Fed Governor Lael Brainard sees high rates ahead even with progress on inflation - Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Thursday that interest rates need to remain high, even though there are signs inflation is starting to ease. Echoing recent comments from her fellow policymakers, Brainard insisted that the Fed won't waiver in its commitment to taming prices that have come down some in recent months but remain near four-decade highs. "Even with the recent moderation, inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time to make sure inflation returns to 2% on a sustained basis," she said in remarks prepared for a speech in Chicago. Her comments come less than two weeks before the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee holds its next meeting, on Jan. 31-Feb. 1. Markets are assigning a near-100% probability that the FOMC will raise its benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point, taking it to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%, according to CME Group data. That, however, would represent another less-severe step in the Fed's move to tighten monetary policy. As Brainard put it, the FOMC in December "downshifted" the level of its rate increases to half a point, after three consecutive increases of three-quarters of a percentage point. "This will enable us to assess more data as we move the policy rate closer to a sufficiently restrictive level, taking into account the risks around our dual-mandate goals," she said. Brainard pointed to a number of areas where she sees inflation starting to come down. She noted weaker numbers recently in retail sales and wages, and expressed doubt that the economy is seeing a 1970s-style wage-price spiral where higher earnings keep pushing prices higher and vice versa. According to the Fed's preferred measure, personal consumption expenditures prices excluding food and energy, inflation has been running at a 3.1% annualized pace over the last three months, well below the 4.5% 12-month pace. That's still ahead of the Fed's 2% goal, but reflective of some progress. Housing costs remain high, but Brainard and other Fed officials expect those to ease later in the year as apartment leases catch up with declines in commercial real estate. Consumer surveys of late also show that while inflation expectations remain elevated in the near term, they're more stable further out. "Together, the price trends in core goods and nonhousing services, the tentative indications of some deceleration in wages, the evidence of anchored expectations, and the scope for margin compression may provide some reassurance that we are not currently experiencing a 1970s-style wage-price spiral," Brainard said. Despite tough talk from Fed officials on rates, markets think the central bank will fall short of the 5.1% peak in the fed funds rate that they pointed to in December. Instead, traders see the rate topping out about a quarter percentage point below that, and the Fed starting to reduce rates later this year. Brainard gave no indication that rates would be coming down anytime soon. "Inflation is high, and it will take time and resolve to get it back down to 2%. We are determined to stay the course," she said.
Fed Vice Chair Brainard: Inflation is easing, but our work isn't done — The Federal Reserve is seeing progress in its battle to bring down US inflation and remains laser-focused on reaching the Fed’s 2% target — but policy will have to remain restrictive for “some time” to come. That’s the message Thursday from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, speaking at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “Even with the recent moderation, inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time to make sure inflation returns to 2% on a sustained basis,” Brainard said. Last year, the Federal Reserve undertook a series of seven rate hikes, bringing the benchmark rate from near zero to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. After four consecutive blockbuster hikes that were three-quarters of a point in size, the Fed downshifted during its last meeting, approving a half-point increase. That slower pace allows the Fed to pore through more data and assess the risks that come with tightening while trying to maintain the other end of its dual mandate: maximum employment. “It takes a while for monetary tightening to really work through and observe [the effects],” she said. “But right now where we are, which we moved very quickly, we’re now in restrictive territory. We’rpe probing for what we call the sufficiently restrictive level of the rate at which we can be confident that inflation is going to come down over time.” Inflation has declined in recent months, she said, noting data points such as the declining Producer Price Index that suggests a weakening in manufacturing, falling retail sales that suggest pullbacks in consumer spending, and drops in disposable income that suggest Americans are running down their savings. “Looking forward, weaker readings on real income, wealth, and sentiment, along with indicators of spending on services, such as the ISM services index, point to subdued growth in 2023,” she said. The US labor market is showing some “tentative signs” of cooling, she said, noting declines in weekly hours, temp services and monthly payroll growth. However, the job market is likely to stay tight due in part to a flattening out of the labor force participation rate, which remains about 1 percentage point below pre-pandemic levels, she said. Still, Brainard said she believes it’s possible the Fed could achieve a soft landing — a reduction in inflation without a significant amount of job loss. “This being a global phenomenon has really created a very unique set of challenges,” she said. “That said, I’d say for the United States, recent data suggests slightly better prospects that we could see continued disinflation in the context of moderate growth.”
Fed's Bullard urges colleagues not to 'stall' on remaining rate increases (Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday that U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers should get the policy rate of interest above 5% "as quickly as we can" before pausing rate increases needed to battle an ongoing outbreak of inflation. Asked during a Wall Street Journal event if he was open to another half point rate increase at the Fed's upcoming meeting, Bullard responded "why not go to where we're supposed to go?...Why stall?" The most recent Fed projections showed policymakers expecting to raise the target interest rate from the current range between 4.25% and 4.5% to above 5% this year, but several officials have said they want to move in quarter point increases at upcoming meetings. Investors in fed funds futures anticipate that is what the Fed will do when the central bank holds its next two-day meeting on Jan. 31-Feb. 1. Bullard said he felt the policy of "frontloading" rate increases with larger three-quarter-point and half-point increases had worked well, and that he saw no reason to stop until the policy rate was nearer the level seen as a likely stopping point. In projections issued in December the median official saw that "terminal" rate at around 5.1%. With the risks of inflation remaining higher than expected and the economy at this point performing better than anticipated, "let's move the policy rate to the right level...then we'll see how 2023 unfolds."
Fed's Collins backs slower pace of hikes to get rates above 5% -- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she favors a more moderate pace of interest-rate increases, even as the central bank continues to tighten policy to reduce high inflation. "Now that rates are in restrictive territory and we may — based on current indicators — be nearing the peak, I believe it is appropriate to have shifted from the initial expeditious pace of tightening to a slower pace," she told a housing conference hosted by her bank on Thursday. "More measured rate adjustments in the current phase will better enable us to address the competing risks monetary policy now faces." Officials hiked by a half point last month to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, slowing the pace of rate increases after four straight 75 basis-point moves. Projections released at that meeting showed officials expecting to lift rates to 5.1% this year, according to their median projection, and holding at that level through 2023. Collins, who does not vote on policy this year, lined up with that outlook. "As monetary policymakers, restoring price stability remains our imperative," she said. "Thus, I anticipate the need for further rate increases, likely to just above 5%, and then holding rates at that level for some time." Investors expect the Fed to downshift to a quarter-percentage point increase when officials meet Jan. 31-Feb. 1 and hike at least one more time at that pace, with rates peaking around 4.9% — slightly below the central bank's forecast in December — before beginning rate cuts later this year. The Fed's aggressive tightening campaign to cool price pressures has raised rates from nearly zero in March 2022, fomenting concern that the US economy could tip into a severe recession. But Collins played down this peril. She said the resilience of the labor market and ongoing business and household spending "make me reasonably optimistic that there is a pathway to reducing inflation without a significant economic downturn."
Fed can shrink reserves by $2 trillion without missing a beat: Waller - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said roughly $2 trillion of reserves could be taken out of the banking system without disrupting banks. Waller discussed monetary policy and his views on the economy during an hourlong event Friday afternoon hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. During the event, he said the Fed could reduce its balance sheet significantly before the supply of reserves became a binding constraint. "We have the standing reverse repo facility and everyday firms are handing us over $2 trillion in liquidity they don't need. They give us reserves, we give them securities. They don't need the cash," Waller said. "It sounds like you should be able to take $2 trillion out and nobody will miss it, because they're already trying to give it back and get rid of it." At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed expanded its balance sheet rapidly by purchasing Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to help support the U.S. economy. Between March 2020 and March 2022, it more than doubled its holdings from $4.2 trillion of assets to nearly $9 trillion. When the Fed's assets grow, so do its liabilities. This includes reserves, which are deposits from commercial banks held at the central bank. As the Fed sheds assets, which it has been doing since last June, the supply of available reserves also diminishes. Some Fed watchers have cautioned the central bank not to go too far in its balance sheet reduction, noting that doing so could be detrimental to banks. Since the Fed began expanding its balance sheet as means for impacting monetary policy after the subprime mortgage crisis — a process known as quantitative easing — banks have come to rely on reserves more heavily to satisfy liquidity requirements.
Fed's Powell noted "balance of risks" in rate hike path from 2018 onwards, transcripts show -- (Reuters) - Two months before he became Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell urged a gradual approach to raising interest rates so that the U.S. central bank could more adequately assess the true strength of the labor market against tepid inflation, foreshadowing a cautiousness on policy that would persist under his leadership until the coronavirus crisis and its aftermath forced a wholesale change. Transcripts from the Fed's 2017 policy meetings released Friday showed Powell, then a Fed Board governor, navigating through that year's major policy shifts - the start of balance sheet reduction and a pick-up in the pace of interest rate increases - against a backdrop of sluggish inflation and a job market he and others viewed as approaching full employment. "I see a need to balance the risk of an overheating economy against that of stubbornly too-low inflation, and I continue to view a gradual approach to removing accommodation as appropriately balancing these two risks," Powell said on Dec. 13, the second day of that year's final policy meeting and 41 days after he had been tapped by President Donald Trump to replace Janet Yellen as Fed chief. "A gradual pace... will allow us to make a better assessment of the degree of labor market tightness as well as the underlying trend of inflation," Powell said as members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee gave their outlook for 2018 and beyond, according to the transcript. The transcripts, which are released each January with a five-year delay, also showed debate among Fed policymakers about when to start reducing its $4.5 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the financial crisis. Powell faces a similar task this year but with the inflation problem turned on its head. Instead, too-high inflation is the culprit and the Fed, after the fastest pace of interest rate hikes in 40 years, is navigating a tricky task of raising rates high enough to bring inflation down to its 2% target against a very strong labor market, while also allowing time for its campaign of monetary tightening to be fully absorbed by the economy. As such, the Fed, which has been under Powell's leadership since early 2018, has flagged a downshift this year to a gradual pace of interest rate increases to reduce the risk of a policy mistake. Back in 2017, the central bank raised interest rates three times as it slowly ramped up borrowing costs amid brisk economic growth and strong job gains that pushed the unemployment rate down to a more than 16-year low, even as inflation struggled to breach the Fed's 2% goal.
Larry Summers warns of 1970s economic crisis if banks back down on interest rates - Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned on Friday that backing down on interest rates as a means of controlling inflation could precipitate a 1970s-style economic crisis. “I think to suppose that some kind of relenting on an inflation target will be a salvation would be a costly error that would ultimately have adverse efforts, as it did in a spectacular way during the 1970s, for real economies and working people everywhere,” Summers said at a World Economic Forum panel in Davos, Switzerland. Many have drawn comparisons between the current economic situation and that of the ’70s, when the global economy faced a combination of high inflation and slow growth known as stagflation. Since the 1990s, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other central financial institutions have sought to prevent runaway inflation, setting a target inflation rate of 2 percent. As inflation soared over the last year, reaching a 40-year U.S. high of 9.1 percent in June, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have raised interest rates in an effort to bring it back down to the 2 percent target. The Federal Reserve has begun to slow its interest rate hikes in recent months as inflation has steadily declined. In December, the U.S. inflation rate dropped to 6.2 percent, down from 7.3 percent in November but still abnormally high. Amid this reality, some have recently suggested that the Federal Reserve and other central banks revise their inflation targets upward slightly. However, Summers warned on Friday that this would be a “grave error.” “I say that as someone who was negative on the idea that the United States should put in place a specific numerical target,” Summers added. “It seems to me, though, that … having reemphasized repeatedly the absolute commitment to the 2 percent inflation target, to then abandon the 2 percent inflation target would do very substantial damage to credibility.”
How the Federal Reserve Protects the Top One Percent - It’s hard to understand why the Federal Reserve kept interest rates very low for most of three decades and then shifted to keeping them unnecessarily high—until you appreciate one thing. A paramount goal of the Fed is helping owners of capital conserve and increase their concentrated wealth. Then the apparent inconsistency makes perfect sense. Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed are willing to impose significant costs on workers and families in order to reduce inflation. The Fed’s policy of raising interest rates—by more than four percentage points in the last year—can work only if the higher interest rates end up throwing millions of workers out of their jobs. In euphemistic but telling Fedspeak, Powell declared in his December 14 press conference: “Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal … Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions.”This focus on inflation, by promoting high unemployment, contradicts the dual mandate given to the Fed by Congress. Specifically, the Federal Reserve Act mandates that the central bank conduct monetary policy “so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” Yet the Fed has been laser-focused on keeping inflation extremely low no matter the harm it may cause to the labor market or the economy. Why does the Federal Reserve treat its high-employment mandate so cavalierly when inflation is above 2 percent? The answer stems from the fact that since its founding, Fed officials have seen the world through “finance colored” glasses. Financiers do not like high inflation. Like all creditors who lend money today to be paid back in the future, financiers hate getting paid back in dollars that are worth less than the dollars they lent out in the first place. In other words: Creditors hate unexpected inflation that was not factored into the rates they charged borrowers. And when the creditors talk, the Fed tends to listen. One reason the Fed listens is that it needs the banks and other financial institutions, with which it interacts daily, to help it carry out its monetary policy. Another reason, perhaps a more political and self-interested reason, is that bankers and other financiers sit on the boards of directors of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks and have a role in making monetary-policy decisions. Banks and other financial institutions provide “revolving door” jobs for outgoing Federal Reserve Board governors and staff. And the Fed counts on banks and financial institutions to stand up for central bank “independence” when Congress or the president try to influence monetary-policy decisions. However, banks and financiers are not the only powerful actors influencing the Fed. Nonfinancial business leaders might not be as inflation-phobic as financiers. Still, they have other reasons for wanting the Fed to downplay the “maximum employment” part of its mandate. As the economist Michal Kalecki noted in the 1940s, capitalists are wary of sustained high employment because it tends to empower workers by reducing their fear of the bosses’ biggest weapon: exile to the reserve army of the unemployed. So big corporate CEOs from most industries, like others who make up the top one percent (or higher) of wealth owners, are aligned in prioritizing inflation-fighting over maintaining high levels of employment. In short, as a first approximation, the current Fed policy of rapidly raising interest rates to fight inflation by throwing people out of work serves as a wealth protection device for the top one percent.
Fed Chair Powell tests positive for COVID-19, has mild symptoms -Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms. Powell, 69, received the positive test Wednesday and "is up to date with COVID-19 vaccines and boosters," the Fed said in a statement, adding that he is working remotely while isolating at home. The next meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is set for Jan. 31-Feb. 1, and Powell is scheduled to deliver an in-person press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Washington after the meeting concludes. The COVID-19 landscape is different than it was earlier in the pandemic: Most people have hybrid immunity from vaccinations or infections, and antivirals are widely available to older adults and those with compromised immune systems.
Can the Government Pay for its Spiking Interest Expenses? Time to Look at Interest Payments against Tax Receipts - By Wolf Richter --We have a situation here. Folks are out there promoting the idea that the Fed cannot keep interest rates at 4.5% for long, and that it certainly cannot hike interest rates to 5.0% or 5.5%, because the amount that the federal government pays in interest expense is spiking and the government cannot afford to pay the spiking interest expense, and the Fed will have to pivot any moment now and cut interest rates because otherwise the government would go bankrupt or whatever.This stuff is now everywhere, propagated by all kinds of newsletters, and by bond fund managers and hedge fund managers that are losing their shirts with these higher interest rates, and the pivot mongers have grabbed a hold of it, and they’re on TV with this stuff, pushing the idea that the Fed must cut interest rates or else the government will go broke or whatever. What these pivot mongers are willfully omitting is that tax receipts – which pay for the interest expense – have spiked by a huge amount, and that interest expense as a percent of tax receipts had hit a historic low in Q1 2022, and has ticked up from that historic low but remains near historic lows. Interest expense as a percent of tax receipts is the primary measure of whether or not the government can afford the interest expense: It was around 50% in the 1980s; in Q3 2022, it was 22.9%: The thing is, inflation has been huge. Inflation means that government tax receipts are spiking, thereby lowering the burden of paying for the existing debt, thereby allowing the government to borrow more because the burden of the old debt gets extinguished by surging tax receipts due to inflation, which is why governments love inflation. But inflation is an enemy of the people. And when inflation rises beyond certain low-ish levels – the Fed thinks that’s about 2% per its core PCE measure – it will ultimately tangle up the economy, leading to all kinds of long-lasting damage. And that puts the brakes on the government’s wishes to inflate away the results of deficit spending, namely ballooning debts and interest expenses. What happened is this: The government’s debt spiked by 34%, or by $8 trillion, in three years, from $23.2 trillion Q1 2020 to $31.4 trillion today. In 2020 alone, $4.5 trillion were added to this debt. In 2021 and 2022, a combined $3.5 trillion were added (a rate of about $1.75 trillion per year). And it continues. This spike in the debt was caused by ridiculous amounts of stimulus spending, handed to businesses, state and local governments, and consumers. This additional $8 trillion in debt, that 34% spike in total debt, quickly added a lot of interest expense for the government. In addition, and gradually, old Treasury securities mature and are replaced by new Treasury securities with higher interest rates, and the higher interest costs of those new securities are filtering into the interest expense. Fueled by the 34% in additional debt, and now gradually further fueled by the higher interest rates spreading into the overall debt, total interest expense in Q3 spiked by 24% from a year ago and by 43% from two years ago. And this is the kind of scary chart the pivot mongers are circulating while omitting the huge spike in tax receipts and the historically low burden of this interest expense as a percent of tax receipts that we saw in the chart above: Don’t get me wrong: This amount of deficit spending is nuts, it’s very inflationary and contributed to the spike in inflation we have now. It’s a terrible policy that Congress pursued. And there are a lot of issues with that. But the burden of this interest expense is not one of them – thanks in part to surging inflation. Tax receipts spiked by 21.5% year-over-year and by 52% from two years ago. This is what pays for the interest expense:
Record-Breaking 20Y Treasury Auction Sends Yields Tumbling -- It's not as if the bond market needed another reason to send yields sharply lower after the BOJ last night, and the trifecta of recessionary prints today (huge misses in PPI, retail sales and industrial production) had already hammered yields, but it got it anyway moments ago when today's sale of $12BN in 20Y paper was nothing short of blockbuster with at least one new record set.The high yield of 3.678% was not only sharply lower than last month's 3.935% and a far cry from the 4%+ auctions in October and November, but also stopped through the When Issued 2.705 by 2.7bps, tied for the third biggest stop through on record in the 20Y auction's history.The bid to cover was even more remarkable: jumping from last month's 2.68, the January BTC was 2.83, the highest on record and above the previous all time high of 2.80 in April 2022.The internals were also stellar with Indirects awarded 76.25% just shy of another all time high (hit in July 22 when it came at 78.0%) and with Directs awarded 15.6%, below the recent average of 17.2%, Dealers were left holding just 8.1%, which was also just shy of the record low 7.9% hit in July 2020. Overall, this was a stellar, record-breaking 20Y auction, and no wonder why the 10Y yield dumped from 3.43% to 3.38% after news of the stellar demand for today's paper hit.
Davos 2023: U.S. consumers in 'good shape' as wages grow -BofA CEO - (Reuters) - U.S. consumers are still in "pretty good shape," even as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to tame inflation, Bank of America (BAC.N) Chief Executive Brian Moynihan told Reuters during the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting. "The consumers are spending, their wages are growing and frankly, there's still a lot of stimulus," Moynihan told Reuters in an interview in the ski resort of Davos, Switzerland. The U.S. economy could enter into a mild recession later this year or next year, he said, adding that for the rest of the world, the bank has predicted growth. Wall Street's biggest banks have stockpiled more rainy-day funds to prepare for a possible recession, while showing caution about forecasting income growth given the uncertainty over the Fed's interest rate policy. Moynihan and other business executives met with a group of U.S. Congressional leaders in Davos, he said, without specifying the participants.
Fed's Brainard sees economy improving, flags concerns around housing -Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard sees economic conditions moving in the right direction and sees room for a so-called "soft landing" for the economy after a year of record-high inflation. Speaking at an event at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business on Thursday afternoon, Brainard, the second-ranking member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, said inflation has largely subsided in most spending categories aside from housing costs and non-housing services. She also noted that a cooling labor market has led to slower wage growth, but the overall employment picture remains strong. "It's possible that a continued moderation in output could facilitate continued easing of the labor market and reduction in inflation without a significant loss of employment," Brainard said. In her prepared remarks, Brainard dispelled concerns that rising wages in recent years, particularly those in traditionally low-income occupations, have been a driving force behind the runaway inflation seen in the U.S. during the past year and a half. Overall, wages have not kept pace with broader inflation, Brainard said, adding that the overall share of income that has been paid to labor has fallen during the past two years, putting it at or below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, she said, corporate profits as a share of the U.S. gross domestic product are near their post-World War II highs. She went on to say that instead of a wage-price spiral — a phenomenon in which rising wages drive rising prices in a self-perpetuating cycle — the U.S. has actually seen a "price-price spiral," in which the cost of goods and services are being marked up at rates exceeding their rising input costs. Brainard's assessment of economic conditions echoes the arguments of liberal Congress members, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who have argued that price gouging has played a substantial role in the 40-year-high inflation seen in recent years.
Why China’s potential economic rebound could boost the US - China could bounce back from its pandemic reopening swoon both stronger and sooner than expected, offering a rare source of optimism for the U.S. economy amid rising recession fears. The Chinese economy grew just 3 percent in 2022 and rose at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, according to statistics released Monday by Beijing. While that’s sharply down from its 8.1 percent expansion in 2021, both the annual and quarterly growth rates beat expectations and offered hope for a swift 2023 recovery. China still faces several obstacles as it crawls out of a pandemic-induced slump, including issues within its real estate markets and the country’s ongoing refusal to approve Western COVID-19 vaccines with greater efficacy. The country’s population also shrank last year for the first time since the 1960s, which is bad sign for longer-term economic growth. But economists are hopeful that a recovering Chinese economy could keep up demand for U.S. products and reduce pressure on supply chains as Americans face a potential recession this year. “China’s reopening — uneven or not — is well underway and may be a catalyst for supply chain fixes and more global demand,” wrote Jeffrey Buchbinder and Thomas Shipp of LPL Research in a Tuesday analysis. China spent the end of 2022 roiled by protests over its strict coronavirus containment policies and a surge in cases following the relaxation of those restrictions. Both took a serious toll on the economy as millions of Chinese fell ill and businesses struggled to operate. “Data in December surprised broadly to the upside, but remains weak, particularly across demand-side segments such as retail spending,” explained Louise Loo, an economist at Oxford Economics. “The good news is that there are now signs of stabilization,” she continued.
"The Debt Limit Is Going To Be A Problem": Goldman's 2023 Political And Policy Outlook -- Excerpted from the latest report by Alec Phillips, chief political economist at Goldman Sachs
- The 118th Congress got off to a rocky start and we expect last week’s political uncertainty to return several times over the course of the year, in light of recent rules changes, the extremely thin margins of control in the House, and a divided Congress.
- Fiscal deadlines will pose a greater risk this year than they have for a decade. Congress will need to raise the debt limit before it binds—potentially by August and very likely by October—and renew government spending authority by Sept. 30 to avoid a government shutdown. A close call seems likely on both issues and it is more likely than not in our view that at least one of these two risks will materialize this year.
- Lawmakers are likely to continue to focus on tightening US-China policy, and we believe there is still substantial support among Republicans for Ukraine military support, though it has frayed around the edges.
- There also appears to be a fair chance of a narrow package of energy-related reforms. While we do not expect changes to the substantial renewable energy subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act this year, we see risks over the medium term.
- Outside of Congress, changes to federal labor regulations also look likely to move forward this year and could have a macroeconomic effect. That said, we do not expect those policies to come into play until late this year, at earliest, and possibly not for quite a while longer if they face legal challenges.
What to know about the debt ceiling deadline - Washington is gearing up for a fight over the fast-approaching debt ceiling limit after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced last week that the country will hit its borrowing cap of around $31.4 trillion on Thursday. Thus far, lawmakers have held firm on their positions on the debt limit, with Democrats arguing for a swift raise in the ceiling and Republicans reluctant to negotiate without guarantees of spending cuts — a position the White House has said it will not negotiate on. As the debt limit approaches, lawmakers will be pressured to take legislative action to avoid the potentially dangerous fallout of an American default on its national debt. The debt limit is the cap on the amount of money the U.S. government can borrow to meet its existing financial obligations. And since the government spends more money each year than it raises — operating at a budget deficit — it must borrow funds to make payments on programs such as Social Security and military spending. But a critical point to remember is that raising the debt limit does not authorize new spending. Rather, it just allows the government to fund its existing obligations. Since the amount of government spending is one of the fundamental differences between Republicans and Democrats, the issue of the debt ceiling almost always means splits over whether to raise the debt ceiling, or what programs to raise it for, arise in Washington. While Yellen announced last week that the country is expected to reach its debt limit on Thursday, the government still has the ability to exercise other options — which Yellen called “extraordinary measures” — to continue to pay its bills. Those tricks, Yellen warned lawmakers, could be fully used by June, at which point the U.S. truly would have reached a point of not being able to finance its obligations. Members of Congress have two options in front of them to avoid a debt default. They have the choice to pass legislation that increases the debt limit to a new amount, allowing the U.S. to take on more debt to make payments on its obligations. Or it could vote to temporarily suspend the debt limit through a set date. What happens if lawmakers don’t lift or suspend the debt ceiling? This question is tricky, because the U.S. has never intentionally defaulted on its debt because of the debt ceiling. We know that the country would no longer be able to issue new debt, meaning it would not have enough money to pay its bills and would effectively default on its obligations. But because of the potential harm that a default would cause to the country’s economic standing, this has never happened. Economists have warned that a U.S. default would be devastating to the global economy, potentially dunking the world into an economic crisis.
House Republicans Prepare To Execute Emergency Strategy For Breaching Debt Limit --House Republicans are preparing to give the Treasury Department guidance if the White House and Congress can't agree to lift the nation's debt ceiling. The plan was part of the private deal struck between House conservatives and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in order for McCarthy to win speakership, according to Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who helped broker the deal. Roy told the Washington Post that McCarthy agreed to adopt a payment prioritization plan by the end of the first quarter of the year. According to the Post, the emergency contingency plan will need to include major spending cuts from the Biden administration, in exchange for which Republicans will sign off on raising the current limit of $31.4 trillion before the Treasury Department can't borrow any more. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the Treasury department will enact "extraordinary measures" next week so the government can keep its payment obligations - however she couldn't guarantee that the US will make it beyond early June without default. Also on Friday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre made clear that the administration will not negotiate. In the preliminary stages of being drafted, the GOP proposal would call on the Biden administration to make only the most critical federal payments if the Treasury Department comes up against the statutory limit on what it can legally borrow. For instance, the plan is almost certain to call on the department to keep making interest payments on the debt, according to four people familiar with the internal deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. House Republicans' payment prioritization plan may also stipulate that the Treasury Department should continue making payments on Social Security, Medicare and veterans benefits, as well as funding the military, two of the people said. –WaPo That said, Democrats are preparing to push back on the plan, and will likely note that any hypothetical proposal to triage Social Security, Medicare and benefits for veterans and the military would still leave out 'huge swaths of critical federal expenditures on things such as Medicaid, food safety inspections, border control and air traffic control,' etc. Democrats will also likely accuse Republicans of pandering to bondholders, which include Chinese banks, vs. Americans.
Biden knocks ‘fiscally demented’ Republicans in MLK Day speech - President Biden on Monday called Republicans “fiscally demented” and knocked GOP priorities during the keynote speech at the National Action Network’s (NAN) annual breakfast to mark Martin Luther King Jr. Day. “They’re gonna talk about big-spending Democrats again. Guess what? I reduced the deficit last year $350 billion. This year, federal deficit is down $1 trillion-plus. That’s a fact. And there’s gonna be hundreds of billions reduced over the next decade. But so what? These guys are the fiscally demented, I think. They don’t quite get it,” Biden said of Republicans, prompting laughter from the crowd. Biden in his speech offered sweeping remarks on his administration’s work on civil rights and called out Republicans for their economic stances in light of disparities faced by minority communities. “I think the economy — the way it should grow in America — is from the bottom up and the middle out. That way poor folks have a shot, middle-class people do well and the wealthy still do very well. They still do very well. But they start to pay their fair share,” Biden said. The president said he’s “ready to work” with Republicans who just took over the House, but said he was disappointed by the first few bills put forward in the chamber. “Like many Americans, I was disappointed to see the very first bill that House Republicans … are bringing to the floor. It would help the wealthy people and big corporations cheat on their taxes at the expense of ordinary middle-class taxpayers … This is their first bill and they campaigned on inflation. They didn’t say if elected their plan was to make inflation worse,” Biden said. Biden also knocked a House bill on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a proposal to implement a national sales tax — and vowed to veto the legislation if it gets through Congress.
Here We Go Again! It's Time For Another Debt Ceiling Fight - Here we go again. The clock is ticking down to another US debt ceiling fight. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the US government will officially bump up against the debt ceiling Thursday (Jan. 19). The debt ceiling is “the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare Benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds and other payments.” On Dec. 16, 2021, a law went into effect setting the new debt limit at $31.381 trillion. Once the government hits that debt level, it can no longer sell Treasuries or other debt instruments to fund spending. But this doesn’t mean the government will simply shut down. The Treasury Department can implement “extraordinary measures” in order to continue funding government operations. According to a letter Yellen sent to Congress, the Treasury will redeem existing investments and suspend future investments in the Civil Service Retirement Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. It will also suspend investment in a federal employee retirement system savings plan. According to Yellen, these moves will “reduce the amount of outstanding debt subject to the limit and temporarily provide extra capacity for Treasury to continue financing operations of the federal government.” It’s not clear how long the government can continue operating using these extraordinary measures. Most analysts estimate it will give Congress until sometime in June. It will depend somewhat on how much revenue the IRS collects this spring.
Biden, House GOP refuse to budge as key debt ceiling deadline looms - The Biden administration and House Republicans are heading toward an initial Thursday debt ceiling deadline without even a hint of an endgame, ensuring a months-long standoff that’s poised to rattle financial markets amid worries about a recession this year. The two sides are effectively shrugging as the Treasury Department warns the country will hit the $31.4 trillion borrowing cap Thursday — though it’s not a hard deadline, as the department can still use extraordinary measures to pay the bills for another few months. But it means the potential economic doomsday clock is officially ticking, with House Republicans still insisting on massive spending cuts before they help raise the debt ceiling and Democrats refusing to engage the idea. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week that the U.S. likely won’t run out of cash or exhaust those measures until at least early June. Until then, the department is suspending investments in certain government retirement funds and hoping the House GOP and Democrats can come to an agreement to keep the government from careening into an economic crisis with far-reaching consequences. But Yellen’s warning to congressional leaders hasn’t spurred any movement toward even the beginning of a deal between Congress and the White House. The biggest legislative battle of the year is just beginning — and threatening to grow even messier than the 15-ballot speakership fight — and there’s no exit strategy in sight. Even some Republicans viewed as more likely to negotiate with the White House are already taking aim at the administration’s position after White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said last week: “We will not be doing any negotiation.” “Maybe we should not just draw lines in the sand immediately, including the White House,” said Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), calling the administration’s refusal to negotiate on fiscal reforms “disappointing.” “If we default on our debt, there’s going to be huge ramifications,” he said. “I’m not interested in bottoming out everybody’s 401k. They’ve already had a tough year.” The White House is already working behind the scenes to work around Speaker Kevin McCarthy, including dispatching its top advisers to meet with moderate Republicans — particularly those who won in districts President Joe Biden won in 2020 — in hopes Democrats can count on those GOP lawmakers to cross the aisle and lift the debt ceiling. “I think there is a real chance of that,” said one senior House Republican. “Kevin would probably love for that to happen because it gets him out of — ‘it wasn’t me.’”
US hits debt ceiling, prompting Treasury to take extraordinary measures --The US hit the debt ceiling set by Congress on Thursday, forcing the Treasury Department to start taking extraordinary measures to keep the government paying its bills and escalating pressure on Capitol Hill to avoid a catastrophic default. The battle lines for the high-stakes fight have already been set. Hardline Republicans, who have enormous sway in the House because of the party’s slim majority, have demanded that lifting the borrowing cap be tied to spending reductions. The White House countered that it will not offer any concessions or negotiate on raising the debt ceiling. And with the solution to the debt ceiling drama squarely in lawmakers’ hands, fears are growing that the partisan brinksmanship could result in the nation defaulting on its debt for the first time ever – or coming dangerously close to doing so. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy Thursday, informing him that the nation’s outstanding debt is at its statutory limit of $31.4 trillion and that the agency will implement extraordinary measures so it doesn’t default on its debt, which would have enormous consequences on the US economy, global financial stability and many Americans. She said the measures would last through June 5. This buys Congress some time – but how long the extraordinary measures can last is subject to “considerable uncertainty,” she wrote, stressing that it’s a challenge to forecast how many financial obligations the federal government must pay and how much revenue it will take in months into the future. “I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” she wrote. The announcement follows the warning Yellen sent last week about the approaching debt limit and the temporary Band-aid of the extraordinary measures. But her missive has failed to spark bipartisan discussion so far. Instead, both Republicans and Democrats reaffirmed their rigid positions over the past week.
US Treasury Hits Debt Ceiling, Begins Using "Extraordinary Measures", Yellen Tells Congress - in a letter to House speaker Kevin McCarthy, Yellen today wrote that "beginning on January 19, the outstanding debt of the United States was projected to reach the statutory limit" and that the "Treasury began using extraordinary measures" today. Some more details from the letter: Dear Mr. Speaker: I write to keep you apprised of actions the Treasury Department is taking in regard to the debt limit. In my letter of January 13, 2023, I noted that Public Law 117-73 increased the statutory debt limit to a level of $31.381 trillion, and informed you that beginning on January 19, the outstanding debt of the United States was projected to reach the statutory limit. This letter serves to notify you, pursuant to 5 U.S.C. § 8348(l)(2), of the extraordinary measures Treasury began using today. First, I have determined that, by reason of the statutory debt limit, I will be unable to fully invest the portion of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) not immediately required to pay beneficiaries, and that a “debt issuance suspension period” will begin on Thursday, January 19, 2023, and last through Monday, June 5, 2023. My predecessors have declared debt issuance suspension periods under similar circumstances. With these determinations, the Treasury Department will suspend additional investments of amounts credited to, and redeem a portion of the investments held by, the CSRDF, as expressly authorized by law. In addition, because the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act of 2006 provides that investments in the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund (PSRHBF) shall be made in the same manner as investments for the CSRDF, Treasury will suspend additional investments of amounts credited to the PSRHBF. By law, the CSRDF and the PSRHBF will be made whole once the debt limit is increased or suspended. Federal retirees and employees will be unaffected by these actions. As I stated in my January 13 letter, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. Government months into the future. I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States. Sincerely, Janet L. Yellen
U.S. hits debt ceiling as partisan standoff sparks economic worries (Reuters) - The U.S. government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday, amid a standoff between the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Joe Biden's Democrats on lifting the ceiling, which could lead to a fiscal crisis in a few months. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed congressional leaders including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that her department had begun using extraordinary cash management measures that could stave off default until June 5. Republicans, with a newly won House majority, aim to use the time until the Treasury's emergency maneuvers are exhausted to exact spending cuts from Biden and the Democratic-led Senate. Corporate leaders and at least one credit ratings agency warned a long standoff could rattle markets and unsettle an already shaky global economy. Yellen warned that the June date was subject to "considerable uncertainty" due to the challenge of forecasting payments and government revenues months into the future. "I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States," Yellen told congressional leaders in a letter Thursday. But there was no sign that either Republicans or Biden's Democrats were willing to budge. Republicans are trying to use their narrow House majority and the debt ceiling to force cuts to government programs, and argue that the Treasury could avoid default during a standoff by prioritizing debt payments. This idea has been explored in past standoffs, but financial experts have questioned its feasibility. The White House is rejecting the idea out of hand. "There will be no negotiations over the debt ceiling," White House deputy press secretary Olivia Dalton reiterated Thursday aboard Air Force One. "Congress must address this without conditions as they did three times under (Republican former President) Donald Trump,”
IMF says failure to increase U.S. debt ceiling would have 'serious repercussions'- (Reuters) - Failure to increase the U.S. debt ceiling would have serious repercussions for the United States and the global economy, an International Monetary Fund spokesperson said on Friday, urging involved parties to work to resolve the standoff. "The world economy is facing another challenging year. There would be serious repercussions if the U.S. debt ceiling were not increased, both for the U.S. and through negative spillovers to the world economy," the spokesperson said in response to a query from Reuters. "We strongly encourage the various parties to build the consensus needed to resolve this matter."
Why the White House is refusing to negotiate on the debt ceiling - The White House is refusing to negotiate with Republicans on raising the debt ceiling, a risky position that Democrats think is a political winner, but that also reflects their scars from previous fights. Taking the position that you won’t negotiate will allow Republicans to argue that a refusal by the White House to discuss spending cuts amid a rising debt crisis means President Biden is not acting in the public’s interest. But White House officials and Democrats believe they have much more leverage if they do not negotiate. One major reason the White House is confident in its position is that there have been numerous clean debt ceiling hikes in recent years, including when Donald Trump was president and Republicans controlled Congress. Congress has voted to increase the debt limit more than a dozen times in the last 25 years — including three times during the Trump administration. In 2021, after Biden took office, Senate Republicans initially balked at support for a clean increase of the debt ceiling. But after months of talks, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) eventually brokered a deal where enough Republicans joined Democrats to approve a one-time exemption to the filibuster on raising the debt ceiling. No Republicans backed the actual vote to raise the limit, which passed 50-49. The House, then controlled by Democrats, also passed the debt ceiling hike. The administration has argued that a new debt ceiling increase covers bills the government has already racked up and does not cover new spending.
US Treasury buys time for Biden and GOP on debt limit deal (AP) — The U.S. government bumped up against its debt limit Thursday, prompting the Treasury Department to take “extraordinary” accounting steps to avoid default — as friction between President Joe Biden and House Republicans raised concern about whether the U.S. can sidestep an economic crisis. The Treasury Department said in a letter to congressional leaders it had started taking “extraordinary measures” as the government had run up against its legal borrowing capacity of $31.381 trillion. An artificially imposed cap, the debt ceiling has been increased roughly 80 times since the 1960s. “I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in the letter. Markets so far remain relatively calm, given that the government can temporarily rely on accounting tweaks to stay open and any threats to the economy would be several months away. Even many worried analysts assume there will be a deal. But this particular moment seems more fraught than past brushes with the debt limit because of the broad differences between Biden and new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who presides over a restive Republican caucus. Those differences increase the risk that the government could default on its obligations for political reasons. That could rattle financial markets and plunge the world’s largest economy into a preventable recession. Biden and McCarthy, R-Calif., have several months to reach agreement as the Treasury Department imposes measures to keep the government operating until at least June. But years of intensifying partisan hostility have led to a conflicting set of demands that jeopardize the ability of the lawmakers to work together on a basic duty. Biden insists on a “clean” increase to the debt limit so that existing financial commitments can be sustained and is refusing to even start talks with Republicans. McCarthy is calling for negotiations that he believes will lead to spending cuts. It’s unclear how much he wants to trim and whether fellow Republicans would support any deal after a testy start to the new Congress that required 15 rounds of voting to elect McCarthy as speaker. Asked twice on Wednesday if there was evidence that House Republicans can ensure the government will avert a default, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said it’s their “constitutional responsibility.” She did not say whether the White House saw signs at this stage that a default was out of the question. “We’re just not going to negotiate that,” Jean-Pierre said. “They should feel the responsibility.” McCarthy said Biden needs to recognize the political realities that come with a divided government. The speaker equates the debt ceiling to a credit card limit and calls for a level of fiscal restraint that did not occur under President Donald Trump, a Republican who in 2019 signed a bipartisan suspension of the debt ceiling.
What the debt ceiling could mean for Social Security, Medicare - The clock is ticking for the U.S. to avoid a default on its debt, and some are sounding the alarm about potential disruptions to Social Security and Medicare. On Thursday, Jan. 19, the U.S. outstanding debt hit its statutory limit. The debt limit or debt ceiling is the total amount of money the U.S. can borrow to meet its legal obligations including Social Security and Medicare benefits, as well as military salaries, tax refunds, interest on the national debt and other payments. In a Jan. 13 letter, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, and other congressional leaders of the possible "irreparable harm" that could come to the U.S. economy, Americans' livelihoods and global financial stability if the problem goes unresolved. "I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States," Yellen wrote. On Thursday, the U.S. began taking "extraordinary measures" to avoid defaulting on its obligations, Yellen wrote in an updated letter to congressional leaders. The Treasury Department cannot provide an estimate of how long the government can expect to pay the government's obligations through extraordinary measures, according to Yellen. But it is unlikely that cash will be exhausted before early June, she said. Negotiations over the federal debt ceiling mark one of the first big challenges the new Congress will at as early as June for a train wreck on this issue," said Dan Adcock, director of government relations and policy at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security face. McCarthy has agreed to tie lifting the debt ceiling to spending cuts. That has advocates for Social Security and Medicare worried that lawmakers will try to amend those programs. "We're looking and Medicare. "The consequences are dire, because a default would not only disrupt Social Security and Medicare benefits, but also cause a global economic recession or worse," he said. The big question is whether the Treasury Department would be able to prioritize what does and does not get paid if that occurs. Unlike a government shutdown, where Social Security and Medicare benefits continue to flow, that may not be the case with a default, according to Adcock. "There's a good chance that benefits for retirees and people with disabilities and survivors would be disrupted," he said. Even a short delay could interfere with beneficiaries' ability to pay for health care, food, rent, utilities or other necessary expenses, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare said in a statement on Thursday.m
Trump: ‘Under no circumstances’ should Republicans cut Social Security or Medicare | --Former President Trump on Friday urged Republicans in Congress not to cut “a single penny” from Medicare or Social Security, a notable warning as some GOP lawmakers prepare to use the debt ceiling debate as leverage to try to secure spending cuts. “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security to help pay for Joe Biden’s reckless spending spree, which is more reckless than anybody’s ever done or had in the history of our country,” Trump said in a recorded video statement posted to Truth Social. The former president, who in November launched a 2024 White House campaign, called for cuts to a slew of other areas, including funding for “corrupt foreign countries,” “climate extremism,” “left-wing gender programs from our military” and “waste, fraud and abuse everywhere we can find it.” He lambasted Biden’s spending agenda, though the national debt increased by roughly $7 trillion during the Trump administration. “While we absolutely need to stop Biden’s out of control spending, the pain should be borne by Washington bureaucrats, not by hard-working American families and American seniors,” Trump said. “The seniors are being absolutely destroyed in the last two years.”
McCarthy tries to get out of his box on debt ceiling -House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is pressing for Democrats to come to the bargaining table and begin negotiations to address the nation’s debt limit, as he faces pressures within his party to make good on significant fiscal reform. McCarthy called on the White House to start discussions this week. But as both sides gear up for the fight over the country’s borrowing limit, the GOP leader is getting the cold shoulder from Democrats, who have characterized ideas floated on the other side as nonstarters. “Republicans are creating a crisis that need not exist,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pa.), top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said on Thursday, while decrying what he called “political games.” The impasse has heightened public concern in recent days, particularly as the Treasury Department has begun what it calls “extraordinary measures” to keep the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt. The standoff comes as House Republicans have ramped up calls to tie spending cuts to any bill raising or suspending the debt limit — legislation that caps how much outstanding national debt the government can hold to fulfill its financial duties. Democrats, by contrast, have instead insisted on a clean bill to address the debt ceiling. “It is essential for Congress to recognize that dealing with the debt ceiling is their constitutional responsibility,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said this week, calling for action to confront the debt limit “without conditions.” Democrats could certainly shift from demanding a clean bill, as lawmakers and the country face a time crunch to handle the matter in the months ahead. But it’s an approach that even GOP strategists say could be effective for the party, particularly as McCarthy works to find a plan his conference can get behind. “The Democrats are trying to find out if Republicans can come up with a unified position, and their general assumption is they won’t be able to,” said Republican strategist John Feehery, who is also a columnist for The Hill.
House GOP tempts fall government shutdown with longshot spending demands - House Republicans are vowing to put Don Quixote to shame by tilting at a huge windmill: slashing federal spending by at least $130 billion without cutting defense. It’s a proposition that’s severely unlikely on its face, before factoring in a Democratic Senate and White House that would never accept such cuts. Even the GOP’s fallback plan for avoiding a shutdown later this year — passing a short-term funding patch that would trigger reductions as an incentive for lawmakers to finish comprehensive spending bills — is inconceivable this term.In other words, the government funding process appears over before it really even started, as top House Democratic appropriator Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut quipped earlier this week. And that funding work is one of the few items Congress has to accomplish this year as part of basic governing. While lawmakers had always expected appropriations would be a struggle this term, the spending concessions negotiated by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his conservative foes have raised members’ blood pressure. Those House GOP demands could set the stage for a government shutdown, unless conservatives relent or enough moderate Democrats come to other Republicans’ rescue. “I don’t think we’ve had a really good full-throated discussion and debate about what is politically doable,” said Rep. Steve Womack of Arkansas, a Republican appropriator. McCarthy’s assurance that Republicans will look to cap funding for next fiscal year at fiscal 2022 levels is “simply a non-swimmer,” as he put it: “I think we’ll come to the realization that the ‘22 number was rolled off the tongue pretty well, but it’s a lift that we’re not going to be able to make.” In addition to Republicans’ pledge to slice $130 billion from the $1.7 trillion government funding package that passed in December, conservatives want to take the process old-school. Rather than passing one massive bill, they’re calling for individual votes on the dozen appropriations bills that set annual budgets for different agencies, a more time-consuming but transparent procedure that recent Congresses have struggled to complete. They’re also planning to allow an amendment free-for-all, which is all but certain to further drag out or trip things up. Additionally, House Republicans say they’ll refuse to negotiate with the Senate until the upper chamber passes its own spending bills, which hasn’t happened in years. Typically, Senate appropriators have instead entered into bipartisan talks with their House counterparts, only burning valuable floor time on a package they’re certain would pass both chambers. And GOP demands expand beyond funding the government. Republicans say they won’t back a debt limit increase unless they get their way on spending cuts or measures to reign in the ever-increasing $31 trillion debt. The timing of that could be tricky, however, as the Treasury Department could hit its credit card limit this summer, while federal cash expires on Sept. 30.
U.S. prepping major military package for Ukraine - The U.S. is gearing up to announce a major new weapons package for Ukraine on Friday, as top military leaders from around the world gather in Germany to discuss how to help Kyiv in its fight against Russia, according to three U.S. officials and another person familiar with the discussions. While the next tranche will include additional artillery, ammunition and armor — likely Stryker armored combat vehicles — the U.S. is not expected to sign off on American M1 Abrams tanks, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks ahead of an announcement. The Biden administration currently has no plans to send the Abrams, the Army’s 60-ton main battle tank, the people said. The reluctance is due to the logistical and maintenance challenges of the tanks, and not over concern that their transfer could escalate the conflict, one of the U.S. officials said. This person noted that the U.S. has helped Ukraine obtain Soviet-era tanks and supports the British decision to send around a dozen of its Challenger 2 tanks. The package will likely include a number of Strykers, an eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems, as well as ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles, two of the people said. POLITICO first reported last week that the Pentagon was considering sending Strykers in the upcoming tranche of aid. Reuters first reported that Boeing-made Small Diameter Bombs were under discussion. This package will not include the long-range Army Tactical Missile System that can reach deep behind Russian lines in Crimea or the Donbas, according to two of the people. The Biden administration has balked at sending long-range munitions, despite Kyiv’s pleas, for fear of provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin. The administration believes Ukraine can “change the dynamic on the battlefield” and repel Russian invaders without those missiles, an offensive weapon that can fly up to 190 miles, said Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s top policy official. “Our judgment to date has been that the juice isn’t really working the squeeze on the ATACMs. You never know, that judgment at some point could change, but we’re not there yet on the ATACMs,” Kahl told reporters after a trip to Kyiv this weekend.
US, Ukraine military chiefs meet for first time near Polish border - Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley for the first time met with his Ukrainian counterpart in person on Tuesday, traveling to an undisclosed site in Poland near the Ukrainian border, the Pentagon confirmed. Milley, a general in the U.S. Army, met for a few hours with Ukraine’s chief military officer, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, after taking a car from a Polish base to the unnamed location, journalists traveling with the top military official first reported. The two “discussed the unprovoked and ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and exchanged perspectives and assessments,” Army Col. Dave Butler, a spokesman for Milley, said in a statement. “The Chairman reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Zaluzhnyi also announced the meeting on Twitter, writing that he extended his “gratitude for the unwavering support & assistance provided by [the United States] & allies to [Ukraine]” and “outlined the urgent needs of the [Armed Forces of Ukraine] which will accelerate our Victory.” The two generals’ get-together marks a symbolic show of support as Washington and the international community ramp up the delivery of lethal aid to Kyiv. The West as of late has pledged Patriot missile defense systems, tanks and other new weapons to the embattled country as it struggles to regain control of territory taken by Russian forces in the east and deal with a near-constant barrage of Kremlin drone and missile strikes. The meeting also comes as the war nears the end of its first year, with Russian forces, along with thousands of private Wagner Group contractors, appearing to dig in for the long haul. Moscow on Tuesday also announced an effort to grow its military to 1.5 million troops over the next several years. Milley and Zaluzhnyi, who in the past year have often spoken about the wider war and the needs of Ukraine’s military, had never met in person until now. Butler told reporters traveling with Milley that the two generals thought it was important to meet face-to-face, according to The Associated Press.
Zelensky secretly met with CIA Director Burns in Kyiv - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky secretly met with CIA Director William Burns in Kyiv last week, several outlets reported on Thursday. The two reportedly discussed the level of support that Ukraine can continue to expect from the U.S. with Republicans now in control of the House, according to The Washington Post, who first reported on the meeting. House Republicans have suggested that they intend to rein in aid to Ukraine, but Burns assured Zelensky and his aides that President Biden remains steadfast in his support of the country. The omnibus spending package that Congress passed in December also included about $45 billion in emergency funds for Ukraine, which they reportedly expect will last at least through July or August, the Post reported. Burns has repeatedly briefed Zelensky throughout Ukraine’s nearly 11-month long war against Russia, according to The Associated Press. Russia is largely expected to launch another major offensive in Ukraine this winter or early spring, following a series of losses on the battlefield last year.
Ukrainian troops begin Patriot missile training at Oklahoma Army base - Ukrainian troops have arrived at Fort Sill, Okla., and started training on the Patriot missile system, the Pentagon’s top spokesperson confirmed Tuesday. “Training has begun … that training will last for several months and train upwards of 90 to 100 Ukrainians on use of the Patriot missile system,” press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. Fort Sill — home to the Fires Center of Excellence and Patriot training for U.S. troops and forces from other countries — a day earlier announced that the Ukrainian troops had arrived at the Army base. “The same instructors who teach U.S., allied and partner nations will conduct the Ukrainian training, and these classes will not detract from the ongoing training missions at Fort Sill,” according to a statement from the base. Ryder last week said that training on the advanced long-range air defense system is expected to take “several months.” Patriot instruction typically takes up to a year, but defense officials are aiming to speed up the timeline for the Ukrainians. “We recognize … that the longer those troops are off the line, they’re not actually engaged in combat, and so [we’re] trying to work with the Ukrainians to see what we can do to accelerate the training timeline,” he said at the time.
US requests forces in South Korea provide equipment to Ukraine -The Pentagon has requested that U.S. troops stationed in South Korea send equipment and supplies to Ukraine to support Kyiv in its war against Russia.U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), which has about 28,000 troops in South Korea, confirmed it would provide some equipment in a statement to The Hill on Thursday.Col. Isaac Taylor, a USFK spokesperson, said the equipment transfer would not impact its operations in South Korea.“This has zero impact on our operations and our ability to execute on our ironclad commitment to the defense of our ally,” Taylor said. The Pentagon’s request was first reported by Reuters. The U.S. has provided billions of dollars in assistance to Ukraine since the war began last February. The Pentagon announced another $2.5 billion military aid package on Thursday that includes 90 Strykers, or armored combat vehicles.
Russia's Wagner chief writes to White House over new U.S. sanctions (Reuters) - The head of the Russian private military contractor Wagner published on Saturday a short letter to the White House asking what crime his company was accused of, after Washington announced new sanctions on the group. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Friday that Wagner, which has been supporting Russian forces in their invasion of Ukraine and claiming credit for battlefield advances, would be designated a significant Transnational Criminal Organization. A letter in English addressed to Kirby and posted on the Telegram channel of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin's press service read: "Dear Mr Kirby, Could you please clarify what crime was committed by PMC Wagner?" Kirby called Wagner "a criminal organization that is committing widespread atrocities and human rights abuses". Last month, the White House said Wagner had taken delivery of an arms shipment from North Korea to help bolster Russian forces in Ukraine. North Korea's Foreign Ministry called the report groundless and Prigozhin at the time denied taking such a delivery, calling the report "gossip and speculation".
A Prison Where The Prisoners Don’t Know They’re In Prison: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone -- Talking about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine without also talking about the ways the US empire provoked and benefits from this war is the same as lying. One of the main differences between myself and other commentators who talk about an elite conspiracy to implement a totalitarian dystopia is that the others warn that we are being pushed toward this dystopia, while I insist that we’re already there and have been for generations.When I say we’re in a totalitarian dystopia a lot of people assume I mean things like vaccine mandates or gun laws or paying taxes, but I actually mean something far, far bigger than that. I mean we’re all in a psychological prison built by the powerful to control how we are.The Orwellian dystopia isn’t some danger that exists in the future; it’s here presently. It just doesn’t look like what Orwell imagined. Our rulers are getting everything they want out of the current dystopia, just as much as they would in societies envisioned by dystopian novelists.It is true that we are seeing more and more overtly tyrannical measures rolled out in areas like surveillance and suppression of speech, but those are not means of getting us into the dystopian prison, they are means of keeping us there. They’re just tightening the bolts on our cage.You can tell we’re in a psychological prison because everyone’s getting crazier and crazier. Mental illness and addiction are soaring, there’s a mass shooting epidemic in the United States, and everyone’s feeling increasingly miserable and alienated. This is because we’re all propagandized to the gills. We’re acting like victims of psychological abuse because that’s what we are. We’ve spent our whole lives having our minds systematically pounded into a shape that makes us think, speak, act and vote in a way that benefits our rulers.Because they control the way we think with mass scale psychological manipulation, their control is total. It’s as total as it would be in the civilization laid out in Orwell’s 1984. We won’t be doing anything they don’t want us doing while our minds are locked down like this. What we have is actually far more effective than an overly tyrannical dystopia, because it looks like freedom. They let you do more or less what you want, while using mass-scale psychological manipulation to control what it is that you will want to do.What’s harder to escape than a maximum security prison? A prison where the prisoners don’t even know they’re in prison.
Biden Admin Preparing $20 Billion F-16 Deal With Turkey - The Biden administration has told Congress that it is preparing the $20 billion F-16 fighter jet deal with Turkey, despite objections by US lawmakers in the past, Reuters reported.According to three unnamed sources who spoke with the news agency, the State Department sent an informal notice to Congress on Thursday to inform the committees overseeing arms sales in the Senate and House of Representatives. The potential deal received a lot of criticism in the past, with experts arguing that the sale would "embrace authoritarianism" and aid Ankara’s violation of its neighbors’ sovereignty."How do you reward a nation that does all of those things?" Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Bob Menendez remarked during an interview, adding, "I don’t see it. Now, if they want to start changing their ways, that’s a different story." Menendez is one of the four lawmakers whose approval is required for foreign military sales.However, the deal is unlikely to receive approval by Congress as long as Turkey continues to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO.The announcement came to light a week ahead of Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s planned visit to Washington on Wednesday. Turkey and the US are expected to discuss several issues regarding their differences in Syria and arms sales.Earlier in December, US Congress lifted restrictions that prevented the sale of F-16 jets to Turkey, according to documents obtained by the state-run Anadolu Agency.Citing a finalized draft of the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) bill, the Turkish news agency claims amendments submitted by congress members to block the sale were dropped from the bill.Tensions between the two states were flared by Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S-400 defense missile system, triggering US sanctions and sidelining Ankara from the 5th generation F-35 advanced fighter jets. As a result of the US ban on sales, the Turkish military industry launched the ÖZGÜR project to modernize its F-16 Block 30 fleet and circumvent the undeclared sanctions on maintenance and upgrades.
Ukraine war: German tanks for Ukraine depend on US approval - Germany will only send battle tanks to Ukraine if the US does the same, multiple reports suggest. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under increasing international and domestic pressure to supply German-built Leopard 2 tanks or at least approve their delivery by third countries. Poland and Finland have both promised to send their Leopards - but need Germany's permission to do so. But Berlin is still in talks with the US about its official position. Many expect an announcement to follow a meeting of Ukraine's Western allies at the American military base of Ramstein in southwestern Germany tomorrow. Reports suggest that Mr Scholz will only give the green light to the Leopards if the US President Joe Biden agrees to supply American Abrams tanks. However, the Pentagon's top security adviser, Colin Kahl, said late on Thursday that the US wasn't prepared to meet Kyiv's demands for the tanks. "The Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment. It's expensive. It's hard to train on. It has a jet engine," Mr Kahl said. A senior German government source told the BBC that reports of a deadlock between Berlin and Washington over tanks were overstated, but they're causing concern amongst Ukraine's Western allies. The provision of Western battle tanks - in sufficient numbers - is widely seen as crucial if Ukraine is to defeat Russia or, at the very least, defend itself against Russian President Vladimir Putin's anticipated spring offensive. Yet, to date, only Britain has promised to supply them. Other countries, including Germany, France and the US, have sent or pledged to send armoured vehicles as well as air defence systems and other heavy equipment. Meanwhile, Kyiv's demands for tanks are growing increasingly urgent.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Germany amid delays on tanks for Ukraine - — Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met his newly appointed German counterpart on Thursday for talks that took on greater urgency after Berlin put conditions on tank deliveries to Ukraine. In a call this week with President Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that in order for Germany to unlock a package of Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine, Washington should send tanks, too, according to a German and a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private conversation. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine. It’s a move Washington doesn’t want to make, citing the high fuel consumption and maintenance burden of the U.S. military’s M1 Abrams battle tanks. Austin was hoping to break the deadlock in Berlin and persuade Germany to send tanks, according to a senior U.S. defense official. U.S. readies another massive military package for Ukraine As the manufacturer of the Leopard 2, Germany’s approval is technically required for any country in Europe to send those tanks on to Kyiv. But as frustrations mounted, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki threatened Wednesday night to send the 14 tanks Poland has promised — regardless of whether Germany approves. The controversy marks a baptism of fire for Germany’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, who met with Austin just an hour after being sworn into office on Thursday morning, amid a new wave of criticism that Germany is a weak link in NATO support for Ukraine. His predecessor resigned Monday after a string of blunders that raised questions about her ability to steer the ministry at a critical time. Berlin has long signaled that it did not want to go it “alone” in sending tanks — and be seen as escalating the war by sending offensive weaponry, inviting retaliation from Russia. Allies had hoped that a British government pledge to supply Challenger 2 tanks, alongside pledges from other European countries, would encourage the German government to greenlight the Leopard 2 battle tanks Ukraine says it desperately needs. But in recent days, Scholz has signaled that Germany is looking for the United States to act in lockstep when it comes to tank deliveries. Advertisement “We are never doing something just by ourselves, but together with others, especially the United States,” Scholz said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday. When asked about tanks, he said that Germany is among “the ones that are doing the most” in military aid, listing its deliveries.
U.S., allies ramp up pressure on Germany to send tanks to Ukraine - — A group of European nations is working to form a coalition to pressure Berlin to allow them to send their German-made tanks to Ukraine, as frustration mounts over Berlin’s insistence that the U.S. donate their tanks first. The group, which will likely be led by Poland, could take its first steps at a Friday meeting of 50 nations committed to helping Ukraine in Ramstein, Germany, during a regular gathering of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The move is part of a new multi-front campaign by U.S. and Western allies to persuade German leaders to change their minds on the tank issue. Twelve countries operate Leopard tanks, and many have said they want to donate them to Ukraine ahead of an expected spring offensive. But due to expert rules, they need Germany’s permission before they can transfer the vehicles. A statement signed by nine NATO allies and released on Thursday said “Poland is ready to donate a company of Leopard 2 tanks with 1000 pieces of ammunition. Pending this, a wider coalition of Leopard 2 tanks donors will be established.” The group is expected to have wide support, and defense officials from two of the 12 European countries that operate the tank told POLITICO that their governments are open to joining the effort. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, meanwhile, is working to meet with as many of those nations as possible at Ramstein on Friday, one person with knowledge of the plan said. This person, like others who were interviewed for this story, asked not to be named in order to speak candidly about internal deliberations. On Thursday, Reznikov tweeted a plea to those countries to join an international “tank coalition in support of” Ukraine. At the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told U.S. lawmakers that Germany won’t send or authorize the transfer of tanks to Ukraine until the U.S. agrees to give its own. The exchange in Davos, described by four people with knowledge of what was said, including Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), was respectful in tone but showed just how far apart Washington and Berlin are on a tank deal. Moulton said Scholz made a “fairly reasonable” request because Germany relies on the U.S. for a nuclear deterrent and “are much closer to this fight than we are.” Scholz was “pretty direct,” said one of the people. The 12 lawmakers in the room — which featured Moulton and Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) — were surprised to hear the remark as they felt more progress has been made on the issue, two people said. If any legislator disagreed with Scholz’s pronouncement, Moulton said, “they didn’t say it.” Asked on the sidelines of the glitzy gathering, Coons, the congressional delegation’s leader, declined to confirm the exchange. But, he made sure to say, “we need to find a way to move forward together.”
‘They have us over a barrel’: Inside the US and German standoff over sending tanks to Ukraine — The Biden administration is stuck in a standoff with Germany over whether to send tanks to Ukraine ahead of a key meeting of Western defense leaders in Germany on Friday. In recent days, German officials have indicated they won’t send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, or allow any other country with the German-made tanks in their inventory to do so, unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv – something the Pentagon has said for months it has no intention of doing given the logistical costs of maintaining them. “They have us over a barrel,” a senior Biden administration official told CNN Thursday, adding that the Germans are demanding tanks for tanks, and not budging on considering any other offers the US has made to spur Berlin to send the Leopards. The tank standoff comes amid a much larger debate between the US and its European allies over whether to send increasingly sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, including longer-range missiles that would allow Ukraine to hit targets as far as 200 miles away. The UK, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states have all been pushing for NATO members to provide heavier equipment to Kyiv amid what they believe is a key inflection point in the war. Both Ukraine and Russia appear to be gearing up for new offensives and there are signs that Moscow could be preparing an additional troop mobilization. Last week, the British added pressure to their Western allies when they announced they would send 14 of their Challenger tanks to Ukraine. But Germany and the US were still opposed to the idea of sending their own tanks as of Wednesday. Berlin then dragged the Biden administration deeper into the standoff, suggesting their delivery of tanks was contingent on the US doing the same. “If America will decide that they will bring battle tanks to Ukraine, that will make it easier for Germany,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told Bloomberg from Davos on Tuesday. Asked on Wednesday at Davos about supplying tanks to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a similar point, saying Germany was “Strategically interlocked together with our friends and partners” and that, “we are never doing something just by ourselves but together with others, especially the United States.
US decides against sending tanks to Ukraine in aid package - The Biden administration has decided against sending tanks to Ukraine for now, which comes after weeks of buzz around the topic.Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon press secretary, told reporters Thursday it “doesn’t make sense” to give Ukraine the tanks at this stage.“The maintenance and the high cost that it would take to maintain an Abrams, it just doesn’t make sense to provide that to the Ukrainians at this moment,” Singh said. Ukraine has been asking for the M1 Abrams main battle tank and other, modern tanks for months amid its war with Russia. Ukraine is expecting a big offensive from Russia in the spring and will also need to conduct another major counteroffensive of its own to keep the upper hand in the war. Kyiv has had its hands on Soviet-era tanks upgraded for use but would like the firepower offered from modern, western-designed tanks.“There is no rational reason why Ukraine has not yet been supplied with Western tanks,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted earlier this month.Germany is also refusing to provide its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine unless the U.S. goes first with its M1 Abrams.A group of European nations is forming to put more pressure on Berlin to allow them to transfer Leopard tanks in their country’s stocks to Ukraine, Politico reported.While 12 European nations operate the tanks, Germany would need to give the final OK to ship them over to Kyiv because of certain rules. Instead of the prized M1 Abrams, the U.S. is expected to announce for Ukraine another shipment of Bradleys and, for the first time, Strykers.The Strykers are eight-wheeled armored transports with attached machine guns and grenade launchers.Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is meeting with about 50 defense ministers on Friday in Ramstein, Germany, where he will deliver remarks and hold a press conference.
Pentagon Exploring Back-Pay For Troops Kicked Out Over COVID Vaccine Mandate - The U.S. Department of Defense may provide back pay to former service members who were removed for not receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, coming after the Pentagon repealed the mandate, a spokesperson confirmed Friday. A Pentagon spokesperson told The Epoch Times, in response to reports from Politico and others, that regarding back pay, the “Department is still exploring this and will provide its views on legislation of this nature at the appropriate time and through the appropriate process.” Dietz did not provide a timetable for when back pay might be considered. On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a memo (pdf) formally rescinding the vaccine mandate after lawmakers passed a defense spending bill into law in December that required the change. The Pentagon had already stopped discharging service members who didn’t get the vaccine. “The Department will continue to promote and encourage COVID-19 vaccination for all service members,” Austin wrote, coming about a year and a half after it was implemented. “Vaccination enhances operational readiness and protects the force.” Commanders can decide on whether to deploy troops who are not vaccinated, the memo said. That includes when COVID-19 vaccination is mandated “for travel to, or entry into, a foreign nation,” it added. “Certainly commanders do have a responsibility to ensure that if they’re sending forces to a place that requires a vaccine that that’s a situation that will be addressed, you know, on a case-by-case basis,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters on Thursday. “But you know, we have a responsibility for the health and welfare of our forces. And so, you know, again, depending on the situation and the circumstances, it is incumbent on commanders to ensure that they’re doing what they need to do to make sure those forces are ready.” The contentious mandate forced more than 8,400 troops out of the military as top officials said they were refusing to obey an order for declining to take the vaccine. Thousands of people sought medical and religious exemptions, although a federal judge last month wrote (pdf) that the number of service members who successfully obtained religious exemption is far smaller than those who got medical exemptions.
U.S. asks court to reverse order banning airplane mask mandate to combat COVID (Reuters) - The Justice Department on Tuesday asked an appeals court panel to reverse an April 2021 ruling that declared unlawful a government order requiring masks on airplanes, buses, trains, ridesharing services and at airports and other transportation hubs. A three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments on the government's appeal of a ruling by a U.S. district court judge in Florida that found the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lacked legal authority to issue a nationwide travel mask mandate to combat COVID-19. The CDC issued the sweeping mask mandate in January 2021, days after Joe Biden became president. A report from U.S. lawmakers in October said the Trump administration in 2020 blocked the CDC from adopting a federal transportation mask mandate. Much of the arguments in the appeal focus on the CDC's decision to put in place the requirements immediately rather than give the public a chance to comment on the mandate.Justice Department lawyer Brian Springer said the CDC could impose mask requirements without giving the public time to comment given the pandemic emergency, arguing it was necessary "to prevent the possible infections and deaths that could result if people didn't do the simple thing of just putting on a mask while they were traveling."
Reversing abortion drug's approval would harm public interest, U.S. FDA says -(Reuters) - President Joe Biden's administration is urging a judge to reject a request by abortion opponents for a court order withdrawing federal approval for the drug used in medication abortions - which account for more than half of U.S. abortions - citing potential dangers to women seeking to end their pregnancies. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's filing to U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, made available online on Tuesday, came in a lawsuit in Texas by anti-abortion groups challenging the agency's approval of the drug mifepristone in 2000 for medication abortion. "The public interest would be dramatically harmed by effectively withdrawing from the marketplace a safe and effective drug that has lawfully been on the market for twenty-two years," lawyers for the FDA said in the filing to Kacsmaryk, who is based in Amarillo. Mifepristone is available under the brand name Mifeprex and as a generic. Used in conjunction with another drug, it is approved to terminate a pregnancy within the first 10 weeks of a pregnancy. The FDA on Jan. 3 said the government for the first time will allow mifepristone to be dispensed at retail pharmacies. Medication abortion has drawn increasing attention since the U.S. Supreme Court last June overturned its landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that had legalized abortion nationwide. Nearly all abortions, including medication abortions, are now banned in 12 states, and 16 states that permit some abortions also had laws restricting medication abortion as of November, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a research group that supports abortion rights.
Supreme Court could not identify who shared draft abortion opinion - An investigation by the Supreme Court has been unable to determine who disclosed to POLITICO last year a draft opinion overturning the federal constitutional right to abortion, the court said in a statement Thursday. The internal probe zeroed in on 82 employees who had access to electronic or hard copies of the draft majority opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, but “was unable to identify a person responsible by a preponderance of the evidence,” the high court said. “The leak was no mere misguided attempt at protest. It was a grave assault on the judicial process,” the court said in a joint statement that blasted the disclosure as an “extraordinary betrayal of trust.” The high court also released a 20-page report of the investigation, announced by Chief Justice John Roberts last May immediately after POLITICO’s publication of the draft opinion and conducted by Supreme Court Marshal Gail Curley. “No one confessed to publicly disclosing the document and none of the available forensic and other evidence provided a basis for identifying any individual as the source of the document,” Curley’s report said. “All personnel who had access to the draft opinion signed sworn affidavits affirming they did not disclose the draft opinion nor know anything about who did.” While not pinning blame for the leak on any individual, the review found that several court staffers had been cavalier in their handling of sensitive information, including about the abortion case in question, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
Trump calls for jailing journalists who broke Supreme Court’s draft abortion decision - Former President Trump is calling for the jailing of the journalists who published a leaked draft opinion showing the Supreme Court was poised to overturn Roe v. Wade. Last spring, Politico reporters Josh Gerstein and Alexander Ward published a blockbuster report on a draft opinion penned by Justice Samuel Alito that would overturn the landmark abortion ruling.The court on Thursday made public a report detailing an investigation into the leak of the opinion, indicating it was unable to identify the source of the leak to Politico.“They’ll never find out, & it’s important that they do,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social website. “So, go to the reporter & ask him/her who it was. If not given the answer, put whoever in jail until the answer is given. You might add the editor and publisher to the list.” In the days that followed Politico’s report, congressional Republicans and conservative media figures expressed outrage that the opinion had been leaked before the court handed down its official decision on the matter and demanded the person responsible for the leak be found and punished. Trump previously suggested the Supreme Court “go to the reporter” who published the draft memo to try to find the source of the leak. The high court voted to overturn Roe last June with its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
Here is the Truth: Medicare Advantage Is Neither Medicare Nor an Advantage - Wendell Potter --Right now, well-funded lobbyists from big health insurance companies are leading a campaign on Capitol Hill to get Members of Congress and Senators of both parties to sign on to a letter designed to put them on the record “expressing strong support” for the scam that is Medicare Advantage.But here is the truth: Medicare Advantage is neither Medicare nor an advantage. And I should know. I am a former health-care executive who helped develop PR and marketing schemes to sell these private insurance plans.During my two decades in the industry, I was part of an annual collaborative effort to persuade lawmakers that Medicare Advantage was far superior to traditional Medicare—real Medicare. We knew that having Congressional support for Medicare Advantage was essential to ensuring ever-growing profits—at the expense of seniors and taxpayers. We even organized what we insiders derisively called “granny fly-ins.” We brought seniors enrolled in our Medicare replacement plans to Washington, equipped them with talking points, and had them fan out across Capitol Hill. Instead of joining with the corporate lobbyists in extolling the benefits of Medicare Advantage while obscuring the program’s numerous problems… I regret my participation in those efforts. Over the 20 years since Congress passed the Medicare Modernization Act, the Medicare Advantage program has become an enormous cash cow for insurers, in large part because of the way they have rigged the risk-scoring system to maximize profits. As Kaiser Health News reported last month, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimated “net overpayments to Medicare Advantage plans by unconfirmed medical diagnoses at $11.4 billion for 2022.” That was for just one year. Imagine what the cumulative historical total would be.The Medicare and Medicaid programs have become so lucrative and profitable for insurers that UnitedHealth Group, the nation’s largest health insurer and the biggest in terms of Medicare Advantage enrollment, got 72% of its health plan revenues in 2021 from taxpayers and seniors. In fact, all of UnitedHealth’s enrollment growth since 2012 has been in government programs. Enrollment in the company’s employer and individual health plans shrank by 370,000 between September 30, 2012, and September 30, 2022. Much of the $81 billion UnitedHealth collected in revenues in the third quarter of last year was subsidized by American tax dollars.Members of Congress on both sides of the political aisle–and both sides of the Capitol–are at long last calling for more scrutiny of the Medicare Advantage program. Sen. Chuck Grassley has called for aggressive oversight of Medicare Advantage plans to recoup overcharges and was quoted in the Kaiser Health News story. As was Sen. Sherrod Brown, who said that fixing Medicare Advantage is not a partisan issue. And as Rep. Katie Porter commented, “When big insurance bills taxpayers for care it never intends to deliver, it is stealing our tax dollars.”I know that Democrats and Republicans alike care about the financial stability of the Medicare program. Instead of joining with the corporate lobbyists in extolling the benefits of Medicare Advantage while obscuring the program’s numerous problems, and in the process helping Big Insurance make massive profits, Congress should work to lower the cost of health care.Medicare Advantage is a money-making scam. I should know. I helped to sell it.
A record share of earnings was not subject to Social Security taxes in 2021: Inequality’s undermining of Social Security has accelerated – EPI - Social Security payroll taxes are not collected on earnings over a set cap. In 2021, this cap was $142,800, so workers making more than this enjoyed the benefit of zero Social Security taxes on all earnings in excess of this cap. However, rising income inequality is skewing this tax structure even further to the benefit of top earners and diminishing funding for the crucial retirement program so many Americans rely on.Social Security’s payroll tax—of which employees pay 6.2% and employers 6.2% each—has a cap that rises with growth in the national average wage index compiled by the Social Security Administration (SSA). In 2023, for example, the cap is set at $160,200. But since wage growth for top earners continues to outpace average wage growth, a growing share of total earnings is spilling over the cap and escaping taxation, eroding Social Security revenues.Significant reforms to Social Security made in 1983 set the cap at a level so that 90% of all earnings would be subject to taxes. Over time, rising inequality meant that this share shrank as more earnings for higher-wage workers spilled over the cap. In 2020 and 2021, the share of earnings subject to Social Security taxes hit the lowest levels since before the 1983 reform. In fact, by 2021, the share of earnings subject to Social Security taxes was at the lowest level in nearly 50 years (since 1972).This fact is important for at least two reasons:
- First, Social Security is likely to be under threat in coming years as part of a general return to debates over long-run fiscal sustainability in the United States.
- Second, a recent debate on earnings inequality trends has rightly highlighted a pronounced compression of wages among the bottom 90% of workers. But the Social Security data we highlight in this brief show that growth at the very top of the earnings distribution—the top 1% and above—continues to exceed growth of the bottom 99% of the workforce. This means there has been very little (or no) compression between earnings for the bottom 90% and those at the very top of the earnings distribution.
New program will allow private citizens to sponsor refugees in the U.S. -Ordinary Americans will soon be able to directly sponsor refugees entering the U.S. through a new policy, the State Department announced Thursday. The State Department has historically relied on nonprofit organizations to help refugees find their footing when they first arrive in the U.S. But under the new program, called the “Welcome Corps,” groups of five or more Americans can volunteer to assist refugees with everything from finances to finding a place to live. “The Welcome Corps will build on Americans’ generosity of spirit by creating a durable program for Americans in communities across the country to privately sponsor refugees from around the world,” the State Department said in a statement, calling the program “the boldest innovation in refugee resettlement in four decades.” Sponsors will be required to raise an initial $2,275 per refugee to help support them during their first three months in the country — money that will go toward things like a security deposit on an apartment or new winter clothes, a senior State Department official said during a call with members of the press. After the first three months, the refugees will become eligible for other federal programs. “The goal is for the refugees to become self-reliant as quickly as possible,” the official said. T
Sinema and Manchin high-five at Davos over blocking filibuster reform - Sens. Kirsten Sinema (I-Az.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) high-fived over their efforts to block Senate filibuster reform on stage at a panel with other U.S. lawmakers and governors in Davos, Switzerland. Sinema was touting the duo’s accomplishments as a moderating force in the Senate — which included blocking changes to the filibuster — when Manchin chimed in. “We still don’t agree on getting rid of the filibuster,” Manchin said before they turned to each other and high-fived. The lawmakers’ intransigence on the filibuster effectively blocked key Democratic legislative priorities, such as voting rights reforms and codifying abortion rights, over the past two years. Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an independent last month, used the outing at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting to take a victory lap. “While some would say that there were reluctant folks working in Congress in the last two years,” she said, gesturing at herself and Manchin, “I would actually say that was the basis for the productivity for some incredible achievements that made a difference for the American people in the last two years.” Sinema was apparently jabbing back at fellow panelist Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker (D), who had knocked the senators for their pushback to some of President Biden’s agenda. “[Biden] has worked with some reluctant members of his own party,” Pritzker said, motioning toward the side of the stage with Manchin and Sinema. “But we have gotten things done for the United States at the federal level under this president.” Sinema called the filibuster an “important guardrail for the institution” and dinged Democrats who argued the U.S. would “not have any more” free elections without the voting rights package, saying the country had free elections in 2022 without the legislation passing.
‘You’re hurting my country’: Manchin faces Europe’s wrath - When French President Emmanuel Macron visited Washington late last year, he hunted down Joe Manchin,the key architect of the new American trade and energy policies he loathed. “You’re hurting my country,” Macron told Manchin, the senator recounted in an interview with POLITICO. It was a charge that captured the wounded feelings and political frustrations of America’s allies in Europe after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, H.R. 5376 (117), which included a mammoth program of clean-energy subsidies and made-in-America manufacturing rules that has thrown the transatlantic economic relationship into turmoil. Manchin, as the crucial fiftieth vote for the legislation and whose office wrote the controversial provisions, did more to shape the final version of the law than any legislator. Now, Manchin has marched into the den of the European elite, mingling at the World Economic Forum in Davos with an audience of continental technocrats, true-believing free traders and oligarchs more at ease in Monte Carlo than Morgantown, West Virginia, where Manchin played college football. The gulf in political and cultural sensibilities could scarcely have been starker. In the Swiss Alps, Manchin was determined to change the minds of men and women who see him as the face of a new American rival, the cause of a great rupture in transatlantic economic relations. Now, having made the trip across the Atlantic, he’s trying to put the pieces back together. He has been in one mode and one mode only here: sell, baby, sell. Manchin is unabashedly proud of his role in shaping the IRA, handing out one-pagers and telling stories about the people — some of them at Davos — who are already benefiting from it. But American allies like France and Germany see the $369 billion investment in energy security, including subsidies for climate and tech companies and incentives for consumers, as a frontal assault on European industry, a blunt-force instrument aimed at coercing companies to shift investments out of Europe and perhaps enter into energy and manufacturing deals in North America that they would not otherwise pursue. A new man about town In Washington, Manchin is among the most famous members of Congress. But now, the once-unknown, gum-chewing, no-nonsense West Virginian is infamous in Europe. European leaders, typically used to dealing with fellow heads of state, are now seeking facetime with the newfound Davos Man himself. They are getting plenty of it.He said he explained that the IRA is good for the U.S. and for the European allies.Did he convince anyone? Not really, he said, but he made his case.
U.S. strikes at China with EV battery deal - The U.S. moved this week to counter China’s control over production of electric vehicle batteries at a time of widespread concerns over global shortages of key minerals and labor abuses in African mines. In a memorandum of understanding Wednesday, the State Department pledged to help build an EV battery supply chain in Congo and Zambia. The department and other U.S. agencies will offer technical assistance to the two countries, cooperate on feasibility studies and explore opportunities in the sector for U.S. companies, according to the MOU. The goal is to shift Congo and Zambia from being only sites of extraction for minerals to processing, manufacturing and assembling batteries, according to the text (Energywire, Nov. 4, 2022). “This is the future, and it is happening in [Congo] and in Zambia,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the MOU’s signing on Dec. 13. The full text was not made public by the State Department until Wednesday. The deal takes place in a region where the mining sector is of unrivaled importance for electric vehicles. Congo and Zambia are major global sources of cobalt and copper, key ingredients in lithium-ion batteries. Once extracted, those minerals are often exported to China, where they are subsequently processed and incorporated into batteries. China made about 75 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries in 2021, compared with 7 percent for the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency. That has gained the attention of Congress, considering the Biden administration’s aim of ramping up electric car sales. By 2030, the administration wants as much as half of new car sales in the U.S. to be electric. Republicans have criticized that goal in part on the grounds that it would play into the hands of China and other geopolitical foes. While the MOU did not mention China, helping Congo and Zambia scale up their own battery industries would create a new source of competition for the Asian country. Kwasi Ampofo, head of metals and mining at BloombergNEF, noted that China controls about 80 percent of the battery “midstream,” referring to the conversion of minerals into usable battery parts. “This MOU if implemented successfully will help move the needle for the U.S.,” he wrote in an email. Elsewhere, the Biden administration has sought to improve U.S. access to non-Chinese sources of minerals used in EV batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. Under a flagship initiative announced last year, known as the Mineral Security Partnership, the administration has sought to fund overseas mining projects (Greenwire, Sept. 23, 2022). The moves come as analysts predict a looming supply shortage of minerals that could slow the U.S. transition to electric cars and other low-carbon technologies. Last year, for instance, Wood Mackenzie released a report citing likely copper shortages for electric carmakers.
House Republicans seek to roll back Biden’s solar policy - House Republicans are aiming to reverse a controversial Biden administration move to waive solar tariffs that seek to block heavily subsidized Chinese products from flooding the U.S. by way of Southeast Asia. Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), a high-ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, plans to bring administration officials before the panel to grill them on the decision, which was initially made in June and finalized by the Commerce Department in September. Latta also is signaling that Republicans are interested in deploying a rarely used legislative tool — the Congressional Review Act (CRA) — to formally revoke the Biden administration’s decision. “I’m amenable to a CRA,” Latta told E&E News in an interview Wednesday. “What we got to do is get it done, because this is hurting Americans and helping the Communist Chinese.” Last year, Biden waived tariffs on solar products from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam amid an investigation into whether companies were transporting subsidized Chinese products through those countries, effectively circumventing existing tariffs on Chinese subsidized solar products. In December, the Commerce Department said that solar companies were, in fact, circumventing the Chinese tariffs in all four countries but won’t be subject to tariffs until mid-2024. “This provides U.S. solar importers with sufficient time to adjust supply chains and ensure that sourcing isn’t occurring from companies found to be violating U.S. law,” the department said at the time. The Congressional Review Act, enacted in 1996 as part of then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” legislation, allows lawmakers to annul regulations that were finalized as far back as 60 days into the last legislative session. It requires a simple majority in both chambers and a presidential signature. The latter requirement poses a major challenge with President Joe Biden still in the White House. “Going forward with the CRA issue, you’ll see a fair amount of action coming out of the House,” said Dan Bosch, director of regulatory policy at the conservative American Action Forum. “This is a good opportunity for a lot of Republicans in the House to contrast their policies with the Biden administration. But of course, that’s going to run into a roadblock in the Senate and, of course, it’s not going to get past Biden’s desk.” Lawmakers are statutorily allowed to introduce CRAs 15 days into a legislative session. Meanwhile, Congress can override a CRA veto with supermajority votes in each chamber. Congressional leadership very rarely amasses enough support to override vetoes. A successful CRA means that any administration would no longer be able to promulgate a regulation that is “substantially the same form,” language that essentially bars a similar regulation in the future. Republicans used the CRA prolifically in early 2017 to reverse Obama administration regulations when then-President Donald Trump was in the White House. The push to nix the Biden solar rule is one plank in the Republican campaign to confront China. In the first two weeks of the 118th Congress, House Republicans have already set up a select committee on U.S. competition with China and overwhelmingly passed a bill to prevent Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales to the world’s most populous nation.
A risk to Biden's climate law: Depleted agencies - - President Joe Biden’s climate agenda is at risk of getting squeezed between a chronic shortage of federal workers and threats by House Republicans to slash spending.House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), as part of a deal to win his gavel, has signed onto a plan by GOP hardliners to try and roll back discretionary spending to fiscal 2022 levels. That equates to a cut of about $130 billion from current spending levels and is line with new GOP calls to balance the federal budget.Democrats are positioned to kill those proposals in the Senate. But conservatives still hope to use looming deadlines for government funding and the debt ceiling as leverage to extract whatever concessions they can.Such brinkmanship threatens to disrupt federal agencies as they race to do two things at once. The first is to implement Biden’s new climate laws and their rapidly approaching deadlines. The second is to use money from those same laws to rebuild a federal workforce that was shorthanded even before the Trump administration drove out top career employees. EPA, for example, has about 18 percent fewer employees than its peak in fiscal 1999, according to agency data and a spokesperson.Understaffing remains a “horrible problem,” said Jacqueline Simon, policy director for the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest union of federal workers.If Republicans do enforce 2022 spending levels, then “obviously the [climate] law will not be able to be carried out,” she added. “It’s just dollars and cents.” It would be difficult for Republicans to claw back money passed under the Inflation Reduction Act. The money is already out the door, from Congress’ perspective, so it’s not subject to annual appropriations.But Republicans already have signaled they’re willing to try. The first bill brought to the House floor this year sought to unwind the Inflation Reduction Act’s roughly $80 billion boost to the IRS for tax enforcement.“Our very first bill, we repealed 87,000 IRS agents,” McCarthy said last week on Fox News’ “Hannity.” That claim is misleading; the IRS plans to use only a fraction of that money for agents.That bill was dead on arrival in the Senate. But it demonstrates the tactics Republicans intend to deploy against the Inflation Reduction Act, said Rachel Cleetus, policy director with the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.Rather than vote directly on the law’s popular provisions, she said, Republicans are taking the more subtle approach of undermining federal workers.“It is a very pernicious way to go after the implementation of something that’s already been passed,”
U.S. FAA says 'unintentionally deleted files' prompted computer outage (Reuters) - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said on Thursday a preliminary review found that contract personnel "unintentionally deleted files" disrupting a key computer system and prompting a nationwide groundstop on Jan. 11 that disrupted more than 11,000 flights. The FAA said the issue occurred while personnel were working "to correct synchronization between the live primary database and a backup database." The FAA said it "has so far found no evidence of a cyber-attack or malicious intent." FAA acting Administrator Billy Nolen plans to hold a virtual briefing Friday for lawmakers and staff, who have sought details of what went wrong with a pilot messaging database that led to the first nationwide grounding of departing flights since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Last week, the agency said the computer outage of the Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) messaging system was caused by a procedural error related to a corrupted data file. The NOTAM system provides pilots, flight crews and other users of U.S. airspace with critical safety notices. The FAA said it has made necessary repairs to the system "and has taken steps to make the pilot message system "more resilient." The system outage occurred on Jan. 10, but the FAA groundstop was not issued until the following morning. Last week, a group of more than 120 U.S. lawmakers told the FAA that the computer outage was "completely unacceptable" and demanded the agency explain how it will avoid future incidents. The system outage occurred on Jan. 10, but the FAA groundstop was not issued until the following morning. Last week, a group of more than 120 U.S. lawmakers told the FAA that the computer outage was "completely unacceptable" and demanded the agency explain how it will avoid future incidents. Senate Commerce Committee staff have also asked the FAA to answer questions on the outage, including, "Why were airlines put in a position where they could have the option of choosing to operate when the NOTAM system was down?"
Mitch McConnell said Kevin McCarthy will be "just fine" as speaker but conceded it "certainly was quite an adventure watching him get there." -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters in Kentucky he has confidence in Kevin McCarthy but acknowledged it was a messy process for the California Republican to ultimately grab the speakership. "I think Speaker McCarthy is gonna do just fine. It certainly was quite an adventure watching him get there, but I think things will settle down in the House and he'll be just fine." — McConnell to reporters at an event at the University of Louisville In addition, the Republican leader predicted action on the debt ceiling in the first half of 2023 with "some kind of negotiation with the administration over what are the circumstances or conditions under which the debt ceiling be raised." Asked if the U.S. should be concerned a financial crisis, McConnell replied: "No, I would not be concerned about a financial crisis." He noted the annual government funding process has gotten more and more difficult. "The very basic business of funding the government has become very controversial in my party," McConnell said, noting he was the lone Republican in his commonwealth to vote for the $1.7 trillion funding package in December."It's certainly not ideal to have all of the appropriation bills balled up into one big bill," McConnell said. "I don't advocate that, but I'm not the majority leader of the Senate anymore."
Schumer, McCarthy working relationship off to rocky start - The Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are set to test each other’s mettle as they battle over the debt limit, government funding and the 2024 election. The two leaders don’t have much of a personal relationship, according to congressional aides and strategists, and their working relationship is off to a rocky start, with Schumer accusing McCarthy and his House GOP colleagues of pushing an “extreme” agenda that would undercut women’s health care and cut Medicare and Social Security benefits. Despite the shots, Schumer is hoping to develop enough rapport with McCarthy to avoid a government shutdown and to pass a debt ceiling hike that would prevent a downgrading of the nation’s credit rating — or worse. Bigger legislative deals are much less likely, as is a warmer working relationship. “There’s been no reason up until now for them to have a relationship,” He noted that it doesn’t help McCarthy with his own GOP conference to be compromising with Schumer. “So openly and publicly having a good relationship with Schumer doesn’t help him,” Mollineau said. McCarthy has developed a back channel relationship of sorts with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), according to GOP aides. McCarthy and McConnell don’t often make public appearances together, but aides say they have a good relationship and meet regularly. A GOP leadership aide told The Hill the two leaders try to meet at least once every congressional work period and rotate meetings between their two offices, using a private hallway between the two chambers. McConnell and McCarthy have repeatedly split in public over high-profile bills, such as the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, legislation to address gun violence after the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, a $280 billion bill to help the domestic semi-conductor industry, and the year-end $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package. McConnell voted for all four major bills while McCarthy voted against all of them. McCarthy’s relationship with Schumer will be far more complicated in the 118th Congress because the new Speaker doesn’t have the same freedom he had in 2021 and 2022 to vote against bipartisan and must-pass bills. If McCarthy refuses to put legislation on the House floor to raise the debt limit or fund the government that can also get 60 votes to pass the Senate, it could lead to a default or shutdown. The problem for McCarthy is that if he brings a compromise bill to the House floor, it could trigger a snap vote on whether he remains as Speaker. McCarthy agreed to a rules package that allows just one conservative to force a vote on a new Speaker.
White House calls on McCarthy to publicize details of deals with conservatives - White House on Tuesday called on Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to make public the details of any agreements he struck with conservative House members in exchange for their votes to win the Speakership. Deputy White House press secretary Andrew Bates warned that the extent of the deals between McCarthy and the roughly 20 Republicans who initially opposed his bid for Speaker are not fully known, but that they could wreak havoc on the economy and key government programs. “An unprecedented tax hike on the middle class and a national abortion ban are just a glimpse of the secret, backroom deals Speaker McCarthy made with extreme MAGA members to end this month’s chaotic elections and claim the gavel,” Bates said in a statement, which was first reported by Politico. “The few agreements we know about would fundamentally reshape our economy in a devastating way for working families and criminalize women for making their own health care decisions. “What other hidden bargains did Speaker McCarthy make behind closed doors with the most extreme, ultra MAGA members of the House Republican conference?” Bates continued. “The American people have a right to know — now — which is why we are calling on him to make every single one of them public immediately.” McCarthy earlier this month offered a series of concessions to hard-line conservatives in a bid to win their votes for Speaker, which he ultimately did after 15 rounds of voting. McCarthy agreed to several procedural changes, including lowering the threshold to bring up a move to force a vote on ousting the House Speaker down to just one member, committing to moving bills through regular order and promising to bring up bills on term limits and border security for floor votes. The California Republican also agreed to drive a hard line in upcoming budget talks, with conservatives who ultimately backed McCarthy calling for caps on spending and changes to programs like Social Security and Medicare. That assurance comes ahead of a standoff between Republicans and Democrats over raising the debt ceiling before the nation defaults. But Democrats have raised concerns that McCarthy has not been forthcoming about the specifics of other concessions he may have made to conservatives to win their votes for Speaker, including whether he promised votes on certain bills or subcommittee gavels to certain lawmakers.
House GOP Bill Would Order Federal Workers Back To Office - House Republicans have introduced a bill that would command legions of federal employees to stop teleworking and return to the office. The Stopping Home Office Work’s Unproductive Problems Act — or “SHOW UP Act” — was introduced by Kentucky Rep. James Comer, who chairs the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability. "Americans have suffered from the federal government’s detrimental pandemic-era telework policies for federal bureaucrats," said Comer. "President Biden’s unnecessary expansion of telework crippled the ability of departments and agencies to fulfill their responsibilities and created cumbersome backlogs." The bill gives federal employees who worked in person prior to the pandemic 30 days to get back to the office. A November Federal News Network survey foundthat 60% of feds were working in a "hybrid" environment, with a third working entirely remotely. Kentucky Rep. James Comer says it's time for federal employees to return to their offices (Tom Williams/Pool via AP and WBKO) Comer says Oversight Committee members have received whistleblower reports indicating that General Service Administration's (GSA) chief Robin Carnahan has spent the majority of her time away from Washington, DC. The SHOW UP Act would also direct federal agencies to study the impact of tele-work on their missions and report their findings to Congress. "The federal government’s expansion of telework during the pandemic has delayed critical assistance to veterans, tax refunds, passport applications, and other basic services," said Comer's office. Agencies would also have to provide data on locality pay received by federal employees -- who may not actually be spending much time in that locality at all.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar get committee assignments back after they were removed by Democrats - Reps. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) are set to get committee assignments back after being stripped from their assignments in the Democratic-controlled Congress in 2021. The House GOP Steering Committee on Tuesday selected Greene to sit on the House Homeland Security and Oversight Committees and Gosar to sit on the House Natural Resources and Oversight Committees, which he sat on before being stripped of his slot on the panel, according to two sources familiar with the selections. The selections of the Steering Committee, a panel of around 30 members of House Leadership and elected regional representatives, will have to be approved by the full House GOP conference. The conference typically approves the Steering Committee’s recommendations. The House Homeland Security Committee, chaired by Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), is expected to put sharp focus on the U.S.-Mexico border and plans to have two committee staff members working from the border. Greene has called to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejando Mayorkas over management of the border. In a statement on her assignment to the Homeland Security committee, Greene said that the panel “will investigate the Biden administration’s violations of our laws and fund (and defund) programs to defend our border and American sovereignty.” The House Oversight Committee is also set to dive into border issues, as well as investigate the business dealings of President Biden’s son Hunter Biden and the origins of COVID-19. Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) will lead that panel. The House voted to remove Greene from her committee assignments in February 2021, just a month after she was sworn into Congress, over her past embrace of conspiracy theories and social media interactions encouraging violence against Democratic officials. Greene said on the House floor that day that she regretted believing conspiracies that were not true. Of the eleven House Republicans who voted in favor of stripping Greene from her posts on the House Education and Budget committees, seven are still in Congress: Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart (Fla.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Carlos Giménez (Fla.), Young Kim (Calif.), Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.), Maria Elvira Salazar (Fla.), and Chris Smith (N.J.). In November 2021, the House voted to censure Gosar and strip him from his committee assignments after he posted an edited anime video on Twitter that depicted him swinging swords at President Biden and killing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Gosar said on the House floor that he does not “espouse violence towards anyone,” and voluntarily took the video down “out of compassion for those who genuinely felt offense.” Then-Reps. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) were the only two Republicans to vote to strip Gosar of his committee assignments, while Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio) voted “present.”
A New Crop of Disruptor-Politicians is failing the Earth --Some politicians just hate politics. They get into the game in order to disrupt it. They have such a visceral hatred of governance that, like suicide bombers, they’ve smuggled themselves into government in order to blow it up from within. Much of the coverage of the multiple attempts to elect Kevin McCarthy as House speaker treated the uprising of the “radical wing” of the Freedom Caucus as a political tactic. The 20 Republicans who opposed McCarthy on more than a dozen votes extracted a series of important concessions before they relented to voting along party lines. In other words, these politicians were playing the time-honored political game of horse trading.But there’s another way of looking at how these far-right politicians held Congress hostage to their demands.Back in 2001, the anti-tax activist Grover Norquist mused that he and his cohort wanted to scale back government until it was small enough “to drown in a bathtub.” The struggle between McCarthy, himself a MAGA toady, and the likes of firebrands Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Andy Biggs (R-AZ), was no mere political game. Rather, Americans were glued to their newsfeeds in the new year watching a new generation of self-hating politicians in their attempts to drown the U.S. government in a bathtub. Don’t believe me? First, let’s take a look at the perps.Twelve of the 20 holdouts rejected the results of the 2020 election and thus participated in the undermining of U.S. democracy. Several, including Scott Perry (R-PA), reportedly sought presidential pardons from Donald Trump for their efforts to overturn the election. Chip Roy (R-TX) has explicitly said that his work is all about “empowering us to stop the machine in this town from doing what it does.” Lauren Boebert wants to dispense with representative government altogether by making it subordinate to churches.These are not politicians. They are coup followers waiting for the return of their authoritarian Godot.Next, let’s look at the concessions this band of not-so-merry pranksters extracted from McCarthy. First there’s the “motion to vacate the chair,” which allows any one member of the House to call a vote to recall the speaker. They should rename this rule the “chaos option,” since it offers pretty much anyone the opportunity to bring the chamber to a standstill over a leadership battle.Another concession requires spending cuts to accompany any decision to raise the debt limit. Raising the debt ceiling to avoid default has become a fraught process in Democratic administrations as Republicans in Congress use the requirement as a way of forcing government shutdowns (for instance in 2013). During Trump’s tenure, Republicans had no qualms about raising the ceiling since their would-be authoritarian leader was in charge of government and transforming it into a incoherent mess. In the next two years, expect the Republicans to demonstrate just how much they hate government by bringing it to the brink of shutdown as often as possible.
Boebert Demands Blocking of Dems From Committee for Being “Conspiracy Theorists” - Saturday, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colorado) claimed that Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff (California) and Eric Swalwell (California) should be barred from serving on the House Intelligence Committee, saying that they are “conspiracy theorists.”Boebert is an election denier and loyalist to former President Donald Trump who has repeatedly peddled false conspiracy theories tied to QAnon. Her comments, made on Fox News on Saturday night, echoed previous statements from Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-California), who has promised not to seat Schiff and Swalwell on the congressional panel.Both Schiff and Swalwell have participated in various investigations into Trump’s alleged wrongdoings. Schiff served as lead manager during Trump’s first impeachment trial, for example, when the former president was accused of trying to coerce Ukrainian leaders to find political dirt on now-President Joe Biden in exchange for military assistance against potential Russian aggression in 2019. Boebert attacked Schiff over his demands for Trump inquiries and implied, without evidence, that Swalwell had shared intelligence with a Chinese spy. (U.S. intelligence officials do not believe Swalwell shared such information.)“They’re really showing their colors, they’re a bunch of Blue Anons, conspiracy theorists, that have these witch hunts and hopes that they chase after,” Boebert said during the Fox News program.
Biden world giddy at MTG, Gosar, and Boebert being placed on Oversight - House Republicans’ installation of some of their most incendiary conservatives on the Oversight Committee is sparking an unexpected feeling inside the White House: unbridled glee. The panel tasked with probing Biden policies and actions, as well as the president’s own family, will be stocked with some of the chamber’s biggest firebrands and die-hard Trumpists — including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) — ideal figureheads for a White House eager to deride the opposition party as unhinged. No administration wants to feel the heat of congressional investigations, and Biden’s team is no different. But privately, the president’s aides sent texts to one another with digital high fives and likened their apparent luck to drawing an inside straight. One White House ally called it a “political gift.” The jubilation was tempered, somewhat, by Democrats on the Hill who expressed more apprehension about the posting. “The English language runs out of adjectives to describe the debasement, cynical debasement of the whole process these appointments represent,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), a senior Oversight panel member, said in an interview. “And it is, I think, a huge black mark on Kevin McCarthy.” Another longtime Oversight panel member, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), warned that the GOP appointments were “frightening,” adding: “As someone who has been on this committee the entire time I’ve been in Congress, I am very concerned.” But underlying Democrats’ worry was the same sense of schadenfreude about the committee’s GOP makeup that they showed as now-Speaker Kevin McCarthy struggled through 15 ballots to win his post. With House GOP leaders set to go on offense over Biden world’s handling of classified documents, the Oversight seats handed to some of their biggest ongoing headaches gave Biden world a clear confidence boost.
George Santos gets two committee assignments - The House GOP Steering Committee on Tuesday recommended that embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) sit on the House Small Business Committee and House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, according to sources familiar with the assignments. Santos’s assignment to the panels comes as multiple members of his own party have called on him to resign over his admitted fabrications about his work history and education, questions about his campaign finances, misleading claims of Jewish heritage, and reported charges in Brazil related to checkbook fraud (which Santos has denied), among other issues. The recommendation from the House GOP Steering Committee, a panel of around 30 members of House Leadership and elected regional representatives, will have to be approved by the full House Republican Conference. The conference typically approves the steering panel’s recommendation. Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) is the newly-assigned chairman of the Small Business Committee, which has jurisdiction over the Small Business Administration and implemented the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan program authorized in response to COVID-19. “I don’t condone what he said, what he’s done. I don’t think anybody does. But that’s not my role. He was elected. He represents a million people,” Williams said of Santos on Tuesday, CNN reported. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) is chair of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, which has jurisdiction over energy, astronautical, marine, and other research areas, as well as agencies like the National Weather Service. The Hill has reached out to the committee for comment. Before his resume fabrications were revealed, Santos told NY1 in November that he hoped to sit on the House Financial Services Committee, “based on my 14-year background in capital markets,” and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, “based on my, I guess, multicultural background as a human being.”
George Santos: New details link New York congressman to Andrew Intrater, cousin of sanctioned Russian oligarch - George Santos, the freshman Republican congressman from New York who lied about his biography, has deeper ties than previously known to a businessman who cultivated close links with a onetime Trump confidant and who is the cousin of a sanctioned Russian oligarch, according to video footage and court documents.Andrew Intrater and his wife each gave the maximum $5,800 to Santos’ main campaign committee and tens of thousands more since 2020 to committees linked to him, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. Intrater’s cousin is Russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg, who has been sanctioned by the U.S. government for his role in the Russian energy industry.The relationship between Santos and Intrater goes beyond campaign contributions, according to a statement made privately by Santos in 2020 and a court filing the following year in a lawsuit brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission against a Florida-based investment firm, Harbor City Capital, where Santos worked for more than a year.Taken together, the evidence suggests Santos may have had a business relationship with Intrater as Santos was first entering politics in 2020. It also shows, according to the SEC filing, that Intrater put hundreds of thousands of dollars into Santos’ onetime employer, Harbor City, which was accused by regulators of running a Ponzi scheme. Neither Santos nor Intrater responded to requests for comment. Attorneys who have represented Intrater also did not respond.The congressman, whose election from Long Island last year helped the GOP secure its narrow House majority, has apologized for what he called “résumé embellishment” while rebuffing calls for his resignation. He is under scrutiny by prosecutors in New York and Rio de Janeiro.Ties between Santos, 34, and Intrater, 60, reflect the ways Santos found personal and political support on his path to public office. While Intrater is a U.S. citizen, his company, the investment firm Columbus Nova, has historically had extensive ties to the business interests of his Russian cousin. As recently as 2018, when Vekselberg was sanctioned by the Treasury Department, his conglomerate was Columbus Nova’s largest client, the company confirmed to The Post that year.Intrater’s interactions in 2016 and 2017 with Michael Cohen, who at the time was working as a lawyer for Donald Trump, were probed during special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible links between Trump and the Kremlin. Intrater’s company paid the lawyer and self-described Trump fixer to identify deals for his business, and court records show they exchanged hundreds of texts and phone calls. In 2020, when Santos was tasked by Harbor City with locating investors in New York, he claimed in a Harbor City meeting held over Zoom that Intrater’s investment firm, Columbus Nova, was a “client” of his, according to footage obtained by The Washington Post.
NY Democrat: Santos a ‘danger to our democracy and national security’ - Democratic Rep. Richie Torres (N.Y.) in a new op-ed called fellow Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) a “danger to our democracy and national security” amid the slew of federal investigations the embattled first-term lawmaker is currently facing. In a piece published by NBC News on Tuesday, Torres said that Santos, who defeated Democrat Robert Zimmerman in New York’s 3rd Congressional District in November’s midterm elections, lied to voters on almost every aspect of his personal and professional life, noting Santos’s failures to tell the truth about his “family heritage, education, business dealings, and philanthropic endeavors.” “Under normal circumstances, the depth and breadth of his deception would shame one into resigning from public office,” Torres wrote in his op-ed. “But these are not normal times, and Santos is shameless not only in lying but in lying about his lying.” Torres also noted Santos’s recent appearance on a podcast hosted by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) where he told the lawmaker that he has lived an “honest life.” “Never mind all the lies Santos has told and the multiple criminal investigations accusing him of wrongdoing,” Torres noted in his op-ed. Torres added that every American should be worried about “the risk” of Santos gaining access to classified information within his congressional duties, saying that “it boggles the mind” how anyone who could mislead people could be trusted to serve in a position in Congress. “The presence of this man in Congress is a danger to our democracy and national security, a disgrace to this institution, and a major distraction from the pressing problems that are far more worthy of our time, energy and attention,” Torres wrote in his op-ed. “It’s time for Santos to recognize that he cannot serve the public he defrauded. His ability to govern has been weakened by a complete collapse of credibility.”
Embattled U.S. Rep. George Santos was drag queen in Brazil pageants, associates say - (Reuters) - U.S. Representative George Santos competed as a drag queen in Brazilian beauty pageants 15 years ago, two acquaintances told Reuters on Wednesday, adding to contrasts that have drawn criticism of the openly gay Republican congressman's staunchly conservative views. The embattled freshman congressman has also faced calls from fellow New York Republicans to step down over fabrications about his career and history. A 58-year-old Brazilian performer, who uses the drag name Eula Rochard, said she befriended the now-congressman when he was cross-dressing in 2005 at the first gay pride parade in Niteroi, a Rio de Janeiro suburb. Three years later, Santos competed in a drag beauty pageant in Rio, Rochard said. Another person from Niteroi who knew the 34-year-old congressman but asked not to be named said he participated in drag queen beauty pageants and aspired to be Miss Gay Rio de Janeiro. The congressman said on Twitter on Thursday that claims "that I am a drag Queen or 'performed' as a drag Queen" are "categorically false," adding: "I will not be distracted nor fazed by this." Santos is the first openly gay Republican to win a House seat in Congress as a non-incumbent, but has positioned himself as a staunch conservative on many social issues. He has backed Florida's controversial "Parental Rights in Education" law, which prohibits classroom discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity, leading critics to call it the "don't say gay" law.
Will Birtherism come back to bite Republicans in the Behind? On top of all his other Lies, is George Santos even a US Citizen? – Suspicions grow that not only did new Congressman George Santos (R-NY) fabricate his educational and employment record but that he fabricated a marriage in order to get a permanent residency permit (“green card”).Let us, as the intel people say, “walk the cat backwards” — ask a series of questions, each reaching further back in time and leading to some logical conclusions.Santos is openly gay. He says he has a husband and wears a wedding band. Fine. But why then did he marry an American women in 2012 and stay married to her seven years, until 2019? If he were born in the U.S., he wouldn’t need a marriage of convenience. But if he were born in Brazil, he would. Is there any record of Santos and his wife actually cohabiting? Where did they live? Do friends and neighbors confirm that? The Immigration and Naturalization Service tries to guard against fake marriages by asking the American spouse detailed questions, such as the applicant’s toothpaste brand. Did the INS do this? After several years with a green card, holders may apply for naturalization. Did Santos? Or did he merely proclaim he was a U.S. citizen and nobody checked? Much could be cleared up if Santos merely showed the media and law enforcement his birth certificate. Why has he not done this? The listed hospital could be checked with a phone call. If it’s a U.S. birth certificate, end of story. But if it’s Brazilian, story is just beginning. Well, Republicans invented birtherism. And what’s the story with Santos’s “wife”? Why has she never been interviewed? What, in fact, is her name? Did she receive any money from Santos? She seems to be making herself scarce. Why would she do that? Because if she participated in a “green-card marriage,” she committed fraud and could suffer fines and jail time along with the applicant. A green card issued under false pretenses is invalid. And using it to apply for naturalization is invalid. Therefore, any such naturalization and subsequent awarding of U.S. citizenship would be invalid. The applicant would remain a foreigner.
Police Violence Reached an All-Time High Last Year—Are We Ready to Shrink Police Budgets? - The year 2022 was the deadliest year on record in the United States for fatalities at the hands of law enforcement. According to the Washington Post’s police shootings database, law enforcement officers shot and killed 1,096 people last year. In comparison, there were 1,048 shooting fatalities at the hands of police the year before, 1,019 the year before that, 997 the year before that, and so on.These numbers are most likely underestimated. According to Abdul Nasser Rad, managing director of research and data at Mapping Police Violence, the Post “only captures incidents where a police officer discharges their firearm and the victim is killed.” This means that it doesn’t count events like the 2014 killing of Eric Garner in New York and the 2020 killing of George Floyd in Minnesota, as both deaths resulted from asphyxiation.In contrast, Mapping Police Violence includes any action that a law enforcement officer takes that results in a fatal encounter. For example, Rad’s project concluded that police killed 1,158 people in 2021 compared to the Post’s figure of 1,048 (final results for 2022 are not yet available).There are other databases of police violence like Fatal Encounters, run by the University of Southern California, that have their own criteria for counting police-related killings. Such projects track police violence because the federal government refuses to, in spite of a 1994 law requiring the Justice Department to keep records. Moreover, there is evidence that biased reporting by medical examiners and coroners in individual cases is helping significantly to cover up the extent of police violence.I will not attempt to pick apart the author’s use of statistics or treatment of correlation as causation. I leave that to readers.The upshot is that in spite of the huge public attention on police violence since 2020, every year cops kill more and more people. We can expect 2023 to be even deadlier if the years-long trend continues.Another clear conclusion is that police violence is dramatically focused on communities of color. According to the Washington Post, Black Americans “are killed by police at more than twice the rate of White Americans,” while Mapping Police Violence finds that “Black people are 2.9x more likely to be killed by police than white people in the U.S.” Police killings of Latinos and Indigenous people are similarly disproportionate.
Ohio Republican Matt Dolan announces bid to flip Sherrod Brown’s Senate seat - Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan (R) on Tuesday announced a bid for the U.S. Senate, becoming the first Republican to enter the race against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a key 2024 contest. “I am unapologetically committed to putting the needs of Ohio first and delivering results as our next U.S. Senator,” Dolan said in a statement. “With the courage of my convictions, clarity of purpose and a resolute focus on the challenges and opportunities facing our beloved state, I am ready to lead.” Dolan, who is considered a moderate Republican, ran for Ohio’s other Senate seat last year but lost in the GOP primary to now-Sen. J.D. Vance. Dolan now hopes to challenge Brown, who has previously said he intends to seek reelection in 2024. Brown’s seat in the increasingly red state is seen a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans in the next election cycle. Russia’s Dnipro strike exposes holes in Ukrainian defense system Wyoming lawmakers say they got what they wanted with proposal to ban EVs “A lot can change in thirty years, but in that time Sherrod Brown’s commitment to his party has remained the same,” Dolan said in Tuesday’s statement. “Together with Joe Biden, Sherrod Brown has kicked America’s problems down the road for a generation. Their time is up.”
Trump trounces DeSantis in potential GOP primary match-up, new poll finds – Former President Trump holds at 17-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in a hypothetical GOP primary match-up, according to a new poll. A Morning Consult poll released Wednesday showed Trump with 48 percent support among potential Republican primary voters, followed by DeSantis with 31 percent. Trump’s front-runner position differs from some polls since the November midterm elections, which have shown DeSantis closing the gap with Trump or taking a lead in some cases.
Democrats introduce constitutional amendment to reverse Citizens United campaign finance ruling -A group of House Democrats introduced a constitutional amendment on Thursday to overturn a Supreme Court ruling that eliminated restrictions on corporate campaign spending.The Supreme Court’s 2010 ruling in the Citizens United v. FEC case prohibited the government from restricting political campaign spending by companies, nonprofit organizations and unions. This amendment, if passed, would allow Congress and state governments to enact “reasonable, viewpoint-neutral” limitations on campaign funding, including restricting corporations from spending “unlimited amounts of money to influence elections.” Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who introduced the amendment, said in a press release that it would “close legal loopholes” that corporations and other wealthy groups have “exploited for far too long.” Schiff has introduced an amendment to overturn the Citizens United ruling every year since 2013, according to the release.“The flow of unrestricted corporate and dark money into our elections has dangerously eroded the American people’s faith in our democracy, and in our government’s ability to deliver for them and their families,” Schiff said in the statement. “Citizens United was one of the most egregious enablers of special interest money, but it was only the latest in a long line of Supreme Court cases that opened the floodgates. To truly rein in dark money, we must amend our Constitution,” he added. The amendment, which was also introduced by Reps. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), would also allow states to set up public campaign financing systems that could restrict the influence of private wealth. “We’ve introduced a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United and the irresponsible SCOTUS decisions that came before it,” Schiff said in a tweet announcing the amendment Thursday. “Unrestricted dark money has no place in our elections or democracy. We need to return power to people. Once and for all.”The 2022 midterm election cycle was the most expensive in history, with outside donors spending more than $2 billion on federal midterm candidates, according to Open Secrets, a nonprofit organization that tracks money in politics.
More classified documents found at Biden’s Delaware home, White House counsel says - Additional classified government documents were found at President Joe Biden's Delaware home this week, the White House confirmed Saturday. In a statement, Richard Sauber, White House special counsel, said that a total of six pages of documents with classification markings were discovered at Biden's Wilmington residence. The White House previously said that only one page was found there. The first document was identified on Wednesday by Biden's personal lawyer and turned over, and the additional five documents were discovered later that week, Sauber said. "The DOJ officials with me immediately took possession of them," he said in the statement. Sauber said the president's lawyers have acted "immediately and voluntarily" to provide the documents to the Department of Justice. The disclosure of the latest discovery comes days after Sauber confirmed media reports that attorneys for the president found an initial batch of classified documents from the Biden administration on Nov. 2 in an office that Biden had used as a private citizen at a Washington think tank. That was nearly three months after FBI agents raided the Florida residence of former President Donald Trump and seized more than 100 classified government documents and hundreds of more records that federal prosecutors say belong to the U.S. government. Trump is the focus of a criminal probe by the DOJ for his removal of the records from the White House in January 2021. Sauber disclosed Thursday that a second batch of documents had been found in Biden's Delaware home. He issued a statement detailing how and where the second batch of documents was found and said a "small number" of records with classified markings were found in the garage. According to a statement Saturday from Biden's personal attorney Bob Bauer, the second batch of documents was discovered in the garage of Biden's Delaware residence on Dec. 20. The president's attorneys conducted another search of the home to look for other classified materials beginning Wednesday, which is when they found the additional records in a room adjacent to the garage. Bauer said the attorneys do not have security clearances, which means they are not aware of the exact number of documents or their content. He said that when an attorney discovered a document with classified markings, they stopped, notified the government, and did not review it.
Discovery of classified documents at Biden's home fuels GOP plans for investigations - The news of the discovery of additional classified documents at President Biden’s home gave new ammunition to Republicans who have already vowed to launch investigations not only into his administration but also into ongoing federal probes, which Democrats warn could be a dangerous new level of partisan meddling in highly sensitive legal matters.Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), the new chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, demanded in a letter dated Sunday that the White House provide by Jan. 30 a list of people who visited Biden’s home in Wilmington, Del., as well as documents and “communications related to the searches” of the home.Comer said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that his committee alsowanted to know who had access to the Penn Biden Center, which is in Washington near the U.S. Capitol.Comer said his committee was also proceeding with an investigation of what he called “Biden family influence peddling,” to include sources of foreign donations and financial support he claimed, without offering any evidence, had come to the Bidens.Pressed on why the committee was apparently not focusing on allegations of foreign influence against Donald Trump, Comer said: “I think the influence peddling with respect to the Trump administration will be a part of our overall investigation because both Democrats and Republicans have complained about this with the previous two administrations.”But Comer seemed to tamp down expectations that the Republican-controlled oversight panel would extensively investigate the previous administration.“There have been so many investigations of President Trump,” Comer said. “I don’t feel like we need to spend a whole lot of time investigating President Trump because the Democrats have done that for the past six years.”The latest in the slow drip of news of classified documents in Biden’s possession came Saturday, when the White House disclosed that another set of classified government materials was found in Biden’s Wilmington home. The document discoveries are now the subject of a Justice Department special counsel investigation. Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed a special prosecutor, as he did earlier with Trump.
McConnell calls on Department of Justice to treat Trump and Biden equally -Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday called on special counsels at the Department of Justice to treat former President Trump and President Biden equally as they investigate their possession of classified documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort and Biden’s Washington office and home in Delaware. McConnell has feuded with Trump over that past two years but McConnell nevertheless stuck up for the former Republican president, warning federal prosecutors to apply the same set of standards to both investigations. “I think the important thing with regard to documents is that both these guys ought to be treated exactly the same way. Exactly the same way. And so I think the attorney general probably did the right thing by having two special counsels,” McConnell told Terry Meiners on Kentucky’s NewsRadio 840 WHAS. “What’s good for one candidate for president ought to be good for another one,” the Senate GOP leader added. Attorney General Merrick Garland last week appointed Robert Hur, the former U.S. attorney for District of Maryland, to serve as special counsel handling the investigation of classified documents found at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement and at a garage at Biden’s home in Wilmington, Delaware. Garland appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith in November to oversee the Justice Department’s investigations of Trump, including his possession of more than 300 classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. Trump has accused the Justice Department of acting out of political motivation, calling its investigation of him “rigged” and dismissing Smith as a “political hit man.” Republicans including Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) called on Garland last week to appoint a special counsel to investigate Biden’s possession of classified documents, arguing the failure to do so would be tantamount to setting a double standard for the former president and sitting president. White House charges GOP with hypocrisy on Trump, Biden New York will offer free abortion pills at city-run health clinics Senate Democrats have largely stayed quiet on the subject of Biden’s possession of classified documents, something the president himself said he was not aware of before they were discovered late last year and reported to the Justice Department.
Blinken says he had no knowledge of documents taken to Penn Biden Center (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday he had no knowledge at the time of any classified documents taken to the Penn Biden Center, after some classified documents from President Joe Biden's time as vice president were discovered at the center. While outside of government, Blinken served as managing director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, which was affiliated with the University of Pennsylvania but located in Washington. "Just as you heard from President Biden about a week ago I was surprised to learn that there were any government records taken to the Penn Biden Center. I had no knowledge of it at the time," Blinken said when asked about the documents, adding he would cooperate fully with a Justice Department review.
White House under pressure to explain why it didn’t reveal documents discovery earlier - The White House is under mounting pressure to explain why the discovery of classified Biden documents was not immediately revealed to the public, with critics openly questioning if there was an intentional effort to keep the first find quiet in the lead up to the midterm elections. The first batch of documents were first discovered on Nov. 2, which was just six days away from the election. But the White House did not disclose the findings until after they were reported by CBS News earlier this week. “That’s your version of the case,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said when asked on Friday if not revealing the discovery when it happened was to protect the president from political damage. “I’ve been very clear here and I’ve answered that question multiple times, in different versions, in the last couple of days. Look, I want to very clear: There’s a process here, we are going to respect that process,” she added, responding “no” when asked if staff were involved in crafting a strategy as to when the disclosure should be made. A second batch of classified documents was found in a storage space in the garage of Biden’s Wilmington, Del., residence on Dec. 20, and another one-page document was discovered among stored materials in an adjacent room this week. The search of Biden’s residence was completed on Wednesday. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Robert Hur as special counsel to investigate the discovery of classified documents on Thursday, following the announcement of additional documents found at Biden’s Wilmington residence. He also said he was notified in real time when the White House found the documents. “The timing of the revelation of the document discovery is indeed curious,” said former Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.), a longtime Biden ally and former intelligence officer. “President Biden must be accountable and accept responsibility for this awkward episode. The most important thing here is not preventing political embarrassment, it’s protecting our nation’s security.” Reporters pointed out on Friday that while Jean-Pierre says she answered questions throughout the week on the documents, she’s only faced questions at all because CBS broke the news. She argued that’s because it’s an ongoing process.
White House defends its delayed, limited document disclosure (AP) — The White House brushed aside criticism Tuesday of its fragmented disclosures about the discovery of classified documents and official records at President Joe Biden’s home and former office, saying it may withhold information to protect the Justice Department’s investigation. Ian Sams, a spokesperson for the White House counsel’s office, told reporters that the White House was releasing information as it deemed it “appropriate.” Responding to criticism of the piecemeal disclosures, Sams said the White House was trying to be mindful of the “risk” in sharing information “that’s not complete.” “We’re endeavoring to be as transparent and informative to you all in the media, to the public as we can consistent with respecting the integrity of an ongoing Justice Department investigation,” he said. The discovery of the documents in Biden’s possession complicates a federal probe into former President Donald Trump, who the Justice Department says took hundreds of records marked classified with him upon leaving the White House in early 2021 and resisted months of requests to return them to the government. While the two cases are different — Biden for example, willingly turned over the documents once found — it still has become a political headache for a president who promised a clean break from the operations of the Trump administration.
Adam Schiff Admits Possible National Security Jeopardized With Biden Documents -- You know it's bad when... No lessor liar than Rep. Adam Schiff (R-Calif.), the now former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, admitted this morning that it's possible national security was jeopardized after President Joe Biden's lawyers confirmed classified documents were found in various locations. "I don't think we can exclude the possibility without knowing more of the facts," the California Democrat said of the Biden documents when pressed by "This Week" co-anchor Jonathan Karl about any national security risks. "We have asked for an assessment in the intelligence community of the Mar-a-Lago documents," Schiff said. "I think we ought to get that same assessment of the documents found in the think tank as well as the home of President Biden. I'd like to know what these documents were. I'd like to know what the [intelligence community's] assessment is, whether there was any risk of exposure and what the harm would be and whether any mitigation needs to be done." Of course, Schiff was quick to get back on track with the narrative, as echoing the media and most other Democrats, the Russia collusion hoaxer asserted that Biden’s and Trump’s cases are different because Biden, he said, is cooperating. “The Biden approach was very different in the sense that it looks that it was inadvertent that these documents were at these locations,” Schiff said. “There was no effort to hold onto them, no effort to conceal them, no effort to obstruct the Justice Department’s investigation.”
All The President's Men: Biden's Use Of Lawyers Raises Additional Concerns Over Handling Classified Material by Jonathan Turley - Below is my column in the New York Post on the curious use of lawyers by President Joe Biden in the classified document controversy. There was a clear decision made to rely on his own counsel rather than the FBI or security officers after the discovery of highly classified documents in a closet in a private office. The decision clearly brings greater control and protection for the President, but it can itself be viewed as additional evidence of gross mishandling of classified material. In the movie “All The President’s Men,” Woodward chastises his colleague Bernstein that “I don’t mind what you did; I mind how you did it.” President Biden may face the same objection in his decision to use counsel to search for classified material. Here is the column: The discovery of a fourth set of classified documents, at the Biden residence in Delaware, has further undermined the White House’s virtual mantra that the president “takes classified documents very seriously.” Putting aside the repeated movement of highly classified documents over six years, one curious element has emerged in this scandal: the use of private counsel. Not only did President Joe Biden enlist lawyers to clear out his private Washington office; he then used them — rather than security officers or the FBI — to search for additional classified documents. The initial use of lawyers is notable. While it seems a fairly pricey moving crew, Biden could argue a trove of documents might require a judgment on where they should be sent and whether they belong to Biden, the Penn Biden Center or the government. But why was a legal team sent in six years after Biden took the documents on leaving as vice president? Were the lawyers specifically selected because they had clearances, an acknowledgment there might be classified material unlawfully housed in the office? After the fourth batch of documents was discovered this week (the third found in Delaware), Richard Sauber, referred to as the “special counsel to the president,” stressed that he has a clearance. Sauber admits the lawyers who found the first batch at the residence didn’t have clearances but says he found the later documents. It remains unclear which lawyers were involved in which discoveries, whether they had clearances and (if so) at what level. In fact, it seems to suggest Biden continued to use uncleared lawyers after his team found highly classified documents Nov. 2 in the Penn Biden office closet in Washington. That itself could be viewed as gross mishandling of classified information. It’s strange Biden did not use security officers or the FBI to conduct further searches. The president has a host of people who regularly handle classified material. So why use the lawyers?
White House charges GOP with hypocrisy on Trump, Biden The White House blasted Republicans on Tuesday, accusing them of hypocrisy with how they’ve handled the separate controversies surrounding classified documents found at President Biden’s garage and office and former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. In a call with reporters, White House aides accused the GOP of engaging in “political theater” by attacking Biden while giving a free pass to Trump. “The president and his team have been fully cooperating, acting responsibly and ensuring that this is handled properly,” said Ian Sams, a spokesman for the White House Counsel’s Office. “You’ve seen something far different emerging among elected Republicans. What are they doing? They’ve decided that it’s time for more political stunts and theater.“ The call was set up after a difficult week for the White House that found Democrats struggling at times to explain why documents had been taken to Biden’s garage and office, and why the public hadn’t been told about them until Jan. 10 — when the news first broke about the discovery. The White House first discovered that classified documents from Biden’s time as vice president had been taken to the Penn Biden Center in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 2 — before the midterm elections and after Biden and other Democrats had blasted Trump over classified documents at Mar-a-Lago found earlier in the year. The White House Counsel’s Office notified the National Archives of the discovery days later and the Archives then notified the Department of Justice. Attorney General Merrick Garland last week appointed a special counsel to look into the issue after Garland had previously appointed a special counsel to look into the Trump classified documents matter. On Tuesday, days after House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) asked if the White House had a visitor log for Biden’s Wilmington, Del., residence, Biden’s team sought to go on offense by accusing the GOP overreaching on the issue. Comer, in an interview with CNN, also called Biden’s residence a “crime scene” after the classified documents were discovered at Biden’s home.
Biden's approval at 40%, near lowest of his presidency - Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's public approval rating was close to the lowest level of his presidency this week amid criticism from Republicans over classified documents found in his home in recent months, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. The three-day national poll, which closed on Sunday, showed 40% of Americans approved of Biden's performance as president, versus 39% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll a month earlierBiden began 2023 buoyed by unexpectedly strong midterm election results for Democrats. U.S. inflation was also falling and the Republican Party appeared in disarray after taking days to elect a speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.But the latest poll numbers suggest those factors may not have significantly changed the public view of the president as he prepares for an expected re-election bid in 2024.
Biden has 'no regrets' about handling of classified documents (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday he has "no regrets" about his handling of classified documents found at his home and former office and that he believes the matter will be resolved. "I think you're gonna find there's nothing there," Biden told reporters as he toured storm damage in California. "I have no regrets. I'm following what the lawyers have told me they want me to do. It's exactly what we're doing. There's no there there." Attorney General Merrick Garland last week named a special counsel to investigate the matter after classified documents were found at Biden's Wilmington, Delaware, home and a Washington, D.C., office he used before becoming president. "We're fully cooperating and looking forward to getting this resolved quickly," Biden said. Biden said he has been doing as instructed by his lawyers after "a handful of documents were filed in the wrong place." He said the documents were immediately turned over to the National Archives after they were found.
DOJ search of Biden home turned up six more classified documents: lawyer - Department of Justice officials found six more documents with classified markings at President Biden’s Wilmington, Del., home during a Friday search, the president’s personal attorney said in a statement on Saturday. Bob Bauer, a personal lawyer for Biden, said in a statement that the Justice Department was given access to the president’s home after previous searches in recent weeks had turned up a total of 11 classified documents. “DOJ requested that the search not be made public in advance, in accordance with its standard procedures, and we agreed to cooperate,” Bauer said. “DOJ had full access to the President’s home, including personally handwritten notes, files, papers, binders, memorabilia, to-do lists, schedules, and reminders going back decades,” Bauer continued. “DOJ took possession of materials it deemed within the scope of its inquiry, including six items consisting of documents with classification markings and surrounding materials, some of which were from the President’s service in the Senate and some of which were from his tenure as Vice President. DOJ also took for further review personally handwritten notes from the vice-presidential years.” The search lasted roughly 13 hours, Bauer said, and covered working, living and storage spaces in the home. Representatives from Biden’s personal legal team and the White House counsel’s office were there while Justice Department officials conducted the search. The FBI, an agency within the Justice Department, executed the search, which was “planned” and “consensual,” a DOJ official told The Hill. Biden is spending the weekend at his property in Rehoboth Beach, Del., which is about 90 miles south of Wilmington. Biden spent last weekend in Wilmington. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declined to comment when asked Friday if the decision for Biden to go to Rehoboth Beach was related to documents being found in Wilmington. In a separate statement, White House special counsel Richard Sauber said Biden directed his personal lawyers to fully cooperate with the Justice Department. “Since the beginning, the President has been committed to handling this responsibly because he takes this seriously,” Sauber said in a statement.
Why Was Hunter Paying Joe Biden $50k Per Month To Rent House Where Classified Documents Found? -- A Thursday tweet from the NY Post's Miranda Devine containing a background check for Hunter Biden has people asking questions. The now-52-year-old began listing the Wilmington home as his address following his 2017 divorce from ex-wife Kathleen Buhle — even falsely claiming he owned the property on a July 2018 background check form as part of a rental application," the Post reported. Of note, this is the same house where classified documents were found. Yet, upon closer inspection, Hunter lists the "Monthly Rent" as $49,910 - or roughly $550,000 for the 11 months he indicated he lived there? In 2018 Hunter Biden claimed he owned the house where Joe Biden kept classified documents alongside his Corvette in the garage Via @jj_talking pic.twitter.com/L7c80MRRiS — Miranda Devine (@mirandadevine) January 12, 2023 A Zillow search reveals that the most expensive home currently for rent in Wilmington, Delaware is going for $6,000 per month. According to Town & Country magazine, Biden's home is worth around $2 million. Could Hunter, a crackhead, have accidentally listed the annual rent payment to his father for the house which contained classified documents? Sure. But why was his wealthy ex-VP dad charging him rent in the first place, when Hunter was allegedly broke? Trending Politics asks the quiet part out loud; was this Hunter's way of funneling money to his father? After Hunter’s divorce was finalized in May of 2017, he was included in an email from his business partner James Gilliar about a venture with Chinese state-funded energy company CEFC China Energy. The email stated that Hunter and his partners would receive 20% of the shares in the new business, with 10% going to Hunter’s uncle James Biden and the other 10% being “held by H for the big guy.” Tony Bobulinski, another one of Hunter’s former business partners, claims that he had a meeting with Joe Biden regarding the CEFC venture on May 2, 2017, and that the president was the individual referred to as the “big guy” in Gilliar’s email. Additionally, Gilliar himself confirmed that Joe Biden was the “big guy” mentioned in a message found on the laptop. And as the NY Post reports, "The following year, federal investigators began looking into whether Hunter and his business associates violated tax and money laundering laws during their dealings in China and other countries. Emails and other records related to the deals were found on the laptop, which Hunter dropped off at a Delaware repair shop in 2019 and never reclaimed." "I hope you all can do what I did and pay for everything for this entire family for 30 years," Hunter told his daughter Naomi in January, 2019. "It’s really hard. But don’t worry, unlike pop, I won’t make you give me half your salary."
Hunter Biden Lived In Classified Doc House While Raking In Millions Through Chinese Intelligence Ties - National security concerns over Joe Biden's classified document scandal just got worse, as two reports have emerged which place Hunter Biden at the Bidens' Wilmington, Delaware residence while he was raking in millions of dollars from CCP-linked business dealings. First, Seamus Bruner (researcher for legendary bombshell-dropper Peter Schweizer), reports via Breitbart News, that "While addicted to drugs, cavorting with prostitutes, and making deals with businessmen tied to the highest levels of Chinese intelligence, Hunter Biden lived in the house where Joe Biden stored classified documents." While filling out a background check, Hunter made a crackhead error and listed his 'rent' as $49,910 - when in fact that's the amount of the security deposit and 6 months of rent for prime office space at the prestigious House of Sweden in Washington DC. What's most interesting, however, is that the dates Hunter listed as living at the Wilmington, DE residence - as claimed on other documents and financial statements - overlap with the period in which multiple Biden family members were taking money from foreign businessmen with connections at the highest levels of Chinese state intelligence services through energy company CEFC. As Bruner further notes, CNN described CEFC as a state-directed entity in 2018. CEFC, and at least four of its executives and associates - Ye Jianming, Patrick Ho, Gongwen Dong and Jiaqi Bao, have been linked to the CCP and its military intelligence apparatus. In one case, Hunter described Patrick Ho as "the fucking spy chief of China."
The Importance Of Being Biden- How Hunter Reached New Low Seeking To Bar Daughter From Using His - In Oscar Wilde’s “The Importance of Being Ernest,” the main character’s search for his true name comes to a head when he finally demands “would you kindly inform me who I am?” In an astonishing filing this week, Hunter Biden answered that question for his four-year-old daughter Navy Joan and effectively declared “you are no Biden. Hunter Biden’s disgraceful treatment of his daughter has long been on display in Arkansas where he long denied being her father, fought paternity, and was threatened with contempt of court over his failure to supply needed documents. After DNA testing was forced by a court, Hunter was found to be the father but he continued to resist efforts to force him to pay child support and supply financial records. Recently, Lunden Roberts sought to have a surname change for her daughter to Biden. Even after his long and abusive treatment of his daughter in court, Hunter Biden’s opposition is breathtaking. He opposes his daughter using his name and says that, if she does, she will never have a “peaceful existence.” Of course, Biden did not feel that way with his other four children. They are all true Bidens and living peaceful existences. It is only Navy Joan who he does not want to bear the family name. Hunter’s concern for Navy Joan’s peaceful existence is a bit odd since he has reportedly never even seen his daughter after fighting for years to deny his paternal status and child support. While living in a luxurious mansion in Malibu, Hunter continued to fight his obligations under child support and requested in September 2022 to have the payments lowered, bemoaning how his “financial circumstances” were difficult for him. The public pays more for his security in his mansion than he does in monthly support for his daughter. Hunter is asking Circuit Court Judge Holly Meyer to deny Navy Joan the ability to use her father’s surname and claiming that it is in her best interest. The filing is so self-serving and transparently dishonest that it does what was once thought impossible: reach a new low for Hunter. All of his reported selfies having sex and doing drugs with prostitutes were shocking. His attacks on his former sister-in-law, Hallie Biden, widow of the deceased brother (with whom Hunter later had a romantic relationship), were appalling. However, the craven effort to deny this child his name reaches a level of cad that stands unrivaled. The position of Hunter in court has been disgraceful, but the media has largely ignored the matter. It has also ignored the utter lack of support from President Joe Biden and the First Lady, who tellingly omitted a stocking for Navy Joan as one of their grandchildren. (The dog and cat did receive stockings). There is no record that Joe or Jill Biden have ever sought to meet, let alone embrace, their grandchild. The President has, however, sought to deny the child security protection (despite his son’s concern for her “peaceful existence”). Joe Biden has long campaigned against “deadbeat Dads” but when a Fox reporter asked about Hunter’s refusal to pay child support, President Biden snapped at him and refused to answer the question on the “personal matter.” (The media also ignored Hunter’s deadbeat dad record in fawning interviews about this “bravery” in writing a book on his life).
New Brett Kavanaugh Sexual Assault Allegations Revealed in Secret Sundance Doc -- Brett Kavanaugh’s 2018 confirmation to the Supreme Court was embroiled in controversy when multiple women accused him of sexual assault. One of them, Christine Blasey Ford, testified before Congress about the alleged attempted rape she suffered at his hands in high school. Justice is a horrifying and infuriating inquiry into those claims, told in large part by friends of Ford, lawyers and medical experts, and another of Kavanaugh’s alleged victims: Deborah Ramirez, a classmate of his at Yale.Most damning of all, it features a never-heard-before audio recording made by one of Kavanaugh’s Yale colleagues—Partnership for Public Service president and CEO Max Stier—that not only corroborates Ramirez’s charges, but suggests that Kavanaugh violated another unnamed woman as well.A last-minute addition to this year’s Sundance Film Festival, Justice is the first feature documentary helmed by Doug Liman, a director best known for Hollywood hits like Swingers, Go, The Bourne Identity, and Edge of Tomorrow. His latest is far removed from those fictional mainstream efforts, caustically censuring Kavanaugh and the political process that elevated him to the nation’s highest judicial bench, and casting a sympathetic eye on Ford, Ramirez ,and their fellow accusers. Liman’s film may not deliver many new bombshells, but he and writer/producer Amy Herdy makes up for a relative dearth of explosive revelations by lucidly recounting this ugly chapter in recent American history, as well as by giving voice to women whose allegations were picked apart, mocked and, ultimately, ignored.
Opening statements, first witness in Proud Boys seditious conspiracy trial After several delays, federal prosecutors and lawyers for the defendants in the seditious conspiracy trial of five members of the Proud Boys militia group made their opening arguments on January 12. The Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, III Percenters and other right-wing militia groups led the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 aimed at stopping the certification of the Electoral College vote and keeping former President Donald Trump in power. While some 930 Trump supporters, white supremacists, neo-Nazis and other fascists have been charged for their actions in service of Trump’s coup, neither the former president nor any of his high-level Republican co-conspirators, such as former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, coup lawyers Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman or Trump’s “Stop the Steal” allies in Congress and on the Supreme Court have been charged, more than two years after the failed coup. In addition to the Civil War-era charge of sedition, former Proud Boys Chairman Henry “Enrique” Tarrio and his top lieutenants—Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs, Zachary Rehl and Dominic Pezzola—are facing several other felony charges that could mean decades behind bars if convicted. All five have entered “not guilty” pleas. In seeking to prove that the Proud Boys’ attack on Congress was a pre-planned assault aimed at overturning the election, Assistant US Attorney Jason McCullough promised to show the jury private and public communications from the group. These include messages celebrating the attack, as well as attempts to “cover their tracks.” In his opening statement last Thursday, McCullough said that the Proud Boys, led by Tarrio, “joined together and agreed to use any means necessary, including force, to stop Congress from certifying the election.” Refuting claims from Trump and Republican politicians, widely echoed by pseudo-left elements, that the failed coup was an unrehearsed riot, McCullough said, “You will know by the way [the defendants] took direct aim at the Electoral College certification that this was the result of an agreement.” McCullough proceeded to cite several electronic messages sent and received on the “Ministry of Self-Defense (MOSD)” encrypted Telegram channel that was created by Tarrio on December 29, 2020. This was the main channel Tarrio and the accused used to coordinate their attack on January 6, McCullough said. McCullough explained that Tarrio was the head of the MOSD group, and Nordean was his second-in-command. Biggs, who like Tarrio is an admitted FBI informant, was afforded a leadership role due to his prior military experience. These “lords of war” McCullough said, borrowing language used by Tarrio, “joined together to stop the transfer of presidential power.”
Judge denies Navarro effort to dismiss contempt case for defying Jan. 6 committee – A federal judge on Thursday rejected a last-ditch effort by Peter Navarro, a former adviser to former President Donald Trump, to dismiss the contempt of Congress charges he faces for defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee, keeping his late January trial on track to begin. U.S. District Court Judge Amit Mehta said Navarro had failed to prove that the former president wanted him to assert executive privilege over his potential testimony — a key claim that Navarro has long maintained justified his decision to simply blow off the select committee’s subpoena. But Navarro provided no evidence of his claim, asserting only that Trump privately asked him to invoke executive privilege. Without at least a shred of proof that Trump made a “formal” assertion of executive privilege, Mehta said, he could not grant Navarro’s motion. “Defendant has failed to come forward with any evidence to support the claimed assertion of privilege. And, because the claimed assertion of executive privilege is unproven, Defendant cannot avoid prosecution for contempt,” Mehta wrote in in the 39-page ruling. It’s a significant decision in an area with little precedent: what current and former presidents must do to assert executive privilege. Mehta acknowledged that there’s not much to guide how courts should determine when a proper assertion has been made. But he said limited court rulings on the subject suggest there must be at least some formal evidence it occurred. Mehta noted that two other Trump aides whom the House sought to hold in contempt — Mark Meadows and Dan Scavino — produced letters from Trump ordering them to assert executive privilege on his behalf. The Justice Department declined to prosecute the men, and Mehta indicated that the absence of a similar letter from Trump to Navarro led to a reasonable conclusion that Trump had not asserted executive privilege over his testimony. Mehta’s ruling means that Navarro’s trial on two charges of contempt of Congress is likely to commence later this month. He faces a maximum sentence of a year in prison on each charge — one for refusing to testify and the other for refusing to provide documents — if convicted.
Nixon Threatened to Reveal the CIA's Involvement in the Kennedy Assassination Shocking new Watergate-era tape reveals. - Roger Stone - A stunning, long-overlooked Nixon Watergate-era tape shows Richard Nixon warning CIA Director Richard Helms that he knows of CIA involvement in the murder of John F. Kennedy- “I know who shot John.” This shocking new tape depicts Nixon increasingly besieged by Watergate but unaware that at least four of the Watergate burglars were still on the CIA payroll at the time of the break-in, and that the CIA had thus infiltrated the burglary team. Recently declassified documents reveal that Watergate Special Prosecutor Nick Akerman was aware of both the CIA’s advance knowledge and involvement in the break-in — but said and did nothing.Senator Howard Baker, the Republican Leader on the Senate Watergate Committee and his counsel Fred Thompson himself, a future U.S. Senator from Tennessee, like Baker, stumbled on the CIA's deep advanced knowledge and direct involvement in the Watergate break-in. Baker and Thompson both knew that at least four of the Watergate burglars were on the CIA payroll at the time of the break-in and that through CREEP Security Director James McCord, had infiltrated the burglary team. Senate Watergate Committee Chairman Sam Ervin stoutly refused to allow Baker and the Committee Republicans including Edward J. Gurney of Florida the right to publish a Minority Report which noted this stunning information regarding the CIA.Nixon deeply distrusted the CIA because he knew that President Eisenhower had ordered the agency to give top secret briefings to both Nixon and Kennedy after both were the certain nominees of their parties. Nixon was sore that Kennedy utilized the information in their debates, attacking Nixon for being "soft" on communist Cuba, knowing full well that Nixon had chaired a working group as Vice President overseeing preparations for the "Bay of Pigs" invasion. Nixon, of course, could not reveal this upcoming attempt to topple Castro in the details.White House Domestic Policy Chief John Ehrlichman wrote that when he served as the White House Legal Counsel, Nixon ordered him to request that the CIA hand over all documents pertaining to John Kennedy's murder. Nixon was furious when Richard Helms, the CIA Director, refused his presidential order to hand them over.This stunning new Watergate-era tape captures an increasingly besieged Nixon desperately seeking to mobilize the CIA in his defense by threatening to expose their greatest secrets. Nixon also knew that Congressman Gerald Ford, as a member of the Warren Commission, had, at the explicit direction of J. Edgar Hoover, the FBI Director, altered the official autopsy diagram for President John F. Kennedy; moving the marking from a bullet in his upper back to his neck in order to accommodate the single-bullet theory and to conceal the fact that Kennedy had been hit with more than the reported three shots.Nixon was acutely aware of Ford's act of treachery in concealing the truth about Kennedy's murder and the CIA's involvement in it. White House Chief of Staff General Alexander Haig told me in an interview that "Nixon had Ford by the balls." The five-star General said, "Nixon had me tell Ford that is he (Nixon) was going down, he was taking everybody with him."
How Adam Schiff Helped Put the US and Russia on the Brink of WWIII - With each new release of the “Twitter Files” we learn more and more about the deep corruption in Washington. We sensed during Covid that something was really wrong, but thanks to Elon Musk’s decision to open the books, our worst fears have been proven true. Each new release seems to show something even more criminal inside America’s rotten ruling class. In the latest release, thanks to the excellent reporting of independent journalist Matt Taibbi, we see outgoing Chair of the House Intelligence Community, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), continuously pressuring Twitter to validate his fantasies of “Russian bots” manipulating US politics. The short version of what Taibbi reported comes from around the time then-Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) was about to release his Committee’s findings about the FBI misuse of the FISA Court to spy on the Trump presidential campaign. The FBI, it turns out, relied exclusively on the widely-discredited “Steele Dossier” – paid by the Hillary Clinton campaign – as justification to spy on the Trump campaign. When pressure grew to release the Nunes findings, Twitter exploded with users demanding that Congress “release the memo.” That’s where then-ranking Member Schiff and his staff began relentlessly pressuring Twitter to show that the accounts demanding the release of the memo were actually Russian agents, out to help their supposed favorite, Donald Trump. Schiff was not alone. Fellow “Russiagate” hoaxers like Sen. Feinstein (D-CA) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) also pressured Twitter to find Russians behind the demand to release Nunes’ findings. Over and over, Twitter – which was hardly sympathetic to Trump – told Schiff and his colleagues there was simply no evidence of Russian involvement. As much as some Twitter employees may have liked to report the opposite, to their credit they refused to participate in the scam. Even after Twitter had informed Schiff and his fellow hoaxers that there was no Russian involvement, Sen. Blumenthal released a statement he knew was not true: “We find it reprehensible that Russian agents have so eagerly manipulated innocent Americans.” Again, this was right after he had been informed by Twitter employees – who were by-and-large strongly opposed to Trump – that there was just no evidence to back up such a statement. We are moving closer and closer to a nuclear showdown with Russia over Ukraine. For political gain the Democrats – and plenty of Republicans – have been pushing the “Russiagate” hoax and in so doing have fertilized the ground for the obsessive Russia hatred prevalent in the US today. I do not believe it is an exaggeration to say that if US/Russia relations had not been poisoned by the lie of “Russiagate” for pure political gain, we would not be anywhere near our current state of near-direct conflict with the largest nuclear power on earth, Russia. It is shocking that Schiff and his "Russiagate" allies would potentially sacrifice millions of dead Americans to defeat Trump and other political enemies.
Western Journalists Are Cowardly, Approval-Seeking Losers – Caitlin Johnstone -Research conducted by New York University’s Center for Social Media and Politics into Russian trolling behavior on Twitter in the lead-up to the 2016 US presidential election has found “no evidence of a meaningful relationship between exposure to the Russian foreign influence campaign and changes in attitudes, polarization, or voting behavior.”Which is to say that all the years of hysterical shrieking about Russian trolls interfering in US democracy and corrupting the fragile little minds of Americans — a narrative that has been used to drum up support for internet censorship and ever-increasing US government involvement in the regulation of online speech — was false.And to be clear, this isn’t actually news. It was established years ago that the St Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency could not possibly have had any meaningful impact on the 2016 election, because the scope of its operations was quite small, its posts were mostly unrelated to the election and many were posted after the election occurred, and its funding was dwarfed by orders of magnitude by domestic campaigns to influence the election outcome.What’s different this time around, six years after Trump’s inauguration, is that this time the mass media are reporting on these findings.The Washington Post has an article out with the brazenly misleading headline “Russian trolls on Twitter had little influence on 2016 voters“. Anyone who reads the article itself will find its author Tim Starks acknowledges that “Russian accounts had no measurable impact in changing minds or influencing voter behavior,” but the insertion of the word “little” means anyone who just reads the headline (the overwhelming majority of people encountering the article) will come away with the impression that Russian trolls still had some influence on 2016 voters.“Little influence” could mean anything shy of tremendous influence. But the study did not find that Russian trolls had “little influence” over the election; it failed to find any measurable influence at all.
Musk Says ZeroHedge Did Nothing Warranting Suspension After 'Twitter Files' Expose Big Pharma Bullying - Today's Twitter Files drop contains several notable pieces of evidence. First, that lobbyists for the pharmaceutical industry launched a 'massive lobbying blitz to crush any effort to share patents/IP for new covid-related medicine," according to The Intercept's Lee Fang. As part of this effort, lobbying group BIO "wrote to the newly elected Biden admin, demanding the U.S. gov sanction any country attempting to violate patent rights and create generic low cost covid medicine or vaccines." Of note, Pfizer and BioNTech raked in $37 billion in revenue in 2021 alone from the COVID-19 vaccine, while Moderna made $17.7 billion the same year (and has recently announced a plan to hike the price of the Covid-19 vaccine by approximately 400%). BioNTech, which developed the Pfizer vaccine, "reached out to Twitter to request that Twitter directly censor users tweeting at them to ask for generic low cost vaccines."5. That brings us to Twitter. The global lobbying blitz includes direct pressure on social media. BioNTech, which developed Pfizer's vaccine, reached out to Twitter to request that Twitter directly censor users tweeting at them to ask for generic low cost vaccines. pic.twitter.com/6cVIRcUDZV— Lee Fang (@lhfang) January 16, 2023According to Fang, "Twitter's reps responded quickly to the pharma request," while "A lobbyist in Europe asked the content moderation team to monitor the accounts of Pfizer, AstraZeneca & of activist hashtags like #peoplesvaccine." Meanwhile, the "fake accounts" flagged by the pharmaceutical companies for action were real people - one of whom Fang spoke with on the phone.8. It's not clear what actions Twitter ultimately took on this particular request. Several Twitter employees noted in subsequent messages that none of this activism constituted abuse. But the company continued monitoring tweets.— Lee Fang (@lhfang) January 16, 2023"For more than two years, a global movement has been speaking out against pharmaceutical greed and demanding that everyone, everywhere has the tools to combat pandemics," said Maaza Seyoum, a campaigner for the People’s Vaccine Alliance. "Whatever nasty tricks companies and governments pull," she continued, "we cannot and will not be silenced." Second, 'Pfizer & Moderna's lobbying group, BIO, fully funded a special content moderation campaign designed by a contractor called Public Good Projects (PGP), which worked w/Twitter to set content moderation rules around covid "misinformation."' according to Fang. BIO funded the PGP campaign, "Stronger," to the tune of $1.275 million. Its focus? Helping Twitter 'create content moderation bots,' selecting which public health accounts would be verified, and helping to crowdsource content takedowns. Of note, the Moderna/Pfizer-funded campaign included regular emails to Twitter officals with takedown and verification requests. "Here's an example of those types of emails that went straight to Twitter's lobbyists and content moderators. Many focused on @zerohedge, which was suspended."
Mapping Out All The Key Revelations From The 'Twitter Files' So Far - Documents revealed by Twitter’s new owner, tech billionaire Elon Musk, show the social media company intertwined with a government-private censorship apparatus. Twitter suppressed or removed content on various subjects, including irregularities in the 2020 elections, mail-in voting issues, and various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The company was under government pressure to purge such content and its purveyors from the platform, though most of the time it was cooperating with the censorship requests willingly, the documents indicate. INFOGRAPHIC (Click on image to enlarge or Click Here to download) Click on infographic to enlarge. Musk took over Twitter in October, taking the company private. He then fired around half of the staff and much of the upper management, vowing to take Twitter in a new direction. The “#TwitterFiles” releases have been part of his promised focus on transparency for the company. He allowed several independent journalists to submit search queries that were then used by Twitter staff to search through the company’s internal documents, sometimes under the condition that the resulting stories would be first published on the platform itself. The two journalists primarily responsible for the releases have been journalists Matt Taibbi, a former contributing editor for Rolling Stone magazine, and Bari Weiss, a former editor at both The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Both are liberals who have expressed disillusionment with the more extreme currents of progressivism and neoliberalism. Others involved in the releases have been independent journalists Lee Fang and David Zweig, former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, as well as author and environmentalist Michael Shellenberger. The journalists have only released a fraction of the documents they reviewed. They’ve also redacted the names of employees involved, other than some high-level executives. The documents show that the FBI and other state, local, and federal agencies have been scrutinizing the political speech of Americans on a significant scale, and trying to get lawful speech suppressed or removed online. Many conservative and traditionally liberal commentators have deemed that a violation of the First Amendment. Twitter, a major hub of political speech, has been among the main targets of censorship. Many news stories have broken on Twitter in recent years and a significant portion of the nation’s political debate takes place on the platform, as it allows an efficient way for direct and public interaction between all on the platform, from the most prominent to the least. Twitter resisted some censorship requests, but there was little sign the company did so as a matter of principle. Rather, executives sometimes couldn’t find a policy they could use as a justification. Prior Twitter chief executive Jack Dorsey was under pressure from his lieutenants to expand the policies to allow more thorough censorship, the documents show.
Elon Musk felt like he 'was dying' after 2nd COVID booster shot, cousin in 'peak health' suffered myocarditis - Elon Musk took to Twitter late Friday evening to share his personal experience with the second COVID booster shot, explaining he ran into "major side effects."In a series of tweets, the Twitter CEO said he felt like he "was dying" and that a cousin of his in "peak health" suffered myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart which is listed as a possible side effect of some coronavirus vaccines. "I had major side effects from my second booster shot. Felt like I was dying for several days. Hopefully, no permanent damage, but I dunno," Musk said in a tweet.He added: "And my cousin, who is young & in peak health, had a serious case of myocarditis. Had to go to the hospital." In a third post, Musk explained it was not his choice to get the second booster but was a requirement to visit a Tesla location in Berlin, Germany."Was required to visit Tesla Giga Berlin. Not my choice," he said. In yet another post, Musk explained he had no issues with receiving the initial Johnson & Johnson vaccine or the first mRNA booster."I had OG C19 before vaccines came out and it was basically a mild cold. Then had J&J vaccine with no bad effects, except my arm hurt briefly," he tweeted. The Tesla founder added: "First mRNA booster was ok, but the second one crushed me."Musk's posts were in response to a Rasmussen Reports tweet that reported approximately 12 million people may have experienced "major side effects" after getting the vaccine.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cases of myocarditis are a "rare risk" for those who receive mRNA COVID-19 vaccines."These rare cases of myocarditis or pericarditis have occurred most frequently in adolescent and young adult males, ages 16 years and older, within 7 days after receiving the second dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna). There has not been a similar reporting pattern observed after receipt of the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine (Johnson & Johnson)," the CDC says on its website.
Twitter and Google Behaving Badly - Yves here. Tom Neuburger has a short post with Twitter Files updates, plus evidence that Google is obstructing searches that ought to lead to his site. In a bit of synchronicity, I stumbled upon another Google gimmick for messing with search results. I had seen a tidbit on Interfax that is relevant to a new John Helmer post, wanted to include it in an introduction, and so went to find it.This is what I got: I had not clicked on anything. If you have very good color vision, you might be able to detect that the second title is a tiny bit pinker than the others. That is the one I had looked at earlier. That behavior holds across all searches. I don’t know why Google has implemented a barely perceptible color difference. We have a very clear color difference for read v. unread links at Naked Capitalism. But that is not the striking part. Google has subjected me to a feature in beta telling me Interfax is Russian. I tried the same search with site:washingtonpost.com and got no such interference.This is what you see when you move the scroll bar down:Moreover, in the bottom field, immediately elow “Send feedback,” you see “Remove result”. So at a minimum, it looks as if Google is hoping you’ll remove sites it deems unsanitary from your search results. Now based on this surprise, my surmise is Google is doing this only to Russia sites. But I wonder how and when this started. I have sometimes used Google to search en.kremlin.ru, since its search function isn’t very good; Firefox remembered those searches and Google did not put up an interfering warning when I ran one of those old queries again just now. I would be very interested to hear from other readers who have gotten similar results. And yes, Google is terrible but Bing is pretty similar and I have not found Brave or DuckDuckGo to be much better. Qwant is also a disappointment. Yandex give much better first pass results but does not have date or date range filter, so most of the time when I try Yandex, I wind up back at one of the bad boys.
A Note to Subscribers - God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger - This week has seen a number of developments, including the release of four new Twitter Files, several of great significance.
- Twitter Files 13 — Twitter and Covid
Alex Berenson, January 9, 2023 - Twitter Files 14 — Russian Bots and #ReleasetheMemo Hashtag
Matt Taibbi, January 12, 2023 - Twitter Files 14a — Supplemental — More Adam Schiff Ban Requests,
and "Deamplification"
Matt Taibbi, January 13, 2023 - Twitter Files 15 — How the pharmaceutical industry lobbied social media to shape content around vaccine policy (Intercept version: “Covid-19 Drugmakers Pressured Twitter to Censor Activists Pushing for Generic Vaccine)
Lee Fang, January 16, 2023
(Additional brief comments here.)The final file, by Lee Fang, is especially troubling. It documents how Pfizer and BioNTech attempted to use Twitter to protect its profit from the activist campaign to get them to make their vaccines available free or at low cost to developing nations, especially in the Global South.From his Intercept write-up: The campaign they were concerned about was the launch of an international push to force the drug industry to share the intellectual property and patents associated with coronavirus vaccine development. Making the patents available, in turn, would allow countries across the world to swiftly manufacture generic vaccines and other low-cost therapeutics to deal with the ongoing pandemic. That’s evil in its purest form — choosing profits over people whose lives are at risk — with Big Pharma caught choosing its profits and consigning many brown-skinned others to death. Thanks to the Twitter Files, we now have proof of this, not just suspicions. And only thanks to the Twitter Files, I hasten to add. I have updated this file (“Twitter File Links, Aggregated”) with links to the above Twitter Files (along with a few comments), and will continue do so whenever a new file is released. It will always be up to date, so feel free to bookmark it.Finally, Google may be getting into the content-flagging act. As you know, I’ve been covering the Twitter Files pretty extensively. If you search on my name, “thomas neuburger”, and narrow the search to include only “Previous week”, you see this flag ahead of the results:Changing the filter to “Past month” removes the flag. Is this meaningful? I don’t know. But asking if I’m “trusted on this topic” is worrying.
Elizabeth Holmes bought one-way ticket to Mexico, prosecutors say - A new court filing by the U.S. government opposing Elizabeth Holmes’ motion for release pending appeal shows that Holmes bought a one-way ticket to Mexico set to leave weeks after her fraud conviction.Holmes, founder of the shuttered blood testing company Theranos, wasconvicted on Jan. 3, 2022, on four counts of wire fraud for defrauding investors out of millions of dollars. She was acquitted on four other charges and a mistrial was declared in three other charges.Holmes was sentenced last November to over 11 years in prison and has appealed that decision. In response to her motion for release, prosecutors said in their filing Thursday that she purchased an airline ticket to Mexico scheduled to leave shortly after being convicted last January with no scheduled return.Prosecutors said in their filing that "the government became aware on January 23, 2022" that Holmes had booked a flight to Mexico to depart on January 26, 2022, without a scheduled return trip which was only cancelled after the government raised the unauthorized flight with the defense. Holmes' partner Billy Evans had flown out on Jan. 26, 2022, and didn't return for six weeks.
Cryptoverse: Bitcoin is back with a bonk - Bitcoin is on the charge in 2023, dragging the crypto market off the floor and electrifying bonk, a new meme coin.The No.1 cryptocurrency has clocked a 26% gain in January, leaping 22% in the past week alone, breaking back above the $20,000 level and putting in on course for its best month since October 2021 - just before the Big Crypto Crash.Ether has also risen, by 29% this year, helping drive the value of the overall global cryptocurrency market above $1 trillion, according to CoinGecko."After a rough year last year for cryptos, we are seeing a form of mean reversion," said Jake Gordon, analyst at Bespoke Investment Group, referring to the theory of asset prices returning to long-term averages.Researchers said investor bets on a rosier macroeconomic picture were driving a jump in riskier assets across the board.Few crypto tokens have benefited more than bonk, which was launched at the end of December on the Solana blockchain and had rocketed 5,000% by early January. It has since fallen back, though remains up 910% since the start of the year.It is the latest entrant to the hyper-volatile world of meme coins, cryptocurrencies inspired by online memes and jokes, and is modeled after the same grinning Shiba Inu dog as dogecoin - which itself was catapulted to fame by Elon Musk tweets.Bitcoin may trade between $50,000-$100,000 in three years – Scaramucci --Bitcoin is likely to trade between $50,000 and $100,000 in the next two to three years as cryptocurrencies rebound from a nightmare year, US investment firm Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said, while admitting his view was “overly bullish”. He expected 2023 would be a “recovery year” for digital assets, with bitcoin gaining due to its adoption. Previously, Scaramucci announced investing in former FTX US president Brett Harrison’s new crypto start-up. SkyBridge has invested in bitcoin, ethereum , solana and altcoin algorand. According to its website, the SEC-registered investment adviser manages over $2.2 billion including more than $800 million in digital asset related investments. "Structured credit, mortgage-backed securities, credit card debt, auto loans -- that's an attractive space again," Scaramucci said. As of last September, his firm managed $2.2 billion, including $800 million in digital asset-related investments. In November 2022, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said cryptocurrency is the “only stable thing in this very dynamic environment”.
Dems debate influence of crypto money on key panel - Crypto-funded super PACs flooded the midterms with millions of dollars in campaign spending. Now some of their preferred candidates could play a crucial role in setting policy that will determine the future of the industry. Deliberations over membership on the House Financial Services Committee have spurred some private discussions over the influence of pro-crypto forces that invested so much money toward cultivating allies in Congress. That has both parties grappling with a 21st-century update to an age-old question: whether candidates who benefitted from significant sums of money from cryptocurrency groups can serve impartially on a panel that is poised to set the first substantive regulations on the industry. “I think that it’s a conflict of interest,” said Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), when asked generally about crypto-funded candidates joining that committee. “And I think that the influence of money, irrespective of where it comes from, is always going to be something that we need to worry about.” FTX CEO blames collapse on 'grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals' One freshman, Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.) who received more than $1 million from crypto-backed groups, already got a spot on the House Financial Services Committee. Meanwhile, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Democratic freshman who received significant campaign help from crypto interests, has launched a behind-the-scenes effort to get her House leadership to place her on it as well. Crypto groups boosted dozens of candidates from both parties during the 2022 primary season and many of them won in November, arriving in the halls of Congress just as the industry is at a crucial precipice. Everyone from President Joe Biden to House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) has pledged to regulate cryptocurrency, and lawmakers are poised to craft policies that will govern the crypto industry going forward, including settling foundational questions like which federal regulators will get the power to oversee crypto and whether it is classified as a security or a commodity.
Once burned, twice keen: Scaramucci isn’t giving up on crypto - — Dressed in a big black puffy coat and bright red boots, Anthony Scaramucci was shaking hands with several passersby as he walked the halls of the World Economic Forum’s main building. It was the day before the high-profile event kicked off and Mooch had work to do. Following a near collapse of the cryptocurrency market in recent months, Donald Trump’s infamous former communications director — now a crypto investor — is on a mission to convince the global elite that the crypto party isn’t over. Scaramucci is one of a slew of crypto junkies — executives and staffers from high-profile exchanges, intermediaries and tech companies — who are here in this Swiss ski resort town to try to convince investors and potential backers that, despite the nearly complete collapse of the industry this fall, everything is just fine. Scaramucci, a Wall Street veteran, is an institution in Davos: He holds court in hotel lobbies, will talk to anyone who stops him on the street, and hands out 100-point red wines at one of the week’s most sought-after parties. For several years, Scaramucci was also the most valuable thing of all to the nervous global elite — a Trump translator. This year, he came to the Swiss Alps to save his own bacon. Sam Bankman-Fried, the now-indicted former head of FTX, invested nearly $45 million in Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital before the exchange collapsed and Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas. That represented 30 percent of SkyBridge’s business. Scaramucci isn’t giving up on crypto, and he’s been making the case at Davos to lawmakers and investors that the market is still strong, despite a slew of bankruptcies and job cuts, plus a cratering of market value by two-thirds since the highs of fall 2021. “There are skeptics. But what are they not trusting? Ultimately, they’re not trusting people,” Scaramucci said. “If you get somebody like Sam — who I was close friends with — that’s a betrayal of trust and that’s a friendship betrayal. Good fraud can fool people. [But] the technology is this wonderful. You can trust that I’m sending you money to your wallet over the blockchain, which is sort of this impregnable system.” That’s a common refrain here among crypto evangelists on the Davos Promenade: Fraudsters are the problem, not the underlying technology, or the lack of regulation around it.
FTX reports $415 mln in hacked crypto, Bankman-Fried says FTX US is solvent (Reuters) - Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX said in a report to creditors on Tuesday that about $415 million in cryptocurrency had been stolen in hacks. FTX has said it had recovered over $5 billion in crypto, cash and liquid securities, but that significant shortfalls remained at both its international and U.S. crypto exchanges. FTX attributed some of the shortfall to hacks, saying that $323 million in crypto had been hacked from FTX's international exchange and $90 million had been hacked from its U.S. exchange since it filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11. Bankman-Fried, who has been accused of stealing billions of dollars from FTX customers to pay debts incurred by his crypto-focused hedge fund, Alameda Research, pushed back against FTX's calculations late Tuesday, saying that the company's lawyers at Sullivan & Cromwell had presented an "extremely misleading" picture of the company's finances. Bankman-Fried said FTX has more than enough money to repay U.S. customers, whom he says are owed between $181 million and $497 million based on his "best guess." Bankman-Fried has not had access to FTX records since stepping down as CEO in November. A spokesperson for Sullivan and Cromwell declined to comment. Attorneys at the firm said in a recent court filing that they have rebuffed Bankman-Fried's efforts to stay involved in the company's bankruptcy proceedings.
Sam Bankman-Fried's secret 'backdoor' discovered, FTX lawyer says - Sam Bankman-Fried instructed his FTX cofounder Gary Wang to create a "secret" backdoor to enable his trading firm Alameda to borrow $65 billion of clients' money from the exchange without their permission, the Delaware bankruptcy court was told Wednesday. Wang was told to create a "backdoor, a secret way for Alameda to borrow from customers on the exchange without permission," said FTX lawyer Andrew Dietderich."Mr. Wang created this back door by inserting a single number into millions of lines of code for the exchange, creating a line of credit from FTX to Alameda, to which customers did not consent," he added. "And we know the size of that line of credit. It was $65 billion."The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) made similar allegations when it brought charges against Wang in December. But the value of that line of credit hasn't been discussed before now. The CFTC then described it as "virtually unlimited."And in November, Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying that Bankman-Fried had moved $10 billion between the two companies, with a further $2 billion still unaccounted for. Dietderich told the court that with the $65 billion back door, Alameda "bought planes, houses, threw parties, made political donations." Bankman-Fried is the second-highest donor to Democratic causes, but says he donated just as much to Republicans using "dark" money. $256.3 million of Bahamian real estate was also registered in FTX's name – including 15 condos in the same building. Other court filings say FTX spent $6.9 million on "meals and entertainment" in just nine months.
A Sam Bankman-Fried Company Loaned or Invested More than $1 Billion in Clients of its Law Firm, Sullivan & Cromwell – by Pam Martens and Russ Martens - In a January 12 Substack column penned by Sam Bankman-Fried, the indicted co-founder and former CEO of collapsed crypto exchange, FTX, he writes that “When I would visit NYC, I would sometimes work out of S&C’s office.” S&C is shorthand for the 144-year old Big Law firm, Sullivan & Cromwell, which has come under withering media attention for attempting to steamroll its way into the position of lead counsel in the FTX bankruptcy proceedings – including investigating its own conduct as outside counsel to Sam Bankman-Fried and his byzantine collection of crypto companies. We have been covering the mushrooming conflicts of interest held by Sullivan & Cromwell since two days after FTX (and its herd of more than 100 related companies) filed their Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition on November 11. Today, we will shine an even brighter light on those conflicts.The 8-count criminal indictment against Sam Bankman-Fried by the U.S. Department of Justice makes it clear that pretty much everything Sam Bankman-Fried did involving electronic business communications from 2019 to November 2022 was wire fraud deployed to misappropriate customer deposits and use “those deposits to pay expenses and debts of Alameda Research, Bankman-Fried’s proprietary crypto hedge fund, and to make investments” in other companies, most of which were crypto related. If Bankman-Fried was on the premises of Sullivan & Cromwell during that span of time, which appears highly likely since he came to New York for meetings and speaking engagements, there is also the strong likelihood that he engaged in the alleged wire fraud from their premises. Just being on the premises of Sullivan & Cromwell and using their phones or wi-fi without their knowledge to commit wire fraud might not be a fatal conflict against the law firm, were it not for the fact that Wall Street On Parade has discovered that an inordinate amount of Sullivan & Cromwell’s other current clients appears to have received more than $1 billion of FTX’s misappropriated customer funds.On December 21, Sullivan & Cromwell filed a large document with the FTX bankruptcy court which included (scroll down) a Declaration by S&C partner Andrew Dietderich. Included in that Declaration was a list of current and former S&C clients who had relationships with FTX and its related companies. Dietderich provided no specificity on those relationships other than a one-word or two-word description, such as “vendor,” “contract counterparty,” “investments,” “competitor,” etc. We cross-checked those S&C current clients which were designated by the law firm as “contract counterparty” or “investments” with public records and an internal FTX document published by the Financial Times showing investments made by Sam Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research, or its affiliated units. We discovered seven clients of Sullivan & Cromwell had received loans or investment funds. Sullivan & Cromwell told the bankruptcy court in a filing that it “is not aware of any conflict between its representation of the Debtors and its representations of its Current Clients or Former Clients that would cause S&C not to be a ‘disinterested person.’ ” But if the funds involved were looted from FTX customers, the funds may have to be clawed back and S&C is hardly in a position to be trusted demanding claw backs from its own customers. This is what we found: (All current client listings are as of December 21, 2022, according to Sullivan & Cromwell.)
Car drove into barricade outside Bankman-Fried's home, lawyers say (Reuters) - A car drove into a metal barricade outside Sam Bankman-Fried's home in California, his lawyers said on Thursday, in a recent incident they said underscores the security risks faced by the FTX founder and those ensuring his return to court.In a filing in Manhattan federal court, lawyers for the 30-year-old onetime billionaire said three men got out of the car and told a security officer guarding the Palo Alto home, "You won't be able to keep us out." The men, who have not been identified, then got back in the car and drove away.Bankman-Fried, arrested last month on fraud and conspiracy charges related to the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange, is under house arrest at his parents' home until his Oct. 2 trial. Prosecutors say he stole billions of dollars of FTX customer funds to plug losses at his hedge fund.He has pleaded not guilty. The lawyers, Mark Cohen and Christian Everdell, did not specify when the incident took place, describing it only as recent. The lawyers brought up the incident in response to a push by major media outlets, including Reuters, to make public the names of two people who helped guarantee Bankman-Fried's bond alongside his parents, both Stanford Law School professors who put up their house as collateral for the $250 million bond. The news organizations argued last week that the right of the public to know the two sureties' identities outweighed their privacy and safety rights. Bankman-Fried's lawyers said the media groups "assign far too much weight to the presumption of access" and ignored the safety of the guarantors.
FTX debacle shows risks in current CFTC rulebook, commissioner says -The implosion of the digital-asset exchange FTX shows that U.S. platforms should face heightened scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before being able to list crypto assets, according to one top official at the regulator. CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero said risks associated with virtual currencies mean that a fast-track process exchanges typically use to list futures isn't sufficient for the asset class. Current rules let exchanges registered with the regulator "self-certify" their products are safe and list them, unless the agency moves to block the plans within 24 hours. The spectacular blowup of FTX last November has increased pressure on American regulators and lawmakers to step up oversight of the industry. Some proposals that were introduced last year in Congress would give the CFTC an increased role in overseeing trading platforms. "I urge Congress to avoid permitting newly regulated crypto exchanges to self-certify products for listing, under the current process that limits CFTC oversight," Goldsmith Romero said this week in remarks prepared for an event hosted by the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and Carey Law School. "It is critical to institute guardrails against regulatory arbitrage, and that includes prohibiting the use of the self-certification process," she said. Although FTX's problems didn't emanate from an entity that was overseen directly by the CFTC, Goldsmith Romero said the collapse is a wake-up call. Crypto companies could use the the agency's regulatory framework as an end-run around registering tokens with the Securities and Exchange Commission, she said. "The CFTC would benefit from greater authority to access certain information on unregulated affiliates of regulated exchanges, with appropriate conditions," said Goldsmith Romero, former inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. Goldsmith Romero described FTX's financial entanglements with a constellation of little-known affiliates as a problem the CFTC needs more authority to address. She said even if Congress fails to act, the industry should do more to regulate itself and root out bad actors. "If the digital-asset industry wants to regain any amount of public trust, it has some work to do," she said.
Crypto lender Genesis preparing to file for bankruptcy - Bloomberg News (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency lender Genesis Global Capital is planning to file for bankruptcy as soon as this week, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people with knowledge of the situation. A bankruptcy filing has been expected for weeks, after the company froze customer redemptions on Nov. 16 following the downfall of major cryptocurrency exchange FTX. The collapse of FTX in November has claimed several victims including crypto lender BlockFi and Core Scientific Inc, one of the biggest publicly traded crypto mining companies in the United States, both of which filed for bankruptcy protection in the following months. Genesis, its parent Digital Currency Group and creditors have exchanged several proposals, but have so far failed to come to an agreement, the Bloomberg report said, adding that Kirkland & Ellis and Proskauer Rose have been advising groups of creditors. Genesis did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Genesis is also locked in a dispute with Gemini, founded by the identical twin crypto pioneers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. Gemini offered a crypto lending product called Earn in partnership with Genesis, and now says Genesis owes it $900 million in connection with that product. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week said it had charged Genesis and Gemini with illegally selling securities to hundreds of thousands of investors through their crypto lending program.
Digital Currency Group halts dividend payment to save cash - Digital Currency Group, the struggling crypto empire whose Genesis Global Capital lending unit is trying to stave off bankruptcy, said it's suspending quarterly dividends to preserve cash. The move comes as the group focuses on "strengthening our balance sheet by reducing operating expenses and preserving liquidity," according to a Jan. 17 letter to shareholders seen by Bloomberg News. Barry Silbert's DCG is a linchpin of the crypto industry but has been battered by a prolonged rout in digital assets and the fallout from the collapse of the FTX exchange. Genesis stopped reimbursements in November and has warned that it may file for bankruptcy if it can't raise needed funds. Silbert is locked in an escalating battle with Gemini crypto exchange co-founder Cameron Winklevoss, whose customers have lost access to $900 million of funds that were placed with Genesis. Creditors including Gemini have been working behind the scenes to try to find a solution to Genesis's woes. The digital-asset rout has forced a slew of companies into bankruptcy or deep retrenchments. DCG cut 10% of its staff in a restructuring last year. The group's sprawling business spans the digital-asset fund manager Grayscale Investments LLC. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the world's largest crypto fund, has been trading at a steep discount to the amount of cryptocurrency it holds, leading vexed shareholders to call for changes. Meanwhile, U.S. authorities are digging into the internal financial dealings of DCG, according to people familiar with the matter. Silbert has sought to allay concerns, saying in a letter this month that he has "no doubt that DCG will emerge from this year a stronger company than ever before." His net worth, once estimated at $3 billion, is now below $1 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. A spokesperson for DCG didn't reply to a request for comment.
Crypto firm Nexo Capital agrees to pay $45 mln to settle U.S. SEC, state charges(Reuters) - Nexo Capital Inc has agreed to pay $45 million in penalties to settle charges from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and state regulators that the crypto firm failed to register its crypto asset lending product, the SEC said on Thursday. Nexo has agreed to pay a $22.5 million penalty to the SEC and another $22.5 million in fines to state regulators in relation to its Earn Interest Product to U.S. investors, the SEC said in a statement. Nexo began to offer its lending product around June 2020, allowing U.S. investors to give their crypto assets to the company in exchange for a promise of interest, the SEC said. The company ceased offering the product to new investors after the SEC announced similar charges against another company in February 2022. Nexo, which did not admit or deny the SEC's findings, said it was "content" with the resolution. Its co-founder Kosta Kantchev added: "We are confident that a clearer regulatory landscape will emerge soon, and companies like Nexo will be able to offer value-creating products in the United States in a compliant manner."
Crypto lender Nexo pays $45 million in fines to SEC, states -- The digital-asset firm Nexo Capital will pay $45 million in penalties to U.S. federal and state regulators over allegations that it broke securities rules by offering a crypto lending product.The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday said that Nexo's Earn Interest Product amounted to a security that should have been registered with the agency. It's the latest in a series of cases that Wall Street's main regulator has brought over similar products."We are not concerned with the labels put on offerings, but on their economic realities. And part of that reality is that crypto assets are not exempt from the federal securities laws," Gurbir Grewal, the SEC enforcement director, said in a statement.Nexo will pay $22.5 million to the SEC, and $22.5 million to settle allegations from state regulators, the SEC said. Nexo did not admit or deny the agency's findings in the settlement. In September, regulators from eight U.S. states — California, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Vermont and Washington — said Nexo was offering interest-earning accounts without registering the investment products as securities.In December, Nexo said it was phasing out its products and services in the U.S. market after cease-and-desist orders from multiple states over its interest-earning products.In a statement, Nexo called the settlement a "final landmark resolution" with the SEC, the North American Securities Administrators Association and several other state authorities. "We are content with this unified resolution which unequivocally puts an end to all speculations around Nexo's relations to the United States," added Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of Nexo, said in a statement.After BlockFi agreed last February to settle similar allegations with the SEC and states for a combined $100 million, Nexo said it would stop accepting new US clients for its lending products and pause interest payments on new deposits from existing American users.
FTX Bombshell: Former FTX Lawyer, Daniel Friedberg, Alleges Fraud by Sullivan & Cromwell in Court Filing Today - by Pam and Russ Martens: January 19, 2023 ~Daniel Friedberg, a former attorney at the collapsed crypto exchange, FTX, has filed a heart-stopping declarationtoday with the U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware. He is effectively accusing one of the oldest law firms in America, Sullivan & Cromwell (S&C), of engaging in a fraudulent scheme in the FTX bankruptcy case. Friedberg further alleges that this fraudulent conspiracy was helped from the inside of FTX by S&C’s former law partner, Ryne Miller. According to new management at FTX, at least $8 billion of customer funds are missing, with the bulk of the money illegally diverted for use by Alameda Research, a hedge fund owned by the former co-founder and CEO of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, who has pleaded not-guilty to 8 criminal felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. Two of his top lieutenants, Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang, have pleaded guilty and are cooperating with prosecutors.A hearing is scheduled at the bankruptcy court tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. to take testimony on Sullivan & Cromwell’s petition to become the lead counsel in the case. . Four sitting U.S. Senators were so alarmed about Sullivan & Cromwell’s conflicts that they took the unusual step of filing an objection with the Court.But none of the prior objections can hold a candle to the breathtaking charges being made by Friedberg. In one section of Friedberg’s declaration involving former S&C law partner, Ryne Miller, Friedberg writes as follow: “In 2021, the then President of FTX.US made the decision to hire Ryne Miller (‘Mr. Miller’) as general counsel of FTX.US and counsel for Alameda, and FTX International. “After being hired, Mr. Miller came to me and asked if he could engage Sullivan & Cromwell, LLP (‘S&C’) as counsel for the Debtors. I responded that as general counsel, it was his role to generally approve outside counsel for FTX.US. “Mr. Miller informed me that it was very important for him personally to channel a lot of business to S&C as he wanted to return there as a partner after his stint at the Debtors. This bothered me very much and I told him that his job was to only hire the best outside counsel for the job, and that his allegiance was now to the Debtors and not S&C. This continued to be a problem throughout his work at the Debtors as further described below. […] Later in the filing, Friedberg makes even bolder allegations, writing:“On November 7, 2023, certain FTX personnel including Sam informed certain executives in the Bahamas of the existence of an $8 billion customer deficit with respect to FTX International. “The FTX International general counsel contacted me by zoom to inform me of this shocking development. “Prior to this disclosure, I had no idea of any customer deficit. … “I was in the New York office of FTX.US at the time and went to Ryne Miller to inform him of the development. Mr. Miller was already aware of the development and said that he was busy contacting ‘all the billionaires that he knew’ to provide emergency financing to cover the customer deficit. “I explained to Mr. Miller that he had to review his ethical obligations before continuing to represent FTX.US under such circumstances, and soliciting financing under the circumstances might conflict with his ethical duties. He dismissed my concerns and remained optimistic about helping Sam get future financing.“I reviewed my ethical obligations that evening and felt that there was substantial risk that I would be used to further additional fraud in connection with the additional investment efforts if I stayed on. “I therefore tendered my resignation the following day.“A day or two later, I had a final call with Ryne Miller as I was concerned about the direction of the companies. This was after CZ of Binance [a crypto exchange competitor] had announced that he was abandoning the purchase of the Debtors and it looked like bankruptcy was the only answer for the FTX International Group and the Alameda Group. “Mr. Miller told me that the bankruptcy filings of FTX International Group, the Alameda Group, and the FTX.US Group had to be in the United States because otherwise S&C couldn’t do the job.“I then told Mr. Miller that FTX.US should not file bankruptcy at all until it was certain that there were insufficient assets at FTX.US. Indeed, the tech team checked the wallets and had told the FTX International general counsel at the time of the disclosure of the customer deficit that FTX.US was not affected. I told Mr. Miller that the FTX.US crypto exchange needed to be retained if at all possible and sold as a going concern to allow the preferred shareholders to be paid back. Mr. Miller stated that he needed to include FTX.US as part of the bankruptcy because FTX.US had the cash to pay S&C its retainer. Without this retainer from FTX.US, S&C wouldn’t file. I told him that it wasn’t proper for FTX.US to pay for the expenses of the bankruptcy of FTX International Group or the Alameda Group.“Mr. Miller informed me that S&C was installing ‘S&C’s guy’ to run all the companies. [That refers to John J. Ray III who has been put in the post of CEO of the FTX group of companies and has appointed a new Board of Directors.] I told Mr. Miller that S&C was not the proper law firm to select because of the claims and conflicts, as well as the exorbitant costs of the firm. Mr. Miller told me that there was over $200 million cash in LedgerX and that he was going to send these funds to S&C, and that bankruptcy legal costs were therefore not a problem.“I was horrified at this response and started to try to remind him of his ethical obligations and that he was stealing further funds from customers, but he hung up the phone on me and terminated the call….”If that is not enough to take one’s breath away, Friedberg goes on to provide a chart of the legal causes of action that could be leveled against the various separate business entities of FTX to demonstrate why it was improper for the new CEO and Sullivan & Cromwell to lump all of these companies together as one pot of money. Friedberg writes:
Genesis, a Crypto Lending Firm, Files for Bankruptcy - The cryptocurrency lender Genesis Global Holdco filed for bankruptcy late on Thursday, the latest crypto company to do so after the collapse of FTX, the exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried.A year ago, Genesis and a group of other large lending firms drew millions of customers with the promise that they could deposit their crypto holdings and earn sky-high returns. But Genesis’ bankruptcy filing makes it the fourth major crypto lender to fail since last spring, when a downturn in the digital asset market sent prices plunging. Other major lenders that have gone out of business include Celsius Network and Voyager Digital, whose customers lost billions of dollars in deposits.Genesis survived for longer, but suffered in the fallout from FTX’s implosion. In November, Genesis said it was freezing withdrawals, citing “market turmoil” caused by the bankruptcy of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s business.The filing in bankruptcy court in the Southern District of New York covered three entities: Genesis Global Holdco and two of its subsidiaries, Genesis Global Capital and Genesis Asia Pacific.Genesis is a subsidiary of the Digital Currency Group, the crypto conglomerate founded by Barry Silbert in 2015. Mr. Silbert’s management and the troubles at Genesis have recently brought him into conflict with two other prominent crypto executives, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who run the exchange Gemini.Last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission chargedGenesis with offering unregistered securities in a partnership with Gemini. Gary Gensler, the S.E.C. chair, said at the time that Genesis and Gemini had bypassed “disclosure requirements designed to protect investors.”The Winklevosses have publicly accused Genesis’ parent company, DCG, of stalling to keep funds that belong to its customers. They have also claimed that DCG and Genesis misrepresented financial information and mischaracterized the value of company assets to give the impression that Genesis was in better health than it was.The S.E.C.’s charges against Genesis and Gemini were part of a broader crackdown on crypto lenders. In February, the agency announced $100 million in penalties on BlockFi, a crypto lender. BlockFi filed for bankruptcy in November, making it one of the first big victims of FTX’s collapse. Earlier on Thursday, the S.E.C. announced a $45 million settlementwith another crypto lending firm, Nexo, for violating securities law.
Genesis Claims $5.1B in Liabilities in First-Day Bankruptcy Filing - Crypto lending firm Genesis held $5.1 billion in liabilities in the weeks following its freeze on withdrawals last November, according to bankruptcy court documents signed by interim CEO Derar Islim.In his first-day motion in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, Islim provided a breakdown of Genesis’ financial state heading into its restructuring. Genesis became the latest crypto firm caught up in the immediate fallout of FTX’s implosion, with three of its entities – Genesis HoldCo, Genesis Global Capital LLC and Genesis Asia Pacific PTE. LTD – filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Thursday.Those entities were perhaps less affected by direct losses to FTX and sister company Alameda than by the “run on the bank” that Islim said their collapse sparked. Customers demanded Genesis repay $827 million in loans, forcing its lending units to freeze withdrawals.“At the same time, Holdco’s corporate parent, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and its various subsidiaries, including DCG International Investments Ltd., were also impacted by the market turmoil and did not have the liquidity to pay back the Company on certain loans, adding pressure to the Debtors’ balance sheets,” Islim said. (DCG is also the parent of CoinDesk.)At least part of the liquidity crunch began months earlier thanks to Genesis’ $1.2 billion loss to crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC), which collapsed in the summer of 2022. That loss came out of the Genesis Asia Pacific unit (that also filed for bankruptcy), which managed Genesis’ lending relationship with 3AC. At the time of 3AC going under, Genesis had $2.4 billion in outstanding loans to the fund, of which Genesis was able to recover just half, according to the filing.DCG last year assumed much of that exposure, swapping a 10-year promissory note in exchange for Genesis’ $1.2 billion in claims against 3AC. That note is now at the center of DCG’s public spat with crypto exchange Gemini over the exchange’s yield product Earn, with Gemini being Genesis’ largest creditor at more than $700 million.
Gemini's Cameron Winklevoss Threatens Legal Action Against DCG CEO After Genesis Bankruptcy Filing -- Gemini CEO Cameron Winklevoss threatened to sue Digital Currency Group CEO Barry Silbert and DCG over the repayment of a $900 million loan in a tweet published just minutes after Genesis filed for Chapter 11 late Thursday night in New York. The tweet comes after Winklevoss waged a Twitter war against DCG to recover the loan amid his crypto exchange’s own struggles.6/ Unless Barry and DCG come to their senses and make a fair offer to creditors, we will be filing a lawsuit against Barry and DCG imminently.— Cameron Winklevoss (@cameron) January 20, 2023Winklevoss called the lender’s bankruptcy a “crucial step” toward recovering Gemini users’ assets. But he still intends to sue DCG, Silbert and Genesis unless Silbert makes a "fair offer" to Gemini's creditors.“We have been preparing to take direct legal action against Barry, DCG and others who share responsibility for the fraud that has caused harm to the 340,000+ Earn users and others duped by Genesis and its accomplices,” wrote Winklevoss.The latest tweets follow a weeks-long public spat between Winklevoss and Silbert over the repayment of a $900 million loan Gemini made to Genesis. Winklevoss has also called for Silbert’s ouster from DCG, alleging that Silbert had mixed funds among the numerous companies he manages.However, in its voluntary petition for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the Southern District of New York court, Genesis Global Capital disputed some of Gemini's claims. Genesis pointed out the $900 million loan is the net proceed from the foreclosure of certain assets, and disputes whether the foreclosure satisfied applicable law.In his latest tweets, Winklevoss also reiterated his previous allegations that Silbert failed to cooperate with Gemini to draft a plan for the loan’s repayment.DCG is also the parent company of CoinDesk. “While we have been working around the clock to negotiate an acceptable solution, @BarrySilbert and @DCGco – the parent company of Genesis – continue to refuse to offer creditors a fair deal,” wrote Winklevoss.
Ex-Genesis execs claimed they raised millions for crypto hedge fund just as former company neared bankruptcy - Just weeks before crypto lender Genesis filed for bankruptcy, three former employees of the company claimed they had secured millions of dollars for a new crypto hedge fund, according to correspondence viewed by CNBC. Matt Ballensweig, who left Genesis in September after more than five years at the firm, sent a message to a prospective investor in mid-December, regarding a fund he was starting called Hunting Hill Digital. Ballensweig said he had already secured $2.5 million from Bessemer Venture Partners at a $30 million post-money valuation, and wrote in the message that he and his partners were in the process of raising another $5 million. Bessemer told CNBC in an email that they are not an investor in Hunting Hill Digital. The fund's "flagship product" would go live in the first quarter of 2023, the message said. Other partners in the fund would include Martin Garcia, who spent more than six years at Genesis, and Reed Werbitt, Genesis' former head of trading, the message said. Werbitt, Garcia, and Ballensweig all left Genesis around the same time in 2022. Genesis, which is owned by Barry Silbert's Digital Currency Group, filed for bankruptcy protection on Thursday, the latest casualty in the industry contagion caused by the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in November. In its bankruptcy filing, Genesis listed over 100,000 creditors, with aggregate liabilities ranging from $1.2 billion to $11 billion dollars. Ballensweig was named in legal filings surrounding the implosion of Genesis' lending book. Gemini, a crypto exchange and major Genesis client, accused Ballensweig of falsely reassuring Gemini in July that Genesis was financially stable. Gemini claimed that Ballensweig told its representatives that Genesis had "capital to operate... for the long term," according to court filings. Ballensweig did not respond to a request for comment on the allegations made against him by Gemini or on his recent capital raise. Ballensweig spent his final nine months at Genesis as managing director and co-head of trading and lending. The ex-Genesis employees teamed up with Adam Guren from hedge fund Hunting Hill, Ballensweig said. Hunting Hill is a $718 million hedge fund, which launched in 2010 and moved into digital asset investing in 2020 with a crypto opportunities fund. Hunting Hill did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Three Arrows has returned to save crypto. Here’s its pitch deck - GTX, a whole letter better than FTX.Like the gargantuan corpse of a slain god, FTX is providing plenty of meal opportunities.Here’s The Block:Su Zhu and Kyle Davies, the founders of collapsed crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC), are hoping to raise $25 million to start a new crypto exchange called GTX, according to two separate pitch decks obtained by The Block.News of the fundraise comes two months after exchange giant FTX imploded, leaving more than a million creditors out of pocket. The new exchange takes advantage of the situation offering depositors the ability to transfer their FTX claims to GTX and receive immediate credit in a token called USDG, the pitch deck said.The exchange’s name is even a spin on “FTX,” with one of the GTX pitch decks opening with the line “because G comes after F.” Once you’ve finished laughing, you might consider crying. In case you’ve already repressed the events of last year, Singapore-based crypto “hedge fund” Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapsed after being blown up by margin calls — with several other crypto players caught in the aftershocks.Well, don’t despair: 3AC’s architects are back, bringing with them Mark Lamb and Sudhu Arumugam, the co-founders of CoinFLEX — which filed for restructuring last year after June’s crypto tumult forced a suspension of withdrawals.If that pedigree hasn’t already got you champing at the bit, we have one of their pitch decks (h/t Kadhim Shubber), which we’re sharing for your ‘enjoyment’.You can download the full PDF here, or enjoy our choice of highlights.The pitch starts in earnest with some primo dataviz. We think this is supposed to be like a snowball, but can’t help be reminded of the iconic James Bond gunbarrel intro. Prospective investors will presumably be hoping this ends with less red on the screen.
Davos: $1.4 trillion wipeout hits crypto industry at WEF — Over the past few years at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the number of cryptocurrency industry attendees has boomed.But after a near $1.4 trillion wipeout in 2022, the crypto industry is being a bit more reserved with how it splashes the cash and several companies spotted last year are not in attendance. 2022 was marked by failed crypto projects, liquidity issues and bankruptcies, topped off by the collapse of major exchange FTX.When the World Economic Forum was held last May, bitcoin was hovering around $30,000, after having already fallen more than 50% from its all-time high hit in November 2021. More pain followed with bitcoin dipping as low as $15,480.The Promenade is the main street in Davos where companies and governments take over shops and cafes for the week. Last year, crypto firms from all walks of life took over the place. But since the market slide, there are far fewer crypto firms with flashy store fronts at Davos.One shop selling non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, has disappeared. Prices of NFTs, which are digital collectibles, also plunged last year. What's left are companies that survived the bear market and that are looking to expand their businesses. "It's very clear that the speculation period is drawing to a close and every company that you see featured … is really focused on real-world use cases," said Teana Baker-Taylor, vice-president of policy and regulatory strategy at Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin.Casper Labs, a company that has built a blockchain designed to be used by businesses, is running a space on the Promenade called the Blockchain Lab. Casper Labs was also present last year in Davos.Cliff Sarkin, chief of strategic relations at Casper Labs, said he's "cautiously optimistic" that the crypto market has bottomed."So we're over a year into the bear market, so I think the shock of that is settled in and for those of us that have been in the space for years … we feel like this is the time to build," Sarkin told CNBC.He added that the crypto firms that have remained at Davos are "substantiative projects" and "the real deals" versus things like NFTs.
DOJ announces charges against Russian cryptocurrency founder - press conference video
Justice Department, Treasury bust crypto exchange Bitzlato — The Justice Department and other federal agencies announced that it had disrupted a notorious cryptocurrency exchange on money laundering charges Wednesday afternoon. Federal agents arrested Russian national Anatoly Legkodymov Tuesday night in Miami on charges that his Hong Kong-registered cryptocurrency exchange Bitzlato Ltd "permitted transfer of illicit funds, and [failed] to comply with U.S. anti-money laundering requirements" according to a written release by U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York after the arrest. Bitzlato became attractive to criminals because of the minimal identifying information it required from users, DOJ officials said. Its largest trading counterparty, Hydra Market — an anonymous online marketplace for narcotics and other illicit activity — accumulated over $700 million in transactions with the exchange. At a press conference announcing the arrest, prosecutors said that Bizlato took more than $15 million in ransomware proceeds and said that Legkodymov even admitted that users of his service were "known to be crooks." Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo said at the conference that nearly 50% of all known Bitzlato transactions involved Russian illicit finance or otherwise risky sources. "Bitzlato is particularly active in facilitating illicit activity, but it is ultimately part of a larger ecosystem of cybercriminals that are allowed to operate with impunity in Russia," Adeyamo said. Prosecutors believe Bitzlato exploited an underworld that Congress has been eager to shut down as part of its ongoing sanctions against Russia. The Combating Russian Money Laundering Act, which was included as part of last year's defense spending bill gave Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or Fincen, expanded authority to go after Russian money laundering, Adeyemo said. "FinCEN is officially identifying Bitzlato as a 'primary money laundering concern' in connection with Russian illicit finance," Adeyemo said. "At a time when Russia is waging a brutal and unjust war in Ukraine, and as it seeks to circumvent sanctions and governance controls to fill its coffers and sustain its violence, we have no tolerance for criminal enterprises enriching Russia's malicious interests."
T-Mobile says hacker stole data on 37 million customers -- T-Mobile said a hacker stole data on about 37 million customers after first gaining access to a company system in November, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) report filed on Thursday. The phone carrier said it first identified the “bad actor” on Jan. 5 and was able to trace and stop their activity within a day. “Our investigation is still ongoing, but the malicious activity appears to be fully contained at this time, and there is currently no evidence that the bad actor was able to breach or compromise our systems or our network,” T-Mobile said in the SEC filing. The hacker breached a single application programming interface on about Nov. 25 that contained data on customer names, billing addresses, emails, phone numbers, dates of birth, T-Mobile account numbers and plan information. However, T-Mobile noted that many of the 37 million accounts affected did not include this entire range of data. Payment information, social security or tax ID numbers, driver’s license or other government ID numbers, and passwords and PINs were not impacted by the data breach, according to T-Mobile.
Wall Street investment banking slammed, as execs hope for more confidence ahead - (Reuters) - Wall Street banks showed deep falls in their investment banking businesses in the fourth quarter, prompting thousands of job cuts, but executives are looking for signs that corporate CEOs are regaining confidence in doing deals again. Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) reported a plunge in fourth quarter profits on Tuesday, as Wall Street dealmakers handling mergers, acquisitions and initial public offerings faced a sharp drop in their businesses in 2022. Rising interest rates roiled markets last year and global investment banking revenue sank more than 50% from a year-earlier quarter, according to data from analytics firm Dealogic. Banks are looking for a peak in the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hiking for confidence to return in boardrooms, along with a reduction in sharp swings in market prices. "I am highly confident that when the Fed pauses (rate hikes), deal activity and underwriting activity will go up," said Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman on the bank's earnings call. Morgan Stanley CFO Sharon Yeshaya said she was anticipating the pipeline of deals would be more active when there is a "policy pivot of peaking inflation, something that allows the CEOs that are actually having those conversations in boardrooms to have more confidence."
DeSantis prohibits Florida state-run fund managers from considering ESG factors - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) moved to prohibit state-run fund managers from taking environmental, social or governance (ESG) factors into consideration when making investments. “Corporations across America continue to inject an ideological agenda through our economy rather than through the ballot box. Today’s actions reinforce that ESG considerations will not be tolerated here in Florida, and I look forward to extending these protections during this legislative session,” DeSantis said in a release. ESG investing considers nonfinancial environmental and social factors, as well as traditional financial metrics, when looking at an investment’s risk and growth potential. The governor’s office announced Tuesday that DeSantis and trustees of the State Board of Administration (SBA) had approved measures to further block ESG factors and mandate “that all investment decisions focus solely on maximizing the highest rate of return.” DeSantis is among a number of Republicans who see the investing strategy as liberal policies encroaching on the free market and financial decisions that should be based strictly on the money. The best place to hide during a nuclear blast Hillicon Valley — What to know about the future of auto tech The GOP opponents of ESG have cited particular concern about considering ethics when making calls on the fossil fuel industry, which is both a key money-making sector and a main driver of climate change. “We need asset managers to be laser focused on returns and nothing more. Florida’s not going to subsidize the actions of a bunch of Leftist ideologues who hate America; we’re not going to let a bunch of rich people in Manhattan or Europe try to circumvent our democracy,” said Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis.
Davos 2023: BlackRock U.S. inflows dwarf $4 bln lost in ESG backlash -CEO - (Reuters) – BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, lost around $4 billion in assets under management as a result of a political backlash against environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing in the United States, its chief executive said. Republican-run Florida, Louisiana and Missouri have all said they plan to pull investment mandates from the company, citing concerns including that BlackRock's ESG efforts could impact investor returns. However, Larry Fink, speaking at a Bloomberg News event in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday, said the asset management group took in $230 billion over the course of 2022 from U.S. clients. Despite winning much more money than it lost, Fink said he was taking the issue "very seriously" and was trying to "address the misconceptions". "It's hard, because it's not business... they're doing it in a personal way. For the first time in my professional career, attacks are now personal. They're trying to demonise issues." Some of those criticising the company have pointed to its efforts to encourage companies to transition to a low-carbon economy in the fight against climate change as an attack on the fossil fuel industry. Fink, though, said BlackRock was one of the biggest investors in the sector in the world. He also pointed to the global shift towards cutting climate-damaging carbon emissions, particularly in Europe, as a key driver of new business.
Citi, BofA lead Wall Street banks funding fossil-fuel expansion - Citigroup and Bank of America have done more to support the expansion of fossil-fuel companies than any other lenders claiming to target net-zero financed emissions, according to a new analysis comparing industry pledges to action. The Wall Street firms, which joined the Net Zero Banking Alliance when it was founded in April 2021, have since contributed at least $53 billion in combined lending and underwriting to oil, gas and coal firms whose operations are still growing, according to a study by Reclaim Finance. Citi was responsible for $31 billion of that, the French nonprofit said. The findings are part of a wider analysis of finance industry actions since the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, of which NZBA is a subgroup, was created almost two years ago. Since then, banks have provided at least $269 billion in aggregate financing to fossil-fuel companies that are still expanding their operations, Reclaim Finance estimates. The International Energy Agency said back in 2021 that an immediate halt to new fossil finance was key to ensuring temperatures don't rise above the critical threshold of 1.5C. The analysis by Reclaim Finance doesn't break out the portion of bank financing that goes toward new fossil-fuel projects, and instead covers money flows to companies with expansion plans, such as Saudi Aramco. The nonprofit said it was unable to find adequate project-level data, and that investments in industry expansion serve as a proxy. Net-zero commitments "should require financial institutions telling their clients that they will withdraw their support if they do not end expansion," said Paddy McCully, the report's author. And while the finance industry often points to its growing investments in green projects, climate activists say that doesn't reduce the damaging effect of continued fossil-fuel expansion. "We need desperately to scale down the anti-climate finance," Al Gore, the former U.S. vice president who now chairs Generation Investment Management, said during a panel discussion on Tuesday in Davos, Switzerland. The Reclaim Finance study also looked at the investment industry, where it found that BlackRock is the biggest backer of fossil fuel firms that are expanding, holding just over $190 billion of stocks and bonds in companies that are still developing oil, gas and coal operations. For Vanguard Group, the figure is $184 billion, it said. The analysis "certainly undermines for now the credibility and usefulness of GFANZ," McCully said. "Government regulation is very definitely needed." A spokesperson for GFANZ said that the Reclaim Finance report focuses on "an important aspect of the energy transition," in an emailed reply to questions. "It's clear a lot of work needs to be done" and going forward,
In 16 Years, the Fed Has Approved 4,506 Bank Mergers and Denied One –by Pam and Russ Martens - On Tuesday, Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve once again thumbed its nose at President Biden’s antitrust directive regarding the creation of more mega banks through merger. This time around, the Fed allowed the Bank of Montreal, with assets of $834 billion, and its subsidiary, BMO Financial, to gobble up Bank of the West, based in San Francisco. Following the merger, Bank of the West is to be merged into Bank of Montreal’s subsidiary bank, BMO Harris Bank.On Friday, July 9, 2021, President Biden released a sweeping Executive Order that warned federal bank regulators against actions that create “excessive market concentration” with specific mention of bank merger activity. One business day later, the Federal Reserve announced that it had approved another bank merger.According to the Fed’s own data, since January 1, 2006, it has approved 4,506 bank mergers, while denying one application. (See data here and here.)At the end of 1999, the year that President Bill Clinton’s Wall Street-friendly administration repealed the 66-year old Glass-Steagall Act – ushering in an era where Wall Street’s trading casinos could buy federally-insured banks – the number of federally-insured banks and savings institutions has collapsed from a total of 10,220 to 4,746 as of September 30, 2022 according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That’s a startling decline of 54 percent in banking competition.But the decline in the number of overall banks fails to capture the magnitude of the concentration of assets at just four banking behemoths: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup’s Citibank. According to the September 30, 2022 report from the Federal Reserve, just four banks own $9.1 trillion in assets, or 39 percent of the total $23.6 trillion in assets owned by all 4,746 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the country.To put it more starkly, those four banks represent just 0.08 percent of all the banks and savings associations in the United States while controlling 39 percent of the assets.The largest bank in the United States by both assets and deposits, JPMorgan Chase, has racked up an unprecedented five felony counts from the U.S. Department of Justice for money laundering and rigging markets. Nonetheless, the Fed has allowed it to continually increase its footprint. JPMorgan Chase currently has 5,013 branch offices spread across 49 U.S. states according to the FDIC.In short, the Fed has effectively seized control of the nation’s economic future, transferring wealth from the farms, small businesses and factory floors of America to the trading floors on Wall Street – which, not ironically, include two trading floors operated by the New York Fed. (See The New York Fed Has Quietly Staffed Up a Second Trading Floor Near the S&P 500 Futures Market in Chicago and These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button.)This Orwellian arrangement forces the working class, in order to survive, to go deeper and deeper into debt on credit cards – which are, conveniently, owned by these same mega banks.
Regulators willing to break up repeat-offender banks, acting comptroller says — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and other regulators would consider breaking up big banks that repeatedly fail to correct bad behavior, according to acting Comptroller Michael Hsu.Though financial regulators have long had the power to split up banks for incessant violations, Hsu's remarks at the Brookings Institution on Tuesday were the most explicit warning in recent memory of regulators' willingness to break apart large, chronically delinquent financial institutions."Enterprises can become so big and complex that control failures, risk management breakdowns and negative surprises occur too frequently — not because of weak management, but because of the sheer size and complexity of the organization," Hsu said. "In short, effective management is not infinitely scalable."Hsu's wake-up call coincides with comments by other Biden-era regulators about the need to take stronger actions against repeat offenders like Wells Fargo. Despite the fact Wells Fargo had been under a Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap since 2018 for previous violations, the bank agreed to a $3.7 billion settlement with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau late last year in connection with accusations of breaking consumer banking rules.Banking industry watchers and officials noted that Hsu's tone turns the screws on large scandal-embroiled institutions, as regulators express an explicit willingness to go nuclear on the largest banks which fail to correct their behavior."Hsu is saying that regulators now have a formal process to break up big banks when [matters requiring attention], consent orders and growth limits prove ineffective," Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst for Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a research note after Hsu spoke.
BankThink: Regulators should rethink climate proposals to eliminate community bank impact | American Banker - Recently proposed climate risk regulations would require some community bank customers to collect and disclose greenhouse gas emissions data as a condition of banking. The proposals also would require community banks to pay myriad expenses to comply with climate risk management frameworks — including hiring subject matter experts and compliance specialists to implement these complicated frameworks.Ultimately, these proposals would cut off local communities from the community banks that best understand and best serve local environments. Community banks have decades of experience managing concentration risks and responding to extreme weather events and natural disasters in their communities — meaning new, onerous and expensive climate risk management frameworks are counterproductive.While separate climate risk management frameworks proposed by the FDIC, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve would target banks over $100 billion of assets, regulators have signaled the policies will ultimately trickle down to community banks. Gruenberg himself said, in releasing the FDIC framework, that all financial institutions are subject to climate-related financial risks, while acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu has said OCC examiners will conduct climate risk management examinations on community banks in the coming years. Regulators should not impose climate risk regulations on community banks for the following reasons. First, current risk management practices protect community banks from climate-related financial risks, as evidenced by the absence of community bank failures following severe weather events.As Gruenberg noted, community banks have employed a range of risk management strategies for generations and know their communities and loan portfolios better than anyone else. Rather than impose new climate-related guidelines on community banks, regulators should continue to utilize existing and effective risk management supervision practices, which will avoid duplicating requirements and introducing new regulatory burdens. Second, before contemplating new policies, the agencies should first conduct studies and gather empirical data to determine the extent to which climate-related financial risks affect the safety, soundness and stability of community banks and the financial system.The FDIC, OCC, Fed and SEC published their proposals without any independent studies to demonstrate climate risk is a threat to bank safety and soundness, raising questions about the validity of their assumptions. But a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study has found there has never been a bank failure due to an extreme weather event and weather disasters tend to be followed by increased economic activity that offsets weather-related losses. The lack of empirical data points to the third key concern with these proposals — that the government's ultimate motive is to choke off legal but disfavored businesses and industries from the financial system.While community banks typically are not the primary source of financing for large energy-producing companies, they do provide the majority of small-business credit in communities in which energy production, refinement, agriculture and transportation businesses exist.
Will the Supreme Court Torpedo the Financial System? -- For many judicial conservatives, the last 90 years have been an aberration: The New Deal catalyzed an enormous — malign, in their view — growth in the federal government. Lost in the regulatory jungle, they claim, is a “constitution in exile” that will emerge only when the excesses of the federal administrative state are pruned away. It’s a powerful vision. At least it is for the firms who must follow federal health, environmental or securities law. It’s less attractive if you bear the costs of financial crisis or environmental catastrophe. But the Roberts Court has been firmly on the side of those being regulated. The court’s interventions have cut deep into the regulatory state in recent years, yet none has struck a body blow to any federal agency, let alone to the coordinating role played by the federal government in steering the national economy. That may be about to change. The U.S. Solicitor General recently asked for high-court review of a Fifth Circuit opinion that does effectively neuter a federal agency, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which is much loathed on the right. The significance of the Fifth Circuit’s ruling, though, isn’t this localized effect: Rather, it casts broader doubt on funding sources for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and, crucially, the Federal Reserve. While the Fifth Circuit took lawyerly pains to narrow its judgment, its efforts are thoroughly unconvincing. It has effectively launched an attack that could imperil much of the financial regulatory infrastructure that saved the U.S. economy in 2008 and 2020. So far, the Supreme Court has waged war on the federal regulatory state along two main fronts. The first, exemplified by a June decision invalidating the EPA’s erstwhile Clean Power Plan, turns on whether Congress can delegate policy-making tasks to agencies. The second, which turns on the president’s powers to appoint and remove high-level officials, has cast a shadow on the consumer bureau and the Federal Housing Finance Agency.These rulings — especially on the Clean Power Plan — impose serious constraints on the government’s power to use regulation.The Fifth Circuit’s November opinion, however, rests on a different provision of the Constitution called the Appropriations Clause. This holds that “Money shall be drawn from the Treasury” only “in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.”In a challenge to another CFPB enforcement action, the Fifth Circuit invalidated a statute that allowed the bureau to requisition funds from the Federal Reserve. The Circuit Court contended that this mechanism was offensive to the Constitution because the CFPB is not just outside the appropriations process. It is also beyond the “indirect control” of Congress because it “draws on a source that is itself outside the appropriations process” (that is, the Fed). As a result, the Fifth Circuit said, any CFPB action using such funds was illegal — and this means all CFPB actions are illegal. This would throw out longstanding rules on mortgages, credit cards, student loans and more.But what about the Fed itself, as well as all the other banking agencies that use interest, profits, fees, and the like “outside the appropriations process?” Mustn’t all of them fall? Couldn’t someone bring a legal challenge to the Fed tomorrow — some are champing at the bit! — and shut down that body? The Fifth Circuit had soothing words on this point: The constitutional problem is that the CFPB is “double insulated” from Congress. It tacked on a surplus observation that the consumer bureau has a “capacious portfolio of authority,” as something that made the constitutional problem of freedom from legislative control worse. But don’t be fooled: As the judges of the Fifth Circuit undoubtedly know, the distinction between “single” and “double” insulation is not a legally sound one. Indeed, it has been invoked — and collapsed — in a parallel assault upon the regulatory state in the last couple of years.
Key preps for a mild recession with a big boost to its reserves - Caution lights are flashing at Cleveland-based KeyCorp, which reported an outsized fourth-quarter reserve build despite no corresponding drop-off in asset quality. The $189.8 billion-asset Key reported on Thursday a $356 million profit for the three months ending Dec. 31. That result was down 41% from the same period in 2021, but it included a whopping $265 million provision for credit losses, compared with $4 million for the same period in 2021. Had Key opted to match its provision with its modest fourth-quarter charge-offs — $41 million, or 14 basis points of average total loans — quarterly net income would have come in only slightly below the 2021 level and significantly higher on a linked-quarter basis. As things stand, the provision boosted Key's allowance for credit losses to $1.6 billion, or 1.31% of period-end loans. That is up from 1.15% of period-end loans on Sept. 30. Economic headwinds in the form of slowing gross domestic product growth and a marked decline in housing prices prompted Key to take up a defensive posture. The reserve build reflects "a more cautious economic outlook," Chief Financial Officer Don Kimble said Thursday on a conference call with investment analysts. "Our base case is that there will be a mild recession," Chairman and CEO Chris Gorman said on the same call. Key is by no means the only bank to boost reserve levels,, but even against a broad backdrop of increased provisions, the magnitude of its step-up caught some analysts by surprise. Even in a recessionary context "it still seems like a very large reserve build," Brian Foran, who covers Key for Autonomous Research, wrote Thursday in a research note. Key's $265 million provision amounts to nearly 650% of fourth-quarter net charge-offs. By contrast, the $2.3 billion provision JPMorgan Chase reported Friday works out to 259% of its fourth-quarter charge-offs. Aside from its king-size provision, the other major headwind for Key came in the capital markets space. Investment banking and debt placement fees totaled $172 million for the fourth quarter, a $151 million decline from the same period in 2021. Gorman expressed hope "the big-pent up backlog will start to clear out in the second half" of the year, but said the first six months of 2023 would be "challenging."
Could credit card late fees drop to $10? CFPB looks to rein in late fees. -Credit card late fees could drop dramatically under a proposal expected to be released soon by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Some analysts are predicting that late fees could be cut in half to as low as $15, while consumer advocates want the CFPB to reduce late fees to as low as $9 or make them proportional to the debt owed by a cardholder.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra launched a broad assault last year on so-called junk fees, and has said he specifically wants to slash the $12 billion a year in late fees charged by credit card companies. The CFPB is expected to publish a notice of proposed rulemaking this month on late fees but analysts expect the proposal will be released in February."Our expectation is that the CFPB will lower credit card late fees through the rulemaking process to between $15 to $25, though there are some advocates that want fees to go as low as $9," said Ed Groshans, senior policy and research analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau may seek to reduce the amount that banks can charge for credit card late fees. The move is the most recent effort by the bureau to set new rules on what CFPB director Rohit Chopra has called "junk fees." Banks and credit card companies argue that a reduction in late fees would harm subprime and low-income consumers the most. Any reduction in late fees would force credit card issuers to increase fees on other products, reduce credit, raise annual percentage rates on all cardholders, and potentially even slash rewards and cash-back cards, bank trade groups argue.
Could credit card late fees drop to $10? CFPB looks to rein in late fees. -Credit card late fees could drop dramatically under a proposal expected to be released soon by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Some analysts are predicting that late fees could be cut in half to as low as $15, while consumer advocates want the CFPB to reduce late fees to as low as $9 or make them proportional to the debt owed by a cardholder.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra launched a broad assault last year on so-called junk fees, and has said he specifically wants to slash the $12 billion a year in late fees charged by credit card companies. The CFPB is expected to publish a notice of proposed rulemaking this month on late fees but analysts expect the proposal will be released in February."Our expectation is that the CFPB will lower credit card late fees through the rulemaking process to between $15 to $25, though there are some advocates that want fees to go as low as $9," said Ed Groshans, senior policy and research analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau may seek to reduce the amount that banks can charge for credit card late fees. The move is the most recent effort by the bureau to set new rules on what CFPB director Rohit Chopra has called "junk fees." Banks and credit card companies argue that a reduction in late fees would harm subprime and low-income consumers the most. Any reduction in late fees would force credit card issuers to increase fees on other products, reduce credit, raise annual percentage rates on all cardholders, and potentially even slash rewards and cash-back cards, bank trade groups argue.
CFPB says servicers should offer loss mitigation beyond COVID hardships - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it expects mortgage servicers to continue offering forbearances, deferrals and loan modifications to consumers experiencing financial hardships unrelated to the COVID-19 pandemic. The CFPB said Wednesday that streamlined loss mitigation options can be made available to any borrower. Though the CFPB's special foreclosure protections for certain delinquent borrowers expired at the end of 2021, the bureau has invoked the "temporary flexibilities" in its servicing rules to make loss mitigation programs available to consumers experiencing a financial hardship, even if the borrower's financial troubles having nothing to do with COVID. "We expect servicers to continue to utilize all the tools at their disposal — including, if available, streamlined deferrals and modifications that meet the conditions of the CFPB's COVID-19-related mortgage servicing rules — in their efforts to keep consumers in their homes," Lorelei Salas, the CFPB's assistant director for supervision policy and acting assistant director for supervision examinations, said in a blog post. "As long as these streamlined loss mitigation options are made available to borrowers experiencing hardship due to the COVID-19 national emergency, those same streamlined options can also be made available under the temporary flexibilities in the rule to borrowers not experiencing COVID-19-related hardships." CFPB Director Rohit Chopra vowed last year to crack down on mortgage servicers that do not allow borrowers to restructure loan payments or that keep consumers from enrolling in forbearance or loan forgiveness programs. Salas said the CFPB's updated exam procedures provide information on fees that servicers can charge borrowers and misrepresentations related to foreclosure. The 1,812-page supervision and examination manual specifically states that examiners will determine whether a mortgage servicer's "representatives make misrepresentations or use deceptive means to collect debts."
BankThink: For many borrowers, Truth in Lending Act disclosures aren't enough | American Banker Disclosure is a ubiquitous consumer protection tool in banking. Not only does the Truth in Lending Act mandate disclosures for nearly all consumer loans, but many other laws, including the Fair Credit Reporting Act, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act, and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act — to mention only federal laws — also require disclosures to consumers.And yet, despite their prevalence, disclosures have a huge defect: many consumers cannot understand them.That is one of the findings that emerged from a study we recently conducted of TILA's credit card disclosures. We showed more than 650 consumers the Schumer Box — the disclosures that TILA requires credit card issuers to show consumers before the consumers can obtain a credit card — and a monthly statement, also in the form TILA mandates. Then we checked the consumers' comprehension by asking them questions about what the disclosures said. In fact, we asked them many of the same questions that the Federal Reserve — then the agency in charge of implementing TILA — hired a company to ask consumers when the disclosures were developed and the Fed was attempting to determine which disclosures consumers could understand.If we had graded the consumers by the same metric used in many schools, where passing requires getting 65% right, more than half would have failed. Only seven respondents scored 100%, while less than 4% got 90% or more correct. The disclosures may tell the truth, but for many consumers, it is a truth that might as well be in gibberish. And that means that for many consumers, the only consumer protection they receive against lenders who charge excessive prices is one they cannot use.African American and Latine consumers understood the disclosures significantly less well than white consumers, which may make them targets for predatory lenders. That is articularly troubling in light of lending's history of discrimination and reverse-redlining. While our study was limited to credit card disclosures, it is likely that consumers are stumped by other disclosures as well. When the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau hired a company to survey consumer understanding of the then-proposed mortgage disclosures, fewer than two-thirds of the respondents could correctly identify the first monthly payment or discover that the loan amount would not increase after closing.Though the CFPB, after finding that consumers did not know what APR meant, moved the APR disclosure to the fifth page of its mortgage disclosure form, the APR is still required to be one of the three most conspicuous car loan disclosures. More conspicuous, for example, than the monthly payments.Nor is the problem likely to go away as more consumers engage in financial transactions on smartphones. We found that consumers understood disclosures significantly less well on mobile phones than when they saw the same information on a laptop, desktop or, for that matter, on paper.
Bailout or business as usual? Home Loan bank-crypto ties raise red flags -The use of Federal Home Loan Bank advances to offset crypto deposit losses has raised questions about banks' reliance on the quasi-governmental funding mechanism for liquidity.La Jolla, Calif.-based Silvergate Bank and New York-based Signature Bank, arguably the two traditional banks with the greatest exposure to the digital asset industry, have both tapped Home Loan Bank advances following the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Of the two, Silvergate, which has pivoted the bulk of its operations toward digital assets during the past decade, was more significantly impacted by the volatility in the wake of FTX's demise. The bank received $4.3 billion in advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco in the fourth quarter of 2022 to offset $8.1 billion of drawn down deposits. Advances now account for more than 60 percent of Silvergate's wholesale funding. Silvergate Bank availed itself of billions in advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco in the fourth quarter of 2022, raising questions about whether the Home Loan Bank system should be acting as a critical source of liquidity for the banking system.The episode puts a spotlight on both the supervision of crypto activity in the banking sector and the use of advances to support institutions that do little to support housing finance."The fact that this bank, which was exposed to steep crypto losses, was entangled with a Federal Home Loan Bank, that's the first suggestion that the real financial system and crypto could be in some ways interconnected," David Zaring, a legal studies professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, said. "That it's interconnected with … a pretty hidden avenue for banks to cover their liquidity needs is, in my view, a little worrisome."At the heart of the debate is whether the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, in providing advances to Silvergate, was merely sticking to its mandate to provide liquidity to a member bank, or if it was providing a de facto bailout to a firm engaged in a risky and unproven line of business. Advances are intended to be a first-order liquidity source for member banks, said Ryan Donovan, president and CEO of the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, an organization that serves as a voice for the entire Federal Home Loan Bank System. As long as a member is in good standing and can provide the proper assets as collateral, the Home Loan Banks are inclined to provide liquidity, Donovan said."Home Loan Banks aren't an emergency source of liquidity. There's this perception that if an institution has a need for liquidity they are in some way troubled, but liquidity issues could arise for a number of reasons in the normal course of business," he said. "We were established by Congress to meet the needs of banks in those situations."Indeed, advances are often the first place many banks will turn for liquidity in a pinch. In the Fed's latest senior financial officer survey, the results of which were published last week, more than three quarters of Home Loan Bank members said they would be "very likely" to tap advances should their reserves fall below their desired level. Home Loan Bank advances were by far the most preferred liquidity source included in the questionnaire. There are several reasons why banks tend to favor advances, Zaring said, including their cost relative to other funding sources as well as the lack of stigma from industry analysts, investors and peers about using them. Meanwhile, turning to other facilities, such as the Fed's discount window, tend to be viewed more negatively, he said.Julie Hill, a law professor at the University of Alabama who specializes in financial regulation, said the regulators are aware of this preference for advances and would have to sign off on their inclusion in banks' liquidity plans. She said this was most likely the case between Silvergate and its primary regulator, the Fed. "The Federal Reserve absolutely knew before FTX that crypto presented unique liquidity risks, Silvergate absolutely knew that, too, that's part of why their balance sheet looked so much different than a traditional community bank of a similar size," Hill said. "You know Silvergate had a liquidity plan, you know part of that plan was securities and it would surprise me very much if borrowing money from places like the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco wasn't part of that liquidity plan." Silvergate and the Fed Board of Governors declined to comment for this article.
BankThink: Crypto isn't the biggest worry in the Silvergate-Home Loan bank story | American Banker - I want to begin by saying that it is with great hesitation that I alight on this column's topic.Editorializing on a story from one's own reporter as it breaks is cheeky, but editorializing on that same story two weeks in a row borders on poor taste. But a few things happened with the Silvergate-Home Loan banks story in the past week that make the topic worthy of an encore. One is that some of the nuances of what was important about the story have come into higher relief and have been placed in valuable context. The other is that, upon further reflection, the cause of concern is less about crypto infiltrating the banking system as it is about the Home Loan banks being a far more critical artery of liquidity in the financial system than policymakers may appreciate.To recap: We wrote a story last week that showed that Silvergate Bank — a crypto-pivot bank that saw roughly 70% of its deposits disappear as the FTX fiasco unfolded — had obtained $4.3 billion in advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco in the fourth quarter. Those advances came to account for most of the bank's liquid assets, even though the bank had only a vestigial tether to mortgages, housing development or anything else that might further the Federal Home Loan Banking System's ostensible mission. What is more, because Home Loan bank advances get repaid before Federal Deposit Insurance claims in a resolution, the FDIC could potentially take losses were the bank to fail. Somewhere along the way the take-home message of the story got flattened into "Home Loan banks bail out crypto," and that isn't necessarily wrong in effect even if it isn't necessarily correct in the implied intention. Home Loan banks make advances to their members in large part based on the value of their collateral, and not based on the business lines their members are engaged in. As Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco President Teresa Bazemore said in a LinkedIn post last week, Home Loan banks "do not have any oversight responsibility for a member institution's business operations," but rather rely on those that do to flag an institution as unworthy of credit. So the fact that Silvergate's deposit flight is tied to the downturn in crypto is interesting and certainly newsworthy, but not necessarily material in the San Francisco bank's decision about whether to advance Silvergate cash in exchange for government-backed securities.It's worth pausing here for a moment to note that at this point in the thread, Silvergate may seem shaky but does not yet appear to pose a systemic risk. The systemic risk angle to the story comes into play were Silvergate to fail — or, in a scenario more likely to actually pose a risk to the financial system, the failure of a string of Silvergate-like banks that are similarly situated and indebted to the Home Loan banks. But even there the risk seems somewhat remote. Home Loan bank advances are secured by government-backed debt, which is very good collateral indeed. So in the event of a failure, the Home Loan banks have a priority lien that could leave the FDIC holding the bag, but the collateral held on those advances would likely sop up a considerable portion of that debt. Before we decide that the Silvergate-Home Loan bank story is more of a financial curio than an imminent hazard, let's consider another piece of news that came in under the wire late last week. The Federal Reserve published its semiannual Senior Financial Officer Survey late Friday and found that 77% of respondents whose bank belonged to a Home Loan bank said they were "very likely" to use the Home Loan banks to replenish lost liquidity, with another 14% saying they would "likely" avail themselves of those advances if the need arose. By contrast, 78% of respondents said they were "not likely" to use the Fed's discount window to obtain liquidity, and 0% saying they were "likely" to do so. That should give us pause. The Fed's discount window is the lender of last resort, and using it sends a powerful signal to the market that you're out of options and thus unworthy of further investment — that's why banks don't want to use it. But if a bank can get all the liquidity benefits of a discount window without the market blemish — or, apparently, the oversight — then why wouldn't a bank do that instead? Indeed, many have and do, and the reach of those loans, as we learned from the Silvergate experience, likely goes far beyond housing and related markets.
Signature Bank taps Home Loan bank advances in crypto pullback --Not all banks serving the crypto industry can be painted with the same brush. Some banks that courted the business of cryptocurrency firms and exchanges are now distancing themselves from the sector amid the fallout from the FTX bankruptcy and closer scrutiny from regulators, analysts and investors. As experts pour over the financials of banks that are still doing business with cryptocurrency firms, many are looking more closely at those firms' advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank System to determine signs of stress as crypto deposits dry up.Signature Bank — a New York bank which had $110.4 billion of assets at year-end — is in the process of reducing its exposure to volatile crypto deposits and more than quadrupled its borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York to $11.3 billion in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, Signature reported Tuesday. Since the FTX bankruptcy and ensuing crypto meltdown, Signature's executives have sought to explain how their full-service commercial bank differs from other banks that focused almost exclusively on the crypto. "We don't lend in cryptocurrency," said Eric R. Howell, Signature's chief operating officer, in an interview. "We are an extremely well-diversified financial institution with most of our loans in the multifamily [market] in New York and in office, retail and commercial real estate sectors. We don't lend at all — at all — in the crypto space."Signature was a top 10 borrower of the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York long before it got into the crypto business in 2019. It is one of the largest multifamily lenders in New York with a niche in rent-stabilized properties in New York City. Signature made a name for itself when it became the first Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.-insured institution to launch a blockchain-based digital payments platform, which it called Signet, with customers that include crypto exchanges, stablecoin issuers and bitcoin miners. At the end of the third quarter, Signature had $1.4 billion in outstanding advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, down from a peak of $2.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Deposits fell at the bank in the second and third quarters, but Home Loan bank advances remained less than 2% of Signature's total assets at Sept. 30."We are truly the quintessential example of what the Federal Home Loan bank was put in place for because any borrowings that we do have from the FHLB are supporting our lending in the multifamily sector," said Howell, who described Home Loan bank borrowings as "a funding mechanism for us. It's really just part of our overall funding equation. We use these advances to fund our businesses."
Four Crypto-Friendly Banks Are Being Bailed Out with Billions from a Federal Housing Program - by Pam and Russ Martens - According to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings made by crypto-friendly banks, Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) in San Francisco, Boston, New York and Pittsburgh have made large advances of money to banks facilitating crypto in various ways as bank depositors yanked their cash and/or the banks’ share prices tanked. Among the crypto-friendly banks tapping into these FHLB advances are Silvergate Capital, parent of Silvergate Bank; Signature Bank; Provident Bancorp (owner of BankProv); and Ally Financial. This may, however, be just the tip of the iceberg because many crypto-engaged banks are not publicly traded and thus are not required to file SEC reports. S&P Global reports that as of October of last year, “the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was aware of about 80 financial institutions under its supervision that expressed interest in cryptocurrency-related activities, and about 24 of them were actively engaged.” Let that sink in for a moment: 24 federally-insured banks in the U.S. are being allowed by their federal regulators to actively engage in crypto when it has been thoroughly discredited by those in the know. Just last June, 1600 of the smartest scientists and software engineers in technology sent a letter to Congressional committees warning that both crypto and blockchain were shams. The letter included this:“As software engineers and technologists with deep expertise in our fields, we dispute the claims made in recent years about the novelty and potential of blockchain technology. Blockchain technology cannot, and will not, have transaction reversal or data privacy mechanisms because they are antithetical to its base design. Financial technologies that serve the public must always have mechanisms for fraud mitigation and allow a human-in-the-loop to reverse transactions; blockchain permits neither.”There can be no better real-world experience to prove the thesis of these scientists and software engineers than what has gone on at the collapsed FTX crypto exchange house of fraud since it filed bankruptcy on November 11. After more than $8 billion of customer funds were looted by executives before the bankruptcy filing, even after federal prosecutors were on the case FTX was hacked and hundreds of millions of dollars took flight.One of the most striking examples of the bailout hubris currently going on is at Silvergate Bank. On January 5 the bank lost 42.73 percent of its market value in one trading session, putting its stock price losses at 91 percent over the prior 12 months. According to a statement released that day by Silvergate, its “total deposits from digital asset customers declined to $3.8 billion” as of December 31, 2022 (down from the previously reported $11.9 billion on September 30, 2022.) That’s a stunning 68 percent drop in deposits in one quarter. According to an SEC filing, as of December 31, 2022, Silvergate had taken $4.3 billion in advances from the FHLB of San Francisco.The buzz around a Federal Home Loan Bank bailing out a crypto bank led to the CEO of the FHLB of San Francisco, Teresa Bryce Bazemore, releasing a statement which included this nugget: “First and foremost, I want to assure you that FHLBank San Francisco has no exposure to cryptocurrency assets….”Technically, that may be true since banks get advances from FHLBs by posting non-crypto collateral such as government bonds or mortgages on real estate. But if your reputation as a Federal Home Loan Bank is going down the sewer because you are loaning billions of dollars to a discredited crypto bank, you have reputational exposure.Signature Bank is an even larger borrower from the Federal Home Bank New York. Its borrowings from FHLB New York exploded in the fourth quarter of last year, rising to $11.3 billion. According to an SEC filing, as of September 30, 2022, it had total borrowing capacity of $23.4 billion from FHLB New York.Provident Bancorp, the holding company for BankProv, sacked its CEO, Dave Mansfield, and named a new Board Chair on December 23. Its 10Q filing with the SEC for the quarter ending December 31, 2022 has not yet been filed but its 10Q for the quarter ending September 30, 2022 carries this statement: “At September 30, 2022, we had the ability to borrow $124.9 million from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston. On that date, we had $80.5 million in advances outstanding.”In the same SEC filing, Provident Bancorp included this troublesome statement:“The Company’s Audit Committee, and subsequently the Board of Directors, has reviewed, with the assistance of outside legal counsel who were independent of the underlying matters, the facts and circumstances relating to the Company’s digital asset lending practices. In connection with this review, certain deficiencies in the Company’s internal controls were identified, which, in management’s opinion, when evaluated collectively, amounted to a material weakness in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting as of September 30, 2022….”Ally Financial’s SEC filing for the period ending September 30, 2022 shows it had $7.2 billion in loans outstanding from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh.Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp., parent of Metropolitan Commercial Bank, is now running from crypto as fast as it can. According to a press release it issued on January 9, “it will fully exit the crypto-asset related vertical. This decision follows a careful review by the Board of Directors and management and reflects recent developments in the crypto-asset industry, material changes in the regulatory environment regarding banks’ involvement in crypto-asset related businesses, and a strategic assessment of the business case for MCB’s further involvement at this time.”Metropolitan’s year-end SEC filing has not yet been made but its 10Q for the period ending September 30, 2022 shows it had no outstanding borrowings from the FHLB of New York, although it had $109.3 million in available borrowing capacity.Obviously, the Federal Home Loan Bank system was not created to bail out crypto tokens created out of thin air or Ponzi schemes masquerading as crypto exchanges. Congress created the Federal Home Loan Bank System in 1932 by passing the Federal Home Loan Bank Act. The goal was to “improve the housing finance system by facilitating the flow of credit for mortgages throughout the country.”
White House prepares new tenant protections, alarming housing industry - The White House is preparing to roll out new measures as soon as this month to protect tenants in the wake of post-pandemic price spikes, according to housing advocates and industry lobbyists who have met with administration officials. The actions — which will come even as rents have started to fall around the country — could include promoting grace periods for late rents and the right to counsel for tenants facing eviction, among other steps, advocates say. The housing industry, already facing a declining market, has mounted a preemptive counter-push, arguing that state and local regulations on leasing are sufficient and that federal intervention in the market could curtail desperately needed affordable housing investment. The industry is bracing for “some pretty intense regulation,” said Jerry Howard, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, whose members include landlords. “They need to be very cautious about what they’re doing,” said Howard, who was one of a handful of industry representatives at a November White House meeting on tenant protections. “There’s a real chance of creating a problem that doesn’t exist.” With a possible recession looming, the Biden administration will be looking for ways to provide relief to cash-strapped Americans suffering from a higher cost of living. Since the U.S. House is now under Republican control, the kind of sweeping economic legislation enacted during the last two years is off the table. Democratic lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), are leaning on the administration to go big by curbing rent increases at millions of units in properties with government-backed mortgages – a long-shot move the White House is not seriously weighing, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions. “People can’t afford to live,” said Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who spearheaded a letter last week with Warren calling on President Joe Biden to issue an executive action limiting rent hikes in properties backed by the Department of Housing and Urban Development or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled mortgage financiers. “We want to push the president as far as possible to lighten the burden of rent on everyday people.” Democrats want the administration to enact new restrictions on rent hikes and punish landlords they accuse of price-gouging -- “not just principles, not just guidelines, but what can the president do through executive action to lighten the burden on people and put more money in their pockets,” Bowman said in an interview.
Ginnie Mae ends 2022 with issuance rate far below pre-pandemic levels -Ginnie Mae's monthly issuance volume fell to $31.14 billion in December, down from $36 billion the previous month, and less than half of the $66.84 billion seen the same month a year earlier.The government bond insurer's issuance hasn't been this low since before the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in the United States in March 2020. When the pandemic started in March 2020, issuance for the month was $55.21 billion.The decrease was in line with numbers from Ginnie's annual report for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. That report showed issuance for the period had fallen to $649 billion from $934 billion a year earlier and $749 billion in FY 2020, while the volume of outstanding mortgages on Ginnie's books continued to grow. Ginnie's outstanding portfolio ended the fiscal year at $2.28 trillion, compared to $2.13 trillion a year earlier and $2.12 trillion in FY 2020. With rates relatively higher, runoff was scarce in 2022.Also of note in Ginnie's updated report was a reduction in the share of Ginnie issuers that were top 5 banks last year.Banking giant Wells Fargo, which recently confirmed it plans to stage a partial retreat from mortgages this year and has been the biggest depository issuer of Ginnie securitizations, slipped one notch to No. 4 in the 2022 rankings. Wells changed places with Nationstar, a nonbank that does business under the name Mr. Cooper, which had been two notches lower in the rankings in 2021. The only other depository that had been in the ranks of the top 10 Ginnie issuers in 2021, U.S. Bank, dropped entirely out of the rankings in 2022. It had previously been ranked eighth.No issuers defaulted during the fiscal year, which ended prior to Ginnie Mae seizing servicingfrom the bankrupt Reverse Mortgage Funding. The updated report also made mention of the fact Ginnie plans to accelerate technology development this year. Initiatives it plans to make more progress on include the digital collateral program it opened up to new applicants in 2022. The dollar volume of electronic promissory notes in that program has grown to $15 billion in the past fiscal year.During the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2022, 54,000 eMortgages were securitized, with 70% of the digital collateral involved consisting of loans guaranteed by the Department of Veteran Affairs. Loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration dominate Ginnie collateral, but VA-backed mortgages have become more prominent recently.Increased development of automation around changes in the administrative responsibilities for portfolios also is on the technology roadmap for this year.
Fannie picks five groups to receive $5 million in housing contracts Fannie Mae has selected five organizations that will receive $5 million in contracts for projects that promote affordable housing and Black homeownership. Fannie Mae announced the selection Wednesday as part of its Innovative Challenge 2022, a nationwide competition for the most innovative proposals that address racial equity issues and the affordable housing crisis. It said it solicited proposals to specifically address consumer credit challenges and upfront and unexpected costs in buying a home. Last year, Fannie awarded $7 million to 13 organizations. Maria Evans, Fannie Mae's vice president of community impact, said the government-sponsored enterprise is committed to knocking down barriers for Black consumers. "A history of discriminatory housing policies and practices has created profound inequities in the housing system that persist to this day," Evans said in a press release. The five groups selected are RebuildMetro, a Baltimore nonprofit that is seeking to restore the properties around Johnston Square in East Baltimore; Southside Community Development & Housing Corp., a Richmond, Virginia, nonprofit that builds affordable housing units; Twin Cities Habitat for Humanity, which plans to down payment assistance for affordable home loans; the Community Builders, a Boston- and New York-based real estate company that will help repair credit for renters; and Module, a Pittsburgh prefab housing firm that plans to expand its energy-efficient homes to Prince George's County, Maryland, and to Richmond. Fannie Mae said the proposals went through multiple rounds of reviews and were evaluated by an expert advisory panel. The competition is part of Fannie's Sustainable Communities Partnership and Innovation Initiative, which focuses on finding solutions to pressing housing issues.
How the FTC's proposed ban on noncompetes could impact lenders - The Federal Trade Commission's proposed rule banning noncompetes is likely to have a substantial impact on the mortgage industry if it is enacted. The proposed legislation will not only ban noncompetes, but may create greater scrutiny over nonsolicit clauses and set a higher burden for poaching lawsuits, a handful of attorneys said.The proposed rule would make it illegal for employers to attempt to enter into a noncompete with a worker, or to enforce a noncompete agreement. The commentary periodfor industry stakeholders ends March 10. A version of the legislation is expected to go into effect sometime this year, several attorneys say. Mortgage lenders who use noncompetes will have to rescind them, and will be barred from using them as a mechanism to keep loan originators, executives and marketing personnel from jumping ship to competitors. Some states, including California, North Dakota and Oklahoma, already prohibit the use of noncompetes. Other states, such as Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Washington, have banned noncompete agreements for low-wage workers.In the mortgage industry, noncompetes have been used as a way to "protect an investment" especially if the originator received a sign-on bonus, said David Stein, partner at Ohio-based law firm Taft Stettinius & Hollister LLP. They have also been used as a "weapon" to keep employees from leaving."There are dozens and dozens of lawsuits that are filed every year in the mortgage industry, seeking to enforce noncompetes, and there are some known employers that use noncompetes as a weapon to retain their talent," Stein said.
New York foreclosure law may lead to dismissals of older cases - New York's newly enacted foreclosure law suggests servicers should closely reexamine older distressed mortgages they have in the state as it may lead the courts to dismiss certain cases against borrowers.In the final week of 2022, Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the Foreclosure Abuse Prevention Act, abill passed last spring by the New York State Legislature to roll back an appeals court decision that had given servicers more leeway to extend the statute of limitations in foreclosure cases. Both chambers of the legislature approved the bill, which restricted servicers ability to do this, by a wide margin and on a bipartisan basis.The law became effective immediately, leaving a question mark hanging over certain older liens and heightening concerns about how to proceed with future cases. "There are some number of active foreclosures pending today that are retroactively now deemed to be time-barred," said Brian McGrath, partner at Hinshaw & Culbertson and a critic of the legislation. "Either those cases will have to be dismissed by the courts under this law, or the plaintiffs, in those actions, will have to argue that the retroactivity portion of this law is unconstitutional based on due process grounds."On initiation of foreclosure proceedings in the state, servicers have a six-year statute of limitations requiring the action to be completed in New York. Previously, in the event of a servicer-introduced deacceleration, or "affirmative act" that discontinued the course of foreclosure, the clock could be reset, allowing for future legal action against the loan if it fell into subsequent distress. The new legislation aims to eliminate the loophole and restrict legal action against liens six years after the borrower defaults and the mortgage company accelerates the debt, calling all obligations due and payable. This could potentially affect tens of thousands of borrowers with foreclosure actions prior to 2017.
Conn. HOAs can no longer block solar installations - Kenneth McKinney took notice of the south-facing back roof before buying his Granby, Connecticut, home about two years ago. That roof, he thought, is ideal for solar panels. So after he and his wife, Maribeth, moved into the new home in the Copper Brook Circle planned community, He asked nearby neighbors if they had any objections to a view of panels on his back roof. Hearing none, last October he approached the executive board of the homeowner’s association. And that’s where the project came to a halt. After seeking feedback from other homeowners in the 34-home community, the board told McKinney it was rejecting his request. In a December email to McKinney, board president Robert Picard said the board felt “that any decision relative to solar panels should not be rushed into and not considered until a specific and well thought out plan for Copper Brook is developed.” Ultimately, Picard said, a solar panel policy “will be decided by a vote of the homeowners unless mandated by law.” But as it turns out, Connecticut does have such a mandate, though few people are aware of it. “This is one of the best-kept secrets from the past legislative session,” said Mark Scully, president of People’s Action for Clean Energy, or PACE.Buried in the 35-page Connecticut Clean Air Act, or Senate Bill 4, is a provision that prohibits common interest communities from adopting or enforcing rules that would prevent any unit owner from installing a solar generating system on their roof. The law also includes so-called right-to-charge provisions, outlining the rights of condo owners and renters to install electric charging equipment in a garage or dedicated parking space. Condominiums are exempt from the rooftop solar provision. Previously, Connecticut was the only New England state without some sort of law restricting homeowners’ associations from banning rooftop solar. Andrea Dunn, a lawyer and vice chair of the legislative advocacy committee for the state chapter of the Community Associations Institute, said the provision came up unexpectedly last session when it seemed lawmakers were “throwing everything into this Clean Air Act.” She said her organization worked with former state Sen. Will Haskell on the provision’s wording. “It’s been looming,” Dunn said. “The last five years this has been coming down the pike. I’ve been prepping my communities to keep it in mind because we’re going to have to be doing this.” The provision allows associations to adopt rules governing the size and manner of installing rooftop solar, as well as the unit owner’s responsibilities for upkeep and maintenance. Associations are also allowed to establish prohibitions on any unit owner installing solar on shared common elements of the community. Dunn says associations will have to address solar in much the same way they did satellite dishes years ago. “They can’t really say no, but they can say where you can place [the dish]. When you leave, you have to take it off. If you damage the roof, you have to fix the roof,” she said. “I imagine solar is going to go the same route as that.”
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP - A brief excerpt: In a 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.First, from February 2005 (18 years ago!): The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. .. Many homeowners have refinanced their homes, in essence using their homes as an ATM.It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. An actual bust, especially with all of the extensive sub-prime lending, might cause a serious problem. And a serious problem is what happened!
Home prices slowed in 4Q: Fannie Mae -Home price growth was largely stagnant to close last year, as high interest rates continued to discourage prospective buyers, Fannie Mae reported.Values for single-family properties rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% over the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the prior three months, according to the latest Home Price Index from the government-sponsored enterprise. Home prices rose 9.2% in the fourth quarter compared to the same time in 2021 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, but that growth was markedly down from the year-over-year growth in the third quarter in 2022, of 13.1%."The rise in mortgage rates over the past year and record inflation have constrained the purchasing power of prospective homebuyers," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae vice president and deputy chief economist, in a press release. "The resulting affordability pressures are evident in the home price declines of the past two quarters, along with the downturn in home sales."The GSE aggregates county-level data and excludes condos for its index, which was formerly an internal report before Fannie Mae began making it publicly available last April. The HPI hit a peak of 19.7% year-over-year home price growth in the first quarter last year, the highest surge on record according to data dating back to 1976.The miniscule quarterly home price growth gain at the end of 2022 was slightly higher than the 0.1% seasonally adjusted gain in the third quarter, Fannie Mae found. When accounting for a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home values declined 1.0% in the fourth quarter.The housing market is enduring a difficult cycle of diminished demand amid rising mortgage rates and inflation. Mortgage activity hit a 26-year low to end December according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Wavering mortgage rates over 6% are also keeping homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates in the prior two years on the sidelines, according to Fannie Mae.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in December - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 1.5% in December Existing-home sales retreated for the eleventh consecutive month in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month drops, while sales in the West were unchanged. All regions experienced year-over-year declines.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 1.5% from November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in December. Year-over-year, sales sagged 34.0% (down from 6.09 million in December 2021)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of December was 970,000 units, which was down 13.4% from November but up 10.2% from one year ago (880,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.3 months in November but up from 1.7 months in December 2021.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in December (4.02 million SAAR) were down 1.5% from the previous month and were 34.0% below the December 2021 sales rate. Sales were just above the pandemic low of 4.01 million SAAR.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 0.97 million in December from 1.12 million in November. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was up 10.2% year-over-year (blue) in December compared to December 2021.Months of supply (red) decreased to 2.9 months in December from 3.3 months in November. This was above the consensus forecast.
Existing home sales and prices decline; plus, a closer look at multi-unit housing construction - I will keep my comments on December existing home sales and prices brief. That’s because, even though they make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. They are best used to confirm trends; in this case, that housing sales have continued to decline, and prices (which follow sales with a lag) have also rolled over. And confirm both trends they did. December sales declined another -1.5% to 4.02 million annualized, a -34% YoY decline. Via Mortgage News Daily, here’s what they looked like for the last 3 years through November: The median price of an existing home, which isn’t seasonally adjusted, declined further to $366,900, only a 2.3% YoY increase from 2021’s $358,800. My rule of thumb for non-seasonally adjusted data is that the trend has turned when the YoY increase is less than 1/2 of its maximum increase in the past 12 months. That was January 2022’s +17.1%. Needless to say, only a 2.3% YoY increase in December confirms that prices have turned down. Here’s what YoY prices also look like for the past 3 years through November: With that out of the way, I wanted to follow up a little on yesterday’s post about housing construction, since I read a piece that pointed out that the remaining strength in the market is multi-family construction. Indeed, that is the case. Single family housing under construction peaked at 828,000 units annualized in April, and is down -7% since then, while multi-unit construction has continued to increase since that time from 827,000 units annualized to 926,000, a 12% increase: This is not unusual. A long term look indicates that with the exception of the 1980s, multi-unit construction has always peaked later than single family construction: This is generally because apartment and condominium living is typically a less expensive alternative to buying a single family home. When prices get steep enough, young buyers in particular find that apartments or condos are their only affordable option. Still, with the exception of the pandemic, and at the tail end of the 2000s housing bubble, even multi-unit construction has turned down in advance of recessions. The latest occasions (outside of 2007, when there was a -3% decrease followed by a 6% increase up until the recession began) were in 1973 and 1981, where multi-unit construction peaked 4 months before the onset of the recessions, and declined -3% and -7% respectively. Most often, multi unit construction peaked no later than 4 months after single family construction, although in the case of the housing bubble, it took over 2 years! Since the YoY% pace of multi-unit construction growth has only slowed from 27% in August to 24.8% in December, it appears we are at least a few months away from this sector rolling over. Edited to Add: In the past, multi-unit housings under construction has generally peaked 1-5 months after the 3 month average of multi-unit starts has peaked. The below graph shows such starts both monthly (which are very noisy, blue) and quarterly (gold) to best show this: The 3 month average of multi-unit starts appears to have just peaked in Sep-Nov, so it is likely that multi-unit construction turns down by April.
Prices of Existing Homes Fall 11% from Peak. Sales Hit Lockdown Low. Cash Buyers and Investors Pull Back Hard by Wolf Richter - This is getting relentless: Sales of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops fell by 1.5% in December from November, the 11th month in a row of month-to-month declines, and by 34% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.02 million homes, roughly matching the lockdown-low in May 2020, and beyond that the lowest since the depth of Housing Bust 1 in 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors today.Priced right, just about any home will sell, but sellers are not wanting to price their homes right. And potential sellers are sitting on their vacant homes, hoping for a quick end to this downturn, or they’re putting it on the rental market or try to make a go of it as a vacation rental, rather than dealing with the reality of a mind-blowing housing bubble that has loudly popped (historic data via YCharts): Actual sales in December – not the “seasonally adjusted annual rate” of sales – fell 36.3% year-over-year, to 326,000 homes (from 513,000 homes a year ago), according to the NAR.The median price of all types of homes whose sales closed in November fell for the sixth month in a row, to $366,900, down 11.3% from the peak in June. This drop whittled down the year-over-year gain to just 2.3%, from a year-over-year gain of 16% in the spring of 2022.Only a portion of this June-December price drop is seasonal: The average June-December decline over the six years before the pandemic was 5.8%, with a maximum decline of 6.4% and a minimum decline of 3.8%. This shows that the current 11.3% decline goes well beyond even the maximum seasonal decline.Additional confirmation that much of this decline was not seasonal is provided by the rapidly shrinking year-over-year price gain, down to just 2.3%, from 16% in December 2021 through the spring of 2022 (historic data via YCharts):
Home construction set for further slowing as permits fall --The homebuilding industry appears set for more slowing in the near term, as permit issuances dwindle while shortages of many supplies continue, according to the National Association of Home Builders.Issuances of new single-family permits in 2022 slowed in November, coming in 10.5% lower than the same month in 2021. A total of 921,626 permits, which typically lead to housing starts, were issued between January and November of 2022 compared to 1,029,208 over the same period a year earlier. Declines occurred nationwide, with the largest drops of 13.9% and 13.6% coming in the West and Midwest. The Northeast and South, meanwhile, also posted smaller decreases of 10.2% and 8.4%, respectively. Colorado recorded the sharpest drop of all states, as permits fell to 22,900 year to date from 31,741, a decrease of 27.9%. New Mexico, its neighbor to the south, however, saw the largest gain, rising 37.5% to 6,989 from 5,083 over the first 11 months of 2021. Overall, only five states and the District of Columbia reported increases. The news comes after what many builders would term a downbeat year, with constructionindustry sentiment falling in every month of 2022, the NAHB said. Values of homebuilder equities have also taken a hit, according to recent analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence. "U.S. homebuilder stocks remained under pressure with the median one-year total return recording a negative 26.7% as of Jan. 4," S&P's report said.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.382 million Annual Rate in December --From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,382,000. This is 1.4 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,401,000 and is 21.8 percent below the December 2021 rate of 1,768,000. Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 909,000; this is 11.3 percent above the revised November figure of 817,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 463,000.An estimated 1,553,300 housing units were started in 2022. This is 3.0 percent below the 2021 figure of 1,601,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,330,000. This is 1.6 percent below the revised November rate of 1,351,000 and is 29.9 percent below the December 2021 rate of 1,896,000. Single‐family authorizations in December were at a rate of 730,000; this is 6.5 percent below the revised November figure of 781,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 555,000 in December.An estimated 1,649,400 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2022. This is 5.0 percent below the 2021 figure of 1,737,000.The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in December compared to November. Multi-family starts were down 14.9% year-over-year in December. Single-family starts (red) increased in December and were down 25.0% year-over-year.The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts.Total housing starts in December were above expectations, however, starts in October and November were revised down, combined.
December Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: December Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: Possibly Important: Multi-family permits averaged 536,000 SAAR over the last two months after averaging close to 650,000 SAAR over the previous 8 months. This decline in permits is a possible signal that the expected decline in multi-family starts has begun (although permits aren’t a perfect leading indicator for starts).... The fifth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there are 769 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This was up slightly in December compared to November, but 59 thousand below the recent peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 943 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since December 1973! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are an all-time record 1.712 million units under construction....The recent weakness has been mostly for single family starts; however, it appears the expected decline in multi-family starts has begun.
Residential Construction Splits: Multifamily Starts in 2022 Jump to Highest since 1980s Boom, Single-Family Starts Drop by Wolf Richter --Construction starts of multifamily projects, such as condo and apartment buildings, with five or more units jumped by 14.5% in 2022 from the prior year, to 529,000 units, according to data from the Census Bureau today. This was:
- Up 35% from the range between 2015 and 2020.
- Up 75% from the range in the decade before the Financial Crisis.
- The highest annual total since 1986, nearly matching the three peak-years of that boom.
- Way below the crazy boom of the early 1970s that then turned into an epic bust.
Multifamily projects tend to be big and have long lead times. Projects where construction started in 2022 were in the planning stages years earlier. So these are long-term trends.In many densely populated cities and urban cores – think of Manhattan, San Francisco, Boston, etc. – multifamily is just about the only type of housing that is getting built, and much of it is higher end, because that’s where the money is in expensive cities. Single-family construction takes place further away from urban cores.Construction starts of single-family houses fell by 10.6% in 2022, to 1.01 million houses, after a decade of increases that followed Housing Bust 1 which nearly destroyed the homebuilder industry. The number of single-family starts in 2021 had been the highest since Housing Bubble 1, which became infamous for overbuilding. But beyond that, the years 2021 and 2022 were roughly in the middle of the range of the years before 2000: Homebuilders sit on huge inventories, which is why they have cut back. Inventories of houses in various stages of construction have been piling up for two years and have now reached levels not seen since early 2008, according to data from the Census Bureau released in December – 461,000 units, seasonally adjusted. Home builders have faced a plunge in orders and large-scale cancellations of orders that they did get. So they’re heaping on incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns and what not to move the inventory they have, and they’re finishing projects that they have in the pipeline, but as an industry, they have dialed back new projects:
Fed's Beige Book: "A sizable volume of new apartment development is due to be completed in 2023" -- Fed's Beige Book: "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on information collected on or before January 9, 2023." Excerpt: Overall economic activity was relatively unchanged since the previous report. Five Districts reported slight or modest increases in overall activity, six noted no change or slight declines, and one cited a significant decline. On balance, contacts generally expected little growth in the months ahead. Consumer spending increased slightly, with some retailers reporting more robust sales over the holidays. Other retailers noted that high inflation continued to reduce consumers' purchasing power, particularly among low- and moderate-income households. Auto sales were flat on average, but some dealers noted that increased vehicle availability had boosted sales. Tourism contacts reported moderate to robust activity augmented by strong holiday travel. Manufacturers indicated that activity declined modestly on average, and, in many Districts, reported that supply chain disruptions had eased. Housing markets continued to weaken, with sales and construction declining across Districts. Commercial real estate activity slowed slightly, on average, with more notable weakening in the office market. Nonfinancial services firms experienced stable demand on balance. Most bankers reported that residential mortgage demand remained weak, and some said higher borrowing costs had begun to dampen commercial lending. Energy activity continued to increase moderately, and agriculture conditions were generally unchanged or improving.Employment continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace for most Districts. Only one District reported a slight decline in employment, and one other reported no change in employment levels.And some regional comments on apartments:
- New York: A sizable volume of new apartment development is due to be completed in 2023.
- St Louis: In November, month-over-month median rental rates on new leases fell in all four major District MSAs for both one- and two-bedroom apartments.
- Dallas: Apartment leasing softened beyond seasonality, with occupancy and rents slipping modestly.
Jan. 8-14, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 54.8% (-5.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $144.81 (+15.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $79.38 (+9.3%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. Year-over-year comparisons will once again become standard after the first quarter. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue), but this is the slow season - and some of the early year weakness might be related to the timing of the report.The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next few months.
The US Consumer Has Cracked: Discover Plunges After "Shocking" Charge-Off Forecast (graphs) - One week ago we looked at the latest consumer credit data where we found not one but two flashing red alerts:
- First, the total amount of credit card debt hit a new all time high, which however was to be expected from one of the most consistently increasing series across all US economic data, and one which predictably is correlated to the US savings rate which is at all time lows.
- Second, thanks to the Fed's crusade to spark a great recession, the average rate across US credit cards just rose to an all time high 19%+
Summarizing these ominous trends we concluded that... The combination of record high credit card debt and record high credit card interest is nothing short of catastrophic for both the US economy, and the strapped consumer who has no choice but to keep buying on credit while hoping next month's bill will somehow not come. Unfortunately, it will and at some point in the very near future, this will also translate into massive loan losses for US consumer banks; that's when Powell will finally panic. And while the big US banks are diversified enough - and flooded with enough reserves for now - to deflect attention from spiking charge offs rates on their balance sheets, even though as we discussed last week the credit loss provisions (a hedge against a spike in bad debt) across the Big Four banks did in fact jump the most in a decade (excluding the covid shock).... some of the smaller credit-card companies can no longer avoid the reality that the US consumer has finally cracked and a wave of defaults is coming. Presenting Exhibit A: Discover Financial Services (DFS), a credit card issuer which traditionally targets to low to middle-income households, and which yesterday reported earnings that were so scary, Wall Street has uniformly dubbed them "shocking." But while the bulk of the company's historical results were actually not all that bad, it was its forecast that a stunner: in a presentation on its website, DFS forecast that its charge offs would climb as high as 3.9% this year (it gave a range of 3.50% to 3.90%) which is more than double the 1.82% net charge off rate it booked for all of 2022 and was about 100bps higher than the 2.8% consensus estimate. Cutting to the chase, this is what the company's historical and projected charge offs look like: And since this is a net number, the gross number will likely hit 5% or more, a level not seen outside of painful recessions.
Retail Sales Decreased 1.1% in December - On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 1.1% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.0 percent from December 2021.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.1 billion, down 1.1 percent from the previous month, but up 6.0 percent above December 2021.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.8% in December.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.8% on a YoY basis. Sales in December were below expectations, and sales in October and November were revised down, combined.
U.S. retail sales post biggest drop in a year; inflation retreating (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell by the most in a year in December, pulled down by declines in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a weaker growth path heading into 2023. The second straight monthly decrease in retail sales, which are mostly goods, is undercutting production at factories. Manufacturing output recorded its biggest drop in nearly two years in December, while monthly producer prices also tumbled, other data showed on Wednesday. The widespread signs of weakening demand and subsiding inflation are likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its rate increases next month, but not pause its monetary policy tightening anytime soon as the labor market remains tight. The U.S. central bank is engaged in its fastest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s. "Consumers are likely retrenching during a time of economic uncertainty," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The trajectory for the economy is weakening and recession risks are rising for 2023." Retail sales plummeted 1.1% last month, the biggest drop since December 2021. Data for November was revised to show sales decreasing 1.0% instead of 0.6% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales decreasing 0.8%. Retail sales rose 6.0% year-on-year in December. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. December's decline in sales was likely in part the result of goods prices falling during the month. Holiday shopping was also pulled forward into October as inflation-weary consumers took advantage of discounts offered by retailers. A cold snap in December likely chilled sales, especially at restaurants and bars. Lower gasoline prices, which impacted on receipts at service stations, also helped to knock down sales. In addition, spending is shifting back to services. Even accounting for the distortions, higher interest rates have raised the cost of credit, which many Americans use to finance goods purchases, eroding retail sales in recent months. Sales at auto dealers fell 1.2%. Receipts at service stations tumbled 4.6%. Online retail sales dropped 1.1%. Furniture stores sales plummeted 2.5%. Receipts at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, fell 0.9%. Electronics and appliance store sales declined 1.1%. There were also decreases in clothing stores sales as well as receipts at general merchandise stores. But sporting goods, hobby and musical instrument stores eked out gains as did building material and garden equipment suppliers. .11:06 PM
Falling Prices of Goods Push Down Retail Sales (as Inflation Shifted Massively to Services) -by Wolf Richter - The headlines are saying stuff like, “Retail sales slide by the most in a year,” but what they don’t say is that prices of goods — which is what retailers sell — dropped in December, as inflation has massively shifted into services, which are not included in retail sales. In the biggest retail categories, such as motor vehicles and gasoline, and even in some smaller categories, such as cannabis, prices have dropped hard.In December, retail sales fell 1.1% from November, while prices of nondurable goods (dominated by food and gasoline) dropped 1.2%; and prices of durable goods (new and used vehicles, appliances, furniture, electronics, etc.) dropped 0.8%, the fourth month in a row of declines. It’s these price declines in goods that are largely responsible for pushing down retail sales. On the other hand, consumer spending that enters into “real” GDP is adjusted for price changes and will show that consumers are plodding along, spending a little less on goods maybe, but more on services. When retailers raise prices, their revenues rise, and they don’t even have to sell more stuff; and we saw that during the surge of goods inflation in early 2022. That’s why companies love inflation. And when retailers cut those elevated prices because they’re losing sales to competitors – as consumers suddenly refuse to pay whatever but nitpick prices and change brands and products – then revenues fall, which is happening now. The CPI for nondurable goods – dominated by food and gasoline – dropped 1.2% in December and is down 3% from the peak in June, as gasoline prices plunged 3.6% for the month, and as food-price increases moderated to just 0.2%, the slowest month-to-month increase since March 2021. Cannabis prices are plunging (-13% in Q3 year-over-year, according to BDSA, which covers the New York cannabis market), on booming supply from states where recreational cannabis is now legal, overwhelming even strong demand. Cannabis prices are not tracked by the CPI yet. But today’s retail sales include sales at Cannabis stores in the “Miscellaneous store” category, and we’ll get to that in a moment. The CPI for durable goods – new and used vehicles, appliances, furniture, electronics, etc. – dropped 0.8% in December from October and is down 2.5% on dropping prices of electronics and used vehicles.Seasonally adjusted, total retail sales fell by 1.1% in December from November, the second month in a row of declines, to $677 billion, which was still up by 6.7% year-over-year. Compared to pre-pandemic December 2019, retail sales were up 29% (red). But not seasonally adjusted, retail sales jumped to a record $749 billion in December (purple).
The Rise And Fall (And Rise Again) Of Music Sales, By Format (1973-2021) -- We live in a world of music. Whether when driving to work or jamming out at home, people around the world like to have their favorite tunes playing in the background. But while our love for music has been constant, the way we consume media has evolved drastically. The past 50 years have seen many different music formats used to access these tunes, mirroring society’s shift from analog to digital. This video, created by James Eagle vis Visual Capitalist using data from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), highlights sales of different music formats in the U.S. over the last 50 years.There’s no doubt that digital music formats are getting increasingly popular with every passing year. However, one of our vintage and beloved music formats—the vinyl record—seems to be making a comeback. According to the RIAA database, the revenue earned by LP/EP sales has shot up to $1.0 billion in 2021, its highest total since the mid-1980s.
NYC grocery stores consider locking up food due to rampant theft; workers are 'traumatized' --Shampoo, toothpaste, and razor blades are all items that grocery stores have increasingly started locking behind counters. Soon, that list might include food. "People have no fear of coming to your store and stealing," said Nelson Eusebio of the National Supermarket Association."Our employees are terrified," Eusebio continued. "We have young people that come to work, young cashiers who work part-time, these kids are 16-17 years old. They're traumatized." The National Supermarket Association represents independent grocery stores in New York City. Its statistics show that 30% of its membership has left the city over the past few years. New York City has been host to a spree of "serial shoplifters," men and woman who make a regular habit of bursting into stores, stealing as much as they can, and leaving. This has resulted in over 4,000 grocery stores calling for prosecutors to set bail for repeat thieves and to make assaults on retail workers a Class D felony."Everything that is cosmetics, shampoo, baby formula is behind the counters. It's going to be more and more of that happening," Eusebio says. "We're going to have an environment where everything is behind the counter and the shopping experience is just going to be gone."The industry is banding together to form a coalition called Collective Action to Protect our Stores (CAPS).
Industrial Production Decreased 0.7 Percent in December --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production decreased 0.7 percent in December and 1.7 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter. In December, manufacturing output fell 1.3 percent amid widespread declines across the sector. The index for utilities jumped 3.8 percent, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating, while the index for mining moved down 0.9 percent. At 103.4 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in December was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization dropped 0.6 percentage point in December to 78.8 percent, a rate that is 0.8 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2021) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).Capacity utilization at 78.8% is 0.8% below the average from 1972 to 2021. This was below consensus expectations.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in December to 104.5. This is above the pre-pandemic level.The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.
Microsoft to cut thousands of jobs across divisions - reports (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp plans to cut thousands of jobs with some roles expected to be eliminated in human resources and engineering divisions, according to media reports on Tuesday. The expected layoffs would be the latest in the U.S. technology sector, where companies including Amazon.com Inc and Meta Platforms Inc have announced retrenchment exercises in response to slowing demand and a worsening global economic outlook. Microsoft's move could indicate that the tech sector may continue to shed jobs. "From a big picture perspective, another pending round of layoffs at Microsoft suggests the environment is not improving, and likely continues to worsen," Morningstar analyst Dan Romanoff said. U.K broadcaster Sky News reported, citing sources, that Microsoft plans to cut about 5% of its workforce, or about 11,000 roles.
Google parent Alphabet to cut 12,000 jobs as tech job losses continue - Google’s parent company, Alphabet, will cut about 12,000 jobs, as tech companies across the board continue to engage in mass layoffs. “Over the past two years we’ve seen periods of dramatic growth,” CEO Sundar Pichai said in an email to Google employees on Friday. “To match and fuel that growth, we hired for a different economic reality than the one we face today.”After a “rigorous review,” Pichai said they would be cutting positions across “product areas, functions, levels and regions” at Alphabet. “As an almost 25-year-old company, we’re bound to go through difficult economic cycles,” Pichai added. “These are important moments to sharpen our focus, reengineer our cost base, and direct our talent and capital to our highest priorities.” The company will offer severance packages to those affected by the layoffs, as well as six months of health care, job placement services and immigration support. Alphabet will also hold a town hall with employees on Monday.The mass layoffs in Big Tech follow a hiring boom as the COVID-19 pandemic changed consumers’ purchasing habits, as well as growing concerns that the U.S. economy will soon face a recession.Microsoft announced on Wednesday that it plans to lay off 10,000 employees, or about 5 percent of its workforce, as revenue growth slows. Amazon said earlier this month that it will cut about 18,000 roles after hiring “rapidly over the last several years.”
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 190,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending January 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 190,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000. The 4-week moving average was 206,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,500.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Despite Mass Layoffs, Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 8-Month Lows The US labor market appears to about as strong as it has ever been as the number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits plunged to 190k (well below the 214k expectation) - its lowest level since April 2022... Source: Bloomberg The non-seasonally-adjusted level of initial claims also reversed lower. Want to know what drove this unusual drop in claims? Simple - New York saw jobless collapse - a massive outlier... This has to be storm-related in some way. Continuing jobless claims rose last week, up from 1.63mm to 1.647mm... This is very much not the picture that Jay Powell is hoping to see... At the start of last year, monetary policy transmission was working - jobless claims were rising as financial conditions tightened... then it all broke! And now... Financial conditions easing and the labor market tightening.
Tech Layoffs Shock Young Workers. The Older People? Not So Much.— When Lyft laid off 13% of its workers in November, Kelly Chang, 26, was shocked to find herself among the 700 people who lost their jobs at the San Francisco company. Brian Pulliam, on the other hand, brushed off the news that crypto exchange Coinbase was eliminating his job. Ever since the 48-year-old engineer was laid off from his first job at the video game company Atari in 2003, he said that he has asked himself once a year, “If I were laid off, what would I do?” The contrast between Chang’s and Pulliam’s reactions to their respective professional letdowns speaks to a generational divide that is becoming clearer as the tech industry, which expanded rapidly through the pandemic, swings toward mass layoffs. Microsoft said this week it planned to cut 10,000 jobs, or roughly 5% of its workforce. And Friday morning, Google’s parent company Alphabet said it planned to cut 12,000 jobs, or about 6% of its worker total. Their cuts follow big layoffs at other tech companies such as Meta, Amazon and Salesforce. Millennials and Generation Z, born between 1981 and 2012, started tech careers during a decadelong expansion when jobs multiplied as fast as iPhone sales. The companies they joined were conquering the world and defying economic rules. And when they went to work at outfits that offered bus rides to the office and amenities including free food and laundry, they weren’t just taking on a new job; they were taking on a lifestyle. Few of them had experienced widespread layoffs. Baby boomers and members of Generation X, born between 1946 and 1980, on the other hand, lived through the biggest contraction the industry has ever seen. The dot-com crash of the early 2000s eliminated more than 1 million jobs, emptying Silicon Valley’s Highway 101 of commuters as many companies folded overnight. “It was a bloodbath, and it went on for years,” said Jason DeMorrow, a software engineer who was laid off twice in 18 months and was out of work for more than six months. “As concerning as the current downturn is, and as much as I empathize with the people impacted, there’s no comparison.” Tech’s generational divide is representative of a broader phenomenon. The year someone is born has a big influence on views about work and money. Early personal experiences strongly determine a person’s appetite for financial risk, according to a 2011 study by economists Ulrike Malmendier of the University of California, Berkeley and Stefan Nagel of the University of Chicago. “Once you experience your first crash, things change,” Nagel said. “You realize bad stuff happens and maybe you should be a bit more cautious.”
U.S. union membership rate falls to all-time low despite organizing efforts, data shows | (Reuters) - The United States' union membership rate, or percentage of wage and salary workers who belong to unions, edged down to an all-time low in 2022, data released by a government agency showed. The union membership rate fell from 10.3% in 2021 to 10.1% in 2022, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. However, the number of wage and salary workers who are members of unions, at 14.3 million last year, increased by 273,000, or 1.9%, from 2021, the data showed. The total number of wage and salary workers grew by 5.3 million, or 3.9%, most of them non-union workers. "This disproportionately large increase in the number of total wage and salary employment compared with the increase in the number of union members led to a decrease in the union membership rate," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a statement. The data released Thursday shows that while unionization efforts have come into the limelight, they have not translated into greater representation of the workforce. A surge in union organizing began during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. and has included unprecedented efforts to unionize Amazon.com Inc(AMZN.O) warehouses, Starbucks(SBUX.O) cafes, Apple Inc(AAPL.O) retail stores and video game developers. In December, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the agency that enforces U.S. labor laws, made it easier for unions to organize small groups of a company's workforce, a move that was expected to give them a key advantage in campaigns to unionize factories, warehouses, universities and other sprawling workplaces.
Defective Meters and Whistleblower Complaints Raise Questions About Gas Utility’s Profits -A little over a decade ago, Gary Dye, then a gas measurement engineer at NW Natural, Oregon’s largest gas utility, lost faith in his employer to responsibly deal with what he believed to be systematic inaccuracies among the company’s hundreds of thousands of gas meters. On a quest to tame these inaccuracies, in late 2011, he proposed a simple technical fix that he claims will “result in more accurate billing, extended meter lives, reduced landfill waste, and a more efficient utilization of [utility] personnel.”Dye had other suggestions for how the company should operate. A few months later, he decided to file an internal complaint stating that he had been told “to discard a spreadsheet full of incriminating data that showed bad meter testing.” Ultimately, he filed 21 internal ethical misconduct complaints against colleagues and top executives, including current NW Natural CEO David Anderson, later elevating his concerns to the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC), the body that regulates NW Natural. Several months after he approached the commission, NW Natural terminated his employment.Internal corporate documents and public records reviewed by DeSmog support several of Dye’s claims, including allegations that NW Natural executives downplayed or ignored employee concerns about billing accuracy issues associated with projects that facilitated extremely profitable energy market speculation. In email correspondence to NW Natural and regulators in July 2021, nearly a decade after his termination, Dye raised fresh allegations that company practices and regulatory policies allowing utilities more time to replace inaccurate meters were resulting in insufficient customer reimbursements and unearned corporate profits associated with systematic overbilling.Meanwhile, a version of Dye’s proposed solution to this problem has been adopted by several other utilities, including the country’s largest gas distribution company, SoCalGas, which received the blessing of California regulators in 2019 to run a pilot project that has continued and grown since then. Late last year, following DeSmog’s repeated inquiries into Dye’s allegations, the OPUC re-opened a previously closed investigation into NW Natural’s gas meter testing program and billing practices. That investigation remains ongoing, according to agency spokesperson Kandi Young.In addition, agency staff are currently weighing whether to expand their inquiries into the meter accuracy programs and “testing, correction and refunding processes” for all utilities operating in the state.
New York state to forgive $672 million of overdue gas, electric bills (Reuters) - New York state will forgive $672 million worth of unpaid gas and electric utility bills from the pandemic era for about half a million customers, in what the governor's office said was "the largest utility customer financial assistance program in state history." The relief is expected to prevent potential service terminations for more than 478,000 residential customers and about 56,000 small businesses, while avoiding significant downgrades to their credit, the office of Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement. The debt-forgiveness program by the New York State Public Service Commission (PSC) will give one-time credits to all residential non-low-income customers and small-commercial customers for any utility arrears through May 1, 2022. Utilities provided a record $101 million in this round of pandemic debt relief, following a $36 million contribution to a similar $567 million program in June last year to help low-income customers pay off past electric and gas bills, the statement said. Hochul also launched a pilot program that guarantees its low-income participants will not pay over 6% of their incomes on electricity, and set aside an additional $200 million in discounts on electric bills for over 800,000 New York state residents who make less than $75,000 who are ineligible under the current discount program. Last week, Hochul said during her 2023 State of the State address that New York will implement a program that sets an annual cap on pollution throughout its economy to lower emissions while aiming to bring in more than $1 billion a year.
Hochul's chief judge pick rejected by her own party in stunning defeat -— New York’s governor suffered a historic defeat in just the first few weeks of her new administration. Gov. Kathy Hochul on Wednesday became the first governor to lose her bid to appoint the state’s top judge, a major rebuke by progressives, unions and her Democratic colleagues in Senate. Hochul, who barely won election to a full term in November, plowed ahead into Wednesday’s confirmation hearing despite aggressive opposition. She was met with fierce resistance from fellow Democrats. It’s the first time New York lawmakers have denied a gubernatorial nominee to the state Court of Appeals under the current system that started in the 1970s. The committee’s decision to reject Hector LaSalle after a bruising confirmation hearing means that the full Senate will not consider her choice. The decision, which failed by one vote, is an extraordinary blow to Hochul as the six-month legislative session gets underway. Hochul swiftly dismissed the committee’s integrity and authority and called for a full Senate vote. The fight pits the moderate governor against the Democratic majority in the Legislature and its allies who rallied against LaSalle, who would have been the state’s first Latino chief judge of the state Court of Appeals. LaSalle’s opponents, despite his backing among Latino leaders and Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries, were able to outflank Hochul, who has left open the possibility of suing to bring her pick to the Senate floor for a vote. “While this was a thorough hearing, it was not a fair one, because the outcome was predetermined,” Hochul said in a statement. “Several senators stated how they were going to vote before the hearing even began — including those who were recently given seats on the newly expanded Judiciary Committee. While the Committee plays a role, we believe the Constitution requires action by the full Senate.”
New York Mayor says "no room" in his city for migrants (Reuters) - The mayor of New York traveled to the Mexican border city of El Paso on Sunday and declared that "there is no room in New York" for busloads of migrants being sent to America's most populous city. Eric Adams, a Democrat, was also critical of the administration of Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden, saying "now is the time for the national government to do its job" about the immigrant crisis at America's southern border. The visit of a New York mayor to a southern border city about the issue of immigrants is unprecedented. Busloads of migrants have been shipped north to New York and other cities by Republican run states. That has exacerbated a housing crisis in New York and a worsening homeless crisis in the city. Adams's trip to El Paso comes after he said the migrant influx into New York could cost the city as much as $2 billion, at a time when the city is already facing a major budget shortfall.
Colorado begins enrollment for universal preschool – Colorado parents can now submit applications for the state’s new free preschool program. The program, which is set to officially launch next summer, offers a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 15 hours of free preschool a week for most 4-year-olds in the state. Colorado officials expect the $335 million program will serve 30,000 4–year-olds during its inaugural year with hopes of enrolling more in the future. That number translates to 1,500 classrooms with 20 students each. The current Colorado Preschool Program serves 18,636 children or about 1,165 classrooms with 16 children each. Colorado is partially funding the replacement preschool program with a nicotine tax which voters approved in 2020 and will start this fall. Under the program, some 4-year-olds will be eligible for up to 30 hours a week of free preschool while some 3-year-olds will be able to receive 10 hours a week, according to the Colorado Department of Early Childhood. Parents can apply for the program, also called universal pre-k, the year before their child is eligible to enter kindergarten. Colorado is a recent addition to the growing list of states rolling out universal pre-k programs. Some states say that they offer a universal pre-k program but funding issues and enrollment caps prevent all eligible children from being served, according to EducationWeek. Usually, for a universal pre-k program to be considered truly universal it must be serving at least 70 percent of 4-year-olds enrolled in kindergarten.
North Dakota weighs ban of 'sexually explicit' library books - Books containing “sexually explicit” content — including depictions of sexual or gender identity — would be banned from North Dakota public libraries under legislation that state lawmakers began considering Tuesday. The GOP-dominated state House Judiciary Committee heard arguments but did not take a vote on the measure, which applies to visual depictions of “sexually explicit” content and proposes up to 30 days imprisonment for librarians who refuse to remove the offending books. The proposal comes amid a national wave of Republican-backed laws to ban books that feature LGBTQ subject matter — though usually those bills have been limited to school libraries, not public ones. Supporters of the bill said it would preserve children’s innocence and reduce their exposure to pornography. But critics said the measure is “steeped in discrimination” and would allow government censorship of material that is not actually obscene. House Majority Leader Mike Lefor, of Dickinson, introduced the bill and said public libraries currently contain books that have “disturbing and disgusting” content, including ones that describe virginity as a silly label and assert that gender is fluid. Lefor argued that a child’s exposure to such content has been associated with addiction, poor self esteem, devalued intimacy, increasing divorce rates, unprotected sex among young people and poor well-being — though did he did not offer any evidence to support such claims.
2nd Colorado library closes due to meth contamination (AP) — For the second time in a month, a Colorado library has closed its doors to clean up methamphetamine contamination. Officials in the Denver suburb of Englewood shut down the city library last week within a couple of hours of getting test results Wednesday showing that the contamination in the facility’s restrooms exceeded state thresholds, city spokesman Chris Harguth said. Other spaces such as countertops also tested positive for lower levels of the drug and will require specialized cleaning, he said. The larger-scale remediation work will include removing tainted surfaces, walls, ductwork and exhaust fan equipment. The city of about 33,000 just south of Denver decided to test for the drug after officials in the nearby college town of Boulder closed its main library after finding meth contamination, Harguth said. It is the latest example of the balancing act urban libraries have to navigate between making their facilities be welcoming to all while keeping them clean and safe. When a rash of overdoses in libraries were reported in the mid 2010s as the opioid crisis grew across the United States, some libraries were equipped with the antidote Naloxone, known by the brand name Narcan.
Kentucky teen back in school after allegedly penning 'kill list' -A 14-year-old Kentucky student who allegedly penned a “kill last” last year was allowed to return to school this month — infuriating parents who voiced concern for the safety of their own children. Dozens of fuming parents let their voices be heard during a recent school board meeting where they blasted the district’s decision to readmit the teen student to Conner High School.The student allegedly made threats against other classmates last year when he was in middle school. He was charged and booted from school, before the school welcomed him back this year, according to reports. The son of the principal at Conner High School, where the teen suspect returned, was even reportedly threatened.One parent said at the meeting he was devastated when he found out the student was back. “As a father of a child on the active kill list, my statements will reflect my opinions based on the information I received from Conner High School,” father Rob Bidleman said Thursday, according to WLWT. A school board meeting last week led to dozens of parents coming out to express concern.FOX 19“When I received a call from the principal, it was emotionally devastating. All I could think about was my child in danger when they did nothing wrong.”Another parent said the student was still a threat and it’s unfair to students who were on the list to be in the same building as him.“Whatever help he has gotten, he is still a threat to be in an environment which fostered him to want to do a mass shooting and make a list of our students of Conner Middle School that are now at Conner High School,” said mother Deanne Corbin, according to the news outlet.The student, who was not identified, was charged last year with second-degree terroristic threats, WLWT reported. Allegations against the student came to light in November 2021 after a school resource officer was informed of a notebook that had specific acts of violence in it and identified individuals, WXIX reported, citing police.
Florida nixes African American studies course, claims it ‘lacks educational value’ - — Florida is barring high school students from taking a new advanced placement course on African American studies over concerns the lessons run “contrary” to state law and that it “significantly lacks educational value.” In the state’s latest crackdown on how race is taught in schools, Florida education officials rejected the course from being implemented in classrooms as the College Board this year launches a pilot program for its development. The Florida Department of Education left the door open for possibly accepting the course eventually, but only if the content is tweaked to meet state guidelines. “In the future, should College Board be willing to come back to the table with lawful, historically accurate content, FDOE will always be willing to reopen the discussion,” state education officials wrote in a Jan. 12 letter to the organization, first reported by National Review. The College Board conducts the SAT exams and advance placement programs.Florida’s education agency, in its decision, doesn’t spell out exactly which law the course is violating, but the state in 2022 passed the “Stop WOKE” act that regulates lessons on race and gender in the classroom.That legislation, FL HB 7 (22R), or the Individual Freedom Act, was passed by Florida’s Republican-led Legislature to expand state anti-discrimination laws and prohibit schools and companies from leveling guilt or blame to students and employees based on race or sex. It created new protections for students and workers, including that a person should not be instructed to “feel guilt, anguish, or any other form of psychological distress” due to their race, color, sex or national origin.Gov. Ron DeSantis, who championed the “Stop WOKE” act, has sought to reshape how children are taught in Florida. His Education Departmentpreviously rejected math textbooks over “impermissible” content, including teachings on critical race theory and DeSantis vigorously defended a law that bans educators from leading classroom discussions on sexual orientation or gender identity for kids in kindergarten through third grade. He also usedhis influence and party cash to support dozens of conservatives running for local school boards.The move is part of a push by Florida conservatives to root out traces of “wokeness” in education, efforts that are on track to continue during the 2023 Legislative session, which begins in March. Florida, for example, is now is gearing up to scrutinize diversity, equity and inclusion programs in higher education.
Florida schools will not offer AP African American Studies course (Reuters) - Florida will not allow high school students to take a new Advanced Placement (AP) class in African American Studies, saying in a letter to College Board, the nonprofit that develops the courses, that the pilot version "lacks educational value." The letter to the educational nonprofit - which runs the Advanced Placement Program - was the latest move by the conservative administration of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis to criticize and even outlaw some educational efforts about racism and slavery. The College Board administers the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) and Advanced Placement tests that help students gain college credit while in high school. It is developing its first African American Studies course through a pilot program at 60 high schools. "As presented, the content of this course is inexplicably contrary to Florida law and significantly lacks educational value," reads the Jan. 12 letter by Florida's Office of Articulation and posted on Twitter by an ABC News journalist. Florida is one of several states that have banned public schools from teaching "Critical Race Theory," an academic framework that teaches "racism is more than the result of individual bias and prejudice. It is embedded in laws, policies and institutions that uphold and reproduce racial inequalities," according to the NAACP. Some conservatives view teaching this as inaccurate and harmful. In its letter, the Florida Department of Education (FDOE) did not indicate how the interdisciplinary course, which draws on literature, the arts, political science and other disciplines, broke state law or lacked educational value. However, the letter went on to say that the state might reconsider its stance should the content of the course change. "In the future, should College Board be willing to come back to the table with lawful, historically accurate content, FDOE will always be willing to reopen the discussion," the letter said. The move sparked swift backlash among some civil rights activists and Democratic lawmakers who said it was discriminatory. "Ron DeSantis wants to pretend that Black history isn’t American history. Leaders like him are the reason why Florida has seen a huge surge in hate crimes and acts of racism over the last two years," said newly elected Florida congressman Maxwell Alejandro Frost.
Indiana University student stabbed in head for 'being Chinese' - An unsuspecting Indiana University student was repeatedly stabbed in the head on a bus Wednesday for “being Chinese,” police said.Billie Davis, 56, allegedly told cops she targeted the student in Bloomington for no other reason than her race. The 18-year-old student “would be one less person to blow up our country,” Davis allegedly told police, according to court documents obtained by WRTV.Davis — who was seen smirking in a mugshot –was originally only charged with battery until hospital workers found seven stab wounds on the victim’s head.Police re-interviewed Davis Thursday, who then allegedly admitted to using a folding knife in the racially-charged attack, and charged her with attempted murder. It’s unclear if she will also be charged with a hate crime.The attack was completely unprovoked, police said.The student, who police did not name but was identified as an Indiana University student, told officers she tried to exit the bus at 4:45 p.m. Wednesday, but was bludgeoned by a stranger she had not interacted with during the bus ride.Davis spontaneously struck as the student waited for the doors to open, police allege.As her victim stayed at the scene bleeding, Davis then walked off the bus and away from the scene, footage reviewed by police show.A witness followed Davis in order to give her location to cops.Davis is being held at Monroe County Jail on a $100,000 surety bond and $1,000 cash bond, according to online court records.
At NCAA Convention, Athletes Oppose Trans Intrusion In Women's Sports - The NCAA convention in San Antonio had some unwelcome publicity on Thursday, in the form of dozens of protesters speaking out against the collegiate athletics organization's insertion of transgender athletes into women's competition. Among the demonstrators against NCAA's policies was former Kentucky Wildcat swimmer Riley Gaines, who had to compete against transgender athlete Lia Thomas, the University of Pennsylvania Quaker who was crowned the NCAA women's champion in the 500-yard freestyle. “Today, we intend to personally tell the NCAA to stop discriminating against female athletes by handing them a petition that we have garnered nearly 10,000 signatures on in just a couple of days,” said Gaines. The NCAA has allowed transgender athletes to cross gender lines since 2010. Full implementation of a 2022 update of that policy was set to happen by August 2023, but, amid growing pushback from women and those with empathize with them, the NCAA Board of Governors his week opted to delay it to the 2023-24 academic year "to address operational considerations." “I want to show the NCAA their discrimination against female athletes like me does not go unnoticed," protestor and former Lee University volleyball player Macy Petty told Daily Caller. "I will not stand by as they allow biological men to take over female athletics.” Petter had to compete against a trans athlete in USA Volleyball qualifiers. While Thursday's action against the NCAA's transgender policies consisted of speeches and signs, opponents of the status quo are likely to take the NCAA to court with the aim of proving its policies violate Title IX, the legislation that, among other things, requires that female collegiate athletes be afforded the same athletic opportunities as men at the same school.
Multiple Young Athletes And Former Athletes Died Suddenly This Past Month - Former Alabama Broncos star running back Ahmaad Galloway died suddenly this week at age 42. Galloway was an eighth-grade English teacher at Compton-Drew Middle School in St. Louis, Missouri. When Galloway did not show up for work, the school contacted authorities. Police conducted a welfare check and found the former football star dead in his apartment. The cause of death has not yet been made public.. “There wasn’t anything disrupted at Ahmaad’s apartment, so we are thinking that it could have been a medical issue.”His passing is just one among a flurry of sudden fatalities in the past year among athletes and former athletes in particular, occurring at relatively young ages. In the majority of deaths, heart failure or circulatory failure is found to be the culprit.Jordan Brister, 18, died Sunday, Jan. 8, after suffering a cardiac arrest on Jan. 3 during the school day at Amplus Academy in Las Vegas, according to a statement by the school shared by NBC affiliate KSNV. He was found unresponsive in the school bathroom after attending gym class, his family told KSNV.According to local reports from Campbell County, 17-year-old Max Sorenson died of a “medical event” at his home Monday, December 26. Campbell County Coroner Paul Wallem said that following the medical incident at his home, the high school basketball player was rushed to the Campbell County Memorial Hospital in Gillette, Wyoming.However, despite efforts from the doctors, he was pronounced deceased.Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) fighter Victoria 'The Prodigy' Lee has tragically died last week at just 18 years old, of a medical condition which has not yet been revealed to the public.A 16-year-old girl in Las Vegas has died after “suffering a medical episode during an athletic event according to a message sent to families,” reported KSNV, the NBC affiliate in Las Vegas. The student has been identified as 16-year-old Ashari Hughes. The medical emergency occurred Jan. 5 during a flag football game, according to The Las Vegas Review-Journal. The newspaper also reported that Hughes collapsed during her team’s home game against Valley High School. She was taken to the hospital and died later that night. The list goes on and on.
Faculty at University of Illinois at Chicago to strike over pay and support for student mental health - Negotiations between the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) and UIC United Faculty (UICUF) continue to be deadlocked over the question of pay raises and resources to address student mental health issues. Following what had previously been the final scheduled bargaining session on January 12, negotiators for the union and university administration have agreed to sit down for an additional meeting Monday to try to work out a deal to avert a strike set to begin on Tuesday, January 17. The 900 members of UIC United Faculty, which includes full-time tenure track (TT) and non-tenure track (NTT) faculty, except for those in the colleges of medicine, law, dentistry and pharmacy, have been working without contracts since August. The results of a mid-November strike vote indicated overwhelming support for the action. Out of 77 percent of faculty voting, 97 percent voted to strike. The issue of pay has become a major issue for UIC faculty as a result of years of essentially stagnant wages under previous contracts. The last deal, which was in force from 2018 through 2022, included a yearly increase of only 2 percent to the overall faculty salary pool. This sum was to be distributed on the basis of “merit,” leading to situations in which some faculty received much higher raises than others. To make up for the resulting disparities, a meagre 2 percent was added to address “compression and equity” issues. Due to recent inflation, which saw year-over-year jumps of 4.7 percent and 8 percent in 2021 and 2022, many faculty have effectively had their pay raises from the last contract completely reversed. The university is well aware that faculty pay has declined, particularly when compared to other institutions. The University of Illinois’ fiscal year 2023 budget request to the state noted that its analyses of faculty salaries “reveal that each of our three universities lags its peers in terms of faculty salary.” Despite this, the university has offered increases to the merit and compression/equity pools of only 5 percent in the first year and 3.5 percent for the second year, which will not make up the ground lost in previous years. The university administration is also offering faculty earning less than $70,000 per year a one-time payment of $3,000 and $1,500 to those earning more than that. Although the university had originally proposed a four-year contract, according to the union, the administration is now seeking a shorter two-year deal. UICUF originally proposed increases in the salary pools amounting to 7 percent and 8 percent in the first two years, still completely inadequate to make up for years of flat salaries and inflation. The union also sought a $3,000 per year across-the-board permanent increase in salary for all faculty. Another sticking point on pay relates to minimum salaries, with the union proposing $61,875 per year for NTT faculty and $76,000 for TT faculty, compared to the administration’s proposal of $52,000 and $67,600, respectively. Notably, as part of a long-standing trend in higher education of cutting funding for tenure-track faculty, NTT faculty members comprise around half the total. These minimum salaries amount to nearly poverty wages in the expensive Chicago region. This is especially true for the many faculty who have accrued large student loans during their advanced educations. These minimums are also lower than the minimum salaries for faculty at the City Colleges of Chicago (CCC) and Chicago Public Schools (CPS). On December 7, UIC faculty union officials acknowledged that in a bid to settle the contract, “We made significant concessions, including a step down in our salary demands.” The university administration, however, has remained intransigent. The university’s Board of Trustees, all of whom have been appointed by billionaire Democratic Governor JB Pritzker or his Republican billionaire predecessor Bruce Rauner, represents the interests of the state’s largest corporations and financial aristocracy. They are acting fully in accord with the strategy outlined by the US Federal Reserve to smother wage growth under the guise of fighting inflation and remaining within the austerity limits of the university’s budget. Faculty are also facing increased workloads because they are helping students cope with mental health issues. They are seeking “a minimum level of mental health care” for students, as well as free screenings for mental health and neuropsychological conditions on par with those offered at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
“I want them to keep on fighting!”: University of Illinois faculty begin strike with widespread student support- Hundreds of faculty at the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) went on strike Tuesday demanding higher pay, better working conditions and support for mental health for students.The walkout by UIC faculty is part of a growing strike movement among workers globally against the impact of inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, with an Oxfam report recently describing “an explosion of inequality” in the midst of the pandemic. The rebellion of UIC faculty follows a spate of strikes in higher education in the past few months, including the six-week strike of 48,000 University of California academic workers late last year and the strike of 1,600 part-time faculty at The New School in New York City.A striking non-tenure track faculty member told the World Socialist Web SiteTuesday, “We’re striking for higher minimum salary increases for non-tenure track and tenure track and mental health support for students. A lot of the first-year students are taught by non-tenure track positions, and it’s important we’re paid fairly. For non-tenure track, there’s the reappointment notification, so that people don’t know a month before classes start that they may not have a job next year.”He added, “I’m pretty new to the university. I’ve been here for two years. I really respect the faculty that have been through the pandemic. They taught all the classes online and still keep teaching and keep the university going. There was little credit given to them. Enrollment stayed high at UIC, but now we’re being offered salary increases that don’t keep up with inflation. Salary ranges should keep up with changing times.”Faculty and graduate workers at UIC have faced more than a decade of wage stagnation, with minimal salary increases during years of austerity and attacks on higher education following the 2008-2009 financial crisis, including by former billionaire Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and under the current billionaire Democratic Governor JB Pritzker. While billions are shelled out for war spending by the Biden administration and both parties, massive cuts are being prepared in education, health care and essential social services.In their strike, UIC faculty also face the Democratic Party-controlled University of Illinois Board of Trustees, overseen by Pritzker, who like many Illinois billionaires saw his wealth increase during the pandemic.The latest proposal by the UIC administration is for a four-year contract with a minimum salary of $58,405 for non-tenured faculty and $70,305 for tenured-track faculty, along with a one-time bonus of $4,000. The UIC United Faculty (UICUF), an affiliate of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), is proposing a minimum salary of $61,000 for non-tenured faculty and $77,000 for tenured faculty, along with a $3,000 base salary increase.“Management has offered over four years a total of 17 percent, which averages to 4.2 percent, far below inflation,” a faculty member on strike said. She added, “A lot of senior faculty have also had years of compression,” i.e., the same or lower pay than their newly hired colleagues. The union is calling for an 18 percent pay increase over three years, averaging around 6 percent annually.
Criticizing Israel: Letter to the President of Harvard University regarding Kenneth Roth --Dear President Bacow: We write on behalf of the Middle East Studies Association of North America (MESA) and its Committee on Academic Freedom to express our grave concern about the July 2022 decision by Douglas Elmendorf, dean of faculty of the Harvard Kennedy School, to reject the appointment of Kenneth Roth as a senior fellow of the school’s Carr Center for Human Rights Policy. This politically motivated decision is an egregious violation of the principles of academic freedom and an insult to one of the world’s leading human rights organizations. It also makes a mockery of Harvard’s avowed commitment to human rights.MESA was founded in 1966 to promote scholarship and teaching on the Middle East and North Africa. The preeminent organization in the field, the Association publishes the International Journal of Middle East Studies and has nearly 2,400 members worldwide. Kenneth Roth served as executive director of Human Rights Watch (HRW) from 1993 to 2022 and is highly regarded within the international human rights community. Given his experience and stature, his appointment as a senior fellow at the Carr Center was enthusiastically welcomed by the center’s leaders and affiliates. However, according to a recent article in The Nation, Dean Elmendorf barred Roth from taking up this position because some of the Harvard Kennedy School’s donors deemed Roth and HRW overly critical of Israel’s policies and actions toward the Palestinians subject to its control. These donors were apparently especially unhappy about HRW’s conclusion, in an April 2021 report, that certain Israeli policies and practices in the Palestinian territories it occupies amount to the crimes against humanity of apartheid and persecution.Under Roth’s leadership HRW released numerous reports documenting and denouncing violations of human rights by governments around the world, including governments and organizations in the Middle East and North Africa, among them Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian Authority, Hamas and Hizbullah as well as Israel. Nonetheless, apparently bowing to pressure from donors who find any criticism of Israel unacceptable and illegitimate, Dean Elmendorf told a Kennedy School faculty member that Roth would not be permitted to take up the fellowship because of his and HRW’s alleged “anti-Israel bias.” It is clear that Kenneth Roth was denied this appointment because under his leadership HRW insisted on holding Israel to the same standards that it holds other governments. We note that the same accusation of “anti-Israel bias” has been directed at other respected human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and B’Tselem, Israel’s leading human rights organization, both of which have documented that country’s violations of Palestinians’ human rights. It is clear that a double standard is at work here whereby those who regard themselves as defenders of Israel use their influence to try to ensure that that country is not held to commonly accepted standards of human rights – and that those who insist on doing so are sanctioned and vilified. We regard Dean Elmendorf’s decision as a violation of the Harvard Kennedy School’s avowed commitment to academic freedom and as a crude politicization of an academic appointment that should have been made strictly on the basis of merit. Submitting to the dictates of donors with a political agenda also undermines the school’s claims to independence and integrity. We therefore call on Dean Elmendorf to rescind his earlier decision and approve the appointment of Kenneth Roth as a senior fellow of the Carr Center. We also call on you as president of Harvard University to conduct a thorough and transparent investigation of how and why Dean Elmendorf made his decision and to take all necessary measures to ensure that politically motivated donors are not permitted to influence academic appointments.
Harvard school reverses course, will extend fellowship to human rights advocate (Reuters) - The prestigious Kennedy School at Harvard University said on Thursday it has reversed a decision to not award a fellowship to the former head of Human Rights Watch (HRW) after coming under fire earlier this month over the move.The school's Carr Center for Human Rights Policy last year approached Kenneth Roth, who served as HRW's executive director from 1993 to 2022, and agreed on the terms of a fellowship, according to both Roth and the Carr Center. The fellowship was subject to approval by Kennedy School Dean Douglas Elmendorf. Kathryn Sikkink, a human rights academic at the Kennedy School, told The Nation magazine earlier this month that Elmendorf told her he rejected the appointment because of what he called HRW's "anti-Israel bias." In an email to the community on Thursday, shared by a Harvard Kennedy School spokesperson, Elmendorf said he believed he had made an error. "In the case of Mr. Roth, I now believe that I made an error in my decision not to appoint him as a Fellow at our Carr Center for Human Rights... We will extend an offer to Mr. Roth to serve as a Fellow. I hope that our community will be able to benefit from his deep experience in a wide range of human rights issues," Elmendorf said. The decision not to award a fellowship to Roth, first reported by The Nation, drew criticism from some alumni, the American Civil Liberties Union and HRW itself. Freedom of expression advocacy group PEN America said the decision "raises serious questions about the credibility of the Harvard program itself." Roth in a statement posted on Twitter on Thursday said he was "thrilled" that Elmendorf had rescinded his decision. But, he said who was behind the original decision remained an issue unaddressed by Elmendorf and said he was worried about academic freedom. "The problem of people penalized for criticizing Israel is not limited to me, and most scholars and students have no comparable capacity to mobilize public attention," Roth said. "How is the Kennedy School, and Harvard, going to ensure that this episode conveys a renewed commitment to academic freedom rather than just exceptional treatment for one well-known individual?" Some pro-Israel groups, including prominent Jewish organizations in the United States like the American Jewish Committee, have said HRW and other rights groups have shown bias against Israel in their reporting, in particular by labeling the treatment of Palestinians and the decades-long Israeli military occupation of the West Bank as "apartheid," as HRW did in 2021.
Harvard Medical School announces withdrawal from U.S. News & World Report rankings - Harvard University Medical School is withdrawing from U.S. News & World Report’s annual rankings of top medical schools in the country based on “philosophical” issues with the list. Dean George Daley said in a message to members of the medical school community on Tuesday that he recognizes the issues educational leaders have had with the methodology that the rankings use to evaluate schools, but the decision is based on the “principled belief that rankings cannot meaningfully reflect the high aspirations for educational excellence, graduate preparedness, and compassionate and equitable patient care that we strive to foster in our medical education programs.” He said rankings create “perverse” incentives for academic institutions to report misleading or inaccurate data, set policies designed to raise their rankings instead of other objectives and divert financial aid toward high-performing students instead of those with a financial need. The decision comes as U.S. News & World Report has faced criticism from several academic institutions, including Harvard Law School, over its system of ranking universities’ programs. Harvard and Yale’s law schools both announced in November that they would end their participation in the rankings. They attacked the rankings’ methodology, noting that it includes how much debt students have, and said it disincentivizes providing need-based financial aidA few other law schools have joined them in withdrawing from the rankings.U.S. News said earlier this month that it will make changes to how it ranks law schools, including placing less emphasis on peer assessment reviews and more on schools offering fellowships to students pursuing public service.
US Department of Education publishes plan to revise income-based student loan payments - The Biden administration and the Department of Education (DOE) have released a proposal to overhaul student loan payment plans. The Revised Pay As You Earn (REPAYE) program would be extensively restructured to reduce monthly payments for student loan borrowers as well as the time needed to qualify for loan forgiveness for some. The proposal comes as the Biden administration’s much-touted plan to forgive a portion of the massive debt burden on students remains blocked in the courts, a situation accepted by the Democratic Party without any opposition. It also coincides with a mounting crisis in the vast student loan market that is placing severe strains on the financial system. The current REPAYE plan requires borrowers to pay 10 percent of their discretionary income each month, defined as income minus 150 percent of the poverty line ($20,400 a year), with the possibility of qualifying for forgiveness of the remaining amount after 20 years for undergraduate loans and 25 years for graduate loans. Under the proposed revisions, the monthly payments would be reduced to 5 percent of discretionary income for undergraduate and 10 percent for graduate loans. Any combination of both would result in a percentage based on a weighted average of the two. In addition, the discretionary income adjustment would be raised to 225 percent of the federal poverty line ($30,500), and those making less than $30,500 as an individual or $62,400 as a family of four would not have to pay any money towards their loan. Any borrowers at least 75 days in delinquency on their loans would be automatically enrolled in the program and borrowers who have defaulted on their loans would be eligible for the first time to enroll in REPAYE. The most significant changes to REPAYE will be in the time it takes to qualify for forgiveness and in regards to interest payments on loans. Those with $12,000 or less in loans would be granted an expedited path to loan forgiveness after 10 years instead of 20. Every $1,000 dollars above $12,000 would add an extra year to the qualification requirement, capping out at the current maximum of 20 years for undergraduates and 25 years for graduates. Arguably the most notable change is in interest payment requirements. A common complaint of issuers of income-based payment plans is that the monthly payment often fails to cover the interest on the loan, which typically runs around 5 percent, but can reach as high as 6.54 percent for graduate loans and 7.54 percent for parent PLUS loans. The impact of interest on loan payments is so onerous that many borrowers, even after years of regular payments, still have tens of thousands of dollars in outstanding loans, or even owe more than when they took out the loan.
Pregnant women with COVID-19 face 7 times higher risk of dying, new study finds - More than 400 million babies were born worldwide during the first three years of the pandemic. Although there are no reliable figures on how many women have been infected during pregnancy with the virus that causes COVID-19, a new study finds that those who do face a seven times increased risk of dying.The analysis indicates that SARS-CoV-2 infection increases the risk of “maternal death, severe maternal morbidities and neonatal morbidity.” Research published this week in BMJ Global Health finds that pregnant women who contract COVID-19 are also at three times greater risk of being admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The study also suggests that COVID-19 during pregnancy increases the risk that the baby will need intensive care. People who need intensive care are also more likely to die.Emily R. Smith, assistant professor of global health at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health and lead author of the study, said in a statement, “This study provides the most comprehensive evidence to date suggesting that COVID-19 is a threat during pregnancy.” She added, “Our findings underscore the importance of COVID-19 vaccination for all women of childbearing age.”Hundreds of millions of women of childbearing age remain unvaccinated. In the industrialized world, pregnant women are not being vaccinated due to a combination of government “let it rip” policies and the promotion of anti-scientific theories that vaccines will harm the mother or unborn fetus. In poorer countries, vaccines are not available largely due to logistics and the unprofitability of providing them. Smith and her colleagues brought together individual patient data from 12 studies involving more than 13,000 pregnant women (1,942 COVID-19 positive, 11,194 COVID-19 negative). The studies involved data from China-Hong Kong, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United States, Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Republic of Congo, Ghana and Nigeria. Prior analyses based on published data have included limited data from low-income countries.Researchers’ key findings of meta-analysis of this patient data shows that, in addition to an elevated risk of death and being admitted to an ICU, compared to uninfected pregnant women, pregnant women with COVID-19 infection were at:
- About 15 times higher risk of needing ventilator treatment, due to COVID-19’s effect on the ability to breathe
- About 23 times higher risk of developing pneumonia, a potentially life-threatening complication of COVID-19
- More than 5 times higher risk of thromboembolic disease, or blood clots, which can cause pain, swelling and other life-threatening complications.
COVID-19 associated with fetal brain hemorrhages --New research from the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN) at King's College London has found evidence of small hemorrhages in the brain tissue of fetuses during the peak of COVID-19 cases in the UK. The research, published in Brain, found that the hemorrhages are linked to a reduction in blood vessel integrity. The cause of these hemorrhages is unclear, however possible explanations might be as a direct consequence of the infection or an indirect consequence of the maternal immune response. The study suggests that COVID-19 might affect the fetal brain during the earliest stages of gestation, highlighting a need for further study into the potential impact on subsequent neurological development. The researchers studied 26 samples of human fetal tissue with observed hemorrhages from a total of 661 samples collected between July 2020 and April 2022. It was established that the COVID-19 virus was present in all of the hemorrhagic samples. The majority of the hemorrhagic samples came from donated fetal tissue between the late first and early second trimester of gestation—a particularly important period of human fetal brain development during which the tight junctions between endothelial cells of the blood vessels increase to form the blood brain barrier, the semipermeable barrier that protects the brain from foreign substances. Upon further study, the integrity of the blood vessels within the hemorrhagic samples was found to be considerably lower than the non-infected samples, ultimately providing an explanation as to why bleeds could be seen in the samples. "While hemorrhages do occasionally occur in developing brains, it is extremely unusual for there to be this many instances within a 21 month period. It is now of the utmost importance that we follow up with children that were prenatally exposed to COVID-19 so that we can establish if there are any long-lasting neurodevelopmental effects,"
More than 1,300 nursing homes had COVID infection rates of at least 75 percent in 2020: HHS - More than 1,300 nursing homes in the U.S., most of them for-profit facilities, experienced extremely high COVID-19 infection rates in 2020, according to a new report from the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) for the Department of Health and Human Services. For the OIG’s study, the agency took Medicare claims data to find nursing homes with beneficiaries who tested positive for COVID-19. The study looked at 15,086 nursing homes across the country. “Nursing homes had a surge of COVID-19 cases during the spring of 2020 and a greater surge during the fall, well after they were known to be vulnerable. More than 1,300 nursing homes had extremely high infection rates — 75 percent or more of their Medicare beneficiaries — during these surges,” the OIG said. Nursing homes with extremely high infection rates also saw rises in their overall mortality. The report noted demographic differences across the two surges that were observed. During the first surge in cases, urban nursing homes were more likely to have a high number of cases, while rural ones were likely to have a high rate of cases in the second surge. In both surges that the OIG analyzed, for-profit nursing homes accounted for a “disproportionate” number of locations with extreme infection rates. The OIG’s survey did not detect a lack of infection controls among the majority of nursing homes that reported extremely high infection rates, and transmission rates among counties did not always lead to high case rates in nursing homes within those counties. In light of the report’s findings, the OIG recommended that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) examine nursing staff requirements and revise them if necessary, improve on how surveys find infection control risks and target nursing homes in need of infection control intervention. According to the OIG, the CMS concurred with the first and third recommendations that were issued while neither agreeing or disagreeing with the second recommendation.
CDC & FDA Identify Preliminary COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Signal for Persons Aged 65 Years and Older | CDC --Transparency and vaccine safety are top priorities for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). U.S. government agencies use multiple, complementary safety monitoring systems to help detect possible safety signals for vaccines and other medical countermeasures as early as possible and to facilitate further investigation, as appropriate. Often these safety systems detect signals that could be due to factors other than the vaccine itself.All signals require further investigation and confirmation from formal epidemiologic studies. When one system detects a signal, the other safety monitoring systems are checked to validate whether the signal represents an actual concern with the vaccine or if it can be determined to be of no clinical relevance.Following the availability and use of the updated (bivalent) COVID-19 vaccines, CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), a near real-time surveillance system, met the statistical criteria to prompt additional investigation into whether there was a safety concern for ischemic stroke in people ages 65 and older who received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent. Rapid-response investigation of the signal in the VSD raised a question of whether people 65 and older who have received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent were more likely to have an ischemic stroke in the 21 days following vaccination compared with days 22-42 following vaccination. This preliminary signal has not been identified with the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent. There also may be other confounding factors contributing to the signal identified in the VSD that merit further investigation. Furthermore, it is important to note that, to date, no other safety systems have shown a similar signal and multiple subsequent analyses have not validated this signal:Although the totality of the data currently suggests that it is very unlikely that the signal in VSD represents a true clinical risk, we believe it is important to share this information with the public, as we have in the past, when one of our safety monitoring systems detects a signal. CDC and FDA will continue to evaluate additional data from these and other vaccine safety systems. These data and additional analyses will be discussed at the upcoming January 26 meeting of the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee.
CDC Says Stroke Concerns Over Pfizer Jab Warrant Investigation -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that data collected on the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine merits an investigation into potential stroke risks for people aged 65 and older. "Following the availability and use of the updated (bivalent) COVID-19 vaccines, CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), a near real-time surveillance system, met the statistical criteria to prompt additional investigation into whether there was a safety concern for ischemic stroke in people ages 65 and older who received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent," reads a Friday statement. "Rapid-response investigation of the signal in the VSD raised a question of whether people 65 and older who have received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent were more likely to have an ischemic stroke in the 21 days following vaccination compared with days 22-44 following vaccination," the release continues. The bivalent vaccine includes "a component of the original virus strain to provide broad protection against COVID-19 and a component of the omicron variant to provide better protection against COVID-19 caused by the omicron variant," according to the FDA. The agency notably did not see the same "preliminary signal" that prompted the investigation in the Moderna vaccine. The agency added that it's "very unlikely that the signal in VSD represents a true clinical risk," and doesn't recommend any changes to vaccine protocols at this time. According to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), who chairs the House Commmerce Committee, has called on the CDC to "rapidly investigate" the matter. "The lack of transparency over the past three years has broken Americans’ trust in our public health agencies," said McMorris in a Friday statement. "CDC and FDA have systems in place to monitor vaccine safety that have identified this preliminary signal." "Now these agencies must rapidly investigate, in an open and transparent manner, whether or not the vaccine may have contributed to the reported strokes."
CDC investigating whether Pfizer COVID vaccine increases stroke risk for people over 65 -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that a preliminary COVID-19 vaccine “safety signal” has been identified and is investigating whether the Bivalent Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine creates an increased risk of ischemic stroke in people 65 and older.In the Friday statement, the CDC said that the preliminary signal hasn’t been identified with the Bivalent Moderna COVID-19 vaccine.“Following the availability and use of the updated (bivalent) COVID-19 vaccines, CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), a near real-time surveillance system, met the statistical criteria to prompt additional investigation into whether there was a safety concern for ischemic stroke in people ages 65 and older who received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent,” the CDC said. “Rapid-response investigation of the signal in the VSD raised a question of whether people 65 and older who have received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent were more likely to have an ischemic stroke in the 21 days following vaccination compared with days 22-44 following vaccination.”According to the CDC, an ischemic stroke “occurs when blood clots or other particles block the blood vessels to the brain.”In the statement, the CDC pointed out that a large study of updated bivalent vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech “using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services database revealed no increased risk of ischemic stroke.”The agency also said that the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) managed by CDC and FDA has not seen an increase in reporting of ischemic strokes following the updated (bivalent) vaccine.In a statement to Fox News Digital, a spokesperson for Pfizer said, “Pfizer and BioNTech have been made aware of limited reports of ischemic stroke that have been observed in the CDC Vaccine Safety DataLink (VSD) database in people 65 and older following vaccination with the Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 Vaccine by Pfizer and BioNTech.”“Neither Pfizer and BioNTech nor the CDC or the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have observed similar findings across numerous other monitoring systems in the U.S. and globally and there is no evidence to conclude that ischemic stroke is associated with the use of the companies’ COVID-19 vaccines,” the spokesperson continued. “Compared to published incidence rates of ischemic stroke in this older population, the companies to date have observed a lower number of reported ischemic strokes following the vaccination with the Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccine. The CDC continues to recommend vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine for all authorized ages and indications.”The CDC isn’t recommending a change in vaccine practice.
What we know about how COVID-19 vaccines may affect menstrual cycles - Since early in the pandemic, women have reported experiencing changes in their menstruation after they got COVID-19 or were vaccinated against it.Their cycles had gotten longer, some said. Their bleeding was heavier.Research has backed up those anecdotal reports, showing COVID-19 vaccination having a temporary but noticeable impact on women’s periods and their accompanying symptoms.Here is what we know. Getting vaccinated appears to temporarily lead to longer cycles. Several recent studies have found that the length of people’s menstrual cycles can increase by up to a day immediately after they get vaccinated.A study of almost 4,000 women in the U.S. found that menstrual cycle lengths were extended by about 0.7 day after a first dose and 0.9 day after a second dose. Though the cycles were longer overall, however, researchers did not find a change in how many days women’s periods lasted.An even larger study of nearly 20,000 women in the U.K. found a similar effect on overall cycle length, but also noted that it was extended for longer in people who got both doses of a vaccine within the same menstrual cycle. For these individuals, their cycle length increased by an average of 3.7 days. A paper published on Jan. 7 in the Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy reinforced that finding with new data. The authors calculated the difference between predicted and actual menstrual cycle lengths in women in Japan before and after COVID-19 vaccination. Before women were vaccinated, the average difference was about 1.9 days. After two doses of a vaccine, it could be as high as 2.5 days. The change was more pronounced in people who received two vaccine doses within the same cycle, with that group seeing an average difference of 3.9 days. The changes may also not affect everyone uniformly beyond the disparities seen with more or fewer doses. Some people may be more likely to experience disruptions to their cycles than others. One study using long-term data from the Nurses’ Health Study based in the U.S. and Canada found that these increases in cycle length were more likely to occur for women whose periods were short, long or irregular before vaccination. The studies found that most people’s menstrual cycles reverted to normal after one or two cycles. Vaccinated women may also see other period-related symptoms more often.Another recent study indicates that women may be more likely to experience a range of symptoms accompanying their periods after getting vaccinated.The study, published December 28 in the journal Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, analyzed data from nearly 5,000 women in six Arab countries and found that vaccinated individuals had more frequent back pain, nausea, tiredness, pelvic pain, unprescribed analgesics use and passage of loose stools in connection with their menstruation compared to unvaccinated individuals.Vaccinated people also reported heavier flow and more days of bleeding, according to the paper.The authors note that more data is needed to confirm these findings.
Doctor Calls For Withdrawal Of Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines Following New Research - An American doctor is joining the calls for the withdrawal of the messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccines, pointing to new research that highlights a connection between the shots and adverse events. Dr. Joseph Fraiman, a doctor based in Louisiana who also conducts research on COVID-19 and other health issues, says it’s time to halt the administration of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines until new clinical trials prove the benefits from the vaccines outweigh the harms. The new research, including a reanalysis of the trials for the vaccines, raise concerns about whether the benefits from the vaccines outweigh the harms, according to the doctor. “I don’t see how anyone couldn’t be certain that the benefits are outweighing the harms on a population level, or even in the high-risk groups. I don’t see the evidence to support that claim,” Fraiman told The Epoch Times. “But I also can’t say that there’s evidence to support that it’s potentially more harmful, but there’s also uncertainty here. … Given that scenario, I believe that people should not be given the [vaccines] outside of a clinical trial, because we need to figure out … if their benefits outweigh harm or if harm outweighs benefits.” “The only thing that can answer that question is going to be a randomized trial,” he added. Fraiman led a study that reanalyzed the original Pfizer and Moderna trials. He and his colleagues concluded in a study published following peer review that the vaccinated were at higher risk of serious adverse events. Pfizer and Moderna did not respond to requests for comment. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which cleared the shots and has never stopped promoting them, did not return an inquiry.
Moderna And Regulatory Agencies Caught Leaving Out Bivalent Vaccine Data, Physicians Skeptical Of Timing - Moderna and regulatory agencies did not present clinical data on bivalent shots at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) committee meetings in June and September 2022, respectively. Presentations to the FDA and CDC advisory committee excluded data from Moderna’s own clinical study that showed bivalent boosters may be no better at preventing infections than previous booster shots. The data showed that among people who were never infected, 3.2 percent who took the bivalent booster got infected afterward, while 1.9 percent who took the monovalent booster were later infected. Advisors to the FDA and CDC expressed concerns of lack of transparency. Dr. William Schaffner from Vanderbilt University, a nonvoting member of the CDC advisory committee, said that he was disappointed that the data were not presented. “I think in the interests of transparency, those data should have been presented,” Schaffner said, “though they were very limited, and early data.” FDA advisor and a professor of clinical pediatrics at the University of California San Diego, Dr. Mark Sawyer, said that he understands people’s concern with the data being excluded, but not all information can be presented. The committee has limited time, so the information presented must be relevant to the big picture. “Seeing that data would not have changed my opinion about the outcome,” said Sawyer, “and it would certainly have distracted from the discussion.”
The "Great Escape" by SARS-CoV-2 XBB.1 -- In a recent article published in the Lancet Microbe, researchers in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom quantified the antigenic diversity of new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) subvariants, BQ.1.1, BM.1.1.1, and XBB.1, all derivatives of the variant of concern (VOC) Omicron, which emerged in late 2022. This exercise could prove fruitful in identifying SARS-CoV-2 strains for the next-generation coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. It is highly concerning that novel Omicron subvariants are emerging at an extraordinary rate, despite vaccination and prior infection-induced immunity in the majority of the global population. In the present study, researchers used antigenic cartography to quantify and visualize antigenic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 variants concomitantly. Researchers widely use this multi-dimensional scaling method to ascertain antigen positions vis-à-vis antiserum samples, both corresponding directly to neutralizing antibody titers.They used a SARS-CoV-2 hamster model for their experiments. First, they infected test animals with Omicron BA.5 subvariant, genetically close to Omicron BA.2, but varying by two deletions and three substitutions in the spike (S) amino acid sequence. Next, they assessed neutralizing antibody titers for all serum samples and variants, including Omicron BA.5, BM.1.1.1, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1. The updated antigenic map so generated depicted that all the Omicron subvariants were positioned farther away from the pre-Omicron subvariants, with one antigenic unit reflecting a two-fold reduction in neutralization titers. Specifically, only BA.5 and BA.2, being homologous variants, held antigenic positions within one antigenic unit, whereas the remaining Omicron subvariants held antigenic positions 2.3 to seven antigenic units farther from each other.Further, the study data revealed that Omicron BA.5 antiserum samples neutralized BA.2 and BQ.1.1 substantially but not Omicron BM.1.1.1. Strikingly, none of the serum samples effectively neutralized Omicron XBB.1. In both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) maps, Omicron XBB.1, BM.1.1.1, and BQ.1.1 were the farthest from all preceding variants, with no marked improvement with the higher number of dimensions. The researchers observed a correlation between antigen map distances and antibody neutralization titers with remarkable accuracy in antigen and serum sample positioning. Also, they noted the highest reduction in neutralizing titers for BQ.1.1, XBB.1, and BM.1.1.1, followed by Omicron BA.5 and BA.1/BA.2 compared to the D614G, the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain.To conclude, none of the novel Omicron subvariants clustered close to each other on antigenic maps. So, despite the antigenic resemblances between BQ.1.1 and BA.5, immunological imprinting might hinder BQ.1.1 neutralization by BA.5-based bivalent vaccines. Moreover, a vaccine based on any of the Omicron subvariants might weakly cross-neutralize yet-to-emerge SARS-CoV-2 variants, which might be equally or more antigenically distant. Therefore, it is crucial to continuously map new SARS-CoV-2 variants and develop an understanding of their evolutionary trajectory to inform the development of COVID-19 vaccine candidates for the future.
SARS-CoV-2 VARIANT PREVALENCE ESTIMATION USING WASTEWATER SAMPLES - Abstract: The present work describes a statistical model to account for sequencing information of SARS-CoV-2 variants in wastewater samples. The model expresses the joint probability distribution of the number of genomic reads corresponding to mutations and non-mutations in every locus in terms of the variant proportions and the joint mutation distribution within every variant. Since the variant joint mutation distribution can be estimated using GISAID data, the only unknown parameters in the model are the variant proportions. These are estimated using maximum likelihood. The method is applied to monitor the evolution of variant proportions using genomic data coming from wastewater samples collected in A Coruña (NW Spain) in the period May 2021 – March 2022. Although the procedure is applied assuming independence among the number of reads along the genome, it is also extended to account for Markovian dependence of counts along loci in the aggregated information coming from wastewater samples.
Airplane lavatories deliver new hope for the CDC’s variant hunt - The cramped, damp and poorly lit airplane toilet is among the scourges of air travel, a source of dread for young and old alike. But the deafening “swoosh” of the airplane lavatory may have finally found a higher calling: helping government scientists detect deadly viruses entering the United States. As Covid-19 cases explode in China and new viral threats loom, the Biden administration is ramping up surveillance of biological samples from international passengers arriving at U.S. airports to scan for new virus variants and other hazards to Americans’ health. Late last month, amid concerns over new variants expected to emerge from China’s massive Covid outbreak, the Biden administration expanded a program started in late 2021 to collect voluntary nasal swabs from arriving passengers to determine what Covid strains are entering the country. It set up new operations at Seattle-Tacoma International in December and LAX in early January to target more flights carrying passengers coming from China, and went from monitoring around 55 flights from Asia each day to 260. Watch: Travelers cross between Hong Kong and mainland China after border reopens At the same time, after a successful test run at New York’s JFK Airport, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is pursuing talks with airlines and port authorities to start collecting samples from long-haul international flights’ wastewater after they land. The small but growing Traveler Genomic Surveillance program, run by the CDC with a biotech firm and a company that collects samples, is seen by administration officials and public health experts as part of a revolution in biosafety infrastructure — and a critical plank of national security in the post-pandemic era. As it expands geographically and sets its sights on new pathogens, it could function as an early warning system for where and when dangerous viruses and bacteria, natural or otherwise, enter the country.
Therapeutic and vaccine-induced cross-reactive antibodies with effector function against emerging Omicron variants - Abstract: Currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants acquired convergent mutations at receptor-binding domain (RBD) hot spots. Their impact on viral infection, transmission, and efficacy of vaccines and therapeutics remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that recently emerged BQ.1.1. and XBB.1 variants bind ACE2 with high affinity and promote membrane fusion more efficiently than earlier Omicron variants. Structures of the BQ.1.1 and XBB.1 RBDs bound to human ACE2 and S309 Fab (sotrovimab parent) explain the altered ACE2 recognition and preserved antibody binding through conformational selection. We show that sotrovimab binds avidly to all Omicron variants, promotes Fc-dependent effector functions and protects mice challenged with BQ.1.1, the variant displaying the greatest loss of neutralization. Moreover, in several donors vaccine-elicited plasma antibodies cross-react with and trigger effector functions against Omicron variants despite reduced neutralizing activity. Cross-reactive RBD-directed human memory B cells remained dominant even after two exposures to Omicron spikes, underscoring persistent immune imprinting. Our findings suggest that this previously overlooked class of cross-reactive antibodies, exemplified by S309, may contribute to protection against disease caused by emerging variants through elicitation of effector functions.
Moderna says RSV vaccine is effective in older adults - Moderna’s vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was 83 percent effective at preventing lower respiratory tract disease in adults aged 60 and older in a large clinical trial, the company announced on Tuesday. Based on the results, Moderna said it intends to submit the vaccine for Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval in the first half of 2023. The announcement puts Moderna into a crowded marketplace of RSV vaccines for older adults, including giants GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer. Both companies have applied for FDA approval of their respective RSV vaccines and expect decisions in May. Moderna said the vaccine was 83.7 percent effective at preventing two key symptoms, like fever, cough or difficulty breathing. The vaccine was 82.4 percent effective at preventing severe RSV cases with three or more symptoms present, the company said. There is no vaccine for RSV in either adults or children. In healthy adults and older children, RSV typically causes mild, cold-like symptoms that go away with moderate rest and self-care. But it can result in severe illness in infants and older adults. RSV infections kill between 6,000 and 10,000 adults over age 65 every year and results in 60,000 to 120,000 hospitalizations, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RSV kills between 100 and 300 children in the U.S. each year. Like the flu, RSV season usually occurs during colder weather, though this year it hit unusually hard and early, contributing to a wave of respiratory infections that led to overwhelmed hospitals nationwide. Moderna’s RSV vaccine uses the same messenger RNA technology as the company’s COVID-19 shots. The company said its vaccine is also being tested in an ongoing early stage trial in pediatric populations.
Hybrid Covid immunity offers more cover than infection, says study - The Indian Express - Hybrid immunity — from a previous infection coupled with vaccination — offers a “higher magnitude and durability” of protection against severe Covid than an infection alone, according to a meta-analysis published in “Lancet Infectious Diseases”. The study says hybrid immunity may also help in extending the period before which a booster dose is needed, especially in the context of Omicron variants leading to a high number of breakthrough infections. It says, however, that all immunity — from infection, vaccination or vaccination coupled with infection — wanes against re-infection within months. The study is based on an analysis of 11 other studies on the protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 (Covid) infection and 15 studies on the protective effectiveness of hybrid immunity. “These results provide information that can be used to tailor guidance on the number and timing of SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations,” it says. The study shows that hybrid immunity, coupled with primary vaccine doses, was effective in preventing severe disease and hospital admission in 97.4 per cent of participants upto 12 months. The effectiveness of only hybrid immunity against re-infection stood at 41.8 per cent at 12 months. And, the effectiveness of only previous infection against severe disease and hospital admission was 74.6 per cent at 12 months. After 12 months, the study says, protection against re-infection for all forms of immunity dipped to 24.7 per cent.
Researchers find hybrid immunity is the best protection against COVID-19 == A University of Calgary research group joined forces with members of the World Health Organization (WHO) to tackle a global health question. What is the best protection against COVID-19? Analyzing data from controlled studies throughout the world, researchers discovered people with hybrid immunity are the most protected against severe illness and reinfection.Hybrid immunity occurs when someone has had at least the full series of vaccines and has a priorinfection, in any order. The study published inThe Lancet Infectious Diseases helps public policy makers understand the optimal timing of vaccinations."The results reinforce the global imperative for vaccination," says Dr. Niklas Bobrovitz, first author on the study. "A common question throughout the pandemic was whether previously infected people should also get vaccinated. Our results clearly indicate the need for vaccination, even among people that have had COVID-19."The global emergence and rapid spread of the omicron variant of concern required scientists and policymakers to reassess population protection against omicron infection and severe disease. In the study, investigators were able to look at immune protection against omicron after a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (the virus that causes COVID-19), vaccination, or hybrid immunity."Protection against hospitalization and severe disease remained above 95 percent for 12 months for individuals with hybrid immunity," says Dr. Lorenzo Subissi, MSc, Ph.D., WHO-Scientist and senior author on the study. "We know more variants are going to emerge. The study shows to reduce infection waves, vaccinations could be timed for roll-out just prior to expected periods of higher infection spread, such as the winter season."The systematic review and meta-analysis find that protection against omicron infection declines substantially by 12 months, regardless of whether you've had an infection, vaccinations, or both, which means that vaccination is the best way to periodically boost your protection and to keep down levels of infection in the population. In total, 4,268 articles were screened and 895 underwent full-text review.
Long-term systemic and mucosal SARS-CoV-2 IgA response and its association with persistent smell and taste disorders - Abstract: Current approved COVID-19 vaccines, notably mRNA and adenoviral vectored technologies, still fail to fully protect against infection and transmission of various SARS-CoV-2 variants. The mucosal immunity at the upper respiratory tract represents the first line of defense against respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and is thus critical to develop vaccine blocking human-to-human transmission. We measured systemic and mucosal Immunoglobulin A (IgA) response in serum and saliva from 133 healthcare workers from Percy teaching military hospital following a mild infection (SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan strain, n=58) or not infected (n=75), and after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (Vaxzevria®/Astrazeneca and/or Comirnaty®/Pfizer). While serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgA response lasted up to 16 months post-infection, IgA response in saliva had mostly fallen to baseline level at 6 months post-infection. Vaccination could reactivate the mucosal response generated by prior infection, but failed to induce a significant mucosal IgA response by itself. As breakthrough infections have been correlated with IgA levels, other vaccine platforms inducing a better mucosal immunity are needed to control COVID-19 infection in the future. Early post-COVID-19 serum anti-Spike-NTD IgA titer correlated with seroneutralization titers. Interestingly, its saliva counterpart positively correlated with persistent smell and taste disorders more than one year after mild COVID-19, and could potentially be used as an early prognosis biomarker.
Airway mucosa antibodies durably protect against COVID: Study --High levels of mucosal IgA antibodies in the airways protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection for at least eight months. Omicron infection generates durable mucosal antibodies, reducing the risk of re-infection. These are the findings of a study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases by researchers at Karolinska Institutet and Danderyd Hospital in Sweden. The results raise further hope for the feasibility of future nasal vaccine platforms to protect against infection. The COMMUNITY study enrolled 2,149 health care workers in the spring of 2020 at Danderyd Hospital, Sweden. Study participants and their immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 have since then been followed through regular samplings from blood and airways along with PCR screenings. A sub-study during January and February 2022 screening 338 triple-vaccinated health care workers for SARS-CoV-2 infection found that participants with high (upper quartile) mucosal IgA antibodies in the airways had half the risk of being infected with omicron compared to those with no or low levels of antibodies in the airways. The researchers have now continued to follow these participants and find the protection to be durable over at least eight months. Participants who were infected with omicron had a more than 40-fold increase in mucosal IgA antibodies, even if the infection was mild. The current follow-up study now reveals a good durability of these antibodies, and a majority of participants still have protective levels seven months after the infection. Those who were infected with the omicron variants BA.1 or BA.2 had a 90 percent lower risk of being re-infected with the omicron variant BA.5. "Antibodies in the blood protect from severe disease, but if we aim to limit infection, viral transmission and the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, we need to reinforce our immunity at the mucosal surface, which is the viral point of entry," "This is not achieved by currently employed intramuscularly-delivered vaccines. But the hope is that a nasal vaccine may generate mucosal immune responses similar to those seen after infection, and thereby block the transmission chain." The researchers have also investigated the impact of repeated infections and found that participants with a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection generated a stronger mucosal immune response to omicron breakthrough infection. "The results show us that it is possible to recall protective and durable mucosal IgA antibody responses in the airways, and that these responses increase with the number of infections. Although these findings are not surprising, they are important for the development of nasal vaccines,"
COVID endemicity: 100,000+ (mainly needless) excess deaths per year - I suspect these updates are going to be much less frequent from now on; for example, if a significant new wave is evident. That’s because, as we start our fourth year of the pandemic, the good news is that it is far less lethal than it was during its first two years. From March 2020 through March 2021, 500,000 Americans died of Covid. Another 500,000 died in the next 12 months. But since last March, only 100,000 have died so far (an average of roughly 400 per day, mainly seniors, and mainly unvaccinated): The bad news is that any hope that vaccinations would put an effective end to the pandemic - in terms of infections - is long gone. The virus has continually mutated to become more and more infectious, and far more evasive of the defenses erected both by previous exposures and by vaccinations, as the original strains through Delta were replaced by Omicron BA.1, then BA.2, then BA.2.12.1, then BA.5, and now the Alphabet soup featuring BQ.1&1.1 and XBB.1.5: This is perhaps best shown by the situation in Puerto Rico and Rhode Island, two of the very best jurisdictions for the percentage of people who are vaccinated (thin line). Despite this, both had serious waves of infections throughout 2022: One thing I considered is that perhaps COVID deaths were merely replacing deaths from influenza among the elderly. This does not appear to be the case. In 2019, the last year before COVID, the CDC estimated that there were 26,400 deaths from the flu, with a huge range of error from 19,100 to 96,800. This year so far the estimate is 27,600 with a range of error from 16,000 to 48,000. Further, here’s what flu infection levels looked like during the 2019 season: This winter, we had an even worse peak, which occurred (so far, anyway) several months earlier: But as I said at the outset, at least COVID appears to be far less lethal now than in its first two years. Here’s what hospitalizations looked like from autumn 2020 through the end of winter 2022: Hospitalizations peaked at 117,700 on January 9, 2021; and then at 154,000 on January 15, 2022. Hospitalizations appear to have just peaked again on January 3, at 47,600: Similarly, deaths peaked on January 14, 2021 at 3380; and on February 1, 2022 at 2600: As shown in the first graph above, this year deaths appear to have peaked on January 11, at 596. This is all in the face of what Biobot waste water levels suggest his been a higher level of infections that has persisted for over half a year, at a rate of roughly 1 in 1000 persons daily +/-200, as shown in the second graph at the beginning of this post. So, the good news appears to be that, just like during the first two winters of Covid, the waves have peaked as soon as the infections from Holiday social get-togethers have worked through the population. Even the super-infectious XBB.1.5 has not created a wave meaningfully bigger than BA.2.12.1 did late last spring, in terms of “real” infections, hospitalizations, or deaths. But the bad news is that we appear to be resigned to a future where perhaps 130,000 more people, most of them seniors, die in excess of what otherwise would be the case, each and every year, and most needlessly, as the percentage of the population being vaccinated has all but ground to a halt.
Louisiana and Alabama see surge in COVID-19 infections and deaths - Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, the United States government has been at the forefront of downplaying the seriousness of the deadly disease and allowing the virus to spread, initially by promoting the pseudo-science of “herd immunity” and the back-to-school/work campaign, and currently by touting the absurd lie that “the pandemic is over.” As a result of these bipartisan policies, COVID-19 has been permitted to mutate into more virulent, infectious and vaccine-resistant strains over the last three years. The latest strain, Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, accounts for at least 43 percent of all COVID-19 cases in the United States, according to Reuters. In the United States, the region hit hardest, outside densely populated areas such as the California capital of Sacramento and New York City, is the southeastern United States. The state of Louisiana is facing a surge in COVID cases and hospitalizations following the holidays. “We certainly have seen a bump coming out of the holidays,” Dr. Joe Kanter, an officer with the Louisiana Department of Health (LDH), reported Thursday. “It’s not something overly dramatic, but no question, transmission has increased from the holidays.” Hospitalizations have increased almost 60 percent over the last month, from 289 about a month ago to 456 last week. More than 60 deaths were recorded over the last seven days, compared to 14 one month prior. However, this has not swayed the state government to take action to close non-essential production and schools, or any attempt to slow or stop transmission. According to the LDH website, between January 2 and 8, 6,849 new infections and 42 deaths occurred. Total cases recorded currently stands at more than 1.5 million out of a population of 4.6 million, and total deaths in the state are 18,436. According to Kanter, geographically, coronavirus infections are spread “fairly” and “evenly.” Such language, even if it is a poor choice of words, indeed shows the intention of the ruling financial and corporate oligarchy to implement a policy of mass death via its back-to-work/school campaigns and vaccine-only strategy. The latter has been endorsed by Kanter and Louisiana’s Democratic governor, John Bel Edwards. Currently the XBB.1.5 subvariant accounts for 17 percent of infections in the region, which includes Louisiana, Arkansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. In the Northeast United States, the variant is dominating, with more than 70 percent of cases attributed to it. “I would totally expect it to be the dominant strand here within two to three weeks,” said Kanter. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned XBB.1.5 is the “most transmissible” variant to date.
Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 makes up nearly half of U.S. COVID cases- CDC (Reuters) - The fast-spreading Omicron XBB.1.5 is estimated to make up nearly half of U.S. COVID-19 cases, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed on Friday, putting it on track to become the dominant subvariant in the country. It is estimated to account for 49.1% of COVID cases in the country in the week ended Jan. 21, a jump from 37.2% last week. The subvariant is an offshoot of XBB, a combination of two other Omicron sub-variants, that has been rapidly gaining ground in United States, particularly in the northeast. "XBB.1.5 is an additional mutation on top of the original XBB that people think enabled it to better bind to our human cells and more easily cause an infection," said Daniel Rhoads, section head of microbiology at the Cleveland Clinic. "So I expect that it will continue to grow in the proportion of variants that are causing COVID and become predominant in United States." The World Health Organization's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said earlier this month that XBB.1.5 has been on the rise globally and identified in over 25 countries. Weekly COVID-19 infections are down after ticking slightly higher in December and early January, according to CDC data. It is still unclear if XBB.1.5 can cause its own wave of global infections, but epidemiologists say the current booster shots will offer some protection against severe symptoms, hospitalization and death. XBB.1.5. has overtaken the previously dominant Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, which were offshoots of BA.5. The two strains together accounted for 40.2% of cases in the U.S. in the week ended Jan. 21, compared with 48.8% a week ago, the CDC said.
Covid Still Killing Hundreds Of Americans Every Day As Pandemic Enters Fourth Year --Vaccines, treatments and other public health measures have helped curb the spread of Covid and keep deaths and hospitalizations down, but as the U.S. enters the fourth year of the pandemic, data shows hundreds of people still dying with the virus every day, an infectious omicron offshoot tearing across the country and dismal appetite for updated booster shots.Hundreds of people are still dying with Covid each day in 2023. The U.S. reported 3,953 Covid deaths for the week ending Wednesday,according to CDC data, an average of more than 560 deaths a day.The figure is a slight drop from the 4,209 Covid deaths reported the week before but, other than that week, the highest weekly total reported since March and comes as part of a broader upswing in deaths since late November.The seven-day average for patients in hospital with confirmed Covid was about 34,000 on Tuesday, down from around 41,000 as recently as January 7—hospitalizations began to spike in late December—but otherwise one of the highest rates since August.These figures are a long way from pandemic highs: weekly deaths peaked at more than 23,000 around this time in 2021, more than 3,000 deaths a day, and the seven-day average for hospitalized patients with confirmed Covid peaked at more than 146,000 around this time last year.But they are also a long way from pandemic lows: fewer than 2,000 deaths were recorded for each of the first three weeks of July 2021 and the seven-day average for hospitalizations briefly dipped under 10,000 in April last year for the first and only time since the CDC started reporting data in August 2020. Current levels are markedly higher than those at other points in the pandemic: for most of October and November, for example, hospitalizations hovered between 21,000 and 22,000 and there were around 320 deaths a day in November, according to CDC data.
Research review suggests long COVID may last indefinitely for some people and mimic other ailments --A small team of researchers, two from the Patient-Led Research Collaborative, the other two from the Scripps Research Translational Institute, has published a Review article in the journal Nature Reviews Microbiology suggesting that long COVID might be a bigger threat than has been realized. Prior research has shown that some people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus develop symptoms beyond the respiratory system. Patients have reported feeling deep fatigue, irregular heartbeat, numbness in extremities and even trouble with organs such as their liver or bladder. Over time, these patients have been diagnosed with long COVID, a mysterious condition without an official diagnostic description. And while a lot of research has been conducted regarding the respiratory system, including treatments and therapies, and in creating vaccines, little has been done to solve the mystery of long COVID or to treat those who claim to have it. In this new effort, the researchers took a hard look at research by a variety of groups. The authors on this new effort found evidence in prior reports suggesting that approximately 10% of people infected with COVID-19 develop long COVID and that it is most prevalent in people between the ages of 36 and 50. They also found that people who have mild cases of long COVID will likely recover from it within a year. Unfortunately, for those with more severe symptoms, the outlook is grim. They found few signs that symptoms will ever lessen. They also found that in many cases, the symptoms of long COVID become nearly indistinguishable from several other conditions, such as chronic fatigue syndrome, mast cell activation syndrome and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome. Notably, they point, out, many such symptoms are consistent with autonomic dysfunction. As one example of the difficulties facing both patients and doctors, the authors found many instances of patients suffering from long COVID who had symptoms identical to postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome. The findings suggest that these patients will live with their symptoms for the rest of their lives. They conclude by noting that women appear to be more at risk of developing persistent long COVID and face more skepticism from physicians.
For long covid fatigue, a strategy called "pacing" helps, but at a cost - What is it like to live with the chronic fatigue of long covid? It feels like dragging your body through wet cement, says Judy Schaefer, 58, a once avid hiker who lives in Seattle.It’s knowing that simple tasks, like showering or cooking dinner, will be exhausting, says Alyssa Minor, 36, a physiotherapist in Calgary.It’s trying to exercise and instead, landing in the ER, says Harry Leeming, 31, of London.Experts say the extreme fatigue experienced by many long covid patients has a name: myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME/CFS), a condition previously known as chronic fatigue syndrome. Researchers estimate that about half of people with long covid have developed ME/CFS.There is no known cure for ME/CFS, but some experts say a complicated lifestyle change can help manage some of the symptoms.It’s called “pacing.”Pacing is an “activity management” strategy, which requires people to carefully limit their daily activities, reduce their energy expenditure and track their symptoms.But pacing is difficult. It often requires scaling back on mundane tasks that most people take for granted, like rinsing dishes or chopping vegetables. And it means finding ways to reduce energy expenditure and effort — such as creating water and snack stations around the house to reduce trips to the kitchen. Even showering or picking children up from school can be debilitating for those with ME/CFS.While pacing can make a huge difference in quality of life for someone with long covid, it also comes with a cost. Pacing often means cutting back on both work and favorite activities like cooking, walking the dog or socializing with friends. And it can represent a challenging reversal for people who, until very recently, have been accustomed to leading busy, active lives.“I tell people to figure out what they can do every day without struggle,” explained Ravindra Ganesh, a physician and medical director of Mayo Clinic’s Post-COVID-19 Care Clinic.People with long covid who have tried pacing say it has helped them return to a semblance of normalcy.
As XBB.1.5 variant spreads across Canada, COVID-19 deaths hit 11-month high - As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its fourth year, the virus continues to take an immense toll on the health of the population across Canada. This state of affairs has been enabled by the capitalist ruling class’ homicidal “forever COVID” policy, which has been overseen by the Trudeau Liberal government and enforced by all provincial governments irrespective of their political affiliation. According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University published on the Our World in Data website, the rolling seven day average of COVID-19 fatalities in Canada reached 78 per day on January 12, the highest since February 28, 2022, when the Omicron first wave was cresting. Provincial government figures show that the XBB.1.5 Omicron subvariant, which has spread rapidly in the North Eastern region of the United States, particularly New York City, is now showing signs of community transmission across the country. On January 4, Alberta announced that it had identified four cases of the variant, alongside rising viral detection rates in the city of Calgary’s wastewater. Quebec announced that 2.4 percent of the infections sequenced for the last week of December were positive for the variant, while Saskatchewan found two cases in its sequencing during the same time period. British Columbia announced on January 13 that the variant now accounted for 5.6 percent of all samples sequenced. At the same time, over 5,500 Canadians continued to be hospitalized per day, a staggeringly high number that has stayed relatively constant over the past year. Health care systems continue to buckle under the weight of this increased burden, with emergency rooms hit especially hard. Figures released by the province of Quebec show that more than a fifth of emergency rooms in the province are currently exceeding 150 percent capacity. The average length of time a patient waited on a stretcher was between 18-20 hours, and over 5 hours in the waiting room. The head of emergency medicine for Halifax, capital city of the Atlantic province of Nova Scotia, recently told the Toronto Star that ER deaths in the province were up 10 percent in 2022 compared to 2021, and that emergency care was “in a state of crisis.” The comments came in the wake of the death of 37-year-old Allison Holthoff in the emergency room at Cumberland Regional Health Care Centre in Amherst on December 31. Holthoff waited for seven hours in excruciating pain to receive any primary care, according to her husband. Charlene Snow, aged 67, died one day earlier after returning home following a seven-hour wait in the emergency room at the Cape Breton Regional Hospital. Snow’s tragic death prompted her daughter-in-law, Catherine Snow, to set up a website entitled Nova Scotia Health Care Crisis to gather similar stories. “We understand that the staff that work within the health care system are suffering as much as the patients that need to take advantage of it,” she told Global News. “We in no way want any anger or bad thoughts directed at staff members who are already working under such challenging conditions.”
Chinese National Health Commission discloses 60,000 deaths since abandoning Zero COVID - On Saturday, China’s leading public health institution, the National Health Commission (NHC), revealed that between December 8, 2022, when Chinese authorities announced the complete scrapping of all remaining aspects of its prior Zero-COVID public health program, and January 12, a total of 59,938 COVID-19-related deaths took place. President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were under intense international scrutiny to reveal the true extent of their public health crisis after lifting essentially all mitigation measures to contain the coronavirus and allowing a tsunami of hundreds of millions of infections to rip through the country. As late as January 12, health authorities had confirmed that a mere 37 people had died from the virus, a figure known to be completely erroneous and outrageous given the three years of experience with the pandemic. Several modeling estimates made by various research institutes estimated that the first wave of COVID infections in China could cause upwards of 2 million deaths. Even economists at Barclays had predicted that the Omicron wave would have a fatality rate of 0.4 percent among the unvaccinated, while the fully vaccinated might see a rate of 0.02 percent. A study published in Nature Medicine estimated that in the last week of December approximately 76 percent of Beijing’s 22 million people had been infected, and by the end of January that figure would rise to 92 percent. The figure provided by the NHC is clearly intended to suppress any real assessment of the crisis sweeping over China. Many photos and videos taken at crematoriums show these facilities operating at capacity, indicating a significant shift in the number of people seeking to give their deceased family members a respectable burial. Last week, the Washington Post released a report using satellite imagery to show that several crematoriums in densely populated centers were seeing record numbers of visitors. World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 Technical Lead, Dr. Maria van Kerkhove, spoke on China’s outbreak at a media briefing last Wednesday, noting: “There are some very important gaps that we are working with China to fill. First and foremost is to have a really deeper understanding of the transmission dynamics of COVID across the country.” On Saturday, before the NHC’s release of figures on COVID-19 fatalities, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus spoke with NHC head Ma Xiaowei on the country’s current COVID-19 prevention and control measures. The figures presented Saturday only substantiate that the CCP is carrying out a statistical sleight of hand with the numbers to appease the WHO and international media. It is doing so in accordance with every other country that has dismantled COVID-19 testing and tracking metrics and allowed the pandemic to rip under its public health radar. An article in the CCP-aligned Global Times said, “China has insisted on classifying deaths of patients with a positive nucleic acid test as COVID-19-related deaths, which is in line with WHO and international standards.” This was intended as a rebuke to the hypocrisy evident in numerous recent critiques by the Western media and governments about China’s actions on COVID-19, while these governments carried out similar measures in forcing their populations to accept mass infection and death. In order to suppress official figures, Chinese health authorities have maintained a strict definition of COVID-19 fatality that must include respiratory failure caused by the virus. This misses a significant number of people who have died at home or from other causes not directly attributable to respiratory failure but from by-products of their infection.
Nearly 60,000 have died of COVID in China since restrictions eased - Nearly 60,000 have died from the coronavirus in China since the country abandoned its zero-COVID policy last month.Jiao Yahui, head of the Chinese National Health Commission’s Bureau of Medical Administration, told the media on Saturday that the nation recorded 59,938 COVID-related deaths between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12.More than 5,500 of the deaths were caused by respiratory failure and the remaining fatalities resulted from a combination of COVID-19 and other diseases, Yahui said. The surge in deaths comes after Beijing dropped its strict three-year policy that included frequent testing, travel restrictions, and lockdowns, which triggered widespread protests in November.The stark update doubles the number of deaths the country previously reported since the pandemic began, although Beijing’s transparency regarding the virus has garnered global criticism.The distinction between cases follows protocols laid out last month when a Chinese health expert said that only fatalities caused by respiratory failure or pneumonia related to the virus would be classified as COVID-19 deaths. Jiao expanded on the matter Saturday by explaining that the country is dividing respiratory deaths with cases that include underlying diseases.“The standard is basically in line with those adopted by the World Health Organization and other major countries,” she said.Meanwhile, the surge in cases is expected to last, peaking in the next two to three months as infections spread to the country’s vast countryside, a Chinese epidemiologist said. Zeng Guang, the former chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, warned in a report published in local media on Thursday that infections are expected to spike in the country’s rural areas as hundreds of millions travel to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year holiday, which starts Jan. 21.Guang said that medical facilities are not well equipped in the countryside and have been leaving behind the elderly, sick, and disabled.“Our priority focus has been on the large cities,” Zeng said. “It is time to focus on rural areas.”On Friday, Chinese virologists said they discovered an infection with the Omicron subvariant XBB. 1.5, which has been dubbed the most transmissible variant thus far by World Health Organization scientists, although there is no evidence that the effects of the variant are more severe.
Japan's Experts Baffled By High 'COVID Deaths' Despite High Vaccination Rate - After three booster campaigns in 2022, the Japanese are now in a league of their own among mRNA consuming countries, administering far more boosters than countries that had far more coercive vax campaigns. Japanese over 65 have done their best to reduce Japan’s 612-million-dose stockpile of mRNA jabs, with 3rd, 4th, and 5th jab rates of 91%,, 82.5%, and 56%, respectively. But unfortunately, Japan has started 2023 by reporting its highest ever daily Covid death tolls. During the booster era starting in early 2022, each wave has been noticeably higher than the last. What could possibly explain this? Let’s ask Takaji Wakita, chairman of Japan’s Covid Response Advisory Board. The cause of the rise in Covid deaths is *hard to explain.* What about Dr Satoshi Kamayachi, director of the Japan Medical Association? JMA director on increased Covid deaths: “There’s a lot we don’t know, and we don’t have evidence.” Nice to see an expert admit the limit of his knowledge. But there must be something Dr Kamayachi can tell us, right? Dr Kamayachi, citing the rapid spread of Covid infections as one reason, explained that the majority of those who died were over 60 and many had underlying medical conditions. The direct cause of death is often heart failure or kidney disease, and he said that "thorough analysis is needed." Heart failure, you say? Well, it’s not like most Japanese over 60 have been injected multiple times with anything that causes cardiovascular problems, is it? And kidney disease is coincidentally a side-effect of Remdesivir, an approved Covid treatment in Japan. Of course, Japan has been counting anyone who dies with a positive test result as a Covid death regardless of actual cause of death since 2020, but Dr Kamayachi and the rest of Japan’s experts haven’t bothered bringing up the issue of attribution until now. In fact, they were more than happy to cite inflated mortality data to help promote the jabs. But now that people may question why daily reported Covid deaths are higher than ever after the majority of over 65s have taken the experts’ advice to get multiple boosters, underlying medical conditions can apparently be discussed.
New Zealand’s COVID wave continues as XBB.1.5 variant found - In the week ending January 15, another 57 people were reported to have died within 28 days of contracting the coronavirus, and 333 people were in hospital due to the virus at the end of the week. A total of 19,215 new cases were recorded, but the real toll is undoubtedly far higher. The Labour Party-led government is deliberately limiting testing in order to keep people at work, if they have COVID but no symptoms. Since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced an end to New Zealand’s elimination strategy in October 2021, and her government proceeded to abandon lockdowns and other public health measures, the country’s COVID death toll has shot up from around 30 to more than 3,000. In fact, the health ministry reports that 3,766 people have died within 28 days of contracting COVID, but claims that 699 of these deaths were not COVID-related, providing no further details. More than 2.1 million infections have been recorded for the whole pandemic, in a population of 5 million, and 25,427 people have been hospitalised for COVID, including over 3,000 children. With no steps taken to stop or even slow the spread, the toll of illness and death will continue to rise sharply in the coming months. The new Omicron variant XBB.1.5, also known as Kraken, was detected in New Zealand during the first week of January. This variant, the most transmissible and immune-evasive so far, is fuelling a surge in several countries, including the United States where it is estimated to account for over 40 percent of COVID cases. In the face of this new threat, the government is promoting maximum complacency. A ministry of health statement on January 9 declared: “The detection of XBB.1.5 is not unexpected.” Despite clear evidence of Kraken’s heightened transmissibility, it said: “It remains unknown how XBB.1.5 will compete against other variants in a New Zealand context, and whether this could affect the level of COVID-19 circulating in the community in the coming months.” Portraying the mass infection of the population as a positive, the ministry said: “New Zealand currently has a high level of immunity based on high vaccine uptake, combined with a recent wave of infections (so-called ‘hybrid immunity’).”
Over 400 COVID deaths in Australia last week - The year has begun with another sharp spike in COVID fatalities in Australia, following on from 2022, which wrought the worst toll of the pandemic yet. The latest tragic deaths, over the holiday period, are another signal that despite the claims of official politicians and the media, the COVID crisis is far from over. If anything, it is worsening. For the week ending January 13, 408 COVID deaths were officially reported across the country. That is the 10th highest weekly toll of the entire three-year pandemic. It is also the highest seven-day tally since 419 fatalities were recorded in the seven days to August 26. That is, the second week of January saw the most coronavirus deaths in four months. The week before, reported on January 6, saw 271 deaths. This equates to 679 fatalities in the first fortnight of the year. If that rate continues, it will result in some 17,650 COVID deaths throughout the year, more than the roughly 15,000 reported in 2022. The true toll, however, is likely to be far higher. There were some 25,000 excess deaths last year, 10,000 more than the official COVID fatalities. Some of those may have been the result of fatalities in people who had undetected infections, or whose health was impacted by previous exposure to the coronavirus. Others were no doubt victims of the breakdown of the healthcare system, with chronically-underfunded public hospitals having been pushed over the brink by the “let it rip” COVID policies. Last year’s terrible death toll compared with little over 2,200 in the previous two years of the pandemic, when governments were compelled, despite their inclinations, to implement safety measures, including partial lockdowns. Those safety measures, even though they contained a raft of pro-business loopholes, substantially limited illness and death. All of the other nine weeks during which fatalities were higher than in the week ending January 13 naturally coincided with major surges of the pandemic, and also registered sharp spikes in infection numbers.
China says Covid outbreak has infected 80% of population --The possibility of a big Covid-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have been infected, a prominent government scientist said on Saturday. The mass movement of people during the ongoing Lunar New Year holiday period may spread the pandemic, boosting infections in some areas, but a second Covid wave is unlikely in the near term, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said on the Weibo social media platform. Hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling across the country for holiday reunions that had been suspended under recently eased Covid curbs, raising fears of fresh outbreaks in rural areas less equipped to manage large outbreaks. China has passed the peak of Covid patients in fever clinics, emergency rooms and with critical conditions, a National Health Commission official said on Thursday. Nearly 60,000 people with Covid had died in hospital as of Jan. 12, roughly a month after China abruptly dismantled its zero-Covid policy, according to government data. But some experts said that figure probably vastly undercounts the full impact, as it excludes those who die at home, and because many doctors have said they are discouraged from citing Covid as a cause of death.
Chinese hospitals creak under the strain of a huge Covid outbreak — Patients are crammed into hallways, stairwells and lobbies, and still the sick keep coming.In scenes reminiscent of the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, Chinese hospitals are struggling to cope with a surge in Covid-19 casesfollowing the country’s decision to scrap its “zero-Covid” policy in early December. Although the move relaxed three years of strict measures that had set off rare mass unrest, it also unleashed the virus on a population of 1.4 billion people that had been largely shielded from it. After international criticism that it had not been transparent about the severity of the outbreak, the Chinese government said last weekend that it had recorded 60,000 Covid-related deaths since Dec. 8. But that figure covers only those who have died in hospitals, suggesting the true death toll could be much higher. An estimate on Tuesday by Airfinity, an independent forecaster based in London, put the number of Covid-related deaths in China since Dec. 1 at 608,000, 10 times the official figure.“Our forecast estimates a significant burden on China’s health care system for the next fortnight,” Dr. Matt Linley, Airfinity’s analytics director, said, “and it is likely that many treatable patients could die due to overcrowded hospitals and lack of care.”NBC News witnessed chaotic scenes in overcrowded hospitals in Shanghai, China’s financial center and most populous city at 26 million people. Less than a year after a grueling two-month lockdown in an effort to stamp out the virus, the city is now experiencing the consequences of letting it loose. The bodies of those who die in the hospital are taken for cremation. At one funeral home visited by NBC News, their families are allotted 10 minutes to say goodbye. Relatives carry flowers and pictures of the dead through the rain to their designated time slot.“My father had no symptoms but still died,” one 31-year-old woman said outside a hospital in central Shanghai. Her mother, who has heart disease, was still hospitalized with the virus.“Thirty-five people passed away the day before yesterday, right here,” said the woman, who lives in Australia and like others interviewed did not wish to be named due to the political sensitivity of the issue in China. “Since my mom was here, I’ve come here to see [her] every day. On the day my father moved into the hospital, almost all patients in the emergency department died.”The intensity of the outbreak has taken her and many others by surprise.“It’s way more severe than I expected, much more severe,” the woman said. “Especially for seniors, whether or not they have had some diseases before, the virus could end their lives.”
China plays down COVID outbreak amid holiday rush - Trains and buses across China were packed for one of the busiest days of travel in years on Friday (January 20). Feeding fears of new surges in a raging COVID-19 outbreak that officials say has hit its peak. It comes as China reported a large jump in COVID-19 hospitalizations in the week through to January 15, to the highest since the pandemic began, according to a report published by the World Health Organization on Thursday (January 19). Hospitalizations rose by 70% on the previous week to 63,307, according to the WHO, citing data submitted by Beijing. The same day, state media quoted Vice Premier Sun Chunlan as saying the virus was at a "relatively low" level. And health officials said the number of COVID patients in hospital and with critical conditions was on the decline. But there are widespread doubts about China's official account of an outbreak that has overwhelmed hospitals and funeral homes since Beijing abandoned strict COVID controls and mass testing last month. Some health experts expect that more than one million people will die from the disease in China this year. And documents show spending by funeral homes on items from body bags to cremation ovens has risen in many provinces. Regardless, more than 2 billion trips are expected to take place across China between January 7 and February 15, the government estimates. President Xi Jinping said this week he was concerned about an influx of travelers to rural areas with weak medical systems. And that protecting the elderly - many of whom are not fully vaccinated - was a top priority. On Friday, the WHO's director of immunisation said China had made "enormous progress" on delivering both primary and booster doses for older adults.
Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins - Director of National Intelligence - Key Takeaways: The IC assesses that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In addition, the IC was able to reach broad agreement on several other key issues. We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon. Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way. Finally, the IC assesses China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged. After examining all available intelligence reporting and other information, though, the IC remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19. All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident. Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus—a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2. These analysts give weight to China’s officials’ lack of foreknowledge, the numerous vectors for natural exposure, and other factors. One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses. Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.
Exposure to World Trade Center particulate matter accelerates cognitive deterioration in mice model of Alzheimer's -Mice exposed to World Trade Center dust exhibit a significant impairment in spatial recognition and short- and long-term memory, as well as changes in genes related to immune-inflammatory responses and blood-brain barrier disruption, according to a study conducted by researchers from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and published January 17 in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease.The study suggests a peripheral-brain immune inflammatory "cross-talking" that may increase the likelihood of cognitive decline, identifying key steps that may be therapeutically targetable in future studies of World Trade Center first responders."It is imperative that we understand the risk for Alzheimer's disease in aging first responders and other subjects exposed to Ground Zero so that we can develop preventive initiatives," said Giulio Maria Pasinetti, MD, PhD, the Saunders Family Professor of Neurology and Program Director for the Mount Sinai Center for Molecular Integrative Neuroresilience at Icahn Mount Sinai and senior author of the paper.The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center led to intense fires, which produced a massive, dense cloud of toxic gases and suspended pulverized debris comprising particles of varying sizes that contained metals, polychlorinated biphenyls, and polyaromatic hydrocarbons, among other known toxins, collectively known as World Trade Center particulate matter (WTCPM). In the years following the attack and cleanup efforts, a cluster of chronic health conditions emerged among first responders who, working at Ground Zero for prolonged time periods, were repeatedly exposed to high levels of this particulate matter. Among the chronic health conditions, a growing body of scientific literature indicates that these first responders may have a greater incidence of mild cognitive impairment, as well as other neurological complications like changes in white matter connectivity and/or decreased hippocampal volume, which may put them at a greater risk of developing Alzheimer's disease later in life.
‘Concerning’ strain of gonorrhea detected in Massachusetts, officials say - – A novel strain of antibiotic-resistant gonorrhea has been identified in Massachusetts, health officials announced Thursday. The strain was found to resist five classes of antibiotics, a first in the U.S., according to the Massachusetts Dept. of Public Health (DPH). The two cases were ultimately cured with ceftriaxone, the lone remaining treatment recommended for gonorrhea. As of Thursday, officials said there was no known connection between the cases and that contact tracing was underway to see if there were any other infections. Gonorrhea, a sexually transmitted disease (STD), can result in pelvic inflammatory disease, infertility, and other health problems if left untreated. The novel strain has been seen in Asia-Pacific countries as well as the United Kingdom, but not in the U.S., according to the DPH. One case in Nevada had an infection that shared a genetic marker with the novel strain, but the disease proved sensitive to at least one class of antibiotics. For years, experts have warned of the waning number of treatments for the sexually transmitted disease, which is one of the most common in the U.S. with an estimated 1.14 million infections annually, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). What is ‘super gonorrhea’? Researchers identify new case in male patient “Overall, these cases are an important reminder that strains of gonorrhea in the US are becoming less responsive to a limited arsenal of antibiotics,” the DPH said in a news release.
‘The Last of Us’ zombie fungus is real, and it’s found in health supplements - The zombie apocalypse depicted in the popular video game series and newly adapted HBO series “The Last of Us” derives from a mutation to a type of fungus called cordyceps. Surprise! Cordyceps is real, and some600 variations of it can be found around the world, primarily in Southeast Asia. Surprise again! Cordyceps does induce zombielike symptoms in insects, a phenomenon that inspired “The Last of Us” creator Neil Druckmann to include it as the source of his story’s zombie outbreak. Surprise a third time! Cordyceps has long been studied by the scientific community and these days can be found in a number of health supplements. This should probably come as no surprise, though: Unlike in the games and show, cordyceps, as we currently know it, will not turn you into a zombie. But here’s what you should know about “The Last of Us” and its depiction of the zombie fungus.
Florida climate change will raise health risks for diabetics - Some of the health impacts of climate change are obvious and already apparent in Florida, such as more cases of heat stress and mosquito-borne tropical diseases. But it may be surprising that as climate conditions intensify, health experts say it also will increase the risk of sickness and death for people with diabetes.That’s significant for Florida, where a staggering 1 in 10 residents are part of the nationwide diabetes epidemic according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Many at the highest risk, experts say, are the poor and communities of color. At first glance, it may be hard to recognize the links between climate change and diabetes but they’ve been traced in a number of studies. Some are indirect. For type 1 diabetics who rely on taking insulin, disruptions to accessing medication and healthy food — such as flooding or power outages affecting the supply chain or blocking access to pharmacies and stores — can be life-threatening. One study from Dr. Mihail Zilbermint of Johns Hopkins Medicine-Suburban Hospital, published in the National Library of Medicine, documented how Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Harvey caused shortages of medical supplies and food. Florida gets lots of hurricanes, underlined by last season’s double whammy of Ian and Nicole. Then there is more direct threat from rising temperatures, which can worsen the myriad health challenges for diabetics. “Because of the heat, you increase the risk of dehydration, you increase your glucose and increase the risk of kidney damage as there’s decreased circulation to the kidneys,” said Dr. Cheryl Holder, interim executive director of Florida Clinicians for Climate Action. “In many diabetics that high glucose already causes impact on much of the metabolic functions.” And Florida is only going to continue to get hotter. Miami-Dade has about 133 days of the year that are over 90 degrees, according to a county report on extreme heat. By 2050, it could leap to 187 days. Miami is also one of the hottest cities in the United States, making diabetics more susceptible to heat-related complications. Heat is also a problem for other reasons. It can place an excessive load on electrical systems, triggering power outages and refrigeration failures that can damage stored insulin.
COVID is changing how we are exposed to household health risks -COVID-19 is changing household behaviors related to how we are exposed to various household chemicals linked to poor health outcomes. People surveyed earlier in the pandemic were using fewer personal care products but more household cleaners, and eating less fast food and restaurant food but more ultra-processed food. These changes, which occurred since the pandemic onset, are also linked to pandemic-related traumatic stress, which itself may worsen health outcomes. Researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, along with partners from Dartmouth College, as part of the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) consortium, have analyzed responses to a survey from 1,535 adults in six states. Results are published in the journal PLOS ONE. Overall, participants reported using fewer personal care products, including hair products (perms or relaxers, hair dye, hair sprays, hair gels) and makeup/body products (nail polish, makeup, perfume, lotion) since the start of the pandemic. Participants who experienced more pandemic-related traumatic stress were more likely to report using fewer hair products and cosmetics. Approximately half of all respondents reported using more liquid soaps (52%) and antibacterial soaps (48%), and 81% of respondents reported using more hand sanitizer gels. The use of all three products was associated with pandemic-related traumatic stress symptoms. Two-thirds of respondents reported using more antibacterial cleaners and 54% reported using more bleach-containing cleaning products—changes made more likely among those experiencing more pandemic-related traumatic stress. Nearly half (49%) of respondents said they ate more home-cooked meals because of the pandemic. One-third (34%) of respondents reported eating less fast food after the start of the pandemic. Both of these behavior changes were more common among those with more symptoms of pandemic-related traumatic stress. In all, 12% reported eating more ultra-processed foods, and 24% reported eating less processed foods, with the latter more likely among those with symptoms of pandemic-related traumatic stress. While the study did not include measurements of environmental exposures, the researchers say that the scientific literature suggests that these behavior changes likely reflect changes in their exposures to environmental chemicals. They also likely reflect changes—both good and bad—to health outcomes linked to these chemicals. "We can infer that some behaviors like less consumption of fast foods and less use of personal care products might lower exposures to some phthalates and phenols, while greater use of personal and household cleansers may be associated with higher exposure to quaternary ammonium compounds and glycol ethers; and more frequent consumption of ultra-processed food could increase exposure to phthalates and phenols," says lead author Julie Herbstman, Ph.D., director of the Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health (CCCEH) and professor of environmental health sciences. Phthalates are linked to asthma, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, breast cancer, obesity and type II diabetes and neurodevelopmental and behavioral issues. Phenols like BPA are linked to reproductive dysfunction, reduced birth size, cognitive and/or behavior outcomes, asthma, and obesity. Quaternary ammonium compounds are skin irritants and can also lead to asthma exacerbations. Exposure to glycol ethers may also irritate skin, eyes, nose, and throat and may also lead to anemia and/or adverse reproductive outcomes like birth defects.
New US lawsuit targets ‘forever chemicals’ in plastic food containers — A new lawsuit says many plastic containers used in the US to hold food, cleaning supplies, personal care items and other consumer products are likely to be contaminated with toxic PFAS. It is now asking federal courts to halt their production.The suit references soon-to-be-published research that found PFAS (polyfluoroalkyl substances) from HDPE (high-density polyethylene) plastic containers leach at extremely high levels into ketchup, mayonnaise, olive oil and everyday products.Inhance, a Houston-based company named as a defendant, produces tens of millions of consumer containers that contain PFAS, the consumer advocacy groups behind the lawsuit say. The plaintiffs ask a judge to order Inhance to follow Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules that require it to receive approval for its production process.The groups also charge that regulators have known of the potential health threat since early 2021 but have failed to eliminate it.“It’s a grave concern for me that these containers are used for food, full stop,” said Kyla Bennett, a former EPA scientist who is now with Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility, which brought the suit with the Center for Environmental Health.“[Regulators] have known about this for a while and nobody has taken strong action to stop it, which is mind-boggling.”PFAS are a class of about 12,000 compounds typically used to make products resist water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down. They are linked to cancer, kidney disease, liver problems, immune disorders, birth defects and other serious health problems.Inhance treats plastic containers with fluorinated gas to create a barrier that helps keep products from degrading. The consumer groups say the process creates PFAS as a byproduct, including PFOA, one of the most dangerous of the class. EPA rules implemented in 2020 require companies manufacturing long-chain PFAS to submit for a safety review and approval. The suit alleges that Inhance failed to do so, and asks a judge to order the company “to cease and desist from all manufacture and processing of [long chain PFAS] during the fluorination of plastic containers”. In a statement to the Guardian, the Inhance chief commercial officer, Patricia van Ee, said: “We have been, and continue to be, in full compliance with all relevant regulations.”
New NY state law bans PFAS in clothing —– New York and California are now the first two states to ban PFAS in clothing.“They’re put there to make them stain-resistant or water-resistant, but unfortunately, they cause a whole host of problems to our health and to our environment. And so this ban is going to mean that we don’t have to worry about that, we don’t have to worry that when we wash our clothes in the laundry, we’re washing PFAS down the drain and into our drinking water,” said Bobbi Wilding, Executive Director of Clean + Healthy and Co-Chair of the JustGreen Partnership. PFAS, also known as forever chemicals, have been linked to many health concerns, including cancer.The chemicals have been discovered in drinking water all around the state and affected local communities like Hoosick Falls and Poestenkill.Assemblywoman Pat Fahy (D – Albany) was the bill’s Assembly sponsor.“We know these are toxic chemicals and more and more research is showing that in many areas no level is safe, so we are trying,” said Fahy. “As you saw, we had major problems. It started with Hoosick Falls and Flint, Michigan. It really took that to understand the importance of getting it out of the water.”Gov. Kathy Hochul also signed legislation last week that includes a ban on PFAS in new carpet. Wilding says as carpets break down, PFAS end up in our homes.“And that ends up being the biggest exposure for children and pets, who are much closer to the floor,” she said. “Pets lick themselves clean. Babies put their hands in their mouths. And so getting rid of PFAS in carpet is really going to do a lot to increase the health of our indoor environments.” Big companies are paying attention. 3M, a consumer products conglomerate, announced last week that it will stop making the chemicals.
Forever chemicals’ are in their drinking water. So why are some towns slow to act? — Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
‘Forever chemicals’ from Marinette firefighting foam plant are in Lake Michigan, UW researchers find —- A large plume of "forever chemicals" found in the Bay of Green Bay has been traced back to Tyco Fire Products, a Marinette-based company known for mixing firefighting foam at its facility.The study, conducted by UW-Madison department of civil and environmental engineering researcher Christy Remucal and postdoctoral co-investigator Sarah Balgooyen, was published in the Environmental Science & Technology journal in late December.The two researchers sampled water along the shores of the Bay, Remucal said, where Tyco consultants had previously marked the PFAS plume as ending. In those samples, PFAS identical to those used at the Marinette facility were found at rates 10 times higher than the rest of Lake Michigan.A previous study by the two researchers found that tributaries feeding into the Bay were contributing to the levels of PFAS found, but this study was able to use "fingerprinting" to pinpoint where the compounds came from."In this case, the PFAS fingerprint in Green Bay is nearly identical to PFAS associated with Tyco and includes PFAS known to be active ingredients in firefighting foams," the study says.The fingerprinting method could be used to hold accountable manufacturers or other polluting companies responsible for contamination.Tyco, a subsidiary of Johnson Controls, tested firefighting foam containing PFAS outdoors from 1962 until ending the practice in 2017. The foam ended up on the soil surrounding the company's fire training center, as well as in the Marinette sewer system when the foam was washed into drains. Tyco, formerly known as the Ansul Company, was purchased by Johnson Controls in 2016. The contamination in Marinette and Peshtigo stems from the Tyco fire training site, where fires were set outdoors and then doused with foam. The foam contaminated the ground it came into contact and, eventually, the PFAS were carried across the area by the groundwater and the sanitary sewers it was washed into after testing.Outdoor testing was halted in 2017, but PFAS have continued to be an issue, forcing hundreds of residents in the town of Peshtigo to rely on treatment systems to filter the water from their private wells, or bottled water for drinking and cooking.In addition to higher concentrations in the Bay, elevated levels of PFAS were also found in rivers near fields treated with biosolids — treated sewage sludge — likely from the Marinette treatment plant. Biosolids are often spread on agricultural fields as fertilizer.The study found that PFAS in biosolids can become mobile, making their way into streams despite being spread on land."Using biosolids is really great, it recycles nutrients, it's a green way to do agriculture," Remucal said. "But if the biosolids have PFAS, you can spread the PFAS further."Remucal suggested that treatment plants selling their biosolids should begin testing, but acknowledged that many people are hesitant to look, because of the risk of no longer being able to get rid of the treated sludge. Doug Oitzinger, the former mayor of Marinette and member of the activist group Save Our H2O, said the findings have upheld community concerns regarding how far the contamination has reached from Tyco. "It confirms what we suspected of the biosolids having leached into the Peshtigo River," he said.
US freshwater fish highly contaminated with 'forever chemicals,' according to study - Eating just one serving of freshwater fish each year could have the same effect as drinking water heavily polluted with “forever chemicals” for an entire month, a new study finds.The equivalent monthlong amount of water would be contaminated at levels 2,400 times greater than what’s recommended by the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) drinking water health advisories, according to the study, published Tuesday in Environmental Research.The research added that locally caught freshwater fish are far more polluted than commercial catches with per- and polyfluorinated substances (PFAS) — so-called forever chemicals that are notorious for their persistence in the body and the environment. PFAS are key ingredients in jet fuel firefighting foam, industrial discharge and many household products, including certain types of food packaging. For decades, they have leached into drinking water supplies while also contaminating irrigated crops and fish that inhabit local waterways. Fish consumption has long been identified as a route of exposure to PFAS, according to the study. Researchers first identified such contamination in catfish that inhabited the Tennessee River in 1979. But Tuesday’s study is the first analysis to connect U.S. fish consumption to blood levels of PFAS, while also comparing PFAS levels in freshwater fish with those in commercial seafood samples, the authors explained. To draw their conclusions, the researchers evaluated the presence of different types of PFAS in 501 fish fillet samples, acquired through two EPA programs: the 2013-2014 National Rivers and Streams Assessment and the 2015 Great Lakes Human Health Fish Fillet Tissue Study. The median level of total targeted PFAS in fish from rivers and streams was 9,500 nanograms per kilogram, while the median in the Great Lakes was 11,800 nanograms per kilogram, according to the study. These levels indicate that the consumption of such fish “is potentially a significant source of exposure” to PFAS, the authors determined. While the samples included many types of forever chemicals — of which there are thousands — the biggest contributor to total PFAS levels was the compound known as PFOS, responsible for about 74 percent of the total, the researchers found.
Study raises alarm over 'forever chemicals' in fish - Locally caught freshwater fish are often loaded with “forever chemicals” and could pose major health risks, according to new research.Scientists with the Environmental Working Group have found that a single serving of locally caught freshwater fish could be on par with consuming a month’s worth of drinking water containing elevated levels of a notorious PFAS slated for EPA regulation. Furthermore, consuming that fish only 12 times per year could, the scientists said, lead to more than triple amounts of the chemical PFOS in most people across the United States. Published Tuesday in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research, the findings offer a grim look at how contaminated some parts of the food chain are with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances. In particular they zero in on PFOS, a compound linked to health impacts including cancer and kidney and liver disease.Fish consumption “has been observed as an indicator of PFAS,” the scientists noted, especially PFOS. That chemical has historically been used in aqueous film forming foam, which is a major source of contamination around the country. Foam usage at everywhere from military sites to airports has caused PFOS pollution in water, in turn jeopardizing wildlife like fish.But the findings are particularly perilous for communities that are more likely to rely on fish as a big part of their diet, including Indigenous populations and other people of color already disproportionately facing equity challenges.“The exposure to chemical pollutants in freshwater fish across the United States is a case of environmental injustice that especially affects communities that depend on fishing for sustenance and for traditional cultural practices,” wrote the authors.As part of their research, the EWG scientists analyzed over 500 composite samples of freshwater fish filets, all of which were collected through government monitoring programs between 2013 and 2015. The samples included salmon, catfish, perch, walleye and bass. Those data sets indicated median levels of total detectable PFAS of 9,500 nanograms per kilogram across U.S. rivers and streams, with that number at 11,800 ng/kg for the Great Lakes.Current EPA interim health advisories state that PFOS is only safe in drinking water at rock-bottom levels, offering a threshold of 20 parts per quadrillion (or 0.02 part per trillion) for the notorious chemical (Greenwire, June 15, 2022). While chemicals operate differently when consumed through food versus through water, the levels of PFOS in the fish were dramatically higher than the cutoff for drinking water, something the scientists said was alarming. In analyzing the data, they found that PFOS represented 74 percent of the compounds detected. Most notably, the findings indicated that just one serving of freshwater fish was equivalent to drinking water with PFOS at 48 ppt for a full month.The results add to a growing pool of scientific research showing how widespread PFAS contamination is in fish, while underscoring fears around who might be impacted. Researchers have already noted that tribal drinking water systems are underrepresented in EPA testing data as the agency ramps up its PFAS work (Greenwire, Dec. 14, 2022).
Wyden investigation of fish contamination is an important step -. The recent announcement that Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), along with other state and federal lawmakers, is calling for an investigation into the toxic contamination of salmon across the Pacific Northwest, caught my eye. It fits into a broader question of salmon health that has had my community buzzing for the last couple of years. Rather surprisingly, it all starts with automobiles. Rubber tires used on cars contain chemicals used to make them stronger and help them withstand the road and the elements. It’s just like a preservative that lengthens the shelf life of a food product in the grocery store, but for tires. As these protectants breaks down (due to the elements), one of them forms a newly discovered chemical called 6PPD-quinone which can then be washed away into freshwater lakes, rivers etc., with some deadly consequences for the wildlife that resides within. This can include impacts on freshwater fish species on which many communities depend, such as rainbow and brook trout and, of course, coho salmon, whose recent mass die offs on the west coast had been puzzling researchers for a while. Coho salmon are popular among recreational fishers, but they are also an environmentally important species within aquatic ecosystems, so a change in their populations could have knock-on effects on the whole food web. But the problem is we just don’t have the evidence to prove that either way. The research so far has looked at the impact of 6PPD-quinone on individual species, but not on a freshwater ecosystem as a whole. When tire run off leaches into a river or a lake, and kills off coho salmon, what does that do to the populations within the lake on which the coho salmon prey? And then what does that mean to the populations in the lake overall? And the water chemistry? And so and so forth. This is why we need more research, on this relatively understudied chemical, ideally in a real-life setting that can reveal the myriad of impacts that cascade through the system.
‘It’s time to start suing’: States tee up next WOTUS war - Red states are preparing to slug it out in the courts over one of the Biden administration’s signature environmental rules. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced Wednesday he filed a challenge against the new EPA and Army Corps of Engineers definition of which waterways and wetlands are subject to federal permitting requirements. “Legal action is necessary to curtail this Administration’s continued intrusion into the rights of Texans and our ability to control our own natural resources,” Paxton said in a news release. “I’m proud to file this lawsuit challenging Biden’s WOTUS rule and remain committed to pushing back against the Biden Administration’s radical climate agenda.” The announcement came just hours after Texas oil and gas regulators approved a motion Wednesday urging Paxton to challenge the new rule. “It’s time to start suing,” said Texas Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick during an agency meeting. “I think the AG’s going to have a good time with this one.” EPA and the Army Corps unveiled their definition of waters of the U.S., or WOTUS, on Dec. 30, but the new rule wasn’t published in the Federal Register until Wednesday. The publication of the regulation triggers a 60-day deadline for lawsuits before the rule takes effect in March. Challenges to the WOTUS rule are expected to land in multiple federal district courts across the country. The Biden regulation aims to strike a middle ground between the Obama administration’s expansive Clean Water Rule and the Trump-era Navigable Waters Protection Rule, which significantly narrowed the set of streams and wetlands that qualify for federal protection. Both the Obama and Trump WOTUS rules faced hurdles in court. Texas was among the states to support the Trump rule and challenge the Obama regulation. North Dakota may also soon join the legal fray. Gov. Doug Burgum (R) said he is looking “forward to supporting North Dakota’s attorney general in challenging this new rule” in a statement Wednesday. “It’s disappointing that the Biden administration is doubling down on this overreaching policy,” Burgum said in the statement. “The EPA’s reworked version of WOTUS has the same problems as its predecessor, violating landowner rights and creating confusion for farmers, ranchers and industry by adding red tape and erroneously classifying almost every stream, pond and wetland as a federally managed water.”
Scientists: Tougher oil and gas rules needed in gulf to protect rare whale -Two years ago, scientists announced they had discovered a new species in the Gulf of Mexico: Rice’s whale, which they called one of the rarest whales on the planet.The endangered species — only about 50 are believed to exist — lives in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental scientists and advocacy groups are now pressing the federal government to set tougher restrictions on oil and gas companies operating in the gulf to prevent the whale from going extinct.“It’s not too often that we discover new species of whales. And to discover that was exciting, but it was also a little bit bittersweet because they are so critically endangered,” said Kristin Carden, a senior scientist for the Center for Biological Diversity oceans program.Discovered by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the whale can weigh up to 60,000 pounds — about the same as a firetruck — and is part of the baleen whale family, toothless whales that use hairy fringes called baleen to filter food from seawater. It’s the only baleen whale known to live in the gulf, and Carden said its isolation led to it evolving into its own species.Rice’s whales usually hang out near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida, but a single whale has been observed off the coast of Texas, suggesting they move throughout the gulf. Scientists at the National Marine Fisheries Service, also called NOAA Fisheries, are conducting research to understand the whales’ migration patterns.According to NOAA, the most significant threats Rice’s whales face are energy exploration and development, oil spills and chemicals used to disperse oil after a spill. The whales were hit hard by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, which killed 11 workers when a British Petroleum drilling platform exploded and sank, spilling 4 million barrels of oil into the gulf over 87 days.NOAA estimates that about 22% of the whale population was lost because of the spill, along with countless other marine mammals, sea turtles, fish, birds and other wildlife.
Calls grow for federal probe into whale deaths along Northeast beaches -A seventh whale found dead along the coast of the Northeast over the last month and a half has many calling for immediate action until the cause behind the unusual event can be determined.Since early December, a mixture of humpback and sperm whales have been reported dead along various beaches in New York and New Jersey.The sight of the dead whales has sparked an outcry from some environmentalists and legislators demanding that action be taken while an investigation progresses.In a recent letter addressed to President Biden, groups demanded that the investigation be independent, a stoppage issued for all offshore wind production and a ceasing of construction on any future facilities. "The wave of dead whales is the ocean sounding the alarm, and we must heed the warning," Cindy Zipf, executive director of Clean Ocean Action, said in a statement.The news of beached whales also has New Jersey Congressman Jeff Van Drew demanding a halt to offshore wind activities until he is confident that the industry does not pose a threat to marine life.The Garden State is aiming to be one of the top generators of energy from offshore wind farms, but many of the projects are in their infancy stages with estimated completion dates that are still several years away.New Jersey’s first offshore wind project is open for public comment right now. FOX Weahter's Katie Byrne spoke with people for it and against it. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s fisheries division has been tracking an increase in humpback whale mortalities since 2016, but information gathered from completed necropsy examinations has not linked the development or use of offshore wind farms to the deaths of whales.Before the recent uptick in mortalities, NOAA reported the largest cause of non-natural deaths from Maine to Florida was due to human interactions, either by ship strikes or fishing entanglements.The recent uptick in reported deaths is paramount to state and federal agencies who say they are working around the clock to determine the cause."We are asking for patience as our small staff is entirely focused on performing our work in the most professional and scientific manner. As with all large whales, our samples are sent to pathologists and other researchers who are tasked with investigating whale mortalities. These results can take several months to come back before a cause of death can be determined, if at all," the nonprofit Marine Mammal Stranding Center stated. NOAA is also monitoring Unusual Mortality Events involving manatees in Florida, seals in Maine, North Atlantic right whales along the Atlantic coast and gray whales in the Pacific.
NOAA scientists determine what killed washed-ashore whale on Oregon coast– A 40-foot sperm whale that washed ashore on the Oregon coast Saturday died after it was hit by a ship, according to a necropsy completed Monday. The necropsy was conducted by scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA spokesperson Michael Milstein said scientists found evidence that the whale suffered internal bleeding, the result of injuries consistent with a ship’s impact. “The whale then apparently floated a while before washing ashore on Saturday,” Milstein told Nexstar’s KOIN. The whale was dead before it washed ashore in Warrenton, according to the nearby Seaside Aquarium. The necropsy also revealed that the whale was a male, about 20 years old, and was in generally good health at the time it was struck. The Seaside Aquarium told beachgoers to feel free to look at the whale, but not to touch it because it could potentially spread disease to humans or pets. Sperm whales, according to the NOAA, are at increased risk of vessel strikes due to their practice of “rafting,” during which they rest at the surface between dives. The animals are still listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act, despite populations slowly recovering from widespread whaling practices over the last few centuries, the agency reported.
Climate Crisis: Oceans heating up as though we were Constantly Blowing up Atomic Bombs in them – The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released talking points for its report on 2022, warning that the oceans are getting alarmingly hotter every year. The full survey will be out this spring.It turns out of all the extra heat on earth caused by humans putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that keep the sun’s heat from radiating back out into space, some 90% goes into the oceans. If you keep heating up the oceans, moreover, guess what? They get hot.A new scientific paper concurs with the WMO: Cheng, L. J., and Coauthors,“2023: Another year of record heat for the oceans“. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2Even if you take a recent baseline like 1990-2010, and you plot the rise in the temperature of the ocean before and after, you get one of those under/over graphs: Scientists call the extra heat absorbed by the oceans the Ocean Heat Content or OHC. The authors of the Advanced Atmospheric Science article conclude, “Regardless of which dataset is used, there has been a three- to four-fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s.”They are talking about the rate of increase, seeing as much as a 400% speeding-up of the process whereby the oceans’ surface down to 6000 feet is being heated up.One of the authors, John Abraham told CBS News’s Li Cohen that, in order to heat the oceans this much, you’d have to go underwater and blow up an atomic bomb every second of every day of every year. The extra heat involved in this oceanic fever is equal to one hundred times all the electricity generated in the world annually.
Rare January disturbance/subtropical storm forms in the NW Atlantic Ocean - A rare January disturbance/subtropical storm formed in the NW Atlantic Ocean on January 16, 2023. The system was designated by the NHC as Invest 90L. Many meteorologists noted that the system was a subtropical cyclone while others compared it to the 1991 Perfect Storm and a 2013 unnamed subtropical storm for the precedent that a system that is a subtropical storm is not operationally classified as such. “This hybrid system is a candidate to add to the historical database after the fact as a subtropical storm,” said Rick Knabb — the former director of the NWS National Hurricane Center and currently Hurricane Expert at The Weather Channel. “There’s operational discretion on handling such systems in real-time but it’s borderline non-frontal, weak shear inside a cutoff low, and powered in part by relatively warm Gulf Stream.” “A non-tropical low pressure system is centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 480 km (300 miles) north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds,” the NWS National Hurricane Center Miami in Florida said in the Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 15:00 UTC on January 16. “Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so.”
Massive flooding continues in the Philippines — 29 people dead and 1.4 million affected - Heavy rains continue to cause massive flooding in various parts of the Philippines, leaving 29 people dead and affecting around 1.4 million people in 1 956 villages across 48 provinces. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), around 1.4 million people have been affected by floods caused by the series of low pressure areas (LPAs), northeast monsoon, and shear line in the last three weeks. The death toll has now climbed to 29, with 203 396 people remaining displaced. On January 13, the death toll was at 17. The heaviest hit area is Misamis Occidental in Northern Mindanao, where the floods have reached up to 2 m (6.6 feet) high, causing damage to shelters and livelihoods. The flash floods have affected 80% of the population of that region. It’s worth noting that many of the affected areas are still recovering from severe weather in late December, which resulted in at least 52 deaths. The worst affected regions include Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, and BARMM.
Avalanche in Nepal claims 8 lives and leaves many missing - A deadly avalanche occurred on the road from Linzhi to Pai in Nepal on January 17, 2023. The accident took place at the exit of the Duoxiongla Tunnel, claiming the lives of 8 people and leaving many others missing. The cause of the avalanche is currently being investigated, but it is believed that the abnormally high temperatures may have played a role.
Red alerts in effect as Tropical Cyclone “Cheneso” makes landfall in Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone “Cheneso” formed around 12:00 UTC on January 18, 2023, as the fourth named storm of the 2022/23 South Indian Ocean cyclone season. The system intensified further into a severe tropical storm, moving westward toward Madagascar. At around 07:45 UTC (10:45 LT) on January 19, Cheneso made landfall north of the city of Antalaha in northern Madagascar with maximum sustained winds of 90 km/h (55 mph) and gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph), according to Meteo Madagascar. Even though Cheneso weakened after making landfall, wind gusts are still expected to cause harm or destruction when it comes to homes and infrastructure located in Sava and Analanjirofo districts. Red alerts have been issued for those areas as well as Dana Region due to heavy rainfall (100 – 200 mm/ 4 – 8 inches in 24 hours) and high winds predicted from January 19-20. Additionally, there is an elevated risk of flooding occurring in towns and regions that are prone to such events, particularly those in the northeast, highlands, and eastern coasts.
USDA Reveals US Corn-Harvested Acres At 2008 Levels Amid Megadrought – (w/ graphics) Last year was a bad year for corn — the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report shows drought conditions and extreme weather wreaked havoc on croplands. USDA unexpectedly slashed its outlook for domestic corn production amid a severe drought across the western farm belt. Farmers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas were forced to abandon drought-plagued fields. The agency estimated farmers harvested 79.2 million acres, a decline of 1.6 million acres versus the previous estimate — the smallest acres harvest since 2008. The unexpected cut to US harvested corn acres means grain supplies are a lot tighter than realized. A report Thursday showed the corn area in the world's largest producer is at the smallest since 2008 with crops failing in states such as Texas and Nebraska. That's due to persistent drought conditions in the western part of the country that could also hit harvests for wheat plants that are currently dormant for the winter. -- Bloomberg The crop-failed lands reduced total harvest corn acreage to levels not seen since 2008. Less acreage tightens supply and might continue to put a bid under corn prices. Global food prices remain at crisis levels. Here's the current drought situation across the farm belt. Corn production woes from the US don't bode well in the fight to crush food inflation. It seems as if the prices for our food will remain high well through 2023.
Scottsdale cuts off Rio Verde Foothills water supply amid drought - — The survival — or at least the basic sustenance — of hundreds in a desert community amid the horse ranches and golf courses outside Phoenix now rests on a 54-year-old man with a plastic bucket of quarters.John Hornewer picked up a quarter and put it in the slot. The lone water hose at a remote public filling station sputtered to life and splashed 73 gallons into the steel tank of Hornewer’s water hauling truck. After two minutes, it stopped. Hornewer, one of two main suppliers responsible for delivering water to a community of more than 2,000 homes known as Rio Verde Foothills, fished out another quarter..Some living here amid the cactus and creosote bushes see themselves as the first domino to fall as the Colorado River tips further into crisis. On Jan. 1, the city of Scottsdale, which gets the majority of its water from the Colorado River, cut off Rio Verde Foothills from the municipal water supply that it has relied on for decades. The result is a disorienting and frightening lack of certainty about how residents will find enough water as their tanks run down in coming weeks, with a bitter political feud impacting possible solutions.The city’s decision — and the failure to find a dependable alternative — has forced water haulers like Hornewer to scour distant towns for any available gallons. About a quarter of the homes in Rio Verde Foothills, a checkerboard of one-acre lots linked by dirt roads in an unincorporated part of Maricopa County, rely on water from a municipal pipe hauled by trucks. Since the cutoff, their water prices have nearly tripled. The others have wells, though many of these have gone dry as the water table has fallen by hundreds of feet in some places after years of drought. “This is a real hard slap in the face to everybody,” said Hornewer, who has been hauling water to his neighbors for more than two decades. “It’s not sustainable. We’re not going to make it through a summer like this.”
Researchers warn of climate change impact on songbirds’ breeding season in California – Songbirds in California’s Central Valley will have a harder time mating this year due to climate change, a new study claims. Climate change models outlined in a study recently published in the academic journal Biological Conservation predict the Central Valley will see higher-than-normal rainfall this spring, the beginning of bird nesting season. On top of that, study crafters expect more days of extreme heat in the Central Valley. The mix of more rain and more extreme heat will impact where songbirds nest, how many eggs they lay, and how many baby birds will survive into adulthood. Researchers from the University of California, Davis looked at 11 years’ worth of nesting data on four species of cavity-nesting songbirds in the Central Valley, specifically along a 20 mile stretch near Putah Creek. Cavity-nesting refers to when a bird lays eggs or raises their young inside of some shelter like a pecked-out hole in a tree, an exposed pipe, or in between rock crevices. In those 11 years, researchers found that extreme heat impacted the reproductive success of all four species of bird as well as clutch size, or the number of eggs laid, and fledgling bird weight. Researchers found that the rate at which baby tree swallows reached the age of flight decreased by 39 percent and nestling weight dropped by 19 percent during the hottest maximum temperatures in the area. High temperatures can impact bird reproduction in several ways. High daytime temperatures can mean less food for baby birds either because adult birds are less likely to forage for food as a means of escaping the heat or the food itself is less plentiful, researchers note. Excessive heat can also physically stress chicks to the point of losing weight or dying. “The changes happening in California’s Central Valley — increasing temperatures, wetter springs, greater variability — those impacts are happening across Mediterranean landscapes,” In spaces where birds are already in an extremely variable climate, small changes will make a big difference.
Polar bear kills woman, boy in remote Alaska village — A polar bear has attacked and killed two people in a remote village in western Alaska, according to state troopers. Alaska State Troopers said they received the report of the attack at 2:30 p.m. Tuesday in Wales, on the western tip of the Seward Peninsula, KTUU reported. “Initial reports indicate that a polar bear had entered the community and had chased multiple residents,” troopers wrote. “The bear fatally attacked an adult female and juvenile male.” The bear was shot and killed by a local resident as it attacked the pair, troopers said. The names of the the two people killed were not released. Troopers said they were working to notify family members. Troopers and the state Department of Fish and Game are planning to travel to Wales once weather allows for it, the dispatch said. Wales is a small, predominantly Inupiaq town of about 150 people, just over 100 miles (161 kilometers) northwest of Nome. Fatal polar bear attacks have been rare in Alaska’s recent history. In 1990, a polar bear killed a man farther north of Wales in the village of Point Lay. Biologists later said the animal showed signs of starvation, the Anchorage Daily News reported. Alaska scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey in 2019 found changes in sea ice habitat had coincided with evidence that polar bears’ use of land was increasing and that the chances of a polar bear encounter had increased.
Siberia Sees Coldest Air in Two Decades as Temperature dips to Minus-80 --In Siberia, the icebox of the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures have plunged to their lowest levels in at least two decades: around minus-80 degrees. This exceptional cold is projected to continue into the weekend.Temperatures have fallen up to 50 degrees Fahrenheit (27.8 Celsius) below normal amid this frigid siege, with the bitter cold stretching as far west as the far reaches of Eastern Europe.The rural northern Siberian town of Zhilinda, home to fewer than 1,000 people, dipped to minus-79.8 degrees (minus-62.1 Celsius) Tuesday, its lowest January temperature on record, according to climate expert Maximiliano Herrera. It marked the lowest temperature in Siberia since 2002.Computer models suggested a few spots may have been even colder — or as low as minus-81 (minus-62.8 Celsius).Such cold has become uncommon in recent decades because of human-caused climate change. Global warming decreases the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks, but it does not eliminate them.Herrera noted Zhilinda was just a whiff away from setting its all-time record low of minus-82.3 degrees (minus-63.5 Celsius). The all-time record low for all of Russia, which is the lowest temperature for any inhabited area of the Northern Hemisphere, is minus-89.9 degrees (minus-67.7 Celsius) — set in February 1933.At least a half-dozen official weather stations in Russia have reached minus-76 degrees (minus-60 Celsius) or lower in recent days. These locations are embedded within a large swath of extreme cold that stretched from around the southern Barents Sea, east of Scandinavia, to the Sea of Okhotsk, north of Japan.Zhilinda had not seen temperatures rise above minus-58 degrees (minus-50 Celsius) for six days as of Wednesday. And temperatures are forecast to fall toward minus-76 degrees (minus-60 Celsius) again in coming nights.Olenek — southeast of Zhilinda — was among the locations where temperatures tumbled to exceptionally low levels. Its low of minus-76.7 degrees (minus-60.4 Celsius) was the coldest at that location since January 1959, according to Thierry Goose, a climate researcher in British Columbia.The cold is connected to a zone of very strong high pressure entrenched over the region and lobes of the polar vortex swirling around it.Thus far this winter, the polar vortex — which is a zone of frigid air that originates near the North Pole — has been very strong and stable, bottling up cold air over Arctic regions. Because the vortex has remained mostly undisturbed, it has limited the escape of frigid air into the mid-latitudes.
California floods cause estimated $31 billion in damage, 19 dead -- A preliminary estimate by AccuWeather of the damage caused by the series of storms in California puts the total damage and economic cost at $31 billion to $34 billion. At least 19 people have perished as a result of the storms since late December. Despite the devastating damage, US President Joseph Biden just signed a disaster declaration on Saturday, nearly a week after California Governor Gavin Newsom requested one.The sheer amount of precipitation delivered by atmospheric rivers has rapidly brought a significant portion of California out of extreme drought, which has decreased from 27.1 percent of the state last week to just 0.32 percent this week, according to the US drought monitor. Severe drought dropped from 71 to 46 percent. Parts of California have received in excess of three feet of rain. The Sierra Nevada Mountains received record snowfall, which well surpasses seasonal averages, despite the season just starting. Much of the state is receiving rainfall totals of 400 to 600 percent above average.“By some estimates 22 to 25 trillion gallons of water have fallen over the course last 16-17 days—the stacking of these atmospheric rivers the likes of which we’ve not experienced in our lifetimes,” the governor said at a recent news conference. “The reality is this is just the eighth of what we anticipate will be nine atmospheric rivers,” he further warned. More than 8 million people were under flood watches as of Saturday night, including much of California’s central coastline and the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys.Reservoirs, while receiving some water, are still far below typical storage capacities. Most of the trillions of gallons of water are expected to be lost to runoff in the drought-stricken state. 'The challenge there is getting the water from outfalls … or rivers and into the groundwater,' Jenny Pensky, a hyrdogeologist at the University of California Santa Cruz, told CBS News. She added, “We just don’t quite have the infrastructure for that.” The corporate media’s response was to tell Californians: “Instead of thinking we can control floods, we have to learn to live with them.” This quote, from Peter Gleick, a climate scientist, was found in the CNN article,“California’s dilemma: How do you harness an epic amount of rain in a water-scarce state? Let it flood, scientists say.” Gleick claims this will “allow us to capture more of these flood flows, store it underground in these aquifers, and then use those ground water resources when we need them in dry years.” Nicholas Pinter, a researcher and professor of applied geosciences at the University of California at Davis who is also quoted in the article, proposes changing insurance plans to effect forced relocation. “We have to design flood insurance policies to encourage people to move away from flood plains, so we can open up those floodplains, so when we get those floods they will be less damaging.” He also points to the European Union as a model for flood management claiming, “The Europeans in the 1990s started doing this. They made a multi-billion-euro investment to draw levees back.”
More rain, snow in California from ninth in series of storms (AP) — The ninth atmospheric river in a three-week series of major winter storms was churning through California on Monday, leaving mountain driving dangerous and the flooding risk high near swollen rivers even as the sun came out in some areas. Heavy snow fell across the Sierra Nevada and the National Weather Service discouraged travel. Interstate 80, a key highway from the San Francisco Bay Area to Lake Tahoe ski resorts, reopened with chain requirements after periodic weekend closures because of whiteout conditions. “If you must travel, be prepared for dangerous travel conditions, significant travel delays and road closures,” the weather service office in Sacramento said on Twitter. The University of California Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab tweeted Monday morning that it had recorded 49.6 inches (126 cm) of new snow since Friday. A backcountry avalanche warning was issued for the central Sierra, including the greater Tahoe area. A barrage of atmospheric river storms has dumped rain and snow on California since late December, cutting power to thousands, swamping roads, toppling trees, unleashing debris flows and triggering landslides. Monday’s system was relatively weak compared with earlier storms, but flooding and mudslide risks remained because the state was so saturated, forecasters said. Mostly dry days were in the week’s forecast, though some parts of Northern California could see more rain at midweek. The sun came out Monday in San Francisco, where 20.3 inches (51.5 cm) of rain has fallen at the city’s airport since Oct. 1, when California typically begins recording rainfall for the year. The average for the “water year” is 19.6 inches (49.8 cm), “so we’ve surpassed the yearly total with 8 more months to go,” the San Francisco weather service office tweeted. Across the bay in Berkeley, 10 homes were evacuated Monday when a sodden hillside collapsed, sending mud onto properties. No injuries were reported. Up to 2 more inches (5 cm) of rain fell Sunday in the soaked Sacramento Valley, where residents of Wilton and surrounding communities were warned to prepare to leave if the Cosumnes River rose further. In Monterey County, the swollen Salinas River swamped farmland over the weekend and officials said Monday that it was still rising. To the east, flood warnings were still in effect for Merced County in the agricultural Central Valley, where Gov. Gavin Newsom visited Saturday. Newsom on Monday signed an executive order to further bolster the state’s emergency storm response and help communities that suffered damage. President Joe Biden declared a major disaster in the state and ordered federal aid to supplement local recovery efforts. In Southern California, the sun shone in Los Angeles, but winter storm warnings and advisories were still in place for mountain areas, where many roads remained impassable because of mud and rock slides. Two northbound lanes of Interstate 5 near Castaic in northern LA County were closed indefinitely after a hillside collapsed. Downtown Los Angeles set a rainfall record Saturday with 1.82 inches (4.6 cm), the weather service said. At least 20 storm-related deaths have occurred, and a 5-year-old boy remained missing after being swept out of his mother’s car by floodwaters in San Luis Obispo County. Forecasters were keeping their eyes on a storm forming in the Pacific to see if it gains enough strength to become the state’s 10th atmospheric river of the season. Either way it is likely to only bring light rain and will be confined mostly to Northern California when it makes landfall Wednesday, state climatologist Dr. Mike Anderson said Monday during a state weather briefing.
California storms: Atmospheric rivers winding down, experts say - The atmospheric rivers that brought pounding rains and heavy snow over parts of California this month continued to drench Southern and Central California on Monday, prompting a fresh round of flood advisories, heavy snowfall and hazardous road conditions as this week’s weather system moved eastward.The coastal region around the Bay Area faced flood watches and warnings as swollen waterways spilled onto roads and disrupted travel early Monday. Fire officials warned residents of the Berkeley Hills neighborhood in Berkeley to be prepared to evacuate after mudslidesreportedly forced a few residents to flee early Monday. Farther south, in San Diego County, residents awoke after a night of powerful storms downed trees and flooded roads. From the Sierra Nevada to the Lake Tahoe region, winter storm warnings and watches were expected to carry an additional 4 to 8 inches of snow in the foothills, according to the National Weather Service.Here’s what else you need to know
- Another storm system that is forecast to hit the state later this week “barely qualifies” as an atmospheric river, according to the Department of Water Resources, which fits the trend of the systems weakening over the past several days.
- These storms, which killed at least 19 people, have been deadlier than any California wildfire since 2018.
The weather system that has been battering California with heavy rain, wind and snow the past few weeks is expected to ease in the coming days, California water and climate experts said Monday, potentially relieving residents weary from impassable roads, damaged homes and deadly floods.The weather that is expected to hit the state midweek “barely qualifies” as an atmospheric river, Michael Anderson, the state climatologist with California’s Department of Water Resources, said during a Monday afternoon news briefing. Anderson and other experts expected precipitation and flood risks to ease as the current weather system weakens — though conditions throughout the remainder of winter will determine whether the recent heavy snowfall leads to springtime flooding.It wasn’t so long ago that California prayed for rain. Something to quench the climate-change-fueled drought — the worst in at least 1,200 years — that has caused farm fields to wither and wells to run dry. To ease the blistering heat waves that triggered power outages and sent thousands to emergency rooms. To extinguish the wildfires that have ravaged forests, destroyed communities and blackened the skies.Now, the water that Californians so desperately wanted is pummeling them like a curse. It’s surging over riverbanks and rushing through communities, toppling drought-stressed trees, turning scorched mountainsides into avalanches of mud. The storms cut off power to roughly 150,000 customers across the state Tuesday. The flooding prompted evacuations in Montecito and other parts of Santa Barbara County, and swept away a 5-year-old boy who still has not been found. Officials said at least 16 people have been killed by the storms of the past two weeks — more than the number of lives lost in wildfires over the last two years.
California sees extensive storm damage as weather calms - (AP) — Key roadways remained closed and officials estimated thousand of homes were seriously damaged in California as weeks of wild weather that flooded roadways, collapsed hillsides and toppled countless trees finally became calm Tuesday. Tallying the damage will take time, but the number of houses and other structures that will be red-tagged as uninhabitable could be in the “low thousands,” said Brian Ferguson, spokesperson for the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. The damage is spread across 41 of California’s 58 counties, Ferguson said. In unincorporated Santa Barbara County, after more than 60 inspections at properties that sustained damage from mudslides and downed trees, four homes were red-tagged and 32 were yellow-tagged as needing extensive repairs, said Kelsey Buttitta, the county’s communications manager. “Also we’re seeing a lot — a lot — of damage when it comes to roads,” she said, estimating that more than a dozen are fully closed. “Some roads are completely washed away.” There is no estimated reopening date for State Route 154, a key north-south artery in the county that is inundated with mud and rocks, Buttita said. Nine atmospheric rivers since late December caused power outages, flooding, levee breaks, washouts and landslides nearly statewide. At least 20 people were killed.
California rainstorm death toll reaches 20, Biden plans visit (Reuters) - The parade of atmospheric rivers that pounded California for three weeks finally faded on Monday, enabling the state to begin lengthy repairs to roads and levees as the White House announced President Joe Biden planned to survey the damage. The nine consecutive rainstorms that inundated California in succession since Dec. 26 killed at least 20 people while tens of thousands remained under evacuation orders as of Monday, Governor Gavin Newsom said in an executive order that reinforced the state's response to storm damage. "The last of the heavier rain in California is slowly fading. After midnight it shouldn't be heavy anymore," said meteorologist David Roth of the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. Biden will travel to areas of the central coast on Thursday to meet first responders, visit affected towns, and "assess what additional federal support is needed," the White House said. The president had already issued an emergency declaration on Jan. 8 to free up federal aid and then on Saturday authorized disaster assistance for Merced, Sacramento and Santa Cruz counties.
Biden gets first-hand look at costly damage to California’s Central Coast - President Joe Biden got a first-hand look Thursday at the costly damage in California from a series of powerful storms, where rain, floods and surging waves have caused billions in damage and at least 20 deaths. Biden, accompanied by Gov. Gavin Newsom and other officials, flew by helicopter over the battered Central Coast, an area south of San Francisco that experienced some of the worst ravages of the storms that began in late December and only tapered off this week. His itinerary included the beach town of Capitola, the setting for some of the most dramatic scenes in recent weeks as large waves tore apart a historic wooden wharf and smashed the community’s bright homes and businesses, depositing heavy debris on beaches. People crowded public areas to catch a glimpse of the president. Speaking from a recently cleared section of beach, Biden predicted it would take years to recover for some areas. He said the federal government would help build stronger infrastructure to withstand extreme weather that — driven by climate change — is becoming common in the state. He noted his administration has already sent $9 billion in disaster aid to California since he took office. “There’s got to be significant changes made and the federal government’s going to be here to help get that done,” he said. Local officials have just begun tallying the damage left by the storms: Preliminary estimates from Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Sacramento counties put the figure at a combined $250 million. The statewide total will be well into the billions. The figures eventually will affect how much money California communities receive through Biden’s recent disaster declaration, which he expanded Wednesday to cover 100 percent of costs for certain debris removal, emergency protective measures and other public assistance in affected areas. Successive atmospheric rivers barreled over California starting shortly after Christmas, dumping a statewide average of 11.47 inches of rain from Dec. 26 to Jan. 17, with parts of the state receiving more than 30 inches, according to National Weather Service figures published Wednesday evening. Creeks and rivers flooded, falling boulders destroyed roads and expansive pools formed in low-lying agricultural and suburban areas, damaging homes and vehicles. Winds that gusted above 100 miles per hour in some places downed trees and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands of people. At least 20 people died, including a 1-year-old boy who was crushed when a tree fell on a mobile home in Sonoma County.
Here’s how California is trying to hold on to its rainwater – California is trying to hold on to as much of its rain water as it can even as it deals with a terrible series of storms that has led to widespread flooding, 19 deaths and more than 20,000 homes without power. The reason is simple: the Golden State is also experiencing a three-year drought that had left Californians short of water. The state has experimented with a number of ways to hold on to the rain when it comes. Researchers across the west are investigating and implementing groundwater recharge projects, or man-made interventions aimed at helping aquifers replenish themselves. “The general concept is you’ve got enough water on the surface. You’d like to put it in the ground,” Because more groundwater has been pumped out of the ground over the years than has been naturally replenished, more space is available underground to hold additional surface water. That space, “which is vastly greater than the sum of all of the surface storage reservoirs that exist now or could be built,” is itself a resource, Projects aimed at moving surface water into those spaces include putting water in percolation basins and letting it settle into the ground or building injection wells that lead the water directly into aquifers. Over 340 projects have been proposed by communities in California, while the state itself has a goal of expanding average groundwater recharge by at least 500,000 acre-feet each year. The California Department of Water Resources has announced it is expediting the permitting process for projects. Thanks to climate change, “we have and will continue to have too much water when we don’t want it and not enough when we do, and so storage is the key,” said Kiparsky. “The fact that we’ve created this massive space underground holds the key to that problem.” In 2018, California approved expansion projects for the Los Vaqueros Reservoir and Pacheco Reservoir. Combined, the projects, along with construction of two new reservoirs, are expected to boost California’s reservoir storage by 9 percent. Construction on each expansion is not expected to begin until the late 2020s, however. The Pacheco project will increase the reservoir’s size from 6,000 acre-feet to 141,600 acre-feet, while the Los Vaqueros project will increase the reservoir from 60,000 acre-feet to 275,000 acre-feet. Although new reservoirs and expansions can improve water supply flexibility, costs are high and some environmentalists have raised concerns about the projects’ impacts on local wildlife. The four projects received a total investment of nearly $2 billion from the state of California. In addition, existing California regulations mandate when reservoirs are allowed to fill up and by how much, as empty space in a reservoir can be crucial to collect excess water when a major storm hits. “The rule might say, after a big storm in January, you must release enough water so that you’re at 60 percent, or whatever the rule is,” said Fisher. “And there’s a reason for that because if you don’t empty out part of the reservoir, it is not available for the next storm. It can’t help with flood control.” But if no storm hits, some reservoirs may empty too soon, leading to wasted water. On the other hand, if a reservoir does not empty enough and a dam is overwhelmed, it runs the risk of flooding downstream.
California shows why 'climate chaos' describes the climate problem better - "Global warming" morphed into "climate change" which now seems inadequate to describe the weather chaos we are experiencing on planet Earth.* The recent "atmospheric rivers" which have drenched California have been a catastrophe causing an estimated $1 billion in property damageand at least 17 deaths. As of this writing, overflowing river waters could cut the Monterey Peninsula off from the rest of the mainland. The terrible rains that have hit California since December 26 have also been a bit of a blessing to the drought-ravaged state. Just as the storms began, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that 28 percent of the state was considered to be in "extreme drought" and 45 percent was considered to be in "severe drought." But, even after an estimated 24.5 trillion gallons of water have dropped on California since December 26, 46 percent of California remains in "severe drought" and 49 percent is considered to be in "moderate drought." So intense has been a drought which began in 2020, that the state is still not out of danger when it comes to water supplies. While California is prone to droughts, droughts are getting more severe and developing more quickly. This might be explained by something called the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. For every degree Celsius of warming, there is 7 percent more moisture in the air. That is driving extreme downpours around the world as average temperatures have risen 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1880. But the flip side of this relationship is that warming temperatures and the greater capacity of the atmosphere to hold water can cause drying to occur more quickly. Part of California's problem is its water infrastructure. Most of it was built when the population was half what it is today. And, the way it was built also matters. Dams control floods which is good. But this is also not so good because floods cover the floodplains where floodwaters can seep underground and replenish aquifers that much of California depends on for its water. Another problem is that the California rains did little to affect one of California's major sources of water, the Colorado River, which continues to dwindle due to a drought that has spanned more than 20 years. In fact, the southwestern United States has seen the driest 22-year period in 1200 years according the journal Nature. California faces extreme rainfall and serious drought at the same time. That's chaos.
Disasters displaced 3 million Americans last year -- |Natural disasters displaced more than 3 million Americans in 2022, including nearly 1 million in Florida alone, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The data, first reported by Pluribus News, indicates that about 3.33 million people were displaced by natural disasters over the past year. The plurality were in Florida, where such events forced 999,401 people — about 7 percent of the state’s population — from their homes. The state was hit in September by Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 storm that made landfall in the southwest part of the state, killing at least 114 people and costing up to $65 billion in insured losses. Louisiana saw a smaller number of people displaced, but a greater share of the population. The Census Bureau found 410,000 Louisianans, or 15 percent of the state’s population, were displaced last year. Natural disasters affecting the state in 2022 included multiple tornadoes, including a December outbreak that killed at least three people. However, the state saw an unusually low level of hurricane activity in the last year, with Ian being the only major named storm affecting Louisiana.Small New England, Midwestern and Great Plains states saw the lowest percentage of their residents displaced by natural disasters in the last year, according to the census data. Indiana, Maine, North Dakota and Ohio all saw about 0.2 percent of residents displaced by disasters in 2022.The United Nations’ refugee agency has identified natural disaster displacement as one of climate change’s “most devastating” impacts. The Biden administration has already taken steps to pay some tribal communities to voluntarily relocate from areas expected to be made increasingly unlivable by the effects of climate change. The Interior Department announced in November that it will provide $25 million each in relocation funds from the Inflation Reduction Act to Washington state’s Quinault Indian Nation and Alaska’s Newtok Village and Native Village of Napakiak.Grid Operator PJM Probes US Power Supply Woes During December Storm—The largest U.S. power-grid operator is probing why suppliers were unable to deliver needed power during a late December storm when customers narrowly avoided outages as freezing temperatures descended, officials said on Thursday. Generators that were unable to deliver increased electricity during three peak demand days in late December could face about $2 billion in penalties, stakeholders and analysts said. Grid operator PJM Interconnection oversees supply in a 13-state region, managing and paying on-call generators to keep power systems running. When generators fail to meet supply, they may be required to pay the grid operator for replacement power. PJM officials said on Thursday that more than 90 percent of the generators that fell short gave less than an hour’s notice during winter Storm Elliott. PJM acknowledged it underestimated demand by about 10 percent. About 70 percent of the units that were short were natural gas-fired generators, some that suffered pipeline fuel losses from the Marcellus-Utica shale region, said Brian Fitzpatrick, a fuel supply analyst at PJM. “There just was not enough upstream supply to match the demand,” Fitzpatrick said. The operator serves a territory that spans New Jersey to Illinois and Washington. It plans to release in April a report on its investigation. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corp., the main power system regulators, have launched a broader investigation into problems with the operations of the bulk-power system during the freeze. Grid operators in New England, which suffered among the worst power outages of any major region during the cold blast, also blamed on-call generators for failure to meet demand, leading to $39 million in fines. PJM’s supply shortages could trickle down to ratepayers, research firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note. It has called into question the functionality of markets. “We think that significant upward bill impacts—should they materialize—could further fuel the ongoing debate as to whether PJM’s capacity market is working as intended,” ClearView Energy Partners said.
Texas Plants Said They Were Ready for the Next Big Freeze. Many Weren’t. - Last month, a severe Arctic blast descended upon much of the country, including Texas. Electricity usage rose dramatically, straining the power grid. Fortunately, our state avoided the kind of deadly blackouts it experienced in 2021. To the east, some North Carolina residents celebrated Christmas Eve with rolling blackouts.So last week, Texas regulators took a victory lap. “This was a nonevent,” declared Peter Lake, chairman of the Public Utility Commission. He credited reforms implemented during the past year and a half. And, to be sure, some of those reforms seem to have made a difference.But let’s not get ahead of ourselves and spike the football. We’re not in the end zone yet. Since the Christmas week deep freeze, we’ve learned a lot about what worked—and what didn’t. Some of those revelations are concerning. Most troubling is that Texas still has difficulties in delivering natural gas during the coldest weather. When temperatures drop, we crank up our gas-fired furnaces and use a lot of electricity. We need a lot of natural gas to stay warm. When we can’t get it, Texans can die.Which is what happened in February 2021, after a large number of gas processing plants seized up and shut down because of icy weather. Over a five-day period that month, the state’s gas processing capacity fell by 84 percent. Without those facilities treating the gas as it comes out of wells, gas can’t reach the state’s pipelines. This past December, the system’s performance was better, but still not great.Over a two-day period in the run-up to Christmas, the state’s gas processing capacity fell 34 percent, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy data and analytics firm. Still, “the fact that it was as cold as it was and we still had ample supply is a positive,” said Ben Chu, the firm’s head of trading analytics.But that drop in gas processing capacity troubles Joshua Rhodes, a founding partner at the energy consulting firm IdeaSmiths and a research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin. “It doesn’t give me much confidence that we addressed the gas supply issues we faced with Winter Storm Uri,” he said.
Texas electrical grid still at risk in extreme weather -Dallas Fed |(Reuters) - The Texas electrical grid is still vulnerable to severe weather despite safeguards following a deadly February 2021 deep freeze that brought widespread power outages, the Dallas Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Since the freeze roughly two years ago, which caused key components of the state's electrical system to fail, Texas has introduced regulations to weatherize its grid. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas called for increased enforcement of those standards and more incentives to boost thermal power generation and Texas' so-called enhanced demand-response programs, which can include paying large power customers to curtail electricity use during peak demand. The moves "would help ensure the power grid stands up to future demand growth and the challenges of extreme weather," Garrett Golding, a senior business economist at the Dallas Fed, said in a note. The state's grid, which the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) primarily operates and the Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas oversees, avoided rolling blackouts during severe cold weather last month, which scientists have partly attributed to climate change. Representatives for ERCOT and the Texas PUC said the performance during the winter storm, along with other severe temperatures that have led to surging demand since early 2021, is proof that grid reforms have been successful. "The reforms implemented are working, and as a result, the reliability and resiliency of the grid is stronger than ever before," ERCOT said in an email. Texas PUC spokesperson Ellie Breed said the grid now needs more on-demand power generation to meet growing demand from the second largest U.S. state, adding that the commission will vote this week on adding power generation and on other grid-related issues.
Intense lava fountaining at Villarrica volcano, Chile - Intense strombolian activity continues at Villarrica volcano, Chile, with lava fountains reaching up to 150 m (490 feet) in height. The Alert Level remains at Yellow (the second lowest level on a four-color scale). SERNAGEOMIN reported that activity at Villarrica had increased in recent weeks, with explosions ejecting material almost as far as 480 m (1 570 feet) from the crater. This is near the extent of the 500 m (1 640 feet) exclusion zone in place around the crater. The exclusion zone was increased to 1 km (0.6 miles) as a preventative measure on January 6, 2023. ONEMI maintains the Alert Level at Yellow (the middle level on a three-color scale) for the municipalities of Villarrica, Pucón (16 km / 10 miles N), Curarrehue, and the commune of Panguipulli.1 Vigorous lava fountaining was reaching a height of about 125 m (410 feet) on January 13 and up to 150 m (490 feet) on January 15. The activity further intensified on January 16, with about 70 lava fountains registered in a matter of 9 hours, surpassing a height of 150 m (490 feet) above the crater. According to locals, vibrations produced by the eruption were reported about 8 km (5 miles) from the volcano.
A week of intense solar activity: 2 X- and 25 M-class flares, with 2 Earth-directed CMEs (video) The period of January 9 to 15, 2023, was marked by intense solar activity, with numerous M and X-class flares being observed. The largest event of the period was an X1.9 flare on January 9, followed by an X1.0 on January 10. There were a total of 2 X-flares and 25 M-flares during the period but only two Earth-directed CMEs were observed from this flurry of activity.The largest event of the period was an X1.9/3b flare (R3-Strong) from Region 3184 at 09:18 UTC on January 9.This region also produced multiple M-class flares, including:
- M1.1/Sf at 01:02 UTC on January 9
- M1.0/Sf at 02:16 UTC on January 10
- M1.0 at 11:08 UTC on January 10
- M1.2 at 17:48 UTC on January 10
- M5.6/1b at 01:56 UTC on January 11, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (628 km/s) at 01:53 UTC on January 11
The next largest event was an X1.0/2b flare (R3-Strong) with an associated Tenflare from Region 3186 at 22:47 UTC on January 10, which also produced multiple M-class flares: [list] Region 3181 also produced multiple M-class flares:: [list] Region 3182 produced: : [list]Region 3191 produced an M1.3/Sf flare at 02:09 UTC on January 14 and an M6.0/Sf flare at 03:42 UTC on January 15, with an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 223 km/s at 03:10 UTC on January 15.Region 3190 contributed an M4.8/2b flare at 14:30 UTC on January 15.There were a total of 2 X-flares and 25 M-flares during the period.Interestingly, there were only two Earth-directed CMEs observed from this flurry of activity.1The first CME was associated with the M5.6/1b flare at 01:56 UTC on January 11, from Region 3184, and the second CME was associated with the M4.6 flare at 21:00 UTC on January 14, from Region 3182.Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate to high levels throughout the outlook period of January 16 – February 11, 2023. This is due to the presence of numerous existing and returning M and X-class flare-producing regions on the Sun’s surface. There’s a slight chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit during the outlook period, due to the magnetic complexity and flare history of the abundant sunspot groups. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from January 20 – 30, 2023 in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate levels. The geomagnetic field activity is also expected to range from quiet to G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are anticipated on January 26, with active conditions likely on January 19 and February 9, and unsettled conditions likely on January 16, 18, 20-22, 25, 27-28, and February 1-2, 7-8, and 10.
Increased solar activity - glancing blow possible on January 19 - (video) Solar activity reached high levels in the past 24 hours, with the strongest event being an M6.0 flare from Region 3191. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) signature, however, analysis and modeling indicate that no Earth-directed component was produced. A CME was also observed off the southwest limb at 22:00 UTC on January 14, with analysis and modeling suggesting the possibility of a glancing blow on January 19. Solar activity has been at high levels in the 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on January 15, 2023, with the strongest event during this period an M6.0 flare at 03:42 UTC today from Region 3191. This flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity of 223 km/s) and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) signature from the southeast limb. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested no Earth-directed component was produced.1 In addition to this event, significant flare activity was also observed in Region 3182. This region produced an M3.5 at 20:21 UTC on January 14, followed by a long-duration M4.6 at 21:00 UTC. This latest flare showed an EIT wave in SUVI-094 imagery and some ejecta off the WSW limb in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery. A CME was also observed off the southwest limb, first observed after 22:00 UTC on January 14, and was analyzed and modeled with the results suggesting a glancing blow possible on January 19. While minor growth was observed in Regions 3188, 3194, 3193, 3192 and 3191, the remaining numbered active regions were either stable or in gradual decay. Three additional, relatively slow, Type II radio sweeps were reported at 12:46 UTC (estimated velocity 398 km/s) and 23:42 UTC (est. 465 km/s) on January 14, followed by another at 01:37 UTC on January 15 (est. 337 km/s). No Type IV radio sweeps were observed after these events. No additional potentially Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.
The best place to hide during a nuclear blast - Those in the vicinity of a nuclear blast are unlikely to survive, though researchers have some advice for people in farther-away areas: stay out of the hallway. In a study published in Physics of Fluids, scientists simulated an atomic bomb explosion to determine the best and worst places to be in a concrete-reinforced building during such an event. The safest place: the corners of a room, author Ioannis Kokkinakis of Cyprus’ University of Nicosia said in a statement. “Even in the front room facing the explosion, one can be safe from the high airspeeds if positioned at the corners of the wall facing the blast,” Kokkinakis added. Researchers advised those seeking shelter to stay away from windows, doors and corridors, where high airspeeds from the blast wave can cause severe injuries or fatalities — even in sturdy, concrete-reinforced structures. In particular, the close quarters of a hallway can amplify the force of the blast wave, they found. They observed the air from the blast — which reflects off walls and bends around corners — potentially produces a force equivalent to 18 times a human’s body weight.
Past 8 Years have been Hottest on Record, probably Hottest since Time of Christ – The past 8 years are the hottest on record. So concludes The UN’s World Meteorological Organization. In 2022, the average surface temperature of the earth was 1.15 degrees C. [2.07 degrees F.] higher than the average surface temperature of the earth in 1850-1900. So this is the eighth year in a row that average annual temperatures have been at least 1 degree C. [1.8 degrees F.] higher than the average in the late nineteenth century. That finding is alarming because the average surface temperature of the earth includes the oceans and Antarctica and the Himalayan mountains, i.e. freezing cold surfaces. So if the temperature has gone up 2F in 120 years it means even those places have heated up a bit, and it takes an enormous amount of extra energy to heat them. The source of this truly massive amount of extra energy is greenhouse gases in the atmosphere like carbon dioxide and methane, which trap more of the sun’s heat on earth rather than letting it radiate out into space as it used to do. So 2022 was one of the hottest years for which we had mercury thermometers to measure temperature, beginning around 1880. It was so hot despite a cooling La Niña event.This is what the temperature series looks like from 1880 to the present, according to NASA:This graph is based a little differently than the WMO announcement, taking the average world temperature in 1950 as a baseline. You can see that the late nineteenth century was well below that baseline. But the past 8 years have been horrifyingly above it. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year updated eminent climate scientist Michael Mann’s “Hockey Stick” graph. We have only been able directly to observe temperatures for a couple hundred years and it is only from the mid- to late 19th century that there were enough people recording temperatures around the world with mercury thermometers that you can meaningfully amalgamate the figures and reliably estimate average earth temperatures.But scientists have various proxies for knowing how hot or cold the earth was before 1800. For one thing, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere tells you a lot about temperatures, and that can be known from tiny seashells that absorbed CO2. Scientists also can look at ice cores from the Arctic, e.g. So if you estimate temperatures going back to the time of Christ, the graph looks like this: This steady boiling of the earth by our driving gasoline cars and burning coal and gas to heat buildings and make electricity is causing Twilight Zone events to pile up faster than we can even keep up with. In 2022 a mega-flood submerged a third of Pakistan and the Horn of Africa was desiccated by a long-term drought.The WMO warns that only half the world’s 194 countries even have any contingency plans for extreme weather disasters, which are rapidly increasing in frequency and severity.Not only that, but Europe had torrid weather for Christmas and New Year. I grew up in Europe, and I don’t remember it being warm at that time of year. Heck, I don’t remember it being warm in early June when my parents thought swimming lessons in Orleans would be a good idea and when I was turning practically blue and shivering. I always thought Vernon Duke and Yip Harburg, who wrote the song “April in Paris” in 1932, must never have been to Paris in April, which I remembered as a rainy, gloomy, chilly month there. Now my Parisian friends say it is actually nice, which goes to show that over the course of a century sometimes your mistakes get posthumously corrected by fate.But if it goes to 120 degrees F. in the shade in Paris in April, then Vernon and Yip will have had only a fleeting victory.
A 3M Plant in Illinois Was The Country’s Worst Emitter of a Climate-Killing ‘Immortal’ Chemical in 2021 — —At a sprawling 3M chemical manufacturing complex here, where the company makes adhesives for Post-it notes, golf clubs and LCD displays, several hundred pounds of a potent climate killer are vented into the atmosphere each day.The 566-acre facility on the east bank of the Mississippi River, which also makes resins and fluorochemicals, released 73 tons of perfluoromethane (CF4) into the air in 2021, more than any other facility in the country, according to data the company reported to the Environmental Protection Agency. Unlike some PFAS, CF4 is considered non-toxic. But when it comes to warming the climate, CF4 is 7,380 times more potent than carbon dioxide on a pound-for-pound basis over a 100-year period. Releases of the fluorocarbon from the plant in 2021 equal the greenhouse gas emissions of 116,000 automobiles. However, unlike the carbon dioxide of car exhaust, which remains in the atmosphere for an estimated 300-1,000 years, CF4 sticks around, warming the planet, for 50,000 years.Emissions of CF4 from the facility, and their contribution to climate change, may be a tradeoff that the company took to reduce the release of other, more immediately harmful chemicals.The EPA’s Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling considers CF4 to be a per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance, or PFAS, a term more commonly associated with nonstick chemical coatings on pots and pans that have been linked to cancer. However, the EPA’s Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics uses a more restrictive definition for PFAS, which is limited to substances most likely to pose an immediate health concern, and does not include CF4. 3M declined to make anyone available for an interview or a tour of the facility and declined to answer questions about the source of CF4 emissions from the plant.
One in four Americans considering putting off major life decisions out of fear of climate change: survey – A quarter of U.S. adults are considering putting off big life events like having children over concerns about climate change,according to a new survey. The 25,000-person survey crafted by research firm Elabe and the North American branch of Veolia, a water, waste and energy management company, was released Tuesday. While survey participants lived in 25 different countries, Elabe and Veolia took a special interest in gauging U.S. opinions on climate change. Most adults in the U.S. — 80 percent — believe that climate change is taking place, with 60 percent saying they believe the phenomenon is caused by humans, the survey found. Out of the survey participants in the U.S., 510 were women and 490 were men, with over half being between the ages of 18 and 49. U.S. survey participants came from all parts of the country, with 350 reporting they lived in the South, 230 in the West, 220 in the Midwest and 190 in the Northeast. “They share a sense of urgency with the rest of the world,” said President and CEO of Veolia North American Frederic Van Heems about U.S. opinions on climate change. “The results tell us that Americans feel it is time to act, and that they are eager to address the challenges of climate change with innovative solutions that preserve our precious resources.” More than half of U.S. adults — 55 percent — believe that humanity needs to change its “way of life, live more frugally and put in place technological solutions to reduce climate change,” according to the survey. Meanwhile, 52 percent do not think there is enough public conversation about solutions to pollution and climate change. Van Heems added that the results of the study also show that there are many in the U.S. who “remain skeptical” about climate change. Skepticism about climate change in the U.S is higher than the global average, the survey found. In the U.S., 14 percent of adults do not believe the planet’s climate is changing or that anything should be done about it compared to 9 percent globally, according to the survey.
"Distasteful Masterclass In Hypocrisy": Elites Swarm Davos In Private Jets To Discuss Climate Crisis - The annual conference of the World Economic Forum begins today in Davos, Switzerland. Global elites landed in luxurious private jets over the last few days in airports around Davos to discuss important global challenges, such as climate change, behind closed doors. "The rich and powerful are swarming to Davos to discuss climate and inequality behind closed doors using the most unequal and polluting form of transport: private jets," Klara Maria Schenk, transport campaigner for Greenpeace's European mobility campaign, told news website Politics.co.uk. Greenpeace International published a new report that showed 1,040 private jets flew in and out of airports around Davos for last year's meeting, causing CO2 emissions from private jets to increase four times more versus a weekly average. "Given that 80% of the world's population has never even flown, but suffers from the consequences of climate-damaging aviation emissions, and that the WEF claims to be committed to the 1.5°C Paris Climate Target, this annual private jet bonanza is a distasteful masterclass in hypocrisy. Private jets must be consigned to history if we are to have a green, just and safe future for all. So-called world leaders must lead by example and ban private jets and useless short-haul flights," added Schenk.
Davos 2023: UN chief urges 'credible' net-zero pledges or risk greenwashing (Reuters) - U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday called on business leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos to follow the principles outlined by an expert group to make "credible", accountable net-zero pledges. The United Nations and standard setter the International Organization for Standardization launched the guidelines in November to become a reference text and help organisations come up with solid plans, avoiding slogans, hype and obfuscation. While companies are increasingly pledging to cut greenhouse gas emissions to as close as possible to zero, the benchmarks and criteria they use "are often dubious or murky", the U.N. chief told the Davos delegates. "It leaves the door wide open to greenwashing," he said, referring to unsubstantiated claims by some firms that their products are ecologically friendly. He urged the participants: "Put forward credible and transparent transition plans on how to achieve net-zero – and submit those plans before the end of this year." "The transition to net-zero must be grounded in real emissions cuts – and not rely on carbon credits and shadow markets," he said. The green energy transition of world powers has been one of the central themes at the forum in Davos, where the European Union said it would mobilise state aid to keep firms from relocating to the United States as part of its Green Deal industrial plan. Guterres said meaningful engagement on climate, trade and technology between the United States and China - at loggerheads over issues ranging from trade to human rights - was essential to prevent confrontation.
Davos 2023: UN chief urges 'credible' net-zero pledges or risk greenwashing (Reuters) - U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday called on business leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos to follow the principles outlined by an expert group to make "credible", accountable net-zero pledges. The United Nations and standard setter the International Organization for Standardization launched the guidelines in November to become a reference text and help organisations come up with solid plans, avoiding slogans, hype and obfuscation. While companies are increasingly pledging to cut greenhouse gas emissions to as close as possible to zero, the benchmarks and criteria they use "are often dubious or murky", the U.N. chief told the Davos delegates. "It leaves the door wide open to greenwashing," he said, referring to unsubstantiated claims by some firms that their products are ecologically friendly. He urged the participants: "Put forward credible and transparent transition plans on how to achieve net-zero – and submit those plans before the end of this year." "The transition to net-zero must be grounded in real emissions cuts – and not rely on carbon credits and shadow markets," he said. The green energy transition of world powers has been one of the central themes at the forum in Davos, where the European Union said it would mobilise state aid to keep firms from relocating to the United States as part of its Green Deal industrial plan. Guterres said meaningful engagement on climate, trade and technology between the United States and China - at loggerheads over issues ranging from trade to human rights - was essential to prevent confrontation.
Davos Elite Won’t Tackle Climate Crisis and Global Inequalities - - The 2023 World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos started five days ago amid an air of pessimism. Months beforehand, 73% of business leaders surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers had predicted a decline in global growth in the coming year, with inflation, volatility and geopolitical conflict topping the risk list. It is hardly a surprising figure given 2022 ended with global stocks having fallen by nearly 20%, with market losses of $30trn, the worst since 2008.Despite that grim economic forecast, the first three days in Davos were taken up with discussions on EU/US trade issues and then Ukraine, with German chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Zelenskyy the leading speakers.But day three of the summit also saw a speech from UN secretary-general António Guterres, which emphasised the urgent need for radical decarbonisation, as well as the amplification of systemic global inequalities by a “morally bankrupt financial system”. The founder of the Forum, Klaus Schwab, has long wanted it to examine broad global problems, but all too often smaller, specific issues dominate discussion, with matters like Guterres’s concerns over socio-economic divisions and climate breakdown sidelined. The major corporations and opinion formers at Davos are focused on short-term results and shareholder requirements for strong returns, not longer-term challenges.Schwab himself may be critical of traditional shareholder capitalism and keen on what is termed ‘stakeholder responsibility’ or ‘stakeholder capitalism’, which aims to replace the primacy of profitability and shareholder reward with a wider concern over issues such as climate change and economic marginalisation. It may itself be a questionable concept – but in any case there is little evidence of such a transformation being in prospect for the Davos elite.Two glaring examples of lack of change came to light just as the WEF got under way. The first related to one of the few achievements of the COP26 climate summit, the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), a grouping of 450 organisations in 45 countries with assets exceeding $130trn. Its collective aim was for members to align their investments to help limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.However, indications in the past year reveal little change in behaviour. According to Reclaim Finance, among the banks aligned to GFANZ, 56 of the world’s biggest have invested $270bn in fossil fuel corporations for expansion, while the 58 largest members of the asset management grouping within GFANZ retain $847bn in assets in fossil fuel companies.The second example of business as usual was the confirmation of a long-held suspicion that fossil fuel companies have known for decades from their own researchers that climate change is directly linked to fossil fuel combustion.A new study by analysts at Harvard University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reveals that scientists at Exxon, the world’s largest fossil fuel corporation, “were uncannily accurate in their projections from the 1970s onwards, predicting an upward curve of global temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions that is close to matching what actually occurred as the world heated up at a pace not seen in millions of years”.The researchers examined more than 100 company documents and peer-reviewed scientific papers covering the period from 1977 to 2014. Bear in mind that by 1977 campaigners were already arguing for green policies in relation to fossil fuels. The first period of climate concern had come in the mid-1970s after the publication of the seminal ‘Limits to Growth’ back in 1972.Exxon’s response was to do its own studies – with those uncannily accurate conclusions.
‘Big Oil peddled the big lie’: UN chief slams energy giants for ignoring their own climate science - U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday condemned fossil fuel giants for ignoring their own climate science, accusing the oil and gas industry of seeking to expand production despite knowing "full well" that their business model is incompatible with human survival."Some in Big Oil peddled the big lie," Guterres said during a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "And like the tobacco industry, those responsible must be held to account."His comments come shortly after research showed how Exxon Mobil, one of the world's largest oil companies, accurately forecast global heating as long ago as the 1970s only to then spend decades publicly contradicting their own research.The study, published last week in the journal Science, said that Exxon's private projections of global temperature rise were often more accurate than world-leading NASA scientists. Exxon has since denied the accusations.Research papers have previously found that Exxon was aware of the dangers of global heating since the late 1970s, while other oil industry bodies knew of the risks associated with burning fossil fuels since at least the 1950s.The burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, is the chief driver of the climate emergency."Every week brings a new climate horror story," Guterres said, warning that the commitment to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was "going up in smoke." This temperature threshold is the aspirational target set in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement.It is recognized as crucial because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely. These are thresholds at which small changes can lead to dramatic shifts in Earth's entire life support system.Guterres said that without further action, humanity was on course for a global temperature increase of 2.8 degrees Celsius.
John Kerry backs UAE appointment of oil chief to oversee UN climate talks --US climate envoy John Kerry backs the United Arab Emirates’ decision to appoint the CEO of a state-run oil company to preside over the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Dubai, citing his work on renewable energy projects.In an interview Sunday with the Associated Press, the former US secretary of state acknowledged that the Emirates and other countries relying on fossil fuels to fund their state coffers face finding “some balance” ahead.However, he dismissed the idea that Sultan al-Jaber’s appointment should be automatically disqualified due to him leading the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.Activists, however, equated it to asking “arms dealers to lead peace talks”when authorities announced his nomination on Thursday.“I think that Dr Sultan al-Jaber is a terrific choice because he is the head of the company. That company knows it needs to transition,” Kerry said after attending an energy conference in the Emirati capital. “He knows – and the leadership of the UAE is committed to transitioning.”Still, Abu Dhabi plans to increase its production of crude oil from 4m barrels a day up to 5m even while the UAE promises to be carbon neutral by 2050 – a target that remains difficult to assess and one that the Emirates still hasn’t fully explained how it will reach.
John Kerry mocked for speech on WEF's 'almost extraterrestrial plan' to save the planet: ‘Liberal delusions' - Former Secretary of State and current U.S. climate envoy John Kerry turned heads with a speech at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, in which he called himself and his fellow attendees a "select group" with an "almost extraterrestrial" plan to save the planet. Critics reacting to clips of Kerry’s address called it hypocritical and delusional. Kerry gave his remarks before WEF guests Tuesday, speaking in grandiose terms about their plan to save the planet from climate change, which he literally described as out of this world. "When you start to think about it, it's pretty extraordinary that we — select group of human beings because of whatever touched us at some point in our lives — are able to sit in a room and come together and actually talk about saving the planet," he said. "I mean, it's so almost extraterrestrial to think about saving the planet." He added, "If you say that to most people, most people think you're just a crazy, tree-hugging, lefty liberal, you know, do-gooder, or whatever, and there's no relationship. But really, that's where we are." Prominent Twitter users found Kerry’s statements perplexing and arrogant. Canadian psychologist and anti-woke thinker Dr. Jordan Peterson asked Kerry over Twitter, "Who are you going to sacrifice to save the planet @JohnKerry -- and do you think and how will you ensure that they have any say in the matter?" Republican political strategist Jason D. Meister ripped what he called the hypocrisy of the "select group," asking, "Ever wonder why globalist elites like @BarackObama & @JohnKerry love spending millions on mansions on the sea shore built within a few feet of sea level if they’re so worried about climate change causing a melting of the polar ice caps and a dramatic rise in sea level?" Substack.com journalist Etana Hecht remarked, "These people take themselves way too seriously." Businessman and conservative Tim Acheson called Kerry’s words, "Liberal delusions of grandeur." Conservative author Doug Powers ripped Kerry and his colleagues, writing, "Kerry’s ‘select group of human beings’ are psychotic, delusional, narcissistic, Marxist hypocrites trying to get richer by making everybody else more miserable." Radio host Vince Coglianese responded by hitting the "villains" attending WEF alongside Kerry. He wrote, "All the super villains are there — even Jafar!" Anti-green movement activist Larry Behrens blasted Kerry as hypocritical as well, saying, "It's also this ‘select group’ who gets to fly in private jets while demanding you shell out thousands for an EV. John Kerry is one of the most influential people in the Biden Administration and he's also one of the least accountable. And that's saying a lot for that group."
Greta Thunberg rips ‘completely ridiculous’ move to let UAE oil chief lead COP28 - Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg on Thursday knocked the United Arab Emirates’s (UAE) “completely ridiculous” appointment of a state-run oil company chief to lead United Nations climate talks in Dubai at the end of this year. “Lobbyists have been influencing these conferences since forever, and this just puts a very clear face to it. … It’s completely ridiculous,” Thunberg said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, according to CNBC. Climate activists including Thunberg have critiqued the choice of Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., to helm the COP28 climate talks at the end of the year, arguing that al-Jaber’s crude oil–pumping company is a conflict of interest. The UAE, which is one of the planet’s top oil producers, has also come under scrutiny as the host of the U.N. climate talks, since fossil fuels are the main driver of climate change. John Kerry, the U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, said earlier in the week that he backs al-Jaber as the COP28 host, calling the UAE pick a “terrific choice” and highlighting that al-Jaber has been involved in a number of renewable energy projects. The UAE has promised to be carbon neutral by 2050, despite plans to up its output of crude oil.
Nevada lithium mine project gets $700M conditional loan offer from DOE - The U.S. government, on the hunt for domestic sources of lithium to feed the country’s burgeoning battery and electric-vehicle industries, has set its sights on backing a massive lithium mine in western Nevada. The Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office on Friday issued a conditional commitment to lend up to $700 million to Ioneer Ltd.’s Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project. Ioneer, an Australian company, has partnered with South Africa–based mining company Sibanye-Stillwater and a host of other companies to develop the project, one of a handful of lithium mining and extraction sites being pursued in the U.S. Subscribe to receive Canary's latest news The Biden administration has prioritized expanding domestic sources of critical minerals and materials for clean energy manufacturing, both to support its climate agenda and to boost American competitiveness in the international market. Today the vast majority of lithium for lithium-ion batteries is extracted and processed overseas, with Australia dominating hard-rock lithium mining, Chile and Argentina dominating the extraction of the mineral from brines, and China dominating the processing of lithium into battery materials. Demand for lithium is projected to exceed current global production capacity by 2030, driving U.S. automakers to seek “a robust domestic supply of materials to keep pace,” DOE said in Friday’s statement. Once it’s operating at full scale, the Rhyolite Ridge project is expected to be capable of producing enough lithium carbonate to supply about 370,000 EVs per year. Ioneer has signed agreements with a battery joint venture of Ford and SK On, a battery joint venture of Toyota and Panasonic, and battery cathode supplier EcoPro Innovation to buy the lithium carbonate to be processed from the minerals mined at the site. A map of Nevada showing the location of the proposed Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project
States see lithium rush for EVs as environmentalists urge caution - Nevada and other states are poised to rake in huge benefits from a boom in lithium mining for batteries pushed by federal incentives as U.S. demand surges for electric vehicles (EVs). Environmentalists, however, are warning amid investments from the Biden-backed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that a heavy-handed approach to lithium mining could bring many of the same problems associated with fossil fuel extraction. The U.S. holds an estimated 3.6 percent of world lithium reserves, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, but extracting it is a painstaking process that requires infrastructure the U.S. has largely neglected to build since the height of American lithium production in the 1960s. Currently, the U.S. has only one lithium production site — Silver Peak in western Nevada. The sector is dominated by Chile, China and Australia, something the administration hopes to change with billions in new investments. The Inflation Reduction Act passed by congressional Democrats contains a number of tax incentives for EVs and specifically requires their components be built domestically or by U.S. trading partners to qualify, setting the stage for a flurry of new domestic development. “The way that the new EV tax credit is structured, there is a big incentive for domestic mineral extraction and processing,” said Albert Gore, executive director at the Washington-based Zero Emission Transportation Association. “One of the goals of the IRA is to onshore as much of the supply chain for these vehicles as possible, and there are a lot of benefits to that, both economic in terms of job development in the United States, as well as national security and resiliency to supply chain shocks and other macro issues that can affect manufacturing,” he added. Last week, Australian firm Ioneer announced a loan of up to $700 million from the Department of Energy for a new lithium development site in Nevada, conditional on securing the required permits. Australia is among the nations that qualify for the IRA credit. Nevada’s representatives in Congress have been eager to boost domestic lithium production in the state, calling it an engine of job creation. “Nevada is well positioned to take advantage of our nation’s untapped domestic critical mineral supplies, which will create thousands of good-paying jobs, help us combat climate change, and allow us to make more products in America,” Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) told The Hill in a statement. Cortez Masto’s office also pointed to a provision she secured in the bipartisan infrastructure law that establishes EV battery supply chain infrastructure domestically, rather than requiring components to be shipped overseas.
Renewables Projected to Soon Be One-Fourth of US Electricity Generation. Really Soon - Renewable energy is poised to reach a milestone as a new government report projects that wind, solar and other renewable sources will exceed one-fourth of the country’s electricity generation for the first time, in 2024.This is one of the many takeaways from the federal government’s Short Term Energy Outlook, a monthly report whose new edition is the first to include a forecast for 2024. The report’s authors in the Energy Information Administration are expecting renewables to increase in market share, while natural gas and coal would both decrease.From 2023 to 2024, renewables would rise from 24 percent to 26 percent of U.S. electricity generation; coal’s share would drop from 18 percent to 17 percent; gas would remain the leader but drop from 38 percent to 37 percent; and nuclear would be unchanged at 19 percent.It was a big deal in 2020 when generation from renewables passed coal for the first time for a full year. Coal made a comeback in 2021 and then retreated again in 2022. The ups and downs were largely the result of fluctuations in electricity demand during and then after the Covid-19 pandemic.The new report indicates that coal doesn’t have another comeback in the works. This fuel, which was the country’s leading electricity source less than a decade ago, is declining as many coal-fired power plants are old and economically uncompetitive. Coal plants continue to close, and developers aren’t building new ones because of concerns about high costs and emissions. The growth in renewable energy is coming from wind and solar power, with wind responsible for about one-third of the growth and solar accounting for two-thirds, the report says. Other renewable sources, like hydropower and biomass, would be flat. In fact, the growth of wind and solar is projected to be so swift that the combination of just those two sources would be 18 percent of the U.S. total by 2024, which would exceed coal’s 17 percent. A key variable is overall electricity consumption. EIA is projecting that this will fall 1 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, due a mild summer. Then, consumption will increase 1 percent in 2024.
Rapid renewable expansion driving down gas, coal generation in coming years: EIA | S&P Global Commodity Insights - The rapid expansion of renewables in the US electricity generation mix, driven by declining construction costs and favorable tax credits, will reduce coal-fired and natural gas-fired generation over the next two years, according to the US Energy Information Association. Wind and solar will account for 16% of total generation in 2023, doubling from five years ago, according to the EIA. Year over year, coal is forecast to fall 2 percentage points to 18% of the mix in 2023, while gas is expected to fall from 39% to 38%. "One of the most significant shifts in the mix of US electricity generation over the past few years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind," the EIA said in a Jan. 19 statement. Overall, total generating capacity is projected to increase 5.7% between December 2022 and November 2025 with a net increase of 71.391 GW, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's latest Energy Infrastructure Update. During that same time, solar is expected to add 72.809 GW, nearly double all other fuels additions combined. By November 2025, total renewables – wind, solar, hydro, biomass and geothermal – are expected to account for 32.5% of generating capacity across the US, according to FERC projections. The US electric power sector operated about 74 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity at the end of 2022, which is about three times the capacity from 2017, according to the EIA. Based on planned additions reported to EIA, solar capacity is expected to add another 63 GW, or grow by 84%, by the end of 2024, which is consistent with its declining construction costs and favorable tax credits. "As a result of this expected increase in solar capacity, we forecast that the solar generation share will rise from 3% of US generation last year to 5% in 2023 and 6% in 2024," the EIA said. In FERC's projections, 72.809 GW of solar capacity additions are expected by November 2025, which would nearly double the current solar capacity of 78.88 GW to reach 151.69 GW. However, S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Morris Greenberg said renewable project costs are not declining, but rather have been increasing during the past two years – though that is also true of gas projects – and interconnection costs are rising. "In the longer run, the tax incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act will lead to a development boom, again particularly for solar, with offshore wind growth supported by state policy targets," Greenberg said.
ADNOC forms partnership with 44.01 to transform CO2 into rock— ADNOC has formed a partnership with the Fujairah Natural Resources Corporation (FNRC), Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and 44.01 to pilot technology that permanently mineralizes carbon dioxide (CO2) within rock formations found in the Emirate of Fujairah. The announcement was made at the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW). The project, due to commence in January 2023, will use 44.01’s Earthshot prize-winning Carbon Capture and Mineralization (CCM) technology to eliminate CO2 from the atmosphere. It will be the first CCM project by an energy company in the Middle East. In this pilot, CO2 will be captured from the air, dissolved in seawater, and then injected into peridotite formations deep underground. There, it will mineralize, ensuring that it cannot escape back into the atmosphere. Talal Hasan, founder and CEO of 44.01, said, “Removing CO2 from the atmosphere is vital if we are to halt and ultimately reverse climate change. Unlike CO2 storage, mineralization removes CO2 permanently by turning it into rock, minimizing the need for long-term monitoring and insurance. This pilot will enable us to test our technology at scale, on our way to offering a safe, cost-effective, natural solution for eliminating captured CO2 internationally.” The project will be powered by solar energy supplied by Masdar. A successful pilot would open the possibility of mineralizing billions of tons of captured CO2 across the region. Sophie Hildebrand, Chief Technology Officer at ADNOC, said, As the first energy company in the region to run a carbon-negative project of this kind, this pilot marks the latest step in our $15 billion investment into projects that will reduce our carbon footprint and help us achieve our Net Zero by 2050 ambition.”
Landowners gather to hear Democrat, Republican CO2 pipeline concerns - Some Hancock County landowners facing impacts of the proposed Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, many voluntary easement holdouts, may now feel armed with new information. The county’s Republican and Democrat Central Committees jointly held an event to present reasons they are both against the project on Jan. 14 at the Duncan Community Hall. “We probably had close to 100 people,” Hancock County Republican Chair Bud Jermeland said. “I think there were good things shared for people to make plans even if the pipeline does happen. It could help them protect themselves as much as possible. We tried to get a cross-section of people who could provide good information on different topics and I thought we were able to do that.” Alan Bush of the Hancock County Republican Central Committee called the event an opportunity for local landowners and community members to unite in opposition to the project. He noted that the vast majority of 52 Iowa counties to be impacted by the Summit pipeline have filed objections with the Iowa Utilities Board while none have come out in favor of it. “There’s been zero counties that have supported this,” Bush said. “I think that’s pretty impressive.” Bush said CO2 is a valuable commodity, noting that when it is pumped into greenhouses the plants thrive. He also noted that it is vital to industries such as dry-ice making, meat packing, and more. “We don’t have a carbon problem,” Bush said. “You give us carbon and our plants, trees, and crops will grow. It adds value. I believe this is a world and national attempt to control our agriculture. When are we going to say enough is enough?” Gruver Fire Department Chief Dan Harvey since 1991, a town fire fighter there since 1985, shared his concerns of a CO2 pipeline plume study that he and his son developed. He noted that as a farmer and landowner, the proposed Navigator CO2 pipeline is proposed to cut through his farm. Harvey asked that no photos be taken of the plume study, which he said was for a pipeline rupture scenario independent of weather and for use by his fire department that is the largest in Emmitt County and covers a nearly 12-square-mile area. “CO2 needs warm air and wind to dissipate,” Harvey said. “The thing here, if it breaks in the winter, it could just sit around for days.” Harvey said a worst-case scenario would be that the gas sits there, possibly eight feet high, spreads out and causes human decline. He cited concerns that some of his fire fighters would not even be able to get out of their homes, according to the department’s plume study.
Wyoming lawmakers propose ban on electric vehicle sales- A group of GOP Wyoming state lawmakers want to end electric vehicle sales there by 2035, saying the move will help safeguard the oil and gas industries. The measure, introduced to the state legislature on Friday, was sponsored by six state legislators, who said in it that electric vehicles will hinder Wyoming’s ability to trade with other states. The bill states that citizens and industries would be encouraged not to purchase electric vehicles before the ban goes into effect. “The proliferation of electric vehicles at the expense of gas-powered vehicles will have deleterious impacts on Wyoming’s communities and will be detrimental to Wyoming’s economy and the ability for the country to efficiently engage in commerce,” the bill reads. The legislation said that adding new power charging stations would require “massive” amounts of new power to “sustain the misadventure of electric vehicles.” The bill added that the oil industry has employed thousands of people in the state. Fifteen other states, meanwhile, including New York and California, have moved to ban gas-powered vehicle sales. The last clause of the bill instructs Wyoming’s secretary of state to send a copy of the bill to the California governor, who has backed his state’s ban on gas-powered vehicles throughout his governorship.
Green groups, tech companies fight $4B Iowa wind project - -The largest-ever wind energy proposal in Iowa is getting blowback from some of the biggest champions of renewable energy — environmental groups and technology companies hungry for carbon-free power to run their data centers. It’s not that critics don’t want more wind on the grid. But they say the nearly $4 billion that MidAmerican Energy Co. plans to invest almost exclusively in wind power could be better spent, especially considering tax incentives in the federal Inflation Reduction Act that improve the economics of solar energy and battery storage. Josh Mandelbaum, an attorney for the Environmental Law & Policy Center, said the environmental coalition has done its own modeling that shows a different clean energy mix with solar power and battery storage would be cheaper for consumers and better for the environment by enabling faster retirement of some of MidAmerican’s coal plants. “We have concern with just going forward with a $4 billion investment that may take other investment opportunities off the table,” Mandelbaum said in an interview. “We’re particularly concerned when those other investment opportunities might save more money and provide a quicker and cleaner path to the clean energy future.” Des Moines, Iowa-based MidAmerican Energy, a unit of an energy holding company controlled by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., proposed its Wind Prime project a year ago. It includes 2,042 megawatts of wind and 50 MW of solar by 2025 (Energywire, Jan. 21, 2022).The company said the addition would enable it to achieve its vision of providing renewable energy that’s equal to 100 percent of its Iowa customers’ annual electricity use.Last month, the company filed a settlement with two consumer advocates, including a division of the Iowa Department of Justice, that sought to resolve concerns about rate-making terms being sought by MidAmerican. MidAmerican said the agreement would mean an immediate savings of $100 million for electricity customers in 2023, provide rate stability into the future and provide other protections, including cost caps. The settlement also calls for the utility to perform a “resource evaluation study” within two years that would provide a broader study of its generating fleet. The issue before the Iowa Utilities Board isn’t whether MidAmerican can build the wind projects, but who bears the risk of the investment and how costs are passed through to customers. Iowa’s rate-making statute was approved in 2001 and enables state regulators to preapprove rate-making terms for new power projects if utilities meet certain criteria. The policy has been key to making both the state and MidAmerican leaders in wind energy by providing financial certainty to utilities, their investors and customers. Among the requirements to qualify for advanced rate-making, utilities must show they’ve considered other sources of electric supply and that a proposed project is “feasible” compared with other “reasonable sources.”
Climate law fuels solar vs. wind battle - President Joe Biden’s $369 billion climate law promises to drive down the cost of solar power and battery technology — but that new economic landscape could also throw a curveball in regions with big wind plans.Iowa’s largest-ever wind energy proposal is now the subject of fierce criticism from some of the biggest champions of renewable power: environmental groups and tech companies that are eager for carbon-free electricity to run their data centers, writes POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Jeffrey Tomich. Iowa-based utility MidAmerican Energy, a unit of an energy holding company controlled by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, plans to invest nearly $4 billion almost exclusively in wind power. But critics say that money could be better spent, especially considering the tax incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act that reward solar infrastructure.The case is a harbinger of how a new infusion of federal cash could change the economics of low-carbon power and pit sources of clean energy against each other.Modeling performed by the Environmental Law & Policy Center found that adding in more solar power and battery storage to the utility’s energy mix would drive down costs for consumers. Unlike the wind power plan (known as Wind Prime), a more diverse offering would also hasten the retirement of some of MidAmerican’s coal plants, the environmental coalition said. “We have concern with just going forward with a $4 billion investment that may take other investment opportunities off the table,” Josh Mandelbaum, an attorney for the group, told Jeff.MidAmerican officials say the utility considered other sources of power, but the wind expansion is a reasonable way to reach its 100 percent renewable energy target at no extra cost to consumers. MidAmerican is already among the biggest wind power producers in the nation.Critics are not so sure. Some allege that the fidelity to wind power is more about maximizing profit during the energy transition. They say the utility’s plan to close its five coal plants by 2049 is too slow. “Wind Prime is not about decarbonization,” said Devi Glick, a senior principal at Synapse Energy Economics. “Wind Prime’s purpose is to maximize revenues for MidAmerican.”
A risk to Biden's climate law: Depleted agencies - - President Joe Biden’s climate agenda is at risk of getting squeezed between a chronic shortage of federal workers and threats by House Republicans to slash spending.House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), as part of a deal to win his gavel, has signed onto a plan by GOP hardliners to try and roll back discretionary spending to fiscal 2022 levels. That equates to a cut of about $130 billion from current spending levels and is line with new GOP calls to balance the federal budget.Democrats are positioned to kill those proposals in the Senate. But conservatives still hope to use looming deadlines for government funding and the debt ceiling as leverage to extract whatever concessions they can.Such brinkmanship threatens to disrupt federal agencies as they race to do two things at once. The first is to implement Biden’s new climate laws and their rapidly approaching deadlines. The second is to use money from those same laws to rebuild a federal workforce that was shorthanded even before the Trump administration drove out top career employees. EPA, for example, has about 18 percent fewer employees than its peak in fiscal 1999, according to agency data and a spokesperson.Understaffing remains a “horrible problem,” said Jacqueline Simon, policy director for the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest union of federal workers.If Republicans do enforce 2022 spending levels, then “obviously the [climate] law will not be able to be carried out,” she added. “It’s just dollars and cents.” It would be difficult for Republicans to claw back money passed under the Inflation Reduction Act. The money is already out the door, from Congress’ perspective, so it’s not subject to annual appropriations.But Republicans already have signaled they’re willing to try. The first bill brought to the House floor this year sought to unwind the Inflation Reduction Act’s roughly $80 billion boost to the IRS for tax enforcement.“Our very first bill, we repealed 87,000 IRS agents,” McCarthy said last week on Fox News’ “Hannity.” That claim is misleading; the IRS plans to use only a fraction of that money for agents.That bill was dead on arrival in the Senate. But it demonstrates the tactics Republicans intend to deploy against the Inflation Reduction Act, said Rachel Cleetus, policy director with the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.Rather than vote directly on the law’s popular provisions, she said, Republicans are taking the more subtle approach of undermining federal workers.“It is a very pernicious way to go after the implementation of something that’s already been passed,”
Advocates Pitch Community Solar To State Lawmakers. Some Say No - Representatives from the solar power industry spoke to state lawmakers Monday about a community solar bill they’d like to see enacted. Many states have the option of community solar, where residents can receive solar power without having to put panels on their rooftops. Advocates of community solar in West Virginia told members of the Joint Energy Committee Monday that enabling it would lower utility bills and create jobs. “So on day one, every subscriber to a community solar project is saving money and doing it at no risk to the customer," said Richard Caperton, vice president of policy and market development at Arcadia, a community solar company. "They can leave it at any time.” Caperton said West Virginia’s neighbors are embracing the concept. “We’ve got very progressive states and we’ve got red states," he said. And I look at our neighbors, just to the east in Virginia, where (Republican) Gov. (Glenn) Youngkin has made community solar and expanding community solar a part of his energy plan for the state.” Adam Edelen, the founder and CEO of Edelen Renewables and the former auditor of Kentucky, said he’d be willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in community solar in West Virginia. “Because the truth of the matter is, there’s nothing more compelling than a green energy project in a coal producing state,” he said. Some lawmakers from coal-producing counties said they’d fight it. “I’ve got a bag of pixie dust for you. It’s actually coal, OK," said Republican Sen. Rupie Phillips of Logan County. “The sun don’t always shine. So what do you do? You’ve got so many coal-fired power plants have shut down because of this fairy tale story.”
Conn. HOAs can no longer block solar installations - Kenneth McKinney took notice of the south-facing back roof before buying his Granby, Connecticut, home about two years ago. That roof, he thought, is ideal for solar panels. So after he and his wife, Maribeth, moved into the new home in the Copper Brook Circle planned community, He asked nearby neighbors if they had any objections to a view of panels on his back roof. Hearing none, last October he approached the executive board of the homeowner’s association. And that’s where the project came to a halt. After seeking feedback from other homeowners in the 34-home community, the board told McKinney it was rejecting his request. In a December email to McKinney, board president Robert Picard said the board felt “that any decision relative to solar panels should not be rushed into and not considered until a specific and well thought out plan for Copper Brook is developed.” Ultimately, Picard said, a solar panel policy “will be decided by a vote of the homeowners unless mandated by law.” But as it turns out, Connecticut does have such a mandate, though few people are aware of it. “This is one of the best-kept secrets from the past legislative session,” said Mark Scully, president of People’s Action for Clean Energy, or PACE.Buried in the 35-page Connecticut Clean Air Act, or Senate Bill 4, is a provision that prohibits common interest communities from adopting or enforcing rules that would prevent any unit owner from installing a solar generating system on their roof. The law also includes so-called right-to-charge provisions, outlining the rights of condo owners and renters to install electric charging equipment in a garage or dedicated parking space. Condominiums are exempt from the rooftop solar provision. Previously, Connecticut was the only New England state without some sort of law restricting homeowners’ associations from banning rooftop solar. Andrea Dunn, a lawyer and vice chair of the legislative advocacy committee for the state chapter of the Community Associations Institute, said the provision came up unexpectedly last session when it seemed lawmakers were “throwing everything into this Clean Air Act.” She said her organization worked with former state Sen. Will Haskell on the provision’s wording. “It’s been looming,” Dunn said. “The last five years this has been coming down the pike. I’ve been prepping my communities to keep it in mind because we’re going to have to be doing this.” The provision allows associations to adopt rules governing the size and manner of installing rooftop solar, as well as the unit owner’s responsibilities for upkeep and maintenance. Associations are also allowed to establish prohibitions on any unit owner installing solar on shared common elements of the community. Dunn says associations will have to address solar in much the same way they did satellite dishes years ago. “They can’t really say no, but they can say where you can place [the dish]. When you leave, you have to take it off. If you damage the roof, you have to fix the roof,” she said. “I imagine solar is going to go the same route as that.”
A startup with ties to Alliant is building a wind blade recycling plant - A startup with ties to Alliant Energy said it's building a plant near Cedar Rapids that will recycle decommissioned wind turbine blades, preventing the spent equipment from going into landfills and addressing critics' challenges that wind energy is environmentally friendly. Travero, an Alliant subsidiary, is spinning off a new business called REGEN Fiber. The startup announced Thursday it's building a plant in Fairfax that will convert used wind turbine blades into reusable materials that increase the strength and durability of concrete, mortar and other products. REGEN Fiber said it has a patent pending for an "eco-friendly process" that it piloted last year at a facility in Des Moines. Suppliers shred the decommissioned blades into smaller pieces that are delivered to REGEN Fiber for processing into products for customers, the company said. Unlike existing process, the blades are processed without using heat or chemicals, it said. “With tremendous growth projected in the wind industry and an increasing number of turbines already reaching the end of their approximately 20-year lifespan, REGEN Fiber is entering the market at the perfect time,” said according to Jeff Woods, Travero's director of business development, in a statement. The American Clean Power Association said the United States has nearly 70,000 wind turbines. Nearly 60% of Iowa's energy in 2021 came from wind energy, the largest share nationally, according to the Energy Information Administration. REGEN said the Des Moines facility is now recycling scrap materials from the production of new wind turbine blades at a commercial scale. The fiber is used in asphalt and other products. REGEN declined to say where the Des Moines facility is located, given its proprietary process.
The Renewable Energy Problem That No One Talks About - An obvious barrier to adopting wind and solar power for electricity supply is their intermittency - when the wind isn’t blowing, and the sun isn’t shining, substitute sources are required. This issue is given much attention by conservative media, as it should. Yet one of the less well-known roadblocks for these renewable technologies is frequency control, even though it becomes a critical concern much sooner. Since the 1890s, electricity networks and devices all around the globe have used alternating current (AC) systems, which means that the flow of electricity in the system is repeatedly changing direction. In Australia, it alternates 50 times a second, that is, at a frequency of 50 Hertz (in the USA, it is 60 Hertz). Supplying electricity at a consistent frequency is very important because appliances and electronics on the network are designed for a specific frequency/voltage input. Therefore, they can be damaged by the wrong electricity supply. As a rule, networks would rather supply no electricity than bad electricity. Automated controls through the electricity system will disconnect the supply if the frequency or voltage is “off-spec.” South Australians will not soon forget when this happened to the entire state network in 2016. The state-wide blackout started late in the afternoon during some poor weather conditions, and thousands of people had to drive out of the city without any streetlights or traffic signals. There were a range of contributing causes, including gusty winds taking down some transmission lines and a lightning strike on a power station. After those physical causes, automated protection systems took over. Wind turbines disconnected themselves from the network. The system naturally started drawing more load from all remaining supplies, which maxed out the capacity of the interconnector to the rest of the East Coast network, which consequently disconnected. From that point, the shutdowns cascaded throughout the whole network. This all happened in less than a second. Traditional generators use turbines—steam turbines, open-cycle turbines, and water turbines (hydroelectricity). This equipment is called “synchronous” because the frequency of the electricity they produce is directly linked to the speed that the shafts of the turbines rotate. Because these machines are large and heavy, it takes time and energy to speed them up or slow them down, which means that the frequency of the electricity cannot change too quickly. This is called “inertia.” As you may imagine, solar panels, having no moving parts, do not provide inertia. They match whatever frequency is already in the system; they do not help stabilise it. Wind turbines, though they do have large spinning components, change speed all the time merely due to wind conditions. Hence they are not designed to synchronise with the AC network. So they do not provide inertia either. If a system does not have inertia, then instead of gently responding to a change in load, the frequency can flail about like a cyclist getting speed wobbles (any engine can have the same problem if it doesn’t have a sufficiently heavy flywheel).
Vegetable Oil Is Gaining Traction As A Biofuel -Interest in biofuels has exploded in recent years, and as governments pursue both energy security and lower emissions, that interest is only rising. Following a flurry of new climate policies worldwide, energy companies are looking to reduce their emissions while ensuring the stability of their legacy businesses. Meanwhile, countries around the world are looking for energy sources that can be secured domestically. The U.K. and Mexico are two such countries, with both of them now looking to vegetable oil as a potential energy source for heating and transport. The use of cooking oils and animal fat in biofuel production is not a new concept, as several refiners in the U.S. use these products to produce fuels that entitle them to government tax credits. When gasoline demand plunged during the pandemic, oil companies were able to continue operations at their refineries by converting them to produce biofuels and taking the valuable government credits that came with them. The feedstocks came from used cooking oil and animal fat, which are typically deemed to be worthless – although they are sometimes hard to procure for that exact reason.Biodiesel, which is generally viewed as cleaner and more effective in engines than SVO, is produced by a chemical process called transesterification, which involves a reaction with methanol using caustic soda as a catalyst. This reduces the viscosity and boiling point of the fuel, making it more like that of traditional diesel fuel. Most diesel vehicle automakers have approved the use of B5, a mix of 95 percent petroleum diesel and 5 percent biodiesel. And some manufacturers are making engines capable of running on B20 (20 percent biodiesel and 80 percent traditional diesel) or higher. However, the shift to using greater quantities of biodiesel has been slow to take off, with companies generally focusing on other green vehicle options, such as electric and HFCV.But in recent months, the idea of using vegetable oil as a feedstock has gained more traction. In the UK, politicians are proposing the use of vegetable oil for heating in rural areas. A new bill encouraging the removal of duties on renewable liquid heating fuels, as well as incentives to reduce the use of kerosene in existing boilers, is being introduced to parliament by the former environment secretary George Eustice.Around 1,7 million homes in the U.K. still rely on kerosene boilers, as they are not connected to the mains gas grid. There are already plans in place to ban the buying of new boilers from 2026, as homes switch to air-source or ground-source heat pump systems, but this new bill could help boost the uptake of green alternatives to kerosene between now and then. Eustice suggests that fitting new heating systems can be extremely costly, creating a “huge barrier” to uptake. This new bill would support homes across the country in the minor adaption of kerosene boilers to make them suitable to run on hydro-treated vegetable oil (HVO), which could reduce related greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 88 percent, according to Eustice.Meanwhile, in Mexico, there has been a major push to expand the use of biofuels from cooking oil for public transportation. Mexico’s public transport sector continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, with few incentives from the government to switch to less-polluting alternatives. But Jorge Tenorio, the CEO of Renov Biodiesel, suggests that biodiesel could be the alternative needed to power the transport system of the future. He explains, “The main raw material currently used in Mexico to produce biodiesel is used cooking oil. For every litre of recycled oil collected, one litre of biodiesel is produced, which is cheaper than the traditional diesel produced by PEMEX.” And the Advanced Biodiesel Cluster (BDA) of the Mexican Centre for Energy Innovation believes that 360 million liters of used oil could be obtained in cities of over 100,000 inhabitants, with the potential of providing a low-cost, clean alternative to diesel.
The New Soldiers in Propane’s Fight Against Climate Action: Television Stars - For D.I.Y. enthusiasts, Matt Blashaw is a familiar face, judging bathroom remodels or planning surprise home makeovers on popular cable television shows. Mr. Blashaw also has an unusually strong opinion about how Americans should heat their homes: by burning propane, or liquid petroleum gas. “When I think of winter, I think of being inside. I think of cooking with the family, of being by a roaring fire — and with propane, that is all possible,” he said on a segment of the CBS affiliate WCIA, calling in from his bright kitchen. “That’s why we call it an energy source for everyone.” Less well known is the fact that Mr. Blashaw is paid by a fossil fuel industry group that has been running a furtive campaign against government efforts to move heating away from oil and gas toward electricity made from wind, solar and other cleaner sources. The Propane Education and Research Council, or PERC, which is funded by propane providers across the country, has spent millions of dollars on “provocative anti-electrification messaging” for TV, print and social media, using influencers like Mr. Blashaw, according to the group’s internal documents viewed by The New York Times. As a federally-sanctioned trade association, PERC is allowed to collect fees on propane sales, which helps fund its marketing campaigns. But according to the law that created this system, that money is supposed to be used for things like research and safety. In 2023, the organization plans to spend $13 million on its anti-electrification campaign, including $600,000 on “influencers” like Mr. Blashaw, according to the documents, which were obtained from PERC’s website as well as a public records request by the Energy and Policy Institute, a pro-renewables group. The overwhelming majority of scientists around the globe agree that the burning of coal, gas and oil produces greenhouse gases that are dangerously heating the planet. Scientists commissioned by the United Nations have warned that nations must deeply and quickly cut those emissions to avoid a catastrophic escalation of deadly flooding, heat waves, drought and species extinction. The propane industry sees things differently. It needs to “combat the growing narrative that fossil fuel combustion is the main cause of climate change, and that propane is a dirty fossil fuel,” Stuart Weidie, chairman and chief executive of North Carolina propane company Blossman Gas, told the propane council at a February 2021 meeting.
Chellie Pingree wants federal probe into ‘propane propaganda’ -- U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree called this week for a federal investigation in response to a New York Times story finding a propane industry group has used sales fees to combat government efforts to move away from oil and gas. The Propane Education and Research Council is expected to spend $13 million on its anti-electrification campaign in 2023, the newspaper reported, including $600,000 to influencers like HGTV’s Matt Blashaw. Some of the money comes from fees on sales that are supposed to go to the federally sanctioned trade group to fund research and marketing.On a TV segment, Blashaw said his vision of winter was cooking with his family and being by a roaring fire, two things possible with propane, which he called “an energy source for everyone.”“This disingenuous campaign has dire consequences for states like mine,” she wrote in a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, saying this use of the sales fees may violate the law. “Mainers face long, rough winters where cost-effective heating is essential.” Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and her Republican predecessor and 2022 rival, Paul LePage, have been advocates for electric heat pumps. They are now the subject of state and federal incentive programs, but Maine remains the state most dependent on heating fuel despite considerable progress in shifting away from it in the last decade.Propane is a bigger part of the energy mix here than in most other states, particularly because natural gas is not widely available here. Natural gas stoves have been in the news recently after a U.S. safety official said they should be regulatedbecause of links to asthma and cardiovascular disease. Propane may also be harmful, though it has lower emissions.
Environmental group sues New York for approving crypto mining facility - Environmental activists filed a lawsuit against a New York state agency on Friday for approving a cryptocurrency mining company’s takeover of an upstate power plant. The group said the move violates the state’s landmark climate law that was passed in 2019 and the lawsuit is the first to test how energy-intensive crypto mining legally holds up against the state’s climate goals. In September, the New York Public Service Commission (PSC), which oversees and regulates public utilities, greenlit the takeover of the Fortistar power plant in North Tonawanda, a town close to Niagara Falls, by Canadian crypto mining company, Digihost. The Clean Air Coalition of Western New York and the Sierra Club, represented by the non-profit Earthjustice, argued in their filing to the supreme court of Albany county that the PSC’s approval of the transfer violated the state’s sweeping climate law, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), that was passed in 2019. The act set ambitious targets for the state, including having 70% of the state’s electricity generated by renewable energy by 2030, zero-emissions electricity by 2040 and an 85% reduction in statewide emissions by 2050. In their lawsuit, Clean Air and the Sierra Club said that the Fortistar plant was used as a “peaker” plant that would run 10 to 74 days a year, only when there was high demand for electricity, like in cold winters and hot summers. As a crypto mining plant, the facility would be running 24/7, producing up to 3,000% more greenhouse emissions, according to the court filings. The groups argue the CLCPA broadly requires the state to conduct environmental reviews when making approvals and decisions, to ensure the state will ultimately meet its climate goals. The PSC “refused to consider the CLCPA and its requirements” when undergoing the approval process, which started in April 2021, according to the court filing. Along with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the groups argue that several communities around the Fortistar plant have been designated as possible “disadvantaged communities” under the state’s climate law, meaning those living in the area bear greater environmental burdens and have experienced historical disinvestment. The law “requires all state agencies – including the [commission] – to consider greenhouse gas emissions and impacts to disadvantaged communities when considering administrative approvals and decisions,” said the court filing. “If such an action would threaten the CLCPA’s greenhouse gas reduction mandates, it cannot proceed without a justification.”
Maryland state government gives wrist-slap fine to CSX railroad for massive Baltimore coal explosion --On December 23, the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE) announced a settlement with transportation company CSX. The settlement addressed a series of air pollution violations caused by the company after a severe explosion occurred at its Baltimore facility in December 2021. The explosion occurred at a CSX coal terminal on Benhill Avenue in Baltimore on December 30, 2021, several hundred feet outside the Curtis Bay community. Videos of the incident, still on YouTube, show a massive explosion sending flames up into the sky that can be seen right outside the plant, along with a shockwave that followed. At 11:47 a.m., local Baltimore firefighters tweeted,, “Shockwave could be felt Citywide” and “Hazmat, Special Rescue Units & Fireboats on scene. STAY AWAY FROM THE AREA!” The Baltimore Sun, reporting on the explosion a few days afterward, said that the explosion resulted from ignition as coal moving into a transfer tower within the facility met with the methane and dust in the atmosphere. The settlement required CSX to pay a penalty of $15,000 to MDE and $100,000 to the South Baltimore Community Land Trust. The non-profit trust is partnered with the Curtis Bay Community Association to help fund a community project to rehabilitate a vacant building for use as an environmental education and training center. Early last year, investigations were launched by both federal and local authorities to look into how the explosion happened. These revealed CSX’s negligence in ensuring a safe environment for the workers and the community. Following the investigations, Curtis Bay residents also took separate legal action against CSX.
Greta Thunberg detained amid protests at coal mine in Germany | The HillGerman authorities detained Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg on Tuesday amid protests at a coal mine in the country. A spokesperson for the local Aachen police told Sky News the 20-year-old activist was among a group of protesters who allegedly “stormed” toward the face of the Garzweiler open-cast mine, which officials described as “steep and extremely dangerous.” According to multiple reports, authorities said at least one protester jumped into the mine, while not detailing whether the individual suffered any injuries. Thunberg was carried away from the area by several police officers, Reuters reported, adding she was later seen sitting alone inside a police bus. “Greta Thunberg was part of a group of activists who rushed towards the ledge,” the Aachen police spokesperson told Reuters. “However, she was then stopped and carried by us with this group out of the immediate danger area to establish their identity.” The Aachen police spokesperson noted that Thunberg, along with other activists who were detained by authorities, will be released later in the day. “There is no reason to hold them for days,” the spokesperson told Reuters. “It might take hours or they will go immediately.” Thunberg was detained two days after also being removed by German authorities at the coal mine. Authorities removed Thunberg and other demonstrators from the village of Lützerath on Sunday after officials said they refused to comply with their efforts to clear the area. Demonstrators have protested the pending demolition of the coal village for the extension of the Garzweiler coal mine. >Germany’s reliance on coal for electricity has increased in the past year due to restrictions on gas and oil imports from Russia amid the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine and also the shutdown of nuclear plants in the country, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported.
Greta Thunberg released after brief detention at German mine protest, police say - (Reuters) - Climate campaigner Greta Thunberg was detained alongside other activists on Tuesday during protests against the demolition of a village to make way for a coal mine expansion but was released after an identity check, according to police. Thunberg was held while protesting at the opencast coal mine of Garzweiler 2, some 9 km (5.6 miles) from the village of Luetzerath, after police warned that the group would be removed by force if they did not move away from the edge of the mine. The village in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia is being cleared to allow for the expansion of the mine. The mine's owner, RWE, agreed with the government that it could demolish Luetzerath in exchange for its faster exit from coal and the saving of five villages originally slated for destruction. Activists have said Germany should not be mining any more lignite, or brown coal, and should focus on expanding renewable energy instead.
Ohio House ex-speaker's trial in $60M bribery probe to begin (AP) — Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder goes on trial next week in the highest-profile reckoning yet to arise from a $60 million federal bribery investigation that federal prosecutors call the largest corruption case in state history.The 2 1/2 years since the Republican’s arrest have seen the toppling of a Fortune 500 energy company’s CEO and other executives, the resignation of Ohio’s top utility regulator amid FBI scrutiny, and Householder’s ouster as speaker and his subsequent expulsion as state representative — the first in Ohio in 150 years.Emerging details have brought the case ever closer to the office of Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine — though without implicating him personally or hurting Ohio Republicans’ electability — and made clear the case’s potential for clarifying federal law on operating a 501(c)4 “dark money” group. When it comes to a dark money group, “the two things it’s not supposed to be: Its primary activity’s not supposed to be political, and it’s not supposed to be used to the benefit of a particular individual,” former U.S. Attorney David DeVillers, who initially brought the case, said at a forum Wednesday. An indictment alleged Householder, former Ohio Republican Party chair Matt Borges, three other people and a dark money group called Generation Now orchestrated an elaborate scheme, secretly funded by FirstEnergy, to secure Householder’s power, elect his allies, pass legislation containing a $1 billion bailout for two aging nuclear power plantsUnder a deal to avoid prosecution, Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. admitted to using dark money groups to fund the scheme and bribing the utility regulator. It has also fired half a dozen executives and regrouped. Surcharges slated to be tacked onto electricity bills statewide to pay for the bailout were eliminated in a partial repeal of the legislation in 2021 and never charged.Two Householder associates and a related nonprofit pleaded guilty to their roles and await sentencing. A third defendant who pleaded not guilty died by suicide.
Panelists discuss dark money and utility corruption in Ohio - Ohio Capital Journal --The upcoming trial of former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder hung heavy over Wednesday’s meeting of the Columbus Metropolitan Club. The forum discussing dark money and utility corruption in Ohio brought together reporter Kathiann Kowalski, former Ohio utility commissioner Ashley Brown, and former U.S. Attorney David DeVillers. Jo Ingles from the Statehouse News Bureau moderated the panel.Next week, Householder will be in court facing charges in the largest corruption case in the state’s history. At its heart is House Bill 6, an energy bailout pushed through the state legislature by Householder. He allegedly bankrolled that effort, and his speaker bid, with $60 million that originated with utilities like FirstEnergy and AEP and passed through 501(c)(4) dark money groups. Householder has pleaded not guilty.DeVillers, who as U.S. attorney indicted Householder, acknowledged the case might not change the campaign finance landscape in the long run. But in the more immediate term, he argued it has brought more scrutiny.“So, this is the bottom line,” DeVillers said, “I think that in the short term, I hope that prosecutors and agencies look at these things and scrutinize these (things) as the perfect animal, the perfect entity, to launder money.”Kowalski, meanwhile, worried the trial’s outcome will determine any impact.“If Householder and (codefendant Matt) Borges are not found guilty, I would be afraid you would have more entrenchment in the use of dark money,” she said. “If they are found guilty, I think there may be this higher level of scrutiny David (DeVillers) referred to, but I think a lot is going to depend on the outcome of the trial.”
How sports betting, nuclear bailouts and undercover FBI agents collided in Ohio’s historic public corruption scandal - cleveland.com - It was early 2019 when two FBI agents and a former NFL player hired as an informant sat for a meeting in the office of a lobbyist who they suspected was a crook.The gathering was organized to discuss influencing sports betting legislation in Ohio. But after the undercover agents and the lobbyist moved to a nearby steakhouse, the conversation turned to Larry Householder, at the time the newly chosen speaker of the Ohio House. Householder is on trial next week on allegations of running a $60 million racketeering enterprise to pass House Bill 6 in 2019, a public corruption case prosecutors have described as the largest in state history. Two alleged conspirators have pleaded guilty, as has one nonprofit used in the scheme. FirstEnergy Corp., an Akron-based Fortune 500 utility company, admitted to prosecutors that it paid off Householder, who will be tried alongside Matt Borges, a lobbyist and former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party. In a case bogged down in the finer points of campaign finance and utility law, the FBI agents’ cloak and dagger approach yielded statements the government is using as express proof of the men’s participation in a bribery scheme.“Nobody knows the money goes to the Speaker’s account,” Neil Clark, a powerful GOP lobbyist, allegedly told the undercovers in one of their many conversations. “It is controlled by his people.”Clark, who was criminally accused of serving as Householder’s proxy in the scheme, was the lobbyist at the table on Jan. 10, 2019. He was joined by two agents operating undercover as real estate developers from Nashville using the names “Brian Bennett” and “Rob Miller” and former Cincinnati Bengals free safety turned real estate developer Chinedum Ndukwe, who was paid at least $27,000 by the FBI around that time.The trio was already on its way to closing a successful corruption investigation. Ndukwe and the agents were in the middle of another undercover operation, one that would ensnare then-Cincinnati Councilman and Democratic rising star P.G. Sittenfeld. He was convicted last year of bribery and attempted extortion after all three testified at his trial.John Rabenold, a payday lending lobbyist, introduced Clark to the purported investors. According to Clark, Rabenold claimed they wanted to place sports betting terminals in a boutique hotel development that Bennett,Miller and Ndukwe said they were working on.Through the course of 2019, the full-time FBI agents met Clark and talked on the phone repeatedly with him. As the FBI recorded Clark’s phone calls, its agents met with him and eventually Householder himself.The precise nature of the connection between HB6 and sports betting remains unclear, but court records indicate many interactions between Clark and the undercover agents revolved around both subjects in tandem rather than just one or the other.
DeWine, Ohio Republicans redefine natural gas as ‘green energy’ in service to fossil fuel industry - Folks in my line of work are wise to the “Friday night news dump.” It’s an old tactic used by politicians and PR types who have to release unfavorable news they don’t want anyone to see. They know newsrooms are emptying and fewer eyes are scanning media alerts at quitting time. The strategy is to deep-six damaging news and dodge political blowback with a cache of press statements dumped at 5 p.m. Friday and no returned calls. Recently Gov. Mike DeWine used the tried and true ploy to evade fallout from legislation he signed into law for one of his biggest campaign contributors at the expense of Ohio State Parks. As a fully purchased subsidiary of the fossil fuel industry, DeWine blessed an industry-friendly bill maneuvered on the sly through the lame duck session by Ohio Senate Republicans without public input or review. Not good. Senators tucked two last-minute amendments into an unrelated House bill and passed them in a hurry. One forced state agencies to open up state parks and forested lands for expanded oil and gas drilling. Basically lawmakers cleared the way for a no-exception leasing process to jump-start fracking operations eager to cash in on our natural resources. The amendment, tweeted the Ohio Environmental Council, “removes critical public oversight and locks in polluters’ control over what public lands in Ohio are leased and when.” Republicans also inserted a provision that lined up perfectly with fossil fuel “misinformation campaigns designed to brand natural gas as ‘green energy.’” They lumped natural gas into the same legal classification as “green energy” or renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and water. For the record, natural gas, which is primarily methane, is a greenhouse gas whose global warming potential is 86 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. And leaked methane emissions have dramatically increased in the U.S. as natural gas fracking has boomed as a “clean” replacement for other fossil fuels. So redefining a potent and dangerous fossil fuel gas whose toxic emissions are driving climate change as “green energy” is, well, patently absurd and scientifically nuts.
Lobbying, ‘dark money’ were behind Ohio law rebranding natural gas as ‘green energy,’ records show - cleveland.com - – A dark money nonprofit linked to the natural gas industry pushed for legislation redefining methane-based fuel as “green energy” months before it was introduced and passed in a 36-hour legislative sprint, records show. Gov. Mike DeWine signed legislation earlier this month that will make it easier to drill for oil and gas in state parks. That bill also legally redefines natural gas as “green energy.” Natural gas is a fossil fuel and significant source of climate change. The term “green energy” typically refers to electricity derived from renewable sources like the sun or the wind.
How dark money groups led Ohio to redefine gas as ‘green energy’ - The Washington Post -When Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) signed a bill this month to legally redefine natural gas as a source of “green energy,” supporters characterized it as the culmination of a grass-roots effort to recognize the Buckeye state’s largest energy source.“It’s green. It’s clean. And it’s abundant right under our feet, right here in Ohio,” Rep. Troy Balderson (R-Ohio) wrote in an opinion piece in the Columbus Dispatch.But Ohio’s new law is anything but homegrown, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post. The Empowerment Alliance, a dark money group with ties to the gas industry, helped Ohio lawmakers push the narrative that the fuel is clean, the documents show. The American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, another anonymously funded group, assisted in the effort.ALEC — a network of state lawmakers, businesses and conservative donors — circulated proposed legislation for Ohio lawmakers and has urged other states to follow suit, according to the documents, which were obtained via a public records request by the Energy and Policy Institute, a group that advocates for renewable energy.“What the emails reveal is just how closely Ohio lawmakers coordinated with a natural gas industry group on the new law that misleadingly defines methane gas as green energy, as the first step of a plan to introduce similar legislation in multiple states,” said Dave Anderson, policy and communications manager for the Energy and Policy Institute.Although Ohio Republicans say they are trying to promote their state’s energy industry, critics have called the new law misleading and“Orwellian.” Unlike renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, natural gas and other fossil fuels emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases. Leading scientists have said the world must rapidly phase out fossil fuels to avert the worst consequences of unchecked climate change.The law also adds to a fierce linguistic debate, one amped up by the recent furor over gas stoves and their health impacts. Climate activists have urged politicians and journalists to stop using the term “natural gas” and instead use the phrase “methane gas,” since its primary component is a powerful planet-warming pollutant.Last summer, the documents show, a leader of the Empowerment Alliance emailed Ohio state Sens. George Lang (R) and Mark Romanchuk (R) to share a report from Goldman Sachs on the “importance of natural gas” in North America and globally.“We are on the right track with natural gas is green energy,” wrote Tom Rastin, who leads the Empowerment Alliance with his wife, Karen Buchwald Wright.As of last fall, Rastin and his wife were listed in Federal Election Commission filings as executives at Ariel Corporation, a manufacturer of natural gas compressors. The couple also are major Republican donors who have dined with former president Donald Trump. Under their leadership, the alliance spent more than $1 million supporting Ohio Republicans in the 2022 election.
Republican legislators, oil and gas industry, hid like chickens as they redefined natural gas as ‘green energy’ - cleveland.com -- In the span of 24 hours of a substantially altered substitute bill, Ohio Senate Republicans passed legislation to expand oil and gas drilling on state lands, including state parks, and created a novel definition of “green energy” to include natural gas and any energy that “is more sustainable and reliable relative to some fossil fuels.” This vague definition could allow almost anything to qualify.For example, one could argue that methane with its high CO2 emissions or nuclear energy with its radioactive waste qualifies because it is more sustainable and reliable relative to coal. It eviscerates the true definition of green energy that refers to renewable energy such as solar, wind and hydro.Further, in a nose-thumbing to Ohio’s Constitutional Home Rule provisions, it prohibits municipalities from banning pesticides.They hid this gem in HB 507, “the chicken bill” which addresses chickens, rabbits and other food processing issues, a move no doubt to hide these actions from the public and those watching energy and environmental issues.This is a clear example of governmental capture, which is “a form of corruption of authority that occurs when a political entity, policymaker, or regulator is co-opted to serve the commercial, ideological, or political interests of a minor constituency. … When regulatory capture occurs, a special interest is prioritized over the general interests of the public, leading to a net loss for society.”A defense offered by legislators was that Europe had done something similar (Senate passes bill expanding drilling on state land; dubbing gas ‘green energy,’ Dec. 7). That is like your kid caught smoking countering with “Johnny was smoking too.” It is just plain wrong.And what Europe did is not what Ohio did. In Europe, gas was included as a temporary bridge for some countries that could not transition quickly enough from coal to renewables. The definitions were for investors to determine sustainability. The central debates in Europe remain about what qualifies as zero or low-carbon hydrogen.Further, there are arguments and studies demonstrating that gas is not more sustainable relative to some fossil fuels, so including gas is an error.If Ohio policymakers honestly care about our energy future, the way forward is not natural gas orany other fossil fuel.With global warming wreaking havoc across the nation and the world and scientific evidence that it will only get worse, now is the moment to wean us from fossil fuel, instead of lighting a match to the earth by promoting its expansion.
Opinion: Columbia Gas' plan will strip away critical savings tools as costs climb - The Columbus Dispatch - Over many years, Columbia Gas has been a great example in the Midwest of a utility providing strong energy efficiency programs for its customers.The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, where I serve as a Senior Fellow, has often pointed to the Columbus-based utility as an industry leader.That is why we are so surprised by and disappointed at the settlement proposal Columbia Gas has submitted to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (Case No. 21-637-GA-AIR).If the PUCO approves this plan, it will not only end the bulk of Columbia’s energy efficiency programs. It would also end Columbia’s role as an industry leader in helping their customers save energy.Energy efficiency programs run by utilities — such as Columbia Gas — have a great proven record.By providing customers incentives to purchase energy-efficient equipment or make other energy-saving home upgrades, they save households and businesses money on energy bills. They also create jobs and reduce emissions that pollute the air and harm people’s health.Columbia Gas’ proposal would end all of their programs, except for one that just helps low-income customers. This proposal would strip Ohio families and businesses of tools they can use to reduce their utility bills at a time when gas prices are on the rise and price volatility is setting all-time records. Moreover, and quite incredibly, their proposal attempts to go far beyond the legitimate scope of this case by including the following restriction on Columbia Gas’ future public pronouncements and policy positions:They would not just be killing their own programs. They would actually be committing to a public policy position of not supportingothers who might pursue policies for energy efficiency programs.That provision would seem way out-of-bounds for anything that would be officially certified by a government agency such as PUCO. We certainly hope the PUCO rejects it or any similar provision.Finally, there is one other harmful aspect of Columbia’s proposal we would oppose.That is the request for a dramatic increase in the monthly “fixed charge” that customers face. Columbia’s plan would increase the current total fixed charges from about $37 to over $56 a month. Reducing your gas usage will not lower this cost for you. That kind of increase is unfair to customers who are trying to reduce their bill by being more energy efficient, and would be particularly harmful for low-income customers. This proposal for Columbia Gas contains several provisions that are especially inappropriate at a time when customers are facing high natural gas prices and are particularly in need of programs to help them become more energy efficient. We urge the PUCO to protect the people of Ohio from this unneeded and harmful request.
Columbia Gas seeks approval for natural gas pipeline for Intel - — Columbia Gas of Ohio is asking for expedited state approval to build a natural gas pipeline in Licking County where Intel, the multinational technology company, is building two fabrication facilities, also called fabs. “Because our pipeline to serve Intel is less than five miles, we're able to go through the accelerated application process versus their standard application process,” said Ellen Macke, the director of government and public affairs for Columbia Gas of Ohio.Macke said the pipeline project is still waiting for approval from the Ohio Power Siting Board, the state agency that reviews pipeline projects. She said she expects to be hearing back within the next 90 days. “The Ohio Power Siting Board technical staff is currently investigating the pipeline proposed by Columbia Gas," said Matt Butler, public information officer for the Ohio Power Siting Board. "The staff’s report of investigation, to be published by March 10, will include findings and recommendations for the Board to consider."“Our proposed route begins on South County Line Road just north of Evans Road," Macke said. "From there it will go south to U.S. 62, then northeast to Beech Road, south on Beech Road, and then east to Miller road where it will finish going up north to Clover Valley Road near the Intel site."Columbia Gas has sent out notices to homeowners near the future construction site, making them aware of the proposed project. Macke said no private properties will be affected.
Columbia Gas to begin pipeline project - Columbia Gas is set to begin a Pipeline Replacement Project in Tiffin.Beginning the week of Jan. 23, crews will be installing approximately 13,075 feet of new plastic pipe serving 309 residences on sections of Market, Lindsay, Niles, Oil, Leitner, Sandusky, Benner, Orange, Maple, Carl and St. Clair streets.In terms of timing, preconstruction camera work is underway. During this phase, residents may notice markers and flags cropping up in yards. Those are to mark the locations of underground facilities. Residents are asked to keep those markers in place until work is complete. Installation of the new mainline will begin in mid-January. Once the mainline is in and put into service, Columbia Gas will follow up with service line replacements for individual homes. These take about 2-4 hours per property and include a brief service disconnection. Indoor meters will be relocated outside as well. Crews will reach out to schedule an appointment with each property owner once we get to this phase.
Utica Shale Academy receives PNC grant — The PNC Charitable Trust has awarded the Utica Shale Academy $14,575 to purchase safety equipment for the facility.The grant award is from the Robert H. Reakirt Foundation, which is a trust administered by PNC’s Charitable Trusts Grant Review Committee. PNC’s charitable trusts support communities through grants to worthy non-profit organizations who align with donors’ charitable intents and geographic focuses. Utica Shale Academy applied for the competitive grant and funds were used to purchase steel-toed boots, welding gloves, flame-retardant jackets and welding boots.The Utica Shale Academy is located in Salineville and offers certifications in welding, industrial maintenance, heavy equipment operation/maintenance as well as courses in Youngstown State University (YSU) 3-D printing, YSU 5G and diesel mechanics. It is open to students in Columbiana, Carroll, Jefferson and Mahoning counties. It is currently in its eighth year and serves 110 students in grades 9-12 through blended learning and hands-on education to prepare them for the workforce.
Oil, Gas Production Across Shale Plays Expected to Rise in Feb. -– Oil and natural gas production across the Utica and Marcellus shale plays is expected to increase in February, according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. According to the EIA’s monthly drilling report, oil output is anticipated to increase by 3,000 barrels per day next month in the Utica and Marcellus shale, collectively known as the Appalachian basin. Most of the Utica is found in eastern Ohio, while the Marcellus stretches from western to central Pennsylvania and into West Virginia. In January, oil producers yielded an average of 136,000 barrels per day across the Utica and Marcellus, according to EIA data. It’s projected that producers will increase output to 139,000 barrels per day in February. Natural gas production in Appalachia is projected to rise by 93 million cubic feet in February, EIA said. This month, natural gas wells in Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia collectively produce an average 35.279 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. This is expected to increase to 35.372 billion next month, according to EIA. There have been no new drilling permits filed yet this year in the northern tier of the Utica, which encompasses Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties. Total oil production across all seven of the U.S. shale plays is projected to increase from 9.299 million barrels of oil per day in January to 9.375 million barrels per day next month, a boost of 76,000 barrels per day, EIA reported. Natural gas output is expected to climb by 466 million cubic feet per day across U.S. shale plays, according to EIA. In January, natural gas shale producers across the county yielded 96.190 billion cubic feet of gas per day. That number is projected to reach 96.656 billion cubic feet per day in February.
As The World Tries To Cut Back On Fossil Fuels, Oil Companies Turn To Plastic -From the car window, drivers on Pennsylvania route 18 can see smoke billow from the stacks of the Shell Polymers Monaca plant in Beaver County. It’s taken a decade to get to this point, but Shell’s new plastics plant near Pittsburgh is now open. This new facility will turn ethane, a natural gas component, from nearby fracking operations and process — or “crack” — it into 1.6 million metric tons of plastic in the form of tiny pellets every year, which will mainly be used to make new single-use plastic packaging. “This plant is the largest investment in Pennsylvania since the mid-century and one of the largest of its kind in North America,” Hilary Mercer, senior vice president of Shell Polymers, wrote in a November Facebook post. Pennsylvania’s fracking boom more than a decade ago initially attracted Shell to the area. The state sits atop the Marcellus and Utica Shale gas reserves. Shell officials and some in Pennsylvania’s government are optimistic that the plant in Beaver County could be the first of many, ushering a wave of petrochemical facilities to the region. The company’s leadership has described dreams of opening other polyethylene plants that would use the gas reserves to feed a booming Appalachian plastics manufacturing industry. The prospect represents something of a lifeline for the industry. Major oil companies like Shell and ExxonMobile are rapidly increasing their plastics output to make up for the anticipated shrinking demand for the companies’ fossil fuel products as nations lean on renewables and electrify their economies. Plastics are projected to be a key source of income for Big Oil over the coming decades — and these companies are using these projections to justify building new plants to crank out more. “What’s happening in the power plant sector? We’re slowly shifting to cleaner renewables, so less demand for fossil fuel for electricity,” said Judith Enck, a former EPA regional administrator under the Obama Administration and the founder of the group Beyond Plastics, a project based at Bennington College in Vermont. “What’s happening in transportation? People are buying electric cars, big truck fleets are electrifying, less demand for fossil fuels for transportation.” While Pennsylvania hopes to be the titan of plastic, United Nations members agreed in March to create the world’s first international plastics treaty by 2024 to curb plastic production. By 2030, plastic will emit more greenhouse gases than coal-fired power plants, according to a 2021 study by Beyond Plastics. Prior to the Shell plant opening, the Gulf Coast region was America’s hub for ethane cracker plants. But Chad Newton, deputy communications manager with the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development, said bringing one of these facilities to Beaver County is a “game changer” because it will “open the door for the entire petrochemical industry to develop.” A significant portion of the plastics manufacturing sector in the United States and Canada — 73 percent — is within 700 miles of Shell’s plant, according to a 2017 IHS Markit study, and could be invigorated by it.
Charles Mitchell: Pennsylvania can lead the nation in energy production, if the state lets it - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Pennsylvania brims with natural resources and human talent, but for the past eight years, the state’s heavy regulatory hand has often restrained opportunities for innovation. Our commonwealth has one of the largest and cleanest reliable energy sources in the nation: Pennsylvania exports more electricity than any other state and ranks second for energy exports and natural gas production. Yet, the energy sector faces prohibitive restrictions on drilling and pipeline development. Pennsylvania’s entrance into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) — unilaterally pushed by outgoing Gov. Tom Wolf — will make things worse. Electric bills in Pennsylvania are already up, on average, 73% since 2020, but with RGGI they would skyrocket an additional 24 to 36%. Pennsylvania can change course and move toward innovation and opportunity. To do so, our elected officials must look to entrepreneurs and community leaders who are already leading the way. Consider CNX Resources Corporation, a Canonsburg-based Marcellus and Utica Shale producer led by CEO Nick DeIuliis. CNX produces lower-cost, lower-emission natural gas by employing a new wave of innovative technologies. But the real value for Pennsylvanians comes from CNX’s Appalachia First vision, which outlines how the resources within Pennsylvania and Appalachia can be harnessed to deliver affordable energy — and then reinvested into local communities. As the private sector leads the way on innovation, we must continue to invest in our commonwealth’s most precious resource: our children. Pennsylvania has what it takes to become a national leader in educational opportunity. Despite hostility from the outgoing Wolf administration, the state legislature has made enormous strides in giving students access to high-quality schools of their choice. Last year, Pennsylvania achieved the second-largest expansion of school choice in the country. In the last eight years, state lawmakers have quadrupled the state’s Educational Improvement Tax Credit (EITC) scholarship program, growing it from $60 million to $263 million. Thousands of Pennsylvania’s low- to middle-income kids now have the opportunity to create brighter futures.
Thousands Demand Shapiro Reverse Dimock Fracking Decision - Jan 13, 2023 As he prepares to take office, a petition signed by over 3,000 was delivered to Governor-elect Josh Shapiro demanding that he reverse a decision by the Wolf administration that would allow fracking to resume in Dimock.The DEP decision came as a shock to environmentalists across the state, and to residents of a town that made international headlines due to water contamination linked to drilling by Cabot Oil & Gas. The company has since merged with another drilling company, and re-branded under the new name Coterra. The DEP’s quiet decision to lift the drilling moratorium came on the same day in late November that Coterra was in court to plead no contest to charges that it was responsible for the damage in Dimock – a case brought forward by Shapiro during his tenure as Attorney General. The petition echoes a demand delivered in a December letter to Governor-elect Josh Shapiro decrying the decision to once again put the people of Dimock in harm’s way. That letter – signed by Food & Water Watch, Better Path Coalition, Earthworks, Delaware Riverkeeper Network, Friends of the Earth and others – specifically calls for Governor-elect Shapiro to undo the decision when he takes office next month.“The people of Dimock have suffered long enough, and no one knows better than Governor-elect Shapiro that the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) cannot be trusted to make the practice safe. He has prosecuted several cases involving the DEP’s complete inability to regulate the fracking industry,” said Food & Water Watch Pennsylvania Director Megan McDonough. “The simple truth is that no amount of regulation can make fracking safe, and subjecting the people of Dimock to the dangers of the oil and gas industry again is an outrageous betrayal. It’s up to Shapiro to set this right.”“Josh Shapiro promised to go after the polluters as Attorney General. His job is about to change; as Governor, his job is to prevent pollution, an outcome all but guaranteed if Coterra is allowed to drill anywhere near Dimock. Governor-Elect Shapiro must reinstate the ban on day one as governor,” said Karen Feridun, Co-founder of the Better Path Coalition.
Transco’s Appalachian Natural Gas Expansion Facing Early Opposition - FERC has issued a certificate to the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco) Regional Energy Access Expansion Project (REAE), but environmental groups are planning to oppose it. The project would expand natural gas capacity from the shale fields of Northeast Pennsylvania to other delivery points in the state, along with those in New Jersey and Maryland. Transco has argued that the project would enhance access to natural gas supply in the region by easing constraints caused by limited pipeline takeaway capacity. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized the project earlier this month, but the Commission stayed the certificate for 30 days to give impacted landowners time to file for a rehearing of the decision. FERC said in its approval that several affected landowners had intervened and protested, noting that Transco had not acquired all the necessary property interests for the project. Transco on Tuesday filed a motion to lift the stay, arguing it would cause hardship for the company and its shippers. The Williams affiliate said it reached an agreement to secure property rights with Reading Blue Mountain & Northern Railroad, which it said was the only remaining holdout. The company also said a stay was unnecessary as it has no intention to begin eminent domain proceedings. The project would expand Transco’s existing interstate pipeline system to move another 829.4 MMcf/d of natural gas. In addition to equipment modifications, the project includes constructing 22.3 miles of 30-inch diameter lateral pipeline and 13.8 miles of 42-inch diameter loop pipeline in Pennsylvania. One compressor station in New Jersey would also be built. A coalition of environmental organizations led by the Sierra Club’s New Jersey chapter said shortly after FERC issued the REAE certificate that it would file a motion for rehearing. The groups argued that the project would expand fossil fuel infrastructure and increase greenhouse gas emissions. They also claimed FERC’s decision ignored a New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) and Ratepayer Advocate filing with the Commission that found the project is unnecessary for the state’s energy supply. “A BPU commissioned report shows current gas infrastructure will be able to meet demand through 2030, even during peak usage in cold winter weather,” the Sierra Club said.
New England Natural Gas Prices Soared in 2022 Amid Stiffer Global LNG Competition - New England paid some of the highest natural gas prices on record last year amid pipeline constraints and stronger competition for LNG. Daily spot natural gas prices at Algonquin Citygate near Boston peaked last year at $34.900/MMBtu in December, according to NGI data, and were higher than benchmarks in both Asia and Europe at that time. Average prices at Algonquin Citygate last year were $8.880, or nearly double the $4.470 in the prior year, according to NGI data. The region is the only one in the United States that has to import liquefied natural gas for power generation and heating, particularly during cold snaps. “New England pays some of the highest energy prices in the country,” and competes for LNG in a tight global market, said Poten & Partners’ Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence. “Basically this region lacks pipeline capacity to provide supply during cold weather, so LNG imports must fill the gap.”Global LNG and gas prices skyrocketed in 2022, hitting record highs when Europe scrambled to replace Russian gas imports after the Kremlin cut deliveries in response to western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. Feer told NGI that New England will have to compete with Europe for LNG supply, but that has not been a problem so far this winter due to relatively warm weather in Europe. The region’s LNG imports are delivered to Exelon Corp.’s Everett terminal in the Boston Harbor, to Excelerate Energy Inc.’s offshore Northeast Gateway in Massachusetts Bay and to Repsol SA’s Saint John LNG facility in New Brunswick, Canada. Between December 2021 and November 2022, Everett and Northeast Gateway imported 22.4 Bcf of LNG at a weighted average price of $27.51/MMBtu, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Over the same time between 2020 and 2021, the facilities took in 25.3 Bcf, but the weighted average price was just $9.16. National Grid plc, and other utilities in Massachusetts, procure electricity from generators and pass “that cost to customers without mark-up or profit – so customers pay what we pay,” said National Grid spokesperson John Lamontagne. National Grid procures electricity twice a year – in November and May, “and during that 20-year period, the procurement process worked well for customers, as gas prices remained relatively low.” But wholesale day-ahead electricity prices in New England jumped last year as the daily average price rose above $100/MWh 25 times in January 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).New England lacks underground gas storage and pipelines are constrained as efforts to build more infrastructure in the region have been stymied by governments and environmental opponents in recent years. But the region still relies heavily on natural gas for its energy needs, especially during the winter season, when demand can spike and exceed the volume of gas that regional pipeline infrastructure can deliver. On peak demand days, LNG contributes up to 35% of the region’s gas supply. “Natural gas is the predominant fuel source for electricity generation in New England, and as such, prices for gas will affect wholesale electricity prices,” said Matt Kakley, a spokesperson for the Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-NE). “As prices have risen for both pipeline gas and LNG, we have seen corresponding increases in electricity prices.” “Until significant new LNG supplies come online by 2025 and beyond for most new capacity, the region may have to compete for supply during periods of peak demand in the winter periods,” Feer said when asked how long-term contracts can mitigate price risk in New England. An average U.S. residential customer is forecast to pay 14.82/KWh for electricity in 1Q2023, according to the EIA. In New England, customers are expected to pay 27.82/KWh for the same period.Feer said that while there are no easy solutions for New England, the best would be to build additional pipelines to carry more supplies from the Appalachian Basin, where production is currently above 35 Bcf/d.“But New England states are famous for their opposition to new pipelines and energy infrastructure,” he added. “The region is densely populated and locals just have very little interest in new pipelines.”
New England clean energy goals slam into oil reality - New England power plants burned more oil for electricity on a single day during last month’s deep freeze than they have in four years, underscoring the gap between Northeastern states’ clean energy targets and the current resource mix in the region.Oil resources supplied 29 percent of a six-state region’s power on Dec. 24 as temperatures hovered in the teens, natural gas supplies tightened and some generators failed to perform as expected. The amount of electricity generated by oil that day was higher than it had been since a weekslong polar vortex hit New England in January 2018, according to an E&E News review of annual reports from the regional grid operator on fuel use.New England and New York are the only parts of the country that rely extensively on oil resources for backup power when other electricity supplies are expensive or in short supply. In both regions, oil is used sparingly throughout the year, having accounted for 0.2 percent of the total electric load in New England in 2021, according to ISO New England, the area’s nonprofit grid operator.But the exception is on days like Dec. 24, when frigid temperatures spurred New Englanders to crank up the heat, leaving less natural gas available for electricity. That pushes electric generators with oil stored on-site to begin burning the liquid fuel.“It’s certainly better than the alternative of having blackouts,” said Michael Goggin, a vice president at Grid Strategies LLC, a pro-clean energy electric power consulting firm. “But in the long term, there are much better solutions.”Natural gas emits about 30 percent less climate-warming carbon dioxide than oil when burned, although oil emits less carbon dioxide on a unit-by-unit basis than the most polluting fuel: coal. Typically, natural gas makes for a cheaper source of electricity than oil nationwide.New England’s dependence on oil during times of high energy demand is closely linked to its longstanding reliance on natural gas, which provided just under half of the region’s power in 2021. When natural gas supplies are constrained and energy demand is high, there is rarely any option other than oil to keep electricity flowing, based on the current resource mix.“It’s been years that this back and forth switching between fossil fuels has been going on, and it’s not improving,” Amy Boyd, vice president of climate and clean energy policy at Acadia Center, a New England-based environmental advocacy group, said in an email. “We need to instead come to a better solution.”Experts in New England mostly agree that burning oil on rare, exceptionally cold days is probably cheaper and more politically tenable than another option floated over the years: building additional natural gas pipelines to increase the supply of gas flowing to the area.Still, one question for New England is how long its old, oil-burning generators will stick around, given how infrequently they run and the high costs of maintaining them relative to how much revenue they bring in, said John Simonelli, the former director of operations support services at ISO New England.
Activists want Chicago to rule out natural gas in new buildings - Advocates want Chicago to join New York, Los Angeles and Boston in effectively banning the use of natural gas in most new construction. In Chicago, gas is often used to provide residential heat and hot water, and to power stoves and laundry dryers — all of which can now be done with electricity. The news conference was in support of a “Clean Buildings, Clean Air” ordinance that organizers said was being drafted by Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s office, with their input. The clean buildings ordinance is not yet public, according to Kolata, but he expects it to be made available soon. Lightfoot’s office did not comment on whether it was working on an ordinance but released a statement from the mayor commending the work of the clean energy groups. “This topic is critically important, and that’s why I commissioned the Chicago Building Decarbonization Working Group in 2021 to better understand how we can move to decarbonize buildings and alleviate the energy burden for Chicagoans struggling to pay their utility bills,” Lightfoot said in the statement. Kolata said the expected ordinance is not technically a ban on natural gas in new construction. Instead, advocates want Chicago to follow New York’s lead, and establish emissions standards for new buildings that are so high they basically rule out fossil fuels. In New York, that approach has been widely referred to as a ban on natural gas in new construction. Peoples Gas provided a written statement noting that the company has been serving Chicago for 170 years and called the reasoning behind the proposed clean buildings ordinance “flawed and unrealistic.” “Electric heat pumps may help keep Chicago warm in the future, but they cannot be relied upon today,” the statement said. “Not only do they struggle to work in cold climates, but it costs up to $60,000 to convert a single home to an electric heat pump. Further, Chicago’s electric system will be powered by natural gas for years to come, which shows that these activists’ thinking is flawed and unrealistic.” A Consumer Reports survey found that members paid a median price of $7,791 to purchase and install a heat pump, versus $6,870 for a gas furnace. Whole-house heat pumps for cold climates can easily cost more than $10,000, Consumer Reports noted, but that’s for both heating and cooling — heat pumps provide air conditioning. With state subsidies, heat pumps can cost less than gas furnaces, according to Consumer Reports. The federal government’s Inflation Reduction Act provides a 30% tax credit of up to $2,000 for heat pumps and ComEd offers rebates.
Scientists hit back at gas industry for twisting stove study - The furor last week over a potential ban of gas stoves sparked rants of protest and partisan posturing.But one voice was not heard amid the clamor: the researcher whose study the gas industry seized on to tout the safety of gas stoves.He says his research is being misused. Bert Brunekreef, a professor of environmental epidemiology at the Netherlands’ Utrecht University, is the co-author of a 2013 study looking at associations between the use of different cooking fuels and asthma in 47 countries. The research, which was published in The Lancet as part of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood, found that open fire cooking did increase the prevalence of asthma in young children, but “detected no evidence of an association between the use of gas as a cooking fuel and either asthma symptoms or asthma diagnosis.”The finding has been seized on by the American Gas Association and American Public Gas Association in recent weeks as a way to undercut calls for a federal ban on gas stoves, as well as more recent research that has linked gas stove use to asthma in children.But Brunekreef said, “That’s not a good use of our study.” AGA has used Brunekreef’s research to combat the findings of another analysis that was heavily cited last week when one member of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, Richard Trumka Jr., expressed interest in his agency banning gas stoves altogether due to health concerns. The other four members of the CPSC do not support that position and the agency has no plans to regulate gas stoves, but Trumka’s comments set off a frenzy of opposition from Republicans and the natural gas industry (Greenwire, Jan. 10).The industry groups take particular issue with a peer-reviewed paper, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH) last month that found 13 percent of childhood asthma cases in the United States — affecting some 650,000 kids — “is attributable to gas stove use” and could theoretically be prevented by the use of electric appliances in the home.AGA argues that the study is not trustworthy because some of the study’s authors work for the nonprofit clean energy group RMI, which advocates electrifying buildings. AGA also says that the study “ignored literature” like Brunekreef’s study from a decade earlier that the industry says shows the safety of gas stoves. Ironically, that IJERPH study linking asthma and gas stoves is actually based on other research Brunekreef co-authored in 2013.“It is entirely based on our meta-analysis,” Brunekreef said.That meta-analysis was a literature review of more than 40 research papers looking at the effects of nitrogen dioxide emissions from gas stoves and asthma. It found, “In children, gas cooking increases the risk of asthma and indoor NO2 increases the risk of current wheeze.” Specifically, it calculated that children who live in homes with gas stoves had a 42 percent increased risk of current asthma and a 24 percent increased asthma risk over their lifetime.
Tampa Bay environmentalists push back on proposed fracked gas pipeline expansion - Energy companies are pushing for the expansion of a pipeline that would increase the amount of fracked gas sent from Pinellas to Hillsborough, but environmental advocates say it infringes on local clean energy goals. Last November, Florida Gas Transmission Company (FGTC), which is based in Texas, and Tampa Electric Company quietly introduced a pipeline expansion proposal to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The proposal, called the “Tampa West Project” says the expansion includes, “the construction of approximately 1.26 miles of 8-inch lateral loop pipeline” along with piping attachments. The proposed area would run alongside the Gandy Bridge, and would attach to a current pipeline to help increase the flow of gas from Pinellas to Hillsborough. Proposal documents say the addition of the piping could allow the peak hourly flow of gas to the TECO Energy Plant at Big Bend Road to double, from 360 million thermal units of gas per hour to 667 million. The gas increase would consist of fracked gas from other states, mainly via the Gulfstream Natural Gas Pipeline, which runs across the gulf from Alabama to Florida and is fed by other pipelines. Estimates show that fracking produces about 67% of America’s natural gas. For decades, the process has proven harmful to the environment via creating large amounts of wastewater, emitting greenhouse gasses, such as methane, and releasing other toxic air pollutants. The cost of the proposed project does not yet have an estimate, which is dependent on what’s agreed to during a suggested contract agreement date of April 1, 2023, should FERC approve the project. If the project is approved, the cost would most likely be passed along to the taxpayer. The proposal indicates that part of the preliminary agreement says that the companies will seek to, “recover the cost of service associated with the Project.”
North American E&P Spend to Increase 14% in 2023; Maintain in Appalachia, Grow in Haynesville -Only a few U.S.-based exploration and production (E&P) companies have provided formal capital spending plans for 2023, but expenditures overall are forecast to decelerate from a year ago. E&P executives are surveyed twice a year by Evercore ISI to determine the level of capital expenditures (capex) and activity, which often are revised. Respondents indicated that global spending should continue to rise, up by 14% from 2022. However, it’s down from the rate of increase in 2022, when capital spending jumped 20% overall from 2021. North America, however, is still seen with a solid gain in capex for 2023. “While we forecast growth to decelerate in both North America and internationally, North America’s impressive 18% end-of-year growth follows a near record 44% in 2022,” said Evercore managing director James West. U.S. E&P executives surveyed in late December were setting their capex for 2023 using an average oil price forecast of $78/bbl West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil and $5.10/MMBtu Henry Hub (HH) natural gas.“Average oil and gas prices of $125 WTI and $7.70 HH were cited for budgets to revise higher while $62 WTI and $3.25 HH were cited for budgets to revise lower,” West said. “With energy security, surety of supply and production capacity additions key drivers for a cyclical recovery in global E&P spending, we believe there is only moderate risk to our initial estimates for 2023 growth rates in the 15-20% range for all the key operating regions.”U.S. natural gas futures averaged above $5.00 late last year, while NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. surged to nearly $20 as freezing weather hit typically mild winter climates, including in California.Although natural gas prices staggered into the new year, HH is set to recover to average near $5.00 through March, according to updated projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The projections were published in the January edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook.U.S.-based supermajors Chevron Corp. and ExxonMobil issued their capex plans in December. ExxonMobil’s 2023 capital budget of $23-25 billion has almost three-quarters directed to developments in Brazil, Guyana, the Permian Basin and for LNG projects. Through the first nine months of 2022, the supermajor had spent about $15 billion, implying full-year capex of around $20 billion-plus.Chevron, which set a $17 billion budget this year, plans to spend nearly $8 billion for U.S. upstream projects, up 25% year/year. About one-half of the capex, $4 billion, is budgeted for the Permian, up by one-third. The Evercore survey indicated that North American E&P capex “should increase by 18% in 2023, rising 6% above 2017 and within 5% of 2019 levels,” West noted.This year may approach pre-Covid levels, he said. “Building on strong growth in 2022, we project North American E&P spending to increase by 18% in 2023 to within 7% of pre-Covid levels. The U.S. should lead again with spending up 19% in 2023 while Canada moderates at 10.5%.”Independents and private operators account for more than 70% of regional capex in North America. “While privates were faster to increase capex post-Covid, the publicly traded independents shored up their balance sheets and prioritized returning cash to shareholders,” West noted. “We believe this trend could be reversing, with privates becoming more fiscally minded as service cost inflation begins to rise.”The private E&Ps account for around 20% of Evercore’s U.S. capex estimate – but 6% of the rig count. That suggests that overall U.S. spending could be larger than Evercore’s estimate.
U.S. Midstream Working to Expand Permian, Haynesville Natural Gas Pipelines - As the United States works toward casting a wider net on the global natural gas market via exports, key domestic markets like the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale could be turned upside down in 2023 as midstream bottlenecks leave gas stranded. LNG developers on the Gulf Coast are in a race to boost liquefied natural gas exports to capitalize on rising demand in Europe and Asia. Some projects are under construction and could begin operations in 2024. A handful of others could be sanctioned this year. East Daley Analytics Inc. projects U.S. liquefaction capacity could swell to nearly 30 Bcf/d by 2030. That’s up from around 13 Bcf/d in 2022. Gas companies up and down the value chain also see continued momentum for LNG. Producers have taken notice of the export growth potential. As head of one of the largest North American independents, Ovintiv Inc. CEO Brendan McCracken told investors on the 3Q2022 earnings call that “what we see unfolding is a call on North American gas supply and global LNG demand, whether it’s in Europe or Asia or other parts of the developing world…That’s durable pricing that we see unfolding over decades…” U.S. regulators share a similarly optimistic view. The Energy Information Administration sees export demand growth driving an increase in natural gas production this year. The agency expects output to average 100.4 Bcf/d in 2023. At the heart of the increased supply is rising output in the prolific Permian Basin of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and the Haynesville Shale in East Texas and southwestern Louisiana. The problem is, pipelines in the Permian and Haynesville are nearly tapped out and could fill completely this summer. That means any additional production hitting the market this year is likely to struggle to make its way downstream. It’s a sore spot for the midstream sector, one that isn’t likely to be remedied anytime soon. For the Permian in particular, East Daley’s Rob Wilson, vice president of analytics, said he expects supply growth to fill basin takeaway sometime in the first quarter of 2023. The lack of takeaway out of the Permian has been an issue before. In 2019, swelling gas output filled pipelines, and the market awaited Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Gulf Coast Express (GCX). The 2.0 Bcf/d conduit was a boon for producers, which sometimes were forced to pay customers to take their gas before GCX began service in the fall of 2019. Gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas at one point fell to negative $9.00/MMBtu. Pipeline space grew hard to come by the following year, with prices tumbling to negative $10 as producers paid to get gas off their hands. Kinder then brought online the 2.1 Bcf/d Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP). WhiteWater Midstream LLC and its partners brought online the Whistler Pipeline in the summer of 2021. However, Whistler began operations in a far different landscape than its predecessors. After Covid-19 upended the energy industry and decimated demand, Whistler started flowing gas when there was pipeline capacity to spare in the Permian. That didn’t last long, though. Permian production was reported to be close to a record 16.5 Bcf/d in December. Though estimates vary, more growth is expected. What’s preventing analysts from providing clearer guidance? Tightening egress and uncertainty over when more pipeline capacity may hit the market.
Natural Gas Futures, Spot Prices Rally Ahead of Cold Front -- Following back-to-back weekly declines to start the new year, natural gas futures on Tuesday rebounded amid forecasts for fresh bouts of cold later this month. The February Nymex gas futures contract gained 16.7 cents day/day and settled at $3.586/MMBtu. March rose 5.7 cents to $3.253. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. on Tuesday jumped 90.5 cents to $6.115. The prompt month had shed 27.6 cents on Friday ahead of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend and after several days of unseasonably warm weather to start 2023. Production also proved strong and held around 101 Bcf/d, near record levels of about 102 Bcf/d, according to Bloomberg’s estimate Tuesday. However, colder forecast trends over the long weekend sent the outlook for the Jan. 25-31 period “solidly to the bullish side,” NatGasWeather said Tuesday. “Frosty Canadian air will pour into the western and central U.S. this weekend…for a bump in national demand,” the firm said. “Cold air will finally advance into the East next week, resulting in below-normal temperatures covering most of the U.S.,” bolstered by “several reinforcing cold shots into the northern U.S. “Lows of 20s and 30s will also advance relatively deep into Texas and South next week to aid strong national demand.” EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst, said that while production is near all-time highs, colder weather late this month and, potentially, into early February could cause wellhead freeze-offs across the Bakken, Rockies and MidContinent, resulting in lighter supply. Still, natural gas prices are more than 50% lower than where they were just a month ago. Rubin cautioned that for futures to sustain an upward trajectory, colder air will need to arrive soon and forecasts for more of it into February may be needed.
U.S. natgas futures drop 8% to 18-month low on forecasts for less demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 8% to an 18-month low on Wednesday on forecasts for less heating demand in late January than previously expected. Adding to the price drop, a growing number of analysts have said they do not expect Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas to restart until February or later even though the company has said repeatedly that the liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant was on track to exit its seven-month outage in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Whenever Freeport returns, demand for U.S. gas will jump, which should cause prices to rise. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for February delivery fell 27.5 cents, or 7.7%, to settle at $3.311 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 22, 2021. That price drop pushed the contract back into technically oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for the 12th time in 14 days. It also continues the record volatility seen last year, with the contract now up or down over 5% on six of the 11 trading days in 2023. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 121.4 bcfd this week to 128.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Traders said the biggest market uncertainty remains when the Freeport plant will return after shutting due to a fire on June 8, 2022. Gas started flowing to the Freeport plant on Jan. 14, according to data from Refinitiv, but was only being used to maintain the flare system, according to a source familiar with the plant. Although Freeport LNG says the plant is still on track to restart in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals, that restart timeline has been delayed many times from October to November to December and most recently to January. Freeport has not yet filed a request with federal regulators to restart the plant, according to a source familiar with the company's filings. Even when the company was saying the plant could restart last year, many analysts said it would likely take Freeport until the first or second quarter of 2023 to get the plant ready due to the large amount of work needed to satisfy federal regulators, including training staff in new safety procedures. Even though some vessels have turned away from Freeport in recent weeks, a few tankers, including Prism Diversity, Prism Courage and Prism Agility, were still waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from the plant. Some have been there since early November.
U.S. natural gas slips to fresh 18-mth low on expected Freeport LNG delay (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a fresh 18-month low on Thursday as another liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker turned away from Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, a further sign that the plant's restart will likely not happen in January. That price decline flew in the face of a storage report showing a bigger-than-expected draw last week and forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 82 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Jan. 13. That was more than the 71-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decrease of 156 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 203 bcf. Analysts said utilities pulled less gas from storage than usual because the weather last week was warmer than normal, keeping heating demand low. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.820 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 1.2% above the five-year average of 2.786 tcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for February delivery fell 3.6 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $3.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 22, 2021 for a second day in a row. In a sign that a growing number of market participants have given up hope that extreme cold will bring massive price spikes later this winter, the premium on March futures over April NGH23-J23, which the industry calls the widow maker, fell to a record low of one cent per mmBtu. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 121.7 bcfd this week to 130.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Traders said the biggest market uncertainty remains when the Freeport plant will return. Although Freeport says the plant is still on track to restart in the second half of January pending regulatory approvals, that restart timeline has already been delayed many times from October to November to December and most recently to January.
Natural Gas Futures Finish Bruising Week on Sour Note; Cash Prices Tumble - Natural gas futures traded in a narrow range much of Friday, ultimately culminating another sluggish week with a loss amid mild weather and elevated production levels. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $3.174/MMBtu, down 10.1 cents day/day. March lost 8.8 cents to $3.036. The prompt month futures contract finished the week down 7% from the prior week’s close. This reflected unseasonably warm weather across much of the eastern half of the country through much of January to date, along with strong production that steadily held around 100 Bcf/d. However, colder weather may soon arrive, bolstering heating demand and potentially interrupting production, NatGasWeather noted. It projected fresh arctic air arriving in the week ahead and potentially carrying into early February. Ahead of Friday trading, both the American and European weather models added heating degree days for that period, according to the firm. “National demand will increase to strong levels as cold air over the central U.S. spreads into the East,” NatGasWeather said. However, the American model “remains notably colder” than its European counterpart for the Jan. 28-Feb. 2 time frame, according to the firm. The European dataset shows less “coverage of subfreezing temperatures, especially over the South and East, as it favors a stronger ridge, effectively blocking colder upstream air.” “On a seasonal basis, there is little fundamentally to excite bulls at present. Technical indicators and oversold conditions suggest a bounce is possible, but every recent attempt to move rapidly higher has succumbed to bearish fundamental pressure,” Rubin said. “With gas production up 6 Bcf/d year-over-year and Freeport LNG offline, storage surpluses may continue to expand even during modestly supportive colder February weather.” The Freeport liquefied natural gas export plant in Texas, forced offline in June following a fire, is expected to complete repairs by the end of this month, according to the facility’s management. This would enable it to ramp up 2 Bcf/d of capacity within weeks, drawing gas from domestic supplies and compensating for the mild weather start to 2023. However, the Freeport LNG relaunch was originally planned for last year – and was delayed twice. This has left analysts dubious about its return in January. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a storage decrease of 82 Bcf for the second week of January. It compared bearishly with a five-year average draw of 156 Bcf and a year-earlier pull of 203 Bcf. The decrease for the Jan. 13 week lowered inventories to 2,820 Bcf but left stocks above the five-year average of 2,786 Bcf. Analysts at the Schork Report called it a “meager” pull. It followed a rare January injection of 11 Bcf reported for the first week of the month…
U.S. Adds Six Natural Gas Rigs as Oil Count Pulls Back - The U.S. natural gas rig count rose six units to 156 for the week ended Friday (Jan. 20), while a sharp pullback in the oil patch saw the combined domestic tally drop four units to 771, the latest figures from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) show. The increase in natural gas rigs only partially offset a 10-rig decline in U.S. oil-directed drilling for the period. Land drilling declined by one rig overall, while the Gulf of Mexico count fell three units to end at 16. Vertical rigs dropped four units week/week, while directional and horizontal rig totals were unchanged domestically. The combined 771 active U.S. rigs as of Friday compares with 604 rigs running in the year-earlier period, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus. Canada’s rig count, meanwhile, surged 14 units higher week/week to finish at 241, up from 212 in the year-ago period. Gains there included 12 oil-directed rigs and two natural gas-directed rigs. Counting by major drilling region, the Permian posted a two-rig decline for the period, dropping its total to 354, versus 292 a year ago. The Haynesville and Utica shales each added one rig, while the Ardmore Woodford, Eagle Ford Shale and Marcellus Shale each posted one rig declines for the period, according to the BKR numbers. In the state-by-state breakdown, Louisiana dropped three rigs from its total to fall to 64, versus 56 at this time last year. Alaska and New Mexico each saw one-rig declines, while one rig was added week/week in Texas.Only a few U.S.-based exploration and production (E&P) companies have provided formal capital spending plans for 2023, but expenditures overall areforecast to decelerate from a year ago. E&P executives are surveyed twice a year by Evercore ISI to determine the level of capital expenditures (capex) and activity, which often are revised. Respondents indicated that global spending should continue to rise, up by 14% from 2022. However, it’s down from the rate of increase in 2022, when capital spending jumped 20% overall from 2021.
Scientists: Tougher oil and gas rules needed in gulf to protect rare whale -Two years ago, scientists announced they had discovered a new species in the Gulf of Mexico: Rice’s whale, which they called one of the rarest whales on the planet.The endangered species — only about 50 are believed to exist — lives in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental scientists and advocacy groups are now pressing the federal government to set tougher restrictions on oil and gas companies operating in the gulf to prevent the whale from going extinct.“It’s not too often that we discover new species of whales. And to discover that was exciting, but it was also a little bit bittersweet because they are so critically endangered,” said Kristin Carden, a senior scientist for the Center for Biological Diversity oceans program.Discovered by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the whale can weigh up to 60,000 pounds — about the same as a firetruck — and is part of the baleen whale family, toothless whales that use hairy fringes called baleen to filter food from seawater. It’s the only baleen whale known to live in the gulf, and Carden said its isolation led to it evolving into its own species.Rice’s whales usually hang out near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida, but a single whale has been observed off the coast of Texas, suggesting they move throughout the gulf. Scientists at the National Marine Fisheries Service, also called NOAA Fisheries, are conducting research to understand the whales’ migration patterns.According to NOAA, the most significant threats Rice’s whales face are energy exploration and development, oil spills and chemicals used to disperse oil after a spill. The whales were hit hard by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, which killed 11 workers when a British Petroleum drilling platform exploded and sank, spilling 4 million barrels of oil into the gulf over 87 days.NOAA estimates that about 22% of the whale population was lost because of the spill, along with countless other marine mammals, sea turtles, fish, birds and other wildlife.
Environmental groups sue U.S. to stop deepwater oil-export facility- (Reuters) - Environmental groups on Thursday sued the United States to overturn its approval of a deepwater oil-export facility off the Texas Gulf Coast, saying it would boost oil-production and greenhouse gas pollution. The Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), owned by energy pipeline operator Enterprise Products Partners, (EPD.N) would be the largest offshore export terminal in the United States with the capacity to load two supertankers at a time and export 2 million barrels of crude oil per day. Environmental groups, including the Sierra Club, Center for Biological Diversity and others, said the terminal and related pipeline construction could cause oil spills and affect some species. The U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD), an agency of the Department of Transportation, failed to adequately assess the oil-spill risk and harm to species in approving the terminal, the environmental groups said. MARAD in November issued an order saying construction and operation of the offshore port was in the national interest and the project met environmental quality goals. The agency had found in its decision that construction of the offshore export terminal will reduce the number of ship-to-ship transfers of crude oil and lessen emissions from conventional crude oil loading facilities. The environmental impact analysis requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act have also been satisfied, MARAD had said. "MARAD’s review of SPOT’s environmental and community impacts entirely fails to account for the project’s significant contributions to climate change," said Sierra Club Senior Attorney Devorah Ancel. A license is yet to be issued before SPOT can begin construction of the port.
Boat fire causes oil spill in Corpus Christi Marina | kiiitv.com — A fire left a shrimp boat severely damaged, which then leaked diesel fuel into the waters at the Corpus Christi Marina Sunday, officials with the city said. Boom was immediately deployed to contain the fuel while crews worked to extract it from the water, a news release from the City of Corpus Christi said. The fire was reported just after 12:30 p.m. at the Cooper's Alley L-Head. The Coast Guard, Corpus Christi Fire Department, Port of Corpus Christi, Texas General Land Office and Texas Commission on Environmental Quality all responded to the scene. Fire crews quickly had the fire out and no injuries were reported, officials said. The owner of the boat said that around 200 gallons of diesel fuel were onboard but city officials said it is unclear how much of it spilled into the water. Some of the fuel drifted north with the strong winds but was contained and removed from the water, officials said. The boat owner hired EnviroServe, a company providing a 24-hour emergency environmental response, to deploy additional boom and provide cleanup services. As of 9 p.m., the city reports all clean-up operations are complete, including the removal of the remaining diesel fuel from the damaged boat's tank. Environmental teams will return to the site tomorrow at 8 a.m. to determine if additional cleaning is needed, officials said. The boat, which is partially submerged, will be removed from the bay in the coming days. Portions of the L-Head will be closed to pedestrian and vehicular traffic until further notice.
Heavy slate of U.S. oil refinery overhauls to crimp fuel output (Reuters) - U.S. oil refiners plan twice as many refinery overhauls this spring as usual, aiming to resume maintenance delayed by the pandemic and by the lure of record-high margins, according to data provider IIR Energy and Reuters reporting. The size of the planned outages suggests supplies of gasoline and diesel could tighten and margins rise as the European Union's Feb. 5 ban on imports of Russian petroleum products takes effect, increasing the call on U.S. fuels. At least 15 U.S. oil refineries plan maintenance ranging from two to 11 weeks through May, tallies by Reuters and refining intelligence firm IIR Energy show. By mid-February, U.S. refiners will drop some 1.4 million barrels per day of processing capacity, double the five-year average, according to IIR. "A lot of plants didn't want to shut down last year when margins were strong, but they have to get this work done," said John Auers, refining analyst with Refined Fuels Analytics. Nine U.S. refineries operated by Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, and BP will shutter some of their fuel producing units this spring, according to IIR and Reuters sources. PBF Energy's Toledo, Ohio, refinery remains largely offline from December, according to two people familiar with the matter. TotalEnergies is restarting most of the units at its Port Arthur, Texas, refinery after several shut due to frigid weather in late December. Fuel-producing margins have crept higher on the outages. The gasoline crack spread is hovering around $26 per barrel, $5 higher than a year ago. Heating oil margins are $58 per barrel, more than double the year-ago level. U.S. gasoline inventories are 226.8 million barrels, compared to 240.7 million at this time last year, while refinery capacity is 8% lower than before storm Elliott. "Refiners are going to have a hard time catching up with refinery row struggling to make a comeback," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. New capacity is coming to market soon. Exxon this month launched start up procedures at a $2 billion expansion of its Beaumont, Texas, refinery, Iraq's Karbala oil refinery is expected to start in March, and a second leg of Kuwait's 615,000 barrel per day al-Zour refinery is due to start up next quarter. "Beaumont's startup, and startup of other plants across the world in the first half of the year, should prevent significant product shortages," said Auers.
2023 State of Oil and Gas presentation promises bright year for the industry - — The 2023 State of Oil and Gas presentation was held Tuesday at the Bush Convention Center. It seems that an increase in oil production will be coming to the Permian Basin, with keynote speaker Rich Dealy predicting high growth in the oil and gas industry until 2040. However, it may also come with some slight stagnation in 2023. "I think that we can expect some increase, and then it starts to level off," said Tracee Bentley, president and CEO of the Permian Strategic Partnership. "But I think importantly what we also learned today is that we know that the mineral is there. So, in order to increase production, we need to make some infrastructure investments, so that means more pipeline and more ways to get to the market product." However, any type of growth in the oil and gas field can result in positive economic news for all of the Permian Basin. With the growth coming, it will also come with more production of rigs and labor. "Any area that is growing is going to be positive for the economics of the Permian Basin," Dealy said. "If you look at rig counts, like what I said, that is expected to grow from the 330 we have right now, to about 400 over the rest of this decade. Frack fleets are going to be up, service company and labor is going to be up, so all of these things bode well from an economic standpoint." Economic success can be moved to other areas of the Permian Basin, which is why the Permian Strategic Partnership was created. Pioneer Natural Resources, who also presented the presentation, and nineteen other oil and gas companies invest their money in work areas across the area to make it a better and safer place to live. "We can put funds in a pool that can really be directed in scale and can be leveraged in other trusts and funds and foundations out there to really make a difference in education and health care and roadways," Dealy said.
Lower 48 Natural Gas, Oil Permitting Rebounds in December, Led by Texas and Wyoming - U.S. natural gas and oil drilling permit activity ended the year surpassing expectations, climbing 13% in December or up by 389 permits from November, according to Evercore ISI. The energy analyst team led by James West compiles domestic permitting figures using state and federal data. Lower 48 permits often are issued three to six months before development begins. “After November’s 7% decline, issued permits rebounded in the last month of the year to 3,452, a 29% increase from December 2021, an 83% increase from December 2020, and a 49% increase from the same month in 2019,” the Evercore analysts said. In 2022, there were 39,833 permits issued for drilling overall in the United States. That was 50% higher than in 2021 and 106% more than in 2020, the Evercore data indicated. However, permitting fell by 26% last year from the strong year of 2019, when 53,933 permits were issued and the year before the pandemic sent activity reeling. The Permian Basin recorded a 21% jump in December permitting month/month (m/m), increasing by 205. In the Powder River Basin, there was a reported 52% increase, up by 126 permits m/m. In the Eagle Ford Shale, 102 more permits were issued in December, a gain of 29% m/m. And in the Haynesville Shale, permitting activity rose 29% or 48 more permits than in November. The permits issued offset losses in the Mississippian Lime, which saw a 38% retreat from November, down by 83 permits. The Utica Shale’s permitting activity declined by 43%, off by 19. “Smaller plays” recorded a 52% decrease, down by 125 m/m, Evercore noted. “The Permian represented 34% of the total issued permits over the month, in-line with November’s 34% share,” the analyst team said. “The Eagle Ford was the basin with the second largest count share with 13%, and the Powder River Basin and smaller basins with 11% each.” According to Evercore, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. had the largest Permian count for December with 111 permits, which was 30 more than in November or up 37%. Occidental Petroleum Corp. recorded a 395% increase in Permian permit activity, with 37 more m/m. ExxonMobil drew 14 more permits for the Permian m/m, up by 69%. EOG Resources Co. procured three more permits last month, up 11% from November. By state, Texas and Wyoming led the permit rally, with California and Kansas falling behind, Evercore analysts noted. “Texas permits increased to 1,655,” up by 290 m/m or 21%, while Wyoming rebounded from November losses, increasing by 146 to 422 (53% higher m/m), analysts said. “These were partially offset by losses reported in California (off 79, minus 22% m/m), Kansas (down 72, or 46% decline) and Pennsylvania (down 22, or 16% decrease m/m).
U.S. oil output set to rise in Feb to record, but growth slows -EIA (Reuters) - Oil output from top shale regions in the United States is due to rise by about 77,300 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 9.38 million bpd in February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Tuesday. The oil increase was the lowest in more than a year, with volumes shrinking on weaker productivity per well and on inflation cutting into oil companies’ production budgets. U.S. crude oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is set to rise by about 30,400 bpd to 5.64 million bpd in February, its highest on record, the EIA projected. In the Bakken region of North Dakota and Montana, the EIA forecast oil output next month will rise 20,000 bpd to 1.23 million bpd, the largest total since November 2020. In the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas, output will rise about 4,200 bpd to 1.21 million bpd in February, its highest total volume since April 2020. In the Permian basin of West Texas and New Mexico, oil production is forecast to fall by nearly two-thirds from the same month a year ago. Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a record 96.7 bcfd in February, the EIA forecast. In the biggest shale gas basin, Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, output will rise to 35.4 bcfd in February, the highest since hitting a record 36.2 bcfd in December 2021. Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will rise to record highs of 21.7 bcfd and 16.6 bcfd in February, respectively. The EIA said producers drilled 1,011 wells in December, the most since March 2020. Total drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells rose by 40 to 4,577 in December, the most since August 2022.
U.S. Oil Rig Count Sees Largest Single Week Drop In 16 Months -- The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 4 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.bThe total rig count fell to 771 this week—167 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2022, and 304 rigs lower than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.Oil rigs in the United States fell by 10 this week, to 613. It is the largest single week drop in the number of oil rigs since September 2021. Gas rigs rose by 6, to 156. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 2, while rigs in the Eagle Ford fell by 1.Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—broke it’s six week losing stream during the week ending January 13. The frac spread count is now 254, up 4 from the previous week. This is 11 fewer crews than a month ago and the same as a year ago.Crude oil production in the United States stayed the same at 12.2 million bpd level in the week ending January 13, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up 500,000 bpd versus a year ago.At 11:00 a.m. ET, the WTI benchmark was trading up $0.12 on the day (+0.15%) at $80.45 per barrel—a less than $1 per barrel gain since this time last week.The Brent benchmark was trading up $0.14 (+0.16%) at $86.30 per barrel on the day, and up about $1.30 per barrel compared to last Friday. WTI was trading at $81.45 minutes after the data release, up nearly 1.4% on the day.Natural Gas Prices Plunge in North Dakota Amid Midwest Oversupply - Natural gas prices have plummeted in North Dakota because of a regional supply glut and lack of pipeline capacity to the more lucrative Gulf and West Coast markets, according to the state’s top oil and gas regulator. The price of natural gas delivered to TC Energy Corp.’s Northern Border pipeline system at Watford City, ND, had fallen to $2.88/Mcf as of Tuesday (Jan. 17), the lowest since December 2021, said the Department of Mineral Resources’ (DMR) Lynn Helms, oil and gas division director. The low price is “due to oversupply in the Midwest U.S. even as LNG prices in Europe remain very high,” Helms said. -year average as of the week ended Jan. 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday, corroborating Helms’ assessment.In addition, “We haven’t had really severely bitter cold winter weather for extended periods of time,” he said. European buyers, meanwhile, are paying substantially more for natural gas, Helms noted. Gulf Coast netback prices published by NGI’s LNG Insight show that U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to Europe remained well in the money despite a softened near-term European pricing outlook and above-average gas storage levels on the continent.“We’ve got, really, a lot of incentive to try to find a way to get North Dakota natural gas out of the Midwest, to move it toward the Gulf Coast or the West Coast” in order to capture premium pricing, Helms said.Projects under development to move Bakken Shale Gas south include WBI Energy Transmission Inc.’s Grasslands South Expansion project. WBI launched an open season earlier this month for up to 94,000 Dth/d of firm transport capacity on the 16-inch diameter pipeline, which would transport Bakken gas to the Cheyenne hub in Wyoming. The open season concludes on Jan. 28, with a targeted in-service date in the second half of the year.TC, meanwhile, is looking to reverse the direction of gas flows on its existing 30-inch diameter Bison pipeline, which was originally built to transport gas from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming into Midwestern markets.The proposed project would allow the pipeline to transport Bakken gas into the Cheyenne market, said Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. Kringstad also highlighted the displacement of Canadian gas volumes by Bakken gas on the Northern Border system, which originates at the Canada-Montana border. Williston Basin gas has a roughly 75% market share on the pipeline, versus about 25% for Canadian gas, Kringstad said.
The Biden Administration Finally Admits Its Mistake in Canceling the Keystone XL Pipeline - At long last, the Biden administration is admitting what experts have always known: reckless energy policies have disastrous consequences. This time, the Department of Energy quietly released a report highlighting the positive economic benefits of developing the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada, an energy project canceled by President Biden in the hours following his inauguration. But the DOE’s report is a proverbial day late and a dollar short. The cancelation of the Keystone XL pipeline has already cost the United States thousands of jobs and billions in economic growth while families suffer under the weight of record high energy prices. It’s time for lawmakers to make American energy independence a top priority. Released without a formal announcement, the DOE’s report points out that the pipeline would have created between 16,149 and 59,000 jobs and would have had an economic benefit of between $3.4 and 9.6 billion. That’s no small impact. Yet with one stroke of his pen, Biden slashed the project and instead focused his efforts on costly “green energy” goals. As a result of his executive action, 11,000 pipeline workers were promptly laid off and told to “go to work to make solar panels” instead. But Biden’s green energy efforts are bound to backfire sooner rather than later. That’s because today, more than 70 percent of the energy produced and consumed in America comes from oil, gas and coal. That’s not likely to substantially change anytime soon. In fact, the International Energy Agency predicts that oil’s share of energy production in the United States will only fall 8 percent in the next two decades, from 31 to 23 percent. And that’s assuming a sustained commitment to green energy policies. The forecast spells bad news for the Biden White House. At his political peril, Biden ignores the lessons of Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush, who both lost elections due to spiked oil prices and accompanying recessions. Two years into sowing its Green New Deal policies, the administration is reaping a bitter harvest. Due to Biden’s folly, oil, natural gas and electricity prices have more than doubled in just a single year. Meanwhile, more than 28 percent of Americans abstained from purchasing food or medicine to pay an energy bill in 2021. And now, the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act includes wind and solar spending that will cost Americans $369 billion. If the president and his Democratic allies in Congress refuse to heed lessons from the past, they have a rare opportunity to view an even more desperate future of what will certainly come to pass by staying on the same irresponsible course.
How fossil fuel companies take climate change policies to court -Investor-state dispute settlements increasingly allow oil and gas investors to sue countries over their climate policies.For over a decade, debate has raged over the Keystone XL pipeline project, which aimed to transport Canadian tar sands to the Gulf of Mexico. After approving the project’s initial stages, the Obama administration rejected a permit allowing the pipeline to cross the national border in 2015.However, the energy company backing the project didn’t take no for an answer: TransCanada soon sued the U.S. for $15 billion dollars — the future expected profits it claimed the pipeline would have earned, in addition to the $3.1 billion it had already invested in the project. The company was able to do so because the North American Free Trade Agreement, the treaty known as NAFTA that the U.S. signed with Canada and Mexico in 1994, included a clause about something called an investor-state dispute settlement, or ISDS — a closed-door legal process that’s an often overlooked, but increasingly urgent, hurdle to addressing climate change. ISDS mechanisms are included in many other bilateral and international trade agreements, allowing a country to be sued by investors from other member countries if it takes any subsequent actions that adversely affect those investments.The threat of this liability has hung over the pipeline conflict ever since: When President Trump signed an executive order in 2017 reversing course and allowing Keystone XL to move forward, TransCanada announced that it would suspend its ISDS case against the U.S. for 30 days — exactly the deadline for the decision on their new permit application. In March of that year, the newpermit was approved, and TransCanada dropped its ISDS claim. It’s far from the only recent example: Take Italy, which banned oil drilling within 12 nautical miles of its coast only to be sued by the UK-based oil company Rockhopper, which had hoped to develop a near-shore oilfield at Ombrina Mare, off the coast of Abruzzo. This summer, an international tribunal authorized to adjudicate investor-state disputes ordered the Italian government to compensate the firm $210 million pounds.These settlements are decided in a private legal process. Unlike public judicial systems, these tribunals are typically run by three arbitrators chosen jointly by the disputing parties. These people tend to be repeatedly selected from a small group of experts in corporate law, and at times they act as lawyers for an investor in one case and arbitrators deciding the case in another, though the cases may be similar or even simultaneous — a practice known as “double hatting.”Because ISDS systems are written into thousands of different treaties, each with different wording, there’s also no system of precedence. Just because arbitrators decide something in one case doesn’t mean that logic has to be applied to another. Proceedings can be kept confidential, and there is no way to appeal a tribunal’s decision.
Big Oil's good times set to roll on after record 2022 profits (Reuters) - The West's top energy firms are expected to rake in a combined record profit of $200 billion from a turbulent 2022 marked by huge volatility in oil and gas prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine with buoyant earnings likely to roll through 2023. Flush with cash, BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell and TotalEnergies also delivered shareholders unprecedented returns through dividends and share buybacks last year. These firms are expected to post a combined profit of $199 billion for 2022 when they report final quarterly results later this month and in early February. Profits are forecast to decline to $158 billion this year due to weaker energy prices and inflationary concerns, but that would still be well above the previous 2011 record, according to analysts estimates provided by Refinitiv. A strong 2022 also helped these companies cut their debt to a combined $100 billion, a 15-year low, allowing them to start 2023 more prepared for any future downturn.
Exclusive: Venezuela's PDVSA freezes most oil exports for contract reviews (Reuters) - The new head of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA has suspended most oil export contracts while his team reviews them in a move to avoid payment defaults, according to an internal document seen by Reuters and people familiar with the matter. Since U.S. trading sanctions were first imposed on PDVSA in 2019, the company has increasingly resorted to little known middlemen to allocate its oil exports, leading to big price discounts and problems with payments affecting its cashflow. The freeze order is leading to port delays, as vessels that were loading have been sent away and are waiting for new directions, the people said. PDVSA's new Chief Executive Pedro Rafael Tellechea last week wrote to the heads of the company's divisions of supply and trade, domestic market, international market, finances and foreign affairs and notified them of the contract suspensions. The letter did not specify how long the freeze would last. Tellechea, an engineer graduated from a military academy who is also running state petrochemical company Pequiven since 2019, was appointed on Jan. 6 to PDVSA by President Nicolas Maduro along with eight new vice presidents. The suspension so far has affected little known firms that act as middlemen in PDVSA's sales to Asian refiners. Cargoes chartered by U.S. oil firm Chevron Corp (CVX.N) and Cuba's Cubametales have not been affected by the contract revision, according to separate documents and the sources.
Fracking: Is a moratorium enough? -A few months ago, I proposed a ‘no to fracking’ motion to East Sussex County Council. This was just after the short-lived Truss government had lifted the moratorium. East Sussex is known as a possible shale oil/gas exploration region. While there are no current requests for licences, the Greens on ESCC wanted to make sure that there is a clear council policy that would prevent any future exploration or exploitation. The reasons are clear and mostly uncontested: fracking is a dangerous way of extracting oil or gas and can lead to the contamination of water aquifers, the creation of toxic wastewater – and in some places earthquakes. Fracking also relies on the excessive use of water at a time when droughts are likely to become more commonplace. It would likely lead to an increase in heavy industrial traffic at a time when our roads are in a serious state of deterioration. Most importantly, fracking and any oil or gas extraction will lead to more fossil fuel use and therefore more carbon emissions at a time when we must reduce our emissions urgently. As the moratorium was reinstated when the chaotic Conservative party changed their leader again, we were asked by the council to withdraw our ‘no to fracking’ motion. I decided to press on with it because government decision-making, especially to protect the environment and mitigate global heating, has been notoriously unstable over the last 12 months. As expected, the motion was sent to the Lead Member for Transport and Environment to consider before it was put to the Full Council. She issued an amendment which became the substantive motion. It was a weakened motion, just agreeing with the Government’s position on reinstating the moratorium. And, of course, the dulled-down motion was duly passed, with every Conservative councillor voting in favour and my original (and stronger) motion fell. While this was disappointing, it was not unexpected. What was surprising was the content of the background paper ESCC officers had prepared for the Lead Member. The paper explained that ESCC is the Minerals Planning Authority dealing with oil and gas matters – and would therefore be the presiding body considering any planning application for exploration or exploitation of fossil fuels, should the moratorium be lifted again. The paper made the case that the Council cannot declare a clear policy against fracking as this would mean councillors would have a pre-determined view for any planning application. This is clearly nonsense. If this were the case, then ESCC would not be able to have any policies to protect nature and the people of East Sussex in the face of planning applications, which is clearly not true.
Austria Gains No Benefits From Gas Fracking, Energy Minister Says - (Sputnik) - Austria does not benefit much from gas produced by fracking either from the economic or from the environmental points of view, Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler said on Wednesday. "It is not since yesterday that we have been discussing the fracking. It is pointless from environmental, climate policy and economic perspectives. If everyone — the communities in Lower Austria and both ruling parties — are against it … then it would be logical for me if the cabinet made the decision [to ban fracking]," Gewessler said prior to a cabinet meeting. The minister added that the relevant proposal had already been sent to the government and was being discussed informally.Austria is evaluating prospects for finding a replacement to the gas no longer supplied by Russia. On January 11, the Austrian authorities said they were examining the possibility of replacing Russian gas with domestically-produced biogas. They warned, however, that volumes produced would be limited and the biogas could only be used in periods of high demand.
Germany sees LNG import capacity of 37 Bcm/year in 2024: ministry --Germany expects the country’s LNG import capacity to reach 37 Bcm/year in 2024 and to double again by 2028, the German economy ministry said in response to a parliamentary question published Jan. 13. Responding to a series of questions from the German political party, die Linke (Left Party), the ministry also said it expected gas supply in 2023 to continue at the same level as last year. A total of 10 projects for direct LNG imports to Germany are under development, the ministry said, as Berlin looks to offset the impact of lost Russian pipeline gas imports. The projects include the five FSRU projects initiated by the federal government as well as the onshore LNG terminal in Brunsbuttel in which the state bank KfW holds a 50% stake. There is one private project at Lubmin — which will ultimately comprise two FSRUs — operated by Deutsche ReGas, as well as two private onshore terminals at Stade (Hanseatic Energy Hub) and Wilhelmshaven (TES). “To ensure gas supply in Germany in winter 2022/2023 and beyond, the government has taken a series of short-term measures, including developing LNG import infrastructure,” the ministry said. “Floating LNG import terminals will be used to close the supply gap,” it said. It said that for the winter 2022/2023, the three new LNG import terminals in Wilhelmshaven, Brunsbuttel and Lubmin would have a combined capacity of 13.5 Bcm/year. The terminals at Wilhelmshaven and Lubmin have already started operations, with the Brunsbuttel FSRU expected online soon with an initial capacity of 3.5 Bcm/year, rising to 7.5 Bcm/year in 2024-2026. Once the additional three FSRUs are operational by the end of 2023, capacity in 2024 will reach 37 Bcm/year, and with the startup of three permanent onshore terminals from 2027 capacity will be doubled again.
Natural Gas Futures in Europe Plunge 15% Today, Down 84% from Crazy Spike - The price of Dutch front-month TTF Natural Gas Futures – a benchmark for northwest Europe – plunged 15% today to €54.85 per megawatt-hour (MWh), and has now collapsed by 84% from the crazy spike in the summer of 2022. The price is now back where it had first been in early September 2021 (data via Investing.com): What spooked the European natural gas market today into the 15% sell-off were reports that Chinese importers of LNG were trying to divert February and March LNG shipments from China to Europe, as they were sitting on large stockpiles of LNG amid dropping prices in China.There had been fears that the reopening of China’s economy would put further strain on the global LNG markets. Or was that just hype all over again?In 2022 and into 2023, several factors came together to avert what had been seen as a potentially dreadful energy crisis:
- Surging supply of LNG from the US and other locations around the world.
- Rapid deployment of floating storage and regasification units (FSRU) in Europe to offload this LNG supply, including in Germany.
- Pipeline natural gas from Norway to the rest of Europe grew by 4% year-over-year in 2022 113 billion cubic meters (Bcm), according to S&P Global. Norway is now Europe’s largest supplier. Norwegian gas deliveries to Germany reached historic highs.
- A large-scale effort by households and businesses particularly in Germany to reduce natural gas consumption (heating, hot water), motivated also by the big price increases of natural gas.
- A shift in power production from natural gas to other energy sources, including coal, also motivated by big price increases of natural gas through the summer of 2022.
- A warm winter.
All of this worked together to reduce demand for natural gas and increase supply to replace pipeline natural gas from Russia.Natural gas storage facilities in Europe are in exceptionally good shape for this time of the year. In the European Union overall, storage facilities were 81.7% full on January 14, according to GIE (Gas Infrastructure Europe). This is how the 916 terawatt-hours (TWh) of natural gas in storage on January 14, compares to the levels at the same time of the year in prior years: 76% above 2022.
Column: Europe's gas price plunge churns up global coal markets: Maguire - (Reuters) - Thermal coal markets were a prominent beneficiary of Europe's power sector turmoil in 2022, with prices surging more than 250% through mid-March as utilities and trading firms scrambled to replace lost supplies of Russian natural gas with other fuels. Benchmark European thermal coal prices remained close to historic highs throughout 2022 on sustained higher use across the continent, averaging roughly $285 per tonne for the year, compared with about $115 a tonne in 2021. Higher coal use also yielded more pollution, with cumulative discharge of carbon dioxide (CO2) by Europe's coal power sector topping 600 million tonnes through November, the highest tally for the period since 2019, data from Ember shows. However, thanks to a recent plunge in European natural gas prices - down 60% since December 1 on mild winter temperatures, filled storage tanks and diminished industrial use - European coal prices and demand have slumped so far in 2023. That clashes with the more bullish posture of coal markets in top coal consuming region Asia, which has been bracing for sharply higher coal use and purchases in 2023 as dominant coal consumer China reboots its economy following a COVID-hit 2022. The divergent tones of Europe's and Asia's coal markets are captured by the record-wide price spread between them. From 2010 through 2020, Europe's API2 (All Publications Index) coal price and Asia's Newcastle coal price traded within $50 a tonne of one another, with Newcastle prices averaging a $5.70 premium over API during that 11-year span.
Eni makes “significant” gas discovery offshore Egypt— Eni announces a significant new gas discovery at the Nargis-1 exploration well in Nargis Offshore Area Concession, in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, offshore Egypt. The Nargis-1 well has encountered approximately 200 net ft. (61 m) of Miocene and Oligocene gas-bearing sandstones and was drilled in 1,014 ft. (309 m) of water by the Stena Forth drillship. The discovery can be developed leveraging the proximity to Eni’s existing facilities. Nargis-1 confirms the validity of Eni’s focus on Egypt Offshore, which the company will further develop thanks to the recent award of exploration blocks North Rafah, North El Fayrouz, North East El Arish, Tiba and Bellatrix-Seti East. Egypt’s Nargis Offshore Area concession is approximately 445,000 acres (1,800 km^2). Chevron Holdings C Pte. Ltd. is the operator with a 45% interest, while Eni’s wholly owned Affiliate IEOC Production BV holds a 45% and Tharwa Petroleum Company SAE holds a 10% interest. Eni has been present in Egypt since 1954, where it operates through the subsidiary IEOC. The company is currently the country's leading producer with an equity production of hydrocarbons of approximately 350,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In line with the net-zero strategy by 2050, Eni is engaged in a series of initiatives aimed at decarbonizing the Egyptian energy sector, including the development of CCS plants, renewable energy plants, agro feedstock for bio refining and others.
Russian gas will eventually return to Europe as people 'forgive and forget': Qatari energy minister -The European Union's rejection of Russian energy commodities following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine won't last forever, Qatar's Energy Minister said during an energy conference over the weekend. "The Europeans today are saying there's no way we're going back" to buying Russian gas, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, energy minister and head of state gas company QatarEnergy, said at the Atlantic Council Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi. "We're all blessed to have to be able to forget and to forgive. And I think things get mended with time… they learn from that situation and probably have a much bigger diversity [of energy intake]." Europe has long been Russia's largest customer of most energy commodities, especially natural gas. EU countries have dramatically cut down their imports of Russian energy supplies, imposing sanctions in response to Moscow's brutal, full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Gas exports from Russian state energy giant Gazprom to Switzerland and the EU fell by 55% in 2022, the company said earlier this month. The cut in imports has dramatically increased energy costs for Europe, sending leaders and oil and gas executives scrambling to develop new sources of energy and shore up alternative supplies. "But Russian gas is going back, in my view, to Europe," al-Kaabi said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has so far taken tens, if not hundreds of thousands of lives, destroyed entire cities, and exiled more than 8 million people as refugees. Russian missiles and drone strikes regularly hit and decimate residential buildings, schools, hospitals, and vital energy infrastructure, leaving millions of Ukrainians without power. Europe has managed to avert a major crisis this winter, owing to mild weather and substantial stocks of gas amassed over the last year. Energy officials and analysts warn of a more precarious situation in late 2023, when these supplies run out. "Luckily they [Europe] haven't had a very high demand for gas due to the warmer weather," al-Kaabi said. "The issue is what's going to happen when they want to replenish their storages this coming year, and there isn't much gas coming into the market until '25, '26, '27 ... So I think it's going to be a volatile situation for some time."
UAE's Dana Gas says explosive device was detonated in Iraqi Khor Mor gas field - UAE-based Dana Gas said on Monday that an explosive device was dropped and detonated within its Khor Mor Block in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq last week. In a bourse filing on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), the energy firm said the detonations on Friday morning caused no injuries to people or damage to facilities. Production operations continue at the Khor Mor Gas plant as normal without interruption, it added. In June last year a series of rocket attacks targeted the energy firm's facilities in Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq. No group had claimed responsibility for the attacks. Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum are joint operators for the Khor Mor and Chemchemal gas fields on behalf of the Pearl Petroleum consortium.
Exclusive: Russia sees sanctions impact on oil products, eyes crude export boost -senior source (Reuters) - Russia expects Western sanctions to have a significant impact on its oil products exports and therefore its production, but that will likely leave more crude oil to sell, a senior Russian source with detailed knowledge of the outlook told Reuters. In what the West casts as unprecedented sanctions and President Vladimir Putin deems a declaration of economic war, the United States and its allies are trying to constrict the economy of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.In an attempt to punish Russia for the conflict in Ukraine, the European Union banned seaborne Russian crude imports from Dec. 5 and will ban Russian oil products from Feb. 5. "The oil products' embargo will have a greater impact than the restrictions on crude oil," said the senior Russian source who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity the situation. The source said the sanctions will lead to more crude oil supplies from Russia, which lacks storage capacity for oil products. "We think that the refined product embargo may be more significant than the crude embargo, given that exporting a given amount of products is much more logistically complex than an equivalent amount of crude," said Ron Smith of Moscow-based brokerage BCS.
China’s Oil Demand Is Set To Hit A Record High In 2023 --China’s oil consumption is expected to jump by 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year to a record 16 million bpd, after Beijing abandoned the strict ‘zero Covid’ policy and re-opened its borders, a median estimate of 11 China-focused consultants polled by Bloomberg News showed.Following the initial exit Covid wave after the strictest curbs were lifted, Chinese oil demand is set to rebound from the second quarter onwards, also raising global oil demand for this year, many analysts say. Despite the fact that China’s crude oil imports in 2022 were slightly lower than the previous year, for a second consecutive year, crude imports in December rose by 4% annually for the third highest monthly purchases in 2022, data showed on Friday. Despite the current Covid wave, China is preparing for the re-opening with the issuance of a huge batch of oil import quotas for its private refiners.“Higher quotas support the view of recovering Chinese demand this year and the quicker-than-expected change in Covid policy means that the demand recovery could be more robust than initially expected,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said this week.Global oil demand in 2023 is expected to grow by around 1.7 million bpd, of which 50% will be driven by China, according to ING, which says “There could be some upside risk to this” forecast.“As China’s infection rate slows post-Chinese New Year, we see domestic oil demand rebounding. As the population hits the roads and the skies, our expectation is Chinese oil consumption in 2023 will increase by around 1.0 million b/d, an impressive performance considering Q1 demand is likely to contract by 190,000 b/d,” Gavin Thompson, Vice Chairman, Energy – Asia Pacific, at Wood Mackenzie, said on Thursday.
OPEC says Chinese oil demand to rebound in 2023 after drop (Reuters) - OPEC said on Tuesday Chinese oil demand would rebound this year due to relaxation of the country's COVID-19 curbs and drive global growth, and sounded an optimistic note on the prospects for the world economy in 2023. World demand in 2023 will rise by 2.22 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.2%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report, unchanged from last month's forecast, which had ended a series of downgrades. A stronger economy, if it materialises, could lead to upward demand revisions and support oil prices, which have rallied in 2023 on Chinese demand hopes. OPEC sounded an upbeat tone on the world economy's prospects, even though it still expects a relative slowdown from 2022. "The global momentum in the fourth quarter of 2022 appears stronger than previously expected, potentially providing a sound base for the year 2023," OPEC said in the report. "Chinese oil demand is on course to rebound due to the recent relaxation of the country's zero-COVID-19 measures," it said in a separate section, adding that plans to expand fiscal spending were also likely to support demand. OPEC expects Chinese demand to grow by 510,000 bpd in 2023. Last year, the country's oil use posted its first contraction for years due to the COVID containment measures. In the report, OPEC raised its 2022 world economic growth estimate to 3%, saying growth last year in the United States and the euro zone had surpassed previous forecasts, and left 2023's forecast steady at 2.5%.
IEA Sees Global Oil Demand Hitting A Record High In 2023 - China’s reopening is set to drive global oil demand to a record high of 101.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up by 1.9 million bpd from 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, raising its demand growth estimate for 2023 by 200,000 bpd from 1.7 million bpd growth expected in December. Almost half of the oil demand growth this year will come from China after Beijing lifted its Covid restrictions, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) for January. At the same time, world oil supply growth in 2023 is set to slow to 1 million bpd, following last year’s OPEC+ led growth of 4.7 million bpd. “An overall non-OPEC+ rise of 1.9 mb/d will be tempered by an OPEC+ drop of 870 kb/d due to expected declines in Russia,” the IEA said in the report. As a result, market balances are set to tighten as this year progresses, the agency noted. “This year could see oil demand rise by 1.9 mb/d to reach 101.7 mb/d, the highest ever, tightening the balances as Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions. China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain,” the IEA said. Russia and China will be the two wild cards in the market this year, it added. Russian oil exports dropped by just 200,000 bpd in December despite the EU embargo and the G7 price cap. But the record price discounts on Russian benchmark export grades reduced Russia’s oil revenues by $3 billion to $12.6 billion last month – the lowest since February 2021, the agency has estimated. The EU ban on Russian oil products from February 5 could soon mean that “the well-supplied oil balance at the start of 2023 could quickly tighten however as western sanctions impact Russian exports.”
TotalEnergies launches Lapa South-West Project -TotalEnergies has approved the final investment decision of the Lapa South-West oil development located in the Santos Basin, 300 km off the coast of Brazil. TotalEnergies operates the project with a 45% interest, in partnership with Shell (30%) and Repsol Sinopec (25%). Lapa South-West will be developed through three wells, connected to the existing Lapa FPSO located 12 km away and currently producing the North-East part of Lapa field since 2016. At production start-up, expected in 2025, Lapa South-West will increase production from the Lapa field by 25 000 barrels of oil per day, bringing the overall production to 60 000 barrels of oil per day. This development represents an investment of approximately US$1 billion.
Libyan Court Suspends Controversial Oil And Gas Deal With Turkey - A Libyan court has suspended a deal for offshore oil and gas exploration that Libya and Turkey inked last year, a deal that sparked outrage from neighbors Egypt and Greece.The deal concerned waters that Libya and Turkey have declared to be theirs but that are disputed by Egypt and Greece, Reuters noted in a report on the news that cited an unnamed source. The Libyan government can appeal the ruling, the source also told Reuters.Greece’s Permanent Representative at the UN, Maria Theofili described the deal as one “violating the sovereign rights of Greece, is a violation of international law and a deliberate escalation that undermines stability in the region.”The deal, signed in October last year, followed an earlier, security agreement, inked in 2019, that demarcated the maritime border between Libya and Turkey—the same demarcation that angered Egypt and Greece."We've signed a memorandum of understanding on exploration for hydrocarbons in Libya's territorial waters and on Libyan soil, by mixed Turkish-Libyan companies," the foreign minister of Turkey, Mevlut Cavusoglu said at the time, asquoted by the AFP.The official noted, then, that the deal is only between Libya and Turkey, "two sovereign countries -- it's win-win for both, and other countries have no right to interfere".The eastern Mediterranean was put in the spotlight by a series of large gas discoveries off the coast of Israel in the past decade or so, as well as discoveries in Turkish and Cypriot waters. The potential of the region has become particularly relevant now when Europe is looking for new sources of gas.At the same time, the events around the deal with Turkey had contributed to the deterioration of the internal political situation in Libya, as Ankara signed its deals with the Government of National Unity—the entity recognized by the UN but not by rival political factions in Libya itself.
UAE energy minister: OPEC+ faces oil market volatility in both supply and demand (Reuters) - OPEC+ is facing "volatile prospects" in oil markets both in supply and demand, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told Asharq TV on Saturday. He said this was due to European sanctions on Russian crude taking effect in addition to China lifting its "zero-COVID" policy. OPEC+ production capacity was down 3.7 mln bpd due to fewer investments in the oil sector, Al-Mazrouei said. He also said UAE is taking preemptive steps to compensate for the reduced oil production capacity in some countries by bringing forward its five million barrel per day oil production capacity expansion to 2027 from a previous target of 2030. Regarding gas, Al-Mazrouei told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Summit earlier that the world would need natural gas for a long time and more investment was required to ensure supply security and affordable prices during the global energy transition.
Saudi Arabia stays top crude supplier to China in 2022, Russian barrels surge (Reuters) - Russia remained China's second-largest source of crude oil in 2022, following repeat top supplier Saudi Arabia, as Chinese refiners snapped up low-cost Russian barrels while Western countries shunned them after the Ukraine crisis. China's crude oil imports from Russia jumped 8% in 2022 from a year earlier to 86.25 million tonnes, equivalent to 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Friday. Russian crude has been trading in widening discounts to global oil benchmarks following Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, which the Kremlin has called a "special operation". China, which refused to condemn the attack, cranked up procurement of Russian barrels and has largely ignored the sanctions imposed by Western nations on seaborne Russian crude from Dec. 5. In December, it brought in 6.47 million tonnes of crude oil from Russia, or 1.52 million bpd, compared to 1.7 million bpd in the same period in 2021. China's state-backed refiners have wound down the purchase of Russian oil since November, but the independent refineries have continued buying from intermediary traders who arrange shipping and insurance, shielding them from the risk of secondary sanctions. Saudi Arabia shipped a total of 87.49 million tonnes of crude to China in 2022, equivalent to 1.75 million bpd, customs data showed, on par with the level in 2021. China's state-backed oil refiners largely fulfilled their term contracts with Saudi in 2022 despite the sluggish domestic demand. Saudi Arabia is expected to remain a key, if not the dominant, crude exporter to China after President Xi Jinping's visit to Riyadh in December, where he told Gulf leaders that China would work to buy oil in Chinese yuan, rather than U.S. dollars. Customs data also showed that crude imports from Malaysia almost doubled in 2022 to 35.68 million tonnes. The Southeast Asian country is a transfer point for sanctioned shipments originating from Iran and Venezuela. No Venezuelan crude imports were recorded by Chinese customs throughout 2022 and a total of 780,392 tonnes of crude oil from Iran arrived in China. China is Iran's biggest oil buyer, but most Iranian exports are rebranded as crude from other countries to evade U.S. sanctions. Vortexa, a ship tracking specialist, assessed that China's December imports of Iranian oil rose to a record of 1.2 million bpd, up 130% from a year earlier. Crude shipments from the United States reached 7.89 million tonnes in 2022, down 31% year-on-year.
Jeb Bush: How to stop Panama from helping Iran avoid oil sanctions - The Washington Post - The Iranian regime has survived for more than four decades, thanks in large part to countries’ putting economic self-interest ahead of international peace and security. In strengthening Iran by helping it circumvent sanctions, these countries work against the brave Iranian women and men who are now risking their lives for a future free of the regime’s rule. Russia and China are well known as Iran’s allies and trading partners, but there is another country that has been instrumental in the regime’s continued survival: Panama. Without Panama’s support, the Iranian regime would face significant hurdles in smuggling its oil and gas around the world. At least 16 percent of the world’s shipping fleet, by deadweight tonnage, is registered in Panama, including 39 percent of the 288 vessels that United Against Nuclear Iran, an organization I advise, has identified as suspected of participating in Iran’s foreign-flagged ghost armada. The Treasury Department should block this oil tanker fleet in its entirety from engaging with Americans and U.S. businesses for violating U.S. sanctions. The ships are at the core of a smuggling network that helped the regime export $30 billion worth of oil in 2021, according to UANI’s analysis of the monthly volume of Iran’s oil exports and the discounted price at which Iran sells its oil. That revenue helps Iran fund terrorist organizations and pay security forces responsible for gross human rights abuses against Iranian protesters. Given that Panama enjoys the fruits of billions of dollars in annual trade with the United States and receives more direct U.S. investment than any other Central American country, the Panamanian government appears remarkably unconcerned about ensuring that it is not helping a U.S. adversary evade U.S. sanctions.
Oil Prices Head Lower As Traders Take Profits - . Crude oil began the week with a decline as traders took profits from last week’s rally and settled down to wait for market forecasts due this week by OPEC and the International Energy Agency.At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at a little over $84.50 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate had slipped below $80 and was changing hands for about $79.30 per barrel.Last week, crude oil booked its sharpest weekly price rise since last October, largely on expectations of a demand rebound in China after the country reversed its zero-Covid policy that had hobbled industrial activity and, consequently, oil demand for three years.Brent crude settled at over $85 per barrel last Friday and WTI ended the week at close to $80 per barrel, both benchmarks adding more than 8 percent during the week.OPEC is due to release its latest Monthly Oil Market Report tomorrow and traders are waiting to see if the cartel has revised its oil demand expectations for the year from last month’s report. In December, OPEC forecast that oil demand this year would grow by 2.2 million bpd, down from 2.5 million bpd last year. Demand growth from the OECD countries was forecast at a modest 300,000 bpd while non-OECD growth was seen at 1.9 million bpd. Non-OPEC supply, according to OPEC, was to grow by 1.9 million bpd as well this year, according to the December MOMR. "Now with China opening, hopefully we will see a pickup in demand and when we meet, we will analyze that as usual. We always take the decision that serves the balancing of the market,” UAE’s oil minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, said on the sidelines of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum, which took place in Abu Dhabi this weekend.
Crude oil prices slip on global recession gloom; Brent hits $84.08/bbl – Oil prices fell in early trade on Tuesday as recession fears dominated headlines out of the World Economic Forum's meeting in Davos, draining optimism that stoked the market last week on prospects of a fuel demand recovery in top oil importer China. Brent crude LCOc1 futures were down 38 cents, or 0.5%, at $84.08 at 0114 GMT, extending a 1% loss in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures slid $1.16, or 1.5%, to $78.70 from Friday's close. There was no settlement on Monday due to a US holiday for Martin Luther King Day. In a bearish survey released at the Davos summit, two-thirds of private and public sector economists polled expected a global recession this year, with about 18% considering it "extremely likely". At the same time, a survey of chief executives' views by PwC was the gloomiest since the firm launched the poll a decade ago. "Brent crude has gained nearly 10% over the past 10 days as optimism over China's reopening boosted sentiment. However, the outlook for the rest of the global economy is uncertain," ANZ commodity analysts said in a client note. ANZ also pointed to a jump in crude supply from Russia weighing on the market, with seaborne exports having risen to 3.8 million barrels per day last week, the highest level since April. Reuters reported on Friday that at least four Chinese-owned supertankers were shipping Russian Urals crude to China and a fifth supertanker was shipping crude to India, with the oil available at a discount following the imposition of an oil price cap by the Group of Seven (G7) nations. A rise in the dollar off seven-month lows also dragged on oil prices, as a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive for those holding other currencies.
WTI Gains Fade as NY Manufacturing Falls to Post-COVID Low -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures ended mixed Tuesday, with the nearby-month West Texas Intermediate contract sharply paring an advance to a nine-week high $81.23 per barrel (bbl) after a survey on manufacturing activity in New York State showed business activity collapsed to the lowest level since June 2020, underscoring the depth of demand destruction as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates into restrictive territory. A key measure for manufacturing activity in the Empire State plummeted 22 points early January to a negative 32.9 reading, showed the survey released Tuesday morning by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The figure represents the fifth-worst reading in the survey's history and was twice as weak as even the most pessimistic estimates. "New orders and shipments declined substantially. Employment growth stalled, and the average workweek shortened. Looking ahead, firms expect little improvement in business conditions over the next six months," according to comments by the Fed bank. Taking a broader look, business activity across the U.S. manufacturing sector fell in December for the second straight month, with five out of six biggest manufacturing industries registering a contraction. By all accounts, domestic manufacturing is already in recession even as the broader economy still hangs on a resilient consumer. The data doesn't bode well for distillate fuel consumption. Distillate product supplied to the U.S. market -- a measure of demand -- averaged 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past four weeks, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Traders expect little improvement in the coming weeks. Globally, the picture doesn't look as bleak. China is well into the reopening phase of its economy following the abrupt end of Beijing's zero-COVID policies despite surging cases and deaths. Addressing the wave of COVID infections that has strained hospitals in China, Vice Premier Liu He at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said the peak of infections had passed, and consumption-related industries have returned to normal. High-frequency data for early January suggests mobility in China is indeed recovering from a December low, with the number of domestic flights, subway and train usage is trending higher. Goldman Sachs said in a weekend research note that China is sharply increasing crude imports while reducing refined fuel exports, which it says implies "China is preparing for a significant up-lift in demand, meaning the impact on global oil prices will likely be felt much earlier than realized improvements in end-demand." At settlement, WTI for February delivery added $0.32 to $80.18 per bbl, and Brent March futures on ICE advanced $1.46 to $85.92 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB February contract gained $0.0123 to $2.5451 per gallon, and front-month ULSD futures declined $0.0049 to $3.2510 per gallon.
Oil prices extend gains on optimism over China's recovery - (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending the previous session's gains, driven by optimism that the lifting of China's strict COVID-19 curbs will lead to a recovery in fuel demand in the world's top oil importer. Brent crude futures firmed 63 cents, or 0.73%, to $86.55 a barrel by 0401 GMT, following a 1.7% rally in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 68 cents, or 0.85%, to $80.56, having risen 0.4% on Tuesday. China's economic growth slowed sharply to 3% in 2022, missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and marking its second-worst performance since 1976. But the data still beatanalysts' forecasts after China started rolling back its zero-COVID policy in early December. Analysts polled by Reuters see 2023 growth rebounding to 4.9%. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report that Chinese oil demand would grow 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year after contracting for the first time in years in 2022 due to COVID containment measures. "Growing hopes that China's fuel demand will pick up after a recent shift in its COVID-19 policy lent support to oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd. "OPEC's optimistic outlook on China's demand also supported the market sentiment," he said, predicting a bullish tone for this week.
WTI Falls on Weak US Macros Ahead of Weekly Inventory Data- - After eight consecutive sessions of gains, oil futures settled Wednesday's session lower after weaker-than-expected economic data in the U.S. fueled recession fears, souring sentiment in broader markets. U.S. retail sales declined in December at the sharpest pace of 2022, marking a dismal end to the holiday shopping season as rising interest rates joined with still-high inflation dragged on consumer spending. Sales at stores and restaurants unseasonably declined by 1.1% from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Sales were also revised lower in November and have now fallen in three of the past four months. The decline in retail sales clearly shows the U.S. economy slowed late last year as American consumers pulled back on spending. Further signs of slowdown could be found in industrial production data for December that showed output declined more than expected, indicating manufacturing activity is rapidly losing momentum as inflation pressure and higher interest rates cut demand for goods. Manufacturing output dropped 1.3% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. Data for November was also revised lower to show production at factories decreased 1.1% instead of the previously reported 0.6%. Earlier in the session, the oil complex got a leg up from upbeat demand projections by the International Energy Agency that forecasts global oil demand this year would reach a record high 101.7 million bpd helped by the reopening of China's economy. Paris-based energy watchdog lifted its 2023 estimates for worldwide oil consumption by 200,000 bpd to 1.9 million bpd. In the final months of 2022, weak industrial activity in OECD countries coupled with zero-COVID policies in China sliced off nearly 1 million bpd in global demand growth. Also on Wednesday, oil traders positioned ahead of the release of U.S. inventory data delayed one day due to the observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday (1/16). Analysts expect U.S. commercial crude oil inventories to decrease by 1.1 million bbl, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 4 million bbl to an increase of 4.5 million bbl. At settlement, WTI for February delivery declined $0.70 to $79.48 bbl after climbing above $82 bbl in intrasession high, and Brent March futures on ICE fell $0.94 to $84.98 bbl. NYMEX RBOB February contract dropped $0.0216 to $2.5235 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures added $0.0120 for a $3.2630 gallon settlement.
Oil prices settle lower after touching their highest intraday prices since early December – Oil futures settled lower on Wednesday, with U.S. prices posting their first loss in nine sessions. Prices for the commodity had climbed to their highest intraday levels since early December on expectations for stronger energy demand following the reopening of China’s economy, with the International Energy Agency boosting its forecast for crude demand growth in 2023. Oil prices turned lower, however, after comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official renewed uncertainty over the pace of upcoming interest-rate hikes — raising uncertainty over the outlook for the U.S. economy. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery fell 70 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $79.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $82.38. Price settled lower for the first time in nine sessions. March Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 94 cents, or 1.1%, at $84.98 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after touching a high of $87.85. Both WTI and Brent had touched their highest intraday levels since Dec. 5, according to FactSet. Back on Nymex, February gasoline shed nearly 0.9% to $2.5235 a gallon, while February heating oil gained 0.4% to $3.263 a gallon. February natural gas lost 7.7% to $3.311 per million British thermal units after posting a gain of 4.9% on Tuesday. The settlement was the lowest for a front-month contract since June 22, 2021. Oil prices had spent much of the session trading higher, buoyed by expectations for higher energy demand from China. However, oil turned lower following comments Wednesday by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard . Bullard suggested that despite cooling U.S. inflation data and soft retail sales, the Federal Reserve still needs to move quickly to get to benchmark interest rates above 5%. That “raised fears that the Fed may raise rates at the 50 basis point clip again,” providing some support for the U.S. dollar and pressuring prices for dollar-denominated commodities such as oil. Traders have also been concerned that aggressive U.S. interest rate rises could lead to a recession and lower energy demand. Early Wednesday, the Paris-based IEA lifted its forecast for oil-demand growth this year by nearly 200,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million barrels a day. The extra demand means that the IEA now expects total oil demand this year to average 101.7 million barrels a day, well above pre-pandemic levels and a record amount. The IEA raised its forecast for Chinese demand by 100,000 barrels a day to 15.9 million barrels a day. Output data from China showed that oil refiners processed around 14.17 million barrels a day (mb/d) of crude in December, down from 14.69 mbd in November but up 2% year over year, Full-year 2022 numbers averaged 13.57 mb/d, down almost 4% year over year. “Weaker domestic demand and low refined product export quotas would have weighed on refinery runs through 2022. Activity should recover this year, given the expected recovery in oil demand following China’s reopening, along with the government releasing larger volumes of refined product export quotas more recently,”
WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Big Crude Build -- Oil prices tumbled today. Overnight saw gains on the heels of China reopening hope (and optimistic IEA forecasts for 2023 demand) and then dumped it all back and then some during the US day session as macro data signaled a harder landing than so many have hoped for. “Oil’s rally could not last after energy traders saw broad weakness across large parts of the US economy,” “Crude-demand concerns are growing as the consumer is much weaker than expected and as the manufacturing sector is plunging.” After last week's utterly chaotic looking inventory data (massive builds likely due to the national 'deep freeze'), traders are waiting for outputs to normalize somewhat, and expect this week's data to remain noisy. API:
- Crude +7.6mm
- Cushing +3.7mm
- Gasoline +2.8mm
- Distillates -1.8mm
Echoing last week's official data, we suspect API is playing catch-up as it reports huge builds in crude and at Cushing and a Distillates draw WTI was hovering around $79.50 before the print and slipped lower after..
Oil prices down amid recession fears, US crude stock growth - Oil prices decreased on Thursday influenced by weak economic data from the US amid recession fears and a hefty rise in crude stockpiles. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $83.92 per barrel at 9.20 a.m. local time (0620GMT), down 1.25% from the closing price of $84.98 a barrel in the previous trading session. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $78.63 per barrel at the same time, a 1.47% fall after the previous session closed at $79.8 a barrel. Oil prices retreated from their highest level in over a month after weak US data fueled recession worries. US Producer Price Index recorded its biggest decline since April 2020 in December, with a 0.5% fall, according to data released Wednesday. Retail sales in the US fell 1.1% in December, below expectations, while industrial production fell 0.7%, the biggest drop since September 2021. Additionally, the US Fed reported that American companies expect "low growth" in the economy in the coming months. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories rose by about 7.6 million barrels during the week ended Jan. 13, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. A more-than-expected stockpile increase signals a drop in crude demand, weighing prices down. Official stock data from the US Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release later in the day, and if the estimated build-in stock levels is confirmed, prices are expected to fall further.
WTI Extends Gains Despite Huge Crude Build, Surge In Cushing Stocks - Oil prices are rebounding this morning, after yesterday's growth-scare-driven tumble as investors wagered China’s demand revival would sustain the market even amid signs of rising US crude inventories (reported by API overnight). “The reopening is proceeding sooner (by one quarter) and more rapidly than we originally expected,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note to clients. “This opens a possibility that China is poised for a strong economic recovery that will gather steam in February, after the end of the Lunar New Year holiday.” Will API prove to be right or is this 'noise' hanging over from the 'deep freeze' impact on refiners? DOE
- Crude +8.408mm (+4.8mm exp)
- Cushing +3.646mm - biggest build since April 2020
- Gasoline
- Distillates
Confirming API's report, the official data showed another huge crude build of 8.41mm barrels and a massive rise in stocks at Cushing... US Crude production was flat at its cycle highs... WTI was hovering at $80.50 ahead of the official data and bounced after the data... "Two wild cards dominate the 2023 oil market outlook: Russia and China. This year could see oil demand rise by 1.9 mb/d to reach 101.7 mb/d, the highest ever, tightening the balances as Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions. China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain," the IEA said.
Oil Adds to Gains Despite Large Crude, Gasoline Builds - Oil futures edged higher post-inventory trade Thursday despite federal data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing nationwide crude oil stock levels spiked 8.4 million barrels (bbl) during the week ended Jan. 13 as refinery operations remained below normal after widespread disruptions related to bitter cold weather in late December. U.S. refiners again increased run rates by a smaller-than-expected 1.2% last week to 85.3% of capacity after runs fell to the lowest weekly rate since Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 shuttered much of the refining capacity in the Gulf Coast. Analysts mostly expected run rates to recover by 3% from the previous week. For the week, refiners processed 202,000 barrels per day (bpd) more crude averaging 14.853 million bpd, which is still near the lowest processing rate since late March 2021. Slow recovery in refinery run rates indicates some refiners might have gone into early maintenance, with the turnaround season heaviest in February and March. Slow recovery in refinery runs led to a massive 8.4-million-bbl build in commercial crude stockpiles compared with expectations for a 1.1-million-bbl decline. At 448 million bbl, commercial crude stockpiles stand about 3% above the five-year average. Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, also increased 3.6 bbl from the previous week to 31.4 million bbl. Domestic oil producers, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 12.2 million bpd. In the gasoline complex, commercial stockpiles jumped 3.5 million bbl in the reviewed week to 230.3 million bbl compared with expectations for a 1.7 million bbl increase. Demand for gasoline recovered 496,000 bpd in the reviewed week to 8.054 million bpd. Distillate demand rose 204,000 bpd to 4.024 million bpd after consumption hit the lowest level since April 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic shuttered large chunks of the economy two weeks earlier. Domestic distillate stocks declined by 1.9 million bbl to 115.8 million bbl. Total products supplied to the U.S. market over the last four-week period averaged 19.7 million bpd, down 6.7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline supplied averaged 8.1 million bpd, down 4.6% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel supplied averaged 3.6 million bpd over the past four weeks, down 9.8% from the same period last year. Near 11:45 p.m. EST, WTI for February delivery advanced to $80.22 per bbl, up $0.52, and NYMEX RBOB February contract gained $0.0547 to $2.5782 per gallon, and front-month ULSD futures added $0.0470 to $3.3195 per gallon.
Oil prices rally to highest close since Dec. 1 on China optimism (Reuters) -Oil prices settled 1% higher on Thursday, extending a recent rally built around rising Chinese demand, while the market wrote off a second straight week of large builds in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude futures gained $1.18, or 1.4%, to settle at $86.16 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 85 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $80.33 per barrel. Those were the highest closing levels for both contracts since Dec. 1. Chinese oil demand climbed by nearly 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 15.41 million bpd in November, the highest level since February, according to the latest export figures published by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative. Energy markets could be tighter in 2023, especially if the Chinese economy rebounds and the Russian oil industry struggles under sanctions, International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol said on Thursday. Oil prices were down by more than a dollar per barrel earlier in Thursday's session, as traders booked profits and U.S. data showed the economy losing momentum. Both oil benchmarks hit their highest level in more than a month on Tuesday. Prices also came under pressure briefly after U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed U.S. crude stocks last week rose by 8.4 million barrels, their biggest gain since June 2021. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo described the EIA data as a "bearish report, with large crude and gasoline inventory increases, but an improvement from last week, with a recovery of implied oil demand and refinery runs from the impact of Storm Elliot." U.S. gasoline refining margins traded at a new five-month high for the fourth straight session on Thursday, amid optimism about rising travel demand from China's reopening and threats to refined products supply from strikes in France. "There's just so much bullish sentiment out there, so much fear, that it keeps underpinning this market."
Oil up as bulls push back against another big U.S. crude build -- Oil prices settled up about 1% Thursday, recouping losses from the previous session, as bulls in the space bet on falling U.S. refinery runs to lead to an imminent tightening in fuel supply, even as latest weekly data showed big builds in both crude oil and gasoline. February, the most-actively traded contract on New York West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude settled up 85 cents, or 1.1%, at $80.33 per barrel. February WTI earlier hit an intraday high of $81.48. Meanwhile, March WTI, which Investing.com is already using as the front-month marker for U.S. crude, settled up 81 cents, or 1%, at $80.61. London-traded Brent crude for March delivery settled up $1.18, or 1.4%, at $86.16, after a session peak at $86.84. Oil prices ran up despite the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, saying in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report that U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.408 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 13, versus market expectations for a draw of 593,000 barrels. In the previous week to Jan. 6, the statistical arm of the U.S. Energy Department reported a crude build of 18.962M barrels. In total, the EIA has reported almost 30M barrels in crude builds over the past four weeks. On the gasoline inventory front, the EIA reported a rise of 3.483M barrels versus expectations for a build of 2.529M and against the previous week's growth of 4.114M. Gasoline is America's number one automotive fuel. The only real bullish number in the weekly dataset was that of distillate stockpiles. The EIA cited a drop of 1.939M barrels for this, versus the forecast build of 122,000 barrels and against the previous week's slide of 1.069M barrels. Distillates are refined into heating diesel, diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships and fuel for jets, U.S. refineries operated at 85.3% of their capacity last week, the EIA said, versus the 90%-95% range typical for this time. “There’s this notion that fuel stockpiles, including that of gasoline, will fall appreciably in the coming weeks and that’s what oil bulls are holding on to as their idea of ‘demand’,” "But, of course, slower refinery runs means a continuous buildup in crude. That's being conveniently ignored here." The IEA, or International Energy Agency, said on Wednesday that global oil demand could reach an all-time high in 2023 as China rolls back lockdowns and restrictions related to its tough COVID-zero policy. In a more material development, the weekly inventory report showed that the Biden administration has stopped drawing crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, as it attempts to rebuild a reserve it pulled more than 200M barrels to keep fuel prices low for Americans. The EIA reported an SPR crude balance of 371.6M barrels at the end of the Jan. 13 week, unchanged from the previous week to Jan. 6. The zero SPR draw for last week closes the chapter on some 220M barrels taken from the emergency oil reserve since November 2021 by the Biden administration to provide more crude to the marketplace and bring pump prices of gasoline down. Prior to those draws, SPR inventories stood at just under 600M barrels. At their present level of just above 370M, the reserve’s stockpiles are at their lowest since December 1983, the EIA said. The crude releases from the SPR, along with other global market developments, added significantly to international oil supplies over the past year. At one time, the EIA reported weekly draws of as much as 8M barrels from the reserve. Those additional supplies helped slash crude prices from a high of more than $130 a barrel in early March, right after the outbreak of fighting in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russian crude, to below $90 a barrel by August. The strategy worked for the administration: pump prices of gasoline fell to below $3 a gallon at some U.S. pumps by late last year from a mid-June record high of $5 as the SPR draws flooded the domestic marketplace for crude. Gasoline at U.S. pumps now average $3.38 a gallon, the American Automobile Association said on its website Thursday. Last week’s zero SPR draw came after the administration announced late last year that it was winding down its dependence on the reserve and preparing to add to its inventory. The administration is negotiating purchases with U.S. energy firms to refill the reserve, starting with a base offer of $70 per barrel. With WTI at just above $81 a barrel on Thursday, sellers will likely be seeking more, resulting in a longer lag to replenish the reserve.
Oil heads for second week of gains on China demand outlook | (Reuters) - Oil rose on Friday and was heading for a second straight weekly gain, spurred largely by brightening economic prospects for China and resulting expectations of a boost to fuel demand in the world's second-biggest economy. The lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in China is set to increase global demand to a record high this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, a day after OPEC also forecast a Chinese demand rebound in 2023. Brent crude gained 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $86.54 a barrel by 0912 GMT. U.S. crude advanced 74 cents, or 0.9%, to $81.07."Many traders believe it is highly likely that we are going to see higher demand coming from China as it continues to dismantle its COVID policies," said Naeem Aslam, analyst at broker Avatrade. B0th benchmarks were heading for a weekly gain of about 1.5%. Oil was also supported by hopes that the U.S. central bank will soon downshift to smaller rises in interest rates and by hopes for the U.S. economic outlook.A Reuters poll predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve will end its tightening cycle after increases of 25 basis points at each of its next two policy meetings and is then likely to hold rates steady for at least the rest of the year.The chances of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy appear to be growing, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said on Thursday. The Fed's next rate-settingThe two largest economies in the world need more crude, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA."The oil market has been down on global recession fears, but it is still showing signs it can remain tight a little while longer," he said.Oil rose despite U.S. inventory figures this week showing crude stockpiles rose by 8.4 million barrels in the week to Jan. 13 to about 448 million barrels, the highest since June 2021.
WTI Feb. Futures Expire at 2-Month High on Large Rig Count Drop -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Friday's session higher, with the February West Texas Intermediate contract expiring above $81 per barrel. The gains came after industry data reported the number of oil-targeted rigs in the United States unexpectedly declined this week, while a softer U.S. dollar index further boosted buying interest for U.S. crude benchmark. Bakers Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. oil rigs dropped by 10 this week -- the largest weekly decline since late 2021 that depressed the total rig count to 613. Even the prolific Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico saw a decline in activity, with its oil rig-count falling from a nearly three-year high of 353 rigs the week prior. The decline is inconsistent with forecasts for robust U.S. production growth this year and fueled concerns that the weakening economy could be behind the softer drilling activity. This week's macroeconomic data painted a rather dismal outlook for the U.S. economy at the start of the year, with business activity in manufacturing and service sectors falling to post-pandemic lows. Sharp deceleration across the key sectors of the economy suggests the Fed's aggressive rate hikes have clearly worked their way into the broader economy, depressing consumer demand. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard indicated in remarks on Thursday that the central bank is still "probing" for the correct level of interest rates that will both tame inflation and ensure the economy avoids recession. "Inflation has been declining over the past few months against a backdrop of moderate growth," said Brainard, adding that "significant weakening in the manufacturing sector and a moderation in consumer spending pointing to subdued economy in 2023." At settlement, West Texas Intermediate for February delivery expired at $81.31 per barrel (bbl), up by $0.98 on the session, with the March contract expanding its premium against the expired contract to $0.33. Brent March futures on ICE rallied $1.47 to $87.63 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB February contract advanced to $2.6454 per gallon, up 4.86 cents on the session, and front-month ULSD futures jumped 9.09 cents to $3.4668 per gallon.
Saudi Arabia: Government Agents infiltrate Wikipedia, sentence Independent Admins to Prison– The Saudi Arabian government infiltrated Wikipedia by recruiting the organization’s highest ranked administrators in the country to serve as government agents to control information about the country and prosecuting those who contributed critical information about political detainees, said SMEX and Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) today. Following an internal investigation in 2022, Wikimedia terminated all of its administrators in Saudi Arabia in December. DAWN and SMEX documented Wikimedia’s infiltration by the Saudi government based on interviews with sources close to the company and the imprisoned administrators. “The Saudi government’s infiltration of Wikipedia with government agents acting as independent editors, and imprisonment of non-compliant editors, demonstrates not only its persistent use of spies inside international organizations but the dangers of attempting to produce independent content in the country,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, DAWN’s Executive Director. “It’s wildly irresponsible for international organizations and businesses to assume their affiliates can ever operate independently of, or safely from, Saudi government control.” Wikipedia relies on varying ranks of volunteer administrators and editors, referred to as “Wikipedia users,” authorized by Wikimedia, the parent company of Wikipedia. Users are not employees of Wikimedia and do not receive any compensation. However, Wikimedia has established the Wikipedia community rules to grant them privileges as trusted, independent editors who self-regulate and administer content on Wikipedia. Administrators have exclusive authorization to use tools to edit, delete, and protect content pages (meaning no one else can edit them), and to block and unblock lower-ranking users and editors. To learn more about the different user access levels on Wikipedia pleasevisit this page.
Recalling CNN’s Fraudulent “Interview” With A Seven Year-Old Syrian Girl – Caitlin Johnstone - There’s a thread going around on Twitter by Columbia University’s Sophie Fullerton advancing the claim that I have promoted crazy conspiracy theories about child “crisis actors” in Syrian war atrocities. Fullerton has me blocked on Twitter so I can’t respond to her there, but in her thread she brings up one of the most egregious instances I’ve ever seen of US war propaganda in the mass media, so it’s worth taking some time to unpack her claims here as a public service. Fullerton has written for The Washington Post slamming social media users who travel to Syria and dispute the official mainstream narrative about what’s been happening in that country, and has served as an expert analyst in a Daily Beast hit piece on the progressive Gravel Institute for their scrutiny of US warmongering. So it’s fair to call her a spinmeister on the side of the US empire, and it’s probably fair to predict that her young career will bring her tremendous success and mainstream elevation as a result of this. “It takes a special kind of evil to see what happened yesterday in Dnipro and immediately start doing PR for the perpetrator,” Fullerton tweets, with a screenshot of me saying it’s deceitful for people to talk about the Russian invasion of Ukraine without also talking about the ways the US empire provoked and benefits from this war. “It should come at no surprise that this account built a following out of claiming Syrian children impacted by Assad/Russia atrocities were crisis actors,” she adds. Fullerton’s thread has gained a lot of traction because it has been amplified by Olga Lautman, a Senior Fellow at the imperialist think tank Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) with a large following. CEPA’s donor list includes the US State Department, the CIA cutout National Endowment for Democracy, and the weapons manufacturers Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and General Atomics. Fullerton uses the phrase “crisis actors” to evoke the image most people have of that term and what it means: conspiracy theories about actors pretending to have been wounded or otherwise involved in a false flag mass shooting or bombing incident, particularly Alex Jones’s infamous claims about Sandy Hook victims. But for her evidence of my “crisis actors” conspiracy theorizing, Fullerton cites something very different from any such claim. She cites an article I wrote in 2018 titled “That Time CNN Staged A Fake Interview With A Syrian Child For War Propaganda“, and revealingly she includes only a screenshot of the top of the article rather than providing a link. She did this because the arguments made in the article are unassailable, and she doesn’t want people to see them. In 2017 CNN conducted a fraudulent interview with a seven year-old Syrian child named Bana Alabed, whose name had earlier been popularized by a Twitter account operated by an adult calling for US interventionism in Syria to overthrow president Bashar al-Assad. I know the interview was fraudulent not because I’m some kind of dogged investigative journalist who spent months digging into the facts and the sources, but because I watched the interview. It is plain as day that the child was either reading or reciting words that had been prepared for her, and every comment I can see on CNN’s YouTube share of the segment agrees with this assessment. To the best of my knowledge, no serious attempt has ever been made by anyone to dispute this.
Russia’s Dnipro strike exposes holes in Ukrainian defense system - A Russian missile strike over the weekend at an apartment complex in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro exposed a weakness in Ukraine’s air defenses, just as many fear more brutal Russian attacks are on the horizon.The Dnipro strike killed 45 people, including six children, and injured another 79 people in one of the most devastating attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population since Moscow’s invasion nearly a year ago.Russia has targeted critical infrastructure and energy grids in Ukraine with strikes since October, hoping to cow the Ukrainian people into submission after facing numerous setbacks in the war.In the Dnipro strike, however, Ukraine says it was completely unable to stop the missile that hit the apartment complex because it lacked the defense capabilities to intercept it. The deadly incident, just days after the Kremlin’s appointment of a new commander to oversee the war, is leading to concerns that a more desperate Russia will increasingly carry out such strikes and Ukraine will struggle to defend against them.Gian Gentile, the associate director of the nonprofit Rand Corporation’s Arroyoa Center, predicted Russia will keep up the strikes as it prepares to launch a potential ground offensive in coming months.“They may be moderating between going after infrastructure and power nodes” and civilian areas, he added. ”But they are following a playbook that lots of other countries have taken in war — and that is to punish the civilian population.” After the strike, a Kremlin spokesperson said Moscow does not target residential areas and attributed blame for the attack on Ukrainian air defenses, according to the Kyiv Post. The U.K. Defence Ministry said the Dnipro strike was part of a weekend barrage of missiles targeting power grids and not a direct assault on the multistory apartment complex, noting the Kh-22 missile used in the Jan. 14 attack is“notoriously inaccurate.”
U.S. cable: Russian paramilitary group set to get cash infusion from expanded African mine - The Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization linked to Russia, is expanding its mining projects in Africa to bring in millions to prop up its military operations in Ukraine, according to a Western official and a U.S. cable obtained by POLITICO. Over the past year, Wagner has significantly expanded its work in one country — the Central African Republic — where it could see mining profits soar to almost $1 billion, according to the official and the diplomatic cable. That funding will likely be used by the group to acquire new weapons and fighters, the official said. The group, owned by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, engages in paramilitary activities across the globe, including in Africa and the Middle East, and has become increasingly active on the frontlines in Ukraine. The Kremlin denies any official link to Wagner. U.S. officials have for years warned that Wagner has been using mining profits to help prop up the Russian state amid Western sanctions. The details about the projects in CAR show that Wagner’s mining efforts are becoming increasingly lucrative for the organization and creating a pipeline of funding for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Wagner set up shop in CAR in 2018, creating a cultural center and striking several deals to help secure mining sites, including at the Ndassima gold mine located near the town of Bambari in the middle of the country. Since then, Wagner has turned the once-artisanal mine into a massive complex, according to the cable. Today, the mine spans eight production zones in various stages of development — the largest estimated to be approximately over 200 feet deep, according to the cable. The U.S. has assessed that the group is helping construct the site for long-term exploitation and has fortified the mine, constructing bridges at river crossings and with truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns at key locations. “These new developments that they’re taking indicate long-term plans for the mine,” said Catrina Doxsee, associate director and associate fellow for the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a D.C.-based think tank. “The fact that they are establishing an expanded mining operation, that they’re establishing these long-term plans, I think really points to how integrated they’ve become with the local military and the level of dependency that the CAR government has on them.”
What if Russia Won the Ukraine War but the Western Press Didn’t Notice? - As Lambert, a battle-scarred veteran of the War in Iraq information wars has repeatedly volunteered, the propaganda shrouding the Ukraine conflict is far more intense and truth-disengaged than anything has encountered. I agree. And as readers and colleagues have attested, it’s also turned plenty of formerly-thinking people into narrative wind-up dolls.A big reason for the orgy of hype has been that, as Alexander Vershinin pointed out in a recent article in Russia Matters, it is essential for Ukraine to maintain the appearance of success to keep aid flowing:Ukraine’s second constraint is the coalition nature of its warfare. Since running out of its own stocks, Ukraine is increasingly reliant on Western weaponry. Maintaining the Western coalition is crucial to the Ukrainian war effort. Without a constant string of victories, domestic economic concern may cause coalition members to defect. If Western support dries up due to depletion of stock or of political will, Ukraine’s war effort collapses for lack of supplies. In some ways, Ukraine has no choice but to launch attacks no matter the human and material cost.Mind you, the level of outside backing is greater than Vershinin suggests. The US and its allies are funding Ukraine’s budget deficit. The West has also been providing more manpower support. Ursula von der Leyen had to try to walk back an end-of-November scripted remark that Russia had killed 100,000 Ukraine soldiers. More recently, Douglas Macgregor put the deaths in Ukraine forces at 150,000 and casualties at 450,000.1 Remember at the start of the war, Ukraine’s total forces, including reservists, were roughly 600,000. So reports from Russian forces even as of a couple of months ago, based on radio chatter, that estimated some opposing units were as much as 70% foreign based on chatter in Polish, Romanian, and English seems entirely possible.Remember also that at the beginning, most Western military experts expected Russia to quickly dispatch Ukraine and were surprised to work out that Russia had not only gone in with comparatively light forces but didn’t have large reserved ready to go. Even so, independent experts often observe that Russia did dispatch most of Ukraine’s initial equipment and much of its manpower.Even so, the West, having spent decades fighting wars against insurgents, wasn’t prepared for the burn rate of this conflict. So it has been imperative to keep thumping that Russia is being beaten to keep the money flowing long enough to make that a reality…as if the West’s defense misspending could be solved by throwing more money at the problem.Ukraine’s Mighty Wurlitzer has been dutifully amplified by the Western media: the ghost of Kiev, Snake Island, the insinuations that Russia bombed itself at both the Zaporzhizhia nuclear plant and the Nord Stream pipelines and specific claims that Russia engaging in human wave tactics to horrific losses. We also see hoary old fables like Russia having primitive everything – equipment, technology, training, leadership – predisposing broad swathes of the public to accept derivative spin like the neverending, nevertrue claims that Russia was running out of artillery and missiles. And we’ve seen an unrelenting deluge of Big Lies, like Putin’s incredible roster of heath problems, his supposed weak hold on power and resulting paranoia, that feeds another oft-told tale, that Putin’s ouster is just in sight by implication would lead to him being replaced by someone more tractable. And as a corollary “Russia is generally bad at everything” comes the claims that Russia’s “conscript” army is suffering from terrible morale and desertions because they are losing so many men compared to the highly motivated, well-trained and equipped, and more blonde Ukrainians. Nevertheless, Soledar has fallen and the loss of Bakhmut looks baked in, absent horrific Russian errors. The so-called Zelensky line is breaking even before Russia has put its recently-mobilized forces to work in a serious way. Regular commentators are waiting for the Russian hammer to fall, although Russia may simply grind more forcefully by pressing harder at more points along the very long line of contact. Remember one concern on the Russian side is avoiding “winning” in a way that leads to NATO panic and desperate action…not that the Collective West’s fragile emotional state can be readily managed.With that context, you’d expect some members of the press to have worked out that things are not going very well for Ukraine and the classic cowboy movie rescue of the calvary riding over the hill (here in the form of tanks and artillery) will be too little, too late.Instead, the media seems to be trying to integrate snippets of facts on the ground with the heroic tale of inevitable Ukraine victory. We’ll stick to headlines since they have an impact regardless of whether the rest of the story gets read. Lambert and others flagged the Financial Times story below as an extreme form of flipping facts:
Spoils Of The Sanctions War – NATO Lion Meets Russian Tit For Tat - As democracy goes in states at war, in Russia there is more of it — faction fighting, public criticism, media debate — about battlefield operations, wins and losses, than there is on the NATO side, in the US, Canada, Germany, France or England.By contrast, on the conduct of domestic economic policy, in Russia there is much less open argument than there is on the other side.This is surprising because the sanctions war has forced the US-controlled and NATO-allied banks and corporations to abandon their Russian business, halt production plants, close offices, cancel supply and marketing agreements, write down the value of their Russian assets, and withdraw from Russia if they can. The outcome is an opportunity, a revolutionary one, for Russia’s businessmen to take over the foreign assets and operate them for domestic profit for the first time in many years.In theory, there has been active debate in Moscow about how this re-nationalization should be managed, and to whose profit. On one side, there has been Sergei Glazyev and his Anti-Crisis Expert Council which includes the public economist Mikhail Khazin and Duma deputy Mikhail Delyagin. On the other side, the oligarch lobby known as the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE), led by Alexander Shokhin.In practice, Glazyev has kept his government job as minister for integration and macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC, aka EAEU ), the bloc of former Soviet states coordinating customs, central banking, trade and fiscal management policies together. However, Glazyev has lost the fights he has waged for change in Central Bank policy and in the priorities of the government’s war economy. Like Glazyev, Khazin and Delyagin have kept their tribunes, but their message has proved unsuccessful.At the same time, Elvira Nabiullina – Glazyev’s attack target as Governor of the Central Bank – has kept her Kremlin mandate and her policies. Her former patron, Alexei Kudrin, has lost his post at the head of the Accounting Chamber but received Kremlin promotion instead to run the new presidential campaign fund created around the Yandex group of companies, owned byArkady Volozh.How much then of the opportunity to convert the foreign-owned assets to new purpose in the Russian economy is being seized by the well-known oligarch faction? What evidence is there for the political defeat of the Glazyev faction? What is the current balance-sheet of foreign assets lost to Russia and Russian assets gained by the US side?
UK Sending Heavy Tanks Will Only "Intensify" Conflict With "More Casualties": Kremlin - The Ukrainian government has recently issued a call for its Western backers to provide heavy tanks so in can beat back Russian forces, after countries like Poland and other Eastern European governments have already provided an estimated 300 modernized Soviet tanks since last February. But Kiev is urging for hundreds more Western-manufactured tanks to be sent, especially the US M1 Abrams. But so far Washington has only pledged light infantry carriers - the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. As we detailed previously, it's now the UK and Poland leading the charge among allies to send tanks, given London lately announced it will send the the Challenger 2, widely considered a highly capable main battle tank. But a new warning from Moscow has said the decision will only intensify the conflict, saying that instead of bringing any significant Ukrainian edge on the battlefield, more civilians will be harmed in the fighting. "Bringing tanks to the conflict zone, far from drawing the hostilities to a close, will only serve to intensify combat operations, generating more casualties, including among the civilian population," a weekend statement by the Russian embassy in London said. Undeterred by Russia's warnings, Ukrainian President Zelensky thanked the UK for the takes, suggesting that Britain has made it easier for other allies to send heavy tanks. He said this "will not only strengthen us on the battle field, but also send the right signal to other partners". Zelensky and his top officials have also repeatedly requested air power in order to "close the skies" given clearly Russia has a significant aerial tactical advantage, though the US is now training Ukrainian personnel on how to operate Patriot anti-air defense missiles. "To win this war, we need more military equipment, heavy equipment," a statement from Zelensky's office also urged. Poland days ago pledged German-made Leopard tanks. As for air power, UK tabloid papers have reported that Britain will also supply a handful of Apache attack helicopters, but this prompted an immediate denial of the claims by the British government.
German General Tells US Generals to Lose the Ukraine War as Soon as Possible to Prevent Losing the Empire in Europe -The German generals are trying it again. That’s the Wolf’s Lair plot of July 20, 1944. To save themselves, they are begging their counterparts in Washington, DC, to find a way to lose the war in the Ukraine as quickly as possible without losing the US empire in Germany. This means overruling or replacing, not only Vladimir Zelensky’s regime in Kiev but also the Green Party ministers in power in Berlin, Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, and maybe Chancellor Olaf Scholz to boot. The Wehrmacht plotter this time is a retired brigadier general named Erich Vad (lead image, right). As German military officers go, he’s unusual. He was trained by a German-born Israeli infantry general turned academic. Vad then reached general’s rank, according to a senior German politician, but “never led a battalion, never led a brigade, and was never deployed in active operations”; he is a “desk general”. Vad’s self-advertisements mention no active service or combat command. Instead, he has filled advisor posts at the Bundestag (2000-2006) and the Chancellery (2006-2013) when Angela Merkel was chancellor. Since 2014 he has been selling his advice either through Vad’s own consulting firm in Munich or a Swiss intermediary company in Zurich. Merkel appointed Vad for the German military and the armaments industry to have a voice inside her office. Because they didn’t regard Vad as one of their own, Merkel promoted him to general’s rank.The bomb Vad has just placed under Zelensky’s table and under the Green ministers’ desks in Berlin can be spotted in an interview he published last week in Cologne.In his new press statement, as in every one of them since he left the Chancellery in Berlin, Vad is a supporter of war with Russia and its allies. “It was and is right to support Ukraine,” he declaresat the beginning, “and of course Putin’s attack is not in accordance with international law.”In his latest press statement, dated January 13, 2023, Vad has warned that the Scholz government’s decision to supply the German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, in a joint rearmament plan with the US and France, “is a military escalation, also in the perception of the Russians, even if the 40-year old Marder is not a miracle weapon. We go on a slide. This could develop a momentum of its own that we can no longer control.”Vad means the war in the Ukraine has already passed the point at which the US and German military believe they can control the outcome. “Now the consequences must be finally be considered” – this is Vad’s acknowledgement the war against Russia is being lost in the Ukraine.Asked what “consequences” he means,Vad has replied with rhetorical questions: “Do they want to reconquer Donbass or Crimea? Or do they even want to defeat Russia completely?” Vad was identifying the goals of the civilian leaders in Berlin and in the State Department.“We have a military operational stalemate, but we cannot resolve it militarily”, he noted, adding “this is also the opinion of the American Chief of Staff Mark Milley.” What Vad was implying was not “stalemate” but defeat – defeat by the Russian Army of the war allies in the Ukraine, including all the NATO reinforcements and operational plans. Those, Vad has dismissed: “There is no realistic end-state definition”.He has then attacked the Green Party ministers in the German ruling coalition — explicitly Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and implicitly Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. “I am glad that we finally have a foreign minister in Germany, but it is not enough to just engage in war rhetoric and walk around Kiev or the Donbass with helmets and flak vests… I do not understand the Green’s mutation from a pacifist to a war party. I myself don’t know of any Green who has even done military service…The fact that a single party has so much political influence that it can manoeuvre us into a war is worrying.”.
Russia, China to hold naval drills off South Africa - ABC News -- Russia and China will conduct naval drills in the Indian Ocean off the coast of South Africa next month, in another indication of their strengthening relationships with Africa's most developed country amid the war in Ukraine and global financial uncertainty. The South African armed forces said Thursday that they and the Russian and Chinese navies will engage in “a multinational maritime exercise” from Feb. 17-27 off South Africa's east coast near the cities of Durban and Richards Bay. The drills will happen around the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 and will bring more focus on the push by Russia and China for global influence, and the refusal of South Africa — a leading voice on its continent — to side with the West and condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The announcement also comes days before Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to visit South Africa and hold talks with South African counterpart Naledi Pandor. The South African government said it has a neutral stance over Ukraine and has called for dialogue and diplomacy, but the upcoming naval drills have led the country's main opposition party to accuse the government of effectively siding with Russia. The South African government denies it has taken sides and has called for the end of the war. But the South African National Defense Force, which incorporates all of its armed forces, said next month's naval exercise would “strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China.” The aim of the drills was “sharing operational skills and knowledge,” the SANDF said. The three countries also conducted a similar naval exercise in 2019 in Cape Town, while Russia and China held joint naval drills in the East China Sea last month.
South Africa to stage joint naval drills with Russia, China in February | Africanews --South Africa, which has always refused to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, announced Thursday the organization in February of joint maneuvers with the Russian and Chinese navies off its coast. "South Africa will host the Chinese and Russian Federation navies in a multilateral maritime exercise between February 17 and 27," the South African military confirmed in a statement. "In order to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China," the joint maneuvers will take place off Durban, the largest port in southern Africa, and Richards Bay some 180 km further north, the statement said. "This will be the second time that such an exercise is held in the presence of the three naval forces, the first having taken place in November 2019 in Cape Town, South Africa," recalls the army. These maneuvers will involve more than 350 South African military personnel "from several services and divisions" alongside "their Russian and Chinese counterparts with the aim of sharing skills and operational knowledge," the statement further said. South Africa, one of the continent's powers, has taken a neutral stance since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, refusing to join Western calls to condemn Moscow. Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Alliance has slammed the decision, saying it means that contrary to its "neutral" stance on Russia’s Ukraine war, South Africa’s ruling African National Congress party has effectively sided with Moscow.
Why China’s Shrinking Population Is a Big Deal – Counting the Social, Economic and Political Costs of an Aging, Smaller Society - Throughout much of recorded human history, China has boasted the largest population in the world – and until recently, by some margin.So news that the Chinese population is now in decline, and will sometime later this year besurpassed by that of India, is big news even if long predicted.As a scholar of Chinese demographics, I know that the figures released by Chinese government on Jan. 17, 2023, showing that for the first time in six decades, deaths in the previous year outnumbered births is no mere blip. While that previous year of shrinkage, 1961 – during theGreat Leap Forward economic failure, in which an estimated 30 million people died of starvation – represented a deviation from the trend, 2022 is a pivot. It is the onset of what is likely to be a long-term decline. By the end of the century, the Chinese population is expected to shrink by 45%, according to the United Nations. And that is under the assumption that China maintains its current fertility rate of around 1.3 children per couple, which it may not.This decline in numbers will spur a trend that already concerns demographers in China: a rapidly aging society. By 2040, around a quarter of the Chinese population is predicted to be over the age of 65.In short, this is a seismic shift. It will have huge symbolic and substantive impacts on China in three main areas.In the space of 40 years, China has largely completed a historic transformation from an agrarian economy to one based on manufacturing and the service industry. This has been accompanied byincreases in the standard of living and income levels. But the Chinese government has long recognized that the country can no longer rely on the labor-intensive economic growth model of the past. Technological advances and competition from countries that can provide a cheaper workforce such as Vietnam and India have rendered this old model largely obsolete.This historical turning point in China’s population trend serves as a further wake-up call to move the country’s model more quickly to a post-manufacturing, post-industrial economy – an aging, shrinking population does not fit the purposes of a labor-intensive economic model.As to what it means for China’s economy, and that of the world, population decline and an aging society will certainly provide Beijing with short-term and long-term challenges. In short, it means there will be fewer workers able to feed the economy and spur further economic growth on one side of the ledger; on the other, a growing post-work population will need potentially costly support.It is perhaps no coincidence then that 2022, as well as being a pivotal year for China in terms of demographics, also saw one of the worst economic performances the country has experienced since 1976, according to data released on Jan. 17. The rising share of elderly people in China’s population is more than an economic issue – it will also reshape Chinese society. Many of these elderly people only have one child, due to the one-child policy in place for three and a half decades before being relaxed in 2016.The large number of aging parents with only one child to rely on for support will likely impose severe constraints – not least for the elderly parents, who will need financial support. They will also need emotional and social support for longer as a result of extended life expectancy.It will also impose constraints on those children themselves, who will need to fulfill obligations to their career, provide for their own children and support their elderly parents simultaneously.Responsibility will fall on the Chinese government to provide adequate health care and pensions. But unlike in Western democracies that have by now had many decades to develop social safety nets, the speed of the demographic and economic change in China has meant that Beijing struggled to keep pace.
Jacinda Ardern resigns as New Zealand’s prime minister – New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will resign from the top job “no later” than February 7, she announced on Thursday at a press conference at her party’s annual caucus meeting, saying she didn’t have “enough in the tank” to continue. Ardern, who became the youngest female head of government when she was elected prime minister in 2017 aged 37, confirmed New Zealanders will head to the polls for a national election on October 14 this year, and that she would not stand for reelection. “It’s time,” Ardern said on Thursday of her plans to step down as prime minister. “I’m leaving, because with such a privileged role comes responsibility,” she said. “The responsibility to know when you are the right person to lead and also when you are not. I know what this job takes. And I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice. It’s that simple.” Speaking to her 4-year-old daughter Neve, Ardern said she was looking forward to spending time with her when she started school this year. In a message to her fiancé Clarke Gayford, she said: “Let’s finally get married.” Ardern said that while she knew there would be “much discussion in the aftermath of this decision as to what the so-called real reason was, I can tell you that what I’m sharing today, is it. The only interesting angle that you will find is that after going on six years of some big challenges, I am human, politicians are human. We give all that we can for as long as we can. And then it’s time. And for me, it’s time,” she said.
BOJ defies market bets for policy tweaks, sending yen tumbling (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan on Wednesday maintained ultra-low interest rates, including a bond yield cap it was struggling to defend, defying market expectations it would phase out its massive stimulus programme in the wake of rising inflationary pressure. The surprise decision sent the yen skidding against other currencies as investors unwound bets they made anticipating the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy. At a two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The central bank also made no change to its guidance that allows the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target. In a sign of its resolve to keep defending the cap, the BOJ beefed up a key market operation tool to more effectively curb rises in long-term interest rates.
Europeans Are Divided Over Air Taxis - Air taxis are predicted to hit the skies in 2024 and 2025 in a handful of cities around the world. A number of established aerospace corporations such as Airbus as well as startup competitors, many of which are backed up by automotive manufacturers, are racing to bring their products to market, whether they are self-autonomous or piloted vehicles.The European Union Aviation Safety Agency conducted a survey across several European cities to find out where residents stand on the new technology. As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, when asked if they would be rather/ very likely to try out an air taxi, all countries were fairly evenly split. This was with the caveat that an air taxi would be expected to cost 25-50 percent more than current road passenger options, such as Uber or a local taxi, but would take around half the time to reach the destination.At the more welcoming end of results, just over half of the respondents in Budapest and Milan (54 percent) said they would try the new type of taxi, versus a slightly lower 41 percent that said they would in Norway/Denmark’s Öresund region.Where 7 in 10 Europeans said they could accept the fact that manned air taxis could fly above their heads, they were less sure of the prospect of an unmanned air taxi (44 percent). These levels of apprehension were similar when considering being a potential passenger rather than a pedestrian, with 75 percent of respondents saying they would be interested in trying out a manned air taxi themselves versus 43 percent that would be open to trying an unmanned model.Safety was the major concern cited among respondents, as well as noise, for instance near the vertipads used for take off and landing, security, and thoughts for local and global environmental issues. The latter includes a negative impact on bird life and insects, decreases of biodiversity, and the global environmental impact on climate change. Researchers found that these concerns varied by subgroup, for example, safety and noise concerns increased slightly with age, education and income, while more women and younger respondents shared environmental concerns.
Ukrainian refugees give up on crisis-hit NHS and travel home to war zone for medical treatment - Ukrainian refugees who travelled to the UK to escape the war are risking their lives by returning to their homeland to seek urgent medical treatments after giving up on the NHS.Due the NHS pressures and long waiting lists for procedures, Ukrainians living with families across the UK are taking the perilous trip back into a war zone where they are treated by doctors immediately despite Russian bombardments of their towns and cities.Soon after President Vladimir Putin sent Russian troops into Ukraine on 24 Februarylast year, the UK Government announced that all refugees from the country would be permitted free and full access to NHS services.Maiia Habruk escaped Kyiv last spring along with around five million fellow citizensand found a safe haven with a couple in south east London. But she returned to Ukraine in mid-December after failing to get the treatment she needed from her local hospital in Lewisham.Ms Habruk, 31, suffers from angina and, despite experiencing chest pains was unable to book a face-to-face appointment with a GP. During a phone consultation she was told to take paracetamol, but the pain persisted.Soon after this, Ms Habruk also suffered from severe pain in her cheek and waited four hours in local A&E department before getting to the front of the queue.“I had hellish pain in my face,” said Maiia. “I couldn’t sleep, and the painkillers didn’t work.“I went to the NHS chatroom online and I was told to wait for a call the following day, but the call did not happen, so I went to the hospital.“After waiting four hours the doctor didn’t even look at me and she also told me to take paracetamol. Again, it didn’t help, and I was still in severe pain.”She decided the only way to get the treatment she believed she required was to make the 24-hour trip back to Ukraine, which includes a flight to Poland and a long and dangerous train journey to Kyiv.“I was told it was an urgent issue with my wisdom tooth and that I had to have an extraction immediately,” added Ms Habruk.
National Education Union members vote for strike action in England and Wales - Members of the National Education Union (NEU), the largest UK teaching union with 450,000 members, voted to strike to demand a fully funded pay rise of 12 percent. The vote announced Monday expresses a determination by educators to overturn the decades-long suppression of wages and decimation of the education sector. According to the NEU, it is the largest vote for strike action in any sector since 2016 when anti-union laws were imposed demanding all ballots meet a 50 percent-plus threshold. Some 23,400 schools will be involved in strike action with over 121,000 educators returning ballots. Over 90 percent of teachers who voted supported strike action in England (turnout was 53.2 percent) and over 92 percent in Wales (turnout 58 percent). NEU support staff members in Wales also voted for strike action, but failed to meet the threshold in England. The National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) also announced the result of their ballot Monday, a 42 percent turnout that did not meet the threshold. This was the first strike ballot of head teachers in their 125-year history. Of those who voted, 64 percent supported strike action, underlining the magnitude of the crisis among those tasked with managing schools and budgets. The NEU result follows that of the NASUWT last Thursday which failed to meet the threshold with a 42 percent turnout. Both unions plan to make announcements on possible new strike ballots as anger by members erupted on social media over the inability of the union leaders to fight for strike mandates. There are reports on social media and union websites of many NASUWT members leaving to join the NEU so they can strike. This expresses the powerful sentiment that exists for a fightback, but teachers cannot have any confidence in the NEU to lead an offensive to overturn the dramatic decline in living standards and total catastrophe that confronts education. A new perspective is required, based on mobilising the independent mass strength of the working class, to organise a general strike and create the conditions to fight for policies that are rooted in the interests of society and not the super-rich is necessary.
Tech Bosses Face Criminal Charges In UK If Children Exposed To Harmful Content - Tech executives whose online platforms routinely fail to protect children from "online harm" will face criminal charges and up to two years in jail, after UK ministers reached a deal this week. Rishi Sunak was facing the prospect of defeat in a Commons vote on Tuesday after a rebel amendment to the online safety bill won opposition support. However, supporters have now withdrawn the amendment after the government agreed to change the legislation. -The Guardian As part of the agreed upon legislation, senior managers at tech firms who ignore child safety warnings from Ofcom, the UK's communications regulator, would be held criminally liable over content deemed 'harmful.' Examples include the promotion of self-harm and eating disorders. So basically, anything 'they' don't like and deem 'harmful.' Tech executives who can prove they've "acted in good faith to comply in a proportionate way" will be spared charges.
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