week ending Oct 1

Fed’s Bullard Says Markets Have Gotten the Message on Interest Rate Hikes - — Federal Reserve officers reiterated Thursday that they may preserve elevating rates of interest to restrain excessive inflation, and that markets are actually understanding the message. “If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard advised a digital emerging-market discussion board, referring to the financial institution’s so-called dot plot of projections. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester repeated that officers are resolute of their quest to extend charges to a stage seen as restrictive. “Real interest rates — judged by the expectations over the next year of inflation — have to be in positive territory and held there for a time,” she mentioned earlier in an interview on CNBC. “We’re still not even in restricted territory on the funds rate.” Fed officers raised rates of interest by 75 foundation factors on Sept. 21 for the third straight assembly, bringing the goal for the benchmark federal funds charge to a spread of three% to three.25%. Their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, exhibits a median forecast of charges reaching 4.4% by the tip of this yr, implying an additional 1.25 proportion factors of tightening over their remaining two conferences in November and December. Mester mentioned her forecast might be a bit above the median path as a result of she sees inflation being persistent, based mostly on her conversations with companies, group growth teams and different sources. “In my SEP I have inflation coming down, but we have to bring interest rates up to get that downward shift in inflation,” she mentioned, including that the US financial system has up to now been capable of deal with the upper rates of interest. She drew a distinction between US markets and what’s taking place within the UK, the place the Bank of England introduced Wednesday that it will launch limitless bond shopping for to deal with market dysfunction. When the Fed introduced its bond purchases within the early months of the pandemic, it did so at a time when it was additionally decreasing charges to assist the financial system, she mentioned. The BOE faces some communication points as a result of it’s lifting charges however wanted to buy property, which is often considered as a way for relieving financial coverage, to be able to assist monetary stability, Mester mentioned.“It’s a challenging situation for them,” Mester mentioned. “For financial stability reasons and for market functioning reasons they had to go in and buy bonds.” “Market functioning is incredibly important because you won’t be able to hit any monetary policy goals if the markets aren’t functioning,” she mentioned. “That’s different than worrying about volatility in the markets.” Mester mentioned that up to now, there had been no signal of dysfunction in US monetary markets.

Fed's Brainard: Rates shouldn't be lowered prematurely - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said on Friday, in a speech at a research conference in New York, that the central bank must not lower its interest rates "prematurely." "It will take time for the full effect of tighter financial conditions to work through different sectors and to bring inflation down. Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to have confidence that inflation is moving back to target," Brainard reiterated. Brainard mentioned that going ahead "deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening and to update our assessments."

Fed's Brainard: Global rate hikes could threaten financial stability - As central banks around the world work to combat rampant inflation, the tightening of monetary policy could become a threat to financial stability, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned Friday morning. "The global environment of high inflation and rising interest rates highlights the importance of paying attention to financial stability considerations for monetary policy," Brainard said in a speech. "As monetary policy tightens globally to combat high inflation, it is important to consider how cross-border spillovers and spillbacks might interact with financial vulnerabilities." Speaking at a research conference on monetary policy and financial stability organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Brainard noted that interest rates around the world are being raised at a historically rapid pace and roughly in unison. Nine central banks in advanced economies — the U.S., the U.K., Canada, the euro area, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland — have increased their benchmark rates by at least 125 basis points during the past six months. The U.S. rate has risen by 3 percentage points during that period. For the U.S., the hikes mean that while domestic demand is suppressed, so is demand from cross-border buyers and borrowers, Brainard said. The reverse is also true, with U.S. consumers purchasing fewer foreign goods at the same time that domestic demand in those markets falls. "Tightening in financial conditions similarly spills over to financial conditions elsewhere, which amplifies the tightening effects," Brainard said, adding that adjustments to central bank balance sheets also have ripple effects. For economies that are closely linked, like the U.S. and Europe, the impact of monetary policy changes "could be about half the size of the own-country effect when measured in terms of relative changes in local currency bond yields," she said. This effect can be especially harmful to emerging markets, especially for borrowers of dollar-denominated debt. Brainard noted that the Fed's nominal U.S. dollar index has risen by 10% over the past year, putting additional pressure on borrowers in regions with depreciating currencies.

Fed's Mester: Doesn't see financial stability problems for US (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Thursday she does not see distress in U.S. financial markets that would alter the central bank's campaign to lower very high levels of inflation through interest rate hikes. While "no one knows for sure" if there is a big problem lurking in the financial sector right now, "so far, we haven't seen the kind of market dysfunction, even through what's happening in the global markets right now, we haven't seen that in the U.S. markets," Mester said in an interview on CNBC. Mester touched on market conditions amid very unsettled conditions across the globe. She acknowledged that Bank of England actions this week to buy bonds to stabilize markets there appeared at odds with its work to lower inflation. The BoE's actions appeared "a little bit incoherent because they were buying bonds at the same time they're talking about raising interest rates," Mester said. But she added there were "good reasons" for what the UK central bank did, saying "market functioning is incredibly important, because you won't be able to hit any monetary policy goals if the markets aren't functioning." Mester, who holds a voting role on the rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, said she still sees inflation as the paramount problem facing the economy, which means the central bank needs to press forward with rate rises, lifting a federal funds target rate range now at between 3.00%-3.25% to over 4%. The Fed has faced concerns that its aggressive rate hikes aimed at lowering inflation from 40-year highs will send the economy into recession. Financial markets have also been under broad pressure and suffered steep losses, and many observers worry Fed actions, coupled with rate rises from other major central banks, could trigger market dysfunction. Mester said she does not see a case for slowing down on rate rises right now. She noted that at last week's FOMC meeting officials penciled in a path for the federal funds target rate that will get it to 4.6% next year and said she expects the central bank will likely have to go further than that. "I probably am a little bit above that median path because I see more persistence in the inflation process," Mester said. Getting above a 4% fed funds rate is important to helping to lower inflation, she said. Mester also said job market demand continues to outpace supply. She also said the strong dollar is a helpful force to lower U.S. inflation. The central banker also cautioned against taking too much signal from data showing a decline in the nation's money supply. Some see the drop as a sign that future inflation levels will fall. "Money supply hasn't been that reliable an indicator for a long time," Mester said. Measurements of the money stock are "not figuring into my calculus at the moment."

The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Remains Stubbornly High - Inflation remains far above the Federal Reserve’s goal, and prices climbed more quickly than economists expected in August. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in new data released on Friday, further evidence that the central bank is contending with a stubborn problem as it tries to choke off the worst inflation in four decades. The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which is produced by the Commerce Department and is the measure the Fed officially targets as it tries to achieve 2 percent annual inflation, climbed by 6.2 percent in the year through August. While that was a slowdown from 6.4 percent in July, it was higher than the 6 percent economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected.The details of the report were even more concerning. While price increases have been moderating somewhat on an overall basis, that is partly because gas prices have been declining. After stripping out volatile food and fuel prices to get a sense of underlying inflationary pressures, the index climbed 4.9 percent in the year through August, an acceleration from 4.7 percent the month before. And on a monthly basis, the core index picked up by 0.6 percent, a rapid pace of increase that was the fastest since June.The data underlined what a rocky road the Fed faces as it tries to guide the U.S. economy toward slower inflation. Consumers continued to spend in August, the report also showed, suggesting that the economy still has momentum even as central bankers raise interest rates to try to cool demand, slow hiring and eventually weigh down inflation. Because growth has been resilient, the Fed has become steadily more aggressive in its efforts to constrain spending and temper inflation.  “Inflation is very high in the United States and abroad, and the risk of additional inflationary shocks cannot be ruled out,” Lael Brainard, the Fed’s vice chair, said in a speech on Friday. She later added that policymakers were “committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”The Fed has lifted interest rates five times this year, including three unusually large three-quarter-point increases, and Ms. Brainard reiterated that it would need to restrict the economy for some time to make sure inflation was back under control. But she also emphasized that future rate increases would depend on incoming data, suggesting that the Fed will keep an eye on the economy as it slows down and calibrate its moves accordingly.

Fed’s Favored Inflation Index Says: Underlying Inflation Just Isn’t Slowing Down at All - by Wolf Richter - Just briefly here: The Fed uses the “core PCE” inflation index, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as yardstick for its inflation target. This “core PCE” index – the overall PCE inflation index minus the volatile food and energy components – is therefore crucial in the current rate-hike scenario, amid red-hot inflation, when everyone wants to know when inflation is finally going to cry uncle. Some folks thought that happened in July, when the month-to-month “core PCE” inflation slowed to “0%” (rounded down). Turns out this much-ballyhooed month-to-month “core PCE” reading in July of “0%” was just a one-off event. In August, according to the BEA today, the core-PCE inflation index jumped by 0.6%, same as the multi-decade records in June 2022 and in April 2021 (all rounded to 0.6%). As Powell had said during the FOMC press conference: Underlying inflation is just not slowing down. This “core PCE” is the lowest lowball inflation index the US government provides. But it is crucial in figuring out where the Fed’s monetary policy might go, and how far the Fed might go with its rate hikes, and when it might pause. Compared to a year ago, the “core PCE” price index rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July. This year-over-year measure is what the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target. But given the huge volatility in inflation last year, Powell said that they would be looking at month-to-month developments to get a feel of where inflation might be headed. They’re looking for “compelling” evidence that inflation is headed back to the 2% target. Since about April 2021, I said that the Fed would need to bring its short-term policy rates to 4%, combined with sufficient QT, to bring inflation under control, and then pause to watch it take effect. I said that this would be enough to tamp down on what was then already soaring but still much less inflation. That was my story, and I stuck to it until a few months ago. Now it looks like the Fed will take those rates above 4% by yearend, and higher still next year.

 El-Erian: The Cost Of The Fed's Challenged Credibility - After previously eschewing interest-rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy at an unprecedented rate. But the current market turmoil and the central bank’s own revised projections show that a great deal of damage has already been done. Financial markets’ reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy move was reminiscent more of developing countries than of the world’s most powerful economy. Given that the Fed is the world’s most systemically important central bank, this is more than just a curiosity. It has implications for America’s economic well-being – and that of the rest of the world. On September 21, the Fed reinforced its two-month-old “HFL” approach of pushing interest rates higher, faster, and for a longer duration than previously anticipated. It implemented an unprecedented third successive 75-basis-point rate increase and sent a strong signal that hikes totaling another 125 basis points are on tap for the year’s last two policy meetings. It also signaled that the possibility of a “pivot” to lower rates is unlikely before 2023. The Fed’s revision of its economic projections painted a darkening picture for the United States and most other economies. It is forecasting not only lower growth but also, and more surprisingly, higher inflation – something that it has done repeatedly in recent quarters. The Fed’s latest moves are consistent with a central bank that is continuously scrambling to catch up with realities on the ground. It is the kind of thing that one typically finds in developing countries with weak institutions, not in the issuer of the world’s reserve currency and the custodian of the world’s most sophisticated financial markets – where many other countries and companies entrust their savings. The comparison is even more troubling when one considers what the recent market turmoil implies. For starters, markets see a central bank that, as hard as it tries, is still struggling to catch up with both market expectations and what is needed to contain cost-of-living pressures. Having been consistently pushed by markets to do more – and for good reason, given that core inflation is running at 6.3% and still rising – the Fed’s latest policy actions duly caused another sharp reduction in prices for both stocks and bonds. Second, markets see a central bank that expects to cause more collateral damage as it tries to meet its inflation target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said as much this month when he continued to distance himself from the possibility of a soft or “softish” landing, as he once put it. Powell has now repeatedly signaled more “pain” ahead, implying an uncomfortably high probability of recession. The market appears to agree with this outlook: the yield curve is inverted, with the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds having fallen to around 40 bps below that on two-year bonds. Ominously, these market signals indicate that the US economy (and therefore the global economy) lacks both a monetary-policy anchor and a sufficiently credible central bank. As a result, the US needs more monetary-policy tightening than it would have if the Fed had reacted in a timely and credible fashion. That will indeed produce “pain,” in the form of foregone growth (actual and potential) and higher unemployment, which will hit the most vulnerable segments of society the hardest. For the global economy, this will translate into even greater growth fragility at a time when Europe is heading into recession, China’s performance is increasingly lagging its economic potential, and little fires are burning across the developing world. Despite this increased fragility, many other central banks will have no choice but to follow the Fed in raising interest rates beyond what would have otherwise been needed, in order to avoid “importing” more damaging inflation and unsettling financial instability. Now that the Fed finds itself in such an uncomfortable situation – one mostly of its own making – it may be inclined to eschew further rate hikes, particularly given the growing criticism that it is tipping the economy into recession, destroying wealth, and fueling instability. Yet such a course of action would risk repeating the monetary-policy mistake of the 1970s, saddling America and the world with an even longer period of stagflationary trends.

Down $29 Trillion Since November - How much has the Fed's epic "inflationary is transitory" policy error cost the world? Try $29 trillion and counting.According to calculations from Bloomberg's Robert Fullem, the combined market value of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate bond index and the MSCI World index has dropped $29 trillion since its peak in November 2021. The price gauge of the former has dropped to its lowest level since 2011. That is more than twice the level of the world’s international reserves assets, currently at about $12 trillion. As Fullem notes, the drop in asset prices may not just be about inflation or rising rates but also about the prospect of a perpetual debt spiral to fuel a modicum of growth. Central-bank rate hikes and balance sheet trimming is making future debt more expensive. In some cases, debt costs rise further amid a dearth of foreign buyers as investors stick to local markets and official accounts see reserve balances shrink. In other cases, a high absolute levels of debt and changing political landscape triggers repayment angst. Additionally, "shifting trade balances and protectionism complicates the issue as it threatens to shrink the world’s production capacity and potentially turn Bernanke’s global savings glut into a shortage."Of course, the risk for central banks is that, as growth slows - and it will sharply and very soon - they will be forced to capitulate on tightening amid political concerns or domestic outrage, just as we have been warning for the past year. As a result, inflation worries will also resurface. Some of these issues may be impacting the pound and gilts, in unison.

 Powell ducks Warren request for Fed officials' trading records - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has deflected requests from a top critic, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, for details of financial transactions by central bank officials, risking an escalation of tensions with lawmakers over disclosure issues. Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, sent letters to Powell and all 12 of the Fed's regional branches in early August, requesting "all stock, bond, and other investment trades by senior officials" from January 2020 through August. Warren also wanted to see internal communications by Fed ethics officers warning officials away from trading in a period of Fed market intervention. Powell, in a Sept. 16 letter to Warren obtained by Bloomberg News, wrote that the banks "have fully cooperated with the board to implement the new rules, which place the Federal Reserve's investment and trading policies at the forefront of major US federal agencies and global central banks." He said his letter came on behalf of the Fed system. Powell's letter referred Warren to disclosures already available on the web and new ethics rules being implemented by the Fed following an ethics scandal in 2021. He noted that Fed staff provided a briefing to legislative aides on the Senate Banking Committee, including members of Warren's staff. The Fed overhauled those rules last year after revelations about unusual trading activity by several senior officials during 2020, when the central bank was taking aggressive action to protect the economy from COVID-19. It slashed interest rates to nearly zero and unleashed emergency lending programs supporting multiple markets to protect the U.S. as the pandemic spread. Early retirement Then-Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and his Boston colleague Eric Rosengren both announced their early retirement following the revelations, with Rosengren citing ill health. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida also came under scrutiny for his transaction on the eve of a Fed statement signaling it was getting ready to calm market panic. Regional Fed presidents file annual financial disclosures, and it is now routine for those banks to make them publicly accessible. The Fed's inspector general, an internal watchdog, looked into transactions by Powell's family trust and by Clarida, and closed the investigation in July saying it didn't find evidence of wrongdoing. Probes of senior reserve bank officials are ongoing, the IG said. The IG's probe has been criticized as incomplete by Warren and others.

Q2 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at -0.6%, As Expected - The Third Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -0.6% (-0.58% to two decimal places), an increase from -1.6% (-1.57% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of -0.6%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release: Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent (same as previously published). The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was also 0.6 percent. The update primarily reflected an upward revision to consumer spending that was offset by a downward revision to exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to "Updates to GDP"). [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.18% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.34%.

U.S. economic growth revised up; gap between GDP and GDI narrows sharply (Reuters) - The U.S. economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was much stronger than initially thought amid massive fiscal stimulus, according to revisions on Thursday, which also showed the gap between the two measures of growth narrowing sharply in 2021. Gross domestic product increased 5.9% in 2021, the Commerce Department said in its annual revision of GDP data. That was revised up from the previously reported 5.7% growth. The economy contracted 2.8% in 2020, revised up from the previously published 3.4% decline. "The pandemic recession from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020 was a bit less sharp than what is currently published," said Erich Strassner, associate director of National Economic Accounts at the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). "The recovery from the second quarter of 2020 has been a bit stronger." The upward revisions to GDP in both years largely reflected more consumer spending, exports and federal government spending than previously reported. Spending was boosted by government subsidies to households and businesses as part of a nearly $6 trillion in relief since the pandemic started in the spring of 2020. GDP, the standard economic growth measure, is the value of goods and services produced in the United States. Economic activity in the nation is also assessed from incomes earned and the costs incurred in the production of GDP, expressed as Gross Domestic Income (GDI). Revisions showed GDI rebounding 5.5% in 2021, revised down from the previously published 7.3%. GDI contracted 2.3% in 2020 instead of 2.9% as initially estimated. The downward revision in 2021 reflected revisions to several components, including net interest income, private industry wages and salaries, proprietors income as well as corporate profits. In principle, GDP and GDI should be equal, but in practice differ as they are estimated using different and largely independent source data. The gap between GDI and GDP, also known as the statistical discrepancy, is the sum of measurement errors in estimating the respective components of GDP and GDI. The statistical discrepancy widened sharply prior to the revision, attracting the attention of Federal Reserve officials and economists. With GDP revised higher and GDI lower, the statistical discrepancy narrowed to -0.6% of GDP in 2021. That was revised from the previously reported -2.3% and brought the statistical discrepancy in line with historical norms. The gap was at -1.0% of GDP in 2020. Last year's initially reported unusually large statistical discrepancy in part reflected challenges handling the massive subsidies in the national accounts. According to the BEA, the blowout in the GDP/GDI gap had not led to changes in the methodology and there would be no changes in procedures going forward. "There's no question that the record level of subsidies related to the pandemic certainly created challenges for harmonizing the story between GDP and GDI," Dave Wasshausen, chief of the Expenditure and Income Division at the BEA told reporters. "All the COVID-related special effects tables have been posted. We've updated all of those tables and all along the goal has been to strive for transparency so people understand exactly how we're interpreting those programs and how to book them on the gross domestic income side of the accounts as subsidies or grants or what have you." Subsidies were revised down to $478.8 billion in 2021 from the previously reported $490.0 billion. Tax credits to fund paid sick leave and employee retention accounted for the bulk of the revision. The initial projections for subsidies were drawn from Congressional Budget Office and Treasury Department reports. The revisions were based on actual claims information from the Treasury Department's Office of Tax Analysis. Overall, the GDP revisions to data from the fourth quarter of 2016 through the fourth quarter of 2021 did not change the economic picture. But the short pandemic recession was slightly less steep than previously reported.

U.S. Economy Weaker Than Thought in Year’s First Half, by One Measure - A key measure of U.S. economic output grew more slowly in the first half of the year than previously believed, government data released Thursday showed. Conflicting Signals Revisions brought two measures of output closer together, but it still isn’t clear whether the economy is shrinking or growing. Gross domestic product, a better-known measure of inflation-adjusted output, shrank during both periods, at a 1.6 percent rate in the first quarter and a 0.6 percent rate in the second. Those figures were unchanged from earlier estimates. Taken together, the two measures suggest economic growth was at best anemic in the first half of the year. At worst, the economy had been shrinking for two consecutive quarters, a common, though unofficial, definition of a recession. An average of the two measures, which some economists consider more reliable than either individual figure, shows that output shrank slightly in the first half of the year. The conflicting signals sent by the two measures of output in recent quarters had been something of an economic mystery because, in theory, the two indicators should be identical. G.D.P. measures the value of all the goods and services produced and sold in the country; the lesser-known gross domestic income measures all the money earned by individuals, businesses and other organizations. Because one person’s spending is someone else’s income, the two figures should add up to the same amount. In practice, the two measures rarely align perfectly because they are derived from different data sources. Recently, however, they diverged sharply, which government statisticians attributed in part to the big shifts in economic activity caused by the pandemic, as well as difficulty accounting for the huge aid programs enacted to combat it. Before the latest revisions, government data showed gross domestic income as $773 billion larger than gross domestic product in the second quarter of this year, a gap of nearly 4 percent.

Q3 GDP Tracking: 1% to 2% Range -- From BofA: Overall, the data since our last weekly publication and our updated assumptions on trade boosted our 3Q US GDP tracking from 0.8% q/q saar to 1.5% q/q saar. [September 30th estimate] From Goldman: Following this morning’s data and yesterday’s revisions, we have lowered our Q3 GDP tracking forecast by 0.5pp to +0.9% (qoq ar). [September 30th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.4 percent on September 30, up from 0.3 percent on September 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.4 percent and -7.6 percent, respectively, to 1.0 percent and -4.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.10 percentage points to 2.20 percentage points. [September 30th estimate]

Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 25th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 2.7% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - had been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019. Travel has picked up recently compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 22nd. Movie ticket sales were at $71 million last week, down about 52% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is compared to a strong year for hotels). This data is through Sept 17th. The occupancy rate was down 2.4% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of September 16th, gasoline supplied was down 6.9% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.

10Y Yield Soars To 12 Year High After Dismal 2Y Auction -Just when you thought it couldn't possibly get any worse for the bond market, we got a dire 2Y auction. One minute after 1pm, the Treasury announced results from today's sale of $43 billion in 2Y paper, which were nothing short of disastrous. The high yield - already the highest in 15 years - was almost a full percent, or 98bps, above August's 3.307%, and stopping at a high yield of 4.290%, the auction tailed the When Issued 4.274% by 1.6bps, the biggest tail going back to feb 2020 when the bond market was similarly paralyzed, but back then it was due to covid. The bid to cover of 2.510 was a modest improvement to last month's 2.488, but below the six-auction average of 2.56. As shown in the chart below, the BTC oln the 2Y auction has been largely stuck around 2.50 since 2018. The internals were also ugly, with Indirects taking down just 52.95%, the lowest since June and far below the recent average of 59.5%. And with Directs awarded an impressive 24.84%, Dealers were left holding 22.20%, in line with last month's 22.95%, if above the recent average of 18.6%. Overall, a very ugly auction but that was to be expected a time when pretty much everything is blowing up. And sure enough, the 10Y yield spiked to session highs after the results from today's dismal auction were announced, pushing the 10Y as high as 3.90%, the highest level since June 2010, and sparking the biggest VaR shock of a generation.

Gruesome, Tailing 2Y Auction Sends Yields To Session High, 10Y At 3.99% - One day after a dismal 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury held another dismal auction , this time for 5Y paper, which just like yesterday immediately sent yields to session highs. Today's sale of $44BN in 5Y paper priced at a high yield of 4.228%, some 100bps higher than August's 3.220%, and the highest since the global financial crisis. The auction was also a 2.6bps tail to the 4.202% When Issued, one of the biggest tails on record. The bid to cover was 2.26, the lowest since Feb 2021, and down from the already dire 2.30 last month. The internals were just a bit better, with Indirects at 59.6%, below last month's 61.18% and also below the six-auction average of 61.9%, if above June's low of 56.5%. And with Directs awarded 18.7%, or just around the recent average of 19.0%, Dealers were left holding 21.7%, the highest since June. Overall, this was another catastrophic TSY auction coming at a time when every day we see more blow ups in bonds around the world, and sure enough the 10Y promptly spiked to session highs, rising just above 3.99% if not crossing 4.00% just yet.

 Yields Tumble After Stellar 7Y Auction - After a series of catastrophic coupon auctions, moments ago the US Treasury sold $32BN in 7 paper in what was one of the strongest sales in weeks. And all it took was a pivot by the Bank of England, one which most traders now expect will sooner or later come to the US. Stopping at a high yield of 3.898%, the auction was the first one in weeks to stop through the When Issued 3.903% by 0.5bps; it was the 3rd consecutive stop through for the 7 Year tenor since a modest tail in June; the auction was also one giant step higher than the 3.130% yield on the August 7Y auction, and the highest yield since the GFC. The bid to cover dipped modestly from last month's 2.655 to 2.569, if just above the six-auction average of 2.547. The internals were on the weaker side, with Indirects taking down 62.5%, down from 75.7% last mointh and below the 68.7% recent average. And with Directs taking down a solid 24.7% - one of the highest on record - Dealers were left holding 12.85% of the auction. Overall, this was a very solid auction and understandably it has sent yields plunging both in the US - where the 10Y just dropped to a session low of 3.733% after rising above 4.00% just hours earlier... ... and globally, with 30Y gilts up (in price) a remarkable 25% today!

With an Oct. 1 shutdown looming, Congress has a short term funding bill --Senate Democratic leaders unveiled a stopgap government funding bill overnight, just days before federal agencies run out of money on Friday. The continuing resolution funds the government through Dec. 16 and keeps spending at the same levels, giving Appropriations committees in both the House and Senate more time to iron out a broader budget deal for the rest of the fiscal year. The legislation also includes roughly $12 billion for Ukraine assistance. Congress has already approved tens of billions in military and humanitarian aid for the country after Russia invaded in February. The measure also includes $20 million to help Jackson, Miss., clean up its water crisis, $2.5 billion to address damage from a wildfire in New Mexico, and $1 billion to boost funding for a low-income home heating program.Under a deal previously negotiated by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., the bill also includes legislation, drafted by Manchin, that overhauls how the government approves permits for energy production. Manchin obtained a pledge to attach his bill in return for his supporting the Inflation Reduction Act, a health care and energy bill approved in a party line vote in August.The Senate is slated to take a procedural vote on the stopgap funding bill on Tuesday evening, just days before the deadline to avoid a shutdown.But there has been bipartisan opposition to Manchin's permitting proposal, which would need 60 votes to advance as part of the package. Many Republicans are still upset that Manchin joined Democrats to back the broad climate and health care bill after saying he couldn't vote for a broad domestic spending package, known as Build Back Better. Manchin's support for a scaled down version that included provisions to lower prescription drug prices and invest in energy programs gave Democrats and President Biden a significant legislative victory heading into the 2022 midterms.A bloc of progressive Democrats, led by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, is joining GOP senators, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, to oppose the permitting proposal, arguing new projects could negatively impact communities of color.Manchin has said the combination of Sanders and Senate Republicans is "strange bedfellows" and amounts to "revenge politics," and he calls his plan an opportunity to boost U.S. energy production at a time when the country is dealing with inflation.Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations panel, said in a written statement, "We have made significant progress toward a Continuing Resolution that is as clean as possible. But, if the Democrats insist on including permitting reform, I will oppose it."

Manchin's permitting-reform bill splits Dems - The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2022, the permitting-reform bill introduced by Senator Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday, has split clean-energy advocates and Democrats in Congress over a fundamental question: whether to support a law that could make it easier to build harmful fossil fuel infrastructure — but would also make it easier to build the clean energy infrastructure needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. It’s a debate that’s been brewing since last month, when Schumer (D-New York) promised to support permitting reforms demanded by Manchin in exchange for the West Virginia Democrat’s support of the Inflation Reduction Act. The resulting bill, which includes rules for streamlining fossil fuel pipeline projects and special dispensation for the Mountain Valley fossil gas pipeline running through Manchin’s home state, has come under fire from environmental and conservation groups as a giveaway to fossil fuel interests — a view that’s shared by a number of Democratic members of Congress.But groups representing clean energy manufacturers, developers and corporate buyers have joined Schumer, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and President Joe Biden in backing the bill. They say it could dramatically streamline and speed the development of solar and wind power, energy storage projects and other key carbon-free resources. In particular, the bill could significantly lower the barriers to building a key piece of that low-carbon electricity infrastructure: new high-voltage transmission lines to carry solar and wind power from where it’s most cheaply produced to where it’s in greatest demand.The U.S. will need to double or triple its already record-setting growth rates for solar and wind power to cut carbon at the pace needed to meet its emissions-reduction targets. And for that to happen, thousands of miles of new transmission infrastructure will need to be built, say studies on zero-carbon scenarios from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Princeton University.But currently, transmission projects take up to a decade or more to build — if they can get built at all. In the past two decades, a number of high-profile transmission projects from thewindy Midwest plains to the forests of Maine and the Pacific Northwest have faltered in the face of opposition from states, counties, private landowners and conservation groups that have used regulatory or legal means to block permits to build them. At the same time, many transmission projects proposed by utilities and grid operators to state regulators have run aground on disputes over how to share project costs between the utilities involved, and by extension, their customers, who bear those costs via increased rates. Transmission policy reform could thus be ​“one of the single best ways to ensure that we have clean, renewable energy and that it’s not stranded — that it reaches where it needs to reach,” said Allison Nyholm, vice president of policy at the American Council on Renewable Energy, which is supporting the permitting-reform bill. “We need streamlining for transmission to happen, without a doubt,” she said.

Permitting reform faces big test in Senate this week - The Senate will take a vote Tuesday evening that could decide the immediate fate of Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin’s permitting bill and set the stage for a last-minute fight about government spending. The West Virginia Democrat has been lobbying fellow lawmakers publicly and in private conversations to support his energy permitting overhaul. He popped up on Sunday shows and published an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend blaming “extreme politics” for the current impasse on the legislation.“What else could possibly explain why any Republican would even consider supporting the same position as [Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)] when it comes to energy?” Manchin wrote.But it’s not clear he’s made much headway whipping the 60 votes he’ll need to clear it in the divided Senate. That’s not to mention the House, where dozens of Democrats say they are staunchly opposed.One climate hawk, Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.), announced Monday night he would support the effort, saying “there is more good than bad in this bill,” while citing transmission deployment.Government funding expires Friday, so Congress is racing to pass a stopgap bill to keep the government open. The Senate Appropriations Committee released the text of that bill overnight with the latest version of permitting reform attached.Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) struck a deal to couple the permitting bill with the spending bill, known as a continuing resolution, as a condition of Manchin’s support in August for the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ massive new climate and tax law.If the test vote fails Tuesday evening, Democrats may be forced to proceed with a CR that extends government spending until December and includes a handful of supplemental spending requests.The text released overnight would run through Dec. 16 and includes billions of dollars for wildfire and disaster relief, and $1 billion in new dollars for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, according to a summary.Most Senate Democrats are likely to back Manchin, but there are a few key holdouts.Sanders has voiced his displeasure with the permitting bill for weeks. Other progressives, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), say they are wary of voting on it as an attachment to the CR.Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) is vehemently opposed to a provision of the bill that would authorize the Mountain Valley pipeline, a contentious project that would transport natural gas between West Virginia and Virginia (E&E Daily, Sept. 16).Manchin is a longtime backer of the project, and it’s a major impetus for the permitting bill, which includes provisions to shorten environmental reviews, centralize permitting for transmission and limit judicial scrutiny (E&E Daily, Sept. 22).“I was not consulted about it,” Kaine said last week. “I will do everything I can to oppose it.”The latest permitting language does not include reforms to the Clean Water Act Section 401 certification process after members from both sides of the aisle expressed concerns. That dynamic leaves Manchin in need of more than 10 Republican votes. While the GOP traditionally supports permitting reform, Republicans were furious with Manchin after he helped Democrats pass the Inflation Reduction Act.Manchin picked up a key ally last week in fellow West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, the top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee and a supporter of the Mountain Valley pipeline (E&E Daily, Sept. 23).Capito introduced her own permitting measure earlier in September, with harder-line provisions codifying Trump-era regulations and support from nearly every other Senate Republican (E&E Daily, Sept. 13).Many GOP lawmakers are using it as a benchmark, arguing that Manchin’s bill is incremental and not worth voting for in comparison.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is whipping his party against Manchin’s legislation, according to POLITICO. McConnell last week referred to it as “reform in name only.”“If our colleagues across the aisle want real permitting reform, Sen. Capito’s fantastic bill only needs Sen. Manchin plus nine more Democrats to clear this chamber,” McConnell said on the floor recently.“Otherwise,” he said, “it would appear the senior senator from West Virginia traded his vote on a massive liberal boondoggle in exchange for nothing.”

Manchin's pitch to energy leaders: IRA without permitting reform a missed opportunity— Sen. Joe Manchin pitched his permitting reform legislation to a crowd of global energy leaders and private sector executives as essential to achieving the full goals of the Inflation Reduction Act he helped craft. The West Virginia Democrat also told the crowd at the Global Clean Energy Action Forum in Pittsburgh that the Senate would start voting on the permitting legislation next week, likely on Tuesday. But the legislation faces stiff opposition in both parties. Manchin’s appearance was disrupted by a handful of protesters seemingly opposed to the bill’s provisions aimed to help spur completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which the senator is a staunch advocate of. This followed a protest Thursday against permitting of natural gas infrastructure at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by opponents of efforts to build new fossil fuel infrastructure in the United States. Most of the developed world can build and permit infrastructure in a few years, but the U.S. permitting process can take as long as a decade, Manchin said. “Why should we be at a disadvantage and can’t compete?” he said. “We know what needs to be done. Why can’t we be able to do it?” In the Inflation Reduction Act, “everything’s based on a 10-year window,” Manchin added. “If it takes seven to eight years or longer to permit something, we’re going to miss the window for having those investments come to fruition and you miss that window, then you’re going to have money stranded out there.” Democrats’ party-line climate and clean energy spending bill was enacted earlier this year after more than a year of negotiations that were halted more than once by Manchin. The ultimate legislation that took the form of the Inflation Reduction Act included long-term investments in traditional clean energy sources like wind and solar through expanded tax credits, as well as new incentives for energy storage, domestic manufacturing, clean hydrogen and advanced nuclear. As part of a deal struck with Democratic leadership to pass the climate bill, Manchin introduced legislation this week attached to a must-pass continuing resolution to reform the federal permitting process. The permitting bill would set limits on environmental reviews and require the president to identify energy projects of critical national importance. The legislation also directed agencies to “take all necessary actions” to issue new permits for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a delayed project that would deliver natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia and North Carolina. But the legislation still faces tough odds with opposition from both progressive Democrats and staunch Republicans. “By next week, we’ll either have a permitting process that accelerates and lets us compete on a global basis of how we do things and bring things to market or not,” Manchin said. He added it will “take an awful lot of heavy lifting” in the next two or three days, but said he is hopeful the legislation will overcome opposition. “Everyone wins from this if they’ll look at it,” he said. “It’s not about one person. It should not be about one person. It should be about, ‘Is this good for our country?’”

Transmission development key to Inflation Reduction Act’s climate potential: report | Utility Dive -The U.S. high-voltage transmission system needs to grow 2.3% a year, up from its 1% annual growth rate over the last decade, to meet the Inflation Reduction Act’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential, according to a report released Friday by the Princeton University-led REPEAT Project. The law’s carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential falls by 80% if the pace of transmission additions remains unchanged and falls by 25% if transmission growth increases to only 1.5% a year, the REPEAT Project analysis found. “If electricity transmission cannot be expanded fast enough, power sector emissions and associated pollution and public health impacts could increase significantly as gas and coal-fired power plants produce more to meet growing demand from electric vehicles and other electrification” spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act, REPEAT Project analysts said in the report. The report shows how reaching the emissions reduction potential of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in August, depends on increasing the pace of transmission development. The law could cut annual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by about 1 billion metric tons a year by 2030, helping drive down carbon emissions by about 42% from 2005 levels, according to preliminary analysisreleased last month by the REPEAT Project. REPEAT stands for Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit. “That outcome depends on more than doubling the historical pace of electricity transmission expansion over the last decade in order to interconnect new renewable resources at sufficient pace and meet growing demand from electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other electrification,” the REPEAT Project analysts said in the latest report. “While our modeling finds this outcome makes economic sense, current transmission planning, siting, permitting and cost allocation practices can all potentially impede the real-world pace of transmission expansion,” the analysts said. Developing and building high-voltage transmission lines can take years. Last year, 193 miles of 230-kV and larger transmission lines started operating, down from 1,133 miles in 2020, according to aninfrastructure report the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued in March. The agency estimated that transmission projects totaling 2,144 miles had a high probability of coming online between January 2022 and June 2024.

Senate Reaches a Deal to Avoid a Shutdown, Punts Threat for 10 Weeks - The Senate on Tuesday reached an agreement to keep agencies afloat through Dec. 16, dropping controversial provisions from a stopgap funding bill in order to win bipartisan support. The continuing resolution, which would keep the government open past the Friday evening expiration of current appropriations, was originally set to include a measure to speed up the permitting process for some major energy projects. After Republican leaders and some Democrats came out against the provision on Tuesday, Democratic leadership agreed to drop the provision to ensure the CR could pass. The Senate on Tuesday evening, by a 72-23 margin, approved the first in a series of votes to move the measure forward. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who authored the permitting changes, said just before a scheduled preliminary vote on the spending bill Tuesday evening that he did not want to put his permitting reforms up for a vote just to see them fail. "For that reason, and my firmly held belief that we should never come to the brink of a government shutdown over politics, I have asked Majority Leader Schumer to remove the permitting language from the continuing resolution we will vote on this evening." Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., who had promised to put the energy project changes into the CR as part of an agreement he struck this summer with Manchin to win is support for the Inflation Reduction Act, said minutes later on the Senate floor he agreed to strip the energy-related measure from the CR. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., put the death knell into the reform earlier in the day when he called it a “poison pill” and announced he would be voting against any CR that included it. He called on Democrats to put forward a spending measure without the energy provisions, saying such a bill would have bipartisan support. Many Republican lawmakers throughout the day Tuesday echoed that call for a CR vote without the permitting reforms—which they said did not go far enough—and offered their support for the rest of the stopgap bill. The roughly 10-week spending bill would keep agencies funded at their current levels into the lame duck session of Congress, punting on appropriations until after the midterm elections but creating a new deadline before the new Congress is seated. The measure includes "anomalies" to provide funding increases for certain programs, such as $400 million to increase hiring at the Social Security Administration; $20 million for the Army Corps of Engineers to assist with the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi; and $1 billion for the Health and Human Services Department's Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. It also includes more than $12 billion for Ukraine aid, matching the White House’s request, and new funding for disaster relief. It would not provide the requested funds to address monkeypox and COVID-19.

Gas Pipeline Dealt a Blow as Manchin Withdraws Bill - A US government funding bill was stripped of an effort to speed up the federal approval process for energy projects, dealing a major setback to efforts to fast-track the approval of energy infrastructure including a stalled $6.6 billion natural gas pipeline. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday he agreed to a request by Senator Joe Manchin to remove permitting reform language from the stopgap government spending bill after it became clear the measure didn’t have the votes needed to advance. In a vote immediately after the decision was announced, the bill had enough support to advance in the Senate. “It is unfortunate that members of the United States Senate are allowing politics to put the energy security of our nation at risk,” Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia who had proposed the energy provision, said in a statement. “A failed vote on something as critical as comprehensive permitting reform only serves to embolden leaders like Putin who wish to see America fail.” Talks on how to advance the measure before the end of the year will continue, Schumer said in remarks on the Senate floor. Manchin’s proposal would have required federal agencies to approve and issue all permits necessary for the construction of Equitrans Midstream Corp.’s stalled Mountain Valley pipeline within 30 days. Construction on the 303-mile (488-kilometer) conduit, which crosses Manchin’s home state, has been stalled after a federal court in January rejected a permit to cross a national forest following a challenge by environmentalists. Shares of Equitrans dropped 4.2% in after-market trading in New York. Manchin’s bill would also have put a two-year time goal on environmental reviews for large energy projects and one year for smaller ones. In addition, the legislation would be allow the president to designate a list of at least 25 “high-priority energy infrastructure projects” for which permitting would be prioritized and expected the approval process for electricity transmission projects for far flung renewable energy projects that benefited from Democrats recently passed climate package. The bill received pushback from Republicans, who saw the proposed permitting reform as political payback for the senator’s vote on the spending bill, and from Democrats who said it would roll back key environmental protections. Environmental groups also cheered the withdrawal. “While the campaign against polluting oil and gas is far from over, this repudiation of Senator Manchin’s so-called permitting reform bill marks a huge victory against dirty energy – and also against dirty backroom Washington dealmaking,” Wenonah Hauter, the executive director of Food & Water Watch said.

Senate advances stopgap funding bill minus Manchin language - The Senate on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to start debate on a stopgap government funding bill without Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reform language. The stopgap bill, known as a continuing resolution, would keep the government’s lights on through Dec. 16 and include $12.4 billion in aid for Ukraine against Russia, $4.5 billion for natural disaster assistance, $1 billion to help with heating homes this coming winter and $20 million to deal with the water crisis in Jackson, Miss., among other things. The deadline to pass the measure and avert a government shutdown is Friday at midnight. Passage of the bill 72-23 came after its biggest hurdle was removed less than an hour before the planned vote. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced that he would heed Manchin’s wish to strip language that would have changed the approval process for energy infrastructure — and help greenlight the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline — from the bill. The funding bill needed 60 votes to advance to debate and permitting reform had been opposed by Senate Republicans and House Democrats. All 23 “no” votes came from Republicans. Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) did not vote. “Senate Republicans have made clear they will block legislation to fund the government if it includes bipartisan permitting reform, because they’ve chosen to obstruct instead of work in a bipartisan way to achieve something they’ve long claimed they want to do,” Schumer said in a floor speech, according to a transcript of his remarks. “Because American families should not be subjected to a Republican-manufactured government shutdown, Senator Manchin has requested, and I have agreed, to move forward and pass the recently-filed Continuing Resolution legislation without the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2022.” Manchin, in his own statement, declined to criticize either party tanking his legislation. “It is unfortunate that members of the United States Senate are allowing politics to put the energy security of our nation at risk,” he said. “A failed vote on something as critical as comprehensive permitting reform only serves to embolden leaders like Putin who wish to see America fail. For that reason and my firmly held belief that we should never come to the brink of a government shutdown over politics, I have asked Majority Leader Schumer to remove the permitting language from the Continuing Resolution we will vote on this evening,” he added.

Why Manchin backed off on his top priority - Minutes before he would have crashed and burned, Joe Manchin found an escape hatch.After 20 months as the focal point of the 50-50 Senate, the West Virginia Democrat found himself with only one good option as Republicans were set to defeat his signature energy permitting legislation: yank it from government funding legislation. The move kept alive Manchin’s top priority of speeding approval for energy projects, yet he has no guarantee that it will find a more welcome reception later this year.Manchin’s permitting bill began as a coda to his outsized leverage in a Congress that found him playing decisive roles in everything from a bipartisan infrastructure law to post-Jan. 6 presidential certification reform to two massive Democratic-only bills. The centrist hatched a two-part deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer this summer: First Manchin would help pass a party-line climate, health care and tax bill, then Schumer would take up a plan to expedite big energy projects including West Virginia’s own Mountain Valley Pipeline.But Manchin’s final major priority after a stretch in which everything broke his way needed the support of Republicans. And there were simply too many problems for him to solve in too short a time after releasing his legislation just last week. His home-state GOP colleague Sen. Shelley Moore Capito has her own permitting bill, and Republicans who want to defeat Manchin in 2024 largely have no desire to help him out of a jam.“He thought he was going to pass a bill and get it signed into law. He miscalculated, is the nicest way I could put it,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a close ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who whipped against Manchin’s effort behind the scenes and publicly pushed for its defeat on Tuesday.Manchin won't 'second guess' McConnell's motives on energy billDemocrats saw Alanis-level irony in Republicans taking down a policy priority so many of them have talked for years about enacting. “If Senator Manchin thought they were going to agree to something that he knew that they wanted, then I guess you could call this a miscalculation,” retorted Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), who supports Manchin’s permitting bill. “Or you could say that they’re playing politics.”

White House hits GOP over removal of Manchin permitting reform --The White House on Tuesday said it supported Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) decision to have permitting reform language removed from a stopgap government funding bill, blaming Republicans for opposing the plan. “We support Senator Manchin’s decision not to press for a floor vote given the misguided Republican decision to put politics over progress by opposing his permitting reform plan,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement. Manchin asked Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to remove the language earlier on Tuesday after Republicans in the Senate and Democrats in the House voiced opposition to it. Senate Democrats did not appear to have the 60 votes necessary to proceed. When Manchin had the language removed, he did not explicitly blame either party, but said “It is unfortunate that members of the United States Senate are allowing politics to put the energy security of our nation at risk.” In her statement, Jean-Pierre reiterated that the White House supported Manchin’s plan. She said permitting reform “is necessary for our energy security, and to make more clean energy available to the American people.” Additionally, Jean-Pierre said the White House will work to find a way to get Manchin’s permitting plan passed. “We will continue to work with him to find a vehicle to bring this bill to the floor and get it passed and to the President’s desk,” she said. After Schumer removed Manchin’s permitting reform language, the Senate voted overwhelmingly to start debate on the government funding measure. The deadline to pass the measure and avert a government shutdown is Friday at midnight and this measure will fund the government through Dec. 16.

The unlikely allies who sank Joe Manchin’s energy deal --In a surprising team-up, progressives and Republicans banded together to oppose a bill backed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) that would have loosened oil and gas permitting regulations, forcing lawmakers to drop the measure from a must-pass government funding package. Following growing pressure from both groups, Manchin called for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to cut the permitting reforms from a short-term funding bill just before it was scheduled to go up for a vote on Tuesday.Manchin said in a statement he didn’t want to put government funding at risk and added that “a failed vote on something as critical as comprehensive permitting reform only serves to embolden leaders like Putin who wish to see America fail.” Because of the collective pushback from progressives and Republicans, the bill wouldn’t have had the 60 votes it needed to advance if permitting reform were left in the package. By removing it, lawmakers cleared the way for the funding bill to pass the Senate as well as the House, where many Democrats had also spoken out against the inclusion of this proposal. This outcome is ultimately the result of both policy disagreements and personal grudges. While progressives were staunchly against the permitting measure due to environmental concerns, Republicans opposed it because they felt the bill didn’t relax restrictions enough. And in the wake of Manchin’s support for Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act — which passed along party lines — Republicans were eager to prevent him from getting a win, despite their own interest in the same reforms. Manchin’s permitting reforms were part of an agreement he originally made with Schumer earlier this year. In that deal, Manchin agreed to support the Inflation Reduction Act — a landmark health care and climate bill — and Schumer agreed to hold a vote on permitting reforms, which the West Virginia senator has long pushed for. Because the short-term funding bill must pass for the government to pay its bills, the plan was to attach the permitting reforms to this measure.The reforms that Manchin wanted, however, quickly garnered progressive pushback.In particular, progressives argued that setting a two-year target for the completion of environmental reviews and reducing the time community members have to file legal challenges would have significantly weakened residents’ ability to protect their communities.Manchin’s measure would have also guaranteed permit approvals for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a natural gas pipeline running through West Virginia and Virginia, which has been blocked by the courts due to environmental impacts. This provision in particular was concerning for a number of Democrats, who saw the move as circumventing the courts’ decision to slow the development of the pipeline to the benefit of the energy companies involved in the project.“Allowing a corporation that is unhappy about losing a case to strip jurisdiction away from the entire court that is handled the case is [unprecedented],” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) previously told E&E News. “It would open the door for massive abuse and corruption, so I can’t support it.” The Democratic senators opposing the plan joined more than 70 House members, led by Rep. Raúl Grijalva, who pushed House leadership to separate the permitting reforms legislation from the CR earlier this month. That message was echoed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who denounced the Manchin deal as a “giveaway to the fossil fuel industry.” Separately, Republicans have expressed their own issues with Manchin’s legislation. Since multiple Democrats in addition to Sanders opposed the bill, Manchin would have needed more than 10 Republicans to support it for it to hit the 60-vote threshold required for passage. The GOP backing he received ultimately fell short, with just Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) saying publicly that she would vote for the legislation.As Politico reported, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was actively whipping lawmakers against voting for the Manchin bill, even though Republicans have long been eager to advance permitting reforms. Depriving Manchin of a win he’s sought for years, especially after he joined with Democrats for the party-line passage of the IRA, was a central issue at play.

Schumer Is Getting More Mountain Valley Pipeline Money From NextEra Than Manchin Is | The New Republic -At the center of the ongoing debate over permitting reform—now encapsulated in Senator Joe Manchin’s Energy Independence and Security Act—lies a single unfinished piece of energy infrastructure: theMountain Valley Pipeline. Stretching from northern West Virginia through to southern Virginia, the 300-plus-mile-long project is slated to transport two billion cubic feet of fracked gas per day, much of that bound for export. Manchin’s bill would speed along the project’s construction, fast-tracking permits and redirecting extensive and ongoing court challenges against it. If completed, the pipeline is estimated to pour 26 coal plants’ worth of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Manchin’s enthusiasm for the project, which has faced fierce opposition along its route, is predictable. He’s long tried to promote his state’s fossil fuel industry and has accepted generous donations from backers of the pipeline. Gas pipeline companies have ratcheted up their spending on Manchin this year, from $20,000 in 2020 to $331,000 in 2022 so far. He’s the industry’s largest recipient of campaign funds overall. The deal to green-light the Mountain Valley Pipeline, then, has been portrayed in the media as a necessary and savvy bit of politicking to guarantee Manchin’s vote on the Inflation Reduction Act: Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who brokered the deal, may not have wanted to fast-track the Mountain Valley Pipeline, but it’s a small price to pay for the IRA’s climate policies.This is the dominant media narrative right now. But it doesn’t quite tell the whole story. Schumer, not Manchin, is the single largest recipient of donations from one of the pipeline’s backers this year, NextEra. Schumer has received four times as many donations from employees and the company’s PAC this year as Manchin has.The Mountain Valley Pipeline is a joint venture between EQM Midstream Partners, NextEra Capital Holdings, Con Edison Transmission, WGL Midstream, and RGC Midstream. By far the biggest spender in Washington has been NextEra, which owns a number of utilities and energy infrastructure projects around the country. Over the last year, Manchin has received $59,350 from NextEra, including $55,850 from individuals and $3,500 from the company’s PAC, according tocampaign finance data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. Schumer has received $283,200, including $278,200 from individuals and $5,000 from the company’s PAC. ConEd has given Schumer $500 this year, and $2,500 since the 2017–18 campaign cycle. Over the same time period, Manchin’s campaign committees have received $15,500 from NextEra, while Schumer’s has gotten $10,000. Schumer’s office did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.NextEra has been Schumer’s second-largest donor this year overall, despite never having breached his top-five list of donors previously. The utility holding company, whose subsidiaries include Florida Power and Light and Gulf Power, hasn’t historically had a major footprint in New York. Earlier this year, NextEra Energy Transmission—the subsidiary backing the Mountain Valley Pipeline and with plenty to gain from the permitting reform package’s transmission-related elements—finishedwork on a transmission line through New York. Schumer’s campaign donations from NextEra this year are three times the amount he’s received from the company in total since joining the Senate in 2018. All but 12 of the 144 donations Friends of Schumer PAC received from NextEra employees between 2021 and 2022 have been $1,000 or more, according to the Federal Election Commission.The Mountain Valley Pipeline has accumulated more than 350 water quality violations and other environmental infractions since construction began in 2018. The permitting reform bill would go to remarkable lengths to protect the project from local and national scrutiny, mandating that any future legal challenges to either the pipeline or any of the bill’s provisions be brought in the D.C. District Court. It would mandate that judicial review panels more generally be compiled by random selection, seen as a potential reaction to the Mountain Valley Pipeline getting repeatedly rejected for permits by the Fourth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

U.S. Congress to vote on continuing resolution to fund government through midterm elections - On September 26, Senate Appropriation Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) unveiled a continuing resolution (CR) that would fund the federal government at current Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 spending levels through December 16, 2022. With current government spending set to expire at midnight on September 30, the U.S. Congress is slated to consider the stopgap funding measure this week. The U.S. Senate began consideration of the measure on September 27 and the U.S. House of Representatives should consider the CR later in the week. Of particular note to counties, the CR does not include legislation such as the bipartisan State, Local, Tribal and Territorial Fiscal Recovery, Infrastructure and Disaster Relief Flexibility Act (S. 3011/H.R. 5735) that would provide counties with additional flexibilities in investing American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds. The bill was approved by unanimous consent in the U.S. Senate in October 2021 and would also provide the U.S. Department of the Treasury with flexibility in its use of administrative funds to support counties in carrying out crucial programs and invest ARPA Recovery Funds. Without this flexibility, we are concerned that Treasury’s diminished capacity to administer these programs will hamper counties’ efforts to spend funds effectively and meet the most pressing needs in our communities. NACo urges Congress to include S. 3011/H.R. 5735 in the next legislative or spending vehicle so counties can continue to respond to and recover from the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic.Beyond the exclusion of S. 3011, the CR does not include any additional emergency supplemental funding to address COVID-19 or the monkeypox outbreak. The CR also includes several provisions beyond a direct extension of funding enacted for FY 2022, including supplemental and emergency spending and expiring program extensions through the duration the CR. The stopgap measure includes:

• $2 billion for the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR) program
• $62 million to support operation of the 988 National Suicide Prevention Lifeline and provide services to 988 callers through FY 2023
• An extension of the Federal Communication Commission’s authority to manage non-governmental use of spectrum
• $1 billion in funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP) program
• An extension of the Maternal, Infant and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program (MIECHV)
• An extension of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program
• An extension of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
• A provision allowing FEMA to access over $18 billion up front to respond to current and future disasters
• An extension of child welfare programs authorized under Title IV-B of the Social Security Act, which support states, territories and tribes with funds to protect children; support, preserve and reunite families; and promote and support adoption
• An extension of authorization for several veterans homelessness programs under the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) through September 2024.

House GOP calls for ‘no’ vote on CR --House Republican leadership is urging its members to oppose a stopgap funding bill to avoid a shutdown in Washington.Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) sent a memo to House GOP offices Tuesday night recommending that members vote against the continuing resolution (CR), which would keep the government funded at last year’s fiscal levels until Dec. 16.The measure also includes roughly $12.3 billion to aid Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia.In its memo, GOP leadership encouraged members of the conference to vote “no” on the CR as a rebuke for Democrats allegedly not negotiating with Republicans on key issues, including inflation, the border and the opioid crisis.They also took issue with the length of the CR — the Dec. 16 expiration date gives the Democratic House majority an opportunity to craft a funding plan during the lame-duck session after Election Day.“The Majority has refused to negotiate with Ranking Member Granger or any other House Republican leader on pressing issues relating to our government funding priorities, including runaway inflation, the supply chain crisis, the border crisis, or the opioid deaths associated with drugs like fentanyl coming across our open southern border, and have instead decided to kick the can to December, setting up another government funding showdown during the unaccountable lame duck period,” the memo reads, referring to House Appropriations Committee ranking member Kay Granger (R-Texas).The Senate is currently considering the stopgap, which is expected to pass the upper chamber and head to the House on Thursday ahead of a Friday deadline. The measure cleared its first procedural vote on Tuesday night after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) asked Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to strip his controversial permitting reform from it.Over the summer, Schumer promised Manchin that his legislation reforming permitting for energy projects would be tacked onto the spending bill in exchange for the West Virginia Democrat’s support of the Inflation Reduction Act, which Congress narrowly passed and President Biden signed into law last month.Democrats and Republicans in both chambers lined up against Manchin’s legislation, putting the CR in jeopardy and increasing the chances of a government shutdown. Manchin asked Schumer to nix his provision roughly 30 minutes before the first procedural vote.Even before the permitting reform issue had been hashed out, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) made clear his opposition to the continuing resolution.In a statement last week, McCarthy said he would vote against the funding bill because of the December expiration date and because it does not address issues at the border.“President Biden is asking for a government funding bill that simply kicks the can to an unaccountable lame-duck Congress that does nothing to actually address the nation’s problems — especially the crisis at our southern border,” McCarthy wrote.“If Biden & Democrats don’t use this government funding bill to address the border crisis immediately, I’m voting NO on this bill, and I urge my colleagues to do the same,” he added.

Most House Republicans oppose stopgap spending bill - The House approved stopgap spending legislation this afternoon to avert a government shutdown at midnight. The continuing resolution passed 230-201, with only 10 Republicans backing it. President Joe Biden is poised to sign the bill. None of the 16 House Republicans from Florida backed the legislation, which could deliver billions of dollars in relief to their state in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian this week. The CR contains a provision that would allow the Federal Emergency Management Agency to tap $18.8 billion to cover the cost of current and future national disasters. Florida Republican Reps. Byron Donalds, Gus Bilirakis and Vern Buchanan, who represent Gulf Coast districts hard hit by Ian, did not immediately return calls explaining why they opposed the bill. All pressed the Biden administration to declare the state a major disaster area, a move the president backed this week that paves the way for federal support. “We are talking about hurricane relief for God’s sake. I’m begging my Republican friends: Can we at least come together to agree on relief for communities devastated by hurricanes?” said House Rules Chair Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) during floor debate. Republicans countered they opposed the stopgap to protest Democrats locking them out of crafting the annual spending bills. Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a senior appropriator and ranking member on the Rules Committee, said Democrats need to “get serious” so the parties can finalize spending in an omnibus package before the CR expires on Dec. 16. Lawmakers from both parties said it seems likely Congress at some point will need to pass a supplemental emergency funding bill to cover damage and recovery costs associated with Ian. “Hurricane Ian will be remembered and studied as one of the most devastating hurricanes to hit the United States,” Florida Republican Sens. Rick Scott and Marco Rubio wrote top appropriators this week, stressing a “timely” and “robust” federal response. Scott was one of 25 Republicans who opposed the CR when it passed the Senate earlier this week. Rubio missed the vote to remain in Florida to prepare for the storm.

 Senate passes funding bill to likely thwart weekend shutdown - The Senate approved a stopgap spending bill on Thursday afternoon that funds the government through mid-December, sending it to the House and likely averting a government shutdown that would hit in less than 48 hours. The stopgap would fund the government through Dec. 16, granting congressional appropriators more time for talks on a broader funding package before the end of the year. After passing the Senate 72-25 the measure now heads to the House, where top Democrats told members Thursday morning that they could pass the bill as soon as Thursday evening. A vote could easily spill into Friday, however, sending it to President Joe Biden’s desk before the midnight deadline. Senate leaders reached an agreement to speed passage of the short-term funding fix on Thursday after Biden signed off on a temporary 100 percent federal cost-share waiver for typhoon aid in Alaska, appeasing the state’s GOP senators. Republican Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana also backed off an effort to delay the vote after he secured floor time to expound on the benefits of balanced budgets. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said her disaster relief request, which would allow the federal government to shoulder more of the cost burden for typhoon recovery in the state for the next 30 days, was resolved by Biden’s decision to amend the state’s disaster declaration. “So we’re in a better position,” she told reporters. Braun also said digging in on his budget-related amendment to hold up a vote on the stopgap would be “counterproductive.” “I’m reasonable as a rule. That’s why I got 10 minutes of floor time to talk about it,” he said. The relatively smooth path to final passage comes after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) pulled his controversial proposal to ease energy permitting from the bill, amid broad opposition from Senate Republicans and a handful of Senate Democrats. The temporary funding patch, Congress’ last major to-do item before the midterm elections, provides more than $12 billion in emergency military and economic funding to respond to the war in Ukraine. It also includes $1 billion in heating assistance for low-income families, $20 million for the water crisis in Jackson, Miss., billions in disaster aid and more than $112 million for federal court security. The measure also includes a five-year reauthorization of the user fee programs that fund much of the FDA’s work, and it would allow FEMA to spend billions of dollars through the Disaster Relief Fund at a higher rate, while federal officials rush to respond to devastating hurricanes that have slammed into Florida and Puerto Rico. Members of Congress are eager to return home ahead of the midterms, particularly in the House, where lawmakers are not scheduled to return until November. House Democrats’ top appropriator confirmed Thursday morning that they were waiting on Senate passage before setting any votes in the lower chamber. “So much depends on when they’re going to get this over to us. That’s what we’re waiting for,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said, adding: “We could do this tomorrow, it’s gonna get done.”

Yellen tells White House she'll stay as Treasury chief past midterms -- Janet Yellen, eager to see through crucial projects, has told White House officials she's prepared to remain Treasury secretary well after the midterm elections, according to people familiar with the discussions. Her desire to stay comes as White House staff begin to prepare for potential Cabinet and other senior personnel departures or changes — including on President Biden's economic team — after the November vote. People familiar with the matter characterized those discussions as preliminary and not guided by any expectation for specific departures. The people spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private talks. There has been no indication of whether Biden, who will make the ultimate call on senior posts, wants any changes. Those decisions may depend on how well or poorly Democrats do in the election, where they are trying to retain thin majorities in the House and Senate. A new Treasury secretary would require Senate approval. Yellen declined to comment. Treasury spokesman Michael Gwin said: "Secretary Yellen has no plans to leave." Yellen, 76, is keen to continue pursuing several top priorities she has spearheaded, including an international price cap on some Russian oil exports and an $80 billion modernization of the Internal Revenue Service, the people said. She's also deeply involved in overseeing big investments approved by Congress into critical industries and green energy. If she stays through next year, the ex-Federal Reserve chair would provide stability to Biden's economic agenda should turmoil across energy and financial markets morph into a broader crisis, or if slowdowns in the U.S., Europe and China result in a global recession.

US Would Trade SPR Oil for Profit, Invest in EVs Under Democrats’ Bill -

• Legislation also would create US gasoline and diesel stockpile
• DOE would have flexibility over Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Democrats are pitching a plan that would allow the US government to buy and sell crude from its emergency reserves for a profit and use that money to fund electric-car charging infrastructure. Under the so-called Buy Low and Sell High Act introduced Monday, the Energy Department would be allotted more freedom to make sales and purchases of as many as 350 million barrels for the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to maximize profits. The amount -- equivalent to almost half the stockpile’s current physical capacity -- would be earmarked for swift transactions and designated a new “Economic Petroleum Reserve.”

Biden Draining SPR Like "Campaign Credit Card" For Midterms - President Biden's reckless draining of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is nothing more than an election-year gimmick akin to using a 'credit card' to buy votes, according to Tim Stewart, president of the US Oil and Gas Association.According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the SPR hit their lowest levels since 1984 for the week ending Sept. 16. "This is the first time in history, honestly, that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been used as a campaign credit card to buy down political risk for the midterms," Stewart told Just the News."Let me put it in perspective if I could," he continued. "At the current rate, the U.S. is selling more oil out of its emergency reserves than the production of most medium-sized OPEC countries like Algeria or Angola. We're selling twice as much per day than we're producing out of Alaska. That puts us somewhere between Exxon and Conoco in terms of ... the impact we're having on the daily supply — and this is happening without new oil going into replace it."The conversation then turned to 'energy expert' Hunter Biden, who host John Solomon asked for Stewart's reaction to "the idea that the president's son ... could be working behind the scenes quietly to take our great energy wealth, send it over to China, while the boss, the president, the 'Big Guy' that they refer to in the documents, he's trying to lower our reliance [on fossil fuels] and keep us from using our energy wealth here."Stewart, who noted that the oil and gas trading industry is "very, very complex," replied: "I've been in this business for 25 years or so. And I can tell you, I am no more qualified to be a trader or a broker than an influence-peddling son of a former vice president. [Hunter Biden] had nothing to offer except for access, and access to his father, who in turn could make a call. And that's really what's wrong with Washington right now. And that is why this story is so so troubling to many of us."Stewart decried the "sheer hypocrisy" of Joe Biden "spending decades beating up on the oil and gas industry, profiting by it for that four years when he's not in public office, and then coming back in and trying to to hamstring and to kneecap our industry again." –JTN Watch:

US pledges “catastrophic” response to potential Russian use of nuclear weapons -In the aftermath of statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin Wednesday threatening to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, US officials have made clear they are actively discussing the possibility that the conflict will erupt into a nuclear exchange. “We have communicated directly, privately at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the United States and our allies will respond decisively, and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told moderator Margaret Brennan on the CBS interview program “Face the Nation” Sunday.“And it is a matter that we have to take deadly seriously, because it is a matter of paramount seriousness, the possible use of nuclear weapons for the first time since the Second World War,” he added. Later that day, the New York Times reported that US officials believe the chances of nuclear escalation “are significantly higher than they were in February and March.” The Financial Times added that the US and its allies are “increasing nuclear vigilance and deterrence, according to five western officials who spoke under the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.” The FT also reported, “The US had also discussed scenarios with the Ukrainians about possible nuclear use and walked through ‘protection and safety,’” citing a high-level official. In his appearances on the US Sunday talk shows, Sullivan confirmed a report published in the Washington Post Thursday that US officials had sent “private communications to Moscow warning Russia’s leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon.” Sullivan made these threats more explicit. He told “Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd the consequences would be “catastrophic if Russia went down the dark road of nuclear weapons use.” In response to request for clarification from Todd, Sullivan continued, “If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia. The United States will respond decisively.” Asked by Todd whether the repeated use of the term “catastrophic” means “as bad as he could imagine,” Sullivan responded, “Russia understands very well what the United States would do in response to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine because we have spelled it out for them, and I will leave it at that today.” In other words, while the Russian leadership has, according to Sullivan, been informed of the consequences of the Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the American people, who stand to be incinerated if the United States were to initiate a full strategic nuclear exchange, are to be left in the dark.

Sullivan Vows Decisive Response, Catastrophic Consequences If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons --After it was previously revealed in The Washington Post days ago that US officials have been pushing back against nuclear threats issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top officials via diplomatic backchannels, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan issued his first public response and the administration's counter-warning Sunday.Sullivan warned the US is ready to "respond decisively" if Russia crosses the "line" regarding nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, stressing it would result in "catastrophic consequences" for Moscow. Sullivan made the statements in three separate appearances on Sunday news shows. The Hill notes that while he didn't get into the details of specific US actions - such as the potential for a US nuclear response - he repeated his words of willingness to "respond decisively" seven times in the three appearances Sunday."Let me say it plainly: If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia," Sullivan told NBC’s "Meet the Press" in the Biden administration's strongest warning thus far.He added, "The United States will respond decisively. Now, in private channels we have spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean, but we want to be able to have the credibility of speaking directly to senior leadership in Russia and laying out for them what the consequences would be without getting into a rhetorical tit for tat publicly."He also said that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant falls under the administration's warnings related to Russian actions which could cause nuclear catastrophe. Sullivan outlined that any accident or deadly radiation incident at the plant, which is Europe's largest, would be Russia's fault, given its forces occupy the site: "It is actually still being operated by the Ukrainian operators who are essentially at gunpoint from the Russian occupying forces, and the Russians have been consistently implying that there may be some kind of accident at this plant," the US national security adviser said. On the same day a fresh interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky aired on CBS wherein he also addressed Putin's nuclear rhetoric. Putin it must be recalled, in his 'partial mobilization' speech on Wednesday vowed to defend Russian territory (to include portions of Ukraine which are currently holding a 5-day referendum on joining the Russian Federation) "by all available means" - further saying he's "not bluffing". This pressure turned this war into an existential conflict for Russia, making escalation to a nuclear level a real possibility. We let a networked swarm drive our policy decisions and this is the consequence.https://t.co/bkL7DlnWND

White House Sent Multiple Nuclear Warnings To Kremlin Via Backchannels -The Joe Biden administration has sent several warnings to Russia via backchannels regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Washington Post reports. The White House’s messages to Russia have been intentionally nondescript to foster uncertainty in Moscow about what the US would do if Russia deployed its ultimate weapon.The White House has sent the message several times since the war in Ukraine started, according to the US officials who spoke with the Post. The White House’s communications with the Kremlin have been intentionally vague."The United States for several months has been sending private communications to Moscow warning Russia’s leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. officials, who said the messages underscore what President Biden and his aides have articulated publicly," The Post wrote.The Biden administration believes these nonspecific threats will deter Russia through "strategic ambiguity." "Strategic ambiguity" is an intentionally unclear policy that causes the enemy not to act out of fear it could cross a red line without knowing it.For nearly 50 years, the US maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan. By refusing to commit to defending the island, Washington has deterred Taipei from declaring independence. At the same time, suggesting it could defend Taiwan has deterred China from acting more aggressively against the island.However, Biden has taken steps towards abandoning "strategic ambiguity" towards Taiwan. Since taking office, Biden has said he would go to war for Taipei four times.President Vladimir Putin warned last week that he could order a nuclear strike to defend Russian territory. Putin’s threat was Moscow’s most direct warning it could deploy nukes. "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people – this is not a bluff," Putin said.Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev appeared to expand this nuclear umbrella to Ukrainian territories Moscow plans to annex. The Kremlin planned a series of referendums in areas of Ukraine under its control. If the vote goes as expected, those regions will request entrance into Russia, which Moscow will accept.

‘It's a land grab’: U.S. scrambles to respond ahead of Putin's annexation claim - Western allies are rushing to formulate responses to the Kremlin’s pending forced annexation of parts of eastern Ukraine expected to be unveiled Friday, as Vladimir Putin pushes to consolidate dwindling gains in his faltering war. Putin is slated to deliver a speech Friday announcing the annexation of four Russian-occupied regions, just days after his government held widely condemned referendums orchestrated to produce the results the Kremlin sought. In Washington, Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) unveiled legislation Thursday that would cut off military and economic aid to any country that recognizes the “annexed” territories as part of Russia. The legislation would also pressure the Biden administration to swiftly punish Russia, and could be attached to the annual defense policy bill in the coming weeks. “We are dealing with Hurricane Putin, for the lack of a better word,” Graham told reporters. “He’s trying to rewrite the map of Europe. He’s trying to do by force of arms what he can’t do by process.” Added Blumenthal: “It is a land grab. It’s a steal. And it is another craven, brazen tactic by Vladimir Putin to test the West’s support for Ukraine and we are having none of it.” On Wednesday, State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters to expect “additional measures” in the days ahead. In the meantime, it didn’t appear that President Joe Biden would order any change in approach to supporting Ukraine. “This also doesn’t change our thinking on the outlook. We’ve always been prepared for the long haul, and the Russians have as well,” a senior administration official told POLITICO. Some of Biden’s allies on the Hill, though, expressed concern about the impact of Putin’s annexation effort. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said Putin’s move “makes it all the more difficult for the Ukrainians to find a way forward.” “It also should consolidate the condemnation of the world, because everybody knows that at the end of the day, [the referendum is] the biggest farce that has happened,” Menendez added. The move to lay claim to the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine’s south and east was relatively costless for Putin. He played to his domestic base and seemingly added legitimacy to his illegal invasion, regional experts said. Putin knew this week’s sham votes would have little effect on the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they said. The goal was “to have a similar situation to Crimea,” where Russians seized the peninsula after another sham referendum in 2014, said Jeffrey Edmonds, who handled the Russia portfolio in the Obama administration’s National Security Council. “No one agrees with it, but no one is going to do anything about it either. That would give him a revised victory — or enough of one — because he would have hobbled Ukraine.”

US Tightens the Screws on Turkey Over Cooperation with Russia -Two of Turkey’s largest banks are no longer accepting Russia’s Mir payments system. The moves on September 19 come following threats from the US of secondary sanctions.Turkey’s largest private lender IsBank and Denizbank, a Turkish unit of the United Arab Emirates’ NBD, were the banks who suspended services.Visa and Mastercard suspended their Russian operations back in March, which means all transactions initiated with such cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside of the country and any cards issued outside of Russia will no longer work within the country.The European Union has also banned Russian banks from SWIFT, the system that enables financial transactions all around the world. Russia created the Mir payment system in 2014 out of fear that the US and Europe would one day enact these very sanctions.Three state-owned Turkish banks are still processing payments using Mir. The list of other countries that accept Mir include Armenia, Belarus, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, South Korea, Tajikistan, and Vietnam.It does not appear the US has directly threatened any of the other nations to stop using Mir, but making an example of out of Turkey seems to be having its desired effect. Kazakhstan’s largest bank cut Mir on September 21. Vietnam’s BIDV Bank did as well. On September 23 Uzbekistan’s UZCARD system suspended processing of Mir, and some Armenian banks also blocked the Russian cards. US officials expect more banks around the world to follow suit.Russia’s Central Bank said last week that foreign banks were reluctant to join the Mir system out of fears of secondary sanctions. Other countries that are considering adopting Mir include Angola, Egypt, India, Iran, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. The Mir card’s issuing company estimates that more than half of Russia’s population has such a card.

Syria Demands Compensation For Oil Losses In UN Speech - In a rare plea before the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Syria's top diplomat demanded compensation for oil and gas stolen by the United States, as well as its monumental energy losses over the course of the 11-year long war."The war against Syria, ultimately, was an attempt by the West to maintain control over the world," Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad told the assembly on Monday, demanding further that the continuing US military occupation in the oil and gas rich northeast "should end immediately, without conditions."He informed UN leaders that "direct and indirect" oil and gas sector losses over the course of the conflict have reached $107 billion, stressing further that Damascus is demanding compensation."Fighting terrorism does not happen through an illegitimate international coalition that violates Syria’s sovereignty and destroys towns and villages," Mekdad asserted. He said that any 'counterterror' campaign or foreign presence on sovereign Syrian soil must be done in direct coordination with President Bashar al-Assad. While during the Trump administration years the hundreds of American troops stationed in eastern parts of Syria were there to "secure the oil" - as Trump had often repeated, the Biden administration has chosen to stress a continued counter-terrorism mission. And yet, US forces and their Kurdish SDF proxies continue to occupy the largest and most important oil and gas fields in the region. Russia too has long called for the immediate exit of American forces, and has of late appeared to step up its air campaign against anti-government jihadist elements in Idlib, which has put Turkey on edge. Pro-Iranian militias have reportedly launched sporadic attacks on US bases, meanwhile.Ironically, just last week in President Joe Biden's address to the UNGA, he declared "you cannot seize another country’s territory by force. The only country doing that is Russia."

VP Harris hails US alliance with 'North Korea' in speech gaffe — Vice President Kamala Harris mistakenly touted the U.S. "alliance with the Republic of North Korea" in remarks Thursday from Korea's Demilitarized Zone that sought to reaffirm America's commitment to the security of its Asian allies. "The United States shares a very important relationship, which is an alliance with the Republic of North Korea," Harris said, intending to refer to South Korea as she kicked off remarks after touring the DMZ. "It is an alliance that is strong and enduring." Although the vice president did not correct herself, she went on to hail the U.S.'s "ironclad" commitment to the defense of South Korea amid threats posed by North Korea. Harris said she told South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeo in a meeting Thursday that "we are aligned on this issue.""Our shared goal – the United States and the Republic of Korea – is a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," Harris said. Harris’ gaffe came one day after President Joe Biden made a slip-up as well when he asked in a speech whether late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., was in attendance. Walorski died in a car wreck in August.

 ‘Reason to worry’: Italy's Meloni holds a mirror to Trump's GOP - U.S. conservatives are rallying behind Italy’s newly elected far-right prime minister — praise that highlights the Trumpification of GOP foreign policy doctrines and the fragility of the Western coalition against Russia’s war in Ukraine.Giorgia Meloni’s deep ties to the American right are unusual for a foreign leader: She counts Steve Bannon as an ally and has spoken twice at U.S. conservatives’ premier annual gathering. Statements of support for Meloni’s victory have come almost exclusively from U.S. Republicans, while as of Wednesday President Joe Biden had yet to offer the far-right firebrand his congratulations. Embracing Meloni, who hasn’t yet officially assumed the role, could be a risky play for Republicans. Her party, Brothers of Italy, espouses staunchly anti-immigration policies with a rallying cry against “globalists,” and its previous iteration has roots in neo-fascism. Meloni’s government is shaping up as Italy’s most far-right in the history of the republic formed after the demise of Benito Mussolini, the fascist dictator she once praised.As Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy opens rifts among U.S. conservatives over continued aid to Ukraine, with the former president signaling a desire to stop funding Kyiv, the GOP boost for Meloni runs the risk of emboldening the party’s MAGA wing against more establishment voices who want to continue aiding Ukraine. Some of Meloni’s coalition partners have allied with Vladimir Putin in the past and, more recently, refused to condemn his brutal invasion.But if GOP lawmakers are nervous about allying with a future prime minister who has said that immigration “deprives nations and people of their identity” — while opposing new mosques in Italy — they’re not showing it.“Global elites are crying in their granola because yet another conservative populist was elected,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who praised Meloni’s “spectacular” victory speech. “And across the globe, we see battles between the socialist left — the arrogant elites who want to control people’s lives — and the populist uprising pressing back against it.”Cruz then illustrated the tricky line that pro-Meloni conservatives must walk by underscoring the importance of Western unity on cutting off Russian energy sources. With winter fast approaching and fuel prices skyrocketing across Europe, keeping Italy and other nations on board with that may not be easy.Meloni, 45, has sought to moderate her views recently, and this week she tweeted support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Yet as Europe teeters on the brink of a recession stemming at least partly from energy sanctions imposed on Russia, there are fears within the Biden administration and elsewhere that Meloni could slash what’s been a significant Italian contribution to Ukraine’s defense.Such a move could have a domino effect and cause key Western allies to push for a negotiated end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Trump backed that position Wednesday, one Ukraine’s leaders vehemently oppose because it would likely require giving up large swaths of their territory to Putin.

How the rail unions plan to ram through their sellout contracts - The White House-brokered deal reached two weeks ago to avert a national rail strike has no support among the workers. The deal, patterned after the August report of Biden’s Presidential Emergency Board with only a few minor tweaks, leaves intact sub-inflation pay increases and includes only three additional unpaid days off for routine medical procedures which must be scheduled a month in advance. It also keeps in place the hated attendance policies such as Hi Viz and Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR). As the full language of the contracts become public, workers are discovering new concessions all the time. The tentative agreement reached with the SMART-TD union includes a new Automated Bid System, which threatens to reduce yard workers’ schedules to the constantly on-call status just like engineers and conductors. “This tentative agreement is worse [than the PEB],” one experienced yard worker told the World Socialist Web Site. “[This is] a way of keeping us working and it’s getting rid of our time off, which the carriers have been going after for years. This Automatic Bid System is a way of doing that.” An article appearing this weekend in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram declared, “U.S. rail agreement was presented as a done deal. Now that they’ve seen it, workers disagree.” That article cited the national meeting of hundreds of railroaders sponsored by the Railroad Workers Rank-and-File Committee held the night before the deal was struck. The article also compares the situation on the railroads with the John Deere strike last year, where workers rejected several consecutive sellout deals from the United Auto Workers. The unions would have no hope of passing the deal in a free, democratically-run vote. This is why they have no intention of conducting one. Instead, they are seeking to ram through the deal using a multi-pronged approach, including lies, threats and intimidation, and lengthy delays in order to bleed off workers’ momentum. This underscores the need for the rank-and-file to organize themselves to take control over the entire process, exercising oversight over both the balloting and the entire voting procedure. Here are a few of the strategies that the unions are likely preparing to deploy:

Hundreds of thousands of people in Puerto Rico still have no electricity : NPR – 4 minute podcast - Nine days after Hurricane Fiona, hundreds of thousands in Puerto Rico still lack electricity. Mayors are calling on retired electrical workers, despite threats legal from the private electric utility.

Biden faces pressure to waive restriction as ship idles off Puerto Rico coast - President Biden faced growing pressure Monday to grant a federal waiver and allow a BP ship loaded with diesel fuel to access a port in Puerto Rico, where hundreds of thousands of hurricane-ravaged Americans remain without power. Because the ship is not U.S.-owned, it has been idling off the island’s coast, awaiting a decision by the Biden administration on waiving the Jones Act, a century-old law backed by labor unions and key to the president’s “Made in America” agenda. Despite mounting calls from the governor of Puerto Rico, local activists and members of Congress, the Biden administration did not grant the waiver required for the ship to dock Monday, raising concerns that the ship could soon leave the power-starved island behind. Hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico as a Category 1 storm. Flooding still wrought havoc. White House officials said the Biden administration did not have the authority to simply suspend the Jones Act in Puerto Rico, citing a law passed by Congress in 2020 to crack down on broad waivers. Local officials said Biden had the power to issue one-time waivers that could still provide much-needed, temporary relief, but an administration official said that any exception would require careful consideration to ensure it is legal. The debate highlights the challenge Biden faces as he balances competing appeals from two constituencies he has pledged to champion as president: labor unions and the residents of Puerto Rico. As the labor movement defends the federal shipping restrictions and denounces calls to give foreign shippers special access to Puerto Rico, local officials and activists have long decried regulations that increase costs and make it more difficult to deliver essential goods to the island. The Jones Act, part of a World War I-era shipping law, requires that goods shipped between points in the United States be carried on U.S.-flagged ships built and mostly owned by Americans. Under the act, which was intended to support a U.S. shipping industry for national defense purposes, territories such as Puerto Rico and far-flung states such as Hawaii can face fewer options for shipping goods.

DHS waives Jones Act for Puerto Rico to supply fuel after hurricane - The Biden administration moved Wednesday to allow a non-U.S. flagged ship to transport fuel to Puerto Rico, following pressure to waive a rule in the face of a diesel shortage after Hurricane Fiona. The decision to make came in “response to urgent and immediate needs of the Puerto Rican people in the aftermath of Hurricane Fiona ... to ensure that the people of Puerto Rican have sufficient diesel to run generators needed for electricity and the functioning critical facilities,” Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement Wednesday. Mayorkas called the limited waiver for a BP vessel “temporary and targeted.” The Department of Homeland Security’s choice to suspend the Jones Act — which typically allows only U.S.-flagged ships to transport maritime cargo between U.S. ports — will allow additional diesel into Puerto Rico, days after the territory was hit by Hurricane Fiona. Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi thanked the Biden administration for the waiver in a tweet Wednesday. He was among several legislators, activists and others who previously pressured the administration to waive the Jones Act. The governor requested a waiver Monday for a private supplier waiting to unload fuel in Puerto Rico; a spokesman for BP confirmed the company submitted a waiver request for a vessel carrying diesel Sept. 20. “We are grateful to the Biden administration for taking this action and will deliver the barrels into Puerto Rico as quickly and safely as possible,” a BP spokesman said Wednesday. Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), who sent a letter this week requesting the waiver with seven other legislators, said she welcomed Mayorkas’ decision. “This is a life and death situation,” Velázquez said in a tweet, adding: “I encourage the Administration to take further steps to ensure that the people of Puerto Rico can fully recover from Hurricane Fiona.” The calls to waive the act following the hurricane came from both sides of the aisle: GOP Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Mike Lee (Utah) previously voiced their support for such a waiver.

Watchdog report details distress of migrant children housed at Fort Bliss - Unaccompanied migrant children held at a makeshift shelter in a Texas military base last year spent weeks without hearing any updates on their cases, causing distress, anxiety and panic attacks, according to an internal watchdog report released Tuesday. A rapid staffing ramp-up at Fort Bliss resulted in inexperienced and overworked case managers responsible for hundreds of children, many of whom ended up falling through the cracks, according to the report from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Inspector General. The report found that staffing shortages, high rates of turnover and the large number of children onsite led to overloaded case managers during the spring of 2021, which contributed to delays in providing children with updates. “This created a situation where some children waited weeks between updates from their case managers, which staff at the facility reported as causing many children to experience distress, anxiety, and in some cases, panic attacks,” the Office of Inspector General said in its 58-page report. For instance, a case management team member told investigators that, near the end of May, she became aware of a list of 700 children who had not been seen by a case manager for about two months. “This lack of communication contributed to what another interviewee called ‘a pervasive sense of despair’ among children at the facility,” the report found. A large influx of unaccompanied children crossing the border in the spring of 2021 forced the Biden administration to open more than a dozen emergency intake facilities: unlicensed, temporary facilities designed to meet basic standards of care for children on a short-term basis. HHS launched the investigation in August 2021 after hearing numerous complaints about inadequate case management from members of Congress, child welfare advocates and staff at other HHS-run facilities. The investigation relied on interviews with 66 Fort Bliss workers, a review of documents and a visit to the facility. According to the report, children were afraid of being forgotten by case management staff, which led to uncertainty about when they would be released from the facility and reunited with their family or other sponsors. A Fort Bliss worker told investigators that in one extreme case of a child in distress, a young girl began to hit and cut herself in front of a group of children after learning that her mother had not yet been contacted by a case manager as part of the sponsor screening process. The girl was restrained by security guards and other staff and transferred to a psychiatric facility. While unaccompanied children are in government custody, the U.S. is supposed to locate family members or sponsors who can care for them while they resolve their immigration status. Poor case management could result in extended stays in facilities meant to be temporary The inexperienced case managers also meant children were released into potentially unsafe situations The Office of the Inspector General found that the HHS Office of Refugee Resettlement, which operated the facility, did not provide inexperienced case management staff with adequate training to help ensure children’s safe and timely release to sponsors. “In some cases, release recommendations made by these inexperienced case managers reportedly failed to consider children’s significant history of abuse and neglect or whether sex offenders resided in the potential sponsor’s household,” the report found. In addition, the report said some staff at Fort Bliss, as well as at the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) headquarters, faced potential retaliation after raising issues about case management and child safety, which caused hesitation among other staff who wished to share concerns.

 Lawsuits and investigations launched over Florida migrant flights - In the week since Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ordered two state-chartered airplanes to fly to Texas, pick up migrant asylum-seekers there, and take them to Martha’s Vineyard, an island off the Massachusetts mainland, there has been mounting evidence of the illegal and unconstitutional character of this political provocation. Equally important, there are indications that the Biden administration and Democratic state legislators in Florida collaborated in what they are now—belatedly—denouncing as a political stunt by DeSantis. The Florida governor is a candidate for reelection on November 8, and a prospective candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, and tipped off his big financial contributors about the impending operation at a fundraiser held a few days before the flight. Lawyers for the migrants filed the first of what are expected to be multiple civil suits against DeSantis and the state of Florida on Tuesday. The suit charges that the asylum-seekers had been duped by false promises of jobs and housing, and told they were going to Boston, not a vacation island with no jobs, no housing and no access to the immigration courts where they had filed their claims for refugee status. Lawyers for Civil Rights filed the federal class action lawsuit against DeSantis, the state treasurer who disbursed the funds for the flight, “and other unidentified accomplices [who] designed and executed a premeditated, fraudulent, and illegal scheme centered on exploiting this vulnerability for the sole purpose of advancing their own personal, financial and political interests.” The suit also charges that the migrant flights were unlawful because they “impermissibly interfered” with the detention and transportation of immigrants. The power “to admit, exclude, remove, or allow to remain in the United States” is reserved to the federal government under the US Constitution. Under federal law, these powers are exercised by the Department of Homeland Security through agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), not by any state governor. Some legal experts pointed out that from the standpoint of federal law, DeSantis is no different from a “human trafficker” or “coyote,” much demonized by the right-wing and fascist media for enabling migrants to cross the US-Mexico border and then travel to their chosen destinations within the United States. According to the suit, the supposed “consent form” signed by the migrants “was not completely translated to Spanish: an entire paragraph about liability and transport was not translated at all, and language specifying that the journey would take place from Texas to Massachusetts was not translated at all either.” Rachel Self, a representative of Lawyers for Civil Rights, told a press briefing that there were indications that ICE agents had worked with DeSantis operatives in facilitating the migrant flights. She said that ICE agents had processed the migrants and “listed falsified addresses on the migrants’ paperwork,” before they boarded the flights. It appeared that this included deliberate attempts to disrupt the migrants’ claims to asylum, giving phony addresses like a homeless shelter in Tacoma, Washington, thus requiring them to pursue their asylum cases at an immigration court in the Pacific Northwest, before putting them on a flight that took them to the opposite end of the country.

The CDC moves to end universal masking in health care settings - As part of its systematic efforts to bring to an end all meaningful mitigation measures against COVID-19, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) quietly released new infection control guidance for health care settings on Friday evening with hardly a mention of it in the media. The taciturn announcements on late Friday nights have become standard for the CDC’s disclosure of unpopular and unscientific policies. CBS Newsbroke the story on Friday evening, reporting, “Outside of communities seeing ‘high’ levels of COVID-19 transmission, the CDC has ended a blanket plea for Americans in hospitals and nursing homes to wear masks indoors. The change, one of many published Friday evening to the agency’s guidance for COVID-19 infection control for healthcare workers, marks one of the final sets of revisions in a sweeping effort launched in August to overhaul the CDC’s recommendations for the virus.” The guidelines now allow health care settings located in regions with “substantial” or lower COVID-19 community transmission to “choose not to require universal source control,” meaning the use of N95 respirators or even well-fitting masks. Additionally, the guidelines are considered “recommendations.” Outside of social media networks, there has been virtually no mention of these new directives. Neither CDC Director Rochelle Walensky nor CDC Senior Scientist Greta Massetti, who introduced last month’s sweeping changes to the public health agency’s COVID-19 guidance, has given any statements over the weekend. The bourgeois press has been silent on the issue, which it would be fair to assume they considered non-newsworthy and irrelevant. According to an anonymous source, approximately two weeks ago, during a medical department meeting at a US hospital, the chair informed the staff that the CDC would be introducing new directives to address ending guidance for universal masking in health care settings. While the CDC remained publicly silent on the matter, it informed health care systems of the forthcoming changes. The lifting of masking recommendations in hospitals took place the same week that President Biden declared, “The pandemic is over. … Everyone seems to be in pretty good shape.” This succinctly expressed the policies being adopted by the country’s foremost public health agency, which has become an instrument of the state and no longer functions to protect the population from infectious diseases. Friday’s announcement prompted a flood of opposition among scientists, workers and anti-COVID activists on social media, with many denouncing the CDC for its repeated malign efforts to dismiss the threat posed by the coronavirus and normalize death and debilitation of the population by these infections. Professor of Evolutionary Biology T. Ryan Gregory tweeted, “I don’t know who SARS-CoV-2 has hired as a lobbyist, but they’re fantastic!” Assistant Professor of Dermatology Dr. Lisa Iannattone wrote, “Re-upping this thread in response to the CDC’s decision to no longer require universal masking in hospitals. The medical field kept exposing patients to contaminated hands for decades after Semmelweis’ discovery [the man who discovered that health care workers’ dirty hands were causing fever and death in inpatients]. How long will we pretend exposing them to contaminated air is ok?”

How the CDC’s communication failures during Covid tarnished the agency - In the early days of Covid, staffers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sought to give Americans guidance about maintaining some semblance of normalcy during a once-in-a-century pandemic that had upended daily life. One recommendation? Play basketball with your friends — online. There was one big problem: The nation’s top public health professionals failed to consult their very colleagues who’d be responsible for communicating this advice to the public. Communication failures like that, along with much more consequential errors, would continue throughout the pandemic, deeply tarnishing the agency — long considered the gold standard of public health institutions. The blunders have left career scientists and other longtime employees worried that the wounds can’t be healed. All culminated in what would become a series of unsettlingly defining moments for CDC employees who say the agency was unable to move fast enough for the public with science solid enough to meet their own expectations. This account is based on interviews with seven CDC employees who spoke to NBC News about their experiences during the pandemic on the condition of anonymity to discuss matters freely. All but one have been with the agency for at least 14 years, and three are nearing or have exceeded their third decade of service. While some employees say they are optimistic that the agency can improve its public health responses, blunders during the Covid response still haunt those who have dedicated their lives to public health. “When people ask, ‘where do you work?’ I used to say that ‘I work at CDC’ with pride,” a staffer said. “Now I just tell people that I work in public health and not exactly where I work, because it’s just going to become a discussion of our failures.” “People’s lives were changing based on our decisions,” said a senior scientist within the agency. “The fear, the anxiety, the stress …” the person said, trailing off. “If only we could have stopped time.” “There are going to be headlines that praise you and headlines that slam you,” the CDC’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky told NBC News. “It was going to be hard for the agency however it shook out. I can tell you numerous times where I’ve had these big decisions... many nights I’ve lost sleep.”

Pfizer CEO Has COVID For Second Time In Two Months - Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has tested positive for Covid-19 for the second time in two months. The 60-year-old contracted the disease in August, for which he took the company's antiviral treatment, Paxlovid. He's also received four doses of his company's vaccine, which was developed with German partner BioNTech - but claims he hasn't gotten the new Omicron-tweaked bivalent booster due to his August infection."I've not had the new bivalent booster yet, as I was following CDC guidelines to wait three months since my previous COVID case which was back in mid-August," he said, while claiming to be "symptom free." I have tested positive for COVID. I’m feeling well & symptom free. I’ve not had the new bivalent booster yet, as I was following CDC guidelines to wait 3 months since my previous COVID case which was back in mid-August. While we’ve made great progress, the virus is still with us.The new, so-called bivalent shot - which wasn't tested on humans before its release - is supposed to target the BA.5 and BA.4 Omicron subvariants, which make up roughly 86% of currently circulating variants in the United States.The FDA authorized Pfizer and Moderna's updated booster shots in August, of which more than 25 million doses have been shipped.Bourla's second infection in two months raised more than a few eyebrows.

 Southern states to get most relief from Biden's student debt plan, N.Y. Fed says -President Biden's loan forgiveness plan will wipe out about one-third of student debt owed to the federal government, with lower-income borrowers and those living in Southern states getting the biggest boost, according to analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The proposal would eliminate federally held balances for about 40% of borrowers, canceling $441 billion in loans, the New York Fed said in a blog post Tuesday. Borrowers living in neighborhoods with median household incomes below $83,000 — which is some 65% of the total — would receive almost three-quarters of the debt forgiveness, it said. The Fed study also found that residents of Washington, D.C., will get the biggest average amount of debt forgiven per eligible borrower. The six states with the largest amount are in the South: North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi and West Virginia. Biden's plan offers forgiveness of up to $10,000 per borrower, with a household income threshold of $125,000 for eligibility. That cap excludes roughly one in 20 borrowers, the New York Fed said. Additional forgiveness is available for recipients of the Pell grants that help students with greater financial needs. Critics of the plan, including Biden's Republican opponents, say that debt relief for Americans who went to college — and are therefore likely to earn more anyway — is a policy that favors the wealthy. Debt forgiveness will help struggling borrowers to boost their credit scores and catch up with other liabilities, like credit card and auto loans, according to the New York Fed. "The reduction in student debt prevalence and balances will create a substantial financial improvement for borrowers, particularly among those with lower incomes," it said.

Biden's student debt relief to cost $400 billion over decade, CBO says - President Biden's decision to forgive some federal student debt will cost at least $400 billion over 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office estimated, which would wipe out the $238 billion in deficit reduction from his tax and climate plan. Biden in August announced student debt relief of $10,000 per borrower, subject to income caps of $125,000 per individual and $250,000 per household. An additional $10,000 can be forgiven for Pell Grant recipients. The CBO estimates these moves will cancel $430 billion in total debt, but that some of this is owed by individuals in income-driven repayment plans and would be canceled anyway. The nonpartisan budget agency said Biden's suspension of student debt payments through the end of the year could cost an additional $20 billion. It did not account for changes Biden made to income-driven repayment plans. The watchdog Committee for an Responsible Federal Budget pegs the cost of those changes at an additional $120 billion. However, the CBO says its estimate is "highly uncertain" because of assumptions it makes about the level of repayments that would have occurred absent the debt relief depend on future economic conditions. For comparison, the tax and climate legislation known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed earlier in August, was scored as reducing deficits over 10 years by $58 billion, with an additional reduction of $180 billion factored in due to anticipated new revenue from more tax audits. The Biden student loan program is one of the costliest initiatives of the president's term, based on the CBO analysis, and Congress had no direct say in the matter. The $1,400 stimulus checks from the American Rescue Plan passed by Congress cost just a little more than student debt, $410.6 billion, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. "This might be the most costly executive action in history," CRFB President Maya MacGuineas said in a statement. "It's unacceptable that the President would implement it without offsets and without Congressional approval." The report was requested by Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina and Rep. Virginia Foxx, two North Carolina Republicans. GOP lawmakers have criticized Biden's debt forgiveness as unfair to students who had paid off their loans and to taxpayers who never went to college.

$400 Billion!? Biden Student Loan Forgiveness To Cost Far More Than Initial Estimate -President Joe Biden's student loan forgiveness plan will cost at least $400 billion over three decades, blowing away initial estimates of $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated. The plan, a handout for the middle and upper classes (and will only raise GDP by 0.1%), will provide debt relief of $10,000 per borrower, subject to income caps of $125,000 per individual or $250,000 per household - while Pell Grant recipients will receive an additional $10,000 of forgiveness, Bloomberg reports.According to the CBO, the moves will cancel $430 billion in overall debt - while Biden's suspension of student loan payments through the end of 2022 could cost an additional $20 billion - notwithstanding changes Biden's administration has made to income-driven repayment plans, which the Committee for an Responsible Federal Budget pegged at an additional $120 billion.Around 40 million Americans could receive some level of student loan relief under the plan - with half potentially having their entire debt canceled, according to the White House.Roughly 8 million borrowers, whose income is already on file at the department, will have their loans automatically forgiven without having to apply, according to the Education Department. Everyone else will have to apply in early October, when the agency expects to release the form.GOP lawmakers and state attorneys general have said they are exploring the possibility of a lawsuit to overturn the policy before it goes into effect. One conservative group, the Job Creators Network, has said it plans to sue the administration once the Education Department guidance is released. -WaPoTo put the plan in context, the so-called "Inflation Reduction Act" which passed in August is estimated to reduce deficits over 10 years by $58 billion, with an additional $180 billion reduction factored in due to anticipated new tax revenue from more audits."This might be the most costly executive action in history," said CRFB President Maya MacGuineas in a statement, adding "It’s unacceptable that the President would implement it without offsets and without Congressional approval."The CBO report was requested by Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) amid criticism from GOP lawmakers, who say the debt forgiveness plan is unfair to students who have paid off their loans, and taxpayers who never attended college.

GOP-led states sue over Biden's student loan forgiveness plan - The Biden administration was accused in a lawsuit by six Republican-led states of overstepping its authority with a plan to forgive federal student loans. Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina asked a federal judge on Thursday to immediately block the program before the administration starts the process of canceling loan balances in the coming weeks. "In addition to being economically unwise and downright unfair, the Biden Administration's Mass Debt Cancellation is yet another example in a long line of unlawful regulatory actions," the six states said in a lawsuit filed in Missouri federal court. President Biden's plan is based on a 2003 federal law authorizing student-debt forgiveness for individuals serving in the military during a war or living somewhere designated as a "disaster area" by a governmental entity, according to the complaint. The states argue the White House plan isn't "remotely tailored to address the effects of the pandemic on federal student loan borrowers," as required by the law. They also cited Biden's claim in a recent "60 Minutes" interview that "the pandemic is over." "The Biden Administration's executive action to cancel student loan debt was not only unconstitutional, it will unfairly burden working class families and those who chose not to take out loans or have paid them off with even more economic woes," said Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt in a statement. "The Biden Administration's unlawful edict will only worsen inflation at a time when many Americans are struggling to get by." Biden unveiled the package of student-debt relief in August, which includes $10,000 in relief per borrower, subject to income caps of $125,000 per individual and $250,000 per household. Pell grant recipients can be forgiven an additional $10,000. Earlier this week, a California-based libertarian group filed a separate challenge to the plan in Indiana, arguing that the proposal will harm borrowers in states with laws requiring tax payments on canceled loans.

Biden administration scales back student debt relief for millions amid legal concerns - The Biden administration is scaling back its debt relief program for millions of Americans over concerns about legal challenges from the student loan industry as well as a new lawsuit from Republican-led states. In a reversal, the Education Department said on Thursday it would no longer allow borrowers who have federal student loans that are owned by private entities to qualify for the relief program. The administration had previously said those borrowers would have a path to receive up to $10,000 or $20,000 of loan forgiveness. The policy change comes as the Biden administration this week faces its first major legal challenges to the loan forgiveness program, which Republicans have railed against as an illegal use of executive power that is too costly for taxpayers. On Thursday, a group of six GOP attorneys general sued to block loan forgiveness. The states of Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Carolina asked a federal judge to strike down the debt cancellation program, arguing that it’s illegal and unconstitutional. The student loans that are guaranteed by the federal government but held by private entities account for a relatively small, and shrinking, subset of all outstanding federal student debt. They comprise just several million of the roughly 45 million Americans with federal student loans. But there are significant business interests that depend on the federally guaranteed loan program — a wide range of private lenders, banks, guaranty agencies, loan servicers and investors. That industry is widely seen, both inside and outside the administration, as presenting the greatest legal risk to the debt relief program. Many of those companies face economic losses when they lose borrowers who convert their federally guaranteed loans into new loans that are made directly by the Education Department through a process known as consolidation. Administration officials said when they announced the debt relief program in August that borrowers with federally guaranteed loans should consolidate their loans in order to receive loan forgiveness. The Education Department said Thursday that borrowers who already took those steps to receive loan forgiveness would still receive it. The agency said it would still provide debt relief to borrowers “who have applied to consolidate into the Direct Loan program prior to Sept. 29, 2022.” But the department said that path is no longer available to borrowers after the new guidance. “Our goal is to provide relief to as many eligible borrowers as quickly and easily as possible, and this will allow us to achieve that goal while we continue to explore additional legally available options to provide relief to borrowers with privately owned FFEL loans and Perkins loans, including whether FFEL borrowers could receive one-time debt relief without needing to consolidate,” an Education Department spokesperson said in a statement. The privately held federal student loans featured prominently in the new lawsuit filed by GOP attorneys general on Thursday. The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Missouri, is based, in part, on the theory that the states are harmed directly by the Biden administration taking steps to forgive federal student loans held by private entities.

Ted Cruz's School Security Bills - Senate Democrats back a while ago blocked two bills from Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas). The bills would be using COVID-19 stimulus funds to bolster school security and mental health resources for students. Sounds like a much -needed idea given past circumstances. Cruz’s proposals:

• The Securing Our Schools Act, which was cosponsored by Sen. John Barrasso (R., Wyo.), would double the number of police officers in public, charter, and private schools, strengthen physical security measures like alarms and locks, and put thousands of mental health professionals in public schools.
• The Protect Our Children’s Schools Act ​​would fund that effort, appropriating billions of dollars in unspent education-related COVID funding.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D., Conn.) objected on the Senate floor to both, killing the legislation after Cruz sought unanimous consent.It was one of those “look out Senator Murphy, it’s a trap” moments which will allow Republicans to babble on about how Democrats blocked bills to protect students in school. Murphy was correct and these were not clean bills. Strings attached which Ted Cruz never admits too.In the clip you will hear Senator Chris Murphy objecting to the Bill requiring unanimous support before discussions and passed. Then we hear Senator Ted Cruz get up and berate Democrats for about 5 minutes. Cruz puts on a great show of injury by Murphy’s objections and is weeping crocodile tears over it.But, but, why??? Why did Senator Chris Murphy object?The rest of the story . . .“The Cruz bills would have allotted $25 billion to place security officers and mental health workers in schools and tripled FEMA’s grant program for school security. Cruz’s bills would also bar schools supposedly teaching critical race theory or advocating for abortion from the funds.” These were not clean bills. Cruz’s attempt was meant to block the teaching of history and provide information on abortion.

Opinion | The Sad, Familiar Demise of the Expanded Child Tax Credit - Almost from the moment the Child Tax Credit benefits went into effect in July 2021, they began to demonstrate the validity of an idea that had been around for decades: that direct cash grants to families in financial distress would be life-changing, and often far more effective than the tangled mass of government programs burdened by bureaucratic demands and limits. The policy’s positive impact on everything from food insecurity to health care was extraordinary. But thanks to the razor-thin Democratic hold on the Senate, the opposition of a single senator — yes, that one — forced an end to the program last December, and a rapid increase in child poverty. And while there is an effort to revive the program during a lame-duck session — which would require significant Republican support — Democrats, for the most part, aren’t talking about it on the campaign trail or nearly anywhere.And therein lies an unhappy tale about politics and the social safety net, and how hard it is to strengthen it.When the American Rescue Plan was enacted in 2021, it took the Child Tax Credit and expanded its size and eligibility, made it “fully refundable” (meaning it would even go to families that did not owe taxes to the government), and began delivering its benefits as monthly payments delivered directly into bank accounts. For families whose struggles had been exacerbated by the pandemic, it proved to be a literal life saver, and — in a significant departure from traditional welfare programs — left it to the parents to decide where that money was most needed. For some, it went to food; for some, getting their kids to the dentist; for some, paying for child care.Here’s how the New Republic summarized its impact:“The result was vastly beneficial: In the six months of the expanded CTC, the overall rate of child poverty in the United States was slashed by 30 percent; food insufficiency was cut by 26 percent. An August report from the Niskanen Center predicted that the CTC would ‘boost consumer spending by $27 billion, generate $1.9 billion in revenues from state and local sales taxes, and support over 500,000 full time jobs at the median wage.’”The 2021 law only authorized a year of payments, partly because it was expensive and partly because Democrats believed the program would be so popular among voters that politicians wouldn’t let it expire. Some on the left saw it as evidence that Joe Biden would indeed be an FDR-like president, leaving a transformed welfare state behind him.But one key political player saw the expanded Child Tax Credit in very different terms. West Virginia Sen Joe Manchin, who had repeatedly upended the Democrats’ ambitious social spending plans and whose support was crucial to whatever legislative success his party would achieve, was an adamant opponent of the credit. Without work requirements, he argued, people would simply opt out of the work force. Ultimately, given that success or failure rode on Manchin’s vote, party leaders didn’t include the program in their last-ditch effort to salvage Biden’s agenda, the Inflation Reduction Act.The impact of the end of the CTC, like its enactment, was swift and dramatic. By one count, some 4 million children returned to poverty. And according to one prominent Democratic pollster, Stan Greenberg, its expiration also may hurt Democratic prospects in the fall campaign.

Where's Jackie?' Biden seeks lawmaker Walorski who died in August (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden publicly sought out Jackie Walorski, an Indiana Congresswoman who died in a car accident in August, during a conference on hunger on Wednesday, seeming to forget that she had passed away. Biden thanked other conference organizers, then asked: "Jackie are you here? Where's Jackie?" Walorski, a Republican, was one of four Congressional co-sponsors of the bill to fund the conference. She was killed with two staffers in early August. Biden moved past the issue without any correction. After Walorski's death, the White House issued a statement from Biden that said he and his wife Jill were "shocked and saddened" by her sudden accident. "Truly an awful and disgraceful blunder," Representative Vicky Hartzler, a Missouri Republican, tweeted in reference to the mistake. Biden was “acknowledging her incredible work,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said when asked about the incident later, adding that Biden had already planned to welcome the congresswoman's family to the White House for a bill signing on Friday. “She was on top of mind,” Jean-Pierre said.

In a big Jan. 6 case, Oath Keepers go on trial for seditious conspiracy - In the highest-profile prosecution so far stemming from the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, the founder of the Oath Keepers and four others individuals linked to the far-right, anti-government group go on trial Tuesday on seditious conspiracy and other charges stemming from the deadly assault.Stewart Rhodes, who established the Oath Keepers in 2009, and his co-defendants are accused of spending months recruiting, training and conspiring to use force to prevent the transfer of presidential power to Joe Biden. Prosecutors allege the plot included stashing guns just outside Washington, D.C., for a quick reaction force to rush into the city on Jan. 6, if necessary.The trial, which is expected to last around five weeks, opens Tuesday with jury selection at the federal courthouse just down the street from the Capitol. The stakes are high for both sides. For the defendants, a conviction for seditious conspiracyalone carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.For the government, a failure to win convictions in the most consequential Jan. 6 prosecution so far — particularly on the central charge — would undermine the Justice Department's assertion that the Capitol attack posed a uniquely dangerous threat to American democracy.Rhodes and 10 members or associates of the Oath Keepers are charged with seditious conspiracy, obstruction of an official proceeding and other crimes in connection with the Capitol attack. Two of the 11 people indicted in the case — Brian Ulrich and Joshua James —have pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy and are cooperating with the government. The remaining nine defendants are to face trial in two groups.The first group is headlined by Rhodes, a former Army paratrooper and Yale Law School graduate who was later disbarred. He's joined by Kelly Meggs, Kenneth Harrelson, Jessica Watkins — all of whom have been in custody since their arrest — as well as Thomas Caldwell.The second group of defendants is scheduled to stand trial in November. Five leaders of the Proud Boys extremist group separately also have been charged with seditious conspiracy.

Historic trial for Oath Keepers leader and his top lieutenants over January 6 set to begin — The Justice Department this week will argue at trial for the first time in over a decade that a group of Americans plotted to violently oppose the US government. The historic trial of Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes and four of his top lieutenants will provide a deep dive into a far right-wing militia and extremist movement as they allegedly planned to stop Joe Biden from becoming president in January 2021 by any means necessary. Federal prosecutors intend to prove that the plan included a reconnaissance trip to Washington, DC, staging an armed “quick reaction force” at a hotel across the Potomac River, using a military formation to breach the US Capitol, and, for some defendants, searching for lawmakers inside. The landmark indictment is the most aggressive and politically fraught case that prosecutors have brought against a group of alleged rioters to date and marked a dramatic change in the department’s approach to prosecuting January 6 defendants. This is the first of three sedition trials scheduled to take place this year. The case also comes with hefty political ramifications. When it was unsealed in January 2022, the indictment sparked an outcry from some Trump supporters and figureheads on the right who claimed that the charges were trumped up or politically motivated, and the Justice Department as a whole has come under increased fire from some on the political right for its investigations into those aligned with the former president. The trial against the Oath Keepers will begin on Tuesday with jury selection in DC federal court. All five defendants have pleaded not guilty to the indictment and face a maximum sentence of 20 years in a federal prison. The defendants Stewart Rhodes, 57, is a former Army paratrooper and graduate of Yale Law School. Rhodes, who is from Texas, founded the Oath Keepers in 2009 and has led the militia ever since. Kelly Meggs, 53, is the leader of the Florida chapter of the Oath Keepers. Meggs went by the moniker “Gator 1.” Jessica Watkins, 40, is an Army veteran and bar owner from Ohio. Watkins, who served in Afghanistan, was a “commander” of her own Ohio based militia using the moniker “Cap.” Kenneth Harrelson, 41, is a former Army sergeant and Oath Keepers leader from Florida. Harrelson used the moniker “Gator 6.” Thomas Caldwell, 68, of Virginia, is a former lieutenant commander in the Navy and FBI employee. Caldwell went by the monikers “CAG” and “Spy.” He has denied he is a member of the Oath Keepers.To make their case, prosecutors will lay out an extensive retelling of January 6 and the months leading up to the riot. The story will rely on more than 40 witnesses, prosecutors said in court, including FBI agents, Capitol Police officers, journalists and confidential human sources. They also plan to use recordings from the group of planning meetings leading up to January 6 and walkie-talkie communications during the siege. Taken together, prosecutors believe the evidence will lay out a sophisticated plan by the Oath Keepers that began to take shape just days after the 2020 election.

Kyle Young sentenced for Jan. 6 attack on D.C. officer Michael Fanone - ‘I hope you suffer’: Ex-D.C. officer confronts Jan. 6 attacker in court A member of the mob that launched a series of violent attacks on police — including D.C. officer Michael Fanone — in a tunnel under the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, apologized Tuesday as a judge sentenced him to seven years and two months in prison. Kyle Young, 38, is the first rioter to be sentenced for the group attack on Fanone, who was dragged into the mob, beaten and electrocuted until he suffered a heart attack and lost consciousness. “You were a one-man wrecking ball that day,” Judge Amy Berman Jackson said. “You were the violence.” Fanone resigned from the D.C. police late last year, saying fellow officers turned on him for speaking so publicly about the Capitol attack and former president Donald Trump’s role in it. In court Tuesday, Fanone directly confronted his attacker, telling Young, “I hope you suffer.” “The assault on me by Mr. Young cost me my career,” Fanone said. “It cost me my faith in law enforcement and many of the institutions I dedicated two decades of my life to serving.” Young pleaded guilty in May to being in the group that attacked Fanone. Documents filed with his plea agreement offer this account: Young and his 16-year-old son joined the tunnel battle just before 3 p.m., and Young handed a stun gun to another rioter and showed him how to use it. When Fanone was pulled from the police line, Young and his son pushed through the crowd toward him. Just after that, authorities said, another rioter repeatedly shocked Fanone with the stun gun, and Young helped restrain the officer as another rioter stole his badge and radio. Young lost his grip on Fanone as the mob moved. He then pushed and hit a nearby Capitol Police officer, who had just been struck with bear spray, according to documents filed with his plea. Young also pointed a strobe light at the officers, jabbed at them with a stick and threw an audio speaker toward the police line, hitting another rioter in the back of the head, prosecutors said.

Jan. 6 committee postpones hearing because of hurricane Ian - The House Jan. 6 committee scheduled for Wednesday has been postponed because of Hurricane Ian. The storm is expected to make landfall in Florida at about the same time as the hearing was to take place. "In light of Hurricane Ian bearing down on parts of Florida, we have decided to postpone tomorrow's proceedings," Chairman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., and Vice Chair Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., said in a statement Tuesday afternoon. 'We're praying for the safety of all those in the storm's path. The Select Committee's investigation goes forward and we will soon announce a date for the postponed proceedings." Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Democratic member of the panel, represents Florida's 7th Congressional District. The committee was set to reconvene Wednesday after a two-month hiatus for a midday hearing. But the rapid advancement of Hurricane Ian is now dominating airwaves, with the storm currently a Category 3 hurricane and expected to grow stronger. Thompson previously told reporters that the committee would be airing "substantial footage" and "significant witness testimony" but didn't give any more details on what the public can expect to see or what the focus of the hearing would be. Lawmakers held eight televised hearings from June to July detailing what they described as former President Donald Trump's "sophisticated" efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, which they said led to the events that took place on Jan. 6, 2021. The hearings, two of which were held in prime-time, were produced to capture the public's attention more than a year and half after the riot.

Jan. 6 Was Just the Beginning for the Proud Boys - - Judged by most conventional metrics of political success, the Proud Boys — the far-right street gang whose yellow-and-black-clad members became fixtures of MAGA rallies during the Trump years — have been a colossal failure. Following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol, many of the group’s leaders are either in jail or facing federal charges for seditious conspiracy. Sporadic attempts by rank-and-file members to run for public office have mostly come to naught. At least one major U.S. ally — Canada — has officially designated the group as a terrorist entity, along with Al Qaeda and Boko Haram.But to evaluate the Proud Boys using these more traditional standards is to miss the subtler — yet more consequential — ways that the group has transformed the tenor and tone of American politics, argues Huffington Postsenior editor and veteran extremism reporter Andy Campbell in his new book, “We are Proud Boys: How a Right-Wing Street Gang Ushered in a New Era of American Extremism. Campbell, who has covered the Proud Boys since their formation in the early Trump years, instead judges the Proud Boys by the standards that they use to judge themselves — namely, their ability to convince the mainstream of the Republican Party that violence is, sometimes, the answer. By that metric, Campbell writes, the Proud Boys have been “the most successful extremist group in the digital age.”The success of the Proud Boys’ effort to normalize political violence is perhaps most evident in the Republican National Committee’s decision to classify the violence of Jan. 6 as “legitimate political discourse.” But it is also apparent in the near-constant threat of violent clashes that hangs over practically every political protest or rally that draws national media attention.“Can you imagine going to any political protest or event that happens to be on Fox News that evening and not seeing weapons and people fighting?” Campbell asked when we spoke by phone last week. “This is a totally normal thing [now], where it wasn’t in 2016.”Although it may seem like the legal fallout from Jan. 6 has put the group on its heels, there is a danger in assuming that action by law enforcement will be enough to suppress the Proud Boys’ violence in the long run. Unlike a more traditional political party or activist group, Campbell explained, the Proud Boys don’t necessarily view an indictment or a federal conspiracy charge as a rebuke to their political project. On the contrary, they see it as a reason to fight harder.“A number of people wrote them off once after Jan. 6, saying, ‘Oh, the Proud Boys are imploding, or they’re going to dissolve after this,’” Campbell told me. “But sure enough, they’re still in action.”

Roger Stone Promoted Violence, Then Sought Pardon After Jan. 6, Evidence Shows - Shortly after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, as authorities began arresting people across the country in connection with the violence, the political operative Roger J. Stone Jr. started texting with a lawyer representing President Donald J. Trump in his second impeachment trial, seeking a pardon. “There will be mass prosecutions,” Mr. Stone wrote to David I. Schoen, the lawyer. “Mark my words.” Could Mr. Schoen “plug” his pardon request the next time he spoke to the president? The text messages are part of a trove of video evidence Danish filmmakers have turned over to the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol, which also shows Mr. Stone threatening violence and spelling out plans to fight the election results. Some of the material was expected in the panel’s next hearing, which had been planned for Wednesday but was postponed abruptly on Tuesday afternoon, with committee members citing the impending impact of Hurricane Ian. “At this point I’d be happy if he pardoned me and Kerik again,” Mr. Stone wrote to Mr. Schoen, referring to Bernard B. Kerik, the former New York City police commissioner and longtime ally of Mr. Trump who had repeatedly challenged the results of the election. “He’s already pardoned both of us so he would take no heat for it whatsoever.” Mr. Schoen answered: “If he can be the only president impeached twice maybe you should be the only person pardoned twice.” The footage shows Mr. Stone using bellicose language and laying out plans to create and exploit uncertainty about the election results to help Mr. Trump cling to power. “Fuck the voting,” he says at one point with a laugh. “Let’s get right to the violence. Shoot to kill.” The committee obtained the footage from the filmmakers after extensive negotiations, issuing a subpoena and then traveling to Copenhagen to spend a week going through the evidence. They received about 10 minutes out of 170 hours of footage from a crew that trailed Mr. Stone for more than three years to make a documentary, entitled “A Storm Foretold.” Christoffer Guldbrandsen, the filmmaker who followed Mr. Stone off and on for more than three years, said he had provided the panel with clips they “specifically requested,” but turned down similar requests from the F.B.I., because he didn’t want to work with law enforcement. “Their interest was gravitating around Roger Stone and his relationship with the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys in particular, and his role communicating with them before and after Jan. 6,” Mr. Guldbrandsen said of the committee. Mr. Stone, a Florida resident, has long maintained close ties to the Proud Boys, especially to Enrique Tarrio, the group’s former leader who lived in Miami before his arrest in March on seditious conspiracy charges connected to the Capitol attack. Mr. Stone has also been associated with another top member of the Florida Proud Boys, Joseph Biggs, who was arrested two weeks after the storming of the Capitol and is now part of the same sedition case as Mr. Tarrio.

Ginni Thomas tells Jan. 6 panel she still believes false election fraud claims, chair says - Virginia Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, told the Jan. 6 panel during lengthy testimony Thursday that she still believes false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump, according to the panel’s chair. “The information was typical of a lot of information we received from other people who were involved in this effort around Jan. 6. A lot of: ‘Well, I believed something was wrong,’” select committee chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), told reporters Thursday of Thomas’ testimony. “She was one of those people we wanted to talk to and, ultimately, we eventually got there.” Thompson also told reporters Thomas had answered “some questions” Thursday during her interview. Thomas, also known as Ginni, sat with the panel behind closed doors for over four hours in a congressional office building where they have conducted many of their interviews. She is one of the select committee’s major outstanding witnesses as investigators start to wind down their probe, and they’ve wanted to ask her questions about her connections to John Eastman, a legal architect of Trump’s last-ditch plan to subvert the 2020 election. “She had conversations [with] and was messaging John Eastman. We have questions about that,” said panel member Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.). Thomas had invited Eastman to speak to an activist group in the aftermath of the election, though Eastman has denied ever discussing Supreme Court-related matters with Thomas. CBS and the Washington Post had also published text messages from her to top Trump allies, in which she urged them to investigate debunked claims of election fraud and to fight harder to overturn the election results. The select panel had been trying to talk to her for months, finally reaching an agreement with her last week. A select panel spokesperson declined to comment on Thomas’ appearance. Her attorney, Mark Paoletta, said in a statement she was “happy to cooperate” Thursday to clear up “misconceptions about her activities about her activities surrounding the 2020 elections.” “She answered all of the Committee’s questions,” he said. He added that she told the committee her election-related activity “focused on ensuring that reports of fraud and irregularities were investigated” and that she played no role in post-election events beyond her push for investigations. Meanwhile, the select panel is currently searching for a new date for its likely final hearing, which they postponed due to Hurricane Ian. The House plans to leave D.C. Friday and are not scheduled to return until November due to midterm campaigns, possibly complicating efforts to reschedule the hearing.

Judge again sides with Trump in Mar-a-Lago documents fight - The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s challenge to the FBI’s seizure of documents from his Florida estate again sided with the former president Thursday in the ongoing showdown with the Justice Department. U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon issued an order extending the timeline of an outside review Trump demanded of the documents and other materials the FBI seized from Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach on Aug. 8 as part of an investigation into alleged unlawful retention of classified materials and other government records as well as obstruction of justice. She also overruled some of the procedures proposed by the independent reviewer, senior U.S. District Court Judge Raymond Dearie, whom she appointed to the role at Trump’s request. Cannon, a Trump appointee based in Fort Pierce, Fla., essentially adopted a slower timeline proposed by Trump’s attorney for the document review to be conducted by Dearie, who is based in Brooklyn. Under Cannon’s new order, the review and her handling of any objections to Dearie’s rulings will almost certainly stretch into the new year. Can we explain Trump’s reaction to the DOJ probe in 2 minutes? A POLITICO reporter tries (and fails, again) In addition, Cannon rejected Dearie’s plan to require Trump to say at the outset of the review whether he believes the FBI’s inventory of seized materials is faulty, either by omitting items that were seized, including items that were not seized or both. Trump has repeatedly suggested, without offering evidence, that the FBI planted evidence at his home during the court-ordered search. “There shall be no separate requirement on Plaintiff at this stage, prior to the review of any of the Seized Materials, to lodge ex ante final objections to the accuracy of Defendant’s Inventory, its descriptions, or its contents,” Cannon wrote. Under Cannon’s ruling, Trump will be allowed to raise such concerns later in the process. Cannon also wiped out Dearie’s plan to break the documents into sets and handle objections on a rolling basis. Instead, there will be one deadline — which is likely to arrive in early November — by which Trump’s side must state which specific documents it believes are subject to attorney-client privilege or executive privilege as well as which he believes qualify as presidential records or personal records under the terms of the Presidential Records Act.

Liz Cheney Says Will Campaign For Democrats, Leave Republican Party If Trump Is 2024 Nominee - Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said on Saturday that she will not remain a Republican if former President Donald Trump is the GOP presidential nominee in the 2024 elections, and that she would also be willing to campaign for Democrats to stop GOP nominee Kari Lake from being elected in the Arizona gubernatorial race. Cheney, who has been called a “Republican in name only” by others in her party and lost the Republican primary to Trump-backed challenger Harriet Hageman in August, made the comments at The Texas Tribune festival in Austin.“I’m going to do everything I can to make sure Kari Lake is not elected,” Cheney said.Former television anchor Lake, who is endorsed by Trump, won the Republican nomination in the Arizona primary election in August. Lake has been vocal in contending fraud in the 2020 election and has pledged to improve election security if she wins the gubernatorial race.When asked by Texas Tribune CEO Evan Smith whether doing everything she can to ensure Lake is not elected included campaigning for Democrats, Cheney simply stated: “Yes.”Cheney, who has become one of the most vocal voices in the Republican Party against former President Donald Trump, later added that she would not remain a Republican if he were to gain the party’s nomination in 2024.“I’m going to make sure Donald Trump, I’m going to do everything I can to make sure he is not the nominee. And if he is the nominee, I won’t be a Republican,” Cheney said.Cheney also mentioned Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who has said he will campaign for Lake.“He’s demonstrated that he’s somebody who has not bought into the toxin of Donald Trump—but he campaigned recently for Kari Lake, who’s an election denier, who is dangerous,” Cheney said....Cheney announced in August that she’s considering running for president in 2024 but has not yet made a decision on the potential run.“That’s a decision that I’m going to make in the coming months,” she said on Aug. 17 in an interview on NBC’s “Today” show, despite having just lost in the Republican primary for the seat she now holds.Cheney was one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump. She is also one of two Republican members sitting on the Democrat-led House panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol.

Nancy Pelosi Booed At NYC Festival: 'Doesn't Bode Well For Dems Ahead Of Mid-Terms' - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a surprise appearance at a Saturday night music festival in New York City, called the "Global Citizen music festival". She was introduced on stage by Priyanka Chopra Jonas, wife of American singer and actor Nick Jonas, to speak about climate change and carbon pollution. But instead of the climactic "surprise" celebratory moment that organizers were hoping for, Pelosi's presence triggered loud boos from the sizeable audience, as multiple videos from the event show... Pelosi got Booed at The Global Citizen Festival in NYC pic.twitter.com/KfpwyO305b — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 25, 2022 "As speaker of the house, I am here to thank you for your dazzling advocacy, entrepreneurial thinking, and determination as global citizens," she told the crowd, as quoted in NY Post. While some occasional cheers could be heard, by and large she was booed and heckled so fiercely throughout the remarks that at times she struggled to speak over the noise. The reaction of the likely largely young Democrat crowd doesn't look good for Dems ahead of the mid-term elections in November: "Crowd's reaction to Pelosi at music festival doesn't bode well for Dems," Fox observed on its homepage. The Daily Mail has speculated the negative reaction likely stems from recognition of of the spectacle of yet another celebrity politician seen backstage with A-listers and who flies around in private jets lecturing young people about saving the planet:

Psaki Admits Democrats Will Lose If Midterms Are A 'Referendum' On Biden - Former White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Sunday said the Democrats will lose if the November midterm elections are a “referendum” on President Joe Biden.“If it is a referendum on the president, they will lose. And they know that. They also know that crime is a huge vulnerability for Democrats, I would say one of the biggest vulnerabilities,” Psaki said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sept. 25.On the contrary, Psaki said that if the focus of the midterm elections is on the “most extreme” party, mentioning House Minority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) by name, the Democrats will secure a victory in November. With a little more than 40 days to go before the November elections, Biden’s public approval rating remains low. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, 39 percent of Americans approved of the president, while 57 percent disapproved.Additionally, 67 percent of the respondents said the United States was heading in the wrong direction, while 21 percent said the country was on the right track.Even Democrats are abandoning Biden as the party’s nominee for president in 2024. According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, just 35 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents prefer Biden for the 2024 nomination, while 56 percent say the party should pick someone else.

Here's how AOC unwittingly sparked NY Attorney General Letitia James' lawsuit into Donald Trump and the Trump Organization -- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's probing questions at a congressional hearing more than three years ago bore legal fruit this week when New York Attorney General Letitia James announced a $250 million civil lawsuit against former President Donald Trump — and credited the Democratic lawmaker with sparking the investigation. The New York attorney general's office announced Wednesday that it had asked federal prosecutors to investigate Trump's business practice regarding possible federal crimes. The request comes on the heels of James filing a sprawling lawsuit against Trump, his three eldest children, and the Trump Organization, accusing the former president of inflating his net worth and claiming that his business artificially inflated or deflated asset values for tax purposes. The announcement is the culmination of James' three-year probe into Trump and his New York business empire. But the story of Trump's most recent legal malady begins at a February 2019 congressional hearing — where a then-freshman lawmaker went toe-to-toe with a convicted criminal. Just one month into her newfound role as a congresswoman, Ocasio-Cortez stole the show at a House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing where Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer and fixer, testified publicly against his one-time boss. Ocasio-Cortez, who sent shockwaves through Washington, DC, the year prior after she unseated a longtime lawmaker in New York's Democratic primary, earned praise for her questions and follow-ups which prompted Cohen to make some enlightening revelations. The New York congresswoman probed Cohen about whether Trump had ever provided inflated assets to an insurance company. Cohen, who was sentenced in 2018 to three years in prison after pleading guilty to charges in two separate investigations, confirmed that the then-president had offered up fraudulent asset information. Cohen also said several Trump Organization executives, including Allen Weisselberg, Ron Lieberman, and Matthew Calamari, were aware of such practices. "And where would the committee find more information on this?" Ocasio-Cortez asked. "Do you think we need to review his financial statements and his tax returns in order to compare them?" "Yes, and you'd find it at the Trump Org," Cohen replied. The New York attorney general this week credited the 2019 exchange with prompting the probe. "I will remind everyone that this investigation only started after Michael Cohen, the former lawyer, his former lawyer, testified before Congress and shed light on this misconduct," James said.

 Democrats unveil bill to restrict trading by lawmakers, presidents -A House proposal to restrict stock ownership and trading by members of Congress, the president and vice president, Supreme Court justices and other high-ranking government officials is mired in Democratic infighting, threatening supporters' hopes for a pre-election victory. The bill's sponsors planned to introduce the legislation on Wednesday, but multiple House officials familiar with Democrats' discussions said any floor action on the bill almost certainly is shelved, at least for now. Lawmakers are scheduled to leave Washington this week until after the November election. A spokesperson for Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said late Tuesday that more details on the stock trading bill would be released as they become available. Other officials, who did not want to be identified in discussing private conversations, described deep divisions among top party leaders over details of the bill, which was not released until late Tuesday night. Democrats in competitive races, meanwhile, oppose parts of the legislation and don't want to take a politically difficult vote just weeks before the election, the officials said. A group of senators is drafting their own legislation, but it hasn't been unveiled and the Senate doesn't have any immediate plans to take up the bill. But other Democrats are urging Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her lieutenants to act before the midterm elections on good-governance legislation taking aim at conflicts of interest at the highest levels of the government. Forcing a vote now has the added bonus of putting Republicans on the spot, they said. Top Democrats plan to gather Wednesday in a meeting that could decide the path forward.

Hedge Funds Keep Betting Wrongly On USD Peak - Leveraged funds trimmed their USD longs by the most in three months for the week to Sept. 20, just in time for the greenback to soar once more as the Fed doubled down on policy hawkishness. Markets are still seemingly incapable of believing that central banks no longer have their backs, which highlights the potential for further declines across assets despite the pain already inflicted. The net USD long from leveraged funds across currencies dropped by about 39,000 contracts in the week to Sept. 20. The biggest drop was in USD/JPY longs -- undoubtedly spurred by the BOJ FX rate checks that turned out to be a key move to prepare for actual intervention. The rest of the action saw a large jump in GBP longs, and a big reduction in the net AUD short to the smallest such bet since May. The yen change was the one where funds, given clear guidance from a central bank, got things right. Barely. The yen is up 0.1% since Sept. 20, the day of the CFTC data, the only pair covered by the contracts to register a gain. GBP has tumbled 5% and AUD by 2.4%. Looks like leveraged funds getting squeezed is the cherry on top of a few pain cakes out there this week.

Fed reverse repo use hits fresh record as investors hide in cash - The amount of money that investors are parking at a major Federal Reserve facility climbed to yet another all-time high as funds sought out places to stash short-term cash. Some 101 participants on Wednesday put a total of $2.367 trillion at the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, in which counterparties like money market funds can place cash with the central bank. The previous record was $2.359 trillion set on Sept. 22. The facility pays an overnight rate of 3.05% — which increased from 2.30% on Sept. 22 after the Fed hiked its main policy rate by the same increment. It's the highest yield the Fed has offered on the facility since it started the daily offerings in 2013. Participation had been increasing as many investors brace for the prospect of rapidly rising interest rates by keeping the maturity of their holdings as short as possible, enabling them to deploy cash more nimbly if officials tighten monetary policy more quickly than expected. That has spurred flows into overnight instruments that don't have a risk of capital loss, like the so-called RRP, an influx that may continue given the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate path. At the same time, there's been a broader shift to cash-like assets as volatility roils financial markets from equities to fixed income. Those imbalances are unlikely to go away anytime soon even as financial conditions tighten. Fed officials said in the minutes of the July gathering the evolution of the takeup at the RRP facility would continue to depend on changes in the supply of safe, short-term investments, and demand from the money-market funds. At the same time, staff noted yields offered by money funds were well above those offered by banks and would attract inflows into money markets, which could push balances at the Fed's daily operation higher.

 Nowhere to Hide: The Fed-Induced Bubble in Stocks and Bonds Is Blowing Up; Even the Typical Safe Havens of Gold and T-Notes Are Losing Money By Pam and Russ Martens - The corrupt political backdrop for today’s unprecedented market quagmire feels like a hyperbolic trailer for a low-budget sci-fi thriller: The former president of the only remaining superpower in the world has been charged with “staggering” frauds against banks – the ones he just deregulated as president. (This same former president was also caught red-handed with Top Secret documents after he left public office — but the super power’s 18 intelligence agencies have no idea what he did, or was planning to do, with these documents.)On the other side of the globe, the sitting president of a bygone superpower is engaging in nuclear saber-rattling and conscripting 60-year-old men to fight an illegal war while young, able-bodied men flee the country en masse.The world’s financial markets have gone off the rails in an equally disorienting fashion. The central bankers that had created bubbles in almost every asset class by keeping interest rates at zero for years, are now in competition for how fast they can raise interest rates in order to keep their currencies from collapsing and causing further crippling inflation. The dramatic spike in interest rates around the globe is causing prices to collapse in everything from stocks, bonds, commodities, and risk assets. There is nowhere for investors to hide.Even the typical safe havens are quick sand. Gold has fallen from more than $2,000 in March to a closing price of $1,651.70 last Friday, a decline of 17.4 percent from March.How about hiding out in short-term U.S. Treasury securities? Isn’t that always a safe haven? Not this time. Consider the share price of the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). It sported a $61 share price last December. It closed at $57.79 on Friday. That’s because the Fed has promised to continue the pain (hiking short-term interest rates, which causes losses in existing debt instruments with lower fixed rates) until it gets inflation under control.The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note is the highest in 15 years, closing Friday with a yield of 4.21 percent. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its Fed Funds rate to 3 – 3.25 percent, hiking by ¾ point (75 basis points) for the third consecutive time this year (in June, July and September). Those hikes followed a ¼ point rate increase in March and a ½ point increase in May. The Fed’s actions effectively tripled short term interest rates in a span of six months – the most aggressive interest rate moves by the Fed in more than four decades.In addition, according to the projections released by the Fed last Wednesday, it is planning to raise its Fed Funds interest rate (short-term overnight borrowing rate) to as much as 4.6 percent by next year. That would mean that it expects to hike rates by an additional 1.35 percent into next year.At the end of August, Bespoke Investment Group released a study that found that the combined losses in stocks and bonds for investors was the worst in 50 years, because Wall Street financial advisors typically recommend a portfolio that is 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. Both asset classes are not supposed to suffer sharp losses at the same time; one asset class is supposed to be a hedge against the other.The 60-40 retiree portfolio is not the only portfolio feeling the pain. Hedge funds, trading houses, asset managers and Wall Street mega banks were not positioned for this type of aggressive monetary action by the Fed. Markets are starting to see large liquidations to stave off more pain.The share prices of two Wall Street mega banks, that rank number one and number two in terms of the largest derivative exposure, are tanking. Year-over-year, JPMorgan Chase has lost 32 percent of its market value while Citigroup has lost 38 percent. (See chart below.) …

Bank regulators embark on living will guidance for the largest non-GSIBs - — Two major banking regulators say they "anticipate" giving the largest regional banks guidance on resolution plans. The move marks a big step forward for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve, which have been mulling how to distinguish requirements for the large regional banks' living wills from those of the too-big-to-fail institutions. The agencies said the guidance will apply generally to banks with more than $250 billion assets. Global systemically important banks, or G-SIBs, have already received guidance. There will be a public comment period before the guidance is finalized. Regulators, including acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and acting FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg, have advocated for strengthening large regional banks' resolvability requirements when they're going through mergers, arguing that those large regional banks have grown increasingly complicated and important to the global financial system. Large bank mergers have received some scrutiny from policymakers so far. In 2019 when BB&T and Suntrust received approval to form Truist, then-board member of the FDIC Gruenberg said that "it would be a serious mistake not to recognize and address the very significant financial stability risks the merged institution would present." Tied into Fed and FDIC's announcement, the two agencies said that they found no "deficiencies" or "shortcomings" in Truist's resolution plan, which the bank is required to submit every three years as a "Category III" banking institution. The bank submitted a "full" instead of "targeted" resolution plan, which would otherwise be required, as part of an agreement that came along with regulatory approval for Suntrust and BB&T's deal. The FDIC and Fed did give the bank feedback on how it could strengthen its plan, providing clues on what kind of guidance the agencies could issue in the future. Truist's next plan is due on or before July 1, 2024. The bank should consider how they would set up a "bridge depository institution," which is what's used to operate an insolvent bank, and how it would be "the least costly," to the Deposit Insurance Fund. They should also plan to provide one or more exit options from the bridge depository institutions, and should consider the liquidity needed to go through a resolution process. "These and other potential improvements to resolvability are appropriate topics for this future resolution planning guidance," the agencies said in their feedback to Truist.

Fed calls for new rules on financial market utility risk management - The Federal Reserve is considering changes to how it oversees risk management by systemically important financial market utilities. The Fed is seeking to modernize its requirements for the nonbank entities it supervises that are deemed financial market utilities, or FMUs, to address contemporary risks related to cybersecurity, severe weather and other exogenous threats. "In light of the rapidly evolving risk landscape, the proposed changes will help ensure that key financial market utilities operate with a high level of resilience and remain a source of strength for the financial system," Vice Chair Lael Brainard said in a statement. FMUs are firms that facilitate transactions between financial institutions, including clearing and settling payments and transfers, as well as securities-related transactions, such as swaps. The organizations help make sure such agreements are carried out even if one party fails to meet its obligations. The Fed's proposal, released Friday afternoon, includes four broad categories of changes. It would require FMUs to report operational incidents and disruptions to the Fed Board immediately, establish and regularly update a plan for reconnecting to its participants after a disruption, create policy for managing third-party risk and adhere to more specific testing and review standards. The Fed notes that because many of the provisions called for would simplify practices already in effect within most FMUs, it expects the costs of complying with these standards will be minimal. Also, the Fed will hold its Fedwire Services, which provides a similar service to that of the FMUs, to the same standards, preventing it from having an advantage over the private market. Title VIII of the Dodd-Frank Act gave the Financial Stability Oversight Council the authority to designate transaction-process firms as systemically important FMUs if they were large enough to pose a threat to financial stability were they to fail. Eight firms have been given that designation: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.; ICE Clear Credit; the Options Clearing Corp.; Depository Trust Co.; Fixed Income Clearing Corp.; National Securities Clearing Corp.; The Clearing House Payments Co.; and CLS Bank International. The Fed has supervisory authority over The Clearing House and CLS Bank. No new FMUs have been designated since 2012.

'Regulation is not cost-free': Fed's Bowman urges caution on rule changes - Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said the central bank should proceed with caution as it reconsiders various aspects of the bank capital framework, including stress testing, the countercyclical capital buffer, supplemental leverage ratio and other rules. Speaking at the Institute for International Finance Friday morning, Bowman said her philosophy toward bank regulation centers around the core principle of balancing the need for prudential oversight and the need for that oversight to be deliberate, predictable and efficient. "In the design of a regulatory framework, there is flexibility in how to achieve a desired outcome, and there are often multiple approaches that would be effective in doing so," Bowman said. "Once a decision has been made to regulate an activity, the next objective should be to ensure that the regulation achieves its intended purpose and that there are not more efficient alternatives that can yield those benefits at a lower cost." Bowman noted that there was strong public support for infusing additional capital, liquidity and resolvability requirements into the banking system following the 2008 financial crisis, particularly for the largest banks, and said those changes have been successful in making the banking and financial systems more resilient to shocks. But there are also risks to the financial system that can emerge from overburdening the banking system with prudential rules when they serve marginal benefit to safety and soundness. "There are obvious risks from under-regulation, and it is those risks that were addressed in the wake of the financial crisis 14 years ago," Bowman said. "[But] calibrating capital requirements is not a zero-sum game, where more capital is necessarily always better. Regulation is not cost-free. Over-regulation can restrain bank lending, which becomes a burden for individual borrowers and a potential threat to economic growth." Bowman said the stress testing program — a centerpiece of the Fed's supervisory innovations after 2008 — has been effective in both tailoring burdens to a bank's risk profile and ensuring banks are resilient to shocks. But the tests as currently implemented can have the effect of forcing banks to make capital allocation choices that respond to the test's theoretical scenarios without a demonstrable resilience benefit.

Wall Street's WhatsApp probe set to result in historic fine -U.S. regulators are poised to announce a settlement of about $2 billion with firms across Wall Street for failing to monitor employees using unauthorized messaging apps such as WhatsApp. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are preparing to disclose the results of the investigation as soon as Wednesday, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The penalties are poised to be the largest of their kind, with the total fines described by a person with knowledge of the matter and disclosures made by the world's largest banks. Representatives for the SEC and CFTC declined to comment. The action represents a rare escalation from regulators looking into such an issue, with fines tending to be significantly lower in the past. The sweeping civil probes rank among the largest-ever penalties levied against U.S. banks for record-keeping lapses, dwarfing a $15 million penalty imposed on Morgan Stanley in 2006 over its failure to preserve emails. Morgan Stanley said in July it was nearing a settlement that would see it pay a $200 million fine — a figure that was likely to be mirrored by its biggest rivals. Other major banks also disclosed setting aside similar figures at the end of their second-quarter earnings without specifying the reason. JPMorgan Chase has been the only bank until now to reach a settlement with the regulators, and was the first to report the fines in December. Even managing directors and other senior supervisors at the largest U.S. bank had skirted regulatory scrutiny by using services such as WhatsApp or personal email addresses for work-related communication, regulators said at the time. Finance firms are required to scrupulously monitor communications involving their business to head off improper conduct. That system, already challenged by the proliferation of mobile-messaging apps, was strained further as firms sent workers home shortly after the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. In recent months, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse Group have set aside similar amounts to resolve the probes, according to public disclosures and people familiar with the matter.

Fed taps six big banks for climate stress-test pilot -Six global systemically important banks will participate in the Federal Reserve's pilot climate scenario analysis exercise next year.The Fed said Thursday that it has tapped JPMorgan Case, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo for the program, which will commence in early 2023 and likely run until the end of the year.Like the Fed's stress test, the exercise will examine how resilient the banks are to various hypothetical stress scenarios, except rather than economic shocks, the climate stress test will test banks' resilience to climate-related stress scenarios. The Fed emphasized that the exercise is of an "exploratory nature" and is meant to enhance the financial system's ability to manage potential climate risks and will not entail supervisory or capital implications for the banks that participate.The Financial Services Forum, which represents many of the country's largest banks, welcomed the exercise and noted that many participating banks have been modeling climate risk already."Our members recognize the need for sound management of exposures to climate-related financial risks and have incorporated such risks into their risk-management frameworks for the past several years," the Forum said in a statement. "Our participating members look forward to working with the Federal Reserve on this pilot exercise."Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr first announced the Fed's plan to roll out a "microprudential scenario analysis exercise" focused on climate risk in a speech at the Brookings Institution earlier this month. Barr said the Fed would work with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to develop guidelines for large banks on managing climate risks as well as mechanisms for monitoring banks' readiness to deal with climate shocks. The limited scenario test is the first step in that process, he said. Barr said the examination would explore both the physical risks of climate change — such as storm or flood damage to businesses and properties — as well as transition risk, meaning the impact of policy changes aimed at curbing things like carbon consumption. He noted that the Fed's ability to intervene on climate issues were limited to issues directly related to bank solvency.

BankThink: Financial firms face difficult choices on ESG compliance | American Banker - Lately, it feels as if the environmental, social and governance ante is constantly being raised.Across the financial industry, institutions are not only facing impending regulatory pressure but also heightened interest from investors, shareholders and the average consumer. News coverage focuses more and more on storms and weather patterns of increased severity. Commercials aired during major sporting events no longer predominantly advertise the flashy lines and off-road capabilities of cars and trucks, but also stress the sustainability practices of automobile manufacturers.Even the war in Ukraine has thrust ESG more to the forefront, with soaring gas prices emphasizing the need to transition to a net-zero carbon economy — not only for the sake of the planet, but to reduce the West's reliance on volatile countries for energy supplies.Then, of course, there is the Securities and Exchange Commission's recent publication of its proposed Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors in March 2022, the culmination of a rapid-fire rollout of recommended climate-focused regulatory guidance issued by several U.S. regulatory agencies since November 2021. Obscurity regarding what future climate-related regulatory expectations may look like is diminishing, but the number of questions about when and how financial institutions can possibly align with the aggressive reporting requirements the SEC and other agencies propose is rising exponentially.After months analyzing the SEC's proposed disclosure rules, many across the financial industry have concluded that the guidance is both overly prescriptive and premature. The financial industry is already heavily burdened from a regulatory perspective, and there are broader concerns that banks will be expected to carry the load in lieu of formal climate change-focused public policy and legislation. As always with ESG, there seem to be more questions than answers.The financial industry may be wise to move cautiously when it comes to aligning with early climate change regulatory guidance. Climate change-related risks are being felt more and more keenly with every drought, forest fire or Category 5 hurricane. Annually, the United States typically sustains approximately $120 billion in climate change-related damage. That being said, the more extreme effects of climate change will likely gradually materialize over time — which makes it extremely challenging to predict with any sense of accuracy when and where potential resultant shocks to the financial system may occur.The physical risks associated with climate change are one thing, but there are also potential transition risks that may result from increased market volatility stemming from the introduction of new green technologies or destabilized or stigmatized sectors as an attempt is made to segue to a net-zero carbon economy. Will the SEC's rigid reporting guidelines for Scope 1, 2 and 3 greenhouse gas emissions really make a dent in all this uncertainty?

Bank regulators to provide supervisory relief in wake of hurricanes -State and federal regulators are encouraging banks to work with borrowers hit hardest by Hurricanes Fiona and Ian this month. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., National Credit Union Administration and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced Thursday that they would not penalize the institution they supervise for "prudent efforts" to adjust loan terms for impacted borrowers. "In supervising institutions affected by Hurricanes Fiona and Ian, the agencies will consider the unusual circumstances these institutions face," the regulators said in a joint statement. "The agencies recognize that efforts to work with borrowers in communities under stress can be consistent with safe-and-sound practices as well as in the public interest." Hurricane Ian made landfall Wednesday, barreling into southwest Florida as a Category 4 storm with winds up to 150 miles per hour and several feet of storm-water surge, according to The Associated Press. At least 2 million in the state lost power and the state is expected to make its way up the Atlantic Coast for the remainder of the week. On Sept. 18, Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico with heavy rains and winds well over 100 mph. The entire island of 3.2 million people lost power during the storm. Hundreds of thousands remain without power still. The federal groups, along with state regulators represented by the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, said they would allow impacted banks to operate from temporary facilities, if need be, and they would not penalize institutions that fail to meet publishing and regulatory reporting requirements because of storm-related disruptions. For all issues, the agencies urged hard-hit banks to contact their state or federal regulator to report problems and seek accommodations.

Fed's Bowman: Bank merger reform should consider credit union, nonbank competition - Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman wants regulators to take a broader view of competition when weighing proposed bank mergers. Speaking at the Conference of State Bank Supervisors' Community Bank Research Conference on Wednesday morning, Bowman said competition from credit unions, digital banks and nonbanks — all of which have dramatically increased their reach in recent decades — should be factored into market analysis when evaluating bank combinations. "As the nature of competition changes, it creates an opportunity for us to rethink how we evaluate bank mergers, how we define banking markets, and how we develop a more comprehensive understanding of the ways consumers and businesses access financial products and services today and how they might do so in the future," she said. Bowman's remarks come as bank regulators and the Justice Department are reviewing their policies for evaluating bank mergers and acquisitions for the first time since 1995.Bank merger reform was identified as a priority early in the Biden administration, amid an uptick in M&A activity following the COVID-19 slowdown. Democrats in Congress have argued that overly accommodative policies have led to market concentration that is harmful to consumers. Industry advocates have called for an update to merger standards, too, but forvery different reasons. They argue outdated evaluation methods have put banks at a disadvantage to unregulated financial technology companies. Bowman, the lone member of the Fed's committee on supervision and regulation, called for changes to the screening process that would make it easier for community banks to merge with one another without exceeding the limits on deposit shares of a given market. In her speech, Bowman cited several key changes in the financial landscape since the last time bank regulators reformed their merger policies. Credit unions are not considered competitors to banks because, historically, their field of membership restrictions limited how many deposits they could amass and the lines of business in which they could be active. As credit unions have grown their membership fields and moved into small-business lending and commercial lending, Bowman said, they can now compete directly with banks.

BankThink: Does the White House have a plan for the FDIC? | American Banker - Whenever I encounter a conspiracy theory related to something the government is secretly doing or has done, I tend to stop listening. That is not because I think the government is unwilling to do terrible things and keep them secret. Instead, it's because I don't think the government employs as much forethought and strategy as conspiracy theorists give them credit for. People make mistakes, and the government is run by people, so the government can make mistakes, too.When the White House announced two nominees for the vice chair and minority-party designee of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board last week — seats that in this case are required to be filled by republicans — I didn't think much of it. But when I read the FDIC's bylaws, it became apparent that if those nominations were confirmed by the Senate, the FDIC would immediately be chaired by Travis Hill, the former chief of staff for ex-FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams — unless they also put forward a name for FDIC chair, a position currently being held on an acting basis by Martin Gruenberg. The White House quickly assured curious reporters that the omission of an FDIC chair was not a mistake and that a nominee for chair would be forthcoming. And I have no reason to suspect that the administration won't make an announcement, if for no other reason than, at this point, it has to. But the question remains: Did this announcement roll out according to some kind of plan, or was it a mistake? This is important, because whichever answer turns out to be correct has implications for the future of the FDIC specifically and banking policy more generally. Here is where I engage in rank speculation — and to be absolutely clear, I have no inside knowledge from the administration to impart. But in my defense, it seems like not a lot of people have any, either. If the announcement went exactly the way the White House wanted it to go, then presumably Martin Gruenberg's name was not included on that list on purpose. If that's true, then it strongly suggests that someone in the administration would like to see someone else in that job, and sooner rather than later. That would make sense — Gruenberg has been at the FDIC for a long time and administrations tend to want to put their own people in charge. Perhaps the administration is just biding its time vetting alternatives, and it's also possible that in the coming weeks it announces its pick for FDIC chair and it's Gruenberg. That would be odd, but in the end it wouldn't really matter.If administration officials made that announcement without really knowing that it would force their hand on picking a permanent FDIC chair, then it means that they listened to someone's advice that they shouldn't have. Who that was and what their motives were will remain a mystery — at least as far as this column is concerned — but it speaks to a certain lack of attention that the administration is paying to the finer points of the bank regulatory complex.

California revises law that played key role in Wells Fargo scandal - California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed legislation that remedies a problem Los Angeles prosecutors encountered several years ago during their investigation of fake customer accounts at Wells Fargo. The problem was a chicken-or-egg scenario: investigators could not issue subpoenas to the San Francisco bank until after they filed a lawsuit, but collecting enough evidence to file suit was more difficult as a result of the investigators' inability to seek the information they needed directly from the bank. Ultimately, the LA city attorney's office did sue Wells Fargo under the California Unfair Competition Law, alleging that employees of the San Francisco bank engaged in fraudulent conduct in order to meet unrealistic sales quotas. But LA City Attorney Mike Feuer has lamented the fact that his office did not have the authority prior to filing a lawsuit to issue subpoenas, saying that it made the investigation of Wells Fargo less efficient. Under the newly revised state law, the LA city attorney and certain other local prosecutors in the nation's most populous state will have the ability to issue subpoenas prior to filing a lawsuit under the Unfair Competition Law. On Thursday, Feuer praised Newsom, a fellow Democrat, for signing the revised law. He cited not only the Wells Fargo suit, but also a range of consumer protection cases that his office has brought outside of the financial-services realm. "Time and again, we've successfully fought for hard-working Angelenos who've been ripped off — sometimes devastated — by unlawful business practices," Feuer said in a press release. "Our office will be all the more impactful now that we have this key investigative tool, allowing us to get to the heart of scams and put a stop to them even faster." The California Unfair Competition Law prohibits unfair and fraudulent business practices, as well as false and misleading advertising.

Report: Large banks opened far fewer branches in minority areas since 2010 -- Large banks have been far more likely over the past decade to open branches in wealthier predominantly white neighborhoods than in communities of color, according to a new report. The report, which examined trends at 14 of the largest U.S. banks between 2010 and 2021, found that they only opened 638 branches in low-to-moderate-income communities where people of color make up a majority.That accounted for roughly 15% of the 4,130 total branches that large banks opened during the time period, a far smaller proportion than the 61% of branch openings in predominantly white, middle-to-upper-income neighborhoods.Combined with disparities in branch closures, the findings highlight the need for bank regulators to use their tools "more forcefully" and ensure equitable access to branches, said Nick Weiner, the report's lead researcher and organizing lead at the Committee for Better Banks. The progressive group includes bank workers, consumer advocates and labor unions."Without more prodding and pressure, big banks will continue to overlook many, many communities that need access to financial services," Weiner said during a webinar outlining the findings.The report comes as federal regulators work to finalize their proposed revamp of the Community Reinvestment Act, a 1977 law that looks to ensure banks are serving low- or moderate-income areas adequately. The report recommended that regulators should examine branch opening data when reviewing mergers and in CRA exams, and that banks disclose similar metrics to the public every year.Wealthier neighborhoods made up primarily of people of color were not immune to disparities, with just 237 branch openings during the 11-year period, or 6% of all the branches opened. Upper-income areas where white people make up the majority saw 1,617 branch openings.Branch opening disparities were the worst in Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, New York City, San Diego and Seattle, the report said. Cities that fared better in the analysis included Atlanta, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, San Antonio and Washington, D.C.The findings show "there is much work to be done for banks to live up to their promises to promote racial and socioeconomic equity," Overall, the report found that low-and-moderate income areas and communities of color had a 15% chance that Bank of America would open a branch there compared to in a wealthy white neighborhood. That was lower than the 13 other banks the study looked at, including a 23% chance at JPMorgan Chase and 45% chance at Wells Fargo.

U.S. Chamber, trade groups sue CFPB over policy to root out discrimination - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and six trade groups sued the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday for enacting a policy earlier this year that aims to root out discrimination in all consumer financial products The American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association and four trade groups in Texas joined the Chamber in a 116-page lawsuit that alleges the CFPB exceeded its authority in March when it adopted a policy that, for the first time, claimed discrimination on the basis of age, race or sex — regardless of intent — violates the federal prohibition on "unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices," or UDAAP. Under the new policy, the CFPB sought to look for discrimination in a wide range of noncredit financial products including deposit and checking accounts, payments, prepaid cards, remittances and debt collection practices. Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association, said that the lawsuit was "a step we did not want to take, but it was a necessary step given the extraordinary actions of the CFPB." The CFPB enacted the policy by updating its supervisory exam manual and announcing it in a press release and blog post. The trade groups said the change amounted to a power grab that was "arbitrary" and "capricious," and in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act. The APA requires federal agencies to give public notice and allow for comments when issuing new rules. "The CFPB's decision to dramatically expand its regulatory reach without any input from the public was not authorized by statute and has significant implications for consumers, banks and the broader financial markets," said Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association. In the lawsuit, the trade groups stated that they fully support the fair enforcement of the nation's nondiscrimination laws, but claimed the policy had created regulatory uncertainty and imposed costly burdens on the business community. Nichols added that the lawsuit was "a step we did not want to take, but it was a necessary step given the extraordinary actions of the CFPB." Lindsey Johnson, president and CEO of the Consumer Bankers Association, said the changes the CFPB made to its exam manual was "an enormous self-expansion of the agency's authority," that was not intended by Congress.

Biden cites bank 'junk fees' as weighing down families -- President Biden admonished banks and specifically mentioned bank 'junk fees' in remarks Monday to the White House Competition Council in which the administration took credit for the dramatic drop in overdraft and nonsufficient-funds fees in the past yearBiden used the term junk fees in a nod to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra, who raised the ire of bankers in January with a request for information on what the agency called "exploitative junk fees." Biden's remarks signal that Democrats think the mention of the fees may appeal to voters ahead of the midterm elections or combat Republican attacks about the economy. "What we're talking about today is something that's weighing down family budgets: unnecessary hidden fees — unnecessary hidden fees, known in the parlance as junk fees — are hitting families at a time when they can't afford it," Biden said. "They shouldn't be paying it anyway, in my view — but [especially not] at a time when they can't afford it." Banking was just one of a range of industries including airlines, cell phone carriers and gas stations that Biden criticized. Biden said he is working to fight inflation and to bring down costs specifically for middle-class families. The dramatic decline in overdraft fees in the past year is something the Biden administration is celebrating. "We're on track to lower overdraft fees," Biden said, adding in his signature vernacular: "Catch this … [to] lower overdraft fees by $3 billion a year for primarily middle-class and lower middle-class families who are paying, because they're the ones usually in a position [to] bounce a check."

Banks push back against House credit card swipe fee bill -Eight trade groups representing banks and credit unions have announced their opposition to a bipartisan House bill from Reps. Lance Gooden, R-Texas, and Peter Welch, D-Vt., that has emerged as the latest flashpoint in the fight over swipe fees.The bill, a companion to legislation introduced by Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Roger Marshall, R-Kan., in July, would require large banks to allow credit card transactions to occur on at least two unaffiliated networks. One of them would have to be a smaller network, rather than Visa or Mastercard.The legislation is meant to reduce the pricing leverage that the largest payment networks' have over swipe fees, which are paid by merchants who accept credit cards. Swipe fees in the United States, also known as interchange fees, are among the highest in the world because of Visa and Mastercard's control of the market, according to the legislation's sponsors.But the banking industry groups argued in a letter to congressional leaders that the bill would "prioritize big box retailers over consumers." Signing on to the letter were the American Bankers Association, the Bank Policy Institute, the Consumer Bankers Association, the Credit Union National Association, the Electric Payments Coalition, the Independent Community Bankers of America, the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions and the National Bankers Association.

Overdraft fees again land Regions in hot water with CFPB - For the second time in seven years, Regions Bank is being penalized by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for charging customers with allegedly illegal overdraft fees. This time, the banking arm of Regions Financial was ordered to pay a civil money penalty of $50 million and refund at least $141 million to customers who were charged a type of overdraft fee that was levied on certain ATM withdrawals and debit card purchases. The consent order — which is one of the highest-dollar overdraft-related penalties issued recently by the CFPB — states that Birmingham, Alabama-based Regions charged about $141 million of so-called "authorized-positive fees" from August 2018 through July 2021. Regions, which was ordered to pay a total of $191 million in connection with overdraft fees, said Wednesday that it "disagrees with the CFPB's characterizations" but "cooperated with the investigation."Adobe Stock Such fees are charged when there is enough money in an account to complete an ATM or debit card transaction, but not enough money when the transaction actually posts to the account. Under the consent order, which was made public Wednesday, the CFPB banned Regions from charging authorized-positive fees, though Regions said it has not assessed them in over a year. The CFPB characterized the charges as "surprise overdraft fees" and accused the bank of using "complex and counterintuitive overdraft practices and manipulations" that made it hard for consumers to avoid such fees. The agency alleged that Regions' leadership team continued to assess such charges for years even after being warned that the practice was unlawful. "The bank's unintelligible and manipulative processes meant that even consumers closely monitoring their account balances and carefully calibrating their spending in accordance with the balances shown could not reasonably avoid surprise overdraft fees," the CFPB stated in a press release announcing the consent order. "Even Regions Bank's own employees could not explain to customers why they incurred the overdraft fees."

New York City comptroller presses U.S. Bank on fake accounts -- New York City Comptroller Brad Lander said in a recent letter that he's "gravely disturbed" by U.S. Bank's fake- accounts scandal. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in July fined the bank $37.5 million after the agency found the bank's employees unlawfully accessed credit reports and personal customer data to open unauthorized accounts. Lander sent a letter to U.S. Bank dated last Tuesday, asking how the bank's misconduct affected consumers in New York City. Lander asked for answers to several questions, including when bank leadership and the board of directors first became aware of the unauthorized account openings and how many New York City consumers were affected by the behavior. He asked for answers by the end of this week. "I thank you for your prompt response to these requests to ensure that U.S. Bank, N.A. remains in compliance with its depository and consumer protection obligations here in New York City," Lander wrote. The City of New York Office of the Comptroller referenced other scandals involving employees opening accounts that customers were unaware of, a reference to the Wells Fargo scandal where compensation incentives drove its own fake accounts saga. "This conduct, which according to the consent order persisted for over a decade even as other institutions paid record-breaking fines for similar misconduct, appears to be the byproduct of a problematic incentive compensation program that drove profits for U.S. Bank, N.A. while extracting fees from consumers by violating their data privacy," Lander said in the letter.

Banks point to law enforcement for solutions in combating P2P fraud - Financial institutions want law enforcement agencies to commit more time and resources to helping combat fraud in real-time payments even as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is looking into holding banks and payment processors liable for errors made by consumers. Amid a massive increase in fraud, banks and payment processors claim they cannot be held liable when a consumer is tricked into sending a payment that later turns out to be a scam.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra has sounded the alarm by calling the amount of fraud in the payments system "frightening," though he has not stated whether the bureau plans to issue guidance to address it. In the meantime, financial institutions want law enforcement to prosecute scams that have grown dramatically in the past two years. "There are things that banks have no control over, and it is vitally important that the government commit the resources and the time to combat fraudsters and scammers that are hurting both consumers and banks," said Rob Hunter, deputy general counsel at The Clearing House, a payments company that operates the private sector's real-time payments network, RTP. The issue of fraud in payments is complicated because the 1970s-era law governing electronic payments — the Electronic Fund Transfer Act of 1978 — was written before cellphones, digital wallets and real-time payments existed. Lawmakers apparently never envisioned that consumers would transfer money to criminals or someone they do not know in response to an unexpected text or phone call.Moreover, the implementing law, Regulation E, specifically defines an unauthorized transaction as a transfer that was not initiated by a consumer. Banks and payment processors are required under Reg E to investigate and reimburse consumers for so-called "unauthorized" transactions. But payments authorized by a consumer, and later found to be fraudulent, are not currently considered errors under Reg E, experts say. As a result, there is no requirement that institutions investigate any fraud or scams in authorized transactions.

SEC says backers of crypto token Hydro 'airdrop' broke its rules The company behind the digital coin Hydro and a crypto market-making firm tried to artificially inflate the token's price after it was offered through a so-called airdrop, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC said on Wednesday that The Hydrogen Technology Corp., its former chief executive officer, Michael Ross Kane, and Tyler Ostern, the CEO of Moonwalkers Trading Ltd., broke its rules by selling tokens the agency identified as securities into a market artificially inflated using bots. The regulator said that the Hydro tokens were initially distributed to investors through a variety of means, including airdrops and as employee compensation. Hydrogen hired Moonwalkers to "to create the false appearance of robust market activity for Hydro" and made more than $2 million in profits due to the effort, the regulator alleged. "Companies cannot avoid the federal securities laws by structuring the unregistered offers and sales of their securities as bounties, compensation, or other such methods," said Carolyn M. Welshhans, associate director of the regulator's enforcement division. In a statement, Hydrogen said the SEC's case "wholly lacks merit" and vowed to litigate the matter. Kane didn't immediately respond to a request for comment and attempts to locate contact information for Ostern were unsuccessful. Without admitting or denying the SEC's allegations, Ostern, the Moonwalkers CEO, agreed to pay back around $40,000 in ill-gotten gains and a fine to be determined later by the court, the SEC said. In a filing in federal court in Manhattan, the SEC also sought a series of penalties against Hydrogen and Kane. Wall Street's main regulator has long asserted that many virtual tokens are securities and under its jurisdiction, but crypto firms and promoters have sought ways to distribute coins outside of traditional financial offerings. Airdrops, where tokens are given out to users and developers for continued participation in a project for free, have become an increasingly popular method.

Powell: Stablecoin regulation belongs to the Fed -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said stablecoins are a type of private money and need to be regulated as such.During a panel discussion about digital asset regulation hosted by the Banque de France on Tuesday morning, Powell said stablecoins are only as stable as the fiat currency to which they are pegged. In the case of dollar-denominated stablecoins, that leads back to the Fed. "The central bank is and will always be the main source of trust behind money. Stablecoins essentially borrow that trust from the underlying issuer, and in many cases, these are dollar stablecoins, so they're really borrowing that trust," he said. "These are private forms of money. They will be subjected to runs if their reserves are not full of very high-quality assets, so there's a regulatory job to be done there." Because these assets are being used in transactions across the country — and, in many cases, across borders — it should be the Fed's duty to supervise these issuers, Powells said. "I would liken it to what happens with the dual banking system here where there's a very important role for state regulators but … for any commercial bank in the United States there's also a role in licensing that bank to operate at the Fed or another federal agency," he said. "In the case of this, which is money creation, we think it really should be the Fed that does play that role."Powell participated virtually in the panel discussion, which was part of the Banque de France's conference on the opportunities and challenges of tokenized finance. Christine Lagard, president of the European Central Bank, Augustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, and Ravi Menon, managing director for the Monetary Authority of Singapore, also participated in the event. During the hourlong conversation, Powell noted that investments in stablecoins behave like money market funds in some ways and deposits in others, both of which are heavily regulated by the Fed. Still, because stablecoins are public-facing and could be perceived to be public money, specific regulatory frameworks are appropriate, he said.

SEC Alleges Market Manipulation, Charges 3 Men With Fraud, In $100 Million New Jersey Deli Scheme -Back in April of 2021, we highlighted when fund manager David Einhorn pointed out a single New Jersey deli that was trading with an insane market cap of over $100 million as one of the hallmarks of the bubble the market was in. Einhorn wrote:"Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September. HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious."And now, so goes the bubble, so goes the deli...The Securities and Exchange Commission has officially put the kibosh on the fairly obvious scam, suing the deli and its related personnel for fraud in what is being called the "$100 million New Jersey deli scheme" by CNBC. Several men were charged with 12 counts of fraud, including conspiracy to commit securities fraud, securities fraud and conspiracy to manipulate securities prices, the report said. The men appeared in a North Carolina court this week and are expected in New Jersey federal court at a later date.

Madoff victims to get $372 million in new payments from DOJ fund - Victims of Bernard Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme will soon get another $372 million in payouts, bringing the total amount distributed from a government fund to more than $4 billion since the collapse of the fraudster's company in 2008.The eighth payment so far from the U.S. Justice Department's Madoff Victim Fund will go out to about 40,000 victims worldwide, and will increase the total recovery from all sources of compensation to 88% of losses, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan said Wednesday in a statement. The money was raised through government settlements with Madoff's bank, JPMorgan Chase, as well as some of his oldest customers, such as investor Jeffry Picower, who died in 2009, according to the statement. Madoff died last year in prison, where he was serving a 150-year prison term."This office continues its historic work seeking justice for the victims of Madoff's heinous crimes," U.S. Attorney for Manhattan Damian Williams said in the statement. "But our work is not fully complete, and this Office's tireless commitment to compensating the victims who suffered as a result of Madoff's crimes continues."The U.S. fund is separate from the repayment process being overseen by a trustee, Irving Picard, in federal bankruptcy court in Manhattan. His litigation against customers who profited from the scam has so far recovered more than $14.5 billion, most of which as already been returned to victims.

Judge reverses Trump-era HMDA rule, forcing small mortgage lenders to comply - In a blow to small community banks, a federal judge reversed a rule enacted by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under the Trump administration that relieved thousands of lenders from reporting data on home mortgages that is used to enforce anti-discrimination laws. Chief District Court Judge Beryl Howell of the federal District Court in Washington last week vacated a 2020 rule issued by former CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger. Judge Howell called the rule that eased reporting requirements under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act "arbitrary" and "capricious," in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act. Under the APA, federal agencies are required to engage in reasoned decision making and to provide a reasonable explanation for changing rules. The judge ruled that the CFPB overstated the costs to lenders of complying with HMDA reporting requirements for home loans. The bureau did not adequately take into account the negative impact that the loss of the data from 1,700 financial institutions would have on communities, particularly rural and low-income areas, the judge found. "It's a very big deal to the hundreds of small lenders that received an exemption and now will need to report," said Warren Traiger, senior counsel at the Buckley law firm. The 2020 rule significantly reduced the portion of lenders required to report data on home loan applicants from 43% to 27%, and for those issuing home equity lines of credit from 15% to 9%. The judge stated in a 67-page memo that the "CFPB's decision to essentially undo Congress's carefully selected balance with blanket exceptions for this share of the lending market without explanation is arbitrary and capricious." Consumer advocates that sued the CFPB two months after it issued the 2020 rule declared victory. Advocates claimed that HMDA data is invaluable in uncovering and addressing redlining and fair lending violations. "It's really important that we have well-substantiated rules that can stand the test of time, whatever administration is in power," said Brad Blower, general counsel at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, one of five nonprofits that sued the CFPB. The other plaintiffs were Montana Fair Housing, Texas Low Income Housing Information Service, Empire Justice Center and the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development. The 2020 rule issued under Kraninger raised the threshold for reporting HMDA data to 100 closed-end home loans, up from 25. However, the judge did not make a change to the threshold for open-end loans, or home equity lines of credit, which was increased under the 2020 rule to 200 from 100. In a partial victory for the CFPB, Howell found that the bureau did not exceed its statutory authority in issuing the rule because Congress gave the agency broad discretion to create exceptions to the reporting requirements. The CFPB said it is reviewing the decision but had no further comment on whether it planned to appeal.

Federal Home Loan banks should include nonbank lenders, advocates say -The Federal Home Loan Bank System must do more to address the affordable housing crisis and should consider allowing nonbank mortgage lenders to become members, housing experts said Thursday at a listening session hosted by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. FHFA Director Sandra Thompson has initiated a comprehensive review of the system — the first in the Home Loan banks' 100-year history. But she cautioned that the FHFA remains in listening mode and plans to host regional roundtable discussions this fall to hear from stakeholders. Interest in the review has been so high that the FHFA extended its listening sessions to three days, up from two. "It's been a very long time since we've had a thorough look at the mission of the Home Loan banks," Thompson said in opening remarks. "There is more that the banks can and should do." The agency is looking at the banks' operations and mission to determine if it is meeting the goals set by Congress in 1932 when the system was created during the Depression to provide liquidity and spur homeownership. "No decisions have been made," Thompson added. "We're here to map the future of the banks, not to announce it." Bank trade groups and some Home Loan bank members suggested that the system is working well and that nothing should change. But many other housing experts said far more needs to be done to address the affordable housing crisis. Over the three-and-a-half-hour session, many of the nearly three dozen speakers criticized the banks' Affordable Housing Program, or AHP. In 2021, the Home Loan banks provided $352 million to the program, which some experts said was a drop in the bucket compared to what is needed. "The level of investment of the AHP program is not impacting affordable housing efforts," said Marty Miller, executive director of the Office of Rural and Farmworker Housing in Yakima, Washington. Reporting requirements for the AHP program are onerous, Miller said, and the amount of money provided for housing projects has not kept pace with construction costs and typically averages just 5% of a development's costs. "The FHLBs' priority is to remain in the good graces of FHFA, which can discourage innovation," Miller added.

Letter to the editor: Calabria is wrong on GSE support of single-family rentals | American Banker -- Comments by former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria, in the recent American Banker article "Calabria: FHFA is making housing less affordable by backing investors," reflect an incomplete understanding of the role single-family rental homes play in today's housing market.Much of the data Calabria cites in suggesting investors are somehow contributing to a "spiraling housing affordability crisis" is either out of context or factually incorrect. Freddie Mac research has shown investor activity in the housing market has had, at most, only a nominal impact on the cost of housing, and that the real drivers of home price appreciation have significantly more to do with a supply-demand imbalance of nearly historical proportions. Freddie's research makes clear investor purchases "are only modestly elevated and are of secondary importance to first-time homebuyers." This may be because, per the research, "institutional and small investors both heavily target under-market-value homes that need more repair than what most first-time homebuyers are willing to invest."Calabria's references to the outsize impact of institutional owners in the housing market are also not supported by any reasonable view of the data. Rather, large companies own less than 1.5% of the 23 million properties that make up the market for single-family rental homes and only 0.2% of the nation's total housing inventory. Further, according to National Rental Home Council (NRHC) data, member companies do not own more than 1% of the housing in any individual state, a point contained in the Freddie study which concluded that corporate owners "remain so small that their market share only has a modest impact on the overall percentage of investors."Regarding the impact of investors on first-time homebuyers and homeownership, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found in a 2022 report: "Millennials now make up 43% of homebuyers — the most of any generation — an increase from 37% over the previous year." The report also found homebuying among younger generations is on the rise, with 4 out of 5 younger millennial homebuyers purchasing for the first time. This has no doubt contributed to increasing rates of homeownership in many markets where NRHC member companies have higher concentrations of properties. Charlotte, North Carolina, for example, has seen the rate of homeownership across the metro area increase from 65% to 75.5% between the first quarters of 2017 and 2022; the rate in Atlanta during that period has increased from 64.4% to 67.6%; Nashville from 71.1% to 75.2%; and Phoenix from 62.7% to 67.2%.Finally, Calabria and others who see investors as simply indiscriminate buyers of properties far and wide miss the many benefits that owners, particularly institutions, contribute to the rental housing market. Single-family rental home companies are investing in local staff, hiring local contractors and business partners, and bringing property management expertise to local housing markets all to ensure a positive experience for residents and families who choose a single-family rental home lifestyle. NRHC member companies invested nearly $2 billion in home renovations, upgrades and other property-level operations in 2021, and each of NRHC's five largest member companies maintain an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau. Many NRHC member companies support residents pursuing homeownership opportunities by reporting on-time rent payments to credit agencies and providing access to financial literacy programs. For many residents who choose a single-family rental home experience, renting is merely a step along the pathway to homeownership. By supporting residents on that journey, the agencies overseen by the FHFA are opening the opportunities of homeownership to untold numbers of American families. -- David Howard, Executive Director, National Rental Home Council

Fed proposes permanent extension of real estate debt leniency - The Federal Reserve wants lenders to remain patient with commercial real estate borrowers that struggle to service their debts. In a policy statement proposed this week, Fed staffers petitioned the Board of Governors to make a series of tweaks to its supervisory policies that would allow financial institutions to accommodate delinquent real estate borrowers and restructure troubled loans without being penalized. This leniency would be applied even when collateral values fall below loan balances — a phenomenon often referred to as being "underwater." The policy would remain in effect "through all economic cycles," effectively extending the Fed's "work with your borrower" policy permanently. Fed staffers noted a timely need for updating and solidifying these policies given upcoming expiration of COVID-era accommodations. They also pointed to ongoing uncertainty in many cities where employers are struggling to attract workers back to their offices. A May report from the Fed on economic indicators found that as of late 2021, 22% of workers still worked from home, down from the 29% seen in 2020, but up significantly from the 7% who did so in 2019. Just this week, General Motors walked back plans to implement a mandatory three-day-a-week in-office policy for its white-collar workers in the face of significant employee pushback. Like other companies, the automaker adopted a lenient remote work policy in the spring of 2020. Tech companies like Google have run into similar problems as they attempt to bring their workforces back in person. In response to this trend, many companies are choosing to reduce their real estate footprints rather than continue paying for unused space. More than half of the 185 employers surveyed by the commercial real estate firm CBRE earlier this year said they planned to cut their office space in the coming three years. Other challenges that could affect commercial real estate borrowers — particularly those financing new developments or major renovations — include ongoing supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and rising interest rates.

NYC Office Space Glut Made Worse By Remote Work As Older Towers Face High Vacancy -- Is New York City's central business district finally recovering after Covid-19? The simple answer is no. Although residential rents in Manhattan were inflated to record highs, the rise of remote work quelled any recovery for the office space market in the borough. Bloomberg reported blocks of decades-old office buildings sitting partially empty are becoming a multibillion-dollar problem for building owners. Even though Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and other Wall Street firms have pushed for a return to the office after the Labor Day holiday, NYC's office-occupancy trends are still below half, according to card-swipe data provided by Kastle Systems. Office vacancy rates have skyrocketed in NYC and other major cities worldwide, though it appears the US will have a slower office-market recovery -- this is likely due to persisting remote working trends. Columbia University and New York University released a report that found remote work trends could force companies to reduce office space. They said lower tenant demand could result in a 28%, or $456 billion loss in the value of offices across the US. About 10% of that comes from NYC. Partially empty office towers are leading to slower economic recovery in NYC. Many buildings with high vacancy rates were constructed between 1950-80 and had no meaningful upgrades. The area is clustered with buildings from the 1950s to 1980s, many of which haven't been meaningfully upgraded in decades. The few that have been renovated struggle to compete with counterparts in tonier addresses on Park, Fifth and Madison avenues and new mega-developments on Manhattan's far west side. The Third Avenue buildings have become "leave-behind space" rather than the types of offices that attract world-class tenants, said Nick Farmakis, vice chairman at Savills. -- Bloomberg The picture remains cloudy for NYC because converting office space buildings to residential is challenging and expensive. Manhattan has had some conversions, but owners and developers are met with many challenges of zoning and architectural restrictions. "The problem with Midtown is a lot of buildings need air and lights that the city requires, and you don't always get that," said Ran Eliasaf, founder and managing partner of investment firm Northwind Group, which is exploring residential conversions in the city. "Not every Class B building is an ideal target for conversion." Older buildings are also being left behind as businesses desire newer ones or relocate out of the city. This leaves NYC with a rising number of older office buildings with high vacancy rates and has begun to impact how much property taxes the city brings in.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in August --Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.70%, down from 0.73% July. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.62% in August 2021. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed. The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back.

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in August -- Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.72% in August from 0.76% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.79% in August 2021. This is almost back to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.48% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.60% in July). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.95% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.11%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.57% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.60%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years. Mortgages in forbearance were counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they were not reported to the credit bureaus.

 30-Year US Mortgage Rises Above 7% For The First Time Since 2000; Fastest Surge In History - (graphs) Less than two weeks ago we cited Freddie Mac according to which the average 30 year US mortgage just rose above 6% for the first time since 2008, with real-estate brokerage Redfin commemorating the move by saying that "This Is The Sharpest Turn In The Housing Market Since The 2008 Crash." Well, just a few days later, Jeff Gundlach was so kind to point out this evening... That was quick. The National Average 30 Year Mortgage Rate posted at 7.08% today. ...that the national average 30 year mortgage rate just soared above 7.0%, hitting 7.08% and the highest since December 11, 2000. This was the fastest 1% increase in mortgage rates in history; and the fact that it took place inside of a month is even more remarkable. There is nothing we can add here that isn't self-explanatory, and that we haven't said already, like for example the fastest ever collapse in YoY Case-Shiller prices, as well as the first sequential drop in 112 years... ... not to mention that the typical home now sells for less than the asking price... ... but what is perhaps most remarkable is that according to the Altanta Fed, as of a few weeks ago, the median American household would needed to spend 44.5% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home in the US, the highest percentage on record with data going back to 2006. Well, as of today, that number is just over 50%. That's right: more than half of the average US household's income goes to paying housing payments, nearly double what this number was just two years ago.That such a move can't end in anything but tears is obvious to everyone... but the Fed, which still thinks it can somehow avoid the most destructive of hard landings.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued its Deceleration" to 15.8% year-over-year increase in July - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued its Deceleration in July: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.9%, down from 17.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% in the previous month. Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July. Tampa led the way with a 31.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami in second with a 31.7% increase, and Dallas in third with a 24.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending July 2022 versus the year ending June 2022. ... Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.8%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively. In July, only 7 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments. “Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index. We saw similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 14.9% in July vs. 17.4% in June) and our 20-City Composite (up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June). On a month over-month basis, all three composites declined in July" The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Housing Bubble Has Officially Burst : Case-Shiller Records First Drop In Home Prices Since 2012 - Analysts expected Case-Shiller Home Price growth to continue its modest deceleration in August (the latest available data in this heavily lagged and smoothed data set), but the result was a doozy: the 20-City Composite index tumbled 0.44% MoM, far below the 0.20% expected increase, and a sharp decline from the downward revised 0.19% increase in July; more importantly, this was the first sequential drop in home prices tracked by Case-Shiller since March 2012, or ten and a half years. On a Y/Y basis, home prices rose just 16.06%, down from 18.66% YoY in July, and missing expectations of a 17.1% increase. The headline national average price index rose 15.77% YoY in August. Comments confirmed that the mood is dismal and turning uglier by the day: “Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index. We saw similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 14.9% in July vs. 17.4% in June) and our 20-City Composite (up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June). On a month-over-month basis, all three composites declined in July." “The theme of strong but decelerating prices was reflected across all 20 cities. July’s year-over-year price change was positive for each one of the 20 cities, with a median gain of 15.0%, but in every case July’s gain was less than June’s. Prices declined in 12 cities on a month-to-month basis. Tampa (+31.8%) narrowly edged Miami (+31.7%) to remain at the top of the league table for the fifth consecutive month, with Dallas (+24.7%) holding on to third place. As has been the case for the last several months, price growth was strongest in the Southeast (+27.5%) and South (+26.9%). Lazzara concluded by noting that “as the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.” Finally, we note that drops such as this are absolutely critical to avoid a total implosion in the housing sector, whose affordability just hit a record low last month, but managed to rebound modestly in July, as a result of dropping prices. That said, prices will have to drop by a lot more if housing is again to become affordable to ordinary Americans.

Goldman Sees US House Prices Falling 5% to 10% - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Goldman See US House Prices Falling 5% to 10%. Excerpt: The recent weakness in the housing market, combined with mortgage rates close to 7%, have led to some downwards revisions to house price forecasts. For example, from Goldman Sachs economists today: Our G10 home price model suggests sizable nominal home prices declines from the peak of around 15% in Canada, 5-10% in the US, and under 5% in the UK. … We view the risks to these estimates as tilted to the downside. This is a significant downgrade from Goldman’s “stall” forecast from just a few weeks ago. ... It now appears house prices are falling even though inventory levels are still historically fairly low (by measures of active inventory or months of supply). ... Here is a look at existing home months-of-supply (inverted, from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through July 2022). Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.The last three months are in black showing a possible shift in the relationship.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 29% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 10% - Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 24, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, and improved 29% above one year ago. Financial conditions are changing the balance of sellers and buyers in the housing market with more homes for-sale compared to one year ago. Still, the market is still not back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 10% from one year ago. This week marks the twelfth straight week of year over year declines in the number of new listings coming up for sale. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July. However, the Realtor.com data has been stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 13 weeks in a row. This is due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales have fallen sharply.

Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through August 2022 (Apartment List through September 2022). Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up. ... The Zillow measure is up 12.3% YoY in August, down from 13.8% YoY in July. This is down from a peak of 17.2% YoY in February. The ApartmentList measure is up 7.5% YoY as of September, down from 9.8% in August. This is down from the peak of 18.0% YoY last November. Rents are still increasing, and we should expect this to continue to spill over into measures of inflation. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 6.3% YoY in August, from 5.8% YoY in July - and will likely increase further in the coming months. ... My suspicion is rent increases will slow further over the coming months as the pace of household formation slows, and more supply comes on the market.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 2.0% in August --From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.0% in August - Pending home sales sagged for the third straight month in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major regions experienced month-over-month decreases in transactions, however, the West saw a modest gain. Year-over-year, all four regions posted double-digit declines. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.0% to 88.4 in August. Year-over-year, pending transactions dwindled by 24.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. "The direction of mortgage rates – upward or downward – is the prime mover for home buying, and decade-high rates have deeply cut into contract signings," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "If mortgage rates moderate and the economy continues adding jobs, then home buying should also stabilize." ... The Northeast PHSI decreased 3.4% from last month to 76.6, down 19.0% from August 2021. The Midwest index fell 5.2% to 88.4 in August, a 21.1% drop from the previous year. The South PHSI slid 0.9% to 105.4 in August, a decline of 24.2% from a year ago. The West index rose by 1.4% in August to 71.0, down 31.3% from August 2021. This was a larger decline than expected for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in September and October.

 New Home Sales and Cancellations: Net vs Gross Sales - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales and Cancellations: Net vs Gross Sales. A brief excerpt: Tomorrow (Tuesday), the Census Bureau will report new home sales for August. The consensus is for 500 thousand on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual rates (SAAR) basis, down from 511 thousand in July....When looking at new home sales, we are interested in net sales for each month, however the Census Bureau reports gross new sales. A simple equation would be: Sales (net) = Sales (gross) – Cancellations + Sales of earlier cancellations.In the long run, the cancellation terms balance out, and the Census Bureau numbers are what we want. In other words, Sales(net) = sales(gross). But in the short run, when cancellations increase, the Census Bureau overestimates sales; and when cancellations decrease, the Census Bureau underestimates sales....The bottom line is - with rapidly rising cancellations - the Census Bureau will overestimate sales tomorrow (and underestimate new home inventory).There is much more in the article.

New Home Sales Increase to 685,000 Annual Rate in August --The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined.Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 28.8 percent above the revised July rate of 532,000, but is 0.1 percent below the August 2021 estimate of 686,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are now at pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in August to 8.1 months from 10.4 months in July. The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal). "The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 461,000. This represents a supply of 8.1 months at the current sales rate."The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In August 2022 (red column), 55 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in August. The all-time high for August was 110 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for August was 23 thousand in 2010. This was well above expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined.

New Home Sales Unexpectedly Soar With Second Biggest Increase On Record - After last month's jarring 12.6% tumble, which sent the SAAR to the lowest level since Jan 2016, US new home sales were expected to slide again if at a far more moderate pace: instead, we got another shocker because just minutes after Case-Shiller confirmed the first sequential drop in US home prices since 2012, the Census Bureau reported that in August, new homes unexpectedly soared by 28.8% - the 2nd biggest monthly increase on record (only behind the 30.6% spike in June 2020) smashing expectations of a -2.2% drop, and a massive reversal from last month's upward revised -8.6% drop. And so after 6 declines in the past 7 months, the actual SAAR number of new home sales exploded higher from 532K, the lowest in six years, to 685K, the highest since March! Thanks to the unexpected surge in sales, the supply of new homes - which last month hit the highest since 2009 - collapse by more than 2 months, to just 8.1 months of supply. And as one would expect, the surge in sales took place as both Median and Average new home sales prices dipped, if just modestly. After hitting a record high of $466,300 just last month, the median new home price slumped 6.3% to $436,800 which still is one of the highest prices on record. While the surge in new home sales is likely a delayed aftereffect of yields which dropped in the late summer and have since exploded to the highest level in a decade - which likely assures that next month we may well see the biggest drop in new home sales on record - the Fed will not be happy to see this latest surge in new home sales which will be a sign that even more tightening is required.

 New Home Sales Increased in August; Completed Inventory Increased --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increased in August; Completed Inventory Increased - Brief excerpt: The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate. There are 0.86 months of completed supply (red line). This is about 60% of the normal level. The inventory of new homes under construction is at 5.36 months (blue line). This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. And a record 106 thousand homes have not been started - about 1.86 months of supply (grey line) - about double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand. ... First, as I discussed yesterday, the Census Bureau overestimates sales, and underestimates inventory when cancellation rates are rising, see: New Home Sales and Cancellations: Net vs Gross Sales. So, take the headline sales number with a large grain of salt - the actual negative impact on the homebuilders is greater than the headline number suggests! There are a large number of homes under construction, and this suggests we will see a sharp increase in completed inventory over the next several months - and that will put pressure on new home prices.

Las Vegas August 2022: Visitor Traffic Down 10.9% Compared to 2019 --Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions). From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: August 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: August visitation reached nearly 3.2M visitors for the month, up +6.4% YoY and ‐10.9% below the August 2019 volume. Overall hotel occupancy reached 76.8%, +4.0 pts ahead of last August but down ‐10.9 pts vs. August 2019. Surpassing 90% for the sixth straight month, Weekend occupancy reached 90.1% (up +3.0 pts YoY but down ‐5.1 pts vs. August 2019), while Midweek occupancy came in at 72.2% (up +4.4 pts YoY but down ‐11.9 pts vs. August 2019). The trend of strong ADR continued as August ADR exceeded $148, +5.5% ahead of last August and 22.4% above August 2019 while RevPAR neared $114 for the month, +11.3% YoY and +7.2% over August 2019.The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red) Visitor traffic was down 10.9% compared to the same month in 2019. Visitor traffic was up 6.4% compared to last August. The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was down 38.2% compared to August 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

Consumer debt hits record for most Americans, except the wealthy - Most Americans are more indebted than ever, underscoring a persistent and widening wealth divide in the U.S. Consumer debt, including credit cards, rose to an all-time high for the 118 million U.S. households among the bottom 90%, according to the Federal Reserve's latest data on the distribution of household wealth. The group's debt soared by $300 billion over the last year — the largest annual gain on record — as households deal with higher prices for everything from food to clothing and rents.Meanwhile, consumer debt among the top 10% of households is virtually unchanged over the past year, the Fed's data show. Inflation is running near a 40-year high, forcing many households to load up on credit cards or dip into savings to make ends meet. Lower-income families spend a greater share of their earnings on necessities like groceries and gas, so higher prices can afflict those households much more so than wealthier ones, said Paige Ouimet, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina's Kenan-Flagler Business School. "If your costs are rising and your wages are not picking up, how are people going to fill that gap? Without substantial savings to draw from, it's going to have to come from debt," she said. The Fed data show that consumer liabilities increased to $4.22 trillion in the second quarter of this year for the bottom 90%. As the central bank continues to push interest rates higher to tame inflation, that'll translate to higher costs for consumers to service their debt. Credit card interest rates for new accounts have risen above 20% for those with "good" or "fair" credit, according to WalletHub, an online personal finance data firm. Since the pandemic, higher-income consumers in particular have seen checkable deposits and currency holdings soar, allowing them to better manage liabilities. But Americans in the bottom half saw cash holdings peak in the first quarter of the year, taking the savings rate down to the lowest since 2009.

 29% Of Americans Now Drawing From Their Savings "More Than Usual", New Survey Shows - New data out last week in the latest Forbes Advisor-Ipsos Consumer Confidence Weekly Tracker had shed some light on just how much Americans have been dipping into their savings as economic conditions worsen in the country. While the survey showed that economic sentiment amongst Americans is unchanged, it still sits at levels that are "significantly lower than it did to start the year", the report says. While some indices contained in the survey pertaining to investments, expectations and jobs remain relatively stable (expectations declined slightly), it's of note that the survey showed "a significant increase in the number of Americans who are withdrawing from their savings more than usual and investing or saving money less than usual."Overall confidence still remains 3.4 points below the pandemic average, the report showed. The expectations sub-index, mentioned above, is down 0.7 points from two weeks ago and sitting "below its pandemic and historical averages, as well as its pre-pandemic reading". The report also notes that "for the third time in four months, the amount that draw from their savings more than usual outnumbers those who do so less than usual.""Americans who do report a change are exercising caution. Those who say they spend money, borrow money/use credit, invest/save money, and pay off their loans/credit more than usual are outnumbered by those who say they do these things less than usual," the report says. Additionally, there has been an increase in the number of people who said they are saving less than usual (up 8 points to 46%). The report indicates that there has been an "increase in the percentage of those saying they are now drawing from their savings more than usual" (up 8 points to 29%). This number marks its highest point since tracking the data started)The results were based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted September 19 – 20, 2022 with a sample of 942 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English, the report said. You can view the survey's full results and examine the questions used to conduct the research at this link.

Personal Income increased 0.3% in August; Spending increased 0.4% -- The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update report: Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent) in August, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $67.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $67.5 billion (0.4 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.2 percent and services increased 0.2 percent.The August PCE price index increased 6.2 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 6.4 percent YoY in July. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.9 percent YoY, up from 4.7% in July. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was at expectations, and PCE was above expectations. Inflation was slightly higher than expected. Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 0.8% annual rate in Q3 2022. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 0.9%)

August personal income and spending: major downward revisions overwhelm modestly positive monthly grains - This morning’s personal income and spending report for August was positive month over month both in nominal and real terms, but the major story was in the revisions. Personal spending is the essentially the opposite side of the transaction of retail sales. Both have been tracking relatively closely since the end of the stimulus-fueled spring spending spurge of 2021, as shown in the m/m% changes below: Real personal spending was up +0.1% in August, compared with +0.2% for real sales. So far, so good. But as you can see from the above graph, real personal spending has all but stalled since April. Compared with the average spending in Q2, the first two months of Q3 are only up +0.1% - which while positive is seriously weak. Real personal income also increased less than +0.1%, rounding down to unchanged. Since May 2021, real spending has increased +2.8%, but real personal income is *down* -2.2%: This reflects a major downward revision in income for the past year. Here’s last month’s graph, showing real personal income only down -1.0% since May 2021: With this revision, we just got a big part of the explanation for why consumer confidence (and President Biden’s approval ratings) took such a hit earlier this year. The same revision seriously affected the personal saving rate, which was unchanged for the month at 3.5% (shown as zero in the graph below for better historical comparison): As revised, the saving rate has been close to all time lows for most of this year. Only 2005-08 were lower. Here’s the same graph from one month ago, showing July’s saving rate as 5.0%, generally equivalent to the early 2000s: But no more! Usually the personal saving rate declines progressively during expansions, leaving consumers more and more vulnerable to negative shocks. With the revisions to the past year’s data, we are very much in that territory. If there is , e.g., another gas price spike, consumers’ luck will probably run out.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Creeps Up in August - With the release of this morning's report on August's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.33% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.05% when we adjust for inflation. This is generally a decrease from last month's 0.31% nominal and 0.42% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 1.19% nominal and -4.76% real. Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 119% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 36.8%.

Key diesel prices down to levels not seen since March - On Monday, two key diesel prices fell to levels last posted in March. The weekly average retail diesel price from the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration fell for the 13th time in 14 weeks, posted at $4.889 a gallon, a decline of 7.5 cents a gallon. It’s the lowest posting for the benchmark price used for most fuel surcharges since a price of $4.849 a gallon on March 7. That was a 40.1-cent increase that week, following an increase of almost 75 cents the week before as the Russian invasion of Ukraine was swinging into full force. That shows that the retail price in the U.S. still has a long way to fall before it gets to prewar levels. The latest price puts the DOE/EIA diesel price on track to soon be down a full dollar per gallon from its all-time high. That was $5.81 on June 20, which was the price posted before the stretch of 13 declines in 14 weeks. The second price that hit March levels Monday was the ultra low sulfur diesel price on the CME commodity exchange. It declined 10.8 cents to settle at $3.1291 a gallon, for a two-day decline of 28.24 cents. The settlement Monday was the lowest on CME since a March 16 settlement of $3.1001 a gallon. Prices soared the next day in reaction to the already ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Prices continue to be pressured by several factors, including the still-soaring dollar. There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and commodity prices based in dollars, which in international markets is most of them.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Edge Slightly Lower For Second Straight Month - - A report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed a modest decrease in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of August. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders slipped by 0.2 percent in August after edging down by 0.1 percent in July. Economists had expected durable goods orders to decline by 0.4 percent. The modest decreases seen in July and August came after durable goods orders spiked by 2.3 percent in June. The continued dip by durable goods orders was largely due to a steep drop in orders for transportation equipment, which tumbled by 1.1 percent in August after sliding by 0.7 percent in July. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way lower, plummeting by 18.5 percent in August after soaring by 12.1 percent in July. Excluding the decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders inched up by 0.2 percent in August, matching the uptick seen in July as well as economist estimates. The report showed notable increases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components and computers and electronic products. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business spending, jumped by 1.3 percent in August after climbing by 0.7 percent in July. The Commerce Department also said shipments in the same category, which is the source data for equipment investment in GDP, rose by 0.3 percent in August following a 0.6 percent increase in July. "Looking ahead, a dwindling pipeline will offer a minimal growth impulse for manufacturing activity heading into 2023," said Oren Klachkin, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics. He added, 'Right now manufacturing carries enough momentum to withstand stress from downward pressures, but the confluence of highly elevated inflation, higher interest rates, weakening demand and downbeat sentiment will cause durable goods activity to struggle next year."

September Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP. The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. The latest average of the five for September is -5.5, up from the previous month.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 193,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending September 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 193,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 213,000 to 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,000 from 216,750 to 215,750.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

 Locomotive machinists, mechanics reach new deal with railroads - The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District 19 has reached a new tentative agreement with the group representing the freight railroads in contract negotiations. This agreement tweaks one that IAM rejected earlier this month. IAM represents locomotive machinists, track equipment mechanics and facility maintenance personnel at the freight railroads represented by the National Carriers Conference Committee (NCCC). “Throughout this process of seeking a new contract, you have stood strong and demanded the fair treatment you deserve from the carriers,” IAM said in a Tuesday notice to members. “Your solidarity and strength have made national headlines and, most importantly, given your District 19 negotiating team the power we need at the negotiating table to make the carriers listen to your needs.” According to IAM, highlights of the agreement include a cap on health care costs; codified language regarding travel costs for roadway mechanics; further bargaining over travel expenses and per diem; and plans to conduct a joint study on overtime, forced overtime policies and overtime meal options. The new agreement also includes other provisions from the original one, including a 24% compounded general wage increase, a $5,000 service recognition bonus and full retroactive pay, among other provisions. The new agreement also has a “me-too” clause in which IAM rail division members could receive the same terms that another union might secure in its agreement. IAM will send the agreement to its nearly 5,000 members for approval. A cooling-off period during which members cannot legally strike will be in effect through Dec. 9, and “in the meantime, we continue to work with coalition partners to secure the best deal possible.” The December date also puts IAM District 19 members back on schedule with many other rail unions, IAM said.

 Smith & Wesson sued over link to July 4 parade mass shooting - — Survivors of the mass shooting at a suburban Chicago Independence Day parade and family members of those killed filed 11 lawsuits Wednesday against the manufacturer of the rifle used in the attack, accusing gun-maker Smith & Wesson of illegally targeting its ads at young men at risk of committing mass violence. The sweeping effort by dozens of victims of the Highland Park shooting, anti-gun violence advocates and private attorneys announced Wednesday is the latest bid to hold gun manufacturers accountable for a mass killing despite broad protections for the industry in federal law.The group’s strategy mirrors the approach used by relatives of victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook school killings, who in February reached a $73 million settlement with the firearm company that produced the rifle used in that attack. That was believed to be the largest payment by a gun-maker related to a mass killing and hinged on the families’ accusation that Remington violated Connecticut consumer protection law by marketing its AR-15-style weapons to young men already at risk of committing violence.“The shooter did not act on his own,” said Alla Lefkowitz, senior director of affirmative litigation for the gun safety organization Everytown. “What happened in Highland Park on July 4 was the result of deliberate choices made by certain members of the industry.”Liz Turnipseed is among the Highland Park survivors alleging that the gun manufacturer, the accused shooter, his father and two gun sellers bear some responsibility for the attack. In an interview with The Associated Press this week, Turnipseed said before the shots rang out she was enjoying the parade with her husband and 3-year-old daughter, pointing out instruments in the high school band. Turnipseed fell to the ground after being shot in the pelvis and remembers seeing her daughter’s stroller on its side and asking her husband to get their daughter to safety. Turnipseed said she required weeks of intense wound care, expects to need a cane for some time and is in therapy for post-traumatic stress disorder. Despite her physical and emotional burdens, the Highland Park resident became determined to speak for those who did not survive mass shootings in the U.S., particularly the 19 children and two teachers killed at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, in late May.

Many U.S. veterans land behind bars. A unique new law may change that. - Tony Miller killed countless enemy forces while deployed in Iraq, where his Army unit captured so many high-value targets that they received a valor award.“Violence was good,” said Miller, a paratrooper, who was sent back to Iraq just 17 days after returning home from his first deployment. “Violence was rewarded.” But once he left the military in 2008, Miller's aggression was no longer an asset, and he was consumed by anger, exacerbated by untreated post-traumatic stress disorder. He was charged with second-degree assault with a firearm in 2014 and convicted soon after of felony drug possession — the consequences of which threatened to permanently derail any chance he had of resuming a productive life as a civilian.In an alarming statistic, roughly one-third of U.S. military veterans say they have been arrested and jailed at least once in their lives, compared to fewer than one-fifth of civilians, a report released last month by the Council on Criminal Justice found. The nonpartisan think tank cited service-related trauma, including PTSD, and substance abuse issues as some of the driving factors. Now, advocates say, a unique, new Minnesota law may turn the tide at a critical point for millions of post-9/11 veterans, as many struggle to put the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War, the nation’s longest war, behind them.Last August, Minnesota became the first state to allow veterans with service-related trauma to avoid serving time for certain crimes, while ensuring a conviction does not stain their record. The Veterans Restorative Justice Act is not a get-out-of-jail-free card, and the measure does not show leniency to serious violent crimes, such as murder and manslaughter. But supporters say it is a compassionate way to hold veterans accountable for many less-severe cases, including theft and DWI, while treating underlying issues, such as PTSD.“Some of those emotions are really raw,” said Miller, 39, who lives in Farmington, Minnesota, with his wife and dogs.The worst of Miller’s memories crop up during mundane moments. Vivid details of the first man he fatally shot at close range, and the body of a young child shredded by a rocket-propelled grenade, flash in his mind sometimes when he’s waiting at a traffic light or when he’s taking a shower.“Some of that stuff is just never going to go away,” he said.

Virginia students begin walkouts over Youngkin transgender policy – Thousands of Virginia students walked out of their classrooms Tuesday to protest Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) proposed model transgender policies that would restrict which restrooms the state’s transgender students are allowed to use and would require parents to consent to their child changing their name or pronouns at school.The draft policies published earlier this month have been criticized for singling out transgender youth, who are already more likely than lesbian, gay and bisexual young people to report poor mental health and less likely to identify their home or school as a gender-affirming space.Several Virginia school districts have released statements voicing concerns about the new model policies and have promised to protect transgender students through enforcement of existing nondiscrimination laws. Students from more than 100 Virginia schools last week announced plans to walk out of class Tuesday morning through the afternoon to protest the policies.“We decided to hold these walkouts as kind of a way to … disrupt schools and essentially have students be aware of what’s going on,” Natasha Sanghvi, a northern Virginia high school senior who helped organize the walkouts, told the Associated Press on Tuesday.The new model policies would replace existing measures adopted by former Gov. Ralph Northam’s administration that allow transgender students to use school facilities like restrooms or locker rooms consistent with their gender identity and requires teachers to accept a transgender student’s name and pronouns even without consent from the student’s family.Sanghvi told the AP that the current policies have helped students across Virginia feel affirmed in their gender identities at school, and repealing them would have the potential to harm “every single queer student in the state of Virginia.”Footage captured by other outlets show crowds of students protesting across northern Virginia, the Richmond and Hampton Roads regions and several smaller districts in rural areas of the state. Some students waved Progress Pride flags and homemade signs supporting transgender rights.In a statement to Changing America, Macaulay Porter, a spokeswoman for Youngkin, said under the proposed guidelines, Virginia schools will be able to accommodate the requests of children and their families. but only when parents are part of the process.The current policies from Northam’s administration have drawn criticism from parents and someschool boards for “removing” parents from the equation.“Parents should be a part of their children’s lives, and it’s apparent through the public protests and on-camera interviews that those objecting to the guidance already have their parents as part of that conversation,” Porter said. “While students exercise their free speech today, we’d note that these policies state that students should be treated with compassion and schools should be free from bullying and harassment. ”

Brooklyn’s library moves to slip books through red state bans - — The front line of America’s culture war now runs straight through the nation’s school libraries — with conservatives in dozens of states outlawing books and instruction and the left working to shield targeted authors.Far from the trenches in states like Florida and Texas, organizations in deep-blue New York are stepping into the fray by directly lending 25,000 books to non-residents since spring, including thousands of students living under the bans. The Brooklyn Public Library’s “Books Unbanned” program provides access to its eBook collection and learning databases for people between the ages of 13 and 21.The library’s program is reaching into Oklahoma, which enacted some of the most sweeping laws last year to ban materials that might cause anyone to “feel discomfort, guilt, anguish or any other form of psychological distress” because of their race or gender identity.One Oklahoma high school teacher resigned after suffering backlash for introducing students to the program. Now colleagues, students and community members are making yard signs, and kids are wearing shirts to school advertising the program with a barcode that connects to the BPL website on phones.“The QR code has become — for lack of a better phrasing — it’s become a symbol of resistance locally in my state,” former Norman High School English teacher Summer Boismier said in an interview. She says she quit in protest, and her teaching license is now in jeopardy, after she provided the code to students.Proponents say they are protecting children from sexualized material, political indoctrination and concepts designed to impart guilt on white students. Detractors, meanwhile, say the policy chills discussion around institutional racism and deprives LGBTQ children resources to better understand themselves.Similar bans have been instituted in a push that’s seen hundreds of titles nixed in nearly 3,000 schools across 26 states, according to the nonprofit free speech group PEN America.The group No Left Turn in Education, which supports some bans, says it opposes schools that impose the “orthodoxy of the left,” as well as books containing sexually explicit imagery.“The school is not a playground for politicians,” founder and president Elana Fishbein said. “The school is to educate kids to give them the tools that they need to eventually succeed in life. ... It should be neutral territory.”Restricting books isn’t new, but the bans — some statewide and others only affecting specific school districts — are increasingly part of a larger, nationwide clash over classroom discussions of race and gender identity that has seen conservative activists push money and candidates for school board positions. The right in particular has seized on education issues in upcoming November elections after Republican Glenn Youngkin’s pledge to give parents more power over what their children learn in school helped propel him to victory in Virginia last year. But in Wisconsin, for example, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, said in June that if he loses reelection in November, Republicans will ban books, especially those pertaining to LGBTQ issues.

Most say students should take financial education classes before graduation – Most U.S. adults believe their state should mandate a financial education course for high school students to graduate, according to a new survey. Eighty-eight percent of adults surveyed by the National Endowment for Financial Education (NEFE) and AmeriSpeak said their state should require either a semester or year-long course, while another 80 percent wish the requirement existed when they were in school. Those aged 45 and older were most likely to say their state should mandate a course. Nearly three quarters said spending and budgeting are the most important topics for a financial education curriculum. Fifteen states already require or are considering a financial course before graduation. “Some states already require students to take a financial education course, and some states are in the process of instituting this curriculum. Americans overwhelmingly agree that learning money skills at an early age is important,” Billy Hensley, NEFE president and CEO said in a media release. “In fact, 80% of American adults wish they had been required to take a semester- or year-long financial education class in high school,” Hensley added. “This polling reinforces the national support for personal finance to be a part of learning in all schools.” Men and women were similarly likely to support a state financial education course requirement, but there was a difference between respondents who had varying educational experience. Ninety-one percent of college educated respondents said their state should implement a course, compared to 71 percent of those without a high school diploma.

 Air Force Academy Defends Telling Cadets To Replace 'Mom And Dad' With 'Gender-Neutral Language' - The U.S. Air Force Academy has defended its teaching cadets to avoid “gender-specific terms” such as “mom” or “dad,” saying that “inclusive language” is important to its mission of training leaders capable of winning wars. The Colorado Springs-based military school recently met with criticism over a slide that instructs cadets to replace gender-specific terms with gender-neutral ones. For example, “partner” is considered a better alternative to “boyfriend” or “girlfriend.” Terms like “parents,” “caregivers,” and “guardians” are preferable to “mom” or “dad.” To be “inclusive,” cadets should also avoid saying that they are “colorblind” or that they “don’t see color” or “we’re all just people,” according to the slide. A screenshot of the slide, which is part of a training titled “Diversity and Inclusion: What it is, why we care, and what we can do,” was shared with Fox News by Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), an Afghan War veteran and vocal critic of “wokeness” in the U.S. military. “It’s been a tradition in the military to get letters from Mom and Dad or your boyfriend and girlfriend for as long as there’s been a military,” Waltz told Fox News. “Now we’re instructing every cadet entering the Air Force to not say ‘mom’ and ‘dad,’ to not say ‘boyfriend’ or ‘girlfriend’ and this kind of drive towards gender neutrality.” “I think the Air Force should be worried about the ‘macroaggressions’ against America that are happening all over the world,” he added in a mocking reference to “microagression,” a term leftists use for behaviors they see as unintentional or indirect discrimination against members of a marginalized group. In response to criticism, the Academy said the language of the slide was taken out of context and “misrepresented.” “The Air Force Academy does not prohibit the use of ‘Mom and Dad’ or other gender-specific terms,” the Academy said in a statement. “The slide in question was not intended to stand alone.” The slide, according to the Academy, was intended to “demonstrate how respect for others should be used to build inclusive teams, producing more effective warfighting units.” “USAFA develops leaders of character that can lead diverse teams of Airmen and Guardians inclusively, to enhance innovation and win future conflict,” the Academy said. “It is the diversity of Airmen and Guardians coming from all corners of our nation who perform the Department of the Air Force’s hundreds of critical mission sets that make us the best, most innovative Air and Space Forces the world has ever known.”

What Trump Gets Right about Harvard - Clad in his trademark red sweater, Hall of Fame college basketball coach Bobby Knight introduced Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump to an enthusiastic audience of supporters in late September 2016. “I’ll tell you one thing for damn sure,” Knight bellowed. “I know how to win and he’s going to be the best winner we’ve had in a long time.” Trump emerged to the theme from Rocky, praised Knight’s incredible winning record, and then launched into a diatribe about elite colleges and universities. Two months earlier, Hillary Clinton had proposed to make public college free for middle-class families. Trump would have none of that. “Universities get massive tax breaks for massive endowments,” Trump said, to boos and catcalls. “These huge multi-billion-dollar endowments are tax free,” he explained. “But too many of these universities don’t use the money to help with tuition and student debt. Instead, these universities use the money to pay their administrators or put donors’ names on buildings or just store the money, keep it, and invest it.” The chorus of boos loudened. “In fact, many universities spend more on private equity managers than on tuition programs.”Trump’s persistent attacks on elites were a major component of his electoral strategy and remained a key part of his message during his presidency and subsequent exile. Condemning elites — particularly in higher education — has long been a part of the GOP playbook, but it’s even more key today. Last November, Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance delivered a half-hour speech at the National Conservatism Conference titled, “The Universities are the Enemy.” Vance accused universities of pursuing “deceit and lies.” To applause, he said, “I think if any of us want to do the things that we want to do for our country and for the people who live in it, we have to honestly and aggressively attack the universities in this country.” Vance’s would-be Senate colleagues Josh Hawley — like Vance, a graduate of Yale Law School — and Ted Cruz — a graduate of Harvard — routinely attack elites and elite institutions.To some extent, elite colleges are simply collateral damage in the culture war. Indeed, the thrust of Vance’s speech is about the need to break through the indoctrination of the liberal intelligentsia — via what he calls “red pilling,” a reference to The Matrix — where the “fundamental corruption” at the root of the system, as Vance put it, can’t be unseen once seen. “So much of what drives truth and knowledge, as we understand it in this country,” Vance said, “is fundamentally determined by, supported by and reinforced by the universities in this country.” But that’s not the whole story. Another line of attack is about access. It’s about who gets to be part of the elite, and whether America has gotten a fair return on the massive investment that it has made in elite colleges. For, difficult as this might be for liberals to hear, almost everything Trump said to the crowd Bobby Knight had warmed up was true.

$1 Million Yale University Research Project To Combat Racist Video Game Hair - Yale University’s Computer Science Department recently announced a $1 million donation given to them from the Bungie Foundation for a research project that fights against racist hair graphics in video games. “It is widely assumed that the algorithms used to generate virtual humans are based in biological underpinnings that accurately reflect all races and ethnicities,” the announcement reads. “In reality, however, these algorithms are deeply biased and based on predominantly European features.”The project will be led by Theodore Kim, Associate Professor of Computer Science at Yale. According to Kim, the project will “serve as an example of how to identify the products of systemic racism in computer graphics and demonstrate how to take concrete steps to ameliorate their harm.” Kim believes that this racial bias in video game hair stems from Computer Graphics Researchers that have “historically favored the simulation and rendering of straight hair, which is racially coded as European or Caucasian hair.”As stated on Kim's admin page, “[h]e researches topics in physics-based animation, which include the simulation of fire, water, muscles, skin, and virtual humans.” In 2015, Pew Research Center conducted a study on how various racial and ethnic groups feel about video games. Their article showed that “[r]oughly half (47%) of American adults say they are unsure of whether video games portray minority groups poorly. Interestingly, this is the most common response regardless of race or ethnicity.” The Pew Research Center’s study continued by adding, “Blacks (13%) are more likely than whites (7%) to say most video games portray minority groups poorly.” However, “close to half of all blacks (47%) say they are uncertain if video games depict minorities in a bad light.”

COVID vaccination temporarily lengthens menstrual cycle – COVID-19 vaccination temporarily lengthens the menstrual cycle by less than a day on average, confirms a new study published Tuesday in BMJ Medicine. A previous study from the same team published in January found that a coronavirus vaccine slightly lengthened menstrual cycles among nearly 4,000 people in the U.S. They found that menstrual cycles temporarily increased by 0.71 day on average after the first shot and 0.91 day after the second shot. The latest study is part of a global effort and includes a cohort of more than 19,000 people. Nearly 15,000 people in the study were vaccinated and just under 4,700 were not. The data confirms that vaccination can increase the length of menstrual cycles by about less than a day, although number of days of menses (vaginal bleeding) is unaffected. On average, there was a 0.71 day increase after the first dose and a 0.56 day increase after the second dose. However, for people who received both doses within the same menstrual cycle, they saw an increase in their cycle length by 3.91 days. After vaccination, cycle length trended back towards baseline: 0.02 increase for people who had both doses not in the same cycle and 0.85 days for people who had both doses within the same cycle. A subset of individuals, about 1,300 people, experienced an increase in their cycles by eight or more days. “These findings provide additional information for counseling women on what to expect after vaccination,” says physician Diana Bianchi, who is director of the National Institute of Health’s Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), in apress release. “Changes following vaccination appear to be small, within the normal range of variation, and temporary.”

Just 1.5% Of Eligible People Have Gotten Updated COVID Booster - Only 1.5% of those eligible to receive the new Covid booster jab - which was tested on just 8 mice, not humans, before the FDA approved it - have taken the updated shot, according to data released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Approximately 4.4 million people have taken the tweaked booster shot from Pfizer and Moderna after they were rolled out three weeks ago around Labor Day weekend. The bivalent shots were designed to target both the original Covid-19 strain, and the currently circulating Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, NBC News reports. "I would expect a much higher proportion of Americans to have gotten the booster by this point," said Yale Medicine infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Scott Robers, who said the relatively low uptake was "demoralizing." "The fact that this booster came out days before Biden said the pandemic is over is a huge mixed message," said Roberts, who added that a lack of public awareness surrounding the shots - or the 'prevailing narrative that the pandemic is ending' might have hindered the rollout. "Now it’s going to be that much harder to convince those at risk who are on the fence to get a booster." As of Tuesday, the US had shipped over 25 million boosters to tens of thousands of sites. Approximately 80% of the US population has received at least one shot of the primary Covid vaccine, and almost 68% are considered 'fully vaccinated' by the CDC - meaning they've received two doses of Pfizer or Moderna's offering, or one dose of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine. Word of the slow uptake comes after Denmark recommended that only those over the age of 50, or who are at risk of developing severe Covid-19, receive the vaccine.

The COVID Booster: Food proteins could prepare immune system, long COVID risks neurological issues -- American research published in Frontiers in Immunology suggests exposure to certain dietary proteins might enhance the body’s natural immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.Researchers tested the antibodies produced to fight off COVID-19 against 15 bacterial and viral antigens, the DTaP (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis) and tuberculosis vaccines, and 180 food peptides and proteins.It found the strongest responses from the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies occurred to the DTaP vaccine antigen, the bacterium Enterococcus faecalis, and peptides and proteins from roasted almond, broccoli, soy, cashews, α+β casein and milk, pork, rice endochitinase, pineapple bromelain, and lentil lectin.The findings suggest the immune system is able to ‘remember’ a response to molecules that are similarly shaped to the spike protein on the virus that causes COVID-19.A study published in Nature Medicine has found that in the 12 months following recovery from COVID-19, a person is at increased risk of numerous, potential neurological conditions. Among over 150,000 people with the disease, the researchers from the St Louis Health Care System in the USA who have previously investigated the relationship of ‘long COVID’ and potential heart complications, found a significantly increased risk of cerebrovascular disorders like thrombosis and stroke, cognitive disorders like Alzheimer’s disease, nerve disorders, episodic disorders like epilepsy and seizures, movement disorders, mental health disorders, musculoskeletal problems like myopathy, loss of taste and smell and other disorders like Guillain-Barre syndrome.These issues were found to cross demographic boundaries as well as those with no record of hospitalisation from the disease, with the researchers recommending the impact of long-term COVID-19 problems be considered by authorities when “devising policies for managing the ongoing pandemic, and developing exit strategies for a postpandemic era.”“More than two years into the COVID-19 global pandemic, it is abundantly clear that infection with SARS-CoV-2 may result in a broad array of long-terms disorders,” they write.“This places more emphasis on the continued need for multipronged primary prevention strategies through nonpharmaceutical interventions (for example, masking) and vaccines to reduce to the extent possible the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.”

 Mounting evidence shows autoimmune responses play a significant role in long Covid - Disease experts say it has become increasingly clear that an autoimmune response, in which antibodies attack the body’s own healthy cells and tissue, plays an important role in some long-Covid cases.The latest evidence for this came in a study published last week in the European Respiratory Journal. It found that people who had long-lasting Covid symptoms were more likely to have markers of autoimmune disease in their blood than people who'd recovered quickly from the coronavirus or had never gotten infected.The researchers took blood samples from 106 people who'd gotten Covid, at three, six and 12 months after their diagnosis (though by the end, only 57 patients were participating). They compared the samples to those from healthy people and people who'd had other types of respiratory infections at the beginning of the study. After a year, 41% of the Covid group had detectable autoantibodies in their blood, whereas most healthy people had none. Autoantibody levels were also relatively low in the group with unrelated respiratory infections. About 20% to 30% of the Covid group had markers of inflammation in their blood as well as two particular types of autoantibodies with known links to autoimmune disease. Those patients tended to be the ones suffering from lingering fatigue and shortness of breath. Dr. Manali Mukherjee, the study’s senior author and an assistant professor of medicine at McMaster University, said her team plans to follow up with the patients up to two years post-infection to see if their symptoms resolve or they develop diagnosable autoimmune diseases. "There will be a subset of patients who will end up with a diagnosis for life," she said. Mukherjee has a personal interest in the research: She got Covid a year and a half ago and still gets short of breath when she sings, swims or climbs the stairs. Her symptoms also include headaches, fatigue and brain fog. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in June that 1 in 13 U.S. adults have long Covid, defined as symptoms lasting three months or more.

Multiple Possible Causes of Long COVID Come into Focus -- In December of 2020, Brooke Keaton, a 41-year-old preschool teacher in Charlotte, North Carolina, had COVID-19. After a grueling two weeks, she recovered, “but I still didn’t feel right,” she recalls. Since then, Keaton has been battling a host of debilitating symptoms that have put her out of work. She felt her heart race even when she was sitting down. And though some of her symptoms have improved, she still fatigues easily and suffers from insomnia and memory loss. “Brain fog doesn’t even begin to cover what I felt,” says Keaton. “I have to set reminders for myself like I have dementia.” As with many people living with long COVID, when Keaton first went to the doctor, her symptoms were dismissed as anxiety. It took months of self-advocacy before she could see even a single specialist. Since October of last year, over the course of more than 70 doctor appointments, she’s been diagnosed with arthritis, a heart condition, and bursitis in her hips. The causes of some of her most debilitating symptoms, including her brain fog, remain unknown. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that one or more of a host of persistent symptoms arise in 20 percent of people in the US who’ve recovered from a SARS-CoV-2 infection, even when those infections were mild. A meta-analysis performed in April puts this figure globally at 43 percent, and the US Census Bureau estimates that as many as 4 million people in the country are out of work as a result. Despite crippling cognitive and physical symptoms, doctors are unable to find anything wrong with many long COVID patients. More than 200 symptoms are now associated with the disease, and still “there are no established effective treatments for long COVID,” says Linda Geng, who directs the Stanford Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome Clinic. “Anecdotally, patients have reported improvement with a variety of different treatments, but then there are just as many patients who do not respond to those same treatments.” After a slow start that frustrated many long COVID patients, also called long-haulers, scientists are beginning to piece together why a coronavirus infection causes lasting symptoms in some patients. “There are multiple groups coming up with different kinds of hypotheses; I think it’s worth looking at all possibilities and not being focused on one single thing,” says Avindra Nath, an immunologist at the National Institutes of Health. One of those possibilities is that COVID-19 causes the immune system to go haywire, triggering a long-lastinginflammatory response that wreaks havoc on multiple organ systems. This long-lasting inflammation may be explained by the continued presence of virus or viral particles in organs such as the gut, but may also be due to the reactivation of dormant pathogens such as Epstein-Barr virus, a herpesvirus that is the most common cause of mononucleosis. Another theory is that COVID-19 sets off a response akin to an autoimmune disease that causes antibodies to target and destroy the body’s own tissues. Still another hypothesis blames microclots, tiny blood clots that have been found to be more common in long COVID patients.Taken together, studies suggest that long COVID and its many symptoms may not have just one cause, and may not be just be one disease. “There may not be a single mechanism for all long COVID—there could be multiple mechanisms ongoing, and for some individuals one may be more dominant than the other,” says Nath.

Long-term neurologic outcomes of COVID-19 - Abstract: The neurologic manifestations of acute COVID-19 are well characterized, but a comprehensive evaluation of postacute neurologic sequelae at 1 year has not been undertaken. Here we use the national healthcare databases of the US Department of Veterans Affairs to build a cohort of 154,068 individuals with COVID-19, 5,638,795 contemporary controls and 5,859,621 historical controls; we use inverse probability weighting to balance the cohorts, and estimate risks and burdens of incident neurologic disorders at 12 months following acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results show that in the postacute phase of COVID-19, there was increased risk of an array of incident neurologic sequelae including ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, cognition and memory disorders, peripheral nervous system disorders, episodic disorders (for example, migraine and seizures), extrapyramidal and movement disorders, mental health disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, sensory disorders, Guillain–Barré syndrome, and encephalitis or encephalopathy. We estimated that the hazard ratio of any neurologic sequela was 1.42 (95% confidence intervals 1.38, 1.47) and burden 70.69 (95% confidence intervals 63.54, 78.01) per 1,000 persons at 12 months. The risks and burdens were elevated even in people who did not require hospitalization during acute COVID-19. Limitations include a cohort comprising mostly White males. Taken together, our results provide evidence of increased risk of long-term neurologic disorders in people who had COVID-19.

Long Covid: What we know about the loss of smell and taste — Imagine waking up one morning after recovering from Covid-19 to find that your coffee smells like unwashed socks, your eggs reek of feces and your orange juice tastes metallic. Oddly, that’s a good thing: It’s a sign you still have a working sense of smell – even if it’s miswired in your brain. Your ability to smell can also disappear completely, a condition called anosmia. Taste and smell are intertwined, so food may be bland or flavorless. Appetite and enjoyment of life may plummet, which past studies show can lead to nutritional deficits, cognitive decline and depression. Danger lurks as well. Without smell, you may not recognize the telltale signs of fires, natural gas leaks, poisonous chemicals or spoiled food and drink. Such is the reality of some 5% of global Covid-19 survivors who have now developed long-lasting taste and smell problems, according to a 2022 study. More than two years into the pandemic, researchers found an estimated 15 million people may still have problems perceiving odors, while 12 million may struggle with taste.Support and advocacy groups such as AbScent and Fifth Sense have mobilized to help, offering affirmation and hope, tips on smell training and even recipes to bolster appetite. Smell or olfactory training encourages people to sniff essential oils twice a day, said rhinologist Dr. Zara Patel, a professor of otolaryngology, head and neck surgery at Stanford University School of Medicine. “The way I explain it to patients is if you had a stroke, and it made your arm not work, you would go to physical therapy, you would do rehab,” Patel said. “That’s exactly what olfactory training is for your sense of smell.” As science learns more about how Covid-19 attacks and disrupts smell, “I think you’re going to see interventions that are more targeted,” said rhinologist Dr. Justin Turner, an associate professor of otolaryngology, head and neck surgery at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville. Anyone still struggling with a loss of smell and taste “should think positively and assume their sense of smell will return,” Turner said. “Yes, there are some people that won’t recover, so for those folks, we want them to not ignore it. We want them to take it seriously.”

 Coronavirus: 75% of people with long COVID take a year to recover, finds study | The Times of India - Long COVID or post-COVID conditions or post-COVID Syndrome refers to a wide variety of symptoms that can’t be explained by another diagnosis. These last four weeks or longer after the initial COVID infection.According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), anyone who has experienced COVID-19 infection can develop long COVID symptoms, irrespective of the severity of symptoms in the initial infection, including those who were asymptomatic.Since its “long” COVID, the exact recovery period remains uncertain. A new research published in the European Respiratory Journal finds that regardless of severity, about 75% of people will recover from long COVID within a year.

New guidance released on diagnosing, treating long COVID symptoms - Citing concerns about the lingering and sometimes debilitating long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the body -- and observed inequities amongst minority patients suffering disproportionately from the virus -- medical experts on “long COVID” issued the first guidance of its kind to diagnose and treat themysterious illness.Experts at the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation said they hope the guidance will help other doctors leverage their experience with patients to help address and mitigate their symptoms.The guidance is indicative of widespread concern among medical experts that even months after resolving the initial infection, COVID is still causing serious health concerns amongst many Americans. At least 9 million long COVID patients are grappling with a range of symptoms, but experts said that number could be as high as 28 million people."When we recognized that long COVID, this new problem was developing due to the pandemic, we really felt an obligation to come forth and try to address it as best as we could," Dr. Steven Flanagan, American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation president-elect said at a reporter roundtable Tuesday ahead of the guidance release. "We recognized two years ago, this is a problem."A priority in addressing long COVID is to "recognize, assess and treat" the symptoms across a wide range of medical disciplines, including cardiovascular and pulmonary to neurologic, cognitive and gastrointestinal care, experts said.Dr. Alba Azola, the lead author of the autonomic dysfunction guidance statement and member of the Johns Hopkins Post-Acute COVID-19 Team, said the medical community will need to tailor individual rehab protocols for each patient's unique needs."As the pandemic has continued, more people of all ages have contracted COVID-19, and the number of children potentially impacted by long COVID has also increased," The most common long COVID symptoms children experience are fatigue and attention problems, ongoing fever, headaches, sleep issues, and new mental health issues like anxiety and depression. Older, female children may be at an increased risk of developing long COVID, Morrow said.Symptoms, management and rehabilitation for long COVID differ for children and adults, the experts said. Moreover, parsing out a long COVID diagnosis from other potential medical problems is not easy, since long COVID can involve so many of the body's systems."Parents, caregivers, teachers and coaches are the frontline in observing changes and children that may be related to long COVID," Morrow said. "Children generally have fewer preexisting conditions than adults, so long COVID symptoms should be considered relative to the prior acute COVID illness," Morrow said. "Young children and children with disabilities may have difficulty describing their symptoms, so it's really important to try to tease that out during the medical interview."

Children and COVID-19: State-Level Data Report --State-level reports are the best publicly available and timely data on child COVID-19 cases in the United States. The American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association are collaborating to collect and share all publicly available data from states on child COVID-19 cases. The definition of “child” case is based on varying age ranges reported across states (see report Appendix for details and links to all data sources).For the week ending September 22nd, 55,000 child COVID-19 cases were reported. This is the fourth consecutive weekly decrease of reported cases, with 90,600 cases reported the week ending September 1st. Reported COVID-19 cases among children have decreased substantially from the Omicron variant winter surge, however since mid-May reported weekly cases have fluctuated between a low, now of 55,000 cases, and a high of about 112,000.Over 14.7 million children are reported to have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic according to available state reports; over 289,000 of these cases have been added in the past 4 weeks. Approximately 6.85 million reported cases have been added in 2022.The age distribution of reported COVID-19 cases was provided on the health department websites of reporting states, New York City, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. Since the pandemic began, children represented 18.4% of total cumulated cases.For the current week ending September 22nd, this portion of reported cases that were children was 16.9% (children, under age 18, make up 22.2% of the US population). Reported cases are likely a substantial undercount of COVID-19 cases. Summary of Findings (data available as of 9/22/22) :

Cumulative Number of Child COVID-19 Cases*

• 14,737,867 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 18.4% (14,737,867/80,030,437) of all cases
• Overall rate: 19,581 cases per 100,000 children in the population

Change in Child COVID-19 Cases*

• 55,034 child COVID-19 cases were reported the past week from 9/15/22-9/22/22 (14,682,832 to 14,737,867) and children represented 16.9% (55,034/326,610) of the weekly reported cases
• Over two weeks, 9/8/22-9/22/22, there was a <1% increase in the cumulated number of child COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic (115,334 cases added (14,622,533 to 14,737,867))

Could UV Light Reduce the Spread of Covid-19 in Indoor Spaces? -The empty room was sealed. The scientists started the clock. For nearly two hours, they pumped the roughly four-by-three-meter chamber full of aerosols carrying a nasty pathogen. It was a pared-down replica of the kind of situation that many of us have tried diligently to avoid for the last couple of years. Unable to use the Covid-19 virus in their experiment due to biosafety restrictions, the researchers had opted, instead, for Staphylococcus aureus, a bacterium that can cause a range of sometimes deadly infections. Then, with the press of a button, the scientists activated lamps they had fixed to the ceiling, sending a death ray beaming down upon the cloud of germs — a light, invisible to the human eye, with a wavelength of 222 nanometers. Light with such a wavelength — called far-UVC, from the ultraviolet portion of the electromagnetic spectrum — is deadly for microbes, researchers are learning, but appears safe for human beings. And that offers tantalizing possibilities as the Covid-19 pandemic rolls on. The researchers took air samples from the room every five minutes. Then they grew cultures to count how many living bacteria were present in samples retrieved before and after switch-on. These showed that the light had worked — with astonishing effectiveness. “We were pretty gobsmacked at the reduction in the pathogen,” says Ewan Eadie, a medical physicist at NHS Tayside in Dundee, Scotland. Eadie and colleagues tested various levels of exposure to far-UVC, all within the guidelines set by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists. The highest exposure saw pathogen levels plunge by about 98 percent in mere minutes. The team published their results in the journal Scientific Reports in March 2022. Since then, they have tested the technology on two other pathogens — Pseudomonas aeruginosa and a bacteria-infecting virus called Phi 6 — with similar success. The researchers are confident that the lamps would also destroy the virus that causes Covid-19: Experiments in a different setting by other teams have shown that far-UVC does inactivate SARS-CoV-2, perhaps because UV light damages the genome of the virus. Some health experts argue that disinfecting indoor spaces with light could be a game-changer as the world opens up and the memory of lockdowns — for most of us — slowly fades. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, can become airborne via the floating particles emitted when people breathe, speak, shout or sing. Virus-laden plumes can hang in the air indoors and spread disease. For more than two and a half years, scientists and government officials around the world have promoted a string of preventive measures — handwashing, vaccination, social distancing, mask-wearing, ventilation. None of them is perfect; they are often described as layers in a “Swiss cheese model” of risk reduction. Some experts now suggest we should consider adding far-UVC into the mix in certain indoor spaces.

Chinese mainland records 170 new confirmed COVID-19 cases - The Chinese mainland recorded 170 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 106 attributed to local transmissions and 64 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Thursday.A total of 629 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Wednesday, and 10,820 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 250,293, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226. The latest tally of confirmed cases in the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan region is as follows:

• Hong Kong: 413,656 (84,270 recoveries, 10,148 deaths)
• Macao: 793 (787 recoveries, six deaths)
• Taiwan: 6,373,121 (13,742 recoveries, 10,950 deaths)

In China, Living Not ‘With Covid,’ but With ‘Zero Covid’ - — The signs of a looming lockdown in Shenzhen, China, had been building for a while. The city had been logging a few coronavirus infections for days. Daily Covid tests were required to go pretty much anywhere. Individual buildings had been sealed off. So when a hotel employee woke me up a little after 7 a.m. to explain that we were not allowed to step outside for four days, my initial disorientation quickly turned to resignation. Of course this happened. I live in China. As the rest of the world sheds more restrictions by the day, China’s rules are becoming more entrenched, along with the patterns of pandemic life under a government insistent on eliminating cases. People schedule lunch breaks around completing mandatory tests. They restructure commutes to minimize the number of health checkpoints along the way. A sense of possible disaster always lurks, driven by the experiences of Shanghai and other cities, where sudden lockdowns have left residents without food or medicine. A friend bought a second freezer so she could stock up on groceries. Yet the policies have been in place for so long, and with so little sign of easing, that navigating them feels — if not normal — at least routine. I know which testing site near my home returns results the quickest, and which grocer doesn’t check whether you’ve logged your visit for future contact tracing. The disruptive becomes typical; the once-unimaginable, reality. The pandemic has imposed new rituals around the world, but in China, the extremes make that process more unsettling. The most obviously jarring aspects, for me, were technological. China under “zero Covid” is a web of digital codes. At the entrance to every public space — restaurants, apartment complexes, even public restrooms — is a printed-out QR code that people must scan with their phones to log their visit. Everyone also has a personal health code, which uses test results and location history to assign a color. Green is good. Yellow or red, and you may be sent to quarantine. What actually determines the color of your code, though, is nebulous. When a banking scandal prompted protests in Henan Province this year, officials manipulated protesters’ health codes to block them from gathering. The morning in August that a colleague and I were scheduled to fly from the southern city of Guangzhou to Shanghai, her code suddenly, without explanation, turned yellow, meaning she could not board the plane. A health worker said the code would revert if she took another Covid test (never mind that we’d been taking daily tests for two weeks). It did — barely an hour before takeoff.

Coronavirus detected in bats shows resistance to vaccines – The World Health Organization’s Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in May that because of reduced testing and sequencing “we are blinding ourselves to the evolution of the virus.” Similarly, because coronaviruses are found in other mammals, it is important to be aware of what is circulating among animal populations. A team of researchers at Washington State University and Tulane University School of Medicine is aiming to do just that. In a paper published in PLoS Pathogens, they detail two coronaviruses detected in a population of horseshoe bats in Russia. The lineages of the viruses are separate from original SARS-CoV-1 from 2003 and SARS-CoV-2, which is responsible for the current pandemic. However, the researchers think that it is useful to study coronaviruses in wild animals to understand viral evolution and potential for crossover into humans. They sequenced the bat coronaviruses and tested them in the laboratory against human cells. The bat viruses had a receptor binding domain, a part of the virus that can bind to molecules on the membranes of cells, that were able to help them enter human cells. The team also tested the viruses against SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies and serum from individuals vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 that contained antibodies. One of the two bat coronaviruses was resistant to both monoclonal antibodies and vaccine-induced antibodies. They had a similar result when they tested it against antibodies from someone who recovered from an infection of an omicron variant. “We don’t want to scare anybody and say this is a completely vaccine-resistant virus,” says Michael Letko, who is assistant professor in the Paul Allen School of Public Health at Washington State University and led the study, to TIME. “But it is concerning that there are viruses circulating in nature that have these properties—they can bind to human receptors and are not so neutralized by current vaccine responses.” One of the main concerns is if these bat coronaviruses can combine with SARS-CoV-2 and lead to new variants. If these new variants inherit immune evasive characteristics, that could be a problem for us.

New COVID-Like Virus in Russian Bats Shows Resistance to Vaccine Antibodies : ScienceAlert --A novel coronavirus found in Russian bats has scientists calling for an urgent effort in generalized vaccine development. Otherwise, they caution, another pandemic might be triggered by a deadly animal virus spilling over to humans.Similar to SARS-CoV-2, the new respiratory virus discovered among bats, known as Khosta-2, is covered in spike proteins that can infect human cells using the same entryways.Even more problematic is its apparent resistance to monoclonal antibodies and serum induced in recipients of theCOVID-19 vaccine.In other words, this new respiratory virus cannot be neutralized by our current medicines.Not even antibodies developed from the omicron variant were effective against the bat virus, despite the fact that both pathogens belong to the same group of acute respiratory coronaviruses, known as sarbecoviruses."Critically, our findings highlight the urgent need to continue development of new, and broader-protecting sarbecovirus vaccines," the authors write.When researchers in Russia first stumbled across Khosta-2 along with another bat virus, Khosta-1, in 2020, neither pathogen looked particularly dangerous.Neither were closely related to SARS-CoV-2. In fact, they came from a distinct lineage that lacked some of the genes researchers thought were necessary to antagonize the human immune system.Upon closer examination, however, experts have identified some worrisome traits in Khosta-2.In the lab, this bat pathogen was able to use the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors on human liver cells to infect tissue in much the same way as SARS-CoV-2. The receptor binding domains on its spike proteins also showed complete resistance to the monoclonal antibodies triggered by the COVID-19 vaccine."Genetically, these weird Russian viruses looked like some of the others that had been discovered elsewhere around the world, but because they did not look like SARS-CoV-2, no one thought they were really anything to get too excited about," explains virologist Michael Letko from Washington State University."But when we looked at them more, we were really surprised to find they could infect human cells. That changes a little bit of our understanding of these viruses, where they come from and what regions are concerning."

Flu is here. Doctors expect high infection rates - The flu season has started early in the U.S., with cases rising two months before influenza season typically begins. “Flu is here. It’s early for us to see hospitalizations. Historically, we don’t see flu cases in September. We usually see an uptick around Thanksgiving and Christmas. So, this flu season is early,” said Dr. Michelle Barron, UCHealth’s senior medical director of infection prevention and control and one of the top infectious disease experts in Colorado. She’s urging people to get their flu vaccines as soon as possible. “Once flu cases start rising, they’ll go up fast. And we don’t want people to be left without protection,” said Barron, who is also a professor at the University of Colorado School of Medicine on the Anschutz Medical Campus. So far, only a handful of patients have needed hospital care for the influenza virus in the UCHealth system. Around the U.S. cases have spiked in the southwest, with Texas so far logging the highest number of cases. New Mexico is also seeing spikes, as is Georgia. “The fact that we’re seeing cases at all this early means it’s going to keep circulating more widely in the community,” Barron said. She and other medical experts had predicted an early flu season for 2022 and early 2023.. They also are bracing for much higher influenza activity than in recent years. That’s because Australian health officials saw an early, severe flu season during their fall and winter earlier this year. North America typically follows the same patterns that emerge in the southern hemisphere. The COVID-19 pandemic likely is driving higher flu case numbers this year. Back in 2020 and early 2021, before COVID-19 vaccines were widely available, many people were wearing masks and avoiding close contact with others in crowded, indoor spaces. Those preventive measures drove down both COVID-19 and flu cases, which were almost non-existent two years ago. Last year’s flu season also was relatively mild. The near absence of flu cases has helped people stay well. At the same time, our bodies don’t have recent immunities to flu, so infections could hit people harder this year. “Things are off kilter now and will be off kilter for a while,” Barron said. Most UCHealth patients treated for flu so far have tested positive for Type A influenza, which normally arrives first. There have been some Type B cases as well. The majority of flu cases so far have emerged among children and teens younger than age 18. That’s not surprising since kids are back in school, Barron said.

Early data suggests monkeypox vaccine may be working, CDC says - — Early data analyzed by the CDC shows that unvaccinated people at risk for monkeypox were 14 times more likely to be infected than individuals who received a first dose of Jynneos’ vaccine designed to prevent smallpox, Krista reports. “There have been limited data on how well the Jynneos vaccine performs against monkeypox in real-world conditions,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said during a briefing on Wednesday. “These new data provide us with a level of cautious optimism that the vaccine is working as intended.” But the early data has limitations. While it shows that people with one vaccine dose were infected at a lower rate than unvaccinated people, it doesn’t reflect how individuals’ behavioral changes — or other factors like testing, age or underlying health conditions — might have played into that outcome. Multiple clinical trials and studies are underway to better understand the effectiveness of various vaccine administration routes, as well as antiviral Tpoxx against monkeypox. It’s unclear whether those efforts will be impacted by Congress’ refusal so far to provide the $4.5 billion the White House says it needs to fund its monkeypox response. Despite their new optimism about the protection one dose offers, officials emphasized on Wednesday that laboratory evidence still suggests people are best protected from the virus after a second vaccine dose and encouraged all eligible people to complete the full regimen. “This just tells us to keep on trucking forward because we need that second dose in arms,” said Demetre Daskalakis, deputy coordinator of the White House monkeypox response.

 Ebola outbreak declared in Uganda - Health authorities in Uganda declared an outbreak of Ebola on September 20, 2022, after a case of the Sudan virus disease (SUDV) was confirmed in the Mubende district in the central part of the country. This is the first Ebola disease outbreak caused by the Sudan virus in Uganda since 2012. A National Task Force is meeting every day. The case was a 24-year-old male who developed a wide range of symptoms on September 11, including high-grade fever, tonic convulsions, blood-stained vomit and diarrhea, loss of appetite, pain while swallowing, chest pain, dry cough and bleeding in the eyes, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports.1 The man visited two private clinics between September 11 – 15 without improvement. He was then referred to the Regional Referral Hospital (RRH) on September 15 where he was isolated as a suspected case of viral hemorrhagic fever. A blood sample was collected on September 17 and sent to the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) in Kampala where RT- PCR tests conducted were positive for SUDV on September 19. On the same day, the patient died. Results of preliminary investigations identified a number of community deaths from an unknown illness in Madudu and Kiruma sub-counties of Mubende district reported in the first two weeks of September. These deaths are now considered to be probable cases of Ebola caused by SUDV. As of September 25, the Minister of Health reports 36 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) case patients in Mubende and Kyegegwa districts (18 confirmed, 18 suspected) and 23 cumulative deaths (4 confirmed, 19 probable).2 A total of 399 contact cases have been identified and 104 are under follow-up. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) is setting up an Ebola Treatment center and WHO deployed medical supplies, providing logistics and deploying staff to support the Ugandan authorities in halting the spread of the virus. DG ECHO’s health partners are actively responding to the situation, in particular by strengthening measures in refugee settlements, including setting up an isolation unit. Sudan virus disease is severe, often fatal illness affecting humans, first reported in southern Sudan in June 1976.1 Since then the virus has emerged periodically and up to now, seven outbreaks caused by SUDV have been reported, four in Uganda and three in Sudan. The estimated case fatality ratios of SVD have varied from 41% to 100% in past outbreaks. The virus is introduced into the human population through close contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected animals such as fruit bats, chimpanzees, gorillas, monkeys, forest antelope or porcupines found ill or dead or in the rainforest. It then spreads through human-to-human transmission via direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with either blood or body fluids of a person who is sick with or has died from SVD or objects that have been contaminated with body fluids (like blood, faeces, vomit) from a person sick with SVD or the body of a person who died from SVD.

 California just legalized 'human composting.' Not everyone is happy. There are traditionally two options for what to do with a body after death: burial or cremation. In California, a third choice will soon present itself for those who shuffle off this mortal coil. That choice is human composting. Assembly Bill 351, signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday, will allow residents to choose human composting, or natural organic reduction (NOR), after death starting in 2027. The process of composting a cadaver, already legalized in Washington, Colorado and Oregon, involves placing the body in a reusable container, surrounding it with wood chips and aerating it to let microbes and bacteria grow. After about a month, the remains will decompose and be fully transformed into soil. Companies such as Recompose in Washington offer the service at a natural organic reduction facility. Unlike cremation, the process avoids the burning of fossil fuels and emission of carbon monoxide. National Geographic estimates that cremations in the U.S. alone emit about 360,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide a year. During the early depths of the coronavirus pandemic, when funeral homes were inundated, Los Angeles County suspended regulations on cremation emissions. The author of the bill, Democratic Assemblymember Cristina Garcia, says the threat of climate change motivated the new law. “AB 351 will provide an additional option for California residents that is more environmentally-friendly and gives them another choice for burial,” said Garcia in a statement. “With climate change and sea-level rise as very real threats to our environment, this is an alternative method of final disposition that won’t contribute emissions into our atmosphere.” Garcia added that she herself may choose the method when she passes away. "I look forward to continuing my legacy to fight for clean air by using my reduced remains to plant a tree," she wrote.

Honduras declares statewide emergency to respond to ongoing floods - The government of Honduras issued the declaration of a statewide emergency for 90 days on September 24, 2022, in an effort to respond to the consequences of ongoing floods. On the same date, the Secretary of State in the Offices of Risk Management and National Contingencies declared a red alert for the departments of Santa Barbara and Copan for 48 hours, for the municipalities bordering the Ulua river where the population is being evacuated.1 On September 26, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that 3 297 families and 796 houses are affected and 98 shelters were activated for the emergency sheltering of 8 276 persons. The armed forces and the Police were requested to provide security to the places where displaced persons are gathered. On September 22, DG ECHO reported that heavy rain has affected parts of Honduras over the past three days, causing floods, and rivers overflow and leading to casualties and evacuations. According to media reports, one person died in Siguatepeque City (Comayagua Department, central-western Honduras) on September 19 and more than 200 have been evacuated in Siguatepeque City and Comayagua City areas.

About 746000 still without power in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Fiona (Reuters) - An estimated 746,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Puerto Rico on Monday morning after Hurricane Fiona caused an island-wide power outage for its roughly 3.3 million residents. Fiona, which was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone by the U.S. National Hurricane Center on Saturday, battered Puerto Rico and other parts of the Caribbean a week ago, killing at least eight people. The storm reminded many Puerto Ricans of the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria five years ago, which knocked out power for almost all 1.5 million customers for a week. PowerOutage.us, which estimates outages based on utility data, said 746,144 customers remained without service early Monday based on information from LUMA Energy, which operates Puerto Rico's grid. There were roughly 928,000 customers without power early Friday out of a total 1.468 million, according to PowerOutage.us. The widespread power outages have led to cascading energy problems for Puerto Rico, where fuel distribution limitations and surging demand for fuel to run backup generators has left many gas stations dry. LUMA is a joint venture owned by units of Canadian energy firm ATCO Ltd (50%) and U.S. energy contractor Quanta Services Inc

Hurricane “Fiona” left 16 fatalities in Puerto Rico, 528 000 customers remain without power - The number of fatalities caused by Hurricane “Fiona” in Puerto Rico rose to 16 on September 26, the Government of Puerto Rico reports. The entire island (population 3.1 million) was without power after landfall on September 18. The number of customers without power was at 746 000 on September 26, and at 528 000 early on September 27. Category 1 Hurricane “Fiona” made landfall along the extreme southwestern coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon at 19:20 UTC on September 18, 2022, with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 986 hPa. This is the first hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since Hurricane “Maria” in 2017.1 Damage to the island was described by government officials as catastrophic. Fiona brought widespread rain – from 125 to 250 mm (5 to 10 inches) across much of central, eastern and southern parts of the islands, with localized amounts up to 500 mm (20 inches) in the mountainous areas. The rain triggered life-threatening flash flooding and landslides, trapping residents in the towns of Arecibo, Barranquitas, Caguas, Coqui, Parcelas La Milagrosa and Patillas, according to reports received by the National Weather Service in San Juan. Strong winds brought by Fiona downed trees, blocked roads, and knocked down power to the entire island (population 3.1 million). The number of fatalities rose to 16 on September 26 – 4 confirmed and 12 still under investigation.2 The number of customers without power dropped to 528 000 early September 27.

Fiona’s Storm Surge Sweeps Canada Homes Out To Sea - Videos from The Weather Channel

Photos: The Aftermath of Hurricane Fiona in Eastern Canada - The Atlantic - After causing heavy damage across parts of the Caribbean and Bermuda last week, Hurricane Fiona moved north toward Eastern Canada, making landfall this weekend as a post-tropical cyclone. The downgraded storm still packed heavy rain and winds, gusting up to 110 mph, driving storm surges and knocking down trees and power lines. Hundreds of thousands remain without power as emergency crews and utility workers work to clear debris and rebuild lines. Below is a collection of recent images from Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland. HINTS: View this page full screen. Skip to the next and previous photo by typing j/k or ←/→.

It could take months for Canada to restore infrastructure to provinces after Fiona leaves ‘unprecedented’ trail of destruction - It will take several months for Canada to restore critical infrastructure after the powerful storm Fiona left an “unprecedented” trail of destruction, officials said on Sunday, as crews fanned out in five provinces to restore power and clean up fallen trees and debris. “It’s like a complete war zone,” said Brian Button, mayor of Port aux Basques, one of the hardest hit towns on the southwest tip of Newfoundland with just over 4,000 residents. More than 20 homes were destroyed and the cost of damages “is in the millions (of dollars) here now,” Button said in an interview with Reuters. No fatalities have been confirmed so far, but police in Newfoundland are searching for a 73-year-old woman they suspect was swept out to sea. “The woman was last seen inside (her) residence just moments before a wave struck the home, tearing away a portion of the basement. She has not been seen since,” police said in a statement. Hundreds of thousands of residents across Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, Quebec and New Brunswick remained without power on Sunday. Blair said hundreds of utility crews had already been deployed to restore power. “When it’s all said and done ... Fiona will turn out to have caused the most damage of any storm we’ve seen,” Tim Houston, Nova Scotia's premier, told the CBC. Officials warned on Saturday that in some cases it would take weeks before essential services could be fully restored. Trees were downed, power poles were snapped in half, roofs were ripped off buildings and homes were washed away after Fiona made landfall in eastern Nova Scotia around 3 a.m. on Saturday, officials said. When Fiona made landfall near Whitehead it was a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds of 90 mph, officials said. “It’s shocking the damage that we’re seeing,” Houston said Saturday. A storm surge of more than 6 feet hit Prince Edward Island. The damage is likely the worst ever seen in the province, and the recovery will take weeks or longer, Dennis King, Prince Edward Island's premier, said. Canada’s federal government was sending in the armed forces on Sunday to help clear fallen trees and debris, which will in turn open the way for crews to restore power, Bill Blair, emergency preparedness minister, told Reuters. The province of Nova Scotia requested the troops and machinery to clear debris Saturday, “and we said yes, and so they’re being deployed today,” Blair said. Other provinces are also in discussions about federal aid, Blair said. The Canadian Hurricane Centre estimated that Fiona was the lowest-pressure storm to make landfall on record in Canada. In 2019, Dorian hit the region around Halifax, Nova Scotia, blowing down a construction crane and knocking out power. Fiona, on the other hand, appears to have caused major damage across at least five provinces.

Philippines on high alert as ‘explosive’ Super Typhoon Noru makes landfall - Emergency officials in the Philippines were on high alert Sunday as a rapidly intensifying tropical storm known as Super Typhoon Noru made landfall off the eastern shore of the capital, Manila, and made its way toward the main island. Weather officials have warned of a potential “extreme threat” to life and property from Noru, also known locally as Super Typhoon Karding. The storm reached “super typhoon category after a period of explosive intensification,” they said. Super typhoons have peak winds of at least 150 mph. Though the storm was expected to weaken into Monday as it crossed over the main island of Luzon, which includes Manila, and made landfall, the officials said it was “highly likely” to “remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.” As Noru approached the Philippines, its peak winds increased from 60 to 160 mph in 24 hours as it transformed from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane. This leap was among the fastest 24-hour intensification rates on record for any tropical cyclone. Scientists say human-caused climate change is increasing the potential for such rapid strengthening. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Sunday canceled classes in public schools and closed down non-emergency government buildings in a bid to keep people indoors and out of the storm’s path, his office said on social media.

Ian rapidly strengthens into a hurricane - significant wind and storm surge impacts expected in Cuba - Tropical Storm “Ian” rapidly strengthened into a hurricane by 09:00 UTC on September 26, 2022. Significant wind and storm surge impacts are expected in western Cuba before Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on September 28 and heads toward Florida. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba, the National Weather Service (NHC) warns. Considerable flooding impacts are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later this week. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late today, and Ian is forecast to be at major hurricane strength when it is near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of this week. Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of a life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week. At 09:00 UTC on September 26, the center of Hurricane “Ian” was located about 150 km (90 miles) SW of Grand Cayman and 510 km (315 miles) SE of the western tip of Cuba.1 Ian had maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 983 hPa. It is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion on Tuesday, September 27, with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, September 28.

Hurricane Ian strengthens to Category 2 storm and could be 'something that we haven't seen in our lifetime,' Tampa forecaster says --Hurricane Ian keeps getting stronger as it barrels toward Florida, prompting urgent evacuations and threatening dangerous storm surges in places not used to getting hit directly by a hurricane. Ian is now a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, according to a 5 p.m. ET update from the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. The eye of the storm is located around 150 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba and Ian is moving north-northwest near 13 mph, the center said. Florida could start feeling Ian’s wrath as early as Tuesday, with hurricane conditions potentially hitting the state Wednesday. The hurricane center’s forecast for Ian “has shown an unprecedented rate of strengthening from a tropical storm to powerful hurricane,” CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said. Ian’s winds intensified from 85 mph Monday afternoon to 100 mph at 5 p.m. ET. Forecasters expect Ian to become a major hurricane before it lashes the US, with winds reaching 111 mph or greater. Conditions in western Cuba are expected to deteriorate this evening and through the night, with “significant wind and storm surge impacts expected,” the hurricane center said. Ian will likely be a Category 3 with winds of 120 mph or greater when it moves over Cuba Tuesday morning, forecasters say, and it’s also expected to produce flash flooding and possible mudslides in parts of Jamaica and Cuba. A total of 19,283 people have been evacuated from their homes in the Western Cuban province of Pinar del Río, according to the state news channel TelePinar. “Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday,” the center said. In the US, more than 15 million people are expected to suffer at least tropical storm-force winds in cities including Tampa, Orlando, Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Miller said. A storm surge warning has been added for portions of western Florida with 5 to 10 feet of surge possible, according to the latest advisory. The warning of “life-threatening inundation” stretches from Anclote River southward to Flamingo and includes Tampa Bay.

Ian Becomes Major Hurricane as it Crosses Cuba --Hurricane Ian became a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) overnight shortly before it began crossing western Cuba. The stage is set for landfall in Florida later this week. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Ian was located at 22.3 N and 83.7 W, near the western tip of Cuba and about 430 miles south of Tampa, Fla. Hurricane Ian is packing top sustained winds of 125 mph and is churning to the north at 12 mph. Ian’s minimum central pressure has fallen to 952 mb, or 28.12 inches of mercury. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. For Florida, a Hurricane Warning is in place for Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch is in place north of Anclote River to the Suwannee River on the western side of Florida.Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the following areas:

• Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
• Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
• Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida
• Suwanee River to Anclote River, Florida
• Volusia/Brevard County line south to Jupiter Inlet, Florida
• Lake Okeechobee, Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for the Anclote River south to Flamingo and Tampa Bay, Fla. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge west to Key West, the Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, the Aucilla River to Anclote River, Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line, and Saint Johns River in Florida. Hurricane Ian will follow a northerly track across from Cuba as it churns into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today. Hurricane Ian is forecast to intensify to a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale later today. A northeast turn is expected later Wednesday into Thursday, and Ian could make landfall along Florida’s central Gulf Coast Wednesday night into early Thursday.Hurricane force winds, very heavy rainfall, flooding, and a dangerous storm surge is in progress over western Cuba this morning. Similar weather will spread north first across the Florida Keys today and across much of the western Florida Gulf Coast from early Wednesday to late Thursday. In fact, Ian will deliver a period of destructive winds to western Cuba and is likely to do the same later this week near the Tampa Bay metro area.Ian will likely slow down considerably near the central Florida Gulf Coast and then rumble over north-central Florida through Friday. That will lead to a lengthy period of high winds in addition to astounding rainfall totals from Cuba to Florida. Four to 12 inches with isolated totals of up to 20 inches are likely here. This will result in flash flooding and mudslides, especially in Cuba, and in areas of poor drainage or where debris blocks storm drains. Large swells will lead to life-threatening surf and rip currents, and Ian’s strength and size will result in a dangerous storm surge as high as 5 to 10 feet. The highest storm surge flooding is forecast from Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, Fla., including Tampa Bay! A storm surge up to 5 feet is anticipated over south Florida to the Florida Keys, as well as from Anclote River to Aucilla River, Fla., along Florida’s Gulf Coast. Finally, Ian could spawn brief tornado spin ups, especially along and northeast of where the center makes landfall.

Ian strengthens into major Category 3 hurricane as storm makes landfall in Cuba - Hurricane Ian strengthened into a major Category 3 storm early Tuesday morning as it made landfall in western Cuba, U.S. officials said. Landfall was just southwest of the town of La Coloma in the Pinar Del Río province at around 4:30 a.m. ET, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an early Tuesday morning update.In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a statewide emergency, saying Ian could hit the state as a punishing Category 4 hurricane, with wind speeds topping 130 mph. A direct hit on Tampa Bay is expected as soon as Wednesday."That’s going to cause a huge amount of storm surge," DeSantis said. "You’re going to have flood events. You’re going to have a lot of different impacts.”Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated from Pinar del Río as authorities sent in emergency and medical personnel ahead of the storm's arrival this week, The Associated Press reported. Two hours east, in Havana, fishermen hauled out their boats, city workers unclogged storm drains, and residents expressed alarm at the prospect of flooding, according to the AP. "I hope we escape this one, because it would be the end of us," Abel Rodrigues, 54, told the AP. "We already have so little.” Earlier on Monday, Ian passed by the nearby Cayman Islands with no major damage reported. Emergency officials issued an "all clear" notification at 3 p.m. local time, and Premier Wayne Panton said the British territory was "very fortunate to have been spared the worst of a potentially very serious storm." By Monday night, Ian, moving northwest at 13 mph, was about 105 miles east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba, with top sustained winds increasing to 105 mph. Forecasters expect Ian to hit Florida’s west coast as a major hurricane as early as Tuesday. Cuba said that it was evacuating 50,000 people in Pinar del Río province, that it had sent in medical and emergency personnel and that it was taking steps to protect food and other crops in warehouses. The center of the hurricane passed to the west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, but no major damage had been reported there. As the storm headed for Florida, oil companies evacuated workers from deepwater platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, airports in Tampa and Pinellas County announced that they would close Tuesday, and American Airlines announced travel waivers for people flying into or out of 20 airports in Florida and the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ian makes landfall in western Cuba as a Category 3 storm, threatening a path of destruction as it churns toward Florida - — Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Ian made landfall in western Cuba early Tuesday morning while on its trek toward Florida, where residents in some coastal areas are already evacuating.The hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, made landfall just southwest of the town of La Coloma in the Pinar del Rio Province of Cuba at 4:30 a.m., the National Hurricane Center said.The region is enduring significant wind and storm surge, which could raise water levels by as much as 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba the hurricane center said.The storm is expected to move north-northwest and across the island, leaving devastating wind damage in its path, according to the center.It is expected to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and continue churning toward Florida, passing west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approaching the west coast of Florida late Wednesday into Thursday.The hurricane is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge along much of Florida’s west coast by mid-week, as well as hurricane-force winds.While its exact path remains uncertain, projections show the Tampa area could get its first direct hit from a hurricane since 1921, and impacts on the area could be devastating.“This is something that we haven’t seen in our lifetime … So we definitely need to take it seriously,” said Meteorologist Rick Davis of the National Weather Service’s Tampa office.A hurricane warning is in place from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, according to the latest advisory from the hurricane center. This means “hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within 24 to 36 hours,” the center said.Additionally, a tropical storm warning was issued for the Middle Florida Keys and portions of the state’s east and west coasts. A tropical storm watch was issued for the southeast coast from Deerfield Beach north to Jupiter Inlet, the hurricane center said.

Hurricane Ian Takes Aim at Florida After Leaving Cuba in the Dark - The New York Times — Hurricane Ian lashed Cuba on Tuesday with heavy rain and winds of up to 125 miles per hour, knocking out power to the entire island and killing two people, according to the authorities. The Ministry of Mines and Energy said the power grid had collapsed in the wake of the storm, leaving the country in the dark as it tried to recover from heavy flooding and extensive damage. Before the sun set, residents braved wind and rain to search for food and basic supplies, lining up under overhangs to buy a piece of chicken or a bottle of oil. At least two people were killed, according to local news reports. One was a man in San Juan y Martínez who was electrocuted while trying to disconnect a wind turbine that he used to irrigate his field. The second was a 43-year-old woman who died in San Luis when one of the walls of her house collapsed. Cuba’s western provinces, where the hurricane made landfall, have been the hardest hit. Videos shared on social media from the town of Coloma, along Cuba’s southern coast, showed people inside their homes with water up to their knees. The hurricane comes as Cuba continues to recover from one of the worst periods of financial hardship in the country’s history, with the nation’s ailing infrastructure already producing widespread power blackouts. The financial misery, along with ongoing political repression, sparked one of the largest protest movements in decades last year. The island has long borne the brunt of Atlantic storms. In 2008, two hurricanes, Gustav and Ike, blasted across the country, leaving at least seven people dead, damaging crops and buildings, and setting off more than 150 landslides in Havana. On Tuesday, flooding in western Cuba damaged houses and tobacco crops, an important agricultural industry. In the municipality of San Luis, north of the city of Santiago de Cuba, one of the largest tobacco growing areas had been decimated. Thousands of families were evacuated and widespread power outages were reported in the western city of Pinar del Río. Tourists in places like Varadero, a popular beach resort in the country’s north, were relocated to more secure locations. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are temporarily moving their practice sessions from Tampa to the Miami Dolphins’ training complex in Miami Gardens, Fla. Tampa Bay’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Sunday is still on, though the N.F.L. said it would continue to monitor the situation.  Florida airports were reporting flight delays, cancellations and even closures ahead of the hurricane force winds expected along much of the state beginning Wednesday morning. Airports in Tampa, St. Petersburg and Orlando had announced the grounding of all their flights as precautionary measures, while others were reporting delays in parts of the state outside the hurricane’s path and its associated watches and warnings. Tampa International Airport — which was in the middle of the hurricane’s projected path as of Tuesday evening — had canceled more incoming flights than any other airport in the United States as of Tuesday afternoon, registering 146 cancellations and 15 delays for the day, according to the flight tracking website FlightAware. It suspended all operations as of 5 p.m. Tuesday.  The airport is close to Tampa Bay, so storm surge and flooding are a top concern, he said. “We are talking potentially a lot of water that could be on our airport,” Mr. Tiliacos said. He added, “To my knowledge, we have never had a storm of this magnitude that’s impacted us.” .  Joseph W. Lopano, chief executive of the public authority that manages the Tampa airport, said that airlines were also moving aircraft to safer places on Tuesday. He said the economic impact of closing the airport would be “in the millions.” He added, “unfortunately Ian is not giving us a choice.” Hurricanes are a way of life in Florida, but a major one has not hit the Tampa Bay area in more than a hundred years. A hundred and one, to be precise.

 2.5 million Floridians ordered to evacuate as Hurricane Ian barrels closer -At least 2.5 million Floridians are currently under some type of evacuation order as Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified into a major hurricane on Tuesday. "There's still uncertainty with where that exact landfall will be. But just understand, the impacts are going to be far, far broader than just where the eye of the storm happens to make landfall in some areas," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a news conference Tuesday morning. "There will be catastrophic flooding and life-threatening storm surge." Much of Florida's Gulf Coast, South and Central Florida is under Hurricane Warnings, including Tampa, Venice and Fort Myers, Naples and Orlando ahead of the expected wind, rain and storm surge from Hurricane Ian. Given Florida's unique coastline, the topography lends itself to the state being highly susceptible to storm-surge flooding during hurricanes. Several counties along Florida's west coast have already issued mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders, including Tampa Bay where 300,000 people alone are being told to evacuate their beachfront property as forecasters say storm surge will create massive problems for the state's third-largest metro area. "In order to protect residents, we are issuing a mandatory evacuation order for Zone A, recommending a voluntary evacuation for Zone B and opening emergency shelters," According to the FOX Forecast Center, storm surge could reach as high as 10 feet along portions of Florida's west coast, though the entire western Florida coast is susceptible to some level of storm surge. Storm surge is the rise of water levels caused directly by a storm and does not take into account rainfall or wave size, which can add additional feet on top of a storm's surge. Wise said the evacuation orders and opening of shelters began at 2 p.m. Monday. "We expect to have to evacuate 300,000 people, and that will take some time," she said. "That's why we are starting this today." Many tolls across central-west Florida are suspended to make evacuations quicker. SunRail will close at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday. Check FL511.org for traffic conditions before you hit the road. Wise also said issuing mandatory evacuations wasn't an easy decision to make. "We did not make this decision easily," Wise said. "But the storm poses a serious threat, and we must do everything we can to protect our residents." Wise said shelters should only be used as a last resort. "They are not comfortable places," she said. "They could be crowded, and they could be noisy, and you could be in a shelter for days." Instead, residents are asked to check with friends, relatives and co-workers who live at least 20 miles from the coast for a place to stay if needed. "We're expecting sustained tropical or hurricane winds to our barrier islands and coastal communities for as long as 48 hours, with the earliest arrival predicted for 8 p.m. Tuesday," said Manatee County Administrator Scott Hopes. "This is a worst-case scenario with a very strong, slow-moving storm just to the west of us." Officials will close the Clearwater-Saint Petersburg airport at 1 p.m. Tuesday. Tampa International Airport will close at 5 p.m. Tuesday. Orlando International Airport is set to close at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday.

Ian grinds toward Fla. with deadly winds and walls of water - The Tampa Bay area has all the hallmarks of hurricane vulnerability: a large urban population, extensive coastal development and a network of easily flooded rivers. The only thing missing has been a hurricane. But with Hurricane Ian bringing Category 4 winds, 10 feet of storm surge and up to 25 inches of rain, experts are warning about massive and lasting damage to Florida’s second-most populous metro area. “There will be catastrophic flooding and life-threatening storm surge,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Tuesday. Disaster modeler Enki Research said Ian would cause at least $54 billion in damage — roughly the same cost of Hurricane Andrew, the notorious 1992 storm that wrecked southeast Florida and ranks as the seventh-costliest U.S. disaster since 1980. Ian’s forward movement began slowing Tuesday, raising concerns that it would stall over a region with millions of people and pulverize it with rain, much like Hurricane Harvey did over Houston in 2017. “Floridians are going to experience the impacts from this storm for a very long time,” Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell said at a White House briefing. Tampa’s vulnerability has been concealed by a stunning streak of good fortune. Major hurricanes such as Charley and Ivan — two Category 4 storms in 2004 — veered away from the area at the last minute and caused relatively minor flood and wind damage. Hillsborough County, home to the city of Tampa, is Florida’s fourth-most populous county with nearly 1.5 million people. But its flood damage has been relatively low. The county ranks 17th in the value of flood-insurance claims paid by FEMA — behind Gulf County on the Florida Panhandle, with just 14,000 residents, according FEMA records analyzed by E&E News. Tampa, the state’s third-most populous city, ranks 20th in flood claims paid. “We’re talking about impacts in a part of Florida that hasn’t seen a major direct impact in nearly 100 years,” Criswell said in an apparent reference to a Category 3 storm that hit the Tampa Bay area in 1921. “I do have concerns about complacency,” Criswell added. In the 1920s, Tampa was a town of about 50,000, surrounded by citrus trees. Now, it’s the heart of a metro area of 3.2 million people with extensive waterfront development including a pro football stadium, an international airport and a high-end shopping district. University of South Florida oceanographer Gary Mitchum said waterfront construction was spurred in part by the absence of a major storm. “We’ve done a lot of development in low-lying areas and we haven’t been hit in a long time, so there’s a little bit of, it can’t happen here,” Mitchum said. “We’ve had storm surge events and flooding, but nothing major.”

Hurricane Ian intensifies into a monster with climate markings - Florida is bracing for impact as Hurricane Ian barrels toward the state’s vulnerable Gulf Coast. The storm’s exact pathway remains uncertain, but it looks increasingly likely the Tampa Bay region will start feeling its effects Wednesday. In a worst-case scenario, the area would face its first direct landfall of a major hurricane in more than 100 years. There’s also the chance Hurricane Ian stalls out on the coastline, which could bring a catastrophic combination of heavy rains and storm surge. Currently clocking in as a Category 3, Ian has intensified faster than any other hurricane this Atlantic season. It strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane early Monday, then rapidly ballooned into a major storm by early Tuesday morning. As it transitioned into a hurricane on Monday, Hurricane Ian officially met the National Hurricane Center’s threshold for “rapid intensification” — that’s when a storm swells unusually quickly, gaining at least 35 miles per hour in wind speeds within 24 hours or less. It continued rapidly intensifying into Tuesday, and is on the cusp of becoming a Category 4. Hurricane Ian presents a stark lesson in the dangers of rapidly strengthening storms, which give coastal communities little time to prepare for impact. It’s also a reminder of the ways climate change is transforming tropical cyclones. Hurricanes are expected to rapidly intensify more often and potentially at faster rates as the planet continues to warm. That means storms like Ian may become more common in the coming decades. Before Ian even achieved hurricane status, meteorologists predicted it would strengthen at breakneck speed. Some projections suggested the storm could become a major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — within a day or two. Unusually warm waters were the primary fuel for Hurricane Ian’s lightning-fast transformation. Warm ocean temperatures plus favorable wind conditions are the main ingredients for strong storms — and according to NOAA, temperatures in some parts of the Caribbean hovered around 90 degrees as Hurricane Ian was forming. Studies suggest that conditions may become more suitable for rapid intensification in the future, as climate change heats up Earth. In fact, several studies indicate it’s already happening.A 2018 study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that hurricanes in certain parts of the Atlantic are rapidly intensifying faster than they used to. The paper suggested that warming ocean waters are the likely culprit — although it noted that the warming so far could be a combination of human-caused climate change, natural climate fluctuations and other factors.A separate paper, published in 2019, also found that Atlantic hurricanes are intensifying at faster rates. That study used climate models to investigate the potential causes, finding that human-caused climate change likely has played a role.

Hurricane Ian Sucks Tampa Bay Dry Ahead Of Landfall - Stunning video and photos taken along Florida’s western coast show Tampa Bay waterways sucked completely dry ahead of Hurricane Ian’s arrival Wednesday.Ian’s powerful winds pushed water away from the shore and into the gulf, similar to what happened just before Hurricane Irma’s arrival in 2017.But experts warned that the receding tide, called a negative storm surge, is only temporary and that water will return, likely at much higher levels.“Don’t go out there. It’s so dangerous to go out there,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said at a news conference Wednesday morning. “Even if you see the water receding, it’s not the time to go out there and look at it and collect shells or whatever it is. We’ve seen this, and these types of storms, when the winds come down, when the winds decrease, that water comes back in and can be incredibly dangerous.”Florida’s Division of Emergency Management echoed that message on Twitter, warning that the returning water could be life-threatening.The massive Category 4 storm made landfall near Cayo Costa, roughly 90 miles south of Tampa, later Wednesday afternoon.The low-lying Tampa Bay area is predicted to see a storm surge of four to six feet, with extreme beach erosion and water that may extend several miles inland, according to the National Weather Service.The storm surge will be greater farther south along the coast, with some areas at risk of a surge of up to 18 feet. In addition, hurricane will dump up to five inches of rainfall per hour as it crosses the state while losing speed and prolonging the deluge, said Graham.“This is going to be a storm that we talk about for many years to come,” Graham said.

Hurricane Ian Nears Category 5 Storm Status Before Florida Landfall - Prior to making landfall in Florida, Hurricane Ian has strengthened into an extremely dangerous category 4 storm, nearing category 5 status with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Walt Disney World is now under a hurricane warning, as the system is expected to approach Orlando tonight. In this, we’ll update you on the Ian’s status with advisories from the National Hurricane Center, with graphics from the NHC, NOAA, NWS, and more. The National Hurricane Center updates its Hurricane Ian Advisory every few hours, at which point it shifts the ‘cone of uncertainty’ representing the range of possibilities for the storm’s center that extends up to five days into the future. The cone of uncertainty predicts the hurricane’s path, but even outside of the cone, ferocious winds, storm surge, heavy rains, and other intense weather can be felt. Let’s start with the latest of these advisories, issued at 11 am by the NHC (plus accompanying new graphics): In the 11 am update, the National Hurricane Center reported that the center of Hurricane Ian was approximately 45 miles west-northwest of Naples, 50 miles south-southwest of Punta Gorda, and 165 miles south-southwest of Orlando. The system is moving north-northeast at 9 mph and remains a Category 4 system.Data from an Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was “absolutely critical” in diagnosing the rapid intensification of Hurricane Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of about 135 kt a few hours ago.Since that time, high-resolution Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000 ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold of Category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this advisory.According to the 11 am NHC update, Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line with the latest consensus aids.One important change is that Ian is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force winds on the east coast of Florida.This necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian’s intensity.Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast for Hurricane Ian is raised from the previous one.

Category 4 Hurricane “Ian” makes landfall in southwestern Florida, U.S. - (video) NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Hurricane “Ian” made landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa around 19:05 UTC (15:05 EDT) on September 28, 2022. The hurricane is currently causing catastrophic storm surge, winds and flooding in the Florida Peninsula. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian’s maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 240 km/h (150 mph), making it an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 MB. At 19:10 UTC, the center of Hurricane “Ian” was located about 30 km (20 miles) WNW of Ft. Myers / WSW of Punta Gorda, Florida. The system was moving NNE at 15 km/h (9 mph). Life-threatening and devastating impacts are expected as Ian moves onto southwest Florida, then slowly progresses to the north-northeast, NWS said ahead of the landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, devastating winds, several tornadoes, and significant heavy rain onto already saturated soils is forecasted. Widespread and prolonged flooding and flash flooding are possible across much of Florida. *RARE* first person view of storm surge. This camera is 6 feet off the ground on Estero Blvd in Fort Myers Beach, FL. Not sure how much longer it keeps working. You’ll see it live only on ⁦@weatherchannel⁩ #Ian pic.twitter.com/WwHtvgVxjY When these types of events take place in the U.S, and during tornado seasons/events, it’s good to check out StormWall for the latest videos from various channels.

Ian Becomes Tropical Storm After Catastrophic Hurricane Strike - Ian is now losing strength over eastern Florida and the Atlantic coast. Water levels in Southwest Florida are decreasing after breaking several records for all-time high storm surge in spots like Naples and Fort Myers. Extreme rainfall is also causing flooding. More than a foot of rainfall has occurred in several Southwest Florida counties. Hunker down in the lowest dry floor of the structure you are in. Winds are rapidly calming, but gusts on Wednesday were impressive. The highest wind gust recorded so far is 140 mph in Cape Coral, Florida. Sustained winds have been reported as high as 92 mph, also in Cape Coral. The highest sustained winds reported were 115 mph at a private weather station near Port Charlotte, Florida. That station also recorded a wind gust of 132 mph. Hurricane warnings (shaded in purple in the map below) now stretch across the Florida Peninsula from southwest to central to Florida's Space Coast, including Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fort Myers, Orlando and Daytona Beach. This means hurricane conditions are expected. A storm surge warning is also in effect along much of Florida's west coast, from the mouth of the Suwanee River to the Everglades, including Tampa Bay, and also on the Atlantic side from the Flagler-Volusia County line in northeast Florida to the entire Georgia coast to Charleston County, South Carolina, including Florida's St. Johns River. This means life-threatening flooding from rising water moving inland from the coastline is expected. A​ hurricane watch extends from northeast Florida's coast to Charleston County, South Carolina, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm warnings continue north of Boca Raton in southern Florida and from the Florida Big Bend to northeastern Florida and coastal parts of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. Ian's center will now move north-northeastward across East-Central Florida. It may make it to the Atlantic coast at near hurricane intensity, but will eventually weaken to a tropical storm. Ian will likely emerge over the Atlantic waters Thursday before turning back toward the Georgia or South Carolina coasts as a tropical storm or low-end hurricane Friday and Friday night. Storm surge will begin to recede in Southwest Florida through Thursday, while water levels will rise in the Tampa Bay region and on the Atlantic coast of northern Florida and Georgia. The map below shows possible peak storm surge inundation, if that happens at the time of high tide, according to the National Hurricane Center. Storm surge is expected to cause flooding on the Atlantic side of northeast Florida and into coastal Georgia and South Carolina beginning Thursday. Given the wind direction out of the northeast as this may occur, the St. Johns River in northeast Florida may back up and flood. D​ue to persistent onshore winds even as Ian's center moves farther away, coastal flooding may last for some time beyond the peak storm surge into Friday or even early Saturday along the areas shown below along the Atlantic Southeast coast.

Hurricane Ian: Cities flooded and power cut as storm crosses Florida - One of the most dangerous storms to hit the US in years has left 2.4 million homes and businesses in Florida without power and floodwaters surging inland. Hurricane Ian made landfall at around 15:10 local time (19:10 GMT) on Wednesday, smashing into the coast with wind speeds of up to 241km/h (150mph). Dramatic scenes saw a hospital roof blown off, cars submerged and trees ripped out of the ground. The category four hurricane was later downgraded to a tropical storm. However, Floridians were warned that the most dangerous 24 hours lay ahead and the mayor of Tampa urged people to shelter in place through the night into Thursday morning. "We are going to get the majority of the rain and the higher winds starting about 20:00, and they are going to last throughout the night," Jane Castor said during a Wednesday evening briefing. In Lee County - the south-west region where Ian made landfall - police were prevented from responding to reports of looting at a petrol station because of the storm damage. As a result, a curfew has been declared "until further notice". Lee County Manager Roger Desjarlais said that the Fort Myers community had "been - to some extent - decimated". According to news agency AFP, some neighbourhoods in the city of 80,000 had been left resembling lakes. Ian is now continuing to move north through Florida. Jacksonville International Airport, based in north-east Florida, cancelled all flights scheduled for Thursday. The storm is forecast to emerge into the Atlantic by Thursday morning. It is expected to reach Georgia and South Carolina on Friday. Virginia has also joined Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida by declaring a state of emergency. Cuba's western coast was hit by Hurricane Ian on Tuesday. Power has now been restored in some areas after the island was plunged into a total blackout. Two people are understood to have been killed in Cuba and more than 20 Cuban migrants are believed to be missing at sea.

'There is no such thing as a hurricane-proof power grid' - Electric utilities in Florida were on high alert Tuesday as Hurricane Ian’s winds and massive storm surge began to threaten the state’s west coast, possibly leading to widespread blackouts that officials said could last for days. Ian was heading Tuesday for an area south of Tampa Bay, according to the National Hurricane Center, and is expected to make landfall in Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon. The hurricane center said Wednesday that Ian has become “an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.” More than 70,000 homes and businesses in Florida were without power early Wednesday, according to PowerOutage.us. That number is expected to climb rapidly as Ian’s outer bands move onshore. Ian presents a major test for the U.S. power sector less than two weeks after Hurricane Fiona knocked out power in Puerto Rico. Ian’s strong winds are likely to topple trees, utility poles and wires, but emergency officials, electric company executives, meteorologists and grid experts warned that the storm’s sloth-like speed and storm surge could bring the most trouble. “I don’t know if we’ve faced that before,” said Ted Kury, director of Energy Studies for the Public Utility Research Center at the University of Florida, referring to the projected peak storm surge of 8 to 12 feet stretching 60 miles along the state’s west coast. That area is south of Tampa Bay — which hasn’t been hit with a major hurricane since Irma in 2017. But Tampa Bay itself hasn’t seen a storm with winds higher than 111 mph since 1921, according to the National Weather Service. Because of its track, Ian is on a path to damage the power grids of three major electric companies all at once. Ian is heading toward the territories of Tampa Electric Co., Duke Energy Florida and Florida Power & Light Co. All three power providers — which are considered to be investor-owned utilities — have mobilized people and supplies in various areas to restore electricity when it is safe to do so. “Hurricane Ian has the potential to cause significant destruction, and we are doing everything we can to prepare for a safe restoration,” said Archie Collins, Tampa Electric’s CEO, in a news release. Tornado warnings also popped up on Florida’s east and west coasts Tuesday night, adding challenges to last-minute preparations. More warnings continued Wednesday. More than 30,000 workers from at least 23 states will be in Florida to help restore electricity, according to the Edison Electric Institute, the trade group for the nation’s investor-owned electric companies. EEI is working with the Department of Energy and the Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council (ESCC) on response efforts.

Hurricane Ian live updates: Deaths reported amid 'life-changing' storm - Ian made landfall near Cayo Costa, an island off the coast of Fort Myers. Ian's winds weakened to 65 mph on Thursday morning, downgrading the system to a tropical storm as it moved over central Florida. The storm made landfall on Florida's west coast on Wednesday as a powerful Category 4 hurricane.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency.The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane warning for the entire coast of South Carolina. A hurricane watch had been in place for the entire state earlier.Now a tropical storm, Ian is expected to become a hurricane again Thursday night before making landfall near Charleston, South Carolina, on Friday morning or early afternoon.Ian currently has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, just 4 mph from returning to hurricane strength.After conducting initial safety assessments, Hillsborough County Administrator Bonnie Wise has removed the evacuation order in place. After hosting more than 8,000 evacuees across 47 shelters, the county is preparing to conclude its sheltering operations or transition shelter availability for evacuees who continue to need assistance."Residents whose homes have been damaged are encouraged to find a safe place to stay. That place might be with family, friends, or at a nearby hotel," the county said in a statement. The county also urged residents heading home to drive with caution, not to drive through obstructions or standing water and to stay away from downed power lines.The Federal Emergency Management Agency's search and rescue teams have been out in the field since 4 a.m. Thursday, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell told "Good Morning America." It will prioritize saving lives and helping people impacted by the storm, who may be trapped. Criswell said FEMA has been hearing reports of people calling 911 through the night and will use information it has gathered in those hours to prioritize rescues in harder-hit areas. "This has been just a catastrophic storm and it's left significant damage in its path," Criswell said. Criswell said FEMA will be able to conduct rescues by land, air and sea. The most significant impacts have been happening in Lee County, where people are without power and water. Criswell also expects impacts across the western coast of Florida. "Water is dangerous. Even though the storm has passed, the water that is there is still dangerous. There's debris, there's chemicals, there could be downed power lines. People need to be careful, they need to stay vigilant," Criswell said. There is potentially major flooding in Orange and Seminole counties and St. Johns River, potentially up to Jacksonville in northeast Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday. "The amount of water that's been rising and will likely continue to rise today, even as the storm is passing, is basically a 500-year flood event. And I know Seminole County has done evacuations, I know they've opened shelters, but we're gonna see a lot of images about the destruction that was done in southwest Florida and obviously we have massive assets there," DeSantis said. The damage caused by the storm will likely take years to repair, he said. "You're looking at a storm that's changed the character of a significant part of our state. And this is going to require not just emergency response now, in the days or weeks ahead. I mean, this is going to require years of effort to be able to rebuild and to come back," DeSantis said.

Hurricane “Ian” - Major disaster declared, possibly the deadliest hurricane in Florida’s history - (video) Hurricane “Ian” made landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa, an island off the coast of Fort Myers, around 19:05 UTC (15:05 EDT) on September 28, 2022, with maximum sustained winds of 240 km/h (150 mph), placing it at the upper end of the Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ian caused a catastrophic storm surge, winds and flooding in the Florida Peninsula, leaving widespread damage and more than 2.6 million customers without power. In a press briefing at FEMA headquarters on September 29, President Joe Biden said ‘this could be the deadliest hurricane in Florida’s history.’ “The numbers are still unclear, but we are hearing early reports of what may be a substantial loss of life,” Biden said. Florida’s deadliest hurricane in history is Okeechobee (1928), with more than 2 500 fatalities. Since 01:00 LT on September 29, search and rescue operations have been underway in response to Hurricane “Ian,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said. Urban Search and Rescue Team 2 was the first on site and the Coast Guard made dozens of rescues overnight. There are 8 USAR teams with more than 800 team members performing search and rescue, and 42 000 lineman responding to the more than 2 million reported power outages. As of 21:00 UTC today, authorities confirmed 7 fatalities. The full extent of the damage is still unknown. Ian is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall over South Carolina on September 30. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear; Neuse River; St. Johns River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Savannah River to Cape Fear. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River; Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina; Pamlico Sound. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina; Pamlico River; Cape Fear River. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River; East of Cape Fear to Surf City. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since tropical storm-force winds will begin well before the center approaches the coast. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina is expected through the end of the week.

Hurricane Ian leaves 21 dead; 10,000 still unaccounted for - Millions of Floridians remained without power, food and water on Friday as emergency crews stepped up their efforts to rescue people still trapped by Hurricane Ian. As the unofficial death toll hit 21, state officials said 10,000 Floridians had yet to be accounted for. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said emergency workers had gone door-to-door to more than 3,000 homes in the hardest-hit areas in search of survivors. “There are over a thousand dedicated rescue personnel who are going up and down the coastline,” DeSantis, a Republican, said at a morning news conference at the Florida Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. At least 700 Floridians had been rescued, mostly by air. As Ian prepared to make landfall in South Carolina on Friday, Florida officials said the Category 4 hurricane that slammed their state with 150-mph winds on Wednesday could rank as the biggest natural disaster to ever hit the state. The governor said that officials had contacted 20,000 Floridians who filled out a “shelter-in-place” survey, indicating that they planned to remain in their homes to ride out the storm, but that they had heard back from only 10,000 of those residents. With cellphone connectivity “sparse in some areas,” DeSantis urged people to use a new website — missing.fl.gov — to connect with family members and help search-and-rescue teams find any missing Floridians. Thousands of Floridians are also lacking access to food and water. DeSantis said emergency workers had set up food and water distribution centers in Lee and Charlotte counties, using the training facilities of the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins. The governor said the state had evacuated six health care facilities in southwest Florida that “were having problems with water or problems with power for an extended period of time.” DeSantis said state workers had also inspected and reopened 800 bridges and cleared more than 1,100 miles of roads. As workers dug through the debris, city officials in Fort Myers Beach said that 90 percent of the homes had been destroyed. Emergency crews planned to use barges to reach hundreds of people trapped on Sanibel Island after a causeway that served as the only access to the Florida mainland collapsed. The governor said Fort Myers Beach was “ground zero and obviously very important” but that Ian had also caused widespread destruction farther inland, noting that 99 percent of the residents in Hardee County in central Florida were still without electricity. Across the state, 1.9 million customers had yet to have their power restored, DeSantis said.

Ian ravaged one of the fastest-growing areas in the U.S. - Hurricane Ian’s path of destruction cut through some of the fastest-growing counties in the nation, pulverizing communities whose populations have doubled and tripled in recent decades during a period of deceptive atmospheric calm. Ian made landfall Wednesday afternoon off the coast of Lee County, Fla., where the population has more than doubled since 1990 to nearly 800,000 residents. Counties in Ian’s path through west and central Florida include Osceola, whose population has nearly tripled since 1990, and Sumter, where an influx of people has pushed its population to over three times what it was 30 years ago. \ The “extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane,” as NOAA’s National Hurricane Center described Ian, potentially flooded hundreds of thousands of homes without flood insurance — maybe millions — and wrecked countless buildings erected under lax construction standards. “The story of Florida is the story of development happening at times and places where it probably shouldn’t,” said Jonathan Webber of Florida Conservation Voters. Ian developed as a rare triple threat, causing destruction with winds of 155 miles per hour, storm surge of 12 feet, and two feet or more of rainfall that flooded inland areas. Ian strengthened Wednesday to a Category 4 storm, with its howling winds almost reaching the mythic status of Category 5, which starts at 157 mph. Only four Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. since 1900. “This is going to be a storm we talk about for many years to come,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said at a briefing Wednesday. Ian will cause devastation “not just on the southwest coast [of Florida] but also inland.” Ian weakened overnight to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds as it moved northeast across the Florida peninsula toward the Atlantic. It’s forecast to make a second landfall in South Carolina near the Georgia line Friday afternoon. The storm will expose a wide range of vulnerabilities in the nation’s most hurricane-prone state including a failing property insurance market, a widespread lack of flood insurance and breakneck development. Florida has some of the nation’s strongest statewide building codes, which were adopted after Hurricane Andrew demolished southwest Florida in 1992. But the new codes didn’t take effect until 2001 and apply only to structures that were built or substantially repaired since then. “The level of damage is typically going to be directly related to the year the home was built,” said Leslie Chapman-Henderson, president of the Florida-based Federal Alliance for Safe Homes. The new codes “should be a very positive factor” on limiting damage to homes that were built under them, Chapman-Henderson said. But with Ian’s winds hitting 155 miles per hour, the damage to buildings “will still be extraordinary.” The rainfall forecast also is alarming because it will create massive flooding in inland areas where few people have flood insurance, said Craig Fugate, a former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the past head of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. CoreLogic Inc., a real estate analytics firm, projected that 7.2 million homes in Florida — worth a combined $1.6 trillion — are at risk of being damaged by flash flooding.

Floridians could face weeks without power if Ian leaves grid 'beyond repair' -Hurricane Ian’s wreckage is poised to leave millions of Floridians without power, possibly for weeks — and could worsen a supply-chain crunch that threatens the nation’s readiness for future disasters. More than 2.5 million electricity customers in Florida had lost service as of Thursday morning, with many more outages expected as the Category 4 hurricane lumbered across the state. Parts of the grid will experience damage “beyond repair,” the CEO of the state’s largest power utility warned, telling reporters not to expect an instant resumption of power. “Repairing can be done often in hours or days,” Florida Power & Light chief executive Eric Silagy said during a media call Wednesday. “Rebuilding can take many days or weeks. So we are preparing for that rebuilding effort as we speak.” “This is a catastrophic storm,” he added. “There will be catastrophic damage across the entire system,” he said. Adding to the challenges is a nationwide shortfall of critical electrical equipment, such as certain kinds of transformers, that crews may need to restore power in parts of Florida. Wait times to obtain some supplies are now as long as two to three years, said Joy Ditto, CEO of the American Public Power Association. That could mean a scramble to obtain parts necessary for the Ian recovery, forcing providers to drain their limited backup supplies or swap equipment with other utilities. FPL’s Silagy said his company has equipment on hand to deal with this hurricane. Still, Ditto said she worries that the U.S. grid will be even more vulnerable when the next storm or cyberattack hits and there aren’t enough components to go around. “Of course, we’ll prioritize restoration to existing [infrastructure] as much as possible,” she said, “but you’re just depleting stockpiles elsewhere. If people are willing to provide you those transformers elsewhere in the country, but then they get a winter storm, you’re robbing Peter to pay Paul essentially.”

Billions likely needed for roads and bridges ripped up by Hurricane Ian - Hurricane Ian’s rampage across Florida disabled two major bridges, severed access along an interstate, canceled thousands of flights and destroyed untold numbers of homes and businesses — all of which will likely need billions in federal aid to piece back together. The hurricane, which made landfall as a powerful Category 4 storm, is expected to cause major travel disruptions for weeks to come in the region, and emergency officials are still trying to assess the damage to I-75 near Fort Myers, where the sheer amount of devastation has made access difficult. “As you know, some of those areas, Cape Coral and the city of Fort Myers, they got really inundated and devastated by this storm,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said. “The hope is all of [I-75] will be open. But most of it is open and gives us what we need to be able to continue to move supplies into the area.” Flooding is also a major concern farther inland, with major airports in Tampa and Orlando shuttered, thousands of flights canceled and some airlines suspending operations through Saturday. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Thursday on MSNBC that some airports will probably remain closed for some time and urged people not to fly recreational drones in damaged areas, so emergency personnel are left free to operate. Airlines have canceled thousands of flights into and out of Florida, and though that will ease as the recovery begins in earnest, the disruptions to aviation are causing headaches around the country, with delays cropping up at other airport hubs in Charlotte, N.C., Atlanta, Chicago and New York. At least two major bridges have been decimated — photos showed a chunk of the Sanibel Causeway missing — that together mean some 20,000 people will be cut off from road access for the foreseeable future. The state will need to assess an untold number of other bridges. Congress is poised to enact a stopgap government funding bill by midnight Friday, but it doesn’t include disaster relief funding specifically earmarked for Hurricane Ian. Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the Senate’s top GOP appropriator, said it wasn’t possible to include additional disaster aid to respond to Hurricane Ian at the last minute, but that the Disaster Relief Fund should have adequate reserves for the immediate term, including for Ian.

Tropical Storm Ian heads for Georgia, Carolinas: live updates - After bringing record storm surge flooding and 150 mph winds to Florida's west coast, a re-intensifying Tropical Storm Ian has emerged over the Atlantic Ocean north of Cape Canaveral, on its way to a damaging encounter with the Carolinas.Hurricane warnings have been issued for the South Carolina coastline. The storm has knocked out power to about 2.6 million customers across Florida, with outages mounting in the Jacksonville area as the storm's winds knock down trees and power lines. Ian is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane when it makes second landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. As of 11am eastern, the storm's sustained winds had already intensified to 70 mph, 5 mph shy of hurricane status.

• Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the entire South Carolina coastline, and storm surge warnings extend into Georgia.
• Hurricane Center forecasters warn the storm will have a large wind field as it approaches the coast, which could add to storm surge heights.
• A storm surge of between 4 to 7 feet above normally dry ground is anticipated from Edisto Beach to the South Santee River, which includes Charleston.
• The region from northern Florida to Edisto beach, South Carolina is forecast to see 4 to 6 feet of surge.
• The storm will bring the threat of inland flooding as well, which will not be limited to Georgia and South Carolina, according to the National Weather Service.
• The agency has issued a "moderate risk," or level 3 out of 4 on its risk scale, for flash flooding in South Carolina on Friday, with that danger moving north and east through the weekend.
• The NWS is predicting a large swath of 4 to 6-inch rainfall amounts from Charleston, South Carolina, to southeastern Virginia. Heavy rain could fall as far north as Washington, D.C., this weekend.
• The governors of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia declared states of emergency earlier this week.

 Super Typhoon “Noru” leaves 8 fatalities in the Philippines, landfall in Vietnam expected on September 28 near Da Nang - The number of fatalities caused by the passage of Super Typhoon “Noru” over the Philippines on September 25, 2022, rose to 8 on September 27. The typhoon is now approaching central Vietnam, with landfall expected near Da Nang, Vietnam early September 28 (UTC). Weather authorities in Vietnam said Noru is expected to be similar to Storm Xangsane which hit central Vietnam in September 2006, leaving 76 people dead and missing, nearly 350 000 houses and 1 000 vessels sunk or damaged. The Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said on Tuesday morning, September 27, that it has received reports of at least 8 fatalities from Super Typhoon “Noru” – known as Karding in the Philippines. These deaths include 5 rescuers in Bulacan, 2 people in Zambales, and 1 victim in Quezon. Earlier Tuesday, NDRRMC put the death toll at nine. Three people are also reported missing in Mercedes, Camarines Norte.1 In an initial assessment, the Department of Agriculture (DA) pegged Karding’s damage to agriculture at 141 million PHP ($2.4 million USD).2 Damage and losses have been reported in the Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, and Calabarzon, with a volume of production loss of 5 886 metric tons and 16 229 ha (40 100 acres) of agricultural areas. Affected commodities include rice, corn, and high-value crops. Additional damage and losses are expected, the DA said. Noru reintensified after exiting the Philippines and entering the warm waters of the East China Sea.

 Massive landslide damages dam wall in Arunachal Pradesh, India - (video) A temporary guard wall of the Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project (SLHP) at Gerukamukh, Arunachal Pradesh has been damaged by a large landslide caused by heavy rain over the past couple of days. According to officials, the project’s intake tunnel has been closed due to the damage. Two of the five tunnels of the hydroelectric project have been shut down by the National Hydro Electric Power Corporation (NHPC) to prevent flooding in the Lakhimpur district districts downstream of the Subansiri River.1 They added the current damage will not affect the dam much because it was only a temporary structure. A similar incident happened on the project site two years ago. While officials said that no flooding will happen in downstream areas, workers engaged at the construction site are the most vulnerable to this situation as another collapse would mean disaster for the entire area.

Large sinkhole swallows 2 cars, leaving 2 people missing and 3 injured, Guatemala - A large sinkhole opened up on a street south of Guatemala City on September 25, 2022, swallowing 2 cars and leaving 2 people missing and 3 injured.Officials said the 3 injured people fell into the hole in their vehicle and were rescued several hours later by emergency services.Two missing people – reportedly a woman and her teenage daughter – were supposedly traveling in another car that also fell in, their relatives told journalists.¹Relief corps and members of the Guatemalan army entered the sinkhole with a special team in search of the two missing persons, without success so far, although they did pull a vehicle out. The sinkhole was caused by heavy rains in the municipality of Villa Nueva.

 ‘Desert tsunami’ hit Death Valley’s Devils Hole after M7.6 earthquake in Mexico - (video) Although more than 2 400 km (1 500 miles) away, the M7.6 earthquake in Mexico on September 19, 2022, triggered 1.2 m (4 feet) tall waves in Death Valley’s Devils Hole. A colloquial term for the event is a ‘desert tsunami.’ Devils Hole is a cave or a pool of water about 3 m (10 feet) wide, 21 m (70 feet) long, and more than 150 m (500 feet) deep. It’s located in Amargosa Valley, Nevada. The cave is a window into a vast aquifer and an unusual indicator of seismic activity around the world. According to the National Parks Service, ‘large earthquakes as far away as Japan, Indonesia and Chile have caused the water to ‘slosh’ in Devils Hole like water in a bathtub. Waves may splash as high as 2 meters (6.5 feet) up the walls, sweeping clean the shallow shelf so important to the pupfish.’

Seismic activity beneath Mauna Loa gradually increasing over the past 2 months, Hawai’i - Seismic activity beneath the Mauna Loa volcano has been gradually increasing over the past 2 months. In addition, a small seismic swarm started on September 23, with most earthquakes in a cluster about 5 km (3.1 miles) wide and -2 to 1 km (-1.2 to 0.6 miles) below the surface. The Aviation Color Code is at Yellow and the Volcano Alert Level at Advisory. The swarm started at around 12:30 UTC on September 23. By 20:29 UTC, HVO registered 38 earthquakes beneath the summit caldera region with most earthquakes in a cluster about 5 km (3.1 miles) wide and -2 to 1 km (-1.2 to 0.6 miles) below the surface.1 These earthquakes may result from changes in the magma storage system and/or may be part of normal re-adjustments of the volcano due to changing stresses within it. “Seismic activity beneath Mauna Loa has been gradually increasing over the past two months,” HVO Scientist-in-Charge Ken Hon said, adding that small earthquake swarms are considered a normal part of this increase in activity. There are currently no indications that magma is moving toward the surface and other monitoring systems are displaying normal behavior. Levels of seismicity and deformation remain below those recorded during the winter of 2021. The last eruption at this volcano lasted from March 25 to April 15, 1984 (VEI 0).

 Measure and Regulate Embodied Carbon in Everything -- In my role as a lecturer teaching Sustainable Design at Ryerson University’s Faculty of Communication And Design, I spent the last few days marking examinations with the first question being: “What is embodied carbon and why is it so important?” Perhaps the clearest definition came from RSID student Kara Rotermund:“Embodied carbon is the net carbon emissions from all of the consumed energy used in the processes to produce and construct a building. Essentially, embodied carbon is the carbon it took to make the building, and operational carbon is the carbon it takes to run the building. In this way, embodied carbon is not actually embodied at all, but is actually the upfront carbon emissions. Embodied carbon is like our environmental down payment, and operational carbon is like the ongoing environmental mortgage payment, speaking strictly metaphorically. The two are how we calculate the building’s carbon footprint.”But much like people buying houses, many worry more about the mortgage payment than the upfront purchase price. Not many people worry about embodied carbon. And if they do at all, it is about buildings, when it is an issue in everything from cars to computers to infrastructure. As more of our stuff, from cars to tools, run on electricity, as our electrical grids get cleaner, as our building efficiencies get better, then the issues of embodied or upfront carbon become more important.This appears to be a fundamental principle that applies to everything, which I will pretentiously call the “ironclad rule of carbon”: As we electrify everything and decarbonize the electricity supply, emissions from embodied carbon will increasingly dominate and approach 100% of emissions.This can be seen in a recent Treehugger post, “A Primer on Reducing Embodied Carbon,” where KPMB Architects demonstrated that in certain cases, choosing the wrong insulation can be worse for carbon emissions than choosing no insulation at all. This is counterintuitive but in an all-electric building with a low-carbon supply, the greenhouse gas emissions from making certain kinds of XPS foam were greater than the operating emissions and would be forever. Yet designers and builders continue to buy acres of XPS foam, to meet codes or standards designed to reduce energy consumption, because they don’t think about this and it isn’t regulated in most jurisdictions.That’s why it has to be measured and monitored. There are tools that can do this, but hardly anyone is using them. In the United Kingdom, the Architects Climate Action Network is demanding changes in planning policies with “whole life-cycle carbon assessments to be completed at the early design stages, to be submitted as part of pre-application enquiries and full planning submissions for all developments.” They also note:

The Department of Energy is opening a lab to capture CO2 from the air. Will it be in Pittsburgh or Morgantown? - Anya Litvak - Of all the ways to decrease carbon emissions, sucking diluted CO2 out of the air is the fruit hanging at the very top of the tree. It's prohibitively expensive and a remedy of last resort.Yet after decades of not doing enough to curb carbon emissions, scientists now believe the last resort will be needed if there’s any chance of averting the worst effects of climate change. The National Energy Technology Laboratory is launching a direct air capture center to speed up the process.Set to be located either at the U.S. Department of Energy lab’s Pittsburgh or Morgantown, W.Va., campus, the new facility will enable researchers in universities and companies to test materials and designs to make the process of capturing CO2 more efficient and less expensive.While air and CO2 are available everywhere, the lab will help researchers figure out the optimum environment for direct air capture.“We want to be able to simulate conditions that go from Antarctica to equatorial Africa,” NETL Director Brian Anderson said. While the cost of direct air capture today is estimated to range between $400 and $1,000 per ton of CO2, DOE’s goal is to bring that down to $100. As things stand, “it is technically feasible to suck CO2 out of the air,” Mr. Anderson said. “The issue is cost, and the issue is scale.” All other decarbonization strategies are cheaper, like carbon capture from the flue gas of a power plant or industrial facility, where the concentration of CO2 is hundreds of times higher than in ambient air — “a lot easier,” Mr. Anderson said. That’s not to mention preventing the emission of CO2 in the first place through energy efficiency, renewable energy and conservation. “But when we’re targeting getting to full net-zero,” Mr. Anderson said, “[and] there are some indications that we need to actually do better than net-zero, we need to be net-negative” — that’s the point at which sucking CO2 out of the air, even at $100 per ton, is increasingly seen as a necessary tool. The Biden administration has set a goal for a net-zero carbon power sector by 2030 and a net-zero economy by 2050. Worldwide, the International Energy Agency’s net-zero by 2050 scenario envisions scaling up direct air capture from the 10,000 tons of CO2 being pulled out of the air that way now to nearly 1 billion tons by 2050. “We need to start talking about carbon removal now because the scale we have to meet by midcentury is significant,” said Peter Psarras, a research assistant professor of chemical engineering and energy policy at the University of Pennsylvania. “We just didn’t do enough of those low-hanging fruit activities,” he added. “If we had done those 20 years ago, maybe we wouldn’t find ourselves in a position where we need carbon removal as an idea.”

Carbon Capture Coalition lobbied to weaken guardrails for expanded carbon capture subsidy - The Inflation Reduction Act includes a major increase of the tax credits that subsidize carbon capture projects, as well as changes that weakened a key guardrail that was included in the earlier Build Back Better bill that would have required carbon capture projects at power plants to capture at least 75% of a facility’s emissions. That change followed lobbying against the 75% capture rate requirement by the Carbon Capture Coalition, whose members include coal, oil, and power companies.Between the Inflation Reduction Act’s introduction on July 27 and its passage on August 7, another change further weakened those guardrails in a way that allows power companies to increase the output of coal and gas power plants after installing a carbon capture project in order to maximize revenue from the carbon capture tax credit, without increasing the size of the carbon capture facility.Combined, the changes could allow power plant operators to receive generous taxpayer subsidies for carbon capture projects, even while increasing their greenhouse gas emissions.The Inflation Reduction Act includes a significant increase in the 45Q tax credit, the main subsidy aimed at catalyzing carbon capture projects. The legislation increased the amount of the 45Q tax credit from $50/ton to $85/ton. If the captured carbon dioxide emissions are used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), the tax credit increases from $35/ton to $60/ton.The bill also creates a direct pay option for the carbon capture tax credit, which the bill did not create for clean energy tax credits for most taxpayers. In a letter to the West Virginia Coal Association, Senator Joe Manchin explained that he made that change specifically to benefit the coal industry:

Carbon capture pipeline opponents bringing case to Knox Co. Board — Navigator CO₂ Ventures has filed for a certificate of authority from the Illinois Commerce Commission, a petition it needs to get approved before it can start construction on the 1,300-mile carbon capture pipeline. The "Heartland Greenway" pipeline is proposed to be built across five states, including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. About 250 miles of the pipeline would run through 13 Illinois counties. The pipeline would capture carbon dioxide from the air, turn it into liquid and then store it in the ground at least a mile deep at a sequestration site in Christian County, Illinois. It would connect to the Big River Resources ethanol plant in Galva and travel through Hancock, Adams, McDonough, Henry, Knox, Fulton, Schuyler, Brown, Pike, Scott, Morgan, Sangamon and Christian counties. The Heartland Greenway pipeline was originally mapped to run through Clinton County, Iowa, but no longer will. Instead, a new pipeline backed by Archer Daniels Midland Company, known as ADM, and Wolf Carbon Solutions has been proposed there. The carbon capture pipelines are meant to help the ethanol industry remain viable as federal and state governments look to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Navigator says it will offset the emissions of 15 million metric tons of CO₂ each year. Opponents are concerned about the pipeline permanently damaging farmland and threatening the safety of residents living nearby. John Feltham is one of those opponents. He owns and operates 222 acres of farmland near Williamsfield in Knox County. He said the pipeline will run through half a mile of his property. "It's going to go through... three layers of erosion control terraces, which overlay drain tile extending across a grass waterway that overlays a parallel drain tile," Feltham said. "The pipeline will cut all of those tile and as it leaves the farm, it's going to pass through one more inlet, or riser, as we call it on the tile system, and if those tiles are obstructed by the pipeline and cannot be reconnected, farmland is permanently damaged." He's also the president of the Citizens Against Heartland Greenway Pipeline organization. On Wednesday, Sept. 28, representatives from the Coalition to Stop CO₂ Pipelines will be speaking to the Knox County Board about its concerns. They'll also be asking the board to intervene in the ICC's proceedings.

Exxon’s Long-Shot Embrace of Carbon Capture in the Houston Area Just Got Massive Support from Congress - Imagine a clean energy future, and you might picture giant turbines twisting in the wind, or electric vehicles zipping quietly down the highway. Fossil fuels become relics, or disappear altogether.ExxonMobil has a different vision. In this story of the future, oil refineries continue to distill crude. Fossil fuel-burning power plants churn away, too.Oil and gas aren’t the problem, Exxon chief executive Darren Woods has said. The problem is their carbon pollution. So last year, Exxon proposed a herculean industrial effort for the Houston area that would allow the region’s fossil fuel infrastructure to continue operating at full throttle for decades while steadily lowering its climate emissions.Using a technology called carbon capture and storage, Exxon said it could collect 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually from industrial smokestacks by 2030, and double that amount by 2040. The company would then compress the gas and deliver it through hundreds of miles of new pipelines to injection wells drilled beneath the Gulf of Mexico, where the climate-warming gas would remain locked away forever in porous rock.Exxon is proposing to create an entirely new industry, built to capture carbon and reinject it, all so that energy companies can keep on pumping and burning oil and gas. The $100 billion mega-project would tie together dozens of facilities owned by 12 of the world’s biggest corporate polluters, including oil majors like Chevron, power generators like Calpine and chemical giants like Dow. It would also require substantial government financing, Exxon said. Exxon and others have already made strides in securing this support. Since the company released its proposal, Congress has given the Energy Department $20 billion to spend on carbon capture and clean hydrogen projects and authorized another $250 billion in loan guarantees for these and other emissions-cutting technologies. Lawmakers also increased the value of a carbon-capture tax incentive such that, if Exxon and its partners meet their 2030 goals for Houston, they would stand to reap more than $4 billion every year from taxpayers for up to 12 years. The prospect of these multibillion-dollar government handouts has riled many climate advocates. “Paying them to do this is paying a ransom on the planet,” said Corey Williams, who until recently served as the research and policy director at Air Alliance Houston, an environmental advocacy group.“We’re not penalizing them, we’re considering paying them,” he added. “That to me couldn’t be more backwards.” Many analysts and environmental advocates received Exxon’s announcement with skepticism. Some critics see the company’s commitment to carbon capture as a form of greenwashing, a disingenuous gesture toward lowering emissions serving as cover for the real investments in oil and gas. Exxon’s only publicly announced investment in carbon capture this year has been a $400 million expansion of an operation in Wyoming, compared with a projected $22.5 billion in total capital expenditures. The company has also said it expects to sell even more oil and gas five years from now than it does today.

The hydrogen money is here, just in time for the hype - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Anya Litvak - There’s always someone in the room objecting to this fuel or that technology, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, said on Thursday.But not hydrogen. “Everybody loves hydrogen.”In a conference filled to the brim with announcements, the U.S. Department of Energy used the occasion of the Global Clean Energy Action Forum to start the race for $7 billion in hydrogen funding. The money, part of the infrastructure bill passed last year, is intended to establish clean hydrogen hubs across the country. Concept papers are due by Nov. 7, and full applications by April 7, 2023.Pennsylvania, and specifically southwestern Pennsylvania, has been waiting for this moment for months. It has assembled numerous coalitions and, on Wednesday, Team PA Foundation released the a road map for the state to pursue hydrogen made from natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration.Shell and Equinor, and possibly U.S. Steel — it’s still deciding — have said they’ll apply for the money. “Nothing gets more attention than hydrogen hubs,” DOE Deputy Secretary David Turk said during a panel on clean hydrogen on Thursday.Hydrogen’s versatility — it can be used to make electricity, to power transportation, to store energy — accounts for its recent popularity, he said.“When I look at energy security challenges, and they are real in Europe, versatility is a very powerful attribute.”DOE Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Thursday that the clean hydrogen market could rise to 10 million tons by the end of the decade and double that in another 10 years.The current global market for hydrogen is 91 million tons, according to the International Energy Agency, but it is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years and decades. While most of the talk at the global energy conference was about hydrogen made through electrolysis, powered either by renewables or nuclear power, it is blue hydrogen, that has dominated discussions in Pennsylvania for several years. Blue hydrogen is made using natural gas, with the resulting CO2 emissions captured and pumped into geologic storage underground.The Team PA report, prepared by the Minneapolis-based Great Plains Institute, notes that of the 279 facilities required to report their emissions to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the state’s 48 natural gas power plants account for nearly half of the CO2 emissions in Pennsylvania. That’s twice as much as coal power plants and eight times more than steel plants.This is one reason they’re viewed as prime targets for decarbonization. Another is that it’s not too difficult to catch CO2 out of the flue stream of a gas plant, and the stream of CO2 is relatively pure.With new incentives embedded in the Inflation Reduction Act, Team PA’s road map found “near-term” opportunities to decarbonize 22 facilities “linked by 933 miles of new infrastructure and [that] would transport 34.7 million metric tons of CO2 per year to storage hubs.” The idea of using natural gas as the main source of hydrogen production has been challenged by various groups who are worried that it’s another way to keep the oil and gas industry relevant and profitable at the expense of cleaner energy sources.The Ohio River Valley Institute, a progressive think tank, has cautioned that the pursuit of a blue hydrogen hub may leave taxpayers and utility rate payers on the hook for subsidies to fossil fuel companies. Its researchers also worried that it might distract resources and attention from other energy and economic development strategies.In a different hearing on hydrogen hubs last month organized by the Pennsylvania Democratic House Policy Committee, Rob Altenburg, director of the PennFuture Energy Center, warned that, “At the beginning of the fracking boom, we were told methane gas could be a ‘bridge fuel’ to aid in the transition to the clean renewable energy we knew we would need. But that is not what happened.“In the years since, Pennsylvania failed to prioritize the policies and investments needed to make that transition to clean energy a reality and instead put all its eggs in the fracking basket.”Scaling up hydrogen — however its made -— will also be a technical challenge. There are questions whether current infrastructure can be repurposed to carry hydrogen. To that end, on Wednesday, North Shore utility Peoples Natural Gas and the University of Pittsburgh announced a partnership that will first study how hydrogen can be incorporated into Peoples’ gas distribution pipelines and then pilot its use there.

NYPA, GE Successfully Pilot Hydrogen Retrofit at Aeroderivative Gas Turbine -A pioneering GE aeroderivative gas turbine project to demonstrate hydrogen combustion as part of a retrofit at an existing U.S. natural gas power plant has successfully utilized blends of 5% to 44% hydrogen with natural gas—some of the highest volumes of hydrogen blended into a commercially operating gas turbine.The project spearheaded by New York Power Authority (NYPA), the nation’s largest state public power organization, and GE demonstrated combustion of the hydrogen-natural gas blend on an LM6000 SAC gas turbine at NYPA’s 2001-opened 45-MW Brentwood Small Clean Power Plant in Suffolk County, Long Island, New York. A key study objective was to demonstrate the gas turbine’s steady state operational capability on hydrogen, as well as to identify an impact on combustion emissions on the LM6000 gas turbine’s outlet emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), and carbon monoxide (CO). Results of the successful test, unveiled on Sept. 23 by project partners the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and GTI Energy, which worked under the research groups’ 2020-launched Low-Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI), will be pivotal for exploring hydrogen integration at aeroderivative gas turbine plants, which are widely used to provide peaking power, project partners said.But while the project represents one of the first utility-scale hydrogen blending projects at an existing gas plant in the U.S., it also unveiled several significant challenges that suggest hydrogen combustion is still a long way from practical implementation at a competitive gas power plant. At Brentwood (Figure 1), which operates in the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market, those challenges include a lack of access to the volume of hydrogen required to run the plant, limited industry experience to run the plant on blended hydrogen fuel, and restrictive code requirements. That’s why for now, NYPA does not plan to apply technology learning from the pilot to continue the project at Brentwood or any of its other gas-fired power plants, the organization told POWER on Friday.

 To land Berkshire Hathaway solar plant, WV bypassed the PSC - When developers joined with Gov. Jim Justice last week to announce a new solar power and industrial plant in Jackson County, they described the $500 million deal as the kind of clean energy project of the future so many West Virginians have been waiting for. “This project demonstrates how investing in clean energy can revive economies that have served our country’s energy needs for decades,” said Alicia Knapp, CEO of the renewables arm of billionaire Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy. But landing the project required an unusual move by state lawmakers and the Justice administration: cutting West Virginia’s utility regulator — the Public Service Commission — out of any oversight over the project’s plan to use green, renewable energy. Berkshire Hathaway Energy will be building a microgrid, or an energy system that can power itself, on the former Century Aluminum site in Ravenswood. The project will deliver solar energy to all of the customers within a special business development district, which will be overseen by the state Department of Economic Development. But eliminating the PSC from the process means that even though Berkshire Hathaway Energy will act as a utility by powering businesses within its own industrial park, the company will negotiate rates with its customers, with little to no rate regulation from anyone. Its only current customer is Precision Castparts Corp., a titanium parts manufacturing company that Berkshire Hathaway owns, but the company plans to attract other industrial customers to the park. James Van Nostrand, a law professor at West Virginia University who recently wrote a book that documents how the PSC has hampered efforts to diversify West Virginia’s energy industry at the expense of ratepayers, says that it makes sense that Berkshire Hathaway Energy would want to go around the PSC. The state utility regulators have repeatedly been hostile to renewable energy and would have delayed or killed this plan, he said. “This is the worst PSC in the country. And Berkshire Hathaway are really, really smart people. And they figured that out, ‘we’re not going to come to West Virginia if we have to deal with the PSC,’” he said. When lawmakers convened for a special session during September interim meetings, they passed the bill to create two special business districts via the Department of Economic Development. The next day, many lawmakers gathered with Justice to announce the Berkshire Hathaway deal. The new legislation makes no mention of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. But it’s crafted around the company’s plans: It enables any person or business to provide renewable electricity to others within the district. Berkshire Hathaway Energy will do that for Precision Castparts and future customers via a solar-powered microgrid, which is a mini grid that can sustain itself by generating its own power.

Without Manchin deal, can U.S. develop enough clean energy? - Environmentalists cheered when Sen. Joe Manchin’s proposed permitting reforms collapsed Tuesday evening. But when the bill failed, so did its climate silver lining: a one-stop shop for permitting long-range transmission lines.The West Virginia Democrat’s proposal would have greenlit a 300-mile natural gas pipeline, set deadlines on federal environmental reviews and expedited permitting for some fossil fuel projects. That made it anathema among many environmentalists and progressives, who said it would lead to more greenhouse gas emissions at a time when the planet is rapidly warming.“This is a victory for the survival of the planet and a major loss for the fossil fuel industry,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) when Manchin pulled his proposal from the government funding bill.A statement from the Center for Biological Diversity was simply titled: “Good riddance.”Yet the permitting bill also contained provisions long sought by climate hawks. It would have given the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission the power to permit long-range transmission lines and decide how to divvy up the costs for building them.Many experts said the proposal is crucial to spurring development of the power lines needed for the expansion of wind and solar. Transmission is needed not only to plug new wind and solar developments into the grid, but to move power from areas of the country where renewables are producing power to regions where they are not.The problem: It can frequently take more than a decade to build transmission lines linking different parts of the country (Climatewire, Sept. 22).Failure to hasten the build-out of transmission could blunt the Inflation Reduction Act, which will pump $369 billion worth of tax credits into clean energy over the next decade. An analysis by researchers at Princeton University foundthat 80 percent of the emissions benefits associated with the law could be lost if the U.S. continues to build transmission at its current rate.There is reason to believe the pace of U.S. transmission development will quicken, even without the permitting bill, said Jesse Jenkins, a Princeton professor who contributed to the analysis. Electric vehicle demand will increase demand for power, giving utilities more incentive to build high-voltage power lines. Federal tax incentives to build clean energy should also invite new investment. And FERC is already in the throes of a regulatory process designed to bolster siting and cost allocation for long-range transmission lines.“The question is whether our current permitting system can keep up with that demand or slow it down relative to what makes economic sense,” Jenkins said.The permitting bill, he noted, would have removed some of the ambiguity surrounding FERC’s regulatory moves by making clear it has the authority to site lines and determine who pays for their construction costs.

Gas station owners see Xcel's EV charging plan as a threat - A coalition of retailers and charging station companies is objecting to a proposal by Xcel Energy to install hundreds of high-speed public charging stations across its Minnesota territory. Xcel Energy asked state regulators last month for permission to spend $170 million on a rapid expansion of charging infrastructure to help the state meet its goal of electrifying 20% of light duty vehicles by 2030. The utility said “range anxiety” will remain a barrier to that goal until drivers have enough charging options — it projects a need for 8,300 public fast-charging ports statewide by the end of the decade. Fewer than 100 exist today. “Unfortunately, we have not seen the market fill in key gaps regarding necessary public charging,” the utility said in its Aug. 2 filing.Gas station and convenience store owners, EV charging companies, and conservative and free-market groups say Xcel Energy’s ability to use ratepayer money for the rollout would give it an unfair advantage in what’s expected nationally to be a nearly $50 billion a year market by the end of the decade.“It’s a sweet deal that they’re getting to be able to use ratepayer money to build the stations and then recoup that through their guaranteed return on equity,” said Ryan McKinnon, spokesperson for the Charge Ahead Partnership, which represents hundreds of businesses and industry groups.

EV charging stations on highways: DOT approves 50 states' plans -The U.S. Transportation Department on Tuesday said it approved electric vehicle charging station plans for all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico covering roughly 75,000 miles of highways. Earlier this year, the Biden administration allocated $5 billion to states to fund EV chargers over five years along interstate highways as part of the bipartisan infrastructure package. Under the plan, entitled the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program, states provided their EV infrastructure deployment proposals to the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation. States are now approved to construct a network of EV charging stations along designated alternative fuel corridors on the national highway system and have access to more than $1.5 billion to help build the chargers. It's unclear how many charging stations the funds will support, and states have not yet shared specific charger locations. Transportation Department officials have said that states should install stations every 50 miles and ensure each station is located within one mile of an interstate highway. "We have approved plans for all 50 States, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia to help ensure that Americans in every part of the country — from the largest cities to the most rural communities — can be positioned to unlock the savings and benefits of electric vehicles," Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement.. The White House has put about $135 billion toward electric vehicle development and creation and is aiming to build a national network of 500,000 EV charging stations by 2030. Tax credits included in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act will provide consumers with incentives to buy EVs. Despite a rise in EV sales in recent years, the transportation sector is the nation's largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. The lack of convenient charging stations is one of the major barriers to EV expansion across the country. The U.S. is the world's third-largest market for EVs behind China and Europe. The administration has touted EVs as more affordable for Americans than gas-powered cars and has set a goal of 50% electric vehicle sales by 2030, which will help its broader commitment to curb emissions in half by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The administration has also committed to replace its federal fleet of 600,000 cars and trucks to electric power by 2035. California, the country's most populous state and the center of U.S. car culture, in August banned the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2035. The state will likely face challenges to meet that timeline, such as installing enough charging stations and having adequate access to materials required to make batteries. "With this greenlight, States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico can ramp up their work to build out EV charging networks that will make driving an EV more convenient and affordable for their residents and will serve as the backbone of our national EV charging network," acting Federal Highway Administrator Stephanie Pollack said in a statement.

How the Inflation Reduction Act is heating up an already active market for critical metals in EV batteries - Copper and other critical metals are already highly sought after as an EV demand boom prompts automakers to build electric vehicle battery supply chains. Newly passed federal legislation is making them even hotter commodities.Certain tax credit qualifications in the Inflation Reduction Act contain domestic sourcing requirements for battery materials that even some proponents believe are overly ambitious in the stated timeframes. But recycling critical metals from existing EV batteries and other sources is expected to fill some supply gaps.For their vehicles to qualify for the tax credits, starting next year automakers must source at least 40% of their EV battery components — by value, not mass — in the United States or countries with which the U.S. has a free trade agreement. That bumps up to 50% starting in 2024, 80% in 2027 and 100% by 2029. “That’s really hard because most of the minerals we use come from outside the U.S.,” said Jennifer Dunn, associate professor of chemical and biological engineering at Northwestern University and director of its Center for Engineering Sustainability and Resilience. The Inflation Reduction Act “really brought to the forefront” thinking about metals procurement.Dunn, whose research centers on lifecycle assessments of energy systems, including energy storage systems, says the U.S. “is far behind other nations — even Europe, but especially China — in manufacturing batteries.” Improvement requires “taking a holistic viewpoint” and “being careful about not making some things worse by trying to decarbonize.”As battery manufacturing ramps up, so should recycling of existing batteries to recover valuable materials, but “that’s just a ton of scale-up of lots of activities,” Dunn said. It’s also challenging because lithium-ion battery recycling is a relatively new industry still finding its footing.Even so, “we can’t mine our way out of this,” said Billy Johnson, chief lobbyist at the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries. “We don’t have enough mines online, and they’re not producing enough to take care of this demand ... Recycling is going to be an integral part of picking up the difference and getting these materials into the manufacturing supply chain.”Battery recyclers expect the Inflation Reduction Act to generate short-term and longer-term business opportunities and positive impacts.“It's already generating increased demand for what we do, which is manufacture critical battery materials … from recycled feedstock,” said Roger Lin, vice president of global marketing and government relations at Ascend Elements. “We're looking at things like the PTC within the IRA, which is the production tax credit for electroactive materials, which gives 10% credit towards production costs.” “It’s all hands on deck for anyone involved in the industry,” Trent Mell, CEO of Electra Battery Materials, said via email. The Inflation Reduction Act, he said, creates a “fantastic opportunity to change the tone of the industry and instill a shift in the onshoring process.” While a variety of metals like lithium, cobalt, manganese and nickel are fundamental elements in most EV batteries, copper has become the metal du jour. Its ability to conduct electricity well puts it in high demand not just for EV batteries, but electronics in general. Commodity analysts are raising red flags about an impending shortage.S&P Global predicts “looming copper supply shortfalls” as global demand nearly doubles over the next decade, from 25 million metric tons now to 50 million metric tons in 2035. They attribute the projected surge to the rapid scale-up in demand for clean energy and decarbonization technologies containing copper, such as electric vehicles, batteries, charging infrastructure, solar panels, wind turbines and new transmission lines. Decarbonization goals “will be short-circuited and remain out of reach” unless significant new copper supplies quickly emerge, S&P Global suggests.At the same time demand is skyrocketing for these newer and growing markets, demand is holding steady or growing for copper in conventional applications such as pipes and wiring. S&P Global pointsto a decade of “massive underinvestment” in expanding existing copper mines or creating new ones as another factor fueling a supply crunch. New mines often take 15 to 20 years to come online, and permitting alone can take a decade.

Windfall Profits Tax on Ohio Oil & Gas Discussed by Economists - Marcellus Drilling News - Earlier this year, one of the biggest nutjobs in Congress, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (Democrat-RI), introduced an excise tax, which he erroneously called a windfall profits tax, targeted at oil company profits. The bill would impose a 50% tax on the difference between the current sale price of a barrel of oil and the average price of a barrel of oil from 2015 to 2019, which was roughly $66 per barrel. It would apply to sales by companies that produce or import at least 300,000 barrels of oil per day (or did so in 2019). Whitehouse later revised his plan to a proposed 21% windfall profits tax on oil company profits over 10%. Believe it or not, Ohio appears to be debating whether or not to apply such a windfall profits tax to its energy producers.

BP refinery in Ohio, where two workers were killed, has long record of safety violations - Family and friends are holding funeral services this week for two young workers who were tragically killed in a massive fire at the BP-Husky oil refinery in Oregon, Ohio, on September 20. Ben, 32, and Max, 34, Morrissey were brothers, and both left behind wives and small children. BP has not explained what caused last Tuesday’s fire at the refinery, where more than 580 workers process up to 160,000 barrels of crude oil each day for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, propane, asphalt and other products for the US Midwest. It took company and local fire crews four hours to put out the huge blaze, which lit up the sky around the surrounding community. The severely burned workers were first taken to Mercy Health St. Vincent Medical Center in Toledo and then transported to a University of Michigan medical facility. By the next morning, however, they had succumbed to their injuries. Both brothers graduated from Clay High School where they excelled in wrestling, a very popular sport in the working class community. Ben got an apprenticeship as an iron worker and worked on construction projects for several years in the New York City area, including on the Tappan Zee Bridge, before getting the job at the BP refinery in March 2022. After graduating high school, Max enlisted in the US Navy before getting at job at BP. Max is survived by his wife Darah and small sons, Wilde and Recker. Ben is survived by his wife Kaddie and small son Weslee. “Both were the best dads in the world,” Workers at the refinery have long complained that repeated job cuts, outsourcing, exhausting work schedules of 12 hours or more, and other cost-cutting measures by management have undermined safety. The BP refinery has a record of repeated serious and life-threatening safety violations:

• In 2010, OSHA cited BP North American Inc. and BP-Husky refinery in Oregon, Ohio, with 42 alleged willful violations, after repeated inspections of BP facilities following the 2005 explosion at BP’s Texas City Refinery which killed 15 workers and injured 170. This include 20 alleged serious violations for exposing workers to a variety of hazards, including failure to provide adequate pressure relief for process units. \
• In 2016, BP-Husky was fined $35,632 for violations at the Oregon refinery, including five “serious” category violations related to the use and working condition of fire hydrants at the refinery.
• In March 2022, OSHA issued a serious violation and $3,874 fine when employees were exposed to methanol, OSHA records show.

An unnamed source told Reuters the day of last week’s fire that leaking fumes from a crude unit may have caused the ignition in another unit at the facility. The refinery, a very old facility which originally started production in 1919, had just completed a once in five years “turnaround,” when production is shut down for inspection, cleaning and major maintenance and repairs. The process had reportedly been completed and production resumed.During the last strike at the Oregon facility in 2015, a BP worker told the WSWS the refinery was supposed to implement scheduled turnarounds every four years, but the last one had been in 2007, that is eight years before. “We are constantly putting on band-aids,” he said.Earlier this year, a BP worker at the company’s facility in Whiting, Indiana, told the WSWS, “They preach safety, but it is meaningless. They expect you to do your job, no matter what.” During turnarounds, he said, “safety just goes out the window because the managers are paid bonuses based on metrics of how far ahead of schedule they are and under budget.

BP layoffs at Ohio refinery after fire indicate prolonged shutdown - (Reuters) – BP Plc fired most of the contractors at the roughly 160,000 bpd Toledo, Ohio refinery it co-owns with Cenovus Energy (NYSE:) Inc. on Wednesday, according to sources familiar with the matter that the plant will experience an extended shutdown after last week’s explosion and fire. The blast killed two members of the United Steelworkers, identified as brothers Max and Ben Morrissey. The more than 100-year-old refinery has been off the grid since the middle of last week after the explosion and could be shut down for several months. At least one contractor is on site and assesses the damage. The US Chemical Safety Board is also investigating the incident, which reportedly resulted in the release of sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide and significant property damage. Cenovus forwarded the comment to BP (NYSE:), which declined to comment further. The outage caused gasoline cash differentials in Chicago to hit new highs on Wednesday. Chicago CBOB gasoline is up 7.75 cents and trading 80 cents a gallon via futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, traders said, more than 700% higher than prices a year ago. The official cause of the explosion was not reported. Fumes escaping from one crude oil unit could have caused the ignition in another unit at the plant, a source told Reuters. Several units were engulfed in flames, the source said. Workers have completed a maintenance break at the facility in recent weeks and the facility has been brought back into service. In August, Cenovus announced it would buy the remaining 50% interest in the BP-Husky Toledo refinery that it does not already own. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2022.

Hurricane Ian, refinery fire impacting Ohio gas prices - An unexpected one-two punch continues to move gas prices higher for Ohioans at least in the short term before the switch to winter blends may provide some relief. A fire at an oil refinery in Toledo last week shut down the plant’s operations and is impacting prices in the Midwest. At the same time, Hurricane Ian’s path through the Gulf of Mexico and impact in Florida is also expected to affect distribution, according to experts at AAA. While still below the national average of $3.76, Ohio’s average price of $3.68 on Wednesday was 3 cents higher than Tuesday and more than 20 cents above last week’s average. A year ago, Ohioans paid an average of $3 a gallon. Hurricane Ian made landfall Wednesday afternoon on Florida’s west coast before beginning its move over central Florida late Wednesday and Thursday. In preparation, BP and Chevron announced Monday night they shut-in production of offshore platforms in the Gulf, while Occidental Petroleum and Hess also took measurers at their facilities, according to AAA Cincinnati Public and Government Affairs Manager Kara Hitchens. “Hurricane approaches spur some increases in local demand for gasoline, and indeed many counties in the country have only a few days of supply on hand at downstream terminals. After the initial surge in demand, a period of lower-than-normal consumption can haunt a region for a much longer period,” Hitchens said. “Arteries of distribution can hemorrhage with storm impacts, whether it be via washed out pipelines or power outages. Ian looks like it might impact real estate that has pumping stations for Colonial Pipeline, for example.” Adding to the gasoline issue was a fire at a Toledo refinery last week that killed two people and left the plant shutdown. Hitchens said experts initially believed the fire would not have much of an impact, but those thoughts have changed. “Initially experts didn’t think the fire would have much impact but the longer the refinery is offline, the greater the impact. And now couple that with the storm’s impact, there is bound to be some impact,” Hitchens said.

Ascent Resources Using Methane Detection Lasers for MiQ Certification --Ascent Resources – Utica, LLC announced that nearly all of its natural gas production had achieved the top Grade A certification under the MiQ methane emissions standard. As part of its certification, Ascent has partnered with Bridger Photonics ("Bridger"), a Montana-based company that utilizes aerial methane detecting technology, Gas Mapping LiDAR™, to detect, locate, and quantify methane emissions.Ascent is one of the largest privately held exploration and production companies in the United States in terms of asset size and net production and is the largest producer of natural gas in the state of Ohio. The company places a strong emphasis on responsible operations, and participated in Cheniere Energy’s quantification, monitoring, reporting, and verification (QMRV) research and development project to more thoroughly understand emissions and detection technologies associated with the upstream natural gas and oil production sector. Ascent also participates in other responsibly sourced gas (RSG) opportunities in addition to certifying its production with MiQ. Aerial methane detecting technologies like Gas Mapping LiDAR have grown in popularity with operators due to their ability to detect emissions more efficiently than alternative methodologies. After each scan, Bridger provides Ascent with a digital map that includes methane plume imagery, emission size and concentration, and GPS coordinates of every detected emission. "Ascent is committed to providing clean, reliable, and affordable energy that is responsibly sourced. That foundational principle enabled us to achieve multiple top-tier third party certifications and we expect that our work with Bridger will further enhance our existing emissions detection and elimination efforts in a cost-effective way," said Keith Yankowsky, Chief Operating Officer at Ascent.

Duke Energy applies for natural gas distribution rate increase - Duke Energy, the largest natural gas provider in southwest Ohio, recently asked state regulators to allow for measures that would bring the company an additional $48.8 million in yearly natural gas revenue.The company’s filing initiates a long, regulatory process between the utility provider and the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO), the state’s sole utility regulator. Casey Kroger, a spokesperson for Duke Energy, said the company is looking to recoup investments that had previously been made.Any time a utility provider wants to change its distribution rates, it has to get permission through PUCO. For Duke Energy’s natural gas operations, the company hasn’t requested an update of its distribution rates since 2012. Now that Duke Energy’s proposal is in, PUCO’s technical staff will look over the relevant data and make its own recommendation of how much the utility provider’s revenue should be allowed to increase.Public hearings, possible settlements and a final, formal evidentiary hearing are set to follow. Matt Schilling, a spokesperson for PUCO, said folks could expect this rate case to take nearly a year until it’s finally decided.If PUCO were to grant the company’s proposal in full, which is technically possible but rare, it would result in a bill increase of about $6.08 per month for residential customers on average, or about a 6.7% increase, said Kroger.Kroger said Duke Energy has about 450,000 natural gas customers in nine southwest Ohio counties, including all or most of Hamilton, Butler, Warren, Clermont and Brown counties. In comparison, Duke Energy has about 700,000 electric customers in the same area.Schilling said Duke Energy is the only utility in the state to provide both natural gas and electric distribution.There are two main components that go into a resident’s natural gas bill: the price of the gas itself and the price of the distribution of that gas.Legally, the state’s utility providers are not allowed to make any profit on the charge of the gas itself. Essentially, what a resident pays for the gas itself is equivalent to what the provider paid; no markups.However, utility providers are allowed to make a profit off of the distribution of that gas, so long as PUCO deems the profit to be “reasonable.”

Appalachian Basin Engineers Studying Hydrogen Transport in Natural Gas Pipelines - How to safely and securely transport hydrogen through natural gas infrastructure is the focus of a new research partnership between the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) Swanson School of Engineering and utility Peoples Natural Gas. “Hydrogen has the potential to transform the way we heat our homes and power our businesses, using the existing natural gas distribution system,” said Peoples’ Mike Huwar, president. “Pitt and the Swanson School have the expertise we need to test and study its feasibility as a transformative energy resource.” Natural gas also is used to produce so-called blue hydrogen. Peoples and Pitt engineers initially plan to benchmark and research existing information and data on hydrogen distribution, focusing on technical issues tied to shipping hydrogen or hydrogen-natural gas blends in gas pipelines. Afterward, they would likely collaborate on a pilot project to test hydrogen’s impacts on Peoples’ natural gas distribution infrastructure. The collaborators noted that Western Pennsylvania, a natural gas hub in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, could “become a leader in the development and commercialization of hydrogen.” They said hydrogen’s distinct physical and chemical properties “require answers to technical questions, such as its effects on pipeline materials, to determine whether natural gas utilities can safely and effectively transport it through existing infrastructure.”The Pitt and Peoples team said hydrogen could “serve as a source of energy when used in combustion appliances of fuel cells that produce clean electricity. Its potential use as a supplement to natural gas could have an important role in future energy transition strategies in our region to significantly reduce emissions.” Nearby, in West Virginia, researchers are studying how to keep natural gas turbine blades at power plants intact when using hydrogen to produce electricity.

EIA: US LNG imports reach historic lows in 1H22 - In the first six months of 2022, US LNG imports reached their lowest level in at least 15 years, averaging 77 million ft3/d, compared with the five-year (2017 – 2021) average for the same period of 174 million ft3/d. LNG imports are usually at their highest level in the winter months of October through March. This past winter, LNG imports averaged 93 million ft3/d, which is significantly lower than in the winter of 2006 – 2007, when LNG imports averaged 1.8 billion ft3/d. As a share of US total natural gas imports, LNG imports accounted for less than 1% in 2021, down from almost 17% in 2007. LNG imports peaked in April 2007 at 3.3 billion ft3/d, and they accounted for almost 26% of total natural gas imports. Over the past five years, LNG imports were at their highest level in January 2018 averaging 0.5 billion ft3/d, or almost 6% of total natural gas imports that month. Before 2010, the US was expanding its LNG import infrastructure. Eight LNG import terminals were built between 2005 and 2011, increasing the number of US terminals to 12. Domestic dry natural gas production began to grow rapidly around the same time and eventually many of those LNG import terminals were reconfigured into LNG export terminals. US dry natural gas production grew by nearly 80% from 2007 to 2021, displacing LNG imports, which declined rapidly during this period. Natural gas production has increased primarily in three production regions — Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville. Production from the Appalachian Basin, which includes the Marcellus and Utica shale formations in the Northeast, accounted for 31% of total US natural gas production in 2021. With the growth in natural gas production, several pipeline projects were completed, improving the delivery of natural gas supplies from producing regions to consumption centres across most of the country. However, even after the completion of some projects, such as the Algonquin Incremental Market (AIM) project, supplies by pipeline into the New England market can be constrained during periods of peak demand. As a result, New England continues to rely on LNG imports, particularly during the winter when demand for natural gas is high. On peak demand days, imported LNG can contribute up to 35% of New England’s natural gas supply. LNG imports can be a key marginal source of supply during times of high demand and help moderate natural gas prices. Almost all LNG imported into the US today is delivered into the New England market at the import terminals in the Boston, Massachusetts, area— Constellation Energy’s Everett LNG Facility in Boston Harbor and Excelerate Energy’s Northeast Gateway in Massachusetts Bay. From November 2021 through March 2022, nine vessels carrying LNG from Trinidad and Tobago delivered 16.8 billion ft3 of LNG to the two terminals.

A Blizzard of LNG - The winter energy situation in New England has led to a blizzard of meetings, including an all-day meeting sponsored by FERC and held in Vermont, the New England Winter Gas-Electric Forum. The last time FERC held a meeting of this kind in New England was ten years ago. Quoting Utility Dive on the conclusion from this meeting:“We’re going into this winter basically crossing our fingers and hoping,” FERC Commission James Danly said. The best explanation for all these meetings is the graph at the head of this post. This slide was part of a slide deck that ISO-NE staff presented to the NEPOOL Markets Committee on July 8, 2022: “Considerations for Winter 2022-2023 ISO Presentation.” I discussed this presentation before, in my blog post LNG for the Winter in the Northeast. I am discussing it again because all the recent meetings (the FERC meeting was 9 hours!), presentations, and discussions are people explaining their opinions of this situation in the Northeast for this winter. They have informed opinions, interesting opinions, and so forth. But the actual situation is described in that slide deck.The slide at the head of this post shows what the Northeast can expect, The chart shows projected forward prices for several types of energy, based on S&P research. The highest line is for the future wholesale price of electricity at the Mass Hub in New England. The electricity price rises to almost $300 per MWh, which is 30 cents per kWh (price on the left side of the chart). The other prices are for different types of hydrocarbon fuel: those prices are shown by energy value: $ per MMBtu. The natural gas price, for pipeline gas at the Algonquin Hub in New York, goes up to around $35 MMBTU. For context, about natural gas. At the Henry Hub in Louisiana, natural gas has spent most of the last twenty yearsbetween $2 and $6 per MMBtu. and is now over $8. (It reached prices higher than $8 in 2008. It has never been higher than $14.) What about other fuels? The chart in the slide contains two more lines: the cost per MMBTU of distillate (think diesel fuel) and residual oil (think heating oil). Neither of these prices shows any dramatic change. Both prices fall below the natural gas prices, starting in December of this year. With sky-high prices for electricity and high prices for natural gas, power plants will buy oil as the economically reasonable thing to do. This assumes of course, that enough power plants can burn oil. My recent post on this subject started with a graphic of the MW of power plants with stored fuel that have shut down since 2013. Five thousand MW of power plants with fuel on site have shut, and three thousand MW have opened. Unfortunately, the new plants (dual-fueled) can store far less fuel on-site. The closed plants (including nuclear plants) kept much more fuel on-site. We need LNG in the Northeast. Slide 11 (of the slide deck described above) says that the average LNG use in New England has been 32 BCF per year. That is about eleven 3 BCF LNG tankers. Assuming we use the same amount this year, we will be using more BTUs of LNG than fuel oil. Many of these tankers unload cargo at the Everett LNG port in Massachusetts. The Everett LNG port is scheduled to be shut down in two years. It would be shut down because Mystic Station (located conveniently near the LNG port) would no longer be operating. As quoted in RTO Insider, FERC Chairman Richard Glick said: “If we spend all our time thinking about how we’re going to keep the Everett LNG facility open … today will be a failure,”

Why Joe Manchin is obsessed with the Mountain Valley Pipeline - This week is a big deal for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has thrown his significant weight in the Senate behind getting Congress to smooth the way for the Mountain Valley Pipeline. West Virginia sits on the Marcellus Shale and could export significantly more natural gas than it currently does, but it needs to be able to export that gas via pipelines in order to build up industry, which proponents believe could help the state’s bleak economy. Manchin’s grand plan was to offer his support for the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ signature legislative achievement this year, in return for passing a pipeline permitting bill. That bill is now poised to fail a test vote in the Senate on Tuesday afternoon. Progressive Democrats oppose the pipeline measure for environmental reasons, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has been encouraging Republican senators to vote no, too. The Senate needs to pass a spending bill by this Friday or the government will run out of money — placing big pressure on congressional leaders to get something done, with or without Manchin’s pipeline. “Coal production is still significant in West Virginia, but it’s not what it once was,” said Hoppy Kercheval, radio host of Morgantown, W.Va.,-based MetroNews Talkline. “Gas has become a more significant player in the state with hydraulic fracturing, and there could be a lot more production if you could ship more of it.” Kercheval has been reporting on West Virginia for more than 40 years, and Manchin has been a politician in West Virginia for much of that time. Kercheval estimates he’s interviewed Manchin “a thousand times,” and Manchin is a frequent guest on Kercheval’s radio show where, on more than one occasion, Kercheval has been the first to hear Manchin’s position on major legislation. “It’s going to reflect poorly on Manchin” in deep red West Virginia if he can’t get the pipeline deal passed, Kercheval said. He spoke to Grid about why the pipeline has become so critical to some West Virginians and how Manchin approaches being a Democrat from an increasingly deep red state. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

 Gas Pipeline Dealt a Blow as Manchin Withdraws Energy-Permitting Bill - (Bloomberg) — A US government funding bill was stripped of an effort to speed up the federal approval process for energy projects, dealing a major setback to efforts to fast-track the approval of energy infrastructure including a stalled $6.6 billion natural gas pipeline. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday he agreed to a request by Senator Joe Manchin to remove permitting reform language from the stopgap government spending bill after it became clear the measure didn’t have the votes needed to advance. The Senate is likely to advance the bill in a vote later Tuesday now that the energy provision has been removed. “It is unfortunate that members of the United States Senate are allowing politics to put the energy security of our nation at risk,” Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia who had proposed the energy provision, said in a statement. “A failed vote on something as critical as comprehensive permitting reform only serves to embolden leaders like Putin who wish to see America fail.” The now-withdrawn proposals would have required federal agencies to approve and issue all permits necessary for the construction of Equitrans Midstream Corp.’s stalled Mountain Valley pipeline within 30 days. Construction on the 303-mile (488-kilometer) conduit, which crosses Manchin’s home state, has been stalled after a federal court in January rejected a permit to cross a national forest following a challenge by environmentalists. Manchin’s bill would also have put a two-year time goal on environmental reviews for large energy projects and one year for smaller ones. In addition, the legislation would be allow the president to designate a list of at least 25 “high-priority energy infrastructure projects” for which permitting would be prioritized and expected the approval process for electricity transmission projects for far flung renewable energy projects that benefited from Democrats recently passed climate package. Shares of Equitrans dropped 2.2% in after-market trading in New York.

OP-ED | Invest In The Future, Not A Dirty Deal - CT News Junkie - There has been a lot in the news lately about the “Dirty Deal” struck in Congress by legislators working to get the Inflation Reduction Act passed. Thefollow on bill was negotiated by Democratic Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, who had been blocking the passage of the larger bill. The bill would fast-track several fossil-fuel projects including the Mountain Valley Pipeline in West Virginia. While bicycle touring through this region and the stunning Ohio River Valley, I was struck by the economic woes of the cities and towns. Extractive oil and coal industries are at the same time surging (fracking for fossil gas) and waning (coal plants shutting down). Finding restaurants, drug stores, and grocery stores was difficult, even though I was passing through once bustling river towns and rail depots. The town of Cheshire, Ohio, in the shadow of the Gavin power plant’s towering chimneys, is a literal ghost town that was bought out by the power company for $20 million to address persistent pollution and future liability. That plant is now facing closure for long violating regulations that coal ash storage ponds be lined to prevent groundwater pollution.This shift away from fossil fuels is a real and important change happening to regions in Southeast Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Longtime residents are rightfully worried and upset by mandates and environmental laws that reduce employment, shutter power plants, and leave sad shells of once vibrant towns. Those residents are looking for solutions, politically and legislatively, that maintain jobs and bring prosperity (and people) back to their communities. A focus on paying rent, a job to do today, and economic stability for their family and friends often outweighs the less focused and complicated task of maintaining a survivable and productive climate on Earth. These areas are teetering near the edge of viability. State and local leaders, along with representative in Congress, must look for sustainable policy, green energy investments, infrastructure projects, and tourism opportunities that provide the jobs, pride, and quality of life that these communities deserve. As I mentioned, the Ohio River Valley and surrounding hills are beautiful. Riverside hotels, boating tours, hiking trails, and walkable town centers should be jointly marketed to those in nearby cities and land-locked towns looking to get away for a relaxing weekend with a river view.Gallipolis, Ohio seems to have figured out the day trip and tourism market with an inviting town center, riverfront park, nearby trails, and natural areas.

 Kinder Morgan divests $565m stake in Elba Liquefaction Company - US-based pipeline operator Kinder Morgan has completed the divestment of a 25.5% interest in Elba Liquefaction Company (ELC) to an undisclosed financial buyer in a deal worth approximately $565m.ELC owns and operates the Elba liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility, located on Elba Island in Chatham County, Georgia. The stake sale comes amid surging demand for US LNG from European nations, which are facing fuel cuts from Russia, reported Reuters. “Recent geopolitical events have proven how critical liquefied natural gas infrastructure is to meeting global energy demand. We believe this investment further shows the value of LNG and demonstrates the important role it will play for decades to come.” The proceeds from the sale will be used by Kinder for investments, including share repurchases, and reducing short-term debt.

U.S. Shale Drillers Try To Capitalize On Record Gas Prices In Europe - Just a few short years ago, the gas that escaped with the oil trapped in shale formations was considered basically a waste. Associated gas was flared—and it still is in some parts of the shale patch—but the idea of using it was expensive and difficult to realize. There were neither enough pipelines to carry the gas to the liquefaction plants already built along the Gulf Coast, nor was there great demand for it, with virtually every forecast seeing the global supply of natural gas at ample levels for the observable future. And then Russia invaded Ukraine, and everything changed. Now, the price of gas in Europe is about $90 per million British thermal units, which would be equal to a price of $550 per barrel of oil, Bloomberg noted in a recent report. It’s hardly a surprise, then, that shale drillers are switching from oil to gas drilling, with gas drilling up by 50 percent since the start of the year.Natural gas production in the U.S. has risen to an all-time high this year, with the average daily reaching 2.89 trillion cu ft, industry expert Robert Rapier pointed out in a recent story for Forbes. He then went on to add that this would not lead to lower gas bills for consumers. The rush to drill for gas was certainly prompted by Europe’s gas shortage, for which U.S. liquefied natural gas turned out to be the easiest, if not cheapest, solution. Yet while LNG exports were growing, so was local gas consumption as coal power plants continued to be retired, replaced by natural gas-fired facilities.Indeed, the supply and demand balance is so fragile that, as Reuters’ columnist John Kemp reported earlier this month, U.S. gas drillers were already having to rush to catch up with demand, both local and international.“The commodities folks have somewhat ignored the big growth that we’ve seen in the gas-rig count versus last year,”. “It seems like oil’s gotten hit hard over concerns over the economy recently and gas has quietly just done really well on a relative basis this year.”The other, potentially more important thing that has been happening relatively quietly is the fact that U.S. shale drillers are switching from oil to gas drilling. In other words, they are reducing their oil operations in favor of gas operations. In a tight supply environment in oil, too, this trend could eventually end up having significant implications for the security of supply and prices.The outlook is not much brighter for gas, either. The recent collapse of Tellurian-led Driftwood LNG means it might not be all that easy for U.S. LNG companies to raise the funding they need to expand capacity fast enough. And this means the tight supply situation will extend.Ironically, as the FT suggested in a report on Tellurian’s woes, doubts about the longevity of gas demand could be at the root of the funding problems that Tellurian ran into. “What I see is an end to the euphoria and a grounding of the hype about US LNG and a re-evaluation of which of these projects is really going to be financially viable for the next 20 years,” Clark Williams-Derry, analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Finance, a think-tank, told the FT.This is bad news for Europe, certainly, as it seems it plans to almost completely turn to LNG as a replacement for as much Russian pipeline supply as possible, to top it off with Norwegian imports.Yet it might be good news for the U.S. The less gas is exported in liquefied form, the more there is for the domestic market and the more affordable it would be. Still, a return to the prices from a couple of years ago is, at this point, rather unlikely.

Momentum Midstream Takes FID on 1.7 Bcf/d Haynesville Natural Gas Gathering, Carbon Capture Project - Private equity-backed Momentum Midstream LLC said Thursday it is moving forward with the New Generation Gas Gathering (NG3) project in the Haynesville Shale. The project, which is meant to supply growing Gulf Coast and LNG export demand, is to have initial capacity of 1.7 Bcf/d, expandable to 2.2 Bcf/d. Momentum is a subsidiary of Encap Flatrock Midstream and other financial partners. The NG3 project also would include a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) component that will remove and permanently store underground 100% of the project’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, creating a “net negative carbon footprint,” Momentum said. NG3 is slated to begin operating in the second half of 2024. [Client Collaboration: What type of additional content / information / data would you like to see more of in NGI? Tell us now.] Increasingly, U.S. producers and midstreamers are pursuing measures to reduce the emissions footprint of natural gas bound for the global liquefied natural gas market. Long-term volume commitments for NG3 have been secured from several leading Haynesville producers, including anchor shipper Chesapeake Energy Corp., said Momentum CEO Frank Tsuru. In addition to the final investment decision on NG3, Momentum has closed on the acquisition of Midcoast Energy LLC’s East Texas business (Midcoast ETX) from an affiliate of ArcLight Capital Partners LLC. The Midcoast ETX system comprises a gathering and transportation system with 1.5 Bcf/d of current volume and 1.0 Bcf/d of existing deliverability to the Gulf Coast and LNG markets, Momentum said. Momentum also closed the acquisition of Align Midstream from Tailwater Capital LLC. Align owns several gathering systems adjacent to Midcoast with current volumes of 600 MMcf/d. NG3, “combined with our existing capacity on the Midcoast system, will serve to address bottlenecks in the Haynesville Shale and provide much-needed capacity to the growing LNG markets on the Gulf Coast,” Tsuru said.

Natural Gas Futures Eke Out Gain as Production Hits Record High and Hurricane Looms - Coming off a 12% slump last week, natural gas futures clawed back into the green Monday amid estimates of record output and potential threats to production in the form of a hurricane en route to Florida. The October Nymex gas futures contract gained 7.5 cents day/day and settled at $6.903/MMBtu. November added 2.2 cents to $7.014. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., which also gave up substantial ground over the past week, recovered Monday and increased 11.5 cents to $5.240. Lower 48 dry gas production reached 101.1 Bcf/d over the weekend – a record in Bloomberg’s data set. Output held near that level on Monday – at 100 Bcf/d. Supply has strengthened through much of September, while demand has started to recede with the arrival of fall weather. National Weather Service forecasts Monday pointed to mild conditions across much of the Lower 48 this week and into the first half of October. All of this put pressure on Nymex futures last week and through most of trading Monday. But the prompt month recovered late in the day and posted gains as news of a powerful hurricane raised concerns about possible damage and production interruptions. Hurricane Ian, churning southeast of Cuba on Monday, was expected to undergo “additional rapid strengthening” and “emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday,” according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm could then “pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday,” the forecaster said. Ian, combined with the looming expiration of the October contract on Wednesday, could make for a volatile week for natural gas prices, according to NatGasWeather. The firm expects Ian’s cooling rains and winds to dampen demand, but impacts on production emerged as a substantial wildcard. “The track of Ian shifted slightly westward over the weekend and a little closer to oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico,” NatGasWeather said. “We are expecting production in the Gulf of Mexico to drop 1-2 Bcf/d as they evacuate platforms, regardless of if it hits any or not.”

U.S. natgas down 4% to 10-week low as Hurricane Ian approaches Florida (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% on Tuesday to a 10-week low as Hurricane Ian advanced toward Florida and on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks that will likely cut gas demand and allow utilities to inject more fuel into storage. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected Ian, after battering Cuba, would cross the Gulf of Mexico and slam southwest Florida on Wednesday as a major storm with winds of up to 125 miles (201 kilometers) per hour. Only about 2% of U.S. gas production comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, with most coming from shale basins like the Permian in West Texas and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania. Analysts said storms were more likely to cut demand than supply since they knock out power and can cause liquefied natural , gas (LNG) export terminals to shut. There were still about 487,800 customers in Puerto Rico and 127,000 in Nova Scotia without power after Hurricane Fiona battered the U.S. island on Sept. 18 and the Canadian province on Sept. 24. Also weighing on gas prices, demand was expected to decline in October when the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance. Cove Point consumes about 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas. U.S. gas use has already been reduced for months by the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, leaving more gas for U.S. utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 bcfd of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for October delivery fell 25.2 cents, or 3.7%, to settle at $6.651 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since July 14. The front-month remained technically oversold, with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a fourth straight day for the first time since early July. Year-to-date, gas futures remained up about 79% as global gas prices have soared, feeding demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $54 per mmBtu in Europe and $42 in Asia. That was an 11% gain for prices in Europe due to leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.8 bcfd so far in September from a monthly record of 98.0 bcfd in August. With cooler autumn weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slip from 90.3 bcfd this week to 88.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.

October Natural Gas Futures Probe Higher into Expiration as ‘Awful’ Hurricane Strikes, Russia Antagonizes - Natural gas futures seesawed as a powerful hurricane hammered Florida Wednesday, curbing demand but raising the specter of production interruptions. Market participants also weighed expectations for another stout storage print amid thin trading heading into contract expiration. The October Nymex gas futures contract lost ground in the morning but recovered late and settled at $6.868/MMBtu on Wednesday, up 21.7 cents on its final day as the prompt month. It had lost 25.2 cents a day earlier. November, which takes over at the front of the curve Thursday, gained 19.5 cents to $6.955. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. lost 26.5 cents to $5.305. During trading Wednesday, Hurricane Ian pummeled the west coast of Florida, threatening “catastrophic storm surge, winds and flooding in the Florida peninsula,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned. Ian was carrying maximum sustained winds of 155 mph at midday. NHC predicted rainfall totals of 12-18 inches in some parts of Florida. The forecaster said two feet of rain was possible in the heart of the storm. Ian was moving at only a few mph. The hurricane also spawned tornadoes at sea and threatened to do so as it crossed over Florida, into the Atlantic and up the Southeast coast in coming days. The path of the storm looked to bypass the vast majority of major Gulf of Mexico production facilities. Still, markets mulled the possibility of precautionary shut-ins trimming output near term against expected demand drops in Ian’s wake, NatGasWeather said Wednesday. Global demand, meanwhile, remains robust amid European supply uncertainties linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Countries across the continent have stocked up on LNG – largely from the United States – to fortify storage ahead of winter. But several European countries may need at least some Russian gas to weather a harsh winter – and such fuel could prove elusive. Russia this week reported damage to three lines on its Nord Stream natural gas pipeline system that connects to Europe, creating further doubts about already reduced flows of gas to the continent because of geopolitical standoffs. U.S. officials said sabotage was the likely culprit. Russian state-run Gazprom PJSC this week also warned it may halt all supplies to Western Europe via Ukraine. This propelled European prices higher and signaled that demand for U.S. shipments of liquefied natural gas is all but sure to remain near record levels through the coming winter, maintaining an important undercurrent for U.S. natural gas bulls. All of that followed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats last week of a nuclear weapon attack on Ukraine. “Just when you thought the prospects for this winter in Europe could not get dimmer comes news that the Nord Stream pipeline system may never again deliver a molecule of Russian gas into Europe,” analysts at The Schork Report said Wednesday.

U.S. natgas eases 1% as storm cuts power use, big storage build (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected storage build and after Hurricane Ian knocked out power to over 2.6 million customers in Florida, reducing the amount of gas needed to produce electricity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 23. That was much bigger than the 94-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 77 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 86 bcf. Analysts said the build was bigger than usual due in part to an increase in wind power last week that allowed generators to cut back on the amount of gas they burned to produce electricity. Wind power produced about 10% of the nation's electricity last week, up from as little as 6% earlier in the month, according to federal energy data. Analysts said storms like Ian tend to cut demand for gas rather than supplies of the fuel since they usually knock out power and can cause liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals to shut. Only about 2% of U.S. gas production comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico - none of it in Florida - with most coming from shale basins like the Permian in West Texas and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania. In its latest advisory, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Ian, now a tropical storm, was in the Atlantic Ocean after crossing Florida. The NHC expects the storm to strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (121 km per hour) before it slams into the South Carolina coast on Friday. In other hurricane news, about 280,000 customers in Puerto Rico still lacked power, as did 70,900 in Nova Scotia after Hurricane Fiona battered the U.S. island on Sept. 18 and the Canadian province on Sept. 24. Despite recent declines, U.S. futures were still up about 85% so far this year as global gas prices have soared, feeding demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $53 per mmBtu in Europe and $39 in Asia. That was an 8% decline for prices in Europe.

U.S. Upstream Activity Steady as Oil Tally Rises, Natural Gas Drilling Slows - The U.S. rig count inched higher during the week ended Friday (Sept. 30), picking up one unit to end at 765 thanks to a small overall gain in the oil patch, according to the latest figures from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). Two oil-directed rigs were added in the United States for the week. Partially offsetting was a one-rig decline in natural gas-directed drilling. The 765 active U.S. rigs as of Friday compares with 528 rigs running in the year-earlier period, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus. One rig was added on land week/week, while the Gulf of Mexico tally went unchanged at 15. Three horizontal rigs were added domestically, while total vertical rigs declined by two. The Canadian rig count fell two units to 213 for the week. Changes there included a four-rig decline in oil-directed rigs, partially offset by a two-rig increase in natural gas drilling. Counting by major drilling region, the Marcellus Shale led with an increase of three rigs for the period, while three rigs exited in the Arkoma Woodford, the BKR data show. The Ardmore Woodford and Cana Woodford each added one rig, while the Mississippian Lime and Utica Shale each saw one rig exit for the period. Counting by state, West Virginia saw a net increase of four rigs, while New Mexico added two and North Dakota added one. Texas dropped two rigs week/week, while Ohio, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania each dropped one, according to BKR.

Energy Analyst Flags Dislocated Shoulder Season -September is normally a ‘shoulder’ season in the oil and gas markets, but this year is different. That’s according to energy and environmental geo-analytics company Kayrros, which highlighted the effects of the conflict in Ukraine on the markets. “A shoulder season [is] a relatively subdued transition period between the twin demand peaks of the Northern hemisphere, on the one hand the summer driving season, with its cyclical spike in cooling, recreational driving, and air travel, and on the other hand the winter heating season and its surge in distillate burn, including heating oil,” Kayrros noted in the report. “This year is different, though, as the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its steep reduction in gas exports to Europe overshadow seasonal factors,” Karros added. In the report, Kayrros outlined that LNG has been in high demand ever since the invasion of Ukraine and said liquefaction plants have been running flat out through the summer, which the company highlighted is normally a maintenance season. “This suggests record gas prices may have led some plants to defer routine maintenance - potentially a recipe for unplanned outages as we head into the peak heating season when the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Europe is expected to boost demand for LNG even further,” Kayrros warned. In a statement on its Twitter page on September 2, Gazprom revealed that gas transmission via the Nord Stream gas pipeline had been fully shut down. In a separate report sent to Rigzone earlier this month, Kayrros outlined that the driving season in the U.S. was “uncharacteristically tepid”, with gasoline demand “significantly below last year”. “But while the summer demand bump was modest, so too was the late-August decline … Demand eased back seasonally but narrowed its year-on-year deficit, starting September back at last year’s level,” Kayrros added in that report.

20,000 gallons of oil spilled in St. Bernard Parish waters — Entergy Louisiana has reported that 20,000 gallons of oil were spilled in St. Bernard waters. According to Entergy, the oil was released at the de-energized Arabi Substation. The substation has been de-energized since a tornado impacted the area in March of 2022. A portion of the released oil entered adjacent open water, the marsh of Bayou Bienvenue, and is present along the shoreline. The resultant oil sheen appears to be consolidated, intact, and contained within a floating containment boom. Entergy reports that the cause of the spill appears to be because of criminal activity as the valves to two large oil-filled transformers were discovered to have been removed. It is believed that the spill occurred one or two days before being discovered on Sunday. St. Bernard police are currently investigating the incident.

20,000 gallons of oil spilled into Arabi waters after 'criminal activity' at Entergy substation - Entergy says some of the the oil has entered nearby open water, the marsh of Bayou Bienvenue, and is present along the shoreline. — Thousands of gallons of oil were released in Arabi after someone may have vandalized or stolen parts from a de-energized Entergy substation. According to a spokesperson from Entergy, about 20,000 gallons of oil was released from a de-energized substation in Arabi on Sunday and it has now seeped into the marshes of Bayou Bienvenue. The substation, located near Benjamin Street, has been de-energized since an EF-3 tornado hit in March. Entergy says some of the oil has entered adjacent open water and is also present along the shoreline. “The released oil does not contain PCBs…the resultant oil sheen appears to be consolidated, intact, and contained within a floating containment boom,” Brandon Scardigli, Communications Manager of Entergy Louisiana, said. The valves to two large oil-filled transformers are missing, leading them to suspect criminal activity to be the cause of the oil spill. The spill is estimated to have occurred on Friday or Saturday. St. Bernard Parish Police are investigating the incident.Scardigli says Entergy immediately notified Louisiana State Police, Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality, St. Bernard Parish Local Emergency Planning Committee, and the U.S. National Response Center.Entergy’s Environmental Management team is working to clean up the spill. The American Pollution Control Corp. (AMPOL) is the spill response contractor for onsite remediation.

New report: Oil spills from offshore transportation way down - (AP) — Oil and natural gas spills from tankers and pipelines in U.S. waters dropped dramatically from the last decade of the 1990s to the one from 2010 through 2019, according to a federal report Wednesday. The amounts spilled and dumped in wastewater from drilling rigs and production platforms rose, but — if the disastrous 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill isn't counted — the increase is mainly because there is more work offshore, said the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. “It is evident that regulatory changes, advances in science and technology, and (for the most part) attention to safety would have helped to make North American waters less polluted with oil” without the Deepwater Horizon spill, the report said. But the BP well blew, killing 11 people and spewing millions of gallons (kiloliters) of oil into the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana over months. Another big contributor during the past decade was the nation's longest-running oil spill, also off Louisiana. The 497-page report was written by an international committee of academic and industry experts and reviewed by many others. “Overall, I think they have done a very comprehensive job,” said Anthony Knap, director of the Geochemical and Environmental Research Group at Texas A&M University, who was not an author or reviewer. Like a report released in 2003, this one — “Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects” — said that oil in runoff, largely from cars and cities, is the biggest source of ocean oil pollution, with natural seeps second and spills in third place. But hard data on oil in rivers is so scarce and the range of possible amounts so huge that — although the report put the figure from the U.S. about 20 times the earlier estimate — it couldn’t say whether there was an actual increase. Increases in urban land area, population and vehicle ownership make an increase “plausible ... but it is unclear by how much,” the report said.

Majors Shut-In Production Due to Hurricane Ian --Chevron and BP have revealed that they are shutting in production in response to Hurricane Ian. “Both offshore and onshore, Chevron is following our storm plans and paying close attention to the forecast and track of Hurricane Ian,” Chevron said in a company statement posted on its website. “In preparation for the tropical weather, we have begun transporting all personnel from our Petronius and Blind Faith platforms and are shutting-in the facilities,” Chevron added. Production at other Chevron-operated Gulf of Mexico assets remains at normal levels, the company highlighted. Chevron noted that it will continue to closely monitor the storm and remains focused on the safety of its workforce, the integrity of its facilities and the protection of the environment. In a statement posted on its site, BP said it is closely monitoring Hurricane Ian to protect its personnel and operations in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. “With forecasts indicating the hurricane will strengthen and move across the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days, we have taken steps to respond. BP has shut in production and evacuated all personnel from our Na Kika platform. BP is also shutting in production and evacuating all essential personnel from our Thunder Horse platform,” the company added in the statement. “Safety is our top priority and we will continue to monitor weather conditions closely to determine next steps,” BP continued. At the time of writing, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) has not published a hurricane monitoring report on Hurricane Ian. As of 5am EDT on September 27, Hurricane Ian had maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour and a 12 mile per hour northern movement, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center (NHC). “There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida West Coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region,” the NHC stated on its website. “Hurricane force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late today,” the NHC added.

12 Gulf of Mexico Platforms Evacuated as Ian Rages On - The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) revealed Tuesday that it has activated its hurricane response team and that it is monitoring offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico as they evacuate platforms and rigs in response to Hurricane Ian. Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted as of 11:30am CDT on September 27, personnel have been evacuated from a total of 12 production platforms, BSEE outlined. The figure represents 2.3 percent of the 521 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, the organization highlighted. The BSEE also pointed out that personnel have been evacuated from two non-dynamically positioned rigs, which it said is equivalent to 15.38 percent of the 13 rigs of this type currently operating in the Gulf, and revealed that a total of four dynamically positioned rigs have moved off location out of the storm’s path as a precaution, which it said represents 21 percent of the 19 DP rigs currently operating in the Gulf. From operator reports, BSEE estimates that approximately 11 percent of the current oil production and 8.56 percent of the natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in. The production percentages are calculated using information submitted by offshore operators in daily reports, the organization noted, adding that shut-in production information included in these reports is based on the amount of oil and gas the operator expected to produce that day. “As part of the evacuation process, personnel activate the applicable shut-in procedure, which can frequently be accomplished from a remote location,” BSEE said in a statement posted on its website. “This involves closing safety valves located below the surface of the ocean floor to prevent the release of oil or gas, effectively shutting in production from wells in the Gulf and protecting the marine and coastal environments. Shutting-in oil and gas production is a standard procedure conducted by industry for safety and environmental reasons,” BSEE added. “After the storm has passed, facilities will be inspected. Once all standard checks have been completed, production from undamaged facilities will be brought back online immediately. Facilities sustaining damage may take longer to bring back online,” BSEE went on to note.

 Biden Draining SPR Like "Campaign Credit Card" For Midterms - President Biden's reckless draining of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is nothing more than an election-year gimmick akin to using a 'credit card' to buy votes, according to Tim Stewart, president of the US Oil and Gas Association.According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the SPR hit their lowest levels since 1984 for the week ending Sept. 16. "This is the first time in history, honestly, that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been used as a campaign credit card to buy down political risk for the midterms," Stewart told Just the News."Let me put it in perspective if I could," he continued. "At the current rate, the U.S. is selling more oil out of its emergency reserves than the production of most medium-sized OPEC countries like Algeria or Angola. We're selling twice as much per day than we're producing out of Alaska. That puts us somewhere between Exxon and Conoco in terms of ... the impact we're having on the daily supply — and this is happening without new oil going into replace it."The conversation then turned to 'energy expert' Hunter Biden, who host John Solomon asked for Stewart's reaction to "the idea that the president's son ... could be working behind the scenes quietly to take our great energy wealth, send it over to China, while the boss, the president, the 'Big Guy' that they refer to in the documents, he's trying to lower our reliance [on fossil fuels] and keep us from using our energy wealth here."Stewart, who noted that the oil and gas trading industry is "very, very complex," replied: "I've been in this business for 25 years or so. And I can tell you, I am no more qualified to be a trader or a broker than an influence-peddling son of a former vice president. [Hunter Biden] had nothing to offer except for access, and access to his father, who in turn could make a call. And that's really what's wrong with Washington right now. And that is why this story is so so troubling to many of us."Stewart decried the "sheer hypocrisy" of Joe Biden "spending decades beating up on the oil and gas industry, profiting by it for that four years when he's not in public office, and then coming back in and trying to to hamstring and to kneecap our industry again." –JTN Watch:

U.S. E&P, OFS Execs Report Steady Activity, but ‘Inexpensive Natural Gas’ at End -- Oil and natural gas activity in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford and Haynesville shales expanded at a steady clip during the third quarter, but the pace decelerated from the record-breaking second quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said. The Dallas Fed, as it is known, collected 3Q2022 data from Sept. 14-22 from 163 energy firms headquartered in Louisiana, New Mexico and Texas. The quarterly polls for the Dallas Fed’s Eleventh District gauge activity trends and price forecasts from oilfield services (OFS) and exploration and production (E&P) executives. “The business activity index – the survey’s broadest measure of conditions facing Eleventh District energy firms – remained elevated at 46.0 but below the 57.7 record-breaking reading last quarter,” energy economists said. “This suggests the pace of the expansion decelerated slightly but remains solid.” On average, respondents expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to average $7.97/MMBtu at year’s end. Henry spot averaged $8.16 when the survey was taken. For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, executives predicted a price of $89/bbl at the end of December; WTI spot averaged $85.49 during the survey period. Asked if the “age of inexpensive U.S. natural gas” may come to an end as LNG exports to Europe expand, executives had varying views. “Most executives (69%) expect the age of inexpensive U.S. natural gas to end by year-end 2025,” the survey noted. “An additional 12% of executives think it will happen by year-end 2030 and 3% expect it to occur after 2030. The remaining 16% don’t expect the age of inexpensive U.S. natural gas to end.” One E&P executive said, “The price of natural gas has increased solely due to the reduction of Russian supplies. The price we have received the past several years has been below replacement cost since the market was flooded with new supply from ‘growth’ companies. “I would assume the price will drop very quickly if the Russia-Ukraine situation is ever resolved.” Another E&P executive said “inexpensive” was “a subjective view relative to natural gas prices. Over the past five-plus years, natural gas commodity pricing has materially impacted supply much greater than demand in the U.S. This has resulted in abnormally low natural gas pricing over this period. “As liquefied natural gas exports grow and natural gas volume growth in the U.S. moderates, natural gas pricing has increased and a new higher-floor pricing has emerged. While this pricing is higher in the U.S. relative to nearly all other areas around the world, U.S. gas consumers (individual and commercial) still enjoy the benefit of lower fuel cost inputs than others.” Even using a “hypothetical $7/MMBtu price, U.S. power generation still provides a material cost advantage to U.S. manufacturers,” the E&P executive said. “So, yes, it is more apparent that very low natural gas pricing is unlikely to return. However, the U.S. natural gas price for consumers is still highly competitive and in many ways advantageous relative to other western countries. Our supply assurance is materially higher at this still-competitive price.” Eighty-five percent of executives said they also expect a “significant tightening of the oil market by the end of 2024,” the survey noted. “Oil and gas industry activity has flatlined,” an E&P executive said. “We should incentivize equipment and material manufacturers and suppliers to increase supplies. According to E&P executives surveyed, oil and gas production increased at a similar pace compared with 2Q2022. The oil production index held fairly steady at 31.7 while the natural gas production index was “essentially unchanged at 35.6.” Costs increased for a seventh straight quarter, with the indexes near historical highs, according to the energy economists. The index for OFS input costs “remained elevated but slipped from its series high to 83.9. None of the 58 responding OFS firms reported lower input costs.” For the E&Ps, the index for finding and development costs was 64.7, down slightly from 2Q2022’s 70.6. The index for lease operating expenses was 70.2, slightly down from 74.1 in the previous three months. “It is taking longer for firms to receive materials and equipment,” the survey found. “The supplier delivery time index remained elevated at 28.4 in the third quarter, down slightly from a series high of 31.9 in the second quarter. Among OFS firms, the measure of lag time in delivery of services declined from 36.0 to 21.1 but remained well above average.”

 Oil export terminal plan exposes energy rift in Texas - Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg looked up from a stage in Texas last week and saw a banner hanging from the balcony. Its message: stop an oil shipping project.“Please Pete! … No Fossil Fuel Exports,” the banner read as Buttigieg continued a policy discussion.The demonstration in Austin, Texas, was part of a campaign to block the Sea Port Oil Terminal, one of four deepwater crude export facilities proposed for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Buttigieg’s federal Transportation Department has approval authority over the projects through its Maritime Administration. The debate over Sea Port and other developments shows the tension between two Biden administration goals — addressing climate change and maintaining a stable energy supply amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.Buttigieg, speaking during a question-and-answer session Thursday at the Texas Tribune Festival, said he’s familiar with the project, which has been the subject of thousands of written comments during environmental reviews. He said he couldn’t comment much because of “where it sits in the legal process,” but he said feedback would be considered.“We’re going take all of that input very seriously,” Buttigieg said, adding that “any outcome is going to be one that upholds the law.”Offshore terminals would solve one of the oil industry’s main problems on the Gulf Coast — virtually all of the harbors in the region are too shallow to handle the largest class of tankers, known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), when the ships are fully loaded. Federal permitting decisions are important because the first new terminal to start operating would have a competitive advantage (Energywire, March 25, 2019).VLCC-class ships are more than 1,000 feet long and require a channel at least 60 feet deep. Loading one off the Texas coast typically requires “reverse lightering,” in which a smaller tanker shuttles the crude from the shore to the larger ship.The Sea Port project would pump oil from storage tanks located inland to a platform about 30 miles off the coast of Surfside Beach, Texas, which is about 65 miles south of Houston. It would have a capacity of 2 million barrels of crude a day, according to an online presentation by Enterprise Products Partners LP, the terminal’s main developer.Sea Port is the farthest along of the four proposed terminals; the Maritime Administration completed its final environmental impact statement in August and could issue the permit in a few months.The developers of another project, Texas GulfLink, are expecting a final environmental impact statement soon and could receive a permit by the first quarter of 2023, Jeff Ballard, chief executive of parent company Sentinel Midstream, said in an email.

Dregs of US Oil Patch Are More in Demand Than Crude Itself – Bloomberg - In the hydrocarbon-rich fields of Texas, natural gas was always treated like the dregs that crews had to deal with as they pulled oil out of the ground. The two often emerge from wellheads together, and so for decades drillers would simply burn off the gas or sell it at cost. Oil, and all the riches that came with it, was always the big prize.Now, in a sign of just how much Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown global energy markets into disarray, it’s natural gas, not oil, that’s becoming more coveted in US shale fields. With Europe desperately seeking alternatives to Russian gas that powered furnaces and electricity grids, prices are skyrocketing and US drillers are scrambling to extract, liquefy and ship more of it overseas.

Exxon orders shale stand-down over rash of oilfield worker injuries (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil issued a temporary "stand-down" across its U.S. shale operations last week following back-to-back worker injuries, including one fatality, according to people familiar with the matter. The incidents, one of which marked the second death this year of a contractor, comes at a turning point for oilfield service firms straining to hire workers to restart some operations. Job cuts two years ago related to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a shortage of experienced oilfield employees. The stand-down follows two worker accidents within days at production sites run by Exxon's shale unit and comes as Exxon is facing multiple negligence lawsuits. A worker was injured in West Texas this month and an Axis Energy Services workman performing repair work was killed last Tuesday in east Texas. In March, a woman was crushed to death at another West Texas site operated by Exxon. "The safety and health of our workforce is always our top priority. Whenever there is an incident, we double our efforts to reinforce safety," Exxon said in response to questions about the stand-down. The top U.S. oil producer also said it was actively working with contractors to improve safety. The stand-down did not affect oil production, Exxon said, but activity was halted during maintenance work at a site following last week's fatality, Reuters reported last week. Oil and gas executives have pointed to the lack of skilled workers affecting their operations in a Dallas Federal Reserve Bank survey released this week. "We're seeing a greater percentage of hires who are new to the industry," said one executive said, lamenting the availability of qualified people. Exxon or its shale subsidiary XTO Energy this year have faced at least six negligence lawsuits resulting from injuries in west Texas, according to complaints filed in Harris County District Court in Houston. Each lawsuit seeks damages exceeding $1 million.

 A Petroleum PR Blitz in New Mexico - In the past seven months, oil and gas companies have dramatically stepped up their outreach and public relations spending at some of New Mexico’s best-known, best-loved events. The industry also picked up an additional public relations bump from the not unexpected news that oil and gas revenues will add an additional $2.5 billion to next year’s state government budget. This record breaking funding comes on the heels of last year’s record breaking budget, both of them courtesy of record breaking oil and gas production and record breaking oil and gas prices.All of this money sloshing around the state raises the positive public profile of the petroleum industry. Meanwhile, the public sees little of its state Legislature — but that doesn’t mean it’s not busy. After work at their day jobs and on weekends, legislators are defining and refining the measures — many dealing directly or indirectly with the oil and gas industry — that they plan to bring before the next legislative session. And when the state’s volunteer Legislature eventually returns to session in January, it will have to contend with an industry that spent the previous 11 months burnishing its image in ways that unpaid, part-time public servants simply can’t.“That PR piece has always been a center of the work of extractive industries,” says Angelica Rubio, state representative from Doña Ana County. She grew up in the Permian Basin, home to the largest oil and gas play on the planet, and she remembers how companies paid for scholarships and sports fields at her high school. “It’s kind of like, ‘OK, while we’re poisoning your water, we’re gonna go ahead and pay for this football field,’” she says.The scope and tone of the current PR blitz covers the gamut from — literally — hot air to cold cash. Early in the year, ExxonMobil became the prime sponsor of the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta, one of the state’s signature tourist draws. The company also ponied up to be a corporate backer of New Mexico United, the state’s wildly popular soccer team. (ExxonMobil’s subsidiary XTO was already a sponsor.) The deal is likely smaller than its sponsorship agreements with the NBA and WNBA, but it brings ExxonMobil name recognition in the stadium and company-branded soccer training camps for kids around the state. Not everyone is happy with the deal. A United fan club began a campaign to get the team todump ExxonMobil as a sponsor. The company didn’t respond to calls about its sponsorships, and NM United wouldn’t say how much the company paid for its high visibility patronage, but ExxonMobil does want to highlight its “renewable efforts,” according to United’s Chief Business Officer Ron Patel, “as that becomes more mainstream.” In the spring, Chevron became the top sponsor of the New Mexico State Fair, another of the state’s biggest draws, to the tune of $250,000 a year for the next three years. By comparison, a single Chevron lobbyist spent over $1 million on political donations around the state since 2020. This summer, Chevron, Oxy and ConocoPhillips donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to relief funds in the aftermath of the Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak wildfire — the largest in state history. While the fire started as a prescribed burn intentionally ignited by the U.S. Forest Service, the federal government’s own study concluded that fossil fuel-driven climate change made it historically catastrophic. In that report, the Forest Service chief also said that climate change had rendered the agency’s firefighting playbook obsolete. The local promotional and governmental windfalls burnish the reputation of an industry whose global image took a beating over the same period. World gas and other fuel prices spiked following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and have remained elevated even as some underlying supply issues ease and individual energy companies post quarterly profits largerthan New Mexico’s annual budget. And then there’s the constant global drumbeat of climate catastrophes, from heat waves tofloods to drought to hurricanes. All the while, industry money puts pressure on the state’s unpaid, part-time legislators, who once again will be proposing and debating bills to further supervise and regulate these same companies.

Crude oil spill south of Tioga — Workers have now recovered most of the oil after a crude oil spill near Tioga that happened around last Tuesday, September 20. About 8,400 gallons of oil was released after the line was stuck by third-party contractor Stealth Oilwell Services. The line is operated by Enable Bakken Crude and is about 14 miles south of Tioga. The oil spill impacted agricultural land. “This one’s gonna be, it’s all going to be dig and haul. The slow part was getting around the pipeline and then most of it, like I said, tracked along their borehole so they’ll just dig that up. Luckily there’s no other pipeline in there right now so it should be a pretty quick and straightforward cleanup,” said Bill Suess, the spill investigation program manager for the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. Personnel from the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality are inspecting the site and monitoring the cleanup.

Judge approves $230M settlement in California oil spill case -(AP) — A judge has approved a $230 million lawsuit settlement by the owners of a pipeline that spilled more than 140,000 gallons of crude oil into the ocean off California in 2015, lawyers announced Thursday. A federal judge in Los Angeles gave final approval on Tuesday to a settlement of a class-action suit that blamed All American Pipeline, L.P. and Plains Pipeline, L.P. for the May 2015 spill off the Santa Barbara coast. The corroded undersea pipeline ruptured north of Refugio State Beach in Santa Barbara County, northwest of Los Angeles. All American Pipeline later estimated that 142,800 gallons spilled. It was the worst California coastal oil spill since 1969. It blackened popular beaches for miles, killing or fouling hundred of seabirds, seals and other wildlife and hurting tourism and fishing. “Due to failed maintenance and extensive pipeline corrosion, the pipeline ruptured and spilled, devastating the fishing industry and soiling coastal properties from Santa Barbara County to Los Angeles County,” said a press statement from the law firms that filed the suit. People who believe they may be entitled to some of the money have until Oct. 31 to submit claims.

California To Ban Natural Gas Heaters By 2030 - California has made yet another step on its way to complete reliance on renewable energy by banning the use of gas-powered water heaters and furnaces from 2030. The proposal to ban these products was approved unilaterally by the California Air Resources Board yesterday, Bloomberg reports. “We’re really hopeful that this is the beginning of a domino effect and other states will follow California’s lead,” said Leah Louis-Prescott, an associate at RMI, a clean energy non-profit.The ban does not cover gas stoves for now but many cities in California are seeking to discourage the use of gas stoves and a switch to electric-only appliances.Now, with the gas furnace ban, Californians will have to familiarize themselves with heat pumps: all-electric heating appliances that are gaining popularity in Europe as an alternative to traditional heating methods.Touted as the way forward in heating technology, heat pumps are praised for efficiency and emission footprint but they do have constraints such as temperature and they add to electricity consumption, which could strain a grid designed for a certain—lower—level of consumption.Earlier this month California moved to ban the sales of internal-combustion engine cars from 2035. While climate activists have welcomed the news, there are some issues, such as the fact that EVs in California, which is the biggest EV market in the States, only make up 15 percent of new car sales, per figures from the California New Car Dealers' Association.Going from 15 percent to 100 percent in 11 years would be challenging for a car industry that is already struggling to find enough raw materials for the millions of EVs companies have committed to manufacture.Meanwhile, California continues to get some 40 percent of its power from fossil fuels. This needs to change if the state is to hit its own target of a zero-emission grid by 2045

Hammerhead Looks to Attack Montney for Natural Gas, Liquids Using CCS - Strong Montney Shale drilling results have prompted private equity giant Riverstone Holdings LLC to combine Hammerhead Resources Inc. and Decarbonization Plus Acquisition Corp. (DCRD) into an Alberta-based growth firm. The deal primes Hammerhead with C$240 million ($180 million) for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions using carbon capture and storage (CCS) while doubling production by 2030. “We aim to be a leader in redefining public expectations around how companies like ours can contribute to the advancement of global net zero goals,” said Hammerhead CEO Scott Sobie. “Not only does Hammerhead stand poised to harvest what we consider to be among the most attractive rates of return well locations in Western Canada, but Hammerhead’s current emissions profile is already advantaged through its investment of over C$400 million in modern, technically optimized facilities that are being utilized across its properties. “We believe an energy transformation is underway where conventional energy and power sources will continue to play an important role in the world energy mix for some time to come. The current global profile of both energy security and resource intermittency are demonstrating the need for continued reliance on conventional sources.” Hammerhead set a goal to cut Scope One and Two (direct and indirect) GHG emissions from its operations and those of suppliers by 79% as of 2029 and down to net zero in 2030, executives said. DCRD, a special purpose acquisition company, raised C$275 million ($206 million) last year. DCRD’s lead independent director Jim McDermott weighed in on the combination. “I believe the world must scale zero or low‑carbon replacements to fossil fuels quickly, and I celebrate consequential policy decisions that seek to accelerate the rollout of technologies such as direct air capture, hydro, modular nuclear, solar and wind.

Political Will, Supply Chain Said Essential for UK Shale Gas Industry with Staying Power - Despite recent action by the UK government to encourage unconventional natural gas extraction in England, a lasting domestic shale industry would need a dedicated supply chain and reliable support through changing political winds, according to prominent energy prognosticators. “I would just be shocked if anything could happen,” RBN Energy LLC CEO Rusty Braziel said last week during a webinar. “I mean, let’s face it, the entire European community has been totally paranoid about hydraulic fracturing for years and years now.” Noting that the UK government “all of a sudden” dropped the moratorium on fracturing amid tight natural gas supplies, Braziel predicted that political pressure to reinstate the ban would likely grow “as soon as things get back to something that resembles normal…” As a result, he expects exploration and production (E&P) companies to be reluctant to invest in shale drilling and fracturing operations that could be shut down by a new government. He said “maybe someone’s got enough courage to do that. I sure wouldn’t.” After UK Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled plans earlier this month to lift the fracturing moratorium, industry officials applauded the move. Rystad Energy’s Artem Abramov, head of global energy systems, told NGI that the UK shale industry’s growth hinges largely on the future regulatory environment and local community attitudes. “It is also not easy for dedicated E&Ps to attract new capital to finance early stages of shale gas in the country these days,” he said. The investor community, particularly in Europe, “remains very decarbonization-focused despite” the current preoccupation with the short-term energy crisis. A new supply chain would be needed to develop a lasting domestic shale gas industry in the UK, Kenneth Medlock III, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, told NGI. “There is no shale infrastructure really to speak of,” he said. Medlock explained that E&Ps need a steady supply pipeline of fracture sand, or proppant, as well as water to support shale operations. Shale developments demand “massive investments in human capital and supply chain infrastructure,” he said.

OIL SPILL: Cleanup teams remove oil from Gibraltar waters over weekend after discovering leak - Environmentalists helped government workers clean up the worst aéected area of Seven Sisters beach By John Culatto - 26 Sep, 2022 @ 15:45 OIL is disappearing from Gibraltar waters after salvage teams started to patch up the leak from the shipwreck stranded oé Catalan Bay. Cleanup crews have worked hard to clear the oil from the coast too, with the main focus being the remote Seven Sisters beach during the weekend. Divers discovered the source of the ship’s oil leak on Friday and made eéorts to patch it up on Saturday. “The oil that is escaping the vessel is likely to be unpumpable residues that remained in Tank 1 or the surrounding pipework,” the Gibraltar Government said in a statement. The OS 35 has caused widespread environmental damage to the Rock’s coastal areas since sinking after a collision at the end of August. Gibraltar government workers and environmentalist volunteers worked together to clean the Seven Sisters beach throughout the weekend. “The remainder of Gibraltar’s coastline remains largely oil-free, and cleanup teams are eéectively managing the limited amount of tar balls that are discovered during the daily shoreline assessments,” the government conêrmed. As the urgency of the situation subsided, the Port from Friday returned to normal operations, including refuelling

The Rising Risk Of Russian Oil Spills In Scandinavia - The narrow waterway between Denmark and Sweden – a key chokepoint for oil supply from Russia’s western ports – will see the risk of oil spills increase when the EU sanctions against Russian oil exports by sea enter into force at the end of this year. The UN agency International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Danish maritime authorities strongly recommend the use of a specialized pilot on ships passing through the Danish straits with its many islands. Although not obligatory, the recommendation is widely followed by the industry, with pilots being used on 95% of all 196 oil tankers that crossed the Great Belt, the main channel in the straits, last month, per data from the Danish Maritime Authority cited by the Financial Times. However, the EU sanctions against Russian oil exports by sea would in theory ban the provision of EU maritime transportation services to vessels carrying Russian oil, including specialized pilots from Denmark to help navigate the Danish straits. This, if not addressed, could raise the risk of dangerous and environmentally-disastrous oil spills from ships that would not use a specialized pilot or try to go dark and circumvent the sanctions. “Failure to comply with the rules and recommendations of the IMO will not only pose an environmental risk to Danish territorial waters. It will also pose a risk to the safety of navigation and the crew members on board the ships,” the Danish Maritime Authority told FT. The authority and the IMO “highly recommend” the usage of pilots on ships traveling through the Danish straits, but still, the Danish Maritime Authority told Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas earlier this month: “In conclusion, Denmark cannot prevent oil tankers from passing from the Baltic Sea to the high seas.” Analysts believe that there could be a compromise or some sort of solution to this situation because it’s estimated that around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude passes through the Danish straits from Russia’s Baltic Sea ports en route to the Atlantic.

Russia's ramped-up gas squeeze means an even deeper recession for Europe — and a sharp winter will pile on the pain, Deutsche Bank warns - The recession facing Europe will be more severe and drawn-out than previously feared, thanks to Moscow ratcheting up the pressure in energy supplies, Deutsche Bank has warned. That means European households and businesses should brace for a cold winter of rationing and organized power cuts, as countries struggle with to replace missing Russian gas imports. "We now foresee a longer and deeper recession than we did in July," the Wall Street bank's strategists said in a research note this week. While the EU has asked its members to store more gas, Deutsche Bank expects the trading bloc's members to suffer a recession this winter heating season due to higher levels of gas consumption. In July, Russia's Gazprom slashed its natural gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of capacity. The state-run energy giant completely cut off all the flows at the start of September. "This escalated the energy supply shock, adding further potential upside to inflation and downside to growth," said the bank's team, led by senior economist Peter Sidorov. The EU has made policy changes meant to help the 27 countries ease the impact of soaring energy prices, the bank noted. "However, demand for energy needs to decline, and the baseline call we made in July for a mild recession this winter is now too benign," its team said. Lower gas supply has sent European natural gas prices soaring, with benchmark Dutch TTF futures up 128% since the start of June. The euro has slid 8.6% to below $0.98 in the same time span. Deutsche Bank said Europe will need to impose cuts to gas consumption as a result of Moscow's shutoff, and that will lead to significant losses in industrial output. It will also drive up economic uncertainty and have a knock-on impact via trade. It also expects soaring energy bills to hit Europeans' incomes, leading to a fall in consumer spending. All told, that could lead to the eurozone's GDP falling by 3% from July to the same month next year, according to the strategists. That would represent a top-to-bottom drop in growth about 50% bigger than the fall during 2009's European sovereign debt crisis.

LNG regasification capacity more critical than supply for Europe-Vitol --LNG regasification capacity and the availability of slots for discharging LNG cargoes are more important for Europe at this point in time than to build supply projects, which can happen later, Russell Hardy, Vitol’s chief executive said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore Sept. 26. Hardy said US gas production continues to increase and there is more gas available in the US than it needs, so it is sensible for them to export as the political environment in the last 12 months is focused on supporting Europe with those LNG exports. “But an LNG plant takes four or five years to develop,” Hardy said. “So, a lot of the requirements, a lot of the investment effort, is on the receiving end at the moment with people trying to build receiving capacity so that Europe has an alternative to the Russian gas supply that’s been lost.” He added that Europe needed such infrastructure, and subsequently, it needed to backfill the supply to fill that infrastructure. “Today, European infrastructure is basically full. Every slot there is to discharge LNG has a cargo attached to it and so at this point really we need more slots,” Hardy said, adding that the slots are more important at the moment because there is immediate need for regasification. Two of the three offtake agreements tied to US-based project developer Tellurian’s proposed Driftwood LNG export terminal in Louisiana — one with Shell and the other with Vitol — were terminated Sept. 23, the developer said in a US regulatory filing. In August, Tellurian had amended the offtake agreements with Vitol and Shell to revise language about notice of termination after a deadline for the developer of the export project to meet certain conditions passed. Tellurian has said in a statement it would now prioritize securing equity partners to support the construction of Driftwood and that it believes the termination of the two offtake deals would provide flexibility in its efforts. “Driftwood remains an interesting project for Vitol and I think the Tellurian guys are just reassessing the best way to find the equity to build that project because each of those projects need a huge amount of money,” Vitol’s Hardy said. “It’s much more expensive to build an LNG liquefaction plant than it is to build a receiving terminal. And so they need to find the equity investors and push forward with their project, which I think is what they’re focused on,” Hardy added. He added that Europe has built gas inventories over summer to a level that is about normal for this time of year, which will give some supply security for the winter. “But the reality is we’ve just got a lot less daily supply coming into Europe, and so we’re very dependent on those inventories to get us through winter. So the price continues to try to ration demand,” Hardy said. He added that high prices are really trying to scare industrial demand away, which is not a great thing, because it has economic consequences. “We’re beginning to see a bit of a slump now in gas demand. And obviously, that’s going to help rebalance the market, but it’s going to come up come at a pretty severe economic cost,” Hardy added. The priority in the power sector is to use what remaining capacity there is for other fuels, he added, which means burning a little bit more coal this winter. “I don’t think anybody’s happy about it, but it’s just the simple reality of a difficult situation that we’re in,”

Pressure Mysteriously Plunges in Nord Stream 1, 2 -- Reuters reported that the Russian-owned Nord Stream 2 pipeline experienced a sudden loss in pressure, and a leak was detected in Danish waters on Monday. "A leak today occurred on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Danish area," said Denmark's energy agency.Danish authorities said the leak occurred in the exclusive economic zone southeast of Bornholm island. Danish Maritime Authority announced all vessels must avoid the area:"Mariners are advised not to navigate within a five nautical miles area of the mentioned position." Russian energy giant Gazprom, NS2's operator, released a statement that said "marine authorities of Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Russia have been notified immediately" about the pressure drop, adding an "investigation is ongoing." "Overnight the Nord Stream 2 landfall dispatcher registered a rapid gas pressure drop on Line A of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline," NS2's operator said. NS2 spokesman Ulrich Lissek told AFP a "large bubble field near Bornholm" was spotted. He noted, "pipeline was never in use, just prepared for technical operation, and therefore filled with gas." Lissek said pressure inside NS2 usually is about 105 bars. It is now only 7 bars on the German side... A spokeswoman for the German economy ministry said there's "no clarity" on what caused the NS2's pressure drop: "We are currently in contact with the authorities concerned in order to clarify the situation. We still have no clarity about the causes and the exact facts." Update: It's not just NS2: according to Reuters, Nord Stream AG, the operator of the Nord Stream 1 undersea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, said Monday it was looking into causes of a drop in pressure in the pipeline. "Tonight, dispatchers from the Nord Stream 1 control centre recorded a pressure drop on both branches of the gas pipeline," it said in a statement. "The reasons are being clarified."

Denmark reports leak in gas pipeline in Baltic Sea - (AP) — Denmark's maritime authority said Monday that a gas leak had been observed in a pipeline leading from Russia to Europe underneath the Baltic Sea and that there is a danger to ship traffic. The operator of Nord Stream 2 confirmed that a leak in the pipeline had been detected southeast of the Danish island Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. The pipeline runs 1,230 kilometers (764 miles) from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany. It is completed and filled with gas, but gas has never been imported through it, dpa reported. The cause of the detected leak wasn't immediately clear. The Danish energy agency said in a statement that the country’s maritime authority has issued a navigation warning and established a five-nautical mile prohibition zone around the pipeline “as it is dangerous for ship traffic.” The relevant authorities are currently coordinating the effort, and the Danish energy agency added that “outside the exclusion zone, there are no security risks associated with the leak.” The incident is not expected to have consequences for the security of the supply of Danish gas, the country’s energy agency said. A spokesman for the operator of Nord Stream 2 said a loss of pressure was detected in a tube early Monday, and the responsible marine authorities in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Russia were immediately informed, dpa reported. While the pressure inside the pipeline is normally 105 bar, it is now only 7 bar on the German side, spokesman Ulrich Lissek said. He fears that the pipeline, filled with 177 million cubic meters of gas, could run dry in the coming days, dpa reported.

Unprecedented, simultaneous damage to both Nord Stream pipelines; Norway warns of threats from unidentified drones flying over gas and oil platforms - A sharp drop in pressure has been detected on Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines on September 26, 2022. The investigation into the cause is in progress. On the same day, Norway’s oil safety regulator warned of threats from unidentified drones seen flying near their offshore oil and gas platforms. Nord Stream AG – a Switzerland-based consortium for the construction and operation of the Nord Stream (Nord Stream 1) submarine pipeline between Vyborg in Russia and Greifswald in Germany, a key factor in securing energy security in Europe – announced on September 27 that the harm that occurred on the same day simultaneously on three lines of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 offshore gas pipelines was unprecedented, adding that it is not yet possible to estimate the recovery time frame.1 According to Reuters, Danish authorities on Monday, September 26, asked ships to steer clear of a five nautical mile radius southeast off Bornholm after a gas leak from the defunct Nord Stream 2 pipeline drained into the Baltic Sea. “There are two leaks on Nord Stream 1 – one in Swedish economic zone and one in Danish economic zone. They are very near each other,” a Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) spokesperson told Reuters.2 Later the same day, the operator of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which ran at reduced capacity from mid-June before shutting down completely in August, also disclosed a pressure drop on both lines of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. The Danish Defense Command released an image of Nord Stream 2 gas leak detected by their F-16 interceptor on Bornholm: The largest gas leak creates turbulence on the surface of 1 km (0.62 miles) in diameter. The smallest makes a circle of approximately 200 m (656 feet). According to the SVT TV channel, the Swedish seismic center recorded 2 underwater explosions on the Nord Stream routes. Following the three gas leaks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, prohibition zones have been established around the leaks for the sake of the safety of ship and air traffic, the Danish Defence Command said.5 Nord Stream 1 has two leaks northeast of Bornholm, Nord Stream 2 has one leak south of Dueodde, it added. “The defense is supporting in connection with the authorities’ efforts regarding the leaks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The frigate Absalon and the pollution control vessel ship Gunnar Thorson are on their way to carry out water monitoring at the exclusion zones, and the Danish Defence are also supporting with a helicopter capacity. In addition, the patrol ship Rota was in the area last night.”

Several Leaks Found in Nord Stream Pipelines - On September 27, several leaks were found in the Nord Steam 1 and 2 (NS1 and NS2) pipelines in Danish and Swedish territory, Rystad Energy Senior Analyst Fabian Ronningen highlighted in a market note sent to Rigzone late Tuesday. “The leaks were described as very large, and the operator Nord Steam AG described the damage as ‘unprecedented’,” Ronningen said in the note. Ronningen outlined that NS1 has not been transporting gas since late August but added that there is still gas in the system to maintain pressure, “causing the large leak of natural gas into the ocean in Swedish and Danish territory”. “NS1 will not come back to normal operation until at least October 26, the operator said in a statement,” Ronningen stated in the note. “Since gas has not been flowing through NS1 anyway, the short-term impact on gas prices and fundamentals are expected to be limited, however, the long-term implications are highly uncertain as to when flows will return if they return at all,” Ronningen added. In a statement posted on its website on Tuesday, Nord Stream AG outlined that the “significant” pressure drop caused by the gas leak on both lines of the gas pipeline leads to a “strong assumption” of “physical damage”. “Nord Stream AG immediately informed the relevant coast guards about the incident. The positions of two assumed damages have been identified and are located north-east from Bornholm in Swedish and Danish EEZ, respectively,” the company said in the statement. “Nord Stream AG has started mobilization of all necessary resources for a survey campaign to assess the damages in cooperation exchange with relevant local authorities,” the company added. In a statement posted on its website on Tuesday, the Danish Defence Command (DDC) revealed that prohibition zones had been established around three gas leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines “for the sake of the safety of ship and air traffic”. “The defense is supporting in connection with the authorities’ efforts regarding the leaks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea,” the DDC said.

Danish Prime Minister says her government views Nord Stream natural pipeline leaks as 'deliberate actions' (AP) — Danish Prime Minister says her government views Nord Stream natural gas pipeline leaks as 'deliberate actions.'

Sabotage suspected as gas leaks from Nord Stream 1 and 2, gas prices turn volatile -- The Danish and Swedish officials report that the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia and Germany, which are currently out of operation owing to the conflict in Ukraine, suffered abrupt and unexplainable losses in the Baltic Sea. Nord Stream AG, the network operator, reported “unprecedented” damage to three offshore lines of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline systems, saying that it is hard to predict when the system’s functioning capacity will be restored. Swedish officials spoke of two Nord Stream 1 breaches, one in the Danish marine economic zone and the other in the Swedish one. According to reports, the two leaks are fairly close to one another. The Swedish side said that the leak sites in its special economic zone and the same area in Denmark are located not far from each other – to the northeast of the island of Bornholm. Earlier, a sharp pressure drop occurred in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for an unknown reason. According to the latest information, the incident happened on the gas pipeline segment located in Danish territorial waters. Nord Stream 2 was full of gas and ready to begin pumping from Russia to Germany. Even if Germany were to authorise gas pumping, this “option” is becoming more improbable since the issue must be removed.

Germany Suspects Sabotage Hit Nord Stream Pipelines --Germany suspects the Nord Stream gas pipeline system was damaged by an act of sabotage, in what would amount to a major escalation in the standoff between Russia and Europe. According to a German security official, the evidence points to a violent act rather than a technical issue. Swedish seismologists detected two explosions in the area on Monday, when leaks appeared almost simultaneously in the Baltic Sea. It’s the clearest signal yet that Europe will have to survive this winter without any significant Russian gas flows, and potentially marks a major escalation in the broader conflict between Moscow and Ukraine’s allies. The pipelines were already out of action, but any hope that the Kremlin might have turned the taps back on at some point have now been dashed. Gas prices jumped, and Denmark moved to bolster security around its energy assets. “It’s hard to imagine that these are coincidences,” Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s prime minister, told reporters Tuesday. “We can’t rule out sabotage.” The leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines are forming an area of natural gas bubbles in the Baltic Sea, a video released by the Danish army on its website showed. Se video og fotos af gaslækagerne på Nord Stream 1 og 2-gasledningerne i Østersøen på https://t.co/pj96CN7CDB: https://t.co/7bgt8TljaH #dkforsvar pic.twitter.com/I1zEPaBLYO — Forsvaret (@forsvaretdk) September 27, 2022 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that before the results of an investigation, it was premature to speculate on possible sabotage. “Nothing can be ruled out,” he said. Russia has been squeezing energy supplies to Europe for months, engaging in a cat-and-mouse game as it tries to exert maximum pressure on Ukraine’s allies. Europe has responded by filling up gas stores and trying to source alternative supplies. For now, it looks like those efforts will be enough to get Europe through this winter, though questions remain over the following one. The bloc got about 40% of its pipeline gas from Russia before the war, a figure that now stands at about 9%.

EU Chief Calls Nord Stream Attack "Sabotage", Warns Of "Strongest Possible Response" - European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the Nord Stream pipeline system leaks were caused by "sabotage," and warned of the "strongest possible response" should active European energy infrastructure be attacked. Paramount to now investigate the incidents, get full clarity on events & why.Any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable & will lead to the strongest possible response. September 27, 2022 Earlier, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the three separate leaks on NS1 and NS2 as "deliberate acts," adding: "It’s hard to imagine that it’s accidental."On Monday, Swedish seismologists reported the detection of underwater explosions - shortly after which large patches of roiling gas could be seen on the surface in the same area.As rumors swirl over who is responsible for the incident, one message it sent was clear - vital systems are vulnerable to attack."The most important message that somebody wants to send, is what one is capable of doing with an offline pipeline can also be done with active pipelines, or undersea cables, or other infrastructure," said Julian Pawlak, a researcher at the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, in a statement to the NY Times.In response, Denmark and Norway announced increased security around their energy infrastructure, and Norway, now Europe’s most important producer of gas and oil, called for “increased vigilance by all operators and vessel owners.” In a statement, Norway’s energy minister, Terje Aasland, cited “reports of increased drone activity” around its coast, and said that much of what he had learned of the Nord Stream incidents “indicates acts of sabotage.” -NY Times And while Poland's former Defense Minister appeared to thank the United States for the attack (a perfectly good explanation for which we're sure is will be offered), Poland's PM, Mateusz Morawiecki, laid the blame on Russia for targeting the pipelines - suggesting that the attack was an attempt to escalate the Ukraine conflict."We do not know the details of what happened yet, but we can clearly see that it is an act of sabotage," said Morawiecki, adding "An act that probably marks the next stage in the escalation of this situation in Ukraine."

Methane blast in Baltic Sea highlights global problem - (AP) — Scientists have been measuring the scale of the massive methane leak from damaged pipelines in the Baltic Sea, with the latest figures equating the levels of gas escaping to the annual emissions of some whole countries. It is believed to be the single biggest recorded gas leak over a short period of time.But as serious as the methane escaping from ruptured pipelines may be, there are alarming incidents of massive methane releases around the world frequently.Climate scientists have found that methane emissions from the oil and gas industry are far worse than what companies are reporting, despite claims by some major firms that they’ve reduced their emissions. That matters because natural gas, a fossil fuel widely used to heat homes and provide electricity, is made up of methane, a potent climate warming gas. It escapes into the atmosphere from well sites and across the natural gas distribution network, from pipelines and compressor stations, to theexport terminals that liquefy gas to ship it overseas.Scientists measuring methane from satellites in space have found that methane emissions from oil and gas operations are usually at least twice what companies reported, said Thomas Lauvaux, a scientist at University of Reims in France. In the Permian Basin, the largest oil and gas field in the United States, methane emissions were two to three times higher than what companies reported, he said. “Everybody claims they have reduced their emissions, but it’s not true,” Lauvaux said. Globally, Turkmenistan is among the worst offenders for releasing methane into the atmosphere, while Saudi Arabia is among the best at capturing it based on satellite observations, Lauvaux said. The U.S. falls somewhere in the middle with some companies capturing methane pretty well and others performing terribly.Lauvaux and other scientists have observed more than 1,500 major methane leaks globally, and potentially tens of thousands of smaller leaks, using satellites, he said.

U.S. Blew Up Russian Gas Pipelines Nord Stream 1 & 2, Says Former Polish Defense Minister - A former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, has attributed to the United States the sabotage of two pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and 2, which carry natural gas from Russia to Germany. “Thank you, USA,” Sikorski wrote on Twitter. Sikorski was Minister of National Defense from 2005 - 2007 and served as Deputy Minister of National Defense and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, previously. He is currently an elected member of the European parliament. Nord Stream 1 and 2 lie on the bed of the Baltic Sea. Nord Stream 2 was finished last year but Germany never opened it because Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. Thank you, USA. pic.twitter.com/nALlYQ1Crb — Radek Sikorski MEP (@radeksikorski) September 27, 2022 Poland’s Secretary of State, Stanisław Żaryn, denounced Sikorki’s claim on Twitter as “Russian #propaganda,” calling it “a smear campaign against Poland, the US, and Ukraine, accusing the West of aggression against #NS1 and #NS2. Authenticating the Russian lies at this particular moment jeopardizes the security of Poland. What an act of gross irresponsibility!” Russian #propaganda instantly launched a smear campaign against Poland, the US and Ukraine, accusing the West of aggression against #NS1 and #NS2. Authenticating the Russian lies at this particular moment jeopardizes the security of Poland. What an act of gross irresponsibility! pic.twitter.com/S9YJKRCv9B — Stanisław Żaryn (@StZaryn) September 27, 2022But it’s not out of the realm of the possible that the U.S. is indeed behind the attack. President Joe Biden promised on February 7 to prevent Nord Stream 2 from becoming operational if Russia invaded Ukraine. "If Russia invades,” said Biden, “then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?" Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

The Mysterious Attack on Two Major Gas Pipelines for Europe - If European officials were ever holding out hope that diplomatic relations with Russia would soon get back to normal, and that natural gas could once again flow throughout the continent, that appears to have been blown up — four times, in fact. On Thursday, a fourth natural-gas leak was detected from two gas pipelines running through international waters that connected Germany with Russia, after officials previously thought that there were only three. These pipelines, the Nord Stream 1 and 2, had been turned off or were never fully operational since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March, but had held tons of idled pressurized natural gas. That has since been spewing into the Baltic Sea, with one of the largest explosions off the Danish Coast. The sea borders Poland, Germany, and the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, in plumes that are reportedly about a kilometer wide: This was sabotage, according NATO officials, echoing earlier comments made by German and Polish officials. “We can’t imagine a scenario that isn’t a targeted attack. Everything speaks against a coincidence,” a German official told the newspaper Tagesspiegel. Vladimir Putin called it an act of “international terrorism,” without saying who exactly was behind it. Underground oil pipelines like these — which hug the floor of the sea — don’t typically leak, as each segment of pipe is coated in concrete andweighs about 24 tons. The operator of the pipelines initially said there was “a pressure drop on both strings of the gas pipeline” and that it was investigating; then later added that the leaks lead them to “a strong assumption” that the pipeline was physically damaged, and that a perimeter of five nautical miles has been established around the leaks. As Bloomberg columnist and energy expert Javier Blas points out, natural or more prosaic explanations for the leaks are unlikely.The evidence so far is pointing toward some kind of deliberate explosion. The Swedish National Seismic Network said that it detected blasts in the Baltic Sea. “There is no doubt that these are blasts or explosions,” Björn Lund, a seismologist with the Network, told SVT, a Swedish news site. On Thursday, German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that German officials believe that an underwater explosion equivalent to 500 kilograms of TNT were used to destroy the pipelines. European officials are still investigating the blast, however, and it could take as long as a week to stop the gas leak.The environmental impact is complicated. The Baltic Sea has been hostileto marine life since around the 1950s, when it was a dumping ground, and has suffered from a process called eutrophication, which leads to reduced oxygen levels in the water. The estimated amount of gas that was sitting in the pipeline would make it the largest known leak ever — around 1 percent of what Germany produces annually — but still a small amount compared to the overall world emissions, according to Politico.So why is this happening now? That is still unclear. Late on Tuesday, Der Spiegel reported, and the New York Times confirmed, that the C.I.A. had given some non-specific warnings to a few countries, including Germany, that the pipeline could be a target. The Nord Stream 1 had the capacity to deliver 550 billion cubic meters of gas a year to Europe, but it had essentially been turned off for months as part of Europe’s sanctions against Russia — one of the main reasons for soaring gas prices in Europe. The Nord Stream 2 was never operational, with Germany opting out of activating it to punish Russia. Despite the accusations from European officials, it’s still unclear who might have blown it up. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration would not speculate as to who was behind it. “Our partners are investigating this, so we stand ready to provide support to their efforts once they have completed their investigation,” she said. The Russians denied responsibility, and have tried to pin this as a false-flag operation by the U.S. or Ukraine. This was happily taken up by Tucker Carlson, who went on his show to suggest that the U.S. was responsible for the explosions as a way to get more people to buy electric vehicles. This was immediately co-opted by Russian propaganda outlets.

West rejects Putin's claim it sabotaged Baltic gas pipelines - (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday accused the West of sabotaging Russia-built natural gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea to Germany, a charge vehemently denied by the United States and its allies.Nordic nations said the undersea blasts that damaged the pipelines this week and have led to huge methane leaks involved several hundred pounds of explosives.The U.S.-Russia clashes continued later at an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council in New York called by Russia on the attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, and as Norwegian researchers published a map projecting that a huge plume of methane from the damaged pipelines will travel over large swaths of the Nordic region.Speaking Friday in Moscow at a ceremony to annex four regions of Ukraine into Russia, Putin claimed that “Anglo-Saxons” in the West have turned from imposing sanctions on Russia to “terror attacks,” sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in what he described as an attempt to “destroy the European energy infrastructure.”He added that “those who profit from it have done it,” without naming a specific country.In Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden dismissed Putin’s pipeline claims as outlandish.“It was a deliberate act of sabotage. And now the Russians are pumping out disinformation and lies. We will work with our allies to get to the bottom (of) precisely what happened,” Biden promised, adding that divers would be sent down to inspect the pipelines. "Just don’t listen to what Putin’s saying. What he’s saying we know is not true.”U.S. officials said the Putin claim was trying to shift attention from his annexation Friday of parts of Ukraine.“We’re not going to let Russia’s disinformation distract us or the world from its transparently fraudulent attempt to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory,” White House National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Friday.At the United Nations, Sergey Kupriyanov, spokesman for the Russian state-owned company Gazprom, which is the majority stakeholder in Nord Stream, told the council that data regarding the sudden drop in pressure in the pipeline and the gas leakage “make it possible to say with certainty that the leaks in the pipelines was caused by physical damage.” Kupriyanov said in a video briefing that Gazprom has begun searching for possible solutions to make the Nord Stream system operational again. There is no estimate of how long it will take, he said, “but we can say with certainty that the task will be very daunting from a technical standpoint.”

German Authorities Fear Nord Stream Pipelines May Be Permanently Unusable Following Sabotage - German security officials believe that both Nord Stream 1 and 2 could be damaged beyond repair as large amounts of corrosive saltwater flowed into pipelines following multiple leaks that were discovered on Tuesday, The Telegraph reported on Wednesday. European countries found significant gas leaks at three separate locations in the Baltic Sea which caused the pipelines’ pressure to drop, forcing the pipelines to go offline. German authorities are concerned that the saltwater’s damage to the pipelines could make them permanently inoperable which would further cut fuel supplies to an energy-starved Germany, according to The Telegraph, which cited the German outlet Tagesspiegel.Both the German government and the European Union believe that the leaks were caused by an intentional act of sabotage. Sweden detected underwater explosions in the pipeline’s area before the damage was detected, according to The New York Times.Germany is currently embroiled in an energy crisis that is being exacerbated by the reduction of Russian gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The German government is planning to place price caps on natural gas and electricity to bring down the crippling energy bills that are forcing businesses to shut down, according to The Wall Street Journal.Russia, which delivered 45% of Europe’s natural gas before the invasion of Ukraine, has also been previously accused of cutting off gas deliveries to punish Europe for its support of Ukraine. However, the Russian government on Wednesday claimed that it had nothing to do with the pipeline leaks, according to Reuters.

European Energy Security Faces New Risks With Nord Stream Explosions - The temporary optimism among European politicians and governments about a less volatile natural gas market during the winter of 2022-2023 has come to an end. Just as market fundamentals seemed to be strengthening as a result of rising storage volumes and lower demand, there are a number of new risks. First of all, the Dutch government announced this week that Europe’s largest onshore gas field Groningen will be put on the back burner, with gas production of less than 2 BCM, as predictions showed no extra volumes are needed anymore. The reality, however, might be more difficult to predict. With a longer duration of the Ukraine war, possibly even with a nuclear scenario at play, and EU sanctions on Russian oil on the horizon, the market is potentially heading for a dark scenario. In all existing scenarios, even those of the Dutch government, Russian natural gas would be still flowing in the next couple of months, albeit at very low levels. At the same time, new supply has been studied, not only LNG imports but also the potential of the new Baltic gas pipeline which has now been opened in Poland. Optimism however is a bad advisor, as we can see today. Nord Stream 1 and 2 have been hit by leakages and explosions on Tuesday. Danish authorities already have warned vessels to steer away from the island of Bornholm, as a gas leak has been reported at the Russian-owned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Nord Stream AG, the operator, also said that Nord Stream 1 has operational issues, including a power drop in both lines. On Monday, the German regulator had already stated that the pressure in Nord Stream 2 had dropped from 105 to 7 bars. Both gas pipelines are currently already empty, as Russia has cut off gas supplies before. Analysts are worried that the leakages and explosions on both lines are not an incident but linked to the launch of the Baltic Pipe, which carries Norwegian gas to Poland. It is rather coincidental that both Russian offshore gas pipelines are hit at the same time, or even just before the opening of another pipeline. Last week, Norway has also reported increased activity of unknown and unidentified drones close to crucial offshore oil and gas infrastructure. Norway’s Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) has now openly warned about the presence of unidentified drones near offshore oil and gas facilities. The PSA stated that operators have reported the presence of drones during the last couple of months, highlighting the potential of “deliberate attacks”. As the PSA said “we urge increased vigilance, revised emergency preparedness and incident response measures, and information sharing.” Even though no official connection has been made with state actors, the current situation could become very volatile in case of further escalation on the Ukrainian front. The security of offshore energy production, especially in the North Sea, is still very weak. A potential aggressor could without any doubt take advantage of the situation and deal significant damage to Europe’s energy market during the coming months. Norway’s offshore oil and gas infrastructure is a highly strategic target for Moscow. Putin could, and most probably, will exploit additional energy infrastructure weaknesses this winter. Not only other Russian oil and gas pipelines will be seeing unexpected technical issues or sabotage, but third parties could also become a target. A disruption of Norwegian energy supplies to the European Union or the UK could lead to faster depletion of natural gas storage facilities in Europe a potentially add to the already existing chaos in the energy market.

In Dramatic Escalation, European Nat Gas Prices Soar After Gazprom Warns Ukraine Flows At Risk - In a day of constant news surrounding European gas flows, including the potential sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, moments ago, Russia state-owned gas giant Gazprom PJSC warned that another major source of gas flows to Europe was at risk, just hours after three massive gas pipelines were hit by suspected sabotage. As Bloomberg reports, in a dramatic escalation of the energy standoff between Russia and Europe in little over 24 hours, the Nord Stream pipeline was knocked out by what German officials said looked like sabotage. Gazprom then said that one of two remaining routes bringing gas to Europe - via Ukraine - was at risk because of a legal spat. Specifically, as Reuters notes, Gazprom rejected all claims from Ukraine's energy firm Naftogaz in arbitration proceedings over Russian gas transit, and had notified the arbitration court. It also said that Russia may introduce sanctions against Naftogaz in case it further pursues the arbitration case, meaning Gazprom would be prohibited by the sanctions from paying Ukraine the transit fees. Naftogaz had initiated a new arbitration proceeding against Gazprom earlier this month, saying the Russian company did not pay for the rendered service of gas transportation through Ukraine. The company had said "funds were not paid by Gazprom, neither on time nor in full" for the gas transit. Gazprom said on Tuesday that Naftogaz had no "appropriate reasons" to reject its obligations on transit via the Sokhranovka point, a key route for Russian gas exports to Europe. In May, Ukraine suspended the flow of gas through Sokhranovka, which it said delivers almost a third of the fuel piped from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, blaming Moscow for the move and saying it would move the flows elsewhere. Following the report that Russia may soon halt natgas transit via Ukraine, gas prices quickly jumped almost 20% as traders factored in the prospect that Europe will have to live without Russian gas this winter - and beyond. Gazprom said that a legal dispute risks prompting Moscow to sanction Ukraine’s Naftogaz. If that happened, then Gazprom would be unable to pay transit fees, the company said on Telegram, putting at risk flows. “In practice, this will mean a ban on Gazprom from fulfilling obligations to sanctioned bodies under completed transactions, including financial transactions,” the company said. If, or rather when, supplies through Ukraine are shut down, it would leave Gazprom sending gas only via the TurkStream pipeline to Turkey and a handful of European countries that haven't severed business ties with Russia.

Fourth leak found in Nord Stream pipelines - (video) The Swedish Coast Guard (SCG) said they found a fourth leak in Nord Stream pipelines on September 29, 2022, just 3 days after underwater explosions severely damaged two Nord Stream 1 pipes and one Nord Stream 2.1 NS 1 and 2 are key underwater pipelines built to deliver Russian natural gas to Germany. Nord Stream AG – a Switzerland-based consortium for the construction and operation of the Nord Stream (Nord Stream 1) said earlier this week the damage is unprecedented. Due to the severity of the damage, the repairs would take several months or more. The fourth leak was detected on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, in close proximity to a larger hole found on the nearby Nord Stream 1, the Swedish coast guard said today.2 Two of the four leaks are in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone and the other two are in the Danish exclusive economic zone. On Wednesday, September 28, SCG said they are working on the ongoing environmental rescue operation and assisting the police and prosecutors in their work with the investigations. The situation has not changed since the gas leak was discovered, SCG said, adding the gas leak in the Swedish economic zone is constant. On the same day, the European Union promised a robust response to any intentional disruption of its energy infrastructure. “The European Union is deeply concerned about damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that has resulted in leaks in the international waters of the Baltic Sea,” Joseph Borrell, a High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR/VP), said in a statement.3 “Safety and environmental concerns are of utmost priority. These incidents are not a coincidence and affect us all. “All available information indicates those leaks are the result of a deliberate act. We will support any investigation aimed at getting full clarity on what happened and why, and will take further steps to increase our resilience in energy security. “Any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is utterly unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response.” On Thursday, September 29, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told the Soloviev Live TV that pipeline incidents took place in ‘an area that is fully controlled by US intelligence agencies.’4 Commenting on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipeline leaks, Zakharova recalled that officials in Washington had asserted early this year that Nord Stream 2 would never go into service. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman demanded, among other things, that US President Joe Biden issue a reply as to whether Washington had carried out its threat over the pipelines on September 25 and 26. What Zakharova was referring to was the US president’s statement made in February 2022: “If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.” When asked how exactly, the president said, “I promise you, we will be able do that.” Former US President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday this [the sabotage] could lead to major escalation or war. Referring to theories alleging that Russia was involved in the Nord Stream incidents, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Pesokov said it is ‘predictably stupid to voice such versions.’ “This is a big problem for us. Both lines of Nord Stream 2 are filled with gas, the entire system is ready to pump gas, and this gas is very expensive,” Peskov specified.

Russia Gas Pipelines Now Have Four Leaks, Blamed by Some on Sabotage - Another leak on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea has been disclosed, bringing the total number of ruptures to four, according to the Swedish Coast Guard’s Command Center. Sweden’s Coast Guard became aware of two leaks in the pipelines in the country’s exclusive economic zone on Monday, at the same time they learned of two in Denmark, a spokesman said by phone. Officials put the information on their website, but were “surprised” that it wasn’t known broadly, with just one leak near Sweden talked about in the past days, the spokesman said. Local media in the Nordic country began reporting on the fourth leak late Wednesday. It isn’t known where exactly the leaks are located on the pipes’ structures, according to the spokesman. The Coast Guard is monitoring the site, and has a remote-controlled underwater robot on location. Gas has been bubbling up from the pipelines since earlier this week, with Denmark estimating that the links would empty by Sunday. Several governments have called the actions “deliberate” and “sabotage,” with Finland on Wednesday noting that only a state actor could be capable of acts on such a scale. The incident has prompted increased security on energy infrastructure across Europe, with some, such as Poland, pointing the finger at Russia, which is waging war in Ukraine and has curbed gas flows to Europe. Norway is now Europe’s biggest gas exporter and its largest energy companies said Wednesday that they are boosting security around their offshore assets. The Nord Stream pipelines traverse the Baltic Sea to Germany from Russia, running on the seabed in international waters. Two leaks are in Sweden’s economic zone, and two in Denmark’s. The bubbling areas above the leaks in Sweden’s zone measure about 800 meters (2,600 feet) in diameter above pipeline 1 and about 150 meters above pipeline 2, respectively, according to the Coast Guard. The pipelines were already out of action, but any hope that the Kremlin might have turned the taps back on at some point have now been dashed. Police in Denmark and Sweden are investigating the events. Russia has been squeezing energy supplies to Europe for months, engaging in a cat-and-mouse game as it tries to exert maximum pressure on Ukraine’s allies. Europe has responded by filling up gas stores and trying to source alternative supplies. For now, it looks like those efforts will be enough to get Europe through this winter, though questions remain over the following one. The bloc got about 40% of its pipeline gas from Russia before the war, a figure that now stands at about 9%.

Science | The mystery of Russian gas -At the end of August, the Finns saw a huge flame rising in the sky from a Russian methane station near Saint Petersburg. Then, Canadian satellites reported an increase in natural gas leaks in Russia. Is Pushkin’s homeland wasting the gas it no longer wants to sell to Europe? An “environmental disaster”. That’s how Norway’s energy information firm Rystad called flaring — a practice of burning the natural gas waste associated with oil extraction, according to the World Bank — in Portovaya, Russia, near from the border with Finland. This unusual flaring would produce 9000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per day, or the annual emissions of two cars. The media immediately linked this massive methane incineration, which lasted all summer, to the end of Russian methane deliveries to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline – the head of which is also located in Portovaya. “Flaring at Portovaya was down a bit in September, but it’s still much higher than June,” says Jessica McCarty, a fire greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions specialist at the University of Miami. in Ohio. It is lucky that there are few forest fires this year in Russia because we would have had the perfect storm. It’s the army that puts out the forest fires, and they’re busy in Ukraine. According to Mark Davis, CEO of UK flare management firm Capterio, the unusually intense flames at Portovaya originated from a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant adjacent to the Nord Stream 1 compressor. will be transformed into LNG, but the capacity is much less, 25 to 30 times less. That said, Portovaya is just one of thousands of flare sites in Russia. The most important are linked to oil production in Siberia. » Montreal-based methane leak detection firm GHGSat also noted a “significant” increase in leaks at compressor stations in Russia’s gas pipeline network in August, according to GHGSat president Stephane Germain. There was a five to tenfold increase in the volume of leaks at 16 locations between late July and late August. An increase of this magnitude is normally deliberate. According to Mr. Davis, it is likely that the methane which is no longer exported to Europe will be released into the atmosphere. “We can lower well production, but only up to a point. Reducing production too much can damage a tank. The World Bank reported this week that Gazprom’s methane production has fallen by 13% this year, while exports have fallen by 35%. Gazprom did not explicitly specify the reasons for the unusual flaring at Portovaya, limiting itself to telling the magazine Upstream that these were LNG plant commissioning procedures. Gazprom had previously claimed that the interruption of flow in the Nord Stream gas pipeline was linked to Western sanctions, including problems with Siemens turbines. The German company has denied these allegations. But sanctions could well be at issue in both cases, according to Mark Davis. “Flaring is normal before an LNG plant is commissioned, but at these levels it is likely a reflection of the lack of expertise in Russia for these technical operations. It may technically be the same for Nord Stream’s compressor station. » But Jessica McCarty points out that even if the sanctions make it difficult to access foreign expertise, Russia is not above suspicion. “I worked for several years in Russia, and lies are very common, says Mr.me McCarty. So it’s hard to believe the Russians when they tell the truth. The Portovaya LNG plant was built to supply the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, currently served by Ukrainian pipelines. But its first load of LNG left in September for Greece, according to the magazine Bloomberg Business Week. Methane is a much more powerful GHG than CO2, but it persists for a shorter time in the atmosphere. This means that in 20 years, methane warms the Earth 84 times more than CO2, but in 100 years, only 28 times more. During flaring, methane is burned and partially transformed into CO2. Initially, this was a safety measure – methane being explosive – but oil companies are increasingly using flaring to limit the impact of their GHG emissions. “With effective flaring, you burn 98% to 99% of the methane,” says Davis. When the flaring is not well done, we drop to 60-70%. » Is Russia a pro at flaring? “Probably not,” says Mr. Davis. Methane leaks occur at network compressor stations, but the majority of leaks worldwide are either natural or linked to the exploitation of oil reservoirs, which also contain gas. As CO emissions2 are much larger, the total CO balance2 as GHG is two to three times higher than methane.

Russia Keeping Unsold Gas Underground - The economic impact of Russia’s gas shutoff is dominating European politics, but there are also concerns about the environmental consequences. Officials from the bloc fear that Gazprom PJSC could be burning off fuel at its fields instead of exporting it to Europe. The evidence indicates those concerns are unfounded. Surplus Russian gas is staying below the Siberian permafrost because the country’s fields have the flexibility that allows Gazprom to turn flows up or down as required, according to satellite data, industry analysts and the company’s historical figures. As the rift between the Kremlin and the west deepened after the invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom slashed its total deliveries to key foreign markets by 39% between January and mid-September. The deliberate rupturing by persons unknown of three halted pipelines that used to deliver Russian gas to Germany suggests the reduction in exports could be long lasting. The amount of gas observed being flared -- burned off into the atmosphere -- at Gazprom’s key production area in the Yamal peninsula between Aug. 10 and Sept. 21 averaged 1.18 million cubic meters a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on satellite data analyzed by the Earth Observation Group at the Payne Institute for Public Policy, of the Colorado School of Mines. That’s nearly 28% below flaring levels observed in the area over the same period a year ago, the calculations show. It is above the average from the same timeframe in 2020, which was slightly more than 1 million cubic meters a day. Gazprom’s Yamal flaring “trend has not changed in the past several months,” said Dr. Mikhail Zhizhin, researcher at Payne Institute for Public Policy, who analyzed the data. The observed flaring volumes are just a tiny fraction of Gazprom’s daily production, which averaged 838 million cubic meters from August through to mid-September. Output was down by 473 million cubic meters per day from the same period a year ago as exports to Europe were squeezed, Bloomberg calculations show. The producer’s daily shipments to key markets dropped by 302 million cubic meters compared to August-September 2021. The flaring figures are based on night-time data from satellites measuring high radiant emissions associated with gas flares. The night-time detections are validated against daytime satellite images, as well as geographical and geological meta-data published by Russian oil and gas producers and governmental agencies. Cloudy nights limit detection of flares. Even with the relative stability of flaring at Gazprom’s key gas production areas, Russia is still indisputably the worst offender when it comes to burning off gas into the atmosphere, according to data from the World Bank. The nation flared a total of 25.4 billion cubic meters of gas last year, the data show.

France's Top Oil Refinery Halting -France’s top oil refinery is set to halt because of a workers’ strike over pay, the latest hit to the nation’s fuelmaking capacity from the weeklong industrial action. TotalEnergies SE is halting its refinery in Normandy, according to a union official. The step means almost two-thirds of the nation’s oil processing is now either fully offline or severely impacted by strikes or a recent fire. Exxon Mobil Corp., whose plants are also affected, said it’s limiting fuel supplies. The dispute underscores the tensions that have been bubbling up in the wake of a cost-of-living crisis that stretches far beyond France’s borders. The unions are seeking a bigger share of profits that oil companies made from soaring energy prices. The Normandy shutdown means France’s two biggest refineries, both located near the port of Le Havre, will be out of service due to strikes. Exxon already halted its nearby Gravenchon, as well as a smaller refinery in the south. It means there will almost no refining capacity working in northern France, although the region can also take in cargoes by sea. “I confirm limitation in place, we are working with our independent distributors and wholesale fuels customers to help meet consumer demand for fuel,” Exxon France said in response to questions about whether it was curbing fuel supplies. “Efforts are under way to supply products from unaffected sources.” The process of shutting down Normandy will last a few days, according to Thierry Defresne, secretary of the European workers’ committee at Total, and an official at CGT. Online alerts to local residents also said refinery and petrochemical units at Normandy were being taken offline. Total didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment on the Normandy plant, also known as Gonfreville. The longer the action endures, the greater the potential damage it can do to France as it grapples with a wider surge in energy costs. The nation’s nuclear reactors are set to undergo more work this winter than previously planned, and Russia has cut gas flows to Europe sharply. Both developments have led to a spike in energy prices across the continent. A prolonged strike could also have implications for France’s retail fuel prices, which have fallen sharply from their peaks earlier this year, tracking declines in oil prices and fuel markets elsewhere in the world.

France Wants Traders to Return Millions of Barrels of Diesel - France is looking to replenish its stockpiles of diesel in coming months, another move by a European country to shore up supplies as winter approaches. The French government wants companies to replenish fuel inventories that were released around June as part of a globally co-ordinated stock-draw. The idea is to refill during October and November, a person familiar with the matter said, without specifying a volume. A spokeswoman for France’s Ministry for Energy Transition confirmed the request. France was a significant contributor to oil releases agreed back in March and April by member countries of the International Energy Agency. It pledged 7.88 million barrels of oil products -- all from public stockpiles -- of which the vast majority was diesel-type fuel. The timing of the restock is important because the European Union is preparing to cut off almost all seaborne deliveries of diesel-type fuel -- as well as other refined petroleum products -- early next year from its single biggest external supplier: Russia. It’s also a reminder that strategic fuel releases aren’t necessarily as bearish as the market can sometimes initially perceive -- since they must ultimately be returned. For France, the EU’s upcoming sanctions are significant -- the nation is a major diesel importer and Russia was still its second biggest supplier of seaborne cargoes in August, having surrendered the top position to Saudi Arabia, according to data from Vortexa Ltd, compiled by Bloomberg. Workers’ strikes at multiple French refineries, along with a recent fire at TotalEnergies SE’s Feyzin plant, are also curtailing France’s domestic fuel production, compounding the supply challenge. The company’s trading arm bought at least eight cargoes of ultra low-sulfur diesel and one of 0.1% sulfur gasoil since September 20 in oil trading windows, according to information from brokers compiled by Bloomberg. The ministry spokeswoman said that the refill was normal, adding that the government anticipates -- and replenishes -- its stocks. According to an IEA breakdown from the earlier this year, France said it would contribute more than 6.1 million barrels of diesel-type fuel to the two collective releases that were agreed in March and April. That’s roughly enough to meet the country’s demand for a week. The IEA’s breakdown is incomplete, suggesting the actual figure for diesel-type fuel could be slightly higher. Like France, the Netherlands is also stocking-up on diesel before the winter. It wants to go further than only replenishing what it earlier sold through the coordinated release by IEA member countries. So far, the Dutch petroleum stockpiling agency, COVA, has issued tenders totaling as much as about 590,000 tons of diesel. Germany’s stockpiling agency has also recently issued a tender to import diesel, though the amount is far smaller.

Europe Faces An Exodus Of Energy-Intensive Industries -- Soaring energy costs in Europe are shutting down businesses and threatening a bloc-wide recession. Yet not everyone accepts this fate. Some companies are moving to cheaper locations: the U.S.Steel giant ArcelorMittal earlier this month that it would slash by half production at a steel mill in Germany and a unit at another plant, also in Germany. The company said it had based the decision on high gas prices.Separately, ArcelorMittal more recently warned it expected its steel output for the fourth quarter of the year to be 1.5 million tons lower than it was in the final quarter of 2023, again citing excessive prices along with slumping demand.At the same time, ArcelorMittal earlier this year announced it had plans to expand a Texas operation, describing the state as a “region that offers highly competitive energy and, ultimately, competitive hydrogen.” It is just one of the Europe-based companies that are beginning to see the benefits of growing in the United States, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal’s David Uberti.Uberti cites industry executives as saying that it has not exactly been a difficult decision to make. Basically, according to the report, it comes to a simple dilemma between folding in the face of exorbitant energy bills and moving to a much cheaper energy environment, complete with fresh incentives for certain industries.Chemicals, batteries, green energy—these are all areas set to benefit substantially from the Inflation Reduction Act passed last month. No wonder, then, that companies active in these areas see it as a good idea to either move or expand in the United States.Meanwhile, in Europe, more and more companies are switching into survival mode. That’s because, for a lot of them, the time is coming to renew their electricity supply contracts with utilities. Thanks to energy inflation, these are set to be much higher than the contracts for the current year, with front-year prices reaching over $1,000 in France and Germany.The New York Times’ Liz Alderman wrote in a recent story that energy-intensive industries such as manufacturing and fertilizer production were especially vulnerable precisely because of their higher energy needs. She cited the case of a glass-making major, Arc International, which is also shutting down production units to cope with higher energy costs.The European Commission has promised to help by capping the revenues of electricity generators that use a primary source of energy other than gas, and taxing the “excessive” profits of oil, gas, and coal companies. According to the EC, raking in cash under the current circumstances was wrong, even though profits in themselves were something good. Plans are to collect some 140 billion euros—almost equal to the same sum in dollars—to distribute among households and struggling businesses. Critics, however, note that this will not be enough to save companies from going under. European Aluminium, the industry association, even said energy costs could result in the breakdown of the aluminum industry in Europe. “I think we’ll muddle through two winters,” the chief executive of refractory products maker RHI Magnesita told the Wall Street Journal. However, if gas doesn’t get cheaper, Stefan Borgas said, “companies will start to look elsewhere.” It looks like businesses packing and leaving for cheaper jurisdictions is yet another unintended consequence of the policies favored by European governments, especially in the energy department. It is also one more risk for the survival of the bloc as a competitive industrialized formation in the future. And this risk presents one more conundrum for governments and the administration in Brussels to solve in short order.

Qatar to supply more LNG --World's leading LNG producer Qatargas will supply additional liquefied natural gas amounting to around a million tonne per year (MTPA) to cater Bangladesh's growing gas demand. "Qatargas has confirmed us providing at least 1.0 MTPA of LNG from 2025," Petrobangla chairman Nazmul Ahsan told the FE Sunday, as the country is on the lookout for foreign supplies to make up for domestic gas shortages. Bangladesh sought to import around 2.0 MTPA additional LNG but Qatargas of the gulf-state Qatar confirmed decision to provide around half the additional requirement yet, he said. The company has assured of looking into the matter of supplying 1.0MTPA more LNG in future, said the Petrobangla top brass. He, however, could not say about the buying price of LNG. "We had discussions with Qatargas last week and a deal regarding the additional import of LNG will be inked soon," says Mr Ahsan. Currently, Qatargas supplies LNG to Bangladesh under a long-term deal with Petrobangla. The state corporation also has sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with Qatar's RasGas to buy annually up to 2.5 MTPA lean LNG for over 15 years. During the initial five years of the deal, RasGas will supply annually around 1.8 MTPA of LNG, which will increase up to 2.5 Mtpa in next 10 years, as per the agreement. The purchase price has been set at around 12.65 per cent of the three-month average price of Brent crude oil plus $0.50 constant per million British thermal unit (MMBTU). Should Petrobangla have greater demand during the first five years, it can increase the import volume annually to 2.5 Mtpa, and during the next 10 years, it reserves the option to reduce the amount by 10 per cent per annum. If Bangladesh takes less than the base amount of LNG, in any year, it will have to pay the price on a take-or-pay basis. Under the annual delivery programme Qatargas will supply a total of 40 LNG cargoes to Bangladesh during 2022. It supplied one cargo less, or 39 LNG cargoes, during 2021. The regular size of an LNG cargo is 138,000 cubic metres. Bangladesh is currently struggling to cope with a mounting natural-gas demand due to dwindling natural gas production from local gas-fields and higher price of LNG on the wayward international market. Gas-guzzling power plants, industries, households, compressed natural gas (CNG) filling stations, and commercial consumers are getting less gas compared to their actual demand, consumers allege. Its current buying price of LNG from long-term suppliers ranges around $12 per MMBTU, considering the current Brent crude price of around $90 per barrel.

Egypt’s natural gas exports value increases 13-fold in eight years -The value of Egypt’s natural gas exports has increased 13-fold in the last eight years, a new government report has found. The country exported $8 billion worth of natural and liquefied gas in the 2021-2022 fiscal year, which ended on June 30. This compared with $600 million of exports in 2013-2014, said the report published by the Egyptian Cabinet’s media centre.About 7.2 million tonnes of natural and liquefied gas were exported in the eight-year period, compared with 1.9 million tonnes in 2013-2014. Over the same period, Egypt signed 108 agreements with international companies for the excavation of gas and petrol with at least $22bn in investment value. The growth comes as Egypt is seeking to maximise the benefits of its natural gas wealth. The North African is also seeking to boost much-needed foreign currency reserves through expanding exploration projects, developing liquefaction stations, increasing exports, signing partnerships and rationing domestic electricity consumption. “The Egyptian state is moving forward towards achieving its vision of becoming a regional centre for gas production and exports, in light of its wealth and capabilities that qualify it to achieve this goal,” the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources said on Sunday. Egypt was a natural gas importer between 2015 and 2017, as domestic demand outweighed supply, before the discovery and start of production at the Zohr gasfield. Considered the largest field in the Eastern Mediterranean region, Zohr was estimated in August 2015 to hold 850 bcm of gas, Italian energy company Eni said. The country returned to exporter status in September 2018, the government report said, after achieving self-sufficiency in natural gas.Egypt’s gas production reached a record 69.2 billion cubic metres in 2021-2022, growing by more than 65 per cent from the 2015-2016 period.Production at the Zohr gasfield jumped to 2.7 billion cubic metres per day in 2021-2022 and $741m in investments were made. This brought the total investments in the gasfield to $12bn, the petroleum ministry said.Last year, Egypt ranked 13th in the world in natural gas production and second in Africa, BP said.Egypt also reported a fivefold year-on-year increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in 2021, supported by the resumption of operations at the Damietta plant after nine years.Europe’s gas crisis, caused by supply disruptions triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, has boosted Egypt’s LNG exports this year.In the first six months of 2022, more than 72 per cent of Egypt’s LNG exports went to Europe, compared with 29 per cent in all of last year, Refinitiv LNG flows data shows.To benefit from record energy prices, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said the country would start rationing electricity consumption in an effort to further increase natural gas exports and foreign currency reserves.

German oil imports up 13.5% in January-July period; bill more than doubles - German crude oil import volumes rose 13.5% in the first seven months of 2022 on a year-on-year basis as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, while the bill more than doubled due to higher prices, official data showed on Friday. Russia remained the top supplier, holding a 30.5% share of Germany’s oil imports in the period, monthly statistics from the BAFA foreign trade office showed. The German government is resolved to eliminate imports of oil from Russia by the end of the year under European Union sanctions imposed in the wake of the Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. A week ago, it took control of a major Russian-owned oil refinery at Schwedt in eastern Germany. Some 23.6% of imports in the January-July period came from the British and Norwegian North Sea, while imports from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contributed 16.0%. The rest was shared among other sources, including Kazakhstan and the United States. BAFA releases import data with a two-month delay. The impact of the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to economic sanctions on Russia and counter actions in energy flows, is appearing only gradually. Oil imports in January through July from all origins increased to 51.0 million tonnes, from 44.9 million in the same months of 2021, BAFA said. Germany spent 35.9 billion euros ($35.07 billion) on crude oil imports in the first seven months of 2022, 100.6% more than the comparable year-earlier period. The average price paid per tonne on the border rose 76.4% over the same period a year earlier, standing at 702.95 euros, BAFA said.

Huge expansion of oil pipelines endangering climate, says report - More than 24,000km of new oil pipelines are under development around the world, a distance equivalent to almost twice the Earth’s diameter, a report has revealed. The projects, led by the US, Russia, China and India, are “dramatically at odds with plans to limit global warming to 1.5C or 2C”, the researchers said.The oil pumped through the pipelines would produce at least 5bn tonnes of CO₂ a year if completed, equivalent to the emissions of the US, the world’s second largest polluter. About 40% of the pipelines are already under construction, with the rest in planning. Global carbon emissions must drop by 50% by 2030 to keep on track with internationally agreed targets for limiting global heating. The developers of the 10,000km of pipelines in construction stand to lose up to $75bn (£70bn) if action on the climate crisis prevents the new pipelines being fully used, according to the analysts at Global Energy Monitor (GEM) who produced the report.Russia, which is facing oil and gas boycotts from the west over the war in Ukraine and wants to increase exports to India and China, is developing 2,000km of new pipelines.Regionally, sub-Saharan Africa is leading the world in pipeline development, with 2,000km of oil pipelines already under construction and an additional 4,500km proposed. The projects include the controversial East African crude oil pipeline, which will transport oil drilled from a national park in Uganda to an export terminal on the coast of Tanzania.“For governments endorsing these new pipelines, the report shows an almost deliberate failure to meet climate goals,” said Baird Langenbrunner at GEM. “Despite climate targets threatening to render fossil fuel infrastructure as stranded assets, the world’s biggest consumers of fossil fuels, led by the US and China, are doubling down on oil pipeline expansion.”The oil industry enjoyed record profits in the last year, the report said, and “is using this moment of chaos and crisis to push ahead with massive expansions of oil pipeline networks”.The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, told world leaders gathered in New York on Wednesday: “The fossil fuel industry is killing us, and leaders are out of step with their people, who are crying out for urgent climate action.” The Guardian revealed in May that the world’s biggest fossil fuel firms are planning scores of “carbon bomb” oil and gas projects that would drive the climate past the temperature targets with catastrophic global impacts. In May 2021, the International Energy Agency said new oil and gas fields were incompatible with the world remaining within relatively safe limits of global heating.

Russia At The Forefront Of Development Of Huge Iranian Oil Fields - The ramping up of production from its hugely oil-rich West Karoun cluster of oil fields to at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd) remains one of Iran’s core strategic economic priorities, along with maintaining gas production of at least 1 billion cubic metres per day, and continuing to build out its value-added petrochemicals production to at least 100 million metric tons per year. Two of these West Karoun fields – North Azadegan, and South Azadegan – are now the focus of a concerted US$7 billion fast-track development plan, involving Russian oil firms at the forefront, with some support from China. Both fields are shared fields with neighbouring Iraq, in which it forms the supergiant Majnoon oil field, which means that the provenance of the oil coming from them can be obfuscated, allowing for transport to any destination. At the signing ceremony for the new US$7 billion development program, Iran’s Petroleum Minister, Javad Owji, outlined that the project would be undertaken by a consortium of Iranian banks and exploration and production companies, including the Khatam al-Anbia Construction Headquarters (KAA). According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Khatam is: “The engineering arm of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] that serves to help the IRGC generate income and fund its operations. Khatam al-Anbiya is controlled by the IRGC and is involved in the construction of streets, highways, tunnels, water conveyance projects, agricultural restoration projects, and pipelines.” As part of the IRGC, according to several sources spoken to byOilPrice.com, and to the U.S.’s FDD, the KAA has a specific disbursement line in the country’s annual budget and helps finance Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile development, and terrorist activities. In short, the inclusion of the KAA, and several other companies named in the roster of those that will work on the Azadegan development program, appears to be another clear sign that Iran does not see a new iteration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) being agreed anytime soon, as OilPrice.com has posited for some time.For Russia, though, the oil and gas opportunities in Iran have always been seen as enormous, and rightly so, as, despite its already high levels of oil (and gas) production, Iran can still be seen as an extremely under-developed oil (and gas) power. In crude oil terms alone, the Islamic Republic has an estimated 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, nearly 10 percent of the world’s total and 13 percent of those held by OPEC. The North and South Azadegan oil fields alone have a combined 32 billion barrels of oil in place, according to the very latest figures from Iran’s Petroleum Ministry, ranking as Iran’s largest joint oil field and the 10th largest oil field in the world. The lifting cost of crude oil at both North and South fields is also exceptionally advantageous for developers, rating on a par with Saudi Arabia’s and Iraq’s best fields as the lowest in the world, at just US$1-2 per barrel. The ultimate production aim for the two Azadegan fields, as announced by Owji, is for a combined 570,000 bpd within the next seven years, up from the current 190,000 bpd. “During the 20-year operation period of the Azadegan field, if we consider the base price of oil per barrel to be 80 dollars, it will generate more than US$115 billion in revenue and income for the country and create employment for 24,000 people,” he added.

Oil Prices Are About To Reverse Course - “That would be the road to hell for America,” JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon said last week, referring to a suggestion that all big banks divest from the oil and gas industry. In the same week, Aramco’s chief executive warned that years of underinvestment in new oil production are beginning to bear fruit, which is an undersupplied market. Despite these statements that suggested oil prices should move higher, oil fell for much of the week. Yet it wasn’t dragged down by fundamentals. Oil prices are down because many traders and investors are bracing for a recession. The bad news is that even in a recession, oil prices can go higher, and this is exactly what some of those banks that kept JP Morgan company at last week’s Congress hearing expected. Actually, JP Morgan was one of the bullish forecasters. Last week, the banking major’s analysts wrote in a note that they expected Brent crude to rebound to $101 in the fourth quarter. The analysts cited tighter supply as the reason for their forecast.Goldman Sachs is even more bullish. Three weeks ago, the bank’s analysts said Brent could hit $125 next year despite the oil price cap touted by the G7 as a tool both for keeping the market supplied with Russian oil and for lowering prices. They remain bullish to date. Morgan Stanley is a little more modest in its price expectations, seeking Brent crude at $95 per barrel in the last quarter of the year. It’s worth noting that this is a downward revision of the bank’s price outlook for the fourth quarter, which happened two weeks ago, prompted by growing recession fears. UBS also revised down its price expectations earlier this month, again citing recession concerns as well as the continued flow of Russian oil to Asian importers. That downward revision, however, brought Brent to $110, with analysts noting it could rise to $125 by the end of the third quarter of 2023. The reasons that the Swiss bank gave for the expected rebound are as interesting as they are worrying. According to UBS, oil prices wouldn’t rebound because of a recovering global economy. They would rebound because of the greater demand for oil products for electricity generation and because of tighter overall markets as the U.S. ends its SPR oil sale program.

Oil prices fall on fears of less fuel demand - - Oil prices fell for a second day on Monday on fears of lower fuel demand from an expected global recession sparked by rising worldwide interest rates and as a surging US dollar limits the ability of non-dollar consumers to purchase crude. Brent crude futures for November settlement slipped 54 cents, or 0.63%, to $85.61 a barrel at 0511 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November delivery dropped 48 cents, or 0.61%, to $78.26. Both contracts slumped around 5% on Friday to their lowest since January. The dollar index that measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies climbed to a 20-year high on Monday. A stronger greenback tends to curtail demand for dollar-denominated oil since buyers using other currencies must spend more to buy crude. Central banks in numerous oil-consuming countries, including the United States, the world’s biggest crude user, have raised interest rates to fight surging inflation which has led to concerns the tightening could trigger an economic slowdown. The disruptions in the oil market from the Russia-Ukraine war, with European Union sanctions banning Russian crude set to start in December, have lent some support to prices. The chief executive officer of energy trader Vitol, Russell Hardy, said that fuel shipments are being affected with Russian oil products expected to flow to Asia and the Middle East while supplies from there go to Europe. Additionally, Hardy told an oil conference in Singapore that more than a million barrels per day (bpd) of US crude is expected to go to Europe to fill the gap in Russian supplies. The head of Colombian state energy company Ecopetrol said at the same conference that it has been selling more oil to Europe, replacing Russian supplies, while it sees growing competition for market share in Asia. Attention is turning to what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together called OPEC+, may do when they meet on October 5, after agreeing to cut output modestly at their last meeting. But, since OPEC+ is producing well below its targeted output, any announced cut may not have much impact on supply. Data last week showed OPEC+ missed its target by 3.58 million bpd in August, a bigger shortfall than in July. – Agencies

Brent crude slides below $85 a barrel as dollar surges - Brent crude fell below $85 a barrel Monday, as recession fears weighed and the U.S. dollar surged. Brent futures for November settlement shed 2.1% to trade at $84.32 per barrel around 1:20 p.m. on Wall Street. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2.3% to trade at $76.97 per barrel, a price last seen in early January. The U.S. dollar surged to a high not seen since 2002 Monday, while sterling tumbled to a record low against the currency. On Friday, both Brent and WTI futures fell around 5%. The drop in oil prices is a "macro move led by a stronger dollar," which is triggering fears of a recession, according to Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects. The surge against other currencies means dollar-denominated assets such as oil have grown more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies and "have weighed on futures prices," according to John Morley, associate editorial director for EMEA crude and fuel oil at S&P Global. It comes as central banks around the world — including the U.S. and the U.K. — continue to hike interest rates in an effort to tackle inflation. Investment bank Saxo's strategy team said market sentiment was continuing to deteriorate. "The unrelenting pressure on commodities, including crude oil, continues following Friday's gloomy session which saw accelerated dollar strength and growth pessimism cause a ripple through markets," Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo said. "WTI trades below $80 per barrel while a return to the mid-80's in Brent may soon see OPEC+ action to support prices," he said. As Russia warned it will not supply commodities to nations agreeing to cap prices for its crude and markets anticipate a recession, "the energy sector could be the first to find support once the dollar stabilises," Hansen said. Fears around an economic slowdown continue to mount, with Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, putting the chance that the U.S. will fall into recession at 80%. "If [the Fed] continue[s] the quantitative tightening and move that growth rate and M2 (money supply) into negative territory, it'll be severe," Hanke told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Friday.

Oil Prices Slide $2/bbl; Settle at 9-Month Lows on Dollar Strength (Reuters) - Oil prices fell $2 a barrel on Monday, settling at nine-month lows in choppy trade, pressured by a strengthening dollar as market participants awaited details on new sanctions on Russia. Brent crude futures for November settled down $2.09, or 2.4%, to $84.06 a barrel, plunging below levels reached on January 14. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery dropped by $2.06, or 2.3% to $76.71, the lowest since Jan. 6. Both contracts had risen early in the session after slumping about 5% on Friday. The dollar index hit a two-decade high, pressuring demand for oil which is priced in the U.S. currency. The impact of a strong dollar on oil prices is at its most pronounced in more than a year, Refinitiv Eikon data shows. Disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war also hit the oil market, with European Union sanctions banning Russian crude set to start in December along with a plan by G7 countries for a Russian oil price cap looking set to tighten supply. Interest rate increases by central banks in numerous oil-consuming countries have raised fears of an economic slowdown that could squeeze oil demand. "With more and more central banks being forced to take extraordinary measures no matter the cost to the economy, demand is going to take a hit which could help rebalance the oil market," Attention is turning to what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, will do when they meet on Oct. 5, having agreed at their previous meeting to cut output modestly. However, OPEC+ is producing well below its targeted output, meaning that a further cut may not have much impact on supply. "Odds would appear quite high for a downward adjustment in production by the OPEC + organization," Data last week showed OPEC+ missed its target by 3.58 million barrels per day in August, a bigger shortfall than in July.

Oil Prices Give Up Nearly All 2022 Gains - Oil prices have given up nearly all their 2022 gains, analysts at Standard Chartered highlighted in a new market report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday. “We see the Q3 oil surplus - unanticipated by overly-bullish U.S. investment bank and consultant consensus - as the main reason for the recent fall,” the analysts stated in the report. “Our global oil supply and demand model implies a surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in October, the fourth consecutive month with a surplus of more than 1 mb/d. However, we forecast that the surplus will narrow significantly in November and become a small deficit in December,” the analysts added. “We expect the Q4 surplus to average 0.6 mb/d, one-third of the Q3 surplus. With OECD inventories still well below both the five-year average and the low of the five-year range, we see the reduced Q4 surplus as evidence that there is no fundamental reason for OPEC to rush to make immediate supply cuts,” the Standard Chartered analysts continued. In the report, the analysts also noted that there seems little urgency for OPEC to make cuts in 2023. The analysts did warn, however, that a cut is likely if substantial Iranian volumes return earlier than in Standard Chartered’s model (Q3), Russian output falls by less year on year than the company’s 1.46 mb/d forecast, or global demand grows by less year on year than Standard Chartered’s 1.5 mb/d forecast. “While both supply and demand risks are currently elevated, the argument for significant OPEC cuts in 2023 is weak in our current base case,” the Standard Chartered analysts said in the report. At its latest OPEC+ meeting, which was held on September 5, the group decided to revert to the production level of August 2022 for the month of October 2022, outlining that the upward adjustment of 100,000 barrels per day to the production level was only intended for the month of September 2022. OPEC+’s next meeting is currently scheduled to be held on October 5. Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years in February as Russian forces escalated a conflict with Ukraine. Brent prices, which started the year at under $80 per barrel, climbed to a 2022 high, so far, of $127.98 per barrel on March 8 and closed over $120 per barrel on several occasions from March to June this year. From around the middle of June, however, Brent prices have steadily dropped from over $122 per barrel to under $90 per barrel. At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $89.24 per barrel.

OPEC+ Discusses Cutting Oil Output - OPEC+ has begun discussions about cutting oil output when it meets next week, as a fragile global economy continues to pressure crude prices. The size of the potential supply reduction is still under consideration, said a delegate, asking not to be identified as the talks are private. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet to decide November output levels on Oct. 5. Oil prices have slumped by a fifth since early August on fears over the global economy, trading near $88 a barrel in London on Thursday. The losses threaten the spectacular revenue windfall being enjoyed this year by Saudi Arabia and its partners. The OPEC+ alliance showed its readiness to stabilize markets with a symbolic cut at its last meeting. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has vowed to remain “preemptive and pro-active,” while Nigerian Oil Minister Timipre Sylva said last week the group may be “forced” to make additional cuts if crude prices keep falling. Market observers such as UBS Group AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have said OPEC+ may need to cut at least 500,000 barrels a day to staunch the oil price slide. All but one of 16 traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey predicted the alliance will agree a cutback. “We certainly see a significant chance that the producer group will opt for a substantial cut to try to signal that there is indeed an effective circuit breaker in the market,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC. The cutback could be as much a 1 million barrels a day, she said. At its last meeting on Sept. 5, the group agreed a token reduction of 100,000 barrels a day for October, despite calls from consuming nations to help tame rampant inflation by keeping the taps open. With gasoline prices retreating in the US, some of that external pressure may now be easing. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with US government officials including White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk last week.

WTI Bounces Off 9-Month Low on Hurricane Watch, USD Pullback -- After a two-session sell-off triggered by concerns over global recession, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures advanced early Tuesday amid a sharp pullback in the U.S. Dollar Index as investors positioned ahead of the release of fresh U.S. economic data, including durable goods orders and the consumer confidence index, while Hurricane Ian, now over Cuba, is forecast to reenter the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with its current path expected to disrupt at least some oil operations in offshore Gulf waters. Chevron and British Petroleum said Monday they would move oil workers to safety and halt production at some offshore oil platforms as Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall on the coast of Florida late Wednesday. DTN WeatherOps forecasts that once Ian enters the eastern Gulf, it is forecasted to strengthen further to a peak strength of around 120 knots. Wire services indicated Chevron would close two platforms with combined production capacity of around 120,000 barrels per day (bpd), while BP will close two platforms, each with a capacity of more than 100,000 bpd. In foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar weakened 0.5% against a basket of foreign currencies to trade near 113.430, lending support for the U.S. crude benchmark. West Texas Intermediate November futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange advanced $1.07 barrel (bbl) to $77.79 bbl, reversing higher from Monday's $76.42 nine-month low on the spot continuous chart. Brent, the international crude benchmark listed on the Intercontinental Exchange, gained $1.33 bbl to trade above $85 bbl. NYMEX RBOB October futures added 5.06 cents to $2.4348 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract rallied 8.54 cents to $3.2145 gallon. Internationally, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its economic growth projection for the reminder of the year and for 2023, citing debilitating effects of Russia's war in Ukraine on supply chains and inflation. In "Paying the Price of War" released Monday, OECD downgraded global GDP growth next year to 2.2% from 2.8% seen in the prior outlook, with inflation spreading faster and deeper than previously estimated. Inflationary pressures are now seen broadening beyond food and energy almost everywhere, with businesses throughout the global economy passing through higher costs for energy, transportation, and labor. "A risk to the Outlook is that reductions in energy supplies from Russia to the European Union prove much more disruptive than assumed in the projections," warned OECD in its September report, adding that "taken together, these shocks could reduce growth in the European economies by over 1.25% in 2023, relative to baseline, and raise inflation by over 1.5%."

Oil rises from 9-month low on U.S. Gulf supply cuts, softer dollar - Oil rose Tuesday from a nine-month low a day earlier, supported by supply curbs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian and a slight softening in the U.S. dollar. Analyst expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, may take action to stem the drop in prices by cutting supply also lent support. OPEC+ meets to set policy on Oct. 5. Brent crude ended the day at $86.27 per barrel for a gain of 2.6%. On Monday it fell as low as $83.65, the lowest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended the day 2.33% higher at $78.50 per barrel. Crude soared in early 2022, with Brent coming close to its all-time high of $147 in March after Russia invaded Ukraine, adding to supply concerns. Worries about recession, high interest rates and dollar strength have since weighed. "Oil is currently under the influence of financial forces," "In the meantime, relief rallies, like the one this morning caused by Hurricane Ian in the U.S. Gulf, are viewed as temporary phenomena." A lull in the strength of the U.S. dollar, which earlier hit a 20-year high, provided some support. A strong dollar makes crude more expensive for buyer using other currencies and tends to weigh on risk assets. Supply cuts were back in focus on Tuesday lending some support. BP and Chevron said on Monday they shut production at offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Ian approached the region. The price drop has raised speculation that OPEC+ could intervene. Iraq's oil minister on Monday said the group was monitoring prices and didn't want a sharp increase or a collapse. "Only a production cut by OPEC+ can break the negative momentum in the short run,"

Gasoline Draw Sends Oil Prices Higher - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a build this week for crude oil of 4.150 million barrels, while analysts predicted a build of 333,000 barrels. According to API data, U.S. crude inventories have now gained 23 million barrels so far this year—a build made possible only by releasing 166 million barrels from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.The build comes as the Department of Energy released 4.6 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the week ending September 23, leaving the SPR with 422.6 million barrels.In the week prior, the API reported a build in crude oil inventories of 1.035 million barrels after analysts had predicted a build of 2.321 million barrels.WTI rose on Tuesday prior to the data release. At 12:17 p.m. ET, WTI was trading up $1.15 (+1.50%) on the day at $77.86 per barrel—down nearly $7 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading up $1.49 (+1.77%) on the day at $85.55—a $5 decrease on the week. Crude oil prices continued to rise throughout the afternoon, with producers cutting supply ahead of Hurricane Ian and rumors that OPEC+ could move to cut production targets for November at its next monthly meeting. U.S. crude oil production data for the week ending September 16 stayed at 12.1 million bpd for the fourth week in a row, according to the latest weekly EIA data. The API reported a draw in gasoline inventories this week of 1.048 million barrels for the week ending September 23, compared to the previous week's 3.225 million-barrel build. Distillate stocks saw a build of 1,438,000 barrels for the week, compared to last week's 1.538-million-barrel increase. Cushing inventories were up by 357,000 barrels this week. Last week, the API saw a Cushing increase of 510,000 barrels. Official EIA Cushing inventory for the week ending September 16 was 24.991 million barrels, up from 24.648 million barrels in the prior week. WTI was trading at $78.46 moments after the release, up 2.28% on the day

Oil Prices Set To Spike Again Due To Struggling Global Supply Chain -A short respite from rising oil and gasoline prices is about to end as 2022 comes to a close. The reasons are numerous, but almost all of them relate directly to the supply chain. Mainstream estimates suggest a return to $100 per barrel for the Brent which would inflate gasoline prices back to around $5 per gallon on average in the US. These projections are likely conservative. It should be noted that it's unusual for the mainstream financial media or mainstream analysts to suggest the idea of a renewed energy price spike. With mid-term elections closing in, higher gas prices would put a damper on any chances democrats might have in maintaining a political majority. Stagflationary pressures already top the list of public concerns in the US, far above social issues and geopolitical conflicts. Higher energy costs would be more than unwelcome going into winter. This is the reason why Joe Biden has been so exuberant about releasing oil supplies from the US strategic reserves for the past several months. Biden's plan unleashed 1 million barrels per day into the supply chain and is set to end in October. The reserves are now depleted to the lowest levels since 1984, with gas prices STILL nearly double what they were when Biden entered the White House. It is essentially market manipulation at the expense of US strategic readiness and for the express purpose of political gain. That said, Biden's ability to continue pouring oil onto the markets to keep gas prices down is dwindling, and even if he is able to continue the strategy past October, a red sweep in November would bring challenges and a freeze on reserves anyway. Another factor is the failing attempts at a nuclear deal with Iran and the lifting of sanctions by the west. The free flow of Iranian oil will not be happening anytime soon, leaving western access to a major oil pool off the table. The next issue is the ever changing situation in the Ukraine war. Russia is already receiving the brunt of the blame for global inflation, but this is clearly nonsense when we take into account the fact that inflation hit 40 year highs months before Russian invaded Ukraine and gas prices were rising well in advance of the conflict. The accusation may become true in certain respects, though, as Russia cuts natural gas supplies to Europe and the EU flails around this winter looking for replacement energy sources. Europe's desperate search for oil, coal and gas will siphon supplies away from the global markets leaving all other countries with less. The obvious result will be much higher prices for everyone. Barring a sudden crisis event such as an expansion of the war in Ukraine or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, oil prices are still set to rise as supply chain issues multiply. The Department if Energy plans to replenish strategic reserves by purchasing oil stocks into the future at prices set today. The argument is that this will increase domestic oil production. The problem is that this discounts inflation in production costs for shale oil drillers. Set prices would only work as long as drillers can continue to make a reasonable profit. If they can't, they will simply shut down. By extension, the plan also assumes that drillers will be able to produce excess beyond market demand to sell to the government.

Trafigura Wary of Oil Price Spike --There’s downward pressure on oil prices in the short term, but further out the market is vulnerable to sudden price spikes, according to the world’s biggest commodity trader. Sustained under-investment and very little spare capacity will be tested if demand comes back rapidly, said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group. The loosening of China’s Covid Zero policy could quickly lift consumption, prompting a rush for supplies that the market won’t be able to meet, he said. “We’re potentially moving from a world of commodity cycles to a world of commodity spikes because of the under-investment that has taken place in the last decade,” he said in an interview on the sidelines of the APPEC 2022 conference hosted by S&P Global Commodity Insights in Singapore. Global benchmark Brent crude has fallen around 40% from a high in early March on a combination of monetary tightening, recession fears and a surge in the dollar. Saudi Arabia and others, however, have complained that extreme volatility and a lack of liquidity mean the futures market is increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. The macroecnomic headwinds will keep oil prices under pressure in the short term, according to Rahim. For the moment, that’s outweighing supply risks including the threat of a sharp curtailment in barrels from Russia due to the European Union embargo and the longer-term consequences of under-investment, he said. If, for example, the world needed an additional 2 to 3 million barrels a day of oil supply due to recoveries in China or the US, producers would struggle to find those supplies as there’s very little spare capacity, Rahim said. “My view is that people who were not investing at $100 to $120 a barrel this year aren’t going to be investing when it’s $70 to $90,” he said, adding that the extreme volatility in prices also complicates investment decisions. Other events that could prompt a sudden rebound in demand include the Federal Reserve pausing tightening, a post-winter recovery in Europe and the US summer driving season next year, he said.

Goldman Slashes Oil Price Forecasts --Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sharply lowered its oil price forecasts amid increasing signs of a global economic slowdown, but said that crude would probably climb from current levels because the market is still “critically tight.” “A strong US dollar and falling demand expectations will remain powerful headwinds to prices into year-end,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin and Callum Bruce said in a note on Tuesday. “Yet, the structural bullish supply set-up -- due to the lack of investment, low spare capacity and inventories -- has only grown stronger, inevitably requiring much higher prices.” The Wall Street bank predicts Brent will average $100 a barrel in the last three months of the year. That’s above today’s price of around $85, but below its prior forecast of $125. The benchmark will probably average $108 in 2023, according to the analysts. They previously predicted $125. Oil prices soared to more than $120 a barrel in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. They’ve slumped 30% since early June as central banks turn more hawkish and as coronavirus lockdowns in China crimp demand in the world’s biggest crude importer. Still, oil markets seem to be assuming there will be no real economic growth outside of China next year, according to Goldman. That’s below the consensus among economists and Goldman’s own projection of 1% growth. “It would take an economic hard-landing to justify sustained lower prices,” the Goldman said. The bank says China will likely maintain its Covid Zero strategy until the middle of 2023. “A ‘China reopening’ is not so much bullish oil demand as it is a removal of a significant downside risk to global balances and price expectations,” it said. Goldman recommended that investors buy Brent futures contracts expiring in December 2024, which trade around $71 a barrel. “While we acknowledge that the short-term path to prices is likely to remain volatile, we find the opportunity most compelling to position for higher prices than for lower prices,” the bank said. The Saudi Arabia-led OPEC cartel will probably keep its production near today’s levels for the rest of the year, said Goldman. A “large cut” from the group -- scheduled to meet on Oct. 5 along with its partners including Russia -- would contribute to a rebound in prices, it said.

Oil Gains Ahead of EIA Data as Hurricane Ian Nears Florida - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced in early trade Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate up modestly as traders assess limited disruption to Gulf of Mexico oil production as Hurricane Ian draws closer to a Florida landfall later Wednesday and the U.S. dollar strengthened. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Tuesday afternoon reported approximately 190,358 barrels per day (bpd) or 11% of current oil production and 8.56% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in in preparation for Hurricane Ian. Based on available data, personnel have been evacuated from a total of 12 production platforms, which represents 2.3% of the 521 manned platforms in the Gulf. British Petroleum, meanwhile, said Tuesday the company was working to redeploy offshore personnel to at least two offshore platforms, Na Kika and Thunder Horse, after determining conditions were safe. The company said Hurricane Ian "no longer poses a significant threat to our Gulf of Mexico assets." Early morning gains for the oil complex came despite American Petroleum Institute data released late Tuesday that showed commercial crude and distillate fuel stocks increased last week, offsetting a surprise draw in gasoline inventories. Further details of the report showed commercial crude oil stocks posted a build of 4.150 million barrels (bbl) compared with an estimate for a 300,000-bbl decline. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, tank farm -- the NYMEX delivery point for WTI futures -- increased 357,000 bbl. Gasoline stocks dropped 1.048 million bbl in the week profiled, missing estimates for a build of 900,000 bbl. API reported distillate inventories increased 438,000 bbl in the week ended Sept. 23 versus calls for a 100,000-bbl draw. Underpinning gains in the oil complex Wednesday morning are reports suggesting Russia is lobbying for a 1 million bpd cut in OPEC+ production when officials meet on Oct. 5. With an EU embargo on Russian oil exports set to come into force later this year, and Russia significantly underproducing its quota, Moscow has every incentive to implement a steep production cut. Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the group, has indicated on multiple occasions that the kingdom stands ready to cut output to defend prices despite pleas from Western governments to release more supply into the market. Last month, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by 100,000 bpd in October, reversing a 100,000-bpd increase agreed upon for September. Near 7:45 a.m. EDT, WTI November futures added $0.22 to trade near $78.72 bbl, reversing higher from Monday's $76.42 nine-month low on the spot continuous chart. Brent, the international crude benchmark listed on ICE, traded little changed near $86.32 bbl. NYMEX RBOB October futures added 0.37 cents to $2.4977 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract rallied 3.84 cents to $3.2983 gallon.

WTI Extends Gains After Surprise Crude Draw -- Oil prices are up this morning, with WTI back at $80, as Hurricane Ian shuts in Gulf of Mexico production. That was enough to overcome the strong dollar headwind. Another factor putting upward pressure on prices is the upcoming meeting of OPEC+ on Oct. 5. Russia is reported to be pushing for an output cut of around 1 million barrels a day. DOE:

• Crude -215k (API +4.2mm)
• Cushing +692k
• Gasoline -2.42mm - biggest draw since August
• Distillates -2.89mm - biggest draw since April

Following API's reported 4.2mm barrel build, the official data showed a complete opposite with a small 215k draw and while Cushing stocks rose for the second week, products also saw major draws (perhaps driven by pre-emptive shifts before Hurricane Ian)... Source: Bloomberg. Continued US emergency oil releases (4.6mm last week) brought Strategic Petroleum Reserve supplies down to 422.6 million barrels, according to preliminary Energy Department data. That means the stockpile could dip below commercial inventories for the first time since it was created in the 1980s. US Crude production slipped a little last week, as rig counts rebounded... WTI was hovering just below $80 ahead of the official data and spiked above $81 after... Finally, we note that regular gas prices at the pump are up 8 days in a row... Is that still the Putin Price Hike? Or are we back to blaming the gas station owners for gouging?

Oil prices rise on surprise drop in U.S. crude, fuel stocks- Oil prices rose on Wednesday following unexpected drawdowns in U.S. crude and fuel stocks, outweighing downward pressure from the continued strength in the U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures were up $1.69, or 2%, at $87.96 per barrel by 10:41 a.m. EST (1441 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $2.14, or 2.7%, to $80.64 a barrel. U.S. crude stocks fell by 215,000 barrels in the most recent week, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined by 2.4 million and 2.9 million barrels respectively, as refining activity declined following several outages. In the Gulf of Mexico, about 190,000 barrels per day of oil production, or 11% of the Gulf's total, was shut-in due to Hurricane Ian, according to U.S. government figures. Wholesale gasoline prices have been on the rise in the United States as well after refiners in the Midwest and West Coast shut. Global equities pulled off two-year lows on Wednesday, after the Bank of England said it would step into the bond market to stem a damaging rise in borrowing costs, thereby dampening investor fears of contagion across the financial system. The dollar hit a fresh two-decade peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as rising global interest rates fed recession concerns. A strong dollar reduces demand for oil by making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast on Tuesday, due to expectations of weaker demand and a stronger U.S. dollar but said global supply disappointments only reinforced its long-term bullish outlook. Producer group OPEC+ meets on Oct. 5, where Russia is likely to propose an output cut of around 1 million barrels per day, a source familiar with Russian thinking said on Tuesday.

Oil prices jump after U.S. crude, fuel stocks drop, dollar weakens (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday for a second day, rebounding from recent losses as the U.S. dollar eased off recent gains and U.S. fuel inventory figures showed larger-than-expected drawdowns and a rebound in consumer demand. Brent crude futures settled up $3.05, or 3.5%, at $89.32 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended up $3.65, or 4.7%, to $82.15 a barrel. Analysts said oil prices, down more than 22% during the third quarter, may be bottoming out as Chinese demand shows signs of rebounding and the U.S. sales of strategic reserves come to a close. U.S. inventory figures showed consumer demand rebounded, though refining product supplied remained 3% lower over the last four weeks than the year-ago period. U.S. crude stocks fell by 215,000 barrels in the most recent week, while gasoline inventories declined by 2.4 million barrels and distillate inventories by 2.9 million barrels, as refining activity declined following several outages. Refining activity dipped, but refiners are still running at 90.6% of overall capacity in the United States, the highest for this time of year since 2014, on both domestic and export demand. The dollar hit a fresh two-decade peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday before pulling back. A strong dollar reduces demand for oil by making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. In early afternoon U.S. hours, the dollar index was down 0.9%. "These are all dollar-driven rallies across the board," . "All raw material dominated currencies are up - crude is not just moving in isolation here." Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut its 2023 oil price forecast on Tuesday, due to expectations of weaker demand and a stronger U.S. dollar but said global supply disappointments only reinforced its long-term bullish outlook. Global equities pulled off two-year lows on Wednesday, after the Bank of England said it would step into the bond market to stem a damaging rise in borrowing costs, dampening investor fears of contagion across the financial system.

Oil Gains on EU-Russia Gas Standoff, NATO Warnings - New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced mid-morning trade Thursday as investors assessed new geopolitical risks steaming from a suspected sabotage attack on Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that have already triggered a military warning from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to all parties responsible for the attack. NATO officially blamed sabotage for the series of blasts that severely damaged Nord Stream pipelines, leading to the leaks on three separate locations. Sudden and unexplained leaks from the undersea Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany appear "not a coincidence" the European Union said on Thursday, a statement that adds weight to fears of sabotage. While no evidence has been provided, speculations are swirling that Russia itself might be behind the attack on this critical infrastructure. On Wednesday, Kremlin's spokesperson Dimitry Peskov dismissed those suggestions as "quite predictable and also predictably stupid." The attack adds news risks to the EU-Russia gas standoff that escalated earlier this month when Gazprom halted gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1, blaming the debilitating impact of the Western sanctions. Nord Stream 1 is the single biggest pipeline for gas from Russia to Europe and has the capacity to deliver 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year. Continued supplies through the pipeline have been seen as crucial to prevent a deepening of the energy crisis. Further lending support to the oil complex, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday total refined product supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of demand, jumped 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) last week to 20.77 million bpd, the third-highest weekly implied demand rate during the third quarter, according to EIA data. U.S. demand for distillate fuels, which correlates closely with economic activity, unexpectedly spiked 768,000 bpd to 4.178 million bpd -- the highest weekly consumption rate since early July. For gasoline, demand rose 504,000 bpd from the previous week to 8.825 million bpd, and gasoline stocks were drawn down by a hefty 2.4 million barrels (bbl) to 212.2 million bbl, a nearly 11-month low. Near 9:30 a.m. EDT, November WTI futures slipped $0.30 to $81.83 per bbl, while ICE November Brent futures declined $0.20 to $89.14 per bbl ahead of expiration Friday afternoon, with the December contract expanding its discount to November delivery to $1.42 per bbl. NYMEX October RBOB futures fell 4.16 cents to $2.5363 per gallon, with the November contract traded near $2.5350 per gallon. The October ULSD contract declined 3.95 cents to $3.4116 per gallon, widening its premium to the November contract to 11.46 cents. October products futures also expire Friday afternoon.

Oil slips after hitting $90/bbl as OPEC+ considers output cut -Oil prices dropped after touching the $90 per barrel mark on Thursday as traders awaited clarity on potential OPEC+ cuts next week and as the dollar eased off 20-year highs. Brent crude futures settled at $88.49 per barrel for a loss of 0.9%, after earlier rising as high as $90.12. U.S. crude futures for November ended the day 1.1% lower at $81.23 per barrel. Leading members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, have begun discussions about an oil output cut at their next meeting on Oct. 5, three sources told Reuters. One OPEC source told Reuters a cut was "likely", while two other OPEC+ sources said key members had spoken about the topic. Reuters reported this week that Russia is likely to propose that OPEC+ reduce oil output by about 1 million barrels per day(bpd). "Seesaw trade may be common over the next week, unless we get more clarity from OPEC+ sources on the likely size of any adjustment and what it means for previous missed quotas," The market also eased as the threat of Hurricane Ian receded with U.S. oil production expected to return in coming days after about 158,000 bpd was shut in the Gulf of Mexico as of Wednesday, according to federal data. Crude benchmarks have rebounded from nine-month lows earlier this week, buoyed by a dip in the U.S. dollar index and a larger than expected U.S. fuel inventory drawdown. The dollar index dropped again on Thursday, easing off 20-year highs, indicating some more risk appetite from investors. "Inflation fears and the Feds determination to deal with them had risk assets on the ropes for much of the session, but the dollar slide to negative territory has put a bid in crude oil," Further support for oil prices could come from the United States announcing new sanctions against entities that facilitated Iranian oil sales. "I think traders have almost given up on a nuclear deal being agreed and this announcement from the U.S. appears to be a make or break move," In China, the world's biggest crude oil importer, travel during the forthcoming week-long national holiday is set to hit its lowest level in years as Beijing's zero-COVID rules keep people at home while economic woes curb spending.

Oil Futures Head for Quarterly Loss Amid Global Slowdown -- Oil futures moved mixed in early trade on the last session in September and the third quarter, although all petroleum contracts are on track for their first quarterly losses since 2020 amid concerns over rapidly deteriorating global demand growth hammered by high inflation and aggressive rate hikes from several central banks. Manufacturing data out of China, released overnight, revealed the world's second largest economy struggled to rebound at the end of the third quarter, with factory activity contracting at a sharper pace in September than in the prior two months. China's Caixin manufacturing index fell 1.4 points from late August to 48.1, down for the second consecutive month and well below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. With central banks around the world rushing to restrict the flow of credit and raise interest rates, the demand for Chinese manufacturing goods is unlikely to improve markedly in the fourth quarter. September's data suggest the European economy has already fallen into recession, while the Federal Reserve is unlikely to manage a soft landing for the U.S. economy as it steps up its fight against broadening inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester reiterated on Thursday that the central bank, which has raised the benchmark federal funds rate 3% this year, must continue aggressively in lifting rates even if that sends the economy into a downturn. The same sentiment has been echoed in comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard who believes the market has finally gotten the message of the central bank's resolve to fight inflation. Near 8 a.m. EDT, November West Texas Intermediate futures slipped $0.29 to $80.92 barrel (bbl). ICE November Brent futures traded little changed near $88.50 bbl ahead of expiration Friday afternoon, with the December contract expanding its discount to November delivery to $1.67 bbl. NYMEX October RBOB futures fell 3.26 cents to $2.4750 gallon, with the November contract trading near $2.3696 gallon. The October ULSD contract declined 7.11 cents to $3.3435 gallon, widening its premium to the November contract to 10.93 cents. October products futures also expire Friday afternoon.

Oil Falls but Notches Weekly Gain as OPEC+ Considers Output Cut (Reuters) -Oil prices dipped on Friday in choppy trading but notched their first weekly gain in five on Friday, underpinned by the possibility that OPEC+ will agree to cut crude output when it meets on Oct. 5. Brent crude futures for November, which expire on Friday, fell 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $87.96 a barrel. The more active December contract was down $2.07 at $85.11. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.74, or 2.1%, to $79.49. Both contracts rose by more than $1 during the session but dropped on news that OPEC's oil output rose in September to its highest since 2020, surpassing a pledged hike for the month, according to a Reuters survey on Friday. "There is definitely some profit taking from the gains we saw earlier in the week. $80 is sort of the pivot point these days," "Increased worries about financial stability in the UK ... are undermining the demand outlook once again," Brent and WTI gained 2% and 1% on a weekly basis, marking the first weekly rise since August and following nine-month lows hit this week. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to September 27, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. While the dollar has dropped from 20-year highs earlier in the week, it gained through the day. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, reducing demand for the commodity. The market has seen support from the prospect of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies considering cutting production quotas by between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day (bpd) at their Oct. 5 meeting. "A deteriorating crude demand outlook won't allow oil to rally until energy traders are confident that OPEC+ will slash output," Analysts expect a production cut because demand fears linked to a possible global economic slowdown and rising interest rates have weighed on crude prices. U.S. energy firms this week added two oil rigs for a third week in a row, but growth in the third quarter slowed due to recession fears and nagging supply shortages. Top White House officials are also set to meet with oil executives on Friday to discuss Hurricane Ian and low gasoline inventories as President Joe Biden warns the industry not to price-gouge consumers, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Brent and WTI prices finished the third quarter with chunky 23% and 25% declines respectively.

Oil futures end lower for the session, month and quarter - Oil futures declined Friday, contributing to their losses for the month and quarter as concerns over a potential recession raised expectations for a slowdown in demand. Still, oil supply will get tighter in the winter and "now that most of the crude demand destruction has been priced in, prices should stabilize going into the year-end," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. November WTI crude fell $1.74, or 2.1%, to settle at $79.49 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with front-month prices still up nearly 1% for the week. For the month, prices lost 11%, and ended the quarter down almost 25%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Saudi Oil Driller IPO Covered Within Hours - Arabian Drilling Co., a Saudi Arabian oilfield-services company partly owned by Schlumberger NV, took only hours to garner enough investor orders to fully cover an initial public offering that could raise as much as 2.67 billion riyals ($710 million). Books are covered across the price range, according to a message sent to investors and seen by Bloomberg News. Arabian Drilling set the range at 90 riyals to 100 riyals per share, valuing the company at as much as 8.9 billion riyals, according to a statement on Wednesday. Investors snapping up all shares on offer shows demand for Saudi IPOs remains strong even after its stocks became the first in the Gulf to fall into a bear market this week, dragged lower by the recent plunge in oil prices. Arabian Drilling’s IPO is the largest in the kingdom since pharmacy chain Nahdi Medical Co. raised $1.4 billion, and joins a steady flow of Gulf companies that are tapping markets amid high oil prices. There have already been 22 listings in Saudi Arabia this year, more than any other full-year total, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investor demand for listings in the Gulf has been strong, with the region emerging as a bright spot in a quiet IPO market globally. Still, the outlook is darkening with oil falling almost 40% since June on fears that a global economic slowdown caused by central banks’ aggressive policy tightening will hurt energy consumption. Schlumberger and Industrialization & Energy Services Co., majority controlled by the Saudi wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, will sell 17.7 million shares in the IPO. Arabian Drilling will sell 9 million shares, using the proceeds to scale up its onshore and offshore fleet and expand operations in the Gulf Cooperation Council region. It counts Saudi oil giant Aramco as one of its main customers, and is looking to capitalize on the state energy producer’s plans to boost oil and gas production. The bookbuilding period for institutional investors will run to Oct. 5, with the final offer price announced on Oct. 11.

Taliban Sign Deal With Russia to Buy Cheap Oil and Gas - Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban have signed an agreement with Russia to import fuel and wheat at a discount as the country struggles to feed its population and seeks to boost regional trade a year after regaining power. Items like gasoline, diesel, gas and wheat will be purchased in Russian rubles and at a “special discount,” said Abdul Salam Jawad Akhundzada, a spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, by phone from Kabul on Wednesday. Preparations are underway to start importing the products “within days or weeks,” he said. The deal, the largest such agreement the Taliban has signed since they returned to power, includes one million tons each of petrol and diesel, half a million tons of liquefied petroleum gas, and two million tons of wheat to be supplied annually until an unspecified date, Akhundzada said. More longer-term deals with Moscow are expected in the future, he added. The agreement follows a visit to Russia last month by Afghanistan’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Nooruddin Azizi. In June, the Taliban struck a deal with Iran to purchase 350,000 tons of petroleum products to ease fuel prices. No country has formally recognized the Taliban government however, Russia is one of a few to have kept its embassy in Kabul open. Moscow has also approached several Asian countries to discuss possible long-term oil contracts at steep discounts as US officials continue to try and push a plan that would cap the price of the country’s oil, a Western official told Bloomberg last month. Afghanistan consumes 1.3 million tons of fuel annually, imported mostly from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, according to the ministry.

Syria Demands Compensation For Oil Losses In UN Speech - In a rare plea before the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Syria's top diplomat demanded compensation for oil and gas stolen by the United States, as well as its monumental energy losses over the course of the 11-year long war."The war against Syria, ultimately, was an attempt by the West to maintain control over the world," Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad told the assembly on Monday, demanding further that the continuing US military occupation in the oil and gas rich northeast "should end immediately, without conditions."He informed UN leaders that "direct and indirect" oil and gas sector losses over the course of the conflict have reached $107 billion, stressing further that Damascus is demanding compensation."Fighting terrorism does not happen through an illegitimate international coalition that violates Syria’s sovereignty and destroys towns and villages," Mekdad asserted. He said that any 'counterterror' campaign or foreign presence on sovereign Syrian soil must be done in direct coordination with President Bashar al-Assad. While during the Trump administration years the hundreds of American troops stationed in eastern parts of Syria were there to "secure the oil" - as Trump had often repeated, the Biden administration has chosen to stress a continued counter-terrorism mission. And yet, US forces and their Kurdish SDF proxies continue to occupy the largest and most important oil and gas fields in the region. Russia too has long called for the immediate exit of American forces, and has of late appeared to step up its air campaign against anti-government jihadist elements in Idlib, which has put Turkey on edge. Pro-Iranian militias have reportedly launched sporadic attacks on US bases, meanwhile.Ironically, just last week in President Joe Biden's address to the UNGA, he declared "you cannot seize another country’s territory by force. The only country doing that is Russia."

US troops kill 15-year-old girl in Iraq - The Iraqi Security Media Cell promised an investigation into the murder, which it initially described as a “random shooting.” However a statement given by Iraq’s security forces, quoted by The Cradle, confirmed the culpability of the US military: “The killing of Zainab Essam Majed coincided with the presence of training operations for the American forces … the bullet that was taken out of the girl’s head confirms that it is from one of the weapons used by the American forces in the embassy and airport.” The shooting has provoked widespread outrage, with locals demanding to know why American soldiers were holding live-fire exercises near residential areas. On September 22, Iraqi legislator Ahmed Taha al-Rubaie, from the Basra province, called upon the Baghdad government to summon the American ambassador and present her with a formal note of protest, along with taking legal measures to hold those responsible for the murder accountable. In a post on Twitter, Rubaie wrote, “Even though two days have passed since the teenage girl was killed by a bullet fired during US military exercises near the Victoria base northwest of Baghdad, the US Embassy has not bothered to issue any official apology for the unjust incident.” He went on, “The death, which occurred as a result of the use of live rounds during military drills near residential neighborhoods, exhibits an outrageous disregard for the Iraqi blood and a blatant disrespect for the country's sovereignty.”

Women in Iran Take Center Stage in Antigovernment Protests - Women have been casting off their legally required head scarves, forming the primary image of the protests. But grievances against a repressive regime go far beyond the hijab. For Yasi, the news felt too close to ignore: A young woman, Mahsa Amini, had died in the custody of Iran’s morality police, days after being arrested for failing to cover her hair modestly enough.When protests broke out after Ms. Amini’s death, 20-year-old Yasi — the first woman in her immediate family to reject the hijab — ran into the streets, waving the thin shawl she usually wears over her blond hair in public, in a grudging concession to the law of the land.“I keep thinking Mahsa could be me; it could be my friends, my cousins,” she said in an interview from Tehran, where protests have since raged every night outside her family’s apartment complex. “You don’t know what they will do to you.”The nationwide protests challenging Iran’s authoritarian leadership, now in their 10th day, have fed on a range of grievances: a collapsing economy, brazen corruption, suffocating repression and social restrictions handed down by a handful of elderly clerics. On Monday, they showed no sign of abating, and neither did the harsh government effort to suppress them despite international condemnation.But their catalyst was the death of Ms. Amini, 22, on Sept. 16 and its connection to the hijab law, the most visible manifestation of a theocracy that makes women second to men in politics, in parenting, in the office and at home.Tossing head scarves into bonfires, dancing bareheaded before security agents, young women have been at the forefront of these demonstrations, supplying the defining images of defiance.Iranian women had participated in protests against the clerical establishment before, but never before had they been spark, leaders and foot soldiers all at once. More than two dozen have been arrested so far, and several female protesters have been killed.It was a female journalist, Niloufar Hamedi of Shargh, an Iranian daily, who first brought Ms. Amini’s story to light. Ms. Hamedi was arrested last week and is being held in solitary confinement at Evin prison, according to her colleagues. Two years after ultraconservative Muslim clerics seized power in the 1979 revolution, they required women in government offices to wear the head scarf, then all women and girls over age 9, justifying it with Shariah law. The hijab, they proclaimed, would protect female chastity and honor. But it has also become a weak point for the regime, symbolizing social restrictions that men and women alike chafe at — and flout behind closed doors.

Tehran Summons Western Ambassadors For "Meddling" As Protest Death Toll Climbs To Over 40 - Iran’s foreign ministry has blamed Western "meddling" for the outbreak and growth of raging protests inside the country, which have now reached a full week, and have left at least 35 dead, according to the government's official death toll. From Friday to Saturday this figure had more than doubled, with Tehran officials initially citing 17 dead, and then revising it upwards. This includes five security officers, according to state media, which has painted the "anti-hijab" demonstrations as violent. By Saturday evening, state media counted 41 among the deceased. On Sunday Iran summoned the ambassadors of the UK and Norway to condemn their governments for allegedly fueling the unrest, as reported in The Hill: The director-general of Western Europe within Iran’s foreign ministry called out Norway’s Parliament speaker for allegedly "prejudicing and unrealistic comments" about recent protests in Iran, according to Iran’s official news agency, IRNA. The U.K. ambassador, meanwhile, was chastised for a London-based, Persian-language "hosting of the media" that Iran believes has produced "put provocation and invitation to turbulence and expansion of riots in Iran on top of their agenda," according to a second report from IRNA. The protests across dozens of cities began following the death in policy custody of 22-year old Mahsa Amini. She had been reportedly detained for improper attire, or failing to properly wear an Islamic head-covering, after which she turned up dead.Her supporters say she was beaten to death, while Iranian authorities have said she collapsed from a heart-related incident. The US has since sanctioned Iran's notorious 'morality police' and the heads of multiple security agences.The UN has meanwhile condemned the harsh police crackdown, which a statement has said includes sending paramilitary forces and at times live ammunition interspersed with riot control measures. But it's clear that in many instances the demonstrators are "fighting back"...

‘Huge problem’: Iranian drones pose new threat to Ukraine - It was a little over a week ago that Iranian drones first began appearing in the skies over Ukraine. Andriana Arekhta, a junior sergeant with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said the drones flew from Crimea to attack her special forces unit fighting near the southern city of Kherson. The drones evaded the soldiers’ defenses and dropped bombs on their position, destroying two tanks with their crews inside. “It’s very difficult to see these drones on radars,” said Arekhta, who traveled to Washington, D.C., last week as part of a delegation of female Ukrainian soldiers. “It’s a huge problem.” Over the past week, Russia has deployed Shahed and Mohajer combat drones imported from Iran in greater numbers across Ukraine, with devastating results. Some hit combat positions, smashing tanks and armored vehicles, while others struck civilian infrastructure, including in the port city of Odesa. In his nightly address on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country’s anti-aircraft forces had shot down more than a dozen drones in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and Odesa. The Ukrainian Air Force identified them as Shahed-136 kamikaze drones and Mohajer-6 drones that carry munitions and can also be used for reconnaissance. But in interviews, a Ukrainian activist and three soldiers said the Iranian drones pose a major threat to both fighters and civilians. Their arrival on the battlefield makes the need for the West to send additional modern weaponry even more urgent, as Kyiv tries to seize on recent gains to retake as much territory as possible before winter sets in, they said. The Iranian drones appear to be a potential game-changer for the Russians. They are relatively small and fly at low altitude, evading Ukrainian radars. Arekhta said she could shoot them down with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, but only during the day because the U.S.-provided weapons do not come with a night-vision system.

Results Show Huge Majorities In Favor Of Joining Russia As Ukraine Annexation Polls Close: State Media - Annexation polls have closed Tuesday in four occupied regions of Ukraine, after five days of voting on whether or not citizens in these territories wish to join the Russian Federation. Marking the occasion, President Vladimir Putin said in a televised meeting with officials: "Saving people in the territories where this referendum is taking place... is the focus of the attention of our entire society and of the entire country." Russia's state RT has announced partial results late in the evening (local time) showing a huge majority in both the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) supporting uniting with the Russian Federation. "In DPR, more than 98% of voters supported the idea to join Russia, according to early official figures. The referendum in LPR yielded a similar result, with more than 97% of voters supporting the potential reunification. In Lugansk, all the ballots have been already counted, according to local authorities, while Donetsk, so far, has processed just over a half of votes." And on initial results from Zaporizhzhia, Russian's English language broadcaster reports, "Residents of the Zaporozhye region in Ukraine, which is partially controlled by Moscow, have elected to break away from the country and join the Russian Federation. More than 93% of voters have supported the idea to split from Ukraine and join Russia, official figures show after all the ballots have been counted." The Ukrainian government and its Western backers have denounced the referendums as a "sham" - given it's happening in the middle of a war and occupation. Yet other observers have noted these are all historically Russian-speaking regions, and that even without the Russian invasion a strong pro-Moscow showing would be likely. The votes were held starting late last week through the weekend in self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - despite Russian forces not currently being in control of every part of these territorial regions. Not only has Kyiv vowed not to recognize any declared "independence" of these oblasts, it has even threatened lengthy prison sentences for any Ukrainian who organizes referenda or individuals who participate in the voting. Meanwhile Russia's RIA said of voting across the occupied territories: First partial voting results from Russian-occupied parts of four regions of Ukraine show majorities of at least 96% in favor of becoming part of Russia.

8th EU Sanctions, Oil Price Cap Will "Make Kremlin Pay" For 'Sham' Referendums: Von Der Leyen -European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday touted that newly prepared EU sanctions will "make the Kremlin pay" for conducting its "sham" referendums in occupied Ukraine. Russian media the evening prior declared a sweep in favor of four regions joining the Russian Federation - including Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. President Putin is expected to announce their integration into Russia in a Friday speech."We do not accept the sham referenda and any kind of annexation in Ukraine, and we are determined to make the Kremlin pay for this further escalation," von der Leyen told a scheduled press briefing in Brussels.She announced a proposed eighth round of sanctions in a package that includes an expanded ban on Russian products and key technology, particularly out of Russia's aviation, electronics, and chemical products sectors. The new package when implemented is "expected to deprive Moscow of an additional 7 billion euros ($6.7 billion) in revenues," according to the EC chief's announcement.The new package also includes a range of targeted sanctions on Russian ministry and military officials, including officials responsible for organizing the Ukraine referendums. Additionally, EU nationals will be barred from having high-paying roles in Russian state-owned companies.Perhaps more important, and controversial given the fresh sanctions would need unanimous approval by the EU’s 27 member states before implementation, is the oil price cap. Currently, partial prohibitions targeting Russian crude will kick in on December 5th. Though it doesn't extend directly to shipping, a June sanctions package saw EU countries agree to block European companies from providing insurance and financial services for Russia's seaborne oil. In the Wednesday announcement, von der Leyen previewed, "We are laying the legal basis for this oil price cap." This as Bloomberg is confirming this would include "a price cap for Russian oil sold to third countries." But therein lies the biggest hurdle towards its passage as member states like Hungary have long warned that dramatic changes in its predictable energy supply levels received from Gazprom would put Hungary's entire economy at risk.

Medvedev Says US, NATO Won't Intervene If Russia Uses Nuke - Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday said he doesn’t believe the US and NATO would intervene if Russia launched a nuclear strike in Ukraine over fears of a "nuclear apocalypse" despite recent comments from US officials. Medvedev, a former Russian president, also reiterated that Moscow believes it has the right to use nuclear weapons if Russia’s existence is threatened. "Let’s imagine that Russia is forced to use its most formidable weapons against the Ukrainian regime, which has committed a large-scale act of aggression that is endangering the very existence of our state. I believe that NATO will not directly interfere in the conflict even in this scenario," Medvedev wrote on Telegram. Via AP The former Russian president said that the supplying of weapons to Ukraine was just a "business" for the Western powers and that their security is much more important than "the fate of a dying Ukraine." He said US and European "demagogues are not going to die in a nuclear apocalypse. That is why they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict." Addressing the recent warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials, Medvedev said Moscow’s position on nuclear weapons is "not a bluff." Putin warned last week that Russia could use nuclear weapons to defend its "territorial integrity," and Russian territory is set to expand into Ukraine. It's understandable that a few recent developments again made people worry again about nuclear use. I don't have a crystal ball, but there are a few things to consider. And they seem to suggest that we are still at least a few steps away from that point.

Poland distributes iodine pills as fears grow over Ukraine nuclear plant (Reuters) - Poland, concerned about fighting around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, has distributed iodine tablets to regional fire departments to give to people in the event of radioactive exposure, a deputy minister said on Thursday.Iodine is considered a way of protecting the body against conditions such as thyroid cancer in case of radioactive exposure. Shelling at the site of Zaporizhzhia - Europe's biggest nuclear power plant - has damaged buildings close to its six reactors and cut power cables, risking a nuclear catastrophe that would affect neighbouring countries. Russia and Ukraine blame each other for the shelling around the plant."After the media reports about battles near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant we decided... ahead of time to take protective action to distribute iodine," deputy interior minister Blazej Pobozy told private broadcaster Radio Zet. "I would like to reassure all citizens that these are routine, pre-emptive actions that are to protect us in the event of a situation which... I hope will not happen," he added.

Russia captures French Caesar self-propelled guns --Russian troops have already captured two Caesar self-propelled guns recently delivered from France in Ukraine, said the French lawyer and politician Régis de Castelnau. The Caesar self-propelled gun is a 155 mm artillery mount made in France and is designed to destroy artillery batteries, fortifications and other enemy equipment. The gun has been in service with the French army since 2007. The range of the Caesar self-propelled guns is up to 42 kilometres, and the rate of fire is six rounds per minute. Castelnau said the artillery mounts are in excellent condition and have already been sent to Uralvagonzavod, where Russian gunsmiths are studying them. “Another achievement of Macron: Russians have French weapons, not Ukrainians,” the politician is indignant on social networks. De Castelnau said that the French paid for the supply of heavy equipment to the Ukrainian armed formations. French taxes, it turns out, fund Russian research into the military industry, making the Russian Armed Forces even stronger. The Russian concern Uralvagonzavod actually confirmed the receipt of the guns by a reply post in the comments on the TG channel of the French politician Régis Castelnau. Uralvagonzavod wrote, “Good afternoon, Mr Regis. We ask you to convey our gratitude to President Macron for the donated self-propelled guns. Technique is the same, of course. Not like our Msta-S. But nevertheless, it is useful in the economy. Send more – we’ll figure it out.”

Putin’s Military Draft Is Unpopular. So What? - Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nationwide mobilization has dramatically raised the stakes — not just for the war in Ukraine, but for his legitimacy at home. Putin is wagering that the addition of300,000 or more reservists will turn the tide for Russia’s attempted neo-imperial conquest of Ukraine.The risk, though, is that the Kremlin’s heavy-handed mobilization — really, a forced conscription — will undermine Russian domestic support for the war effort, and potentially topple the Putinist regime itself. Already, stories and videos are emerging of young men fleeing Russia by air, rail, and road, inflicting gruesome injuries upon themselves in hopes of disqualification,protesting the mobilization, or tearfully acceding to an uncertain fate on the front lines.And while it is still too soon to say whether Putin’s gamble will ultimately help him or hurt him politically, he’s not the first Russian autocrat to attempt a mass mobilization to change the tide in a war of uncertain value to ordinary Russians. In the 20th century, there were two that sparked similar unrest — one in 1904 for the Russo-Japanese war, and another in 1914 during World War I.Both those mobilizations eventually contributed to popular uprisings that culminated in the Russian Revolution of 1917. But the history of that unrest holds important lessons on the impact of war mobilization on the stability of Russia’s autocratic institutions and the risks facing Putin.The Russian conscription system originally devised by Peter the Great demanded settlements across Russia to provide a certain quota of recruits — it was up to local village councils to determine which unfortunate boys would fulfill the community’s obligations. “Conscription was a species of death,”Russian military historians claim. “The recruit was torn away from his native village, severed from the company of his family and his friends, and was well aware that the chances were that he would never return to them.” The mobilization of 2022 is being administrated by a similar regional-quota system. Then as now, the poor Russian recruit faces not just the enemy’s deadly barrages, but also epidemic diseases, shortages of food and supplies, as well as brutal (and often deadly) hazing by superior officers.Indeed, “it became the custom for village women to lament the departure of the recruits with the singing of funeral dirges.” And so too today.Social media has beenflooded with videos from across Russia of tear- and vodka-soaked sendoffs,recruits passed-out on the ground, heated confrontations with draft authorities, demoralized “alco-battalions”, drunken brawls with officers, and even medical casualties.If history is any guide, Russia will again be fighting both their Ukrainian foes and the vodka bottle. The problem of drunkenness has already become so acute that regional authorities across Russia’s Far East have banned the sale of alcohol near call-up points. Meanwhile, rumors are circulating of anationwide Prohibition on vodka to ease mobilization. ‘

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Ahead Of VP Kamala Harris' Visit To South - Early Sunday morning North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the waters off the east coast of the Korean peninsula, the governments of South Korea and Japan say, which the south's military called a "clear violation" of the UN Security Council’s resolution, demanding that the test firings "immediately stop". CNN cites this fresh missile launch as the 19th this year, with the last coming on August 17, following promises from Kim Jong Un that he'll remain undeterred in expanding his country's "tactical capabilities". He's also of late teased even the possibility of a future nuclear test. "The missile had a flight distance of about 600 kilometers (370 miles), altitude of 60 kilometers (37 miles) and speed of about Mach 5, according to the JCS," CNN reports, in reference to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. "The intelligence agencies of South Korea and the US are analyzing further details." Japan’s Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada issued a particularly blistering response, "If you include launches of cruise missiles this is the nineteenth launch, which is an unprecedented pace," he said, adding: "North Korea’s action represent a threat to the peace and security of our country, the region and the international community and to do this as the Ukraine invasion unfolds is unforgivable." The launch seems timed as an intentional warning against a number of developments. "It's North Korea's way of showing defiance of the [US] alliance," AFP cited an analyst at the Rand Corporation, Soo Kim, as saying. First, within the past days, the nuclear-powered American aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan arrived in South Korea in preparation for joint drills. These will be the first such joint drills with South Korean forces involving a US aircraft carrier since 2017. Additionally, Vice President Kamala Harris is days away from touching down in Seoul for an official visit. As the AP previewed last week, "The North Korean threat is also expected to be a key agenda when U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris visits South Korea next week after attending the state funeral in Tokyo of slain former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe."

The typical Chinese adult is now richer than the typical European adult, a new wealth report finds -A major new report from investment banking and wealth management giant Credit Suisse has found that the average Chinese adult is now wealthier than the average European. Although North America and Europe together account for 57% of total household wealth globally, China is squeezing out Europe in rankings of wealth per median adult.Credit Suisse's annual Global Wealth Report, which was released this month, estimates the average wealth of households around the world.It found that Chinese median wealth per adult, at $26,752, now outstrips Europe, where the average adult has a wealth of $26,690. The European figure takes into account the whole of the continent, which includes many less wealthy nations in its southern and eastern regions. Median wealth in China was more than four times greater than in Russia, where median wealth was $6,379 in 2021. China's average wealth, however, was still less than a third of the wealth of the median American ($93,271) — and only about 10% of the wealth of the median Belgian ($256,336).Global wealth increased by 9.8% in 2021 compared to the year before, reaching a total $463.6 trillion."All regions contributed to the rise in global wealth, but North America and China dominated, with North America accounting for a little over half the global total and China adding another quarter," the report said. Europe, Latin America, Africa and India account for only 11.1% of global wealth, which the report puts down to local currency depreciation against the dollar in those regions.

Neo-fascist Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy wins general election - Georgia Meloni of the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party, the political successor of the Fascist Party of World War II-era dictator Benito Mussolini, won last night’s Italian general election. With 26 percent of the vote, she will seek to form a government with Silvio Berlusconi’s right-wing Forza Italia party (8 percent) and Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega (9 percent). Due to the extra seats granted under the Italian electoral system to the party receiving the most votes, the FdI and its allies are projected to have an absolute majority in both houses of parliament. They would have around 235 of the Chamber’s 400 seats and 115 of the Senate’s 200 seats. The elections saw a disintegration of the parties falsely designated by capitalist media as the “left.” The Democratic Party (PD), Italy’s main social-democratic party, fell to less than 19 percent, while populist Five-Star Movement (M5S) won 15.5 percent. The Popular Union, a coalition including remnants of Italy’s Rifondazione Comunista party that was endorsed by the pseudo-left Podemos government in Spain and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in France, received only 1.35 percent. The return of Mussolini’s descendants to direct rule over Italy, for the first time since the end of World War II 77 years ago, is a warning to workers worldwide. The only way forward against imperialist war and social austerity is a break with a bankrupt political establishment and a struggle to mobilize the working class, independently of the existing parties and national trade union bureaucracies, in a struggle for socialism. Since the 1991 Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union, European governments of all stripes have imposed austerity, bank bailouts for the rich, and waged imperialist wars. In Italy, Rifondazione Comunista and the PD played leading roles in government to impose these anti-worker policies. With the COVID-19 pandemic and the NATO war on Russia in Ukraine, the bourgeoisie is shifting even further to the right. Amid rising working class anger over the global surge of inflation, the ruling class is using Meloni’s populist demagogy to try to build a police state inspired by 20th-century fascism. Last night, Meloni began her victory speech by indicating that she saw it as a triumph of the fascist tradition. Meloni, whom official European media euphemistically refer to as “post-fascist,” said, “I dedicate this victory to all those who are no longer here and who deserved to be alive tonight.” She insisted that she would lead a “responsible” government and tried to use her gender to give herself a progressive gloss. Demanding “mutual respect” from other political organizations in Italy, she pledged to “concentrate on what unites us rather than what divides us. The time has come to be responsible.” Meloni told the press that, as Italy’s first female prime minister, her election was “a step forward. I defined it as breaking the ‘glass ceiling,’ one that still exists in many western countries, not only in Italy, preventing women from achieving important public roles in society.” Meloni also sought to calm concerns in ruling circles that she might make nationalist criticisms of the NATO war on Russia or the EU’s multi-trillion-euro bank bailouts for the super-rich. She emphasized that she supported Italy’s position inside the European Union (EU) and the NATO alliance, as well as the war against Russia in Ukraine. “We will be guarantors, without ambiguity, of Italy’s positioning and of our uttermost support to the heroic battle of the Ukrainian people,” she said. She also backed the surge in EU military spending and the EU’s cut-off of purchases of Russian natural gas: “If we had an EU more like the one we imagine, we would have developed a more effective defense policy, invested in energy security and maintained short value chains to avoid reliance on other—often untrustworthy—countries for gas, raw materials, commodities, chips and other goods.”

Mobile network outages expected in Europe this winter - Four European telecom executives said on September 29, 2022, there are currently not enough backup systems in many European countries to handle widespread power cuts, raising the prospect of mobile network outages this winter. European Union countries, including France, Sweden, and Germany, are trying to ensure communications can continue even if power cuts end up exhausting backup batteries installed on the thousands of cellular antennas spread across their territory, Reuters reports.1 The majority of Europe’s almost half-million telecom towers have battery backups that can power mobile antennas for approximately 30 minutes. According to Reuters, potential power cuts in France would last up to two hours in a word-case scenario. General blackouts in France would affect only parts of the country on a rotating basis but essential services such as hospitals, police, and government will not be impacted. Telcos in Sweden and Germany have also voiced worries about future electricity shortages with their respective governments, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the situation Swedish telecom regulator PTS is working with telecom operators and other government agencies to find solutions. One of them could be fuel stations and mobile base stations that connect to mobile phones to handle longer power outages. Italian telecoms lobby said power outages increase the probability of electronic components failing if subjected to abrupt interruptions, adding that they will ask the new government to exclude mobile networks from energy cuts. German Deutsche Telekom has 33 000 mobile radio towers across the country and its mobile emergency power systems can only support a small number of them at the same time, a company spokesperson said. Their idea is to use diesel emergency power systems in case of blackouts. In conclusion, Reuters report said large parts of Europe enjoyed uninterrupted power supply for decades, which made them spoiled and unprepared for what’s on the horizon.

Eurozone Inflation Spikes to 10%, Ex Energy 6.4%. Germany 10.9%. From Temporary Inflation mid-2021 to Runaway Inflation - Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. This is what runaway inflation that kicked off in mid-2021, and was called “temporary” by the ECB at the time, looks like 14 months into it, as inflationary pressures are shifting from energy to other items and to services. Inflation in the Eurozone jumped to 10.0% in September from 9.1% in August, a new record in the Eurozone data going back to 1997, according to preliminary data released today by Eurostat. In Germany, where some of the government’s inflation subsidies expired, inflation spiked to 10.9% from 8.8% in August. Nine of the 19 Eurozone countries had inflation of 10% or more, including the three Baltic countries, at over 22%. Inflation began spiking in mid-2021 – well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The fact that inflation began spiking in mid-2021, shooting past the ECB’s target of 2% in July 2021, and hitting 3% in August 2021, while the ECB called it “temporary,” shows that the same dynamics were at play as in the US: The inflation dam had broken, and suddenly inflation was washing over the land, and all inflation-heck was breaking loose. Central banks, lulled to sleep by years of QE and interest rate repression that hadn’t caused much consumer price inflation – just asset price inflation – blew it off as “temporary.” Then came the spike in costs of energy products and some other raw materials in 2022, making the already burning inflation scenario a whole lot worse. Energy costs are still the big driver (+40.8%), but price spikes have spread across the economy to other goods, and even to services. Services inflation jumped to 4.3% in September, up from 3.8% in August. The CPI without energy spiked to 6.4% in the Eurozone, from 5.8% in the prior month. This measure hit the 2% mark in October last year and has spiked relentlessly since then: Inflation in Germany hits 10.9%. Across the Eurozone, governments applied various strategies to push down the inflation rate, such as capping fuel prices, cutting fuel taxes, subsidizing fares for public transportation, etc., all of which kept the CPI lower. But some of those subsidies have expired, including in Germany. In Germany, CPI already hit 6.0% in November 2021, well before Russia invaded Ukraine. By June 2022, the government cut fuel taxes and offered a public transportation subsidy in from of a €9-per-month transportation pass that allowed people unlimited travel on rail systems, buses, and trams across the country. This program, which contributed to a dip in CPI in June and July, ended in August. And in September, CPI inflation spiked to 10.9%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West efforts to halt Russia’s territorial ambitions in Europe caused energy prices to spike further. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also tore directly into supply chains that ran through or originated in Ukraine, hitting Ukraine’s exports of iron, steel, cereals, animal feeds, electrical equipment, automotive components, etc., which triggered a series of shortages among European manufacturers, including automakers that were getting their wiring harnesses from manufacturers in Ukraine. All this contributed to price increases in Europe. The ECB ended QE in June when its balance sheet topped out at €8.84 trillion in total assets. On September 8, it hiked its policy rates for the second time,this one by 75 basis points, bringing its deposit rate to +0.75%, which finally ended the era of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), after its July rate hike had ended the crazy era of Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The absurdity now is that inflation is at 10% while the ECB’s main policy rate is at a ridiculous 0.75%:

UK Bond Yields Do Monster Spike, Pound Plunges as Bond Vigilantes Rise from Graves, Go after Government’s Fiscal Recklessness - Bank of England: won’t “hesitate” to hike rates “as much as needed.” Bond market fears much higher inflation and interest rates, for much longer. By Wolf Richter -It was thought that central banks, with their QE and interest-rate repression, had killed off any remaining bond vigilantes that used to hound governments that trafficked in reckless fiscal policies and high inflation rates. Under these conditions, bond vigilantes – big institutional investors that were tired of getting beaten up by government policies – refused to buy bonds at low yields, thereby pushing up interest rates and imposing high costs of borrowing as punishment. But maybe these dreaded but long-buried bond vigilantes are now rising from their unmarked graves as central banks have turned away from propping up bond markets, have turned to QT, and have started raising policy rates.In the UK bond market, the bond vigilantes have come back to life with a vengeance after the new government announced a massive package of tax cuts for the rich (by scrapping the top income tax rate and cancelling an increase in corporate taxes, in the classic form of trickle-down economics) accompanied by a surge in spending due to very expensive energy subsidies for businesses and households. While inflation is already raging at around 10%. The yield on the 10-year UK government bond (gilts) spiked by 44 basis points, to 4.28% at the moment, bringing the spike since Tuesday last week to 113 basis points, as bond prices plunged: The one-year yield on UK gilts spiked by a monstrous 65 basis points today to 4.16% at the moment, bringing the spike that started on Tuesday to 121 basis points. These are huge gigantic multiday moves: The British pound flash-crashed to a record low of $1.035 early this morning, after the plunge on Friday, before bouncing off to $1.07 at the moment, which is still down by 23% from mid-2021. Back in 2007, the pound was still trading above $2, before the financial crisis knocked it down to the $1.50 range.The initial issue was the “Growth Plan” by new Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose details were announced at the end of last week. This was then made a lot worse with exemplary efficiency by finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng on Sunday when he talked to BBC about it.He said to the world – practically daring the bond vigilantes to come out of their graves – when asked about the plunge of the pound and the spike in yields last week, that he wasn’t focused on market moves. Further tax cuts could be coming, he suggested, which didn’t help either. When challenged in the interview that the new policies of tax cuts and spending increases would further heat up the already red-hot inflation, he said that it was the responsibility of the Bank of England to deal with inflation, following the doctrine Truss had spelled out weeks earlier, that inflationary government policies amid the already worst inflation in decades were OK because it wasn’t the job of the government to deal with inflation, but the central bank’s job. The Bank of England addressed this situation in a statement today, pointing out that it would not “hesitate” to hike rates “by as much as needed to return inflation to the 2% target”: “The role of monetary policy is to ensure that demand does not get ahead of supply in a way that leads to more inflation over the medium term. As the MPC [the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee] has made clear, it will make a full assessment at its next scheduled meeting of the impact on demand and inflation from the Government’s announcements, and the fall in sterling, and act accordingly. The MPC will not hesitate to change interest rates by as much as needed to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.” Last week prior to the announcement of the government’s economic plan, the BoE had raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%. The next rate hike is due on November 3. It also confirmed QT, as laid out in August: it would reduce by nearly 10% its holdings of securities over the next 12 months.The BoE now has a much more difficult challenge, as the government is throwing more fuel on inflation, and it might have to react with more and bigger rate hikes, and more QT, to try to slow this inflation. And the bond market seems to be reacting to the simultaneous threats of much higher inflation than previously feared, fueled by these policies, and a much more vigorous inflation crackdown from the BoE with much higher interest rates for much longer than previously feared.

The Other Reason The BOE Panicked: 26% Of All UK Mortgages Are Variable Rate And Set For Imminent Repricing --Earlier today, we described the main reason why the BOE panicked - which, with billions in pensions set to suffer catastrophic losses absent an intervention, perhaps merited the latest central bank bailout. There is another reason why the central bank stepped in. It's not just the US where housing affordability is the worst in history: in a note from DB's Jim Reid, the bank's head of thematic strategist writes that the bank's UK Homebuilding equity research team pushed out some fascinating insights into what the recent UK issues could do to housing affordability.The note served for Reid's latest Chart of the Day, and shows the ratio of UK mortgage payments to take home pay. The colored lines and numbers look at where this would go if you moved rates up in 50bp increments, relative to the last published version of this chart which used an average new mortgage rate of 1.9% in Q2.For reference, Lloyds Bank were offering a 2yr fixed rate last night at 4.95%, assuming a 60-75% loan-to-value ratio, which goes up to 5.29% for 90-95% loan-to-value.So at these levels, this would send affordability to worse levels than that seen during the GFC and within a couple of percentage points of the peak in the late 1980s/early 90s when the UK saw a savage house price crash. The report (available to pro subscribers ) also shows that in aggregate, we’re already around those levels for London. Of course, not every mortgage needs to be refinanced today so these rates have time to change before most refinance. However, unlike the US where a 30-year fixed market dominates, the FCA suggested in August that 26% of the total outstanding UK mortgages are variable rate and thus dependent on where the BoE’s bank rate is. It is currently 2.25% but markets are now pricing in a terminal rate above 6% which would be a huge shock if it got close to happening over the next 6-9 months as is priced in. 74% of mortgages are fixed (mostly between 1-2%), and half of these will need to be refinanced within the next 2 years, with half at a fixed rate beyond 2 years (but rarely beyond 5 years).So 26% of mortgage payments are at risk of imminent increases, 37% at risk over the next two years if rates don’t rapidly fall, and 37% can ride out this storm for a few more years.As Reid concludes, while much can change very quickly in politics and markets, if markets are correct, "the UK housing market is in for a huge amount of pain ahead," unless the BOE were to somehow monetize all the upcoming debt issuance and sends rates back to zero.