Fed's QT to hit 'full stride' with central bank shrinking $9 trillion portfolio -The Federal Reserve's balance-sheet unwind is set to ramp up this week, which means the central bank will finally begin unloading the Treasury bills it started amassing almost three years ago. As part of its broader plan to reduce its $9 trillion portfolio, the Fed will boost its monthly caps for the amount of Treasuries and holdings of mortgage-backed securities that it will let mature to $60 billion and $35 billion, respectively, while using its $326 billion stash of T-bills as filler when coupons run below the monthly level. September will be the first month that bills will be redeemed since coupons will fall below the monetary authority's new cap. The Fed's portfolio has $43.6 billion of Treasury coupons maturing in September, which means that officials will need to let go of $16.4 billion of bills as well. It will also need to let another $13.6 billion run off in October. These will be the largest declines for the bill portfolio until September 2023. There's been keen interest in the Fed's bill holdings due to the fact that the last time the monetary authority undertook so-called quantitative tightening it didn't own any of the securities. It's also critical for money-market traders who have been struggling to find assets in which to invest. They've largely opted to park excess cash at the reverse repurchase agreement facility, and a full rundown of the Fed's Treasury bills would have provided investors with a jolt of supply. "This is the first time the Fed is allowing bills to run off their balance sheet, three years after they started buying them quickly due to a reserve shortfall," said TD Securities strategist Gennadiy Goldberg. "QT is hitting its full stride." A drop in reserves below the system's comfortable level in September 2019 helped fuel a disruptive spike in repo rates, a keystone of short-term funding markets. As a result, the Fed began buying roughly $60 billion of Treasury bills a month to beef up its reserve balances — in addition to conducting daily repo operations. While the central bank expected to buy bills through the second quarter of 2020, the economic turmoil brought on by the pandemic spurred a wave of fiscal and monetary stimulus, flooding the financial system with cash and ensuring reserves were more than ample. The difference is Treasury has since dialed back the amount of bill supply creating an imbalance where short-term investors are left with very few investment options beyond the Fed's RRP. Bill supply is finally starting to edge higher, thought it's still not enough to satiate the demand. The expectation among Wall Street strategists is that as the path of the Fed's interest rate hikes slows and Treasury continues boosting the amount of T-bills it issues, it will draw those reticent investors away from the haven of the RRP and back into the market.Still, the week-to-week and month-to-month bill holdings will have no bearing on the market supply of bills as the Treasury factored the redemptions into its quarterly borrowing plans, according to Wrightson ICAP. There are longer-term concerns because as the Fed has less securities to lend to dealers in its daily operations, it will impede their ability to cover short positions and make it more expensive to borrow in the repo market.
Fed’s QT: Total Assets Drop by $139 Billion from Peak by Wolf Richter - The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) completed its three-month phase-in period on August 31. During the phase-in of QT, the plan called for the Fed to allow its holdings of Treasury securities to drop by up to $30 billion per month by letting them mature without replacement, and allow its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to drop by up to $17.5 billion per month, mostly from pass-through principal payments.In September, the pace of QT roughly doubles with the caps doubling to $60 billion per month for Treasury securities and to $35 billion for MBS. So how did it go in August?Total assets on the Fed’s weekly balance sheet as of August 31, released on September 1, dropped by $25 billion from the prior week, by $48 billion from the balance sheet of August 3, and by $139 billion from the peak on April 13, to $8.83 trillion, the lowest since January 12.QE created money that the Fed pumped into the financial markets by purchasing securities from its primary dealers, who then sent this money chasing assets in the financial markets and in other markets, including residential and commercial real estate, all of which inflated asset prices, and drove down yields and mortgage rates and other interest rates, which was the express purpose of QE.And in early 2021, QE suddenly helped fuel the raging consumer price inflation that the Fed has now set out to battle with rate hikes and, you guessed it, QT.QT has the opposite effect of QE: It destroys money, pushes up yields, pulls the rug out from under asset price inflation, and contributes to bringing consumer price inflation back down.QT is straight forward with regular Treasury securities, complicated only by the Fed’s holdings of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). But MBS are a different creature, as we’ll see in a moment.Treasury notes and bonds roll off mid-month and at the end of the month, when they mature. Today’s balance sheet includes the roll-off on August 31.TIPS pay inflation compensation (income). But it is not paid like coupon interest. Instead, it is added to the principal value of the TIPS. When TIPS mature, holders receive the amount of original face value plus the accumulated inflation compensation that was added to the principal over the years (similar to your I-Bonds).In August:
- Treasury notes and bonds: down $30.4 billion.
- TIPS Inflation Compensation: up $6.0 billion, earned and added to TIPS principal.
- Net change: -$24 billion from August 3 balance sheet.
This inflation compensation of about $1.5 billion a week is income that the Fed earns that will be paid in cash by the Treasury Dept. when the TIPS mature. The Fed adds this income to the balance of the TIPS weekly. You can see it in the chart below in the slight upward slope in the period after QE had ended in mid-March and through June 6, before QT started. …We’re going to do a deep-dive into the Fed’s transactions of MBS in the To Be Announced (TBA) market that I uploaded to my server and that I will walk you through in a moment. This will without doubt be the most fun you’ve ever had….
Powell’s ‘dangerous’ words risk resistance from lawmakers - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is entering perilous new territory as he warns the American people of coming economic pain from sharply higher interest rates, with signs of political frustration already surfacing. With inflation at more than a four-decade high, Powell and other Fed officials in the past week have torpedoed the hopes of many investors, lawmakers and labor advocates that the central bank will be able to achieve a “soft landing” — a slowdown in growth that curbs spiking prices but avoids a damaging recession. The more pain there is, the more lawmakers are likely to join Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in blasting the central bank, with progressive groups ramping up their criticism, saying the Fed’s actions will potentially lead to millions of job losses. “Jerome Powell’s rhetoric is dangerous, and a Fed-manufactured recession is not inevitable — it’s a policy choice,” Warren told POLITICO. “Some might find this controversial, but higher unemployment should not be the economic policy of the United States, particularly when the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes are ill-suited to address inflated food and energy prices from Putin’s war in Ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks, and corporate price gouging.” The stock market tumbled on concern that higher interest rates will spark a recession after Powell said last week that “some pain” is ahead for the American people. “We must keep at it until the job is done,” Powell said at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A full-blown downturn could end a period of remarkable growth for the labor market over the past year, which has seen the jobless rate fall back to a more than 50-year low and wages grow at a rapid clip — though not enough to keep up with inflation. New government data Friday suggested the workforce is still resilient, adding 315,000 net jobs in August. Unemployment rose to 3.7 percent, from 3.5 percent, but that was because more people came off the sidelines to look for work. Still, even a mild economic slump in the coming months could mean many people will lose their jobs, while others could see incomes freeze or even lower pay, testing the central bank’s resolve.
The Fed Is Openly Cheering The Stock Market Plunge Following Jackson Hole - After actively promoting bubbles in housing and the stock market for years, the Fed is now rooting for a price crash... Bloomberg reports Neel Kashkari ‘Happy’ to See the Stock Market’s Reaction to Jackson Hole: “I was actually happy to see how Chair Powell's Jackson hole speech was received,” Kashkari said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast on Monday, reflecting on the steep drop after Powell spoke. “People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%.” “I certainly was not excited to see the stock market rallying after our last Federal Open Market Committee meeting,” he said. “Because I know how committed we all are to getting inflation down. And I somehow think the markets were misunderstanding that.” “One of the biggest mistakes they made in the 1970s at the Fed is they thought that inflation was on its way down. The economy was weakening. And then they backed off and then inflation flared back up again before they had finally quashed it,” Kashkari said. “We can't repeat that mistake.” The Fed actively promoted a housing bubble to bail out banks following the DoCom crash. Of course, the DotCom bubble was openly embraced by Greenspan as a productivity miracle.Not understanding bubbles and crashes, the Fed promoted the "Everything Bubble" as it is now called in response to the housing crash and great recession. Finally, the Fed actively promoted the biggest bubble of them all in response to the Covid pandemic by the most QE and monetary stimulus ever coupled with the biggest fiscal stimulus in history.Now, the Fed has decided it does not like the inflation it created.The only way it knows how to fix inflation is via demand destruction. The way to do that is to kill the wealth impact from the bubbles it created. So now the Fed is cheering the stock market decline.
The Fed must do two things to re-establish credibility, Allianz's El-Erian says - Although it has now established more consistent messaging to the market, the U.S. Federal Reserve needs to do two more things to re-establish its credibility, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor to Allianz. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell struck a hawkish tone during his speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium last week, reinforcing the central bank's commitment to aggressive monetary policy tightening in order to rein in inflation, and warning that the U.S. economy will face "some pain" in the process. Prior to establishing a firm message in recent months — with inflation running at a 40-year high — Powell and other Fed officials had struggled to guide markets effectively, after accepting fault for inaccurate projections throughout 2021 that inflation would be "transitory." "The more Fed officials repeat it, the more the market is pricing it in, but it's mainly the fixed income markets so far that have priced it in," El-Erian told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum on Friday. "Other markets are hoping somehow that we are in a cyclical moment, not in what I think is more secular and strategic." El-Erian gave the Fed credit for establishing a clear and consistent message, but said it would need to do two more things in order to give its forward guidance credibility from here on out. "One is to explain to the marketplace why it got its analysis so wrong and what has it done about its forecasting abilities," he said. "And secondly, change its framework. Remember, we still have a framework that is for a world of deficient aggregate demand and we're in a world of deficient aggregate supply." El-Erian added that the current framework has been geared toward an environment in which inflation has been "too low for too long" and where it is expected to remain low for a long period of time. He suggested that the central bank needs a new framework entirely. "That was the world before the pandemic. This framework was introduced in 2021, but unfortunately it's backward-looking, so we do need a new framework, and I don't think people quite realize how important the governing framework is," he said.
Fed Whisperer Says Jobs Report "Unlikely To Change" Powell Rate Hike View; BofA, Goldman Call For 50bps - In the aftermath of the first 75bps rate hike in June, which made a mockery of the Fed's forward guidance and which required a WSJ "whisperer" to prep the market for the biggest rate hike in three decades with about 24 hours notice, Nick Timiraos - the new generation's Fed-trial ballooner and a poor man's Jon Hilsenrath, has become a bit of a celebrity in Fed watching circles as everything he says is now viewed as gospel explicitly coming from Powell's mouth. Which is why many were anticipating his NFP post-mortem today, "explaining" how today's jobs report would impact the Fed's thinking. What he said was a nothingburger, echoing our own take from this morning, namely that the Fed is still on pace for 50 or 75bps, and that the CPI report from Sept 13 will be the tiebreaker, to wit: The latest strong employment figures keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates by either 0.5 or 0.75 percentage point at its meeting later this month to combat high inflation. Monthly wage growth eased last month to its slowest pace in six months. Average hourly earnings for private sector workers rose 0.3%, or an annualized rate of 3.8%, in August from July and 5.2% from a year earlier. Friday’s report isn’t likely to significantly change Fed officials’ views about how much to raise the fed-funds rate at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting. A handful of them have indicated they would prefer to lift it by 0.5 percentage point, though they have left the door open to backing a 0.75-point increase. At least one official, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, has said he would favor a third consecutive 0.75-point rate rise. An August inflation report, due on Sept. 13, along with other data on spending and economic activity could further influence the debate over how much to raise rates later this month. Officials have said they want to see evidence that price pressures and economic growth are cooling before they slow their pace of rate rises, but they have signaled they also are paying attention to how their previous increases this year are affecting the economy. The decision over how much to raise rates this month is likely to come down to how quickly Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants to get rates high enough to further slow economic activity. … First, here is BofA chief economy Michael Gapen explaining why he retains a more dovish outlook for Federal Reserve policy (full note available to pro subscribers): In our view, the August employment report contains enough good news for the Fed that will lead them to slow the pace of rate hikes beginning in September. We continue to expect the Fed to raise its policy rate by 50bp in September. Looking further ahead, we maintain our view that the Fed will hike by another 50bp in November and 25bp in December, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate by year end to 3.5-3.75%. And here is Goldman (full note also available to pro subscribers): We continue to expect another 100bp of Fed funds rate increases over the next three meetings: +50bp in September and +25bp in both November and December, with risks skewed towards earlier or larger increases The market has eased expectations to just a 55% chance of a 75bps hike...
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 28th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 4.9% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019 - with some ups and downs, usually related to the timing of holidays. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 25th. Movie ticket sales were at $109 million last week, down about 41% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (a strong year for hotels). This data is through August 20th. The occupancy rate was down 2.8% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022. As of August 19th, gasoline supplied was down 12.4% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.
Will the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Reduce Inflation? - Probably not, but it also will probably not increase it either. This is the judgment of the Congressional Budget Office and also the Penn Wharton Budget Model, as well as libertarian economist Tyler Cowen of George Mason, who is critical of much of its content. It has inflationary and disinflationary elements, and it looks that they about balance out, although in the longer run it is hard to know.The obvious immediate issue is its impact from its aggregate character. So it increases spending on various things, although some of its health parts should lead to lower spending in the future. But it also increases taxes on corporations and through its funding of the IRS should lead to greater tax collections from wealthy individuals. Indeed, it is projected to lower the budget deficit. These elements are clearly offsetting to some extent.In terms of its components, the most important are probably those related to climate. Certainly the subsidies for moving off fossil fuels are inflationary in the short run. But reducing external costs from global warming, as well as encouraging the development of more efficient clean technologies should be disinflationary in the longer run. This is not so clear cut.Then we have the health front. Here it seems to be mostly disinflationary. Besides caps on how much people must pay for certain things, probably the most important item is allowing Medicare to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies over drug prices. This is something that should have been done long ago, especially given how high medical care costs are in the US.I note that while many are pleased with the contents of the IRA, on many fronts it is much more limited than widely known. Thus it subsidizes electric cars only if they are fully produced in the US, this applying to only about 30 percent of them. Also, apparently Medicare can negotiate with drug companies about only 10 drugs. Obviously this law could have gone much further than it does.
White House seeks $47 billion for covid, monkeypox, Ukraine and floods - The Biden administration on Friday asked Congress to approve more than $47 billion in new emergency funds this fall to combat the coronavirus, secure new monkeypox vaccines, bolster Ukraine’s defenses and respond to devastating floods in Kentucky. The official request sets up a fierce fight on Capitol Hill, where warring Democrats and Republicans face a looming, end-of-September deadline by which they must fund the government — or risk a catastrophic shutdown weeks before the midterm elections. Much of the new money the Biden administration seeks would boost the U.S. government’s public health programs. Federal officials long have warned that dwindling funds threaten their ability to respond to a crisis. Targeting the coronavirus, the Biden administration proposed $22.4 billion, much of which would facilitate the purchase and development of next-generation vaccines and treatments. The money also would help restart programs that recently ran out of funds, including an initiative to provide free tests that the White House said it had to wind down this week after months of congressional inaction. “While we have made tremendous progress in our ability to protect against and treat COVID-19, we must stay on our front foot,” said Shalanda Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, in a letter sent to Congress on Friday. “Doing so requires additional resources, which is why today we are updating our previous funding request.” The Biden administration also sought about $4.5 billion to respond to monkeypox, which could help the government purchase and distribute a two-shot inoculation that has been in short supply for months. The lack of availability already has forced the United States to change the way it distributes the vaccine, known as Jynneos, in a bid to arrest the spread of the virus. Besides the new public health funds, the White House urged Congress to approve another $13.7 billion for Ukraine, which includes money for military equipment, intelligence gathering and economic assistance. And top Biden aides estimated they would need about $6.5 billion to respond to recent natural disasters, including the deadly floods in Kentucky and other previously unmet needs in states like Louisiana and California. In each of those areas, the administration described its request as urgent. In Ukraine, for example, Young said in her letter to Congress that three-quarters of the aid lawmakers previously approved for the war-torn country had been “disbursed or committed.” Still, the White House faces the prospect of a tough slog on Capitol Hill. While the two parties long have banded together to bolster Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, Republicans repeatedly have refused to vote for other emergency spending, including funds for public health. GOP lawmakers see new covid aid in particular as wasteful after Congress already approved more than $5 trillion in response to the pandemic. They have insisted Democrats should finance any new package through other budget cuts or transfers — though Republicans have never made such demands about funding for Ukraine. The result has been a months-long stalemate in the Senate, since Democrats need the support of 10 Republicans to avert a filibuster and approve any package.
Russia and the U.S. are entering ‘dangerous and uncharted’ nuclear territory - When President Joe Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met face to face last year, they proudly touted how, “even in periods of tension,”Washington and Moscow could cooperate on nuclear issues.A year and a war later, even such existential-level cooperation appears shaky.Most urgently, ongoing fighting around a Ukrainian nuclear power plant captured by Russian forces has injected fresh uncertainty into a U.S.-Russian nuclear relationship that was already reeling from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent U.S. and European sanctions on Moscow.But the invasion and its fallout have affected an array of other nuclear-related issues, from the Iran nuclear talks to recent international discussions about the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a bedrock pact.Russia and the U.S. also have been tangling over inspections of each side’s nuclear weapons facilities allowed by the New START treaty. There are fears that New START, the last arms control treaty between the two countries, will not get renewed or replaced if tensions between the nuclear powers worsen.Russia and the United States have the two largest nuclear arsenals in the world. Even during the Cold War, Washington and Moscow were able to cooperate on ways to avoid an atomic disaster. Still, the sensitivity of anything nuclear-related means both countries must reassure the world that they can cooperate now, former officials and analysts say.“The United States and Russia, despite their differences, have a special responsibility to avoid nuclear catastrophe,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “I really do think both sides have an interest in continuing arms control treaties. It’s not just PR. The question is can they get over all these other problems and obstacles that Russia’s war has certainly created.”The most immediate concern is the situation at a nuclear power plant in the southern Ukraine area of Zaporizhzhia.Russian forces took over the plant soon after Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, though the facility continues to operate under the watch of Ukrainian staff. Both Moscow and Kyiv have accused the other of endangering the plant in recent days.Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in heavy fighting in the area immediately around the plant, which is being bombarded with airstrikes and artillery, a senior U.S. military official told reporters Monday, adding that Moscow’s forces are using the plant itself to store equipment. The fighting comes as Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive in its south against Russia.The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, is sending inspectors to the plant amid growing worries of potential damage from the fighting. Nuclear power plants have many safeguards, but memories of the 1986 nuclear disaster at Chernobyl, also in Ukraine, hang heavy.
Pentagon Stockpiles "Uncomfortably Low" Amid Ukraine Transfers, Officials Admit - "It is not at the level we would like to go into combat," a US defense official told The Wall Street Journal of the Pentagon's fast depleting stockpiles due to unprecedented defense aid to Ukraine, and stressed in particular that artillery ammunition is now "uncomfortably low".What's more is that the shortfall will likely last into the future, given the norm is for new purchases and then manufacturers supplying the weapons to take a process of years."The U.S. has during the past six months supplied Ukraine with 16 U.S. rocket launchers, known as Himars, thousands of guns, drones, missiles and other equipment. Much of that, including ammunition, has come directly from U.S. inventory, depleting stockpiles intended for unexpected threats, defense officials say," the report spells out.In total so far, the US has pledged to send about $13 billion in arms to Ukraine after only six months of conflict. Given the alarm over Washington's own dwindling stockpiles, the DoD is now opting to send 105mm rounds to Ukraine instead of the 155mm guided 'smart' artillery shells.In early July, a senior US defense official told reporters in a briefing that the Ukrainian army was at that point firing about 3,000 155mm shells per day:The revelation came amid questioning on the latest tranche of weapons and ammunition being sent to Ukraine, including, for the first time 1,000 guided 155mm 'smart' shells.The official said despite the high usage rate, Ukrainian forces still have "substantial stores" of 155mm rounds and are far from running out with more rounds on the way. The U.S. and NATO allies have donated hundreds of thousands of 155mm rounds to Ukraine.But already at this point it seems the Pentagon is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the rate of these 'donations'. The Wall Street Journal report indicated further that the US Army has requested of Congress another $500 million per year to enhance its own ammo factories. It remains that the biggest winner in all of this is the big defense contractors and manufacturers.
White House Alarmed India Joins Russian War Games Simultaneous To Participating In US Exercises - The Joe Biden administration is concerned about Indian involvement in Russia’s massive war games, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Tuesday. Roughly 50,000 troops from several countries will participate in the "Vostok" military games held in far eastern Russia. Responding to a question about Indian involvement in the Russian-hosted exercises, Jean-Pierre said, "So, the United States has concerns about any country exercising with Russia while Russia wages a unprovoked, brutal war against Ukraine." She continued, “But, of course, every participating country will make its own decisions. And I’ll leave it at that.” New Delhi is participating in the Vostok 2022 war games hosted by Moscow from September 1-7. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 50,000 troops and 5,000 weapons units, including 140 aircraft and 60 warships partake in the drills. Soldiers from China, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria, and Tajikistan are also joining the exercises that will stretch into the Sea of Japan. At the same time, India is involved in the Pitch Black 2022 war games. Hosted by Australia, the military exercises include 17 nations, over 100 aircraft and 2,500 soldiers. All four members of the anti-China The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or ‘The Quad’ are engaging in the drills, alongside Washington.While Jean-Pierre expressed concern, the White House stopped short of saying it would take action against New Delhi. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February, President Joe Biden pledged to isolate the Russian economy.However, Washington’s economic war against Moscow has failed as Wall Street analysts are now predicting a more robust Russian economy. The Kremlin has weathered its isolation from the US and many of its Western allies by selling more to Beijing, New Delhi and Ankara. This year, Turkey has doubled its Russian oil imports. To bypass American sanctions, Russian diamond traders have recently adopted the Indian Rupee.
We’re Being Trained To Worry About ‘Russian Propaganda’ While Drowning In US Propaganda – Caitlin Johnstone - One of the weirdest, most insane things happening today is the way the entire western world is being trained to freak out about “Russian propaganda” — which barely exists in the west — while ignoring the fact that we are spending every day marinating in billions of dollars worth of US empire propaganda.CNN has an article out titled “Darya Dugina’s death provides a glimpse into Russia’s vast disinformation machine — and the influential women fronting it” on the recently assassinated daughter of Alexander Dugin, a Russian political thinker of wildly exaggerated influence.The article uses Dugina’s assassination to further stoke its audience’s ever-growing panic about Russian disinformation, quickly becoming a commentary on Russia’s entire propaganda network without bothering to articulate how Dugina’s death “provides a glimpse” into its workings.Without the slightest hint of self-reflection or irony, this CNN article about Russian propaganda cites as its two main experts a think tanker from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab and a think tanker from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The Atlantic Council is a NATO narrative management firm that is funded by NATO, the US government, the UK government, various other US-aligned states, the arms industry, and numerous billionaires. CEPA’s donor list looks similar to the Atlantic Council’s and includes US arms manufacturers and the US government through both the US State Department and the CIA cutout National Endowment for Democracy. Both are used to promote the information interests of the US-centralized power alliance in Europe and North America.As we’ve discussed previously, the way news media cite corrupt warmongering think tanks to discuss foreign policy without ever mentioning their immense conflicts of interests is plainly journalistic malpractice. But this practice is ubiquitous throughout the western news media, the because western news media are propaganda outlets. The article cites RT, the Internet Research Agency, and something called United World International as examples of “Russia’s vast disinformation machine,” despite every one of those institutions having a degree of influence that is the exact opposite of “vast” in the western world. In 2017 RT accounted for all of 0.04 percent of total TV viewership in the UK. A study found that the much-touted US “election interference” campaign by the Internet Research Agency in 2016 consisted mostly of posts that had nothing to do with the election and comprised “approximately 1 out of 23,000 pieces of content” seen on Facebook. I’d be surprised if anyone reading this has ever even heard of United World International, and CNN’s own article acknowledges that before that outlet was banned from western social media its accounts only ever had a few thousand followers.So when I say Russian propaganda barely exists in the west, I mean it is quantifiably a complete non-factor. Compare those paltry numbers to the nonstop barrage of empire propaganda that westerners are fed every day of their lives by every news media outlet of significant influence — whose coverage of the Ukraine war has eclipsed that of all recent wars the US has been directly involved in — and it becomes clear that this message we’re being fed that we all need to panic about Russian propaganda is itself propaganda.
G-7 announces price cap deal on Russian oil in win for Yellen - Finance ministers from the Group of Seven major economies announced an agreement Friday a plan to impose a cap on the price importers pay for Russian oil, in a bid to shrink a key source of revenue the Kremlin uses to finance its war in Ukraine. “We seek to establish a broad coalition in order to maximize effectiveness and urge all countries that still seek to import Russian oil and petroleum products to commit to doing so only at prices at or below the price cap,” the group said in a statement. The agreement, which still faces hurdles before it can be implemented, marks a win for U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a key advocate of the proposal who has helped build global support for the idea. Yellen said the price cap would prove a powerful tool to fight inflation and deliver “a major blow for Russia’s finances.” “By committing to finalize and implement a price cap on Russian oil, today the G-7 took a critical step forward in achieving our dual goals of putting downward pressure on global energy prices while denying [President Vladimir] Putin revenue to fund his brutal war in Ukraine,” she said in a statement. Several elements of the plan remain unclear, however, including how many countries will ultimately sign on, the price at which the cap will be set and how Putin will respond. The goal is to align the price cap’s effective date with new European sanctions set to take effect on Dec. 5 on shipping services for Russian oil exports. Under the agreement, importers that purchase Russian oil below the cap will be exempt from the new restrictions on financing and shipping services, which are largely provided by G-7 countries. That will allow oil to continue flowing while limiting Russia’s revenues, which have climbed in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. Treasury officials are working with their international counterparts to complete legal frameworks for the cap in each jurisdiction, which are expected to be unveiled in mid-October. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has said Russia will refuse to sell to countries that impose a cap, raising doubts about whether the plan The G-7 in its statement committed to working urgently to finalize the measure in each of its jurisdictions and acknowledged that implementation in the European Union will require unanimous agreement among all 27 member states. “The price cap is specifically designed to reduce Russian revenues and Russia´s ability to fund its war of aggression whilst limiting the impact of Russia´s war on global energy prices, particularly for low and middle-income countries, by only permitting service providers to continue to do business related to Russian seaborne oil and petroleum products sold at or below the price cap,” the statement read. Senior Treasury officials confirmed Friday the agreement would include three prices caps — one for crude oil, and two for refined products — that would be set at a particular dollar amount, not as a discount or percent of a benchmark price. Those prices, which are still being determined by the G-7 members, could be revised as needed, one of the senior officials said on a call with reporters. Some in the oil industry have warned the plan is overly complicated and will be difficult to implement, while economic and energy policy experts say it could have unintended consequences and push up the price of oil. Yellen has said the alternative would be worse — if the European sanctions take effect without a price cap exemption, it could lead to a catastrophic supply shock that sends energy prices soaring and triggers a global recession, she has said. U.S. oil prices, which had shot up in the morning to near $90 a barrel after the release of positive economic data, gave back some of the gains after Treasury’s announcement “Russia has aggressively pushed back at G7 proposals to cap oil prices, by saying they will cut off any price cap participants,” That threat could be more salient if OPEC decides to cut its own production at a meeting of the oil producing countries scheduled for Monday,
Biden administration to ask Congress to approve $1.1B arms sale to Taiwan - The Biden administration plans to formally ask Congress to approve an estimated $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan that includes 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the package. The news comes as China continues to send warships and aircraft into the Taiwan Strait on a daily basis, just weeks after Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the self-governing island and condemned Beijing’s attempts to isolate and intimidate Taiwan. In response to Pelosi’s visit, Beijing launched massive, unprecedented military drills around Taiwan that involved shooting missiles over the island for the first time. The package, which is still in an early stage, includes 60 AGM-84L Harpoon Block II missiles for $355 million, 100 AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder tactical air-to-air missiles for $85.6 million, and $655.4 million for a surveillance radar contract extension, the people said. The Sidewinder missiles will arm Taipei’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.Once the Biden administration formalizes the notification, the Democratic chair and ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee will need to sign off on the sale before it can be finalized. The lawmakers are likely to approve the sale, but the process could drag out given the ongoing congressional recess. Representatives for both committees did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Fears have grown in recent years that China is positioning itself to take Taiwan by military force based on its belief that the island is part of China. In response, the U.S. and other Western nations have sought to bolster Taiwan’s defenses and praise its vibrant democracy, in stark contrast to Beijing’s authoritarianism. The U.S. has maintained its adherence to the so-called One China policy outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which stipulates that the U.S. would not establish formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. The TRA also created the “strategic ambiguity” doctrine whereby the U.S. remains purposely noncommittal about whether it would militarily defend Taiwan against an invasion. Lawmakers in both parties have pushed to scrap that policy as Taiwan faces increasingly belligerent threats and intimidation tactics from China’s military.
US warships sail through Taiwan Strait four weeks after Pelosi trip - On Sunday, two US warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait, the first time American war vessels have done so since the visit to Taipei by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on August 2. The voyage of two guided-missile cruisers was confirmed by both US and Taiwan defense officials. The US Navy said the USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville of the Seventh Fleet based in Japan were “conducting a routine transit” and that the cruisers passed through “a corridor in the strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state.” The naval command also said the passage in the Taiwan Strait “demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” and that the US military “flies, sails, and operates anywhere international law allows.” Fully aware that the US military operates anywhere it wants in blatant violation of international law, the Chinese military said that the US had publicly “hyped” the operation. Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command issued a statement which said the warships were being tracked and monitored and that its troops would “stay on high alert,” ready to “thwart any provocation.” Meanwhile, Taiwan reported that eight Chinese military vessels and 23 aircraft were detected in the region Sunday. On Thursday, China announced plans for live-fire military drills on Friday and Saturday off the coast of Fujian, the southeastern province closest to Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait is an approximately 110-mile-wide strait separating the island of Taiwan from continental Asia. At its narrowest point, the strait separates Taiwan from China by 81 miles of ocean in the South China Sea. By comparison, at its closest point, Taiwan is approximately the same distance from China as Cuba is from south Florida. While the US has sailed through the straits in the past, the present provocation takes place amid an intensifying military standoff instigated by Speaker Pelosi’s visit as well as trips to Taiwan by other US congressional figures over the past four weeks. Further inflaming the situation, a five-member delegation led by Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts met with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and other officials, as well as private business representatives on August 16. Then, last Friday, Senator Marsha Blackburn, Republican from Tennessee, also traveled to Taiwan to meet with the President Tsai Ing-wen to push the anti-China agenda of US imperialism. Prior to her arrival, Blackburn tweeted that she would never “kowtow to the Chinese Communist Party,” and hoped her trip would ensure that Taiwan could combat China and the “New Axis of Evil.” With each of these visits combined with the aggressive military moves, the Democrats and Republicans have come together to undermine the One China policy that had been the foundation of US-China relations going back to 1979. At that time, the US ended diplomatic and military ties with Taiwan and, in effect, acknowledged that China included the island of Taiwan.
The US sailed warships through Taiwan Strait for the first time since Pelosi's visit The guided-missile cruisers USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville were conducting a “routine Taiwan Strait transit”, the US 7th fleet said in astatement.“The ships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” it said. “The United States military flies, sails and operates anywhere international law allows.”US warships, and on occasion those from allied nations such as Britain and Canada, have routinely sailed through the strait in recent years, drawing Beijing’s anger.China’s military said on Sunday it was monitoring the US vessels sailing through the Taiwan Strait, maintaining a high alert and ready to defeat any provocations.White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, speaking on CNN on Sunday, said the transit sent a “very clear message, very consistent message ... that the United States Navy, the United States military will sail, fly and operate wherever international law permits us to do so.”Kirby also noted the transit was “very consistent with our One China’ policy, very consistent with our desire to make sure that we can continue to work toward a free and open Indo-Pacific.”China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, launched military drills near the island after Pelosi visited in early August and those exercises have continued. Her trip infuriated Beijing, which saw it as a US attempt to interfere in China’s internal affairs.
After Pelosi’s Visit, Most of the Indo-Pacific Sides With Beijing - Foreign Policy. -U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this month prompted China to conduct unprecedented military drills that included surrounding the island on all sides, firing missiles over it, and taking other highly aggressive steps. Heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait also elicited responses from other nations in the Indo-Pacific that predictably and overwhelmingly upheld Beijing’s “One China” principle—that Taiwan is part of mainland China. Pelosi’s trip made it equally clear, however, that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan’s cause as well, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island, suggesting that Beijing’s assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.At the very forefront of support for Taiwan are Japan and Australia. Along with the United States, they issued a joint statement on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, expressing their “concern about [China’s] recent actions that gravely affect international peace and stability” and urging Beijing “to immediately cease the military exercises.” Their statement also noted “there is no change in the respective [O]ne China policies” of Australia, Japan, and the United States, though this was clearly not the focus. Another important U.S. ally, South Korea, played its cards very differently. Pelosi’s next stop after Taipei was to Seoul, where South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol claimed to be on a staycation and opted for a phone call with her instead—which some interpreted as a snub. There was no official South Korean statement on Taiwan. When asked to comment, a South Korean official from the president’s office urged “close communication with relevant parties” without mentioning China or Taiwan—essentially a non-statement that favors Beijing because it refrains from supporting Taipei.
US ship unable to get Solomon Islands’ permission to dock, says Washington - A United States coast guard vessel was unable to enter Solomon Islands for a routine port call because its government did not respond to a request to refuel and provision, a US official said. The Solomons government did not immediately answer a Reuters request for comment. It has had a tense relationship with the US and its allies since striking a security pact with China in May.The USCGC Oliver Henry was on patrol for illegal fishing in the South Pacific for a regional fisheries agency when it failed to obtain entry to refuel at Honiara, the Solomons’ capital, a US coast guard press officer said in an emailed statement. The vessel was diverted to Papua New Guinea instead, the official said.The British navy declined to comment on social media reports that Solomon Islands port access was also not forthcoming for patrol vessel HMS Spey – also taking part in monitoring for illegal fishing in the economic exclusion zones of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.“Ships’ programmess are under constant review and it is routine practice for them to change,” a Royal Navy spokesperson said in an emailed statement. “For reasons of operational security we do not discuss details.”The Solomons’ government and Beijing have ruled out a Chinese military base on the islands, although a leaked draft showed the security agreement would allow the Chinese navy to dock and replenish.The fisheries agency for the Pacific Islands Forum, a block of 17 Pacific nations, has a maritime surveillance centre in Honiara, and holds annual surveillance operations for illegal fishing with assistance from Australia, the US, New Zealand and France.
US approves $1.1 billion in arms for Taiwan, angering China - The United States on Friday announced a $1.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, vowing to keep boosting the island’s defenses as tensions soar with Beijing, which warned Washington of “counter-measures.” The sale comes a month after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defiantly visited the self-governing democracy, prompting mainland China to launch a show of force that could be a trial run for a future invasion. The package — the largest for Taiwan approved under President Joe Biden’s administration — includes $665 million for contractor support to maintain and upgrade a Raytheon early radar warning system in operation since 2013 that would warn Taiwan about an incoming attack. Taiwan will also spend some $355 million to buy 60 Harpoon Block II missiles which can track and sink incoming vessels if China launches an assault by water. The arms also include $85.6 million for more than 100 Sidewinder missiles, a mainstay of Western militaries for their air-to-air firepower. The announcement comes one day after Taiwanese forces shot down an unidentified commercial drone amid a sudden spate of mysterious incursions that have unnerved the island following the earlier show of force by Beijing, which said it fired ballistic missiles over the capital Taipei. China, calling Taiwan an “inalienable” part of its territory, called on the United States to “immediately revoke” the arms sales. “It sends wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and severely jeopardizes China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” said Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington. “China will resolutely take legitimate and necessary counter-measures in light of the development of the situation,” he said. A spokesperson for the State Department, which approved the sale, said the package was “essential for Taiwan’s security” and stressed that the United States still recognized only Beijing and not Taipei. “We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan,” the spokesperson said. The sales “are routine cases to support Taiwan’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the spokesperson said on condition of anonymity in line with protocol. “The United States will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues, consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people on Taiwan,” he said.
China’s median line violations suggest Taiwan ‘decapitation’ rehearsal - Chinese military aircraft are ramping up pressure on Taiwan with near-daily incursions across the halfway point in the waters between China and the self-governing island.And the White House is watching nervously as Beijing tests Washington’s resolve to defend Taiwan.China has signaled that it has no intention of dialing back its increasingly aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait that it launched in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taipei earlier this month.A spate of recent intrusions, which violate a decades-old tacit agreement between Taiwan and China designed to reduce the risk of conflict between the two sides, mark Beijing’s latest escalation in military intimidation against Taiwan.The now-routine incursions reflect Beijing’s intent to reset benchmarks for acceptable military activity in the Strait. Analysts say it’s not just provocation — it’s a dress rehearsal for an invasion of Taiwan.And the Biden administration has no clear game plan to deter that intimidation. “The median line is a legal fiction, not a negotiated treaty line … we’re painted into a corner because what we consider the status quo was actually Chinese self-restraint, but now that the self-restraint is gone and we can’t send up planes to force them back across the line,” said Michael Auslin, distinguished research fellow in contemporary Asia at the Hoover Institution.
How Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan Gambit Backfired - Beijing’s shock-and-awe military response has created a new normal in East Asia. -History is replete with unintended consequences, few of which mattered much. Not so in the case of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent layover in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. The trip, which garnered rare bipartisan support in Washington, aimed to demonstrate U.S. confidence in Taiwan’s leadership. Instead, the visit and China’s reaction to it left the region reeling, with Beijing apparently more confident than ever that it could retake the self-governed island nation by force if necessary. Simply put, Pelosi’s ill-timed gambit backfired—and badly. Worse yet, its destabilizing effect was entirely predictable and completely preventable, which explains why White House and U.S. Defense Department officials repeatedly requested that she postpone, not cancel, her travel to Taipei. Sure, Pelosi faced political pressure not to back down once her plans became public. But it was always clear that China would exact a high price for her meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, which need not have taken place in Taiwan or coincided with the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to achieve its stated objective. For all her good intentions, picking up the pieces after Pelosi’s tactical misstep will not be easy. Understandably, the Biden administration has downplayed the trip’s significance and reaffirmed its commitment to the United States’ long-standing “One China” policy, which recognizes Beijing as “the sole legal government of China” while ignoring its claims to rule Taiwan. Although “nothing has changed” per se in Washington, the same cannot be said for the Taiwan Strait, where China’s dramatic, expertly orchestrated show of military force was no mere aberration.
Scrubbed launch ratchets up pressure on NASA’s moon mission NASA on Saturday will try again to launch its mega-moon rocket and space capsule for a maiden voyage around the moon, after nearly a week of troubleshooting several glitches with the Space Launch System that scrubbed the initial launch on Monday. The stakes couldn’t be higher. The uncrewed Artemis I mission represents the biggest test for NASA in decades as it perfects a slew of new space systems to return astronauts to the moon by 2025, build a more permanent presence, and do it before China. Even NASA’s top leader signaled on Friday that any more delays could raise the risk that the United States falls behind. But space agency leaders appeared to be managing expectations this week. Besides the engine problem that caused Monday’s postponement, other issues could emerge with the new SLS rocket built by Boeing, or with the Orion space capsule manufactured by Lockheed Martin — anything that could imperil the launch that is now scheduled for Saturday afternoon. Weather at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida could also delay the mission; NASA said it is eyeing a backup launch window on Monday. “There’s no guarantee that we’re going to get off on Saturday, but we’re going to try,” Mike Sarafin, the Artemis mission manager, told reporters on Thursday after NASA determined it had addressed concerns about the engines and signs of a hydrogen leak, which was ultimately attributed to a faulty sensor.
Will Joe Biden’s gamble on big oil pay off in leveling gas prices? --Can Joe Biden push big oil to drill for more oil, lower gas prices andspeed up the switch to electric vehicles? That’s the ambitious aim of a plan the Biden administration is implementing as drivers continue to wrestle with soaring gas prices. Unusually, the plan has support not just from the oil industry but some economists and environmentalists.As 2022’s gas prices set off inflation and oil companies celebrated record profits, Biden practically begged industry executives to take a basic step that could have brought down costs: pump more oil to increase supply. His pleas fell on deaf ears.While critics charge the industry with acting out of greed, oil companies see real risk in pumping more oil. Since 2008, oil oversupplies have repeatedly caused prices to collapse, leaving companies with dwindling profit.In late July, the Biden administration changed tack, moving forward with a risky if innovative plan designed to protect consumers from high gas prices, reduce oil companies’ risk and push the nation toward electric vehicles. The proposal would work by wielding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the federal government’s store of oil, in a way that sets a partial floor and ceiling on oil prices.In short, when demand is weak and prices fall so low that pumping more oil becomes unprofitable, the government would buy at a price that’s high enough to buoy industry’s profits and store barrels in the reserve. When demand is strong and prices climb, the government can intervene by flooding the market with reserve oil, which could help bring down prices.If it works, the plan could be managed to keep gas prices high enough that consumers continue switching to EVs, but not so high that they harm the economy. While many will question the wisdom of a plan to reduce greenhouse gasses by pumping more oil, the idea still has support from a “strange-bedfellows coalition”, said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, a progressive thinktank that has pushed a similar plan.“If you’re using these tools intelligently, it does provide oil producers with some certainty and confidence,” he said. “But it also needs to be thought about holistically … and it should steward the strategic reserve in a climate-conscious way.”
Three House Democrats call for tighter carbon offset standards - Three House Democrats in environmental leadership positions on Tuesday called on the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to strengthen standards for voluntary carbon offsets. In the letter, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee; Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), the chairman of the House Natural Resources Water, Oceans and Wildlife Subcommittee; and Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), the chairwoman of the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, noted that there is no single standard for voluntary carbon offset programs. “We must do all we can to implement meaningful solutions to the climate crisis. As natural climate carbon offsets gain popularity, it is essential we understand (1) the current market environment and (2) gaps in protocols for assessing market quality and credibility in order to provide clarity for market operators and transparency for offset purchasers,” the members wrote. The members requested a full GAO study on federal coordination with offset markets, how the actual determination of carbon reductions is quantified, what federal agencies can do to increase transparency in the market and how to prevent fraud and abuse in the market. Demand has increased recently for carbon offset projects, in which people and institutions reduce carbon emissions elsewhere to compensate for emissions. However, some environmentalists have criticized the process as a form of greenwashing, or marketing that exaggerates environmental friendliness.
Saudi Arabia New Output Cuts Threat Is Another Blow To Washington - Saudi Arabia’s threat last week to lead the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) into a concerted cutting of its collective crude oil production – which would lead to even higher prices over a longer period – marks the end of the U.S.’s and the West’s Middle East dream.This dream, as analysed in my new book on the global oil markets, began in earnest on 26 May 1908 when an oil drilling team led by British geologist, George Reynolds, struck oil at Well No. 1 at the Masjid Sulaiman field in Persia (partly now modern-day Iran). The 28 May 1901 concession for Reynolds’ employer – William Knox D’Arcy – to explore, drill, produce, and export petroleum in Iran (excluding five northern provinces close to Russia) for a period of 60 years, included the provision that Persia was to be given £20,000 in cash, £20,000 in shares from the company that operated the concession, and 16 percent of the profits made by the first or any other company formed by this concessionaire.Shortly after the Masjid Sulaiman discovery, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company was founded, and in 1914, a 51 percent stake in the company was bought by the UK government, and in 1954 it changed its name to the British Petroleum Company.At around the same time, Mohammad Mosaddegh, the highly popular prime minister of Iran, nationalised the UK company’s Iranian infrastructure assets, and renamed the new entity the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). Shortly after this, a military coup organised jointly between the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) and the U.S.’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) codenamed, respectively, ‘Operation Boot’ and ‘Operation Ajax’, removed Mossadegh from power, which enabled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to increase his hold over the country, backed particularly by the U.S. and the UK.A similar tale unravelled in Saudi Arabia, the concession deal for which made Iran’s pre-1951 oil profit share of 16 percent look positively generous. To secure the exclusive rights to explore, drill, produce, and export petroleum across the entirety of Saudi Arabia, the U.S.’s Standard Oil made a single payment of US$275,000 in April 1933 (equivalent to just over US$6 million now) to the Kingdom.For Middle Eastern countries, these facts – to this day – are still well known and inform their view on dealing with the West, which has long been regarded by them as being an occupier of the region simply to exploit its oil and gas resources for as little outlay as possible.The first few signs of widespread and concerted action by Middle East states to counter what they regarded as the West’s stranglehold over their natural resources came with the formation of the United Arab Republic union between Egypt and Syria from 1958 to 1961, the formation of OPEC in 1960, the series of conflicts with neighbouring Israel over the period, and then the 1973/74 Oil Embargo.During this embargo, effectively the first ‘Oil Price War’, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, OPEC members plus Egypt, Syria and Tunisia began to block oil exports to the U.S., the UK, Japan, Canada and the Netherlands. This was in response to the U.S. supplying arms to Israel in the Yom Kippur War that it was fighting against a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. The spiking effect in oil prices was exacerbated by incremental cuts to oil production by OPEC members over the period and by the end of the embargo in March 1974 the price of oil had risen from around US$3 per barrel (pb) to nearly US$11 pb and then it trended higher again.Saudi Arabia’s then-Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani – widely credited with formulating the Embargo strategy – highlighted that it marked: “A fundamental shift in the world balance of power between the developing nations that produced oil and the developed industrial nations that consumed it.”This history and these ideas are precisely where the global oil and gas market is now, and exactly the reason why Saudi Arabia’s current Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said what he did about OPEC being ready to cut crude oil production and, by extension, see oil prices rise higher for longer.
U.S. urges calm as violent protests erupt in Baghdad - Protests in Baghdad over the announcement that Muqtada al-Sadr, a prominent Iraqi Shia cleric, will depart from political life plunged the city into chaos, fueling concerns that clashes may threaten a nearby U.S. embassy compound or American troops stationed in the country. Coming on the one-year anniversary of America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the scenes in Baghdad paint a picture that may be eerily familiar to U.S. officials.But the State Department has so far avoided sounding the alarm over potential danger to Americans in Iraq. Deadly protests in Baghdad’s Green Zone, a heavily fortified area established by the U.S. during its 2003 invasion, have left hundreds injured as Iraqi security forces have deployed tear gas to quell protesters, some of whom have already gained access to Iraq’s Republican Palace, including its swimming pool. American troops have not been involved in the protests, but a video featuring a helicopter forced the State Department to dispel rumors that an evacuation was taking place in Baghdad. The U.S. handed over control of the Green Zone to Iraq in 2009, raising concerns for American embassy officials working in Baghdad. The situation in Baghdad hasn’t prompted the State Department to begin evacuating the American embassy compound, but U.S. officials are urging protesters to remain peaceful. “We urge all those involved, to remain calm, abstain from violence, and pursue peaceful avenues of redress,” said Vedant Patel, a State Department spokesperson in a Tuesday press briefing. “The right to peaceful public protests is a fundamental element of all democracies. But demonstrators need to respect the property and institutions of the Iraqi Government which belong to and serve the Iraqi people.”
US Signs Deal To Give Israel 4 Refueling Planes Needed To Bomb Iran - The Pentagon signed a contract with Boeing on Thursday to supply Israel with four KC-46 refueling planes that are needed for potential Israeli strikes on Iran, although the aircraft won’t be delivered until at least 2025. The deal is worth $927 million, and Israel is purchasing the planes from Boeing with money from the $3.8 billion in military aid it receives from the US each year. Of that amount, Israel receives $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing, a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to purchase US-made military equipment. Israel has the option to order four more KC-46s in the future. The deal has been in the works for a long time, and Israel has previously asked the US if it could accelerate the delivery of the planes, but the US has denied the request. The US military would need to give up its spot in line to receive KC-46s in order for Israel to receive the planes earlier. Israel currently relies on aging tankers for mid-air refueling, which aren’t expected to be capable of supporting attacks on Iran. According to the Times of Israel, Israeli jets would need to travel about 1,200 miles to strike targets in Iran, which would require either the KC-46s or stopping in a Gulf country to refuel. Over the past year, Israel’s military has been focused on making preparations to bomb Iran. Israeli warplanes recently simulated launching large-scale attacks on Iran over the Mediterranean Sea. In the meantime, Israel has stepped up its brazen attacks on Syria, ostensibly to 'counter Iran'...
White House Asks Congress for More Money for COVID, Monkeypox --The Biden administration is asking Congress for $47 billion to fund response efforts for “four critical needs” — COVID-19, monkeypox, natural disaster recovery and Ukraine support, according to ABC News.The White House request is tied to the next government funding bill, which would keep federal operations running after Sept. 30. Biden administration officials said the request would be a bridge through the first quarter of fiscal year 2023, which covers October through December this year.“All of the requests in here meet urgent funding needs,” an administration official told reporters on Friday.“It is our responsibility to tell Congress what we need in order to meet these critical needs,” the official said. “These have had bipartisan support in the past, and we fully expect Congress to work with us to reach a resolution on all of them.”At the same time, parts of the request will likely meet some resistance, ABC News reported. For months, Democrats have pushed for supplemental funding for COVID-19, yet Republicans have been generally opposed to putting more dollars toward emergency response efforts.The largest portion of the funding request would go to public health efforts. The Biden administration is asking for $22.4 billion for COVID-19 tests, vaccines, treatments, and personal protective equipment. Part of the money would go toward “next-generation” research focused on new vaccines and future variants, as well as services for long COVIDtreatment.On Friday, Sept. 2, the federal government suspended its program for Americans to order free, at-home COVID tests. More than 600 million tests have been sent to U.S. households since the beginning of January, ABC News reported. The program will remain paused until new funding is approved or COVID-19 infections surge again. The White House funding request also includes money to address the monkeypox outbreak. The U.S. leads the world in cases, with 19,465 confirmed cases among the 52,000 cases reported globally, according to the latest CDC data. The Biden administration is asking for $3.9 billion for tests, vaccines, treatments, and operational support, as well as $600 million to prevent the global spread of monkeypox.
VA plans to offer abortion services to certain veterans and beneficiaries - The Department of Veterans Affairs plans to offer abortion counseling and some abortions for pregnant veterans and VA beneficiaries, the agency announced Friday. The VA submitted an interim final rule that would enable it to provide abortions when the life or health of a veteran or beneficiary is in peril, or in cases of rape or incest. It would also cover dependents under the agency’s Civilian Health and Medical Program. The agency plans to move quickly, saying that the new services will be authorized immediately upon publication of the interim final rule, after which it will take comments for 30 days. The VA will “provide these services in as many locations as possible,” the agency said in a release. “We came to this decision after listening to VA health care providers and Veterans across the country, who sounded the alarm that abortion restrictions are creating a medical emergency for those we serve,” Shereef Elnahal, under secretary for health at the VA, said in a release. “Offering this care will save Veterans’ health and lives, and there is nothing more important than that.” The context: The move comes after 25 senators in the Democratic caucus pushed the agency to make regulatory changes to enable it to offer abortion care. As it stands, Congress’ Hyde Amendment restricts federal funding of abortions for active military members, and a 1992 law prohibits abortion care for military veterans or retirees. Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Mazie Hirono of Hawaii and Patty Murray of Washington, have argued that the agency has the authority to offer abortion care under the Veterans’ Health Care Eligibility Reform Act of 1996. The move may face potential legal challenges. Republicans have pushed back, saying the VA would violate the 1992 law that bars it from offering abortions if it proceeds with the rule. The VA argued in the rule that the 1992 law doesn’t prevent it from updating the scope of “needed” medical care to include abortions.
Federal Court Strikes Down Biden Administration's Transgender Medical Mandate - A federal appeals court on Friday struck down a Biden administration statute that forced doctors to perform medical procedures, including gender-transition procedures, against their religious beliefs.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit unanimously upheld a lower court’s ruling in Franciscan Alliance v. Becerra which protected around 19,000 health care professionals in Franciscan Alliance, a Catholic health care network, from performing medical procedures against their conscience.The lower court’s ruling had permanently prohibited the U.S. Department of Health and Human Service (HHS) “from requiring Franciscan Alliance to perform gender-transition surgeries or abortions in violation of its sincerely held religious beliefs.”Becket, the legal counsel representing Franciscan Alliance, said the court explained that permanent protection from the statute was appropriate for health care workers.“This ruling is a major victory for conscience rights and compassionate medical care in America,” said Joseph Davis, counsel at Becket, in a statement. “Doctors cannot do their jobs and comply with the Hippocratic Oath if the government requires them to perform harmful, irreversible procedures against their conscience and medical expertise.”The court noted that the Biden administration argued for more chances to show why it needed religious health care providers to participate in gender-transition surgeries, but that the ACLU, a co-appellant, cited a previous case that worked against their argument, according to court documents (pdf).“For years, our clients have provided excellent medical care to all patients who need it,” Davis said. “Today’s ruling ensures that these doctors and hospitals may continue to do this critical work in accordance with their conscience and professional medical judgment.”
Defendants targeted in DeSantis’ voter fraud crackdown were told they could vote - — Several people who were arrested last week as part of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ voter fraud crackdown were notified by official government entities they were eligible to vote, according to court documents and interviews. The defendants told authorities they had no intention of committing voter fraud, according to affidavits, and in some cases were baffled by their arrests because counties had sent them voter registration cards and approved them to vote.The defendants were vilified by the governor during a high profile press conference last week, at which DeSantis announced the arrest of 20 people — convicted murderers and sex offenders — who allegedly cast votes in the 2020 election when they weren’t eligible to. The defendants, because of their convictions, weren’t permitted to vote.DeSantis highlighted their arrests to show his new $1.1 million election security office, created during the 2022 legislative session, was paying off and rooting out bad actors looking to commit voter fraud. Such fraud has become a top tier issue for Republicans across the country, including DeSantis, who has championed a series of election reform bills, including the creation of a first-of-its kind election investigations unit housed under Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody.In the days since the announcement, however, several of those arrested have told media outlets or authorities that they had no idea they were not eligible to vote. In court documents filed in five counties, most say at least one official government body — in most cases a local election supervisor — incorrectly indicated to them they could vote, including allowing them to register and sending them voter cards in the mail.Court records show that many who were swept up by authorities have little education or financial resources and are now back in the state’s criminal justice system. Florida Department of Law Enforcement special agents interviewed the defendants over a few days in early August before arresting them last Thursday.Peter Washington, a 59-year-old Black man from Orlando, who served 10 years in prison related to sexual battery conviction, told a Florida Department of Law Enforcement special agent that prison officials informed him he could vote. At the time, he was taking classes to transition back into society as his release date from prison approached. He received no indication from the Orange County Supervisor of Elections office that he was not eligible to vote.“Washington received a voter registration form in the mail, filled it out and mailed it back to the Orange County Supervisor of Elections Office,” read an affidavit filed by authorities in Orange County court. “The Orange County Supervisor of Elections mailed him a voter card.”
Attorney connected to Oath Keepers charged with obstructing Jan. 6 session of Congress - Kellye SoRelle, an attorney connected to the far-right extremist Oath Keepers, has been arrested and charged as part of a conspiracy to obstruct the Jan. 6, 2021 session of Congress, the Justice Department revealed Thursday. SoRelle — a ubiquitous social media presence who despite her presence at the Jan. 6 riot had formed an unlikely rapport with the “sedition hunters” who help authorities identify perpetrators of the attack on the Capitol — was also featured by the Jan. 6 select committee during a July hearing on extremism. SoRelle faces three felony charges: conspiracy to obstruct the Jan. 6 session of Congress, obstruction of an official proceeding and obstruction of justice for document tampering. Prosecutors say she persuaded associates to destroy or conceal records related to the attack on the Capitol. She also faces a misdemeanor charge for trespassing on the restricted grounds of the Capitol on Jan. 6. The U.S. Attorney’s office in Washington, D.C. said SoRelle, 43, was arrested in Junction, Texas, early Thursday and will make an appearance in the federal courthouse in Austin later in the day. SoRelle has been seen in footage from Jan. 6 alongside Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes outside the Capitol. Rhodes and several other members of the group are facing seditious conspiracy charges for their involvement in the breach of the building. Three members of the group have pleaded guilty to that charge, while others are slated to face trial later this month. SoRelle was also present at a meeting between Rhodes and Proud Boys chair Enrique Tarrio in a Washington, D.C. parking garage on Jan. 5, 2021, an encounter that has become a focus for prosecutors and the select committee.
Trump Mar–a-Lago affidavit reveals ‘handwritten notes,’ highly classified material led to warrant request - Federal investigators obtained a search warrant for former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate earlier this month by pointing to a raft of highly classified material they’d already obtained from there, according to a legal affidavit unsealed Friday. Records the FBI obtained from Trump’s Florida home in advance of the Aug. 8 search bore indications they contained human source intelligence, intercepts under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and signals intelligence, as well as other tags indicating high sensitivity. Several of those tightly-controlled documents contained Trump’s “handwritten notes,” the partially-redacted affidavit detailing the Justice Department investigation says. In those boxes, agents found 184 unique documents, 25 of which were marked “top secret,” 92 of which were marked “secret,” and 67 of which were marked “confidential”–the lowest level of national security classification. According to the affidavit, NARA officials found some of those “highly classified records were unfoldered, intermixed with other records, and otherwise unproperly [sic] identified.” Prosecutors also added in another court filing unsealed Friday that the ongoing criminal probe into government records stashed at Trump’s Florida home has involved “a significant number of civilian witnesses” whose safety could be jeopardized if their identities were revealed. The partial release of the heavily-redacted affidavit and related court documents is the latest development in a fast-moving legal saga that poses an acute threat to the former president. Experts say it is unprecedented in nature. One classified information expert who oversaw such issues across the government said Friday that the scenario laid out was extraordinary and suggested that significant national secrets are at stake. “To my knowledge, this has never become an issue. Most former presidents have played this pretty straight and narrow,” said William Leonard, who headed up the National Archives’ Information Security and Oversight Office. “If it was just the infamous personal note from the North Korean leader to Trump and he refused to part with that, that’s something that obviously could be handled administratively… But I have to think in this instance the information was so sensitive and the potential damage to national security could be so significant that the government felt they had no other choice other than to proceed down this route.” The court filings unsealed Friday revealed that the magistrate judge who issued the warrant for the search of Trump’s residence received legal arguments from Trump’s attorneys before doing so. Those arguments came in the form of a three-page, May 25 letter from Trump lawyer Evan Corcoran. In the letter, Corcoran sought to discourage the Justice Department from proceeding with a criminal investigation or potential criminal charges over the presence of classified records at Mar-a-Lago.
Justice Dept. says Trump team may have hidden, moved classified papers - Former president Donald Trump and his advisers repeatedly failed to turn over highly classified government documents even after receiving a subpoena and pledging that a “diligent search” had been conducted, leading to an FBI raid of his Florida home that found more than 100 additional classified items, according to a blistering court filing by federal prosecutors.The filing submitted shortly before midnight Tuesday traces repeated efforts by government officials to recover sensitive national security papers from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and club. Their quest centered on a storage room where prosecutors came to suspect that “government records were likely concealed and removed … and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation.”The agents also came to doubt claims by Trump’s team that the storage room was the only place where such documents might be found.When agents conducted their court-ordered search on Aug. 8, they found material so sensitive that “even the FBI counterintelligence personnel and DOJ attorneys conducting the review required additional clearances before they were permitted to review certain documents,” the filing says.On August 26, 2022, a redacted version of the affidavit supporting the request to search former president Trump’s Florida residence was released. (Video: Michael Cadenhead/The Washington Post)Among the most potentially incriminating details in the government filing is a photograph, showing a number of files labeled “Top Secret” with bright red or yellow cover sheets, spread out over a carpet. Those files were found inside a container in Trump’s office, according to the court filing. A close examination of one of the cover sheets in the photo shows a marking for “HCS,” a government abbreviation for systems used to protect intelligence gathered from secret human sources.The 36-page filing also reveals, for the first time, the text of a written assurance given to the Justice Department by Trump’s “custodian of records” on June 3. It says Trump’s team had done a thorough search for any classified material in response to a subpoena and had turned over any relevant documents.Trump and his representatives gave the Justice Department 38 classified documents that day, the filing says, in addition to 184 others that were discovered in boxes sent to the National Archives earlier in the year.The filing says Trump’s lawyer told Justice Department officials that all White House records that remained at Mar-a-Lago nearly 17 months after Trump left office were contained in the storage room, and that all boxes in the room had been searched. Yet when FBI agents raided the Trump property in August, they found more than 100 additional classified papers, a discovery that “calls into serious question the representations made in the June 3 certification and casts doubt on the extent of cooperation in this matter,” prosecutors wrote. The filing offers the most detailed account to date of the interactions between Trump’s team and government officials, who over the course of many months became increasingly desperate to find and contain all of the classified material stashed at Mar-a-Lago.
The photo of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, annotated - The Washington Post -Perhaps the most intriguing component of the court filing submitted Tuesday night by the Justice Department did not involve legal argumentation or an articulation of the department’s possible case against former president Donald Trump. Instead, it was a photograph showing documents arrayed on the floor of an unidentified room. Clearly visible on more than a half-dozen of the papers: classification markings. The government’s months-long effort to recover documents that were kept at Trump’s Florida residence after he left the White House doesn’t depend on that material being classified. But the question of whether Trump had classified material with him at his Mar-a-Lago resort has captured the public’s attention. The photo published by the government appears to answer that question quite affirmatively. There is detail in the photograph that bears closer examination, detail not immediately apparent to the casual observer. Below, we’ve picked out some of those details, exploring what they show — and what further questions they raise. An immediate question is where, exactly, the photo was taken. In its filing, the Justice Department orients the photo — the filing’s Attachment F — as follows: “Certain of the documents had colored cover sheets indicating their classification status. See, e.g., Attachment F (redacted FBI photograph of certain documents and classified cover sheets recovered from a container in the ‘45 office’).” The material shown, then, is from Trump’s personal office at Mar-a-Lago, but the photograph itself doesn’t appear to have been taken there. Consider the detail in the lower left of the photo. We see three distinguishing elements: a busy carpet pattern, some sort of dark-blue, fringed fabric — perhaps a curtain — and white cupboards with a relief pattern. (Update: This appears to be a stylized filing cabinet.)There are various photo galleries of Mar-a-Lago online (see the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s, for example), but there’s no obvious match for the elements shown in the photo. A picture of Trump’s office, tweeted by his former aide Stephen Miller last year, shows a very different aesthetic from the one in Attachment F.The carpet certainly has the stain-hiding aesthetic common to hotels or event spaces such as Mar-a-Lago, but it’s not immediately clear where the picture was actually taken. (If you have insight into the photo’s location, let us know.)Update: The Washington Post’s Aaron Schaffer notes that the carpet appears to match the one seen in photos shared by people who’d met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, including Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R) and Kyle Rittenhouse. Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara also confirmed the carpet as being from Mar-a-Lago in an interview, as a reader pointed out. There is another good indicator that it was at Mar-a-Lago: In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday morning, Trump suggested that it was. There is, of course, no indication that the FBI was trying to suggest that Trump had created a mess. Instead, investigators were doing what investigators do: documenting what they’d found.
Trump team likely sought to conceal classified docs at Mar-a-Lago, DOJ tells judge - Prosecutors obtained a search warrant for former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate after receiving evidence that there was “likely” an effort to conceal classified documents there in defiance of a grand jury subpoena, a new Justice Department court filing released Tuesday night said. The 36-page filing was the department’s most detailed account yet of its evidence of obstruction of justice, raising concerns that Trump and his attorneys sought to mislead investigators about the sincerity and thoroughness of their effort to identify and return highly sensitive records to the government. “The government also developed evidence that government records were likely concealed and removed from the Storage Room and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation,” Justice Department counterintelligence chief Jay Bratt wrote. “That the FBI, in a matter of hours, recovered twice as many documents with classification markings as the ‘diligent search’ that the former President’s counsel and other representatives had weeks to perform calls into serious question the representations made in the June 3 certification and casts doubt on the extent of cooperation in this matter,” he added. The much-anticipated court filing includes a startling redacted photo of some of the apparently classified files recovered from the so-called “45 Office” at Mar-a-Lago, spread across a carpet. Numerous brightly colored cover sheets for classified information are visible bearing markings of “Top Secret,” “Secret” and “Sensitive Compartmented Information.” The contents of the documents, and even some of the classified headers, were whited out, leaving just a handful of dates visible. At least three of the documents bearing classification markings are on White House letterhead. A box of framed items, including a 2019 Time magazine cover depicting the then-Democratic presidential field vying to defeat Trump, sits nearby. DOJ indicated that the “commingling” of Trump’s personal effects with classified materials is “relevant evidence of the statutory offenses under investigation.” Three classified documents were found in a “desk drawer,” prosecutors said, without providing further details. Trump’s claims that the items should be returned to him have no merit, they added. “Any Presidential records seized pursuant to the search warrant belong to the United States, not to the former President,” Bratt argued. The submission to a federal judge in Florida opposes Trump’s request for an independent third party to review the records the FBI seized during their Aug. 8 raid on the former president’s Florida compound. DOJ urged U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon to oppose Trump’s request for a so-called “special master,” contending that his belated request was merely a bid to disrupt the investigation.
Takeaways from the Department of Justice's latest filing about Mar-a-Lago - In the ongoing legal battle about whether the government can keep the material FBI agents recovered from Mar-a-Lago this month, the government has now alleged that legal representatives of former president Donald Trump hid boxes of material and may have even given federal agents false information about handing it all over, according toan extraordinary late-night court filing Tuesday. Here are three takeaways from this latest revelation.
- 1. Prosecutors may focus on whether obstruction was committed. Trump’s lawyers may have given false information to the FBI, prevented agents from fully searching the property this summer and then hidden documents that remained at Mar-a-Lago when the FBI left, according to this filing. “Records were likely concealed and removed,” prosecutors wrote, and “efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation.” The FBI started investigating in May, and armed with a subpoena, agents went to Mar-a-Lago and met with Trump’s lawyers. They recovered 38 documents marked classified, prosecutors said, and a Trump representative acting as custodian of records signed a statement certifying that all material with classification markings had been returned to the government. That turned out to be wrong. The FBI kept investigating and it found evidence, according to this new filing, that boxes had been moved before the prosecutors said they did a search for classified material. Agents feared that some of the government’s top secrets were still in Trump’s possession, possibly nuclear secrets, The Washington Post has reported. Agents obtained a search warrant and recovered more than 100 classified documents, including some so secret that, according to the filing, “even the FBI counterintelligence personnel and DOJ attorneys conducting the review required additional clearances before they were permitted to review certain documents.”
- 2. There’s still no evidence Trump declassified any of this before he took it. Trump’s defense has always been flimsy: that he declassified the documents before taking them to Mar-a-Lago. This filing further punches a hole in that, with prosecutors pointing out that Trump’s lawyers have never argued that in court or in conversation or correspondence with the Justice Department about the documents. It’s true that presidents have broad declassification powers, but not for everything, and there’s a process and paperwork that needs to happen to declassify something. There’s also no evidence of such paperwork, least of all for potentially hundreds of classified documents. In addition, former presidents don’t have that power. That’s an astonishing amount of classified material, legal experts said. In comparison, when then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was investigated for improper handling of classified informationas secretary of state, she had 113 emails containing classified information — far less material than Trump is accused of hoarding at Mar-a-Lago.
- 3. We still don’t know why Trump took — and apparently insisted on keeping — these documents. This is one of the biggest mysteries of this whole saga. The Post’s Josh Dawsey, Carol D. Leonnig, Jacqueline Alemany and Rosalind S. Helderman have reported that for the past year, Trump resisted handing much of anything over to the government, to the point where his allies feared he was “essentially daring” the FBI to come after them. “These are the types of documents that would make most of us quiver to hold,” Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney, told me this month, “let alone retain unlawfully.”
Bill Barr: The facts show the Feds were being ‘jerked around’ by Trump - Former attorney general Bill Barr on Friday said the facts surrounding the FBI search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence are beginning to show that the Department of Justice was being “jerked around” by the former president as the Feds sought to obtain classified government records. Barr spoke directly to Republican outcries about the nature of the “unprecedented” search of a former president, offering a counterpoint: “It’s also unprecedented for a president to take all this classified information and put them in a country club.” “And how long is the government going to try to get that back? They jaw bone for a year. They were deceived on the voluntary actions taken. They then went and got a subpoena. They were deceived on that, they feel, and the facts are starting to show that they were being jerked around. And so how long, you know, how long do they wait?” Barr said in an interview on Fox News. Christopher Kise, one of two Trump attorneys handling the arguments for an independent review, told POLITICO that the appointment of a special master is “not at all” a ”waste of time.” An independent review of the material could ”give the American people greater confidence in the integrity of the process,” Kise said. Barr’s bluntness in talking about the former president isn’t new. He’s been an open critic of Trump, and his testimony — dismissing the former president’s lies about the 2020 election — was featured heavily in the Jan. 6 select committee’s early hearings. But his scathing comments on Friday, bolstered by his expertise as the former attorney general, come as more details surface about the nature of the recovered records. Friday’s unsealed court filing showed that documents with highly classified markings were mixed in boxes with items like books and clothing. The FBI also recovered 48 empty folders with “classified” banners. Barr’s remarks also come after a federal judge in West Palm Beach, Fla., heard arguments from the DOJ and Trump’s legal team about potential limitations on the department’s access to the documents obtained in the Mar-a-Lago search. U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon ordered the list to be released as she mulls a decision on whether to fulfill Trump legal team’s request for a so-called special master to review the seized government records for any that could fall under executive privilege. Barr called the “whole idea of a special master a bit of a red herring” and a “waste of time.” He said the only documents his legal team may want to insulate the government from are those related to his “private lawyer communications, him as an individual and his outside lawyers.” He added that there doesn’t “appear to be much of this material.” “What people are missing — all the other documents taken, even if they claim to be executive privilege, either belong to the government because they are government records. Even if they are classified, even if they are subject to executive privilege, they still belong to the government and go to the archives. And any other documents that were seized, like news clippings and other things in the boxes containing the classified information, those were seizeable under the warrant because they show the conditions under which the classified information was being held.”
Garland’s perilous path to prosecuting Trump - Attorney General Merrick Garland has a mantra when it comes to politically charged investigations: “We will follow the facts and the law, wherever they lead.” But Garland’s mantra won’t get him the answers he wants in the gargantuan decision of whether to prosecute former President Donald Trump over the trove of government documents — many of them marked as highly classified — that he took to Mar-a-Lago on his way out of the White House. Political fallout, precedent and national security risk are just some of the intangibles Garland will have to consider as he considers what would potentially be the highest-profile criminal case in American history, according to former prosecutors, intelligence agency lawyers and Justice Department officials. One consideration for Garland is how Trump’s alleged actions stack up against other cases DOJ has brought or not brought over mishandling classified information. A second factor is how confident prosecutors are they could win at trial — knowing the political fallout of a losing case against a former president could be devastating. And finally, Garland has to consider the damage that a trial might have on national security secrets, given the nature of the Mar-a-Lago document seizures. Of course, one unknown ultimately looms large over all the other machinations: Does Garland view Trump’s cavalier and even defiant approach to the national security secrets at Mar-a-Lago as something of sufficient magnitude to bring the first criminal case against a former president in U.S. history? “They’re going to have to be satisfied that they’re going to have a very, very strong case to present to a grand jury and ultimately to a jury,” said former CIA general counsel Jeffrey Smith. “If the prosecutors can get over all those hurdles, given that it’s a former president, it will be a tough call for the attorney general.” “It seems to me it’s moving in the direction of warranting criminal charges,” said David Laufman, former chief of the counterespionage section at the Justice Department’s National Security Division. “I think [Trump] has significant criminal exposure. Whether they ultimately decide to exercise prosecutorial discretion in favor of prosecuting him is another question.”
There Will Be 'Riots In The Streets' If Trump Is Prosecuted: Lindsey Graham - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) says there will "literally be riots in the street" if former President Donald Trump is prosecuted in the wake of the Aug. 8 raid of his Mar-a-Lago compound."Most Republicans — including me — believe when it comes to Trump, there is no law. It’s all about getting him," Graham told Fox News' "Sunday Night in America." "There is a double standard when it comes to Trump," he continued, invoking the lack of a raid, or prosecution, when it came to obvious lawbreaking by Hunter Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton."And I’ll say this, if there is a prosecution of Donald Trump for mishandling classified information after the Clinton debacle … there will be riots in the streets," he told host and former Congressman Trey Gowdy, adding that he's "never been more worried about the law in politics as I am right now.""How can you tell a conservative Republican that the system works when it comes to Trump?" Graham asked, noting that the DOJ's sham probe into the Russiagate hoax was a "joke of an investigation" in which "people lied and manipulated the evidence.""Look at what happened to Hunter Biden. They gave him a complete pass, apparently. And social media outlets in this country suppressed information that could have mattered," Graham continued, according to the Fox News."And if they try to prosecute President Trump for mishandling classified information after Hillary Clinton set up a server in her basement — there literally will be riots in the street."Watch:
‘Where the hell are we?’: Biden slams Republicans for encouraging political violence - President Joe Biden on Tuesday lambasted members of the Republican Party for encouraging political violence — including apparently South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. “No one expects politics to be patty cake. Hey, sometimes it gets mean as hell. But the idea you turn on a television and see senior senators and congressmen saying, ‘If such and such happens, there’ll be blood in the street.’ Where the hell are we?” Biden said. The president was speaking at the Marts Center at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., not far from his birthplace of Scranton, where he detailed his $37 billion “Safer America Plan,” aimed at addressing community safety and crime prevention. Toward the end of his campaign-style, fiery speech, Biden bristled as he talked about members of the Republican Party encouraging political violence. His reference to senior senators on television appeared to be a swipe at Graham, who over the weekend twice said there would be “riots in the street” if the Justice Department prosecutes former President Donald Trump for his handling of classified government documents after leaving the White House. “A safer America requires all of us to uphold the rule of law. Not the rule of any one party or any one person,” the president said, telling the crowd that some members of the Republican Party have said political violence is necessary. “[Political violence] is never appropriate. Period. Never. Never. Never.” The president then turned to the attack on the Capitol. Bringing his speech full circle, he talked about the police officers who lost their lives in connection with the Jan. 6 riot. “Let me say this to my MAGA Republican friend in Congress. Don’t tell me you support law enforcement if you won’t condemn what happened on [Jan. 6]. Don’t tell me. Can’t do it. For God’s sake, whose side are you on? Whose side are you on?” Biden said, raising his voice. “Look, you’re either on the side of the mob or the side of the police. You can’t be pro-law enforcement and pro-insurrection. You can’t be a party of law and order and call the people who attack the police on Jan. 6 patriots.”
‘There’s enormous frustration’: Trump forces Republicans off-script… again - The investigation into Donald Trump’s handling of classified national security records is forcing Republicans into a strained defense during a pre-midterm sprint in which they’d much rather be talking about Joe Biden. After having decried the FBI’s search of the ex-president’s home, many Trump defenders went silent upon the release on Friday of the probable-cause affidavit that revealed the extent of Trump’s efforts to hold onto the top-secret documents. GOP worries about the developments of the case and Trump announcing a 2024 run before November are giving way to a subtle, broader warning about putting the former president too much on the ballot this fall. “Republicans should focus on defeating Democrats, and every Democrat should have the word Biden in front of their name,” said Trump ally and former Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich. “The Republican focus should be to win the election in November. Trump will do a fine job defending himself. He’ll be fine.” Some top Republicans acknowledge the growing angst and concern, as it’s become clearer that Trump may have been warehousing some of America’s most sensitive secrets in an unsecured basement — and even refused to turn them over when the National Archives and Justice Department tried to recover them. One top Republican fundraiser asked to describe the mood among donors, said, “There is enormous frustration.” “The question is, is there willingness to express that frustration,” the fundraiser added. “I don’t know the answer to that. But there is real frustration, and with the exception of people who are too stupid to understand the need to be frustrated, it is nearly universal.” Strained defenses and private frustrations are familiar emotions for some Republicans during the Trump era. But the stakes are particularly high this fall, with projections of a red wave in the House getting dimmed to a smaller GOP majority and as Sen. Chuck Schumer appears potentially poised to remain in control of the Senate.
Democrats Are Violent Extremists – Caitlin Johnstone -- Republicans are up in arms over remarks from the White House depicting the Trump-aligned faction of their party as “extremist”, which Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre defended Thursday by saying that MAGA Republicans are extremist because they disagree with the majority of Americans.“When you are not with what majority of Americans are, then you know, that is extreme; that is an extreme way of thinking,” Jean-Pierre said.Every part of this controversy is hilarious, from Republicans thinking they are not extremists, to anyone thinking that MAGA Republicans are meaningfully different from generic brand Republicans, to Democrats thinking they are any less extremist than MAGA Republicans, to Jean-Pierre claiming that you are extremist if you don’t agree with mainstream political consensus in the United States.If you look at who is inflicting the most violence, terrorism and tyranny upon the largest number of people in our world, it’s clear from the numbers that the worst offender by far is not fringe neo-Nazi groups, nor violent jihadists, nor communists nor anarchists nor environmentalists nor incels, but the bipartisan political consensus of the US-centralized empire.No other power has spent the 21st century killing people by the millions in wars of aggression. No other power is circling the planet with hundreds of military bases and working continuously to destroy any government which disobeys it. No other power is starving entire populations with economic sanctions, military blockades and brazen theft. No other power has been interfering in foreign elections anywhere near as often. No other power is terrorizing populations around the world with wars, covert ops, drone strikes, proxy conflicts, and staged coups and uprisings. No other power is using its military, economic, diplomatic and media dominance to bully the world into serving its interests.The only reason the mainstream views espoused by Democrats and Republicans are mainstream is because massive amounts of narrative management have gone into creating that consensus. The fact that the social engineers of the oligarchic empire have poured vast fortunes into making sure Americans consent to capitalism, corruption, militarism and murder is the only reason those perspectives are so mainstream that they can be labeled “moderate” or “centrist”. When people hear the word “extremist” they tend to think of groups like ISIS or the Ku Klux Klan, but per definition an extremist is just someone whose political or religious beliefs can lead them to do violent or illegal things. The US empire would crumble if it didn’t do violent and illegal things continuously, which is why its body count dwarfs those of any of the extremist ideologies the news media tell us to worry about. And it is fully supported by both Republicans and Democrats.
Fed terminates HSBC's anti-money-laundering order - The Federal Reserve has terminated a 2012 enforcement action with HSBC Holdings in which the London-based bank had admitted that it willfully violated its anti-money-laundering obligations. The Fed's action marks a key milestone in a long-running saga that has sullied the global bank's reputation. HSBC's lax controls enabled drug cartels to move hundreds of millions of dollars through the bank's Mexican banking subsidiary and into the United States, and they also allowed money to be moved through the U.S. financial system by banks in Cuba, Iran, Libya and other sanctioned nations. The Fed said in a press release Thursday that it lifted the cease-and-desist order on Aug. 26, but it did not provide further comment. An HSBC spokesperson said the company is pleased with the Fed's decision to terminate the order and remains committed to combating financial crime. "Over the last decade HSBC's employees have worked hard to transform the bank's financial crime risk management capabilities," the company said in a statement. The Fed's order was part of a barrage of U.S. government actions against the bank in December 2012. At the time, HSBC entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice and agreed to pay a total of $1.92 billion in fines to U.S. authorities, including a $1.26 billion forfeiture to the Justice Department. The bank also agreed to pay $500 million to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and $165 million to the Fed. A cease-and-desist order that HSBC reached with the OCC was terminated in June 2018.
As Fed goes full steam ahead on higher interest rates, banks brace for new normal --The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is as high as it has been in a decade and is unlikely to go any lower in the foreseeable future, Chair Jerome Powell said Friday. But just how this new reality will affect banks individually depends in large part on what's in their loan books.During a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said he expects the rate to be just under 4% by the end of next year, a mark not seen since the beginning of 2008. He added that the Fed will not reverse course on rates until inflation has been placed firmly in check."Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time," he said. "The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy."Powell's speech comes on the heels of the first signs that inflation may be easing. Inflation data from July indicate that consumer prices remained flat when factoring out volatile food and energy prices. The rhetoric reaffirms the Fed's stance that the nearly 15-year-long era of accommodative monetary policy is coming to an end. Chris Maher, chairman and chief executive of OceanFirst Bank in Toms River, New Jersey, said the paradigm shift is needed."Ultralow rates are not normal and shouldn't exist, other than in points of extreme crisis," Maher said. "Whether rates go up a little bit, down a little bit or hold flat, we should not be returning to that zero rate scenario. We're going into a period that can be probably a lot more normal than what we've experienced."Maher said higher rates, at face value, should boost bank activity in the near term. When the Fed's funds rate is at its lower bound, as it was from March 2020 to March 2022, banks can borrow from the Fed at virtually no cost, giving them no incentive to take on risk by making loans. "Commercial banks have this natural arbitrage between the deposits they bring in and the high quality assets and loans they put in their books," Maher said. "In a zero-rate world, there's no value to them, because you can borrow money at zero, so why do you need deposits and where's the big value add? Whatever the neutral rate is … you're going to have a more traditional slope and level to the yield curve."
Fed's Brainard says FedNow launching in 2023, and banks need to get ready -Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard told a group of early adopters of the central bank's real-time payments system, known as FedNow, that the system should be operational between May and July of 2023.Speaking via webcast Monday, Brainard said that the pilot phase of the system will start in September and that how rapidly ordinary customers realize the benefits will depend in large part on how quickly banks update their payments technologies to adapt to the new system."We have been working hard to deliver on time, but ultimately the number of American businesses and households that are able to access instant payments will depend on financial services providers making the necessary investments to upgrade our payments infrastructure," Brainard said. "Together, we can ensure that all Americans have access to a modern and reliable instant payment system."The Fed deliberated for years about whether to create its own payments system, with some bankers and ex-Fed officials urging the central bank to create a competitive environment in payments, while others argued that the broader adoption of The Clearing House's Real Time Payments, or RTP, network would solve the problem more rapidly and at lower cost. The Fed announced in 2019 that it would develop its own real-time payment settlement system in 2019, estimating that the project would be in place by 2024. The network would compete with the RTP, which went live in 2017. The Fed appointed Federal Reserve Bank of Boston executive Ken Montgomery to lead the development of the network; he told American Banker in 2019 that the Fed officials were taking their time in order to ensure that they "get it right."Brainard seemed to think that the Fed had met that standard, touting a "cloud-first" design unique among central bank settlement networks that would ensure both capacity to handle large volumes of transactions and reliability for consumers.
The Fed wants banks to prepare for FedNow, but many are in no rush -Banks have less than a year to prepare for the launch of the Federal Reserve's long-anticipated instant payment system. It remains unclear just how many will bother. In a Monday afternoon speech on the FedNow rollout, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said the availability of instant payments to consumers will depend on how many banks invest in becoming interoperable with the service ahead of its launch next summer.Banks will have to weigh the cost of these changes not only against the benefits offered by FedNow, but also against the alternative: The Clearing House's RTP Network. Active since 2017, RTP has the backing of the biggest banks in the country — 18 of which are members of The Clearing House — as well as more than 250 other institutions. In total, it estimates its total reach to be more than 60% of U.S. demand deposit accounts. Russ Waterhouse, executive vice president of product development and strategy at The Clearing House, said RTP has had a significant head start over FedNow, an advantage that won't easily be overcome. "FedNow is going to have a pretty tough go because they've got to convince institutions to join when the products, the functionality and the volume of the reach is already on RTP," Waterhouse said. "What is their value proposition? Finding that unique value prop is probably the hardest thing they're going to struggle with." More than 120 institutions — ranging from payments-focused fintechs to large bank holding companies, including several Clearing House members — are participating in a pilot program for FedNow, which begins technical testing this month. These groups will be positioned to connect to FedNow as soon as it goes live.
DOJ backs Democrats in FDIC board struggle — The Department of Justice has sided with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s board over its former chair. The department of legal counsel at the Department of Justice has released an opinion stating that the chairperson can't prevent a majority of the FDIC board from presenting items for a vote and decision. "The Chairperson of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation does not have the authority to prevent a majority of the FDIC Board from presenting items to the Board for a vote and decision," according to the DOJ opinion. The issue came to a head at the end of last year, when then-board member Martin Gruenberg, along with Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra and acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, moved forward with its review of bank merger policy without the approval of then-Chair Jelena McWilliams. McWilliams, at the time, said that the Democratic policymakers didn't have the authority to place an item on the FDIC board's meeting agenda, or to circulate it for a vote. In the aftermath of the scuffle, McWilliams resigned from the agency and Gruenberg became acting chairman. The issue snowballed into a partisan struggle over the agency's bylaws and how to interpret them. According to the document, the Justice Department received a letter from the FDIC's top lawyer, Harrel Pettway, on March 10, asking for an opinion on the matter. The Justice Department in its opinion favored the argument made by the Democratic appointees — that the chair of the agency can't block the will of the majority of the board when it comes to putting up an item for consideration and vote.
OCC's Hsu makes big cuts to bank assessment fees - Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu announced a dramatic cut in the semiannual assessments charged to national banks to address a pricing imbalance among community institutions. In remarks Thursday to the Texas Bankers Association, Hsu said the OCC will make a 40% reduction in assessment fees on a bank's first $200 million in assets and a 20% reduction on bank assets between $200 million and $20 billion. The reduction marks the fourth time in four years that the OCC has cut regulatory assessment fees that fund supervisory activity. The OCC cut assessment rates by 3% last year, and 10% in both 2020 and 2019. "The OCC is proactively working to close the pricing differential between state and federal charter assessments," Hsu said in prepared remarks. "The purpose of this adjustment is to level the playing field with the cost of supervision compared to state community bank charters."The cut in assessments will give community banks "extra breathing space and capacity to invest and seize opportunities related to digitalization, compliance, cybersecurity, and personnel," Hsu said. The cuts will not reduce the quality of OCC supervision, he said.The fees are partly based on a bank's size and charged twice a year, once in March and again in September. The drop in assessment fees will primarily aid community banks that can.
Green banks get $27 billion windfall to lend where others don't --When nearly 2,000 solar panels are installed on top of the Henderson-Hopkins elementary school in east Baltimore next year, they will generate enough carbon-free power for 175 area residents. The project will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and bring the economic benefits of renewable energy to a disadvantaged neighborhood. Yet traditional finance steers clear of ventures like this one, with lenders often wary of the high credit risks, potentially long payoff periods and uncertainty of investing in low-to-moderate-income communities.And in dense urban areas, some projects — such as community solar — are too small to be seen as worth the effort, even if they are critically important to decarbonizing the U.S. electric system and ensuring all Americans are part of the clean energy transition.Enter the green bank. These nonprofit funding institutions, just given a massive boost by the Inflation Reduction Act, are designed to provide innovative financing to renewable power ventures, building retrofits and clean transportation projects typically shunned by investors. With taxpayer dollars and creative deals, they can help recruit private-sector capital off the sidelines and into underserved markets, leveraging as much as $8 in private funding for every $1 that comes from the government.In the case of the Baltimore project, support is flowing from a mix of state grant money, philanthropic dollars and crowdfunded investments, all organized by the Climate Access Fund, a startup green bank. "We are pushing the envelope on every piece of the capital stack," said Lynn Heller, the fund's CEO. There are at least 22 green banks around the country now, starting with Connecticut's, which was set up in 2011. These have so far synced about $2.5 billion of their own capital with some $7 billion in private money to spur green projects that might not get funding otherwise. The new U.S. climate law plows $27 billion into an Environmental Protection Agency fund for green banks. The EPA has six months to dole the spending to nonprofit organizations to rapidly deploy low- and zero-emissions products, technologies and services. Some $7 billion is earmarked for states and tribes. That could be seed money for new state green banks, capital for existing green banks or funding for other organizations.
Rampant check fraud pits banks against other banks - Check fraud has become so widespread due to brazen criminality and mail theft that many banks are struggling to collect on bad checks from other banks. Though fraud losses are skyrocketing at all banks, small banks appear to be bearing the brunt of check fraud. Banks typically reimburse their customers when a fraudulent or stolen check gets posted against their account but getting repaid for a bad check has become a long, drawn-out affair. "There is absolutely no reason why it should ever take months for a bad check claim to be processed," said Abby Jacobs, a bookkeeper at First National Bank of Ottawa, a unit of the $1.2 billion-asset American Commercial Bank & Trust in Ottawa, Illinois. CheckFraud Chart Jacobs said the bank's bookkeeping team is trying to collect nearly $2 million this year from roughly 250 other banks where bad checks were deposited and returned for fraud. "Institutions will drag their feet for months on end simply because they can," Jacobs said. "When they do this for no valid reason, it puts hardship on the other institutions involved as well as the customers who have been defrauded." The number of checks being offered for payment has decreased dramatically over the last ten years, with the Federal Reserve processing 14.5 million checks per day — down from 26.7 million a decade earlier. The average value of a check, however, has been going up — $2,395 in 2021 versus $1,187 in 2011. Though fewer people are writing checks and check volume is declining overall, banks of all sizes are seeing a massive increase in check fraud since 2020, when stimulus and unemployment checks sent in the mail led criminals to target the U.S. Postal Service. The pandemic also has led to a loss of bank employees with proper training and expertise in inspecting checks and processing fraud claims. State law and Federal Reserve Board regulations outline banks' responsibilities and liabilities in the check-clearing process. A bank typically has until midnight of the following business day to start the process of reporting a bad check to the "bank of first deposit," a term used to denote the bank in the best position to know what a bank customer's signature looks like, experts said. But small banks say they need better protection from larger banks that are not doing enough to prevent check fraud and are bullying smaller banks into accepting the losses.
Law Firm Williams & Connelly Takes the Fed to Court on Behalf of a Peculiar Crypto Startup - By Pam and Russ Martens -Caitlin Long is the founder and CEO of a crypto startup called Custodia Bank, previously known as Avanti Financial Group. Custodia is allowed to call itself a “bank” – despite the fact that it does not have FDIC insurance on deposits – because of a 2019 law in Wyoming that allows Custodia to operate as a Special Purpose Depository Institution (SPDI). Since 2018, Wyoming has passed a flurry of laws to effectively roll out the red carpet to crypto startups and their army of lobbyists. The University of Wyoming even offers a Minor in Blockchain, notwithstanding the fact that 1,600 of the smartest minds in technology have called both blockchain and crypto a sham. But Caitlin Long’s ambitions go far beyond Wyoming. She wants Custodia Bank to become a member bank of the Federal Reserve and obtain a Master Account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. This would effectively usher in the dangers and blowups in the crypto world into the U.S. payments system.The inherent risks to the U.S. financial system notwithstanding, Caitlin Long has somehow managed to retain one of the most prestigious law firms in Washington, D.C. to sue the Federal Reserve in Federal District Court in Wyoming for not giving Custodia Bank what it’s asking for without further delay. That law firm is Williams & Connolly and four of its lawyers are listed on the lawsuit, including John Villa, who is Co-Chair of the firm’s Financial Services and Banking Practice Group.The other three lawyers from Williams & Connolly are: Ryan Scarborough, Jamie Wolfe, and Whitney Hermandorfer, whose bio includes this fascinating tidbit:“Whitney rejoined Williams & Connolly in 2021 after serving as a law clerk to Justice Amy Coney Barrett of the United States Supreme Court. Whitney previously clerked for Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito in October Term 2018; for Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh when he served as a Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit; and for Judge Richard J. Leon of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia.”Coney Barrett, Kavanaugh and Alito are considered three of the most conservative justices on the Supreme Court and thus likely to be sympathetic to challenges to the Federal Reserve, should the case end up at the Supreme Court.The case is Custodia Bank Inc v. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, et al (Case Number 1:22-cv-00125-SWS) in the Federal District Court in Wyoming. You can read the Federal Reserve Board’s memorandum in its motion for dismissal here.Two pivotal questions are why would a prestigious law firm in Washington D.C. take a case for a crypto startup in Wyoming, and how does this startup even have the money to pay such high-priced lawyers?The answer to both questions is likely the interesting source of the money behind the startup. According to the official website for Custodia Bank, its investors include a closely-knit crypto network of hedge funds and their billionaire backers who may well have a vested interest in getting Master Accounts handed out to crypto banks by the Fed.
U.S. lawmakers seek answers from fintech on buy now/pay later gun sales --A group of 18 U.S. representatives is demanding Credova Financial LLC answer questions about its no-interest financing options for the purchase of guns and ammunition.In a letter Monday to Credova Chief Financial Officer Dusty Wunderlich, the lawmakers said they are expressing their "strong concern" and seeking information about the provision and marketing of buy now, pay later financing for online purchases of firearms and related accessories.The representatives want to know what safeguards Credova has in place to stop potential customers who are prohibited from possessing guns or who have a record for criminal activity from using the company's services to buy firearms. They also want to know if Credova has information on whether customers who have purchased guns using the company's financing commit unlawful acts of violence, including in recent high-profile massacres such as in Uvalde, Texas. Other questions among the 15 listed in the letter include queries about how many customers default on their payments and what kind of disclosures Credova offers consumers.Credova, a 4-year-old startup based in Bozeman, Montana, is part of a burgeoning group of companies offering a financing alternative to credit cards. The BNPL concept allows buyers to pay for a purchase in a few monthly installments without accruing interest, and is particularly popular with young people to spontaneously purchase discretionary items such as clothes and cosmetics. Bloomberg highlighted in May how Credova is different from most other BNPL companies because it embraces gun sales, alongside other sporting goods. Most of the biggest companies in the BNPL business, including Affirm Holdings, Afterpay, Klarna Bank and Zip, don't finance guns. Wunderlich has described Credova's mission as making it easier to finance gun purchases. Read more about how Credova makes it easy to finance firearms. The lawmakers noted that the Task Force on Financial Technology of the House Financial Services Committee is already examining the risks and benefits associated with BNPL products in general.BNPL's popularity has raised concerns about consumers taking on debt too easily, but its emergence in gun retailing also has public-health implications. Mass shootings in Uvalde and Highland Park, Illinois, have called attention to how easy it is to legally buy guns in the U.S., though neither incident has been linked to BNPL financing. The letter noted that Credova's retail partners are online gun merchants whose websites "prominently highlight the convenience and benefits associated with Credova BNPL, including 'approval in seconds,' 'no impact to your credit score,' '$0 down,' and '3 Months Interest Free.'" They also market Credova's services using dangerous terminology, such as "shoot now, pay later," or "get protected now, pay later," to finance a "dream gun."
OCC requires Blue Ridge Bank to improve monitoring of fintech partners --Blue Ridge Bank in Charlottesville, Virginia, has agreed to bolster its anti-money-laundering program and improve its oversight of fintech partners in response to concerns from federal regulators. An agreement with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, whose concerns helped scuttle a previously planned merger, would require Blue Ridge to make several improvements to "manage the risks posed by" its fintech partnerships, the bank said Thursday in a securities filing. The agreement, which took effect Monday, requires the bank to get a nonobjection from the OCC before it signs any contracts with new fintech partners or adds new products with its existing partners. The bank said in the filing that it "continues to cooperate with the OCC, and to work to bring the Bank's fintech policies, procedures and operations into conformity with OCC directives.""The Bank's board of directors and management are committed to fully addressing the provisions of the Agreement within the required timeframes, and believe the Bank has made progress in addressing the requirements to date," the bank stated. The bank's securities filing did not detail the OCC's specific concerns, but Blue Ridge has faced scrutiny from consumer advocates over an income-share agreement product that it has offered to students. Critics say the product could lead to abuses. Under the income share agreements, which the bank has financed with the fintech MentorWorks, students get financing that they agree to repay with a portion of their future income.
BankThink: Exclusive conferences prove regulators are still too cozy with banks | American Banker - Next week, many of the United States' top bankers, their lawyers, and lobbyists will convene at New York's swanky Pierre Hotel for The Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute's annual conference.With them will be Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard, acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo and at least 16 other federal government officials who are scheduled to speak at the conference.Make no mistake, the TCH-BPI conference is an exclusive affair. The groups typically chargemore than $2,000 per person for nonmembers to attend.Pay-to-play conferences where businesspeople rub elbows with government officials have long stoked concerns about regulatory capture. They create the appearance — if not the reality — of special access and influence for those who can afford the price of admission.The most troubling aspect of the conference, however, is that TCH and BPI fundraise off of the government officials' appearances. This year, the groups have prominently featuredBrainard and Hsu in their promotional materials, indicating that the regulators are a major draw for potential conference attendees. The sponsors generate significant revenue from their annual shindig. For example, BPI earned $1.4 million from hosting conferences in 2019 (the most recent year for which disclosures are available). That year, Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting, FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams and CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger were keynote speakers. The revenues that TCH and BPI earn from this year's event are likely to support their day-to-day lobbying and advocacy activities. By appearing at the conference, therefore Brainard, Hsu, Adeyemo and the other government officials are essentially helping TCH and BPI influence policy.
FHFA to launch probe of Federal Home Loan banks this fall - The Federal Housing Financing Agency will conduct a comprehensive review of the Federal Home Loan Bank System this fall.FHFA Director Sandra L. Thompson announced the forthcoming probe in a statement issued Wednesday afternoon. She said the agency would examine the 11 Home Loan banks on several fronts to "ensure they remain positioned to meet the needs of today and tomorrow."The announcement comes amid growing calls for greater oversight of the Home Loan banks, whose core businesses have changed considerably since their establishment 90 years ago.The Home Loan banks were created during the Great Depression to provide liquidity for home financing and community development, and to serve as a lender of last resort. In recent years, they have become the subject of increasing scrutiny as demand for advances — the mechanisms through which the Home Loan banks support their member institutions —fell precipitously starting in early 2020. Home loan advances ticked up in the first half of 2022 but still remain persistently below historic levels.Part of the reason advances have dropped is because of the rise in deposits during the pandemic years, which have kept banks sufficiently capitalized, and evolutions in real estate finance markets that some say have made the Home Loan banks obsolete. Amid this decline in advance volumes, the Home Loan banks have conducted a greater share of their business in other areas, a trend line that could pose a threat to financial stability, if not properly monitored, according to a paper from former Federal Reserve Gov. Dan Tarullo and two Fed economists.
30-Year Mortgage Rates Pushing 6% Again - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Pushing 6% Again Excerpt: After reaching 6.28% on June 14th, 30-year mortgage rates decreased to a low of 5.05% on August 1st according to Mortgagenewsdaily.com. Since then, rates have been moving up, and rates increased today to 5.95%, probably due to Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.... Not only was Powell suggesting that a 75bp rate hike was possible in September (although most analysts expect 50bp), but he also cautioned against the view of a “pivot” in 2023 with the Fed cutting rates..
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Decelerated" to 18.0% year-over-year increase in June -S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Decelerated in June: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.0% annual gain in June, down from 19.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.4%, down from 19.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted an 18.6% year-over-year gain, down from 20.5% in the previous month.Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in June. Tampa led the way with a 35.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami in second with a 33.0% increase, and Dallas in third with a 28.2% increase. Only one of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2022 versus the year ending May 2022....Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.6% month-over-month increase in June, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.4%.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.In June, 13 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.“The deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we began to observe several months ago continued in June 2022, as the National Composite Index rose by 18.0% on a year-over-year basis,” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
US Home Price Growth Slowed In June - Weakest In 13 Months (graphs) US home price growth slowed in June (the latest data released from S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller). The headline national average saw home prices rise 17.96% YoY (well below the +19.90% YoY seen in May) and the 20-City Composite home price index rose 18.65% YoY, well below the 19.20% YoY expected and May's +20.51% surge...This is the weakest annual price growth since May 2021."It’s important to bear in mind that deceleration and decline are two entirely different things, and that prices are still rising at a robust clip," Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement. "June’s growth rates for all three composites are at or above the 95th percentile of historical experience."Tampa, Miami, Dallas reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed but all major cities have seen price growth peak (with West Coast prices fading fastest)...Notably US home affordability just reached new record lows (below the trough in July 2006) but as the chart below shows, the average home price in the US is now 65% higher than at that previous trough of affordability...
‘We’re in a housing recession’ -The Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to ratchet up interest rates have spurred concerns that the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession. But one pivotal industry may already be there. The housing market has cooled so much as the Fed withdraws its support for the economy that some analysts say it may be in a slump. Mortgage rates nearly doubled in the first half of the year. The Fitch ratings service has raised the specter of a “severe” downturn that could send home prices tumbling. Housing starts plunged in July. Builder confidence has declined the most since the 2008 meltdown, and new home sales last month were down 30 percent from the previous year, Census data shows. “I think we’re in a housing recession right now,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. “After a year and a half of post-Covid housing strength, this isn’t just a retrenchment to a more normalized trend — this is definitely a weakening.” That’s a big deal because spending on housing accounts for as much as 18 percent of GDP, and the sector typically leads recoveries. So, even as the Biden administration touts the strength of the labor market and consumer spending holds up, a prolonged downturn in the housing market could deepen any potential recession on the horizon for the U.S. economy. As the primary way most Americans build wealth, homeownership has long played a central role in the economy. It took on additional weight during the pandemic, buoying the turbulent times as white-collar Americans stoked demand by seeking more spacious homes amid lockdowns and work-from-home policies. Record-low mortgage rates encouraged the buying surge, and homeowners rushed to refinance loans, giving them a steadier financial foothold to weather Covid-driven volatility. While home prices declined last month for the first time in three years, they are still up from a year ago thanks to skyrocketing growth over the course of the pandemic. But the rise in mortgage rates, driven by the Fed’s rate hikes, priced many would-be buyers out of the market. In a note Tuesday warning that the housing market has “further to fall,” Goldman Sachs economists predicted that home price growth would “slow sharply in the next couple quarters” and fall to 0 percent in 2023. The deteriorating market has pushed sellers to slash their asking prices. More than a fifth of the homes for sale saw price drops in July, according to Redfin, the highest level the firm has recorded since it started tracking the data in 2012.
Construction Spending Decreased 0.4% in July -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during July 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,777.3 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised June estimate of $1,784.3 billion. The July figure is 8.5 percent above the July 2021 estimate of $1,637.3 billion. Private spending decreased and public spending increased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,424.2 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised June estimate of $1,436.4 billion. ... In July, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $353.1 billion, 1.5 percent above the revised June estimate of $347.9 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 36% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).Non-residential (blue) spending is 21% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars).Public construction spending is 8% above the peak in March 2009.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 14.1%. Non-residential spending is up 3.1% year-over-year. Public spending is up 3.3% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations of a 0.1% decrease in spending; however, construction spending for the previous two months combined were revised up.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 2.8% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - From CoStar: Pace of Decline in US Hotel Demand Slower Than in Past Years - Occupancy for the week ending Aug. 20 was 67.3%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous week. Nominal average daily rate fell 1.1% week over week to $151, which is 17% higher than in 2019 and 10% greater than a year ago. Nominal revenue per available room contracted 2.8% week over week to $102, but remained ahead of 2019 by 12% and was up 17% from a year ago. Inflation-adjusted, or real, ADR was ahead of 2019 levels by 1%, whereas real RevPAR was below that benchmark by 3%....While hotel demand — the number of room nights sold — has decreased week over week, it is only 1% lower than 2019 levels. Occupancy is 2.8 percentage points lower than in the comparable week of 2019 and 3.7 percentage points higher than a year ago. The difference between the demand and occupancy comparisons to 2019 is supply, which has increased by 2.6%. emphasis addedThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked seasonally and will now decline into the Fall.
Average Credit-Card Debt Soars By 13%, Largest Increase Since 1999 - The average credit card debt held by households in the United States surged by 13 percent in the second quarter, the largest increase in such debt since 1999, according to an Aug. 30 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. More consumers are increasingly relying on credit amid sky-high inflation in order to pay their bills. Credit card balances increased by $46 billion from last year, becoming the second-biggest source of overall debt last quarter, though it is below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the current credit card interest rate is now at a record high of 17.96 percent, according to Bankrate, a financial advice website. Total American household debt rose by $312 billion from the second quarter of 2021 for a total of $16.15 trillion at the end of June 2022. This is a 2 percent rise from the year-ago quarter, largely due to a jump in mortgage rates, and car loan and credit card balances, caused by40-year high inflation, said Joelle Scally, a New York Fed analyst, in a statement. The Federal Reserve is attempting to fight inflation by raising interest rates, causing fears that its aggressive moves may encourage a bad recession, as the economy recovers from the pandemic. “The second quarter of 2022 showed robust increases in mortgage, auto loan, and credit card balances, driven in part by rising prices,” said Scally, who reviews microeconomic data at the central bank branch. Household debt balances are about $2 trillion higher than they were at the end of 2019, before the start of the pandemic, as the price of goods and services have skyrocketed.
Bottom 50% of Americans are building wealth even as inflation bites - In an eight-minute speech last week that sent stock markets tumbling, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell echoed what he's said before about the importance of containing surging consumer prices: "The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them."Yet the story of the U.S. economy, as told by economic data filtered through the Realtime Inequality tracker, is more nuanced. It shows that the bottom 50% of U.S. households, generally those with a net worth of $166,000 or less before the pandemic, are in the strongest relative financial position in a generation.The group's collective inflation-adjusted wealth grew by 2.8% through the first six months of the year, according to the tracker, developed by three economists at the University of California, Berkeley. By contrast, those in the middle 40% were down 4.9%, while the top 1% — more heavily exposed to the bear market in stocks — lost more than 10%.America's working class has been buoyed by outsized wage gains in one of the tightest labor markets in decades. Incomes among the bottom 50%, adjusted for inflation, increased by 1.3% in the first half of 2022, while the middle 40%'s fell by 0.2%. Since April 2020, real income growth for the lower half of the U.S., at about 45%, has roughly doubled the pace nationwide."The remarkable trend observed since the beginning of the COVID recovery — sustained growth for the working class, breaking with decades of income stagnation — is continuing," Gabriel Zucman, one of the economists who developed Realtime Inequality, said in an email. "Although the overall economy is slowing down, it is still delivering large, inflation-adjusted gains for the working class."Still, the recent gains have only made a dent in broader inequality. The bottom 50% of Americans account for just 1.2% of the country's total wealth, compared with about 35% for the top 1% — a share that has mostly trended upward over the past four decades.
Airline Ticket Sales Unexpectedly Tumble - One of the big drivers of inflation during the late spring and early summer was - in addition to the relentless meltup in energy and commodities - the surge in airplane ticket prices amid seemingly endless demand, as millions of Americans were willing to pay anything after two years of quarantine, just to go travel anywhere and feel normal again.But now that prices have more than caught up with travel enthusiasm, demand is tumbling, and as BofA airline analyst Andrew Didora writes today, system net sales (i.e., total bookings) took a sizable step back this week to -23.6% vs 2019 for the week ending 8/21 (compared to last week’s down -9.3%) the biggest drop since February. System volumes and pricing decelerated to -23.5% vs 2019 (vs -11.5% last week) and -0.1% vs 2019 (vs +2.5% last week). As Didora explains, "we typically only see this type of weekly change around holidays, so the change is surprising. The only comp issue we have found is that in 2019 Hurricane Dorian was approaching the US at the end of August, which could have pulled forward some bookings."Some more details on the recent plunge in bookings:Domestic/int’l volumes decline with international pricing still > 2019 Overall international net sales (-21.1% vs 2019) remain ahead of domestic net sales (26.0%) relative to 2019.
Vehicles Sales Decreased to 13.18 million SAAR in August Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for August. Wards Auto estimates sales of 13.18 million SAAR in August 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.1% from the July sales rate, and up 0.7% from August 2021. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for August (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Sales in August were below the consensus forecast of 13.6 million SAAR.
American Drivers Go Deeper Into Debt As Inflation Pushes Car Loans To Record Highs -As vehicle prices rise amid inflationary pressure, Americans buying new cars are taking on higher loans and pushing themselves deeper into debt, according to credit-monitoring company Experian. Both the average loan amount and monthly payments for new and used cars have risen over the recent quarters, the firm said in an Aug. 25 news release. In second quarter 2022, the average loan amount for a new vehicle rose 13.21 percent year over year, to $40,290. During this period, monthly payments rose from $582 to $667, an increase of 14.6 percent. For used vehicles, average loans jumped 18.66 percent, to $28,534, while the average monthly payment rose from $440 to $515. Experian also found that consumers were shifting back to used vehicles, accounting for 61.78 percent of all vehicle financing during second quarter 2022, which is up from 58.48 percent during the year-ago period.“Between the inventory shortage and rising vehicle costs, consumers are looking to make the most cost-effective decision, which is often a used vehicle,” said Melinda Zabritski, Experian’s senior director of automotive financial solutions.“The benefit of higher vehicle values is that consumers are able to get more for their trade-ins, which can help offset the increased cost of their next vehicle.”According to market research firm J.D. Power, the average transaction price for a new vehicle is expected to hit a record high of $46,259 in August, up 11.5 percent from a year back.The 12-month Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, registered an 8.5 percent increase in July, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices of new vehicles rose by 10.4 percent. while used cars and trucks saw prices jump by 6.6 percent.
Heavy Truck Sales Decline Slightly in August; Still Solid -The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for August this morning. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 441 thousand SAAR in August, up from 468 thousand in July, and up from 417 thousand SAAR in August 2021. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were reasonably solid in August.
US Diesel Prices Are Back Above $5 --The national average diesel price in the United States rose in the week to August 29 to above $5 per gallon again, the first weekly increase in more than two months, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. For the week to August 29, the U.S. nationwide price of diesel jumped to $5.115 per gallon, up from $4.909/gal for the previous week. Higher diesel prices, due to low inventories, are hurting the trucking and agricultural businesses and raising the prices of consumer goods. Distillate fuel inventories, which include diesel, are about 24% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report. Inventories in the Northeast are dangerously low, at over 50% below the recent average, according to a survey by the U.S. Department of Energy cited by the Associated Press. Supplies of diesel fuel and heating oil are 63% below the five-year average in New England and 58% below the five-year average from Maryland to New York, according to the survey. Officials are concerned that an extreme weather event could cause a major disruption to distillate fuel supply in the Northeast and the entire East Coast. Now diesel prices nationwide are back up above $5 per gallon, at an average of $5.073/gal on August 30, per AAA data. This compares with $4.973/gal a month ago, and with $3.278/gal at this time last year. In the week to August 8, the average U.S. diesel price dropped to below $5/gal for the first time since March, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine drove oil prices up and upended global crude and fuel trade flows. This year’s peak diesel price was hit on June 19 at $5.816 per gallon, which was also the highest ever recorded average diesel price in America, per AAA data. ‘
U.S. Factory Orders Unexpectedly Show Sharp Pullback In July - A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday unexpectedly showed a sharp pullback in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods in the month of July.The Commerce Department said factory orders slumped by 1.0 percent in July after surging by a revised 1.8 percent in June.The steep drop surprised economists, who had expected factory orders to edge up by 0.2 percent compared to the 2.0 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.The unexpected pullback in factory orders was partly due to a notable decrease in orders for non-durable goods, which tumbled by 1.9 percent in July after shooting up by 1.4 percent in June.The report also showed durable goods orders edged down by 0.1 percent in July after spiking by 2.3 percent in June. Last week, the Commerce Department said durable goods orders were virtually unchanged.The Commerce Department also said shipments of manufactured goods slid by 0.9 percent in July following sixteen consecutive monthly increases.Meanwhile, the report said inventories of manufactured goods inched up by 0.1 percent in July after rising by 0.4 percent in June.With inventories edging higher and shipments falling, the inventories-to-shipments ratio ticked up to 1.47 in July from 1.46 in June.
A Benefit Of Soaring Inflation: Americans Are Starting To Eat Less -While the Dallas Fed is traditionally a C, or at best a B-grade economic indicator, it is best known for having some of the most entertaining and insightful critiques of the Biden regime, such as the following:
- "We’ll all be lucky to have a job with two more years of this disaster."
- "You can’t ignore the economic fundamentals leading to a likely recession, and the administration [in Washington] is either stubborn or as paralyzed as a deer in headlights"
- "Government overspending and transfer programs have inflated the money supply while resulting in unchecked corruption and waste. We will be paying that bill for generations, and what a colossal waste of resources and missed opportunity."
- "Everything we buy and sell comes and goes by truck, if we can get a truck at any price. Inflation will continue until the country is self-sufficient in oil and gas. The current political policy may not change until 2024. Therefore, inflation will be our consistent companion for a while, then stagflation!"
- "We see the environment for the oil industry becoming even worse than the previous months. Biden is promoting a very caustic attitude toward the oil industry, which doesn’t help the country in any way."
We bring it up because today we got the latest monthly update from the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity survey, which came in largely as expected at -12.9 (exp -12.7) and well above last month's catastrophic -22.6. And while there was the usual stabs at the Biden admin among the various respondents to the August survey...... the one response that was probably the most informative this month did not have to do with Texans' views of Biden but rather how the food industry is changing as a result of soaring food prices. What we learned is that one of the fringe benefits of the inflation surge is that for once, Americans are actually eating less! We are seeing moderate (-2 percent to -4 percent) decreases in volume, which is a shift from our historical volume trends (+6 percent). Less remarkable, but more amusing is that in addition to eating less, American consumers are trading down, much to the chagrin of "organic beef sausage." Consumer behavior is shifting to lower-priced items in our category as they struggle with inflation. We see particular stress in our highest-end products, notably our organic beef sausage, as consumers trade down.
ISM® Manufacturing index Unchanged at 52.8% in August - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 52.8% in August, unchanged from 52.8% in July. The employment index was at 54.2%, up from 49.9% last month, and the new orders index was at 51.3%, up from 48.0%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% August 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.8 percent, the same reading as recorded in July. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 27th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. For a second straight month, the Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since June 2020, when it registered 52.4 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.3 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 48 percent recorded in July. The Production Index reading of 50.4 percent is a 3.1-percentage point decrease compared to July’s figure of 53.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, down 7.5 percentage points compared to the July figure of 60 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since June 2020 (51.3 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 53 percent, 1.7 percentage points above the July reading of 51.3 percent. After three straight months of contraction, the Employment Index expanded at 54.2 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the 49.9 percent recorded in July. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 55.1 percent is 0.1 percentage point lower than the July figure of 55.2 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.1 percent, 4.2 percentage points lower than the July reading of 57.3 percent. The New Export Orders Index contracted at 49.4 percent, down 3.2 percentage points compared to July’s figure of 52.6 percent. The Imports Index remained in expansion territory at 52.5 percent, but 1.9 percentage points below the July reading of 54.4 percent.” This suggests manufacturing expanded at the same pace in August as in July. This was above the consensus forecast.
US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Weakest Growth In Over 2 Years, Prices Paid Plunges - S&P Global's Manufacturing surveys for August have not been pretty. Turkey, Italy, Germany, UK, the Eurozone aggregate, and Canada all printed below 50 this morning (in contraction) but US Manufacturing was expected to hold just above the Maginot Line at 51.3 and it did. However, the final August print of 51.5 (small improvement over the flash print) is the weakest since July 2020. The ISM Manufacturing survey was flat at 52.8 from July (better than the 51.9 expected)...Interestingly, S&P Global notes that 'delivery delays are the least extensive since October 2020' - which in our new normal is actually a good sign that supply chain disruptions are easing, BUT - just as it impacted the index on the way up, the PMI model sees this as a negative since in the old normal this would imply a weakening of demand.Meanwhile, S&P Global reports that employment rose at the second-slowest rate in over two years as new orders fell for the third successive month. Under the hood of the ISM print, Prices Paid plunged but this survey claims employment and new orders improved
BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 11.2 million in July --From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - The number of job openings was little changed at 11.2 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) were little changed. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.This series started in December 2000.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for July, the employment report this Friday will be for August.Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings increased in July to 11.239 million from 11.040 million in June. The number of job openings (black) were up 4% year-over-year. Quits were up 2% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
This Labor Market Still Defies any Slow Down: Layoffs, Quits, Job Openings, and Hires by Wolf Richter -- Reports of large-scale labor shortages in education, healthcare, transportation (airlines, good lordy!), and other segments rub elbows with reports of relatively small-scale layoffs in the most speculative segments of the economy – in the massively money-losing startup, SPAC, and IPO space. And there have been layoffs among mortgage lenders whose revenues plunged when demand for refi mortgages vanished and demand for purchase mortgages sagged due to spiking mortgage rates.In July, the number of layoffs and discharges dipped for the second month in a row by a smidgen and remained in the record-low range in the data going back to the year 2000. The 1.398 million layoffs in July were down by 42,000 from July last year and down by 428,000, or by 23.5% from July 2019, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, obtained from a survey of 21,000 employers. This low number of layoffs confirms the trends in the weekly unemployment claims data, released last week by the Department of Labor. The 243,000 initial unemployment claims that were filed in that reporting week were up just a little from the historic lows earlier this year.In other words, relatively few people got laid off, and most of them found new jobs quickly, or already had a new job lined up when they got laid off from the old job and never bothered to file for unemployment.In the past, recessionary periods were preceded by unemployment claims rising past the 350,000 mark. Initial unemployment claims from the Labor Department last week: Job openings increase further: the astronomical zone.Job openings in July, not seasonally adjusted, jumped to the second highest ever, to 12.09 million openings, just behind the record in April, up by 482,000 openings year-over-year and up by 4.45 million openings, or by 61%, from July 2019.Job openings seasonally adjusted jumped by 199,000 from June, to 11.24 million openings in July, up by 456,000 year-over-year and up by 4.1 million from July 2019.This is not based on some online job postings or whatever, but on the JOLTSdata that the Census Bureau collected from 21,000 employers (businesses and government entities) by asking about their workforce in July.This is another sign that the labor market remains tight and that many employers are having difficulties filling positions:The number of workers who voluntarily quit jobs in July declined for the fourth month in a row, to 4.18 million, but was still up by 15% from the already high levels in July 2019.“Quits” is a sign that employees either already have what they think is a better job lined up, or that they’re confident that they can quickly get one. This large number of “quits” reflects job hopping by workers who are trying to arbitrage the tight labor market for their benefit, amid still aggressive hiring by companies. This creates large-scale churn in the labor force.But the four months in a row of declines indicate that confidence in finding a better job, amid stories about layoffs and hiring freezes and what not, is maybe deflating just a tad:
ADP: Private Employment Increased 132,000 in August - Note: This is the first release of a new methodology. Historical data based on the new methodology is available. From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 132,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 7.6% - Private sector employment increased by 132,000 jobs in Augustand annual pay was up 7.6% according to the August ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over 25 million U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market. The report details the current month’s total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. ADP’s pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10 million employees over a 12-month period.“Our data suggests a shift toward a more conservative pace of hiring, possibly as companies try to decipher the economy's conflicting signals,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “We could be at an inflection point, from super-charged job gains to something more normal.” The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 280 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in August.
August Employment Report: 315 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 105,000, from +398,000 to +293,000, and the change for July was revised down by 2,000, from +528,000 to +526,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 107,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, 30 months after the onset of the current employment recession, all of the jobs have returned. I'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision).The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In August, the year-over-year change was 5.84 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year.Total payrolls increased by 315 thousand in August. Private payrolls increased by 308 thousand, and public payrolls increased 7 thousand.Payrolls for June and July were revised down 107 thousand, combined.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% in August, from 62.1% in July. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.1% from 60.0% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate was increased in August to 3.7% from 3.5% in July.This was above consensus expectations; however, June and July payrolls were revised down by 107,000 combined.
US employers slowed hiring in August, adding 315,000 jobs (AP) — America’s employers slowed their hiring in August in the face of rising interest rates, high inflation and sluggish consumer spending, all of which have weakened the outlook for the economy. The government reported Friday that the economy added 315,000 jobs last month, down from 526,000 in July and below the average gain of the previous three months. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, from a half-century low of 3.5% in July, as more Americans came off the sidelines to look for jobs and didn’t find work immediately. The smaller August gain will likely be welcomed by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is rapidly raising interest rates to try to cool hiring and wage growth, which have been consistently strong. Businesses typically pass the cost of higher wages on to their customers through higher prices, thereby fueling inflation.Fed officials hope that by raising borrowing costs across the economy, they can reduce inflation from a near-40-year high. Some economists fear, though, that the Fed is tightening credit so aggressively that it will eventually tip the economy into recession.Job openings remain high and the pace of layoffs low, indicating that most businesses still want to hire and that the economy isn't likely in, or even close to, a recession. The broadest measure of the economy's output - gross domestic product - has shrunk for two straight quarters, meeting one informal definition of a recession.Most economists, though, don't think a recession will have begun until the unemployment rate has risen steadily. Even so, worries about a forthcoming recession have grown after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a high-profile speech last week, made clear that to curb inflation, the Fed was prepared to continue raising short-term interest rates for the foreseeable future and to keep them elevated. Powell warned that the Fed's inflation fight would likely cause pain for Americans in the form of a weaker economy and job losses.The Fed chair also said the job market is "clearly out of balance," with demand for workers "substantially exceeding" the available supply. Friday's jobs figures and a report earlier this week that the number of job openings rose in July after three months of declines, suggested that the Fed's rate hikes so far haven't restored any such balance. There are roughly two advertised job openings for every unemployed worker. The central bank has raised its short-term rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5% this year, after the fastest series of increases since it began using its short-term rate to influence the economy in the early 1990s. It has projected that its key rate will reach a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by year's end. Those rate hikes have made borrowing and spending steadily more expensive for individuals and businesses. The housing market, in particular, has been weakened by higher loan rates.
August jobs report: despite a good headline number, the decelerating trend resumes - I have written a number of times since February that the short leading indicators have signaled that we should expect weaker monthly employment reports, with both fewer new jobs and a higher unemployment rate. That was completely *not* the case in July, In August, would the decelerating trend kick in again?That it did. Since February the 3 month average in new jobs has decelerated from over 500,000 to 378,000. And this month the unemployment rate increased to a 6 month high.Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 315,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 308,000. Government jobs increased by 7,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 442,000 jobs. The above household number factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- U3 unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.7%.
- U6 underemployment rate rose 0.3% to 7.0%.
- Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, declined -351,000 to 5.549 million, compared with 4.996 million in February 2020.
- Those on temporary layoff declined -0,000 to 782,000.
- Permanent job losers increased 187,000 to 1,354,000.
- June was revised downward by -105,000, and July was also revised downward by -2,000, for a net decrease of -107,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined -0.2 hours to 40.9 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs increased 22,000, and are at a level higher than before the pandemic.
- Construction jobs increased 16,000, also at a level higher than before the pandemic.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,300.
- Temporary jobs rose by 11,600. Since the beginning of the pandemic, nearly 300,000 such jobs have been gained.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose by 143,000 to 2,223,000, slightly above its pre-pandemic level.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel rose $0.10 to $27.68, which is a 6.1% YoY gain, a further decline of -0.1% from last month and its 6.7% peak at the beginning of this year.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers was unchanged which is above its level just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.3%, which was higher than inflation for the month, but at just under 0.7%averaged over 3 months remains slightly below the average inflation gain monthly in that period.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 31,000, but are still about -7% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments added 18,200 jobs, but are still about 600,000, or -5% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Professional and business employment increased by 68,000, over 1,000,000 above its pre-pandemic peak.
- Full time jobs declined -242,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs increased 413,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons rose 225,000 to 4,149,000.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.3% to 62.4%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: This report was positive, but much more mixed than last month’s report. The overall employment gain continued strong by historical standards, with gains in manufacturing, construction, and high paying professional and business jobs, as well as temporary positions. The hard-hit leisure and hospitality sector also continued to recover. The labor force participation rate also increased. Although the YoY pace of wages decelerated, it was still strong.But there were lots of disappointing and outright negative indicators as well. Full time jobs decreased; the household gain was driven by part time employment. Average hours in manufacturing, which lead manufacturing jobs, declined to a 12 year low, and are down -0.5% YoY, a change in line with past steep slowdowns and recessions. Aggregate hours, a more finely grained measure than the number of jobs, were completely flat. Revisions to past months were negative, re-asserting a pattern that has been in place most of this year.Most of all, both the unemployment and underemployment rates rose. As I have written a number of times in the past several months, I have been expecting this, as it was telegraphed by the rise in initial jobless claims.My take is that this report is in line with a weakening jobs picture, although the headline number of gains remained historically strong.
Full-Time Employment Collapses As Multiple Jobholders Hit New All Time High - The oddities in the US labor market continue. Recall one month ago we showed that a stark divergence had opened between the Household and Establishment surveys that make up the monthly jobs report, and since March the former was sliding while the latter was rising every single month. In addition to that, full-time jobs were plunging while multiple jobholders soared near all time highs. Fast forward to today when the inconsistencies grow and in some cases have becoming downright grotesque. Consider the following: the closely followed establishment survey came in above expectations at 315K, yet it was well below last month's 526K print, with June unexpectedly revised sharply lower by 105K from 398K to 293K... ... revisions which will go toward reducing the huge gap that has grown between the Household and the Establishment survey, although not nearly enough and as Academy Securities' strategist Peter Tchir writes, "look for more revisions as last month’s surprisingly good result wasn’t revised much." Of course, there is a problem with the above: all of these numbers are complete bullshit, and to believe them, one has to disregard and ignore the mass layoffs announced by US corporations and tracked by handy third-party websites such as Layoffs which shows that in recent months and quarter, the US has been swept by near record layoffs, on part with those observed during the peak of the covid crisis! And speaking of the gap between the Household and Establishment survey which we have been pounding the table on in recent months, it narrowed modestly thanks to a 442K jump in the number of employed workers (tracked by the Household survey) offsetting a more modest increase in employment, which rose 315K (tracked by Establishment survey). And while the rebound in the Household was long overdue, there is a long way to go as the following chart shows, demonstrating that the gap that opened in March has since grown to a whopping 1.6 million "workers" which may or may not exist anywhere besides the spreadsheet model of some BLS political activist. Of course, there is a reason why the Household survey would want to take its time in catching up to the establishment survey: since the direct variable in the red line above is the number of employed workers, which in turn drive the number of unemployed workers and thus, the unemployment rate (as a function of the civilian labor force), any overly aggressive increases here will lead to a disproportionate increase in the unemployment rate. So Biden's apparatchiks have to pick their poison. But wait, there's more because digging deeper, we find that the latest (overdue) jump in Household Survey employment was entirely the result of rising part-time jobs, which surged by 413K in August, while full-time jobs declined by 242K. More ominously, if one extends this data, we find that since March, the US has lost 383K higher paying full-time employees, while gaining 335K low-paid part-time employees. Again, this is a time period over which the Establishment survey claims - without a breakdown in job quality - that 1.9 million total jobs have been added. And even more remarkable: the number of multiple jobholders whose primary and secondary jobs are both full-time just hit another record high! Hardly the sign of a strong job market, one where people can afford to quit jobs at will. So what's going on here? The simple answer: Fewer people working, but more people working more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey. And since the Establishment survey is far slower to pick up on the nuances in employment composition, while the Household Survey has gone nowhere since March (which has benefited the low unemployment rate), the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (perhaps with the occasional nudge from the White House especially now that the economy is in a technical recession) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same erroneous seasonal adjustment factor that gave such a wrong perspective of the labor market in the aftermath of the covid pandemic (until it was all adjusted away a year ago). In other words, while the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.
Comments on August Employment Report --McBride - The headline jobs number in the August employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 107,000, combined. The participation rate increased, pushing up the unemployment rate to 3.7%. And the employment-population ratio increased slightly. Leisure and hospitality gained 31 thousand jobs in August. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.20 million jobs, and are now down 1.12 million jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 85% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 16 thousand and is now 84 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing added 22 thousand jobs and is now 67 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: August Employment Report: 315 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate In August, the year-over-year employment change was 5.84 million jobs. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in August to 82.8% from 82.4% in July, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.3% from 780.0% the previous month. Both are close to the pre-pandemic levels and indicate almost all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.149 million from 3.924 million in July. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.0% from 6.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure is at the same level as in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.137 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.067 million the previous month. This is back to pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 107,000, combined. The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.7% due to the increase in the participation rate. Overall, this was another solid employment report.
States get stingy as sour economy drains their surpluses - — The good news: Massachusetts has more money than it knows what to do with. The bad news: Massachusetts has more money than it knows what to do with. Democratic legislative leaders were hashing out a $3.5 billion economic development and tax relief package championed by Republican Gov. Charlie Baker when they got word in late July of what became a death knell: record revenues might trigger an obscure law that could send nearly $3 billion back to taxpayers. It seemed like an all-around win — why not give voters even more money in an election year? But top House Democrats, fearful of a recession, decided the state couldn’t afford to do both and sent everyone back to the negotiating table. “We wanted to make sure to be fiscally prudent,” House Speaker Ron Mariano said at the time. “We’re going to be here when and if the economy makes a downturn, we’re going to be talking about reductions in line items, potential cuts in budgets.” This is the financial reality facing governors and lawmakers across the country: States once roiled by Covid shutdowns are now flush with cash from better-than-expected tax collections and one-time federal aid infusions while they stare down rising inflation and an economy teetering toward a recession. After spending the first half of this year crafting budgets that struck careful balances between spending big and shoring up reserves, the state of play in Massachusetts highlights the financial challenges legislators and governors will have to navigate when they return to their state capitals in 2023 under potentially more volatile fiscal conditions. Some of those problems are already starting. After presenting a rosy budget picture that included a large surplus earlier this year, Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office lowered its revenue estimates earlier this month and is now anticipating higher budget deficits in coming years. In California, the nation’s largest state economy, tax revenues are starting to fall short of projections after it had a surplus approaching $100 billion earlier this year. While not every state is seeing signs of trouble — record-high tax revenues in Texas, for instance, will give lawmakers an extra roughly $27 billion to throw around in their next legislative session — many legislators and governors are squirreling billions of dollars into rainy-day funds just in case. They fear the economy might crash, or Washington could become more hostile to handouts under Republican control of Congress, or both.
Judge Rules COVID Vaccine Mandate For DC Government Workers Is Unconstitutional - A Washington D.C. superior court judge ruled Thursday that the city’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate that was imposed on city employees is unlawful.An order that was handed down by Judge Maurice A. Ross was a response to a lawsuit filed by the Washington D.C. Police Union and other groups that opposed Mayor Muriel Bowser’s mandate. Bowser in August of last year ordered city government employees to provide proof of vaccination although some workers could seek a medical or religious exemption to the shot.“A vaccine mandate is not an everyday exercise of power,” Ross wrote in his 17-page ruling (pdf). “It is instead a significant encroachment into the life—and health—of an employee. It is strikingly unlike any other workplace regulations typically imposed, as it ‘cannot be undone at the end of the workday.’ Thus, there is an expectation that a vaccine mandate must come from a legislative body.”Ross also argued that the legal “system does not permit the Mayor to act unlawfully even in the pursuit of desirable ends,” including curbing COVID-19, adding that “the Mayor lacks legal authority to impose a vaccine mandate on Plaintiffs.”The judge rejected city lawyers’ arguments that Bowser could impose a vaccine mandate in her capacity to regulate occupational and workplace hazards. The Biden administration made a similar claim to the U.S. Supreme Court last year on its vaccine mandate for private businesses before the court struck the rule down in January.“Although COVID-19 is a risk that can occur in many workplaces, it is not an occupational hazard in most,” Ross wrote in his order.It means the city can’t enforce the COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Meanwhile, disciplinary actions that were taken to enforce compliance can be reversed, according to Ross’s ruling.The DC Police Union praised the decision and said it will ensure that its officers won’t be terminated or forced to take the vaccine.
"Worse Than Couple Years Ago:" Food Bank Demand Spikes As Inflation Wrecks Households -The last time we showed readers the North Texas Food Bank (NTFB) was nearly two years ago, during the early days of the virus pandemic, when thousands of hungry and unemployed lined up in their vehicles to receive care packages. Now demand for food banks is surging, but for different reasons, as household finances are crushed by inflation and can barely afford essential items at supermarkets. Trisha Cunningham, CEO of NTFB, told CBS News that demand for her food bank "is worse than a couple of years ago -- we are serving now at higher levels than we even did at the peak of the pandemic." The overwhelming answer that CBS found of why people are lining up at the food bank is "that they can't afford groceries." One person told CBS, "it's just the basics: flour, sugar, egg, and milk" prices that have spiraled out of control, adding, "we don't buy cookies and cakes because we don't have that luxury anymore." CBS pointed out that 53 million Americans relied on food banks in 2021, compared to 40 million in 2019, which means a whopping 13 million new Americans can't afford essential items at supermarkets. None of this comes as a surprise as consumers, mainly on the lower tier, have drained savings and maxed out credit cards to survive the highest inflation in forty years. A slew of retailers warned that lower-income consumers aren't in great shape this summer despite the Biden administration touting that everything is wonderful ahead of the midterm elections in November. The latest consumer sentiment is at record lows because lower-income consumers have fewer resources to buffer against inflation. Food banks are back and could see even more demand as the Federal Reserve's most aggressive monetary tightening in decades will cause the unemployment rate to climb.
Kids’ online safety bill targeting platforms like TikTok goes to Newsom - — A first-in-the-nation proposal aimed at protecting children online with design and data privacy standards easily cleared the California Legislature Tuesday, sending the debate over regulating social media and other platforms to Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.This bipartisan legislation — AB 2273 — sprang out of a national outcry following Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen’s congressional testimony last fall about Instagram’s toll on children’s mental health. Advocates for children’s online safety demanded stronger oversight of tech companies, pitting them against tech industry lobbyists.This bill’s reach would extend well beyond California, impacting tech companies nationwide. It would target online spaces often visited by children under 18, with tight guidelines on the collection and sharing of kids’ personal information and features to protect them from predators and lessen the risk of addiction and other harms.“I come to this issue, really, as a mom,” Assemblymember Buffy Wicks (D-Oakland) said at a news conference Tuesday morning outside the state Capitol before the final vote. “I have a 2-year-old and a 5-year-old, and I really do these bills selfishly because I know that when they’re 7, 8, 10, 15, as they start engaging more in the digital world, I want to make sure that we have set up the right tools to make sure that they have the guardrails.”The proposal from Wicks and Republican Assemblymember Jordan Cunningham cleared both houses this week without a single ‘no’ vote.Newsom has said that he’s interested in addressing children’s mental health. But he will likely face pressure from the tech sector, one of the state’s biggest industries, to veto the bill, with the specter of a 2024 presidential runhanging over his shoulder. The governor has said he has “sub-zero interest” in running, though he has recently taken out ads in Republican states, stoking rumors about his national ambitions.Tech businesses pushed for months, unsuccessfully, to narrow the bill’s parameters, warning the bill would hamper older teens’ ability to use the internet freely. A coalition of industry interests asked as recently as Sunday for a change that would drop the age cap from 18 to either 16 or 13.“Without this important change, this bill could result in companies restricting access or content on their platforms for kids due to the operational and technical issues with age-verifying or even estimating the age of every user,” reads a letter of opposition from the trade association TechNet, the California Chamber of Commerce, California Manufacturers and Technology Association and the Entertainment Software Association. The Legislature, however, passed the bill with a 18-year-old age cap.
42 states and territories will provide summer food benefits for children out of school – The federal government wants to help families combat inflation by providing temporary nutrition benefits to about 32 million children through a new summer program. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a temporary electronic benefit transfer, commonly known as EBT, called Summer P-EBT that will give eligible families free or reduced-price meals or to those that have a child under the age of six that lives in a household receiving supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP) benefits. Benefits will be loaded onto a debit-type card that can be used to purchase food — with families of eligible children typically receiving $391 per child. Families in Alaska, Hawaii and the U.S. territories have higher rates. The benefit will be available in 42 states and territories and will provide an estimated $12.5 billion in temporary nutrition benefits. Alabama, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana and North Carolina are among the states participating. America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. “Providing children with the food and nutrition they need to live healthy lives is a year-round mission, and we are proud to partner with many states and territories to provide food-buying benefits for this summer,” said Cindy Long, administrator of the USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service. “Our hope is that all states will adopt the program, ensuring that all children have access to the healthy food they need and deserve.” Summer P-EBT will only be valid up to 90 calendar days following a school year, a benefit available under a public health emergency declaration. States need to provide an approved school year or childcare plan for the 2021-2022 academic year in order to be eligible to provide Summer P-EBT.
Math, reading scores fall sharply for 9-year-olds in 2022, National Center for Education Statistics reports - A new report says that math and reading scores for 9-year-olds in the United States fell to levels from two decades ago.The National Center for Education Statistics released a new progress report for 2022.It identified the COVID-19 pandemic as having a drastic impact on American school children.This is the first national report to compare student achievement from before and after the start of the pandemic.The organization says that overall, math scores dropped seven points and reading scores were down by five points.It marks the largest decline in reading since 1990 and the first time math scores have ever gone down.
Education secretary: Dramatic drops in reading, math scores should be call to action - Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said Thursday that the pandemic has had “profound impacts” on the nation’s schoolchildren and called for communities to “raise the bar for our students” in the wake of a new report showing test scores for America’s 9-year-olds fell dramatically in 2020 and 2021.In a USA Today opinion piece, Cardona highlighted a number of steps the Education Department and schools across the nation are taking to address the challenge, but pushed states and counties to do more, saying “we can’t take our foot off the gas.”“This data should serve as a further call to action for states, districts and communities to use these funds quickly, effectively and on strategies we know work,” he wrote. “It must take a commitment from all of us to use data responsibly — not to punish or label schools or educators, but to allow local leaders to target resources to communities and schools that need them most.”The National Center for Education Statistics released data Thursday as a preview of an upcoming National Assessment of Educational Progress report, known as the nation’s report card.The data showed that during the pandemic’s first two years, reading scores fell 5 percentage points, to the lowest level in 30 years, and math scores fell 7 points, the first decrease in history.The test scores reveal a stark divide between the nation’s schoolchildren along racial lines. Math scores dropped 5 points for white students but 13 points for Black students.The pandemic led to vast changes in the country’s schools, including mask-wearing, social distancing guidelines and a new shift to virtual schooling during peak waves of the public health crisis. At the same time, state and local leaders have also taken steps in some states to limit the teaching of racial issues as well as gender identity and sexuality. .Americans are largely dissatisfied with the nation’s K-12 public education system. A Gallup poll released Thursdayshows just 42 percent of Americans approve of the quality of the K-12 schooling, the lowest level in two decades. The secretary said a “substantial portion” of students behind grade level in at least one school subject in 2021 caught up in time for summer break this year. He said about half of students were behind grade level in at least one subject in the beginning of the 2021-2022 school year, but that number fell to 36 percent by the end of the school year.
Ohio schools feel heat from climate change, focus on AC -More frequent hot days are forcing Ohio schools to increasingly rely on air conditioning to keep students comfortable enough to learn.In northeastern Ohio, average fall temperatures have increased nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970. Meanwhile, school bells start ringing for many students in mid-August.“Temperatures and humidity in this region can reach uncomfortable levels during this time of the year,” said Joe Bagatti, director of business and operations for Cuyahoga Falls City School District, which welcomed students back last week. Only two of the district’s 10 buildings have central air conditioning throughout. The high school has some air conditioning, but not in some exterior classrooms in the building’s older section. The remaining seven buildings have no central air.Plans in Cuyahoga Falls call for the construction of a new building for grades 6 through 12 to start later this year. And the district is currently developing a scope of work to retrofit its elementary school buildings with cooling systems. But the timing of the upgrades hinges on voters approving a $3.6 million emergency levy this fall.The growing need for air conditioning in schools that traditionally haven’t required it is among the examples of how climate change is likely to increase costs to local taxpayers across Ohio and the country. Districts are not only investing millions to install cooling, but must also pay for electricity to run them, sometimes in aging, inefficient buildings.“Schools are really looking at how the climate is changing and how the patterns are impacting their long- and short-term capital plans,” said Phoebe Beierle, senior program manager for school sustainability at the U.S. Green Building Council.Several school districts in Northeast Ohio canceled classes on hot August school days last year, including Cuyahoga Falls.“Classrooms that do not have air conditioning or ceiling fans create an environment that is uncomfortable for both students and staff,” Bagatti said. “Keeping the temperature and humidity levels comfortable helps improve focus and productivity during learning.” The lack of working air conditioning for all classrooms was among the complaints noted by the Columbus Education Association when teachers there voted to strike on Aug. 21, along with grievances about building maintenance, class sizes, curriculum and salaries. Columbus had a combined 14 school days over 80 degrees last September andOctober.
Extreme heat is forcing students out of the classroom – Not only are schools throughout the country facing challenges thanks to a growing teacher shortage, but rising temperatures due to climate change are now forcing some students in schools without air conditioning out of the classroom. According to the Government Accountability Office, around 36,000 schools nationwide need updated or replaced heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems.This week in Philadelphia, more than 100 schools closed early yesterday and will today, thanks to the heat which is expected to range from the high 80s to early 90s, with temperatures expected to break on Thursday.All afterschool activities are also canceled for the 118 affected schools, marking a tumultuous start to the school year which officially began Monday. In a letter sent to families, officials from the city’s school district explained they reached the conclusion after consulting the organization’s 2022-2023 Extreme Heat Protocols.“We are extra vigilant in school buildings that currently have window-based air conditioning units instead of central air conditioning systems that can consistently regulate temperatures in instructional spaces,” the protocol reads. “If we expect temperatures inside the school building to reach 90℉ or higher, we then work with the school leader to determine whether a temporary shift to virtual learning is necessary for everyone’s safety. Our goal is to make that decision as early as possible, preferably the day before, to minimize last-minute disruption for our students, families, and staff.”
Area schools prep for new year amid scores of teacher vacancies - ABC11 Raleigh-Durham -- The first day of school for Wake, Durham, and Cumberland County schools is Aug. 29.Yet, ahead of thousands of students preparing for a new school year, all three districts are battling teacher and bus driver shortages amid a nationwide crisis facing the education industry."It's not by coincidence the numbers have been creeping up year after year," said Wake County parent Surena Johnson. "It's based off the conditions of teaching, the conditions of the school, and what's actually being given to the students and staff that's going to be beneficial for productivity."Across the country, teachers cite low salaries, COVID-19, continued disrespect from parents and students, and excessive lesson planning, among other things as reasons for leaving the classroom.Many teachers have also turned to Amazon wishlists to garner support and donations for in-school supplies for learning not covered by the school or the district.Officials with Cumberland County Schools reported to ABC11 that there are 150 open certified vacancies, 176 cafeteria worker positions available, and a need for 56 bus drivers.Job searches for Durham Public Schools show more than 200 teaching positions available and multiple bus driver vacancies.For Wake County Public School System operations, there were more than 700 advertised teaching jobs available and a continuous recruitment push for bus drivers."It's not by coincidence we are short 700 teachers in Wake County," said Johnson.Speaking of bus issues that plagued many students in the previous school year, Johnson said, "It was a troublesome year with not knowing when transportation was going to start. It was weeks on end ... to say we don't know if we're going to have transportation for your child because we don't have any drivers available in your area."Districts are offering big incentives and sign-on bonuses for applicants who are hired as bus drivers. "It goes to say that the school board and our elected officials aren't doing what's needed in order to serve the students and families of Wake County," Johnson said.
'So many obstacles stand in their way': White House addresses teacher shortage - -- As thousands of schools in the U.S. start the 2022-2023 school year with hundreds of teacher vacancies, the White House announced new efforts on Wednesday to strengthen the teaching profession and help schools fill vacancies. The five-page release includes how the White House will partner with job search firms to make applying and recruiting for school jobs easier, invest in teachers and expand the teacher pipeline. First Lady Jill Biden had her first public event at the Roosevelt Room since recovering from COVID-19. She was joined by officials such as Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh and other stakeholders. "There are so many other future educators out there who want to teach, but decide against it, or leave, because so many obstacles stand in their way," Biden said. "If we want to draw more bright, talented people into this field, if we want educators to be able to do what they do best, we have to give them the pay and support they deserve." The long-standing staffing challenges facing U.S. schools come as North Carolina's struggling to fill thousands of vacancies. "We have over 11,000 vacancies across the state," NCAE President Tamika Walker Kelly said. "Over 6,000 to 7,000 certified vacancies, also vacancies with our education and support professionals; so bus drivers, cafeteria workers, teacher assistants, and that is going to impact our student's educational experience not only academically in the classroom, but their entire day."
Kent School District teachers near Seattle strike for safe staffing, expanded support services and higher pay -- Teachers, counselors, nurses and therapists working for Kent School District in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area went on strike Thursday, delaying the start of the school year, after 94 percent voted to walk out. Classes have as a result been canceled all week for the district’s 25,000 students. The workers are demanding better pay, proper staffing and expanded health services in the district. They join thousands of other educators who have gone on strike this year in Minnesota, Ohio, California, Illinois and elsewhere over the same fundamental issues. The universal character of the conditions confronting public education emphasizes the need to form a network of independent rank-and-file committees, through which educators can build a powerful united movement to assert their demands. “I support the strike because our wages are below surrounding districts and we have minimal support,” one of the striking teachers told to the World Socialist Web Site. “My classroom is in overload and I have an open para[-educator] position, therefore I will be doing more work with less breaks in order to make sure my students have the support they need.” The city of Kent is home to industrial parks with Amazon warehouses, Boeing industrial buildings and manufacturing factories. Having grown over the last few years due to the influx of workers, it is now the largest district in the metro area, with a high percentage of poor, working class and minority students. The district reports that 57 percent of the students are from low-income families. About one-quarter of students at Kent-Meridian High School are still learning English as a non-native language. The conditions facing these students means there is a greater need for social support services, such as mental health care and special education supports, but the schools lack the resources to provide them.
Unvaxxed Coast Guard Cadets Given 24 Hours To Leave Campus - Coast Guard Academy cadets who have refused the Covid-19 vaccine on religious grounds were ordered to vacate the campus within 24 hours of receiving notification that their cases had undergone final military adjudication, after their religious accommodation requests (RAR) for exemptions were denied in May. In June, the Coast Guard Academy gave notice that the unvaccinated cadets would be disenrolled, while the appeals were formally rejected on Aug. 15. They failed to notify the cadets for three days, after which they gave them just one day to vacate the campus, according to Just the News. After being ordered to leave within 24 hours of being notified that their disenrollment appeals were denied, the seven unvaccinated Coast Guard cadets had to pack up everything and figure out how to get themselves and all their belongings home before the deadline, one cadet told Just the News on Monday. The cadets are still enrolled in the academy and receive pay — which the cadet said is like "pennies," anyway — as they're on temporary duty at their home addresses. Thus, they are required to attend their military trainings online, despite being unable to attend classes that started on Aug. 22. -Just the News What's more, because they're still technically enrolled, they can't leave the Coast Guard to seek other options for education or work. One cadet told JTN that it's too late to transfer to another college at this point in the semester, and that only part of their credits would transfer over to another institution anyway. Two of those told to leave are seniors, one is a junior and four are sophomores.
Student Loan Forgiveness May Result In A State Tax Bill In Over A Dozen States --Those excited about the forthcoming student loan forgiveness are now finding out that they may wind up getting hit with a state tax bill on forgiven loans. While the student loan forgiveness is set to be tax-free on federal returns, some experts have said that the cancellation may wind up triggering a state tax bill, as some states may count the cancelled debt as income. The rules could affect borrowers in more than 12 states, according to a writeup by CNBC. They may also add a state liability of roughly $300 to $1,100, the report says. The states that may be included are Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin, the report says.As a result of the American Rescue Plan of 2021, the forgiveness is Federally Tax Free through 2025. Jared Walczak, vice president of state projects at the Tax Foundation, said: “Generally speaking, states use the federal tax code as a baseline for how they define taxability.” States use "conformity" to follow Federal legislation, he said. In rare cases states may decouple from Federal guidelines and make their own. He said of handling the forgiveness: “States could come back very early in the next legislative session, update their conformity statute and make it effective immediately. This is not a niche issue that only affects a few people. It affects a very large number of people and hopefully, there will be clarity provided on it.”Many borrowers making under $125,000 per year individually or $250,000 per year married will qualify for up to $10,000 of forgiveness under the bill. Pell Grant recipients will receive up to $20,000 in forgiveness.
Middle-Class Parents Were "Tricked & Fleeced" - Nassim 'Black Swan' Taleb Blasts Biden's Student-Loan Bailout - Economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb has slammed President Joe Biden's student loan debt bailout plan. In a brief Twitter thread, the author of the bestselling books that deal with the extreme impact of rare events and argues for systems to be built "anti-fragile", argued that the cost of Biden’s "debt jubilee should be borne by universities, not taxpayers."The economist went on to say that “middle class parents were tricked & fleeced” by the implicit promise that a U.S. college degree would guarantee a good job.“If a U.S. college degree appears to be useless, it is by design,” he said, arguing that liberal arts degrees amount to “training for upper class free men (liber) who were above having a profession.”Vocational and professional schools, on the other hand, are meant to prepare people to take on jobs that pay money, he added."You learn to earn $$ in vocational or professional schools."Taleb's tweets prompted a number of responses on both sides of the ideological debate but this one from @Ofer_Rubin seemed to sum things up well for many...
Student Loan Forgiveness Proves All Those College Degrees Really Are Worthless - What is a college degree actually worth? We know what secondary schools charge for the “opportunity” to study with them, but this does not really tell us much about the value of the services they offer. On average, college tuition costs around $10,000 per year for a person studying in their home state, and $25,000 a year for those studying out-of-state. Federal student loans can cover these costs, but this is the application of public tax dollars with the expectation of returns; it is not supposed to be free money. And to be clear, NO ONE is entitled to a secondary education, let alone for free. The average interest rate on a student loan is around 5% these days, and such loans include stipulations that they cannot be erased through bankruptcy. The argument among people who support loan forgiveness is that the cost of a degree is too high and the loans are impossible to pay or escape. On top of that, many of these graduates can't even get a job once they leave college. Surveys over the past couple years show that at least 45% of college graduates are unable to find a job once they enter the private sector. Those that can find a job usually end up working outside the scope of their field of study. Keep in mind this is happening during a period of very low official unemployment. The result? Four year or eight year degree holders end up working side-by-side with high school graduates in lower wage jobs. This is extremely common and is fueling a rise in worker discontent. Their fantasies of six-figure incomes and a life of prestige suddenly hit a wall called reality, and now these students are angry and in debt to the tune of $36,000 or more on average.But do they have a right to be angry? No, not really. The problem with this line of thinking is once again about real world value. When these students chose their field of study, were they considering the value of the work they would eventually be able to do? Were they considering the job that their degree would afford them, or were they only thinking about how easy it would be to take those particular classes?As Florida Governor Ron DeSantis recently noted: “It’s very unfair to have a truck driver have to pay back a loan for somebody that got a PhD in gender studies. That’s not fair. That’s not right.” This is an accurate assessment. The loan could have been used for anything – Any field of study with limitless potential for job growth and success, but 45% of these kids chose idiotic majors with zero earning potential. The money was wasted on nothing, and now, many of these graduates that made foolish decisions are being rewarded for it with loan forgiveness by the Biden Administration.
Five ways student loan borrowers can prepare to apply for forgiveness - In a matter of weeks, the Biden administration is set to unveil applications for student borrowers to register for up to $20,000 in loan forgiveness. Under the effort announced last week, some borrowers will be able to apply for up to $10,000 in forgiveness, and double that sum for Pell Grant recipients. The administration says up to 43 million borrowers could see relief as part of the broad program, and the vast majority of these borrowers make under $75,000 per year. Applications are expected to drop by early October, and borrowers will have a short window to apply if they want to see relief take effect before the end of the year. Here are a few key steps student borrowers can take now to prepare for the application process.
California to become refuge for transgender youth seeking gender-affirming health care – A California bill that would make the state a safe haven for transgender children and their families is on its way to the governor’s desk after receiving final approval from the legislature Wednesday afternoon.The measure, introduced in May by California Sen. Scott Wiener (D), would shield transgender minors that have traveled to California to receive gender-affirming health care, as well as their families, from legal actions taken by other states where treatments including puberty blockers and hormones are illegal or heavily restricted.In February, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) ordered state agencies to open child welfare investigations into the parents of transgender children that had received gender-affirming medical care, responding to a non-legally binding opinion issued by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) that claimed some forms of gender-affirming health care amount to “child abuse” under state law.Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) in April signed into law a measure making it a felony – punishable by up to a decade in prison – for doctors and others to provide gender-affirming medical care to transgender youth under 19, writing in a signing statement that children need to be protected from “these radical, life-altering drugs and surgeries when they are at such a vulnerable stage in life.”In March, Arizona also enacted a measure to ban gender-affirming care for transgender youth, but limited its scope to gender-affirming surgeries, which are not recommended for minors.Other states including Idaho this year introduced – but failed to pass – legislation that would have made it a felony to provide gender-affirming health care to a minor or to leave the state for the purposes of obtaining gender-affirming care.
Risk of BA.5 Infection among Persons Exposed to Previous SARS-CoV-2 Variants | NEJM - In recent months, omicron (B.1.1.529) became the dominant variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), displaying some degree of immune evasion.1 The initial omicron subvariants, BA.1 and BA.2, are being progressively displaced by BA.5 in many countries, possibly owing to greater transmissibility and partial evasion of BA.1- and BA.2-induced immunity.2,3The protection afforded by BA.1 against infection by the BA.5 subvariant is critical because adapted vaccines under clinical trials are based on BA.1.Portugal was one of the first countries affected by a BA.5 predominance. We used the national coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) registry (SINAVE) to calculate the risk of BA.5 infection among persons with documented infection with past variants, including BA.1 and BA.2. The registry includes all reported cases in the country, regardless of clinical presentation.The national SARS-CoV-2 genetic surveillance identified periods when different variants represented more than 90% of the isolates.4 We identified all persons who had a first infection in periods of dominance of each variant, to calculate their infection risk during the period of BA.5 dominance (Figure 1A). We pooled BA.1 and BA.2 because of the slow transition between the two subvariants in the population. Finally, we calculated the risk of BA.5 infection for the population that did not have any documented infection before BA.5 dominance (June 1, 2022).We found that previous SARS-CoV-2 infection had a protective effect against BA.5 infection (Figure 1Band Table S1 in the Supplementary Appendix, available with the full text of this letter at NEJM.org), and this protection was maximal for previous infection with BA.1 or BA.2. These data should be considered in the context of breakthrough infections in a highly vaccinated population, given that in Portugal more than 98% of the study population completed the primary vaccination series before 2022.The study design cannot eliminate all confounders (see the Discussion section in the Supplementary Appendix). In addition, one limitation is the putative effect of immune waning in a population with hybrid immunity (previous infection and vaccination). We found that BA.1 or BA.2 infection in vaccinated persons provided higher protection against BA.5 than infection with pre-omicron variants, in line with a recent report with a test-negative design.5 However, BA.1 or BA.2 infections occurred closer to the period of BA.5 dominance than infections with previous variants. There is a perception that the protection afforded by previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection is very low, given the high number of BA.5 infections among persons with previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection. Our data indicate that this perception is probably a consequence of the larger pool of persons with BA.1 or BA.2 infection than with infection by other subvariants, and it is not supported by the data.Overall, we found that breakthrough infections with the BA.5 subvariant were less likely among persons with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection history in a highly vaccinated population, especially for previous BA.1 or BA.2 infection, than among uninfected persons.
What Makes the Latest Covid Variants More Contagious? - The Incidental Economist (video with Dr Aaron Carroll) Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5 emerged a little while ago, and they are particularly contagious. Why is that and what are we doing about it?
FDA authorizes Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech Omicron booster shots - The FDA on Wednesday authorized Covid booster shots from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna that are capable of generating protection against the coronavirus strains circulating most widely in the U.S. The move would allow the Biden administration to begin offering boosters just after Labor Day, pending an endorsement from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The agency’s vaccine advisory group is set to meet Thursday to vote on whether to recommend the boosters, with an additional discussion on Friday morning. Though the agency doesn’t always have to follow its advisory committee’s advice, it usually does.The updated emergency use authorizations permit administration of a single booster at least two months after a primary or booster dose is given. Moderna’s is authorized for all U.S. adults age 18 and up, while Pfizer’s is permitted for anyone 12 and older. “As we head into fall and begin to spend more time indoors, we strongly encourage anyone who is eligible to consider receiving a booster dose with a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine to provide better protection against currently circulating variants,” FDA Commissioner Robert Califf said in a statement. The updated emergency use authorization means the original formulations of the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are no longer authorized as booster doses for anyone 12 and older, the FDA said. Pfizer said in a statement Wednesday that it plans to withdraw its supplemental biologics license application for its original vaccine as a booster dose for people 16 and older and will refile for the bivalent option. The original vaccine will remain available as a booster dose for kids ages 5-11. Both booster shots contain messenger RNA that codes for the spike protein of the original SARS-CoV-2 variant, as well as the spike protein of the Omicron variant’s BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, which are circulating now. The boosters will be available only for people who have received at least a full primary vaccination series, according to a federal planning guide.. The same planning guidance said it expects bivalent boosters for children 11 and younger to be authorized “within a short time.”
CDC advisers back new booster shots to fight omicron -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has endorsed the first updated COVID-19 booster shots. The decision came just hours after advisers to the CDC voted to recommend reformulated versions of the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines. The vote was 13 in favor and one no vote. "The updated COVID-19 boosters are formulated to better protect against the most recently circulating COVID-19 variant," Walensky said in a written statement announcing the recommendation. "If you are eligible, there is no bad time to get your COVID-19 booster and I strongly encourage you to receive it," Walensky said. The booster shots target both the original strain of the coronavirus and the omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants that most people are catching now. This double-barreled vaccine is called a bivalent vaccine. The CDC advisers recommended that anyone age 12 and older get the new Pfizer-BioNTech boosters as authorized by the Food and Drug Administration. The updated Moderna COVID-19 vaccine is authorized for anyone 18 and older. In both cases people would have to wait two months after completing their initial vaccination or their last booster shot. But many vaccine experts say it would be better to wait at least four months since the last shot or COVID infection, or the boosters won't work as well.
CDC panel recommends updated COVID boosters | CIDRAP - As the nation braces for another possible surge in COVID-19 activity as schools resume and cooler weather brings people indoors, vaccine advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today recommended two updated COVID-19 boosters that target the circulating BA.4/BA.5 Omicron subvariants. Scientists from the companies that make the two boosters said the Omicron variant is the most distant antigenically from the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and that adding Omicron alongside the original virus in a bivalent (two-strain) vaccine has the potential to broaden protection, based on data so far. BA.4 and BA.5 share the same spike protein. The action comes just a day after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized for emergency use bivalent boosters from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech. The Moderna booster was authorized for people ages 18 and older and the Pfizer booster for those ages 12 and older. After discussions today, which included extensive presentations from CDC experts, scientists from Moderna and Pfizer, as well as comments from the public, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) passed the recommendation with 13 yes votes and 1 no vote for both boosters in separate votes. Several ACIP members aired reservations about the lack of clinical data specifically on the BA.4/BA.5 version of the booster, while acknowledging that waiting would delay the boosters a few more months. Clinical trials are under way, and the FDA based its EUA authorization on clinical data from the Omicron BA.1 bivalent booster, which has been approved in Europe, and preclinical data on the BA.4/BA.5 version. The updated Omicron boosters are made with the same method as earlier mRNA vaccines and contain the same antigen load. ACIP member Pablo J. Sanchez, MD, an Ohio State pediatrician, voted no for both boosters, saying he would rather wait for the results of clinical trials—those involving people. "We really need the human data," he said. Still, he said he thinks the bivalent vaccines will have the same safety profile as current mRNA COVID vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna and says he will likely receive one of the new boosters. The boosters will be given at least 2 months after primary vaccination or the last booster dose. CDC officials said to simplify the process, vaccinators will focus on the time since the last vaccine dose was given, not the number of earlier booster doses people have received.
Covid booster shots: How to get updated vaccines targeting omicron subvariants - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Thursday that teenagers and adults get updated booster shots from Pfizer or Moderna. The shots — also known as bivalent vaccines —are designed to target both the original coronavirus strain and the currently circulating omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5. The decision follows a similar recommendation from a panel of independent advisers to the CDC, which voted in favor of the shots Thursday.The CDC's recommendation means the shots can now be administered to the public. But a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services said people likely won't start getting updated boosters until after Labor Day.After that, appointment availability is expected to ramp up over several days, with appointments becoming more broadly available in a few weeks, a senior administration official said. People will be able to search for the closest sites offering updated boosters at Vaccines.gov. White House officials said vaccine supply should meet demand this fall. The administration has purchased 171 million updated booster doses — 105 million from Pfizer and 66 million from Moderna — thus far, with the option to procure up to 429 million more.Distribution of the doses began after the Food and Drug Administrationauthorized the shots Wednesday, with shipments to tens of thousands of locations, including pharmacies. Before that, pharmacies, community health centers and rural health clinics could pre-order the shots from the federal government. A CVS spokesperson said its pharmacies expect to get updated booster doses on a rolling basis over the next few days. People can make appointments as usual on CVS’ website or its app.Walgreens similarly said people can make appointments to get updated boosters through its website or its app or over the phone.For now, the shots remain free.Whereas the initial Covid vaccine boosters targeted only the original strain of the coronavirus, the updated boosters are designed to add protection against omicron subvariants. For that reason, the modified shots will be the only boosters available for teens and adults moving forward. The newly authorized shots target the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. As of Tuesday, BA.5 accounted for at least 87% of new U.S. cases. BA.4 and a similar sublineage, BA.4.6, made up around 11%. “The updated Covid-19 boosters are formulated to better protect against the most recently circulating Covid-19 variant. They can help restore protection that has waned since previous vaccination and were designed to provide broader protection against newer variants," CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said in a statement on Thursday.Pfizer's and Moderna’s trials of their bivalent vaccines in people studied a formulation that targeted the original omicron strain. The updated version, however, was tested in laboratory studies, which found that the boosters generated strong antibody responses against BA.4 and BA.5.Laboratory tests “so far have been a very good predictor of how well the vaccines protect against infection, as well as protecting against severe disease and hospitalization and death,”
Pfizer’s anti-COVID pill Paxlovid shows no benefit for younger adults - In its latest guidelines, from August 8, 2022, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) gave one of its strongest recommendations to Paxlovid for patients at high risk of progressing to severe COVID-19, regardless of vaccination status. The list of underlying medical conditions that raise one’s risk of severe COVID-19 is long and accounts for more than four out of 10 adults (138 million Americans, including 54 million who are 65 or older). Close to 4 million prescriptions have been filled since Paxlovid was authorized.However, the results of a new retrospective observational study out of Israel published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) seem to place a question mark over the strength of these recommendations, in particular, with the Omicron subvariant.The report’s authors found that Pfizer’s antiviral medication Paxlovid offered little to no benefit for younger adults. However, it did reduce the risk of hospitalization for high-risk seniors. Notably, supplementary material from the original study of Paxlovid in high-risk non-hospitalized adults with COVID-19 during the Delta wave had demonstrated benefits in those younger than 65, albeit the difference compared to the placebo was much less than in those 65 and older.The study’s authors utilized the electronic medical records from almost 110,000 patients enrolled in Clalit Health Services, Israel’s largest state-mandated health service organization. Nearly 4 percent, or 3,900 of the patients, had taken Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir) after contracting COVID-19.Among those over 65, there was a 73 percent decrease in the hospitalization rate and a 79 percent reduction in the risk of death. However, patients between the ages of 40 and 65 saw no benefit in taking the antiviral medication in either category, regardless of previous immunity status.One of the study’s primary limitations is that it was non-randomized, which can introduce bias in its conclusions. The authors remarked: “Our study showed that only a minority of patients who were identified as high risk and eligible for nirmatrelvir [Paxlovid] therapy received the antiviral therapy. We do not know why other eligible patients did not receive treatment, and there may be some selection mechanism that is not explained by the observed confounders.”These findings have significant implications, as the use of Paxlovid is rising amidst repeated surges of infections that run roughshod over the population, as COVID-19 is allowed free reign as a matter of policy. People are turning to these medications to reduce their risk of severe disease and lessen their symptoms, without a clear understanding among patients, medical providers and pharmacies of the indication for these drugs. This has consequences for the availability of and access to these medications and raises additional issues, such as the potential development of a Paxlovid-resistant variant.
Increased Disease Potential Of Covid Variant BA.5 Currently Circulating In The United States -Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, many iterations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have dominated over others. The B.1 variant of 2020 was overtaken by the Alpha variant in early 2021. Alpha was overcome by Delta later that Summer. Next, Delta was pushed aside for Omicron BA.1 in late 2021, followed by BA.2 shortly thereafter. Now, BA.5 dominates the global virus landscape. There are two driving forces behind the success of a SARS-CoV-2 variant over another. The first is a variant’s ability to infect those previously infected or vaccinated and the second are the virus’s intrinsic pathogenic properties. Here we focus on the latter, specifically in reference to the latest Omicron variants. A recent study by Tamura et al. focuses on the latter, specifically on how Omicron subvariants, including BA.5, compare pathogenetically to earlier virus variants. Understanding the pathogenic dynamics of emerging variants may inform drug and vaccine development, treatment regimens for those with moderate to severe disease, and surveillance for variants yet to come.As there have been nearly 600 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 (meaning the accurate count is almost certainly in the billions), hundreds, if not thousands, of SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating at any given time. However, the pandemic's number of variants of concern or interest lies under 20. These viruses have some discernable features that make them more prevalent than others. Pathogenicity is a combination of traits that result in a wide variety of virological outcomes. One of the most critical outcomes is infection impact on the lung. Tamura and colleagues evaluated the effect of different variants on respiratory epithelial and endothelial barriers. Using in vitro airway simulations, they found that B.1.1 and BA.5 exhibited significantly higher disruption than BA.1 or BA.2. They note that a significant amount of virus gathers in the blood vessel channels of respiratory cells in BA.5 and B.1.1, more so than BA.1 and BA.2. This indicates that the later Omicron variant, BA.5, has a more significant respiratory impact than BA.1 or BA.2. Tamura and colleagues then monitored each virus's pulmonary in vivo dynamics in infected hamster models with the same virus variants. Notably, they found that subcutaneous oxygen saturation in BA.5 was lower than BA.1 and BA.2, but not quite to the level of B.1.1. Again, this indicates the more severe pathogenicity of BA.5 as compared to earlier Omicron variants. The researchers also noted a higher concentration of N protein in some variants over others. The N protein oversees a significant portion of virus pathogenicity, meaning a higher concentration would imply more severe symptoms. BA.2 and BA.5-infected subjects had a higher concentration of N protein in bronchial cells as compared to BA.1, but still lower concentrations than B.1.1. After five days, BA.1 and BA.2 N protein was hardly detectable in the lungs as compared to BA.5 and B.1.1. Echoing previous observations, BA.5 appears more pathogenically adept than BA.1 or BA.2, particularly in the lungs.The researchers examined lung tissue inflammation over time based on their previous observations. As expected, B.1.1 displayed the most significant lung inflammation, followed by BA.5, BA.2, and BA.1. Lung inflammation leads to many of Covid’s most notable symptoms, including fatigue, difficulty breathing, dry cough, chest tightness, and chest pain.Two indicators for the severity of disease outcomes are syncytia formation and cleavage efficiency. They observed the reduced size of syncytia formation in the Omicron sublineages compared to the B.1.1 control. Syncytia are cellular structures formed by the fusion of uninuclear cells. Upon further examination, BA.2 and BA.5 were far more syncytia efficient than BA.1. Cleavage efficiency in B.1.1 was highest among the four subjects, but BA.2 and BA.5 outranked BA.1. What does all this mean?A unique trait of the Omicron family is the lack of efficient cleavage present in earlier variants. Cleavage allows for more efficient fusogenicity in host cells, leading to more severe disease. This is why Omicron was considered slightly less intense in terms of illness than Delta and other variants.However, the increased syncytia efficiency of BA.2 and BA.5 over BA.1 indicates that fusogenicity is increasing in later Omicron strains as opposed to BA.1. This means that despite the lacking cleavage in the variants, they are evolving to be more severe in terms of disease, meaning more intense complications for patients.
2 new COVID-19 variants are on the rise as BA.5 sees downtrend - There are two new COVID-19 variants spreading across the United States: BA.4.6 and BA.2.75. Currently, BA.4.6 is about 1.8% of infections in California, according to Dr. Henning Ansorg, Public Health Officer for Santa Barbara County Public Health Department.“The best analogy for variance is really the sports arena. I always say, you know, a certain variant has to compete against newcomers and so if somebody is a little faster, a little better at running around the corner or something, they will eventually take over,” Dr. Ansorg said.Over the summer, the U.S. experienced a COVID-19 peak with the BA.5 variant, which still comprises over 90% of cases in the United States, but even if you caught that variant, health officials say you could still catch BA.4.6 this fall.“That's why the BA.4.6 is slowly picking up steam, especially more in the eastern part of the United States, is that it can bypass some immunity against it," Dr. Ansorg said, what adding that BA.5 cases are now declining.“Even in the wastewater, we see the wastewater, there's a clear trend. We see less new hospitalizations, so there's a clear trend, at least in California, probably in the whole western United States for sure, that we're actually down,” he explained. Dr. Ansorg adds that BA.5 is mutating, so we could see another version of that variant in the coming months.
New Covid Variant BA.4.6 Outcompeting Dominant BA.5 In Swath Of U.S. –- The Centers for Disease Control’s weekly variant proportions data update today offered the clearest indication yet that a newOmicron strain dubbed BA.4.6 may be able to outcompete now-dominant BA.5 in the United States.While BA.4.6 has been in the U.S. since at least May, it remained below 2% of new cases sequenced until July, when it gradually began to rise, even as BA.5 continued to do the same. As of this week’s CDC reporting, it currently stands at 7.5%. But the real wrinkle comes when the variant proportions are broken out regionally.In the area defined primarily by California, Arizona and Nevada, BA.4.6 lags behind even BA.4, with shares of 2.8% and 3.3%, respectively. BA.5 in the region stands at 93% and rising. Compare that to the CDC-grouped region of Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri, where BA.4.6 has risen to 17.2% of all new cases sequenced, and BA.5 actually fell for the first time this past week to 78.5%. It peaked at 80% there in the first week of August and has fallen slightly in the three weeks since. During same that time frame BA.4.6 has nearly doubled in those states from 8.7%.The good news is that in all four of those states Covid numbers are down across the board.By one analysis of GISAID data, the new Omicron variant has a 16% growth advantage over BA.5, which makes it all the more bizarre that it has beat out BA.5 in some areas of the U.S. while making little progress in others.The r easons for these region differences are unclear. Los Angeles Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer told the Los Angeles Times last week.“I don’t know if there’s some relationship to the environment or the weather or particular conditions, including the vaccination status of the residents in those communities, as well as prior infections that folks have experienced,” she said. “It’s hard for us to really tease it all out from California here. I do know we need to watch it carefully.”According to data cited by the Times, “BA.4.6 constitutes just 1.5% of cases in L.A. County, a rate that remains relatively the same compared to the prior week.”GISAID data shows that in many other countries where BA.4.6 has made significant inroads, it quickly faded in the face ofanother heavily-mutated new Omicron variant, dubbed BA.2.75. It was first sequenced in May in India, where it has spread rapidly.According to the World Health Organization, “BA.2.75 has nine additional mutations in the spike compared to BA.2.” Some of those adaptations could allow the virus to bind onto cells more efficiently, said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.In countries like Spain, Germany, the U.K., Ireland and Italy where BA.4.6 initially made way against near-uniform dominance by BA.5, BA.2.75 has beat back both of those predecessors and become dominant.While BA.2.75 is present in the U.S., it is barely a blip. It’s not even specifically tracked on the CDC variant proportionsdashboard, but rolled in with parent lineage BA.2, which is currently at 0%. L.A., one of the nation’s largest counties, has sequenced just four cases to date. Whether BA.2.75 makes inroads here this fall and winter is anyone’s guess.
U.S. health officials brace for another fall Covid surge, but with fewer deaths - Fall is on the horizon and public health officials are again bracing for another wave of Covid cases. Over the past two years, fall and winter have brought devastating Covid surges that took hundreds of thousands of lives and pushed hospitals to the breaking point. But U.S. health officials say the nation is in a much different place today due to the arsenal of tools doctors now have to fight the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a report published in early August, said high levels of immunity in the U.S. population from vaccination and infection have substantially reduced the threat of hospitalization and death from Covid. The CDC ended its quarantine recommendations for people exposed to the virus last month. Public health officials are calling on people to stay up to date on their vaccines, but are largely leaving it up to individuals to decide what other precautions they should take based on their health history, risk tolerance and how much Covid is spreading in their communities. The CDC is taking a more targeted approach that focuses on making sure those at the highest risk of severe illness have access to vaccines, antiviral treatments and other therapeutics to protect their health. Many people haven't had a vaccine dose in months, which means their immune protection against the virus is waning off with some studies showing three shots of the original vaccines were just 19% effective at preventing Covid infection after five months. At the same time, more transmissible omicron subvariants are spreading. It's creating a perfect storm ahead of the cold weather months and holidays that force people indoors in close proximity to each other and a highly contagious airborne pathogen. Even with all the tools the U.S. has available, Covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths have plateaued at stubbornly high levels over the summer. The U.S. is gearing up for a booster campaign after Labor Day with reformulated vaccines that target both the original strain of the virus that emerged in Wuhan, China, in 2019 and omicron BA.5, the dominant variant in circulation. Public health officials believe the reformulated boosters will provide more durable protection against infection and help avert a major surge that taxes hospitals. The reformulated boosters could reduce infections by 2.4 million, hospitalizations by 137,000 and deaths by 9,700 from August through May of 2023 if a new variant doesn't emerge, according to a projection by a team of scientists who forecast the trajectory of the pandemic, called the Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. But the projection is based on optimistic assumptions about booster coverage and efficacy, according to the scientists. The model assumes that the shots will prove 80% effective at preventing illness, the vaccination campaign will ramp up quickly and the public will broadly embrace the new boosters. But many people in the U.S. still haven't gotten their first booster with the old vaccine yet, and it's not clear that these individuals will be more willing to take the new shots. About 76% of people ages 12 and older have received their first two vaccine doses, according to CDC data. Out of those people, about half have gotten their third shot. It's also not clear how effective the new omicron boosters will be in the real world yet. The Food and Drug Administration authorized the shots on Wednesday without results from human trials on the BA.5 shots. But Dr. Peter Marks, head of the FDA office responsible for reviewing vaccines, said the available data suggests the shots will provide substantially better protection. Public health officials are working under the assumption that the U.S. will face some version of omicron in the fall, which is why the new vaccines target BA.5. But there is always the risk that a new variant outside the omicron lineage will emerge that can evade the new shots. If Covid mutates in a way that gives life to a new, dominant variant and boosters are slow to get out to the public, the U.S. could suffer 1.3 million hospitalizations and 181,000 deaths over the next nine months, according to the scientists' most pessimistic scenario.
Wastewater Surveillance Has Become a Critical Covid Tracking Tool, but Funding Is Inconsistent -To look at recent data posted on Clemson University’s covid-19 dashboard, one might assume that viral activity is low on the Upstate South Carolina college campus. The dashboard, which relies on positive covid tests reported by local laboratories and on-campus medical offices, identified 34 positive cases among students during the third week of August and 20 cases the week before. These numbers pale in comparison to those from eight months ago, when the omicron variant first surged in the U.S. and Clemson averaged hundreds of positive covid tests every day.For those who rely on these kinds of dashboards to assess the risk of contracting covid, the recent data doesn’t paint the most accurate picture, said David Freedman, who chairs the university’s Department of Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences. With the proliferation of at-home covid tests, only a small fraction of positive results are reported to public agencies. Many people with mild infections don’t test at all. He said that better data can be found in samples collected from sewage water and that those have shown this summer’s viral activity is much higher than the number of reported cases suggests.“In our area, the numbers are actually higher than at any time except for the [first] omicron surge,” said Freedman, who runs the department’s covid wastewater surveillance program. “And yet the case reports are often zero.” Even though wastewater surveillance is proving to be the most accurate and economical way to gauge covid activity in communities across the country, Freedman and others say funding for this type of tracking hasn’t been consistent. And data collection is sometimes paused while wastewater researchers look for new ways to pay for the surveillance. “For the wastewater data to be actionable, you have to observe it,” said Mariana Matus, CEO and co-founder of Biobot Analytics, which has a $10 million contract with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to run wastewater surveillance at more than 300 sites across the U.S. “The more that you observe, the easier it is to catch early changes and take action.” Wastewater research isn’t new. The method was used in the 1940s to track polio outbreaks. Besides covid, the technique is being used to track the spread of monkeypox.For much of the pandemic, covid numbers reported on a daily or weekly basis by state and local health departments moved in tandem with data collected by wastewater surveillance programs. Typically, when cases reported by the health departments increased so did the amount of covid detected in wastewater samples.Covid-related hospitalization data is also useful in measuring community spread and gauging the severity of variants, but it is considered a lagging indicator, meaning the data tends to peak weeks after covid is already running rampant through a community, said Michael Sweat, director of the Center for Global Health at the Medical University of South Carolina, whose work focuses on covid forecasting. By contrast, because people excrete the covid virus in feces before they show symptoms of illness, community-level infections can show up in wastewater sludge before case counts or hospitalizations start to rise. Many scientists now consider wastewater surveillance a more precise way to track covid activity in real time. Without wastewater surveillance, “we just don’t have a very accurate read of things,” Sweat said. Yet some labs say the lack of a consistent and centralized source of funding raises questions about how — or if — communities can continue to carry out this work.
Clover, Dynavax COVID vaccine shows efficacy against Omicron subvariant BA.5 in trial -Clover Biopharmaceuticals said its COVID-19 vaccine SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) elicited a robust immune response to Omicron BA.5 subvariant in a phase 2/3 trial, building upon previous results for neutralization against Omicron BA.2.The Chinese company added that results come from two groups of the global phase 2/3 trial called SPECTRA. In one group 3,755 people were enrolled in Brazil, Colombia, and the Philippines who received SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) as a homologous third dose in individuals who previously received two doses of SCB-2019. Meanwhile in another group, 14,692 people were enrolled in Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, the Philippines, and South Africa who had prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.A booster dose of SCB-2019 in people who had received two doses of SCB-2019 previously, showed a robust 12-fold increase against the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, with geometricmean titers (GMTs) of neutralizing antibodies increasing from 35 (pre-booster) to 408 (14 days post-booster), the company said in an Aug. 29 press release.Clover noted that previously reported results showed that relative to pre-booster levels, a third dose of SCB-2019 exhibited a 19-fold boost in neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron BA.2 subvariant and a 12-fold boost in neutralizing antibodies against Omicron BA.1.Meanwhile in people with prior COVID infection, two doses of SCB-2019 given three weeks apart, elicited a 61-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against BA.5, with GMTs increasing from 16 (baseline) to 984 (14 days after second dose). The vaccine also exhibited a 37-fold boost in neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron BA.2 subvariant and a 20-fold boost in neutralizing antibodies against Omicron BA.1 after second dose."It builds upon the full breadth of our development of SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) as a universal booster demonstrating broad neutralization against the most current Omicron lineages and all Variants of Concern to date," said Nicholas Jackson, president of Global Research and Development of Clover.Earlier in August, the company noted that the vaccine showed efficacy in adolescents in a phase 2/3 trial. Clover said it was focused on completing regulatory submissions in China, EU and to the World Health Organization for SCB-2019 in H2 2022, while concurrently preparing for its commercialization.Clover created the COVID vaccine by combining SCB-2019 with Dynavax's (NASDAQ:DVAX) CpG 1018 advanced adjuvant and aluminum hydroxide (alum).The vaccine development has been funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which has awarded Clover up to $397.4M to enable equitable access to the vaccine candidate.
Texas reports what may be the first U.S. death from monkeypox --Texas health officials said Tuesday that a patient diagnosed with monkeypox died in what may be the nation's first-known fatality from the virus. The patient was an adult with a severely compromised immune system who lived in the Houston area, health officials said. The case is under investigation to determine what role monkeypox played in the individual's death, officials said. "Monkeypox is a serious disease, particularly for those with weakened immune systems," said Dr. John Hellerstedt, the Texas state health commissioner. "We continue to urge people to seek treatment if they have been exposed to monkeypox or have symptoms consistent with the disease." Monkeypox is generally not life threatening, but people with compromised immune systems are at higher risk of severe disease. Patients typically develop lesions that often look similar to pimples or blisters and cause excruciating pain. Eight countries have reported a total of 15 deaths from monkeypox since the global outbreak began this year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Deaths were previously reported in Cuba, Brazil, Ecuador, Ghana, India, Nigeria, Spain and the Central African Republic. The U.S. is battling the largest monkeypox outbreak in the world right now. More than 18,000 cases have been reported across the country, with infections now confirmed in every state as well as Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., according to CDC data. Across the world, nearly 49,000 cases of monkeypox have been reported in 99 countries, the data shows. The virus is primarily spreading through sexual contact among gay and bisexual men, according to the CDC. About 94% of confirmed cases were associated with sex and nearly all of the patients are men who have sex with men, Demetre Daskalakis, deputy head of the White House monkeypox response team, told reporters Friday. The outbreak in the U.S. is disproportionately affecting Black and Hispanic men. About 30% of monkeypox patients are white, 32% are Hispanic and 33% are Black, according to CDC data. Whites make up about 59% of the U.S. population while Hispanics and Blacks account for 19% and 13%, respectively. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky on Friday said health officials are cautiously optimistic the spread of the virus may be slowing as new cases fall in major cities. "We're watching this with cautious optimism, and really hopeful that many of our harm-reduction messages and our vaccines are getting out there and working," Walensky told reporters Friday. The U.S. is hoping to contain the outbreak by administering vaccines, expanding testing, distributing antiviral treatments, and educating gay and bisexual men about the virus.
Fauci warns of ‘pretty bad flu season’ - Outgoing chief White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci said the U.S. should prepare for a “pretty bad flu season” later this year.Speaking with Bloomberg Law, Fauci noted that a more severe flu season has already been observed in the Southern Hemisphere, which encounters new annual flu strains sooner than the Northern Hemisphere.“We should be prepared for that superimposed upon what I hope is the residual and not another spike of Covid,” Fauci told Bloomberg.Despite reports of a more severe flu season from the Southern Hemisphere, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has stated in its guidance that the recommendations for flu vaccinations this year are similar to last year’s.The majority of people who only need one flu shot should plan to get immunized in September or October, according to the CDC.On Wednesday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized bivalent COVID-19 boosters, which were updated to target a subvariant of omicron.Fauci said he hoped the updated shot could help impede the concurrent viral spread of both the coronavirus and influenza. In the event that the pandemic takes a turn for the worse, Fauci said he would still stick to his plans of leaving government work behind.
Water companies pour raw sewage into English waterways and onto beaches - Raw sewage is being pumped onto Britain’s beaches with rainwater overspill. Britain has experienced its hottest, driest summer for 50 years with farmers warned of serious impact to potato and carrot crops, while even drought-resistant crops like maize are suffering. Drought was declared in several areas, with water restrictions like hosepipe bans being imposed. When the weather broke last week, parts of the country saw flashfloods on parched earth under the sheer volume of rainfall. On August 17, Shanklin, on the Isle of Wight, experienced 47.8mm of rain, most of it in a sustained downpour. The deluge could not overcome the drought after such a sustained dry period. Instead, nearly 40 beach pollution warnings were issued in 48 hours as sewage poured onto beaches in water overflows. The Environment Agency (EA) warned people not to swim at 17 bathing sites in southwest England because of bacteria levels. The charity Surfers Against Sewage (SAS), which operates a live interactive map of coastal water quality, highlighted sewage spills or pollution at 37 sites across the south coast and 50 nationally. Some 90 beaches have been affected so far. Affected beaches in the North include Skegness in Lincolnshire and Robin Hood’s Bay, North Yorkshire, where warnings not to swim were issued. The Surfers Against Sewage map and footage shared on social media give a better view of the situation than statements from the water companies. When footage of raw sewage pumping out at Bexhill, East Sussex was tweeted, Southern Water was still advising there had been no local discharges. Southern Water then downplayed the seriousness, saying, “The release is 95-97 percent rainwater and should not be described as raw sewage,” and “Storm releases were made to protect homes, schools and businesses from flooding.” The EA licences using storm overflows in extreme conditions to relieve pressure on the system, but this has increasingly become standard practice. Terms of the EA’s permits are frequently breached. Last year saw 62 serious pollution incidents, the highest since 2013. In 2020 there were more than 400,000 raw sewage discharges in England, for more than 3.1 million hours—a 37 percent increase on 2019. Sewage discharge has risen 2,553 percent between 2016 and 2021, according to EA figures.
Spaceflight may increase the risk of heart disease, cancer: study – The rise of the space tourism industry, along with NASA’s recently postponed Artemis I project, have helped bring space exploration back to the forefront of the national conversation. But recent research published in Communications Biology highlights the potential health risks astronauts might face upon their return to Earth.A team of researchers from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai assessed blood samples from 14 astronauts who flew short missions between 1998 and 2001. Data revealed spaceflights may be associated with DNA mutations that can raise the risk of developing cancer and heart disease throughout individuals’ lifetimes. The study is the first of its kind and included analyses of astronauts’ blood taken 10 days prior to flight, the day of landing, and three days after landing. “Spaceflights are associated with exposure to various stressors, including [space radiation], microgravity, and other harmful space environmental factors,” authors wrote, while the mutations identified in the study are typically caused by environmental factors, like exposure to ultraviolet radiation.
FERC endorses nation's largest dam removal project - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has advanced the nation’s largest dam-removal project, which could restore flowing water to more than 400 miles of the Klamath River near the California-Oregon line.FERC’s release Friday of its final environmental impact statement reiterated its support for removing the Lower Klamath Project’s four hydroelectric dams.The review echoes the draft EIS on the proposed dismantling of the J.C. Boyle, Copco No. 1., Copco No. 2 and Iron Gate dams as well as the drawdown of four reservoirs and the restoration of affected land (Greenwire, March 1).Mark Bransom, CEO of the nonprofit Klamath River Renewal Corp. (KRRC), said that pending final approvals, dam removal could begin in 2023 and conclude as early as 2024. Restoration efforts — returning the river’s free flow from southern Oregon to Northern California and then the Pacific Ocean — will require several additional years. KRRC took ownership of the dams in 2016, following decades of discussions about their removal and the loss of the 686,000 megawatt-hours of hydroelectricity that they generate. “Once all the necessary approvals are obtained, including a License Surrender Order, it will be full speed ahead to commence the largest dam removal and river restoration effort in U.S. history,” Bransom added. Proponents of removing the four dams assert that restoring the river will improve the health of species like salmon, steelhead and lamprey, both by reopening spawning habitat upstream and by reducing water temperatures that contributed to disease in the fish.Among the changes included in the final EIS, agency staff recommended a series of inspections at each of the four reservoirs — both pre- and post-drawdown — to catalog cultural resources, as well as using “best management practices” to minimize pollution from sediment erosion.The final plan also calls for improved consultation with tribes and public outreach efforts to landowners affected by the removal project, as well as coordinating construction activities and access restrictions to reduce impacts on whitewater recreation.
Recent rain not easing drought conditions as crews continue to battle brush fires across Massachusetts - The latest drought monitor report released Thursday shows little relief from the dry conditions as firefighters and the National Guard continue to fight brush fires in Massachusetts.According to the U.S. drought monitor, nearly 40% of the state is still experiencing extreme drought. Nearly 100% of the state is in a severe drought, which has caused more than 160 cities and towns to implement some form of outdoor water restrictions.Forecasters said any rain that fell after 8 a.m. Tuesday -- including the several inches of rain that fell Tuesday afternoon in many communities -- is not included in the most recent report.Breakheart Reservation in Saugus remains closed until further notice. Officials said more than 75 acres of land in the area have burned so far. The cause of the fire is still under investigation.The historic nature of the drought has made it challenging to put out the flames.“We’ve been dealing with historic drought conditions, which have been fueling wildfires across the state and here at Breakheart Reservation for the past few weeks," DCR Commissioner Doug Rice said. “It takes tremendous effort to fight these flames in drought conditions.""This is probably the one drought year where we've had the most drought activity that we've seen," DCR Fire Warden Dave Celino said.Open flame fires and charcoal grills are banned at all DCR properties across the state because of brush fire concerns.
Lake Mead's water level has never been lower. Here's what that means. - CBS News The American West is facing its most severe drought in human history. Research suggests conditions are drier now than they have been for at least 1,200 years, and, compounded by the effects of climate change, will likely persist for another decade. Communities across the region are contending with the consequences of less water. Unmanageable wildfires have burned millions of acres of land as crops withered and air quality declined. But mounting concerns about the mega-drought seemed to reach a peak in recent months, when its repercussions became startlingly clear at Lake Mead. The reservoir, the country's largest by volume, sank to record-low elevation levels this summer. Photos revealed cracked earth and barren canyons while satellite images showed the reservoir's shrinking shorelines from space. Missing persons cases reopened after human remains resurfaced in the receding reservoir on five separate occasions — a sunken World War II-era boat and schools of lifeless fishturned up as well — and fears that Lake Mead could soon sink to "dead pool status" prompted unprecedented cuts to multiple states' water supplies. This was the second round of water cuts imposed since a shortage was declared last year in the river's lower basin, where resources have historically been stretched quite thin. It comes as federal demands loom for more significant cuts to stave off a catastrophic deficit. Located along a stretch of the Colorado River, Lake Mead spans hundreds of miles over the border of eastern Nevada and western Arizona. It works conjunctively with Hoover Dam to supply water and power to 25 million people, and is a lifeline for major cities and agricultural hubs throughout the region. Both Hoover Dam and Lake Mead are integral components of the complex system that divides and allocates the Colorado River. The river stretches 1,400 miles from Colorado's Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California, and provides water to roughly 40 million peoplein the U.S. and Mexico. It supports dozens of indigenous tribes and 11 national parks, and irrigates 5.5 million acres of farmland. Following years of steady decline, Lake Mead plummeted to its lowest elevation since 1937, when the reservoir was filled for the first time, in July. At 1,043 feet above sea level, the number recorded at Hoover Dam came dangerously close to the 1,000-foot threshold required to operate its hydropower turbines. Water elevation at Lake Powell, which feeds hydropower turbines at Glen Canyon Dam, stood at 26% of its total capacity, while the capacity of the Colorado River as a whole was just 10% higher. The U.S. Department of Interior declared a water shortage on the lower basin last year, mandating cuts for the first time under emergency guidelines drawn up in 2007 in response to the drought.The cuts, under a Tier 1 shortage, primarily fell on Arizona and Nevada, which will again face substantial reductions in water allocations as Tier 2 shortage requirements take effect in 2023. Reacting to what it called "critically low reservoir conditions" at Lakes Mead and Powell, the Interior Department announced escalated cuts earlier this month. Arizona is set to receive 21% less water than it is normally allocated next year, while Nevada and Mexico lose 8% and 7% respectively.
Lake Mead’s rising – but why? — Over the last 26 days, Lake Mead has risen 2 feet 8 inches. Before that, for six months, Lake Mead’s water level had been on a steep downward trajectory. By the numbers, Lake Mead has risen each of the last 26 days by .8 inches a day on average. In total to date, this is 32.88 inches. As of Aug, 22 Lake Mead’s water level was 1,043.45 feet above sea level. It reached a low of 1,040.71 feet on July 27. According to the Bureau of Reclamation, to raise the lake’s water level one inch, at its current depth, it takes approximately an additional 68,000 acre-feet of water. An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons. This means that approximately 176,800 acre-feet of water have been added to Lake Mead over the last 26 days. Written another way, almost 58 billion gallons of water have been added to the lake. One of the most common questions when talking about the water level at Lake Mead is speculating why the lake is rising. The prevailing thought is because of the recent monsoonal flow that has brought rain to the area for almost four weeks. While this has added to the lake level it’s not the only reason according to the Bureau of Reclamation. “Recent storm events and runoff into the tributaries that enter Lake Mead as well as reduced releases from Hoover – due to a decrease in downstream demand – are the leading cause for the recent increases in Lake Mead’s elevation,” Bureau of Reclamation Public Affairs Officer Michelle Helms told 8 News Now. Helms added that as of Aug. 19 there are no significant changes to operations at Glen Canyon Dam. So more rain and less demand have led to an increase in Lake Mead’s water level. This, however, is not sustainable since the majority of water in the Colorado River basin – including Lake Mead – comes from melting snow in the Colorado Rockies and the monsoon subsides typically over the next month.
Lake Powell Still Shrinking – The Second Largest Reservoir in the US at Lowest Level Ever - The second largest reservoir in the United States now stands at its lowest level since it was filled in the mid-1960s. Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir in the United States, now stands at its lowest level since it was filled in the mid-1960s. The view from above is sobering. A key component of the western U.S. water system, Lake Powell is currently filled to just 26 percent of capacity. This is its lowest point since 1967. On August 22, 2022, the water elevation of the lake’s surface was 3,533.3 feet. This is more than 166 feet below “full pool” (elevation 3,700 feet).The Colorado River basin is managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and other agencies to provide electric power and water to roughly 40 million people. This includes, most notably, the cities of Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Diego—as well as 4 to 5 million acres of farmland in the Southwest. River water is allotted to states (including tribal lands) and Mexico through laws such as the1922 Colorado River Compact. Downstream from Lake Powell, water storage at Lake Mead on August 22 stood at 28 percent of capacity, and the entire Colorado river system held just 34 percent. At the same time, approximately 86 percent of the land area across nine western states was affected by some level of drought. This is according to the August 16 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor.Federal water managers have been forced to reduce the amount of water that will be portioned out to states around the Colorado River watershed in the 2023 water year, after three years of intense drought and two decades of long-term drought in the American Southwest. According to an August 16 announcement from the U.S. Department of the Interior, Arizona will receive 21 percent less water from the Colorado River system next year; Nevada will receive 8 percent less; and Mexico will get 7 percent less.Based on August 2022 modeling projections, USBR expects total inflows to Lake Powell to be just 62 percent of average for the year. Hydrologists predict that by January 1, 2023, Lake Powell levels could drop to about 3,522 feet.
Why Lake Mead continues to rise while Lake Powell falls — It’s not all bad news when talking about Lake Mead, in fact, recently, the news about its rising water levels have been good. Now, we are getting a clearer picture of what is causing the lake to rise more than three feet since the beginning of August. On Aug. 1 the lake’s water level was 1,040.99 feet above sea level. As of noon on Aug. 31, the level was 1,044.32 feet, an increase of 3.3 feet.The Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) — which oversees water distribution and collection along the Colorado River basin – told 8 News Now the rise was due to the increase in rainfall from the monsoonal flow and decreased demand from downstream partners (states).We now know that, according to the BOR, 64% of the lake level rise this past month has come from rain runoff and the other 36% from decreased downstream demand.Downstream demand is the lumped total estimate for diversions/consumptive use off the river from users downstream of Hoover Dam all the way into Mexico,” BOR Public Affairs Officer Amee Andreason said. “This includes municipalities as well as irrigation districts and farms. When we say decrease, we are referring to a real-time decrease in the amount of water that is being used compared to the original water use schedules in our models.”This recent water level rise will also change the prediction models created by the BOR showing what can be expected months and even years ahead.“As of August 29, Lake Mead is projected to end August about 2.5 feet higher than what was estimated in the August 24-Month Study,” Andreason told 8 News Now. “To date, we have observed about 112,000 acre-ft of additional inflow compared to what was modeled (about 1.6 ft) and we have decreased Hoover Dam releases by 67,000 acre-ft compared to our original modeled estimate (about 0.9 ft). This results in additional inflows being responsible for about 64% of the total increase in Lake Mead’s elevation.”Simply written, more water is coming into Lake Mead from rain runoff and less water is being released downstream through the Hoover Dam because Arizona and California are using less than what was predicted.At this time the BOR cannot officially say which state is using less water than predicted or why the state(s) are using less water, that information will be released in the September 24-Month Study.
Drought and Doubt on the Rio Grande: A Q&A with Watershed Scientist Martin Castro - The Texas-Mexico border is experiencing a historic drought, one in which the Rio Grande, already one of the world’s most endangered rivers, is dwindling at an alarming rate. In the southernmost stretch of the Rio Grande watershed, more than 3 million people in Mexico and the United States rely on the river. The city of Laredo, Texas, which has a population of more than 260,000 and the largest inland port on the border, relies solely on the Rio Grande for its water, as do many other cities in the region.If nothing changes, Laredo will run out of water by next spring, according to Martin Castro, watershed science director for the Laredo-based nonprofitRio Grande International Study Center. Last week, Castro gave a presentation to Laredo’s city council in which he also noted that communities downstream, such as Zapata, are already nearly dry.Despite Castro’s warnings and recommendation that the city adopt Stage 3mandatory conservation efforts, including restricting irrigation, prohibiting the construction of new swimming pools, and turning off outdoor fountains, city council members adopted less restrictive conservation measures, much to the frustration of their downstream neighbors.In this Q&A, Castro talks about the difficulties of managing a binational water resource and how elected officials consistently fail to act, even though drought, driven by climate change, is worsening.Climate change threatens the survival of iconic saguaro cactus in the Southwest PBS (video & transcript) The saguaro cactus is being threatened by drought conditions and rising temperatures. Scientists surveying Saguaro National Park in Arizona say the situation is increasing the mortality rate of young saguaros. Stephanie Sy has more on what those trends mean for ecosystems in the Sonoran desert.
Blame game rages as water system crashes in Miss. capital - A water crisis in Mississippi’s capital city has left scores of people without running water in sweltering temperatures and stoked fury over the state and federal response. After flooding overwhelmed the city’s fragile water system, President Joe Biden last night issued an emergency declaration for Mississippi, entitling the state to help and money from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. State and city officials have said it’s unclear how many of the city’s 150,000 residents are still without safe drinking water. “We have thousands of lives that are in danger, from floodwaters moving across the city, from pathogens as the heat increases,” said Mustafa Santiago Ali, a former EPA environmental justice adviser and founder of the nonprofit Revitalization Strategies. “I’m concerned we have extreme heat and elders won’t be able to hydrate, which puts people’s lives in danger. We know that Black folks die at twice the rate of our white brothers and sisters.” Advertisement Why, he asked, hasn’t cash from state revolving funds and the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package that Biden signed last fall been used to help Jackson? Jackson’s population is 81.8 percent Black and 16 percent white, with a poverty rate of 26.9 percent, slightly higher than the rest of the state, according to the Census Bureau. “When will those dollars make it to cities like Jackson?” said Ali, now an executive vice president at the National Wildlife Federation. “And what’s the long term plan to address the needs that the climate crisis is going to place on these systems?” Scientists warn that climate change will intensify water problems as extreme weather brings more frequent and intense floods and droughts. Biden’s approval of an emergency declaration authorizes FEMA to “coordinate all disaster relief efforts” and to provide equipment and resources, which could include emergency relief supplies such as bottled water and the muscle to distribute it.
If You Thought This Summer’s Heat Waves Were Bad, a New Study Has Some Disturbing News About Dangerous Heat - As global temperatures rise, people in the tropics, including places like India and Africa’s Sahel region, will likely face dangerously hot conditions almost daily by the end of the century – even as the world reduces its greenhouse gas emissions, a new study shows.The mid-latitudes, including the U.S., will also face increasing risks. There, the number of dangerously hot days, marked by temperatures and humidity high enough to cause heat exhaustion, is projected to double by the 2050s and continue to rise. In the study, scientists looked at population growth, economic development patterns, energy choices and climate models to project how heat index levels – the combination of heat and humidity – will change over time. We asked University of Washington atmospheric scientist David Battisti, a co-author of the study, published Aug. 25, 2022, to explain the findings and what they mean for humans around the world. There are two sources of uncertainty when it comes to future temperature. One is how much carbon dioxide humans are going to emit – that depends on things like population, energy choices and how much the economy grows. The other is how much warming those greenhouse gas emissions will cause.In both, scientists have a really good sense of the likelihood of various scenarios. For this study, we combined those estimates to get a likelihood in the future of having dangerous and life-threatening temperatures.We looked at what these “dangerously high” and “extremely dangerous” levels on the heat indexwould mean for daily life in both the tropics and in the mid-latitudes.“Dangerous” in this case refers to the likelihood of heat exhaustion. Heat exhaustion won’t kill you if you’re able to stop and slow down – it’s characterized by fatigue, nausea, a slowed heartbeat, possibly fainting. But you really can’t work under these conditions.The heat index indicates when a person is likely to reach that threshold. The National Weather Service defines “dangerous” as a heat index of 103 F (39.4 C), and “extremely dangerous” as 125 F (51.7 C). If a person gets to “extremely dangerous” temperatures, that can lead to heat stroke. At that level, you have a few hours to get medical attention to cool your body down, or you die.“Extremely dangerous” heat index conditions are almost unheard of today. They happen in a few locations near the Gulf of Oman, for example, for maybe a few days in a decade.But the odds of the number of “dangerous” days are increasing as the planet warms. We’ll likely have about the same weather variability as today, but it’s all happening on top of a higher average temperature. So, the likelihood of extremely hot conditions increases.In the mid-latitudes by 2050, we’ll see the number of dangerous heat days double in the most likely future scenario – even under modest greenhouse gas emissions that would meet the Paris climate agreement target of keeping warming under 2 C (3.6 F).In the Southeastern U.S., the most likely scenario is that people will experience a month or two of dangerous heat days every year. The same is likely in parts of China, where some regions have been sweating through a summer 2022 heat wave for over two straight months. We found that by the end of the century, most places in the mid-latitudes will see a three- to tenfold increase in the number of dangerous days. In the tropics, such as parts of India, the heat index right now can exceed the dangerous level for a few weeks a year. It’s been like that for the past 20 to 30 years. By 2050, those conditions are likely to occur over several months each year, we found. And by the end of the century, many places will see those conditions most of the year. What that means in practice is if you’re a rich country like the U.S., most people can afford or find air conditioning. But if you’re in the tropics, where about half the world’s population lives and poverty is higher, the heat is a more serious problem for a good part of the year. And a large percentage of people there work outside in agriculture.
California’s ‘climate migrants’ and the difficulty of finding a new home — Nicole Cook planned to visit her mother and stepfather in Mariposa County one weekend. But, she never imagined the home where the couple lived together for 16 years would no longer be standing by the time she could get there.The Oak Fire sparked on July 22 east of the city of Mariposa, and within 24 hours grew to be the state’s largest fire, burning through a dried-out section of the Sierra Nevada mountain range in central California. The fire burned nearly 20,000 acres and officials estimate 127 homes were destroyed.One of those homes belonged to Cook’s parents. The six-bedroom house was built by her stepfather almost 50 years ago. He was proud of it because “it wasn’t a square box,” Cook said, and instead had large domes. One dome contained the kitchen, while the other housed the bedrooms, where Cook, 33, slept during her high school years. Now, the family is talking about rebuilding from the pile of ash one day.Fire crews have been able to contain the fire almost fully, but many residents are left to comb through what’s left, and to make difficult decisions about what’s next for them.As California and other parts of the West continue to experience record-breaking heat and wildfires, decades-old houses are burning away in climate-linked disasters, fueling the number of Americans who are becoming “climate migrants” – a term researchers use for people who are displaced by such events. In places like Mariposa County, the climate disaster is converging with a housing shortage brought on by a historical lack of home-building and affordability concerns that aren’t meeting needs across the state. The issues are creating an increasingly common struggle for California families: Too many are in need of housing that sometimes doesn’t exist in their community. The state estimates at least 2.5 million homes are needed in the next eight years to catch up to demand. The housing challenge has also been felt in other parts of the country dealing with climate disasters.
Huge smoke clouds and high carbon monoxide concentrations produced by wildfires in Brazil - Wildfires in Brazil are producing huge smoke clouds and high carbon monoxide concentrations, as shown in the Copernicus/Sentinel-5P image acquired on September 1, 2022. The plume is about 4 000 km (2 500 miles) long.
‘I Do Not Know If My People Will Survive’: A Fifth Year of Drought Is Coming to East Africa - The 62nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) ended its three-day session with the words: “we have never seen anything like this – five seasons of drought”.“You should even wonder if you can call it a rainfall season,” the committee concluded. It “will be devastating” for countless numbers of East Africans living through the longest drought in decades.A joint statement by other metrological partners, including the UK Met Office, in May of this year had predicted the October-December 2022 rainy season could fail. Now, that forecast has been confirmed.This news will be devastating to vast swathes of communities in the Horn of Africa facing the threat of starvation following four consecutive failed rainy seasons in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. It is a climatic event not seen in at least 40 years.Jonathan Kanka, the Tiplit villager leader, knows how heavy such news will be felt.“I do not know if my people will be able to survive another season without rain,” he told Byline Times. He points out the stretched skin of his lean cattle, rib-bones protruding. Walking skeletons in the dust. Theirs seems a slow death.The devastation this drought will bring cannot be under-estimated. Already across the Horn of Africa, more than 20 million people wake each day not knowing where food will be found. Their animals, too, face starvation – almost nine million livestock have died across the region.The drought, local conflict, the impact of COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine have all spiked food prices in many areas. The UN reports a 30% jump in food costs threatening people across Africa and the Middle East. More than 16 million people in the Greater Horn cannot access enough water for drinking, cooking and cleaning. Water-borne infections and diseases are the invariable companions to this endless dry. A lack of co-ordination, political prioritisation, investment and media interest were all cited in GHACOF as concerning and why the region is unprepared for what seems an encroaching nightmare.
Its largest lake is so dry, China digs deep to water crops - Associated Press (AP) — With China's biggest freshwater lake reduced to just 25% of its usual size by a severe drought, work crews are digging trenches to keep water flowing to one of the country's key rice-growing regions.The dramatic decline of Poyang Lake in the landlocked southeastern province of Jiangxi had otherwise cut off irrigation channels to nearby farmlands. The crews, using excavators to dig trenches, only work after dark because of the extreme daytime heat, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.A severe heat wave is wreaking havoc across much of southern China. High temperatures have sparked mountain fires that have forced the evacuation of 1,500 people in the southwest, and factories have been ordered to cut production as hydroelectric plants reduce their output amid drought conditions. The extreme heat and drought have wilted crops and shrunk rivers including the giant Yangtze, disrupting cargo traffic.Fed by China’s major rivers, Poyang Lake averages about 3,500 square kilometers (1,400 square miles) in high season, but has contracted to just 737 square kilometers (285 square miles) in the recent drought. As determined by water level, the lake officially entered this year’s dry season Aug. 6, earlier than at any time since records began being taken in 1951. Hydrological surveys before then are incomplete, although it appears the lake may be at or around its lowest level in recent history.
Fish kills in the Oder River: Interaction of climate change and systematic pollution - In the past weeks, the public has been shocked by images showing masses of dead fish floating in the Oder River, on the German-Polish border. Recent reports speak of 150 to 200 tons of fish killed. As the fish kill continues to grow in scale, scientists are slowly unraveling the background to the ecological tragedy. The focus is on the explosive spread of a species of algae. Currently, there is concern of a second wave of die-off. Due to rainfall in the upstream Silesia region, the Oder rose briefly there by a meter. Now that wave of water is washing everything downstream that the otherwise low water levels had kept there. The wave could reach the lower course of the river within the next three days. The dead fish collecting downstream are developing into a new death trap. Before the Oder River enters the Szczecin Lagoon, it branches into tributaries and Lake DÄ…bie, located near Szczecin. Disposal of the carcasses is carried out mainly by volunteers, local fire departments and authorities, who are unable to cover the extensive terrain. Decomposition of large quantities of dead fish removes oxygen from the water and at the same time forms ammonia in saline water. Together with the typical summer oxidation, due to high water temperatures and slowed photosynthesis because of the turbidity of the water, there is a dramatic lack of oxygen with a simultaneous danger of ammonia poisoning. Near Szczecin, 0.6 milligrams of oxygen per liter were measured last weekend in the western arm of the Oder River. The normal level is 4 milligrams. The Gazeta Wyborcza reported about the shocking conditions in Szczecin: The smell of death and decay lies over the Oder promenade. Hundreds of dead fish are floating in the water. Three fire department boats and the volunteer water rescue service try to haul in fish with landing nets, but their forces are too modest. The day before, the local anglers association reported having removed 20 tons in one day. Fish that have so far survived the poisoning are now in danger of suffocating due to the decomposition of the dead fish. Currently, north winds are preventing rapid flow into Lake DÄ…bie, which has not yet been affected. Attempts are being made to artificially increase the oxygen level by means of around 30 pumps, aeration machines and an ozone maker from Warsaw. On Wednesday, the oxygen content at one point was 1.72 mg/l. But in the end, this is only a drop in the bucket, ensuring the survival of only a few fish. The ensuing second wave of decay compounds the danger and could spoil the entire lake. “Lake DÄ…bie is now the last bastion for surviving fish to find refuge. There is oxygen there, there is life! If the wave along the East Oder comes directly toward DÄ…bie, there is a serious risk that dozens of tons of dead fish and other organisms, including decomposing organisms, as well as other organic matter that consumes oxygen or releases toxins, will go directly into the lake. We can’t let that happen!”
Catastrophic flooding in Pakistan leaves families stranded without aid — Floodwaters ripping through Pakistan have killed more than 1,000 people since mid-June, affected millions of others and left entire villages inaccessible to relief workers.Pakistani officials are calling the scale of the crisis “unprecedented” as they scramble to provide supplies, medical assistance and temporary shelter to those who have lost their homes.The provinces of Sindh and Balochistan in the south of the country have suffered the most destruction. Some families tell The Washington Post they haven’t received any government assistance, forcing thousands to flee on foot in search of food and dry land. “I have never in my life seen such rains and the floodwaters,” said Bashir Ahmed Mallah, a 62-year-old farmer in Sindh. The floods are the worst to hit Pakistan in over a decade. Initial government figures suggest they could be more devastating than the 2010 floods that killed hundreds and left millions homeless. Already battling a spiraling economic crisis and a power struggle with the country’s former leader, Imran Khan, the Pakistani government is appealing for outside help. Officials say that they are struggling with limited supplies, and that relief teams are overwhelmed by the magnitude of the disaster. “The devastation caused by the floods is unprecedented,” Sindh Information Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon told The Post. In Sindh province, some 1,800 camps have been set up for those who lost their homes, and Memon said thousands more remain stranded. “The destruction and losses are so huge, it’s something we have never seen before.” Mallah, the farmer in Sindh, said his house is badly damaged, but more than a dozen homes in his area — most built from mud brick — have collapsed completely, and entire fields of crops are in ruins.“There is nothing left, just dirt,” he said.A government health center was set up in his village for a day last week, Mallah said, but it has since been dismantled, even though hundreds of people are without food and shelter. “We need immediate government assistance,” he pleaded. The head of a local humanitarian group in Balochistan said damage to infrastructure has left some districts completely cut off.
Pakistan reels from ‘apocalyptic’ floods, pleads for international aid - Multistory hotels crumbling into rising waters. Surging waves crashing into elevated roads and bridges. Millions of people driven from their homes. Showing videos of what they called “apocalyptic” floods currently sweeping their country, Pakistan’s leaders, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, pleaded Tuesday for aid from developed nations, which they said were responsible for bringing extreme weather to one of the world’s most vulnerable regions. “I can say without any fear of contradiction, this flood situation is probably the worst in the history of Pakistan,” Sharif said. The South Asian country of about 220 million people is now facing an unprecedented crisis after eight consecutive weeks of heavy rainfall. The floods have killed 1,100 people, affected more than 33 million residents, wiped out 1 million homes and destroyed about 2,200 miles of roads, Pakistani officials said Tuesday. Nearly 500,000 people are in displacement camps, and many others have nowhere to go. The death toll and economic burden are expected to rise, adding stress to an economically fragile and politically divided country. “We want to showcase this to the developed world in particular,” Ahsan Iqbal, the minister for planning and development, told reporters in Islamabad. “The quality of life that people in the West are enjoying today, someone is paying the price in the developing world.” The growing number of extreme weather events around the world is caused by the planet’s rising temperatures, weather experts say. Higher temperatures mean more water in the air: For every degree of warmer temperature, the air can hold about 4 percent more water, leading to torrential rainfall. Pakistani officials said Tuesday that the country experienced a slew of abnormal weather events this year. Four heat waves came immediately after the winter, leading to a year “without spring.” The heat scorched crops. But in recent weeks, parts of Pakistan experienced about four times more rainfall than the 30-year average. In Sindh, the city of Karachi has seen 48 inches of rainfall in the past two months. The financial hub, which has a desert climate, usually sees less than 10 inches of rainfall per year.
Massive floods leave more than 1 million homes damaged or destroyed, Pakistan - (videos) The death toll from destructive floods affecting Pakistan since June 14, 2022, rose to 1 162 on August 31, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) reports. During the same period, more than 3 500 people were injured, 33 million were affected, and more than 1 million homes were damaged or destroyed. Officials said this year’s monsoon season brought more than one-third of the country underwater and described the floods as one of the worst in history. As of August 31, Pakistan has received 189% more rain than the 30-year average, totaling 399.3 mm (15.7 inches) for the pre-monsoon and monsoon rains.1 The worst affected was Sindh with 696.4 mm (27.4 inches) or 461% above average, followed by Balochistan with 327.5 mm (12.8 inches) or 435% above average. The floods claimed the lives of 1 162 people – 422 in Sindh, 264 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 253 in Balochistan, 188 in Punjab, 41 in Azad Jammu & Kashmir, 22 in Gilgit-Baltistan and 1 in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT). 118 247 people were rescued by the Pakistani Army, Navy and Air Forces. 33 million people were displaced after 1 106 359 homes were damaged or destroyed (733 536 damaged; 372 823 destroyed). Sindh was the worst affected with a total of 923 945 homes damaged (616 339) and destroyed (307 606). A total of 5 063 km (3 146 miles) of roads were damaged or destroyed, as well as 243 bridges. In addition, 731 818 domestic animals were killed, with most of them in Balochistan (~500 000), 205 104 in Punjab and 16 513 in Sindh.
U.N. chief calls Pakistan floods a ‘climate catastrophe’ - As Pakistan seeks aid to cope with deadly and costly flooding, many politicians and activists demand that the United States and other rich countries compensate poor nations for damage caused by global warming - Since mid-June, torrential rain has changed the landscape of Pakistan, submerging villages and fields, destroying homes and killing at least 1,000 people. But if the human toll is catastrophic, the financial toll is almost unimaginable: According to Pakistan’s finance minister, the damage so far is likely to exceed $10 billion, or 4 percent of the country’s annual gross domestic product. On Tuesday U.N. Secretary General António Guterres made a video appeal for aid to Pakistan, saying, “Let’s stop sleepwalking towards the destruction of our planet by climate change.” “The Pakistani people are facing a monsoon on steroids — the relentless impact of epochal levels of rain and flooding,” Guterres said. “As we continue to see more and more extreme weather events around the world, it is outrageous that climate action is being put on the back burner as global emissions of greenhouse gases are still rising, putting all of us — everywhere — in growing danger.” But even as Pakistan turns to donors around the world asking for aid, there is one thing that the country will almost certainly not receive: compensation from the countries — including the United States — thatare most responsible for planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. While the two issues may seem unconnected, for decades developing countries have asked richer ones to provide funding for the costs they face from heat waves, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and other climate-related disasters. They argue that the nations that became wealthy from burning fossil fuels such as the United States, Germany, United Kingdom and Japan also heated up the planet, causing “loss and damage” in poorer countries.The issue has become a flash point in global climate negotiations. In the landmark 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, countries agreed to recognize and “address” the loss and damage caused by those dangerous climate impacts. Last year, at the major U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, negotiators from developing countries hoped that negotiators would finally create a formal institution to funnel cash to the countries most affected by climate disasters. But the United States, despite being the largest historical emitter of carbon dioxide, has blocked such efforts at every turn. In Glasgow, the Biden administration joined a group of countries in resisting efforts to establish payments to developing countries that have been hit hard by climate change. One of the key issues is liability. U.S. delegates fear that if a formal loss-and-damage fund is created, the United States could open itself up to litigation from poorer countries. “We always remain thoughtful about the issue of liability,” John F. Kerry, the U.S. international climate envoy, said during the Glasgow summit.
Typhoon “Hinnamnor” reaches super typhoon strength, becomes the strongest tropical cyclone of the year - Typhoon “Hinnamnor” formed on August 28, 2022, and reached super typhoon strength by 12:00 UTC on August 30, making it the strongest tropical cyclone of the year. The system is currently located well east of Okinawa, Japan, and is heading west at 28 km/h (17 mph). At 12:00 UTC on August 30, the center of Super Typhoon “Hinnamnor” was located about 575 km (360 miles) east of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. It had maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph), with gusts up to 280 km/h (175 mph). According to the JTWC, Hinnamnor’s maximum 1-minute sustained winds were at 240 km/h (150 mph) – making it a Super Typhoon. The minimum central barometric pressure was 920 hPa, and the system was moving west at 28 km/h (17 mph). Hinnamnor is forecast to continue tracking generally westward over the next 12 hours under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge to the northeast, JTWC said.1 Still in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear and moderate outflow aloft, the typhoon is forecast to reach a potential peak intensity of 250 km/h (155 mph) or higher by 15:00 UTC on August 31.
Super Typhoon “Hinnamnor” devours Tropical Depression “Gardo” - to impact Okinawa and South Korea - Typhoon “Hinnamnor” – the first super typhoon of the season and the strongest tropical cyclone of the year – merged with Tropical Depression “Gardo” on September 1, 2022, and continued moving toward Okinawa, Japan. The system is expected to turn toward South Korea and Western Japan on September 5. At 09:00 UTC on September 2, the center of Typhoon “Hinnamnor” – known as Henry in the Philippines – was about 570 km (355 miles) SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. It had maimum 10-minute sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph), with gusts up to 240 km/h (150 mph), and maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 935 hPa, and the system was moving NNW at 11 km/h (6.9 mph). Animated radar imagery reveals a defined eye, while enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows deep convective banding wrapping into a raged, formative eye, JTWC forecasters said at 15:00 UTC today.1 The ASCAR-B image indicates gale-force winds over the northern semicircle extending just south of Ishigakijima and Miyakojima, Japan. Gale-force winds are more extensive over the southern semicircle, extending about 370 km (230 miles) to the east and southeast. The system is forecast to re-intensify to a peak of 195 km/h / 120 mph (1-minute) by 15:00 UTC on September 4, according to the JTWC. At around 00:00 UTC on September 5, Hinnamnor will recurve toward South Korea and Western Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said the typhoon is forecast to approach the Sakishima Islands, including Miyako and Ishigaki, on Saturday evening (LT), September 3, with heavy rain, strong gusts and high waves.The conditions are expected to worsen on Sunday, with winds of up to 235 km/h / 145 mph (10-minute) around the Sakishima Islands and up to 125 km/h (75 mph) affecting the prefecture’s largest island.2 Over the next 24 hours, the Sakishima Islands could get up to 300 mm (12 inches) of rain, Tokai region and Okinawa’s main island up to 150 mm (6 inches) and up to 100 mm (4 inches) in the Kinki Region.
Slow Start to 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season There has been a slow start to the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season, Standard Chartered analysts noted in a new report sent to Rigzone this week. “By 31 August last year 11 named storms had formed, of which five were hurricanes, including one category four hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour,” the analysts stated in the report. “However, only three named storms (all categorized as tropical storms) have formed so far this year, one in early June and two in early July, the most destructive of which had maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour,” the analysts added. In the report, the Standard Chartered analysts said it is perhaps still too early to conclude that crude oil and oil product supply risk will be lower than usual this year because of lower storm activity, adding that we are now entering what is usually the peak period for storm activity. “11 of the last year’s 21 named storms formed in the between 26 August and 24 September,” the analysts said in the report. “However, we think it is becoming likely that latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast of 14-20 named storms might prove too high, particularly if storm activity does not increase significantly over the next two weeks,” the analysts added. The analysts went on to note in the report that the impact of hurricane season on the energy markets is dependent on the path and strength of storms. They added, however, that this season, “given the current dynamics of both oil and gas markets, we expect even more sensitivity than normal to any potential hurricane-related disruptions in the Gulf Coast area that might affect refinery operations, oil output or LNG terminals”. At the time of writing, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking three weather disturbances in the Atlantic. One has an 80 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours, one has a 60 percent chance and the other has a 40 percent chance, according to the NHC.
Danielle becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of the season - Danielle became the first Atlantic hurricane of the season on September 2, 2022, after a remarkably long streak with no hurricane activity in the basin. This is the latest calendar year first Atlantic hurricane since Humberto on September 11, 2013. At 15:00 UTC on September 3, Danielle was located about 1 425 km (885 miles) W of the Azores. It had maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph), minimum central pressure of 992 hPa and was moving W at 2 km/h (1 mph).1 The hurricane is forecast to meander over the open Atlantic during the next couple of days, then slowly turn toward the northeast early next week. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Earthquake swarm under Ta’u volcano continues, American Samoa - The earthquake swarm related to Taʻū Island, American Samoa, that started in late July 2022 continues. The Aviation Color Code remains at Yellow. Data from the new seismometers confirms that the source location of earthquakes has not moved for many days. This tells us that the cause of the earthquakes has not shifted within the earth, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) said on August 30.1 The American Samoa Emergency Operations Center did not receive any felt reports for the past 24 hours. However, the USGS seismic network detected at least 30 earthquakes that were large enough to be felt by people on the ManuÊ»a Islands. “It is unclear if this earthquake unrest will escalate to a volcanic eruption and exactly where an eruption might occur,” HVO said. “An eruption could pose significant hazards to residents of American Samoa; these hazards include volcanic gases, volcanic ash, low-level localized explosions of lava, lava flows, earthquake shaking, and tsunami.” The primary hazard of concern at this time is earthquake shaking, although no physically damaging earthquakes have occurred as part of this swarm. In the coming weeks, USGS staff will install Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to improve the ManuÊ»a Islands’ monitoring network. The GPS equipment will detect very slight movements of the ground. As a result, GPS data will help us better understand what is happening beneath the ground and provide more accurate hazard assessments.
Ohio environmentalists note climate change authority now ‘enshrined’ in federal law – Environmental groups in Ohio say new language in federal law will solidify the scope and authority of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.The Inflation Reduction Act, which Congress passed and President Joe Biden signed into law earlier this month, included language that defines greenhouse gases as carbon dioxide, hydrofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.Chris Tavenor, Ohio Environmental Council staff attorney, said the U.S. EPA has always had the responsibility to regulate greenhouse gases, but the new language “enshrines” that authority.“If there were any future legal challenges to the U.S. EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, those challenges will be a lot more difficult having this language so clearly in the act,” said Tavenor.On June 30, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a 6-3 decision that the U.S. EPA did not have the authority under the Clean Air Act to issue regulations for each state to cut down on power plant emissions. The EPA was carrying out this initiative through the Clean Power Plan, which was created by the Obama administration.Opponents said the EPA did not have authority to implement the Clean Power Plan without more specific guidance from Congress.Rep. Bill Seitz (R-Cincinnati) said, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruling was announced, that the court is simply saying that “Congress needs to provide a clearer direction to the administrative agency before the administrative agency can come up with such a sweeping rule.”Tavenor said the new language in the Inflation Reduction Act does not counteract the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling, but it can protect the U.S. EPA’s authority against future legal challenges.As for the intent of the now-repealed Clean Power Plan, Tavenor said the Inflation Reduction Act’s investments in renewable energy and carbon-cutting projects get “at the heart” of what the Clean Power Plan was trying to accomplish.“So it's creating some financial mechanisms to transition the country away from fossil fuel power plants without using the approach that was in the Clean Power Plan,” said Tavenor. The federal investments include $9 billion in consumer home energy rebate programs, $10 billion in tax credits for investments in clean technology manufacturing such as facilities that build electric vehicles, and $30 billion in tax credits that incentivize U.S. manufacturing of products like solar panels and wind turbines.
Climate Envoy John Kerry Seeks Restart to US Emissions Talks With China - John Kerry, the Biden administration’s special presidential envoy for climate, has praised China’s efforts at tackling global warming and urged Beijing to resume suspended talks on the issue, even as tensions flare with Washington over the status of Taiwan.China cut off climate talks with the U.S. this month in protest of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, putting negotiations between the world’s two largest carbon dioxide emitters in peril.On climate change, however, Kerry said that China had “generally speaking, outperformed its commitments.”“They had said they will do X, Y and Z and they have done more,” Kerry told the Financial Times from Athens, where he was on an official visit.“China is the largest producer of renewables in the world. They happen to also be the largest deployer of renewables in the world,” Kerry said, referring to renewable energy. “China has its own concerns about the climate crisis. But they obviously also have concerns about economic sustainability, economic development.”China’s military drills around Taiwan have worsened already tense relations with the Biden administration over Beijing’s support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and trade disputes. Disagreements with the U.S. have reached into the clean-energy sector, after Congress passed a law barring imports of solar panels and components linked to forced labour in China.Kerry, who served as secretary of state under President Barack Obama, urged Chinese president Xi Jinping to restart climate talks with the U.S., saying that he was “hopeful” that the countries can “get back together” ahead of the U.N.’s November COP27 climate summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.“The climate crisis is not a bilateral issue, it’s global, and no two countries can make a greater difference by working together than China and the United States,” Kerry said.
LaBarge carbon storage project wins federal approval - Wyoming gas plant’s carbon storage project became the first planned injection well to be greenlit by the Bureau of Land Management, the agency announced Friday. Natural gas trapped in the LaBarge oilfield, near ExxonMobil’s Shute Creek Gas Plant, contains a usually high proportion of carbon dioxide. The facility separates and sells millions of tons of the carbon dioxide produced from drilling each year, primarily for enhanced oil recovery, a process that uses the gas to force more oil out of depleted reservoirs“This project is a prime example of how the BLM can work together with industry leaders to combat climate change,” Andrew Archuleta, the agency’s Wyoming director, said in a written statement.The plant is already responsible for close to 20% of all human-made carbon captured annually, according to Exxon, which announced last October that it had finalized plans to increase capture capacity by about 15% and begin storing some of that carbon dioxide underground.According to the BLM, the proposed well is expected to permanently store about 60 million cubic feet of carbon dioxide per day approximately 18,000 feet underground, beneath Lincoln and Sweetwater counties.While the plant is located on Exxon’s property, the carbon dioxide would be injected into BLM land.At present, roughly half of the carbon dioxide Exxon extracts near Shute Creek is unsold and ultimately released into the atmosphere, according to a March report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. The company is required to report its carbon dioxide emissions to the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality, which does not currently restrict those emissions.“By expanding carbon capture and storage at LaBarge, we can reduce emissions from our operations and continue to demonstrate the large-scale capability for carbon capture and storage to address emissions from vital sectors of the global economy, including industrial manufacturing,” ExxonMobil spokesman Todd Spitler said in an email to the Star-Tribune.Spitler did not answer emailed questions about what permits the company is still awaiting or when it expects the project to be complete, responding, “We’re continuing to make progress on the expansion.” Exxon has said previously that it anticipates beginning to sequester carbon at the site in 2025 if permitting progresses on schedule.
US to see renewable energy boom in wake of historic climate bill -- Renewable energy is set for an unprecedented boom in the US in the wake of its first ever climate bill, with the capacity of solar and wind projects expected to double by the end of the decade and providing the bulk of total American electricity supply, new analysis has shown. The passage of the legislation, known as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), will help propel the US towards the forefront of the clean energy economy, experts predict, helping it compete with China on the manufacturing and installation of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and emerging zero carbon technology. The tax credits contained in the bill’s $370bn of climate spending should help double the capacity of installed wind and solar by 2030, according to an updated analysis by the research firm Energy Innovation.. This extra resource could enable clean electricity to provide anything from 72% to 85% of total US supply by this time, flowing from 795 to 1,053 gigawatts of cumulative solar and wind capacity. “This bill is going to make it very cheap to create clean electricity – you are going to get an incredible amount of deployment of solar and wind,” said Robbie Orvis, a senior director of analysis at Energy Innovation. “It will really unleash investment in renewables. It has all the incentives to grow the industry domestically. It’s a complete jump-start for renewables.” About $180bn in extra capital investment in renewables could be spent by 2030, according to Energy Innovation. A separate research group, Rystad Energy, has forecast even more will be funneled into the sector – about $270bn – leading to hundreds of thousands of new jobs. “The Inflation Reduction Act is a game changer for the US wind and solar industry,” said Marcelo Ortega, renewables analyst at Rystad.
Inflation Reduction Act could shift EV battery composition: BofA Global - The Inflation Reduction Act includes a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles that requires portions of critical battery materials to be extracted or processed in the United States. While that may initially limit what vehicles can access the credits, analysts at BofA Global Research say the long-term impact could be changes to battery composition, including reduced use of cobalt, and the on-shoring of more domestic processing of critical materials. To access the credits, by 2026, vehicles will need to have 80% of critical materials sourced domestically or from a country with which the U.S. has a free trade agreement “Hitting those thresholds will require major efforts,” according to a BofA Global Research report published Monday. “Indeed, materials account for almost two-thirds of EV battery costs. Given where supply is coming from, the targets may be easiest to achieve for lithium and more difficult for nickel.”Cobalt is “unlikely to make a meaningful contribution toward qualifying for the tax credit,” analysts said, as it is largely mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo and then processed in China. That could open the door for a higher penetration of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which do not contain nickel or cobalt.“The industry needs to keep a focus on boosting lithium production, potentially also in the US,” BofA Global analysts added.President Joe Biden has set a goal for half of all new passenger vehicle sales in the United States to be electric vehicles by 2030. Auto companies and industry analysts say it will be a heavy lift and requires development of new supply chains for raw materials alongside investments in charging infrastructure.Global markets will likely remain tight going forward, BofA Global said. “To start with, there is immense competition for battery raw materials ... on current mine supply and EV production trajectories, we expect virtually every commodity to be undersupplied beyond 2025.”The use of recycled batteries and critical components can also help manufacturers qualify vehicles for tax credits, and the U.S. Department of Energy on Monday said it is seeking comment on new programs to strengthen domestic battery recycling. The bipartisan infrastructure law included $335 million in investments over five years for lithium-ion battery recycling programs.
The electric vehicle boom could bring lithium mines back to North Carolina -- In the Piedmont region of North Carolina, about 50 miles east of the Blue Ridge mountains, a thin, 25 mile-long belt of ore stretches north from the southern state line. The strip, called the Carolina Tin-Spodumene Belt, contains the country’s largest hard rock deposit of lithium. Back in the 1950s, lithium gained importance as a component of nuclear bombs and pharmaceuticals, and the area around Kings Mountain, near Charlotte, saw a major boom in mining. For about 30 years, the region supplied almost all the lithium in the world. Then in the 1980s, production moved to lower-cost operations overseas. Today, less than 1 percent of global lithium is mined in the United States, all from one mine in Nevada; the vast majority comes from Chile, Australia, and China. But as nations seek to cut emissions and transition to clean energy sources, demand for the metal is increasing, and the U.S. is looking to ramp up production within its borders. Last summer, President Joe Biden signed an executive order calling for electric vehicles, which depend on lithium-based batteries, to make up 50 percent of all new vehicle sales by 2030. The Inflation Reduction Act, recently signed into law, aims to incentivize a domestic battery supply chain, providing tax breaks for mines and credits for electric cars and grid storage applications when a percentage of the battery is produced or recycled in the U.S. Now, mining companies are once again eyeing North Carolina as they seek to capitalize on the booming market for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that three known spodumene deposits in the region – around Kings Mountain, Bessemer City, and Cherryville – contain a combined 426,600 metric tons of lithium. That amount, which includes reserves that could be economically extracted at present as well as other estimated resources, would be enough to supply batteries for over 50 million electric vehicles. Piedmont Lithium Inc., a 2016 Australian startup, acquired thousands of acres in Gaston County and signed a deal to supply lithium to Tesla in 2020. It ultimately relocated its headquarters to North Carolina last year. Albemarle, a specialty chemical manufacturing company and one of the largest lithium producers in the world, has invested about $100 million in a possible project in neighboring Cleveland County.
Manchin permitting deal offers mixed bag for mining - Mining companies have longed to get a fix for their federal permitting problems. But some legal experts say they shouldn’t hold out hope that those issues will go away with a new permitting reform proposal making its way through Congress.Federal mine reviews have been moving at a snail’s pace for a long time. Even as President Joe Biden calls for a new U.S. mineral supply chain for electric vehicles and solar panels, his administration has approved relatively few new mines and slowed some projects.On paper, it would seem Washington is poised this fall to wrestle with the industry’s woes, as Congress prepares to debate a permitting deal that Democratic leadership struck with Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as a condition for his vote on a landmark package of climate, health and tax legislation. Although the text of the proposal has not been introduced, an outline Manchin released promises on paper what mining companies eager to start digging have long asked for: a faster permitting process.Yet legal experts who reviewed the outline said mining companies really shouldn’t expect too much from Manchin’s deal.According to the outline, the proposal would set one- to two-year mandatory timelines for completing environmental reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act and require the president to designate and prioritize reviewing projects of “strategic national importance” — including mining projects.It would also set a one-year deadline for issuing permits related to Clean Water Act compliance and a statute of limitations for legal challenges against permits (Energywire, Aug. 4).These provisions are vehemently opposed by many environmental groups that say they would wipe away regulations local communities can use to try to stop projects they oppose. Earthworks, a nongovernmental organization that advocates on behalf of people impacted by mining, said in a recent blog post the deal “is an attempt to stymie opportunities for communities to voice their opinion on projects that will directly impact them.” Attorneys who work on federal permitting for mines described the outline in interviews as a mixed bag: Tighter deadlines to complete reviews, they said, won’t end the bureaucratic hurdles that cause delays to construction (Greenwire, Aug. 9).
Blue states poised to copy California’s gas-car phaseout - — California moved Thursday to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars and trucks by 2035, a first-in-the-nation mandate the state’s leaders hope will jolt the automotive industry and truly make electric vehicles mainstream.Other states led by Democrats, including New York and Oregon, are expected to swiftly follow California’s lead in a liberal-state push to fight climate change — moves not unlike past mandates on emissions and car safety.California’s determination to force what would amount to a monumental economic and social change reflects both the state’s long history in shaping the country’s auto market with stringent vehicle standards and the dire threat posed by climate change.“It’s ambitious, it’s innovative, it’s the action we must take if we’re serious about leaving this planet better off for future generations,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement after the California Air Resources Board adopted the requirement. “California will continue to lead the revolution towards our zero-emission transportation future.”The rule, which was formalized nearly two years after Newsom first announced it, will pose a significant challenge. Sales of fully electric vehicles in California, the country’s largest auto market, have made up 16 percent of the total so far in 2022. Industry experts say reaching the new goal will require fixing supply chain issues and building charging stations — and for EV prices to come down.“Whether or not these requirements are realistic or achievable is directly linked to external factors like inflation, charging and fuel infrastructure, supply chains, labor, critical mineral availability and pricing, and the ongoing semiconductor shortage,” said John Bozzella, the president and CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. Nationwide, fully electric vehicles make up only 6 percent of total new car sales. Still, other states are expected to adopt similar targets.
California residents asked to curtail electricity, avoid charging electric cars ahead of Labor Day - California is urging residents to curtail their energy use for a second day in a row as the state braces for a heat wave ahead of the Labor Day weekend. Huge swaths of the West could see temperatures surpass 100 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. The California Independent System Operator (ISO) has issued a “Flex Alert” for Thursday from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m., due to high heat across the state and supply uncertainties.The flex alert was issued for a second day in a row and as the operator said it is experiencing some of the highest load levels of the year.Residents have been asked to pre-cool their homes before 4 p.m. and then set the thermostat to 78 degrees or higher from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. They have also been asked to cease the use of major appliances and to avoid charging their electric vehicles during the flex hours.In a release, the California ISO added that overnight temperatures are staying high, which can cause buildings and infrastructure to retain heat and result in increased air conditioner use. “During multiple days of heat, generators that have been running at top speed can fail or trip offline unexpectedly. We also have to expect the unexpected, meaning we need to be prepared for any unplanned event that could tighten energy supplies,” it added. The time slot was chosen as it is the “most critical time” on the grid, according to the operator, as solar production is “going offline, but temperatures remain high.” “Turn off all unnecessary lights from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. Cook your meals earlier in the day to save energy and keep your home cooler,” it added.
Power Company Seizes Control Of Thermostats In Colorado During Heatwave - Around 22,000 households in Colorado lost the ability to control their thermostats after the power company seized control of them during a heatwave. After temperatures soared past 90 degrees, residents were left confused when they tried to adjust their air conditioning and found locked controls displaying a message that said “energy emergency.” Xcel confirmed to local news station Denver7 that “22,000 customers who had signed up for the Colorado AC Rewards program were locked out of their smart thermostats for hours on Tuesday.” “I mean, it was 90 out, and it was right during the peak period,” Tony Talarico told the news station. “It was hot.” Talarico said he is normally able to override the “energy emergency” message, but not on this occasion. “So, our thermostat was locked in at 78 or 79,” he said. When thousands of Xcel customers in Colorado tried adjusting their thermostats Tuesday, they learned they had no control over the temperatures in their own homes. via @jaclynreporting https://t.co/mgLEC6SEzR This story is yet another example of how smart meters will pave the way for energy rationing. No doubt Americans who have them installed will increasingly find their thermostats remote controlled at the behest of energy companies whenever a dubious ‘crisis’ can be declared. And if that sounds bad, just imagine what will happen if net zero green energy ‘climate lockdowns’ become normalized. People in major European countries are already having their thermostats regulated in response to the energy crisis. In Spain, at the height of summer, authorities have controversially banned air conditioning from dropping below 27°C (80.6°F) in all non-residential buildings, including shops, cinemas and cafes. Onerous fines for those who flout the rules run all the way up to €600,000 euros for “serious violations.” Similar rules have also been announced in Germany, Italy and France.
Texas Crypto-Mining Rush May Need as Much Power as Entire State of New York - Crypto currency miners are accelerating their push to expand in Texas far beyond what authorities had initially expected, threatening to send the state’s electricity use skyrocketing. Enough miners have applied to connect to Texas’s power grid to use up to 33 gigawatts of electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the system, said in an email Friday. That’s a third more than what the grid operator’s chief executive officer said in April that officials were preparing to handle over the next decade. It’s also enough to power all of New York State.
A neighborhood's cryptocurrency mine: Never-ending noise - — It’s midnight, and a jet-like roar is rumbling up the slopes of Poor House Mountain. Except there are no planes overhead, and the nearest commercial airport is 80 miles away. The sound is coming from a cluster of sheds at the base of the mountain housing a cryptocurrency data center, operated by the San Francisco-based firm PrimeBlock. Twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year, powerful computers perform the complex computations needed to “mine,” or create, digital currencies. And those noise-generating computers are kept cool by huge fans. “It’s like living on top of Niagara Falls,” said Mike Lugiewicz, whose home lies less than 100 yards from the mine. “When it’s at its worst, it’s like sitting on the tarmac with a jet engine in front of you. But the jet never leaves. The jet never takes off. It’s just annoying. It’s just constant annoyance,” he said. After China cracked down on cryptocurrency mining last year, dozens of cryptocurrency companies and hundreds of independent miners set up operations in sparsely populated parts of the United States, lured by the availability of cheap and plentiful power. But they have been followed in some areas by noise complaints against the computers and the fans, leading to lawsuits and community action and sharply dividing local populations. Across America, there are relatively few standards for noise pollution. Although the Environmental Protection Agency established a noise pollution program in 1972 under the Clean Air Act, the agency has generally left noise issues up to state and local authorities. In North Carolina, noise-control regulations are usually the responsibility of counties, according to the state’s Department of Environmental Quality. North Carolina’s Cherokee County, where the PrimeBlock cryptocurrency mine is located, has had a noise ordinance on the books since 1999, but locals say it is unevenly enforced and does not specify a decibel threshold. Enhanced by weather, topography and the surrounding silence in this remote part of Appalachia, the unrelenting noise quickly became intolerable for Lugiewicz, who moved to Poor House Mountain from Brooksville, Fla., in 2005. “As soon as they started the first container, we said: ‘That’s it. We’re done,’ ” Lugiewicz said. A sensor placed on Lugiewicz’s property by The Washington Post captured noise levels roughly every five minutes over nearly three weeks. In nearly every reading — 98 percent of the time, day or night — decibel levels were above 55, about the noise of a normal conversation. More than 30 percent of the readings exceeded 60 decibels — high enough that if they were in D.C., they would violate the city’s daytime residential noise ordinances. Estimates from the National Park Service show that expected environmental sound levels in the area should be around 41 decibels.
Natural gas plants with carbon capture could save industry billions – think tank -An estimated $1.6 trillion price tag for decarbonizing the U.S. power sector by 2035 could be reduced by $300 billion if some natural gas-fired plants paired with carbon capture technology remain in operation and offsets are available, a recent study by the Electric Power Research Institute found. The paper from the think tank, known as EPRI, suggests that if about 200 GW of flexible natural gas capacity remains on the grid past 2035, the country would need to deploy about 1,000 GW of new renewable and nuclear generation over the next 13 years — down from 1,300 GW if all natural gas plants were idled. About 44 GW would come from plants equipped with carbon capture, the rest from unabated plants using offsets from direct air capture or carbon capture for blue hydrogen. The study could bolster utility arguments that some natural gas, including new plants, will be needed as the sector pushes toward net-zero emissions. But the EPRI scenario comes with a big caveat: Nascent investments in carbon capture on natural gas-fired power plants and geologic sequestration, known as CCS, would need to ramp up at a dizzying speed and advance beyond the early pilot stage where most such projects are today. "There's no reason, technically, why it can't move quickly," said John Thompson, technology and markets director at Clean Air Task Force, a group supportive of the technology. "People have been doing gas capture for a long time, they just haven't done it at this scale." The first few projects will be slow, with investments picking up after 2030 as the traditionally conservative utility industry watches for lessons learned, Thompson predicted. Lenders must become more familiar with the technology, permitting agencies will initially need more time to ensure pipeline and storage projects are safe, and developers may want to conduct extra studies. "There are real-life constraints that slow things down that tend to disappear with time," Thompson said. "I'm optimistic." The EPRI paper, published Aug. 12 in the journal Nature Communications, is one of the first peer-reviewed studies to assess what role natural gas-fired power generation could play in the decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector. The analysis concluded that even if natural gas remained a part of the mix in a net-zero emissions economy, it would account for less than 20% of generation, depending on regional differences. By comparison, solar and wind would make up between 52% and 66% of generation in the EPRI net-zero scenario. Uncertainties associated with carbon capture and sequestration can make modeling difficult, said John Bistline, a co-author of the EPRI paper. "Things like siting and permitting of first-of-a-kind projects, policy uncertainty, all those things could be impactful as we think about the role of gas," Bistline said in an interview. "The dynamics of technological change are obviously very, very complex."
Maine Supreme Court revives contentious transmission project - Maine’s highest court ruled today that a 2021 ballot initiative seeking to block construction of a 145-mile transmission line was unconstitutional, potentially reviving efforts to build a high-profile project that would carry Canadian hydropower to New EnglandIn a 39-page ruling, five justices of the Maine Supreme Judicial Court said the ballot measure could not retroactively ban New England Clean Energy Connect, or NECEC as the project is known. They noted the proposed transmission line had received a certificate of public convenience and necessity from state utility regulators. But in a legal twist, the justices remanded the case to a lower court to determine whether the project’s developer, Avangrid Inc., had started construction of the line in “good faith” of its permits.The provision to retroactively limit the project “would infringe on NECEC’s constitutionally-protected vested rights if NECEC can demonstrate by a preponderance of the evidence that it engaged in substantial construction of the Project in good-faith reliance on the authority granted by the CPCN before Maine voters approved the initiated bill,” the court wrote.The decision results in continued legal uncertainty for the line, which would carry hydropower from Canada to New England. The project’s proponents argue that the line is essential to decarbonizing New England’s power grid by complementing the build-out of offshore wind and solar. Its opponents contend that it would damage a unique ecosystem by cutting a transmission corridor through the Maine woods, distort the region’s power market and deliver few of the promised emission benefits. In 2021, Maine voters overwhelmingly passed a ballot initiative that sought to retroactively ban construction of high-voltage transmission lines in the Upper Kennebec Region and subject other transmission projects to legislative approval. The vote halted work on NECEC and prompted Avangrid to file a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the referendum.
Rural Energy Is Especially Dirty and in Debt. Enter the Inflation Reduction Act. - Last week, a certain segment of academic economists lost their mind as the White House announced it would knock $10,000 off individual student loan debts, or $20,000 if borrowers are Pell Grant recipients. But another type of recently passed debt relief has attracted comparatively less attention and ire. Rural electric co-operatives—a living legacy of the New Deal’s efforts to bring power to the 90 percent of rural communities that still lacked it in the 1930s—will soon be able to take advantage of a new $9.7 billion program included in the Inflation Reduction Act that will help them finance a clean energy transition, escaping onerous debts that have kept many co-ops from getting off coal. Their newfound access to renewable energy tax credits—also furnished by the IRA—could be a game-changer, bringing more renewables to the 42 million who get their electricity from power providers they own. Altogether, co-ops are estimated to be on the hook for about $100 billionin outstanding debt. Roughly $45 billion of that is held by the Agriculture Department’s Rural Utilities Service, according to an analysis of Freedom of Information Act documents obtained by campaigners. The RUS loans money to generation and transmission co-operatives, or G&Ts—themselves owned by co-ops that distribute power in their regions—to finance new power plants. Documenting the rest is difficult given a lack of transparency from co-ops, financial institutions, and the USDA. Much of it is believed to be held by co-operative banks, including the National Rural Electric Utilities Cooperative Financing Corporation and CoBank (according to their own disclosures in annual reports), as well as outside banks where some co-ops have refinanced their debts. Distribution co-ops can also enter into long-term purchasing agreements with power providers that lock them into buying a certain kind of power for a certain amount of time and money. In some cases these debts are enormous. The Eastern Kentucky Power Cooperative, for instance—a G&T serving 16 distribution co-ops across 87 counties—forks over the equivalent of $600,0000 in debt service per day, much of which is for two coal plants that aren’t scheduled to shut down until the 2030s and 2050s. As coal continues to decline and more coal-fired power plants become unprofitable to operate, such plants risk becoming a blight on co-op balance sheets. Co-ops rely more on coal than other power providers. In 2020, co-ops sourced 28 percent of their electricity from coal, compared to the 19 percent national average, according to the Energy Information Agency. Under the IRA, co-ops will be able to apply to the USDA for grants, forgivable loans, and other financing tools to bring down greenhouse gas emissions, with each individual grant worth no more than 10 percent of the total available pool. “The scale of the problem is much larger than a $10 billion program can really get at, but it’s a great down payment,” said Erik Hatlestad, energy democracy director at CURE Minnesota. He’s involved in organizing the Rural Power Coalition, an alliance of some 200 groups that helped push the deal forward as relative newcomers to federal policy work. Co-ops’ inclusion in the IRA is the product of years of pressure, starting most proximately with a 2019 report Hatlestad co-authored on co-op debt and financing with Katie Rock and Liz Veazey, both active in organizing co-op member-owners. Following the report’s release, they circulated a sign-on letter with seven demands, including $100 billion for co-op debt relief and a moratorium on utility shut-offs.
To excavate or not to excavate: With toxic coal ash, that is the question --Eighty-eight-year-old Hilda Barg hunched her shoulders and rested her forearms on her hardwood dining table, talking fiercely about coal ash contamination in her neighborhood. Barg, a lifelong resident and former supervisor of Prince William County, Virginia, is leading a local fight against how Dominion Energy — the state’s largest electric utility — is dealing with toxic coal ash at its Possum Point plant 3 miles from Barg’s home. “I’m old — I won’t be around long,” Barg said. “But I want our children to have clean water and not have contaminants in their backyard.” Perhaps ironically, the Dominion plan Barg is railing against is often considered to be the safest way for companies to deal with coal ash. Dominion plans to remove coal ash from pits, where it risks contaminating groundwater, and store it in a lined landfill on the same site. This avoids transporting the ash through communities. But Barg and her neighbors say they’ve dealt with the ash for long enough, and they want it gone. Barg’s son Larry Waite has a supply of bottled water delivered to his house every week or two, since his private well was found to be contaminated, likely as a result of nearby coal ash. Possum Point stopped burning coal in 2003, but like hundreds of sites nationwide, it still has tons of residual toxic coal ash sitting in pits next to the plant, near where the 14-mile-long Quantico Creek meets the Potomac River. Testing by Prince William County officials found lead and boron above limits considered safe in wells at two homes near the coal ash, according to official documents. Power companies are obligated under the 2015 federal coal ash rule to monitor groundwater and decide how to close their coal ash ponds. In most cases, companies have proposed to close the coal ash repositories in place, often leaving coal ash in contact with earth and groundwater. Environmental groups advocate for removing the ash and putting it in lined landfills. Legislation and legal settlements in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina have led utility companies to agree to excavate hundreds of millions of tons of ash and place it in safer, lined landfills — as Dominion is doing at Possum Point. The excavation in these states is considered a historic undertaking, and a possible model for states like Ohio and Indiana where companies are planning to leave millions of tons of coal ash in place despite evidence of groundwater contamination. However, even where excavation is planned, many communities — like Possum Point — still have concerns about groundwater contamination and the harmful impacts of the removal. In Memphis, for example, residents are furious that coal ash from a nearby power plant is being moved to a landfill also in their community. Residents in Uniontown, Alabama, and Pickens County, South Carolina, are among others that stridently oppose local landfills storing coal ash.
Reuse can divert coal ash from landfills, but challenges remain - The amount of coal ash in the United States is hard to fathom. There are over 700 impoundments holding more than 2 billion cubic yards of ash — enough to cover the entire state of Pennsylvania one-half inch deep. Coal ash includes heavy metals like chromium, arsenic and selenium — linked to higher rates of cancer and other diseases — that can leach into groundwater. Environmental Protection Agency rules adopted in response to a catastrophic ash spillin Kingston, Tennessee, require companies to follow strict disposal procedures or divert ash to beneficial use. This process recycles ash as building material or structural fill. Coal ash can replace cement as a key ingredient in concrete, and it can be used to build roads and foundations.Reusing ash in this way, known as “beneficial reuse,” is regarded by many environmentalists, regulators and industry sources as preferable to storage in landfills. Currently, about three-fifths of coal ash produced each year is reused, and there are efforts underway to dry out and reuse some of the ash currently sitting in landfills, though significant cost and technical barriers remain and companies are often resistant to this option.“The best solution to disposal problems is to quit throwing it away,” said John Ward, chair of Citizens for Recycling First and executive director of the National Coal Transportation Association.
Fear of blackouts sways California lawmakers on nuclear power plant extension - — California lawmakers agreed early Thursday to postpone the planned closure of the state’s last nuclear power plant, accepting a divisive plan proposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom as part of a broad energy package pushed through in the final days of the legislative session. In a session that extended past 1 a.m., lawmakers accepted the Newsom administration’s argument that the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, which was scheduled to close in 2025 and provides nearly 10 percent of the state’s power, must be allowed to stay online to prevent a shortage of power and avoid blackouts as California works to transition away from fossil fuels in the coming years. The larger energy package, including the future of Diablo Canyon, was the central focus of the administration at the end of the legislative session, reflecting the importance of the issue in a state where there is widespread support for action on climate policy but also a precarious power grid strained by intense heat waves and drought. “It says to the rest of the country, to other climate leaders or deniers or whoever they are, that California is insistent on hitting our clean energy goals, but at the same time not doing something foolish that will increase our reliance on dirty fuels and more costly fuel from other sources,” said state Sen. Bill Dodd (D-Napa), who co-authored the Diablo Canyon extension legislation, in an interview before the vote. Their vote took place against the backdrop of a punishing heat wave expected to last through the Labor Day weekend that has prompted state officials to urge people to conserve energy to prevent blackouts. Any future blackouts that resulted from the closure of the nuclear plant would be blamed on the Democrats, one lawmaker warned. “So the last time we didn’t keep the lights on, at the beginning of the century, in 2002, we lost a governor,” said Assemblymember Bill Quirk (D-Hayward). “So far, I’m hearing all the Republicans come up, but you know who’s going to get blamed for this, if it doesn’t happen? It’s us Dems, and it should be. We’re in control in the Capitol. We will get blamed if the lights go out.” Some environmental groups fought the extension, citing nuclear safety, and Assembly Democrats circulated a counterproposal to spend the money on building out more solar and wind instead. But a supermajority of both chambers — the required threshold for a bill to go into effect immediately — ultimately agreed to loan Pacific Gas & Electric $1.4 billion to kickstart the five-year extension into 2030, and Assembly Republicans came out in support. The loan is expected to be repaid with federal funding.
Supreme Court climate ruling could impact nuclear waste case -(AP) — The Supreme Court’s landmark ruling on climate change could have implications for a range of other issues, including a case involving nuclear waste storage and a proposal requiring companies to disclose how climate risk affects their businesses, advocates across the political spectrum say.Two Republican attorneys general — including the West Virginia official who successfully challenged Environmental Protection Agency rules restricting greenhouse gas emissions by power plants — say the Supreme Court ruling applies more broadly to other executive branch actions. And in at least one case, environmental groups appear to agree.Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton says the court’s June 30 ruling, which limited how the nation’s main anti-air pollution law can be used to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, can be used to block a federal license issued to a private facility to store radioactive waste in his state. West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, fresh off a win in the climate case, says he will challenge a proposal by the Securities and Exchange Commission to require companies to report on their climate risks, including those related to the physical impact of storms, drought and higher temperatures caused by global warming.The court’s 6-3 ruling said EPA violated the “major questions” doctrine in regulating greenhouse gas emissions by power plants. The decision held that Congress must speak with specificity when it wants to give an agency authority to regulate on an issue of major national significance.Several conservative justices have criticized what they see as the unchecked power of federal agencies.Some legal experts suggested the Supreme Court ruling also might be cited in challenges to President Joe Biden’s announcement last week that the administration would provide $10,000 in student debt cancellation for millions of Americans — and up to $10,000 more for those with the greatest financial need. Jay Duffy, an attorney for the environmental group Clean Air Task Force, said the ruling in the West Virginia case “set an exceptionally high bar” for executive-branch agencies to act on a variety of issues without triggering the major questions doctrine.
FirstEnergy CEO Stephen Strah emailed about "under the radar" House Bill 6 provision that cost customers millions of dollars - FirstEnergy CEO Steven Strah, who rose through the ranks to replace the company’s previous CEO amid the fallout from federal corruption charges related to FirstEnergy’s efforts to pass a 2019 Ohio law, emailed with company lobbyists that year about an “under the radar” provision of the same legislation that ended up costing Ohio ratepayers millions of dollars. Strah was FirstEnergy’s chief financial officer in 2019 when he sent and received the emails. He was promoted to company president in May of 2020 as part of a succession plan for then-CEO Charles Jones eventual retirement.Jones was terminated by FirstEnergy later that year, after the company received subpoenas as part of the federal criminal investigation that exploded into public view that summer. Strah was announced as the new acting CEO.When Strah was awarded the top job for the long-term in 2021, he said he would remain focused on “fostering a culture of uncompromising integrity and ethical behavior, starting from the top.” Donald T. Misheff, then company chairman, said Strah had already “taken meaningful steps to put FirstEnergy on the right path forward, including ensuring a renewed emphasis on compliance and transparency throughout the company…” The internal emails between Strah and company lobbyists who worked on HB 6 were first made public by the Ohio Consumers Counsel earlier this month as part of a motion seeking sign-off from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio on a subpoena to depose Strah. The emails are excerpted below:
Lorain County throws wrench in multi-million dollar tax settlement on NEXUS pipeline - Lorain County commissioners followed the advice of County Auditor Craig Snodgrass and voted to approve legislation that essentially blew up a tentative state tax property settlement with a natural gas company that affects 13 Ohio counties and could cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars. On the flip side, though, if Snodgrass is right, those counties could see tens of millions of dollars more flow into their coffers via property tax. Snodgrass will file an appeal of a July 6 agreement reached by the state’s tax commissioner and the owner of the NEXUS pipeline on the value of the Crapipeline. Appealing is a risk, but one that Snodgrass said he thinks is needed. The issue centers on the valuation of NEXUS pipeline, a natural gas line that runs through 256 miles of Ohio, and 13 counties, and has been the center of debate for three years. The state originally valued it at $1.6 billion before adjusting that figure to $1.2 billion after NEXUS filed what’s known as a valuation appeal. The higher the value of the gas line, the more money schools and other government agencies receive in funding from tax money collected in those areas where the gas line operates. The two sides worked out a settlement agreement valuing the pipeline at $950 million for tax year 2019, $946 million in tax year 2020; $934 million in tax year 2021 and the estimated value of $901 million for 2022. The county was expected to rake in $34 million in tax revenue from the gas line in its first five years of operation. But at the $950 million value, it would take in $7 million less in the same timeframe. Snodgrass said he was not comfortable with the deal. He said he wanted to know how the state and NEXUS determined the value of the pipeline. “We just aren’t getting enough information to find out if this is the right number,” Snodgrass said. To get those answers, he urged the commissioners to pass a resolution at a special Aug. 24 meeting allowing him to hire retain Sansoucy Associates, of Lancaster, N.H., “to provide valuation, valuation analysis, rebuttal, research and general consulting services with regards to the Nexus Gas Transmission Pipeline owned by DT Midstream and Enbridge.” The commissioners passed the resolution 2-1 with Commissioners Michelle Hung and Matt Lundy voting to hire Sansoucy and Dave Moore voting against it. By approving the hiring of Sansoucy, the terms and conditions of the settlement are voided, according to documents provided by NEXUS. Going forward, NEXUS will pursue market true value for the pipeline at a value of $615,695,340.
19 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Aug 22-28 | Marcellus Drilling News - Last week the three states with active Marcellus/Utica drilling, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, issued a collective 19 new drilling permits, down from 30 the week before. The top receiver of permits in PA was EQT (i.e. Rice Drilling), with five permits issued for the same well pad in Greene County. Range Resources and Inflection Energy each received two new permits. also: Allegheny County, Ascent Resources, Beaver County, Elk County, Encino Energy, EQT Corp, Greene County (PA), Guernsey County, Harrison County,Inflection Energy, Lycoming County, Marshall County, Range Resources Corp,Seneca Resources, Tug Hill Operating, Utica Resource Operating
Proposed Pennsylvania LNG Export Terminal in Talks to Commercialize Project - An East Coast LNG export terminal that would tap into vast amounts of feed gas from the Appalachian Basin is aiming to pre-file with federal regulators by the end of the year and reach a final investment decision by 2024. The 7.2 million metric tons/year (mmty) facility would be located at a yet-to-be-determined site along the Delaware River near Philadelphia. It could produce the first liquefied natural gas by 2028, said Franc James, founder and CEO of Penn America Energy Holdings LLC. James acknowledged, however, that the $6 billion-plus Penn LNG project faces an uphill battle in the Northeast, where environmental opposition has stymied energy infrastructure. “I’m from Pennsylvania, so that’s probably why I gravitated toward developing this project,” he told NGI. “We’re in a state, regardless of political party, that’s enjoyed a history of energy…We think if you build it in the Northeast, Pennsylvania is likely the only place to build a terminal.” The Philadelphia native, a former iron ore and copper mining executive, has been working on the project since 2015. James said his New York City-based company, which includes industry veterans, has moved beyond the proof of concept stage and is currently working on commercialization, permitting and engineering. Reached by phone last week just ahead of a trip to Europe to continue commercial discussions, James told NGI the company is in talks to supply up to 5 mmty of LNG. He said discussions are ongoing with two majors, an international trader and utilities. “We are a project size that is easily absorbed into demand,” James said. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a need for new natural gas supply and made the Penn LNG project competitive on its current timeline, he added. The company is currently working with Bechtel Corp. on engineering. James also said the 1.2 Bcf/d of feed gas the terminal would need can be easily supplied by the Texas Eastern Transmission Co. and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. interstate systems. The facility would only need to build a connector to those pipelines, James said. That would help Penn America avoid the kind of lengthy battles over larger systems in the region that have stopped pipeline projects altogether. Marcellus Shale Coalition President David Callahan said Penn LNG could complement the nation’s other two East Coast export facilities, Cove Point LNG in Maryland and the Elba Island terminal in Georgia. Penn LNG would be the largest of those facilities. The “location-advantaged” facility could also better connect European allies with abundant Appalachian shale gas, he said. The facility would also help to alleviate pipeline constraints in the basin, where natural gas production in the Marcellus and Utica shales is above 35 Bcf/d. EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice said recently that Appalachian pipeline capacity has “hit the wall.” EQT is the largest gas producer in the United States. The company launched an initiative earlier this year to promote U.S. LNG exports. It comes at a time when global buyers are looking to diversify supplies in a shift away from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. EQT wants to quadruple current U.S. LNG export capacity to 55 Bcf/d by 2030 to replace international coal and cut global emissions. While there are 20 LNG projects in various stages of development along the Gulf Coast, Appalachian pipeline constraints could make it difficult for some to be completed. As a result, Rice said EQT is working to “catalyze” East Coast LNG projects.
U.S. Ethane Production Seen Climbing 16% in 2022, Says EIA - Production of ethane, a natural gas liquid (NGL), should grow by about 9% in the United States during the second half of 2022 compared to first-half levels, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast. “Ethane is consumed almost exclusively as a feedstock in petrochemical plants known as steam crackers to produce ethylene, a precursor chemical for manufacturing many plastics and resins,” said authors of EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). New cracker plants to take in additional ethane volumes are in Pennsylvania and Texas. The analysis found that domestic ethane production has risen for the past five years and reached a monthly record of 2.5 million b/d in March. Since then, monthly ethane output has topped 2.4 million b/d, said researchers. Earlier this year, EIA said domestic ethane consumption has steadily increased for more than a decade. The latest STEO projected that average second-half U.S. ethane production would surpass 2.6 million b/d. “We expect that production in 2022 will exceed production in 2021 by 16%, or 340,000 b/d,” said analysts. EIA also reported that U.S. ethane prices since 2017 typically have “traded at a premium relative to natural gas prices, spurring natural gas plant operators to recover more ethane from raw natural gas streams.” The ethane premium held steady at $1.35/MMBtu during the first half of 2022, compared to 80 cents/MMBtu for full-year 2021, researchers said. That equated to “25% above the Henry Hub natural gas wholesale price, despite higher average natural gas prices,” they said. For 2023, EIA projected a nearly 7% increase in ethane production to about 2.7 million b/d “to support continued growth in U.S. consumption and exports. “Demand for ethane overseas as a petrochemical feedstock has been growing since 2015,” said analysts. “We forecast U.S. exports of ethane to continue to grow from about 350,000 b/d in the second quarter of 2022 to about 440,000 b/d in the fourth quarter. We expect ethane exports to rise to 460,000 b/d in 2023.”
Antero Prevails Against Corrupt Employee, Wins $12.9M at Trial | Marcellus Drilling News - Antero Resources is one of the largest drillers in the Marcellus/Utica (with major assets in West Virginia). The company is the fifth largest natgas producer in the country and the second largest LNG exporter. It’s also one of our favorite Marcellus/Utica drillers. As good and careful as companies like Antero are when hiring, sometimes there’s a rotten apple found in the barrel. Such was the case with a former employee who headed up the company’s operations in WV–where most of its drilling happens. The former employee took bribes and kickbacks from a vendor over a period of years (2012-2015), steering contracts to that vendor. The vendor’s performance was not as good as other competitors. At the end of years of litigation, Antero has finally been awarded compensation from a jury, and a bit extra from a judge, to make up for the actions of their rogue employee.
It’s a deal with the devil’: outrage in Appalachia over Manchin’s ‘vile’ pipeline plan -- Taking on the fossil fuel industry in West Virginia was always going to be a David v Goliath type battle, but after years of protests, lobbying and lawsuits, 68-year-old Becky Crabtree thought the community-led resistance had beaten the Mountain Valley pipeline (MVP) in a fair fight.So when news broke earlier in August that the state’s fossil-fuel friendly senator Joe Manchin had resurrected the beleaguered pipeline, Crabtree, a high school science teacher who teaches students about the climate crisis, felt “numb”.Manchin, a conservative Democrat who receives more campaign financing from the fossil fuel industry – including pipeline companies – than any other lawmaker in Congress, had agreed to back his party’s historic climate legislation before the crucial midterm elections. But only after he negotiated a side-deal to fast-track the MVP. “It’s the unfairness that makes me so angry. It’s a deal with the devil,” said Crabtree, 68, who owns a 30-acre sheep farm in Lindside, Monroe county.The deal is a sweet one for the pipeline’s supporters. Democratic leaders agreed to advance separate legislation in September that would “require the relevant agencies to take all necessary actions to permit the construction and operation of the MVP and give the DC circuit jurisdiction over any further litigation”.This could help the pipeline company circumvent judges who have suspended construction and overturned permits over environmental concerns, and have future legal cases heard in an appeals court in Washington, which is considered more favourable to developers.It’s part of a broader set of concessions negotiated by Manchin to diminish environmental protections and expedite permits and construction of pipelines and other energy infrastructure, limiting legal challenges by concerned communities and environmental groups.It also mandates new oil and gas drilling deals in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico – places that environmentalists have also fought in court to preserve. Any public lands given over to solar and wind developments must be accompanied by millions of acres handed to oil and gas – tying the US to planet-heating energy projects for decades. Brett Hartl, a campaigner at the Center for Biological Diversity, said the side-deal was a “vile tribute” to the fossil fuel industry. “These companies are wrecking our climate and raking in record profits, and more federal help is the last thing they deserve.”
BP Whiting shutdown: EPA waives fuel rule in Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and IN after Indiana refinery fire - -- The Environmental Protection Agency temporarily lifted a federal rule for fuel sales in four states in response to a fire last week at an Indiana oil refinery that could affect prices and supply.The emergency waiver was granted Saturday for Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin, EPA Administrator Michael Regan said. In a letter to state officials, Regan said the agency determined the waiver is necessary "to minimize or prevent disruption of an adequate supply of gasoline to consumers."The waiver lifts a Clear Air Act requirement that lower-volatility gasoline be sold in the states during summer months to limit ozone pollution. It is in effect until Sept. 15, the EPA said.BP said its refinery in Whiting, Indiana, experienced an electrical fire Wednesday. No one was hurt, and the fire was put out, but it caused a loss of utilities in other parts of the refinery, forcing at least a partial shutdown. The refinery is located along Lake Michigan's shoreline about 15 miles southeast of Chicago, according to the company.The company said Sunday it is working toward a "phased restart of the refinery," but no date was given.Governors in all four states requested the EPA waivers, according to the EPA's letter. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's office said the refinery provides about 20% to 25% of the gasoline, jet fuel and diesel used by Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Illinois. BP spokeswoman Christina Audisho said the company was working with local and state agencies and was still assessing when affected units can restart.
Holcomb signs executive order to avoid rising gas prices — Gov. Eric Holcomb signed an executive order Monday that suspends some regulations in an effort to minimize any disruptions at the pump after an Indiana oil refinery caught fire last week. There was an electrical fire at the BP refinery in Whiting, Indiana, on Aug. 24, which caused apartial shutdown at the plant. The refinery provides about 20% to 25% of the gasoline, jet fuel and diesel used by Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Leaders fear the fire could affect gas prices and supply. That's why Holcomb signed an executive order to temporarily suspend regulations regarding vapor pressure requirements on fuel standards. The order also lifts restrictions on hours of service relating to motor carriers and drivers transporting fuels.Holcomb's office said the temporary suspensions are meant to expedite the refining and transporting of fuel through Indiana.Similarly, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer took action over the weekend by declaring an energy emergency in Michigan and lifting laws and regulations to increase the state's fuel supply. Also, the Environmental Protection Agency on Saturday temporarily lifted a federal rule for fuel sales in the four affected states. All these efforts are to avoid sky-high gas prices or a lack of fuel at the pump. Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, said Hoosiers are already seeing prices increase."We did, within the last hour, see some stations reset to the same price they went up to two weeks ago," said De Haan. "Looks like a lot of stations in Indiana are going up to $3.99."
BP’s Indiana Refinery Restarts After Fire -BP Plc’s Whiting, Indiana refinery has restarted production after being idled last week due to an electrical fire, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources close to operations.The 435,000 barrel-per-day refinery, the largest in the Midwest, caught fire last week, leading to the shutdown of several units and a declaration of emergency across four states.The fire impacted supplies of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the Midwest, with Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin obtaining some 25% of their fuel supply from this facility.The outage led to a temporary lifting of a summer restriction on fuel sales–intended to head off larger shortages–by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Whiting refinery can produce 10 million gallons (~277,000 barrels) of gasoline, 4 million gallons of diesel, and 2 million gallons of jet fuel each day; it is capable of producing enough gasoline every day to support the daily travel of 7 million cars, the refinery factsheet claims.Markets were concerned that an outage at a key refinery such as Whiting could put upward pressure on gasoline prices that have been trending downward for weeks. Michigan, one of the four states affected, is already set to experience the highest Labor Day gas prices since 2012, the Detroit Free Press reports. This is despite the fact that average gas prices in the state have fallen by 49 cents per gallon over the past 30 days, with decreases recorded for 10 consecutive weeks.The national average per gallon of gasoline in the United States was down to $3.481 on Wednesday, according to AAA, compared with the year-ago average of $3.159. Concerns remain that gasoline prices will rise again, with Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm saying that fuel exports are affecting domestic supplies, with gasoline supplies on the East Coast at their lowest level in almost 10 years.
U.S. energy secretary urges refiners not to increase fuel exports (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Secretary urged domestic oil refiners this month to not further increase exports of fuels like gasoline and diesel, adding that the Biden administration may need to consider taking action if the plants do not build inventories. U.S. refiners have boosted oil product exports this month as domestic crude oil production rose and global fuel demand continued to recover. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, in a letter sent Aug. 18, urged seven refiners including Valero, ExxonMobil and Chevron to build supplies of fuels as the United States enters peak hurricane season. "Given the historic level of U.S. refined product exports, I again urge you to focus in the near term on building inventories in the United States, rather than selling down current stocks and further increasing exports," Granholm said in the letter sent to refiners, a copy of which was seen by Reuters. High U.S. oil product exports have been a concern for the administration of President Joe Biden this summer as gasoline prices briefly hit a record of $5 a gallon, helping drive inflation to 40-year highs. Gasoline prices have since fallen to about $3.86 per gallon. Federal weather forecasters have projected an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, which can be a perilous time for refineries. Still-high gasoline prices remain a threat to Biden's fellow Democrats ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections, when they hope to retain control of both chambers of Congress. Granholm said the administration is talking with state officials along the East Coast, where gasoline levels are at their lowest in nearly a decade. It is putting the gasoline and heating oil reserves in the U.S. Northeast, which hold 2 million barrels of fuel, on "active standby" for potential release, and preparing other emergency contingency actions, she said. The administration hopes that companies will "proactively address this need" of building inventories, she said. If that does not happen, the administration "will need to consider additional federal requirements or other emergency measures," Granholm added, without providing details.
Energy secretary calls on US refiners to limit exports ahead of hurricane season - Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm called on major U.S. oil refiners to build up capacity and reduce exports of refined products ahead of the winter in a letter shared with The Hill. In the letter, written last week, Granholm noted the reduced availability of diesel inventories along the East Coast, which are nearly 50 percent below the five-year average. Refined product exports are at a record high. A likely above-average hurricane season, followed shortly by the winter heating season, is likely to compound demand in the northeast. “Given the historic level of U.S. refined product exports, I again urge you to focus in the near term on building inventories in the United States, rather than selling down current stocks and further increasing exports,” Granholm wrote, saying that such a buildup would be an alternative to emergency measures such as releases from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve. The letter was reported first by The Wall Street Journal. The paper accused Granholm in a Wednesday editorial of attempting to strong-arm the energy industry and abandoning European nations weaning themselves off Russian imports. An Energy Department official sharply disputed this characterization, saying “as we get closer and closer to peak hurricane season right now, and we’re running our internal models, we are calling on [the industry] to be more proactive.” “We understand that they do have plans in place for their refineries and getting them back up and running,” the official added, “but we also want them as they’re increasing their exports to also look at the bigger picture … and making sure they’re making the right decisions to ensure there’s physical supply for American consumers and our allies.”
Appeals court rules two Trump administration Gulf lease sales unlawful -A federal appeals court on Tuesday ruled two Trump-era Interior Department oil leases in the Gulf of Mexico were unlawful. In the ruling, Judge Gregory C. Katsas of the Washington, D.C., Court of Appeals found the department in 2018 leased more than 150 million acres for oil exploration without properly analyzing the risk under the National Environmental Policy Act. The lease sales, 250 and 251, were among 11 proposed by the department in its 2017 five-year plan. In a lawsuit following the sales, a coalition of environmental groups argued the Trump administration’s evaluation had erroneously presumed adequate endorsement of safety and environmental procedures in the Gulf. A D.C. court sided with the Interior Department on April 20, prompting an appeal by the plaintiffs.Plaintiffs in the case include Earthjustice, the Sierra Club and the Center for Biological Diversity. In his ruling, Katsas sided with the plaintiffs, stating that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) failed to consider whether the federal Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement’s (BSEE) “work was in fact rigorous, despite some evidence that it was not” when it came to inspection and enforcement. He noted a Government Accountability Office report that said BSEE procedures are outdated and inconsistent. “We agree with the environmental groups that BOEM’s failure to address the report was arbitrary. To engage in reasoned decision-making, an agency must respond to ‘objections that on their face seem legitimate,’” he wrote. Katsas agreed with the Interior Department on other arguments, rejecting the plaintiffs’ claims that the BOEM failed to consider possible rule changes.
Illinois plans to plug hundreds of abandoned wells - The U.S. Department of Interior awarded an $560 million to 24 states to begin plugging and remediating more than 10,000 high-priority well sites across the country, including $25 million to help support Illinois’ remediation efforts. “Orphaned oil and gas wells are environmental and safety hazards that threaten the wellbeing of our rural communities,” said Governor J.B. Pritzker. “We appreciate that the Biden Administration approved our efforts to award Illinois significant funding to cap and reclaim these wells — safeguarding Illinois families, generating good-paying union jobs, and protecting our environment from disastrous methane leaks in the process. These are the kind of investments that create a healthier, more sustainable state and nation.”“As chair of the Governor’s Rural Affairs Council, I know our rural communities deserve effective solutions that address the unique issues impacting these vibrant regions of Illinois. The federal Orphaned Well Program provides a step forward by taking action on abandoned oil and gas wells that can be hazardous to health and safety,” said Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton. “From creating economic opportunities to combat pollution to safeguarding the health of communities, this $25 million in grant funding will take us far in protecting the environment and the people that make southern Illinois and other impacted areas so great.IDNR’s Office of Oil and Gas Resource Management will oversee the work in Illinois. State officials are hopeful the efforts will free up state funds for other needs.
US LNG export terminals stage production push as European gas prices top $100/MMBtu - Record global gas prices, now trading as high as $100/MMBtu in onshore European markets, are putting pressure on US LNG export terminals to step up production, pushing feedgas demand this week to its highest since early July. On Aug. 25, total gas demand from US export terminals edged up to over 11.5 Bcf/d, marking its highest level since July 1. The single-day demand high is no fluke — over the past week, feedgas demand has trended just shy of that level, averaging nearly 11.2 Bcf/d, data from Platts Analytics shows. The continued ramp up of production at Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass terminal has been a key driver behind recent gains in US liquefaction activity, with flows to the still-commissioning 10 million mt/year terminal estimated at a record-high 1.6 Bcf/d on Aug. 26. While the June 8 shut-in of production at Freeport LNG cut US export capacity by some 2 Bcf/d, or about 15%, this summer, the US’ other six operational terminals are making a push to maximize output — and for good reason. On Aug. 26, spot LNG import prices in Northwest Europe surged to their highest on record for the third consecutive day, this time hitting $74.49/MMBtu. In East Asia, Platts benchmark JKM import price climbed to over $71/MMBtu on Aug. 25, before easing back to the mid-$66 range on Aug. 26. At current levels, JKM prices are at their highest since the single-day price of $84.76 was recorded in early March, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows. In the US market, the Platts Gulf Coast Marker for FOB cargoes loading 30-60 days forward was assessed at $73.35/MMBtu Aug. 26, up $6.10/MMBtu on the day to a new high. The run up in global prices, which have surged this week, comes as the European gas market grapples with growing supply uncertainty. Most recently, Norwegian transmission system operator, Gassco, advised European end-users of a planned maintenance on the Karsto, Oseberg and Kristin gas assets, from Aug. 26- Sept. 7, Platts reported previously. The maintenance cuts Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe by some 23.5 million cu m/d, or about 800 MMcf/d.
Cheniere Energy Expanding Corpus Christi Complex - The biggest U.S. exporter of liquefied natural gas Cheniere Energy has revealed its plans to expand its complex on the Texas coast. Cheniere said submitted a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) requesting a pre-filing review for the proposed Corpus Christi Liquefaction Midscale Trains 8 & 9 Project. According to the company, the proposed project would expand the previously approved liquefaction project and Stage 3 project facilities. Namely, the company is seeking to add two midscale production lines – otherwise known as trains – as well as a 220,000-cubic-meter storage tank at its Corpus Christi plant. It also wants to add a refrigerant storage facility, appurtenant connecting facilities and piping, and an increase in Corpus Christi’s previously approved ship loading rates. Cheniere plans to file a formal application with the agency in February 2023 upon completion and approval of the commission’s mandatory 6-month pre-filing process. Construction would begin in October 2024 with a projected in-service date during the second half of 2031. This request to the FERC comes some two months after the company reached a final investment decision for the Stage 3 expansion of Corpus Christi LNG. Stage 3 is supposed to be a 10+ million ton per annum project that consists of up to seven midscale trains bringing Corpus Christi’s total nominal capacity to approximately 25 mtpa. Cheniere’s 1,000+ acre Corpus Christi Liquefaction facility is in the Corpus Christi Bay in San Patricio County, Texas, where energy infrastructure and estuaries coexist. It currently has three fully operational liquefaction units, all of which were completed ahead of schedule and within budget, and each train is designed to produce around 5 million tons per annum of LNG. The first two LNG trains, along with the first two LNG tanks and wharf facilities, were completed in August 2019, while the third train and tank and a second berth were finished in March 2021. It is worth noting that Cheniere signed six LNG supply deals since May as Europe and Asia continue to compete for tight global supplies.
U.S. natgas futures fall over 3% as European prices slip (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped more than 3% on Tuesday, tracking a retreat in European rates, with prices hitting a two-week low as supplies in the United States were seen rising. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for October delivery fell 29.4 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $9.042 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), having dropped to their lowest level since Aug. 16 earlier in the session. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday, its highest since Aug. 8. "The production and overall supply increased not only from natural gas production, but also from slightly higher Canadian imports," "When you couple the current weather forecast, which did get a little warmer over the weekend, with the supply gains and then the European gas price sell-off, I think it's just resulted in a little bit of profit taking." British and Dutch wholesale gas prices eased as Europe almost reached its target of gas inventories being 80% full. Gas was trading around $81 per mmBtu in Europe and $69 in Asia. Europe was also gearing for a scheduled outage on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, for three days from Aug. 31 to Sep. 2, with market players concerned flows might not resume. Meanwhile, the restart delay at the fire-hit Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, leaves more fuel in the United States for utilities to refill storage.
Natural Gas Futures Rally Continues as Traders Brush Off Bearish Storage Data - After falling within pennies of the $9 mark early Thursday, bulls paraded in and delivered a swift kick to natural gas futures prices. Storage data confirming looser balances sapped momentum only briefly, with the October Nymex gas futures contract settling at $9.262/MMBtu, up 13.5 cents on the day. November futures picked up 14.1 cents to $9.330. Spot gas was mostly higher, with continued heat and a stressed electric grid in California driving up prices. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 25.5 cents to $9.135. “The market has certainly been very resilient, with any bearish data being shrugged off rather easily,” NatGasWeather said of Thursday’s Nymex futures price action. The price hike occurred despite government storage data that showed continued tightening of the inventory gap to historical levels. The Energy Information Administration said 61 Bcf was injected into natural gas storage inventories for the week ending Aug. 26, on the higher side of expectations ahead of the report. Respondents to major surveys projected stocks to rise anywhere from 53 Bcf to 64 Bcf. By comparison, EIA recorded a 21 Bcf injection for the year-earlier period, and the five-year average injection is 46 Bcf. “A tad looser, especially with low wind,” said a participant on Enelyst of the EIA’s 61 Bcf build. Enelyst managing director Het Shah said wind generation averaged a paltry 23,568 MWh for the week ending Aug. 26. Strong production also likely aided in the above-average injection, with estimates near 99 Bcf/d of output for the reference period. Broken down by region, the Midwest led with a plump 33 Bcf increase in stocks, according to EIA. The East added 16 Bcf to inventories, while the South Central added 10 Bcf. This included a 9 Bcf increase in nonsalt facilities and a 1 Bcf rise in salts. Mountain inventories were up by 4 Bcf, while Pacific stocks slipped by 2 Bcf. Total working gas in storage as of Aug. 26 stood at 2,640 Bcf, which is 228 Bcf below last year at this time and 338 Bcf below the five-year average, EIA said. Looking ahead to the agency’s next inventory report, Enelyst participants were looking for an injection in the 50s Bcf to low 60s Bcf. Shah noted that wind generation was poised to average 35,937 MWh for the current week, which should help keep power burns in check and allow more gas to flow into storage. An injection of 60 Bcf in the next EIA report would compare with a 48 Bcf injection for the same week last year and a 65 Bcf five-year average build.
Natural Gas Futures Collapse on Stronger Production, Storage Optimism; Cash Slides - It was a bloodbath in the natural gas market at the close of the week, with production figures showing only a modest dip day/day and holding near highs. With the most intense heat throughout the first half of the month relegated out West, the October Nymex gas futures contract plunged 47.6 cents Friday to settle at $8.786/MMBtu. November futures fell 48.0 cents to $8.850. Spot gas prices also tumbled ahead of the extended Labor Day holiday weekend. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. slid 53.0 cents to $8.605. Notwithstanding Friday’s nosedive throughout the Nymex futures curve – particularly for the winter months – market observers didn’t appear to be convinced the price move indicates a change in behavior among traders. Prices have been erratic throughout the summer, and there is still plenty for bulls to pounce on when it comes to supply/demand balances. However, traders may be looking at the latest storage inventory data as verification that as the shoulder season gets underway, loosening already is taking place and further easing is likely. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said inventories for the week ending Aug. 26 rose by a larger-than-normal 61 Bcf, lifting stocks to 2,640 Bcf. Notably, this is still 228 Bcf below year-earlier levels and 338 Bcf below the five-year average. Though double-digit percentage deficits exist in all regions but the Midwest, South Central stocks are precariously low. Salt inventories sit nearly 23% below the five-year average. However, the Schork Group said as the likelihood of extreme cooling in the northern states fades, salt stocks should climb on a consistent basis in the coming weeks. Overall injections, according to Schork analysts, have been rather strong. They said at this point in the summer, the market generally wants to see a refill of at least 1.134 Tcf. Season-to-date, the market has added 1.258 Tcf. “However, as we’ve been saying all summer long, the strong pace of injections is not strong enough,” the Schork team said. “These injections notwithstanding, time is running out for the market to get molecules into the ground.” For example, the EIA is projecting inventories at the end of October to reach 3.433 Tcf. This means that from now until the start of the heating season, which typically begins in the second week of November, the market needs to inject 793 Bcf. The three largest injections from this point are 920 Bcf in 2014, 854 Bcf in 2011 and 797 Bcf in 2015. “So, a 793 Bcf injection is not unheard of,” the Schork analysts said. “However, because of time decay, the odds are long.” Meanwhile, NatGasWeather said heat is expected to continue a bit longer.
Texas adopts new natural gas weatherization rules 18 months after grid crash -A year and a half after a severe winter storm nearly collapsed the state’s power grid, Texas oil and gas regulators approved new rules Tuesday that would require natural gas companies to properly prepare their equipment for extreme weather. The rules will require oil and gas companies to be able to continue operating during a weather emergency, but they do not specify the standards the agency’s inspectors will use to measure readiness. They also require companies to submit annual reports to the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the state’s massive oil and gas sector, outlining what they have done to ensure their facilities won’t fail during weather emergencies. If companies do not comply with the new rules, they would be subject to a minimum $5,000 fine and a maximum fine of $1 million. Critics are skeptical about whether the Railroad Commission can prevent another catastrophe like the one that struck Texas in February 2021, when extended freezing temperatures shut down natural gas facilities and power plants, which rely on each other to keep electricity flowing. The resulting blackouts left millions of Texans without power for days, and hundreds of people died in the winter storm.A Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report on the Texas freeze released in late 2021 found that 31.4% of unplanned generation outages were due to fuel issues — and 87% of those fuel issues were related to natural gas.The Texas Competitive Power Advocates, which represents electricity generators, said the fine was not a strong punishment. “Penalties should serve as an incentive to avoid violations, not as a minor inconvenience,” the group said in comments submitted to the Railroad Commission.
DOI Awards Initial $560MM to Begin Plugging Orphaned Wells -- The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) has announced that it has awarded an initial $560 million from President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to 24 states to begin work to plug, cap and reclaim orphaned oil and gas wells. Of the states eligible for funding, 22 have been allocated $25 million each in initial state grants, while Arkansas and Mississippi will receive $5 million each to support methane measurement and begin plugging wells, the DOI highlighted. According to a DOI list reflecting the number of wells identified for plugging and remediation with initial grant funding by each eligible state, Kansas has the most at 2,352, followed by Kentucky (1,000 – 2,000), and Oklahoma (1,196). The number of wells varies based on the remoteness, well depth, site conditions and previous activity at the well site as well as other state considerations, such as the number of existing staff and whether the state has preexisting well plugging contracts, the DOI noted. The investment is part of an overall $1.15 billion in phase one funding announced in January by the DOI for states to plug and remediate orphaned wells. States will receive additional formula funding dollars in the coming months, the DOI stated, adding that, in addition, an initial $33 million was recently allocated to plug 277 wells on federal public lands. According to the DOI, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law delivers the largest investment in tackling legacy pollution in American history, “including through a $4.7 billion investment to plug orphaned wells”.
Exxon agrees to divest Arkansas shale gas assets to Flywheel Energy - Exxon Mobil has agreed to sell its oil and gas producer natural gas properties in Arkansas to Flywheel Energy, an Exxon spokesperson told Reuters. The agreement has been signed by XTO Energy, a subsidiary of Exxon, with Kayne Anderson Private Energy Income Funds-backed Flywheel. The transaction includes around 5,000 natural gas wells including around 4,100 non-operated and 850 operated, as well as related pipeline and processing properties that cover an area of around 381,000 acres. The sale of Fayetteville Shale assets forms part of the US energy company’s efforts to focus on more lucrative prospects.
Exxon sells Fayetteville Shale assets; Arkansas severance tax revenue rising - Texas-based ExxonMobil Corp. recently sold its natural gas properties in the Fayetteville Shale play in north-central Arkansas to Oklahoma City-based Flywheel Energy LLC, according to Reuters. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Late Friday (Aug. 26), Reuters reported the transaction included about 5,000 natural gas wells and pipeline and processing properties, comprising about 381,000 acres. Among the wells, 850 operated. Exxon subsidiary XTO Energy signed the agreement with Flywheel Energy, which is backed by Kayne Anderson Private Energy Income Funds.According to Reuters, the sale of Exxon’s assets in the Fayetteville Shale “brings the largest U.S. producer closer to a goal of selling $15 billion in non-core properties to focus on more lucrative prospects.” The deal is expected to close by the end of October. XTO Energy had acquired the Fayetteville Shale assets for $650 million amid a shale boom in 2010.According to Flywheel Energy’s website, it operates “the largest position” in the Fayetteville Shale. In 2018, Flywheel Energy entered the Arkansas market when it acquired the Fayetteville Shale assets of Houston-based Southwestern Energy Co. in a cash-and-debt deal worth nearly $2.4 billion. That deal was expected to help Southwestern Energy capture greater returns in its higher-margin Appalachia assets. The company was the top leaseholder in the Fayetteville Shale with more than 4,000 producing wells on over 915,000 acres.Flywheel’s move comes as natural gas prices have significantly recovered from several years of low prices that stymied production and pushed industry consolidation. Wednesday’s (Aug. 31) price hovered around $9.18 per MMBtu, well above the $3.73 to begin the year. The price hit a recent low around $1.50 per MMBtu in June 2020.Arkansas severance tax revenue is showing gains along with the higher market prices, according to figures from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration (DFA). The tax revenue peaked at $78.634 million in fiscal year (July-June) 2015, but declined to a low of $14.067 million in fiscal year 2020. The revenue partially rebounded to $61.556 million in fiscal year 2022, which ended in June.The July 2022 revenue, the most recent month reported by the DFA, was $8.784 million, which was ahead of the $8.444 million in the July of record-setting fiscal 2015.
60 gallons of oil, fuel spill into Cumberland County river after Naples boat fire — Dozens of gallons of oil and fuel leaked into the Songo River in Naples Tuesday night after a large boat caught fire. A 35-foot cabin cruiser motor boat caught fire, spreading to jet skis and a nearby dock, which were completely destroyed, according to officials with the Naples Fire Department. The owner was reportedly onboard with a bilge pump getting water out of the boat when the fire started. “On arrival the boat was fully involved,” Naples Fire Chief Justin Cox said. “And we just started fire suppression until the boat sank.” “[The owner] was trying to operate the boat,” Cox said. “Started the bilge pump and smelled smoke, saw fire and he evacuated.” After the fire was extinguished, officials determined that about 60 gallons of oil and gas had spilled into the river. One neighbor said that the fire was so big, he thought it might have been the woods outside his house. Chris Garcia said that he heard a pop and then saw a bright glow through his window shades late Tuesday afternoon. No one was seriously injured in the fire, which is believed to have started due to an electrical issue.
Eagle Ford Crude Oil Production Still Not On Pre-Pandemic Levels - Constant increases in the past six months have not yet put Eagle Ford crude oil production on par with pre-pandemic levels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. According to the EIA’s latest Drilling Productivity Report, crude oil production in the Eagle Ford region in southern Texas is estimated to average at around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) during September 2022. Despite recent increases, less crude oil is being produced in the Eagle Ford region than before the pandemic – 1.4 million bpd in April 2020 – and much less than the all-time high of 1.7 million bpd in March 2015. Because prices increased, we estimate that economically recoverable oil resources – the amount of recoverable oil that producers believe can be profitably produced – in the Eagle Ford formation, increased to 8.4 billion barrels in the first half of 2022, an increase from 0.5 billion barrels in 2020. The EIA said that, between 2020 and the first half of 2022, crude oil prices more than doubled, incentivizing future development in previously marginal areas. This analysis of the Eagle Ford formation focuses on proven reserves and economically recoverable resources. Proved reserves are volumes of crude oil and natural gas that data demonstrate with reasonable certainty can be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs, considering existing economic and operating conditions. In contrast, economically recoverable resources vary considerably depending on price and cost assumptions. Economically recoverable resources represent a less certain estimate of future crude oil and natural gas volumes and production. If prices are too low to provide a return on the investment of developing the well, producers will not invest in drilling the well. The Eagle Ford formation produces both crude oil and natural gas, so profitability is not only based on past crude oil or natural gas production rates but also on producers’ forecasts of future prices for natural gas and crude oil.
Surrounded by fossil fuels, they fear climate bill leaves them behind — On any given day at the Prince Hall apartment complex, the breeze might carry soot and stink of burning tar. Black smoke might billow overhead as excess gas is burned at one of the refineries directly across the road. The fumes make Ariel Watson’s head ache until she can barely think. Jeremy Roy, 9, closes his windows against air that “stinks like farts.” For the mostly Black and Latino residents of Port Arthur — home to three oil refineries, two liquid natural gas terminals and at least 40 other facilities that release toxins into the air — the burning of fossil fuels is a local health hazard as well as a planetary threat. But as Democrats celebrate the passage of a hard-fought climate deal, with historic investments in clean energy as well as concessions to the fossil fuel industry, locals fear that the legislation may leave their community behind. To secure the vote of Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), party leaders committed to auction off more drilling leases and relax permitting requirements for new projects. Experts say the measures may prolong the environmental damage many Americans now face — especially in areas where petroleum products are produced for export. Now, people in Port Arthur and other industrial communities say they must fight to maintain what power they have left: the ability to comment on — and push back against — polluting infrastructure. Positioned in the far eastern corner of Texas, close to the Gulf of Mexico and just 13 miles from where the state’s oil was first discovered, Port Arthur has been a hot spot for refining and manufacturing petroleum products for more than a century. And for just as long, says activist John Beard Jr., the city has been a “sacrifice zone” — one of many low-income communities of color that have borne the cost of the country’s economic growth.“We’re battling for a clean environment, not just for the sake of climate change, but for the sake of the air that we breathe and the water that we drink,” said Hilton Kelley, a Port Arthur native and founder of the Community in Power and Development Association, a local environmental justice group. “We’re battling for our life.”
Magellan to increase scope of El Paso refined products pipeline expansion - Magellan Midstream Partners said Aug. 29 it would increase the scope of its planned refined products pipeline network expansion in Texas from the Houston area to El Paso, adding an additional pipeline and capacity from the initial project. The expansion would increase capacity by 30,000 b/d to 100,000 b/d in part by building a new 16-inch, 30-mile pipeline between Odessa and Crane, Texas in the Permian Basin, as well as additional storage facilities. The original plan was to hike capacity up to 85,000 b/d, but Magellan said extra customer interest sparked the increased scope of the project. The overall project increases pipeline capacity along 265 miles from Odessa to El Paso. The project also would take advantage of underutilized pipeline capacity from the Houston oil-refining network to the Odessa hub. The pipeline system primarily moves gasoline and diesel fuel from US Gulf Coast refineries to El Paso, with further pipeline access into New Mexico, and connections to third-party pipelines to Arizona and Mexico. "To meet strong market demand, we have increased the scope of this expansion to deliver essential fuels supported by take-or-pay commitments from quality customers, providing an attractive return for our investors." Magellan said the project, which costs about $125 million, could be completed by early 2024 -- pushed back from a previous mid-2023 estimate -- following the addition of incremental pumping capabilities and the construction of additional storage in El Paso.
Judge Upholds $14 Million Fine in Long-running Citizen Suit Against Exxon in Texas - A federal judge this week rejected a third appeal by ExxonMobil in the 12-year legal battle over toxic emissions from one of the Texas-based energy giant’s Gulf Coast facilities. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans upheld a $14.25 million fine—thought to be the largest-ever fine resulting from citizen enforcement of environmental law—in a lawsuit brought by environmental organizations against Exxon’s massive complex in Baytown, some 25 miles outside Houston. The decision still doesn’t guarantee a conclusion to the long-running case, which Exxon may be able to appeal further. “It’s frequently in the interest of a company to drag out cases for as long as possible to try and get the other side to give up, but we are not giving up,” said Josh Kratka, senior attorney at the National Environmental Law Center, which represented the plaintiffs in the trial. “We hope this is the end of it.”The suit was first filed in 2010 by Environment Texas and the Sierra Club under the citizen suit provision of the Clean Air Act, which empowers civilians to sue polluters for violations of federal environmental law. The plaintiffs originally alleged that 16,386 illegal air emissions events, which Exxon disclosed in its own reports, affected the health of communities around the Baytown refinery. A district court in 2017 ordered the Texas-based energy giant to pay almost $20 million. Exxon appealed, arguing that not all of those violations could be directly traced to specific health problems. Upon review, the court reduced the number of actionable violations to 3,651 and reduced the fine to $14.25 million. Exxon appealed again, contesting the court’s legal standing and the size of the fine. “This is a standard tactic. It just goes to show the lengths that polluters will go to to prevent true justice from coming forward,” said Stefania Tomaskovic, director of the Coalition for Environment, Equity and Resilience in Houston. “It’s always a struggle to protect our air when companies have so much money to hire lawyers and citizens are not as well resourced.” On Tuesday, a federal judge rejected Exxon’s latest appeals. The judge upheld the high fine in part due to elements of the Clean Air Act designed to ensure that paying emissions fines isn’t a cheaper alternative for polluters than building adequate facilities. “The company delayed implementation of four emission-reducing projects mandated by a 2012 agreement between Exxon and state regulators,” said the court opinion issued this week. “Exxon needed to invest $11.75 million dollars in improvements to comply with its Clean Air Act obligations.”
Texas will plug 800 abandoned oil and gas wells, funded by $25 million federal infrastructure grant - Texas will begin plugging about 800 abandoned oil and gas wells this fall, the state’s oil and gas agency said, after receiving an initial $25 million grant from a program included in President Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan. It’s a fraction of the approximately 7,400 documented abandoned oil and gas wells that need to be plugged in the state — and industry observers believe the figure to be an undercount. Several more millions of dollars are expected to be disbursed to Texas through the newly created federal program. Abandoned oil and gas wells leak methane, a potent greenhouse gas that is the second-largest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. The wells, if not properly plugged, also can leak toxic water and chemicals in the surrounding areas. One orphan well, leaking extremely saline groundwater and hydrogen sulfide gas, has created a massive artificial lake in West Texas, known as Lake Boehmer. Methane lasts in the atmosphere for less time. Cutting methane emissions is one of the most effective short-term tools to reduce the effects of climate change, scientists say. The projected cost to plug and clean up the pollution from all 7,400 documented wells is approximately $482 million, according to the commission’s notice of intent to apply for federal funding obtained by The Texas Tribune. But an estimate from the Department of the Interior shows that Texas likely will be eligible for less than that — about $344 million in federal funds. The bipartisan infrastructure law passed last year by Congress dedicated $4.7 billion to create a new federal orphan oil and gas well remediation and plugging program. Both Republican U.S. Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz voted against the law — as did every Republican House member from Texas. The first grant of $25 million to Texas is part of an initial award of $560 million in 24 states. There are more than 10,000 high-priority well sites ready for remediation, according to the department’s estimates based on state applications.
Will Joe Biden’s gamble on big oil pay off in leveling gas prices? --Can Joe Biden push big oil to drill for more oil, lower gas prices andspeed up the switch to electric vehicles? That’s the ambitious aim of a plan the Biden administration is implementing as drivers continue to wrestle with soaring gas prices. Unusually, the plan has support not just from the oil industry but some economists and environmentalists.As 2022’s gas prices set off inflation and oil companies celebrated record profits, Biden practically begged industry executives to take a basic step that could have brought down costs: pump more oil to increase supply. His pleas fell on deaf ears.While critics charge the industry with acting out of greed, oil companies see real risk in pumping more oil. Since 2008, oil oversupplies have repeatedly caused prices to collapse, leaving companies with dwindling profit.In late July, the Biden administration changed tack, moving forward with a risky if innovative plan designed to protect consumers from high gas prices, reduce oil companies’ risk and push the nation toward electric vehicles. The proposal would work by wielding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the federal government’s store of oil, in a way that sets a partial floor and ceiling on oil prices.In short, when demand is weak and prices fall so low that pumping more oil becomes unprofitable, the government would buy at a price that’s high enough to buoy industry’s profits and store barrels in the reserve. When demand is strong and prices climb, the government can intervene by flooding the market with reserve oil, which could help bring down prices.If it works, the plan could be managed to keep gas prices high enough that consumers continue switching to EVs, but not so high that they harm the economy. While many will question the wisdom of a plan to reduce greenhouse gasses by pumping more oil, the idea still has support from a “strange-bedfellows coalition”, said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, a progressive thinktank that has pushed a similar plan.“If you’re using these tools intelligently, it does provide oil producers with some certainty and confidence,” he said. “But it also needs to be thought about holistically … and it should steward the strategic reserve in a climate-conscious way.”
Canada invokes pipeline treaty with U.S. over Wisconsin Line 5 dispute -Canada has invoked a 1977 pipeline treaty with the U.S. for the second time in less than a year, in this case to prevent a shutdown of Enbridge Inc.’s Line 5 pipeline in Wisconsin, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said on Aug. 29. The Bad River Band, a Native American tribe in northern Wisconsin, wants the 1953 pipeline shut down and removed from its reservation because of the risk of a leak and expired easements, which are land use agreements between Enbridge and the tribe.In May, Enbridge filed a motion in a U.S. district court saying federal law prohibits attempts to stop the pipeline’s operations. The motion sought to dismiss some of Bad River Band’s claims. The treaty, which was invoked last October in the Michigan case, is expressly designed to ensure the uninterrupted operation of hydrocarbons through the U.S."The economic and energy disruption and damage to Canada and the U.S. from a Line 5 shutdown would be widespread and significant," Joly said in a statement."This would impact energy prices, such as propane for heating homes and the price of gas at the pump. At a time when global inflation is making it hard on families to make ends meet, these are unacceptable outcomes."The statement says Canada "strongly" supports a proposal by Enbridge to reroute the pipeline around the Bad River Band reservation in northern Wisconsin.
Courts Lawsuit in ’21 oil spill has been settled, pipeline operator says – A settlement has been reached in a class-action lawsuit brought by fishing companies, coastal businesses and property owners looking to recoup losses after last fall’s pipeline break that spilled thousands of gallons of oil into the ocean off Orange County, operator Amplify Energy Corp. announced Aug. 25. Details of the agreement that will settle the civil claims against Amplify and its subsidiary companies were not provided. A statement from Amplify’s president and CEO, Martyn Wilsher, said, “Though we are unable to provide additional detail at this time, we negotiated in good faith and believe we have come to a reasonable and fair resolution.” Wylie Aitken, one of three attorneys tapped to represent more than a dozen business owners and individuals named as plaintiffs in the suit, said the agreement includes “both monetary and injunctive relief,” though he declined to provide the amount of money the parties settled on until the agreement is submitted to the court for approval. Still being finalized are details such as how the money will be allocated fairly to all plaintiffs and the steps for injunctive relief that Amplify will take to ensure “this never happens again,” he said. Aitken said, though, that attorneys are “very satisfied” with the terms of the agreement “and feel our clients will be equally satisfied, and that’s the most important thing.” Amplify said the company’s insurance policies will fund the settlement, which still needs to be approved by the court. Orange County officials recently agreed to accept a $956,352 settlement from the company, which will cover costs incurred by county agencies during the cleanup.
Texas firm to pay $13 mln to settle charges over California oil spill -A TEXAS oil company agreed to plead guilty to criminal negligence charges and pay nearly $13 million for a crude oil spill that killed wildlife and fouled southern California beaches, federal prosecutors said on Friday. Amplify Energy Corp repeatedly turned off and on a 17-mile-long subsea pipeline when it could not determine the location of the leak, according to plea agreements filed in U.S. District Court, Central District of California. The Houston-based company and two subsidiaries each agreed to plead guilty to one count of negligently discharging oil during the October 2021 incident. The pipeline was struck by a ship’s anchor. The three firms “are required to make significant improvements that will help prevent future oil spills,“ Acting United States Attorney Stephanie S. Christensen said in a statement. The plea “reflects the commitments we made immediately following the incident to impacted parties and is in the best interest of Amplify and its stakeholders,“ said Chief Executive Martyn Willsher. The spill released some 558 barrels (25,000 gallons) of crude oil into the Pacific Ocean, killing wildlife, blackening the coastline and forcing the closure of beaches south of Los Angeles. A judge must still accept the plea agreement. The companies will serve probation for four years, be required to conduct semiannual pipeline inspections, and revise and submit an oil spill plan to state wildlife officials, the court filing showed. Amplify has said it incurred $17.3 million in cleanup costs in the immediate aftermath of the spill. The company this week said it reached an agreement in principle with plaintiffs to resolve civil claims.
When an Oil Well Is Your Neighbor - .—On a blistering July afternoon, a rusty pumpjack bobs noisily as it sucks up tarry oil in the middle of a residential neighborhood in Arvin, a close-knit farmworker community in the heart of California oil country. To an outsider, it’s a shock to see a pumpjack barely 25 feet from someone’s home. But for Yesinia Martinez, the dilapidated rig beyond her bedroom window is just something that’s always been there. Her health problems, too, have always been there. Every day is a struggle. “I wake up and I have, like, no energy to get up,” she said. “I get headaches often. My memory is horrible.” Martinez personifies California’s failure to protect its residents from the harsh realities of living near fossil fuel extraction. Oil and gas operations have been linked to a growing list of serious health consequences, from birth defects to cancer, while the industry’s wastewater pollutes the state’s dwindling groundwater reserves. Meanwhile, environmental watchdogs armed with state-of-the-art imaging cameras routinely detect toxic emissions from neighborhood oil and gas wells and storage tanks, demonstrating the failure of state and regional regulators to keep communities safe. People like Martinez have paid for that failure with their health. Martinez lost count of how many times she woke up as a kid feeling something wet on her face, only to realize her nose was bleeding. She’s long had stomach trouble and bouts of anemia. Now 21, she no longer has nosebleeds, but suffers from dry eyes and headaches, fatigue and memory problems that made it even harder to study when her local university went virtual during the pandemic. She’s been seeing specialists since last fall, when her stomach problems and dizzy spells got worse. Her doctors suspect she may have an autoimmune disorder but won’t prescribe any medications until they settle on a diagnosis. “It’s overwhelming because I keep going to all these doctor’s appointments since I was younger and they can’t tell me what’s wrong,” said Martinez. “But I know there’s something wrong with me because, if not, I wouldn’t be feeling like this on a daily basis.”
California lawmakers OK buffer zones for new oil wells - After years of failed attempts to impose health and safety buffer zones around new oil and gas wells in California, state lawmakers on Wednesday sent a bill to the governor that would require setbacks between those production sites and residential neighborhoods and other sensitive areas.Senate Bill 1137 is a major part of a package of climate legislation that Gov. Gavin Newsom pledged to bolster the state’s environmental policies.“It’s a long-standing and glaring example of environmental racism,” said state Sen. Lena Gonzalez (D-Long Beach), who introduced the bill. “Research shows, of course, that people of color, Black, brown and Indigenous people suffer the greatest consequences of this toxic proximity and these are the same communities that have oil production in their backyards.”The legislation prohibits the California Geologic Energy Management Division from approving a new oil well within 3,200 feet of a “sensitive receptor,” defined as a residence, education resource, community resource, healthcare facility, dormitory or any building open to the public.Similar efforts have failed to gain traction in the state Legislature in the past, succumbing to tough lobbying opposition from the petroleum industry and trade unions. Newsom largely remained on the sidelines during those earlier legislative battles while he pushed his administration to adopt setbacks through state regulations.The governor waded into the fight this year, however, after the Western States Petroleum Assn. ran ads in Florida criticizing Newsom’s climate policies. The ads were aired after Newsom ran his own television spots in Florida calling out the state’s restrictive policies on abortion and LGBTQ rights.Opponents argued that the bill would raise already sky-high gas prices and criticized the rushed nature in which the legislation was approved during floor debates in the Legislature. “This bill is a setback for desperately needed energy production in California,” Assemblymember Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) said on the Assembly floor. “This bill is a setback for Californians struggling to afford to live and work in California. This bill is a setback to the entire California economy.” Democratic lawmakers said SB 1137 will only block oil companies from building new wells, or wells that are reworked, near the restricted areas and that existing wells can continue to operate. Companies with existing oil and gas wells within the health and safety buffers would be required to monitor emissions, control dust and limit nighttime noise and light.
Feds implore court to review California fracking injunction - · A federal appeals court panel jumped the gun when it blocked the U.S. government from issuing fracking permits off the coast of California, according to a request by the Biden administration for a new, full court hearing.
Salvage to commence on sunken fishing vessel off San Juan Island, Washington - A multi-agency operation will soon commence to raise the wreck of a commercial fishing vessel that sank off San Juan Island in Washington State earlier this month. The fishing vessel is the 49-foot (14.9-metre) Aleutian Isle, which sank to a depth of 200 feet (60.8 metres) west of San Juan Island in the afternoon (local time) of August 13. All of the boat’s occupants were safely rescued. However, the incident also resulted in an oil spill as the vessel’s fuel tanks still contained 2,500 gallons (9,463 litres) of diesel at the time of the sinking. The pollution response phase was then undertaken, and the decision was made to proceed with the raising of the wreck after responders noticed a reduction in the visible oil pollution in the area within the week following the incident. Dive operations are ongoing in preparation for the eventual lifting of the sunken vessel with the aid of a crane and barge. The present dive effort has an estimated duration of 10 days under optimal weather conditions. A unified command consisting of the US Coast Guard, the Washington Department of Ecology, the San Juan County Office of Emergency Management, and the Swinomish Tribe has been formed in response to the incident. Support agencies include the NOAA, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Islands’ Oil Spill Association, the National Marine Fisheries Service, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.
Imperial Oil reporting spill in Norman Wells occurred under Mackenzie River - Nearly a month after the incident was first reported, Imperial Oil has confirmed that the produced water line that spilled in Norman Wells, N.W.T. is underneath the Mackenzie River. Cabin Radio first reported the leak's location. Imperial Oil said the cause of the leak is still being determined and that results from water sampling indicate there is no risk to public health or freshwater aquatic life downstream. In early August, residents in Fort Good Hope reported a fuel-like sheen and other surface contaminants spotted on the surface of the Mackenzie River. Residents report unusual conditions on Mackenzie River following Imperial Oil spill in Norman Wells, N.W.T. In an interview with CBC News in late July, Edwin Erutse, president of the Yamoga Land Corporation, said news of the spill came during a busy fishing time in the community. "People have nets and that out on the river, so I want to make sure that these concerns don't go unaddressed," he said. Tommy Kakfwi, who was elected chief of Fort Good Hope in 2021, said the Guardian representatives with the K'ahsho Got'ine Foundation are doing their own tests alongside Imperial Oil. "There is concern," he said. "We're doing our own water sampling right beside them to make sure they don't water down their results." The spill was reported to the N.W.T. Department of Environment and Natural Resources on July 27 and according to the federal regulator occurred between Bear and Goose Island. Produced water is treated water that is pumped to the surface during oil recovery and then reused. According to Transport Canada, produced water can contain contaminants from oil extraction, but varies with how much it contains. The company estimates the quantity of the spill is 55 cubic metres (55,000 litres).
Canada to import a record volume of US ethanol in 2022 -Fuel ethanol consumption in Canada is expected to grow by approximately 8.6 percent this year, according to a report filed with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Information Network. Imports of U.S. fuel ethanol are expected to reach a record 1.5 billion liters (396.26 million gallons). According to the report, Canada is expected to consume approximately 3.18 billion liters of fuel ethanol this year, up from 2.928 billion liters in 2021, 2.783 billion liters in 2020 and 3.064 billion liters in 2019. Ethanol is expected to account for 6.7 percent of gasoline use in 2022, compared to 6.3 percent last year and 6.2 percent in 2020. There are currently 12 ethanol plants located in Canada with a combined 1.881 billion liters of production capacity. The number of plants has held steady since 2018, with capacity maintained at its current level since 2020. Capacity use is expected to reach 95.7 percent this year, up from 93 percent in 2021 and 90.3 percent in 2020. Canadian ethanol plants are expected to produce 1.8 billion liters of fuel ethanol this year, up from 1.75 billion liters in 2021 and 1.698 billion liters in 2020. Production, however, is expected to remain slightly below the 1.891 billion liters produced in 2019. Corn is the primary feedstock used to produce fuel ethanol in Canada, with 3.7 million metric tons expected to be consumed this year, up from 3.55 million metric tons in 2021 and 3.352 million metric tons in 2020. An additional 560,000 metric tons of wheat and other grains is expected to go to fuel ethanol production this year, up from 540,000 metric tons in 2021 and 552,000 metric tons in 2020. Canada is expected to export 180 million liters of ethanol this year, including 100 million liters of fuel ethanol. The country exported 178 million liters of ethanol last year, including 108 million liters of fuel ethanol, and 143 million liters in 2020, including 75 million liters of fuel ethanol. Ethanol imports are expected to reach 1.6 billion liters this year, including 1.48 billion liters of fuel ethanol. Canada imported 1.373 billion liters of ethanol last year, including 1.254 billion liters of fuel ethanol, and 1.256 billion liters in 2020, including 1.164 billion liters of fuel ethanol. Canadian imports of U.S. fuel ethanol reached a record 1.3 billion liters in 2021, up 8 percent when compared to 2020. Imports of U.S. fuel ethanol are expected to increase to 1.5 billion liters in 2022.
Crude oil from Mizton Field offshore Mexico reaches US markets – Exports of Mexico’s newest crude are ramping up from Eni’s Mizton field as US refiners find it an apt replacement for banned Russian oil and one that complements domestic grades. As reported by Reuters, the shipments represent the first crude exports made by an oil company other than state firm Pemex in Mexico’s history. The Mizton field is part of the Mizton-Amoca-Tecoalli cluster in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Eni estimates that the fields hold about 2.1 billion barrels of oil and gas. The Miamte FPSO, which can handle up to 90,000 barrels per day of output, began pumping the oil in February. Four vessels chartered by Eni Trading & Shipping have discharged at US ports since April, according to the Reuters report. They have carried a total of about 2.2 million barrels of the crude to US refiners including Marathon Petroleum and PBF Energy. A fifth Eni cargo of 525,000 barrels of Mizton on Aframax tanker Nippon Princess is scheduled to reach the US East coast soon, reportedly purchased by PBF Energy. Mizton crude is similar in quality to other US Gulf grades used by coastal refiners, and a good replacement of Russia’s flagship Urals crude, according to analysis in the Reuters report. Russian oil, which accounted for about 3% of total US crude imports last year, was banned in April as part of American sanctions on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.
Value of Jamaica's crude oil imports grew by 50 per cent in 2021 - ESSJ - The value of crude oil imports by Jamaica last year grew by 50.0 per cent to US$580.9 million compared with 2020 according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica’s Economic and Social Survey Jamaica (ESSJ), 2021 edition. According to the survey, the growth was driven by an increase of 49.6 per cent to US$71.0 in the average cost per barrel of crude oil, reflecting the rise in international crude oil prices. “The volume of crude oil imported remained relatively flat at 8.2 million barrels. Brazil continued to be Jamaica’s largest supplier of crude oil, with imports increasing to 5.9 million barrels from 4.8 million barrels, followed by Colombia, which decreased from 2.9 million barrels to 1.9 million barrels,” said the ESSJ. It noted that the value of refined products imported by Petrojam grew to US$425.2 million from US$190.8 million For imports of petroleum products by bauxite companies, the value increased to US$95.7 million from US$86.3 million, and for petroleum products imported by the marketing companies the value rose to US$286.8 million from US$224.0 million. “The country’s oil bill (total value of crude oil, refined product imports and LNG imports) increased to US$1.69 billion from US$1.08 billion, mainly reflecting the rise in international oil prices,” the survey said.
US LNG export terminals stage production push as European gas prices top $100/MMBtu - Record global gas prices, now trading as high as $100/MMBtu in onshore European markets, are putting pressure on US LNG export terminals to step up production, pushing feedgas demand this week to its highest since early July. On Aug. 25, total gas demand from US export terminals edged up to over 11.5 Bcf/d, marking its highest level since July 1. The single-day demand high is no fluke — over the past week, feedgas demand has trended just shy of that level, averaging nearly 11.2 Bcf/d, data from Platts Analytics shows. The continued ramp up of production at Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass terminal has been a key driver behind recent gains in US liquefaction activity, with flows to the still-commissioning 10 million mt/year terminal estimated at a record-high 1.6 Bcf/d on Aug. 26. While the June 8 shut-in of production at Freeport LNG cut US export capacity by some 2 Bcf/d, or about 15%, this summer, the US’ other six operational terminals are making a push to maximize output — and for good reason. On Aug. 26, spot LNG import prices in Northwest Europe surged to their highest on record for the third consecutive day, this time hitting $74.49/MMBtu. In East Asia, Platts benchmark JKM import price climbed to over $71/MMBtu on Aug. 25, before easing back to the mid-$66 range on Aug. 26. At current levels, JKM prices are at their highest since the single-day price of $84.76 was recorded in early March, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows. In the US market, the Platts Gulf Coast Marker for FOB cargoes loading 30-60 days forward was assessed at $73.35/MMBtu Aug. 26, up $6.10/MMBtu on the day to a new high. The run up in global prices, which have surged this week, comes as the European gas market grapples with growing supply uncertainty. Most recently, Norwegian transmission system operator, Gassco, advised European end-users of a planned maintenance on the Karsto, Oseberg and Kristin gas assets, from Aug. 26- Sept. 7, Platts reported previously. The maintenance cuts Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe by some 23.5 million cu m/d, or about 800 MMcf/d.
The Global Gas Crisis Is Spilling Into The United States - Both experts and everyday consumers remain at odds about the current state of the global natural gas market. The main point of contention is whether U.S. prices will drop significantly or rise further. With inflation hitting record highs this past year, nobody can blame consumers for being wary. Most experts agree that gas prices and demand will keep up their pace. The ongoing European energy crisis weighed into this heavily. EU countries continue to search for alternatives to Russian fuel. However, Europe’s energy problems will likely ripple into the entirety of the international energy market. In fact, it might be happening already. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline running at low capacities could hit the U.S. harder than expected. With sky-high gas prices across Europe and dwindling reserves, the EU has been scouring the world for alternatives to Russian energy. Because of this, global gas competition recently experienced a sharp – and ongoing – rise.Along with this, the winter months will prove the most strenuous on the average consumer’s wallet. After all, millions of American and European homes rely on natural gas for heat. With winter quickly approaching, the situation looks grim. While bills like the Inflation Reduction Act will likely take some of the pressure off of natural gas demand in the US, those initiatives will take time to implement and build. The real question remains; will they be ready in 3-4 months' time?On the positive side, Europe’s frantic search for solutions could pay off in the near future. Already, countries like Norway, the US, and the UK have stepped up to aid Germany and other central EU nations in getting alternative gas imports. However, whether or not these sources are enough to tide the EU over through winter remains up for debate.With competition for natural gas hitting a fever pitch, many speculate gas prices will continue rising worldwide. Not only are natural gas supplies in the US being shipped to Europe to aid with the energy crisis, but record-setting heat waves mean more power consumption as American, and European homes are relying more and more on air conditioning. Even Asia has started feeling the strain of the Western energy crisis these past few weeks. For instance, Japan has begun looking for alternative sources of natural gas in light of the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe. As with the West, Northern Asia is firmly focused on making it through the coming winter. In the past couple of weeks, Russia started hinting that it might also limit gas supplies to Northern Asia. Russia halted a large shipment of natural gas bound for its southern neighbors.Countries like South Korea and Japan, which have minimal natural gas reserves of their own, are heavily reliant on natural gas imports. This puts them in direct competition with European, which has its eye on LNG supplies shipped by sea. Though the battle to secure supplies just started, many experts expect it to intensify in the coming years.
Analysis: Forget showering, it's eat or heat for shocked Europeans hit by energy crisis - (Reuters) – No more ironing, limited oven use and showering at work – Europeans are trying to keep their energy use down but the bills keep climbing.As wholesale gas and electricity prices surge, millions of people in Europe are now spending a record amount of their income on energy, data show.In the east England town of Grimsby, Philip Keetley didn’t turn on his cooling fan at home as Britain sweltered under a record heat-wave this summer.A look at his bank account showed he couldn’t afford to. “The cost of living has increased and yet you’re still expected to live on the money provided for when there wasn’t a crisis … I either can have my heating on or eat,” Keetley said. Citizens in other European countries too are voluntarily taking action to cut consumption as gas, electricity and fuel prices sky-rocket due to war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic.The benchmark European gas price has soared 550% in the past 12 months. The cost of energy for British consumers will rise by 80% from October, regulator Ofgem said on Friday, taking average annual household bills to 3,549 pounds ($4,188).European governments have rushed to offer aid, but data shows the assistance hasn’t made a significant difference to households.This winter, Britons will spend an average 10% of their household income on gas, electricity and other heating fuels as well as domestic vehicle fuels, mainly petrol and diesel, twice the amount in 2021, according to Carbon Brief’s calculations of official data.This makes the current energy crisis more severe than those of the 1970s and 1980s. An oil producer’s oil embargo and the Iranian revolution in 1979 caused blackouts and long queues in petrol stations in the West. At the peak of that crisis in 1982, people in the UK paid 9.3% of their income on energy.UK charity National Energy Action (NEA) estimates 8.5 million UK households could be in fuel poverty after October when Britain’s cap increases, up from 4.5 million last October.
"How In The Name Of God": Shocked Europeans Post Astronomical Energy Bills As 'Terrifying Winter' Approaches - Over the past week, shocked Europeans - mostly in the UK and Ireland - have been posting viral photos of shockingly high energy bills amid the ongoing (and worsening) energy crisis. Several of the posts were from small business owners who getting absolutely crushed right now, and won't be able to remain operational much longer. One such owner is Geraldine Dolan, who owns the Poppyfields cafe in Athlone, Ireland - and was charged nearly €10,000 (US$10,021) for just over two months of energy usage. As the Irish Times reports, "The cost of electricity to the Poppyfields cafe for 73 days from early June until the end of August came in at €9,024.70 an increase of 250 per cent in just 12 months. There doesn’t include the €812.22 in VAT, which brought her total bill to €9,836.92." "How in the name of God is this possible," tweeted Dolan.UK pensioners are also facing a "terrifying" winter, as elderly Britons are about to get hit with an 80% rise in energy bills in October.Elderly Britons are set to welcome a boost of around £1,000 to their state pension payments next year thanks to the return of the triple lock, however the cost of living crisis will still leave them significantly poorer.However, the price cap for energy bills will rise by 80 per cent to £3,549 in October, and it is predicted to rise over £6,600 next year according to Cornwall Insight.Higher energy bills often hurt pensioners significantly more than the rest of the population because they spend a greater amount of their income on heating their home. -Daily Mail
"A Structural Rupture" - German Companies Shutting Down In Response To Record Energy Prices --It's not just European smelters shutting down due to soaring energy prices: the entire German economy is about to get its plug pulled. While a handful of macro tourists rejoice that record European year-ahead electricity prices plunged by 50% to levels not seen since... last week... As the FT reports, German manufacturers are halting production in response to the surge in energy prices, a trend the government has described as “alarming”. German economy minister Robert Habeck said industry had worked hard to reduce its gas consumption in recent months, partly by switching to alternative fuels like oil, making its processes more efficient and reducing output. But he amusingly clarified, some companies had also “stopped production altogether” — a development he said was “alarming”.“It’s not good news," he said, “because it can mean that the industries in question aren’t just being restructured but are experiencing a rupture — a structural rupture, one that is happening under enormous pressure.”Habeck said rising gas prices were affecting everyone from big industrial companies to small trading firms and the medium-sized enterprises that make up the “Mittelstand”. “Wherever energy is an important part of the business model, companies are experiencing sheer angst,” he said. And since energy is a crucial part of every business model, one can only imagine the chaos, fear and loathing hammering the largest European economy right now.Confirming that Trump was right all along, the German minister said the business model of large parts of German manufacturing was based on the abundance of gas from Russia that was cheaper than gas from other regions. That competitive advantage “won’t come back any time soon, if it ever comes back at all”, Habeck said.Whether he was aware of it or not, Habeck effectively echoed what Zoltan Pozsar said over the weekend, that Europe is facing a Minsky moment triggered by excessive financial leverage "and in the context of supply chains, leverage means excessive operating leverage: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia… …that’s 100-times leverage – much more than Lehman’s."
Climate change: Russia burns off gas as Europe’s energy bills rocket - BBC - As Europe's energy costs skyrocket, Russia is burning off large amounts of natural gas, according to analysis shared with BBC News. They say the plant, near the border with Finland, is burning an estimated $10m (£8.4m) worth of gas every day.Experts say the gas would previously have been exported to Germany.Germany's ambassador to the UK told BBC News that Russia was burning the gas because "they couldn't sell it elsewhere".Scientists are concerned about the large volumes of carbon dioxide and soot it is creating, which could exacerbate the melting of Arctic ice.The analysis by Rystad Energy indicates that around 4.34 million cubic metres of gas are being burned by the flare every day.It is coming from a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at Portovaya, north-west of St Petersburg. The first signs that something was awry came from Finnish citizens over the nearby border who spotted a large flame on the horizon earlier this summer. Portovaya is located close to a compressor station at the start of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which carries gas under the sea to Germany. Supplies through the pipeline have been curtailed since mid-July, with the Russians blaming technical issues for the restriction. Germany says it was purely a political move following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But since June, researchers have noted a significant increase in heat emanating from the facility - thought to be from gas flaring, the burning of natural gas. While burning off gas is common at processing plants - normally done for technical or safety reasons - the scale of this burn has confounded experts. "I've never seen an LNG plant flare so much," said Dr Jessica McCarty, an expert on satellite data from Miami University in Ohio. Miguel Berger, the German ambassador to the UK, told BBC News that European efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas were "having a strong effect on the Russian economy". "They don't have other places where they can sell their gas, so they have to burn it," he suggested. Mark Davis is the CEO of Capterio, a company that is involved in finding solutions to gas flaring.He says the flaring is not accidental and is more likely a deliberate decision made for operational reasons."Operators often are very hesitant to actually shut down facilities for fear that they may be technically difficult or costly to start up again, and it's probably the case here," he told BBC News. Others believe that there could be technical challenges in dealing with the large volumes of gas that were being supplied to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.It could also be the result of Europe's trade embargo with Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine."This kind of long-term flaring may mean that they are missing some equipment," said Esa Vakkilainen, an energy engineering professor from Finland's LUT University."So, because of the trade embargo with Russia, they are not able to make the high-quality valves needed in oil and gas processing. So maybe there are some valves broken and they can't get them replaced." The financial and environmental costs mount each day the flare continues to burn, say scientists. "While the exact reasons for the flaring are unknown, the volumes, emissions and location of the flare are a visible reminder of Russia's dominance in Europe's energy markets," said Sindre Knutsson from Rystad Energy. "There could not be a clearer signal - Russia can bring energy prices down tomorrow. This is gas that would otherwise have been exported via Nord Stream 1 or alternatives."
Russia Gives Power Burn a Whole New Meaning - Russia is giving the term ‘power burn’ a whole new meaning by flaring its gas instead of exporting it to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline. That’s what energy and environmental geo-analytics company Kayrros stated in a new market note sent to Rigzone, adding that the term is usually used to evoke the burning of natural gas in power plants. Since June, satellite data from VIIRS and Sentinel-2 processed by Kayrros has shown “abnormally high” flaring from the Portovaya compressor station on the Russian-Finnish border, the entry point for Gazprom’s Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany, Kayrros outlined. S-2 images suggest flaring likely began when Russia started rationing gas exports in June, “ostensibly for maintenance reasons”, Kayrros noted. “Many see the move as a power play to ratchet up political pressure on European supporters of Ukraine that depend on Russian gas for their winter needs,” Kayrros said in the note. “High flaring also suggests Gazprom might prefer to burn gas than to shut-in production, perhaps in the hope that the export cuts will remain temporary,” Kayrros added. In the note, Kayrros outlined that, faced with reduced Russian gas supplies, Europe continues to import “much more LNG than normal, with the U.S. accounting for most of the increase”. “Europe has continued to import LNG at unprecedented rates this summer in a bid to make up for reduced exports of Russian piped gas,” Kayrros stated. “European LNG imports significantly exceeded the level of previous years in the first half of 2022. They have since remained elevated and have not shown much of the seasonal decline normally seen in the summer,” the company added. If Nord Stream 1 flows are cut to nil, absent demand destruction, European gas inventories would be exhausted by year-end, BofA Global Research stated in a report sent to Rigzone recently. “More worryingly, even at 20 percent NS1 capacity utilization (equal to current flows), we project the same outcome just one winter later in 2023/2024,” BofA Global Research added in the report. “While NS1 used to deliver ~10 percent of Europe’s gas demand and carried ~35 percent of Russian piped exports as of 2021, we believe minimum 2022 levels implied by Europe’s take-or-pay contracts with Gazprom could be serviced without any flows from NS1,” the company continued. BofA Global Research highlighted in the report that a 10 percent gas demand reduction year on year across the first half of 2022 has contributed to restoring current European gas inventory levels to five-year averages from record lows in January. “We believe further demand destruction in Europe will be necessary to fill storage to targeted levels (90 percent) and avoid inventory depletion into next winter,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.
Ursula von der Leyen Calls for 'Emergency Intervention' in Electricity Market."The skyrocketing electricity prices are now exposing, for different reasons, the limitations of our current electricity market design," the European Commission president said on Monday while addressing the Bled Strategic Forum in Slovenia. "[The market] was developed under completely different circumstances and for completely different purposes. It is no longer fit for purpose."That is why we, the Commission, are now working on an emergency intervention and a structural reform of the electricity market. We need a new market model for electricity that really functions and brings us back into balance."Under this system, all electricity producers – from fossil fuels to wind and solar – bid into the market and offer power according to their production costs. The bidding starts from the cheapest resources – the renewables – and finishes with the most expensive ones, usually gas.Since most EU countries still rely on fossil fuels to meet all their energy demands, the final price of electricity is often set by the price of gas. If gas becomes more expensive, electricity bills inevitably go up, even if clean, cheaper sources also contribute to the total energy supply.
Europe Plans "Emergency Intervention" In Power Market As All Hell Breaks Loose - With even Zoltan Pozsar warning that Europe faces an apocalypse of sorts now that the Eurussia divorce is complete and energy prices in Europe are hitting fresh daily record highs every single day - just today, German 1Year forward baseload electricity rose above €1000, or 10x where they were a year ago, before easing after European nat gas prices plunged the most since March after Germany said its gas stores are filling up faster than planned ahead of winter... ... moments ago the European Union appears to have finally realized that it faces an armed revolt this winter, or worse, when millions face freezing cold without power and heat (see "This Is Beyond Imagination": Polish Homeowners Line Up For Days To Buy Coal Ahead Of Winter"), and announced that it was planning "urgent steps" to push down soaring power prices, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday."The skyrocketing electricity prices are now exposing, for different reasons, the limitations of our current electricity market design,” von der Leyen said in a speech at the Bled Strategic Summit in Slovenia, pointing out what has been obvious for years to those who warned repeatedly that Europe should probably not take make its energy policy based on the idiotic ravings of a self-absorbed, petulant, Scandinavian teenager. “It was developed under completely different circumstances and completely different purposes.”Ah yes, it's the "circumstances and purposes" that are at fault, not Europe's catastrophic "green" push over the past decade that left the continent at the mercy of Putin, very much as one Donald J Trump warned would happen... and speaking of Putin, maybe Europe can impose a few more self-destructive sanctions on Russian energy exports. But we digress...Ursula then added “that’s why we are now working on an emergency intervention and a structural reform of the electricity market", one which would look roughly like this. The unprecedented spike in power prices, which have soared almost 10-fold in the past year, has fueled inflation, increased the economic burden on businesses and households recovering from the pandemic, and forced the ECB to aggressively hike rate in hopes of crushing demand into what is now a definite recession if not a depression. One could say that Putin couldn't have planned his revenge on Europe better.According to Bloomberg, more and more member states are calling for a price cap and the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, plans to convene an extraordinary meeting of energy ministers on Sept. 9.In other words, while the ECB plans to crush demand with tighter monetary conditions, European governments will ease demand and inject fiscal stimulus to avoid an angry mob descending on various local parliaments.
Average Filling Level Of EU Gas Storage Facilities Reached 80% - Von Der Leyen - The average filling level of the European Union gas storage facilities has reached 80%, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday. "We have reached now an average in the European Union of storage filling of 80% so we are basically have reached already the amount that we have agreed on for this year but we know that we will increase this storage filling," von der Leyen said at the Baltic Sea Energy Summit in Denmark.
European Natural Gas Prices Plummet - It was a volatile start to the week for energy markets. European natural gas prices sunk, whilst oil moved higher. The next week will be key for markets. For natural gas, we will need to see whether flows along Nord Stream restart later in the week following maintenance. For oil, OPEC+ will hold its monthly meeting on 5 September to discuss supply policy. European natural gas prices came under significant pressure yesterday. TTF settled almost 20% lower, although prices are still trading at more than EUR270/MWh. Following the higher prices run, it seems there has been some profit-taking. From a fundamental point of view, little has changed to justify the scale of the move. Although given the uncertainty and limited liquidity in the market, prices are likely to remain trading at elevated levels with a large amount of volatility. Possibly contributing to the weakness were reports that the European Commission will come up with a proposal to address the significant strength that we have seen in European power prices. Any action which caps power prices will limit the profitability of burning gas for power generation, which could possibly feed through to lower gas demand. At the moment, spark spreads provide little incentive for gas demand destruction from the power generation sector. Finally, Russian gas flows along Nord Stream are set to stop tomorrow (31 August) for three days of maintenance at a compressor station. The market will be eagerly watching to see if flows restart once maintenance comes to an end. Currently, Nord Stream is only operating at about 20% of capacity, and Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) has said that flows will return to these levels once the work is complete. If flows do restart when stated, it could provide a bit further downside to European prices in the immediate term
Russia halts gas through major pipeline, citing maintenance (AP) — Russia’s Gazprom halted the flow of natural gas through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe early Wednesday, a stoppage that it announced in advance and has said will last three days. The Russian state-owned energy company announced the closure of Nord Stream 1 in mid-August, citing maintenance at a compressor station — an explanation that German officials have cast doubt on. Gazprom says that work is necessary on the only remaining functioning turbine at the Portovaya station, at the Russian end of the pipeline. Gazprom started cutting supplies through Nord Stream 1 in mid-June. It cited technical problems that German authorities have dismissed as cover for a political power play. In recent weeks, Nord Stream 1 has been running at only 20% of capacity. Russia, which before the reductions started accounted for a bit more than a third of Germany’s gas supplies, has also reduced the flow of gas to other European countries which have sided with Ukraine in the war. Natural gas is used to power industry, heat homes and offices, and generate electricity. Increasing the amount in reserve has been a key focus of the German government since Russia invaded Ukraine, to avoid rationing for industry as demand rises in the winter. In July, the government moved to tighten storage requirements. It introduced a requirement for storage to be 75% full by Sept. 1 — a target that already has been surpassed — and raised the targets for October and November to 85% and 95%, respectively, from 80% and 90%. As of Wednesday, Germany’s storage facilities were over 83% full. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his government had done well to act early, when “not everyone was sure we might have a problem.” While Germany looks to store gas and diversify its supplies, it also is among countries pushing for an urgent redesign of the European electricity market to decrease the influence of soaring gas prices on the cost of energy. “The pressure is so great that I am really very confident that it will be done quickly,” he said Wednesday, without specifying whether changes will be in place this winter. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged reform on Monday.
Gazprom To Slash NatGas Deliveries To France's Top Utility As Squeeze Worsens - On Tuesday, Europe faced a worsening supply crunch after Russian energy giant Gazprom PSJC informed French utility Engie SA that natural gas supplies would immediately be reduced because of contract disagreements, reported Financial Times.Engie said Gazprom notified it of "a reduction in gas deliveries, starting today, due to a disagreement between the parties on the application of some contracts."Gazprom's reductions in NatGas over retaliation for sanctions related to its invasion of Ukraine have primarily targeted Germany and eastern Europe but now appear to extend to France. The continent is facing the worst energy crisis in half a century, sending prices of NatGas to record highs on supply shortage concerns ahead of the winter season. French Energy Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher spoke with France Inter radio about the NatGas curbs to Engie, who warned: "We're getting ready for the worst-case scenario, which is a complete cut-off." She said Moscow is using NatGas as a weapon of war.Engie's deliveries of Russian NatGas averaged in the 17% range but have since slumped to only 4% in recent months. The good news is the utility announced it "had already secured the volumes necessary to meet its commitments towards its customers and its own requirements, and put in place several measures to significantly reduce any direct financial and physical impacts that could result from an interruption to gas supplies by Gazprom." The announcement follows the EU's announcement on Monday to prepare emergency measures to reduce the price of electricity by separating it from soaring NatGas prices.
Russia's Gazprom to halt gas to Europe via key pipeline - (AP) — Europe’s energy crisis loomed larger Friday after Russian energy giant Gazprom said it couldn't resume the supply of natural gas through a major pipeline to Germany for now. The company cited what it said was a need for urgent maintenance work to repair key components — in an announcement made just hours before it had been due to restart deliveries. The Russian state-run energy company had shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Wednesday for what it said would be three days of maintenance. It said in a social media post Friday evening that it had identified “malfunctions” of a turbine and added that the pipeline would not work unless those were eliminated. The move was the latest development in a saga in which Gazprom has advanced technical problems as the reason for reducing gas flows through Nord Stream 1 — explanations that German officials have rejected as a cover for a political power play following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. European utilities have scrambled to find additional supply during the summer months to get ready for the winter’s heating demands, buying expensive liquefied gas that comes by ship, while additional supplies have come by pipeline from Norway and Azerbaijan. Fears of a winter shortage have eased somewhat as storage has progressed, but a complete cutoff could present Europe with serious difficulties, analysts say. The European Union needs to step up efforts to reduce gas consumption, said energy policy expert Simone Tagliapietra at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. The continuing interruptions from Gazprom mean that “a winter with zero Russian gas is the central scenario for Europe.” he said. “There is only one way to prepare for that: reducing gas and electricity demand.” Gazprom said it had identified oil leaks from four turbines at the Portovaya compressor station at the Russian end of the pipeline, including the sole operational one. It claimed to have received warnings from Russia’s industrial safety watchdog that the leaks “do not allow for safe, trouble-free operation of the gas turbine engine.” “In connection with this, it is necessary to take appropriate measures and suspend further operation of the … gas compressor unit in connection with the identified gross (safety) violations,” the company said.
Russia keeps pipeline shut as Gazprom, Siemens Energy wrangle - (Reuters) -Russia kept one of its main gas supply routes to Europe shut on Saturday, stoking fears of winter fuel shortages and spotlighting differences between Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) and Germany's Siemens Energy over repair work on the pipeline. Already struggling to tame soaring gas prices, European governments had expected the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to resume flows after a short maintenance this week but Russia abruptly cancelled the restart, citing an oil leak in a turbine. Europe has accused Russia of weaponising energy supplies in what Moscow has called an "economic war" with the West over the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Moscow blames Western sanctions and technical issues for supply disruptions. The latest Nord Stream shutdown, which Russia says will last for as long as it takes to carry out repairs, added to fears of winter gas shortages that could help tip major economies into recession and energy rationing. The discovery of the oil leak on Friday coincided with the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy democracies proceeding with plans to impose a price gap on Russian oil, intending to shrink President Vladimir Putin's resources to fight the war in Ukraine. Gas shortages also prompted European Union member Sweden on Saturday to unveil a financial support package for energy firms. "If we do not act, there is a serious risk of disruptions in the financial system, which in the worst case could lead to a financial crisis," said Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. "Putin wants to create division, but our message is clear: you will not succeed," she said. Gazprom said Siemens Energy was ready to carry out repairs on the pipeline but that there was nowhere available to carry out the work, a suggestion Siemens Energy denied, saying it had not been asked to do the job. Siemens Energy has also said that sanctions do not prohibit maintenance. Before the latest round of maintenance, Gazprom had already cut flows to just 20% of the pipeline's capacity. "Siemens is taking part in repair work in accordance with the current contract, is detecting malfunctions ... and is ready to fix the oil leaks. Only there is nowhere to do the repair," Gazprom said in a statement on its Telegram channel on Saturday. Siemens Energy said it had not been commissioned to carry out the work but was available, adding that the Gazprom-reported leak would not usually affect the operation of a turbine and could be sealed on site. "Irrespective of this, we have already pointed out several times that there are enough additional turbines available in the Portovaya compressor station for Nord Stream 1 to operate," a spokesperson for the company said. Flows through Nord Stream 1 were due to resume early on Saturday morning. But hours before it was set to start pumping gas, Gazprom published a photo on Friday of what it said was an oil leak on a piece of equipment. Siemens Energy, which supplies and maintains equipment at Nord Stream 1's Portovaya compressor station said on Friday the leak did not constitute a technical reason to stop gas flows.
Norway Displaces Russia As Europe's Biggest NatGas Supplier - The European Union is reducing its dependence on Russian natural gas and has made some progress. Norway has displaced Russia as the top supplier of NatGas to the EU as energy supply chains are rejiggered, reported Reuters, as Moscow reduces flows to EU countries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. According to government data in May, Norway ramped up NatGas production by at least 8% versus last year. This means the Scandinavian country could produce upwards of 122 billion cubic meters (bcm) of NatGas this year. Refinitiv Eikon data show Norway is now the largest supplier of NatGas to Europe, surpassing Russia, which has slashed Nord Stream capacity to just 20%. By Wednesday, the pipeline will undergo a surprise three-day shutdown for 'maintenance' work. Norwegian petroleum & energy minister Terje Aasland expects production levels can be sustained through the decade as new projects are coming online. This is undoubtedly a relief for the energy-stricken continent. "I expect that we can maintain the production levels we are at now until 2030. "We see that there are projects and also plans for development and operation coming now that can help maintain the high gas volumes going forward," Terje Aasland told Reuters in an interview.The energy minister said diversification of EU's Natgas supplies away from Russia is critical. He said, "this is an important message to get from the EU."
Exxon Takes Legal Action After Putin Blocks Final Russian Exit - Exxon Mobil Corp. took the first step toward filing a lawsuit against Russia after Vladimir Putin blocked the oil major from exiting its only remaining operation in the country. Exxon has been trying to exit the Sakhalin-1 project in the country’s Far East since March but was stalled by a presidential decree earlier this month. Russia’s state-owned Rosneft PJSC said the dispute could be resolved if Exxon resumes normal operations at the project. “We have provided a notice of difference to the Russian Federal Government regarding the decree, which inhibits our rights and impedes our ability to exit operations safely,” the Irving, Texas-based company said Tuesday in a statement. Putin tightened his control over Russia’s finance and energy sectors earlier this month by halting foreign companies from disposing of their assets as part of measures “to protect national interests.” The decree came just days after Exxon said it was in talks to move its 30% stake of Sakhalin-1 to a third party entity it didn’t identify. Sakhalin-1 is a hugely complex operation that produced about 227,000 barrels a day last year. It has multiple records for the longest wells ever drilled, uses ice breakers to maintain exports when the sea freezes over in winter and was regarded as an engineering marvel when it first started pumping in 2005. Exxon has been winding down output since May and it’s likely to be a steep technical challenge for the eventual new owner to safely ramp up production to prior levels. If production at Sakhalin-1 returns to normal, this could create conditions for resolving all disputes around the project, Russia’s state news agency Tass reported on Tuesday, citing a representative of Rosneft PJSC, another shareholder in the Far Eastern project with a 20% stake. Oil production at Sakhalin-1 has been practically halted since May 15 due to Exxon’s decision to withdraw from the project, Rosneft said earlier. There have been no crude exports from the De Kastri terminal, which serves Sakhalin-1, since the start of June, according to tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg. Earlier this month Russia ordered a new entity be created for Sakhalin-2, a separate gas project nearby in which Shell Plc was a major shareholder as well as Japanese trading houses Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co.
The Big Bet on Natural Gas Is Blowing Up in the World’s Face - It’s not clean, it’s not cheap, and it’s not a bridge fuel to anyplace good. Throughout the 2010s, natural gas was portrayed as a near-miraculous energy source that could fight climate change, lower energy costs, and clean up the environment. It would be a “bridge fuel” that would help eradicate coal and provide the on-demand power that renewable sources like solar and wind could not. “The natural gas boom has led to cleaner power, and greater energy independence,” President Obama boasted in a 2012 debate with Mitt Romney. “We’re encouraging it and working with the industry.” Much of the rest of the world took the same approach. Europe bet heavily on natural gas—especially Germany, which regeared its whole energy system around gas from Russia, thanks in part to years of effort from former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. A decade later, the supposed dream of natural gas has become a nightmare. Making energy cheaper? Utility and heating bills are skyrocketing. Providing abundant clean fuel? Shortages are causing a stampede back to coal. It’s a disaster.Energy costs are soaring across the world, led by the gas shortage caused by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Dutch gas futures contracts, which are widely used as a benchmark for Europe, have soared from about 20 euros per megawatt-hour’s worth of gas in mid-2021 to about280 euros today, with the most recent spike caused by Russia’s announcement that it would shut down its main gas pipeline for a few days.That in turn is fueling inflation: In July, the eurozone posted an 8.9 percent annual figure, the highest in its history, fueled mainly by gas prices. It might even get worse—Citigroup analysts predict that the U.K. might hit 18.6 percent inflation next year, again thanks mostly to gas. Meanwhile, these soaring European prices are placing gas supply beyond the reach of the rest of the world. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka have seen rolling blackouts thanks to expensive gas. Even in North America, where gas has traditionally been very cheap because it’s hard to transport to other continents, prices are surging thanks to the high price our exports now demand as they move through our recently constructed liquefied natural gas terminals to the EU market. The price of gas has compelled a turn back to coal power in countries like India, China, and Germany—and in Germany, the government is frantically restarting dirty, old plants that had been mothballed.
Shell CEO: Europe's Gas Crisis Could Continue For Multiple Winters - Europe could continue scrambling for gas supply for a number of winters due to low gas flows from Russia, according to the chief executive officer of supermajor Shell. “It may well be that we will have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions,” Shell’s top executive Ben van Beurden said at a conference in Norway on Monday, as carried by Reuters. Gas and power prices in Europe were setting fresh records every day of the past week, as natural gas supply from Russia continues to be limited ahead of the winter. Energy prices in Europe have been smashing records after Russia’s Gazprom said on August 19 that it would halt all deliveries via Nord Stream to Germany for three days between August 31 and September 2. This announcement raised renewed concerns that supply via the pipeline could be further cut or halted altogether after the three-day unplanned maintenance at the end of August. Soaring energy prices are fueling inflation and adding to the burden on households and industries across Europe. In France, year-ahead power prices surged as much as 13% on Friday alone, to $1,003 (1,000 euro) per megawatt-hour for the first time ever, per Bloomberg’s estimates. French power prices have now soared tenfold over the past year. Apart from rallying gas and power prices in the rest of Europe, France’s electricity supply is constrained by outages at some of its nuclear power plants. In Germany, year-ahead electricity prices also hit a record of $843 (840 euro) per MWh on Friday, surging by 50% last week alone.Last week, Europe’s benchmark gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub surged by 40% amid fears of a winter crunch in supplies. This week, early on Monday the benchmark gas price slumped by 16% in early trade in Amsterdam, after Germany said its gas storage sites were filling at a faster pace than previously thought. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the EU gas storage was over 79% full as of August 28, with Germany’s storage at nearly 83% full.
Elon Musk Warns The World Needs Oil & Gas Or "Civilization Will Crumble" - Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk told reporters in Norway on Aug. 29 that, while sustainable energy sources should be developed, the world must continue to extract oil and gas in order to sustain civilization. Musk made the remarks to reporters ahead of the Offshore Northern Shore (ONS) conference in Stavanger, Norway, where Musk is scheduled to speak.After Musk arrived at the conference venue, he told reporters he had come “in appreciation for the support of the Norwegian people for electric vehicles” and thanked them for their “tremendous support.”The Tesla chief added that, at the conference, he was planning to provide “ideas for a transition to a sustainable energy world,” including the possibility of expanding wind power generation in the North Sea, the body of water between the UK and Norway.“Places where it’s very windy, there might be potential for tremendous amount of wind power and when combined with stationary battery packs; this could be a very strong sustainable energy source in the winter,” Musk said. Asked if he believes oil and gas should continue to be used, Musk replied in the affirmative. “Realistically, we do need to use oil and gas in the short term because otherwise civilization will crumble,” he said. “In order for civilization to continue to function, we do need oil and gas,” he continued, adding that “any reasonable person would conclude that.”
TotalEnergies to divest 49% stake Russia’s Termokarstovoye gas field - French energy giant TotalEnergies has agreed to divest its 49% stake in Termokarstovoye gas and condensates field in Serbia, Russia to its local joint venture partner Novatek. The transaction includes the sale of Terneftegas, which operates the Termokarstovoye oil and gas field. Upon the completion of the transaction, Novatek will hold a 100% stake in the Terneftegas field, which includes a gas treatment unit, a gas gathering network, and a gas condensate de-ethanization facility.
Norway's Equinor Eyes Sale of Stake in Statfjord Offshore Field - Norway's Equinor is considering selling a 28% stake in the Statfjord field, which straddles the Norwegian and British continental shelves, alongside minority stakes in several satellite fields, a presentation seen by Reuters showed. The company has hired U.S. investment bank Houlihan Lokey to advise on the sale, which could fetch up to $500 million, a source familiar with the sale told Reuters. Equinor also plans to sell minority stakes in the connected fields Statfjord North, Statfjord East and Sygna, the presentation showed. Statfjord has been producing oil and gas for more than 40 years and, by the end of 2021, still had 107 million barrels of oil equivalent left, about half of which are gas reserves. In 2020, Equinor decided to extend the field's lifetime towards 2040, with a planned decommissioning of the Statfjord A platform postponed until 2027. Platforms Statfjord B and C are expected to operate beyond 2035. Statfjord produced 38,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2021, with gas accounting for more than a third, according to data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. Stafjord North, Stafjord East, and Sygna produced a total of nearly 16,000 boepd of mainly oil the same year. Oil from Statfjord is exported via shuttle tankers, while gas is piped to the St Fergus terminal in Britain. Equinor, which is expected to remain a stakeholder in the fields after any sales, now holds 78.6% of Statfjord, 45% of Statfjord North, 43.3% of Statfjord East, and 43.4% of Sygna.
Eni, TotalEnergies Strike Gas Offshore Cyprus at Cronos Wildcat - Partners Eni and TotalEnergies have confirmed a major gas discovery in the Cronos-1 wildcat exploration well in Cyprus’ deepwater Block 6, 160 km off the island’s coast in the Eastern Mediterranean. Preliminary estimates suggest the presence of nearly 2.5 Tcf of gas (70 Bcm) in place with significant additional upside to be evaluated with a new exploration well (Zeus-1) to be drilled next on Block 6, according to separate news releases issued by the companies. Vantage Drilling’s Tungsten Explorer conducted drilling operations at Cronos-1. The well encountered several good-quality carbonate reservoir intervals and confirmed earlier data acquisition campaigns that had suggested an overall net gas pay of more than 260 m with excellent permeability. Cronos-1 is the fourth exploration well drilled by Eni Cyprus and its second well in Block 6. Eni, together with TotalEnergies, drilled its first well in Block 6, Calypso-1, which was hailed as a success in February 2018 after it encountered an extended gas column of rocks of Miocene and Cretaceous age, with the Cretaceous sequence possessing excellent reservoir characteristics. Calypso-1 is significant because it confirms the extension of the Zohr field’s carbonate play into Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone, Eni reported at the time, referencing the massive Zohr gas field found in Egypt’s Shorouk block in 2015—the largest gas find to date in the Mediterranean. Eni and state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation operate Zohr through a 50/50 joint venture; participating partners include BP, the UAE’s Mubadala Petroleum, Russia’s Rosneft, and Egyptian Natural Gas Holding. The results from Cronos-1 further confirm that the petroleum-rich characteristics of Zohr’s geology extend along the seabed into Cypriot waters.
IEA: Russian Oil Output Still Exceeding Expectations -Six months into Russia’s war on Ukraine, Russia's oil output has continued to exceed expectations although experts are warning that Moscow will find it increasingly difficult to uphold production as Western sanctions begin to bite.According to the latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil exports fell by 115 kb/d in July to 7.4 mb/d, from about 8 mb/d at the start of the year. That decline is nowhere near the 2-3 million b/d slump predicted by some experts. The country’s crude and oil product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by nearly 2.2 mb/d since the outbreak of the war, two-thirds of which have been rerouted to other markets. Export revenues fell from 21 bn in June to $19 bn in July, on both reduced volumes and lower oil prices.Exports to India have been able to make up for much of the reduced flows to western nations. New reports have emerged that during the second quarter, Indiaslashed its crude imports from the United States by one million metric tonnes while sharply ramping up imports of discounted Russian oil.India’s energy mix now looks dramatically different from a year ago. Last year, Russian oil in India’s crude basket amounted to a paltry 2.2%, while the U.S. was 9.2%; right now, Russia accounts for nearly 12.9% of India’s crude imports, while the U.S. share has tumbled to just 5.4%.India has never been a big buyer of Russian crude despite having to import 80% of its needs. In a typical year, India imports just 2-5% of its crude from Russia, roughly the same proportion as the United States did before it announced a 100% ban on Russian energy commodities. Indeed, India imported only 12 million barrels of Russian crude in 2021, with the majority of its oil sourced from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria.However, the IEA says Russia will find it increasingly difficult to maintain that level of production."In the absence of (western) companies, in the absence of the technology providers, in the absence of service companies, it will be much harder for Russia to maintain the production," IEA chief Fatih Birol told Reuters.
G-7 leaders agree to set price cap on Russian oil — Financial officials representing the world's wealthiest democracies agreed to set a cap on the price of Russian oil on Friday, a key development in the West's economic campaign against the country amid its war with Ukraine. Top financial ministers representing the Group of Seven — the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Italy and the United Kingdom —— announced a deal had been made but that precise details would need to be ironed out in the coming weeks. The proposal is designed to stabilize global energy prices, which have swung wildly and helped fuel global inflation in the more than six months since the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine. In a joint statement, the G-7 financial officials said the eventual price would be "set at a level based on a range of technical inputs and will be decided by the full coalition in advance of implementation in each jurisdiction." In a separate statement published Friday morning, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the initial agreement a "critical step forward in achieving our dual goals of putting downward pressure on global energy prices while denying Putin revenue to fund his brutal war in Ukraine." "This price cap is one of the most powerful tools we have to fight inflation and protect workers and businesses in the United States and globally from future price spikes caused by global disruptions," Yellen said. "Today's action will help deliver a major blow for Russian finances and will both hinder Russia's ability to fight its unprovoked war in Ukraine and hasten the deterioration of the Russian economy."
G-7 announces price cap deal on Russian oil in win for Yellen - Finance ministers from the Group of Seven major economies announced an agreement Friday a plan to impose a cap on the price importers pay for Russian oil, in a bid to shrink a key source of revenue the Kremlin uses to finance its war in Ukraine. “We seek to establish a broad coalition in order to maximize effectiveness and urge all countries that still seek to import Russian oil and petroleum products to commit to doing so only at prices at or below the price cap,” the group said in a statement. The agreement, which still faces hurdles before it can be implemented, marks a win for U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a key advocate of the proposal who has helped build global support for the idea. Yellen said the price cap would prove a powerful tool to fight inflation and deliver “a major blow for Russia’s finances.” “By committing to finalize and implement a price cap on Russian oil, today the G-7 took a critical step forward in achieving our dual goals of putting downward pressure on global energy prices while denying [President Vladimir] Putin revenue to fund his brutal war in Ukraine,” she said in a statement. Several elements of the plan remain unclear, however, including how many countries will ultimately sign on, the price at which the cap will be set and how Putin will respond. The goal is to align the price cap’s effective date with new European sanctions set to take effect on Dec. 5 on shipping services for Russian oil exports. Under the agreement, importers that purchase Russian oil below the cap will be exempt from the new restrictions on financing and shipping services, which are largely provided by G-7 countries. That will allow oil to continue flowing while limiting Russia’s revenues, which have climbed in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. Treasury officials are working with their international counterparts to complete legal frameworks for the cap in each jurisdiction, which are expected to be unveiled in mid-October. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has said Russia will refuse to sell to countries that impose a cap, raising doubts about whether the plan The G-7 in its statement committed to working urgently to finalize the measure in each of its jurisdictions and acknowledged that implementation in the European Union will require unanimous agreement among all 27 member states. “The price cap is specifically designed to reduce Russian revenues and Russia´s ability to fund its war of aggression whilst limiting the impact of Russia´s war on global energy prices, particularly for low and middle-income countries, by only permitting service providers to continue to do business related to Russian seaborne oil and petroleum products sold at or below the price cap,” the statement read. Senior Treasury officials confirmed Friday the agreement would include three prices caps — one for crude oil, and two for refined products — that would be set at a particular dollar amount, not as a discount or percent of a benchmark price. Those prices, which are still being determined by the G-7 members, could be revised as needed, one of the senior officials said on a call with reporters. Some in the oil industry have warned the plan is overly complicated and will be difficult to implement, while economic and energy policy experts say it could have unintended consequences and push up the price of oil. Yellen has said the alternative would be worse — if the European sanctions take effect without a price cap exemption, it could lead to a catastrophic supply shock that sends energy prices soaring and triggers a global recession, she has said. U.S. oil prices, which had shot up in the morning to near $90 a barrel after the release of positive economic data, gave back some of the gains after Treasury’s announcement “Russia has aggressively pushed back at G7 proposals to cap oil prices, by saying they will cut off any price cap participants,” That threat could be more salient if OPEC decides to cut its own production at a meeting of the oil producing countries scheduled for Monday,
Russia Vows To Halt All Oil Exports To Countries That Impose "Completely Absurd" Price-Cap - It did not take long for the Kremlin to respond to the G-7 plan to impose price-caps on Russian oil, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warning that Moscow will ban exports of oil and other petroleum products to countries that impose a cap on the price of Russian crude. Novak made the remarks to reporters in Moscow on Sept. 1, according to Russian state media Tass, which came as Western powers were preparing to meet on Sept. 2 to agree on a Russian oil price cap. “We will simply not supply oil and petroleum products to such companies or states that impose restrictions, as we will not work non-competitively,” Novak said, while denouncing the price cap as “completely absurd.” “It will completely destroy the market,” Novak continued, arguing that interference in market mechanisms in a key commodity like oil would have a destabilizing impact on energy security in countries across the world. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen took the opportunity of G-7 agreement to a nothingburger plan to take a victory lap: "The price cap will advance our two key objectives; The first, of course, is reducing revenues that Putin needs to continue waging his war of aggression. And the second is maintaining a reliable supply of oil to the global market and putting downward pressure on the price of energy for people in the U.S., in the UK, and around the world." But, echoing Novak’s remarks about a Russian oil export ban targeting countries that sign onto the cap, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters during a conference call on Sept. 2 that “companies that impose a price cap will not be among the recipients of Russian oil.”
Moscow Says Western Sanctions Wont Hamper Russia-Iran Economic Cooperation - Hostile acts of the West and its sanctions against Iran and Russia will not stop the two countries from developing mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday. "In January-July 2022 the bilateral trade (between Russia and Iran) accounted for $2.7 billion, which is 42.7% more than in the same period last year," the ministry said. There has also been progress in negotiations on a comprehensive free-trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union, the ministry added. On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian will pay a working visit to Moscow and meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The ministers are expected to discuss the situation around the Iranian nuclear deal, joint Russian-Iranian energy and transport projects, as well as some regional topics such as Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan.
Iran Is Ready To Release Millions Of Barrels Of Oil Into The Market --Iran has considerable volumes of oil in floating storage that it could quickly release should a deal with the United States be finalized.In an update earlier this month, OilX claimed that Iran has some 40 million barrels, the bulk of which is probably condensate.Vortexa estimates Iranian crude in floating storage at 60 to 70 million barrels while Kpler has estimated them at 93 million barrels, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.The volumes would not be released immediately, however, as issues such as insurance and shipping would need to be dealt with first.“Iran has built up a sizable flotilla of cargoes that could hit the market fairly soon,” John Driscoll from JTD Energy Services told Bloomberg.Currently, Iran and the United States are both considering the final version of an agreement proposed by the European Union, which is acting as an intermediary in the negotiations.According to recent reports, some of the problems have been straightened out but others still remain and need to get resolved before a deal is finalized.Israel’s Haaretz reported yesterday that it had seen a copy of the draft proposal, which involves the release of prisoners from Iran and, in exchange, the release of Iranian funds from international bank accounts.Iran will be free to keep the uranium it had enriched so far but banned from violating the nuclear deal, the Israeli daily wrote.A nuclear deal would mean the return of Iranian crude to international markets, at a rate of some 1.3 million bpd, according to a recent Financial Times report. This would substantially lower oil prices, at least for a while.Iran is eager to boost its exports of crude but it has signaled it would not rush into a deal until its last remaining demands are made. Chief among them is a guarantee that the deal would survive during future U.S. administrations.
Iran may drain offshore crude oil cache if nuclear agreement reached - Progress toward an Iranian nuclear deal has thrown the spotlight onto a sizeable cache of crude held by Tehran that could be swiftly dispatched to buyers in the event an agreement gets hammered out. About 93 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate are currently stored on vessels in the Persian Gulf, off Singapore and near China, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, while Vortexa Ltd. estimates the holdings at 60 to 70 million barrels. In addition, there are smaller volumes in onshore tanks. “Iran has built up a sizable flotilla of cargoes that could hit the market fairly soon,” said John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte. Still, it may take “a bit of time” to iron out insurance and shipping issues, as well as spot and term sales post-sanctions, he said. The possible full readmittance of Iran to the global crude market, with the potential lifting of US sanctions, comes at complex moment for oil traders. Investors are juggling the countdown toward far tighter European Union curbs on Russian crude flows from December as part of the the bloc’s pushback against the war in Ukraine. In addition, the Biden administration’s mammoth sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will end in October. The potential return of Iranian barrels into global oil markets -- both from the volumes in floating storage and over the longer term -- has weighed on futures prices in recent weeks, offsetting signs of tightness elsewhere. The focus for diplomats is the revival of a multinational accord that limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of related sanctions, including on oil flows. The original deal collapsed after then-President Donald Trump abandoned it. Last week, the US sent its response to the latest proposal, boosting speculation an agreement may soon be struck, although Tehran said Sunday that exchanges will now drag on into September. Iran’s offshore crude hoard compares with average daily global supply this year of about 100 million barrels a day, according to an estimate from the International Energy Agency. In the US, President Joe Biden has been releasing about 180 million barrels from the SPR over a six-month period. Since former President Trump stopped granting waivers to import Iranian oil following American sanctions, Iran’s daily shipments have held at about 1 million barrels, according to Emma Li, an analyst at Vortexa. China has remained among the top buyers, as other nations backed away. Longer term after any deal is struck and the offshore cache is drained, Iran would seek to rebuild production and step up overseas sales. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which is skeptical about a breakthrough in the near term, said even if a deal is reached, these wouldn’t begin until 2023, according to a note. While Iran may aim to fill the void left by Russia in Europe, namely in Spain, Italy, Greece and even Turkey, Tehran would also attempt to reclaim share in the prized Asian market, even if it takes a sweetening of terms, Driscoll said.
ONGC to add 100,000 sq km of new exploration area annually - India’s top oil & gas producer ONGC plans to add around 100,000 sq km of new exploration area annually to take the total exploratory acreage to 500,000 sq km by 2024-25. Addressing the shareholders in the company’s annual general meeting (AGM) on Monday, ONGC’s acting chairman and managing director Alka Mittal said, “Your company has launched a very ambitious exploration programme under which it plans to increase the exploratory acreage to 5 lakh sq km by 2024-25 with an addition of around one lakh sq km of new exploration area annually.”
Egypt's Zohr gas field production jumps to 2.7bln cubic meters daily - The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced that Zohr gas field achieved a record during Fiscal Year 2021-2022 since the start of production in 2017-2018. Current production from Zohr gas field jumped to 2.7 billion cubic meters per day, the ministry said on Monday. The ministry clarified in a statement that the volume of investments in the gas field hit 741 million dollars during the relevant year. Investments have exceeded US$12 billion since the beginning of work in the field, it added. Tarek El Molla, Egyptian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, said that there are good opportunities in search and explorations in land and sea sites in order to up petroleum and oil reserves and production.
Libya’s oil production rises to 1.22 million bpd – NOC – The National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced Monday that Libya’s production of crude oil amounted to one 1.22 million barrels on Sunday, with an increase of 1,000 barrels compared to the production of the day before. The corporation reported that condensate production was 53,000 barrels on Sunday. This comes while global crude oil prices increased, as Brent crude rose 55 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $ 101.54 a barrel. The rise was affected by expectations that OPEC would cut production if necessary to support prices, in addition to the events in Tripoli the past two days, as well as increased demand amid high natural gas prices in Europe, to compensate for the poor outlook for growth in the United States.
Oil tanker runs aground in Suez Canal sparking major recovery effort on key trade route - A 64,000-tonne oil tanker ran aground in the Suez Canal sparking a massive recovery operation on the major international trade route. Tug boats were sent to help free the Affinity V with immediate fears that there could be a repeat of the Ever Given ship that was stuck for three months in Egypt.World trade ground to a halt with the Ever Given, that had 18,300 containers on board, completely blocking the Suez Canal last year.Now the Singapore-flagged Affinity V ran aground with GPS imaging showing the ship blocking the entire width of the canal in a similar way to the Ever Given.Five tug boats were seen working on releasing the ship on Wednesday night which was blocking the canal at the 143 kilometre channel and preventing traffic to pass. Now the Suez Canal Authority has said that the ship has been freed and refloated.It took around five hours to free the stranded ship and that traffic on the Suez Canal has already returned to normal.The cause of the accident has been put down to a problem with the rudder and the steering system.The Suez Canal Authority tweeted: "Lieutenant-General Osama Rabie, head of the Suez Canal Authority, announced today, Thursday, the success of the rescue units and the authority’s tugs in saving and floating the 64 thousand-ton fuel tanker AFFINITY."It ran aground at the 143 kilometre channel due to a technical malfunction with the ship’s rudder, which caused the loss of the ability to steer and left the ship stranded." The canal authority explained that five tugs were used in the rescue mission to quickly return shipping to normal.
Oil leaking from stricken cargo ship off Gibraltar - A bulk carrier that collided with a liquefied natural gas tanker off Gibraltar is leaking fuel oil, the government of the tiny British territory said Thursday. The carrier — the OS 35 — has been beached in the Bay of Gibraltar since the two vessels collided late on Monday off the territory located on the southern tip of the Iberian peninsula. No one was injured in the accident. The 24 crew members of the carrier were evacuated. A boom — a temporary floating barrier used to contain an oil spill — had been placed in the area of the collision. “The Gibraltar Port Authority has confirmed a leak of heavy fuel oil a small amount of which has escaped the perimeter of the boom,” the government of Gibraltar said in a statement. In a separate statement, it added the leak “is fully under control”. “The priority is to corral and collect the free floating oil that has escaped the boom, as well as to remove the oil that has remained contained inside the boom,” it added. The Port Authority said later Thursday it had begun to pump the oil out of OS 35’s fuel tanks and a skimmer was removing oil from the surface of the water inside the boom./p>
Jordan may need specialist help to clean up Aqaba oil spill - Jordanian authorities are still working to clean up oil that leaked from ship two weeks ago and washed up in a marine reserve along its Aqaba coast on the Red Sea, officials and residents said. After announcing that the August 14 spill in Jordanian territorial waters was minor and would be contained within hours, state television said on Sunday that 11 tonnes of spilled fuel oil caused "damage to a number of piers at the container terminal and the passenger port and to a number of Aqaba's southern beaches". State television said the leak "spread to large areas over three days because of the wind and waves, and a large proportion reached the beaches". "Some divers were exposed to oil spots when entering and exiting the water," the report said. The coastline of the Aqaba Marine Reserve, which contains the kingdom's only surviving coral reef, is 12 kilometres long. The environment in the Gulf of Aqaba, shared by Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, has been severely degraded by decades of overfishing, waste disposal, heavy coastal construction and industrial contamination. A Jordanian official told The National that government teams would require more equipment and knowhow to deal with the spill in hard-to-reach places at the port and in other areas of Aqaba. “Our cadets picked up a significant amount of oil already but in certain areas it will require more specialist knowhow to clean it up,” the official, who did not want to be named, said. Residents of Aqaba say oil spots have appeared on the coastline and that diving has been halted in several locations. Video footage taken by one resident showed crabs covered with oil on the coastline. "The spill is obvious in several parts of the coast and we can can feel and smell it when we go in the water," said one Aqaba resident, who did not want to be identified. "You can see it in shallow water covering the top of the corals."
Oil Spill Incidents in Nigeria Decline by 13.5% - The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) has disclosed that a minimum of 383 oil spill incidents were recorded in 2021, lower than the 443 spills recorded in 2020 by 13.5 per cent. In its latest oil spill report, NOSDRA stated that 33 of the 383 publicly available oil spill records for 2021 were not visited by a joint investigative team, while 122 of these spills had no estimated quantity provided by the company operating the assets from which the spills occur. The oil spill remediation agency disclosed that based on available 23,897.271 barrels of crude oil, about 3.776 million litres were spilled, an equivalent of 119 tanker trucks full. It further noted that the total spills in 2021 comprised two major oil spills, a situation where over 250 barrels of crude oil were spilled into inland waters, or over 2,500 barrels spilled on land, swamp, shoreline, and the open sea. In addition, it stated that seven medium oil spills were recorded, a situation whereby 25-250 barrels of oil were spilled into inland waters, or 250-2,500 barrels spilled on land, swamp, shoreline, and the open sea. Also, 240 minor oil spills were recorded, whereby up to 25 barrels were spilled into inland waters, or 250 barrels spilled on land, swamp, shoreline, and the open sea. It added that 175 of these oil spills were under 10 barrels in size, while 128 oil spills could not be categorised. NOSDRA stated that currently, there are no legally binding regulatory penalties or fines for oil spills in Nigeria, noting, however, that companies whose assets are responsible for the spill are required to fund the clean-up of each spill and usually pay compensation to local communities affected, especially if the spill was a fault of the company’s. “A recent court case related to repeated oil spills in the Bodo area of Ogoniland argues that a failure by companies to adequately protect pipelines from vandalism or theft or continuing to operate when vandalism or theft is rife, constitutes culpability on behalf of the pipeline operator. The government agency further stated that all operators are required by law to close off or stop all oil spills emanating from their assets within 24 hours of being notified of an oil spill in their jurisdiction, while a Joint Investigative Visit (JIV) must be carried out as soon as possible after a spill has been identified and containment measures are taken.
UN raises alarm on Red Sea oil tanker 'time-bomb' - – The UN appealed Tuesday for the last $14 million needed to try and prevent a stricken oil tanker from triggering a disaster off Yemen that could cost $20 billion to clean up. The decaying 45-year-old FSO Safer, long used as a floating storage platform and now abandoned off the rebel-held Yemeni port of Hodeida, has not been serviced since Yemen was plunged into civil war more than seven years ago. If it breaks up, it could unleash a potentially catastrophic spill in the Red Sea. David Gressly, the United Nations’ resident and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen, leads UN efforts on the Safer. “Less then $14 million is now needed to reach the $80 million target to start the emergency operation to transfer oil from the Safer to a safe vessel,” said Gressly’s communications advisor Russell Geekie. “We’re deeply concerned. If the FSO Safer continues to decay, it could break up or explode at any time,” he told reporters in Geneva, via video-link from Sanaa. “The volatile currents and strong winds from October to December will only increase the risk of disaster. If we don’t act, the ship will eventually break apart and a catastrophe will happen. It’s not a question of if, but when.” He said the result would potentially be the fifth largest oil spill from a tanker in history, with the clean-up costs alone reaching $20 billion. The Safer contains four times the amount of oil that was spilled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster, one of the world’s worst ecological catastrophes, according to the UN. “It would unleash an environmental, economic and humanitarian catastrophe,” said Geekie. The ship contains 1.1 million barrels of oil. The UN has said a spill could destroy ecosystems, shut down the fishing industry and close the lifeline Hodeida port for six months. The Safer is unusable, is fit only for scrappage and nothing on it works, said Geekie. “This is a ticking time bomb,” he warned. “You don’t want to go and smoke a cigarette on the deck, I can tell you that much.”
Decaying Ship Could Produce Massive Oil Spill off Yemen Coast — The United Nations warns of a catastrophic oil spill off the Red Sea coast of Yemen if oil from a decaying tanker ship is not loaded onto a safer vessel. U.N. officials say an emergency operation cannot be implemented until they have the necessary $80 million in hand. They say donors have pledged $66 million, leaving $14 million to reach the amount needed to start transferring oil from the FSO Safer to a more stable vessel. The problem, they say, is that very few of the donors have yet to honor their pledges and put the money in the bank. Russell Geekie, senior communications adviser to the U.N. resident and humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, says less than $10 million of the pledged funding has been received. "The FSO Safer continues to decay and could break up or explode at any time," Geekie said from the capital, Sanaa. "The volatile currents and strong winds from October to December will only increase the risk of disaster. If we do not act, the ship will eventually break apart, and the catastrophe will happen. It is not a question of if, but when." The FSO Safer contains more than a million barrels of oil. It has been anchored just a few kilometers off the coast of Yemen for more than 30 years. Oil from the vessel stopped being offloaded and maintenance ground to a halt when civil war between the government and Houthi rebels broke out in 2015. Geekie calls the current situation a ticking time bomb. Were the ship to break apart, he warns the oil spill would unleash an environmental, humanitarian and economic calamity. "We need a relatively small amount of money to prevent something that would cost $20 billion just for the cleanup alone," he said. "That would decimate the Red Sea coast of Yemen, put 200,000 people in the fishing industry out of work overnight — not to mention all the toxic fumes and other toxins that would be on the shoreline." He says the oil spill also would close the ports of Hodeida and Saleef, where humanitarian aid — food, fuel and other lifesaving supplies — come into Yemen. The United Nations calls Yemen one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world. It says nearly 24 million people need international assistance, more than half of them children. An estimated 377,000 people have been killed through direct and indirect causes over more than seven years of warfare.
Saudi Arabia New Output Cuts Threat Is Another Blow To Washington - Saudi Arabia’s threat last week to lead the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) into a concerted cutting of its collective crude oil production – which would lead to even higher prices over a longer period – marks the end of the U.S.’s and the West’s Middle East dream.This dream, as analysed in my new book on the global oil markets, began in earnest on 26 May 1908 when an oil drilling team led by British geologist, George Reynolds, struck oil at Well No. 1 at the Masjid Sulaiman field in Persia (partly now modern-day Iran). The 28 May 1901 concession for Reynolds’ employer – William Knox D’Arcy – to explore, drill, produce, and export petroleum in Iran (excluding five northern provinces close to Russia) for a period of 60 years, included the provision that Persia was to be given £20,000 in cash, £20,000 in shares from the company that operated the concession, and 16 percent of the profits made by the first or any other company formed by this concessionaire.Shortly after the Masjid Sulaiman discovery, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company was founded, and in 1914, a 51 percent stake in the company was bought by the UK government, and in 1954 it changed its name to the British Petroleum Company.At around the same time, Mohammad Mosaddegh, the highly popular prime minister of Iran, nationalised the UK company’s Iranian infrastructure assets, and renamed the new entity the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). Shortly after this, a military coup organised jointly between the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) and the U.S.’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) codenamed, respectively, ‘Operation Boot’ and ‘Operation Ajax’, removed Mossadegh from power, which enabled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to increase his hold over the country, backed particularly by the U.S. and the UK.A similar tale unravelled in Saudi Arabia, the concession deal for which made Iran’s pre-1951 oil profit share of 16 percent look positively generous. To secure the exclusive rights to explore, drill, produce, and export petroleum across the entirety of Saudi Arabia, the U.S.’s Standard Oil made a single payment of US$275,000 in April 1933 (equivalent to just over US$6 million now) to the Kingdom.For Middle Eastern countries, these facts – to this day – are still well known and inform their view on dealing with the West, which has long been regarded by them as being an occupier of the region simply to exploit its oil and gas resources for as little outlay as possible.The first few signs of widespread and concerted action by Middle East states to counter what they regarded as the West’s stranglehold over their natural resources came with the formation of the United Arab Republic union between Egypt and Syria from 1958 to 1961, the formation of OPEC in 1960, the series of conflicts with neighbouring Israel over the period, and then the 1973/74 Oil Embargo.During this embargo, effectively the first ‘Oil Price War’, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, OPEC members plus Egypt, Syria and Tunisia began to block oil exports to the U.S., the UK, Japan, Canada and the Netherlands. This was in response to the U.S. supplying arms to Israel in the Yom Kippur War that it was fighting against a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. The spiking effect in oil prices was exacerbated by incremental cuts to oil production by OPEC members over the period and by the end of the embargo in March 1974 the price of oil had risen from around US$3 per barrel (pb) to nearly US$11 pb and then it trended higher again.Saudi Arabia’s then-Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani – widely credited with formulating the Embargo strategy – highlighted that it marked: “A fundamental shift in the world balance of power between the developing nations that produced oil and the developed industrial nations that consumed it.”This history and these ideas are precisely where the global oil and gas market is now, and exactly the reason why Saudi Arabia’s current Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said what he did about OPEC being ready to cut crude oil production and, by extension, see oil prices rise higher for longer.
Oil Surges As Supply Takes Center Stage - Oil’s recent rebound has the potential to run further as traders will turn their focus to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting now Jackson Hole is out of the way, Bloomberg's Sungwoo Park writes. Crude is sharply extending gains on Monday, suggesting oil is now focused more on supply dynamics following the recent Saudi pivot than on a hawkish Powell. Indeed, the medium-term outlook for crude has improved since the Saudi energy minister’s comments on potential supply curbs last week, with more OPEC+ members aligning themselves with the kingpin. These add key support to the positive backdrop on the supply side amid a prolonged energy crisis in Europe, along with the prospect of renewed exports from Iran getting undermined lately (just as we have been warning all along for the past year).That should help overshadow bearish factors, especially fears about demand destruction amid recession risks. Oil’s timespreads remain in backwardation (which is of coursebullish).With OPEC+ taking the driver’s seat again, crude can get a fresh impetus if the alliance delivers what the oil bulls want to hear - or a surprise beyond expectations - at the Sept. 5 meeting.Finally, a reminder that perhaps the main reason why oil prices haven't exploded even higher is the weekly drain of ~5 million in oil from the SPR. However, all that is ending in two months at which point the SPR will shift from a tailwind to a headwind for lower energy prices. It's also why, in what appears a sheer act of desperation, the IEA's head Fatih Birol just blurted out confirmation to what Zoltan Pozsar said, namely that a commodity supply panic is imminent, saying that a further SPR releases is "not off the table." Not off the table? Does he plan on taking it negative?
NYMEX WTI Futures Spike 4 Percent amid Low Liquidity on TS Watch -Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled the session mixed, with crude futures moving sharply higher, as traders monitor the development of a potential Tropical Storm, Invest 91L, over the central Atlantic as well as a system that is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa later this week. DTN WeatherOps on Monday said Invest 91L has significantly picked up strength and is now forecast to possibly become a tropical depression in about 36 to 40 hours with a gradual strengthening through the end of the forecast period. 91L could become a tropical storm in about 48 hours, with DTN forecasting a 40% chance of intensifying into a category one hurricane over the next several days. Among other disturbances being monitored this week is Feature 18L, a small but well-defined formation of low-level clouds spinning over the open waters off the coast of Africa. Oil traders will closely monitor the two systems as we move into the peak season for hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, with the hurricane season which began June 1 so far a nonevent for the U.S. oil and gas industry this year. Further supporting the oil complex, Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of OPEC+, expressed its support last week for agreeing to cut crude oil production when they meet Sept. 5, which would likely tighten the global market heading into colder months. In August, OPEC+ agreed on a token 100,000 bpd increase in collective output that takes effect Sept. 1, citing "limited spare capacity in a number of members." Analysts believe Saudi Arabia wants to see higher oil prices to incentivize new production and does not want the return of Iranian barrels after talks over ending sanctions on Tehran moved into the final stages. EU, U.S., and Iranian negotiators appear to have reached some sort of breakthrough in their 14-month effort to bring Tehran back into compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action which the United States withdrew from in 2018. Volatility in equity markets follows a hawkish speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell late last week who reiterated that interest rates are going higher for longer even if higher rates tip the U.S. economy into recession. The hawkish address appeared to quash a market narrative that the central bank would change course from an aggressive path of increasing the federal funds rate. On the session, West Texas Intermediate futures for October delivery settled a tad above $97 bbl, up $3.95 bbl, with open interest for WTI futures at their lowest point since December 2014. The international crude benchmark Brent contract advanced $4.10 to $105.09 bbl. NYMEX September RBOB futures gained 2.63 cents to $2.8776 gallon, while the September ULSD contract declined 9.77 cents to $3.9099 gallon.
Crude oil prices slip as inflation outweighs possible OPEC+ output cuts; Brent hits $104.70/bbl - Oil prices fell on Tuesday after notching their highest gains in more than a month in the previous session, as global inflation worries overshadowed the prospect of possible OPEC+ output cuts. Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.3%, to $104.70 a barrel by 0012 GMT after climbing 4.1% on Monday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $96.79 a barrel, down 21 cents, or 0.2%, following a 4.2% rise in the previous session. Inflation is near double-digit territory in many of the world's biggest economies, a level not seen in close to a half century, and investors are concerned that more aggressive interest rate hikes will follow from the United States and Europe. Also weighing on prices, Russia's oil output has exceeded expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday. But he said that Moscow - which calls its actions in Ukraine "a special operation" - will find it increasingly difficult to uphold production as Western sanctions begin to bite. IEA members nations could release more oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) if they find it necessary when the current scheme expires, the head of the agency also said.
Oil down as interest rate hike cues fuel demand fears - Oil prices decreased on Tuesday as signs of more aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks fuel recession and demand fears. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $102.59 per barrel at 09.26 a.m. local time (0626 GMT) for a 0.33% decline from the closing price of $102.93 a barrel in the previous trading session. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $96.91 per barrel at the same time for a 0.10% fall after the previous session closed at $97.01 a barrel. Oil prices came under pressure due to concerns over an economic slowdown as central banks are expected to make more aggressive interest rate hikes. The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said Friday that the Fed deliberately moved its policy stance to a level that would be restrictive enough to reduce inflation to 2%. He also acknowledged the rate hike at the July meeting was the second 75 basis points increase and an unusually large increase might be more appropriate at the next meeting. "Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the aggregate of incoming data and the evolving outlook," said Powell. Meanwhile, the recent unrest in OPEC's second-largest oil producer, Iraq, fueled supply fears and limited the downward pressure on prices. At least 13 protesters were killed Monday after supporters of Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed the Republican Palace, the seat of the Iraqi government in Baghdad, according to local media. More than 350 protesters were also injured in the unrest. Authorities urged Iraqis to abide by a nationwide curfew and instructions from the security apparatus. The situation deteriorated in Baghdad earlier Monday after al-Sadr said he was quitting politics for good. The Republican Palace is in the heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses government agencies and several foreign diplomatic missions. Iraqi parties have been unable to form a new government since the last elections on Oct. 10, 2021.
Crude Oil Plummets 5% on Reports of US-Iran Nuclear Deal -- Oil futures nearest delivery accelerated losses in afternoon trade Tuesday, sending the international crude benchmark below $100 per barrel (bbl). The move was in reaction to unconfirmed reports that the United States, European Union and Iran have reached an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions on its crude oil exports, leading to a full readmittance of Iran into the global oil market. Media airwaves were hit with reports on Tuesday suggesting Western allies have reached an agreement with Tehran to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Pact of Action, to be announced in the next two or three weeks, according to the former International Atomic Energy Agency official. It must be noted that the news did not come from an official source either in Iran, EU or the U.S. and must be taken with a grain of salt. Still, oil prices tumbled more than 5% in reaction to the breaking news that could bring Iran back into the global oil market. Tehran holds a sizable cache of crude in its offshore storage that could be immediately dispatched to buyers even if an agreement doesn't come into full force until later this year. According to ship tracking firm Kpler, around 93 million bbl of Iranian crude and condensate are currently stored on vessels in the Persian Gulf, off Singapore and near China, while Vortexa Ltd. estimates the holdings at 60 million to 70 million bbl. In addition, there are smaller volumes in onshore tanks. This could offer immediate relief to European buyers, for instance, bracing for the embargo on Russian oil embargo that comes into full effect in January 2023. In the EU, gas futures traded at Dutch Title Transfer Facility continued lower for the second straight session on Tuesday amid the reports the European Commission is planning to step into energy markets by capping the price of natural gas. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remarked on Monday that the commission is currently working on the mechanism to de-link natural gas prices from electricity costs. Power prices across the EU spiked nearly ten-fold over the past few months, prompting widespread shutdowns of industrial operations and inflicting pain on struggling consumers. This month, consumer sentiment in the EU plunged to a negative 24.9, the second-lowest reading on record after a negative 25 recorded in April 2020. At settlement, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate futures plummeted $5.37 or more than 5% to $91.64 per bbl while international crude benchmark Brent for October delivery settled below $100 per bbl ahead of contract expiration Wednesday afternoon and the next-month November contract settled at a $1.47 discount to the front month. NYMEX September RBOB futures fell more than 18 cents to $2.6944 per gallon, and the October contract expanded its discount to 16.41 cents. NYMEX September ULSD futures retreated 9.28 cents to $3.8171 per gallon, and the October ULSD contract settling the session at $3.7778 a gallon. Both September RBOB and ULSD contracts expire Wednesday afternoon.
Oil slides more than 6% on inflation and Iraq exports - Oil prices fell more than $7 a barrel on Tuesday, the steepest decline in about a month, on fears that an inflation-induced weakening of global economies would soften fuel demand and as unrest in Iraq has failed to put a dent in the OPEC nation's crude exports. Brent crude futures for October settlement declined 5.5% to end the day at $99.31 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined $5.37, or 5.5%, to settle at $91.64 per barrel. Inflation is near double-digit territory in many of the world's biggest economies. This could prompt central banks in the United States and Europe to resort to more aggressive interest rate increases, which could slow economic growth and weigh on fuel demand. The European Central Bank should include a 75 basis-point interest rate hike among its options for the September policy meeting given exceptionally high inflation, Estonian policymaker Madis Muller said on Tuesday. German inflation rose to its highest level in almost 50 years in August, beating a high set only three months earlier, data showed. Hungary's central bank raised its base rate by 100 basis points to 11.75%. Bets on another oversized Fed rate hike also pushed up the dollar. A stronger greenback is generally bearish as it makes it more expensive for buyers with other currencies in the dollar-denominated oil market. Prices tumbled after comments from Iraq's state-owned marketer SOMO that the country's oil exports are unaffected by unrest, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Baghdad's worst fighting in years between Shi'ite Muslim groups continued for a second day. Still, SOMO said it can redirect more oil to Europe if required. Prices felt more pressure when Russia's fastest-growing oil producer, Gazprom Neft, said it plans to double oil production at its Zhagrin field in Western Siberia to more than 110,000 barrels per day. Investors will watch the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, on Sept. 5. Saudi Arabia last week raised the possibility of production cuts from OPEC+, which sources said could coincide with a boost in supply from Iran should it clinch a nuclear deal with the West. .
WTI Slips Lower After API Reports Unexpected Crude Build - Oil prices tumbled hard today after reports confirmed that Iraqi crude exports were so far unaffected by the turmoil in the country. “Demonstrations and acts of violence in Iraq did not affect the operations of Iraqi oil exports through the southern ports,” Additionally, a source in one of the OPEC+ delegations told Russian news agency TASS that OPEC+ are not currently discussing the possibility of oil production cuts. “The market is hoping for a solution in Iraq, but, until such time, a notoriously volatile country will keep the market nervous,” All of this was exaggerated by an abysmal lack of liquidity in markets. API
- Crude +593k (-1.9mm exp)
- Cushing -599k
- Gasoline -3.414mm (-1.3mm exp)
- Distillates -1.726mm (-1.2mm exp)
Analysts expected a 3rd week of crude draws last week (and 4th week of Gasoline stock declines). but they were disappointed as API reported a surprise crude build... Decent product draws however suggest demand remains. Also of note is that API reported a drawdown in Cushing stocks, the first in 9 weeks...
WTI Extends Losses Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw - Crude prices extended yesterday's losses this morning with WTI trading back below $90 briefly as recession fears combined with lower anxiety over Iraq disruptions were exacerbated by a collapse in liquidity in the futures market."Crude oil's bounce from a six-month low has faded fast following Friday's hawkish message from Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, which once again raised concerns that the central banks aggressive stance towards combatting runaway inflation would mean lower growth and with that lower demand for crude oil and fuel products," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.Slowing demand in China, the world's largest importer, is also adding to expectations for weaker demand, as the country imposed fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in the cities of Dalian and Shenzhen, while factory orders fell in August. Also adding to the drop, OPEC's technical committee, reporting ahead of the OPEC+ monthly meeting on Sept.5, raised its estimate for the surplus of supply in the global market to 0.9-million barrels day, up from its July report estimating a surplus of 0.8-million bpd, according to reports.The API-reported crude build also piled on some additional selling pressure at the margin.All algo's eyes will be on the official data to confirm that build.DOE
- Crude -3.326mm (-1.9mm exp)
- Cushing -523k
- Gasoline -1.172mm (-1.3mm exp)
- Distillates +112k (-1.2mm exp)
Shunning API's reported build, the official data showed US crude stocks drew-down for the 3rd straight week. Cushing stocks drew down for the firs time in 9 weeks. Distillates inventories rose while gasoline stocks fell once again...US gasoline demand remained below 2020 levels last week...Drilling activity is stalling out for the first time since it began to recover in September 2020. Over the past two years, the rig count has marched forward at a consistent clip of about five new rigs a week -- until this month, that is.WTI was hovering around $90.50 ahead of the official data and slipped a little lower after...
Oil Prices Slump Again, Hit by Demand Concerns - -Oil prices extended their slide on Wednesday, led lower by worries that the global economy would slow further with renewed restrictions to curb COVID-19 in China. Brent crude futures for October due to expire on Wednesday, settled at $96.49, down $2.82 a barrel, or 2.8%. The more active November contract lost $2.20 to $95.64 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended down $2.09, or 2.3%, at $89.55 a barrel. "The weakness coming out of China has played a significant role" in lowering prices,. "There are fears of demand destruction across the West as interest rates rise and inflation concerns grip Western economies." The market has been primarily concerned with inadequate supply in the months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and as OPEC struggled to increase output. That drove near-term contracts to a sharp premium over later-dated futures earlier this year, but that pattern has reversed somewhat as output has increased. Both OPEC and the United States saw production hit its highest levels since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, with OPEC's output hitting 29.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the most recent month, according to a Reuters survey, while U.S. output rose to 11.82 million bpd in June. Both are at their highest levels since April 2020. "The fear that there’s a slowdown here and then also the potential here for some additional supply increases coming down the pike is having some pressure on the market," The Joint Technical Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, said it now sees an oil surplus this year of 400,000 bpd, up 100,000 bpd from its forecast a month earlier. Some OPEC+ members have called for cuts. The group is next due to meet on Sept. 5 amid weakening demand in Asia that spurred Saudi Arabia to lower its official selling prices to that region. U.S. crude stocks fell by 3.3 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday, while gasoline stocks were down 1.2 million barrels. [EIA/S] China's factory activity extended declines in August due to new COVID infections, the worst heat wave in decades and an embattled property sector that weighed on production, suggesting the economy will struggle to sustain momentum. Parts of China's southern city of Guangzhou imposed COVID curbs on Wednesday, joining the tech hub of Shenzhen in battling flare-ups.
Oil Futures Deepen Losses After China Locks Down Tech Hub -- Oil futures extended losses into the first trading session of September after China announced a COVID lockdown for a megacity of 21 million people in Sichuan province, a key manufacturing hub for Western technology and automaker brands, in a move that weakens oil demand and further disrupts global supply chains. All of China's 31 provinces have reported COVID-19 infections in the past ten days, according to Chinese health authorities, a troubling sign for the world's second largest economy as it battles yet another resurgence of the Omicron variant. Chinese metropolis of Chengdu with a population larger than some European countries will go into full lockdown Thursday after the discovery of a cluster of COVID-19 cases that triggered Beijing's "zero-COVID" policy of mass-testing and limited personal movement. The city accounts for about 1.7% of China's gross domestic product and is home to major technology and automakers companies, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Foxconn Technology Group, the world's largest assembler of Apple Inc.'s iPhones, and Intel Corp. among others. Compounding the pain for global supply chains, authorities in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen this week tightened restrictions on movement and deployed mass-testing after a sudden outbreak at a factory. In total, 41 cities that are responsible for 32% of China's GDP are currently in the midst of a COVID outbreak, according to Capital Economics. The China lockdowns are troubling news for a global oil market plagued by growing signs of demand destruction in the United States and the European Union. U.S. gasoline consumption fell to 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks of August -- well below the 2021 consumption rate and on par with 2020 when travel restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic were still in place limiting personal movement. Nationally, prices at the gas pump fell every day in August but did little to lure Americans back to the roads. With summer driving season officially ending with the Labor Day holiday (9/5), there is little hope that gasoline demand would improve above its historic norms heading into the colder months. Prospects for distillate demand don't look much brighter. EIA data show distillate consumption in the United States eroded for the third consecutive week through Aug. 26 to 3.566 million bpd -- the lowest level since the week leading up to July 4th holiday. Against last year's level, distillate fuel supplied to the U.S. market fell 824,000 bpd or over 18%. Demand for middle distillate fuel typically correlates closely with economic activity that is expected to weaken further as the Federal Reserve moves to fight historically high inflation. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.79 to $87.77 barrel (bbl), while international crude benchmark Brent for November delivery traded at $93.67 bbl, down $1.97. NYMEX October RBOB futures fell nearly 6 cents to trade at $2.3718 gallon, with NYMEX October ULSD futures retreated 18.76 cents to $3.4798 gallon.
Oil Sinks Further in Test of OPEC's Resolve Amid Demand Concerns - Oil fell to a two-week low amid escalating concerns about worldwide demand while a broader risk-off sentiment weighed on assets from metals to equities. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 3.3% to settle at $86.61 a barrel on Thursday. Investors are focusing on tightening monetary policy around the world that could crimp economic growth and hit oil demand. The lockdown of the Chinese megacity of Chengdu to contain a Covid-19 outbreak added to the negative sentiment. “The oil benchmarks have started September lower as signs that the global economy is heading towards murky waters grow ever-more apparent,” . “There has been a wider shift away from risk assets in recent days and this has accelerated as bets are on” for a 75-basis-point rise in US interest rates next month. Oil declined by more than 20% in the three months through August, overturning all of the gains since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February. The slump prompted Saudi Arabia to signal that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies could cut supplies. The group is scheduled to gather on Monday to discuss output policy. “What it could translate into is OPEC potentially once again cutting production if prices get too low,” said Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy. “That makes me believe that the downside is limited ahead of Monday’s meeting.” . WTI for October delivery dropped $2.94 to settle at $86.61, lowest closing price since Aug. 16 Brent for November shed $3.28 to settle at $92.36. Among the items that OPEC+ ministers may weigh up is a US-led plan to cap the price of Russian crude in a bid to deprive Moscow of funds amid the war in Ukraine. The proposal has been gathering support, with the UK government signaling its approval. Group of Seven finance ministers including US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to discuss the proposal on Friday. Strength in the greenback has added to headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities as the pricier currency makes them more expensive for overseas buyers. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose toward the highest level on record following a run of three monthly gains.
Oil firms on bets OPEC+ to talk up output cuts to stem sinking prices -Oil prices rose on Friday on expectations that OPEC+ will discuss output cuts at a meeting on Sept. 5, though concern over China's COVID-19 curbs and weakness in the global economy loomed over the market. Brent crude futures rose 66 cents to settle at $93.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 26 cents to settle at $86.87 a barrel. Both benchmarks slid 3% to two-week lows in the previous session. Brent posted a weekly drop of 7.9%, and WTI of 6.7%. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - are due to meet on Sept. 5 against a backdrop of expected demand declines, though top producer Saudi Arabia says supply remains tight. OPEC+ is likely to keep oil output quotas unchanged for October at Monday's meeting, three OPEC+ sources said, although some sources would not rule out a production cut to bolster prices that have slid from sky-high levels hit earlier this year. OPEC+ this week revised market balances for this year and now sees demand lagging supply by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), against 900,000 bpd forecast previously. The producer group expects a market deficit of 300,000 bpd in its base case for 2023. Meanwhile, Iran said it had sent a "constructive" response to U.S. proposals aimed at reviving Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. The United States gave a less positive assessment. G7 finance ministers agreed on Friday to impose a price cap on Russian oil, but provided few new details to the plan aimed at curbing revenue for Moscow's war in Ukraine while keeping crude flowing to avoid price spikes. In the United States, employers hired more workers than expected in August, but moderate wage growth and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to deliver a third 75 basis-point interest rate hike this month. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the fourth time in five weeks. The U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 5 to 760 in the week to Sept. 2, Baker Hughes Co said on Friday. Russia's Gazprom said on Friday that natural gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would remain shut off after the main gas turbine at Portovaya compressor station near St Petersburg was found to have an oil leak. Investors remain worried about the impact of the latest COVID-19 restrictions in China. The city of Chengdu on Thursday ordered a lockdown that has hit manufacturers such as Volvo . Data showed Chinese factory activity in August contracted for the first time in three months in the face of weakening demand, while power shortages and COVID-19 outbreaks also disrupted output.
Oil Sees Worst Week in Five From China COVID, Iran Deal Threat - It’s hard to imagine oil having its worst week in five just before the start of an OPEC meeting. Yet, as the saying goes, “it is what it is.” The lockdown of nearly 18 million people in China’s tech hub Shenzhen over a new Covid fright pulled crude futures down from Friday’s highs that initially drove both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude up more than 3% on the day. That left both crude benchmarks down more than 6% for the week, their most dismal showing since the week ended July 29. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled up 26 cents, or 0.3%, at $86.87 per barrel, after a session peak at $89.61. WTI was down in three prior sessions, losing 3.3% on Thursday, 2.3% on Wednesday and 5.5% on Tuesday. That left the U.S. crude benchmark down 6.7% for the week. Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for oil, settled Friday’s trade up 66 cents, or 0.7%, at $93.02 per barrel, after a session high at $95.28. Like WTI, Brent was down in three prior sessions, losing 4.5% on Thursday, 2.8% on Wednesday and 5% on Tuesday. For the week, it fell 6.4% Key districts in Shenzhen shut down public transport and extended curbs on public activities on Friday as cities across China battled fresh coronavirus outbreaks that have dampened the outlook for economic recovery, Reuters said in a report. China is the world's top importer and any curbs on the movement of its people can usually have detrimental effects on its crude consumption. Six districts comprising the majority of Shenzhen's population of almost 18 million announced that all residents would be tested twice for Covid-19 over the weekend as subway and bus services were suspended, the Reuters report added. Also pulling oil down from Friday’s highs was the Biden administration’s latest take on efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal that could pave the way for the removal of U.S. sanctions that — if abolished — could add up to a million barrels per day of the Islamic Republic’s crude on the global export market. The White House said there should be no link between the reimplementation of the Iran nuclear deal and Tehran's obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. That was the strongest signal yet that Washington really wanted a revival of the deal, agreed between Iran and six global powers in 2015 under the aegis of the Obama administration. The Trump administration that came on later canceled the deal in 2018 and placed sanctions on Tehran. President Joe Biden, on entering office in January last year, allowed negotiations to begin with the aim of reviving the deal. The White House made clear on Friday that there was no deal as yet. “Iran’s response didn’t put us in a position to close a deal, as we won’t close a deal unless Iran meets the terms we have set forth. We are not there yet,” a White House National Security Council spokesperson was quoted saying in a tweet by Iran International, a London-based TV station that reports on Iranian affairs.
Iran Gives West Ultimatum On Nuclear Deal As It Starts Enriching Uranium At Natanz -Iran has issued an ultimatum which further suggests that at a moment a restored nuclear deal is reportedly at the 'finish line' (or hanging by a thread, depending on the source) - it could be on the brink of unraveling in this final crucial stage. "Iran’s president warned Monday that any roadmap to restore Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers must see international inspectors end their probe on man-made uranium particles found at undeclared sites in the country," the AP reports.This has been a key demand of the Iranian side particularly over the past months, but the US and its ally Israel in the background have claimed the withdraw of inspectors will only more easily allow the Islamic Republic to pursue a covert nuclear weapons program under cover of a restored JCPOA.The IAEA has long demanded answers after man-made uranium particles were found at undeclared sites inside Iran. President Ebrahim Raisi addressed this in his Monday speech:As a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Iran is obligated to explain the radioactive traces and to provide assurances that they are not being used as part of a nuclear weapons program. Iran found itself criticized by the IAEA’s Board of Governors in June over its failure to answer questions about the sites to the inspectors’ satisfaction.Raisi mentioned the traces — referring to its as a "safeguards" issue using the IAEA’s language."Without settlement of safeguard issues, speaking about an agreement has no meaning," Raisi said.Thus his words point to an agreement on the "final text" being anything but a done deal.Complicating things further, Reuters in a Monday afternoon report, citing the IAEA, says:Iran has started enriching uranium with one of three cascades, or clusters, of advanced IR-6 centrifuges recently installed at its underground enrichment plant at Natanz, a report by the U.N. atomic watchdog to member states seen by Reuters said on Monday.Iran is using the cascade of up to 174 machines to enrich uranium to up to 5% purity, the confidential report said.
Iran Closes Border With Iraq, Flights Paused From Gulf Carriers, On Fears Of New Civil War - Influential Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr, whose followers largely drove the past 48 hours of protests and violence that rocked the central Green Zone area of Baghdad - resulting in at least 30 deaths and injuries to hundreds more - has called for his supporters to disperse while further apologizing to the Iraqi people for the overnight deadly mayhem. Al Jazeera observed Tuesday that "Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr have started to leave the Green Zone area after their leader told them to end the protests." Further suggesting greatly calmed streets which were hours ago scenes of running armed street battles with security forces, the report noted that "The military also announced that a nationwide curfew, which went into effect on Monday at 7pm local time (20:00 GMT), has been lifted, further raising hopes that there might be an end to the street violence." Acting prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi welcomed Sadr's speech. The Sadrist movement head issued the following warning to those still occupying government buildings: "The party is disciplined and obedient, and I wash my hands of those who do not withdraw from parliament building within an hour." The ultimatum to his supporters appears to have worked for now. A United Nations statement said the following: "UNAMI welcomes the most recent moderate declaration by Sayed Muqtada al-Sadr. As stated yesterday: restraint and calm are necessary for reason to prevail," according to a UN Mission tweet. Yet fears that the ongoing political gridlock in parliament - and inability to form a government going all the way back to a parliamentary election in October 2021 - could slide the country into civil war remain. It remains to be seen whether significant unrest will spread to other provinces, but Iraq's southern city of Basra - a hotbed of pro-Sadr support, whose withdrawal from politics sparked these latest clashes (or as his supporters say... being forced out) - has this week seen angry protests and confrontations with security forces.
Full Implosion Overnight In 'Green Zone' As Baghdad Threatens To Become Next Kabul - The American embassy in Baghdad has reportedly engaged inbound rocket attacks with its air defense system, the C-RAM which protects aerial threats against the Green Zone.Some reports suggest the streets have finally grown calmer in the early morning hours (local time), but this is after an evening and overnight death toll of at least 15, including unconfirmed reports of police casualties. AFP citing local medical sources also says some 350 protesters were injured. Currently the Kuwaiti embassy in Iraq is urging all of its citizens to leave the country, and its likely that more regional and gulf states will follow, especially if violence spreads to other provinces. Media outlets close to the Sadr Movement are using the word “terrorist” when referring to Iran-backed armed groups. Earlier the Sadr supporters torched the Iran-backed group Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s headquarters in Baghdad. pic.twitter.com/2KzUjnX8ZM Below: a brief collection of videos from some of the night's chaotic scenes of clashes between pro-Sadr protesters, rival militant factions, and security forces...
Moqtada al-Sadr: At least 15 dead amid fighting in Iraqi capital - At least 15 people have been killed in clashes between Iraqi security forces and supporters of a powerful Shia cleric in the capital, Baghdad. Officials say dozens more were injured after protesters loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr stormed the presidential palace. The violence began after Mr Sadr announced his retirement from politics. His bloc won most seats seats in parliament last October, but he has refused to negotiate with Iran-backed Shia groups to form a government. There has been a year of political instability as a result. Street fighting erupted overnight, as fighters exchanged gunfire and tracer rounds illuminated the night sky in some of the worst violence to hit the Iraqi capital in recent years. Much of the fighting has been concentrated around the city's Green Zone, an area that houses government buildings and foreign embassies. Dutch embassy staff were forced to move to the German mission due to the clashes. Security officials said some of the violence was between the Peace Brigades, a militia loyal to Mr Sadr, and members of the Iraqi military. Videos shared on social media appeared to show some fighters using heavy weaponry, including rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). Iran has closed its borders with Iraq amidst the fighting, and Kuwait has urged its citizens to leave the country immediately. Medics said 15 supporters of Mr Sadr had been shot dead and about 350 other protesters injured, according to AFP news agency. A spokesperson for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was alarmed by events and called for "immediate steps to de-escalate the situation". And Mustafa al-Kadhimi, Iraq's caretaker prime minister - and Sadr ally - has declared a nationwide curfew after unrest in several other cities. He has suspended cabinet meetings and has pleaded with the influential cleric to intervene and stop the violence. For now, Mr Sadr has announced a hunger strike until the violence and use of weapons by all sides stopped. In his statement on Monday, Mr Sadr said: "I had decided not to interfere in political affairs, but I now announce my final retirement and the closure of all [Sadrist] institutions." Some religious sites linked to his movement will remain open. Mr Sadr, 48, has been a dominant figure in Iraqi public and political life for the past two decades. His Mehdi Army emerged as one of the most powerful militias which fought US and allied Iraqi government forces in the aftermath of the invasion which toppled former ruler Saddam Hussein. He later rebranded it as the Peace Brigades, and it remains one of the biggest militias which now form part of the Iraqi armed forces. Mr Sadr, one of Iraq's most recognisable figures with his black turban, dark eyes and heavy set build, had championed ordinary Iraqis hit by high unemployment, continual power cuts and corruption. He is one of a few figures who could quickly mobilise hundreds of thousands of supporters on to the streets, and draw them down again. Hundreds have been camped outside parliament since storming it twice in July and August in protest at the deadlock. Once an Iranian ally, Mr Sadr has distanced himself from Iraq's Shia neighbour and repositioned himself as a nationalist wanting to end US and Iranian influence over Iraq's internal affairs.
First of ‘hundreds’ of Iranian drones arrives in Russia - The first shipment of what U.S. officials assess will be hundreds of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles has arrived in Russia, according to a Pentagon spokesperson. The U.S. confirms that Russia has received two types of drones from Iran, the Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series, Defense Department spokesperson Todd Breasseale told POLITICO, corroborating earlier reports. The drones can be used to conduct strikes, electronic warfare and targeting, he noted. This initial tranche is likely part of Moscow’s plans to import “hundreds” of Iranian drones of various types, which Russia intends to use on the battlefield in Ukraine, Breasseale said. However, Breasseale noted that information indicates the drones in the initial transfer have already experienced a number of failures. He also noted that Russian forces in Ukraine are suffering from supply shortages, in part because of sanctions and export controls. This is forcing Russia to depend on “unreliable nations like Iran” to fill their needs. “Russia deepening their alliance with Iran is something that the whole world — and especially those in the region — should watch and see as a profound threat,” Breasseale said. “We will vigorously enforce all U.S. sanctions on both the Russian and Iranian arms trade and we will stand with our allies and partners throughout the region against the Iranian threat.” Top U.S. officials have warned for weeks about Russian cooperation with Iran. National security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN in July that the U.S. had information indicating Iran was “preparing to provide Russia with several hundred UAVs, including weapons capable UAVs” for use on the battlefield in Ukraine. Russian operators have been undergoing training in Iran for weeks as part of the agreement for UAV transfers, according to a spokesperson for the National Security Council, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss a sensitive matter. Beyond the drone transfers, the U.S. has seen recent reports that Russia launched a satellite with “significant spying capabilities” on Iran’s behalf, the spokesperson said.
US Signs Deal To Give Israel 4 Refueling Planes Needed To Bomb Iran - The Pentagon signed a contract with Boeing on Thursday to supply Israel with four KC-46 refueling planes that are needed for potential Israeli strikes on Iran, although the aircraft won’t be delivered until at least 2025. The deal is worth $927 million, and Israel is purchasing the planes from Boeing with money from the $3.8 billion in military aid it receives from the US each year. Of that amount, Israel receives $3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing, a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to purchase US-made military equipment. Israel has the option to order four more KC-46s in the future. The deal has been in the works for a long time, and Israel has previously asked the US if it could accelerate the delivery of the planes, but the US has denied the request. The US military would need to give up its spot in line to receive KC-46s in order for Israel to receive the planes earlier. Israel currently relies on aging tankers for mid-air refueling, which aren’t expected to be capable of supporting attacks on Iran. According to the Times of Israel, Israeli jets would need to travel about 1,200 miles to strike targets in Iran, which would require either the KC-46s or stopping in a Gulf country to refuel. Over the past year, Israel’s military has been focused on making preparations to bomb Iran. Israeli warplanes recently simulated launching large-scale attacks on Iran over the Mediterranean Sea. In the meantime, Israel has stepped up its brazen attacks on Syria, ostensibly to 'counter Iran'...
Russia Destroys Oil Storage Supplying Fuel To Ukrainian Troops - Ministry - The Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed with high-precision weapons an oil storage facility in the Dnipropetrovsk Region, from which Ukrainian troops received fuel, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday. "In the area of the city of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Region, an oil storage facility was destroyed, from which fuel was supplied to the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) units in Donbas," the ministry said. Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine on February 24, after the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk appealed for help in defending themselves against Ukrainian forces. In response to Russia's operation, Western countries have rolled out a comprehensive sanctions campaign against Moscow and have been supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Kremlin Says Ukraine's Much-Heralded Counteroffensive In South Already "Failed Miserably" -On Monday Ukraine's forces launched a much anticipated 'counteroffensive' focused on taking back territory in the south of the country, which is among the first portions of Ukraine which Russia seized soon after starting its invasion six months ago. The operation is said to reflect a growing "confidence" in Kiev that American military aid will continue to flow and even grow. "Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region," a Ukrainian public broadcaster announced based on state officials.Ukrainian journalist Natalia Humeniuk admitted that Russian forces in the south are still "quite powerful" but that Ukraine's forces have "unquestionably weakened the enemy" - which Russia's Crimea governor Sergei Aksyonov dismissed as "another fake of Ukrainian propaganda."And the White House said that Russia has already had to "pull resources" from fighting in Donbas in order to defend the south.Like with many prior major battlefield events, two competing narratives are quickly emerging. US officials including a number of Congressmen expressed their immediate optimism upon that start of the southern counteroffensive... National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Monday said the following: "Regardless of the size, scale and scope of this counter-offensive that they’ve talked about today, they have already had an impact on Russia’s military capabilities," Kirby said."The Russians have had to pull resources from the east simply because of reports that the Ukrainians might be going more on the offence in the south — they’ve had to deplete certain units from certain areas in the east and the Donbas.""The idea of going on the offence is not new to Ukrainians, and they have been taking the fight to the Russians inside their country," Kirby added. "In fact, with some of the assistance that they’ve gotten from US weapons as well as others, such as Himars, they’ve been able to actually strike behind Russian lines and put the Russians more on defense."The statement appeared to be confirmation that Washington is positively encouraging this fresh offensive aimed at penetrating Russian lines in the south. Kirby also weighed in on the continued standoff at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine at a moment an IAEA team has been dispatched to inspect the site. He urged a "controlled shutdown" in order to protect it, something the Russian occupying forces are unlikely to heed. Kirby called it "the safest and least-risky option in the near term" - but then there would be the question of Ukrainians keeping the lights on headed into winter. But by Monday's close, Russia's defense ministry proclaimed the Ukrainian counter-offensive has "failed miserably", per state media:Ukrainian forces attempted to attack in three directions on orders of President Vladimir Zelensky but made no gains, Moscow said.Russian troops caused "great losses" to the Ukrainian attackers during the day’s battles, including 26 tanks, 23 armored fighting vehicles, nine more armored vehicles, two SU-25 ground-attack jets and more than 560 troops, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Monday evening.Likely the truth will emerge amid the conflicting narratives within the next days or even weeks. Russia still aims for full 'liberation' of the Donbas as a prime battlefield objective at this point.
UN Team Arrives At Ukraine Nuclear Plant As Shelling Prompts Reactor Shutdown - UN inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have arrived Thursday to the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine, after their mission was earlier approved by both the Ukrainian side and Russian President Vladimir Putin."A Reuters reporter saw the IAEA team arrive at the plant in a large convoy with a heavy presence of Russian soldiers nearby," Al Jazeera writes, noting that the convoy had been slightly delayed due to fresh shelling in the area. The inspectors also confirmed their safe arrival on Twitter.The UN-IAEA convoy was seen being waved through Russian checkpoints in the Russian-controlled town of Enerhodar en route to the site amid "increased military activity in the area". Each side is blaming the other for the fresh shelling. An IAEA spokesperson said the mission had been delayed for three hours as the team was held up on the Ukrainian side of the frontline before being given permission to pass.In its latest statement, Russia's defense ministry has denounced the efforts of Ukrainian "saboteurs" alleged to have attempted to seize the plant just as the IAEA was en route.The New York Times has since confirmed the team is at the site, which is Europe's largest nuclear power station, but which has been under control of some 500 Russian troops since March: "The I.A.E.A. mission arrived" at the plant, the Ukrainian nuclear power company, Energoatom, said on the Telegram messaging app. A convoy of nine vehicles entered the complex around 2:15 p.m. local time, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported.As the U.N. experts set off on Thursday morning in a convoy of armored S.U.V.s toward the dangerous buffer zone separating the two armies in southern Ukraine, Russian mortar shells struck the plant, Energoatom said, causing equipment failures that forced the shutdown of one reactor and the activation of backup generators at another.A key aspect of the UN team's mission is to gather accurate technical data and to interview the Ukrainian technicians and engineers who have been keeping it operational. Further they will assess the extent of damage after the complex has been impact by shelling on multiple occasions.
Russia To Hold 'Limited' Ukraine Annexation Vote, Including For Region Of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant - Russia is planning to hold "limited" referendums in September for territory it's captured in Ukraine, according to regional media citing government sources. This is expected to start in the Donbas - where fighting is still raging after Russian forces have captured significant territory, particularly with the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), according to a recent Moscow Times report: Moscow is "impatient" and would like to "pull off" referendums in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as fast as possible amid stalemate on the battlefield, said the Vyorstka news website citing unidentified government sources.A senior Russian lawmaker, Andrei Turchak, was cited as saying last week, "These territories are Russian regions."While in the opening weeks and months of the now 6-month long invasion there was widespread speculation over whether Russia would seek to annex territory outside the Donbas, it now seems clear the Kremlin is talking about referendums beyond just the far east.Crucially, at a moment the world has watched with growing alarm the volatile situation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in southeastern Ukraine, Russian state media is now previewing a referendum in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during the coming weeks. According to TASS on Wednesday (machine translation): The referendum on the status of the liberated territories of the Zaporizhia region will be held in September, the exact date is still unknown. Berdyansk Mayor Alexander Saulenko announced this to journalists on Wednesday. "The referendum will, of course, be held on our territory. We are preparing for this referendum, it is planned for September, but I can't say the exact date yet."
Wall Street predicted Russia's economy would collapse after it invaded Ukraine. These 3 charts show that hasn't happened. - When President Vladimir Putin's forces invaded Ukraine in late February, many Wall Street analysts rushed to predict Russia's economic downfall. Six months later, they've been forced to revise those forecasts.Those dire warnings looked set to become reality in the weeks after war broke out. Western allies brought in economic sanctions — such as oil import bans and cutting the Russian ruble out of international currency markets.But Russia's economy has shown a lot of resilience. These three charts show how. In March, top investment bank JPMorgan said Russia's gross domestic product would fall 35% in the second quarter compared with the previous. Goldman Sachs predicted its economy would suffer its worst contraction since the Soviet Union imploded in the early 1990s.But Russia's GDP slipped only 4% year-on-year in the three months to June 30. In fact, its economic growth shrank at a faster rate after the coronavirus pandemic broke out, when GDP fell 7.4% in the second quarter of 2020.Given that, JPMorgan has concluded Russia's economy has held up under the weight of tough sanctions. Stronger-than-expected exports of Russian commodities, including crude oil, has helped support the economy. The country has also benefited from robust demand among its own consumers and a Kremlin-devised program to keep unemployment low, according to the International Monetary Fund.Wall Street analysts also predicted that Western oil import bans would badly hurt Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia.Its economy is heavily reliant on its energy exports, with oil and gas revenues making up 45% of its federal budget last year, according to the International Energy Agency.The US put an embargo on Russian energy imports in March, while the EU agreed a phased ban — which for now impacts 75% of Russian oil purchases — in May. In March, Goldman Sachs said Moscow was unlikely to find other crude oil trading partners, given its expulsion from the SWIFT banking system prevented the Russian Central Bank from using its foreign reserves. But Russia still exports 7.4 million barrels of its oil each day, according to Bloomberg data for July. India's purchases of Russian oil have played a big part. Its imports rose five months in a row before slipping slightly in June. It's still taking in 1 million barrels of Russian oil a day — a 900% increase from February.And Europe has yet failed to wean itself off of Russian crude. The EU still brings in 2.8 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg data. That's just a 30% drop from February's 4 million barrels a day. Wall Street saw nothing but pain ahead for Russia's manufacturing and services sectors as Western economic sanctions hit.In the wake of the Ukraine invasion, Russia's composite Purchasing Managers Index — which tracks trends in the two sectors — tumbled. It slid from 50.8 in February to 37.7 in March, with a reading above 50 indicating growth and below 50, contraction. Goldman Sachs strategists said the contraction was "broad-based, with sharp drops in the output, new orders, and especially the new exports orders components". They noted Moscow should brace for further declines.But several months later, Russia's composite PMI has risen back into growth territory. The index climbed to 44.4 in April, rose above 50 in June, and hit 52.2 last month. That last reading means Russia's economic health is blooming -—a far cry from the predictions of doom made on Wall Street.
Taiwan Shoots Down Drone Off Chinese Coast For The First Time - After two prior episodes in as many consecutive days which saw Taiwan military outposts on outlying islands fire warning shots against intruding unidentified drones, a fresh incident Thursday has resulted in an unidentified civilian drone being shot down near the Chinese mainland."The Jinmen Defense Command of the Army stated that at 12:30 p.m. today, an unidentified civilian aerial camera was found to enter the airspace over the restricted waters of Shiyu Island," Taiwan's Defense Ministry said. "The Ministry of Defense will continue to search, monitor, and monitor closely to maintain the security of the defence area."Like the prior incidents which just resulted in warning shots, the drone entered restricted waters near one of the Kinmen islands just off the Chinese mainland.Thursday's drone shootdown took place a distance of a mere minutes by boat ride from the Chinese coast, which has caused some pundits to question whether these incidents have involved civilian operated hobby drones from the mainland's Fujian.Shi Islet is the smallest Taiwanese island which has long had military personnel stationed on it, and is virtually a rock sticking out of the sea lying just northwest of Taiwan's Lesser Kinmen.As Reuters details, this is being widely viewed as likely part of a stepped-up Chinse harassment and pressure campaign against Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi's August 2nd visit: Since mid-August, a number of civilian drones have been spotted flying over the outlying island of Kinmen, 180 kilometres from Taiwan's main island but less than 10 kilometres from China. On one occasion, on August 16, two Taiwanese soldiers wearing masks reportedly threw rocks at a Chinese drone when it flew above their military post.The Kinmen Defence Command said two other Chinese drones were detected at Little Kinmen island and nearby Lion islet on Saturday and Monday respectively. The one that passed over Lion islet at around 4 pm was flying very low, only 30 meters from the ground, it said.China has increased its antics in the Taiwan Strait since the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Taiwan is warning that its military won't hesitate to exercise right of self-defense and to counter-attack in the event of Chinese forces entering its territory.
Huawei’s profits collapse as US sanctions bite -Huawei Technologies, the Shenzhen-based telecommunication equipment maker, has announced a change in business strategy to focus more on the bottom line than generating revenue after its net margin declined by nearly 50% in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year.Huawei’s founder, Chief Executive Ren Zhengfei, wrote in an internal memo that the tech giant would shut down or reduce its unprofitable businesses and focus more on its high-value lines in the coming few years.Employees would get more bonuses or promotions if they could help the company boost operating profits – less so, sales – according to the memo obtained by Chinese news media.Ren said:The continued recession of the global economy, together with the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, will greatly hurt people’s consumption power. We face not only pressure on supply but also a weakening market demand. Between 2023 and 2025, we must make survival our main goal. We must stay alive and live with quality. From this perspective, we need to adjust our business strategy and decide what can be done and what should be abandoned … With survival the main principle, marginal businesses will be shruken and closed. The chill will be felt by everyone.The company said its net margin was 5% in the first six months of this year, compared with 9.8% in the same period of last year. It means Huawei’s net profit fell by 51.97% to 15.1 billion yuan for the period. Commentators said Huawei saw declining profitability because its smartphone business had been hit by the United States’ sanctions since 2019. They said the company should downsize its e-vehicle business as its returns were less than expected.
Italy's manufacturing PMI contracts to 48 in August: S&P (Xinhua) -- Italy's manufacturing sector contracted for the second consecutive month in August, according to a report released on Thursday by S&P Global Market Intelligence.For the first time since June 2020, the country's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.0 points in August -- its lowest level in more than two years -- from 48.5 points in July.A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction.According to S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Lewis Cooper, the weak business climate and recession fears guided strategic decision making."The weak demand picture led firms to pare back further on purchasing, and notably a near-record rate of increase in stocks of finished goods held by firms was recorded as items were left unsold," Cooper said. "The weak performance was reflected further in historically downbeat sentiment towards outlook over the coming year."Cooper s aid there was good news in that inflation was tamped down by weaker demand. Italy's government said on Wednesday that prices in August rose a record 8.4 percent, the highest one-month increase in the country since 1985.
German manufacturing stuck in contraction in August - PMI (Reuters) - Germany's manufacturing sector contracted for a second month in a row in August, as ongoing economic uncertainty and strong inflation helped lead to a sustained decline in new orders, a survey showed on Thursday.S&P Global's final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 49.1, its lowest reading in more than two years, from July's reading of 49.3.A reading below the 50 mark indicates contraction.A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a reading of 49.8.An index of new orders ticked up only slightly to 40.9 from the previous month's 40.1, which was the lowest reading since May 2020.Businesses surveyed noted that uncertainty and high prices had led to greater hesitancy. A number of firms noted that high stock levels among clients had also weighed on demand."New orders continued to show a steep decline, albeit from historically high levels, with economic uncertainty and strong inflation both acting to suppress sales volumes," said Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Many manufacturers are accumulating stocks of finished goods as sales disappoint, which is a downside risk to the sector's performance in the coming months as these firms look to bring output more into line with demand and scale back their purchasing activity accordingly," added Smith.
UK manufacturing drop is steepest since first Covid lockdown - UK manufacturing production suffered its steepest decline in August since May 2020. Companies experienced a sharp reversal in new orders, with demand from domestic and overseas clients contracting sharply. This led to a near stalling of jobs growth and drop in business optimism, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for UK manufacturing produced by S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS). The seasonally adjusted PMI fell to 47.3 in August, down from 52.1 in July. This is the first sub-50 PMI – representing contraction – since May 2020. Manufacturing production registered a steep decrease during August, reflecting weaker intakes of new work, reduced new export business and shortages of both staff and raw materials. August saw intakes of new work fall at the quickest pace for 27 months. There were also reports of customers postponing, rescheduling or cancelling agreements in light of rising economic uncertainties, recession warnings and component shortages. Foreign demand suffered its steepest fall since May 2020, with order intakes from markets such as the US, the EU and China all decreasing. Port congestion, supply chain issues, Brexit complications and inflationary pressures also contributed to the latest contraction in new export business. Jobs growth ground to a near-standstill – its weakest performance in a 20-month-long sequence of increases. Cuts at small- and large-scale producers offset a “solid” increase at medium-sized manufacturers. There were reports of recruitment difficulties (such as skill shortages and a competitive hiring market), employees leaving for better paying jobs, and capacity being cut in line with reduced new order intakes. Levels of work-in-hand and purchasing activity were both reduced to the greatest extents since mid-2020. Lower new order intakes enabled firms to catch-up on backlogs. August also saw business optimism slump to a 28-month low, amid rising concerns about a possible UK recession, strong inflationary pressure and the potential impact of the cost of living crisis on consumer demand. Business optimism sank to a 28-month low as companies noted that the horizon was darkening amid concerns about recession and the impact of the cost of living crisis.
Savage UK energy bills pauperise millions, threatening many deaths - Within hours of UK average household annual energy bills shooting up Friday by a staggering 80 percent to £3,549 a year, latest projection from independent forecasters are for savage rises to £5,400-a-year in January and to £7,200 by April. The latest rise already makes bills unaffordable for many. The annual energy price cap as recently as October 2020 was £1,042. The price cap is set by energy regulator Ofgem. The overall costs cited in the media are based on typical usage on a default (standard variable) tariff. But in reality there is no upper limit for the 24 million households in England, Scotland and Wales. The cap only puts an upper limit on the price per kilowatt hour (kWh) used, which has now risen from 28 pence to 56 pence per kWh. It is predicted that for many households, particularly large families with extra energy needs, next April’s energy cap increase could see them paying £10,000 or more for their annual fuel use.According to research by the Trades Union Congress, energy bills in the last three months of this year will soar 35 times faster than wages and 57 times faster than benefits. While monthly bills could be around £500 a month in January for those on an average tariff; for around 4 million mainly poor households forced to use pre-payment meters, bills will rise faster still. The Resolution Foundation think tank predicted that for prepayment meter users, “Typical energy bills in January alone could hit £714—over half of their monthly disposable income.”A low-income family will be forced to hand over 46 percent of their income on energy bills, four times more than last year. For a single parent family on a low income, 66 percent of their income will go on energy. A pensioner will lose 40 percent of their disposable income on energy bills and a single adult on a low income faces a plunge into debt, losing a staggering 120 percent of their income to pay energy bills. Vulnerable layers, including the 75 percent of already indebted households with a disabled person will go under.The rise in prices is plunging many households into penury, unable to shop, heat their homes, or even wash.Last week, National Health Service chiefs made an extraordinary intervention, warning the Conservative government that thousands will die due to unaffordable energy bills. At least 10,000 people already die annually in Britain as a result of “fuel poverty”.Fuel poverty charity National Energy Action (NEA) said that compared with a year ago, the number of households in fuel poverty would double to 8.9 million in October. NEA chief executive, Adam Scorer, warned, “We will have a million more homes that will not be heated this winter… that leads to more ill-health, it leads to more death.”In April and May, financial expert Martin Lewis warned that unless people were fed and able to keep warm, there would be civil unrest. His prognosis in May was based on projections of bill rises “in the middle of October to £2,600 in the middle of winter…” The October rise to £3,549 announced already dwarfs Lewis’s worst case prediction and the rise in January of up to £5,400 will bring the suffering of millions to unheard of levels.
Ukraine Fatigue? British War Support Wanes Amid Energy Hyperinflation The Sunday Times reported the UK's financial support for Ukraine could wind down by the end of the year. London has already allocated $2.7 billion in military aid to the wartorn country in Eastern Europe as the conflict just recently marched into the sixth month. Public support is also waning, driven primarily by energy hyperinflation sparked by failed Western sanctions on Russia. According to a source in the UK Defense Ministry, cited by the newspaper, the UK is running out of weapons and money for Ukraine -- this will be a challenge for the next UK Prime Minister, who will face the difficult decision to continue funding Kyiv while domestically, the economic outlook darkens. Meanwhile, UK citizens are starting to realize Western sanctions on Russia have backfired and led many into fuel poverty: "I do support arming Ukraine but I'm absolutely bloody terrified by the price of gas. …"I do think we've been a little guilty of overly glorifying the Ukrainians. …. "I feel we need to think about ending this but I can't see an end," said Karine Hyde, 59, a medical practice manager.Discontent in the UK is growing as energy costs soar. The latest issue to anger Brits is power regulator Ofgem hiked the cap on electricity bills by 80% to a record £3,549 ($4,189) starting on Oct. 1 from £1,971 ($2,330) at present. That cap is expected to rise to £5,439 ($6,427) by January, and £7,272 ($8,594) by spring due to skyrocketing wholesale natural gas prices as Russian supplies to Europe dwindle. Here's how energy inflation has crushed real earnings for Brits, making their lives absolutely miserable as they have to pull back on spending. Soaring energy costs are making people rethink their views on the war.A YouGov poll in March found that 48% of Brits supported increasing sanctions on Russia, even if they had to suffer due to higher inflation. By June, this had fallen to 38%. Also, 49% said in March said they would welcome tax hikes to pay for Ukraine's military, but that number has dropped to 41%. Additional questions via YouGov poll show slumping support for Ukraine among Brit adults.
No comments:
Post a Comment