week ending Jan 7

Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $458 Billion from Peak: January Update on QT and the Fed’s Losses    by Wolf Richter --   Total assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet dropped by $458 billion since the peak in April, to $8.51 trillion, the lowest since October 6, 2021, according to the weekly balance sheet released today, with balances as of January 4.   Compared to a month ago (balance sheet released on December 8), total assets dropped by $75 billion. Treasury securities: -$314 billion from peak.Treasury notes and bonds mature mid-month and at the end of the month, at which point the Fed gets paid face value for them, and they roll off the Fed’s balance sheet. Since the peak in early June, the Fed’s Treasury holdings fell by $314 billion to $5.48 trillion, the lowest since October 6, 2021. Over the past month, the Fed’s holdings of Treasury securities fell by $57 billion, near the cap of $60 billion. About half of the $3 billion difference between the cap and the roll-off is due to $1.5 billion of income from inflation protection that is not paid in cash but is added to the principal of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Mortgage-backed securities: -$99 billion from peak. The balance of MBS dropped by $99 billion since the peak, to $2.64 trillion. Over the past month, the balance dropped by $17 billion, below the cap of $35 billion. MBS come off the balance sheet largely via pass-through principal payments as mortgages are paid off or are paid down. But these pass-through principal payments have turned into a trickle after mortgage rates spiked, causing refinancings of existing mortgages to collapse and home sales to swoon. These pass-through principal payments, which reduce the MBS balances, are the downward zigs in the chart below. The Fed stopped buying MBS entirely in mid-September, after having already cut its purchases to near nothing in the prior months. These inflows are the upward zags in the chart, which ended in September. There have been some mentions by various Fed governors about the possibility of selling MBS outright to get somewhere near the cap of $35 billion a month – which means that the Fed might have to sell between $10-$20 billion a month in MBS. There was no mention of this in the minutes of the December meeting. So we’ll see if we get more discussions of this cropping up. Unamortized Premiums: -$42 billion from peak. The securities that the Fed bought in the secondary market, at a time when market yields were lower than the coupon interest of the securities, the Fed, like everyone else, had to pay a “premium” over face value. But when the bond matures, the Fed, like everyone else, gets paid face value. In other words, in return for the above-market coupon interest payments, there will be a capital loss in the amount of the premium when the bond matures. Instead of booking the capital loss when the bond matures, the Fed spreads the write-off over the life of the bond by amortizing the premium in small increments every week. To show the process of this, the Fed accounts for the premiums in a separate account, called “Unamortized Premiums,” which has been steadily declining as the premiums are written off.

Fed's Bullard Says Rates Are Getting Closer To Sufficiently High - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said interest rates are getting closer to a high enough level to bring down inflation, suggesting he’s comfortable with policymakers’ projections of how much further they will hike this year. Bullard, in a presentation Thursday to business leaders in St. Louis, pointed to optimistic signs that price gains could slow further this year and that the central bank may succeed in taming the strongest inflation in a generation. His remarks also stopped short of hammering home the hawkish tone he delivered through much of last year, when he was ahead of peers in advocating for the US central bank to take more aggressive moves to cool prices. “The policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive, but it is getting closer,” Bullard said in the slide deck. A chart in his presentation suggested that Fed officials’ median projection for where rates will end this year, at 5.1%, is in the territory of being restrictive enough to rein in inflation. Bullard’s presentation didn’t specify how high he prefers rates to rise or indicate whether the Fed should again slow its pace of rate hikes at the next meeting. The St. Louis Fed chief said the central bank’s actions have helped to lower inflation expectations to a level “consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.” He said he also sees inflation falling to a lower level this year as the economy “normalizes.” Fed officials raised rates by a half point last month, slowing down after four straight 75 basis-point hikes while extending the most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s. That brought the target on its benchmark rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Officials also issued fresh forecasts that showed they expect policy to remain tight this year, with 17 out of 19 officials projecting rates above 5% by the end of 2023. No Fed official forecast rate cuts this year. Minutes of the Fed’s Dec. 13-14 meeting, released Wednesday, showed that policymakers last month affirmed their commitment to bringing down inflation. Officials also warned against an “unwarranted” loosening of financial conditions, which suggested frustration that markets could undermine their efforts to tame prices. Several Fed officials this week have reiterated their concerns that inflation is still too high, with Kansas City Fed President Esther George saying earlier Thursday that she sees the federal funds rate remaining above 5% well into 2024. “I see staying there for some time, again, until we get the signals that inflation is really convincingly starting to fall back toward our 2% goal,” George said Thursday in an interview on CNBC television. That followed remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic that inflation is still “way too high” and remains the biggest headwind in the US. “I appreciate recent reports that include signs of moderating price pressures, but there is still much work to do,” he said at a Fed conference in New Orleans Thursday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an essay Wednesday that he projects rates will rise to 5.4%.

FOMC Minutes: Participants continued to anticipate ongoing rate increases --From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 13–14, 2022. Excerpt:In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee's objectives. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, participants judged that it would be appropriate to take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. With inflation staying persistently above the Committee's 2 percent goal and the labor market remaining very tight, all participants had raised their assessment of the appropriate path of the federal funds rate relative to their assessment at the time of the September meeting. No participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023. Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2 percent, which was likely to take some time. In view of the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several participants commented that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy.
In light of the heightened uncertainty regarding the outlooks for both inflation and real economic activity, most participants emphasized the need to retain flexibility and optionality when moving policy to a more restrictive stance. Participants generally noted that the Committee's future decisions regarding policy would continue to be informed by the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, and that the Committee would continue to make decisions meeting by meeting.
Participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to returning inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective. A number of participants emphasized that it would be important to clearly communicate that a slowing in the pace of rate increases was not an indication of any weakening of the Committee's resolve to achieve its price-stability goal or a judgment that inflation was already on a persistent downward path. Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee's reaction function, would complicate the Committee's effort to restore price stability. Several participants commented that the medians of participants' assessments for the appropriate path of the federal funds rate in the Summary of Economic Projections, which tracked notably above market-based measures of policy rate expectations, underscored the Committee's strong commitment to returning inflation to its 2 percent goal.Participants discussed a number of risk-management considerations related to the conduct of monetary policy. Many participants highlighted that the Committee needed to continue to balance two risks. One risk was that an insufficiently restrictive monetary policy could cause inflation to remain above the Committee's target for longer than anticipated, leading to unanchored inflation expectations and eroding the purchasing power of households, especially for those already facing difficulty making ends meet. The other risk was that the lagged cumulative effect of policy tightening could end up being more restrictive than is necessary to bring down inflation to 2 percent and lead to an unnecessary reduction in economic activity, potentially placing the largest burdens on the most vulnerable groups of the population. Participants generally indicated that upside risks to the inflation outlook remained a key factor shaping the outlook for policy. A couple of participants noted that risks to the inflation outlook were becoming more balanced. Participants generally observed that maintaining a restrictive policy stance for a sustained period until inflation is clearly on a path toward 2 percent is appropriate from a risk-management perspective.

Fed Minutes Warn Against Underestimating Rate Campaign; Kashkari Sees Rate Increases at Next Few Fed Meetings -- Minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month, released yesterday, indicated officials would continue raising interest rates in case price pressures prove more persistent this year. Inflation moderated in October and November, but central bank officials "stressed that it would take substantially more evidence of progress to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path," the minutes said. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, in an essay published online Wednesday, said that he expects the Fed to pause rate rises after reaching a peak rate of 5.4%. He added that, "Wherever that end point is, we won't immediately know if it is high enough to bring inflation back down to 2% in a reasonable period of time." Federal Reserve officials offered uncharacteristically blunt words of warning to investors that cautioned against underestimating the central bank's determination to hold interest rates at higher levels to bring down inflation. Minutes of the Fed's policy meeting last month, released Wednesday, highlighted the tricky communications task that has vexed the central bank over the past six months. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expects the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates by another percentage point over the next few months, despite signs that inflation is decelerating. Job openings held nearly steady at historically high levels in November, a sign demand for labor remained strong at the end of 2022, with about 10.5 million available jobs , essentially unchanged from October. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledged to halve inflation and boost the economy this year as he seeks to overturn a hefty deficit in the polls and shore up a country beleaguered by rising prices and rolling strikes. Federal authorities are moving to seize hundreds of millions of dollars in assets in the U.S. tied to the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, a sign that the battle over control of the company's remaining funds is escalating. Crypto exchange Coinbase will pay a $50 million penalty to New York state's Department of Financial Services to settle accusations it let customers open accounts without sufficient background checks . The settlement will also require Coinbase to invest $50 million into its compliance program over the next two years.

Fed's Kashkari supports aggressive rate hikes to curb 'surge price' inflation — In an essay published Wednesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari admitted that he, like many of his fellow regulators and politicians, was wrong last year to insist that inflation would be "transitory." But he said the reason he and other policymakers were wrong was that they misunderstood the underlying causes of the recent inflation spike, which he compared to ride-hailing companies' "surge pricing" adjustments that raise costs when demand goes up to align it with supply. "From what I can tell, our models seem ill-equipped to handle a fundamentally different source of inflation, specifically, in this case, surge pricing inflation," Kashkari wrote.

Fed's George says rates should stay above 5% well into 2024 -- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said the central bank should raise its benchmark interest rate above 5% and hold it there well into 2024 to bring inflation down. "I have raised my forecast over 5%," George said Thursday in an interview on CNBC television, referring to her projection for the federal funds rate. "I see staying there for some time, again, until we get the signals that inflation is really convincingly starting to fall back toward our 2% goal." When asked if that was a projection that it would be appropriate to hold the federal funds rate above 5% well into 2024, she said, "it is for me."

Fed's Bullard says prospects for a U.S. soft landing are rising - (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve leader James Bullard expressed optimism on Thursday that the new year could finally bring relief from inflation, adding the risk of a U.S. recession has fallen in recent weeks. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee “has taken aggressive action during 2022, with ongoing increases in the policy rate planned for 2023, and this has returned inflation expectations to a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target,” Bullard said in material prepared for a presentation before a meeting held by the CFA Society St. Louis. “During 2023, actual inflation will likely follow inflation expectations to a lower level as the real economy normalizes,” he said. Bullard held a voting role on the FOMC during 2022 but will not this year due to the annual rotation of regional Fed leaders on that panel. Last year was dominated by the central bank’s historically aggressive campaign to lift rates to lower some of the highest levels of inflation seen in decades. That saw the central bank take its overnight short-term rate target from near zero levels in March to the current 4.25% to 4.50% range. The Fed last lifted that target in December, going up 50 basis points, and it penciled in a move to 5.1% this year. Officials have said wherever they stop with rates they are likely to stay for a while as they ensure inflation pressures are easing. Bullard said he is increasingly upbeat the Fed can achieve its goal of lowering inflation without sending the economy into a recession, as many Fed critics and economists now believe will happen. "The probability of a soft landing has increased compared to where it was in the fall of 2022, where it was looking more questionable," Bullard told reporters after his remarks. "And the reason I think that the prospects for a soft landing have increased is that the labor market has not weakened the way many had predicted" and growth levels rebounded from weakness, he said. "The labor market can remain fairly resilient during 2023," the official said, noting the many companies are still hiring. "This is a great time to fight inflation" because of the strong job market, Bullard said, adding "fight inflation now, get it under control, get it back to 2% while you've got the resilient labor market." Bullard said monetary policy is not yet in a space where it is holding the economy back but soon will be. "The policy rate is still a little bit below the sufficiently restrictive zone, so I think it would behoove the Committee to get into that zone as soon as we can," he told reporters. Bullard also said that he sees no reason to change the Fed's balance sheet drawdown, adding the Fed may have the chance to re-evaluate how many bonds to sell in six months to a year. He said the contraction of the Fed's balance sheet, which was at $9 trillion this summer and now stands $8.6 trillion, has been going well.

US Dollar Index: DXY is on the Verge of a Major Meltdown - The US dollar index (DXY) pulled back on the first trading day of the year amid thin volumes. It plunged to a low of $103.44, which was the lowest level since June 16 of 2022. It has fallen by over 10% from the highest point in 2022 as investors assess the next moves by the Federal Reserve. The DXY index retreat has coincided with the decline of American bond yields. The 10-year government bond yield has pulled back from its 2022 high of 4.33% to 3.87%. In the same period, yields of the 30-year government bonds fell from 4.4% to 3.9%. These yields remain close to their highest level in more than a decade. The performance of the bond market is a reflection of what the market expects the Fed to do. In its December meeting, the Fed decided to hike interest rate by 0.50%. It then hinted that it will continue increasing rates in 2023 even as inflation declined for the second straight month. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline consumer inflation data declined to 7.3% in November. Therefore, the US dollar index has declined because investors expect that the Fed will be less hawkish than it was in 2022. It hiked interest rates by 450 basis points and started its quantitative tightening policy that is reducing its balance sheet.The DXY index has retreated as hopes that America’s inflation will continue falling increased. The closely-watched 10-year breakeven rate has dropped from a high of 2.98% in April 2022 to the current 2.30%. This is an important figure that measures the expected inflation according to Treasury Constant Maturity Securities.  Inflation will likely continue falling because of a sharp reversal in factors that caused it in 2022. For example, supply chain disruptions have eased, with shipping costs dipping to the lowest level in years. In the same period, high inventories, especially in semiconductors has surged as demand for gadgets eased. Inventories have also jumped in other industries. Higher inventories leads to lower prices. Further, crude oil prices are well lower than where they were in the first quarter of 2022. And the natural gas price has declined as hopes of a warm January rise.

BankThink: This Congress can't raise the debt limit. That's bad. -  American Banker -- The first day of a new Congress is usually kind of a slow news day. There's a lot of pageantry and ceremony, speeches from the newly selected party leaders and the introduction of H.R. 1 outlining the majority's legislative priorities, whateverthosemaybe.  Not so today, when the House of Representatives failed to elect a speaker of the House from among its membership on the first ballot for the first time in 100 years (exactly!), initiating a high-wire game of chicken between Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who almost has enough votes, and a never-Kevin faction of his caucus who is insisting on anyone but him. For all I know — and it would be just my luck — McCarthy will be elected speaker before I'm even done writing this column, so maybe this episode ends up being little more than a really tough Trivial Pursuit question in the years to come. But to me, it raises the question: If the Republican majority is expressing this much inner turmoil on something that should be a formality, what other items of consequence could that inner turmoil stall or destroy?

House leadership is in limbo as McCarthy loses 3 rounds of voting for speaker - Leadership of the House of Representatives remains in limbo as California GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy faces internal opposition to his bid for speaker. On the first day of the new Congress, McCarthy failed to secure the 218 votes necessary to become speaker of the House in three rounds of voting. The House cannot conduct any business, including swearing in new members, until a speaker is chosen. Tuesday's vote was the first time in a century that the election of a House speaker took multiple ballots to complete. The longest vote in U.S. history took place in 1855, lasting 133 rounds over two months, from December 1855 to February 1856. McCarthy faces a Republican bloc of critics who want changes to the way the House operates. Although he's given in to many of their demands, he remains short of the votes needed. Instead of celebrating their return to the majority on the first day, McCarthy and other GOP leaders were sorting out how to respond to an open rebellion that showcased division and cast doubt on their ability to govern. McCarthy maintains he will not step down and balloting will continue until he can secure the necessary support. "They can go through whoever they want to go through, and they'll come to the conclusion that they don't, they can't get there," McCarthy told reporters outside of the House floor. House members voted Tuesday to adjourn until noon ET on Wednesday, when a fourth vote is expected to take place. Republicans hold the majority in the House now, but it's customary for the minority party to nominate their leader for speaker, and Democratic Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York had more votes than McCarthy in all three voting rounds. Round 1 saw: Jeffries, 212; McCarthy, 203; and 19 votes for other Republicans. In Round 2, the counts for Jeffries and McCarthy stayed the same, however, 19 votes went to Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Jordan. In Round 3, the vote breakdown was similar, but McCarthy lost one Republican — Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida — who voted for Jordan. Jordan spoke in support of McCarthy on the House floor just before the second round began, encouraging his colleagues to vote for him. "The differences we may have ... pale in comparison to us and the left, which now unfortunately controls the other party," Jordan said. "So, we had better come together. ... That's what the people want us to do, and I think Kevin McCarthy is the right guy to lead us, I really do, or else I wouldn't be up here giving this speech."

House adjourns Wednesday without another vote for speaker - The House of Representatives adjourned Wednesday evening without successfully electing a speaker. The continued conflict over the speakership of Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is dragging the lower chamber of Congress into its third straight day of deadlock. The House will reconvene Thursday at noon..  The adjournment vote, which ended at 216-214, was received with chaos, shouting, and ultimately relief as tardy members of the body raced to the floor to cast their votes.  After the House’s sixth vote for speaker failed to reach a majority decision, the body voted to adjourn until 8 p.m. Wednesday. In the intervening hours, journalists on Capitol Hill reported that notable Freedom Caucus-aligned political action committee Club for Growth had agreed to align with a McCarthy-aligned PAC to support McCarthy.  Shortly before the House reconvened Wednesday night, it was reported that House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark, D-Mass., had instructed Democrats to vote against a motion to adjourn. House Democrats have stood united over the last two days of Congressional business, maintaining speakership votes for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Jeffries stands to become House Minority Leader when the speakership is decided — whenever that may be. Without a speaker, the House cannot fully form — swearing in its members, naming its committee chairmen, engaging in floor proceedings and launching investigations of the Biden administration. It was the first time in 100 years the chamber failed to choose a speaker with the first ballot.“Well, it’s Groundhog Day,” said Rep. Kat Cammack, R-Fla., in nominating McCarthy on the sixth ballot.She said, “To all Americans watching right now, we hear you. And we will get through this — no matter how messy.”After the sixth round of voting, the House adjourned until 8 p.m. Wednesday evening.McCarthy received 201 votes on the latest ballot, while Florida Republican Rep. Byron Donalds was nominated as challenger for all three rounds. Donalds collected 20 votes, again spoiling the 218 needed for McCarthy to win the speakership. One GOP member voted present after voting Tuesday for McCarthy.  Democrats stayed united behind caucus leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, with all 212 voicing their support for him in the third vote of the day.

Dems bask in the speaker schadenfreude - -It’s the third day of a leaderless House, and Democrats are in no mood to bail Republicans out. “They’re not desperate enough yet,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is precisely the type of moderate Democrat who would be involved in compromise conversations with the GOP. Eventually, she said she may be open to reaching a deal on a “consensus” candidate, such as when issues such as staff pay or inability to act on national security matters hit a breaking point. But until then: “We’re going to need to sit here and stay united while they figure out who they want to be.” The incoming minority party has stayed totally united behind its leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), through over half a dozen rounds of balloting. It’s so unified, in fact, that the pair of Democrats who missed a Wednesday procedural vote due to off-Hill political meetings apologized to the rest of the caucus during a closed-door meeting Thursday, according to two people familiar with the situation. A handful of Democrats have begun to engage in preliminary conversations with their GOP counterparts about how to end the standoff, including private chats on the floor, phone calls and even late-night meetings. But lawmakers across the caucus agree: It’s far too early for any real talk of a power-sharing agreement to spare the Republicans further embarrassment. Even as some Republicans continue to float — and perhaps threaten — cooperation across the aisle as an option, Democratic leaders have unequivocally declined to engage, even with hypotheticals. They’ve repeatedly pointed to Jeffries’ larger vote total than Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Jeffries noted Thursday it was “time for Republicans to get their act together.” And at the start of the eighth ballot, his deputy, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) repeated Jeffries’ vote count of “212” seven times. Democrats across the board were skeptical that any sort of cross-party power-sharing deal would work — even those that came from state legislatures that were under so-called coalition control, such as Alaska. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), a former state legislator, said she was open to a House with shared power between the parties “if there were a coalition that were workable.” But she acknowledged: “if you’re putting a coalition together with a field of 40 people, that’s much more manageable than 435. And in Alaska, things don’t seem to be nearly so entrenched. Even the staff here is entrenched. It’s not just the elected members with these very hardline philosophies.” During a caucus meeting Thursday morning, no members brought up even the possibility of working with the GOP, according to three people attending. Instead, Democrats were still ready to repeatedly oppose Republican attempts to adjourn the House and said they were prepared to stay in town as long as it took to get a speaker.

Kevin McCarthy loses 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th votes for House speaker - Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Cal., lost five more votes for House speaker on Thursday afternoon as the embarrassment for him and the Republican Party continued.McCarthy had lost a trio of votes on Tuesday and three more on Wednesday, the first time in a century that the process has necessitated more than one ballot. After Thursday's votes, it became the first time since 1859 that it has needed more than nine rounds. House members will continue voting indefinitely until a majority decision is reached.McCarthy had lost ground over the first six rounds of voting, with 19 votes against him growing to 20 and one Republican, Victoria Spartz of Indiana, flipping a pro-McCarthy vote to “present,” further hurting his cause. The results were the same in the seventh through 11th rounds, with 21 GOP members voting against supporting him.During the 10th vote, Punchbowl News reported that a deal between McCarthy and some of his opponents was “close” and that an offer was expected in writing Thursday night.After initially backing Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, as an alternative to McCarthy, those opposing him switched their support Wednesday to Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla. Jordan has supported McCarthy throughout the process, while Donalds flipped his vote from McCarthy to himself. On the eighth ballot, some in the non-McCarthy bloc began voting for Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., who has been pro-McCarthy throughout the process.“If I hear my name, it’s something I’ll have to think and pray about before deciding if it’s a job I’ll run for,” Hern told the Frontier, an Oklahoma outlet, priorto the eighth round. Those opposing McCarthy have said that he is too representative of the status quo in Congress and that there is a need for new leadership. Prior to the ninth vote, Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., formally nominated Hern, saying, “We need a leader that is not of the broken system. Someone who is not beholden to the lobbyists but to the people who sent us here. Someone who can unite our party and, most importantly, someone who can deliver on the promises that we have all made to the American people."

Trump supporters celebrate after Gaetz nominates former president for House speaker: 'Fantastic' | Fox News  -  - Rep.-elect Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., caused a stir on social media after voting for former President Donald Trump to become Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Thursday. A group of about 20 Republicans, including Gaetz, Rep.-elect Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., and others, have voted against McCarthy and labeled him a member of "The Swamp" as the vote for speaker has gone through 11 rounds over three days. Gaetz voted for Trump during the seventh and eighth rounds of voting, then officially nominated him during the eleventh round.The Columbia Bugle, a popular conservative Twitter account, tweeted a picture of then-President Trump hugging an American flag and smiling widely with the hashtag #SpeakerTrump. Paul A. Szypula, a former U.S. Senate candidate and conservative commentator, tweeted, "Rep. Gaetz just voted for Donald John Trump to be Speaker of the House. Trump wears a US flag pin on his jacket. McCarthy wears a Ukraine flag. That says it all." "Imagine this scenario. Donald Trump elected Speaker of the House on January 6. I know it’s not gonna happen. It’s a dream but it would be fantastic," Carmine Sabia, a conservative writer, tweeted. "Who wants President Trump elected Speaker so he can conduct the J6 investigations and expose Nancy Pelosi on the national stage?" Rogan O'Handley, who runs the DC_Draino newsletter asked. Founder of Revolver News and former Trump speechwriter, Darren J. Beattie, said, "Donald Trump as Speaker is the only meaningful outcome to all of this."

House Adjourns Again With No Resolution on Speaker - The New York Times - Kevin McCarthy’s speakership bid failed for an 11th time, after his latest concessions failed to win over enough Republican hard-liners. The chamber has been deadlocked for three days and cannot move on to any other business until a speaker is chosen. Lawmakers will return at noon Friday. Representative Kevin McCarthy of California contorted himself on Thursday to try to win over right-wing holdouts as his battle to become speaker limped toward a fourth day, offering concessions that could substantially weaken his authority and empower a strident right flank. After a humiliating three-day stretch of 11 consecutive defeats in an election that is now the most protracted such contest since 1859, Mr. McCarthy dispatched his emissaries to hammer out a deal with the ultraconservative rebels, including agreeing to conditions he had previously refused to countenance in a last-ditch effort to sway a critical mass of defectors.

Recap: House adjourns as speaker vote stretches past 11th ballot, most since before the Civil War -–The House of Representatives made dubious history Thursday, failing on the 11th ballot to elect a speaker as an acrimonious stalemate that has paralyzed the chamber dragged on. That's the most ballots cast in this normally pro forma election since before the Civil War.The House adjourned Thursday night until noon Friday, hoping to buy more time for negotiations as GOP lawmakers expressed muted optimism that a deal was getting closer with a rebellious Republican faction to install GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy in return for significant concessions."It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish," a relaxed McCarthy told reporters after the adjournment. "If we finish well, we'll be very successful."  McCarthy has now failed in 11 ballots since Tuesday, as a solid core of some 20 Republicans say they will continue to oppose him because he is too much a part of the establishment. A 12th ballot could take place as early as noon Friday."We’re at a Reagan moment — “trust but verify," tweeted Pennsylvania Republican Scott Perry, one of the 20. "The devil is in the details, and we’ll take our time to ensure it’s right, not easy. One way or another, the status quo must go."In the meantime, the House remains without a speaker, leaving members-elect unable to do much beyond voting on McCarthy's fate and answering phones from constituents they can't help yet. They can't form committees, conduct hearings or demand federal agencies answer their requests for assistance. GOP opponents have sunk his attempts to get enough votes to win the job. The efforts to forge a compromise could weaken the job — if he gets it — and show that governing the Republican-led House is going to be challenging this year, with infighting consuming what's been a simple one-ballot vote for the past hundred years.

Burning down the House: The colorful chaos of a speaker-less chamber - Munching on popcorn. Riffing on “Groundhog Day.” Booing loudly, scrolling their phones and strapping on their infants. By the time the battle for speaker ended its second day of stalemate, House members had run the gamut of ways to cope. Lawmakers sat in their chairs for hours, chatting among themselves, as frustration (Republicans) and amusement (Democrats) reined over Kevin McCarthy‘s repeated failure to claim the chamber’s top gavel. “Well, it’s Groundhog Day. Again,” Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) said from the floor as she nominated McCarthy for the top slot Wednesday afternoon — yet again, unsuccessfully. Ayla Jacobs, the niece of Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), is seen on the House floor. Ayla Jacobs, the niece of Rep. Sara Jacobs, is seen on the House floor during the second day of the House speakership election at the U.S. Capitol Jan. 4, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO Encapsulating the chaotic atmosphere on the Hill this week was the aftermath of a Fox News hit that McCarthy backer Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) delivered Wednesday to argue that every day without a speaker undermines Americans’ confidence that Republicans can govern and further divides the party. “If you want to burn down the House, metaphorically, then what is your plan after you do this? I don’t really see a plan B right now,” McCaul said. He then got knocked off his feet, live on TV, while reporters chased McCarthy after the sixth failed speaker vote. On the most visible measure of success, McCarthy’s tally of support was unchanged throughout Wednesday save for Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), a prior McCarthy backer who changed her vote to present. Lawmakers from both parties loudly applauded each time McCarthy and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York cast their votes for themselves. “I’m tired of your stupid platitudes that some consultant told you to say on the campaign trail,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) told reporters about the anti-McCarthy bloc, before getting even more blunt: “Behind closed doors, tell us what you actually want or shut the fuck up. That’s my message.” As the usual pomp and circumstance surrounding Congress’ traditional swearing-in day turned to dismay and circumspection on Tuesday, the signs of weariness began to show. Families of members-elect, many with young children dressed up for ceremonial photos, faded and departed after realizing the speaker election would not wrap up promptly. Lawmakers with young children hung out with their little ones in the cloakroom — while the extended process forced Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) to make the room a changing station. Despite those inconveniences, Democrats generally welcomed the sight of Republicans in disarray after two years of intense focus on their own divisions. Several Democrats tweeted pictures of themselves hauling buckets of popcorn to the floor as the GOP continued to seek a path forward.

Signs of a possible deal emerge in House speaker fight - The Washington Post --For the third day in a row, Republicans were unable to break an ongoing, and now historic, logjam to elect a speaker, even as warnings mounted over the growing consequences of not having a functioning lower chamber of Congress.But in a sign of progress, some Republicans are approaching a deal that could help Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) get closer to clinching the necessary 218 votes to take the gavel. Holdouts appeared to be swayed by the latest offer McCarthy had made to them roughly 24 hours earlier. After hours of negotiations on the floor that led to four repeated failed votes for McCarthy, the impasse seemed to soften — at least for the moment.“I felt good. I felt, I felt very positive yesterday,” McCarthy said as he left the Capitol late Thursday night. “I feel more positive today. I think we had really good discussions. I think it really comes to a really good point.” According to three sources familiar with the deal, several holdouts are on the verge of agreeing to it and will vote in favor for McCarthy, though when that might happen remained unclear. The expectation is that though McCarthy will not get all the votes necessary to become speaker, it will show considerable momentum for him.After “phase one” is completed, “phase two” will begin, as both conservative Republicans and moderates aggressively apply pressure to the holdouts that remain until they can find a pathway for only four to vote against McCarthy — the threshold he needs to get to 218. Through five rounds of voting Thursday — as with the six ballots that took place earlier in the week — McCarthy again failed to gain enough votes to become speaker. The ninth failed vote meant the 118th Congress would surpass the number of votes held a century ago — the last time such a stalemate over the speakership occurred — when it took the House nine ballots to elect a speaker in 1923.   Republicans eventually were able to secure adjournment until Friday, with numerous “Never Kevin” members and other holdouts voting in favor.Despite making concessions to GOP right-wing hardliners, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) continues to struggle get enough votes to become House speaker. (Video: The Washington Post)The stalemate continued despite McCarthy making fresh concessions during late-hour negotiations Wednesday to the 20 GOP lawmakers opposing him, according to four people familiar with the talks who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.In a major allowance to the hard-right Republicans, McCarthy offered to lower from five to one the number of members required to sponsor a resolution to force a vote on ousting the speaker — a change that the California Republican had previously said he would not accept.McCarthy also expressed a willingness to place more members of the staunchly conservative House Freedom Caucus on the Rules Committee, which debates legislation before it is moved to the floor. And he relented on allowing floor votes to institute term limits on members and to enact specific border policy legislation.The proposed rule changes represented a stunning reversal that, if adopted, would weaken the position of speaker and ensure a tenuous hold on the job. However, negotiations were still ongoing as the 11th ballot got underway, and it quickly became apparent that whatever headway had been made Wednesday night and Thursday morning was still being debated.People familiar with the negotiations had anticipated that McCarthy’s concessions could move people going into Thursday morning, but ahead of the first ballot of the day, McCarthy signaled to allies that he knew the votes would not change until a firm deal was reached between the factions, according to two Republicans who, like others in this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid jeopardizing ongoing conversations.After the dueling Republicans factions met with their allies across the Capitol complex Thursday morning, it became apparent that while a deal had not been struck, no group was rejecting McCarthy’s latest proposal either. Getting to yes would require the GOP holdouts and McCarthy allies to negotiate face-to-face behind closed doors right off the House floor, even though that has meant McCarthy losing 11 straight ballots.

GOP debates: Who could take McCarthy's place? - If not Kevin McCarthy, then who? It’s the all-consuming question that has started openly percolating among the House GOP, as McCarthy’s speaker bid stalls. So far, though, Justin Amash — a former congressman who switched from Republican to Independent in 2019 and is considered a gadfly among his former colleagues — is all they’re getting, at least publicly. It’s a sign of the uncharted waters House Republicans are currently navigating as they continue to punt the speaker’s race. “They are not able to choose a speaker right now and I think this can play out in a lot of ways. And it makes sense to be here to offer an option,” said Amash, who roamed the chamber and held court with reporters Wednesday after flying in from Michigan. But the fact that McCarthy’s bid is in such peril that a former Freedom Caucus member-turned-independent felt emboldened to preen about the Capitol on Wednesday, points to the larger political, and mathematical, gymnastics the conference is facing: If not McCarthy, who else could win near-total support of the Republican conference — and actually wants the job? As one GOP member summed up the party’s existential dilemma: “Kevin doesn’t have the votes, but no one has more votes than Kevin.” It’s a question with no clear answer and plenty of opportunity for chaos. While Republicans acknowledge they are privately throwing around names among themselves, there’s a persistent elephant in the room — McCarthy himself — that means they will remain largely hypothetical until the California Republican drops out.

‘We’ll have the votes’: McCarthy appears upbeat as House adjourns --The House Republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, came within striking distance of winning the speakership, in a clear sign of momentum despite losing a 13th consecutive vote on the fourth day of a grinding intra-party showdown. After the contours of a deal began to emerge late on Thursday night, 15 far-right holdouts dropped their opposition and voted for McCarthy on Friday, when the embattled Republican gave his support to a proposal that would undermine his own power while giving the far-right flank more influence over the legislative process, including the ability to more easily remove a speaker.“We made some very good progress,” a freshly confident McCarthy said as he left the floor on Friday afternoon after the House voted to adjourn until later that evening. “We’ll come back tonight. I believe at that time we’ll have the votes to finish this once and for all.” For the first time, McCarthy was the top vote winner, surpassing the Democrats’ choice for speaker, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries of New York, on both the 12th and 13th afternoon ballots. But it was still not enough to cement the top job with the 218 votes traditionally needed to secure the gavel. “You only earn the position of speaker if you get the votes,” said Congressman Matt Gaetz, a holdout who voted for the conservative congressman Jim Jordan on the 13th ballot. McCarthy, he said earlier in the afternoon, “will not have the votes tomorrow and he will not have the votes next week, next month, next year”. Building frustration between the holdouts and the rest of the Republican conference had spilled on to the chamber floor at one point during the votes. As Gaetz assailed McCarthy in a nominating speech for his alternative speaker candidate, Congressman Mike Bost, a Republican of Illinois, angrily interjected. shaking a finger at Gaetz he shouted: “This is not going to bring anyone.” The House clerk banged the gavel, ending the exchange, but several Republicans stormed off the floor in protest as Gaetz finished his remarks. The general mood shifted: Republicans burst into applause with each defection from the rebel camp. McCarthy, who had watched with a forlorn expression as the spectacle of defeat without progress unfolded, was notably more upbeat, smiling and laughing as he listened to the roll call.

What McCarthy has offered his GOP opponents, and what’s under discussion | The Hillthehill.com - Here are the tentative agreements and offers that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has made, and others under discussion, as he aims to woo the 20 Republicans voting against him for Speaker. Thirteen of those 20 Republicans backed McCarthy in Friday’s vote, edging him closer to the Speakership.   Several said their votes were pending negotiations. 

• Motion to vacate: McCarthy has offered to lower the threshold to bring up a move to force a vote on ousting the House Speaker down to just one member, a change from a threshold of five members that was revealed in a House rules package over New Year’s weekend.  That was also lowered from a threshold of half of the House GOP conference that was agreed to in November.
• Floor vote to establish term limits for all House lawmakers: Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who has introduced a term limits bill, said McCarthy made that commitment.
• Floor vote on a border security bill: In a House GOP conference call on Friday, Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) said there will be movement on legislation encompassing a border security plan crafted by Texas Republicans, according to a source.
• Commitment to move bills through regular order: McCarthy has pledged to bring up 12 regular appropriations bills individually and also made commitments on an open amendment process.
• Create subcommittee on “Weaponization of the Federal Government”: Housed under the House Judiciary Committee, the panel is a response to a request from GOP members who have withheld support for McCarthy to form a “Church-style” committee to investigate alleged government abuses, in reference to a 1975 Senate select committee named for former Sen. Frank Church (D-Idaho) that investigated intelligence agencies.
• Require 72 hours from release of final bill text before a vote on the House floor.
• Bring back the Holman rule: A recently released House rules package brings back the Holman rule, which allows members to propose amendments to appropriations bills that cut the salaries of specific federal workers or funding for specific programs down to $1, effectively defunding them.   Some Republicans have suggested using the rule to defund certain investigations and officials in the FBI and Department of Justice or the Department of Homeland Security or officials who were involved in COVID-19 policies.
• Committee membership still under discussion: Hard-line conservatives want increased representation on influential committees, but there is no agreement or promise on that — and McCarthy does not have the sole power to give it, as it is a decision for the House Republican Steering Committee, a group of around 30 members from leadership and elected regional representatives.

Gaetz says he ‘will resign’ if Democrats help elect a moderate Republican for Speaker - Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), one of the main opponents to House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) becoming Speaker, said Thursday that he “will resign” from Congress if Democrats help to elect a moderate Republican Speaker instead.Fox News’s Laura Ingraham asked Gaetz in an interview if he would be alright with an outcome in which there’s “ultimately a deal” struck with moderate Democrats on a consensus candidate in exchange for some kind of co-control of House committees.Gaetz said he is “certain” that the House Democrats will not break ranks and vote for a moderate Republican for Speaker.“I’m on the floor, Laura. These 212 Democrats are going to vote for Hakeem Jeffries every single time. He is a historic candidate for them. They are not going to cleave off under any circumstance. I assure you that if Democrats join up to elect a moderate Republican, I will resign from the House of Representatives,” Gaetz said. “That is how certain I am I can assure your viewers that won’t happen,” he added.Gaetz is one of the 20 holdouts who have blocked McCarthy’s path to the Speakership through three days and 11 ballots since the House began its session on Tuesday.While McCarthy has received support from the vast majority of the Republican conference, those 20 members have denied him the majority of the chamber and thus the Speaker’s gavel.Ingraham noted several concessions McCarthy has made to try to win over support from the holdouts, including agreements to place more members of the House Freedom Caucus, the most hard-line conservative members of the body, onto the House Rules Committee and to allow floor votes on congressional term limits and border security legislation.  Gaetz, however, said he “would not bet” on him casting his vote for McCarthy under “almost any circumstance.” House Republicans were set to have a conference-wide call at 10:15 a.m., after McCarthy’s main allies and detractors met late into the night on Thursday to discuss further possible concessions in the hopes that McCarthy can flip at least some of the group of 20 to support him.

Kevin McCarthy wins House Speaker vote. Now the real struggle begins. - After losing 14 consecutive votes over the course of four mortifying days, California Rep. Kevin McCarthy was elected Speaker of the House early Saturday.Twenty of McCarthy’s fellow Republicans—members of the hardline Freedom Caucus—had held out for a range of concessions from the incoming speaker. They included requests for some interesting aberrations from the norm, and also plenty of nonsense.Before the votes even began on Tuesday, which was supposed to be the first day of Congress, McCarthy had already agreed to a package of rules changes that addressed some pet concerns of the ultraconservative bloc, including a provision that would let any group of five members force a vote on ousting the speaker at any time.By the end of the ordeal, he had caved much further: In a late-Wednesday meeting that ran into Thursday morning, McCarthy agreed to give the Freedom Caucus multiple seats on the powerful Rules Committee (which influences how legislation makes it to the floor), hold a vote on term limits for members, and allow any single member to trigger a vote to overthrow the speaker. Also, a McCarthy-aligned super PAC agreed to, essentially, a non-compete with the more hardline super PAC Club for Growth when it comes to spending in safe Republican districts for future elections. That earned McCarthy the Club’s endorsement for speaker. Even after all of that, the rebel group refused to budge.It was a messy week. To get the 218 votes he needed for a simple majority, McCarthy could spare only four votes from his party—so while 200 or more Republicans voted for McCarthy in each round, the holdouts retained the power to make extreme demands. And as more and more holdouts folded, the remaining holdouts got more extreme. At one point, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz started nominating “Donald John Trump.” (No rule requires the speaker to be a member of Congress, but—come on!)The process took one final twist on Friday night. On the 14th ballot, when McCarthy thought he would win, he fell one vote short—and confronted Gaetz from the center aisle of the House. After patching things up, McCarthy won on the next vote.

McCarthy concessions to win Speakership raise eyebrows - Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was forced to give in to a series of demands from detractors to win the support necessary to win the Speaker’s gavel after a historic week of failed ballots. While most GOP lawmakers are downplaying the significance of McCarthy’s concessions, the changes — which are designed to empower rank-and-file members at the expense of his own leadership authority — are also raising concerns that they could cripple the governing functions of the lower chamber. One change in particular — which empowers a single lawmaker to launch the process of ousting the Speaker — is giving heartburn to lawmakers in both parties, who fear a hard-line group of conservatives will use it repeatedly to browbeat McCarthy into keeping crucial must-pass bills off the floor. The result, they say, will be a heightened risk of shuttering the government, defaulting on federal debts and grinding the business of the House to a screeching halt. “I think it’s a terrible decision,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.). “If one person can push a motion to vacate, we’ll do this again. How would you like to do this every week?” he said, referring to the internal battle that delayed McCarthy’s Speakership victory for days. “I think that’s the future with a few of these individuals. … It weakens the Speaker, and it strengthens the smallest caucus of all the caucuses.” Some of McCarthy’s conservative critics have also demanded that any move to raise the nation’s debt ceiling — which allows the government to borrow money to pay its obligations — must be accompanied by cuts in the nation’s entitlement programs, including Social Security and Medicare. And a provision of the new House rules package requires a separate vote on hiking the debt limit. “It’s safe to say that we believe there ought to be specific, concrete limits on spending attached to a debt ceiling increase,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told reporters in the Capitol on Thursday.“There will be no clean debt ceiling increase, that’s for sure,” echoed Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), another McCarthy opponent who was brought around to support him by the new concessions. That demand has prompted howls from Democrats, who want to protect the nation’s safety net programs and fear the heightened risk of a federal default if McCarthy yields to the conservatives’ wishes. “If they do the debt ceiling, we’re screwed,” a Democratic lawmaker said Friday.

Speaker McCarthy has arrived. Now what?  - The bitter battle to confirm Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as House Speaker is finally over, and the groundwork has been laid for the 118th Congress. But the multiday, historically long process laid bare the divisions and potential issues McCarthy and House Republicans face as they seek to pass legislation, launch investigations and get reelected in two years.So what lies ahead for McCarthy, the GOP and Democrats?  Here are things to watch as Speaker McCarthy takes his seat:

• How much did the Speaker battle weaken McCarthy? The House Freedom Caucus has power for the first time since Democrats won the House in 2018, and the far-right group wasted no time in asserting itself, providing a glimpse of the issues McCarthy will confront as he takes over as the weakest Speaker in recent memory.  The caucus of hard-line conservatives has put McCarthy between a rock and a hard place as he attempts to manage the unruly group and deal with bipartisan legislation that is likely to come over from the Senate — which will have to be cobbled together with 60 votes and will be, by its nature, more moderate. What happens if the Senate sends over a spending deal later this summer that isn’t palatable to the deal McCarthy struck with House conservatives? Will he be willing to shut down the government, which Freedom Caucus members will likely be clamoring for him to do?
• Debt limit, debt limit, debt limit - The looming effort to increase the debt ceiling will likely be the ultimate test of the coming year for the California Republican and will prove consequential in answering how long his tenure will last.This week’s drawn-out adventure to name a Speaker is already causing some in the GOP agita over what’s to come when it’s time later this year to raise the nation’s borrowing limit — an issue that caused the party intense consternation in 2011, when the U.S.’s credit rating was dinged for the first time in history.  “You’re looking at a preview of coming attractions,” The Treasury Department has not yet said when exactly the U.S. will reach the debt limit, but it is expected to be sometime after July, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
• Relationship with McConnell - While McCarthy deals with hard-liners day to day, he will also have another key relationship to manage in the coming months: one with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  The two men and their leadership styles are like oil and water. McConnell, the record-breaking GOP leader, has led his conference with a much firmer hand in recent years, a stark contrast to McCarthy, whose path to success has centered on backslaps and fundraising prowess in lieu of a bedrock political philosophy.  In addition, the two have clashed on a number of items in recent months, ranging from the handling of the 2022 year-end effort to fund the government to how to deal with former President Trump to Ukraine funding.
• Ukraine funding - Funding to help Ukraine in its ongoing battle with Russia is also poised to be an area of contention within the fractured House GOP conference — and among Republicans in both chambers. While the majority of the House GOP conference has expressed support for Ukraine throughout its nearly one-year conflict, a handful of conservative Republicans have expressed opposition to assisting Kyiv as the war drags on.
• Will Democrats rescue McCarthy on must-pass bills? -McCarthy’s concession to make it easier to oust a sitting Speaker has led to concerns on both sides of the aisle that conservatives will hold that threat like a cudgel over McCarthy, deterring him from bringing must-pass legislation — things such as a debt ceiling hike and government funding bills — to the floor even if it has the bipartisan support to pass. Some moderate Republicans have countered that they can still move such bills by teaming up with Democrats on a procedural gambit, known as a discharge petition, that allows a simple majority to force legislation to the floor even over the objections of the Speaker — an idea that Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a co-chairman of the moderate Problem Solvers Caucus, has promoted this week.That scenario poses a dilemma for Democratic leaders, who would be forced to decide whether to bail out McCarthy to prevent episodes such as government shutdowns or to allow them and benefit from the opportunity to highlight the dysfunction and divisions in the Republican ranks.

Biden will send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. And tanks could be next. -    The U.S. and Germany will send infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, the two countries announced on Thursday, decisions that could pave the way for the West to give Ukraine what it really wants — Western tanks. The White House announced that it plans to send Ukraine the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, a tracked armored combat vehicle that carries an auto cannon and a machine gun. Germany, meanwhile, will provide its Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicle. The announcements come a day after France said it will send its AMX-10 RC armored fighting vehicles, a highly mobile, wheeled system built around a powerful turret-mounted GIAT 105mm gun. Berlin will also join the U.S. in donating a U.S.-made Patriot air defense battery, bringing Kyiv’s number of Patriots to two after the White House announced the move last month, according to the Thursday statement. The move to send modern infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine could pave the way to supplying the more powerful Western tanks, something U.S. and European allies have so far been reluctant to do, say experts and two U.S. officials. Those could include Germany’s Leopard tanks or even the U.S. Army’s M1 Abrams, said experts and the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about ongoing discussions. Western tanks — as opposed to less powerful wheeled vehicles with smaller main guns — would be a game-changer for Kyiv, which already operates Soviet-era tanks from its own inventories and others provided after the invasion by European nations. A Leopard or Abrams is more mobile, accurate and has longer range compared with the old Soviet tanks. They are also more effective at protecting troops than the older tanks or even the Western infantry fighting vehicles as Ukraine continues to suffer large losses on the battlefield.

US Sending Delegation To Taiwan For Trade Talks In Move Sure To Anger China The US is sending a delegation to Taiwan next week for trade talks with Taipei, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) said on Wednesday, in a move sure to anger Beijing. The US and Taiwan agreed to hold formal trade talks last year, and the first round was held in New York in November. Since Washington and Taiwan don’t have official relations, the negotiations are being held under the auspice of their respective de facto embassies, the American Institute in Taiwan, and the Taipei Economic Cultural Representative Office in the US. According to The South China Post, Yang Jen-ni, Taiwan’s deputy trade representative, will lead the Taiwanese delegation, which will include dozens of officials from other departments. China is against contact between high-level US and Taiwanese government officials as it views such cooperation as the US moving away from the one-China policy. Beijing is especially opposed to high-level US officials visiting Taiwan and typically reacts by launching military drills around the island. The trade talks are an effort by the US to reduce economic dependence on China, and the overall increase in US contacts with Taiwan is part of the Biden administration’s strategy to counter China’s influence in the region. The USTR has dubbed the trade talks the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and said they are intended to "develop concrete ways to deepen the economic and trade relationship." The USTR said the talks will focus on multiple areas, including "reaching agreements on trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, strong anti-corruption standards, enhancing trade between our small and medium enterprises, deepening agriculture trade, removing discriminatory barriers to trade, digital trade, robust labor and environmental standards, as well as ways to address distortive practices of state-owned enterprises and non-market policies and practices."

Biden aides struggle to respond to Taliban’s latest curbs on women - The Biden administration is grappling with how to respond to new Taliban restrictions on women’s rights in Afghanistan, knowing that punishing the ruling Islamists risks rupturing the limited relationship the United States has with them. The discussion among administration officials is fluid and positions have varied depending on the proposed penalties, a current administration official and a former U.S. official familiar with the talks said. Those proposals include new economic sanctions and tighter bans on Taliban leaders’ travels abroad, as well as limiting certain types of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. But in broad terms, according to the current and former officials, the debate has pitted Tom West, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, against Rina Amiri, the U.S. special envoy for Afghan women, girls and human rights. West is wary of going too far in isolating the Taliban, with whom the U.S. tries to cooperate on counter-terrorism, while Amiri wants to get tougher on them as they try to erase women from public life. While insisting that the Taliban will face consequences, a State Department spokesperson on Thursday downplayed claims of differences between West and Amiri. In the latest deliberations, “Tom and Rina have been of a similar mind” and “in the same camp advocating for similar accountability mechanisms.” The spokesperson, however, would not describe the mechanisms being discussed or how far each official wanted to go. Nearly 18 months after the U.S. military left and the Taliban took charge, Afghanistan’s deepening misery is a growing blight on President Joe Biden’s human rights record. It’s a topic that Republicans, who are taking control of the House, are likely to hammer as they launch investigations into the administration’s handling of Afghanistan. But while Biden has long said that human rights are central to his foreign policy, he has defended his decision to pull U.S. troops from Afghanistan after a 20-year war effort. In the past, Biden has said the U.S. doesn’t bear responsibility for the fate of Afghan women and girls. He has largely avoided talking about the country in recent months, fueling a sense of helplessness among administration staffers grappling with how to respond to the growing crisis.m

 CNN Recruits Washington’s Worst Warmonger The Instant He Leaves Congress – Caitlin Johnstone - CNN has shattered the speed of light in its haste to recruit former representative Adam Kinzinger to its punditry lineup the millisecond he left congress.Kinzinger, who prior to being redistricted out of his House seat received handsome campaign contributions from arms manufacturers Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman, was arguably the most egregious warmonger on Capitol Hill.Nobody in congress lobbied as aggressively to start World War Three as Kinzinger did last year; he tried to advance a bill authorizing hot war against Russia if Moscow crossed specified red lines in Ukraine but couldn’t get cosponsors because even his fellow congressional hawks thought it was too insane. He was the loudest voice in the US government publicly advocating a no-fly zone over Ukraine in the early weeks of the war, an idea that was slammed by the mass media as it would necessarily have entailed the US military shooting down Russian war planes and aggressively tempted nuclear war.Kinzinger was such a demented omnicidal maniac in 2022 that while still in office he became an official member of the empire-backed online troll farm known as “NAFO”, which was founded by an actual neo-Nazi whom Kinzinger openly supported both before and after revelations emerged of the founder’s expressions of hatred for Jews and fondness for Hitler. While still a sitting congressman he was flagging trolls with hashtags inviting them to swarm the social media comments of critics of US foreign policy who opposed his psychopathic warmongering. Before the war in Ukraine Kinzinger was calling for the re-invasion of Afghanistan immediately following the US troop withdrawal and raging about public opposition to “endless war.” Before that he was cheerleading Trump’s assassination of Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani, calling for US interventionism in Venezuela, defending the US-backed war on Yemen, calling for the invasion of Syria, and just generally pushing for more war and militarism at every opportunity. Before that, he was helping the empire kill Iraqis as a member of the US Air Force. So it’s no wonder a warmongering propaganda network snapped him up the instant he became available, ensuring that his warmongering receives as large a platform as possible. As Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp quipped regarding CNN’s hire, “All those calls for WWIII must have landed him this gig.”

Facebook’s hardware ambitions are undercut by its anti-China strategy - — For more than a year, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has made a point of stoking fears about China. He’s told U.S. lawmakers that China “steals” American technology and played up nationalist concerns about threats from Chinese-owned rival TikTok. But now Meta has a growing problem: The social media service wants to transform itself into a powerhouse in hardware, and it makes virtually all of it in China.So the company is racing to get out.That transition has been harder than expected. While hardware giants like Apple have moved some production to places like India and Vietnam in recent years — responding to growing tariffs, former president Donald Trump’s trade war, and rising wages in China — Facebook has hit walls, say three people familiar with the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal conversations.Until recently, the people said, Meta executives viewed the company’s reliance on China to make Oculus virtual reality headsets as a relatively minor concern because the company’s core focus was its social media and messaging apps. All that has changed now that Meta has rebranded itself as a hardware company, the people said. Beyond last year’s name change from Facebook to Meta, the company has undertaken a broad internal reorganization, launched augmented-reality smart glasses, and is building a connected device that could be worn on a person’s wrist. In October, the company introduced Meta Quest Pro, the first in a new line of headsets built for collaboration. Internal concerns about the hardware push intensified last year, when some executives worried that the anti-China strategy — crafted by executives in Washington and Menlo Park during the latter years of President Donald Trump’s administration — would hurt its business ambitions and be viewed by the public and regulators as hypocritical, given the company’s growing reliance on China for its plans.

I’m Sorry, but This COVID Policy Is Ridiculous. The China Travel Restriction Has Nothing to Do With COVID Spread - - Cases have surged in China since it dropped its zero-COVID policy in December, and the latest models now suggest that at least 1 million people may die as a result. Many countries have responded by policing their borders: Last week, the CDC announced that anyone entering the United States from China would be required to test negative within two days of departure; the U.K., Canada, and Australia quickly followed suit; and the European Union has urged its member states to do the same. (Taking a more extreme tack, Morocco has said it will ban travelers from China from entering altogether.) At a media briefing on Wednesday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “It is understandable that some countries are taking steps they believe will protect their own citizens.”On Tuesday, a Chinese official denounced some of the new restrictions as having “no scientific basis.” She wasn’t wrong. If the goal is to “slow the spread of COVID” from overseas, as the CDC has stated, there is little evidence to suggest that the restrictions will be effective. More important, it wouldn’t matter if they were: COVID is already spreading unchecked in the U.S. and many of the other countries that have new rules in place, so imported cases wouldn’t make much of a difference. The risk is particularly low given the fact that 95 percent of China’s locally acquired cases are being caused by two Omicron lineages—BA.5.2 and BF.7—that are old news elsewhere. “The most dangerous new variant at the moment is from New York—XBB.1.5—which the U.S. is now busy exporting to the rest of the world,” Christina Pagel, a mathematician who studies health care at University College London, told me. “I’m sorry, but this is fucking ridiculous.”

Biden “Vax-Only” Strategy of Mass Infection Lies in Ruins, Destroyed by Vaccine Escape, Immune Dysregulation Lambert Strether - As is well known, the Biden Administration has pursued a “Vax-only” policy from its first days in office (augmented, to be fair, with various over-hyped yet profitable pharmaceutical treatments of less-than-stellar effectiveness; remdesivir, paxlovid). The hallmark of Administration policy has been a thorough-going rejection of a layered strategy (“Swiss Cheese Model“) that would mandate non-pharmaceutical interventions to decrease airborne transmission, whether through recommendations (“3C’s“), ventilation, or masking. (Such is the Democrat commitment to the bit that Acela Corridor media figures are now coming forward to stigmatize mask-wearers, making them objects of derision and hatred; see the New York Times and The New Yorker.) In practice, the Biden Administration has pursued a policy of mass infection, since the vaccines we have now are not sterilizing, and eliminate neither transmission nor reinfection.The Biden Administration’s Covid policy of mass infection has so far — I will assert for the purposes of this post — been cost-free politically, for a number of reasons: Business support, an incoherent Republican response, denial of airborne transmission by powerful institutional forces in healthcare and academia, a shift in focus from shared responsibility for public health to “personal risk assessment” (engineered by the public health establishment, ironically enough), and destruction of data gathering, but above all through a Goebbels-level propaganda campaign, waged by all components of the Democratic party apparatus and its self-embubbling (hegemonic) PMC class base in favor of “Vaxed and done.” (To be fair, “convenience” and “living your life” are not hard sells for Americans, our culture being what it is. Nor is working through illness. Nor, in least in some strata of society, is a fandom for well-credentialed and highly-placed figures). However, time may be running out.The Biden Administration’s Covid policy of mass infection has always been vulnerable to facts on the ground. Another surge equivalent to January 2022’s Omicron surge would do it in; so would “something awful” in the form of vascular or neurological (epithelial) damage of an undeniable scale. (Long Covid doesn’t seem to be awful enough, sadly; but that could change, given a solid mechanism and possibly a few celebrities to help with the narrative.) In this post, I’ll first present the case for vaccine escape from recent variants, and then the case for immune dysregulation as a sequel to acute covid. In terms of facts on the ground, the first would create a surge; the second, “something awful.” In either case, even the most coughing, exhausted, several-times-injected, “I’ve got a cold I can’t shake” vaccine militant might be gently led to the conclusion that the Biden Administration’s policy of mass infection has failed[1], and we must try something else. I started meditating this post when I saw the following article in Cell: “Alarming antibody evasion properties of rising SARS-CoV-2 BQ and XBB subvariants“; “Alarming” is not typically a word that one sees in article titles for professional journals. (I think it translates to “hair on fire”?). From the Abstract (and I’ve gone a little overboard with the formatting just to make the point: The BQ and XBB subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron are now rapidly expanding[2], possibly due to altered antibody evasion properties deriving from their additional spike mutations. Here, we report that neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired including sera from individuals boosted with a WA1/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine. Titers against BQ and XBB subvariants were lower by 13- to 81-fold and 66- to 155-fold, respectively, far beyond what had been observed to date. Monoclonal antibodies capable of neutralizing the original Omicron variant were largely inactive against these new subvariants, and the responsible individual spike mutations were identified. These subvariants were found to have similar ACE2-binding affinities as their predecessors. Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies. For whatever reason — charitably, the December 13, 2022 publication date, too close to the holiday season — this peer-reviewed study from a top-drawer medical journal has gotten virtually no play in the press. GM advises us to look at Figure S3, so — even though I feel I’m juggling power tools — here it is (the highlighting is mine. This is an “antigenic map.” The caption explains why the axes are not labeled).

Kamala Harris is demanding a negative COVID test if newly-elected senators want a photo taken with her during swearing-in ceremony on January 3 - Senators and family members who attend the swearing-in photo-op ceremonies with Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday are being told they must test negative for COVID prior to joining the event. Harris, who represented California in the Senate before being sworn in as VP in 2021, will carry on the tradition of re-enacting the events inside the Old Senate Chamber on Capitol Hill. But to get up close with Harris, who presides over the Senate as vice president, new senators and family members will have to score a negative on a 'medically-administered antigen test.' That policy is similar to the one the White House imposes on guests who meet with President Joe Biden at the White House. The ceremony, which will air on C-SPAN, is set to be one of the celebratory events that will punctuate Tuesday – alongside the political drama in the House, where Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is struggling to cobble together the 218 votes required to become speaker. Vice President Kamala Harris is set to stage ceremonial swearing-in ceremonies for new senators and their families – provided they can pass a rapid coronavirus test. She swore in a trio of senators, including her own replacement, two years ago 'The Vice President's office has requested that we send their standard COVID-19 protocol information to offices participating in the reenactment opportunity in the Old Senate Chamber. Please see their suggested process below,' according to an email from the Senate Sergeant at Arms Protocol Office that was obtained by Breitbart News. 'We look forward to welcoming all Senators and their families for the reenactment opportunity on January 3rd.' Sources told the publication some senators are 'so upset' that they might not participate, although none have been quoted by name saying they'll skip.

The Case for Wearing Masks Forever – Last December, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that it was shortening the recommended isolation period for those with covid-19 to five days. Getting exposed to the virus no longer meant that people needed to quarantine, either, as long as they were fully vaccinated and wore a mask. It was a big moment, and it occurred just as the Omicron variant was surging. Mindy Thompson Fullilove, a professor of urban policy and health at the New School, was livid. Fullilove, who is Black, has spent her career studying epidemics: first aids, then crack, then multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. She has seen how disease can ravage cities, especially in Black and working-class communities. From the beginning, Fullilove was skeptical of how the federal government handled the coronavirus pandemic. But these new recommendations from the C.D.C., she said, were “flying in the face of the science.” Not long after the announcement, she sent an e-mail to a Listserv called The Spirit of 1848, for progressive public-health practitioners. “Can we have a people’s CDC and give people good advice?” she asked. A flurry of responses came back. What emerged was the People’s C.D.C.: a ragtag coalition of academics, doctors, activists, and artists who believe that the government has left them to fend for themselves against covid-19. As governments, schools, and businesses have scaled back their covid precautions, the members of the People’s C.D.C. have made it their mission to distribute information about the pandemic—what they see as real information, as opposed to what’s circulated by the actual C.D.C. They believe the C.D.C.’s data and guidelines have been distorted by powerful forces with vested interests in keeping people at work and keeping anxieties about the pandemic down. “The public has a right to a sound reading of the data that’s not influenced by politics and big business,” Fullilove said.No one is in charge of the People’s C.D.C., and no one’s expertise is valued more than anyone else’s. The problems of “the pandemic and its response are rooted in hierarchical organizations,” Mary Jirmanus Saba, a filmmaker and one of the volunteers, told me. Roughly forty people come to each weekly meeting, but many more are involved. (This spring, after a few of the group’s organizers published a manifesto of sorts in the Guardian, several thousand interested people reached out, Fullilove said.) The group sends out a weekly Weather Report—put together by a team composed, in part, of doctors and epidemiologists—summarizing data about transmission rates, new variants, and death rates. They’ve published explainers on testing, masks, and ventilation, among other topics, typically with a call to action: call the White House, call your congressperson, demand free tests and treatment for all. On their Web site, they recently posted a guide for safer gatherings, which recommends that all events be held outdoors with universal, high-grade masking. The organization has nearly twenty thousand followers on Instagram, and it prides itself as a resource for various groups, including people who are immunocompromised and want to find a way to protect themselves and activists who are trying to lobby their local government for more covid restrictions. Although the group has been scathing in its critiques of the C.D.C., it has received support from respected institutions in the public-health world. It has also received blue-chip funding from organizations such as the Kresge Foundation, which focusses on expanding opportunities in American cities, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, one of the most influential health-focussed philanthropies in America, which gave the group a hundred and fifty thousand dollars. As it happens, Robert Wood Johnson’s C.E.O., Richard E. Besser, is a former acting director of the C.D.C,

 15 Million Americans Set To Lose Medical Coverage As Public Health Emergency Ends - America is facing a health crisis and it isn’t made up of bacteria or viruses—instead, it’s an impending medical insurance meltdown. There is an expectation that as of Jan. 11, 2023, an estimated 15 million Americans will begin to lose health coverage. The reason is that after three years of a COVID-19 public health emergency, the shield of continuous coverage offered by Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) will end. Once the state of emergency expires, regular income requirements and restrictions will apply. This will disqualify millions who’ve benefited from congressional legislation passed in 2020 preventing disenrollment for the duration of the COVID pandemic. Health care administrators are already bracing for the fallout as the end looms large. The administration of President Joe Biden has set a tentative termination date for Jan. 11, though many analysts believe it will be extended. That’s because White House officials promised a 60-day notice before making it official. Even with an extension, it’s only delaying the inevitable, according to industry insiders. An avalanche of newly uninsured Americans will still tumble into the national health care system. An estimated 15 million adults and children will be unenrolled once the health emergency ends, according to an analysis from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning Evaluation. Within that group, 8.2 million will no longer be eligible for Medicaid. Another 5.3 million children also won’t qualify for CHIP. Barely a third of those in line to be ejected into the insurance marketplace will qualify for tax credits or other programs. That will leave millions in limbo, scrambling to find affordable insurance. With such a high volume of newly uninsured patients, some analysts predict cost increases for doctor visits, especially in the emergency room. Coverage Too Expensive Others say it will contribute to America’s spiraling mental health crisis, which currently affects more than 50 million people.

Biden announces new program to curb illegal migration as he prepares for visit to border -   In a rare White House address on the nation’s southern border crisis, President Joe Biden on Thursday unveiled new policy that will accept 30,000 migrants a month from four nations but also will crack down on those who fail to use the plan’s legal pathways. Speaking in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, the president said the policy will grant humanitarian “parole” to eligible migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. It will work as part of a border strategy that incorporates an expanded use of Title 42 expulsions. “Do not just show up at the border. Stay where you are and apply legally from there,” Biden said, addressing potential migrants from those nations. “Starting today, if you don’t apply through the legal process you will not be eligible for this new parole program.” The announcement was made as the Departments of Homeland Security and Justice released details of a plan to impose a new regulation — a version of a Trump-era policy often called the “transit ban.” Under the new rule, migrants would be prohibited from applying for asylum in the United States unless they were first turned away for safe harbor by another country. It would also deem ineligible migrants who don’t go through authorized ports of entry. DHS and DOJ will hear public comment on the proposed regulation before it goes into effect. Biden said the new details announced Thursday “won’t fix our entire immigration system but they can help us a good deal in better managing what is a difficult challenge.” He added: “Until Congress passes the funds, a comprehensive immigration plan to fix the system completely, my administration is going to work to make things at the border better using the tools that we have.” The president also confirmed plans for his first visit to the U.S.-Mexico border since taking office. Biden said he will visit El Paso, Texas, on Sunday to “assess border enforcement operations” and “meet with local officials.” The visit comes ahead of his trip to Mexico City for the “Three Amigos” summit with his Canadian and Mexican counterparts. The moves reflect the Biden administration’s latest venture to combat a migration surge straining the U.S. immigration system. They also come as the president faces growing criticism from both Republicans and Democrats on border issues. The topic has intensified for the Biden administration in recent weeks as officials prepared for a court-ordered end to Title 42 limits, only to see the Supreme Court temporarily block lifting the policy. But regardless of the Trump-era policy’s fate — set to be decided by the high court later this year — the southern border is facing a record-breaking migration influx likely to remain a key policy issue throughout Biden’s presidency.

'Do not just show up at the border': Biden unveils new migrant policy – POLITICO - video

Senate Democrats pan Biden border plan - Four Senate Democrats on Thursday were sharply critical of the Biden administration’s plan to trade off a border crackdown for 30,000 immigration permits. Biden administration officials on Thursday said they would use Title 42 — a Trump-era policy that allows border officials to quickly expel migrants without screening them for asylum — in order to expel migrants who present at the border, while allowing others to fly into the United States. Democratic Sens. Bob Menéndez (N.J.), Cory Booker (N.J.), Ben Ray Luján (N.M.) and Alex Padilla (Calif.) put out a joint statement hours after President Biden announced his plan at the White House. “While we understand the challenges the nation is facing at the Southern border exacerbated by Republican obstruction to modernizing our immigration system, we are deeply disappointed by the Biden Administration’s decision to expand the use of Title 42,” wrote the four senators. The Biden plan’s stated purpose is to reduce the number of migrants setting off from their home countries on foot, a goal administration officials say is realistic with the new plan based on a pilot program launched in October. But the four senators, all of whom have vocally defended the current asylum system, said the extension of Title 42 is more likely to backfire. “Continuing to use this failed and inhumane Trump-era policy put in place to address a public health crisis will do nothing to restore the rule of law at the border. Instead, it will increase border crossings over time and further enrich human smuggling networks,” they wrote. The senators did celebrate the Biden administration’s intention to grant entry to 30,000 Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans and Haitians each month, but said that “narrow benefit” would not outweigh the plan’s harms. And the lawmakers took aim at one of the Biden administration’s most tenuous claims in its new policy: that the requirement for migrants to apply for asylum from their current location does not equate to a so-called transit ban. “We are also concerned about the Administration’s new transit ban regulation that will disregard our obligations under international law by banning families from seeking asylum at the border, likely separating families and stranding migrants fleeing persecution and torture in countries unable to protect them,” wrote the senators. Administration officials flat out denied that the policy is a transit ban — sometimes referred to during the Trump administration as a “safe third country agreement” — on a call with reporters Thursday. “I want to make clear that this is not a transit ban. You know, the previous administration’s transit ban did not provide any mechanisms for individuals to come to ports of entry to make asylum claims, it was not coupled with any expansion of lawful processes for entering the United States without making the dangerous journey to the border,” said a senior administration official. Still, few immigrant advocates agreed with the administration’s interpretation of what makes a transit ban, and many joined the Democratic senators in their criticism of the use of Title 42. “Continuing to rely on, and expand, Stephen Miller’s Title 42 and proposing expanding an asylum ban advances chaotic and ineffective policy while trampling on some of our proudest traditions as a welcoming nation. We should be finding ways to fix and fully resource our asylum process, not devising ways to prevent people seeking safety from accessing the asylum process under our laws,” said Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, a progressive immigration advocacy group.

Hispanic Caucus split between rage and lukewarm reception to Biden’s new border plan | The The Biden administration’s plan to crack down at the border in exchange for some expanded legal pathways of entry for migrants received a generally tepid response from Hispanic Democrats, though some in the group were incensed that they were sidelined in favor of developing a policy many worry treads too closely to Trump-era immigration efforts. The Biden administration announced Thursday it would expand Title 42 limitations that allow them to turn away asylum-seekers, pairing it with a pledge to allow some 30,000 Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans and Haitians into the U.S. through a separate program. Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.), in her first major statement as chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC), praised the administration’s expanded legal pathways but expressed disappointment with the Title 42 expansion at the border. “As a nation of immigrants, we must have a humane, efficient, and professional immigration system that reflects our American values,” Barragán said. “The Congressional Hispanic Caucus welcomes the Administration’s efforts to expand legal pathways for refugees and asylum seekers but is disappointed with the expansion of the failed Trump-era Title 42 policy that has denied asylum seekers their rights to due process for far too long.” Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), a former CHC chair, released his own statement later Friday, issuing a strongly worded condemnation of the administration’s plans that contrasted with the careful balance adopted by Barragán. “I am deeply disappointed to see the Biden administration extending failed Trump-era immigration policies that exacerbate chaos and irregular migration at the Southern border,” Castro said. Castro said he “appreciates” the administration’s expanded legal pathway, but panned the transit ban and parole requirements “willfully dismissive of the realities facing asylum seekers.” “Instead of making concessions to the same reactionaries who have spent decades opposing immigration reform, the Biden administration should work with Congress to develop smart immigration policy that meets our nation’s economic needs, upholds our fundamental values, and addresses the root causes of migration,” said Castro. And the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) weighed in after a call on the policy with Mayorkas. CPC Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and CPC Immigration Task Force Chairman Jesús García (D-Ill.) — also a CHC member — put out their own statement, taking a more forceful tone than Barragán, but less combative than Castro. Jayapal and García called on President Biden to “reconsider this proposal” though they lauded its expanded legal pathways. “However, the new Department of Homeland Security proposal also includes expanding the use of Title 42, a public health law weaponized by Donald Trump to deny legal rights to asylum seekers, as well as potential regulations that would restrict the legal right to seek asylum. That is unacceptable,” Jayapal and García wrote. Barragán’s statement came a day after CHC members met with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in the Capitol for what turned into a heated briefing on the new policy. At the meeting, two CHC members, Sens. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), grilled Mayorkas, pushing the secretary to say why they weren’t consulted during the planning process of the new policy. Menendez, in particular, was “pretty lit” as he tore into Mayorkas, according to several people in the room, and Luján “let him have it” over the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) failure to include CHC input in planning. Menendez went so far as to quote a Biden campaign pledge to Mayorkas, when the then-Democratic nominee ripped then-President Trump over his “safe third country agreements” proposal. The new Biden immigration proposal mimics the Trump push in that it penalizes migrants who transit away from their current location by making them ineligible to claim asylum. Representatives for Mayorkas did not respond to a question Friday on why the administration did not consult its allies in Congress. One CHC member complained the new policy “breathes new life” into Title 42. “People are upset that a Democratic administration would expand the policy that Stephen Miller put in place under Donald Trump. There are some good things about what’s being proposed: allowing people to apply for asylum if they have a sponsor, and providing work permits. But there’s a big downside to it, which is the expansion of Title 42. Title 42 is supposed to be wound down and this seems to breathe new life into it,” the member said.

Bipartisan group of 8 senators to visit border after Biden's first visit to tackle 'Washington's failure' - A bipartisan group of U.S. senators will tour the southern border next week, just after President Biden will visit Texas, amid calls for congressional action to solve the migrant crisis following a two-year stalemate in Washington. Sens. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., and John Cornyn, R-Texas, will lead the delegation to both Texas and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday to see the ongoing situation at the border, where officials and frontline agents have been dealing with a historic crisis for two years. Also on the trip will be Sens. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., Thom Tillis, R-N.C., James Lankford R-Okla., Chris Coons, D-Del., Jerry Moran, R-Kansas, and Chris Murphy, D-Conn. According to a release, they will travel to El Paso, Texas, which Biden will also visit on his trip to the border on Sunday. The senators will also visit Yuma, Arizona, where they will meet with Border Patrol agents and hear from local law enforcement and community leaders, as well as representatives of non-profits. There were more than 1.7 million migrant encounters in FY 2021 and over 2.3 million in FY22. So far, the first two months of FY 2023 have outpaced the first two months of the prior fiscal year, suggesting that the crisis at the border is only deepening in President Biden's third year in office. President Biden unveiled a number of border security measures, including an expansion of Title 42 expulsions to include a limited number of Haitians, Nicaraguans and Cubans and expanded parole programs for those nationalities, in a speech on Thursday in which he also confirmed that he will visit Texas on Sunday. But the senators said in their statements that they recognized the need for congressional action that has been lacking in recent years. "Arizona border communities shoulder the burden of Washington’s failure to solve our border and immigration crisis," Sinema said in a statement. "I’m glad to lead a bipartisan group of my colleagues to visit the Southwest Border and I appreciate their commitment to learning and understanding the many diverse challenges facing our border communities. I believe by working together we can bridge divides, help find lasting solutions, and start solving the crisis at our border."

Biden confronts his border problem  -President Biden on Sunday will make his first trip to the southern border since taking office, confronting the issue of immigration head on as it threatens to become a growing problem for him and his administration. Biden had resisted making the trip despite months of pressure from Republicans and even some Democrats to do more to address the influx of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. His travel to El Paso underscores the humanitarian and political problems the situation poses for the Biden administration as it deals with a House GOP majority intent on highlighting the border crisis and a looming 2024 campaign where the Republican nominee is likely to elevate immigration. “It’s clear that immigration is a political issue that extreme Republicans are always going to run on,” Biden said Thursday at the White House. “But now they have a choice: They can keep using immigration to try to score political points or they can help solve the problem. They can help solve the problem and come together to fix the broken system.” The White House this week unveiled a raft of measures aimed at getting the number of migrants crossing into the U.S. under control, while also using Biden’s upcoming travel to show they are taking the matter seriously. The administration said Thursday that individuals from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Haiti would be blocked from applying for asylum if they crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without authorization. Officials also said they would propose a rule prohibiting migrants from applying for asylum in the U.S. if they did not first seek protection in a country they traveled through en route to the southern border. And border officials will continue to enforce Title 42, a Trump-era policy that has been used for nearly three years to quickly expel migrants under the guise of it being a public health measure. Immigration advocates have criticized Biden’s continued use of the policy as inhumane, viewing it as a migration tool disguised as a public health measure. The Supreme Court is set to review its legality in the coming months. Biden himself will visit the border on Sunday during a trip to El Paso. He will meet with front-line officials to hear more about the migrant situation, as well as what more can be done to block the flow of fentanyl and other drugs across the border.

DeSantis activates National Guard in response to hundreds of migrants arriving in Florida Keys - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has activated the state National Guard to provide support to local officials in response to the arrival of hundreds of migrants in the Florida Keys. He signed an executive order on Friday to mobilize the Guard and direct Florida law enforcement agencies and other agencies to supply resources to local governments as they respond to the migrant landings. “As the negative impacts of [President] Biden’s lawless immigration policies continue unabated, the burden of the Biden administration’s failure falls on local law enforcement who lack the resources to deal with the crisis,” DeSantis said in a release. “That is why I am activating the National Guard and directing state resources to help alleviate the strain on local resources. When Biden continues to ignore his legal responsibilities, we will step in to support our communities,” he continued. The move comes nearly a week after local officials reported that at least 500 migrants arrived in the Florida Keys over New Year’s weekend. Roughly 300 of that number landed on islands within Dry Tortugas National Park, prompting its temporary closure. DeSantis’s office said in the release announcing the executive order that law enforcement has encountered more than 8,000 migrants off the Florida coast since August. The release states that it has been “particularly burdensome” for the sheriff’s office in Monroe County, which is located in the Florida Keys, to provide the necessary resources to manage the hundreds of newly arrived migrants and ensure public safety. The state will deploy airplanes and helicopters from the Florida National Guard and reinforce marine patrols from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission to support efforts to intercept the migrants and ensure their safety. The release states that Florida has a “long history” of helping refugees, particularly Cubans and others fleeing communist regimes, find assistance in the United States but that it has always included support from the federal government.

Biden rolls out new rules. Courts may torpedo them. - In the last days of 2022, EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers issued a brand-new water protection rule, one of the first of a new raft of Biden-era regulations that are expected to face a tough slog in the conservative-dominated courts in 2023 and beyond.The Biden administration’s definition of what constitutes a “water of the United States,” or WOTUS, comes as the Supreme Court is considering a case that has the potential to narrow the category of wetlands and streams that are subject to Clean Water Act permitting requirements (Greenwire, Jan. 4).Many other regulations will be subject to litigation that could eventually make its way to a high court that has in recent months demonstrated increased skepticism of federal regulation.“This is a new conservative court,” said Peter Hsiao, a partner at the firm King & Spalding, “That is, a court in which the conservative wing now has a majority to continue to address the growth of the administrative state.”Last term, the Supreme Court took one of its biggest swings against federal regulatory power in June in West Virginia v. EPA, a case that struck down the Obama administration’s power plant emissions rule for violating the “major questions” doctrine. The theory says that Congress must clearly state if it wants agencies to act on matters of “vast economic and political significance.” Legal observers note that the Biden administration will release its rules under the watch of a Supreme Court that is willing to step in before agencies have completed their regulations. In the case of the WOTUS rule, the Supreme Court took the unusual step of granting the Sackett v. EPA case over the objections of the Biden administration, which had urged the justices to wait for the new regulation before jumping into the fray (Greenwire, June 13, 2022).EPA and the Army Corps released the new WOTUS definition on Dec. 30. The Sackett ruling is expected by summer.The court took similar action in West Virginia, which scrapped an Obama-era rule that had never taken effect — despite the Biden administration’s plans to replace it. EPA has yet to deliver the rewrite.

Biden taps Democrat on interstate energy commission as its interim chair - President Biden will name Willie Phillips as interim head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the White House confirmed Tuesday. The agency confirmed Phillips, a member of the commission since Dec. 21, will replace Chairman Richard Glick, who left his post Tuesday. Phillips, whose term as a commissioner expires in 2026, will serve as acting head of the utility agency until a permanent replacement is found. Biden nominated Glick for another term in May, but In November, Senate Energy Committee Chairman Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he would not support Glick’s renomination as FERC chairman, with a spokesperson saying the West Virginia Democrat was “not comfortable holding a hearing” to give Glick another term. FERC regulates interstate energy issues, including oil and gas pipelines. While Manchin did not elaborate on his opposition to Glick’s renomination, it came shortly after he had vocally opposed a move by FERC to incorporate pipelines’ contributions to climate change into the approval process. Glick’s departure gives the commission an even split of two Republicans and two Democrats. Regulations bar the board from having a majority of more than one on either side. Phillips was confirmed to FERC by the Senate in a voice vote, which typically indicates lack of controversy, but his record as a utility regulator has been criticized by environmentalists, who have called him overly friendly with utility companies.

Democrats worry over potential of retirements in Senate - Senate Democrats’ hopes of keeping their majority after the next election is complicated by a potential wave of retirements in key battleground and Republican-leaning states. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), a member of the Democratic leadership, announced on Thursday that she won’t run again, and all eyes are on Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who haven’t announced their plans. Their two seats in reliably Republican presidential states would be particularly difficult to hold on to for Democrats. “This shapes up to be a very difficult cycle for Democrats anyway and this is just another blow to the chances of keeping the Senate when you lose an incumbent,” Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist and former advisor to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said of Stabenow’s plan to retire. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), who left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, also has not announced her plans. Neither has Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), though she is widely expected to run for re-election. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is running for reelection, which could help Democrats in that race. All three represent states where Republicans will like their chances in 2024. Overall, Senate Democrats need to defend 23 seats in 2024, compared to just 10 for Republicans. All of the GOP incumbents are running in reliably Republican states. Mike Berg, the director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, says Republicans will “aggressively target” the open Michigan Senate seat, which will force Democrats to play defense in an expensive state. “Senate Democrats don’t even have a campaign chair yet and they are already dealing with a major retirement,” Berg said, referring to the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee leadership. “We are going to aggressively target this seat in 2024. This could be the first of many Senate Democrats who decide to retire rather than lose.” Stabenow is 72 years old but her decision to retire surprised strategists because she is one of Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) closest allies in the Senate Democratic conference and chairs the powerful Agriculture Committee, which is a big selling point in Michigan. “It certainly will be competitive,” Matt Grossman, a professor of political science at Michigan State University, said of the race in Michigan. “We’re a swing state and an open Senate race inherently will be competitive in a swing state.”

Republicans Are Primed to Take on ‘Woke Capitalism’ in 2023, with Climate Disclosure Rules for Corporations in Their Sights -  It has only been a decade since climate activists launched campaigns to get financial institutions and money managers to see that dollars pumped into the fossil fuel industry were a risk to both the planet and investor portfolios. That effort has had some success but remains a work in progress. All of Wall Street now talks about environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles in investing, and that’s a problem. Claims of a commitment to that philosophy are ubiquitous among corporations and investment funds, and investors are left to figure out which declarations amount to mere greenwashing. Only within the last year have government watchdogs moved to set standards on what companies must disclose about climate risks.Before those rules are set, Republicans have decided the time is right for an anti-ESG backlash. In 2023, they are preparing on multiple fronts to take on Wall Street, corporate America and U.S. financial regulators for, in their view, paying too much attention to environmental concerns and not enough to making money.It’s “woke capitalism,” in the words of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely seen as a possible challenger to former President Donald Trump for leadership of the Republican Party. DeSantis’ administration announced last month that it was pulling out all Florida State Treasury funds—some $2 billion—that were invested with BlackRock, the Wall Street firm that has become most closely associated with ESG.“We are reasserting the authority of republican governance over corporate dominance and we are prioritizing the financial security of the people of Florida over whimsical notions of a utopian tomorrow,” DeSantis said when he began his anti-ESG campaign last August. And Republicans are preparing to make much more noise about ESG, using the new platforms that they gained in the 2022 midterm elections:

• With Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, the congressman expected to head the Committee on Financial Services, Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, plans close oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and its proposed climate-risk disclosure rules, which he sees as part of a “far-left social agenda.”
• Red-state attorneys general have signaled their readiness to go to court to challenge both the SEC and corporate and Wall Street ESG policies. Notably, they suggested in a letter to BlackRock last year that its activities with net-zero emissions groups raised antitrust concerns.
• The American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, an association of state legislators that gets most of its funding from corporate sources and right-leaning foundations, is pushing for laws barring state pension funds from considering social and environmental factors in their investment decisions.

Republicans may not be able to turn back the ESG movement, which has taken such a firm hold that 90 percent of companies say they either have or are developing a formal strategy to manage corporate environmental, social and governance practices, according to the mutual fund research firm Morningstar. But the politicization of ESG could make it something like school textbooks, mask-wearing and Covid vaccines. Where investors stand on the nation’s political divide—and to a large extent, what state they live in—could determine whether their savings are exposed to the risks of climate change or the opportunities of the clean energy transition.

BlackRock, Citigroup among firms named fossil fuel boycotters by Kentucky - Kentucky State Treasurer Allison Ball published a list of 11 financial companies, including several major Wall Street banks, that she deems to be hostile to the fossil fuel industry. BlackRock, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase were among the companies named in the list published Tuesday, which was compiled in accordance with a state law. The legislation, which resembles actions taken by Republican-led states including West Virginia and Texas, will require state entities to divest from the blacklisted firms, with certain exceptions.

Ex Capitol Police chief says government failed to heed clear signs of violent plot targeting Capitol, or to quickly mobilize Jan 6 to save lives - In a new firsthand account of the frantic efforts of Capitol Police officers to protect Congress and themselves from an armed mob on Jan. 6, 2021, the department’s former chief blames cascading government failures for allowing the brutal melee. The federal government’s multibillion-dollar security network, built after 9/11 to gather intelligence that could warn of a looming attack, provided no such shield on Jan. 6, former Capitol Police chief Steven A. Sund writes in a new book. The FBI, the Department of Homeland Security and even his own agency’s intelligence unit had been alerted weeks earlier to reams of chilling chatter about right-wing extremists arming for an attack on the Capitol that day, Sund says, but didn’t take the basic steps to assess those plots or sound an alarm. Senior military leaders, citing political or tactical worries, delayed sending help. And, Sund warns in “Courage Under Fire,” it could easily happen again. Many of the factors that left the Capitol vulnerable remain unfixed, he said. The Washington Post obtained an advance copy of the book, which will be published Jan. 3. In his account, Sund describes his shock at the battle that unfolded as an estimated 10,000 protesters inflamed by President Donald Trump’s rally earlier in the day broke through police lines and punched, stabbed and pepper-sprayed officers, outnumbering them “58 to 1.” Sund said his shock shifted to agony as he unsuccessfully begged military generals for National Guard reinforcements. Though they delayed sending help until it was too late for Sund’s overrun corps, he says that he later discovered that the Pentagon had rushed to send security teams to protect military officials’ homes in Washington, none of which were under attack. Sund reserves his greatest outrage for those Pentagon leaders, recounting a conference call he had with two generals about 2:35 p.m., 20 minutes after rioters had broken into the Capitol and as Vice President Mike Pence and other lawmakers scurried to hiding places. Sund writes that Lt. Gen. Walter Piatt told him he didn’t like the optics of sending uniformed Guard troops to the Capitol, but could allow them to replace police officers at roadside checkpoints. Listening incredulously and trying to explain that he needed help to save officers’ lives, Sund said, he felt both “nauseated” and “mad as hell.” “It’s a response I will never forget for the rest of my life,” Sund writes. While on the call, Sund recalls hearing the frantic voice of an officer being broadcast into the command center: “Shots fired in the Capitol, shots fired in the Capitol.” Sund’s anger boiled over and he shouted the report of gunfire into the conference call: “Is that urgent enough for you now?” Then Sund hung up to deal with this new crisis.A Pentagon spokesman, asked to respond to some of Sund’s claims, did not answer a question about his assertions that the military had beefed up security for top military officials’ homes on Jan. 6. The spokesman referred to a timeline released by the Department of Defense spelling out leaders’ “planning and execution” related to the attack on the Capitol.

Pentagon deployed security forces to protect themselves while ignoring besieged Congress on January 6 -  A new book written by former US Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund, and obtained in advance by the Washington Post, claims that while high-level generals and civilian officials at the Pentagon were denying his urgent requests to deploy National Guard soldiers to the Capitol as it was under siege by Trump’s right-wing mob on January 6, 2021, the Department of Defense ordered that security forces be sent to protect the homes and offices of high-level department officials. In the book, Courage Under Fire, according to the Post account, Sund wrote that during the attack on Congress, “the Pentagon fully understands the urgency and danger of the situation even as it does nothing to support us on the Hill.” In the book, the former top cop of the US Capitol Police wrote that Lt. General Walter Piatt told him and others on a 2:35 p.m. conference call on January 6, including Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police Chief Robert Contee, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, and then-D.C. National Guard commander Major General William Walker, that he did not like the “optics” of sending soldiers to help Congress. He said this as Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and other fascists were storming the building, seeking to capture and/or kill politicians who refused to unconstitutionally declare Donald Trump the winner of the 2020 election. In his closed-door testimony to the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 coup attempt, the transcript of which was only released last week, Sund recalled thinking at the time, “You know, here I am getting—my officers are getting beaten, and they’re worried about the optics of the National Guard.” In his interview with the committee, Sund recalled hearing Contee reply to Piatt’s statement that the was not going to approve his request by saying, “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let me get this right. You’re denying the chief of police requests for the National Guard?” Sund recalled Contee turning to him and asking, “‘Steve, are you requesting the National Guard?’ And I said, ‘Yes. This is an urgent, urgent request.’ Second time I said it, ‘I need the National Guard to help reestablish our perimeter.’ And Lieutenant General Piatt came back and he said, ‘It’s not that I’m just denying it; I just don’t like the optics of the National Guard standing a line with the Capitol in the background.’” “It’s a response I will never forget the rest of my life,” Sund wrote in the book, according to the Post. Sund is not the only high-level security official to accuse the Pentagon of slow-rolling the deployment of soldiers prior to and on January 6, so that Trump’s fascists would have ample opportunity to seek out their targets. Speaking to the Select Committee, D.C. Metropolitan Police Chief Contee said that restraints put on the National Guard prior to January 6 by Trump appointees Ryan McCarthy, secretary of the Army, and Christopher Miller, acting secretary of defense, were “odd.” These included forbidding soldiers from advancing past 9th street towards the Capitol without explicit permission from either McCarthy or Miller.

Judge rejects Trump’s motion to dismiss New York AG’s lawsuit A New York state judge on Friday rejected a motion from former President Trump to dismiss a lawsuit filed against him by New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), allowing the case to proceed. New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ruled the arguments from Trump’s legal team were frivolous and rejected an argument that the case is a “witch hunt.” James sued Trump and three of his adult children — Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump and Ivanka Trump — in September following a three-year investigation into whether the former president inflated the value of his properties to his investors to get loans and deflated the value on tax forms. The New York attorney general’s office is pursuing a $250 million penalty against the defendants and asking the court to permanently prohibit them from serving as an officer or director of any corporation registered or licensed in the state. The lawsuit alleges that former President Trump’s children engaged in a conspiracy to commit the crimes and that he was also aided by Trump Organization executives Allen Weisselberg and Jeffrey McConney. Former President Trump’s legal team argued in its motion that James does not have the legal capacity or standing to sue and that disclaimers from his longtime accounting firm, Mazars, protect the defendants. Mazars cut ties with former President Trump and said it could no longer stand behind his financial statements in February. Engoron rejected the arguments, saying they were “borderline frivolous” the first time that the defendants made them, when James sought a preliminary injunction, and that the defendants reiterating them was “frivolous.” He said a state law was “tailor-made” for enforcement from the attorney general, overcoming any argument about capacity and standing, and that the Mazars disclaimers were made by a “non-party.”

 Appeals court blocks Jen Psaki deposition in social media lawsuit -   A federal appeals court has blocked efforts by Republican-led states to force former White House press secretary Jen Psaki to testify about efforts by the Biden administration to urge social media firms to take down certain kinds of posts or bar users from posting. The order on Thursday afternoon from the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is another not-so-veiled rebuke to District Court Judge Terry Doughty, who has been overseeing the suit the attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana filed last year claiming that the administration’s pressure on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube was so intense that it amounted to censorship. The three-judge appeals court panel said Doughty failed to give adequate weight to longstanding legal principles calling for depositions of current and former senior government officials to be limited to instances where they are truly essential. The attorneys general and several private individuals have argued that Psaki’s statements about encouraging social media firms to take down misinformation about the coronavirus and about election fraud are grounds to subject her to questioning, but the appeals judges sharply disagreed. “The plaintiffs argue that a deposition is required in order to, among other things, illuminate the meaning of these statements. Much of this desired illumination, though, is apparent from the record,” Judges Edith Clement, Leslie Southwick and Stephen Higginson wrote in their joint order. “In a similar vein, the plaintiffs say they need to uncover the identities of government officials and social media platforms mentioned in Psaki’s statements. The record is already replete with such information.” The 5th Circuit panel also suggested that in the absence of evidence that Psaki herself was interacting with the social media firms or dictating policy, there was little reason to demand her testimony. “As Press Secretary, Psaki’s role was to inform the media of the administration’s priorities, not to develop or execute policy,” the appeals judges wrote. “Unsurprisingly, then, the record does not demonstrate that Psaki has unique first-hand knowledge that would justify the extraordinary measure of deposing a high-ranking executive official.” Clement and Southwick are appointees of President George W. Bush. Higginson was appointed by President Barack Obama. “The central concern of this court is that absent ‘extraordinary circumstances,’ depositions of high government officials should not proceed,” the appeals judges wrote. “That rule is a constant across the decades regardless of who the officials are.”

Adam Schiff dragged after ‘Twitter Files’ shows he asked site to suspend journo: ‘Expel Schiff from Congress' - Critics of Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., were outraged after reading Elon Musk and journalist Matt Taibbi’s latest "Twitter Files" entry alleging that Schiff lobbied Twitter to suspend journalists from the platform. Published Tuesday, the latest round of the Twitter Files – internal documents revealing how Twitter engaged in censorship and promoted disinformation in tandem with government agencies for the past few years – revealed that Schiff’s office asked Twitter to remove journalist Paul Sperry and others from the site. Taibbi, who published the Twitter Files post-by-post to Twitter at the behest of Musk, provided documentation showing that "the office for Democrat and House Intel Committee chief Adam Schiff" asked "Twitter to ban journalist Paul Sperry." The document Taibbi shared featured correspondence between the "House Permanent Select Intelligence Committee" – Schiff’s office – and Twitter, which included a request to "Suspend the many accounts, including @GregRubini and @paulsperry, which repeatedly promoted false QAnon conspiracies and harassed [REDACTED]." As Taibbi’s documentation indicated however, Twitter was reluctant to fulfill such a request, responding, "we’ll review the accounts again but I believe [REDACTED] mentioned only one qualified for suspension." In response to Schiff’s office demanding Twitter remove "any and all content" as well as "quotes, retweets, and reactions to that content" concerning its staff members, Twitter flat-out refused. A Twitter staffer responded, "no, this isn’t feasible/we don’t do this." Sperry, an author and New York Post columnist, was later suspended from Twitter for unrelated reasons, telling conservative commentator Glenn Beck in August 2022 it was due to tweets of his about the FBI’s raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.However, Sperry was reinstated to Twitter this week and immediately responded to the latest Twitter Files revelations. He claimed that the real reason Schiff sought his suspension was because, at the time, Sperry was reporting on the whistleblower who exposed the phone call to Ukraine that prompted Trump’s first impeachment.

Twitter Data Breach: Hack Put 200 Million Users' Private Info Up For Grabs - The hacker had demanded $200,000 to return the breached data back in December but warned that if their conditions are not fulfilled, they will release the data for free... 200 million Twitter users’ private information, including their email addresses, was put for sale after a breach exposed 400 million users’ private information in the last week of December 2022. The hacker behind the December breach had earlier demanded $200,000 from Twitter in a bid to return the stolen data and warned if the demand is not fulfilled, the data will be released for free. The latest set of data posted on the hacker forum has been traced back to the same breach from December 2022. Researchers at Privacy Affairs confirmed that the leaked data set on the hacker forum is the same from December. The 200 million number, in this case, resulted from the removal of duplicates. The released data set doesn’t contain phone numbers. The researchers warned that these data sets could be used to initiate social engineering or “doxing” campaigns. The data set was originally 63GB, but after removing duplicates and compressing the files, the size of the latest data set was reduced to 4GB and free to download. The hacker also noted that the analysis of original file dates and account creation dates “strongly suggest” that this was collected from early November 2021 through December 14, 2021. Many users on Twitter demanded that the social media platform looks into security as these hacks put activists and whistleblowers in danger.

Elon Musk secures world record for largest-ever loss of personal fortune - Elon Musk has secured a world record for the largest loss of personal fortune in history, Guinness World Records said Friday. In a blog post, the global organization, which keeps track of a huge variety of records, cited Forbes’s estimate that Musk had lost around $182 billion since November 2021 but noted that other sources indicate the figure is closer to $200 billion. While the true figure is unclear, Musk’s losses appear to easily surpass those of the previous record-holder, Japanese tech investor Masayoshi Son, who lost $58.6 billion in 2000. Forbes reported that that Musk’s net worth dropped from a peak of $320 billion in November 2021 to $137 billion on Tuesday. The magazine attributed Musk’s steep decline in net worth to shares of Tesla, of which Musk is CEO and the largest shareholder, falling by 65 percent. Forbes reported that the drop occurred almost entirely after Musk announced his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter in April. Musk sold $7 billion worth of Tesla stock as he was trying to finance his deal to buy the social media company and another $4 billion in November. He sold another $3.58 billion worth of stock last month, bringing his total sell-off to more than $23 billion since April. Musk lost his status as the world’s wealthiest person as a result of Tesla’s collapsing shares, being surpassed by French fashion and cosmetics magnate Bernard Arnault.

Alex Jones’s attorney suspended for sharing Sandy Hook families’ medical records    An attorney for Infowars founder Alex Jones has been suspended from practicing law for six months after a judge determined he gave Sandy Hook families’ confidential medical records to people who weren’t authorized to have them. Norman Pattis represented Jones in a defamation case in Connecticut brought by several families of the victims of the Sandy Hook shooting. The 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School left 26 people, including 20 children, dead. Barbara Bellis, a superior court judge in Connecticut, ruled on Thursday that Pattis acted “knowingly and intentionally in disregard” of his obligations to respect a protective order from the court that designated the Sandy Hook families’ medical and mental health records as confidential. The families’ medical records were reportedly passed to several other people connected to Jones’s various legal battles who were not authorized to access the documents. “The Connecticut plaintiffs’ sensitive information which should have been safeguarded and which was also protected by the court order was carelessly passed around from one unauthorized individual to another, without regard for the protective order, and with no effort to safeguard the Connecticut plaintiffs’ sensitive, confidential documents,” Bellis said in her decision.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to plead not guilty at scheduled New York City arraignment: reports  - FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is reportedly expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday to federal fraud and money laundering charges in New York federal court following his release on $250 million bond. The 30-year-old cryptocurrency entrepreneur’s next court appearance is scheduled for Tuesday at the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, where The Wall Street Journal first reported Friday Bankman-Fried will likely appear in person to enter a not guilty plea. This comes less than two weeks after Bankman-Fried was released from federal custody when his parents agreed to sign a $250 million personal recognizance bond and keep him at their Palo Alto, California home on electronic monitoring while he awaits trial. Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos said prosecutors agreed to what’s considered the largest federal pretrial bond because Bankman-Fried, who was jailed in the Bahamas, agreed to extradition to the U.S. The Justice Department alleges that Bankman-Fried used billions of dollars of FTX customer funds for his personal use, to make investments and millions of dollars of political contributions to federal political candidates and committees, and to repay billions of dollars in loans owed by Alameda Research, a cryptocurrency hedge fund he also founded. The federal indictment was unsealed on Dec. 13. 

Sam Bankman-Fried’s Alameda Research troubles predate FTX: Report  -- New reports into Sam Bankman-Fried and his collapsed exchanges revealed that Alameda Research, the now-bankrupt crypto trading firm, almost collapsed in 2018, even before FTX was in the picture.A report published in The Wall Street Journal citing former employees revealed that Alameda incurred heavy losses from its trading algorithm. The algorithm was designed to make a large number of automated and fast trades. However, the firm was losing money by guessing the wrong way about price movements. In 2018, Alameda lost nearly two-thirds of its assets due to the price fall of the XRP token and was in a blink of a collapse. However, Bankman-Fried reportedly managed to rescue the trading firm by raising funds from lenders and investors on a promise of returns of up to 20% on their investment. As per the report, In Jan. 2019, Alameda sponsored the inaugural Binance Blockchain Week conference, and SBF used the event to get in touch with investors to get funding for his failing trading firm.  Later in April 2019, FTX was launched with a promise to offer a safe haven for institutional investors. With the launch of the FTX, Bankman Fried used Alameda to fuel its growth as the trading company became the major market maker for the exchange. It was always open for other traders to purchase from and sell to. People familiar with Alameda’s tactics claim that the exchange occasionally adopted the losing side of a deal to draw clients.  While Bankman Fried had claimed earlier that Alameda and FTX have always operated independently, the recent lawsuit by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suggests otherwise.The lawsuit revealed that Bankman Fried instructed to create a piece of code to gain an unfair advantage. The code would let Alameda maintain a negative balance on FTX regardless of the amount of collateral it placed with the exchange. Bankman-Fried also ensured that Alameda’s FTX collateral wouldn't be immediately sold if its value dropped below a particular threshold.

Sam Bankman-Fried offered lenders 20% returns in a scramble to rescue his crypto empire from an earlier crisis in 2018, report says --FTX cofounder Sam Bankman-Fried promised potential lenders returns of up to 20% as he sought to save his crypto empire from an earlier crisis in 2018, a report said.  The Wall Street Journal described problems at Alameda Research, the sister company to FTX, which it said stretched back years before its collapse in late 2022. Citing anonymous sources, the outlet said Alameda was already struggling in 2018. The crypto hedge fund needed rescuing after its algorithm for automated trading ran up losses on a series of inaccurate calls, The Journal said. The issue, the report said, led Bankman-Fried to seek out additional loans to keep Alameda going. Per The Journal, he promised annual returns as high as 20% in exchange for loans of cash or crypto, but offered few specifics. Alameda continued operating past that crisis, and Bankman-Fried founded FTX in mid-2019. Both spectacularly failed in late 2022 after losing billions, and legal action began against Bankman-Fried and others after accusations that FTX and Alameda had misused client funds. Bankman-Fried is due in court on January 3 to answer federal charges linked to the collapse. He is expected to made a plea deal after he was criminally charged on eight counts. They include fraud for allegedly using FTX funds to support the endeavors of Alameda, buy real estate, and fund millions of dollars in political contributions. His victims were lenders and customers of FTX, according to prosecutors, who accuse him of securing the funds by deception. His former associates have already struck plea deals.  Former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison pleaded guilty to seven counts, while FTX cofounder Gary Wang pleaded guilty to four. They are both now cooperating with prosecutors.

Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to fraud charges in FTX case -FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried pleaded not guilty to criminal charges Tuesday, a move that lays the foundation for one of the most high-profile white-collar fraud trials in recent years. The crypto founder appeared in U.S. District Court in New York wearing a blue suit, white shirt and blue tie, and sitting at the defense table between his lawyers, Mark Cohen and Christian Everdell. While the plea was not unexpected, it buys the 30-year-old more time, legal experts say. Bankman-Fried will get a better idea on the evidence prosecutors have against him and plan his next move — negotiate or fight. The plea puts the case on track for a lengthy trial, which could span several weeks and not start for at least a year.

U.S. closes in on Bankman-Fried inner circle with probe of FTX chief engineer - U.S. authorities are ratcheting up pressure on Sam Bankman-Fried's inner circle as they scrutinize former close FTX associate Nishad Singh, according to people familiar with the matter. If federal prosecutors in Manhattan find Singh had a role in the alleged multiyear scheme at FTX and trading firm Alameda Research to defraud investors and clients, he could be charged as soon as this month, said one of the people. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also probing Singh, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing the matter.  The scrutiny of Singh, who until recently lived with Bankman-Fried in a Bahamas penthouse and was a high school friend of his younger brother, Gabe, presents the latest legal threat to Bankman-Fried as he fights a slew of criminal charges. Former close associates Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang have pleaded guilty to fraud in connection to their roles at Alameda and FTX and are working with authorities.

U.S. prosecutors launch website for Bankman-Fried alleged fraud victims  (Reuters) - The U.S. government has launched a website for victims of FTX cryptocurrency exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried's alleged fraud to communicate with law enforcement. In an order late Friday night, U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan authorized federal prosecutors to use the website, and not have to contact victims individually. FTX could owe money to more than 1 million people, making it "impracticable" to contact each, prosecutors had said.Federal law requires prosecutors to contact possible crime victims to inform them of their rights, including the rights to obtain restitution, be heard in court and be protected from defendants. "If you believe that you may have been a victim of fraud by Samuel Bankman-Fried, A/K/A/ 'SBF,' please contact the victim/witness coordinator at the United States Attorney's office," the website read. The website had gone live by Friday afternoon.

Media Still Fawning Over FTX Fraudsters Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried - The Washington Post published an absurd story about Caroline Ellison, the admitted crypto fraudster who is helping federal prosecutors build a case against her former lover Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced FTX founder who remains an alleged crypto fraudster. (SBF pleaded not guilty to multiple felonies on Tuesday.)The headline reads: "Caroline Ellison wanted to make a difference. Now she's facing prison." The story highlights the criminal's élite pedigree and preternatural intellect.Ellison was raised by "accomplished academics" and educated at a "prestigious" university (Stanford). She was a gifted child who read "a thick Harry Potter book when she was just 5" and grew up to espouse "the importance of giving money away to make the world a better place."Didn't the Washington Post publish a similar story about Sam Bankman-Fried?  Indeed. Here's the headline: "Before FTX collapse, founder poured millions into pandemic prevention." The story explains that SBF was "raised in an elite academic family" and "became committed to philanthropy at a young age" before setting out to save the world by giving millions of dollars to Democratic politicians and the various causes they support. Jeez. Next they'll be writing puff pieces about actual terrorists. Been there, done that. In 2019, the original headline on the Post‘s obituary for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi described the dead thug as an "austere religious scholar. Remember those well-credentialed lawyers who firebombed a police car during the "mostly peaceful" riots in the summer of 2020? The New York Times and New York magazine published fawning profiles of the criminals and defended their efforts to "embrace a more flexible definition of ‘lawless'" because "nothing else works."Urooj Rahman, who threw the Molotov cocktail, attended "one of the most selective public high schools in New York" before advancing to Fordham Law. She spent a summer in "Occupied Palestine" and cared deeply about "people who were systemically oppressed"Rahman's accomplice, Colinford Mattis, went to Princeton and NYU before becoming a corporate lawyer. He had a goldendoodle named "Lorde Hampton" and "was always available to give friends a ride." Indeed, he was driving while Rahman tossed the Molotov cocktail out the passenger window.

Ex-Celsius CEO is sued by New York for duping crypto investors -- Former Celsius Network Chief Executive Alex Mashinsky, whose once highflying crypto lender went bankrupt last year, was sued for fraud by the New York attorney general — the latest fallout from turmoil in the industry. Mashinsky, who co-founded Celsius, duped hundreds of thousands of investors out of billions of dollars of cryptocurrency by repeatedly making false and misleading statements about the lender's safety, according to a suit filed Thursday in Manhattan. The alleged scheme ran from 2018 to June 2022, when Celsius froze withdrawals. "Alex Mashinsky promised to lead investors to financial freedom but led them down a path of financial ruin," New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement. "The law is clear that making false and unsubstantiated promises and misleading investors is illegal."

Genesis says it needs more time to fix crypto lending problems -  The crypto broker Genesis told clients in a new update that it needs more time to come up with a solution for the troubles at its lending unit. "While we are committed to moving as quickly as possible, this is a very complex process that will take some additional time. We believe we can arrive at a solution," interim CEO Derar Islim wrote in a letter seen by Bloomberg News. "We will continue to give you updates on meaningful developments, including any updates on timing." The sudden collapse of FTX, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, toward the end of 2022 roiled the digital-asset market and triggered a liquidity crunch at Genesis. The company has been trying to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, though some investors approached for the lifeline have balked at the interconnectedness between Genesis and other related entities that are part of Barry Silbert's Digital Currency Group, Bloomberg News reported recently.

Crypto brokerage Genesis eliminates 30% of staff in latest cuts - Genesis Global Trading has laid off more than 60 employees in its latest round of job cuts, amounting to roughly 30% of the troubled crypto brokerage's workforce. The dismissals follow a separate round of job eliminations last year that saw a number of key leadership departures, and signal further upheaval at the New York-based firm amid an extended rout in the digital-assets market. The company now has 145 employees remaining, according to a Genesis spokesperson. Genesis has been dealing with blows from multiple fronts. The sudden collapse of FTX, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, toward the end of 2022 roiled the digital-asset market and triggered a liquidity crunch at Genesis. The company has been trying to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, though some investors approached for the lifeline have balked at the interconnectedness between Genesis and other related entities that are part of Barry Silbert's Digital Currency Group, Bloomberg News reported recently

Digital Currency Group closes wealth division amid trouble   - The cryptocurrency conglomerate Digital Currency Group closed its wealth management division, the latest sign of trouble amid a deep and prolonged slump in the crypto industry.The Stamford, Connecticut-based firm, which controls the asset manager Grayscale Investments and the brokerage Genesis, among others, is dealing with numerous issues: It had dismissed 10% of its staff toward the end of last year. Genesis also eliminated more than 60 positions in what amounted to 30% of its workforce.As part of the latest changes, DCG shuttered its wealth management division called HQ, a company spokesperson confirmed. The closure was first reported by The Information.

SEC pushes back on Binance.US deal to buy Voyager Digital - - The Securities and Exchange Commission is pushing back on Binance.US's plan to buy the bankrupt crypto lender Voyager Digital, a deal valued at about $1 billion, according to a bankruptcy court filing.  The purchase agreement underpinning the deal doesn't include sufficient detail about Binance's ability to close the transaction, the SEC said in a limited objection Wednesday. More disclosure is needed about what Binance's U.S. operations will look like following the deal, along with more information about how customer assets will be secured, lawyers for the SEC said.   "A diligent review of the deal is to be expected and welcomed," Binance.US said in a statement. "We will work with the relevant parties to provide any requested information. We look forward to completing the transaction and bringing Voyager customers to Binance.US."

Coinbase reaches $100 million settlement with New York | American Banker - Coinbase Global, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, said its U.S. unit reached a $100 million settlement with New York regulators for letting customers open accounts with insufficient background checks.The settlement with the New York State Department of Financial Services requires the firm to pay a $50 million fine and spend $50 million to improve compliance over two years, Coinbase said on Wednesday."Coinbase failed to build and maintain a functional compliance program that could keep pace with its growth," Adrienne A. Harris, New York's superintendent of financial services, said in a statement. During the relevant period, Coinbase treated customer onboarding requirements as a "simple check-the-box exercise and failed to conduct appropriate due diligence," the department said.

Fed, FDIC, & OCC Warn Banks about Contagion from Cryptos, with Laundry List of Sordid Stuff Inherent in the Crypto Scene by Wolf Richter - Following a series of bankruptcies of crypto companies, and following the total collapse of some stablecoins, and following the general collapse of crypto prices, and following revelations of all kinds of imaginable and previously unimaginable shenanigans, scams, and frauds in the entire crypto and DeFi space, the US banking regulators today issued a warning to banks about the crypto and DeFi space, amid fears of contagion to the banking sector. So far, crypto has been like a giant videogame where nothing is really illegal because it’s just a videogame, and where players are having lots of fun clicking on buttons and watching flashing screens while scamming and defrauding each other, a videogame where people in the end lose all their money if they don’t get out in time. And no big deal because it’s just a videogame, with no real consequences on the economy, other than a profuse waste of energy, because there is nothing crypto is actually needed for outside of the videogame. But contagion spreading from the beloved and fun crypto videogame to the despicable fractional-reserve fiat banking system could be a real mess. So the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) – the three banking regulators in the US – issued a joint-warning today to banks, with a laundry list of “key risks” associated with cryptos – in effect, enumerating sordid stuff that is standard practice in the crypto videogame, and why banks need to protect themselves. This is their laundry list of stuff that’s going on in the crypto videogame that banks “should be aware of,” quoted verbatim from their joint statement:

• Risk of fraud and scams among crypto-asset sector participants.
• Legal uncertainties related to custody practices, redemptions, and ownership rights, some of which are currently the subject of legal processes and proceedings.
• Inaccurate or misleading representations and disclosures by crypto-asset companies, including misrepresentations regarding federal deposit insurance, and other practices that may be unfair, deceptive, or abusive, contributing to significant harm to retail and institutional investors, customers, and counterparties [for example, now-bankrupt Voyager was advertising that customer deposits were covered by the FDIC!]
• Significant volatility in crypto-asset markets, the effects of which include potential impacts on deposit flows associated with crypto-asset companies.
• Susceptibility of stablecoins to run risk, creating potential deposit outflows for banking organizations that hold stablecoin reserves [remember stablecoin Terra Luna, which collapsed to nothing in no time when there was a run on the stablecoin].
• Contagion risk within the crypto-asset sector resulting from interconnections among certain crypto-asset participants, including through opaque lending, investing, funding, service, and operational arrangements. These interconnections may also present concentration risks for banking organizations with exposures to the crypto-asset sector.
• Risk management and governance practices in the crypto-asset sector exhibiting a lack of maturity and robustness.
• Heightened risks associated with open, public, and/or decentralized networks, or similar systems, including, but not limited to, the lack of governance mechanisms establishing oversight of the system; the absence of contracts or standards to clearly establish roles, responsibilities, and liabilities; and vulnerabilities related to cyber-attacks, outages, lost or trapped assets, and illicit finance.

And the joint statement added that “issuing or holding as principal crypto-assets that are issued, stored, or transferred on an open, public, and/or decentralized network, or similar system is highly likely to be inconsistent with safe and sound banking practices.” And the statement said that the bank regulators “have significant safety and soundness concerns with business models that are concentrated in crypto-asset-related activities or have concentrated exposures to the crypto-asset sector.” I get the message that it’s OK for the videogame players to lose all their money on this stuff; but that it’s not OK for banks to lose all their money on this stuff. No major US bank has picked up life-threating exposure to crypto, but some small banks have in a videogame-like effort to become a big bank in no time, and their stocks soared while what I call consensual hallucination still reigned as the Fed’s money printing was turning investors’ brains to mush. But since November 2021, the Fed has been talking about, and then started doing, some real tightening, and the party was over, and cryptos crashed, and everything around them crashed, and the banks that dealt with cryptos, their stocks crashed too. Here are the two main ones:

• Silvergate Capital [SI], which had gone public via a classic IPO in November 2019, became a poster girl of the principle of consensual hallucination. It owns Silvergate Bank, “the leading provider of innovative financial infrastructure solutions and services to participants in the nascent and expanding digital currency industry,” it said at the time. Its shares started spiking in October 2020, from around $15, and a year later, by November 2021, had multiplied by a factor of 15, to $220. Then they kathoomphed, became a hero in my pantheon of Imploded Stocks, and today closed at $17.27, down by 92.8% from their November 2021 high:
• Signature Bank [SBNY] made a genius Wall Street move. It was just a small bank until it tied its fortunes to cryptos, and its shares spiked from around $120 a share at the end of 2019 to $374 on January 18, 2022. On the very day that its shares peaked, it sold an additional 2.1 million shares at $352 a share, extracting $739 million from folks that bought those shares in a final paroxysm of consensual hallucination. Those folks got instantly crushed, and at today’s closing price of $113.17 are down 68.9% in ten months. Crypto hype-and-hoopla just keeps on giving.Since the intraday peak of January 18, shares are down 69.8%, and there’s a spot for them in my pantheon of Imploded Stocks (minimum requirement: -70% from peak):

Crypto-Bank Silvergate Details its Own Implosion, Much of its Equity Capital Wiped Out. I’m Waiting for the FDIC to Show Up by Wolf Richter -  Silvergate Capital, which owns Silvergate Bank, is a tiny bank holding company that had gone public via IPO in November 2019, and got into crypto to become a big crypto bank, serving crypto companies, such as FTX, which started to implode as part of the crypto implosion. Today, it reported on a preliminary basis some details of its crypto-disaster in Q4, including huge losses on the sale of securities that it had to sell to deal with a massive run on the bank. It will report actual results later this month. The FDIC, which insures dollar-deposit accounts at Silvergate Bank, is likely getting very antsy because today, Silvergate reported a laundry list of Q4 losses and write-downs that could wipe out most of its equity capital. Typically, when the FDIC takes over a bank, shareholders get bailed in first. And the shares [SI], a hero in my pantheon of Imploded Stocks since last year, kathoomphed another 43% at the moment, and are down 95% from their high in November 2021 (price data via YCharts):  This was just a tiny bank: On its early published financial statements for the years 2017 through 2019, Silvergate’s total assets were in the $2 billion range. But then, as it got into crypto, they ballooned by a factor of 8, to $16 billion at the end of 2021, after which it began to fall apart.   Silvergate reported a loss of $718 million on the sale of securities in Q4, a huge loss for a tiny bank like this.It said it will incur more losses on the sale of securities. And it may have to mark to market the securities it doesn’t sell, for a loss possibly as high as another $300 million. It will book an impairment charge in Q4 to reflect some or all of this.It took a $196 million loss in Q4 to write off the crypto technology it had bought from Facebook back when Facebook skuttled its own efforts to build the Diem stablecoin.And it disclosed other write-offs and charges today that we’ll get to in a moment.So, let’s see… Silvergate started out Q4 with $1.33 billion in equity capital:

• Minus $718 million due to the loss on the sale of securities;
• Minus a portion or all of $300 million on the loss from securities that it will sell, or that it may have to mark to market;
• Minus $196 million on the write-off of the crypto technology it bought from Facebook;
• Minus the other losses and write-downs we’ll get to in a moment.

Combined, this could wipe out much of Silvergate’s $1.33 billion in equity capital. 

Crypto panic at Silvergate spawns a new breed of bank run | When U.S. banks fell like dominoes during the Great Depression, the cause was often a classic run: Depositors withdrew cash en masse amid fears that lenders were amassing huge losses on bad loans and investments. The cryptocurrency era just put a new twist on that — with the depositors running into trouble first. Silvergate Capital Corp., a California lender that offers digital-asset ventures a place to park their cash, jolted shareholders Thursday with the revelation that it had recently survived an $8.1 billion drawdown on deposits. That's roughly 70%, even more severe than runs seen in the Depression. But in this case, the bad betting was done by the depositors themselves, a roster of crypto entities including parts of Sam Bankman-Fried's doomed FTX empire.

Regulators tell banks to expect extra scrutiny on crypto exposures - Banks that want to handle crypto assets or do business with crypto-focused companies will have to clear a high bar, bank regulators warned Tuesday. In a joint statement, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said issuing or holding digital assets on open, public or decentralized networks is "highly likely to be inconsistent with safe and sound banking practices." Similarly, the statement noted, the regulators have "significant safety and soundness concerns" about banks lending or providing other services to companies heavily involved in crypto activities.

Citadel Posts Record $35.5 Billion In Revenue For Hedge Fund, Securities Operations - Yesterday we listed some of the best and worst performing hedge funds of 2022: we missed the most important one.After a stellar 2021, when it generated $16.2 billion in revenue, in 2022 Ken Griffen's Citadel hedge fund - which had $54.5 billion in AUM as of Jan 1 - had a blowout year, and according to the WSJ, it generated about $28 billion in revenue, citing sources. It wasn't immediately clear what exactly is meant by "revenue" here: new funds, services rendered, or unbooked and booked gains, but whatever it is, the number is a lot, and follows an impressive 38.1% return at the company's flagship multi-strategy fund, Wellington. It also far outstripped the hedge fund's prior record of $16.2 billion the year before.Additionally, Citadel Securities, a separate entity and one of the world’s biggest electronic-trading firms, had $7.5 billion in revenue, also up from the prior record of $7 billion in 2021. Although in a market where there has been virtually no "lit" (or exchange liquidity) and where most trades have gone through internalizers like Citadel, this particular success is easier to comprehend.And yes, those pointing out that companies which control both a hedge fund and a trading operation are not that different from SBF's empire, which consisted for the FTX exchange and the Alameda hedge fund, are not too far off.As the WSJ recounts, after its near-death experience in 2008, Citadel has outpaced many rivals in recent years, and each of its hedge funds posted double-digit gains after fees in 2022. Operating under tight risk controls that leave Citadel with little directional exposure to markets, the firm’s 1,000-plus traders make bets across asset classes in markets around the world. The firm doesn’t provide detailed information to clients about significant trades, though earlier in the year it told them it had benefited from successful commodities bets.As for Citadel Securities, regular readers are quite familiar with it (not lease because of their threat to sue Zerohedge for suggesting it was frontrunning client orderflow just days before securities regulator FINRA accused it of doing just that) as a global market-making operation that handles more than 20% of the shares that change hands in U.S. stock markets each day. The business, which also trades futures, options, Treasuries and currencies, benefits from increased volumes and volatility, as well as reduced liquidity allowing it to pocket huge bid/ask spreads and prosper even when markets fall. Furthermore, the pandemic-era boom in activity by retail investors benefited Citadel Securities’ so-called retail-wholesaler unit, which executes orders for brokerages such Robinhood and, to a lesser extent, Schwab.

Q4 2022 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 49 Institutions; Search for "Whale" Continues - The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.  Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through December, 2022. Since the last update at the end of September 2022, the list decreased by two to 49 institutions after four additions and six removals. Assets decreased by $401 million to $51.1 billion, with the change primarily resulting from a $1.3 billion decrease from updated asset figures through September 30, 2021. A year ago, the list held 57 institutions with assets of $56.6 billion.  With the conclusion of the fourth quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,789 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 2.7 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,740 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,029 action terminations, 411 failures, 281 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23 percent of the 1,789 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list. On December 1, 2022, the FDIC released third quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. While FDIC did not make a comment within its press release on the Official Problem Bank List, they provided details in an attachment that listed 42 institutions with assets of $164 billion. In its 2022 first quarter release, the FDIC list had a material $119 billion increase in assets. Since that release, none of the prudential banking regulators – FDIC, Federal Reserve, and OCC – have publicly released an enforcement action detailing an enforcement action against a large institution. The Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) passed by Congress in 1989 requires publication of enforcement actions. See “Supervisory Enforcement Actions Since FIRREA and FDICIA,” published by the Federal reserve Bank of Minneapolis for further details. Prior to FIRREA, enforcement actions were not published by the prudential banking regulators. Section 913 of FIRREA requires public disclosures of enforcement actions. Section 913(2) does allow a delay in the enforcement action publication if “exceptional circumstances” exist. The prudential regulator must make a written determination that publication “would seriously threaten the safety & soundness of an insured depository institution.” The prudential regulator “may delay the publication of such order for a reasonable time.” The section does not define “a reasonable time.” It has been more than six months since that enforcement action was issued, so it seems the primary regulator considers this a “reasonable time” before it informs the public of a large troubled institution. Regulators still haven't disclosed the "whale" (that added close to $120 billion to problem assets).

OFR wants daily reports on most repo transactions from biggest banks - — The Office of Financial Research issued a proposed rule Thursday that would require certain financial institutions to report daily transaction-level data on their non-centrally cleared bilateral repurchase agreement trades to gain greater insight into an often opaque yet crucial financial market. The proposal would compel both bank-affiliated and nonbank broker-dealers to submit daily reports with trade and collateral data on pending non-centrally cleared bilateral repurchase agreement transactions. The would apply to roughly 40 of the largest broker-dealers, the office said. "The OFR is proposing to fill this data gap and provide regulators with more insight into Treasury market functioning, by requiring the largest institutions in the repo market to submit data on their non-centrally cleared bilateral transactions to the OFR each day," said James Martin, deputy director of operations.

Lawsuits against JPMorgan, PNC test banks' liability in wire fraud cases --Two ongoing lawsuits will test just how responsible big banks are for recent fraud losses and whether their monitoring practices are enough to shield them from accountability when customers lose money to insider threats and phished credentials. In one case, Joyce's Jewelry, a jeweler in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, alleged in the U.S. District Court in Pittsburgh that PNC allowed hackers to empty the business's accounts because it lacked adequate measures to prevent the fraud. Hackers successfully phished for one employee's credentials and used them to wire away all $1.6 million the company had in its four accounts. However, PNC promised to require tokens from two Joyce's employees to complete such transactions, according to Joyce's, which is one reason why the company claims PNC bears responsibility.

Medical credit cards cause financial pain for struggling patients, senators say - Credit cards offered by banks including Wells Fargo and Synchrony Financial intended to cover expensive health care services may be causing unnecessary financial pain for consumers, said a group of U.S. senators, who cited potentially deceptive promotions. Struggling patients are "lured" in by deferred-interest offers that allow the lenders to profit off of consumers dealing with high health care costs, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Edward Markey, both Democrats from Massachusetts, said in a letter to Wells Fargo and Synchrony. Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, along with Democrats Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, also signed the letter requesting information from the lenders by Jan. 12. "Patients — often under duress because of concerns about their medical care — are being pushed into and then locked into medical credit cards despite the availability of alternative payment options that might be more beneficial and offer lower interest rates," the lawmakers said in the letter.

CFPB creates new 'repeat offender unit' targeting large banks -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has created a "repeat offender unit" that will review and monitor the activities of large banks that run afoul of consumer protection laws. In a recent report highlighting its supervisory activity, the CFPB said that it has created a repeat offender unit focused on identifying the root causes of recurring violations. The unit will recommend and pursue remedies to hold companies accountable for failing to comply with federal law. The unit also will be focused on designing a model way to review and monitor recidivists to reduce repeat violations in the future. "The Repeat Offender Unit will focus on ways to enhance the detection of repeat offenses, develop a process for rapid review and response designed to address the root cause of violations, and recommend corrective actions designed to stop recidivist behavior," the CFPB said in its supervisory highlights report. "This will include closer scrutiny of corporate compliance with orders to ensure that requirements are being met and any issues are addressed in a timely manner. "

 CFPB's rulemaking agenda focused on bank fees -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has proposed rules aimed at curtailing overdraft and nonsufficient-funds fees and is looking to reduce credit card late fees that drive significant profits for banks. The CFPB also expects to issue two long-awaited rules in the next few months — on small-business lending data and personal financial data rights — that will have a major impact on many financial services firms. The bureau's latest rulemaking agenda, posted this week by the Office of Budget and Management, reflects the efforts of CFPB Director Rohit Chopra to reduce a wide range of bank fees charged including credit card late fees and overdraft fees. Chopra has been signaling for the past year that the CFPB wants to slash the $12 billion in annual late fees charged by credit card companies. Though the CFPB set new deadlines for several upcoming rules, the timelines are not set in stone. Chopra also broke from tradition by not providing any discussion of upcoming rules.

CFPB, New York AG sue auto lender Credit Acceptance for deceiving borrowers - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and New York's attorney general sued subprime auto lender Credit Acceptance Corp. Wednesday for deceiving borrowers about the true cost of car loans, violating state usury laws and failing to disclose charges and terms to consumers. Regulators allege that Credit Acceptance, an indirect auto lender in Southfield, Michigan, deceived thousands of borrowers by failing to disclose and include finance charges in calculating the cost of a car loan. Consumers typically are not provided the full cost and interest rate on a loan at a dealership and many only find out about the true cost when a loan contract is sent to them in the mail, regulators alleged in a 59-page lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said that his agency and the New York Attorney General's office "seek to halt Credit Acceptance's illegal practices and make consumers whole." A lawsuit filed Wednesday by the New York AG and CFPB allege that Credit Acceptance Corp. deceived subprime auto borrowers with hidden fees and unlawfully high interest rates. New York Attorney General Letitia James said Credit Acceptance pushed unaffordable loans onto tens of thousands of low-income consumers without considering their ability to repay their loans in full.

Housing January 2nd Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 3.4% Week-over-week -  Altos reports inventory is down 3.4% week-over-week and down 15.0% from the peak on October 28, 2022.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.  As of December 30th, inventory was at 491 thousand (7-day average), compared to 508 thousand the prior week.   Inventory has declined sharply over the holidays.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2022.  The black line is for 2019.Inventory was at a record low in early 2022 and was up compared to the same week in 2021 as of May 20, 2022. Inventory was up compared to the same week in 2020 as of October 7, 2022, however, inventory will start well below 2020 levels in early 2023.  Currently inventory is up 67.3% year-over-year, and down 35.7% compared to 2019. A key will when inventory starts increasing in 2023 (the bottom is usually in February of each year). Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Homes remain on the market twice as long as they had 6 months ago - Potential homebuyers were not actively house hunting during the holiday season and properties are sitting on the market for longer periods of time, a Redfin analysis finds. On average, houses sat for 40 days before going under contract in the four weeks ending December 25. It's a stark difference from May when houses were on the market for an average of 18 days. Slower sales drove the total number of properties available for purchase up by 18% year-over-year, while new inventory tumbled by 21.6% from last year.

Moody's: National Multifamily Supply and Demand at Lowest Levels since 2009 -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: National Multifamily Supply and Demand at Lowest Levels since 2009  A brief excerpt: The big story here is that demand for apartments fell off a cliff in Q4 2022, but that new supply was also very low, even though there are a large number of apartments currently under construction.First, from Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen and economist Xiaodi Li: Apartment struck a balance, Office demand plummeted, and Retail remains flat    National multifamily supply and demand both cooled to their lowest levels since 2009. Net absorption and new construction leveled off at just around 10,000 units in Q4, keeping the national multifamily vacancy flat at 4.4%. … Total construction delivery and net absorption only reached 100,470 units and 135,472 units for the year respectively, the weakest record over the past decade.... Moody’s Analytics (Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.4% in Q4 2022, unchanged from 4.4% in Q3, and down from a pandemic peak of 5.4% in both Q1 and Q2 2021.This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999).  Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities. There is more in the article.

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4 as "demand plummeted", Mall Vacancy Rate Unchanged - From Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen and economist Xiaodi Li: Apartment struck a balance, Office demand plummeted, and Retail remains flat - Corporate profits squeezed under macroeconomic uncertainties and flexible work arrangements weakened office demand and continued to transform the sector’s fundamental. Moreover, new office demand isn’t always reflected through direct leases. As office downsizing became more commonplace, sublet space inevitably followed to absorb new demand. Net absorption plummeted from over 3 million square feet (sqft) in Q3 to -7.13 million sqft in Q4.Affected by the overall office sector sentiment, new delivery dwindled to slightly above 2 million sqft nationwide, the lowest quarterly delivery in our more than 20 years of tracking history. Vacancy climbed for the fourth straight quarter to 18.7%, 20 bps higher than the previous quarter or 60 bps higher than the same time last year. Compared to Q3, asking rent in Q4 increased by 0.3% (from $35.05 to $35.14), and effective rent edged up 0.1% (from $28.00 to $28.04). Reis reported the office vacancy rate was at 18.7% in Q4 2022, up from 18.5% in Q3, and up from 18.1% in Q4 2021.  This was the highest vacancy rate for offices since 1992 (following the S This says nothing about how many people are in the offices (related to the increase in work-from-home), just whether or not the office space is leased. This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual).   The office vacancy rate was elevated prior to the pandemic and moved up during the pandemic. Reis also reported that office effective rents increased 0.1% in Q4; rents are about at the same level as before the pandemic. And from Reis on Retail:   Bolstered by consumer spending, neighborhood and community shopping center net absorption was up 44% in Q4 as compared to last quarter. New construction delivery fell under 600,000 sqft and caused the inventory to grow just above 3 million sqft for the year, less than half of 2019’s record. Given the relative balance between supply and demand, national vacancy for neighborhood and community shopping centers stayed flat at 10.3% for the fifth straight quarter. Asking/effective rents were up slightly by 0.2%/0.2% in Q4 and remained in the $21/$18-per-sqft range, a level unchanged since 2018. Regional mall properties, on the other hand, continue to be the most at-risk retail subtype according to our commercial mortgage delinquency data, driving overall delinquency behavior among retail assets. Regional and super regional malls’ vacancy ticked up 10 bps to 11.2%, identical to the same time last year. Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 11.2% in Q4 2022, up from 11.1% in Q2 2021, and unchanged from 11.2% in Q4 2021. The regional mall vacancy rate peaked at 11.5% in Q2 2021. For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.3% in Q4, unchanged from 10.3% in Q3, and unchanged from 10.3% in Q4 2021. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked during the pandemic at 10.6% in both Q1 and Q2 2021. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual).   In the last several years, even prior to the pandemic, the regional mall vacancy rates increased significantly from an already elevated level.   Effective rents have been mostly unchanged for regional malls over the last 4+ years, and flat for strip malls for 3+ years.

Construction Spending Increased 0.2% in November - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,807.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,803.2 billion. The November figure is 8.5 percent above the November 2021 estimate of $1,665.2 billion. Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,426.4 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,421.6 billion. ... In November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $381.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised October estimate of $381.6 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 8.2% below the recent peak. Non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is close to the recent peak. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 5.3%. Non-residential spending is up 12.6% year-over-year. Public spending is up 10.4% year-over-year. This was above consensus expectations of a 0.4% decrease in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months combined were revised up.

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 67% YoY, Slightly Below Pre-Pandemic Levels - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through January 3rd. Lumber was at $374 per 1000 board feet this morning.   This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 67% from $1,148 a year ago.   Prices are slightly below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May. It is unlikely we will see a significant runup in prices this Spring due to the housing slowdown.

Vehicles Sales Declined to 13.31 million SAAR in December - Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: Fullsize Trucks Lift December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Above Expectations; Calendar 2022 Ends at 11-Year Low (pay site).Wards Auto estimates sales of 13.31 million SAAR in December 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 5.9% from the November sales rate, and up 4.7% from December 2021.  This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for December (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.  After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).  However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.   Sales in December were above the forecast.

Annual Vehicle Sales decrease 8% in 2022; Heavy Trucks Sales up 2% YoY -  The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December. The BEA estimates sales of 13.31 million SAAR in December 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.3% from the November sales rate, and up 4.7% from December 2021.  The first graph shows annual sales since 1976.  Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 million, down 8.1% from 14.95 million in 2021.Sales in 2022 were impacted significantly by supply chain disruptions, and sales were still down 19% from the 2019 level.This suggests vehicle sales might increase in 2023 even with higher rates and a soft economy. The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April.  Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 441 thousand SAAR in December, down from 510 thousand in November, and down 3.5% from 456 thousand SAAR in December 2021.  On annual basis, sales in 2022 were at 470 thousand, up 1.8% from 462 thousand in 2021. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Sales were decent in December.

Trade Deficit decreased to $61.5 Billion in November -  From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $61.5 billion in November, down $16.3 billion from $77.8 billion in October, revised.November exports were $251.9 billion, $5.1 billion less than October exports. November imports were $313.4 billion, $21.5 billion less than October imports. Exports and imports decreased in November. Exports are up 10% year-over-year; imports are up 2% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back. Both have decreased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are slightly positive. The trade deficit with China decreased to $21.3 billion in November, from $32.5 billion a year ago. The trade deficit was much smaller than the consensus forecast.

US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Plunges In Biggest Drop Since Global Financial Crisis - In a day when strong jobs data (Challenger, ADP, Initial Claims all coming in strong or stronger than expected) has been viewed by markets as bad for risk assets as it signals continued economic strength and continued rate hikes by the Fed, we got yet another conflicting economic signal, this time from the latest US trade deficit, which narrowed in November by much more than expected. According to the BEA, the November trade deficit narrowed to $61.5b from $77.8b in prior month, coming in below the median estimate of $63.0BN (and just barely missing the top end of the range of $61.3BN to $80.5BN from 42 economists). Remarkably, the 20% one-month decline in the deficit was the single biggest drop in the US trade deficit on a percentage basis going back to the global financial crisis! And while it would have been welcome economic news if the drop in the deficit was the result of a surge in exports, the plunge was driven not by rising exports but rather by shrinking imports - a telltale sign of economic slowdown - with consumer goods, industrial supplies, capital goods and autos all contributing to the decline, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis said. To wit, while exports fell 2% in Nov. to $251.9BN from $257.0BN in Oct, imports fell a striking 6.4% in Nov. to $313.4BN from $334.8BN in Oct. Here are the detials: Exports of goods and services decreased $5.1 billion, or 2.0 percent, in November to $251.9 billion. Exports of goods decreased $5.3 billion and exports of services increased $0.2 billion. The decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($3.6billion) and in capital goods ($1.3 billion). An increase in consumer goods ($0.9 billion) partly offset the decreases. The increase in exports of services reflected increases in other business services ($0.1 billion), in telecommunications, computer, and information services ($0.1 billion), and in charges for the use of intellectual property ($0.1 billion). A decrease in travel ($0.2 billion) partly offset the increases. Imports of goods and services decreased $21.5 billion, or 6.4 percent, in November to $313.4 billion. Imports of goods decreased $20.7 billion and imports of services decreased $0.8 billion. The decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in consumer goods ($8.8 billion), in industrial supplies and materials ($3.7 billion), in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($3.3 billion), and in capital goods ($3.0 billion). The decrease in imports of services reflected decreases in transport ($0.7 billion) and in travel ($0.4billion). An increase in charges for the use of intellectual property ($0.2 billion) partly offset the decreases. Whether the plunge in imports is due to a the reverse bullwhip effect, or general economic malaise is unclear; adding to the confusion, the slowdown in US consumer demand for foreign goods and services will serve to boost GDP due to the way net trade is imputed for GDP purposes. In other words, expect a jump in Q4 GDP estimates due to a plunge in US imports.

Trade Deficit Shrinks Dramatically: Interpretations – Menzie Chinn - The trade balance [November release] rose to -$83.3 billion vs. Bloomberg consensus of -96.3 billion. The goods trade deficit with China also shrank sharply. Figure 1: Trade balance as a share of GDP (blue) and goods trade balance with China (tan). US goods exports to, imports from China seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. GDP is IHS-Markit S&P Global. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source. BEA via FRED, IHS-Markit, NBER and author’s calculations.The sharp improvements were caused by import declines exceeding export declines. While sharp, at least part of the decline made sense given past US dollar depreciation. Figure 2: Trade balance as a share of GDP (blue, left scale) and real US dollar exchange rate against a broad basket of currencies, in logs 2006M01=0, lagged two years (red, right scale).  GDP is IHS-Markit S&P Global. Real dollar is goods trade weighted through 2005; goods and services trade weighted thereafter. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source. BEA via FRED, Federal Reserve via FRED, HS-Markit, NBER and author’s calculations.  I’ve plotted the two series so that they should show a positive correlation, with a 2 year lag. Certainly, over the most recent two year period, the correlation is showing up as expected. That being said, with the dollar appreciation that occurred in the preceding two years, we should expect some return to expanding deficits, depending in part on how GDP evolves both at home and abroad.Is the improvement in the trade balance good news insofar as GDP is concerned? In a mechanical sense, conditioning on the other components of GDP as already measured, a smaller trade deficit means the estimate of current GDP should be raised. On the other hand, to the extent that the imports are falling because of decreased import demand from reduced expenditures, rather than from expenditure switching, that means that the prospects for future GDP growth are darkened.I’m not sure that we can infer from the composition of the import decline. Consumer goods led the decline, percentage-wise; however, given the boom in consumer spending on goods over the past year, I’m not sure what to make of this. Capital goods imports accounted for a much smaller decline, so maybe this does not signal an investment cutback due to a perceived incipient recession.

ISM® Manufacturing index Declined to 48.4% in December, Price Index Lowest Since April 2020 - -  The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.4% in December, down from 49.0% in November. The employment index was at 51.4%, up from 48.4% last month, and the new orders index was at 45.2%, down from 47.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% December 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®  “The December Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 49 percent recorded in November. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates contraction after 30 straight months of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.2 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the 47.2 percent recorded in November. The Production Index reading of 48.5 percent is a 3-percentage point decrease compared to November’s figure of 51.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 39.4 percent, down 3.6 percentage points compared to the November figure of 43 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since April 2020 (35.3 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.4 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the November reading of 40 percent. The Employment Index returned to expansion territory (51.4 percent, up 3 percentage points) after contracting in November (48.4 percent). The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 45.1 percent is 2.1 percentage points lower than the November figure of 47.2 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index registered 51.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the November reading of 50.9 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.2 percent is down 2.2 percentage points compared to November’s figure of 48.4 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 45.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points below the November reading of 46.6 percent.” This suggests manufacturing contracted in December.  This was close to the consensus forecast.  Note that prices are falling quickly.

US Services PMI In Contraction For 6th Straight Month In December- Following S&P Global's signal of a second straight month of contraction in US Manufacturing, this morning's final print for December's Services PMI was expected at 44.4 (the same level as the flash print) but in fact improved marginally from the flash print to 44.7 (still back near the August lows)... This is the sixth straight month of contraction for Services PMI. Combined with the Manufacturing data, that pushes the US Composite Index down to XXXX, the worst of all the major regions... Based on the Composite PMI, the picture for Q4 economic growth looks dismal...Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "US private sector firms brought 2022 to a close signalling marked obstacles to overcome with relation to the health of the economy. Contractions in output and new business were broad-based and gathered pace in December as customer unease led to dwindling demand and order postponements. "Despite weak demand conditions, firms continued to hire staff. Nonetheless, the pace of job creation was only slight as some firms turned their focus to filling temporary worker and long-held skilled jobs vacancies, whilst others reported instances of employees being laid off. "A notable development through the month was a stark easing in inflationary pressures across the private sector. Muted demand for inputs led to the least marked uptick in costs for over two years, while companies also saw a slower increase in selling prices in a bid to entice customers and boost sales. The pass through of cost savings in the form of customer discounts will likely signal further adjustments to inflation as we enter 2023."

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 204,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending December 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 225,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 221,000 to 220,500.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 10.5 million in November - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - The number of job openings was little changed at 10.5 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.1 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) changed little.The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November the employment report this Friday will be for December. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October. The number of job openings (black) were down 4% year-over-year. Quits were down 7% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

ADP: Private Employment Increased 235,000 in December - From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 235,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 7.3% Private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs in December and annual pay was up 7.3 percent year-over-year, according to the December ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).“The labor market is strong but fragmented, with hiring varying sharply by industry and establishment size,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Business segments that hired aggressively in the first half of 2022 have slowed hiring and in some cases cut jobs in the last month of the year. This was well above the consensus forecast of 145,000.  The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 200 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in December.

December Employment Report: 223 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS:   Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 21,000, from +284,000 to +263,000, and the change for November was revised down by 7,000, from +263,000 to +256,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 28,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels. I'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In December, the year-over-year change was 4.53 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year. Total payrolls increased by 223 thousand in December. Private payrolls increased by 220 thousand, and public payrolls increased 3 thousand. Payrolls for October and November were revised down 28 thousand, combined. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.3% in December, from 62.2% in November. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.1% from 59.9% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was decreased in December to 3.5% from 3.6% in November. This was above consensus expectations; however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 28,000 combined. 

December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues - If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few months are to be believed, a recession is near. And if that is the case, we ought to see the leading elements of the jobs report begin to roll over. One of them, the average manufacturing workweek, clearly has. Arguably so has temporary employment. Residential construction employment may have peaked. But total construction and manufacturing employment continued to increase through November’s report. So my focus as of this report is on those remaining leading components, as well as whether the deceleration in the 3-month moving average of jobs growth is continuing. As described below, the deceleration continues, also including wages, but the leading sectors have not materially deteriorated from the past few months.  Here’s my in depth synopsis.

• 223,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 220,000. Government jobs increased by 3,000. The three month moving average of growth declined further to 247,000.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report had its best month in quite awhile, increasing by 717,000 jobs. The above household number factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
• U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% to 3.5%.
• U6 underemployment rate also fell -0.2% to 6.5%.
• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined -0.3 hours to 40.6, and is down -1.0 hours from its February peak last year of 41.6 hours. This is recessionary.
• Manufacturing jobs increased 8,000, and are at a level higher than before the pandemic.
• Construction jobs increased 28,000, also at a level higher than before the pandemic. 
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, increased by 3,100.
• Temporary jobs, which until several months ago had been rising sharply, declined again, by 35,000.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined by 11,000 to 2,233,000, about 100,000 above its pre-pandemic level
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel, which was recorded at $28.10 in November, was revised downward by $-.09, and increased $.06 from that to $28.07, a 0.2% gain m/m, and up 5.0% YoY, vs. its 6.7% peak at the beginning of 2022.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined for the second month in a row, by -0.2% which is still above its level just before the pandemic.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers was unchanged, and is up 7.4% YoY. This metric has been decelerating nominally almost consistently for the past 16 months.  Compared with inflation through November, it is up only 0.2% YoY (recessions typically start when it crosses zero).
• Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 67,000, but are still about -6% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments added 26,300 jobs, but are still about -4% below their pre-pandemic peak. 
• Professional and business employment declined -6,000, the second poor reading in a row after last month’s measly increased of 1,000.
• Full time jobs decreased -1,000 in the household report.
• Part time jobs increased 689,,000 in the household report.
• The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons rose 190,000.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.2% to 62.3%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
• Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, declined -352,000 to 5.176 million, compared with 4.996 million in February 2020.
• October was revised downward by -21,000, and November was also revised downward by -7,000, for a net decrease of -28,000 jobs compared with previous reports. This is at least the second such downward revisions in a row.

SUMMARY: This report was mixed. There were many positive elements, including the unemployment and underemployment rates, labor force participation rate, and the absolute number of gains in jobs. The gains in the household report were the best in months. The leading sectors of manufacturing and construction employment continued to gain. It is nearly impossible to envision a recession beginning while that is still happening. On the other hand, the manufacturing workweek declined to recessionary levels (suggesting job cuts will be close behind), and temporary employment continued to decline. Aggregate hours worked declined for the second month in a row, and aggregate payrolls were stagnant. There were again downward revisions to previous months’ data. Wages increased at the lowest pace in nearly two years. This does not suggest to me that a recession is imminent, but it does suggest that deceleration in that direction has continued.

Comments on December Employment Report – McBride - -- With 4.50 million jobs added, 2022 was the 2nd best year for job growth in US history behind only 2021 with 6.74 million. The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. The participation rate increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%. Another solid report. Leisure and hospitality gained 67 thousand jobs in December. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 932 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 89% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 28 thousand and is now 153 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing added 8 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. In December, the year-over-year employment change was 4.50 million jobs. Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. However, seasonal retail hiring was down in 2022. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 98 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in December. This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a gain of 9.0 thousand jobs in December. Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in December to 82.4% from 82.3% in November, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.1% from 79.7% the previous month. Both are close to the pre-pandemic levels and indicate almost all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force. From the BLS report: "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 million, changed little in December. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in December to 3.878 million from 3.688 million in November. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.5% from 6.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and is the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) (series started in 1994). This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.069 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.215 million the previous month. This is below pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. The headline unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%, and U-6 declined to a record low at 6.5%. Overall, this was another solid employment report - and a strong year of job gains.

The Employment Release: The Business Cycle Assessed, Accounting for Labor Measurement Issues, Weekly Indicators  by Menzie Chinn - The employment situation release for December 2022 provides latest available monthly data on the economy’s conditions. Here’re a variety of labor market indicators:

• Figure 1: Civilian employment over age 16, FRED series CE16OV (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted to nonfarm payroll concept (red), nonfarm payroll employment, FRED series PAYEMS (tan), nonfarm payroll employment series adjusted to reflect preliminary benchmark revision by author (green), nonfarm payroll employment adjusted by Philadelphia Fed to reflect preliminary benchmark revision (pink squares), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) total covered employment, adjusted by Census X-13 by author (orange), QCEW adjusted by geometric moving average (sky blue), all expressed relative to 2021M12 values, all seasonally adjusted. Lilac shading denotes hypothesized (by Mr. Steven Kopits) 2022H1 peak-to-trough recession.  Source: CE16OV, PAYEMS from BLS via FRED, preliminary benchmarked series constructed by author using data from BLS, Philadelphia Fed, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept from BLS, QCEW from BLS, and author’s calculations.If you thought the household series was better measuring employment than the establishment, then — when assessing trends in the nonfarm sector — one would not find much difference in estimated change in employment from the end of 2021, when making the series compatible in terms of coverage (that is, tan line versus red line).Why is this the case? It’s because the civilian employment series (overall) jumped up in December. The extreme volatiliy in the household series, combined with substantial revisions, shows up in Figure 2. This is why macroeconomists tend to focus more on the establishment series than on the household series (Furman (2016); CEA (2017); Goto et al. (2021
• Figure 2: Change in nonfarm payroll employment from October release (green), from November release (tan), from December release (blue), and Bloomberg consensus (sky blue square); change in civilian employment from October release (purple), from November release (chartreuse), from December release (red), all in thousands, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, various releases, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. What do business cycle indicators look like, given the employment release? This is shown in Figure 3, below.
• Figure 3: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 1/5 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0.  Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (1/3/2023 release), and author’s calculations.Taken together, recognizing that the NBER BCDC focuses on nonfarm payroll employment and personal income ex-transfers, it seems that the economy retained momentum in November-December. JOLTS data suggested tight labor markets through November.I might also note that to the extent that the civilian employment series peaks before the NFP series (in the last four recessions, the civilian peaks before the NFP 50% of the time, and at the same time 50% of the time), then our fears of a recession having already starting in November are allayed.We have more insight from weekly economic indicators, which cover data through December 31st.
• 4: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% trend (green). Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, and author’s calculations.The WEI reading for the week ending 12/31 of 1.8% is interpretable as a y/y quarter growth of 1.8% if the 1.8% reading were to persist for an entire quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker reading of 2.0% is interpretable as a y/y growth rate of 2.0% for year ending 12/31. The Baumeister et al. reading of -0.1% is interpreted as a -0.1% growth rate in excess of long term trend growth rate. Average growth of US GDP over the 2000-19 period is about 2%, so this implies a 1.9% growth rate for the year ending 12/31.

Amazon To Fire 18,000 Workers As Tech Layoffs Surge -  Salesforce told employees early Wednesday that 10% of its workforce would be cut. And the layoff announcements keep coming, as Amazon told employees last night that thousands of jobs would be eliminated due to uncertain macroeconomic conditions.   Amazon CEO Andy Jassy published a memo on the company's blog about eliminating 18,000 jobs, many of which are concentrated in the firm's corporate ranks. Today, I wanted to share the outcome of these further reviews, which is the difficult decision to eliminate additional roles. Between the reductions we made in November and the ones we're sharing today, we plan to eliminate just over 18,000 roles. Several teams are impacted; however, the majority of role eliminations are in our Amazon Stores and PXT organizations.

South Carolina Supreme Court rules abortion protected under state constitution – -  South Carolina Supreme Court on Thursday struck down the state’s six-week abortion ban, ruling the privacy rights in the state constitution protect abortion access. The 3-2 decision allows abortion to remain legal in the state until 20 weeks of pregnancy, and is a setback for Republican lawmakers who had hoped this year to ban abortion after conception. The majority opinion noted that while the state may limit a person’s right to privacy “any such limitation must be reasonable” and “afford a woman sufficient time to determine she is pregnant and take reasonable steps to terminate that pregnancy.” The court said that six weeks is “quite simply, not a reasonable period of time for those two things to occur.” Four of the court’s five justices are registered Republicans, while Chief Justice Donald Beatty is a Democrat, and all were appointed by the Republican-controlled legislature. “Our decision today is neither ‘pro-choice’ nor ‘pro-life’; it merely recognizes that our state constitution grants every South Carolinian a right to privacy, equal protection, and due process of laws,” Beatty wrote in a concurring opinion. “This fundamental, constitutional mandate transcends politics and opinion.”

Homeless deaths surged across the US in 2022 due to extreme weather, economic hardship - Numerous states throughout the US witnessed a sharp rise in the number of homeless and deaths of people experiencing homelessness in 2022. David Cooper huddles up with gloves, hand warmers and layers of blankets in an attempt to stay warm while living on the street as temperatures with wind chill hovered in the single digits in Portland, Ore., on Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022. [AP Photo/Claire Rush] Due to the lifting of eviction moratoriums put in place at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the soaring prices in the cost of living, the ranks of the homeless and those living in precarious conditions are swelling, putting tens of thousands at risk of a premature death. According to the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago, 500,000 to 600,000 people in the US experience homelessness on any given night; approximately one-third of them sleep on the streets. Strong winter storms over the last two weeks and extreme weather throughout the year made environmental conditions deadly for those living unsheltered and in substandard housing. The recent storms that battered the eastern half of the US have claimed the lives of nearly 60 people, some of whom were homeless and found in snow banks or in vehicles. One of the homeless victims, 57-year-old Charles Wilson Ligon Jr., was attempting to make it home to his family in Tennessee from Louisiana on foot. He was found by hunters in southern Mississippi last Monday morning frozen to death. Many homeless shelters saw a sharp rise in the number of people they served in December due to the harsh winter conditions. Warming shelters have become places of refuge for the homeless, but many of them do not open their doors until the temperature drops to 32-30 degrees Fahrenheit, already dangerous considering that hypothermia and frostbite can set in at 50 degrees. The National Weather Service warned that last week’s cold front could see temperature drops of 20 degrees or more in just a few hours. Kyle Knutson, the Social Services Director at The Salvation Army in Corpus Christi, Texas, told local news station KIII that nearly half of the 43 official homeless deaths in the city this year were the result of cold weather. However, the winter weather this year was only one of a number of causes of death for the homeless. In many states, the death count was higher than in previous years. Causes of death in addition to exposure to the elements include overdose due to substance use, homicide and treatable health conditions. December 21 is recognized annually as National Homeless Persons’ Memorial Day, a tribute to those who have died while experiencing homelessness and whose lives and passing might otherwise have gone unrecognized. Vigils were set up around the country in communities large and small to remember those who lost their lives this year. On the West Coast and throughout the Midwest, records were set in the numbers of deaths of the homeless population. In Seattle and King County, Washington, more than 270 people died this year, the highest number recorded in 20 years, ranging in age from 2 to 80 years old. While making up 12 percent of the country’s population, California now accounts for 30 percent of the homeless population, with the US Department of Housing and Community Development estimating that over 172,000 residents experienced homelessness this year alone. California also saw the country’s largest increase in its homeless population over any other state. In Southern California, recorded deaths among the homeless population in San Diego County increased over 7 percent from 2021 to a total of 574 deaths, up from 536 last year and 357 the year before. Ventura County, northwest of Los Angeles, saw 158 homeless residents die last year while Santa Barbara on the central coast lost 38 in the last two years. In San Francisco, over 200 people died in 2022, many from accidental drug overdoses. Last April, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health found that nearly 2,000 homeless people died between April 2020 and March 2021, marking a 56 percent increase in deaths compared to the previous year before the pandemic began. In Maricopa County, Arizona, the death toll has also risen for people who experienced homelessness. The more than 700 people who died without permanent shelter in 2022 represented a 42 percent increase over 2021. Another 450 people could be added to that figure, although local law enforcement has not determined whether those people were homeless.

Teachers are on alert for inevitable cheating after release of ChatGPT --Teachers and professors across the education system are in a near-panic as they confront a revolution in artificial intelligence that could allow for cheating on a grand scale.The source is ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence bot released a few weeks ago that allows users to ask questions and, moments later, receive well-written answers that are eerily human. Almost immediately, educators began experimenting with the tool. While the bot’s answers to academic questions weren’t perfect, they wereawfully close to what teachers would expect from many of their students. How long, educators wonder, will it be before students begin using the site to write essays or computer code for them? Māra Corey, an English teacher at Irondale Senior High School in New Brighton, Minn., said she discussed the matter with her students almost immediately so they could understand how using the tool could impede their learning.“Some of them were shocked that I knew about it,” she said. She didn’t worry that the conversation might plant bad ideas in their heads. “Hoping that teenagers don’t notice the new flashy thing that will save them time is a fool’s errand.” Within days of its launching, more than a million people had tried ChatGPT. Some asked innocent questions, such as how to explain to a 6-year-old that Santa Claus isn’t real. Other queries demanded complex responses, such as finishing a piece of tricky software code.For some students, the temptation is obvious and enormous. One senior at a Midwestern school, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of expulsion, said he had already used the text generator twice to cheat on his schoolwork. He got the idea after seeing people expound on Twitter about how powerful the word generator is after it was released on Nov. 30.He was staring at an at-home computer-science quiz that asked him to define certain terms. He put them into the ChatGPT box and, almost immediately, the definitions came back. He wrote them by hand onto his quiz paper and submitted the assignment.  Later that day, he used the generator to help him write a piece of code for a homework question for the same class. He was stumped, but ChatGPT wasn’t. It popped out a string of text that worked perfectly, he said. After that, the student said, he was hooked, and plans to use ChatGPT to cheat on exams instead of Chegg, a homework help website he’s used in the past.

Federal judge clears the way for West Virginia law restricting transgender athletes - A federal judge on Thursday sided with West Virginia’s law that restricts transgender girls from playing on sports teams that match their gender identity, finding that the state legislature’s definition of “girl” and “woman” is constitutional. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of 11-year-old Becky Pepper-Jackson, a middle schooler looking to try out for her school’s girls cross-country team. Lawyers on behalf of Pepper-Jackson argued the West Virginia law discriminates on the “basis of sex” and “transgender status” — violating both the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause and Title IX, a federal education law that prevents sex-based discrimination. Her lawyers also alleged that the law was “targeted at, and intended only to affect, girls who are transgender.” “The record does make clear that, in passing this law, the legislature intended to prevent transgender girls from playing on girls’ sports teams,” Southern District of West Virginia Judge Joseph R. Goodwin wrote in the ruling. “But acting to prevent transgender girls, along with all other biological males, from playing on girls’ teams is not unconstitutional if the classification is substantially related to an important government interest.” Goodwin temporarily blocked the law in July of 2021, but now the state will be able to enforce it. The Clinton-appointee on Thursday conceded that: “I have no doubt that H.B. 3293 aimed to politicize participation in school athletics for transgender students.” But Goodwin added that “there is not a sufficient record of legislative animus.” Goodwin boiled down the case to an issue over the state’s definitions of “girl” and “woman” as based on biological sex. He also said the law “which largely mirrors Title IX” does not violate Title IX because transgender girls are not entirely excluded from school sports. “This is not only about simple biology, but fairness for women’s sports, plain and simple,” Attorney General Patrick Morrisey said in a statement in response to the opinion. “Opportunities for girls and women on the field are precious and we must safeguard that future. Protecting these opportunities is important, because when biological males compete in a women’s event women and girls lose their opportunity to shine.”

Easier grading and graduation shortcuts may not be hurting students - Many teachers complain that inflated grades, reduced homework and quick-and-easy credit recovery courses are leaving holes in students’ educations. I was convinced that the only reason superintendents and school boards embrace such devices is to inflate graduation rates and make their districts look good. The debate and research about this are far from over. But I recently have found evidence that making it easier to get that credential has neither diminished learning, at least on average, nor reduced the value of graduating from high school. Even a diploma won cheaply can have a good effect on a student’s future education and job prospects. There is no question the U.S. high school graduation rate has been increasing. Tulane economist Douglas N. Harris said the portion of students getting high school certification, after hovering around 85 percent for several years, has had “the fastest rise since the early 1900s.” “Between 2001 and 2016, the percentage of 18-24 year-olds with a credential increased to 93% — an 8-percentage-point increase,” Harris said in a report published in 2020 by the Brookings Institution.. The rise coincided with the adoption of the federal No Child Left Behind Act, which forced states to set specific graduation rate targets. The study found evidence that the law at least partially caused the graduation rate increase. “States with more districts below the statewide NCLB-induced graduation thresholds saw larger increases in graduation,” he said. “Moreover, districts that were below the threshold saw the greatest graduation increases, within their respective states.” A follow-up study by Harris and other collaborators reported that the graduation rate remained high in 2021 despite the pandemic, possibly because students close to getting diplomas kept attending school, online or otherwise, with encouragement from family, friends and teachers. Harris told me that a widespread easing of graduation requirements because of the health crisis also had an effect. Advertisement Harris’s 2020 study looked closely at online credit-recovery courses, which can satisfy some graduation requirements in a few weeks. He found that the increased use of those shortcuts was “too small to explain the overall increase in high school graduation.”

Free Expression Statement adopted by the MIT faculty 12/21/22  (excerpts) The influential 1949 Lewis Report observed that MIT’s mission was “to encourage initiative, to promote the spirit of free and objective inquiry, to recognize and provide opportunities for unusual interests and aptitudes,” and to develop “individuals who will contribute creatively to our society.” With a tradition of celebrating provocative thinking, controversial views, and nonconformity, MIT unequivocally endorses the principles of freedom of expression and academic freedom. Free expression is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition of a diverse and inclusive community. We cannot have a truly free community of expression if some perspectives can be heard and others cannot. Learning from a diversity of viewpoints, and from the deliberation, debate, and dissent that accompany them, are essential ingredients of academic excellence.Free expression promotes creativity by affirming the ability to exchange ideas without constraints. It not only facilitates individual autonomy and self-fulfillment, it provides for participation in collective decision-making and is essential to the search for truth and justice. Free expression is enhanced by the doctrine of academic freedom, which protects both intramural and extramural expression without institutional censorship or discipline. Academic freedom promotes scholarly rigor and the testing of ideas by protecting research, publication, and teaching from interference.MIT does not protect direct threats, harassment, plagiarism, or other speech that falls outside the boundaries of the First Amendment. Moreover, the time, place, and manner of protected expression, including organized protests, may be restrained so as not to disrupt the essential activities of the Institute. A commitment to free expression includes hearing and hosting speakers, including those whose views or opinions may not be shared by many members of the MIT community and may be harmful to some. This commitment includes the freedom to criticize and peacefully protest speakers to whom one may object, but it does not extend to suppressing or restricting such speakers from expressing their views. Debate and deliberation of controversial ideas are hallmarks of the Institute’s educational and research missions and are essential to the pursuit of truth, knowledge, equity, and justice.

Ron DeSantis shakes up liberal university, appoints six members to the New College of Florida -  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday made six new appointments to the New College of Florida Board of Trustees, including Manhattan Senior Fellow Christopher F. Rufo. Rufo's work has been featured on PBS, Netflix, and international television and has been notable for challenging critical race theory. The New College of Florida in Sarasota, is a top-ranked public liberal arts college and is the designated honors college of the state university system. DeSantis' news press secretary Bryan Griffin sent a statement to Fox News Digital claiming that the academic institution has been "captured by a political ideology that puts trendy, truth-relative concepts above learning." "All of these appointees have a firsthand understanding of the Florida education system as a product of their work with us and the Florida Department of Education on other important initiatives. We are grateful to them for lending their time and expertise to the benefit of Florida’s students," the DeSantis office told Fox News Digital. "The New College of Florida is a public institution with a statutorily stated mission of 'provid[ing] a quality education.' Unfortunately, like so many colleges and universities in America, this institution has been completely captured by a political ideology that puts trendy, truth-relative concepts above learning." The statement added, "In particular, New College of Florida has reached a moment of critical mass, wherein low student enrollment and other financial stresses have emerged from its skewed focus and impractical course offerings."

Head of Varsity Blues college admissions bribery scandal gets 3 1/2 years - Rick Singer, the man behind the notorious "Varsity Blues" college admissions bribery scandal, was sentenced Wednesday to 3 1/2 years in prison and ordered to pay more than $19 million — about half as restitution to the IRS and the other half as forfeitures of money and assets.In addition to the prison sentence, Singer also must serve three years of supervised release.The sentence is less than the six years prosecutors had sought for the 62-year-old Singer. The defense, on the other hand, called for little to no prison time. Singer's lawyers claim he already lost everything after the scandal came to light in March 2019 in Boston. In court filings, Singer also pleaded for leniency, saying he has "woken up every day feeling shame, remorse, and regret." About two-thirds of the more than 50 Varsity Blues defendants were sentenced to three months or less of prison time, with many serving no time at all. Singer pleaded guilty in 2019 to charges of conspiracy to commit racketeering, conspiracy to commit money laundering, obstruction of justice and conspiracy to defraud the United States. He raked in some $25 million by selling what he liked to call "a side door" into elite institutions such as Yale University, Georgetown University and the University of Southern California to dozens of clients.The scheme involved bribing college coaches to take students as athletic recruits, regardless if they were mediocre or had never even played the sport. Singer created completely fake résumés and inserted photographs of students' faces onto images of real athletes. His services also included fixing students' wrong answers on college admissions tests or having someone else sit for the students to take the test in their place.The defense says Singer is also the reason that prosecutors were able to charge some of his former clients, who included actors Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin as well as business titans and big-shot lawyers.He secretly recorded hundreds of phone calls with some 30 co-conspirators, getting them to incriminate themselves by acknowledging the payments and bribes they paid. His ruse was to tell them that the IRS was auditing the fake charitable foundation that he used to launder bribe money.

N.Y. Fed warns of debt crunch coming if Biden's student-loan plan fails -- Student borrowers in the U.S. are struggling to keep up with other kinds of debt even while college payments are frozen, and a surge in delinquencies is likely if the government's debt-relief plan fails, according to a new study. Among borrowers who'd be eligible for President Biden's forgiveness plan, which is mired in a Supreme Court challenge, there's been a "stark increase" in delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans during recent quarters, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York wrote in a paper. "These missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations even though student loan payments are not required," the New York Fed analysts wrote. "We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief."

This doctor prescribes ketamine to thousands online. It’s all legal. -    In the past two years, Scott Smith has become licensed to practice medicine in almost every U.S. state for a singular purpose: treating depressed patients online and prescribing them ketamine. The sedative, which is sometimes abused as a street drug, has shown promise in treating depression and anxiety. But instead of dispensing it in a clinic or under the strict protocols endorsed by the Food and Drug Administration, the South Carolina physician orders generic lozenges online for patients to take at home. He says this practice, though controversial, has benefited more than half of his 3,000 patients. “People are beating a path to my door,” he said in an interview.Smith is part of a wave of doctors and telehealth start-ups capitalizing on the pandemic-inspired federal public health emergency declaration, which waived a requirement for health-care providers to see patients in person to prescribe controlled substances. The waiver has enabled Smith to build a national ketamine practice from his home outside Charleston — and fueled a boom among telehealth companies that have raised millions from investors.As the urgency around covid-19 subsides, many expect the waiver to expire this spring. Companies are lobbying to extend it, and patients are bracing for a disruption to purely virtual care.The Drug Enforcement Administration in 2020 temporarily waived the requirement that prescribers meet patients in person before treating them with several classes of drugs, from opioids to certain treatments for depression. A DEA spokesperson said the agency is working on regulations to allow this permanently, but declined to provide details or a timeline.

COVID-19 virus can affect vision and depth perception, finds study - Researchers are investigating whether the COVID virus can affect vision and depth-perception of those infected. The study, co-led by Griffith University's Menzies Health Institute and South Korea's Center for Convergent Research for Emerging Virus Infection, Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology, aims to understand how SARS-CoV-2 affects the eyes and whether it could serve as a virus infection route. It found the eyes and the trigeminal nerves are susceptible to the virus and that (in animal models) SARS-CoV-2 can infect the eye through the respiratory tract, via the brain. Principal Research Leader and co-lead author Prof Suresh Mahalingam said the virus can begin to affect vision when inflammation of the optic nerves, abnormal fluid build-up, and immune cell infiltration cause the retina to get thicker. "The virus can infect the eye through nerve tissues at the back of the eye that play a role in the visual aspects of the eye and sending signals for visual purposes," Prof Mahalingam said. "The result of this retinal inflammation was a reduction in depth perception due to blurred vision." This blurred vision does appear to be symptomatic only, not a permanent degeneration of the eye tissue. It is also only likely to affect a very small number of people. Griffith University Ph.D. student Mr. Ng Wern Hann said that while a lot of COVID research has been focused on respiratory infection, particularly in the lungs and nasal region, there has not been much focus on the eyes. "We found the virus can indeed infect the eye through a normal intranasal approach, but also if droplets of the virus make direct contact with the eye," he said. "The ACE2 receptor is what the virus attaches to in order to infect a particular cell in a tissue or organ, and this receptor is found in abundance in the lungs, tonsils, nasal cavity, kidneys and heart, which is why a lot of reports have been published for those organs, but we found ACE2 receptors are also present in the eye, therefore facilitating infection." The findings published in Nature Communications give new insights into COVID-19 disease and may facilitate the development of treatment strategies for patients.

Weak antibody response to COVID vaccine tied to infections in cancer patients--Two studies published late last week discuss COVID-19 infection in cancer patients, with one tying an undetectable SARS-CoV-2 antibody response after vaccination to greater risk of breakthrough infection and hospitalization, and the other finding that vaccination can activate T cells for a more durable immune response in patients with two types of blood cancer. In England, a team led by University of Oxford researchers analyzed 4,249 SARS-CoV-2 antibody test results from 3,555 adult cancer patients and 294,230 results from 225,272 people without cancer after completion of a primary COVID-19 vaccine series from Sep 1, 2021, to Mar 4, 2022. The research was published in JAMA Oncology.  Of the tests from cancer patients, 2,313 were conducted after a second vaccine dose, and 1,936 were done after a third dose. Among the general population, 230,417 tests were conducted after a second dose, and 63,813 were done after a third dose.  Relative to the general population, cancer patients were more likely to have no detectable antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein after at least two vaccine doses (4.7% vs 0.1% of test results).  Leukemia and lymphoma patients had the lowest antibody concentrations. After adjustment, patients with no detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were at much higher risk for breakthrough COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR], 3.05) and hospitalization (OR, 6.48) than those with detectable antibodies. In both groups, recipients of a third vaccine dose had significantly higher antibody levels than two-dose recipients (11,146.5 vs 8,765.0 units per milliliter [U/mL] in the cancer group and 23,667.0 vs 12,126.0 U/mL in the general population).In Germany, University of Freiburg researchers led a study of the immune responses of 60 COVID-naïve patients with the blood cancers B cell lymphoma or multiple myeloma who had received three COVID-19 vaccine doses. The study was published in Nature Cancer.Participants were followed from before their first vaccine dose in spring 2021 to about 41 days after their third dose, up to January 2022. All patients except two were in remission. Their results were compared with those of 60 healthy matched healthcare workers.Almost all participants marshaled strong T cell responses to the spike protein of the Delta and Omicron variants. "We conclude that COVID-19 vaccination can induce broad antiviral immunity including ultrapotent neutralizing antibodies with high avidity in different hematologic malignancies," the researchers wrote.This finding could be why breakthrough infections were mild or moderate, "even in study participants who had been unable to form any specific antibodies after vaccination because of their therapy," co-lead author Christine Greil, PhD, of the University of Freiburg, said in a Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat (LMU) Munchen news release.

Effective vaccination strategy using SARS-CoV-2 spike cocktail against Omicron and other variants of concern Nature. The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant harbors more than 30 mutations in its spike (S) protein. Circulating Omicron subvariants, particularly BA5 and other variants of concern (VOCs), show increased resistance to COVID-19 vaccines that target the original S protein, calling for an urgent need for effective vaccines to prevent multiple SARS-CoV-2 VOCs. Here, we evaluated the neutralizing activity and protection conferred by a BA1-S subunit vaccine when combined with or used as booster doses after, administration of wild-type S protein (WT-S). A WT-S/BA1-S cocktail, or WT-S prime and BA1-S boost, induced significantly higher neutralizing antibodies against pseudotyped Omicron BA1, BA2, BA2.12.1, and BA5 subvariants, and similar or higher neutralizing antibodies against the original SARS-CoV-2, than the WT-S protein alone. The WT-S/BA1-S cocktail also elicited higher or significantly higher neutralizing antibodies than the WT-S-prime-BA1-S boost, WT-S alone, or BA1-S alone against pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta VOCs, and SARS-CoV, a closely related beta-coronavirus using the same receptor as SARS-CoV-2 for viral entry. By contrast, WT-S or BA1-S alone failed to induce potent neutralizing antibodies against all these viruses. Similar to the WT-S-prime-BA1-S boost, the WT-S/BA1-S cocktail completely protected mice against the lethal challenge of a Delta variant with negligible weight loss. Thus, we have identified an effective vaccination strategy that elicits potent, broadly, and durable neutralizing antibodies against circulating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants, other VOCs, original SARS-CoV-2, and SARS-CoV. These results will provide useful guidance for developing efficacious vaccines that inhibit current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

2022 ends with looming risk of a new coronavirus variant, health experts warn  — As the world enters a new year, many public health and infectious disease experts predict that monitoring for new coronavirus variants will be an increasingly important part of Covid-19 mitigation efforts – and some are turning their attention to a surge in cases in China. Subvariants of the Omicron coronavirus variant continue to circulate globally, and “we’re seeing Omicron do what viruses do, which is it picks up mutations along the way that helps it evade a little bit of immunity that’s induced by previous infection or vaccination,” said Andrew Pekosz, a microbiologist and immunologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore. “We haven’t seen any major jumps in terms of Omicron evolution in some time,” he said. But “it’s getting to that stage where it’s something that we have to continue to monitor.”In the United States, the Omicron subvariants XBB.1.5, BQ.1.1, BQ.1, BA.5 and XBB are causing almost all Covid-19 infections, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. For this week, the CDC estimates that XBB.1.5 now causes 40.5% of cases in the US, followed by BQ.1.1 at 26.9%; BQ.1 at 18.3%; BA.5 at 3.7%; and XBB at 3.6%.“SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is constantly changing and accumulating mutations in its genetic code over time. New variants of SARS-CoV-2 are expected to continue to emerge,” CDC researchers write in their data tracker. “Some variants will emerge and disappear, while others will emerge and continue to spread and may replace previous variants.” Omicron’s offshoots appear to dominate globally as well, but as the coronavirus continues to spread – especially in China after Beijing’s rapid easing of restrictions – there is now concern about where Covid-19 trends could be heading in 2023 and the risk of new variants emerging. “And that, of course, has led to the CDC’s very recent announcement that they are going to oblige people who come to this country from China to be tested and test negative before they can come into the country.” US health officials announced Wednesday that, starting January 5, travelers from China will be required to show a negative Covid-19 test result before flying to the country. Passengers traveling to the US from China will need to get tested no more than two days before flying and present proof of the negative test to their airline before boarding.

CDC reports a new strain of omicron taking over in the U.S. - A new version of omicron has taken hold in the U.S., according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The subvariant of omicron, named XBB.1.5, has raised concerns about another potential wave of Covid cases following the busy holiday travel season. The CDC projected Friday that about 40% of confirmed U.S. Covid cases are caused by the XBB.1.5 strain, up from 20% a week ago. In the Northeast, about 75% of confirmed cases are reported to be XBB.1.5. It’s not clear yet where this version of omicron came from, but it appears to be spreading quickly here. There’s no indication it causes more severe illness than any other omicron virus, Dr. Barbara Mahon, director of CDC’s Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, told NBC News. While overall Covid hospitalizations are rising around the country, areas such as the Northeast that have seen high levels of the new variant have not experienced a disproportionate increase in hospitalizations, Mahon said.“We’re seeing hospitalizations have been notching up overall across the country,” she said. “They don’t appear to be notching up more in the areas that have more XBB.1.5.”The seven-day average of daily Covid hospitalizations reached 42,140 on Friday, an increase of 4.2% from two weeks previously, according to an NBC News tally. The seven-day average of daily intensive care unit admissions has also risen to 5,125 per day, an increase of more than 9% from two weeks ago. There’s a lot that’s still unknown about the latest subvariant, including whether it’s more contagious than other forms of omicron, Mahon said.Other scientists worry that XB.1.5 is even better at getting around the antibodies we’ve built up from Covid vaccines and previous infection from the many different types of omicron that have spread since last December, including the original BA.1 and the more recent BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 subvariants. The XBB.1.5 is a relative of the omicron XBB variant, which is a recombinant of the omicron BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75 subvariants. Combined, XBB and XBB.1.5 make up 44% of cases in the U.S., crowding out other versions of omicron.

Could new Omicron variant XBB.1.5 fuel further Covid infections? - Scientists have raised concerns about a new Covid variant that is spreading fast in the US and threatening to cause further waves of infection. It’s known as XBB.1.5. It’s one of the latest descendants of Omicron, the highly transmissible version of Covid that caused cases to surge in the UK last winter. Offshoots of Omicron have dominated global Covid infections ever since. XBB.1.5 evolved from the XBB variant of Omicron, itself a fusion of two different BA.2 variants. The variant seems to have arisen in or around New York state in late October. At the end of December, the number of cases in the US more than doubled in a week. It now accounts for about 40% of all Covid infections in the US. Hospitalisations are rising in New York, raising fears that XBB.1.5 is about to cause further waves of illness as it spreads to other countries. Some US estimates suggest that XBB.1.5 is spreading more than twice as fast as the BQ.1.1 variant, which is one of the most common variants found in the UK. The variant has an unusual mutation known as F486P that is helping it spread. The mutation changes part of the Covid virus that many antibodies from vaccination or previous infection target. The change makes the antibodies less effective at neutralising the virus. The parent variant, XBB, has a different mutation at the same position. This makes XBB good at evading immune defences too, but the mutation comes with a cost: the virus cannot latch on to human cells as effectively, so the virus is actually less infectious. The XBB.1.5 offshoot suffers no such handicap: the F486P mutation allows it to evade antibodies without compromising how well it attaches to human cells. In fact, it binds to them even more strongly than XBB, driving up its infectivity. “The mutation can give that immune evasion without the cost to infectivity and that’s why it’s become so successful,” says Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge. Scientists in the UK analyse the genetics of only a fraction of Covid samples now, so there’s some uncertainty around XBB.1.5. But the variant has been detected here, and surveillance suggests it makes up at least 4% of Covid viruses being sequenced. There is no evidence that XBB.1.5 causes more severe disease than other Omicron variants. But the fact that it is spreading fast is worrisome, as the virus is more likely to reach vulnerable people who could be hospitalised or die from the infection, especially if they have not received their latest booster. That is the concern. In the US, scientists suspect XBB.1.5 is at least partly responsible for the rise in hospital admissions in New York, though cold weather and indoor gathering will also contribute. It is unclear whether the variant will drive a big surge in the UK, but some rise is anticipated. “It might drive an increase in cases, but I’m not convinced this will necessarily cause an explosive wave of infections in the UK,” says Gupta. “I don’t think there’s any cause to panic. The main thing we worry about is the severity of the disease, and there is no evidence that it’s more severe. People should, however, make sure they are up to date with their vaccines.” Paradoxically, the winter wave of influenza and other nasty respiratory viruses that are doing the rounds might blunt any spike in Covid. If you catch a virus it should activate the innate immune system, the body’s frontline defences against pathogens, offering at least some protection against viruses that follow soon after. So if you caught flu or another respiratory virus over Christmas, your immune defences might resist a brief encounter with Covid.

New coronavirus strain causes 'double-whammy' of concern for Chicago epidemiologist - Just in time for the new year, a new omicron strain is spreading fast in parts of the U.S. All eyes are on the northeastern part of the country, where the new strain already accounts for the majority of new cases. The number of cases in the Chicago region have double in the last week. The name XBB.1.5 may be new, but this coronavirus variant spreads in a familiar way. "We've seen the prevalence increasing in the U.S. week over week," said University of Illinois at Chicago epidemiologist Dr. Katrine Wallace. "XBB.1.5 seems to have an ability to evade our immune defenses, but it also has an additional mutation that makes it more capable to bind to our cells, so it's kind of like a double whammy." The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates the new variant makes up about 40 % of new cases in the country, and about 75% of cases in the Northeast. "In epidemiology, we look at the doubling time in the prevalence to see how fast a variant is spreading and this one went from 20% last week to about 40% this week in the U.S." In Illinois and surrounding states, the new strain accounts for 6% of cases, but Wallace points out that percentage doubled in a week. "My guess is that we will see the same growth here, and we will probably be seeing an increase incases of COVID-19 as well," she said. The comforting news, if you ask Wallace, is that the updated vaccines target omicron. "Some data came out last week in the New England Journal of Medicine showing that his bivalent booster significantly increases the antibodies against specifically XBB and some other variants," Wallace said.

Omicron offshoot XBB.1.5 could drive new Covid-19 surge in US -- For weeks, scientists have been watching a slew of Omicron descendants duke it out for dominance of Covid-19 transmission in the United States, with the BQs – BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 – seeming to edge out all the others to claim a slight lead. The result has been a gradual rise in cases and hospitalizations that never seemed to reach the peaks of this summer’s BA.5 wave and was certainly nothing like the tsunami of illness caused by the original Omicron strain a year ago. But on Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Covid-19 variant dashboard revealed a new dark horse that could soon sweep the field: XBB.1.5. The CDC estimates that XBB.1.5 has more than doubled its share of the Covid-19 pie each week for the last four, rising from about 4% to 41% of new infections over the month of December. In the Northeast, the CDC estimates, XBB.1.5 is causing 75% of new cases.  Virologists and epidemiologists say this Omicron sublineage has features that give it the potential to drive a new surge of Covid-19 cases in the US, although it’s still unclear how large that wave will be and whether it could send many more people to the hospital. For all the recent concern that a new Covid-19 threat could come from China’s ongoing surge, experts point out that XBB.1.5 appears to have arisen in the United States. It was first detected in New York and Connecticut in late October, according to GISAID, a global effort to catalog and track variants of the coronavirus. Trevor Bedford has pegged its effective reproductive number – the number of new infections expected to be caused by each infected person – at about 1.6, roughly 40% higher than its next closest competitor. XBB.1.5 is the product of recombination: Two descendants of BA.2, the subvariant that drove a modest wave of cases in the US in April, swapped pieces of their genetic code, resulting in 14 new mutations to the virus’ spike proteins compared with BA.2, and a new sublineage, XBB.  Dr. David Ho, professor of microbiology and immunology at Columbia University, recently tested viruses engineered to have the spikes of XBB and XBB.1 as well as BQ.1 and BQ 1.1 in his lab against antibodies from the blood of people who’d been infected, who were vaccinated with the original and new bivalent vaccines, and who’d been both infected and vaccinated. His team also tested 23 monoclonal antibody treatments against these new sublineages. He found that XBB.1 was the slipperiest of them all. It was 63 times less likely to be neutralized by antibodies in the blood of infected and vaccinated people than BA.2 and 49 times less likely to be neutralized compared with BA.4 and BA.5. In terms of immune evasion, Ho says, these variants have shifted as far away from the antibodies we have made to use against them as the original Omicron variant was from the Covid-19 viruses that preceded it roughly a year ago.He calls these levels of immune evasion “alarming” and said they could further compromise the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines. His findings were recently published in the journal Cell.

After holiday surge, viral illnesses could derail school, work plans - Christmas would have been the first time in a year that Lorenzo Simpson saw extended family members because of pandemic cancellations, but he woke up that day with a sore throat and a sinking feeling. Covid positive for the second time, the 30-year-old isolated in his Hyattsville home with supplies from CVS instead of holiday helpings. The coronavirus, combined with lingering flu, RSV and even strep A cases, derailed many a holiday celebration this year — with more disappointment to come as new infections lead to missed school and work. In addition, a new and more contagious variant of the coronavirus is widely circulating in the Northeast, leading to new infections better at evading immunity from vaccinations and previous illness, public health experts say. Schools, which have seen surges in illness after the holidays throughout the pandemic, are aiming to reduce absences with required testing and immunizations. The variant XBB.1.5 rapidly emerged as the dominant strain in the Northeast in recent weeks, according to modeling data from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. In the region that includes D.C., Maryland and Virginia, the variant makes up nearly half of new infections, followed by BQ variants. “This is what happens when a variant gets displaced. A variant is not going to displaced by a variant that moves more slowly,” As with previous strains, monoclonal antibodies are ineffective against XBB, but Sehgal stressed that the bivalent booster, updated in the fall, still offers some protection against the new variant. “Not perfect but still quite good and certainly better than not being boosted at all … Yet we’ve still seen pitifully low uptake of the bivalent booster.”

Meet the 'Kraken' COVID variant—the dominant new Omicron' escape strain' experts say is the most transmissible yet - Experts are eyeing the new Omicron strain XBB.1.5—dubbed “Kraken” on the Twitterverse—for its potential to cause the next major COVID wave, thanks to its immune-escape ability and ultrahigh transmissibility.The World Health Organization’s technical advisory group on virus evolution is working on a risk assessment on the variant—the most transmissible yet, Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for COVID-19 response at the World Health Organization, said at a Wednesday news conference. Her organization has also asked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to report on the risks of the new variant, since XBB.1.5 has “rapidly replaced other variants” in some European countries and in the northeast U.S.Both reports are expected in the coming days. Right now, experts are predominantly concerned with Kraken‘s ability to quickly spread and overtake other strains of Omicron.Researchers are looking into whether XBB.1.5 might have other concerning properties, like the ability to cause more severe disease. So far, there is no evidence of this, Van Kerkhove said.What is known, however, is that Kraken is continuing Omicron’s legacy of spawning variants that spread—and evade immunity from prior infection and vaccination—with increasing ease. Here’s what we know so far about the latest Omicron spawn to make headlines. While it’s only recently taken off globally, XBB.1.5 has been around for a while. It was first detected—in the U.S.—on Oct. 22, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).XBB.1.5 is a “recombinant”—or combination—of two spinoffs of Omicron BA.2, which was known as “stealth Omicron” because it was difficult for labs to differentiate it from Delta.So far, the U.S. is seeing the most notable growth of the new variant. This week, the CDC projected that it comprised around 75% of infections in regions 1 and 2, which include Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Nationally, it was projected to be behind 41% of cases.

XBB COVID variant presents a unique threat: study - While the U.S. and other countries focus on the increasing footprint of sub-subvariants of the omicron iteration of COVID-19, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, healthcare systems here and around the world might also want to keep a wary eye on yet another sub-subvariant: XBB. Japanese researchers say in a preprint study posted Tuesday that XBB exhibits a unique path into existence not seen before in COVID-19 variants, and this gives it more of a “profound resistance to antiviral humoral immunity induced by breakthrough infections of prior Omicron subvariants.” Their findings (PDF) were posted on medRxiv, a website featuring studies that have not yet been peer reviewed. XBB was first identified by researchers at Peking University in Beijing in September, and one of the authors of that study said that “XBB is currently the most antibody-evasive strain tested.” The study, unveiled Tuesday by researchers with the University of Tokyo, bolsters that assessment, stating that “to our knowledge, this is the first documented example of a SARS-CoV-2 variant increasing its fitness through recombination rather than single mutations.” Recombination means the joining of variants that arise from two genetically distinct parental strains, creating opportunities for a virus to adapt to, and escape from, antibodies and other genetic roadblocks, be they produced by scientists or nature. Recombination presented a significant challenge in the early days of the fight against HIV/AIDS. Kevin Kavanagh, M.D., is the president and founder of the patient advocacy organization Health Watch USA and has kept a close eye on COVID-19 throughout the pandemic. Kavanagh told Fierce Healthcare that “the most disturbing finding in the study is that this virus is a recombinant virus where two different genomes or genetic materials from viruses were recombined, as opposed to a chance mutation.” Kavanagh pointed out that the U.S. healthcare system currently deals with the tripledemic of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and COVID-19. Kavanagh said how, in the summer, Texas Children’s Hospital had to deal with about 25 cases where children had been infected by RSV and COVID-19 at the same time. “If viruses can start swapping genetic material, then the sky is the limit on the number of variants and the various characteristics which may be produced,” says Kavanagh. XBB is not as lethal as the delta variant, the deadliest iteration of COVID-19, but it is as lethal as BA.2.75, according to the study by Japanese researchers. The study notes that XBB first emerged in the summer in India and its neighboring countries, but health systems should not consider XBB a regional problem, and “this variant has a potential to spread worldwide in the near future.”

Omicron XBB.1.5 is most transmissible subvariant, WHO says - The XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant that’s currently dominating the U.S. is the most contagious version of Covid-19 yet, but it doesn’t appear to make people sicker, according to the World Health Organization. Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead, said global health officials are worried about how quickly the subvariant is spreading in the northeastern U.S. The number of people infected with XBB.1.5 has been doubling in the U.S. about every two weeks, making it the most common variant circulating in the country. “It is the most transmissible subvariant that has been detected yet,” Van Kerkhove told reporters during a press conference in Geneva on Wednesday. “The reason for this are the mutations that are within this subvariant of omicron allowing this virus to adhere to the cell and replicate easily.” It has been detected in 29 countries so far but it could be even more widespread, Van Kerkhove said. Tracking Covid variants has become difficult as genomic sequencing declines across the world, she said. The WHO doesn’t have any data yet on the severity of XBB.1.5, but there’s no indication at the moment that it makes people sicker than previous versions of omicron, Van Kerkhove said. The WHO’s advisory group that tracks Covid variants is conducting a risk assessment on XBB.1.5 that it will publish in the coming days, she said. “The more this virus circulates the more opportunities it will have to change,” Van Kerkhove said. “We do expect further waves of infection around the world but that doesn’t have to translate into further waves of death because our countermeasures continue to work.” Scientists say XBB.1.5 is about as good at dodging antibodies from vaccines and infection as its XBB and XBB.1 relatives, which were two of the most immune evasive subvariants yet. But XBB.1.5 has a mutation that makes it bind more tightly to cells, which gives it a growth advantage. As XBB.1.5 rapidly spreads in the U.S., China is battling a surge of cases and hospitalizations after abandoning its zero-Covid policy in response to social unrest late last year. U.S. and global health officials have said Beijing is not sharing enough data on the surge with the international community. “We continue to ask China for more rapid regular reliable data on hospitalizations and deaths as well more comprehensive real-time viral sequencing,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva on Wednesday.

Northeast Ohio doctors concerned about new COVID-19 variant   — A new COVID-19 variant is taking over parts of the country. Northeast Ohio doctors say they're keeping a close eye out and bracing for a possible surge."The data that we do have does suggest that it's spreading quickly, more quickly than other variants," said Dr. Daniel Rhoads, head of microbiology at Cleveland Clinic.Rhoads said while doctors are still waiting to learn more about variant XBB.1.5, early indicators show it's spreading fast, may be more contagious and is evading immunity more than other omicron variants.According to CDC data, this new variant rose from 4% to 40% of new infections just in December and has caused about 75% of new cases in the Northeast part of the country."It looks like it will likely be able to bind with higher affinity to the ACE-2 receptor in the human to cause infection and also it is likely able to avoid the antibodies that most of us already have from vaccines and previous infections," Rhoads said.Doctors said it's too early to tell if the variant is more deadly or causes more severe sickness, but the data they do have is already causing concern."Even if you've had COVID in the past and even if you've been vaccinated, there's a good chance that you could still catch this new variant," Rhoads said.

5 NE Ohio counties at CDC's 'high' community level for COVID-19 | wkyc.com - — As the new year begins, COVID-19 remains a concern in Northeast Ohio, so much so that health experts are once again urging extra precautions for some residents.According to new numbers released Thursday, Erie, Huron, Lorain, Mahoning, and Trumbull counties are once again at the CDC's "high" community level for the coronavirus. This means people in those areas should wear face masks while indoors and in public, according to the center's guidelines.To meet the high threshold, counties must either see at least 20 new COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 residents in a given week or a combination of both 200 new cases and 10 new hospitalizations per capita. Currently, all five of the aforementioned counties are in the "orange" zone by virtue of a high number of hospitalizations, with Huron and Lorain only today joining the other three spots that had already been high for the last couple of weeks.The numbers are as follows:

• Erie: 175.05 cases per 100K, 20.8 new hospitalizations
• Huron: 132.15 cases per 100K, 20.8 new hospitalizations
• Lorain: 138.46 cases per 100K, 20.8 new hospitalizations
• Mahoning: 105.39 cases per 100K, 26.5 new hospitalizations
• Trumbull: 87.89 cases per 100K, 26.5 new hospitalizations

All of Northeast Ohio's other counties are at a "medium" level, including Cuyahoga County with 126.96 new cases and 19.6 new hospitalizations per capita (putting it close to "high"). Experts say those in "yellow" zones may want to think about masking if either they or someone they regularly interact with is immunocompromised.

Why there are so many COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations in the Northeast - As COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations rise across the United States, the Northeast is being hit much harder than other regions of the country.States including Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island have some of the highest weekly case rates per 100,000 in the nation, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.What's more, while seniors across the U.S. are being hospitalized at a rate three times higher than other age groups, it's five times higher in the Northeast, CDC data shows. Public health experts said the reason for the rise is multi-factorial and includes the spread of more transmissible variants, a higher proportion of elderly people and not many Americans receiving the updated bivalent booster.Not much is known about XBB.1.5. What we do know is that it is an offshoot of the omicron subvariant, which caused a surge of infections during the winter 2021-2022 season. Early research suggests it may be better at evading immune responses and, recently, the World Health Organization said it was the most transmissible COVID variant to date."I think that the primary thing right now that's driving higher rates, perhaps, in the Northeast is the higher proportion of XBB.1.5," Dr. Shira Doron, chief infection control officer for Tufts Medicine Health System, told ABC News. "That's the number one detectable difference between the Northeast and the rest of the country." CDC data shows that in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Region 1 -- including Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont -- XBB.1.5 accounts for an estimated 71.6% of new COVID infections. In Region 2 -- made up of New York, New Jersey and the U.S. territories in the Caribbean -- it's an estimated 72.7%. Comparatively, XBB.1.5 makes up an estimated 7.3% of new cases in the Midwest and about an estimated 6% of new cases in the Great Plains region. As of Jan. 5, 2022, six of the 10 states with the highest percentage of residents who have received an updated bivalent booster dose live in the Northeast, according to CDC data. Vermont leads the pack with 31.3% followed by Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Hampshire, respectively.

CDC: COVID Variant XBB.1.5 Spreading Rapidly in NYC, Northeast US – NBC New York -A new most transmissible-yet COVID variant has established dominance in the New York area, fueling rising infection rates across the five boroughs as a looming nurses' strike and ongoing concerns about RSV in kids stoke fresh anxiety about the years-long pandemic.That XBB.1.5 strain, another omicron descendant, is a highly contagious "recombinant" one spawned from two prior, and different omicron subvariants. Those two were considered more transmissible than their predecessors at the time they emerged, and the resulting fusion -- XBB.1.5 -- is believed to be that much more potent in terms of infectiousness. At this point, the World Health Organization doesn't have any data to indicate it is more lethal or causes more severe cases, but the rate at which it is spreading, especially in the northeastern United States, is raising some questions.Global health officials are worried about the rapid spread rate -- the number of people infected with XBB.1.5 has been doubling in the U.S. about every two weeks -- according to WHO COVID-19 Technical Lead Maria VanKerkhove."It is the most transmissible subvariant that has been detected yet," she told reporters this week. "The more this virus circulates, the more opportunities it will have to change." And nowhere is XBB.1.5 circulating faster than the northeast, according to CDC data. Its latest update estimates the variant's prevalence in the New York region, which also encompasses New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, to be 72.2% but as high as 80.8%, compared with a 40.5% estimated prevalence and 61% high at the national level.

How Worried Should We Be About the XBB.1.5 Subvariant? - The Atlantic - After months and months of SARS-CoV-2 subvariant soup, one ingredient has emerged in the United States with a flavor pungent enough to overwhelm the rest: XBB.1.5, an Omicron offshoot that now accounts for an estimated 75 percent of cases in the Northeast. A crafty dodger of antibodies that is able to grip extra tightly onto the surface of our cells, XBB.1.5 is now officially the country’s fastest-spreading coronavirus subvariant. In the last week of December alone, it zoomed from 20 percent of estimated infections nationwide to 40 percent; soon, it’s expected to be all that’s left, or at least very close. “That’s the big thing everybody looks for—how quickly it takes over from existing variants,” says Shaun Truelove, an infectious-disease modeler at Johns Hopkins University. “And that’s a really quick rise.”All of this raises familiar worries: more illness, more long COVID, more hospitalizations, more health-care system strain. With holiday cheer and chilly temperatures crowding people indoors, and the uptake of bivalent vaccines at an abysmal low, a winter wave was already brewing in the U.S. The impending dominance of an especially speedy, immune-evasive variant, Truelove told me, could ratchet up that swell.But the American public has heard that warning many, many, many times before—and by and large, the situation has not changed. The world has come a long way since early 2020, when it lacked vaccines and drugs to combat the coronavirus; now, with immunity from shots and past infections slathered across the planet—porous and uneven though that layer may be—the population is no longer nearly so vulnerable to COVID’s worst effects. Nor is XBB.1.5 a doomsday-caliber threat. So far, no evidence suggests that the subvariant is inherently more severe than its predecessors. When its close sibling, XBB, swamped Singapore a few months ago, pushing case counts up, hospitalizations didn’t undergo a disproportionately massive spike (though XBB.1.5 is more transmissible, and the U.S. is less well vaccinated). Compared with the original Omicron surge that pummeled the nation this time last year, “I think there’s less to be worried about,” especially for people who are up to date on their vaccines, says Mehul Suthar, a viral immunologist at Emory University who’s been studying how the immune system reacts to new variants. “My previous exposures are probably going to help against any XBB infection I have.” SARS-CoV-2’s evolution is still worth tracking closely through genomic surveillance—which is only getting harder as testing efforts continue to be pared back. But “variants mean something a little different now for most of the world than they did earlier in the pandemic,” says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Bern, in Switzerland, who’s been tracking the proportions of SARS-Cov-2 variants around the world. Versions of the virus that can elude a subset of our immune defenses are, after all, going to keep on coming, for as long as SARS-CoV-2 is with us—likely forever, as my colleague Sarah Zhang has written. It’s the classic host-pathogen arms race: Viruses infect us; our bodies, hoping to avoid a similarly severe reinfection, build up defenses, goading the invader into modifying its features so it can infiltrate us anew.

XBB.1.5 COVID variant still rising in the U.S.: What to know -  The Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 is still spreading rapidly in the United States, but it has had a slower increase than originally thought, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  The originally-reported high number of XBB.1.5 cases stoked fears from experts about how fast the virus was surging in the country, especially in the Northeast. The CDC's estimates last week showed that the XBB.1.5 strain was responsible for 40.5% of confirmed U.S. cases for the week ending on Dec. 31, 2022, as Axios reported.  But on Friday, the CDC's estimates changed to show that the XBB.1.5 variant made up 18.3% of cases for the week ending on Dec. 31, 2022, and 27.6% of sequenced cases for the week ending on Jan. 7. XBB.1.5 is the only Omicron subvariant that is still showing growth in the United States, sitting behind the BQ.1.1 variant (which made up 34% of cases last week) in the U.S., according to the CDC's estimates.       Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House Covid-19 response coordinator, said in a lengthy Twitter thread it's still unclear if the XBB.1.5 variant is more severe than previous variants.The XBB.1.5 strain “is the most transmissible form of Omicron to date," Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, said, according to CNN.“We do expect further waves of infection around the world, but that doesn’t have to translate into further waves of death because our countermeasures continue to work,” she said, per CNN.

Long COVID stemmed from mild cases of COVID-19 in most people, according to a new multicountry study -   Even mild COVID-19 cases can have major and long-lasting effects on people’s health. That is one of the key findings from our recent multicountry study on long COVID-19 – or long COVID – recently published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.Long COVID is defined as the continuation or development of symptoms three months after the initial infection from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. These symptoms last for at least two months after onset with no other explanation.We found that a staggering 90% of people living with long COVID initially experienced only mild illness with COVID-19. After developing long COVID, however, the typical person experienced symptoms including fatigue, shortness of breath and cognitive problems such as brain fog – or a combination of these – that affected daily functioning. These symptoms had an impact on health as severe as the long-term effects of traumatic brain injury. Our study also found that women have twice the risk of men and four times the risk of children for developing long COVID. We analyzed data from 54 studies reporting on over 1 million people from 22 countries who had experienced symptoms of COVID-19. We counted how many people with COVID-19 developed clusters of new long-COVID symptoms and determined how their risk of developing the disease varied based on their age, sex and whether they were hospitalized for COVID-19.We found that patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 had a greater risk of developing long COVID – and of having longer-lasting symptoms – compared with people who had not been hospitalized. However, because the vast majority of COVID-19 cases do not require hospitalization, many more cases of long COVID have arisen from these milder cases despite their lower risk. Among all people with long COVID, our study found that nearly one out of every seven were still experiencing these symptoms a year later, and researchers don’t yet know how many of these cases may become chronic.

Long COVID symptoms persisting a year later for 25%: study - A new Canadian study has found that a quarter of those with long COVID are still experiencing at least one symptom a year later.The majority of those struggling with long COVID were found to have recovered within 12 months, regardless of how severe their symptoms were, providing some hope for recovery rates.But those with persistent symptoms were more likely to have higher levels of a marker for autoimmune disorders, suggesting that lingering symptoms may need more attention for recovery.“Generally, one should not worry if they are feeling unwell right after their infection, as the chances of recovering within 12 months is very high, and just because you have typical long COVID symptoms at three months does not mean they will stay forever,” Manali Mukherjee, assistant professor of medicine at McMaster University and senior author of the study, said in a press release.  “However, the study highlights that at 12 months, if you still feel unwell and the symptoms are persisting or worsening, you should definitely seek medical attention.” Long COVID is the term for those dealing with a varying set of persistent symptoms more than 12 weeks after recovering from a COVID-19 infection, ranging from crippling fatigue to muscle pain to neurological issues. According to the World Health Organization, anywhere from 10 to 20 per cent of those who contract COVID-19 have experienced some form of long COVID.

New Zealand’s COVID wave continues over holiday season - New Zealand is now into its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and, as is the case internationally, the holiday season is posing the danger of an even greater surge. A majority of cases are in the urban centres of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. On December 30 there were 3,812 COVID cases announced, 767 down on the day before. The seven-day running average was at 3,471, but the week before Christmas it had risen to 5,157. With people away on holiday, reporting is likely to have dropped away. About 30 percent of all cases are reinfections, which increases the risks of a person developing debilitating Long Covid. The young are being primarily hit by reinfections/ In the 10–19 years age group, 41 percent of cases are reinfections and 46 percent hitting the 20–29 group. Active COVID cases are running highest among the 20–29 and 30–39 age groups. While 84 percent of the eligible population has received a first vaccine dose, just 54 percent has had one booster. With second boosters rationed and unavailable to those deemed younger or healthy, just 14 percent of the population has had one. According to one modelling expert, the official infection figures are likely to be lower than the actual number of cases circulating in the community. Dion O'Neale told Radio New Zealand that about two-thirds of cases would go unreported, because people who were asymptomatic would not be testing. “Around 30 to 40 percent of infections are asymptomatic,” he said. Admissions to hospitals, including ICU, have been increasing since early October, peaking in the week prior to Christmas. There were 732 people in hospital last week with 16 in ICU, and thousands more at home in isolation. Because hospital admissions usually lag by a couple of weeks, doctors are warning the early new year threatens to be another “crunch time” for the overburdened health system. The escalating COVID-19 death rate, which began rising in late October after 7 fatalities during the first week of that month, has been consistently high throughout December. It rose to 78 in the week to December 28, up from 64 the week before, including a child aged under 10. According to data to the end of November, measured by mortality and age-standardised, COVID-19 in New Zealand has cost five to six years of public health improvements during 2022.

China Faces Deluge of Covid Deaths in First Lunar New Year Without Pandemic Curbs - China could see as many as 25,000 deaths a day from Covid-19 later in January, casting a shadow over the start of the first Lunar New Year festivities without pandemic restrictions. Mortalities from the contagious respiratory illness will probably peak around Jan. 23, the second day of the annual holiday in the country of 1.4 billion, according to Airfinity Ltd., a London-based research firm that focuses on predictive health analytics. Daily infections will peak 10 days before at around 3.7 million cases, the researcher said. China suddenly ended its Covid Zero policy about a month ago, abandoning the strict testing and lockdown measures embraced by the world’s second-largest economy since the start of the pandemic almost three years ago. The resulting outbreaks have been difficult to gauge without an accurate count, forcing observers to rely on outside estimates and anecdotal evidence. “Using the trends in regional data our team of epidemiologists has forecast the first peak to be in regions where cases are currently rising and a second peak driven by later surges in other Chinese provinces,” Airfinity said in a statement late on Thursday. Daily infections are currently at around 1.8 million, with mortalities at 9,000, the researcher said. That’s up from the 5,000-plus daily estimate by Airfinity earlier this month, and contrasts sharply with just around a dozen Covid deaths the Chinese government has reported in total since the dismantling of Covid restrictions in early December. By the end of April 2023, China may see 1.7 million deaths from this wave of infections, Airfinity said. Airfinity’s estimates are based on data from China’s regional provinces, which had reported numbers far higher than official national figures, combined with trends seen in Hong Kong, Japan and other countries when they lifted strict restrictions, the researcher said. Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a briefing Thursday that Covid outbreaks have peaked in Beijing, Tianjin and Chengdu. The situation in Shanghai, Chongqing, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan remains serious, he added. The disease will probably spread during Lunar New Year, with many expected to travel around the holiday, he added. With the lifting of travel and other restrictions for the first time since the start of the pandemic, a huge rebound in travel is anticipated during the holiday week in January. The CDC plans to estimate how many additional deaths resulted from the ongoing Covid outbreak, Wu said in the briefing. Excess mortality figures gauge the difference between the number of deaths caused during the current Covid wave and the number of fatalities expected had the pandemic not occurred, and has been used around the world as it’s meant to provide a more comprehensive snapshot of Covid’s impact. With scenes of overwhelmed hospitals playing out across the country, officials on Thursday said some regions are now grappling with a surge in severe Covid patients. The occupancy rate of intensive care unit beds for the whole country hasn’t crossed the red line of 80%, but some parts of the nation are bracing for a peak in severe cases, said Jiao Yahui, an official overseeing hospitals at the National Health Commission. The jump in cases has fueled concern across the globe about the emergence of new Covid variants that could be more contagious, lethal, or both. That has prompted numerous countries to adopt mandatory testing and entry restrictions for travelers from China, which also announced this week that it would reopen its borders on Jan. 8. Read more: US, Italy Are Latest to Require Testing for China Travelers Liang Wannian, China’s senior official overseeing epidemic response, said the country is strengthening the monitoring of Covid variant and will report to the World Health Organization if it discovers any. China’s Covid policy pivot is scientific and appropriate, Liang added.

Nearly 28% Of Mainland China Arrivals At Taiwan’s Busiest Airport Test Positive For Covid Sunday - Nearly 28% of the 524 passenger arrivals from mainland China at Taiwan’s top international airport on Sunday tested positive for Covid, according to the Central Epidemic Command Center, or CECC. Taiwan starting on Jan. 1 is requiring travelers from the mainland to take a saliva-based test when arriving, the Central News Agency reported. The move follows a Covid wave on the mainland after authorities last month eased “zero-Covid” rules that had spurred public protests, disrupted global supply chains, and hurt growth in the world’s No. 2 economy. The U.S., Italy, France and India are among the countries that have ordered pre-boarding Covid tests for China visitors. Taiwan’s policy applies to arrivals from four cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Xiamen — with direct flights to Taoyuan International Airport, CNA said. It also applies to citizens arriving in Taiwan's outlying Kinmen and Matsu islands from Xiamen, the agency said. On Sunday – New Year’s Day, 146 of 524 arriving travelers from the mainland at Taoyuan tested positive for Covid— a 27.8% positivity rate, the agency said today, citing the CECC. CECC spokesman Chuang Jen-hsiang said he hoped the policy would deter mainland travelers from boarding a flight if they have Covid symptoms, according to CNA. Individuals that test positive will be required to undergo a five-day period of isolation if they have mild or no symptoms, the agency said. (See report here.))

Bodies Pile Up in China as Covid Surge Overwhelms Crematoriums   --For five days the elderly Chinese woman’s corpse lay decomposing in the Shanghai house she shared with her family before a hearse finally arrived to take away her remains.“We’re lucky it’s the cold winter time,” a relative said last week at Shanghai’s Longhua Funeral Home, recounting the ordeal as the family waited their turn to say goodbye along with roughly 300 other masked mourners, many of whom asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues. While the octogenarian woman didn’t die of Covid-19, the explosion of cases across China is overwhelming crematoriums, making it hard for anyone to find an open slot.

China orders Covid-19 sewage watch as ‘living with virus’ begins China has finally caught up with monitoring waste water as an early warning system for the coronavirus, a practice followed by some countries since the early stages of the pandemic. “Sewage surveillance” – a technique piloted in megacities such as Beijing and Shenzhen – appeared on China’s national Covid-19 directives for the first time as central authorities issued a new list of monitoring strategies last week.

German government plans to remove all coronavirus protections - In an interview with Tagesspiegel towards the end of December, virologist Christian Drosten declared that in his view, the pandemic in Germany was “over.” Within a very short time, politicians from all major parties took this as an opportunity to call for the removal of the remaining protective measures. Federal Justice Minister Marco Buschmann (Liberal Democratic Party, FDP) wrote on Twitter: “We are in an endemic state. As a political consequence, we should end the last #Coronavirus protections.” FDP deputy chairman Wolfgang Kubicki told Tagesspiegel that there was no basis for “any [...] restriction of fundamental rights to contain the coronavirus” and called on the federal and state governments to end their limited protective measures as soon as possible. Green Party health politician Janosch Dahmen also joined in the propaganda in Tagesspiegel about the end of the pandemic: “At the moment, there is much to suggest that the coronavirus is hardly changing and that its currently still strong spread will finally decrease significantly with the end of this winter.” Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (Social Democratic Party, SPD), whose position is generally portrayed in the media as more moderate, in fact fully endorses this narrative. In an interview with broadcaster ZDF’s heute journal news programme, he stated: It is true that we are now moving into an endemic state. That is, the waves that are coming now no longer cover the entire population, but only the parts that are not sufficiently vaccinated or have previous damage. So, a big wave that would cover the whole population again is not to be expected at the moment. The new variants are not as contagious or as dangerous as they appeared to be in the laboratory a few months ago. This defuses the situation somewhat. At the same time, Lauterbach knows exactly how dramatic the situation is: “We still have full hospitals at the moment, even children can’t be cared for well. We have a high excess mortality rate; people die every day from coronavirus who didn’t necessarily have to die.” In this situation, however, Lauterbach is not suggesting taking serious measures to save lives and prevent hospitals from collapsing. He simply advocates postponing the lifting of all measures for a few weeks. This is completely in line with his previous policy. Lauterbach himself actively promoted and implemented the almost complete winding down of protective measures as Minister of Health. Support for the lifting of the remaining measures is also coming from the opposition. The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are calling for a special conference of federal and state governments at the beginning of January at which the last protective measures—such as mandatory mask wearing in doctors’ surgeries and hospitals and on public transport (in most states)—are to be lifted.

Germany, the Birthplace of the Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 Vaccine, Now Wants to Cancel Its Vaccine Deal -When Pfizer-BioNtech’s experimental mRNA COVID-19 vaccine hit the market, in December 2020, it was met with a mixture of relief, excitement and pride in Germany, the country where it was developed. In some quarters it was treated as a literal godsend, including on the magazine cover of the December 23, 2020 edition of the German weekly Stern, whose main title read, “Vaccination: An Act of Charity”: Much has changed since then. COVID-19 vaccine mandates and passports have come and, in most cases, gone (at least for now). But in the process tens of millions of unvaccinated people in so-called liberal democracies were demonized, systematically discriminated against and deprived of access to basic government services, public buildings and even the ability to travel or work.As IM Doc noted in the comments section of KLG’s fine essay, The Ethics of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates: Where Do We Stand and Where Should We Go Regarding Social and Biomedical Responses to Pandemic, the mandates for these experimental drugs “went against the very essence of two of the most important statements of our ethical code as a civilization – The Nuremberg Code and the Helsinki Declarations. More importantly, they were a slap to the face of one of the guiding principles of medical ethics since Hippocrates – that of patient autonomy.” All for the sake of vaccines that are not nearly as safe or as effective as originally claimed.As I said, things have changed. Even in Germany, a country that came closer than most to enacting a universal COVID-19 vaccine mandate, Pfizer-BioNtech’s scientific godsend has become a hugely expensive burden.“Too many doses, billions in costs – the government wants to cancel the vaccine deal.” So reads the headline of an article published by Die Welt on Dec. 31, 2022. According to the article, there are currently more than 150 million surplus vials in the government’s central warehouse — and no end in sight to the deliveries. The government now wants to cancel or reduce the additional orders made through the EU Commission for 2023 and 2024. Germany’s Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach — who just a few months ago proposed taking Germany’s vaccine passport restrictions to a whole new level — is taking flak as allegations mount that he reordered a huge new batch of the vaccines despite growing stockpiles amid slumping demand for the boosters.

Vaccines: Potential Harms. Volume 724: debated on Tuesday 13 December 2022. UK Parliament. 

An Entire Decade of Benefits Denial for Vets After Camp Lejune Toxic Chemical Exposure? - Camp Lejeune, a military base in Jacksonville, North Carolina, was established in 1942 to train future Marines for World War II. While it is known as the home of “Expeditionary Forces in Readiness,” the facility also has a long history of contamination with toxic chemicals such as perchloroethylene, vinyl chloride, trichloroethylene, and benzene. In 1982, volatile organic compounds—gasses released by these solvents—were found at Camp Lejeune.Furthermore, since 1966, military firefighters and trainees have been using the fire suppressant known as Aqueous Film Forming Foam (AFFF) to extinguish jet fuel and petroleum fires, which only worsened pollution. This firefighting foam contains PFAS, a group of over 5,000 dangerous substances often dubbed “forever chemicals,” in a concentration of up to 98 percent. With each use, AFFF contaminates the environment with these chemicals. Some take over a thousand years to break down, hence their nickname. The highest PFAS level at Camp Lejeune was 170,000 parts per trillion, which exceeds the safe exposure limit by 2,450 times. Currently, there are at least 14 sites of Camp Lejeune where these chemicals lurk, despite the relentless cleanup endeavors of the Environmental Protection Agency and the Navy.  In 1985, the greatest trichloroethylene level was 280 times over the safe exposure limit, whereas the highest perchloroethylene level eclipsed the safe exposure limit by 43 times. The dry-cleaning firm ABC One-Hour Cleaners was responsible for perchloroethylene contamination. As for the other industrial solvents, they ended up polluting Camp Lejeune as a result of the military recklessly using these chemicals to clean weapons and equipment. Exposure to toxic chemicals may cause debilitating health problems, including liver cancer, renal toxicity, prostate cancer, leukemia, female infertility, pancreatic cancer, and scleroderma. Between 1953 and 1987, roughly 1 million people lived at Camp Lejeune, and all had a high risk of developing severe disease. Until recently, veterans affected by toxic exposure could only receive benefits from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Today, due to the Camp Lejeune Justice Act, they can also obtain financial compensation from the U.S. government. On August 2, 2022, the Senate voted to pass the bill with a final vote of 86-11. Nine days later, President Joe Biden signed the Camp Lejeune Justice Act into law. The bill is now part of the Honoring Our PACT Act, which is meant to improve health care access and funding for veterans exposed to toxic substances during their military service.

Belgium declares flu epidemic – Belgium's national public health institute Sciensano officially declared a flu epidemic Wednesday, with cases surging to similar levels as COVID-19."The flu has already been back for some time in our country, but now all the criteria are met to be able to talk about a flu epidemic," the institute said, explaining that a "clear increase" in the number of influenza cases had been observed among general practitioners as well as in laboratory tests and hospitalizations.In addition to the influenza virus, the bronchiolitis virus, coronavirus and other respiratory viruses that can cause the same symptoms are currently circulating, the institute added."We now see about as many flu patients in our hospitals as corona patients," said Steven Van Gucht, a virologist at Sciensano. "But it is well possible that the number of hospitalized flu patients will take the lead."The health care sector is already struggling due to the high cases, but experts predict the worst could be yet to come. The peak is expected in three or four weeks, according to Van Gucht, who added that "it is always possible to get a flu shot."Europe's influenza season kicked off early this year: Hospital admissions due to the illness have been rising since October. Other countries like Germany and Slovakia had already declared an epidemic and more countries are expected to do so.

Mass. one of 6 states with highest flu rates in country, CDC says - Flu rates remain “very high” across Massachusetts, with the state being just one of six total in the country said to have the highest flu rates in the country in a weekly flu report updated as of Dec. 30, 2022, and collected through Dec. 24, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).Data from the CDC’s reporting showed there were 7,162 new reported lab-cases of the flu recorded from Dec. 18 until Dec. 24, 2022, in Massachusetts. That represented a drop from the 8,493 new reported cases from the week prior, according to the data.The CDC also said 5.07% of hospitalizations in Massachusetts were related to the flu, less than the week prior’s of 5.21%.However, 8.03% of healthcare visits were related to an “influenza-like illness,” the CDC said, greater than the regional baseline of 2.0%.This year’s flu spike is massive compared to years’ prior; during the same flu reporting period for the week of Dec. 19, 2021, just 3.45% of healthcare visits in the commonwealth were related to the flu. Flu-related healthcare visits only peaked at 4.39% during the week of Dec. 26, 2021, even sinking below the regional baseline of 2.0% to 1.95% by the week of Jan. 9, 2022.This is the highest amount of flu-related healthcare visits in Massachusetts since 2020, when visit rates peaked at 6.61% during the week of March 22, 2020. They were also considered “very high,” but were over 1.5% lower than current flu data.Across the country, the other five states with the highest flu rates in the country include Maine, Nebraska, Idaho, Colorado and New Mexico, according to the CDC.

Alberta doctors urge vaccinations as influenza deaths mount Twenty more Albertans died of influenza in the past two weeks, according to the latest data released by the province. To Dec. 31, 2022, 77 Albertans had their deaths attributed to influenza. That number is approaching double the decade’s average. In the two weeks since the last publicly published data report, there were 183 more influenza hospitalizations and 10 new ICU admissions. And there were 654 more lab-confirmed cases. Influenza A (H3N2) remains the dominant subtype. This season, there have been 1,812 hospitalizations, 180 ICU admissions and 8,335 cases. Provincial ICU capacity, including surge beds, sat at 87 per cent on Jan. 6. Lab-confirmed cases have been trending down since Nov. 20, but pre-pandemic flu seasons have often seen a resurgence in cases – a second wave. Between 2009 and 2020, Alberta saw an average of 1,483 hospitalizations, 161 ICU admissions and 41 deaths in an influenza season. Alberta health minister says current peak of influenza may have passed, bracing for more waves in new year The 2017-18 season marked a high-water mark in the past decade for hospitalizations at 3,047, and the 2014-15 season saw 114 deaths. The percentage of Albertans who have been vaccinated against influenza inched up to 26.9 per cent, a number the Alberta Medical Association called “still too low.”

Effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza on canids investigated --  Researchers at Hokkaido University have revealed the effects of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus infection on an Ezo red fox and a Japanese raccoon dog, linking their infection to a recorded die-off of crows. High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI), commonly known as a type of bird flu, is caused by a group of influenza viruses that affect birds. Humans are very rarely infected by this virus. The most well-known HPAI viral subtype is H5N1, first reported in 1996 for its infection in geese, and then found in humans since 1997. A great amount of time and resources are devoted to monitoring and tracking the spread of HPAI across the globe, due to its disruptive potential on poultry farming -- outbreaks are contained by culling exposed and infected flocks. In the winter and spring of 2021-2022, wild bird monitoring programs revealed that H5N1 HPAI viruses were present across a wide swathe of habitats in Eurasia, Africa and the Americas. On March 29, 2022, a die-off of crows was reported in a public garden in the northern city of Sapporo, Japan. A dead Ezo red fox and an emaciated Japanese raccoon dog (tanuki) were also found in the same park shortly afterwards. A team of researchers led by Professor Yoshihiro Sakoda at Hokkaido University performed post-mortem diagnosis and microbiological examinations of the crows, the fox and the raccoon dog to understand the cause of death. Their discoveries, which were published in the journal Virology, showed that it was highly likely that the fox and raccoon dog had become infected with the HPAI virus via contact with the diseased crows. However, as the route of contact was different, the effects of HPAI on the two canids were also different. "The susceptibility of crows to HPAI viruses varies depending on the strain, but the current HPAI virus strain appears to thrive in crows. As a result, carnivorous mammals such as foxes are at risk of infection with HPAI if they consume crow carcasses. On the other hand, raccoon dogs primarily consume fruits, plant seeds, and insects, so it is believed that he was infected due to close contact with crow carcasses," explained Takahiro Hiono, the first author of the paper. The crows, fox and raccoon dog all tested positive for isolation of the H5N1 HPAI virus. Further analysis revealed that the viruses from all three sources were closely related to each other, although they were not completely identical. The fox and raccoon dog then underwent necropsies and their tissues were investigated under the microscope. The investigations revealed that the virus had infected the upper respiratory tracts of both the fox and the raccoon dog. The virus was also detected in the brain of the fox, consistent with reports from other studies.

Gas stoves are contributing to childhood asthma in Massachusetts, study finds -   Gas stoves are responsible for 15.4 percent of childhood asthma cases in Massachusetts, suggesting the Commonwealth could avoid more than one in seven childhood asthma cases by getting rid of the appliances, a new peer-reviewed study says. That number is above the 12.7 percent of childhood asthma cases nationwide that are attributed to gas stoves, according to the research published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.

Photos from space show 11,000 beavers are wreaking havoc on the Alaskan tundra as savagely as wildfire - Beavers are taking over the Alaskan tundra, completely transforming its waterways, and accelerating climate change in the Arctic. The changes are so sudden and drastic that they're clearly visible from space. As the Arctic tundra warms, woody plants are growing along its rivers and streams, creating perfect habitats for beavers. As the furry rodents move into these waterways, they make themselves at home by doing what they do best: chewing and carrying wood to build dams, and clogging rapid rivers and streams to make lush ponds. What was once a thin line of water cutting across the tundra has become a train of bulbous beaver ponds: - "There's not even a lot of other animals that leave a footprint you can see from space," Ken Tape, an ecologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, told Insider. "There is one, and they're called humans. The funny thing is that humans could not get a permit to do what beavers are now doing in this state." This swimming, furry rodent's invasion of the North American tundra is a mixed bag. The beaver ponds create lush oases that could increase biodiversity, but they also play a role in accelerating the climate crisis. 11,000 new beaver ponds pond with beaver dam and mound of sticks in the middle surrounded by bright green shrubs with mountains in background A beaver dam forms a pool encircling a beaver lodge near the Denali Highway in the Alaska Range. Ken Tape Tape and his colleagues assessed aerial photos from the early 1950s and found no signs of beaver presence in Alaska's Arctic tundra. The first signs of beavers appeared in 1980 imagery. In satellite imagery from the 2000s and 2010s, the beaver ponds doubled. All in all, satellites reveal more than 11,000 beaver ponds have appeared across the tundra.

1 person found dead in flooded car as California county faces major flooding - ABC News -  One person was found dead in their vehicle in California on Sunday morning, as a winter storm brought flooding and heavy snow to the state, a Sacramento Metro Fire spokesperson confirmed to ABC News.A Sacramento Metro Fire spokesperson confirmed that the deceased was recovered from their flooded vehicle in the southernmost part of Sacramento County, near the city of Elk Grove. The identity and cause of death of the deceased haven't been confirmed pending a coroner's examination, according to Sacramento Metro Fire. The National Weather Service in Sacramento issued flash flood warnings for the area, urging drivers to stay off the road. A levee break in several places caused the flooding in the area, Sacramento Metro Fire Captain and Public Information Officer Parker Wilbourn told ABC News. The Sacramento County Office of Emergency Services ordered residents in Wilton to shelter in place earlier Saturday afternoon. "Rising water has made roads impassable in the area," the office said in an advisory. According to Caltrans District 3, which maintains the state highway system in 11 northern California counties, a highway near Elk Grove has been closed because the Cosumnes River flooded. Two more storms are expected for the next week in northern California, with the second storm scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly causing flooding in the area, according to NWS Sacramento. Over 5 inches of rain had fallen in downtown San Francisco on Saturday, setting a new daily record, the National Weather Service for the San Francisco Bay Area said. The West Coast is being slammed with an atmospheric river, which usually brings heavy rain, wind and snow to areas that it flows through, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The NOAA describes atmospheric rivers as "rivers in the sky" because they're somewhat long and narrow regions in the atmosphere that send most of the water vapor outside the tropics.

More NorCal towns warned to evacuate due to 'imminent levee failure' - The California town of Wilton remains under shelter-in-place orders after intense rain from Saturday's atmospheric river threatened an "imminent levee failure." According to KCRA, officials confirmed Sunday morning at least two levees have been breached. On Saturday afternoon, the 5,000-some residents of the Sacramento County town were ordered to evacuate immediately as flood waters rose. By 3:30 p.m., however, conditions were too dangerous on the roads, and Sacramento County officials told remaining residents to shelter in place. At 11:30 p.m., a flash flood warning for Wilton was issued due to "an imminent levee failure in that area on the Cosumnes River. Residents have been advised to seek higher ground immediately." Despite the fact the rain has stopped, the flood waters continue to rise. Shortly before 1 p.m., evacuation warnings were extended to residents of Point Pleasant, Glanville Tract and Franklin Pond. "Prepare to leave the area now before roadways are cut off to evacuate the area," county officials said. "It is expected that the flooding from the Cosumnes River and the Mokelumne River is moving southwest toward I-5 and could reach these areas in the middle of the night." The @NWSSacramento has issued a Flash Flood Watch along and west of I-5 to the Sac River, south to Walnut Grove, north to Elliot Ranch Road. Flooding caused by excessive rainfall and floodwaters on the Cosumnes and Mokelumne Rivers may rapidly inundate areas within the watch. A flash flood watch remains in effect for southern Sacramento County until 11:15 p.m. tonight, covering many of the residences south of Elk Grove along the I-5 corridor to Galt. According to the Sacramento Office of Emergency Services, the flood watch extends "along and west of I-5 to the Sac River, south to Walnut Grove, north to Elliot Ranch Road." An evacuation center is open at the Wackford Community Center at 9014 Bruceville Road in Elk Grove. Livestock should be taken to higher ground, if possible. Update Jan. 1, 4:41 p.m.: Point Pleasant is now under an evacuation order as flooding in the area becomes "imminent," according to the Sacramento Office of Emergency Services.

2023 hits Northern California with flooding and landslides, and more could be on the way — Crews in Northern California were still scrambling early Monday to clean up the disastrous effects of record rainfall before another weather system moves in from the Pacific this week. A New Year's storm brought deadly flooding, high winds and landslides, and a deep layer of heavy snow to some areas, shutting down freeways and stranding drivers.The immediate concern on Monday morning around Sacramento was breached levees, several of which were threatening to flood more roadways.  Many residents in Sacramento County were already under evacuation orders after the historic rains breached the levees, with authorities warning that the situation remained "incredibly dangerous." The fear is that swollen rivers could keep rising this week after they overflowed onto nearby roads. First responders rescued at least a dozen people stranded in vehicles over the weekend, with at least one person dying near the town of Wilton after trying to drive through high water. Neighborhoods across Northern California have been submerged and landslides have blocked roads. Powerful wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour brought trees down on power lines, leaving tens of thousands of people in the dark. Further south in the San Francisco Bay Area, the iconic Fisherman's Wharf experienced its wettest day in nearly 30 years, and the Oakland Zoo was set to be closed for at least two weeks after a huge sinkhole collapsed at its entrance. The atmospheric river brought more than eight feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains, shutting down roads and even closing many ski resorts. As the system heads east through the Rockies, avalanche warnings were already in effect after one skier was killed near Breckenridge, Colorado, and another avalanche was caught on camera from downtown Telluride over the weekend.

Powerful atmospheric river drenches California, leaves at least 2 people dead and more than 300 000 customers without power, U.S. - A powerful atmospheric river brought heavy rains to northern and central California on December 31, 2022, bringing widespread flooding and power outages. At least 2 people lost their lives. The storm left more than 300 000 customers without power across California and Nevada, trapped people in flooded vehicles, and prompted Sacramento County to warn some residents to evacuate ahead of an imminent levee failure The winter storm is now shifting over the Central and Southern U.S. More than 15 million people from the West Coast to Illinois are under winter weather alerts The Sacramento County area was particularly hard hit over the past few days, with emergency crews spending the weekend rescuing multiple flood victims by boats and helicopter and responding to fallen trees and disabled vehicles in the flood waters, the Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District said.1 On Sunday, January 1, 2023, the Sacramento County Office of Emergency Services issued an evacuation warning to residents living in the areas of Point Pleasant, Glanville Tract, and Franklin Pond to prepare to leave the area before roadways are cut off to evacuate the area. “It is expected that the flooding from the Cosumnes River and the Mokelumne River is moving southwest toward I-5 and could reach these areas in the middle of the night,” county officials said at 20:43 UTC on January 1, adding that livestock in the affected areas should be moved to higher ground. By midnight UTC on January 2, the Point Pleasant area’s evacuation warning has been escalated to an Evacuation Order. “Flooding in the area is imminent,” officials said. “Please gather your pets, important paperwork, prescriptions and all people in your household, and safely make your way to the Evacuation Center.” Flooding from the Cosumnes River forced the closure of Highway 99 south of Elk Grove in Sacramento County, the California Department of Transportation said. SR 99 is one of the state’s heavily traveled, and commercially important, corridors. Aerial video from CNN affiliate KCRA showed cars submerged past their door handles in flood waters from Highway 99 and the Dillard Street area. Chris Schamber, a fire captain with the Cosumnes Fire Department, told the station “dozens upon dozens” of people had been rescued.1 For San Francisco, the storm brought one of its wettest days in records and caused widespread flooding, temporarily closing one of California’s most famous routes – US Highway 101 – in both directions in San Francisco. As of 17:00 LT on December 31, a weather station in downtown San Francisco registered 138.4 mm (5.45 inches) of rain, making it the second-wettest day in the area since records began in 1949. The current official record at the weather station is 140.7 mm (5.54 inches) set on November 5, 1994.

Sacramento area flooding death toll rises - The bodies of two women were discovered as additional victims of flooding in the Sacramento area from a storm on New Year's Eve.That increases the death toll from flooding to three. One of the victims was a woman found in a field east of Highway 99 by California Highway Patrol officers. The CHP was towing cars that were abandoned amid deep water from the swollen Cosumnes and the Mokelumne Rivers. The police believe the woman had been traveling in such a car.She was identified as 57-year-old Mei Keng Lam of San Leandro, KCRA reported.  Another woman was found in a submerged car elsewhere, according to KCRA.A deceased man had previously been found in a submerged car near Highway 99.

3 victims now identified after New Year's storm flooding on Cosumnes, Mokelumne rivers – At least three bodies were recovered in cars stranded in high water after the New Year's storm. The latest body was found Wednesday off New Hope Road in Galt. Family members say Kathy Martinez was on her way to help one of her sons stuck in the mud when she called to say she was stuck in high water. That was the last they heard of her on New Year's Day. Crews recovered another body just hours earlier near Dillard Road and 99 in the Wilton area. The sons of Mei Keng Lam told CBS13 she called a friend for help, saying she was stuck in floodwaters when the line went dead. On Thursday, the Sacramento County Coroner's Office also identified the first person whose body was found as 45-year-old McAlester, Oklahoma resident Steven Sampson. Dozens of people had to be rescued after flooding left multiple cars stranded on Highway 99.

Atmospheric river brings more rain, wind, flooding after bomb cyclone batters Bay Area - Fueled by the atmospheric river, rain continued to pound the Bay Area and Northern California Thursday following a bomb cyclone storm that battered the region Wednesday. The National Weather Service said Thursday said storm cells would bring scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to the region throughout the day and tapering off. Light to moderate rainfall rates were expected Thursday, with locally higher rates possible within isolated storm cells. A bomb cyclone smashed into California on January 4, 2023, bringing powerful winds and torrential rain that was expected to cause flooding in areas already saturated by consecutive storms. The weather service said any additional rain over already-saturated soils will result in flooding concerns and a Flood Watch remained in effect until 4 p.m. Thursday. A High Wind Warning expired as of 11 a.m. Thursday, but the gusty winds left widespread damage behind. A Wind Advisory was still in effect for higher terrains where wind gusts were to continue in the 40 to 65 mph range, diminishing through the remainder of the morning. Drier conditions were anticipated for Thursday night into Friday which the weather service said looks to be a bit of a break day, but then subsequent weather systems were projected to bring additional rain and gusty winds this weekend and into next week. Santa Cruz evacuated its wharf Thursday as the bomb cyclone continued to bear down on the coastal city. City officials posted about the evacuation on Facebook at around 9 a.m. Thursday morning. They asked that residents stay inside during the storm to stay safe and not to stand outside to watch the storm-drive chaos. "Strong waves are crashing on West Cliff Dr., and West Cliff Dr. will be closed from Pelton to Almar. These intense waves are pushing large rocks onto the road as well. Please be careful near any bodies of water as we still have high wind advisories, and there could be dangerous conditions," city officials added.

Evacuations ordered as California 'bomb cyclone' unleashes powerful winds, heavy rain; state of emergency declared -– California declared a state of emergency Wednesday as a powerful storm generated 45-foot waves out at sea, dropped soaking rain on already saturated ground, and prompted warnings of floods and mudslides, knocking out power to more than 100,000 people. The storm was expected to dump up to 6 inches of rain in parts of the San Francisco Bay Area where most of the region would remain under flood warnings into late Thursday night. In Southern California, the storm was expected to peak in intensity overnight into early Thursday morning with Santa Barbara and Ventura counties likely to see the most rain, forecasters said.On Wednesday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom authorized state National Guard units to support disaster response as a massive storm pummeled much of the state's coastline.Fire and rescue equipment and personnel have been prepositioned in areas deemed most likely to experience severe flooding and mudflows."If you've still got power, it's a good idea to charge your cellphone, computers and tablets now while you can," said National Weather Service meteorologist Cynthia Palmer in the agency's San Francisco area office. If the power goes out, having access to timely information about the storm – and something to watch – will be useful, she said. The storm is termed a "bomb cyclone" because it is expected to be marked by a quick drop in atmospheric pressure resulting in a high-intensity storm."All told it's about a 30-hour event from start to finish," said Rick Canepa, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's San Francisco office. "The rain won't be done until Thursday afternoon or early evening."

Northern and Central California Could See Rain and High Winds for Days - The New York Times - A series of storms will parade through the Western United States over the next five days with another strong storm on Monday and Tuesday, forecasters warn. And the pattern could last through mid-January. “When all said and done, we are looking at several more inches of rainfall through the middle of next week with moderate to high confidence of even more rain through mid-month,” according to forecasters at the San Francisco Bay Area office of the National Weather Service.“Additional rounds of heavy rainfall with ample runoff issues are likely to persist through early next week in a dangerously wet pattern with multiple atmospheric rivers,” meteorologists at the national Weather Prediction Center said.An atmospheric river continues to stream moisture over California on Thursday, but is forecast to weaken as the day progresses.“Coastal areas of California and the Sacramento Valley are most at risk,” the prediction center forecasters said early Thursday morning.  These forecasters warned that rain rates of over one inch per hour could produce rapidly rising water in rivers and streams, and create mud or rock slides.These saturated soils, combined with wind gusts of 50 miles per hour predicted on Thursday, may make trees more susceptible to being blown down.In the mountains above 5,000 feet of altitude in Northern and Central California, snow will continue to fall at rates of more than three inches an hour at times, creating dangerous travel conditions. Things should wind down by Thursday evening, when most of the heavy rainfall comes to an end. But the reprieve will be brief. Widespread rainfall and high-elevation snow is expected to return on Saturday to most of California. Southern California may escape with another day without precipitation. The first burst of rain is expected in the morning, with more rain inland toward Sacramento and the Sacramento Valley. By evening, another dose of heavy rain is expected further south over the Bay Area.  Things begin to look dreary again acrossmost of the state on Sunday; even Southern California most likely gets the moisture back.“The storm door will remain open this weekend all the way through end of next week,” forecasters at the Los Angeles office of the Weather Service said.The biggest areas of concern for excessive rainfall are still limited to Northern California. Monday will likely see another strong atmospheric river develop, which will once again deliver widespread moderate-to-heavy rain, strong southerly winds and heavy snow in the higher elevations.The plume of moisture will first move over the Bay Area during the day.It’s a little early to know exactly how much rain will fall with this robust storm system on Monday, but the prediction center forecasters said in their extended outlook, “look for multiple inches over a broad area of Northern and Central California.” “The cumulative effects of repeated rounds of moderate to heavyrain from preceding storms may lead to a higher potential for more widespread flooding with increasingly severe impacts with this storm,” the Sacramento weather office said on Thursday.  By Monday night into Tuesday, the heavier plume of moisture is likely to move south over the Los Angeles area.There isn’t great news in the forecasts. It looks like the storms will take a brief lull, but forecasters believe another moderate to strong atmospheric river could take aim at the West Coast next Thursday.

Relentless storm train resulting in eye-popping rain, snow totals in California --The recent bout of stormy weather in California over the last two weeks, driven by a persistent flow of moisture off the Pacific Ocean, is leaving its mark in the record books, and there is more ahead in the coming days and weeks, according to AccuWeather forecasters. Over the 10-day period ending on Jan. 4, Downtown San Francisco recorded 10.33 inches of rain, marking the wettest 10-day stretch there since the Civil War era in January 1862, when 14.37 inches fell between Jan. 8 and 17. Records there date back to 1849, or a year into the Gold Rush. Major airports in the Bay Area have also reported rainfall amounts well above average. Since the day after Christmas, San Francisco International Airport has measured 8.84 inches of rain, which is 614% of normal (1.44 inches). Nearby Oakland International Airport reported 10.43 inches over the same period, which is an astounding 767% of normal (1.36 inches). • Since the beginning of the state's water season, on Oct. 1, a total of 15.17 inches of rain has fallen in Downtown San Francisco. On average, about 9 inches of rain is expected between that day and Jan. 5. Coincidentally, more rain fell during the stretch from Oct. 1, 2021, to Jan. 5, 2022, (16.76 inches), but this season is more noteworthy for how much rain has fallen over a period of fewer than two weeks. • The recent storms have been blasting the Sierra Nevada mountain range with an incredible amount of snow, with each event being measured in feet. For the entire range, the amount of water locked in the snowpack is above average for the season so far, and in some places, is approaching the average amount for an entire winter season. The San Francisco Chronicle reported that the current average snowpack across the range is at a 10-year high. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the amount of water locked in the snow ranges from 15 to 20 inches across the mountain range. That equivalency in the southern Sierra Nevada range is currently around 200% (twice) of what is normal for the season to date and is at 80 percent of what is typical for an entire season. The central and northern ranges are trailing the mountains to the south, but they are still running above average in the 140 to 185% range for the season so far, which is 50 to 75% of what is normal for an entire season. When heavy rain and snow are discussed for California's wet season, inevitably the conversation goes to what the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is, specifically, whether or not it is an El Niño or La Niña year. Currently, a La Niña is present, but it is weakening. During an El Niño pattern, a wetter winter season usually occurs in California.  According to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok, a weakening La Niña impacted the weather pattern over the Pacific, leading to the current train of storms. "A strong trail of storms across southern Asia moved across the Pacific from late December into early January and forced the subtropical jet steam farther south right into California," said Pastelok. The subtropical jet stream, which moisture-packed storms will track along, typically stays north of California during the winter months in a La Niña year, but as Pastelok points out, a weakening La Niña can force that jet stream farther south into the heart of the Golden State.

Dangers to life, property remain high in California as storm onslaught continues - AccuWeather meteorologists warn that a moisture-packed system set to arrive early next week could be the strongest in a Pacific storm train that has been rolling since the end of 2022.California has faced a frenzy of storms that have unleashed deadly impacts since the end of 2022, and AccuWeather meteorologists say the onslaught is far from over. One storm in the bunch is poised to aim a firehose of moisture at the Golden State early in the new week, potentially leading to "catastrophic" flooding, in addition to widespread mudslides and road closures, forecasters say."The impacts from this storm cannot be understated," AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Bauer said.As a standalone storm, the amount of rain and snow expected would be enough to raise flooding concerns and snarl travel in the mountains. AccuWeather experts say what sets this storm apart and could catapult it to extreme and historic levels is the preceding.This storm will be intensely tapping into a substantial atmospheric river, arriving just days after previous storms brought heavy rainfall and created significant flooding, increasing the impacts and risks that can occur given the already saturated ground, according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter.In the wake of yet another system bringing rain and mountain snow to Northern and Central California into Sunday, the main push of moisture associated with the next Pacific storm is expected to arrive late Sunday night, with waves of moisture continuing to push onshore through the first half of the week. "Flooding from Northern to Central California is expected to be widespread, even catastrophic in some locations around the coastal mountains and the northern and central Sierra. Given saturated ground, much of this water to runoff into rivers where more than a dozen monitored river locations are forecast to be above flood stage, even in the Central Valley," Bauer said.

Biden declares Arizona floods a federal disaster for Havasupai tribe | Arizona - The White House has made a federal disaster declaration for the Havasupai Native American tribe that mainly lives deep inside the Grand Canyon in Arizona, as the community prepares to reopen tourist access to its famous turquoise waterfalls next month. Last October, the village experienced drastic flooding which damaged extensive parts of the reservation. The floods “destroyed several bridges and trails that are needed not only for our tourists, but for the everyday movement of goods and services into the Supai Village”, the tribe said. The Havasupai is now readying itself to receive tourists again from 1 February on its reservation, which sits nine miles down narrow trails between spectacular red rock cliffs deep within the Grand Canyon in northern Arizona. Tourists must apply for permits to enter the reservation. It is the first time that tourists have been allowed to return to the reservation not only since the flooding, but in almost three years, since tourism was closed off early in 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic spread across the US. The canyon community has very limited health care resources on site. The tribe is one of North America’s smallest and is the only one based inside the canyon, where the community has lived for more than 800 years, despite being driven off much of its original, much wider, territory by armed settlers in the 19th century. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), such a declaration provides a wide range of federal assistance programs for individuals and public infrastructure, including funds for emergency and permanent work. The tribe grows crops and keeps farm animals on a thin ribbon of land inside the canyon, alongside the naturally occurring, vividly hued streams and falls. Havasupai means the people of the blue-green water.

Survey: 3.3 million U.S. adults displaced by natural disasters in past year - Some 3.3 million adults living in the U.S. were displaced by natural disasters this past year, per a new U.S. Census Bureau survey. Hurricanes were responsible for more than half of the relocations, data released from the Household Pulse Survey on Thursday shows. More than 1.9 million people were displaced by hurricanes, while about 665,000 people were displaced by flooding, nearly 660,000 from fires, and more than 320,000 from tornados.Another 685,000 were displaced by other natural disasters. More than a third of those displaced by natural disasters, and the subsequent damage caused by them, were out of their homes for less than a week. About 1 in 6 — that's more than 543,000 people — never returned home.  The state with the most people displaced was Florida, with almost 1 million people forcibly leaving their homes in the face of Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole.

Majority of disabled people never go home after disasters - - Advocates have been trying for years to draw attention to the harsh conditions that people with disabilities face after natural disasters. Now federal data shows that the suffering is worse than anyone could have imagined. Census Bureau data released Thursday shows that people with disabilities are far more likely than anyone else to face major hardships including displacement from their homes due to a major disaster. If they evacuate, people with disabilities face dangerous levels of isolation, squalid living conditions, shortages of food and water and electricity, and permanent dislocation, an E&E News analysis of the data shows. For example, 70 percent of deaf people who were evacuated reported living in unsanitary conditions a month after the disaster. More than 74 percent of evacuees who are unable to walk reported experiencing a lack of food one month after a disaster. By contrast, just 9 percent of people who can walk faced a food shortage, Census figures show. Only 7 percent of evacuees with good hearing were in unsanitary conditions. “This is completely in alignment with things we have noted over several years now regarding individuals with disabilities and disasters,” said Justice Shorter, a disaster adviser for the National Disability Rights Network. “This should encourage folks to understand that all of the stories, testimony, commentary that people with disabilities have been giving for years are credible, believable, and it shouldn’t take this to make those stories valid,” Shorter added. The information marks the first time the Census Bureau has analyzed how disasters affect groups of people. It comes as increasing disaster damage due in part to climate change is drawing attention to the disproportionate impact on marginalized people. The data could galvanize long-standing efforts to improve the treatment of people with disabilities after destructive hurricanes, floods, wildfires and other events. The Census data also confirm that disasters generally have a harsher effect on disadvantaged groups including low-income households and people who are racial or ethnic minorities. But an E&E News analysis of the new data shows that people with disabilities suffer far worse consequences than any other group. Perhaps the starkest disparity is that people with disabilities are much more likely than others to be forced to leave home during a disaster. Evacuation often leads to people being permanently institutionalized and facing a cascade of other problems. The Census Bureau found that slightly more than 1 percent of U.S. adults had been forced to leave home in the past year due to a disaster. But the evacuation rate for people with disabilities was astronomical by comparison. Nearly 31 percent of U.S. adults who cannot care for themselves were forced to evacuate after a disaster. Almost 21 percent of adults who are blind were forced to leave their homes. Once they evacuated, most people with disabilities never returned home, according to the Census data.

Record floods, widespread damage as ex-Tropical Cyclone “Ellie” drops heavy rains over northern Western Australia -  Remnants of Tropical Cyclone “Ellie” have dropped heavy rains over parts of northern Western Australia over the past week, causing record floods and widespread damage. On January 3, ex-Tropical Cyclone “Ellie” was located between Broome and Fitzroy Crossing, Western Australia, and is expected to slowly track west to be centered just east of Broome by Wednesday morning, January 4 (LT).1 Heavy rainfall is likely to impact Broome, Roebuck Plains and the Dampier Peninsular from Tuesday, January 3 to Thursday, January 5, and gale-force winds are possible. Daily rainfall amounts of 100 – 200 mm (3.9 – 7.9 inches) with isolated falls of 250 mm (9.8 inches) and very isolated falls of 300 mm (11.8 inches) are possible. Over the past week, very high rainfall totals of 250 – 500 mm (9.8 – 19.7 inches) have been observed in northern Western Australia associated with Ellie, including 823 mm (32.4 inches) at Diamond Gorge, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports. The Fitzroy River at Fitzroy Crossing was at 15.29 m (50.2 feet) and rising at midday local time on Tuesday, exceeding the previous record in 2002 of 13.95 m (45.8 feet). Further rises are possible as upstream floodwaters arrive, and the Fitzroy River at Fitzroy Crossing may reach around 15.60 m (51.2 feet) later Tuesday. Floodwater has triggered the need for multiple evacuations, relocation of community members and transit to high ground or Broome. Flooding downstream is expected to exceed 2002 levels at Noonkanbah, Looma and Willare, BOM said. This flooding is impacting road conditions in the Fitzroy River catchment. Many roads are impassable, and most communities are now isolated. Shire of Derby-West Kimberley President Geoff Haerewa said damage from the floods could impact communities for months to come.2 “We can’t confirm how much damage there has been to the Fitzroy Bridge until the water goes down but the consequences of (the bridge collapsing) would be catastrophic for Fitzroy Crossing,” he said. “If that bridge goes down there’s no way we could just rely on road access from Perth, there are just too many communities further north of Fitzroy Crossing that would need help with food, fuel, medical supplies, and shelter.”

Historic winter warm spell engulfs Europe, breaking thousands of temperature records - The Weather gods have been very kind to Europe so far this winter. Instead of normally very cold December and January, the weather turned to be unusually warm, breaking thousands of temperature records across much of the continent. From Spain and France to western Russia, temperatures across much of Europe are 10 to 20 °C (18 to 36 °F) above normal at the start of 2023, with thousands of temperature records broken from December 31 to January 2, 2023. “We just observed the warmest January day on record for many countries in Europe,” Scottish meteorologist Scott Duncan said. “Truly unprecedented in modern records.” “[There are] far too many individual station records to even count,” Duncan said. “Thousands.” On January 1, at least seven countries saw their warmest January weather on record, climatologist Maximiliano Herrera reports. Latvia registered 11.1 °C (52 °F), Denmark 12.6 °C (54.7 °F), Lithuania 14.6 °C (58.3 °F), Belarus 16.4 °C (61.5 °F), the Netherlands 16.9 °C (62.4 °F), Poland 19 °C (66.2 °F), and the Czech Republic 19.6 °C (67.3 °F). Poland lived through a historic 19 °C (66.2 °F) in the middle of the night on January 1 — a temperature uncommon even during summertime. Hundreds of records were broken in Germany on the same day, with temperatures rising as high as 19.4 °C (66.9 °F). Abnormal warmth also gripped Austria, with 19.7 °C (67.5 °F) at Puchberg. Temperatures up to 18.9 °C (66 °F) were registered in Hungary, 19 °C (66.2 °F) in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia while Romania registered temperatures above 20 °C (68 °F). On January 2, an astonishing 19.2 °C (66.6 °F) was registered at Baden-Geroldsau in Germany and an incredible 18.2 °C (64.8 °F) at Hohenpeißenberg at 977 m (3 205 feet) above sea level. In just 3 days, 982 monthly records were broken in Germany.

Latest maps show 'Sudden Stratospheric Warming event' could wreak havoc across Britain - BRITAIN could be just 10 days from the start of an Arctic whiteout amid warnings a collapsing Polar vortex will trigger a January big freeze. Forecasters say there is potential for a severe cold spell next month with snow flurries possible as soon as the clocks toll the end of 2022 this weekend. Meteorologists have their eyes trained on the Polar Vortex – a pool of cold air spinning over the North Pole­–and the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. However, conflicting weather models have sparked a furious meteorological debate with some forecasters insisting milder, more stormy weather is more likely. Heavy snow could blanket much of Britain in January 2023 according to the latest weather maps Heavy snow could blanket much of Britain in January 2023 according to the latest weather maps PA A major SSW drove 2018's Beast from the East, an Arctic deluge which during late winter blanketed swathes of the UK in deep snow. The phenomenon is caused by a change in wind direction in the air high above the North Pole causing air to descend from the stratosphere and flood the United States, Asia and northern Europe. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is now looking even more likely to occur this winter, and this could happen as soon as in the next 10 days. “This will mean that the cold air over the Arctic will be given a route to cross our shores, and in addition to above-average snowfall, it could pave the way for another big freeze, leaving the cold snap earlier in December a distant memory.” If an SSW event does set in, colder weather could hit Britons around the middle of January, he warned. In the meantime, cold winds blowing into the UK this weekend will mean New Year revellers should wrap up to see in 2023, he added. He said: “We could see some snow hitting parts of Britain around the New Year period, but this is likely to be restricted to the northern half of the country. “The effects of any stratospheric changes would make their impacts later on in January.” Some meteorologists, however, say forecasting models point to a different picture of a wetter, milder, Atlantic-driven run through the start of 2023.

Half of Earth's glaciers will vanish this century, study finds - The Washington Post New research suggests that even at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustrial levels, the Earth will lose nearly half of its glaciers . A sweeping study of all the world’s glaciers outside of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets has found that nearly half of them will melt by century’s end, even if the world meets its most ambitious global warming goal. The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, finds that even with just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming above preindustrial levels, some 104,000 of the world’s more than 215,000 mountain glaciers and ice caps will melt, raising global sea levels by a little shy of 4 inches. A rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond preindustrial temperatures is now extraordinarily difficult to avoid, suggesting that a change of this magnitude may be nearly unstoppable. With every additional increment of temperature increase, the study finds, the outlook becomes worse. Three degrees C (5.4 degrees F) of warming, the research finds, would translate into a loss of over 70 percent of global glaciers and result in about 5 inches of global sea-level rise. So, even if many losses are baked in, the authors say, it is still worth trying to avoid whatever warming we can. “Any reduction in the temperature increase will have a substantial impact on sea-level rise and the loss of glaciers globally,” said David Rounce, the study’s lead author and a researcher at Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Alaska at Fairbanks. Rounce conducted the research with an international group of glaciologists affiliated with research institutions in Austria, Canada, France, Norway, Switzerland, Britain and the United States. The planet has been gradually losing glacial ice since the peak of the last major ice age, some 20,000 years ago. But there is still a lot to give. The largest amount of remaining ice is concentrated in the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which, accordingly, pose the greatest threat of major sea-level rise. But across the Arctic and Antarctic, as well as in the planet’s more temperate latitudes, many high mountain regions also feature numerous glaciers, where thick ice has accumulated because of centuries or even millennia of snowfall. These glaciers then accumulate more ice in winters and often lose some of it in spring and summer, feeding rivers downstream. Human societies rely on these ice masses for water supplies, often heavily, as in the case of the thick glaciers of the high mountains of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, sometimes called the planet’s “third pole.” Glaciers in this region feed water into massive river systems including the Indus and Ganges. An estimated 1.9 billion people worldwide depend on glaciers for water, the research notes.

Eruption resumes at Kilauea volcano, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Hawaii - The eruption at Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii resumed at approximately 02:34 UTC on January 6, 2023, after nearly a month of pause. At approximately 16:34 HST on January 5, 2023, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) detected a glow in Kīlauea summit webcam images indicating that the eruption has resumed within Halemaʻumaʻu crater in Kīlauea’s summit caldera, within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park. As a result, HVO has elevated Kīlauea’s volcano Alert Level from WATCH to WARNING and its Aviation Color Code from ORANGE to RED as this eruption and associated hazards are evaluated.   “The opening phases of eruptions are dynamic,” HVO volcanologists said. “Webcam imagery shows fissures at the base of Halemaʻumaʻu crater generating lava flows on the surface of the crater floor. The activity is confined to Halemaʻumaʻu and the hazards will be reassessed as the eruption progresses.” The eruption at Kilauea paused on December 13, 2022, coinciding with the end/pause of the eruption at Mauna Loa.

Geomagnetic storms likely on January 4 and 5 due to the combined effects of a CME and CH HSS -Geomagnetic storms reaching G1 – Minor levels are likely on January 4 and 5, 2023 due to combined effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun on December 30 and coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares through January 28. Solar activity was at low to moderate levels from December 26, 2022, to January 1, 2023.1 The largest flare of the period was an M3.7 that erupted from Region 3176 at 19:38 UTC on December 31. Associated with flare M-flare activity on December 30 from Region 3176 was an EIT wave, visible in SUVI 195 imagery around 15:28 UTC on December 30, and a CME signature in subsequent STEREO-A COR2 coronagraph imagery around 16:53 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested onset on January 4. Other significant regions that produced low-level M-flare activity during the period were Region 3169 (N22, L=117, class/area=Fkc/490 on December 27) and Region 3180 (N19, L=309, class/area=Dso/220 on January 1). No other CMEs were determined to be Earth-directed from available coronagraph imagery. goes-x-ray-flux-1-minute-7-days-to-january-2-2023 The other remaining 11 numbered active regions observed during the reporting period were either quiet or only produced C-class activity. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from December 26 to January 1. The highest flux observed was 3 680 pfu at 15:10 UTC on December 30. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm levels. The arrival of a CME that left the Sun on December 24 combined with positive polarity CH HSS influence caused G1 conditions on December 26 and 27. Solar wind speeds during that time ranged between 500 – 600 km/s. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on December 28 and through most of December 29. At the end of December 29, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS caused conditions to again increase to G1 conditions on December 30. Under the influence of the coronal hole, wind speeds increased to between 500 – 600 km/s through the remainder of the reporting period. As total magnetic field strength dropped from a peak of 12 nT on December 30 to between 4 – 7 nt over December 21 and January 1, geomagnetic conditions responded with quiet to active conditions. Forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity from January 2 – 28, 2023 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares, through the outlook period due to multiple M-class flare (R1-Minor) producing regions both on the visible disk and regions on the farside that are due to rotate back onto the disk. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on January 2 -3, January 5 – 9 and 20 – 28. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are likely on January 4 and 5 due to the combined effects of a CME that left the Sun on December 30 and coronal hole effects. G1 conditions are again likely on January 19 and 20, January 26 due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Active conditions are likely on January 2, 6, 18, and 27; unsettled conditions are likely on January 7, 14, 17, 21, 25, and 28. All active and unsettled conditions are in response to anticipated effects from multiple, recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.M

X1.2 solar flare erupts from Active Region 3182 - A major solar flare measuring X1.2 at its peak erupted from Active Region 3182 at 00:57 UTC on January 6, 2023. The event started at 00:43 UTC and ended at 01:07 UTC. A 10 cm Radio Burst (Ten flare), with a peak flux of 420 sfu and lasting 3 minutes, was associated with this event. A 10 cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. \ A shortwave radio blackout caused by the flare affected Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, and islands in the south Pacific Ocean. The location of this region — close to the east limb — does not favor Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMS). However, this will change in the days ahead as it rotates toward the center of the solar disk. This region is the source of a large asymmetric partial halo CME detected on January 3:

As The World Runs Out Of Sand, Chinese 'Pirates' Profit, Plunder, & Pillage - Life is a beach, they say, and we’re all just playing in the sand. Soon, though, there might not be any sand left. That’s because the world is running out of it. Running out of sand, you ask, how can that be? After all, 33 percent of Earth is covered in desert, and many of these deserts have copious amounts of sand (not all of them, though). Yes, that’s true, but desert sand, like sea sand, lacks the compressive strength needed to construct houses, skyscrapers, roads, and bridges. In other words, when it comes to the world of construction, both desert sand and sea sand are utterly useless. This is why there is a race to secure the limited amounts of appropriate sand available.Scarcity breeds desperation and this desperation is particularly palpable in China. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has deployed “pirates” to raid neighboring countries. In truth, the “pirates” have been plundering and pillaging for years. In recent times, however, they have zeroed in on Taiwan, stripping the island of its valuable deposits.The world is experiencing a shortage of just about everything: corn, coffee, wheat, soybeans, plastic cardboard, semiconductor chips, suitably qualified workers, etc.Now, it’s time to add sand, the most-extracted solid material in existence, to this ever-growing, highly-eclectic list. The importance of sand cannot be emphasized enough. Water is the world’s most-consumed natural resource; sand is the second most. Every construction project relies on using sand—the correct type of sand. By 2030, the construction market is expected to be worth $14.4 trillion; two years ago, it was worth $6.4 trillion. We’ll need more sand, but there might not be enough of it to go around. Demand for sand is soaring, and this demand will likely increase dramatically over the next three to four decades. This brings us to China, a country with a voracious appetite for construction-friendly sand. In many ways, the appetite should come as little surprise; when it comes to constructing roads, bridges, and buildings, China leads the way. In an effort to satisfy its appetite, the CCP is targeting its neighbor, Taiwan.

Advanced recycling mines the Meta-verse - Chemical companies aren't just investing in advanced recycling, they're talking about it — a lot. Industry spending on ads mentioning "advanced recycling," a set of technologies that use high temperatures to break down plastic into its basic components, soared in 2022, according to data from Meta, the social media and advertising giant. The American Chemistry Council, which represents Dow, Chevron, ExxonMobil and other chemical and oil companies, spent $265,649 through Dec. 12 on Facebook, Instagram and Messenger ads focused on advanced or chemical recycling, according to Meta data. That's more than double the $97,000 that it spent on the issue in 2021, and six times what it spent in 2020. Advanced recycling has been an increasingly contentious issue in state capitals and in Congress. ACC member companies are making plans to open plants across the country, but some Democrats and environmentalists argue that the technology will prolong dependence on plastic and that its emissions should be more strictly regulated. The ACC's ad buys on advanced recycling fluctuated during the year, rising in late May and building to nearly $10,000 per week in mid-June, around the time that lawmakers in California and Colorado were considering sweeping plastics-recycling bills. Some of the ACC’s ads targeted specific bills, like promoting advanced recycling in New York and Rhode Island — two states with bills that would have labeled chemical recycling as manufacturing, both of which ultimately failed to advance. Some of those ads link to a form allowing users to contact elected officials to advocate for chemical recycling.. ACC's spending on plastics ads in general also rose last month. Its "America’s Plastic Makers" Facebook page spent nearly $1.7 million on Meta ads in the last 90 days as of Jan. 3, the fourth-highest out of all advertisers.

The Steep Cost of Bio-Based Plastic - The backbones of traditional plastics are chains of carbon derived from fossil fuels. Bioplastics instead use carbon extracted from crops like corn or sugarcane, which is then mixed with other chemicals, like plasticizers, found in traditional plastics. Growing those plants pulls carbon out of the atmosphere and locks it inside the bioplastic — if it is used for a permanent purpose, like building materials, rather than single-use cups and bags. At least, that’s the theory. In reality, bio-based plastics are problematic for a variety of reasons. It would take an astounding amount of land and water to grow enough plants to replace traditional plastics — plus energy is needed to produce and ship it all. Bioplastics can be loaded with the same toxic additives that make a plastic plastic, and still splinter into micro-sized bits that corrupt the land, sea, and air. And switching to bioplastics could give the industry an excuse to keep producing exponentially more polymers under the guise of “eco-friendliness,” when scientists and environmentalists agree that the only way to stop the crisis is to just stop producing so much damn plastic, whatever its source of carbon.But let’s say there was a large-scale shift to bioplastics — what would that mean for future emissions? That’s what a new paper in the journal Nature set out to estimate, finding that if a slew of variables were to align — and that’s a very theoretical if — bioplastics could go carbon-negative. The modeling considered four scenarios for how plastics production — and the life cycle of those products — might unfold through the year 2100, modeling even further out than those earlier predictions about production through 2050. The first scenario is a baseline, in which business continues as usual. The second adds a tax on CO₂ emissions, which would make it more expensive to produce fossil-fuel plastics, encouraging a shift toward bio-based plastics and reducing emissions through the end of the century. (It would also incentivize using more renewable energy to produce plastic.) The third assumes the development of a more circular economy for plastics, making them more easily reused or recycled, reducing both emissions and demand. And the last scenario imagines a circular bio-economy, in which much more plastic has its roots in plants, and is used over and over. To be clear, this is a hypothetical scenario, not a prediction for where the plastics industry is actually headed. Many pieces would have to fall together in just the right way for it to work. For one, Stegmann and his colleagues note in their paper, “a fully circular plastics sector will be impossible as long as plastic demand keeps growing.”

New climate reality: Less warming, but worse impacts on the planet - The Washington PostIn the not-so-distant past, scientists predicted that global temperatures would surge dramatically throughout this century, assuming that humans would rely heavily on fossil fuels for decades. But they are revising their forecasts as they track both signs of progress and unexpected hazards.   Accelerating solar and wind energy adoption means global warming probably will not reach the extremes once feared, climate scientists say. At the same time, recent heat, storms and ecological disasters prove, they say, that climate change impacts could be more severe than predicted even with less warming. Researchers are increasingly worried about the degree to which even less-than-extreme increases in global temperatures will intensify heat and storms, irreversibly destabilize natural systems and overwhelm even highly developed societies. Extremes considered virtually impossible not long ago are already occurring.   Scientists pointed to recent signs of societies’ fragility: drought contributing to the Arab Spring uprisings; California narrowly avoiding widespread blackouts amid record-high temperatures; heat waves killing tens of thousands of people each year, including in Europe, the planet’s most developed continent. It’s an indication that — even with successful efforts to reduce emissions and limit global warming — these dramatic swings could devastate many stable societies sooner, and more often, than previously expected. “We see already that extremes are bringing about catastrophe,” said Claudia Tebaldi, an earth scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Wash. “The question is: How are we going to possibly adapt and lower the risk by turning the dial of what we can control?”   And researchers are watching closely to see if the planet is approaching — or even passing — tipping points in climate change: thresholds of ice loss or deforestation that would be so consequential, they would make cascading harms unavoidable.   “People are already dying of climate change right now,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a professor at ETH Zurich’s Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science in Switzerland. “We have started to see events at near-zero probability of happening without human-induced climate change.”   The latest forecasts suggest Earth’s ever-thickening blanket of greenhouse gases has it on a path to warm by more than 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 — a threshold scientists and policymakers have emphasized as one that would usher in catastrophic effects. That is despite efforts to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius through the global treaty known as the Paris agreement, signed at a U.N. climate change conference in 2015. An October report from the United Nations found that if countries uphold even their most aggressive pledges to reduce output of climate change-inducing greenhouse gases, the planet would warm 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. But the latest projections of warming nevertheless show humanity has made progress at reining in some of its planet-warming emissions, scientists said.

Baker Hughes to Supply Key Technology for One of the World’s Largest Offshore Carbon Capture & Sequestration Facilities -- Baker Hughes announced Tuesday it has been awarded a contract to be booked in the fourth quarter of 2022 by Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MMHE) to supply carbon dioxide (CO₂) compression equipment to PETRONAS Carigali Sdn. Bhd.’s Kasawari offshore carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project in Sarawak, Malaysia. The project is expected to be the world’s largest offshore CCS facility, with capacity to reduce CO₂ emissions by 3.3 million tons per annum (MTPA). Building on its broad experience in liquefied natural gas and offshore technologies, Baker Hughes will deliver a state-of-the-art compression solution with minimized footprint and weight, as well as a power density allowing for larger flows per unit and best-in-class efficiency. The compressors will be used to enable the transportation and reinjection of the CO₂ separated from natural gas into a depleted offshore field via a subsea pipeline. The CCS project is expected to significantly reduce CO₂ volume currently emitted via flaring of the overall Kasawari gas development, supporting PETRONAS’ ambitions to unlock Malaysia’s potential to be a global carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) hub and enable the company to progress towards achieving its own net zero carbon emission targets by 2050.

Minnesota PUC to examine Summit Carbon’s CO2 pipeline project | MPR News - The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission will consider the state’s first carbon capture pipeline project application Thursday. Summit Carbon Solutions filed for a permit in September for a liquid carbon dioxide pipeline in Otter Tail and Wilkin counties in Northwest Minnesota. It would connect the Green Plains ethanol plant at Fergus Falls with a network of pipelines. It is part of a $4.5 billion project to collect carbon dioxide emissions from ethanol plants in Minnesota and surrounding states and store the CO2 underground in North Dakota. The commission will discuss whether Summit’s application is complete. Members will also discuss requesting an environmental assessment worksheet, which might lead to a more detailed environmental impact statement. The PUC had also been gathering public comment on the project. Landowners, tribal communities and environmental groups rallied against the proposal, voicing concerns about possible impacts on farmland, and water sources, and to nearby communities. 

Judge overrules Livingston injection well moratorium - A federal judge has ruled that Livingston Parish cannot enforce a moratorium preventing a global gas supply company from conducting seismic tests or building test wells in Lake Maurepas. Air Products, a global hydrogen manufacturing company, sued Livingston Parish’s government in October for adopting a 12-month moratorium on Class V injection wells — which are used to inject non-hazardous materials underground — and "detonation of charges for seismic testing," a moratorium adopted despite the company having received permits from state agencies to perform both in Lake Maurepas within the parish’s bounds. Judge Shelly Dick of the Middle District Court of Louisiana ruled Dec. 26 in favor of a motion for a preliminary injunction against the moratorium and denied a motion from Livingston to dismiss the lawsuit, meaning Air Products’ carbon capture and sequestration project can continue as planned. Livingston councilmembers originally passed the moratorium so they could have more time to research and regulate carbon sequestration projects to ensure the residents' safety. Livingston Parish President Layton Ricks said this legal outcome was expected, noting Parish Attorney Chris Moody advised the council when they passed the moratorium that it likely would not hold up in court because of the state’s jurisdiction over the project. Air Products plans to open a $4.5-billion hydrogen manufacturing complex in Ascension Parish by 2026 that would store its carbon output a mile beneath Lake Maurepas. State officials and industry experts alike have welcomed carbon capture and sequestration projects as a means of meeting net-zero carbon emissions goals. In order to obtain the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency permits necessary to complete the project, the company must take preliminary measurements of the subsurface through seismic surveys and Class V injection wells. Seismic testing in the lake began in December and will run through the spring. The two Class V injection wells slated for this project will be built within the bounds of Livingston and St. John parishes to collect geotechnical data for the company.

Meet the renewable energy source poised for growth with the help of the oil industry - Geothermal energy — the technology that harnesses the heat beneath the Earth’s crust — is drawing fresh interest after lawmakers boosted funding flows for it in the bipartisan infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act, dovetailing with advances in technology, new state incentives and interest from the oil drilling sector. While the next generation of geothermal projects are still in the early stages of development, advocates say the underground energy source has the potential to supply more than 60 gigawatts of firm, flexible power by 2050 — a more than 15-fold jump from the 3.7 GW of capacity it now has in the United States. “Not since, say the 1970s, where there was a huge pivot to the geothermal side of the house, have we seen the type of interest that we’re seeing today,” said Kelly Blake, president of the board of directors at Geothermal Rising, a geothermal-focused trade association. “It just really seems as though geothermal has an upward trajectory at the moment, in terms of innovation, funding, interest at all levels of business, but also the government,” Blake added. The Biden administration is pushing oil and gas companies to take a serious look at incorporating geothermal projects into their business plans. At a December meeting of the National Petroleum Council, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm described geothermal as a favorite topic of hers. “That’s kind of irresistible when you consider the skills set and the know-how that this industry already has in extracting energy from the subsurface,” Granholm told the gathering of oil companies executives, which included Exxon CEO and Chair Darren Woods. “I know you manage [carbon] molecules, but you can manage a lot of things. Think: You drill holes, too. You go beneath the surface, you know where things are. And fracking really opens up a huge opportunity for enhanced geothermal.”

How ocean wind power could help the US fossil fuel industry -- Offshore wind farms in the Gulf of Mexico proposed by the Biden administration could generate enough electricity for 3.1m homes in Texas and Louisiana. But industry is eyeing the potential for offshore wind farms to instead power oil refining, steel and fertilizer manufacturing and other industrial processes. The administration has committed to building 30 gigawatts of offshore wind to power 10m homes nationally by 2030 to help boost renewable energy in the country. But multiple companies interested in leasing offshore parcels in the Gulf of Mexico want to use that energy to make renewable hydrogen to power industrial processes to reduce their carbon footprint. The so-called “green” hydrogen could be sent to shore via the gulf’s existing extensive oil and gas pipeline network and replace traditional hydrogen made from fossil fuels. Green hydrogen could reduce the state’s carbon emissions by as much as 68% and spark an industrial revolution, according to proponents. The approach, yet to be tested anywhere in the world, is being criticized by some as inefficient and a way to prolong the life of the region’s oil and gas industry even as the International Energy Agency has called for a halt to the development and production of oil and gas to keep climate pollution at manageable levels. “Hydrogen is, at worst, a false solution and, at best, potentially a distraction,” said Kendall Dix, national policy director for Taproot Earth, a grassroots activist organization concerned with climate pollution. “If you want to have an energy system that is truly climate and people-friendly, we need to focus on building out renewable energy and using that to help people.” Lower carbon business After leasing offshore tracts for offshore wind off the Atlantic coast, the federal government, through the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), is now turning to the Gulf of Mexico as part of President Joe Biden’s plan to create enough wind power for 10m homes by 2030. BOEM plans to issue leases in two areas of the Gulf of Mexico for wind next summer: one about 91 miles off Lake Charles, Louisiana, and a second 29 miles off the coast of Galveston, Texas. In response to the government request for feedback, about 10 companies expressed interest in establishing offshore wind farms in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell New Energies is among them, saying in an eight-page letter submitted to BOEM that it wants to build a “lower carbon power business” by producing green hydrogen. Utility Entergy also has expressed interest in building out wind farms to create traditional renewable electricity. Shell did not respond to multiple requests for an interview.

Gary group asks Indiana to revoke Clean Air Act permit for waste-to-fuel plant =- With updates coming in trickles on the progress of the nation’s largest waste-to-fuel plant slated for Gary, opponents are taking steps to make sure the facility won’t open until its questions are answered. GARD (Gary Advocates for Responsible Development), a group of Gary and northwest Indiana residents maintain the plant will bring more air pollution to a region and its residents already burdened with dangerous levels of pollutants. Since its initial announcement in December 2018, Fulcrum BioEnergy has spent the last 4 years securing financing and gaining regulatory approval for its proposed Fulcrum Centerpoint plant in Gary’s Buffington Harbor. The proposed $600 million facility to convert household trash into jet fuel achieved one of its regulatory milestones in August when the Indiana Dept. of Environmental Management issued the plant a Clean Air Act permit. That permit gave Fulcrum the go-ahead to begin construction on the Centerpoint facility. The next month GARD filed a petition with the Indiana Office of Environmental Adjudication asking for a review of the permitting process, claiming IDEM and Fulcrum violated Indiana law. At GARD’s December 15, 2022 morning press conference, spokesperson Kimmie Gordon announced an amendment to that petition would be filed the next day, Friday, December 16. GARD has gained an ally in Chicago’s Environmental Law & Policy Center, a law firm that helps communities in the Midwest tackle land, air, and water use issues.

The Biden Administration could halt TVA’s gas plans. A petition is asking for just that.- Jeff Lyash, the CEO of the Tennessee Valley Authority, could finalize a recommendation to build a new natural gas plant west of Nashville as soon as Monday.  Since the TVA Board voted to give this decision-making power solely to Lyash back in 2021, only three things could change the outcome: the Environmental Protection Agency uses its legal authority, President Biden intervenes, or TVA has a change of heart.  In a statement to WPLN, TVA said they want to create a carbon-free energy future during this “generational transition.” This comes just days after the federal utility issued rolling blackouts related to coal and gas failures during the Arctic storm.   TVA has not provided any indication that they would be slowing their gas plans, even as stakeholders ask more federal agencies to get involved. On Thursday, more than 100 organizations submitted a letter to EPA urging the agency to take this issue to the executive branch. This list of signatures includes environmental groups, like the Sierra Club and Appalachian Voices, faith-based groups, like Alabama Interfaith Power & Light, and medical groups, like the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments.“The EPA can either use its legal power to advance the clean energy economy or, given the alternative of no action, can needlessly sign off on dangerous fossil fuel expansion,” the letter reads.   EPA determined, last summer, that TVA did not meet requirements under the National Environmental Policy Act for the proposed gas plant at the Cumberland Fossil Plant site, where TVA will fully shutter its largest coal plant by 2028. In comments to TVA, EPA requested that the utility “transparently disclose” the modeling methodologies and assumptions used to make claims, including the costs of both a new natural gas plant and a solar-plus-storage project. The final environmental review did not provide this data, and it left out many environmental costs. Natural gas plants require drilling, often in the form of fracking, pipelines and methane burning. People living near drilling sites have increased health risks — a recent study from Yale University linked children living near fracking wells to leukemia – and people living near gas pipelines face risks of fires and explosions.

As another winter storm strains the electric grid, it's time to fix transmission, experts say - The deadly winter storm, christened Elliott by the Weather Channel, that tore through much of the United States over the Christmas weekend placed a huge strain on the American electric grid, pushing it past the breaking point in some places. Frigid temperatures, in some places setting records, drove a surge in electric demand while also causing big problems for gas, coal and other power plants that took electric generation offline just when it was needed most. That forced some southeastern utilities to cut power to thousands of people on a rotating basis, and led grid operators to urge customers to conserve power. “Supply and demand for electricity have to exactly balance in real time,” said Michael Goggin, a longtime electric industry analyst and vice president at Grid Strategies, a consulting firm focused on clean energy integration. “If not, in a matter of seconds the grid can collapse.” The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation announced Wednesday that they will open a joint investigation into the power system’s performance.“There will be multiple lessons learned from last week’s polar vortex that will inform future winter preparations,” said Jim Robb, president and CEO of NERC, the nonprofit regulator that sets and enforces reliability standards for the bulk power system in the U.S.   “This storm underscores the increasing frequency of significant extreme weather events (the fifth major winter event in the last 11 years) and underscores the need for the electric sector to change its planning scenarios and preparations for extreme events.”But for some experts, a major lesson from the storm is already plain, and it’s the same as learned in past severe winter weather: The U.S. grid needs to be better connected to enable power to be moved easily to where it’s needed in moments of crisis.“Although this was a massive event that ultimately affected huge parts of the country, there were geographic elements to it,” said Ari Peskoe, director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School. “The attention belongs on the transmission system.”

Bomb cyclone sparks fierce debate over grid readiness - Christmas week’s fierce “bomb cyclone” has put new urgency behind a critical issue for the nation’s power system — how grid owners and operators prepare for extreme weather emergencies. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), the grid security monitor, are beginning a joint investigation of Winter Storm Elliott, which swept across the U.S. with deadly cold, paralyzing snowstorms and destructive winds. On Christmas Eve, over 1.6 million U.S. customers lacked power, PowerOutage.us reported. At the storm’s peak impact, more than 60 percent of the country was under winter weather alerts, weather.com reported. That came after NERC warned in November that areas of the U.S. that face prolonged winter weather could see power supplies “seriously challenged” by harsh new storm assaults. “The effects of Winter Storm Elliott demonstrate yet again that our bulk power system is critical to public safety and health,” outgoing FERC Chair Richard Glick said in a Wednesday news release announcing the inquiry. Jim Robb, NERC’s chief executive, said much will be learned from last month’s winter storm. Some areas saw planned power outages known as load shedding to help keep the grid stable. “In addition to the load shedding in Tennessee and the Carolinas, multiple energy emergencies were declared and new demand records were set across the continent,” Robb said in a statement, adding that it “underscores the need for the electric sector to change its planning scenarios and preparations for extreme events.” As the storm hit, Robb’s organization, which drafts federal grid resilience and security regulations for consideration by FERC, was in a rare debate with regional grid organizations over how far power plant owners must go to safeguard their facilities against the worst winter barrages. The crux of the dispute involves power plant winterization rules written by a NERC standards committee and submitted in October to FERC for approval. The proposal sets low temperature benchmarks that owners of existing and new generation must use in designing freeze protection measures to safeguard their installations. NERC’s proposal is a part of its response to Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, which battered the central United States. Hardest hit was Texas, where generators and gas supply lines froze, cutting power to more than 4 million customers and killing over 200 people.

Physical attacks on power grid surge to new peak - The U.S. power grid is suffering a decade-high surge in attacks as extremists, vandals and cyber criminals increasingly take aim at the nation’s critical infrastructure. Physical and computerized assaults on the equipment that delivers electricity are at their highest level since at least 2012, including 101 reported this year through the end of August, according to federal records examined by POLITICO. The previous peak was the 97 incidents recorded for all of 2021. This year’s tally doesn’t even include 2022’s most visible attack — the shootings of two Duke Energy substations that knocked out power to 45,000 people in Moore County, N.C. And the lights went dark on Christmas Day for 14,000 customers in Washington state after four Tacoma Public Utilities and Puget Sound Energy substations were vandalized, with no suspects in custody, the Pierce County Sheriff’s Department said in a statement on Sunday. “It is unknown if there are any motives or if this was a coordinated attack on the power systems,” the department said. Authorities have yet to identify any suspects in the North Carolina attack, and have only been able to speculate about the motive. But white nationalists, neo-Nazis and other domestic extremists seeking to sow unrest have taken responsibility for other high-profile attempts to take down swaths of the grid — prompting security experts to grow increasingly concerned about the U.S. electricity system’s vulnerability. The risks have also caught the attention of federal regulators who oversee the interstate power network. “Is there something more sinister going on?” Richard Glick, chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, told reporters last week. “Are there people planning this?... I don’t think anyone knows that right now. But there’s no doubt that the numbers are up in terms of reported incidents.” Adding to those worries: The number of potential attack points for the grid is set to increase as the Biden administration and Congress seek to expand the power system to accommodate renewable energy such as wind and solar. The rising demand for power for electric vehicles also increases the urgency of securing the grid from attack.

Low water levels have created an energy crisis at the world’s largest dam -  The water level at the world’s largest man-made dam — which generates hydroelectric power for millions of people in Zambia and Zimbabwe — has dropped to a record low, forcing local energy companies to make drastic cuts. The cuts mean no electricity for large portions of the day in these countries, adversely affecting the region’s economy and way of life for its residents. The Kariba Dam regulates the flow of water into the Zambezi River, which straddles the border between the two countries, from Lake Kariba, which is formed by the dam. But because of a lack of rainfall and low inflow from the upstream portion of the river and its tributaries, Lake Kariba’s water level fell below 1 percent of capacity on Dec. 28, compared with 20 percent one year earlier, according to data from the Zambezi River Authority. The dam generally produces 1,080 megawatts of electricity output for Zambia and 1,050 megawatts to Zimbabwe. Now, both countries are limited to less than 400 megawatts. Zambia’s leading power company, ZESCO, which supplies energy to over 80 percent of the country, said early Wednesday that it would immediately increase the length of power cuts from six hours to 12 hours. In a statement, ZESCO said that, as of Dec. 31, the water level was at 475.60 meters above sea level, “a situation that has necessitated the reduction of generation.” It added that the reduction, to below 400 megawatts, affected “the ability to meet the system load/customer power demand, especially during morning and evening peak demand periods.” Because of the insufficient levels, Zimbabweans have been forced to endure 19 hours of power outages a day. The shortage is bringing challenges for small businesses and households that can’t afford alternative electricity supplies and rely on hydroelectric power for their daily activities. “Everyone in Zambia now is nervous about the shortage of electricity due to the load shedding being implemented currently by ZESCO,” Archie Mulunda, a civil rights activist based in Kitwe, Zambia, told The Washington Post. He worries that power outages will cause food to spoil in supermarkets and that other small businesses will be “seriously affected.” He fears that the outages will make it nearly impossible to use his desktop computer, affecting his ability to work from home. Mulunda, 40, is also nervous about what the extended power outages will mean for his wife and three children, who will be home until the middle of January because of school break.

Nuclear Fusion: Don’t Believe the Hype!​ -  In a dramatic scientific and engineering breakthrough, researchers at the Bay Area's Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory recently achieved the long-sought goal of generating a nuclear fusion reaction that produced more energy than was directly injected into a tiny reactor vessel. By the very next day, pundits well across the political spectrum were touting that breakthrough as a harbinger of a new era in energy production, suggesting that a future of limitless, low-impact fusion energy was perhaps a few decades away. In reality, however, commercially viable nuclear fusion is only infinitesimally closer than it was back in the 1980s when a contained fusion reaction—i.e. not occurring in the sun or from a bomb—was first achieved. While most honest writers have at least acknowledged the obstacles to commercially-scaled fusion, they typically still underestimate them—as much so today as back in the 1980s. We are told that a fusion reaction would have to occur "many times a second" to produce usable amounts of energy. But the blast of energy from the LBL fusion reactor actually only lasted one tenth of a nanosecond—that's a ten-billionth of a second. Apparently other fusion reactions (with a net energy loss) have operated for a few nanoseconds, but reproducing this reaction over a billion times every second is far beyond what researchers are even contemplating.We are told that the reactor produced about 1.5 times the amount of energy that was input, but this only counts the laser energy that actually struck the reactor vessel. That energy, which is necessary to generate temperatures over a hundred million degrees, was the product of an array of 192 high-powered lasers, which required well over 100 times as much energy to operate. Third, we are told that nuclear fusion will someday free up vast areas of land that are currently needed to operate solar and wind power installations. But the entire facility needed to house the 192 lasers and all the other necessary control equipment was large enough to contain three football fields, even though the actual fusion reaction takes place in a gold or diamond vessel smaller than a pea. All this just to generate the equivalent of about 10-20 minutes of energy that is used by a typical small home. Clearly, even the most inexpensive rooftop solar systems can already do far more. And Prof. Mark Jacobson's group at Stanford University has calculated that a total conversion to wind, water and solar power might use about as much land as is currently occupied by the world's fossil fuel infrastructure.

FirstEnergy to pay $3.9m fine for withholding lobbying info from federal regulators - cleveland.com – FirstEnergy Corp. failed to disclose nearly $94 million in lobbying in support of legislation now at the center of a criminal public corruption scandal and agreed last week to pay a related $3.9 million fine.In a consent agreement released Friday, the company and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said FirstEnergy failed to include material information for a broad audit that included an examination of the company’s lobbying efforts behind House Bill 6 in 2019.That legislation will be at the center of a public corruption trial set to begin this month for former GOP House Speaker Larry Householder and lobbyist and former state Republican Party chairman Matt Borges. Both have been accused of racketeering and pleaded not guilty.In 2019 and 2020, FirstEnergy withheld information from FERC about lobbying payments regarding HB6 and millions in payments to Householder and Sam Randazzo, the former chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Ohio, the audit states.After the arrest of Householder and four allies, FirstEnergy provided regulators with more complete information about its lobbying efforts. Those records indicate it spent nearly $94 million pushing for the bill. That includes nearly $71 million to 501(c)(4) nonprofits – which need not disclose their donors, earning them the nickname “dark money” – and $22.8 million to Randazzo, who has not been charged with a crime and denies wrongdoing.These figures eclipse those within a statement of facts attached to a deferred prosecution agreement FirstEnergy entered with the U.S. Department of Justice. There, the company admitted to paying nearly $60 million to a nonprofit secretly controlled by Householder and “over $22 million” to Randazzo over the course of roughly a decade, including $4.3 million just before he assumed his perch as a regulator.

Utica Shale Academy seeks funds for new building project -   The Utica Shale Academy is seeking further expansion and has applied for $2.4 million to construct a new building in Salineville.Superintendent Bill Watson said an application has been made to the governor’s office on Appalachia and would match current funds to help erect a total $4.8 million, two-story facility on grounds that USA owns along East Main Street. The site, which is located adjacent to the Hutson Building, would feature 5,090 square feet of space for offices, several classrooms, machinery, lockers and restrooms for those working with heavy equipment operation, plus students can also learn CNC plasma cutting. A building has been razed with work on the separate 2,800-square-feet outdoor welding lab currently ongoing, and Watson said officials hope to learn later this year if the construction project will become a reality.  “We submitted for a $4.8 million project to the Governor’s Office on Appalachia, but we had nearly 50-percent leverage with two $600,000 equity grants and some ESSER (Emergency Elementary and Secondary School Relief) funding and asked for $2.4 million to build a facility next to the welding lab,” Watson said. “It will be for heavy equipment operation and will also be used for recovery to work. I’ve reached out to [jails and public health commissions in] Jefferson, Columbiana and Mahoning counties to work with recovering addicts and get them back into the workforce.” The expansion comes on the heels of the acquisition of the former Huntington Bank building at 50 E. Main St., which is being used as the Energy Center in collaboration with Youngstown State University. That building was acquired in partnership with YSU using funds from a $300,000 capital budget bill allocation which was acquired by Ohio Sen. Michael Rulli and Rep. Tim Ginter (both R-Salem), and the facility houses megatronics, hydraulics, pneumatics, AC/DC electric, Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC’s), diesel mechanics and horticulture. Watson said the original Hutson Building just a few doors away at 70 E. Main St. incorporates general classrooms and Virtual Learning Academy (VLA) programming through the Jefferson County Educational Service Center while the new sites will focus on career-tech education.

Utica Shale students build skills -— Students at the Utica Shale Academy are building their skills to become workers of tomorrow. Members of the National Center for Construction Education and Research (NCCER) core construction class have been gaining experience prepping their new digs at the former Huntington Bank building just a few doors down from the main school site on East Main Street in Salineville. Most recently, they have been literally laying the groundwork by adding flooring to the facility. “They are learning to do small construction and worked on wiring, drywall and flooring at the Huntington Bank building,” said Superintendent Bill Watson. “For two months they’ve painted, did drywall and lighting and will redo the trim and restaining trim work. We’ve had 15 students work intermittently on projects.” The brick flooring was donated by Summitville Tile, which employs current and past USA students. Watson noted that the concrete work outside the building was also part of NCCER. The program recently expanded after acquiring the former bank building for career and workforce development with a classroom, offices and a hands-on work area while the original Hutson Building houses the career-tech skills training and online curriculum. The Huntington building was purchased in partnership with Youngstown State University using funds from a $300,000 capital budget bill location, thanks to Ohio Sen. Michael Rulli and Rep. Tim Ginter (both R-Salem). The academy has expanded beyond oil and gas and now includes megatronics, PLC’s, Internet-based courses, AC/DC electronics, pneumatics and hydraulics and electrical relays as well as a multimeter panel for electrical monitoring. Students are also learning how to operate construction and related vehicles and the indoor/outdoor welding lab should be open over the next year. USA has also partnered with YSU to permit students to use the university’s Skills Accelerator program. USA uses the Virtual Learning Academy through the Jefferson County Educational Service Center for online learning and a hands-on education that allows students to prepare for the workforce while still in high school.

Pa. gas industry report shows production, inspections increased in 2021 -   -- Pennsylvania natural gas drillers pulled even more gas from the ground in 2021 than they did the year before. It’s the latest in a pattern of annual record-setting for the industry. The Department of Environmental Protection’s most recent annual report shows that the pace of new drilling slowed in recent years, but the combination of old and new wells enabled companies to extract a record amount of gas. Operators drilled 648 new wells last year, an increase from the 527 drilled in 2020, but less than the number of wells drilled in 2017, 2018, and 2019. In 2021, drillers reported producing more than 7.6 trillion cubic feet of gas. That’s about half a billion more cubic feet than was extracted in 2020. The industry has consistently broken annual records in the last decade, thanks to the rise of unconventional drilling, which allows companies to get harder-to-reach deposits through fracking and horizontal drilling. Meanwhile, the conventional section of the industry – generally made of shallower, vertical wells – has been producing less gas year over year since 2014. Wider use of natural gas in Pennsylvania has edged out coal, bringing down the state’s carbon dioxide emissions. But natural gas is mostly made of methane, a gas with 80 times more warming power than CO2 over a 20 year period, and methane can leak at different points in the process. The Wolf Administration finalized rules this year to limit leaks of volatile organic compounds and methane at oil and gas sites, though the regulation exempts many low-producing wells. Climate scientists agree the world needs to quickly ramp down fossil fuel use to avoid the worst effects of global warming. DEP says it increased inspections at natural gas sites last year, after the COVID-19 pandemic limited site visits the year before. The report shows inspectors did more than 34,000 compliance inspections in 2021, about 8,000 more than the year before but still less than previous years. Inspectors found more than 8,600 violations and collected over $2.5 million in fines. DEP highlighted a drop in permit processing times. Republican lawmakers have often criticized the agency for not issuing permits fast enough. DEP issued 997 new drilling permits in 2021. It took an average of 20 days to issue a permit in the southwest district of the state and 22 days in the northwest.

State shines a light on gas production, solar guidelines - Pennsylvania – not surprisingly – continues to be the second largest natural gas producer in the United States. This is according to the state Department of Environmental Protection, which recently released its 2021 Oil and Gas Annual Report showing the Keystone State still lags behind only Texas, thanks to an abundance of natural gas beneath us in the Marcellus and Utica shales. The data also show that production and compliance inspections in Pennsylvania increased significantly in 2021 compared with the year before. More than 7.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas was produced from unconventional and conventional gas wells statewide in 2021, the largest volume recorded in the state in a single year. That was up from the 2020 figure of about 793 billion. The vast majority of the combined output from each year was from unconventional – fracked – wells. DEP personnel, according to the report, completed 34,145 compliance inspections at conventional and unconventional well sites in 2021, 8,200 more than the 2020 figure. All inspections are conducted electronically. Personnel from the agency issued 770 unconventional well permits in 2021, about 150 fewer than the previous year. DEP attributed that decrease to sustained low commodity prices and longer well bores. An interactive map of oil and gas locations by DEP showed heavy activity in Washington and Greene counties, which are historically among the most productive areas in Pennsylvania. Well sites also were prevalent in western Fayette, southern Beaver and southern Butler counties. Ramez Ziadeh, DEP’s acting secretary, said in a statement: “In 2021, DEP remained committed to enforcing violations of the oil and gas industry. Governor (Tom) Wolf and DEP continued their priority of maintaining environmental protection for Pennsylvania’s residents and visitors.” The DEP 2021 oil and gas report can be accessed online at www.dep.pa.gov.  

EQT completes pneumatics replacement programme -   EQT, the largest natural gas producer in the US, said January 4 it had completed a $28mn programme to eliminate all natural gas-powered pneumatic devices from its production operations.Swapping out nearly 9,000 gas-actuated controllers with “fit-for-purpose” technology – primarily electric actuators and compressed air controllers – has reduced EQT’s methane emissions by 70% and reduced its annual carbon footprint by 305,614 metric tons of CO₂-equivalent. EQT’s natural gas and natural gas liquids sales volumes averaged about 5.3bn ft³/day-equivalent in Q3 2022, virtually all of it from the Marcellus and Utica shale horizons in the Appalachian Basin.The natural gas-powered pneumatic devices were the source of about 39% of EQT’s production-related Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, the company said.“We told the world we were aggressively addressing methane emissions and we did what we promised,” EQT CEO Toby Rice said. “As the nation’s largest natural gas producer, EQT not only delivered on its commitment to eliminate a major source of methane emissions in our operations, we also did it in a cost effective, expedient way.” The conversion programme spanned 515 days and was completed a year ahead of schedule. Over the course of the initiative, 341 air compressors were installed and 451 dump assemblies and 381 motor valves were retrofitted to electric actuators.

Updated MVP Draft Forest Environmental Review Seen Arriving Ahead of Schedule - Earlier than expected, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) has released a draft version of an updated environmental review needed for the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s (MVP) proposed 3.5-mile crossing of the Jefferson National Forest along the Virginia-West Virginia border. Notice of the availability of the draft supplemental environmental impact statement (EIS) was published in the Federal Register on Dec. 23, ahead of the planned January release date previously shared by the agency.The USFS developed the latest EIS document after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in January 2022 vacated the agency’s decision to authorize the natural gas conduit’s planned crossing of national forest lands. The USFS had issued the vacated authorization in January 2021 after developing an earlier supplemental environmental review in 2020. That process was set in motion after the Fourth Circuit vacated the agency’s initial approval of the embattled pipeline project.The release of the USFS draft environmental review puts the federal permitting process for MVP’s Jefferson National Forest crossing about five weeks ahead of schedule, analysts at ClearView Energy Partners LLC estimated, citing information from regulators shared in the fall. The latest developments would put a September target for issuing updated federal approvals for the national forest crossing, needed from the both USFS and the Bureau of Land Management, “very much within reach,” the ClearView analysts added. “If the final EIS is issued at the end of March (or close to it) the review may conclude earlier than initially planned.”MVP, a joint venture of EQM Midstream Partners LP, NextEra Capital Holdings Inc., Con Edison Transmission Inc., WGL Midstream, and RGC Midstream LLC, has said it remains “committed to working diligently with federal and state regulators to secure the necessary permits to safely and responsibly finish construction, and we remain committed to bringing” the project “into service in the second half of 2023.”Total work on the project is nearly 94% complete, according to the developer.

Haynesville Activity Slows as U.S. Drilling Numbers Pull Back in Latest BKR Count - Including a drop-off in Haynesville Shale activity, declines in both natural gas and oil drilling saw the U.S. rig count drop seven units to 772 for the week ended Friday (Jan. 6), according to the latest count from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). Four natural gas-directed rigs exited the patch domestically, alongside three oil-directed rigs. Land drilling declined by eight rigs overall, while the Gulf of Mexico count rose one unit to end at 16. Domestic declines included six horizontal rigs and one vertical rig, with directional drilling unchanged week/week. The combined 772 active U.S. rigs as of Friday compares with 588 rigs running in the year-earlier period, according to the BKR numbers, which are based partly on data from Enverus. The Canadian rig count rebounded to end the week at 189, a net increase of 105 rigs, with activity there largely recovering from steep losses posted in mid-December. Gains included 88 oil-directed rigs and 17 natural gas-directed rigs, according to BKR. Counting by major drilling region, the Haynesville posted a three-rig decline for the period, with the Arkoma Woodford and Marcellus Shale each dropping one rig from their respective totals. The Granite Wash added two rigs week/week, while the Mississippian Lime and Utica Shale each added one, according to the BKR data. Counting by state, Oklahoma saw a three rig decline overall for the week, while California, Louisiana and New Mexico each posted declines of two rigs. Texas added two rigs for the period, while Ohio added one.

Tokyo Gas to purchase U.S. natural gas producer for $4.6 billion - — A Tokyo Gas Co. unit is in advanced talks to buy U.S. natural gas producer Rockcliff Energy in a deal worth about $4.6 billion, including debt, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Houston-based TG Natural Resources, which is majority-owned by Tokyo Gas, is discussing purchasing Rockcliff from private equity firm Quantum Energy Partners, said the person, who requested anonymity discussing confidential information. An all-cash deal could be announced as soon as this month, though it’s possible — as with all deals that aren’t finalized — that terms change or talks collapse. Representatives for Quantum Energy Partners and Tokyo Gas declined to comment. Rockcliff didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment. This is the latest move by an Asian firm to secure natural gas supply amid the global energy crisis. Tokyo Gas purchases liquefied natural gas from the U.S. Procuring a producer like Rockcliff gives it exposure to upstream prices. Inpex Corp., Japan’s top gas explorer, inked a deal last month to procure LNG from a U.S. project for 20 years. Jera Co., Japan’s top power producer, bought a $2.5 billion stake in a U.S. LNG exporter in 2021. Bloomberg reported last year that Rockcliff was weighing its possible sale worth $4 billion or more. Founded in 2015, the company pumps the daily equivalent of more than 1 Bcfg from the Haynesville Shale in East Texas.

 U.S. natgas futures drop 11% to 10-month low on warmer Jan forecasts    (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures collapsed about 11% to a 10-month low on Tuesday as volatility continues into 2023 on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and lower heating demand in January than previously expected. In 2022, U.S. gas futures had their most volatile year yet, with both implied and historic volatility at record highs as soaring global gas prices fed demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. After several delays, Freeport expects the facility to return in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Freeport shut on June 8 after a pipe failure caused an explosion due to inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired to review the incident and suggest action. Several vessels, including Prism Diversity, Prism Courage, Prism Agility and Elisa Larus, were waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport. Some of those ships - Prism Diversity and Prism Courage - have been there since early November. Other ships were sailing toward the plant, including Corcovado LNG, which is expected to arrive in mid January, and Kmarin Diamond and Wilforce in late January. Front-month gas futures for February delivery fell 48.7 cents, or 10.9%, to settle at $3.988 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Feb. 11. That was the contract's fourth decline in a row and its biggest daily percentage drop since Dec. 19 when it fell 11.4%. For the year, spot gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana averaged $6.44 per mmBtu in 2022, their highest since hitting a record high of $8.86 in 2008. That compares with $3.91 in 2021 and a five-year (2017-2021) average of $2.93. Gas was trading at $22 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $29 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.

Natural Gas Futures Rebound Wednesday, but Forecasts Show Unseasonably Mild Weather - Natural gas futures found fresh footing in positive territory Wednesday, marking the first gain of 2023, amid estimates for a massive storage withdrawal report. After dropping 48.7 cents in the previous session and closing below $4.00, the February Nymex natural gas futures contract on Wednesday gained 18.4 cents day/day and settled at $4.172/MMBtu. Gas for delivery in March rose 13.9 cents to $3.780. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 93.5 cents to $5.370 on Wednesday, led lower by declines in western markets. Still, while natural gas cash markets gave up ground overall, costs in the West remained lofty, with several hubs posting prices three times greater than the national average. A punishing snowstorm that dropped more than 20 inches of snow in areas of the Rockies and northern Plains early this week lingered on Wednesday, delivering freezing rain and more snow as it spread over the Upper Midwest. Cold January rains – and anticipated flooding – emerged Wednesday in California and were expected to drag into Thursday, supporting demand there. “There’s no doubt” futures traders “have the eyes on the back of their heads wide open, looking at some of those key spot markets and taking note of the strong prices,” Marex North America LLC’s Steve Blair, senior account executive, told NGI. The latest bouts of winter weather followed frigid temperatures late in December that analysts expect resulted in a large pull of natural gas from underground stockpiles. Bitter chills late last year also froze wells in Montana, North Dakota and elsewhere, taking about 20% of U.S. gas supply temporarily offline, according to East Daley Analytics. Estimates for the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Thursday storage report, covering the week ended Dec. 30, showed the market widely expecting a much larger-than-normal withdrawal. Projections submitted to Reuters ranged from withdrawals of 153 Bcf to 269 Bcf, with a median pull of 237 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey landed at a median pull of 240 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal’s poll found draw estimates from 156 Bcf to 265 Bcf and an average of a 228 Bcf pull. NGI estimated an inventory decrease of 237 Bcf.

U.S. natgas sinks nearly 11% to 1-year trough on low storage draw, warm weather forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged close to 11% to a one-year low on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather to continue into late January. That should keep heating demand low during what is usually the coldest part of the year and allow utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual in coming weeks. "January 2023 is off to the warmest start in more than 15 years - sending the ... gas contract cratering (over) 40% in under three weeks," "The extreme transition from record-breaking Christmas cold to exceptional warmth to start 2023 is leading to market whiplash." The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 221 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 30. That was smaller than expected but larger than usual because colder-than-normal weather last week prompted consumers to burn more gas to heat their homes and businesses. The storage drop was less than the 228-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decrease of 46 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 98 bcf. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.891 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.7% below the five-year average of 3.099 tcf for this time of year. After jumping about 5% on Wednesday, front-month gas futures on Thursday dropped 45.2 cents, or 10.8%, to settle at $3.72 per million British thermal units, the contract's lowest close since Jan. 4, 2022. That put the front-month down about 44% over the past three weeks. Traders said the market's biggest uncertainty remains when Freeport LNG will restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.3 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December but still below the monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Even though the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through late-January, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 110.4 bcfd this week to 121.6 bcfd next week as temperatures ease ahead of what are usually the coldest weeks of the year.

 Overnight Weather Data ‘Couldn’t Be More Bearish’ as Natural Gas Futures Extend Slide --   Seemingly relentless warmth in the January temperature outlook, reinforced by milder overnight forecast trends, kept the pressure on natural gas futures in early trading Friday. After a 45.2-cent sell-off in the previous session, the February Nymex contract was off another 9.2 cents to $3.628/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.Starting from an already “exceptionally warm and bearish” outlook, both the American and European weather models trended notably warmer overnight in terms of degree day totals, according to NatGasWeather.“To our view, the overnight weather data couldn’t be more bearish,” NatGasWeather said.National heating degree days (HDD) for the 15-day projection period were down more than 110 HDD versus norms, equating to nearly 180 Bcf less demand, according to the firm.“What also makes the coming pattern emphatically bearish is recent weather data maintains the frigid cold pool remaining locked over northern Canada through Jan. 20, suggesting colder air shouldn’t be expected into the U.S. until near or after Jan. 25,” NatGasWeather added.Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 221 Bcf natural gas from underground storage for the week ended Dec. 30, far outpacing the five-year average 98 Bcf pull. Still, the print disappointed versus pre-report expectations. Major polls had found analysts anticipating a pull in the high 220s Bcf to high 230s Bcf. NGI modeled a 237 Bcf decrease.Total Lower 48 working gas in underground storage stood at 2,891 Bcf as of Dec. 30, a 208 Bcf (minus 6.7%) deficit versus the five-year average, according to EIA.

US LNG Exports in 2022 Match Qatar, #1 in the World. US Natural Gas Price Plunges 11% Today, 40% in 2 Weeks by Wolf Richter - US exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in 2022, at 81.2 million tons, matched those of Qatar, the #1 LNG exporter in the world, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The US would have been #1 if an explosion in June hadn’t shut down the Freeport natural gas liquefaction plant in Texas, which cut LNG export capacity by 17%.Qatar’s LNG exports have been relatively stable for the past 10 years, according to Bloomberg’s ship-tracking data. But the country is now engaged in major expansion projects amid a surge in global demand for LNG.US LNG exports began to surge in 2016 from near-nothing when the first major LNG export terminal – originally an LNG import terminal – came on line. Since then, vast sums have been invested to build and expand LNG export facilities mostlyin Louisiana and Texas, but also in Maryland and Georgia.US LNG exports, in billion cubic feet, according to the US EIA’s latest data through October: In addition, five export terminals are now under construction in the US, and 11 export terminals have been approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, but are not yet under construction, according to FERC as of its latest update on December 13.The explosion in June at the Freeport terminal damaged part of the terminal. The reopening of the plant has been delayed several times. The company reported publicly on December 23 that the reconstruction work necessary to start initial operations was “substantially complete,” and that it was “submitting responses to the last remaining questions included in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s December 12 data request.” And it said it delayed plans to restart the facility until the second half of January.Given the renewed delay – the info must have gotten out days earlier – the price of natural gas in the US plunged from $6.60 per million Btu on December 15, to $4.98 on December 23, the day of the public announcement.The price then continued to plunge. Today, NG futures plunged another 11%, to $3.98 per million Btu at the moment, on weather forecasts over the weekend, which predicted a milder first half in January for the US. This brings the plunge since December 15 ($6.60) to 40%! Praying for Freeport to re-start exports asap? LNG exports provided a new market for the surging production of natural gas in the US, driven by fracking, which had collapsed the price of natural gas starting in 2009, as you can see in the above chart. For about the next 12 years, NG traded in the $2 to $4 range per million Btu, pushing many frackers into bankruptcy – including the big natural gas producer and pioneer fracker, Chesapeake in June 2020. With surging LNG exports, natural gas prices broke out of the $2 to $4 range in 2021, and then spiked to nearly $10 with the surge in prices in Europe, demand for US LNG, now that LNG exports connected the price in the US to global prices. But the explosion at the Freeport plant, which reduced exports, and removed some demand from the US market, brought those prices back down. And then, over the near term, there’s always the weather. In Europe, natural gas prices have unwound entirely the crazy spike in 2022 and have plunged back to October 2021 levels, amid record supply of LNG from the US and from other countries, record supply of piped natural gas from Norway, combined with a mild winter, and a reduction in consumption.

Commentary: The Left Sacrifices Natural Gas at the Altar of Climate Nirvana Leaving Good Americans Freeze to Death - The just-departed polar vortex confirmed that when Mother Nature is enraged, it’s wise to have options. Maddeningly, today’s “pro-choice” Democrats want Americans to have one energy choice. Neo-totalitarian, Left-wing eco-extremists are banning new natural-gas access in scores of locales. If not reversed, this cruel, stupid, needless policy will kill Americans. The Christmastime deep freeze that transformed much of the U.S. into the North Pole illustrates the deadly folly of forcing citizens to rely solely on an increasingly fragile electric grid (Plan A) while blocking natural gas as a secondary energy source (Plan B).  “The root cause of our grid’s reliability problems is simple,” explains Fossil Future author Alex Epstein. “America is shutting down too many reliable power plants” and replacing them with inconsistent solar and wind facilities.Naturally, enviro-know-it-alls hate natural gas, a fossil fuel. To them, gas is like cyanide. So, they have cancelled pipelines into New England and scotched new residential and commercial hookups and gas appliances in Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco and at least 74 other cities. “America is shutting down too many reliable power plants” and replacing them with inconsistent solar and wind facilities. Naturally, enviro-know-it-alls hate natural gas, a fossil fuel. To them, gas is like cyanide. So, they have cancelled pipelines into New England and scotched new residential and commercial hookups and gas appliances in Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco and at least 74 other cities. Those with electricity and natural gas enjoy two kinds of energy — for heating, cooling, charging, etc. If the gasophobes prevail, millions more Americans will have electricity but no natural gas. That’s cute — until an electrical outage occurs. And then … welcome to the 19th Century. The Yuletide polar vortex saw temperatures plunge below zero from the Rockies to the Great Lakes. Coupled with power failure, this became a death sentence for Americans who froze in their unheated residences. At least nine New Yorkers in Erie County (Buffalo) suffered this miserable demise. Up to 146 Texans similarly perished in February 2021’s frigid, epic e-snafu. Those cursed with Plan A similarly would be condemned by the Left to freeze and starve. Those with both choices could ignore their non-functioning electric appliances and either activate gas heaters to stay warm — and alive — or at least use their gas stoves to cook meals and boil pots of water to steam the chill away. Gas pipelines also let those with Generac and similar generators enjoy heat, food, lights, laptops, stereos and HDTVs. The moment a disaster-driven or rolling shortage occurs, these gas-fueled generators kick in automatically. Blackout? What blackout? Gasophobia prevents Americans from capitalizing on this life-saving technology.

Colonial Pipeline Shuts Critical Conduit Supplying Fuel To Northeast After Spill – A critical conduit supplying fuel to the US Northeast was halted on Wednesday, when the Colonial Pipeline temporarily shut operations after a spill, the latest disruption to energy flows following an outage to the Keystone oil pipeline last month. As Bloomberg first reported, some product was released at Colonial’s Witt delivery station near Danville, Virginia, prompting the shutdown of its Line 3, spokeswoman Meredith Stone said in an email. The company is planning a restart at around 12 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday, according to a notice shared with users of the pipeline. Colonial’s Line 3 transports refined products such as distillates and gasoline to the New York Harbor market from Greensboro, North Carolina, and is part of a broader system that supplies fuels to the eastern US. The system’s key gasoline conduit was shut for nearly a week in 2021 after a cyberattack. Colonial's vast product system which includes Lines 1, 2, 3 and 4 are a vital source of fuels for the eastern US. Lines 1 and 2 extend from the Houston area and meet in Charlotte, North Carolina, to form Line 3 into New York Harbor. The incident follows the outage to TC Energy Corp’s Keystone pipeline after the biggest onshore oil spill since 2010. The conduit, which can deliver as much as 600,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude into the US Midwest, only fully returned to service last week. Colonial didn’t provide the cause of the leak or the volume that was discharged from Line 3, although it did say the impact had been contained within its property

Nation's largest fuel pipeline shut down after fuel leak -— A diesel fuel leak in Virginia shut down part of the Colonial Pipeline, the nation’s largest fuel pipeline, which supplies roughly half the fuel consumed on the East Coast, but it is expected to restart Saturday, the company said. The spill was discovered Tuesday. And while this particular line is shut down, the rest of the system is operating normally, spokesperson David Conti said in an email. The incident shouldn’t have much impact on gas prices, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy. “The key being shouldn’t,” he said. “Obviously the Colonial is a key artery supplying refined products up the East Coast … It could be nothing. And it could turn into something” if regular operations fail to resume quickly. One bright spot is that fuel demand has dipped following the holidays, while a fair amount of people are still working from home, De Haan said. Gasoline demand is about 10% less than what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Crews are fixing equipment that failed at the Witt booster station near Danville, Colonial said in a statement. The failure caused a spill that was detected during a routine station check and appears to be contained to the property, the Alpharetta, Georgia-based company said. The company didn’t say what caused the leak or how much had spilled. Aaron Proctor, a spokesman for the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, wrote in an email that approximately 2,500 gallons (9,464 liters) of diesel fuel spilled. All of it was contained on site between soil and an adjacent storm water retention pond, Proctor wrote. There’s been no sign of impacts to state waters or wildlife beyond fish and animals living in the retention pond. Colonial transports gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and home heating oil from refineries located on the Gulf Coast through pipelines running from Texas to New Jersey. Its pipeline system spans more than 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometers), transporting more than 100 million gallons (378 million liters) a day. The impacted line carries about 885,000 barrels of product a day from Greensboro, North Carolina, to Linden, New Jersey, the Danville Register & Bee reported. In May 2021, the company temporarily shut down its operations after a ransomware attack. The halt to fuel supplies for nearly a week led to panic-buying and shortages at gas stations from Washington, D.C., to Florida. The company disclosed that it paid a ransom of $4.4 million to retrieve access to its data and the Justice Department later announced that a ransomware task force recovered most of the ransom.

U.S. pipeline regulator probing 60-barrel leak on Colonial's Line 3 -source (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) is monitoring an estimated 60-barrel leak on Colonial Pipeline's Line 3 in Virginia, a source told Reuters on Thursday. Top U.S. pipeline operator Colonial on Wednesday shut its Line 3 for unscheduled maintenance in response to a "product release" at its Witt delivery station near Danville, Virginia. The company expects repairs will occur by Friday, the source said, adding that the PHMSA's interstate agent, the VA Corporation Commission, was investigating the leak. The outage has affected the Line 3 schedule, including downstream, and the line is expected to restart on Jan. 7, Colonial had said, noting that impacts appeared to be contained to its property and normal operations continued on the rest of the system. Line 3, with a capacity of 885,000 barrels per day (bpd), runs from Greensboro, North Carolina, to Colonial's hub in Linden, New Jersey, carrying gasoline and distillates. Last month, Canada's TC Energy Corp faced a 21-day outage on its 622,000-bpd Keystone pipeline after it spilled 14,000 barrels of oil in rural Kansas, the biggest U.S. spill in nine years, reducing flows of Canadian crude to Gulf refineries.

Cleanup Efforts Continue for Oil Spill in Corpus Christi Bay – Flint Hills Resources (FHR) continues responding to the release of approximately 335 barrels (14,000 gallons) of light crude oil from a pipe failure at its Ingleside crude oil terminal on Saturday, December 24. The U.S. Coast Guard, the Texas General Land Office, and the Port of Corpus Christi Authority continue assisting with the ongoing cleanup efforts. Flint Hills Resources has provided more than 60,000 feet of boom and 3,000 absorbent pads since the cleanup efforts began. FHR continues monitoring and responding as oil product is spotted but reports they see less oil product each day. Currently, the active clean up and recovery operations are scaling down; however, crews continue to monitor and make assessments using foot patrols, boats, drones, airplanes and helicopters. Booms remain in the waters around Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays as a precaution until the entire clean up and recovery effort is complete. FHR reports minimal oil material on the shoreline or in Corpus Christi Bay. All observed material at North Beach has been cleaned up, with no additional material reported. North Beach remains open to the public. Crews remain poised to respond to any impacted area, including:

• Near Dock 5 at the Flint Hills Resources Ingleside Crude Oil Terminal
• The Ship Channel
• North Beach
• Indian Point
• Nueces Bay
• The Rookery Island
• Dredge Material Placement Area (DMPA10)

FHR will continue working with marine and wildlife experts as the number of deceased birds is at 13. One turtle was treated for potential exposure. Residents are encouraged to report any material or oil sheens they observe to the Flint Hills Resources Ingleside Response Center at 361-396-2831. The composition of the oil may resemble yellow “popcorn” or appear to be a small pebble of paraffin or wax. Additionally, a phone number has been set up for claim requests at 1-800-254-1122.

U.S. oil refiners restoring lost output, some outages to run into January -(Reuters) - U.S. oil refiners were working feverishly to resume operations at a dozen facilities knocked offline by a holiday deep freeze, a recovery that in some cases will stretch into January. An Arctic blast sent temperatures well below freezing and led to power, instrumentation and steam losses at facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The affected plants process about 3.58 million barrels of oil per day, delivering about 20% of U.S. motor fuels. Refiners had been running near full capacity with strong prices for diesel and other fuels. Retail gasoline prices ticked up along the Gulf Coast this week, but nationwide prices have not been affected by the temporary outages. Most of the affected plants suffered minor damage. Temperatures fell as low as 17 Fahrenheit (minus 8 Celsius) along the Gulf Coast - freezing some instruments and overwhelming steam and co-generation units at several facilities, according to people familiar with the matter. Two Houston-area plants - Motiva Enterprises' Port Arthur and Petroleos Mexicanos' Deer Park complexes - have restarts that will take them into the first or second week of January, according to notices filed with the state and people familiar with operations. Spokespeople did not reply to requests for comment. "We'll be up and running in about two weeks," barring any startup disruptions, according to one person involved in the restarts. "This freeze event was a lot lighter than the February (2021) freeze so I'd expect a quick recovery."

Marathon restarts Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas following shutdown -sources | Nasdaq(Reuters) - Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC.N restarted the 593,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas City, Texas, said people familiar with plant operations on Friday. Marathon spokesperson Jamal Kheiry declined to comment. Most units, including the 140,000 bpd gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracker (FCC), were in production by Thursday, the sources said. The refinery, which is the second largest in the United States shut down on Dec. 23 because of freezing weather from Winter Storm Elliott.

Fire breaks out at Lyondell Basell Houston refinery - A fire broke out at the Lyondell Basell Industries 264,000-bpd Houston refinery on Wednesday.

Gasoline Prices Spike On Refinery Shutdowns - U.S. gasoline prices rose on Tuesday as refineries across the country closed due to freezing temperatures. Gasoline prices have risen 12.4 cents from this time last week, according to the AAA data available on Tuesday. The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States is now $3.228, AAA shows—6 cents per gallon lower than this time last year. Gasoline prices began to rise during the cold snap that shut down refineries such as Suncor’s refinery in Colorado—that state’s only refinery. On Christmas Eve, Suncor said it was shutting the facility due to “extreme and record-setting weather.” The refinery also suffered a fire that caused damage to the facility. What’s more, the damage caused by the fire could see the refinery shut until sometime near the end of March. Suncor is responsible for supplying Colorado with more than a third of all gasoline and a third of all jet fuel for the Denver International Airport. Refinery shutdowns in the United States were widespread beginning on Christmas eve, with Rick Joswick, head of global oil analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights, estimating that 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity were affected. By December 28, many refineries had started the restart procedures, but the restart process can take weeks. The restarts for Pemex’s Deer Park refinery and Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery were said to possibly stretch into the first or second week in January. “For the first time in two months, the nation’s average price of gasoline rose sharply last week,” Gas Buddy’s Patrick De Haan said in a note on Tuesday. The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists on Tuesday stood at $2.99 per gallon, Gas Buddy said—unchanged from last week. Gas prices are rising despite a 13.7% drop in gas demand last week, Gas Buddy data showed.

Commodities 2023: 'Wiggle room' seen for US President Biden to limit oil, gas leasing activity - Oil and gas companies eager to score new acres of federal lands and waters for exploration and production may find their options limited or less attractive than they'd hoped in 2023, even as a new law will compel the Biden administration to proceed with oil and gas leasing activity. Industry observers flagged the US Interior Department's onshore and offshore leasing program as one area where President Joe Biden could continue to flex his climate change mitigation muscle with little to no impunity. Although the courts dashed Biden's effort to prohibit the issuance of new federal leases, and the Inflation Reduction Act tied oil and gas leasing to certain renewable energy development, Interior has retained a considerable amount of discretion to determine the amount and quality of acreage offered in lease sales. The administration already appears to be leaning in that direction as updated guidance from the Bureau of Land Management tightens terms for onshore leasing. In addition to new instructions for abiding by leasing provisions in the IRA, the guidance also sets out some seemingly discretionary new protocols governing how parcels for lease will be selected and the duration of approved applications for permits to drill. "There is nothing really to stop them from complying with the letter of the law by offering a modest amount of acreage in areas that they know no one really wants to buy," Glenn Schwartz, director of energy policy at Rapidan Energy, said in an interview. "That is fully within their discretion to do something like that, and there's not much industry can do to really override that in any way." Schwartz said the IRA's onshore leasing requirements set "a relatively low floor" that could easily be hit. And with companies since 2009 having annually only put in bids for an average of 1.7 million offshore acres, or about 2%-3% of the acreage offered for leasing, "it's not tough to offer 60 million acres without many concessions to the oil and gas sector," he said. Schwartz added that "Biden has a little bit more wiggle room to limit federal leasing" as action here does not have an immediate impact on oil supplies or prices at the pump. Most onshore plays require a year or two before their production volumes would make a dent in gasoline prices, and drilling offshore would take even longer.

U.S. Crude Production Climbs – but Petroleum Demand Drops 20% - Domestic oil production bounced back to near pandemic-era highs in the final week of 2022, while demand plummeted following a run-up to the Christmas holiday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Thursday output for the period ended Dec. 30 climbed 100,000 b/d week/week to 12.1 million b/d. That put production within 100,000 b/d of the 2022 peak that exploration and production (E&P) companies first reached last summer, data from EIA’s latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed. The latest reading also easily surpassed the year earlier level of 11.8 million b/d.Domestic production, while still well below the 13.1 million b/d record level reached in early 2020 prior to widespread coronavirus outbreaks, consistently held near or above 12.0 million b/d through the second half of 2022.American E&Ps are trying to strike the right balance at a time when demand is volatile. Americans’ spending had broadly recovered from pandemic lows, but many are growing more selective, including with travel, as the specter of a recession intensifies. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates multiple times through 2022 to counter 40-year-high inflation. Prices have eased some, but so too has economic activity. Aggressive central bank rate moves historically have pushed the U.S. economy into recession.The latest demand data reflects the growing uncertainty. Total petroleum product consumption for the Dec. 30 period dropped 20% week/week, led lower by an equally large plunge in demand for gasoline. Demand had climbed 9% in the week leading to Christmas, but it tapered quickly following holiday travel. Total petroleum products supplied in December averaged 20.5 million b/d, down 4% from the same period last year. Over the same stretch, motor gasoline demand averaged 8.5 million b/d, down 7%. Crude imports also were down last month. They averaged 5.7 million b/d last week, off by 540,000 b/d from the previous week. For all of December, imports averaged 6.2 million b/d, 3% less than a year earlier. Still, with production rising and demand easing, stockpiles increased last week. U.S. commercial crude inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose by 1.7 million bbl from the previous week. At 420.6 million bbl, however, inventories closed 2022 at 4% below the five-year average.

Pioneer Natural Resources lowers oil production forecast in Permian Basin by 1 million bpd by 2030 — Pioneer Natural Resources Co., one of the biggest oil producers in the Permian Basin, has lowered its long-term projection for output from the entire region. On Jan. 5., Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield said his company now sees Permian production of about 7 million bpd by 2030, down from a previous view of 8 million bbl. His comments come amid growing concern within the industry about the fading productivity of oil wells in the Permian and whether overall production could plateau. Pioneer, Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips will be the only companies producing more than 1 million bpd in the Permian after 2030, Sheffield said at the Goldman Sachs Global Energy and Clean Technology Conference in Miami. The Permian Basin, which straddles West Texas and New Mexico, is the largest U.S. oil patch and has been a source of massive output growth in recent years. The Permian has helped the U.S. become the world’s largest oil producer. The basin yielded 5.5 million barrels of crude a day on average last month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

U.S. shale workers’ pay growth slows as explorers reduce oilfield activity— Monthly wage growth in the U.S. shale patch slowed to less than 1% in November as explorers pulled back activity to manage record costs in the oilfield. U.S. shale drill on oilfield Average hourly earnings in oil and gas extraction for nonsupervisory workers were up 0.6% in November from the previous month to $42.19, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Jan 6. Compared with a year ago, the 13% growth matches last month’s annual change. Labor shortages in the oilfield have been one of the biggest hurdles holding back production growth. The overall number of workers employed in U.S. oil and gas jobs totaled 136,100 in December, down 3.1% from last year’s peak in July. Near the start of 2022, oil workers showed a willingness to leave the industry for higher pay elsewhere. But record profits throughout the year allowed oil companies to boost compensation in order to lure more workers back. The jobless rate in oil and natural gas fell to 1.9% in December from 3.1% in the prior month on an unadjusted basis, government figures show. That compares with an unemployment rate of 5.8% a year ago. The slowdown in oilfield earnings growth fits the overall trend seen across the U.S. economy last month, indicating a resilient labor market that may allow the Federal Reserve to further slow interest rate hikes. Shale drillers typically reduce drilling during the final weeks of the year as annual budget outlays are exhausted. Oilfield inflation was as much as 25% last year, according to estimates by JPMorgan Chase & Co., causing some explorers to slow activity as costs ate into budgets.

Appeals court: No common thread in fracking class action-- A group of plaintiffs injured by earthquakes caused by wastewater disposal injection in hydraulic fracturing operations in Oklahoma cannot form a class action to sue oil and gas companies for damages, the Oklahoma Court of Appeals has affirmed. The plaintiffs’ claims involve several different earthquakes that affected several counties, and their claims were too varied to form a class, the court ruled. Instead, the plaintiffs may be able to seek judgment against some of the largest oil and gas companies in Oklahoma on an individual basis. The plaintiffs, listed as “Lisa Griggs and April Marler, on behalf of themselves and other Oklahoma citizens similarly situated,” had attempted to form a class to sue New Dominion LLC, Kirkpatrick Oil Company Inc., Rainbo Service Co., D&B Operating LLC, Mid-Con Energy Operating LLC, Orca Operating Co. LLC, Territory Resources LLC, Devon Energy Production Company LP, TNT Operating Company Inc., White Operating Co., Dryes Corner LLC, White Star Petroleum LLC, Equal Energy US Inc., M M Energy Inc. and Wicklund Petroleum Corp. The class-action petition identified “nine groups of earthquakes clustered according to location which they allege were induced by wastewater disposal injection into Oklahoma’s Arbuckle formation and which have caused physical and emotional damage to the plaintiff class.” Properties in Logan, Payne, Lincoln, Creek, Oklahoma, Canadian, Kingfisher, Garfield and Noble counties were affected by the increased seismic activity attributed to wastewater injection in fracking operations. The petition sought damages for earthquakes that occurred between March 2014 and October 2017, when the petition was filed. The appeals court reaffirmed the decision of the District Court of Logan County, Oklahoma, which ruled that the plaintiffs’ claims could not be taken up collectively as a class. “We have 26 defendants in this matter with a whole bunch of different earthquakes and a whole bunch of different clusters,” reads the trail court record. “The Court believes, based upon the petition on its face, that there’s no way this Court believes that the plaintiffs can show commonality, as it relates to a class certification.” The plaintiffs had grouped earthquakes by magnitude for class certification purposes, asserting that earthquakes of 4.5 magnitude and above indicate “negligence, abnormally dangerous activity and trespass theories of liability,” while earthquakes of 3.0 magnitude constitute a “nuisance.” However, the plaintiffs’ complaint makes clear that not all of the earthquakes in question were primarily caused by all of the defendants. Most of the individual companies named in the lawsuit were found to be responsible for only one “earthquake swarm,” as the groups of earthquakes were termed.

TC Energy completes controlled restart of Keystone pipeline’s Cushing extension | Oil & Gas Journal -- TC Energy Corp. began a controlled restart of the Keystone pipeline Cushing extension, returning the pipeline to service Dec. 29, the company said in a release. The restart follows repairs, inspections, and testing following a 14,000-bbl crude oil spill from the Keystone pipeline in Washington County, Kan., in early December 2022 (OGJ Online, Dec. 8, 2022).The Cushing extension is operating under plans approved by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA).The Keystone Pipeline System is now operational to all delivery points, the company said, as the section that extends from Hardisty, Alta. to Wood River/Patoka, Ill. was restarted Dec. 14 (OGJ Online, Dec. 14, 2022). The company continues to monitor the system and said it will operate the pipeline with additional risk-mitigation measures, including reduced operating pressures. Cleanup and restoration of the incident site is ongoing. As of Dec. 30, the company has recovered an estimated 10,637 bbl of oil from the creek (17,738 bbl of oil and water).

TC Energy plans diversion around Keystone pipeline leak; critics seek more transparency | — TC Energy, operator of the Keystone pipeline, announced plans Tuesday to build a temporary bypass around a pipeline spill on a Kansas creek to aid in the cleanup and reclamation of Mill Creek. Meanwhile, two critics of the pipeline questioned why more details have not been provided about the total amount of the spill, the extent of the cleanup, and its cause.On Dec. 7, the 36-inch pipeline sprang a leak just east of Washington, Kansas, spilling an estimated 14,000 barrels (or 588,000 gallons) of crude oil near and into the creek. It was the largest leak to date on the 12-year-old crude oil pipeline, larger than five previous leaks combined, according to a recent report by the Government Accountability Office. The spill occurred as a diagnostic tool was being run through the pipe in that area.The Keystone pipeline system — a forerunner to the more controversial and now abandoned Keystone XL pipeline — carries crude oil processed from Canada’s tar sands region to refineries in southeast Illinois and the Texas Gulf Coast.Operations on the Keystone segment from Steele City, Nebraska, to Cushing, Oklahoma, were resumed last week under plans approved by the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), the company said.TC Energy, formerly TransCanada, said flows in Mill Creek will be diverted upstream of containment dams built to hold back crude oil. The water, pumped through an above-ground bypass, will then rejoin the creek below the dams.But both Jane Kleeb, founder of Bold Nebraska, and Zach Pistoria, a lobbyist for the Sierra Club of Kansas, said TC Energy hasn’t been completely transparent about several aspects of the repair and reclamation project.

Report: Cancellation of Keystone XL Pipeline resulted in thousands of construction jobs lost; billions in financial impact -The Department of Energy has released its report on the impact of cancelling the Keystone XL Pipeline.President Joe Biden cancelled construction of the pipeline the first day he took office. The report states that 16,000 to 59,000 construction jobs would have been created through the project, with an economic impact of more than $3.1 billion. Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) said the report highlights the damage to Montana’s working families.  “Killing the Keystone XL Pipeline cost good paying jobs, it hurt Montana’s economy and was the first step in the Biden Administration’s war on oil and gas production in the United States,” said Daines.  The report states that there would have been 50 permanent jobs available once the pipeline was completed.Senators Daines and Jim Risch (R-ID) introduced a bill that required a report on the number of Keystone XL jobs lost in 2021. The report was due on February 13, 2022.The Keystone XL Pipeline was expected to deliver crude oil from Canada through eastern Montana to Steele City, Nebraska. The existing Keystone line travels from Canada through eastern North Dakota to Steele City.

Group: Kansas Keystone Spill a Cautionary Tale for Michigan Pipeline - An environmental watchdog group said the recent Keystone Pipeline oil spill should serve as a warning to Michiganders if a proposed expansion of the Enbridge Line 5 project is approved. In early December, Keystone broke open and dumped 14,000 barrels of heavy tar-sands oil into a creek on the Kansas-Nebraska border, causing major environmental damage. Sean McBrearty, campaign coordinator for Oil and Water Don’t Mix, said a break in Line 5, which runs under the Mackinac Straits, could cause as much or more damage as the Keystone spill. “What the Keystone spill in Kansas goes to show is, even new pipelines spill,” McBrearty pointed out. “There’s no foolproof way to build these. There is no way to respond to a major oil spill effectively, especially in a place like the Straits of Mackinac.” Line 5 is a 30-inch-wide, 645-mile-long pipeline which carries crude oil products from central Ontario through Michigan. Enbridge wants to move the pipeline to a planned tunnel under Lakes Michigan and Huron. The company claims the project will protect the Straits from an oil spill and create jobs. McBrearty disagreed. He pointed out studies have shown the proposed project is extremely risky, and rerouting the pipeline has the potential to create an environmental disaster. “University of Michigan detailed the Straits of Mackinac is essentially the worst place in the Great Lakes for an oil spill,” McBrearty contended. “And yet, not only are we having this existing pipeline running through there, we’re talking about building another pipeline in a tunnel right underneath it.” Enbridge is awaiting an Environmental Impact Statement from the Army Corps of Engineers, and a decision from the Michigan Public Service Commission, which could take another two years. But McBrearty believes it is only a matter of time before Line 5 will fail.

Patterson-UTI Renews U.S. Drilling Contracts with 'More Favorable Pricing than Expected' -  Houston-based Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. expects to record net income of $100 million-plus for 4Q2022, a sharp turnaround from year-ago losses as Lower 48 drilling expands. The oilfield services company, which previewed earnings on Wednesday, had reported net losses for the fourth quarter of 2021.“In contract drilling, average rig revenue per day benefited primarily from contract renewals with more favorable pricing than expected,” CEO Andy Hendricks said. “Pressure pumping benefited from strong pricing and utilization, including downtime around the holidays that was less severe than we had forecasted, despite the inclement weather.”During the 2Q2022 conference call in July, Hendricks had said activity already was at pre-pandemic levels, with customers locking in prices.At the end of 2022, the company had 132 rigs running across the United States, with the majority in the Permian Basin (61), followed by the Appalachian Basin (22). That compares with the final three months of 2021, when the company was running on average 106 rigs.

Santa Barbara County is cleaning up an oil spill from a well built in 1882 - Santa Barbara County is cleaning up an oil spill from a well built more than a century ago. Fire personnel responded to a report of oil in the Toro Canyon Creek on the morning of January 1. The oil leaked from a seepage well built in 1882. Crews are using damning, absorbent pads and booms to clean it up. According to a Santa Barbara County press release, the cause of the spill, the amount of oil released and the environmental impacts are under investigation. “The discharge did happen after heavy rains on New Year's Eve,” SB County Public Information Officer Lael Wageneck said. “So what we're looking at is to see if that was potentially a cause of it.” UC Davis Veterinary School Oiled Wildlife Care Network members are on-site surveying the area for impacted wildlife. So far, there are no reports of oiled wildlife. California Dept of Fish and Wildlife Public Information Officer Steve Gonzalez said a quick response is important to minimize the devastating impacts oil spills can have on wildlife. “There's a lot of things that can happen when oil gets into the environment,” Gonzalez said. “That's why we have a unified command that comes together that cleans up these oil spills as quick as possible.” Gonzalez said professionals are prepared to rescue and rehabilitate any oiled wildlife. This isn’t the first time oil has spilled out of the same well. In August 2020, about 630 gallons of oil seeped into the Toro Canyon Creek. The county waited a year before initiating a cleanup.

Study: California oil and gas workers can easily switch industries -- As California transitions away from fossil fuels in the years ahead to pursue aggressive climate goals, an increasing number of oil and gas workers across the state will be forced to put their skills to use elsewhere. But just how many workers will be affected and how difficult will it be for them to acquire new jobs earning comparable salaries? A new analysis released Tuesday offers a rosier forecast than previous predictions.  The report, produced by the nonpartisan think tank Gender Equity Policy Institute, counted about 59,200 workers directly employed by the oil and gas industries in California. And of those workers, the analysis found that two out of three will likely be able to move into new jobs in other industries without any retraining. For workers at serious risk of displacement and whose skills are not as easily transferable, the report estimates that the projected cost assumed by the state of California to support them with income subsidies and relocation assistance may also be far lower than prior projections.   “Our data absolutely shows that there are people who work in the oil and gas industry who will be negatively impacted by the transition to clean energy, but the big takeaway from our study is that an equitable transition is both affordable and achievable,” said Nancy Cohen, president of the Gender Equity Policy Institute. Previous studies, including one commissioned by the Western States Petroleum Association, have incorporated a wider array of occupations in the oil and gas workforce, which led to a higher number of people considered at risk of displacement and inflated the cost of potential transition programs for fossil fuel employees.. The Western States Petroleum Association, a trade group that represents oil operations in California, staunchly rebuked the latest findings. “Studies like this and the political rhetoric they fuel make it difficult to have the real discussions we need to have about energy policy,” Kevin Slagle, a spokesperson for the Association, wrote in an email. “Californians are much smarter than these groups and some of our elected leaders give them credit for — they won’t buy into simplified and ridiculous claims that don’t match what they see in the real world.”

Lower 48 Producing More Oil, Natural Gas from Fewer Wells, Report Shows -   In An increasingly small percentage of oil and natural gas wells is supplying the majority of U.S. production, according to a new report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) based on Enverus data. U.S. Production The trend is because of the proliferation of horizontal wells combined with hydraulic fracturing in the Lower 48, researchers said. “Oil and natural gas wells drilled horizontally through hydrocarbon-bearing formations are among the most productive wells in the United States,” researchers said. They added, “Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have greatly increased both oil and natural gas production rates of onshore wells in the United States.” The total number of producing wells in the United States declined by about 11.1% from a peak of more than 1,031,183 wells in 2014 to about 916,934 wells in 2021, EIA researchers said. U.S. oil production rose by 28% over the same span to average 11.25 million b/d in 2021, versus 8.79 million b/d in 2014. The total number of horizontally drilled wells grew by 67.9%, from just under 99,000 wells in 2014 to about 166,160 wells in 2021, the EIA team added. Horizontal wells’ share of the overall well count stood at 18.1% as of 2021, up from 5.4% in 2011. According to EIA, 77.9% of U.S. wells produced less than 15 boe/d in 2021, while only 6.4% of wells produced more than 100 boe/d. However, wells producing 100 boe/d or more supplied 75% of oil production and 74% of natural gas production in 2021. By comparison, in 2011, the 100 boe/d or more well category supplied 57% and 55% of oil and natural gas production, respectively. Horizontal wells accounted for 89.5% of the wells that produced 100 boe/d or more in 2021, up from 52.7% in 2011. The EIA team noted that marginal wells nearing the end of their economically useful lives, aka stripper wells, produced about 7% of total U.S. oil and natural gas in 2021. The Internal Revenue Service defines a stripper well as one that produces 15 b/d or less of oil, or 90,000 cubic feet/d or less of natural gas, over a calendar year. Stripper wells supplied 16% of oil and 14% of natural gas output in 2011. Horizontal wells are not without their challenges, however. “The decline rates of hydraulically fractured horizontal wells within shale or tight formations are typically greater than for wells drilled vertically into conventional reservoirs,” the EIA team said. In addition, the depletion of top-tier inventory is likely to make it harder for operators to improve well productivity, according to Enverus vice president Steve Diederichs. “We don’t expect per-foot recoveries to improve as inventory in the best rock quality of most plays is beginning to deplete, and more and more activity pivots to secondary parts of plays both from a geographic view and stratigraphic view,” Diederichs told NGI. “Said another way, operators are drilling primary intervals in lower quality regions” and increasing the rate at which secondary intervals are drilled on a percentage basis.

Are Higher Canada AECO Natural Gas Prices a Pipe Dream? -Discounted pricing at the NOVA/AECO C natural gas hub in Southern Alberta is likely to remain a fact of life over the near term, even if pipeline expansions and LNG exports in Western Canada come online as scheduled, according to experts. Abundant gas supply from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and limited egress capacity out of the region have historically kept downward pressure on the price of gas delivered to AECO, the hub that is synonymous with TC Energy Corp.’s Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL) pipeline system. Pipeline maintenance on NGTL can also cause AECO prices to collapse as molecules have nowhere to go. As a result, producers and marketers of Western Canadian gas have sought to maximize their exposure to higher prices in the United States and/or Eastern Canada. The challenge, however, is a lack of available firm transport capacity out of the AECO region and into these more lucrative markets. There simply is “no more pipe out of the basin,” a Calgary-based natural gas trader who did not want to be named told NGI. “It’s all contracted…so there’s not a lot of egress for the next little while.” Additionally, associated gas from the Bakken Shale of North Dakota has been displacing Canadian volumes on TC’s Northern Border pipeline system, which connects WCSB supply with demand in the U.S. Midwest, according to FactSet Research Systems Inc’s Connor McLean, senior energy analyst. With pipeline space already limited, “any of that capacity that gets displaced really just backs up into the AECO market,” McLean told NGI. Limited capacity beyond Alberta’s borders also can hinder the ability of Canadian gas to respond to price signals in the Western United States, he said. “The marginal molecule for the western U.S. is not Canada,” McLean said, but rather the Opal Hub in southwestern Wyoming. He explained that “Canadian gas is flowing as much as it can across the border, and every incremental molecule that California or Nevada or Utah needs, has to come from the Western Rockies.”

Peru hits Spanish energy giant Repsol with new oil spill fines   -- Peru's environment authorities on Wednesday announced fines worth close to $6 million against Spanish energy giant Repsol  over an oil spill that polluted beaches and cost thousands their livelihoods. Almost 12,000 barrels of crude spilled into the sea off Peru in January 2022 as a tanker unloaded oil at a Repsol-owned refinery.Peru said more than 700,000 people were affected by the spill which forced the closure of 20 beaches and dozens of tourism businesses.

Ecuador takes over two Amazon oil blocks - Ecuador has taken over operation of two oil blocks in the Amazon rainforest that since 1999 had been operated by Spain’s Repsol under a contract now expired, state company Petroecuador said Sunday. Petroecuador said in a statement it “assumes operation” of blocks 16 and 67 after Repsol’s contracts for exploration and exploitation ended on December 31. The blocks are in the Amazonian province of Orellana in Ecuador’s east and produce 13,533 barrels of oil per day. They are located in the Yasuni National Park, home to a nature reserve and Indigenous communities. Crude oil is a major revenue source in Ecuador, whose total production was 479,000 barrels per day from January to November 2022, 78 percent of it by Petroecuador. The country exported 312,400 barrels per day during that period, generating nearly $8.4 billion, according to the Central Bank. In 2020 the Ecuadoran government thwarted a deal for Repsol to sell its rights to the two blocks to the Canadian firm New Stratus Energy, meaning the blocks would revert to the state once the contracts ended. An oil spill in eastern Ecuador in February last year, had reached a nature reserve and polluted a river that supplies water to indigenous communities. Nearly two hectares (five acres) of a protected area of the Cayambe-Coca national park had been contaminated, as well as the Coca River — one of the biggest in the Ecuadoran Amazon. In May 2020 in the same area, a mudslide damaged pipelines, resulting in 15,000 barrels of oil polluting three Amazon basin rivers, affecting several riverside communities.

Shell Signals ‘Significantly Higher’ Natural Gas Profits for 4Q - Shell plc will pay around $2 billion in additional UK taxes for the final period of 2022, but the cut to revenue won’t overcome strong profits from natural gas trading, the London-based major said Friday. In fact, Shell said in a trading update that it should record “significantly higher” earnings for 4Q2022 even with a higher tax load. In the Integrated Gas unit, which includes LNG and gas-to-liquids businesses, production for 4Q2022 was estimated at 900,000-940,000 boe/d. The reduced output was pinned on a “longer than expected outage” at the Prelude floating liquefied natural gas project in Australia following a union strike. LNG liquefaction volumes in the final three months of 2022 were estimated at 6.6-7.0 million metric tons (mmt). The reduction in volumes, said Shell, mostly reflected the “longer than expected plant outage at Prelude and operational issues” at the Queensland Curtis LNG terminal, also in Australia. Upstream production in the fourth quarter was estimated at 1.83-1.93 million boe/d. For comparison, Integrated Gas production in 3Q2022 was forecast at 890,000-940,000 boe/d. Liquefaction volumes were around 6.9-7.5 mmt. Upstream output averaged 1.75-1.85 million boe/d in 3Q2022. For the final period of 2022, trading and optimization results are “expected to be significantly higher compared to 3Q2022,” Shell stated. Europe’s largest natural gas and oil company said the impact of the UK’s Energy Profits Levy, which climbed 10% to 35% beginning Jan. 1, would have limited impacts because of the timing of the payments. The higher levy was imposed by the UK until the end of March 2028. Other governments also have imposed windfall taxes on producers to reduce consumer costs. Russia cut its natural gas pipeline exports to Europe last year in the wake of sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. Many countries in Europe and beyond, including Australia, have looked to impose additional taxes on gas and oil producers, which raked in record profits last year, to cushion consumer costs. The estimated $2 billion in levies imposed on Shell for 4Q2022 would be in addition to $360 million in windfall taxes that Shell disclosed late last year.

Wave of Long-Term European LNG Contracts Seen Likely This Year - European LNG offtakers in 2023 are expected to continue the flurry of contracting activity that closed out 2022, as more import infrastructure comes online, larger buyers recapitalize and policies become clearer. Europe LNG Capacity Since November, European buyers including Engie SA, Galp Energia SGPS SA, Ineos Group Ltd. and RWE AG have signed deals to buy U.S. liquefied natural gas for 15 years-plus. During the same time, Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd secured a $3 billion loan backed by the German government to buy more gas for the country. ConocoPhillips also signed contracts with QatarEnergy to move more of the super-chilled fuel to Germany. U.S. LNG projects are poised to benefit most from the contracting rush. Sponsors signed long-term agreements in 2022 to supply nearly 50 million metric tons/year (mmty) of LNG, mainly to Asian buyers and portfolio players. European offtakers accounted for only 11.4 mmty of the total. It is estimated that Europe needs anywhere from 50-75 mmty of long-term LNG supplies from the United States alone to help replace the decline in Russian imports. Many countries across Europe have been working to build more LNG import capacity. It was a necessary step before buyers could “really settle into working on some long-term deals,” said LNG Allies CEO Fred Hutchison. Nowhere is that more evident than in Germany, Europe’s largest gas consumer and once the most dependent on Russian imports. The country has chartered six floating storage and regasification units and is working to support construction of its first onshore import terminals at breakneck speed. “I think things are about as far advanced as they can be in Germany given when this crisis began” in February 2022, Hutchison told NGI. “My view is that there has been a lot going on behind the scenes, and we’ll start to see more specific announcements early in 2023.” Some of Europe’s larger gas buyers, including France’s Électricité de France SA, Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (Sefe) and Germany’s Uniper SE have been nationalized and recapitalized. Others have been quasi-nationalized after a stretch of record high commodity prices last year weighed on balance sheets. That has also slowed contract negotiations. “It’s taking politicians time to recognize the severity of the problem, and they’re therefore missing out,” said a U.S. LNG executive who did not want to be named discussing ongoing contract negotiations. “That has started to break down a bit, evidenced by the Engie deal, by the Galp deal and others. “The interest from Europe is definitely there…I would anticipate around the middle of 2023, the end of 2023 and into 2024, you’re going to see a lot more Europeans come to the market,” the executive added. “The volumes we’re hearing about are in the tens of millions of tons.” Uniper and Sefe in particular are expected to join other German buyers in clinching more long-term supply deals. German utilities EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG and RWE signed deals last year.

Norway Gas Exports to Stay at Record Levels for 4-5 Years - Norway plans to export around 122 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2023, in line with last year’s level, and to maintain this volume for the next four or five years, Minister of Petroleum and Energy Terje Aasland said on Thursday. The output for 2022, which had not previously been released, was up 8% from 2021, in line with a previous government forecast, and similar to the all-time high of 122.37 bcm set in 2017. “Norwegian authorities have updated the estimate for the sales from gas from the Norwegian continental shelf in 2023. The estimate is 122 bcm, the same level as for 2022,” Aasland said. “The expectation is that today’s high level can be maintained for the next four to five years.” Norway, Europe’s top supplier, primarily pipes its gas to receiving terminals in Britain, Germany, France and Belgium and late in 2022 also opened a new pipeline to Poland via Denmark. The Nordic country also shipped more liquefied natural gas by tanker from its Arctic Hammerfest plant, which restarted operations in May after having been offline since a fire in 2020.

Worst of Europe’s Energy Crisis May Be Yet To Come - In December, the International Energy Agency warned that Europe could face a gas shortage this year despite its successful efforts to fill up storage for winter 2022-23. Now, more voices are joining the warnings as reality sets in, and it is not a reality that one can easily brush aside. For starters, much of Europe’s success in keeping the lights on so far this winter has been the result of milder-than-usual weather. October and half of November were particularly warm, which made reducing gas consumption across the European Union—a mandatory directive—much easier than it would have been otherwise.Yet the moment the weather got colder in late November, consumption jumped, so in early December, Germany’s head of energy market regulations had to warn Germans to take it easy on the heating as they were not hitting the country’s gas savings target of 20 percent of total consumption. That warning gave everyone a taste of just how precarious the situation is. Storage units are full, and there’s more LNG coming into European terminals all the time, thanks to the weather.Reuters’ John Kemp reported that the level of gas in storage in Europe at the end of December 2022 was at the second highest for that time of year for the past ten years and set to remain comfortable until the end of the heating season, according to traders.Many were quick to celebrate the end of the crisis, but those celebrations may have been premature. To begin with, winter is far from over, and there is still a considerable likelihood of much colder weather in January and February. Besides, the end of winter does not automatically mean an abundance of natural gas.Last year, European countries managed to stock up on gas in time and in abundance, in no small part thanks to the fact that Russia sent most of its regular volumes of gas during the first half of the year. Except for the cutoff of Bulgaria and Poland for their refusal to pay in rubles, gas supply from Europe’s then-largest supplier remained largely steady.This helped a lot along with the record intake of U.S. liquefied natural gas. This year, however, there will be no regular Russian gas volumes. Indeed, Moscow, in the face of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, said it is ready to resume flows along the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which, he said, remains closed for political Yet the European Union has repeatedly stated it does not want to increase its imports of Russian gas. Instead, it wants to cut them to zero eventually. And this means it will need to seriously increase its imports of LNG from not only the United States but all other suppliers with uncontracted volumes. And because these still-available volumes are not exactly unlimited, experts are beginning to warm their audience up for another difficult year.The availability of gas would be the biggest reason why the year would likely be difficult for Europe. But even if winter continues to be mild and ends mild, the gas crisis will not be over. Because LNG is more expensive than pipeline gas, and this is a fact that does not stand to change. And this fact means that even if there is enough LNG to refill Europe’s storage—which is questionable, as the IEA warned—the bill will be huge for a second year in a row.

German lawmakers criticize gov't silence on Nord Stream blasts - The German government is taking flak from legislators for its silence on undersea explosions last year that knocked out the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, along with the Russian natural gas they carried. "I understand, especially in times of war, that these delicate investigations may also require secrecy," Konstantin von Notz, chairman of the parliamentary intelligence monitoring body, told the daily Tagesspiegel on Tuesday. But, the politician from the Green Party continued: "In a constitutional state, the public has a right to know what really happened." The blasts took place on Sept. 26, causing major ruptures and gas leaks from the two pipelines that run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Officials from countries in the region have said sabotage was a likely cause of the incident. Von Notz called for more openness in light of the "significance of this unprecedented terrorist attack" on the country's supply infrastructure. "The federal government (Germany) must break its silence very soon, create transparency, or at least present a plausible narrative of the events of Sept. 26." The deputy chairman of the parliamentary intelligence control committee, Roderich Kiesewetter of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), told Tagesspiegel that lawmakers wanted to continue pressuring the government "because the wild speculations in this unclear situation are not harmless." Kiesewetter also claimed to have gained the impression that "investigative authorities, and thus also the German government, are indeed still in the dark."

Kiel Canal Reopens After Oil Spill -- On Tuesday, Germany's strategic Kiel Canal reopened after a weekslong closure caused by an oil spill. On December 21, a pipeline released an estimated 3,200 gallons of oil into the inner harbor at the port of Brunsbuttel, the North Sea/Elbe entrance to the canal. According to Tobias Goldschmidt, the state's environment minister, the oil slick spread over a stretch of water four miles in length. About 150 volunteers and workers and three spill-response vessels joined the effort to mitigate the spill, and the canal locks were temporarily closed to prevent the spread of pollution. A thick layer of oil floating on the water had to be removed with sorbent before traffic could resume, the incident command told DPA. At one point, at least 30 ships were queued up and waiting for the waterway to reopen, and some opted to change course and navigate around Denmark through the Kattegat instead. The closure cost German shipping more than $1.5 million per day, according to German public radio network NDR. Final cleanup will take more time, but the overwhelming majority of the spill has been removed, authorities told NDR. The work has reached a point where shipping can safely resume. The Kiel Canal is a 60-mile artificial waterway connecting the North Sea with the Baltic, allowing small vessels to shorten their voyage between the two regions. It dates to the 19th century, but in the years leading up to the First World War, it was enlarged to fit the dimensions of the largest German warships of the era. Today it can accept ships with a length up to 770 feet, a beam of up to 106 feet, air draft of 130 feet and a draft of about 23 feet. Like the Bosporus, the Kiel Canal is open to international navigation by treaty, though locally maintained and controlled.

Gazprom’s gas production falls by 20% in 2022, CEO says - Russia’s Gazprom gas giant produced 412.6 bln cubic meters of gas in 2022, the company’s CEO Alexey Miller said, Trend reports citing TASS. "As for gas output, it stood at 412.6 bln cubic meters in 2022. Gazprom exported 100.9 bln cubic meters of gas to countries outside the former Soviet Union," the company’s statement quoted Miller as saying. Gas production fell by about 20% compared to 2021 and exports dropped by 45.5%. According to the latest data, 243 bln cubic meters of gas were supplied to domestic consumers. "Our priority goal is to ensure gas supplies to Russian customers. We confidently achieved it, as always," Miller emphasized.

Russian gas exports outside ex-Soviet states fell 45.5 per cent in 2022 -- Russian gas exports to countries outside a group of former Soviet republics plunged by 45.5 percent in 2022, figures from gas giant Gazprom showed on Monday ..Gazprom said in a statement that exports outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) totalled 100.9 billion cubic metres compared to 185.1 billion in 2021. ..Europe was previously Gazprom's main export market but supplies have been drastically reduced because of sanctions following Russia's offensive in Ukraine in 2022..

China Continuing to Boost Domestic Natural Gas Production From Top Fields -Oil and natural gas output from two of China’s leading fields again crept upward last year, according to reports that cited data from China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) and China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. (Sinopec). Oil and gas production in the Tarim Oilfield, China’s largest ultra-deep onshore play, hit a record 33.1 million tons (Mt) in 2022, according to CNPC data. That’s up by 1.28 Mt from 2021. Natural gas output from the field hit 32.3 billion cubic meters (Bcm), or about 1.1 Tcf last year. The Tarim Basin in northwest China’s crude and gas reserves accounted for 60% of the country’s onshore ultra-deep assets and 19% of the global total, CNPC said. In southwest China, Sinopec said production from the country’s largest shale gas field also hit a record. The Fuling field produced 7.2 Bcm last year, or 254 Bcf. That’s up by roughly 1 Bcf from the previous year. Fuling accounts for about 34% of China’s shale gas reserves, according to Sinopec. The Chinese government has called on its national oil companies to boost domestic output in recent years. It also opened the country to foreign companies to develop natural gas to increase domestic supplies. China, the world’s largest energy consumer, also has invested in technically challenging hydrocarbon areas such as shale and tight gas. While natural gas demand was limited last year by Covid-19 outbreaks, the country was able to lean more heavily on domestic gas production, pipeline gas imports from Russia and other fuels like domestic coal. The strategy helped gas buyers in the country avoid costly purchases on the LNG spot market, which are expected to remain limited this year. Overall, China’s natural gas production has increased from 174 Bcm (6.1 Tcf) in 2019 to about 220 Bcm (7.8 Tcf) last year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA projects China’s domestic gas production to reach 230 Bcm (8.1 Tcf) this year.

Nigeria's Oil Production Rebounds By 120,000bpd In December 2022 - Nigeria’s oil production rebounded by 120,000 barrels per day in December 2022 compared to November, according to a monthly Reuters survey published on Wednesday. The rebound raised the oil output of the broader Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last month, though the oil cartel still pumped well below the collective target of the 10-member group bound by the OPEC+ pact. The larger OPEC+ group moved to cut its collective production target by 2 million barrels per day in November—about 1.27 million barrels per day set to come from OPEC members. The member states of OPEC, with production quotas, saw their combined oil output at 780,000 barrels per day below the target for December. The shortfall slightly decreased from 800,000 barrels per day below the OPEC quota for November. In December, OPEC pumped 29 million barrels per day, up by 120,000 barrels per day month on month. Nevertheless, Nigeria remains the biggest laggard in the OPEC+ production quota, alongside other African OPEC members such as Angola. Earlier this week, a Bloomberg survey of OPEC production also showed a rise in output for December, by 150,000 barrels per day over November, thanks to the rebound in Nigerian oil production. This shows a positive development for former Africa’s largest crude producer, which has faced unprecedented oil theft. In October, Nigerian authorities discovered an illegal underwater 2.5-mile connection from the Forcados export terminal. It had been operating undetected for around nine years, according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Exporting (NNPC) Company. Analysts noted that while Nigeria has known of the land-based pipeline taps for decades, an underwater one was the first of its kind.

EPA probes diesel spill in Malé jetty area - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has stated that it is investigating the incident where a large quantity of diesel spilled into Malé City’s primary jetty area. Meanwhile, the Maldives Coastguard has been working on clearing up the area and filtering out the oil. Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) estimated that nearly 1,000 litres of diesel may have been spilled in the area. Authorities have filtered approximately 400 litres of oil from the jetty area so far. EPA Director General Ibrahim Naeem confirmed that the authority is looking into what caused the spill and attempting to identify the responsible party. “We have cause to believe the spill might have originated from a vessel that was traveling near Malé City, and the oil had traveled with the current,” Naeem said.

Gas supply to Turkey from Iran pipeline down 70 pct due to fault: BOTAS | Al Arabiya -The supply of natural gas to Turkey from an Iranian pipeline is down 70 percent from the start of 2023 due to a fault in the Iranian network, Turkish state energy company BOTAS said on Saturday. BOTAS said in a statement it was monitoring the issue and all necessary measures were being taken so that natural gas usage would not be negatively affected, with additional demand met by gas storage facilities in Turkey.

Iran to launch $8b oil projects by March 2023 - Mehr News Agency - – Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji said a number of unfinished petroleum projects worth $8 billion in total are scheduled to come on stream by the end of the current Iranian calendar year to March 23, 2023. Javad Owji told a live televised interview on Friday that 8 billion dollars of half-finished projects will be completed in the current calendar year, adding the projects are aimed at addressing such priorities as enhancing oil and gas production, boosting gas refining capacity, gas transmission pipelines, petrochemical compounds and gathering associated petroleum gases. Referring to the president's emphasis on the implementation of half-finished projects and the need to determine their fate as soon as possible, he clarified, “Since the beginning of the work of the government, with a jihadist action, the Ministry of Petroleum has carried out basic and infrastructure works to complete the half-finished projects, and priority projects have been identified.” One of the projects is Phase-11 of the massive South Pars gas field development. Once operational, the project will add 14 million cubic meters of gas to the country’s natural gas production capacity. Owji also announced the completion of the third sweetening train of the South Pars Phase-14 Refinery, and said, "The most important of all projects was the South Pars Phase-14 Refinery, which will become fully operational by the calendar yearend to March 2023." “Good projects and plans for increasing oil and gas production, increasing refining capacity, including petrol production, gas oil, gas transmission lines and collecting flare gases, as well as petrochemical complexes and complementary chain industries, and most importantly consumption optimization projects for which we have signed $110 billion of memorandums and contracts.” The minister added that for these plans, the capacity of investment participation of domestic and foreign sectors has been tapped, SHANA reported.

Iraq exports over 100 mln barrels of crude oil in Dec.-(Xinhua) -- Iraq exported about 103 million barrels of crude oil in December, generating 7.6 billion U.S. dollars in revenue, the country's oil ministry announced Monday. The average price for Iraqi crude oil in December was 73.64 dollars per barrel, the ministry said in a statement, citing statistics from the State Organization for Marketing of Oil. A total of 100.7 million barrels were exported from oil fields in central and southern Iraq via the port of Basra, while more than 2 million barrels from the northern province of Kirkuk via the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean, the statement said. Oil prices have risen in global markets since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in February last year, benefiting Iraq and other oil exporting countries. However, oil prices witnessed a decline in the past few months because of fears of lower demand for oil in global markets. Iraq's economy heavily relies on crude oil exports, which account for more than 90 percent of the country's revenues.

Iraq oil revenue tops $115 bn in 2022 - Iraq collected over 115 billion dollars from oil sales in 2022, setting an all-time record in the month of June, and earning approximately 40 billion dollars more than the previous year. Iraq exported over 103 million barrels of crude oil during December, at an average rate of 3.3 million barrels per day and an average price of $73.6 per barrel, according to the monthly report from the Iraqi oil ministry on Monday. December marks Iraq’s lowest monthly revenue generated from oil sales throughout 2022, collecting 7.6 billion dollars. Last month’s earnings bring the country’s total yearly revenue to 115.5 billion dollars - a significant increase from 2021’s 75.6 billion dollars. June is considered Iraq’s highest ever recorded gross amount from oil sales, earning over 11.5 billion dollars during that month, besting May’s 11.436 billion and March’s 11.07 billion - both deemed the country’s highest financial income from oil sales since 1972 at the time. Oil revenue is Iraq’s main source of income, and the federal government relies on oil sales to cover its costs and pay the salaries of its civil servants.

OPEC oil output rises despite agreement to cut production targets OPEC oil output rose in December, a Reuters survey found on Wednesday, despite an agreement by the wider OPEC+ alliance to cut production targets to support the market. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)pumped 29.0 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, up 120,000 bpd from November. In September, OPEC output had been its highest since 2020. December’s rise was led by recovering output in Nigeria, which has been battling for months with crude theft and insecurity in its oil-producing region. Many Nigerian crude streams produced more in December, sources in the survey said, with some companies citing improving security. OPEC+ had been boosting output for most of 2022 as demand recovered. For November, with oil prices weakening, the group made its largest cut to production targets since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Its decision from November called for a 2 million bpd cut to the OPEC+ output target, of which about 1.27 million bpd was meant to come from the 10 participating OPEC countries. The same target applied in December. With the rebound in Nigerian output in December, compliance with the agreement weakened slightly to 161% of pledged cuts, according to the survey, down from 163% in November. Output is still undershooting targeted amounts because many producers – notably Nigeria and Angola – lack the capacity to pump at the agreed levels. The 10 OPEC members required to cut production pumped 780,000 bpd below the group’s December target, the survey found. The shortfall in November was 800,000 bpd.

Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Prices To Asian Markets Amid Sluggish Demand Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter, on Thursday cut the prices of all its crude grades loading for Asia in February to the lowest level to regional benchmarks in more than a year, as demand concerns continue to prevail.Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant, cut the official selling price (OSPs) of its flagship crude grade, Arab Light, to Asia for February by $1.45 per barrel, setting the price at $1.80 a barrel above the Dubai/Oman benchmark. The premium to the Dubai/Oman average is the lowest since November 2021, but it was generally in line with expectations. Earlier this week, a Reuters survey of analysts showed that Saudi Aramco was widely expected to cut its OSPs to Asia for February, following a cut for the January loadings to a 10-month-low. Last month, Saudi Arabia cut the price of the crude it would sell to Asia in January to a 10-month low versus the regional benchmarks, which had weakened amid signs of lackluster demand in the world’s most important oil-importing market. The forecasts in the Reuters survey were in line with the actual cut announced today—analysts had expected the price of the Arab Light crude grade to be cut by $1.50 per barrel for February shipments to a premium of just $1.75 per barrel over Dubai/Oman. Aramco, which generally doesn’t comment on the OSPs, also lowered the prices of its crude loading in February to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean region, while prices for the U.S. remained unchanged.

Oil Nosedives on US Dollar Rally, Nigerian Oil Output Recovery -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled the first trading session of 2023 sharply lower, pressuring West Texas Intermediate below $77 per barrel (bbl). The losses came on the back of a rallying U.S. dollar and reports suggesting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries once again raised oil production in December amid recoveries in Nigerian and Iraqi output. OPEC boosted oil production by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month to 29.14 million bpd, according to industry surveys, with Nigeria -- Africa's second-largest oil producer, recovering a chunk of its previously lost crude output. In December, Nigeria pumped 1.4 million bpd, up from 1.1 million bpd seen just three months ago. Even with those gains, Nigeria's oil production is about half of what it was a decade ago amid internal strife. Nigeria's government has repeatedly called for an end to violence and theft along the oil-producing Niger River delta region. The government of strong-man Muhammadu Buhari has reportedly hired loyal warlords to secure safe passage of oil and personnel in the region. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Co. plans to build on the progress, according to a report in Lagos-based newspaper, aiming to raise output to its pre-pandemic high of 1.9 million bpd. NNPC started to drill for oil and gas at the field outside of Niger Delta for the first time in November, seeking to produce an additional 1 million bpd by 2025. OPEC and its allies, a 23-nation bloc known as OPEC+, agreed to collectively reduce output by 2 million bpd to 41.856 million bpd beginning in November, and then hold production steady at that rate for all of 2023. However, questions remain whether OPEC+ would raise production again as China reopens its economy in 2023 and some members, namely Nigeria, raises output unilaterally. Oil complex came under selling pressure earlier in the session after China reported its manufacturing and service sectors of the economy fell deeper into contraction in December to the lowest level since February 2020. The services index in particular was hard hit amid an abrupt end to a long-held policy of zero-COVID as people pulled back on mobility and businesses closed down.   China's economy is still expected to grow robustly in 2023, with the Energy Information Administration projecting a 600,000 bpd or 4% annual increase in oil demand to 15.76 million bpd next year. Further weighing on the oil complex at the start of the new year is a strengthening U.S. dollar index which settled 1% stronger against a basket of foreign currencies at 104.312, while the U.S. stock market reversed earlier gains to finish the session with losses. Tuesday's move lower in financial markets came on the back of dire forecasts from International Monetary Fund Director Kristina Georgieva who warned over the weekend that the global economy faces "a tough year ahead, tougher than the year we leave behind." At settlement, West Texas Intermediate for February delivery fell below $77 per bbl to $76.93, down $3.33 per bbl on the session, and Brent March futures declined $3.81 to $82.10 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB February contract dropped $0.1171 to $2.3612 per gallon, and front-month ULSD futures were down $0.2085 to $3.0865 per gallon.

Oil begins 2023 with 4% plunge as China to IMF spook trade -- It’s looking to be a happy new year for oil bears thus far as tumbling China factory activity and IMF warnings of a global recession signaled pain at least in the near term for those long on the crude trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in February settled down $3.33, or 4.1%, at $76.93 per barrel, after dropping to as low as $76.64 earlier. WTI, as the U.S. crude benchmark is known, finished 2022 up 6.7%. U.K.-origin Brent crude for delivery in February settled down $3.81, or 4.4%, at $82.10 per barrel, after a session low at $81.80. Brent ended last year up 10.5%. Chinese manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month in December, a private survey showed on Tuesday, as the country grappled with an unprecedented spike in coronavirus cases after it relaxed some restrictions intended to prevent the spread of the virus. President Xi Jinping recently said that China’s economy grew 4.4% in 2022 - a figure much higher than markets anticipated. But he also noted that the country faces increased headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic in the coming months. The figures provide a snapshot of the challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers who now have to contend with surging infections after the country's abrupt COVID policy U-turn in early December. People in China’s biggest cities have braved the cold and a rise in COVID-19 infections since the start of the year to return to regular activity, raising hopes for an economic boost in the world’s largest importing nation. China has raised its first batch of 2023 export quotas for refined oil products by nearly half versus a year ago to spur refinery output, capture strong export margins and adapt to slow domestic demand. Recession fears are also back at the front and center of crude markets with the International Monetary Fund kicking 2023 off with a tough warning that the world’s three main growth centers — the United States, Europe and China — were all experiencing weakening activity. Tuesday’s plunge in crude prices came ahead of a decision on global production expected from OPEC+, which groups 23 of the world’s oil producers in an alliance led by Saudi Arabia and co-steered by Russia. OPEC+ has faced challenges to keeping oil markets higher after a G7 price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian sea-borne crude that Moscow has objected to but done little to offset. “The G7 price cap has had little impact so far, the same can be said of Russia's response,” noted Erlam. “But that could change if oil prices keep moving higher, nudging Russian crude ever closer to the cap level and forcing some very difficult decisions.”

Oil Prices Plunge Below $80 As Near-Term Demand Worries Grow - Oil prices crashed early on Wednesday, with Brent Crude falling below the $80 a barrel mark again, as concerns about immediate global oil demand intensified with soaring Covid cases in China and slowing economies globally. As of 8:33 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, had plummeted below $75 per barrel and traded down by 2.68% at $74.91. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, dipped below $80 and the front-month contract was down by 2.70% at $79.92. Oil prices continued on Wednesday the Tuesday rout when both benchmarks dipped by 4% and Brent plummeted the most in one day in more than three months. The recent sell-off in oil was the result of gloomy economic expectations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the state of the Chinese and global economy in the early weeks of 2023, and a strong U.S. dollar. Surging Covid cases in China and a slowdown in the Chinese economy are expected to weigh on oil demand and prices in the immediate term. The Chinese economy is off to a difficult start to 2023, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told the CBS program Face the Nation in an interview aired on Sunday. China’s re-opening and the surge in infections that followed is “bad news” for the global economy in the short term, Georgieva said. The market is currently focused on a short-term deterioration in demand as China struggles with Covid-19, milder weather reduces demand for heating fuels, and the IMF’s latest warning that one-third of the world may suffer a recession in 2023, Saxo Bank said on Wednesday. “In Brent, the uptrend from early December looks challenged with a break below $81 signalling further loss of momentum, initially towards $79.65,” the bank’s strategists said.

Oil down as global economic downturn leads to weak demand fears - Oil prices slumped on Wednesday after diving more than 4% during the previous trading session as the global recession is expected to cool down oil consumption. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $81.74 per barrel at 09.56 a.m. local time (0656GMT), down 0.43% from the closing price of $82.10 a barrel in the previous trading session. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $76.50 per barrel at the same time, a 0.55% loss after the previous session closed at $76.93 a barrel. Both benchmarks recorded rapid declines, with Brent losing almost $5 a barrel during Tuesday’s choppy trading session. The weaker demand worries put downward pressure on prices, especially after the IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said one-third of the world's economies are expected to go into recession in 2023. "Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people," Georgieva told CBS news on Sunday. The year ahead will be tougher than 2022 for most of the world economy as the US, EU, and China are slowing down, said Georgieva. Noting that the EU was hit "very severely" by the ongoing war in Ukraine, Georgieva said half of the bloc would be in recession this year. She added that the outlook for emerging markets in developing economies was even direr due to interest rate hikes and a strong US dollar. Adding more to demand worries, the world's second-largest economy China significantly increased its first batch of 2023 export quotas for refined oil products, which shows that the country is expecting less consumption.

Oil Futures Tumble to 3-Week Low After Fed Minutes Show More Rate Hikes  -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange posted steep losses for a second straight session on Wednesday. The losses came after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting revealed no interest rate cuts are on the horizon in 2023, as central bank officials signaled they are committed to fighting inflation despite growing risks of pushing the economy into recession. Oil markets kicked off the new year with a spectacular selloff, sending front-month West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures as much as $7 per barrel (bbl) lower during just the first two trading sessions of 2023. Investors see higher potential for deeper demand destruction this year both domestically and in other major economies. In China, an abrupt end to zero-COVID policies has so far led to rising infections and a pullback on basic mobility as the Chinese remain deeply skeptical over available vaccines and hospital capacity. Even though early signs point to some recovery in public transportation usage, the real impact on fuel demand won't be noticeable until after Lunar New Year holidays that take place on Jan. 22. More evidence of demand losses in Asian markets can be found in shipping data for Russian oil exports that fell to a 2022 low in the final weeks of the year as China, Turkey, and India pulled back on crude purchases. Bloomberg data shows four-week average oil shipments out of Russian ports fell 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) through Dec. 31 to 2.615 million bpd. That drop came despite steep discounts offered by Russian operators that are currently selling the Urals blend -- Russia's flagship crude benchmark -- at a $30 discount to the global benchmark Brent. Domestically, minutes from the FOMC's Dec. 13-14 meeting released Wednesday afternoon showed not a single official forecast a cut in the federal funds rate this year despite expectations by some market observers for the central bank to pivot from its aggressive monetary tightening. "Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which was likely to take some time," the meeting's summary states. "In view of the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several participants commented that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy." At settlement, WTI for February delivery fell below $73 per bbl to $72.84, down $4.09 on the session, and Brent March futures declined $4.26 to $77.84 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB February contract dropped $0.1020 to $2.2592 per gallon, and front-month ULSD futures ended down $0.1146 to $2.9719 per gallon.

WTI Extends Gains After Small Crude Build, SPR At 1983 Lows | ZeroHedgeOil prices are hovering in the green after a roller-coaster overnight as Saudi Arabia slashed its crude prices, signaling tepid demand, and risk-off sentiment clipped broader markets. Dollar strength this morning after solid labor market data is also not helping crude. Crude inventory figures later Thursday will give a first insight into the impact of pre-Christmas cold weather on US stockpiles, after the American Petroleum Institute reported a build on Wednesday. API

• Crude +3.30mm
• Cushing +700k
• Gasoline +1.20mm
• Distillates -2.40mm

DOE:

• Crude +1.69mm (+1.1mm exp)
• Cushing +244k
• Gasoline -346k
• Distillates -1.427mm

US crude stockpiles rose for a second straight week (though built less than API reported) while gasoline inventories drew down for a second week...

Oil Up as US Stockpiles Rose Below Expectations – - Oil rallied after US crude stockpiles rose less than anticipated, countering the dour outlook reflected by Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut its prices. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.1% to settle above $73 a barrel, after swinging in a $2 range. US crude and refined product exports rose 1.33 million barrels last week, keeping inventories in check, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Traders viewed the data as a sign that global demand persists for US products, despite worries that China’s struggles with Covid will delay its economic recovery. “The higher exports were the reason for the more bullish reaction,” said Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors, which manages roughly $8 billion in energy-related assets. Earlier, crude pared gains after state-controlled Saudi Aramco cut crude prices to Asia and Europe, a signal that the market interpreted as demand remaining sluggish. Crude was off to a gloomy start to the year with futures curves continuing to signal a market that is oversupplied. At the same time, the oil market is grappling with lower levels of participation, which can lead to swings that seem larger than the fundamental data supports. Open interest remains near multiyear lows, leaving prices susceptible to large intraday swings. WTI for February delivery rose 83 cents to settle at $73.67 a barrel in New York. Brent for March settlement rose 85 cents to settle at $78.69 a barrel.

Oil settles flat, with weekly decline on recession worries (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Friday as the market balanced a weaker U.S. dollar and mixed U.S. jobs reports, but both crude benchmarks ended the first week of the year lower due to global recession concerns. Brent futures fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $78.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $73.77. For the week, both Brent and WTI were down over 8%, their biggest weekly dives to start the year since 2016. Both benchmarks had gained about 13% during the prior three weeks. U.S. services industry activity in November contracted for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years, according to a report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). But another report showed the U.S. economy added jobs at a solid clip in December, pushing the unemployment rate back to a pre-pandemic low of 3.5% as the labor market remains tight. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies. Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said the latest U.S. jobs figures are another sign that the economy is gradually slowing and should that continue the Fed can step down to a quarter percentage point interest rate hike at its next policy meeting. The world's top crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, lowered prices for the Arab light crude it sells to Asia to its lowest since November 2021 amid the global pressures hitting oil. Stock markets in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, logged a five-day winning streak on Friday on investors' expectations that the Chinese economy would soon emerge from its COVID woes and stage a robust recovery in 2023. But, more countries around the world are demanding visitors from China take COVID tests, days before China drops border controls and ushers in an eagerly awaited return to travel for a population that has been largely stuck at home for three years. Euro zone inflation tumbled last month but underlying price pressures are still rising and economic growth indicators are surprisingly benign, suggesting that the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates for months to come. India's government expects economic growth to slow in the financial year ending March, as pandemic-related distortions ease and pent-up demand for goods levels out going into 2023.

Netanyahu- Despicable UN Vote Has No Bearing On Israel - The United Nations General Assembly on Friday passed a resolution asking the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to evaluate the legality of Israel's “prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of Palestinian territory.” In a video message, Prime Minister Benjamin Netayahu was quick to condemn the UN vote as a "despicable decision" that has no bearing on Israel -- a government that sprang into existence in 1948 in the wake of a UN General Assembly recommendation to partition Palestine. "The Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land nor occupiers in our eternal capital Jerusalem and no UN resolution can distort that historical truth," said Netanyahu. Friday's UN resolution also asks the ICJ to give an advisory opinion on Israeli "measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Holy City of Jerusalem, and from its adoption of related discriminatory legislation and measures." Jewish settlers and Israeli authorities have been intensifying their efforts to push Palestinians out of occupied East Jerusalem, with the neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah emerging as a particular flash point. The UN vote comes after Netanyahu's formation of the most ultra-nationalist and religious government in in the country's history. Last week, Netanyahu's government declared that “the Jewish people have an exclusive and inalienable right to all parts of the Land of Israel," including the West Bank and Golan Heights. With the new leadership bent on the even more expansion of West Bank settlements-- and thus threatening to obliterate the long-running fictional pursuit of a "two-state solution" -- a leery Biden White House is dispatching national security advisor Jake Sullivan to the Israel for a mid-January visit. Friday's General Assembly's ICJ resolution passed by an 87-26 vote, with 53 members abstaining. In voting against the measure, Israel and the United States were joined by countries that included Australia, Austria, Canada, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. France abstained, while Russia, China, Ireland, Portugal and Saudi Arabia were among the yes votes.

Zionists to face consequences of desecrating al-Aqsa Mosque - Mehr News Agency   – The Zionists Regime will face huge consequences for desecrating al-Aqsa Mosque, the Iranian Foreign Minister said in a telephone conversation with the Secretary General of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian held a telephone conversation with Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Hissein Brahim Taha on Thursday. The two sides discussed the latest developments in the region and the Muslim world, including the recent storming of the al-Aqsa Mosque by the Zionist regime's security minister, the recent insulting move by a notorious French magazine, and the situation of women in Afghanistan. Amir-Abdollahian stressed that the consequences of storming Al-Aqsa Mosque will be grave for the fake regime of Israel. The Iranian diplomat also proposed creating an effective legal and international mechanism to stop offensive acts against sacred religious sites. He also appreciated the stance of the Secretary General of the OIC in condemning the recent Zionist desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the sacrilegious move by a notorious French magazine. Referring to the responsibility of the French government in this regard, the top Iranian diplomat underlined that the trace of the Zionists can be seen in the move by the notorious French magazine. Hissein Brahim Taha, for his part, condemned the recent Zionist desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, expressing worry about the Zionist regime's minister's move in storming the al-Aqsa Mosque. Terming such provocative actions by the Zionists as disturbing peace and stability in the region, the OIC SG emphasized that he is discussing various bodies to pressure the Zionist regime to stop such moves. He further condemned the insulting action by the French Magazine Charlie Hebdo and added, "We are investigating the issue to take proportionate action to respond to it."

Taliban Signs Oil Deal With Chinese - The Taliban’s signing of an international oil deal with the Chinese was televised on Thursday--its first international agreement since it took over Afghanistan in August 2021, according to the Diplomat. The Taliban struck a 25-year deal with China-based Xinjiang central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC) for the Amu Darya oil project. Under the terms of the deal, CAPEIC will invest $150 million per year over the next three years in Afghanistan, then $540 million per year for the next 22 years. The Taliban will carry a 20% share in the project but will have the option to increase its stake to 75%. The Amu Darya oil project will encompass a 4,500 square kilometer area that will be explored over the next three years, during which between 1,000 and 20,000 tons of oil will be extracted, the Taliban’s Acting Minister of Minerals and Petroleum Shahabuddin Dilawar said. The crude from Amu Darya will be refined in-country, but the Chinese could build the refinery. The Amu Darya basin was previously estimated to hold up to 87 million barrels of crude. CNPC made a deal with the former republic government in Afghanistan over a decade ago to exploit the same resources. Under that former deal, the Afghani powers at the time claimed to be ready for production, according to the Diplomat, but work was stopped shortly thereafter. Since then, the project and its prospects haven’t been the topic of much discussion. Russia also signed a preliminary deal with the Taliban back in October to provide key fuels to Afghanistan—although officially, Russia recognizes it as a terrorist group, Iran has showed a willingness to trade with the Taliban as well. The Taliban’s rule over Afghanistan is precarious and unrecognized by the world. And like Russia, the Taliban has found itself mostly cut off from the global banking system.

China’s Economy Likely Contracted Last Quarter, Beige Book Says - -- China’s manufacturing, services and property sectors all weakened sharply in the fourth quarter due to Covid disruptions, resulting in a potential contraction in the economy in the final months of the year, a private survey shows. Indexes measuring profits, sales and employment at manufacturing and services companies slumped in the last three months of 2022 from the previous quarter and a year ago, China Beige Book International said Monday. The results are based on a survey of 4,354 businesses conducted last quarter.  The figures imply that China's gross domestic product likely contracted in the fourth quarter from a year ago in real terms and grew only 2% for the whole year of 2022, CBBI, a provider of independent economic data, said in its report

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un vows ‘exponential’ increase in nuclear arsenal -  — North Korea began the new year with a ballistic missile test and its leader Kim Jong Un’s resolve for an “exponential increase” in its nuclear weapons arsenal in 2023, as the country barrels forward with its nuclear program while negotiations remain deadlocked for nearly four years. Capping the Workers’ Party’s policy meeting to discuss goals for 2023, Kim called for his country to “overwhelmingly beef up” its military muscle in the face of threats by South Korea and the United States, state media reported Sunday. Those efforts include a new ICBM for the purpose of delivering a “quick nuclear counterstrike,” and the launch of the country’s first reconnaissance satellite. Kim’s message indicates that 2023 may look a lot like 2022, with the North Korean leader becoming more resolute about advancing his country’s program, which he views as critical leverage with the world. Last year, North Korea conducted an unprecedented number of ballistic missile tests, and Washington, Seoul and Tokyo have banded closer together with a tougher line toward Pyongyang. Kim announced in September that there would be “absolutely no denuclearization, no negotiation and no bargaining chip to trade,” regardless of economic sanctions from the international community. North Korea has rejected overtures to resume talks unless Washington reverses what Pyongyang considers “hostile policies” and provides sanctions relief and security guarantees. North Korea vehemently objects to joint military drills by the United States and its allies, as well as the presence of U.S. nuclear-armed bombers and submarines in the region. South Korea clings to North’s denuclearization, despite dwindling chances Kim’s call for the increase in his nuclear arsenal comes as North Korea appears to shift its decades-long position on Washington, Beijing and Moscow. Both China and Russia have drawn North Korea closer than ever, and the two countries have consistently rejected efforts at the U.N. Security Council to punish North Korea for its ballistic missile tests, which has allowed Kim to aggressively improve its weapons capabilities with near impunity.

Putin Sends Warship Armed With Hypersonic Missiles To Atlantic & Indian Oceans -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered a warship armed with new hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles to be deployed on a mission to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, in what could be a message and warning aimed at the West against escalating in Ukraine. The deployment of the frigate appears intended to make maximum possible public impact, given the announcement was made by Putin himself in a televised conference call with his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. Along with Shoigu, Putin addressed Igor Krokhmal, commander of the frigate which bears the name "Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov" - and reminded him the ship while on mission is armed with Zircon hypersonic weapons - again in a coordinated message which unveiled the deployment to the public for the first time. "This time the ship is equipped with the latest hypersonic missile system – 'Zircon' – which has no analogs," Putin said. "I would like to wish the crew of the ship success in their service for the good of the Motherland." The ship is expected to also enter the Mediterranean Sea at some point while on its Atlantic mission, though the timeline of the voyage remains unclear. "This ship, armed with 'Zircons', is capable of delivering pinpoint and powerful strikes against the enemy at sea and on land," Shoigu had responded to the Putin announcement. The defense chief also stressed the Zircon is undefeatable, able to evade any anti-air defense system in the world due to its purported ability to fly at nine times the speed of sound.

Zelensky’s Bloody War Against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church - - Yves Smith -  Mark Sleboda provides a comprehensive account of this situation in a new post, Zelenskiy’s Pogrom Against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. I strongly urge you to read it in full (it is particularly well documented) but nevertheless hazard a recap below. Sleboda depicts the Orthodox Church led by the patriarch in Moscow as being cohesive from the 14th century notably even during the Communist era when it was in some disfavor but not disallowed, through the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. After that, political jurisdictions didn’t match up with the map of the patriarch’s authority, but the squabbles weren’t unmanageable. That changed with the 2014 Maidan coup. Even though the Ukrainian Orthodox Church suspended its ties with the patriarch in Moscow as of February 2014, denounced Patriarch’ Krill’s backing of the Special Military Operation, and planned a procession to support the Azov goons Ukraine forces besieged in the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol.Nevertheless, these efforts to show loyalty to the regime were not sufficient, since the objective was deRussification. From Sleboda:  A decision was made following the US-backed Maidan Putsch in 2014 that in order to permanently geopolitically divide Ukraine from Russia that the cultural and religious bonds uniting the two peoples must be severed as well.The creation of a new “Orthodox Church of Ukraine” (OCU) with a new Patriarch in Kiev was pushed by the Kiev Putsch regime and manufactured into being in 2018. The Kiev Patriarch Filaret even gave CIA ops chief, Jack Devine, an award for his support in the creation of the new ecclesiastically- independent Ukrainian Orthodox church. Incidentally he gave an award to US neocon John McCain as well. That should tell you everything you need to know.Since seizing power 2014 and accelerating dramatically in the last year, the US-backed Putsch regime in Kiev has been carrying out a very real pogrom against the Orthodox churches and parishioners across Ukraine who do not accept the rule and strictures of its newly manufactured Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU)…Zelenskiy has given an address declaring the regime’s “crackdown” on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, its parishes, priests, and parishioners and drafted legislation to ban and outlaw the Ukrainian Orthodox Christian church completely,  ominously intoning “We will never allow anyone to build an empire inside the Ukrainian soul.” Because the regime apparently is now dictating even what happens in Ukrainian’s souls. he Kiev Putsch regime’s intelligence services, the SBU have also launched inquisition-like raids at monasteries and churches across the country under the guise of “counter-intelligence measures” to hunt for and root out “collaborators” and “traitors of the Ukrainian people”, searching for such damning evidence as prayer books or religious literature still in the Russian language or icons of Russian saints that prove they are acting as subversive “cells of the Russian world”. Priests have been physically dragged out of their churches, imprisoned for their heretical views, and sometimes, as in the case of Father Sergey Tarasov of Kiev,  even executed in cold-blood. Parishioners as well have been harassed, beaten, and dragged out of their churches, often in the middle of mass. The Western press is misleading citizens by hiding the true face of our falsely sanctified ally in Kiev, who has shut down opposition press, opposition parties, and jailed opposition leaders. Or perhaps this is the kind of democracy that is coming to America, witness the spread of tech-enforced censorship via banning and shadow banning, demonetizing, and search downranking.

European Debt Defaults Seen Surging in Echo of Covid Turmoil -Credit defaults are set to more than double in Europe this year to levels approaching the worst days of the global coronavirus pandemic.That’s the view of S&P Global Inc., which expects the trailing 12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to reach 3.25% by September 2023, up from 1.4% a year earlier,

UK food prices rose at record rate in December, hitting 13.3% - UK food prices rose at a record pace in December, hitting an inflation rate of 13.3%, up from 12.4% in November, according to the latest figures from the British Retail Consortium. This is above the three-month average rate of 12.5%, the highest inflation rate in the food category on record. "It was a challenging Christmas for many households across the UK. Not only did the cold snap force people to spend more on their energy bills, but the prices of many essential foods also rose as reverberations from the war in Ukraine continued to keep high the cost of animal feed, fertiliser and energy," Helen Dickinson, CEO of the consortium, said in a statement. She said 2023 will be another "difficult year" for consumers and businesses as inflation shows "no immediate signs of waning." Mike Watkins, the head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ, said also said consumer demand is likely to be weak in Q1 due to the impact of energy price rises and for many, Christmas spending bills starting to arrive. "So the increase in food inflation is going to put further pressure on household budgets and it’s unlikely that there will be any improvement in the consumer mind-set around personal finances in the near term," he said.