ahead of the midterm elections.

 Fall COVID-19 booster campaign begins in the US as CDC approves bivalent vaccines with limited data -The Biden administration and corporate media have sought to cultivate a celebratory mood to the kickoff of the new anti-COVID-19 vaccine booster campaign that has commenced after the Labor Day weekend. Despite the fact that they have not completed any clinical trials to prove their benefit, the newly formulated bivalent vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, which contain a formula tailored to both the ancestral variant and the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, are being touted as the next best defense against the coronavirus. Meanwhile, access to free COVID-19 tests from the federal government has ended, masking and social distancing are not mandated or encouraged in any state, and dashboards tracking COVID-19 infections have been largely dismantled. With K-12 schools and college campuses back in full swing, the number of COVID-19 infections has exploded in these settings without anywhere near adequate testing or data reporting. Worst of all, the daily average for COVID-19 deaths remains stubbornly high at around 500, with barely a mention in the press on the ongoing horrific scale of death across the US. Approximately 37,000 Americans have died during this summer from COVID-19 and 220,000 since January 1. By the end of the year, the official number of deaths from COVID-19 will surpass 1.1 million. After a White House summit on the future of COVID-19 vaccines in late July, the decision was made to purchase bivalent vaccines for this fall, but only if they incorporated the dominant strains of the Omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5. Initially, when the vaccine manufacturers began designing their Omicron-relevant COVID-19 vaccines, they targeted the original subvariants, BA.1 and BA.2. Based on the favorable neutralization titer levels with the BA.1/BA.2 bivalent vaccines, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory panel assumed these would also hold true for BA.4/BA.5 versions. They gave their surest endorsement, and the Biden administration ordered the vaccine manufacturers to make the necessary adjustments and have them ready before Labor Day so their regulatory agencies could sign off on them. Given the sobering estimates at the time that this fall and winter would see over 100 million infections and tens of thousand more deaths, the White House needed to save face. With what remained of the limited COVID-19 funds, 105 million doses of the Pfizer and 66 million doses of the Moderna bivalent COVID-19 boosters were purchased. At the eleventh hour, last Thursday the FDA granted emergency use authorization for the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine boosters. On Saturday, September 3, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) gave a near-unanimous approval, and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky signed off the recommendation.

CDC Gave Facebook Misinformation About COVID-19 Vaccines, Emails Show - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) passed misinformation to Facebook as the partners worked to combat misinformation, according to newly released emails, in the most recent example of CDC officials making false or misleading claims. A general view of the Centers for Disease Control headquarters in Atlanta on April 23, 2020. (Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images) In a June 3 message, a Facebook official said the CDC had helped the company to “debunk claims about COVID vaccines and children,” and asked for assistance addressing claims about the vaccines for babies and toddlers, including the claim that the vaccines weren’t effective. Several weeks later, after U.S. regulators authorized the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for young children and the CDC recommended them, a CDC official responded by offering unsupported information. “Claims that COVID-19 vaccines are ineffective for children ages 6 months to 4 years are false and belief in such claims could lead to back vaccine hesitancy,” the CDC official wrote. The names of all of the officials mentioned in this story were redacted in the emails, which were released as part of ongoing litigation against the U.S. government. “COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States are effective at protecting people, including children ages 6 months to 4 years, from getting seriously ill, being hospitalized, and even dying,” the CDC official added. There’s no evidence that the vaccines are effective against severe illness and death in young children. Lack of Information Zero cases of severe COVID-19 were recorded in Moderna’s trial for children aged 6 months to 5 years, including none in the placebo group. In Pfizer’s trial for children aged 6 months to 4 years, six of the seven cases of COVID-19 occurred in children who received a vaccine. “The clinical trials were not powered to detect efficacy against severe disease in young children,” Dr. Sara Oliver, a CDC official, said during a meeting before the agency recommended the vaccines for young children. Additionally, the endpoint of the trials was a certain level of antibodies, which are believed but not proven to be a way to protect against COVID-19. The level was based on the level from adults in the original trials, which were completed in 2020.

CDC report: 44% of people hospitalized with COVID got third dose, booster - Nearly half of Americans hospitalized in the spring for COVID-19 were fully vaccinated and got a third dose or booster, according to a report by the CDC.Looking at hospitalization data from March 20 to May 31, when the omicron subvariant BA.2 was the dominant strain, researchers found 39.1% of patients received a primary vaccination series and at least one booster or additional dose, while 5% were fully vaccinated plus two boosters.The report, published last week in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, found hospitalization rates among people over 65 increased threefold over the study period as rates among people under 65 increased 1.7-fold.Despite the findings, study authors said rates among unvaccinated adults were still 3.4 times higher than those who were vaccinated.

Judge Halts FBI Use Of Mar-a-Lago Raid Docs, Appoints Special Master To Review - A federal judge on Monday granted former President Trump's request for a third-party expert to review materials seized by the FBI from his Mar-a-Lago residence. US District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, said in a Sunday ruling released on Monday that a so-called special master would review the seized property, manage assertions of privilege, as well as make recommendations regarding the investigative value of materials - and what property should be returned to Trump, Bloomberg reports. BREAKING: Judge Aileen Cannon grants Trump’s request and orders the appointment of a special master to review questions over the materials seized at Mar-a-Lago. She also halts use of the materials for “criminal investigative purposes” pending the special master’s review. pic.twitter.com/VvDzIAzCSF Details of the review process will be decided after both sides submit proposals.

Judge orders halt to DOJ review of documents seized from Trump - A federal judge on Monday ordered a halt to the Justice Department’s review of materials seized from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, describing a threat to institutions and the risk of media leaks that could cause harm to Trump. “Plaintiff faces an unquantifiable potential harm by way of improper disclosure of sensitive information to the public,” U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon wrote in a 24-page ruling issued on Labor Day.Cannon’s order included permitting a so-called special master to review the seized materials for potential attorney-client and executive privilege. Prosecutors expressed exasperation at Trump’s demand to review for executive privilege, noting that there is no precedent for a former executive to assert privilege to bar review of materials by a sitting executive branch — particularly when the government has determined the need is urgent. Anthony Coley, a department spokesperson, said it was “examining the opinion and will consider appropriate next steps in the ongoing litigation.” Cannon, a Trump appointee who was confirmed by the Senate a week after Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election, gave the Justice Department and Trump’s lawyers until Sept. 9 to submit a joint filing to propose a list of special master candidates and outline their duties and limitations. In the meantime, Cannon ruled that the documents would not be returned to Trump. The Justice Department has indicated that if Cannon were to make a ruling of this kind, she should formally enjoin the department, a format that would permit an appeal. In her order on Monday, she did make the findings required for an injunction that is subject to appeal, although she said she was unsure those findings were required in this instance. In her ruling, Cannon specifically wrote that the appointment of a special master “shall not impede” the intelligence community’s ongoing assessment of whether Trump’s possession of the top-secret documents caused harm to U.S. national security. That review, which began in response to inquiries from Congress, is being spearheaded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Opinion | Trump judge's appalling order in Mar-a-Lago case signals a grim future - The Washington Post -- “Nutty. Crazy.” “Twisting the law into a pretzel.” “A poorly sewn-together fabric of factual misstatements and legal BS.” “Laughably bad.” “So bad it’s hard to know where to begin. … Frankly, any of my first-year law students would have written a better opinion.”Those were some of the reactions from legal experts to U.S. District Judge Aileen M. Cannon’s decision to grant Donald Trump’s request for a special master to review documents seized from the former president’s Mar-a-Lago estate in an August search that turned up boxes full of classified, secret and top-secret information. The request could push resolution of the case past the 2024 election.That this judge would give Trump whatever he wanted was, sadly, not a surprise. She was appointed by Trump and confirmed after his defeat but before Democrats took control of the Senate in 2021. We’ve come to expect that if that’s how someone got on the bench, they’ll likely show themselves to be a Trumpist political operative in a robe, rather than an objective jurist.This is our new reality. Nearly every political controversy will include a vital legal component, in which Republicans find a friendly Trump judge to grant whatever preposterous request they make, injecting the courts in place after place they have little or no business meddling.In some cases (including this one) it might merely slow things down, giving the GOP time to press its advantage or avoid disaster. In other cases it will give Republicans an outright victory, on their policy goals or the procedures that help them win more elections. But we’re now in an era in which the courts are more political than ever.This is not an accident, and while it suits Trump perfectly, it was not his design. He was the vehicle of a transformation planned and executed by the Federalist Society, the wider conservative legal movement, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The plan was not just to install as many conservative judges as possible, but to politicize the courts in an unprecedented way.That’s why Trump’s appointees were qualitatively different from those of previous Republican presidents. The Bushes and Ronald Reagan appointed lots of conservative judges, but they also tended to have substantial legal credentials. Even as they leaned toward conservative outcomes, they also maintained a foundation of respect for the system and the law — and they usually (though not always) had some shame, a desire to maintain a reputation as fair and objective jurists.That is most assuredly not how the average judge appointed by Trump sees their role. Cannon’s ruling is the latest example, but we’ve seen others before. Back in April, District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle in Florida issued a nationwide injunction ending the mask mandate on interstate travel, on the ludicrous grounds that stopping the spread of an airborne virus by requiring masks on planes and trains was outside the purview of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Everyone knew what was really going on. Mizelle’s legal analysis was inane, but it didn’t have to be grounded in any reasonable reading of the law. All that mattered was that she delivered the outcome Republicans wanted.Like Cannon, Mizelle was confirmed after Trump lost the election. Like a number of Trump’s other nominees, Mizelle was rated “Not Qualified” by the American Bar Association, but every Republican present in the Senate voted to confirm her, conservatives and alleged “moderates” alike. They knew exactly what they were getting, and it was just what they wanted.

Material on foreign nation’s nuclear capabilities seized at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago - A document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and private club last month, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring concerns among U.S. intelligence officials about classified material stashed in the Florida property. Some of the seized documents detail top-secret U.S. operations so closely guarded that many senior national security officials are kept in the dark about them. Only the president, some members of his Cabinet or a near-Cabinet-level official could authorize other government officials to know details of these special-access programs, according to people familiar with the search, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive details of an ongoing investigation. Documents about such highly classified operations require special clearances on a need-to-know basis, not just top-secret clearance. Some special-access programs can have as few as a couple dozen government personnel authorized to know of an operation’s existence. Records that deal with such programs are kept under lock and key, almost always in a secure compartmented information facility, with a designated control officer to keep careful tabs on their location. But such documents were stored at Mar-a-Lago, with uncertain security, more than 18 months after Trump left the White House. After months of trying, according to government court filings, the FBI has recovered more than 300 classified documents from Mar-a-Lago this year: 184 in a set of 15 boxes sent to the National Archives and Records Administration in January, 38 more handed over by a Trump lawyer to investigators in June, and more than 100 additional documents unearthed in a court-approved search on Aug. 8. It was in this last batch of government secrets, the people familiar with the matter said, that the information about a foreign government’s nuclear-defense readiness was found. These people did not identify the foreign government in question, say where at Mar-a-Lago the document was found or offer additional details about one of the Justice Department’s most sensitive national security investigations.

Trump Told White House Team He Needed to Protect ‘Russiagate’ Documents – IN HIS FINAL days in the White House, Donald Trump told top advisers he needed to preserve certain Russia-related documents to keep his enemies from destroying them. The documents related to the federal investigation into Russian election meddling and alleged collusion with Trump’s campaign. At the end of his presidency, Trump and his team pushed to declassify these so-called “Russiagate” documents, believing they would expose a “Deep State” plot against him. According to a person with direct knowledge of the situation and another source briefed on the matter, Trump told several people working in and outside the White House that he was concerned Joe Biden’s incoming administration — or the “Deep State” — would supposedly “shred,” bury, or destroy “the evidence” that Trump was somehow wronged.Trump’s concern about preserving the Russia-related material is newly relevant after an FBI search turned up a trove of government documents at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago residence. Since the search, Trump has refused to say which classified government papers and top-secret documents he had at Mar-a-Lago and what was the FBI had seized. (Trump considers the documents “mine” and has directed his lawyers to make that widely-panned argument in court.) The feds have publicly released little about the search and its results. It’s unclear if any of the materials in Trump’s document trove are related to Russia or the election interference investigation. A Trump spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. But both Trump and his former Director of National Intelligence have hinted that Russia-related documents could be among the materials the FBI sought. “I think they thought it was something to do with the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax,” Trump said during a Sept. 1 radio interview. “They were afraid that things were in there — part of their scam material.” Former DNI John Ratcliffe told CBS days earlier that, while he had no knowledge of what was in the records, “It wouldn’t surprise me if there were records related to [Russia] there.”

Trump FBI raid: DOJ appeals special master decision - The Department of Justice on Thursday appealed a federal judge's ruling to authorize a special master to review documents that the FBI seized from the Florida residence of former President Donald Trump. The Justice Department also asked Judge Aileen Cannon to pause her related order blocking the government from further reviewing documents marked classified that were found during last month's search of Mar-a-Lago, Trump's Palm Beach resort home. The moves came three days after Cannon approved Trump's request for a special master to sift through the seized materials to identify personal items and records that are protected by attorney-client privilege or executive privilege. The DOJ had opposed that request, saying a team of agency officials had already completed a privilege review of the documents, and that a special master could harm the government's national security interests. In another court filing Thursday, the DOJ asked Cannon to make public a notice on the status of that team's filter review process, which had been filed under seal on Aug. 30. The "broad strokes" of the filter notice have already been made public, since the government had described the review team's process during a court hearing last week, the DOJ said in that filing. But Trump's lawyers object to the filter notice being unsealed, even though they have offered no redactions to the document and have not identified "any basis for asserting privilege," the DOJ said. The FBI seized more than 10,000 government records when it raided Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8. Many of those documents bore classification markings, including dozens of folders that were empty when they were collected by the FBI. Cannon, who was appointed by Trump, wrote in her ruling Monday in U.S. District in Southern Florida that "the country is served best by an orderly process that promotes the interest and perception of fairness." The DOJ's appeal was filed at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, which holds appellate jurisdiction over cases from district courts in Florida. The Justice Department also asked Cannon to stay her order that blocks the agency from further reviewing and using the seized documents with classification markings for criminal investigative purposes, pending the appeal. Last week, the department revealed that the FBI seized more than 100 classified documents during the raid. The DOJ said in Thursday's filing that it is likely to succeed on its appeal as it applies to the classified records, which represent a fraction of the documents that were found at Mar-a-Lago. Trump "does not and could not assert that he owns or has any possessory interest in classified records; that he has any right to have those government records returned to him; or that he can advance any plausible claims of attorney-client privilege as to such records that would bar the government from reviewing or using them," the DOJ wrote.

Trump documents probe: US ready to appeal judge's hold — The Justice Department is preparing to appeal a judge's decision granting the appointment of an independent arbiter to review records seized in a criminal investigation by the FBI from former President Donald Trump's Florida home. Citing national security concerns and other factors, the department also asked U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon to put on hold her directive prohibiting it from using the seized classified records for investigative purposes while it contests her ruling. "Without a stay, the government and public also will suffer irreparable harm from the undue delay to the criminal investigation," department lawyers said in a motion Thursday in which they announced their intent to appeal the order to the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The 21-page Justice Department filing lays bare the government's concern about the impact it believes will be caused by the judge's order, which temporarily halted core aspects of its criminal investigation, and its continued objections to the planned appointment of a "special master" to conduct an independent review of the records taken from Mar-a-Lago. Already, the department said, the intelligence community has paused its separate risk assessment that the judge had permitted to continue because of "uncertainty regarding the bounds of the Court's order." The department gave the judge until next Thursday to stay her original order, saying it would otherwise ask the federal appeals court to do so. Though such an appeal will almost certainly result in further delays to its underlying investigation, the department made clear throughout its motion its belief that it would be "injured" beyond repair if the judge's order was permitted to stand. The judge gave the Trump team until Monday morning to respond to the Justice Department motion. The FBI has been investigating for months what it says was the unlawful retention of national defense information at Mar-a-Lago as well as efforts to obstruct the probe. It is not clear whether Trump or anyone else will face charges. Reacting to Thursday's motion, Trump renewed his attacks on the entire investigation. "So now the FBI and Biden Department of 'Justice' leakers are going to spend Millions of Dollars, & vast amounts of Time and Energy, to appeal the order on the 'Raid of Mar-a-Lago document hoax,'" he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Trump escalates fascist rhetoric in response to Biden’s speech on MAGA Republican threat of dictatorship - In a rambling, two-hour rant Saturday night, Donald Trump sought to turn the tables on President Joe Biden and the Democrats, denouncing Biden’s September 1 speech on the danger of dictatorship posed by Trump and MAGA Republicans and last month’s FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago as an unprecedented attack on democracy “from the radical left.” Trump spoke before several thousand supporters in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, after Biden had kicked off his campaign for Democrats in the November midterm elections with a fundraiser and speech in which he called Trump a “semi-fascist.” This was followed by his speech in front of Independence Hall in Philadelphia Thursday night—a speech with no precedent in US history—in which he essentially warned that the Republican Party under Trump had been transformed into a mass fascist movement that threatened to overthrow the Constitution and take power. The entire event on Saturday confirmed the fascistic character of the Republican Party and Trump’s ongoing efforts, backed by the party leadership, to, in Biden’s words, “give power to decide elections in America to partisans and cronies, empowering election deniers to undermine democracy itself.” At the same time, the rally underscored Trump’s ability to exploit mass social anger and disgust with the Democrats, one of the two entrenched parties of American capitalism, which has, no less than the other state-sanctioned party of the ruling class, presided over decades of war, rising social inequality, economic exploitation and suppression of working class struggles. It was noteworthy, for example, that while Biden was silent on the US proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, knowing it has virtually no popular support, Trump made a point of denouncing the $80 billion allocated thus far for the war and warning that it could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands and even millions of people. Trump exploited as well Biden’s inability to expose the real economic and class interests behind Trump’s antiestablishment demagogy, as well as his own policies. Instead he engaged in moralistic phrases that implicitly blamed the danger of dictatorship on the 74 million people who voted for Trump in 2020, including a large number of working people, most of whom went for Trump by default after the Democratic Party had openly turned its back on the working class. Trump attacked Biden’s speech as an attempt to “demonize half of the population.” He repeated his defense of the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol and denounced the prosecution and jailing of those who sought to kidnap or kill Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic lawmakers in order to block the certification of Biden’s victory, calling them “political protesters.” He reiterated all of the far-right themes that are the stock-in-trade of his fascist politics: anti-immigrant racism, extreme nationalism, religious bigotry, anti-abortion agitation, law and order, glorification of the police and the military, gun rights—all framed by rabid denunciations of socialism. Denouncing the August 8 FBI raid on his Florida compound to secure presidential records and classified documents he was illegally holding there, Trump called Biden an “enemy of the state” and branded the FBI “vicious monsters.”

Justice Dept. and Trump Legal Team Clash Over Special Master Candidates - The Justice Department and lawyers for former President Donald J. Trump failed to agree on Friday on who could serve as an independent arbiter to sift through documents the F.B.I. seized from Mr. Trump’s Florida club and residence last month.In an eight-page joint filing that listed far more points of disagreement than of consensus, the two sides exhibited sharply divergent visions for what the arbiter, known as a special master, would do, and put forth different candidates. The Justice Department proposed two former federal judges for the position: Barbara S. Jones, a Clinton appointee to the Southern District of New York who performed a similar role in cases involving two personal lawyers of Mr. Trump, Michael S. Cohen in 2017 and Rudolph W. Giuliani in 2021; and Thomas B. Griffith, a George W. Bush appointee who retired from the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in 2020.Mr. Trump’s legal team countered with two suggestions of its own: a retired Federal District Court judge, Raymond J. Dearie, a Reagan appointee who sat in the Eastern District of New York and once served as the top federal prosecutor there; and Paul Huck Jr., a former deputy attorney general in Florida who also served as general counsel to Charlie Crist, who was its Republican governor at the time.Mr. Huck is married to Judge Barbara Lagoa, whom Mr. Trump appointed to the Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in Atlanta, which oversees federal courts in Florida. Such an appointment would appear to create a conflict of interest that could require Judge Lagoa to recuse herself from litigation involving the case.Judge Aileen M. Cannon, who ordered the parties to produce a list of qualified candidates by midnight Friday, will ultimately decide who will be tapped for the job. She will also set the parameters of the review.The Justice Department, seeking to quickly finish its investigation into Mr. Trump’s handling of sensitive government documents, proposed setting a deadline of Oct. 17 for completion of the arbiter’s work; Mr. Trump’s team suggested taking 90 days — or about three times as long.The department also said Mr. Trump should pay for the master since he had asked for it; Mr. Trump’s team proposed that taxpayers split the cost.The two sides also clashed substantially over the duties of the special master. Mr. Trump’s lawyers argued that the arbiter should look at all the documents seized in the search and filter out anything potentially subject to attorney-client or executive privilege.By contrast, the government argued that the master should look only at unclassified documents and should not adjudicate whether anything was subject to executive privilege.Mr. Trump’s lawyers are also asking the court to exclude National Archives officials from the process of reviewing the materials; the department believes their involvement is essential.

'Astounding': Trump documents reveal casual disregard for long-standing security protocols – In service to two presidents, Leon Panetta’s appreciation for the risk posed by mishandling classified documents remains palpable nearly a decade removed from the top echelons of government. “I would have been scared to death to see a (news) story detailing how the White House was careless with classified information,” said Panetta, whose other assignments included terms as CIA director, defense secretary and White House chief of staff. “I lived in fear, knowing what goes into gathering that information.” It is why Panetta expresses shock at the catalog of sensitive records – some designated as the most sensitive in the government’s arsenal – seized last month from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago beach club. “It’s astounding,” Panetta said. Yet, while Trump remains the central focus of public scrutiny, Panetta and other former officials said the security breach that has prompted a criminal investigation and a new assessment of the related, potential intelligence threat underscore a broader breakdown of national security guardrails that first allowed caches of highly sensitive documents to land in an unsecured storage room and desk drawers at the former president's Florida resort. Andrew Card, who served three presidents and more than five years as chief of staff in the George W. Bush administration, said the volume and sensitivity of the records found at Mar-a-Lago bear no resemblance to the document security practiced during his time at the White House. "I would have hoped somebody was saying very early on that there are documents not accounted for," Card said. "Where are they?" Any administration's national security strategy weighs heavily on the quality and quantity of its intelligence. That's why, analysts say, there are necessary and long-established protocols for ensuring the protection of the nation's most sensitive information. Much of it can be viewed only in secure rooms, known in the dense vernacular of government as Sensitive Compartmented Information Facilities (SCIFS). And in those facilities, information gathered by networks of spies, electronic intercepts and other methods, are locked away in vaults, accessible only to designated officials.Tracking systems are supposed to ensure that the material always returns. Yet, in the waning days of the Trump administration those strict protocols appeared to have been inexplicably cast aside, leaving hundreds of classified records at risk. Ultimately, it was the National Archives and Records Administration's long pursuit of records that forced the issue into the public spotlight and helped prompt the Justice Department's criminal investigation."This appears to be totally undisciplined," Panetta said. "I suspect there wasn't anyone (in the administration) who felt they could call attention to this...There should have been people from the intelligence community to make sure a process was followed."

"This Is A Political Hit Job": Steve Bannon Surrenders To Court In New York Over Fresh Charges - Steve Bannon on Sept. 8 surrendered to authorities in New York over fresh charges related to his involvement with a scheme to build border barriers on private land. Bannon, an ex-adviser to former President Donald Trump, entered the office of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg around 9:30 a.m. An indictment filed in New York Supreme Court says Bannon laundered money and committed a conspiracy to defraud donors through “We Build the Wall,” which saw a group raise funds they said would go towards building barriers along the U.S.–Mexico border. Bannon and others “solicited donations and raised money from donors throughout the United States, including several hundred from New York County, based on the false representation that none of the money donated to WeBuildTheWall, Inc. would be used to pay Unindicted Co-Conspirator 1’s salary,” the document states. The defendant faces up to 34 years in jail if convicted. “There cannot be one set of rules for everyday people and another for the wealthy and powerful—we all must play by the same rules and must obey the law,” New York Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement. “Mr. Bannon took advantage of his donors’ political views to secure millions of dollars which he then misappropriated. Mr. Bannon lied to his donors to enrich himself and his friends. We will continue to take on fraudulent behavior in every corner of society, including white collar criminals, because no one is above the law,” she added. Bannon said in a statement to news outlets that authorities have “decided to pursue phony charges against me 60 days before the midterm election,” calling the charges “nothing more than a partisan political weaponization of the criminal justice system.”

An ex-professor spreads election myths across the U.S., one town at a time - — One recent still summer night in this tiny city on the Nebraska prairie, more than 60 people showed up at a senior citizens center to hear attorney David Clements warn of an epidemic of purported election fraud. For two hours, Clements — who has the rumpled look of an academic, though he lost his business school professor’s job last fall for refusing to wear a mask in class — spoke of breached voting machines, voter roll manipulation and ballot stuffing that he falsely claims cost former president Donald Trump victory in 2020. The audience, which included a local minister, a bank teller and farmers in their overalls, gasped in horror or whispered “wow” with each new claim. “We’ve never experienced a national coup,” he told the crowd, standing before red, white and blue signs strung up alongside a bingo board. “And that’s what we had.” Advertisement Clements, who has no formal training or background in election systems, spent months crisscrossing the back roads in his home state of New Mexico in a battered Buick, trying to convince local leaders not to certify election results. His words had an impact: In June, officials in three New Mexico counties where he made his case either delayed or voted against certification of this year’s primary results, even though there was no credible evidence of problems with the vote. Now, Clements has taken his message nationwide, traveling to small towns in more than a dozen states, with a focus, he said, on places that are “forgotten and abandoned and overlooked.” His crusade to prove that voting systems can’t be trusted has deepened fears among election experts, who say his meritless claims could give Trump allies more fodder to try to disrupt elections in November and beyond. Republican primary candidates embracing Trump’s stolen election rhetoric have flourished this year. Clements’s strategy is to target his message locally: to county commissioners and clerks, jobs that are lower profile but that wield an outsize role in administering America’s decentralized election system. If local jurisdictions fail to certify their votes, it could throw the outcome of an election into chaos, raising doubt about the results and giving ammunition to losing candidates who refuse to accept their defeat. Clements is one among a tightknit circle of Trump supporters who travel the country as self-appointed election fraud evangelists. They embrace the instructions of leaders like former Trump adviser turned podcaster Stephen K. Bannon, who has urged election deniers to run for local races and sign up to be poll workers in what he calls his “precinct-by-precinct” takeover strategy.

195 Election Deniers Are on the Ballot in November—And Many Are Expected to Win As political voices—including U.S. President Joe Biden—sound the alarm about the state of American democracy nine weeks away from the midterms,FiveThirtyEight on Tuesday published an analysis highlighting election deniers on the ballot. To determine which candidates bought into former President Donald Trump's "Big Lie" that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him,FiveThirtyEight examined campaign materials, debates, reporting, and social media, and contacted every Republican nominee for the U.S. House and Senate as well as governor, secretary of state, and attorney general.The review revealed that of all 529 GOP candidates analyzed, 195 "either clearly stated that the election was stolen from Trump or took legal action to overturn the results, such as voting not to certify election results or joining lawsuits that sought to overturn the election."Another 61 nominees haven't explicitly claimed the election was stolen or taken related legal action but also haven't said it was legitimate and even "raised doubts about potential fraud."Additionally, the position of 115 candidates could not be determined. AsFiveThirtyEight explained, "They either had no comment on the 2020 election or avoided answering when asked directly."Only 71 nominees fully accepted the 2020 results and another 87 "accepted with reservations," meaning they believe President Joe Biden won "but still raised concerns about the integrity of the election." In other words, just 30% of the GOP candidates accept the election in some form.Many election deniers and "doubters" are expected to win their races, according to FiveThirtyEight's midterm elections forecast.Among Republican House candidates, "118 election deniers and eight election doubters have at least a 95% chance of winning." While only three Senate candidates have those odds—and seven senators who objected to the election certification are not up for reelection this year—there are a few others who "still have a real shot at winning."At the state level, at least two election deniers and four doubters have a 95% chance of being elected governor. FiveThirtyEight doesn't forecast elections for the other positions but pointed out that "there are also seven election deniers running for attorney general and six for secretary of state, the post that oversees election administration in most states."

The new, Breitbart-produced Hunter Biden film is a sign of the political wars to come - — “My Son Hunter” is not your prototypical Hollywood movie — and it did not get a typical Hollywood premiere. The new film produced by the conservative media empire Breitbart and released today had its first public viewing last Wednesday night at a small screening room inside a nondescript office building on South Sepulveda Boulevard, Los Angeles.It was miles away from Tinseltown’s red carpets, literally and figuratively. In place of cocktails and expensive hors d’oeuvres were bottled water and pre-bagged “Corn Pop,” a wink at a story Joe Biden has often told about this youth in Delaware intermingling with the city’s Black population. “Corn Pop” was a real person, but sometimes, the president recounts it in ways that have drawn mockery.The screening was followed by a trivia game about the film where the prizes for the 70 or so guests included a hefty-sized bong and Parmesan cheese. Both are references to Hunter Biden’s drug abuse, including his frank admission that he was so addicted to crack cocaine that he tried smokingeveryone’s favorite spaghetti topping.A representative promoting the film said beforehand that Oscar winner Jon Voight was set to attend, but he did not make it. The highest profile actors were Dean Cain, best known for playing Superman in “Lois & Clark: The New Adventures of Superman,” and Nick Searcy. Consider it the MAGA set for the movie industry. Searcy is a star of the show “Justified” who also recently produced a documentary on Jan. 6 called “Capitol Punishment.” Cain has played former FBI agent Peter Strzok in a stage play called “FBI Lovebirds” that was produced by one of the people behind “My Son Hunter,” Phelim McAleer. While the scene may not have been as glamorous as across town, it is part of a growing effort among some conservative groups to find a firmer footprint in the film industry as a counterculture to what they see as Hollywood’s liberal agenda. The Daily Wire has released three feature films online this year, and “My Son Hunter” is Breitbart’s first effort in producing a dramatization. Producers hope the film will have a wider reach and impact. When explaining the impetus behind it, director Robert Davi has frequently invoked the line from the late Andrew Breitbart, founder of the eponymous website: Politics is downstream from culture.

 Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan’s Trading Scandal and the Merrick Garland Justice Department’s One Year of Silence - By Pam and Russ Martens - On August 11, the Attorney General of the U.S. Department of Justice, Merrick Garland, told the American people at a press conference that: “Faithful adherence to the rule of law is the bedrock principle of the Justice Department and of our democracy. Upholding the rule of law means applying the rule of law evenly, without fear or favor.”That was certainly not true of Eric Holder’s Justice Department under President Obama, nor was it true of William Barr’s Justice Department under President Trump. In fact, just the opposite was true. Under Holder, the Justice Department functioned as a coverup and white-washing mechanism for a crime syndicate of powerful players on Wall Street. (See here andhere.) Under Barr, the Justice Department took a machete to the rule of law and sculpted an art form out of doling out favorable treatment to criminal actors. Today, despite Merrick Garland’s lofty words about operating without fear or favor, there is a strong stench surrounding the lack of action by the Justice Department against former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan — a former Vice Chair of Goldman Sachs. This Wednesday marks the one-year anniversary of Wall Street Journal reporter Mike Derby setting off a five-alarm media fire with his reporting that Kaplan had “made multiple million-dollar-plus stock trades in 2020,” a year when Kaplan had inside information on the unprecedented actions the Fed was taking to support Wall Street and the U.S. economy during the pandemic as a voting member of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Derby’s article was the launch pad for the largest trading scandal at the Fed in its 109-year history. Kaplan resigned his post on September 27, 2021 along with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who had made much smaller trades in real estate investment trusts. The Vice Chair of the Fed, Richard Clarida,stepped down in January following scrutiny of his trading. But what Rosengren and Clarida had done, based on known facts to date, dramatically paled in comparison to what Kaplan had been doing for five continuous years. When Wall Street On Parade obtained Kaplan’s trading records from the Dallas Fed shortly after Derby’s article had run, it became clear that the stock trading was the least of the problem. Kaplan had actually been trading a far more sinister instrument for a man sitting on inside information. With the apparent approval of the then General Counsel/Ethics Officer of the Dallas Fed, Sharon Sweeney, who had signed her name to Kaplan’s trading records, Kaplan had been placing million-dollar-plus trades in S&P 500 futures and had been doing so for the entire five years he had been at the Dallas Fed. A trader can obtain as much as 95 percent leverage on this contract. (See Kaplan’s financial disclosure forms from 2015 through 2020 here.) Equally outrageous, Kaplan had defied the public disclosure requirements of the Federal Reserve that required him to disclose the specific dates of his trades. Kaplan simply typed the word “multiple” where the specific date of each trade should have been entered. Wall Street On Parade, other members of the press, as well as Senator Elizabeth Warren demanded that the Federal Reserve turn over Kaplan’s trading dates. The Fed refused. (For how Wall Street On Parade’s Freedom of Information Request was handled by the Fed, see here.) Kaplan was a sophisticated Wall Street veteran who worked at Goldman Sachs for 22 years, rising to the rank of Vice Chairman. As such, he would have certainly understood that the type of trading he was doing could subject him to an investigation for insider trading. The year 2020 presented a prime opportunity for a nimble trader (with inside information on actions the Fed planned to take) to make large profits in the stock market from short-term trading. As a result of the lockdowns from the pandemic, GDP fell by 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020– the largest decline on record. At numerous times during 2020, the Fed was making dramatic market-moving announcements of interest rate cuts and the creation of a multitude of emergency lending facilities and emergency measures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average first gyrated to a year-to-date loss of 30 percent in late March 2020 and then climbed on the Fed announcements to set an all-time high in November 2020. The Federal Reserve had rules against the very type of speculative trading done by Kaplan for decades. Then those rules mysteriously vanished into thin air.

 EV SPAC Faraday Future Breaks the Buck, 14 Months after Going Public. Consensual Hallucination Was so Bad it Was Funny by Wolf Richter - I assume all the fine print was copied and pasted into every document that no one read, and that no one is going to jail because this is just a funny clown show that peaked in February 2021, after which the whole thing fell apart as these hype and hoopla stocks have plunged by 80% or 90% or more. That any of these outfits found folks eager to buy their shares is proof of the mind-boggling intensity of the Consensual Hallucination that reigned back then.In 2021, there were still lots of stragglers out there that hadn’t merged yet with a SPAC or hadn’t yet gone public via IPO, and even as many of the SPAC and IPO stocks were already collapsing for all to see, new money had to be found to allow the stragglers to get out too.One of them was an EV outfit with still no car and no revenues, but with a ridiculous pile of problems, maddening disclosures, investigations, whistleblowers, and internal revolts: Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.It started trading as a public company in July 2021, and this morning, 14 months later, its shares dropped below $1, having become the hobby of day traders that are shuffling them back and forth amongst each other. Faraday Future announced with enormous hype and hoopla in January 2021, at the hype-and-hoopla apex, that it would go public via merger with a SPAC. The merger was completed in July 2021 when the SPAC’s stock ticker was changed to represent Faraday Future Intelligent Electric [FFIE]. This is funny because on April 20, 2021, as I was already reporting on theImploded Stocks, I posted an article titled, The WTF Charts of the EV SPAC Hype Boom Are Imploding Spectacularly. Even though Faraday hadn’t become a publicly traded company yet, it already featured in this article.[….] You see how funny this stuff is? On February 1, 2021, days after the announcement of the merger, the shares of the SPAC hit their intraday high of $20.75.By the time the SPAC merger was completed and the shares began to trade under the new ticker [FFIE] on July 22, 2021, the price had already come down. But in the morning of that day, shares “popped” 9% to $15.02, according to Barron’s, which added to the hype-and-hoopla with its article titled, “Faraday Future Stock Is Popping. Here’s Why,” wherein it explained what makes Faraday such a hot company. And the stock has collapsed ever since. At the time of the Barron’s article, the market cap was $4.7 billion. This morning, the stocks trades at 96 cents, and the market cap is something like $310 million.

 Fed, FDIC, OCC commit to implementing Basel III endgame 'as soon as possible' - Top bank regulators promised to propose a new rule that would enable them to adopt the final pieces of the Basel III international regulatory framework "as soon as possible." In a joint statement issued Friday morning, the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said implementing the Basel III endgame, also known as Basel IV, would make the banking system more resilient and doing so is "a priority for the agencies." In the statement, the agencies lauded the importance of maintaining robust capital standards. "Strong capital requirements have proven to be a critical element of the bank regulatory framework, allowing the banking industry during times of economic stress to serve as a source of strength for the U.S. economy and to lend to creditworthy households and businesses," they wrote. Issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in 2017, the Basel III endgame consists of the final piece of the international standards rolled out following the financial crisis of 2008. It sets guidelines for addressing market risk, operational risk, credit risk and leverage ratios. The rules only apply to large banks. The deadline for regulators to adopt the Basel III endgame is January 2023 and the US still has significant work to do to be compliant with the standards. Doing so requires the regulators to shepherd any necessary policy changes through the rulemaking process established by the Administrative Procedure Act, which can take several months or more than a year to complete. The Fed, FDIC and OCC did not provide a time frame for introducing a rule change to meet the Basel standards or commit to completing the process by the beginning of next year. The reaffirmation by the three agencies came two days after Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, the central bank's chief regulator, said preparing the banking system to meet Basel III standards was among his top priorities and would be part of a comprehensive review of capital requirements, which will begin in earnest this fall.

Quarles: Supreme Court ruling could lead to European-style approach to bank regulation -Randal Quarles, the former vice chair for supervision for the Federal Reserve, said a recent Supreme Court ruling could make American bank regulators more similar to their European counterparts. In the European Union, regulatory bodies send proposed rule changes to the legislature to be approved, denied or amended. Quarles said the case, West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, which was decided earlier this summer in favor of the plaintiffs, could lead to a similar arrangement in the U.S."A possible implication of the West Virginia case would seem to be that — and you can hardly say the administrative state in Europe has withered away — but that we should follow a practice that's much more like that," he said. "Right now, we have the Congressional Review Act, which is sort of a reverse of that, Congress can take up an administrative action and reject it." Quarles's remarks were delivered during a Tuesday afternoon panel on bank regulation atThe Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute Annual Conference in New York City. At the heart of the West Virginia v. EPA case is to what degree agencies can establish new regulations not spelled out in authorizing legislation. Prior to this suit, which challenged a cap on carbon emissions set by the EPA, the long-running precedent was to give broad regulators a wide berth in interpreting their governing statutes. The court's ruling erodes that deference at least somewhat, but how much remains to be determined. "In the six-three decision, the Supreme Court struck down the EPA regulations by invoking the so called Major Questions Doctrine, specifically the Supreme Court ruled that in extraordinary cases where the political and economic significance of agency action is especially pronounced, that a court needs to look to and find clear congressional authorization in order to uphold that rule," Jeremy Newell, a senior fellow with BPI and a former Fed lawyer who also participated in the panel, said. "In this particular case, it concluded that the EPA for that regulation, there wasn't a clear congressional authorization." Newell said the Major Questions Doctrine will have broad implications on how future regulatory challenges are interpreted, but noted that more litigation will be necessary to hammer out the exact parameters of the jurisprudence.

FDIC: Problem Banks Unchanged, Residential REO Decreased Slightly in Q2 2022 --The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 2022 this morning: Quarterly net income totaled $64.4 billion in second quarter 2022, a reduction of $6.0 billion (8.5 percent) from the same quarter a year ago. ... Loans and leases that are 30-89 days past due (past-due loan balances) increased from the year-ago quarter (up $11.4 billion, or 25.0 percent). Past-due consumer loans drove the increase from the year-ago quarter. The increase in past-due loan balances lifted the past due rate 6 basis points from the year-ago quarter to 0.48 percent. The past-due rate remained unchanged from the previous quarter, however, as loan growth outpaced the quarterly growth in past due loans.Despite the recent increase, the past-due rate remains below the pre-pandemic average of 0.66 percent. The FDIC reported the number of problem banks was unchanged at 40. The number of FDIC-insured institutions declined from 4,796 in first quarter 2022 to 4,771. In second quarter, 6 banks opened and 28 institutions merged with other FDIC-insured institutions. The number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” remained unchanged from first quarter at 40, the lowest level since QBP data collection began in 1984. Total assets of problem banks declined $2.7 billion to $170.4 billion. No banks failed in the second quarter. This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks and assets at problem institutions. Note: The number of assets for problem banks increased significantly back in 2018 when Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas was added to the list. An even larger bank was added to the list last year, although the identity of the bank is unclear. The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) decreased slightly from $788 million in Q1 2022 to $784 million in Q2 2022. This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

Fed's Barr hints at reforms in capital, merger and climate policies - — The Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision laid out an expansive vision for his approach to financial regulation in the Biden era on Wednesday, suggesting that the central bank would pursue significant reforms of banks' capital rules, climate-risk assessments and bank-merger reviews. In his first public remarks since being sworn in in July, Michael Barr told a Brookings Institution audience that he would seek to make the U.S. financial system "safer and fairer, in support of an economy that serves the needs of households and businesses." Regulators must be vigilant and maintain "an active and never-ending effort" to police the financial system, Barr said in prepared remarks. "Success in financial regulation and supervision does not mean standing still," Barr said, "because finance does not stand still. The regulatory and supervisory framework adopted after the crisis recognizes that innovation and change are constant in finance, that our understanding of existing and emerging risks can and should deepen over time, and that regulation and supervision must evolve to be effective." Barr's speech echoed a key remark made during his Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing, when the former University of Michigan academic and Treasury Department official in the Obama administration said he intended to reevaluate banks' capital requirements ""as a whole, rather than piece by piece." While Barr spoke in broad strokes on Wednesday, he said he would have "more to say" on capital requirements "later this fall."

U.S. officials discuss two different kinds of climate risk for banks - Representatives from the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency spoke Wednesday about the opportunities and perils for banks that are grappling with the impact of climate change. The comments, which came at an industry conference in New York, illustrated the tightrope that banks are walking as they try to balance the demands of regulators who are calling for more climate risk disclosure with those of red-state officials who are resisting the transition away from fossil fuels. Kevin Stiroh, a senior advisor in the Fed's division of supervision and regulation, advocated for climate disclosure "harmonization" to provide "interoperability" between investors, lenders and other stakeholders who are assessing decarbonization strategies. Stiroh said that he was speaking in his capacity as co-chair of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Risks for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a global standard-setting organization. Speaking at a conference co-sponsored by the Bank Policy Institute and The Clearing House, Stiroh called it "absolutely critical" for companies to standardize climate disclosures in order "to ensure that firms are resilient to the financial risks of climate change." His comments come amid an ongoing debate over a Securities and Exchange Commission proposal unveiled in March that would require corporations to report publicly on emissions generated by their business activities.

Bank exams plummet with 'remote' supervision as small banks struggled: GAO - Some small banks and credit unions are still operating in the technological Dark Ages, unable to upload files during the pandemic to regulators, who were forced to scale back audits, the Government Accountability Office said. The revelation that some small financial institutions are still relying heavily on paper files and couldn't send documents to their regulators' secure portals was revealed Thursday in a49-page GAO report.Some small banks were unable to perform routine tasks such as sharing credit files or loan documents with examiners and couldn't provide access to internal systems so examiners could conduct loan reviews and testing, the GAO said. A Government Accountability Office report found that bank examinations fell during the pandemic, with a 30% drop in examinations by the Federal Reserve. Technological shortcomings, particularly among smaller banks, contributed to the drop.The report, a post-mortem examining "lessons learned" from remote bank supervision, found that regulators faced many challenges conducting audits due to the technology gap between large and small financial institutions."In order to accommodate a fully off-site examination during the pandemic, smaller institutions needed on-site staff and technology resources to scan loan files or coordinate remote access to their internal systems," the GAO said. "Some institutions lacked staff resources or faced technological limitations."The idea that some banks could not upload documents as part of routine exam work is puzzling given that most audit firms use secure portals and adjusted during the pandemic to sharing documents, even in Zoom meetings.The GAO interviewed 110 examiners at five regulatory agencies and found that regulators temporarily delayed exams when banks could not provide loan files or other documentation for examiners to assign a rating. The government watchdog noted that regulators went into overdrive in March 2020 by deferring exams, expanding off-site monitoring, adjusting telework policies, and providing technology and guidance to examiners working remotely.

Unfettered fintech, crypto taking banks' turf, ex-comptroller says -Fintech and cryptocurrency firms competing with banks but subject to fewer regulations are "getting away with murder," said Eugene Ludwig, a former comptroller under the Bill Clinton administration. These new types of companies that take deposits and provide lending without proper oversight could be the reason for the next recession, Ludwig said during a Tuesday panel at the Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute's annual conference in New York. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve gets into crypto by endorsing a central bank digital currency, that will take the deposit experience away from banking and into the government, which will present "all kinds of problems," he added. Banks should "retake the turf rather than let the turf devolve away" and be allowed to "play more aggressively in the crypto markets," Ludwig said, though the tendency now is to do the opposite.

Regulators take a tough look at small banks' partnerships with fintechs - Small banks that partner with fintech companies can expect more governmental scrutiny of those arrangements, industry observers said in response to a recent enforcement actionagainst a community bank in Virginia.Under a public agreement last month with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Blue Ridge Bank in Martinsville must bolster its oversight of fintech partners and improve its controls for the prevention of money laundering.The move against the $2.8 billion-asset Blue Ridge comes as the OCC is focusing more attention on bank-fintech partnerships. "There's every reason to believe it's symptomatic of wider increased scrutiny, at a minimum from the OCC," said Jason Mikula, a former Goldman Sachs executive who writes the Fintech Business Weekly newsletter on Substack.Since last year, Blue Ridge has drawn criticism from consumer advocates over an arrangement with a fintech company to provide education financing that students repay with a portion of their income after joining the workforce.But the concerns that sparked Blue Ridge's agreement last month with the OCC don't appear to be specific to the bank's involvement with student income-share agreements. At the end of last year, Blue Ridge listed 10 fintech partnerships, including one with a company called Aeldra Financial.Until recently, Aeldra was offering U.S. bank accounts, in partnership with Blue Ridge, to non-U.S. citizens in India. The fintech touted its ability to open a U.S. bank account in 10 minutes for customers with an Indian passport.

OOC's Hsu says bank-fintech relationships may be a systemic risk - Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu warned that widespread and increasingly complex relationships between banks and fintechs could set the stage for a financial crisis. At a conference of bankers in New York hosted by the Bank Policy Institute and the Clearing House Association, Hsu said that he's concerned with the increase in complexity in business models that facilitate things like mobile payments, online lending and deposit-taking activities. "The 'de-integration' of banking services that is taking place now has its roots in technology, data, operations," Hsu said. "It is affecting all banks, not just the large money-center banks. My strong sense is that this process, left to its own devices, is likely to accelerate and expand until there is a severe problem, or even a crisis." Hsu said that while crypto has grabbed the most headlines, fintechs and large technology companies warrant more attention in the regulatory sphere. The rise of online banking has made banks and fintechs rely on each other's expertise in order to scale up operations quickly, Hsu noted. "By partnering, banks can gain speed to market and access to technological innovation at lower cost, while fintechs seek to benefit from banks' reputations for being trustworthy, longstanding customer bases, and access to cheaper capital and funding sources," Hsu said. "As a result, bank-fintech partnerships have been growing at exponential rates and have gotten more complicated."

Industry profits decline as large banks prepare for rising interest rates: FDIC — Bank net income declined year-over-year as large banks set aside capital to weather rising interest rates and other economic headwinds, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Quarterly Banking Profile. Bank profit in the second quarter dropped 8.5% from a year ago to $64.4 billion, the FDIC said. Provision expense increased $21.9 billion from the year-ago quarter, driven largely by banks with more than $250 billion in assets. "The banking industry continues to face significant downside risks. These risks include the effects of high inflation, rapidly rising market interest rates, and continued geopolitical uncertainty," said acting FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg in a statement. "Taken together, these risks may reduce profitability, weaken credit quality and capital, and limit loan growth in coming quarters. Net income grew, however, $4.6 billion from the first quarter, as a rise in net interest income offset the growth in provision expense. Net interest margin widened, increasing 26 basis points from the last quarter to 2.8%. Deposits fell for the first time since 2018, Gruenberg said in his opening statement, largely due to a reduction in uninsured deposits along with a small decline in insured deposits. Deposits are still "well above" pre-pandemic levels, Gruenberg said. The FDIC said in June that it would raise deposit insurance assessment rates by 2 basis points amid a glut of deposits for all insured depository institutions. While the FDIC says this will have only a modest effect on industry profits, the banking industry has pushed back against the plan, saying the timing isn't right for an assessment hike and rising interest rates will complicate the FDIC's calculations.

Toomey demands tougher enforcement on banks' deals with community groups - — The top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee is urging federal banking regulators to change the rules governing public disclosures around certain types of community benefit agreements under the Community Reinvestment Act, arguing that more transparency is needed. In a letter obtained by American Banker and sent to leaders of the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Wednesday, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pennsylvania, criticized the degree of "opacity" surrounding some community benefit plans — or written agreements between banks and community groups ahead of a merger that often involve multibillion-dollar commitments to make loans and investments in local markets. "Although these [community benefit plans] are meant to show compliance with the law, the CBP details are often shielded from public scrutiny," Toomey wrote in the letter dated Sept. 7 and addressed to Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, acting Comptroller Michael Hsu and acting FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg. "Greater transparency is critically necessary for Congress and the public to judge the efficacy of the CRA and its implementing regulations." "We've received the letter and plan to respond," a spokesperson for the Federal Reserve said. Representatives of the FDIC and OCC declined to comment. Under the CRA, banks are required to direct a certain amount of loans and other resources to low-to-moderate-income communities in their service areas. When a bank with poor CRA scores attempts to enter into a merger, community reinvestment groups can object to the deal and put it at risk.

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Total market leverage was just 42% of mortgaged homes’ values, the lowest on record" - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Total market leverage was just 42% of mortgaged homes’ values, the lowest on record" A brief excerpt: Most homeowners have a significant amount of equity and will not be “underwater” if house prices decline. This is an important difference compared to the housing bubble when many millions of borrowers had little or no equity even before house prices declined. As Black Knight notes in their monthly Mortgage Monitor report released this morning: Overall, the market is on strong footing to weather a correction; total market leverage as of Q2 – including both first and second liens – was just 42% of mortgaged homes’ values, the lowest on record The first graph shows Black Knight’s estimate of tappable equity.

• Tappable equity – the amount a homeowner can borrow against while keeping a 20% equity stake – hit its 10th consecutive quarterly record high in Q2 2022 at $11.5T but appears to have peaked in May of this year
• Escalating declines in June and July have total tappable equity down 5% over the past two months, suggesting a sizeable reduction is likely in Q3, which would mark the first quarterly decline in three years

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 2, 2022. ... The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved higher over the course of last week as markets continued to re-assess the prospects for the economy and the path of monetary policy, with expectations for short-term rates to move and stay higher for longer,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “With the 30-year fixed rate rising to the highest level since mid-June, application volumes for both purchase and refinance loans dropped. Recent economic data will likely prevent any significant decline in mortgage rates in the near term, but the strong job market depicted in the August data should support housing demand. There is no sign of a rebound in purchase applications yet, but the robust job market and an increase in housing inventories should lead to an eventual increase in purchase activity.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.94 percent from 5.80 percent, with points increasing to 0.79 from 0.71 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 23% year-over-year unadjusted. The purchase index is now only 8% above the pandemic low.

 The Holy-Moly 6.25% Mortgage is Back, Treasury Yields Spike, Summer Bear-Market Rally Unwinds - by Wolf Richter - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, after weeks of enormous day-to-day volatility, was back at 6.25% on Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Today’s rate was just about even with the June-14 high of 6.28%, before the beautiful summer bear-market rally set in and turned everything upside down for a couple of months. With mortgage rates, that rally has now unwound.I call them holy-moly mortgage rates because that’s the sound people are making when they figure the mortgage payment at those rates to buy their dream shack at today’s ridiculous prices (chart via Mortgage News Daily):The bear-market rally was quite something. It started in mid-June and ran through mid-August. Both bonds and stocks surged, and then began unwinding the surge. While stocks have only partially unwound the bear market rally, mortgages and Treasury securities have unwound all of it already.The 1-year Treasury yield jumped by 14 basis points, to 3.61%, the highest since November 2007. The spike started in November 2021, from near 0%. The summer bear-market rally was shallow and is barely visible in the long-term chart: The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points today to 3.50%, nearly matching the 3.51% last Thursday, which had been the highest since November 2007. The spike started in September 2021, when the Fed had its infamous pivot, the real one, and the 2-year yield reacted instantly. The summer rally was a little more pronounced than with the 1-year yield: The 10-year Treasury yield jumped by 13 basis points today to 3.33%, the third highest since February 2011, behind only a couple of days in mid-June before the summer bear-market rally kicked off, which has now been wrung out of the 10-year yield:The 30-year Treasury yield jumped by 14 basis points to 3.49%, the highest since September 2011, having squeaked past the November 2018 high. The summer bear-market rally is nicely visible in the chart, but right in line with other short-lived rallies:So now there is all kinds of hand-wringing about the end of the bear-market rally that had been so much fun over the summer and that ended in mid-August at which point stocks and bonds began to spiral down again.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 15.8% YoY in July - Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Year-Over-Year Home Price Growth Dips Again in July as Higher Mortgage Rates Cool Demand - CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for July 2022. Annual home price growth slowed for the third consecutive month in July but remained elevated at 15.8%. As 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages neared 6% this summer, some prospective homebuyers pulled back, helping ease overheated and unsustainable price growth. Notably,home prices declined by 0.3% from June to July, a trend not seen between 2010 and 2019, when price increases averaged 0.5% between those two months, according to CoreLogic’s historic data. Looking ahead, CoreLogic expects to see a more balanced housing market, with year-over-year appreciation slowing to 3.8% by July 2023. “Following June’s surge in mortgage rates and the resulting dampening effect on housing demand, price growth is taking a decisive turn,” said Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “And even though annual price growth remains in double digits, the month-over-month decline suggests further deceleration on the horizon. The higher cost of homeownership has clearly eroded affordability, as inflation-adjusted monthly mortgage expenses are now even higher than they were at their former peak in 2006.”

 Unplugged: Why utilities are more likely to disconnect Black, Latino, and Indigenous households - Over 20 million households in the US have unpaid electricity bills. But it’s not just inflation that is putting them behind; it’s also our increasingly extreme weather. Blistering temperatures over the summer led many to keep their air conditioning on longer than they might normally. And now that winter is on the horizon, the cost of heating adds to the stress. “There’s no relief in sight,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, or NEADA, which monitors the effectiveness of federal utility assistance programs. “All signs point to another expensive winter.”And for many of the nation’s struggling families, this means dealing with service shut-offs, deciding whether to “heat or eat,” or continuing to incur debts to utilities that will eventually have to be paid. Black, Latino, and Indigenous households are the most at risk of having their power cut off. According to a survey on electricity utility equity conducted by Indiana University’s Energy Justice Lab in January, nearly 40 percent of Hispanic households and more than 26 percent of Black households said that they were unable to pay their electricity bill. Twenty-nine percent of Hispanic households and 20 percent of Black households received a disconnection notice, and more than 18 percent of Hispanic households and 13 percent of Black households had their energy service disconnected. Hispanic households were 80 percent more likely than White households to have their service disconnected by a utility provider. A separate study on water equity by the Pacific Institute found that Black households that receive a utility shutoff warning notice are more than twice as likely to be disconnected as White households receiving a notice. Black households, while making up approximately 14 percent of the nation’s housing stock, nonetheless represented 29 percent of the total disconnections. Native American households were disconnected at the highest rate, at 4 percent, though they only make up 1 percent of the national population. The impacts of redlining and disinvestment mean that Black and Latino neighborhoods are more likely to have aging and low quality infrastructure, and are more likely to forgo heating or cooling their homes in order to save money for food. Nearly one in three Americans faced extreme heat advisories and a surge of heat-related emergencies over the summer, forcing many to seek respite outside their homes. Sacramento, California’s capital, opened “cooling centers” in community centers and schools for residents as summer temperatures reached over 95 degrees for days on end. While 41 states have protections against utility shut-offs during extreme cold weather events, only 18 states have protections against utility shut-offs during a heat wave. Although hot states like Arizona have developed a permanent policy against summer shut-offs after a well-publicized death of an elderly resident in 2018, other hot states like Florida have no heat protections at all.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 2.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Closes August a Bit Mixed - U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed mixed comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Aug. 27. Aug. 21-27, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 65.0% (-2.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $147.16 (+15.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $95.62 (+12.1%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked seasonally and will now decline into the Fall.

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $6.1 Trillion in Q2 - The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2022 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $143.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2022. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $7.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.4 trillion...Household debt increased 7.4 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2022. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 8.5 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 8.8 percent. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. Net worth as a percent of GDP is down from the all-time high in Q4.This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.In Q2 2022, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 70.5% - up from 70.1% in Q1, 2022. This is the highest percent equity since the early 1980s. Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $263 billion in Q2.Mortgage debt is up $1.46 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 48.9% - up slightly from Q1 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased in Q2, and is well above the average of the last 30 years.

Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Slows As New Auto Loans Stumble On Soaring Rates - One month after the 2nd biggest monthly increase in consumer credit in US history, which in turn was just two months after the biggest surge in credit card and student/auto loans on record, in July the growth in consumer credit unexpectedly slowed to just $23.8 billion, down sharply from $39.1 billion in June, and the second lowest monthly increase of the year... ... not to mention the biggest miss to consensus expectations ($32 billion for July) since January. And while the slowdown was partially the result of some $10.9 billion in revolving credit in June, which actually is not that bad at all, and was one of the highest monthly increases on record, and the 4th highest of 2022... ... the big surprise was the sudden slowdown in non-revolving credit growth, which was cut in half from $24 billion in June - one of the highest on record - to just $12.9 billion, the lowest since January. And while we will have to wait until the next month to get the breakdown of student vs auto loans that make up the non-revolving total, it is almost certain that in July we saw the first direct impact of soaring interest rates on auto (and to a lesser extent college) loans, which are suddenly becoming prohibitively expensive. A few more months of this collapse in demand and the impact on the US auto sector could be dire, but at least new and used car prices will plunge allowing the Fed to start hinting at the coming pivot and making the rich richer all over again... 0

Merchant code for firearms sales gets a green light - A new code identifying credit card sales of guns and ammunition has been approved by the International Standards Organization, creating a potential path for card networks to help law enforcement agencies identify suspicious sales of guns and ammunition. The move comes after three years of research and advocacy by New York-based Amalgamated Bank, working with Guns Down America, Giffords Law Center and other groups to find ways to counter gun violence without impeding legal gun sales, Amalgamated Bank said Friday in a statement. Merchant category codes (MCCs) generally identify the type of merchandise a store sells, but they don't specify individual products a customer is buying. So the move could have limited effect in pinpointing individual weapon purchases, observers say.

Inflation Now Causing Hardship For Majority In US: Gallup - A majority of Americans, 56%, now say price increases are causing financial hardship for their household, up from 49% in January and 45% in November. The latest reading includes 12% who describe the hardship as severe and 44% as moderate. The results are based on an Aug. 1-22 web survey that interviewed over 1,500 members of Gallup's probability-based panel. Although more Americans now than last fall say they are experiencing hardship, the percentage who are suffering severe hardship has held relatively steady at around 10%. Lower-income Americans are more likely than others to be experiencing severe hardship -- 26% of those whose annual household income is less than $48,000 say prices are causing severe hardship for their families. That compares with 12% of middle-income Americans and 4% of upper-income Americans. Lower-income Americans are about as likely now as last fall to say they are experiencing either severe or moderate hardship -- 74%, compared with 70% in November. Middle-income (63%) and upper-income (40%) Americans remain significantly less likely than lower-income Americans to say they are experiencing hardship. However, sharply more middle- and upper-income Americans are struggling now than were last November. The increase has been greater among middle-income Americans -- up 17 percentage points -- than among upper-income Americans -- up 12 points. Reports of financial hardship also differ by partisanship. Republicans (67%) are far more likely than Democrats (44%) to say rising prices are hurting their families. Independents fall between the party groups, at 56%. These party differences are consistent with Republicans' being more likely to mention inflation as the most important problem and to rate the economy more negatively than Democrats and independents do, likely because of the presence of a Democratic president in the White House.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in July; Exports at Record High (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in July as exports hit a record high, a trend that could see trade continuing to contribute to gross domestic product in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that the trade deficit declined 12.6% to $70.6 billion. Exports of goods and services edged up 0.2% to $259.3 billion, while imports fell 2.9% to $329.9 billion. Trade added 1.42 percentage points to GDP in the second quarter, despite an overall contraction in economic activity, after being a drag for seven straight quarters.

AAR: August Rail Carloads Up Year-over-year, Intermodal Down - From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. . If you were expecting August rail traffic to provide a definitive statement regarding the state of the economy, well, get used to disappointment. As in June and July, rail traffic in August was relatively evenly balanced between categories with carload gains and those with declines.This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022: U.S. railroads originated an average of 237,978 total carloads per week in August 2022. That’s the best weekly average for any month since May 2021 and up 2.3% over August 2021. The 2.3% gain was the biggest year-over-year gain since February 2022 (which isn’t a fair comparison because rail traffic in February 2021 was decimated by severe winter storms).The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers): Intermodal originations (which are not included in carloads) averaged 267,124 units per week in August 2022, down 1.2% from August 2021. August was the 12th decline in the past 13 months (February 2022 was the exception) but 1.2% is the smallest percentage decline in those 13 months. The weekly average in August 2022 was the third highest in the eight months so far this year. For the year to date through August, intermodal was down 5.1% from last year’s record, up 7.4% over 2020, and down 0.9% from 2019.

ISM® Services Index Increased to 56.9% in August The ISM® Services index was at 56.9%, up from 56.7% last month. The employment index increased to 50.2%, from 49.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 56.9% August 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business® “In August, the Services PMI® registered 56.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than July’s reading of 56.7 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 60.9 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the reading of 59.9 percent in July. The New Orders Index figure of 61.8 percent is 1.9 percentage points higher than the July reading of 59.9 percent.” This was above expectations.

 ISM Services Report: Incremental Growth in August - The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the August Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 56.9 percent and is up 0.2 from 56.7 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 55.1 percent. Here is the report summary: — Economic activity in the services sector grew in August for the 27th month in a row — with the Services PMI^®registering 56.9 percent — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. “In August, the Services PMI^® registered 56.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than July’s reading of 56.7 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 60.9 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the reading of 59.9 percent in July. The New Orders Index figure of 61.8 percent is 1.9 percentage points higher than the July reading of 59.9 percent.“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.5 percent, 3.3 percentage points lower than the 57.8 percent reported in July. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)“The Prices Index decreased for the fourth consecutive month in August, down 0.8 percentage point to 71.5 percent. Despite an improvement in inventory levels, services businesses still continue to struggle to replenish their stocks, as the Inventories Index contracted for the third consecutive month; the reading of 46.2 percent is up 1.2 percentage points from July’s figure of 45 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (47.1 percent, down 3 percentage points from July’s reading of 50.1 percent) moved back into contraction territory in August.”Nieves continues, “According to the Services PMI^®, 14 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 27th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues — at a slightly faster rate — for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 151 months. The services sector had a slight uptick in growth for the month of August due to increases in business activity, new orders and employment. Based on comments from Business Survey Committee respondents, there are some supply chain, logistics and cost improvements; however, material shortages remain a challenge. Employment improved slightly despite a restricted labor market.” [Source] Unlike its much older kin, the ISM Manufacturing Series, there is relatively little history for ISM's Non-Manufacturing data, especially for the headline Composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows the Non-Manufacturing Composite.

How electric vehicle manufacturing could shrink the Midwestern job market - The race to build electric vehicles in the U.S. is heating up as fresh rounds of investment come out of Washington. Workers at the former heart of the auto industry fear being left behind."When we look carefully at what goes on on the factory floor, it won't be less workers," Keith Cooley, former head of Michigan's Labor Department, told CNBC. "There will be different people building the cars."Researchers believe modern factory jobs will require more education and could be less available than they were in the past. They estimate that electric vehicles could require 30% less manufacturing labor when compared with conventional cars. "The lines that run to drive oil or gas around an internal combustion engine aren't going to be there," said Cooley.This change could hit the parts suppliers in the auto industry, many of whom are concentrated near Midwestern cities such as Kokomo, Indiana; Lima, Ohio; and Detroit, Michigan."Car companies in some of these places actually make up a decent proportion of the tax revenue, and they employ many people within the surrounding community," Sanya Carley, an Indiana University professor and contributor to the Industrial Heartland study, told CNBC. "So the fate of these companies is very intimately tied to the fate of the communities."Leaders in Washington hope two key pieces of legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, which were signed into law by President Joe Biden in August, will provide a bridge to that future. These laws authorize billions in incentives for businesses that pursue clean energy manufacturing. With funding in the pipeline, automakers are now wondering how quickly demand for electric vehicles will materialize. In 2021, 9% of global auto sales were of electric vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency.Watch the video to learn more about how the electric vehicle revolution will impact the economies of states across the U.S. Midwest.

Long COVID and the working class: Brookings Institution report finds millions have left the labor force - A Brookings Institution report published on August 24, 2022, estimated that in the United States alone a staggering two to four million working-age adults have left the labor force due to Long COVID, also known as Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). The annual impact on lost wages has been placed at around $200 billion, or 1 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.The latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report found that there are 10.7 million unfilled positions, meaning Long COVID is responsible for as much as one-third of these vacancies. With the pandemic continuing to rage, the BLS wrote, “These impacts stand to worsen over time if the US does not take the necessary policy actions.”In partnership with the National Center for Health Statistics, the Census Bureau recently estimated that around 16 million working-age Americans (18 to 65) have Long COVID, or about 8 percent of the total.The Brookings Institution examined three reports to arrive at the number of workers who have left the workforce due as a consequence of their infection.The first is from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, which recently conducted a survey that found almost one-quarter of people who contracted COVID-19 experienced symptoms for three months or more. Based on the official estimates of how many have been infected with COVID, this would mean that roughly 34 million working-age Americans have had Long COVID. Half of the respondents in the Minneapolis survey reported they had recovered from Long COVID, which leaves 17 million still affected, roughly confirming the Census Bureau’s estimate.As for who among this group has left the labor market, the Minneapolis study reported that almost 26 percent had either reduced working hours (at least 10 hours a week on a 40-hour week basis) or quit altogether.These estimates were echoed by a survey from the British Trades Union Congress (TUC) that 20 percent of people with Long COVID were no longer working while another 16 percent said they were working fewer hours.A third study was cited from The Lancet on an international cohort found that 22 percent of Long COVID victims could no longer work due to poor health, and another 45 percent had to reduce their hours.Finally, given that three-quarters of working-age adults are active in the labor market (or around 12 million of the 16-17 million with Long COVID), Brookings estimated that two to four million full-time equivalent workers are out of the labor force due to Long COVID. The range of the figure suggests that almost 2 percent of the labor force has been disabled. This estimate has been substantiated by the Bank of England, which recently noted that labor force participation had dropped by 1.3 percent in the UK due to “long-term sickness,” i.e., Long COVID.

Summer Teen Employment -Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time. The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (6 to 19 years old) since 1948.The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer. A few observations:
1) Although teen employment has recovered some since the great recession, overall teen employment had been trending down. This is probably because more people are staying in school (a long term positive for the economy).
2) Teen employment was significantly impacted in 2020 by the pandemic.
3) A smaller percentage of teenagers are obtaining summer employment. The seasonal spikes are smaller than in previous decades.
The teen employment-population ratio was 36.5% in August 2022, up from 34.7% in August 2021. The teen participation rate was 40.6% in August 2022, up from 38.9% the previous July. In general, a smaller percentage of teenagers are joining the labor force during the summer as compared to previous years. This could be because of fewer employment opportunities, or because teenagers are pursuing other activities during the summer.
3) The decline in teenager participation is one of the reasons the overall participation rate has declined (of course, the retiring baby boomers is the main reason the overall participation rate has declined over the last 20+ years).

The Jobs With The Most Psychopaths - Have you ever experienced the feeling at work that everyone around you is unstable? That you're the only level-headed worker in a workplace populated by colleagues whose fits and outbursts are unpredictable, or even psychopathic? The experience might be common to many workers, but according to a recent book, The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success, certain fields are more likely to attract actual psychopaths than others. The book by Oxford psychologist Kevin Dutton argues that "a number of psychopathic attributes [are] actually more common in business leaders than in so-called disturbed criminals -- attributes such as superficial charm, egocentricity, persuasiveness, lack of empathy, independence, and focus."---- In a post about the book, author and Huffington Post blogger Eric Barker says that professions with high rates of psychopaths "offer power and many require an ability to make objective, clinical decisions divorced from feelings." Conversely, those fields with relatively few psychopaths "require human connection, dealing with feelings and most of them don't offer much power."So what were the kinds of jobs most likely to attract psychopaths, and those least likely? Highest Rates of Psychopathy:
1. CEO
2. Lawyer
3. Media (Television/Radio)
4. Salesperson
5. Surgeon
6. Journalist
7. Police Officer
8. Clergy person
9. Chef
10. Civil Servant
Lowest Rates of Psychopathy:
1. Care Aide
2. Nurse
3. Therapist
4. Craftsperson
5. Beautician/Stylist
6. Charity Worker
7. Teacher
8. Creative Artist
9. Doctor
10. Accountant

 Tying minimum-wage increases to inflation, as 12 states do, will lift up low-wage workers and their families across the country --EPI Blog --12 states and the District of Columbia have policies that increase (or index) their state’s minimum wage based on inflation. Most of those indexed increases are based on the August-to-August change in the Consumer Price Index, which will be announced sometime in mid-September. With inflation higher than it has been in recent years, the indexed inflation increases in these states will be higher than usual as well. Still, these indexed increases are similar in size to other legislated minimum wage increases in recent years and they will help reduce the burden of rising prices for low-wage workers and their families. The federal minimum wage has remained at $7.25/hour for the past fifteen years. Since then, its purchasing power or real value has dropped by 27% because of increases in the cost of living. As a result, the value of the minimum wage is the lowest since 1956. In response, thirty states, Washington D.C., and dozens of local governments have introduced their own minimum wages that are higher than the federal minimum wage. Workers in many of those states still experience the same problem – if the state doesn’t raise its minimum wage on a regular basis, its value will decline. This challenge is particularly acute right now as inflation is rising faster than worker wages. While EPI’sNominal Wage Tracker shows wages are growing faster now than before the beginning of the pandemic, median real wages from February, 2020 to June, 2022 are down 1.1%.1 As food and energy prices continue to rise at double-digit levels, workers’ wages, in real terms, have declined. Some state and local governments and the District of Columbia have opted to address this challenge by setting up automatic increases in the minimum wage indexed to the rate of inflation. This means that as prices rise, so do the wages of the lowest-paid workers:

The D.C. area is grateful for the migrants Texas is sending - Gratitude might not be the reaction Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was expecting when he began sending frequent busloads of migrants and asylum seekers to the greater D.C. area. But gratitude, warmth and a renewed sense of collective responsibility are the responses I have seen as D.C.-area organizations and faith communities (and, most recently, its government) step up to welcome and support newcomers. have stepped up to welcome and support newcomers. With Abbott’s bus initiative — a costly venture likely to be funded in large part by Texas taxpayers — we’ve seen an apparent strategy to inflict maximum pain on our region and score political points, using vulnerable people as weapons aimed at pressuring the Biden administration into taking more drastic measures to seal our nation’s southern border.But, despite the deeply cynical nature of Abbott’s plans, we might actually owe him a debt of gratitude.We know that providing transportation is one part of establishing a dignified reception system for people seeking safety, and we’ve witnessed repeatedly the long-term payoffs to our communities and nation when we offer support to those in need of refuge.The D.C. area has been generous in welcoming migrants fleeing persecution. With community and government support, Virginia has been the third-highest recipient of recent Afghan refugees to the United States, and Maryland is not far behind. My own synagogue and the church and mosque with whom we share our building have been active in helping welcome Afghan refugees to the area since 2017. The Jewish-Muslim community organization I help to direct has been working to get other interfaith partnerships involved in similar efforts.Afghan arrivals are not the only ones receiving a warm reception. With the help of some heroic community and faith groups — many of which are part of the Migrant Solidarity Mutual Aid Network — our area has mobilized quickly to welcome the migrants being bused here from the southern border. These tremendous efforts have demonstrated, yet again, the area’s commitment to extending welcome and hospitality to those in need.As with the public-private, multisector approach used in Afghan and other refugee resettlements, we need all hands on deck to welcome new arrivals to the area. We need as many available resources as possible, including the support of local, state and federal governments, faith groups, nonprofit organizations and community volunteers.It is heartening to see D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) now stepping up to the challenge and opportunity posed by the arriving migrants. On Thursday, she announced the establishment of an Office of Migrant Services, with an initial allocation of $10 million, to meet the needs of the migrants who are moving elsewhere or intending to reside here. As an official “Welcoming City,” D.C. government assistance should be an essential element of the response to welcome migrants to our region — especially considering that, as a majority of the D.C. Council has told Bowser, D.C. is expected to have a surplus of around $500 million in fiscal 2022 — even though D.C. has good reason to request Federal Emergency Management Agency reimbursement to help satisfy the overriding federal responsibility over immigration matters.

Dozens of artifacts seized from the Metropolitan Museum of Art - Dozens of ancient artifacts investigators believe were looted have been seized from the New York Metropolitan Museum of Art, according to the Manhattan District Attorney's Office. The office seized 27 artifacts from the Met using three search warrants. They will be repatriated to their countries of origin, a spokesperson for District Attorney Alvin Bragg told CNN. "We have two repatriation ceremonies next week, one with Italy and one with Egypt," the spokesperson told CNN. "Fifty-eight objects will go back to Italy, 21 from the Met. Sixteen to Egypt, six from the Met." Bragg's office did not detail where the other artifacts were seized from, nor did it describe the artifacts seized. Returning looted artifacts will finally restore heritage to the brilliant cultures that made them "It should be no secret to collectors, art museums and auction houses that they may be in possession of pieces from known traffickers that were illegally looted," Bragg said. "The investigations conducted by my office have clearly exposed these networks and put into the public domain a wealth of information the art world can proactively use to return antiquities to where they rightfully belong." "Our investigations, which have led to the repatriation of nearly 2,000 objects, will continue," he added.

Maryland County To Enforce Youth Curfew After "Armed And Dangerous Children" Spark Murderous Month - A county in Maryland near Washington, D.C., just recorded the deadliest month in decades. Local government officials are fed up with the surge in violent crime and announced a curfew for young people, which will last for a month, according to The Washington Times. Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks held a press conference Monday about the new curfew would begin next weekend and last for 30 days. Anyone under 17 will be forbidden from public areas between 10 pm and 5 am on weeknights unless escorted by a parent. On weekends the curfew begins at midnight and will be enforced by police. Alsobrooks' announcement comes as county police investigated 24 killings in August alone, a record high. She said an "eye-popping" 430 arrests of juveniles this year is a doubling of last year's figures -- adding a lot of violent crime is being committed by young people. "At this point, these kids don't just need a hug, they need to be held accountable," Alsobrooks said. "I know it's not a popular thing to say, but it's a fair question: Where are their parents? Where are the aunties, where are the uncles and other family members who are responsible for them?" She warned there'd been a dangerous spike in carjackings by "armed and dangerous children," calling it a severe problem. The last time a youth curfew was implemented in the county was in 1995. Punishments for parents are fines up to $250. Prince George's County Police Chief Malik Aziz said the number of juveniles being repeatedly arrested is "deeply troubling."

 Religious Lobbying Group Helped Write Ohio Bill That Would Use Public School Funds for Private Schools - An Ohio bill that would send public education money to private schools if a student chooses to attend one was written with help from religious lobbying group the Center for Christian Virtue and a think tank that promotes charter schools. Ohio House Bill 290 — colloquially referred to as the “Backpack Bill” — would allow “families to choose the option for all computed funding amounts associated with students’ education to follow them to the public and nonpublic schools they attend.” HB 290 creates a voucher system in which state dollars follow students even if they begin attending private, religious, or charter schools. The Center for Christian Virtue’s (CCV) support of HB 290 has been well known, with CCV President Aaron Baer speaking at a press conference for the bill last October. The Columbus Dispatch has reported frequently on both CCV and Baer, who has lobbied against bills and actions that support LGBTQ+ rights. Documents obtained by the Ohio Capital Journal through a public records request reveal CCV’s involvement in HB 290 has been more extensive than previously known, and included the advice and promotion of outside groups like Heritage Action and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). This past February, a legislative aide for McClain emailed a draft of the bill to CCV legislative liaison Nilani Jawahar and CCV lobbyist and Ohio Christian Education Network Assistant Director Corrine Vidales, records show. Also included in the recipients were John’s legislative aide, and legislative and legal affairs staffers for Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague. In the email sent on Feb. 8, 2022, McClain’s then-aide says she submitted the document “for your review” and asks they let her know if “there are any additional thoughts or comments I can pass along to LSC” — the nonpartisan Legislative Services Commission that assists lawmakers with the technical drafting of legislation. “Thanks for forwarding this,” responded CCV-affiliated Ohio Christian Education Network Executive Director Troy Mclintosh the next day. “I think this accurately reflects the discussion we had.” When Mclintosh asked if McClain and John are drafting a sub bill with phased-in eligibility for private school students, the aide answered saying, “I can have another version drafted with the phase in,” and asked for “examples or guidance in terms of what I should instruct LSC to do.” CCV’s guidance didn’t end there. In an email from Feb. 14, Vidales summarized talking points for McClain and John ahead of their Feb. 15 testimony before the Ohio House Finance Committee. “Not funding private schools, we are funding families,” Vidales said. “If you think it’s defunding public schools, why? If parents have the option to leave, will they? Accountability- if a private school fails, families can leave. Public schools don’t have this.” Vidales also sent emails sharing numbers on pandemic learning “in advance of our strategy call today,” and an attachment of CCV counterarguments against claims in a lawsuit in Franklin County Common Pleas Court against Ohio’s private school funding program that was brought by the Ohio Coalition for Equity & Adequacy of School Funding, a group of 100 public school districts. Vidales said McIntosh would be following up with studies about parent satisfaction, which he later did. Both studies were created by EdChoice, an Indiana-based think tank that advocates for school choice. Ohio’s private school voucher program is also called EdChoice…

 Why one-size-fits-all metrics for evaluating schools must go - These days, accountability means metrics. We are a nation obsessed with lists and rankings, and not just for dishwashers and other consumer products. We track our steps, rate our sleep, and go to hospitals with the “best ratings.”In the world of education, school leaders in a few lucky towns can proudly announce that their school has been “ranked as the best in the state” by U.S. News & World Report. But for most of the other 91,328 public school communities in the United States, falling lower in the rankings can be a source of shame and chagrin — even if educators are providing students with the most excellent education possible.In education, it’s not just committed, creative public school teachers who complain they are being punished by quantitative accountability schemes. Law schools live and die by rankings based on metrics that may not match their mission or capture how well they serve their students and the public good. When they cater to underrepresented students or focus on public interest law, they may fall in the rankings despite accomplishing their goals. Professors may try to write in ways that will boost the number of “likes” on Twitter, even if no one actually reads their work.In public schools, poor test scores can result in school closure, lowerhome values, and teacher layoffs. Trying to evaluate complex and varied institutions according to a universal metric that seems neutral and objective is a trend that has long alarmed experts, who warn that accountability measures can create perverse incentives.In our research, we find that, across institutions, school leaders are pressured to devote enormous time and energy to “improving the numbers,” even when this comes at the expense of making changes that, in private, they acknowledge would be far more impactful for students. Because rankings and other measures change how school leaders do their work and make decisions, current accountability policies have far-reaching implications for school discipline and student mental health at a moment of intense national crisis in child and youth well-being.Despite the problems of No Child Left Behind, the 2002 K-12 education law which punished schools with poor metrics, the use of performance metrics has spread. Schools are now evaluated by a series of quantifiable standards of success that now incorporate everything from test scores to school discipline. The State of Illinois illustrates the dilemma that many schools face. In Illinois, the State Board of Education created a single metric to capture a school’s use of problematic and racially biased discipline.This tactic may sound like an excellent solution to the pernicious problem of school pushout for students from racially minoritized backgrounds, and activists whom we admire fought hard for such measures. Yet, the metric is based on just three factors: the rate of out-of-school suspensions, out-of-school expulsions, and the differences in these rates for White students and students of color. Since its adoption in 2015, Illinois has ranked all public schools according to how they do on this one metric. Schools that fall within the top 20 percent are put on a highly publicized “bad” list and must submit plans to remediate the problem. Local news outlets are eager to report the results, often to the embarrassment and dismay of hard-working administrators.

D.C.'s Vaccine Mandate for Students Will Unravel a Decade of Progress. Mayor Bowser: Reconsider | Opinion - When the Council of the District of Columbia passed a COVID-19 vaccinationmandate for in-person learning, I along with many others was concerned about the negative impact this would have on the unvaccinated. I presumed that the legislation, passed in March, would be amended given updates in the CDC guidance issued in August. But it seems that the "no-learning" option is still on the table for D.C. students who aren't vaccinated.D.C.'s official position mandates that by January 2023, students 12 years and older be vaccinated against COVID-19 as a condition for returning to in-person learning, and there is no virtual learning option. Among the impacts of this policy, it will almost certainly broaden racial educational gaps, given that the vaccination rate for 12-to-17 year old Black students is under 60 percent.And this would be an absolute disaster.Educational achievement has been at the forefront of my mind for some time. I am the Executive Director of the Youth Leadership Foundation (YLF), a nonprofit with a mentoring and education service mission that deals with hundreds of families from areas of concentrated disadvantage each year. So I know firsthand how much effort, energy, and struggle has gone into trying to close this educational gap.So I was stunned to see D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser embrace a policy approach that so drastically conflicts with the needs of so many.If the current policy holds and near-universal compliance is not achieved by the time students return from winter break, a significant number of students and families will either continue to refuse vaccination and therefore be refused schooling, or they will capitulate despite persistent and significant reservations. Both of these options are alarming. Those who continue to refuse the vaccine will not even have an option of remote learning. They will be barred from learning. The costs are not limited to learning loss, either; students out of school experience further destabilized home environments, social isolation and its attendant mental health impacts, and the cascading negative outcomes of truancy. But parents who feel forced to vaccinate their kids against their wishes don't have it much better. Using "Do it or else!" tactics to reign in refractory students does not create lasting compliance. Rather, this approach calcifies oppositional attitudes. And it sends a chilling message to the rest of the group that they are valued not for their inherent human dignity but for their compliance. And it and robs the instructor and the organization of a learning opportunity.

Teachers unions, White House host town hall to demand in-person learning as school year starts - As tens of millions of children and educators return to school amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the two largest teachers unions in the United States co-hosted a town hall with the Biden administration. The purpose of September 1 event was to send the message that in-person learning will continue no matter what level of sickness transpires this fall. Only weeks into the new semester, schools have closed due to COVID-19 outbreaks in Louisiana, California, Kentucky and Oklahoma. Following the latest COVID-19 guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), virtually all public health measures have been abandoned in schools across the country, including quarantining, testing and contact tracing. Characterized by distortions and cynical omissions about school safety, the event demonstrated once again that the US political establishment and its pillars in the trade union bureaucracy are entirely united in the demand that schools remain in-person. The true meaning of the “partnership” between the trade unions and the “pro-union” Biden administration is for the former to serve the latter by keeping workers in line and on the job. The town hall was hosted by the National Education Association (NEA) and American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and featured NEA and AFT Presidents Becky Pringle and Randi Weingarten, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Ashish Jha, US Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona, US Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, and a recorded video by First Lady Jill Biden. The first segment of the question-and-answer-style event related to the ongoing dangers of COVID-19 and monkeypox in schools, which Jha and Walensky did their best to downplay while ignoring the horrific toll the pandemic has had on children and educators alike.

Texas attorney general threatens legal action against schools that try to mitigate the spread of COVID and monkeypox - As classes resume of for the 2022-2023 school year, the Texas state government sent menacing letters to public school districts throughout the state last week threatening to prosecute any school officials who attempt to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases like COVID and monkeypox. With the Democratic Party and the teachers’ unions fully backing the murderous “let it rip” COVID policy of the Biden administration, the most far-right and fascistic forces in the country, among them Texas governor Greg Abbott and his accomplices, feel they now have a free hand to carry out the most deranged and murderous provocations with impunity. Texas attorney general Ken Paxton’s letter cites an executive order signed by Abbott in July of last year. Among other provisions, the order stated: “No governmental entity, including a county, city, school district, and public health authority, and no government official may require any person to wear a face covering or to mandate that another person wear a face covering.” The order also mandated that no business may place restrictions on anyone related to COVID. The order further prevented any public or private entity receiving funds from the state to require a COVID vaccination, or to require documentation of vaccination status. Anyone not complying with the order is subject to a $1,000 fine. The order was originally in response to efforts by local officials in urban areas in Texas, the second most populous US state, to impose limited mitigation measures in defiance of the state government in the early stages of the pandemic. Lina Hidalgo, County Judge for Harris County, where Houston is located, had insisted on limited mitigation efforts, for which she was targeted by right-wing extremists. (In Texas, a county judge is the elected chief executive of a county.) Paxton’s letter is undisguised in its adversarial hostility towards public schools in general. Citing Abbott’s executive orders, Paxton warns against any efforts to challenge state policy in court, gloating that “all court orders purporting to stop the Governor’s orders have been blocked.” He states that Abbott’s executive orders have “the full force and effect of law, and supersede local regulations.” He ends the letter with the statement that “parents can send their children to public schools without worrying about new mask mandates.” In the face of the raging COVID-19 pandemic, now compounded with the unchecked spread of monkeypox, Paxton and Abbott are doing their best to ensure that more people, including children, will become infected. At the same time that they work to ensure that infectious diseases spread unchecked in schools, the Texas state government is actively dismantling any infrastructure for tracking COVID infections, in line with national efforts by the Biden administration and Democratic and Republican state governments around the country. At this point it is impossible to determine how many children have been infected with COVID in Texas this year, as public schools are no longer required to report that information. There will be no new data for the 2022-2023 school year. Paxton has already filed lawsuits against school districts that require students to wear masks. This includes districts serving students in Richardson, Round Rock, Galveston, Elgin, Spring, Sherman, Waco, and Paris. As of August 25, 118 cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in Travis County, which contains the capital of Austin. As of August 26, 427 cases have been confirmed in Houston, while Dallas County has 476 cases. Abbott and Paxton are fascistic figures, aligned with Trump’s January 6 coup attempt, who vie with other right-wing extremists such as Florida’s Ron Desantis for the national spotlight as they implement the most reactionary measures.

Strike of 6,000 Seattle Public Schools teachers looms as 3,000 teachers in neighboring Kent School District enter second week - Nearly 6,000 educators in Seattle Public Schools will be voting Monday to strike as schools are set to reopen the following day, Tuesday September 8. Like so many teachers across the US, Seattle teachers have endured over two years of a pandemic, facing constant risk of infection and death, as well as crippling workloads and stress, which has compounded an ongoing staffing crisis. Last year, staffing shortages due to COVID-19 infections led to canceling school days district-wide due to insufficient safe staffing levels. Now with schools scheduled to reopen Tuesday, none of these issues have been resolved. The current contract between the district and Seattle Education Association (SEA) expired on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. Teachers are calling for much needed improvements, including more supports for student needs, sustainable workloads, and increased pay. Teachers have been most vocal about the district’s attempt to significantly cut staffing ratios for special education and multilingual students, who require specialized attention to succeed. The looming strike of Seattle teachers takes place as nearly 2,000 teachers in the neighboring Kent Public School District enter the second week of their indefinite strike. Kent teachers are currently fighting over similar issues, including increased mental health options for students, smaller class sizes and caseloads for teachers. The district has proposed a measly 6.3 percent raise over the course of the year and a one-time $1,000 bonus. Such an “increase” is in reality a real cut to wages as inflation is currently 8.5 percent. No proposals from the district nor the Kent Education Association (KEA) include major funds needed for Kent teachers and students. Seattle teachers are also demanding that COVID-19 safety protocols be addressed by the district. However, the district’s latest proposal includes no mention of specific safety protocols, outside of what the Department of Health (DOH) recommends, which is vague and bare bones. For their part, the SEA is only calling for the current status quo on COVID-19 safety measures. At the insistence of the Biden Administration and with full support of the National Education Association (NEA)—the parent organization of the SEA—and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), Seattle Public Schools, like virtually every other district nationwide, has dropped all measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. It is in the economic interests of the Biden administration and the AFT to keep kids in school, without safety measures in place, so that their parents can go to work, to continue producing profits for the financial elite, regardless of risk to workers’ lives and their families. Already as schools are opening throughout the country, new surges of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths are being reported. Vaccination rates amongst children are remarkably low. The latest numbers from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) show only 30.3 percent of kids ages 5-11 and 60.2 percent of kids ages 12-17 are fully vaccinated. Additionally, monkeypox is on the rise in America with nearly 20,000 cases nationwide, and widespread prevention through vaccination isn’t yet available to children.

"I can't afford to live in the district I work in": 6,000 Seattle teachers and support staff strike, cancelling first day of school -- Six thousand teachers and support staff in Seattle, Washington began a strike this morning, cancelling the first day of classes for 50,000 students in the state’s largest school district. The walkout followed a 95 percent vote by teachers, paraprofessionals and office workers to authorize strike action. The Seattle Education Association (SEA) did everything it could to reach a last-minute deal but was unable to prevent a strike. Union officials have pledged to continue talks to reach an agreement to bring teachers “back to the classrooms as fast as possible.” The union also dropped its initial opposition to the district’s demands for the intervention of a mediator. Teachers are demanding sharp increases in salaries and benefits to keep up with inflation, reduced class sizes, more school resources and better COVID-19 protections for staff and students alike. Like teachers across the country, Seattle Public School teachers are working under conditions of severe understaffing, low pay in the face of surging living expenses, the near-total absence of COVID-19 protection measures, and lack of mental health resources for students. The highlight of the current proposal between the district and the union is a wage increase of 5.5 percent, well below the current inflation rate of 8.5 percent. There is also no concrete cap on class sizes in general, merely a vague proposal by the SEA that “caps class sizes for secondary non-core classes to bring parity with core classes.” A SPS math teacher told the WSWS, “We’re 90 students over what we are budgeted for at my school. Today alone we got seven new students, and I just spoke to a teacher at a middle school and they’re over enrolled as well. So we’re understaffed, we don’t have the resources we need to support every student. And SPS makes enrollment decisions too late, like October, when it’s too late to hire somebody. “We are expecting 35 students per class,” she continued, “and that’s way too large for us to be able to meet all their learning needs. We have a lot of neurodivergent students; I think 45 percent of our students have an Individualized Education Program (IEP). We don’t have the staff that we need to really support everybody that needs the support. “I started in 2018, when I moved back to Seattle. I was displaced in October, moved from one school to another school, even though I was given a special contract where I was supposed to be able to choose where I wanted to go. I had built relationships with students that had already been established. And then I had to go to a whole new school and start over, which is just not conducive to what students need. “I can’t afford to live in the district I work in. My kid will not be able to go to the schools that I teach at. “Regarding COVID safety, I think my biggest complaint was that they ended the mask mandate midway through the year. I’m pregnant and I got COVID from an unmasked student and it totally changes the rest of the pregnancy.”

UC Berkeley to require, but not enforce, indoor masks for students who decline flu vaccine -- UC Berkeley will again require students and employees who choose not to get vaccinated against influenza to mask up indoors during the upcoming flu season, a rule that has been in place since 2020 but led to outcry last week from critics of vaccines, masks and mandates relating to either.The university has not broadly communicated the requirement and says it does not have an enforcement mechanism to ensure students are either vaccinated or masked. “We aren’t verifying people’s records,” said Tami Cate, a UC Berkeley spokesperson. “It’s a self-attestation.”Critics seized on the rule after conservative websites reported on it, with some noting the university does not require masks indoors for those not immunized against COVID-19.The larger University of California system requires that students and employees be vaccinated against the flu, just as it does with COVID-19, but allows people to opt out. UC Berkeley goes further by requiring indoor masking for those who opt out of the flu vaccine.On Thursday, the UC president’s office consolidated its existing vaccination policies into a single document. The policy makes no changes to existing rules, which let campuses set their own mask requirements. That’s what UC Berkeley did in 2020. This year, students and employees have until Dec. 1 to get vaccinated or start wearing a mask indoors, Cate said.The UC’s flu vaccine requirement cites studies showing the efficacy of the vaccine, and says the flu vaccine is more crucial during the COVID-19 pandemic.“As California has lifted COVID-19 restrictions, outbreaks have followed and the possibility of a surge that overwhelms the health care system and causes hospitals to adopt crisis standards of care necessarily increases,” the policy states. “Population-level interventions ... must therefore be considered and adopted where feasible.”

The most-regretted (and lowest-paying) college majors - Nearly 2 in 5 American college graduates have major regrets. That is, they regret their major. The regretters include a healthy population of liberal arts majors, who may be responding to pervasive social cues. When he delivered his 2011 State of the Union address in the shadow of the Great Recession, former president Barack Obama plugged math and science education and called on Americans to “out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world.” Since then, the number of new graduates in the arts and humanities has plunged. Meanwhile, nearly half of humanities and arts majors have studier’s remorse as of 2021. Engineering majors have the fewest regrets: Just 24 percent wish they’d chosen something different, according to a Federal Reserve survey. As a rule, those who studied STEM subjects — science, technology, engineering and mathematics — are much more likely to believe they made the right choice, while those in social sciences or vocational courses second-guess themselves. There doesn’t seem to be much relationship between loans, gender, race or school selectivity and your regrets. Though, as you may have guessed, our analysis of Fed data shows that the higher your income is today, the less you regret the major you chose back in college. Regrets have remained relatively steady since 2016, the earliest year for which we have consistent data. The most notable exception, education, went from below-average regrets before the pandemic to above-average regrets in 2021. Life sciences, on the other hand, have seen a steady and substantial decline in regret. The annual Fed’s Survey of Household Economics and Decision-making also asks if folks regret the specific school they went to. Those in vocational programs are most likely to regret their school, while education majors are least likely. Regardless of major, half of those who went to private, for-profit schools regret their decision, perhaps because students at for-profit schools are much more likely to struggle to repay their student debt. Similar regrets plague only 21 percent of those who went to public colleges and universities and 30 percent of those who attended private nonprofits. A substantial majority of vocational and technical students (60 percent) wish they’d gone for more schooling, while less than 40 percent of law, life science and engineering students believe the same. The burgeoning regret among humanities and arts majors may help explain why humanities graduates are a dying breed. “There’s a pretty significant change underway,” historian and digital humanist Ben Schmidt said. “The numbers have dropped by 50 percent, and there’s no sign that they’re going to rebound.” By 2021, disciplines such as history, English and religion graduated less than half as many students as they did in their early 2000s heyday, relative to the overall size of the graduating student body, according to Schmidt’s analysis of data from the National Center for Education Statistics.In the decade since our national pivot to STEM, the number of people graduating with computer science degrees has doubled. Every STEM field notched significant gains. Nursing, exercise science, medicine, environment, engineering, and math and statistics are all up by at least 50 percent. Among the humanities, only two increased: cultural, ethnic and gender studies, and linguistics.

Now Let's Make College Free - After much anticipation, the Biden-Harris administration recently announced that college-student borrowers will have up to $20,000 of their student debt forgiven. Student-debt forgiveness is an important first step in addressing societalinequities caused in part by structural barriers to wealth-accumulation, labor-market discrimination, and the predatory practices of many private, for-profit colleges. Now, we have to make sure no one is crushed by student debt in the first place.We must reinvest in public higher education.The benefits of higher education are well documented. Higher levels of education lead to better jobs, healthier lives, a stronger economy, and a more civically-engaged society. But we are poised to miss out on many of these benefits, both individually and collectively. In the last few years, we have seen precipitous drops in college enrollment. These declines are especially pronounced at community colleges, which mostly serve low-income students. This is a warning sign that inequities in educational opportunity could grow. Even worse, higher education is about to get more costly, which could further restrict access for students with the greatest financial need. Fitch, a credit ratings agency, projects that tuition is set to increase as inflation strains college budgets. This means even more students will have to choose between skipping out on college or taking on burdensome debt.It is time to make college free. Research shows that free-college programs increase college enrollment, especially among students who have been historically underserved in higher education. To be sure, financial aid that is targeted to those who need it the most seems more economically efficient than making college free for all. But free-college programs have much larger effects on college enrollment than other forms of financial aid or reductions in college tuition alone. This is partly because the simple and straighforward "free college" message is a strong motivator to attend college, especially for those who don't otherwise think they can afford it.Because of its effectiveness, making college free is a public investment that would pay for itself. We can start by making community college free, which is less costly than including four-year universities. Free community college would also channel public dollars to institutions that serve all students, regardless of their backgrounds. While there is some concern that free community college could steer students away from four-year colleges, which have better outcomes on average, we have evidence that making community college free can increase not just associate's degree completion but also transfer to a four-year university and bachelor's degree attainment. What's more, increases in these outcomes appear larger for Hispanic and Native American students. This can happen when two-year colleges and four-year universities work together to improve transfer pathways for students who wish to continue their education.

The US should cancel a lot more than $10,000 in student debt — On paper, US President Joe Biden’s student debt cancellation plan looks pretty good.The government will forgive $10,000 worth of student debt for those making under $125,000. That’s nearly a third of the average amount owed by student debt holders.According to White House estimates, the policy wipes out the remaining balances for 20 million Americans—nearly half of all borrowers. This is great given that a third of them have student debt but no college degree, according to the Department of Education.But these overall numbers obscure one key downside of the plan: It will do little to help borrowers who need it the most, those who hold large amounts of debt and have low incomes.Though they only make up a small share of student loan holders, their plight is a result of everything that’s wrong with higher education. To address this, many loan reduction advocates were pushing the government to take into account racial disparities and offer more generous relief, said Fenaba Addo, an associate professor of public policy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.But could the economy handle any more debt forgiveness without increasing consumer demand and pouring fuel on the inflation fire, like some opponents of debt forgiveness opponents argue? Isn’t Biden’s plan like giving a $10,000 check to millions of Americans?Most of the 43 million student debt holders account for a small amount of the $1.6 trillion pie, with a small share of borrowers who owe more than $100,000—7%— accounting for nearly 40% of overall student debt, according to College Board data. The result: Biden’s policy gives a big number of people with small burdens a big reprieve, while it barely helps a smaller group of students with large balances.More than 8 million borrowers who are on income-driven repayment (IDR) plans, which are determined by the borrower’s discretionary income rather than the amount of student debt they hold, will experience little financial impact from the cancellation.If a borrower has a middle-class income of $60,000 and $40,000 in student debt, subtracting $10,000 from the balance won’t change their situation. They are still not on track to pay off their debt because their income is so low, making payments under an IDR plan means that the principal of the loan will continue to grow.While another plan from Biden will put 7.5 million student debt borrowers that are in default back in good standing, nearly a third of all student loan holders have experienced default in the past two decades. Within this group many borrowers have defaulted several times. Because the government likely doesn’t reclaim 100% of these loans, there’s a large portion of the $1.6 trillion overall outstanding amount that wouldn’t be paid even if it wasn’t forgiven.

Who would truly benefit from student loan forgiveness? Teachers. - Opponents of President Biden’s proposal for student loan forgivenesspaint a grim picture. They imagine privileged students picking pricey, elite universities and assuming mountains of debt, only to earn degrees with zero job prospects. When we forgive student loans, they argue, society pays the penalty for these individuals’ shortsightedness. Financial responsibility plummets. Universities keep pumping out low-value degrees. But pundits might want to consider debtholders who don’t match this narrative: teachers. In the education field, debt is often the price of entry. Nearly half of all teachers in pre-K-12 and higher education take on debt to finance their education. They do so not out of thoughtlessness but out of necessity. I earned my degree in education 23 years ago with funding from a Pell Grant. Pell recipients come overwhelmingly from families that earn$60,000 a year or less, and in 2015 more than 70 percent of Black students were recipients. Back then, I selected a small liberal arts school that made financial sense and that provided me with the degree and credentials I needed to teach. Yet I still had to borrow $23,000, the maximum allowable amount for federal undergraduate student loans. After college, some educators find it necessary to take on even more student debt. When I entered the classroom in 2000, teachers who didn’t have a bachelor’s degree in education were required to have a master’s in education — or to be pursuing one. Over the years, some states have required educators to earn a master’s degree within their first five or 10 years of teaching, or have offered salary incentives for them to do so. In other instances, teachers need an advanced degree to cover the bills, because teacher-pay tiers are based on education and years of experience.My first job, with Virginia’s Fairfax County Public Schools, offered a starting salary of $24,000. To make ends meet, I tacked on extra jobs, coaching in the afternoons and working nights and weekends at a local learning center.Even then, it was a financial struggle to provide for my family and pay back my student loans. I had to request a forbearance for several months when I simply wasn’t generating enough income. Often I had no discretionary funds left after paying my monthly bills and my loan payment. Now, Biden has proposed student loan forgiveness for people like my younger self, extending up to $20,000 in forgiveness for Pell Grant recipients and up to $10,000 for other borrowers. For those who go into teaching, it’s a proposal that seems long overdue.

Pandemic trauma caused many to lose their sense of time - The Washington Post - Did you lose track of time during the early days of the pandemic? If so, you’re not alone. A new study says a majority of Americans experienced time distortions at the beginning of the pandemic, which are common during traumatic times.Researchers say those who lost their time sense could be at greater risk for mental health disorders — such as depression and anxiety — and screening for time distortions could help get treatment to those who need it.In a study published in the journal Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy, researchers surveyed a nationally representative sample of 5,661 U.S. adults about their mental health in March-April and September-October 2020. Participants answered questions about their experiences with the coronavirus, their history of stressful life events, and their financial and life stressors related to the virus.When the participants were asked about their perception of time, over 65 percent reported distortions, even six months after the pandemic began. Over half said they felt time was speeding up or slowing down. About 46 percent reported that they were uncertain about what time or day it was, and 35 percent reported short-term memory problems.More women than men reported these distortions, and the same was true for people who had been exposed to trauma earlier in life. Higher media exposure was associated with distorted time perception, too.The pandemic was “an unprecedented, protracted collective trauma,” the researchers write. Though more research is needed, they conclude that time distortion is probably associated with mental health symptoms in the pandemic.

For the First Time, More U.S. Adults Are Smoking Weed Than Tobacco, Poll Shows - For the first time, more U.S. adults smoke pot than tobacco, according to a new Gallup poll on marijuana use.The poll, released earlier this month, revealed that 16% of respondents currently smoke weed, while just 11% said they had smoked a cigarette in the past week. According to the poll, 14% of respondents said they consume cannabis edibles.The percentage of people who said they smoke marijuana was the highest since Gallup began asking the question in 2013. Meanwhile, the number who said they puffed on a cigarette in the past week is the lowest since the company began asking the question in 1944. Also according to the poll, 68% of U.S. adults think cannabis should be legal for recreational use.

 We need to make sure our response to the opioid crisis benefits all people, not just white people - The opioid epidemic is still decimating communities. While white Americans in areas with lower levels of economic opportunity bore its brunt in the recent past, the epidemic’s impact across racial groups has changed again. Our history suggests a danger that this could negatively affect our perspective and response.Until recently, the story of the opioid epidemic has largely been about white Americans in areas with declining economic opportunity. The opioid overdose death rate for white people was at least twice as high than that of other racial and ethnic groups in the US through 2015.The story — connecting the high rates of overdose to lower levels of economic opportunity — became widely popularized through the work of Anne Case and Angus Deaton as “deaths of despair.” They sounded the alarm for the white working class specifically.Case and Deaton’s initial work focuses on the decrease in life expectancy and worsening health outcomes for middle-aged white people between 1999 and 2013. But, as Keturah James and Ayana Jordan point out in their work on the opioid epidemic in Black communities, opioid deaths among Black Americans nearly doubled during practically the same period (1999-2015). As they explain, “these deaths have been largely overlooked by the media, and non-white victims of the opioid epidemic are conspicuously absent from political discourse. To attribute this lack of discussion entirely to the low relative frequency of non-white deaths offers an incomplete explanation at best and a wholly inaccurate one at worst.”Furthermore, while white people have historically faced some of the highest rates of drug overdose deaths, in 2020 the trend changed. Drug overdose death rates across all demographic groups had been climbing, and then exploded during the pandemic. But between 2019-2020, the death rate increased by nearly 45 percentamong Black people, compared to an increase of 22 percent among white people and 21 percent among Hispanic people. In 2020, Black people experienced the highest opioid overdose death rate of any group (26.3 deaths per 100,000 people).Race and racism drive policy decisions and inform how we respond to public health crises. Because the focus of the (recent) opioid epidemic has been about white Americans, its response has differed from the responses to other substance use epidemics. Research has revealed how policymakers responded differently to the opioid epidemic and the crack-cocaine era, by introducing more public health, treatment-oriented policies during the former and more punitive criminal justice policies during the latter. This is reflective of the larger differences in the framing of the two epidemics. The opioid epidemic has been viewed as a structural problem, driven by economic and social factors, whereas individuals who struggled during the crack-cocaine epidemic were criminalized; drug use was viewed as an individual’s problem.The difference in the responses during different eras of the opioid epidemic says enough on its own. In addition to the ravaging effects of the opioid epidemic today, Black Americans were also devastated by an opioid epidemic, driven by heroin use, in the 1960s and 1970s. But, instead of being met with a public health-oriented response, victims were responded to with the Rockefeller Drug Laws, which criminalized drug possession, first in New York State, and later in other states that implemented similar legislation.

What is the risk of BA.5 infection among persons with documented infection with past variants? - A recent correspondence published in The New England Journal of Medicine discussed a study in which researchers assessed the infection risk for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron BA.5 subvariant in vaccinated people that have been exposed to previous SARS-CoV-2 variants.The study results indicate that among the vaccinated population, individuals with no documented infection were at a higher risk of BA.5 infection than those with the hybrid immunity provided by a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among the latter, persons infected with an older subvariant of Omicron (BA.1 or BA.2) faced a lower risk of BA.5 infection than those infected with one of the earlier variants such as Wuhan-Hu-1, Alpha, or Delta. The authors mention that this heightened immunity against BA.5 after a BA.1 or BA.2 infection could be due to the shorter interval between previous infection and BA.5 exposure.The efficacy of protection granted by a previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection against BA.5 was calculated to be 75.0% – 75.6%, comparable to the results from a similar study from Qatar. Even with confounders such as unreported infected individuals in the uninfected vaccinated population were taken into account, the risk of BA.5 infection in the previously uninfected group increased, consequently increasing the protection efficacy to 77%.Overall, the results suggest that the level of immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 subvariant varies based on a combination of factors such as vaccination status, previous infections with earlier variants, and how recent the previous infections have been. Moreover, immune evasion by the subvariants could be interlinked with immune waning, increasing the risk of infection.Studies have shown the Omicron variants to be better at evading humoral immunity than the previous SARS-CoV-2 variants. As the titer of neutralizing antibodies from previous infections decreases at a rate similar to the rate at which Omicron variants develop immune evasive abilities, the infection risk increases.On the whole, the results of the study are significant because they indicate that hybrid immunity provided by vaccinations and previous infections, especially with earlier subvariants of Omicron, significantly reduces the risk of reinfections with the Omicron BA.5 subvariant. This finding is especially relevant in the context of the adapted vaccines currently under clinical trial since most of those vaccines are based on the BA.1 subvariant.

Study: Previous COVID-19 infection offers protection against BA.5 - Infections with previous COVID-19 variants offer more protection against the Omicron BA.5 subvariant in vaccinated people compared with vaccinated people who had no previous infections, according to a New England Journal of Medicine study yesterday. The study was based on research conducted at the University of Lisbon in Portugal and is among the first studies to analyze protection against BA.5 among vaccinated and naturally infected people. The authors used the Portuguese national registry of COVID-19 cases to determine which variant likely caused infection based on date and variant predominance. Cases in patients age 12 and older were used.The researchers found that while natural infections from 2020 and 2021 (when the wild-type strain and the Delta variant were predominant) offered some protection against BA.5, people infected with the BA.1 and BA.2 variants, at the beginning of 2022, who were also vaccinated had four times the protection as those who were only vaccinated."This study demonstrates, in the period of time analysed, that previous infection in vaccinated people (the so-called hybrid immunity) continues to confer for the variants that are known for their ability to evade the immune response, such as the subvariant currently dominant," said Valter Fonseca, MD, PhD, co-author of the study, in a press release from the Instituto de Medicina Molecular at the University of Lisbon.The authors said their findings challenge the perception that protection afforded by previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection is very low."Our data indicate that this perception is probably a consequence of the larger pool of persons with BA.1 or BA.2 infection than with infection by other subvariants, and it is not supported by the data," they said.

CIDRAP: Low Testosterone In Men May Raise Risk Of COVID Hospitalization - Men with low testosterone levels and COVID-19 were more than twice as likely as men with normal concentrations to be hospitalized, but those treated with hormone replacement therapy weren't at elevated risk, suggests an observational study today inJAMA Network Open.A team led by St. Louis University and Washington University researchers analyzed the electronic health records of 723 adult male COVID-19 survivors with testosterone measurements from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2021. Most had COVID-19 in 2020, before vaccines were available.The men had their testosterone measured because they had symptoms of low testosterone (hypogonadism), which was defined as a concentration below 175 to 300 nanograms per deciliter (ng/dL), depending on the reference lab. Testosterone concentrations were measured a median of 7 months before COVID-19 infection in 73% of patients and a median of 6 months after recovery in 27%.Of the 723 participants, average age was 55 years, average body mass index was 33.5 kilograms per meter squared (obese), 16% had hypogonadism, 60% had normal testosterone levels (eugonadism), and 25% were receiving testosterone therapy.A total of 134 men were hospitalized with COVID-19, and these patients were older (average age, 62 vs 53 years), had more underlying medical conditions (median Charlson Cormorbidity Index [CCI] score, 2 vs 0), and were more likely to have immune suppression (19% vs 4%) than nonhospitalized men.Thirty-two men were receiving medication to lower their testosterone levels in an effort to impede the growth of their prostate cancer, and their median testosterone level was 3.5 ng/dL. Eighteen of them (56%) were admitted for COVID-19, and 3 (9%) required intensive care.In the unadjusted analysis, men diagnosed as having hypogonadism were 3.6 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than eugonadic men (52 of 116 [44.8%] vs 53 of 427 [12.4%]). But after adjusting for risk factors, the risk was 2.4 times higher in those with hypogonadism.Testosterone therapy recipients who still had low testosterone also were more likely to be hospitalized (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.5). But men receiving adequate testosterone therapy were at a similar risk of hospitalization as eugonadic men (OR, 1.3). After adjustment, relative to men with eugonadism, those with hypogonadism weren't at higher risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (9% vs 3%; OR, 1.2), ventilation (4% vs 2%), or death (4% vs 2%). Results were similar regardless of whether testosterone levels were measured before or after infection. There were no differences among the men with hypogonadism or eugonadism or those receiving testosterone therapy in median number of days in the hospital (6 vs 6 vs 8 days, respectively), in the ICU (6 vs 4 vs 14 days), or on a ventilator (14 vs 8 vs 12 days).

COVID: BA.5 boosters on the way, CDC data on hospitalizations, US life expectancy - An advisory panel to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended the boosters Thursday after members spent more than six hours reviewing data on the state of the pandemic and the new shots.CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky signed off on their recommendation shortly after. The Food and Drug Administration gave emergency authorization Wednesday to a "bivalent" vaccine that targets both the original virus and the BA.4 and BA.5 variants that now dominate the world. As requested by the companies, the Pfizer-BioNTech booster was authorized for anyone ages 12 and up, while Moderna's vaccine was authorized for adults only. Both were authorized for use at least two months after any previous COVID-19 shots.Although data on effectiveness remains incomplete, officials expect the more targeted booster will increase protection against severe disease and prevent milder infections for some period of time, as well as long COVID, which leads to lingering symptoms such as profound fatigue and brain fog. The companies said they are ready to ship the modified boosters this month. Pfizer has said it has the capacity to provide up to 15 million doses by Sept. 9 from its Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, production site.

CDC report: 44% of people hospitalized with COVID got third dose, booster - Nearly half of Americans hospitalized in the spring for COVID-19 were fully vaccinated and got a third dose or booster, according to a report by the CDC. Looking at hospitalization data from March 20 to May 31, when the omicron subvariant BA.2 was the dominant strain, researchers found 39.1% of patients received a primary vaccination series and at least one booster or additional dose, while 5% were fully vaccinated plus two boosters.The report, published last week in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, found hospitalization rates among people over 65 increased threefold over the study period as rates among people under 65 increased 1.7-fold. Despite the findings, study authors said rates among unvaccinated adults were still 3.4 times higher than those who were vaccinated.

37% of a group of Maryland preschoolers with COVID-19 had no symptoms - An 8-month COVID-19 screening study of 175 Maryland households with at least one child aged 0 to 4 years finds that 37% of preschoolers had no symptoms, suggesting that screening only symptomatic children may not be enough to prevent outbreaks in this age-group. A team led by Johns Hopkins University researchers analyzed weekly symptom questionnaires, self-collected nasal swabs, and sera from 690 participants in 175 Maryland households with one or more children younger than 5 years from Nov 24, 2020, to Oct 15, 2021. The study preceded the emergence of the more transmissible Omicron variant. Of the 690 participants, 51.4% were female, 37.1% were aged 0 to 4 years, 14.5% were 5 to 17, 48.4% were 18 to 74, 87.4% were White, 6.2% were multiracial, 4.8% were Hispanic, 3.5% were Black, 2.2% were Asian, and 0.7% were of other races. A total of 7.8% of all participants tested positive for COVID-19, including 22 of 256 children 0 to 4 years old (8.6%), 11 of 100 children aged 5 to 17 years (11.0%), and 21 of 334 adults (6.3%). Infection rates were 2.25 per 1,000 person-weeks among children younger than 5, 3.48 in the 5- to 17-year age-group, and 1.08 among adults. Children were asymptomatic more often than adults (11 of 30 [36.7%] vs 3 of 21 [14.3%]), with preschoolers having no symptoms at the same rate as older children (7 of 19 [36.8%]). Symptom status didn't correlate with viral load or age, but the number of symptoms was associated with viral load in adults. The highest viral load was greater among participants infected with a Delta variant than among those infected with Alpha or non-variants of concern (VOCs). Whole-household infection was rare. No fully vaccinated participants were infected with Alpha or non-VOCs, but six vaccinated and eight unvaccinated participants had Delta infections. "Although the implications of these findings for household transmission remain to be evaluated, they suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infection may be underrecognized and that symptoms may not reflect infectiousness in young children," the researchers concluded.

The effectiveness of nirmatrelvir in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes during the Omicron surge --In a recent study published in NEJM, researchers assessed the clinical efficacy of nirmatrelvir in preventing severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Israel during the Omicron wave. It is noteworthy that by the time severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) new variant of concern (VOC) Omicron emerged in Israel, their population had widespread SARS-CoV-2 immunity. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) recommends the oral protease inhibitor nirmatrelvir as the first line of treatment for non-hospitalized adults at high risk of developing severe COVID-19, regardless of vaccination status. In fact, some in vitro studies also demonstrated potent inhibition of Omicron by nirmatrelvir therapy. Moreover, nirmatrelvir has shown significant efficacy in high-risk patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC. However, there is a lack of studies evaluating the clinical efficacy of nirmatrelvir against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC in real-world settings.In the present retrospective study, researchers used the electronic health records (EHRs) of the Clalit Health Services (CHS), representing ~52% of the Israeli population and two-thirds of their older adults.All the patients aged 40 years or older who had received a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis as outpatients on or before February 24, 2022, were eligible to enter the study. Since they were highly prone to developing severe COVID-19, the researchers deemed them eligible to receive the nirmatrelvir therapy based on a CHS-developed risk model. Additionally, they considered drug interactions and other contraindications mandated by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before initiating the nirmatrelvir regimen in eligible patients. Of 109,254 patients who met the study eligibility criteria, only 3902 (4%) received nirmatrelvir treatment during the study period.The key study finding was that regardless of the vaccination status, the rates of hospitalization and death due to COVID-19 were significantly lower among adults aged 65 years or older than among younger adults, both of which had received nirmatrelvir treatment. Accordingly, the former had 14.7 cases per 100,000 person-days, and the latter had 15.2 cases per 100,000 person-days, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 0.27 and 0.74, respectively.Notably, the aHR for death due to COVID-19 was 1.32. The study findings also aligned well with the subgroup analysis of the EPIC-HR trial. The observed risk of hospitalization due to Omicron was markedly lower in the current study, which was higher in the EPIC-HR trial conducted during the Delta variant wave. Overall, the study findings showed that while nirmatrelvir therapy benefitted patients 65 years or older and reduced their susceptibility towards developing severe COVID-19, it offered no apparent benefits for younger adults during the Omicron surge.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 replicates more efficiently than BA.2 or BA.5 sub-variants - In a recent study posted to bioRxiv* preprint server, researchers characterized the clinical isolates of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron BA.2.75 sub-variant. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron emerged in November 2021 and has since evolved into several sub-lineages. Currently, the BA.5 lineage is the predominant variant in circulation. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 (a sub-variant of the BA.2 lineage) appears more transmissible than BA.5 in India and Nepal. Moreover, the World Health Organization (WHO) has lately classified BA.2.75 as a variant of concern lineages under monitoring (VOC-LUM).SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 has more than 30 modifications in the spike protein relative to the Wuhan Hu-1 strain. BA.2 differs from BA.1 at 27 positions in the spike protein, and BA.2.75 differs from BA.2 by nine amino acids. Evidence suggests that BA.2.75 spike has a higher affinity for human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) than BA.2 spike. This raises concerns about the possibility of enhanced pathogenicity of BA.2.75.In the present study, researchers evaluated the pathogenicity and replicative capacity of clinical isolates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 in animal models. Three clinical isolates of BA.2.75 (TY41-716, NCD1757, and NCD1759) were isolated in VeroE6 cells expressing transmembrane protease, serine 2 (TMPRSS2). The nine (additional) amino acid substitutions of BA.2.75 (relative to BA.2) were confirmed for the three clinical isolates.First, the pathogenicity of the clinical isolates was studied in wild-type Syrian hamsters. Hamsters were infected with 10⁵ plaque-forming units (PFU) of clinical isolates of BA.2.75, BA.2, BA.5, or B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. Delta variant infection caused significant weight loss six days post-infection (dpi). Contrastingly, most hamsters infected with BA.2.75 isolates gained weight similar to BA.2-, BA.5, or mock-infected hamsters.Further, animals were infected with 10⁵ PFU of Omicron (BA.2, BA.2.75, and BA.5) and Delta (B.1.617.2) isolates to evaluate infection levels in the respiratory tract. Hamsters were euthanized, and their lungs and nasal turbinates were collected. Plaque assays were performed to quantitate viral titers. Viral titers were significantly lower in the nasal turbinates in hamsters infected with BA.2, BA.2.75 (NCD1757, TY41-716), or BA.5 isolates than in Delta-infected animals.Furthermore, the authors evaluated the replicative fitness of BA.2.75. Wildtype hamsters were infected with 2 x 10⁵ PFU of a mix comprising BA.2.75 and BA.5 in the following ratios: 1:1, 1:3, 1:19, or 1:199. The proportion of each Omicron sub-variant in the lungs and nasal turbinates was determined using next-generation sequencing (NGS) analysis. The authors found a higher proportion of BA.2.75 variant than BA.5 in the nasal turbinates of all infected hamsters regardless of the inoculum ratio. This was consistent for lung specimens from all except three hamsters.In summary, the authors found no significant differences in the body weight of hamsters after infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2, BA.5, or BA.2.75. However, viral titers in the lungs of hamsters infected with BA.2.75 isolates were higher than those in BA.2- or BA.5-infected animals.Notably, in BA.2.75-infected hamsters, the focal pneumonia was characterized by patchy inflammation interspersed in alveoli, suggesting that BA.2.75 could cause much more severe tissue damage than other Omicron variants. The findings showed that BA.2.75 replicates more efficiently in the lungs than BA.2 or BA.5.

What is the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant? - In a recent study posted to the bioRxiv* preprint server, researchers assessed the infectivity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron BA.2.75 variant compared to pre-existing variants. .. In the present study, researchers predicted the comparative risk of infection by recently emerging variants such as the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant compared to that against preexisting variants. The team assessed the evolutionary distance of viral spike (S) genes between the Wuhan variant and Omicron BA.4, BA.5, or BA.2.75. The S gene sequences were collected by searching the EpiCoV database of the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) for the one having a complete S gene sequence. The docking affinity associated with the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of each S protein of these variants with angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE-2) was assessed via cluster analysis and docking simulation.The amino acid sequences related to the S proteins were collected from the CoVariants website that classified the variants as per Nextstrain clades, wherein the Omicron BA.4 variant was classified as 22A, Omicron BA.5 as 22B, and Omicron BA.2.75 as 22D. Since BA.4 and BA.5 had similar S proteins, the S gene and amino acid sequences were grouped together for the study. The study results showed that the SARS-CoV-2 variants that had a longer evolutionary distance from the SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan variant were more likely to lead to an epidemic. The Omicron BA.2.75 variant was found to have the highest docking affinity of the viral S protein with the ACE2 protein. Compared to the Omicron BA.2 variant, while BA.4 and BA.5 had longer S gene evolutionary distances, the docking affinity observed was lower.Furthermore, compared to BA.2, BA.2.75 displayed longer evolutionary distances along with higher docking affinity. This indicated that BA.2.75 has a higher ability to enter host cells, while the currently available SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are less effective against this variant. The study findings showed that the infectivity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant was significantly high due to the long S gene evolutionary distance and the docking simulation for the viral S protein with ACE2. The researchers believe that Omicron BA.2.75 poses a higher risk of causing a global health crisis.

Omicron BA.2.75 not more resistant to antibodies than the currently dominating BA.5 variant, study suggests -In a recent study, researchers from Karolinska Institutet in Sweden, and others, have characterized the new omicron variant BA.2.75, comparing its ability to evade antibodies against current and previous variants. The study, published in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, suggests that BA.2.75 is not more resistant to antibodies than the currently dominating BA.5, which is positive news.In May 2022, a new variant of omicron, BA.2.75, was detected, which is driving a wave of infections in India, and has spread internationally. In the last few weeks, BA.2.75 has also been detected in Sweden.Identifying how vulnerable the population is, right now, to emerging variants is crucial. By producing a pseudovirus for BA.2.75, we were able to test its sensitivity to antibodies present in blood donors." Tests were carried out using 40 random blood samples taken in Stockholm, both before and after the first omicron wave. "Our study shows that omicron BA.2.75 has approximately the same level of resistance to antibodies as the dominant variant BA.5, which is reassuring news if we were to suffer a BA.2.75 wave in Sweden", says Ben Murrell, assistant professor at the Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, and the study's senior author.The researchers from Karolinska Institutet, University of Cape Town, South Africa, ETH Zürich, Switzerland, Karolinska University Hospital, and Imperial College London, Great Britain, have also investigated whether antiviral monoclonal antibodies, which are used clinically to treat already infected patients, lose their effect against omicron BA.2.75, compared to BA.5. Here, too, the researchers found no alarming differences.

Two Years Of Covid Caused The Steepest Drop In U.S. Life Expectancy In Nearly 100 Years, CDC Data Reveals - Life expectancy in the U.S. dropped for the second consecutive year in 2021—largely fueled by the Covid-19 pandemic—according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Wednesday. Covid-19 claimed nearly half a million lives in the U.S. in 2021. According to data published by the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), life expectancy at birth in the U.S. dropped to 76.1 years in 2021—the lowest it has been since 1996—from 77 years in 2020.The two pandemic years have caused life expectancy in the country to drop by 2.7 years—which according to Reuters is the steepest two-year decline in nearly 100 years.Despite vaccines being widely available for most of 2021, Covid-19 accounted for nearly half of the decline last year, followed by unintentional injuries (which includes drug overdoses), heart disease and chronic liver diseases.After dropping out of the top ten leading causes of death in 2020, suicides were among the top five contributors to the decline in life expectancy last year.The 2021 numbers also show a widened gap between men and women with the life expectancy of men dropping by a year to 73.2 while the same for women declined by 10 months to 79.1 years.Statewise, life expectancy data from 2020, released by the CDC earlier this week showed that Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at 80.7 years followed by Washington, Minnesota, California and Massachusetts, while Mississippi had the worst life expectancy in 2020 at only 71.9 years. Among various ethnic groups, life expectancy among American Indian and Alaskan Native people saw a 2.5-year decline in 2021 and cumulatively dropped by a staggering 6.5 years since 2020. The average life expectancy for the group now stands at only 65.2 years—which CNN notes was the average life expectancy of an American back in 1944. White Americans saw the second highest decline with their average life expectancy falling by one year to 76.4 years. Last year, White Americans had seen the smallest decline in life expectancy, while Black and Hispanic Americans were severely hit by the pandemic. In 2021, Black and Hispanic Americans experienced a much smaller decline. White Americans now trail both Black, Hispanic and Asian Americans when it comes to Covid-19 vaccine uptake, according to the CDC’s tracker.Data published last year showed the rest of the world has also seen declines in life expectancy due to Covid-19. According to a study conducted by researchers at the University of Oxford, the pandemic in 2020 caused the steepest decline in global life expectancy since World War II. The study noted that Americans were the worst hit by this drop while some countries like Denmark and Norway did not see a decline at all.

Fall covid surge possible, but unlikely to be as severe - Cold weather favors the coronavirus. But as summer gives way to fall, infectious-disease experts are guardedly optimistic that the spread of covid-19 this autumn and winter won’t be as brutal as in the previous two years of the pandemic.Coronavirus scenarios from multiple research teams, shared in recent weeks with federal officials, foresee stable or declining hospitalizations in early fall. The scenarios show the possibility of a late-fall surge. A new variant remains the biggest wild card. But several factors — including the approval this week of reformulated boosters and the buildup of immunity against the latest strain of the virus — could suppress some of the cold-season spread, experts say.“There’s sort of even odds that we would have some sort of moderate resurgence in the fall. But nothing appears to be projecting anything like an omicron wave,” said Justin Lessler, a University of North Carolina epidemiologist who helps lead the collection of covid-19 planning scenarios from a group of research organizations.The scenarios assume that reformulated vaccine boosters will be embraced by the public at a rate similar to that of the annual flu shots — possibly an optimistic assumption given that more than half of Americans eligible for boosters have yet to receive their first dose. Peter Marks, the top vaccine official at the Food and Drug Administration, said in a briefing Wednesday that the approval of reformulated boosters comes as the agency is “looking at a possible fall wave, with a peak around December 1st.” Predictions about the pandemic rarely age well. In the United States, the pandemic appeared to be winding down in May 2021 amid a vigorous vaccination campaign, only to get wound up again with the rise of the new variants. The emergence of a new variant in September could result in a wave of infections and severe illness in December, according to Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas Covid-19 Modeling Consortium. A variant emerging in October would push the peak to January, she said.

U.S. plans to shift to annual coronavirus shots, similar to flu vaccine - White House coronavirus coordinator Ashish Jha said Tuesday the newly reformulated omicron-targeting boosters mark an “important milestone” in the U.S. pandemic response, moving the country to a point where a single annual coronavirus shot should provide a “high degree of protection against serious illness all year.” The cadence would be similar to that of the annual flu shot, which could be administered at the same time. “I really believe this is why God gave us two arms — one for the flu shot and the other one for the covid shot,” Jha said. Heading into the third fall of the pandemic, Jha and other Biden administration health officials urged eligible Americans to get an updated booster now. The shots are available for people as young as 12, following approval last week of boosters from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech that target the dominant circulating strain of the virus, BA.5. What you need to know about the fall booster shots Staying up to date on coronavirus vaccination can get the country back “to a more normal set of rules,” Jha said, allowing businesses and schools to stay open. Barring curveballs from new variants, “it is reasonable to expect, based on what we know about immunology and science of this virus, that these new vaccines will provide better protection against infection, better protection against transmission and ongoing and better protection against serious illness,” he said at Tuesday’s news briefing Jha said this latest round of shots will offer protection during the busy cold and flu season and that the government hopes to transition people to getting the vaccine yearly. Typically, at least half of U.S. adults get a flu shot. Moving to yearly coronavirus shots would be a shift from the current practice, where high-risk Americans have been urged to get boosters every few months, but uptake has been disappointing. (The elderly and those with weakened immune systems may need more frequent doses.) All Americans must do their part to get the shot, if not for themselves, then for “your grandmother, or your vulnerable uncle or for your friend,” Jha said.

 Coronavirus dashboard for September 7: the slow ebbing on the way to endemicity continues - Let’s start today with a graph of South Africa’s cases and deaths for the past year: South Africa is where BA.1 and BA.4&5 originated. You can see the huge spike in cases last December from original Omicron, and the smaller spike this June from BA.4&5. And yet deaths never approached the peak from Delta in summer 2021. Even more importantly, both cases and deaths are now as low as, and in the past month have even been lower than at any point since the pandemic started over 2 years ago. I think this is a foretaste of what the future of covid is likely to be. Here is the same information for the US for the past 6 months: Neither one came even close during the BA.2.12.1 or BA.4&5 waves to their peak from original Omicron last winter (or, in the case of deaths, to their peak during Delta. And with no new variant showing signs of breaking out, cases have declined by over 40% from their recent peak in July. Deaths, which with the exception of June and July 2021 had always been over 1000/day, have not gotten significantly above 500/day for the past 4 1/2 months. Meanwhile, hospitalizations have also declined nearly 25% from the July peak: What is most remarkable is that this is despite the near total abandonment of both government and individual mitigation measures. As shown in the graph below, the % of people who have been fully vaccinated has virtually ground to a halt at a little over 67% since last winter: Meanwhile total confirmed cases have continued to increase to nearly 30% of the entire population. Since we know that 1/2 or more of cases are asymptomatic, so those people probably won’t bother to get tested, the likelihood is that over 60% of the entire US population has been infected at some point. Indeed, several months ago, a study of seroprevalence (bloodwork showing reaction to COVID) showed that almost 80% of school age children had at one point or another been infected: Additionally, we know that since home testing was widely available in January, many symptomatic people haven’t bothered to get “officially” tested either. Biobot wastewater data has shown that since that time something like 2/3’s of all cases are likely not officially confirmed. Speaking of which, here is their most recent regional update: After declining 45% nationally, cases turned up a little bit in the past week, mainly in the South and Northeast. That may just be an anomaly due to incomplete data, or it may herald something else. Since there has been no indication that any variant, including BA.4.6, is able to outcompete BA.5, my guess is that it is an anomaly. With vaccinations and advances in treatment, only about 1 in 750 cases now results in death, with those skewing to the unvaccinated and the elderly. I suspect that we will continue to see slow declines until the cold weather arrives, or else some new even more competitive variant appears.

No Clear Evidence That COVID-19 Was Transmitted From Bats - A new Tel Aviv University study rejects assertions, according to which the origin of the COVID-19 outbreak is in bats. According to the study, bats have a highly effective immune system that enables them to deal relatively easily with viruses considered lethal for other mammals. The study was led by Dr. Maya Weinberg from the laboratory of Prof. Yossi Yovel, Head of the Sagol School of Neuroscience and faculty member of the School of Zoology & Steinhardt Museum of Natural History at Tel Aviv University. The research team reviewed dozens of leading articles and studies in this field, and their conclusions were published in writing in the prestigious iScience Journal. The researchers explain that the infamous reputation of the bats is well known among both – the scientific community and the public at large, that they are often accused of being reservoirs of viruses including Covid-19, thus posing a threat to public health. In the present study, Dr. Weinberg sought to disprove this erroneous theory and show that bats play an important role in exterminating insects, replanting of deforested areas, and pollination of a number of crops. The researchers claim that there is indeed evidence that the origin of the ancient potential Covid-19 was in bats. However, on the other hand, until now, two years after the pandemic first broke out, we still do not know for sure what the exact origin of the COVID-19 variant is. Dr. Weinberg: “In general, bats are mistakenly conceived of as reservoirs of many contagious disease, only due to their being positive serologically positive; in other words, in possession of antibodies, which means that bats have survived the disease and developed an immune response. After that they overcame the virus altogether and disengaged from it; hence, they are no longer its carriers. Nevertheless, in many cases, a virus similar to a human pathogen is liable to be found in bats; however, it is not pathogenic to humans, and is not sufficient to use bats as a reservoir.” Dr. Weinberg adds: “In order to examine the overall situation, we conducted a meta-analysis of the literature and checked the finding for over 100 viruses for which bats are considered potential reservoirs; such as Ebola, SARS, and COVID. We found that in a considerable number of cases (48%) this claim was based on the incidence of antibodies or PCR tests, rather than actual isolation of identical viruses. Moreover, many of the reported findings are not convincing. The mere isolation of a virus is not enough to see an animal as a reservoir, since a minimum number of index cases is required in which the virus is isolated in order to be considered a reservoir animal, as well as the existence of an established path of transmission. Furthermore, the very detection of a particular virus in bats does not necessarily ensure further infection, and other biological, ecological and anthropogenic conditions must exist in order for such an event to occur.”

Impact of vaccinia virus-based vaccines on the 2022 monkeypox virus outbreak - There has been a noticeable difference between the outbreak of monkeypox in 2022 (MPXV-2022) and previous outbreaks. The previous outbreaks led to a small number of infections and were mostly localized, whereas the current outbreak has led to more than 53,000 confirmed cases in more than 100 countries within a few months of the first report on 7th May 2022. The monkeypox outbreak of 2022 was declared a global health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 23rd July 2022. Phylogenetic analyses of genomic sequences obtained from samples that were collected from at least 15 countries reported the West African clade of MPXV (MPXV-WA) to be involved in the 2022 outbreak. However, this is unusual since this clade has a historically low outbreak-causing potential. Vaccines based on the vaccinia virus (VACV), which were initially developed against smallpox, can be used to prevent and control monkeypox. Three prominent VACV-based vaccines are available, including first, second, and third-generation vaccines. The use of first-generation vaccines such as Dryvax is not recommended against MPXV due to safety concerns. However, second-generation vaccines such as ACAM2000 are relatively safer compared to first-generation vaccines and can be used against monkeypox in the US.A new study published in the Viruses journal aimed to investigate the cross-reactivity of VACV-based vaccines against the MPXV viruses responsible for the 2022 outbreak.The study involved downloading complete genome sequences of MPXV-2022, genome reference sequences of MPXV-CB and VACV, and reference sequences for MVA-BN, Dryvax, and ACAM2000 vaccines from several databases for multiple sequence alignment. Assessment of the cross-reactivity of the vaccines was carried out using the VACV reference sequence since it served as a representative of the VACV-based vaccines. In addition, pairwise sequence alignments were carried out to detect genetic similarities. The results reported approximately 84% genetic similarity between MPXV-2022 sequences and VACV reference sequences. The sequences were found to contain about 13% insertion/deletion (indel) and 3% single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which is equal to 27.5 k indels and 6.5 k SNPs. A 94 to 98% genetic similarity was observed for the eight identified immunogenic proteins between VACV as well as the MPXV-CB reference sequence and MPXV-2022 consensus sequence.The same site of mutations was observed in 4 of the 8 proteins between VACV and the two MPXV sequences. D8L and H3L were found to be the two proteins with the highest number of mutations that were similar to VACV. Moreover, all the common and unique mutations were observed to be exposed and, therefore, can be targeted by neutralizing antibodies.Furthermore, a high degree of genetic similarity was also observed between T cell epitope associated 121 proteins of VACV with both MPXV-CB and MPXV-2022. 71.6% of VACV-derived T cell epitopes were found to have exact similarities with both MPXV-CB and MPXV-2022. However, genetic variation was observed in over one-quarter of the T cell epitopes between VACV and both MPXV orthologs. Additionally, 89.2% of the T cell epitopes were observed to be identical between MPXV-CB and MPXV-2022.Therefore, the current study demonstrated a high degree of genetic similarity between the current MPXV-2022 and MPXV-CB. Furthermore, the genetic similarity was also observed between these two MPXV orthologs and the VACV reference sequence. This suggests that the currently available VACV-based vaccines can protect against MPXV-2022. However, further studies are required to determine the efficacy of these vaccines against MPXV-2022.

Monkeypox infection causing acute myocarditis - case report - A recent case report published in the journal JACC Case Reports indicated that monkeypox infection might be associated with acute myocarditis or heart muscle inflammation. Monkeypox is a zoonotic virus that causes mild to moderate infection in humans, lasting 2 to 4 weeks. The most common symptoms are fever, skin rashes or lesions, and lymph node swelling. However, in some cases, infections can lead to severe medical complications. Currently, the case fatality ratio of monkeypox infection has been estimated to be 3-6%. The case report described the medical manifestations of a 31-year-old male patient with laboratory-confirmed monkeypox infection. The patient developed malaise, myalgias, fever, and multiple skin lesions on his face, hands, and genitalia and presented to the clinic. Three days after monkeypox detection, he presented to the emergency department because of chest heaviness that disrupted his night-time sleep. His physical examination revealed multiple severe skin lesions on his face, wrists, thighs, and genitalia. He also had one ulcerated lesion on the penis, painful swelling of the foreskin and glans, and lymph node swelling. The patient had a mild infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) two months before the diagnosis of monkeypox infection. In addition, he was treated with pre-exposure prophylaxis against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) due to sexual risk exposure (men who have sex with men).The electrocardiography (ECG) findings of the patient revealed ventricular repolarization abnormalities. However, a normal cardiothoracic index was observed in the chest x-ray examination. Regarding biochemical parameters, increased levels of C-reactive protein, creatine phosphokinase, troponin I, and brain natriuretic peptide were observed. Based on the clinical findings, the patient was suspected of having acute myocarditis (heart muscle inflammation) and was admitted to the intensive care unit under airway isolation. After 24 hours of admission, cardiac magnetic resonance was performed, which revealed myocardial inflammation, edema, and necrosis. Based on these findings, the diagnosis of acute myocarditis was confirmed.The patient was treated with supportive care and exercise restriction and had a complete clinical recovery. The treatment with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was terminated. This case report highlights the possibility of cardiac manifestations in patients with monkeypox infection. This finding might help physicians to make appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic decisions.

New case study provides comprehensive characterization and follow-up of monkeypox infection - Historically, monkeypox outbreaks have been primarily found in Central and West Africa. This zoonotic infection is caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), which belongs to the Poxviridae family of the Orthopoxvirus genus. Until 2022, the incidence of monkeypox outside Africa was a rare event. The recent detection of monkeypox outside Africa was found to be linked to patients’ household contacts. The current study analyzed a male patient with monkeypox from Sweden. He did not have a history of smallpox vaccination and was otherwise healthy. The patient reported an inguinal swelling on day 0, with a manifestation of a small skin change on his foreskin the following day. This change in the foreskin quickly transformed into a deeper and well-circumscribed lesion with local lymphadenopathy within the next few days. On the 5th and 6th day, fever developed peaking at 39°C. The patient sought care at an outpatient clinic after a week from the symptom onset. During this time, the fever subsided and no new lesions erupted. The patient reported receiving oral sex from several male partners, within the three weeks before the manifestation of clinical symptoms. On day 11, the lesions increased to 2 cm in diameter. Clinicians performed microbiologic analyses for syphilis, herpes simplex virus, and Haemophilus ducreyi, and all tests were negative. Although the genital lesions healed, local lymphadenopathy increased. On day 25, the patient suffered a ruptured lymph node with discharge. During a follow-up visit on day 25, he was reported to be feeling much better; however, he had enlarged lymph nodes. Additionally, the genital lesions also reduced to 5 mm and only bled slightly when touched. The ruptured lymph nodes also healed during this period.During the ten-week follow-up, clinicians collected repeated samples from the ruptured local lymph node, urine, blood, semen, respiratory tract, and genital lesion. MPXV DNA was detected from most samples. Nevertheless, genital samples, which initially tested positive, exhibited a rapid decline in the viral DNA content. MPXV DNA was detected in ruptured lymph node samples 40 days after symptoms onset. Similarly, the virus was found in semen samples after 54 days and in saliva after 76 days.Many important pieces of information regarding monkeypox have been highlighted in this case study. For instance, the clinical manifestation of single genital lesions and enlarged local lymph nodes were observed. These clinical manifestations clearly indicated that the MPXV strain, associated with the 2022 monkeypox outbreak, is different from previous outbreaks. The new strain associated with the incidence of localized lesions is significantly different from the classic generalized rash or vesicles that spread over the body. In addition, rupture of the lymph nodes is also a new symptom. Interestingly, differential viral kinetics were also observed in different samples over time. The persistence of MPXV DNA in semen and respiratory samples implicates the transmission route. Phylogenetic analyses showed that the new strain of virus belongs to the Western African clade of monkeypox, which has exhibited lower mortality rates compared to the Central African clade. The current study presented a fast and accurate bioinformatic analysis to classify viruses at a relatively low cost.

Neurological manifestations associated with monkeypox infection - Previously, the monkeypox virus was primarily detected in endemic countries of west and central Africa. However, in April of this year, the virus suddenly began to spread rapidly, primarily among men who have sex with men (MSM), with a few cases occurring in other contacts.A new IJD Regions study presents what is known regarding the neurological presentations and complications of monkeypox infection. Monkeypox is a deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) virus of the Orthopoxvirus genus, which also contains the smallpox virus.Like smallpox, monkeypox is mainly a disease of the skin. However, unlike smallpox, which has a 30-40% mortality rate, monkeypox infection appears to resolve spontaneously within three to four weeks of symptom onset in almost all patients. The current outbreak is caused by a less virulent monkeypox strain; however, it continues to spread rapidly.Transmission of this monkeypox strain appears to be through intimate skin-to-skin contact between a person with active infection and an uninfected individual. The pathogen appears to spread following contact with fluids in the skin lesions or other contaminated surfaces.The most common neurological complications of monkeypox infection include headache and muscle aches, which have been reported in about half of infected patients. Additional neurological symptoms that have been reported include encephalitis, seizures, dizziness, fatigue, vision alterations, photophobia, pain, anxiety, and depression.Encephalitis, or brain inflammation, is monkeypox infection's most serious neurological complication. Encephalitis may be due to either direct viral invasion and damage of the central nervous system (CNS) or secondary to immune-mediated inflammation of the brain.This form of encephalitis presents with headache, fever, altered consciousness, seizures, and focal neurologic deficits.Early recognition of this complication, which can be detected with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) examination for definitive diagnosis of the underlying pathology, is key to limiting damage.

Predicting the viruses that will spread to humans - The natural world is a reservoir of plagues. At any moment, untold numbers of viruses circulate among animals. Inevitably, some will cross the species barrier, infecting people and making them sick. Scientists call such an event a “zoonotic spillover.” No one knows how often such spillovers happen—presumably, animal viruses are always establishing footholds that our immune systems destroy. We notice, though, when the viruses propagate. Today, countries around the world are seeing cases of monkeypox, a milder relative of smallpox. Just like covid-19, the disease originated in other animals. It was seen first in monkeys, in 1958, before being detected in a boy, in 1970. Other recent spillovers have caused diseases including Ebola, flu, Lassa, Marburg, mers, Nipah, sars, and Zika. Dawn Zimmerman, a fifty-one-year-old wildlife veterinarian formerly at the Smithsonian Global Health Program, has spent years studying zoonotic viruses in wildlife in Turkana county, Kenya. On one trip in 2017, she visited an area in the northwest called No Man’s Land. “It’s because no one owns it,” she told me. “People are always fighting over that land.” On a field day, her team might gather early in the morning to drive into the bush, sometimes accompanied by armed guards. They would check rodent traps set the night before, taking oral and rectal swabs from any animal they found, and follow troops of baboons, picking up droppings and sampling them. Occasionally, they would set a trap for a baboon—a cage that closes when a primate pulls on an ear of maize tied to a string—to facilitate sampling. In the evening, they’d use mist nets on riverbanks to catch the bats that emerged after dusk. Sometimes the team took samples from camels—livestock animals that are known to be “viral reservoirs,” or sources of possible spillover. In one town, a woman named Ester was in charge of the livestock; after having tea in Ester’s house, Zimmerman’s team went out to meet the animals, bringing along medicine for them as a thank-you. They hadn’t brought enough, and an owner pointed what looked like an AK-47 at them. “She just put her finger up, and she’s, like, ‘No!’ ” Zimmerman recalled, of Ester. “And he put his gun away.” To access a different site, they had to cross a river. “The first thing I asked is, ‘Are there crocodiles in this river?’ And they said, ‘No, no, totally hunted out, no problem,’ ” Zimmerman told me. The researchers crossed as part of a large crowd, with Zimmerman immersed to her chest. That night, while they were setting up their bat nets, they saw two pairs of crocodile eyes shining in the water. While sampling, researchers like Zimmerman wear N95 respirators, rubber boots, one or two pairs of gloves, and Tyvek suits—a getup that can become unbearable in the heat. They lug around a container of liquid nitrogen for storing their samples until they can be frozen and sent to a lab, where researchers will screen them for viruses, then sequence the viruses’ genes to determine if they’re known or novel. In another lab, further analyses might attempt to predict the risk that any novel viruses pose to people. For several years, Zimmerman’s data made its way to PREDICT, a program run by the United States Agency for International Development (U.S.A.I.D.) aimed at predicting, preventing, and containing emerging infectious diseases. From 2009 to 2020, PREDICT’s researchers collected samples from a hundred and sixty thousand animals and people in about thirty countries, and discovered almost a thousand new viruses. It’s since been replaced by deep-vzn(Discovery & Exploration of Emerging Pathogens—Viral Zoonoses), a five-year program, also funded by U.S.A.I.D., which will spend a hundred and twenty-five million dollars to find new viruses in animals around the world. deep-vzn will focus in particular on coronaviruses, filoviruses, and paramyxoviruses—the three viral families that include sars-CoV-2, Ebola, and measles. (U.S.A.I.D. has also launched a hundred-million-dollar effort called stop Spillover, aimed at preventing and catching spillovers, based on knowledge gained from viral surveillance.) “It will be a defining characteristic of this century, these zoonotic spillovers,”

Hand, foot and mouth disease afflicting children hyped up as 'tomato flu' - Leading clinicians and medical researchers in India say they are aghast at the media reports that portray hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) — a common, relatively mild, viral infection afflicting children — as caused by a new virus responsible for what is dubbed as 'tomato flu'. The reports appear to originate from the 'correspondence' section of Lancet Respiratory Medicine published on 17 August that said: "Just as we are dealing with the probable emergence of fourth wave of COVID-19, a new virus known as tomato flu, or tomato fever, has emerged in India in the state of Kerala in children younger than five years." Vinod Scaria, virologist and principal scientist at the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi, said: "Calling the virus new and sensationalizing HFMD as 'tomato flu' through correspondence in Lancet Respiratory Medicine, without taking into account data in published literature or facts on the ground, is the issue here." The strains responsible for the current outbreak were identified as enteroviruses (viruses that are transmitted through the intestine) Coxsackie A16 and A6 by the state's Institute of Advanced Virology in Thonnakkal. A report in the Journal of Medical Virology on 24 August also confirms the predominant role of the two Coxsackie strains. But according to the Lancet article, "primary symptoms observed in children with tomato flu are similar to those of chikungunya, which include high fever, rashes and intense pain in joints". It goes on to say: "Tomato flu gained its name on the basis of the eruption of red and painful blisters throughout the body that gradually enlarge to the size of a tomato." That description of symptoms has been challenged as "ludicrous" by Aravind Reghukumaar who heads the Department of Infectious Diseases at the state-run Trivandrum Medical College, Kerala. "HFMD is a clinical diagnosis that cannot be confused with chikungunya or dengue," Reghukumaar told SciDev.Net. "Furthermore, it is not scientific to name diseases after vegetables." "Overall, this article has become a source of media sensation, medical misinformation and unnecessary alarm in India," said Reghukumaar, one of a group of leading Indian doctors who have written to The Lancet calling for the "retraction of this unscientific article at the earliest".

The fight to keep little-known bacteria out of powdered baby formula - Within days of arriving home from the hospital, Jeanine Kunkel spiked a fever that sent her back to the hospital. The newborn had developed an infection — caused, her doctors said, by ingesting formula tainted with the bacteria Cronobacter sakazakii. The infection led to a severe case of meningitis that caused irreparable brain damage. Jeanine’s family sued the formula maker, Abbott Laboratories, arguing the company was responsible for her illness, but a jury found the company not liable. The company’s lawyers dredged up incidents from the family’s past and argued that the bacteria could have come from anywhere, including the family kitchen. Jeanine’s situation is rare, but not isolated. Federal regulators and food safety experts have long been troubled by powdered formula’s ability to harbor cronobacter — a bacteria that is harmless for most but can be debilitating or deadly for newborns and others with weak immune systems. The Food and Drug Administration requires formula makers to inspect for cronobacter and have urged neonatal intensive care units to avoid powdered formula. But information about the risk of cronobacter infections is not trickling down to parents of healthy, full-term babies, who remain vulnerable to infection until about 2 or 3 months, according to experts. New parents are often sent home from the hospital with free samples of powdered formula — and they are rarely urged toward what food safety experts say is a safer and widely available alternative: sterile, ready-to-drink formula sealed at the factory. “The FDA, CDC and companies know the [powdered] product is not sterile, but moms and dads do not,” said Bill Marler, an attorney who specializes in foodborne illness outbreaks. They “are putting the burden of making this product safe on the consumer before it is fed to their baby.”

Drug Recalls for Nitrosamines Could Cost Big Pharma Millions - Nitrosamines, linked to cancer, have surfaced in Zantac, Januvia, and generic valsartan. Now lawyers are circling. When a drug is recalled because there’s something in it that shouldn’t be, it’s scary but often traceable: Foreign objects such as shards of metal or microorganisms might infiltrate medications through dirty factories or lax manufacturing practices. But recently a more insidious—and difficult to eradicate—form of contamination has surfaced among makers of some of the world’s best-selling pharmaceuticals. They’re called nitrosamines. Rather than poisoning drugs through unsanitary conditions, nitrosamines—a group of organic compounds that animal studies have linked to cancer—stem from chemical interactions that are only now becoming understood and have proven complicated to fully avoid. That complexity could cost Big Pharma big time. A recent report from Morgan Stanley says trial judgments over nitrosamines against the makers of Zantac, including GSK and Sanofi, could reach $45 billion alone. But other big companies such as Merck and Pfizer have also found nitrosamines in their drugs, and the Zantac trials could turn attention on them.

Ubiquitous ‘Forever Chemicals’ Increase Risk of Liver Cancer, Researchers Report - The ubiquity of the toxic class of substances commonly known as “forever chemicals” is well established. Now, medical researchers have zeroed in on their effects on a crucial component of the human body’s internal filtration system: the liver. In a peer-reviewed study published this month in JHEP Reports, a sister publication of the Journal of Hepatology, researchers at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California found that people who had the highest levels of exposure to the chemical perfluorooctane sulfonic acid were 4.5 times more likely to develop liver cancer than those with the lowest exposure. Scientists’ understanding of the effects of “forever chemicals” has steadily evolved since 2015, when researchers observed that the chemicals—varieties of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, known by the acronym PFAS (pronounced PEE-fahs”)—were present in over 95% of blood serum samples collected from the general U.S. population. Last year, scientists noted the presence of PFAS for the first time in the snow and melted water at the summit of Mount Everest.PFAS are known as forever chemicals because of the slow rate at which they break down in the environment and their persistence in accumulating in the human body and other organisms. Commonly used in such household items as nonstick pans, cleaning products and stain-resistant coatings on fabrics and carpet, they have been shown to increase the risk of certain cancers, suppress immune system response, decrease fertility and lead to developmental delays in children. Although earlier research had linked occurrences of liver cancer in animals to PFAS, the study is one of the first that connects the most common form of liver cancer in humans, hepatocellular carcinoma, to the chemicals.Jesse Goodrich, an environmental epidemiologist who served as one of the study’s lead authors, said he and his colleagues examined blood samples collected from participants in a large-scale research project conducted in 1999-2000 and then tracked the health histories of those participants two decades later. Goodrich and his fellow researchers identified 50 participants who over time were diagnosed with liver cancer and compared their 20-year-old blood samples with those of 50 people in the project who did not develop cancer. The results showed that those whose blood samples placed them in the top 10% of participants registering PFAS exposure in 2000 had a higher risk of developing liver cancer than those who had the lowest exposure. “A really important part of the studies is actually being able to say that before these people got cancer, they had higher levels” of the chemicals, Goodrich said. “And that helps us to determine that it’s more likely in this situation that it’s actually PFAS that are associated with the cancer as opposed to just some sort of random chance.” Goodrich said that one of the more critical implications of the findings was the high mortality rate associated with liver cancer, which in 2020 was the world’s third-deadliest form of cancer. The five-year survival rate for those diagnosed with liver cancer is about 20%.

Quebec government allows multinational Glencore to continue poisoning the population of Rouyn-Noranda - The right-wing CAQ (Coalition Avenir Québec) provincial government is continuing its manoeuvres to stifle popular anger after new revelations about the massive and deadly pollution generated by the Horne Foundry, owned by the multinational Glencore, in Rouyn-Noranda in northwestern Quebec. Premier François Legault’s government recently announced that the daily arsenic emissions threshold, set at 100 nanograms per cubic metre (ng/m3) for 2021 by the previous Liberal government, should be phased down to 15 ng/m3 by 2027—which is still five times higher than the provincial cap of 3 ng/m3. It has long been known that the massive emission of arsenic and other heavy metals from the smelter, one of Canada’s most polluting facilities, is causing serious health problems for the population of Rouyn-Noranda. This includes a significantly higher rate of lung cancer than the provincial average, 50 percent more cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a much higher number of low-birth-weight babies, and a life expectancy of up to five years less than the provincial average in neighbourhoods near the smelter. The Legault government's announcement will not change this health catastrophe. The CAQ's policy follows in the footsteps of the Liberals and the PQ who preceded it in power and who have known about the consequences of emissions since at least the mid-1970s. Then, as now, the authorities’ primary concern is preserving the profits generated by the Horne smelter. First, the new threshold, even if respected, continues to pose a threat to the health of the population of Rouyn-Noranda, as well as to the fauna and flora at least 50 km from the smelter. Dr. Clodel Naud-Bellavance points to the increased risks for children, who are more affected by arsenic emissions because of their small size and because they tend to play in the soil contaminated by the fallout of emissions. “Five years, it’s long in the life of a child,”  

Arsenic Found in NYC Public Housing Water - Bloomberg

• Tenants warned against water; New tests raise doubt on levels
• The city’s projects plagued with issues including mold, vermin

Residents of a New York City public housing complex should avoid drinking or cooking with water from their taps after initial samples revealed unsafe levels of arsenic, Mayor Eric Adams’ office said. Adams stopped by the Jacob Riis Houses in the East Village on Friday to meet with tenants, who had complained of cloudy water. The complex, run by the New York City Housing Authority, or NYCHA, is home to more than 2,500 people.

Jackson, Mississippi, mayor warns public water system could break under pressure as service slowly resumes - The 160,000 residents of Jackson, Mississippi suffered their fifth day Friday without safe drinking water coupled with inadequate water pressure. Since Monday, after flood waters knocked out the water treatment plant, crews have worked day and night in an effort to normalize water pressure and resolve pH imbalances so that tens of thousands of residents may soon be able to consume a necessity. For the foreseeable future, Jackson residents are being told to not consume the water, with the city remaining under a boil-water notice, forcing thousands to wait in line in 90-degree Fahrenheit heat for bottled water at distribution points operated by the National Guard. Multiple neighborhoods and businesses, including Ashland Estates, Bank Plus, Brenhaven, Chesapeake, Commonwealth, Kroger Shopping Center, Lakeshore Apartments, Riverchase, Timberlake Campground, and Windward Bluff, which get their water from the Pearl River Valley Water Supply District, remain under the boil-water notice announced Monday. Public schools have temporarily converted to remote learning after they had reopened amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Democratic mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba has warned that as the water pressure begins to normalize, a plethora of new issues may arise with the city’s fragile water distribution network. “I do want to forewarn you that another issue we may experience, as they’re able to increase the pressure at the plants to levels that it has not seen in many years, the challenge then becomes whether we have pipes that rupture across the city,” Lumumba said Friday, adding, “We know that we have brittle pipes, we have aged pipes—just as our water treatment facilities are aged—that’s a challenge that we’re going to have to be on the ground and dealing with as time persists.” After President Joe Biden approved a request from Republican Governor Tate Reeves for an emergency declaration Tuesday night, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell visited Friday to assess the situation. Criswell told CBS News, “Our focus right now for FEMA is handling the immediate needs that Jackson, Mississippi has.” She continued: “And right now, that’s making sure that they have safe water to drink, and that we are bringing in the resources that can do some temporary repairs to restore the water pressure to the city.” Former New Orleans mayor and senior advisor to the president, Mitch Landrieu, who is responsible for overseeing the implementation of the $2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act Biden signed late last year, joined US Representative Bennie Thompson at Grove Park on Friday to “help” with the recovery effort. Thompson, whose district includes Jackson, assured residents the federal government is using every available asset from FEMA to the EPA and the US Army Corps of Engineers to assist in the city’s recovery. “In time, we will mitigate this situation, and in the long term, hopefully we will resolve it so it will never happen again,” Thompson said.

New Mexico Town Has Only 20 Days Of Fresh Water Left -The city of Las Vegas, New Mexico, has 20 days of fresh water left, and officials are searching for alternative sources to prevent contaminated water from flowing to households and businesses, according to CNN. Not to be confused with Las Vegas, Nevada, the 13,000-person city in San Miguel County relies solely on the now contaminated Gallinas River, which is full of ash and debris after the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire. Las Vegas' water treatment facility typically uses chlorine to clean the water, but it becomes carcinogenic when mixed with carbon-infused water because of all the ash. "We need to get the carbon out of the water before we add disinfection," Las Vegas Utilities Director Maria Gilvarry recently told residents at a public meeting. We noted in late July (T-minus 50 days to no fresh water) that there was no immediate solution to fix the town's water woes. Time is running out to find new water sources. City officials are testing water in a nearby lake that could be their saving grace and buy the water-stricken town a few months. The tests take several days, and the hope is the water has less ash that would allow it to be run through the treatment facility. "Our fingers are crossed on that," Las Vegas Mayor Louie Trujillo said, adding the tests "will determine the quality of water we're going to be sending to one of our reservoirs."Gilvarry said if the water source is good enough, the city would have about two months of added water capacity, enough time to install upgraded treatment systems capable of processing the sediment-heavy water. If the water tests are inadequate, city and state officials would implement a boil-water order and possibly increase rationings. Las Vegas has entered the final countdown until it exhausts all fresh water. Residents have been learning to live with less. They might have to live with a lot less if an immediate solution isn't found.

Floodplains improve the water quality of rivers - Riverine floodplains are among the most species-rich ecosystems on earth. Because they form the interface between land and water, they are hotspots of nutrient turnover and biodiversity. Along many rivers, however, numerous floodplains have been cut off from waterways or converted to other uses. At the same time, too many nutrients enter the water, especially nitrogen. Both degrade water quality and threaten biodiversity—both in the rivers themselves and in the seas into which they flow. Researchers working on the international IDES collaborative project have determined just how large the contribution of floodplains is to reduce nitrogen for the Danube River basin. "The special feature of our study is that we looked at such a large area for the first time, because the Danube has the second largest catchment area in Europe," The Danube catchment covers an area of more than 800,000 km2 and stretches across 19 countries. Some 70 to 80% of its floodplains have been cut off from the river or converted into agricultural land in recent decades, depriving it of its ecosystem functions and services. The researchers now wanted to know how much of the nutrient retention is provided by the remaining active floodplains. To do this, the team used the MONERIS model developed at the IGB, which determines nutrient inputs from various sources—including the atmosphere, fertilizer use in agriculture and sewage treatment plants—and calculates their fate and transport in the river system. According to the study, 500,000 metric tons of nitrogen enter the waters of the Danube River Basin each year, predominantly as nitrate. Most of the inputs come from agriculture (44%) and urban sources (30%). Two-thirds of these inputs reach the Black Sea, and one-third, or 160,000 metric tons, are degraded in water bodies. To find out how large the share of floodplains in nitrate retention is, the team supplemented the MONERIS calculations with further modeling for the Danube and its tributaries Sava, Tisza and Jantra. There, 3,842 km2 of floodplains are found, accounting for nearly half of all active floodplains in the Danube basin. "Most nitrate is degraded in the water network, for example by nitrogen being taken up by plankton or converted by bacteria (denitrification). But floodplains can also contribute to a not inconsiderable extent to nutrient retention," Andreas Gericke reports. The results show that active floodplains degrade 33,200 tons of nitrate annually, which corresponds to 6.5% of the input. Based on the model results, the researchers estimate that nitrate removal could be increased by 14.5% if the approximately 1,300 km² of potentially restorable floodplains and oxbow lakes were reconnected to the main streams.

The summer drought took a toll on corn, wheat, tomatoes and a lot of other American crops - It was a bad year for corn. And for tomatoes. And for many other American crops.Farmers, agricultural economists and others taking stock of this summer’s growing season say drought conditions and extreme weather have wreaked havoc on many row crops, fruits and vegetables, with the American Farm Bureau Federation suggesting yields could be down by as much as a third compared with last year.American corn is on track to produce its lowest yield since the drought of 2012, according to analysts at Rabobank, which collects data about commodity markets. This year’s hard red winter wheat crop was the smallest since 1963, the bank’s analysts said. In Texas, cotton farmers have walked away from nearly 70 percent of their crop because the harvest is so paltry, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The California rice harvest is half what it would be in a normal year, an industry group said.The poor yields are likely more than a one-year blip, as climate change alters weather patterns in agriculturally important parts of the country, contributing to higher food prices that experts don’t see ebbing any time soon.Drought has consumed 40 percent of the country for the past 101 weeks, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey said. But precisely where that 40 percent is has shifted over time, meaning different swaths of the country’s agricultural land have been affected at different times, spreading pain and difficult choices geographically and by crop.“Spring wheat, durum wheat, barley [in the Northeast] — those were just hammered in 2021. For some of those crops it was the lowest yields we’ve seen since the 1980s,” Rippey said. “The biggest impacts this year have been the Central and Southern Great Plains — Nebraska southward through Texas — and the two big crops hit this year are grain sorghum [primarily used for animal feed] and cotton.”Based on last month’s numbers, he said, it looks like abandonment of the Texas cotton crop will be the highest on record, around 69 percent: “That’s when farmers just walk away.”In California, farmers are making tough choices to give up on their strawberries and tomatoes, lettuces and melons, so that whatever water they get goes to crops like almonds, grapes and olives, where they’ve sunk multiyear investments and the payoff is better, Rippey said.Even with recent rains, a lot of the western United States is still looking at a long-term drought, said Curtis Riganti, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center. “We’re seeing widespread extreme and exceptional drought in California’s Central Valley, parts of Nevada, central and southern Oregon, the central High Plains, southern Oklahoma and Texas,” he said. “And while we’ve seen a pretty active monsoon season this year over New Mexico, Arizona and southern Colorado, in terms of refilling reservoirs it doesn’t do a ton of good.”

If groundwater tables drop, streams and rivers seep away and pollute drinking water - Increasing drought, less precipitation, rising water demand in agriculture—climate change is causing problems for our groundwater. In Germany and around the world, it is leading to falling groundwater levels in some regions. When the underground water table is low, polluted surface water from streams and rivers finds its way more and more into the groundwater. The result: Our drinking water and groundwater ecosystems are endangered—making a problem of quantity a problem of quality too. This is what researchers are currently describing in the scientific journal Water Research. Their recommendation: new research approaches and regionally adapted concepts to improve groundwater formation. "We see a direct consequence of climate change here, whereby our most important water resource—groundwater—is at risk," says Hans Jürgen Hahn from the University of Koblenz-Landau, one of the authors of the study. In many areas around the world, the groundwater tables are dropping more and more, as the recharge rate is also declining. At the same time, groundwater extraction are increasing on account of agricultural irrigation and for drinking water supply. This results in an additional lowering of groundwater levels, coupled with a change in the regional landscape water balance—causing climate impact to spiral downwards ever faster. "This puts us at a tipping point for regional landscape water balance in many places," Unlike in the past, the lower groundwater level means that in many places the groundwater no longer pushes upwards to feed streams and rivers (exfiltrates)—water from the flowing waters seeps into the subsoil instead (infiltrates). This pressure reversal sets the scene for pollutants to enter the underground water. This is because not only rainwater and spring water flow in the streams and rivers—but also effluent from sewage treatment plants. "We're increasingly polluting the groundwater with wastewater constituents—with residues of medicines, household chemicals, artificial sweeteners and other contaminants," explains Christian Griebler from the University of Vienna. Also, a reversal in the flow direction between surface water and groundwater means that wetlands are drying out. "Since all current studies predict further declines in groundwater levels in large parts of the world, the problem will intensify in the future. We're going to encounter this problem more and more as summers become increasingly dry,"

Soil temperature can predict pest spread in crops - A new study from North Carolina State University shows soil temperature can be used to effectively monitor and predict the spread of the corn earworm (Helicoverpa zea), a pest that ravages corn, cotton, soybeans, peppers, tomatoes and other vegetable crops. The ability to better monitor the pest and make predictions about where it will appear could help farmers control the pest more effectively, which would reduce the financial and environmental impacts of pesticide use. The researchers combined historical soil temperature data with long-term corn earworm monitoring data and information on how the pest survives cold conditions in a lab setting to better understand "overwintering success," or how well the pest can survive underground during the colder winter months. Greater overwintering success can expand the areas where the pest can live and thrive, the researchers say, as the pest can migrate long distances. Generally, greater overwintering success in more northern latitudes increases the potential for crop damage from this pest further north. Climate change also affects overwintering success. "There is a preconceived notion that pests have little overwintering success north of 40 degrees latitude," said Douglas Lawton, a former NC State postdoctoral researcher and co-corresponding author of a paper that describes the research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "That may have been true in the 1930s, but now we have more data-guided evidence to ask and answer the question, 'Where can this species actually overwinter?'" The research shows that 40 degrees latitude is not the best division for overwintering success, so much so that the researchers devised their own maps—overlaying the three different data sets—to show three relevant geographic zones: A "southern range" where pests survive over the winter months, a "northern limits" area where pests are generally unable to survive during winter months, and a "transitional zone" in between the northern and southern areas where pests may or may not survive over the winter. Strikingly, the southern range grew by 3% since 1981. The models suggest the southern range will double in size by the end of the century and shift well to the north, with the other two zones shrinking. "As the climate changes, the overwintering zones are likely to shift northward,"

Nitrous oxide emissions from Corn Belt soils spike when soils freeze and thaw - Nitrous oxide may be much less abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, but as a greenhouse gas, it's a doozy. With a potency 300 times greater than CO2, nitrous oxide's warming potential, especially via agriculture, demands attention. University of Illinois and University of Minnesota researchers are answering the call. In a new study, they document an overlooked but crucial timeframe for nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in U.S. Midwest agricultural systems: the non-growing season. "Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils have mostly been studied during the growing season. Previous research shows non-growing season N2O emissions can contribute up to 70–90% of annual emissions in some years, but it's not clear how accurate that range is for the Midwest or what processes and management practices contribute to those emissions in the fall and winter," says Yufeng Yang, the study's lead author and doctoral student at U of M. Yang and his co-authors used a computer simulation model known as ecosys to determine the hotspots and "hot moments" for N2O emissions across the Midwest. Specifically, they teased out the climate and environmental factors contributing to N2O emissions on a county-by-county basis during non-growing seasons between 2001 and 2020. They also looked at the effects of fertilizer application timing and nitrification inhibitors. For context, soil N2O emissions are the result of microbial processes converting nitrogen from one form to another. Environmental conditions, such as the amount of moisture and oxygen in the soil, soil temperature, or the amount of snowpack on the soil surface, affect how much and how quickly microbes can metabolize nitrogen, as well as the ability of gaseous nitrogen products to be released into the atmosphere. The ecosys model detected these environmental drivers across the region, highlighting greater emissions in counties with more than 12 inches of non-growing season precipitation. But the researchers looked for even more detail to explain the pattern. "More intensive freezing caused by decreased air temperature was the dominant driver leading to increased non-growing season N2O emissions in the southeastern Midwest. In the northwest, increased precipitation and increased air temperature during thawing cycles were the key drivers enhancing non-growing season N2O production," Yang says. The long-term outlook for these regional differences may shift under a changing climate, however. Yang simulated future climate scenarios and found less freezing and thawing, potentially dampening the spikes that currently occur under these conditions. The team also found the effects of nitrogen fertilizer application timing also varied by county. Generally, emissions were greater under fall application than spring application. "Results suggest that shifting fall application to spring application and applying nitrification inhibitors at either time point can greatly reduce annual N2O emissions at the regional scale, and can reduce nitrogen leaching as well," says study co-author Ziyi Li, doctoral researcher studying under Guan at U of I. But that effect wasn't universal. Fields in the west of the study area saw fewer emissions with fall application. "Scientists always suggest switching to spring fertilizer application, but it's not a black and white story. Our model enables farmers to receive targeted recommendations specific to their fields,"

Large parts of Amazon may never recover, major study says -- Environmental destruction in parts of the Amazon is so complete that swathes of the rainforest have reached tipping point and might never be able to recover, a major study carried out by scientists and Indigenous organisations has found.“The tipping point is not a future scenario but rather a stage already present in some areas of the region,” the report concludes. “Brazil and Bolivia concentrate 90% of all combined deforestation and degradation. As a result, savannizationis already taking place in both countries.”Scientists from the Amazonian Network of Georeferenced Socio-environmental Information (RAISG) worked with with the Coordinator of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin (Coica) to produce the study, Amazonia Against the Clock, one of the biggest so far, covering all nine of the nations that contain parts of the Amazon. It found that only two of the nine, tiny Suriname and French Guiana, have at least half their forests still perfectly intact. In other countries, there is between 26% and 43% of forests perfectly intact, while between 2% and 25% of rainforest has been lost, with degradation of some remaining forest. Amazonian Indigenous organisations representing 511 nations and allies are calling for a global pact for the permanent protection of 80% of the Amazon by 2025. The 80% target is a massive challenge given that only 74% of the original forest remains. Urgent action is needed not only to protect the forest still standing but also to restore degraded land and get back to that 80% level. Alicia Guzmán, an Ecuadorian scientist who coordinated the report, said giving Indigenous groups stewardship of more land – and crucially, providing state protection for it and removing legal loopholes that allow extractive industries in – was the surest way to guarantee preservation. Almost half the Amazon has been designated either a protected area or Indigenous territory, and only 14% of all deforestation takes place there. Currently, about 100m hectares of Indigenous land are under dispute or awaiting formal government recognition. “Having Indigenous people in the decision-making process means we count on the knowledge of those who know most about the forest,” said Guzmán. “And they need budgets.”They also need their land to be safeguarded from land-grabbers and extractive industries. Mining is one of the growing threats, with protected areas and Indigenous land among the areas most coveted by prospectors. Much of the mining is clandestine and illegal but around half in protected areas is done legally, and scientists called on governments to reject or revoke mining permits.Oil is another threat, particularly in Ecuador, the source of 89% of all the crude exported from the region.Oil blocks cover 9.4 % of the Amazon’s surface and 43% of them are in protected areas and Indigenous land. More than half the Ecuadorian Amazon is designated as an oil block, the report said, and the portions in Peru (31%),Bolivia (29%) and Colombia (28%) are also worrying.Of even greater concern is farming. Agriculture is responsible for 84% of deforestation, and the amount of land given over to farming has tripled since 1985, according to the report. Brazil is one of the world’s main food exporters, with soy, beef and grains feeding large parts of the world and bringing in billions of dollars each year.

Drumming Chimpanzees Have Unique ‘Signatures' – -- It turns out that humans aren’t the only animals who pound out beats to express themselves. A new study published in Animal Behavior Tuesday found that male chimpanzees in Uganda’s Budongo Forest use “individual drumming ‘signatures’” when they drum on the buttress roots of trees, so much so that researchers could compare different chimps to famous human rockstars. “Tristan — the John Bonham of the forest — makes very fast drums with many evenly separated beats,” study lead author and University of Vienna Ph.D. student Vesta Eleuteri told AFP, referring to the drummer with Led Zeppelin. The researchers observed chimpanzees in the Waibira community as they drummed on the buttress roots oftrees.“If you hit the roots really hard, it resonates and makes this big deep, booming sound that travels through the forest,” study co-author Dr. Catherine Hobaiter of the University of St. Andrews told BBC Radio 4’s Inside Science programme, as BBC News reported. The sound can travel for up to one kilometer (approximately 0.6 miles) and is accompanied by a vocalization unique to chimpanzees known as a “pant hoot,” the study authors explained. The chimpanzees typically drum with their feet, according to AFP, but do use their hands as well, turning the tree root into a full drum kit. The team sought to learn more about these chimp drum circles by recording the stylings of seven male chimps and noting how long they paused between beats. Soon, the researchers discovered that the different chimps would make unique sounds. Some of them, like Tristan, sounded more like rock drummers while others favored a more syncopated, jazzy style.“I was surprised that I was able to recognise who was drumming after just a few weeks in the forest,” Eleuteri told BBC News. “But their drumming rhythms are so distinctive that it’s easy to pick up on them.”

Unrelenting September heat wave grips California and western United States - — California and the western United States are immersed in a historically severe September heat wave that is predicted to intensify early this week. The record-breaking temperatures are stressing power grids, fueling fires and endangering health.The prolonged heat wave began on Aug. 30 and is forecast to peak on Monday and Tuesday before gradually easing during the second half of the week. Dozens of high temperature records have already been broken from California to Montana and dozens more are forecast.On Saturday, numerous cities in the Intermountain West endured their highest temperatures on record not only for Sept. 3 but for the entire month. Salt Lake City (which hit 103 degrees), Pocatello, Idaho, (102 degrees), and Great Falls, Mont. (102 degrees) were among them.“This is the worst September heat wave in Western USA history no doubt,” tweeted Maximiliano Herrera, a world weather historian, on Saturday night.In Death Valley, Calif., the temperature has topped 120 degrees on five straight days, and is predicted to come close to the world record September temperature of 126 degrees Tuesday. Climate scientists have found human-caused climate change is increasing the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves such as this one. Nearly 50 million people are under excessive heat warnings or heat advisories through the early part of the week from California to Idaho.The punishing heat has fueled numerous fast-moving fires. In far northern California, near the town of Weed, firefighters are battling the Mill and nearby Mountain fires. The Mill Fire, which was 25 percent contained Saturday evening, destroyed 50 structures, prompted evacuations and injured multiple people. Both fires started on Friday.The Route Fire, which erupted Wednesday east of Los Angeles, burned more than 5,200 acres and at least eight firefighters suffered heat-related injuries battling the flames. By Sunday morning the blaze was 87 percent contained. Numerous fires have also erupted in Oregon, whose billowing smoke plumes could be seen from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite on Saturday. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) declared a state of emergency a week ago due to the fire threat.In the coming days some of the most excessive heat is forecast in California’s Central Valley. Sacramento has already reached the century mark four days in a row and is forecast to see six more. The National Weather Service says it has a 67 percent chance to match its September record of 109 degrees on Tuesday.People who have to work outdoors during the heat wave are at particular risk, and California Department of Industrial Relations issued an advisory earlier in the week reminding employers of their legal obligation to protect workers by providing adequate water, shade and rest.

Punishing heat wave in West sets records, fuels fires -Nearly 50 million Americans are under alerts through Labor Day weekend because of a prolonged heat wave that has already set dozens of records throughout the West.The “dangerous” heat wave, which began Tuesday, is taxing power grids, fueling fast-moving fires and posing a threat to homeless, elderly and other vulnerable people. Not expected to relent until the middle of next week, it’s an episode notable for its intensity, duration and coverage.Since Tuesday, high temperatures over 100 degrees have scorched areas from Southern California to Montana, including record highs of 111 degrees in Fresno, Calif., on Friday, 102 in Salt Lake City on Thursday, 112 in Burbank, Calif., on Wednesday, and 100 in Portland, Ore., on Tuesday. Death Valley, Calif., soared to 124 both Thursday and Friday. The heat even surged into Canada on Friday, where the village of Lytton set a September record for British Columbia of 103.3 degrees (39.6 Celsius). Dozens more records are expected to fall through the middle of next week. California’s populous Central Valley is expected to see record-challenging highs between 98 and 113 degrees for the next five days. The state’s grid operator, California ISO, is calling for customers to voluntarily conserve electricity between 4 and 9 p.m. Saturday — the fourth day in a row to feature a Flex Alert. California ISO is also asking residents to “precool” their homes by setting the thermostat to 72 degrees in the morning, and then raising it to 78 degrees after 4 p.m. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has declared a state of emergency to free up state resources to address the extreme heat. The proclamation notes that, by Monday, energy demand could exceed 48,000 megawatts, the greatest load of the year. Scores of heat records have been set since Tuesday, and many more are in jeopardy over the coming days. Here’s a look at some of the new records — most are daily record highs (for calendar dates) but a few, where noted, are more significant monthly records:

• Redmond, Ore., on Friday set a record high for September, hitting 106 degrees.
• Fresno, Calif., set a (daily) record high of 111 on Friday.
• Hanford, Calif., hit a record high of 109 degrees on Friday. On Thursday, it hit 105, tying a record set in 2017.
• Death Valley, Calif., set a record high of 124 Friday. It also hit a record of 124 on Thursday and 123 on Wednesday.
• Reno, Nev., hit record highs of 102 on Friday, and 100 on Wednesday and Thursday. The 102 degrees on Friday tied the September monthly record high.
• Boise, Idaho, tied a record high of 101 Friday.
• Missoula, Mont., hit a record high of 99 degrees Wednesday, and tied its record high of 97 on Friday.
• Salt Lake City established a September record high on Thursday after hitting 102 degrees. The previous record was 100 degrees. On Friday, it set a Sept. 2 record high of 100, the 29th day this year to reach 100 degrees in the Utah capital; the previous record was 21 times last year

Temperatures smash records in US west as brutal heatwave continues - A brutal heatwave enveloping the US west smashed records on Tuesday, as high temperatures and historic energy use strained California’s grid to the brink of its capacity and spurred fire behavior across the state. Western states are struggling through one of the hottest and longest September heatwaves on record. Temperatures began soaring last week and reached records in various parts of the region. California’s state capital of Sacramento on Tuesday hit an all-time high of 116F (47C), breaking a 97-year-old record. Six places in the San Francisco Bay Area and central coast set all-time record maximum temperatures, including Santa Rosa, with 115F (46C). In neighboring Nevada, Reno’s 106F (41C) on Tuesday was its hottest day ever recorded in September and smashed the previous record for the date, 96F (36C) in 1944. It came within two degrees of the all-time high for any day or month of 108F (42C), set in July 2002 and equaled in July 2007, according to the National Weather Service. In Salt Lake City, at an elevation of more than 4,000ft (1,219 meters), temperatures were about 20 degrees higher than normal, hitting 105F (41C) on Tuesday, the hottest September day recorded going back to 1874. On Wednesday, Utah’s capital hit 107F (42C), tying for the all-time record. The National Weather Service (NWS) warned that dangerous heat could continue through Friday. In California, the grueling heatwave caused officials to warn on Tuesday that demand for electricity, some of it from people cranking up the air conditioning, might outstrip supply. The California Independent System Operator (Caiso), which oversees the electrical grid, issued a stage three emergency power alert, one step below ordering utilities to start rotating outages to ease the strain on the system. “This is an extraordinary heat event we are experiencing, and the efforts by consumers to lean in and reduce their energy use after 4pm are absolutely essential,” Just before 6pm on Tuesday, an energy emergency alert rang out on cellphones across California prompting an abrupt drop in usage as residents unplugged and conserved. The grid was ultimately able to withstand this perilous stress test, even though the peak electricity demand hit 52,061 megawatts, far above the previous high of 50,270 megawatts set on 24 July 2006.

Historic, unforgiving Western heat wave is peaking and crushing records - A historically severe September heat wave is baking the West, breaking hundreds of records, posing a danger to public health and pushing California’s power grid to the limit. Some records have been shattered by wide margins as the scorching air mass exacerbates the fire danger in the drought-stricken region. 10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint After San Jose and Sacramento soared to all-time records of 109 and 116 degrees Tuesday afternoon, California’s Independent System Operator (ISO) said the state’s electricity supplies were running low. It warned consumers on Tuesday evening that “rotating power outages are now possible” and raised its Energy Emergency Alert to Level 3. Nearly three hours after the alert was issued, California ISO said it was ending the alert after stability had been maintained, in large part due to consumers conserving power. The operator said it had not needed to cut power to any customers during the alert. The power grid hit a peak demand of 52,061 megawatts Tuesday evening, “a new all-time record,” California ISO said, surpassing its previous record of 50,270 megawatts on July 24, 2004. The ISO urged residents to “precool” their homes to 72 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, and then turn the thermostat to 78 degrees during peak demand hours between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. It has called for such reductions on seven straight days. The heat taxing the state’s power grid is historic for both its duration and intensity, evidenced by the continued toppling of long-standing monthly and all-time records. “This will be essentially the worst September heat wave on record, certainly in Northern California and arguably for the state overall,” “By some metrics, it might be one of the worst heat waves on record, period, in any month, given its duration and its extreme magnitude, especially in Northern California and especially in the Sacramento region.” Forty-two million Americans are under excessive heat warnings, including across most of California, northeast Arizona and adjacent southern Nevada. The Great Basin, southern Idaho and western Utah are under heat advisories. “Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat-related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities,” wrote the National Weather Service. “[There is a] very high risk of heat stress or illness for the entire population.” The excessive heat is also fueling the risk of fast-moving fires. Red-flag warnings — connoting dangerous fire weather — encapsulate the entirety of Montana in addition to northern Idaho, much of Oregon, and northern and eastern Washington. A number of large wildfires have erupted over the past week in California, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. The fast-moving Mill Fire, which erupted Friday in Northern California, killed two people and injured three. On Monday, two people died and another was injured by the Fairview Fire, which started near the city of Hemet, which is about 75 miles southeast of Los Angeles in Riverside County.

California's Power Grid Turmoil Spurs Diesel Demand For Generators - A record-setting heat wave pushed California's power grid to the limit this week as California Independent System Operator (CAISO) called for customers to limit their electricity usage or risk widespread power blackouts. Fear of power rationing led top power consumers, such as hospitals, data centers, and manufacturing plants, to fill up their diesel storage tanks to ensure generators had enough fuel to prepare for future brownouts and blackouts, according to Bloomberg, citing fuel distributors in the state. The move to top off the tanks of diesel generators helped push supplies at storage facilities across the state to the lowest levels since 2019 -- making the fuel primarily used in industrial applications even more scarce, resulting in higher prices. "The buying spree comes as the state endures a record-breaking heat wave that's pushed the electricity system to the brink. California on Wednesday declared another power-grid emergency after managing to avoid rolling blackouts on Monday and Tuesday," Bloomberg noted. And it wasn't just commercial customers preparing generators for a grid-down situation. Residential customers, especially ones with Teslas, were filling up their gas-powered generators this week to ensure they had on-demand power to charge their EVs. Californians are learning the hard way after politicians and unelected officials spent years decarbonizing the grid by decommissioning fossil fuel power generators for unreliable solar and wind while ignoring nuclear has made the state's grid susceptible to failure during peak demand hours. And somehow, the state wants to ban new sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Instead of unreliable green energy sources, perhaps nuclear is the answer for California's grid troubles.

Both GOP and Dems see vindication in Calif. grid misery - Congressional Republicans see this week’s grid troubles in California as vindication for their energy policies.And so do Democrats.California is suffering through a record-shattering heat wave this week, with triple-digit temperatures resulting in a shaky grid and warnings from state officials to conserve. Nevada leaders also called for conservation, worried about overtaxing the West’s electricity network.Republicans saw the chance to revisit their summerlong message blaming such woes on President Joe Biden and Democrats’ green energy policies. The GOP sees the line of attack as potent ahead of the midterms.“California’s love affair with fickle, unreliable green energy could force its residents to put up with rolling blackouts just to conform to wealthy liberals’ preferences,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a Thursday floor speech. “The government had to send out an emergency message begging citizens to ration power.”Democrats accurately pointed out that the state didn’t experience any blackouts and said it was a victory for renewable energy.“I’m sorry to disappoint Mitch McConnell, but we kept the lights on in California once again,” said Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). For Senate Republicans, the grid troubles have presented the perfect opportunity to focus on their “Biden blackout” messaging (E&E Daily, Aug. 9).All summer, they have used as a jumping off point a report from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. warning of potential energy irregularities due to a lack of transmission capacity and heat waves brought on by climate change.Those warnings haven’t really panned out, though California came close to implementing rolling blackouts Tuesday (Energywire, Sept. 8). It was enough to get Republicans going.They pointed to a pair of events in California. Last month, a state board adopted a rule barring the sale of gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035 (Climatewire, Aug. 26). Last week, the state advised electric vehicle owners not to charge their vehicles during peak demand.Conservatives have long argued — and experts largely agree — that grids aren’t currently prepared to handle a future influx of electric vehicles, or even the numbers on the road today. “I think it’s ironic that the zealots in California announced they’re banning gasoline automobiles; and at the same time, the Democrat governors are instructing people, ‘Don’t charge your electric vehicles because we can’t keep the lights on,'” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told E&E News.

As forests go up in smoke, so will California's climate plan - When lightning ignited the bone-dry foothills of the Sierra Nevada last year, forestry crews fanned out across Sequoia National Park to defend an ancient grove of California redwoods from wildfire. As smoke wafted through a forest of giant sequoias, a dozen crew members surrounded the gargantuan, 36-foot-wide trunk of General Sherman—the world's largest living tree—and wrapped its base with massive sheets of fire-resistant fabric. The rescue was a stark acknowledgment that California wildfires are burning faster and hotter than ever before, and now threaten a species that had adapted comfortably to the fires of a previous age. "I think if you told someone 30 years ago that we were going to do that they would have thought you're insane. I mean, the bark on the trees is 12 to 18 inches thick," Now, with recent fires having killed more than 13% of all giant sequoias—a species that grows only in California's western Sierra—scientists and officials are growing increasingly concerned that the state is nearing a tipping point in which its forests emit more climate-warming carbon dioxide than they absorb. Citing an ambitious plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2045, the California Air Resources Board is urging state and federal authorities to drastically increase the thinning and treatment of forests that have become dangerously overgrown with flammable vegetation. While California's forests and grasslands absorb carbon dioxide during photosynthesis—helping to offset greenhouse gas emissions from human activity—burned forests reduce that storage capacity, or carbon stock. In 2020 alone, California wildfires released more carbon dioxide than all industrial facilities statewide. "If those forests are going up in smoke, then who's benefiting from them?" "Carbon just goes back into the atmosphere." Scientists estimate that about 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide are encased in California's forests, shrubs, grasses and other vegetation. Giant sequoias, because of their supernatural size and longevity, store more carbon dioxide per acre than any tree in the world, and some have been doing so for thousands of years. But California's carbon stock is projected to decline over the next two decades as more vegetation dies due to drought, excessive heat and wildfire. Under a worst-case climate scenario, forests could switch from being a vast repository of carbon to a significant source of emissions by midcentury, Dass said.

NYC Mapping Project Shows How Heat Exposure Impacts Lower Income Neighborhoods - New York City’s South Bronx is eight degrees Fahrenheit hotter than its Upper East and West sides, two of its wealthiest neighborhoods that sit on either side of Central Park.That stark reminder of the relationship between income inequality and exposure to high heat is the result of the first-ever street-by-street analysis of temperature in New York City, conducted with the help of citizen scientistswho actually have to live with the data they recorded.“The variation in temperature is stark,” lead investigator Liv Yoon told The Guardian. “The built environment really matters on how heat manifests and what people feel.”Scientists have long known that cities are hotter than rural areas. In fact, there is even a name for this phenomenon: the urban heat island effect (UHIE), according to Heat Story NYC, where the results of the mapping are published. The effect is caused by various factors including the fact that urban building materials like concrete and brick tend to absorb heat and cities have more vehicles and infrastructure that emit carbon as well as lots of tall buildings standing close together. Not everyone living in a city experiences that higher heat equally, however. Because of a long history of discrimination and redlining, minority and low-income populations tend to live in less desirable neighborhoods with fewer trees and suffer from preexisting health conditions that make them more vulnerable when temperatures rise. Half of the New Yorkers who died from heat-related causes between 2000 and 2012 were Black and half lived in low-income neighborhoods, The New York Times reported. All of this is well known, but to better illustrate the relationship between heat exposure and inequality, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launched its NOAA Urban Heat Island Mapping Campaigns in 2017, working with Climate Adaptation Planning and Analytics (CAPA) Strategies to design citizen science projects to map heat in cities across the U.S.“There’s a lot of complexity around how temperatures vary,” NASA remote-sensing specialist and director of Columbia University’s Environmental Justice and Climate Just Cities director Christian Braneon told E&E News. “It really has to do with the urban form.”The New York campaign took place on July 24, 2021 with the help of South Bronx Unite, a grassroots organization in the neighborhood, according to Heat Story NYC.

Online ‘Hate Speech’ Increases With Extreme Temperatures, Study Finds - -- Extreme temperatures can lead to an increase in online “hate speech,” according to a new study by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).The United Nations defines hate speech as “any kind of communication in speech, writing or behaviour, that attacks or uses pejorative or discriminatory language with reference to a person or a group on the basis of… their religion, ethnicity, nationality, race, colour, descent, gender or other identity factor,” which was the definition used by the researchers for the study.In the study, the research team looked at the effect temperature has on hate speech on Twitter and interpreted the results through the lens of the relationships between human behavior, climate change and mental health.“We found that both the absolute number and the share of hate tweets rise outside a climate comfort zone. People tend to show a more aggressive online behavior when it’s either too cold or too hot outside,” said scientist at PIK and lead author of the study Annika Stechemesser, as The Guardian reported.The study, “Temperature impacts on hate speech online: evidence from 4 billion geolocated tweets from the USA,” was published in the journal The Lancet Planetary Health.The researchers analyzed around four billion geolocated tweets and found misogynist, homophobic and racist tweets increased as much as 22 percent when temperatures reached more than 107.6 degrees Fahrenheit, reported The Guardian. Hate speech went up as much as 12 percent when temperatures fell to less than 26.6 degrees Fahrenheit.Between 2014 and 2020, the scientists used machine-learning to pinpoint about 75 million tweets that contained hate speech in 773 cities in the U.S. They then compared the data to local temperature variations. The team found that the least number of hate speech tweets happened in temperatures ranging from 59 to 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit. However, when the mercury was less than 53.6 degrees Fahrenheit or more than 69.8 degrees Fahrenheit, the number of hate tweets started to increase.

Reclamation: Upper Basin reservoirs insufficient to save Lake Powell - Flaming Gorge Reservoir, which Bureau of Reclamation officials have used twice during the past two years to add water to the rapidly deteriorating Colorado River system, likely has only enough water left for two more emergency releases, according reclamation officials. Last summer, the Bureau of Reclamation ordered the release of 125,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge, located in the northeast corner of Utah and the southwest corner of Wyoming, to help keep Lake Powell from falling too low to produce power. Then, earlier this summer, Reclamation announced that it would release another 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge and hold back 480,000 acre-feet in Powell instead of releasing it downstream to Lake Mead, as it would normally do. Another 30,000 acre-feet was released from Colorado’s Blue Mesa Reservoir last summer, which along with Flaming Gorge, New Mexico’s Navajo, and Powell itself, was supposed to act as a critical savings account for the river system. The Colorado River Basin, which is divided into two regions, includes seven states: Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming make up the Upper Basin, while Arizona, California and Nevada comprise the Lower Basin. Lake Powell serves as the largest water bank for the Upper Basin, while Lake Mead holds water for the Lower Basin states. But as drought and climate change continue to sap the Colorado River, even the water in the Upper Basin’s high elevation storage ponds, namely Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo, isn’t enough to protect the larger system, and those kinds of releases can’t go on indefinitely, said Jim Prairie, a hydrologic engineer with Reclamation. “We could release from Flaming Gorge maybe two more times,” Prairie said at a conference convened by the Colorado Water Congress last week. And Blue Mesa and Navajo, both now at less than 50% of capacity, are considered too low to provide much, if any, additional relief. It is analyses like these that prompted Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton in June to order the seven basin states to find ways to come up with 2 million to 4 million acre-feet of water next year, to inject into the reservoirs to keep them full enough to generate hydropower and supply water. That means determining which water users and states are going to cut back use. Tensions are rising as the federal government and the states continue to fail in their efforts to develop a concrete plan that will cut water use enough to come up with that 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. “If we failed at anything in the drought contingency planning (done in 2019) it is that our vision was insufficiently dark,” said Wayne Pullan, director of Reclamation’s Upper Colorado Region. As the freefall on the river continues, veteran federal hydrologists and engineers at Reclamation are scrambling to come up with new ways to forecast what is going to happen, using, among other tools, a stress test that is based on recent observed inflows, rather than models. Hydrologists are also using data that excludes measurements from extremely wet years back in the 1980s, and focuses instead on the most recent dry periods. Reclamation estimates that Powell will receive just 6.2 million acre-feet of water from the mountain snows in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico in 2022, using its new forecasting models. That is far below the 9.6 million acre-foot average, a figure based on a 30-year average that includes extremely wet periods.

Jackson floods, California bakes- This week, the nation is getting a jarring reminder that extreme weather can imperil the infrastructure that provides our basic needs. In California, a record-shattering heat wave is pushing the power grid to its limit. In Jackson, Miss., more than 150,000 people are still suffering from the impacts of torrential rainfall that left most of the city without running water. Heat waves are fueled by increasing temperatures, warmer oceans and drier soils — and when they hit, the grid struggles to keep up. The link between a warming planet and flooding is more complex, but scientists say it's clear that as sea levels rise, flooding will increasingly threaten vulnerable infrastructure. Flash floods, which are unexpected and particularly destructive, will also getshorter but bigger, as warmer temperatures cause evaporation that increases moisture in the atmosphere.Those with the fewest resources are hit the hardest. Today, California is bracing for potential rolling blackouts, as temperatures smash previously held records (Sacramento, for example, could hit an all-time high of 115 degrees Fahrenheit). The need for cooling sends energy demand soaring beyond what the state's grid can handle, a problem that has triggered repeated calls for residents to keep their thermostats at or above a balmy 78 degrees. At least 1,300 people die a year in the U.S. due to extreme heat — the largest weather-related killer in the country — though research suggests those numbers are likely undercounted. In addition to directly causing dehydration or heat stroke, extreme heat can also exacerbate underlying health problems, further imperiling the most vulnerable. People without access to consistent housing or air conditioning are also disproportionately affected. In Jackson, water pressure has been restored after heavy rains and flooding hit an already-damaged water treatment plant, leaving residents without enough water to brush their teeth or flush the toilet for days. Residents remain under a boil-water advisory, and officials are not sure when the water will be safe to drink. The crisis comes after years of neglect and deferred maintenance of large water systems in Black and low-income communities, a predicament all too familiar for many across the United States, writes reporter Hannah Northey. President Joe Biden has pledged to funnel money into cities like Jackson that have faced decades of disproportionate pollution and inequity. But residents and advocates say Democratic-controlled Jackson is merely the latest majority-Black city struggling to secure its fair share of spending in Republican-dominated states, writes reporter Zack Colman.

Rhode Island streets turn to rivers amid nearly 11 inches of rain ---Drought-busting heavy rain continues to pour down Tuesday across parts of the Northeast, a day after substantial rainfall inundated major highways, requiring water rescues across the region as roofs collapsed and water spilled into college dorms. More than 10 inches of rain fell just south of Providence, R.I., on Monday, causing the National Weather Service to issue a flash flood warning. Storms passing over the same areas repeatedly dumped rain for hours, turning city streets into rivers. A dramatic scene developed on Interstate 95, where flooding rains pooled under a bridge, causing a massive traffic backup on the busy highway. Local reporters said five cars were stuck in the flood, forcing passengers to hop onto the highway’s divider to escape the rising waters. As the water continued to pool up, police officers worked hard to inch the traffic jam backward to keep more people out of the floodwaters. Flood damage was reported across the city. Heavy rains appeared to cause at least one building to collapse, with debris pouring into the street. On another road, the strength of the floodwaters appeared to rip up the asphalt, with chunks of pavement ending up wedged under parked vehicles. At Brown University in Providence, about 30 students were temporarily displaced when floodwaters infiltrated their dorm’s first floor, according to local affiliate WPRI. Videos shared on social media showed students walking through dark and flooded hallways. As flooding worsened Monday afternoon, Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) called for all residents to “avoid all unnecessary travel,” saying that teams were working to unclog drains and reopen highways. Deluges were also reported outside Providence, as heavy rains flooded intersections in Cranston, R.I., leaving the streets in the suburb looking more like raging rivers. As of Tuesday morning, Cranston had seen 10.83 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service. In Providence, as of 7 a.m. local time, 8.31 inches of rain has fallen. In Norwich, Conn., 4.6 inches of rain caused minor flooding. Social media videos showed the lower level of a parking garage inundated by several inches of water, as well as standing water piling up in the parking lot of a local shopping plaza.

Summer is ending, but climate disasters keep coming - September marks the start of a new season for meteorologists. It’s the beginning of “climatological fall” in the Northern Hemisphere — and, ostensibly, a transition to milder weather.But much of the U.S. is still baking, burning, withering or swimming.It’s the reality of life on a warming planet. Research suggests that the hottest part of the year is lengthening and the risk of extreme heat, and other heat-related disasters, is rising.“We’re seeing increasing risks throughout the year as a variety of extremes increase in frequency and intensity in response to global warming,” said Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University.The dangers of the past week are plaguing the sunset of summer. Climate change, driven by a global rise of 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 150 years, is exacerbating financial losses from heavier downpours, more severe coastal storms and rising ocean levels. Entire ecosystems, like coral reefs, are being altered at lightning speed, and efforts to put the brakes on rising temperatures are mixing up global politics like a blender.Fall kicked off with an astonishing heat wave in California, shattering temperature records and straining the electrical grid (Climatewire, Sept. 7). Downtown Sacramento reached a sizzling 116 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday afternoon, smashing its previous all-time record of 114 F. San Jose hit an all-time record at 109 F. A number of other Bay Area cities recorded temperatures exceeding 110 F.Meanwhile, dozens of wildfires are raging across the Western states. As of Thursday, the National Interagency Fire Center reported 71 active fires burning across eight states. They’ve consumed nearly 500,000 acres of land.If that wasn’t enough for the beleaguered West, a Pacific hurricane is also closing in on the coast. Hurricane Kay is projected to make a rare close approach to California this weekend, threatening high winds and flash floods in its wake.All of those perils are lying on top of perhaps the biggest impact of all: a yearslong drought that refuses to release its grip on much of the western half of the country. Elsewhere in the U.S., devastating floods ushered in the month of September. North Georgia, southeastern Indiana and parts of Rhode Island were all slammed by unusually heavy rainfall and flash floods in the past week. It’s climate disasters from coast to coast. And that’s only in the U.S. On the other side of the globe, China continues to grapple with an extreme, long-lasting drought that’s gripped large swaths of the country for months now. Parts of the Middle East and North Africa have seen sizzling temperatures already breaking monthly records for September. And Greenland recently experienced a rare September melt event, one of its strongest on record (Climatewire, Sept. 8).

Climate Change Leaves Flood Maps Outdated, FEMA Says - Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Deanne Criswell said the federal government’s flood maps are outdated following a rash of disastrous floods due to climate change-induced extreme levels of rainfall, reported The Guardian. “The part that’s really difficult right now is the fact that our flood maps don’t take into account excessive rain that comes in. And we are seeing these record rainfalls that are happening,” Criswell said Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union, as Bloomberg reported.Flooding in Jackson, Mississippi, recently led to the failure of water treatment pumps, which caused 180,000 people in the capital city and its surrounding areas to be without safe drinking water.Criswell commented that the timeline for the water treatment plant being functional again is unknown, reported Bloomberg.Yesterday, Georgia was inundated with a deluge of heavy rainfall, leading to flash floods and submerged roads, The Guardian reported. As much as 12 inches at the rate of an inch an hour of rain fell, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).Due to the flash flooding, which overwhelmed the Raccoon Creek filter plant, people in Summerville were advised to boil tap water before drinking or cooking.A state of emergency was declared in Floyd and Chattooga counties by the Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. “This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation,” said the NWS, as reported by The Guardian. “Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.”’

A hurricane that just made landfall in Mexico is triggering flood concerns in parts of southern California - Hurricane Kay made landfall in Mexico, along the west coast of the central Baja California Peninsula on Thursday afternoon, triggering flooding concerns not just in that region, but in parts of California and Arizona too.Hurricane conditions were impacting the peninsula Thursday and were expected to last several hours as the storm moved along the coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. Kay had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph at the time of landfall, making it a Category 1 storm. It's expected to weaken throughout Thursday evening, the center said, but added that tropical storm conditions will spread northward.Heavy rains will drench southern California Friday -- potentially bringing several months to a year's worth of rain to a normally arid landscape. But that's not all: As the storm moves north, strong winds -- far from providing immediate relief from California's climate crisis-driven heat wave -- actually could push already record temperatures higher in some places.Flooding is also possible starting Friday in parts of southwest Arizona, the hurricane center said. Kay is expected to remain at hurricane strength until it's around 250 miles from San Diego -- something only four other storms have done since 1950, according to the National Weather Service -- before weakening as it moves toward the US West Coast.But the storm doesn't need to be strong "for this to be a major concern for Southern California," said Brandt Maxwell, a National Weather Service meteorologist in San Diego.Kay is forecast to track parallel to the Baja California peninsula through Friday, pushing what could be record-breaking amount of moisture into Southern California and Arizona. Then just shy of the US-Mexican border, it will turn westward -- away from the coast -- as it makes the closest pass to Southern California for a hurricane since 1997's Hurricane Nora. A turn to the west is expected by Saturday night, the hurricane center said.

Tropical Storm Kay breaks heat and rain records across Southern California - Tropical Storm Kay helped firefighters battling a huge fire near Hemet.According to the National Weather Service, 5 inches of rain fell in Mt. Laguna in San Diego County. Other mountain areas in San Diego including Julian got 4 inches of rain, with less than in inch falling along the coast.Several spots in Los Angeles County, including Los Angeles International Airport, Long Beach Airport and downtown L.A., saw new daily rain records, but the amounts were fairly small. Long Beach, for example, recorded 0.20 inch, breaking the old daily record of 0.02. LAX also set a new daily heat record (102 degrees) along with several other locations such as Oxnard and Santa Barbara Airport.The storm system was expected to continue affecting Southern California through the weekend, but with less rain and somewhat cooler temperatures compared with Friday. It caused scattered power outages across the region. The rains were a relief for firefighters battling the Fairview fire near Hemet, with the extra moisture saturating the area and mitigating some of the threat posed by high winds in dry conditions, said Rob Roseen, a spokesman for the Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Department.

Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year? - With rivers breaking their banks, flash flooding and glacial lakes bursting, Pakistan is experiencing its worst floods this century. At least one-third of the country is under water. Scientists say several factors have contributed to the extreme event, which has displaced some 33 million people and killed more than 1,200. Researchers say the catastrophe probably started with phenomenal heatwaves. In April and May, temperatures reached above 40 °C for prolonged periods in many places. On one sweltering day in May, the city of Jacobabad topped 51 °C. “These were not normal heatwaves — they were the worst in the world. We had the hottest place on Earth in Pakistan,” says Malik Amin Aslam, the country’s former minister for climate change, who is based in Islamabad. Warmer air can hold more moisture. So meteorologists warned earlier this year that the extreme temperatures would probably result in “above normal” levels of rain during the country’s monsoon season, from July to September, says Zia Hashmi, a water-resources engineer at the Global Change Impact Studies Centre in Islamabad, speaking in his personal capacity. The intense heat also melted glaciers in the northern mountainous regions, increasing the amount of water flowing into tributaries that eventually make their way into the Indus river, says Athar Hussain, a climate scientist at COMSATS University Islamabad. The Indus is Pakistan’s largest river, and runs the length of the country from north to south, feeding towns, cities and large swathes of agricultural land along the way. It isn’t clear exactly how much excess glacial melt has flowed into rivers this year, but Hashmi visited some high-altitude glaciated regions in July and noticed high flows and muddy water in the Hunza River, which feeds into the Indus. He says the mud suggests that there has been rapid melting, because fast water picks up sediment as it moves downstream. Several glacial lakes have burst through the dams of ice that normally restrain them, releasing a dangerous rush of water. The heatwaves also coincided with another extraordinary event — a depression, or a system of intense low air pressure, in the Arabian Sea, which brought heavy rain to Pakistan’s coastal provinces as early as June. “We rarely have large-scale depression systems arriving there,” says Hussain. These unusual features were then exacerbated by the early arrival of the monsoon on 30 June, which “was wetter generally over a larger region for a very prolonged period of time”, The effect is that Pakistan has received almost three times its average annual rainfall for the monsoon period so far. The southern provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan have received more than five times that average. Once on land, much of that water has nowhere to go. More than 1.2 million houses, 5,000 kilometres of road and 240 bridges have been destroyed. In Sindh, an elongated lake has formed, tens of kilometres wide, and more water will continue to pour into it, says Aslam. “The worst is not over.” Some weather agencies have also predicted that the ongoing La Niña climate event — a phenomenon that is typically associated with stronger monsoon conditions in India and Pakistan — will continue until the end of the year, says King. “It’s not a super strong link, but it probably is playing a role in enhancing the rainfall.” Human-induced global warming could also be intensifying downpours. Climate models suggest that a warmer world will contribute to more intense rainfall, says Hussain. Between 1986 and 2015, temperatures in Pakistan rose by 0.3 °C per decade — higher than the global average. Researchers and public officials also say that other factors have probably added to the devastation, including an ineffective early-warning system for floods, poor disaster management, political instability and unregulated urban development. A lack of drainage and storage infrastructure, as well as the large number of people living in flood zones, are also implicated. “These are governance issues, but they are minuscule in relation to the level of the tragedy that we are seeing occur,” says Aslam.

Climate Change: Pakistan Requires Massive Assistance to Recover From Catastrophic Floods by Riaz Haq - Pakistan is dealing with the aftermath of the worst floods in the country's history. About 33 million people in two southern provinces are homeless. Sindh is inundated with 784% of normal rainfall so far this year. Balochistan has seen 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock have been lost, over two million acres of farmland is underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan have been damaged. This is a massive humanitarian crisis. Pakistan can not deal with it alone. Pakistan's population is about 2.6% of the world population. The nation contributes less than 1% of the global carbon emissions. It lacks the resources needed to deal with the consequences of this man-made disaster. The Industrial Revolution in Europe and the United States was fueled mainly by fossil fuels such as coal and oil believed to be responsible for climate change. It will take hundreds of millions of dollars to provide immediate relief to 33 million people, followed by tens of billions of dollars in assistance to rebuild the lives and livelihoods and the infrastructure destroyed by this catastrophe. Pakistan's gross capital formation is only 15% of its GDP. Among the world’s top 20 economies by population, only Egypt has a lower rate of gross capital formation than Pakistan, according to Bloomberg. It is time for the rich industrialized to help developing nations such as Pakistan to deal with the massive impact of climate change. All Pakistanis and non-Pakistanis need to pitch in with donations to help finance immediate disaster relief activities. Beyond that, Pakistan will have to be helped by international experts to build disaster preparedness capacity. The new housing and infrastructure will have to be funded and built to ensure its resilience in future climate disasters which are likely to occur more often with greater intensity. There is an urgent need to prepare western and multi-lateral financial institutions to deal with such climate catastrophes in developing nations. Mechanisms also need to be put in place to provide and manage funding of these projects in a transparent manner.

Pakistan’s biggest lake bursts its banks, threatening further floods — The retaining wall of Pakistan’s largest lake burst on Tuesday after months of heavy rains, inundating hundreds more villages downstream and threatening to force thousands more from their homes. The Pakistani government engineered two intentional breaches of Lake Manchar’s retaining wall over the weekend in an effort to ease pressure on the structure, but an irrigation official told The Washington Post that the wall began to crack Tuesday as water levels continued to rise. A local agricultural department official confirmed the break but said it was unclear whether it occurred because of water pressure or if residents of a nearby town had damaged the wall to divert floodwaters from their area. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. “It’s not possible to fix the wall now,” the irrigation official said. He said the government is unable to protect villages in the flood path, and he estimated that families would have four to five hours to evacuate. Minister of Irrigation Jam Khan Shoro confirmed to The Post the occurrence of the new breach in the flood wall but maintained that no further evacuations would be necessary because all the downstream settlements already had been emptied. Water from the lake could be seen coursing over highways and overflowing drainage canals just north of Sehvan, threatening to cut off a key supply route to some of the country’s hardest-hit villages in Dadu and beyond. Roads leading south were lined with farmers moving their livestock to safety. Muhammad Nawaz Shahani said government vehicles drove through his village Tuesday morning using loudspeakers to order an immediate evacuation. “They told us to leave our houses at once and to only take our valuables and livestock with us,” he said. He walked with his extended family to an elevated road and then began herding his livestock in search of grazing space. By evening, the highway was packed with water buffaloes, goats and cows. Some 350 villages around the lake were inundated Tuesday, bringing water levels as high as six feet, according to the irrigation official.The Pakistani government is already struggling to respond to what has been described as a “catastrophic” crisis, and the Lake Manchar breach is likely to further impede access to those in need. Anger is growing among displaced Pakistanis, hundreds of villages remain underwater, and the people who have made it to dry land are desperately seeking shelter and relief.

Toyota, Nissan, LG Halt Production as Typhoon Hinnamnor Hits - Japanese auto giants Toyota and Nissan were poised to call a halt to production on Monday as Typhoon Hinnamnor approached its shores. The country was bracing itself for the impact of the storm with airlines cancelling flights and some companies suspending production at factories in the western part of the country. The typhoon was already pounding parts of the westernmost main island of Kyushu with heavy rain on Monday, with both rain and winds expected to worsen as the storm brushes by on Tuesday and heads towards Korea, which raised its typhoon alert level to the highest. Korean shipbuilders Hyundai Heavy Industries, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) and Samsung Heavy Industries said they would halt operations early on Tuesday. In Japan, parts of Kyushu were expected to be hit by some 300 millimetres (12 inches) of rain in the 24 hours to noon on Tuesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, also warning of strong winds and storm surges. Some 70 flights were cancelled on Monday, Japanese media said. Toyota Motor Corp said it will suspend some evening shifts at three plants in western Japan, while Nissan Motor Corp and Nissan Shatai Co subsidiaries in Fukuoka prefecture were expected to suspend production for Monday night and Tuesday daylight shifts. South Korea raised its typhoon-alert to its highest level on Monday as approaching typhoon forced flight cancellations, the suspension of some business operations and the closure of schools. A spokesperson for Korea’s LG Electronics said it would halt operations on Tuesday at its Gumi production facilities that make large OLED TVs, while steelmaker POSCO is halting operations at its production facilities including its furnaces on Tuesday, the Yonhap news agency said. SK Innovation, owner of South Korea’s top refiner SK Energy, said it asked carrier ships not to operate until the typhoon passes. Korean Air Lines and Asiana Airlines have cancelled most of their Monday flights to Jeju Island, according to their websites, while budget airlines such as Air Seoul and Jin Air have cancelled some of their flights. President Yoon Suk-yeol said he would be on emergency standby, a day after ordering authorities to do their best to minimise damage from the typhoon. Warnings have been issued in the southern cities of Gwangju, Busan, Daegu and Ulsan, as well as on Jeju, while the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters has upgraded its typhoon alert level to the highest in its four-tier system, for the first time in five years.

More than 90% of identifiable trash in North Pacific Garbage Patch comes from just six countries - A team of researchers with the Ocean Cleanup project and Wageningen University, both in the Netherlands, has found via sampling and testing that more than 90% of the identifiable trash swirling around in the North Pacific Garbage Patch (NPGP) comes from just six countries, all of which are major industrialized fishing nations. They have published their research in Scientific Reports. Prior research has shown that there is a giant island of trash floating atop the subtropical gyre in the North Pacific Ocean. Scientists have estimated that there are tens of thousands of tons of the trash, most of it plastic, covering millions of square kilometers. The existence of the NPGP has garnered a lot of headlines in recent years, though the source of the trash has not been identified—until now. In this new effort, the researchers collected, sorted and studied 6,000 pieces of trash from the NPGP. Their goal was to find its source. To that end, they looked for words printed on debris as a means of identifying a language, or identifiable symbols, including logos. The researchers found that approximately a third of their trash pieces were unidentifiable—they could not make out what sort of purposes they might have served or where they might have come from. But they did find that 26% of their haul was fishing-equipment based. They also found that plastic buoys and floats made up approximately 3% of the objects they found but took up a disproportionate amount of the mass in NPGP—21%. Researchers find over 90% of identifiable trash in North Pacific Garbage Patch come from just six countries Plastic Research at The Ocean Cleanup, analysing the items caught by System 001/B in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, looking for clues on origin based on language and country codes. Credit: The Ocean Cleanup The researchers were able to identify the country of origin for 232 objects, with the largest percentage being from Japan at 33.6%. China was next at 32.3% followed by South Korea at 9.9%. Next on the list was the U.S. at 6.5%, Taiwan at 5.6% and Canada at 4.7%. Together, these six countries accounted for over 92% of the identifiable trash found in the NPGP. The researchers also calculated that trash in the NPGP was 10 times more likely to come from fishing activities than land-based activities. They conclude that all of the top six countries identified in their work engage regularly in massive fishing operations.

Arctic lakes are vanishing in surprise climate finding - The Arctic is no stranger to loss. As the region warms nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, glaciers collapse, wildlife suffers and habitats continue to disappear at a record pace. Now, a new threat has become apparent: Arctic lakes are drying up, according to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study, led by University of Florida Department of Biology postdoctoral researcher Elizabeth Webb, flashes a new warning light on the global climate dashboard. Webb's research reveals that over the past 20 years, Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried completely across the pan-Arctic, a region spanning the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia and Alaska. The findings offer clues about why the mass drying is happening and how the loss can be slowed. The vanishing lakes act as cornerstones of the Arctic ecosystem. They provide a critical source of fresh water for local Indigenous communities and industries. Threatened and endangered species, including migratory birds and aquatic creatures, also rely on the lake habitats for survival. The lake decline comes as a surprise. Scientists had predicted that climate change would initially expand lakes across the tundra, due to land surface changes resulting from melting ground ice, with eventual drying in the mid-21st or 22nd century. Instead, it appears that thawing permafrost, the frozen soil that blankets the Arctic, may drain lakes and outweigh this expansion effect, says Webb. The team theorized that thawing permafrost may decrease lake area by creating drainage channels and increasing soil erosion into the lakes. "Our findings suggest that permafrost thaw is occurring even faster than we as a community had anticipated," Webb said. "It also indicates that the region is likely on a trajectory toward more landscape-scale drainage in the future." In addition to rising temperatures, the study also revealed that increases in autumn rainfall cause permafrost degradation and lake drainage. "It might seem counterintuitive that increasing rainfall reduces surface water," said Jeremy Lichstein, Webb's advisor and a co-author of the study. "But it turns out the physical explanation was already in the scientific literature: rainwater carries heat into the soil and accelerates permafrost thaw, which can open up underground channels that drain the surface."

A ‘doomsday glacier’ the size of Florida is disintegrating faster than thought -- A large glacier in Antarctica that could raise sea levels several feet is disintegrating faster than last predicted, according to a new study published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience. The Thwaites Glacier — dubbed the “doomsday glacier” because scientists estimate that without it and its supporting ice shelves, sea levels could rise more than 3 to 10 feet — lies in the western part of the continent. After recently mapping it in high-resolution, a group of international researchers found that the glacial expanse experienced a phase of “rapid retreat” sometime in the past two centuries — over a duration of less than six months. According to a news release accompanying the study, researchers concluded that the glacier had “lost contact with a seabed ridge” and is now retreating at a speed of 1.3 miles per year — a rate double what they predicted between 2011 and 2019. Unlike some other glaciers that are connected to dry land, Thwaites is grounded in the seabed, making it more vulnerable to warming waters as a result of human-induced climate change. Thwaites already accounts for about 4 percent of annual sea level rise. “You can’t take away Thwaites and leave the rest of Antarctica intact,” said Alastair Graham, a marine geologist at the University of South Florida and the co-author of the study, in a phone interview. He described the consequences of losing Thwaites “existential.” According to the United Nations, more than 40 percent of the world’s human population lives within 60 miles of the coast — areas that will be hit hard by rising tides. “Thwaites is really holding on today by its fingernails, and we should expect to see big changes over small time scales in the future — even from one year to the next — once the glacier retreats beyond a shallow ridge in its bed,” said the British Antarctic Survey’s Robert Larter, a co-author of the study. Satellite images taken late last year revealed that an ice shelf used to stabilize the eastern portion of the Thwaites Glacier showed signs of cracking — what scientists say could lead to a “spiderweb” effect across the entire wedge, if hit with strong winds, according to The Washington Post.

Rapidly Retreating Doomsday Glacier Clinging 'By Its Fingernails': Study - New research unveiled Monday suggests that the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier—an enormous ice mass with the potential to trigger catastrophic sea level rise—could retreat far more quickly in the coming years than scientists previously anticipated as fossil fuel-driven planetary warming continues to accelerate.Dubbed the "Doomsday Glacier," Thwaites has been the subject of scientific concern for decades given its immensity—it is roughly the size of the U.S. state of Florida and, if melting continues at the current pace, it could raise global sea levels by 11 feet or more.But a new study published in Nature Geoscience offers a first-of-its-kind look at the body's transformation over time, finding that "sustained pulses of rapid retreat have occurred at Thwaites Glacier in the past two centuries.""Over a duration of 5.5 months, Thwaites' grounding zone retreated at a rate of >2.1 km per year—twice the rate observed by satellite at the fastest retreating part of the grounding zone between 2011 and 2019," the analysis notes. "Similar rapid retreat pulses are likely to occur in the near future when the grounding zone migrates back off stabilizing high points on the sea floor."Robert Larter, a marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey, saidMonday that the research shows Thwaites "is really holding on today by its fingernails, and we should expect to see big changes over small timescales in the future—even from one year to the next—once the glacier retreats beyond a shallow ridge in its bed."

Very strong and shallow M6.6 earthquake hits Sichuan, China - A very strong earthquake registered by the USGS as M6.6 hit western Sichuan, China at 04:52 UTC (12:52 local time) on September 5, 2022. The agency is reporting a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). EMSC is reporting the same magnitude and depth. The China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) is reporting M6.8 at a depth of 16 km (10 miles). The epicenter was located 43.7 km (27.1 miles) SE of Kangding (population 100 000), 137.2 km (85.3 miles) SW of Linqiong (population 55 587), and 201.2 km (125 miles) WSW Chengdu (population 7 415 590), Sichuan, China. 20 000 people are estimated to have felt very strong shaking, 119 000 strong, and 1 304 000 light. The USGS issued a Yellow alert for shaking-related fatalities. Some casualties are possible. An Orange alert was issued for economic losses. Significant damage is likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of China. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with mud construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses. According to the CCTV, at least 21 people have been killed, of which 14 people in Shimian County and 7 in Luding County. More than 30 people were injured. The quake caused landslides, damaged homes and roads, as well as water and electricity supply and telecommunications. One landslide blocked a rural highway, the Ministry of Emergency Management said. Sichuan province has activated the second-highest level of emergency response for the earthquake and more rescue forces are rushing to the epicenter area.

China quake: Deadly tremor rocks Sichuan city in lockdown - - At least 46 people have been killed after a 6.6 magnitude earthquake hit southwestern China, state media said. The quake struck at 13:00 local time (05:00 GMT) in Sichuan province at a depth of 10km (6 miles). The impact severed telecommunications lines and triggered mountain landslides that caused "serious damage", local media reports say. Some 21 million people in Sichuan's capital Chengdu were last week ordered to stay at home because of Covid rules. The epicentre of the quake was at Luding, a town in a remote mountain region located about 226km southwest of Chengdu, according to the China Earthquake Networks Centre. State broadcaster CCTV said 17 people died in the city of Ya'an, while 29 deaths were reported in the neighbouring prefecture of Ganzi. Tremors shook buildings in Chengdu and the neighbouring mega-city of Chongqing, leaving roads blocked and cutting communication lines in areas home to more than 10,000 residents. The shocks also forced some power stations to shut down in the areas of Garze and Ya'an, CCTV said. More than 500 rescue personnel have been despatched to the epicentre, while workers laboured to clear roadblocks caused by landslides, according to state broadcaster CGTN. Chengdu residents reported seeing people running out of their high-rise apartments in a panic after receiving earthquake alerts on their phones. "There were many people who were so terrified they started crying," When the shaking began, "all the dogs started barking. It was really quite scary". "But because Chengdu is currently under epidemic management, people aren't allowed to leave their residential compounds, so many of them rushed out into their courtyards." On Friday, Chengdu became the latest city to be locked down by Chinese authorities, in an attempt to stem the rise in Covid cases. The latest disaster comes months after a 6.1-magnitude earthquake tore through Sichuan in June. Sichuan is a earthquake-prone area, as it lies along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. The earthquake also called into memory an 8.0-magnitude quake which hit Wenchuan county in northwest Sichuan in 2008, which killed 70,000 and caused widespread destruction.

 New Study More Than Triples Estimated Costs of Climate Change Damages -A peer-reviewed analysis by two dozen experts more than triples – from $51 per ton of carbon dioxide to $185 per ton – the federal government’s estimate of the “social cost of carbon” (SCC).The climate science, economics, and statistics experts’ paper in the prestigious journal Natureupdates the best estimate of how much each ton of carbon dioxide costs society as a result of climate change damages. Their conservative best estimate is 3.6 times higher than the $51 value currently used by the federal government, and roughly 30 times more than the value previously adopted by the Trump administration.It’s a critically important number because federal agencies by law are to consider the costs and benefits of proposed regulations. For climate pollutant regulations, the benefits of future climate damages avoided are estimated via the SCC. A higher value would result in larger benefit-to-cost ratios, justifying more aggressive federal climate regulations.“It suggests there are many more actions we can take to curb carbon emissions that are going to be on the table that were not on the table before,” Stanford University economist Marshall Burke, not involved in the study, told the Associated Press.The single largest factor contributing to the increase in the estimated SCC is the “discount rate.” This concept is premised on the premise that wages, the economy, and wealth grow over time – a trend that is expected to continue. Having an extra dollar today that can accumulate interest over time may thus be considered more valuable than a dollar received in the future. But in the case of an intergenerational problem like climate change, a high discount rate can also effectively discount the welfare of people born in the future.Previous best estimates of the SCC – including the current federal value of $51, originally set by the Obama administration – have tended to use a discount rate of 3%. In 2017, the National Academy of Sciences published a report recommending how estimates of the SCC should be improved, including revisiting the question of discount rates.As three of the new Nature study’s co-authors wrote in 2021, the prior 3% choice was based on the average interest rates of U.S. treasury bonds from 1973 to 2003, and is thus outdated. A2017 brief from the White House Council of Economic Advisors found that based on lower interest rates in recent decades, the discount rate should be revised to about 2%. A 2018 study also found “a surprising degree of consensus” for a 2% discount rate in a survey of more than 200 publishing academics.This one change – revising the discount rate from 3% to 2% – by itself more than doubles the estimated SCC. How so? Because the bulk of climate damages occur decades in the future, and so discounting the value of future climate damages can significantly suppress estimates of the SCC. Using a 2% discount rate, the study finds with 90% confidence that the SCC is between $44 and $413, with the best estimate pegged at $185 per ton. The Trump administration had moved in the opposite direction, using discount rates of 3% and a whopping 7% in its efforts to dramatically lower the estimated SCC to near-zero.

America's electric utilities spent decades spreading climate misinformation -America’s electric utilities were aware as early as the 1960s that the burning of fossil fuels was warming the planet, but, two decades later, worked hand in hand with oil and gas companies to “promote doubt around climate change for the sake of continued … profits,” finds a new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. The research adds utility companies and their affiliated groups to the growing list of actors that spent years misleading the American public about the threat of climate change. Over the past half decade, oil companies like BP and ExxonMobil have had todefend themselves in court against cities, state attorneys general, youth activists, and other entities who allege the world’s fossil fuel giants knew about the existence of climate change as far back as 1968, yet chose to ignore the information and launch disinformation campaigns. Recent investigations show the coal industry did something similar, as did fossil fuel-funded economists. But while the role Big Oil played in misleading the public has been widely publicized, utilities’ culpability has largely flown under the radar. So researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara began collecting and analyzing public and private records kept by organizations within the utility industry. The authors analyzed public reports authored by utility companies or their affiliated groups between 1968 and 2019, as well as collected documents from watchdog groups. They found 188 external and internal documents referencing climate change from utility companies, research groups, trade associations, and other organizations closely linked to the industry. Two of the affiliated groups, the Edison Electric Institute and the Electric Power Research Institute, which authored or distributed most of the documents in the study, are the utility industry’s main trade group and research arm, respectively.

Carbon Capture & Storage Explained: The New Fossil Fuel Frontier - We’re running out of time to fight the consequences of our fossil fuel dependence. Everyday, we face headlines on raging wildfires, parching droughts, devastating hurricanes and other climate disasters. Experts have made it clear: we should have plugged carbon emissions yesterday. But what if we could only take emissions out of the fossil fuel equation?That’s the fantasy that industry leaders and many politicians are pushing above anything else. But it’s just another scam that will boost profits and double down on polluting industry, with disastrous consequences for communities already sickened by air and water toxins from dirty energy power plants.This fantasy goes by the name of carbon capture and storage. It refers to technologies designed to trap and remove carbon emissions from smokestacks or the atmosphere itself. And it’s gotten a lot of buzz lately. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law allocated billions of dollars to develop and deploy carbon capture. The Inflation Reduction Act will send billions more. But carbon capture isn’t a solution to climate change. In fact, it will entrench and grow the pollution that has already plagued frontline communities for decades. The industry claims that carbon capture technology stores carbon deep underground, forever. But corporations don’t have a good track record when it comes to pumping stuff underground. Oil and gas companies routinely inject drilling wastewater deep into the earth, and even wells deemed safe at the outset have leaked. Pumping wastewater underground has contaminated well water and even disrupted local geology, causing earthquakes.Even if this end-use were foolproof, it’s not the one the carbon capture facilities actually use. In fact, 95% of carbon currently captured is used for enhanced oil recovery. That means the carbon is injected into old oil and gas wells to push out every last drop — contributing to our vicious cycle of fossil fuel dependence. Moreover, carbon capture is incredibly energy-intensive. That, combined with the emissions of the fossil fuels they perpetuate, has meant that U.S. carbon capture projects have actually led to a net increase in emissions, not a decrease. And we are paying a lot for these emissions. Failed carbon capture projects havecost us billions in taxpayer dollars and will cost us billions more. We are paying through the nose for projects that don’t work, yet allow coal and other dirty energies to persist.This climate scam will be used to greenwash a variety of dirty energy sources — for example, ethanol. Industry has touted ethanol made from growing corn as a “renewable” fuel source. But corn ethanol is actually an estimated 24% more emissions-intensive than gasoline. It also causes a host of other problems, from higher corn prices to entrenching industrial agriculture practices. Carbon capture stands to entrench the corn ethanol industry by green-washing it even more. The rush to get CCS technology into ethanol has already begun.Thousands of miles of pipelines planned for Iowa would transport CO2 from ethanol and fertilizer facilities to injection sites.There’s hardly a dirty energy that carbon capture doesn’t prop up. The fossil fuel industry plans to use it to revive dying coal and fracked gas plants. If allowed, they’ll attach it to hydrogen power generation derived from fracked gas.Across the dirty energy sector, corporations plan to use carbon capture as a cover to continue emitting, polluting and threatening our health and safety.

Clean Energy Projects Surge After Climate Bill Passage - In the weeks since President Biden signed a comprehensive climate bill devised to spur investment in electric cars and clean energy, corporations have announced a series of big-ticket projects to produce the kind of technology the legislation aims to promote. Toyota said it would invest an additional $2.5 billion in a factory in North Carolina to produce batteries for electric cars and hybrids. Honda and LG Energy Solution announced a joint venture to build a $4.4 billion battery factory at a location to be named. Piedmont Lithium, a mining company, said it would build a plant in Tennessee to process lithium for batteries, helping to ease America’s dependence on Chinese refineries — a key aim of the Biden administration. First Solar, a big solar panel manufacturer, said it would invest up to $1.2 billion to build its fourth factory in the United States, probably somewhere in the Southeast, largely because of renewable energy incentives in the climate bill. But those projects, announced last week, also illustrate how much work remains to be done. Factories take time to build, and until then electric vehicles are likely to remain scarce and expensive. Toyota’s factory in North Carolina and Honda’s venture with LG will not produce batteries until 2025. Some of the projects were in the works before the federal legislation passed, and before California added an extra push by banning sales of new gasoline cars by 2035. The big climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, is the latest in a series of policy moves and geopolitical developments that have pushed automakers and suppliers to invest in the United States. The trade war with China, disruption of supply chains by the pandemic, changes in free-trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the bipartisan infrastructure law last year have all had a powerful impact on where companies decide to build factories. The timing of Toyota’s announcement, two weeks after Mr. Biden signed the climate law, was a coincidence, said Norm Bafunno, a senior vice president at Toyota Motor North America whose responsibilities include the North Carolina plant. But he added that the legislation could be a “catalyst for our domestic battery production.” And he said Toyota was working hard to fulfill provisions of the bill that encourage companies to get raw materials and components for batteries from the United States and its trade allies. At a time of economic uncertainty, the legislation gives companies more confidence that they can earn a return on their bets. The investments serve as affirmation of political leaders’ intent: to further accelerate America’s transition away from fossil fuels and to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, especially those in China. Investment in renewable energy will total $1.2 trillion by 2035, analysts at Wood Mackenzie estimate, substantially more than would have been the case without the legislation. Spending on solar power installations, for example, will be two-thirds higher because of the law, according to the consultancy. “We’ve seen an outpouring of interest from all kinds of companies,” including carmakers, battery suppliers and mining companies, said Isaac Chan, a partner in the Chicago office of the management consultancy Roland Berger who advises clients in the auto industry. The climate package, he said, “makes the calculus better for producing in North America as opposed to making E.V.s in Asia and importing them.”

Climate Law a ‘Game Changer’ for Highways and Bridges - The manufacturing of the concrete and asphalt needed to build the nation’s bridges and highways is a dirty business: Companies that make those materials produce a lot of the emissions that are heating the planet. Soon, however, some of that infrastructure could be rebuilt and repaired with greener materials, if provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act work as intended. The sprawling legislation, which President Biden signed into law last month, builds on investments in last year’s $1 trillion infrastructure bill with programs to lower carbon emissions at America’s industrial plants. “These investments are a game changer for the manufacture of roads and bridges,” said Ben Beachy, the vice president of manufacturing and industrial policy at the BlueGreen Alliance, a partnership of unions and environmental organizations. Through a combination of tax credits and direct funding, including nearly $6 billion to help reduce emissions at manufacturing plants, the Inflation Reduction Act aims to increase the supply of sustainable materials used in infrastructure projects. The package also seeks to create demand for the cleaner products by allocating more than $5 billion to federal agencies to purchase low-carbon materials for their projects. Proponents believe these programs will push manufacturers to lower emissions so that their products become eligible for purchase. Taken together, these and other provisions in the legislation are intended to persuade manufacturers that have been lowering their emissions to stay the course and to spur others to get on board with the low-carbon program. “It’s really an industrial revolution,” said Sara Baldwin, a policy director at Energy Innovation, a think tank. But success will depend on how the rules of the new programs are written and rolled out, experts say. Focusing on heavy industry is crucial if the United States is to meet Mr. Biden’s goal of halving emissions from their levels in 2005 by the end of the decade.

How ‘coffee, beer and wine’ led to a $50 million ‘green hydrogen’ grant for south Louisiana - Shortly after the Biden administration announced its $1 billion Build Back Better economic development challenge in July 2021, staffers at Greater New Orleans Inc. got to work. They began researching potential projects that could not only earn the federal funds, but put them to good use. Through a “vetting process that involved coffee and beer and wine,” as GNO Inc. President and CEO Michael Hecht put it, a clear possibility emerged: “green hydrogen,” or a more environmentally friendly form of a feedstock widely used in Louisiana’s industrial corridor. Those efforts were rewarded Friday when the U.S. Department of Commerce announced H2theFuture, a multifaceted blueprint to change south Louisiana into a “green hydrogen energy cluster,” had earned a $50 million Build Back Better grant. H2theFuture, spearheaded by GNO Inc., was one of 21 Build Back Better winners, whose awards ranged from $25 million to $65 million for regional economic projects that should spur growth with minority and disadvantaged communities in mind. Twenty-five organizations across south Louisiana banded together for the effort, including economic development groups, planning commissions, university systems, ports and others. Historically Black colleges and universities including Dillard University, Southern University and Xavier University will help with research efforts, among other institutions. “With this grant, the H2theFuture coalition will help support sustainable investments for HBCUs and jumpstart a community in need of systemic economic diversification and environmental transformation away from nonrenewable energy,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in a statement. There were 529 initial applications for the grants. Sixty finalists were announced in December, including a New Orleans BioInnovation Center effort to turn south Louisiana into a health sciences corridor. That initiative missed the final cut but did win a $500,000 award. H2theFuture is meant not only to move Louisiana’s energy and industrial sectors away from fossil fuels, but also to help create jobs. The state’s oil and gas workforce lost nearly 22,000 positions from 2001 to 2020, according to GNO Inc. “Securing one of the coveted Build Back Better Challenge awards solidifies Louisiana’s status as a global leader in the energy transition and a prime location for renewable energy investment and innovation,” Louisiana Economic Development Secretary Don Pierson said in a statement. H2theFuture has a $74 million budget, Hecht said. There are five primary projects, or “workstreams,” envisioned under the initiative’s umbrella: An industry training program for displaced workers, rural citizens and minorities; A workforce development strategy to attract and retain hydrogen businesses; A low-carbon research collaborative involving the state’s universities; A new hub for clean energy initiatives, called the New Energy Center of the United States or NEXUS, at the University of New Orleans; And a hydrogen fueling barge, the first of its kind in the U.S., at the Port of South Louisiana. Hecht said next steps include regrouping with the “workstream” teams, as well as hiring new staff, including a director for NEXUS. Some projects, like NEXUS and the barge, will involve new construction, though the University of Louisiana at Lafayette has already begun work on “next generation electrolyzers,” Hecht said.

Inflation Reduction Act charts a new course for US biofuels industry Though ethanol is mentioned only thrice in the lengthy Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, ethanol producers will benefit from its carbon capture, utilization and storage provisions, clean fuel production credits, and incentives for ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, cellulosic ethanol manufacturers celebrated the revival of a previously-expired $1.01/gal second generation biofuels credit.The Act does not replace the existing Renewable Fuel Standard, so the EPA will continue setting volumetric blending mandates each year. Many US ethanol producers plan to use carbon capture technologies to reduce the life cycle carbon intensity of their fuel. Lowering a fuel's CI score increases its value, particularly in low-carbon markets such as California and Oregon. Summit Carbon Solutions, Navigator CO2 and Wolf Carbon Solutions are among the companies planning pipelines to transport CO2 captured from ethanol plants and store it underground. As of August, Summit and Navigator each had 32 facilities signed up for their networks. Summit announced that Iowa landowners have signed more than 1,200 voluntary easements for its pipeline. The new law extends and expands the tax credit for CCUS, commonly known as the 45Q tax credit, for projects that begin construction between 2023 and 2032. 45Q tax credits are based on the volume of qualified carbon oxides captured and sequestered. Last renewed in 2018, the new law bumps up the value of the credit to $85/mt for sequestration and $60/mt if the carbon oxide is utilized, presuming that the facility complies with prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements. The credits are 80% lower if the requirements are not met. The minimum volume thresholds needed for facilities to qualify for the credit have also changed. Prior to the law, an ethanol plant needed to emit more than 100,000 mt/year of carbon oxide to qualify. Now it is only 12,500 mt/year. The new provisions apply to facilities and equipment placed in service after Dec. 31. Two lesser-known biofuels credits that expired at the end of 2021 were revived retroactively: the alternative fuel mixture credit and the 2G biofuels credit. The alternative fuel mixture credit is a 50 cents/gal tax credit that rewards the use of fuels such as propane and compressed natural gas in a motor vehicle, motorboat or aircraft. The law removed liquified hydrogen as an alternative fuel as it is now covered by other provisions. The 2G biofuels credit provides up to $1.01/gal for the production of 2G biofuels. Qualified feedstock includes any lignocellulosic or hemicellulosic matter that is available on a renewable or recurring basis as well as any cultivated algae, cyanobacteria or lemna. These credits were also extended to the end of 2024.The on-again, off-again $1/gal federal biomass-based diesel blending credit was set to expire on Dec. 31, but was extended to Dec. 31, 2024. The credit mostly applies to blending biodiesel and renewable diesel, but SAF is eligible for the credit as well. The new law gives SAF a more valuable credit than biodiesel and renewable diesel starting in 2023. The new $1.25/gal SAF blending credit applies toward SAF that reduces emissions by at least 50% compared to standard jet fuel. An additional 1 cent/gal will be given for each percentage point over 50% to a max of $1.75/gal.

Biofuel infrastructure grant program accepting applications - Renewable fuel businesses in Missouri have the opportunity to vie for infrastructure project funding through a state program this month. The Biofuel Infrastructure Incentive Program (BIIP), which is administered by the Missouri Agricultural and Small Business Development Authority (MASBDA), will dole out up to $40 million in funds for clean fuel businesses undertaking infrastructure projects. Funds are to be awarded to fuel retailers or distributors, fleet operations or terminal companies that currently or plan to store or dispense ethanol blends. Funds are available for the construction, installation, retrofitting or upgrading of infrastructure within the state that's solely used for the environmentally-friendly biofuel practices, including fuel dispensers, pumps, and underground and above-ground storage tanks. Projects may include multiple locations across the state, according to MASBDA. Biodiesel is renewable and biodegradable fuel derived from agricultural products, including soybean oil. Ethanol, meanwhile, is produced using feedstocks. Businesses dealing with blends of 15 percent ethanol or higher or biodiesel blends at or beyond 6 percent are eligible to apply for the funds.

Special Report: How U.S. ethanol plants are allowed to pollute more than oil refineries - In 2007, the U.S. Congress mandated the blending of biofuels such as corn-based ethanol into gasoline. One of the top goals: reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But today, the nation’s ethanol plants produce more than double the climate-damaging pollution, per gallon of fuel production capacity, than the nation’s oil refineries, according to a Reuters analysis of federal data. The average ethanol plant chuffed out 1,187 metric tons of carbon emissions per million gallons of fuel capacity in 2020, the latest year data is available. The average oil refinery, by contrast, produced 533 metric tons of carbon. The ethanol plants’ high emissions result in part from a history of industry-friendly federal regulation that has allowed almost all processors to sidestep the key environmental requirement of the 2007 law, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), according to academics who have studied ethanol pollution and regulatory documents examined by Reuters. There is a mandate in the Renewable Fuel Standard to require ethanol plants to show a reduction in greenhouse emissions. However, the agency has exempted more than 95% of U.S. ethanol plants from the requirement through a grandfathering provision, that excused plants built or under construction before the legislation passed. Today, these plants produce more than 80% of the nation’s ethanol, according to the EPA. Additionally, industry has successfully lobbied to force the EPA to redo calculations after the industry was found to not be in compliance with the law.

Renewable Energy Buildout: Chesapeake Utilities Develops Pipeline to Capture Landfill Methane -A project to capture gas emitted from a landfill in northwestern Ohio is helping to reduce emissions from flaring. The captured gas will then be processed to be used by utility customers and at compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling stations. Chesapeake Utilities’ subsidiary Aspire Energy of Ohio partnered with OPAL Fuels LLC and Rumpke Waste & Recycling on the Noble Road Landfill RNG Pipeline. Aspire constructed a 33.1-mile pipeline, which was completed in September 2021 and transports renewable natural gas (RNG) from Shiloh, Ohio, in Richland County, to Jeromesville, Ohio, in Ashland County.Aspire Energy is an unregulated natural gas infrastructure company with more than 2,700 miles of pipeline systems throughout Ohio. The company provides natural gas supplies to various local gas cooperatives and local distribution systems, reaching about 21,000 end-use customers.The project was developed to transport RNG generated from Rumpke’s Noble Road Landfill in Shiloh to Aspire Energy’s pipeline system, displacing conventionally produced natural gas. In conjunction with this expansion, Aspire Energy also upgraded an existing compressor station to 500 hp and installed two new metering and regulation sites. Chesapeake Utilities invested $7.3 million in the project, which was constructed in a little more than six months, starting in April 2021.The project allows Rumpke Waste & Recycling, one of the largest privately owned residential and commercial waste and recycling firms in the United States, to extract and capture waste methane from the Noble Road Landfill. OPAL Fuels, an emerging leader in the production and distribution of RNG, then purifies the biogas to pipeline quality standards through its new, state-of-the-art facility, removing carbon dioxide and other components from the methane.In addition to supplying Aspire Energy’s customers, the RNG also will be dispensed into fueling stations built and operated by OPAL Fuels. The Noble Road project will capture and transport quantities of RNG equivalent to 6.9 million gasoline gallon equivalents (GGE) per year, enough to fuel 725 biofuel trucks.

Electric vehicles, renewable energy continue to top state legislative priorities - State lawmakers have been busy advancing robust energy-related legislation during current legislative sessions. While the overall number of enacted measures has dropped in comparison to 2021, a significant amount of bills passed both chambers and ultimately received approval. Approximately 88 energy-related measures were enacted between April and June. Legislative activity during the second quarter decreased roughly 43% compared to the same period in 2021. During the first half, 142 bills were enacted — a roughly 25% decrease compared to the first half of 2021 with 188 bills passed. Bills relating to electric vehicles and infrastructure, solar energy and hydrogen gas topped the list of the most commonly enacted energy-related measures across 19 states. Additional enacted bills dealt with carbon emissions, other forms of renewable energy and net metering. Legislatures in the District of Columbia and all but four states — Montana, Nevada, North Dakota and Texas — have convened in 2022. During the second quarter, lawmakers continued to focus on various facets of the renewable and clean energy sector. While many states have already enacted ambitious renewable portfolio standards in past years, the current trend among lawmakers has been to pass measures that complement these policies and facilitate a path to achieve these overarching targets. While only a handful of states are still in session, several special sessions are expected to convene in the coming months. Additionally, several of the remaining legislatures are concluding their final year of a two-year legislative session, indicating an expected significant increase in enacted measures in 2022.State lawmakers have continued to embrace measures regarding EVs and related infrastructure, which once again tops the list of themes consuming state-level politics. This comes as no surprise, as many governors alluded to the potential ramp-up in activity on EVs and EV infrastructure in the near term during their state of the state addresses. During the second quarter, six states — Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Louisiana, Maine and Maryland — enacted measures related to EVs, with legislation ranging from setting targets for state-purchased zero-emission vehicles to EV charging infrastructure. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, signed a robust EV measure, Senate Bill 4, on May 10. The measure makes various statutory changes and establishes several new programs and initiatives intended to increase EV use, improve air quality and reduce transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions. The bill allows the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection commissioner to adopt California's emission standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. This provision follows an executive order issued by Lamont in December 2021, which required the department to submit an assessment of whether the state needed to adopt the Advanced Clean Trucks Regulation to meet statutorily required emission reduction targets under the Global Warming Solutions Act. Connecticut is one of seven states that have adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks rules, following California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington.

Battery storage sets records in California heatwave energy crisis - Energy stored in batteries is being dispatched in large volumes in California as record-breaking hot weather in the Western US has brought the state’s electricity sector into crisis. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which manages the grid and oversees electricity wholesale markets for more than 80% of California, has been issuing ‘Flex Alerts’ since August. CAISO activates the alerts to manage the shortfall of electricity supply versus demand, asking customers to turn down their power usage and bringing as many resources as it can to ramp up supply. CAISO had said prior to the summer that it expected to have 4GW of battery storage capacity available, mostly from grid-scale, four-hour duration battery energy storage systems (BESS), it hasn’t quite made it that far. However, it is thought to be close to that mark, especially with a few big systems coming online in the past few weeks, like a pair of projects from AES Corporation totaling 227MW/908MWh. The past few days have seen that fleet in action in a big way. On 6 September, Jill Anderson, executive VP for operations at another big utility, Southern California Edison, tweeted that it was “incredible” to see battery storage set “record after record of grid support during this intense heatwave”. The most extreme mismatch between supply and demand generally comes between 7pm and 9pm, in the evening peak. Anderson posted a graph from CAISO showing that around 7pm on that day, well over 3,000MW of battery capacity was discharging to the grid. “Just now we saw batteries discharging more than double last year & orders of magnitude more than what was available to the grid in 2020,” Anderson tweeted.

Water is now seen as a precious, vital and scarce resource in the global energy sector --The link between energy production and water is of crucial importance and we need to value the latter resource far more going forward, according to the CEO of a leading gas infrastructure firm. The comments from Snam CEO Stefano Venier come at a time when theinterconnection between water and energy security has been thrown into sharp relief following a period of high temperatures and significant drought in Europe."For a long time, water was considered [as being] for free, as something that is fully available in any quantity," Venier told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy."Now, we are discovering that with climate change … water can become scarce," Venier, who was speaking at the end of last week, added."And we have to regain the perception of importance, and the value [that] … the water has, also, with respect to … energy production."Expanding on his point, Venier noted how "we have discovered that without water, enough water, we cannot produce the energy we need, or we can't ship the fuels for filling the power plants."With water levels of some major European rivers dropping in recent months, there have been concerns about how this will affect the supply of energy sources such as coal, a fossil fuel.Earlier in August, for example, Uniper — via the transparency platform of the European Energy Exchange — said there "may be irregular operation" at two of its hard-fired coal plants, Datteln 4 and Staudinger 5.This was, it reported, "due to a limitation of coal volumes on site caused by the low water levels of the Rhine river."

Environmentalists say 20-year-deal between Memphis, TVA is a mistake - The head of the Tennessee Valley Authority heard from Memphians up close and personal Wednesday. “The coal ash is such an insult, sir… and you want a 20-year contract,” Pearl Walker, a community organizer with Memphis Has the Power, said to TVA CEO Jeff Lyash Wednesday morning. Lyash sat stoic, flanked by myriad TVA executives. A few minutes later, for the umpteenth time, he would tell the public and the Memphis, Light, Gas and Water Board of Commissioners, why he felt Memphis should keep buying electricity from the federal provider over the long term. Walker’s comments to Lyash weren’t isolated. Another community member, Yolonda Spinks, told Lyash the coal ash removal process represented "environmental racism." The comments, together, encapsulate the lingering resentment and discontent in Memphis, particularly Southwest Memphis and Whitehaven, about TVA’s planned years-long trucking of coal ash through the south part of the city to the South Shelby landfill. TVA: MLGW wants to stay with TVA. Will the Memphis City Council let it sign a 20-year deal? MGLW: Memphis, Light, Gas and Water should remain with Tennessee Valley Authority, CEO says Many remain angry the ash that was burned in Memphis will stay in the city and be trucked daily through majority-Black neighborhoods for almost a decade. Lyash said Wednesday the ash removal could last until 2030. That discontent and the widely accepted perception that TVA did not pay Memphis much attention until MLGW considered buying electricity elsewhere are Lyash and TVA's most significant barriers to keeping MLGW in the fold, a reality that now appears close at hand. Last week, MLGW CEO J.T. Young said he wants the city-owned utility to stay with TVA on a 20-year, rolling contract. Young's decision came after more than 20 private sector companies bid on supplying Memphis electricity. That would be a victory for TVA — its largest electricity customer would be locked up for a generation. Young and Lyash both argue the deal is the best value for MLGW ratepayers. Of the 153 local power companies that belong to TVA, 146 have signed the contract.

'Deeply worrying': Liz Truss' pick for Britain's energy chief slammed by climate campaigners - — The U.K.'s new secretary of state for business, energy and industrial strategy is a lawmaker who recently called for more fossil fuel extraction from the North Sea and described fracking as an "interesting opportunity."Jacob-Rees Mogg, who is the MP for North East Somerset in the southwest of England, was confirmed in his role on Tuesday evening.During a phone in with radio station LBC back in April, and prior to his position in new Prime Minister Liz Truss' cabinet, Rees-Mogg offered some insight into how he may look to shape policy in the months ahead."We need to be thinking about extracting every last cubic inch of gas from the North Sea because we want security of supply," he said." But 2050 is a long time off," he added, referring to the U.K.'s legally binding goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by the middle of this century."We're not trying to become net-zero tomorrow, and we are going to need fossil fuels in the interim, and we should use ours, that we have got available," Rees-Mogg said.He later doubled down on the need for fossil fuels, stating that "we want to get oil out of the North Sea, we want to get more gas out of the North Sea."And on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, Rees-Mogg said, "if we're sitting on tons of gas, that seems quite an interesting opportunity."Such a viewpoint stands in stark contrast to the views expressed by high-profile figures such as the U.N. Secretary General, Antonio Guterres.Back in June, Guterres slammed new funding for fossil fuel exploration, describing it as "delusional" and calling for an abandonment of fossil fuel finance.

Energy crisis pushes Europe toward pricing experiments - European ministers are set to meet Friday to grapple with a worsening energy crisis marked by soaring power prices as Russia withholds gas supplies through a major pipeline to Europe. On the table are proposals for natural gas price caps, support for homeowners and businesses beleaguered by sky-high energy costs and mandatory cuts to electricity use during peak hours. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also suggested that electricity markets could be reformed to avoid dramatic swings in gas prices. “We are facing an extraordinary situation, not only because Russia is an unreliable supplier, as we have witnessed over the last days, weeks, months, but also because Russia is actively manipulating the gas market,” she said Wednesday. The soaring prices stem from a convergence of supply challenges that include a sharp drop in hydropower due to drought and reduced nuclear output. Hydroelectricity output is down 25 percent compared to the same period last year, and nuclear has fallen 14 percent, according to a note from Rystad Energy, a research group. Growth in wind and solar power has covered a chunk of the supply deficit, and coal use has also risen to make up the shortfall, Rystad said. Meanwhile, gas supplies from Russia, which started to withhold exports last summer, have fallen dramatically since it invaded Ukraine in February, prompting the European Union to look elsewhere for fuel. “So far there has been enough capacity to replace the lost supplies. But the question is if there will be enough capacity in the winter when demand increases further,” said Carlos Torres Diaz, director of power and gas market research at Rystad Energy. Last week, Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom said it would stop sending gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, the main route for Russian gas to Europe. Flows had already been reduced to 20 percent of what they were a year ago. But the prospects of a full cut-off sharpens concerns that the European Union could struggle to get through winter with enough power to heat homes and businesses. “High gas prices will continue to destruct gas demand over the next few years, but any further actions to close the supply gap will need to come from gas demand — for example, using less gas in power or demand rationing,” Penny Leake, research analyst for European gas at Wood Mackenzie, said in an email. The situation has put Europe in the tough spot of having to decide how to reduce demand to avoid power cuts. One possible consequence of putting a price cap on gas is that people would be less inclined to save energy. “It’s definitely a situation where governments are really intervening heavily in markets,” said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They are thinking about price caps. They are looking at market design. They’re bailing out state companies and taking larger equity stakes, especially companies that are politically sensitive. There’s definitely a new era in European energy policy.”

Germany to keep two nuclear plants available as a backup and burn coal as it faces an energy crisis -German lawmakers announced on Monday that they are going to burn coal and keep two nuclear power plants available as a last resort to get through the winter. "The major crises — war and climate crises — have a very concrete effect," said Robert Habeck, the federal economics and climate protection minister, in written statements published on Monday. (The statement is issued in German and CNBC used Google to translate it to English.) The German government announced its plans to keep the Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim nuclear power plants, both of which are located in the southern part of the country, on a kind of backup status, available only if the country has no other option, as it announced the results of its second network stress test, in which German officials are calculating its energy needs based on a number of potentialities. This second network stress test was focused on the winter season from 2022 to 2023, which is when energy demand is higher as people and businesses need to heat their homes. The Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection said in its written statement that "hourly crisis situations in the electricity system" this winter are "very unlikely, but cannot be completely ruled out at the moment." The war in Ukraine has affected Germany's ability to manage its energy supplies because Germany depends heavily on natural gas exports from Russia. Gazprom, Russia's major state-owned energy giant said on Friday that it would not re-open the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is the primary route of supplying Europe with natural gas, citing a need for maintenance work. In addition to the squeeze on natural gas supplies, summer heatwaves and an ongoing drought have also disrupted energy sources. "The summer drought has reduced the water levels in rivers and lakes, which weakens hydroelectric power in neighboring countries and also makes it difficult for us to transport coal to the power plants that we have to use due to the tight gas situation," Habeck said. Germany's European neighbors are also struggling to meet their energy needs. Roughly half of France's nuclear power reactors have been taken offline as the country struggles to maintain the aging plants, the New York Times reports. Germany said its membership in the European Union is part of the reason for its decision. "We have enough energy in and for Germany; we are an electricity exporting country. But we are part of a European system and this year is a special year across Europe," Habeck said. Also, Germany has struggled to ramp up renewables, like wind and solar, and build new transmission lines. Even as Germany opts to give itself the option to turn to the two southern nuclear power plants, Germany is not changing its longer-term goal to shut down all nuclear power in the country. The announcement is very much a stop-gap for the country, similar to the proposal California is currently pursuing to keep its last operating nuclear power reactor, Diablo Canyon, online. "Nuclear power is and will remain a high-risk technology, and the highly radioactive waste will burden tens of generations to come. You can't play with nuclear power," Habeck said in the statement. "A blanket lifetime extension would therefore not be justifiable with regard to the safety status of the nuclear power plants.

Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant operations extended through 2030 by California Lawmakers - California lawmakers agreed to extend the operations at Diablo Canyon Power Plant in San Luis Obispo County. The power plant is one of the state's largest single source of electricity it produces between six to nine percent of the state's energy. But not everyone from the community is happy with the decision. Mothers For Peace said the decision is not a good thing for the environment. Critics also remain concerned an earthquake could lead to radiation exposure from the power plant. Some locals say keeping the power plant open is a safety hazard. “Unless we figure out a way to hold them to their word about a license for five years, the people of San Luis Obispo County are going to be stuck with a radioactive waste dump for at least another 22 years," said Linda Seeley with San Luis Obispo Mothers For Peace. Others say the power plant is a safe option to support energy demands. “Nuclear power is far safer than even solar power. Do we run this clean power source for its design lifetime of a century? Or do we go back to business as usual and burn lots of natural gas? Or more significantly for Diablo Canyon, coal," said Gene Nelson, California For Green Nuclear Power.

Green Groups Blast ‘Dangerous and Dumb’ $1.4 Billion Bailout of California Nuclear Plant -Green groups on Thursday led condemnation of a vote by California lawmakers to keep the state’s last remaining nuclear power plant open for five more years, in part by lending its operator, the criminal corporation PG&E, $1.4 billion.In a late-night, last-minute 67-3 vote Wednesday at the close of the legislative session, California Assembly members passed S.B. 846, which will keep PG&E’s 36-year-old Diablo Canyon plant near Avila Beach in San Luis Obispo County — slated to shut by 2025 — online until 2030. The state Senate subsequently passed the bill by a vote of 29-1. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, has said he will sign the measure into law.For many climate campaigners, S.B. 846’s passage dampened a day on which California lawmakers passed a flurry of bills aimed at tackling the climate emergency, including measures legally mandating net-zero by 2045, establishing health and safety buffer zones around new oil and gas wells, and investing $54 billion in climate mitigation.“The rush by lawmakers and Gov. Newsom to keep Diablo Canyon running is dangerous and dumb and will only set back California’s drive to make solar and wind the prevailing sources of electricity in the state,” Ken Cook, president of the Environmental Working Group, said in a statement. “EWG will explore every available opportunity — administratively, legally, and policy-wise — to prevent the extended operation of Diablo Canyon.” State lawmakers, nuclear advocates, and even some environmental groups successfully argued that soaring summer temperatures and expected energy shortages warranted extending the plant’s life. Plant proponents claim it will be difficult to achieve California’s goal of transitioning to 100% renewable energy by 2045 without Diablo Canyon’s 2,250-megawatt capacity. “This is critical in the context of making sure we have energy reliability going forward,” Newsom explained. “That energy does not produce greenhouse gases. That energy provides baseload and reliability and affordability that will complement and allow us to stack all of the green energy that we’re bringing online at record rates.”

TVA, Southern eye extending lifespan of nuclear plants - Two Southeast utilities are considering extending the life of some of their nuclear reactors by 20 years, in the latest sign of nuclear’s resurgence amid the Biden administration’s push to decarbonize the power sector by 2035. Last week, officials at both the Tennessee Valley Authority and Southern Co. publicly discussed extending the operating licenses for their reactors. TVA’s board agreed in a meeting last Wednesday to task its chief executive officer with deciding whether to extend the life of its Browns Ferry nuclear plant in Alabama. On the same day, Southern’s nuclear unit told federal regulators that it intends to formally file a request for a license extension for Plant Hatch in Georgia by the end of 2025. The extensions would lead to the reactors running an unprecedented 80 years. “I personally feel that nuclear is critical to transitioning to a lower-carbon portfolio,” said Jeff Smith, a TVA board member and former deputy for operations at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory. “Without a strong backbone of nuclear in our system, we can’t deploy renewables to the degree that we hope to deploy them.” The moves are part of a trend of electric utilities, mostly in the Southeast, asking the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for what’s known as a “subsequent license renewal” for their reactors. The process was established under the Trump administration, and has continued under President Joe Biden, who has made emissions-free nuclear a key part of his decarbonization plan. The proposed license extensions come at a time when some reactors that operate in wholesale, competitive markets face early closure because they cannot compete economically against renewables (and, during some periods, with low natural gas prices). The White House has thrown financial lifelines to help some of these struggling reactors in efforts to keep them operating. With the exception of the plants run by TVA, which is a public utility, the nuclear plants in the Southeast are owned by regulated electric companies, who follow a traditional business model of building and operating power plants and recouping those expenses from customers. That makes it more viable to run these reactors for decades. Southern and TVA also have their own net-zero goals and have been vocal about the need to develop advanced nuclear reactors and keep their current fleet running for as long as possible. Groups including Beyond Nuclear and Friends of the Earth have raised concerns about whether aging reactors poses risks to safety and the environment. Johnny Weissinger, vice president of Southern’s Plant Hatch, said in a statement that renewing the plant’s license “supports our longstanding commitment of providing clean, safe and reliable energy to Georgia.” Southern Nuclear operates reactors in Alabama and Georgia. The current licenses for Plant Hatch in southeastern Georgia expire in 2034 and 2038. The 1,848-megawatt plant is owned by Southern’s Georgia Power unit and a group of public power utilities. The company also operates two reactors at Plant Vogtle and is building two more. Georgia Power recently told state utility regulators it expects the first reactor to start producing electricity by the end of March 2023 and the second during the later part of the year.

Can the U.S. Kick Its Reliance on Russian Uranium? - Back in early March shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden signed an executive order to ban the import of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal to the United States. Although the ban together with EU sanctions have been blamed for skyrocketing global energy prices, U.S. refiners are none the worse for wear since Russia supplied just 3% of U.S. crude oil imports. However, the punters were quick to point out that one notable export was left off of that list: uranium. The U.S. is far more reliant on Russian uranium, and imported about 14 percent of its uranium and 28 percent of all enrichment services from Russia in 2021 while the figures for the European Union were 20 percent and 26 percent for imports and enrichment services, respectively. Russia is home to one of the world’s largest uranium resources with an estimated 486,000 tons of uranium, the equivalent of 8 percent of global supply. Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reiterated his calls on the U.S. and the international community to ban Russian uranium imports following the Russian shelling near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya power plant.Many experts, however, contend that banning Russian uranium is easier said than done thanks to Russia’s status as the world’s leading uranium enrichment complex–accounting for almost half the global capacity–and that is something that cannot be easily replaced.The U.S. currently has one operational plant managed by its UK-Netherlands-Germany owners that can produce less than a third of its annual domestic needs. Further, the country currently has no plans to develop or find sufficient enrichment capacity to become domestically self-sufficient in the future.In contrast, China’s China Nuclear Corporation is working to double its capacity to meet the needs of China’s rapidly growing civilian nuclear reactor fleet, so that by 2030 China plans to have nearly one-third of global capacity. With the Biden administration having set a goal of reaching 100 percent carbon-free energy by 2035, nuclear power will likely continue to be a hot-button issue despite being a low-carbon fuel mainly because conventional nuclear fuel creates a lot of hazardous waste.What would give nuclear energy a major boost would be a significant technological breakthrough in substituting thorium for uranium in reactors. The public would likely be far easier to bring on board with the removal of dangerous uranium. Thorium is now being billed as the ‘great green hope’ of clean energy production that produces less waste and more energy than uranium, is meltdown-proof, has no weapons-grade by-products and can even consume legacy plutonium stockpiles.

40 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Aug 29-Sep 4 | Marcellus Drilling News - Last week the three states with active Marcellus/Utica drilling, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, issued a collective 40 new drilling permits, way up from the 19 permits issued the week before. But there was a shocker. PA only issued nine new permits, while OH issued 14 new permits and WV issued a record high 17 new permits. Antero Resources, Ascent Resources, Belmont County, Bradford County,Butler County, Carroll County, Chesapeake Energy, CNX Resources, Columbiana County, Elk County, Encino Energy, Energy Companies, Harrison County, Hilcorp Energy, INR, Marshall County,Monongalia County, PennEnergy Resources, Seneca Resources, Southwestern Energy, Tug Hill Operating, Tyler County, Wetzel County

Quantum Energy Partners to Take Major Position in EQT After $5.2B Transaction -EQT Corp. said late Tuesday it would bolt-on 90,000 net acres and associated midstream assets in West Virginia in a cash and stock transaction valued at $5.2 billion. EQT, the nation’s largest natural gas producer, is acquiring upstream assets from THQ Appalachia I LLC and midstream assets from THQ XcL Holdings I LLC. Both companies are backed by funds managed by private equity firm Quantum Energy Partners, which is poised to become a core EQT shareholder when the deal closes.The transaction would add 800 MMcfe/d of production from properties near EQT assets in the core of southwest Appalachia. It would provide 11 years of inventory in the Marcellus and Utica shales at current maintenance capital levels, EQT said. The transaction also includes 95 miles of midstream gathering systems connected to interstate pipelines in the region.“The acquisition of Tug Hill and XcL Midstream checks all the boxes of our guiding principles around [mergers and acquisitions], including accretion on free cash flow per share, [net asset value] per share, lowering our cost structure and reducing business risk, while maintaining an investment grade balance sheet,” said EQT CEO Toby Rice. Among the midstream assets being added are a 1 Bcfe/d rich gas trunkline, a 3.5 Bcfe/d lean gas trunkline with 600 MMcf/d of compression capacity, the 225 MMcf/d Clearfork processing plant and 20,000 b/d of condensate stabilization. EQT billed the transaction as a way to strengthen its business by boosting free cash flow (FCF), increasing operational control and expanding its footprint. The assets are expected to generate FCF at average natural gas prices above $1.35/MMBtu over the next five years. EQT would pay $2.6 billion in cash and issue 55 million shares of common stock valued at $2.6 billion, giving the Tug Hill companies and Quantum significant ownership positions. Quantum CEO and founder Wil VanLoh would join EQT’s board after the deal closes, which is expected in the fourth quarter. He said in a statement that he’s ready to work closely with “the EQT management team and board to enhance the long-term value of the company.” EQT expects to fund the cash consideration with money on hand, borrowings under its revolving credit facility and/or debt from the capital markets.

EQT's $5.2B deal marks 2022's largest shale M&A — here's what it means to the company - EQT Corp.'s planned $5.2 billion acquisition of Tug Hill and XcL Midstream will stand as the largest shale acquisition so far in 2022, and create either the natural gas producer's largest or second-largest shareholder. The deal with Quantum Energy Partners, based in Houston, would be the largest upstream shale acquisition in 2022, according to Enverus' tally. The $6 billion merger of Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum into a new company, Chord Energy, is technically larger but includes corporate debt. In Appalachia, there was also the $2.6 billion sale of Tug Hill and Chief Oil & Gas' northeastern Marcellus assets to Chesapeake Energy in January. Like those two deals, EQT's acquisition is from private equity companies looking to sell natural gas assets. But a significant difference is that Quantum isn't looking for an exit. The firm is taking half of the $5.2 billion in EQT common stock. That $2.6 billion translates into about 55 million common shares for Quantum Energy Partners. And Quantum's founder and CEO, Wil VanLoh, will join the EQT board of directors. Quantum's stake in EQT would be likely equal to or slightly ahead of BlackRock Inc., the New York-based investment company that as of the end of 2021 owned 54.9 million shares or 14.5% of the shares outstanding. The terms of the acquisition do not include any lockup, or restriction, on the sale of EQT stock gained in the transaction. For EQT, the acquisition follows what CEO Toby Z. Rice called "industrial logic." Tug Hill's operations in the two counties West Virginia counties of Marshall and Wetzel, representing about 800 million cubic feet per day of natural gas and liquids, plus its future acreage of about 90,000 acres and 300 locations in West Virginia, is adjacent to EQT's own drilling. EQT's operations are "literally right next door to where the Tug assets sit," Rice said. That's likely to translate into further benefits for the expanded EQT, which already has implemented a coordinated series of drilling and completion operations across much of its operations in Appalachia. And the Tug Hill operations are so low cost that they will help lower EQT's overall cost structure; the estimate is that it will lower EQT's breakeven price by 15 cents per million BTU. Tug Hill's acreage is, for the most part, centered in Marshall and Wetzel counties where there had been gold-rush-level interest in the early years of the Marcellus and Utica Shale play. EQT has also acquired a significant portion of acreage in that part of West Virginia from, among other places, its 2020 acquisition of Chevron Appalachia's assets. Tug Hill had run three drilling rigs recently, representing between 30 and 40 wells turned in line a year. Another benefit is that much of Tug Hill's production is liquids instead of straight natural gas, which will benefit EQT by diversifying its portfolio. Currently about 2% of 5.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas is liquids but that will go up to 6% when Tug Hill's production is accounted for moving forward. Then there's the other aspect of the acquisition, XcL Midstream. That brings with it 95 miles of trunk lines worth 4.5 billion cubic feet per day of rich and dry gas connected to the major long-distant pipelines that will allow EQT to send its natural gas and liquified natural gas even further. Having XcL Midstream "will help us with that interconnect even more and allow us to take Pennsylvania gas into that pipe and then down to the Gulf," said CFO David Khani. It will also add its water pipelines that will work well with EQT's efforts in that area.

West Virginians divided over unfinished natural gas pipeline : NPR — The Mountain Valley Pipeline exists as a 303-mile-long chain with hundreds of missing links. Without all of its federal permits, the natural gas project cannot cross Jefferson National Forest or many of the streams and wetlands in its proposed path from West Virginia to North Carolina.That includes one segment at the bottom of Maury Johnson's family farmland in mountainous Monroe County, W.Va."It's built from there over to the next hollow, and they can't cross that stream," Johnson says, pointing about halfway down the ridge, near a small patch where he grows corn, pumpkins and zinnias.That could change soon. When Congress passed historical climate spending last month, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced that his support had hinged on future legislation that would change the process for issuing permits for large energy infrastructure projects such as this one. A one-page summary released by Manchin's office explicitly named steps to support the completion and operation of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. With Congress back in session, debate over this deal and what it means for the future of fossil fuels in the United States is resuming. In West Virginia, supporters of the pipeline, including Manchin, say finishing it will bring in $40 million annually in tax revenue to the state and provide greater energy security for the United States."There's not another project in America today that will bring this much energy within four to five months," Manchin told West Virginia's MetroNews radio network in August. "This has everything to do not only with West Virginia, but our country and the security and energy that we need." But local environmental groups say this deal subverts community input processes, and new fossil fuel infrastructure is incompatible with U.S. climate goals."This is not just about Mountain Valley Pipeline, it's about every community that has been sacrificed across this country" to further fossil fuel extraction, says Johnson, an activist who says pipeline construction put sediment in his well water and degraded his farmland. Originally approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in 2017, the project was supposed to wrap up in 2018 with a budget of $3.5 billion. Environmental groups such as the Sierra Club and Appalachian Mountain Advocates sued federal agencies that issue the pipeline's permits, arguing they failed to adhere to environmental law, and succeeded in getting several permits thrown out, some more than once. The cost of the project ballooned to more than $6 billion. The area is too steep, too full of rivers and streams and home to endangered species such as the candy darter, a small colorful fish, for the pipeline to be completed, says Joe Lovett, founder and executive director of Appalachian Mountain Advocates. "It's just an inappropriate project. Some things just can't be built," he says.

Pipeline fight heads to Washington- Congress is about to hear from hundreds of angry anti-pipeline activists. They are en route from across the country, with some coming from as far away as Alaska, to urge lawmakers on Thursday to nix the controversial Mountain Valley pipeline — and scrub it from a side deal Democratic lawmakers made to advance President Joe Biden's climate law. After holding out for months, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia finally agreed to support the climate measure on the condition that Senate Democrats ease permitting requirements. The deal would help expedite energy infrastructure projects, including the construction of the Mountain Valley pipeline, which is slated to transport natural gas from West Virginia shale reserves to energy markets in mid-Atlantic states. The story of the Appalachian pipeline, which federal regulators first approved in 2017, epitomizes the upcoming congressional battle over Manchin's deal. For Manchin, the 304-mile project is a perfect example of an inefficient and burdensome process to build critical energy infrastructure. Mountain Valley has been mired in legal battles and permitting delays for years. But others maintain that the embattled pipeline highlights the need for more robust environmental reviews and tighter checks on government agencies. While federal and state entities have continued to greenlight the project, courts have determined that the development plan for the pipeline does not comply with current environmental law. Its construction, the courts determined, could harm hundreds of waterways, wetlands and endangered fish in Appalachia. Senate Democratic leaders said last month they intend to attach a permitting proposal to the spending bill that needs to pass before October to avert a government shutdown. While the details of the proposal have yet to be released, opponents of the Mountain Valley pipeline are livid. More than 80 groups sent a letter Wednesday to congressional leadership, urging them to jettison the plan to fast-track the pipeline from the overall permitting proposal. Over 1,000 people plan to attend a rally Thursday evening at the Capitol, and hundreds more are slated to take part in lobbying meetings on the Hill. While progressive Democratic members have vehemently opposed the permitting proposal, party leadership have said they intend to honor the deal.

Appalachian, Indigenous pipeline foes protest climate deal - Roishetta Ozane and her six children squeezed into a three-bedroom trailer, paid for by FEMA, after their Southwest Louisiana home was destroyed by two hurricanes, only six weeks apart. The single mother and her children lived in this cramped space for nearly two years before Ozane, after working three jobs, could afford to buy a new home this past June. Ozane, 37, traveled this week from her home in Sulphur, La., to the nation’s capital to rally on Thursday with others who have beendisplaced by climate catastrophes and those who are advocating against pipelines in their communities. She said she is sharing her story in meetings on Capitol Hill in the offices of her local representatives in hopes that those in power listen to her concerns and reject any bills that further invest in polluting infrastructure.“For so long … these industries have been placed in BIPOC communities that are too often targeted by these projects. It’s time for them to stop. We can no longer be made sacrifices for oil and gas,” Ozane said, referring to Black and Indigenous people and other people of color. Emphasizing that her home near Lake Charles, La., is surrounded by oil and gas refineries, chemical manufacturers and other industries, she had this message for lawmakers: “Breathe the air we breathe. Drink the water we drink. And feel everything we feel in a community where everywhere we look we see industry.”Though last month’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act — a climate, energy and health-care package — was the climate movement’s biggest legislative success, Ozane and others say their communities weresacrificed as a bargaining chip. To secure the support of Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), Democratic leadership reached a side deal with Manchin that would overhaul the process for approving new energy initiatives and expedite the 300-mile-long Mountain Valley Pipeline project — a natural gas pipeline across West Virginia and Virginia that those rallying in D.C. on Thursday have opposed for years. Ozane, an organizer for Healthy Gulf, an environmental justice organization, was one of the hundreds protesting Thursday at the Robert A. Taft Memorial Carillon, joining people from Appalachia and as far away as Alaska to demand that lawmakers reject this side deal, said Grace Tuttle, a lead organizer of the rally who has been advocating against the Mountain Valley Pipeline for three years. Tuttle said the demonstration will be a show of solidarity among communities affected “first and worst” by fossil fuel developments.The landmark Inflation Reduction Act will significantly advance the fight against climate change, spending about $370 billion to bring the country closer to achieving the emissions cuts scientists say are required to avoid the devastating consequences of the Earth’s warming. Rally organizers argue that the side deal, if passed, would “gut bedrock environmental protections, threaten tribal authority, endanger public health, fast-track fossil fuel projects, cut public input and push approval for Manchin’s pet project, the Mountain Valley Pipeline.”

Developer gets extension on LNG terminal - A company that wants to build New Jersey’s first terminal for exporting liquefied natural gas will get three more years to do so, water regulators at the Delaware River Basin Commission decided Thursday. The regulator’s commissioners — the governors of the four basin states plus a federal government representative — approved a resolution that extended a permit to build a dock on the Delaware River at Gibbstown until June 2025. The extension had already been approved by the commission’s executive director, Steve Tambini, but he sought a final decision from the commissioners after objections from environmental groups including Delaware Riverkeeper Network. The vote, with four in favor and one — New York state — abstaining, was a blow to Riverkeeper and other critics who have strongly opposed the project since it was proposed in 2019, and argued that Tambini exceeded his authority in approving the extension in June. “Today’s approval by the DRBC of the unjustified permit extension for the Gibbstown LNG export dock was a terrible mistake,” said Tracy Carluccio, deputy director of Riverkeeper. “The fact that they voted without public participation is a throwback to the shameful days when decisions were not made by substantive and public review but behind closed doors where the facts are not shared transparently and secret backroom deals are simply given an obligatory nod to legitimate them.” Riverkeeper and other opponents had hoped that they could delay or even derail the dock construction, which is part of a plan to ship super-cooled natural gas by truck or train from northeast Pennsylvania to Gibbstown where it would be loaded onto ships for export. The overall project, now estimated by the developer to cost $113 million, has been delayed by administrative and legal problems including a quasi-judicial hearing in May 2020 in which objectors put their arguments but resulted in the commission affirming its earlier approval.

Midwest grid operator feels heat as it signals need for gas - Grid operators like to be known as the Switzerland of energy: agnostic to the policies and fuels that keep the lights on and air conditioners humming. But recent actions by the Midcontinent Independent System Operator have some critics questioning MISO’s neutrality on an increasingly divisive issue: the role of natural gas in a cleaner grid. In July, MISO sent a letter to the Rural Utilities Service in support of a $600 million gas-fired power plant, an owner of which is seeking federal financing for its share of the project in Superior, Wis. Opponents contend the proposed plant, which has been approved by utility regulators in the states it would serve, isn’t needed and that cleaner options exist. Weeks later during a public briefing with Missouri regulators about how to meet the need for generating capacity in the state, a MISO executive told regulators, “We’re going to need some type of gas asset in the footprint that we can rely on.” In both instances, environmental groups and clean energy advocates said, the comments went too far given MISO’s role as the operator of the region’s electricity markets and its longstanding pledge to be indifferent to technology and policy. “It’s not appropriate for MISO to be putting their thumb on the scales of a certain technology like gas,” Andy Knott, central region director of Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign, said of MISO’s comments to the Missouri Public Service Commission. Knott said gas- and coal-fired generators weren’t all reliable energy sources during Winter Storm Uri in 2021 when millions of homes and businesses lost power. Melissa Seymour, the MISO vice president who made the comment to the Missouri Public Service Commission about gas, said the grid operator isn’t advocating for development of gas-fired generation or abandoning its fuel-agnostic stance. Seymour said coal-fueled generating capacity in Missouri is projected to shut down at a faster rate than it’s being replaced, leaving a gap. And it’s a gap MISO contends cannot solely be filled with renewables and batteries. That’s because generators provide more than just energy. They also offer other grid attributes needed for reliability, such as the ability to ramp up quickly and be dispatched on demand as well as provide voltage support. “Today, the only thing that we’re aware of that would provide those attributes are gas units,” Seymour said.

Huge amount of money' in climate law could spawn gas bans - The climate and energy law signed by President Joe Biden last month may reshape a national tug of war over gas bans and electrification, with the outcome influencing emissions and fossil fuel development for decades. Billions of dollars in new federal funds from the Inflation Reduction Act are set to flow to building owners and residents who swap out gas boilers, stoves and water heaters for electric-powered technologies. The dollars come on top of city-level policies in at least seven states banning fossil fuels in new buildings, including dozens of municipalities in California that followed the city of Berkeley in enacting the nation’s first gas ban in 2019. New York City, Seattle and much of the state of Washington followed with similar measures. Additional bans could emerge in new jurisdictions partly because of the new federal law, some electrification advocates said. The climate law signed by Biden in August “totally transforms all of those conversations [over banning fossil fuels] and makes all of this so, so much easier,” said Ben Furnas, a former sustainability chief for New York City, where lawmakers passed a law last year prohibiting new buildings from using fossil fuel heat, starting in 2023 (Energywire, Dec. 15, 2021). Yet gas advocates are vowing to fight electrification mandates, and they may get help from state officials, existing statutes and a lawsuit in California. Twenty states also have passed laws that preempt cities from restricting buildings’ access to fossil fuels, meaning the Inflation Reduction Act’s voluntary electrification programs won’t lead to New York City-style bans. “Over the past three years, we have seen the energy policy debate veer away from reducing greenhouse gas emissions to an anti-fossil fuel and anti-infrastructure push,” said George Lowe, vice president of governmental affairs and public policy for the American Gas Association, in a written statement. Limiting fossil fuel access is a “mistake” that would “negatively impact customers and keep us from achieving our shared goals” for decarbonization, Lowe added. “Over the next several years, we will continue to see these debates play out in state capitols across the country,” he predicted.

U.S. Coast Guard probes natgas pipeline explosion at Lake Lery, Louisiana | Reuters -The U.S. Coast Guard said on Thursday that it was responding to a natural gas pipeline explosion at Lake Lery, Louisiana, and there have been no reports of injuries, casualties or pollution, it said in a statement on Friday.The Coast Guard received a report of a large fire at Lake Lery, it said in a release."The pipeline has been secured. The cause of the incident remains under investigation."A Coast Guard spokesperson identified the line involved as the TOCA LINE, operated by Third Coast High Point Gas Transmission LLC, adding the fire was still burning at present.The company could not be immediately reached for comment."Preliminary information indicates a barge broke loose from its mooring and impacted the pipeline," a spokesperson from the U.S. Pipeline And Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) said."The pipeline has been shut down and the affected section of pipe has been isolated. Remaining gas will be allowed to burn off. PHMSA will continue to monitor this event."

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Shed Over 5% On Soaring Output - U.S. natural gas futures shed around 5% on Tuesday, hitting a four-week low as soaring output coupled with lower demand forecasts drags prices down, despite the fact that inventories are 11% lower than their five-year norm. U.S. natural gas was down 5.2% at 1:10 p.m. EST, to $8.38. Output is still holding strong after the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending August 26, which showed a natural gas inventory build of 61 billion cubic feet. While that brings inventory to 2,640 Bcf, it is still 228 Bcf below levels at the same time last year–heading into the winter season. Also prompting the decline is the outage at the key Freeport LNG export plant on the Gulf coast. That outage means traders are calculating some 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day that is not being consumed by Freeport for export and is remaining on the domestic market. Freeport–which accounts for some 20% of U.S. LNG export capacity–looks set to remain offline until sometime in the first half of November, at which point we could see only a partial startup, ramping up to full capacity by the end of that month. Freeport, however, has already pushed back a restart date several times since declaring force majeure–and then revoking it–in June. On June 8, Freeport suffered an explosion, causing the plant to shut down for damage assessment and repairs. So far in September, even with the Freeport outage, Refinitiv data showed a rise in the average volume of natural gas being pumped into American LNG export plants to 11.2 Bcfd, up from the average of 11 Bcfd last month. Globally, natural gas prices continue to soar on the twin developments of supply disruptions and sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Prices continue on a fast upward trajectory in the aftermath of Russia’s cutoff of flows to Germany through Nord Stream 1 last week.

U.S. natgas futures drop 7% to near 4-week low on record output - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 7% to a four-week low on Tuesday as output soared to a record high over the weekend and on forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected. In the U.S. West, however, spot power prices for Tuesday jumped in California and other states to their highest since California's electric grid operator imposed rotating outages in August 2020 as a brutal heat wave baked the drought-stricken region for more than a week. California's grid operator urged consumers to conserve energy for a seventh day in a row on Tuesday as the heat strains the grid and significantly increases the likelihood of rotating outages. The decline in futures prices, meanwhile, also came as the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas leaves more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Front-month gas futures fell 64.1 cents, or 7.3%, to $8.145 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Aug. 9. That was the biggest one-day percentage decline since June. So far this year, gas futures were up about 119%, as higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong. Global gas prices have soared due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $70 per mmBtu in Europe and $55 in Asia. Russian gas exports via the three main lines into Germany - Nord Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route - averaged just 1.4 bcfd so far in September, down from 2.5 bcfd in August and 10.8 bcfd in September 2021. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.7 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide to 92.3 bcfd next week from 96.8 bcfd this week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday before the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.2 bcfd so far in September from 11.0 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. The reduction in exports from Freeport is a problem for Europe, where most U.S. LNG has gone this year as countries there wean themselves off Russian energy.

Natural Gas Futures Prices Fall Further Amid Threats to LNG Exports, Waning Weather Demand - Natural gas prices dropped again Wednesday as traders assessed receding domestic demand prospects, rising production and possible peril for American LNG exports. The October Nymex gas futures contract settled at $7.842/MMBtu, down 30.3 cents day/day. November fell 31.1 cents to $7.901. Wednesday’s prompt month loss followed a 47.6-cent sell-off ahead of Labor Day Weekend and another 64.1-cent nosedive on Tuesday.Cash prices followed suit. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 37.0 cents to $7.925 on Wednesday after losing 31.0 cents the prior day. NatGasWeather analysts attributed “strong selling” in large part to cooler temperature trends and robust production. The firm said national demand was expected to ease late this week and into next week as weather systems usher in rain and lower temperatures across large swaths of the Lower 48, including Texas and the West. U.S. production, meanwhile, hovered near 100 Bcf on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg’s estimate, putting output around an all-time high. Additionally, as EBW Analytics Group analyst Eli Rubin pointed out, an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decision against waiving an emissions limit requirement for turbines at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s liquefied natural gas facilities further empowered bears.The affected Cheniere operations at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi currently account for more than half of U.S. LNG exports, “and any disruption could create chaos for U.S. and global natural gas markets,” Rubin said Wednesday. At issue: The Biden administration’s EPA is reviving enforcement of the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants, which aims to limit carcinogenic emissions after an 18-year stay, Rubin noted. As part of this, the agency denied Cheniere’s bid for an exemption from the rule. A Cheniere spokesperson said the change would not lead to any material impacts, given that the company can adjust gradually over time. This likely will happen over several years, Rubin said. “Alternatively, Cheniere may opt to pay noncompliance fines to ensure continued operations,” Rubin added. “Either solution is unlikely to disrupt near-term U.S. LNG exports.” Still, any specter of LNG disruption is bound to spook natural gas traders, he said, given mounting global demand. Europe’s outsized LNG appetite, in particular, is expected to endure as the continent endeavors to transition away from Russian gas imports amid the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

Natural Gas Futures Rebound After Storage Print Punctuates Magnitude of Robust Summer Demand - After steep drops the three prior sessions, natural gas futures bounced back Thursday, as traders digested a bullish inventory report – relative to historic norms – that reminded how strong demand proved over the bulk of summer. The October Nymex gas futures contract climbed 7.3 cents day/day and settled at $7.915/MMBtu. November gained 7.0 cents to $7.971. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., however, shed 11.5 cents to $7.810. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 54 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Sept. 2. The print came in roughly on par with expectations found by major polls, but it fell shy of the five-year average build of 65 Bcf. Analysts said it reflected the intense late-summer heat across large swaths of the country – continuing a summer-long trend of strong, steady demand for gas to cool homes and power businesses. EIA estimated U.S. consumption of natural gas would average 86.6 Bcf/d in 2022, up 3.6 Bcf/d from last year. Working gas in storage rose to 2,694 Bcf as of Sept. 2, according to EIA. However, stocks were 222 Bcf lower than a year earlier and 349 Bcf below the five-year average. Production climbed in late August and early this month, reaching a 2022 high this week, yet output has yet to fully align with demand. EIA estimated in a separate report this week that gas inventories ended August at 2.7 Tcf, 12% lower than the five-year average. It projected stocks would close the injection season around 3.4 Tcf, 7% below the five-year average. By region, the Midwest and East last week led with injections of 29 Bcf and 21 Bcf, respectively, according to EIA. The South Central increase of 6 Bcf followed and included a 9 Bcf injection into nonsalt facilities. Utilities withdrew 3 Bcf from salts. Mountain region stocks increased by 2 Bcf, while Pacific inventories fell by 3 Bcf. Early estimates submitted to Reuters for the week ending Sept. 9 showed an expected mean increase of 64 Bcf. That would again fall short of averages for this time of year. The actual build in the comparable week of 2021 was 78 Bcf and the five-year average was 82 Bcf. So far this month, some of the most intense heat – and greatest gas demand – has been in the West. Triple-digit temperatures have scorched stretches of California and the Southwest. “The heatwave that had started in California last week is still ongoing, and several decades-old temperature records were hit throughout the state” to date in September, Rystad Energy analyst Ryan Kronk said. The California Independent System Operator, the state’s grid operator, warned that capacity did not meet forecast demand Thursday; the same was true the four prior days. “This will bring increased power prices and higher chances of blackouts,” Kronk said. Power prices this week are “by far the highest California has experienced in the summer in the last decade.”

U.S. natgas futures up 1% on warmer forecasts for mid/late September - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up 1% on Friday on forecasts for warmer weather and higher gas demand in mid- to late September. In the West, a tropical storm approaching Southern California threatened to bring high winds that could whip up wildfires and heavy rainfall that could trigger flash floods, but the system will likely bring relief from a brutal, 10-day heat wave. The increase in gas futures came despite the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Front-month gas futures rose 8.1 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $7.996 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That put the contract down about 9% for the week after sliding about 5% last week. It was the contract's biggest weekly loss since late June and the first time it fell for three weeks in a row since early July. So far this year, gas futures were up about 115% as higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong. Global gas prices have soared due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.1 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 97.4 bcfd this week to 92.9 bcfd next week as the weather cools before rising to 93.3 bcfd in two weeks as the weather warms again. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.1 bcfd so far in September from 11.0 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.

 Why so many LNG terminals are adopting carbon capture - Liquefied natural gas companies are increasingly investing in carbon capture and storage to limit their emissions and bolster their climate credentials, despite the absence of a regulatory requirement for them to do so. They are voluntarily embracing the still sparsely deployed technology as a way to stay ahead of regulations at home and abroad and to maintain a social license to operate in a world that is increasingly anxious to contain emissions. U.S. LNG exporters such as Cheniere Energy Inc., NextDecade Corp. and Sempra Energy have announced plans in the last few years to use CCS to capture a share of their carbon emissions associated with liquefaction and transport of gas. Those efforts contrast with potential mandates on other industries. A Supreme Court decision this summer and the historic climate legislation passed last month have conspired to boost the likelihood that other sectors, like electric power, will soon face Clean Air Act regulations based on CCS. Cheniere spokesperson Eben Burnham-Snyder said in an email to E&E News that the company sees CCS as “a promising technology to support our climate strategies to reduce the greenhouse gas footprint of our product.” He added that the climate spending bill known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which expanded the 45Q tax incentive for capturing and storing carbon, “considerably improves the economics of CCS and likely accelerates the implementation of these solutions.” The LNG industry’s embrace of CCS is remarkable in light of the costs associated with the technology and the fact LNG isn’t likely to face mandates to use it any time soon. The International Energy Agency estimates the cost of CCS at a generic facility between $175 and $400 per ton, though that would now be partially offset by the 45Q tax credit of $85 per ton.

EPA Denies Permit For Proposed Bluewater Terminal In Texas -The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has denied a permit for a major offshore oil terminal proposed on the Gulf Coast near Corpus Christi, ruling that the Bluewater Texas terminal would need to reduce its toxic air pollution by about 95 percent. The Bluewater Texas offshore terminal, proposed in the Gulf about 25 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, is designed to handle 1.9 million barrels of crude oil per day from crude oil tankers, which would connect with the port via floating oil hoses. Bluewater Texas Terminal LLC applied to the EPA for a Clean Air Act permit to build the offshore oil terminal on May 30, 2019. It was supposed to export up to 384 million barrels of crude oil per year on large tanker ships. “We are relieved that EPA listened to the public and decided that this ridiculous project needs pollution controls after all,” said Gabriel Clark-Leach, Attorney for the Environmental Integrity Project, which objected to the permit with a coalition of 15 allied organizations. “EPA’s regulations require marine vessel loading operations—like the Bluewater port—to reduce toxic air pollution by 95 percent. The application of this rule will reduce the amount of pollution the Bluewater terminal – if it is built — will emit by a whopping 18,000 tons each year.” On November 12, 2020, EPA released a draft air pollution control permit for the terminal that would allow Bluewater to emit around 19,000 tons per year of emissions, 833 tons per year of air pollutants annually, including 66 tons per year of benzene, Environmental Integrity Project explained. In written comments submitted to the EPA on January 11, 2021, the environmental groups argued that EPA must amend the draft permit to require pollution controls that would reduce Bluewater’s emissions by at least 95 percent. The groups argued that these controls, including vapor recovery and vapor combustion systems, are legally mandated under the Clean Air Act.

$168M in Permian Basin oil and gas assets sold amid market growth - Despite a dip in oil prices to start September, energy companies continued to ramp up fossil fuel operations in the Permian Basin of southeast New Mexico and West Texas, riding an upward trend in fuel demand.The deal included about 37,000 acres of oil and gas development, mostly in Crane County, Texas, south of Odessa, Texas.

USD 2.23 billion growth in Oil Shale Market Size With 47% of the Contribution from North America -- The latest market analysis report titled Oil Shale Market by Application and Geography - Forecast and Analysis 2022-2026 has been added to Technavio's catalog. The report predicts the market to witness an accelerating growth momentum at a CAGR of 14.18%. The analysts at Technavio have categorized the global oil shale market as a part of the global oil and gas exploration and production market within the global oil and gas market under the energy sector. Our report provides extensive information on the value chain analysis for the oil shale market, which vendors can leverage to gain a competitive advantage during the forecast period. The data available in our value chain analysis segment can help vendors drive costs and enhance customer services during the forecast period. The report on the oil shale market provides a holistic update, market size and forecast, trends, growth drivers, challenges, and vendor analysis. The rising use of oil shale across various industries is one of the key factors likely to influence market growth positively during the forecast period. Some countries, such as Israel, Jordan, and Morocco, are interested in developing their oil shale resources since they have large quantities but lack alternative fossil fuels. Such factors are likely to positively impact the growth of the global oil shale market during the forecast period. However, The environmental impacts of shale oil extraction will be a major challenge for the oil shale market during the forecast period. The environmental effect of the global oil shale market takes into account concerns including land use, waste management, and water and air pollution caused by oil shale extraction and processing. The extraction of oil from shale has the potential to have a significant environmental impact. Such challenges are likely to affect the growth of the global oil shale market.47% of the market's growth will originate from North Americaduring the forecast period. US and Canada are the key markets for oil shale in North America. Market growth in this region will be faster than the growth of the market in other regions. The rising depletion of non-renewable energy sources, the demand for a cost-effective alternative to conventional energy, and the region growing oil and energy industry will facilitate the oil shale market growth in North America over the forecast period.

Oil and gas lease ban upheld in court, could set stage for future block in New Mexico --A federal judge upheld the government’s authority to block oil and gas leases on public land in New Mexico and other states after the administration of President Joe Biden did so upon assuming office in 2021.At the start of Biden’s tenure in office, the U.S. Department of Interior imposed a temporary halt on new federal oil and gas leases, seeking to reform its fossil fuel programs and intending to address the environmental impacts of extraction.The move drew immediate outcry from the oil and gas industry and its supporters, with several Republican-led states not including New Mexico suing the DOI and asserting the block on new leases was illegal under federal law.That summer, the DOI completed its review and sought to increase royalty rates and address pollution during an expanded review process that was also subsequently challenged in separate litigation.Lease sales resumed in New Mexico, with the Bureau of Land Management conducted a sale June 30, 2022 after reconducting its environmental reviews and imposed an increased royalty rate of 18.75 percent from the past rate of 12.5 percent.The sale included about 536 acres in Lea and Chaves county, targeting the southeast New Mexico Permian Basin region, and earned about $632,385.The BLM had yet to plan a subsequent sale despite calls from industry leaders that not leasing the land for energy production could stymie the industry and threaten U.S. fuel supplies. And despite the recent sale, critics of the federal government continued to challenge the administration’s authority in imposing the halt or subsequent pauses in Wyoming federal court.

Eagle County fires first volley in appeal of Uinta Basin train decision -Eagle County has fired its first volley in a last-ditch battle to block plans for millions of gallons of crude oil a week rolling along rails next to the Colorado River. The county joins several environmental groups appealing the Surface Transportation Board’s 2020 approval of an 88-mile stretch of new railroad in Utah connecting the state’s oil fields in Uinta Basin with the national rail network. The decision set the stage for 65,000 to 350,000 barrels of Uinta Basin waxy crude to roll through Colorado every day in 100-tanker-long trains, stretching 10,000 feet, as they cover a route running mostly along the Colorado River. Eagle County and several environmental groups are asking the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., to overturn the transportation’s board approval, noting the board’s “uninformed decision-making” in its environmental review of the project and “increased risk of environmental harm” from increased oil production and processing. “The railway not only increases ignition risks for dangerous disasters such as wildfires, it also will lead to the exploitation and burning of fossil fuels contributing to climate change, which will expose Eagle County and its residents to increased threats from extreme heat, extreme drought, and extreme weather, including fire- and flash flood-triggering thunderstorms,” reads a declaration by Eagle County Manager Jeff Shroll in the county’s opening brief filed this month. “In other words, the railway could both be lighting the match and fanning the flames for future impacts on Eagle County.” The groups and Eagle County point to how the quintupling of oil production in the Uinta Basin — producing up to 430,000 barrels of oil a day and requiring 3,330 new oil wells — would have “indirect effects” that include risks to the environment on the train route between Utah and Gulf Coast refineries and the climate impacts from processing and burning that oil. Eagle County’s opening brief argues the transportation board’s environmental review also failed to consider the impact of potential oil spills from 35 trains a week carrying millions of gallons of waxy-crude oil, along the Colorado River from the Utah border, through the Grand Valley and Glenwood Canyon into Grand County. Right now the thick crude from the Uinta Basin is trucked to refineries near Salt Lake City, which has limited production from the oil-rich basin and spurred the development of a railway.

Climate damage from oil leases on US land gets second look (AP) — The Biden administration reached a legal settlement Tuesday that requires the government to reexamine potential climate damages from oil and gas leases put up for sale under the Trump administration on government land in Montana and North Dakota.Similar deals have been reached in recent weeks for lease sales covering thousands of square miles public lands under the Trump and Obama administrations in Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.Tuesday’s settlement between the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and environmental groups involves parcels totaling 91 square miles (235 square kilometers) and was detailed in documents filed in U.S. District Court in Montana. About a quarter of U.S. fossil fuels comes from federal lands and waters, making them important for industry and also a prime target for climate activists who want to shut down leasing.The state of Wyoming and American Petroleum Institute opposed attempts to revisit previously sold leases. They argued that leasing decisions were final after 90 days and any changes now could financially harm companies. WildEarth Guardians, Sierra Club and other groups had sued over the sales. They’re hopeful President Joe Biden’s administration will curb drilling on the leased parcels after climate damages and other future potential pollution are considered.

Wyoming judge sides with Biden on federal leases -  The Biden administration legally postponed the oil and gas lease sales scheduled for the first quarter of 2021, a federal judge ruled Friday, in a blow to Wyoming and oil and gas industry groups.  U.S. District Judge Scott W. Skavdahl of Wyoming determined that the first-quarter delays “were not arbitrary, capricious, or an abuse of discretion,” rejecting arguments from the state, the Western Energy Alliance and the Petroleum Association of Wyoming that they were.

Judge rules for tribe in Line 5 suit, says Enbridge is trespassing and must pay damages - Short of an order to decommission the Line 5 pipeline, an Ojibwe tribe on the south shore of Lake Superior secured a different legal victory Thursday in its federal lawsuit against Canadian pipeline company Enbridge. The Bad River Band of the Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians has been locked in a legal battle with Enbridge since July 2019 over the company’s continued operation through 12 miles of Bad River Reservation land, despite a major easement between the parties being expired since 2013. The embattled Line 5 pipeline originates at the tip of Northwest Wisconsin and continues for 645 miles into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, under the Straits of Mackinac and out into Canada near Detroit. The pipeline corridor that traverses through the Bad River Reservation is approximately 60 feet wide and transports about 23 million gallons of crude oil and natural gas liquids daily. In the 56-page ruling in Wisconsin’s Western U.S District Court, Judge William Conley found that Enbridge has been trespassing since then and should pay damages to the tribe. He at one point called one of Enbridge’s arguments “tone-deaf and meritless.” Conley did not move to immediately decommission Line 5, as the tribe had ultimately hoped, for “public policy reasons” that require the input of more parties. But the judge did put a five-year timeline in place for Enbridge to build an off-reservation reroute — which the tribe also opposes for environmental reasons — or face increased monetary penalties. “This ruling is a turning point in the battle to protect Indigenous rights and the Great Lakes — it underscores again why Enbridge Energy should shut down Line 5,” said Beth Wallace, Great Lakes freshwater campaigns manager for the National Wildlife Federation (NWF). “This is a major victory in a battle that should have never taken place. The ruling shows that Line 5 should have been shut down in 2013. Enbridge does not deserve additional time to inflict harm on the Bad River Band,” Wallace continued. Since the tribe did not request a specific amount of monetary relief and neither side addressed how a profits-based remedy should be calculated, Conley said parties will now submit supplemental briefings on how the court should determine the monetary relief to which the tribe is entitled, and whether the ultimate decision of a dollar amount should be resolved by the court or a jury.

 Judge: Pipeline Can Operate on Reservation Amid Reroute Work - (AP) — A federal judge will allow an oil and gas pipeline to continue to flow on a northern Wisconsin American Indian reservation while its operators work to reroute the line around the tribal land.The Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa sued Enbridge in 2019 demanding it remove the section of line that runs across the tribe’s reservation in Ashland County. The tribe is concerned the pipeline could rupture and contaminate its drinking water.Enbridge has been working on a 40-mile reroute around the reservation.Western District Judge William Conley ruled Wednesday the company can continue to operate the line on the reservation until its relocation project is finished.The Line 5 pipeline carries oil and natural gas liquids from Superior to Sarnia, Ontario. Enbridge said agreements have been reached with all private landowners along the new route for the pipeline.The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is currently finalizing an environmental impact statement for the project. The agency’s draft environmental impact statement drew intense criticism from environmental groups, tribal members and activists who argued it didn’t adequately evaluate impacts, including the risk of spills.Last month, the DNR investigated a possible spill near the Bad River Reservation after a contractor reported some contaminated soil south of Ashland. Enbridge officials said they couldn’t find a leak in the pipeline and believe the contamination was from a past discharge, according to the DNR.

Oil company settles criminal cases in California spill - An oil company on Thursday pleaded guilty in federal court to negligently discharging crude off the Southern California coast when its underwater pipeline ruptured last year, a spill that closed miles of shoreline and shuttered fisheries. Meanwhile, Houston-based Amplify Energy and two of its subsidiaries agreed to enter no contest pleas to killing birds and water pollution in court on Friday in a settlement with the county and state officials stemming from the same October 2021 oil spill. Amplify's pipeline broke off the Orange County coast, spilling about 25,000 gallons (94,600 liters) of oil into the Pacific Ocean. The rupture closed beaches for a week and fisheries for more than a month, oiled birds and threatened local wetlands. "Amplify unequivocally hit the snooze button. They knew they had a leak. Their leak detection system detected a leak," said Orange County District Attorney Todd Spitzer. "Over and over, they kept ignoring it. That is criminal and that is why they've been charged." Spitzer and state Attorney General Rob Bonta announced the filing of six misdemeanor state charges against the company and two of its subsidiaries from the spill. The company will plead no contest to all six charges and pay $4.9 million in penalties and fines as part of a settlement, Spitzer said. Bonta called the penalty "historic," believed to be the largest state misdemeanor criminal fine ever in Orange County. The company will also be placed on 12 months of probation and make changes designed to avoid future spills, including increased inspections and technology to detect leaks, Bonta said.

Feds Seek to Reverse Offshore Fracking Moratorium off California Coast - The fight against fracking off the California coast still isn’t over. On Wednesday, the Department of Justice asked for a new hearing to again hash out whether an environmental review is required before fracking and acidizing permits are given to oil companies. Their moving papers are deeply in the regulatory weeds but argue that the appeals court ruling could affect offshore wind energy. Back in 2012, the Santa Barbara–based Environmental Defense Center (EDC) made the extraordinary discovery that the feds had issued 51 permits to frack and acidize offshore wells, including in the Santa Barbara Channel. Through lawsuits and appeals, EDC’s attorneys succeeded in convincing the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals that fracking and acidizing used toxic chemicals and that an environmental impact statement was necessary to evaluate the potential harm; they also argued that the impact to endangered species, such as the Southern sea otter, meant that U.S. Fish & Wildlife should be consulted. “Put simply,” said EDC Chief Counsel Linda Krop, “we caught the government issuing permits for these really risky and polluting practices on our platforms. They’ve been told twice now that they can’t do that until they follow the environmental laws. But instead of doing that, they keep asking for relief. Instead of following the law, they keep fighting us,” Krop said on Thursday. It was really frustrating, she added, especially because Kamala Harris was California’s attorney general when the state’s lawsuit was filed in 2016. “When Biden took office, and Kamala Harris was his vice president, we thought, ‘Oh good, we can probably resolve this case,'” Krop said. The State of California had entered the case to assert the Coastal Commission must verify the federal action was consistent with the state’s coastal management plan. That consistency had not been ascertained, and the state won that appeal. The Center for Biological Diversity joined the suit in 2016. According to attorney Kristen Monsell, the government had attempted its technical challenge several times before: “Twice in district court and again before the Ninth Circuit — and lost every time,” Monsell said. “Their position is inconsistent with well-established caselaw, and we’re confident this bid to get the Ninth Circuit’s decision overturned will be rejected. One of the red herrings in the Petition for Rehearing En Banc filed by the feds on Wednesday is the implication that offshore fracking is gone. The petition states several times that no permits currently exist to allow well stimulation in the Pacific, adding, “No one is authorized to perform such treatments on the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf at this time.” Krop agreed the existing permits had expired, but she said the only reason no new permits had been issued was because the EDC had won an injunction to block them until environmental review was completed. And the oil companies definitely wanted to resume well stimulations because of the thickness of the crude they were encountering.

Drought Forces British Columbia To Suspend Water Permits For Oil Firms -Persistent drought in the Canadian province of British Columbia has prompted the local energy regulator to ration water use in the oil and gas industry and suspend some permits to firms for drawing water from rivers and lakes. CBC News reports that the BC Oil and Gas Commission (BCOGC) suspended on Thursday as many as 20 water permits previously granted to 12 oil and gas firms in several areas. “Low stream conditions are escalating concerns for impacts to fish, aquatic resources, and community supply,” the B.C. energy regulator wrote in a directive to the energy industry. Meteorologists have declared level 3 drought conditions in parts of northeastern British Columbia, and according to experts and the BCOGC, water levels are expected to continue dropping in the coming weeks. Rainfall has been scarce since early July, and drought conditions are expected to persist through September, CBC meteorologist Johanna Wagstaffe says. The energy regulator is also monitoring other rivers and lakes, and could suspend additional permits in the near future if levels drop too low. The BCOGC will help the energy firms “identify options for alternative short-term water supply.” The previous such suspension was in 2019 when the B.C. energy regulator suspended water drawing for a month because of a drought. This year, drought conditions in the northern hemisphere have tightened the energy markets in Europe and China just as the EU grapples with a worsening energy crisis. A combination of record-breaking natural gas prices, rising coal prices, and droughts across Europe puts the EU electricity market under massive pressure. China imposed last month shutdowns on industrial production in the Sichuan province as heatwaves and extreme drought in its southwestern regions boosted electricity demand while reducing hydropower production in the largest hydropower-generating province. In Sichuan, hydropower generation from the Yangtze River was falling, and factories were closing to ease the pressure on the grids.

Energy crisis lifeline: Truss primed to scrap red tape and end fracking ban 'within days' - The Foreign Secretary is reportedly planning on lifting the ban on fracking "within days" of becoming the next Prime Minister. Ms Truss is urged by industry experts to issue sweeping reforms on planning laws alongside a revival of fracking. Fracking, the process of extracting shale gas, was banned in 2019 after scientific analysis exposed the risk of seismic activity from the practice. The industry warned the Tory leadership favourite that “comprehensive policy support” was needed in order to speed up planning and environmental permissions for fracking. Ms Truss has repeatedly advocated for a return to the controversial gas extraction process, as a way to boost the UK’s energy security in the face of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. She recently reinforced the stance by telling BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that extracting shale gas with onshore drilling was among her priorities. This came after reports claimed she would end the ban on fracking “within days” of becoming prime minister. However, the fracking industry has warned that in order to begin drilling with speed, Ms Truss would need to free companies from planning and regulatory burdens, according to the Telegraph. Charles McAllister, director at UK Onshore oil and gas, said: “In order to facilitate timely UK shale gas production in the national interest, comprehensive policy support from the Government is required. “This should include reform to the pace of decision making in planning and environmental permitting as well as ensuring that seismicity regulations for the industry are consistent with other sectors, such as quarrying and geothermal. “The failure to develop the abundant Bowland Shale in the north of England poses unacceptable economic, environmental and geopolitical risks to the UK.”

 Exclusive: Fracking revival draws mixed response from industry analysts The growing possibility of fracking being revived in the UK has drawn a mixed response from energy analysts and think tanks. Liz Truss is widely expected to lift the moratorium on fracking within days, as the new Prime Minister is eager to ramp up domestic energy generation to meet the country’s consumption needs. This is an increasingly urgent issue - amid sustained fears of supply shortages this winter and spiralling energy bills, with the price cap set to rise to an eye-watering £3,549 per year in October. Kathryn Porter, energy consultant at Watt Logic told City A.M. she was in favour of easing requirements concerning tremor limits, which she believed should cap seismic activity to 2.5 on the Richter scale for fracking. This would be in line with geothermal drilling, and significantly higher than the current limits at 0.5 on the scale. However, she was unsure if there were sufficient supplies that could be affordably extracted to meet domestic energy demand. She said: “There are good reasons to believe that there are meaningful qualities of shale gas in Britain – the question is can it be extracted economically, and this is uncertain. We will only know if we allow exploratory drilling to re-start. I believe we should make every effort to increase domestic gas production, and properly evaluate the potential for shale gas.” The analyst warned the UK remained “decades away” from phasing out fossil fuels, meaning gas and oil that could be produced domestically without relying on overseas vendors would remain attractive for security and environmental reasons. Porter concluded: “Increasing production is the only credible way out of the current crisis, only a global increase in output to replace Russian gas will bring down prices. Whether British shale gas production can contribute to this is unclear, but it certainly won’t if we don’t re-start exploration.”

OEUK Hopes New PM Will Lead Nation Towards Energy Security - Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) greeted the announcement of Liz Truss as the UK’s new Conservative Party leader as a fresh chance to renew the nation’s approach to energy security and accelerate the transition to cleaner energies with careful long-term investment in its home-grown oil and gas resources. OEUK said that the new Prime Minister would need to balance the short-term challenge of helping families pay their bills with the longer-term challenge of keeping the lights on while tackling the climate emergency. “There is enough oil and gas in the UK continental shelf to power the UK into the 2040s and fuel the transition to renewables. OEUK stands ready to work closely with the new prime ministerial team in number 10 Downing Street and with the Chancellor as they are announced in the coming hours and days. OEUK has written to the incoming Prime Minister to propose a new summit for ministers and energy producers to help plan the way ahead,” OEUK stated. In her victory speech, Liz Truss made it clear that energy security and helping consumers is top of her priority list. OEUK welcomes her to this role at an extraordinary time for people and businesses across the UK and will work with her team from day one to deliver energy security for this country at the same time as the industry paying taxes to the treasury and supports around 200,000 jobs across the UK. “We welcome Liz Truss to her new role and wish her all the very best in challenging times. A big prime ministerial inbox awaits, on top of which sits UK energy security and its critical place in countering the threat from Putin’s weaponization of energy. As the new PM has said, we need to find a two-pronged solution both in the short- and long-term to the energy crisis.” “OEUK and our members remain steadfast partners for government, and we work with political parties of all colors to ensure we carefully nurture and invest in our homegrown oil and gas industry and boost its enablement of our transition to a renewable future. We look forward to meeting with the new PM and her top team shortly and ensuring our members are front and center of the conversations and the solutions,” OEUK’s Acting CEO, Mike Tholen, said. OEUK is the leading trade body for the UK’s offshore energy industries. Its 400 member organizations employ 200,000 people, 10,000 of them offshore, producing energy from oil, gas, and offshore wind. They produce, for example, about 40 percent of the UK’s gas supplies – a vital bulwark against the current global shortages. About 85 percent of UK homes rely on gas for heating. Gas is also essential to produce about 42 percent of UK power. Elizabeth Truss was appointed Prime Minister by Queen Elizabeth on September 6, 2022. She was previously Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Affairs from September 15, 2021.

UK Oil Industry Urges PM to Speed New North Sea Licenses - The UK’s offshore oil and gas industry called on new Prime Minister Liz Truss to speed the approval of more exploration licenses to help boost domestic fuel supplies. The lobby group identified £26 billion ($30 billion) of potential investments in the North Sea by the end of the decade that would enable the UK to meet about half its demand for oil and gas from domestic supplies. Without these projects, fuel demand would be met increasingly by imports, the group said. The UK’s petroleum industry has an opportunity to arrest its long-term decline as soaring energy prices bring concerns about security of supply to the fore. The situation threatens to devastate households and businesses this winter, and is already dominating Truss’s agenda just one day into her leadership. Linking the future of the North Sea to the way out of the current crisis could revive the fossil fuel industry even as the country seeks to transition to clean energy. “We need the new government to rapidly announce the next round of oil and gas exploration licenses and speed up production approvals,” said Mike Tholen, acting chief executive officer of Offshore Energies UK. “Our North Sea reserves mean the UK can protect itself -- provided we invest -- as well as building the low-carbon systems for the future.” In its annual economic report published on Wednesday, the industry group acknowledged that new investment won’t offer a near-term solution to the energy crisis. New fields currently under development won’t start producing until late 2026 with peak production coming a year later. That’s roughly in line with Shell Plc’s plans to bring on the Jackdaw gas field in the mid-2020s after taking a final investment decision on the project earlier this year. The push to boost the UK’s domestic oil and gas follows a long period when the main energy policy focus was on climate goals, and questions about whether investments in new fields should even be permitted. The country has committed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and the Climate Change Committee sees oil demand falling by as much as 98% if this pledge is fulfilled. Offshore Energies said there will be a major role for oil and gas in the UK’s energy mix even as the country moves toward this target. “We must expand the supply of low carbon energy including wind and hydrogen but the scale-up will take time,” Tholen said. “UK gas will give us a bedrock of reliable energy through the transition and minimize reliance on imports.”

UK PM Truss announces cap on energy bills and lifts ban on fracking - British Prime Minister Liz Truss said Thursday that her government will cap domestic energy prices for homes and businesses to ease a cost-of-living crisis that has left people and businesses across the UK facing a bleak winter. She also said she will approve more North Sea oil drilling and lift a ban on fracking in a bid to increase the UK's domestic energy supply. Ms. Truss told lawmakers in Parliament that the two-year "energy price guarantee" means average household bills will be no more than 2,500 pounds a year for heating and electricity. Bills had been due to rise to 3,500 pounds a year from October, triple the cost of a year ago. Bills are skyrocketing because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the economic aftershocks of Covid-19 and Brexit. "We are supporting this country through this winter and next and tackling the root causes of high prices so we are never in the same position again," Ms. Truss told lawmakers. Business and public institutions like hospitals and schools will also get support, but for six months rather than two years. The government says the cap will cut the UK's soaring inflation rate by 4 to 5 percentage points. Inflation hit 10.1% in July and has been forecast to rise to 13% before the end of the year. Read more New UK PM Truss promises to ride out economic storm with new-look top team The government hasn't said how much the price cap will cost, but estimates have put it at over 100 billion pounds. Ms. Truss has rejected opposition calls to impose a windfall tax on oil companies' profits. The cap will be paid for out of Treasury funds and by borrowing. The opposition Labour Party says that means British taxpayers will have to foot the bill. Labour energy spokesman Ed Miliband accused Ms. Truss of rejecting a windfall levy "purely on the basis of dogma." The announcement, on Ms. Truss’s second full day in office, comes after a summer in which the government refused to say how it would respond. Former prime minister Boris Johnson was not able to make major decisions after announcing in July that he would resign. Ms. Truss, who won the Conservative Party contest to replace Mr. Johnson as leader, declined to announce her plans before she was in office. Ms. Truss, a free-market conservative, has said she favors tax cuts over handouts, but has been forced to act by the scale of the crisis.

Fury as Liz Truss to allow fracking today despite her own Chancellor saying it won't work - Campaigners have reacted with fury as Liz Truss allows fracking today - despite her own Chancellor saying it won't solve the crisis. The Tory leader is expected to axe a 2019 ban on the fossil fuel extraction process as part of a wider energy bills strategy, announced at 11.30am. The Telegraph reported the change could be made quickly with a written statement to Parliament and the first permission requests for drilling could come within weeks. She is also expected to green-light a wave of oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. The manifesto-busting move enraged green groups, with Friends of the Earth saying it is "disruptive, unpopular and will do little to boost energy security or bring down bills". Critics questioned whether the policy will actually make much difference, since locals could block fracking wells in their area. Leveling-Up Secretary Simon Clarke confirmed: "Consent will lie at the heart of our energy policy - community consent." And Ms Truss's own Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, said only six months ago that fracking was not the answer to the energy crisis.He wrote in the Mail on Sunday in March: "Those calling for its return misunderstand the situation we find ourselves in." He added: "Even if we lifted the fracking moratorium tomorrow, it would take up to a decade to extract sufficient volumes. "And it would come at a high cost for communities and our precious countryside." Mr Kwarteng went on: "Second, no amount of shale gas from hundreds of wells dotted across rural England would be enough to lower the European price any time soon. "And with the best will in the world, private companies are not going to sell the shale gas they produce to UK consumers below the market price. They are not charities, after all."

Liz Truss’s government denies abandoning climate targets despite plan to legalise fracking - Liz Truss's new government has denied that it is abandoning its net zero target climate commitments despite bringing forward plans to legalise fracking. Levelling-Up Secretary Simon Clarke on Thursday morning confirmed that the government would lift the ban on the controversial gas extraction process – Ms Truss's first announcement as PM. But environmentalists warned that the measure would do little to help with energy security and that they were "the root of so many of the problems we currently face". Britain already produces around half of its gas domestically, with most of the rest coming from Norway – but prices have surged because the commodity is sold on an open international market. In April Kwasi Kwarteng, who is now the chancellor, said that fracking "would certainly have no effect on prices in the near term" but said it could help meet demand in the future. But levelling-up secretary Mr Clarke told Sky News on Thursday morning: "If we want energy sufficiency we have to look at every source including clearly new nuclear, more renewables but we also want to look at technologies like fracking. "We have to do so in the most sensitive possible way with community consent at the absolute heart of our policies. "The net zero commitment that the Government has made by 2050 is critical. But in the near-term we need all kinds of gas as a transition fuel and that is something the Prime Minister will be saying more about." The UK's official Committee on Climate Change in February said that "any increases in UK extraction of oil and gas would have, at most, a marginal effect on the prices faced by UK consumers in future." It said there should be tighter limits on production and a presumption against exploration, which would "send a clear signal to investors and consumers that the UK is committed to the 1.5°C global temperature goal". The news comes amid concerns about the climate policy views of members of Ms Truss's cabinet and some of her new top advisors. Matthew Sinclair, a former head of the right-wing pressure group the Taxpayers' Alliance, claimed in a 2011 book that rising global temperatures could bring benefits and has attacked “the burgeoning climate change industry”. And in 2016 he said the UK had “pushed energy efficiency too far, too fast” and that British homes were too warm. He is now the prime minister's chief economic advisor. Responding to the government's announcement on fracking, Friends of the Earth campaigner Danny Gross said: “Fracking is disruptive, unpopular and will do little to boost energy security or bring down bills. “Fossil fuels are at the root of so many of the problems we currently face. “We need clean, modern solutions to the energy and climate crises. That means insulation, energy efficiency and developing cheap renewables like onshore wind and solar.”

Fracking ban lifted as Truss says shale gas could flow in six months - Liz Truss has vowed to get shale gas flowing out of Britain by next spring after lifting the ban on fracking. Under plans to make Britain energy independent again by 2040, the Prime Minister pledged to strengthen supplies with more domestic oil and gas extraction alongside the development of nuclear and renewable power schemes. She said this would see the moratorium on fracking – in place since 2019 – scrapped with immediate effect, paving the way for developers to begin extraction in as little as six months in areas “where there is local support”. From next week, the Government will also make more than 100 new licences for oil and gas extraction in the North Sea available. The changes, which could take years to bear fruit, will make no difference to supplies this winter. But they are aimed at helping Britain to become a net energy exporter by 2040, combined with plans already announced by Boris Johnson to build 24 gigawatts worth of nuclear power capacity by 2050, new offshore wind farms and solar farms. Ms Truss said the radical shake-up was necessary after “decades of short term thinking”, which had left the country exposed to surging energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The UK has been a net importer of energy since 2004, with the North Sea’s depleted reserves no longer meeting more than 50pc of the country’s consumption. Fracking was originally touted by David Cameron’s administrations as a way to boost domestic production, after the British Geological Survey estimated that some 1,300 trillion cubic feet of gas could lie underneath the UK. If only one tenth of that amount is extracted, it could potentially meet the UK’s gas needs for decades. But fracking – the process used to extract shale gas, pioneered in the US – was banned in England three years ago on safety grounds after Cuadrilla caused earth tremors far stronger than it had anticipated in Lancashire.

‘We will oppose this’: Truss fracking plans met with anger and dismay in Lancashire -It was 8.30am on August bank holiday Monday in 2019 and Chris Holliday, 60, a retired IT consultant, was with his wife, Susan, in their neat kitchen when all of a sudden the cups and saucers began to shake. “The crockery and glasses were rattling. The windows were rattling,” he said on Thursday. “It was frightening,” said Susan. “I personally felt seven or eight of these earth tremors and it’s quite a scary situation to live in – and to think that could start off all over the country.” The Holliday’s retirement home is barely 300 metres from Britain’s fracking frontier at Preston New Road in Lancashire. Cuadrilla was forced to stop drilling at the site in November 2019 when the government announced a temporary moratorium after repeated earth tremors above the 0.5-magnitude limit set by regulators. The site, set among acres of farmland on the Lancashire coast, is the only fracking operation in the UK in which horizontal wells have been drilled and hydraulically fractured into shale rock. Locals said on Thursday they feared it puts them back on the frontline after Liz Truss, just 48 hours into her premiership, lifted the moratorium on fracking, aiming to get gas flowing in six months. “It’s just dismay,” said Chris Holliday. “The drilling itself is very intrusive. The earth tremors put you on edge the whole time. You can’t really relax at all.” It was not just those who live nearby who felt the 2.9-magnitude tremor in August 2019. Nearly 200 properties, including some several miles away, reported damage, according to data collected by the British Geological Survey. Cuadrilla, which offered people “goodwill payments” of hundreds of pounds for the property damage, welcomed Truss’s announcement and promised to work with the government “to ensure this industry can start generating results as soon as possible”. Preston New Road became the focal point for anti-fracking protests from across the UK as campaigners, led by a group of women calling themselves the Nanas, frustrated Cuadrilla’s operations as activists blocked roads, chained themselves to fences, and forced the police to make arrests.

Fracking sites span Tory seats across red wall - Fracking sites which could be part of Liz Truss's energy plan span the Tory seats across the red wall, it has emerged. The moratorium on fracking in place since 2019 will be scrapped on Thursday by the Prime Minister, giving the green light for companies to seek planning permission to drill for shale gas in the UK.Implementing the change can be done simply with a written ministerial statement to Parliament rather than full legislation, meaning the removal of the ban will take effect rapidly.On Wednesday a fracking industry source predicted planning permission requests for new drilling would be submitted within weeks of the ban lifting.And a graphic (below) showing areas identified as having potential shale reserves as well as previously licensed sites show they cover vast swaths of the red wall seats in the north west seized upon by the Conservative Party in the 2019 General Election.At the beginning of this year, it seemed that more than a decade of controversy over fracking for gas in the UK was over, when energy company Cuadrilla announced that the country's only two shale wells were to be abandoned.But Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed energy prices and security to the top of the agenda, prompting calls for the Government to rethink the moratorium it had imposed on fracking in England in 2019 in the wake of tremors in Lancashire.In her campaign to become Prime Minister, Ms Truss said in an interview: "I support exploring fracking in parts of the United Kingdom where that can be done."Any moves to lift the moratorium would be heavily criticised by opponents who have long warned that fracking can cause earthquakes, water contamination, noise and traffic pollution.Environmentalists also warn that pursuing new sources of gas - a fossil fuel - is not compatible with efforts to tackle climate change, and the focus should be on developing cleaner sources of energy such as renewables.

Lifting of fracking ban not miracle solution, minister admits -Plans to increase shale gas supplies by ending the moratorium on fracking are not a “miracle solution”, the communities secretary has conceded, before plans to curb spiralling energy bills this winter are announced.Simon Clarke said the government had to be pragmatic but added that community consent would “lie at the heart of our energy policy”.He defended the decision not to bring in a further windfall tax on oil and gas companies to pay for the long-awaited package, to be announced later on Thursday morning by Liz Truss.The Guardian understands an immediate lifting of the ban on fracking for shale gas will be ordered when the prime minister makes her announcement.In a major shift in tone from the Boris Johnson administration, Clarke also told people to be “disciplined” about their energy use this winter, saying the public can play a part “in helping to keep energy prices low and conserve our energy supplies”.The support package to prevent millions of people from falling into destitution due to the energy price cap rise in October is estimated to cost the taxpayer £130bn, as Truss grapples with the worsening cost of living crisis.Clarke refused to pre-empt her announcement, but said fracking was “something the PM will be talking about in her statement today”.Kwasi Kwarteng, now chancellor, said months ago when he was business secretary in the previous government that fracking would “take years of exploration and development before commercial quantities of gas could be produced for the market, and would certainly have no effect on prices in the near term”.Clarke said it was “absolutely right to say that this on its own won’t transform the economics of energy” but insisted it was not true that ending the fracking moratorium would make no difference to gas prices.He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “There’s a middle ground here, where we can be realistic that taking more gas from all sources is a sensible thing to do if there is community consent. But we’re not going to have miracle solutions to the challenges we face.”Clarke added that “we need gas from all sources as part of our transition towards net zero” and blamed the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for trying to “weaponise” energy to “break the resolve of the west”.Defending the decision not to impose a further windfall tax on offshore oil and gas companies, despite them reporting huge profits, Clarke said they already pay “their fair share of tax” and that imposing a further levy would curb investment and growth. He promised the package to be announced by Truss would provide “comfort and clarity”.

Gibraltar to reopen port after ship fuel spill emergency - Gibraltar authorities said on Wednesday the Rock's port would partially reopen later in the day following the removal of most of the oil from a stricken ship that collided in its bay area last week. The government said in a statement that some operations at the port would resume on Wednesday night, as part of a scaled re-opening. The government says the emergency status of the ship incident has been lifted because most of the fuel from the ship has been extracted. The ship ran aground in shallows after colliding on August 29 with another vessel, triggering fears of a major spillage. An unknown quantity of fuel oil seeped from the ship last on Thursday, causing a slick, and teams have been working to clean the area as well as remove the oil still on the ship. Fishing in the area has been prohibited. Several Gibraltar beaches and one in Spain temporarily prohibited bathing. The Gibraltar government said on Wednesday there were no reports of significant amounts of oil reaching the coast. Operations to remove the remaining fuel and other material from the ship are continuing. Authorities are still studying what to do with the ship structure once those operations are completed. Gibraltar said the 178-metre (584-foot), Tuvalu-registered OS 35 was carrying 250 tons of diesel. After the initial spill it still had 183 tons of fuel oil and 27 tons of lubricant oil in its tanks. The ship was carrying a cargo of steel bars when it collided with a liquefied natural gas carrier. The second ship sustained little damage. No one was injured in the collision.

Russia indefinitely suspends Nord Stream gas pipeline to Europe -Russia has indefinitely suspended natural gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, exacerbating a squeeze on Europe's energy supplies, and deepening the recession risks faced in the EU. State-owned Gazprom said the shutdown was because of an oil leak discovered in the main gas turbine at the Portovaya compressor station near St Petersburg, which feeds the line that runs through the Baltic Sea to Germany. However, Siemens Energy, which manufactures and maintains the turbines that power the pipeline, cast doubt on this explanation.“Such leakages do not usually affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site,” the German company said. “It is a routine procedure during maintenance work. In the past, the occurrence of this type of leakage has not resulted in a shutdown of operations.“Irrespective of this, we have already pointed out several times that there are enough additional turbines available at the Portovaya compressor station for Nord Stream 1 to operate,” Siemens Energy said.

Russia Admits Weaponization Of Gas, Halts NS1 Shipments "Until Sanctions Lifted" As EU Prepares Response To Energy Crisis - Putin is done playing around. Two days after Russia indefinitely halted nat gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for the amusing reason that there was an "oil leak" (shown below)... ... on Monday Russia finally admitted what everyone has known since February - namely that it has weaponized commodities in response to the West's weaponization of currencies (as Zoltan Pozsar has said all along),when the Kremlin said that Russia’s gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not resume in full until the “collective west” lifts sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, blamed EU, UK, and Canadian sanctions for Russia’s failure to deliver gas through the key pipeline, which delivers gas to Germany from St Petersburg via the Baltic sea. “The problems pumping gas came about because of the sanctions western countries introduced against our country and several companies,” Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency. “There are no other reasons that could have caused this pumping problem.” Peskov’s comments were the most stark demand yet by the Kremlin that the EU roll back its sanctions in exchange for Russia resuming gas deliveries to the continent. It also confirms that Russia no longer needs to pretend it needs to export commodities to Europe - after all it has more than enough demand in China and India - and is willing to give Europe just enough to rope to... well, you know the rest. On Friday, Gazprom said it would halt gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 because of a technical fault, which it blamed on difficulties repairing German-made turbines in Canada. We now know that was a strawman; and in the latest confirmation of who has the upper hand in the ongoing commodity feud, the EU had already rolled back some sanctions against Russia explicitly to allow the turbines to be repaired. European leaders have said there is nothing to prevent Gazprom from supplying the continent with gas and had accused Russia of “weaponising” its energy exports. Meanwhile, as we reported over the weekend, Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Soviet-era pipelines through Ukraine that have remained open despite the invasion, as well as the South Stream pipeline via Turkey. And in an ironic twist, the head of the Ukraine gas transit operator told Reuters that Ukraine could "technically" substitute full capacity of Nord Stream 1 via Ukraine's Sudzha entry point. In other words, Europe would pay Putin billions for Russian gas transiting through Ukraine with Russia using proceeds to fight Ukraine... Of course, nothing in today's "news" should come as a surprise: Russian officials have made little secret of their hope that the growing energy crisis in Europe will sap the bloc’s support for Ukraine. “Obviously life is getting worse for people, businessmen, and companies in Europe,” Peskov said. “Of course, ordinary people in these countries will have more and more questions for their leaders.”

Russia ends Nord Stream 1 gas exports to Europe as US prepares “more aggressive” involvement in Ukraine war - In a move that will have devastating consequences for hundreds of millions of Europeans, Russia has indefinitely ended natural gas exports to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Nord Stream 1 is the largest source of Russian natural gas exports to Europe, which up to this year amounted to 40 percent of European natural gas imports. Over the past months, Russia has repeatedly cut off supplies via Nord Stream 1 for days in a row. Prices for natural gas, the leading energy source for home heating, have already risen 10-fold over the past year and surged by more than 33 percent on Monday following the announcement. European households, facing surging energy and food prices, have been driven to the brink, and small businesses are facing bankruptcy throughout the continent. This massive social disaster is the consequence of the US-NATO war with Russia, which was instigated by the NATO powers by their efforts to bring Ukraine into the NATO alliance. The war has already led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers and the shattering of Ukrainian economic life. The primary beneficiaries of the conflict have been US and European defense contractors, which are seeing the largest orders in decades, and US energy companies, which have surged energy exports onto the European market at record prices, leading to bumper profits. Despite the economic disaster looming for Europe, the US and NATO have only escalated their involvement in the war. The White House called on Congress Monday to appropriate a further $11 billion for the war in Ukraine, adding to the more than $50 billion that has been allocated to date. It has become undeniable that the White House is removing nearly all remaining restraints on US involvement in the war, which US President Joe Biden warned earlier this year might risk “World War III.” In an article entitled “Why the US is becoming more brazen with its Ukraine support,”the Hill reports that “the Biden administration is arming Ukraine with weapons that can do serious damage to Russian forces, and, unlike early in the war, U.S. officials don’t appear worried about Moscow’s reaction.”The article quoted William Taylor, the former US ambassador to Ukraine and a leading figure in the first impeachment of Donald Trump, saying, “Over time, the administration has recognized that they can provide larger, more capable, longer-distance, heavier weapons to the Ukrainians and the Russians have not reacted.”He continued, “The Russians have kind of bluffed and blustered, but they haven’t been provoked. And there was concern [over this] in the administration early on—there still is to some degree—but the fear of provoking the Russians has gone down.”

 European NatGas Prices Soar As Moscow Tightens Screw On Supplies Via Nord Stream -News that Russia's energy giant Gazprom PJSC halted Nord Stream 1 pipeline flows to Europe sent natural gas prices soaring. European governments are preparing for a worsening energy crisis and the increasing probability of rationing. Benchmark EU NatGas futures jumped as much as 35%, and electricity prices across the bloc soared. The unexpected cutoff also sent European equities into a downward spiral -- the euro hit a two-decade low. Gazprom decided on late Friday not to restart the Nord Stream pipeline after three days of maintenance due to an oil leak detected at a turbine that helps pump NatGas. Traders are left with many uncertainties, such as no timeline on when Russia restarts the pipeline. Gazprom has released a photo of the alleged “oil leak” that’s going to keep the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline closed for now. pic.twitter.com/91jH8P9qLi Europe's politicians are now rushing to pass additional emergency measures: Sweden and Finland will support struggling utilities with collateral requirements, a move to prevent a "Lehman-style" bust. Energy ministers from across the bloc will hold a meeting at the end of the week to discuss NatGas price caps and a suspension of power derivatives trading. Moscow's move will spark continued energy hyperinflation across Europe that will pressure households deeper into energy poverty -- triggering even more discontent. Tens of thousands of Czechs protested in Prague this past weekend against European sanctions on Russia that have backfired, resulting in a cost-of-living crisis for ordinary people. "Obviously, life is getting worse for people, businessmen, and companies in Europe," said Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin's spokesman. He added, "Of course, ordinary people in these countries will have more and more questions for their leaders." Peskov's comments are the starkest yet by the Kremlin that the EU must roll back sanctions in exchange for Russian NatGas, or it's going to be a very tough winter for the energy-stricken continent. And the deputy chair of Russia's security council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Berlin was "acting as an enemy of Russia" by supporting sanctions against Moscow and arming Ukrainians. "They have declared hybrid war against Russia ... this old man acts surprised that the Germans have some little problems with gas," he said. Even though the EU has been rapidly building up NatGas stockpiles, those reserves could be drained during the heating season in a matter of months. "Given the gas supply tightness, one cannot exclude mandatory gas curtailment for non-essential industries or even' rolling gasouts' this winter depending on the weather," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

Euro slides below $0.99 after Russia halts gas supplies to Europe— The euro fell below 99 cents for the first time in 20 years Monday, after Russia said it would shut off its main gas supply pipeline to Europe indefinitely. The EU's common currency was trading around 0.9915 versus the dollar by 1:00 p.m. London time (8:00 a.m. ET), having climbed off lows of $0.9881 hit earlier in the day. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, also breached a fresh two-decade high as the British pound slid on fears over energy supply and European economic growth. On Friday, Russian energy supplier Gazprom said it would not resume its supply of natural gas to Germany through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline, blaming a malfunctioning turbine. The announcement was made hours after the Group of Seven economic powers agreed on a plan to implement a price cap on Russian oil. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, was nearly 30% higher Monday morning, hitting 282.5 euros per megawatt hour. It comes ahead of a meeting of the European Central Bank Thursday, when economists expect it to raise rates by 50 or 75 basis points against a backdrop of concern over Europe's ability to meet its energy needs this winter and the potential for a hit to growth. "We expect that Russia is respecting the contracts that they have, but even if the weaponization of energy will continue or will increase in response to our decisions, I think that the European Union is ready to react," Paolo Gentiloni, the EU's economics commissioner, told CNBC over the weekend. "Of course, we have to save energy, we have to share energy, we have [a] high level of storage and we are not afraid of Putin's decisions." The British pound was down around 0.2% on the previous session at 1.1488 against the dollar at 1:20 p.m. London time, after it was announced Liz Truss would be the new U.K. prime minister. Truss must now reckon with a growing cost-of-living crisis fueled by soaring energy bills. Sterling fell 4.5% against the dollar in August, its worst month since Brexit, and one analyst forecast that it would "plumb new depths" due to political and economic uncertainty, potentially hitting $1.05 by the middle of next year. "These markets are selling off on any bad news related to the Russia gas flows narrative, whilst reluctant to rally on any marginal improvement in the energy crisis," "The market is under-appreciating the chance for policy intervention from government officials helping to reduce stagflation risks on the continent," he said, meaning the case for a euro rise to 1.05 against the dollar now looked equal to, if not greater, than the case for a fall to 0.95. Yesterday the German government announced a 65 billion euro package to reduce consumer energy bills and support businesses.

Russian Gas Supply Cuts To Europe Could Lead To Blackouts - The European energy sector continues to be shocked by price volatility and uncertainty over energy balances for the coming winter. Power spot prices across Western Europe have climbed to unparalleled levels: daily average prices have traded above $599 per MWh in Germany and $697 per MWh in France, with peak-hour spikes as high as $1,493 per MWh. Now there is a risk of even higher prices during the winter months as Russia has halted all gas exports through Nord Stream 1 for an indefinite period. However, the European Commission is still exploring alternatives to limit the impact of extreme prices on end users. Strong volatility in the gas market is the cause of these fluctuations, as some signals switched from bearish to bullish over the weekend. The market is also unsure how to react to the proposed EU market intervention, where one target seems to be capping gas prices and another decoupling the European gas and power markets. Rystad Energy research shows that if gas demand must be reduced, as seems increasingly likely, Europe will face a series of unenviable options – from cutting industrial power to rolling blackouts for consumers. Recent price rises have been caused by a perfect storm of lower Russian gas supplies; nuclear outages; low hydropower generation, and coal supply disruptions because of drought. Of these factors, lower gas supplies have the greatest effect because gas continues to be needed in the power mix and is the marginal source of supply and therefore hits prices the most. However, the historically high gas prices have so far not curtailed demand from the power sector significantly – which means tougher measures may be needed. EU member states last month committed to voluntarily reducing their gas demand by 15 percent from August 1 through March next year in case of supply shortages. If these 15 percent demand cuts become mandatory within the EU, an imbalance in power supply and demand could appear as soon as this month and worsen into 2023. The power deficit is estimated to reach a maximum of 13.5 TWh in January before gradually being reduced. A straight 15 percent gas-for-power demand cut is not the most likely, however, as other sectors such as industry would likely face a higher reduction to shield the power sector to ensure the security of supply. A worst-case scenario with very cold weather, low wind generation, and a 15 percent cut in gas-for-power demand would prove very challenging for the European power system and could lead to power rationing and blackouts. Overall, gas-power generation has grown 6% year-on-year to reach 39.1 TWh in July. Things will get even more challenging towards the end of the year as seasonal electricity demand increases – electricity consumption in December is normally 25% higher than in July, meaning that European consumption could reach more than 280 TWh per month. “The coming winter is certain to be the most challenging Europe has seen in decades – and consumers or governments are expected to pay the price. If gas demand needs to be cut, we expect to see power supply issues emerging this month and worsening into 2023,” says Carlos Torres Diaz, head of power at Rystad Energy.

Germany might consider gas rationing after Russia halts flows -Uniper CEO -German gas importer Uniper does not rule out Europe’s biggest economy will eventually consider gas rationing after Russia stopped flows via its main pipeline to the continent and confirmed it was weighing legal action against GazpromGAZP.MM. The comments by Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach came as European gas prices surged after Russia said the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would stay shut indefinitely due to a fault, in another blow to the European Union as it struggles to recover from the pandemic. “We cannot rule out that Germany might look at rationing gas as something that might have to be considered,” CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of an international gas conference in Milan. “We know that the government wants to avoid this as much as possible because that would be a disaster for so many reasons,” he added. The move by Gazprom meant that Germany was unlikely to reach a 95% filling target for its gas storage facilities by Nov. 1. Maubach, whose company is Germany’s biggest importer of Russian gas, said that gas demand in northwest Europe had declined by 15-20% against the weather-adjusted normal demand. Europe has accused Russia of weaponising energy supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia says the West has launched an economic war and sanctions have caused the gas supply problems.

Europe Looks Set for Energy Rationing After Russian Gas Cut - Energy rationing in Europe this winter is starting to look all but inevitable. German officials on Saturday insisted that security of supply was guaranteed, at least for now, after Russia’s Gazprom PJSC made a last-minute decision not to turn the crucial Nord Stream pipeline back on after maintenance. Storage is filling up and new sources of gas are being procured. But Klaus Mueller, president of the Federal Network Agency energy regulator warned last month that even with gas storage 95% full, there would only be enough for 2-1/2 months of demand if Russia switched off flows. German storage now stands at about 85%. “The EU is now in the red zone as further demand destruction needs to take place,” said Thierry Bros a professor in international energy at Sciences Po in Paris. He estimates an extra 3% of demand needs to be cut. The European Union has already created a voluntary 15% demand reduction target for gas, with the option of making it obligatory if needed. As energy ministers prepare to meet for an emergency meeting on Sept. 9, steps that seemed unthinkable before are now likely to be considered, according to EU diplomats. Germany has its own emergency plan mapped out. The last stage -- yet to be enacted -- includes rationing. Europe’s politicians have been bracing for the prospect of supply cuts for weeks, and scrambling to find ways to cut demand. Industry is already shutting down and the euro is sliding because of the economic damage inflicted by Moscow’s energy war. As winter progresses, Europe’s resolve to keep backing Ukraine against Russia may be tested. While the 15% gas demand cut that the EU is pushing for could allow the bloc to avoid rationing, governments have so far been slow to act to reduce consumption. The European Commission warned in July that an unusually cold winter or lower gas imports from alternative sources would boost the risk of “further drastic reductions.” Gas prices had been dropping last week as traders increasingly expected Gazprom to reopen the link after signals from Moscow that a reopening was on the cards. Then in a last-minute move, just hours after the Group of Seven agreed to pursue a price cap on Russian oil, Gazprom said the link would stay shut as a fault had been found during maintenance. Already at four times the level of a year ago, prices are set to jump on Monday, piling more pressure on industries and households -- and on policy makers to act. The complete halt of Nord Stream, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, leaves only two major routes supplying gas to the European Union: one via Ukraine and one via TurkStream through the Black Sea. Flows through Ukraine have also been severely curbed, with only one of two legs operating. Losing the key pipeline indefinitely also ramps up pressure on Germany to keep the nuclear power plants it had planned to close this year open for longer -- a decision that would be controversial. The government says it’s still waiting for the results of stress tests before making a decision, but the move looks increasingly likely.

European Stainless Steel Mills Are Closing Due To Energy Crisis - Stainless steel prices continue to struggle as we approach the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile, nickel prices float just above their 2021 average, closing August at $21,320 / mt. Both indices seem to indicate an overly-cautious marketplace, with buyers and sellers seemingly waiting to see what the other will do.This sort of “commodity” standoff is less than ideal. MetalMiner has recommended that buyers of flat-rolled stainless expect lower transaction prices as we move into autumn. After all, alloy surcharges are low, and competition between service centers is higher. In fact, many U.S. flat-rolled mills have no customers on allocation, thanks to imports affecting overall supply.Still, the battle between supply and demand is a never-ending one. And in a tight market full of people looking to maximize their dollar, anything can happen. What would happen if the stainless steel market suddenly lost millions of tons of production? We won’t have to wait long to find out the answer because it’s already happening. As August ended, more and more reports came in detailing European stainless steel producers having to scale back or shut down production altogether.Of course, Europe faces a catastrophic energy crisis. While many economists remain focused on the coming winter, Putin’s retaliatory gas cutoff has done plenty of damage already. So far, around three million tons of Europe’s stainless steel capacity is at risk. With energy costs surging, many plants simply can’t afford to “keep the lights on,” so to speak. Earlier in August, the Belgian Aperam Mill shut down its mill in Genk. Soon after, they reduced production at their Chatelet Mill. More recently, Spanish company Acrinox announced it would cut production and place around 85% of its employees on short-time work. Obviously, all eyes are now on other major European producers, many of whom have just as much incentive to cut and run.

Winter is coming: Russian gas supply cuts cause price volatility and potentially power cuts --The European energy sector continues to be shocked by price volatility and uncertainty over energy balances for the coming winter. Power spot prices across Western Europe have climbed to unparalleled levels: daily average prices have traded above $599 per MWh in Germany and $697 per MWh in France, with peak-hour spikes as high as $1,493 per MWh. Now there is a risk of even higher prices during the winter months as Russia has halted all gas exports through Nord Stream 1 for an indefinite period. However, the European Commission is still exploring alternatives to limit the impact of extreme prices on end users. Strong volatility in the gas market is the cause of these fluctuations, as some signals switched from bearish to bullish over the weekend. The market is also unsure how to react to the proposed EU market intervention, where one target seems to be capping gas prices and another decoupling the European gas and power markets. Rystad Energy research shows that if gas demand must be reduced, as seems increasingly likely, Europe will face a series of unenviable options – from cutting industrial power to rolling blackouts for consumers. Recent price rises have been caused by a perfect storm of lower Russian gas supplies; nuclear outages; low hydropower generation, and coal supply disruptions because of drought. Of these factors, lower gas supplies have the greatest effect because gas continues to be needed in the power mix and is the marginal source of supply and therefore hits prices the most. However, the historically high gas prices have so far not curtailed demand from the power sector significantly – which means tougher measures may be needed. EU member states last month committed to voluntarily reducing their gas demand by 15 percent from August 1 through March next year in case of supply shortages. If these 15 percent demand cuts become mandatory within the EU, an imbalance in power supply and demand could appear as soon as this month and worsen into 2023. The power deficit is estimated to reach a maximum of 13.5 TWh in January before gradually being reduced. A straight 15 percent gas-for-power demand cut is not the most likely, however, as other sectors such as industry would likely face a higher reduction to shield the power sector to ensure the security of supply. A worst-case scenario with very cold weather, low wind generation, and a 15 percent cut in gas-for-power demand would prove very challenging for the European power system and could lead to power rationing and blackouts. European utilities are, despite great efforts, struggling to reduce their dependence on gas. Gas-power generation has climbed because of the challenges mentioned above. Nuclear and hydropower generation in the EU have dropped 14% and 25% year-on-year, respectively, erasing 110 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity supply from the grid. This has been compensated by higher wind, coal, solar, and gas generation. Overall, gas-power generation has grown 6% year-on-year to reach 39.1 TWh in July. Things will get even more challenging towards the end of the year as seasonal electricity demand increases – electricity consumption in December is normally 25% higher than in July, meaning that European consumption could reach more than 280 TWh per month. “The coming winter is certain to be the most challenging Europe has seen in decades – and consumers or governments are expected to pay the price. If gas demand needs to be cut, we expect to see power supply issues emerging this month and worsening into 2023,” says Carlos Torres Diaz, head of power at Rystad Energy. In the first half of last year, Russia exported close to 350 million cmd of natural gas to Western Europe through its main export routes. Flows have dropped below 40 million cmd in recent days, down 89% year-on-year. Most of this decline has been the result of a halt in flows through Nord Stream 1 related to technical problems, though political issues related to the war in Ukraine are also widely believed to play a part. Flows through Poland and Ukraine are also down. Russia’s Gazprom halted all exports through Nord Stream 1 from August 31. Although flows were expected to resume after three-day maintenance in the remaining compressor, Russia has now stated that flows will not resume in full until sanctions are lifted. This latest move has significantly increased the risk that Europe may not get further gas flows through Nord Stream 1 for the whole winter. In a scenario where the EU’s efforts to reduce gas use results in total EU gas-for-power demand being cut by 15 percent compared to the five-year average, the lost supply – corresponding to about 5.5 TWh per month – would have to be replaced by other sources, demand reductions, or increased power imports into the bloc.

Swiss Citizens Who Overheat Their Homes This Winter Could Face Hefty Fines & 3 Years In Jail - After the Swiss and Finns joined the Germans, Austrians, and Swedes in bailing out there energy providers, who are facing trillions in margin calls; new legislation covering Switzerland’s energy supply will make heating homes to more than 19°C unlawful in the event of an energy shortage. In addition, hot water should not be heated to more than 60 degrees, and portable electric heaters, saunas, and heated swimming pools are prohibited. Remix News' Thomas Brooke reports that Swiss citizens found to be in violation of the country’s new heating rules, which prohibit warming homes above 19°C this winter, could face daily fines of up to 3,000 Swiss francs and up to three years in prison. To note, the World Health Organization has long held that a temperature no colder than 20°C is recommended for children, the elderly, and those with existing health conditions. Markus Spörndli, a spokesperson of the Swiss Department of Economics (DEF) explained that “infringements of the law on the supply of the country are always misdemeanors, even […] crimes, and must be prosecuted ex officio by the cantons.” The fine to be imposed on consumers found to be violating the new energy laws will range from 30 francs up to a maximum of 3,000 francs per day, Spörndli said, confirming the amount would be dependent on the nature of the offense and the economic situation of the perpetrator.

Putin threatens to let Europe 'freeze' over winter, raising risk of energy rationingEurope was already facing a difficult and unpredictable winter when it came to its energy supplies as it looks to phase out all Russian imports. But Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday again threatened to completely stop all supplies, a move which he hinted would leave Europe to "freeze." Russia has already halted gas supplies to the region citing technical issues on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, leaving the region vulnerable as it tries to replenish energy storage ahead of the colder months. Responding to EU proposals to implement price caps on Russian energy imports, Putin told business leaders in Vladivostok that Russia could yet decide to rip up existing supply contracts. "Will there be any political decisions that contradict the contracts? Yes, we just won't fulfill them. We will not supply anything at all if it contradicts our interests," Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia's far east. "We will not supply gas, oil, coal, heating oil — we will not supply anything," Putin said. "We would only have one thing left to do: as in the famous Russian fairy tale, we would let the wolf's tail freeze," he said. Russian newspaper Pravda describes the tale as involving a cunning fox who made a stupid wolf catch fish in the frozen river by putting his tail into an ice hole. "The fox would hop around the desperate and hungry wolf saying "freeze, freeze, the wolf's tail" until the ice hole froze trapping the wolf in the ice. Men from the village then came and beat the wolf for all the bad things that he had done to them in summer. The wolf struggled and escaped, but his tail was left in the frozen ice hole," Pravda said. Energy rationing Putin's threat to halt all supplies raises the risk of energy rationing in Europe this winter. The EU has already called upon its members to voluntarily reduce their gas consumption by 15% in the fall and winter but that might not be enough to allay the need for restrictions on gas use. A number of European governments have announced measures to protect citizens from rocketing energy bills. In the meantime, Western nations are trying to put pressure on Russia's energy revenues, which they say are funding the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, by proposing price caps on Russian oil and gas. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday described the situation facing Europe as "extraordinary ... because Russia is an unreliable supplier and is manipulating our energy markets." She said the Commission would put forward immediate measures to help consumers, including a mandatory target for reducing electricity use at peak hours, a cap on revenues of companies producing electricity with low costs, and other plans to share the burden of energy price rises. "Low carbon energy sources are making unexpected revenues, which do not reflect their production costs. It is now time for consumers to benefit from the low costs of low carbon energy sources, like renewables," von der Leyen said in a statement, saying fossil fuel companies should also contribute to easing pressures on consumers. "Oil and gas companies have also made massive profits. We will therefore propose a solidarity contribution for fossil fuel companies. Because all energy sources must help address this crisis." Von der Leyen said energy utility companies must be supported to cope with the volatility of the markets and proposed a cap on Russian gas. "The objective here is very clear. We must cut Russia's revenues which Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine."

Russia has warned against capping energy prices. But Europe is thrashing out the details regardless - European Union energy ministers on Friday gathered in Brussels for emergency talks on how to protect households and businesses from runaway gas and electricity prices ahead of winter. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sought to lay the groundwork for Friday's meeting with a five-point plan. This includes a price cap on Russian gas, a windfall tax on fossil fuel profits, a mandatory target for reducing electricity use and emergency credit lines for power companies. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to the proposals by threatening to rip up existing supply contracts if a cap on Russian energy exports is imposed, warning that he was prepared to let Europe "freeze" during the colder months. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Friday reportedly warned that the West failed to understand how energy price caps could impact their own countries. "The collective West does not understand: the introduction of a cap on prices for Russian energy resources will lead to a slippery floor under its own feet," Zakharova said, according to Reuters. It is not expected that EU member states will reach a decision on Friday regarding the proposed policy ideas. The 27-nation bloc has endured a sharp drop in gas exports from Russia, traditionally its largest energy supplier, amid the standoff over the Kremlin's onslaught in Ukraine. Imported Russian gas to Europe currently stands at 9%, representing a substantial fall from roughly 40% before the war. The bitter energy dispute between Brussels and Moscow has recently seen Russia completely halt gas flows via a major supply route to Europe, exacerbating the risk of recession and a winter shortage. Speaking in Brussels ahead of the talks, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson told reporters that Friday's meeting was necessary to provide governments with the right tools to address the deepening energy crisis. "This is not only about prices," Simson said. "It is also a challenge on the aspect of the security of supply."

Europe’s Economic Controlled Flight Into Terrain by Yves Smith - It is extremely hard to understand the mass psychosis at work among European leadership. A huge energy crisis, driven by the great reduction in Russia gas supplies (to become 100% if the EU proceeds with its idea of a gas price cap) and set to be compounded by the G7 bright idea, which they are refusing to drop, of a cap on the price of Russian oil. To the extent that idea works, it will work in reverse. For instance:The planned enforcement mechanism is for UK and EU insurers to be barred from insuring Russia oil. Recall that the UK currently dominates maritime insurance. That won’t last with respect to oil. Aside from the fact that the incumbents do not want to be enforcers/inspectors, Russia, China, and other countries are perfectly able to step up. Bye bye London market share.As we and other have mentioned, and now the mainstream media is confirming, Russian oil was already being laundered either by going through various ports and ship before getting to the EU, and also by going to places like India to be refined and then sold on. Everybody gets fat and happy at Europe’s and to a lesser degree, the US’s expenseOPEC will not let the G7 break its cartel. OPEC just announced a modest reduction of output in light of softening prices. Mr. Market took it worse than it should have given that OPEC signaled it would likely tighten and the output cut was modest. But OPEC is quite capable of turning the pain dial up if it needs to to make a pointAs much as I am not a fan of trying to put officials on the couch, one way to think about the problem facing Europe is the speed of propagation of the energy crisis versus not one but three constraints: the reaction time of businessmen, the time it would take to make short term adaptions, and the time for any more meaningful remedies. Again, as we stressed in the global financial crisis, the timelines are badly mismatched.European leaders are refusing and/or unable to recognize the severity and speed of decay There is simply no fix that will meaningfully alleviate the loss of access to so much cheap energy so quickly. It doesn’t matter what combination of subsidies and prohibitions the EU tries to implement. The economy can’t absorb electricity and gas prices at their expected levels. Yes, the shock is made worse by an EU spot pricing regime, which likely facilitates some Enron-esque gaming.But charitably assume this picture is distorted a full 3x by bad market structure. You still have a 10X increase. By contrast, the US oil shock was only a 4x increase:Let us again be clear. First, this is a massive inflationary shock in economies already suffering high rates of inflation. It doesn’t matter what experts do. The actions they can take will only somewhat effect whose ox gets gored most badly.Second, the currencies will get weaker….which will also only make the energy and import terms of trade worse.Third, ultimately the end for higher energy prices is that they do kill demand. But to kill demand enough to lower energy use to available supply will kill most of these economies stone cold dead. Again, the only way to prevent devastation is to make up with Russia, which the pols, press and pundits have made impossible soon enough to prevent terrible outcomes. If we are to stoop to psychological models, the most apt might be Elizabeth Kubler-Ross’ five stages of grief. Western officials are in either the denial or anger phase, which is a long way from acceptance of loss, which here is loss of US/European dominance as well as their personal reputations.

German gas giant Uniper says the worst is still to come after Russia halts flows to Europe - German energy giant Uniper on Tuesday warned the worst is still to come as concerns over Russian gas supplies to Europe through fall and winter continue to push up prices. "I have said this a number of times now over this year and I'm educating also policymakers. Look, the worst is still to come," Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at Gastech 2022 in Milan. "What we see on the wholesale market is 20 times the price that we have seen two years ago — 20 times. That is why I think we need to have really an open discussion with everyone taking responsibility on how to fix that," he added. Russia's state-owned energy giant, Gazprom, on Friday indefinitely halted gas flows to Europe via a major pipeline, stoking fears that parts of Europe could be forced to ration energy through winter. Uniper, as Germany's biggest importer of gas, has been hit hard by vastly reduced flows via pipelines from Russia, which have sent prices soaring. The German government agreed in July to bail out Uniper with a 15 billion euro ($14.9 billion) rescue deal to provide the embattled company with some financial relief. Maubach said Tuesday that some of the details still needed to be ironed out with this stabilization package. Russia's halt to supplies via Nord Stream 1 and the subsequent spike in European gas prices are likely to exacerbate the situation for the company. Shares of Uniper were 3.5% lower on Tuesday morning. The Frankfurt-listed stock is down more than 88% year to date. Gazprom's announcement came shortly after the Group of Seven economic powers backed a plan to propose a cap on the price of Russian oil. Gazprom said the shutdown was due to an oil leak in a turbine. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which connects Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sec, had been scheduled to reopen on Saturday after three days of maintenance work. The Kremlin has since blamed European lawmakers for the halt to gas supplies via Nord Stream 1, saying economic sanctions imposed by the West following Russia's invasion of Ukraine had impeded repair work. It was widely interpreted as the clearest indication yet that Russia is likely to push for Europe to lift punitive economic sanctions in order for Moscow to turn the taps back on. EU policymakers have accused the Kremlin of weaponizing energy supplies in a bid to sow uncertainty across the 27-nation bloc and boost energy prices amid Russia's onslaught in Ukraine. Moscow denies using energy as a weapon. Asked whether it was possible that Uniper could work again with Gazprom should the Kremlin's war with Ukraine come to an end, Maubach said the company's relationship with Russia stretched back to the 1970s and he had personally defended Gazprom as a reliable energy supplier after the war started with Ukraine in late February. "That, in hindsight, maybe it was even a mistake to think that gas would not be used. Maybe it was just wishful thinking," Maubach said. "I think this partnership is broken and I don't think that we can reestablish that in the next weeks, months and years to come. So, we are focusing on replacing Russian gas," he added.

“Lehman Event” Looms For Europe As Energy Companies Face $1.5 Trillion in Margin Calls - European energy companies are facing margin calls of a total of $1.5 trillion in the derivatives market and many would need policy support to cover them amid wild swings and skyrocketing gas and power prices, an executive at Norway’s energy major Equinor told Bloomberg on Tuesday. According to Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, the $1.5-trillion estimate is even “conservative”.Liquidity at energy firms is drying up as many companies have started to struggle to meet their margin calls on the energy derivatives market.“If the companies need to put up that much money, that means liquidity in the market dries up and this is not good for this part of the gas markets,” Equinor’s Haugane told Bloomberg.Some countries in the EU have already decided to set up funds to avoid a collapse of their energy derivatives markets. Finland and Sweden put out plans this weekend to support their energy companies trading in the electricity derivatives markets, looking to avoid a “Lehman Brothers” event in their respective energy industries and financial systems.“This has had the ingredients for a kind of a Lehman Brothers of energy industry,” Finland’s Minister of Economic Affairs, Mika Lintila, said on Sunday, as carried by Reuters, commenting on the energy crisis in Europe.The crisis deepened after Russia said on Friday that the Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany would remain closed indefinitely, and blamed on Monday the Western sanctions for this situation.Finland discussed stabilization measures required in the electricity derivatives market, and a proposed central government scheme “is a last-resort financing option for companies that would otherwise be at risk of insolvency,” the Finnish government said in a statement on Sunday.Finland will look to set up a loan and guarantee scheme of up to $9.92 billion (10 billion euro), under which the State may grant loans or guarantees to companies engaged in electricity production in Finland.In neighboring Sweden, the government proposed state credit guarantees to mainly electricity producers trading in the market for electricity derivatives. The total amount of required collateral in the market has since June increased from about $6.5 billion (70 billion Swedish crowns) up to about $16.6 billion (180 billion crowns), the government said.“The purpose of the measure is to prevent that the lack of liquidity could create risks for contagion to other parts of the financial system,” Sweden’s Finance Ministry said.

Europe’s Central Bank Rules Out Liquidity Support For Energy Firms - The European Central Bank will not give short-term financing to European energy firms struggling through the energy crisis, sky-high prices, and margin calls on the derivatives markets, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday. “As far as the ECB is concerned, and the national central banks of the Eurosystem, of course we stand ready to provide liquidity to banks, not to energy utility firms,” Lagarde said at a news conference in Prague today, as carried by Bloomberg.“In this current, very volatile environment, it’s important that fiscal measures be put in place to provide liquidity to solvent energy-market participants, in particular utility firms,” the ECB chief added. Europe’s energy firms, for their part, are estimated to be facing margin calls of a total of $1.5 trillion in the derivatives market. Many of these firms will need policy support to cover those calls amid wild swings and skyrocketing gas and power prices. The $1.5-trillion estimate is even “conservative”, Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, told Bloomberg earlier this week. Liquidity at energy firms is drying up as many companies have struggled to meet their margin calls on the energy derivatives market. Some countries in the EU have already decided to set up funds to avoid a collapse of their energy derivatives markets. For example, Finland and Sweden have laid out plans to support their energy companies trading in the electricity derivatives markets, looking to avoid a “Lehman Brothers” event in their respective energy industries and financial systems. “This has had the ingredients for a kind of a Lehman Brothers of energy industry,” Finland’s Minister of Economic Affairs, Mika Lintila, said on Sunday, as carried by Reuters, commenting on the energy crisis in Europe. The EU energy ministers are meeting today to discuss measures to help alleviate the crisis for households and businesses. The European Commission plans to propose a mandatory EU target soon to cut power consumption at peak hours. They are also planning a revenue cap on electricity producers and fossil fuel companies.

‘Goldman Sees $2T Surge in Europe Energy Bills by 2023 - Energy bills for European households will surge by 2 trillion euros ($2 trillion) at their peak early next year, underscoring the need for government intervention, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. utilities analysts. At their height, energy bills will represent about 15% of Europe’s gross domestic product, the analysts, led by Alberto Gandolfi and Mafalda Pombeiro, wrote in a note dated Sunday. “In our view, the market continues to underestimate the depth, the breadth and the structural repercussions of the crisis,” they wrote. “We believe these will be even deeper than the 1970s oil crisis.” Stock investors are too pessimistic about the effect of regulatory efforts, Goldman said. Some of the steps being considered -- including price caps and a so-called tariff deficit -- could ease the overhang on stock prices by smoothing the increase in tariffs, limiting the near-term drop in industrial production, and largely defusing regulatory risk, the analysts wrote. The increase in energy bills has prompted a rush by governments to ease cost pressures on households and businesses. EU energy ministers will meet Friday to discuss measures including natural gas price caps and suspension of power derivatives trading. France and Germany support windfall taxes on energy profits. The introduction of price caps in power generation could save the bloc around 650 billion euros in power bills and offer consumers and markets some relief while allowing governments to forgo a windfall-profits tax, the Goldman analysts said. Price caps wouldn’t fully solve the affordability problem, meaning a tariff deficit might be needed to spread the spike in bills over 10-20 years, Gandolfi and Pombeiro said. Utilities would need to be able to securitize those future payments, allowing them to avoid an excess burden on their balance sheet.

Gazprom Starts Producing LNG at Plant Near Nord Stream Pipeline - Gazprom PJSC has produced its first liquefied natural gas at a small-scale facility on the Baltic Coast near the start of the shuttered Nord Stream pipeline to Germany. Two production lines at Portovaya LNG have produced some 30,000 tons of the super-chilled fuel, Gazprom Deputy Chief Executive Officer Vitaly Markelov said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. One tanker is already moored near the facility while another is expected to arrive soon, Markelov said, providing no comments on the destination. The LNG plant is located near the Portovaya compressor station, the starting point of the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea that failed to return from maintenance on Saturday, exacerbating Europe’s energy crisis. Earlier this year, the facility was in the spotlight after NASA satellites detected flaring on Russia’s Baltic coast, raising concerns that the nation’s gas giant was burning fuel rather than supplying it to Europe amid sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Flaring is a normal part of the commissioning of LNG facilities. The facility completed 72 hours of testing on Monday, though “some paperwork is left to be done,” Markelov said. Portovaya LNG has an annual capacity of 1.5 million tons, or less than a sixth of the nameplate capacity of the Gazprom-led Sakhalin-2 site in Russia’s Far East. Portovaya is set to supply the super-chilled fuel to Russia’s Kaliningrad region, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, and increase Gazprom’s portfolio.

Russia’s Gas Giant Will See Revenues Surge 85% This Year - Russia’s gas giant Gazprom is set to rake in 85% higher revenues this year, to around $100 billion, as natural gas prices surged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the significant cut to Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe, an analyst told the Financial Times on Friday.By choking supply to Europe, Gazprom has driven natural gas prices three times higher than last year’s price, which more than offsets the lower volumes Russia is sending to Europe, Ron Smith, an oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets, told FT.“You can make a solid case that Gazprom will earn more from supplying less gas,” according to the analyst.After having gradually cut flows via the key route to Germany all summer, blaming gas turbine repair issues, Gazprom said last week that the Nord Stream gas pipeline would remain closed indefinitely. The Kremlin blamed on Monday the Western sanctions for this situation. “When it went offline on 31 August, Nord Stream 1’s 32mcm/day flows represented about 3% of total European supply. While a small amount, these molecules will need to be replaced by much more expensive methods – either drawing additional LNG from the global market or by destroying demand in Europe,” Thomas Rodgers, gas markets analyst at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), said on the day on which Gazprom said Nord Stream would halt supply indefinitely.As of September 2, remaining Russian flows to Europe accounted for about 7% of European supply, including LNG sendout, compared to more than a third of all supply to Europe coming from Russia at this time last year, ICIS notes. The EU is looking to limit Putin’s revenues from gas, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday the Commission would propose a price cap on Russian gas as “We must cut Russia's revenues which Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.”Also on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin threatened the West that Russia would stop supplying all energy products to Europe if the EU and its Western allies impose price caps on Russian oil and natural gas.Several EU member states are opposed to the Commission’s plan on a price cap on Russian gas amid concerns that Putin would retaliate with a complete halt of all pipeline gas deliveries to Europe.

EU Energy Ministers Divided On Russian Natural Gas Price Cap --EU county energy ministers met on Friday in an emergency setting to discuss capping the price of Russian gas but ended the meeting without an agreement, according to a draft meeting summary seen by media. The issue of capping the price of Russian gas was discussed, and it was agreed that proposals for capping should be delivered by mid-September, stating that “further work is needed” on the possibility of such a gas cap measure. While EU energy ministers appear divided on the subject of capping Russian gas prices, the group reportedly remains committed to working towards a solution to their citizens’ exorbitant energy bills, adding that there was broad support for saving utility companies from the difficult economic conditions. Other measures the group discussed include decoupling the price of gas from other less expensive energy sources. The group will now work on drafting proposals for how a Russian gas price cap would work, although some in the group expressed there was an urgency required for such an agreement and the subsequent required action. For example, the Czech Industry Minister Jozef Silkela said, “We are in an energy war with Russia. We have to send a clear signal that we would do whatever it takes to support our households, our economies.” The countries that support a price cap include the Baltic states—which are not as reliant on Russian gas as some of the other states that are more reluctant to employ any measure that could incite the wrath of Russia, which has already promised to cut off the gas flows completely should a price cap be employed. A draft proposal seen by Reuters indicated that it would cap revenues from non-gas producers (coal, wind, nuclear) at 200 euros per MWh. Power prices are set by natural gas power plants—the excess revenues above the cap from the non-gas power plants would be used to subsidize energy bills for consumers.

"We've Lost Nothing" - Putin Warns Western Elites' "Sanctions Fever" Will See European People "Freeze" - Russian President Vladimir Putin blasted the ongoing "sanctions fever" in the West in a wide-ranging speech before the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, in the country's far east, where as we described earlier the Chinese delegation was the largest in attendance. Top Chinese legislator Li Zhanshu was in attendance when the Russian leader stressed, "no matter how much someone would like to isolate Russia, it is impossible to do this."Instead, he said the blowback from EU and US-led sanctions and attempts at decoupling from Russian fossil fuels is wrecking lives in the West. "Now we are seeing how production and jobs in Europe are closing one after another," Putin said, stressing that this is happening as "Western elites, who would not, or even cannot acknowledge objective facts."His theme, like in a number of prior major speeches, was Western elites' inability to recognize the inevitable shift from a unipolar to multipolar world (literally the name for this year's forum is "On the Path to a Multipolar World."), or away from "the world order that benefits only them, forcing everyone to live under the rules, which they invented and which they regularly break and constantly change depending on the situation," he said according to a state media translation. That they "would not, or even cannot acknowledge objective facts" about global changes reveals their "growing detachment" from the common people they claim to represent. And yet now, European populations could "freeze" while being denied crucial Russian energy by leaders who shortsightedly want to lash out in emotional response to the Ukraine invasion: "The [coronavirus] epidemic has been replaced by other global challenges that threaten the entire world," Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia’s Pacific port city of Vladivostok. "I’m referring to the West’s sanctions fever," he said, criticizing "blatant and aggressive" attempts to "subjugate" countries that have not imposed economic restrictions on Russia. He dismissed as "nonsense" the widespread allegations that Russia using using gas as an energy weapon, saying it's as simple as releasing the necessary parts for the safe and proper functioning of pipelines operated by Gazprom. "Give us turbines and we’ll turn on Nord Stream tomorrow, but they won’t give us anything," Putin told the audience, further addressing the latest global headlines of an EU-mulled price cap on Russian oil and gas, calling the proposal "another stupidity." He suggested the dilemma remains simple: "There are contractual obligations and if there are any political decisions that contradict them, then we simply won’t fulfill them. We won’t supply anything at all if it contradicts our economic interests, in this case. We won’t supply gas, oil, coal or heating oil."

Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage” Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government. The document, the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation due to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, paints a far more dire picture than officials usually do in their upbeat public pronouncements. Bloomberg viewed a copy of the report, drafted for a closed-door meeting of top officials on August 30. People familiar with the deliberations confirmed its authenticity. Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level. All the scenarios see the pressure of sanctions intensifying, with more countries likely to join them. Europe’s sharp turn away from Russian oil and gas may also hit the Kremlin’s ability to supply its own market, the report said. Beyond the restrictions themselves, which cover about a quarter of imports and exports, the report details how Russia now faces a “blockade” that “has affected practically all forms of transport,” further cutting off the country’s economy. Technological and financial curbs add to the pressure. The report estimates as many as 200,000 IT specialists may leave the country by 2025, the first official forecast of the widening brain drain. Publicly, officials say the hit from sanctions has been less than feared, with the contraction possibly less than 3% this year and even less in 2023. Outside economists have also adjusted the outlooks for this year, backing off initial forecasts of a deep recession as the economy has held up better than expected. The document calls for a raft of measures to support the economy and further ease the impact of the restrictions in order to get the economy recovering to pre-war levels in 2024 and growing steadily after that. But the steps include many of the same measures to stimulate investment that the government has touted over the last decade, when growth largely stagnated even without sanctions. . “With diminished access to Western technologies, a wave of foreign corporate divestment and demographic headwinds ahead, the country’s potential growth is set to shrink to 0.5%-1.0% in the next decade. Thereafter, it will shrink further still, down to just above zero by 2050. Russia will also be increasingly vulnerable to a decline in global commodity prices, as international reserves no longer provide a buffer”,

Erdogan "Understands" Putin's Decision To Cut Off Gas To Germany, Blames West's "Provocations"By now it should be no surprise to anyone that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tends to antagonize both sides of the Russia-West divide, all the while positioning himself as a "go between" so that Turkey gets just what it wants. This was very much on display throughout past years of the war in Syria, also evident with its controversial Russian S-400 acquirement. In but the latest salvo and breaking ranks from the NATO line on the matter, Erdogan on Wednesday charged the West with provoking Russia over Ukraine. He at the same time touted that his country has maintained a "balance" in policy approach and perspective concerning the war, and US-EU punitive sanctions. In addressing a news conference during a meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade, Erdogan went so far as to say that he understands Vladimir Putin's decision to cut off Europe from Russian gas, shuttering the Nord Stream pipeline. As AFP reports of the contrarian statements from the head of NATO's second largest military: He told reporters on a visit to Belgrade that he understood Putin's decision to cut off natural gas supplies to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline. "I can say very clearly that I do not find the attitude of the West -- no need to mention names -- to be correct, because it is a policy based on provocations," Erdogan said. "As long as you try to wage such a war of provocations, you will not be able to get the needed result," he added while standing alongside Vucic. He summarized Turkey's stance throughout the crisis as follows: "As Turkey, we have always maintained a policy of balance between Ukraine and Russia. From now on, we will continue to follow that balanced policy," he was quoted as saying. As an example he touted the recent UN-brokered Black Sea export 'safety corridor', monitored from Istanbul, through which Ukrainian food exports have begun to flow. According to a Turkish media description of his Wednesday statements from Belgrade: Erdoğan added that it does not seem the Russia-Ukraine war will end "anytime soon," adding: "I say to those who underestimate Russia, you are doing it wrong. Russia is not a country that can be underestimated." The president also reiterated Ankara's balanced policy between Russia and Ukraine to help solve the crisis. The Turkish policy of keeping lines of diplomacy open with Russia has also resulted in Türkiye hosting the highest-level meetings of officials from Moscow and Kyiv since the war begin.

 Europe Could Solve Gas Supply Problem With Return To Shale -Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy strategy and policy. And as Europe searches for viable alternatives to Russian gas, LNG seems the most popular solution to plug the supply gap. But a more local, long-term supply option could be shale. A decade ago, Europe hosted some of the most active unconventional gas exploration programs outside North America. Then the commodity downturn in 2015 – combined with some high-profile dry holes – brought a swift end to almost all of Europe’s onshore exploration. Wood Mackenzie believes that unconventional gas could eventually become a meaningful part of the solution to Europe’s gas supply problem – and the numerous barriers. Europe’s gas balance has changed fundamentally because of the conflict. In January-August 2022, Europe’s imports from Russia totaled only 55 percent of the volumes in the same timeframe last year. The continent no longer has any illusions about the reliability of Russia as a gas supplier. In a hypothetical scenario where the EU stops importing Russian gas by the end of 2023, the next couple of years would see record-high import requirements. In the longer term, there is significant uncertainty around the demand – with a range of up to 100 bcm in terms of potential requirements. If demand remains resilient, Woodmac forecasted that the supply and demand gap would be about 300 bcm. In a scenario where Europe’s recent decarbonization and diversification plan, the REPowerEU, is successful, that gap would be closer to 210 bcm. In either scenario, Europe will turn to LNG to plug the gap. In the next couple of years, it will need to compete with Asia for limited supply – all while LNG prices are rising. Woodmac claimed that European shale has vast potential, but there has been no material production. Ten years ago, exploration and appraisal work across Europe spanned from Poland to the UK, Sweden, Germany, and Austria. Target plays were shale and tight gas sands, which both had huge resource potential. Parallels to the booming US unconventional gas supply were drawn, aided by some European shale plays showcasing excellent geologic and geochemical properties. However, none of the in-place gas volumes were commercialized, and in five years of evaluation, not much drilling and completion, progress was made. Even in the UK and Poland, where activity was the most promising, only a few wells were finished, and sky-high costs coupled with management fatigue in the 2015 downturn stalled the projects. The UK and Germany are both reportedly discussing lifting national bans on hydraulic fracturing. That would be a bold move that would set the stage for shale gas pilots again, according to Wood Mackenzie. To remind, in the first round of European shale gas exploration, many of the majors led this activity. Now, majors have shifted their unconventional focus to the Permian, or in some cases, scaled back global shale projects completely. Their shale portfolios appear to be largely set as they are unlikely to want more exposure to new unconventional assets.

Gazprom and Hungary agree on additional gas deliveries for winter - Hungary and Russia’s gas giant Gazprom have signed an agreement that will guarantee the delivery of up to 5.8 mcm gas per day to Hungary in September and October above the volume stipulated in the country's long-term contract signed in October, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said. Gazprom delivered an extra 2.6 mcm of gas per day in August on top of its 15-year contract with the Russian gas giant, which guarantees the annual supply of 4.5 bcm of gas through Serbia and Austria, bypassing Ukraine. Hungary has been in talk with Moscow in the summer to obtain an additional 700 mcm of gas above the 4.5 bcm level. Hungary has opposed proposals for EU sanctions on Russian gas as well as calls for a voluntary 15% cuts in member states’ gas demand until the end of March next year. The government has blamed EU sanctions for the soaring energy prices in Europe.It has gone against the rest of the bloc by continuing to deepen its reliance on Russia. Viktor Orban's regime has boasted about how its good relations with Russia has given it favourable prices for gas and will enable it to ride out the current energy crisis. However, it has not revealed the cost of its gas deals with Russia, with an opposition website claiming that the price is above the market rate.The Hungarian government has also been forced to end its freeze of domestic tariffs, one of its signature economic policies. Three months after his landslide April election victory, the Orban government was forced to give up on its key policy as the budget gap widened and the forint weakened to historic lows.Due to Hungary’s geography, being a landlocked country, "it is physically impossible to ensure Hungary's energy supply without using and taking into account Russian gas sources", Szijjarto said.The additional volumes contribute to the safety of Hungary's energy supply, Szijjarto said, adding that there will be sufficient gas in Hungary. Reserves in Hungary's gas storage facilities have exceeded 36.5% of annual average consumption, compared to the EU average of 21.5%. Gas reserves stood at 61.3% of the total capacity of 6.33 bcm last week. Russia's Gazprom accounts for around 90% of Hungary's gas imports under a 15-year contract signed in October last year that guarantees at least 4.5 bcm of annual supply.

 Lebanese protesters sail towards Israeli waters to highlight gas field dispute - Lebanese boats protesting against Israeli plans to drill for gas in a disputed area of sea were met by patrol vessels from Israel as they neared its waters on Sunday. Patrol boats from Lebanon were also seen in the area, AP reported. The protest comes before a new round of talks between Lebanese and Israeli delegations, mediated by the UN and, recently, the US. In June, the Israeli navy escorted a drilling rig operated by British company Energean to the Karish gas field, which is claimed by both countries and lies in an area of 860 square kilometres of disputed sea. Lebanon says its maritime border stretches further south than Israel’s claimed area of territorial waters. Israel says its maritime border lies further north of what Lebanon accepts. The US has released several optimistic statements hoping that the two countries can strike a compromise on the disputed energy resources. “We welcome the consultative and open spirit of the parties to reach a final decision with the potential to yield greater stability, security and prosperity for Lebanon as well as Israel,” US State Department spokesman Ned Price said in August. But Lebanese politicians have said the Israeli actions represent a violation of the country’s sovereignty. Militant group Hezbollah has gone further, launching unarmed drones towards the drilling rig in July, a move condemned by prime minister-designate Najib Mikati, who called Hezbollah’s actions “unacceptable” and said the group had exposed the country to “unnecessary risks”. Lebanon hopes to exploit offshore gas reserves as it grapples with the worst economic crisis in its modern history. Sunday's flotilla carried Lebanese flags and banners, with slogans in Arabic, French, and Hebrew expressing what they say is Lebanon’s right to its maritime oil and gas fields. “We are demanding our right to every inch of our waters,” Aya Saleh, one of the protesters on a fishing boat, told AP. “And we are sending a message from the Lebanese people.” Lebanese and Israel navy vessels were present, although there were no tensions. Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser for energy security at the US State Department, has shuttled between Beirut and Jerusalem to mediate the talks. He was last in Beirut in late July, when he informed Lebanese officials of Israel's response to a proposal Lebanon made in June, and signalled optimism after his trip. According to Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s office, Mr Hochstein notified adviser and deputy parliament speaker Elias Bou Saab that he will visit Beirut later this week.

India says it will look carefully at Russian oil price cap, rejects moral duty to boycott Moscow - Indian Petroleum Minister Shri Hardeep Singh Puri on Monday said the country will carefully assess whether to support a G-7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil. "There are many conversations going on due to a large number of factors," Puri told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at Gastech 2022 in Milan, Italy. Asked whether India would sign up to the G-7 proposal to put a price cap on Russian oil, Puri said the world economy was still adjusting to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "Now, what will the proposal mean? We will look at it very carefully," he said. Puri added that it was still unclear which countries would take part in the proposed price cap on Russian oil and what the possible implications could mean for energy markets. Finance ministers representing the G-7 countries on Friday agreed on a plan to implement a price-capping mechanism for Russian oil exports. The initiative is designed to curtail the Kremlin's ability to fund its onslaught in Ukraine and better protect consumers amid soaring energy prices. Energy analysts have been highly skeptical about the integrity of the proposal, however, warning that the policy could backfire if key consumers such as China and India are not involved. 'I have a moral duty to my consumer' China and India have increased their purchases of Russian oil following the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, benefiting from discounted rates. Puri said India consumes around 5 million barrels of oil per day and this largely comes from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Russia accounted for just 0.2% of India's oil imports at the end of March, Puri said, noting that some criticized India for increasing its supply of Russian oil following the Kremlin's invasion. "I said the Europeans buy more in one afternoon than I do in a quarter. I'd be surprised if that is not the condition still. But yes we will buy from Russia, we will buy from wherever," Puri said. Asked whether he had a moral conflict with buying Russian oil amid the Kremlin's onslaught in Ukraine, Puri replied, "No, there's no conflict. I have a moral duty to my consumer. Do I as a democratically elected government want a situation where the petrol pump runs dry? Look at what is happening in countries around India."

India Dashes US "Hopes" On Oil Price Cap: "We Will Buy From Russia, We'll Buy From Wherever" - The White House called on India and China to implement the G7’s price restrictions on Russian oil exports. Since the West started to curb energy exports from Moscow in response to the war in Ukraine, India and China have significantly increased their imports of Russian energy. On Tuesday, Moscow and Beijing signed a new agreement to trade oil in yuan and rubles. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said he hopes China and India will join the G7’s price cap on Russian oil. "Our hope is that countries like China and India will join the price cap coalition, or take advantage of the price cap coalition, to lower the amount of money” that Russia makes from oil exports," the official said on Tuesday. Last week, the G7 announced it would set a maximum price for which Russia could sell its oil. In order for the West’s plan to work, Moscow and other countries must comply. The Kremlin reacted sharply to the announcement by indefinitely closing the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a move which sent European gas prices skyrocketing. The price cap is the West’s latest move in a months-long economic war with Russia. In response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden said he would attempt to destroy the isolated economy. So far, the sanctions regime has largely backfired as Europeans suffer with gas prices at 10 times the average and the Russian economy has fared far better than expected. Part of the Kremlin’s economic success has been finding a market for its oil in China and India. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air reports that Russia exported about $158 billion in oil from February to August. While most of that was exported to Europe, the EU decreased its imports over that period. India's oil minister had preempted Washington urgings by kicking off the week bluntly staying, "We will buy oil from Russia, we will buy from wherever... I have a moral duty to my consumer."

India is Likely Reselling Russian Oil to the West, Says Study -- India’s fast-rising Russian oil imports are being matched by its rising oil exports suggesting it may be reselling Russia’s oil to the West, a Petro Logistics studyclaims.India exported an estimated 308 kb/d (thousand barrels per day) of products to nations meaning they are likely to have used Russian crude oil, it said.“Over a third of these products are being imported by countries with some form of sanctions on Russia,” the study said. “The top five countries are South Korea, Singapore, the USA, Australia, and the Netherlands.” “Since the invasion of Ukraine in February, Indian refiners have taken advantage of steep discounts to make the country one of the largest importers of Russian oil,” the study said.Indian imports of Russian crude soared to an average of 583 kb/d from April to June 2022 following the war in Ukraine, said the study, 16 times more than 36 kb/d in 2021.In doing so, Indian companies have avoided the US dollar and are using Asian currencies to pay for Russian oil imports to avoid being tied up in sanctions, Insider reported.India’s trade has come at the expense of US oil sellers, it added, who sold 166 kb/d less oil to India since the war in Ukraine, a steeper decline than any other country. President Joe Biden previously told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that buying more oil from Russia was not in India’s interest and could hamper the US response to the war in Ukraine.It is hard to draw any strong conclusions on which Indian imports can be precisely attributed to Russian crude, the Petro study said.Petro’s estimates suggest that America is importing Indian gasoline, Singapore is buying gasoil and South Korea purchasing naptha, all which are likely made using Russian crude.

India's PM Modi says he's keen to boost ties with Russia, including energy -India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Wednesday that he is keen to boost ties with Russia, even as the country has been ostracized from the international community following its war in Ukraine. During an online address to the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, Modi spoke of a "special partnership" between the two countries and expressed particular interest in bolstering their cooperation on energy and coking coal. The Indian leader also pointed to the impact of Covid-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war on global supply chains, and called for "diplomacy and dialogue" in ending the conflict. "In today's globalized world, events in one part of the world create an impact on the entire world," said Modi, in a translation first reported by the Hindustan Times. "The Ukraine conflict and the Covid pandemic have had a major impact on global supply chains. Food grain, fertilizer, and fuel shortages are a matter of great concern for developing countries," he continued. "From the very beginning of the Ukraine conflict, we have emphasized the need to adopt the path of diplomacy and dialogue. We support all peaceful efforts to end this conflict," Modi added. Western allies step up pressure on Russia The comments come as Western allies are seeking to step up their economic squeeze on Russia. Last Friday, the G-7 announced plans to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil in a bid to curtail the Kremlin's ability to fund its onslaught in Ukraine. However, to be successful, members said the initiative would require buy-in from the broader international community — specifically major economies such as India and China. Until now, India, which has upped its purchases of Russian oil following the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, has refused to be held on the issue. Speaking to CNBC Monday, India's Petroleum Minister Shri Hardeep Singh Puri said the country would consider the proposals "very carefully," but added that he felt no moral obligation to sign up. Watch CNBC's full interview with India's Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh PuriWATCH NOW VIDEO15:47 Watch CNBC's full interview with India's Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri "No, there's no conflict. I have a moral duty to my consumer. Do I as a democratically elected government want a situation where the petrol pump runs dry?," Puri told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at Gastech 2022 in Milan, Italy. As of the end of March, Russia accounted for just 0.2% of India's oil imports, according to Puri, with the vast majority of the country's oil consumption — 5 million barrels per day — coming from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Still, Modi in his speech Wednesday heralded the growing economic links between India and Russia. Specifically, he praised the 2019 launch of the "Act Far-East" policy, which saw India extend a $1 billion line of credit to the resource-rich region for developments in energy, diamonds and pharmaceuticals. "This policy has become a major pillar of the special and privileged strategic partnership between India and Russia," he said.

Shell and Total Namibia oil discoveries likely in billions of barrels –minister -- Namibian offshore oil and gas discoveries by TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and Shell (SHEL.L) are of commercial quantities, likely in the billions of barrells, the southern African nation’s mines and energy minister said on Friday. Both companies announced earlier this year that they had made “significant” discoveries offshore Namibia, and are currently making assessments. The companies did not detail the quantities found but a source told Reuters that Total’s discovery was more than 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The discoveries could make Namibia, the southern neighbour of OPEC member Angola, the latest oil producer along the African Atlantic coast. “The companies are cautious, but have talked about commercial quantities in billions of barrels,” Namibia Mines and Energy Minister Tom Alweendo told Reuters on the sideline of an oil conference in Dakar, Senegal. “The commerciality is there. They basically want to make sure that before they commit to production investment, they know what exact quantities are there,” Alweendo said. He added that the firms are in the process of drilling their second and third wells, and by the end of the year they would have done the appraisals and have estimated figures. The minister told the conference on Thursday that the companies could start production in four years./p>

Northern Groups Call for Removal of Petroleum Subsidy – Meanwhile, the Concerned Northern Forum (CNF) in Conjunction with some civil society groups have called on President Muhammadu Buhari to remove petroleum subsidy. The group also kicked against the N48 billion pipeline security contract awarded by the federal government to a former Niger Delta militant, Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo.Addressing a press conference yesterday in Kaduna, Chairman of CNF, Ibrahim Bature, said petroleum subsidy, “is the greatest crime being perpetrated against Nigerians.” The group said, “the subsidy regime which has regularly stopped the NNPC from contributing revenue to the federal government, has stunted infrastructural development.”Bature called on the federal government to consider the removal of the subsidy so as, “to take the feeding bottle away from the mouths of cartels stealing our common wealth.” The group also faulted claims by the NNPC and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources that an estimated 200,000-400,000 barrels of crude are stolen per day, arguing that recent statements by the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Gambo and Ali, showed that such claim was outrageous and unrealistic.“We wish to call on Mr. President to look critically into the position of both the Nigeria Custom and Nigerian Navy over the outrageous claims of theft in the oil and gas sector by the NNPC. “Our group deduced that the subsidy regime which has regularly stopped the NNPC from contributing revenue into the Federation Account is the greatest crime being perpetrated against Nigerians.” Bature said. The group further declared that it is, “vehemently opposed,” to the pipeline Surveillance Contract the NNPC awarded to Tompolo, insisting that, “it should be terminated with immediate effect.”The CNF urged the federal government to channel the N48 billion contract to addressing the developmental and environmental challenges in the Niger Delta region. Bature also called on the president to immediately sack the Head of the Nigeria Communication Satellite (NIGCOMSAT), “for failing to effectively cover the territory and expose crime to the relevant authorities.” The group asked Buhari to declare a state of emergency in the NNPC, “by appointing a military administrator to watch over the affairs of the company pending when investigations will be concluded into the subsidy regime that cost the country trillions of naira annually.”

Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria to Investigate Bayelsa Oil Spillage - Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) says it is investigating an oil spill from its facility at Ogboinbiri in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area of Bayelsa State. The oil spill is believed to be due to an operational mishap on August 24 at the Diebu Creek Flowstation which discharged some volume of crude oil into the area. The people of Peremabiri community, which is close to the flow station, have already complained of the dangerous effect of the spill on the environment and pointed fingers at the SPDC for their negligence.. They lamented that the delay by SPDC in responding to the spill has caused more damage to the environment and also impacted a wider area, including land, rivers and streams. Mike Adande, spokesperson of SPDC in a statement on Monday, confirmed the oil spill, saying the company had received the report and was working with regulators and the local community to investigate the incident.

Greenpeace sounds fresh alarm over sale of oil field to Singapore firm involved in spills -Greenpeace has renewed its call for the Government to block the sale of the offshore Maari oil field to Singaporean firm Jadestone Energy, after the company was involved in an oil spill in Australia in June. Austrian oil giant OMV agreed in 2019 to sell its 69% interest the Maari field, which may be nearing the end of its productive life, to Jadestone.The deal, worth at least US$50 million (NZ$82m), would have Jadestone take over the operation of Maari, but Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) petroleum manager Susan Baas said it had yet to decide whether it would recommend the Government approve the change of ownership and operator.In June, Australia’s National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (Nopsema) ordered Jadestone to stop offloading fuel at its Montara oil field northwest of Darwin, after the firm reported spilling a few thousand litres of oil. Nopsema’s prohibition notice said its inspections showed a cargo tank holding 10,000 cubic metres of oil had “structural integrity issues” and there was the risk of an immediate and significant threat to the environment.Production resumed at Montara in July after a temporary fix was put in place, but has since been suspended after a further defect was found and the company decided to focus on remediation work.Last year, Nopsema ordered Jadestone to review its management of corrosion at the oil field after saying it was not satisfied with the results of inspections. Failings included Jadestone not taking sufficient action to identify corrosion-related hazards, “errors and omissions” in its calculations for servicing pipelines, and failures to show infrastructure was being suitably maintained.

New study suggests lacustrine shale reserves can bolster China's energy independence - Shale oil exploration has rapidly expanded since the beginning of the 21st century, particularly in North America. Since 2010, the production of marine shale oil has increased at an average rate of more than 25% annually, making the US the global leader in production with total recoverable resources pegged at approximately 20.7 billion tons. Developing shale oil resources has significant potential to shape energy security and geopolitics. In addition to marine shale oil, countries have also begun utilizing lacustrine basins for oil production. Lacustrine shale oil reserves are deemed optimal when their organic content is high, the reservoirs feature a suitably high pressure to facilitate formation, and the Ro value, which indicates the thermal maturity of shale, is greater than 1.0%. In China, the lacustrine medium-to-high maturity shale oil is characterized by mature liquid hydrocarbons and a high proportion of movable oil. While these characteristics make it a valuable resource, questions surrounding production costs and recoverable quantities remain. Furthermore, without low development costs it remains to be seen if these reserves can be utilized economically. Now, a group of petroleum scientists led by Dr. Wenzhi Zhao at the China National Petroleum Corporation, have presented their evaluation of the enrichment conditions and occurrence characteristics of lacustrine shale oil reservoirs in China. "We have proposed a set of evaluation parameters for shale oil enrichment zones and evaluated the occurrence of optimal areas. This data will serve as a good reference to help promote the development of these oil reserves economically," says Dr. Zhao while explaining the motivation behind the research. This study was recently published in Earth Science Frontiers. The team utilized data collected from lacustrine medium-to-high maturity shale reserves currently being developed in China for their analyses, and specifically determined the optimal conditions for shale oil accumulation and the characteristics of these deposits. Their analysis revealed that shale with a high organic content and appropriate thermal maturity favored oil retention. "The optimal organic content of this shale ranges from three to four percent, and kerogen I and II seems to be the dominant type of organic matter. Interestingly, the Ro values of this shale were greater than 0.9%. Finally, these reservoirs must exhibit a certain degree of brittleness and have porosities between three to six percent," says Dr. Zhao when asked to elaborate on the key findings. In addition to these parameters, shale oil with good mobility was found when large amounts of high-quality hydrocarbons were present, and the enrichment interval of this oil was highly dependent on the reservoir having a tightly sealed roof and floor. "What we see is that major enrichment of oil occurs at semi-deep to deep depositional zones. Moreover, the distribution of shale oil enrichment intervals is governed by the type of lithologies as oil and gas is retained in the source rock. Shale assemblages are the best lithologic sections while Mudstone is not," observes Dr. Zhao, surmising the characteristics of these shale oil deposits. The team pegs the total shale oil reserves in China with medium-to-high maturity to be close to 16.3 billion tons of which nearly 8.4 billion tons could be developed commercially.

ONGC denies reports on shale/gas oil exploration in Cauvery delta - The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Ltd. has denied reports of shale/gas oil exploration in Cauvery delta. Referring to the charges levelled by Anti-Methane Federation recently that it had engaged M/s CONOCO Philips, U.S., for shale gas/ oil exploration in Cauvery delta, the ONGC in a statement said: "ONGC hereby clarifies that it is neither carrying out nor has any plans to explore shale oil/gas or coal bed methane in Cauvery basin in Tamil Nadu. The allegations are misleading." On its part, the Anti-Methane Project Movement reiterated its charge that the ONGC had a tie-up with M/s CONOCO Philips. In a press release, the chief coordinator of the Anti-Methane Project Movement K. Jayaraman claimed he had documentary evidences to establish collaboration between ONGC and the U.S.-based company for joint exploration in Damodar Valley, Cauvery basin and Krishna-Godavari basin under phase-I.

Damaged gas pipelines repaired in Balochistan: SSGC - Gas supply to affected areas of Balochistan will be restored shortly as the technical team of Sui Southern Gas Company has repaired the 12-inch diameter gas pipeline swept away by rains and floods in the Bibi Nani area of Bolan district. Talking to media on Sunday, the SSGC officials told that the repair work of the affected pipelines had been completed, after which the PNC branch gave the green signal to the SSGC’s transmission team for restoration of gas to parts of the province, including Quetta. The province is without gas for over a week following the damage caused by heavy rains and flash flood to 24 inch wide and 12 inch diameter gas pipelines in Bibi Nani area.

Adnoc awards key contract for giant onshore oilfield as it targets 5 million bpd capacity - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has awarded a prized contract to Dubai-headquartered Kent for work on the full field development of its onshore Bab Far North project. Two people familiar with the development told Upstream that the emirati giant recently awarded Kent a contract covering the front-end engineering and design following a competitive tender process. One person said the project is a key component of Abu Dhabi’s ongoing expansion plans, which aim to scale up the emirate’s oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2030, up from the existing 4 million bpd capacity. The oil-rich emirate is spending billions of dollars on onshore and offshore incremental and maintenance contracts, as it eyes a high production capacity by the end of this decade. A second source said the most recent development project is a follow-up to the ongoing CO2 WAG (water and gas injection) pilot scheme at the Bab Far North Area. The workscope for the latest contract involves 22 new oil producers and 32 WAG injectors, along with multiple pads, he noted. A carbon dioxide recovery plant and injection facilities, oil, water and CO2 injection networks and other associated surface facilities are also envisaged, project watchers said.

Clashes Between Libyan Armed Factions - In Libya, there were clashes between Libyan armed factions on the western outskirts of Tripoli in Wasrshafala as GNU allied forces further consolidated their power over the capital, Dryad Global noted in its latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA). “Witness reports indicate that mortars were fired over the course of the fighting on 2-3 of September,” the MSTA stated. “This follows deadly clashes the previous week. Clashes are militia-based, short and targeted and primarily centralized to the outskirts of the city. There are no indications that there is an immediate threat to port infrastructure,” the MSTA added. “General Haftar claimed that he will not provide support to Bashagha to seize the capital, limiting Bashagha’s capabilities to launch an assault,” the MSTA continued. In its previous MSTA, Dryad highlighted that deadly clashes had broken out in Libya between militias loyal to parliament elected Prime Minister Bashagha and UN-backed Prime Minister Dbeibah. In a report sent to Rigzone on September 4, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research noted that Libyan production has been volatile in the year to date. “The delay to presidential elections, scheduled for December 2021, has led to the re-emergence of two rival governments and an increase in political unrest and factional fighting,” Fitch Solutions analysts stated in the report. “In keeping with historical norms, oil production and export infrastructure has been targeted for leverage in the conflict, with output reaching a monthly low of 632,000 barrels per day in July,” the analysts added. “Production has since recovered and the country is now producing at its peak capacity of around 1.2 million barrels per day. We do not expect any meaningful political progress to made in the near term, with the two sides stuck in a stalemate. With output currently at its peak, this poses considerable downside risk to future production, with renewed outages likely to occur,” the analysts went on to note. In the report, the analysts also highlighted that “these outages tend to be brief and the market has become largely desensitized to them, blunting the impact on prices”.

Renewed Clashes In Tripoli Threaten Libyan Oil Production - Renewed clashes broke out over the weekend in oil-rich Libya’s capital as militia forces aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) moved to ensure continued control after a failed attempt by the rival eastern-backed prime minister to take Tripoli last week. Fighting took place in the city's western outskirts on Friday and Saturday, Reuters reports. Current interim prime minister Hamid Al-Dbeibah is attempting to shore up control and weed out militias aligned with newly appointed parliamentary-backed prime minister Fathi Bashagha. Dbeibah’s key concern now is gaining control of various armed factions within Tripoli that have not aligned definitively with one side or the other. Turkey could play the role of kingmaker here, with the ability to military intervene on either Dbeibah’s or Bashagha’s side, and both prime ministers visited the Turkish capital last week. Al-Monitor poses that a quiet Turkish intervention has “tipped the balance of power in favor of Dbeibah”, and cites unnamed sources as saying that Bashagha left the meeting in Ankara “disgruntled”, though there is no independent confirmation of this. At the same time, further fanning the flames, Libya’s former High Council of State head has accused the current head of the High Council of State and the speaker of the House of Representatives, the influential Aquila Saleh, of conspiring with Egyptian intelligence to install a new government without elections, the Libya Observer reports. A week ago, the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) reported that production had hit 1.22 million bpd. Libya hopes to boost output to 2 million bpd over the next three to five years, but progress may be slowed by the country’s inability to resolve its internal political rivalries, with all factions vying for their share of the country’s oil wealth.

OPEC+ Flags Adverse Impact of Volatility -The latest OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting, which was held on September 5, noted the adverse impact of volatility, the decline in liquidity on the current oil market and the need to support the market’s stability and its efficient functioning, OPEC outlined. According to a statement posted on OPEC’s website following the session, the meeting noted that higher volatility and increased uncertainties require the continuous assessment of market conditions and a readiness to make immediate adjustments to production in different forms, if needed. “OPEC+ has the commitment, the flexibility, and the means within the existing mechanisms of the declaration of cooperation to deal with these challenges and provide guidance to the market,” OPEC said in the statement. At the meeting, OPEC+ decided to revert to the production level of August 2022 for the month of October 2022, outlining that the upward adjustment of 100,000 barrels per day to the production level was only intended for the month of September 2022. The group also decided to request the chairman to consider calling for an OPEC+ meeting anytime to address market developments, if necessary, and to hold the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting on October 5. Saudi Arabia and Russia have the joint highest “required production” for October, at 11.004 million barrels per day, according to a production table posted on OPEC’s website. In a report sent to Rigzone on Monday, prior to OPEC+’s latest meeting, BofA Global Research highlighted that there were strong political, economic, strategic, and financial arguments to avoid implementing a production cut. “With global energy prices at exceptionally high levels due to the unfolding European gas and power crisis, a move by OPEC+ now to curb crude volumes could spook Washington, Brussels, and even Beijing,” BofA Global Research stated in the report. “In addition, OPEC+ government coffers are broadly in very good shape after Brent averaged $104 per barrel so far this year. Meanwhile, upstream capex has recovered a bit as well from the abysmal levels of 2020/21, with some OPEC+ members leading the charge and presumably wanting to grow market share into 2030, another reason to hold off on a cut for now,” BofA Global Research added. “Still, the main arguments against a production cut are economic. There is simply too much uncertainty around fundamentals going into the winter,” BofA Global Research continued.

Oil prices jump over $2 ahead of OPEC-plus meeting to discuss output cut - (Reuters) -Oil prices rose more than $2 a barrel on Monday, extending gains as investors eyed possible moves by OPEC+ producers to cut output and support prices at a meeting later in the day. Brent crude futures advanced by $2.43, or 2.6%, to $95.45 a barrel by 0850 GMT after rising 0.7% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $2.21, or 2.5%, at $89.08 after a 0.3% gain in the previous session. U.S. markets are closed for a public holiday on Monday. At their meeting later on Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, will discuss oil output cuts of 100,000 barrels per day among other options, sources from the group told Reuters. "The group is expected to leave output targets unchanged, but it's likely that a cut will be at least discussed; which, if followed through on, would create more volatility and uncertainty at a time of considerable unease," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer and a key OPEC+ member, does not support a production cut at this time and the producer group is likely to decide to keep output steady, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing unnamed sources. Oil prices have fallen in the past three months from multi-year highs hit in March, pressured by concerns that interest rate increases and COVID-19 curbs in parts of China could slow global economic growth and dent oil demand. Lockdown measures in China's southern technology hub of Shenzhen eased on Monday as new infections showed signs of stabilisingm though the city remains on high vigilance. Meanwhile, talks to revive the West's 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, potentially providing a supply boost from Iranian crude returning to the market, has hit a new snag. The White House on Friday rejected Iran's call for a deal to be linked with closure of investigations by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, a Western diplomat said.

Oil producer group OPEC+ surprises energy markets with a small production cut - A group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers on Monday agreed on a small output cut from next month, surprising energy markets at a time of considerable turmoil.OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an influential energy alliance known as OPEC+, decided to cut production targets by about 100,000 barrels per day from October.Energy analysts had broadly expected the group to stay the course with its production policy.Last month, OPEC+ agreed to raise oil output by just 100,000 barrels per day. The minuscule boost was widely interpreted as a rebuff to U.S. President Joe Biden after his visit to Saudi Arabia to ask the OPEC kingpin to pump more to cool prices and help the global economy."The President has taken action – including historic release of oil from U.S. and global strategic reserves and working with allies on a price cap on Russian oil to ensure we maintain a global supply of oil, even as we punish Putin for his action," said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.OPEC+ said in a statement that Monday's decision to revert back to August levels of production was because the upward adjustment was "intended only for the month of September."The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for Oct. 5.Oil prices traded sharply higher but were off the day's highs on Monday afternoon. International benchmark Brent crude futures were up 2.5% at $95.54 a barrel at around 1 p.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 2.6% at $89.16 a barrel.Oil prices have fallen around 25% since early June after touching multiyear highs in March. The decline has been fueled by growing concerns that interest rate hikes and Covid-related restrictions in parts of China could slow global economic growth and curtail oil demand.Monday's announcement from OPEC+ comes amid a bitter and escalating energy dispute between Russia and the West, with many in Europe deeply concerned about the prospect of recession and a winter gas shortage.Meanwhile, market participants are closely monitoring the prospect of asupply boost from Iranian crude if Tehran can secure a renewed version of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Oil climbs 4% after OPEC+ decides to trim output by 100,000 barrels a day -Oil prices jumped 4% on Monday after OPEC+ crude producers agreed to cut output quotas and Russia said it won't sell its exports to countries that abide by a US-led planned price cap. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies agreed at a meeting Monday to reduce production by 100,000 barrels a day from October, surprising analysts who widely expected the group to maintain current levels. Leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia floated the idea last month to ease pricing dysfunction in the oil market. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were up 4.0% at $96.77 at last check, while WTI crude futures, the US benchmark, were 3.8% higher at $90.19. Oil prices have slid about 20% from their June highs, in part because of growing concerns about a global recession that would knock demand. An OPEC+ cut to supply levels, even if small, could help support oil prices. The group said it was returning quotas back to August levels because its previously agreed addition of 100,000 barrels a day in September was intended for that month only. Oil market analysts had largely expected no change to supply from OPEC+, giving as one factor the the uncertainty around whether the Iran nuclear talks would add more barrels to the market. But SEB strategists predicted the group would cut levels as it is already undershooting its target by 3 million barrels a day, creating a disconnect between its cap and actual production. "Saudi Arabia is currently producing at close to 11 mb/d. It has only produced at this level twice in history (2018 and 2020) and then just for a month or two,"

Brent Falls 3% as Traders Assess Fallout from Nord Stream -- Following Monday's sharp rally triggered by a surprise production cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, oil futures were mixed in early trade Tuesday as investors assess the economic fallout from last week's announcement that Russia is planning to permanently shut down its main natural gas pipeline to Europe. Front-month Brent futures fell more than 3% early Tuesday in response to fresh economic data out of Germany, showing industrial orders plummeted 1.1% midsummer, bringing year-over-year contraction in the EU's largest manufacturing economy to 13.6%. These are staggering figures for Germany -- an EU powerhouse that is struggling to contain the economic hit from surging electricity and gas prices. On Monday, Dutch TTF futures once again leaped by a third before settling down 10% higher in response to Russia's announcement that its flagship gas pipeline, Nord Stream 1, with capacity to deliver 55 billion cubic meters will remain closed until the Europe Union removes all sanctions on Russia. While citing malfunctioning equipment at one of the compressor stations, Gazprom declined to reroute gas flows through functioning pipelines. As investors braced for an expected recession in the eurozone, the Euro sank below $0.99 on Monday to its lowest level in 20 years. Stocks fell in Germany, Italy, France, and other European markets. Markets staged a tepid rebound on Tuesday, with European equities rising in step with higher stock futures in the United States that were closed for the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ agreed on Monday to cut oil production for the first time in over a year, lowering the collective target by 100,000 bpd for the month of October. The small cut would reverse the 100,000 bpd that OPEC+ said it would add to the market last month, meaning the group's production targets will remain virtually unchanged at the August level. The decision to reverse the small production increase designed for September is more symbolic than fundamentally significant but it sends a clear signal that the alliance stands ready to defend the market should prices continue to fall. Some analysts believe the production cut is also a response to deepening lockdowns in China, recessionary risks in Europe and slowing economic growth in the United States. Near 7:30 am ET, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate futures slipped $0.15 to trade near $86.70 bbl, while Brent for November delivery plummeted to $93 bbl, down more than $2.70. NYMEX October RBOB futures softened 0.46 cents to $2.4590 gallon, and NYMEX October ULSD futures rallied to $3.6280 gallon, up by 5 cents.

Oil sinks as demand fears take steam out of OPEC-led rally - Oil prices fell on Tuesday as concern returned about the prospect of more interest rate hikes and COVID-19 lockdowns weakening fuel demand, reversing a two-day rally on OPEC+'s first output target cut since 2020. Brent crude settled at $92.83 a barrel, losing $2.91, or 3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from Monday's trading to settle at $86.88 a barrel, up 1 cent from Friday's close. The U.S. benchmark had been trading since Sunday without settlement due to the Labor Day holiday. WTI prices are down more than 2% from the usual time of settlement on Monday, Refinitiv Eikon data show. "The OPEC+ news is now in the market and the focus has temporarily shifted to economic and inflationary concerns amongst which the two relevant factors are the extended COVID lockdowns in China and Thursday's ECB rate decision," China has eased some COVID-19 curbs but extended lockdowns in Chengdu, which added to worries that high inflation and interest rate hikes will hit oil demand. The European Central Bank is widely expected to lift rates sharply when it meets on Thursday. A stronger U.S. dollar, which was up about 0.6% on better-than-expected U.S. services industry data, also put pressure on oil prices. The reading on services sector activity fed into expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates, which could trigger a recession and bring down fuel demand. "Basically, it's all about tight supplies and concerns about an economic slowdown that might happen in the future," "This has created a lot of uncertainty in the market." On the supply side, signs that an agreement to resurrect Iran's nuclear deal with world powers was less imminent challenged crude prices by reducing the odds that OPEC+ would move forward with its output reduction plan. The European Union's foreign policy chief said on Monday he was less hopeful about a quick revival of the deal. "You might not get an OPEC production cut if the Iranians don't bring barrels to the market," The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, decided on Monday to cut their October output target by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd). Prices rose on Friday ahead of the meeting and after the decision. .

Brent Crude Plunges Below $90, Posing A Major Challenge For OPEC+ --Oil is tumbling this morning with Brent slumping below $90 to the lowest since February and WTI dumping below $84 for the first time since January... ... as oil prices in the highest odds of any asset class as Goldman first pointed out last week. The drop has obviously undone all the earlier gains after Russian President Vladimir Putin underlined that his country won’t supply oil and fuel if price caps on the country’s exports are introduced, which briefly pushed oil higher. Putin’s comments follow the G7 most industrialized countries agreeing to back an oil price cap for global purchases of Russian oil. It remains unclear how many countries have signed up to put limits on Russia. The renewed weakness - which according to Bloomberg's Jake Lloyd Smith - is driven by a nasty combination of demand concerns plus the dollar’s jump to a record - will test OPEC+'s appetite for further action. When the cartel wrapped up its Monday meeting that endorsed a token 100,000 barrel a day cut in production, it also highlighted it would be willing to call another gathering “anytime to address market developments, if necessary.” Given the next scheduled talks are not until Oct. 5 - a full four weeks away - the latest selloff raises the possibility of an ad hoc session before then. After the tiny reduction in supply, OPEC+ kingpin Saudi Arabia showcased that OPEC+ would be “attentive, preemptive and pro-active” in terms of managing the world’s most important commodity market. Those very public comments, plus the subsequent weakness in prices, may herald a test of Riyadh’s resolve. Meanwhile, even as oil slides, the price of regular gasoline is once again rising in California after steady declines since mid-June reversed course over the Labor Day weekend. The end of the peak summer travel season typically brings lower fuel prices, but this year, a lack of imports and a refinery hiccup combined to drain stockpiles, sending wholesale and retail prices higher in the past week. Rising pump prices exacerbate the energy crisis Californians are already facing: a punishing heat wave and possible blackouts.

Oil slides to seven-month lows on economic woes -- Oil prices fell by more than $4 on Wednesday to their lowest since Russia invaded Ukraine on demand fears stoked by looming recession risks and downbeat Chinese trade data. Brent crude futures settled at $88 a barrel, for a loss of $4.83 or 5.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled $4.94, or 5.69%, lower at $81.94 per barrel. "The spectre of a demand-sapping recession across the Western world is closer to becoming reality as soaring inflation and rising interest rates dent consumption," Credit rating agency Fitch on Tuesday said that the halting of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has increased the likelihood of a recession in the euro zone. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates sharply when it meets on Thursday. A U.S. Federal Reserve meeting follows on Sept. 21. Weak economic data from China amid its stringent zero-COVID policy has also added to demand concerns. The country's crude oil imports in August fell 9.4% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Britain's new prime minister, Liz Truss, on Wednesday said she wanted to see more extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea. Prices had been supported earlier by a threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt all oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed on Russia's energy resources. The European Union proposed to cap Russian gas only hours later, raising the risk of rationing in some of the world's richest countries this winter. Analysts already expect oil supply to be tight in the last quarter of the year. U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have fallen for a fourth consecutive week, declining by an estimated 733,000 barrels in the week to Sept. 2, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

JPMorgan Expects OPEC+ To Cut Another 1 Million b/d In Output As Biden Mulls More SPR Releases - Back in June we joked that it will be very funny when MBS cuts OPEC+ output after fistbumping Biden... ... and two months (and one de minimis output hike) later that's precisely what happened.And yet, even though Saudi Arabia draw a line in the proverbial desert sand making it clear that any further price drops would likely be met with more output cuts, the price of oil tumbled to fresh 2022 lows as discussed in "Brent Crude Plunges Below $90, Posing A Major Challenge For OPEC+" amid a bizarre ongoing liquidation that some suggest smells like yet another government intervention.The problem is that with Saudi Arabia having made it clear that Brent below $100 is frowned upon and below $90 is unacceptable even if it means angering Biden, JPMorgan energy strategist Christyan Malek wrote that OPEC is likely to step in with additional cuts if oil downward momentum persists. Some more details from his note (available to pro subscribers):Monday’s OPEC+ meeting reinforces our view that upcoming agreements will seek to align the market with underlying fundamentals and encourage future investment. Given heightened volatility and a further fall in oil prices since the cut was announced (Brent down 8% month to date as we write), we believe further intervention may be necessary and suggest a cut up to 1mb/d may be needed to stem the downward momentum in prices and realign physical and paper markets which appear disconnected. Moreover, this may prove necessary in the context of our commodities team forecast of a surplus for next year of up to 0.6mb/d assuming demand rises from 100.2mb/d to 101.1mb/d 2022/23. Despite the near-term volatility, we remain bullish on the energy macro outlook as we forecast a sustained multi-year oil deficit averaging 0.6mb/d 2022-25 And just to ensure that OPEC+ will cut more than even the 1 million speculated by JPM, on Thursday afternoon Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told Reuters that Biden's administration is weighing the need for further releases of crude oil from the nation's emergency stockpiles after the current program ends in October. This comes on a day when we learned that SPR was drained by a near record 7.5 million barrels and the total inventory in the emergency reserve dropped to just 442 million barrels, the lowest since 1984!

WTI Holds 'Death Cross' Losses After API Reports Surprise Crude Inventory Build - Despite OPEC+ cutting production at the margin, oil slumped below pre-Putin levels today as demand concerns emanating from China and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from central banks prompted a wave of selling that turned into a frenzy as prices breached technical warning levels.“Elevated volatility is the story here,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “There is no way to have conviction and want to place bets when the market trades in huge ranges with limited liquidity. The risk reward is just not there.”With prices at a key level and Putin outright threatening to withhold oil flows to 'unfriendly' nations, algos will be eagle-eyed on tonight's inventory data ahead of tomorrow's official print for signs that confirm fears of recession API:

• Crude +3.645mm
• Cushing -772k
• Gasoline -836k
• Distillates +1.833mm

For the first time in four weeks, US crude stocks increased last week (+3.645mm). Gasoline inventories drew-down for the seventh straight week... WTI suffered a 'death cross' today, pushing the price to its lowest since February... WTI was trading below $82 ahead of the print and held those losses...

WTI Slides After Biggest Crude Build In 5 Months, Record SPR Draw - Oil prices are up this morning, a brief respite after yesterday's tumble (and 'death cross') and follows API reporting an unexpected crude build. “Recession woes, weak Chinese export/import data and COVID-related lockdowns are the primary price drivers at the moment,” Oil’s deep loss on Wednesday came despite several supportive market factors. Russian President Putin said the country would not supply energy to any nations that backed a planned US-led price cap on the nation’s crude, and the EIA raised its outlook for global oil demand, while also cutting the forecast for US supply. DOE

• Crude +8.845mm (+300k exp) - biggest build since April
• Cushing -501k
• Gasoline +333k (-1.4mm exp)
• Distillates +95k (+200k exp)

After API reported an unexpected crude build, the official data confirmed it was even bigger with a 8.85mm barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillates also saw builds... The 8.8 million barrel build in commercial crude stockpiles was mostly offset by the withdrawal of 7.5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The net result was a nationwide crude build of just 1.3 million barrels in the week to Sept. 2. That’s the first build in total nationwide crude stockpiles in four weeks and the biggest build in two months.

Oil Edges up From Seven-Month Low as Russia Threatens Export Halt (Reuters) -Crude prices edged up about 1% on Thursday after dropping to a seven-month low in the prior session as some technical traders bought the dip and Russia threatened to halt oil and gas exports to some buyers. That price increase came despite a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories, news that the United States was weighing the need for more crude releases from strategic reserves and concerns China's COVID-19 lockdown extensions and rising global interest rates would slow economic activity and hit fuel demand. U.S. crude stockpiles surged by nearly 9 million barrels last week due to a combination of increased imports and ongoing releases from government emergency reserves, the Energy Information Administration said. The hefty build compares with the 250,000-barrel draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and data from American Petroleum Institute (API) industry group showing a 3.6 million barrel increase. [API/S] "Most of that oil in that build came from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The quicker we empty out the SPR, the bigger the draws are going to be in the future," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Joe Biden's administration was weighing the need for further releases of crude oil from the nation's emergency stockpiles. Brent futures rose $1.15, or 1.3%, to settle at $89.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.60, or 2.0%, to settle at $83.54. On Wednesday, both benchmarks dropped more than 5% to close at their lowest levels since mid-to-late January, putting WTI into technically oversold territory for the first time in a month. "Today’s advance ... appears motivated mainly by an oversold technical condition that allowed the complex to shrug off a seemingly bearish crude stock build per the EIA," analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said. Prices also drew support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat to halt oil and gas exports if price caps are imposed by European buyers. The European Union proposed capping Russian gas prices, raising the risk of rationing this winter if Moscow carries out its threat. Russia's Gazprom has already halted flows from the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. Belgium's energy minister proposed a cap on wholesale gas prices rather than just Russian imports. Britain said it will cap consumer energy bills for two years. Concerns about the health of the global economy and expectations of falling fuel demand led to sharp oil price falls in the previous session. China's Chengdu extended a lockdown for a majority of its more than 21 million residents to prevent further transmission of COVID-19. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points and signalled further hikes, prioritising the fight against inflation even as the bloc's economy is heading for a likely winter recession. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is "strongly committed" to bringing down inflation and needs to keep going until it gets the job done. "Energy traders have mostly priced in the Chinese COVID shutdowns and demand concerns from aggressive tightening signals by the ECB and Fed,"

Global crude oil prices rise amid volatile trade - International crude oil prices recovered on Friday after opening in the negative territory amid volatile trade. Around 10.50 am, the November contract of Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $89.90 per barrel, higher by 0.84% from its previous close. The October contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX rose 0.65% to $84.08 a barrel. Analysts said that Russia’s threat to halt oil and gas exports to Europe in case price cap is imposed on energy exporting from the country, lifted the prices. However, demand concerns amid renewed lockdowns in China, one of the world’s largest importers of crude limited the gains. Further, the increase in US oil stocks also may weigh on the prices going ahead, according to analysts. Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd: “We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today’s session." Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities noted that oil prices recovered from session low and ended marginally higher on Thursday amid bargain buying and Russia’s threat to halt oil and gas exports to the European countries. He said that the upside remained capped in anticipation of lower demand for next week. “Looking ahead, crude prices could trade higher, but upside could be capped amid build in inventories, worries that central banks‘ aggressive rate hikes and China’s Covid-19 curbs will hurt demand." Investors would also eye the EU energy ministers‘ meeting at Brussels to discuss the ongoing energy crisis. The meeting, known as the European Energy Council, was called for by Czech industry minister Josef Sikela in late August after natural gas prices in the continental market continued to climb as a result of the Russo-Ukranian war.

Oil Rebounds as Supply Risks Outweigh Weak Global Economy -- Crude and refined products futures rallied 4% on Friday, although all petroleum contracts posted week-on-week losses. The gains came as traders balanced concerns over deeper demand destruction in Europe and the United States fueled by aggressive rate hikes from hawkish central banks against perceived risks of disruption in Russian oil supplies after Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to freeze all energy exports to countries that choose to participate in a G7 agreement to cap prices on Russian oil flows. Markets continue to dissect incoming details over a proposed plan by G7 nations to cap the price of Russian oil exports, with plenty of ambiguity remaining over the plan's implementation and enforcement mechanism. During a panel discussion hosted by the Brookings Institute on Friday, U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Economic Policy Ben Harris explained the price cap would likely fall into three distinct categories -- crude oil, high-volume refined products and low-volume refined products. He said further that the price cap has yet to be finalized with all interested parties, but that the measure is designed to facilitate the flow of Russian oil into the market, not to block it. Hence, the price cap must be above the marginal production cost of Russian oil that averages between $30 and $40 per barrel (bbl), although remote basins in Eastern Siberia and Arctic have a much higher price tag due to harsh climate and infrastructure challenges. Should Putin choose to cancel export contracts and shut-in production, the market is heading for a massive supply shock this winter. While addressing the audience at the Eastern Economic Forum, Putin signaled just that, saying, "If any political decisions are made that contradict our contractual obligations, we simply will not comply with them. We will not supply anything at all -- not oil, gas, fuel oil or coal. Nothing." In financial markets, U.S. dollar index, which has an inverse relationship with West Texas Intermediate, nosedived 0.65% to a 1 1/2-week low 108.997 on Friday after European Central Bank on Thursday raised interest rates by 75 basis points -- the largest margin on record. The sharp increase is aimed at lowering inflation across the eurozone which surged 9.1% in August and is projected to top 10% in coming months. Cooling inflation should spur greater demand for oil if the central bank avoids tipping the economy into recession with aggressive rate hikes. According to a best-case scenario, ECB expects economic growth to slow to 0.9% next year, narrowly missing recession before recovering to 1.9% in 2024. In the downside scenario where Russia cuts off all natural gas supplies to Europe, the collective economy is seen contracting by 0.9% in 2024 with wide-ranging implications for energy demand. At settlement, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate futures rallied $3.25 to $86.79 per bbl, while Brent for November delivery climbed to $92.84, up $3.69. NYMEX October RBOB futures advanced 8.7 cents to $2.4331 per gallon, and NYMEX October ULSD futures gained 3.86 cents to $3.5787 per gallon.

Oil rises 4% on supply threats, still set for weekly drop (Reuters) -Oil prices rose about 4% on Friday, supported by real and threatened cuts to supply, although futures posted a second weekly decline as aggressive interest rate hikes and China's COVID-19 curbs weighed on the demand outlook. Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to halt oil and gas exports to Europe if price caps are imposed and a small cut to OPEC+ oil output plans announced this week also supported prices. Brent crude rose $3.69, or 4.1%, to settle at $92.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $3.25, or 3.9% to settle at $86.79 a barrel. "Over the coming months, the West will have to contend with the risk of losing Russian energy supplies and oil prices soaring," Pressured by worries about a recession and demand, Brent is down sharply from a surge in March close to its all-time high of $147 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Group of Seven is trying to find ways to limit Russia's lucrative oil export revenue in the wake of the invasion. A price cap that G7 countries want to impose on Russian oil to punish Moscow should be set at a fair market value minus any risk premium resulting from its invasion of Ukraine, a U.S. Treasury Department official told reporters on Friday. Despite Friday's bounce, both crude benchmarks were headed for a weekly drop, with Brent down about 0.2% on the week after at one point hitting its lowest since January. WTI posted a weekly decline of 0.1%. If the U.S. Federal Reserve is able to keep the unemployment rate below 5%, it can be aggressive on bringing down inflation but after that tradeoffs will appear, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday. The Fed should be aggressive with rate hikes while the economy "can take a punch," he said. A U.S. Department Of Energy official said the White House was not considering new releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at this time beyond the 180 million barrels that President Joe Biden announced months ago. Earlier, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told Reuters the administration was weighing the need for further SPR releases. "The White House is backing off another release from the SPR," U.S. oil rigs fell five to 591 this week, their lowest since mid June, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said, as the growth in the rig count and production has slowed despite relatively high energy prices. Meanwhile, European Central Bank's unprecedented rate hike of 75 basis points this week and more COVID-19 lockdowns in China have weighed on prices. The city of Chengdu extended a lockdown for most of its more than 21 million residents on Thursday while millions more in other parts of China were told to shun travel during upcoming holidays. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions by 3,274 contracts to 165,158 in the week to Sept. 6, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

US Tells Israel Nuclear Deal With Iran Is Off The Table For Now - The Israeli news website Zman Yisrael said it has "learned" that a new nuclear deal between the US and Iran is off the table and will not be signed in the "foreseeable future." Zman Yisrael didn’t cite any sources but said that this message had been conveyed to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in recent conversations with President Biden and other US officials. Other major Israeli publications picked up on the story, as Bloomberg writes, "Top US officials have told Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid that a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers won't be signed in the foreseeable future, The Times of Israel reported."Prospects for a revival of the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, seemed unlikely after the US slammed Iran’s latest response in the ongoing negotiations as "not encouraging" and "moving backwards."The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrel, has been brokering the negotiations, but said on Monday that he thinks the deal is "in danger." The comments marked Borrel’s most pessimistic remarks about the talks they were recently restarted by the EU.Israel is strongly opposed to the deal and has been pressuring the US to scrap negotiations. Lapid said on Tuesday that it was still "too early" to know if the pressure has worked and issued a fresh threat against Iran.Lapid said Israel must do what it takes to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. But if that were his concern, he should favor a revival of the JCPOA as it puts Iran’s civilian nuclear program under strict limits and makes it subject to the most intrusive inspections in the world.Lapid is expected to play up the fact that he averted a new Iran deal by pressuring the US as part of his election campaign. Israel’s election will be held on November 1, and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a contender.

The Iran Nuclear Deal Is Falling Apart - In an unexpected move this week, Albania severed diplomatic ties with Iran over a cyberattack and then searched the empty Iranian embassy, where exiting diplomats had burned documents in a rush to vacate within the 24 hours demanded by Tirana. The severing of diplomatic ties was prompted by a cyberattack that took place in late July, exposing the names, addresses, and other personal information of Albanian opposition politicians, and attempting to paralyze public services and create chaos and insecurity. Iran has called the allegations that it was behind the cyberattack “baseless”. The Iran nuclear deal has lost further momentum following an IAEA report that says it is not possible to “provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful”, noting the past presence of nuclear material at undeclared sites. Israeli media is now suggesting that the Iran nuclear deal is “off the table”, with unconfirmed reports saying that US officials have indicated such to Israeli officials in recent conversations. Again, this cannot be confirmed. We continue to monitor the unstable situation in Iraq, which as we noted in previous briefings, has spread to the oil-producing governorate of Basra. This instability has the potential to take a serious amount of oil production offline. The Islamic State is also taking advantage of that instability to regroup and stage new attacks in northern…

Saudis Using Snitching App Sold By Google To Identify Dissidents - Saudi Arabians are using a mobile app sold by both Apple and Google to snitch on their fellow citizens for dissenting against government authorities. As a result, activists and others are going to prison for more than 30 years in some cases, Business Insider reported on Friday. On August 16, Saudi national Salma el-Shabab, a PhD student at Leeds University, was sentenced to 34 years in prison for tweets “in support of activists and members of the kingdom’s political opposition in exile,” the report said. Though the posts were made while she was in the UK, el-Shabab was nonetheless reported through the “Kollona Amn” app and immediately arrested upon returning home. “Every day we wake up to hear news, somebody has been arrested, or somebody has been taken,” Real, a Saudi women’s-rights activist using an alias, told Insider. Kollona Amn – which roughly translates to “We Are All Security” in Arabic – was launched by the Saudi Interior Ministry in 2017, but the last few years have seen a “dramatic” surge in court cases referencing the app, according to legal-rights activists. The app “encourages everyday citizens to play the role of police and become active participants in their own repression. Putting the state’s eyes everywhere also creates a pervasive sense of uncertainty – there is always a potential informant in the room or following your social media accounts,” said Noura Aljizawi, a researcher at Citizen Lab, which focuses on threats to free speech online. The Orwellian nature of the app is such that users often report on people “defensively,” fearing they could face punishment themselves for merely overhearing speech deemed offensive to the regime. In some cases, the app has also been used for “blackmail” and to “settle scores,” Insider noted. Despite its role in crushing dissent in the repressive Gulf monarchy, the app is still sold by both Google and Apple, neither of which responded to Insider’s requests for comment. Google, moreover, is set to open two new offices in Saudi Arabia sometime this year, and is now working on a controversial data partnership with the state-run oil firm Saudi Aramco. The tech giant insists it will safeguard user data, but some activists say the move will “risk lives” and hand the government additional tools to spy on citizens. In some cases, privacy concerns have led activists to keep two or three phones – one containing government apps and others without them – in an attempt to avoid the Kingdom’s totalitarian surveillance, facilitated by American companies.

“Czech Republic First” - More than 100 000 people protest in Prague over soaring energy prices, government policy toward Russia, Czech Republic - (videos) Tens of thousands of people gathered in the capital Prague, Czech Republic on September 3, 2022, demanding the government to end sanctions against Russia and establish a new gas supply deal. Locals say the protests were joined by more than 100 000 people, from the far-right and left, all of them from the capital.

• At the end of August 2022, electricity costs in the Czech Republic became the highest in Europe.
• Protesters threaten strike and coercive action if the government doesn’t resign by September 25.
• They say this is the future for all governments that act against the interests of their people.

The protesters gathered under the banner of “Czech Republic First” – demanding that the country’s coalition take more steps to rein in surging energy costs. They called for the end of sanctions against Russia and the establishment of a new gas supply deal, the resignation of the country’s prime minister and to immediately stop supplying Ukraine with arms. Opposition to the EU and NATO was also voiced, with protestors saying that the Czech Republic should be militarily neutral. The protest took place just one day after the country’s coalition government survived a no-confidence vote. The average cost of electricity in Prague in July 2022 was 52.15 euro cents per kilowatt-hour at the Czech Republic’s purchasing power parity, good enough to edge London, United Kingdom (51.85 euro cents) for the most expensive electricity in Europe.1 To compare the prices in the Czech Republic to some of its V4 neighbors, the cost of electricity in the country is more than 60% higher than Poland (31.83 euro cents per kilowatt-hour) over double that of Slovakia (23.51) and more than triple prices in Hungary (16.20). After demonstrations in Prague, the same voices were raised in Köln (Cologne), the fourth largest city in Germany. The protesters are demanding the lifting of sanctions against Russia and neutrality in the Ukraine war.

Czech PM Blames 'Russian Propaganda' For Mass Protests In Prague --Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala is blaming pro-Russian forces for mass demonstrations this weekend that saw tens of thousands of people protest against the government, the European Union and NATO amid soaring energy prices and inflation. The “Czechia First” demonstration saw 70,000 people gather to protest the government in a development the Czech prime minister is blaming on elements influenced by Russian propaganda. “It is clear that Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns repeatedly appear on our territory and that someone is simply succumbing to them,” Fiala said, as reported by Euractiv.Protesters, brought together by the Communist Party, the Freedom party, the Direct Democratic Party, and other groups labeled as “radical”--both far-left and far-right–called on the government to address soaring energy prices and the highest cost of living since the early 1990s for everything from housing to consumer goods.

Energy Crisis Empties Greenhouses in World’s Top Flower Producer -The Netherlands, the world’s top flower exporter and one of Europe’s largest producers of fresh fruit and vegetables, is warning of a steep output plunge as crippling energy costs stifle the country’s extensive network of greenhouses.Royal FloraHolland, the world’s largest flower market in Alsmeer, estimates Dutch flower production will drop by up to 40% between Christmas and next spring due to the rising costs of maintaining greenhouses, spokesperson Michiel van Schie told Bloomberg.The expenses of heating and lighting the glass structures that sprawl over an area equivalent to 17,000 soccer fields now make up as much as 70% of the cost of most greenhouse crops, more than double that for last year, according to industry group Glastuinbouw Nederland….Soaring costs are also making the sale of energy contracts to other users more profitable than growing plants as agreements signed later in the year are expected to be even pricier. “I was told of one farmer who sold his energy contract, which he’d fixed for several years, for 35 million euros,” Schie said. The drop in production means growers in sunnier climates such as Spain and Morocco are likely to grab a share of lost output from the Netherlands, a lucrative market where exports of greenhouse produce amounted to 9.2 billion euros ($9.5 billion) in 2020. Nevertheless, any shortages will further stoke inflation across Europe, where food prices have already soared 11% from a year earlier in a cost-of-living crisis that shows little sign of easing.

Rampant electricity prices stop Swedish winter tomatoes - Mindaugas Krasaukas, site manager at Nordic Greens in Trelleborg, describes it as a big step backwards when it is no longer possible to grow tomatoes in Sweden during the winter. There are many people who try to buy Swedish and we receive many positive emails and messages from our consumers. It’s really sad, they will miss our products. This is Sweden’s largest tomato farm, which spreads over 160,000 square meters of greenhouse space on the outskirts of Trelleborg. For eight years, winter cultivation has been underway in some of the greenhouses. The winter plants are usually planted at the end of September, but everything is based on them receiving additional heat and light. The heating takes place with the help of the company’s own chip boilers, but the lighting requires electricity and the lights must be on from October to April. – Our electricity bill used to be at least one million kroner a month. With these prices prevailing now, we can land on five to six million a month, says Mindaugas Krasaukas. Producing your own electricity could be a possibility in the long term, but it would take at least two years to carry out such an upgrade and right now it is impossible to know if it would pay off. – We have to wait and see what happens with the electricity price during the winter. The location in Sweden’s most expensive electricity price area is a major disadvantage for a company that requires electricity, he notes. But right now there are no serious plans to move. Sweden’s second largest tomato company, Elleholm’s tomato farm in Mörrum, Bleking, is also located in electricity price area four with the highest electricity price. Thomas and Carola Lilja runs the company on 60,000 square meters of greenhouse space and before last winter they invested SEK 7.5 million in lighting to be able to grow all year round in part of the facility. It was a flop. When we started the lighting in October, the electricity prices started to skyrocket, says Thomas Lilja. In December, they were forced to turn off the lights on half the area and let the tomato plants wither. The lights are still on, but growing tomatoes this winter is not on the map.

Putin Threatens "Scam" Ukraine Grain Export Deal, Says Most Ships Diverted To EU - President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday threatened to abandon the UN-brokered Ukraine grain export deal which has lately been declared by Turkey to be a 'success' - given at this point dozens of cargo ships have now traversed the Black Sea from Ukrainian ports since the agreement signed in Istanbul went into effect. The Russian leader alleged while giving an opening speech before the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Wednesday that Western powers are acting "like colonial powers" and using the deal deceptively. He described that while Western officials decried Russia's blocking food from getting to global south countries, such as in Africa or in Asia, the reality is that most of the ships to depart through the 'safety corridor' so far have ended up in Europe, according to his assertions. The grain deal, finalized in late July, was preceded by months of EU and US officials decrying Moscow policies in blockading Ukraine's coast, which they said would cause famine in the developing world - heavily reliant on grain from the region. The Kremlin response was to blame Ukraine's military for mining its own ports. "What we see is a brazen deception ... a deception by the international community of our partners in Africa, and other countries that are in dire need of food. It's just a scam," Putin said. Putin is accusing Ukraine's Western backers of "cheating" by adopting the cause of poorer countries when it comes to public rhetoric, but in reality diverting food shipments: "Only 3% of the grain being exported from Ukraine is going to developing countries, the majority is going to Europe… over the past decades European countries have acted like colonial powers, they are continuing to act like that today," Putin claimed. "Once again, they have deceived developing countries," he continued, saying "it may be worth considering how to limit the export of grain and other food along this route."

Peace Talks Essential as War Rages on in Ukraine - Medea Benjamin -Six months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. The United States, NATO and the European Union (EU) wrapped themselves in the Ukrainian flag, shelled out billions for arms shipments, and imposed draconian sanctions intended to severely punish Russia for its aggression.Since then, the people of Ukraine have been paying a price for this war that few of their supporters in the West can possibly imagine. Wars do not follow scripts, and Russia, Ukraine, the United States, NATO and the European Union have all encountered unexpected setbacks.Western sanctions have had mixed results, inflicting severe economic damage on Europe as well as on Russia, while the invasion and the West’s response to it have combined to trigger a food crisis across the Global South. As winter approaches, the prospect of another six months of war and sanctions threatens to plunge Europe into a serious energy crisis and poorer countries into famine. So it is in the interest of all involved to urgently reassess the possibilities of ending this protracted conflict.For those who say negotiations are impossible, we have only to look at the talks that took place during the first month after the Russian invasion, when Russia and Ukraine tentatively agreed to a fifteen-point peace plan in talks mediated by Turkey. Details still had to be worked out, but the framework and the political will were there.Russia was ready to withdraw from all of Ukraine, except for Crimea and the self-declared republics in Donbas. Ukraine was ready to renounce future membership in NATO and adopt a position of neutrality between Russia and NATO.The agreed framework provided for political transitions in Crimea and Donbas that both sides would accept and recognize, based on self-determination for the people of those regions. The future security of Ukraine was to be guaranteed by a group of other countries, but Ukraine would not host foreign military bases on its territory.On March 27, President Zelenskyy told a national TV audience, “Our goal is obvious—peace and the restoration of normal life in our native state as soon as possible.” He laid out his “red lines” for the negotiations on TV to reassure his people he would not concede too much, and he promised them a referendum on the neutrality agreement before it would take effect.Such early success for a peace initiative was no surprise to conflict resolution specialists. The best chance for a negotiated peace settlement is generally during the first months of a war. Each month that a war rages on offers reduced chances for peace, as each side highlights the atrocities of the other, hostility becomes entrenched and positions harden.The abandonment of that early peace initiative stands as one of the great tragedies of this conflict, and the full scale of that tragedy will only become clear over time as the war rages on and its dreadful consequences accumulate.

China Banks Face Profit Squeeze From Covid, Property Crisis - China’s top banks are bracing for a squeeze on their profit margins as the world’s No2 economy continues to struggle with Covid and its ailing property sector lurches from crisis to crisis. The banks, preparing to respond to Beijing’s call to boost lending to the real economy and debt-laden property sector, are set to see their profits come under pressure in the second half, bankers and analysts warned. Five of China’s biggest state-owned banks posted modest gains in profits in the second quarter. Four of the banks, except for Bank of China, however, reported falling net interest margins, a key gauge of bank profitability. The dour outlook for Chinese banks comes as the world’s second-largest economy narrowly avoided contracting in the second quarter as widespread Covid-19 lockdowns and the slumping property sector badly damaged consumer and business confidence. With economic momentum cooling, Beijing has unveiled a string of interest rate cuts in the last few months and has been stepping up pressure on lenders with new instructions to grow loans. Lower asset yields as a result of reduced benchmark interest rates and continuing competition for deposits, a key source of funding for Chinese banks, means interest margins of banks will see greater pressure, analysts said. Banks have been asked by the Chinese government to support the country’s cash-strapped property sector, which accounts for nearly a quarter of gross domestic product. “Now they are told to support because the sector is going to [need] help … and I think there is no worse time because interest rates are on the way down and net interest margin has narrowed … the banks have much less leeway,”

China's Covid Restrictions Affect 49 Cities, Shanghai Forum Off - China’s Covid lockdown situation is deteriorating, according to Nomura, which said nearly 300 million people are now affected by restrictions imposed in 49 cities.The financial services group said in a note on Tuesday it is cutting its growth forecast for the third quarter by 0.3% points to 2.6% over the previous year because China “is battling the broadest wave of Covid infections thus far”.“As of 6 September, 49 cities are currently implementing various levels of lockdowns or some kind of district-based control measures,” chief China economist Ting Lu said, adding that “we estimate around 291.7 million individuals are currently affected by these measures.The cities and regions affected account for around 28 trillion yuan – over $4 trillion – of gross domestic product, with over a fifth of China’s population and close to a quarter of national GDP, he said. One high-profile casualty of the Covid curbs was the postponement on Tuesday of a key financial gathering set for this week in the financial hub of Shanghai.The Lujiazui Forum has been delayed from the initial dates of Wednesday and Thursday, the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau said in a statement, without giving new dates or saying if the recent outbreaks were a factor behind the move. The delay comes amid a fresh wave of Covid outbreaks in cities such as Shenzhen and Chengdu, and a time when China is gearing for a five-yearly congress of the ruling Communist Party on October 17, where President Xi Jinping is poised to secure a historic third leadership term. Late last month, Shanghai authorities urged organisers to postpone or scale down conferences and exhibitions, so as to boost Covid prevention efforts. The Beijing auto show and sports tournaments, such as the Diamond League athletics meet, are among the events in China postponed or cancelled this year due to Covid.

Residents of a Chinese city under COVID-19 lockdown were forced to stay at home during a 6.8-magnitude earthquake, reports say - People in Chengdu, China, were prevented from leaving their buildings during an earthquake, with authorities citing the city's COVID-19 lockdown rules, multiple reports say. The city of Chengdu, where 21 million people live, is under strict COVID-19 rules and was hit by a 6.8-magnitude earthquake on Monday. At least 65 people died from the earthquake, the Associated Press reported. The city's rules mean that most people are confined to their apartment building or residential complex, the AP reported. Some people in the city were told they had to stay inside during the earthquake, and some people who tried to leave their buildings found that the exits were closed due to quarantine rules, the BBC reported.Videos shared on Douyin, China's version of TikTok, showed people shouting to be let out from behind gated doors.None of the earthquake deaths have been linked to people stuck in buildings, the BBC reported.The AP also reported that people wearing protective gear stopped people from getting out of apartment buildings after the earthquake.The Washington Post reported, citing a screenshotted group chat of apartment-building residents, that a building manager in the city had told people to stay in their apartments during the earthquakes.

Global economy slides into contraction, price pressures ease to 1½ year low - Global economic output contracted in August for the first time since June 2020, according to the latest PMI survey data. Although only modest, the downturn reflects an increasingly broad-based deterioration of output and demand conditions both by sector and region. Companies are also taking a more cautious approach to cost control and employment in the face of the worsening economic climate. More encouragingly, price pressures have abated, with the rate of inflation of firms' costs having now cooled for a third month in a row to reach the lowest for one and a half years. The survey data therefore reflect how central banks are hiking interest rates into an economic downturn which, while bearing fruit in terms of helping lower inflation, is adding to the risk of a deepening global contraction and possible recession. Global business activity contracted in August for the first time since the initial pandemic lockdowns of early 2020, according to PMI survey data compiled by S&P Global and sponsored by JPMorgan. The headline PMI, measuring output of both manufacturing and services, fell from 50.8 in July to 49.3 in August, dropping below the 50.0 no change level for the first time since June 2020. If lockdown months are excluded, the latest reading was the lowest since June 2009, during the global financial crisis. Although at present the scale of the downturn remains far weaker than seen during the GFC, August saw output of both manufacturing and services fall into modest declines, reflecting an increasingly broad-based deterioration of global output and demand growth. For the first time since early 2020, all four largest developed economies reported falling output. While the eurozone, UK and Japan all slipped into minor downturns, a steeper contraction was recorded in the US. All four reported lower manufacturing output levels, accompanied by either falling or largely stalled service sectors, with the US reporting by far the steepest service sector decline. Growth trends meanwhile varied among the major emerging markets. While India reported strong and accelerating growth, enjoying one of its fastest expansions seen over the past decade, more moderate gains were seen in Brazil and mainland China, as in both cases robust service sector gains were offset by near-stalled manufacturing economies. In Russia, business activity barely expanded due principally to the impact of sanctions, which drove a further steep downturn in exports of both goods and services. The main cause of deteriorating output trends was a weakening of the demand environment. New orders for manufactured goods fell globally in August, accompanied by a near-stalling of demand for services. Global exports of both goods and services also fell, leading the downturn in demand.

NATO, Russia, Energy Put Balkans on Edge - The news media is suddenly awash with stories of ethnic tensions and Russian “meddling” in the Balkans. Nearly all make the same argument that more NATO and EU support is required to prevent a return to 1990s-style violence.The problem is this is a misreading of history. First off, the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s were in part driven by a NATO desire for expansion. Second, in the decades since the conclusion of the conflicts, NATO and the EU haven’t been able to deliver a sustainable, prosperous peace to the region.Now the West’s confrontation with Russia is only making life more difficult in the Balkans. Economic challenges will be exacerbated due to energy and commodity prices, which could worsen ethnic tensions. Kosovo is already struggling to keep the lights on.“Prospects are really worrisome,” said Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama who predicted that the coming winter will be the worst since World War II. He added that the energy crisis will put a severe strain on the budgets of Balkan countries which will need additional EU support to purchase energy.On top of the economic challenges posed by energy shortages is the fact the Balkan countries –and Bosnia Herzegovina in particular – are caught in between NATO-EU and Russia. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently cited a perceived threat to European security from Russia and said, “NATO is developing a set of measures especially tailored for Bosnia and Herzegovina.”The Russian Embassy in Bosnia complained that the United States and Britain were “preparing the ground for the creeping NATOization of Bosnia.”The most recent member states to join NATO were Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020.That leaves Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo as the Balkan entities yet to join the Washington-led alliance. Serbia has strong ties with Russia and seems unlikely and Kosovo isn’t recognized by all NATO members; that leaves Bosnia as the most likely target, an outcome Moscow would prefer to prevent.Several mass protests have broken out in Sarajevo in the past month after the Office of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt (a German) released plans to impose changes to the nation’s constitution that could amount to a de facto ban on minorities holding political office, while also risk giving power to secessionist-leaning parties. Criticism has come from all sides in Bosnia, but on the outside the proposal has support from the UK and the US.Serbia and Kosovo are dealing with their own tensions over refusal to recognize each other’s identity documents and vehicle license plates. Of course Serbia – as well as Russia, China, Spain, Greece, and others – still don’t recognize Kosovo’s independence from Serbia.The question is will economic pain and meddling by outside forces once again ignite “Europe’s powder keg?” Those two ingredients were what helped fuel the 1990s conflict, and when you see hawkish think tanks like the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggesting that Russia will stoke tensions in the Balkans because its “flawed” campaign in Ukraine, it causes one to wonder.

ECB ramps up scrutiny of banks' response to energy crisis -The European Central Bank is intensifying discussions with bank executives over their readiness for a potential surge in company defaults and a drying up of energy market liquidity amid the worsening standoff over Russian gas supplies. The Frankfurt-based bank watchdog wrote to lenders last month, telling them to analyze the impact of a gas stoppage on their businesses, according to people familiar with the matter. Responses are due in mid-September, and follow-up conversations are to come by the end of this month, said the people, who asked to remain anonymous as the interaction isn't public. Europe's efforts to stave off a full-blown energy crisis were set back this month after Russia moved to cut off supply through its main Nord Steam pipeline to the region in response to sanctions over Ukraine. Banks face increasing losses as the energy crunch escalates, with many lenders' plans to return bumper dividends to investors after multiple lean years potentially cast into doubt. Separately, ECB President Christine Lagarde said Friday that the monetary policy side of the institution stands "ready to provide liquidity to banks, not to energy utility firms," in response to the crisis. "In this current, very volatile environment, it's important that fiscal measures be put in place to provide liquidity to solvent energy-market participants, in particular utility firms," she told a news conference in Prague. An ECB spokesman declined to comment on the supervisory discussions.

Some Brits are threatening to not pay their energy bills with prices surging by 80%— A petition to boycott energy bill payments is gaining traction in the U.K. as the country faces its worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. As of Tuesday, the grassroots Don't Pay movement had racked up more than 170,000 signatories who have pledged to cancel their direct debit payments to energy companies on Oct. 1, when household bills are set to skyrocket. Campaign organizers say supporters will enact their pledge if a total of 1 million signatures are amassed before the October deadline. The government has dubbed the movement irresponsible, warning that it could cost consumers even more money in late payments. The Don't Pay movement did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment. However, in a statement on its website, it said that the campaign is designed to gain temporary "leverage" and encourage government support. It also said that people on prepayment meters should not take part as their power supplies could be cut. Britain's energy regulator Ofgem announced last month that it would raise its main cap on domestic energy bills by 80% from October, taking the average annual household payment to £3,549 ($4,197) from £1,971. It comes as global energy markets come under continued pressure following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resultant supply caps. Consumer rights activists have warned that the surge will leave millions of Britons unable to pay their gas and electricity bills this winter, with the most vulnerable set to be worst affected. The End Fuel Poverty Coalition estimates that this year 12 million households (42%) in Britain will face fuel poverty, broadly defined as the inability to adequately heat or cool their homes. Indeed, in a recent study, the campaign group found that U.K. homeowners will now need to earn a minimum of £62,686 ($72,000) to avoid fuel stress this winter — three times the £20,586 figure for October 2019. "The public is clamoring to be kept warm this winter and we need to see more emergency money for people this winter, funding to help everyone cut their bills with better insulation, and a rapid move away from expensive gas and onto cheaper, renewable energy," a spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said. "Without urgent government action, the impact of rising levels of fuel poverty on our nation will be profound and devastating," UK's Truss to announce relief measures Britain's incoming Prime Minister Liz Truss is now under pressure to announce new energy relief measures — and fast. In the hours following Truss' victory Monday, signatories to the Don't Pay campaign ticked up by around 10,000. The government previously announced a £15 billion package of measures in May, including a £400 discount on all energy bills. However, activists have argued that more support is needed as prices continue to rise. Truss, for her part, has said she will announce new support within a week of taking office, though, until now, she has been scant on details. Reports following her appointment Monday suggest that the measures could be worth up to £100 billion, including freezing the price cap for average households at £1,971. Market analysts say that could go some way to easing bill payments for Britons this winter, while also potentially helping to curb the U.K.'s sky-high 10.1% rate of inflation. "Such a price freeze would make a major difference to inflation," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, wrote in a research note Tuesday, predicting that it could lower inflation by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, he added that any major handouts could see price pressures continue to lift modestly "for a long time thereafter."

Thatcherite warmonger Liz Truss become Britain’s prime minister -The elevation of Liz Truss to the position of prime minister heralds a decisive conflict between the Conservative government and the British working class. Truss has been chosen by 80,000 well-heeled reactionaries among the Tory Party’s ageing 170,000 membership to occupy Britain’s highest office. She is the candidate considered most ruthless in implementing an agenda of war with Russia and China, and class war in the UK. As the Socialist Equality Party explained following the forced resignation of Boris Johnson in July, “The political fear animating a leadership challenge that almost led to the meltdown of the government is that Johnson is such a divisive and discredited figure that he could not be entrusted with the next stage of the ruling class offensive against the working class or with prosecuting NATO’s war in Europe. “The British bourgeoisie is in the throes of a political crisis rooted in a global capitalist breakdown, a still raging pandemic, a worldwide inflationary spiral, trade war, the eruption of war and, above all, the resurgence of the class struggle.” Immediately before Truss’s election was announced, the Daily Telegraph declared that “for the first time since Margaret Thatcher, Britain is about to have a principled, classical liberal, pro-market, well-read, economically literate and policy-driven PM.” She began building this position in the Tory party a decade ago when, as a newly elected MP, she co-authored Britannia Unchained, along with others in the party’s Thatcherite Free Enterprise Group. It decried the UK’s “bloated state, high taxes and excessive regulation,” described British workers as “among the worst idlers in the world,” hailed “economies like Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea” and urged the creation of multiple Free Trade Zones. More recently, on the pandemic, she declared, “No lockdown would happen under my leadership,” and there would be “No mask mandates.” Behind this monstrous personality, a government with no popular mandate to rule is seeking to impose a political agenda dictated by the financial oligarchy that threatens millions with destitution, dictatorial rule, the eruption of world war and nuclear destruction. Truss takes office amid a devastating cost-of-living crisis, with rampant inflation and soaring fuel costs leading to a strike wave encompassing rail, post and telecom workers that threatens to explode into action involving millions more. She is notorious for her warmongering against Russia. This reached a crescendo in August, when she was asked whether she would activate Britain’s Trident nuclear weapons, even though “it would mean global annihilation.” Truss replied without any emotion, “I’m ready to do that.”

New UK Prime Minister Liz Truss vows to ‘get Britain working again’ – New U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss has vowed to “get Britain working again” after being been appointed the nation’s leader by Queen Elizabeth. Predecessor Boris Johnson tendered his resignation at Balmoral Castle in Scotland earlier on Tuesday before Truss, the former foreign secretary, was invited to form a government by the 96-year-old monarch. The audience, known as “kissing hands” — although hands are no longer kissed — was held at Queen Elizabeth’s Aberdeenshire estate rather than at her London residence, Buckingham Palace, because of concerns about her mobility. Truss then flew back to London to deliver an address on the steps of No. 10 Downing Street, the prime minister’s official residence, later Tuesday afternoon.Speaking on live TV Truss insisted she was “determined to deliver” for voters and said she would “get Britain working again.”She insisted Britain could “ride out the storm” of the twin economic and energy crises facing the nation, while acknowledging the “severe global headwinds” she is up against.The new prime minister was speaking just after a torrential downpour had drenched the waiting media and Truss supporters outside No. 10.She promised three early priorities as PM — delivering on the economy, on energy and on the crisis-ridden National Health Service, reiterating her promise of “bold” tax cuts and reform.On the most pressing challenging in her in-tray — spiraling energy bills and the threat to the U.K.’s energy supply — Truss promised “action this week.” A bailout package for households and businesses costing upward of £100 billion is expected as soon as Thursday.After delivering her speech Truss posed outside the famous black door with her husband Hugh O’Leary, before heading into her new residence, followed by her team, who had come out to welcome her. She will shortly start appointing her top team, with her close political ally Kwasi Kwarteng, Johnson’s business secretary, expected to be announced as Truss’ chancellor. It comes after Truss emerged victorious in the long summer Conservative Party leadership contest, which was triggered by Johnson’s resignation following a Cabinet revolt over his handling of a series of scandals. Truss became Conservative leader after beating former Chancellor Rishi Sunak by a margin of 57 to 43 percent in a ballot of party members. In her acceptance speech, she pledged to deliver on a raft of promises made during the campaign, including a suite of tax cuts and help with the soaring cost of energy. “I campaigned as a Conservative and will govern as a Conservative,” she said on Monday.

Liz Truss's cabinet may be first without a White man in high office - Liz Truss, who won a bitter battle to succeed Boris Johnson as British prime minister, is presiding over a historic moment: For the first time, no White man holds one of Britain’s four top seats of political power. Shortly after becoming prime minister on Tuesday, Truss got down to business and appointed her senior leadership team for the roles known as the “The Great Offices of State.” She named Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor of the exchequer, or finance chief, a role that will be pivotal as the country grapples with a cost-of-living crisis. On Tuesday evening, he tweeted that it was “the honour of a lifetime” to be appointed and promised to announce a “package of urgent support to help with energy bills.” Kwarteng, whose parents migrated to Britain from Ghana, is the first Black Briton to hold the role. Truss’s new foreign secretary is James Cleverly, a mixed-race army reservist whose mother hails from Sierra Leone and whose father is from Wiltshire, about 90 miles outside London. He has spoken publicly about being bullied as a mixed-race child and has given talks at Conservative Party conferences about how the party can win the support of Black voters. Cleverly will serve as Britain’s top diplomat at a time of rocky relations between it and the 27-nation E.U. bloc. The new home secretary is Suella Braverman, whose parents came to Britain in the 1960s from Kenya and Mauritius. The diversity of the ministerial appointments won praise from some quarters, in a nation where Conservative Party members — about 0.3 percent of Britain’s population — are generally older, wealthier, 95 percent White and politically further to the right than Britain as a whole. (Nearly 85 percent of people living in England and Wales identify as White, government data shows.) “The new cabinet is another reminder that people from all backgrounds can go far within the Tory party,” Samuel Kasumu, a former race affairs adviser to Johnson, told the Guardian newspaper. Not everyone appeared convinced. A headline in Britain’s right-wing Daily Mail tabloid declared ruefully: “Liz Truss puts finishing touches to diverse new government: No place for white men in great offices of state.” Her predecessor, Johnson, also had a fairly diverse senior ministerial lineup. Home Secretary Priti Patel was the first British member of Parliament of Indian origin to take up that appointment, while the three chancellors during Johnson’s premiership included two men of South Asian origin and one of Kurdish background. Truss was Johnson’s foreign secretary. Some pointed out that although ethnically diverse, Truss’s probable top appointees are in the party’s right wing. Kwarteng had pushed for Britain to quickly leave the European Union, while Braverman has said that schools may be able legally to ignore the preferred pronouns of gender-nonconforming and transgender pupils.