Fed’s Daly Repeats Rates on Track to Rise to 4.5% to 5% in 2023 -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said that policymakers should start planning for a reduction in the size of interest-rate increases, though it’s not yet time to “step down” from large hikes. “It should at least be something we’re considering at this point, but the data haven’t been cooperating,” Daly said Friday in a fireside chat hosted by the University of California Berkeley. At the November meeting, “we might find ourselves, and the markets have certainly priced this in, with another 75 basis-point increase, but I would really recommend people don’t take that away as, it’s 75 forever.” A slowdown to more incremental increases of 50 or 25 basis points will be appropriate as the Fed’s benchmark rate gets closer to its terminal level for this hiking cycle, Daly said. She reiterated that recent central bank forecasts showing rates rising next year to as high as 5% and then pausing were still “a fairly good indication of where things are looking.” Daly said last week the central bank would need to raise rates above 4.5% next year in order to bring down inflation. She has expressed concern about core prices in particular, which rose to a 40-year high of 6.6% in September. Daly does not vote on monetary policy this year. Policymakers are expected to deliver a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate increase at their Nov. 1-2 meeting amid the persistent price increases. Expectations are also high for another jumbo-sized hike at the December meeting. The median expectation of the central bank’s 19 policy makers in September was for their benchmark federal funds rate to reach a peak of 4.6% next year. The subsequent disappointing inflation report has led some officials to suggest a higher peak may be needed to cool demand and reduce price pressures. “We need to be thoughtful in how restrictive we need to be and that means we need to be data dependent,” Daly said.
Fed's Bullard Leaves Open Possibility of Larger December Hike -Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard left open the possibility that the central bank would raise interest rates by 75 basis points at each of its next two meetings in November and December, while saying it was too soon to make that call. The Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points for the third straight meeting last month, to a target range of 3% to 3.25%. Officials projected 125 basis points of tightening for the rest of the year, suggesting a 75 basis-point move in November and 50 basis points in December. A further 25 basis points of tightening was penciled in for 2023, according to their median estimate.
Fed's Harker sees 'lack of progress' on inflation, expects aggressive rate hikes ahead - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday said higher interest rates have done little to keep inflation in check, so more increases will be needed. "We are going to keep raising rates for a while," the central bank official said in remarks for a speech in New Jersey. "Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year." The latter comment was in reference to the fed funds rate, which currently is targeted in a range between 3%-3.25%. Markets widely expect the Fed to approve a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike in early November, followed by another in December. The expectation is that the Federal Open Market Committee, of which Harker is a nonvoting member this year, will then take rates a bit higher in 2023 before settling in a range around 4.5%-4.75%. Harker indicated that those higher rates are likely to stay in place for an extended period. "Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates. At that point, I think we should hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work," he said. "It will take a while for the higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy. After that, if we have to, we can tighten further, based on the data." Inflation is currently running around its highest level in more than 40 years. According to the Fed's preferred gauge, headline personal consumption expenditures inflation is running at a 6.2% annual rate, while the core, excluding food and energy prices, is at 4.9%, both well above the central bank's 2% target. "Inflation will come down, but it will take some time to get to our target," Harker said.
Fed officials expect debate on rate peak and when to slow hikes - U.S. central bankers said the next phase in their campaign to curb inflation will be to debate how high to raise interest rates and when to slow the pace of increases. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly both stressed the need to keep tightening policy with inflation at a 40-year high, while suggesting more caution next year. Their comments at separate events Friday come as officials are about to enter their blackout period ahead of their Nov. 1-2 policy meeting. Both of them made clear they expect the discussion to be on the table at that gathering. "You've come off zero. You've gone to this much higher level of the policy rate. But once you're at the right level, then you can just make minor adjustments at that point — maybe to stay where you are, maybe to go a little bit higher, based on incoming data," Bullard said in an interview with Wharton Business Radio on SiriusXM. "This judgment about where you need to be to put meaningful downward pressure on inflation, I think that's a key part of the policy debate in the next two meetings," he said, citing models pointing to 4.5%-4.75% rates and bets in markets of a 5% peak. Bullard votes on monetary policy this year. Fed officials are expected to raise rates by 75 basis points next month for the fourth straight meeting with investors betting on either the same again or a 50-basis-point move in December. Daly said that policymakers should start planning for a reduction in the size of rate increases, though it's not yet time to "step down" from large hikes. "It should at least be something we're considering at this point, but the data haven't been cooperating," Daly said during a moderated discussion hosted by the University of California, Berkeley. At the November meeting, "we might find ourselves, and the markets have certainly priced this in, with another 75-basis-point increase, but I would really recommend people don't take that away as, it's 75 forever." A slowdown to more incremental increases of 50 or 25 basis points will be appropriate as the Fed's benchmark rate gets closer to its terminal level for this hiking cycle, Daly said. Fed forecasts released last month showed officials expecting rates to reach 4.4% this year and 4.6% in 2023, suggesting the pace of hikes will slow to 50 basis points in December and then downshift to 25 basis points early next year. Since then, disappointing news on inflation showing core consumer prices rising to a 40-year high of 6.6% in September has led some officials to suggest a higher peak may be needed to cool demand and reduce price pressures. "We need to be thoughtful in how restrictive we need to be and that means we need to be data dependent," said Daly, who does not vote on policy this year.
The Fed's Dilemma: "QT Will Break Something, And No One's Talking About It" --I’ve been in the Repo market for over 30 years, seen the evolution of the Fed, government programs and how they affect the markets. I’ve seen tightening and easing cycles, crises and booms. Through all of the changes, there’s one thing that’s for sure: The Repo market is a window into what’s going on behind the scenes.There’s a lot of concern about the fed funds rate right now. Keep in mind, the Fed moves this rate up and down. It was too low for a long time and it will eventually be too high. There might be a recession. Hopefully not. These all seem really important to the market right now, but they’re not the real risk. These are events we’ve experienced many times before. They’re a natural part of the financial markets. What’s important is the unknown unknown.That’s the “wild card.” Right now, the risk lurking in the shadows is Balance Sheet Runoff. The Fed, the markets, the regulators, and even us Repo guys have limited experience with the Fed shrinking the balance sheet. Bottom line: there’s a risk that Balance Sheet Runoff will breaking something. On top of that, no one’s talking about it! The Federal Reserve began growing the SOMA portfolio through a series of Quantitative Easing (QE) programs that originally began in November 2008. The most recent program ran from September 2019 to March 2022. The size of the balance sheet peaked at $8.9 trillion in April 2022 and, shortly thereafter, the Fed announced SOMA portfolio Runoff. That is, they would no longer reinvest the principal and interest payments they receive from maturing securities. The Fed was supposed to let $47.5 billion Treasurys and agency MBS mature each month between June and August. Beginning in September, the Fed is supposed to let $95 billion a month Runoff. At this point, there’s no official end to the Runoff, but I expect it will continue until something breaks.Think about $95 billion of Balance Sheet Runoff each month. That’s a massive amount of Treasury and agency securities entering the market. Now, when you consider net new Treasury issuance, there’s even more Treasury supply on the way. Though I’ve seen a range of estimates, let’s assume the government budget deficit is $1 trillion. That means there’s another $83 billion a month in new securities coming into the market. Combine Balance Sheet Runoff with net new Treasury issuance and we are looking at about $178 billion of securities coming into the market each month. Every month for the foreseeable future; no end in sight. Think of it this way, there will be $1 trillion more government securities in the market by March 2023. Where’s the cash coming from to pay for these securities? I might have the answer. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but clearly the Fed should have ended QE in 2021. In fact, April 2021 was the date when it should have ended. At that point, as the Fed continued buying, the market was sending the cash right back to the Fed through the RRP facility. Think of it this way: The Fed was injecting liquidity into the financial system and the market didn’t need that cash, so it gave it back to the Fed. Rule of thumb, when RRP volume increases during QE buying, the program is no longer effective. Because QE overstayed its welcome, the Fed now needs to wrestle with an even larger balance sheet. The last time around, Balance Sheet Runoff didn’t quite go so well. During the 2017 to 2019 Runoff period, the Fed shrunk the SOMA portfolio from $4.3 trillion to $3.6 trillion – a total of about $700 billion. From 2017 through 2018, the market absorbed that supply without incident. At least for a while. During that period, the Repo GC rate slowly moved from the bottom of the fed funds target range to the top. By the end of 2018, Repo GC was actually trading above the target range.
Some Fed directors eyed smaller September hike, others said more -- Some regional Federal Reserve bank directors last month favored raising a key interest rate by a smaller or larger amount than the 75 basis points that policymakers ultimately decided was needed to curb persistent inflation. The boards of two regional Fed banks, New York and San Francisco, voted Sept. 8 to seek a 50-basis-point increase in the discount rate — which covers emergency loans from the Fed to financial institutions. Minneapolis Fed directors voted on Sept. 8 to seek a 100-basis-point increase, according to minutes of discount-rate meetings released Tuesday by the Fed in Washington. The other nine regional bank boards voted on Sept. 8 or Sept. 15 to seek a 75-basis-point hike. Such votes — which don't actually set the rate — are often a proxy for the views of the banks' presidents, who sit on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The discount rate is approved by the seven-member Board of Governors and typically moves in tandem with the benchmark federal funds rate target set by the FOMC. Minutes of the FOMC's Sept. 20-21 meeting, released last week, showed unanimity among all 19 officials for a 75-basis-point hike, bringing the federal funds target to a range of 3% to 3.25%. Investors are watching to see when the Fed will downshift, though it currently appears on track for a fourth straight 75-basis-point increase next month and potentially a fifth in December. The separate FOMC minutes showed "several" participants indicating they are looking toward slowing the pace of tightening in light of rising global uncertainty and financial risks. "Several participants noted that, particularly in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it would be important to calibrate the pace of further policy tightening with the aim of mitigating the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook," the minutes said.
Bankers betting interest rates will peak in first half of 2023 - In the eyes of bankers, the U.S. is about three to nine months from seeing its highest interest rates in more than 15 years and perhaps even closer to an economic slowdown. Almost two-thirds of banking executives think the federal funds rate will peak in the first half of 2023, according to an IntraFi Network survey of more than 450 bank executives released Tuesday. Close to 60% of banking leaders expressed concern that the Federal Reserve will raise rates too quickly in its bid to tame inflation. Those fears have created a consensus that a recession is on the horizon. About 52% of bank executives believe the U.S. economy has already entered a recession or will do so by the end of the year. That could mean trouble for bank profits, which often soar and fall alongside the economy. Executives said they anticipate both higher funding costs and depressed loan demand a year from now, when a recession may be in full swing. "Most concerns about an upcoming recession are really built around inflation and interest rates, and this survey really confirms that," said Paul Weinstein, senior policy advisor at IntraFi Network. At their last meeting, Fed officials said they expected to raise rates to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, 125 basis points higher than their current level. The Fed has hiked rates by 75 basis points at each of its last three meetings and is expected to hike rates again in November and December. "We haven't yet made meaningful progress on inflation, and until that progress is both meaningful and consistent, I support continued rate increases," Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said earlier this month. Businesses nervous about their economic prospects could pull back on planned expansions, while consumers wary of losing their jobs might delay big-ticket purchases. About 56% of bank executives anticipate loan demand to decrease moderately or significantly 12 months from now, according to the IntraFi survey. Most bank executives expect interest rates to peak in the first half of 2023. But they expect higher rates to weigh on business well past that period.
Bullard's event with Citi exposes weak spots in Fed ethics rules -Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard's reported speaking engagement at an invitation-only private event hosted by Citigroup last Friday may have violated the central bank's communications guidelines, central bank watchers said. Bullard, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, spoke about monetary policy and the economy during an event on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington, The New York Times reported Thursday. The St. Louis Fed declined to immediately comment on the report. A spokesperson for the bank told The New York Times that he wasn't compensated for the speech. Citi and the Fed Board of Governors in Washington both declined to comment. The presidents of the 12 Fed regional banks typically announce speaking engagements in advance and invite media to attend, and in recent years they have often released texts of speeches or presentations and webcast their remarks. Read More: Fed's Bullard Leaves Open Possibility of Larger December Hike Bullard is closely followed by Wall Street and comments frequently in public and in press interviews. Even if there was nothing new disclosed to Citi clients, Bullard's appearance could be seen as a violation of Fed rules on communications that aim to avoid providing a profit-making firm with an advantage by allowing them to get clients close to a policymaker. These guidelines state that FOMC participants "will strive to ensure that their contacts with members of the public do not provide any profit-making person or organization with a prestige advantage over its competitors."
Yellen Rejects Concern About Inflation Becoming Entrenched - -- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen dismissed the idea that high inflation is becoming embedded in the US economy, pointing to moderate expectations for price gains over the longer haul. “The way inflation would become embedded is if you saw expectations for inflation over the medium term rising to levels inconsistent with 2% inflation -- and then those higher inflation expectations being built into wages and prices, Yellen said Friday in answering reporters’ questions after an event in Herndon, Virginia. “And I see no sign of that.” The latest consumer price index report fueled worries about sustained inflation pressures, with a measure that excludes food and energy jumping 6.6% in September from a year before. That was the biggest surge since 1982. “We’ve got a ways to go to get inflation down,” based on that report, Yellen said. But “we’re seeing some early signs -- for example faster supplier delivery, shipping costs coming down -- that will feed into” prices over time, she said. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s measure of one-year-ahead inflation expectations, which jumped to as high as 6.8% in June 2022, has since declined to 5.4% Yellen also reiterated her assessment that there’s still a possible path to bringing down inflation without a surge in unemployment. “One of the reasons I continue to see a path to lowering inflation while maintaining a strong labor market in the process is because I do not believe we’re in an entrenched inflation situation,” she said. The Treasury chief also hailed Friday’s report showing the biggest reduction in the US budget deficit on record. President Joe Biden’s economic policies have shored up fiscal credibility, she said. “I do see our debt as being on a responsible path,” she said. Yellen highlighted that the rate of interest paid on government debt, after adjusting for inflation, was negative for the past couple of years. Administration projections show it rising to 1%, “which is a low level that’s historically average,” she said.
Fed says economy grew modestly but recession worry dims outlook - The Federal Reserve sounded a note of caution on the U.S. economy, which expanded "modestly" through early October with slowing activity raising recession concerns amid some indications of easing inflationary pressure. "Outlooks grew more pessimistic amidst growing concerns about weakening demand," the Fed said Wednesday in its Beige Book report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Several Districts reported a cooling in labor demand, with some noting that businesses were hesitant to add to payrolls amid increased concerns of an economic downturn." The report was based on anecdotal information collected by the Fed's 12 regional banks through Oct. 7 and compiled by the Dallas Fed. It mentioned the word "recession" 13 times compared with 10 times in September's Beige Book. "National economic activity expanded modestly on net since the previous report; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts," the Fed said. "Four Districts noted flat activity and two cited declines, with slowing or weak demand attributed to higher interest rates, inflation, and supply disruptions." The Fed has been raising interest rates aggressively to try and cool demand to bring down consumer inflation that has remained above 8% for seven straight months. The central bank is on track for a fourth consecutive 75- basis-point interest rate hike in early November as policymakers battle the hottest inflation in four decades. Investors are betting another increase of that size is likely in December, with markets seeing rates approaching 5% next year, after disappointing inflation news. "Some contacts noted solid pricing power over the past six weeks, while others said cost passthrough was becoming more difficult as customers push back," the report found. "Looking ahead, expectations were for price increases to generally moderate." Recession concerns surfaced in several parts of the country. In the Boston Fed district, for example, "the outlook turned more pessimistic as recession fears spread." One manufacturer instituted a hiring freeze amid the concern. And in the Philadelphia region, "talk of a recession rose." U.S. core consumer prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 6.6% in September from a year ago, the highest level since 1982, according to a Labor Department report published Oct. 13. That continues a worrying pattern for policymakers after the gauge accelerated in August as well.
Fed's Beige Book: "Rising mortgage rates and elevated house prices further weakened single-family starts and sales" -- Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before October 7, 2022." Excerpt: National economic activity expanded modestly on net since the previous report; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Four Districts noted flat activity and two cited declines, with slowing or weak demand attributed to higher interest rates, inflation, and supply disruptions. Retail spending was relatively flat, reflecting lower discretionary spending, and auto dealers noted sustained sluggishness in sales stemming from limited inventories, high vehicle prices, and rising interest rates. Travel and tourist activity rose strongly, boosted by continued strength in leisure activity and a pickup in business travel. Manufacturing activity held steady or expanded in most Districts in part due to easing in supply chain disruptions, though there were a few reports of output declines. Demand for nonfinancial services rose. Activity in transportation services was mixed, as port activity increased strongly whereas reports of trucking and freight demand were mixed. Rising mortgage rates and elevated house prices further weakened single-family starts and sales, but helped buoy apartment leasing and rents, which generally remained high. Commercial real estate slowed in both construction and sales amid supply shortages and elevated construction and borrowing costs, and there were scattered reports of declining property prices. Industrial leasing remained robust, while office demand was tepid. Bankers in most reporting Districts cited declines in loan volumes, partly a result of shrinking residential real estate lending. Energy activity expanded moderately, whereas agriculture reports were mixed, as drought conditions and high input costs remained a challenge. Outlooks grew more pessimistic amidst growing concerns about weakening demand.Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Several Districts reported a cooling in labor demand, with some noting that businesses were hesitant to add to payrolls amid increased concerns of an economic downturn. There were also scattered mentions of hiring freezes. Overall labor market conditions remained tight, though half of Districts noted some easing of hiring and/or retention difficulties.
98% of CEOs are prepping for US recession: survey - Nearly all CEOs are readying for the U.S. economy to fall into a recession, according to a survey released Thursday by The Conference Board. The survey, The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, found that 98% of CEOs indicated they were preparing for a U.S. recession over the next year or year and a half. That figure is five percentage points higher than in the third-quarter survey. Of those who anticipated a recession, 85% said they’re prepping for a "brief and shallow" one with "limited global spillover," according to The Conference Board. About 13% said they are bracing for a "deep" U.S. recession "with material global spillover." "CEO confidence sunk further to start Q4 and is at its lowest level since the Great Recession," Dana Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist, said in a statement. Roughly 81% of CEOs said economic conditions had gotten worse compared to six months ago, a 4% increase from the third quarter, according to The Conference Board. Nearly three-quarters were pessimistic about their expectations for the coming six months, with 74% saying they thought conditions would get worse. U.S. economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product, fell in the first and second quarters of the year. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, recessions are technically defined by back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth and characterized by slowing retail sales, high unemployment, falling income and low or negative GDP growth. "However, despite expectations of slower growth, tight labor market conditions and wage pressures persist, while hiring plans remained robust," Peterson noted. The survey also found that a majority of CEOs are still grappling with inflation. About 59% of CEOs said input costs over the prior three months "remained about the same or increased" and they "do not anticipate easing" by year's end, according to The Conference Board. Both consumer and wholesale inflation remained painfully high in September, FOX Business previously reported. According to the survey, 30% of CEOs also said their input costs have stayed the same or gone up but indicated they "expect to see easing by year end." Conversely, just 3% said input costs have eased, enabling them to lower consumer prices.
US recession 100% certain within 12 months: Bloomberg economic model - The US economy falling into recession within the next 12 months is a virtual certainty, according to the New York Post, citing Bloomberg Economics forecast model released on Monday. Many top executives from Wall Street's biggest banks share similar views, saying they're preparing for a potential recession.Bloomberg Economics' latest statistical projections showed a 100 percent probability of a recession within the next 12 months, compared to a 65 percent likelihood of a recession in the Bloomberg model's most recent previous update. The forecast gave reasons for the recession including the US economy contends with decades-high inflation, US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, and mounting geopolitical tensions.Nearly all CEOs are readying for the US economy to fall into a recession, according to FOX Business, citing a survey released on Oct 13 by The Conference Board.The survey found that 98 percent of CEOs indicated they were preparing for a US recession over the next year or year and a half. That figure is five percent higher than in the third-quarter survey. About 81 percent of CEOs said economic conditions had gotten worse compared to six months ago, according to The Conference Board. Nearly three-quarters were pessimistic about their expectations for the coming six months, with 74 percent saying they thought conditions would get worse."We recognize the pressure points are building in several areas of the economy that could lead to stress in the future," said Andy Cecere, CEO of US Bank, in an Associated Press report on Oct 14. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf told investors on a conference call that the bank expects broader economic conditions to weaken.JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said to the Associated Press that there's a "very, very serious" mix of concerns could lead to a recession in the next six to nine months.There's an 80-percent chance of the US falling into a recession — much higher than previously predicted, according to Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke said that to CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Sept 23. Hanke was critical of the US Federal Reserve's failure to manage inflation. "They have really been searching for inflation and the causes of inflation in all the wrong places. They're looking at everything under the sun, but the money supply," Hanke said.
Recession to hit in early 2023, Fannie Mae says - The U.S. economy is likely to enter into a recession in the first quarter of 2023 due to a combination of high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and a slowing housing market, Fannie Mae's latest forecast predicts.The government-sponsored enterprise's Chief Economist Doug Duncan first mentioned the likelihood of a recession in his April forecast when he expected it to begin in the second half of 2023. A month later the expectation was revised, to reflect that it may start earlier in the year.This new forecast reinforces Fannie Mae's July update expecting a first quarter downturn.Duncan predicts the Federal Open Market Committee will raise short-term rates another 75 basis points at its meeting later today. At the same time, after a downturn in August, mortgage rates began climbing again, topping 6% last week, according to Freddie Mac."In our view, the recent interest rate surge is due to the market's recognition of two critical factors: that inflation is indeed not transitory, and that, to tame it, the Federal Reserve will need to be resolute, even at the risk of possible recession," said Duncan said in a press release. "Inflation's entrenchment — and the policy action likely required of the Fed — confirms the expectation in our forecast of a moderate recession beginning in the first quarter of 2023."Taking the opposite position are the economists from the UCLA Anderson Forecast, who claim its data-driven analysis suggests that the U.S. is not currently in a recession and that the chance of a recession in the next 12 months is less than 50%.But it does cite some downside risks, including a downturn in housing markets related to rising mortgage rates."There is tremendous uncertainty about what will happen over the course of the next 12 months and through the end of our forecast horizon," said UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist Leo Feler in a press release. "While we have not forecast a recession at this time, the risks to the U.S. economy are asymmetric to the downside."Arch MI's Housing and Mortgage Market Review declared home prices should not experience a sustained decline on a national basis over the next year, even with a strong chance the overall economy could enter a recession."Key factors bolstering our belief in a soft landing for national home prices are the still-tight inventory of homes for sale and the long-term fundamental shortage of homes," said Parker Ross, Arch Global Mortgage Group's senior vice president and chief economist. "Despite the slowdown in home sales activity, the market for existing homes has yet to recover to typical pre-pandemic inventory levels as the pace of new listings has slowed as well."Previous Fed increases have had the desired effect on housing as home price growth has slowed starting in June, Duncan added."We expect the slowdown in housing to continue through 2023 as affordability constraints mount for potential homebuyers, and considering, too, that refinance activity has been significantly curtailed by the rise in mortgage rates," he continued.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 15th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 6.9% from the same day in 2019 (93.1% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - seems to be picking up a little, but overall, still below 2019 levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 13th. Movie ticket sales were at $83 million last week, down about 55% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through Oct 8th. The occupancy rate was down 3.5% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of October 7th, gasoline supplied was down 12.5% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-October 2022 - by Menzie Chinn - Industrial and manufacturing production both at 0.4% m/m growth, above consensus (0.1% and 0.2%, respectively) in September, showing resumed growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/4/2022 release), and author’s calculations.GDP as reported in the annual benchmark revision reported at end-2022 (which revised the series up through 2022Q1) shows two quarters of decline. However, as noted elsewhere, this is not the official definition of a recession in the United States; rather that determination is made by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, based upon a wide variety of indicators, and only secondarily on (oft-revised) GDP. Here is the corresponding picture, showing official GDP (through Q2), and the implied level of GDP from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast (10/14/2022).Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment as implied by annual benchmark revisions (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP through Q2, and GDPNow for Q3 (teal bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/4/2022 release), GDPNow(10/14/22 release), and author’s calculations.Note the continued growth in the labor series even during the slowdown in official GDP during H1, which some observers have tagged as a recessionary period. Consumption and industrial production also increased (by about 1% and 2% respectively) over this period. Hence, I remain skeptical of the that we were in a recession in 2022H1.Of course, this is a backward looking assessment. A high frequency assessment is here (albeit looking at y/y growth to last week). Looking forward, lots of economists see a recession.
Summers Warns on Deficit ‘Doom Loop’ Risk, Oil Price Spike - -- Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that policy makers in the US and elsewhere should heed the fiscal lessons from the UK’s recent crisis, and not assume Britain’s troubles were unique. “That would be a real mistake” to conclude that other countries wouldn’t end up confronting similar challenges, Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. The first lesson from the UK is “that things can change extraordinarily fast.” Governments need to pay increasing attention to their budgets, with mounting deficits alongside surging borrowing costs having the potential for shaking confidence, he said. In the US, student-loan forgiveness, emergency funding for Hurricane Ian and rising defense spending needs suggest that fiscal debates will need to be “back on the table,” he said. “If your deficit projection starts to get out of control and your real interest rates start to rise rapidly, you can get into a kind of doom loop,” said Summers. “We’re going to need to be watching our own fiscal projections in the United States very carefully.” Yellen on Friday recognized the importance of having “a credible fiscal policy and to make sure the debt is sustainable over time,” and argued that “our budgets have done that.” She hailed fresh data showing an historic drop in the deficit. “I do see our debt as being on a responsible path,” Yellen said in answering questions from reporters. Summers said that a further risk stemming from government debt markets is the concern with deteriorating trading conditions. He endorsed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent expression of concern over a “loss of adequate liquidity” in US Treasuries. While rising borrowing costs are escalating the risks, Summers cautioned that it would be unwise for the Federal Reserve to be dissuaded from continuing with its plans for aggressive interest-rate hikes. Failing to follow through would mean “stagflation,” with high inflation making an economic downturn all the worse. Inflation is at risk of getting fresh impetus from a spike in oil prices, the former Treasury chief also said. He worried over US “confrontation” with what he described as a “Russian-Saudi axis.” The Biden administration has blasted Saudi Arabia’s recent push to reduce oil production, while it’s also pursuing an oil-price cap on Russian crude. “This is going to be a very complex time and I hope that we get through it while avoiding oil price spikes,” he said. But “my guess is that that’s going to happen,” he added. A renewed spike in oil is “a major downside wildcard from here, both with respect to inflation, and with respect to recession.” Once the US does enter a recession, Washington will need to be careful with regard to deploying any fiscal support package, Summers also said -- given the danger of a negative response in the bond market. It’s one consequence of having rapidly run up government borrowing in recent years, he said. “Unfortunately, I think we fired the fiscal cannon so strongly that there’s going to be limited room for discretionary fiscal policy if we have another recession,” he said.
U.S. Budget Deficit Halves to $1.375 Trln Despite $430 Billion in Student Loan Costs (Reuters) -The U.S. government on Friday reported that its fiscal 2022 budget deficit plunged by half from a year earlier to $1.375 trillion, due to fading COVID-19 relief spending and record revenues fueled by a hot economy, but student loan forgiveness costs limited the reduction. The U.S. Treasury said the $1.400 trillion reduction in the deficit was still the largest-ever single-year improvement in the U.S. fiscal position as receipts hit a record $4.896 trillion, up $850 billion, or 21% from fiscal 2021. President Joe Biden touted the deficit reductions in remarks at the White House and at Delaware State University, and said the deficit would shrink by another $250 billion over the next decade, given Medicare's ability to negotiate lower drug prices. Outlays for fiscal 2022, which ended Sept. 30, fell by a record $550 billion, or 8% from last year to $6.272 trillion. But the outlays for September, the fiscal year's final month, included the recognition of $430 billion in costs from the Biden administration's plan to forgive student debt of up to $20,000 for former college students now earning under $125,000 a year and under $250,000 for married couples. The move brought the September budget deficit to $430 billion, more than six times the prior-year September deficit of $65 billion. In most years, September is a surplus month due to the payment of quarterly corporate and individual taxes. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the plan would cost about $400 billion. It also includes the extension of a COVID-19 moratorium on all student loan payments until the end of 2022, which added about $21 billion in budgetary costs. Non-governmental budget analysts have estimated that the plan would wipe out a much-touted deficit reduction from Democrats' recently enacted climate, healthcare and Internal Revenue Service funding bill. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters that the Biden administration was maintaining a "credible fiscal policy" despite the unfunded student debt relief that was a Biden campaign promise. "I do see our debt as being on a responsible path," she said, adding that net interest on the debt as a share of GDP was forecast to only rise to about 1%, a "low" historical level. Revenue gains during September started to slow from prior months, growing only 6% from a year earlier to $488 billion. And the CBO is projecting that with the economy slowing further amid higher Federal Reserve interest rates, revenues will slow further in future years. Rising interest costs also will start to consume a bigger share of the federal budget, the non-partisan fiscal referee agency predicts. Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscal watchdog group, said the effect of recognizing the student loan forgiveness costs in fiscal 2022 will be to show a steadier decline in deficits from the pandemic - rather than a sharper narrowing to around $1 trillion, followed by an increase to around $1.4 trillion for fiscal 2023. The CBO had forecast a fiscal 2023 deficit of about $984 billion, with deficits rising steadily thereafter to nearly $2 trillion by 2030. "I think it's more appropriate to recognize the costs as the debt is being canceled, and the bulk of that will happen in fiscal 2023. But the government has latitude here," .
US rehearses dropping nuclear bombs in Europe - On Monday, the NATO military alliance will hold a training exercise, known as Steadfast Noon, in which US B-52 bombers and F-16 fighters will simulate dropping atomic bombs over Europe amid a deepening nuclear standoff with Russia.The training exercise comes just ten days after US President Joe Biden warned of a nuclear “apocalypse,” saying the risk of nuclear war is the greatest since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.“This is the exercise that practices NATO’s nuclear strike mission with dual-capable aircraft and the B61 tactical nuclear bombs the US deploys in Europe,” wrote Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.The aircraft will rehearse dropping B61 “tactical” thermonuclear bombs, each of which is up to 20 times more powerful than the weapon that destroyed Hiroshima in World War II, killing as many as 126,000 civilians While nuclear training exercises are usually presented as routine, nonthreatening, and not targeting any specific country, this year NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made clear that the exercise is intended as a threat to Russia.In a speech that mentioned Russia five times, Stoltenberg announced, “Next week, NATO will hold its long-planned deterrence exercise, Steadfast Noon.” He added, “Russia knows that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”As of 2019, the United States had 150 “tactical” nuclear warheads stationed throughout Europe as part of the NATO nuclear arsenal, including in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.On Sunday, one day ahead of the scheduled nuclear drill, China told its citizens living in Ukraine to evacuate the country, citing the “grave security situation.”In June, the NATO alliance published a document pledging to “deliver the full range of forces” needed “for high-intensity, multi-domain warfighting against nuclear-armed peer-competitors.”In announcing the Steadfast Noon exercise, NATO said the training flights include “14 countries and up to 60 aircraft of various types, including fourth and fifth generation fighter jets, as well as surveillance and tanker aircraft.” It added that “US B-52 long-range bombers” will “fly from Minot Air Base in North Dakota” to take part in the exercise.The flights will take place “over Belgium, which is hosting the exercise, as well as over the North Sea and the United Kingdom.”NATO added, “No live weapons are used,” which is a relief because the weapons involved in the drill would irradiate several hundred square miles and disperse fallout in multiple countries.On October 7, President Joe Biden said the world is at risk of nuclear “Armageddon,” implying that the rapid escalation of the war in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war between the United States and Russia.“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Biden said. Biden added that he did not think “there’s any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”In February, he warned that sending offensive weaponry to Ukraine would trigger “World War III.” Since that time, the US has sent hundreds of armored vehicles, advanced long-range missile systems, and other high-end weapons to Ukraine.In an article published last week in Politico, former CIA Director Leon Panetta wrote that the US intelligence agencies believe the odds of the war in Ukraine spiraling into a nuclear war are as high as one in four.“Some intelligence analysts now believe that the probability of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine has risen from 1-5 percent at the start of the war to 20-25 percent today,” Panetta wrote.On Friday, the Guardian reported that governments are making plans to prevent “panic” should the war in Ukraine escalate into a nuclear conflict. “West makes plans to avoid panic if Russia uses nuclear bomb in Ukraine” was the headline of its report, which cited an unnamed official as saying that governments are carrying out “prudent planning for a range of possible scenarios.”
Johnstone: The Profoundly Stupid Narrative That Nuclear Brinkmanship Is Safety And De-Escalation Is Danger --Of all the face-meltingly stupid narratives that have been circulated about the US proxy war in Ukraine, the dumbest so far has got to be the increasingly common claim that aggressively escalating nuclear brinkmanship is safety and de-escalation is danger. We see a prime example of this self-evidently idiotic narrative in a new Business Insider article titled “Putin’s nuclear threats are pushing people like Trump and Elon Musk to press for a Ukraine peace deal. A nuclear expert warns that’s ‘dangerous.’”“An understandable desire to avoid a nuclear war could actually make the world more dangerous if it means rushing to implement a ‘peace’ in Ukraine that serves Russian interests,” writes reliable empire apologist Charles Davis. “Such a move, which some influential figures have called for, risks setting a precedent that atomic blackmail is the way to win wars and take territory troops can’t otherwise hold, a model that could be copycatted by even the weakest nuclear-armed states, and may only succeed at delaying another war.”Not every day that a headline can fully capture the depravity of US media and political culture: pic.twitter.com/oMRhBmWFfU — Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) October 16, 2022Davis’ sole source for his article is the UN Institute for Disarmament Research’s Pavel Podvig, who is very openly biased against Russia. “The West supports Ukraine with weapons and financial and moral and political support. Giving that up and saying that, ‘Well, you know, we are too afraid of nuclear threats and so we just want to make a deal’ — that would certainly set a precedent that would not be very positive,” says Podvig. “If you yield to this nuclear threat once, then what would prevent Russia in the future — or others — to do the same thing again?” Like other empire apologists currently pushing the ridiculous “de-escalation actually causes escalation” line, Davis and Podvig argue as though nuclear weapons just showed up on the scene a few days ago, as if there haven’t been generations of western policies toward Moscow which have indeed involved backing down and making compromises at times because doing so was seen as preferable to risking a nuclear attack. We survived the Cuban Missile Crisis because Kennedy secretly acquiesced to Khrushchev’s demands that the US remove the Jupiter missiles it had placed in Turkey and Italy, which was what provoked Moscow to move nukes to Cuba in the first place. Throughout the cold war the Soviet Union insisted on a sphere of influence that US strategists granted a wide berth to, exactly because it was a nuclear superpower. Nevertheless we’re seeing this new “escalation is safety and de-escalation is danger” narrative pushed with increasing forcefulness by imperial spinmeisters, because it would take a lot of force indeed to get people to accept something so self-evidently backwards and nonsensical.
White House Scrambles After Biden Suggests Pakistan's Nukes Are 'Unsafe' --The White House is in damage control after rare criticism directed against US ally Pakistan by President Joe Biden has created an uproar and severe diplomatic tensions. Biden said last Thursday that Pakistan was "one of the most dangerous nations in the world" because it has "nuclear weapons without any cohesion." The statement strongly suggesting Pakistan's nukes are insecure and therefore in potentially unsafe hands, according to an official transcript of remarks given at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Los Angeles. On Monday the US administration sought to reassure its central Asian ally, saying the United States remains "confident" that Pakistan can secure its nuclear arsenal - a reversal of Biden's own words. "The United States is confident of Pakistan's commitment and its ability to secure its nuclear assets," State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told a press briefing. The statement comes two days after on Saturday Pakistan summoned the US ambassador in Islamabad to condemn the remarks. Biden's words even elicited an irate response from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who said over the weekend: "Pakistan is a responsible nuclear state and we are proud that our nuclear assets have the best safeguards as per IAEA requirements," Sharif tweeted, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency. "We take these safety measures with the utmost seriousness. Let no one have any doubts." Pakistan’s foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari expressed surprised at Biden's assessment, chalking it up to possible "misunderstanding". CNN noted that American diplomats in the region were frustrated by the confusion and political pressure unleashed from the Pakistani government in the wake of the comments. Bhutto-Zardari described his feelings as follows: "I believe this is exactly the sort of misunderstanding that is created when there is a lack of engagement and luckily, we have embarked on a journey of engagement." Other top Pakistani officials voiced their anger too...
US lagging China, Russia on hypersonic weapons: Lamborn - Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) on Tuesday raised concerns that the United States is falling behind adversaries China and Russia in manufacturing and testing hypersonic missiles. “As a country, we are behind China, and even Russia for that matter, and this is not a good situation,” Lamborn said, adding hypersonics are “a whole new type of offensive capability, and we are behind, no doubt about it.” Lamborn’s concerns were echoed by academics and weapons experts who joined The Hill’s Tuesday event, “National Security at the Speed of Sound: Hypersonics in American Defense,” sponsored by Raytheon Industries. Hypersonic missiles are weapons that have the capability to travel at five times the speed of sound, roughly 4,000 miles per hour. They are designed to be so fast that other defense technology cannot react in time to prevent strikes. Lamborn, the ranking member on the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, said the U.S. must expedite its testing capabilities in order to catch up to other nations. He pointed specifically to HBTSS satellites, which could track hypersonic weapons from China and elsewhere. “Right now, we don’t have the ability to adequately cover the tracking and even the fire control when it comes to hypersonic vehicles,” Lamborn told Hill editor-in-chief Bob Cusack. “We need to have the sensor layers in space.” Lamborn’s concerns were echoed by defense experts Mark Lewis, director of the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies Institute, as well as Kelly Stephani, an associate professor in the Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “The country that actually worries me the most is China,” Lewis said. “Their systems factor much more closely into what we would anticipate as far as warfighting capabilities in that part of the world. We have seen what appear to be very capable systems in the hands of the Chinese.” Cusack asked Stephani whether she sees China ahead of the U.S. in these technological advancements, to which she bluntly answered, “Yes.”
Blinken- China Wants To Seize Taiwan On A Much Faster Timeline Than Previously Thought - China has made a decision to seize Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" than previously thought, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday after China's leader Xi Jinping reiterated his intent to take the island, by force if necessary."There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years," Blinken said in an event at Stanford University in California, according to Bloomberg.The remarks from Biden's top diplomat on Monday come as China holds its twice-a-decade Communist party congress, and were in response to Xi Jinping's widely-watched, nearly two-hour-long speech on Sunday to say the "wheels of history are rolling on towards China's reunification" with Taiwan. While peaceful means were preferable, Xi added, "we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary."According to Blinken, China has made a "fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline." He didn't elaborate on the timing or provide other details.Responding to Blinken's remarks on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin criticized the U.S. for selling billions in advanced weapons to Taiwan and accused the Biden administration of encouraging the island's move toward formal independence."Resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese, a matter that must be resolved by the Chinese," Wang told reporters at a regular briefing. "We are ready to create vast space for peaceful reunification, but we will leave no room for separatist activities in any form."As Bloomberg notes, although Biden administration officials have regularly accused China of eroding the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, comments about Beijing's intentions with regard to an invasion are less common.Observers are highly sensitive to any remarks that might provide insights into how senior officials in Beijing or Washington view the potential for war over Taiwan — an event that would have enormous geopolitical and economic consequences, particularly given President Joe Biden's repeated pledges that the U.S. would help defend the island.
Senate Seeks $10 Billion In Military Aid For Taiwan -The Senate’s version of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will include $10 billion in military aid for Taiwan, Defense News reported on Monday.The $10 billion would be given to Taiwan over five years in the form of Foreign Military Financing (FMF), a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to purchase US weapons.However, Taiwan will be able to use $300 million of the FMF each year to purchase military equipment from its own industrial base, a privilege only currently enjoyed by Israel. Other FMF recipients need waivers to use the funds to purchase arms that don’t come from the US.The $10 billion is a massive increase from the $4.5 billion initially proposed by Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) in a piece of legislation known as the Taiwan Policy Act. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee brought the military aid up to $6.5 billion when it advanced the bill in September.But the senators have decided to include the military aid portion of the Taiwan Policy Act in the NDAA, which was boosted to $10 billion in a bipartisan amendment added to the military spending bill by Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI).The Taiwan Policy Act would also boost diplomatic ties with Taiwan, requires sanctions in the event of Chinese aggression, and give Taiwan the benefits of being a major non-NATO ally. But those aspects of the bill were not included in the NDAA amendment.The Senate is expected to vote on the NDAA when Congress returns to Washington after mid-term elections in November. Once approved, the House and Senate will need to negotiate the final version that will head to President Biden’s desk.
Xi-Biden Meeting At G20 Reported To Be In Peril As Beijing 'Stonewalling' Preparation - The Biden White House has been looking for openings toward maintaining ways to cooperate productively with China, particularly on key issues such as climate change, despite ongoing tensions in the South China Sea and over the simmering Taiwan issue. But these efforts appear to be in peril, Politico has reported, as the Chinese side is said to be stonewalling preparations for a crucial upcoming face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali set for mid-November."Beijing won’t engage with U.S. officials trying to draft an agenda for the meeting, according to a person familiar with the planning — a move that could prevent it from happening at all," Politico wrote in the recent report.The latest US statements and actions regarding trade, on China's human rights record, as well as Taiwan - including continuing preparations for major weapons packages - has reportedly frustrated and outraged Beijing officials to the point that China might back out of the G20 Xi-Biden meeting altogether.The latest salvo from early last month was an announced $1.1 billion arms sale package for Taiwan approved by the Biden administration, marking no less than the sixth major defense package under Biden. The New York Times soon after the massive new arms package was announced observed that the US is seeking to turn Taiwan into a "giant weapons depot".While neither China's foreign ministry nor its embassy in Washington has given official comment, one diplomat privy to the behind-the-scene signaling explained the following: "Normally, when you have a presidential bilat you start working out the agenda quite a while in advance, but Chinese diplomats are saying, 'You guys whack us every other day — if that is the environment, how can we expect a positive outcome from a Xi-Biden meeting?'" a person briefed by Chinese officials on the planning told POLITICO."If they can’t have a positive outcome, their view is 'should we even have the meeting?'" the person said. The individual was granted anonymity to prevent possible reprisals for speaking publicly about the bilateral spat.However, the US side did respond to growing rumors and reports that Beijing is stonewalling..."This story is 100 percent false,” a National Security Council’s top spokesperson, was quoted by Politico as saying. “We’ve already said the two presidents tasked out their teams to look into a meeting. I won’t get beyond that though in terms of timing and location as of now." And yet at least one diplomat involved in the planning admitted under anonymity that a G20 meeting between Biden and Xi is "still not confirmed".
Kevin McCarthy suggests a G.O.P.-led House would question aid to Ukraine. — Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the top House Republican, said that if his party wins a majority in next month’s midterm elections, its members would be unwilling to “write a blank check” to Ukraine, suggesting it could be more difficult for President Biden to get congressional approval for large infusions of aid to bolster the country’s war against Russia.“I think people are going to be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” he said in a recent interview with Punchbowl News. “Ukraine is important, but at the same time, it can’t be the only thing they do, and it can’t be a blank check.”Mr. McCarthy’s comments reflected the rising tide of isolationism in the Republican Party, especially in the House, where an increasing number of libertarian-minded conservatives who have adopted former President Donald J. Trump’s “America First” position have vocally opposed authorizing billions of dollars in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as it fights off an unprovoked attack from Russia.That impulse led 57 House Republicans to vote in May against a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine. In the Senate, 11 Republican senators opposed the aid package after Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, forcefully marshaled support for the legislation in his conference.In total, Congress has approved more than $60 billion to Ukraine this year alone by overwhelming margins, the largest amount of military aid the United States has committed to any country in a single year in nearly half a century, since the Vietnam War.Mr. McCarthy, who is in line to be speaker if his party wins control of the House, voted for the aid package in May, as did his top two deputies. His remarks on Tuesday casting doubt on his party’s appetite to send more aid underscored the precarious balance he is attempting as he tries to straddle the rift among Republicans between the traditional, hawkish conservatives and the harder-right, more anti-interventionist members whose support he needs to be elected speaker.The House Republicans who are poised to run the committees with oversight of the war should they win the majority are largely hawks who have backed the aid to Ukraine, indicating that some in the party may be reluctant to turn their backs on Kyiv. And many Democrats have supported the money for Ukraine, suggesting that even if most Republicans were opposed, the House could still muster bipartisan support to approve such aid.Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee, told Bloomberg News on Tuesday in response to Mr. McCarthy’s remarks that there was still “broad bipartisan support” for aiding Ukraine.“We want to ensure that our NATO partners are stepping up to the plate and bearing the burden of the cost,” Mr. McCaul said, adding of Mr. McCarthy, “I think he’s just saying we’re not going to write a blank check without oversight and accountability, which my committee will be providing.”
US Backs Sending 'Multinational Rapid Action Force’ To Haiti - The US has drafted a UN Security Council resolution calling for the deployment of an international force to help the Haitian government quell protests and unrest, The Washington Post reported on Saturday. The Post obtained a copy of the resolution, which calls for “the immediate deployment of a multinational rapid action force.” The draft doesn’t identify specific countries that would take part or detail what their role would be, but it is the clearest sign yet that the US favors some sort of military intervention in Haiti. The draft proposal, which could be formally proposed as soon as Monday, came after UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the creation of an international force to help the Haitian National Police as they deal with an uprising led by armed groups the Haitian government considers gangs.According to the draft resolution, the US is “encouraging the immediate deployment of a multinational rapid action force to support the [Haitian National Police], as recommended in the Secretary General’s letter.”The US resolution singles out Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier, who leads a group known as G9 Family and Allies. Cherizier has blockaded a key fuel terminal in Port-au-Prince and has called for the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who has led the Haitian government since the July 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Moïse was gunned down in his home by a group of mostly Colombian mercenaries, some of whom were former members of Colombia’s military and had been previously trained by the Pentagon. But who ordered the killing has not been solved as the investigation has been stalled. Protests have also broken out in Haiti’s major cities, where demonstrators have blocked roads and are calling for Henry’s resignation. The protests were sparked by the government announcing that it would stop subsidizing fuel.
Biden administration drafts UN resolution for deployment of foreign military forces to Haiti -- The Biden administration has drafted a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution authorizing the deployment of foreign troops to Haiti, according to a report in the Miami Herald. The resolution is the first official confirmation that the US is preparing yet another invasion of the Caribbean nation, which has suffered for over a century from recurring, blood-soaked military interventions by American imperialism and its allies.The draft resolution comes in the wake of direct calls, first from Haiti’s hated, US-installed president, Ariel Henry, and then the UN Secretary-General António Guterres for the dispatch of a “multinational rapid action force” to the island-nation to bolster its repressive police forces, restore bourgeois order and suppress mass popular discontent. “We wish to see our neighbours like the United States, like Canada, take the lead and move fast,” Bocchit Edmond, Haiti’s US ambassador told Reuters Oct. 10. A copy of the US resolution was obtained by the Herald and reportedly confirmed by multiple US and UN officials. The draft comes a few days after Guterres sent a letter to the UNSC calling for military forces be sent to Haiti in the name of combatting “armed gangs,” who are allied with opposing sides of Haiti’s political elite and have waged a campaign of violent terror against the population while gaining a hold over critical infrastructure. The resolution comes amid mass protests that have been ongoing for several weeks involving tens of thousands in the capital Port-au-Prince and other major cities like Cap-Haïtien and Gonaïves. The demonstrations have raised social tensions to a breaking point. Protesters are demanding the resignation of the unelected, imperialist-backed puppet regime of Henry and an end to dire social conditions in the impoverished country, marked by rising hunger and skyrocketing prices for fuel and other basic goods. In recent days, widespread demonstrations flared in opposition to Henry’s request for foreign security forces to help preserve his crumbling regime. Popular opposition among Haiti’s workers and oppressed masses is also directed against the gang syndicates that currently occupy large swathes of the country and have long collaborated with leading government officials in carrying out massacres against the civilian population. The insurgent movement of the Haitian working class and poor is emblematic of developments internationally, where worker unrest has sprung up in many parts of the globe in response to exploitation, rising social inequality and mass death created by the COVID-19 pandemic. This global strike wave has emerged in countless countries, from Argentina and South Africa to Lebanon and the United States. The US and Canada announced Saturday that they had deployed armored vehicles and other military supplies to Haiti’s police, which have had to surrender control of territory, including in much of Port-au-Prince, to powerful gangs. A spokesman for the US military’s Southern Command said the provision of equipment was a joint operation involving the US Air Force and Royal Canadian Air Force. A US State Department statement said the equipment would assist Haiti’s National Police (HNP) “in their fight against criminal actors fomenting violence and disrupting the flow of critically-needed humanitarian assistance.”
US sends armored vehicles to help Haiti fight ‘criminal actors’ -The U.S. and Canada have sent armored vehicles to Haiti after its government called for foreign help in defending against gangs threatening to oust acting prime minister Ariel Henry.Henry’s government faces a mounting political and security crisis after the prime minister last month announced an end to fuel subsidies, spurring crippling shortages and soaring prices.In a statement on Sunday, a State Department spokesperson said that a joint U.S.-Canadian aircraft arrived at the capital city of Port-au-Prince with equipment including tactical and armored vehicles and other supplies.“This equipment will assist (Haiti’s National Police) in their fight against criminal actors who are fomenting violence and disrupting the flow of critically-needed humanitarian assistance, hindering efforts to halt the spread of cholera,” the State Department said.The spokesperson added that the joint initiative will also help train Haitian authorities and local law enforcement in an effort to combat the ongoing wave of crime in the country.The delivery comes after a Haitian gang known as “G9 and Family” last month demanded the resignation of Henry amid growing protests over the rise in petroleum prices.G9 and Family also demanded the government grant amnesty to its members, while also declaring its intention to seek seats in the Haitian parliament, according to the Associated Press.Haiti is still reeling from the assassination of former president Jovenel Moïse more than a year ago and devastating earthquake that rocked the island country soon after. Thousands of Haitian immigrants have fled the country to seek asylum in the U.S. as crime and poverty increase.Local gags have been fighting over territorial control of the country. Combined with the gas shortages, the violence has disrupted hospitals, gas stations, banks, and grocery stores.At a meeting of the Organization of American States summit in Lima, Peru on Friday, Haitian Foreign Minister Jean Victor Geneus called for an “international police force” to help secure the country, according to an Al-Jazeera report.Haiti’s ambassador to the U.S. Bocchit Edmond made a plea for U.S. and Canadian support earlier in the week, according to CBC.“We wish to see our neighbours like the United States, like Canada, take the lead and move fast,” he reportedly said.“If nothing is done quickly, there is a risk of another head of state [being] killed in Haiti,” he added.
US-backed foreign intervention has led to the disaster in Haiti | Pooja Bhatia | The Guardian -What comes first in Haiti: disaster or foreign intervention? The conventional, i.e. first world, wisdom has it that disaster comes first. The underlying assumption is that Haitians cannot manage their own affairs. The government is corrupt or ineffective or both. Its people are ensnared in a “web of progress-resistant cultural influences”, as David Brooks was somehow allowed to opine in The New York Times just after the country’s giant 2010 earthquake. Left alone, Haiti would descend into chaos and humanitarian crisis: disease, violence, death. That’s when Haiti’s so-called international friends – chiefly the US, along with Canada and France – are forced to come to the rescue with their big guns and elite forces. That’s the direction of the thinking today. The international community is deliberating the deployment of a “multinational rapid action force” to Haiti, followed in the medium term by yet another UN peacekeeping mission. Already, the US has sent personnel, armored vehicles and undisclosed “equipment” to aid Haiti’s police in battling a conglomerate of gangs who have taken control of the country. The US may well contribute troops to the rapid action force. Many innocent civilians will be caught in the crossfire, if history is a guide. The view from Haiti is generally different: foreign intervention causes disaster. This idea can be counterintuitive and deeply uncomfortable to Americans, but it has the great virtue of being based on facts. Haiti, after all, was born of the determination of enslaved people to cast off the genocidal yoke of the French, AKA foreign subjugation. It has since suffered numerous invasions and intrusions, including a 19-year occupation by the US, from 1915 to 1934. The US occupation justified itself as being for Haiti’s own good. Its legacies included enriching American elites and laying groundwork for the rise of the Duvalier dictatorship. There is no question that Haiti is in a terrible crisis, possibly the worst in our lifetimes. The gang conglomerate has blocked the country’s main fuel terminal and brought almost everything to a standstill. Nothing functions without fuel. A big water bottling plant temporarily shut down. Hospitals have closed their doors or reduced capacity. The prices of basic commodities, like rice, have soared past most people’s grasp. Earlier this month, the ministry of health announced the reemergence of cholera. A few of my friends who are stuck in Haiti (those with a semblance of means have fled) say they would welcome intervention and the restoration of order. But the narratives the US uses to justify intervention ignore a crucial fact: Haiti has rarely, if ever, been allowed to manage its own affairs. Headlines have reported that Haiti has requested intervention. This is inaccurate. It’s Haiti’s premier, Ariel Henry, who has requested it. Henry more or less appointed himself prime minister following last July’s assassination of President Jovenel Moise. He has never had any sort of constitutional authority and indeed, is implicated in Moïse’s assassination. The people he claims to speak for revile him. His only constituency is outside the country. Over the past 15 months, the US has insisted that the opposition, a remarkably broad-based coalition of civil society leaders, activists and popular organizations, negotiate with him.
Biden Tells Iran Protesters “Keep Fighting” As Tehran Says Unrest Driven By US, Saudis --Iran protests have been persisting and growing fiercer since the September 16 death of 22-year old Mahsa Amini, who had been detained by police in Tehran for not adhering to the country's strict Islamic dress code. The "anti-hijab" protests which are raging and lately taking over university campuses across various cities are now coming under increased international media coverage. Now in their fifth week, the protests and ongoing clashes with security forces have left over 230 Iranians dead, including reportedly with casualties among police as well.Multiple hundreds of demonstrators have also been arrested. Increasingly, Iranian authorities are blaming the Islamic Republic's "enemies" - including the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia - for fomenting what have morphed into raging anti-government unrest. This theme of Tehran is likely to gain more traction among broader swathes of the Iranian population which have by and large remained on the sidelines after on Monday President Joe Biden issued a message of support for the protests...Biden says in unscripted comment that he visited Saudi Arabia and Israel in August to firm up Iran strategy. “Everyone thought I went to the Middle East because of oil, it was because of Iran,” he says. Regime will cite as “proof” America behind protests pic.twitter.com/ibXvCZ3Lqa Biden made the off-the-cuff statements to activists and reporters, describing of his July visit to Saudi Arabia, "Everyone thought I went to the Middle East because of oil, it was because of Iran." Biden praised the "incredible courage" of the protesters, and when asked by an activist to issue a message to Iranians in the streets, he said: "Keeping fighting, we're with you."This past week has seen the first instances of the US president personally issuing such specific support to the anti-regime protests, and it's certainly going to be noticed in Tehran, given officials there have already said the "riots" are a US-backed plot.
U.S. Democrats want tougher response on Saudi Arabia - The Washington Post - In Washington, or at least some corners of it, knives are being sharpened for Saudi Arabia. It’s been almost two weeks since Riyadh and its counterparts in the OPEC Plus cartel moved to raise global oil prices by announcing its largest supply cut in years, no matter the desperate entreaties of the Biden administration. The resulting fallout still smolders in Washington, where many interpreted the decision as a calculated act to humiliate President Biden and undermine his party’s prospects ahead of the upcoming midterm elections — on top of boosting the fossil fuel-subsidized war machine of Russian President Vladimir Putin.In recent days, Democratic lawmakers have touted a series of punitive measures against the kingdom. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) announced legislation last week that would immediately halt all arms sales to Saudi Arabia for one year.“There must be consequences for fleecing the American people in order to support Putin’s unconscionable war,” Khanna said in a statement.In the summer, Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), a former U.S. diplomat,backed Biden’s controversial July trip to Saudi Arabia as a bid to “ensure our client states that depend on our security are on our side.” But earlier this month, he and two other Democrats in the House introduced a billto mandate the removal of U.S. troops and missile systems deployed in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which was also party to the cartel’s production cut.Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, last week urged that U.S. missile systems and batteries committed to help defend the oil infrastructure of the Gulf kingdoms be transferred instead to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks.“Policy decisions have consequences, and these steps would right-size the relationship with Saudi Arabia and help Ukraine,” Murphy said in an emailed statement.Across the Democratic caucus, a lurking dissatisfaction with the United States’ long-standing entanglements with the Saudis exploded into full-bore rage. There remains disquiet over the outsize Saudi role in the attacks of 9/11, a long record of human rights abuses culminating garishly in the abduction and murder of Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi, as well as wariness over Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s partisan affections for Republicans and former president Donald Trump.After Biden’s reticent fist bump with MBS, the OPEC Plus decision wasseen as a deliberate punch in the gut that had to be met with a tough response. The anger has given new life to the so-called NOPEC bill, long-mooted congressional legislation that would make the cartel’s member states subject to antitrust laws. That some lawmakers now believe a bill that could cause further havoc to energy markets has a chance, albeit a slim one, of passing is a sign of the appetite for confrontation with Riyadh. “It’s time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without this alliance with these royal backstabbers,” Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) tweeted.
Campaigners to Biden: ‘Tell Congress to Pass a Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax’ - President Joe Biden used a Wednesday speech at the White House to scold fossil fuel companies for raking in huge profits at the expense of U.S. consumers, who are being gashed by high prices at the pump.But instead of calling for a specific policy solution that would force the industry's hand, Biden asked oil companies to voluntarily stop padding their bottom lines and instead "pass the savings on to consumers. "What can we do about it? Hit Big Oil with a windfall profits tax." "So far, American oil companies are using that windfall, the windfall of profits, to buy back their own stock, passing that money on to their shareholders, not to consumers," the president said. "When the cost of oil comes down, we should see the price at the gas station, at the pump, come down as well. That's how it's supposed to work. But that's not what's happening." The president's latest energy address marked a continuation of his approach to countering fossil fuel industry profiteering thus far, one that has focused more on pleading with oil company executives to do what's best for consumers than aggressively pursuing legislative and executive action to compel fossil fuel giants to constrain prices. Jamie Henn, the director of Fossil Free Media, welcomed Biden's direct call-out of the industry's surging profits and ongoing share buybacks, but added that he now needs to "tell Congress to pass a Big Oil windfall profits tax!" The Stop the Oil Profiteering campaign echoed that message. "The price gouging from Big Oil is unacceptable and that's exactly why we need a Big Oil windfall profits tax—the most simple first step to stop this profiteering and deliver immediate relief to working people across the country," the campaign said. While the Biden White House has reportedly mulled supporting a windfall profits tax in private, the administration has yet to endorse legislation that Democrats in the House and Senate have introduced and forcefully advocated in recent months. Survey data has shown that a windfall profits tax targeting oil giants is massively popular with the U.S. public, which has signaled it wants lawmakers and political candidates to crack down on corporate profiteering that is driving up prices across the economy. With the midterms approaching, campaigners and strategists have implored the Biden administration to get behind a windfall profits tax as part of its economic messaging, particularly as Republicans hammer away on inflation attacks even as their party threatens to make the problem worse by pushing giveaways for the rich.In a recent memo, Democratic strategist Mike Lux argued that "there is not a reason in the world Democrats need to be defensive or mushy about their plan for inflation," noting that a "populist message on the issue has been tested repeatedly by the smartest pollsters in the business... and it works." "Big oil, food, shipping, healthcare, and real estate companies have been making record profits over the last two years," Lux implored Democratic candidates to say. "I will crack down on price gouging, but to be clear—my opponent has proposed nothing to combat this abuse."
NOPEC Bill Would Mean the End Of Aramco and OPEC as We Know Them - Whatever else might or might not be said about former President Trump, he knew a deal was a deal, and the first thing he did when it was evident just after the 2014/2016 Oil Price War that the new-found OPEC+ was intent on driving up oil prices to levels that were damaging to the U.S. economy and to Trump’s own re-election chances, was to send a message to King Salman of Saudi Arabia, effectively that if the King was going to undermine the deal then the U.S. would not honour its side of the bargain either. Trump laid it out: “I said, ‘King, we’re protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military, you have to pay’.” This came shortly after a similar comment from Trump in a speech before the United Nations General Assembly: “OPEC and OPEC nations are, as usual, ripping off the rest of the world, and I don’t like it. Nobody should like it,’ he said. ‘We defend many of these nations for nothing, and then they take advantage of us by giving us high oil prices. Not good. We want them to stop raising prices. We want them to start lowering prices and they must contribute substantially to military protection from now on.” This threat of removal of all U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia was made by Trump once more, this time when OPEC+ was looking to push down oil prices to dangerous levels for the U.S. shale oil sector by launching the 2020 Oil Price War, when he personally telephoned MbS on 2 April and specifically told MbS that unless OPEC+ started cutting oil production immediately then he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia. In addition, it was made very clear by Trump that from that point onwards he expected that the next time the Saudis tried to destroy the U.S. shale sector it would be the end of the 1945 Agreement, with no further warning, and that U.S. military would be withdrawn straight away. MbS certainly deigned to take that telephone call, it should be noted. By using this threat of withdrawing all the U.S.’s military support for Saudi Arabia, former President Trump was able to establish the ‘Trump Oil Price Range’ of US$40-75 per barrel of Brent for the vast majority of the time he was in office. The second highly effective method that Trump’s West Wing was able to use to stop Saudi Arabia from damaging the economic and political interests of the U.S. and its allies, was to threaten implementation of the ‘No Oil Producing or Exporting Cartels’ (NOPEC) bill. This ‘Damoclean Sword’ of legislation has a broad mandate, making it illegal to artificially cap oil (and gas) production or to set prices. Clearly, fixing oil pricing is the very reason why OPEC was established in 1960, and it is part of its written mandate. Saudi Arabia has been OPEC’s de facto leader from its creation that year, and Saudi Aramco is the prime vehicle through which Saudi Arabia’s production and pricing strategies (and those of OPEC) are implemented. Nobody from the Saudi side when the Aramco IPO was first announced seemed to have understood that there was a major legal issue in this context from both the U.S. and U.K. perspective – given stringent and rigorously enforced anti-trust (or anti-monopoly) regulations on both sides – and this was one of the key reasons why no serious investor in these countries wanted to invest in it. With Aramco being the key instrument used to manage the oil market by the Saudis, even though it is not directly involved in making the policy, the anti-trust legislation of the U.S. and U.K. can point to Aramco as being collusive in price-fixing through adjusting output to manage oil prices. If and when the Bill is enacted, then Saudi Aramco would either have to be broken up into much smaller constituent companies that are not capable of influencing the oil price, thus reducing the company’s net worth to zero overnight, or face the full force of the U.S.’s antitrust laws, and similar laws from all of the U.S.’s allies. In effect, Saudi Aramco’s products and services would face exactly the same net effect as Russian oil and gas companies are facing now. To wit: all U.S. dollar trading in all Aramco products and services would be liable for immediate suspension pending review of anti-trust regulations in the U.S. and all its allies, after which all such U.S. dollar-centric activities could be banned. In addition to all of this, the NOPEC Bill immediately removes all sovereign immunity that presently exists in U.S. courts for OPEC as a group and for its individual member states – including, Saudi Arabia. According to legal sources in Washington familiar with the legislation and spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, this would open up Saudi’s US$1 trillion or so of assets in the U.S. to be seized in lawsuits relating to a range of allegations, including Riyadh’s role in the ‘9/11’ terrorist attacks on the U.S.
US 'oil for security' formula faces setback as Saudi Arabia shows interest in joining BRICS - Amid an intensifying spat with the US on oil production, Saudi Arabia has expressed its "desire" to join BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), a move Chinese experts view as a setback for Washington's "oil for security" approach toward the Middle East and its increasingly reckless interference in other countries' affairs. Citing South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa's local radio station ABC reported on Tuesday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, who is also Saudi Arabia's prime minister, "did express Saudi Arabia's desire to be part of BRICS," and Saudi Arabia is "not the only country" seeking BRICS membership. Ramaphosa paid a state visit to Saudi Arabia last week, during which the two countries signed agreements and memorandums of understanding worth about $15 billion, Reuters reported. South Africa will hold the rotating BRICS presidency in 2023. Saudi Arabia's reported interest in joining BRICS comes as the country is locked in a diplomatic spat with the US over oil production. Earlier in October, the Saudi-led OPEC+ announced that it will cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, which will mean higher gasoline prices this autumn and winter, weeks before the US midterm elections. The Biden administration, which has invested massive political resources to halt the move that could threaten the Democrats' dim hopes in the election, later slammed the decision and called it "shortsighted," according to a CNN report. A senior US official said on Sunday that US President Joe Biden has "no plans" to meet with the Saudi Crown Prince at next month's G20 summit in Indonesia, Aljazeera reported. Meanwhile, Saudi officials have made it clear that they would not take orders from the US. The CEO of the Future Investment Initiative, the organizer of the "Davos of the Desert" Saudi investment conference, said on Monday that US government officials will not be invited to attend the event at the end of this month, according to media reports. The US wanted Saudi Arabia to listen to its orders and meet its demands, but the fact proved that Washington has overplayed its hand, a Beijing-based international relations expert told the Global Times on Wednesday, requesting anonymity. The US is completely utilitarian in its relations with Saudi Arabia, the expert said, adding that "the idea of joining BRICS shows Saudi Arabia's growing autonomy in its diplomacy with Washington." It was not a difficult choice for the Saudis to make, given the US' domestic turmoil and the instability of the country's policies, the expert said, noting that "joining BRICS will also protect Saudi Arabia's own energy interests in a substantive way, rather than being a card to be used by others." BRICS is a multilateral mechanism that brings together emerging market economies and embodies cultural diversity, political inclusiveness and economic mutual benefit. Being a member of BRICS would multiply Saudi Arabia's influence in global economic affairs as well as political and security affairs, analysts said. "If Saudi Arabia joins BRICS, it would be a promotion to the Middle East countries to strengthen their ties with BRICS countries and weaken the intervention and influence of the US in the area," the Beijing-based expert said.
Biden Admin To Announce Another 15 Million Barrel SPR Release Before Midterms - Oil markets are drifting sideways this morning after the Biden administration plans to release 10-15 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a bid to suppress gasoline and diesel prices at the pump ahead of the next month's congressional elections, Bloomberg said citing people familiar with the matter. President Biden's upcoming announcement of up to 15 million barrels, one of the largest ever, comes as 180 million barrels have been drained from the nation's emergency stockpile since May. For context, the Biden administration has cut the SPR to a record low 22 days worth of supply... That is not what you want to see when liberal war hawks are gunning for nuclear war. On Sunday, White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein said Biden was still mulling over the final SPR release figures. He told Fox News the reserve is 50% full. "The fact is there is capacity to use the SPR to deal with some of the energy shocks we're seeing in the world. But I'm not saying we will. That's up to the president to decide, he hasn't made that decision yet," Bernstein said. Last Tuesday, David Turk, the Energy Department's deputy secretary, said, "We still have some additional ability to use the SPR over the coming weeks and months as needed." Turk said the administration was willing to move forward with an export ban on refined products in response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production.But while the Biden admin was reluctant to pursue an export ban, a move that would send oil prices higher over the long run, it had fewer qualms about potentially extending its SPR drain.Sources told Bloomberg White House officials have been discussing with oil companies, including ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp., about what to expect in future SPR releases while encouraging crude production and boosting the capacity of refined fuels. The US' only problem is that refining capacity has been reduced over the years, and also, there's seasonal maintenance underway. We outlined in the summer: US Refining Bottleneck The Culprit For Your Gas Pump Pains."The administration has a small window ahead of midterms to try to lower fuel prices, or at least demonstrate that they are trying," one of Reuters' sources familiar with the White House deliberations. "The White House did not like $4 a gallon gas, and it has signaled that it will take action to prevent that again," they said.
Biden administration to tap oil reserve again ahead of midterms - The Biden administration will release 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in December in a bid to drive fuel prices down, senior Biden administration officials said Tuesday.The release will account for the last of the 180 million barrels President Joe Biden authorized the Energy Depart to disburse in March, leaving another 400 million barrels in the reserve, the officials said. The administration will also look into a possible new authorization to ship more barrels after that depending on market conditions, the officials said.The government “remains very able and very vigilant,“ one of the officials said on a background call with reporters. “If we need to deal with additional challenges with supply, with affordability, we will have additional opportunity with the SPR if we need to do more sales into the future beyond“ December.The officials pushed back on questions about whether announcing the December move was redundant with March’s approval, saying that “it was not a given“ that they would have carried it out if the oil market had stabilized. The administration will also soon set up a process to purchase oil from companies to refill the SPR at a price of $67 to $72 a barrel, the officials said. That level is more than $10 below current benchmark prices.“In terms of protecting taxpayer funding [and] being responsible stewards of the SPR, you want to sell when the prices are high and you want to buy when they’re low,“ the official said. “And we wanted to put the marker out there at this point that we will buy when they’re low.“President Joe Biden will speak about gas prices on Wednesday, White House chief of staff Ron Klain said in a tweet.The move comes as the administration has been meeting with oil company executives to negotiate ways to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections in which inflation, partly driven by high energy prices, will be a key issue.The administration is also considering another release that would be separate from the previously authorized one, though a decision hasn’t been made on whether to do so, the two people said. “It’s on the table, but they haven’t made a go or no-go decision,” one of the people said.The administration also intends to announce plans to refill the reserve, two people familiar with the talks said. Details such as how much the administration would pay for the oil and when it would buy were still being worked out in one-on-one meetings with industry representatives, the people said.
Biden To Unveil Cunning New Plan To Lower Gas Prices- Drain Even More From The SPR -- As was leaked earlier today, President Biden will address the nation tomorrow to explain his next cunning plan to lower gas prices for the average American (except those in California) since OPEC+ snubbed his delay-til-after-the-midterms begging-bowl and decided to cut production last week. His cunning new plan, we hear you ask? Well it's simple - more of the same: blame big oil (gouging and profiteering), blame little oil (greedy local gas station owners), blame the Saudis (who are now Putin puppets)... and drain more of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Wall Street Journal reports, citing official sources, that central to the president's address will be a decision for the Energy Department to go ahead and sell the last roughly 15 million of 180 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve he had authorized for sale back in March. Biden also plans to call on the Energy Department to be prepared for more sales from what’s left of about 400 million barrels in the reserve if Russia or others disrupt world markets, according to the White House. The SPR is already at its lowest level since 1984... ...and as the chart shows only 130mm barrels above its lows at inception of around 270mm barrels. However, as we have noted too many times to remember, the problem is not a lack of crude oil but a lack of refining capacity... Brian Milne, product manager, editor, and analyst at DTN, told MarketWatch: "U.S. policy pushing away from oil consumption has led to refinery transitions to renewables, or outright closures. This trend accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic," And as far as the belief that the previous SPR drainage lowered the gas price, Milne highlighted that the bigger drivers lowering US gasoline prices, however, were "sharply lower demand from China amid its zero-COVID policy that has stymied economic activity, and reduced transportation demand as millions of citizens were either locked down or had other restrictions reduce their mobility." Since President Biden has been in The White House, 230mm barrels of crude have been drained from the SPR and gasoline prices for the average American are up $1.66... Bear in mind that the level of the SPR is now at a record low around just 22 days of supply (and will go even further down should the latest plan come into place)...Cuts from OPEC and Russia, combined with a higher demand from China as its economy emerges from pandemic lockdowns, would lead to new shortfalls in oil supply, according to Neil Beveridge, senior energy analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. That could push crude prices back to $120 a barrel by the end of 2023, his team forecast. But it gets better (or worse), since Bloomberg reports that the administration plans to initiate purchases when West Texas Intermediate crude prices are at or below $67 to $72 per barrel, according to a senior administration official.Just who do they think will sell them oil at that price?And while we are doing thought experiments, what's to stop OPEC+ from cutting output by another 1MM per day for a year and forcing Biden to drain the entire SPR? Inevitably leading to a massive new demand to refill the 'emergency' reserve, sending prices soaring? Perhaps that why oil is starting to catch a bid this evening?
Biden looks to use SPR to put collar on oil prices - President Joe Biden is looking to use more crude withdrawals and purchases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to target a "good price" for consumers and producers. Biden today ordered a 15mn bl crude sale from the SPR that will mark the end of a record 180mn bl drawdown he ordered in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But he said he was ready to order more drawdowns this winter if prices spike, or to buy crude to replenish the SPR if prices are at or below the $67-72/bl range. Biden believes the ability to buy and sell crude will moderate prices and offer producers more certainty to invest. "Companies can invest to ramp up production now with confidence they'll be able to sell their oil to us at that price in the future," Biden said. "Refining and refilling the reserve at $70/bl is a good price for companies, and it's a good price for taxpayers." The White House's policy approach envisions repurposing the SPR, which holds 405.1mn bl of crude and is nearly 57pc full, as a tool to moderate oil price volatility in the coming years. In addition to buying crude for immediate delivery, the US Energy Department has separately finalized a rule that will allow it to buy fixed-price crude for the SPR for future delivery at $67-72/bl, which it says will shore up demand for oil when prices are lower. "Companies will know in the US that there's a sort of floor, putting there at around $70 that will allow them a certainty for investments today to increase production," US top energy envoy Amos Hochstein said in a televised interview. But oil industry officials worry the latest emergency crude release from the SPR, along with other SPR sales and purchases, create the risk of masking valuable price signals in the energy markets. "The SPR was never meant to serve as a substitute for actual crude oil production," American Fuels & Petrochemical Manufacturers chief executive Chet Thompson said. "At best, SPR releases are a short-term fix, not a long-term solution or signal of stability to a market craving reassurance." Biden's decision to release an additional 15mn bl from the SPR comes at a time of heightened uncertainty in global energy markets. Russian president Vladimir Putin is threatening not to sell crude to countries that impose a price cap that is scheduled to begin on 5 December. Opec+ countries earlier this month cut crude output targets by 2mn b/d for November. Republicans say that Biden is using SPR for political purposes to try to ease fuel prices before the midterm elections on 8 November. The SPR is at its lowest level since 1984, with 233mn bl of crude withdrawn in Biden's term. Biden is depleting the SPR to "cover up his anti-American, ‘rush-to-green' environmental agenda," US House Energy and Commerce Committee ranking member Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Washington) said. The White House says the latest SPR release was not politically motivated but part of a long-term effort to support supplies after Russia's invasion. Biden said his administration has "not slowed or stopped US oil production," which is now averaging 12mn b/d, or about 1mn b/d more than when he took office, and urged oil companies to increase output further.
Biden Establishes Oil Price Floor, Wants Industry to Keep Pumping – President Joe Biden will announce Wednesday another sale of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The sale is the last of the 180-million-barrel withdrawal authorized by the president earlier this year and is intended to ease further the soaring price of oil following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But that is not the big news from the announcement.The president has authorized the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to repurchase oil for the SPR at a fixed price for future delivery. This is a big deal.The SPR has a capacity of more than 700 million barrels and had more than 400 million barrels in storage as of last week. The 15 million barrels Biden has authorized the DOE to sell will be available to buyers in December.The DOE will now be able to enter contracts to buy U.S. crude at a floor price of $67 to $72 a barrel, ostensibly to replenish the SPR:This repurchase approach will protect taxpayers and help create certainty around future demand for crude oil. That will encourage firms to invest in production right now, helping to improve U.S. energy security and bring down energy prices that have been driven up by Putin’s war in Ukraine.In essence, the DOE is guaranteeing a price floor in exchange for certainty or, at least, less volatility. The White House fact sheet noted that U.S. crude oil production has reached nearly 12 million barrels a day, and that total will rise next year. But there is a catch:However, a number of industry participants have suggested that, even with today’s high prices, they are concerned about investing in production when prices could fall in the future. … DOE has finalized a first-of-its-kind rule that enables it to enter into fixed-price contracts with suppliers, through a competitive bid process, to repurchase oil for future delivery windows. This new authority will shore up demand for oil when supply is less uncertain and prices are anticipated to be lower.While not exactly a gift to oil producers, it is unlikely that any will object to the offer. According to an IHS Markit review in September of 2021, the average break-even price for a barrel of Permian Basin crude was about $46 per barrel of Brent crude (Brent typically has a higher market price than the West Texas Intermediate price of Permian crude). The global average break-even price was between $40 and $50 a barrel. According to an IHS Markit study, “most sources of global crude oil supply projected until 2040 can break even below $50/barrel Brent crude in constant 2020 dollar terms.”
Macron Accuses US of Trade ‘Double Standard’ Amid Energy Crunch - -- French President Emmanuel Macron slammed US trade and energy policies for creating “a double standard” with Europe as resentment builds over the economic price the continent is paying over Russia’s war in Ukraine. “The North American economy is making choices for the sake of attractiveness, which I respect, but they create a double standard” with lower energy prices domestically while selling natural gas to Europe at record prices, Macron said at a news conference in Brussels following a meeting of European Union leaders. “In addition they allow state aid going to up to 80% on some sectors while it’s banned here -- you get a double standard,” he added. “It comes down to the sincerity of transatlantic trade,” he added. The EU has been chafing over the US stimulus package known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides subsidies for electric cars made in North America and provides what European officials say is unfair support for green economy. The 44-year-old Macron will be hitting these points hard when he visit Washington D.C. for a state visit in early December. That’s a bit more than a year after the bilateral relationship suffered a major blow when Australia dropped a mega deal to buy French submarines in favor of nuclear-powered submarines from the US. France briefly recalled its ambassador to the U.S., but ties improved after Macron met with Joe Biden in Rome on the sideline of a G-20 summit. Biden pledged to support France in its fight against terrorism in the Sahel, and acknowledged the importance of strengthening EU defense, a long-time battle for Macron. The US and Europe have also forged an extremely close working relationship in responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But cracks are starting to emerge. On Friday, Macron called out US and Norway as energy producers who make “the real superprofits” benefitting from “geopolitical war unearned income.” He said he has discussed the topic “in a friendly way” with his US and Norwegian counterparts. During a parliament debate, French finance minister Bruno Le Maire criticized the US for selling liquefied natural gas to European companies at “four times the prices at which it sells it” domestically. He was echoing previous comments by Macron, who has said that EU should join with Asian economies to demand that the US and Norway show greater friendship by selling gas at lower prices.
What upcoming US elections could mean for the Inflation Reduction Act, FERC and US energy policy - Democrats are fresh off a big clean energy policy win, leveraging control of Congress to pass the Inflation Reduction Act and its $369 billion in incentives for renewables, energy storage, electric vehicles and more. But with most political odds makers expecting Republicans to retake the House in next month’s midterms, and some seeing chances for the Senate as well, there is now speculation that Republicans may attempt to weaken the landmark law.While repealing the Inflation Reduction Act may not be possible, there are ways Republicans could mute its potential impacts, experts said Thursday in a discussion about the upcoming federal elections and their impacts on the energy sector, hosted by S&P Global Intelligence.“There's actually little that can be done to claw back the funding. ... The money has largely left Congress' purview,” said Tom Hassenboehler, a partner at the climate think tank Coefficient Group. But if Republicans retake the House, “there's going to be an immediate shift towards investigations and oversight.”Republicans will see opportunities to investigate the “unprecedented” funding at the U.S. Department of Energy, Bureau of Land Management and Environmental Protection Agency, he said, which could shift the tone in the White House.In a divided government scenario, the Biden administration would be less likely to push ambitious policy proposals, Hassenboehler said. It also opens the door for Republicans to play a larger role in influencing the “regulatory reform and market reform opportunities necessary in executing some of these programs,” he said.Should Republicans retake the Senate, that could impact the makeup of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said Ari Peskoe, director of Harvard Law School's Electricity Law Initiative.FERC Chairman Richard Glick’s term “technically ran out in June,” Peskoe noted. The Democrat was nominated by President Donald Trump and Biden has indicated he plans to renominate him. Republican Commissioner James Danly, also nominated by Trump, will see his term end in June, while Commissioner Allison Clements, a Democrat, is slated to serve until June 2024.Glick has opposed minimum offer price rules during his tenure, saying they interfere with state energy policies, has pressed for transmission reform and has worked to open wholesale markets to distributed energy resources. “If the Senate is in Republican control, that might be the end, potentially the end, of Richard Glick at FERC,” Peskoe said. For Clements and Danly, it is possible a deal could be struck in the Senate for both to continue at the commission.
Republicans plan to torpedo key Biden policies as polls predict midterm victory - A standoff over the debt ceiling. Aid to Ukraine on the chopping block. And impeachment proceedings against homeland security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas – or perhaps even president Joe Biden himself. With polls indicating they have a good shot of winning a majority in the House of Representatives in the 8 November midterms, top Republican lawmakers have in recent weeks offered a preview what they might do with their resurgent power, and made clear they have their sights set on key aspects of the Biden administration’s policies at home and abroad. an interview with Punchbowl News that if Congress is going to approve an increase in the amount the federal government can borrow – as it’s expected to need to by sometime next year – Republicans are going to want an agreement to cut spending in return.“You can’t just continue down the path to keep spending and adding to the debt,” said McCarthy, who is likely to be elevated to speaker of the house in a Republican led-chamber. “And if people want to make a debt ceiling [for a longer period of time], just like anything else, there comes a point in time where, okay, we’ll provide you more money, but you got to change your current behavior.”Asked if he might demand that Social Security and Medicare, the two massive federal retirement and healthcare benefit programs that arenearing insolvency, be reformed as part of debt ceiling negotiations, McCarthy replied that he would not “predetermine” anything.But the California lawmaker warned that members of his caucus were starting to question the money Washington was sending to Ukraine to help it fend off Russia’s invasion. “Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do and it can’t be a blank check,” he told Punchbowl.Then there’s the question of if Republicans will choose to exercise the House’s powers of impeachment – as they did against Bill Clinton in 1998, and as Democrats did to Donald Trump in 2019 and 2021.The prime target appears to be Mayorkas, whom Republicans have pilloried amid an uptick in arrivals of migrants at the United States’ border with Mexico. Yet another target could be Biden himself – as Jim Banks, chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee, which crafts policy for the party, suggested on Thursday.Political realities may pose an obstacle to McCarthy and his allies’ ability to see their plans through. High inflation and Biden’s low approval ratings have given them momentum to retake the House, but their chances of winning a majority in the Senate are seen as a toss-up. Even if they did win that chamber, they’re unlikely to have the two-thirds majority necessary to convict Biden, Mayorkas, or whomever else they intend to impeach – or even the numbers to overcome Democratic filibusters of any legislation they try to pass.
Kevin McCarthy weighs future of special committee on climate change - When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) created a special committee to examine climate change in 2019, the panel's days seemed numbered.If Republicans regained control of the House, many observers assumed, they would immediately scrap the Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, since the GOP has historically opposed ambitious measures to tackle global warming.But House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who hopes to become speaker if Republicans pick up enough seats in the midterms, has not yet decided whether to keep the committee, according to three people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private discussions.Some Republican lawmakers, including Rep. Garret Graves (La.), who would become chair of the committee, have privately urged McCarthy to keep the panel, according to one of the individuals.If the panel does exist in the new Congress, it would likely look dramatically different and focus on policies scientists warn would exacerbate not ease the climate crisis. The committee would probably focus, in part, on boosting America's oil and gas production, despite the scientific consensus that the world needs to rapidly phase out fossil fuels to avert a climate catastrophe.And the panel would probably have a different name, such as the Select Committee on Energy Security and Independence, that does not contain the word “climate,” the people familiar with the matter said.The fact that McCarthy might be open to keeping the committee, even with less of a climate focus, signals that GOP leadership recognizes the value of carving out a Republican agenda on environmental issues, said George David Banks, who served as a White House climate adviser under former president Donald Trump.“It's in the GOP's interest to maintain some form of the committee to help educate the American public on the advantages of the Republican approach on climate, energy and economic security policy,” Banks said.Marty Hall, the former Republican staff director for the Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, noted that it's still early for GOP leadership to be deciding the committee's fate.“It's a little premature because the speaker is the one who picks select committees,” Hall said. “You really don't want to have that conversation until after the election.”A spokesperson for McCarthy declined to comment, while a spokesperson for Graves did not respond to a request for comment.
Democrats passed a huge climate bill. Now they’re talking oil. -Democrats’ messaging war over high gasoline prices is overshadowing one of their hardest-fought legislative achievements — the climate bill that President Joe Biden signed just two months ago.The pivot is especially glaring in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire, where Democratic Senate candidates facing an electorate of disgruntled motorists are trying to shift voters’ ire to the oil industry. Some are also attacking their Republican opponents for alleged coziness with fossil fuel companies, or they’re expressing newfound enthusiasm for domestic oil and gas production.In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman has called for an end to oil companies’ “price gouging bullshit” and suggested prosecuting CEOs of businesses caught inflating prices. In Nevada, a new Democratic ad supporting Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto accuses her Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt, of doing the bidding of oil and gas companies as the state’s attorney general.The tack is a contrast from 2020, when Democrats including Biden jockeyed with each other to propose sweeping plans for curtailing the long-term threat of global warming. It also reflects Democratic nervousness that Republicans may succeed in getting voters to blame Biden’s climate policies for the short-term plague of inflated fuel prices — no matter that the U.S. remains the world’s largest oil and natural gas producer.“It’s a lot easier for Democrats to say industry is at fault for high prices than it is to explain how climate policies have not raised prices,” said Kevin Book, managing director of the research firm ClearView Energy, which advises financial investors and corporate strategists. “Politicians usually can’t change prices very much, but they can deflect blame quickly.”On Wednesday, Biden touted his latest plan to release more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — and to purchase oil in the future to refill the reserve — while calling on oil companies to hike production.“You are sitting on record profits and we are giving you more certainty to invest in production now,” Biden said, directing his comments at oil companies. “You should be using these record breaking profits … to bring down the price at the pump,” he added.While the president has sounded this theme for much of the past year,accusing oil and gas companies of “padding their profits,” the White House has intensified its rhetoric in recent days as gasoline prices have risen again after a summer of declines. This rhetorical maneuvering lessens the amount of time Democrats can spend boasting about their $700 billion-plus climate and health care bill,H.R. 5376 (117), a potentially transformative piece of legislation that promises to retool the U.S. economy and confront the danger of global warming.
Ahead of the Midterms, Energy Lobbyists Plan for a Republican House - — Oil and gas industry lobbyists, anticipating that Republicans could take control of the House in the midterm elections, are already working behind the scenes on Capitol Hill to push back against what they consider the Biden administration’s anti-fossil-fuel agenda. The American Gas Association is helping to lead the charge, taking aim in particular at a program that encourages homeowners to replace furnaces and stoves that use natural gas with electric-powered devices in the name of fighting climate change. A top lobbyist at the powerful trade association told other gas industry executives at a conference late last month that the organization was preparing to team up with House Republicans to intensify oversight of the Energy Department, recalling Obama-era investigations by Republicans in Congress into Solyndra, a solar panel company that went bankrupt after receiving a federal loan guarantee. Their hope is to undercut a $4.5 billion program that will give rebates worth as much as $14,000 per household to low- and moderate-income families to install electric-powered heat pumps, water heaters, induction stoves and other devices that would in many cases replace appliances that use natural gas. The program is intended to improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions from burning natural gas. But the gas industry considers it a major threat that could lead millions of families to drop natural gas as a home-heating source. The maneuvering by the lobbyists is an early example of how the influence industry is beginning to develop new strategies for the possibility that one or both chambers in Congress come under Republican control after the midterms. With polling suggesting that Republicans have an especially good chance of capturing the House, trade associations, lobbyists and other special interests are honing plans to shape legislation and oversight to their advantage. “Republicans are expected to retake the House of Representatives, and they are champing at the bit to do some oversight to try to change the law where they can,” Allison Cunningham, the gas association’s top lobbyist, said at a conference in Minneapolis with other gas industry executives last month, according to a recording of the event. Representative Bill Johnson, Republican of Ohio and a member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, said in an interview that he had been discussing the issues with the gas industry. He said he was eager to try to elevate them in the new Congress starting in January. “We are supposed to be looking at energy efficiency, not social re-engineering,” said Mr. Johnson, who represents a part of rural southeastern Ohio that is a major source of natural gas. “This is an attempt by the department to pursue a rush to green agenda under the guise of efficiency standards.”
Texas Sheriff Declares Undocumented Migrants "Crime Victims" To Secure Visas - Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar made national headlines by opening a criminal investigation into the recent flights arranged by Florida of undocumented migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. I have previously written about the dubious claims of kidnapping and human trafficking made by figures like Hillary Clinton.Now, however, Salazar is certifying the roughly 50 individuals as “crime victims” despite the lack of any criminal charges in order to qualify them for visas. While this is clearly not human trafficking, Salazar is working with immigration advocates to use a law designed to protect victims of human trafficking and other crimes, even before any such charge is brought by prosecutors.The move could be denounced as itself an inducement, even a political exploitation, of migrants who must cooperate with an investigation to qualify. Salazar opened a criminal investigation into Governor DeSantis based on the allegation that the Venezuelans were “lured under false premises” to leave the Migrant Resource Center in Bexar County to fly to Florida. Three filed a complaint against the state. Florida has responded with signed waivers by the migrants.While no criminal charges have been filed, Salazar is working with Massachusetts immigration advocates seeking to secure “U visas” for the migrants based on their alleged status as victims of crime or witnesses to criminal acts. Given the small percentage of the migrants who joined the initial lawsuit, the inducement of the U Visa program could change the situation.In order to qualify, the migrants must claim that, being given free passage to the East Coast, qualified as “substantial physical or mental abuse.” That would be highly challengeable, but it would be up to the Biden Administration.Florida could object that Salazar is himself inducing the participation of the migrants by certifying U Visa for cooperating with the investigation. While he is suggesting that all 50 will be declared crime victims, they might be induce to support the claims to qualify under the program.
False coronavirus claim goes viral before experts can respond - The Washington Post -On Tuesday morning, a Fox News contributor claimed on Twitter that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was set to mandate that schoolchildren get coronavirus vaccines. By Tuesday evening, the claim was being repeated by the nation’s most popular cable news show, and had been amplified to millions more on social media.“The CDC is about to add the Covid vaccine to the childhood immunization schedule, which would make the vax mandatory for kids to attend school,” host Tucker Carlson tweeted, sharing a segment from his show that has been viewed more than 1.5 million times online.But the claim was wrong: The CDC cannot mandate that schoolchildren receive vaccines, a decision left up to states and jurisdictions, the agency and multiple public health officials said. The initial tweet by Nicole Saphier, a radiologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, also misconstrued a planned meeting of CDC advisers, who voted Wednesday to add coronavirus vaccines to the federal Vaccines for Children (VFC), a safety-net program that offers the shots at no cost. A separate meeting set for Thursday would address the agency’s immunization schedule for children.Public health experts said there is a legitimate debate over whether schoolchildren should be required to be vaccinated against the coronavirus — but the incendiary and erroneous claim by the Fox News personalities is the latest example of how critics can twist the facts about the CDC and the coronavirus, potentially contributing to lower vaccination rates, fading trust in federal health officials and other consequences for public health.“This is an all new level of dangerous misinformation,” Jerome M. Adams, who served as U.S. surgeon general during the Trump administration and as Indiana’s top health official, wrote in a text message to The Washington Post. “It could both harm kids (by derailing the VFC program, which helps disadvantaged children access vaccines) and endanger health officials (due to angry misinformed parents). We need to be able to have honest conversations about pros and cons of vaccinating children, without resorting to blatant misinformation.”The episode also illustrates how health-care misinformation can rapidly take hold, particularly around the coronavirus vaccine and fueled by many Americans’ frustrations and confusion with pandemic policies. But public health experts often feel stymied in their response, uncertain when to engage with false claims spreading virally. And when officials do weigh in, they are often constrained by their more deliberate, sometimes bureaucratic processes.
CDC corrects conservative claim: They can recommend, not mandate COVID vaccines in schools - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week pushed back on a claim made by Fox News' Tucker Carlson, who said on his show that a CDC decision was likely coming to force kids to get COVID-19 vaccines in order to attend school.But that's not technically within the CDC's authority, as the CDC pointed out in a rare tweet on Wednesday correcting a recent segment by Carlson, who has a history of criticizing COVID vaccine policy or sharing incorrect information about the shots.Twitter also included a disclaimer along with the video from his show.Carlson had claimed Tuesday that at an upcoming meeting of the CDC's advisory committee, the agency was "expected to" update the list of routine childhood immunizations and include the COVID-19 vaccine, which would soon mean that kids "will not be able to attend school without taking the COVID shot. But the CDC clarified that its meeting, scheduled for Thursday, was a broader annual gathering to adjust and update the slate of vaccines doctors should recommend to their patients, from adults down to children, and that the list of vaccines does not dictate what requirements schools put into place."States establish vaccine requirements," the CDC wrote in response to Carlson's segment.The decision on whether schools require the COVID vaccine -- which data shows has become increasingly politicized across the country -- cannot be decided at the federal level by the CDC. It's made at the local level, and some local Republican figures quickly voiced opposition to their states adopting the recommendations.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky tests positive for COVID-19 month after getting updated booster shot - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Saturday that Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky had tested positive for COVID-19.She is experiencing mild symptoms and is up to date with her vaccines."Consistent with CDC guidelines, she is isolating at home and will participate in her planned meetings virtually. CDC senior staff and close contacts have been informed of her positive test and are taking appropriate action to monitor their health," the CDC said in an emailed statement.In September, the director received her bivalent, omicron-specific COVID-19 booster shot.
Judge dismisses effort to halt student loan relief plan . — A federal judge on Thursday dismissed an effort by six Republican-led states to block the Biden administration's plan to forgive student loan debt for tens of millions of Americans. U.S. District Judge Henry Autrey in St. Louis wrote that because the six states — Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina — failed to establish they had standing, "the Court lacks jurisdiction to hear this case." Suzanne Gage, spokeswoman for Nebraska Attorney General Doug Peterson, said the states will appeal. She said in a statement that the states "continue to believe that they do in fact have standing to raise their important legal challenges." Democratic President Joe Biden announced in August that his administration would cancel up to $20,000 in education debt for huge numbers of borrowers. The announcement immediately became a major political issue ahead of the November midterm elections. The states' lawsuit is among a few that have been filed. Earlier Thursday, Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett rejected an appeal from a Wisconsin taxpayers group seeking to stop the debt cancellation program. Barrett, who oversees emergency appeals from Wisconsin and neighboring states, did not comment in turning away the appeal from the Brown County Taxpayers Association. The group wrote in its Supreme Court filing that it needed an emergency order because the administration could begin canceling outstanding student debt as soon as Sunday.
GOP states' challenge to student debt relief plan dismissed -A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by six Republican-led states challenging President Biden's student-loan forgiveness plan, finding the states failed to show they'd be directly harmed. U.S. District Judge Henry Edward Autrey in Missouri on Thursday rejected the states' request to put the plan on hold. The White House officially opened applications this month for qualified borrowers to receive as much as $20,000 in debt relief.Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina sued in September, arguing the president doesn't have the authority to grant widespread forgiveness of student loans. They also claimed the plan would pose financial harm, with Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina arguing they'll lose future tax revenue — a claim the judge rejected."These future lost tax revenues are merely speculative," Autrey said in the 19-page opinion. "Moreover, there is nothing imminent about what may happen several years in the future."The Biden administration says it has the legal authority to cancel the debts and that the states lack the legal standing to challenge the plan, because changes to the proposal announced since its rollout address the primary concerns raised in the lawsuit.Several other legal challenges to the debt-forgiveness plan are pending in other courts. Earlier Thursday, US Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett denied a request to block the plan from a local taxpayer group in Wisconsin.The states claim the plan provides an incentive for borrowers to consolidate their privately held loans into a federal Direct Loan to qualify for forgiveness, which would lessen interest payments owed to local loan servicers and result in revenue loss on eliminated Direct Loans that are serviced by those authorities.But the Biden administration tweaked the program guidance on the same day the lawsuit was filed, opting to exclude non-federally held loans from forgiveness, including any loans consolidated into Direct Loans after Sept. 29.In his order dismissing the case, Autrey said the states behind the challenge cannot sue on behalf of loan servicers, which he says are independent financial entities despite their ties to local governments. He also said the Biden administration's decision to exclude loans consolidated after Sept. 29 eliminates the threat of revenue loss outlined in the lawsuit.
Biden Student Loan Forgiveness Plan Survives Multiple Court Challenges — But Legal Battles Continue - In a victory for borrowers, the Biden administration has defeated multiple legal challenges to its new student loan forgiveness initiative. But the fight is far from over. Biden’s plan would cancel up to $20,000 in student loan debt for up to 40 million borrowers. To be eligible, borrowers must have earned less than $125,000 (or less than $250,000 if they are married) in either 2020 or 2021. Only government-held federal student loans qualify for the relief.The Biden administration notched a string of victories this week against various parties seeking to block the program:
- On Thursday, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett rejected an emergency appeal from a conservative organization seeking to block the program. The suit had previously been dismissed by a federal District Court judge for lack of standing.
- On Friday, a federal judge in Missouri dismissed a suit brought by a coalition of Republican-led states arguing that the student loan forgiveness plan would deprive states, and state-affiliated FFELP participants such as MOHELA, of revenue. Legal observers had viewed this suit as one of the more potent challenges to Biden’s plan. The states are appealing the ruling.
- Also on Friday, a federal judge in Indiana dismissed a suit brought by a conservative legal organization arguing that the student loan forgiveness plan should be blocked because of potential state tax implications. The Plaintiffs are appealing.
Advocacy organizations for student loan borrowers celebrated the initial victories.“Americans are happy to hear that working and middle-class people were put above the profits of student loan companies and the partisan aspirations of some Attorneys Generals,” said Natalia Abrams, Student Debt Crisis Center President in a statement. “Student debt cancellation is about repairing the harm caused by the pandemic, inflation, and a higher education system that has been broken for far too long. With today’s decision, we have cleared another unnecessary hurdle to getting much-needed relief to families across the country.”“With today’s decision, millions of student loan borrowers are one step closer to getting the student loan relief they desperately need and that President Biden has promised to deliver,” said Student Borrower Protection Center deputy executive director and managing counsel Persis Yu in a statement. “This politically and profit-motivated effort to halt President Biden’s historic plan to deliver vital relief has failed, preserving debt relief for working and middle-class families as they recover from the pandemic.
Biden boosts student loan debt forgiveness on heels of court wins - President Joe Biden said 22 million people have registered for student loan relief since applications opened on Monday. "Folks, it takes less than five minutes," Biden said, speaking at Delaware State University, an HBCU in Dover. "It's about as easy to apply while hanging out with your friends at home or watching a movie. The vast majority are applying on their phones. It's easy." The application officially opened on Monday but was released as a beta test last week. Biden said the White House did this to avoid the technical glitches experienced when he and President Barack Obama rolled out the Affordable Care Act site. Biden campaigned on a promise of student loan forgiveness. In August, he announced that federal student loan borrowers earning under $125,000 or households with less than $250,000 in income would be eligible for up to $10,000 in forgiveness. Pell Grant recipients are eligible for up to $20,000 in debt relief. "In total more than 40 million Americans stand to benefit from this relief," Biden said. "For borrowers out of school, nearly 90% of relief is going to go to people making under $75,000 a year. Let me be clear: Not a dime, not a dime will go to the top incomes period. It goes to people who really need it." Eligible borrowers owe more than $1.7 trillion total, a number far greater than auto and credit card debt. Biden said he has already received over 10,000 letters from students thanking him for the executive order. Some Republicans questioned the legality of the executive order, but the White House received court wins Thursday on both the state and federal level allowing forgiveness to move forward. Borrowers who submitted applications could start to receive forgiveness as soon as this weekend. "They've been fighting us in the courts," Biden said. "But just yesterday the state court and the Supreme Court said no, we're on Biden's side." Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett on Thursday rejected a challenge to the program brought by a Wisconsin taxpayers group, and in Missouri a federal judge threw out the lawsuit brought by six Republican-led states. Lawyers for the federal government previously agreed to hold off on discharging student loan relief until October 23, giving time for the legal challenges to proceed. Speaking in Dover, Biden chided Republicans who supported $2 trillion tax cuts under former President Donald Trump and personally received pandemic relief funds, but who do not support student debt relief. "I don't want to hear it from MAGA Republicans, officials who had hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt, even millions of dollars in pandemic relief loans forgiven, who now are attacking me for helping middle class Americans," Biden said. He specifically called out Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. She and her husband received $180,000 worth of Paycheck Protection Program loans, and the congresswoman criticized the student loan plan.
Supreme Court asked to block Biden student-debt relief plan - A Wisconsin taxpayers group asked the U.S. Supreme Court to block President Biden's student-loan relief plan from taking effect, accusing him of usurping the power of Congress and costing taxpayers potentially more than $1 trillion.The emergency filing from the Brown County Taxpayers Association seeks to keep the plan on hold while the group's legal challenge goes forward. The group says the administration could start canceling loans as soon as Sunday without Supreme Court intervention.The Biden plan would forgive as much as $20,000 in federal loans for certain borrowers making less than $125,000 per year or $250,000 for spouses. The plan made good on one of Biden's campaign promises and could bolster Democrats in next month's midterm elections by encouraging young voters to cast ballots.A federal district judge earlier this month tossed out the Brown County case, saying the group lacked legal standing to sue. The Supreme Court has said people generally don't have the right to take the federal government to court over how their tax dollars are spent. The Supreme Court in other contexts has curbed the president's power to act without explicit congressional authorization. In its most recent term, the court blocked the administration from requiring 80 million workers to get shots or periodic tests and curbed the power of the Environmental Protection Agency to tackle climate change."There is no legal justification for this presidential usurpation of the constitutional spending power, which is reserved exclusively for Congress," the Brown County Taxpayers Association argued.The case is one of at least five lawsuits around the country challenging the president's plan. The taxpayers group filed its emergency request with Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who is assigned to handle emergency matters from Wisconsin. Barrett could act on her own or refer the matter to the full nine-member court. The case is Brown County Taxpayers Association v. Biden, 22A331.
Student loan forgiveness was 'dangled in front of us': How 700,000 borrowers were cut out of Biden's plan - Michael Christofield was excited when he found out he was eligible for $10,000 in student loan forgiveness under President Joe Biden’s new plan. The debt relief would help him pay off his loans by the time his children go to college. But before the application was launched, the Biden administration abruptly scaled back the program. As a result, an estimated 700,000 people with a certain kind of federal loan – including Christofield – lost eligibility for debt relief. “It was dangled in front of us,” Christofield, 43, said. The move affected borrowers with older federal loans that, through no fault of their own, are held by private lenders instead of the government. The loans are at the center of a lawsuit making its way through the courts,challenging the legality of Biden’s debt relief program. Biden administration officials have repeatedly said that they are assessing whether there are alternative pathways to provide relief to these borrowers, but the application for the program officially opened Monday without any update. The administration is “moving as quickly as possible to provide relief to as many people as possible,” Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said at a press conference Monday. However, an appeals court ruling Friday temporarily paused the program, delaying relief while it considers a challenge to the loan cancellation plan. The administration had said it would begin granting student loan discharges as early as Sunday. The eligibility change, announced on September 29, excluded federal student loans that are guaranteed by the government but held by private lenders. Many of these loans were made under the former Federal Family Education Loan program, known as FFEL, and Federal Perkins Loan program.Generally, borrowers didn’t have the opportunity to choose whether to take out a federal loan held by the government or one held by a private lender. The FFEL program ended in 2010, so borrowers who took out loans after that date likely have Direct Loans that qualify for debt relief. Often, the FFEL and Perkins loans are serviced by the same companies that service the federal Direct Loans.
Student loan debt cancellation has been temporarily blocked by a federal court : NPR — A federal appeals court late Friday issued an administrative stay temporarily blocking President Joe Biden's plan to cancel billions of dollars in federal student loans, throwing the program into limbo just days after people began applying for loan forgiveness. The Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals issued the stay while it considers a motion from six Republican-led states to block the program. The stay ordered the Biden administration not to act on the program while it considers the appeal. It's unclear what the decision means for the 22 million borrowers who already applied for the relief. The Biden administration had promised not to clear any debt before Oct. 23 as it battled the legal challenges, but the soonest it was expected to begin erasing debt was mid-November. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre encouraged borrowers to continue to apply for the relief, saying the court's temporary order did not prevent applications or the review of applications. "We will continue to move full speed ahead in our preparations in compliance with this order," she said in a statement. "And, the Administration will continue to fight Republican officials suing to block our efforts to provide relief to working families."
Can student loan forgiveness be taxed: Which states may tax you - As millions of Americans prepare to submit applications for student loan forgiveness through the Biden administration's new program, the residents of seven states could get a tax bill if they accept the loan cancellation. Those states are: Arkansas, California, Indiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina and Wisconsin. The tax provisions are not specifically targeting student loans, but they are part of some state laws broadly regarding debt forgiveness. As a result, according to Jared Walczak, a vice president at the Tax Foundation, a nonprofit group that supports lower taxes, state legislatures will need to act if they want to avoid penalizing some borrowers for accepting loan forgiveness, which itself could blunt the positive impact the White House had hoped to achieve through the program. Federal data shows that more than 8 million residents in the seven states could be affected.
What Should the U.S. Do About Rising Student Loan Debt? - Student loan debt in the United States has grown enormously in recent years and is now one of the largest forms of consumer borrowing in the country. Though the benefits of a college education outweigh the costs in most cases, many graduates are concerned about entering a weak job market and worry that lingering debt could hinder their financial futures. Most economists see student loan programs as a sound investment in U.S. workers and essential for maintaining the country’s competitive edge, but questions remain about the appropriate level of federal involvement. A debate has also emerged over whether the government should forgive student loan debt and, if so, how much it should forgive. In 2022, President Joe Biden launched a new student debt relief plan that drew both praise and criticism. Student debt is growing as more and more students attend college. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, most high schoolers did not enroll at colleges or universities; of those that did, less than half borrowed money to do so. In 2021, almost two-thirds of recent high school graduates were enrolled, and most took out student loans. The average student is also taking on more debt: the balance per borrower rose by 25 percent from 2009 to 2021, according to U.S. News and World Report. Students are generally borrowing more because college tuition has grown many times faster than income. The cost of college—and resulting debt—is higher in the United States than in almost all other wealthy countries, where higher education is often free or heavily subsidized. Meanwhile, U.S. states have pulled back funding for public universities and colleges in the wake of the Great Recession. About half of the outstanding student debt was owed by borrowers who attended two- or four-year colleges or universities, as of May 2022, according to the Washington Post; the rest was from graduate school borrowers. While the majority of college students graduate with less than $20,000 in debt, a small portion of borrowers hold an outsize share of student debt. One-third of the total debt is held by the 7 percent of borrowers who owe more than $100,000. However, borrowers with smaller amounts of debt often have a more difficult time repaying their loans, as higher debt from graduate or professional degrees can pay off with much higher incomes. Students who do not complete their degrees often struggle the most; their default rate is three times higher than those who graduate.Additionally, the type of institution makes a difference in how much debt is owed. Private school graduates, especially those who attended for-profit schools, generally have larger debts than those who attended public schools. There is also a racial disparity in student borrowing that many experts say is problematic and the result of decades of systemic discrimination. Black college students generally take on more debt than white students, and they are more likely to struggle with loan repayment after graduating, in part because they typically have lower levels of family wealth. Black, Latinx, and American Indian students are all more likely to default on their loans than white students.
House GOP introduces bill cutting federal funds for ‘sexually oriented’ events for kids -More than 30 House Republicans have signed on to a bill to prohibit federal dollars from being used to make “sexually-oriented” materials available to children under the age of 10.The measure introduced Tuesday by Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) would prohibit the use of federal funds to develop and host programs or events for children younger than 10 that contain “sexually-oriented material,” such as drag queen story hours that have recently drawn the ire of conservative politicians and right-wing groups.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in July filed a federal complaint against a Miami restaurant after a video of a child attending a drag brunch there was circulated widely online. DeSantis in the lawsuit cited a 1947 state Supreme Court ruling that “men impersonating women” in a “suggestive and indecent” fashion constitutes a public nuisance. Johnson’s bill, titled the “Stop the Sexualization of Children Act,” claims that state and federal agencies including the Department of Defense have in the past used federal funds to promote and host “sexually-oriented events” like drag queen story hours or burlesque shows for children and families.The legislation explicitly states that taxpayer dollars will no longer fund programs, events or literature that expose children younger than 10 to “nude adults,” stripping or “lascivious dancing.”Johnson said in a statement on Tuesday that his bill is necessary to stop a “misguided crusade” led by Democrats to expose the nation’s children to “sexual imagery and radical gender ideology.”“This commonsense bill is straightforward,” Johnson said. “No federal tax dollars should go to any federal, state, or local government agencies, or private organizations that intentionally expose children under 10 years of age to sexually explicit material.” Johnson’s bill defines “sexually-oriented material” as depictions, descriptions or simulations of sexual acts, human genitals or “any topic involving gender identity, gender dysphoria, transgenderism, sexual orientation, or related subjects.”
CDC corrects conservative claim: They cannot mandate COVID vaccines in schools - ABC News -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is pushing back on a claim made by Fox News' Tucker Carlson, who said on his show this week that a CDC decision was likely coming to force kids to get COVID-19 vaccines in order to attend school.But that's not actually within the CDC's authority, as the CDC pointed out in a rare tweet on Wednesday correcting Carlson, who has a history of criticizing COVID vaccine policy or sharing incorrect information about the shots. His segment was also fact-checked by Twitter, which threw a disclaimer below the video.Carlson claimed that at an upcoming meeting of the CDC's advisory committee, the agency was "expected to" update the list of routine childhood immunizations and include the COVID-19 vaccine, which would soon mean that kids "will not be able to attend school without taking the COVID shot." But the CDC clarified that its meeting, scheduled for Thursday, is an annual gathering to adjust and update the slate of vaccines doctors should recommend to their patients, from adults down to children, and that the list of vaccines does not dictate what requirements schools put into place."Thursday, CDC's independent advisory committee (ACIP) will vote on an updated childhood immunization schedule. States establish vaccine requirements for school children, not [the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices] or CDC," the agency wrote in response to Carlson's segment.Ultimately, the decision of whether schools require the COVID vaccine cannot be decided at the federal level by the CDC. It's made at the local level.
Jan. 6 panel subpoenas Trump, demanding historic testimony (AP) — The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol formally issued an extraordinary subpoena to Donald Trump on Friday, demanding testimony from the former president who lawmakers say “personally orchestrated” a multi-part effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election.The nine-member panel issued a letter to Trump's lawyers saying he must testify, either at the Capitol or by videoconference, “beginning on or about” Nov. 14 and continuing for multiple days if necessary.The letter also outlined a sweeping request for documents, including personal communications between Trump and members of Congress as well as extremist groups. Those are to be turned in by Nov. 4, although the committee's deadlines are generally subject to negotiation.“We recognize that a subpoena to a former president is a significant and historic action," Chairman Bennie Thompson and Vice Chair Liz Cheney wrote in the letter to Trump. “We do not take this action lightly.”The panel rooted its action in history, listing past presidents from John Quincy Adams to Gerald Ford, who testified before Congress after leaving office — and noted that even sitting presidents have responded to congressional subpoenas. It is unclear how Trump and his legal team will respond. He could comply or negotiate with the committee, announce he will defy the subpoena or ignore it altogether. He could also go to court and try to stop it. “We understand that, once again, flouting norms and appropriate and customary process, the Committee has publicly released a copy of its subpoena," David Warrington, a partner with the Dhillon Law Group, which is representing Trump, said in a statement late Friday. "As with any similar matter, we will review and analyze it, and will respond as appropriate to this unprecedented action.”The subpoena is the latest and most striking escalation in the House committee’s 15-month investigation of the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, bringing members of the panel into direct conflict with the man they have investigated from afar through the testimony of aides, allies and associates.In the letter, the committee wrote about the “overwhelming evidence” it has assembled, showing Trump “personally orchestrated” an effort to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election, including by spreading false allegations of widespread voter fraud, “attempting to corrupt” the Justice Department and pressuring state officials, members of Congress and his own vice president to change the results.“In short, you were at the center of the first and only effort by any U.S. President to overturn an election and obstruct the peaceful transition of power, ultimately culminating in a bloody attack on our own Capitol and on the Congress itself,” Thompson and Cheney said.Lawmakers say key details about what Trump was doing and saying during the siege remain unknown. According to the committee, the only person who can fill the gaps is Trump himself.The panel — comprised of seven Democrats and two Republicans — approved the subpoena for Trump in a surprise vote last week. Every member voted in support.The subpoena calls for testimony about Trump's dealings with several former aides and associates who have asserted their Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination to the committee, including Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, John Eastman, Jeffrey Clark and Kelli Ward.“These Fifth Amendment assertions — made by persons with whom you interacted — related directly to you and your conduct," the subpoena letter reads. "They provide specific examples where your truthful testimony under oath with be important.”The committee also made 19 requests for documents and communication — including for any messages Trump sent on the encrypted messaging app Signal “or any other means” to members of Congress and others about the stunning events of the Capitol attack.The scope of the committee's request is expansive — pursuing documents from Sept. 1, 2020, two months before the election, to the present on the president’s communications with the groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys — as the panel looks to compile a historical record of the run-up to the Capitol attack and then the aftermath.But there remains little legal advantage for Trump to cooperate with the committee as he already faces other civil and criminal legal battles in various jurisdictions, including over his family business in New York and the handling of presidential records at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.It’s possible his lawyers could simply run out the clock on the subpoena if they go to court to try to squash it as the committee is required to finish its work by the end of the year.
What's next after the Jan. 6 committee's vote to subpoena Trump - The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the Capitolunanimously voted to subpoena former President Trump for his testimony and records, the culmination of months of witness interviews, evidence analysis and public hearings. What happens next?He has not yet been issued a subpoena. That will come from the Jan. 6 committee's chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson, likely in a matter of days. Other Trump allies have also received subpoenas, including his former chief White House strategist, Stephen Bannon, law professor John Eastman and former national security adviser Michael Flynn. While some were interviewed by the committee, others, including Eastman and Flynn, appeared to decline to answer many of the committee's questions by invoking the Fifth Amendment.Should Trump choose to defy the subpoena, the committee would need to secure a majority vote by the full House of Representatives to refer to the Justice Department a misdemeanor charge of refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena. Bannon and another former top aide, Peter Navarro, defied their subpoenas and were referred to the Justice Department for contempt of Congress. Bannon has been tried and convicted, and he is to be sentenced on Oct. 21. Navarro's trial is scheduled to begin in November.Trump responded Friday to the committee's vote, writing a letter that falsely insisted the election had been "rigged" and "stolen" but did not address whether he would comply with the subpoena. It's likely he will challenge the select committee's subpoena. In the past, he has asked the federal courts to intervene in efforts by congressional Democrats to obtain his tax returns and financial records, as well as the select committee's attempt to get Trump's White House records from the National Archives and Records Administration.In January, the Supreme Court turned down Trump's request to block the release of his White House documents, and the committee received the records soon after.While the committee held its meeting Thursday, the Supreme Court also declined a request from Trump for it to intervene in a dispute over documents he brought with him from the White House to his South Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago, at the end of his presidency in Jan. 2021. The committee is on a tight deadline and must wrap up its work before the end of the year, constraining how much it might be able to accomplish before then. It plans to issue its final report 30 days before the timeline for its work expires, meaning that report could come in the next month or two, CBS News congressional correspondent Scott McFarlane has noted.
Jan. 6 committee subpoenaed Donald Trump. Here's what comes next : NPR - Donald Trump is not known for cooperating with investigations that target him or his businesses.So now that the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol has voted — unanimously — to subpoena him, you have to wonder about the former president's next move. Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, a member of the House select committee, told NPR on Friday that Trump doesn't really have a choice."Multiple presidents and seven former presidents have come to testify before Congress, several of them voluntarily," he said. "His being a former president does not entitle him to skip out on the law."Aziz Huq is a professor of law at the University of Chicago, where he focuses on constitutional law, and he joined All Things Considered to parse what comes next.
- On whether Trump can ignore the subpoena: A subpoena is a lawful order to produce either documents or to testify. But a subpoena needs to be enforced. Congress has to take a couple of steps before this subpoena would be enforced, and it is likely that any of the paths that it took would require a good deal of time and would give the former president a number of opportunities to delay the process beyond the life span, at least, of the current Congress.
- On what penalties he may face if he does not cooperate: The committee has two basic options. The first is that it could refer the case to the Justice Department for prosecution. There is an 1857 statute that allows prosecutions for contempt of Congress. Indeed, Steve Bannon was just convicted under that statute. The second option the committee has is to proceed in court itself using a civil suit to compel performance by the former president under the subpoena's terms. If the committee takes that second route, there's a possibility of civil contempt sanctions, which might be a fine and, in rare cases, imprisonment.
- On what would happen to the Jan. 6 committee if Republicans win the House in the upcoming election: If the Republicans gain control of the House in November, the new majority would have power both to wind up the Jan. 6 committee and also to withdraw the subpoena against the former president. In that case, the former president would not have any legal concern with respect to producing information for a committee that no longer existed.
- On what the point of the subpoena is from a legal standpoint: Obviously, the committee is making a point about the former president's involvement in the Jan. 6 events. It's making a point about the alleged criminality of the former president's alleged involvement. It's not completely impossible that you would see some kind of a legal consequence from this. The way that I would imagine that playing out is the committee deciding after the November election to bring a criminal referral to the Justice Department, and the Justice Department proceeding with that criminal referral against the former president even after the House has changed hands.
- On whether the issue raises concerns on the separation of power": This kind of dispute is unusual in that it immediately draws in all three branches of government. There's immediately a question of whether the legislature should go to the courts, whether the attorney general has to bring a prosecution. Once the Congress has indicated it wishes him to do so, and there's a question of whether executive privilege or some other executive branch entitlement prevents either the court acting or the legislature acting. So, absolutely, there are separation-of-power issues at stake. Perhaps what makes this story distinctive is the complexity and the entanglement of those issues because of the involvement of all three branches.
“We Demand Answers On The Crime Of The Century”: Donald Trump Reacts to January 6 Committee Subpoena With Lengthy Missive - After the January 6 committee voted unanimously to subpoena former President Donald Trump on Thursday, on Friday evening, Trump wrote an angry 14-page letter reacting to the House committee’s efforts.Despite the letter’s length, the former president did not address whether he would comply with the subpoena. Instead, the message began with a familiar string of words—in all-caps this time: “The presidential election of 2020 was rigged and stolen!”In the missive, Trump sank even deeper into his hole of 2020 election fraud lies and said the committee pursued the wrong people: “You have not gone after the people that created the Fraud, but rather great American Patriots who questioned it, as is their Constitutional right. These people have had their lives ruined as your Committee sits back and basks in the glow.”He concluded by saying, “We demand answers on the Crime of the Century.”The New York Times reported that sources expect the January 6 committee to issue the subpoena as soon as Monday. The hearing on Thursday was likely the panel’s last public hearing. Just before the committee members voted on the subpoena, Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) said: “[Trump] is the one person at the center of the story of what happened on January 6. So we want to hear from him. The committee needs to do everything in our power to tell the most complete story possible.”Footage released on Thursday showed how Trump had planned on announcing his 2020 victory months in advance. Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale told the committee that Trump had planned on declaring victory–regardless of the real results–since July 2020.
Trump Response to Jan. 6 Subpoena Was 'Self-Incriminating': Glenn Kirschner - Former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner said on Friday that former PresidentDonald Trump's response to his subpoena, which was issued by the House select committee investigating last year's Capitol riot, was "self-incriminating.""The January 6 Committee investigating the insurrection just subpoenaed Donald Trump to testify and Donald Trump responded, sort of, with a letter. A letter that is deeply and sharply self-incriminating," Kirschner said.The select committee on Thursday unanimously agreed to subpoena Trump for documents and testimony related to the insurrection that unfolded on January 6, 2021, saying that the former president "is required to answer for his actions.""We have left no doubt—none—that Donald Trump led an effort to upend American democracy that directly resulted in the violence of January 6," the committee's chairman Bennie Thompson said. "He is the one person at the center of the story of what happened on January 6. So we want to hear from him."In response, Trump released a lengthy statement that didn't mention how he will respond to the subpoena, including whether or not he intends to testify or deny most of the allegations made against him.Initially, Trump said on his social media platform, Truth Social, on Thursday night that he would share his response to the "unselect Committee of political Hacks & Thugs" on Friday morning.Trump ended up sharing a memo addressed to Thompson and other panel members that was titled "peacefully patriotically" in which he continued to tout his baseless claims that the 2020 presidential election was "rigged and stolen" by widespread voter fraud. The ex-president's 14-page letter opens with "THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2020 WAS RIGGED AND STOLEN!" The letter blames the panel for spending "hundreds of millions of dollars" on the "Charade and Witch Hunt" instead of disputing claims of voter fraud. Trump added that the panel instead "targeted only those who were, as concerned American Citizens, protesting the Fraud itself."Kirschner said on Friday that if he was the prosecutor handling the criminal case against Trump, he would present the letter to the jury as "further evidence of Donald Trump's ongoing conspiracy to commit offenses against and defraud the United States."The former federal prosecutor added: "He didn't write that letter, he had help, he had somebody draft that letter with him or for him. And here's what I would say, anybody who helped or participated in the drafting of that letter, with or for Donald Trump, needs to be looked at as a co-conspirator because this letter is a continued effort to deceive the American people."
Trump Beats Biden In 2024 Hypothetical And Barely Anyone Cares About Jan. 6: Harvard Poll - The latest Harvard / Harris poll doesn't look good for Democrats, at all. For starters, President Trump would beat Biden 45% to 43% with 12% undecided in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, were it to be held today. Trump would beat VP Kamala Harris 49% to 38%, with 13% undecided. Interestingly, Harris beats Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) 41% to 39% were both Trump and Biden out of the race. When it comes down to Trump vs. DeSantis - Megyn Kelly is right; Trump mops the floor with the Florida governor - though DeSantis would win the GOP primary by a huge margin if Trump bows out. Among Democrats, Biden is the frontrunner by a longshot at 37%, vs. Kamala Harris (13%) and Hillary Clinton (9%). Hilariously, Kamala wins vs. Hillary if Joe bows out. The 'most important issues facing the country' are also a huge blow to Democrats - particularly their dog-and-pony January 6th show trials, which just 7% of those polled thought was the 'most important' issue. 63% of those polled said the country is on the wrong track - down from 70%, and only surpassed during the pandemic in the Trump-era. When it comes to what people think Democratic party leaders care about - the party in power is seen as 'disconnected from the top issues,' with those polled saying they are most interested in January 6th, women's rights, climate change and guns. Among the top issues likely to sway voters to team red vs. team blue, "Stopping the teaching of woke ideologies in schools" was 43% likely to cause people to vote Republican vs. 33% Democrat. Inflation, crime and immigration were also big factors.
Michael Cohen says Trump believed the classified documents stashed at Mar-a-Lago were his 'get out of jail free card' - Michael Cohen said that former President Donald Trump saw the classified documents stashed at Mar-a-Lago as his "get out of jail free" card, he told Salon magazine in an interview. "He's only interested in one thing: the get out of jail free card," Cohen said. "And that's exactly what he saw in those documents." Cohen, once Trump's personal attorney and fixer, suggested in the Salon interview that Trump thought he might be able to leverage the confidentiality of these documents to his own advantage. ----- The Washington Post reported that FBI agents were looking for secret documents about nuclear weapons during the Mar-a-Lago raid in August. The Post's source did not say if this refers to the US arsenal or that of another country. ----- According to The New York Times, Trump has already floated the idea of using classified documents as a bargaining chip. Trump last year suggested to advisors that he would return boxes of materials from Mar-a-Lago to the National Archives and Records Administration in exchange for "sensitive" documents about the FBI investigation of his 2016 campaign's ties to Russia, the paper said. Aides to the former president did not go through with the proposal, per The Times.
Steve Bannon ‘Expressed No Remorse for His Actions,’ Judge Says - -- Steve Bannon, a longtime adviser to former President Donald Trump, was ordered to spend four months in jail and pay a $6,500 fine for refusing to comply with a subpoena from the House committee investigating the attack on the US Capitol. Bannon, 68, was sentenced by US District Judge Carl J. Nichols in court in Washington Friday after a jury in July found him guilty of two counts of contempt of Congress for refusing to testify and hand over documents to the Jan. 6 committee. Nichols said he would release Bannon from the sentence for now if he files a timely appeal. Outside the courthouse, as he was surrounded by a crowd calling him a “traitor” and screaming “lock him up,” Bannon vowed that he would appeal. “This thing about ‘I’m above the law’ is an absolute and total lie,” Bannon said. He added that on Nov. 8, the date of the midterm elections for control of Congress, the American people are going to pass “judgment on the illegitimate Biden regime.” During the hearing Friday, Bannon’s attorneys had argued the offense level should be lowered because he accepted responsibility. But Nichols disagreed and said that Bannon “expressed no remorse for his actions” and he has yet to show an intention to comply with the subpoena. The government asked that Bannon be sentenced to the maximum of six months in prison and pay a $200,000 fine. His defense attorneys say he should only have to undergo probation, or should be able to serve any sentence in home confinement. Nichols said that flouting the congressional subpoena showed a “lack of respect” for the legislative branch, but he didn’t set the maximum sentence because Bannon was following the advice of his attorney at the time to claim Trump exerted executive privilege -- which the judge said was “overly aggressive and misguided.”
Steve Bannon sentenced to 4 months in prison for criminal contempt of Congress — Steve Bannon, ex-White House strategist and adviser to former President Donald Trump, was sentenced Friday to four months in federal prison and a $6,500 fine for refusing to appear before the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol. U.S. District Court Judge Carl Nichols sentenced Bannon to four months each on two counts of criminal contempt of Congress, but the prison terms will be served concurrently. A jury found Bannon guilty of the two counts in July — one for refusing to appear for a deposition before the panel and the other for refusing to produce requested documents. Each count carries a minimum potential sentence of 30 days and a maximum of one year in prison, as well as a fine of $100 to $1,000. Federal prosecutors sought six months behind bars, while Bannon’s attorneys asked the court for probation. Bannon himself declined to address the court in his own defense. Nichols released Bannon pending an appeal by his attorneys. The judge set Nov. 15 as a tentative deadline for Bannon to surrender to serve his prison term. He also said he was going to pursue a vigorous appeal against Nichols's sentence and declared that on Nov. 8 — Election Day — the "illegal Biden regime" is going to face "judgment ... and we know where that's going." During the hearing, Nichols noted that in response to a subpoena from the House Jan. 6 committee, Bannon had produced no documents requested by the committee or given any testimony to the panel. Bannon and his lawyers argued that he did not have to comply with such requests because his dealings with Trump while Trump was president were covered by executive privilege, although they noted that Trump had withdrawn relevant executive privilege claims in July. In arguments to the judge, defense lawyer David Schoen insisted that Bannon "had a principled reason for not complying with the subpoena" issued by the committee, although he did engage in contact with the panel. "He gave the committee an out. ... [Bannon] wanted to find a way to comply," Schoen said, adding that "Mr. Bannon never at any time acted as if he was above the law. ... What the prosecution really wants is to punish Bannon for speaking out against committee abuses of its authority." Prosecutor J.P. Cooney told the judge that in the government's view, "Mr. Bannon could not have been in more contempt of Congress. ... This man chose ... to thumb his nose at Congress. Your honor, the defendant is not above the law."
A co-founder of the firm behind Truth Social says Trump retaliated against another exec who refused to gift some of his shares to Melania -A co-founder of Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind Truth Social, said former President Donald Trump pushed another executive to give some of his shares to Melania Trump and retaliated when the request was declined, according to aWashington Post report.Will Wilkerson, who filed a whistleblower complaint about the company to the SEC in August, made the allegation in a story published by the outlet on Saturday. The Post, which obtained materials submitted with Wilkerson's complaint, detailed accusations of infighting and potentially illegal activity at the company.Trump had been given a 90% stake in the company when it was founded, according to the SEC complaint. But Wilkerson told the Post he was with fellow co-founder Andy Litinsky in October 2021 when the latter received a call from Trump. At the time, the company had recently reached a merger dealthat would catapult the value of its stock. Wilkerson said the former president asked Litinsky to give some of his shares to Melania Trump. Wilkerson told the Post that Litinsky demurred and explained the gift would result in a tax bill he would be unable to pay: "Trump didn't care. He said, 'Do whatever you need to do.'"Litinsky, a former contestant on "The Apprentice," was removed from the company's board five months later in what Wilkerson believed was retaliation. According to a March email obtained by the Post, Litinsky also believed he had been retaliated against."President Trump over the past 2 months has repeatedly demanded that I give my TMTG equity to Melania Trump," Litinsky wrote, according to a screenshot of the email published by the Post. "As I have informed him several times, I have earned that equity, and also 'gifting' equity to Melania Trump would be a taxable event of which I can't afford to pay the taxes."
Atlanta Fed President Bought Low and Sold High in 2020 as the Fed Bailed Out Wall Street; Then He Failed to Report those Trades --By Pam Martens and Russ Martens - It was one year ago that Wall Street On Parade raised a multitude of red flags about Raphael Bostic, the President of the Atlanta Fed. We have published the entirety of that article below so that our readers can see just how long it took both Bostic and the Atlanta Fed to come clean with the American people about his trading on Wall Street.On Friday, Bostic released a seven-page statement in which he owned up to the following: failing to list a multitude of trades that were conducted on his behalf by trading firms on Wall Street over a period of five years; failing to properly report income on his assets on his financial disclosure forms; trading during blackout periods when trading was barred by the Federal Reserve; providing inaccurate values on his financial disclosure forms. The upshot was that Bostic had to restate his financial disclosure forms for the entire five-year period he has filed them at the Atlanta Fed , i.e., 2017 through 2021.If a publicly-traded company had to restate its earnings and admit that it had lied to the American people for five straight years, you can bet that the CEO and CFO would be fired in short order by the Board of Directors. But the Board of the Atlanta Fed is sticking with Bostic – at least for now.The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has referred the matter to the Fed’s Inspector General for an investigation. Unfortunately, that’s not a genuinely arms-length investigation since the Fed’s Inspector General reports to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The Fed’s Inspector General is already investigating the trading conduct of at least two Fed officials: the former President of the Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, who traded in and out of S&P 500 futures contracts in lots of more than $1 million during the pandemic year of 2020; and the former President of the Boston Fed, Eric Rosengren, who traded Real Estate Investment Trusts and whose wife had a margin account with Citigroup, a mega bank supervised by the Fed. Both men resigned their posts when their improper trading conduct came to light. (See our in-depth archive on the Fed’s trading scandal here.)Of particular note on the revised financial disclosure forms filed by Bostic are seven purchases made on March 19, 2020 and twelve purchases made between March 24-25, 2020. (See Schedule B, Transactions, on the financial disclosure form.) The purchases were made in various stock mutual funds just as stocks were putting in a bottom after the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost more than 6,000 points. The trades were almost perfectly timed as the stock market took off like a rocket thereafter as the Fed announced one bailout program after another.Making Bostic’s excuses for failing to report these transactions look even weaker, in October of last year New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek broke the news that the Fed’s ethics officer had issued a warning to Fed officials on March 23, 2020. The warning specifically told Fed officials to avoid unnecessary trading for a few months as the Fed delved deeper into establishing emergency programs to support the market. The memo went to the presidents of the 12 regional Fed banks and their ethics officers. And yet, Bostic’s account shows 12 stock mutual fund purchases made just one and two days after that memo was issued.Senator Elizabeth Warren has called on the Securities and Exchange Commission to open an insider trading investigation into the Fed’s trading scandal. Watchdog groups have called on the Department of Justice to open a criminal investigation. Wall Street On Parade has repeatedly called for the same. Until those investigations are made public, confidence in the U.S. central bank will continue to erode.
Margin Debt Is Still Far from Calling a Bottom for Stocks by Wolf Richter - Increases and decreases in leverage, when large enough, drive markets up or down. The only summary data on stock-market leverage that we can get is margin debt, reported monthly by FINRA, which obtains the data from its member brokers. There is a lot more leverage in the market, but we don’t get a summary figure of it. Margin debt is our stand-in for overall stock market leverage.Margin debt data that was released last November, for the month of October,nailed the top in the stock market, as margin debt had nailed prior tops. More on that in a moment, including my annotated long-term chart. Now we’re looking for signs of a bottom. But as of the latest release of margin debt, we’re far from any bottom.Margin debt fell by $24 billion in September from August, to $664 billion. But it is still very high, 39% above the March 2020 low. The drops in margin debt in January and February 2020 showed that there was already concern that Covid might be tearing up the markets, and some investors prepared by reducing their leverage. At the current level, margin debt has a lot more room to fall – and the process can take years as we’ll see in a moment – before it signals a bottom in the stock market.In the chart above, you can see that the summer rally was doomed to be just another bear-market rally because margin debt didn’t jump with it; it barely ticked up a little and then fizzled. Leverage is a huge factor in the direction of any market. Leverage is the great accelerator on the way up, and on the way down. Big spikes in margin debt led invariably to stock market “events,” and a bottoming out of margin debt either preceded or closely followed the bottom of the sell-off. The bottom signal occurs when margin debt drops to the lows from a few years earlier and then starts rising again. In the long-term view of margin debt, it’s not the absolute dollar amounts that matter, but the steep spikes in margin debt before the selloffs and the declines that start with the sell-off, and bottom out at the end of the sell-off. The long-term chart below of margin debt also shows stock market events. Margin debt will need to fall somewhere near a prior low established several years before the spike in order to give a bottom signal. The Dotcom Bust started in the middle of March 2000 (Nasdaq Composite hit 5,048), which was also the month when the spike in margin debt peaked. Margin debt bottomed in October 2002, having fallen to a level of 1998, after the Nasdaq Composite had plunged 78%. Then both began to rise again. The Financial Crisis crash was preceded by a huge spike in margin debt to a peak in July 2007. Then margin debt fell. The Nasdaq started falling on November 1, 2007, from 2,859, plunging 55% to 1,268 by March 2009. Margin debt bottomed in February 2009, reported in March 2009. The stock market bottomed in March 2009. As you can see, this process takes years – not months! Margin debt is not an indicator for day traders or short-term speculators that bet on daily ups and downs, but an indicator of longer-term trends.
BankThink - Waiting on open finance legislation in the U.S. is pointless | American Banker - Last year the Biden administration announced a sweeping executive order launching a "whole-of-government" approach to improving competition in the American economy. One measure in particular seemed poised to revolutionize American leadership in financial technology — and unlock unprecedented financial freedom and protection — with focused rulemaking under Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act. Stating that consumers should have rights over and access to their financial information, Section 1033 famously helped augur the financial technology industry as we know it. Despite early praise for the executive order and the U.S. entering a period where the need for financial innovation is more acute than ever, we now find ourselves 12 months down the line and there has been no discernible progress. For those hoping that a shift forward for open banking regulation would pave the way for more secure and open sharing of a broader array of financial data, it's all but a lost cause.Open banking as a concept is not new in financial services. And progress on the regulatory side is largely owed to folks across the pond, with data-sharing regulations getting passed in 2015 in the European Union and 2016 in the U.K. that have allowed the systems to take root. In the U.K., more than 6 million consumers and businesses use open banking to do everything from paying their utility bills to getting approved for mortgages and loans. All told, open banking facilitated 21.1 million transactions over the six months through March 2022, streamlining processes while keeping data secure. The momentum of open banking and the ongoing push toward its more evolved form — open finance — reflects a market with a hands-on, proactive approach to legislation that makes a positive impact.The approach stands in contrast to how innovation in financial technology has emerged in the United States. With half-century-old legislation unfit for purpose and constant pushback from legacy players, much of today's progress has been driven solely by technological innovation within the sector. On a positive note, after years of ambiguity, the industry has seemingly reached a consensus around the interpretation of Section 1033, and the opportunities it affords to consumers. But while the benefits of open banking for the consumer are understood, for businesses to benefit in the same way, the concept must extend to the systems where they use and manage financial data, for example their enterprise resource planning (ERP), accounting and e-commerce systems.The vast majority of small businesses do not manage their finances from a bank account. In fact, the major advantage of the open banking movement for businesses has been that it has led to wider availability of features to automatically sync data into accounting and ERP systems, the main hub of business financial data. A new wave of digital businesses are also increasingly looking to their e-commerce and payments tools, like Shopify or Toast, as the destination to better understand performance and make decisions. For businesses, it's opening up these systems that will be the real lever for greater freedom, flexibility and growth: the ability to accurately predict cash flow, make faster and cheaper payments, quickly access more suitable business funding and much more. We know from experience that the real-world impact of such abilities is significant.
'Everything's on the table' for Fed, FDIC as they weigh resolution reform - Bank regulators have sparked debate among policy specialists about what requirements should be imposed on large banks to make sure they can fail without harming the broader financial system.Last week, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on large-bank resolution standards. In it, the agencies asked for public input on a dozen subjects relating to potential requirements ranging from long-term, loss-absorbing debt to plans for key assets to be liquidated individually."They're truly going into this with an open mind and looking for feedback on what the best approach would be for these firms," said Jeremy Kress, a business law professor in the University of Michigan. "I didn't take much substantively out of reading the ANPR, other than, 'Here are a bunch of questions, everything's on the table.' The only thing we can say with certainty is that the agencies all agree that this is a problem that ought to be addressed."Yet, while the agencies have not taken a firm stance on how they might change their policies toward Category II and Category III banks — also known as large regional banks or domestic systemically important banks, or DSIBs — others have read between the lines.Dennis Kelleher, head of the nonprofit advocacy group Better Markets, praised the agencies' recognition of the financial stability risk posed by these banks. But he said he is concerned about the questions focused on long-term unsecured debt requirements. Kelleher said this was tied too closely to the "grossly inadequate and unworkable idea of total loss-absorbing capacity.""TLAC is a fraud on the public because it has the appearance of helping financial stability when it will likely be destabilizing in a crisis and increase the likelihood of taxpayer bailouts," Kelleher said.Stephen Miller, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center, also sees the agencies preparing to "lower the threshold at which TLAC applies," thus extending the too-big-to-fail framework of the global systemically important banks (GSIBs) to more banks. Because banks are already well capitalized and have little exposure to high-risk assets, he said such a shift would not be particularly burdensome, but he questioned its efficacy in protecting customers, taxpayers or financial stability."They're not the most costly changes if they are implemented, but they may not be the most effective." Miller said. "That is not something that really concerns me, but it's kind of like making a change just to make the change. It's like window dressing."Since the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, eight U.S.-based GSIBs have been required to submit resolution plans to the Fed every two years. In addition to being subject to TLAC requirements, these banks also face "clean holding company" rules — prohibiting certain risky activities at the holding company level — and are subject to supervisory guidance from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Category II and III banks submit resolution plans every three years, alternating between full and targeted plans, but face none of the other requirements as the GSIBs.How closely the resolution framework for large regional banks should resemble that of the GSIBs is at the heart of the agencies' preliminary round of questions.
FDIC finalizes rule requiring banks to pay more for deposit insurance -The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Board voted unanimously to finalize a rule requiring banks to pay more for deposit insurance, despite industry objections. In a 3-0 vote, the FDIC passed a rule to increase assessment rates 2 basis points beginning the first quarter of next year, aiming to return the deposit insurance fund to its statutory minimum of 1.35%. Deposits rose dramatically during the pandemic and have remained high, bringing the Deposit Insurance Fund below its required minimum ratio to 1.26% as of June. The FDIC estimates that the rate hike would reduce banks' income on average by 1.2%. The agency's board also noted that it reserves flexibility to change assessment rates in the future without a notice or comment period.Bank groups have strongly opposed the move. In a series of comment letters and in other advocacy materials, groups including the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association and Consumer Bankers Association have argued that deposits fell slightly during the second quarter, and that the problem "is likely to fix itself early next year." It's also bad timing, banks argue, to raise deposit rates now as the U.S. potentially enters a recession, and a period of uncertainty for banks. "The increase, set to take effect in the first quarter of next year, will reduce banks' lending capacity right when bank credit supply will be needed to support growth and help steer the economy into a soft landing rather than a recession, or to cushion the blow of a recession should one occur," the banks said in a press release ahead of the FDIC meeting. House Republicans have even entered the fray. Led by Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer of Missouri, a group of senior Republicans on the House Financial Service Committee wrote a letter dated Oct. 17 urging the board to let the fund recover over time, rather than raising rates. "We are concerned that an increase in the assessment rate at this time could pose real harm to consumers, particularly those with low and moderate incomes who may need access to credit," the lawmakers said. "It is in their best interests to allow the fund to naturally recover over time as deposits run off." The FDIC rejected those arguments. At the meeting, FDIC board members said that the rate increase is still necessary, and that it's better to raise rates now while banks can withstand what they said is a modest effect on their businesses. Deposits also typically fall somewhat in the second quarter, agency officials said, so the most recent second-quarter data isn't necessarily indicative of deposit levels falling in a way that would allow the fund to recover. "Overall, the banking industry continues to report strong earnings and is well positioned to absorb this modest increase in assessment rates," FDIC acting Chairman Martin Greenberg said during the meeting.
Payment stablecoins could 'fundamentally alter' banking, FDIC's Gruenberg says - — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. acting Chairman Martin Gruenberg said that stablecoins require prudential regulation and could upend the banking system if they become more widely used in payments. Stablecoins that are meant to be used for payments could "fundamentally alter the landscape of banking," Gruenberg said during remarks at an event on digital assets held by the Brookings Institution Thursday. "Economies of scale associated with payment stablecoins could lead to further consolidation in the banking system or disintermediation of traditional banks," he said. "And the network effects associated with payment stablecoins could alter the manner in which credit is extended within the banking system — for example by facilitating greater use of FinTech and non-bank lending — and possibly leading to forms of credit disintermediation that could harm the viability of many U.S. banks and potentially create a foundation for a new type of shadow banking." Gruenberg noted, however, that crypto and stablecoins haven't yet "proven to be a meaningful or reliable source of payments in the real economy," although he said that the distributed ledger technology that digital assets are built on could have an impact on the payments system. He said that he sees stablecoins designed for payments as "conceptually distinct and separate" from stablecoins more broadly, specifically as they're currently used as investments. But stablecoins used as payments could pose a variety of risks, he said, to everything from financial stability to community banks. "Payment stablecoins by their very design could exhibit many of the features, and potential vulnerabilities, associated with money market mutual funds," Gruenberg said. "As we have seen previously, in stressed market conditions, large investors could quickly exit their holdings, leading to the fire-sale pricing of underlying securities and panic selling by other investors. This could result in contagion across other payment stablecoins and similar pooled asset holdings, resulting in a systemic event." He said that, to make stablecoins safer, they should be offered through bank subsidiaries, they should be backed by short-term Treasurys and they should be on "permissioned ledger systems" with robust compliance mechanisms.
JPMorgan adds crypto policy head after Dimon 'Ponzi scheme' quip - JPMorgan Chase has hired a new head of digital assets regulatory policy, less than a month after CEO Jamie Dimon told lawmakers that cryptocurrencies are "decentralized Ponzi schemes."Aaron Iovine joined the company this week as executive director for digital assets regulatory policy, a newly created role, a JPMorgan spokeswoman confirmed. He was previously head of policy and regulatory for the cryptocurrency lender Celsius Network, whose bankruptcy filing has roiled the digital asset market.JPMorgan is looking to build out its policy ranks in the evolving digital asset space amid increased regulatory scrutiny and a downturn in cryptocurrency values.Iovine didn't respond to a comment request.Dimon and other JPMorgan executives have been vocal critics of digital assets.Dimon's "Ponzi schemes" comment came Sept. 21 in congressional testimony, during which he called himself a "major skeptic on crypto tokens." Takis Georgakopoulos, global head of payments at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg Television last month that he sees "very little" demand for cryptocurrencies as a payment tool.In addition to hiring Iovine, JPMorgan this month posted an opening for a digital assets counsel position with its corporate and investment bank.
JPMorgan's Dimon to discuss bank tax in call with U.K. chancellor - Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, will discuss bank taxes and the U.K.'s plans to boost the finance sector's competitiveness in a telephone call next week with U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt.The call comes after mounting concerns among banks that the Treasury may be planning to impose taxes on banks that could reach more than 30% as part of efforts by the U.K. government to fill its funding black hole.Hunt has said he would raise corporation tax to 25% from April. Banks are also paying an 8% surcharge on their profits. Unless Hunt reduces the surcharge, lenders will be taxed at 33%, up from 27% now, a level that is much higher than other financial centers such as New York or Frankfurt. JPMorgan is one of the biggest overseas banks in the U.K., with 19,000 employees. Its European investment banking headquarters is in London and it has a substantial operation in Bournemouth. Last year it launched a digital bank in the U.K., Chase, and bought the British online wealth manager Nutmeg.Dimon's call with Hunt is due to be scheduled for next week, according to people familiar with the matter who did not want to be identified. The JPMorgan boss has long sought introductory calls and meetings with previous British chancellors, including Hunt's short-lived predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng. JPMorgan declined to comment.Hunt has stirred concerns among banks by saying nothing "is off the table" and that he was not opposed to windfall taxes. When bankers asked the Treasury what would happen to the surcharge given that corporation tax is due to rise, they received no guidance, according to people familiar with the matter.Domestic and international banks based in the U.K. pay the surcharge on their profits. Large lenders also pay a levy on their balance sheets. Over the summer, there had been hopes that Liz Truss's government would cut the surcharge and the levy as part of their plan to boost the City of London. Truss resigned Thursday amid spiraling conflict within the ruling Conservative Party.
Bankers told they can ignore binding fossil-finance restrictions -The world's biggest climate coalition for bankers says it has the right to ignore a proposal that would require members to phase out the financing of fossil fuels.Tracey McDermott, chair of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, said in a letter on Monday that the 119-strong group, which counts Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs Group and UBS Group among signatories, has "an autonomous governance structure and decision making process" and any changes to its guidelines "can only take place in accordance with that governance."The clarification was issued after the United Nations-backed Race to Zero campaign, which reviews and accredits net-zero initiatives, updated its criteria in June to put forward more stringent decarbonization targets.That move angered a number of Wall Street firms, with JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all threatening to walk out over the issue, people familiar with the matter said last month. Efforts to reassure bankers that they can continue to finance oil, gas and even coal come less than a month before the COP27 climate summit in Egypt. The event looks set to draw far fewer financial chief executives than attended the COP26 summit in Scotland last year, Bloomberg News has reported.
Wall Street blames war, GOP for making climate goals harder to meet - War and the increase in anti-ESG sentiment in the U.S. are part of a new and "complex" set of hurdles making it much harder for Wall Street to meet the climate promises it's made, according to the chair of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance. "When you look at the environment around decarbonization and fossil fuels, the situation is more complex than it was even versus 2021," Tracey McDermott, who aside from chairing NZBA is group head of conduct, financial crime and compliance at Standard Chartered, said in an interview. Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the energy crisis and U.S. politics are making it difficult for banks and necessitate greater clarity about the sector's environmental commitments, she said. That means there's "heightened sensitivity" among members about the implications of the commitments they've made, she said. Against that backdrop, some of NZBA's biggest members in the U.S. have actively lobbied against curbs on fossil finance, according to people familiar with the process. And the alliance recently reassured signatories that they were free to ignore a proposal by a UN-backed group called Race to Zero, which had sought to map out a credible path to net zero by imposing binding restrictions on financing fossil fuels. NZBA, which is one of seven groups that make up the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, is aware that "short-term issues cannot distract us from the long-term goal," McDermott said. "But it must be recognized that they have an impact on how governments are approaching the energy debate." The comments represent the clearest acknowledgment yet that the new world order is leading the finance industry to reconsider its priorities. With Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine plunging the world into a dangerous energy security crisis, banks have stepped up their financial support of fossil fuels. Loans to oil, gas and coal have reached $320 billion so far this year, up 9% from the same period in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lending has been led by Wells Fargo, with Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and JPMorgan Chase not far behind. All are NZBA members. "No one disputes for a moment that fossil fuels have to be phased down and out, but how that happens and what comes first is debated," McDermott said. "That you have to wean yourself off fossil fuels is accepted by NZBA. The question is: How do you deliver on that?" Despite the rise in fossil-fuel lending, Republican states have been designing legislation to punish financial firms perceived to be hostile toward the oil, gas and coal industries. According to research by the hedge-fund provider NorthPeak, at least 18 traditionally red states have either enacted or proposed laws against firms suspected of promoting the environment, social justice and good governance. The laws often target specific firms, with BlackRock and UBS Group among those caught in the crosshairs. McDermott said banks can't be expected to push through policies that aren't supported by the governments of the markets in which they operate. "We can't achieve this without governments," she said. "Without a transition in the real economy, we won't reach net zero — governments must create an environment to encourage that to happen."
Fifth Circuit finds CFPB funding structure unconstitutional -An appeals court ruled that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's funding structure is unconstitutional, setting up another potential challenge to the agency before the Supreme Court. Three judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled in Community Financial Services Association of America v. CFPB on Wednesday that the CFPB's funding structure violates the Constitution's structural separation of powers. The three judges also invalidated part of the CFPB's 2017 payday lending rule.The CFPB is expected to appeal, and has two options for doing so. The agency can request a hearing before the full Fifth Circuit panel of judges, known as an en banc review, or it can submit a request to hear the case before the Supreme Court. The Fifth Circuit's panel decision likely will be stayed while the case moves forward without any immediate effect on the CFPB's operations, but the ruling nonetheless could have broad implications for the agency's future. "This is a major blow to consumer protection," said Chris Peterson, a law professor at the University of Utah and former advisor to former CFPB Director Richard Cordray. "This is going to make it harder for the bureau to do its work in the short term and it's potentially devastating in the long term because the way that Congress set up the funding has been called into question." The CFPB responded by saying: "There is nothing novel or unusual about Congress's decision to fund the CFPB outside of annual spending bills," according to a statement. "Other federal financial regulators and the entire Federal Reserve System are funded that way, and programs such as Medicare and Social Security are funded outside of the annual appropriations process. The CFPB will continue to carry out its vital work enforcing the laws of the nation and protecting American consumers." The three-judge panel, all appointed by then-President Donald Trump, blamed Congress in its 39-page decision for creating an agency "unique across the myriad independent executive agencies across the federal government," because "it is not funded with periodic congressional appropriations." The Dodd-Frank Act created the CFPB as an independent agency within the Federal Reserve System. The bureau is funded through up to 12% of the Fed's operating expenses. If the case ultimately goes before the Supreme Court and the court finds that the CFPB's funding structure is unconstitutional, then the agency would be subject to the annual appropriations process.
All of CFPB's past actions threatened by appeals court decision An appeals court decision that invalidated the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's payday lending rule has far broader implications, potentially opening all of the agency's past rules and other actions to legal challenges, say regulatory and constitutional lawyers. On Wednesday, a panel of three judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit vacated the CFPB's payday lending rule that had been challenged by two Texas trade associations. The three judges, all appointed by then-President Donald Trump, ruled that the CFPB's funding source — the Federal Reserve's operating budget and not congressional appropriations — violates the Constitution's separation of powers because it gives the executive branch too much, and the legislative branch too little, control of a federal agency. The panel's decision is not binding, and the CFPB has roughly two weeks to seek a review of the case by the full appeals court. If that appeal is accepted, the three-judge panel's decision would be automatically vacated until the entire court hears the case, Community Financial Services Association of America v. CFPB. Alternatively, the CFPB could ask the Supreme Court for a review, lawyers said. The ruling creates an opportunity for companies to challenge the CFPB further and attempt to unwind the bureau's 12-year history of rules and enforcement actions. A broad application of the court's theory could tie up the CFPB in litigation for years unless it prevails on appeal, some lawyers said. "Every single CFPB rule on the books and enforcement actions could be subject to a legal challenge," said Patricia McCoy, a professor at Boston College Law School. "The only thing that has been invalidated is the payday lending rule, but the reasoning is that any activity that the CFPB does is funded by the Federal Reserve and in the future could be subject to potential challenge as unconstitutional."
CFPB signals imminent crackdown on 'junk data' in credit reports -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau signaled it may soon crack down on the big three credit bureaus for "inconsistent or impossible" data on credit reports that hurt consumers' ability to secure loans, housing, and employment.Impossible or inconsistent data can range from a notation on a consumer's credit report that the person is dead despite the fact their other accounts are marked as current and paid off, or a report that they opened a line of credit before they turned 18 or even before they were born.The CFPB calls such errors "junk data," much like the "junk fee" moniker it has for overdraft fees and insufficient fund penalties. Errors on credit reports are the single most common cause for complaint when consumers contact the CFPB, according to the agency's announcement of an advisory opinion on the matter, and junk data is a particularly egregious source of those complaints.But it's not just that the errors are common. The credit bureaus should easily be able to flag such impossible or inconsistent information without the consumer needing to take action, according to the CFPB.Equifax, TransUnion and Experian responded to the Thursday CFPB action through the Consumer Data Industry Association, a trade group that represents the three."The credit reporting industry is committed to helping consumers resolve potential discrepancies on their credit reports and we are working diligently across the financial ecosystem to make sure data on consumer credit reports is reliable and comprehensive," an association spokesman said. "We recommend consumers proactively monitor their credit reports so that they are more aware of what lenders may see and so that they can detect any potentially inaccurate or incomplete information provided to the credit bureaus."The spokesman referred consumers to the online dispute forms for Equifax, Experian, andTransUnion and provided a reminder that, through the end of 2023, consumers can access their credit report for free on a weekly basis at AnnualCreditReport.com.According to the National Consumer Law Center, a consumer advocacy group, consumers who do what the credit bureaus suggest — file disputes when they spot an error — often just face a bureaucratic nightmare that leads nowhere, so they have to resort to lawsuits. And, according to the center, this has long been the case.
BankThink: Bankers must challenge the overly complex, Fed-driven CRA overhaul | American Banker - When the comment period for the proposed overhaul of the Community Reinvestment Act closed in August, the vast majority of the 650 submissions expressed some concerns about it. But the 102 comments from the banking industry generally questioned or outright opposed it.Having been involved with CRA since 1977 and especially the last major revision in 1995, I was surprised by the small number of comments. The 1995 reforms, spearheaded by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, took three years, because of continuing challenges by the Federal Reserve. It was the result of seven public hearings and 13,900 comments, approximately one per bank at that time.The 239-page December 2019 joint OCC-Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. notice of proposed rulemaking (NPR) generated 7,500 comments (1.4 per bank), more than 10 times the 650 comments from the 679-page May 5, 2022, NPR (0.14 per bank).Smaller number of comments on the current NPR is likely the result of a relatively short 90-day comment period provided for a very complex and lengthy document. It may, however, also be a reflection of CRA reform burnout.The OCC's final rule under the Trump administration was rescinded, so perhaps the same fate awaits the Biden administration's current NPR with a repopulated Congress after the November midterm elections. Why bother commenting on a reform that may again be rescinded?Billed as a "joint" effort, the current NPR was really the handiwork of the Fed, guided by Vice Chair Lael Brainard. With former Fed officials running Treasury and the OCC, the seeminglyrudderless FDIC had no choice but to go along for the ride.Full of equations and complex rules, the Fed-driven proposal reads more like a Ph.D. dissertation than something for CRA practitioners. Making matters worse, industry requests to extend the 90-day comment period were refused.Just 16% of the 650 comments were from the industry, because bankers were understandably nervous about criticizing their regulators. Using the safety in numbers approach, one-third of the industry comments came from trade groups or took the form of joint comments.The comments from the Bank Policy Institute and American Bankers Association stood out because they suggested a possible legal challenge. This would be similar to the legal challenge against the OCC's final rule filed by two community groups.While the community groups' challenge had several legal arguments, an industry challenge to the current NPR would have a much stronger legal basis.
Dozens of bank trade groups ask FHFA to change its tangible capital rule - Dozens of bank trade groups are urging Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Sandra Thompson to modify a rule to allow banks to continue accessing low-cost funding from the Federal Home Loan Bank system even if they report having negative tangible capital. The American Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers of America and nearly 75 state bank trade groups sent a letter Tuesday asking Thompson to align the FHFA's tangible capital rule with the more up-to-date Tier 1 capital rules used by prudential regulators. Higher interest rates have forced banks of all sizes to make mark-to-market adjustments on their investment portfolios resulting in unrealized losses. Roughly 100 community bankers are likely to report having negative tangible capital on call report data that is trickling in this month and through early November. "The Federal Reserve's move toward a less accommodative monetary policy stance means that markets are adjusting to a new environment, and as such, valuations of even the safest securities are affected," the trade groups said. Under the FHFA's current rule, banks with negative tangible capital are restricted from accessing the Federal Home Loan banks for funding unless they get a waiver from their prudential regulator. Some community banks could face a liquidity crisis if the rule is not changed. Bankers that tap the Home Loan banks could be restricted from renewing existing Home Loan bank funding beyond 30 days unless a bank's prudential regulator agrees to a waiver. "Failure to fix this inconsistency in the regulations may exacerbate stress as banks continue to navigate rising rates and the ongoing macroeconomic volatility," bankers said in the letter. The FHFA follows generally accepted accounting principles, known as GAAP, while prudential regulators use regulatory accounting principles. A key difference is that the regulatory bank capital regime allows all but the largest banks the option of excluding unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale debt securities. As a result, market swings do not affect regulatory capital levels, bankers said.
Credit Suisse to pay $495 million to settle legacy RMBS case - Credit Suisse Group agreed to pay $495 million to settle the largest remaining case related to its role in selling residential mortgage-backed securities in the U.S. that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.The Swiss bank said in a statement on Monday that it's "fully provisioned" for the payment, which will resolve claims tied to more than $10 billion in such securities.The New Jersey attorney general had alleged damages of $3 billion in a litigation case filed in 2013.Credit Suisse is among lenders that have been defending themselves against claims over the sale of mortgage securities that plummeted in value during the 2008 crisis. It paid $600 million last year to settle a lawsuit with MBIA Insurance over mortgage securities.The banks have faced allegations that they misrepresented the quality of the home loans underpinning these securities in order to win buyers, exacerbating the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis. Credit Suisse faces a longer list of legal woes. Last week, the prospect of fresh legal risks for the bank arose when U.S. authorities launched a probe investigating whether the bank helped clients hide assets. In Singapore, a Credit Suisse trust is awaiting the outcome of a trial that will determine its liability for losses tied to a rogue banker. In June, Switzerland's top court handed the bank a guilty verdict in an historic case over money laundering.
Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in September - From Black Knight: Black Knight: September Prepayments at More Than 20-Year Low on Spiking Interest Rates; Foreclosure Starts Fall 9% from August, Remain 53% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels• Prepayment activity dropped -14.9% to a single-month mortality (SMM) rate of 0.57% in September – below the recent record of 0.59% set in January 2019 – to the lowest level since November 2000
• The national delinquency rate inched down -0.2% from August to 2.78%, just 3 basis points above the record low set in May 2022, with the number of past-due mortgages holding relatively steady across the board
• The number of borrowers a single payment past due rose by 1%, while 90-day delinquencies fell -1.5 % in September and are now only 24% above the pre-pandemic serious delinquency rate
• Foreclosure starts fell 9% from August to 18,400 – 53% below pre-pandemic levels – with starts initiated on 3% of serious delinquencies, still less than half the rate of the years leading up to the pandemic
• Active foreclosure inventory held steady in the month at volumes that have remained subdued in early 2022 after the record lows of 2021 due to widespread moratoriums and forbearance protections
• Prepays (SMM) edged up 1.5% for the month, due to calendar-related effects, but are still down by 69% year-over-year as rising rates continue to put downward pressure on both purchase and refinance lending
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 0.2% in September compared to August and decreased 29% year-over-year.
Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.78% in September, down from 2.79% in August. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process was unchanged in September at 0.35%, from 0.35% in August. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 577,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 50,000 properties year-over-year.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.69% in September" - Note: This is as of September 30th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.69% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.72% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.69% as of September 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 345,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.30%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased 1 basis point to 1.33%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 12 basis points to 1.14%.“The overall number of loans in forbearance dropped in September, but the pace of forbearance exits slowed to a new survey low and new forbearance requests continued to come in. This dynamic in turn prevented any substantial improvement in the forbearance rate,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The COVID-19 federal health emergency is still in effect and in most cases, borrowers can still seek initial COVID-19 hardship forbearance.”Added Walsh, “In the near-term, the number of loans in forbearance will likely increase for another reason – the recent devastation caused by Hurricane Ian in Florida, South Carolina, and other states. MBA’s Loan Monitoring Survey requests that servicers report all loans in forbearance regardless of the borrower’s stated reason – whether pandemic-related, due to a natural disaster, or another cause.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.The share of forbearance plans is decreasing, and, at the end of September, there were about 345,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
Monthly Mortgage Payments Up Record Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Monthly Mortgage Payments Up Record Year-over-year Excerpt: The following graph shows the year-over-year change in principal & interest (P&I) assuming a fixed loan amount since 1977. Currently P&I is up about 59% year-over-year for a fixed amount (this doesn’t take into account the change in house prices). This is above the previous record increase of 50% in 1980. This assumed a fixed loan amount - if we add in the year-over-year increase in house prices, payments would be up over 70% YoY for the same house. This is one of the reasons I've argued Housing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons. ... In the 1980 period, new home sales fell about 40% YoY and about 60% from the peak in the 1970s to the trough in 1980. A similar decline might push new home sales down to around 400 thousand SAAR in coming months. ... Even though we can expect significant further declines in new home sales and single-family housing starts, the good news for the homebuilders is activity usually picks up quickly following an interest rate induced slowdown (as opposed to following the housing bust when the recovery took many years).
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey; Lowest Level Since 1997 --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 14, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 38 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage applications are now into their fourth month of declines, dropping to the lowest level since 1997, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.94 percent – the highest level since 2002,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The speed and level to which rates have climbed this year have greatly reduced refinance activity and exacerbated existing affordability challenges in the purchase market. Residential housing activity ranging from new housing starts to home sales have been on downward trends coinciding with the rise in rates. The current 30-year fixed rate is now well over three percentage points higher than a year ago, and both purchase and refinance applications were down 38 percent and 86 percent over the year, respectively.” Added Kan: “With rates at these high levels, the ARM share rose to 12.8 percent of all applications, which was the highest share since March 2008. ARM loans continue to remain a viable option for borrowers who are still trying to find ways to reduce their monthly payments....The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 6.94 percent from 6.81 percent, with points decreasing to 0.95 from 0.97 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 38% year-over-year unadjusted.The purchase index is 10% below the pandemic low and at the lowest level since 2015.
Mortgage applications hit a 25-year low - New loan activity slowed further last week, leading application volumes down to a 25-year low, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of weekly mortgage applications based on surveys of association members, decreased 4.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the seven-day period ending Oct. 14. Application activity fell for the ninth time in 10 weeks and was 68% below its level during the same week a year ago. "Mortgage applications are now into their fourth month of declines, dropping to the lowest level since 1997," said Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist, noting the impact of interest rates."The speed and level to which rates have climbed this year have greatly reduced refinance activity and exacerbated existing affordability challenges in the purchase market," he said. The current 30-year fixed rate average reported by MBA members is well over three percentage points higher compared to the same time frame in 2021. The Refinance Index fell 7% week over week, with activity plummeting by 86% from one year ago amid 2022's high interest-rate environment. The share of refinances relative to overall activity also slipped to 28.3% from 29% the previous week. By comparison, refinances accounted for over 60% of volume at the start of the year.The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index also dropped 4% from the prior week and came in 38% below its level from seven days last year, as the housing slowdown makes an impactacross sectors. "Residential housing activity ranging from new housing starts to home sales have been on downward trends coinciding with the rise in rates," Kan said. Sluggish sales activity has also brought about monthly price drops across the country, according to housing research groups. The ongoing rise in interest rates and the resultant affordability challenges led Fannie Mae last week to predict prices would fall on an annual basis in 2023. The average purchase size last week did see an uptick, though, after falling below $400,000 for the first time in several months. The mean purchase amount reported on new applications increased 0.9% to $402,600 from $399,100 one week prior. Average refinance amounts headed higher as well to $275,200 from $265,600, a 3.6% rise. The overall average for all applications last week climbed 1.7% to $366,600 from $360,400, Adjustable-rate mortgages continue to see heightened interest with rates at their current levels, Kan said. After making up 11.7% of all applications a week ago, the ARM share rose to 12.8% of all applications, which was the highest since March 2008.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 1.5% in September - This morning's release of the September Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million units from the previous month's 4.78 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 4.70 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and a 23.8% decrease YoY. Here is an excerpt from today's report from the National Association of Realtors. Existing-home sales descended in September, the eighth month in a row of declines, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of the four major U.S. regions notched month-over-month sales contractions, while the West held steady. On a year-over-year basis, sales dropped in all regions.Total existing-home sales,1 https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, retracted 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million in September. Year-over-year, sales waned by 23.8% (down from 6.18 million in September 2021)."The housing sector continues to undergo an adjustment due to the continuous rise in interest rates, which eclipsed 6% for 30-year fixed mortgages in September and are now approaching 7%," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Expensive regions of the country are especially feeling the pinch and seeing larger declines in sales." [Full Report] In terms of median home sales prices (all), here's the latest: The median existing-home price3 for all housing types in September was $384,800, an 8.4% jump from September 2021 ($355,100), as prices climbed in all regions. This marks 127 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. It was the third month in a row, however, that the median sales price faded after reaching a record high of $413,800 in June, the usual seasonal trend of prices trailing off after peaking in the early summer. For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. The data since January 1999 was previously available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository and is now only available for the last twelve months.
Housing Bubble Woes: Home Sales Plunge, Prices Drop 7% in 3 Months, Price Reductions Surge. Mortgage Rates Spike by Wolf Richter -Sales of all types of previously owned homes – houses, condos, and co-ops – fell for the eighth month in a row, by 1.5% in September from August, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.71 million homes, according to the National Association of Realtors in its report. Compared to the peak in October 2020, sales were down 30%. Beyond the two lockdown months of April and May 2020, this was the lowest rate of sales since March 2014, and since the summer of 2012, indicating to what extent the housing market is frozen. Potential buyers refused to even look at prices that sellers want. Sellers refused to cut their aspirational prices to where the buyers might be – though there is a lot more price cutting going now than a year ago. And other potential sellers waited for a Fed pivot that would lead to lower mortgage rates and higher prices before they put their homes on the market – though the opposite is now happening (historic data via YCharts): These are sales across the US that closed in September, based on deals that were made earlier. So they just about entirely predated Hurricane Ian which made landfall in Florida on September 28. Compared to a year ago, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales was down 23.8%, the fourteenth month in a row of year-over-year declines (historic data via YCharts): Sales of single-family houses dropped by 0.9% in September from August, and by 23% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.22 million houses. Sales of condos and co-ops fell 5.8% in September from August, to 490,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 30% year-over-year. Sales by region: On a year-over-year basis (yoy), sales plunged in all regions. On a month-over-month (mom) basis, only the West showed no declines in sales from the desperately low levels in August: Northeast: -1.6% mom; -18.7% yoy. Midwest: -1.7% mom; -19.7% yoy. South: -1.9% mom; -23.8% yoy. West: 0% mom; -31.3% yoy. The median price of all types of homes whose sales closed in September dropped for the third month in a row, and is now down 7% from the peak in June. In terms of seasonality, the 7% decline was the largest for this period since the end of Housing Bust 1, and more than double the 3.2% decline during this period in 2021. The average decline during this period over the prior 10 years was 4.2%. In 2020, prices jumped during this period. In 2019, prices fell 4.9% during that period. And in 2018, prices fell 6.2% during this period, but the housing market was weakening as mortgage rates were heading to 5% amid QT, rate hikes, and swooning stocks. This monthly decline in prices whittled down the year-over-year price increase to 8.4%, down from the 20% to 25% increases at peak frenzy last year (historic data via YCharts): Active listings – meaning, total inventory for sale minus the properties with pending sales – rose to 732,000 homes in September, the highest since October 2020, up by 27% year-over-year for the third month in a row, according to data from realtor.com. Compared to pre-pandemic years, active listings remain low, in a sign that the housing market is sort of frozen, with sellers not interested in selling at prices where the buyers might be; and buyers not interested in buying at prices where the sellers are, and so there is this standoff that shows up in the plunge in sales.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.71 million SAAR in September - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 1.5% in September Existing-home sales descended in September, the eighth month in a row of declines, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of the four major U.S. regions notched month-over-month sales contractions, while the West held steady. On a year-over-year basis, sales dropped in all regions. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, retracted 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million in September. Year-over-year, sales waned by 23.8% (down from 6.18 million in September 2021). ... Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.25 million units, which was down 2.3% from August and 0.8% from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace – unchanged from August and up from 2.4 months in September 2021. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in September (4.71 million SAAR) were down 1.5% from the previous month and were 23.8% below the September 2021 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.25 million in September from 1.28 million in August. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was essentially unchanged year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2021. Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.2 months in September from 3.2 months in August. This was close to the consensus forecast.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 34% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15% - Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 15, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 34% above one year ago. ... This week’s big jump in the active inventory trend (from 31% last week to 34% this week), even as new listings remain low, suggests that buyers are likely being squeezed by the renewed advance of mortgage rates which were very near 7% last week and are likely to top that mark this week. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 15% from one year ago. This week marks the fifteenth straight week of year over year declines in the number of new listings coming up for sale. Seasonally, fewer homeowners contemplate a home sale as the temperature cools and the holidays approach. Still, the consistent declines relative to one year ago signal dwindling enthusiasm on the part of potential sellers. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July. Then the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row. This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales have fallen sharply.Now YoY inventory is increasing again, suggesting sales are off more than new listings.
Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian - Less than a month after Hurricane Ian caused widespread devastation to southwestern Florida, investors and other buyers are scouring for housing deals in a region where home prices have soared in recent years. Demand remains strong from both locals and out-of-staters, according to residential real-estate agents in Naples, Fla., and other areas near the path of the Category 4 storm. They say they have received numerous inquiries from people still interested in relocating to the Sunshine State, or hoping to pick up distressed properties.
Housing Bubble Woes: Plunge in Buyer Traffic & Homebuilder Confidence a Lot Faster than During Housing Bust 1 by Wolf Richter - Traffic of prospective buyers of new single-family houses plunged to the lowest since 2012, excluding the two lockdown months April and May, and is now approaching even the levels of those two lockdown months, according to data today from the National Association of Home Builders. The NAHB index for traffic of prospective buyers dropped to 25, about where it was in mid-2007, well on the way down into Housing Bust 1. From 2008 through 2011, the index hovered around 10. Only this time, the descent is happening a lot faster than in 2005-2007: Traffic is a sign of interest among potential homebuyers, but many of them lost interest amid still sky-high prices and holy-moly mortgage rates of around 7%. The response from homebuilders is to reduces prices and offer incentives (including mortgage-rate buydowns, anything to avoid the stigma of a price reduction). The overall confidence of builders of single-family houses fell for the 10th month in a row in October, as “rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks, and elevated home prices continue to weaken the housing market,” the NAHB report said. With today’s index value of 38, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is now nearly where it had been in May 2020 during the lockdown, and below where it had been in February 2007, on the way down into Housing Bust 1. Current descent much faster than during Housing Bust 1. From April this year, when mortgage rates began to bite, until October, the index dropped by 39 points in six months (from 77 in April to 38 in October). When Housing Bust 1 took off for homebuilders in October 2006 (index at 68), the index dropped in six months by 17 points. There was never any 6-month period during Housing Bust 1 when the index dropped anywhere near 39 points. The fastest drop was 24 points in the 6-month period that ended in September 2009. The current 6-month drop now nearly matches the 6-month plunge through lockdown April 2020: Home builder confidence by region: The NAHB’s regional Housing Market Index plunged the most and the fastest in the West (red line in the chart below). From its high this year in March (91), it plunged by 66 points in seven months. . The NAHB index for current sales dropped by 9 points to an index level of 45, the eighth month in a row of declines. This means that more builders rated current sales as “poor” rather than “good” (50 is even). The NAHB index for future sales dropped 11 points, to an index level of 35, the lowest since June 2012, coming out of Housing Bust 1. And on the way down into Housing Bust 1, the descent reached that level in July 2007. Homebuilders can improve sales by cutting prices and by using various incentives and mortgage rate buydowns (when the builder subsidizes the mortgage). Homebuilders cannot just sit on the homes they’ve started building or have already completed. They must sell them one way or the other. According to the Burns Home Builder Survey for September, by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, prices net of incentives had started to decline from month to month in late spring, with year-over-year price increases falling from the 20%-range in May, to 11% in September. “Very likely this chart [of year-over-year price changes net of incentives] ends the year flat to slightly down given market momentum we’re picking up on the ground, tweeted Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns (click on chart to enlarge):
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.439 million Annual Rate in September -From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,439,000. This is 8.1 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,566,000 and is 7.7 percent below the September 2021 rate of 1,559,000. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 892,000; this is 4.7 percent below the revised August figure of 936,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 530,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,564,000. This is 1.4 percent above the revised August rate of 1,542,000, but is 3.2 percent below the September 2021 rate of 1,615,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 872,000; this is 3.1 percent below the revised August figure of 900,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 644,000 in September. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in September compared to August. Multi-family starts were up 18.5% year-over-year in September. Single-family starts (red) decreased in September and were down 14.6% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. Total housing starts in September were below expectations, and starts in July and August were revised down, combined.
September Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction -Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: September Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 800 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This is below the previous six months, and 28 thousand below the peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints. Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 910 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since February 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are 1.710 million units under construction. This is the all-time record number of units under construction.
AIA: Architecture Billings Index "Moderates but remains healthy" in September - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index moderates but remains healthy: For the twentieth consecutive month architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in September, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).The AIA Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for September was 51.7 down from a score of 53.3 in August, indicating essentially stable business conditions for architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month). Also in September, both the new project inquiries and design contracts indexes moderated from August but remained positive with scores of 53.6 and 50.7, respectively. “While billings in the Northeast region and the Institutional sector reached their highest pace of growth in several years, there appears to be emerging weakness in the previously healthy multifamily residential and commercial/industrial sectors, both of which saw a decline in billings for the first time since the post-pandemic recovery began,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Across the broader architecture sector, backlogs at firms remained at a robust 7.0 months as of the end of September, still near record-high levels since we began collecting this data regularly more than a decade ago.”
• Regional averages: Northeast (54.6); Midwest (52.1); South (51.7); West (51.6)
• Sector index breakdown: institutional (58.9); mixed practice (50.3); commercial/industrial (49.6); multi-family residential (47.9)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.7 in September, down from 53.3 in August. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has been positive for 20 consecutive months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment into 2023. Note that multi-family billing turned down in September, and if that continues, we will see a downturn in multi-family starts sometime in 2023.
100,000 people applied for LA's Section 8 housing lottery on the first day: You can still apply - Los Angeles' Section 8 housing waitlist lottery officially opened to the public just two days ago. Since then, the Housing Authority of the City of Los Angeles (HACLA) tells FOX 11 more than 100,000 applications were received on the first day alone. That's a 24% increase from when the waitlist last opened five years ago. The program provides rental assistance to eligible individuals and families by paying a portion of their rent directly to private landlords. Applications will be accepted until Sunday, Oct. 30 at 5 p.m. At the end of the application period, Housing Authority will use a computer-randomized lottery to select up to 30,000 applicants for placement on the Section 8 Waiting List. Applicants must fall into the federal "very low-income" category. For individual tenants, their annual income cannot be more than $41,700. The annual income threshold for a family of four is $59,550. Vouchers are only available to U.S. citizens, immigrants with legal authorization or families with "mixed status" with at least one household member that has legal immigration status. For more information on eligibility requirements, tap or click here.
Americans Will Pay the Most in 25 Years to Stay Warm This Winter - Americans trying to keep warm this winter are poised to spend the most on heating in at least 25 years. US households face an average power bill of $1,359 this winter, the highest since at least 1997, according to the Energy Information Administration. While much of that spike is driven by higher natural gas costs, homes that rely on oil for heat -- such as in the Northeast -- will be hit even harder, with an average bill of $2,354. The outlook comes as a global shortage of diesel and natural gas set up a tough winter for households across the globe. In Europe, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated an already tight gas market, governments are making contingency plans to keep the heat flowing and the lights on. Higher energy costs are adding to historic inflationary pressures with consumers already paying more for everything from gasoline to groceries. In the US, diesel supplies are at the lowest seasonal level on record, while gas stockpiles are 6% below the five-year average. The energy crunch will predominantly impact the US northeast, which has limited gas pipeline capacity and relies on diesel for heat. Prices for natural gas and distillate -- which includes heating oil -- are both seen rising nearly 30% this winter, the agency said. While gas inventories could build with higher US production, distillate output is seen holding to last year’s level while the war and energy crisis in Europe limit imports to the East Coast.
Inflation-Driven Social Security Increase Could Lead To More Inflation Social Security recipients will be getting a big raise in 2023. That’s good news if you’re receiving benefits from the program, but not so great if you’re hoping inflation will abate any time soon.The Social Security Administration recently announced an 8.7% cost of living adjustment (COLA) for next year. That goes on top of a substantial 5.9% COLA for 2022. The 2023 increase is the largest in 40 years.The COLA will translate to an additional $140 per month for the average Social Security recipient.The last time Social Security recipients got a bigger raise was in 1981 when the COLA was 11.2%.The increase will add about $100 billion of spending per year. The Social Security Board of Trustees said the trust fund can pay full benefits through 2035. After that, the board projects the program will be able to pay 80% of benefits.A spokesperson for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget told CNBC the COLA could accelerate the depletion of the trust funds by at least one calendar year.The big COLA is in direct response to the ongoing inflation problem. The 8.2% annual increase in September is just one in a long line of big CPI prints over the last year. Unfortunately, the COLA increase won’t cover all of the rising costs seniors face.The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA based on a formula that uses the “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers” (CPI-W). Like most government numbers, it doesn’t actually reflect the actual cost of living for most retirees. According to calculations done in 2020, Social Security benefits had lost 33% of their buying power since 2000. And that was in the era of “low” inflation.
LA Port Traffic Declined in September - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.5% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending in August. Outbound traffic increased 0.2% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were down 18% YoY in September, and exports were up 2% YoY. It is possible that exports have bottomed after declining for several years (even prior to the pandemic).
U.S. Industrial Production Rises More Than Expected In September - Industrial production in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of September, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. The Fed said industrial production rose by 0.4 percent in September after edging down by a revised 0.1 percent in August. Economists had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.2 percent dip originally reported for the previous month. The stronger than expected growth came as manufacturing climbed by 0.4 percent in September, matching the increase seen in August. "The 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output in September, together with some modest upward revisions to previous months, suggests that the factory sector is just about holding up despite the deterioration in the global manufacturing outlook - particularly in China and Europe," said Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics. "That supports our estimate that third-quarter GDP growth was an above-consensus 3.3% annualized," he added. "But we doubt that U.S. manufacturing can defy gravity for much longer, with the latest survey evidence consistent with outright declines in output soon." Mining output also advanced by 0.6 percent in September after coming in unchanged in August, while utilities output slipped by 0.3 percent after plunging by 3.3 percent in the previous month. The report also showed capacity utilization in the industrial sector crept up to 80.3 percent in September from an upwardly revised 80.1 percent in August. Economists had expected capacity utilization to come in unchanged at the 80.0 percent originally reported for the previous month. Capacity utilization in the manufacturing and mining sectors inched up to 80.0 percent and 88.8 percent, respectively, while capacity utilization in the utilities sector edged down to 72.8 percent. "Industrial production has remained surprisingly upbeat, but the sector is unlikely to maintain its resiliency as lingering pent-up demand fades and economic headwinds strengthen," said Oren Klachkin, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics. "We look for the industrial sector to suffer a downturn as the economy experiences a mild recession in the first half of 2023," he added. "Weakening demand, soaring interest rates, and supply chain difficulties will pose significant challenges for industrial activity in the months ahead."
The Big Four: Industrial Production Up 0.4% in September -- This morning's report on Industrial Production for September shows a 0.38% increase month-over-month, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 0.1% and a new high. The year-over-year change is at 5.33%, up from last month's YoY increase. Here is the overview from the Federal Reserve:Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in September and 2.9 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter. In September, manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent after advancing a similar amount in the previous month. The index for mining moved up 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities fell 0.3 percent. At 105.2 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in September was 5.3 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up 0.2 percentage point in September to 80.3 percent, a rate that is 0.7 percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average. [view full report]The chart below shows the year-over-year percent change in Industrial Production since the series inception in 1919, the current level is lower than at the onset of 8 of 18 recessions over this time frame of nearly a century.The Fed's monthly Industrial Production estimate is accompanied by another closely watched indicator, Capacity Utilization, which is the percentage of US total production capacity being used (available resources include manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities). In addition to showing cycles of economic growth and demand, Capacity Utilization also serves as a leading indicator of inflation.Here is a chart of the complete Capacity Utilization series, which the Fed began tracking in 1967. The linear regression assists our understanding of the long-term trend. We've highlighted the post-recession peak in November 2018. As of July 2022, Capacity Utilization has reached another new high.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Activity Remains Negative in October - The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -8.7, up 1.2 from last month's -9.9. The 3-month moving average came in at -4.1, up from last month. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -14.9, down from the previous month's -3.9. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.Here is the introduction from the survey:Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative, and the shipments index was little changed at a low but positive reading. The firms continued to report higher employment on balance, and both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices. The survey’s future general activity indexes suggest that the surveyed firms expect declines overall over the next six months.(Full Report)The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Declined in October - This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -9.1 was a decrease of 7.6 from the previous month's -1.5. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of -4.0.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report.Business activity declined modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to -9.1. New orders, unfilled orders, and shipments were all little changed from last month. Delivery times held steady, and inventories inched higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and the average workweek. Input price increases picked up, while the pace of selling price increases held steady. Looking ahead, firms do not expect business conditions to improve over the next six months. [Full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 214,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending October 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 228,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 211,500 to 211,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
There's a Traffic Jam on the Mississippi River - The Mississippi River’s water levels are so low that it’s messing with barge traffic and recreational boat travel along the crucial waterway. These are the lowest water levels that the river has seen in about 10 years, brought on by drought across the Midwest this year and low rainfall, CNN reported. As of Friday, the Coast Guard reports that there are 2,253 barges and 144 vessels that are lined up and waiting to move. This has occurred at two points of the river: around Vicksburg, Mississippi and near Memphis.The Coast Guard isn’t certain that traffic will resume this week. It reported that eight barges ran aground in the river, getting stuck in sand and mud that the vessels would have easily sailed over before this year. In order to helptraffic move along smoothly again, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has dredged several spots along the river, per CNN.Once the barges start moving again, they’ll have to carry about 20% less cargo than usual to avoid running around, which is bad news for the country’salready chaotic supply chains. This will especially affect the movement of agricultural goods throughout the U.S., including getting fertilizer for next year’s crops to farmers across several states.The alarmingly low water levels are also halting recreational travel along the river. Cruise ships regularly traversed the Mississippi before the drought, along with personal boats. A cruise ship that was supposed to launch from New Orleans this past weekend had to move to Baton Rouge, according to USA Today.The U.S. has been pummeled by drought this year. Back in March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted widespread drought through the spring and summer. By August, more than half of the country was experiencing some form of drought conditions. Climate change and human activity are contributing to more and more intense droughts. Farmers tending crops and livestock are struggling, and water use restrictionsare affecting millions of Americans.Other important rivers are running low. Earlier this year, the Colorado River was named the country’s most at-risk river. Extremely low water levels in the river’s basin are straining the ability for major reservoirs to provide driving water and hydropower to states out West.
Mississippi River Drought Imperils Trade on Vital US Waterway The Mississippi River is a vital US waterway that ferries key commodities between the heart of America and the Gulf Coast -- and drought is putting waterborne trade in jeopardy. Drought depleted river levels so much that in some spots vessels are getting stuck. One shipping company said low water levels are causing severe impacts to navigation not seen since 1988. It’s a key concern for transporting goods from a river basin that produces 92% of the nation’s agricultural exports, especially during harvest season.The drying Mississippi is reminiscent of this summer’s transportation woes on the Rhine River — and both are functions of a Northern Hemisphere drought worsened considerably by climate change. Drought in root-level soil this summer was roughly 20 times more likely north of the tropics, according to a report this week by World Weather Attribution, a scientific research group. The drought caused rivers to dry up around the hemisphere, and caused particular harm in Western Europe, where summer crop yields plummeted. The Mississippi River is currently closed near Stack Island, Mississippi, causing a backup of 117 vessels and 2,048 barges in the area as of midday Thursday, while a shutdown near Memphis, Tennessee has caused a smaller logjam, according to the Coast Guard. The US Army Corps of Engineers is dredging near Stack Island and the Coast Guard intends to reopen the waterway with restrictions at some point Friday.“Chronic low water conditions throughout the inland river system have had a negative effect on many who rely on the river,” said John Roberts, chief executive officer of Ingram Barge Co., the top US barge operator. Low water levels are affecting part of the company’s operations below Baton Rouge, Louisiana, he said Thursday in an emailed statement.Major barge lines on the river are turning away spot business as they struggle to meet demand for grains, metals and other raw materials already contracted well in advance. Shipping prices are soaring. About 35% of US thermal coal for export travels on the Mississippi, so this will significantly affect the market, said Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources LLC, a major US exporter. “It will be a big disruption to supply,” he said.
DC tent cities stain the nation's capital - The marble monuments of the nation’s capital have become neighbors to abject squalor — ever-expanding tent cities that are the most disgraceful examples of a trend bedeviling Democrat-led cities around the US.In the past two years, homeless encampments have exploded in Washington D.C., as both the city and federal governments lifted enforcement measures during the COVID-19 pandemic — and made it a no-brainer for itinerants to lay down roots by providing for their every need.A tour by The Post of the district’s major tourist areas this week found at least 35 vagrants in residence at a National Park Service site two blocks from the White House; more than 20 in the green spaces surrounding the State Department complex; and five across the street from the infamous Watergate Hotel.And these sites accounted for less than 5 percent of the estimated 120 tent cities in Washington D.C. “It’s wicked and it’s medieval,” said Robert Westover, 59, a longtime resident exasperated by the staggering surge. “We’re really letting people suffer on the street like animals? Somehow that’s progressive?” The decay and destitution on display shocks foreign tourists. “’The land of milk and honey’ — it means that in America you don’t lack anything,” said Elvis Shu, 39, a first-time visitor from Cameroon. “I know people don’t get hungry here, so I’m surprised indeed.” Moti, 48, a vacationer from Israel, said, “We didn’t expect to see the homeless here near the White House.”“I thought it was a rich city,” added his wife Orli, 54. “It’s a Democrat here in the White House, and the Democrats are more socialist, right?”The number of those living rough in the district has grown sharply since President Biden’s inauguration, observed Daniel Kingery, who pitched his tent in historic McPherson Square over two years ago.“Bleeding hearts have no brains, unfortunately,” Kingery said. “There’s so much [donated] food coming into this park, there’s not enough people to eat it. So they’ll give it to the birds or throw it away.”
Corporal punishment still used in US schools - China Daily - Between 2016 and 2021, teachers or other school staff in New York State would push, slap, hit, pinch, spank, drag, choke or grab students. The New York Education Department issued early October a memo to school administrators across the state cautioning corporal punishment is illegal, and they must report incidents to law enforcement. The memo was issued because an analysis showed there were 1,600 corporal punishment incidents between 2016 and 2021 that were substantiated by school officials or investigators. The analysis was based on records examined by the Times Union, a daily newspaper that focuses on Albany. The staff member involved was either terminated, allowed to resign, suspended, or issued a warning. Throughout the world, 135 countries prohibit corporal punishment in schools, but the US Supreme Court ruled that school corporal punishment was constitutional in 1977 and left the matter up to the state and local government. Currently New York and 30 other states prohibit corporal punishment in public schools, but such practice is legal in both public and private schools in 19 other states, primarily in the South, including Missouri. Cassville School District, in Missouri, had abandoned corporal punishment 20 years ago. The district, with 2,000 students, decided to reinstitute it claiming the decision was made at the urging of parents. Superintendent Merlyn Johnson told the Springfield News-Leader in August the decision to reinstate the practice started in early 2022 based from an anonymous survey conducted by parents, students, and school employees. "We started generating ideas on what we could do, and corporal punishment was one of the ideas," Johnson said, adding that there was more interest than expected in this "old-fashioned disciplinary measure". The school policy states that corporal punishment will be used only when other forms of discipline have failed and with the parents' and superintendent's permission, and the only corporal punishment allowed is "swatting the buttocks'' with a wooden paddle one or more times. "When it becomes necessary to use corporal punishment, it shall be administered so that there can be no chance of bodily injury or harm," according to the policy. "Striking a student on the head or face is not permitted."
Youngkin says Va. will not follow CDC recommendation on COVID shots - Gov. Glenn Youngkin indicated he will not follow a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention committee recommendation that COVID-19 vaccines be added to regular immunization schedules for children. The CDC recommends children and adults receive vaccines for hepatitis B, rotavirus and other diseases at certain age milestones. It has no ability to mandate shots for entry to school, a decision left to each state.On Wednesday, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted to add COVID shots to the CDC’s list of routinely recommended vaccines.But Youngkin announced on Twitter late Thursday that parents should make the decision on whether their children receive COVID shots.“The decision to vaccinate a child against COVID-19 is for Virginia parents to make about what’s best for them and their family,” Youngkin tweeted.
Florida To Revoke Licenses Of K-3 Teachers Who Discuss Gender Identity, Sexuality - The Florida Department of Education is planning to revoke or suspend the teaching licenses of K-3 teachers who discuss gender identity or sexuality with their students, according to the Washington Post, citing a new rule published by the department. The rule, proposed in September by Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr., would enforce a 2021 state law that prohibits instruction on gender identity and sexuality for children in kindergarten through third grade - the Parental Rights in Education Act, colloquially known by opponents as the "don't say gay" law. According to the rule, any teacher who "intentionally provide[s] classroom instruction" to K-3 students on those topics will face "revocation or suspension of the individual educator’s certificate, or the other penalties as provided by law."The 2021 law already requires schools to create a system via which parents can report teacher noncompliance with the law. If a school system does not address a parent’s concerns, the law makes it easy for parents to sue and says the Florida Department of Education can launch an investigation of the district.The rule on teachers’ licenses drew immediate condemnation from some teacher groups and LGBTQ advocates. Melanie Willingham-Jaggers, executive director of LGBTQ rights group GLSEN, said in a statement Thursday that the Florida rule “will harm LGBTQ+ students, who we know benefit by having supportive teachers and inclusive curriculum in the classroom.” -WaPoThe Dept. of Education rule was published as Hurricane Ian hit, and was first reported last Tuesday by the Progress Report.A spokesman for the department said on Thursday evening that "it should not be surprising that educators are at risk of having their certificates sanctioned if they violate state law. The proposed amendment will change nothing for teachers who follow the law and are focused on providing high-quality classroom instruction aligned to state academic standards."
Virginia Democrat Wants To Criminalize Parents Who "Misgender" Their Children - Making laws surrounding transgender “rights” is disturbingly a lot like the concept of spectral evidence taken from the days of the Salem witch trials. Trans identity is a purely subjective concept with zero concrete proof to support it – All a person has to do is simply say they are now whatever made-up gender they announce at the moment and the rest of the world is supposed to revolve around them.During witch trials witnesses could say that ghosts or spirits were telling them that a defendant was guilty of devilry, and the court was supposed to take these unfounded accusations as evidence. Similarly, under gender identity laws a person could say that they are trans and accuse other people of violating their “right” to be referred to in the pronouns they prefer. But it goes beyond the issue of personal feelings. Maybe a biological man suddenly decides he is a woman that wants to use a public woman's bathroom because there is an underage girl in there he has targeted, but he's not required to provide proof of being a woman and we are not allowed to stop him. We are required to accept his identity at face value based on his subjective claims. Otherwise, we are “assuming that person's gender.” We become the bad guys for applying common sense.Subjective law is the beginning of the end of a free society because it places the preponderance of evidence into the hands of lunatics and dictators that can fabricate their own proof at will. Virginia Democrat and delegate Elizabeth Guzman believes the opposite, though. She plans to introduce a bill in Virginia's upcoming fall session that would expand the definition of child abuse to include parents who refuse to use gender identify in the manner their children demand. In other words, if you are a parent in Virginia, your kids have the power in the household. All they have to do is say they are trans and if you do not obey then Child Protective Services can get involved.The bill would make misgendering of children a misdemeanor or possible felony. Guzman clarifies: “If the child shares with those mandated reporters, what they are going through, we are talking about not only physical abuse or mental abuse, what the job of that mandated reporter is to inform Child Protective Services (CPS)...That’s how everybody gets involved. There’s also an investigation in place that is not only from a social worker but there’s also a police investigation before we make the decision that there is going to be a CPS charge.”
'Wild Ride' Begins With Court Clash Over First US Law To Ban Child Transgender Surgeries - When America’s first law banning “gender transition procedures” for minors was passed in Arkansas last year, it spawned a wave of similar legislation.But legislative proposals in a dozen other states withered on the vine, while the Arkansas law faced an immediate court challenge that temporarily blocked the law from taking effect in July 2021. Since then, Alabama and Arizona moved forward and passed their own versions of the Arkansas act, while California took a 180-degree turn to counteract the bans. Last month, California became the nation’s first “sanctuary” state welcoming out-of-state youths who seek puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries.And now, the Arkansas law, called the Save Adolescents From Experimentation (SAFE) Act, remains closely watched from all sides as it heads to trial in Little Rock starting Oct. 17.The outcome will determine how lawmakers and activists nationwide plan their next moves in the evolving controversy over medical intervention for transgender-identifying minors.U.S. District Court Judge James Moody Jr. must decide a case that pits the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) against Arkansas officials who are defending the SAFE Act.The ACLU contends that the SAFE Act unconstitutionally denies “medically necessary” treatments for youths suffering from gender dysphoria, which is persistent distress about one’s gender.In its lawsuit, the ACLU is representing four gender-dysphoric children, ages 9 to 16 at the time of the filing in May 2021, and two doctors who provide “gender-affirming care.”The children’s parents described seeing marked improvements in attitude and reduced anxiety after counseling and, in some cases, treatments with hormones.The parents worry about what would happen to their children if the law were to take effect, requiring the treatment to abruptly stop. Arkansas Attorney General Leslie Rutledge counters that the state is obligated to protect juveniles from “experimental” treatments that can permanently alter their still-developing bodies. She and other supporters of the SAFE Act say that long-term effects of the treatments remain unknown.
Massachusetts: Teachers strike in Haverhill and Malden -Public schools in the Massachusetts towns of Haverhill and Malden are scheduled to remain closed today after teachers walked out Monday over failed contract negotiations. This followed overwhelming votes in both districts on Friday to authorize strike action. In Malden, talks between the school district and Malden Education Association (MEA), which is affiliated with the National Education Association (NEA), broke down Sunday evening when the School Committee halted negotiations, declaring an impasse after nine hours of talks.MEA President Deb Gesauldo said negotiations broke down over the issue of pay for paraprofessionals, sometimes known as teacher’s aides or teacher assistants. In a statement released by the Malden School Committee Negotiations Subcommittee, “Education Support Professionals” are to receive wage increases of 2.4 percent in year one and 2.5 percent in years two and three of the contract. These workers receive a starting salary of only $20,761.53 to $29,788.52, depending on experience, which amounts to a poverty wage.Teachers do not fare much better in the proposal, with a 4 percent raise in year one, 3 percent in year two and 2.5 percent in year three. With inflation currently running at 8.5 percent, this amounts to a pay cut for educators.Nearly 700 educators walked picket lines Monday at seven school locations around the city, including about 150 workers at Malden High School. Hundreds of educators and their supporters later rallied at Malden City Hall.SEP supporters distributed copies of the latest statement of the Northeast Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee, The crisis in education and the case for rank-and-file committees, and had discussions with teachers and parents at the rally. A special education teacher said he was opposed to the contract. “I heard that the school committee was proposing under 8 percent. And if anything, you know, I believe it should be at least at 8 or above, considering inflation right now is 8.2 percent,” he said. “We know that energy prices are going to increase in the upcoming months due to the shortage of natural gas and what’s going on in Ukraine. And when prices go up, they’re not going to come back down.
The crisis in education and the case for rank-and-file committees - Educators everywhere face an untenable crisis: low wages, long hours, short-staffing and impossible job pressures; nearly three years of pandemic-related illness, debilitation and death. These have taken an immeasurable toll on educators, and the problems are ongoing. Not only do we confront increasing attacks on our jobs. We, as part of the working class, confront a mounting crisis in the entire political and social order of world capitalism—from rising inflation and prices, to growing austerity, the threat of dictatorship and attacks on our democratic rights, environmental disaster and the unmitigated spread of disease and the very real threat of nuclear world war. These conditions are driving the upsurge of the class struggle internationally. In the US and Europe, across the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, millions of workers are initiating strike action against austerity and the devastating consequences of the pandemic and the US-NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. It is increasingly clear that to wage a real fight to defend our jobs and public education as well as to stop the pandemic and to prevent nuclear world war requires that we unite our struggles with those of workers across industries and internationally. The trade unions, which keep us isolated from each other and betray our interests at every turn, will not wage such a fight. We must do it ourselves, by expanding the network of rank-and-file committees as part of the International Workers’ Alliance of Rank-and-File Committees (IWA-RFC). In this explosive situation, every educator, student and parent who stands up now to build a rank-and-file committee can play a decisive role in leading the immense struggles of the working class on the immediate horizon. The most conscious expression of the need to free the working class from the trade unions is the campaign of socialist Mack Trucks worker Will Lehman, who is running for the presidency of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union. In his call for the building of a rank-and-file movement, Will speaks for millions of workers who must reject the notion that the workers have anything to gain from the capitalist system or from the parasitic layer of labor bureaucrats that act in coordination with the corporations and state apparatus to suppress the class struggle. Our committee stands in solidarity with his campaign and will seek to mobilize support for it among educators. The daily reality that we as educators face stands in stark contrast to the lying claim by US President Joe Biden that “the pandemic is over.” As governments at every level cut funding for pandemic safety resources, teachers and parents of our committee have reported that COVID-19 is spreading widely in their schools. As is the case across the US, in New York City, the largest school district in the US with over 1 million students, mitigation measures have been completely dropped and the education department has abandoned any efforts to conduct testing or contact tracing. Under conditions in which positivity rates are over 10 percent in the region and thousands are out sick, school administrations are conducting operations as if COVID-19 is merely an individual problem. At the same time, a historic, bipartisan assault on public education has been mounted against the American working class in the wake of the pandemic. In New York City, Democratic Mayor Eric Adams has gutted funds for education by hundreds of millions, if not over a billion dollars this year. The effect of this attack has been that hundreds of our coworkers—art teachers, band directors, early education and special education support staff, to name a few—have been “excessed” with little or no notice while we are left to pick up the pieces. In Boston, the threat to place the entire public school district into a state of “direct receivership,” placing public education in the hands of private interests, was used as a bludgeon to force workers to accept a pathetic contract for the 2022–23 school year.
Ohio retired teachers' pension fund suffers $5.3 billion loss as staff get bonuses — Ohio’s teacher retirement system paid out $10 million in staff bonuses the same year its pension fund lost over $5 billion, according to updated figures released Thursday.Two months after the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio (STRS) Board awarded its 100-member investment staff with hefty performance bonuses, the pension fund announced its net investment losses totaled $5.3 billion in the fiscal year ending in June 2022 — a 75% increase from the $3 billion in investment losses initially calculated, according to a copy of STRS’ unaudited financial statements.“It was bad enough that STRS rushed to award $10 million in staff bonuses after only losing $3 billion last year,” Robin Rayfield, executive director of the Ohio Retired Teachers Association, said in an email. “With this new data, we know now that STRS actually lost $5.4 billion last year and still awarded millions of dollars in bonuses to almost 100 bureaucrats.”In August, the board voted 9-2 to approve the bonuses because its investment staff outperformed the board’s performance benchmarks, according to STRS spokesperson Nick Treneff. The bonuses — which have been awarded every August for the past three years in accordance with STRS policy — are part of a five-year performance model, he said.Some retired teachers in Ohio said the hefty bonuses awarded to investors felt like a slap in the face to retirees who have not received a cost of living adjustment in their pensions for years. The board, however, approved a one-time 3% COLA for retirees in May. At Thursday’s meeting, Rayfield demanded STRS leadership return the $10 million in bonuses he claimed were “seemingly approved on misleading and incomplete financial data” that at the time indicated $3 billion in losses.“Everyone in the world knew that the numbers STRS used were way too good to be true and didn’t justify these bonuses,” Rayfield said. “But given that the real financial loss was more than 75% bigger, some of these board members owe Ohio teachers an apology and a return of their money.”But Treneff disagreed with Rayfield’s claims that the board “rushed” its performance-based bonuses and delayed reporting the pension fund’s losses.The sudden shift from $3 billion in losses to $5.3 billion in losses, Treneff said in an email, is because those numbers are calculated on a monthly basis, not annually, using fair market values and daily cash flows — meaning reported losses in any given fiscal year may change month-to-month as recalculations are made.And, like all other investors in private market assets, the STRS investment team receives “lagging valuations” that occasionally arrive after the pension fund submits its annual financial reports to comply with its mid-to-late September deadline, Treneff said. He cited a July Pensions & Investments report that found private market returns are lagging by three months, which Treneff called “consistent industry practice.”“For annual financial reporting purposes, the cut-off is typically in mid-to-late September and allows for adjustments to bring private market valuations current to the financial report fiscal year end,” Treneff said. “Certain market valuations will lag even beyond our annual financial reporting cut-off.”
Omicron Covid boosters appear to work, regardless of side effects -- If you already got your omicron-specific Covid booster, you might have experienced some side effects. Maybe even ones that were more intense than your previous shot. But there's no need to worry: Experts and new data say the new shots appear to work — regardless of whether you experience moderate, mild or no side effects at all. "Don't focus too much on side effects, because I really think that the main objective here is to get people to be protected. So focus on that benefit of the new vaccines," Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, a professor of pediatric infectious diseases at Stanford University's School of Medicine, tells CNBC Make It. The new boosters gained approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the CDC before they finished clinical trials. Butnewly released data from Pfizer and BioNTech's ongoing clinical trial gives a first glimpse of how well its new shots work on humans, showing that the new boosters generated a strong immune responseagainst omicron's BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. About 11.5 million Americans have rolled up their sleeves to get the booster since they were first sent out at the beginning of September, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More Americans could follow: Roughly a third of U.S. adults say they've already gotten one or intend to "as soon as possible," according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll released Sept. 30. Like previous Covid vaccines, the new boosters are designed to help you fight the virus by triggering an immune response in your body. When you get a vaccine, your immune system recognizes it as something foreign because it mimics a Covid infection without causing the "full-blown sickness," Maldonado says. Your immune system responds by producing an arsenal of weapons — including antibodies, memory B cells and T cells — that work together to hunt down the "foreign object" and remember how to fend it off in the future, she adds. Pfizer says its clinical trials were successful in inducing that immune response: A week after injection, participants had higher levels of antibodies against BA.4 and BA.5 in their blood than they did pre-injection. The drugmaker didn't specify how much higher those antibody counts were, but said it expects to release data measuring antibody levels one-month post-booster "in the coming weeks."
How long will immunity from new COVID boosters last 'in the real world'? - We are just six weeks into the rollout of the bivalent shots — so-called because they target two coronavirus strains, the ancestral version plus the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants currently circulating — and many of us are making holiday plans that involve travel and gathering with others.Meanwhile, bivalent booster eligibility has already expanded to include younger children — as of Wednesday, everyone ages 5 and up may receive one dose of Pfizer’s bivalent mRNA booster (for the Moderna version, it’s 6 and up) at least two months after completing their primary vaccine series or at least two months after their last dose of the original monovalent booster. Health officials are urging people to get the new boosters to help head off a potential winter COVID-19 surge, with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data showing less than 6% of eligible people had gotten the bivalent shot as of Monday. The CDC now says you are up to date on COVID vaccination after receiving a primary series and the most recent booster dose recommended.With that context, your first question was about the immunity we get from the bivalent booster and how long it lasts.Compared with the original booster, the bivalent boosters nearly double the levels of antibodies that can prevent omicron from infecting cells, according to Dr. Nadia Roan, a UCSF immunologist and investigator at the Gladstone Institutes. But “in the real world,” it’s not currently clear how much more protective the bivalent booster is, she said via email.As for immunity duration, if BA.4 and BA.5 stay dominant, the new booster could give “excellent protection against even a mild infection” for four to six months, UCSF infectious disease expert Dr. Peter Chin-Hong said in an email. However, if more immune-evasive variants gain a greater foothold, the booster could grant maximum protection for about two to four months, “decent” protection for about four to six months, “and less protection after six months,” he said.Both Roan and Chin-Hong agreed that those up to date on their vaccinations will have long-lived protection against serious disease and death from COVID — “perhaps more than a year without further boosters,” Chin-Hong said.
FDA, CDC push ahead with new COVID-19 boosters for kids without proper data | Fox News- Opinion By Nicole Saphier, M.D.The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized the bivalent COVID-19 booster shots from both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna in kids as young as 5 years old. Approval from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) followed in lockstep, as they have for the last two years. The new, updated bivalent booster targets the original version of SARS-CoV-2 as well as the currently circulating Omicron variants. The FDA points to their analysis of data from adults who received the Moderna bivalent vaccine and kids who received the old monovalent booster to guide their recent decision. They also said they are approving the Pfizer bivalent vaccine for kids because it is made in a similar fashion to Moderna, despite no supporting data submitted by Pfizer. The FDA authorized the bivalent booster for adults in late August without human data. The only available information at the time was from a small study performed on mice. Yet, it was approved, nonetheless. Within a few days of the FDA okaying the bivalent booster in kids, Pfixzer released human data on the bivalent booster in adults, which show an increase in circulating antibodies seven days after the dose. Does it offer increased protection against severe disease? Unclear. How long do the antibodies stay elevated? Unclear. To put this plainly, there are no data on the bivalent booster shot in kids. Not to mention, to be eligible for the new bivalent booster, kids must first get two doses of the outdated vaccine that has little benefit against Omicron. Less than a third of children ages 5 to 11 have received two doses of the vaccine, according to CDC data. The FDA is still recommending the initial two-dose series with the original vaccine before getting the bivalent booster. The short-lived, decreased effectiveness of the initial two-dose series against Omicron has been well documented, most recently in the New England Journal of Medicine, citing, "No effect against the omicron variantwas noted" 20 weeks after the primary series. They also noted that while the originally available booster dose increased protection against symptomatic disease for two to four weeks following injection, it quickly declined. Similar results were reported for the Omicron-specific monovalent booster that became available early summer. Comparable results will likely be seen with the bivalent booster in adults.
Boston University Creates COVID Strain With 80% Mortality In Mice -Researchers at Boston University have created a new strain of Covid-19 that has an 80% kill rate in humanized mice. In an effort to research what makes Omicron so transmissible - and funded in part by grants from the NIH and Anthony Fauci's NIAID, the researchers cobbled the Omicron spike protein to the original strain of Covid-19. The resulting virus was five times more infectious than Omicron."The Omicron spike (S) protein, with an unusually large number of mutations, is considered the major driver of these phenotypes. We generated chimeric recombinant SARS-CoV-2 encoding the S gene of Omicron in the backbone of an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 isolate and compared this virus with the naturally circulating Omicron variant," reads the pre-print.The new research, which has not been peer-reviewed, was conducted by a team from Boston and Florida."In...mice, while Omicron causes mild, non-fatal infection, the Omicron S-carrying virus inflicts severe disease with a mortality rate of 80 percent," the researchers wrote, adding that while the spike protein is responsible for infectivity, changes to other parts of its structure are responsible for its deadliness.Researchers attached Omicron's spike to the original wildtype strain that first emerged in Wuhan at the start of the pandemic.The researchers looked at how mice fared against the new hybrid strain compared to the original Omicron variant. -Daily Mail The researchers also looked at the effect of different strains on human lung cells grown in the lab - which Covid latches on to before instructing healthy cells to make copies of itself. They found that the modified strain produces five times more viral particles than the original Omicron strain (which all the rodents survived). This study provides important insights into Omicron pathogenicity. We show that spike, the single most mutated protein in Omicron, has an incomplete role in Omicron attenuation. In in vitro infection assays, the Omicron spike-bearing ancestral SARS-CoV-2 (Omi-S) exhibits much higher replication efficiency compared with Omicron. Similarly, in K18-hACE2 mice, Omi-S contrasts with non-fatal Omicron and causes a severe disease leading to around 80% mortality. This suggests that mutations outside of spike are major determinants of the attenuated pathogenicity of Omicron in K18-hACE2 mice. Further studies are needed to identify those mutations and decipher their mechanisms of action. –Biorxiv
Researchers’ tests of lab-made version of Covid virus draw scrutiny --Research at Boston University that involved testing a lab-made hybrid version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is garnering heated headlines alleging the scientists involved could have unleashed a new pathogen.There is no evidence the work, performed under biosecurity level 3 precautions in BU’s National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories, was conducted improperly or unsafely. In fact, it was approved by an internal biosafety review committee and Boston’s Public Health Commission, the university said Monday night.But it has become apparent that the research team did not clear the work with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which was one of the funders of the project. The agency indicated it is going to be looking for some answers as to why it first learned of the work through media reports.Emily Erbelding, director of NIAID’s division of microbiology and infectious diseases, said the BU team’s original grant applications did not specify that the scientists wanted to do this precise work. Nor did the group make clear that it was doing experiments that might involve enhancing a pathogen of pandemic potential in the progress reports it provided to NIAID. “I think we’re going to have conversations over upcoming days,” Erbelding told STAT in an interview. Asked if the research team should have informed NIAID of its intention to do the work, Erbelding said: “We wish that they would have, yes.”The research has been posted online as a preprint, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed. The senior author is Mohsan Saeed, from BU’s National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories. STAT reached out to Saeed on Monday but had not received a response by the time this article was published.In emailed comments, the university later disputed the claims made by some media outlets that the work had created a more dangerous virus.The email, from Rachel Lapal Cavallario, associate vice president for public relations and social media, said that the work was not, as claimed, gain of function research, a term that refers to manipulation of pathogens to make them more dangerous. “In fact, this research made the virus [replication] less dangerous,” the email stated, adding that other research groups have conducted similar work.
Effectiveness of Monovalent mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Hospitalization Among Immunocompetent Adults During BA.1/BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 Predominant Periods of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in the United States — IVY Network, 18 States, December 26, 2021–August 31, 2022 | MMWR – CDC - The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 or BA.1) became predominant in the United States by late December 2021 (1). BA.1 has since been replaced by emerging lineages BA.2 (including BA.2.12.1) in March 2022, followed by BA.4 and BA.5, which have accounted for a majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections since late June 2022 (1). Data on the effectiveness of monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against BA.4/BA.5-associated hospitalizations are limited, and their interpretation is complicated by waning of vaccine-induced immunity (2–5). Further, infections with earlier Omicron lineages, including BA.1 and BA.2, reduce vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates because certain persons in the referent unvaccinated group have protection from infection-induced immunity. The IVY Network† assessed effectiveness of 2, 3, and 4 doses of monovalent mRNA vaccines compared with no vaccination against COVID-19–associated hospitalization among immunocompetent adults aged ≥18 years during December 26, 2021–August 31, 2022. Among immunocompetent adults hospitalized within the IVY Network in 18 states, a monovalent booster dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine had limited overall effectiveness against hospitalization caused by currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants, likely because of waning immunity. Waning protection against COVID-19–associated hospitalizations was observed with either 2 or 3 doses of mRNA vaccine during the BA.1/BA.2 period with similar emerging trends during the BA.4/BA.5 periods. These findings demonstrate the importance of staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations through receipt of booster doses, which currently consist of bivalent mRNA vaccines for all eligible adults.
Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine will cost $110-$130 per dose - -Pfizer will charge $110 to $130 for a dose of its COVID-19 vaccine once the U.S. government stops buying the shots, but the drugmaker says it expects many people will continue receiving it for free. Pfizer executives said the commercial pricing for adult doses could start early next year, depending on when the government phases out its program of buying and distributing the shots. The drugmaker said it expects that people with private health insurance or coverage through public programs like Medicare or Medicaid will pay nothing. The Affordable Care Act requires insurers to cover many recommended vaccines without charging any out-of-pocket expenses. A spokesman said the company also has an income-based assistance program that helps eligible U.S. residents with no insurance to get the shots. A Pfizer executive said Thursday that the price reflects increased costs for switching to single-dose vials and commercial distribution. The executive, Angela Lukin, said the price was well below the thresholds “for what would be considered a highly effective vaccine.” Pfizer’s two-shot vaccine debuted in late 2020 and is easily the most common preventive shot that has been used to fight COVID-19 in the U.S. More than 375 million doses of the original vaccine, which Pfizer developed with the German drugmaker BioNTech, have been distributed in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That doesn’t count another 12 million doses of an updated booster that was approved earlier this year. The vaccine brought in $36.78 billion in revenue last year for Pfizer and was the drugmaker’s top-selling product. Analysts predict that it will rack up another $32 billion this year, according to FactSet. But they also expect sales to fall rapidly after that.
COVID patients should get treatments, health experts say — If you have COVID-19 and you are at risk from the virus, get tested and contact a doctor right away for an effective prescription drug treatment for the disease, the director of the state health department says. People who are mildly ill and young might not need treatment and can end their isolation after five days if symptoms have gone away. But it’s important to get treatment promptly if you are elderly or if you have a medical condition making your risk higher, said Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, the health department director. Vanderhoff offered his advice in a Thursday press conference as evidence continued to emerge that thousands of Americans are dying needlessly because they aren’t getting Paxlovid or monoclonal antibody treatments after getting sick with COVID-19. The treatments are more effective if they are obtained within five days of symptoms. The New York Times reported on Oct. 7 that many people who would benefit from getting COVID-19 treatments haven't obtained them, resulting in many needless deaths every day. Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House Covid response coordinator, told the Times that if every American 50 years old or older was treated with Paxlovid or monoclonal antibodies after getting COVID-19, daily deaths might fall to about 50 a day. The U.S. currently is averaging about 320 COVID-19 deaths a day, the CDC said Thursday. Vanderhoff said surveys show too many Americans don’t know effective treatments against COVID-19 are available. Vanderhoff said there’s evidence that respiratory diseases such as the flu and COVID-19 might be a big problem this winter, particularly as new omicron variants continue to emerge. He said that in addition to seeking prompt treatment if they are at risk, Ohioans also should get the current flu vaccine and should stay home if they become sick. Vanderhoff and his guest at the press conference, Cleveland Clinic infectious disease expert Dr. Steven Gordon, also made the following points:
- • Ohio resident deaths from COVID-19 have passed 40,000 and dozens are dying every week, so the threat hasn’t receded, although hospitalizations have fallen.
- • While data on the latest omicron variants is still emerging, evidence continues that vaccinations offer protection against severe disease. Every Ohioan should consider getting vaccinated and getting the latest boosters.
- • It’s safe to get a flu vaccination and a COVID-19 vaccination at the same time.
- • There’s evidence that vaccinated Americans are less likely to suffer from Long COVID, the lingering symptoms of COVID-19 that trouble many Americans.
- • The latest COVID-19 boosters, which protect against omicron variants, are now approved for Americans as young as five years old.
- • Taking steps to improve ventilation in a home, a business or a school lowers risk from COVID-19.
- • If you are sick and you can’t avoid being around others, wear a mask.
- • Immunocompromised Americans should consider getting injections of EVUSHELD for additional protection against COVID-19, although it’s not a substitute for vaccines, Gordon said. A fact sheet on EVUSHELD is available at the FDA website.
At least 7 million Americans suffering long COVID – CGTN - (video) A new Scottish study indicates it takes many months for a number of patients who contract COVID-19 to recover from the disease, if they recover at all. It’s one more piece of evidence suggesting so-called long covid is much more prevalent today than many people realize. The mysterious condition is the subject of a major U.S. study that’s now underway. CGTN’s Hendrik Sybrandy reports.
Ahead of winter surge, CDC covers up COVID-19 variant data - -On Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its variant monitoring graphs to show that the highly contagious and immune-evasive descendants of the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, known as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, now account for a combined 11.4 percent of all sequenced variants. However, the “update” came one day after epidemiologist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding tweeted these same data, which he noted were leaked to him from a “CDC-insider source” which informed him that the CDC had been sitting on this crucial information regarding the state of the variants in the US. After Feigl-Ding’s tweet went viral, garnering over 10,000 likes and over 5,000 retweets within hours, the CDC was forced to release the data publicly.This is among the most significant cover-ups by the foremost health agency in the US since the start of the pandemic. It is clear that the CDC deliberately concealed this vital information from the public for weeks, as part of the relentless propaganda campaign by the Biden administration and the corporate media to falsely claim that “the pandemic is over.”It remains unclear what exactly transpired within the CDC to account for their about-face. However, the timing of the CDC release one day after the anonymous leak suggests that the upper ranks within the CDC, including Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, are attempting to control the nature of these revelations and cover up the fact that the status of these new variants had been known.The screenshot below from the CDC’s variant monitoring graph, dated October 13, 2022, shows no BQ variants listed. On October 14, 2022, the updated graph notes the presence of these newer variants as far back as mid-August, with BQ.1 exceeding one percent of all sequenced variants on September 24 and BQ.1.1. reaching that threshold by the week of October 1. By the CDC’s rules, they have to break out these newer strains from all the ones being tracked and list their frequency.This is no simple oversight or an issue of incompetency on the part of the CDC, which has decades of experience in surveillance and monitoring. The BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants are being closely tracked in Europe and are contributing to the current fall-winter surge across the continent, with scientists throughout the world warning of the dangers of these and numerous other Omicron subvariants. The World Health Organization (WHO) has listed BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 as dangerous, closely followed subvariants.
Dangerous new COVID-19 variants threaten massive fall-winter surge - One month into the fall season in the Northern Hemisphere, it is clear that the next global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has begun. Due to the dismantling of testing and data reporting throughout much of the world, official infection figures are now largely worthless. The most accurate estimate of the real number of daily COVID-19 infections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) shows that 21 million people were infected globally on Wednesday, up 23 percent from the most recent trough of 17 million infections on September 27. Amid this deepening crisis, the ruling elites throughout the world have discovered the perfect cure for the pandemic: Simply ignore it and cover it up. At most, the broadcast news has brief segments on the pandemic once per month, while the print media just echoes the lies of the capitalist politicians. This propaganda has had a terrible impact on mass consciousness, and global society is wholly unprepared for the current surge. Having been told, in the words of US President Joe Biden, that “the pandemic is over,” many are failing to take even the most elementary precautions. As one observes the careless actions of the misled public, the image comes to mind of Pieter Bruegel’s famous painting “The Blind Leading the Blind.” But the political leaders are not blind. With malice aforethought, they have ignored the repeated warnings of epidemiologists and prioritized the profit interests of the corporate-financial elite over life. From the beginning of the pandemic, far-right figures have sowed deep confusion within the population, while over the course of the past year ostensibly liberal governments throughout the world have embraced the homicidal “herd immunity” strategy pioneered by the far right. The consequences of these policies are being realized as the world enters an even more dangerous situation. The growing wave is unlike anything seen since the start of the pandemic and has many scientists deeply concerned. As a result of the unhindered spread of COVID-19 over the past year, the Omicron variant has spawned hundreds of subvariants with different mutation profiles, creating what experts have termed a “variant soup.” The most worrying are a collection of highly-mutated “escape variants” that are more immune-evasive and infectious than all other Omicron subvariants. Particularly worrisome are BQ.1.1 and XBB, which are considered likely to become dominant throughout the world in the coming weeks. In Singapore, XBB became dominant two weeks ago and is fueling a massive surge of infections and reinfections. Studies indicate that both of these subvariants and others will render ineffective the last remaining monoclonal antibody drugs Evusheld and Bebtelovimab, threatening tens of millions of immunocompromised people throughout the world with greater risk of severe disease and death. One of the greatest concerns of experts is the mounting toll of Long COVID, a broad spectrum of prolonged symptoms that can affect nearly every organ in the body. A preprint study led by Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly of the Washington University School of Medicine found that compared to those with one COVID-19 infection, those with reinfection had double the risk of all-cause mortality, triple the risk of hospitalization, and nearly double the risk of at least one Long COVID symptom. The study notes, “The risks were evident in subgroups including those who were unvaccinated, had 1 shot, or 2 or more shots prior to the second infection.” Significantly, the XBB variant has propelled reinfections in Singapore from only 5 percent in mid-August to 17.5 percent by October 14, an unprecedented increase that underscores the dangers of the new “escape variants.” In an alarming press briefing Wednesday, World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 Technical Lead Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove stressed that the XBB subvariant “is showing significant immune-evasion.” She continued: “This is of concern for us, because we need to ensure that the vaccines that are in use worldwide remain effective at preventing severe disease and death. The more this virus circulates, the more opportunities it has to change.” She concluded, “We need to be able to track this virus. There are millions of cases being reported each week, but our surveillance has declined, testing has declined, sequencing has declined, and that, in turn, has limited our ability as an organization, with our expert networks around the world, to assess these [subvariants].”
Quick and stealthy new Covid-19 variants are poised to drive a winter surge - — A flurry of new Covid-19 variants appears to be gaining traction globally, raising fears of a winter surge. In the United States, these are BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BF.7, BA.4.6, BA.2.75 and BA.2.75.2. In other countries, the recombinant variant XBB has been rising quickly and appears to be fueling a new wave of cases in Singapore. Cases are also rising in Europe and the UK, where these variants have taken hold. Dr. Peter Hotez, who co-directs the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, says he thinks of them collectively as the Scrabble variants because they use letters that get high scores in the board game like Q, X and B. As the US moves into the fall, Covid-19 cases are dropping. Normally, that would be a reason for hope that the nation could escape the surges of the past two pandemic winters. But virus experts fear that the downward trend may soon reverse itself, thanks to this gaggle of new variants. Lumped together, the variants accounted for almost 1 in 3 new Covid-19 infections nationwide last week, according to the latest estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The updated bivalent booster vaccines and antiviral drugs like Paxlovid are expected to continue to be protective against severe outcomes from Covid-19 infections caused by the new variants. But the new variants are particularly devastating for millions of Americans who have weakened immune systems. New research suggests that changes in these variants make them impervious to the last lab-created antibodies available to help treat and prevent severe cases of Covid-19, and the US government has run out of money to incentivize the creation of new ones. It’s not clear whether this gang of new variants will continue to run around together, each sharing a piece of the Covid-19 infection pie, or whether one will rise to outcompete the others, as has happened in previous surges. Though they each descend from slightly different branches of the Omicron family tree, these new offshoots have evolved to share many of the same mutations, a phenomenon known as convergent evolution. Some experts think this convergence means we’ve entered a new phase of the evolution of the virus, one that will see circulation of several variants at the same time. “What is likely to happen is that we have several co-circulating, semi-dominate lineages going into the winter season,” “That’s because with convergent evolution, perhaps several different lineages can independently obtain similar transmissibility levels versus a single new variant taking over. “This is what predominantly happens for most pathogens, such as the flu and RSV,” “Now that the virus has adapted pretty well to human transmission, most of what is circulating has high fitness.” Maria Van Kerkhove, the Covid-19 response technical lead for the World Health Organization, said Wednesday that the large mix of new variants was becoming more difficult for WHO to assess because countries were dialing back on their surveillance. “So we need to be prepared for this. Countries need to be in a position to conduct surveillance, to deal with increases in cases and perhaps deal with increases and hospitalizations. We don’t see a change in severity yet. And our vaccines remain effective, but we have to remain vigilant,” she said.
Ohio's COVID-19 cases bounce back from hitting milestone – After recently falling out of the quintuple digits for the first time in months, Ohio’s latest COVID-19 report made that a brief respite.The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 11,097 new COVID-19 cases for the past week, bringing the case count above 10,000 week-over-week once again.While the new data puts the state back on the rise for infections, it has also consistently seen smaller case rates. Ohio reached a milestone case rate under 10,000 during the week of September 30. The state had not seen a case rate under 10,000 since mid-April prior to its recent break. It stayed in limbo between 10,000 and 20,000 before breaking higher in July for the first time in nearly five months. Cases climbed over 20,000 and stayed above that threshold for 10 weeks in a row.ODH began reporting COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths and vaccinations weekly instead of daily in mid-March after new infections slowed to a low level after the omicron wave. Over the past week, the state averaged around 1,585 new coronavirus cases per day. Ohio also saw more people hospitalized with the virus alongside higher case numbers. The 422 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days (about 60 per day) are a jump from 396 last week and 369 the week prior.While cases and hospitalizations are up, fewer people died from COVID-19 in the past week. ODH said 74 died from the virus, down slightly from 87 deaths the week prior. A total of 7,097 Ohioans started the COVID-19 vaccination process in the past seven days. Another 6,483 finished vaccination by getting their second dose. Around six in 10 Ohioans are partially or fully vaccinated.
Ohio health experts: New COVID-19 variants could drive winter surge - COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations are down across the Buckeye state, but health officials are eyeing new variants popping up in Europe and China and encouraging the public to get vaccinated and boosted. "This virus has proven its ability to mutate," said Ohio Department of Health (ODH) Director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff during a press conference Thursday. "With so many Ohioans now vaccinated or having some natural immunity we have much more immunity than we did last year," he said, but noted that even a mild case of COVID-19 can disrupt your life and puts vulnerable people at risk. The good news is that we have more tools to fight spread and prevent severe disease and death, said Dr. Steven Gordon, a Cleveland Clinic infectious disease doctor. The vaccines and the updated booster that targets the omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, which ODH figures show continue to circulate widely in Ohio, seem to continue to do a good job preventing severe illness even if you catch a newer different variant, Gordon said. Therapeutic medicines like Paxlovid, an antiviral pill that can be prescribed to high-risk people who are infected, also appear to be effective against the variants, he said. ODH's variant tracker indicates that some of these newer variants are already here. As of the end of September, seven omicron "variants of concern" had been detected in Ohio. The omicron variants are able to evade some of the body's defenses, like antibodies, but the immune system has more tricks up its sleeve to fight off infections, Vanderhoff explained. After vaccination, the body creates white blood cells, which provide cellular immunity that comes with long-lasting memory. So far, the new mutations have not been able to successfully evade that cellular immunity, said Vanderhoff. "We’re going to have to watch because they’re new variants," he said. "But broadly … we maintain a lot of confidence in the ability of our vaccines to protect against these new variants." People can also get immunity against the virus by being infected. It's less risky, however, to get immunity from vaccination, the health experts said. Vaccinations, booster shots and therapeutic drugs help to prevent severe disease, hospitalization and death. Staying home when you're sick and improving ventilation are also important ways to keep the virus from spreading, he said. And a mask — especially on public transportation or in healthcare settings — is always an option. "You should not feel stigmatized in any place where you feel more confident wearing a mask," Gordon said.
False coronavirus claim goes viral before experts can respond - The Washington Post -On Tuesday morning, a Fox News contributor claimed on Twitter that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was set to mandate that schoolchildren get coronavirus vaccines. By Tuesday evening, the claim was being repeated by the nation’s most popular cable news show, and had been amplified to millions more on social media.“The CDC is about to add the Covid vaccine to the childhood immunization schedule, which would make the vax mandatory for kids to attend school,” host Tucker Carlson tweeted, sharing a segment from his show that has been viewed more than 1.5 million times online.But the claim was wrong: The CDC cannot mandate that schoolchildren receive vaccines, a decision left up to states and jurisdictions, the agency and multiple public health officials said. The initial tweet by Nicole Saphier, a radiologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, also misconstrued a planned meeting of CDC advisers, who voted Wednesday to add coronavirus vaccines to the federal Vaccines for Children (VFC), a safety-net program that offers the shots at no cost. A separate meeting set for Thursday would address the agency’s immunization schedule for children.Public health experts said there is a legitimate debate over whether schoolchildren should be required to be vaccinated against the coronavirus — but the incendiary and erroneous claim by the Fox News personalities is the latest example of how critics can twist the facts about the CDC and the coronavirus, potentially contributing to lower vaccination rates, fading trust in federal health officials and other consequences for public health.“This is an all new level of dangerous misinformation,” Jerome M. Adams, who served as U.S. surgeon general during the Trump administration and as Indiana’s top health official, wrote in a text message to The Washington Post. “It could both harm kids (by derailing the VFC program, which helps disadvantaged children access vaccines) and endanger health officials (due to angry misinformed parents). We need to be able to have honest conversations about pros and cons of vaccinating children, without resorting to blatant misinformation.”The episode also illustrates how health-care misinformation can rapidly take hold, particularly around the coronavirus vaccine and fueled by many Americans’ frustrations and confusion with pandemic policies. But public health experts often feel stymied in their response, uncertain when to engage with false claims spreading virally. And when officials do weigh in, they are often constrained by their more deliberate, sometimes bureaucratic processes.
CDC corrects conservative claim: They cannot mandate COVID vaccines in schools - ABC News -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is pushing back on a claim made by Fox News' Tucker Carlson, who said on his show this week that a CDC decision was likely coming to force kids to get COVID-19 vaccines in order to attend school.But that's not actually within the CDC's authority, as the CDC pointed out in a rare tweet on Wednesday correcting Carlson, who has a history of criticizing COVID vaccine policy or sharing incorrect information about the shots. His segment was also fact-checked by Twitter, which threw a disclaimer below the video.Carlson claimed that at an upcoming meeting of the CDC's advisory committee, the agency was "expected to" update the list of routine childhood immunizations and include the COVID-19 vaccine, which would soon mean that kids "will not be able to attend school without taking the COVID shot." But the CDC clarified that its meeting, scheduled for Thursday, is an annual gathering to adjust and update the slate of vaccines doctors should recommend to their patients, from adults down to children, and that the list of vaccines does not dictate what requirements schools put into place."Thursday, CDC's independent advisory committee (ACIP) will vote on an updated childhood immunization schedule. States establish vaccine requirements for school children, not [the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices] or CDC," the agency wrote in response to Carlson's segment.Ultimately, the decision of whether schools require the COVID vaccine cannot be decided at the federal level by the CDC. It's made at the local level.
Lost wages and mounting debt: The economic blow of long COVID-19 in Oregon - Shelby Boyd started blacking out.All she’d done was stand up, but she was moving too fast. Boyd hunched over, pressing her hands to her knees. She forced slow breaths in and out.“I’m gonna sit down for just a second, sorry,” she said softly. “Shit.”Boyd had endured these near-blackouts for more than a year and a half. But despite her dizziness, brain fog and fatigue, she was heading to a new part-time job that day.She’d made the hard choice to try working again.Boyd first got COVID-19 in January 2021. She had a relatively mild case and started feeling better after a few weeks. But she recalls waking up in a panic one day, feeling “completely out of my mind.” She became intensely nauseous and lost control of her bowels. She sweated through her sheets night after night.Her doctor concluded she had long COVID-19. The condition debilitated her for much of that year. She lost her job in sales and marketing. She struggled for months just to get out of bed or tostand without falling. By August 2022, her family badly needed money. “We were desperate.”Medical professionals are still learning about long COVID, a range of conditions that can persist months, perhaps even years, after a COVID-19 infection. Symptoms include breathlessness, racing heart, cognitive impairment and profound fatigue. Long COVID can be hard to diagnoseand there is no single test for it. In fact, patients may have symptoms that routine medical testscan’t explain.President Joe Biden recently declared the pandemic over, but the financial pain caused by long COVID is far from through. The condition has forced millions of people, in Oregon and across the country, to make hard, private choices about how to survive on diminished income. And government safety net programs are still coming to terms with the often-baffling new illness.Nationally, up to four million Americans are out of work due to long COVID, according to a Brookings Institution analysis of experimental Census data this summer. The estimated cost is about $170 billion in lost wages annually.Researchers Robert Parker and Benjamin Clark from the University of Oregon found about 7% of working-age Oregonians — roughly 185,000 people — had experienced long COVID by spring of this year. That’s cost between $300 million and $1.1 billion in lost wages as of May, the researchers say, not counting replacement income such as paid sick leave or unemployment benefits. Caregivers who missed work to tend to family or friends with long COVID lost almost as much pay as people suffering from the illness.Regular activities can utterly deplete people with long COVID. “They can experience a crushing sense of fatigue, not so much right afterward, but 12 to 72 hours later,” Eric Herman, a physician who helped lead the creation of Oregon Health & Science University’s long COVID program, told OPB in the spring.Boyd, an OHSU patient, was so spent by her first week of work that she slept for three days. Exhaustion took a toll on her physical and mental health. One week, she missed four days of work. She was grateful her new boss was understanding.
White covid deaths increasing in U.S., surpassing death rate of Blacks - The imbalance in death rates among the nation’s racial and ethnic groups has been a defining part of the pandemic since the start. To see the pattern, The Washington Post analyzed every death during more than two years of the pandemic. Early in the crisis, the differing covid threat was evident in places such as Memphis and Fayette County. Deaths were concentrated in dense urban areas, where Black people died at several times the rate of White people. Over time, the gap in deaths widened and narrowed but never disappeared — until mid-October 2021, when the nation’s pattern of covid mortality changed, with the rate of death among White Americans sometimes eclipsing other groups. A Post analysis of covid death data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from April 2020 through this summer found the racial disparity vanished at the end of last year, becoming roughly equal. And at times during that same period, the overall age-adjusted death rate for White people slightly surpassed that of Black and Latino people.When the coronavirus appeared in the United States, it did what airborne viruses do — latched onto cells in people’s respiratory tract, evaded innate immune responses and multiplied. The pathogen, free of politics or ideology, had a diverse reservoir of hosts and found fertile pathways for growth in the inequalities born from centuries of racial animus and class resentments.Unequal exposure, unequal spread, unequal vulnerability and unequal treatment concentrated harm in communities that needed protection the most yet had the least. Cumulatively, Black, Latino and Native American people are 60 percent more likely to die of covid. But as the pandemic progressed, the damage done by the virus broadened, and the toxicity of modern-day politics came to the fore.The Post analysis revealed the changing pattern in covid deaths. At the start of the pandemic, Black people were more than three times as likely to die of covid as their White peers. But as 2020 progressed, the death rates narrowed — but not because fewer Black people were dying. White people began dying at increasingly unimaginable numbers, too, the Post analysis found.In summer 2021, the nation saw some of the pandemic’s lowest death rates, as vaccines, shoring up the body’s immune response, became widely available.Then came the delta variant. The virus mutated, able to spread among the vaccinated. As it did, an erosion of trust in government and in medicine — in any institution, really — slowed vaccination rates, stymieing the protection afforded by vaccines against severe illness and death.After delta’s peak in September 2021, the racial differences in covid deaths started eroding. The Post analysis found that Black deaths declined, while White deaths never eased, increasing slowly but steadily, until the mortality gap flipped. From the end of October through the end of December, White people died at a higher rate than Black people did, The Post found.
CDC: Over 212 nursing home workers have died from COVID-19 since August - Over 212 nursing home workers have died from COVID-19 infections since August, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data tracking infections and deaths among nursing home residents and staff. In just the first two weeks of October, 26 nursing home workers across the US have died from COVID-19 infections. This data is collected from nursing homes self-reporting to either the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the Nursing Home and Skilled Nursing (NHSN) COVID-19 module with the CDC. This data does not include deaths or infections from other types of long-term care facilities, such as rehabilitation centers and assisted living facilities. The CDC NHSN COVID-19 module also displays infection rates among nursing home staff. Since the beginning of August there have been over 111,000 reported COVID-19 cases among nursing home staff. While the severity of these cases and hospitalization rates were not reported, even mild cases have the potential to render workers disabled or fraught with new health conditions if they develop the common post-viral syndrome known as Long COVID. According to the same data set, there have been a total of 2,732 confirmed nursing home staff deaths from COVID-19 from May 2020 to the end of September 2022. A Certified Nursing Assistant (CNA) from Pennsylvania told reporters via private message on Reddit about his experience working in nursing homes throughout the pandemic. “It has been awful. Cases have spread so quickly already that it’s shocking.” “We are severely understaffed,” he said. “Our turnover rate is insane due to new employees underestimating the spread of COVID. There is absolutely no support from the administration, which makes it even worse. We are under an immense amount of pressure every single day.” In response to the high rates of COVID deaths among staff, the CNA stated, “I’m absolutely not surprised. For many of us, going to work feels like an extreme risk every day. We adhere to all of the rules; we are under very strict rules regarding COVID compared to other hospitals and it still has spread so quickly like a fire in our facility. Many of us are getting the virus for the second time.” When asked if he felt his facility was prepared for a coming fall and winter surge, he added, “I absolutely do not think we are prepared. We are beginning to get slammed with COVID cases and deaths and the anxiety and depression among the staff has become worse and worse. We are trying to prepare ourselves mentally and emotionally for what this season and new year have to come.” The tragic number of nursing home staff deaths reported is likely a gross undercount. In addition, comparisons between nursing home worker deaths to overall health care worker deaths is not possible, as overall health care worker deaths are not currently being reported or tracked. According to CDC data, there have been zero deaths among health care workers beginning abruptly at the end of February, an obvious falsehood. In its latest anti-scientific move, the CDC quietly announced that it will switch from daily to weekly reporting of COVID-19 infections and deaths beginning October 20. Coming just before what is widely expected to be another devastating surge of the pandemic across the US this fall and winter, the move marks a major deepening of the Biden administration’s COVID-19 cover-up, tailoring data to match Biden’s lie that “the pandemic is over.”
'Long Covid is going to push us to get outside of our comfort zone' - STATA doctor’s humbling journey treating long Covid: ‘The second we think we know what we are doing, we fall flat on our face’ – I first met Wes Ely in 2016, when I wrote about ICU delirium and Ely’s attempts, as a critical-care physician at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, to urge fellow health care workers to rethink the use of heavy sedation in ICUs. His research was an attempt to limit the crippling cognitive and physical impairments he saw develop in many critical-care patients long after they left the hospital, something he came to call post intensive care syndrome, or PICS.Well, a lot’s happened since 2016. I thought of Ely’s work often as ICU care became a mainstay of the Covid-19 pandemic and wondered about the long-term prognosis of people who were so sickened by the virus they’d been heavily sedated and placed on ventilators to survive. Then long Covid showed up, and became something Ely grappled with as well.Through a new book, op-eds, and a steady stream of TikToks, Ely has become a leading voice on the recovery that can take place after trauma or grueling illness and on the importance of preventing new Covid infections. As the pandemic marches on, he’s increasingly concerned about the resulting epidemic of chronic disease society may face. I spoke with Ely about his concerns, what he initially got wrong about long Covid, what he finds humbling about medicine, and, why, despite all the suffering he sees and treats, he still holds hope. The conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
New Omicron Subvariant Seen Driving Covid Cases in Europe - A new omicron subvariant is poised to become dominant in Europe and will probably drive another increase in Covid-19 cases, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said. The BQ.1 subvariant, and its sublineage BQ.1.1, will probably dominate in Europe by mid-November to the beginning of December and help send cases up in “coming weeks to months,” the agency said on Friday. The subvariants are also gaining ground in the US, where they are responsible for an estimated 16.6% of cases, theCenters for Disease Control and Prevention said. The ECDC is the latest in a series of public health agencies to flag the new subvariant, which has shown an ability to sidestep the response of the immune system in lab tests. There’s no evidence that the resulting infections are more severe than those that result from the omicron variants that have dominated to this point, the ECDC said. The subvariant is related to BA.5, the current dominant sublineage. BQ.1.1 has been found in 29 countries, the World Health Organization said this week.
As COVID surges in Germany, studies show more risks from infections for children - As a massive coronavirus wave develops in the autumn and hospitalization rates skyrocket, more and more studies are revealing the dangerous consequences of COVID infection, even for children.The number of coronavirus infections in Germany has increased exponentially in recent weeks, with more than 100,000 people becoming infected daily. On Thursday alone, 145,000 infections were reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Just a week ago, an average of “only” 62,000 people were being infected every day. According to official figures, 1.4 million people in Germany are currently infected: about one in 60 inhabitants.The actual figures are much higher. Only positive PCR tests are included in the RKI statistics. However, many people do not take a PCR test after a positive lateral flow test. The testing infrastructure and mandatory testing have been almost completely scaled back. The high positive test rate of 47.8 percent gives an indication of the high number of unreported cases.As the number of infections increases, the number of those who experience a severe illness also skyrockets. The adjusted hospitalization incidence rate is now almost 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, which corresponds to 15,000 hospitalizations per week, meaning it has doubled in less than two weeks. At latest count, the number of people being treated in intensive care is 1,706.The German Hospital Association (DKG) warns of hospitals becoming overloaded. Compared to the previous week, bed occupancy for those with COVID “increased by 50 percent,” the chairman of the board Gerald Gaß told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. Things will be “extremely difficult in the weeks ahead,” he said.The drastic situation is the result of the government’s policy of deliberately allowing the contagion to run wild. With the current Infection Protection Act, which came into force on October 1, the federal coalition government has eliminated almost all remaining protective measures. New measures—most notably lockdowns, such as the closure of schools—are now prevented by the law. Recent studies on the long-term consequences of a coronavirus infection, especially for children, have revealed the criminal results of this policy. A recently published study by the Erlangen University Hospital, which examines the long-term consequences of COVID infections in children and adolescents, concludes that minors experience enormous changes to their lungs due to infection. Through examinations with a special MRI, researchers determined that in study participants the air and blood flow of the lungs no longer functioned properly. “In the recovered group, the V/Q (ventilation/perfusion) ratio was 62 percent, and in the group with Long COVID, it was 60 percent—both a significantly lower value than the ratio of 81 percent in the healthy control subjects,” explained Dr. Ferdinand Knieling, a specialist in paediatrics and adolescent medicine at the Children’s Hospital at Erlangen University Hospital. This means that the air and blood flow of those infected was significantly lower than in uninfected children and adolescents. How long ago the infection had occurred did not matter, according to Dr. Knieling; lung function was lower in all cases.
Authorities call for continued COVID-19 measures in Europe amid renewed surge - - A fresh autumn wave of COVID-19 infections has begun in many European countries, and experts are calling for strengthened vaccination efforts and tighter health measures as cases are set to keep rising this winter. Greece confirmed 55,242 cases in the week of Oct 10-16, an increase of 8 percent compared to the previous week. Of the new weekly infections, 21 percent are reinfections, the National Public Health Organization reported Tuesday. The report also said that during the week of Oct 10-16, 1,351 COVID-19 patients were admitted to hospitals, up 23 percent compared to the previous week. In the Netherlands, the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 has continued to rise, reaching its highest level since April 15. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment said that new infections may rise sharply in the near future. Finnish National radio Yle reported earlier this week that the current rate of deaths caused by COVID-19 in Finland is five times the EU average. So far in October, the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare has reported 261 deaths. "Although we are not where we were one year ago, it is clear that the COVID-19 pandemic is still not over. We are unfortunately seeing indicators rising again in Europe," said a joint statement released by European health agencies on Oct 12. "Preparedness measures need to continue in the European region, we should not let our guard down," said a statement by World Health Organization (WHO) European Regional Director Hans Kluge, European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) Director Andrea Ammon and European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Stella Kyriakides. "The potential co-circulation of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza will put vulnerable people at increased risk of severe illness and death. Together with public health measures, vaccination remains one of our most effective tools against both viruses," they said, urging countries to "prioritize protecting the most vulnerable groups by co-administering influenza and COVID-19 vaccines whenever feasible." On Monday, the Italian health ministry recommended the use of new bivalent COVID-19 vaccines for the third booster shot for vulnerable people, which should be administered 120 days after the second booster. The third booster shot is recommended for elderly people aged over 80, vulnerable people over 60, and residents of care homes. In Belgium, health authorities have drawn up a winter plan to contain the latest wave. The plan is based on a new booster vaccination campaign, and the return of mask-wearing in certain places. Vaccination is particularly recommended for people over 50, healthcare providers and immunocompromised people. Vaccination against influenza is also recommended before the virus returns in winter. The Belgian plan also recommends that people with fragile health should wear FFP2 masks on public transport and in busy indoor places.
Independent Task Force on COVID-19 calls for urgent action to combat emerging diseases - - A group of internationally renowned experts in public health, virology, wildlife biology and ecology warned this week that emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are “an urgent and growing threat to public health.” They published their peer-reviewed findings and recommendations last week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).The members of the task force include Drs. Peter Daszak, Isabella Eckerle, Marion Koopmans and 11 other widely respected scientists from throughout the world. In the decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, these and other scientists repeatedly warned that such a pandemic would emerge unless earnest efforts were undertaken to study, monitor, and prevent the spillover of diseases from animals to humans.The failure to heed scientists’ warnings set the stage for the disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was determined, in the final analysis, by the social, political and economic imperatives of world capitalism. Furthermore, despite the confirmations of these scientists’ most dire prognostications, governments around the world continue to ignore their pleas to prepare for further pandemics.In the PNAS report, the scientists note that RNA viruses, including coronaviruses, have had a long history of spilling over into human populations and will continue to do so at an increasing pace, for which the world remains woefully unprepared. Globalization, climate change, and environmental degradation have only raised these threats.In many ways, the SARS-CoV-1 global outbreak in 2002-04 was a dress rehearsal for the COVID-19 pandemic. The report notes that scientific evidence shows the two events shared many similar pathways, involving spillover from bats into intermediate hosts which then emerged in human populations.Commenting on the findings of their report, task force member Dr. John Amuasi of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana, wrote, “Despite advancements in biomedical science and technology over the past century, we have largely turned a blind eye to the inextricable interconnections among humans, other animals, and the shared environment. COVID-19 has taught us that failing to recognize the relevance, complexity and dynamism of the socioecological systems of planet earth not only puts the world at risk of pandemics but limits our ability to effectively counter them.”Not only does the report add further crucial evidence refuting the Wuhan Lab leak conspiracy theory that has been promoted by numerous politicians and the corporate media, but its primary strength and importance lie in a sober assessment of the dangers posed by the growing threat of EIDs and the necessity for addressing these under the construct of a unified “One Health” approach.The One Health Initiative Task Force (OHITF) defines this approach as “the collaborative efforts of multiple disciplines working locally, nationally, and globally, to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment.” In December 2007, One Health was officially adopted by representatives of 111 countries and 29 international organizations, and in July 2010 the United Nations and World Bank made recommendations of adopting the One Health approach towards pandemic preparedness. Nevertheless, the guiding principles of this scientific approach have yet to be implemented throughout the world.
Early, aggressive flu season impacting emergency rooms across metro Atlanta – Flu season has started here in Georgia and the state is already in the high range for the number of cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This early and aggressive flu season has caught many off guard. Metro hospitals are now handling a surge of sick patients, especially children. Channel 2′s Tom Regan has learned that Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta at Scottish Rite and other hospitals in the system are dealing with an overflow of children the flu and other respiratory illnesses. Normally with kids back in school, CHOA gets a bit of a break this time of year. But with the flu and other viral infection running amok it’s just the opposite. “It’s been this constant surge of patients coming to the emergency department,” CHOA infectious disease specialist Dr. Matthew Linam said. Linam said they are treating hundreds of young patients each week at their hospitals and urgent care center for the flu and other viral illnesses. He said with masking and social distancing lifted, the flu is easily transmitted. Georgia is now second in the nation for flu activity according to the CDC. “We have had two mild flu seasons so that could make us ripe for a sever season this year,” said Dr. Carla Black, with the CDC. Black said over the last 10 years, the flu has been especially hard on ethnic minorities due to less vaccine coverage, access to medical care and underlying medical problems, among other reasons. “We found hospitalizations due to the flu were 80% higher in Black adults, compared to white adults,” Black said. At Dunwoody Pharmacy, they’re giving 60-80 vaccine shots a week. . That may have spared a long wait for sick children and their parents at the hospital. “I would say the vast majority of kids showing up with the flu are not vaccinated yet,” Linam said. Linam told Regan that many of the children are offered a flu shot after arriving at the hospital.
Children’s hospitals ‘gravely worried’ about upcoming flu season amid ER crisis --As flu season approaches in Canada, officials at children’s hospitals across the country say they are “gravely worried” about how an influx of children with influenza, COVID-19 or other viruses could exacerbate challenges within an already overburdened health system.
Black, Hispanic adults more likely to be hospitalized with flu than white adults - Racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to be hospitalized with the flu in the United States, new federal data shows.A new report published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Tuesday looked at data from the 2009-10 through the 2021-22 flu seasons – excluding the 2020-21 season – and flu vaccination coverage from the 2010-11 season through the 2021-22 season.They found that compared to white adults, influenza-related hospitalizations were 80% higher among Black adults.Although there was some variation by season, during most season, hospitalization rates for Black adults were between 1.5 and 2.4 times the rates among white adults.Additionally, American Indian and Alaska Natives (Ai/AN) flu-related hospitalizations were 30% higher and hospitalizations among Hispanics were 20% higher.For AI/AN adults, rates were highest during the 2011-12 season and the 2021-22 seasons with rates 2.7 times those of white adults.Meanwhile for Hispanics, the highest rates were seen during the 2009-10 and 2021-22 seasons and were 2.1 times those of their white counterparts.The report also found that Asian/Pacific Islander adults had the lowest rates of hospitalization of all the racial and ethnic groups, ranging from 60% to 90% of hospitalization rates of white adults.Although experts say flu vaccination is the best protection against the flu, rates are lower among racial and ethnic minorities.
Ebola outbreak in Uganda puts California doctors on alert California officials are urging doctors to be on alert for any signs of Ebola symptoms among people who have recently traveled to Uganda, the East African nation currently undergoing a significant outbreak.So far, the Ebola outbreak in Uganda has been limited to rural areas of that East African country. Ebola cases have not been reported in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, nor Entebbe, home to the nation’s international airport, according to a recentbulletin by the California Department of Public Health.“However, spread of the outbreak within the region is possible due to several factors,” the report said. They include the likelihood that Ebola was spreading weeks before the index case was identified and that patients initially sought care at healthcare facilities with sub-optimal infection-control practices.In addition, some of the early victims were buried in large ceremonies, and the area where the outbreak began was along a main highway two hours from the Ugandan capital and leading to the Democratic Republic of Congo.There are 54 confirmed and 20 probable Ebola cases in the recent outbreak, as well as 39 deaths, according to the World Health Organization. An outbreak was declared Sept. 20. The Ebola strain behind this outbreak is known as the Sudan species; past outbreaks of the Sudan species have resulted in a mortality rate of 50%.There are no vaccines or drugs approved to prevent or treat the Ebola Sudan species. The current Ebola vaccine is designed for use against the Ebola Zaire species and isn’t expected to protect against the Ebola Sudan species, according to California health officials.
Ebola in Uganda: Three-week lockdown announced for two districts - BBC News - A three-week lockdown has been declared in two districts of Uganda as the country battles an Ebola outbreak. Bars, nightclubs, places of worship and entertainment venues will be closed in Mubende and neighbouring Kassanda, and a curfew will come into force. The move is a U-turn for Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, who previously said there was no need for such measures. This latest outbreak has killed 19 people among 58 recorded cases. However, the real number of deaths and cases may be higher. The outbreak began in early September in Mubende, about 80km (50 miles) from the capital Kampala, and has remained the epicentre. President Museveni had previously ruled out lockdowns, saying Ebola was not an airborne virus so did not require the same measures as Covid-19. But on Saturday he halted all movement in and out of Mubende and Kassanda districts for 21 days. Cargo trucks will still be allowed to enter and leave the areas, he said, but all other transport will be stopped. "These are temporary measures to control the spread of Ebola," he said in a televised address. "We should all cooperate with authorities so we bring this outbreak to an end in the shortest possible time."
Florida flesh-eating illness cases spike after Hurricane Ian - BBC News -- The Florida county that was devastated by Hurricane Ian last month has seen a surge in cases of flesh-eating bacteria illnesses and deaths. Officials say Lee County, where the category four storm made landfall on 28 September, has recorded 29 illnesses and four deaths owing to the bacteria. All but two cases were diagnosed after the hurricane. Vibrio vulnificus infections can be caused after bacteria enters the body through open cuts. The bacteria live in warm brackish water, like standing flood-waters. "The Florida Department of Health in Lee County is observing an abnormal increase in cases of Vibrio vulnificus infections as a result of exposure to the flood-waters and standing waters following Hurricane Ian," a spokesperson at the county health department said on Monday. The statement called on residents to "always be aware of the potential risks associated when exposing open wounds, cuts, or scratches on the skin to warm, brackish, or salt water". "Sewage spills, like those caused from Hurricane Ian, may increase bacteria levels," the statement continued. "As the post-storm situation evolves, individuals should take precautions against infection and illness caused by Vibrio vulnificus." Collier County, just south of Lee County, has also recorded three confirmed cases that officials say are storm-related. Across Florida, there have been a record 11 confirmed deaths attributed to the bacterium this year, and a total of 65 cases, according to state health data. Officials estimate that nearly half are related to Hurricane Ian. In 2021, 10 deaths were recorded and 34 cases in Florida. Seven deaths were attributed to the bacteria in 2020. Vibrio vulnificus is known as "flesh-eating" because it can develop into necrotising fasciitis, a condition that causes tissue to break down. It is not the only bacteria that can cause necrotising fasciitis. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, around one in five Vibrio vulnificus patients dies, sometimes within only a day or two of becoming ill. It can cause sepsis if it enters the bloodstream, and can sometimes lead to amputations to prevent its spread to other parts of a patient's body.
PFAS found in blood samples of more than 1,000 people in Cape Fear River Basin | NC Policy Watch - For more than a year, Laura Petersen has waited for the message to arrive. Petersen and her family have lived in Pittsboro for 12 years. Every day for those 12 years they drank water from their tap, unaware it contained high levels of toxic PFAS, or per- and polyfluorinated compounds.Peterson, her husband and their daughter are among 206 Pittsboro residents who consented to have their blood tested for PFAS. Another 800 residents in the Lower Cape Fear River Basin also provided researchers with blood samples.All the study participants should receive their results within the next week.Depending on levels of exposure, PFAS have been linked to multiple health problems, including thyroid and liver disorders, reproductive and fetal development problems, high cholesterol, a suppressed immune system, and kidney and testicular cancers.In addition to drinking water, PFAS are found in microwave popcorn bags, pizza boxes, cosmetics, fast food containers, firefighting foam, stain- and grease-resistant fabrics, and hundreds of other consumer products. There are upward of 12,000 types of PFAS; they’re known as “forever chemicals” because they persist in the environment for hundreds, if not thousands of years. In 2020-2021, the GenX Exposure Study team collected blood samples from 1,020 people in three communities throughout the Cape Fear River Basin: Scientists tested the blood for 44 types of PFAS. Four of them were found in nearly every person sampled:
- PFOS 99.6%
- PFOA 99%
- PFHxS 99%
- PFNA 96%
For each compound, all three communities in North Carolina had PFAS levels well above the U.S. median. And of the three, Pittsboro residents had the highest median levels of each compound in their blood. For example, the Pittsboro median for PFOS was 8 parts per billion, compared with 7 and 6 for Fayetteville and New Hanover/Brunswick counties, respectively. (A median is a “middle number,” meaning half the numbers are above and half are below.) “That indicates widespread contamination in the Cape Fear River Basin,” Nadine Kotlarz, a post-doctoral researcher at NC State University said.
The U.S. Never Banned Asbestos. These Workers Are Paying the Price. — ProPublica - Henry Saenz remembers when he first learned what even the tiniest bit of asbestos could do to his body. He was working at a chemical plant where employees used the mineral to make chlorine, and his coworkers warned him about what could happen each time he took a breath: Tiny fibers, invisible to the eye, could enter his nose and mouth and settle into his lungs, his abdomen, the lining of his heart. They could linger there for decades. Then, one day, he might develop asbestosis, a chronic disease that makes the lungs harden, or mesothelioma, a vicious cancer that ends the lives of most who have it within a few years.By then, in the early 1990s, the dangers of asbestos were already irrefutable. The United States had prohibited its use in pipe insulation and branded it so risky that remediators had to wear hazmat suits to remove it. But unlike dozens of other countries that banned the potent carcinogen outright, the United States never did. To this day, the U.S. allows hundreds of tons of asbestos to flow in each year from Brazil, primarily for the benefit of two major chemical companies, OxyChem and Olin Corp. The companies say asbestos is integral to chlorine production at several aging plants and have made a compelling argument to keep it legal: Unlike in the horrific tales of the past, their current protocols for handling asbestos are so stringent that workers face little threat of exposure.But at OxyChem’s plant in Niagara Falls, New York, where Saenz worked for nearly three decades, the reality was far different, more than a dozen former workers told ProPublica. There, they said, asbestos dust hung in the air, collected on the beams and light fixtures and built up until it was inches thick. Workers tramped in and out of it all day, often without protective suits or masks, and carried it around on their coveralls and boots. They implored the plant’s managers to address the conditions, they said, but the dangers remained until the plant closed in late 2021 for unrelated reasons. It was hard for Saenz to reconcile the science that he understood — and that he believed OxyChem and government leaders understood — with what he saw at the plant every day. He did his best not to inhale the asbestos, but after a short time, he came to believe there was no way the killer substance was not already inside him, waiting, perhaps 30 or 40 or even 50 years, to strike.
Secret files suggest chemical giant feared weedkiller’s link to Parkinson’s disease - For decades, Swiss chemical giant Syngenta has manufactured and marketed a widely used weed-killing chemical called paraquat, and for much of that time the company has been dealing with external concerns that long-term exposure to the chemical may be a cause of the incurable brain ailment known as Parkinson’s disease.Syngenta has repeatedly told customers and regulators that scientific research does not prove a connection between its weedkiller and the disease, insisting that the chemical does not readily cross the blood-brain barrier, and does not affect brain cells in ways that cause Parkinson’s.But a cache of internal corporate documents dating back to the 1950s reviewed by the Guardian suggests that the public narrative put forward by Syngenta and the corporate entities that preceded it has at times contradicted the company’s own research and knowledge.And though the documents reviewed do not show that Syngenta’s scientists and executives accepted and believed that paraquat can cause Parkinson’s, they do show a corporate focus on strategies to protect product sales, refute external scientific research and influence regulators.In one defensive tactic, the documents indicate that the company worked behind the scenes to try to keep a highly regarded scientist from sitting on an advisory panel for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The agency is the chief US regulator for paraquat and other pesticides. Company officials wanted to make sure the efforts could not be traced back to Syngenta, the documents show.And the documents show that insiders feared they could face legal liability for long-term, chronic effects of paraquat as long ago as 1975. One company scientist called the situation “a quite terrible problem” for which “some plan could be made … ” That prediction of legal consequences has come to pass. Thousands of people who allege they developed Parkinson’s because of long-term chronic effects of paraquat exposure are now suing Syngenta. Along with Syngenta, they are also suing Chevron USA, the successor to a company that distributed paraquat in the US until 1986. Both companies deny any liability and maintain that scientific evidence does not support a causal link between paraquat and Parkinson’s disease.
EPA: Black residents in 'Cancer Alley' still face higher risks - In a first-of-its-kind letter, the agency said Black residents of an industrial area in Louisiana continue to experience "disproportionate elevated risks" due to cancer-causing air pollution spewing from nearby facilities. EPA this week fired off a damning letter to Louisiana environmental and health departments revealing preliminary evidence that the state agencies discriminated against Black residents for decades.“Based on the data EPA has reviewed thus far, Black residents of the Industrial Corridor Parishes continue to bear disproportionate elevated risks of developing cancer from exposure to current levels of toxic air pollution,” wrote Lilian Dorka, EPA's head of external civil rights.The first-of-its-kind letter of concern regards the residents of a densely industrial area known as “Cancer Alley” made up of unincorporated towns that were created when slavery ended and groups of free Black people were able to buy strips of land at the edges of plantations — where polluting facilities were then built over the course of the 20th century.The letter is part of an ongoing EPA external civil rights investigation stemming from complaints filed in January by Earthjustice on behalf St. John the Baptist Parish residents and others.
EPA: Racial disparity in Louisiana's 'Cancer Alley' (AP) — The Environmental Protection Agency said it has evidence that Black residents in an industrial section of Louisiana face an increased risk of cancer from a nearby chemical plant and that state officials have allowed air pollution to remain high and downplayed its threat. The agency's 56-page letter to Louisiana officials describes early findings of racial discrimination by two Louisiana departments involving the entire corridor between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, a plant that EPA said emits large amounts of a cancer-causing chemical and a proposed plastics complex. It said EPA has “significant evidence suggesting that the Departments’ actions or inactions" have hurt and are hurting Black residents of St. John the Baptist Parish, St. James Parish, and the 85-mile (137-kilometer) industrial corridor officially called the Mississippi River Chemical Corridor. Robert Taylor, director of Concerned Citizens of St. John who asked the EPA to investigate the state, said his community has been failed “time and time again by every level of government.” “This is a true and dire health emergency, and we are looking for urgent action by EPA to fix the problem in St. John where huge levels of chloroprene have just been found on top of the years of already unacceptable pollution we have been breathing," Taylor said. “This must end." The letter dated Wednesday and posted on EPA’s website said it appears that for decades, the state Department of Environmental Quality has let a Denka polymer plant expose people who live nearby and children at an elementary school to enough chloroprene to increase their cancer risk. Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 says anyone who received federal funds may not discriminate based on race or national origin. The Biden administration has stepped up its enforcement of environmental discrimination, and Title VI is part of its promise to elevate environmental justice as a goal. In September, federal officials announced the creation of the Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights in the EPA. At the request of local environmental and activist groups, the EPA opened Title VI investigations into whether Louisiana regulators have discriminated against Black residents by failing to control air pollution in the industrial section of the state that some call “cancer alley.” EPA said the state needs to consider the cumulative impact of pollution from three Denka units with overdue permit renewals and from any of Formosa’s 14 air permits for its proposed chemical facility that it keeps or reconsiders. A state judge in Baton Rouge overturned Formosa’s permits, but her ruling was stayed during an appeal, the EPA noted. The state environmental department should set air permit limits in the entire corridor to reduce chemicals that can bring on cancer-causing mutations, EPA said. It said Louisiana's health department should consider all ways to protect children at Fifth Ward Elementary School from chloroprene, including finding places to move them inside and out of St. John the Baptist Parish.
Alligators exposed to ‘forever chemicals’ show autoimmune impacts: study - Alligators exposed to “forever chemicals” in North Carolina’s Cape Fear River may be experiencing adverse clinical and autoimmune effects, a new study has found. In addition to showing genetic indicators for immune system impacts, the animals had many unhealed or infected lesions, according to the study, published on Thursday in Frontiers in Toxicology. “Alligators rarely suffer from infections,” Scott Belcher, an associate professor of biology at North Carolina State University, said in a statement. “They do get wounds, but they normally heal quickly,” he continued.From 2018 to 2019, Belcher and his colleagues took blood samples and conducted health evaluations on 49 alligators living along the Cape Fear River. They found that the animals had elevated levels of 14 different types of so-called forever chemicals, also known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).There are thousands of types of PFAS — artificial compounds that can persist for decades in the environment and are linked to many illnesses, such as thyroid disease, testicular cancer and kidney cancer. Notorious for their presence in jet fuel, firefighting foam and industrial discharge, PFAS are also key ingredients in a variety of household items, such as non-stick pans, cosmetics and waterproof apparel. The Cape Fear River basin has long been contaminated by PFAS, as multiple industries have discharged the substances into the waterway for years. Upstream contamination in the Cape Fear largely has come from fluorochemical production, manufacturing, wastewater treatment discharges and the use of firefighting foams, the authors noted. As Belcher and his team studied the alligators that inhabit the river, they said they detected an average of 10 different types of PFAS in the animals’ blood samples. They compared these findings to a reference population of 26 alligators from Lake Waccamaw, in the adjoining Lumber River basin, where they observed an average of five different types of PFAS, according to the study. As they moved downstream from Wilmington — where much of the industrial sources are situated – the researchers said they saw that overall PFAS concentrations decreased.But their most unusual observation, according to the authors, was the number of unhealed lesions on the alligators that they observed. “Seeing infected lesions that weren’t healing properly was concerning and led us to look more closely at the connections between PFAS exposure and changes in the immune systems of the alligators,” Belcher said.The scientists then conducted a genetic analysis, which revealed elevated levels of genes that are responsive to an immune protein called interferon-alpha. These levels were 400 times higher than those of the Lake Waccamaw alligators, according to the study. The set of interferon-alpha responsive genes that the researchers identified in the alligators are typically involved in viral infections, Belcher explained. In humans, high expression of these genes is an important indicator of autoimmune diseases, such as lupus, he continued. Already, some PFAS exposures in humans have been connected to chronic autoimmune disorders like ulcerative colitis and thyroid disease, Belcher noted. “Seeing these associations between PFAS exposure and disrupted immune function in the Cape Fear River alligators supports connections between adverse human and animal health effects and PFAS exposure,” he added.
Animal populations experience average decline of almost 70% since 1970, report reveals Earth’s wildlife populations have plunged by an average of 69% in just under 50 years, according to a leading scientific assessment, as humans continue to clear forests, consume beyond the limits of the planet and pollute on an industrial scale. From the open ocean to tropical rainforests, the abundance of birds, fish, amphibians and reptiles is in freefall, declining on average by more than two-thirds between 1970 and 2018, according to the WWF and Zoological Society of London’s (ZSL) biennial Living Planet Report. Two years ago, the figure stood at 68%, four years ago, it was at 60%.Many scientists believe we are living through the sixth mass extinction – the largest loss of life on Earth since the time of the dinosaurs – and that it is being driven by humans. The report’s 89 authors are urging world leaders to reach an ambitious agreement at the Cop15 biodiversity summit in Canada this December and to slash carbon emissions to limit global heating to below 1.5C this decade to halt the rampant destruction of nature.The Living Planet Index combines global analysis of 32,000 populations of 5,230 animal species to measure changes in the abundance of wildlife across continents and taxa, producing a graph akin to a stock index of life on Earth. Latin America and the Caribbean region – including the Amazon – has seen the steepest decline in average wildlife population size, with a 94% drop in 48 years. Tanya Steele, chief executive at WWF-UK, said: “This report tells us that the worst declines are in the Latin America region, home to the world’s largest rainforest, the Amazon. Deforestation rates there are accelerating, stripping this unique ecosystem not just of trees but of the wildlife that depends on them and of the Amazon’s ability to act as one of our greatest allies in the fight against climate change.”Africa had the second largest fall at 66%, followed by Asia and the Pacific with 55% and North America at 20%. Europe and Central Asia experienced an 18% fall. The total loss is akin to the human population of Europe, the Americas, Africa, Oceania and China disappearing, according to the report.“Despite the science, the catastrophic projections, the impassioned speeches and promises, the burning forests, submerged countries, record temperatures and displaced millions, world leaders continue to sit back and watch our world burn in front of our eyes,” said Steele. “The climate and nature crises, their fates entwined, are not some faraway threat our grandchildren will solve with still-to-be-discovered technology.” The report points out that not all countries have the same starting points with nature decline and that the UK has only 50% of its biodiversity richness compared with historical levels, according to the biodiversity intactness index, making it one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world.Land use change is still the most important driver of biodiversity loss across the planet, according to the report. Mike Barrett, executive director of science and conservation at WWF-UK, said: “At a global level, primarily the declines we are seeing are driven by the loss and fragmentation of habitat driven by the global agricultural system and its expansion into intact habitat converting it to produce food.”
The 2022 Living Planet Index Is Out. Here’s How to Understand It. - It’s clear that wildlife is suffering mightily on our planet, but scientists don’t know exactly how much. A comprehensive figure is exceedingly hard to determine. Counting wild animals — on land and at sea, from gnats to whales — is no small feat. Most countries lack national monitoring systems. One of the most ambitious efforts to fill this void is published every two years. Known as the Living Planet Index, it’s a collaboration between two major conservation organizations, the World Wide Fund for Nature, widely known as the WWF, and the Zoological Society of London. But the report has repeatedly resulted in inaccurate headlines when journalists misinterpreted or overstated its results. The assessment’s latest number, issued Wednesday by 89 authors from around the world, is its most alarming yet: From 1970 to 2018, monitored populations of vertebrates declined an average of 69 percent. That’s more than two-thirds in only 48 years. It’s a staggering figure with serious implications, especially as nations prepare to meet in Montreal this December in an effort to agree on a new global plan to protect biodiversity. But does it mean what you think? Remember that this number is only about vertebrates: mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish. Absent are creatures without spines, even though they make up the vast majority of animal species (scientists have even less data on them). So, have wild vertebrates plummeted by 69 percent since 1970? No. The study tracks selected populations of 5,320 species, vacuuming up all the relevant published research that exists, adding more each year as new data permits. It includes, for example, a population of whale sharks in the Gulf of Mexico counted from small planes flying low over the water, and birds tallied by the number of nests on cliffs. Depending on the species, tools like camera traps and evidence like trail droppings help scientists estimate the population in a certain place. This year’s update includes almost 32,000 such populations. There’s a temptation to think that an average 69 percent decline in these populations means that’s the share of monitored wildlife that was wiped out. But that’s not true. An addendum to the report provides an example of why. Imagine, the authors wrote, we start with three populations: birds, bears and sharks. The birds decline to 5 from 25, a drop of 80 percent. The bears fall to 45 animals from 50, or 10 percent. And the sharks decrease to 8 from 20, or 60 percent. That gives us an average decline of 50 percent. But the total number of animals fell to 92 from 150, a drop of about 39 percent. The index is designed that way because it seeks to understand how populations are changing over time. It doesn’t measure how many individuals are present.
In a warming world, who wins: Goats or sheep? - As the namesake ice of Glacier National Park in Montana recedes, it is exposing once unavailable salt deposits coveted by animals far and wide. Both mountain goats and bighorn sheep are flocking to lick up sodium and other crucial nutrients they need to survive.But where there’s a feast, there’s a fight.A study published Monday in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution reveals how new winners and losers are emerging in the animal kingdom as rising temperatures alter the abundance and distribution of food, water and shade.Those crucial resources include salt licks. Many animals — including bats, primates and rodents — all go to great lengths for minerals they do not get from the rest of their diet.In Glacier National Park, months of observation reveal an undisputed victor in the Salt Wars: The goat. “We were surprised that mountain goats won,” said Joel Berger, a professor at Colorado State University and a senior scientist for the Wildlife Conservation Society who co-wrote the paper, in a phone interview.“Naively, I was just thinking, we’ve got two similar-sized species and they both live in these mountains,” he added. “And if everything was equal, then half the time we’d expect one to win and half the time the other.”But that’s not what happened.In the vast majority of these high-altitude conflicts in Glacier, goats bullied sheep, the research team found. Most of the time, goats didn’t need to do much: Their presence alone was enough to shoo away the more passive herbivores.The difference came down to attitude: Goats are simply more ornery. When warranted, the snowy-colored animals were willing to drop their heads and rush with their saber-like horns to get their way. “They are characteristically more aggressive,” said Forest P. Hayes, an ecologist and co-author who is pursuing a Ph.D. at Colorado State. These kinds of fights are likely to intensify. As deserts dry and forests dwindle, water and shade will become scarcer in many corners of the world. Yet conflict between species over resources altered by climate change and other human disturbances “is a really poorly investigated arena,” Hayes said. “As we’re seeing potential shifts in resource availability and increases in scarcity, it’s increasingly likely that this is going to happen more often,” he added. “So understanding these conflicts and ramifications for interacting species is really important.”
Most of the country is experiencing troubling drought conditions - The Washington Post - The most recent update to the U.S. Drought Monitor revealed a startling figure: Nearly 82 percent of the country is facing at least abnormally dry conditions — the highest percentage since the drought monitor launched in 2000. Severe to exceptional drought conditions remain common in the West, which has been battling its driest period in the past 1,200 years. But the drought is now far more widespread, with unusual dryness continuing in parts of the Northeast and expanding extreme drought conditions in the Midwest.The West — defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor as the states of Montana, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Nevada and California — is again seeing widespread drought conditions, though there have been slight improvements since a year ago, when all but 2.57 percent of the region was under unusual dry conditions. Today, that figure sits at 5.23 percent.California is ground zero of the drought in the West. The entire state is experiencing at least moderate drought conditions. Almost the entire state might be facing severe drought conditions if not for the much-needed rain brought to parts of far-Southern California by Hurricane Kay in the first half of September. A little over 40 percent of the state is seeing extreme drought conditions — stretching from the Los Angeles area to the Central Valley all the way up into the Shasta Cascades and southern Oregon. The last three water years — which run from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30 — have been the driest in California’s history. Several other Western states — Arizona, Nevada, Washington, Idaho, and Utah — are entirely in drought. In Utah, more than 51 percent of the state is seeing extreme drought conditions, dropping water levels in the Great Salt Lake to record lows for the second year in a row, according to local reporting.Less than 10 percent of the High Plains — defined as Colorado, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas — is drought-free, with the worst of the drought impacting the latter two states. In Nebraska, no part of the state is drought-free and over 98 percent of the state is seeing at least moderate drought conditions. Over the past three months, the percentage of the state under severe drought has nearly doubled, while areas of exceptional drought — the worst level on the drought monitor’s scale — have expanded to 11.49 percent.Firefighters and farmers in Nebraska have been battling wildfires, including the Bovee Fire, which has burned more than 18,900 acres — torching a campground and killing at least one person, according to reporting from NPR. In Kansas, 27 percent of the state is under exceptional drought, up from just 1 percent three months earlier. The worst of the drought is concentrated in the state’s south, including in Wichita. In the past 90 days, nearly all of Kansas has seen significantly below-normal rainfall.Current forecasts suggest little-to-no rain (or snow) is expected in the High Plains over the next week or so.The South — which the U.S. Drought Monitor defines as Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee — has seen drought conditions significantly worsen over the past year. One year ago, less than half of the region was under a drought. Now, just under 6 percent of the region is drought-free.By far the worst of the drought is in Oklahoma, where nearly 100 percent of the state is under a severe drought. Just over 85 percent of the state is seeing severe drought, while nearly 30 percent is experiencing exceptional drought. On Tuesday, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) issued an executive order intended to help farmers sustain their businesses. “As our farmers and ranchers continue navigating unprecedented challenges brought on by this year’s extreme drought, it is our responsibility as leaders to offer assistance and support wherever we can,” Stitt said in a press release. “Today’s action builds on my administration’s drought relief efforts and will allow for more commercial hay loads to come into Oklahoma to meet the demand of Oklahoma producers.”Most of Texas is still facing drought conditions, though they have eased in severity over the past three months, aided by flooding rainfall in August. Elsewhere in the South, all of Arkansas is seeing drought conditions, closing boat ramps at the Lee Creek Reservoir, which has dipped to 78 percent capacity, according to local reporting. In Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, drought conditions are widespread but not severe. While most people wouldn’t associate Hawaii with drought, nearly 90 percent of the state is abnormally dry, and the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook expects drought conditions to persist and worsen this month. In the rest of the United States, there are pockets of drought, but nothing as regionally widespread. In the Southeast, nearly all of Alabama, Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle are seeing abnormal dryness, with pockets of moderate to severe drought.
Bodies of water all over North America are drying up due to drought, climate change: Experts - Bodies of water all over North America are drying up as a result of drought and a decrease in precipitation, experts told ABC News.Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that the 22-year megadrought affecting the West would not only intensify but also move eastward.That prediction appears to be coming into fruition, with about 82% of the continental U.S. currently showing conditions between abnormally dry and exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.And while the U.S. and North America continue to witness water levels dropping in crucial rivers, lakes and reservoirs, a mixture of climate change and poor water management policies are causing similar events all over the world, experts told ABC News."Rivers all over the world are running really low," especially the Tigress and Euphrates Rivers in Iraq, as well as significant bodies of water in countries like Italy, Romania, France and China, Jonathan Deason, professor of the Environmental and Energy Management Program at George Washington University.The experts said that a two-pronged approach that includes climate change mitigation and better water management policies will be crucial as bodies of water continue to dry up. But so much damage has already been done, that even drastic improvements or reductions in emissions will not immediately impact reducing the stress on water levels, they said. Decreasing water levels along the Mississippi River, one of the most important trade routes in the country, have been causing ripple effects worldwide.Earlier this month, barges with shipping containers began idling along the sandbars of the river that previously contained ample water. Waters along the Mississippi have receded so much that a ferry that likely sunk in the late 1800s or early 1900s was discovered near Baton Rouge, earlier this month, and possible human remains were located by a resident in Coahoma County, Missouri, on Saturday. Much of the region surrounding the Mississippi River is experiencing conditions between abnormally dry and severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Mississippi River at Memphis, Tennessee, hit its lowest level in recorded history on Monday, with several other gauges at risk to break records as well.Supply chain delays for goods like grains, cement and fuel, which travel through New Orleans to the Gulf of Mexico, could be a consequence of a dried-up Mississippi, experts say."What happens is, commercial vessels have trouble, have obstacles popping up," Deason said. "Waters used to be so deep, it didn't make a difference for navigation."Ripple effects will include inflation and the prices of food and goods increasing, Deason added.The water levels will likely get worse, and recede even more, before they begin to rise again, Jonathan Remo, an associate professor at Southern Illinois University's School of Earth Systems and Sustainability, told ABC News last week.The Great Salt Lake, the largest saltwater lake in the world and largest terminal lake in the Western Hemisphere -- is continuing to lose its volume at alarming rates.By 2017, the lake had lost half of its water since the first settler arrived in 1847, according to a study published in Nature Geoscience. It is now one-third of its original capacity and has reached unsustainable levels, researchers told PBS.The loss of water in the lake, which is now at its lowest levels ever, is already causing a dangerous ecological ripple effect throughout Utah, and it will likely get worse, scientists told ABC News in July. More than 800 square miles of river have been exposed as a result of the dry-up."I don't know how much time we have," Joel Ferry, the director of Utah's Department of Natural Resources, told ABC News.
Portion Of Mississippi River Closes Again As Drought Crisis Worsens - Supply chains across the Midwest face significant constraints as a portion of the Mississippi River is closed again.Bloomberg reported a stretch of the Mississippi River, about 125 miles northeast of Memphis, near Hickman, Kentucky, closed Monday as water levels continue to plunge. Dredging operations began in the afternoon to clear debris from the waterway. The US Coast Guard said three vessels and 51 barges were waiting in the line at Hickman. According to the National Weather Service, waters in Memphis reached negative 10.79 feet and continue to decline, reaching record-low levels. The Mississippi River is the lowest it has been since records started in 1954. Current stage sits at -10.79 feet. #tnwx #mswx #mowx #arwx #midsouthwx pic.twitter.com/lgZW5enYq0— NWS Memphis (@NWSMemphis) October 18, 2022 The ultra-low river levels are severely impacting the agriculture industry across the Midwest. We pointed out barges are reducing weight which has caused a shortage of vessels to haul farm goods from this season's harvest to Gulf Coast terminals for export. We also said the decline in barge traffic and reduction in weight on vessels has led to a shortage. This has triggered shipping costs for barges to hyperinflate. Farmers who cannot find a shipper on the waterway have piled up beans and other farm goods on their property. There's only a certain amount of time before these freshly harvested crops go bad. Some farmers have been fortunate to find truckers, but there's only a finite supply due to everyone searching for land transportation, including rail. Earlier this month, the Coast Guard closed the area around Stack Island, Mississippi, due to dredging operations after barges were grounded as water levels dropped. Jeff Graschel, a hydrologist at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, said there are some signs of rainfall with cold fronts ahead, "but nothing that will get us out of the low-water situation." There are no signs that the low water disruption will soon abate on the nation's most crucial waterway.... and we must remind readers while Bloomberg and every other corporate media outlet blame so-called man-made climate change ... perhaps three years of La Nina is the culprit.
Mississippi River water levels are critically low, bringing some shipping to a halt - The Mississippi River is flowing at its lowest level in at least a decade, and until rain relieves a worsening drought in the region, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to maintain water levels high enough to carry critical exports from the nation’s bread basket. Areas of persistent and developing drought stretch across much of the Mississippi basin, which itself covers 41 percent of the contiguous United States. Though record-setting storms caused catastrophic flooding in parts of the watershed this summer, the past few months have been among the driest on record in parts of the Heartland, at a time of year when river levels are normally hitting their low points. And long-term forecasts suggest that unusually dry weather is likely to continue. At some spots, gauges reported the Mississippi’s river stages — a measure of water height normally used to evaluate flood conditions — with negative values, an indication of how far below normal levels the waters have receded. There’s also a risk for drinking water. The relative trickle that is reaching the river’s mouth in Louisiana’s outlying Plaquemines Parish is allowing salt water to intrude up the Mississippi from the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to taint drinking water drawn from the river and requiring emergency action by the Army Corps of Engineers. Repeatedly over the past week, water levels have become too low for barges to float, requiring the corps to halt maritime traffic on the river and dredge channels deep enough even for barges carrying lighter-than-normal loads. Days after a queue of stalled river traffic grew to more than 1,700 barges during emergency dredging near Vicksburg, Miss., a separate 24-hour dredging closure began Tuesday near Memphis. More dredging, which routinely costs billions of dollars a year, could be needed if barges continue to run aground. The transportation industry says the intervention is needed to maintain a flow of exports that is central to the country’s agriculture industry. About 60 percent of U.S. corn and soybean exports move down the Mississippi, the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and the Arkansas, Illinois, Ohio and Tennessee rivers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “Commerce is moving, albeit very slowly,” said Deb Calhoun, a senior vice president for the Waterways Council, a transportation industry group. “Ultimately, we need rain, and lots of it.” Drought is pronounced across much of the country west of the Mississippi, including some two-thirds of the northern Plains states that drain to the Missouri River and then the Mississippi, U.S. Drought Monitor data show. Precipitation totals rank among the 15th driest that Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and South Dakota have seen for June through September. It has been Nebraska’s third-driest recorded stretch of summer into fall, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. Such a drastic constriction in water flows across such a large area has translated to an unusually lasting impact on Mississippi River levels. The last time dry conditions had such an effect on the river was a decade ago.
NOAA winter outlook predicts another La Niña and no end to extreme drought - Winter is coming, and U.S. forecasters are predicting the extreme drought that is affecting more than half of the country will continue, especially in the West.According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's winter outlook, which was released Thursday by the National Weather Service, La Niña — a weather phenomenon caused by the natural cooling of seawater in the tropical Pacific Ocean — will return for the third consecutive winter.The climate pattern affects the position of the jet stream, resulting in dry conditions in the southern half of the country and wetter conditions in the northern half. It's the opposite of El Niño, which occurs when water in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than average.Widespread extreme drought, which continues to persist across much of the West and Great Plains, will continue with La Niña in place. “Parts of the Western U.S. and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, operations chief of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.” However, drought conditions are expected to improve across the Pacific Northwest over the coming months — welcome news for people in Oregon and Washington who are choking on wildfire smoke that has covered the region. NOAA’s winter outlook calls for warmer-than-average temperatures for the South and Southwest and wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Midwest, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. The greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions are in western Alaska, the central Great Basin and the Southwest, extending through the southern Plains, forecasters say, while wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in store for western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The seasonal outlooks are meant to provide American communities with a rough guide for temperatures, precipitation totals and drought conditions for the 90-day period. The winter outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations, as those forecasts are “generally not predictable more than a week in advance,” NOAA said.
Widespread record-breaking morning lows to bring first freeze of the season to parts of the Midwest and South, U.S. -(animated maps, videos) An early-season Great Lakes storm is producing heavy snow, high winds, and large waves. Cold air will grip much of the eastern 2 thirds of the United States in the days ahead, bringing much below-normal temperatures to the East Coast and the first freeze of the season to portions of the Midwest and South. A deep upper-level low pressure system currently sits over the Great Lakes as a strong cold front continues to push south and east of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, leading to a combination of chilly, well-below-normal temperatures for much of the eastern 2 thirds of the United States, as well as wintry precipitation for the Great Lakes, NWS forecaster Putnam noted.1 A cold continental airmass has begun to settle in as high pressure builds southward over the central and southern U.S. Widespread, well-below-normal high and low temperatures are forecast through the short-term period (Wednesday evening LT, October 19), with some upwards of 14 °C (25 °F) below normal and many record-tying/breaking temperatures possible. Freeze Warnings are in effect across broad portions of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-South, and Central/Southern Appalachians. Freeze Watches are in effect further south from northern portions of the Southern Plains east through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into Piedmont. “Lows in the mid-20s to low 30s [(~)-4 to 1 °C] are currently forecast for locations in the Freeze Warnings Tuesday morning, October 18 with lows in the low to mid-30s [~2 °C] for areas in the Freeze Watches on Wednesday morning,” Putnam said. Areas to the north of the Freeze Watches and Warnings, despite already having seen their first freeze, will still experience well below normal, frigid temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the upper-30s to low 40s [3 to 6 °C] for the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes and low to mid-40s [~7 °C] for the Middle Missouri Valley east to the Lower Great Lakes. Highs on Wednesday should warm by about 3 – 6 °C (~5 – 10 °F) across the region. Further south, while a widespread freeze is not currently expected, morning lows on Wednesday will bottom out in the upper-30s to low 40s [~3 to 6 °C] across much of the Gulf Coast. In addition to the chilly temperatures, additional waves of low pressure rotating around the broader upper-level low will continue strong/gusty northwesterly winds across portions of the Great Lakes with a wintry mix of rain and snow showers expected through Wednesday. Any snow accumulations should generally remain on the lighter side with the exception of the Upper Great Lakes, particularly the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Snow showers today will taper off through the day tomorrow, with total accumulations upwards of 15 – 30 cm (6 – 12 inches) possible for some higher elevation, inland locations. Heavy rain is forecast to the east of the cold front as it pushes through Maine during the day Tuesday. Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf Stream will be advected northward ahead of the front and help to enhance rain rates/rainfall totals for showers and thunderstorms along the front.
Wildfires in US west fueling extreme weather in other states, study finds -- Images showing thick clouds of wildfire smoke drifting thousands of miles away have become commonplace in the US in recent years as the country’s western states battle megablazes with increasing frequency. But a new study from US Department of Energy suggests the harmful impact of those behemoth blazes may extend much further. The new study, published by the department’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, for the first time links extreme hail, dangerous deluges, and the growing risk of flash floods in states like Colorado, Wyoming, Oklahoma and Nebraska to the growing intensity of wildfires in the west. As fire season in the west stretches longer, sparking threats earlier in the year, big blazes are increasingly coinciding with storm formations in other states, the research showed.“Western wildfires significantly increase the intensity of severe storms over the central United States,” said Dr Jiwen Fan, an earth scientist at the lab. “This is the first study where we are really showing that wildfires can have a significant impact on the downstream weather.”Fan’s team studied how the heat and airborne particles released by wildfires impact weather patterns elsewhere.The high levels of heat produced by fires can shift air pressure in the atmosphere, which creates strong winds that flow toward the east, Fan explained. Those gusts are able to deliver particles from the fires’ billowing smoke and more atmospheric moisture. Together, these conditions amplify storms already brewing in those areas.Fan’s team found, for example, that wildfires help form larger hail.Collecting more cooled water the hailstones grow larger and larger the more time they spend aloft, the study notes. The hardened precipitation has the potential to damage infrastructure and crops and pose dangers to people who aren’t prepared, the scientists warn. When wildfires become bigger and more frequent the heat impact will be stronger, Fan said, making it more likely they shift the intensity of already forming meteorological conditions.The study presents a warning to central states already challenged by the impact of climate crisis. “The cost of the storms we studied exceeded $100m in damage,” said Yuwei Zhang, one of the authors of the study. “If we know that distant wildfires contribute to stronger storms, that information could bring about better projections, which might help avoid some degree of destruction.”The findings also serve as yet another call to mitigate the rising risks from megafires and invest in strategies that will lessen fire intensity, including reducing the desiccated overgrown vegetation that fuels their growth.
2020 wildfire season in California wiped away 16 years of climate gains - The wildfires that have scorched the West in recent years are not just a consequence of climate change, they also are an increasingly sizable driver of the problem, according to a new study. The research paper, published Monday in the journal Environmental Pollution, finds that California’s wildfires in 2020 caused twice the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that the state successfully cut between 2003 and 2019. In other words, 2020’s wildfire season, which set a record for the number of acres burned in the state, essentially wiped out 16 years of progress California had made on climate change through efforts such as replacing fossil fuels with clean energy. Since wood is full of stored carbon dioxide — the most prevalent greenhouse gas — it is emitted when the wood burns. As average temperatures have grown warmer, California and other Western states have experienced more heat waves and droughts, which are risk factors for wildfires. Currently, a 22-year megadrought is parching the West, forcing water authorities in parts of California to institute water usage limits for residents. The state is also experiencing intensified heat waves. Consequently, wildfires have become more prevalent. Eighteen of the 20 largest wildfires in California’s history have occurred since 2000. The eight largest have all been since 2017, five of them in 2020 alone. The biggest fire in state history, the August Complex Fire in 2020, burned more than 1 million acres of land. In total, more than 9,000 wildfires devastated the Golden State in 2020, sending smoke all the way to the East Coast. More than 4.3 million acres burned, 30 people died and economic losses topped $19 billion. Now, we also know how much emissions were created by all that burning wood, and they accounted for 30% of California’s total emissions, making wildfires the second-largest source of emissions in the state, after transportation. “To the great credit of California’s policy-makers and residents, from 2003 to 2019, California’s GHG emissions declined by 65 million metric tons of pollutants, a 13 percent drop that was largely driven by reductions from the electric power generation sector,” Michael Jerrett, professor of environmental health sciences at UCLA and an author of the study, said in a statement accompanying the report. “Essentially, the positive impact of all that hard work over almost two decades is at risk of being swept aside by the smoke produced in a single year of record-breaking wildfires.”
Large swathes of south-eastern Australia hit by floods - A flood crisis which began last Thursday is continuing to expand, with the disaster impacting directly on tens of thousands across south-east Australia and imperiling hundreds of thousands or even millions more. The two largest east-coast states— Victoria and New South Wales (NSW)—have been affected, along with Tasmania, while there are warnings of possible flooding in Queensland. While in some areas, residents are beginning the painful process of cleaning up inundated homes, the dangers are far from over. In large parts of Victoria, authorities have warned that swollen rivers have yet to peak, meaning that there are ongoing dangers of greater flooding. The threat includes regional and rural areas along the Victoria and NSW border, with the danger extending into the latter state. While heavy rains have eased over the past day, showers and storms are forecast for NSW. Then, from Wednesday, meteorologists are predicting that a low, developing in central Australia, will move east, threatening rainfalls of 20 to 50 millimetres across much of the east coast, including those areas that have already flooded. The flood crisis, some experts have warned, could persist at various levels of intensity for the next six weeks. Speaking to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) this morning, federal Emergency Management Minister Murray Watt said that “We could be looking at up to 9,000 homes inundated in northern Victoria and potentially close to about 34,000 homes in Victoria either inundated or isolated.” That would make the current crisis one of the worst flooding disasters to occur in Victoria in decades. Already, the Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) has reported close to 5,000 calls for assistance, which have led to the organisation conducting some 600 rescues. Over the weekend, the northern Victorian town of Rochester was entirely inundated. Local SES controller Tim Williams told the Sydney Morning Herald that all of the town’s 3,100 residents have been affected. “Every single house in town will have water,” Rochester said. He noted that many homes that had been spared in 2011 floods had this time not escaped the floodwaters. While many of the town’s residents appear to have evacuated, there were confronting scenes when the deluge reached Rochester on Friday and Saturday. In images reminiscent of the Lismore floods early this year in northern NSW, locals rescued one another using small boats and other improvised crafts. On Saturday morning, emergency services discovered the body of 71-year-old Kevin Wills in his backyard. The Rochester resident is the first confirmed fatality in the current floods. His wife only narrowly escaped, having been trapped in the house before being rescued.
Rain threatens record Australian grain harvest forecast -- Australia's near-record winter grain crop is under threat from heavy rainfall that is sweeping the east coast, damaging crops and making it impossible to access fields in some regions. Agricultural bank Rabobank had forecast that Australia's harvest could be a near-record 61.9mn t in its 2022-23 Australian Winter Crop Forecast. But this was put together before the latest wet system that is moving up the east coast, bringing heavy rainfall to already saturated ground and full river systems and leading to flooding. Farms from central Queensland to Victoria have recorded falls of between 400-600mm already this year and another 100-150mm has been predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) for the next 10 days. The BoM beyond the short-term forecast warned that the current La Nina weather pattern, which brings above average rainfall to the east coast and slightly below average to the west coast, could be more damaging this year because of the water already in place from the past two years' of La Nina. While it was too soon to quantify the impact of heavy rainfall and flooding in recent days in Victoria on the state's overall grain production, there has been significant impact on yields of low-lying crops with many under water in central and northern Victoria. But crops on higher country have fared better. Rabobank forecasts wheat production of 35.5mn t, down by 2pc on last year but 47pc above the five-year average. It expects barley production to reach a record 14.8mn t and canola to reach a record 7.2mn t. Australia will have ample grain for export if the forecasts are realised. But the ability to supply world markets will be limited by supply chain bottlenecks, both in regional areas and with capacity at Australian ports. The exportable surplus in Australia from the 2022-23 harvest is expected to reach 47.5mn t, while adding unsold 2021-22 crop could take the exportable surplus to 53.5mn t, according to Rabobank. Australian grains firm Graincorp has received 120,000t of grain in Queensland so far this harvest from Queensland's Central and Western Downs, with harvesting yet to start on the Darling Downs. Graincorp's central Queensland facility at Gindie is already full.
Extreme rainfall hits Taiwan, causing huge agricultural losses - (videos) Extremely heavy rain brought by Tropical Storm “Nesat” over the weekend hit parts of Taiwan, causing huge agricultural losses. The worst affected were farmers in the northern and northeastern parts of the country. Rainfall totals over the course of 72 hours reached astronomical levels as a result of Nesat, according to data from the Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan’s weather service.1 Shilin District of Taipei City recorded 1 818 mm (71.6 inches) of rainfall from October 14 to 16. Over the same period, dozens of other stations in the northern portion of Taiwan recorded rainfall amounts from 700 – 1 000 mm (28 – 40 inches). tc nesat fcst oct 18 2022 According to estimates made by the Council of Agriculture (COA), the torrential rainfall that has drenched Taiwan in recent days has caused at least NT$4.01 million (US$127,000), as of 12:00 LT, October 18. Yilan County has been the hardest hit of any area in Taiwan, with up NT$3.79 million in losses to date, with Taoyuan coming next with estimated losses of NT$220 000. According to the COA, farmers growing cabbage, ginger, garlic sprouts, and green onions were the hardest hit, experiencing losses of NT$1.42 million, NT$862 000, NT$629 000, and NT$516 000, respectively.
Massive landslide hits Taiwan’s Yilan County - (video) Heavy rains caused a massive landslide near Highway 7 in Taiwan’s Yilan County on October 15, 2022, stranding dozens of cars. There are no reports of injuries. The rain was brought by Tropical Storm “Nesat” as it moved between the Philippines and Tawan over the weekend. “Moisture from the storm’s outermost rain bands dramatically enhanced rainfall totals across a swath of Taiwan as it tracked through the Luzon Strait,” AccuWeather meteorologist Mary Gilbert noted.1 “Rainfall totals over the course of 72 hours reached astronomical levels as a result of Nesat, according to data from the Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan’s weather service. Shilin District of Taipei City recorded 1 818 mm (71.6 inches) of rainfall from October 14 to 16. Over the same period, dozens of other stations in the northern portion of Taiwan recorded rainfall amounts from 700 – 1 000 (28 – 40 inches). “While the highest totals in Taiwan were mainly confined to the highest elevation areas, torrential rainfall and flooding also affected heavily populated parts of the country,” Gilbert said.
Extreme flooding hits Crete, Greece - (videos) A powerful storm hit the Greek island of Crete on October 15, 2022, causing flash floods described by the Greek Fire Department as extreme. Preliminary figures show 239 mm (9.4 inches) of rain fell in Sitia and 142.7 mm (5.6 inches) in Heraklion in 24 hours to early October 16. The rain caused rivers to overflow in a number of areas, damaging buildings, turning roads into raging rivers and sweeping dozens of cars into the sea. At least 2 people lost their lives while several remain missing. The Greek Fire Department described the floods as ‘extreme’ and added they received 453 calls for help in just one hour. Some 30 people were evacuated, including 9 from an archeological site in Sitia. The same weather system impacted Sicily, Italy on October 13:
Weeks After Hurricane Ian, Hundreds of Floridians Remain in Shelters - — Irene Peralta and Oscar Garcia first met at the Hertz Arena as teenagers 18 years ago, when it served as an emergency shelter after Hurricane Charley devastated a swath of Southwest Florida in 2004. They sought shelter there again last month as Hurricane Ian approached, this time as a married couple with three children in tow. Three weeks after the ruinous Category 4 storm made landfall, they are preparing to move with several hundred other displaced Floridians from the arena to a longer-term shelter opening on Wednesday in North Fort Myers, still reeling from extensive damage to their mobile home and searching for options. “We’re just waiting to see what help we can get,” Ms. Peralta, 31, said. As of Tuesday, 476 people remained at two public shelters in Lee County, most of them at Hertz, an ice hockey and concert arena. The county took a direct hit, with 5,041 residential properties destroyed and 13,052 suffering major damage, records show. Many of their occupants have second homes or relatives with a guest room to fall back on, or can secure rental properties while they await federal disaster assistance, insurance adjusters and general contractors to help them begin rebuilding their lives. Image Ms. Peralta and Mr. Garcia’s vehicle, where they have kept mostly toys for their children while they stay at the Hertz Arena.Credit...Alfonso Duran for The New York Times But many of the people relying on shelters have none of those options. Sleeping side by side on American Red Cross cots and air mattresses are service-sector employees who are newly homeless and unemployed, retirees dependent on Social Security checks, and newcomers to the region with neither resources nor connections. Many were renters in North Fort Myers and other lower-income areas, barely making it even before Ian. “I’m just at a standstill,” said Kionna Tobler, a single mother of two young boys. She lived in Pine Manor, a low-income neighborhood in Fort Myers, and did not have a car or formal lease before the storm. Her roommate, who held the lease for the $1,200-a-month rental home, died shortly before Ian hit, she said. Without a lease, Ms. Tobler is uncertain what help she will receive. Last Friday, she learned that the American Red Cross had assigned her a case manager, who she hoped would call soon. “It’s just real frustrating,” she said. “We need better communication.” The Red Cross has been operating the two shelters in Lee County and another in Collier County since early October. Representatives of the Federal Emergency Management Agency have been on site at the Hertz Arena; the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development has also been working with families there.
Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian - Less than a month after Hurricane Ian caused widespread devastation to southwestern Florida, investors and other buyers are scouring for housing deals in a region where home prices have soared in recent years. Demand remains strong from both locals and out-of-staters, according to residential real-estate agents in Naples, Fla., and other areas near the path of the Category 4 storm. They say they have received numerous inquiries from people still interested in relocating to the Sunshine State, or hoping to pick up distressed properties.
Massive ash plume from Chikurachki volcano drifting over the Pacific Ocean (satellite video) An explosive eruption began at Chikurachki volcano at around 15:10 UTC on October 15, 2022, producing an eruptive column up to 4.5 km (14 700 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code was raised from Green to Orange. By the end of the day, the plume extended about 345 km (214 miles) ESE of the volcano. At 04:20 UTC on October 16, the plume was extending up to 520 km (323 miles) ESE.1 Ash explosions up to 6 km (19 700 ft) a.s.l. could occur at any time, KVERT warns. Ongoing activity could affect low-flying aircraft.
New Jersey latest state to sue oil companies over climate misinformation - New Jersey latest state to sue oil companies over climate misinformation The state is going after five oil companies – ExxonMobil, Shell Oil, Chevron, BP and ConocoPhillips – for their role in the climate crisis ‘The industry engaged in a conspiracy of misinformation,’ says Yale Law School’s deputy dean Doug Kysar. ‘And it ended up looking like a fraud on democracy.’ ‘The industry engaged in a conspiracy of misinformation,’ says Yale Law School’s deputy dean Doug Kysar. ‘And it ended up looking like a fraud on democracy.’ Photograph: Peter Summers/Getty Images New Jersey has joined the ranks of Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Vermont as the latest state to sue some of the world’s largest oil companies for their role in delaying climate policy and increasing the climate impacts, risks and costs borne by state governments. Like Minnesota and the District of Columbia before it, New Jersey has also included the industry’s top US trade group, the American Petroleum Institute, in its suit, which includes not only liability, but also fraud claims against five oil majors: ExxonMobil, Shell Oil, Chevron, BP and ConocoPhillips. Some two dozen climate liability suits have been making their way through the courts since 2015, bolstered by media investigations and attribution studies that are able to accurately pinpoint the precise contribution climate change has made to the damages inflicted by extreme weather events. A 2021 study in the journal Nature, for example, found that just over $8bn (£7bn) of the $62.7bn (£55.3bn) in damages caused by Superstorm Sandy across New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, is attributable to sea-level rise caused by climate change. Patrick Parenteau, professor and senior fellow for climate policy at Vermont Law School says that while these cases started as common law nuisance claims – these companies created the nuisance of climate change, which caused financial damages to various cities and states – they “have evolved to where the failure-to-warn based claims and duty of care type claims are coming to the forefront”, which is why the more recently filed cases all tend to include fraud claims as well. The damages and the fraud go hand in hand, the argument goes. The costs of dealing with climate change today are measurably higher because oil companies, aided by the American Petroleum Institute in this case, misled the public about climate change. This “failure to warn” approach helps to narrow the fraud claims to something a court can actually rule on, according to Doug Kysar, deputy dean and professor at Yale Law School. “Earlier cases took a broader approach to fraud.” “Like the industry engaged in a conspiracy of misinformation,” Kysar says. “And it ended up looking like a fraud on democracy … like this industry was so powerful and so diabolical in their efforts that they hoodwinked the entire government for the last few decades. To be honest, I think that that is what happened. But that’s an uncomfortable place for a court – to be willing to pronounce that an entire governmental system was manipulated and defrauded by powerful actors.” Kysar says this approach instead poses a simple and relatively narrow question: “Would people have behaved differently? Would they have stopped buying gas-powered vehicles if they had a better understanding of the hazards of those products, not only to future generations, but now immediately to us – like would they behave differently? And I think that that’s probably a smart move from the plaintiffs’ lawyers’ perspective.”
N.J. invokes Superstorm Sandy wreckage in new climate lawsuit - The Garden State is one of two dozen local governments suing Big Oil for allegedly lying to consumers and contributing to global warming. New Jersey on Tuesday threw its weight behind a growing effort by local governments to hold oil and gas companies financially accountable for allegedly lying to consumers about the fossil fuel industry’s role in accelerating climate change. The Garden State's lawsuit — one of two dozen climate liability cases filed by cities, states and counties nationwide — comes as the Supreme Court weighs two industry petitions that seek to quash the liability cases. It also comes almost exactly 10 years after Superstorm Sandy made landfall in New Jersey, killing 38 and leaving more than 300,000 homes damaged. State Attorney General Matthew Platkin (D), who filed the case in New Jersey Superior Court, said while announcing the lawsuit that New Jersey would have been better prepared for the storm had the fossil fuel industry not downplayed the risks of burning fossil fuels. “We could have taken actions that would have mitigated or even eliminated many of the risks of climate change, including the prevalence of dangerous storms like Sandy,” Platkin said. “Today we begin to right the wrongs inflicted on our residents by companies who deliberately chose profits over our global environment and the well being of our residents.” ...
UK Announces Plans To Crack Down On Climate Protests - UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman has unveiled plans for a major crackdown on disruptive protests by climate activists, whom she described as “thugs and vandals” trying to hold the public “to ransom.”Climate activists from groups such as Extinction Rebellion, Just Stop Oil, and Insulate Britain have staged various protests and demonstrations in recent months, causing widespread disruption.Braverman said: “I will not bend to protestors attempting to hold the British public to ransom. Preventing our emergency services from reaching those who desperately need them is indefensible, hideously selfish, and in no way in the public interest. “This serious and dangerous disruption, let alone the vandalism, is not a freedom of expression, nor a human right. It must stop.”In an op-ed for The Mail on Sunday, she wrote: “Enough is enough. Getting in the way of ambulances, fire engines, and cars carrying babies to hospital isn’t just illegal, it’s monstrously selfish.”She said the public expects the police to “do a better job of cracking down on these thugs and vandals.”“If they think they’re above the law, they’re sorely mistaken,” she added. The home secretary said she will give the police new powers to take a more “proactive” approach to some protests.Accusing protesters of draining police resources, Braverman will use the government’s Public Order Bill to allow secretaries of state to apply for injunctions in the public interest where protests are causing or threatening “serious disruption or a serious adverse impact on public safety.”"The mob needs to be stopped"Home Secretary Suella Braverman says police must have "all the powers they need" to stop protestors who use "guerrilla tactics" to bring "chaos and misery to the law-abiding majority"https://t.co/d2b6Mcryax pic.twitter.com/oj5lt9Ou63
Residents in Livingston, St. Helena continue pushback against carbon capture technology - Residents of several parishes continued their fight against carbon capture injection wells Thursday night, imposing two moratoriums intended to slow the technology's reach in their community. The Livingston Parish Council, which already passed a temporary, year-long moratorium on "Class VI" injection wells, which are used to store carbon, approved a similar pause for so-called "Class V wells" — wells used for injection of non-hazardous fluids. Although Class V wells have various purposes, the council opposes their specific use as test wells that explore geologic formations before CO2 is injected. That process — a data collection step for companies — takes place before the carbon capture well is permitted.In nearby St. Helena, council members voted to pass a moratorium on carbon capture injection wells, just as Livingston Parish did in early September. "I think it’s safer for our parish now to accept that we don’t know the damage it’ll do 5 years, 10 years from now, so I think the best thing is that it did pass,” St. Helena Parish acting police jury president Ryan Byrd said after the meeting.He added that there aren’t any official carbon capture projects on the horizon in the parish, though rumors that companies were looking at St. Helena for future projects led them to pass the moratorium as a safety precaution.Carbon capture and sequestration is the process by which an industrial plant traps its carbon dioxide emissions, then buries them deep underground in injection wells.Two carbon capture projects are being considered for Livingston Parish.Oxy Low Carbon Ventures, a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum, plans to build a carbon sequestration facility near the Holden area. Company officials have said they hope to have that facility online by 2025.Air Products plans to build a blue hydrogen manufacturing plant near Ascension Parish's Burnside area that would extract methane from natural gas. The carbon dioxide produced in the process would be captured and put under pressure, turning it into a liquid. The liquid would be injected deep underground in wells across Livingston, St. James, St. John the Baptist and Tangipahoa parishes.
CO2 pipeline developer files for North Dakota permit; easement negotiations continue with landowners (copy) The developer of a proposed pipeline that would gather carbon dioxide emissions in several Midwestern states and transport them to North Dakota for permanent underground storage filed a permit request Monday with North Dakota regulators for the transportation component of the project. The Public Service Commission will review the application, hold a public hearing and eventually decide whether to issue the permit -- a process likely to take several months. Summit Carbon Solutions later will file separate permit applications with the North Dakota Industrial Commission for the storage sites in Oliver and Mercer counties, northwest of Bismarck. Summit has signed easement agreements with more than 500 North Dakota landowners, totaling 160 miles of the proposed pipeline route in the state and 130,000 acres of the proposed carbon storage sites. Executive Vice President Wade Boeshans told the Tribune that the company is still negotiating with roughly 250 to 300 North Dakota landowners. He said “there is a possibility for projects such as this to use eminent domain,” but the goal is to negotiate agreeable terms with landowners. Eminent domain involves the seizure of land for a project if property owners can’t reach an agreement with the company; those landowners are still compensated but likely not at the level they sought. Some landowners are concerned that Summit might resort to the tactic, and several county commissions including Burleigh County's have passed nonbinding resolutions opposing the potential use of eminent domain for the pipeline. “We have not used eminent domain in any of the states on the project,” Boeshans said. “... Keep in mind, this is the largest infrastructure project in the Upper Midwest in over a decade and we are far exceeding our voluntary easements.” Summit began securing easements in January and is nearing half of what it needs across the five-state project. The developer also has submitted permit applications in Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota, with public hearings expected in coming months.
Clean hydrogen hub plans taking shape in the Midwest and Great Plains. PADD 2 — the 15-state region that includes both the Midwest and the Great Plains — is a major player in U.S. hydrocarbon production and refining, not to mention energy consumption, with its rich mix of industry and farming. It’s also bound to be a hot spot in the energy transition, given its vast wind resources, scores of ethanol plants, and extensive plans for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Not surprisingly, there also may be a clean hydrogen hub or two in PADD 2’s future — after all, it’s got natural gas in spades, plus lots of zero-carbon nuclear plants, countless wind farms, and more existing and potential hydrogen end-users than you can shake a stick at. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the PADD 2 proposals now under development and why they may have a good shot at winning Department of Energy (DOE) support.A provision in last year’s $1-trillion-plus Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act provides a total of up to $8 billion in federal funding over five years to support the development of several clean hydrogen hubs around the U.S. Last month, the DOE announced that concept papers from hub proponents are due November 7; full applications are due April 7, 2023; winners will be notified in the fall of 2023; and award negotiations with the winners will be completed in the winter of 2023-24. DOE also said that most of the six to 10 selected proposals will each receive between $500 million and $1 billion in federal support, though it’s possible that a proposal could receive a little less or a little more, depending on its size and need.For a few weeks now, we’ve been blogging about some of the most promising hub concepts being bandied about. First, we looked at the proposed Houston Hydrogen Hub, then followed that up with blogs on planned clean-hydrogen hubs in the Corpus Christi area, Southern California, and a trio of states — Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Most recently, in Everything, we discussed plans for a hub in Appalachia that would be centered in northern West Virginia (and extend into western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio) and be founded primarily on the production of hydrogen from natural gas by steam methane reforming (SMR) or auto thermal reforming (ATR); the capture and sequestration of a large portion of the carbon dioxide (CO2) generated by that production; and the use of that hydrogen by a wide range of end-users. We also looked at a complementary plan by Equinor, Shell and U.S. Steel to advance a smaller hydrogen hub in the three-state region.Two clean hydrogen hub proposals are at the fore in PADD 2, one involving four states and the other involving seven. (Wisconsin and Minnesota are participating in both efforts.)We’ll begin with the joint effort by Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota and Montana — the last of which is actually part of PADD 4 (Rockies) — to develop what we’ll refer to as the Great Plains Hydrogen Hub. Its primary element would be a large SMR- or ATR-based hydrogen production facility at what is now Dakota Gasification Co.’s Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah, ND. (Dakota Gasification is a for-profit subsidiary of Basin Electric Power Cooperative.) The plant, which was completed in 1984, each day converts about 18,000 tons of locally mined lignite coal into 150 MMcf of synthetic natural gas (syngas) and other products, including urea, anhydrous ammonia and tar oil. The facility (see photo below) captures about 50% of the CO2 generated during the coal-gasification process. The 8,000 metric tons (MT) a day of captured CO2 then is transported by pipeline more than 200 miles north to the province of Saskatchewan, where it is used in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the Weyburn and Midale fields (read more about it in Forever and Always).
Shell Closes UK Hydrogen Filling Stations -Shell Plc quietly shut down two UK hydrogen filling stations earlier this year as electric vehicles became the preferred way to cut greenhouse gas emissions on the roads. Sites at Gatwick and Cobham in southeast England were closed, according to the energy giant. The decision reflects an uptick in the use of EVs, with major automakers plowing resources into new models as batteries improve. Although hydrogen vehicles are quicker to fill up, there are few sites to do so and prices remain steep. Auto companies sold 16,300 hydrogen-powered cars last year, compared with about 4.6 million electric vehicles, according to researcher BloombergNEF. Shell’s Gatwick and Cobham stations, which were operated by ITM Motive Ltd., were small, prototype sites. The oil major is more focused on the potential to use hydrogen for heavy industry and possibly long-haul trucking, which is currently harder to electrify. It’s also racing to add car-charging points, aiming for 500,000 such chargers by 2025, up from about 90,000 today.
Net Zero Tracker joint report finds significant gap in corporate climate plans -Huge privately held companies trail shareholder-owned counterparts by a "disturbing distance" in setting climate targets and plans to meet them, a new analysis finds.A joint report from Net Zero Tracker examined the 100 largest public and private companies by revenue.
- Sixty-nine of the top 100 publicly traded companies have net-zero emissions targets, compared to 32 of the largest private firms.
- Among those with targets, 73% of the public companies have published plans to meet them, compared to just 13% of their private counterparts.
- You can see a snapshot of some big sectors above, and check out more graphics.
The combined annual revenue of the top 100 privately held companies is over $4 trillion, or 5% of the global economy, the report states. Public companies facing pressure on climate sometimes dump high-polluting assets, which private players may snap up."When reputation-conscious publicly-listed companies divest polluting assets to private firms, there is no overall reduction in the GHG emissions related to these assets," the report states.Read the analysis.
Clean energy transition gains speed, despite global tumult - Investment in wind and solar is set to outpace oil and gas drilling for the first time this year, according to one analyst — a milestone in the worldwide transition to clean energy that comes in spite of a spiraling energy crisis and calls to increase fossil fuel production. The projection by Rystad Energy is in line with a separate prediction by DNV GL, another company that tracks energy markets. DNV thinks a short-term boost for coal in developing countries is no match in the long term for the march of falling renewable costs, electrification and increasing carbon prices. These forecasts — and others like it — suggest the clean energy transition has remained durable in the face of prevailing headwinds. The International Energy Agency estimates the growth of low-carbon electricity generation this year will lead to a slight decrease in fossil fuel generation. And the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects renewables will generate more power in the United States this year than coal. “The turbulence in the energy market does not dramatically alter the decarbonization pathway towards midcentury,” Remi Eriksen, DNV president and CEO, said in a statement. “The strongest engine of the global energy transition is the rapidly reducing costs of solar and wind energy, which will outweigh the present short-term shocks to the energy system.” The growth in renewables is notable in a year when the cost of energy has been thrust to the forefront of public debate. Energy prices have risen steadily in the last year due to the combination of pandemic-induced supply chain bottlenecks; surging demand; and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which upended global energy markets. Many countries have responded by increasing fossil fuel production. The United Kingdom lifted a ban on hydraulic fracturing and issued a round of new licenses for oil drilling in the North Sea. Europe is on a liquefied natural gas binge, driving up LNG prices and leading to higher coal burn in Asia. President Joe Biden has unsuccessfully urged Saudi Arabia to boost oil production to help tame rising gasoline prices. But the climate impact has so far been less than feared. While coal generation is up in India and other parts of Asia, continued Covid-19 lockdowns in China have blunted greenhouse gas output from the world’s top emitter. Carbon Monitor, an academic emissions tracker, estimates Chinese carbon dioxide emissions were down 2 percent, or 155 million tons, through August. European emissions are up 81 million tons, an increase of 4 percent over last year. Power plants accounted for 61 million tons of that increase, as the continent leaned into coal amid reduced output from the French nuclear fleet and weak hydro production. Yet strong renewable production, along with mild temperatures and falling gas prices, has taken some of the bite out of emissions and power prices. European electricity prices are down 60-70 percent from their August peak, according to Rystad. The Oslo, Norway-based consulting firm expects the trend to continue. In 2022, capital spending on wind and solar is projected to reach $494 billion, eclipsing the $446 billion spent on upstream oil and gas production. That marks the first time that spending on wind and solar has eclipsed oil and gas drilling. High power prices will increase the returns for renewable projects. Rystad found that renewable projects in a handful of European countries could pay back their costs within a year at current power prices.
U.S. To Hold First-Ever Pacific Offshore Wind Lease Sale - The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) will hold an offshore wind energy lease sale in December for areas off central and northern California. This will be the first-ever offshore wind lease sale on America's west coast and the first-ever U.S. sale to support potential commercial-scale floating offshore wind energy development. This sale is needed to achieve the Biden-Harris administration's deployment goals of 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 and 15 GW of floating offshore wind energy by 2035. "The demand and momentum to build a clean energy future is undeniable. I am proud of the teams at the Interior Department that are moving forward at the pace and scale required to help achieve the President's goals to make offshore wind energy, including floating offshore wind energy, a reality for the United States," said Secretary Deb Haaland. "Today, we are taking another step toward unlocking the immense offshore wind energy potential off our nation's west coast to help combat the effects of climate change while lowering costs for American families and creating good-paying union jobs." In May 2021, Secretary Haaland and California Governor Gavin Newsom joined Biden-Harris administration leaders to announce an agreement to advance areas for wind energy development offshore the northern and central coasts of California. BOEM will offer five California OCS lease areas that total approximately 373,268 acres with the potential to produce over 4.5 GW of offshore wind energy, power more than 1.5 million homes, and support thousands of new jobs. "Today's announcement represents years of close coordination and engagement with the state of California, Tribes, ocean users, local communities and all interested parties to move us closer towards achieving the administration's vision to fight climate change and realizing California's clean energy future, while creating a domestic supply chain and good-paying union jobs," said BOEM Director Amanda Lefton, during the Offshore WindPower 2022 Conference. To date, BOEM has held 10 competitive lease sales and issued 27 active commercial wind leases in the Atlantic Ocean from Massachusetts to North Carolina.3:47 AM
Solar panels and crops can coexist, but more study needed on how and where -A recent analysis reveals the daunting number of variables that need to be considered when attempting to pair agricultural production and solar generation. Federal researchers know that solar panels and crops can coexist and provide mutual benefits in certain scenarios. A recent study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) confirms this but also shows that such co-location can lead to crop or financial losses, including from complications like mold-causing dew accumulation and soil damage from construction equipment. Advocates who see the concept as a potential solution to land-use constraints are now pushing for more funding and collaboration with farmers to test and document outcomes in as many different settings as possible. The hope is that they can prove benefits in enough scenarios to help the solution scale beyond the handful of small farms that have currently implemented it. “We know we can grow food under solar projects,” said the NREL paper’s lead author, Jordan Macknick. “What remains to be seen is if we can scale up agrivoltaics in a way that meaningfully improves local food production and farmers’ bottom lines while also aligning with the realities of solar development costs, timelines, and practices.” NREL defines agrivoltaics as the “sharing of sunlight between the two energy conversion systems: photovoltaics and photosynthesis,” and notes that “the solar and agricultural activities [must] have an influence on each other.” Agrivoltaics includes planting pollinator habitat in and around solar panels, and allowing animals to graze around panels. But the sector with the most variables to study is arguably the growing of crops under and between solar panels. The analysis confirmed that agrivoltaics can help in water-stressed areas, since the shade from panels reduces evaporation due to sun and wind, and water from precipitation or even water used to clean panels can be collected and funneled to crops. Electricity generated can also be used on-site to power pumps for irrigation. At a “dry farming” test site in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, researchers are exploring whether agrivoltaics minimize a condition in tomatoes known as blossom end rot exacerbated by drought. Increased moisture retention from solar panels can also create complications, however. Rodents and insects may be attracted by humidity and moisture, the study notes; rodents can hurt crops and also chew through electric wires. At Jack’s Solar Garden in Colorado, fungus grew where runoff from dew on the panels collected. Researchers noted that problems could be averted by moving beds away from the drip, or otherwise managing dew collection. “If a plant is in a more humid environment, it is less stressed about conserving water, and it can do more photosynthesis,” he said. That means more growth of leafy greens like kale and lettuce, and more resources drawn from the leaves for fruiting plants like peppers.Construction of agrivoltaics — with heavy equipment — can compact soil, making it harder for it to hold water and nutrients. InSPIRE research in Colorado showed soil at agrivoltaic sites still compacted a decade after construction. But using certain types of equipment and construction processes can reduce the impact on soil. University of Maine researchers are studying whether lower-impact “careful” or “mindful” construction practices can improve agrivoltaic blueberry yields.Understanding the local soil variation and quality can help minimize harm. Investigating previous uses of the land, including herbicide and pesticide use and types of crops grown, also helps in designing successful agrivoltaic projects.
Clean energy buyers grappling with supply chain - US renewable energy buyers continue to contend with a market beset by supply chain disruptions, but recent federal legislation bolstering investments in low-carbon technologies could eventually smooth the landscape, industry analysts said this week.. US renewable energy projects may have to push back operations in the near-term as developers continue to wrestle with a confluence of hurdles in the supply chain, consultancy Edison Energy, a subsidiary of California utility Edison International, said in its third quarter market update. These constraints on new generation coincide with demand for renewables hitting "record highs." The near-term development pipeline for "available" projects — those that have not fully contracted for their output — remains thin, with Edison saying it expects just seven such utility-scale wind and solar farms combined on line in 2023. That total is expected to jump to 27 in 2024 and 30 in 2025, with another 17 projects slated for 2026 or after. The bulk of those available projects, 65 overall, are solar farms. One new impediment to the US solar industry is the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which restricts goods imported from China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from entry into the country under the assumption they were made with forced labor. The US began enforcing the law in late June and in roughly three months has detained more than 3,000MW of solar panels at the border. Industry analysts forecast that the US could impede 9,000-12,000MW of modules by the end of 2022. The US relies heavily on imported raw materials, components and modules to build new solar farms. This disruption, coupled with high demand, will result in delayed operations, and buyers should expect premiums on purchases from systems with allocated panels, Edison said. As the sector builds more transparency into the supply chain, and the industry can ensure "responsible sourcing," delays will alleviate, likely in the "medium-term." Additionally, uncertainties around the US Department of Commerce's inquiry into solar imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam — whichfroze the solar sector during the second quarter — still loom over the sector after Commerce extended the deadline for its preliminary decision to 28 November. While President Joe Biden delayed the onset of any new tariffs resulting from the agency's investigation until June 2024, the industry remains "eager" to see where Commerce will land on the issue, as any decision will provide "longer-term clarity" on the availability of components and help set price expectations going forward. The four countries under investigation provided 80pc of the US panel supply to be installed this year, according to Edison.
Truck makers fight climate rules while touting an electric future - Under pressure to phase out diesel-powered trucks, major manufacturers have offered plenty of assurances. Volvo plans to be “fossil free” by 2040 and boasted in its latest annual report that it was “leading the transformation” of the industry. Daimler Truck, the largest maker of heavy trucks globally, has set a goal of selling only carbon-neutral trucks and buses in the United States, Europe and Japan by 2039. But behind the scenes, the truck industry’s lobbyists are working to delay that clean-truck future. The Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association, which represents the nation’s largest truck manufacturers, has pushed to weaken tougher federal rules curbing planet-warming gases and other pollutants. The industry has also led a campaign against a new California rule, adopted by five other states, that would require manufacturers to sell more zero-emission trucks.If truck makers win, environmentalists argue, they will be able to continue selling diesel vehicles for longer, postponing a transition to electric power.“What we’re seeing from their lobbying is they want to commit to as little as possible,” said Dave Cooke, a senior vehicles analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Promises in press releases don’t actually mean anything. They can say we’re setting a target, we’re spending money, but that doesn’t have to produce results.”While the push to convert America’s passenger cars to electric power is accelerating, the same transition for medium- and heavy-duty trucks has just begun. Truck makers say they can only move as quickly as the market allows, while environmentalists counter that these companies have already waited too long to electrify and will keep dragging their feet without hard deadlines.Policymakers are targeting the sector because it accounts for nearly a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles in the United States and generates harmful pollutants that cost thousands of lives each year. A recent American Lung Association report estimates switching to zero-emission trucks would prevent 66,800 premature deaths over the next 30 years.
Climate law spurs 'big jumps' in U.S. battery investments - A controversial provision in the Inflation Reduction Act appears to be having its intended effect. The climate and health law included a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, but EV buyers can only receive the full amount if the car’s battery components are manufactured in North America. That’s not the case for most car models. The requirement was a wake-up call for the EV industry, which is largely reliant on supply chains originating in China. It was also a risky call to action. Manufacturers would need to dive head first into battery production in the U.S. to make the valuable tax credits viable. That wager is starting to pay off. EV battery manufacturing is showing signs of a boom in the U.S., said Michael Plante, a senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, where he has done research on EV and battery markets. The EV industry is riding a wave of optimism, eyeing tens of billions of dollars in announced investments that stand to spur exponential growth in American companies as they fight for prominence in the global EV market, according to experts and advocates. “There’s all sorts of money flowing around right now, and it’s enough money to move the needle in terms of battery production,” Plante said. “That’s a big deal.” Planned investment in gigafactories — huge facilities dedicated to lithium-ion battery manufacturing — currently exceeds $40 billion. Much of that funding has come in the past few years, driven largely by a surge in EV demand, according to a report published last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Automakers and battery manufacturers have committed to investing nearly $100 billion in transportation electrification in the U.S. since 2017, according to a September report from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. By 2025, domestic battery plant manufacturing capacity could increase by about 333 percent over 2020 levels, the trade group estimates. The Inflation Reduction Act appears to have catalyzed even more domestic battery manufacturing. “Immediately after the IRA, we saw — and we’re continuing to see — this slew of announcements” from big players in the automotive and energy technology industries, including General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., SK Innovation Co. Ltd. and LG Chem Ltd., said Harry Godfrey, managing director at Advanced Energy Economy. North American lithium battery manufacturers — most of them in the U.S. — currently produce roughly 100 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity annually. (A “gigafactory” can make enough batteries annually to store 1 GWh of energy, enough to power between 10,000 and 20,000 EVs.) That output is expected to double in the next two years and could be as high as 1,000 GWh by 2030, Godfrey said. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a price-reporting agency for the lithium-ion battery to EV supply chain, has reported similar estimates.
Can The U.S. And Its Allies Break China's Stranglehold On EV Batteries? - Global demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is on the rise, and with it demand for EV batteries and the key minerals needed to produce them. China is the world’s fourth-largest producer of lithium — perhaps the most important EV component of all — and is far-and-away the #1 lithium processor, giving it a critical edge over the U.S. and its democratic, capitalist trading partners as EV production and sales ramp up. The Biden administration and Congress have been taking a number of steps to enable the U.S. and its compadres to reduce — with an aim to end — our dependence on Chinese batteries going forward. One recent move by the U.S. was to provide EV subsidies only to vehicles whose batteries and battery components come from the U.S., Canada or other countries we can depend on through thick and thin. But much more substantial advances need to be made to encourage lithium production if there’s to be any hope of securing a significant portion of the minerals expected to be required for an energy transition. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss these efforts and the challenges the U.S. and its friends face in becoming “EV-battery independent.”The pace at which American drivers switch from internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, SUVs and pickups to EVs is much more than an idle curiosity to U.S. crude oil producers and refiners. If EV adoption is fast and furious, domestic demand for gasoline and diesel could begin to decline — but if EV adoption is slow and sluggish, the decline in motor fuel demand would be much more gradual. The proliferation of EVs would make Americans even more dependent on an electric grid that is increasingly under stress to meet today’s demand, never mind the extra demand from widespread EV charging. And despite the addition of a large number of wind farms and solar facilities in recent years, that grid is still powered primarily by fossil fuels (mostly natural gas and coal).For these and other reasons, we’ve been monitoring developments in the EV space for some time now in stand-alone blogs like Electric Avenue and blog series like One Shining Moment, where (in Part 3) we discussed the gains in global EV sales in 2021 and 2022, the potentially market-moving government incentives for EVs in the recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the slew of new U.S. battery-manufacturing plants announced by Honda, LG Energy Solution, Tesla, Panasonic, Toyota and Our Next Energy this year. We’ve also posted a four-part series,Tell It Like It Is, on the very serious challenges the U.S. and the rest of the world face in developing, producing and processing the astonishing volumes of minerals, metals and other materials that will be needed to make the energy transition a reality.In the short blog series we begin today, we'll tie all this together by addressing three important questions:
- How dependent are the U.S. and its friends on EV minerals produced and/or processed in China — and on EV batteries manufactured there?
- How do the Biden administration’s policies and the EV-related provisions in the new IRA hope to reduce and even end that reliance?
- What are the prospects for success on that front, and what are the consequences of failure?
There’s lithium in them thar hills – but fears grow over US ‘white gold’ boom - Deep in the parched landscapes of Nevada, there is a stirring boom. The mining of lithium holds the promise of a treasured resource that can help slow disastrous global heating.Spurred by a growing demand for battery parts essential for electric vehicles, the US’s only major lithium mine, in Silver Peak, a remote outpost situated in desert scrub and nascent Joshua trees a three-hour drive north of Las Vegas, is doubling its production.Across Nevada, there are more than 17,000 prospecting claims for lithium, a soft metal dubbed “white gold” by investors due to its scarcity and increasing value as clean energy components, with several new major projects now planned. Nevada can be to lithium “what Wall Street is to finance, or what Silicon Valley is to technology”, Steve Sisolak, the state’s governor, has envisioned.This surge is a critical step in tackling the climate crisis according to Joe Biden’s administration, which has used cold war-era emergency powers to force a ramp up in the domestic mining of lithium and other materials needed for electric cars, heat pumps and other clean energy technology.But the prospect of this new era of mining has unnerved some environmentalists and native American groups. Three-quarters of all known deposits of lithium in America are found near tribal land, igniting fears that a decline in destructive fossil-fuel mining could simply be replaced by a new form of harmful extraction.Plans for a major, controversial new lithium mine in northern Nevada – a 1,000-acre site called Thacker Pass – will “will turn what is left of my ancestral homelands into a sacrifice zone for electric car batteries”, Shelley Harjo, a member of the Fort McDermitt Paiute and Shoshone Tribe, has warned, all still without meeting the burgeoning thirst for lithium.
Will tough standards for heat pump tax credits hurt adoption? - Industry insiders spar over whether the climate bill’s $2,000 tax credit for heat pumps should require higher-efficiency models or loosen standards to expand the market. Heat pumps are a key technology for making buildings more energy efficient and getting homes off dirty fossil fuels. That’s why the Inflation Reduction Act is offering tens of billions of dollars in tax credits and rebates to entice U.S. consumers to install them.But what if the biggest tax credit in that policy mix — up to $2,000 for heat pumps that use electricity to heat and cool buildings — comes with such a high bar for efficiency that most heat pumps now available in the country can’t meet it? This brewing conflict underscores how complicated climate-friendly policy can get when good intentions run headlong into less-than-ideal market realities. Some industry insiders worry that the performance standards now in place to drive manufacturers to build even more efficient heat pumps could severely limit the number of products available to customers who want to draw on federal incentives to help pay for the switch from fossil gas to electric heating. That could give the technology, and the tax credits meant to promote it, a bad reputation, said Nate Adams, an electrification advocate and CEO of HVAC 2.0, a company that makes software used by HVAC installers.“If there are too many bad experiences, it can really slow things down,” he said. “Word-of-mouth marketing is really critical” for an industry that’s still largely organized around local and regional networks of contractors and installers, he said. “Bad reviews get read hundreds of times.”
As Puerto Rico’s Privatized Power Grid Collapses, Its Owner Eyes A Bigger Payday --- Andrés Gutiérrez Toro considered himself lucky. After Hurricane María destroyed Puerto Rico’s electrical system ― triggering a historic 11-month blackout across much of the island ― and left thousands dead, he lost power for only five months. Still, the situation was so brutal that he ponied up to buy a diesel generator and solar panels. The investment paid off. The power grid never fully recovered from the 2017 storm, and it became even less reliable in June 2021, when LUMA Energy, a private company, took over electricity sales in the United States’ most populous territorial possession. Monthly bills went up, and up and up ― seven rate hikes in total. Gutiérrez regularly paid almost $350 a month, and that was with the discount that came from producing his own solar power. Neighbors were paying upward of $500. The outages, meanwhile, got worse, averaging about three per month, lasting four hours or more each time. Gutiérrez, a family physician, opened his clinic to patients who couldn’t afford generators, so diabetics could refrigerate insulin and asthmatics could use breathing machines. Now even that isn’t enough to contain what Gutiérrez called the “domino effect” of the latest disaster. It’s been nearly a month since Hurricane Fiona, a relatively minor Category 1 storm, once again knocked out Puerto Rico’s entire power system. And much of Cabo Rojo, the west coast beach town where Gutiérrez lives with his wife and two kids, in a single-story home in a middle-class neighborhood, remains without electricity from the power grid. It’s the longest blackout since María. “There are a lot of sick people who are diabetic, and they don’t have electricity to do their diets, so they’re eating whatever they can afford and don’t have to use electricity to eat: fast foods, crackers, bread,” Gutiérrez, 46, said by phone last week. “So there’s a domino effect, and we’re seeing a lot of sick people come into the hospital right now because of it.” Fiona gathered enough strength as it headed north to hit Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, yet the state restored electricity to millions within days. Americans experienced a combined eight hours of power outages throughout all of 2020, and that was by far the highest average since records began seven years earlier. Before Fiona, Gutiérrez and his neighbors might go twice as long without electricity in a single month. And even that quality of service came at a premium: Puerto Ricans pay double the average U.S. electricity rate, even though the mostly Spanish-speaking Caribbean island is poorer than the most impoverished U.S. state. That a private company came into Puerto Rico to sell electricity at all is a consequence of the territory’s painful bankruptcy and debt restructuring, which saw Congress install a financial oversight board with veto power over virtually any major decision from its elected government.
How a transformer shortage threatens the grid - — A high-voltage grid transformer as big as a railroad boxcar sits on the loading dock of a factory here, ready to push power across transmission lines as an indispensable part of the nation’s electric grid. The Virginia Transformer Corp. will ship 550 of these transformers this year and expects to produce 665 next year from its plant here and three other North American facilities. But it is one of only eight companies in the United States able to manufacture the nation’s largest transformers — and deliveries have fallen way behind schedule amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, the United States is undergoing a shortage of a range of transformers — spanning smaller, pole-top units on city streets to Virginia Transformer’s massive units — for reasons that vary depending on the equipment. That means utilities could struggle to add enough new wind and solar generation to meet the country’s net-zero goals and to keep the lights on when storms damage their depleted transformer stockpiles. On Wednesday, public power and cooperative utilities sent a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm emphasizing the crisis and asking the Department of Energy to use funding from the new climate law to boost U.S. production of smaller transformers. Orders for distribution transformers, they said, now take an average of one year or more to arrive. “If we don’t act today, we risk being unable to recover from a storm tomorrow,” wrote the leaders of the American Public Power Association and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. “In the longer term, it could mean being unable to meet the electrification goals envisioned by the Biden administration. In the meantime, the backlog for distribution transformers continues to grow.” DOE did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday.
Coal producers legally must restore damaged land, but some are dodging obligations - A Bloomberg News/NPR investigation found large U.S. coal companies used bankruptcy and asset transfers to move old mines to shaky new owners, putting at risk federally mandated land reclamation. A MARTINEZ, HOST: Over the last decade, the coal industry collapsed, leaving the largest producers bankrupt. This, however, turned out to be an opportunity. Coal companies are legally mandated to restore the torn-up land and polluted creeks left behind when mining is done. But the biggest companies shifted the cleanup to others. An investigation by Bloomberg News and NPR shows that many old coal mines have new owners that are not completing the work, so the pollution and damage that used to be the industry's problem may become the public's. Joining us now are Josh Saul and Zach Mider of Bloomberg and NPR's Dave Mistich. We'll start with you, Josh. This reporting shows that as coal operators went bankrupt, many of them were able to get out of their environmental cleanup responsibilities. Walk us through how this works.
Coal companies use bankruptcy and asset transfers to shed obligations : NPR (audio & transcript) Coal companies shed billions in obligations to workers and the environment. They went on to riches through bankruptcy and asset transfers. AILSA CHANG, HOST: This week we're taking a look at coal company bankruptcies and mine reclamation as part of a joint investigation taken on by reporters from Bloomberg News and NPR. Coal companies have used bankruptcy and asset transfers to shed their obligations to their workers and to the environment. One of these companies is Alpha Metallurgical Resources. NPR's Dave Mistich brings us this look at Alpha and how environmental cleanup is going at sites they used to own and how it's affected the local community.
More flooding forecast for Australian coal sector | Argus Media -- Australia's coal industry is bracing for more wet weather across New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, with flood warnings issued around the key port of Newcastle in NSW. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a flood warning for the Lower Hunter and Wollombi rivers for 21 October into the weekend, as heavy rainfall combines with strong river flows from upstream. Flooding at Maitland in the Lower Hunter in July disrupted deliveries into Newcastle for two weeks and delayed maintenance into September causing further disruptions. Heavy fresh water flows into the Newcastle harbour has also reduced ship movements in the port by reducing buoyancy, meaning that only Panamax vessels can load not Capesize ships. Heavy rainfall is also expected across the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland and in the Hunter valley and Illawarra coal fields in NSW. Most mine sites are also operating with full on-site water storage and saturated ground, making it extremely difficult to drain pits after wet weather.The third La Nina year in a row has disrupted coal shipments, with Newcastle exports tracking 12pc behind 2021 and 16pc behind the 2019 peak during January-September compared with the same period in earlier years.Queensland shipments are also behind, down by 5pc for January-September against the same period in 2021 and 13pc on 2019.Argus last assessed high-grade 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal at $397.90/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from a peak of $444.59/t on 12 September. It assessed lower grade 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal at $152.49/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from $199.12/t on 12 September.It assessed premium hard low-volatile coking coal prices at $285.05/t fob Australia on 17 October, up from $187.35/t on 1 August.
Germany extends lifetime of all 3 remaining nuclear plants - Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday ordered Germany's three remaining nuclear plants to remain in operation until April to fend off a possible energy crunch.There has been disagreement in the governing coalition over the lifespan of nuclear power plnts.However, Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the Green Party on Monday said he accepted the fact that Scholz had overridden others in the Cabinet.The chancellor has asked the Economy, Environment and Finance Ministries to create the legal basis for the plants to remain open. "The legal basis will be created to allow the operation of the nuclear power plants Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland beyond December 31, 2022, until April 15, 2023," Scholz said in a statement.Scholz also requested that the ministries present an "ambitious" law to increase energy efficiency, as well as a binding agreement to phase out coal by 2030.Germany planned to complete a phaseout of nuclear power by the end of 2022, but a energy supply crunch following Russian gas cuts has caused lengthy debate over keeping nuclear power plants at the ready. On Friday, the Greens had agreed to keep two nuclear power plants in southern Germany in reserve until April, but wanted to shut down a third power plant in the northwestern Emsland district by the end of the year. The Free Democrats (FDP) have pushed to keep all three plants open until 2024."It is in the vital interest of our country and its economy that we maintain all our energy production capacities this winter. The chancellor has now created clarity," Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP tweeted Monday.Germany's largest power company, RWE, said after Scholz's announcement that it would immediately begin preparing to extend operations of its Emsland power plant until April 2022.However, Ricarda Lang, Greens co-leader, criticized Scholz's decision, saying that that the Emsland nuclear power plant is "not required for grid stability," and its continued operation would not be necessary.The operator of the Neckarwestheim 2 plant in Baden-Wurttemberg, EnBW, warned that the German government needs to provide a legal framework for extending operations of the nuclear plant "as quickly as possible" or the plant will be shut down as planned at the end of December. E.ON, which operates the Isar 2 plant in the southwestern state of Bavaria, had said in September it would be ready to continue operations after an overhaul of pressure valves.
Japan Considers Extending Its 60-Year Limit On Nuclear Power Plants - Amid an energy crunch that served a severe blow to Japan’s economy, the government in Tokyo is considering extending the lives of the country’s nuclear power plant fleet beyond the maximum current lifespan of 60 years.According to local reports cited by Reuters, the plan is to remove the limits on nuclear power plants’ lifetimes as a whole, which would open the door to serial extensions of these lifetimes. The changes will need to be approved by the Nuclear Regulation Authority.Japan has 33 nuclear reactors, of which four have received approval to operate for a period of 60 years. This represents an extension on their original 40-year lifespans, as stipulated in the current nuclear power regulation that was implemented after the Fukushima tragedy. Currently, the regulations only allow one 20-year extension after the original 40-year period.Nuclear power has been an essential part of Japan’s energy mic because of the country’s resource scarcity, which has made it highly dependent on imported fossil fuels. Yet the Fukushima disaster in 2011 turned public opinion strongly against nuclear and the tide is only now turning again, this time in favor of nuclear.All in all, per information from the IEA, Japan relies on fossil fuels for 88 percent of its primary energy generation, which makes it one of the most fossil fuel-dependent members of the organization.Nevertheless, Japan, like other IEA members, has ambitious net-zero plans for 2050, including a target of 60 percent for non-fossil fuel power generation by 2030. Nuclear is likely to play the star part in this shift given Japan’s physical constraints that prevent it to emulate China, for example, with solar. Indeed, per the government’s plans, nuclear is seen accounting for 20 to 25 percent of total electricity generation in Japan in 2030. That would be down from pre-Fukushima times when nuclear generated about a third of Japan’s electricity, but a lot more than what it generated in 2020, which was about 5 percent of the total.
Utica Shale Academy expanding again – The Utica Shale Academy is expanding again after acquiring the former Huntington Bank building in Salineville. Superintendent Bill Watson said the site at 50 E. Main St., which is only a stone’s throw from the current Hutson Building location, will be utilized for career and workforce development with a classroom, offices and a hands-on work area while the Hutson Building will house the career-tech skills training and online curriculum.“We purchased the building in partnership with Youngstown State University with funds from a $300,000 capital budget bill allocation, thanks to Ohio Sen. Michael Rulli and Rep. Tim Ginter [both R-Salem],” Watson said. “The idea is to utilize it during the day for students and we can open it to businesses and university and work symbiotically. It has been a longtime since the school, businesses and university have collaborated.”He added that the two-story structure was acquired earlier this month and includes between 5,000 to 6,000 feet of room that will lodge robotics in the basement for YSU’s use, plus the bank teller space will be retrofitted to work on equipment such as Kubota Tech Diesel Mechanics Smart Sensors and Programmable Logic Controls (PLC’s) to support the Governor’s 5G Initiative that intends to create thousands of jobs over the next decade.“We have permits for the welding lab and have broken ground, and then it should be completed by November,” he said. “Once we retrofit the garage area, we will update the heat, air conditioning and add bathrooms.”The bank has not operated since around 2020 and the site sat dormant since that time, but USA officials hoped to use the space and expand learning opportunities for students in preparation for the workforce. Watson said they also have been working with the Sustainable Opportunity and Development (SOD) Center in Salem and Ohio Department of Job and Family Services’ Comprehensive Case Management and Employment Program (CCMEP), and USA even provides Mahoning-Columbiana Training Association services for out-of-school youth to assist with training and job placement. About 40 people are presently involved and Watson said several are already employed with Summitville Tile.“Through CCMEP, we provide mentor training and placement in jobs,” he continued. “Right now, we are working on obtaining background checks and we are working with SafeSchools to send them out to the workforce.”
Alleging continual pollution, advocates ask U.S. EPA to take over Ohio injection well permitting - Appalachian Ohio is a primary dumping ground for natural gas fracking waste. Nearly half of it is coming from neighboring states. A battle is underway to try to strip the Ohio Department of Natural Resources from its hold on the permitting process for these injection wells.A coalition of environmental activists and community groups in Southeastern Ohio are calling on the U.S. EPA to take over oil and gas waste injection well permitting from the ODNR, pointing to the millions of barrels of fracking waste being injected into Ohio ground, and continual pollution incidents.“Ohio’s Class II well program contains numerous technical deficiencies that have allowed for underregulated oil and gas waste disposal which has resulted in serious consequences to human health and the environment,” attorneys from EarthJustice, the Sierra Club of Ohio, and various community groups say in their petition to the EPA asking them to begin the rulemaking process to revoke Ohio’s primacy over its Class II program “due to the longstanding and systemic failures.”Horizontal hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is a method of oil-and-gas drilling that produces pressure fractures in rock formations that stimulate the flow of natural gas or oil. Due to big increases in natural gas production from fracking over the last 15 years, Ohio has become a hot spot for both the extraction of gas, and the injection of waste from the process back into the ground. Both are largely taking place in Ohio’s eastern and southeastern counties.Class II wells inject waste fluids that are brought to the surface during the fracking process. In Ohio, the ODNR Department of Mineral Resources Management has been given sole regulatory authority of oil and gas drilling disposal under Ohio Revised Code.As a result of the exponential increase in natural gas production, operators produce billions of tons of waste annually in the United States. In Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, gas production increased from 1.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2008 to nearly 24 billion cubic feet per day in 2017, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Latest Attack from Left on M-U Fracking – Block Ohio Injection Wells | Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s the latest ingenious way radicalized anti-fossil fuelers are attempting to cut off and strangle the Marcellus and Utica shale industry: Deny drillers any kind of means to dispose of the brine (naturally occurring water from the depths) that comes out of the borehole for years after a well is drilled. One of the best, most environmentally safe ways to dispose of brine is via injection wells. Antis are trying to strip Ohio’s right to regulate injection wells in the Buckeye State, hoping if the feds take over, many of those wells would get shut down.
Environmentalists Fear a Massive New Plastics Plant Near Pittsburgh Will Worsen Pollution and Stimulate Fracking - Fifteen years after Pennsylvania’s natural gas industry began to raise worries about air and water pollution, the industry’s critics now fear a new source of harmful emissions from the fledgling petrochemical industry, which is poised to become a major customer for the state’s abundant gas reserves. In a state that has long nurtured the extraction of oil, coal and now gas, environmentalists warn that a vast new Shell plant on the banks of the Ohio River 30 miles north of Pittsburgh will add to air and water problems in a region that has endured decades of pollution from the steel and coal industries. The plant, which is expected to open before the end of 2022, will convert ethane, a form of natural gas, into ethylene, a building block for plastics. The operation will produce millions of tons of tiny plastic pellets called “nurdles” which opponents predict will leak into the Ohio River and beyond during shipment, and will contribute to a flood of plastics that are polluting the world’s oceans and clogging landfills. After being lured to Pennsylvania with the promise of $1.6 billion in state tax credits, and being awarded a state air permit to issue more volatile organic compounds than that emitted by the Clairton Coke Works, a notorious local polluter, the “cracker” plant appears to be getting the same easy ride from state officials as the fracking industry did starting in the mid-2000s, critics say. The Shell plant, in Monaca, will take ethane, a liquid hydrocarbon separated from fracked natural gas, and “crack” its molecules to make ethylene and polyethylene resin pellets called nurdles, which are melted down and turned into all things plastic, from bottles to car parts. “We are seeing a lot of these things repeat themselves with the cracker, and with the specter of petrochemical development in the region,” said Alison Steele, executive director of the Environmental Health Project, a nonprofit that has been monitoring the health impacts of the region’s natural gas industry, and representing affected residents, since 2012. Steele said the new plant has already received favorable treatment from state officials, including Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, and may enjoy the same status as the natural gas industry that supplies it when it begins operating soon. She argued that gas-industry regulations are based not on safety but on what constitutes acceptable risk for operators and state officials. Regulations are often lax, and may not be effectively enforced by officials who focus on the industry’s creation of jobs rather than its threats to public health, she said. “The promise of economic benefits has very often driven the conversation, and caution around health impacts have made less of an appearance or been overshadowed,” she said. Pennsylvania’s fossil fuel industry has long been favored by the Republican-controlled state legislature. In 2012, it passed the wide-ranging Act 13, which curbed local government rights to use zoning to control gas-industry development in their towns, authorized the state to preempt local ordinances, and allowed the industry to prevent the public disclosure of fracking chemicals that were suspected of harming public health. Steele said state policy does not reflect how the oil and gas industry affects public health. “There’s a persistent gap between what’s known and what’s done with that knowledge,” she said. “If there has been a body of scientific evidence, which now there absolutely is, it has not been incorporated into a policy approach.”
Why The U.S.' Largest Shale Gas Basin Misses Out On The LNG Boom - Regulatory hurdles are stymieing growth in natural gas production in the Marcellus-Utica basin, the largest U.S. gas-producing region, which is set to miss out on the expected boom in American liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the coming years. Not only is Marcellus-Utica missing the opportunity to export and monetize natural gas in a world scrambling for LNG supply, but it is also unable to provide more natural gas to the regions close to it in New England, analysts and the pipeline industry say. In one of the most ironic twists in American energy these days, the U.S. Northeast is importing LNG from foreign producers to meet its gas demand. New England’s predicament is the result of the regulatory hurdles the U.S. states in the Northeast have posed to natural gas pipeline infrastructure, the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America says. The association calls for permitting reform and regional support to pipeline companies that are ready to build infrastructure but have seen a lot of projects delayed and tied up in lengthy court battles, which have swelled costs. One such project was the Atlantic Coast project, a pipeline from West Virginia to North Carolina along a route that had to pass through the Appalachian Trail in Virginia. In the summer of 2020, despite a major win on the right-of-way issue at the U.S. Supreme Court, the developers of the pipeline definitely scrapped the project due to ongoing delays and major cost overruns.“This announcement reflects the increasing legal uncertainty that overhangs large-scale energy and industrial infrastructure development in the United States. Until these issues are resolved, the ability to satisfy the country’s energy needs will be significantly challenged,” the top executives of Dominion Energy and Duke Energysaid at the time. Over the past few years, developers haven’t proposed many new gas pipelines in the U.S. Northeast due to permitting issues and bans from states such as New York.The midstream infrastructure capital has shifted from Marcellus-Utica down to the U.S. Gulf Coast, Kevin Little, senior vice president for natural gas at Macquarie Energy, said during Hart Energy’s America’s Natural Gas conference.Projects for LNG exports are now being developed in Texas and Louisiana, and despite the fact that greenfield natural gas projects are tough to develop even in Texas and Louisiana, America’s LNG exports are set to double by 2027, Little said.On the East Coast, the hurdles are greater. “If you have to get an act of Congress to get your permits to build a pipeline, if you’ve got to go to the Supreme Court and you still can’t build a pipeline, this is not a great environment to build midstream infrastructure,” the expert said, as carried by Hart Energy.
EDITORIAL: Pollution subsidized - Republican & Herald, Pottsville, Pa. - Shell Pipeline Co. and a pipeline contractor, Minnesota Limited, have agreed to pay a $670,000 fine for pollution they generated during the construction of the Falcon Pipeline in Western Pennsylvania. The state Department of Environmental Protection conducted 67 inspections of the pipeline when it was under construction and found that sediment and drilling fluids had leaked into the Ambridge Reservoir, Raccoon Creek, the Ohio River and more than a dozen smaller streams. Although the case indicates vigilance by the DEP, it says the opposite about the state Legislature. The Falcon pipeline connects gas processing plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania with the massive Shell petrochemical refinery in Beaver County. The plants separate ethane from other gases and liquids extracted from the Marcellus Shale, and ships the ethane to the petrochemical refinery. The refinery converts the ethane into plastic pellets. Remarkably, while suing the pipeline for environmental violations, the state government also heavily subsidizes the Shell refinery with $1.7 billion in tax credits. Since first awarding the credits a decade ago, the Legislature has gone all in on such subsidies, awarding them for similar but smaller projects around the state, including for a pipeline in Schuylkill County. None of those subsidies are contingent upon environmental compliance. So, for example, the Shell petrochemical refinery's subsidies aren't affected by the related pipeline's fine, which amounts to a miniscule fraction of the public subsidy. Lawmakers should adopt rules that preclude state taxpayers from having to subsidize pollution.
For the first time, natural gas production linked to lower birth weights in a national study – EHN - Across the U.S., birth weights have declined as rates of natural gas production have increased, according to a new, first-of-its-kind national study. While previous studies linked increases in fracking and natural gas production to lower birth weights in high-producing states like Texas and Pennsylvania, this is the first to examine associations across states where extraction occurs.“Those single-state studies are important, but you have to consider whether that information is generalizable to other parts of the country,” Summer Sherburne Hawkins, an associate professor at the Boston College School of Social Work and senior author of the study, told EHN. “With our study, we’re able to say that this is not unique to a specific state, but is true across the country.”The study, published in the journal Preventive Medicine Reports, found that every 10% increase in natural gas development in U.S. counties is associated with a corresponding decrease in average birth weight of 1.48 grams, or 0.003 pounds. Among women of color, the impact was more significant: With every 10% increase in natural gas production, Asian babies’ average birth weight decreased by 2.76 grams, or 0.006 pounds; and Black babies’ average birth weight decreased by 10.19 grams, or 0.02 pounds.“That might not seem like a lot, but in some parts of the U.S. rates of natural gas production are increasing by thousands of percentage points over a very short period of time,” Hawkins said. “Lots of states are considering increasing production and this research allows us to predict the potential implications for public health.”Low birth weight is associated with higher rates of infant mortality, poor lung development, problems with growth and cognitive development, and increased risk of health problems later in life, including diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure and developmental disabilities.
US oil and gas M&A hits 2022 high in third quarter — on only a handful of deals - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the US oil and gas sector hit its highest levels of 2022 in the third quarter, despite an increasingly difficult environment for transactions. A new report from Enverus Intelligence Research said M&A activity surpassed $16 billion in the third quarter, even though the vast majority of capital spent was in a handful of transactions. Nearly $13.9 billion of the total came in just five deals — and none of them was in the Permian basin, normally the most heavily transacted of all US oil and gas regions. EQT’s $5.2 billion acquisition of producer Tug Hill and associated XcL Midstream in Appalachia was the largest oil and gas transaction in the US during the third quarter.
Zeldin’s support for fracking would unlock jobs and energy security for New York . . . forget about it under Hochul - New York’s gubernatorial race is tightening, and when you look at the issues that affect people’s day-to-day lives, it’s not surprising a Quinnipiac University survey shows Republican Lee Zeldin surging in this bluest of blue states. Crime and jobs: “Am I safe?” and “Can I feed my family?” As New York brings these worries to the ballot box, its recent history tells a clear story: The state is dying a slow, blue death with elected officials ignoring the need for real job opportunities coupled with their blasé approach to violent crime. New York City has lost 336,000 people in the past two years, and during the last Census period from 2010 to 2020, 70% of upstate towns declined in population. Far be it from me to provide advice to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s team, but if she wants to win, she needs a playbook. When it comes to crime: Look at the Giuliani model. New Yorkers remember feeling safe, and they want to again. When it comes to jobs, look at the Pennsylvania model: And by that, I mean oil and gas jobs and fracking. Fracking: that scary word that, when uttered three times in a mirror, may conjure up Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spinning exaggerated tales of climate-change death. Eco-leftists often declare that “whole communities” are suffering from fracking, yet they’re unable to name one.
New England Risks Winter Blackouts as Gas Supplies Tighten – WSJ -- New England power producers are preparing for potential strain on the grid this winter as a surge in natural-gas demand abroad threatens to reduce supplies they need to generate electricity. New England, which relies on natural-gas imports to bridge winter supply gaps, is now competing with European countries for shipments of liquefied natural gas, following Russia’s halt of most pipeline gas to the continent. Severe cold spells in the Northeast could reduce the amount of gas available to generate electricity as more of it is burned to heat homes. The region’s power-grid operator, ISO New England Inc., has warned that an extremely cold winter could strain the reliability of the grid and potentially result in the need for rolling blackouts to keep electricity supply and demand in balance. The warning comes as executives and analysts predict power producers could have to pay as much as several times more than last year for gas deliveries if severe weather creates urgent need for spot-market purchases. “The most challenging aspect of this winter is what’s happening around the world and the extreme volatility in the markets,” said Vamsi Chadalavada, the grid operator’s chief operating officer. “If you are in the commercial sector, at what point do you buy fuel?” Power producers in New England are limited in their ability to store fuel on site and face challenges in contracting for gas supplies, as most pipeline capacity is reserved by gas utilities serving homes and businesses. Most generators tend to procure only a portion of imports with fixed-price agreements and instead rely on the spot market, where gas prices have been volatile, to fill shortfalls. The New England ISO expects that the grid can weather a mild-to-moderate winter without significant reliability challenges. However, it has warned that electricity demand could threaten to surge beyond available supply after multiple sustained periods of severely cold weather, which would result in calls for conservation similar to those issued in California in September during a regionwide heat wave.
New York, New England Ration Heating Oil Even Before Peak Winter - -- The US Northeast is so short on heating oil that the fuel used to power home furnaces is being rationed even before the start of winter.Some wholesalers in Connecticut are putting retailers on allocation, meaning they can only get a limited amount of fuel based on availability, according to Chris Herb, president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, which represents around 600 family-owned retailers in the state. These retailers must in turn ration their customers.The measure, designed to prevent panic buying, highlights the extreme fuel tightness across the New York Harbor and New England regions that has attracted the attention of the White House. National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told Bloomberg Television earlier this week that diesel inventories are “unacceptably low” and “all options are on the table” to bulk up supply and cut costs to consumers. In New England, where more people burn diesel -- the same product as heating oil -- to warm their homes than anywhere else in the country, stockpiles are a third of typical levels for this time of year, government data show.A main hurdle to replenishing regional fuel supplies has been a steep, sustained backwardation in the diesel market. Backwardation happens when prompt deliveries are priced at a premium over deliveries in the future, which in effect causes product to lose value over time. “There’s just no incentive to store large amount of product,” said Michael Ferrante, president of the Massachusetts Energy Marketers Association.In addition to the scarcity, there’s also the cost. Wholesale heating oil in New York Harbor averaged $4.09 a gallon on Thursday, compared with $2.46 at the same time a year ago, according to data from price reporting agency Argus Media. For the wholesaler, that means it costs about $1,125 to fill up a 275-gallon heating oil tank, the typical size used in many homes. But consumers will pay well over that figure after markups by the wholesaler and retailer. Many people are “in shock” when they hear the price to fill up their heating oil tanks, said Sam Livieri, vice president of Apple Oil, a heating oil supplier in the New Haven, Connecticut area. Many of his customers are opting for partial fills and some say they’re not planning to turn on the heat until they absolutely have to. The pain is real for retailers as well. Some retailers, who pay this wholesale price, are unable to source as much fuel as previous years because their credit lines are strained and they’re under financial stress, Herb said.
Extreme Cold May Trigger Power Blackouts Across New England - Last month we informed readers, "New England's Power Crisis Set To Return." Fast forward to today, as US Northeast temperatures steadily decline as heating demand increases, New England power producers warn grid strains are inevitable as natural gas supplies tighten.New England consists of six states in the US Northeast, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The region faces a power crisis every winter because its power grid relies on NatGas and lacks pipeline infrastructure for domestic flows. Over the years, NatGas pipeline infrastructure has been delayed, blocked, or abandoned, which means the region's power-grid operators have to compete in international markets for supplies. WSJ reported that power-grid operator, ISO New England Inc., warned a colder-than-normal winter "could strain the reliability of the grid and potentially result in the need for rolling blackouts to keep electricity supply and demand in balance." ISO New England's top executives said if power producers have to increase NatGas deliveries due to severe weather drawing down supplies, it would indicate they would be paying international spot-market purchases. "The most challenging aspect of this winter is what's happening around the world and the extreme volatility in the markets," said Vamsi Chadalavada, the grid operator's chief operating officer. "If you are in the commercial sector, at what point do you buy fuel?"One major problem is that power producers have limited NatGas storage facilities and lack pipeline capacity reserved mainly by utilities serving homes and businesses. Power producers procure a portion of supplies with fixed-price agreements and mostly rely on spot markets. "Anybody who is depending on the spot market for their natural-gas supply is probably going to have a pretty significant sticker shock," said Tanya Bodell, a partner at consulting firm StoneTurn who advises energy companies in New England.We pointed out last year, "New England Is An Energy Crisis Waiting To Happen," and the worsening supply woes in Europe and the world means NatGas spot markets will be elevated through the cold season. New England had the bright idea to decommission coal, oil, and nuclear generators, leaving the grid exposed to NatGas. New England ISO figures show about 5,200 megawatts of that capacity have retired in the last decade. The region's power mix changes have left it increasingly reliant on international NatGas spot markets. State governors have asked US Energy Secretary Jennifer Graholm to waive the Jones Act and allow foreign-owned tankers to ship LNG from the US Gulf region. All of this has led to New England residents facing some of the highest electricity bills in years. Heating season is already underway.
FERC meeting: Glick warning, 'self-dealing' and pipeline win - Consumers are going to “suffer” this winter as energy costs continue to climb, the head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said Thursday. Driving the spike in energy costs are high fuel prices worldwide and relatively low growth in natural gas production in the U.S., among other factors, according to FERC staff. One major natural gas price benchmark — the Henry Hub — is currently 30 percent higher than what it was last winter. In the coming months, FERC must be vigilant in ensuring that energy companies don’t take advantage of the situation by manipulating energy and power markets, Chair Richard Glick said. “People are going to suffer, whether it be folks that are using natural gas for heating, or on the electricity side, because we know natural gas prices have a significant upward pressure on electricity prices,” said Glick, a Democrat. Glick spoke on the issue at the commission’s monthly meeting, where FERC staff presented an annual winter energy assessment for the U.S. The five-person commission also issued a permit for a contested natural gas pipeline in Kentucky and Indiana and announced a policy that Glick said could help prevent “self-dealing” among utilities and other companies with corporate ties. Glick’s comments on power and fuel prices came as President Joe Biden is also seeking to lower energy costs ahead of the midterm elections. Earlier this week, the administration said it would release an additional 15 million barrels of oil from the country’s emergency reserves to try to bring down energy prices (Energywire, Oct. 19). All regions of the U.S. appear to have enough generation resources to meet electricity demand this winter, barring a prolonged period of extreme cold, FERC staff said. Most of the country is forecast to experience a mild winter, with the exception of the Northwest and Northern Plains. Still, the agency is projecting that “supply issues” could pose energy challenges for several regions. Specifically, New England’s supply of natural gas remains constrained, as has been the case in past winters. “Ongoing rail service issues” have the potential to disrupt shipments of coal in several U.S. regions, FERC staff said in the report. Labor supply challenges and the closure of coal mines are putting additional pressure on coal resources, the report continued. This year, coal plants made up the majority of generation retirements, as has been the case for several years now, according to FERC’s findings. At the same time, between March of this year and next February, the U.S. is expected to add nearly three times more new energy capacity than the amount that will retire during the same period. The vast majority of the new resources are solar and wind projects. Commissioner Mark Christie said he was concerned that “dispatchable” generation — such as coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants — were retiring too soon without enough new generation to replace it. Not only are coal retirements leading to a reliability problem, but they’re also putting upward pressure on natural gas prices, since natural gas power plants are the most viable replacement for coal, said Christie, a Republican. “This is an issue that’s going to continue — it’s not going away,” Christie said.
New Jersey sues oil companies for deceiving the public about climate change – WHYY - New Jersey filed a lawsuit against five oil companies and a trade organization, saying the companies knowingly deceived the public about their contributions to global warming. New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin said internal industry documents show Exxon Mobil, Shell Oil, Chevron, BP, and ConocoPhillips all hid their knowledge that burning fossil fuels contributes to climate change. “Based on their own research, these companies understood decades ago that their products were causing climate change and would have devastating environmental impacts down the road,” said Platkin in a statement. “It’s long overdue that the facts be aired in a New Jersey court, and the perpetrators of the disinformation campaign pay for the harms they’ve caused.” The lawsuit alleges the trade group, American Petroleum Institute, designed public relations campaigns aimed at convincing the public that climate change does not exist and creating confusion and doubt about the role of oil and gas. New Jersey says this drove continued fossil fuel use that has already devastated the state’s coastal communities with rising seas and increasingly severe storms, along with extreme heat. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, and the Division of Consumer Affairs joined the Attorney General’s office in filing the complaint in Superior Court in Mercer County. “Our shore communities have had to rebuild boardwalk landmarks, construct large dunes and devise other engineering solutions to recover from and respond to devastating storms,” said Cari Fais, acting director of the Division of Consumer Affairs.
Big Oil makes new bid for Supreme Court climate showdown - Lawyers for the oil and gas industry are asking the Supreme Court for help in a second climate liability lawsuit, arguing that without the justices’ intervention, U.S. energy policy “may be decided by juries in state courts.” Attorneys for Chevron Corp., BP PLC and Exxon Mobil Corp. on Friday petitioned the justices to overturn a lower court decision that delivered a procedural victory to the city of Baltimore, which is suing the companies to pay potentially hundreds of billions of dollars for spewing emissions that have led to flooding, erosion and other climate impacts (Climatewire, April 8).The companies’ plea marks the second such request from the oil industry in recent months, and — if the case becomes one of the tiny few that the justices grant — it would provide the Supreme Court a second shot at a jurisdictional question that for years has stymied Baltimore’s climate liability lawsuit and nearly two dozen others like it.In response to a related Supreme Court petition stemming from a similar lawsuit from Colorado governments, the justices on Oct. 3 invited the Biden administration to share its views on whether climate liability lawsuits belong in the state courts where they were originally filed or in federal courts, where oil and gas companies believe they are more likely to prevail (Greenwire, Oct 3).Companies involved in BP v. Baltimore asked that the Supreme Court hold on to their petition pending a ruling in the Colorado case, Suncor Energy Inc. v. Boulder County, which involves a court decision that sided with several Centennial State governments (Climatewire, June 9).The justices are expected to decide whether to accept or reject the Boulder petition after the Biden administration weighs in. It takes the vote of four justices to grant a petition, and most requests are denied.In the Baltimore petition, oil industry attorneys noted that before President Joe Biden took office, the federal government “expressed the view that climate change claims similar to those alleged here are removable” to federal court “because they are inherently and necessarily federal in nature.” They referred to the Trump administration’s stance on the jurisdictional dispute. The Biden administration has yet to give its opinion, although the president promised during his campaign to support the climate litigation (Climatewire, Jan. 19). Local governments from Rhode Island to Hawaii are suing the oil and gas industry, claiming companies deceived consumers by lying about the effects of burning fossil fuels.The payout from the legal actions is potentially huge — if the municipal challengers can move the litigation past the question of whether the claims should be heard in state or federal court. Baltimore originally filed its climate liability lawsuit in 2018.The procedural issue in the climate cases has reached the Supreme Court once before, with the justices siding with industry in their 2021 ruling in BP v. Baltimore that said appellate judges must consider a wider range of arguments in favor of federal jurisdiction (Climatewire, May 18, 2021).A new string of losses for the companies at the federal level has prompted their requests for a second round of intervention by the high court.
Haynesville Continues to Pace Natural Gas Production Growth in Latest EIA Modeling - Driven by the Haynesville Shale and the Permian Basin, natural gas production from seven key Lower 48 plays is set to surge 554 MMcf/d from October to November to more than 95 Bcf/d, according to updated modeling from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), published Monday, EIA said it expects Haynesville natural gas production to reach 16.078 Bcf/d in November, a 200 MMcf/d month/month increase. Permian natural gas output is expected to climb 127 MMcf/d to 21.057 Bcf/d over the same period. The DPR also tracks changes in the Anadarko and Appalachian basins, as well as in the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara shales. Among those other regions, notable natural gas production increases are also expected from the Eagle Ford (91 MMcf/d) and Appalachia (89 MMcf/d) between October and November, with smaller gains expected from the Bakken (33 MMcf/d), Niobrara (13 MMcf/d) and Anadarko (1 MMcf/d), the DPR data show. The latest DPR models a combined 104,000 b/d of oil production growth among the seven regions from October to November, with output projected to rise to 9.105 million b/d. EIA modeled the largest month/month gains from the Permian (50,000 b/d), Bakken (22,000 b/d) and Eagle Ford (18,000 b/d) regions. The Anadarko (6,000 b/d), Niobrara (6,000 b/d) and Appalachia (2,000 b/d) regions are also expected to raise oil output during the period, according to EIA. EIA’s tally of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells among the seven regions declined 10 units overall to 4,333 from August to September, the latest DPR data show. DUC totals decreased in the Permian (down 14), Appalachia (down 10), Anadarko (down eight), Eagle Ford (down three) and Bakken (down one) regions. On the other side of the ledger, the Niobrara (up 15) and Haynesville (up 11) regions added to their respective DUC backlogs, according to EIA. EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.
Sempra Infrastructure gets extension to build Texas Port Arthur LNG export plant - The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has approved a request from Sempra Infrastructure for an extension to complete construction of a Port Arthur, Texas, liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant and pipelines. The extension gives the company more than an extra four years, moving the deadline from April 2024 to June 2028.When FERC originally approved construction of the plant in April 2019, the company had five years to complete the project. However, filing its request for an extension in July this year, the company noted that pandemic impacts, including adverse market conditions and supply chain issues, had caused construction delays.After the drop in demand for LNG during the pandemic, demand has risen this year, largely because Europe is looking to replace Russian fuel that it cut off after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Indigenous Leaders in Texas Target Global Banks to Keep LNG Export Off of Sacred Land at the Port of Brownsville - When Juan Mancias was a child, his grandmother told him the story her parents told her, of the place at the Great River’s end. All good things ended up there, she said, carried from the high deserts across 1,000 miles to the sea, where they spilled across a vast delta, teeming with life. There, Mancias’ grandmother told him, the first woman was born from all the good things that washed down the river. And there, more than 60 years later, developers now want to build two export terminals, one priced at over $15 billion, to sell fracked Texas gas on international markets. Mancias, chairman of the Carrizo Comecrudo tribe, has spent his last year engaged in a global campaign to thwart the liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities proposed for his people’s sacred site. Supported by the Sierra Club, a coalition of Indigenous leaders and local organizers have traveled Europe lobbying customers and funders that developers need for their buildout in the Rio Grande Valley, a historically marginalized zone along the Mexican border in Texas. It’s not just a legendary paradise for Mancias’ people, it also holds the remains of an ancient village, Garcia Pasture, dubbed by the World Monuments Funds as “one of America’s premier archaeological sites.”“When you steal the land, you’re stealing us. And you’re taking away our identity, because you fence it off and you dont allow us into the land where our ancestors are buried, where we remember our ceremonies and rituals,” said Mancias, 68.Since the fracking boom, developers of Texas shale gas have eyed undeveloped patches along the Gulf Coast for massive terminals to liquify and export the gas on ocean-going tankers. The campaign has managed for years to thwart financing agreements, dissuade committed customers, cause one terminals’ cancellation and years of delays on the remaining two. The Covid slump in energy prices helped their case. But the war in Ukraine has energized markets again, and empowered projects’ search for funders. “The situation in Ukraine is the latest attempt by investors to justify LNG export terminals that are unnecessary, uneconomic, and unwanted,” said a new report by the Sierra Club’s Lower Rio Grande Valley Group, released on Tuesday. “Even as banks pledged to align their lending and investment with a low carbon future, they continue to finance fracked gas around the world.”The International Energy Agency has said that new investments in fossil fuels must end immediately for the world to meet its goals on carbon emissions reductions. According to the new Sierra Club report, the gas pipeline and two export terminals proposed for the Rio Grande delta would produce as much carbon as 40.4 million cars per year. Two export terminals are currently proposed in adjacent green lots in Cameron County at the Port of Brownsville, which doesn’t currently have a petroleum sector (but has hosted Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starbase since about 2015): Rio Grande LNG, owned by Houston-based NextDecade and priced at $15.6 billion; and Texas LNG, owned by Houston-based Glenfarne Group. Both were initially slated to begin operations next year, but both are still seeking financing to begin construction and remain years away from completion. NextDecade, owner of Rio Grande LNG, did not respond to a request for comment sent Friday. The company has said the Rio Grande facility would produce “a lower carbon intensive” liquified natural gas through a combination of carbon capture technology, net-zero electricity and “responsibly sourced gas.”
U.S. natgas futures drop 7% to 3-month low on milder forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 7% to a three-month low on Monday with a collapse in European forwards and on forecasts for milder U.S. weather and lower demand next week than previously expected. "Gas market bears have multiple price-setting mechanisms to drive prices lower. The two biggest influencers continue to revolve around record-high dry gas production and recently lacking temperature demand, resulting in several back-to-back triple-digit weekly gas storage builds," analysts said. U.S. gas futures have already been declining for the past eight weeks on record output and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports that have allowed utilities to inject much bigger than normal amounts of gas into storage over the past month. Major LNG outages include Berkshire Hathaway Energy's shutdown of its 0.8-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for about three weeks of planned maintenance on Oct. 1 and the continuing shutdown of Freeport LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Texas for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. Freeport expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. There are at least three vessels currently heading to Freeport, according to Refinitiv data, including Prism Brilliance (expected to arrive Oct. 18), Prism Diversity (Oct. 27) and Seapeak Methane (Nov. 22), prompting some traders to believe Freeport will return in November. U.S. LNG exports could start to rise later this week if Cove Point returns to service as some traders expect. Front-month gas futures for November delivery fell 45.4 cents, or 7.0%, to settle at $5.999 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), lowest close since July 6. That was the biggest daily percentage drop since Sept. 22 when prices fell about 9%. In a bet on colder weather in December, the premium of futures for December 2022 over November 2022 NGX22-Z22 jumped to record high of around 48 cents per mmBtu. Despite weeks of declines, U.S. futures were still up about 61% so far this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $38 per mmBtu in Europe and $31 in Asia. That puts European forwards down about 8% for the day and on track for their lowest close since June 16 as strong LNG imports boosted the amount of gas in storage in Northwest Europe to healthy levels above 90% of capacity. European prices hit an all-time high of $90.91 on Aug. 25. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.0 bcfd so far in October from 11.5 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.
With Demand Disappointing, Natural Gas Futures Prices Tumble Further - In another stunning move, natural gas futures plummeted further on Tuesday as the current cold snap hitting the Lower 48 – expected to dissipate by week’s end – appears to be falling short in drumming up demand. Traders also brushed off a huge decline in natural gas production given most of it was tied to maintenance work. The November Nymex futures contract settled at $5.745/MMBtu, down 25.4 cents day/day and bringing the two-day loss to 70.8 cents. Spot natural gas prices were mostly higher with another couple of days of chilly weather in the forecast. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. tacked on 14.5 cents to $5.745. Funny how weather dominates natural gas trading even when there is little to speak of. While heavy snow arrived in the Windy City on Monday and was set to pile up in the Northeast beginning Tuesday, market observers said demand thus far is falling short of expectations. “I thought we would see some improvement as these first ‘real’ heating degree days hit, but, so far, the scrapes still look pretty weak,” Vortex Commodities CEO Brian Lovern told NGI. The underwhelming gas demand comes as temperatures on Tuesday morning dipped into the single digits in parts of Minnesota and North Dakota and in the low double-digits in other areas of the Midwest. Combined with gusty winds, AccuWeather said real-feel temperatures slid a few degrees below zero. Farther east, some snowflakes were spotted as early as Monday night in the eastern Great Lakes region and the central Appalachians, with larger amounts expected on Tuesday. However, several areas were not expected to see temperatures fall below the freezing mark, according to AccuWeather. That said, New York City and many other locations are likely to experience their lowest temperatures since late April or earlier in the spring, AccuWeather said. As the cold air shifts eastward, another step down in temperature is in store by Wednesday morning. Some of the lowest temperatures of the cold outbreak are expected to occur on Wednesday and Thursday night, according to the forecaster. A clear sky and a decrease in winds after sunset should allow temperatures to plummet outside of the major East Coast cities. Widespread lows in the 20s to lower 30s are in store for the interior Valleys, with near-freezing temperatures over the ridges. Temperatures are expected to begin climbing by the end of the week, though, quickly sapping demand in the process. The high in Chicago could reach a balmy 70 by Friday, while New York City should reach the upper 60s by Saturday. “The weather pattern looks quite tame in the medium range, as well, which is not helping any bull case, so here we are in the $5.70s,”
Nymex Natural Gas Futures Curve Disintegrates on Moderate Weather, Rising Storage Trajectory Natural gas bears extended their streak to four on Wednesday, slashing futures prices even further amid renewed disagreement in the models regarding a late-October weather system as well as lofty production. The November Nymex gas futures contract settled at $5.462/MMBtu, down 28.3 cents on the day. Notably, steep double-digit losses extended through all of 2023.Spot gas prices were sharply lower across the board as this week’s cold snap was seen thawing shortly. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. plummeted 53.5 cents to $5.210.That futures prices have declined for four straight sessions is significant given much of the United States is in the middle of a cold snap that’s brought temperatures below freezing and led to heavy snowfall in some areas. Even Houston woke up to 40-degree lows on Wednesday morning.Still, with the current chill expected to moderate beginning Friday, and production holding near recent highs despite fall season maintenance activities, traders saw no reason for a recovery. If anything, the next round of government inventory data may send prices down another few notches if the injection comes in near expectations.Interestingly, the November contract was trading not far from Wednesday’s levels a year ago. Only at that time, prices were in the early stages of a sustained rally that eventually lifted futures to $10 in August.This time around, there’s not much in the near-term outlook for bulls to hang their hat on.After a string of four triple-digit builds, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is poised to report another 100-plus Bcf addition to inventories. Ahead of the EIA report, scheduled to be released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, analyst estimates ranged widely amid robust production and stronger wind generation during the reference period ending Oct. 14. Reuters polled 13 analysts, whose estimates ranged from injections of 95 Bcf to 118 Bcf, with a median forecast of 106 Bcf. Both Bloomberg and theWall Street Journal had a tighter range of projections, with a median injection of 103 Bcf and an average injection of 102 Bcf, respectively.A build near these levels would easily surpass the 91 Bcf injection recorded in the year-earlier period, as well as the five-year average of 73 Bcf.Meanwhile, weather forecasts pointed to moderate weather ahead that could further pad stocks. Maxar’s Weather Desk said the six- to 10-day outlook leans slightly cooler in the central United States and in the West, while warmer in the eastern half through day nine. However, cooler air could arrive in the Midcontinent in the middle of the period. “The models diverge for how much cooling may occur for then, lending lower confidence,”
U.S. natgas edges up but still near 7-month low after big storage build (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures inched up in choppy trade on Thursday, hovering near their lowest since March, after a mixed reaction to a federal report showing a larger-than-expected storage increase last week, with investors also assessing upcoming seasonal demand. Front-month gas futures NGc1 edged up 2.9 cents, or 0.5%, to $5.49 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 11:38 a.m. EDT (1538 GMT), after sliding to $5.253 per mmBtu. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 111 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 14, more than the 105 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and substantially more than the year-ago weekly build of 91 bcf and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 73 bcf. It was also the fifth week in a row that stockpiles increased by over 100 bcf. "There's been so much selling pressure over the last week or so that we were bound to see some (short) covering at some point," but there’s time for the market to react further this session. Looking toward November, "if we don't see a bullish weather pattern start to set up for the early start of winter, that could result in additional price volatility because we'll see selling subsequently," DiDona said. U.S. gas futures remain up about 42% this year as soaring global gas prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $34 per mmBtu in Europe and $30 in Asia. The market "is getting extremely over-sold and even though we've seen some sizable injections, supplies are still too low going into winter and if the weather changes, if we get some cold weather as some people are predicting in November or December, the market could change," Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.5 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 100.6 bcfd this week to 95.5 bcfd next week.
U.S. natgas slumps to 7-month low as losses extend into a ninth week (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped 7% on Friday to a seven-month low after falling for nine weeks in a row in a move that could help cut U.S. consumer heating costs this winter. Prices have been falling for weeks due to forecasts for mild weather, record output and low liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports that have allowed utilities to inject more gas into storage than usual ahead of winter. Gas prices have plunged about 59% during the past nine weeks. "Gas production has been strong and the ongoing shutdown of the Freeport LNG plant has allowed for a big comeback in storage. It was not too long ago that some folks were worried about whether we would have enough gas in storage for this winter," Freeport LNG in Texas shut for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. Front-month gas futures fell 39.9 cents, or 7.4%, to settle at $4.959 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since March 21. That also put the front-month down for a sixth day in a row for the first time since February 2021 and kept it in technically oversold territory. For the week, the contract dropped about 23%, its biggest weekly decline since falling 24% in December 2021. Despite weeks of losses, U.S. gas futures were still up about 33% so far this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. The drop in gas prices should help reduce U.S. costs this winter for the 60 million homes that use gas for heat. Lower gas costs should also help reduce costs for the 54 million homes that use electricity for heat since about 38% of the nation's power comes from burning natural gas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected homes burning gas for heat would spend about 29% more this winter than last year, while homes using electric for heat would spend about 10% more. About 88% of the nation's 130 million homes use either gas or electricity for heat. Gas was trading at $33 per mmBtu in Europe and $32 in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.5 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 100.1 bcfd this week to 94.2 bcfd next week with the coming of milder weather, before rising to 96.9 bcfd in two weeks as the weather cools. The forecast for this week and next were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.
Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford To Set "Recent" Production Records In November -- Doesn't Get Me Excited -- October 17, 2022 - From SeekingAlpha today:
- oil production in the Permian Basin is forecast to rise by ~50K bbl/day to a record 5.45M bbl/day in November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Monday in its latest productivity report.
- total U.S. crude oil output is expected to increase by 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November, its highest since March 2020, the EIA report said.
- the EIA also sees oil output in the Bakken shale rising by 22K bbl/day to 1.19M bbl/day next month, the most since December 2020, and
- in the Eagle Ford shale adding 18K bbl/day to 1.22M bbl/day, its highest since April 2020.
- with oil "on the verge of exploding higher," Chevron (CVX) and Devon Energy (DVN) are two "top-tier picks," Leo Nelissen writes in an analysis published recently on Seeking Alpha.
"Exploding higher": I believe the analyst is talking about the price of oil "exploding higher," not that production would surge. Let's do the percentage change:
- 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November:
- 104,000 / 9,000,000 = 104 / 9,000 = 1% -- doesn't get me excited
- 22,000 / 1,000,000 = 22 / 1,000 = 2% -- doesn't get me excited
- that 104,000 bopd -- compare that to the Biden administration releasing 10x that amount the past six months, one million bopd released
US to announce release of 15M barrels of oil from strategic reserve -The U.S. will release 15 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserve, Biden administration officials plan to announce Wednesday.The 15 million barrels are the final tranche of a disbursement of 180 million announced in March and come as energy prices threaten to rise again less than a month before Election Day.Rising prices have emerged as a drag on Democrats as polls show the economy is one of the issues most top of mind for voters as they head to the ballot box. Early voting began in some states this week.The sale comes after OPEC+ announced a production cut of 2 million barrels of oil per day earlier in October. Oil prices had dipped as low as $75 per barrel in September before rebounding after the OPEC announcement to more than $90. West Texas Intermediate crude is now at $83 per barrel.Asked about the possibility of limiting oil exports, officials also said they’re keeping “all tools on the table.”The U.S. oil reserve is now at its lowest level since the mid-1980s, and senior administration officials announced Tuesday evening a plan to buy back crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, sending a market signal to producers to keep pumping oil ahead of the midterm elections in November.Officials said repurchases would begin when prices are between $67 and $72 per barrel, indicating that the administration would like to see the price of oil decline. Presiden Biden wants the energy sector to “take the signal and increase production” and to make sure that they are giving “the consumer the appropriate price” as they are “taking these profits,” one senior administration official said.“The profit that energy refining companies are now capturing on every gallon of gasoline is about double what it typically is at this time of year, and the retailer margin over the refinery price is more than 40 percent above the typical level,” administration officials said in a statement. “These outsized industry profit margins – adding more than $0.60 to the average price of a gallon of gas – have kept pump prices higher than they should be. Keeping prices high even as input costs fall is unacceptable, and the President will call on companies to pass their savings through to consumers – now,” the statement continued.The Department of Energy will also institute a rule that allows it to enter fixed-price contracts through competitive bids for crude oil products to be delivered at futures dates.Geopolitical forces are bearing down on energy markets now as the Northern Hemisphere prepares for winter.The war in Ukraine is playing out in the European energy supply, which has been heavily dependent on Russian gas exports in the past. Reports of pipeline sabotage came in over the summer as fighting intensified between Russia and Ukraine.OPEC’s production cut resulted in accusations against its most influential member, Saudi Arabia, that it was siding with Russia in the war. Chinese demand for imported also may also be ramping up as the country continues to lift various COVID-19 restrictions.
Biden Admin To Announce Another 15 Million Barrel SPR Release Before Midterms - Oil markets are drifting sideways this morning after the Biden administration plans to release 10-15 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a bid to suppress gasoline and diesel prices at the pump ahead of the next month's congressional elections, Bloomberg said citing people familiar with the matter. President Biden's upcoming announcement of up to 15 million barrels, one of the largest ever, comes as 180 million barrels have been drained from the nation's emergency stockpile since May. For context, the Biden administration has cut the SPR to a record low 22 days worth of supply... That is not what you want to see when liberal war hawks are gunning for nuclear war. On Sunday, White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein said Biden was still mulling over the final SPR release figures. He told Fox News the reserve is 50% full. "The fact is there is capacity to use the SPR to deal with some of the energy shocks we're seeing in the world. But I'm not saying we will. That's up to the president to decide, he hasn't made that decision yet," Bernstein said. Last Tuesday, David Turk, the Energy Department's deputy secretary, said, "We still have some additional ability to use the SPR over the coming weeks and months as needed." Turk said the administration was willing to move forward with an export ban on refined products in response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production.But while the Biden admin was reluctant to pursue an export ban, a move that would send oil prices higher over the long run, it had fewer qualms about potentially extending its SPR drain.Sources told Bloomberg White House officials have been discussing with oil companies, including ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp., about what to expect in future SPR releases while encouraging crude production and boosting the capacity of refined fuels. The US' only problem is that refining capacity has been reduced over the years, and also, there's seasonal maintenance underway. We outlined in the summer: US Refining Bottleneck The Culprit For Your Gas Pump Pains."The administration has a small window ahead of midterms to try to lower fuel prices, or at least demonstrate that they are trying," one of Reuters' sources familiar with the White House deliberations. "The White House did not like $4 a gallon gas, and it has signaled that it will take action to prevent that again," they said.
US to complete 180-million barrel SPR drawdown, lay out plan to replenish oil reserve | S&P Global Commodity Insights - The US Department of Energy will issue a notice to sell up to 15 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Oct. 19, completing the largest-ever drawdown from the emergency stockpile, and finalize a plan to giving it more buying power to replenish the SPR in the future, senior Biden administration officials said Oct. 18.The DOE is offering up to 3 million barrels of sour crude and up to 12 million barrels of sweet crude from Big Hill and Bryan Mound in Texas and West Hackberry in Louisiana for delivery in December. Bids are due by 10 am CT Oct. 25, and contracts will be awarded no later than Nov. 1, the department said in a press release.The sale wraps up President Joe Biden's historic commitment to release 180 million barrels, or roughly 1 million b/d, from the SPR from April through the end of October. Some 165 million barrels of crude have already been delivered or committed for delivery under the release to help mitigate global supply disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and help lower energy costs.Oil futures climbed following the announcement of the release, with NYMEX front-month crude trading $1.18 higher at $84.00/b late Oct. 18. NYMEX crude had settled down $2.64 at $82.82/b prior to the announcement, in part on expectations that an SPR release was in the works. "How effective the SPR release will be may well depend on whether other [countries] join as we saw earlier this year ... At the time, oil was trading at much higher levels, well above $100/b," "At current prices, the average driver will spend about $60 per month less than they would have if [gasoline] prices had stayed at that peak level," a senior administration official said on a call with reporters Oct. 18. Biden is expected Oct. 19 to also reiterate his call for the oil industry to do its part to address the pain at the pump exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war."The profits that energy refining companies are now capturing on every gallon of gas is about double what it typically is at this time of year, and reseller margins over the refinery price are more than 40% above typical level," the administration official said, contending that these record profits have kept pump prices higher than they should be as oil prices have come down."Tomorrow the president will reiterate that outsized profit margins are inappropriate, especially at a time of war, and will call on companies to pass their savings through to consumers," the official said. The DOE will also formally announce Oct. 19 "its intent to do the SPR repurchases to add to global crude oil demand at times when WTI crude oil is at or below $67/b-$72/b" in order to protect taxpayer interests and encourage more near-term production, a second senior administration official said."We think that's an important signal for producers that the SPR will be part of helping to moderate and stabilize price flows not only when prices are going high but when prices are going low, and using the SPR in that responsible manner," the second official said. The Biden administration also took steps to ease efforts to refill the emergency oil stockpile, with plans to allow fixed-price forward purchases of crude oil. The move builds on a May announcement to buy back 60 million barrels of crude for the SPR — or one-third of the massive drawdown — at lower prices in the future.
Starved of new talent: Young people are steering clear of oil jobs -In late May, António Guterres, the secretary-general of the United Nations, stood in blue graduation robes in front of a podium at Seton Hall University in South Orange, New Jersey. Looking out at the thousand-plus graduating seniors, Guterres told them that the world was facing a climate catastrophe — and it was up to them to stop it.“As graduates, you hold the cards. Your talent is in demand from multinational companies and big financial institutions,” Guterres said in the commencement address. “But you will have plenty of opportunities to choose from, thanks to the excellence of your graduation. So my message to you is simple. Don’t work for climate wreckers. Use your talents to drive us towards a renewable future.”If they hadn’t heard the advice from Guterres, they might have gotten the idea that digging up ancient oil deposits was not a promising career path from somewhere else. The billionaire Bill Gates recently predicted that oil companies “will be worth very little” in 30 years; CNBC’s loudest finance personality, Jim Cramer of Mad Money, has declared he’s “done” with fossil fuel stocks. It’s part of a larger social reckoning that threatens to make business harder for oil companies. Big Oil is becoming stigmatized as awareness grows that its environmentally-friendly messaging, full of beautiful landscapes and far-off promises toerase (some) of its emissions, doesn’t match its actions. Well over half of millennials say they would avoid working in an industry with a negative image, according to a survey in 2020, with oil and gas topping the list as the most unappealing. With floods, fires, and smoke growing noticeably worse, young people have plenty of reasons to avoid working for the brands that brought you climate change. This poses a hiring challenge for oil companies, with much of their current workforce getting closer to retirement. For years now, consulting firms have been warning the industry that it faces a “talent” gap and surveying young people to figure out how they might be convinced to take the open positions. Meanwhile, solar and wind power are booming and luring young people who want a job that fits with their values. In 2021, according to the business group E2, 3.2 million Americans worked in clean energy industries like renewables, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency — 3.5 times the number that worked in fossil fuels. And this is likely just the beginning: Congress recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which is expected to cause an explosion of climate-related jobs.“I do feel that there’s this big pincer movement coming for the fossil fuel industry — you know, they’re going to be pinched in lots of different directions,” said Caroline Dennett, a safety consultant who publicly quit working for Shell earlier this year because the company was expanding oil and gas extraction projects. “And that’s exactly what we need.”
U.S. E&Ps Hedging Less, Moving Cautiously with Bank Redeterminations Underway - The U.S. oil and natural gas industry is hedging less to avoid leaving money on the table, but overall, operators appear less optimistic regarding their ability to borrow funds, according to a new survey. “Strong oil and gas prices are not directly resulting in strong borrowing base increases,” Haynes and Boone LLC researchers said in their fall 2022 Borrowing Base Redetermination Survey. “Despite oil and natural gas prices reaching heights not seen since 2014 (in the case of oil) and 2008 (in the case of natural gas), respondents are not expecting robust borrowing base increases in fall 2022. “A meaningful percentage of respondents are predicting that borrowing bases will stay flat or even decrease slightly.” The fall survey captured polling through September of 103 executives at exploration and production (E&P) firms, financial institutions, oilfield services companies, private equity firms and professional service providers. Haynes Boone researchers asked executives to predict the E&P industry’s future borrowing capacity. The survey, conducted in the spring and fall since April 2015, attempts to offer a forward-looking view about the projected financial state of the U.S. energy market.“Our latest survey indicates that producers should not expect significant increases in their reserve-based lending credit availability,” said Haynes Boone partner Kraig Grahmann, co-head of Energy Transactions Practice Group. “Indeed, a meaningful percentage of survey respondents are predicting that borrowing bases will stay flat or even decrease slightly.”In contrast, the spring 2022 survey “reflected greater optimism, with a majority of industry respondents expecting double-digit percentage increases in borrowing bases of 20% or more,” researchers noted. “Very few respondents at that time expected borrowing bases to decrease.”
Baker Hughes Expects Oil Patch Bottlenecks To Subside Next Year - The world's third-largest oilfield services provider stated in a corporate update Wednesday that the worst supply chain issues "should be behind us," as this could indicate US crude production could meaningfully increase in 2023. Baker Hughes Co. reported third-quarter results and posted a loss, compared with a profit last year, hit largely by $230 million in restructuring costs and impairment charges after a recent reorganization announcement. During the quarter, Baker Hughes said it would "simplify its organization" and restructure its four product companies to concentrate on two reporting businesses. The company formally restructured into two reporting business segments early this month. "The macro outlook has grown increasingly uncertain as the global economy is dealing with strong inflationary pressures, a rising interest rate environment, and sizeable fluctuations in global currencies," Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said in a statement. Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, "we remain positive on the outlook for oil and gas," Simonelli continued. The company's oilfield service was in a rebound, up 17% in the quarter compared to the same period last year. Sales in the unit are at the highest since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic closed the economy and collapsed the oil and gas industry. The oil patch has struggled to bring on new crude production for the last two years because of supply chain bottlenecks. Many frackers have been unable to find hydraulic fracturing equipment, which led to dismal crude production growth. However, Simonelli pointed out: "2022 has presented some unique challenges for Baker Hughes, and as we head towards 2023 we believe many of the key challenges should be behind us." This could suggest that bottlenecks in the oil patch may wane next year and result in meaningful production increases.
Helmerich & Payne Looks to Reactivate More North American Drilling Rigs in 2023 - Tulsa-based drilling technology expert Helmerich & Payne Inc. (H&P) is facing some inflationary pressures, but it still plans to reactivate up to 16 rigs by the end of March, CEO John Lindsay said. In a preview of fiscal 4Q2022 and full-year results, which are scheduled for Nov. 17, Lindsay offered a positive outlook for more drilling early next year. The reactivated North American rigs, “for appropriate prices and terms,” would take the company’s rig count to “an upper target of 192” for fiscal 2023. That would compare to 175 active rigs at the end of September. H&P has set initial fiscal year 2023 capital expenditures (capex) at $425-475 million. The capex budget represents “a sizable sequential increase,” Lindsay said. It also highlights “the capital-intensive nature of H&P’s business, as well as planned international expansion.” The company’s North America Solutions segment accounts for about two-thirds of the expected spend in 2023, with the reactivation of H&Ps top-of-the-line, super-spec FlexRigs. Six of the 16 idled rigs to be activated would be “converted to a walking configuration,” Lindsay noted. Maintenance capex per rig also “is expected to modestly exceed the high-end of the historic normalized range.” CFO Mark Smith said the North America Solutions segment’s fiscal 2023 capex budget “is adversely impacted by higher maintenance capex, which looks to modestly exceed the historic range of $750,000 to $1 million per rig per year. “The fiscal 2023 range is expected to be between $1.1 million and $1.3 million/active rig. The reasons for this are twofold,” Smith said. “One is due to the reduced spending during the pandemic years in which time the company judiciously preserved capital spending by utilizing component equipment from idle rigs; we now must make up for those capital spending deferments…” The second reason is because of the “current inflationary environment and supply chain challenges that the industry is experiencing,” Smith said. North America Solutions direct margins for fiscal 4Q2022 are expected to be in the “high end of the previous expected range of $185-205 million.” Offshore Gulf of Mexico direct margins are still projected at $9-11 million. H&P also is working to expand its international presence and operations in fiscal 2023.
Private Investors Again Looking At Oil And Gas After Prices Rise -So far this year, private capital funds worldwide investing in fossil fuels — oil, gas, and natural gas — have raised a combined $27.9 billion compared with a total of $19.4 billion in all of 2021, Preqin data show. Investors are attracted to the energy sector and expected returns because prices are on the rise, pushed up by the ongoing war in Ukraine, pinched supplies, and lower investment in fossil fuels when prices were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently predicted that U.S. households will pay more for energy this year to heat their homes this winter versus a year ago. Households will pay 28% more for natural gas, 27% more for heating oil, 10% more for electricity, and 5% for propane. Meanwhile, in Europe gas prices in the first half of 2022, rose fourfold and coal prices rose more than threefold from the same period in 2021, according to the IEA. Pensions & Investments data show that Quantum and NGP have already received commitments for their new oil and gas strategies. Oregon Investment Council, which oversees the $93.3 billion Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund, Tigard, in April committed $200 million to Quantum Energy Partners VIII and $50 million to a sidecar, both focused on investing in energy companies in the oil and gas upstream, midstream, oil field service and power generation sectors. The council also committed $150 million to NGP's new oil and gas fund, NGP Royalty Partners II, plus another $50 million to a sidecar fund. The $11.8 billion Sacramento County (Calif.) Employees' Retirement System is also an investor in the new NGP fund. Blackstone invested in traditional and energy transition assets through its $30 billion infrastructure business as well as its private equity energy and private credit energy businesses. The firm is currently in the market raising its fourth private equity energy fund, Blackstone Energy Partners IV, P&I data shows. To be sure, asset owners and their managers never really left oil and gas investments entirely behind since many energy transition strategies include exposure to hydrocarbon investments. "'Energy transition has become a very broad term," said Adam Toczylowski, private markets consultant at Meketa Investment Group, said. “Energy transition offerings vary from those that exclude any type of oil and gas investments to those that include upstream — referring to the exploration and production of oil and gas — and/or natural gas to replace coal.”
EPA, enviro groups file last flurry of comments for Army Corps’ review of Line 5 tunnel ⋆ As the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Detroit District, wrapped up the first comment period Friday for its forthcoming review of Enbridge’s Line 5 tunnel project, the last flurry of comments recently filed include those from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and several prominent Michigan and Midwest environmental groups.The EPA, the Michigan Climate Action Network (MiCAN) and the Environmental Law & Policy Center (ELPC) all recommended that USACE assess alternatives to the Line 5 tunnel while reviewing the project as a whole.Other recommendations include those regarding environmental justice, tribal resources, climate change, impacts to endangered species and habitats and more.USACE has had three public meetings since Aug. 15 as part of the process, which subjects the Canadian pipeline company’s proposed project to the highest level of federal environmental review. USACE will now use the public comments received over that time to frame their draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS).An EIS involves a lengthy process, and was not Enbridge’s preferred development as the company had favored a less intensive form of review. The agency will next prepare a draft EIS, embark on another 60-day comment period expected in fall 2023, prepare a final EIS and establish a 30-day waiting period in summer 2024. A record of decision is expected to be given in fall 2024 — two years from now. For their part, MiCAN and the ELPC filed formal comments on Line 5 primarily suggesting that the agency needs to consider climate impacts and alternatives that do not cross the environmentally-sensitive Straits of Mackinac. “This is an early stage, but the Corps has got to get this right,” said Scott Strand, senior attorney for the ELPC. “If the Corps decides now that it will not do anything more than compare the environmental risks of the tunnel with the environmental risks of the existing pipelines, the Corps will be doing both itself and the public a grave disservice.”The existing Line 5 continues to age and attract environmental concern. The nearly 70-year-old oil pipeline originates in Northwest Wisconsin and continues for 645 miles into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, under the Straits of Mackinac and out into Canada near Port Huron.Both the current pipeline and its proposed replacement are opposed by all 12 federally recognized tribes in Michigan and tribes in Wisconsin.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel, both Democrats, have battled with Enbridge over the last few years to have the company decommission the existing pipeline before building a tunnel-enclosed replacement. So far, Enbridge has kept the pipeline operating.“It is the Corps’ responsibility to consider alternatives that support the demand for a rapid transition to renewable energy, not lock us into building more fossil fuel infrastructure,”
Enbridge will pay $11 million to settle pipeline violations — Enbridge Energy, the owner and operator of the Line 3 pipeline project in northern Minnesota, will pay more than $11 million after investigations identified water quality violations and three aquifer breaches related to the pipeline’s construction, state regulators said Monday.The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and Department of Natural Resources announced the results from investigations of water quality violations and aquifer breaches related to the construction project.Combined with the previous DNR actions, and in partnership with Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, the investigations have resulted in more than $11 million in payments, environmental projects, and financial assurances from Enbridge, according to the state agencies.The Minnesota agency investigation found that Enbridge violated regulations when it discharged construction storm water into wetlands and inadvertently releasing drilling mud into surface water at 12 locations in June and August of 2021. The DNR also finalized agreements with Enbridge to address three aquifer breaches related to Line 3 construction. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison also said Monday he has filed a misdemeanor criminal charge against Enbridge in Clearwater County District Court for taking water without a permit at the Clearbrook aquifer. A statement from Enbridge said that the charge will be dismissed following one year of compliance with state water rules. Enbridge said $7.5 million of the $11 million will be used to provide financial assurances and fund multiple environmental and resource enhancement projects. “At the start of this project, the MPCA issued our most stringent water quality certification to date and permits that were strong, enforceable, and protective — and this enforcement action holds Enbridge accountable for the violations that occurred during construction,” said MPCA Commissioner Katrina Kessler. Environmentalist Winona LaDuke, applauded the action taken by the state and attorney general, but added the agencies failed Minnesota’s natural resources and tribal treaty rights by allowing the project to continue. “Remember that the aquifer is still hemorrhaging water and the level of contamination is increasing,” the executive director of Honor the Earth said.
Summit Midstream Tripling Natural Gas Processing Footprint in Colorado’s DJ with $305M in Deals - Summit Midstream Partners LP has agreed to acquire Outrigger DJ Midstream LLC and the operating subsidiaries of Sterling Energy Investments LLC for about $305 million total in cash to expand in Colorado. The Outrigger DJ assets in Weld County, CO, within the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin, comprise a 60 MMcf/d cryogenic natural gas processing plant, about 70 miles of low-pressure gas gathering lines, roughly 90 miles of high-pressure gas gathering lines, 12,800 hp of field and plant compression, and about 30 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines. The Sterling subsidiaries, known collectively as Sterling DJ, are in Weld and Logan counties, and in Cheyenne County, NE. They include three cryogenic processing plants with nameplate capacity of 100 MMcf/d, about 450 miles of gas gathering lines, 8,500 hp of field compression, freshwater rights, and about 40 miles of subsurface freshwater delivery infrastructure. “These highly value- and credit-accretive transactions create a strategic franchise position in the DJ Basin that we believe will generate significant free cash flow growth for Summit in the coming years while immediately enhancing the quality and availability of services for our combined customer base in the region,” said Summit CEO Heath Deneke. The acquisitions allow “the integration of our underutilized Hereford gathering and processing system with the capacity constrained Sterling DJ and Outrigger DJ systems,” Deneke added. “Combining operations of the three systems will create significant commercial and operating synergies and will provide substantial running room to grow dedicated producer volumes in the coming years with minimal capital expenditure requirements,” the CEO noted. “Outrigger DJ and Sterling DJ customers are expected to connect over 75 new wells in 2023 and are well-positioned to sustain and potentially grow that level of development activity in the coming years with more than 675 active permits currently held on dedicated acreage.” The transactions, which are slated to close by year’s end, would triple Summit’s DJ gas processing capacity and add an estimated 505,000 dedicated leased acres in rural Weld County, according to the company.
Large oil project asks to inject wastewater into Wyo. aquifer - A Dallas-based oil and gas company is asking EPA to allow it to inject millions of barrels of briny wastewater from thousands of planned wells on Wyoming public lands into a deep water aquifer. The proposal from Aethon Energy has been complicated for years over the question of what to do with the wastewater, with environmental groups saying the oilfield waste could contaminate future drinking water sources. Bone-dry Wyoming is no stranger to water wars from fossil fuel development, such as accusations in the early 2000s that water from coal bed methane polluted surface waters. The state has said the produced water from the coal bed methane boom had little impact on water quality. Disputes can even bubble up to the national level, as when the Obama administration’s EPA found a possible correlation between hydraulic fracturing and polluted drinking water outside the small town of Pavillion. That finding continues to be disputed, with the state repeatedly concluding that fracking was not to blame (Greenwire, Dec. 27, 2019). The Aethon Energy and Burlington Resources Oil and Gas Co. project is not far from Pavillion. In 2020, the Bureau of Land Management gave the companies approval to expand production of the Moneta Divide oil field. The project calls for drilling up to 4,250 wells. Roughly 67 percent of the land is managed by BLM, while 10 percent is Wyoming state lands, and the remainder is private. Over its 65-year life, the Moneta Divide project is expected to produce 18.16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 254 million barrels of oil. It would also produce tremendous volumes of salty water — up to 1.4 million barrels a day at peak production. Over the years, Aethon has deployed or proposed various strategies to dispose of its water waste, including releasing diluted water into nearby creeks, treating the water and using shallow injection wells. But to manage the volumes of produced water projected as production ramps up at Moneta Divide, the company says it needs to inject wastewater into deep formations.
Analysts Say TC Energy Could Divest Keystone Oil Pipeline --TC Energy Corp. could sell billions of dollars of assets to help fund projects in Mexico and Western Canada and may even seek the divestiture of its Keystone oil pipeline to the Gulf Coast, according to analysts. The Canadian company may look to monetize its liquids pipelines as well as smaller gas pipelines with targeted proceeds of as much as C$4 billion ($2.9 billion), RBC Capital Markets analyst Robert Kwan said in a note Monday, citing a recent meeting with TC’s Chief Financial Officer Joel Hunter. Separately, Tudor Pickering & Co. analysts said they see the possibility of the company shoring up its balance sheet with asset sales. A sale of the liquids pipeline would be an “ESG-accretive divestiture” and “the major prize in right-sizing the balance sheet,” analyst Matthew Taylor said in a note Tuesday, upgrading his rating on the stock to buy from hold. TC Energy declined to comment, saying in an email that it doesn’t comment on rumors or speculation. The company has faced challenges in recent years including the cancellation of its expansion of the Keystone XL pipeline after US President Joe Biden pulled a key permit for the project on his first day in office. The company has also experienced a 70% cost overrun in the Coastal GasLink pipeline, which is being built to supply LNG Canada, a massive natural gas export project in British Columbia. TC’s stock price fell to a 19-month low in Toronto earlier this month. The company is primarily focused on natural gas pipelines and power generation. It built the first phase of the 600,000-barrel-a-day Keystone pipeline system more than a decade ago. In recent years, concern about greenhouse gas emissions has prompted some investors to shun oil-sands assets.
Harold Hamm To Acquire Continental Resources For $26.96 Billion - In what we're sure won't be the last oil and gas acquisition deal over the next few quarters, Continental Resources founder Harold G. Hamm is going to be acquiring the company for $26.96 billion, according to multiple reports Monday morning. The consideration amounts to $74.28 per share. Continental shares spiked Monday in the pre-market session on the news. The acquisition price will include $0.28 "in lieu of Continental’s anticipated dividend for the third quarter of 2022", Bloomberg reported. Continental shares were up about 8% on the news Monday morning. The company's press release says: Continental Resources, Inc. today announced that it has entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Omega Acquisition, Inc., an Oklahoma corporation, an entity that is owned by Continental's founder, Harold G. Hamm. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, Merger Sub will commence a tender offer to purchase any and all of the outstanding shares of Continental's common stock at $74.28 per share, other than (i) shares of common stock owned directly or indirectly by Mr. Hamm and the Hamm family and (ii) shares of common stock underlying unvested equity awards issued pursuant to Continental's long-term incentive plans. Based on the shares outstanding as of October 12, 2022, the tender offer would be for approximately 58 million shares of common stock. It marks a 15% premium to the stock's closing price of $64.50 on June 13, 2022, the day before Hamm's family made its initial offer for the company. There is no financing condition to the deal, Bloomberg noted. The acquisition is going to be financed using cash on hand and borrowings that are already available via a revolver. Hamm will also enter into a new term loan facility to help close the financing for the deal, the report says. Hamm sits on the board of Continental and already owns about 83% of the company's common stock with his family. Continental's board acted "on the unanimous recommendation of a special committee consisting solely of independent and disinterested directors", the press release says.
North Dakota Oil, Natural Gas Production Flat as Bakken Operators in Maintenance Mode - North Dakota’s natural gas production averaged 3.09 Bcf/d in August versus 3.1 Bcf/d in July, according to the latest figures from the state’s Department of Mineral Resources (DMR). The slight dip was mainly because of a processing plant outage, DMR’s Lynn Helms, Oil and Gas Division director, told reporters. The natural gas capture rate held steady at 94%, in line with recent months as most Bakken Shale operators have sought to stamp out routine gas flaring. Natural gas output in North Dakota is mostly a byproduct of oil production, which also was flat month/month at 1.07 million b/d, DMR data show. The state’s drilling rig count stood at 43 as of Thursday, compared to monthly counts of 45, 46 and 45 for July, August and September, respectively. By comparison, the rig count in New Mexico – home to a large swath of the Permian Basin – stood at 113 as of Thursday, Helms noted. “People continuously ask, ‘Well where did all the rigs go?’ They went to the Permian,” Helms said. “And so Texas and New Mexico have seen, with the high oil prices, a continuous increase in drilling activity, unlike North Dakota.” North Dakota’s tally of drilled but uncompleted wells stood at 477 as of August, up from 465 in July. However, drilling permits and well completions both increased in September, Helms said. Operators in North Dakota requested 65 drilling permits in September, compared to 53 in July and 102 in August. Well completions in September totaled 81, versus 74 in July and 66 in August, based on preliminary data. Because of the uptick in completions, “we would seriously anticipate we’re going to see an increase in production for the September report, which will come next month,” said Helms. The number of active hydraulic fracturing crews in the state stood at 15 for the week ended Oct. 14. North Dakota boasted an all-time high 17,616 producing wells as of August, according to preliminary estimates, although production is below historic highs. “That just speaks to a mature play where we’re just replacing the decline” of existing wells, Helms said. Helms indicated the state’s most attractive oil resources are behind the DUC wells that operators are waiting to drill until sufficient gas capture infrastructure is in place, “and underneath these federal leases that we just can’t seem to unlock.” Helms said larger producers in the Bakken Shale such as Hess Corp. and ConocoPhillips are mostly planning to hold their production flat in 2023. Continental Resources Inc. “is looking at maybe a bit of growth,” as is Devon Energy Corp., he said. For the state as a whole, Helms said he expects flat to 2% output growth next year. As for natural gas, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting Bakken natural gas output to average 3.19 Bcf/d for September and 3.22 Bcf/d in October. On the regulatory front, Helms said DMR was informed by the Department of Justice that the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is planning to announce a new rule by the end of October to restrict flaring and venting of natural gas on federal acreage. “It is just a continuous game of what’s next with the Department of Interior in terms of erecting barriers to increased oil and gas production on federal lands,” Helms said. He noted that BLM did not hold any oil and gas lease sales during the third quarter. The Mineral Leasing Act requires BLM to hold quarterly onshore lease sales in states where eligible lands are available.
ExxonMobil to offload US refinery to Par Pacific for $310m -ExxonMobil and its affiliates have agreed to sell the Billings refinery and associated marketing and logistics assets in the US to Par Pacific Holdings in a deal worth $310m.The sale also includes a 65% stake in an adjacent cogeneration facility and an expansive PADD IV and V marketing and logistics network.Exxon’s logistics assets considered for sale include the wholly owned 55,000 barrels per day (bpd) Silvertip Pipeline, a 40% stake in the 65,000bpd Yellowstone refined products pipeline, and seven refined product terminals. Par Pacific president and CEO William Pate said: “This acquisition will significantly enhance our scale and geographic diversification and underpins our focus on pursuing strategic growth initiatives.
ExxonMobil Buys Two Pipelines from Company Responsible for 2015’s Refugio Oil Spill - ExxonMobil has purchased a 123-mile stretch of two pipelines — 901 and 903 — from Plains All American Pipeline, the responsible party for the May 2015 pipeline rupture and oil spill that effectively shut down all oil production off the coast of Santa Barbara County at Las Flores Canyon. ExxonMobil and county energy planners have confirmed the sale took place, but the sale price is not being publicly released. The deal now puts ExxonMobil directly in the driver’s seat in seeking permits to replace the two stretches of corroded pipeline needed to get the company’s oil from its processing plant at Las Flores canyon to Sisquoc and from Sisquoc to refiners located in Pentland. The acquisition comes just a few months after the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors voted 3-2 to deny ExxonMobil’s request to truck its Las Flores Canyon oil to Pentland. ExxonMobil vowed to sue the county for that denial, but the rejection puts greater urgency on ExxonMobil’s need to get the defective pipeline replaced. The permit application process for Pipelines 901 and 903 promises to take many years — seven is the rough estimate — and involve multiple state, federal, and local jurisdictions. It is currently stalled pending the submission of certain information needed to reactivate the preliminary environmental review process. In May 2015, 2,940 barrels of oil escaped from Plains All American’s Line 901 — determined to have become badly corroded — along the Gaviota Coast, with about 500 barrels making it into the ocean. Since several oil companies relied on that pipeline for their offshore production, the rupture effectively put them either out of commission, like ExxonMobil, or out of business, like Venoco. Venoco’s lawsuit against Plains is still wending its way through the county’s court system — though breaching for procedural rulings this week — as is a parallel lawsuit filed by the State Lands Commission. A month ago, Plains All American settled a class-action lawsuit with members of the local fishing industry for loss of business inflicted by the spill to the tune of $230 million. What difference it makes that ExxonMobil has taken ownership of the pipelines in question remains to be seen. County energy planners say they have yet to meet with the new owners over the matter. Linda Krop with the Environmental Defense Center noted that Plains All American is currently on the hook to fund a major restoration effort for the terrain impacted by the Refugio Oil Spill. Will ExxonMobil assume that responsibility, she wondered, or will it remain with Plains?
ExxonMobil gets Central Coast oil pipelines tied to spill - Two crude oil pipelines on the Central Coast owned by beleaguered company Plains All American have been acquired by oil giant ExxonMobil. “ExxonMobil has signed an agreement with Plains All American Pipeline to acquire lines 901 and 903 located in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and Kern counties,” said Julie L. King, an ExxonMobil spokeswoman. “A team from ExxonMobil Pipeline Company will conduct a thorough inspection of the pipelines to determine how to safely and responsibly return them to service.” On May 19, 2015, Plains’ pipeline 901 ruptured near Refugio State Beach, spilling up to 630,000 gallons, or 15,000 barrels, of crude oil onto the shoreline and into the ocean. Plains was found criminally liable in 2018 for the oil spill because of failed maintenance and extensive pipeline corrosion.According to the Justice Department, the discharge was caused by Plains’ failure to address external corrosion and have adequate control-room procedures in place, and was further exacerbated by Plains’ failure to respond properly. In Santa Barbara, a Superior Court judge in 2019 ordered Plains to pay a$3.3 million criminal fine for the Refugio oil spill. The spill devastated the fishing industry and polluted coastal properties from Santa Barbara County to Los Angeles County. Plains All American Pipeline also in May of this year agreed to settle a class-action lawsuit, and pay $230 million to fishers, fish processors, and shoreline property residents damaged by the Refugio oil spill in 2015. Linda Krop, chief counsel for the Environmental Defense Center, has questions about the acquistion of the 123-mile pipeline route.“We will continue to monitor the county’s environmental review process, and ask if there will be any changes to the project,” Krop said. “Our goal is to make sure that the county discloses all of the impacts of the pipeline project, including the impacts from restarting the platforms.”
Possible oil spill in Long Beach under investigation – The U.S. Coast Guard and Long Beach Fire Department are investigating the source of a possible oil spill in Long Beach near Alamitos Beach. Witnesses reported seeing tar balls on the shoreline around 4:30 p.m. Friday, Oct. 14 near the 400 block of East Shoreline Drive, and fire department officials joined the Coast Guard in responding to the scene, U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer Aidan Cooney said. “When our team arrived there was no oil or any tar balls along the shoreline and any oil that was in the water had dissipated,” Cooney said. Cooney said the source of the slick was unknown.
OC oil spill: Pipeline operator agrees to pay $50 million --The company that operates an underwater oil pipeline that gushed thousands of gallons of crude into the ocean off Huntington Beach last year has settled a class-action lawsuit for $50 million, according to court records obtained Tuesday.The court papers were filed at 10 p.m. Monday, according to attorney Wylie Aitken, the lead lawyer for the plaintiffs. Of the $50 million Amplify Energy will pay to settle the lawsuit, $37 million will go to a class of fishers, $9 million will go to property owners and about $7 million goes to the tourism industry such as whale watching companies, Aitken said.The settlement also includes multiple steps to try to prevent such a spill from happening again, Aitken said.According to the agreement, Amplify Energy will increase training to comply with state laws "to notify and update all appropriate response agencies of any release or threatened release of a hazardous material or pollutant substance from any pipeline, conveyance system, or any other operation of defendants in the state of California, as required by law." Amplify also agreed to notify the state Office of Emergency Services "and any local unified environmental program or agency."The company agreed to improve its "leak detection system." For the next four years, the company will also notify the state's Office of Emergency Services "of each leak detection alarm." The company will also "conduct actual visual inspections of the pipeline semiannually rather than one inspection every two years as required by law," for the next four years.The company also agreed to spend at least $250,000 for "pipeline related procedures" before the pipeline is restarted. And Amplify will increase staffing on the Elly platform to provide for three control room operators (an increase of one per crew) and three plant operators (an increase of one per crew) over the next three years.
MARAD Letter Reveals New Details About Latest Unusual Jones Act Waiver in Puerto Rico -A determination letter from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration is shedding new light on the Jones Act LNG waiver issued by the Department of Homeland Security earlier this week, including the urgency and speed at which it was requested and then issued over the weekend.The letter was sent last Sunday, October 16, by MARAD Administrator Rear Adm. Ann Phillips to W. Richmond Beevers at the U.S. Customs and Border Protection in response to an urgent request submitted on Saturday for a U.S.-flag market availability survey required of MARAD as part of the Jones Act waiver process.Based on details on the letter, the waiver request was made to the CBP on Saturday, Oct. 15, by Naturgy Aprovisionamientos (Naturgy) and AES Andres, a Dominican power company, asking for a waiver for the next-day delivery of 30,000 cbm of LNG from the Dominican Republic. CBP sent the availability survey request to MARAD that same day along a two-hour deadline of 5 p.m. Saturday. The “temporary and targeted” waiver was granted the next day on Sunday, October 16, by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to “address the unique and urgent need for liquified natural gas in Puerto Rico.”The waiver was the second issued under unusual retroactive circumstances by the DHS in response to Hurricane Fiona relief efforts. The first was requested by BP in late September to allow a foreign tanker, theGH Parks, to deliver diesel to the island. At the time of the request, GH Parks had already departed the U.S. with the cargo. News of its arrival in Puerto Rico caused public and political outcry leading up to the waiver’s approval days later, which prompted a furious response from American maritime industry interests who called it out as being illegal and unjustified. From Phillips’ letter, we’re now learning that in both cases the waivers were requested after the cargoes had already departed the U.S. mainland on foreign-flagged vessels—presenting a situation Rear Adm. Phillips notes is “novel and problematic.” “As with the previous waiver, the decision to approve was made in consultation with the Departments of Transportation and Energy to assess the justification for the waiver request and based on input from the Governor of Puerto Rico and others on the ground supporting recovery efforts,” Secretary Mayorkas said in a statement announcing the LNG waiver.
Diesel Crisis Deepens As Inventories Fall To Dangerous Levels -While the OPEC+ agreement to cut crude oil production and the U.S. reaction to it dominate headlines, a much more immediate crisis is getting worse by the day.Global diesel and other distillate fuel stocks have been on the decline for a while now, and there is no reversal of this trend in sight. Demand, on the other hand, has been growing, leading to a widening shortage.The situation has become so grave that U.S. buyers have begun snapping up diesel cargos originally sailing for Europe.Reuters reported earlier this month that at least three tankers carrying diesel from the Middle East had changed their course mid-journey and were now traveling to the United States. And this new competition is about to intensify.The foundation of the shortage is the gap between refining capacity and fuel demand. The pandemic saw a lot of refineries close, especially in the United States. It wasn’t just the pandemic itself—the anticipation of a boom in demand for EVs that would render a lot of refining capacity obsolete also had a part to play, as Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a column last week.This boom has yet to materialize, however. In the meantime, fuel demand remains robust, resulting in a shortage. In Europe, there have been contributing factors, such as the French refinery workers’ strike, which has made the shortage much worse than it would have been otherwise, and the upcoming planned maintenance-related refinery closuresEurope is currently buying a lot of Russian diesel to fill the gap, but this will have to stop next February as the embargo on Russian fuels kicks in, further aggravating an already complicated situation with the supply of middle distillates in a major consuming regionArgus reported this week that Europe is in for a major diesel supply shock because of low inventories and strong demand. And the level of inventories had a lot to do with the unplanned outages at European refineries before maintenance season, including the four-week drop in French fuel output amid the workers’ strike.On top of that, the article quoted traders as saying there has been little incentive to build diesel inventories in the current market situation: diesel is strongly backwardated right now, so from the perspective of refiners and commodity traders, there is little sense in stockpiling.In the United States, meanwhile, distillate stocks have fallen to 106 million barrels, which is the lowest since records of these stocks began back in 1982, Reuters’ Kemp reported. Europe is doing a little better, with distillate stocks at 360 million barrels at the end of September, the lowest seasonal since 2007.The U.S. has been exporting a lot of diesel to troubled Europe, but now things are changing, and not just because cargoes are being diverted from Europe to the U.S. coast. Refiners in the United States are bracing for a possible ban on fuel exports.
What ‘Backwardation’ Has to Do With US Diesel Squeeze - A crisis is once again brewing in the US for the diesel fuel that powers trucks and heats homes. Global shortages and a market phenomenon known as backwardation are frustrating Biden administration efforts to bolster dangerously low domestic inventories and keep prices from soaring as winter approaches. Officials are now considering steps like export restrictions that would be unprecedented -- and that critics say could well backfire. The country is down to 25 days of diesel supply with stockpiles at their lowest level for this time of year in records going back to 1993. In the Northeast, where more people burn fuel for home heating than anywhere else in the country, inventories are a third of their typical levels heading into winter. National Economic Council Director Brian Deese called the levels “unacceptably low.” By late October, diesel prices had risen for more than two weeks to 50% above where they were a year ago. Backwardation and contango are names for curve structures that map traders’ guesses about what a given contract will be worth in the future. In the former, the curve is downward sloping, meaning prices are expected to fall in the future; in the latter, it’s the reverse and upward sloping. Right now, traders are paying more for prompt deliveries than longer-term ones. This backwardated market structure incentivizes suppliers to sell now instead of holding onto the product. In October, the diesel curve had become so backwardated that sellers risked losing as much as 30 to 40 cents a gallon holding onto the product until the next month, compared with less than 1 cent at the same time last year. Not only was the spread unusually large, but the backwardation had lasted unusually long: Typically the diesel market flips into contango in the summer, allowing suppliers to replenish fuel ahead of peak harvest and heating season. This year, that never happened. Refiners in Texas and Louisiana can export diesel out of the Gulf Coast to buyers in Latin America and Europe for an immediate profit -- and they have been doing just that. The market backwardation means domestic deliveries that take longer are risky. This is a key reason that the country’s major fuel pipeline connecting Gulf Coast refiners and East Coast consumers was underused for months while East Coast seasonal diesel stockpiles languished at record lows -- the product can lose a lot of its value in the two to three weeks it takes to move through the pipeline. Diesel supplies have also tightened due to a steady decline in East Coast refining capacity in recent years, which has made the region more reliant on overseas imports, some of which come from across the Atlantic -- Europe and Russia. Shipments from both sources have dried up/decreased. Europe is exporting less fuel as it grapples with the sharp drop in oil and natural gas imports from Russia, and sanctions imposed by the US after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have stopped shipments from there. At the same time, US seasonal demand for diesel is at the highest level since 2007. Farmers are burning the fuel to harvest crops, residents of the Northeast are filling up their heating oil tanks before prices rise even more and trucks moving goods on the country’s highways have geared up ahead of the holiday shopping season.
Mexico plans 2023 oil hedge at $68.70/bl - Pemex's annual oil hedging program will remain in place next year to protect its revenues against any declines in global crude prices, Mexico's finance ministry confirmed yesterday. "For 2023, we have an oil hedging program that will kick in if oil prices drop below $68.70/bl," finance undersecretary Gabriel Yorio told a committee in congress yesterday. Each year, the finance ministry undertakes a series of secretive deals — thought to be the largest of their kind — to hedge oil revenues in the event of a decrease in crude prices. The hedge typically covers 250mn bl, or the equivalent of annual net exports. Previous hedges have cost around $1bn. The hedge was key to propping up federal revenues during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic that briefly pushed crude futures prices into negative territory for the first time. Crude prices have since surged, with the Mexican crude basket averaging $95.80/bl so far this year, up by 46.7pc on last year's $65.30/bl average and over one and a half times the $36.24/bl average during the peak of the pandemic in 2020, according to Pemex data. Oil revenues are expected to contribute Ps1.3 trillion ($64.6bn) to federal income next year, with the Mexican basket price — that reflects a mix of its export grades — forecast at $68.70/bl and production targets of 1.87mn b/d. The target is ambitious given August's output of 1.67mn b/d. Since 2017, state-owned Pemex has contracted its own separate hedge that covers around 14pc of output, director Octavio Romero said previously.
Brazil hit record gas production in September - Brazil produced a record amount of natural gas in September but reinjected almost half of it back into wells. Total gas production amounted to 143.1mn m³/d in the month, a 2.2pc increase from August, according to preliminary data from oil and gas regulator ANP. Output last month was up by 7.3pc from a year earlier. Reinjection, in which gas is pumped back into wells to enhance oil recovery or to avoid flaring and the release of CO2, accounted for almost 69mn m³/d of gas output in September. That was down by 0.9pc from August while rising by 2.8pc from September 2021 levels. Reinjection hit a record in August, at 69.6mn m³/d. Gas consumption on platforms rose sharply to 51.3mn m³/d, more than triple the amounts consumed in the previous month and in September 2021. Gas available to the market was 56.7mn m³/d, a 6.4pc increase from the prior month and up by 16pc from September 2021. Gas flaring fell to 3.2mn m³/d, a 4pc drop from the prior month and a 21pc slump from the same month last year.
TotalEnergies selects px Group to operate North Sea gas pipeline - TotalEnergies E&P UK, a unit of French energy company TotalEnergies, has contracted UK-based engineering company px Group to operate the Seal gas pipeline in the North Sea. Operational for more than 20 years, the 474km-long SEAL pipeline is deemed to be a ‘critical component’ of the UK’s energy supply and energy security. The 20-year contract has been awarded to Energy24, a px Group business, and is effective from 1 August this year. The pipeline transports gas from the Elgin Franklin platform in the North Sea’s Central Graben Area to the Bacton gas terminal on the Norfolk coast.
Anti-oil protesters throw tomato soup on van Gogh’s Sunflowers -On Friday, two anti-oil activists threw two cans of tomato soup over Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers (1888) at the National Gallery in London. The pair, Phoebe Plummer, 21, from London, and Anna Holland, 20, from Newcastle, are supporters of Just Stop Oil. The latter is a coalition of groups demanding that the British government “immediately halt all future licensing and consents for the exploration, development and production of fossil fuels in the UK.” Just Stop Oil has been staging protests in recent weeks, “part of a longer plan of disruption in London that will continue for the rest of this month.” During last Friday’s action, Plummer asked onlookers, “Is art worth more than life? More than food? More than justice?” She went on, “The cost-of-living crisis is driven by fossil fuels. Everyday life has become unaffordable for millions of cold, hungry families. They can’t even afford to heat a tin of soup. Meanwhile, crops are failing and people are dying in supercharged monsoons, massive wildfires and endless droughts caused by climate breakdown. We can’t afford new oil and gas, it’s going to take everything. We will look back and mourn all we have lost unless we act immediately.” Holland said, “UK families will be forced to choose between heating or eating this winter, as fossil fuel companies reap record profits. But the cost of oil and gas isn’t limited to our bills. Somalia is now facing an apocalyptic famine, caused by drought and fueled by the climate crisis. Millions are being forced to move and tens of thousands face starvation. This is the future we choose for ourselves if we push for new oil and gas.”
Defiant campaigners vow to fight against 'threat' of fracking - Express.co.uk - When Cuadrilla first proposed test drilling on the picturesque Fylde coast in Lancashire, it didn't go down too well with residents. They responded by objecting: fiercely and vociferously. A group of headscarf-wearing grandmothers formed a ragtag group known as Nanas Against Fracking and joined forces. They lobbied Lancashire County Council's meeting in Preston with banners and noisy marches through the city watched by amused onlookers. On a grey day at Cuadrilla’s former Preston New Road well this week, just hours before the chaotic vote in the Commons as PM Liz Truss desperately clung to power, the Nanas returned in force. Retired school administrator, Jill Walton, from the village of Inskip, said of her three grandchildren: "I don’t want them to live with poisoned air, poisoned water and water poisoned land - that’s before you get to the earthquakes." She criticised Ms Truss’s Government for breaking a Tory manifesto promise not to allow fracking unless the science proved it was safe. Ms Walton said: "[The Government] should insulate houses, instal more solar panels and get battery technology going so people can have a power supply when the sun isn’t shining." More than a dozen campaigners from Nanas Against Fracking and Frack Free Lancashire returned to the former fracking site in a field off the A583 between Blackpool and Preston on Wednesday (October 19). Under grey skies and with a chill wind blowing in from the Irish Sea, locals protested by the side of the road yards from a now capped fracking well, playing Queen’s "Another One Bites the Dust" from a loudspeaker. Brandishing bright yellow "No fracking" placards and a banner reading "No means no", the group shared homemade chocolate brownies as passing motorists sped past, beeping their horns in a show of support. The message from the campaigners was clear: Don’t expect an easy time of it if you try and frack here again. The message came ahead of a rough ride for former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s Government which defeated Labour’s bid to ban fracking amid farcical scenes in the House of Commons. The motion was defeated by 230 votes to 326, with a majority of 96. Conservative whips initially said the vote on whether to allocate Commons time to consider legislation to stop shale gas extraction was being treated as a confidence motion in Ms Truss’s embattled Government.
Basildon MP John Baron calls vote on fracking 'a shambles' of which there 'can never be a repeat' - An Essex MP has branded a vote on the use of fracking "a shambles" following allegations of bullying behaviour and the chief government whips allegedly quitting before returning to post. John Baron, Tory MP for Basildon and Billericay, said Downing Street needs "to get a grip and bring in more experienced hands". Mr Baron's comments refer to the incident in Westminster on Wednesday night which- saw speculation that chief whip Wendy Morton and her deputy Craig Whittaker had resigned in fury at the handling of a vote on a Labour motion over fracking. It came after climate minister Graham Stuart told the Commons minutes before the vote that “quite clearly this is not a confidence vote”, despite Mr Whittaker earlier issuing a “100 per cent hard” three-line whip, meaning any Tory MP who rebelled could be thrown out of the parliamentary party.
Fracking: What's all the fuss about it in the UK? - The UK’s world of politics plunged deeper into turmoil on Wednesday night after a debate on frackingled to alleged physical altercations between Prime Minister Liz Truss’ aides and lawmakers from her own Conservative Party.Last month, Truss’ government formally lifted a ban on fracking for shale gas that had been in place for England since 2019, arguing that strengthening the country’s energy supply was an “absolute priority.” The main opposition Labor Party brought forward a motion to restore the ban, but some Conservative members of parliament reported they were bullied, even manhandled, into voting in line with Truss. But what exactly is fracking, and why is it so contentious? Here’s what you need to know.Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European gas prices have surged to record highs and Britain is subsidizing bills for households and businesses at a predicted cost of more than 100 billion pounds ($110.4 billion).Britain is heavily reliant on natural gas, which will take years to reduce. Gas heats around 80% of the country’s homes and on some days it can be used to generate almost 50% of the country’s electricity. The government is seeking to increase domestic gas production, which has been in decline, to reduce its reliance on imports. The industry body Offshore Energies UK says that without new investment, Britain will have to import around 80% of its gas by 2030, up from around 60% now.How much gas could be produced? Scientists say this is still unclear. Since only few test wells have been drilled, there are no estimates of proven reserves to confidently predict how much shale gas would be technically and economically viable to extract by fracking. The government has said that the only way to assess this is to allow drilling to start. “Lifting the pause… will enable drilling to gather this further data, building an understanding of UK shale gas resources and how we can safely carry out shale gas extraction in the UK,” a statement from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) said last month. Why is it controversial? Injecting fluids at high pressure can cause tremors in the Earth, while people in the communities affected are also concerned about the impact on the landscape, tourism and agriculture. Shale gas is also a fossil fuel and campaigners say that extracting more fossil fuels goes against the country’s target to reach net zero emissions by 2050. It also uses a large amount of water and environmental groups have raised fears over possible groundwater contamination.
Explained: The fracking debate that became the last straw for the Liz Truss govt - Six weeks into her term as the English premier, Liz Truss has resigned from her position, conceding that she had not only failed to deliver on her electoral promises but also lost the faith of her party. In doing so, Truss has set the record for the shortest term as PM in British history. The 24 hours that led up to her resignation were characterised by utter chaos, with resignations (and rumours of resignations) coming in left right and centre as Truss struggled to keep her sinking ship afloat. While there were ultimately multiple factors that led to the quick and spectacular demise of the Truss government, the straw that broke the proverbial camel's back was a contentious vote on formally banning the practice of fracking in the UK. To give a bit of context, fracking is a controversial method of extracting oil and gas from shale rock. The practice was halted in the UK in 2019 after it faced stiff opposition from environmental groups and concerns over regular earth tremors in and around the fracking sites. Later, the Labour party introduced a bill in British Parliament to permanently ban the practice, a bill that was at least verbally supported by many in the Conservative party as well. However, in September this year, amidst rising energy prices, Lizz Truss announced that her administration would be lifting the moratorium as part of a raft of measures to stabilise UK energy prices. On Wednesday, the Labour party pushed for a vote on banning the practice and chaos ensued. According to the reports, several senior Tories had already vowed to oppose Truss and support the Labour bill ahead of the vote on Wednesday. There were also reports of Conservative party members being told that the vote was, in effect, a confidence vote and a loss here would somehow signify the fall of the Tory government. Predictably, riled-up Conservative MPs voted to defeat the Labour bill calling for a ban, with the final result being 326 votes against the ban and 230 for it. What is surprising is that more than 40 Conservative MPs still voted in favour of the ban, regardless of the rumours of a hidden confidence vote. A Even more shocking, there were several alleged eyewitness accounts of Tory MPs being 'bullied and physically manhandled' ahead of the vote to follow the party line.Amidst all this confusion, there were also rumours of Chief Whip Wendy Morton being so furious with the farcical turn of events that she threatened to resign but was later compelled to stay on.
Natural Gas Forecast: EU Storage Progress, Warm Weather Deal Blows To US, EU Prices - Natural gas prices in Europe and the United States dropped sharply on Monday, helping to ease concerns for the commodity heading into the winter months. A backdrop composed of warmer-than-usual weather and ahead-of-schedule inventory buildups in the US and the EU has helped to cool speculative pressure on the commodity at a critical time. According to a draft proposal reported by Reuters, the European Union appears ready to move forward with a“dynamic” price cap for LNG. The Agency for Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) would be tasked with implementing the price cap. The ACER's mandate would target prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TFF)—the virtual pricing point for EU natural gas. The exact effectiveness of a price cap remains debated, but for now, the market appears to see it as a bearish price development. Still, EU governments would need to reach a consensual agreement on the move, which Germany may oppose. Meanwhile, the bloc has made better-than-expected progress on its inventory buildup, with AGSI-GIE data showing that EU storage levels rose above the 92% mark as of October 15. So far, October has been a mild month in terms of temperatures across most of Europe—a welcome development for the energy situation. If the weather remains mild, it should keep prices depressed even if the EU stumbles on implementing price cap measures. US prices are falling amid mild temperatures. The National Weather Service's 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows a high probability for above-average temperatures across the eastern half of the United States. That should temper gas demand. Moreover, the NWS sees above-normal precipitation across the western US, which would bolster the supply of hydroelectricity. Another notable market development comes from Africa, where Nigeria LNG Ltd. announced a force majeure due to flooding at its Bonny Island LNG facility. The company procures over 20 million tons of liquified natural gas (LNG) per year. However, the extent of disruption from the force majeure is not fully realized yet, although the company said it was working to limit operational disruptions. The market seems unfazed, but a prolonged outage may provide a tailwind to prices if the chances for an extended outage rise. .
Danes confirm 'extensive damage" to Baltic Sea pipelines - (AP) — Danish officials on Tuesday confirmed that there has been “extensive damage” to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea off Denmark and that the cause of the damage was “powerful explosions.” In a statement, the Copenhagen Police said it had carried out a number of preliminary investigations of what it called “the crime scenes," with assistance from Denmark's Armed Forces and in collaboration with, among others, the Danish security and intelligence agency. “It is very serious, and this is by no means a coincidence. It doesn’t just seem planned, but very well planned,” Danish Defense Minister Morten Bødskov told broadcaster TV2. The intelligence agency and the police have decided to set up a joint investigation group which will handle the further investigation of the incidents, the police said, adding it was “not possible to say when the investigation can be expected to be completed.” Earlier this month, the Swedish domestic security agency said its preliminary investigation of two further leaks closer to its coast “has strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage” and a prosecutor said evidence at the site has been seized. Swedish newspaper Expressen published Tuesday what it claims is a video of the damaged pipelines off Sweden and said that at least 50 meters (165 feet) of the metal pipe appears to be missing The four leaks occurred in international but within the exclusive economic zone of Denmark and Sweden. The damaged Nord Stream pipelines discharged huge amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the air for several days..
'Powerful explosions' triggered major gas leak on Russian pipelines, Danish police say - A preliminary investigation into gas leaks from two underwater pipelines connecting Russia to Germany found "powerful explosions" caused the damage, Copenhagen Police said Tuesday. The findings appeared to be similar to a crime scene investigation carried out by Sweden's national security service earlier this month, which reinforced suspicions of "gross sabotage."A flurry of detonations on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on Sept. 26 sent gas spewing to the surface of the Baltic Sea. The explosions triggered four gas leaks at four locations — two in Denmark's exclusive economic zone and two in Sweden's exclusive economic zone.Danish police said a joint group, including The Norwegian Police Intelligence Service, would be set up to handle further investigations of the incidents."It is still too early to say anything about the framework under which the international cooperation with e.g. Sweden and Germany will run, as it depends on several actors, including which authorities handle the case in the various countries," the statement said Tuesday.Danish police said it was not possible to say when the investigation was likely to be completed.Many in Europe suspect the Nord Stream gas leaks were the result of an attack, particularly as it occurred during a bitter energy standoff between the European Union and Russia.The Kremlin has repeatedly dismissed claims it destroyed the pipelines, calling such allegations "stupid" and "absurd," and claiming that it is the U.S. that had the most to gain from the gas leaks. The White House has denied any involvement in the suspected attack.
Denmark says ‘powerful explosions’ caused the Nord Stream pipeline leaks. Danish authorities said on Tuesday that “powerful explosions” had caused the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines to rupture three weeks ago, but declined to say who might have caused them.In announcing the results of their initial investigation, the Copenhagen Police echoed Swedish investigators, who reported this month that the leaks on the undersea pipelines, built to carry gas to Germany from Russia and transiting close to Sweden and Denmark, sprung from detonations that they strongly suspected were acts of sabotage.German authorities, who have been conducting their own investigation, have refused to comment on their findings, citing national security concerns.Three weeks after the explosions on the bed of the Baltic Sea, European investigators have said little about who was responsible for the blasts that, according to images taken by an undersea drone, commissioned by the Swedish tabloid Expressen, tore away 164 feet of one of the steel-and-concrete pipes on Nord Stream 1.“There are grooves in the seabed where the pipes were, where you can see broken objects that look like pieces of piping,” Trond Larsen, the drone operator, told Expressen. “We searched the area with the camera, but were unable to find the other end of the pipe.”The images, which could not be independently verified, showed two distinct lines, with a gaping expanse between them.“It takes an extreme force to bend such thick metal in the way we see,” Mr. Larsen said.Explosions seem to have occurred at separate locations on the Baltic Sea floor — one in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone, northeast of the island of Bornholm, and another southeast of the same island, but in international waters that fall in Denmark’s exclusive economic zone.The Copenhagen Police said in a statement that it had investigated “the crime scenes in the Baltic Sea” with help from the Danish Defense Ministry, Denmark’s national intelligence agency, known as PET, and the Danish Armed Forces. The police, along with PET, will further investigate the incidents, it said, and will work with authorities in other countries, including Sweden and Germany. The police did not specify when the investigation would conclude.Nord Stream AG, the company that owns and operates the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, said on Oct. 4 that its inability to secure necessary permits from Denmark and Sweden had prevented it from inspecting the pipeline. A survey vessel chartered by the company was also still waiting for approval from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to depart, it said.The company did not respond to calls seeking comment on Tuesday.At the time of the blasts, the pipelines were filled with methane, and the gas gushed into the sea. Although filled, the pipelines had become caught in the tensions ensnaring Germany and Russia due to the war in Ukraine, and no gas was reaching Germany.Political leaders in Europe, the United States and Russia have suggested that the incident was a deliberate act, but no one has produced evidence revealing the perpetrator, or how the blasts could have been carried out. Poland and Ukraine have both openly blamed Russia, which, in turn, has accused the United States. Both Moscow and Washington have strongly denied involvement.The blasts severed a critical energy link between Russia and Western Europe, although neither was actively transporting gas at the time — Russia had recently throttled back Nord Stream 1, citing technical issues, while Nord Stream 2 had not yet become fully operational.In the weeks since the explosions, countries surrounding the Baltic and North Seas have increased security patrols on the waters. Norway, which has become Europe’s most important source of natural gas since Russia invaded Ukraine, has also sent in troops to reinforce its offshore energy infrastructure.
Sahra Wagenknecht: Government refuses information on pipeline attack - (translation) Sahra Wagenknecht, opposition politician in the German parliament, asked the German government for information on the attack on the Northstream pipelines, and got this reply: «"For reasons of the state's well-being" no further information will be provided. "After careful consideration, the federal Government has come to the conclusion that further information cannot be provided – not even in classified form – for reasons of the state's well-being." The reason for this is the "third-party rule" for international cooperation of the intelligence services. According to this, the international exchange of knowledge is subject to particularly strict secrecy requirements. "The information requested thus affects confidentiality interests that are so in need of protection that the state's well-being outweighs the parliamentary right to information and the right of members of Parliament to ask questions must exceptionally take precedence over the confidentiality interest of the federal government.“ In plain language: there are probably findings that the members of the Bundestag are not allowed to learn. For this reason, the German government does not answer Wagenknecht's question "which NATO ships and troops" have been in the areas where the damage occurred since the suspension of gas supplies by Nord Stream 1, and which Russian ships and troops were sighted during that period. This answer, too, "would involve the disclosure of information that would have a particular impact on the welfare of the state," writes the Federal Foreign Office. Therefore, a classification and deposit of the requested information is also out of the question, "since even the low risk of becoming known cannot be accepted".»
Brussels proposes further emergency measures to address Europe’s mounting energy crisis. — The European Union unveiled a fresh proposal on Tuesday for emergency measures to tackle the energy crisis that has rocked the continent, sending utility prices soaring and threatening Europeans with bankruptcy.Europeans depend on natural gas to heat their homes and to keep their industry going. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, imports from Moscow amounted to 40 percent of E.U. countries’ gas consumption. But to punish the bloc for its support for Ukraine, Russia has been toying with its energy supply, a tactic that has contributed to punishing heating and electricity prices.Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission — the E.U. executive arm, which drafts Europe-wide legislation — said on Tuesday that Europe’s response to what she called a “severe knock-on effect” of Russia’s war in Ukraine should be more solidarity.“We are stronger when we act together,” Ms. von der Leyen told reporters while presenting the proposals.The draft legislation comes after weeks of intense debate among member countries, which have pushed in shifting coalitions for various potential solutions to the crisis, including a controversial price cap on natural gas.On Tuesday, the commission shied away from a straightforward cap, and focused instead on joint purchasing of gas, cutting down further on gas consumption, and strengthening fuel sharing between countries in case Russia turns off the taps completely. It also proposed limited interventions in the energy market to rein in prices.E.U. countries have different energy mixes and policies, and experts warned that finding a “fit for all” solution to the complex crisis might not be feasible. But the energy market is regulated at E.U. level, and the commission has been under increasing pressure from national governments to come up with a stronger collective response.Beyond technicalities, the issue of how to shield Europe from soaring energy prices is deeply political. Reducing the amount of gas imported from Russia has left a gap in the E.U. market, and despite a frenzied hunt for other energy sources, supply across the bloc does not match demand. The question remains about who is going to foot the bill for this mismatch, and how.In order to find a compromise, the commission proposed creating a new way to price natural gas inside the bloc. But a new pricing mechanism will take months to design. In the meantime, the commission suggested there should be the option of a price limit as a last resort in emergencies, but it did not elaborate on technical details.So far, member countries have focused mainly on subsidies for struggling businesses and households, and last month the bloc adopted an emergency tax on revenues of energy companies in order to partially finance the handouts. But E.U. members do not have equal fiscal firepower, and there was a growing concern among poorer countries that they would be left behind.
The EU wants to limit spiking gas prices after 'excessive' moves this summer - The European Union is working on new measures to prevent extremely high gas prices after "excessive" levels seen this summer, in a move that could have major implications for European consumers. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, proposed Tuesday setting a limit on daily gas trading levels. The aim is to avoid price spikes, which can lead to higher energy bills for households. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, reached historic levels in late August, when the price of natural gas jumped to 341 euros ($334) per megawatt hour, from around 45 euros a year earlier. Prices have come down since then as EU nations have taken steps to improve their energy supply, but they remain relatively high on an historic basis and are a major problem for the European economy. European natural gas prices were trading around 120 euros per megawatt hour Tuesday. "We are in a high price global reality," a senior EU official, who did not want to be named due to the discussions still being underway, told reporters Tuesday. The same official added that the summer's "excessive" prices "had a significant impact on the European economy and European consumers." The potential gas trading limits are, however, meant to be temporary. A second EU official also told reporters that the commission wants to do "something meaningful, but not harmful" to the market. Speaking earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "We should consider a price limitation in relation to the TTF in a way that continues to secure the supply of gas to Europe and to all Member States and that would demonstrate that the EU is not ready to pay whatever price for gas," according to Reuters. The commission also proposed Tuesday the setting up of a new benchmark for trading liquified natural gas (LNG). "The TTF is linked to pipeline gas prices, but it is not accurate as most countries use LNG," the second official said, adding that the idea is not to replace the current benchmark for natural gas but rather creating a new one that only takes into account LNG. The commission said this new benchmark should be in place next spring, when EU nations will be focused on bolstering their gas storage levels in time for the winter. EU heads of state are gathering in Brussels Thursday to discuss the new proposals. Critics have said the 27 member states are taking too long to address the energy crisis jointly. Supporters, however, argue that the EU has taken a number of meaningful steps since Russia's invasion of Ukraine to boost its energy security. The EU used to import about 40% of its natural gas from Russia; that number is now at around 7%.
The EU is considering shelling out 40 billion euros to quell energy inflation as supply shortages continue - The European Union is considering shelling out 40 billion euros, or $39.2 billion, to help households and companies amid soaring energy inflation, Bloomberg reported.That will come out of the bloc's existing cohesion funds, with 500 billion euros originally earmarked to shield households and businesses from the energy crisis. The new measure will allow small- and medium-size firms to access financial support, and it will help fund government programs to help consumers pay their energy bills. It's expected to be important this winter, when supply shortages could deplete most of Europe's fuel storage and drum up prices, experts say.The budget, which was expanded by 200 billion euros last week, faced concerns over the sustainability of EU debt. More debt could fuel recession risks, Reuters reported, which caused Germany to initially hold back support for the debt expansion.But the government needs to take action considering the pain high prices will bring, EU cohesion and reform chief Elisa Ferreira said at an event on Tuesday, in regards the new 40 billion euro spending measure."Cohesion policy is not the European crisis response instrument, but nevertheless we had to react when citizens were really struck … We could not ignore the difficulties member states, small and medium companies and families are facing with present energy prices," she said. Only a fifth of the existing funds have been spent so far, according to Reuters. EU leaders are set to discuss earmarking the additional 40 billion euros for combating energy inflation at a summit this week, where they'll also be reviewing other proposals to lessen the pain of rising energy prices.
EU Commission Is Pushing EU Countries to Accept Joint Gas Purchases, Just As It Did With COVID-19 Vaccines - That those vaccine purchases are now under investigation by EU Public Prosecutors doesn’t seem to matter. The Commission wants a direct role in EU Member States’ purchases of gas and, if possible, weapons. As winter fast approaches in the northern hemisphere, the European Commission is looking for a way to cushion the blow of the brutally self-destructive sanctions regime it itself played a large part in imposing on Europe’s largest energy provider, Russia. The Commission’s new plan will have the added bonus of further expanding its influence and power over economic policy and decision making in the EU.This is one of the perverse paradoxes of Europe’s current predicament: the weaker the EU becomes, the stronger the Commission’s role grows within it, and the more centralized and unaccountable the bloc’s decision making becomes. Now the Commission is trying to strong-arm EU Member States to accept joint purchases of gas for future gas storage. The ostensible goal of the plan is to secure better terms from energy suppliers as well as reduce the risk of EU countries outbidding each other for energy contracts. But it also represents yet another encroachment on member state sovereignty. As the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on Monday, if the plan is implemented, energy demand will be pooled through an EU energy platform operated by the Commission itself (machine translated): The Brussels authority is likely to present a corresponding draft law as early as Tuesday, together with other initiatives aimed at lowering the high [gas] prices. These include, for example, a price cap on an important gas trading center… The energy platform is intended to bundle the purchasing power of the EU Member States when they buy [natural gas] in 2023 and 2024 in order to refill the storage facilities before the heating season. The states should secure better prices in negotiations with producing countries instead of outbidding each other. Germany and the Netherlands are apparently already on board with the plan, though Germany has expressed reservations about the idea of capping gas prices. Berlin is concerned, quite rightly, that trying to cap the price of gas across the EU may leave the bloc struggling to attract sufficient supply from global markets, which is a problem they already face to the nth degree. Of course, the frantic fiddling of the European politicians and bureaucrats who set this crisis in motion and have steadfastly refused to reverse course even as the crippling economic costs have mounted, is unlikely to make much of a difference at this stage. As Yves noted yesterday in her preamble to the post, “Is the UK About to Hit the Wall?”, the European Commission is dithering with the fantasy of technocratic fixes, which is likely to result in disruptive, unplanned rationing in the form of blackouts. According to the article in Süddeutsche Zeitung, the Commission wants to compel member states by EU law to use the platform to fill at least 15% of the volume of their gas storage facilities: The fact that only around 15% of the demand will bundled is because there are already long-term contracts in place for a large share of the gas storage volumes. It is all about filling the remaining gaps and securing good deals along the way. There are a total of 160 underground storage facilities in the EU in 18 member states. Germany accounts for more than a fifth of the total capacity. Berlin had long expressed doubts as to whether joint purchases would work, but recently changed tack and called for the platform to be strengthened. This is happening now.And the Commission already has a model of sorts to fall back on — its €71 billion vaccine procurement program:As with the procurement of the COVID-19 vaccines, the commission would negotiate contracts with suppliers. The final decision as to whether to accept the offer or not would then be made by the individual governments. This is where the flaws of the plan become glaringly apparent. As I have reported for NC since December 2021 (here, here, here and here), the European Commission’s purchase of 4.6 billion COVID-19 vaccines has been beset by a litany of procedural irregularities and alleged misconduct. Last Friday (October 14), the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) announced it had launched an investigation into the purchases, citing the “extremely high public interest” in the matter as justification for taking the “exceptional” step of confirming the investigation on its website.
European Gas Falls as EU Leaders Unite to Back Crisis Measures - -- Natural gas in Europe declined after leaders came together to back urgent measures, including a price cap, to contain the energy crisis that’s engulfed the economy. Benchmark futures fell 11% on Friday, posting a third straight weekly loss. The politicians asked the European Commission to propose a “temporary dynamic price corridor,” and said they would pursue a framework to cap the price of gas in electricity generation. They also want to take steps to avoid extreme price spikes and use the EU’s joint purchasing power in negotiations with sellers. “We sent also a clear signal to the market,” European Council President Charles Michel said. “I’m confident that there will be an effect very soon.” The European Union presented the united front after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz yielded to pressure from other member states for a gas price cap. He had earlier warned such as limit could endanger supply at a time when the region needs all it can get. But countries including France, Italy and Poland had been pushing hard for a cap as dwindling Russian supplies bring the threat of shortages and blackouts. The bloc’s energy ministers will meet next week to continue trying to hash out the details of the various plans. French President Emmanuel Macron said the aim is to have explicit mechanisms laid out in the next two to three weeks. Dutch front-month gas, the European benchmark, settled at €113.58 per megawatt-hour, falling 20% in the week. The UK equivalent contract dropped 8.9% on Friday, while year-ahead German power fell 2.9%. Market’s Relief The outcome of the summit will bring some relief to markets, with gas prices still three times higher than the five-year average for this time of the year. They have eased more than 60% from their August peak, as Europe started the winter heating season with almost full reservoirs and strong liquefied natural gas flows. But traders will wait for more details about the design of the EU plan, especially as a price cap has previously remained elusive because of concerns it will encourage gas sellers to look elsewhere. There are other risks. Cold snaps and any disruption to existing supply from the US or Norway could drive prices much higher, said Nikoline Bromander, an analyst at Rystad Energy. Buyers in Asia are preparing for the winter by stepping up purchases of LNG, which Europe has heavily depended on to replace Russian fuel. For now, the weather remains mild and forecasts point to strongly above-normal temperatures across continental Europe next week.
Europe Praying for a Mild Winter and Friends in Far Flung Places -Europe prays for a mild winter and friends in far flung places, from the U.S. freeport facility to private Chinese companies that may be able to increase LNG exports to Europe during the heating season. That’s according to Rystad Energy Analyst Nikoline Bromander, who made the comment in a market note sent to Rigzone on Tuesday. “After a volatile few months, European natural gas prices have been falling through September and October and are currently at their lowest level since June 2022, reaching $40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on the Netherlands-based Title Transfer Facility (TTF) … [on 17 October],” Bromander said in the note. “Underground storage levels in Europe are continuing to build alongside policy efforts within the European Union to stabilize end-user prices. The European Commission (EC) is considering intervening in the market to increase stability and liquidity and ease the upwards pressure on the European gas market,” Bromander added. “Until then, with the gas withdrawal season approaching fast, market participants will be hoping to avoid any major supply outages and abnormally cold weather which would hit certain European nations, such as Germany, at the worst possible time. Asia and the U.S. are presently sitting comfortably when it comes to supply and storage levels, though this could change as winter approaches,” Bromander continued. In the note, Bromander highlighted that European gas demand has continued its year-on-year decline “following measures put in place by the EC and demand destruction”. “For the coming week, milder temperatures are expected across Continental Europe, which is expected to further depress demand for gas,” Bromander said, adding that falling demand is enabling Europe to build storage levels ahead of the winter withdrawal season. “European storage facilities are now 92 percent full, well ahead of the EU’s 1 November target, compared to 77 percent at the same time last year,” Bromander said in the note. In a separate market note sent to Rigzone earlier this month, Rystad Energy Vice President Emily McClain stated that, “with Europe’s winter season now in sight, gas markets are snug but by no means cozy”.“Global gas supply has tightened further following damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines last week. Europe’s gas market participants are now looking to storage injections to safeguard inventories through winter,” McClain stated in the note. “However, while European storage levels are shaping up nicely, an early or extended winter could yet send gas stocks sledding downward, pushing prices higher,” McClain warned.
France, Spain and Portugal strike deal to build new subsea gas pipeline - Spain, Portugal, and France have agreed to build a new subsea pipeline for the transportation of hydrogen and gas between Barcelona, Spain, and Marseille, France.The agreement for the Green Energy Corridor has been signed between Spanish President Pedro Sánchez, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa.Named BarMar, the proposed project would replace the plan to extend the MidCat pipeline to connect the Iberian Peninsula to the rest of Europe. France opposed the MidCat pipeline, saying that the project would take too long to complete and would not help in addressing short-term supply issues.
France begins to export gas to Germany --France is exporting natural gas to Germany for the first time as part of an energy solidarity agreement aimed at resolving the EU's largest economy's months-long supply issue.According to a statement issued on Thursday by French grid operator GRTgaz, the gas pipeline linking the two nations near the French border settlement of Obergailbach has begun pumping an initial daily volume of 31 gigatons. Based on statistics from the French Ministry of Energy Transition, the quantity is predicted to gradually climb to a daily maximum of 100 gigatons-hours, or less than 2% of Germany's total gas consumption.The single interconnector between France and Germany, located at Obergailbach, was originally built to transport gas to France, but the parties have completed the required alterations to reverse the flow.The nations inked an energy solidarity agreement last month, with France promising to assist Germany with its gas supply. In exchange, Germany is expected to assist France when necessary.“If we did not have European solidarity and an integrated, united market right now, we would have serious problems,” French Leader Emmanuel Macron stated.“This is a good and important sign of European solidarity,” German Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated, highlighted that “it shows that in a spirit of solidarity even difficult technical issues can be resolved.”
Pileup Of LNG Tankers Stranded Off Spain Coast - Spain has declared an “exceptional operational situation” as several dozen LNG tankers are stuck in line for its regasification terminals, significantly exceeding available slots, according to OilPrice.com. This week, Spain has made only six unloading slots available Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources, but there are more than 35 LNG carriers idling off its coast. The country has six LNG import and regasification terminals and is the biggest LNG importer in the EU. The tanker pileup highlights Europe’s problem with LNG import capacity that prompted Germany to urgently strike a deal for the construction of two floating facilities so it can receive LNG directly.The region has had to find alternative supplies, including LNG, but the arrival of multiple cargoes of the superchilled fuel has exposed Europe's lack of "regasification" capacity, as plants that convert the seaborne fuel back to gas are operating at maximum limit.If the backlog is not cleared soon those ships may start looking for alternative ports outside Europe to offload their cargo.Meanwhile, there is more LNG floating off the European coast, Reuters reported, citing more sources, suggesting the 35-strong tanker crowd off Spain is only part of the actual pile-up."Floating storage levels in LNG shipping is at all time high levels with slightly more than 2.5 million tonnes tied up in floating storage," Flex LNG Management chief executive Oystein Kalleklev told Reuters.An LNG analyst from ICIS confirmed to Reuters there were a lot of LNG carriers idling off the Spanish and UK coast and circling the Mediterranean. And while they do that, the gas they carry cannot be used or put into storage. According to ICIS’ Alex Froley, however, insufficient regasification capacity is not the only reason for the pile-up: prices for later deliveries of LNG in Europe are some $2 per mmBtu higher than current prices, which may have motivated some traders to keep their cargo on the water until late November or early December.
LNG Vessels Floating Offshore Europe Multiplying as Customers Stash Natural Gas Before Winter --An unprecedented number of LNG vessels are floating offshore Europe as regasification terminal congestion and whipsawing prices further complicate the supply situation. At least 22 ships loaded with liquefied natural gas had been moored on Wednesday for more than five days around European regasification hubs, according to data from Kpler. The majority of the ships were centered around the Mediterranean Sea (11) and the Spanish province of Cádiz (6). Kpler’s Charles Costerousse said the analytics firm had not seen this many LNG vessels floating around Europe since it began collecting data in 2018. “Bottlenecks at European terminals can happen, but it is relatively rare and is typically due to weather issues or maintenance, and certainly not at this level,” Costerousse said. The cause of the glut and how it may impact the destination of the cargoes “is quite tricky,” he said, since a vessel’s final destination and slot availability at terminals aren’t always known. However, the record volumes of LNG drawn to the continent could be causing “more congestion at ports likely due to slot unavailability.” Many of Europe’s existing LNG import terminals are in Spain and Portugal, where gas is transported north via pipeline. Germany and other countries previously dependent on Russian gas have been investing in floating terminals that could increase import capacity as soon as early 2023. Much of the gas currently floating offshore of Europe was procured from the United States, according to Kpler data, as Europe maintains its price premium over the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM). The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark for gas in Europe reversed its weeks-long decline Thursday. Prompt TTF contracts had previously fallen in price by 50% compared to the start of the month on reports of high European storage and mild forecast. Trading firm Energi Danmark wrote European gas could see a bullish return “on signs of lower wind output across Europe during the coming weeks.” The TTF price for gas in December closed Thursday at around $44/MMBtu, up from $39.273 on Wednesday.
China Halts Resales Of Russian LNG To European Buyers --A month and a half ago, we made a startling discovery: China was aggressively reselling LNG imports from Russia, the country's fourth-largest supplier of LNG so far in 2022 having surpassed both Indonesia and the US, to Europe and thanks to the continent's unprecedented desperation for gas, it was charging pretty much whatever markup it wanted.But maybe not any more.According to Bloomberg, Chinese state-owned energy giants have been recently told by authorities to stop reselling liquefied natural gas cargoes (certainly those from Russia) to gas-starved Europe, in what could be a blow to the European hopes of continuous high inflows of LNG as the winter approaches. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's top planning body, told the country’s state-held LNG importers including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, that they should stop reselling LNG cargoes and keep them to ensure Chinese gas supply this winter, Oilprice reported citing Bloomberg sources. In recent months, as we reported first in August, Chinese LNG importers have been selling their excess inventories to Europe and reaping substantial profits from the sales because of lackluster demand in China. Chinese domestic demand has been squashed by rolling waves of city-wide Covid lockdowns and a slowdown in economic growth.As a result, Chinese sales of LNG have been a relief to the European market so far this year. But as China now moves to cater to its own energy security this winter, Europe’s precarious LNG supply - much of which was a function of continued Chinese reselling of embargoed Russian gas - could dwindle just ahead of the winter heating season.Gas prices in Europe have dropped from record highs and hit on Monday the lowest level in three months after the EU was reportedly looking to introduce measures to limit the market volatility of the benchmark European natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub. According to a draft document that Bloomberg News has seen, the European Commission is set to propose measures to limit extreme price spikes in derivatives trading; it isn't exactly clear how Europe - which is desperately short any and all commodities heading into the winter - will actually enforce any price or volatility caps. European gas storage sites were 92% full as of October 16, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The storage sites were filled faster than the EU and many individual members had initially planned. Although gas in storage alone will not be enough to see an economy such as Germany’s through the winter, the faster-than-planned gas storage filling has eased somewhat supply concerns, for now. Also, as most industry watchers have realized, the big risk is not this winter but that of 2023.
Gazprom CEO Says All Nord Stream NatGas Could Be Redirected To Turkey - Russia's natural gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline system will likely not be restored and could be redirected in pipelines via the Black Sea to Turkey. Russian energy giant Gazprom PJSC CEO Alexei Miller told Russian television on Sunday that NatGas supplies via Nord Stream will be redirected to Turkey if the necessary infrastructure is constructed. He said, "You know, nothing's impossible": "We're talking about those volumes which we have lost thanks to the acts of international terrorism against the Nord Stream pipelines, so these can be significant volumes," Miller told Russian television, quoted by Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik. "I'd like to remind you that we have the experience of preparing for the implementation of the South Stream project, which was originally planned to have a capacity of 63 billion cubic meters [per year]. Therefore, if we're talking even about the technical documentation for the development of the route, for South Stream - all this was already done at one time," Miller continued.South Stream was a project that began construction in 2012 but was canceled in 2014 due to European sanctions and restrictions by Brussels. The $20 billion, 1,500-mile-long pipeline network would've been able to transit 63 billion cubic meters of NatGas per year via the Black Sea to Bulgaria. It was eventually replaced by TurkStream, which became operational in 2020.
Europe is running low on diesel when it needs it most - Europe's tanks are running low on diesel, making the market vulnerable to wild price volatility, with sanctions against Russia threatening to deliver the biggest supply shock in living memory in less than four months. Independent gasoil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region fell by 10pc in one week in early October. That undid a brief recovery in the region's stocks, compounding a 43pc decline in total Dutch diesel inventories in the year to July 2022. They were 33pc lower in July than in the same month of 2019. These statistics show the problem most starkly because ARA has outsized oil storage capacity, but the trend is the same everywhere. Germany had 10pc less diesel inventories in July than a year earlier and 7pc less than in the same month of 2019. The UK had 12pc less than a year earlier and 30pc less than in 2019. Overall middle distillate inventories in the 16 major European countries surveyed by Euroilstock were 11pc lower in September year on year and 13pc lower than in 2019. That figure includes kerosine, but mostly reflects diesel and gasoil. These volumes never get near zero, because of day to day operational needs. But the layer of discretionary inventories on top has been disappearing. This has been a key cause of high and volatile diesel prices. Without inventories, buyers cannot be flexible. They need to secure supply on a tight schedule to be sure of fulfilling their own contracts for onward sale. When prompt prices rise because of a supply disruption, buyers cannot wait for it to pass and pay whatever it takes. Traders said there is no incentive for most participants to build or even maintain these discretionary inventories, because of the enormous cost of doing so in such a steeply backwardated market. Backwardation — meaning prompt prices above those for later delivery — signals fundamental pressures on the market. For the past year, the backwardation has reflected the great cost and difficulty of refining diesel. The most efficient way to meet marginal demand has been to draw on inventories instead. Spiking natural gas prices in autumn 2021 created moderately steep backwardation because they raised refiners' energy costs and the cost of the hydrogen input to some key diesel production processes. Gas prices have soared in recent months. Emissions allowances have grown much more expensive for European refiners at the same time. And as gasoline became oversupplied in Europe in the summer, diesel buyers had to compensate refiners for the losses they were making on other products as they raised crude runs. This dynamic is likely to re-emerge over the winter. Available refining capacity has shrunk. A wave of wholesale decommissioning and conversion to bioprocessing during the pandemic was followed by fires, explosions and malfunctions this year as refiners tried to maximise middle distillate output under heatwave conditions. Most recently, French strikes have immobilised more than 5pc of Europe's refining capacity for four weeks. The inventory crunch is not universal. Some firms are known to be stockpiling, in spite of the high financial cost, because they perceive such a severe risk of supply disruption in the coming months. The two German refineries supplied with Russian crude through the northern leg of the Druzhba pipeline are examples of this. At the national level, European policymakers have dipped into strategic reserves several times already this year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) co-ordinated a multinational release to calm markets in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Then when refineries in Austria and Hungary shut down unexpectedly over the summer, the governments of both countries released some reserves. When strikes closed most of the French refining system in September and October, the government there did the same. But all the shocks that have prompted European reserve releases so far are smaller than the one coming this winter, when Europe will stop Russian imports by law. The more reserves that are used in the meantime, the less there will be to stabilise markets later.
Diesel Hits Chaos Mode - The world’s diesel market is once again flashing signs of chaos, undermining the global economy with a fresh bout of inflationary pressure. Powering trucks, trains and ships that drive industry, the fuel is commanding huge buy-it-now premiums in Europe. Beset by worker strikes over pay at French oil refineries that lasted over three weeks, the continent is struggling to be ready for a ban on imports from key supplier Russia that’s 3 1/2 months away. The US has the lowest seasonal inventories in data that began in 1982 going into winter. The chaos is the last thing Europe needs alongside sky-high energy prices, but there could be worse to come. Officials in the Biden administration have pressed fuel producers to curtail overseas exports and chastised them for low diesel stockpiles. “It’s extremely tight, end user stocks are extraordinarily low,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “I don’t know where resupply comes from. Diesel is the industrial product of the world, so it’s not going to help an already weakened economic environment.” At one point this week, traders were paying premiums of as much as $160 a ton -- more than $20 a barrel -- to obtain a physical barge-load of the road fuel in Europe. That’s a sign of tight inventories. It compares with $24 a ton a month earlier. In New York, the physical market is so tight that premiums surged there too. The market has been in a bullish backwardation trading pattern since last August. The structure means sellers are losing money when they hold onto supplies. The market often flips into contango -- the opposite of backwardation where future prices are higher -- in the middle of the year, incentivizing suppliers to build up inventory in the summer ahead of the harvest and heating season. Diesel is the engine of the global economy. It is used for transportation, heating and industrial processes, meaning that a rise in prices can lift everything from the price of heating a house to the cost of finished goods. “At a macroeconomic level, higher oil process increase inflation and reduce economic growth,” said Mark Williams, research director for short term oils at WoodMackenzie Ltd. “The rising costs of diesel fuel therefore impacts everybody, as diesel prices affect direct manufacturing, transportation and heating costs. As diesel prices rise, so do the costs of goods which in general are passed onto consumers.” The state of the market may ring alarm bells in Berlin, Paris -- and even Moscow. Even last month, Europe got two-fifths of its diesel imports from Russia. For its part, Russia continues sending about 80% of its shipments of the fuel to Europe. With a shortage of specialist ice-strengthened tankers that can export from Russia’s Baltic Sea ports in winter, there’s also a question about how easily the petroleum industry supply chain will be able to get those supplies to alternative markets. The market has been in various states of chaos ever since the invasion of Ukraine triggered uncertainty about what would happen to diesel flows. But with the EU ban -- a punishment for Vladimir Putin’s war -- getting ever closer, strikes in France were not what the market needed. The industrial action, which began in late September, got so bad that the French government has requisitioned striking workers to get fuel distributed. Almost a third of the country’s filling stations were facing shortages at one point this week. “We could easily end up with a squeeze into the winter.”
EU Plays Hardball With Serbia Over Its Russia Ties -Much like Ankara, Belgrade has tried to stay above the fray in the conflict between NATO and Russia. While Serbia doesn’t share the same geographic significance and isn’t a member of NATO like Turkey, it is one of Russia’s strongest allies in Europe, and is now receiving the same pressure to choose a side.Comments from European leaders describe how Serbia’s long-term goal of joining the EU is at risk due to its friendliness with Moscow.In the more immediate term, Belgrade is facing an economic fallout from newly restricted energy supplies, and the move risks inflaming tensions between longtime adversaries Croatia and Serbia and within Bosnia where both countries support ethnonationalist parties.The most recent round of EU sanctions prohibits the transport of Russian oil across Croatia to Serbia, one of the few European countries not to join the sanctions party against Moscow. FromEuractiv:Until recently, Serbia had hoped that Croatia’s pipeline operator JANAF would continue to ship Russian crude oil, brought to Croatia on oil tankers, to NIS, in line with an agreement signed in January. This came to an end with the latest sanctions agreement.In Prague for the inaugural meeting of the European Political Community, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic told reporters that Croatia had “already boasted and taken credit for the full ban on Russian oil transport.”Serbia has no outlets to the sea and will therefore be forced to pay much higher prices to import oil than they would have with its deal with Russia.“Croatia does not create our foreign policy,” Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said. “It is created by our citizens, through their democratically elected representatives.”The Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, meanwhile, said “Serbia cannot sit on two stools and expect progress on its European path while disrespecting sanctions against Russia.” Serbia is in a tough spot as the EU is its top trading partner while Russia comes in second. 63% of Serbia’s overall trade in 2019 was done with the European Union. Russia and China rank respectively on second and third places but at considerably lower trade levels – ten times lower than trade between Serbia and the EU, but Serbia has relied on Russian gas and oil imports.
Pipeline Carrying Russian Oil To Germany Repaired After Leak Detected In Poland - The Polish operator of the Druzhba oil pipeline said it had fixed a leak that had caused part of the pipeline from Russia to Germany to be shut. The operator, PERN, said in a statement on October 15 its technical services "restored the full functionality of the damaged line of the pipeline, which supplies crude oil to the company's German customers." "An investigation into the cause of the leak is ongoing," it added. The leak was detected on October 11 near the village of Zurawice in central Poland. The company had said earlier that preliminary checks indicated the leak was probably accidental. The German government said on October 12 that oil deliveries were continuing to two key refineries despite the leak. The discovery of the leak came amid security concerns over Europe's energy supplies after the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea recently sprang leaks that officials both in the West and Russia say were caused by sabotage. Europe also faces a severe energy crisis as a result of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which has cut supplies to many countries. The Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline network pumps oil from the Urals to Europe through a northern branch that runs through Poland and a southern branch that runs through Ukraine.
OPEC+ Made The Russian Oil Price Cap Strategy Very Risky -The idea of placing a cap on the price of Russian oil as a means of reducing the country’s oil revenues was first floated by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the spring. Since then, the idea has grown into a full-blown plan involving, besides the U.S., its partners from the G7 and the European Union. And it just got a lot riskier.Earlier this month, OPEC+ caused a stir in Washington by agreeing to reduce its oil production quota by 2 million bpd and its actual production by some 1 million bpd. Most of the cut would come from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, meaning the physical supply of oil would tighten globally.Oil prices rose on the news but quickly subsided on persistent concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth and the increasing likelihood of several large consumers suffering through a recession.In Washington, discussions of the Russian oil price cap have continued, but now some in the Biden administration are beginning to worry that it could backfire.Bloomberg reported on the worries of some White House officials last week, saying that after the OPEC+ production cut decision, volatility in the oil market had increased markedly, and a price cap on Russian crude could lead to a spike in prices rather than a decline.Another fear, and quite justified, is Russia making good on its warning that it could choose to stop selling oil to any country that has implemented a price cap on its oil. This would certainly lead to higher oil prices, with UBS estimating recently that the jump could see Brent hit $125 per barrel.“The Russians were clear: ‘If you force us to accept the price cap, we’re simply not going to deliver crude to you,” the head of UBS Global Wealth Management commodities Dominic Schnider told CNBC.According to Schnider, the cap could see global supply fall by another 1 million bpd as a result of the price cap, if it is indeed ever implemented, pushing crude well above $100 per barrel. The spokeswoman of the National Security Council, Adrienne Watson, told Bloomberg the news that some in the White House had serious misgivings about the oil price cap was “false.”She went on to say that the administration team “are full steam ahead on implementing a price cap on Russian oil with strong support from the G-7 and other partners. It is the most effective way to ensure that oil continues to flow into the market at lower prices and supply meets demand.” Yet, it has been clear from the beginning that the G7 alone could not really make a price cap work, chiefly because they have already banned imports of Russian oil. So it was essential to get consumers such as China and India on board, which has so far proved tricky.Indeed, India’s The Hindu reported this month, quoting Janet Yellen, that there were no attempts to convince other countries outside the G7-EU coalition to join the price cap. This happened just a couple of months after Yellen went on a tour in Asia that was partially designed to convince India and China to join the capIn addition to the quite real danger of further supply shocks, there are other challenges for the price cap as conceived, including the exact way of implementing it in a world with shipping transport rules that offer a range of ways to circumvent such caps.“It is very optimistic to believe this [price cap] can work,” Ben McWilliams, an energy analyst at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel told Euronews this month.“In fact, I don’t believe even the architects think it will work perfectly. They just prefer a ‘leaky system’ in which Russia can still make some profit above the cap rather than a scenario in which Russia is completely forced off market.”
Russia Removes Exxon From Major Oil And Gas Project - Russia has removed Exxon as a shareholder from the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project and transferred its stake to a Russian business entity.Exxon said this amounted to expropriation and that it had pulled out from Russia as a whole, the Wall Street Journal reported.Exxon had a 30-percent stake in Sakhalin-1 but a week ago President Vladimir Putin signed a decree with which a new entity was set up to manage the operations of the Far East oil and gas project. The decree allowed the Russian government to distribute the stakes in the project and kick out foreign partners if they saw fit.Exxon was on its way out anyway, however. Shortly after Russian troops entered Ukraine in February, Exxon said it was going to pull out from Russia and make no more investments there.In April, the U.S. supermajor declared force majeure at the Sakhalin project, cutting output from some 220,000 bpd to just 10,000. Production was also affectedby Exxon’s refusal to accept local insurance coverage for the tankers transporting the crude from Sakhalin Island.Meanwhile, Reuters reported yesterday that India’s ONGC was considering taking a stake in the new entity operating Sakhalin-1. The Indian state oil major was a shareholder in the consortium running Sakhalin-1 before Exxon’s pullout and wanted to retain its interest in the project, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources."ONGC Videsh will protect its share in the project, which means it will take a stake in the new entity," one of the sources said.The Sakhalin-1 project is also important for Japan. Despite a sanction drive among its Western partners, Japan has stated it could not afford to stop buying oil and gas from the Sakhalin development. Two Japanese companies are also shareholders in Sakhalin-1 and have been offered to retain their stakes in the new entity, managed by a subsidiary of Rosneft.
Middle East imports more Russian gasoil in September -Gasoil inflows from Russia to the Middle East have increased substantially as Russian diesel and gasoil exports to northwest Europe were falling as term contracts expired. At 268,000t, September gasoil imports from Russia were significantly higher from 145,000t in August. The UAE was the main importer with 198,000t, followed by Yemen taking 38,000t and Iraq 26,000t, according to Vortexa. Firms that are still buying Russian volumes on term contracts are slowly phasing out purchases, in preparation for the EU's ban on Russian oil products from January. A halt in oil products from Russia is forcing European buyers to seek higher volumes from the Mideast Gulf, India and the US, in order to meet demand. The Middle East remained a major outlet for Russian oil products in September, despite cargo arrivals falling from a record monthly high of 1.4mn t in August. The total volume of product cargoes, including gasoline, naphtha, gasoil and fuel oil, declined to 1.06mn t last month. But imports are still significantly higher than 250,000-450,000t of products that the Middle East typically received before the armed conflict with Ukraine started in February. The quickly-formed surplus of Russian products, formed as international sanctions and restrictions started to squeeze deliveries to traditional buyers in Europe and the US, forced Russia to find alternative consumption markets and sell cargoes at significant discounts to benchmark prices. "Russia has a limited storage capacity for its product surplus and is forced to sell on the cheap", a trader said. "Discounts are steep enough for buyers to make profit, despite long journeys, especially from the ports in the Baltic to the Middle East."
China's Oil Imports Soar As Beijing Prepares To Supply European Fuel Demand - Crude oil imports into Asia jumped in September. Normally such news would spark hope for demand and, consequently, prices, but this time it’s more complicated. And it has less to do with Asian demand than demand in Europe. Oil imports in Asia rose by more than 2 million barrels daily last month, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported in his latest column, noting that the bulk went to China and Singapore. He then went on to point out that both China and Singapore had gone through refinery maintenance in August and utilization rates were up in September. On the one hand, it’s the normal preparation for winter. On the other, the EU has an embargo on Russian crude coming into effect in less than two months and then an embargo on fuels two months after that.Europe is already grappling with a diesel shortage as it shuns Russian fuels ahead of the embargo and as the global supply of the fuel remains limited. This has contributed to fears of demand destruction by excessive prices, but it has also reinforced fears of a recession due to the fuel crunch.The U.S. could maybe increase its fuel shipments to Europe, according to executives from major commodity trading houses quoted in a recent report by Energy Intelligence, especially since Russian fuels will be rerouted to other destinations, including Asia and South America, satisfying some of the demand there. And some of these Russian fuels will go to Europe but come from China.It is a somewhat ironic twist in the Europe-Russia story that Russian oil will not literally stop flowing into Europe, whatever Europe does to stop that flow, even if it is willing to pay a steep price for it. As already evidenced by fuel flows from India to Europe, the latter has no problem with Russian refined products as long as they don’t come from Russia itself.This will likely continue happening because whatever geopolitical games are being played, physical demand for oil products is likely to remain robust until prices become prohibitive. Even then, demand destruction will not happen overnight. A case in point is France, where strikes have paralyzed more than half of the country’s refining capacity, and yet people are queuing to fill up their tanks.It is a double irony that the European Union might need to rely on China for its winter fuel supplies. After all, following the example of the U.S., the EU has also spoken against China’s rising domination of various global markets. It is not seen as a friend in Europe. Yet it is a vital supplier of commodities without which the EU will collapse.
Govt in talks for long-term Namibian crude contracts -India, the world’s third biggest oil importer, is looking to secure a long-term crude oil supply deal from Namibia, which is being hailed for one of the world’s largest oil finds in recent years, said two people aware of the development. This is part of India’s aggressive energy-sourcing diversification playbook. India’s plan of charting new geography to meet its energy needs comes against the backdrop of French energy majors TotalEnergies and Shell Plc making “giant" oil discoveries. India has been trying to diversify its energy supplies with Indian Oil Corp. recently signing a long-term contract to procure crude oil from Colombia’s state-run Ecopetrol SA and Brazil’s state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras). “There has been a huge find in Namibia in February this year. We get some oil from Namibia but not in a large quantity. This is a long-term contract that we are looking for as it sequesters us from the vagaries of the global energy markets," said a senior Indian government official, one of the two people mentioned above, requesting anonymity. TotalEnergies is the operator with a 40% working interest in Block 2913B that covers around 8,215 sq km in Namibia’s deep offshore. The other partners are QatarEnergy (30%), Impact Oil and Gas (20%), and state-run National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia or NAMCOR (10%). With 45% working interest, Shell is the operator of PEL 0039 that covers around 12,000 sq km in Namibian deep offshore and has QatarEnergy (45%) and NAMCOR (10%) as partners. The Namibian discoveries may contain recoverable reserves of around 6.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, according to the research firm Wood Mackenzie.
Oil theft: Sept crude oil production drops by 24.73% - NIGERIA’S crude oil production crashed by 24.73 percent in September 2022 to 937,766 barrels per day, compared to 1.246 million barrels per day recorded over the corresponding month in 2021, the latest data from the Federal Government has shown. According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, crude and condensate production for September 2022 was 1.137 million barrels per day, compared to 1.179 million barrels produced in August 2022. Condensate productions are not part of Nigeria’s quota set by OPEC at 1.8 million barrels per day. NUPRC data showed that the highest production in September came from Qua Iboe at 4.976 million barrels followed by Escravos at 3.272 million barrels during the month. With the country battling to curb the activities of oil thieves and pipeline vandals that have crippled its oil industry, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, Mr. Mele Kyari has explained that what is stolen is not the difference between OPEC quota and the production figure. Kyari disclosed that all major oil trunk lines have been shut down due to the activities of oil thieves and pipeline vandals. “Today our production is around 1.23 million barrels per day. We have a proven production capacity of 2.49mbpd. But since Covid abated and the acts of vandals returned, we saw this gradual decline in our production to the point of 1.2mbpd. “That means we can easily produce 2.49mbpd but we can’t do it because of acts of vandals. Now it doesn’t mean that the difference between 2.49m and 1.23m is stolen. As we speak, all our major trunk lines are shut down, which means we are not flowing crude oil in these lines. We could do it and it doesn’t mean crude is stolen. When the lines are running, you can lose a substantial part of that volume up to 200,000 barrels.
Nigeria Discovers Fresh Illegal Oil Pipeline with 400,000 bpd in Niger Delta - The oil theft crisis that has greatly sabotaged Nigeria’s economy by drastically reducing revenue generation keeps unraveling. Illegal oil pipelines serving as conduit to oil thieves have been uncovered recently, yet more are unfolding. During the week, Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, a private security company owned by famous Niger Delta ex-militia leader, Government Ekpemupolo aka Tompolo, which was contracted by the federal government of Nigeria to secure the pipelines, said it has discovered more massive illegal crude oil pipelines attached to Trans Forcados Export Trunkline. Reports said the newly discovered illegal pipeline was connected to the 48-inch Trans Forcados Export Trunkline in Burutu Local Government Area. The discoveries are coming weeks after the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited disclosed that “a 4-kilometer pipeline from the Forcados export terminal has been used to steal oil for nine years, resulting in the theft of hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil per day.” The illegal four-kilometer crude oil pipeline, which is said to belong to Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), appears to have triggered the discovery of bigger points of stealing. The oil theft, which has reduced Nigeria’s oil production output by nearly half, is believed to have been aided by Nigerian security agents. The newly discovered illegal plug point is reportedly located directly behind a military security post and it is less than a kilometer to the Forcados Export Terminal in Ogulagha community. The report said the illegal pipeline was linked to another abandoned pipeline riser located within the vicinity and owned by AGIP Petroleum Company Ltd. According to the discovery, the oil thieves have been using the abandoned AGIP facility to ferry condensed crude oil to the sea for export. Though the federal government’s decision to engage Tompolo’s Tantita Security Services in a multi-billion naira contract to secure the oil pipelines has been questioned, as he is believed to be part of the problem, it has been yielding unusual results. Last week, the company apprehended a vessel named MT Deima with International Maritime Organization with number 7210525, while it was loading crude oil illegally along the Escravos River in Delta State. The arrested vessel was handed over to the security operatives under the Operation Delta Safe Joint Task Force, who didn’t spare more time before they set it ablaze. The newly discovered point of stealing, the Forcados Terminal located in Ogulagha, Burutu Local Government Area, is the largest so far. It is said to have a nameplate capacity to export 400,000 barrels per day. It receives crude oil from the Forcados Oil Pipeline System, which is the second largest pipeline network in the oil-producing region, after the Bonny Oil Pipeline System in the Eastern Niger Delta.
Algeria and OPEC endorse cut in oil production – Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines, Mohamed Arkab, and OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais have endorsed the cut in oil production agreed this month by the OPEC+ alliance, Anadolu has reported. Arkab met Al-Ghais in Algiers on Sunday and discussed the international oil market as well as the development prospects in the short and medium term, in the face of uncertainties that have affected the global oil market for several weeks now, explained the ministry. "They expressed their full confidence in the positive impact of the recent production cut agreement." The OPEC+ alliance announced on 5 October a reduction in oil production by 2 million barrels per day, starting as soon as 1 November. The endorsement of the cut by Algeria and OPEC follows severe US criticism of Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC, which Washington accused of siding with Russia in its war against Ukraine and of coercing some other nations into supporting the move. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, however, denied that the decision had any political connotations. "It was," he insisted, "purely economic."
OPEC+ Insists Its Production Cut Was Not Political - Multiple OPEC+ producers defended the group’s decision to reduce production in November in a wave of statements on Sunday and Monday, in what looked like a coordinated response to U.S. criticism of the cut.The United States said last week there would be some consequences for Saudi Arabia for its decision together with Russia to steer OPEC+ into a large oil production cut after OPEC+ endorsed earlier this month a decision to reduce the headline production target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) as of November.A day after U.S. President Joe Biden threatened “there will be consequences” for OPEC+’s decision, Saudi Arabia came out with a statement that expressed “its total rejection” of Biden’s and other statements from Washington with regard to the decision.“This decision was taken unanimously by all member states of the OPEC+ group,” a statement from Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said last week.Other OPEC+ producers, including the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Algeria also issued statements on Sunday and Monday, in which officials defended the cut as necessary for the market and reiterated the decision taken by the group was unanimous. On Sunday, Iraq’s state oil marketing company, SOMO, said in a statement carried by Reuters, “There is complete consensus among OPEC+ countries that the best approach in dealing with the oil market conditions during the current period of uncertainty and lack of clarity is a pre-emptive approach that supports market stability and provides the future the guidance it needs.”The UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei wrote on Twitter on Sunday, “I would like to clarify that the latest OPEC+ decision, which was unanimously approved was a pure technical decision, with NO political intentions whatsoever.”Algeria’s Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab told Reuters in a statement the decision was “a purely technical response based on purely economic considerations.”
OPEC Members Line Up To Back Oil Production Cut After US Claims Against Saudi Arabia - OPEC+ member states lined up on Oct. 16 to endorse a steep production cut agreed upon this month following accusations from top Biden administration officials against the Saudi government. Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC, said the move was based on economic indicators and done unanimously.“There is complete consensus among OPEC+ countries that the best approach in dealing with the oil market conditions during the current period of uncertainty and lack of clarity is a pre-emptive approach that supports market stability and provides the future the guidance it needs,” Iraq’s state oil agency said in a statement.Oman and Bahrain also said in separate statements that OPEC+ had been unanimous in deciding on the 2 million barrels per day reduction several weeks ago. Algeria’s energy minister called the Oct. 5 decision “historic,” and he and OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, currently visiting Algeria, expressed their full confidence in it, Algeria’s Ennahar TV reported.Those statements came after White House and Pentagon spokesman John Kirby accused Riyadh of pushing other countries into making the oil production cut during the last OPEC meeting.“The Saudi foreign ministry can try to spin or deflect, but the facts are simple. The world is rallying behind Ukraine in combating Russian aggression,” Kirby said in a statement last week, claiming that “more than one” member of OPEC+ disagreed with the oil production cut. He didn’t provide examples, however.But the Saudi kingdom rejected those allegations, saying that those statements “are not based on facts” and that it had made its decision “purely on economic considerations.”
Oil prices steady as recession fears counter positive Chinese signals Oil prices were steady on Monday as China's continuation of loose monetary policy was offset by fears that high inflation and energy costs could drag the global economy into recession. Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $91.80 a barrel by 0915 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.67 a barrel, up 6 cents, or 0.1%, after a 7.6% decline last week. China's central bank rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans on Monday while keeping the interest rate unchanged for a second month, in a signal that the central bank would continue to maintain loose monetary policy. Beijing would also greatly increase domestic energy supply capacity and step up risk controls in key commodities including coal, oil and gas, and electricity, a senior National Energy Administration official said on Monday. China will further increase reserve capacities for key commodities, another state official told a news conference in Beijing. Oil found support from a combination of factors, including Chinese President Xi Jinping's comments at the Party Congress that reassured accommodative policies for the economy, a positive sign for demand outlook, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. China is expected to release trade and economic data this week, with third-quarter GDP growth possibly set to rebound from the previous quarter, but 2022 threatening to be China's worst performing year in almost half a century. Meanwhile a strong U.S. dollar and further interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve limit price gains. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday inflation had become "pernicious" and difficult to arrest, and warranted continued "frontloading" through larger rate increases of three-quarters of a percentage point. Inflation in the United States remains stubborn and growth in European Union countries is due to weaken to half a percent, Gita Gopinath, a senior official at the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. Oil supply is due to remain tight after OPEC and allies like Russia pledged on Oct. 5 to cut output by 2 million barrels per day, as a war of words between OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia and the United States could foreshadow more volatility.
Oil Futures Finished Lower on Monday in What Was a Volatile Trading Session Oil futures finished lower on Monday in what was a volatile trading session. Oil prices were moved by fears that high inflation and energy cost could drag the global economy into recession, offsetting China’s continuation of loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation remains a hot topic and with the U.S. Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates at least into next year, there are fears that demand destruction will escalate. Chinese trade and third-quarter GDP data, along with September activity data, are due to be released on Tuesday, with quarterly growth possibly rebounding from the previous quarter but annual growth threatening to be China's worst in almost half a century. Oil supply is likely to remain tight after OPEC and allies including Russia pledged on Oct. 5 to cut output by 2 million barrels per day while a war of words between OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia and the United States could foreshadow more volatility. November delivery lost 15 cents per barrel, or 0.18% to $85.46. Brent for December delivery lost one cent per barrel, or 0.01% to $91.62. Petroleum products finished mixed, with RBOB Gasoline for November. delivery losing 3.78 cents per gallon, or 1.44% to $2.5931 and heating oil for November delivery gaining 10.50 cents per gallon, or 2.64% to $4.0852. OPEC+ member states endorsed the steep cut to its output target agreed this month after the White House accused Saudi Arabia of coercing some other nations into supporting the move. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz said the kingdom was working hard to support stability and balance in oil markets, including establishing and maintaining agreement of the OPEC+ alliance. Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister and King Salman's son, Prince Khalid bin Salman, also said the decision to reduce output by 2 million bpd was unanimous and based on economic factors. His comments were backed by ministers of several OPEC+ member states including the United Arab Emirates. The UAE’s Energy Minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, wrote on Twitter: "I would like to clarify that the latest OPEC+ decision, which was unanimously approved, was a pure technical decision, with no political intentions whatsoever." Meanwhile, Iraq’s SOMO said "There is complete consensus among OPEC+ countries that the best approach in dealing with the oil market conditions during the current period of uncertainty and lack of clarity is a pre-emptive approach that supports market stability and provides the guidance needed for the future." Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Chief Executive, Nawaf Saud al-Sabah, also welcomed the decision by OPEC+ and said the country was keen to maintain a balanced oil market. Oman and Bahrain said in separate statements that OPEC had agreed unanimously on the reduction. Algerian Energy Minister, Mohamed Arkab, called the decision "historic" and said that he and OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais expressed full confidence in it. The OPEC Secretary General later told a news conference that the organization targeted a balance between supply and demand rather than a specific price. According to the EIA, U.S. total shale regions oil production for November is seen increasing by 103,000 bpd to 9.104 million bpd compared with an increase of 127,000 bpd in October. Energy Aspect analyst, Amrita Sen, said the oil market is worried that further releases from the SPR could add pressure to prices. She said that the Biden administration could release another 100 million barrels. She also noted the SPR was not intended to relieve price pressures and is instead meant to address emergency supply constraints.
Oil Futures Mixed as Biden Eyes Another Release From SPR - New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange moved mixed early Tuesday following reports suggesting the Biden administration is planning to release another 10 million to 15 million barrels (bbl) from U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves to offset a large production cut announced by OPEC+ earlier this month that is seen further tightening market fundamentals. Additionally, concerns over the health of the global economy and subsequent demand destruction across major economies in Europe, Asia, and North America have further weighed on the oil complex. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday morning the Biden administration is considering a new sale of emergency crude oil from the nation's reserves to keep gasoline prices depressed ahead of midterm elections in November. The release would be an extension of the 180 million bbl drawdown program that started in the spring. According to people familiar with the decision, the White House is now considering how to replenish commercial stockpiles and whether to limit oil exports. The potential sale would come 14 days after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries together with Russia-led partners agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November. According to various reports, the Saudi-led coalition defied calls from the Biden administration to not reduce oil production ahead of an EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil exports and G7 price cap on Russian energy sales that is expected to go into effect on Dec. 5. Russian officials have repeatedly warned that Moscow would halt all energy exports to any country that participates in a price scheme.. For their part, OPEC+ officials defended the decision to cut oil production by 2 million bpd next month as a preemptive measure to counter accelerated demand destruction in some of the world's largest economies. IMF forecast economies representing more than a third of global output will likely contract next year, while the world's three largest economies -- the United States, European Union, and China -- will essentially stall. Overall, IMF projects 2.7% growth in 2023, down from 3.2% this year. Separately, the British government led by Liz Truss made a massive budget U-turn on Monday after appointing a new finance minister Jeremy Hunt, which included a reversal of her flagship tax cuts along with capping an energy price guarantee for UK households by a year to April 2023. The British pound rallied, the euro jumped 1.24% against the U.S. dollar, while the greenback retreated below the key 112-level on Monday after Hunt erased most of the 45-billion pound "mini-budget" on Monday, sparking a rally in U.S. and UK bond markets. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX November West Texas Intermediate futures traded little changed near $85.50 bbl, and ICE December Brent futures edged higher to $91.80 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures advanced 3.62 cents to $4.1214 gallon, and November RBOB futures declined 1.29 cents to $2.5802 gallon.
Oil prices settle lower on U.S. supply, lower China demand - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday on fears of higher U.S. supply combined with an economic slowdown and lower Chinese fuel demand. Brent crude futures settled down $1.59, or 1.7%, to $90.03 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down $2.64, or 3.1%, to $82.82 per barrel. China, the world's top crude oil importer, indefinitely delayed release of economic indicators originally scheduled to be published on Tuesday, indicating to the market that fuel demand is significantly depressed in the region. "It's not a good sign when China decides not to publish economic figures," . China's adherence to its zero-COVID policy has continued to increase uncertainties about the country's economic growth, . Oil prices were also pressured by reports that the U.S. government would continue releasing crude oil from reserves. The Biden administration plans to sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to cool fuel prices before next month's congressional elections, sources told Reuters on Monday. In addition, U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have risen for a second consecutive week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Output in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is forecast to rise by about 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.453 million bpd this month, the Energy Information Administration said. Investors had been increasing long positions in futures after OPEC+ agreed to lower output by 2 million barrels per day, ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Several members of the oil producer group have endorsed the cut after the White House accused Saudi Arabia of coercing some nations into supporting the move, a charge Riyadh denies.
WTI Holds Biden-SPR-Release Losses After API Data Shows Small Crude Draw - Oil prices were lower on the day on reports that the US is planning additional releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude in response to OPEC+ cuts and OPEC+ defending its cuts due to teh growing risk of a global recession.."Transferring SPR crude oil from emergency reserves to commercial tanks now would likely not help in lowering retail gasoline prices, or do so only marginally," "Such a policy does not make sense."And for now we will keep an eye on inventory levels for signs of demand problems. API:
- Crude -1.26mm:
- Cushing +890k
- Gasoline -2.17mm
- Distillates -1.09mm
After last week's huge crude build, API reported a very small crude draw this week (and products also saw drawdowns)...WTI was hovering around $82.50 ahead of the API data and drifted very modestly higher after the small crude draw... Shortly after the close, CNBC reported that 'sources' confirmed President Biden will announce yet more releases from the SPR tomorrow.Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration is moving toward a release of at least another 10 million to 15 million barrels of oil from the SPR. That will take the SPR to even more record-er lows in terms of supply. The bigger drivers lowering U.S. gasoline prices, however, were "sharply lower demand from China amid its zero-COVID policy that has stymied economic activity, and reduced transportation demand as millions of citizens were either locked down or had other restrictions reduce their mobility," DTN's Milne said."Domestically, climbing inflation, including high gasoline prices, has led consumers to reduce their driving."The problem is "not a lack of crude oil but a lack of refining capacity," said Milne.
Oil prices rise in tight market as US sets release of more reserves -Oil prices rose on Wednesday as caution over tightening supply countered the negative impact of uncertain Chinese demand growth and news that the United States will release more crude from its reserves. Brent crude futures for December settlement were up $1.54, or 1.6%, to $91.56 a barrel by 12:47 p.m. EDT (1647 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for November, that is expiring on Thursday, was at $84.55 a barrel, up $1.73, or 2.1%. In the previous session, the benchmarks hit a two-week low on reports that U.S. President Joe Biden plans to release 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Biden is set to speak at 1:15 p.m. EDT (1715 GMT) on efforts to lower fuel costs in the United States, which have dropped over the last two weeks but remain higher than a month ago. U.S. crude inventories fell unexpectedly last week - down 1.7 million barrels, weekly government showed, against expectations for a build of 1.4 million barrels. SPR levels fell 3.6 million barrels to just over 405 million, the lowest since May 1984. [EIA/S] Meanwhile, U.S. refiners were still operating at higher rates than usual for this time of year, running at 89.5% of capacity. "Oil is taking it as a positive as we got a surprise drawdown even with another SPR release," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "Refinery runs came in stronger than anticipated. Supplies are still dangerously tight which should give us some support." A pending European Union ban on Russian crude and oil products and the output cut from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, of 2 million barrels per day also supported prices. The EU's sanctions on Russian crude takes effect in December, and sanctions on oil products will take effect in February. "Prices need to rise above $100 a barrel in the coming months to slow demand growth and restore the supply-demand balance, in our view, given that oil inventories stand at a multi-year low," said UBS analysts in a note. China this week postponed the release of some key economic data, a highly unusual move that stoked fears of weak growth. There were also some signs of resurgent Chinese oil demand, including private mega refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp (ZPC) and state-run ChemChina receiving further import quotas.
The Market Reacted to a Report from the Energy Information Administration - Oil futures climbed on Wednesday, with U.S. prices up by more than 3%. The oil market rebounded as the tug-of-war between concerns over supply and fears over demand continue the back-and-forth price action that has been a feature of the past few weeks. The market reacted to a report from the Energy Information Administration, which showed weekly declines in both domestic crude and gasoline supplies, while President Joe Biden has announced the release of 15 million barrels of crude from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve - to complete the 180 million barrel release announced in the spring. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose $2.73, or 3.3%, to settle at $85.55 a barrel. The contract expires at the end of Thursday's trading session. Brent crude futures for December settlement LCOc1 ended up $2.38, or 2.6%, to $92.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI)
Oil Rises as Biden’s Energy Remarks Fail to Pacify Markets -- Oil rose as traders shrugged off President Joe Biden’s remarks about taming energy prices. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 3.3% to settle above $85 a barrel. In a speech on Wednesday, Biden confirmed the US is releasing 15 million barrels from the nation’s strategic reserve but didn’t announce any other steps that might pull back prices, such as plans to curb fuel exports.. “Biden did not ban product exports which was something many in the market have been worried about.” Prices have traded within a narrow band since late-September amid fluctuating risk sentiment in broader markets. The mixed picture is evident in the futures curve: While key timespreads are indicating supply restraints, several gauges have softened to the weakest levels since late September. For now, the market is caught between bullish OPEC+ production cuts and a major slowdown in global growth that’s weighed on prices. Meanwhile, forthcoming European Union sanctions on Russian oil exports could send shockwaves through the global tanker market, and have already caused some Indian refiners to halt spot purchases before the latest sanctions take effect early December. “Liquidity and risk deployment is low and investor positioning has been subdued,” “Global inventories remain tight, but the global macro backdrop is arguably the weakest in a decade.” US crude stockpiles dropped 1.73 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Four-week seasonal demand for distillate fuels soared to the highest since 2007 while inventories remain the lowest point on record for this time of year.
Oil Prices Climb As China Signals An Easing Of Covid Restrictions -Oil prices rose early on Thursday after China signaled an easing of its strict Covid policy, which has battered market sentiment in recent months. As of 6:46 a.m. ET on Thursday, WTI Crude prices were rising by 1.67% at $86.98, and the international benchmark, Brent Crude, was up 1.41% to trade at $93.72.China’s strict Covid measures could be partially eased, which could be supportive of oil prices.The Chinese city of Xi’an, for example, home to more than 13 million residents, has said it would implement Covid control measures only in risk areas instead of city-wide “static management”, CN Wire reported on Thursday, citing the city’s health authorities. Just this past Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled that the country’s zero-Covid policy would remain in place for the time being.Yet, officials in China are discussing the idea of reducing the mandatory quarantine for travelers into China to seven from 10 days, Bloomberg News reported today, quoting sources with knowledge of the discussions. The zero-Covid policy is not only isolating China from the rest of the world, but it weighs on market sentiment in the whole commodity complex, considering the fact that China is the world’s largest consumer of raw materials and the biggest importer of crude oil.Early on Thursday, oil prices were up despite the announcement of more SPR releases coming, as there are concerns that the strategic reserves for emergencies are estimated to now contain oil for only 22 days of consumption in case of an actual emergency.Prices were also pushed higher on Thursday by Wednesday’s weekly U.S. oil inventory report by the EIA, which showed a decline of 1.7 million barrels in crude oil, a small draw in gasoline stocks, and a slight increase in distillates.Commenting on the weekly data, analysts at Saxo Bank noted on Thursday that “Four-week seasonal demand for distillate fuels soared to the highest since 2007 while inventories remained at the lowest point on record for this time of year.” Despite the small increase of 124,000 barrels in distillate stocks, which include diesel, “there are still concerns going into winter over distillate inventories as they are at their lowest levels in at least 25 years for this time of year,” ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Thursday.
Oil Futures Ended on a Mixed Note Thursday -Oil futures ended on a mixed note Thursday, with the November U.S. benchmark contract ending higher on its expiration day, but the December contract little changed. Oil found some support from reports that China is looking to cut the duration of quarantine for inbound visitors, in a sign that perhaps the government might be looking to try and mitigate some of the worst effects of its zero-COVID policy. The reality is it's unlikely to make much difference given that as the weather gets colder, COVID infection rates are only likely to increase. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 43 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $85.98 a barrel. The December WTI contract, which is the new front-month contract as of the close, settled at $84.51, down by a penny for the session. Brent Crude for December delivery lost three cents per barrel, or 0.03% to $92.38. RBOB Gasoline for November delivery lost 0.44 cent per gallon, or 0.17% to $2.6478, while heating oil for November delivery lost 14.75 cents per gallon, or 3.78% to settle at $3.7568. Technical Analysis: WTI rallied early in the session on Thursday as it tried to pull away from the 10 and 50-day moving averages. As of now, the December contract is trending within a symmetrical triangle, which carries with it a period of sideways trading. Traders are still grappling with recent production cuts by OPEC+ and slackening demand set for by fears of a global economic slowdown. Feelings on these two fronts have traders flip-flopping, making it difficult to form sizeable positions. Until a definitive direction on this market can be decided on, we expect to see continued sideways trading. Resistance is seen at $86.97, $87.43 and above that at $90. Support is seen at $85, $82, and $81.30. Fundamental News: Citi Research said the SPR sales help rebalance the oil market, with more to come. It said coordinated SPR releases and especially U.S. SPR releases have been meaningful for easing prices. The EPA reported that the U.S. generated 501 million biodiesel blending credits in September, up from 453 million in August. It also reported that the U.S. generated 1.13 billion ethanol blending credits in September, down from 1.27 billion in August. A CGT union representative said workers at TotalEnergies ended their strikes at all but two sites in France on Thursday, adding that morning staff at the Normandy and Feyzin refineries were the only ones to continue the stoppage. While roughly one in five petrol stations in France is still grappling with shortages, supplies have been improving after the government increased imports and requisitioned some staff following almost four weeks of disruption. Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 61 shipments on Line 2, its main distillate line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina.
Oil near flat as inflation concerns contend with China's quarantine ease - Oil prices were near flat on Friday, as market participants weighed concerns about steep inflation with optimism that China could see energy demand tick up.Brent crude futures lost 5 cents to trade at $92.33 a barrel by 00:02 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 7 cents to trade at $84.58 a barrel.Brent was on track for a weekly gain of 0.7%, while WTI was expected to fall 1.3%.To fight inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to slow the economy and will keep raising its short-term rate target, said Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker on Thursday.Meanwhile, Beijing is considering cutting the quarantine period for visitors to seven days from 10 days, Bloomberg news reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.China, the world's largest crude importer, has stuck to strict COVID-19 curbs this year, which weighed heavily on business and economic activity, lowering demand for fuel.A looming European Union ban on Russian crude and oil products, as well as the output cut from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, have supported prices recently. OPEC+ agreed on a production cut of 2 million barrels per day in early October.
Oil, Stocks Gain on Reports FOMC Mulls Slowing Rate Hikes -- With the U.S. dollar falling sharply in afternoon trading Friday, oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced in step with a soaring stock market. The gains came after the Wall Street Journal reported some Federal Reserve officials are considering slowing the pace of rate hikes toward the end of year to reassess the impact of tightening monetary policy on the broader economy. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise federal funds rates by another 0.75% at their Nov. 1-2 meeting, which would be the fourth consecutive rate hike of this magnitude in as many meetings. Fed officials are raising rates at the most aggressive pace since the early 1980s, and some of them are becoming increasingly concerned about a deep recession as rate hikes work themselves into the economy. "I worry that if the way you judge it is another bad inflation report must be that we need more rate hikes ... that puts us at somewhat greater risk of responding overly aggressive," said President of Chicago Federal Reserve Charles Evans this week. "We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech earlier this month. Other Fed officials are frustrated with the lack of progress in curtailing inflation despite tighter monetary conditions. "Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year," said Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker in remarks Thursday in Vineland, New Jersey. In response to Friday's reports, investors sharply reduced bets on another 0.75% rate increase in December, down from 77% seen just a day ago to 45.4% today, showed CME Fed's Watch Tool. This week also saw increased volatility in global financial markets partly because political turmoil in Great Britain spilled into currency and bond markets, pressuring the oil complex. Financial markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming days until the United Kingdom selects a new prime minister, but the hope is the departure of embattled UK Prime Minister Lizz Truss could bring back credibility to the UK government. Also in Europe, European leaders agreed Friday to a temporary price corridor for natural gas transitions to prevent "extreme volatility and excessive prices" by blocking gas transactions above a certain level." They also said they would pursue a temporary framework to cap the price of gas in electricity generation, including a cost and benefit analysis. Natural gas in Europe fell, with benchmark futures traded at Dutch's Title Transfer Facility declining as much as 4.8% on Friday and headed for a third straight weekly loss. Before Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the EU got 40% of its gas imports from Russia's vast pipeline network that have been depressing the wholesale gas prices on the continent. Today, the share of Russian gas on European market has fallen to 7.5%. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $0.54 to $85.05 per barrel, and the international crude benchmark for December delivery finished $1.12 per barrel higher at $93.50 per barrel. ULSD futures for November delivery rallied 7.55 cents to $3.8323 a gallon, and November RBOB futures rose 1.42 cents to $2.6620 per gallon.
Ramaphosa confirms Saudi Arabia wants to join Brics family --Saudi Arabia has expressed its interest in joining the Brics bloc.This was revealed by President Cyril Ramaphosa during his two-day state visit to the kingdom on Sunday.“The Crown Prince (prime minister Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud) did express Saudi Arabia’s desire to be part of Brics and they are not the only country,” said Ramaphosa.He confirmed this on Sunday during an engagement with the media.Brics held its first summit in 2009, with SA joining the following year. The bloc has generally been seen as an alternative to the dominance of the western economies.“We did say that Brics having a summit next year under the chairship of South Africa in SA and the matter is going to be under consideration.“A number of countries are making approaches to Brics members, and we have given them the same answer that it will be discussed by the Brics partners and thereafter a decision will be made.”
Biden Tells Iran Protesters “Keep Fighting” As Tehran Says Unrest Driven By US, Saudis --Iran protests have been persisting and growing fiercer since the September 16 death of 22-year old Mahsa Amini, who had been detained by police in Tehran for not adhering to the country's strict Islamic dress code. The "anti-hijab" protests which are raging and lately taking over university campuses across various cities are now coming under increased international media coverage. Now in their fifth week, the protests and ongoing clashes with security forces have left over 230 Iranians dead, including reportedly with casualties among police as well.Multiple hundreds of demonstrators have also been arrested. Increasingly, Iranian authorities are blaming the Islamic Republic's "enemies" - including the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia - for fomenting what have morphed into raging anti-government unrest. This theme of Tehran is likely to gain more traction among broader swathes of the Iranian population which have by and large remained on the sidelines after on Monday President Joe Biden issued a message of support for the protests...Biden says in unscripted comment that he visited Saudi Arabia and Israel in August to firm up Iran strategy. “Everyone thought I went to the Middle East because of oil, it was because of Iran,” he says. Regime will cite as “proof” America behind protests pic.twitter.com/ibXvCZ3Lqa Biden made the off-the-cuff statements to activists and reporters, describing of his July visit to Saudi Arabia, "Everyone thought I went to the Middle East because of oil, it was because of Iran." Biden praised the "incredible courage" of the protesters, and when asked by an activist to issue a message to Iranians in the streets, he said: "Keeping fighting, we're with you."This past week has seen the first instances of the US president personally issuing such specific support to the anti-regime protests, and it's certainly going to be noticed in Tehran, given officials there have already said the "riots" are a US-backed plot.
Iran Condemns EU Sanctions, Vows To Reciprocate - Spokesman of Iran's Foreign Ministry Nasser Kanaani strongly condemned the latest European Union sanctions against a number of Iranian people and entities, saying that the Islamic Republic will soon reciprocate and impose sanctions against relevant European individuals and entities, reports citing . Kanaani made the announcement on Monday hours after the EU imposed sanctions on 11 Iranian people and 4 entities over the recent unrest in the country, accusing them of human rights violations. The spokesman described the EU measures a violation of international law and blatant interference in Iran's internal affairs. He said that it is a matter of deep regret that the EU has made this wrong, unconstructive decision which is totally invalid and rejected. Kanaani said that the move is based on political motives, and unfounded and distorted information, as well as allegations made by enemies of the Iranian nation and their affiliated media outlets. The spokesman also said the move indicates a continued hostile policy towards Iran, and is a sign of using human rights issue as a tool to achieve political purposes. He said that the Iranian nation has already regarded the European Union as a great violator of human rights over its accompanying and non-practice on illegal US sanctions and its so-called maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Kanaani dismissed all accusations leveled against the Iranian individuals and entities targeted by the EU measures, saying that Tehran will soon announce and impose sanctions on relevant European people and entities in response.
Saudis Announce $400M In Ukraine Aid After Biden Said US 'Re-Evaluating' Ties With Kingdom - Saudi state media announced Saturday that the kingdom will provide $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, following a Friday phone call between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Volodymyr Zelensky.SPA stated of the call, "The crown prince expressed the kingdom's readiness to continue efforts of mediation and support everything that contributes to de-escalation," in reference to the over seven-month long invasion of Ukraine.The timing of the new aid is raising eyebrows at a moment there are growing calls in US Congress to freeze all new military arms and equipment sales to Riyadh, and after the White House just days ago confirmed President Biden will re-evaluate ties with Saudi Arabia."We are reviewing where we are; we’ll be watching very closely, talking to partners and stakeholders," State Department spokesman Ned Price price said Tuesday, following the Saudis having led the way in getting major oil producers to cut petroleum output, crucially also ahead of mid-term elections in the US.As reported previously by Al Jazeera of Price's press briefing:He added that President Joe Biden had previously spoken of the need to “recalibrate” ties with Saudi Arabia to better serve the US – a position that Price said was underscored by the recently announced oil cuts."Our guiding principle will be to see to it that we have a relationship that serves our interests. This is not a bilateral relationship that has always served our interests," Price said.Price went so far as to charge the OPEC is essentially supporting Russia's aggression in Ukraine "against the interests of the American people" in this latest move.
Russia Warns Israel That Lethal Aid To Ukraine Will Destroy All Ties - Russia has put Israel on notice over significant ongoing rumors that the Israeli government is preparing to supply Ukraine with lethal military aid. So far its aid has been only humanitarian and non-lethal equipment, with Israeli leaders thus far rejecting repeat requests from Kiev for arms, including the famous Iron Dome anti-air system.There's currently no evidence that the Knesset has authorized or pulled the trigger on defensive aid, but some Israeli officials are getting increasingly vocal about the possibility in response to widespread reports of the Iranians sending Moscow 'kamikaze' drones alleged to have been used in the latest stepped-up attacks. The latest international reports suggest Tehran is delivering Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia a part of war-time resupply efforts. Alarmed over the deepening ties and alleged transfers, Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai stated on Twitter Sunday the "time has come" for Israel to join allies in the West in sending arms to Kiev."There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict," Shai wrote. "The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as well, just as the U.S. and NATO countries provide."On Monday EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said his office is gathering evidence on Iranian drone transfers to Russia, which has reportedly included hundreds of "Shahed" drones. Multiple suicide drones struck central Kiev on Monday. This could pave the way for new, expanded EU sanctions on the Islamic Republic.In response to Israel signaling it could send weapons into the conflict, on Monday top Russian national security council official and ex-president Dmitry Medvedev warned Israel that sending weaponry to Ukraine would destroy relations..."It seems Israel will supply weapons to the Kyiv regime. A very reckless move. It will destroy all diplomatic relations between our countries," Medvedev wrote on Telegram.
China Orders Evacuation Of All Citizens Still In Ukraine, Sparking Escalation Fears - China's foreign ministry on Saturday issued an urgent call for any Chinese nationals still in Ukraine to exit immediately, kicking off speculation over what's behind the unspecified appeal and scramble.The notification is being widely seen as the most forceful evacuation order yet, and suggests that Beijing might be aware of Russian plans for possibly imminent bigger, sweeping airstrikes against Ukrainian cities, such as the widespread escalatory strikes conducted last Monday into Tuesday.The first big evacuation of Chinese citizens took place starting last March, in which some 6,000 Chinese nationals left the country amid the Russian invasion. But now, as state media Global Times writes, "Some Chinese nationals still in Ukraine have signed up for evacuation from the country, with most registering for organized evacuations, while others are preparing to leave Ukraine on their own, the Global Times learned on Sunday, after the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Chinese citizens to leave Ukraine, citing the grave security situation."The foreign ministry and embassy warned of the "grave security situation" and ordered an immediate departure, citing the need "to enhance safety precautions and evacuate." The statement indicated that "the embassy will assist in organizing the evacuation of people in need." Russian state sources also on Sunday began publicizing the new alert notification. GT is reporting that an evacuation is now in progress: As of press time on Sunday, 161 people had registered on the form the embassy sent out for organized evacuation, and another 27 people registered on the form for self-evacuation, according to a Global Times' count of the registration on the embassy's WeChat account. It additionally comes at a moment of stepped-up cross-border attacks on the Russian city of Belgorod, which lies just north of the Ukrainian border opposite Kharkiv.
(CPC Congress) CPC to unswervingly advance cause of national reunification: Xi- (Xinhua) -- Xi Jinping said on Sunday that the Communist Party of China (CPC) will implement its overall policy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era, and unswervingly advance the cause of national reunification."Resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese, a matter that must be resolved by the Chinese," said Xi at the opening session of the 20th CPC National Congress."We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary. This is directed solely at interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking 'Taiwan independence' and their separatist activities; it is by no means targeted at our Taiwan compatriots," he said.Xi said that the wheels of history are rolling on toward China's reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. "Complete reunification of our country must be realized, and it can, without doubt, be realized!""We have always shown respect and care for our Taiwan compatriots and worked to deliver benefits to them. We will continue to promote economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation across the Strait," Xi said."We will encourage people on both sides of the Strait to work together to promote Chinese culture and forge closer bonds," he said.
China Pursuing 'Strategic Military' Interests In The Arctic: Pompeo -- China’s ruling communist regime seeks to expand into the Arctic region to exploit natural resources, secure trade routes, and garner a military advantage against the United States, according to former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its leader, Xi Jinping, are putting China on a path toward confrontation with the United States by pursuing strategic objectives in the region, Pompeo said in an interview with the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank where Pompeo is a distinguished fellow.“Xi Jinping has made very clear that he wants to rule forever and that his rule should be over everything,” Pompeo said. “I think we should take that seriously.”“Make no mistake about it, the CCP has deep, strategic military intentions in the Arctic.”Pompeo said that the CCP is encroaching on the Arctic region as part of a wider effort to secure military and economic security against the West. That effort goes back a number of years but reached new highs in 2017 when the CCP attempted to purchase a decommissioned naval base in Greenland.The Arctic region is critical to U.S. defense and national security, Pompeo said, not just because of the resources located there, but also because ballistic missiles launched by China or Russia at the United States would need to pass over the region.“America’s national security depends on this region,” Pompeo said. “Every single Chinese land-based ICBM must fly through the Arctic region to hit its targets here in the United States and Canada.”“Our missile defense against such ICBMs, whether they come from Russia or China, are deployed primarily in the Arctic, in Greenland, and Alaska.”Pompeo said that the eight nations of the Arctic Council should ban military presence in the Arctic by non-Arctic countries.The eight nations that exercise sovereignty over land within the Arctic region are Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States.The CCP has dubbed China a “near-Arctic state” to legitimize its move into the region, but the designation has no legal authority and is not recognized outside of China.“The Chinese Communist Party lacks any legitimate claim to sovereignty [in the region] even though it has made … this idea of it being a ‘near-Arctic nation,'” Pompeo said.
Xi Puts Nail In The Coffin Of Global Supply Chains - A global, integrated supply chain is on its death bed, with Washington working hard to prevent China from accessing US high-tech and kicking some Made-in-China items out of American supply chains. In response, Beijing is doubling down on import substitution in a bid to avoid being choked off from key technology by Washington or its allies. President Xi Jinping made a perfectly clear case for greater controls on supply chains when he delivered a keynote report on Sunday to the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
Amid A Chaotic Call-Up, Some Russian Draftees Are Returning Home In Body Bags. Now Putin Says Mobilization Is Ending.-- Radio Free Europe - As Russian President Vladimir Putin's unpopular mobilization drive extends into its fourth week, body bags containing the remains of draftees have begun to arrive back home, compounding fear and disgruntlement among citizens over a process that has appeared disorganized and arbitrary. Russian authorities announced on October 13 that five men from the Urals region who were drafted in late September had been killed in Ukraine, possibly the first official confirmation of battlefield deaths among mobilized men. A day later, a funeral was held in Moscow for another man who was called up in the mobilization announced by Putin on September 21. The deaths come amid widespread complaints by draftees and their families about poor conditions at mobilization points, including a lack of food, shelter, gear, and training. Many claim they were wrongly drafted, including some who say they had no prior military experience or suffered from medical conditions that prevent them from serving. Anton Borisov, 36, was drafted in late September and sent to the front lines in Ukraine a few days later, along with other mobilized men from the Urals. He quickly met his death. "There's something that bothers me: they say and show one thing [about training] on TV, but in fact, they didn't even have any training," Vladimir Borisov, whose son Anton was among the five mobilized men from the Urals who were killed, told local media outlet 74.ru Putin's announcement of what he called a "partial" mobilization came after a rout in the Kharkiv region, where Ukraine regained a large swath of territory that had been seized by Russian forces since the large-scale invasion began in February. Those losses and other setbacks have raised the prospect of a Russian military defeat that could undermine Putin's rule. Putin said the mobilization would affect only reservists and men with combat experience, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the military would seek to call up about 300,000 men. Military officials have promised the mobilized men would receive at least two weeks of training before being sent to the front. Putin's announcement sparked protests in dozens of cities, and tens of thousands of men have fled the country -- to avoid the draft.
Europe's Ultimate Choices On Ukraine --As the Ukraine conflict continues, a basic question with ethical dimensions has risen and will need to be answered soon by European politicians: how moral it is to support Ukraine “as long as it takes” against the necessity of protecting your own citizens’ welfare and the constitutional duty to follow your people’s mandate which is the basic rule of democracy? European unclenched and blind support for US policies in the Ukraine conflict, and the dire economic and political consequences it has unleashed, is bringing the continent’s political architecture to a defining moment which may only be resolved through the end of the European Union (EU) regime and the emergence of a new and still undefined political settlement.Betting on Russia’s defeat and Vladimir Putin’s demise, the EU has followed the US-led economic war against Russia via sanctions which now far outnumber those directed against any other country on earth but nevertheless have failed. On the other hand, beyond the adverse impact on consumers and small/medium businesses caused by rising energy bills, general inflation, and the prospects of serious heating scarcity this winter, EU’s sanctions against Russia are causing irreparable damage to the continent’s economy. Energy intensive manufacturing companies are going bankrupt or moving overseas attracted by lower energy costs, prompting business closures, a deterioration of trade balances, a severe erosion of the Euro currency, job losses, the destruction of the continent’s manufacturing competitive advantage built over decades and an inevitable and severe recession in the coming months. The overall political and social impact of these events on the continent’s future is still unclear as there is no escaping to its lack of natural resources. EU’s decisions in support of Ukraine have purportedly been taken in the name of democracy, the rule of law and western values and against a military action by Russia considered unprovoked and illegal. The EU appears to have been also concerned about the unsettling of post-World War II borders – or rather the national frontiers that followed the end of the Cold War – and has expressed unfounded fears that Russia’s actions in Ukraine are the prelude for further aggression in Europe.Deep down, through its actions against Russia the European leadership psyche seems to have had a cathartic release, unleashing an old Russophobia manifested in Europe over decades if not centuries, melting together Czarist Russia, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation in an effort to portray and convince the average European about an inherent Russian malignity that needs to be rooted out once and for all. In its one-sided defence of Ukraine, the EU has been unwilling to recognize and accept the civil war character of the Ukraine conflict, Russia’s legitimate security concerns and its ongoing warnings about it over years, the historical background of a conflict rooted on the mistreatment of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population that worsened since the US sponsored Ukraine coup in 2014 and its failure to support a diplomatic settlement in 2015 – i.e. the Minsk agreements -, in which they played a mayor facilitating role. The EU ignores the deep flaws of the current Ukraine government and the society it has tried to create, both defined now by blatant corruption, political persecution of opposition and an ultra-nationalist ideology, all this hardly reflecting so-called European values.
How Much Was the Expanded Russian Invasion of Ukraine Anticipated? by Menzie Chinn - Answer: Not much. This point is critical in assessing how appropriate conditional forecasts of inflation were, especially those pertaining to 2022.Textual analysis and market indicators. First up, the Geopolitical Risk Indicator and Economic Policy Index:Figure 1: US Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index (blue), and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index (tan). Source: Baker, Bloom and Davis via FRED, and GPR index, accessed 18 Oct 2022.Notice that the US EPU — focused on the the US of course, does not indicate much movement before the Biden warning to European leaders, nor just before the Russian “special military operation”. The GPR index did rise as news of US intelligence warnings to Western intelligence agencies circulated, and spiked just days before the actual invasion.What about market indicators. The VIX spiked at the beginning of December when stock prices dropped, and spiked (as US intelligence warnings circulated). But through the Fall of 2021, the US financial markets did not perceive a high risk of Russian aggression affecting equity markets.Figure 2: VIX close (teal). Source: CBOE via FRED.We know that any Russian aggression would’ve had a positive impact on energy prices, both oil and natural gas. Did spot markets (remember, as a storable commodity, oil and natural gas should reflect both current and expected future conditions) reflect anticipated Russian action? Here’re Brent and Dutch TTF (natural gas): Figure 3: Price of oil (Brent), $/bbl (black). Source: EIA via FRED Figure 4: Natural gas EU (Dutch TTF), Eur/MWh (blue), October 2021-October 2022 [NOTE different time scale]. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, accessed 18 Oct 2022.While there are spikes in both prices, note that until the beginning of the Special Military Operation, prices had stabilized in the EU market for natural gas.Oil prices as of November were rising, but futures prices indicated backwardation.Finally, assuming an expansion of the Russian war on Ukraine was going to spur sanctions, heightening risks of sovereign default, we would have expected a rise in CDS’s value ahead of time. The value did not rise until the initiation of the Special Military Operation.Figure 5: Russian sovereign debt CDS value. Source: World of Government Bonds, accessed 18 October 2022.The current value iimplies 100% probability of default using 40% recovery rate.Without knowing what the prices would’ve been in the counterfactual of no Russian Special Military Operation, one can’t infer the probabilities the markets were assigning to the outcome that was actually realized. However, a high likelihood does not seem to be associated by markets (similarly by textual analysis).If one believes inflation outcomes are substantially dictated by the trajectory of energy prices, then the forecasts of inflation have to be judged on whether agents believed an expanded Russian invasion was likely. Had forecasters, including those in policymaking arenas, attributed a higher likelihood of enhanced Russian aggression, then inflation forecasts would have likely have been higher (and growth forecasts correspondingly lower).In other words, keep the distinction between conditional and unconditional forecasts in mind, when assessing the inflation forecasting record.
Ukraine Can Retake Crimea By Next Summer, Former Top US Commander Says - A top US general, now retired, has said he believes that Ukrainian forces can retake the Crimean Peninsula by next summer. Ben Hodges is the former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, and he's predicting that "Crimea will be free by summer." He told German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in statements published over the weekend, "When I look at the situation, I see that the situation of the Russians is getting worse with every week." Hodges went on to explain that Ukraine's military is likely to keep this momentum given "far superior" logistics and motivation to fight."They say war is a test of will and logistics – and on both counts Ukraine is far superior," Hodges told the German publication. "The Russians have to lose [the war]; otherwise, they’ll try again in two or three years."He said the Kremlin is betting big on its "one hope" that the West and NATO countries will lose resolve in their military support for Ukraine.The ex-top Army commander for Europe also said he expects to see more sabotage attacks against Russian assets and crucial logistics and resource hubs, such as with the recent bombings against the Kerch Strait Bridge and the Nord Stream pipelines: "So they are doing everything they can to prolong the war and spread fear and insecurity in the West. Any means will do: The young men who are now being conscripted as cannon fodder, as well as attacks on infrastructure in the West," Hodges told FAZ. "I believe that we will therefore see more such acts of sabotage and attacks, or at least attempts, in the coming weeks and months." This comes as there's been stepped up cross-border shelling and missile attacks against the Russian city of Belgorod, which lies just north of the Ukrainian border not far from the major Ukraine city of Kherson. But despite much of the past month witnessing headline after headline declare rapid advances of Ukrainian forces against the Russians in the east, the Kremlin on Sunday has announced significant new successes: Russia’s defense ministry says its forces repelled efforts by Ukrainian troops to advance in the Donetsk, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, inflicting what it described as significant losses against the enemy. A ministry spokesperson said that "during fierce fighting, units of the Russian army held the positions they held, inflicting significant losses on the enemy."
Russian ‘kamikaze’ drones strike Kyiv, Zelensky says attacks ‘won’t break’ Ukrainians - Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky’s chief of staff said Russian “kamikaze drones” hit Kyiv early on Monday. Zelensky said Russia had launched a barrage of drone and missile attacks across the country, but that the strikes would not "break" Ukrainians. The United States will hold Russia accountable for "war crimes", the White House has said, hours after Russia attacked Ukrainian cities with drones during morning rush hour, killing at least four people in an apartment building in downtown Kyiv.Russian forces also targeted infrastructure across the country in the second wave of air strikes in a week.President Joe Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that the White House “strongly condemns Russia’s missile strikes today” and said the attack “continues to demonstrate Putin’s brutality”.A pregnant woman was among four people killed in the attack on the residential building, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Ukraine's Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi said there had been deaths in other cities but did not provide a full toll.
Russia launches series of attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities – video report | The Guardian -The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, says nearly a third of the country's power stations have been destroyed by Russian missile attacks in the past eight days. Russia has launched a series of attacks on Ukraine's energy supply, hitting facilities in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv on Tuesday. In the Zhytomyr region, the governor says 11 settlements have no electricity after a missile attack on a thermal power plant. Ukraine's energy minister told the BBC his country needs international support to 'close the sky', while authorities are doing everything they can to repair facilities before winter
Ukraine updates: Third of power stations 'destroyed' – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia's military has destroyed some 30% of Ukraine's power stations. Much of the damage has been done in the past week, with repeated strikes targeting energy infrastructure and causing blackouts across the country. "Since October 10, 30% of Ukraine's power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country," Zelenskyy said on Twitter. The Ukrainian president added there was "no space left for negotiations with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's regime." Over 1,100 cities and town in Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, have seen power cuts after more strikes hit energy facilities on Tuesday. "As a result of today's attack on the critical infrastructure of Kyiv, three people were killed. These are employees of one of the critical infrastructure facilities," Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Energy operator DTEK announced "interruptions" to the electricity and water supply to residents after an attack on a facility on the left bank of the city's river. Earlier on Tuesday, Russian missile strikes hit Ukrainian infrastructure in Kyiv and other areas, coming just a day after deadly Russian drone strikes hit the Ukrainian capital. On Monday, four people were killed in Kyiv due to a barrage of Russian attacks with so-called "suicide drones."Meanwhile, the northern city of Zhytomyr was left without electricity and water supply after the Tuesday morning strikes, its mayor said. In Dnipro, an energy facility was hit twice and severely damaged, an official said.
Ukrainians Struggle to Conserve Energy After Strikes Damage Power Stations - The New York Times - Bottled water and rolling blackouts are part of daily life amid the attacks. — From towns near frontline battlefields to high-rises in the capital, Ukrainians were trying to conserve energy as President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Tuesday that Russian attacks over the past eight days had destroyed 30 percent of Ukraine’s power stations and caused “massive blackouts across the country.”The latest strikes have increased the likelihood of a miserable winter, with residents having to do without basic services such as heat and water. The World Health Organization has warned of the potential for a spiraling humanitarian crisis, given that a lack of access to fuel or electricity “could become a matter of life or death if people are unable to heat their homes.”The United Nations’ human rights body has said that deliberate strikes on such civilian targets could constitute a war crime. Mr. Zelensky urged Ukrainians in his nightly address on Monday to reduce their electricity use during peak hours to “enable the whole country to go through this period more stably,” and many residents and businesses have been doing their part.In his statement on Tuesday, he did not specify which power stations had sustained significant damage. On Tuesday, blasts hit a district on the eastern shore of the Dnipro River in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, according to the mayor, along with cities in the north and center of the country.The strikes on Ukraine in recent weeks have targeted both electrical infrastructure and thermal power plants. Many cities and towns rely on a centralized system to heat homes, pumping water from these thermal plants though pipes that reach houses and large apartment complexes across the region.If the plants are damaged — or the pipes — it could threaten heating across a wide area. Those who rely on electric heaters also risk facing a winter without proper warmth in their houses because of rolling blackouts.The attack on Kyiv killed three people and knocked out electricity and water in parts of the city, officials said, and came one day after Russia struck the city with exploding Iranian-made drones, apparently targeting electricity and heating facilities. In Kyiv, lights flickered just after 9 a.m., and residents living in the city’s eastern reaches said they had heard an explosion. The mayor, Vitaly Klitschko, said that an “object of critical infrastructure” had been struck. Kyrylo Tymoshenko, a senior official in Mr. Zelensky’s office, said that at least three strikes had hit an energy site, resulting in “serious damage,” without elaborating.
Gangster-Terror Nexus: NIA Raids Underway In 50 Locations -- The National Investigation Agency (NIA) is conducting raids at more than 50 locations across the country, including premises of gangster Lawrence Bishnoi's associate Naresh Sethi, in connection with the gangster syndicate matter. According to information, the NIA teams reached Sethi's house in Haryana's Jhajjar at around 4 a.m on Tuesday. 'Local police headed by a DSP-level official assisted us during our raid. We scanned the bank details and checked Sethi's illegal properties. We grilled his family about the same,' a source said. Sethi is involved in murder, ransom and several other henious crimes. He was caught and is currently lodged in Delhi's Tihar jail. He had been associated with Lawrence Bishnoi. 'We have decided to uproot the emerging nexus between gangsters, terrorists and narcotic dealers. They were working together,' he said. The case relates to involvement of criminal gangs in different kinds of criminal activities, including killings, to terrorise the people to extort money for running and promoting their criminal syndicates and activities. These gangs were also raising funds to carry out such criminal activities through smuggling of drugs and weapons. Initially, the case was registered by the Special Cell, Delhi Police on August 8 against eight accused and a few others. Later, the probe was taken over by the NIA. The NIA has said that the gangs based in India and abroad had hatched a conspiracy to carry out terrorist acts in Delhi and other parts of the country.
Australian teacher staffing shortage exacerbates schools’ crisis -Numerous reports have recently detailed the impact of Australia’s national shortage of school teachers. Thousands of positions remain unfilled across the school system, creating enormous workload pressures within the schools and exacerbating the crisis of the public education system (see: “Australian teachers detail impact of school staffing shortages in inquiry submissions”).A detailed survey of the teaching workforce was issued by the Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership (AITSL) on September 20. Its Australian Teacher Workforce Data project involved the regular surveying of tens of thousands of teachers—the latest edition polled nearly 32,000 school workers, which AITSL characterised as “by far the largest ever sample of teachers for research purposes.”The survey showed a growing divergence between rapid growth in the student population and slowing enrolment and graduation from teaching degrees.The existing workforce is ageing, with AITSL reporting that more than one-third of all registered teachers, 38 percent, are older than 50 years. The report underscored one of the main reasons for younger teachers quitting the profession, crushing workloads and expectations of delivering unpaid overtime every day. AITSL’s survey found that full time teachers typically worked 55 hours a week, 45 percent more hours than they are paid for.The situation in the schools is undoubtedly even worse than indicated in the Australian Teacher Workforce Data, given that the published survey results date from 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in that year has since wreaked havoc in Australian schools, especially in late 2021 and this year. State and federal governments, both Labor and Liberal, have worked closely with the teacher unions to keep schools open amid record rates of infection, with even minimal precautions such as mandatory mask wearing jettisoned.Numerous, though as yet not properly quantified, reports have emerged of teachers quitting the profession over fears of being repeatedly infected with the dangerous virus.Federal government projections anticipate a shortfall of around 4,000 secondary teachers by 2025. This is likely to be a gross underestimate. In each state in Australia, there are already hundreds and sometimes thousands of advertised teaching positions that are being unfilled.In Victoria, an Australian Education Union survey of public school principals was released last August. It found that every secondary school principal has had to readvertise teaching vacancies due to no appointments being made when positions were first listed. Across both secondary and primary schools, more than 80 percent of principals reported that it had become “much harder '' to fill staffing vacancies in the last twelve months. Finally, the survey reported that the top two reasons teachers gave for leaving the profession were stress/burnout and workload.A research report conducted by several academics at Monash University and published in the Australian Journal of Education last August found that of nearly 2,500 surveyed teachers, 59 percent planned on quitting the profession. The survey was conducted on the eve of the pandemic, so, again, the real situation is likely even worse than reported.The majority of those surveyed reported the impact of excess workload, especially non-teaching requirements including administrative duties and data entry demands. This impact includes mental and physical health problems.
Australian report documents cold conditions for renters - A recent report entitled “Cold and Costly” has underscored the difficult and dangerous conditions confronting many people who rent properties in Australia.The report, by the Better Renting organisation, cited a 2015 Lancet study which found that more people die from exposure to the cold in Australian homes than in colder countries like Sweden and Canada.The study said that approximately 6.5 percent of all mortalities (or about one in fifteen) between 1988 to 2009 were attributable to winter cold exposure in Australia. That compared with 3.69 percent in Canada and 4.46 percent in Sweden. Cold weather claims more lives than hot weather, with the study reporting that heat contributed to only 0.5 percent of overall mortality in Australia over the same period.This is extraordinary considering the climatic differences between the countries. Australia’s winters tend to be relatively mild, with daily mean temperatures in capital cities Sydney and Melbourne generally between 11.0 and 13.4 degrees Celsius in July, (52 to 56 degrees Fahrenheit) the coldest month of the year, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.By contrast, Sweden’s capital Stockholm experiences mean January winter temperatures of -1.0°C, and Canada’s capital Ottawa −10.2°C (30°F and 14°F respectively).The Better Renting report highlighted some of the factors responsible for Australia’s surprising level of cold-related mortality.The report entailed a study of 70 renters from across Australia. Participants were given smart thermometers which monitored the temperature and humidity in their homes at one-minute intervals.The report cited the World Health Organization (WHO), which recommends that 18°C (64.4° F) is the minimum healthy indoor temperature. Over the recording period from June 13 to July 31, the study’s participants reported indoor temperatures dropping below 18°C on average 75 percent of the time, that is approximately 18 hours per day.For some households, there were days where the indoor temperatures did not rise above the 18°C temperature threshold. For those so affected, the incidence was around 39 percent of the time. In the state of Tasmania, one person reported temperatures of 0.2°C on July 21.In Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), the average temperatures recorded were 13.9°C and 14.2°C respectively and in both Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) the average temperature was 15.4°C.The report cited a study from March this year which found that eliminating cold in Australian homes, through adding insulation and proper heat containment measures, could lower rates of heart and cardiovascular disease, and increase life expectancy by an estimated 1.6 years per 1000 people.The report found that those who reside in poorly built homes were consistently colder by about 4°C and saw temperatures decrease faster overnight and increase slower during the day compared to those who lived in well insulated homes. The report presents the difference as simply being between rental and owned homes, but this obscures the extent of the crisis. A November 2021 report from PowerHousing Australia estimated that approximately 8 million (out of a national housing stock of 10.6 million) existing homes have “energy inefficient” designs, meaning they “are cold in winter, hot in summer, and prohibitively expensive to cool and heat.”
Central Bank Digital Currencies Would Let Governments Control What People Spend Money On: IMF Official Admits - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could potentially allow a government to control what people spend their hard-earned cash on.Speaking at the IMF-World Bank annual meeting on Oct. 15, Deputy Managing Director Bo Li said that a CBDC could improve “financial inclusion” through programmability.“A CBDC can allow government agencies and private sector players to program, to create smart contracts, to allow targeted policy functions,” Li explained. “For example, welfare payments, for example, consumption coupons, for example, food stamps.”“By programming CBDC, that money can be precisely targeted for what kind of people can own [CBDC] and for what kind of use this money can be utilized, for example for food.”Li, who stepped into the role of deputy managing director at the IMF on Aug. 23, 2021, added that by allowing the government to precisely target what people need, this will enable said government to “improve financial inclusion.”However, his comments were quick to garner a reaction from experts, including Nick Anthony, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives.Anthony wrote on Twitter that the IMF executive’s comments revealed how a CBDC would “allow the government to precisely control what people can and cannot spend their money on.”
Haiti's crisis continues as world powers at the U.N. negotiate sanctions and the deployment of a multinational force - CBS News— The U.N. Security Council met in an urgent session on Monday to deal with the gang violence that has enveloped Haiti. The Caribbean nation has been dealing with what the U.N. called "catastrophic" hunger, as access to water and gas have been cut off by Haitian gang leader Jimmy "Barbeque" Cherizier and a growing cholera outbreak continues.Two resolutions are being proposed by the U.S. and Mexico: one to enact an arms embargo and that would impose financial costs to gang leaders; the second, to create a non-U.N. multinational force under the U.N. Charter's "use of force" provision. "Colleagues, if there was ever a moment to come to the aid of Haitians in dire need, it is now," U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield told world powers. According to the U.N., a record 4.7 million people are currently facing acute hunger. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) said that an "unrelenting series of crises has trapped vulnerable Haitians in a cycle of growing desperation, without access to food, fuel, markets, jobs and public services, bringing the country to a standstill."The first resolution, Thomas-Greenfield said, "would impose financial sanctions on criminal actors that are inflicting so much suffering on the Haitian people." The second would "authorize a non-U.N. international security assistance mission to help improve the security situation and enable the flow of desperately needed humanitarian aid," she said. Thomas-Greenfield said that Haiti is facing "extreme violence and instability" adding that the country's leaders and the Haitian people "are crying for help." and the U.S. as the nation celebrates the 216th anniversary of the assassination of Haitian independence hero Jean-Jacques Dessalines. Monday's U.S.–Mexico approach is a departure from an earlier proposal. The earlier measure, obtained by CBS News, supported "the immediate deployment of a multinational rapid action force."Council members told CBS News that the first resolution may be considered this week, but the creation of a multinational force to support the police against gang violence would need more negotiating. Jean Victor Geneus, Haiti's foreign minister, called on the U.N. "to urgently consider the request from the government [for a multinational force] so as to help us face the crisis." "Haiti today is dealing with major security, political, economic and social challenges. The humanitarian crisis and the resurgence of cholera aggravate the situation further," Geneus said, calling for a "political agreement" to re-establish democratic institutions to organize general elections as soon as the security situation allows. All nations of the 15-country council on Monday expressed alarm at the deteriorating crisis in Haiti. The U.K.'s deputy ambassador, James Kariuki, told CBS News that "the security situation in Haiti is near breaking point… Gangs are holding the Haitian people hostage." But boots on the ground in Haiti is a troubling proposition for many nations.
'Every day you're hopeless': Haitians eye foreign help warily as gangs, cholera outbreak take toll - -- As Haiti continues to grapple with gang violence, inflation and rising cholera cases, a proposed U.N. security response is being met with caution by some Haitians. "Every day you're hopeless, feeling like you're left behind, you're deserted, nobody's doing something to keep you safe," Stephanie Andressol told ABC News. Andressol lives near the border separating Haiti and the Dominican Republic. She says she and other women refuse to beg for handouts and want to work to support their families. However, they don't feel safe in the streets. "I haven't been able to go to Port-au-Prince just because I'm scared of being raped," Andressol said. "Gangs would tell me to take off my clothes and see if I have money." Gangs are openly in control of some neighborhoods, setting up checkpoints along roads to commit robberies, residents say. Some schools have reopened, but classrooms remain mostly empty, as it isn't safe for children to go to school. Gang violence coupled with inflation have forced businesses to close, leaving people without jobs. "We had a shipment of water coming in, there were like two thousand gallons, they got held up, and they took the truck and the water," Janco Damas, the owner of a commercial bakery in the Centre Ville section of Port-au-Prince, told ABC News. The rising prices of flour and shortening meant operating at a loss for the bakery once popular for selling potable water and Haitian paté -- a pastry dish made with flour and meat or fish. Production dipped and so did the number of customers. "The streets are dangerous, people don't leave their house," Damas said. In a country that takes pride in being the world's first Black-led republic, 4.7 million people now face acute hunger, according to the United Nations' World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization. For the first time in Haiti, 19,000 people are facing catastrophic hunger levels, the U.N. organizations said last week. The civil unrest has also coincided with a cholera outbreak. Between Sept. 26 and Oct. 8, 2022, the Haiti Ministry of Public Health and Population reported 32 lab-confirmed cases of cholera and 224 suspected cases from Port-au-Prince and Cité Soleil, according to the World Health Organization. A total of 189 people have been hospitalized, of which 16 deaths have been reported. The most affected age group is 1 to 4-year-olds, the ministry’s data shows.
EU Prosecutor Opens Probe Into COVID Vaccine Purchases - Two weeks after Pfizer CEO bailed on EU testimony in the wake of a report highlighting a 'secretive' vaccine deal between himself and European Commission President Ursula 'missing texts' von der Leyen, the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) has opened an investigation into the EU's Covid-19 vaccine purchases, Politico reports. EPPO, and independent EU body, is responsible for investigating and prosecuting financial crimes, including fraud, money laundering and corruption, according to the report. In its Friday announcement, the body did not specify who was being investigated, or which contracts were the subject of inquiry.That said, two other watchdog agencies have brought attention to the von der Leyen - Bourla deal."This exceptional confirmation comes after the extremely high public interest. No further details will be made public at this stage," said the EPPO.In April 2021, the New York Times first reported on text messages exchanged between von der Leyen and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla in the run-up to the EU's biggest vaccine procurement contract — for up to 1.8 billion doses of BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine. The deal would be worth up to €35 billion if fully exercised, according to leaked vaccine prices. In January this year, the EU's ombudsman charged the Commission with maladministration for failing to look for the text messages in response to a freedom of information request. Without confirming the existence of the texts, the Commission argued in its response that "short-lived, ephemeral documents are not kept." It said that a search for the text messages hadn't yielded any results. -Politico
UK teachers vote overwhelmingly for strike in “preliminary” ballot - An unprecedented 98 percent of teachers in the National Education Union (NEU) voted yes to a fully funded, above-inflation pay rise. A huge majority (86 percent) indicated they would be prepared to strike. Teachers have been offered a pay deal of just 5 percent, which will not be funded nationally and must come from schools’ existing inadequate budgets. 261,522 NEU members were consulted in the ballot with turnout at 62 percent. National Education Union support staff members, who were balloted separately, rejected the offer by 92 percent. Over three quarters (78 percent) of voted in favour of strike action. The 5 percent offer is an enormous real terms pay cut. RPI inflation is currently at 12.3 percent. Interest rates are forecast to increase in the coming months, vastly increasing mortgages and rents, putting more pressure on workers. School funding has only increased 1.4 percent this year, under conditions where schools are unable to pay energy costs without slashing jobs, increasing class sizes and removing access to a broad curriculum. The NEU’s “preliminary ballot” was held in September, with the union asking members if they were prepared to strike for “a fully funded above inflation pay rise.” Educators across the sector throughout the UK have voted overwhelmingly in a series of indicative ballots for strike action signalling their intention to fight. Last week teaching unions in Northern Ireland voted to take action short of a strike, after rejecting an “inadequate” two-year pay offer. Members of Scotland’s largest teaching union, the EIS, are also being balloted for strike action. Many teachers struggle to make ends meet. In their notes for union delegates to help mobilise support for the ballot the NEU states, “Pay for teachers had already fallen by around a fifth in real terms against inflation since 2010, even before the huge inflation increases in 2022.” The union has repeatedly claimed in those years that there was no stomach in its membership for strike action, but this result has proved the opposite. The ballot vote was the largest turnout in decades. The largest education union in Europe, with over 450,000 members across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the NEU bureaucracy have sat on their hands for months despite this sentiment. The union has delayed launching an official strike ballot since June, when the government announced an initial derisory pay offer of 3 percent. This has meant that teachers, a powerful battalion of the working class, have been unable to strike alongside hundreds of thousands of postal workers, rail and other transport workers and BT workers who have been taking industrial action for months. Instead of mobilising for strike action to defeat an intransigent government and win teachers’ demands, the union bureaucracy pleads for negotiations to end the struggle before it has even begun.
Is the UK About to Hit the Wall? by Yves Smith Many commentators have discussed the near-certainty of de-industrialization of Germany due to high energy costs and how the loss of revenues and jobs would propagate rapidly through its economy and then to the rest of the EU, since Germany is a major driver of EU activity. Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Pozsar wrote in late August that $2 trillion in German value added depended on $20 billion of cheap Russian gas.The last two months have featured stories of Germany companies suspending operations or cutting production, from stainless steel to aluminum to papermaking to chemicals, and that list is not complete.The EU is engaged in yet another rearranging-deck-chairs-on-the-Titanic exercise of trying to come up with gas price caps. Gazprom has already said that’s a no go. From RT:Plans to set a price cap on Russian gas sales, which are currently being considered by Western leaders, would cause supplies to be halted, according to Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller. “We rely on the contracts that have been signed. A unilateral decision of the kind is, of course, a violation of essential terms of the agreements which would lead to a termination of supplies,” Miller said on Sunday in an interview with Russia 1 TV.It’s not clear why any other gas suppliers whose customers contracted for spot or other variable prices should go along either. The EU is trying to solve this problem by calling the cap something else. From Reuters:The latest draft conclusions showed that the leaders would agree to “explore a temporary dynamic price corridor” on natural gas until an alternative EU gas price benchmark is in place.Belgium, Greece, Italy and Poland want a price corridor for wholesale transactions, which would mean a price range with a central value below the market price.The draft said the leaders would also “explore a temporary EU framework to cap the price of gas in electricity generation at a level that helps bring down electricity prices without … leading to overall increased gas consumption.”Now there are bad design elements in the European electricity scheme that likely does to some degree lead to price distortions on the upside. However, the EU is facing a chronic gas shortage. It not only will have trouble getting through the winter, but its supply woes will continue in 2023 and will be even worse next winter unless Europe kisses and makes up with Russia, which seems impossible at this juncture.Yet instead of focusing on the necessity of rationing, the European Commission is dithering with the fantasy of technocratic fixes, which is likely to result in disruptive, unplanned rationing in the form of blackouts.Italy, Europe’s other industrial engine, is also a heavy user of Russian gas, but the business press has yet to focus as intently on its developing tsuris.The reason for the long-winded German detour is to suggest, despite Germany having a poor prognosis, that the UK might hit the acute phase sooner.In particular, the UK entered this crisis in weaker condition than major EU countries thanks to Brexit. And Brexit is also exacerbating inflation. From Euronews in July:His “sobering” conclusion is that in the final quarter of 2021, GDP (gross domestic product) was 5.2% smaller, investment 13.7% lower, and goods trade 13.6% lower than what they would have been had the UK remained in the EU.“The UK had a particularly deep recession in 2020, but it ended COVID restrictions sooner than many of its peers, thanks in part to starting its vaccination campaign early in 2021. That should have made its recovery from COVID faster than other countries, not slower,” he says.“It should trouble Labour and the Conservatives that the economy is lagging so far behind its peers.”…. The fact that the UK imports a lot of food and is structurally vulnerable to a triple crisis (a simultaneous currency, banking and fiscal crisis a la Iceland) by virtue of being a small open economy with an outsized banking sector does not help.
UK prime minister Liz Truss resigns---UK prime minister Liz Truss resigned today as leader of the ruling Conservative Party just over six weeks into her premiership, marking the shortest period in office for a British leader.In a statement outside the prime minister's official Downing Street residence, Truss said she was resigning because she cannot deliver the mandate on which she was elected by her party's members. An election to replace her will be completed within the next week. "This will ensure that we remain on a path to deliver our fiscal plans and maintain our country's economic stability and national security. I will remain as prime minister until a successor has been chosen," she said.Truss' fiscal plans ended up being her undoing. A central pillar of her leadership campaign over the summer was a pledge to cut taxes. But whenthe cuts were announced in a "mini-budget" on 23 September, it sparked turmoil in the UK gilts and currency markets, forced the Bank of England to intervene with an emergency bond-buying programme and prompted a rebuke from the IMF.The market reaction led Truss to fire her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng. His successor, Jeremy Hunt, subsequently scrapped most of the tax cuts but this proved insufficient to quell a growing rebellion among Truss' own members of parliament (MPs), several of whom went on the record in recent days to call on her to quit. The resignation of her home secretary Suella Braverman yesterday, followed by chaotic scenes in parliament during a vote on hydraulic fracturing (fracking) for shale gas, sealed Truss' fate.The focus has already switched to her successor. Hunt has ruled himself out of the running. Rishi Sunak — finance minister in Boris Johnson's administration and one of the final two in the last leadership contest — is being tipped as a contender, as is leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, also a leadership contender last time around. Even Boris Johnson may throw his hat in the ring, according to some UK newspaper reports.Whoever becomes prime minister will have to decide which of Truss' policies to jettison. Among the government policies announced during her 45 days in charge is a package of measures designed to tackle high energy prices and improve the UK's energy security. The energy plan included lifting a moratorium on fracking for shale gas in England, launching a new North Sea oil and gas licensing round and fixing the energy retail price cap for a "typical" home at £2,500/yr ($2,816/yr) for two years.The last of those three measures has since been watered down as part of new finance minister Hunt's attempts to restore the UK's fiscal credibility, with the energy price guarantee now only in place until April 2023. The other two measures are already in motion. The licensing round kicked off on 7 Octoberand the fracking moratorium was lifted on 22 September, although there is opposition to the latter among many MPs. It is also not clear how fracking would go ahead in practice. The government said it would only happen in areas where there is clear local support, but no details on how this would be measured have been provided.
No comments:
Post a Comment