global glass onion: week ending Jul 22

Fed faces broader debate as it tees up rate hike - (Reuters) - Since the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates on hold at its June 13-14 policy meeting, U.S. central bank officials have given every indication they are ready to approve another small rate increase when they gather again next week. But recent data suggesting inflation has begun to slow in a faster and more persistent way will likely intensify their debate over whether the coming move will be the last one needed, with policymakers honing in on the key issue of whether the economy has fully absorbed the impact of the aggressive monetary tightening to date or is only beginning to adjust. In one case, more rate increases might be needed to ensure "disinflation" continues; in the other, weakened price pressures are already in the pipeline, and doing more could cause unnecessary damage to the economy and the job market. Officials' rhetoric has leaned towards further hikes beyond the July 25-26 meeting, when the Fed's policy-setting committee is expected to raise the benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.25%-5.50% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has noted the majority view that two additional rate increases would be needed, and Governor Christopher Waller made the case for tighter policy in the central bank leadership's final remarks before the blackout on public comments ahead of this month's meeting. Last year's rate increases "should hit economic activity and inflation much faster than is typically predicted," Waller said, and thus "we can't expect much more slowing of demand and inflation from that tightening." While recent inflation data was encouraging, he said, "one data point does not make a trend." Economists typically see the impact of monetary policy peaking at around 18 to 24 months after rate changes, but Fed officials have noted that their use of "forward guidance" to flag the path of policy means market rates adjusted well in advance of the rate hikes they rolled out beginning in March of 2022. Other Fed officials have hewed to the main strategic thrust of keeping rate-hike options open and not giving investors room to think the central bank is finished - undercutting the battle against inflation with looser financial conditions as a result. But arguably for the first time since the Fed's first quarter-percentage-point rate hike in March 2022, the possibility that this upcoming move will be the last one has gained traction beyond the wishful thinking of investors and started to be supported by incoming data.

Despite shakeup at the Fed, a rate hike in September is likely — Some Federal Reserve officials are already advocating for two consecutive rate hikes starting this month to ensure inflation’s defeat, but will their sway hold amid a shakeup at the Fed committee that decides interest rates?Probably.St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed’s most hawkish voice, announced Thursday he is stepping down in August. Economist Adriana Kugler, known for her dovish posture, is likely to win Senate confirmation for a governor role at the central bank.While a July rate hike has been baked in for some time, the Fed’s decision in September isn’t as clear and plenty of data will be released until then.What is clear, however, is that the Fed chair historically has a major influence in the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s monetary policymaking arm. Fed Chair Powell has said the Fed still has more work to do, and he himself hasn’t ruled out back-to-back rate hikes. The central bank has a tradition of collegiality, meaning that although officials debate their views, they still respect the view of the majority. That’s why the vote in June was unanimous, despite the debating that was evident from the meeting minutes, released earlier this month.Right now, it seems like the hawks outnumber the doves.Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has a permanent vote on the Fed committee that decides interest rates, doubled down late last week on the widely held view among Fed officials that two more rate hikes are needed this year.“Since the June meeting, with another month of data to evaluate lending conditions, I am more confident that the banking turmoil is not going to result in a significant problem for the economy, and I see no reason why the first of those two hikes should not occur at our meeting later this month,” Waller said at a Money Marketeers of New York University forum on Thursday.But he also suggested that the Fed prefers to get rate hikes over with as soon as possible.“From there, I will need to see how the data come in,” he said. “If inflation does not continue to show progress and there are no suggestions of a significant slowdown in economic activity, then a second 25-basis-point [quarter-point] hike should come sooner rather than later, but that decision is for the future.”In other words, if inflation’s slowdown stalls, the labor market remains strong by historical standards and if the economy’s expansion cools only marginally, it would be best to rip the bandage off and hike in September.The longer inflation remains elevated, “the greater the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored,” according to the minutes from the June meeting. That means there’s a dangerous risk Americans could simply begin to accept permanently higher prices if inflation doesn’t come down soon.The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to raise its key federal funds rate later this month after it paused in June after 10 straight rate hikes. Officials voted to hold rates steady at a range of 5-5.25% to reassess the economy’s health, but mostly over uncertainty about how bank stresses from the spring would affect access to credit.The minutes from that meeting showed officials weren’t as united in their decision, even though they eventually voted to pause unanimously. So far, most officials have signaled that the bias is toward a hike in July, after they voted to hawkishly pause last month.But the decision in September will be a difficult one because the Fed will have to decide whether to get its second hike out of the way or wait for worse signs that inflation is not on track to hit the central bank’s target of 2%. And officials have made clear they want inflation to come down as soon as possible.So will Kugler’s addition to the FOMC convince the hawks that a hike in September isn’t necessary? Kugler is a labor economist, so she’s well attuned to the Fed’s employment mandate. But she also recognizes that the focus right now is on inflation.“I truly believe that both sides of the mandate are very important,” she told lawmakers last month during her confirmation hearing. “Right now, the inflation side is critical.”

US Dollar’s Status as Global Reserve Currency on Slow Long-Term Decline, but Not Going Down in a Straight Line by Wolf Richter - The US dollar as dominant global reserve currency has been on a slow long-term downward trend, interrupted by upticks. And now we had an uptick, when the dollar gained share. The share of the USD as global reserve currency rose to 59.0% in the first quarter of 2023, after having dropped to 58.6% in Q4, which had been the dollar’s lowest share since 1994, according to the IMF’s recent COFER data. The US dollar as global reserve currency means that foreign central banks and foreign official institutions hold USD-denominated assets, such as Treasury securities, agency securities, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, etc. They also hold competing foreign exchange reserves in other currencies, such as in euros (#2), and in yen (#3). But holdings in their own local currency are not foreign exchange reserves and are not included; so the Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries and MBS are not included; the ECB’s euro-denominated assets are not included, etc. What happened in 1978 that caused the dollar’s share to collapse from 85% to 46% by 1991? After inflation exploded in the US in the late 1970s, the world lost trust in the Fed’s ability to manage inflation. Even as inflation backed off in the 1980s, it took a long time for the world to regain confidence in the dollar. When it did, the dollar’s share rebounded until the euro came along and stopped that bounce in its tracks. Since then, the euro has been the undisputed #2 global reserve currency with a share of around 20%. In dollar terms, the holdings of USD-denominated assets at central banks other than the Fed rose to $6.58 trillion, the second quarter in a row of increases, after three quarters in a row of declines. The other major reserve currencies. The euro, perennially #2: Its share dipped in Q1 to 19.8%, from 20.4% in the prior quarter. The old dream of “parity” with the dollar as reserve currency has not yet come true. And at the current rate, it’s going to take a very long time and will require lots of patience. The Japanese yen, #3: Share of 5.5%, unchanged (purple in the chart below). The British pound, #4: Share of 4.9%, unchanged (blue, just under the yen). The Chinese renminbi, #5: its share has now dipped for four quarters in a row to 2.58%, the lowest since Q1 2021 (thick green line). The progress that had been expected has been waylaid by the reality of capital controls, convertibility issues, and other issues. Central banks appear to be leery of holding RMB-denominated assets. At this pace and direction, the RMB will never get close to the USD as reserve currency. China, as the second largest economy in the world, should have a larger share of global reserve currencies, but it’s just not happening. The other currencies in the pile at the bottom: Canadian dollar (2.43%, up a hair), Australian dollar (1.98%, up a hair), and Swiss franc (0.25%, up a hair). The other currencies, each with a share even smaller than the Swiss franc’s share, have a combined share of 3.65%.

Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-July 2023 -by Menzie Chinn --Industrial production surprises on the downside (-0.5% vs. 0% Bloomberg consensus m/m), as does manufacturing (-0.3% vs. 0% m/m). Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI), as well as GDPNow (Q2 up by 10 bps relative to 7/10). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), 2023Q2 is GDPNow of 7/18, all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 3rd release via FRED, Atlanta Fed (7/18), S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/3/2023 release), and author’s calculations. GDPNow for Q2 at 2.4% SAAR as of today. GS at 2.5%, while SPGMI at 1.7%. Retail sales were generally under consensus. Here’re time series of industrial production, manufacturing production, and retail sales deflated by final demand/finished goods PPI, over the same period shown in Figure 1. Figure 2: Industrial production (red, left log scale), manufacturing production (purple, left log scale), and retail sales ex-food services deflated by PPI final demand finished goods, millions 1982$ (green, right log scale), all seasonally adjusted. Source: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, BLS all via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Growth Prospects: July WSJ Survey by Menzie Chinn - The slowdown keeps on being moved back — according to consensus — to Q4. Mean forecast is for only one quarter of negative growth, but median has two (Q3, Q4). Figure 1: GDP (black), Mean forecast GDP from July WSJ survey (green), from April survey (blue), from January survey (red), GDPNow nowcast of 7/18 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA, WSJ surveys (various), and author’s calculations. While the mean forecast trajectory keeps on rising as actual GDP outcomes keep on surprising on the upside, forecasts are pretty dispersed, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2: GDP (black), Mean forecast GDP from July WSJ survey (green), median of Price/Ameriprise Financial (pink), 20% trimmed high of Feinup, Hamilton/Cal Lutheran Univ. (gray), trimmed low of Fratantoni/Mortgage Bankers Association (gray), GDPNow nowcast of 7/18 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA, WSJ surveys (various), and author’s calculations. The 20% trimmed high indicates 1.5% average annualized growth over the next 5 quarters (mean/median forecast is 0.68%/0.66%). The trimmed low is 0.46% Note that the sample high forecast (the irrepressible James F. Smith, now of EconForecaster) was 3%(!). Recession probabilities from the survey, contrasted with term spread based estimates — discussed in this post.

Time to Look at Foreign Demand for the Incredibly Ballooning US National Debt by Wolf Richter - Who is buying the ballooning US government debt that has now reached $32.5 trillion? That’s on everyone’s mind. For now, there is way too much demand for long-term Treasury securities, or else the 10-year yield wouldn’t be 3.8%, but 6.8%, and the 30-year yield would be further north. But maybe someday yields will have to rise to lure more buyers. Yield solves all demand issues. If you can’t sell them at 5%, try 5.1%. Just about anything will sell if the yield is high enough. That’s why even junk bonds find eager buyers. But we’re not there yet with Treasuries. Even foreign buyers are still loading up, particularly in Europe. But China and Japan, the two largest holders of Treasury securities, have been unloading. In total, all foreign holders held $7.53 trillion in Treasuries in May, down a hair from the record holdings in April, but up by 2.4% from a year ago (red line), according to the Treasury Department’s TIC data today. By contrast, the holdings of China and Hong Kong combined (purple) fell by 6.6% from a year ago, and the holdings of Japan (green) fell by 10.1% from a year ago. Both countries have for years been losing importance among foreign holders of the US debt: Foreign holders became less crucial. As the US debt has ballooned over the years, but foreign holdings have increased more slowly, the share of foreign holdings as a percent of the total federal debt has declined from the 33% range in 2014 to less than 24% in May. In other words, the US debt financing has become less dependent on foreign holders: Japan’s Ministry of Finance late last year cashed in some US-dollar assets, presumably Treasury securities, and then blew $68 billion in dollar-cash to buy yen in the foreign exchange market to prop up the yen after it had plunged to ¥150 to the dollar by October. And we can see that the MoF prepared for propping up the yen in advance. Japan started cashing out in August 2022, and by October, it had unloaded $132 billion in Treasury securities. Since then, its holdings have zigzagged higher again, and remain in the historical range. In May they dipped to $1.097 trillion, down by 10.1% from a year ago: China has been unloading Treasuries for years. In May, its holdings of Treasuries fell to $847 billion, the lowest in the data going back to 2011 (red in the chart below), down by 11.0% from a year ago. During the capital-flight panic in 2016, China sold Treasury securities to prop up the RMB. It then brought its holdings back to the declining trend. Since Covid, the decline of its holdings has accelerated. China and Hong Kong can be looked at together (green). Hong Kong’s holdings increased by $30 billion year-over-year (+16.4%), while China’s holdings dropped by $105 billion (-11.0%) year-over-year. Their combined holdings fell by 6.6%, to $1.06 trillion, matching the prior low points in October and February: The UK, third largest foreign holder. The City of London is a global financial center, so this isn’t the UK government or the Bank of England propping up US Treasuries, but it reflects activities of the financial center. Holdings had reached a new record in March, and have dipped for two months to $667 billion in May, up by 4.7% from a year ago: The financial centers. These are tiny countries that specialize in handling and often obscuring the financial holdings of global companies, individuals, and governments. And they have huge holdings of Treasury securities. Ireland is favorite place for US companies to store their profits and wealth:

Belgium, red, (home of Euroclear): $335.5 billion
Luxembourg: $334 billion
Switzerland: $304 billion
Cayman Islands: $263 billion
Ireland: $245 billion

Canada’s holdings rose to a new record of $266 billion, up by 17.9% year-over-year: Taiwan’s holdings dipped for the month to $240 billion, but were up 4.7% year-over-year:India’s holdings have been zigzagging higher for the entire period of the data going back to 2021, and for the last three months have been roughly flat at a record $238 billion, up by 17% year-over-year: Brazil’s holdings, after dropping for years, bounced off the record low in January and in May rose to $230 billion, roughly unchanged from a year ago:

Coons warns of government shutdown: We will ‘scare the hell out of you’ - Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) warned on Friday that a government shutdown appears likely, as Congress faces down a September deadline to pass its annual spending bills. “We are going to scare the hell out of you,” Coons said at the Aspen Security Forum, alongside Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and James Risch (R-Idaho). “We’re really good at that.” “On the debt ceiling, on default, we came right up to the end,” he continued. “We’re gonna have a government shutdown because we’re gonna fight between the House and Senate about appropriations. Maybe, I sure hope not. We keep coming right up close.” Lawmakers have until the end of September to pass the 12 annual appropriations bills to fund the government, but with the August recess approaching, they are staring down a tight deadline. However, Coons suggested that bipartisan efforts, like those between himself and his Republican colleagues on Friday’s panel, will ultimately get the job done. “In the end, it is exactly these kind of gentlemen with whom I am able to work and where we are able to continue to deliver sustained, strong, forward-leaning initiatives around strengthening our country, our defense, our military, our manufacturing and our system,” he said. “It’s really only because of the personal relationship that are at the core of the Senate that we’re still able to work,” he added.

Amid bipartisan support for war buildup against Russia and China, House Republicans load Pentagon bill with anti-abortion, anti-gay provisions-The annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) was only narrowly passed by the Republican-led House of Representatives on Friday, largely along party lines, despite overwhelming bipartisan support for the record military spending proposed in the Biden administration’s bill and its blueprint for expanded war against Russia and future war against China. The 1,200-page bill, which authorizes $886 billion for fiscal year 2024 (beginning October 1), is loaded with initiatives and funding proposals openly directed against Russia and China, including an additional $32 billion for nuclear weapons programs at the Energy Department. The bill passed out of the House Armed Services Committee last month by a vote of 58-1. It authorizes $300 million in security assistance for Ukraine and $600 million more than the Biden administration requested to respond to “security threats” in the Indo-Pacific region. It includes increased investment in precision missiles, warships and newer technologies like artificial intelligence and hypersonics, required, according to Biden, to take on China. It also authorizes a 5.2 percent base pay increase for military personnel and expanded support for their families through housing improvements and increased access to child care, healthcare and education benefits, all deemed necessary to reverse a decline in recruitment. The House Armed Services Committee posted an outline of the NDAA that includes the heading, “The FY24 NDAA provides the overmatch we need to counter CCP [Chinese Communist Party] aggression.” Among the items in the NDAA that were approved on a bipartisan basis, it lists:

Extends the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to enhance US deterrence and defense posture in the Indo-Pacific region. Funds the initiative at $9.7 billion, an increase of $600 million over Biden’s budget request.
Rejects the Biden administration’s effort to reduce the size of the Navy.
Builds more projection forces (battle force ships and ISR aircraft) than requested to ensure overmatch in a CCP fight.
Increases funding for innovative new technologies needed to deter the CCP on future battlefields, including AI, autonomous systems, cyber, mobile micronuclear reactors and high energy lasers.
Requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to undertake efforts to expand the deployable capacity of US nuclear forces to counter the CCP’s unprecedented nuclear buildup.

Despite the bipartisan consensus on this war-mongering plan, on Thursday, far-right members of the Republican Conference prevailed on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to support a series of amendments embedding the GOP’s anti-abortion, anti-gay and anti-DEI (“diversity-equity-inclusion”) agenda in the bill. Aimed at mobilizing the Republican Party’s right-wing base, the amendments forced the Democratic leadership in the narrowly divided chamber to withdraw its support and call for a vote against the bill. As a result, the House version of the NDAA, which has passed with broad bipartisan support for the past 60 years, was only approved by a vote of 219 to 210. Four far-right members of the House Freedom Caucus—Andy Biggs (Arizona), Eli Crane (Arizona), Ken Buck (Colorado) and Thomas Massie (Kentucky)—voted against the bill, while four “moderate” Democrats—Don Davis (North Carolina), Jared Golden (Maine), Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (Washington) and Gabe Vasquez (New Mexico)—voted in favor.

House Passes $886 Billion National Defense Authorization Act - The House on Friday passed its version 2024 National Defense Authorization Act in a vote of 219-210, which largely fell along partisan lines due to amendments added by Republicans relating to social policies in the military.The Republican amendments covered abortion, transgender surgery, and diversity initiatives. Only four Democrats voted in favor of the bill, and four Republicans voted against it. The four Republicans who opposed the NDAA are Reps. Thomas Massie (KY), Eli Crane (AZ), Andy Biggs (AZ), and Ken Buck (CO).The Senate still needs to pass its version of the NDAA, then the two chambers will negotiate the final version that will go to President Biden’s desk. The Republican amendments packed into the House version will set up a fight between the two chambers as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other Democrats will reject them.The 2024 NDAA is for a record $886 billion, the same amount President Biden requested. The debt ceiling deal reached between House Republicans in the White House did not limit military spending and put no caps onemergency supplemental funds, which is how the US has been spending on the war in Ukraine.As the House was debating the NDAA, several amendments introduced by Republicans looking to rein in US support for Ukraine were voted down. One amendment sponsored by Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) would have required the Biden administration to develop a strategy for the war in Ukraine. It was rejected in a vote of 129-301, with only Republicans supporting it.One amendment introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene would have cut $300 million in military aid for Ukraine that’s packed into the NDAA, but it failed in a vote of 89-341. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) put forward an amendment to cut off all military assistance for Ukraine, which failed in a vote of 70-358. Only Republicans supported the two amendments.Greene sponsored another amendment that would have prohibited the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine, although US cluster bombs have already arrived in the country. The effort failed in a vote of 147-276. It received support from 98 Republicans and 49 Democrats.

US House rebuffs bid by Republican hardliners to end some sanctions (Reuters) - The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday turned back a bid by hardline conservatives to end five presidential emergency declarations that allow for sanctions against America's enemies in the Middle East and Africa. Four Republican Representatives - Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane - used separate measures known as privileged resolutions to require votes on whether to end longstanding emergency declarations involving Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Libya and Democratic Republic of Congo. The House overwhelmingly rejected the resolutions in a series of votes, after mainstream Republicans and Democrats warned that ending the emergencies would unfreeze the assets of militia leaders, arms dealers and accused war criminals, while denying compensation to U.S. victims of terrorism. The hardliners said the emergency declarations, dating back to the presidencies of Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Barack Obama, were out-of-date and had become examples of the "deep state," former President Donald Trump's conspiratorial term for Washington officials who opposed his will. It marked the latest effort by hardline conservatives to force Democrats, fellow Republicans and their own party leaders to vote on controversial measures that otherwise would not reach the House floor or be a long time in coming. "Nothing gets accomplished here without force," said Boebert, a Colorado firebrand who pursued a similar legislative avenue last month in an effort to force a vote on a measure to impeach Biden.

'Toxic amendments': Schumer prepares to fight far-right proposals in Pentagon bill - The Senate’s top Democrat is urging both parties to reject proposals that could tank annual defense policy legislation, days after the Republican-led House passed its own version loaded with far-right amendments targeting abortion and diversity programs. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer made the plea as the Senate gears up to consider its version of the National Defense Authorization Act this week, which he and other leaders aim to pass before Congress leaves for its August recess. The push from Schumer comes after Speaker Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans narrowly passed a defense bill last week that rolls back Pentagon abortion access policies, surgeries and hormone treatments for transgender troops, and diversity programs in the military. Nearly all Democrats opposed the legislation. Schumer swiped at House Republicans on Tuesday, calling the upper chamber’s $886 billion bill “a prime example” of bipartisanship on national security issues, in contrast to the House measure that cleared largely along party lines. The New York Democrat also called for both parties to reject hardline measures included in the House bill. “I certainly hope we do not see the kind of controversy that severely hindered the NDAA process over in the House,” Schumer warned on the Senate floor. “Both sides should defeat potentially toxic amendments and refrain from delaying the NDAA’s passage.” “So far, we have thankfully avoided all of that,” Schumer said. He added that Democrats and Republicans are nearing a deal to add a batch of over 50 amendments to kick off the process. The bill faces its first hurdle with a procedural vote Tuesday evening that requires a 60-vote majority. Once the legislation clears that bar, Senate leaders push through a package of bipartisan, uncontroversial amendments while Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell attempt to strike a deal for votes on more contentious proposals. Once the full Senate approves the measure, House and Senate Armed Services leaders will then try to reconcile their competing bills into a compromise that can pass both chambers and President Joe Biden can sign. The most conservative proposals tacked onto the House-passed bill are almost certain to be rejected in the Democratic-led Senate, where 60 votes are needed to advance legislation. The quest for bipartisan consensus usually means proposals from the far right and left are non-starters. Still, the Senate has been roiled by its own fight over the Pentagon’s policies to allow leave and reimburse travel costs for troops who cross state lines to seek abortions. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) is holding up hundreds of senior military promotions in a bid to reverse the policy. There is no end in sight to the monthslong impasse. Republicans are likely to push for a vote to undo the policy as part of the defense bill, even if it can’t garner the 60 votes that would be needed to pass. Tuberville has also signaled that a vote on the policy isn’t enough to convince him to drop his blockade. Other tough votes could also be on deck, including limiting Pentagon diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, increasing or cutting the Pentagon budget, slashing Ukraine aid, or at least boosting oversight for the assistance. McConnell said Republicans would focus on building up Biden’s “woefully inadequate defense budget.” “It’s our chance to keep the Biden administration focused on critical missions like rebuilding America’s defense industrial base instead of the woke partisan agenda of political appointees,” McConnell said of the bill. Republicans, led by Senate Armed Services ranking member Roger Wicker of Mississippi, are already touting several conservative policy wins they included in the upper chamber’s defense bill. The committee-approved legislation prohibits the creation of positions or filling vacancies related to diversity, equity and inclusion until the Government Accountability Office reviews the Pentagon’s workforce for those programs. It also caps salaries for officials who handle diversity and inclusion issues. Wicker also added a provision that requires all Pentagon personnel actions to be based on individual merit and performance. GOP senators have also included measures to require the Pentagon to dispose of unused border wall materials that it is now storing and produce a plan to counter drug and human trafficking on the U.S.-Mexico border. As the Senate reconvened Tuesday afternoon, Schumer touted a soon-to-be-adopted manager’s package of 51 amendments, with Democrats and Republicans each getting 21 proposals included along with another nine bipartisan amendments. Amendments in the catch-all measure include provisions to ramp up oversight of artificial intelligence in national security, compete with China and implement the AUKUS submarine technology sharing pact with the U.K. and Australia. Senators are also poised to tackle the declassification of federal records related to UFOs. Schumer said the package includes his amendment to require the National Archives to establish a collection of records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena spanning government agencies that can be declassified for public use. And while the bill doesn’t affect Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s abortion policy, it requires a briefing from the Pentagon on the issue, which senators are set to receive on Wednesday.

Top Republican blocks Biden’s AUKUS submarine pact in bid for more defense spending - Republicans pushing to boost the Pentagon budget topline have new leverage: the Biden administration’s commitment to send nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. Senate Armed Services Republicans are jamming up a key piece of President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda — the U.S. security pact with Australia and the U.K. to share nuclear submarine technology, known as AUKUS.The move to block the agreement, led by Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), is the latest bid to force the White House to boost military spending beyond levels set by the debt-limit deal.Wicker, despite the fact that he supports AUKUS, blocked a plan to fast-track Congress’s authorization to sell Australia three Virginia-class attack subs, a major pillar of the multinational agreement announced this year. He’s arguing that for U.S. submarine manufacturers to be able to boost production enough to supply both the U.S. Navy and Australia, the industry needs more investment from the federal government.“It makes sense to be sure we have enough submarines for our own security needs before we endorse that pillar of the [AUKUS] agreement,” Wicker, the Senate Armed Services Committee’s ranking member, said in a brief interview. “The president needs to submit a supplemental request to give us an adequate number of submarines.”Wicker could not immediately say how much spending is required, but he said Australia’s planned $3 billion investment in the U.S. submarine industrial base would not be enough.“We need a concrete plan that includes not only the authorization and money for an adequate number of attack submarines, but a plan for the industrial base to actually get there,” he said. “We want to help [Biden] implement a good, meaningful AUKUS approach.”Wicker and Senate Appropriations Committee Vice Chair Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) aim to send Biden a letter in the coming days laying out their argument for added spending.Collins is a vocal player in the Republican push for more defense spending and her state hosts maintenance facilities for nuclear subs. In an interview, she said she supports AUKUS, but also worries about shortfalls in the submarine fleet and industrial base.Defense hawks and budget hawks are at odds over whether to go above or below the fiscal 2024 funding levels set by Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during the debt limit deal. Wicker, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and other Senate Republicans want to boost the Pentagon budget through supplemental funding.But because McCarthy and fiscal hard-liners have rejected the idea of a supplemental, adding defense spending beyond the topline — for the submarine industrial base or anything else — will be no easy feat.

Senate Rejects Congressional War Powers Over NATO's Article 5 - The Senate on Wednesday overwhelmingly voted down an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that would declare NATO’s Article 5, which outlines mutual defense commitments, does not override congressional war powers. The amendment, introduced by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), states: “It is the sense of Congress that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty does not supersede the constitutional requirement that Congress declare war before the United States engages in war.”The amendment failed in a vote of 16-83 and received no support from Democrats. “It should have been an easy vote to affirm the Constitution, to vote against affirming the Constitution actually places doubt in the Constitution. But it was defeated,” Paul wrote on Twitter after the vote.The Senate also approved an amendment introduced by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) that requires Senate approval for a president to leave NATO in a vote of65-28, with only Republicans opposing the measure.The Kaine amendment reads: “The President shall not suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty… except by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, provided that two-thirds of the Senators present concur, or pursuant to an Act of Congress.”Versions of the Kaine and Paul amendments were previously introduced as stand-alone bills. When Paul and several other Republicans introduced legislation to reaffirm congressional war powers over NATO commitments, he noted that while NATO members are required to assist each other in the event of an attack, military action is not mandated.“Furthermore, Article 11 of the NATO Treaty states that the provisions of the Treaty are to be carried out in accordance with each country’s respective constitutional processes,” Paul said in a statement last month.Once the Senate passes its version of the NDAA, it needs to negotiate the finalized version with the House. Both versions will allocate $886 billion for military spending, but a partisan battle is expected to ensue as Republicans added amendments to the House version relating to social issues in the military, including abortion, transgender surgeries, and diversity policies. The House passed its version of the NDAA last Friday in a narrow vote of 219-210.

Czech Parliament Ratifies Treaty Allowing US Troops Presence - On Wednesday, the Czech parliament ratified a treaty that paves the way for a US troop presence on Czech soil as the US is looking to further beef up its military posture in Europe.The Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) was approved by the lower house of the Czech parliament in a vote of 115-18 and now heads to the desk of President Petr Pavel, who is expected to sign the document.The Czech government reached an agreement on the DCA with the US back in May. The Czech Republic is the 25th NATO member to sign an agreement with Washington that allows a US military presence.The US is pursuing a DCA with NATO’s newest member, Finland, andSweden, which will formally join the alliance soon. The Czech DCA sets a legal framework for the presence of US troops, but any deployment would still need the approval of the Czech government and parliament. The commander of the Czech Republic’s armed forces, Gen. Karel Rehka,recently warned that Russia and NATO are currently “on course” for a direct conflict. “We view war between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance as the worst-case scenario, but it is not impossible,” Rehka said in May. “It is possible… [Russia] is currently on a course towards a conflict with the Alliance.”

Democrat, Republican Senators Agree NATO Expansion Into Asia Is 'Inevitable' - Senators Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) agreed on Sunday that NATO expansion into Asia was “inevitable” as the Western military alliance increasingly has its eyes on China.Both senators made the comments on NBC’s Meet the Press. When asked by host Chuck Todd if NATO expanding into Asia was inevitable, Sullivan replied, “I think it is, and I think it was a positive summit.”Sullivan was part of the Senate delegation that attended the NATO summit in Vilnius last week. The communiqué that was issued by the alliance mentioned China more than a dozen times, compared with just one mention in the previous year’s NATO summit communiqué.“It wasn’t just the mention of China several times – almost 20 times in my count – but Chuck, you probably saw the leaders who were there… the prime minister of Japan, prime minister of Australia, the president of Korea,” Sullivan said. He added that the Senate delegation met with the Asia Pacific leaders, calling it “a really strong signal with regard to NATO.”Duckworth was then interviewed by Todd and said she agreed with Sullivan about NATO expansion into Asia. “I agree with my friend and frankly, it already has started to do that with our successful AUKUS agreement between the UK, Australia and the United States,” she said.Building alliances in Asia is a major aspect of the Biden administration’s strategy against China. For their part, Beijing has repeatedly told NATO to stay out of the region and has warned that the US’s strategy of forming blocs in the region could lead to a “Ukraine-style crisis.”

Biden picks first woman to lead the Navy after reports of Pentagon snub -President Biden on Friday picked Adm. Lisa Franchetti to be the next chief of naval operations after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin passed over her when recommending for the role. The promotion of Franchetti, who has been vice chief of naval operations since last fall, will be the first time a woman has the spot of the Navy’s highest-ranking officer and she will be the first female member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Biden, in announcing his nomination, noted that Franchetti has already made history as the second woman ever to achieve the rank of four-star admiral in the United States Navy. She would replace current Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday, whose four-year term is over this fall. Austin in June reportedly recommended that Adm. Samuel Paparo become the next chief of naval operations despite Franchetti being considered the front-runner for the top position as the Navy’s No. 2 officer. Biden on Friday nominated Paparo for commander of Indo-Pacific Command. The president also nominated Vice Adm. James Kilby for vice chief of naval operations and Vice Adm. Stephen “Web” Koehler for commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet.

US Announces $1.3 Billion Weapons Package for Ukraine - The Biden administration announced on Wednesday a new $1.3 billion weapons package for Ukraine that includes air defense systems, kamikaze drones, missiles, and other equipment.The package is being provided to Ukraine through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the US to purchase arms for Ukraine. The Pentagon said the announcement represents the beginning of the contract period.According to the Pentagon, the full package includes:

Four National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions
152mm artillery rounds
Mine clearing equipment
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
Precision aerial munitions
Counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment
150 fuel trucks
115 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment
50 tactical vehicles to recover equipment
Port and harbor security equipment
Tactical secure communications systems
Support for training, maintenance, and sustainment activities

Weapons provided under the USAI could take months or years to be delivered. The primary way the US has been arming Ukraine is through the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows President Biden to send equipment directly from US military stockpiles.According to State Department numbers, the new package brings the total USAI committed to Ukraine in the 2023 fiscal year to $12.1 billion. In the 2022 fiscal year, the US announced $6.3 billion in USAI for Ukraine.Funds for Ukraine are still being pulled from the $113 billion that Congress has authorized to spend on the war so far. The White House is expected to ask Congress to approve more within the next few months.

U.S. says F-16s will arrive in Ukraine ‘towards the end of the year’ - -- The Biden administration expects American-made F-16 fighter jets will arrive in Ukraine near the end of this year, a top spokesperson said, signaling that U.S. officials are feeling a new sense of urgency to deliver the warplanes as quickly as possible.“Now look, the F-16s will get there probably towards the end of the year,” John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said on Fox News on Thursday. “But it’s not our assessment that the F-16s alone would be enough to turn the tide here.”National security adviser Jake Sullivan echoed Kirby’s comments on Friday, saying the U.S. is “moving rapidly” to get F-16s to Ukraine.“We are going to push as fast as possible,” Sullivan said during remarks at the Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colo.The Ukrainians have been pleading for modern fighter jets to help repel Russian invaders for more than a year. President Joe Biden in May lent U.S. support to an international effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, but the U.S. has yet to formally approve the training program, which is required under export restrictions.In the meantime, a coalition of 11 nations, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, has taken early steps to make the training program a reality. European officials said last week that they hope to begin the training in Denmark in August, and a training center will also be set up in Romania. The U.K., in the meantime, will soon start English language instruction for Ukrainian pilots.F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin plans to supervise pilot training through a subcontractor, Draken International, according to Ukrainian press reports.However, countries have been hesitant to commit to sending F-16s from their own fleets to the battlefield after training concludes. Norway has plans to send two trainer aircraft for Ukrainians to learn on, according to a Norwegian defense official, but that has not been announced publicly.

Ukraine Begins Firing US Cluster Bombs - Ukrainian officials told The Washington Post on Thursday that Ukrainian forces have started firing US-provided cluster munitions at Russian soldiers in southeastern Ukraine, which was later confirmed by the White House.Last year, the White House called the use of cluster bombs in Ukraine a “potential war crime,” but President Biden signed off on the delivery of the civilian-killing munitions earlier this month.Cluster bombs are so hazardous to civilians because they spread small submunitions, or bomblets, over large areas. Submunitions that don’t explode immediately on impact can kill or maim civilians for decades to come, as they have in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, where the US dropped hundreds of millions of bomblets during the Vietnam War.According to the Post, by sending the bombs to Ukraine, President Biden bypassed US law that prohibits the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions with a “dud rate” of more than 1%. The dud rate refers to the percentage of bomblets that don’t explode.The Pentagon has claimed that the munitions they are sending have a dud rate of 2.35%, but The New York Times reported the rate will likely be 14%. The US has given Ukraine dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICMs) in the form of 155mm artillery shells, which are packed with 72 bomblets.The Post report said that Biden bypassed the law by using a rare provision of the Foreign Assistance Act that allows the US to provide weapons regardless of export controls if the president determines doing so is a vital national security interest. But continuing to fuel a proxy war against the world’s largest nuclear-armed state is a huge risk to US national security.

Putin Says Russia Can Use Cluster Bombs in 'Tit-For-Tat' Response - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Sunday that Russia has a “sufficient” supply of cluster munitions to use if Ukraine employs the controversial weapons.The US has started shipping cluster bombs to Ukraine even though the weapons are notorious for killing and maiming civilians. US cluster munitions have already arrived in Ukraine.Human Rights Watch has said both sides have used cluster bombs in the war, although Putin claimed Russia hasn’t.“Russia has a sufficient reserve of various kinds of cluster munitions, various kinds. So far we have not done it, we have not used them, and we have not had such a need, despite a certain shortage in munitions at a certain point of time. But we didn’t do this,” he said. “But of course, if they are used against us, we reserve the right to tit-for-tat actions.”Putin also noted that the White House said last year that the use of cluster bombs in Ukraine would be a potential war crime. “As for cluster munitions, the US administration itself through its staff gave its opinion on these munitions a while ago, when the use of cluster munitions was called a crime by the US administration itself. So, I think, this is how it should be treated,” he said.

Marshall Islands Seeks More Compensation From US for Nuclear Tests - The Marshall Islands is seeking more compensation from the US for the health and environmental damages caused by US nuclear testing as part of negotiations to extend a deal that gives the US military access to the Pacific Island nation.Between 1946 and 1958, the US detonated 67 nuclear bombs on or above the Marshall Islands, including Castle Bravo, the largest-ever nuclear weapons test conducted by the US. The US agreed to give the Marshall Islands $150 million in the 1980s and insists the funds were a “final settlement” for the issue, but the amount fell well short of what is needed to clean up all of the radioactive debris.Marshall Islands Foreign Minister Jack Ading testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources last week and called for more compensation from the US to renew the agreement with his country, known as the Compact of Free Association (COFA).The US has COFAs with the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau. Renewing the agreements is key to the US strategy against China in the region because it not only gives the US military access to the Pacific Island nations but allows the US to deny other militaries access to the area.Joseph Yun, the US envoy to negotiate the COFAs, has said the US reached a deal with Micronesia and Palau, but the Marshall Islands is still holding out. The US has offered the Marshall Islands $2.3 billion in assistance over 20 years and a $700 million trust fund. But Ading said his country is seeking more compensation and detailed some of the horrors the Marshallese have faced due to US nuclear tests.Discussing the Castle Bravo test, which took place in 1954, Ading said US military officials “learned that a change in wind patterns threatened to bring fallout to inhabited atolls that had not been evacuated. They went ahead with the test anyway without warning the islanders, who were blanketed in radioactive fallout and had no idea what it was or that it was dangerous.”Rongelap Atoll was one of the islands covered in radioactive fallout, and Ading said that as a result, 70% of the atoll’s children under 10 developed thyroid tumors. Many women of several of the affected atolls later “gave birth to babies who resembled jellyfish and peeled grapes.”

North Korea Issues Nuclear Warning Over US Nuke-Armed Submarine in South Korea -North Korea on Thursday issued a warning over the US deployment of a nuclear-armed submarine to South Korea, saying the provocation could potentially justify Pyongyang using its nuclear weapons. The Ohio-Class USS Kentucky docked in the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday, marking the first time since 1981 that an American nuclear-armed submarine arrived in the country. It also marked the first time since the US withdrew its tactical nukes from South Korea in 1991 that US nuclear weapons were deployed to the Korean Peninsula.The provocation coincided with the first meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), which was established by the US and South Korea to increase cooperation related to US nuclear weapons.North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun-nam slammed the US and South Korean cooperation on nuclear weapons in a press statement released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency. Kang said US and South Korean officials held the NCG meeting “to discuss the plan for using nuclear weapons against the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea].”Discussing North Korea’s nuclear policy, Kang said, “I remind the US military of the fact that the ever-increasing visibility of the deployment of the strategic nuclear submarine and other strategic assets may fall under the conditions of the use of nuclear weapons specified in the DPRK law on the nuclear force policy.”He said that Pyongyang’s nuclear doctrine “allows the execution of necessary action procedures in case a nuclear attack is launched against it or it is judged that the use of nuclear weapons against it is imminent.”After US officials held the NCG meeting, they released a statement that said any nuclear attack from the North will “will result in the end of that regime.” South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on Wednesday boarded the nuclear-armed USS Kentucky and repeated the “end of the regime” threat.The US nuclear deployment in South Korea provoked more North Korean missile tests as the two sides continue tit-for-tat escalations. The Biden administration has shown no interest in easing tensions and has vowed to continue deploying strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula.

Iranian Oil Stolen by the US Stuck on a Tanker Off the Coast of Texas - US federal prosecutors are struggling to sell off a shipment of stolen Iranian oil being carried by a Greek tanker off the coast of Texas, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.The US Justice Department seized the Greek tanker Suez Rajan in Aprilunder the pretext of sanctions enforcement and forced the ship to head for Texas instead of China. The Suez Rajan is carrying 800,000 barrels of stolen oil and is currently off the coast of Galveston.According to the Journal, the US can’t sell the oil because the companies that would unload the oil are worried about Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf. “Companies with any exposure whatsoever in the Persian Gulf are literally afraid to do it,” a Houston-based energy executive involved in the matter told the paper.The executive said that several companies contacted about the oil declined to unload the cargo. After the US stole the Iranian oil shipment, Iran seized two tankers in the Persian Gulf, which was likely retaliation.Since then, the US has announced several measures to increase its military presence in the region to prevent more Iranian seizures in the Persian Gulf that it provoked in the first place.The US has a history of seizing tankers and stealing Iranian cargo. In 2021, the Biden administration sold off two million barrels of Iranian oil taken from a tanker that was seized off the coast of the UAE. During the Trump administration, the US seized ships carrying Iranian gas bound for Venezuela and discharged some of the cargo in New York.

USA Bill Could Bar Sale of Emergency Oil to China - China would be blocked from purchasing oil from the US’s emergency stockpiles under legislation slated for a Senate vote Thursday. The amendment to the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act comes amid a renewed focus on the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which stands at a 40-year-low following the Biden administration’s 180 million barrel drawdown last year to help tame oil prices in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The measure, sponsored by West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, needs 60-affirmative votes for adoption. The SPR amendment had been slated for a vote Wednesday afternoon, but was moved to Thursday. The legislation is similar to a bill that passed the House in January that would prohibit the sale of US oil from the reserve to any company under the control of the Chinese Communist Party and ban the export of any crude oil from the SPR to China. The Senate version also bars the sale of oil to Russia, North Korea and Iran, according to a Manchin spokeswoman. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, created in the aftermath of the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s, currently stands at 346.8 million barrels. The Biden administration has vowed to refill the reserve, though so far the pace has been a trickle. Republicans, who have criticized the release as a ploy to lower gas prices before the midterm election’s last November, have also raised flags about the administration’s use of the emergency stockpiles, alleging the Energy Department transferred 900,000 barrels of oil to Unipec America Inc., a subsidiary of Communist Party owned Sinopec Corp. and the recipient of billions of dollars of investment by BHR Partners, a private equity firm where Hunter Biden, the president’s son, was a founding board member. The White House has said the Energy Department is required by law to sell the SPR oil in a competitive auction to the highest bidder, regardless of whether the bidder is a foreign company. It has also said that the release of oil from the reserve last year was needed to address price spikes caused by the conflict in Ukraine and ensuing supply disruptions. The annual US defense policy bill is considered as must-pass because it authorizes pay increases as well as compensation for troops in harm’s way and is widely-supported by Republicans.

House Republicans investigate Ford motors deal with Chinese car company --Republican lawmakers are raising concern about a new partnership between Ford Motor Company and a Chinese company that makes car batteries, investigating possible links to forced labor in the Xinjiang region of China. The GOP chairmen of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and the House Ways and Means Committee sent a letter to Ford on Thursday demanding documents related to their partnership with Contemporary Amperex Technology, Co. Limited (CATL). Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) and Jason Smith (R-Mo.), the chairmen of the respective committees, said public financial disclosures and media reporting in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) suggest that CATL has taken steps to shield its connection to companies based in the Xinjiang region of China, where the U.S. has determined China is committing genocide against the minority, Uyghur-Muslim population. In 2021, President Biden signed into law the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which bans companies importing products from the Xinjiang region unless they can prove that products are not linked to forced labor. “We write jointly today to seek information about the partnership agreement, Ford’s knowledge of CATL’s apparent attempt to shield its connection to Xinjiang-based companies, and Ford’s commitment to advance U.S. battery production,” the chairmen wrote. The information requested includes:

A copy of the licensing agreement between Ford and CATL — including all appendices — in both English and Chinese
All documents and communications between Ford and CATL referring or relating to the licensing agreement in the original language, i.e. not in a translation
All documents and communications between Ford and the Biden Administration referring or relating to the Ford/CATL licensing agreement and/or achievable tax credits

The lawmakers also raise concern that the proposed agreement includes employing Chinese citizens at factories in the U.S., saying “a significant portion of these well-paying jobs” would not go to Americans.

House and Senate Set Up for Fight Over How Much Military Aid to Give Taiwan - - The House and Senate are set up for a fight over how much military aid to include for Taiwan in 2024 spending bills as each chamber’s appropriators granted a different amount, Defense News reported Thursday.The Senate Appropriations Committee on Thursday passed its 2024 State Department and foreign aid spending bill that includes $113 million in Foreign Military Financing grants for Taiwan. The House Appropriations Committee’s version of the bill includes $500 million in FMF grants for Taiwan.FMF is a State Department program that gives foreign governments money to buy US-made arms. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act included $2 billion in FMF for Taiwan, but congressional appropriators only approved the funds as loans that need to be paid back, as opposed to grants, over concerns that the State Department budget would need to be slashed in other areas.While the Republican-led House is looking to give Taiwan more military aid than the Senate, its State and foreign aid spending bill is $52.5 billion, lower than the Senate’s version, which is $61.8 billion. The two chambers will need to negotiate the final version, and it’s unclear how much military aid Taiwan will end up getting.The US is also looking to give Taiwan military aid through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which authorizes weapons shipments direct from Pentagon stockpiles, the primary way the US has been arming Ukraine. The 2023 NDAA included $1 billion in PDA funds for Taiwan. The Pentagon said in May that it was preparing a $500 million PDA arms package for Taiwan but has yet to send the arms.From China’s perspective, US military aid for Taiwan is extremely provocative. The US has sold weapons to Taiwan since severing diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 but has not financed the purchases or provided arms free of charge. When President Biden signed the 2023 NDAA into law that included military aid for Taiwan, China launched major military exercises around Taiwan in response.

Taiwan Says It Detected a Record 16 Chinese Warships Around Island - China sent a record number of warships around Taiwan in a single day last week, topping a previous high set when the Chinese military responded to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in August 2022, The South China Morning Post reported.The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said that it detected 16 Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ships operating around Taiwan on Friday, although it’s not clear how close they came to the island. After Pelosi’s visit, the PLA sent 14 vessels around the island for drills that simulated a blockade.In April, when Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with the current House speaker, Kevin McCarthy, China also conducted large-scale exercises around Taiwan and sent 12 PLA warships to the area.Major Chinese military exercises around Taiwan are typically done in response to actions the US takes with respect to Taiwan, and Washington has continued to boost ties with Taipei despite Beijing’s position. It’s not clear if there was a single event that sparked the PLA’s decision to send 16 warships around the island.Global Times, a Chinese state media outlet, mentioned that the PLA warship activity came as the House passed its version of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which includes provisions to boost military ties with Taiwan, and after NATO issued a communiqué at its summit in Vilnius that took aim at China. Taiwanese media said the record number of Chinese warships came after a few days of steady PLA activity around Taiwan.

US ambassador to China hacked in latest cyber operation: report the U.S. ambassador to China, in an attack tied to the recent hack that targeted federal agencies, including the State and Commerce departments, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of State for East Asia, was another target of the cyber espionage campaign, people familiar with the matter told the Journal. “For security reasons, we will not be sharing additional information on the nature and scope of this cybersecurity incident at this time,” a State Department spokesman told the Journal.The Hill has reached out to the State Department for comment. The news follows a Microsoft report released earlier this month that uncovered that Chinese hackers gained access to email accounts of 25 organizations, including federal agencies, in an attempt to collect intelligence from the U.S.The hackers, known as Storm-0558, are “focused on espionage” and gathering intelligence by gaining access to email systems, the tech giant said.

Kerry's visit to China ends with no major agreements - The United States and China ended three days of climate meetings with no concrete outcomes, but have agreed to continue talking ahead of pivotal global climate negotiations this fall. “We came to Beijing in order to unstick what has been stuck for almost a year, and that’s the in-person dialogue between the United States and China,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said during a press conference. “We had very frank conversations, but we came here to break new ground, which we think is important at this stage, and it is clear that we are going to need a little more work to be able to complete that task, which we still believe, both of us, is doable.” The announcement follows a packed schedule of meetings with senior Chinese officials, as the two sides tried to cool heightened tensions that have prevented in-person climate discussions between the United States and China for almost a year. “There are a lot of things that we very clearly agreed on after all this time,” Kerry said. “But there are also some issues that are going to have to be resolved that are going to take a little more time.” The two sides agreed to hold meetings in the coming weeks to discuss ways to scale up renewable energy, reduce coal use and address methane emissions ahead of COP 28, the global climate talks being held in November, Kerry said. “We’re not issuing a declaration together, because we’re not finished finding the pathway with clarity on both sides that will allow us to achieve what we need to achieve,” Kerry said. “But this is how you get business done. You begin somewhere.”

Biden’s complicated relationship with China poses a danger to us all - Thanks to House investigators, it has become increasingly clear: President Biden knew aboutand was likely involved in Hunter Biden’s dealings with companies tied to the Chinese Communist Party. And he almost certainly lied about it.That evidence is coming from credible IRS whistleblowers who have testified to that effect, as well as bank records, emails, audio tapes and eyewitnesses that confirm Biden’s complicity.It is also evident from the incessant kowtowing by the Biden White House to China. If our president has taken money from Chinese companies, officials in Beijing know all about it and undoubtedly relish the leverage that knowledge gives them over an unpopular U.S. president. That vulnerability must terrify Biden and is the only possible reason imaginable that this administration continues to prostrate itself before Chinese President Xi Jinping.One after another, senior White House officials have trotted over to Beijing, enduring humiliation at the hands of Xi’s despotic government; recently the White House confirmed that Biden himself is eager to join the queue. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and now climate envoy John Kerry have made the journey, with little to show for their efforts but a series of self-inflicted embarrassments.Imagine: The American secretary of State traveled to Beijing to beg the Chinese to reopen vital lines of communication between our two countries’ militaries and was rebuffed. Embarrassingly, Blinken was kept on tenterhooks, not certain he would even meet with Xi, who finally agreed to spend 30 minutes with him but afterward told a Chinese news outlet themeeting was a mere “courtesy.”Yellen started her trip by bowing several times to a bemused Chinese official, looking more like a bobblehead doll than a Treasury secretary. Her visit was also for naught. She told CBS’s “Face the Nation,” “It’s important to establish person-to-person relationships and to open ongoing channels of communication.” Having set that basement-level bar, she described her trip as “successful.”Just days before her trip, China imposed draconian curbs on exports of gallium and germanium compounds, vital chip-making ingredients, in effect warning Biden it can destroy his efforts to rejuvenate U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. Xi didn’t even dignify Yellen’s trip with a photo-op. Most recently, our climate czar Kerry ventured to China, hoping against hope that the world’s most aggressive builder of coal-fired power plants would repent and buy into Biden’s climate zealotry. No dice. After four days of meetings that produced zero headway, Kerry said the two sides agreed to “meet intensively” going forward.Here’s a radical thought: Wouldn’t an uncompromised White House make China come to us?After all, it is China whose economy is stumbling, whose record-high youth unemployment is destabilizing, whose demographics are disastrous for long-term growth, whose debts are through the roof, exports are collapsing and, most important, that is losing foreign companies in droves.

One year in, the Inflation Reduction Act is working — kind of It’s been nearly a year since Democratic lawmakers pushed the first new climate spending legislation in more than a decade over the congressional finish line. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, or IRA, includes $369 billion in clean energy tax credits and funding for climate and energy programs, money that is already trickling into the economy as federal agencies begin to distribute it. The Biden administration said the bill will help deliver on the president’s pledge to cut the United States’ emissions in half by 2030, and independent analyses estimated that it would help slash domestic emissions by 43 to 48 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. Now, researchers have made an updated prediction. The Rhodium Group, an independent analytics firm that tracks greenhouse gas emissions produced by the U.S. economy,published a report on Thursday that shows just how much climate progress the IRA will usher in — and where the legislation will fall flat. “Nearly one year after it passed, the IRA’s effects are coming into clearer focus,” a spokesperson for Rhodium Group said. The report, the ninth edition of Rhodium’s annual emissions assessment, found that the IRA and state-level climate bills that have been signed into law by governors across the country in recent years will drive emissions down between 29 and 42 percent in 2030, compared to 2005 levels. By 2035, greenhouse gas emissions will decrease between 32 and 51 percent. Prior to the IRA’s passage, the nation was on track to cut emissions by 26 to 41 percent by 2035, according to Rhodium’s estimate from 2022. Rhodium called the overall reductions “a meaningful departure from previous years’ expectations for the U.S. emissions trajectory.” Thanks to the IRA’s subsidies, solar and wind energy are already becoming a lot cheaper: solar by nearly 40 percent and wind by 55 percent. The legislation will also influence the speed with which electric vehicles replace gas-powered cars. In 2035, electric vehicles will comprise between one-third and two-thirds of all passenger car sales, the report said. That’s meaningful progress, but the emissions reductions aren’t steep enough to get the U.S. fully on track to meet its pledge to reduce emissions 50 to 52 percent by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, the 2015 international treaty on climate change that aims to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). That’s because federal policy levers are only one piece of the decarbonization puzzle. A number of other factors could influence the speed and extent to which renewable energy technologies replace oil, coal, and gas, including how the industrial sector behaves and whether states continue to pass ambitious climate policies. And because the IRA revolves around incentives for clean energy, rather than penalties for fossil fuel use, some of the factors impacting the speed with which the economy decarbonizes won’t be influenced by the federal legislation. For example, Rhodium projects that natural gas, which made up roughly 36 percent of the nation’s power mix in 2022, will comprise 6 to 29 percent of the power supply by 2035, depending on whether utilities take advantage of the incentives in the bill and what types of renewable energies are feasible in their markets. Natural gas, a cheap source of energy, surpassed coal as the nation’s leading source of electricity in 2016. Despite the incentives in the IRA, gas is still abundant, affordable, and here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Biden boosted climate action. But U.S. emissions goals still in doubt. --When Joe Biden was a presidential candidate in 2020, he pledged to ban oil and gas drilling on public land, pump federal money into clean energy, and achieve net-zero emissions by midcentury.Three years later, the country’s emissions trajectory remains highly uncertain.The United States is within reach of cutting its carbon pollution in half by 2035 — if it’s able to install a massive number of renewable energy projects. Or the nation could fall far short of its international climate promises and reduce its emissions by as little as 29 percent in 2030 — if fossil fuel prices remain low, economic growth surges and clean electricity installations stumble, according to a report released Thursdayby the Rhodium Group. Biden has committed to cutting emissions 50-52 percent of 2005 levels by 2030 under the Paris climate accord.“It’s not going to be easy to meet the Paris target, and it’s not going to be easy to meet whatever the next target is after that. But there’s a path here,” said Ben King, a Rhodium analyst who helped write the report.Rhodium’s report highlights the climate law’s potential, and its limitations. Most U.S. emissions reductions in the coming years are expected to come from power plants. Planet-warming pollution from the power sector could fall between 45 and 74 percent from current levels by 2035, Rhodium found. That’s owing in large part to passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains $369 billion in clean energy incentives and is designed to remove economic barriers for wind and solar facilities, King said.Yet the law did not address the permitting and interconnection challenges that hamper renewable energy projects, and it includes no requirements that utilities reduce emissions from fossil fuel power plants. Rhodium estimates the United States will need to install between 32 and 92 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity every year to achieve deep emissions reductions by 2035.

Biden, Manchin, GOP Lawmakers Defend Gas Pipeline Challenged by Environmental Group - A legal battle over the construction of a new natural gas pipeline in West Virginia has raised common ground between President Joe Biden’s administration, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), and a group of Republican lawmakers. The deal to increase the U.S. debt limit last month included a provision to approve the construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a natural gas project set to run between Virginia and West Virginia. An environmental group known as the Wilderness Society has challenged the pipeline’s construction, winning a July 11 order from the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals that halts the pipeline’s construction for now. The developers behind the Mountain Valley Pipeline project have since asked (pdf) the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the Fourth Circuit Court’s decision and allow the pipeline to go forward. On Tuesday, Mr. Manchin filed a “friend of the court” amicus curiae brief (pdf) backing the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s request. Mr. Manchin’s amicus brief was followed the next day by an amicus brief (pdf) brought by nine Republican lawmakers. In their brief, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Reps. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), John Joyce (R-Pa.), Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) and Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) all expressed their support for overturning the appeals court order and letting the pipeline project proceed. On Friday, the Biden administration also weighed in, lending its support for the pipeline project. Writing on the administration’s behalf, U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued (pdf) that the deal cut during the passage of the debt limit bill, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, had taken the power to stop the pipeline’s construction out of the jurisdiction of the lower courts. The relevant section of the debt limit bill states, “No court”—up to and including the Fourth Circuit—”shall have jurisdiction to review any action taken by [the relevant agencies] that grants … any … approval necessary for the construction and initial operation at full capacity of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.” Ms. Prelogar added that the Wilderness Society’s legal challenges “cannot succeed because Congress ratified the agency actions that they challenge and superseded any provision of law inconsistent with the issuance of those approvals.” NTD News reached out to the Wilderness Society for comment but the did not receive a response by the time this article was published.

Trump says he would end ‘Green New Deal atrocities’ on first day back in White House --Former President Trump says in a new campaign video that if he returns to the White House, he would end President Biden’s “Green New Deal atrocities” on his first day, despite the measure never being signed into law.Trump accused Biden of “waging war” on the U.S. auto industry with his “ridiculous Green New Deal crusade.”“If Biden’s assault is not stopped, American auto production will be totally dead,” the former president said in the video released Thursday. “That’s why I am going to terminate these Green New Deal atrocities on day one.”The Green New Deal, a congressional resolution that laid out a framework for tackling climate change, has never been passed by lawmakers. Biden has never officially endorsed it.Trump, however, uses the term more broadly to describe several Biden administration energy policies, including the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed limits on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions and the Department of Transportation’s increase in fuel economy standards.The former president also called on the United Auto Workers union, which has so far withheld its endorsement of Biden’s reelection bid, to instead endorse his campaign for the White House, which it has said it will not do.“I hope United Auto Workers is listening to this because I think you better endorse Trump, because I am going to grow your business, and they are destroying your business,” he said. “They are absolutely destroying your business.”The powerful union has historically backed Democrats and endorsed Biden in 2020. However, amid the administration’s push for electric vehicles (EVs), workers have expressed concernsthat automakers are using the shift to more climate-friendly vehicles to undercut wages.

House Republicans propose planting a trillion trees as they move away from climate change denial (AP) — As Speaker Kevin McCarthy visited a natural gas drilling site in northeast Ohio to promote House Republicans’ plan to sharply increase domestic production of energy from fossil fuels last month, the signs of rising global temperatures could not be ignored. Smoke from Canadian wildfires hung in the air.When the speaker was asked about climate change and forest fires, he was ready with a response: Plant a trillion trees.The idea — simple yet massively ambitious — revealed recent Republican thinking on how to address climate change. The party is no longer denying that global warming exists, yet is searching for a response to sweltering summers, weather disasters and rising sea levels that doesn’t involve abandoning their enthusiastic support for American-produced energy from burning oil, coal and gas.“We need to manage our forests better so our environment can be stronger,” McCarthy said, adding, “Let’s replace Russian natural gas with American natural gas and let’s not only have a cleaner world, let’s have a safer world.”The Biden administration has also boosted exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe after Russia, one of the continent’s largest suppliers of energy, invaded Ukraine. The Democratic president has also said that coal, oil and gas will be part of America’s energy supply for years to come.Scientists overwhelmingly agree that heat-trapping gases released from the combustion of fossil fuels are pushing up global temperatures, upending weather patterns around the globe and endangering animal species. But the solution long touted by Democrats and environmental advocates — government action to force emissions reductions — remains a non-starter with most Republicans.Enter the idea of planting a trillion trees. A 2019 study suggested that planting trees to suck up heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could be one of the most effective ways to fight climate change. Major conservation groups, and former President Donald Trump, who downplayed humanity’s role in climate change, embraced the idea. But the tree-planting push has drawn intense pushback from environmental scientists who call it a distraction from cutting emissions from fossil fuels. The authors of the original study have also clarified that planting trees does not eliminate “the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

Chamber-led coalition calls on White House to intervene in UPS strike -A U.S. Chamber of Commerce-led coalition sent a letter to President Biden on Thursday urging the administration to step in to help UPS and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters reach an agreement and avoid a looming strike.More than 250 organizations, including the Association of American Railroads and state and local chambers from 47 states, signed on to the letter expressing concern about what they call the “debilitating impact of a strike on American families and the economy.”“[T]he Administration has successfully utilized its formal and informal convening power in the past year to help parties reach agreements in both the railroad and West Coast port terminal contract negotiations,” the Chamber-led coalition wrote.“We urge you to lend similar help here and work with the parties to help reach an agreement by August 1.”Last month, the Teamsters overwhelmingly voted to authorize a strike if UPS and the union don’t reach a new five-year agreement before contracts expire July 31. The shipping company and the union are at odds over workers’ wages, benefits and compensation. Teamsters are also pushing to end a dual-wage system for delivery drivers and “forced overtime” on their days off.On July 1, the two parties reached a tentative deal on the dual-wage system, overtime and a holiday on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, although tensions persisted on economic elements of the negotiations.But negotiations collapsed a few days later, increasing the possibility that approximately 340,000 Teamsters members that work for UPS could strike. The strike could be one of the largest and costliest in U.S. history.UPS moves approximately $3.8 billion worth of goods per day, and the shipping company’s competitors have said they do not have the capacity to take on the additional 20 million packages per day delivered by UPS.Last Friday, UPS announced a “temporary plan” to train nonunion as the deadline looms. A Teamsters spokesperson called the plan “an insult.” The White House stepped in last fall to avert a nationwide railroad strike. Former Labor Secretary Marty Walsh led 20 hours of negotiations that ended in a deal, narrowly avoiding a strike that could have devastated the U.S. supply chain. Teamsters President Sean O’Brien told union members last weekend that he had been “very clear” in asking the White House not to intervene if UPS workers go on strike. “The White House shouldn’t be concerned with the Teamsters. They should be concerned with corporate America who keeps making billions upon billions of dollars off the sweat of our members,” O’Brien said Sunday. “We’re not going to allow anybody to implement a contract.”

IRS should stop wasting money on its own tax filing software --Some of the most frequently criticized provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act are related to funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). While the focus has mostly been on the impact of hiring 87,000 new IRS agents, the legislation also included $15 million for the agency to create its own direct tax filing system. The Fiscal Responsibility Act rescinded $1.39 billion for the IRS, which impacted hiring, but not the proposed new software program.The concept of giving the IRS the power to create and run its own tax filing system has been around since before the turn of the century. In 1995, the IRS signed an agreement with the National Technical Information Service to create Cyberfile and spent $17 million on the program before it was cancelled. As the Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted in its Aug. 26, 1996, report, Cyberfile “was poorly planned and managed.” Understanding that the federal government should not be in a business that was already being successfully provided by the private sector, Congress created the Free File program, which began operating in 2003.As former IRS Commissioner John Koskinen said in a Jan. 15, 2016, press release, “Free File software can walk you through the steps and help you get it right,” and “[t]he real winner in this partnership has been the nation’s taxpayers.” The 2023 program is available for taxpayers who earned $73,000 or less in tax year (TY) 2022. While nearly 70 percent of taxpayers during the TY 2021 filing season were qualified to use Free File, only 2 percent used it. That does not mean that the government should solve this “problem” by wasting tens of millions of dollars creating its own software program, it means that if there was improved outreach, more qualified taxpayers would likely use the free services. And that was the conclusion reached in the Electronic Tax Administration Advisory Committee’s Annual Report to Congress. Recommendation #18 states, “ETAAC recommends the IRS and Congress evaluate making improvements in communication, marketing, and accessibility of existing free tax filing programs before investing in the development and implementation of an IRS Direct eFile platform.” Nothing has occurred since the failure of the Cyberfile program to give taxpayers any confidence that IRS information technology systems are capable of handling tax preparation better or more securely that the Free File program. In 2022, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration issued a series of reports identifying critical cybersecurity vulnerabilities that placed taxpayer data at risk. A Feb. 15, 2023, GAO report noted that aging IT systems at the IRS were slowing “federal payments and services, and make taxpayer information vulnerable to cyberattacks.” These systems were first placed on the GAO’s High-Risk List in 1997. One of the reasons given for the IRS study is to supposedly help the agency crack down on so-called tax cheats, but even the smallest taxpayer would be caught up in the new system. And having the IRS pre-fill a tax return based on a prior year’s filing would not include vital information about the taxpayer, like a marriage, death, divorce, new child, home purchase or other life instances that would affect the taxpayer’s tax liability. It would also undermine one of the most critical components of the U.S. tax system. As the ETAAC noted, it is “imperative that the taxpayer’s journey remains one that encourages voluntary compliance, instills trust, provides high levels of service, and inspires confidence in our nation’s tax system.” The results of the $15 million “study” of a direct filing system were released on May 16, 2023, when it was learned that the IRS had not studied whether it should create its own tax preparation program, it went ahead and created such a program. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said, “The announcement of a pilot program raises serious questions about how long the Biden Administration’s decision to move forward on such a program has been in the works, whether the agency had any intention of following Congress’ direction that this study be conducted in an independent and impartial way, and whether the IRS is acting outside the law in establishing a program that Congress has not authorized.”

US flying blind amid warnings of new COVID-19 surge -- By multiple early indications, the United States has entered yet another surge of the COVID-19 pandemic, with wastewater levels, emergency room visits for COVID-19 and test positivity rates all on the rise across much of the country. Between June 24 and July 12, the Biobot wastewater tracker showed a 46 percent increase nationally, concentrated in the South and on the coasts. According to one infectious disease modeler, these wastewater levels translate to roughly 280,000 Americans presently being infected with COVID-19 each day and rising. The latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that there were 10.7 percent more emergency department visits for COVID-19 nationally last week compared to the previous week, with Alaska, Florida and Hawaii reporting the highest rates of growth. CDC data also show that test positivity rates nationally were up by 0.7 percent last week, with Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas and Washington logging rates above 7 percent. If these data continue along current trends, this will be the first surge in the US since the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Biden administration ended their COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) declarations in early May. These premature and unscientific decisions prompted numerous world governments to stop virtually all surveillance of the pandemic. In the US, the CDC abruptly ended all COVID-19 case reporting, while the Biden administration disbanded the White House COVID Response Team and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky resigned from her post. As a result of the ending of COVID-19 case reporting, it is impossible to correlate early warning signs like wastewater data and emergency room admissions with national or local statistics on the number of COVID-19 cases. These simply do not exist, because the means to track them have been systematically dismantled. In response to this total abrogation of public health, every corporate media outlet in the world largely stopped covering the pandemic altogether, a sinister form of silent propaganda meant to provide cover for the ongoing crimes of the capitalist ruling elites. On Monday, New York Times columnist David Leonhardt broke this silence with a dishonest and evidently mistimed editorial that cherry-picked a single data point in just four countries to falsely proclaim that “the pandemic really is over.” Leonhardt is the Times’ pandemic minimizer-in-chief. Through his widely read newsletter The Morning, which was launched in May 2020 to serve as a daily pandemic update, he has repeatedly declared the pandemic over prematurely, discouraged masking and other mitigation measures, downplayed the severity of COVID-19 in children and immunocompromised people, erased the experience of millions suffering from Long COVID, and sought to elevate individualism as the guiding principle of public health policy. Leonhardt’s pragmatic, shortsighted and unscientific views epitomize and guide those of the Times’ largely affluent middle-class subscribers, and have helped craft and justify every criminal pandemic policy of the Biden administration over the past two-and-a-half years. Earlier in the pandemic, Biden himself stated that he was one of Leonhardt’s readers.

RFK Jr. says COVID was 'ethnically targeted' to spare Jews - Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dished out wild COVID-19 conspiracy theories this week during a press event at an Upper East Side restaurant, claiming the bug was a genetically engineered bioweapon that may have been “ethnically targeted” to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.Kennedy floated the idea during a question-and-answer portion of raucous booze and fart-filled dinner at Tony’s Di Napoli on East 63d Street.“COVID-19. There is an argument that it is ethnically targeted. COVID-19 attacks certain races disproportionately,” Kennedy said. “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.”“We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not but there are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact,” Kennedy hedged. In between bites of linguini and clam sauce, Kennedy, 69, warned of more dire biological weapons in the pipeline with a “50% infection fatality rate” that would make COVID-19 “look like a walk in the park.”“We do know that the Chinese are spending hundreds of millions of dollars developing ethnic bioweapons and we are developing ethnic bioweapons,” he claimed. “They’re collecting Russian DNA. They’re collecting Chinese DNA so we can target people by race.” There has been a growing consensus among US intelligence agencies that COVID-19 was man-made and escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China — but there is no evidence it was designed to spare certain religious groups or ethnicities, and Kennedy offered no studies to support his claims.Kennedy’s remark echoes well-worn anti-Semitic literature blaming Jews for the emergence and spread of coronavirus which began circulating online shortly after the pandemic broke out, according to The Center for the Study of Contemporary European Jewry at the University of Tel Aviv’s 2021 Antisemitism Worldwide Report.A 2020 Oxford University study found nearly 1 in 5 British people believed Jews created the coronavirus pandemic for financial gain.“No no no no no,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi Professor of medicine and infectious disease at the University of California, San Francisco, and a longtime critic of pandemic-related school closures. “I don’t see any evidence that there was any design or bioterrorism that anyone tried to design something to knock off certain groups.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Denies Antisemitism, Claims Censorship at Contentious Hearing —Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has promoted a number of conspiracy theories in the course of his long-shot campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, on Thursday told lawmakers he was the victim of censorship by social media and members of his party while defending himself against charges of antisemitism.

RFK Jr.’s Heated Exchanges With Congress Members Over ‘Racist And Antisemitic Comments’ -Robert F. Kennedy Jr. denied that he was racist or anti-Semitic during heated exchanges with Congress members Thursday, as Democrats pressed him on recent comments he made about Covid-19 targeting specific ethnic groups.RFK Jr. was pressed by House members Thursday over antisemitic and racist comments.Kennedy Jr. was testifying during a House hearing over online censorship when Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) brought up comments made by Kennedy Jr. last week during a dinner party in Manhattan—where he said Chinese and Ashkenazi Jewish people were less susceptible to Covid-19 while Caucasian and Black people were targets of the disease.Kennedy Jr. said the comments—recorded in a video published by the New York Post—were about a study funded by the National Institutes of Health and conducted by “Cleveland Clinic scientists,” which Wasserman Schultz said was not cited by him in the video published by the Post.Kennedy and Wasserman Schultz spoke over each other as Kennedy pointed and said, “You’re slandering me; this is dishonest.”Wasserman Schultz further pressed Kennedy Jr. over comments he made last year comparing Covid-19 public health policies to tactics used by Nazi Germany against Jewish people, asking if Kennedy Jr. rejects the comparison, to which Kennedy Jr. replied, “Congressman, what you are saying is a lie.”Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) played a video showing the comments Kennedy Jr. made about Covid-19 targeting Jewish people and asked if he, Goldman, should be concerned about his genetics as an Ashkenazi Jewish person who contracted Covid in 2020—an inquiry Kennedy Jr. responded to by saying, “Not at all. And that statement that you saw there is a truncated version of a larger statement where I was describing a study.”Kennedy Jr. further defended himself saying he has never been opposed to vaccination and that every statement made about him during the hearing was “inaccurate.”Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told Kennedy that his comments bring “shame on a storied name that I revere,” referring to his father, Robert F. Kennedy, who served as the 64th U.S. attorney general, represented New York in the U.S. Senate and ran as a transformative liberal Democratic presidential candidate before he was shot in the kitchen of the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles, where he had just delivered a victory speech after winning the California and Wisconsin primaries, in June 1968. He lingered for a day, then died of his injuries on June 5, leaving behind his pregnant wife, Ethel, and ten children. Kennedy Jr. said he was not allowed to respond to the questions made about his controversial comments, adding, “This is typical of the accusations against me at this hearing. They are baseless. Every single one.”

Three key moments from RFK Jr. testimony to Congress – POLITICO - Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testified before Congress on Thursday in a divisive hearing on federal government “censorship” of Americans’ free speech on social media, sparking tense exchanges between Democrats and Republicans over his remarks on vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic. The hearing of the committee investigating the politicization of the federal government, which also touched on social media companies’ handling of the Hunter Biden laptop story and ongoing government efforts to work with social media companies to take down disinformation and misinformation, largely saw Republicans defend Kennedy and decry Democrats’ protests over his presence before the committee as “censorship.” Democrats, in turn, argued that Republicans were “co-signing” Kennedy’s views on vaccines and medical science by providing Kennedy a “megaphone.” Here are the three key moments from Kennedy’s testimony.

Trump's classified documents case set for first pretrial conference hearing before Judge Cannon (AP) — A Florida judge who issued a court ruling last year that critics said was unduly favorable to Donald Trump is set to preside Tuesday over the first pretrial conference in his landmark criminal case concerning the mishandling of classified documents.Prosecutors and defense lawyers are scheduled to appear before U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon to discuss the rules and procedures that will govern how classified evidence is used in the case. It’s a routine subject for any prosecution that concerns classified information, but it’s notable because it will be Cannon’s first time hearing arguments in the case since the former president’s indictment last month.At issue during Tuesday’s arguments is a 1980 law known as the Classified Information Procedures Act. That statute governs how classified information is handled by the parties in a criminal prosecution. It’s meant to balance a defendant’s right to access evidence that prosecutors intend to use in a case against the government’s interest in safeguarding sensitive and secret information.Ahead of the pretrial conference, special counsel Jack Smith’s team asked Cannon on Monday to enter a protective order that would, in part, restrict the ability of defense lawyers to share with Trump and his codefendant and aide, Walt Nauta, classified information in the case. In seeking the order, prosecutors wrote that defense lawyers have told them “that they intend to object to certain provisions of the proposed protective order, but did not specify any such provisions.”Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty to a 38-count indictment that accuses them of conspiring to hide classified documents from Justice Department investigators that were taken from the White House to Mar-a-Lago at the end of Trump’s time in office in January 2021.Neither Trump nor Nauta is expected to attend Tuesday’s hearing.Another unresolved issue that could come up Tuesday is the trial date. Prosecutors have proposed that the trial begin Dec. 11, while lawyers for Trump, who is pursuing the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, have suggested that it be postponed until after the election.Cannon also presided over a lawsuit that the Trump team filed last year over the August 2022 FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Cannon drew criticism and second-guessing from legal experts for granting Trump’s request for a special master to conduct an independent review of the classified documents removed by the FBI from Mar-a-Lago.

Trump classified documents trial date set for May 2024 Judge Aileen Cannon has set a May trial date for former President Trump in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case. Although Cannon rejected Trump’s legal team’s request to indefinitely delay the matter, she largely agreed with his arguments that the complexities of the case required setting a trial well after prosecutors requested trial date of December of this year. “The Court rejects Defendants’ request to withhold setting of a schedule now,” Cannon writes. “Nevertheless, the Government’s proposed schedule is atypically accelerated and inconsistent with ensuring a fair trial.” Trump’s trial is set for May 20, but the matter is likely to get delayed further as Trump’s team has made clear they expect to file various motions in the case. Those motions are likely to bump back the trial date, a move that could push the trial closer to the presidential election — a factor that could prompt additional requests to delay the trial. Cannon alluded to that in her order, noting that practice “will require considerable time for Court review, independent of the ultimate merits of any such motions.” In the order, Cannon gives considerable weight to arguments from Trump’s team that they will need significant time to review all the discovery in the case — something the Justice Department dismissed while noting several attorneys on the case delayed applying for the security clearances necessary to review such evidence. “By conservative estimates, the amount of discovery in this case is voluminous and likely to increase in the normal course as trial approaches. And, while the Government has taken steps to organize and filter the extensive discovery, no one disagrees that Defendants need adequate time to review and evaluate it on their own accord,” Cannon wrote. Trump is facing charges on 37 counts in the case, including for violations of the Espionage Act as well as obstruction of justice.

Michigan Republicans charged in 'false elector' scheme to overturn Trump loss | (Reuters) - Michigan's attorney general on Tuesday announced felony charges against 16 Republicans for participating in an alleged "false elector" scheme that aimed to overturn then-President Donald Trump's 2020 election loss in the battleground state. While more than 1,000 people have been charged with crimes related to the violent Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol -- the day Congress met to certify the election result -- the Michigan felonies mark the first time anyone has been charged for trying to overturn Trump's defeat via the political system. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, a Democrat, has been investigating the group for allegedly signing documents showing they were legitimate Electoral College delegates. Their aim was to get Congress to accept phony certificates for Trump, even though Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by 154,000 votes. Nessel charged the 16 Republicans with a series of felonies, including forgery, conspiracy to commit forgery, and conspiracy to commit election forgery. The charges carry possible penalties ranging from five to 14 years in prison.

Donald Trump says he received target letter in Jan. 6 investigation (AP) — Former President Donald Trump said Tuesday he has received a letter informing him that he is a target of the Justice Department’s investigation into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, an indication he could soon be charged by U.S. prosecutors.New federal charges, on top of existing state and federal counts in New York and Florida and a separate election-interference investigation nearing conclusion in Georgia, would add to the list of legal problems for Trump as he pursues the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.Trump disclosed the existence of a target letter in a post on his Truth Social platform, saying he received it Sunday night and he anticipates being indicted. Such a letter often precedes an indictment and is used to advise individuals under investigation that prosecutors have gathered evidence linking them to a crime. Trump himself received one soon before being charged last month in a separate investigation into the illegal retention of classified documents.A spokesman for special counsel Jack Smith, whose office is leading the investigation, declined to comment.Legal experts have said potential charges could include conspiracy to defraud the United States and obstruction of an official proceeding, in this case Congress’ certification of President Joe Biden’s electoral victory.Smith’s team has cast a broad net in its investigation into attempts by Trump and his allies to block the transfer of power to Biden in the days leading up to the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, when Trump loyalists stormed the building in a bid to disrupt the certification of state electoral votes in Congress. More than 1,000 people accused of participating in the riot have been charged.

Trump says he is a target in US 2020 election probe (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he had received a letter from Special Counsel Jack Smith stating that he is a target of a grand jury investigation into efforts to overturn his 2020 presidential election defeat. A letter would represent the clearest sign to date that Trump, the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, may face federal criminal charges around his efforts to remain in power after losing the election to Joe Biden. Officials have testified that during his final months in office, Trump pressured them with false claims of widespread voter fraud. His supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol in a Jan. 6, 2021, bid to stop Congress from certifying Biden's win. Smith "sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation," Trump wrote on his Truth Social media site. His attorneys could not be reached for comment. A spokesperson for Smith's office declined to comment. It was one of a series of developments in the various criminal investigations into efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn his election defeat. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel on Tuesday announced criminal charges against 16 Trump supporters who allegedly submitted a phony slate of electors in an effort to overturn his 2020 defeat in that state. A prosecutor in Georgia is investigating a similar effort in that state.

Michael Cohen settles lawsuit against Trump Organization over unpaid legal bills - — Michael Cohen reached a settlement with the Trump Organization over unpaid legal bills he accrued during investigations into the former president, scuttling a trial over the matter that was slated to start Monday in New York state court. Cohen, Donald Trump’s former lawyer and fixer, filed the lawsuit in 2019, claiming that his former employer owed him millions of dollars in unpaid legal and court fees. Cohen alleged that the Trump Organization stopped paying his legal bills after he publicly agreed to cooperate in a federal investigation into Trump. Cohen said his unpaid legal fees exceeded $1.9 million. A spokesperson for the court confirmed the existence of the settlement and said the trial had been adjourned. He said he couldn’t provide details of the settlement. A lawyer for Cohen, Lauren Handelsman, said, “The matter has been resolved in a manner satisfactory to all parties.” A lawyer for the Trump Organization didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump has since sued Cohen, alleging Cohen violated attorney-client confidentiality agreements through Cohen’s book, media appearances and podcast discussions. The former president is seeking $500 million in damages. Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 to federal tax evasion and campaign finance violations, admitting in Manhattan federal court that, at Trump’s direction, Cohen paid hush money to a porn star, Stormy Daniels, during the 2016 presidential campaign to silence her claims of having had an affair with Trump. Cohen is now a key witness in the Manhattan district attorney’s criminal case against the former president, which centers on the same conduct concerning the payment to Daniels and Trump’s reimbursement of that money to Cohen. That case is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024.

Inside Kevin McCarthy’s secret promise to expunge Trump’s record - -- After House Speaker Kevin McCarthy suggested on national television last month that Donald Trump may not be the GOP’s best presidential nominee in 2024, the former president was furious — and wanted the California Republican to rectify the slight immediately. “He needs to endorse me — today!” Trump fumed to his staff on his way to a campaign event in New Hampshire, according to people familiar with what happened. McCarthy, after all, had indicated to Trump’s team that he would do so eventually. Why not clean up the mess and announce his support now? But the House GOP leader — who has felt compelled to stay neutral during the primary so as to not box in his own members — wasn’t ready to do that. To calm Trump, McCarthy made him a promise, according to a source close to Trump and familiar with the conversation: The House would vote to expunge the two impeachments against the former president. And — as McCarthy would communicate through aides later that same day — they would do so before August recess. That vow — made reflexively to save his own skin — may have bought McCarthy some time, staving off a public war with the man who almost single-handedly rehabilitated his entire career and ensured he won the gavel in January. But it has also put McCarthy in a bind — and Trump world plans to hold him to his promise. Several moderate House Republicans are loath to revisit Trump’s impeachments — especially the charges stemming from the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. (In fact, though only 10 of their GOP colleagues voted with Democrats to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 attack, several more wanted to but were too worried about threats to their offices and families to take the plunge.) But should McCarthy follow through, those members won’t have a choice. Given the speaker’s tenuous position with Trump allies in the House and the threat of his ouster looming over every move, McCarthy has no real option but to bow to the former president’s whims — even if it means putting vulnerable frontliners in a precarious political position.

Trump's energy industry donors defect to his primary rivals - Energy industry executives who backed former President Donald Trump are now shelling out cash to his competition, according to the latest campaign finance reports. Oil and gas magnate Harold Hamm donated to Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Pipeline mogul Kelcy Warren and Midland Energy Inc. CEO Syed Javaid Anwar contributed to DeSantis, too. Billionaire energy executive Jeffery Hildebrand is backing North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s campaign. Coal executive Joe Craft and his wife, Kelly — who served as ambassador to the United Nations under Trump — have donated to DeSantis, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie. Meanwhile, none of those wealthy energy donors has cut Trump big checks for his 2024 campaign, according to campaign finance reports due Saturday. “The simple explanation is that Trump has issues,” said Bill Miller, a longtime Texas lobbyist. The former president was indicted this year in cases surrounding the alleged hush money payment to a porn star and the handling of classified documents. Trump is also the subject of another investigation in Georgia centered on allegations that he sought to interfere with the 2020 election outcome. “It’s kind of like a car that’s not quite in good shape and it’s got to go on a road trip. There are gonna be problems,” Miller said. “As a consequence, donors are spreading their wealth.”

Turning Point Action's student activists were torn between Trump and DeSantis last year. Not anymore (AP) — When student activists assembled in Florida last year for Turning Point Action’s annual summit, many were torn, wrestling with whetherformer President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the Republican Party’s best hope for 2024.One year later, there is no more doubt. Attendees at this year’s meeting booed at even the suggestion of a contested GOP primary. Trump, they overwhelmingly said, is their pick.“Trump, for sure. I don’t think anyone else really has a chance,” said Sky Sanchez, 21, a student from Durham, North Carolina, who was volunteering at the conference with the Tea Party Patriots.Soren Nielsen, 18, who lives near Ann Arbor, Michigan, said he had been seriously considering DeSantis earlier this year, worried that Trump had lost momentum, particularly after a weaker-than-expected Republican showing in last year’s midterm elections.But those views changed as he watched Trump reenergize his campaign and saw DeSantis falter.“I started to realize his campaign did not launch as successfully as I thought it would,” Nielsen said. “And he doesn’t have the stamina, like Trump does, to win a general election.”While the conference provides only a snapshot of a small slice of the electorate, the views expressed in interviews here over the weekend reflect the broader contours of the GOP contest six months before voting is to begin. While DeSantis was once seen as a serious threat to Trump’s hold on the party — and remains his strongest challenger — he has so far failed to catch fire. His campaign over the weekend confirmed it had laid off a handful of staffers amid concerns over runaway spending, while polling shows Trump ahead by 20 to 30 points, or more, even after a pair of criminal indictments that only seemed to bolster his standing.

‘This Is a Really Big Deal’: How College Towns Are Decimating the GOP - — Spring elections in Wisconsin are typically low turnout affairs, but in April, with the nation watching the state’s bitterly contested Supreme Court race, voters turned out in record-breaking numbers.No place was more energized to vote than Dane County, the state’s second-most populous county after Milwaukee. It’s long been a progressive stronghold thanks to the double influence of Madison, the state capital, and the University of Wisconsin, but this was something else. Turnout in Dane was higher than anywhere else in the state. And the Democratic margin of victory that delivered control of the nonpartisan court to liberals was even more lopsided than usual — and bigger than in any of the state’s other 71 counties.The margin was so big that it changed the state’s electoral formula. Under the state’s traditional political math, Milwaukee and Dane — Wisconsin’s two Democratic strongholds — are counterbalanced by the populous Republican suburbs surrounding Milwaukee. The rest of the state typically delivers the decisive margin in statewide races. The Supreme Court results blew up that model. Dane County alone is now so dominant that it overwhelms the Milwaukee suburbs (which have begun trending leftward anyway). In effect, Dane has become a Republican-killing Death Star.

Hunter Biden’s attorney files ethics complaint against Marjorie Taylor Greene for showing sexual images Hunter Biden’s lawyer filed an ethics complaint against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) Friday, requesting that an ethics watchdog “immediately” initiate a review of Greene’s conduct after she showed sexually explicit photos of Biden at a congressional hearing this week.In a letter to the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE), Biden attorney Abbe David Lowell slammed Greene’s actions as “abhorrent behavior that blatantly violates House Ethics rules and standards of official conduct.”“This week, your colleague has lowered herself, and by extension the entire House of Representatives, to a new level of abhorrent behavior that blatantly violates House Ethics rules and standards of official conduct. If the OCE takes its responsibilities seriously, it will promptly and decisively condemn and discipline Ms. Greene for her latest actions,” Lowell wrote.“Now more than ever, the House has a duty to make loud and clear that it does not endorse, condone, or agree with her outrageous, undignified conduct and brazen violations of the standards of official conduct that do not reflect creditably on the House of Representatives,” he added.The OCE is a non-partisan, independent entity previously established by the House that reviews allegations of misconduct involving lawmakers, officers and House staffers and, if warranted, refers matters to the Ethics Committee.Greene and the OCE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.The episode in question took place Wednesday during a House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing that featured testimony from two IRS whistleblowers who allege that prosecutors slow-walked the investigation into Hunter Biden. Republicans throughout this Congress have argued that federal law enforcement agencies are politicized against the GOP.During her time to question the witnesses, Greene held up posters that showed graphic sexual photos from the laptop hard drive that allegedly belonged to Hunter Biden. The faces of other individuals involved in the sex acts were censored with black boxes, but Biden’s face was visible in the photos — which Lowell pointed out in his letter.“Before we begin, I would like to let the committee and everyone watching at home that parental discretion is advised,” Greene said before her first question.The presentation sparked criticism from Democrats, with Rep. Jamie Raskin (Md.), the top Democrat on the panel, asking Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) “should we be displaying this.”Greene claimed that Biden improperly utilized his company to write off payments made to prostitutes, but one of the whistleblowers — IRS special agent Joseph Ziegler — would not confirm. He did, however, say deductions were made that were believed to be for escorts, and noted that a payment that was said to be for a golf membership was for a “sex club.”

JPMorgan Chase Files a Notice of Appeal in Jeffrey Epstein Victim Case It “Settled” for $290 Million - By Pam and Russ Martens ~ Unless you have been living off the grid for the past month, chances are you have seen a barrage of headlinesblaring that the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, agreed to settle a class action lawsuit for $290 million that was filed by sexual assault victims of Jeffrey Epstein, some when they were as young as 14 years old. The bank’s involvement stemmed from it providing the hard cash to Epstein from his accounts at the bank to pay off his victims and accomplices (in violation of money laundering rules) while he reciprocated by referring clients and profitable deals to the bank.It now turns out that the case is not actually “settled.” JPMorgan Chase and its 1,000-attorney law firm that is representing it in the matter, WilmerHale, have quietly filed a petition to appeal the decision rendered by the District Court Judge, Jed Rakoff, to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. The bank and its lawyers don’t like the fact that Judge Rakoff took the claims of the one plaintiff, Jane Doe 1, and certified them into a class action lawsuit on behalf of a large group of Epstein victims. The bank’s petition to appeal calls this decision by Judge Rakoff “rife with error.”But, very cunningly, if Rakoff grants final approval to the terms of the settlement fashioned by the Machiavellian legal brains at JPMorgan and WilmerHale, then JPMorgan Chase will just overlook the District Court’s “rife with error” decision and go along with the settlement. The petition to appeal states:“While JPMC agrees to a settlement class, the litigation class certified below violates Rule 23. JPMC will withdraw the Petition if the district court approves the proposed settlement, but this Petition should be granted if this case proceeds to trial….” One might be forgiven for thinking that the biggest bank in the U.S., armed with one of the biggest law firms, has put a gun to the head of a sitting federal judge to approve their settlement. Another Machiavellian aspect of this legal maneuver is that JPMorgan Chase and WilmerHale wanted this petition to appeal to be held under seal and in abeyance until the court granted final approval to the settlement. But the Fairness Hearing that must be held before any final settlement is granted by the Judge is not scheduled until November 9, 2023. That would mean that the Appeals Court would be holding this appeal in abeyance for more than three months. The Second Circuit said it would only allow the petition to appeal to be held in abeyance for 45 days. That 45 days, however, could pose a problem for Epstein’s victims. They have just 30 days from receiving a notice about the terms of the settlement to opt out. That notice was supposed to go out within 7 days of Judge Rakoff granting preliminary approval to the settlement on June 26. If victims don’t opt out, the settlement mandates that they will forever be bound by its terms and that Machiavellian release, even if they can provethat they didn’t receive the notice advising of the deadline for opting out. But that is far from the only Machiavellian aspect of the settlement terms. Epstein’s victims have to file a release of all of their claims before they learn if they are to get an award. There is no minimum or maximum amount they can get, so they could release all their claims and end up with no monetary award, according to the terms of the settlement. Also, there is a secret side agreement buried in the settlement. The victims will be bound by the terms of a Paragraph 10 of a “Confidential Term Sheet,” which was crafted during mediation negotiations, but we could find no such document in the court records. We contacted the three key attorneys for the Epstein victims, seeking this document, as well as the entire Management Committee of WilmerHale, consisting of 18 attorneys, and no one was forthcoming with an answer as to how it is legal to have a secret side agreement in a class action involving potentially more than 100 victims of Epstein – many of whom have been waiting for decades for the justice system in the United States to stop cutting deals with Epstein and his accomplices and enablers.

JPMorgan Listed a “Lolita’s Closet” on the New York Stock Exchange for Jeffrey Epstein’s Money Man, Les Wexner By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: - In August 2007, Slate writer Emily Yoffe exploded a powder keg of parental anger when she shared her experience shopping with her 11-year-old daughter for back-to-school clothing in a store called Limited Too. The store, part of a large retail chain, marketed itself as an apparel haven for Tweens – girls ages 7 to 14. What Yoffe found inside the store was deeply disturbing: “a line of padded, underwire push-up bras for girls with nothing of their own to pad or push up…scanty panties…pairs with rhinestone hearts or printed with cheeky sayings such as ‘Buy It Now! Tell Dad Later!’ ” Limited Too is no longer in business but we did a check at the Internet Archives’ Wayback Machine to get a first-hand look at what Limited Too was peddling on its website in those early years. We found really sick stuff — like a survey of young girl customers that inquired if they were good at giving “massages.” (See screen shot above.) Sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, who had multiple ties to this store chain, was indicted in 2019 for sex trafficking and luring underage girls to his home for “massages,” which quickly became sexual assaults. One of Epstein’s victims, Virginia Roberts Giuffre, alleged in a lawsuit that Epstein’s (now convicted) accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, saw Giuffre reading a book about massage therapy at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach when Giuffre was working there as a spa attendant in 2000. Giuffre was under age at the time. Maxwell recruited Giuffre, on the pretext that she would be trained as a massage therapist, then Maxwell turned the position into what effectively became Giuffre serving as a sex slave to Epstein and his pals. In a BBC interview in 2022, Giuffre said she was “passed around like a platter of fruit” for sex with Epstein’s powerful friends. We also found an inordinate amount of sexualized underwear for children at Limited Too’s website, including one black pair of children’s underwear that said “I Love Sleep Overs.” (In what alternate universe from hell should a child have comments about sleepovers imprinted on sexualized black underwear? We also found pervy surveys at Limited Too that pried deeply into girls’ personal lives. (How is that legal in the United States? Or is it one more example of the no-law zone drawn around everyone and everything tied to Jeffrey Epstein and his pervy pals in government, Wall Street and Big Tech?)The title of Yoffe’s article about Limited Too was “Lolita’s Closet,” ironically providing a Freudian nexus to what would be revealed years later: Epstein’s private Boeing 727 jet which was dubbed the “Lolita Express,” a reference to its use to transport underage girls around the globe for sexual assault by himself and his wealthy friends. Limited Too’s sick stuff is one more link in getting to the real truth in the relationship between retailing billionaire Leslie Wexner, Jeffrey Epstein and the Wall Street mega bank, JPMorgan Chase. The bulk of Jeffrey Epstein’s wealth came from Wexner, the founder of The Limited retail chain as well as Limited Too. Wexner served as Chairman and CEO of a retailing conglomerate which, at various times, included a stable of other female apparel and beauty chains such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Victoria’s Secret, Lane Bryant, Bath & Body Works and others. Epstein functioned as a financial advisor to Wexner and held a power of attorney for Wexner’s financial interests from approximately 1986 to at least 2008. The Boeing 727 came from The Limited to Epstein. Epstein’s Upper East Side mansion in Manhattan came from Wexner. According to Epstein’s victims who have come forward, both the 727 and the Manhattan mansion were used to facilitate sexual assaults on underage girls. Prosecutors found a safe full of photos of naked girls, hundreds of which appeared to be underage, when the Manhattan mansion was raided by the FBI in 2019. According to court filings, Epstein also posed for years as a recruiter for Victoria’s Secret models, telling models that he could get them work at the company. Multiple women have said that when they showed up for the modeling interview with Epstein, he sexually assaulted them. Limited Too had underage models and photo shoots and that would seem to be a matter long overdue for prosecutors to investigate — particularly given its inquiry about underage girls giving massages. In addition to having an inordinate amount of power over Wexner’s finances connected to his retailing empire and his charities, Epstein also became a business partner of Wexner’s in Wexner’s multi-million-dollar home/business development project known as the New Albany Company in New Albany, Ohio. And, here is where you need to pay close attention: the largest federally-insured bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, had members of its Board of Directors who were designated as “independent” but were co-business partners with Epstein and Wexner in the New Albany Company project as the JPMorgan Board looked the other way at Epstein’s account activity at the bank. (See our report: Lawsuit Bombshell: Sex Trafficker Jeffrey Epstein Was “a Business Partner” with Members of JPMorgan’s Board of Directors.) JPMorgan Chase was Epstein’s primary banker for 15 years – from 1998 to at least 2013 – long after he was known as a sexual assaulter of children and after he had to register as a sex offender. At the same time, JPMorgan was regularly involved in stock dealings for Wexner, credit facilities for his retail businesses and debt offerings. In fact, the SEC filing for the spinoff of Limited Too (a/k/a Too, Inc.) from The Limited in 1999, to trade as a separate company on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “TOO,” states that “In deciding to pursue the spin-off, The Limited considered several things, including the financial advice of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc….” JPMorgan Chase now has three lawsuits against it connected to Epstein playing out in federal court in Manhattan. All three lawsuits charge that JPMorgan Chase functioned as a cash conduit that facilitated Epstein’s sex trafficking. Discovery materials in the two lawsuits filed late last year show that the bank paid cold, hard cash to Epstein, totaling millions of dollars and sometimes reaching $40,000 to $80,000 a month. The lawsuits credibly allege that Epstein used that cash to pay off his victims and his recruiters.

JPMorgan Chase Has Bled $230.6 Billion in Deposits Since Q1 2022, With Declines in 5 of the Last 6 Quarters - By Pam and Russ Martens: The data in the chart above comes directly from what the biggest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, reported on its 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the quarter ending March 31, 2023. Despite all those mainstream media headlines and news stories about the biggest banks in the U.S. being the deposit beneficiaries of the banking panic earlier this year, the cold, hard facts on the ground are the following: at the end of the first quarter of this year, JPMorgan Chase had seen deposit outflows in four out of the past five quarters. Mainstream media conveniently forgot to mention that.The only quarter in which JPMorgan Chase saw an inflow of deposits was the first quarter of this year, when three banks blew up: Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. That increase was a mere pittance compared to the huge outflows of deposits it had already suffered in 2022.Now we are getting an even clearer picture of the downward trend in deposits at JPMorgan Chase thanks to the 8-K filing that the bank made with the SEC on July 14. Had it not been for that sweetheart deal that the FDIC cooked up with JPMorgan Chase in the second quarter of this year, allowing it to buy the good stuff it wanted from the failed First Republic Bank, while regulators ate the bulk of the bad stuff, JPMorgan Chase would have had another decline in deposits in the second quarter.According to the 8-K filing, First Republic added $68.351 billion to JPMorgan’s deposits for the period ending June 30, 2023. Without those deposits, JPMorgan Chase’s deposits would have stood at $2.33 trillion as of June 30, representing a quarter-over-quarter decline in deposits of $46.64 billion. That would have brought the outflow of deposits since the end of the first quarter of 2022 to a whopping $230.6 billion, and showing that the bank lost deposits in five of the last six quarters.The bank’s so-called fortress balance sheet is starting to look like there are termites gnawing at the timbers. (See also: JPMorgan Chase Transferred $347 Billion in Debt Securities Over the Last 3 Years to Inflate Its Capital Using a Controversial Maneuver.)JPMorgan Chase getting the greenlight from federal regulators to purchase the failed First Republic Bank was a demonstration of regulatory capture at its worst. Despite JPMorgan Chase having admitted to five felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice since 2014; despite it having an organized crime style rap sheet; and despite it being currently scandalized around the globe for functioning as the cash conduit for Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking of school-age girls for more than a decade, this is the sweetheart deal the bank got from the FDIC to take over First Republic: the FDIC would eat 80 percent of any losses on single-family residential mortgages for 7 years and 80 percent of any losses on commercial loans, including commercial real estate, for five years. The FDIC also provided JPMorgan Chase with a $50 billion, five-year fixed-rate loan at an undisclosed interest rate.

Goldman Sachs’ Workers Have Screamed for Help in Lawsuits, Pitch Decks and the OpEd Page of the New York Times - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 19, 2023 ~ For more than two decades, we have been reading about former employees of Goldman Sachs who have fled jobs there over a toxic, soul-crushing work culture. The pace of these stories has been picking up steam, rather than declining. Shareholders of Goldman Sachs should be asking themselves, is this good for the future of the company over the long haul and the price of its stock.Here’s a small sampling of some of the complaints from 2004 to the present:

Fed to hold open meeting on Basel III endgame proposal The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an open meeting next Thursday to discuss aforthcoming proposal related to the final implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework.The meeting will be held at 1 p.m. at the Martin Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington and streamed live on the Fed's website, according to a notice published by the Fed. A copy of the proposed rule — which is set to call for enhanced risk-capital requirements for all banks with $100 billion or more of total assets — will be published on the Fed's website roughly 20 minutes before the meeting, according to the notice.The public meeting could provide a window into the internal debate over the capital rules being considered, some of which have been outlined in public remarks from individual board members. Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman has made the case that higher capital requirements are not necessary. Meanwhile, Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr — the architect behind the proposal — has said that other board members are entitled to their opinions and indicated that he will not aggressively pursue unanimity on the issue. The proposal needs only a simple majority of the six-member board to pass.The new proposal will bring the U.S. into compliance with the so-called Basel III endgame. Barr outlined the changes that will be called for in the proposal earlier this month. They will include a more standardized approach to calculating credit, trading and operational risk, doing away with the ability for banks to craft their own models.

CFPB's Chopra to work with European counterpart on digital regulations -The head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will work with his counterpart in Europe to identify emerging consumer threats in artificial intelligence, buy now/pay later anddigital payments. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will have regular, informal conversations with Didier Reynders, the European Commission's commissioner for justice and consumer protection, about the impact of digitalization on financial services, the two agencies announced Monday.The joint initiative will focus on how new technologies and the financial products that they enable affect pricing, competition and customer privacy. The talks will be used to inform regulations and other policies implemented by the CFPB and European Commission. "These developments, if left unchecked, could increase consumers' exposure to fraud and manipulation, limit their product options over time, threaten their control over their own data, and force them to accept more expensive personalized pricing for the same products and services compared to other consumers," a joint statement from the agencies reads. "Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic are responding to these issues, but we must do more to compete with the pace of evolving markets and consumer needs." The joint announcement noted a concern around "Big Tech" and the outsize influence technology firms could have on the financial decisions consumers make. It also notes that new technologies could play a substantial role in shaping the provision of credit to individuals and households.

Regions Financial says possible capital hike would be manageable -Regions Financial says that it is planning for an increase in regulatory capital requirements and would be able to manage new regulations for risk-weighted assets, but it also said that raising the capital threshold is unnecessary.David Turner, chief financial officer of the $156 billion-asset bank, told analysts Friday during the company's second-quarter earnings presentation that Regions was expecting effective minimum capital standards to rise, and is preparing for a 6% risk-weighted asset requirement for banks over $100 billion of assets."Maybe there's some tailoring," Turner said, but based on a 6% threshold, Regions would need to raise an "incremental" $5 billion of debt. The potential capital requirement would create an "all-in cost" for Regions of around $35 million or a "bottom-line hit" of 60 to 70 basis points, he said."It's not something that is pretty easy to overcome," Turner told analysts. "We don't think it's necessary, but we don't get to make the rules. We just have to adapt and overcome."The potential changes Turner was referencing could be part of a Federal Reserve proposal expected next week related to the final implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework, also known as the Basel III endgame. The Fed has scheduled an open meeting to discuss it Thursday.A series of bank failures that began earlier this year with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March has prompted regulatory discussion led by the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.Policymakers and banking industry officials have debated back and forth about whether and by how much existing rules should be toughened to better insulate regional banks in particularfrom financial or economic shocks.Key issues of the debate have circled around raising certain capital requirements to include banks with assets of $100 billion or more and whether additional regulation would increase the cost of capital at traditional banks and tilt market activity toward less-regulated nonbank lenders.

Senator Elizabeth Warren Slams Treasury Secretary Yellen and Bank Regulator Hsu for “Courting Disaster” on Bank Mergers -- Senator Elizabeth Warren is the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy. She is also the most knowledgeable member of Congress when it comes to the mega banks on Wall Street and the most willing to hold them accountable. (See related articles below.)Yesterday, Warren’s Subcommittee held a hearing on “Bank Mergers and the Economic Impacts of Consolidation.” The urgency of this hearing was heightened by the fact that almost two years after President Joe Biden signed an Executive Order urging members of his administration to take a more aggressive investigation into the harmful impacts of consolidation and monopoly power before approving more mergers in a number of industries, including banking, bank regulators signed off on one of the most egregious mergers of this century. Senator Warren explained it this way:“When First Republic Bank collapsed in April, the bank was ultimately sold to the biggest bank in America, JP Morgan Chase. That sweetheart deal cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Fund $13 billion. Meanwhile, overnight, the country’s biggest bank got $200 billion bigger. And what happened to the regulators? The Acting Comptroller of the Currency, Michael Hsu, rubber stamped the deal in record time. When I asked Mr. Hsu at a hearing in May to explain how this merger was approved, he was unable to provide a clear answer.“But the overall picture gets worse. Instead of inattentive regulators who don’t use their tools to block increasing consolidation, leaders within the Biden Administration seem to be inviting more mergers. In a May 2023 statement before the House Financial Services Committee, Acting Comptroller Hsu reassured banks that the agency would be “open-minded” while considering merger proposals….“Treasury Secretary Yellen recently warned that the banking ‘turmoil’ from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic might lead to more mergers and that regulators would be – quote – ‘open to’ them. Then the New York Times also reported that Secretary Yellen privately told big banks that she would, and I quote, ‘welcome more mergers.’ ”At the hearing yesterday, Warren called this lax position by regulators to be “stunningly wrongheaded” and “courting disaster.”President Biden has only himself to blame for Yellen defying his Executive Order. He put an individual in place as Treasury Secretary – who also has enormous powers when it comes to Wall Street – when there was plenty of evidence in the public domain that the millions of dollars in speaking fees that Yellen had collected from the mega banks on Wall Street would make her a fatally compromised voice in his administration. As the astute Jesse Eisinger Tweeted at the time of the revelations about Yellen, “Deeply troubling two-fisted money grab from banks by Janet Yellen. This is corruption, but isn’t called that because it’s so quotidian.” Eisinger also noted: “Sure, Yellen might think she can make independent decisions once in office. But how arrogant is it to imagine that money corrupts everyone but you?” (See our report: Janet Yellen’s Cash Haul of $7 Million Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg; She Failed to Report Her Wall Street Speaking Fees from JPMorgan and Others in 2018.)The willingness of bank regulators to fast-track the sale of the collapsed First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase wasn’t just an affront to Biden’s Executive Order. It was a direct threat to the safety and soundness of the U.S. banking system, which is, in turn, a direct threat to the national security of the United States. JPMorgan Chase isn’t just the most unprosecuted criminal in the history of banking – admitting to five separate criminal felony counts since 2014 and getting non-prosecution agreements from the U.S. Department of Justice – it is, officially, the riskiest bank in the United States as measured by its own regulators.There were three witnesses at yesterday’s Subcommittee hearing: Morgan Harper, Director of Policy and Advocacy at the American Economic Liberties Project; Michael Faulkender, Dean’s Professor of Finance and Chief Economist at the University of Maryland and America First Policy Institute; and Alexa Philo, Senior Policy Analyst at the nonprofit watchdog, Americans for Financial Reform.Harper made the following key points:“The harms of systemic monopolization in America are vast: higher consumer prices, fewer small businesses, depressed levels of entrepreneurship and business dynamism, more fragile supply chains and shortages, markedly lower wages for workers (particularly lower-income workers), regional inequality, worse outcomes for patients as a result of hospital mergers and private equity roll-ups, reduced military preparedness resulting from extreme concentration in the defense industry, the destruction of a sustainable revenue model for local news because of Google and Facebook’s monopolization of digital advertising, and I could go on. The point is that monopoly power is one of the main impediments to broad-based social, economic, and racial justice in America.”

Swiss Government Plans to Lock Away Secrets on Credit Suisse Collapse for 50 Years - By Pam and Russ Martens: July 18, 2023 ~The “Deep State” is increasingly feeling like the “Deep Banking State.” Try to get any meaningful information to unravel the corrupt and dangerous interconnections between global banking behemoths today and some government or other entity has slapped a padlock on the information.The latest example is the Swiss Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry that is delving into the collapse in March of the second largest global bank in Switzerland – Credit Suisse. The Commission has announced that it plans to lock away the details of its findings for 50 years. (UBS, the largest global bank in Switzerland, bought the crumbling remains of Credit Suisse earlier this year.)Reuters reported that the Swiss Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry is also requiring that “All persons participating in the meetings and the questioning are subject to the duty of secrecy, not only the members of the commission, but also the interviewees themselves.”The news of the 50-year lockup of the reasons for a global bank’s rapid failure is making headlines, on the basis that it’s an affront to the public’s right to know. Which, of course, it is. But the U.S. public has been suffering equally egregious lockups of information concerning the global banks based here in the U.S. for decades.Let’s not forget what happened when the late Bloomberg reporter, Mark Pittman, filed a Freedom of Information Act Request (FOIA) for global bank bailout information from the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis of 2008. While the Fed released general details of emergency lending programs, it did not release the names of the global banks that were doing the bulk of the borrowing, or the sums borrowed by each institution.Pittman filed a FOIA with the Fed for the names of the banks, the amounts borrowed and the terms. Under the law, the Fed had to respond in 20 business days. The Fed stalled Pittman for six months, leading to the parent of Bloomberg News, Bloomberg LP, filing a lawsuit against the Fed in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan in November 2008. Bloomberg won that suit. The Fed then appealed to the Second Circuit Appellate Court seeking to continue to withhold the information.The Fed also lost at the Second Circuit. The Fed was too embarrassed to take the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, because President Obama’s acting Solicitor General, Neal Katyal, planned to file a brief contrary to the Fed’s position, so a group called The Clearing House Association LLC, consisting of some of the same global banks that were being bailed out by the Fed, filed their own appeal with the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court declined to hear the case in March of 2011, leaving the decision of the Second Circuit in place.

Deutsche Bank to pay $186 million Fed penalty over controls Deutsche Bank AG will pay a $186 million penalty after a Federal Reserve investigation found that it failed to put in place sufficient measures to prevent money laundering after earlier violations. As part of the settlement, the German lender also agreed to step up risk management and governance. The Fed said its findings related to "unsafe and unsound practices and violations" of previous agreements with the central bank related to the lender's prior relationship with the Estonian branch of Danske Bank. The rebuke is the latest dust-up for the German lender with U.S. regulators. Over the past several years, the firm has been the subject of other Fed orders on how the company manages risks. Deutsche Bank shares rose 1.6% on Wednesday in Frankfurt trading. They're still down 5% this year. In a statement, Deutsche Bank said that it had taken steps to improve controls and that the settlement relates to "our historic tardiness in adhering to older enforcement actions and agreements." The firm said that it was poised to exceed regulators' expectations going forward. More broadly, CEO Christian Sewing has been trying to turn the page on a series of scandals and regulatory run-ins that have plagued the bank in recent years. While Sewing has resolved several legacy issues, new problems keep cropping up that leave him little choice but to abandon cost-cutting targets and spend instead on remediation.

Momentum on deposit insurance dissipates on Senate banking panel — In a short hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee, lawmakers discussed potential reforms to the deposit insurance system, despite waning interest in the topic that once energized policymakers after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Leading lawmakers of both parties qualified the conversation by saying that the panel would consider what changes, "if any," should be made to the deposit insurance system in the wake of the failures of three large regional banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, which had an unusually high share of uninsured deposits. That's a shift from the early days of the regional bank turmoil, when discussions of deposit insurance reform were rampant in Congress. "The purpose of today's hearing is to understand whether our current federal deposit insurance framework continues to fulfill that promise," said Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. "Our panelists come from diverse backgrounds and present unique perspectives on what changes, if any, should be made." The panel's ranking member, Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who is making his own presidential bid in 2024, gave even more cautious remarks. "It's not an understatement to say that deposit insurance is a complex issue that deserves a thorough evaluation," he said. "And what legislative response may be necessary — if any — because when it comes to proposals for reform to the system, there are a number of tradeoffs we must consider. And frankly, even scrutinize."

BankThink: A flurry of new financial services regulations threatens the economy | American Banker - Predictions for the U.S. economy in 2023 were dire. The hangover from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine presented obstacles — from rapid inflation to slow supply chains — that could easily tip America's finances into a steep recession. On top of that, inflation hit eye-popping numbers and looked terrifyingly stubborn. Bank failures caused by basic risk-management mistakes added to the turbulence. Things felt grim. But the economy has remained relatively robust. Price inflation has materially slowed, supply chains have strengthened and the anticipated recession has not taken root. A recession could still happen, of course, but if it does it looks like it will be more minor than once thought, largely because of strong employment. Even as the Fed has raised interest rates, job growth and spending has remained strong. All good, then, right? Well, maybe not. Economic risk from new regulation is a real threat. Washington decision-makers, in their zeal to fix things, too often create problems despite their well-intentioned efforts. This is especially true when they misdiagnose problems. Take, for example, the Federal Reserve's effort to expand its bank regulatory requirements and to force banks to meaningfully increase the amount of capital they keep on hand. There's nothing wrong with occasionally reevaluating capital requirements as situations change, but its strategy right now is flawed. In theory, keeping capital buffers strong is what the Dodd-Frank Act's stress tests on banks were meant to do. By testing institutions annually or semi-annually under various economic downturn scenarios, the Fed should be able to guard against race-to-the-bottom capital regimes by pointing out how losses could materialize under economic duress. They also allow for a more formal conversation between regulators and banks regarding where risks might appear.

Lawmakers share bipartisan concerns on Fincen's beneficial ownership database | American Banker— A House of Representatives hearing on rules to force banks to determine who owns assets they hold presented an opportunity for legislators to air concerns they've voiced before. This time, the complaints were aimed at the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network's newly-appointed director, Andrea Gacki, who was named to lead the agency last week. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle reiterated concerns over Fincen's proposed rules during a hearing held by the House Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Tuesday. Both parties hope Gacki will heed their suggestions for easing law enforcement access to the beneficial ownership database and reducing compliance burdens for banks."I'm hopeful [Gacki's appointment] marks a turning point for the agency," said House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). "I look forward to working with incoming director Gacki to address our concerns and members of this subcommittee in coordination with administration."Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer, (R-Mo.) — chairman of the National Security Subcommittee — reiterated a number of concerns he has repeatedly voiced this year. He's particularly concerned that, as proposed, Fincen's beneficial ownership database access rule places the onus for data reporting on institutions rather than the agency itself. He wants to see a secure process through which financial institutions can access and verify customer information from the database on demand, and have the agency update such information regularly. If the agency can't correct these flaws, he says, it may need to push back its implementation deadlines. "Fincen and Treasury have transformed a simple filing system into a complex maze, leaving many scratching their heads," he said. "I don't see how Fincen can move forward with a January 1 effective date without a clear plan."Luetkemeyer co-authored a recent letter with McHenry raising similar concerns but said the agency had not adequately responded to their concerns as of the hearing. Some Democrats like Congresswoman Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) agreed on the need for Fincen to make revisions, stressing the importance of efficiently implementing the law while minimizing the burden on affected industries. She said that Fincen's current proposal places onerous rules on how law enforcement may access the database, which could lock them out of effectively utilizing the information. She says the utility of the registry is diminished if the authorities can't promptly act on sensitive information."I agree with you, Mr. Chairman, that today's hearing is an important discussion about certain flaws in Fincen beneficial ownership rulemaking that deviate from the intent of Congress… [like] proposals to greatly restrict access to the BOI database, which would render new rules practically useless," Beatty said. Another major issue was the so-called "escape hatch" lawmakers think Fincen may have created with Treasury's recent draft questionnaire. The form allowed companies to report their ownership as "unknown," potentially enabling anonymous firms to avoid the reporting system. Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate previously sent a joint letter in April criticizing the draft, charging that it undermines the law and contradicts the agency's responsibilities. The American Bankers Association sent a letter expressing similar concerns in March."The loopholes in the draft filing form [undermine] the effectiveness of the law," said Beatty.

SEC's Gensler warns AI risks financial stability Wall Street's top regulator says the proliferation of artificial intelligence means governments will probably have to overhaul regulations to maintain global financial stability.Regulators must grapple with challenges posed by the burgeoning technology, according to Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler. He also reiterated that the agency's staff was weighing whether new rules were needed. "AI may heighten financial fragility as it could promote herding with individual actors making similar decisions because they are getting the same signal from a base model or data aggregator," he said in remarks prepared for a speech on Monday before the National Press Club in Washington. "While current model risk management guidance — generally written prior to this new wave of data analytics — will need to be updated, it will not be sufficient."Gensler, who previously taught classes at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has frequently discussed the impact of AI on finance since taking the helm of the SEC in 2021. However, he said Monday that the issues have taken on a new importance with recent advances in the tools, which he called "the most transformative technology of our time."On a more micro level, companies need to be aware of how their use of AI may affect compliance with securities rules, he said. Whether it is used for financial fraud, juicing corporate returns or steering investors toward specific products, the SEC will be on the lookout, Gensler said. In particular, publicly traded companies should be wary of misleading investors through their corporate statements and disclosures about the risks and opportunities AI might bring, he said. He added that the SEC's investigators could benefit from using more AI in their surveillance, analysis and enforcement. "For the SEC, the challenge here is to promote competitive, efficient markets in the face of what could be dominant base layers at the center of the capital markets," Gensler said. "I believe we closely have to assess this so that we can continue to promote competition, transparency and fair access to markets."

SEC charges seventh firm for violating limited offering exemption - Fifth Third Securities has been added to the growing list of underwriters charged by the Securities and Exchange Commission for violating its limited offering exemption. For its role in issuing 79 offerings without obtaining the required disclosures, Fifth Third, without admitting or denying the findings, has agreed to settle the charges, cease and desist from future violations of the exemption, a censure, and has been ordered to pay $442,465.59 in disgorgement, $67,506.09 in prejudgment interest and a $200,000 civil money penalty. SEC Rule 15c2-12 includes an exemption for underwriters engaged in limited offerings, where they do not have to provide continuing disclosures for the sale of securities that remain in denominations of at least $100,000 and sold to no more than 35 persons who are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the prospective investment. The SEC is one of several regulators charged with the first phase of a joint rulemaking for the Financial Data Transparency Act. The SEC has charged a seventh firm for failing to satisfy the requirements of the limited offering exemption.Bloomberg News Many have compared the Commission's tight focus on the limited offering exemption to the Municipalities Continuing Disclosure Cooperation Initiative (MCDC), introduced in 2014 to address potentially widespread violations of federal securities laws. It provided a window for municipal issuers and underwriters to self-report potential violations and offered potential favorable settlement terms to those that self-reported. Lawyers familiar with the matter have already noted its effect on the market, with internal policies tightening, with some underwriters acquiring specific investor letters to comply with the exemption, in addition to others forgoing the exemption entirely. Fifth Third's violation occurred between March 2018 and Sept. 2022, when they sold securities to broker-dealers and certain investment advisors without a reasonable belief that they were satisfying the exemption.

Minnesota Bankers Association challenges FDIC's NSF rule — The Minnesota Bankers Association and Lake Central Bank filed a joint lawsuit Thursday against the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. for amending its disclosure regulations for nonsufficient funds fees on re-presented checks, arguing that the agency's inclusion of "unfair or deceptive acts or practices" criteria violated the law. "The FDIC did not have authority to amend existing bank disclosure regulations and did not have authority to issue a substantive UDAP rule," the association wrote in a release. "Even if the FDIC did have authority to take those steps, the lawsuit claims the agency failed to follow the mandatory rulemaking process."The FDIC issued a new rule on NSF fees last August, which included a provision holding that repeated NSF fees could constitute a UDAP violation under the Federal trade Commission Act of 1914. The provision, included in Title V of the statute, is not to be confused with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's similar Unfair, Deceptive or Abusive Acts or Practices provision under Dodd-Frank.According to their release, the MBA — which represents most of the banks in the state — alleges that FDIC violated the Administrative Procedure Act in its rulemaking process. The lawsuit, filed in the Federal District Court of Minnesota, seeks to address specific procedural matters related to the FDIC's determination that repeated NSF fees could constitute a UDAP violation. The FDIC has repeatedly warned banks it's willing to take disciplinary action if it sees banks repeatedly charging NSF fees for the same transaction. Last year, the FDIC released guidelines indicating those kinds of practices could break the law.

CFPB's Chopra: 'It's very profitable to have customers be late' -- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra sat down with American Banker last week for an interview about the bureau's forthcoming proposals to lower credit card late fees, implement open banking in the United States, and rein in nonbank activities in finance. Chopra also discussed a case before the Supreme Court challenging the bureau's funding mechanism and the reason the bureau has had so few enforcement actions lately. What follows is a lightly edited transcript of the interview:

CFPB's Chopra on late fees, Big Tech and a looming Supreme Court case - Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has racked up huge penalties against big banks and has his sights set on large technology companies. Despite the looming threat of a Supreme Court case that could result in the CFPB's funding being deemed unconstitutional, Chopra is optimistic about changes ahead that he thinks will provide more protection to consumers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau celebrates its 12th anniversary on Friday, prompting Chopra to discuss the agency's work including a controversial proposal to set credit card late fees at $8. In a wide-ranging interview with American Banker, Chopra discussed why banks are getting additional supervisory scrutiny for assessing multiple fees when consumers overdraw their bank accounts. He also discusses the bureau's plans for open banking that would help consumers more easily switch banks, and how the CFPB plans to create a more level playing field in the fast-changing world of real-time payments. Here are five of the most important insights from the interview, which you can read in full here:

The impossible dream of defunding the CFPB through the Supreme Court --The U.S. Supreme Court may decide to cut off funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under a novel legal theory that the consumer watchdog is "doubly insulated" from congressional oversight. The case gives Republicans the best shot yet of gutting the agency and tying its funding to appropriations.But regulatory experts say that a ruling against the CFPB would threaten the funding of other similarly structured agencies including the Federal Reserve Board, the Farm Credit System and other regulators that are funded through fees or assessments.Central to the case is whether the CFPB's funding through the Federal Reserve System — and not through congressional appropriations — runs afoul of the appropriations clause, which states that "no money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law."The specific lawsuit against the CFPB was filed in 2018 by two payday trade groups that suedthe bureau claiming it overstepped its authority in issuing a federal regulation over payday loans. The groups argued that the payday lending rule should be invalidated claiming the CFPB's funding is unconstitutional.The CFPB argued in its petition urging the high court to take the case that "no other court has ever held that Congress violated the appropriations clause by passing a statute authorizing spending." The payday trade groups had asked the court not to take the case. In recent weeks, roughly three dozen legal briefs have poured in from constitutional scholars, federal regulatory experts, attorneys general and lawmakers weighing in on the case, CFPB v. Community Financial Services Association of America. The high court took the case after a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit ruled last year that the CFPB's funding violates the Constitution's separation of powers. The high court will hear oral arguments in October.

Senate panel OKs bill limiting SBA's fintech small-business loan plan— The Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee voted 18-1 in favor of a bill aimed at curbing the Biden administration's plan to expand the role of financial technology startups in providing government-backed small-business loans.The legislation, from Small Business Committee Chairman Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., and ranking member Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, was passed as part of a broader small business package and comes in response to growing concerns among lawmakers regarding the Small Business Administration's ability to regulate nonbank lenders seeking access to the agency's flagship 7(a) loan program. Sen. Rand Paul, (R-Ky.), cast the sole opposing vote against the bill.At issue is an SBA rule that would eliminate a moratorium that has limited the number of nondepository institutions that qualify as small-business lending companies, or SBLCs. The rule would allow new for-profit SBLCs — including potentially fintechs — to offer 7(a) loans and would create a new category of nonprofit mission-based SBLCs that would focus on serving underserved markets and demographic groups. But lawmakers are increasingly interested in overseeing the SBA's lending program, particularly as it relates to the fintech intermediaries that want to disburse funds from the SBA's lending programs. Those fintechs, critics say, were part of large scale fraud that pervaded the Paycheck Protection Program during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns that the SBA isn't prepared to police those lenders. Critics of the Biden administration's SBA changes, including traditional banks, have raised concerns over potential risks associated with these modifications. They argue that an increase in riskier loans, as a result of the proposed changes, could place a heavy financial burden on the program.

Banks can rest easy on Durbin's credit card swipe fee bill — this time — Merchants' latest hope to overhaul rules governing the "swipe fees" they pay to banks isn't likely to slide through with Congress' current must-pass piece of legislation, but the legislation's proponents say there's plenty of opportunity down the road for it to wind up on President Joe Biden's desk. Banks have fiercely opposed the Credit Card Competition Act, which would require cards from banks with $100 billion or more of assets to offer merchants the choice of two unaffiliated card networks that aren't both Visa and Mastercard. While the bill's sponsors say it will lower fees and promote competition outside of the "Visa-Mastercard duopoly," advocates for the financial services industry say it's a giveaway to retailers and would increase costs for consumers. The bill, led by Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., has garnered more support on the Hill since it failed to gain traction last year. This time around, Durbin is joined by Sens. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, a junior member of the Senate Banking Committee; Peter Welch, D-Vermont; and Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas. Reps. Lance Gooden, R-Texas; Thomas Tiffany, R-Wis.; Jefferson Van Drew, R-N.J.; and Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif, are backing a House version. Part of the bill's newfound popularity on the Hill is growing scrutiny of the banking sector in the aftermath of high-profile bank failures earlier in the year, including Silicon Valley Bank, said Doug Kantor, general counsel for the National Association of Convenience Stores and a member of the Merchants Payments Coalition, which includes many retailers lobbying for the bill. "I think that's just reflective of a growing recognition that there are real problems with the way that credit card payments are happening now," Kantor said. "I think some of the banking difficulties earlier this year also remind people that trusting some of these banking institutions has not always worked well for us in the past. We need to sometimes take a look at what incentives they have or don't have, and how the system works."

House GOP Pushes Back on Radical ESG by BlackRock, Others --Marcellus Drilling News -As we point out in another story today about Olympus Energy selling its “responsible gas” via a deal with Tenaska, what the left means by ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) and what the shale industry means by ESG, are two different things. When companies like BlackRock talk about forcing the companies they invest in to toe the line with respect to ESG, it means forcing those companies to divest from fossil energy. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are pushing back hard against investor ESG nonsense because it threatens the retirement funds of this country’s massive middle class.

House GOP focuses on banks and their regulators as part of anti-ESG push --House Republicans critiqued the Federal Reserve's climate scenario analysis, as well as other efforts by Biden administration regulators aimed at helping banks and their clients understand climate risk. At the same time, other House Republican-led efforts targeted banks themselves, in some large banks' capacity as asset managers, and how they make ESG investing decisions. Both moves are part of a broader Republican anti-ESG blitz, which last month included hearings and oversight of proxy voting firms. At a hearing with witnesses that included senior staff from the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Republicans floated three bills that would require banking agencies to report various policymaking activities to Congress, and one that would strip the Fed's top banking regulator, the vice chairman for supervision position, currently held by Michael Barr. "Following the administration's posture on climate-related financial risk, regulators have begun inserting climate policies into bank regulation and supervision," said Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., chairman of the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy. "There is little transparency about regulators' climate efforts and what occurs in administration-led climate working groups or international global governance organizations." Those bills stand little hope of making it to President Joe Biden's desk, but are important messaging tools ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and could be a signal of what the party would hope to accomplish depending on the results of that election, and the rhetoric could inform policy on the state and local levels.

FedNow, the Fed's instant payments system, is live - The Federal Reserve launched its much-anticipated real-time payments system on Thursday.The FedNow Service will settle payments between banks and other financial institutions 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with transactions clearing in seconds. The system went live with 35 banks and credit unions set up to use it directly and 16 service providers capable of using it on behalf of banks. "The Federal Reserve built the FedNow Service to help make everyday payments over the coming years faster and more convenient," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement. "Over time, as more banks choose to use this new tool, the benefits to individuals and businesses will include enabling a person to immediately receive a paycheck, or a company to instantly access funds when an invoice is paid."The 51 counterparties represent most of the 57 institutions who participated in the Fed's pilot program for the system and were designated early adopters. Officials have long maintained that the system would rollout with a relatively small pool of users that would grow steadily over time. Transactions will be capped at $500,000 for the initial rollout period, but participating institutions will start out with a $100,000 limit, which they can choose to increase. Those figures could change as the system matures.The rollout of FedNow is the culmination of a process that began in 2013, when the Fed first announced its intention to create a real-time payment system. At the time, it noted that it expected the facility to launch in 2023 or 2024. Work on FedNow began in earnest in 2019.

What bankers need to know about FedNow - The launch of FedNow, the Federal Reserve's instant-settlement system, raises many questions for banks, card networks and fintechs. FedNow joins The Clearing House's RTP Network in supporting instant settlement in the U.S. In an email, David Watson, president and CEO of The Clearing House, said "The Clearing House which operates the RTP network, the instant payments system in the United States, welcomes FedNow to the real-time payments space. The launch draws more attention to how consumers and businesses are looking to send and receive money instantly between their accounts, which the RTP network has been enabling for millions of bank and credit union customers since 2017." Any bank that's considering joining this new payment rail will have to consider the costs of processing and of any technology investment needed to properly route transactions to — or from — this new platform. The use cases for banks include bringing more bill payments in house, speeding account funding and reducing back office complexity, according to Joshua Siegel, a partner at Capco. "It's really now a matter of banks prioritizing which uses should come first," Siegel said in an interview on Thursday. Other important factors include interoperability with The Clearing House's existing RTP rail, the impact on an issuer's credit and debit card accounts, and even customer confusion over whether FedNow is a form of digital dollar.

Crypto's big moment: Washington's surprising new interest - In a game-changing decision that could revolutionize regulatory efforts in the world of cryptocurrencies, a federal judge in Washington, Judge Analisa Torres, recently determined that Ripple Labs’ token, XRP, is not to be classified as a security when procured by retail investors. This remarkable resolution by the judge has prompted a seismic shift in the narrative surrounding cryptocurrencies and caught the attention of policymakers in Washington, introducing a new chapter in the dialog between cryptocurrencies and federal governance. The judgment revolves around the ongoing debate about the nature of cryptocurrencies, where the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is advocating for a classification of certain popular cryptocurrencies, Ripple’s XRP included, as securities. This designation would subject them to SEC scrutiny and potentially tag American crypto exchanges as unregistered securities brokers. Judge Torres, however, outlined a difference between sales to institutional investors and those to retail purchasers, stating that XRP would be considered a security when bought by institutional investors but not when purchased by individuals.Unmentioned in the initial version of the deal, the terminology of ‘crypto’ and ‘cryptocurrencies’ instigated discussions about the broader implications of this ruling.The anticipated Digital Asset Mining Energy (DAME) excise tax, proposing a 30% tax on firms employing computing resources to mine digital assets, was notably absent.The omission, driven by environmental concerns over fossil fuel consumption in mining, was seen as a victory for the industry, although ironically, it appeared as a triumph for fossil fuel proponents as well.The debt ceiling agreement featured a clause fast-tracking a natural gas pipeline project. Expected to distribute natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale gas fields to mid and south Atlantic regions of the U.S., this could indirectly benefit bitcoin miners who utilize excess natural gas for their operations.An increase in natural gas infrastructure could lead to enhanced production, resulting in increased surplus gas and thus more energy sources for miners. The favorable response from bitcoin to the agreement further corroborated this notion. As Washington’s gaze slowly shifts towards the crypto industry, the ruling becomes a pivotal point in the ever-evolving crypto narrative. The verdict drew applause from Ripple’s CEO, and even the SEC was not entirely critical, hailing the institutional sales aspect of the ruling.Following the verdict, Coinbase, a crypto exchange previously sued by the SEC, restarted XRP trading, indicating a shift in stance and signaling Washington’s burgeoning interest in the crypto market.The exclusion of a crypto mining tax permits the current administration to maintain a neutral stance on bitcoin, which seems to be a contentious topic.As Washington’s interest in cryptocurrency grows, keeping tabs on political discourse regarding crypto assets becomes increasingly crucial, offering a glimpse into the evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies in the wake of this ruling. With the effects of this judgment still unfurling, it is clear that this is a major moment for the crypto industry and Washington alike.

RFK Jr. Vows to Back Dollar With Bitcoin, Exempt BTC From Taxes -- U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. unveiled a plan to exempt bitcoin (BTC) from capital gains tax when it is converted into U.S. dollars and to begin to back the greenback with "real finite assets" such as gold, silver, platinum and bitcoin. "Backing dollars and U.S. debt obligations with hard assets could help restore strength back to the dollar, rein in inflation and usher in a new era of American financial stability, peace and prosperity,"said Kennedy. He would start the process, he said, "very, very small, perhaps 1% of issued T-bills" would be backed by hard currencies like gold, silver platinum or bitcoin. Speaking at a Heal-the-Divide PAC event Tuesday evening, he also echoed commitments he made at a conference in May defending the right to self-custody bitcoin, run blockchain nodes at home and promising industry-neutral energy regulation.The story was first reported by TheStreet."The benefits include facilitating innovation and spurring investment, ensuring citizen privacy, incentivizing ventures to grow their business and tech jobs in the United States rather than in Singapore, Switzerland, Germany and Portugal,” said Kennedy.The Internal Revenue Service treats bitcoin as property and investment rather than currency, which means it is subject to tax on capital gains. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also been cracking down on the industry. Crypto companies have been calling for more regulatory clarity for months, and are looking to see if a ruling against the SEC in its lawsuit with Ripple will lead to a change in approach.“It is a mistake for the U.S. government to hobble the industry and drive innovation elsewhere,” Kennedy wrote in a Twitter post in May. “Biden’s proposed 30% tax on cryptocurrency mining is a bad idea,” he wrote referring to incumbent President Joe Biden, also a Democrat.America will go to the polls to elect a president on Nov. 4, next year.

Crypto Exchange FTX and Alameda Seek to Retrieve $71 Million from Philanthropic and Life Science Entities --Defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX and its sister company Alameda Research are seeking clawbacks from FTX's philanthropic arm and other life science entities. According to court documents filed on Wednesday, the firms are seeking to recover more than $71 million that was allegedly diverted from the FTX Foundation and “Latona” – a “sham non-profit company organized in the Bahamas” – for ex-FTX boss Sam Bankman Fried (SBF)’s personal aggrandizement and political influence. Lawyers representing FTX and Alameda Research argued that the funds were transferred to life science companies, including Lumen Bioscience Inc. and Platform Life Sciences Inc., purportedly to support “effective altruism” – a philosophy often espoused by SBF before his empire came crashing down. The philosophy advocates for the redistribution of wealth from wealthy individuals to those in need. However, FTX’s lawyers claim that the true intention behind these transactions was far from philanthropic. “Bankman-Fried in fact pursued these transactions because he believed that doing so would generate goodwill and amass political capital and influence for himself," the lawyers said in the filing.Though Alameda and FTX received no explicit benefits from these investments (equity, shares, etc), lawyers argue that both SBF and Ross Rheingans-Yoo, who headed Latona, intended to personally reap any profits the companies generated if they turned out successful. In private messages unveiled by Vox at the time, SBF confessed that much of the “ethics stuff” he did prior to his exchange’s exposure was a “front” to maintain his reputation. “All the dumb shit I said, it’s not true, not really,” he wrote at the time. “This dumb game we woke westerners play where we say all the right shibboleths and so everyone likes us.”In February, the United States Democratic Party only agreed to return ~3% of donations it had received from FTX and SBF before the exchange’s collapse.

Caroline Ellison Writes About Ex-Crypto Mogul Sam Bankman-Fried - Three months before the cryptocurrency market imploded last year, Caroline Ellison, the 27-year-old chief executive of the crypto hedge fund Alameda Research, was racked with self-doubt.“I have been feeling pretty unhappy and overwhelmed with my job,” Ms. Ellison wrote in a Google document in February 2022. She added: “At the end of the day I can’t wait to go home and turn off my phone and have a drink and get away from it all.”Ms. Ellison had a lot on her mind. She did not think that she was well suited to running Alameda or particularly decisive as a leader, she wrote in another Google document. She was also going through a breakup with Sam Bankman-Fried, the billionaire entrepreneur who had founded Alameda and then FTX, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. They had dated on and off, and Ms. Ellison worried about “making things weird” and “causing drama.”“It doesn’t really feel like there’s an end in sight,” she wrote in the February 2022 document.Now Ms. Ellison is poised to be a star witness at Mr. Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial, which is scheduled for Oct. 2.Mr. Bankman-Fried, 31, is accused of misusing billions of dollars taken from customer accounts and faces eight counts of fraud and election law violations. His spectacular downfall, which sent FTX and Alameda into bankruptcy, transformed Ms. Ellison from a powerful — yet relatively private — figure into a target of tabloid speculation. In December, she pleaded guilty to fraud charges and agreed to cooperate with the federal prosecutors investigating her former boyfriend.His case is speeding toward a courtroom showdown in Manhattan. Two other top FTX executives, Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, have also pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate. In June, after weeks of legal wrangling over the charges against Mr. Bankman-Fried, the judge in the case set a brisk schedule for the run-up to the trial, asking prosecutors to come up with a witness list and produce other final materials. Prosecutors are expected to begin preparing at least some witnesses in August, two people with knowledge of the matter said.As Mr. Bankman-Fried’s sometime-girlfriend and one of his earliest hires, Ms. Ellison had unique insight into the FTX founder. She also recorded many of her thoughts in writing, making observations about her personal and professional life in a handwritten diary and on Google documents that have circulated among lawyers involved in the case, according to documents reviewed by The New York Times and four people familiar with the investigation.The documents, which have not been previously reported, offer new insight into Ms. Ellison’s psychology during the final months of FTX. Ms. Ellison, now 28, was a prolific writer whose Tumblr posts about Harry Potter and Jane Austen have been widely dissected. But the Google documents are more personal and raw, with some directly addressed to Mr. Bankman-Fried, illustrating the complexity of their relationship and her ambivalence about Alameda.

Sam Bankman-Fried's brother Gabe wanted to buy Nauru with FTX funds to build apocalypse bunker, new lawsuit alleges Sam Bankman-Fried’s brother Gabe wanted to use the FTX Foundation to buy the island nation of Nauru and set up a bunker for him and other ‘effective altruists’ could live out the apocalypse in style. Gabe’s island dream is one of the most eye-catching of the many revelations that have bubbled to the surface in a series of lawsuits the FTX bankruptcy estate has filed to recover hundreds of millions of FTX dollars from the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire—money the estate alleges was fraudulently allocated customer cash.In its latest claim filed in a Delaware bankruptcy court on Thursday, the FTX estate—led by former Enron bankruptcy steward John Ray—is seeking 48 counts related to the fraudulent transfer of funds by former FTX executives: Bankman-Fried, CTO Gary Wang, head of engineering Nishad Singh, and Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison.The lawsuit includes previous allegations about how the executives used the windfalls of FTX—including that Bankman-Fried is using customer funds to bankroll his own defense—as well as new claims on its lavish spending. In one, the bankruptcy estate’s lawyers detail how the executives set up a charity called the FTX Foundation “that served little purpose other than to enhance the public stature of Defendants,” alleging that it receives grants directly from bank accounts that contained customer funds.The lawsuit describes the FTX Foundation’s projects as “frequently misguided and sometimes dystopian,” including a $30,000 grant to an individual to write a book about how to figure out “humans’ utility functions.”Another $400,000 grant went to an entity that produced animated videos for YouTubeabout effective altruism, a philosophical movement popular among FTX executives that seeks to maximize social impact through charitable giving and other lifestyle choices.Before FTX’s collapse, Bankman-Fried was a top donor for political and social causes, often working with his brother, Gabriel Bankman-Fried, a former Democratic staffer and the founder of an advocacy organization called Guardian Against Pandemics.According to the New York Times, GAP raised more than $22 million in its first year in 2021, with most coming from Sam Bankman-Fried, turning it into an immediate lobbying force. The lawsuit alleges that Sam Bankman-Fried directed at least $35 million to GAP, the majority of which came from Alameda accounts containing commingled customer funds.And then there’s Gabe’s island.In the lawsuit, the lawyers cite a memo between Gabe Bankman-Fried and an officer of the FTX Foundation where he describes a plan to purchase Nauru, a tiny nation island in Micronesia.The goal, according to the memo, would be to build a bunker that could be used in the event that “50%-99.99% of people die,” with the aim of ensuring that most EAs, or effective altruists, can survive, as well as to develop “sensible regulation around human genetic enhancement, and build a lab there.”“Probably there are other things it’s useful to do with a sovereign country, too,” the memo also notes.

Sen. Lummis says crypto bill could prevent another FTX-style crisis— Following a tumultuous year for crypto, a bipartisan duo in Congress is seeking to direct the U.S. government to regulate the industry with a bill that, they say, could prevent another FTX-style disaster.Last week, Sens. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., introduced a reworked bill based on the one they revealed months before the collapse of FTX last fall; they have dubbed it "the most comprehensive" bill to address the digital currency space.“We know how to regulate it. We know how to safely define what is a commodity and what is a security,” Lummis said in an interview at her office in the Senate Russell Building. “We can put sufficient consumer protections and safeguards on this industry so that something like the failure of FTX would likely not happen in the United States.”Their proposal would, for the first time, draw a clear line between a security and a commodity, and allocate enforcement authority to the agencies that oversee them. The legislation also looks to empower the Securities Exchange Commission to play more of an aggressive role in ensuring consumer protections.“Over the past year, we worked together and with key stakeholders to improve our framework — we added strong new consumer protections and anti-money laundering provisions, delivered additional resources to regulatory agencies so they can enforce new regulations, and created clarity so that businesses can innovate responsibly,” Gillibrand said in a statement.Under the bill, companies would be required to disclose cryptocurrency risks to consumers by proving reserves and communicating with customers using clear, plain language.The bill also grants the Commodities Futures Trading Commission jurisdiction over nonsecurities crypto assets, and requires all crypto asset exchanges to register with the commission.Lummis said she and Gillibrand “believe the CFTC is ready for its role” in regulating the crypto industry, and that the SEC is “very capable of providing adequate consumer protections and disclosures” because of the commission’s existing experience in the space.Because last year’s version of the bill viewed many digital assets as intangible “ancillary assets,” most cryptocurrencies would have been treated as commodities under CFTC’s purview. This time around, the senators said they tried to remedy the SEC’s concerns that the legislation would cede too much power from the regulatory arm.In recent months, SEC Chair Gary Gensler has beefed up scrutiny over the crypto industry, charging industry giants Binance and Coinbase with violating securities laws — as supporters of digital assets say Gensler is misusing his authority. Lummis said it’s just another argument that proves the industry is ready for regulation.“Companies like Kraken and Coinbase have gone to the SEC and asked them to be clear and lay out the regulatory requirements that the SEC believes should apply to them,” she said. “And they’re frustrated because they feel like they were trying to comply, but instead some of them got enforcement actions slapped on them.”Facing regulatory uncertainty, interested lawmakers and investors alike fear crypto companies will ramp up their businesses overseas and eventually leave the U.S. altogether. In a report issued this year, JPMorgan urged lawmakers to produce “a comprehensive framework on how to regulate the crypto industries and the relative responsibilities of SEC vs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”

Crypto industry faces new pressure from anti-money laundering regulations A bipartisan group of senators on Wednesday introduced an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that includes new anti-money laundering provisions for the crypto industry.Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), have teamed up to put forward the proposal, geared at preventing the use of crypto assets in illicit financial transactions, in an amendment to annual legislation the that sets the budget for the nation’s armed forces.The amendment would “require regulators to set examination standards for financial institutions engaged in crypto asset activities and require the Treasury Department to give recommendations to Congress regarding crypto asset mixers and anonymity-enhancing crypto assets,” according to Gillibrand’s office.“Prohibiting the use of cryptocurrencies for money laundering and illicit finance is critical to both our national security and economy. This amendment will require federal regulators to enact strong examination standards that will help prevent the utilization of cryptocurrencies in illegal activities,” Gillibrand said in a release. The Senate began considering the annual national defense policy package on Tuesday following the House’s approval of the must-pass legislation last week. Conservative Republican lawmakers in the House added several amendments, leading to an unusually partisan vote.The proposed amendment on cryptocurrency was developed from a bill Lummis and Gillibrandreintroduced earlier this month that’s aimed at creating a regulatory framework for crypto assets — as well as from a bill by Warren and Marshall introduced last year to extend anti-money laundering to cryptocurrency.Lummis and Gillibrand have been seen as more supportive of the crypto sector, while Warren and Marshall have been more critical of the quickly growing industry, pushing to expand the government’s regulatory power over crypto.Marshall said in a statement that the newly proposed bipartisan amendment to the NDAA “will set commonsense standards to ensure that proper guardrails are in place as crypto use continues [to] grow across the world.”

The US Department Of Justice Will Double Its Crypto Enforcement Teams To Combat Crimes - The United States Department of Justice is set to expand its digital asset crime enforcement teams in the coming months as part of wider plans to reduce virtual-asset-related crimes. In a speech delivered on July 20, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Nicole Argentieri, the Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General disclosed the department’s plans to revamp the division. According to her, the National Crypto Enforcement Team (NCET) will become a permanent body within the criminal division to handle cryptocurrency-related investigations. The NCET, established in 2021 has taken on high-profile investigations and would now be merged with the Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section (CCIPS). Though merged, the NCET would continue investigating and prosecuting related offenses, leveraging the larger structure and added resources. “It’s now time to bring NCET to the next level, merging it into [Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section] will give it the resources and runway to accomplish even more.” The new arrangement will see the team get a new leader with Claudia Quitoz serving as its acting director. Per the briefing, former director Eun Young Choi, the former director will be moving to another position within the Justice Department. The NCET as an independent unit within the CCIPS will get maximum resources including its prosecutors handling crypto fraud cases being placed on equal footing with those in the CCIPS. The number of staff would also double across key areas as crypto and cyber-related offenses continue to rise in several states. Argentieri during her briefing lauded the efforts recorded by the NCET in the last two years in tackling ransomware crimes in the country. She noted that the team is “supercharged” to trackingcriminals through their crypto transactions and freezing such assets “before they go to Russia and other ransomware hotspots.”The NCET swung into action with Choi explaining the department's focus on decentralized finance theft and hacks. Notable among the issues faced by the department is the infamous FTX scandal. The team has helped bring charges against Sam Bankman Fried including investigations into FTX and its sister company Alameda Research. Aside from FTX, the team was also at the fore of the case against Bitzlato, a Hong Kong-based digital exchange, and most recently, its investigation into Binance.

Crypto Needs Comprehensive Policies to Protect Economies and Investors - – IMF Blog -The global push for clearer policies on crypto assets has gained momentum under the Indian G20 Presidency. As this work continues, it’s important to recognize the progress already achieved, but more is needed, especially in implementing global standards.Last year’s failures of the FTX crypto trading platform and the Terra Luna stablecoin highlighted the urgency of establishing clear policies to protect investors and prevent abuse. Despite recent industry challenges, investor optimism continues to revive periodically, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s near doubling this year. Without robust safeguards, the increased risk of fraud and misconduct could adversely impact investors' expected returns.While some policymakers have taken necessary steps to safeguard consumers and ensure financial integrity, it is equally important to consider the broader implications of crypto. Such assets, particularly stablecoins denominated in hard currencies, could potentially replace official currencies, and significantly impact countries' monetary and fiscal policies. This is especially true in emerging markets and developing economies, underscoring the need for a comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated policy approach to crypto.That’s why we presented an assessment of the macro implications of crypto assets to the G20 presidency earlier this year, building on recommendations outlined in the Elements of Effective Policies for Crypto Assets endorsed by the IMF Executive Board in February.Our approach features three key pillars: a sound macro-policy foundation, clear legal treatment and granular rules, and effective implementation. These are our key policy recommendations:

The defense against the substitution of sovereign currencies is the maintenance of robust, trusted, and credible domestic institutions. Transparent, consistent, and coherent monetary policy frameworks are crucial for an effective response to the challenges posed by crypto assets.
To protect national sovereignty, it is important not to grant crypto assets official currency or legal tender status. Doing so would require accepting them in many jurisdictions for tax payments, fines, and debt settlements, and could generate fiscal risks for government finances, and could threaten financial stability or rapid inflation.
To address the volatility of capital flows associated with crypto, policymakers should integrate them within existing regimes and rules that manage capital flows. This will help ensure stability and minimize potential disruptions.
Finally, tax policies should ensure unambiguous treatment of crypto assets, and administrators should strengthen compliance efforts. Specific regulations are needed to clarify the tax treatment of crypto, including value-added taxes or levies on income or wealth.

Synchrony projects confidence as CFPB scrutinizes medical credit cards -The credit card issuer Synchrony Financial doesn't appear to be too worried about new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau scrutiny of medical-related cards.The consumer lender is "very proud of the CareCredit products that we offer," Synchrony CEO Brian Doubles said Tuesday on a quarterly earnings call. The company's CareCredit unit provides financing for elective procedures, wellness expenses, dental care and pet care.The CFPB has been scrutinizing medical financing as part of a broader Biden administration push to lower health care costs. Last week, the agency held a hearing on ways that consumers finance health care spending — a likely precursor to a clamp-down on certain products.The hearing focused largely on credit cards that offer deferred interest — where consumers can get a 0% rate for several months but face retroactive interest charges if there's a balance at the end of the period. Synchrony's CareCredit card offers that type of promotional financing.Asked about the topic on Tuesday, Doubles said that CareCredit is "not a medical credit card" and noted that 70% of the business comes from dental and pet care.He also said the company has "worked very hard to ensure that the products are fair and transparent," with deferred interest practices that are "industry-leading." Years ago, the CFPB investigated Synchrony over deferred interest products, but in 2021 the agency opted against an enforcement action.

Credit card, auto, mortgage loan rejection rates on the rise, Fed says - The rejection rate for people applying for credit jumped to 21.8% in June, up from 17.3% in February and the highest level in five years, according to a Federal Reserve survey on Monday. The survey is released every four months with data collected during February, June, and October. The latest increase was broad-based across age groups and was highest among those with credit scores below 680, it said. The highest credit score is 850 and the lowest is 350. The report underscores the caution financial institutions are taking amid one of the most aggressive Fed rate hiking cycles in history and a potential recession. Major banks like JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and now, Bank of America, reported they were setting aside more money to cover bad consumer loans as credit card balances rise.Delinquency rates in credit cards and other retail lines are rising and expected to rise further before leveling off to "normal levels." said Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said on a conference call last week. The four biggest U.S. lenders wrote off a combined $3.4 billion in bad consumer loans in the first three months of 2023, a 73% increase from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg. “Our net charge-offs continue to slowly increase from historical lows, and our allowance for credit losses increased," said Mike Santomassimo, Wells Fargo CFO, in an earnings conference call last week. "We are closely monitoring our portfolios and taking credit-tightening actions where we believe appropriate."The rejection rate for auto loans rose to 14.2% from 9.1% in February to the highest level since this data was first collected in 2013 and for the first time, exceeded the application rate. “It’s risk aversion mode for banks,” said Alex Liegl, chief executive at Tenet, which provides electric vehicle financing, referring to the trend over the past year of banks cutting back or exiting auto lending completely. “Consumers are already under pressure, and even worse off now because banks are reducing their lending.” Rejection rates for credit cards, credit card limit increase requests, mortgages, and mortgage refinance applications rose to 21.5%, 30.7%, 13.2%, and 20.8%, respectively, the Fed said. As interest rates rose, overall credit applications fell over the past 12 months to 40.3%, the lowest since October 2020 and down from 40.9% in February, the survey showed. However, the proportion of respondents reporting that they are likely to apply for one or more types of credit over the next twelve months rose to 26.4% from 26.1% in February.

Black credit union leaders assess Supreme Court's impact on diversity | Credit Union Journal --The Supreme Court's rollback of affirmative action has given many credit union professionals pause on how to advance internal plans for diversity, equity and inclusion while remaining compliant with any future legal rulings. Opinions rendered by the justices in two separate June 29 decisions found that collegiate admission procedures involving race at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina were unconstitutional, and thus not covered under the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. Despite any direct impact on the financial services industry, the heads of many institutions and trade associations are taking a second, more scrutinized look at DEI programs in preparation of any possible challenges. Renée Sattiewhite, president and chief executive of the African American Credit Union Coalition in Snellville, Georgia, recounted how members who sit at the helms of institutions across the country were concerned about the impact of the Supreme Court's decisions. "My knee-jerk reaction was, oh my god, we've got Roe v. Wade and all these things are being returned that if we don't watch closely and speak out, we will be so regressed as a country that it will be hard to break away from what are currently the systematic racism behaviors and ideologies," present in the banking system, Sattiewhite said.

Fed watchdog warns AI, machine learning may perpetuate bias in lending -The Federal Reserve’s top watchdog warned Tuesday artificial intelligence and machine learning could bolster bias in lending practices.“While these technologies have enormous potential, they also carry risks of violating fair lending laws and perpetuating the very disparities that they have the potential to address,” the Fed’s vice chair of supervision, Michael Barr, said at the National Fair Housing Alliance (NFHA) 2023 national conference.While new artificial intelligence tools could relatively cheaply expand credit to more people, machine learning and AI may also exacerbate bias or inaccuracies inherent in data used to train the systems or make inaccurate predictions, Barr added.The Fed recently announced two policy initiatives to address appraisal discrimination in mortgage transactions.On June 1, the Fed and several agencies requested public comment on a proposed rule to implement quality control standards in automated valuation models. Under the proposed rule, institutions that engage in certain credit decisions would be required to adopt policies, practices and control systems that ensure a “high level of confidence” in automated estimates and protect against manipulation of data.A week later, the same agencies invited public comment on guidance to help financial institutions incorporate “reconsiderations of value” into their home appraisal process. Valuations may contain errors, omissions or discrimination that could affect the value of the appraisal, the agencies argued, and a reconsideration of value could help mitigate the risk of improperly valuing real estate.“Homeownership is an important way for families to build wealth, and we should give them every opportunity to share in those benefits,” Barr said, noting he was “fully supportive” of both policy initiatives.

Fed's Barr: AI could 'perpetuate or even amplify' bias in mortgages - The Federal Reserve's top regulator is wary of the use of artificial intelligence in mortgage underwriting. Speaking at the National Fair Housing Alliance's national conference Tuesday morning, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said advancements in mortgage origination technology could lead to discriminatory lending practices. Barr called for transparency around the models used by artificial intelligence, or AI, programs. He also noted that the Fed is factoring tech advancements into its bank oversight responsibilities under the Fair Housing Act and Equal Credit Opportunity Act. "While banks are still in the early days of adopting artificial intelligence and other machine learning technologies, we are working to ensure that our supervision keeps pace," Barr said. "Through our supervisory process, we evaluate whether firms have proper risk management and controls, including with respect to those new technologies." Barr's remarks on AI supervision were part of a broader speech commemorating the 55th anniversary of the Fair Housing Act, a landmark piece of legislation prohibiting racial discrimination in housing sales and rentals. Barr acknowledged that machine learning capabilities could be used to expand the availability of credit to prospective borrowers without credit scores. This can be done by capturing a wider array of information than what traditional credit rating agencies consider. If these programs operate at a large enough scale, he said, that could also enable them to expand credit more broadly. Yet, he also noted that these AI programs could "perpetuate or even amplify" certain biases by drawing from data that is flawed or incomplete and thereby reach inaccurate conclusions about borrowers based on their race, color, national origin, religion, sex, familial status or disability. On the other hand, he added, inadequate technology could steer minority borrowers toward more expensive or lower quality financial products — a dynamic Barr described as "reverse redlining."

Climate change and the uninsurable future - A person buying insurance does so because he or she is concerned about the future. Insurance companies, however, concern themselves primarily with the past. They pay people called actuaries to create detailed models of risk using voluminous data from the past regarding medical diagnoses, life expectancy, damage due to natural disasters, auto accident statistics and myriad other pieces of information. These models help insurance companies predict the frequency and severity of the events they insure against and thereby set their rates. If, however, conditions that create risks are rapidly changing—as they are now with climate change—models dependent on past data become unreliable. As a result, property and casualty insurers have been stung by huge losses due to severe weather. For example, the California wildfires of 2017 and 2018 resulted in $29 billion in insurance claims. But insurers only took in $15.6 billion in premiums.Hurricanes and floods resulted in $120 billion in insured losses in 2022. Companies expect insured losses to continue to rise as climate change intensifies. So much of modern life depends on the availability of insurance. Homeowners who have paid off their homes can go without insurance, but few do. That's because homes are often the largest asset that a family owns. Homes with mortgages are always insured because the lender requires it. And no modern business can function without insurance for property and liability. Even nonprofit organizations including houses of worship carry insurance. Divine protection is not usually considered enough by those who govern such institutions. Now the viability of the insurance industry is at risk. Insurance companies know this, and one solution is simply not to insure homes and businesses in places at high risk for flooding, hurricanes, wildfires and other quickly mounting hazards. For example, many insurance companies have left Florida due to the increasingly high and unquantifiable risk. Three major insurers stopped writing polices in Florida recently. Twelve other national companies left the state previously between 2020 through 2022. Of the remaining companies, many are Florida-only insurers and six of those became insolvent last year. Thirty Florida-only companies are being watched closely by state regulators because of fears they might become insolvent. Climate-enhanced wildfire risks in California have led three large insurers to stop writing new policies for homeowners. The companies also say that state regulators' limits on policy premiums in the face of rising risks were part of the reason for pulling back.Naturally, states want to keep insurance available and affordable for their citizens. So, many have opened their own property and casualty insurance companies to fill the gap left behind by private insurers. Problem is, those state-sponsored insurance companies face the same risks as the exiting private companies. Any losses that exceed resources will ultimately be made up by taxpayers, many of whom do not benefit from state-backed insurance and many of whom purchased or built homes and businesses in less risky places.The mounting risk has not gone unnoticed by those to who insure insurance companies known as reinsurers. Insurance companies often insure themselves against major losses through reinsurance. Earlier this month reinsurers upped their rates for U.S. property and casualty insurers by as much at 50 percent. Of course, the rest of the world is experiencing huge losses due to climate change-enhanced severe weather, too. Examples include catastrophic flooding in eastern Australia and floods affecting more than 33 million people in Pakistan, both in 2022. It would be one thing if this new normal were a one-time change. Insurance companies could probably easily adjust. But the problem with climate change is that it is a moving target. Severe weather is going to get worse and worse as climate change continues to intensify. The intersection between the prices buyers of insurance are willing or able to pay and the prices insurers need to stay solvent must of necessity shrink. And, the reluctance of insurers to take on risk they can no longer understand is already making private insurance less available. That means more and more people may go without insurance in an increasingly risky environment. And, that means one of three things:

Governments choose to provide insurance. (For example, the U.S. government already provides 95 percent all the flood insurance in the country.)
Governments end up paying to rebuild uninsured homes, businesses and other private infrastructure when they are damaged in natural disasters.
In the absence of government help, those who are uninsured and haven't the resources to rebuild will leave or sell at rock-bottom prices whatever is left of their property. Much of what gets devastated will never be rebuilt.

BankThink: There are too many housing crises going on at once | American Banker -- There are a lot of things to love about the Pacific Northwest besides the weather, which is why it remains among the fastest-growing regions of the country. But it also illustrates — in often visceral ways — a burgeoning housing crisis that policymakers are going to have a harder and harder time ignoring. That crisis can be put succinctly like this: There aren't enough places for people to live. But there's more to it than that — there are too few entry-level homes for young people to buy and in which to start a family; the owners of those starter homes that do exist feel "locked in" to their sweet, low-interest-rate mortgages, so they aren't moving on up the way they're supposed to; and at the very bottom of the ladder, there isn't anywhere for the poorest Americans to live, rendering more and more people homeless, which creates its own host of problems.Problems like these don't just happen — it's not an earthquake or a meteor. It is, in this case, the result of policymakers' abdication to market forces of their responsibility for keeping housing economics in check and something of an overcorrection in housing finance policy after 2008. Back in the early part of the 21st century, investors started zeroing in on mortgages as the safest investment out there, which incentivized homebuilders to build more homes and banks and other mortgage originators to make more mortgages, and eventually to get more and more creative in how they underwrote them. That led to the global financial crisis, which brought us the Dodd-Frank Act, which — among other things — cracked down on what kinds of mortgages banks could offer and to whom, and under what circumstances. The result was a relative dearth of new housing construction, and what housing was being constructed was on the middle- to high-end of the spectrum because that's where the margins are highest. It also means that low- and not-so-low-income borrowers are having a harder and harder time buying — or even renting — a home, if they can even find one. That ever-increasing cost of rent is, at the very least, a significant driver of the increase in homelessness that is so evident here in Eugene and in other cities across the country. The genius of capitalism would instruct us that if there is sufficient demand for something, the invisible hand of the market will find a way to generate supply for said thing. But that doesn't seem to be the case for housing.Part of that is because housing isn't like any other widget — making a new house or duplex or apartment requires a great deal of upfront costs for zoning and permitting, and the costs of materials make a new home of almost any type inherently expensive. And when you're done, the finished product is in such high demand that even an affordable home isn't so affordable anymore. That drives people to look for substitutes — namely hotel rooms, cars and tents. Sooner or later, people who aren't already sick of this situation are going to be, and that is going to create the conditions for an enterprising politician and/or party to cynically harness that anger to their short-term advantage. Former President Trump has put forward an idea of sorts to make homelessness illegal and set up tent cities for the unhoused. That doesn't sound like a realistic plan to change these fundamental economic dynamics for the better, but it's up to the Biden administration to come up with a better one.

Empty Office Spaces Can Be Converted to Residential Buildings – But It Won’t Be Affordable - -Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, more companies have offered remote work options for their employees, or have even switched to working entirely remotely – leaving empty office buildings a new fixture in many cities. While converting office buildings to multi-family residential involves many considerations – including zoning codes, real estate values and structural issues – certain buildings may be good candidates for this type of conversion. First off, the building owners wouldn’t need to make any major structural changes to convert an office building to a residential building. Most office buildings are designed so that the tenants can easily build out the space to suit their needs. This means they can put up walls, take power where they need, and select finishes like flooring, paint and lighting.With a conversion to multi-family residential, the shell and structural elements of the building would remain, while the building owners could add or move walls to create individual apartments. The costs for this interior remodeling would depend on the how fancy things like the countertops and light fixtures are.But remodelers would also need to consider nonstructural building features, like windows. Windows determine the distribution of natural light in each residential unit. Narrower office buildings with more area along the perimeter – and therefore more opportunity for viewing windows – would transition more easily to residential than deep, rectangular-shaped office buildings. No one wants to live in a home with no daylight.Residential and commercial buildings have different electricity needs. Residential buildings have kitchen appliances that require lots of power, but office buildings use more computers, projectors and copy machines – meaning the electrical load would likely be about the same. Office and residential buildings also have similar power needs for lighting.The electrical load from heating and air conditioning would depend on the type of systems used. While the main electrical service of an office building might be an OK size for a residential building, remodelers would need to add a subpanel to each residential unit. U.S. code requires that all residents have “ready access” to the circuit breakers or fuses supplying their unit.Building owners would also need to add more fire alarm devices, since residential buildings have more rooms. They might need to revise the internet, telephone and cable systems, as well, to make sure each residential tenant has access to these services. Though expensive, these electrical revisions are possible. The biggest hurdles would be adding the subpanels and metering to figure out how much each unit uses.While commercial buildings usually have centralized HVAC systems, residential buildings need separate HVAC systems and controls for each residential unit. That being said, mid-rise and high-rise apartment buildings often use a centralized HVAC system with variable air volume units in each zone. Variable air volume units work together with a central air handling unit that supplies a constant airflow. Each variable air volume unit then adjusts the air flow for its specific zone. Each smaller apartment would be a zone, but some larger apartments may need multiple zones. Residential buildings typically have a smaller HVAC load than office buildings, meaning the existing HVAC system would be larger than needed for residential reuse. Oversized air conditioning systems often have humidity problems – add to that the fact that residential tenants create more humidity from showering, doing laundry and cooking. The way to mitigate humidity here is through additional exhaust fans. Variable air volume units would also help keep the extra humidity under control. Building owners would need to pay for these additions, as well as ductwork remodeling. In office buildings, most plumbing is centralized, often in the building’s core. For instance, bathrooms tend to be grouped together and located in the same spot on each floor. However, in residential buildings, plumbing is distributed throughout. Each unit typically has its own bathroom and kitchen, and each requires drinking water and sanitary sewer. The biggest issues here would be the service sizes – or how large the pipes serving the building are – and the interior plumbing system. The service sizes for water and sewer in an office building may not be big enough for residential uses. This would depend on local codes and the number of plumbing fixtures. It’s likely that the pipe for a sewer utility connection would need to be larger for an apartment building than for an office building. Also, the interior plumbing system would need a remodel to serve each residential unit. Reworking the plumbing for water should be possible. However, reworking the sanitary sewer system would be much more difficult, especially on upper floors. Gravity makes things run downhill, and longer horizontal pipes need more vertical drop to keep things flowing in the right direction. This remodel would require new plumbing chases – vertical cavities that pipes run in – to accommodate the sanitary sewer and vent piping needs. Adding these chases would likely require core drilling of floors. If the owner wanted to invest the money, it would be doable – but expensive. The fire sprinkler system would likely need revisions once the new walls go up, but the size of the pipe bringing water to the sprinkler system should be pretty close to the right size.

Black Knight: "Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Hit Lowest Level Since 2006" in June - From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Hit Lowest Level Since 2006; Prepayments Trended Seasonally Higher in June Despite Elevated Interest Rates

• Inching up 2 basis points from May, the national delinquency rate continues to hover near recent record lows, with June’s marking the third lowest level on record
• The number of serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due) dropped to 471K – the lowest since August 2006 – and a 177K (-27%) improvement from June 2022
• Early-stage delinquencies (30-days late) increased by 19K (+2.2%), while borrowers who’ve missed two payments (60-days past due) ticked up by 5K (+1.7%)
• Foreclosure starts also increased slightly to 28K for the month – just 1% above the preceding 12-month average and still 38% below the June 2019’s pre-pandemic level
• Foreclosure was started on 5.8% of serious delinquencies in June, up from 5.1% in May but still three percentage points below the start rate in May 2019 before the onset of the pandemic
• The number of loans in active foreclosure shrunk another 5K in June and is still down 47K (-17%) from March 2020; meanwhile, June’s 6.9K foreclosure sales (completions) marked a 1.5% increase from May.

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent increased 0.55% in June compared to May and decreased 2.8% year-over-year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.12% in June, down from 3.10% the previous month. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in June to 0.42%, from 0.43% the previous month.The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 24,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 5,000 properties year-over-year.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.44% in June" - - Interesting - the states that have seen price decreases (in the West) have the most current loans (see bottom). There is no financial distress related to price decreases. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.44% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from [0.49%] of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to [0.44%] as of June 30, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 220,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 7.9 million borrowers since March 2020. In June 2023, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.21%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 13 basis points to 0.93%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 6 basis points to 0.52%. “Mortgage forbearance has declined because most homeowners have maintained or improved their financial health,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Recent reporting by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows continued job growth in June, and a 3.6 percent unemployment rate. The employment situation tracks with homeowners’ ability to make mortgage payments.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.The share of forbearance plans has been decreasing, declined to 0.44% in June from 0.49% in May.At the end of June, there were about 220,000 homeowners in forbearance plans. The second graph shows the percent of mortgages current by state.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 6% YoY; New Listings Down 19% YoY Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Sabrina Speianu and Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 15, 2023

• Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 6%. Following a year of declining newly listed homes, the stock of active inventory began to decline in June and this past week continued a four week trend with an annual decline of 6%. As interest rates remain elevated, hampering selling activity, we expect the stock of homes for sale to continue to remain low, declining by 5% overall for the year. .
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 19% from one year ago. The number of newly listed homes has been lower than the same time the previous year for the past 54 weeks. This past week, newly listed homes were down 19% compared to the same time last year. However, this past week’s data showed a more narrow gap than the previous week, as 102,000 newly listed homes were added to the nation’s housing inventory, the highest level in five weeks. Seller sentiment, as measured by Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index, was net positive in June, however higher interest rates continue to ‘lock-in’ otherwise would-be home sellers and in response selling sentiment declined from the month before. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was down 5.0% year-over-year - this was the fourth consecutive YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory. Inventory is still up from the record lows in the 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022, and it is unlikely we will see new record lows by this measure this year.

Housing July 17th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.2% Week-over-week; Down 7.5% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 14th, inventory was at 470 thousand (7-day average), compared to 465 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 4.1%. And inventory is up 16.0% from the seasonal bottom 13 weeks ago.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.Inventory was down 7.5% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 4.6%), and down 50.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 51.0%). It appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year. A key will be if inventory falls below the record levels in 2021 (only about 21% above 2021 levels). Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.16 million in June --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retreated 3.3% in June; Monthly Median Sales Price Reached Second-Highest Amount Ever - Existing-home sales slipped in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales varied among the four major U.S. regions, with the Northeast experiencing gains, the Midwest holding steady, and the South and West posting decreases. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 3.3% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million in June. Year-over-year, sales fell 18.9% (down from 5.13 million in June 2022)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.08 million units, identical to May but down 13.6% from one year ago (1.25 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.0 months in May and 2.9 months in June 2022.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.Sales in June (4.16 million SAAR) were down 3.3% from the previous month and were 18.9% below the June 2022 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory was unchanged at 1.08 million in June from 1.08 million in May. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 13.6% year-over-year (blue) in June compared to June 2022.Months of supply (red) increased to 3.1 months in June from 3.0 months in May.This was below the consensus forecast.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.16 million SAAR in June; Median Prices Declined 0.9% YoY in June -- Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.16 million SAAR in June; Median Prices Declined 0.9% YoY in June Excerpt:On prices, the NAR reported: The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $410,200, the second-highest price of all time and down 0.9% from the record-high of $413,800 in June 2022. The monthly median price surpassed $400,000 for the third time, joining June 2022 and May 2022 ($408,600). Prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest but waned in the South and West.Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices). The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and prices are now down 0.9% YoY. Median house prices increased 3.5% from May to June and aredown 0.9% from the peak in June 2022 (NSA). The median price tends to lead the Case-Shiller index, and this is further evidence that Case-Shiller will likely turn positive year-over-year.Note that closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, average around 6.4% in April and May. July sales will be for contracts signed in May and June, mortgage rates averaged 6.7% in June, so closed sales will likely be similar or less in July compared to June.There is much more in the article.

AIA: Architecture Billings "Stable" in June; Multi-family Billings Decline for 11th Consecutive Month This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Stable in June - Architecture firms reported flat billings in June, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.The ABI score of 50.1 for the month indicates that billings at architecture firms remained steady as design activity continues to slowly recover from roiled economic conditions. This also marks the first time since last fall that there have been two consecutive months of scores above 50, although growth in June was weaker than May (any score above 50 indicates an increase in firm billings).. “We are still facing some headwinds in the broader economy, but this respite suggests that market conditions may be finding firmer ground.”Firms located in the Midwest continue to report the strongest billings for the eighth consecutive month, while firms in nearly all regions of the country also reported improving business conditions in June. Firms also reported that inquiries into new projects fell slightly from 57.2 to 56.7 the previous month. Further, the value of new design contracts edged up to 52.7 in June from 52.3 in May.Firm backlogs have decreased from their record-high levels in 2022 but remain robust at an average of 6.8 months....
• Regional averages: Midwest (52.4); Northeast (50.6); South (50.5); West (48.6)
• Sector index breakdown: institutional (55.4); mixed practice (firms that do not have at least half of their billings in any one other category) (48.8); commercial/industrial (47.8); multi-family residential (47.4)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 50.1 in June, down from 51.0 in May. Anything above 50 indicates an increase in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has declined in 6 of the last 9 months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment later in 2023 and into 2024. Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for ELEVEN consecutive months (with revisions). This suggests we will see a further downturn in multi-family starts this year.

June Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately‐owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,434,000. This is 8.0 percent below the revised May estimate of 1,559,000 and is 8.1 percent below the June 2022 rate of 1,561,000. Single‐family housing starts in June were at a rate of 935,000; this is 7.0 percent below the revised May figure of 1,005,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 482,000 Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised May rate of 1,496,000 and is 15.3 percent below the June 2022 rate of 1,701,000. Single‐family authorizations in June were at a rate of 922,000; this is 2.2 percent above the revised May figure of 902,000.Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in June. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in June compared to May. Multi-family starts were down 9.4% year-over-year in June. Single-family starts (red) decreased in June and were down 7.4% year-over-year. Note that the weakness over the last year had been in single family starts (red), however it appears weakness is moving to multi-family now while single family has bounced back somewhat from the bottom. The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts. Total housing starts in June were below expectations, and starts in April and May were revised down, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). Total starts were down 8.0% in June compared to June 2022. And starts year-to-date are down 15.0% compared to last year. Starts have been down year-over-year for 13 of the last 14 months (May 2023 was the exception), and I expect total starts to be down this year - although the year-over-year comparisons will be easier the rest of the year. Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 688 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This was down in June compared to May, and 143 thousand below the recent peak in May 2022. Single family units under construction peaked over a year ago since single family starts declined sharply. Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 994 thousand multi-family units under construction. This ties the record set in July 1973 of multi-family units being built for the baby-boom generation. For multi-family, construction delays are a significant factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure. Combined, there are 1.682 million units under construction, just 28 thousand below the all-time record of 1.710 million set in October 2022. Comparing Starts and Completions Below is a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12-month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. Multifamily starts will likely decline, and completions increase for the remainder of 2023.The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single-family home and completion - so the lines are much closer than for multi-family. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in July - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 56, up from 55 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Higher Despite Rising Rate Concerns: Low existing inventory that is keeping demand solid for new homes helped to push builder confidence up in July even as the industry continues to grapple with rising mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and limited lot availability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in July posted a one-point gain to 56, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the seventh straight month that builder confidence has increased and marks the highest level since June of last year. The lack of resale inventory means prospective home buyers who have not been priced out of the market continue to seek out new construction in greater numbers. At the same time, builders are troubled over rising mortgage rates approaching 7% and continue to grapple with supply-side challenges, including ongoing scarcity of electrical transformer equipment and growing concerns about lot availability. ... The July HMI survey also revealed that despite elevated interest rates, builders’ use of sales incentives has declined, as the market has firmed and resale inventory options remain limited. Only 22% of builders report cutting prices in July. This is down from 25% in June and 27% in May. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased five points to 52, the Midwest edged up two points to 45, the South increased three points to 58 and the West posted a five-point gain to 51. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was slightly above the consensus forecast.

Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in June - On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.2% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.5 percent from June 2022. From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.5 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent above June 2022. ... The April 2023 to May 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent to up 0.5 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.3% in June. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.1% on a YoY basis.The increase in sales in June was below expectations, however sales in April and May were revised up.

Industrial Production Decreased 0.5% in June - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production declined 0.5 percent in June for a second consecutive month but advanced 0.7 percent at an annual rate for the second quarter as a whole. Manufacturing output moved down 0.3 percent in June but rose 1.5 percent in the second quarter. In June, the indexes for mining and utilities fell 0.2 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively. At 102.2 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in June was 0.4 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped down to 78.9 percent in June, a rate that is 0.8 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 78.9% is 0.8 percentage points below the average from 1972 to 2022. This was below consensus expectations.The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in June to 102.2. This is above the pre-pandemic level. Industrial production was below consensus expectations, and the previous months were revised down, combined.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending July 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 246,750.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Garfield Hts. teachers resign in record numbers due to safety, admin. concerns — The Garfield Heights City School District is facing a mass departure of teachers and staff ahead of the new school year. The teachers’ union there says nearly one-third of its members have resigned, in part because of not feeling safe or valued. Rebecca Justice’s middle school son would have been the third generation of her family to graduate from Garfield Heights City Schools. “It breaks my heart that I have to take him out of this district. And that’s the only way I feel good, is to remove him from a place that is so important to my family,” she said. The mother of two recently enrolled her younger son in a different district. She told News 5 the boy faced bullying in school, including physical assaults. She said he was suspended after he fought back, but administrators never addressed her concerns for his safety before or after the incident. “There doesn’t seem to be any accountability or any support for the teachers who are trying to keep their kids safe in their classrooms,” she said. Justice brought her concerns to the Garfield Heights Board of Education meeting Monday evening. She was the only parent to speak during public comment but shared the same message as the 6 educators who spoke before her. “There’s been so much speculation about what has caused what I refer to as a mass exodus of almost 30 percent of our staff since school ended six weeks ago,” one teacher told the Board. According to the Garfield Heights Teachers’ Association, at least 75 of its members have resigned ahead of the new school year. The number includes all 5 of the district’s school psychologists and nearly half of the middle school teaching staff. “I’m hoping that losing 5 out of 5 psychologists is not looked at as a coincidence and that the central office takes a serious look at the mistreatment of staff and teachers,” an association rep told board members on behalf of a resigning employee. Before the 2022-2023 school year, 47 teachers resigned from the district. Prior to this year’s numbers, it was a record-breaking departure. Association representatives said this year’s figure does not include several other educators who submitted their resignations after July 10 and were denied. Ohio Revised Code says teachers cannot terminate their contracts after that date without the school board’s consent. “All of this pressure, lack of time, concern for my safety and feeling like I can’t be the teacher I want to be has made me dread coming to work every day,” said a high school science teacher who tried to resign after the July 10 deadline and was denied. Many teachers spoke of safety concerns, lack of disciplinary action by administrators and burnout from already short staffing. Despite a contentious contract negotiation in the fall of 2022, the association said its teachers still receive the lowest pay in Cuyahoga County. “Garfield Heights City Schools leadership did me such a disservice I do not think I will ever enter the public teaching field again,” one association rep read from a letter penned by an outgoing teacher. District leadership declined an interview request following Monday’s meeting, but the superintendent briefly addressed the retention issues in his address to the board, saying the district is gathering feedback from outgoing staff. “We’ve identified some areas that we can provide immediate improvement and other areas that will take a little more time,” Dr. Richard Reynolds told the board. As of Monday evening, the district has filled 26 of the vacant positions. Justice said she hopes leadership listens to the concerns of departing teachers and families so it can create meaningful changes. “It’s not good for the board. It’s not good for the administrators. It’s not good for the teachers or the students. It’s a very unfortunate situation,” she said..

Black leaders condemn Florida’s new education guidelines - Black leaders from around the nation are condemning Florida’s new education laws that further limit how Black history can be taught in schools. The new guidelines require lessons on race be taught in an “objective” manner that does not seek to “indoctrinate or persuade students to a particular point of view.” One updated standard requires teachers to instruct on “how slaves developed skills which, in some instances, could be applied for their personal benefit.”Some leaders, like David Johns, executive director of the National Black Justice Coalition, accused the state’s Board of Education of continuing an “assault by Florida fascists under the leadership of lies led by Gov. DeSantis.” He added that the board is “seeking to affirm white supremacy via instituting anti-Black, Black History standards.”“This is nothing more than white nationalist, segregationist politicians rewriting history in Florida, pushing the country closer toward civil war, and teaching our kids fallacies such as enslavement providing kidnapped and exploited Africans with useful skills,” said Johns, who also served as executive director of former President Obama’s White House initiative on African American Education Excellence.But the backlash to the new guidelines flows all the way to the White House. Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to Florida on Friday to address the controversy, but on Thursday blasted Florida for pushing a “revisionist history.” “Just yesterday, in the State of Florida, they decided middle school students will be taught that enslaved people benefited from slavery,” Harris said at Delta Sigma Theta Sorority Inc.’s 56th national convention in Indianapolis.“They insult us in an attempt to gaslight us, and we will not stand for it,” she continued. “We who share a collective experience in knowing we must honor history and our duty in the context of legacy.”Florida’s education policies have garnered outrage for some time. Laws limiting how sexuality and gender can be taught have sparked backlash, and teachers have been forbidden from sharing preferred pronouns or asking students theirs.The new guidelines follow a particularly controversial decision the state made earlier this year that prohibited an Advanced Placement African American studies course from running for violating state law and lacking educational value.

Sex Education and Social Media - The Incidental Economist --The United States is long overdue for comprehensive sexual health education, but many young people still do not receive any sexual education. With no U.S. federal mandate to teach a medically accurate curriculum, it is up to state and local leaders to decide on what is offered. Despite the negative sentiments of sex information on the internet (like pornography and mischaracterizing relationships), a growing body of research already shows that social media is effective. Our piece, recently published by the Public Health Post, explores how social media offers a promising stand-in (or supplement) to answer questions that many school-based curriculums fail to answer. Read the full article here.

Four things to know about the Texas A&M controversy --The president of Texas A&M University resigned on Thursday amid the fallout from the botched hiring of a Black editor to run the school’s journalism program. After publicly celebrating the hiring of former New York Times editor Kathleen McElroy with an official signing ceremony in June, the deal fell apart last week, with McElroy saying she felt “damaged by this entire process” and some faculty claiming race played a factor.Texas A&M announced in mid-June that McElroy, an alumna of the university, had been hired to run its newly revived journalism program. McElroy’s recruitment was celebrated with much fanfare, with the head of the Department of Communication and Journalism describing her addition as a “huge step forward” for the program, according to a university press release.The former Times editor — who was already a tenured professor at the University of Texas at Austin, where she had served as the head of its journalism school from 2018 to 2022 — was originally offered the Texas A&M position with the possibility of tenure.McElroy decided to walk away from the position at Texas A&M last week after pushback emerged over her past work promoting diversity and the university watered down its offer several times, the Texas Tribune reported.Amid the backlash from conservative circles, McElroy initially agreed to take a different offer for a five-year position without tenure.However, she told the Tribune that the interim dean of the College of Arts and Sciences, José Luis Bermúdez, warned her earlier this month that her hiring had “stirred up a hornet’s nest” and advised her to stay at UT-Austin.Days later, McElroy received a revised offer for a one-year contract that could be terminated at any time, which she refused.“This offer letter on Sunday really makes it clear that they don’t want me there,” she said, according to the Tribune. “But in no shape, form or fashion would I give up a tenured position at UT for a one-year contract that emphasizes that you can be let go at any point.”

New report points to homicide rate declines in US cities after pandemic-era spike — Homicides are declining in a cross-section of American cities, though their numbers remain higher than before the coronavirus pandemic took hold, according to a new report analyzing data from 30 U.S. cities. Homicides on average dropped 9.4% during the first half of 2023 as compared to the same period last year, the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice found in a report released this week. The numbers remained about 24% higher than they were in 2019, and motor vehicle thefts were up sharply in the analyzed cities. “We’re seeing a continuing decline in homicides, but most cities are not back to levels that prevailed prior to the pandemic,” said Richard Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and co-author of the report. The report is based on crime data posed online by police departments in 37 cities of varying sizes around the country. Several of the nation’s largest cities, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, are represented, but researchers didn’t have immediate access to data for others, like Houston and San Diego. Of the cities that did post crime data online, 30 included homicide numbers and 20 of those showed declines. While the analysis doesn’t capture the entire country, it’s another piece of evidence that U.S. crime rates overall are trending downward after a historic jump during the pandemic, said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and consultant at AH Datalytics who wasn’t involved in producing the report. He maintains a crime database of murder rates in about 100 cities and has made similar findings. “It’s been a widespread decline. It’s not everywhere, but it’s been widespread enough that it’s not simple randomness,” he said. The homicide declines come after an increase in 2020 of 29%, according to FBI data. It was largest one-year jump since the agency’s record-keeping began, though still below historic highs of the 1990s.

COVID vaccine in pregnancy yields antibody responses in moms, babies for 6 months | CIDRAP --mRNA COVID-19 vaccines induced an antibody response in both mothers and babies for at least 6 months after birth, with no adverse outcomes, according to a single-center study published late last week in JAMA Network Open.University of California researchers evaluated the medical records of 76 COVID-naïve mothers in San Francisco who received an mRNA vaccine during pregnancy from December 2020 to December 2021, with follow-up through March 2022.Mothers gave blood samples before vaccination and after each dose and completed an online questionnaire about adverse effects 28 days after doses. The team also measured immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations in umbilical cord blood at delivery and in infant blood and IgG and immunoglobulin A (IgA) levels in breast milk four times for 1 year.Average maternal age was 35 years, 67.1% were White, 55.3% received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, 44.7% received the Moderna version, and the median gestational age at first dose was 22.8 weeks.Systemic vaccine-related symptoms were more common after the second vaccine dose than after the first (71.2% vs 44.1%) and after the Moderna than the Pfizer vaccine (92.6% vs 53.1%). Systemic symptoms were tied to 65.6% higher median IgG concentrations than no symptoms after dose two, and average cord levels in participants with symptoms were 6.3-fold higher than in those with no symptoms.While vaccination in all trimesters triggered a robust maternal IgG response, the IgG transfer ratio was highest among those vaccinated in the second trimester. IgG was also detected in cord blood in all trimesters. IgG and IgA concentrations in breast milk remained positive for at least 5 or 6 months after birth, and infants born to women vaccinated in the second and third trimesters had positive IgG levels over the same period. No vaccine-attributed adverse outcomes occurred.

Study: 1 in 6 kids have persistent COVID symptoms for 3 months after infection | CIDRAP --A systematic review today in Pediatrics of 31 studies published through December 2022 reveals that persistent symptoms 3 months after confirmed COVID-19 infections, or "long COVID," affect 16% of children and adolescents.The 31 studies included 15,000 children, and researchers recorded more than 20 persistent symptoms. For the first months of the pandemic, there was a dearth of research and understanding on how and if children could suffer from long COVID."It was thought at first that the pediatric population was relatively spared from the long-term effects of COVID-19 after infection," the authors said. "But this changed rapidly with increasing reports and studies of pediatric patients not fully recovering from acute COVID-19."Among the studies included in the present analysis, 16.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.5% to 28.6%) of the pediatric participants experienced 1 or more persistent symptoms at least 3 months post COVID-19. Symptoms included fatigue, depression, sleep disturbance, cough, throat pain, and gastrointestinal symptoms.The three most common persistent symptoms seen in the studies were sore throat with a pooled estimate of 14.8% (95% CI, 4.8% to 37.5%); persistent fever, with an estimate of 10.9 (95% CI, 2.4% to 38.2%); and sleep disturbance, with an estimate of 10.3% (95% CI, 4.9% to 20.4%)."Long COVID in children and adolescents has been reported with a very wide symptom spectrum and with great heterogeneity among studies included in this review," the authors concluded. "There is the need for high quality, prospective, and well controlled studies to address these issues."

As ninth COVID wave sweeps Japan, wastewater data show another surge beginning in the US - Over the past three weeks, wastewater data monitoring COVID-19 provided by Biobot has shown a 50 percent increase in viral transmission in the US, a significant increase, which indicates that the country may be in the initial stages of yet another wave of the pandemic. Based on estimates by scientist and disease modeler J.P. Weiland, these wastewater data indicate that at present there are now roughly 280,000 daily infections. In other words, roughly one in every 1,180 people in the US is being infected each day and one in every 118 people is currently infected with COVID-19, given that the average infection lasts roughly 10 days. Given the complete scrapping of official COVID-19 testing and data collection by public health officials and reporting on the pandemic by the media, reliance on the efforts of individual scientists has become indispensable. The latest summer wave of infections is not only limited to the United States, as another surge is now underway across Japan and China’s second wave of mass infections has only just begun to ebb. The Japanese health ministry recently stated that the average number of COVID-19 cases reported through their 5,000 sentinel surveillance designated medical institutions has seen cases rise four-fold since the first week of May into the first week of July. The figures for Okinawa prefecture, the epicenter of the current wave, are seven-fold higher than the national average. Shigeru Omi, president of the Japan Community Health Care Organization, and previous regional director of the Western Pacific Regional Office for the World Health Organization (WHO), said during a press conference last month, “A ninth wave may have started. As people have been increasingly in contact with others, the rise in infections is as expected. I don’t know if the number of infected people will surpass that of the eighth wave, but we should focus on reducing the number of deaths and ensuring the continuity of social activities.” In other words, Japan will continue to follow the “herd immunity” policy whereby economic relations are prioritized above public health, while giving lip service to protecting the elderly and vulnerable from severe infections.

Study finds kids' obesity increased during COVID-19 --A new study based the body mass indexes (BMIs) of the residents of Monroe County, Indiana, shows the pandemic was tied to increased rates of severe obesity for children, with the greatest increase among those ages 5 to 11. The study is published in JAMA Network Open.To conduct the study, researchers looked at the medical records of 27,093 participants ages 2 to 19, with an average age of 9.8 years. BMIs for 2019, 2020, and 2021 were compared. Monroe County's population in 2020 was roughly 148,000, including 22,000 children ages 2 to 19.Overall severe obesity, defined as a BMI of 40 or high, was higher in 2020 (5.9%), and 2021 (6.3% of participants) compared to 2019 (5.1% of children). Additionally, total unhealthy BMI prevalence (overweight, obesity, and severe obesity) was also higher in 2020 (33.6%) and 2021 (32.9%) compared with 2019 (31.9%)."We observed the greatest increase in obesity prevalence among children aged 5 to 11 years (vs 2-4 and 12-19 years)," the authors write. "The findings of this cohort study suggest that childhood obesity, especially among US children aged 5 to 11 years, was significantly higher after COVID-19 restrictions were imposed." The authors said less physical activity, more screen time, and increased consumption of unhealthy food during school closures likely contributed to the increased prevalence of obesity.

Study: Most COVID cases in Danish schools didn't cause clusters in fall 2021 Most COVID-19 cases in Danish K-9 schools in fall 2021 didn't trigger clusters, but when they did, they were large, suggests a study published today in Epidemiology & Infection.A team led by Serum Institut researchers in Copenhagen conducted a register-based, observational study linking student-level data on COVID-19 test results and vaccination status of children aged 6 to 15 years with grade-level and school-specific information from August 9 to December 19, 2021.The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was dominant throughout the study, public health restrictions were minimal, and school COVID-19 testing was in place. The researchers defined clusters as three or more cases in a grade within 14 days of a primary case.By study end, 2.5% of children in grades 0 to 4 and 63.1% in grades 5 to 9 were vaccinated. Almost all children (94.4%) were tested at least once.A total of 75,225 COVID-19 infections were detected among 75,168 children (12.1% of all children). Overall, 5.7% of children were infected before the study. One or more infections were detected in 96.2% of schools, and 76.5% of 1,300 schools reported at least one cluster.Overall, 21,497 case introductions and 7,518 clusters consisting of 55,912 cases were identified. More cases and clusters were identified in lower (4,239) than in higher grades (3,281). Of 21,497 case introductions, 41.6% produced a cluster. Overall, 74.4% of cases were linked to clusters of 3 to 65 infections.

Obstructive sleep apnea linked to severe COVID-19 -- Yesterday in PLOS One, Israeli researchers report that a high risk of obstructive sleep apnea is associated with severe COVID-19 and longer hospitalization.The study was based on medical records and outcomes seen among 119 COVID-19 patients who were given questionnaires about sleep quality in the 6 to 8 weeks following hospitalization for the novel coronavirus.Among the 119 patients, 37 (31.1%) had a documented risk of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). All patients were seen at the Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Jerusalem from June to November 2020. Quadruple the risk for severe COVID. Patients with OSA were more likely to be male or older or have a higher body mass index (BMI), higher rate of high blood pressure, and more frequent snoring than patients with low OSA risk. The percentage of patients with severe COVID-19 disease at risk for OSA was significantly higher than that of patients with mild disease (50% vs 22.9%).After adjusting for BMI, age, high blood pressure, and chronic disease, the odds ratio for severe COVID-19 and OSA was 4.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 16.0)."The suggested mechanisms by which OSA increases the risk of poor outcomes from COVID-19 include exacerbation or endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, oxidative stress, microaspiration, and lung injury," the authors said. "We recommend that clinicians be aware that some COVID-19 patients who have not been diagnosed with OSA could still be at high risk for OSA, thus making them prone to severe COVID-19."

Lower- income nations lacked adequate protection for health workers during COVID-19 - A survey study across seven low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from late 2020 through 2021 reveals that that only 43% of healthcare facilities had sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) stock to comply with the COVID-19 pandemic safety guidelines as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The study was published yesterday in PLOS One.The phone-based survey included 1,554 health facilities in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Nigeria, Guatemala, Liberia, and Malawi, conducted from August 2020 to December 2021. Participating facilities were asked to take stock of PPE on the survey date. Overall 21% of healthcare facilities were in urban locations, 7% were peri-urban, and 72% were rural.Forty-six percent of facilities did not have respirators, and 16% did not have any gloves, the authors said."PPE availability was notably low in Guinea, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, where fewer than 70% of health facilities have all the recommended PPE," the authors said. "The shortage was particularly severe for respirators and masks."The WHO recommends six pieces of PPE to protect against COVID-19, including a medical mask, eye protection (goggles) or facial protection (face shield) to avoid contamination of mucous membranes; a clean, non-sterile, long-sleeved gown; and gloves. Those performing aerosolizing procedures should also wear respirators, such as N95 or FFP2s.

Profile of long COVID symptoms needing rehabilitation: a cross-sectional household survey of 12,925 SARS-CoV-2 cases between July and December 2021 in Bangladesh | Archives of Public Health | Full Text Abstract: It is important to determine the profile of long COVID (LC) symptoms within the scope of rehabilitation in Bangladesh. This study’s objective was to estimate the newly experienced long COVID symptoms needing rehabilitation by determining the prevalence and spectrum of impairments due to LC in Bangladesh. A Cross-sectional household survey of 12,925 COVID-19 patients confirmed by RT-PCR from 24 testing facilities in Bangladesh. LC was diagnosed according to WHO working group definition. COVID-19 Yorkshire Rehabilitation Scale (C19-YRS) was used to determine the symptom responses, symptom severity, new long COVID symptoms, and scope of rehabilitation. The population proportion of LC symptoms requiring rehabilitation interventions are 0.22 [95% CI, 0.20–0.24] in Bangladeshi people diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2. Among them, 0.08 [95% CI, 0.07–0.09] had mild, 0.07 [95% CI, 0.06–0.09] had moderate, and 0.05 [95% CI, 0.04–0.06] had severe long COVID symptoms (LCS). There was a significant positive correlation between LCS and functional disabilities (r = 0.889, p < 0.001), while a negative correlation was observed between the severity of symptoms and overall health (r=-0.658, p < 0.001). In comparison to the pre-COVID status, 17 new LCS were observed and the increase in the scope of rehabilitation intervention among LCS ranged between 0.01 [95% CI, 0.001–0.01] and 0.21 [95% CI, 0.19–0.22]. In Bangladesh, 59% (n = 334) of the LC cases are out of reach for any rehabilitation interventions. Conclusion: Nearly one-fourth of Bangladeshi Post-COVID-19 have long COVID (LC). Seventeen symptoms (LCS) were observed and more than half of the populations having long COVID are out of reach of any rehabilitation facilities.

US study shows rise in antibiotic-resistant Campylobacter infections - An analysis of Campylobacter infections in the United States found that their incidence remained stable or decreased from 2012 through 2018, but antibiotic resistance increased, researchers reported today in Open Forum Infectious Diseases. Using data on laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli infections from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the California and Tennessee state health departments estimated trends in incidence of infection from 2005 through 2018, adjusting for sex, age, and surveillance changes attributable to culture-independent diagnostics tests. They used a subset of Campylobacter isolates collected by the National Antimicrobial Resistance System to compare changes in resistance to erythromycin and ciprofloxacin over time.Since 2012, adjusted Campylobacter incidence saw a predicted yearly change of –0.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.1% to 0.9%). Incidence was lower among men than women and higher among children under 5 compared with other age-groups. Among 2,499 linked records in 2017-2018, the median patient age was 40.2 years, 54.8% of patients were men, 17.2% were hospitalized, and 0.2% died.The percentage of resistant infections increased from 24.5% in 2005-2016 to 29.7% in 2017-2018 for ciprofloxacin and from 2.6% to 3.3% for erythromycin—increases of 21% and 27%, respectively. People with recent international travel had higher odds than non-travelers of having isolates resistant to erythromycin (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]. 1.3 to 2.1) and to ciprofloxacin (aOR varied from 1.7 to 10.6 by race/ethnicity).Campylobacter is the most common cause of bacterial diarrheal disease in the United States and is associated with consumption of undercooked poultry, animal contact, and international travel. Although illness usually resolves without antibiotics, the study authors note that rising resistance is a concern because antibiotic treatment can shorten symptoms and be lifesaving in the case of severe infections.

Study highlights elevated mortality linked to C diff infection -A population-based cohort study in Sweden found that Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) was associated with elevated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, researchers reported yesterday in Clinical Microbiology and Infection.For the study, a team of Swedish and Belgian researchers compared individuals diagnosed as having at least one episode of CDI from 2006 through 2019 to the entire Swedish population using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Each CDI patient was matched to 10 controls, and SMRs were computed for all-cause and cardiovascular- and cancer-related mortality, which were selected based on the prevalence of the causes of death in Sweden. The analysis made adjustments for chronic comorbidities.The study included 43,150 individuals with CDI (74.8% aged 65 and older, 91.6% with hospital-acquired CDI, and 16.8% with recurrent CDI) and 355,172 controls.Overall, 61.6% of the CDI group died during the study period, compared with 28.8% of the controls. CDI was associated with a 3- to 7-fold increased mortality rate (incident rate ratio [IRR], 3.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.3 to 3.6; SMR, 6.8; 95% CI, 6.7 to 6.9) compared to the matched controls and Swedish background population, respectively. Mortality rates were highest for hospital-acquired CDI (IRR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.9 to 3.2) and during the first CDI episode (IRR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.3 for recurrent versus first CDI). Individuals with CDI had more chronic comorbidities than controls, yet mortality remained higher among CDI cases even after adjustment and stratification for comorbidity; CDI was associated with increased mortality, particularly among those without chronic comorbidities (IRR, 6.1; 95% CI, 5.5 to 6.8).

Chinese study finds high levels of resistance in gonorrhea -- Gonorrhea infections in China are showing decreasing susceptibility to ceftriaxone along with high levels of resistance to other antibiotics, according to a study today in the Journal of Infectious Diseases. To evaluate resistance trends in Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections in China, a team of Chinese researchers analyzed 463 isolates collected from Chinese men and women in 2021. They tested susceptibility to azithromycin, spectinomycin, penicillin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone, and cefixime and conducted whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to assess resistance markers and sequence types. High resistance to penicillin (75.2%), tetracycline (89.7%), and ciprofloxacin (98.3%) and decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone (8.9%), cefixime (14.3%), and azithromycin (8.6%) were observed among the isolates. WGS revealed that sustained transmission of clones of a global N gonorrhoeae strain (FC428) that harbors mutations in the penA-60.001 gene appears to be driving resistance to ceftriaxone, which is the last remaining recommended first-line gonorrhea treatment in China and many other countries. The study authors say the decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone and cefixime (an oral antibiotic with similar in vitro activity to ceftriaxone) far exceeds what's been observed in other countries. Furthermore, they note, the high-level resistance to penicillin, tetracycline, and ciprofloxacin suggests those antibiotics should no longer be considered for first-line treatment.

Exposure to resistant Aspergillus is widespread across UK, study finds -A study by scientists in the United Kingdom suggests at least 40% of antifungal-resistant Aspergillusinfections in UK patients are linked to environmental exposure, according to findings published today inScience Advances.For the study, a team led by researchers with Imperial College London recruited citizen scientists to collect airborne spores of Aspergillus fumigatus, a widespread environmental fungus that's found in vegetation and soils and produces spores that can be inhaled. Inhalation of A fumigatus spores can cause severe lung infections in at-risk populations, such as cystic fibrosis patients and organ transplant recipients. The aim of the study was to assess human exposure to antifungal-resistant A fumigatus, which has been rising in recent years, in part due to azole-based fungicides used in plant agriculture.From June 2018 through April 2019, 1,894 samples were collected, 919 of which yielded A fumigatus colonies. Screening of the isolates revealed that 111 (4.7%) were resistant to the agricultural fungicide tebuconazole, and further testing of 99 of those isolates found high resistance to azoles used for clinical infections, including itraconazole (86%), voriconazole (64%), and isavuconazole (83%). In addition, 51% of the A fumigatus isolates were resistant to three medical azoles, and 14% were resistant to all tested medical azoles.After conducting whole-genome sequencing of the environmental isolates and comparing them to the genomes of clinical A fumigatus isolates from UK patients, which showed shared resistance mutations, the researchers concluded that roughly 40% of antifungal-resistant A fumigatus infections in the United Kingdom are acquired from environmental exposure. They estimate a per capita cumulative annual exposure of 21 days.

Preventive TB treatment could avert close to 1 million deaths, study finds A modeling study estimates that scaling up preventive tuberculosis (TB) treatment for people with HIV/AIDS and household contacts of newly diagnosed TB patients could save nearly 850,000 lives by 2035, researchers reported yesterday inThe Lancet Global Health.To estimate the health impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of implementing short-course TB preventive treatment (TPT) and contact investigation in four populations (people living with HIV/AIDS and household contacts in three age groups [under 5 years, 5 to 14, and over 15]) in 29 high-incidence countries, researchers from Johns Hopkins University, South Africa's Aurum Institute, and Switzerland-based Unitaid developed decision-tree and state-transition models to simulate the delivery of the intervention at a country level.The team modeled scenarios in which coverage increased from 0% in 2022 to 90% in 2032 and remained at 90% through 2035. The model estimated that scaling up TPT from 2023 through 2035 would prevent 0.9 people from developing TB and 0.13 TB deaths per 100 people living with HIV/AIDs, at an incremental cost of $15 per person. For household contacts, TPT would avert 1.1 cases and 0.7 deaths per 100 contacts for $21 per person. Cost-effectiveness was most favorable for household contacts under 5 years ($22 per disability-adjusted life year [DALY] averted) and contacts aged 5 to 14 ($104 per DALY averted). If TPT is not scaled up for these populations, nearly 850,000 preventable TB deaths are projected to occur, including 700,000 among household contacts under 15.

Florida reports more cases of malaria and dengue - In its latest weekly arbovirus report, the Florida Department of Health confirmed one more local malaria case as well as one more local dengue infection. The report covers mosquito-borne illness activity for the week ending July 15.The malaria case involves a resident of Sarasota County, where the earlier locally acquired cases occurred. The new case lifts the number of local cases for the year to seven. Texas also reported a local malaria case this year, which involved someone from Cameron County.Meanwhile, the dengue illness was in Miami-Dade County, raising the state's total for the year to three. Theearlier two cases this year were in the same county.Florida eliminated local dengue transmission in the 1930s but has reported sporadic infections, often from Miami-Dade County. Localized outbreaks in Key West occurred in 2009 and 2010.

H5N1 avian flu strikes more Finnish fur farms, second fox species -The Finland Food Authority today announced that H5N1 avian flu has been detected on 5 more fur farms, including one housing a second fox species, raising the total to 10.Of the five additional farms, four are located near Kausti in the south central part of the country where two earlier outbreaks were reported. Those four farms housed blue foxes.One of the new outbreaks was reported from Evijarvi, about 25 miles south of Kausti. That farm housed silver foxes, a variant of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Most of the earlier outbreaks involved blue foxes, a variant of the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus). One of the earlier affected farms also detected the virus in minks raised at its facility. In related developments, Finnish government officials yesterday announced regulatory changes that would give them jurisdiction regarding avian flu outbreaks on fur farms, according to a statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. Today they announced safety measures for feed operators. Investigators are working to determine the source of the outbreaks, with contact with infected wild birds or their environments and contaminated food among the possibilities.The initial outbreaks at the fur farms were first reported last week, marking the country's first such events in the facilities and the world's second involving fur farms. Officials have said the virus is related to the one affecting wild birds in Finland, with detections continuing over the summer, along with mass deaths in sea gulls from different parts of the country.Increasing numbers of H5N1 detections in mammal species have raised concerns about whether the virus is changing to more easily infect humans.

Avian flu, COVID outbreaks prompt calls for shutting down fur farms over pandemic risks -- Two UK virologists yesterday called on governments to eliminate fur farming, especially mink, as a pandemic preparedness step. Thomas Peacock, PhD, and Wendy Barclay, PhD, both with Imperial College London, detailed their concerns in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.They said mink farming is more widely practiced across the world than other type of fur farming, and that some countries and regions have phased it out, mainly due to ethical concerns. However, recent SARS-CoV-2 spillover events in minks and recent H5N1 avian flu detections in foxes and minks are a reminder that fur farming can lead to the rapid spread of viruses with pandemic potential and serve as a mixing vessel for virus adaptations to humans.SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulating in mink, including strains that no longer circulate in humans, posing a risk of reintroduction, they wrote. Mink, like ferrets, have cell receptors for flu viruses that are similar to humans, and they note that a 2022 H5N1 avian flu outbreak at a Spanish mink farm yielded a virus that had at least one mammalian adaptation in the polymerase gene. "In all likelihood, we narrowly escaped a larger disaster, as the incident appears to have been contained," Peacock and Barclay wrote.Mink could provide an ample opportunity for reassortment between H5 avian flu subtypes and human-adapted flu strains, they warned. Fur farming should be in the same high-risk category as bush meat trade and live-animal markets, they concluded. "At the very least, biosecurity practices and active surveillance at fur farms must be reviewed, greatly enhanced, and closely enforced."

J&J must pay $18.8 million to California cancer patient in baby powder suit (Reuters) - Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ.N) must pay $18.8 million to a California man who said he developed cancer from exposure to its baby powder, a jury decided on Tuesday, a setback for the company as it seeks to settle thousands of similar cases over its talc-based products in U.S. bankruptcy court. The jury ruled in favor of Emory Hernandez Valadez, who filed suit last year in California state court in Oakland against J&J, seeking monetary damages. Hernandez, 24, has said he developed mesothelioma, a deadly cancer, in the tissue around his heart as a result of heavy exposure to the company's talc since childhood. The six-week trial was the first over talc that New Brunswick, New Jersey-based J&J has faced in almost two years. The jury found that Hernandez was entitled to damages to compensate him for his medical bills and pain and suffering, but declined to award punitive damages against the company. Hernandez will not be able to collect the judgment in the foreseeable future, thanks to a bankruptcy court order freezing most litigation over J&J's talc. J&J vice president of litigation Erik Haas said in a statement that the company would appeal the verdict, calling it "irreconcilable with the decades of independent scientific evaluations confirming Johnson's Baby Powder is safe, does not contain asbestos and does not cause cancer."

Fire at Chemical Plant Causes Multiple Explosions - A fire at a Louisiana chemical plant triggered explosions that shook homes several miles away and sent flames and smoke billowing into the air, prompting emergency officials to urge a few hundred nearby residents to shelter indoors for several hours and to turn off their air conditioners.Flames erupted late Friday at Dow Chemical’s plant on the Mississippi River near Plaquemine, south of Baton Rouge. Iberville Parish officials told The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate that the fire started in an area of the plant that handles ethylene oxide, a flammable and toxic chemical.The parish’s sheriff, Bret Stassi, said no one was injured and that the company had accounted for all its workers.Residents of roughly 350 households within a half-mile (0.80 kilometers) of the plant were told to shelter inside for several hours overnight. As Dow Chemical and environmental officials monitored the air for hazardous materials, emergency officials urged sheltering residents to shut off their air conditioners and ceiling fans.The Iberville Parish Council said in a statement early Saturday that no hazards had been detected and that people could leave their homes. “Crews have substantially reduced the fire and are working to fully extinguish it,” Dow Chemical said in a statement Saturday. The company said it was continuing to monitor air quality along with state environmental officials and a third-party contractor.Even short exposure to ethylene oxide can cause lung injuries, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the U.S. Occupational Health and Safety Administration, which says the chemical has also been linked to cancer in people with long-term exposure.The sheriff told WBRZ-TV that six explosions were detected at the plant around 9:30 p.m. Friday. Tall flames could be seen rising from the site, with thick moke overhead.Residents felt their homes shake in Baton Rouge, about 15 miles (24 kilometers) away, WAFB-TV reported.

Chemical fire in Louisiana: Shelter-in-place ordered for residents in Plaquemine following six explosions at plant - A fire at a Louisiana chemical plant triggered explosions that shook homes several miles away and sent flames and smoke billowing into the air, prompting emergency officials to urge a few hundred nearby residents to shelter indoors for several hours and to turn off their air conditioners. Flames erupted late Friday at Dow Chemical's plant on the Mississippi River near Plaquemine, south of Baton Rouge. Iberville Parish officials told The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate that the fire started in an area of the plant that handles ethylene oxide, a flammable and toxic chemical. The parish's sheriff, Bret Stassi, said no one was injured, and the company had accounted for all its workers. Residents of roughly 350 households within a half-mile (0.80 kilometers) of the plant were told to shelter inside for several hours overnight. As Dow Chemical and environmental officials monitored the air for hazardous materials, emergency officials urged sheltering residents to shut off their air conditioners and ceiling fans. The Iberville Parish Council said in a statement early Saturday that no hazards had been detected and that people could leave their homes. "Crews have substantially reduced the fire and are working to fully extinguish it," Dow Chemical said in a statement Saturday. The company said it continued monitoring air quality along with state environmental officials and a third-party contractor. Even short exposure to ethylene oxide can cause lung injuries, vomiting, and diarrhea, according to the U.S. Occupational Health and Safety Administration, which says the chemical has also been linked to cancer in people with long-term exposure. The sheriff told WBRZ-TV that six explosions were detected at the plant around 9:30 p.m. Friday. Tall flames could be seen rising from the site, with thick smoke overhead. Residents felt their homes shake in Baton Rouge, about 15 miles (24 kilometers) away, WAFB-TV reported. Kenneth Haydel said he was with family members near the plant when they heard several loud explosions a few seconds apart. "We looked up in the sky, and the whole sky was lit up orange," Haydel said.

Homes evacuated following CSX train derailment near Philadelphia -- Residents were evacuated from their homes in Whitemarsh Township, Pennsylvania early Monday morning following a nearby CSX train derailment. Company officials said 16 of 40 cars derailed on Norfolk Southern tracks, including one carrying hazardous tetrachloroethylene, at approximately 4:50 a.m. in an area of Montgomery County that is 14 miles from downtown Philadelphia. A CSX statement said, “There is no indication of any leaks or spills of hazardous materials and there are no injuries to the crew of the train.” Norfolk Southern also released a statement saying, “There is no risk to the public.” Hazmat crews were called to the scene before police announced that there was no threat to the public, since the car carrying the tetrachloroethylene, an industrial chemical used in dry cleaning, was located intact. Crews from both railroad companies were on site to begin cleanup efforts. CSX spokesperson Sherrie Bowman told news media that the cause of the derailment appeared to be a sinkhole stemming from weather-related issues. One resident who was evacuated told CBS News Philadelphia that being told to leave her home at the crack of dawn was “alarming.” The woman, who was evacuated along with her daughter, said, “It all happened really fast. We all don't have shoes on.” She added that she did not realize how serious the situation was until seeing all the lights, helicopters and fire trucks in the neighborhood. “Right as you hear the door at 5:30 in the morning,” she said, “it’s a little shocking. And yeah, it was just scary. First thought for me always goes to my family and friends.” The CBS News report said officials reported that some silicone pellets were found leaking from the cars, “but they don't pose any danger to the public.” Other news reports said that five of the cars contained urea, a liquid fertilizer that is hazardous if it comes into prolonged contact with skin. Once the evacuation order was lifted, by 9:00 a.m. Monday morning, railroad officials and local law enforcement made it clear that the number one priority was getting the trains running again. Speaking of the railroad corporations, Christopher Ward, chief of the Whitemarsh Police Department, said, “It is their intention, due to the commerce on this line, to try to have the line back up and running, I think the last check was by Wednesday evening.” The Whitemarsh Township derailment comes a little more than five months after the disastrous train crash in East Palestine, Ohio on February 3, in which 50 cars derailed, 20 of which contained hazardous material, including vinyl chloride. A decision was made by railroad officials to set the cars containing vinyl chloride on fire three days after the train wreck, claiming it was done to prevent an explosion. However, the “controlled release and burn” lasted for two days, contaminated the soil and ground water, and resulted in the release into the air of a massive chemical cloud of hydrogen chloride and phosgene, which hung over the area and poisoned the local population. A A subsequent investigation by the federal government determined that the intentional burning was unnecessary, since there was no danger of an explosion.

Train derailment in northern Montana spills freight, but hazmat car safe (AP) — A train derailment in northern Montana spilled freight and left cars tangled up along a major east-west railroad corridor but caused no injuries. The accident comes less than a month after a railroad bridge collapse in southern Montana sent tanks cars with oil products plunging into the Yellowstone River, spilling molten sulfur and up to 250 tons of hot asphalt. The latest accident involved a BNSF Railway traveling Friday at 5:39 p.m. near the Milk River east of the small town of Havre. Eleven cars derailed and the cause was under investigation, said BNSF spokesperson Lena Kent. Cleanup and repair work continued Saturday as the line was reopened to service. One car hauling hazardous materials — paint thinner — derailed but did not spill, said Amanda Frickel with Hill County Disaster and Emergency Services. Cars carrying cake mix, napkins, carrots and other consumer goods broke open and spilled, she said. Some of the derailed cars carried shipping containers stacked in pairs, and officials initially estimated more than two dozen cars were involved. Railroads are largely self-regulating, but they’re under growing pressure from lawmakers and unions over safety lapses often traced to the condition of tracks and equipment. In 2021, an Amtrak train derailed about 50 miles (80 kilometers) west of Friday’s freight train accident. Three people were killed, and dozens were injured. Investigators in February disclosed that the BNSF-owned track was bent along a curve at the Amtrak derailment site. The problem worsened as freight trains traveled through the area before the crash.

Analysis Shows High Levels of Hazardous Chemicals Following East Palestine Derailment. (video) NBC reports that a team of scientists discovered high levels of a chemical irritant near the site where a Norfolk Southern train derailed in East Palestine, Ohio, in February. . NBC reports that a team of scientists discovered high levels of a chemical irritant near the site where a Norfolk Southern train derailed in East Palestine, Ohio, in February. . Following the derailment, a team from Carnegie Mellon and Texas A&M universities searched the area for harmful levels of air pollution. . A primary concern was vinyl chloride, which the train operator intentionally burned following the derailment and health experts raised alarms about. A primary concern was vinyl chloride, which the train operator intentionally burned following the derailment and health experts raised alarms about. Weeks after the crash, acrolein was detected near the derailment site up to six times higher than levels recorded prior to the incident, according to the study. Local residents had been told it was safe to return home on February 8 by both local and federal officials. . Local residents had been told it was safe to return home on February 8 by both local and federal officials. . Researchers warn that long-term exposure to high levels of acrolein could be a health concern. . NBC reports that low levels of acrolein exposure can result in slow breathing and a burning sensation in the nose and throat. . Long-term exposure in animals results in damage to the lining of the lungs, abnormal lesions and nasal tumors. . Researchers were reportedly surprised by the findings, as acrolein was not among the chemicals spilled or burned after the derailment. Researchers were reportedly surprised by the findings, as acrolein was not among the chemicals spilled or burned after the derailment. While researchers have yet to determine how acrolein was present at the site, they believe it could have been a byproduct of other spilled chemicals mixing.

11 mustangs die in US roundup in Nevada caught on video, showing horses with broken necks (AP) — Nearly a dozen wild horses have died in the first 10 days of a big mustang roundup in Nevada, deaths that a Las Vegas congresswoman is calling tragic proof of the urgent need to outlaw helicopters to capture the animals on federal land.The 11 deaths so far include five young foals, four horses with broken necks and a stallion with a snapped rear leg that was chased by a helicopter and horseback rider as it tried to flee on three legs for 35 minutes before it was euthanized, according to witnesses.The horse that broke the leg jumping over a trap fence last Wednesday was a lead Palomino stallion called “Mr. Sunshine” by those who’d watched him roam wild over the years southeast of Elko.A longtime observer and defender of the mustangs caught the animal’s struggle on video.“It made me physically ill to see what was done to that beautiful stallion I have known for years,” said Laura Leigh, the founder of Nevada-based nonprofit organization Wild Horse Education.Leigh, who’s been fighting roundups in court for more than a decade and advocates ending them altogether, said the contracted wranglers were trying to pressure the mustangs into the temporary trap coral when the horse leaped out and broke the leg.“He tried to buck off the searing pain and then struggled on three legs. He was then pursued to the far side of the valley and shot. The incident took longer than 30 minutes to resolve,” she said. “These barbaric, cruel, intentional acts must end.”

Pod of 55 pilot whales die after being stranded on a beach in Scotland (AP) — A pod of 55 pilot whales have died after they were found washed ashore on a beach in Scotland in the worst mass whale stranding in the area, marine experts said Monday.Marine rescuers, the coast guard and police were called to Traigh Mhor beach on the Isle of Lewis in northwest Scotland after receiving reports that dozens of the mammals were in difficulty there early Sunday.The British Divers Marine Life Rescue found that only 15 of the whales — a mixture of adults and calves — were still alive, and attempted to refloat two of the more active animals that were low down in the water. But by Sunday afternoon rescue teams decided that the remaining whales should be euthanized on welfare grounds, after considering the shallow beach, rough wave conditions and how long the whales had been out of the water.The charity said the whole pod may have followed a female whale onto the beach when she had problems giving birth.“Pilot whales are notorious for their strong social bonds, so often when one whale gets into difficulty and strands, the rest follow,” it said in a statement. Experts will begin carrying out post-mortem work Monday to determine what caused the whales’ death..“In terms of the number of casualty animals, this is the biggest one we’ve had,” he told the BBC. Experts will take samples and data from some of the whales, and the bodies will be taken to a landfill site and buried after the post-mortem is complete, he added.

Vanishing whale's decline worse than previously thought, feds say (AP) — A review of the status of a vanishing species of whale found that the animal’s population is in worse shape than previously thought, federal ocean regulators said Monday.The North Atlantic right whale numbers less than 350, and it has been declining in population for several years. The federal government declared the whale’s decline an “unusual mortality event,” which means an unexpected and significant die-off, in 2017.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released new data that 114 of the whales have been documented as dead, seriously injured or sub-lethally injured or sick since the start of the mortality event. That is an increase of 16 whales since the previous estimate released earlier this year. The agency recently completed a review of the whales using photographs from researchers and surveys to create the new estimate, said Andrea Gomez, a spokesperson for NOAA.“Additional cases will continue to be reviewed, and animals will be added if appropriate, as more information is obtained,” Gomez said.Thirty-six of the 114 whales included in the estimate had died, NOAA documents state. The agency cautioned that only about a third of right whale deaths are documented, so the total number of dead or injured animals could be much higher.Right whales are found off the Atlantic coast of the U.S. They are vulnerable to collisions with large ships and entanglement in commercial fishing gear. The federal government has worked to craft stricter rules to protect the whales from both threats.Commercial fishing and shipping interests have both vowed to fight stricter protections. A federal appeals court sided with fishermen last month after they filed a complaint that proposed new restrictions could put them out of business.The new data illustrate how dire the situation is for the whales, said Sarah Sharp, an animal rescue veterinarian with International Fund for Animal Welfare. The number of injured animals is especially significant because injured whales are less likely to reproduce, Sharp said.

Rapid rainfall overwhelms Pennsylvania storm sewers, causing fatal floods, U.S. - A severe flash flood caused by very heavy rainfall resulted in five confirmed deaths and left two children missing in Pennsylvania on Saturday, July 15, 2023. The deluge, measuring between 152 to 178 mm (6 – 7 inches) within 45 minutes, was said to have overwhelmed storm sewers, brooks, and streams. Expanding on the severity of the situation, Fire Chief Tim Brewer of Upper Makefield reported that the flooding began around 17:00 LT and rapidly escalated. Brewer emphasized the speed and volume of the rainfall, noting it as a new benchmark for severe weather in the area, surpassing even the devastation of Hurricane Ida in 2021. The victims, all adults, were among several individuals trapped in their vehicles on the flooded Washington Crossing Road. Of the eleven cars on the road, three were swept away by the floodwaters. Eight people were rescued from their vehicles, with two additional individuals rescued from Houghs Creek. As the situation unfolded, the two missing individuals, a 9-month-old boy and a 2-year-old girl from the same family, were still being searched for by Sunday afternoon. The impact of the rainfall was not limited to Pennsylvania. States across the Northeast, including Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, and others experienced heavy rainfall, leading to flash flood warnings. An estimated 127 mm (5 inches) of rain fell in less than two hours on the east end of Long Island. In the New York metropolitan area, up to 50 mm (2 inches) of rain was forecast for Sunday afternoon. Governor Kathy Hochul of New York issued a warning about the instability of the weather conditions, emphasizing the dangers of flash flooding. Air travel was also affected with flight disruptions reported at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey and Kennedy International Airport in New York. Maryland officials also warned of expected “life-threatening flash flooding.” Despite the efforts and warnings, the National Weather Service cautioned that heavy rainfall and flash flooding remained a concern for southeastern Pennsylvania. A flash flood warning was still in effect for several counties on Sunday morning, with more rainfall and storms anticipated throughout the day.

Children lost in flooding as US endures extreme weather, from smoke up north to heat in the West (AP) — Pennsylvania authorities drew on 100 people, drones and cadaver dogs Monday in their search for two missing children whose family’s car was swept away in flash flooding that ravaged the East Coast over the weekend. Other parts of the country endured threateningly high temperatures and severe air pollution from Canadian wildfires.In eastern Pennsylvania, authorities described Monday’s search for missing Matilda Sheils, 2, and her 9-month-old brother Conrad Sheils as a “massive undertaking” along a creek that drains into the Delaware River. The children are members of a Charleston, South Carolina, family that was visiting relatives and friends when they got caught in a flash flood Saturday.The children’s father, Jim Sheils, grabbed their 4-year-old son, while the children’s mother, Katie Seley, and a grandmother grabbed the other children, said Upper Makefield Township Fire Chief Tim Brewer. Sheils and his son made it to safety, but Seley and the grandmother were swept away.The grandmother survived, but Seley, 32, was among five killed by the floods.“A wall of water came to them; they did not go into the water,” Brewer said of the Sheils family.Scott Ellis, an uncle to the missing children, described the family as “utterly devastated.”Monsignor Michael Picard of St. Andrew Roman Catholic Church, where family members are parishioners, said he spoke with the grandparents Sunday.“No matter how long I’ve been doing this — over and over and over, many, many years — you find yourself still helpless and without words to make people feel more comfortable,” Picard said. “And so you just simply pray with them for a few minutes.”

Phoenix heat wave breaks two more records, likely to set more - Phoenix broke two more heat records on Monday morning as warmer conditions continued into the start of the week and seemed unlikely to end anytime soon, according to the National Weather Service.The low temperature recorded at Sky Harbor Airport on Monday morning was 95 degrees, breaking the previous record warm low of 93 degrees, set for the first time in 2003, and marking the eighth day in a row with low temperatures in the 90s. The record for the longest number of days in a row with lows at or above 90 degrees was seven days, set for the first time in 2012.According to meteorologist Matthew Hirsch with the weather service in Phoenix, the intensity of the heat wave is on track to tie another record by Monday afternoon and break it by Tuesday.The city's record for consecutive temperatures of 110 degrees or above is 18 days, set in 1974. Sunday marked the 17th day in a row that hit 110 degrees, recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. Phoenix-area temperatures are expected to stay between 115 and 118 degrees through this weekend, at least — "easily" breaking the record by several days, Hirsch said."It looks like (the heat wave) is going to continue for quite some time," Hirsch said. "Take this heat event seriously, even if you're acclimated. This event is different from others just because it has been so prolonged, so we're urging people to take it seriously, stay hydrated and stay indoors as much as possible."Some relief from the heat could come with monsoon storms expected to hit with chances of up to 15% for each day this week, mostly southeast of Phoenix. Although rainfall in central Phoenix is unlikely, Hirsch said the storms could produce strong winds that bring a bit of cooler air into the area.The soaring temperatures have raised concerns among Phoenix's unhoused population, which represents half of the heat-associated deaths recorded in Maricopa County so far this year.

Dust storm rolls through parts of Maricopa, Pinal counties — A haboob is rolling through the Valley on Monday evening as storms pop up throughout Arizona.The National Weather Services issued a special weather statement for the Phoenix area due to a strong outflow that’s expected to move through the area.Gusty winds of 30-40 mph and blowing dust will affect portions of Maricopa and Pinal counties through 8:45 p.m.An SPS has been issued for the Phoenix area due to a strong outflow that is expected to move through the area. Gusty winds 30-40 mph and blowing dust are the main impacts as this feature continues to move to the northwest over the next few hours. #azwx https://t.co/GIH68fizN6 — NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) July 18, 2023 The Arizona Department of Transportation said the dust storm is moving toward US 60 in the East Valley. Storms fired up in Tucson on Monday evening producing hail, gusty winds, heavy rain and blowing dust. This is thethird latest date in the monsoon season for recording measurable rainfall in the Tucson area, according to the National Weather Service. ADOT advises drivers to never drive into a dust storm and followed these tips if they’re unable to exit the highway.

Phoenix sweltered from heat that will break record for US cities (AP) — Phoenix’s relentless streak of dangerously hot days was finally poised to smash a record for major U.S. cities on Tuesday, the 19th straight day the desert city was to see temperatures soar to 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 C) or more.Nighttime has offered little relief from the brutal temperatures. Phoenix’s low of 95 F (35 C) on Monday was its highest overnight low ever, toppling the previous record of 93 F (33.8 C) set in 2009. It was the eighth straight day of temperatures not falling below 90 F (32.2 C), another record.It’s “pretty miserable when you don’t have any recovery overnight,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Matt Salerno.The length of Phoenix’s heat wave is notable even during a summer in which much of the southern United States and the world as a whole has been cooking in record temperatures, something scientists say is stoked by climate change.What’s going on in a metropolitan area known as the Valley of the Sun is far worse than a short spike in the thermometer, experts said, and it poses a health danger to many.“Long-term exposure to heat is more difficult to withstand than single hot days, especially if it is not cooling off at night enough to sleep well,” said Katharine Jacobs, director of the Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions at the University of Arizona.“This will likely be one of the most notable periods in our health record in terms of deaths and illness,” said David Hondula, chief heat officer for the City of Phoenix. “Our goal is for that not to be the case.”The last time Phoenix didn’t reach 110 F (43.3 C) was June 29, when it hit 108 (42.2 C). The record of 18 days above 110 that was tied Monday was first set in 1974, and it appeared destined to be shattered with temperatures forecast above that through the end of the week.

‘It’s unbearable’: Phoenix roasts at 110-plus degrees, with no end in sight - Several million heat-tolerant Arizonans spent the weekend in air-conditioned semi-darkness, drawing their curtains shut as temperatures soared to nearly 120 degrees in one of America’s largest metro areas. Play parks, hiking trails and golf courses became heat hazards. Dogs panted heavily in the shade. Songbirds did not sing. David Hondula, the city’s director of heat response and mitigation, called the coming days a “time for maximum community vigilance” as the National Weather Service extended an “excessive heat warning” for south central Arizona through Wednesday night. Advertisement Monday will likely bring the 18th consecutive day of temperatures exceeding 110 degrees Fahrenheit in the Valley of the Sun, and the 34th consecutive day of at least 100 degrees. The unrelenting hot weather stems from a stubborn heat dome trapping more than 110 million Americans from Southern California across the bottom third of the country. Its epicenter is Phoenix, but extreme heat extends well into Texas and the Gulf states. NOAA reported more than 25 local record-breaking temperatures in Texas on Friday, with the heat continuing Saturday and Sunday. The heat wave comes amid an unusual string of wildfires, floods and other climate disasters around the world, from forest fires in Canada to record flooding in India. All coincide with what scientists recently documented as the warmest days in Earth’s recorded history on July 3 and 4, extending what was the hottest month in recorded history in June. Experts last week observed exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in shallow waters off Florida Bay. One NOAA weather buoy registered near 97 degrees Fahrenheit, hot enough for coral to begin bleaching. At the same time, rain bombs were falling from New York to Vermont, creating widespread flooding from what experts called a 100- to 500-year storm. Christopher Hewitt, the World Meteorological Organization’s director of climate services, called the string of extreme events “uncharted territory” and “worrying news for the planet.” On Tuesday, Phoenix could break a nearly half-century-old record for consecutive days at 110 degrees or higher. But it may not end there, with experts predicting the streak could continue for at least a week longer. Meteorologists were hoping to see a break from seasonal monsoonal rains, but there are no storms in the immediate forecast. Phoenix isn’t alone. Most of America’s large desert cities — from Las Vegas and Reno, Nev., to Salt Lake City and El Paso, Texas — could become among the hottest on earth, climate experts say, rivaling places like Baghdad, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Cairo. “For 16 U.S. cities, their 2100 summer temperatures have no equivalent on the same continent,” the nonprofit Climate Central said in a 2022 analysis of summer temperature shifts in 242 urban areas. Phoenix will be among the highest gainers, with an average 7.2-degree increase in summer highs by 2100. Heat has killed at least 12 people in Maricopa County since April. An additional 55 deaths — most occurring since mid-June — are suspected to be heat-related, according to county health records. In 2022, the county reported 425 heat deaths, up from 338 in 2021. The trend is expected to continue with the upward creep in annual 110-degree days, which could amount to six weeks by midcentury.

Can people adapt to extreme heat? - Broiling Phoenix is waiting to cool down. The desert metropolis has sweltered through 21 days of temperatures that reached at least 110 degrees Fahrenheit, blowing by an 18-day record set in 1974. Downtown streets are nearly deserted. No one stops in a tree grove planted on a hot plaza. As millions of people huddle indoors amid the region’s dangerous heat wave, the intensity and persistence of the hot streak raises questions about what can be done to protect people as climate change promises to make Phoenix — and regions around the world — hotter and hotter. One thing is clear: Adapting to blazing temperatures is different than adapting to hurricanes, wildfires and floods. People can run from hurricanes, elevate homes in flood zones and buy wildfire insurance. Heat is different. It can last for weeks, blanket large areas and result in more deaths. “We’re at a moment where we have to think about this problem in new ways: first, in the near term, helping people get through emergencies like the one happening in Phoenix,” “But also in the long term. We have to help communities get prepared for what’s coming because it’s only going to get hotter and more dangerous.” Climate adaptation to heat comes in many forms — from opening cooling centers and extending the hours of public pools, to girding electric grids for peak air-conditioning demand. It can be complicated and expensive, requiring major infrastructure investment. Experts say the problem is most acute in urban areas with heat islands and older, less efficient housing, much of which was built without central air conditioning. Risks are also growing in normally cool climates like the Pacific Northwest, where nearly 300 people died in Oregon and Washington two years ago when the region sat under an oppressive heat dome for more than a week. “This is no longer a southern thing — this is an everywhere thing,” Shickman said.

Homes become 'air fryers' in Phoenix heat, people ration AC due to cost Temperatures have peaked at or above 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) the entire month of July in Phoenix. Air conditioning, which made modern Phoenix even possible, is a lifeline. When a cloudless sky combines with outdoor temperatures over 100 F, your house turns into an “air fryer” or “broiler,” as the roof absorbs powerful heat and radiates it downward, said Jonathan Bean, co-director of the Institute for Energy Solutions at the University of Arizona. Bean knows this not only from his research, he also experienced it firsthand this weekend when his air conditioner broke. “This level of heat that we are having in Phoenix right now is enormously dangerous, particularly for people who either don’t have air conditioning or cannot afford to operate their air conditioner,” said Evan Mallen, a senior analyst for Georgia Institute of Technology’s Urban Climate Lab. Phoenix officials ask judge for more time in clearing downtown camp of homeless people Yet some are cutting back on AC, trying to bear the heat, afraid of the high electricity bills that will soon arrive. Camille Rabany, 29, has developed her own system to keep herself and her 10-month-old Saint Bernard Rigley cool during the Arizona heat wave. Through trial and error, Rabany found that 83 F is a temperature she is willing to tolerate to keep her utility bill down. By tracking the on-peak and off-peak schedule of her utility, Arizona Public Service, with the help of her NEST smart thermostat, Rabany keeps her home that hot from 4 to 7 p.m., the most expensive hours. She keeps fans running and has a cooling bed for Rigley, and they both try to get by until the utility’s official peak hours pass. “Those are the hours that I have it at the hottest I’m willing to have it because I have a dog,” she said. Last month, Rabany said her utility bill was around $150. Emily Schmidt’s home cooling strategy in Tempe, Ariz. also centers around her dog. Air conditioning is “constantly a topic of conversation,” with her partner, too, she said. “Sometimes I wish I could have it cooler, but we have to balance saving money and making sure the house isn’t too hot for our pets.”

Power demand breaks record in Texas again during heat wave (Reuters) - Power demand in Texas hit a record high for a second straight day on Tuesday as homes and businesses cranked up air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the grid for more than 26 million customers representing about 90% of the state's power load, has said it has enough resources available to meet soaring demand. Texas residents have worried about extreme weather since a deadly winter storm in February 2021 left millions without power, water and heat for days as ERCOT struggled to prevent a grid collapse after the closure of an unusually large amount of generation. After setting 11 demand records last summer, ERCOT said usage hit a preliminary 82,592 megawatts (MW) at 1800 Central Time (2300 GMT), which would top the grid's previous all-time high of 81,911 MW set on July 17. That is the fifth record high in ERCOT this summer. One megawatt can power around 1,000 U.S. homes on a typical day, but only about 200 homes on a hot summer day in Texas. Meteorologists at AccuWeather forecast high temperatures in Houston, the biggest city in Texas, would hit at least 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 Celsius) every day from July 17-21. That compares with a normal high of 94 F for this time of year.

U.S. hit by blazing heat, smoky air, tropical storm all at once (Reuters) - The United States is experiencing with a range of unusual weather, from a tropical storm in Hawaii to record-breaking heat across its Sun Belt states and poor air quality in many areas as smoke from Canadian wildfires wafts across the border. As the United States and China, the world's biggest polluters, tried to reach agreement to cut carbon emissions, Americans experienced a sampler of the extreme weather events that scientists say are likely to become more commonplace under fossil fuel-driven climate change. A massive heat dome parked over the southern and western United States is keeping tens of millions of Americans under extreme heat advisories. The city of Phoenix, Arizona, on Tuesday exceeded 110 degrees F (43 C) for the 19th day in a row, breaking its all-time record of 18 straight days over 110. Arizona's largest utility reported that electricity demand was at an all-time high of 8,191 megawatts (MW) on July 15, mirroring trends in Texas. Central Texas, an area stretching from San Antonio north to Dallas, is forecast to reach 105 degrees or higher over the next two days. The hottest spot in the United States on Tuesday is expected to be Death Valley, California, where temperatures at the visitors center at Death Valley National Park are expected to reach 122 degrees F (50 C). The all-time high for Death Valley is 134 degrees, which is also the hottest temperature ever recorded on the Earth's surface. Smoke from Canadian wildfires is still drifting across the United States, causing unhealthy air quality on Tuesday in areas as far-flung as Yosemite National Park in California; Conway, New Hampshire; and - perhaps fittingly - the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennessee, according to the AirNow.gov website, which tracks pollution.Winds about 10,000 to 15,000 feet above the ground and other weather patterns can move the smoke 500 miles a day, dispersing it widely over the country, said Stan Benjamin, senior research associate at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Hawaii's Big Island was under a tropical storm warning early Tuesday morning as it braced for Tropical Storm Calvin, expected to bring as much as 8 inches of rain and wind gusts of 40 mph, the National Weather Service (NWS) said.Nearly 5,000 miles to the northeast, in Vermont, a flood watch was in effect for central parts of the state including the capital, Montpelier, that were inundated by high water after torrential rainfall last week. Thunderstorm activity on Tuesday afternoon could bring 1 to 2 more inches of rain per hour to the area, where soil conditions are already saturated, the NWS said, raising the risk of more flash flooding.

Heat Coming at Wrong Time for Corn Belt - It has been a relatively active and calm period in the Corn Belt during the last several weeks. Bouts of milder air temperatures and semi-frequent rainfall have led to overall decent rainfall during the last 30 days. There have been some winners and losers in the precipitation department, but overall it has been a nice turnaround from the dry conditions from late spring into early summer.This pattern is about to change again, toward one of more heat and less-frequent precipitation for next week. How long this pattern lasts into August will be telling, and have a significant impact on corn and soybean production for the 2023 season. A heat ridge over the South, which has given rise to record temperatures from the Southwest through Texas and heat advisories and warnings across the southern tier of the country all week will do some shifting. During the next few days, the ridge will align more into the western United States and even poke up into Western Canada and spread out into the middle of the U.S. early next week. Temperatures will soar above normal with many locations in the 90s across the Corn Belt and some 100-degree readings likely in areas from the Northern Plains down through Texas. Triple-digit readings may be more sporadic than models are forecasting at the moment, but the heat will be on for next week. There are questions on the extent of the heat, though. States west of the Mississippi River and across the Gulf Coast are likely to be intense, but just how far east through the Corn Belt those 90-degree readings will extend is still to be determined. Ohio and Michigan are least likely to see the extreme heat of farther west as temperatures should more likely be in the 80s Fahrenheit most of the week, but a few days approaching or exceeding 90 F will be possible. High afternoon temperatures will not be the only issue, but warm overnight lows will also be a concern. Morning lows in the 70s F as far north as Nebraska to the southern Great Lakes will not allow for much relief overnight.Part of the question about the extent of the heat will be strength of the heat ridge and potential for precipitation. The northern rim is usually a good spot to produce clusters of thunderstorms or even some systems. With a trough in the Gulf of Alaska expected to send some energy through Canada, we should see at least two systems move through the Canadian Prairies. Whether or not that means widespread precipitation in that region is still in the air as well. Models are not keen on too much precipitation over southern Alberta or Saskatchewan, but produce some as the disturbances ride over the top of the ridge across Manitoba and into the Great Lakes. As long as there are disturbances moving over the top of the ridge, there will be significant threats for severe thunderstorm clusters, bow echoes, and derechos.

Canada's wildfires blacken thousands of square miles, upend lives (photos) Canada’s worst-ever wildfire season has choked much of North America withdangerous smoke for months, coupling with deadly heat around the globe in a summer that’s focusing the world’s attention on the perils of climate change.By this week, some 42,000 square miles (109,000 square kilometers) had burned — an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Virginia. About 900 fires were actively burning, with only about one-fifth considered under control.Aerial views gave a glimpse of the fire’s sometimes hopscotching path across Canada’s rugged terrain — thousands of blackened trees near green stands as yet untouched by flame. The wildfires are disproportionately affecting Canada’s Indigenous communities, who make up a much larger share of evacuees than their share of the population. That includes members of the East Prairie Métis Settlement in northern Alberta, where 14 homes were destroyed in an early May fire and almost 300 people were evacuated.Some on the front lines found time for joy amidst the hard work of fighting the flames. Fire crews from South Africa lightened the mood on the ground and on social media by dancing, singing and chanting before going to work in the woods. It’s the fifth year that men and women from that nation’s wildland fire agency have helped out in Canada.Humans aren’t the only creatures affected by fire. Wild animals are often displaced as well, though it wasn’t clear whether that was the case for a bear nosing its way through unburned woods in British Columbia, a few miles from the massive Donnie Creek fire.

How extreme heat takes a toll on the mind and body, according to experts — The Southwestern U.S. is bracing for another week of blistering temperatures, with forecasters on Monday extending an excessive heat warning through the weekend for Arizona’s most populated area, and alerting residents in parts of Nevada and New Mexico to stay indoors.The metro Phoenix area is on track to tie or to break a record set in the summer of 1974 for the most consecutive days with the high temperature at or above 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43 Celsius). Even the morning low temperatures are tying historic records.Along the U.S.-Mexico border, federal agents reported that extreme temperatures over the weekend contributed to 45 people being rescued and another 10 dying. With so many consecutive days of excessive heat, forecasters, physicians and local health officials throughout the Southwest are recommending that people limit their outdoor exposure and know the warning signs of heat illness.From heavy sweating and dizziness to muscle spasms and even vomiting, experts say heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely to become more common. In coming decades, the U.S. is expected to experience higher temperatures and more intense heat waves.Heat stroke is the most serious heat-related illness and happens when the body loses its ability to sweat.The skin gets hot and red, and the pulse quickens as the person’s body temperature climbs to 103 F (39 C) or higher. Headaches set in, along with nausea, confusion and even fainting.Jon Femling, an emergency medicine physician and scientist at the University of New Mexico, said the body tries to compensate by pumping blood to the skin as a way to cool off. And the more a person breathes, the more they lose fluids, becoming increasingly dehydrated.Important electrolytes like sodium and potassium also can be lost when sweating.“So one of the first things that happens is, your muscles start to feel tired as your body starts to shunt away,” he said. “And then you can start to have organ damage where your kidneys don’t work, your spleen, your liver. If things get really bad, then you start to not be perfusing your brain the same way.”Experts say it’s important to recognize the signs of heat stroke in others, as people may not realize the danger they’re in because of an altered mental state that may involve confusion.In the case of heat stroke, experts suggest calling 911 and trying to lower the person’s body temperature with cool, wet cloths or a cool bath.With heat exhaustion, the body can become cold and clammy. Other signs include heavy sweating, nausea, muscle cramps, weakness and dizziness. Experts say the best thing to do is to move to a cool place, loosen clothing and sip some water.

Tornado damages Pfizer plant in North Carolina as scorching heat and floods sock other parts of US (AP) — A tornado heavily damaged a major Pfizer pharmaceutical plant in North Carolina on Wednesday, while torrential rain flooded communities in Kentucky and an area from California to South Florida endured more scorching heat. Pfizer confirmed that the large manufacturing complex was damaged by a twister that touched down shortly after midday near Rocky Mount, but said in an email that it had no reports of serious injuries. A later company statement said all employees were safely evacuated and accounted for. Parts of roofs were ripped open atop its massive buildings. The Pfizer plant stores large quantities of medicine that were tossed about, said Nash County Sheriff Keith Stone. “I’ve got reports of 50,000 pallets of medicine that are strewn across the facility and damaged through the rain and the wind,” Stone said. The plant produces anesthesia and other drugs as well as nearly 25% of all sterile injectable medications used in U.S. hospitals, Pfizer said on its website. Erin Fox, senior pharmacy director at University of Utah Health, said the damage “will likely lead to long-term shortages while Pfizer works to either move production to other sites or rebuilds.” The National Weather Service said in a tweet that the damage was consistent with an EF3 tornado with wind speeds up to 150 mph (240 kph). The Edgecombe County Sheriff’s Office, where part of Rocky Mount is located, said on Facebook that they had reports of three people injured in the tornado, and that two of them had life-threatening injuries. A preliminary report from neighboring Nash County said 13 people were injured and 89 structures were damaged, WRAL-TV reported. Three homes owned by Brian Varnell and his family members in the nearby Dortches area were damaged. He told the news outlet he is thankful they are all alive. His sister and her children hid in their home’s laundry room.

A Kentucky town still recovering from a tornado hit with record floods --Slow-moving, torrential rainstorms dropped what was likely the heaviest rainfall in Kentucky’s history Wednesday morning, sweeping water into homes, stranding vehicles and inundating entire neighborhoods, while also deluging parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Among the communities hit hardest was Mayfield, Ky., where residents were still making a long-term recovery from a violent tornado that killed 57 people on Dec. 10, 2021. Those involved with rebuilding efforts said that while it was too early to know the extent of the flood damage, it looked like it would have some overlap with the tornado’s devastation. “You can feel the emotions connected to this right now,” said Pastor Stephen Boyken of His House Ministries in Mayfield. Radar estimates suggest the rain fell at an intensity approaching a “1,000-year” flood, with a 0.1 percent chance of occurring in the region in a given year. But in much of the country, including Kentucky, flood threats have become far more serious than federal flood maps suggest, according to First Street Foundation data analyzed by The Washington Post. In Graves County, Ky., which includes Mayfield, rain totals that once could be expected to fall once a century on average are now more than twice as likely to occur, according to the data. Nearly a foot of rain fell in parts of Graves County, prompting the National Weather Service to declare it would likely set a new Kentucky record for precipitation within a 24-hour period — 11.28 inches, based on a preliminary report. The previous record, set March 1, 1997, was 10.48 inches. Western Kentucky was the area hardest hit, but flash-flood warnings stretched from Cape Girardeau, Mo., and Carbondale, Ill., south through Paducah, Ky., and Paris, Tenn., about 85 miles west of Nashville Wednesday morning. Around Mayfield, social media photos and video showed, floodwaters were several feet deep and vehicles were submerged. In some nearby areas, the high water had washed out roads. Advertisement “Water rescues are taking place in some areas due to people driving into flooded areas,” the National Weather Service in Paducah wrote in a midmorning bulletin. “There are numerous roads across the area that have water over them and are closed. Many homes and businesses are inundated with water at this time.”

Kentucky governor declares state of emergency after record rainfall causes widespread flooding | CNN — Kentucky’s governor declared an emergency Wednesday after heavy – and potentially record-setting – rain caused widespread flooding throughout the state. The western town of Mayfield saw 11.28 inches of rain from early Wednesday to 1 p.m., the National Weather Service in Paducah said. If verified, that would establish a new 24-hour rainfall record for the state, the service said. The record heading into Wednesday was 10.48 inches of rain, set in Louisville in 1997, the weather service said. “An incredible amount of water in a very short duration unfortunately,” the weather service said. “Please pray for Mayfield and areas of Western Kentucky impacted by significant flooding from last night’s storms,” Gov. Andy Beshear said in a news release. “We’re working to assess the damage and respond. Just like every challenge we’ve faced, we will be there for all those affected. We will get through this together.” Mayfield still is recovering from a devastating tornado in 2021 that left at least 80 people dead in Kentucky. The tornado was one of at least 50 that struck several states that December. Wednesday morning, the whole town was covered in water.

Record rainfall, massive flooding in Kentucky prompts evacuation and state of emergency - (3 videos) On July 19, 2023, slow-moving thunderstorms dumped over 254 mm (10 inches) of rain in western Kentucky, prompting a state of emergency declaration due to severe flooding that instigated multiple evacuations and led to extensive road damage. 254 mm to 381 mm (10 to 15 inches) of rainfall drenched towns across western Kentucky on July 19, causing the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Paducah to warn of a potentially catastrophic flash flood damage threat in Graves, Carlisle, Ballard, and Hickman counties. These counties, all located just north of the Tennessee border, were the worst hit. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear declared a state of emergency in the affected regions, stating the move would “allow us to better support our fellow Kentuckians during this difficult time.” The governor also urged the residents to stay alert and safe as more rain was expected later in the day. In Wingo, a town located approximately 16 km (10 miles) north of the Tennessee-Kentucky border, the deluge was particularly severe. A whopping 123.4 mm (4.86 inches) of rain fell between midnight and 02:15 local time, leading to multiple water rescues. Videos shared by storm chasers painted a vivid picture of the water levels, showing how the rising floodwaters reached the wheels of several parked trucks and the porches of numerous homes. The residents of the area were shocked by the intensity of the rain. “Just a steady rain…[It came] pretty fast,” a Wingo resident named Tommy told a storm chaser. A similar situation unfolded in Mayfield, a city still recovering from the catastrophic EF4 tornado that struck in December 2021. Emergency services were conducting numerous water rescues as floodwaters rose rapidly. “Major flooding like many have never seen is occurring,” stated the Graves County Sheriff’s Office in a Facebook update. In response to the situation, a shelter was opened at His House Ministries to provide refuge for those affected by the floods. Meanwhile, many roads were rendered impassable due to the water levels, with some roads even resembling deep streams or rivers. According to the Kentucky State Mesonet, a statewide weather and climate monitoring network, Mayfield received an astounding 286.2 mm (11.28 inches) of rain in less than 24 hours on July 19. If confirmed by the NWS, this rainfall total could break the existing 24-hour rainfall record for the state, which stands at 266.7 mm (10.48 inches), recorded in Louisville, Kentucky, on March 1, 1997. The floodwaters caused widespread damage, completely washing out Oak Grove Road in Graves County. According to WPSD Meteorologist Noah Bergren, the moderate drought that had been afflicting the region likely exacerbated the effects of the flood. As the parched ground was unable to absorb the sudden influx of water, it turned roadways into raging rivers, washing out multiple roads in the process.

Severe storms, baseball-sized hail cause widespread power outages from the southern Plains to the Northeast, U.S. - (video) Severe storms, characterized by high winds and large hail, swept across the United States from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Thursday, July 20, 2023, resulting in one fatality and leaving more than 500 000 customers without power. The storms, which reached their height in the evening, caused widespread damage to crops, trees, and buildings. As per data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center, more than 500 instances of high winds and large hail damage were reported on Thursday, a consequence of a series of frontal boundaries turning severe. One death was recorded in Van Wert County, Ohio, after a large tree fell onto a house, trapping an elderly couple. The local wind gauge recorded gusts of around 64 km/h (40 mph) as a thunderstorm blew through. During the height of the severe storms, power outages escalated beyond half a million, as per data from PowerOutage.us. Even as of Friday morning (LT), nearly 300 000 customers remained without power across the impacted regions. The states hit hardest, namely Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, were struggling with extensive damage to trees and power lines due to strong wind gusts. Wilmington, Ohio, and Romulus, Michigan, recorded gusts of 114 km/h (71 mph) and 100 km/h (62 mph) respectively. Georgia Power reported their crews working diligently to repair lines in the eastern and northern parts of the state following several reports of fallen trees and power lines, particularly around Athens. Meanwhile, Genesee County, Michigan residents faced the largest threat of hail, some as large as tennis balls or even baseballs. The hailstones caused significant damage to homes, vehicles, and other outdoor objects. The storms also brought heavy rainfall. The National Weather Service issued warnings for a life-threatening thunderstorm in the Nashville area, with wind gusts of up to 128 km/h (80 mph) and substantial rainfall recorded in Mount Juliet, Tennessee. An EF-3 tornado, the strongest ever observed in North Carolina in July, was also reported earlier in the week, wreaking havoc over more than 25 km (16 miles) with winds estimated to be 241 km/h (150 mph), but no fatalities were reported from this.

Scientists say Florida Keys coral reefs are already bleaching as water temperatures hit record highs (AP) — Some Florida Keys coral reefs are losing their color weeks earlier than normal this summer because of record-high water temperatures, meaning they are under stress and their health is potentially endangered, federal scientists said.The corals should be vibrant and colorful this time of year, but are swiftly going white, said Katey Lesneski, research and monitoring coordinator for Mission: Iconic Reefs, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration launched to protect Florida coral reefs.“The corals are pale, it looks like the color’s draining out,” said Lesneski, who has spent several days on the reefs over the last two weeks. “And some individuals are stark white. And we still have more to come.”Scientists with NOAA this week raised their coral bleaching warning system to Alert Level 2 for the Keys, their highest heat stress level out of five. That level is reached when the average water surface temperature is about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) above the normal maximum for eight straight weeks.Surface temperatures around the Keys have been averaging about 91 degrees (33 Celsius), well above the normal mid-July average of 85 degrees (29.5 Celsius), said Jacqueline De La Cour, operations manager for NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program. Previous Alert Level 2s were reached in August, she said.Coral reefs are made up of tiny organisms that link together. The reefs get their color from the algae that live inside them and are the corals’ food. When temperatures get too high, the coral expels the algae, making the reefs appear white or bleached. That doesn’t mean they are dead, but the corals can starve and are more susceptible to disease.Andrew Bruckner, research coordinator at the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, said some coral reefs began showing the first signs of bleaching two weeks ago. Then in the last few days, some reefs lost all their color. That had never been recorded before Aug. 1. The peak for bleaching typically happens in late August or September.“We are at least a month ahead of time, if not two months,” Bruckner said. “We’re not yet at the point where we are seeing any mortality ... from bleaching. It is still a minor number that are completely white, certain species, but it is much sooner than we expected.”

A heat wave named Cerberus has southern Europe in its jaws, and it's only going to get worse (AP) — Tourists in central Athens huddled under mist machines and zoo animals in Madrid were fed fruit popsicles Thursday as southern Europeans suffered through a heat wave that was projected to get much worse heading into the weekend.Temperatures in parts of Mediterranean Europe were forecast to reach as high as 45 degrees Celsius (113 F) starting Friday. The high-pressure system affecting the region, which crossed the Mediterranean from north Africa, has been named Cerberus after the three-headed dog in ancient Greek mythology who guarded the gates to the underworld.Officials in several countries were preparing emergency measures, cellphone alerts and adjustments to staffing levels.In Athens and other Greek cities, working hours were changed for the public sector and many businesses to avoid the midday heat, while air-conditioned areas were opened to the public.“It’s like being in Africa,” 24-year-old tourist Balint Jolan, from Hungary, told The Associated Press. “It’s not that much hotter than it is currently at home, but yes, it is difficult.”Cerberus is being tracked by the European Space Agency, which warned that the heat wave will also be felt in parts of northern Europe.“Italy, Spain, France, Germany and Poland are all facing a major heat wave, with temperatures expected to climb to 48 degrees Celsius on the islands of Sicily and Sardinia – potentially the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe” the agency said Thursday.In the Arctic, a record high temperature of 28.8 degrees Celsius (83.8 degrees F) was measured at Slettness Fyr on the northern tip of the Norway, Norwegian meteorologists said Thursday. This tops a previous record from July 1964 when the thermometer reached 27.6 degrees Celsius (81.7 degrees F). The United Nation’s World Meteorological Organization on Monday said global temperatures recorded in early July were among the hottest on record. As Spain’s politicians fret about how the high temperatures might affect turnout in a general election this month, animals in Madrid’s Zoo were being treated this week to frozen food to cool off amid the sweltering heat. Zookeepers fed pandas and bears with watermelon popsicles, seals with frozen sardines and lions with frozen buckets of meat. Television ads in Italy reminded city dwellers to look after their pets and check in regularly with elderly relatives. Authorities were awaiting an autopsy of a 44-year-old roadworker who collapsed near Milan and later died in hospital. Storms overnight felled trees in an Italian region bordering Slovenia and Austria, while baseball size hail fell in valleys near Bergamo in Lombardy.

Wind-fanned wildfires force thousands to flee seaside resorts outside Greek capital - (AP) — Wildfires outside Athens forced thousands to flee seaside resorts, closed highways and gutted vacation homes Monday, as high winds pushed flames through hillside scrub and pine forests parched by days of extreme heat. Authorities issued evacuation orders for at least six seaside communities as two major wildfires edged closer to summer resort towns and gusts of wind hit 70 kph (45 mph). The army, police special forces and volunteer rescuers freed retirees from their homes, rescued horses from a stable, and helped monks flee a monastery threatened by the flames. Before nightfall, water-dropping planes and helicopters tackled the flames near Lagonisi, some 40 kilometers (25 miles) southeast of the capital. The second large wildfire broke out in a wooded area near the resort town of Loutraki, some 90 kilometers (55 miles) west of Athens, where a children’s summer camp and rehabilitation center for seniors were evacuated, local officials said. Fire Service spokesman Yiannis Artopios said the strong and changeable winds and mountainous terrain in which both fires broke out were slowing the firefighting effort. “The conditions are changing constantly and this has to be matched by our response. We have ordered multiple evacuations,” he said. The evacuees gathered along the coastline or were put up in schools and hotels, while coast guard vessels were dispatched to smoke-heavy beachfronts to assist if needed. On a visit to Brusssels, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis described the risk posed by wildfires this month as “extremely difficult” to deal with.

62 new forest fires ignite across Greece, evacuations underway in West Attica, Laconia, and Rhodes - (video) Over the last 24 hours, 62 new forest fires have erupted across Greece, resulting in further evacuations in several regions. The Greek Civil Protection has reported that the main fire outbreaks are located in West Attica, Laconia in the southern Peloponnese, and on the island of Rhodes. Residents in the areas of Agia Sotira, Palaiokoundoura, Panorama and Palaiochori, Oinoi, and Erythrae in West Attica have been urged to evacuate as a result of the rapidly spreading fires. In the face of this ongoing crisis, forecasts predict high-temperature conditions across the country for the coming days, increasing the risk of additional fire outbreaks. The National Civil Protection has reported that the risk of fires will remain very high on July 21, particularly in the regions of Attica, Boeotia, Evia, Corinthia, Argolis, Rhodes, Samos, and Ikaria. To address the unfolding crisis, Greece issued a request for Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) support on July 18, which has since been updated on July 20 and 21. This call to action has been answered by eight member states. France has dispatched two Canadair firefighting planes from the European Civil Protection Pool, while Italy, Croatia, and Cyprus have contributed additional aerial support. Further assistance has been sent in the form of over 220 firefighters and 79 vehicles from Poland, Slovakia, and Romania. Fifty firefighters and ten vehicles from Bulgaria are also en route to aid the effort. The coordination of these efforts is being supported by an ERCC Liaison Officer. In addition to these international efforts, the Copernicus EMS Rapid Mapping (with activations EMSR672, EMSR673, EMSR674, EMSR675) has been activated to provide essential mapping data in these emergency conditions. This collective response indicates the severity of the fires in Greece, and the international community’s commitment to assist in managing this crisis.

Violent thunderstorms, large hail and damaging tornado hit Italy - (video) On the morning of July 21, 2023, northern Italy was hit by violent thunderstorms, causing severe damage in the province of Milan. Heavy rainfall, large hail, and at least one destructive tornado were reported in the region. Violent thunderstorms moved from Piedmont toward Lombardy, northern Italy on the morning of July 21. The time of highest severity was around 11:00 local time when the ENE area of Milan witnessed intense hail and a large, damaging tornado. Although the tornado was short-lived, it managed to cause quite a bit of damage. After hitting Lombardy, the violent storms progressed towards Veneto, where the presence of a potential supercell was reported between the cities of Padua and Rovigo. This stormy phase was marked by heavy showers and thunderstorms that affected a large part of the Po Valley, with some scattered but strongly intense thunderstorms likely in the Alpine and pre-Alpine areas and local flat stretches. This atmospheric agitation can be attributed to the African high pressure that is losing some of its energy on its northernmost edge. In recent days, intense thunderstorms and hailstorms have caused considerable damage and injuries in the region. However, it is important to note that while the situation remains storm-prone with a high storm potential due to the energy involved, forecasts suggest the weather will improve during the afternoon. But the risk of intense storm activity, accompanied by strong gusts of wind, storms, and especially large hail, cannot be ruled out.

Global heat wave: The 15 hottest days in the world's hottest month - By the end of the week, it is likely that 15 days just this month will have breached an unprecedented global temperature threshold — a clarion wakeup call in the form of extreme weather.Nearly every facet of the climate system is flashing red this summer, from record-low sea ice extent in Antarctica to hot tub-like ocean waters surrounding South Florida, and all-time high temperature records set in multiple countries on at least three continents.And all this is occurring as human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels and other sources continue to increase, despite the existence of ever-cheaper technologies to generate electricity and power certain modes of transportation. Already this month, 14 days have recorded surface air temperatures greater than 17°C (62.6°F) — spikes that have not been seen for roughly 125,000 years. In fact, Wednesday marked the 17th straight day with global temperatures hotter than any prior days on record.Several more records are all but certain to fall in the coming weeks:July will be the hottest month on Earth since instrument records began in the 19th century. The milestone for the hottest summer worldwide is in jeopardy, according to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. NOAA and the ECMWF has said additional heat waves are likely in coming weeks, particularly if the dominant weather pattern — featuring multiple, stuck heat domes around the hemisphere — is not disrupted.The heat domes worldwide have been noteworthy for their duration, expansiveness and severity. This is the case even in places famous for hot weather, where people would normally shrug off a hot stretch.The overnight minimum temperature Wednesday morning in Phoenix was a sweltering 97°F, an all time high for that location. On Friday, the city is forecast to have its record 20th-straight day with a high temperature of 110°F or greater. Austin, Texas, has had 10-straight days with a high temperature of 105°F or greater, an unprecedented streak.This heat is not a mere inconvenience or something to power through.It is downright deadly, particularly for vulnerable populations including the elderly, young children, those with chronic illnesses and people without access to air conditioning. Early figures on heat-related deaths in parts of the U.S., for example, are starting to emerge, and in coming weeks it is likely these will climb. A recent study in the journal Nature Medicine found severe heat waves in Europe last summer killed as many as 61,000 people. The 17°C demarcation line is not a hard climate boundary beyond which ice sheets will melt and the oceans rise inexorably. Rather, it represents yet another warning — a "Stop, turn back" sign on the march to a more treacherous and less familiar planet. Forget about the overused expression, "the new normal," to describe our current climate moment. As Friedericke Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London told Axios, "We’re nowhere near a normal." "Whenever we stop burning fossil fuels we can begin to figure out what 'normal' means again," Otto said.Perhaps this is our taste of the new type of extreme heat, as we transition into even more unstable times. Because this is both one of the hottest summers of our lives, and one of the coolest of the rest of our lives.

Global heatwave exacerbates social crisis across US, Europe, Asia and Middle East -Phoenix, Arizona, recorded its 19th consecutive day with high temperatures above 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday, temperatures that are forecast to persist through Sunday. The town of Sanbao, China, registered a national record high temperature of 126 degrees Fahrenheit (52.2 C), shooting past a record 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50.3 C) set in 2015. Two homeless men with ice on July 14, 2023 in downtown Phoenix, which hit 112 degrees that day, marking the city's 15th consecutive day of 110 degree-plus temperatures. [AP Photo/Matt York] In Italy, temperatures shot past 107 degrees Fahrenheit (41.8 C) in Rome and 113 degrees Fahrenheit (45 C) in Sardinia. And at the Persian Gulf International Airport in Iran, the heat index soared to an unprecedented 152 degrees Fahrenheit (66.7 C). The temperature records set Tuesday and those that have been set since the beginning of July are demonstrative of what is increasingly emerging as a “new normal” for the world’s climate. With the continual increase in the emission of greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane), more heat from sunlight is trapped and gives rise to the extreme weather phenomena—heat domes, polar vortexes, prolonged wildfires, torrential flooding, savage hurricanes—that are now directly attributed to global warming. The immediate cause of the current temperatures are four “heat domes” that have currently centralized over the southern United States, the North Atlantic, North Africa and the Middle East and South Asia. Heat domes are immense high pressure systems filled with hot air that prevent colder air from coming in and reducing temperatures. In addition to heatwaves, heat domes exacerbate wildfires, droughts and other heat-related weather disasters. The toll on human life is immense. There were more than 61,000 heatstroke and heat-related deaths in Europe last summer, according to a study in Nature Medicine published last Friday. Data from the National Weather Service in the United States shows that deaths from extreme heat are eight times higher than deaths caused by hurricanes over the last decade. Heat deaths particularly impact workers forced on the job in unsafe and deadly conditions. Thousands of migrant workers in Qatar, many of whom were construction workers building stadiums and other facilities for last year’s world cup, have died from heatstroke and other related illnesses such as kidney failure from dehydration, according to separate research by the journal Cardiology and the Guardian. A 2021 study by the Los Angeles Times found that nearly 400 people die from heat in California each year, the majority of them among the elderly, the homeless and construction, agricultural and warehouse workers.

Devastating mudflow in Quetame leaves 20 dead and 9 missing, Colombia - A devastating mudflow struck Quetame, Colombia, late on July 17, 2023, resulting in at least 20 fatalities and leaving 9 individuals missing. The disaster, precipitated by intense rainfall, also led to significant property damage, including the destruction of several homes and a key trade route. In the late hours of Monday, July 17, 2023, Quetame, a municipality in Colombia’s Cundinamarca department, was hit by a catastrophic mudflow. The incident, caused by torrential rainfall, claimed the lives of at least 20 people, among them five minors, while nine individuals were still unaccounted for. The disaster also resulted in significant material damage, with several houses destroyed and a major trading route obstructed. Heavy rains on July 19 posed additional challenges to the ongoing search and rescue operations. Over 400 military troops, firefighters, and other government rescue workers battled the adverse weather conditions in their pursuit of the missing persons. Alvaro Farfan, the fire department chief, noted during a press briefing that the rain posed a safety risk to the personnel involved in the operation. Additionally, the persistent downpour raised concerns about the possibility of further landslides. Farfan assured that authorities were employing technological equipment to monitor the area for potential risks. The first responders would be evacuated if necessary, he added.The mudflow significantly disrupted local infrastructure. It swept away a vehicle bridge that linked Bogota to Villavicencio in the east, one of Colombia’s main freight routes. Officials projected that the route would remain closed until at least the end of the following week. The incident left areas buried under approximately 2 m (6.56 feet) of mud in some places, as stated by Quetame Mayor Camilo Parrado. This further complicated the already challenging search and rescue operation, described as “very complex” by Parrado.

Mountain landslide in Maharashtra’s Irshalwadi buries 40 homes, leads to multiple fatalities - In the late hours of July 19, 2023, a catastrophic landslide struck Irshalwadi, a tribal village in the Khalapur tehsil of Maharashtra’s Raigad district, claiming the lives of 16 individuals and leaving around 80 to 100 persons feared trapped. The landslide was triggered by three days of intense rainfall. Following the devastating landslide in Irshalwadi, Maharashtra, late Wednesday, July 19, 2023, rescue and relief operations swung into action. Triggered by an intense rainfall of 499 mm (19.6 inches) spread over three days, the landslide caused large boulders, mud, and slush to slide down the mountain slope, burying nearly 40 homes. Unfortunately, the rescue operations have been hindered by ongoing heavy rainfall in the area, making the task more challenging for the over 500 rescue workers on site. In the wake of this disaster, the Indian Air Force has kept two helicopters on standby to assist with the rescue operation. However, adverse weather conditions have prevented their deployment. The Savitri River in Mahad has breached its danger mark of 6.5 m (21.3 feet), standing at 6.55 m (21.4 inches) on July 20. This situation has been exacerbated by the continued rainfall in the Khalapur tehsil, which recorded 198.6 mm (7.8 inches) in the 24-hour period ending on July 20. It is estimated that between 80 to 100 people remain trapped under the debris following the landslide. So far, rescue workers have managed to save almost 100 people and recover 12 bodies from the site. Tragically, one rescue worker suffered a fatal cardiac arrest at the scene of the disaster.

Tropical Storm “Talim” heading toward southern China, landfall expected in Guangdong - Tropical Storm “Talim” formed in the East China Sea on July 14, 2023, as the 4th named storm of the 2023 Pacific Ocean typhoon season. The storm is heading toward southern China, with landfall expected in Guangdong Province around 18:00 UTC on July 17. As of 09:00 UTC July 16, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “Talim” was located about 365 km (225 miles) south-southeast of Hong Kong. Its maximum 10-minute sustained winds were at 95 km/h (60 mph), with gusts up to 130 km/h (80 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds were at 100 km/h (65 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 980 hPa, and the system was moving west-northwest at 13 km/h (8.1 mph). Before reaching tropical storm strength, Talim — known as Dodong in the Philippines — made landfall in Dinapigue, Isabela, Philippines, and continued to track westward close to the northern edge of mainland Luzon, crossing through Cagayan and Ilocos Norte. The winds from Talim enhanced the East Asian monsoon over the Philippines, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty conditions over the country as it neared Luzon. This caused classes to be suspended in three cities and in Cagayan, and three domestic flights to be canceled. The rainfall from the storm also helped raise the water level significantly in Angat Dam, the main water source for areas in Metro Manila, but only slightly in more northern Magat Dam in Isabela. This was beneficial as both dams had neared critical levels as rainfall decreased from the onset of El Niño conditions. It emerged off the coast of Ilocos Norte at around 09:00 UTC on July 14 and around 15:00 UTC, the JTWC began issuing advisories for the now tropical depression, designated as 04W. With the system now back in warm seas and moving further westward away from land, it found itself in a favorable environment and began consolidating further. The system intensified into a tropical storm just prior to exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and was named Talim by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Tropical Storm “Talim” is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Hong Kong in the early hours of Monday morning (LT), July 17. The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) is considering raising the typhoon warning signal to No. 8, and the public is advised to take precautions. A woman was injured after a 20 m (65 feet) high tree fell on her at South Bay Beach, and there have been reports of other downed trees and power outages. The winds from Talim are expected to reach up to 100 km/h (62 mph) in Hong Kong, and the rain is expected to be heavy. The storm is expected to bring high tides and rough seas, and the public is advised to stay away from the shoreline. According to HKO, the storm will likely pass over Hong Kong by Monday afternoon, July 17.

Climate change and the uninsurable future - A person buying insurance does so because he or she is concerned about the future. A house fire could lead to a financial wipe-out. A car accident resulting in hospitalization could result in savings-depleting bills without insurance. Insurance companies, however, concern themselves primarily with the past. They pay people called actuaries to create detailed models of risk using voluminous data from the past regarding medical diagnoses, life expectancy, damage due to natural disasters, auto accident statistics and myriad other pieces of information. These models help insurance companies predict the frequency and severity of the events they insure against and thereby set their rates. If, however, conditions that create risks are rapidly changing—as they are now with climate change—models dependent on past data become unreliable. As a result, property and casualty insurers have been stung by huge losses due to severe weather. For example, the California wildfires of 2017 and 2018 resulted in $29 billion in insurance claims. But insurers only took in $15.6 billion in premiums.Hurricanes and floods resulted in $120 billion in insured losses in 2022. Companies expect insured losses to continue to rise as climate change intensifies. So much of modern life depends on the availability of insurance. Homeowners who have paid off their homes can go without insurance, but few do. That's because homes are often the largest asset that a family owns. Homes with mortgages are always insured because the lender requires it. And no modern business can function without insurance for property and liability. Even nonprofit organizations including houses of worship carry insurance. Divine protection is not usually considered enough by those who govern such institutions. Now the viability of the insurance industry is at risk. Insurance companies know this, and one solution is simply not to insure homes and businesses in places at high risk for flooding, hurricanes, wildfires and other quickly mounting hazards. For example, many insurance companies have left Florida due to the increasingly high and unquantifiable risk. Three major insurers stopped writing polices in Florida recently. Twelve other national companies left the state previously between 2020 through 2022. Of the remaining companies, many are Florida-only insurers and six of those became insolvent last year. Thirty Florida-only companies are being watched closely by state regulators because of fears they might become insolvent. Climate-enhanced wildfire risks in California have led three large insurers to stop writing new policies for homeowners. The companies also say that state regulators' limits on policy premiums in the face of rising risks were part of the reason for pulling back.Naturally, states want to keep insurance available and affordable for their citizens. So, many have opened their own property and casualty insurance companies to fill the gap left behind by private insurers. Problem is, those state-sponsored insurance companies face the same risks as the exiting private companies. Any losses that exceed resources will ultimately be made up by taxpayers, many of whom do not benefit from state-backed insurance and many of whom purchased or built homes and businesses in less risky places.The mounting risk has not gone unnoticed by those to who insure insurance companies known as reinsurers. Insurance companies often insure themselves against major losses through reinsurance. Earlier this month reinsurers upped their rates for U.S. property and casualty insurers by as much at 50 percent. Of course, the rest of the world is experiencing huge losses due to climate change-enhanced severe weather, too. Examples include catastrophic flooding in eastern Australia and floods affecting more than 33 million people in Pakistan, both in 2022. It would be one thing if this new normal were a one-time change. Insurance companies could probably easily adjust. But the problem with climate change is that it is a moving target. Severe weather is going to get worse and worse as climate change continues to intensify. The intersection between the prices buyers of insurance are willing or able to pay and the prices insurers need to stay solvent must of necessity shrink. And, the reluctance of insurers to take on risk they can no longer understand is already making private insurance less available. That means more and more people may go without insurance in an increasingly risky environment. And, that means one of three things:

Governments choose to provide insurance. (For example, the U.S. government already provides 95 percent all the flood insurance in the country.)
Governments end up paying to rebuild uninsured homes, businesses and other private infrastructure when they are damaged in natural disasters.
In the absence of government help, those who are uninsured and haven't the resources to rebuild will leave or sell at rock-bottom prices whatever is left of their property. Much of what gets devastated will never be rebuilt.

Very strong M7.2 earthquake hits Alaska Peninsula, U.S. - Tsunami Advisory issued - A very strong earthquake registered by the USGS as M7.2 (downgraded from M7.4) hit near the coast of the Alaska Peninsula, U.S. at 06:48 UTC on July 16, 2023. The agency is reporting a depth of 32.6 km (20.2 miles). EMSC is reporting M7.4 at a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). The epicenter was located 98.7 km (61.4 miles) S of Sand Point (population 1 064) and 984 km (611 miles) SW of Anchorage (population 291 247), Alaska. A Tsunami Advisory is in effect for South Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, Pacific coasts from Chignik Bay to Unimak Pass, Alaska (128 km / 80 miles NE of Unalaska). For other U.S. and Canadian Pacific coasts in North America, there is no tsunami threat, NWS NTWC said. If you are in a tsunami advisory area:

Move out of the water, off the beach, and away from harbors, marinas, breakwaters, bays and inlets.
Be alert to and follow instructions from your local emergency officials because they may have more detailed or specific information for your location.
If you feel a strong earthquake or extended ground rolling take immediate protective actions such as moving inland and/or uphill preferably by foot.
Where time and conditions permit, move your boat out to sea to a depth of at least 55 m (180 feet).
If at sea avoid entering shallow water, harbors, marinas, bays, and inlets to avoid floating and submerged debris and strong currents.
Do not go to the shore to observe the tsunami.
Do not return to the coast until local emergency officials indicate it is safe to do so

Eruption at Shishaldin intensifies, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Alaska - The eruption of Shishaldin Volcano has intensified, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) announced at 05:52 UTC on July 16, 2023, and raised the Aviation Color Code to Orange. At 07:57 UTC, the Aviation Color Code was raised to Red and the Volcano Alert Level to WARNING. Ash cloud to 4.6 km (15 000 feet) above sea level, drifting SSE, has been observed in satellite data starting at about 17:00 UTC on July 15, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a SIGMET for this activity. Seismic tremor amplitudes began to increase starting around 01:00 UTC on July 16 and continued over at least the next 6 hours. The activity has also been observed on regional infrasound (presure sensor) arrays. In the Volcanic Activity Notice issued at 07:57 UTC on July 16, AVO said the explosive eruption of Shishaldin Volcano continues.1 “A continuous ash plume now extends over 125 km (80 miles) to the SSE from the volcano with an altitude of about 4.9 km (16 000 feet) above sea level,” AVO volcanologists said. “Seismicity has remained elevated for over 6 hours and frequent explosion signals are being detected at regional infrasound (pressure sensor) networks. Some explosions are sending ash plumes as high as 6 km (20 000 feet) above sea level.” Due to the duration of this current activity and the extent of the distributing ash cloud the Aviation Color Code was raised to RED and the Volcano Alert Level to WARNING.

Double-peaked, long-duration M5.7 solar flare from AR 3363 produced asymmetric halo CME, S2 - Moderate solar radiation storm - A double-peaked, long-duration solar flare measuring M5.7 erupted from Active Region 3363 (beta-delta) at 00:06 UTC on July 18, 2023, producing an asymmetric halo CME and S2 – Moderate solar radiation storm. An associated asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning near 23:43 UTC on July 17. Analysis and modeling of this event is still ongoing.1 This region also produced an M2.7 flare at 22:54 UTC on July 17. A 10cm Radio Burst (Tenflare) with a peak flux of 1 500 sfu was detected from 23:27 UTC on July 17 to 00:03 UTC on July 18. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. With the flares (M5.7 and M2.7) being back to back, the source of the tenflare that was associated with these events, could not be easily attributed to one or the other flare. Region 3363 rotated closer to the southwest limb and was quite foreshortened, making classification even more difficult. An additional M1.5 flare occurred at 06:56 UTC on July 18 from a region yet to rotate onto the East Limb. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event has been in progress since approximately 01:15 UTC today and was initiated by the arrival of energetic protons at the 10 MeV (megaelectron volts) level at Earth and the onset of a S1 – Minor Solar Radiation Storm event that began at 01:15 UTC. The S1 event was triggered by a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the aforementioned M5 flare that accelerated particles toward Earth. PCA events can prevent the ability to communicate via HF radio propagation around the polar regions and can last for hours to days. This event is likely to continue throughout July 18 and perhaps into July 19, SWPC forecasters said. Solar radiation storms cause several impacts near Earth. When energetic protons collide with satellites or humans in space, they can penetrate deep into the object that they collide with and cause damage to electronic circuits or biological DNA. Also, when the energetic protons collide with the atmosphere, they ionize the atoms and molecules thus creating free electrons. These electrons create a layer near the bottom of the ionosphere that can absorb HF radio waves making radio communication difficult or impossible. Some impacts from solar radiation storms can impair the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew, and impact HF communication in the polar regions, affecting transpolar commercial airline operations.2

Solar and Wind Power to Supply a Third of Global Power by 2030: RMI - Solar and wind generation will continue increasing and supply over a third of all power by 2030, up from 12 percent currently, according to a report from RMI, a non-profit organization focused on the energy transition. Based on the organization's forecast, solar and wind could generate 12,000 to 14,000 terawatt-hours by 2030, which is three to four times higher compared to 2022 levels. The projected levels would also exceed recent calls ahead of the COP28 climate summit to triple total renewable energy by 2030, RMI said. The RMI also projects fossil fuel demand to be in “steep decline”, decreasing as much as 30 percent by 2030 from the 2022 peak, as renewable energy becomes more cost-effective. “Exponential rates of deployment are driving down renewable prices at [an] unprecedented pace, rendering higher cost hydrocarbons uncompetitive in most markets”, RMI said. The cost of renewable electricity has dropped over the past 10 years, overcoming a key barrier to widespread deployment. Solar and battery costs have decreased by 80 percent between 2012 and 2022, while offshore wind costs are down 73 percent and onshore wind costs are 57 percent, RMI said, citing BNEF data. RMI expects renewable energy, which is “already the cheapest form of electricity in history”, to roughly halve in price again by 2030, dropping to as low as $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh) from over $40 per MWh currently. “Exponential growth of clean energy is an unstoppable force that will put more spending power in the pockets of consumers”, RMI Senior Principal Kingsmill Bond said. “The benefit of rapid renewable deployment is greater energy security and independence, plus long-term energy price deflation because this is a manufactured technology – the more you install the cheaper it gets.”

‘Giant Methane Factories’: Hydropower Has Long Been Touted as Clean Energy. But Is It? - Mark Easter couldn’t help but feel disappointed when he learned about a new study from Stanford University, which drew connections between the ongoing drought in the American West and an increase in U.S. carbon emissions.The study, published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that U.S. carbon emissions increased by about 121 million metric tons over the last 20 years because dwindling water levels in rivers meant that hydroelectric dams couldn’t generate as much power, so states were tapping fossil fuel power plants to make up the difference. That’s a significant rise in carbon emissions in just two decades, “about the same as if an additional 1.3 million cars had been on the road during the same period,” Grist staff writer Jake Bittle reported. Local air pollution likely increased as well, the study notes, since burning fossil fuels releases a host of toxic fumes, including carcinogens like benzene and fine particulate matter. But Easter, an ecological consultant currently working with the environmental advocacy group Save the Colorado and a former senior researcher at Colorado State University’s Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, said last week’s study missed a critical aspect about hydropower: it’s far from being a carbon neutral source of energy. While the Stanford study found that, over 20 years, a drop in hydropower production led to an increase of 121 million metric tons of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates that U.S. reservoirs—including the reservoirs created by hydropower dams—contributed nearly 29 million metric tons of carbon emissions in 2021 alone.“The word blindspot, I think, is really appropriate here,” Easter told me. “The concept of how methane gets produced by ecosystems is not really widely understood. And that’s really what the source of the issue is here. Reservoirs are giant methane factories.”Not all of the reservoir emissions the EPA has documented are tied to hydroelectric operations. There are many types of reservoirs, including ones used to mitigate flood risks that don’t generate any electricity. Still, the Stanford study’s failure to address the climate impact of hydropower at all, Easter said, is a symptom of a bigger issue.Easter, who has contributed to multiple landmark climate reports by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is part of a growing chorus of scientists and climate advocates who say too many conversations about clean energy refer to hydropower as if it doesn’t have a significant carbon footprint, despite studies that have long suggested it does.A robust body of research, some of which dates back to the late 1990s, has found that the reservoirs created by dams are notable sources of both carbon dioxide and methane, a potent greenhouse gas that’s about 80 times more effective at trapping heat than CO2 over a 20-year period. One estimate suggests that hydropower makes up at least 1.3 percent of total global carbon emissions—though many scientists believe it’s likely higher.Researchers say that methane is one of the biggest issues with hydropower. As organic matter, including vegetation, dead animals and even fertilizer runoff, gets carried downstream, it piles up in large quantities behind dams and decomposes in the reservoirs. Normally, that decaying organic matter would eventually reach the ocean, where chemical reactions would convert the methane into carbon dioxide and other compounds. But in the oxygen-depleted waters of a dam reservoir, that transformation often can’t occur. The result is that artificial reservoirs end up having a far larger climate impact than lakes and other natural bodies of water.

Heiress Abigail Disney arrested for chaining herself in front of Hamptons airport to protest ‘billionaires spewing greenhouse gasses to get to their palatial beach homes’ - Heiress Abigail Disney has long spoken from the inside about the damages of extreme wealth. Born into wealth herself, she's well-acquainted with its perks but has seen enough about carbon emissions and rising inequity to know that jet setting isn’t worth the price to society. She's had a long crusade against private jets, which has recently landed her in hot water with the Hamptons police.Disney was arrested on Friday for taking part in a demonstration alongside members from New York Communities for Change, the Sunrise Movement, and Planet Over Profit, according to local newspaper The East Hampton Star. Participants, including Disney, blocked the East Hampton Airport to stop private planes from departing and raise awareness regarding the tax to the climate that these jets and their owners create. The Hamptons are a famously wealthy area where the rich tend to fly off too.Activists sat in front of the airport entrance for about 90 minutes, linking their arms with chains attached by PVC pipes and duct tape, reported theStar. They chanted slogans like “Climate change is f***ing real, give us all a green new deal” and “tax the rich,” according to the outlet.Disney was one of 14 arrested out of roughly 30 attendees, per the local paper, charged with resisting arrest and disorderly conduct. New York Communities for Change posted a video of Hamptons police using power tools to break the pipes Disney was chained into. “At 63 I still had not popped my fingerprint/mug shot cherry so I did this,” Disney tweeted of her arrest, adding “the last thing this planet needs is billionaires spewing greenhouse gasses to get to their palatial beach homes.”Disney has long called out the habits of the wealthy and their carbon footprint. The philanthropist tweeted earlier this year that “private jets are a cancer,” suggesting business class as an alternative for those who say they charter planes for privacy reasons. Resolving to be more conscious about travel in 2023, she added that she occasionally flies business and “fail[s] to see what is so hard about that.”She’s also a part of the hundreds of ultra-wealthy individuals comprising the Patriotic Millionaires, a group that campaigns for higher taxes on the wealthy, including themselves. They’ve called out inequality, with Disney writing in a press release that “extreme wealth is eating our world alive.”A report from the Patriotic Millionaires and left-leaning think tank Institute for Policy Studies, looked at data from Wealth-X to find out how much the rich actually fly solo. One of the main offenders, Elon Musk, had yearly private jet emissions that were 132 times higher than the entire carbon footprint of the average American.

The scariest thing about global warming - Because the virus crept up on us, we adjusted to it, like we’re adjusting to climate change, like we adjust to everything. It’s called “shifting baselines syndrome” and it’s the theme of a piece I first published back in July. It is, unfortunately, at relevant as ever. For as long as I’ve followed global warming, advocates and activists have shared a certain faith: When the impacts get really bad, people will act. ----- From this perspective, the scary possibility is that the moment of reckoning will come too late. There’s a time lag in climate change — the effects being felt now trace back to gases emitted decades ago. By the time things get bad enough, many further devastating and irreversible changes will already be “baked in” by past emissions. We might not wake up in time. That is indeed a scary possibility. But there is a scarier possibility, in many ways more plausible: We never really wake up at all. No moment of reckoning arrives. The atmosphere becomes progressively more unstable, but it never does so fast enough, dramatically enough, to command the sustained attention of any particular generation of human beings. Instead, it is treated as rising background noise. Maybe climate chaos, a rising chorus of alarm signals from around the world, will simply become our new normal. Hell, maybe income inequality, political dysfunction, and successive waves of a deadly virus will become our new normal. Maybe we’ll just get used to [waves hands] all this. Humans often don’t remember what we’ve lost or demand that it be restored. Rather, we adjust to what we’ve got. It’s not just intergenerationally that we forget, either. The Imperial College researchers also demonstrated the existence of another form of shifting baselines syndrome: personal amnesia, “where knowledge extinction occurs as individuals forget their own experience.” Just as generations forget about ecological loss, so do individuals It turns out that, over the course of their lives, individuals do just what generations do — periodically reset and readjust to new baselines. Just as we adjust emotionally, we adjust cognitively. We forget what came before; we simply don’t think about it. For the most part, only our recent experience is salient in defining our baselines, our sense of normal. “The reference point for normal conditions appears to be based on weather experienced between 2 and 8 years ago,” the study concluded.

Coal-fired Pleasants Power Station closer to hydrogen switch after purchase agreement signed, county commissioner says | Energy and Environment - The coal-fired Pleasants Power Station is closer to a switch from inactive status to running on hydrogen after a purchase agreement was signed by its owner, operator and a California company, a Pleasants County commissioner says. Gazette-Mail file photo A purchase agreement has been signed to set up new ownership of a Pleasants County coal-fired power plant that had been slated for closure, according to a county official. Pleasants County Commissioner Jay Powell said Santa Barbara, California-based Omnis Fuel Technologies had signed an agreement to purchase the Pleasants Power Station.

NV Energy to Convert Sole Coal Plant to Natural Gas Nevada-based NV Energy will convert its lone coal-fired power plant to a natural gas-run plant, the company said in a news release Wednesday. NV Energy plans to file a fifth amendment to its 2021 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN) at the end of July. The amendment progresses the company’s commitment to retiring its final coal generation plant by the end of 2025, as well as proposes new in-state renewable resources for power generation, NV Energy said in the news release. NV Energy’s North Valmy coal-fired power plant, located in northern Nevada near Battle Mountain, will be converted to use natural gas. The conversion will allow the company to “reduce carbon emissions by almost 50 percent through the elimination of coal while ensuring the company has a facility in that part of the state that can operate around the clock to meet the energy needs of our customers”, according to the release. “The amendment reflects the best path forward to balance the stability and reliability of our energy grid while working toward the goal of reducing carbon emissions”, NV Energy President and CEO Doug Cannon said. “By eliminating coal from the NV Energy system, we are continuing to deliver on the commitment to reduce carbon emissions for Nevada.” “NV Energy carefully analyzed several options for the North Valmy location to find a balanced solution that took into account reliability, affordability, and sustainability. Serving Nevada’s rural customers is a critical priority, and the proposed option delivers a reliable and cost-effective option to serve a more remote location that also reduces carbon emissions to respond appropriately to the region’s energy demands”, Cannon said. The power plant conversion plan is the latest in a series of similar decisions made by USA energy companies amid a trend of shifting from coal to gas-fired power. In June, the plant owner of the Homer City Generating Station in Pennsylvania announced its closure. Coal plants have struggled to effectively compete in USA power markets against newer, more efficient, natural gas-fired, combined-cycle power plants, the USA Energy Information Administration said.

NTSB investigation into Pennsylvania candy factory explosion reveals natural gas was leaking from 2 service lines — An investigation conducted by the National Transportation Safety Board into the explosion at an eastern Pennsylvania candy factory that left seven people dead in March revealed that natural gas was leaking from two service lines, according to a preliminary report released Tuesday.The report found that gas was leaking from a DuPont Aldyl A service tee installed in 1982 at the R.M. Palmer Co. facility, where the deadly explosion also injured 11 others on March 24, according to the NTSB. A service tee is a fitting that connects multiple pipes together in a T-shaped configuration.In 2021, the service tee was retired and relocated from the basement to the outside of the building but remained connected to the natural gas system fully pressurized, the NTSB noted.“The 1982 service tee was less than 2-feet from subsurface infrastructures that ran between Palmer Buildings 1 and 2, including a steam line, a condensate line, and several heated chocolate pipelines,” the preliminary report says. “NTSB investigators observed general corrosion and a crack in the steam line when it was exposed on-scene.”Investigators also found another smaller leak in a new service line installed in 2021.NTSB’s report noted that the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) in 2007 added the Aldyl A service tees with Delrin inserts, which the 1982 line had, to a list of materials with “poor performance histories relative to brittle-like cracking.”

One year in, the Inflation Reduction Act is working — kind of -It’s been nearly a year since Democratic lawmakers pushed the first new climate spending legislation in more than a decade over the congressional finish line. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, or IRA, includes $369 billion in clean energy tax credits and funding for climate and energy programs, money that is already trickling into the economy as federal agencies begin to distribute it. The Biden administration said the bill will help deliver on the president’s pledge to cut the United States’ emissions in half by 2030, and independent analyses estimated that it would help slash domestic emissions by 43 to 48 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. Now, researchers have made an updated prediction. The Rhodium Group, an independent analytics firm that tracks greenhouse gas emissions produced by the U.S. economy,published a report on Thursday that shows just how much climate progress the IRA will usher in — and where the legislation will fall flat. “Nearly one year after it passed, the IRA’s effects are coming into clearer focus,” a spokesperson for Rhodium Group said. The report, the ninth edition of Rhodium’s annual emissions assessment, found that the IRA and state-level climate bills that have been signed into law by governors across the country in recent years will drive emissions down between 29 and 42 percent in 2030, compared to 2005 levels. By 2035, greenhouse gas emissions will decrease between 32 and 51 percent. Prior to the IRA’s passage, the nation was on track to cut emissions by 26 to 41 percent by 2035, according to Rhodium’s estimate from 2022. Rhodium called the overall reductions “a meaningful departure from previous years’ expectations for the U.S. emissions trajectory.” Thanks to the IRA’s subsidies, solar and wind energy are already becoming a lot cheaper: solar by nearly 40 percent and wind by 55 percent. The legislation will also influence the speed with which electric vehicles replace gas-powered cars. In 2035, electric vehicles will comprise between one-third and two-thirds of all passenger car sales, the report said. That’s meaningful progress, but the emissions reductions aren’t steep enough to get the U.S. fully on track to meet its pledge to reduce emissions 50 to 52 percent by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, the 2015 international treaty on climate change that aims to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). That’s because federal policy levers are only one piece of the decarbonization puzzle. A number of other factors could influence the speed and extent to which renewable energy technologies replace oil, coal, and gas, including how the industrial sector behaves and whether states continue to pass ambitious climate policies. And because the IRA revolves around incentives for clean energy, rather than penalties for fossil fuel use, some of the factors impacting the speed with which the economy decarbonizes won’t be influenced by the federal legislation. For example, Rhodium projects that natural gas, which made up roughly 36 percent of the nation’s power mix in 2022, will comprise 6 to 29 percent of the power supply by 2035, depending on whether utilities take advantage of the incentives in the bill and what types of renewable energies are feasible in their markets. Natural gas, a cheap source of energy, surpassed coal as the nation’s leading source of electricity in 2016. Despite the incentives in the IRA, gas is still abundant, affordable, and here to stay for the foreseeable future.

How Biden steered climate money to red states - New Hampshire is dusting off its climate plan for the first time in 14 years. Georgia officials are drafting the state’s first-ever statewide carbon strategy. Minnesota is analyzing its environmental justice policies.Conservative or progressive, urban or rural, pro-oil or pro-renewable — states across the country are taking millions of dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act to plan how to cut climate pollution.At least, most of them are.Four states — Florida, South Dakota, Iowa and Kentucky — have refused to apply for the climate money. So EPA is sending it to their biggest cities instead. Now, towns such as Rapid City, S.D., and Iowa City, Iowa, will try to compensate for the regulatory power, administrative capacity and budgetary heft that only states can muster.That’s a feature of the Inflation Reduction Act rather than a flaw, experts said. The law’s Climate Pollution Reduction Grants were designed so that if a state turned down the money, EPA could route those funds through that state’s biggest cities instead.“These grants are really important — they’re one of the more important pieces of the IRA,” said Craig Segall, Evergreen Action’s vice president of policy.It’s obviously better if a state takes the money, he said, but cities do have unique power over sectors such as buildings and transportation. “The door’s not closed [on climate action] if a city takes this on,” he said. It’s “potentially still a really big deal.”Progressives wanted to avoid a repeat of the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion, which Republican officials blocked in several states by simply refusing to accept federal funds. So this time, the Inflation Reduction Act presented GOP governors a choice: control climate funding themselves or cede it to Democratic-run cities.“Everyone was concerned after having seen the way that Republican governors had rejected the health care expansion funding from Obamacare. What would happen if they rejected the climate planning funding, too?” said Trevor Higgins, the Center for American Progress’ senior vice president for energy and environment.The Inflation Reduction Act offered every state $3 million for climate planning, as well as $1 million to the67 biggest metro regions. If a governor refused the grant, the state’s three biggest cities would become eligible for the state’s money — even if they were originally too small to qualify.The strategy has been validated, advocates said, by 46 states applying for the climate grants — even GOP-dominated states where officials relish public brawls against President Joe Biden’s climate agenda.

Project Tundra carbon capture plans may not be worth climate, financial risks - — As the state of North Dakota trumpets Project Tundra, experts outside of the state raise questions about capturing carbon dioxide emissions from two units at coal-fired Milton R. Young Power Plant near Center, North Dakota. The only real certainty is that the initiative will be expensive and will result in unabated carbon emissions at least through 2028, if not longer, under the projected construction timeline. Costs of producing energy will also rise due to the technology needed to capture the emissions and pump them deep underground. For some, the expenditures don’t make sense financially and they don’t make sense when it comes to reducing carbon emissions. “The Milton Young plant is 50 years old, for God’s sakes, and coal plants don’t tend to last much longer than that,” said Dennis Wamsted, a Boston-based energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “Basically, you’re putting carbon capture on a facility that was scheduled to shut down in the very near future,” Wamsted said. “That makes no sense to us. There are many viable options to replace that power. They’re here now, they’re clean, and they’re cheap and reliable.” If the project is completed and gets up and running, 45Q tax credit subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act will provide up to $85 per metric ton of CO2 that is permanently stored directly beneath the facility. The tax subsidy program lasts for a total of 12 years, and after that the power plant would need to cover the sequestration costs itself or potentially stop capturing those emissions. If 45Q tax credits are extended, subsidies could continue to keep the facility operating. Capturing a projected 4 million tons of CO2 per year at $85 per ton for 12 years would amount to a subsidy of $4.08 billion over that period. North Dakota’s Clean Sustainable Energy Authority already approved a $100 million loan from state funds for up front capital costs for the project and is considering another $150 million on top. The participants in the project — Minnkota Power Cooperative, TC Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kiewit — have also applied for a separate $350 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy. Upfront capital costs needed to complete the project and get it running are estimated at $1.4 billion. All those costs combined may end up being greater than it would be to close the facility and transition to other forms of energy, said Jeremy Fisher, a senior advisor with the Sierra Club's Environmental Law Program based in San Francisco. “And then at the back end of that 12 years, that’s it ... you’re not going to keep operating that carbon capture and sequestration plant,” he said.

Biden Government Denies Refinery Pleas for Biofuel-Blending Exemptions - The Biden administration on Friday rejected more than two dozen oil refinery requests for exemptions from US biofuel-blending requirements. The Environmental Protection Agency’s decision is a blow to 15 unidentified small refineries that had sought the waivers from requirements to blend renewable fuels into gasoline and diesel, arguing the mandates were too costly. However, the agency determined none of the 26 rejected applications demonstrated they experienced disproportionate economic hardship caused by their compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard mandates. The rejected applications sought relief from quotas for 2016-2018 and 2021-2023 compliance years, an EPA official said. The move is consistent with the EPA’s approach to the issue since President Joe Biden took office. The agency last year rescinded dozens of previously granted RFS exemptions, part of a bid to reorient the program after years of legal fighting over the waivers. Although the RFS authorizes waivers for some small refineries that can show they’ve suffered an economic hardship under the biofuel mandate, a federal court has held that the exemptions may only be granted when those financial woes are caused by compliance to the rules. Biofuel advocates have argued against the waivers, saying they diminish the RFS and dilute the power of annual blending requirements. Under the program, fuel importers and refiners are generally obligated to mix biofuels into their gasoline and diesel — or buy tradable credits known as renewable identification numbers from others that do.

Federal judge dismisses Madigan-related bribery charge against ComEd - Chicago Sun-Times - A federal judge agreed Monday to dismiss the bribery charge against ComEd that has loomed over the utility company since 2020 for its role in a scheme that helped lead to the indictment of former Illinois House Speaker Michael J. Madigan.While significant, the dismissal of the criminal charge against ComEd is not surprising. Under the terms of a deferred prosecution agreement between prosecutors and the utility, the feds agreed to seek dismissal as long as ComEd held up its end of the three-year deal. During a brief court hearing Monday, Assistant U.S. Attorney Diane MacArthur told U.S. District Judge John Kness that ComEd “has fully complied with the terms” of that deal. That included paying a $200 million fine and cooperating with investigators.

Ohio Power Siting Board Finalizes Rule Revisions Following Multi-Year Process - JD Supra - On July 20, 2023, the Ohio Power Siting Board (“Board” or “OPSB”) issued its final determination on a comprehensive set of proposed revisions to the rules governing the procedures before the OPSB and its siting criteria.[1] The Order culminates a multi-year process that began with a series of workshops at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and a subsequent stakeholder comment process.[2] A copy of the OPSB’s Order, with all rule revisions, can be accessed here or via the case docket (21-902-GE-BRO). For those unfamiliar with the OPSB, it is a state agency in Ohio responsible for siting certain energy generation and transmission infrastructure facilities that fall within the definition of a “major utility facility,” including utility-scale wind and solar projects. The impact of the OPSB’s rules is far-reaching and impacts everyone from utility-scale solar developers to independent power producers to traditional public utilities. The Order adopting the rules comes a little over a year after the OPSB formally proposed changes to the rules and requested stakeholder comments and reply comments. From July 2022 to September 2022, approximately two dozen stakeholders, representing utilities, generation developers, consumer advocates, environmental groups, landowners, and farmers filed formal comments. In January 2023, the OPSB briefly re-opened the rulemaking for additional comments on proposed setbacks for solar facilities. As part of the rulemaking, the OPSB received over 400 written comments from members of the public. Many of the substantive changes continue, as they were during the workshops and comment period, to be found in Ohio Administrative Code Chapter (“O.A.C.”) 4906-4. As a result of a merger of two current rules chapters, Chapter 4906-4 now applies to certificate applications for electric generation facilities, electric transmission lines, and intrastate gas pipelines. Many of the changes reflect the significant amount of solar development that has occurred in Ohio since the last OPSB rulemaking. As a result, a number of conditions routinely found in certificates issued to solar projects in the recent past have been codified through these rules. In fact, an entire subsection of rules, O.A.C. 4906-4-09(G), applies only to renewable energy – primarily solar – applications.[3] These rules address, among other things: high wind velocity issues, stormwater management, fencing, setbacks, noxious weeds, and landscaping plans. An outline and summary of the major rule revisions within each chapter is included immediately below.[4] Please do not hesitate to contact our team if you have any questions.

Battle over how Ohio regulator spent $4.3 million utility "bribe" continues - Attorneys are continuing to battle over documents regarding how Ohio’s former top utility regulator spent and spoke about $4.3 million he received in 2019. The company paying it later said the money was a bribe made in exchange for official action.Attorneys for the plaintiffs in a class-action suit against Akron-based FirstEnergy want to know what Sam Randazzo, Gov. Mike DeWine’s first appointee to chair the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, did with the money as part of their lawsuit over one of the largest bribery and money laundering conspiracies in Ohio history.FirstEnergy and other Ohio utilities paid more than $60 million through dark money groups between 2017 and 2019 to make then-Rep. Larry Householder, R-Glenford, speaker. From that perch, Householder shepherded and protected a $1.3 billion ratepayer bailout that mostly was intended for FirstEnergy.Householder last month was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison for his role helping to lead the conspiracy. Former GOP Chairman Matt Borges was sentenced to five years for his more minor role. Both men are appealing, while more indictments in the case are expected.The plaintiffs in the class-action suit — a big group of pension and investment funds — are claiming that the reckless conduct of FirstEnergy’s leadership harmed their investments and cost them big money.For its part, FirstEnergy fired several of its top executives and signed adeferred prosecution agreement in 2021 admitting to its role in the conspiracy and agreeing to pay $230 million. The corporation’s new leadership now seems to want to forget the episode.In an interview published Tuesday in the Akron Beacon Journal, new CEO Brian X. Tierney called the racketeering conspiracy a “trauma” and said, “I think the company has done a good job taking responsibility for what happened, entering into a deferred prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice, owning up to what happened, taking steps to ensure that that doesn’t happen again, making changes in management, making additions to management and making sure that something like that never happens here again.”The former private-equity executive added, “So that now allows us to focus on the future and put that past behind us.”Not so fast, the plaintiffs in the class action suit and a few of the fired former executives said in a motion filed on June 30, the same day Borges was sentenced. The plaintiffs joined with former FirstEnergy CEO Chuck Jones and Vice President Michael Dowling in demanding that FirstEnergy produce the report from the internal investigation it conducted after Householder, Borges and others were arrested. Jones and Dowling haven’t been charged, but in court filings, they’ve said they’re objects of the feds’ ongoing investigation. The former executives and the class-action plaintiffs argued that FirstEnergy has selectively disclosed parts of its investigation to throw some employees under the bus, while concealing others to protect executives and board members who are still running the company — despite Tierney’s desire to “put that past behind us.” As part of their effort, the class-action plaintiffs want to know what Randazzo, the former PUCO chairman, did with the $4.3 million that FirstEnergy admitted was a bribe — and what he told others about it during the conspiracy and during the 17 months following Householder’s arrest. Just before and while he was the state’s top regulator, Randazzo played amajor role in drafting legislation providing the corrupt bailout to utilities he was supposed to be overseeing. In a sign that problems persist at the PUCO, the agency was asked during Householder’s trial if it had a policy against commissioners and staff writing utility legislation. It apparently does not.The class-action plaintiffs and Randazzo’s attorneys have been going back and forth since April 5 over what Randazzo must do “to produce any documents regarding the $4.3 million payment within (his) possession, custody, or control.” They’ve also disputed the time period that covers.In May, Randazzo disclosed that he paid about $1.5 million to the U.S. Treasury in taxes. He said he made another $2.1 million in mortgage payments and he lent his daughter’s restaurant $100,000.But even as he did, U.S. Magistrate Judge Kimberly Jolson slammed the former PUCO chairman for what she saw as a lack of cooperation. She wrote that his conduct so far, “does not suggest good-faith compliance with their discovery obligations.”The plaintiffs still want to know what Radazzo was communicating to others about the payment — and not just up until the time his condo was searched in November 2020, but until the end of 2021. In addition, the class-action lawyers demand that Randazzo hire a contractor to search the cloud for communications, instead of simply searching devices from which messages presumably might have been deleted. After all, the class-action attorneys said in a July 14 motion, Randazzo had long been a recipient of FirstEnergy largesse when Gov. Mike DeWine nominated him to be the state’s top utility regulator in early 2019. “FirstEnergy Corp… has admitted that it paid Randazzo (through his two shell entities… ) over $22 million to do nothing — and that money is on top of Randazzo’s earnings from his decades-long career as a lawyer,” the motion said. “Actually, FirstEnergy has admitted that the final $4,333,333 it paid Randazzo was to do something — something illegal by selling out his position as Chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.”

Ohio commission considers state park drilling requests under expedited timeline - A state commission will soon decide whether to greenlight drilling for natural gas under Ohio state parks, wildlife areas, and other state-owned lands.Ohio’s Oil & Gas Land Management Commission is currently considering a dozen applications to extract natural gas from state property under new rules adopted pursuant to a state law that requires it to expedite such requests. Public comments on the first batch of proposals, which include parcels at Salt Fork State Park and Valley Run and Zepernick wildlife areas, are due July 20. Comments on proposals affecting Wolf Run State Park and other parcels are due July 28 or Aug. 11. Rulings could come in the next few months.The commission was created under a 2011 state law that gave agencies the option of directly leasing state property for oil and gas drilling until the commission had leasing procedures in place. A last-minute amendment to an unrelated bill this spring would have automatically mandated agency leases for drilling until the commission adopted procedures and lease terms. A lawsuit by groups opposing that law is pending in the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas.Meanwhile, the commission adopted those rules in May, along with a lease form that took effect on May 28. Drilling proposals started coming in two days later.Gov. Mike DeWine said in January that his administration’s policy against new surface drilling in state parks would continue. However, the new procedures allow applications for horizontal drilling under parks from well pads situated just beyond the surface boundaries of parks and wildlife areas.“A frack rig right outside the park borders is still going to have a major effect on the experience in that park,” said Cathy Cowan Becker, a co-founder of Save Ohio Parks.People come to Ohio parks and wildlife areas for hiking, camping, swimming, boating, fishing and other activities, Becker said, and their use and enjoyment would be adversely affected by lights, noise, increased traffic and air emissions from well pads. Ohio has also had multiple accidents relating to oil and gas. A July 5 oil spill reached the Tuscarawas River, and a July 11 methane leak 20 miles north of the Zepernick Wildlife Area required the evacuation of 450 people.“What if this had happened next to a state park or wildlife area?” Becker said. “How will the ODNR and [Ohio Environmental Protection Agency] evacuate an entire park full of campers, hikers, swimmers, hunters, and tourists? How will the air and water pollution affect these pristine spaces?”Even without accidents, drilling fracked gas from state parks or wildlife areas would affect the resources and habitats there, said environmental scientist Randi Pokladnik. Horizontal fracturing of a formation to get natural gas to flow out requires millions of gallons of water, plus smaller amounts of potentially toxic chemical mixtures whose makeup is kept secret.Those massive amounts of water must come from somewhere. And even if the water did not directly come from a lake where people swim, boat or fish, withdrawing the necessary quantities could lower water levels throughout an area, Pokladnik said. Dust and silt from well pad construction and traffic could also negatively impact species in streams, such as hellbenders, she added.Huge amounts of water do flow back up after fracking, along with substantial concentrations of salt and some radioactive compounds. Trucks transport much of the flowback water to injection wells, where it’s removed from the water cycle, but massive spills have happened, including one in Noble County in 2021. Smaller amounts of wastewater also come up when wells are in production.“We’re open to considering presentations from anyone,” commission chair Ryan Richardson said at the May 15 meeting when the procedures for picking parcels were finalized. And Pokladnik did make a short presentation at the commission’s June 28 meeting. FracTracker’s Great Lakes Program Coordinator Ted Auch also spoke, as well as emergency response and hazardous materials expert Silverio Caggiano, a former battalion chief at the Youngstown Fire Department.By then, the comment period was already running on some of the parcel nominations. One commissioner didn’t show up, another was late, and those who were there “didn’t ask me anything about the issues related to the forest ecosystem,” Pokladnik said.

Decisions on Drilling Under OH State Parks Coming “Next Few Months” | Marcellus Drilling News - In early June, shale drillers could, for the first time, begin to apply for permits to drill under (not on top of) Ohio state lands and state parks under newly formulated rules established by the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management (OGLM) Commission (see Ohio State Lands Now Open for O&G Leasing – Virtual Ribbon-Cutting). So far, at least 12 applications have been received by the OGLM to drill under state lands, including Ohio’s Salt Fork State Park (seeTiny Group Protests Fracking Under Ohio’s Salt Fork State Park). When will the OGLM decide whether (or not) to award contracts for drilling? We have an answer.

OH Court to Rule on Challenge of Law Allowing Drilling Under Parks | Marcellus Drilling News -- In January, Ohio House Bill (HB) 507 became law with the signature of Gov. Mike DeWine (see OH Gov. Signs Bill Expanding Drilling in State Parks, NatGas “Green”). The new law allows shale drilling under (but not on top of) Ohio state-owned land. HB 507 encourages (pushes for) more drilling under state-owned land. Even though drilling on state-owned land is about to become a reality thanks to this law, it was another provision of HB 507 that torqued off the Big Green Left even more–officially recognizing natural gas energy as “green” energy. It still bothers them, and they’ve gone to court to get it changed.

Declaring gas ‘green’ violated Ohio constitution, groups argue An Ohio court is set to rule on whether legislators violated the state constitution with late additions to a poultry bill that labeled natural gas as “green energy” and changed prior law to accelerate oil and gas drilling from state parks and wildlife areas.Multiple drilling proposals are now pending, with public comments due on the first batch of parcels by July 20. While the court case has not blocked those proposals, the litigation could eliminate the “green energy” label and affect how lawmakers pass future bills.Briefing wrapped up last month on environmental groups’ request for the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas to declare lawmakers’ passage of House Bill 507 violated two constitutional requirements. One says “no bill shall contain more than one subject.” The other requires each house in the General Assembly to consider each bill on three different days unless two-thirds of the respective house suspends the rule.HB 507 began as a two-page bill to reduce the number of chicks sold in lots from six to three. The bill swelled to 88 pages by the time the Senate passed it on Dec 7, just one day after multiple amendments were proposed for the first time, including the natural gas provisions plus other amendments ranging from the use of pesticides on private property to towing cars in conservancy districts.Gov. Mike DeWine noted the expansion of the bill’s subjects when he signed HB 507 into law on Jan. 6: “While the bill initially involved agricultural issues, amendments were added regarding drilling and natural gas issues.”“The purpose of the one-subject rule is to protect the rights of Ohioans to participate in the democratic process by making it clearer what bills the state legislature is working on,” said attorney Claire Taigman at Earthjustice, which is acting as counsel for the Buckeye Environmental Network, Ohio Valley Allies, Sierra Club and Ohio Environmental Council.And while the state Senate held three hearings on the bill before the December amendments, those hearings dealt only with the poultry provision and some food safety amendments added by the House.The substitute bill reported out by the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee on Dec. 7 was a “vitally altered” bill, the environmental groups said in their brief. Instead of having more hearings and time for public comment, the bulk of the bill’s text “went from non-existent to enacted” in less than a week. Spokesperson Steve Irwin said the Office of the Ohio Attorney General does not have any additional comments for this article beyond its court filings. The state’s briefclaimed HB 507 satisfies both the one-subject and three-consideration rules.“Land use, energy development, protection of natural resources, and conservation are undeniably linked to agriculture,” the state’s lawyers wrote, arguing that the single-subject rule was satisfied.And those claimed links meant no more hearings were needed under the three-consideration rule, the state’s lawyers argued. “From its introduction until its enactment, HB 507 had a common purpose of amending Ohio’s agriculture laws,” the brief said.Taigman is not buying it.“No definition of ‘Agriculture,’ including the one in Ohio statutory law, encompasses mineral extraction activity such as gas production and development,” she said. The state’s argument also “defeats the entire purpose of the one-subject rule because there is no way for a person to know what subjects a bill actually covers when a category is so broad and vague.”

Kinder Morgan Projecting 20 Bcf/d of U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth by 2028 Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) is forecasting U.S. natural gas demand to grow by about 20 Bcf/d or 20% between 2023 and 2028 to roughly 121 Bcf/d, Executive Chairman Rich Kinder said Wednesday. “We expect 13.5 Bcf/d of that growth to come from LNG and Mexico exports, with moderate growth in the power, residential and commercial sectors,” Kinder said during the midstream giant’s second quarter earnings call. Kinder, who co-founded the firm in 1997, explained that, “while we’re bullish about the long-term future of Kinder Morgan, the single most important reason for optimism is the role natural gas will play in this country and around the world in the coming decades.”

Strs Ohio Cuts Position in Kinder Morgan, Inc. - Strs Ohio (State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio) trimmed its position in shares of Kinder Morgan, Inc. by 1.8% during the first quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The firm owned 896,949 shares of the pipeline company’s stock after selling 16,818 shares during the period. Strs Ohio’s holdings in Kinder Morgan were worth $15,705,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

Chester, Pa., Residents Fight Proposed LNG Facility - Democrats in Pennsylvania had promised to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but former Gov. Tom Wolf and members of his administration met with Penn America Energy to help shepherd its plans as early as 2016. Republican lawmakers, for their part, formed the Philadelphia LNG Export Task Force in November 2022 to study plans for the proposed facility. The task force is stacked with industry executives, including one from the American Petroleum Institute, which launched a global campaign to promote liquefied natural gas as “clean” energy in 2020.Once the plan for the LNG facility became public, community members, including Mayfield, were barred from testifying at public hearings. Instead, the task force hosted presentations byindustry players, including former Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, who now co-chairs an industry-funded nonprofit advocacy group that pushes for natural gas.The proposed facility could have terrifying consequences for a city already burdened with intense health and economic disparities brought on in part by other energy facilities like the Covanta incinerator, Mayfield said. “This thing is so scary to me,” she said of the LNG proposal. “Out of all the things we’ve ever fought outside of the incinerator, the safety issue for this thing is dangerous to me.”With President Joe Biden intensifying the quest to make the U.S. the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, similar scenes are playing out in old industry towns across the nation. Residents in Florida’s North Port St. Joe were surprised last year when they learned that their efforts to restore the community were running up against secret plans by officials and energy executives to build a new liquefied natural gas facility. Environmental groups failed to stop another liquefied natural gas facility in Louisiana’s Plaquemines Parish, south of New Orleans. And community organizers in Gibbstown, New Jersey, across the river from Chester, have been fighting another proposed liquefied natural gas export terminal since 2019; the project is currently on hold after a federal agency declined to renew its permit earlier this year.The Biden administration has amplified calls to expand the production of liquefied natural gas to ease a shortage in Europefollowing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Republican lawmaker who started the task force to explore the proposed liquefied natural gas plan in Chester said she did so after the Russian invasion with hopes that Pennsylvania could help fill the void. Some environmental groups, though, have described the Ukraine war as a false pretense to ramp up fossil fuel production. The groups criticized Biden for echoing calls to boost liquefied natural gas production made by former President Donald Trump and leaving Trump-era regulatory rollbacks in place.

800,000 Tons of Drilling, Frack Waste Unaccounted for in NY-PA-OH | Marcellus Drilling News - Researchers with the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) recently published a study in the journal Ecological Indicators. The study’s intent was to measure whether or not frack waste dumped in local landfills has radiation that is leaking out in groundwater (leachate) from those facilities. Research like this, if legitimate (and accurate), is a good thing. We need to know if the waste we’re dumping is causing a problem. But a funny thing happened during the study. The researchers found a big problem with recordkeeping.

Study finds 800,000 tons of drilling, fracking waste unaccounted for in NY, PA, Ohio -- Sanitary landfills in Pennsylvania can accept the liquid waste byproducts of drilling and fracking for oil and gas as long as it is "immobilized," mixed with wood chips or sawdust, for example.This waste can contain high levels of heavy metals, like arsenic; salts such as chloride and bromide; and naturally occurring radioactive materials.Sanitary landfills are those designed to let waste decompose; they are not necessarily designed to manage radioactive waste.A collaborative research study led by Daniel Bain, University of Pittsburgh associate professor of geology and environmental science, analyzed records as well as soil samples to better understand the effects of disposing of this waste in facilities that were not built to contain radioactive waste.The team, in an article written in Ecological Indicators by Lauren Badertscher, then a masters student at Duquesne University and now with the EPA, found that poor records and a lack of monitoring are a barrier to fully understanding the impact of this method of immobilized oil and gas waste disposal.Sediment samples taken upstream and downstream from 17 facilities that treat water from landfills in New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania—all states that accepted such waste in 2019, when the samples were taken—often showed elevated levels of radium, implicating the wastewater as a its source.Discharge permits for these landfills do not commonly require monitoring of materials found in oil and gas waste.The research team sought out reports to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Oil and Gas Division from oil and gas wells, indicating that they shipped wastewater to sanitary landfills in New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.They also analyzed records from the environmental agencies of New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania documenting the acceptance of oil and gas wastewater.When the researchers compared the two, they found that, at the very best, there was still a 30% discrepancy between records of what was sent and what was received.Almost half of the landfills examined had either a record of shipment or a record of receipt, but no associated record on the other end in 2019. When totaled, these gaps in record keeping leave over 800,000 metric tons of oil and gas waste unaccounted for.Researchers concluded that insufficient regulatory recordkeeping and a lack of mandatory monitoring and testing are a barrier to fully understanding the impact on local water systems of sanitary landfills accepting wastewater resulting from drilling and fracking for oil and gas."The mismatch in regulatory records creates the potential for contamination," Bain said. "And while we don't have the data to unambiguously tie increases in stream sediment radium to disposal of these wastes in landfills, the observations clearly indicated we should really start scrutinizing, and probably rethink, the disposal of oil and gas waste in landfills."

11 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 3-9 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued for Jul 3-9 in the Marcellus/Utica saw a dramatic decrease after posting a dramatic increase the week before. There were 11 new permits issued last week, way down from the 39 issued the previous week. Last week’s permit tally included a scant 3 new permits in Pennsylvania, 3 new permits in Ohio, and 5 new permits in West Virginia. The top permittee for the week was Northeast Natural Energy, receiving 5 permits in Monongalia County, WV. ASCENT RESOURCES | BUTLER COUNTY | CNX RESOURCES | GUERNSEY COUNTY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | LOLA ENERGY | MONONGALIA COUNTY | NORTHEAST NATURAL ENERGY / SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY July 14, 2023

17 New Shale Well Permits Issued for OH-WV (Not PA) Jul 10-16 - Marcellus Drilling News - We’re trying not to sound too PO’d (personally offended) here, but once again, in what seems to be an every month or two occurrence, the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection’s (DEP) online oil and gas permitting database is throwing an error. So, we are left with no permit numbers for PA for the week of July 10-16. Neither the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) reporting system nor the West Virginia DEP reporting system have these problems. It is only the PA DEP that routinely goes “off the air.” Why is that? [Rant over] Even without PA’s numbers, OH and WV combined issued 17 permits last week, versus the pathetic 11 total from the prior week that included PA. ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | GULFPORT ENERGY | HILCORP ENERGY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | NOBLE COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY

Gas Production From Utica, Marcellus Projected to Decline - Youngtown Business Journal – Production of natural gas across the Utica/Point Pleasant and Marcellus shale is expected to decline next month, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas output from horizontal wells drilled across eastern Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – collectively called the Appalachian basin – is projected to decline from 35.345 billion cubic feet a day in July to 35.329 billion cubic feet per day during August, a difference of 16 million cubic feet per day, EIA said in its monthly drilling report. Oil production across Appalachia is expected to remain flat at 147,000 barrels of oil per day over the next month, EIA reported. During the first quarter, Columbiana County reported a significant increase in oil production because of four wells that were recently placed into production in Hanover Township. The wells target the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation in eastern Ohio. Three of the other six major shale formations in the country project lower natural gas production in August. The Anadarko in Oklahoma projected a decline of 64 million cubic feet per day. The Eagle Ford in Texas expects a drop of 42 million cubic feet per day. The Haynesville shale in Texas and northwestern Louisiana projects gas production to drop by 50 million cubic feet per day. Total production among the seven major shale plays is expected to decline by 100 million cubic feet per day in August. Collectively, these shale regions project oil production to drop by 18,000 barrels per day, according to EIA’s report.

EIA July DPR: Shale Gas Production Predicted to Drop in August | Marcellus Drilling News - The latest monthly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for July issued yesterday (below) shows the EIA believes shale gas production across the seven major plays tracked in the monthly DPR for August will *decrease* production from the prior month of July. This is the first month-over-month decrease prediction for the combined seven plays since December. EIA says combined natgas production will slide by 100 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day). The Marcellus/Utica, called “Appalachia” in the report, is predicted to slump by 16 MMcf/d in August from July.

The Reason PA Shale Production has Flatlined? No Pipelines -Marcellus Drilling News -Last week we told you that the shale production situation in Pennsylvania has caught the eye of the number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (see EIA Observes M-U Gas Production Flat, Key PA Counties in Decline). Production in PA, overall, is flat and possibly decreasing. Nationally, production is up in other plays and states. So why is PA’s production flatlining? In a phrase, lack of pipelines.

An Export Terminal for Natural Gas is Essential in Southeast PA – DV Journal - Earl Baker -When I was in the Senate of Pennsylvania, representing Chester County years ago, and serving as xhairman of the labor and industry committee, we became aware of the Marcellus Shale, the massive natural gas play that spans a sizeable portion of Pennsylvania. At the time, we did not realize its full potential, although we knew it was something good for our state and wanted to know more about it. Fast forward to today, when Pennsylvania is the second top producer of natural gas, behind only Texas. The policy decisions made so many years ago are now hitting us squarely as a region, state and nation. Our future depends on our ability to take the product of the Marcellus Shale, natural gas, and get it to those who need and want it. In its liquefied form, or LNG, can be shipped stored and used for production. Although Pennsylvania is a major producer of natural gas, exporting LNG to Europe and other distant markets is not happening within the state. To do this efficiently, we need a Southeast Pennsylvania LNG shipping depot, and on a scale that’s capable of serving the world. We need bipartisan cooperation to make this happen, however, and there is a lot to say favorably about the current governor and the General Assembly’s intent. Earlier this year, a Philadelphia LNG Export Task Force was formed with bipartisan support to come up with concrete aims and suggestions that will be captured in a final report expected later this year. As my friend Jeff Kotula, president of the Washington County (near Pittsburgh) Chamber, major drilling source in the state, likes to say, about Pennsylvania, “The power to prosper is under our feet!” Only Texas has more natural gas than we do, and when you add our two states, only Saudi Arabia has more than the US. Pipelines are valuable to get the drilled gas from its production areas in Ohio, West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania. The west to east pipeline is invaluable. In fact, pipelines are more efficient than trucks or railroad cars, which are also used to ship gas. Additional pipeline capacity may be needed to move natural gas to the southeast region of Pennsylvania to ship overseas. Having an LNG export facility will help address the need for energy as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues and rebalancing of energy supplies occurs. Like the beginning of the shale revolution, we must have reasonable policies in place to encourage natural gas drilling and infrastructure for transporting exporting LNG from the southeast. Developing and shipping our resources will make Pennsylvania even more prosperous.

Aborted Epiphany PA Wastewater Plant Resurrected w/PENNVEST Loan | Marcellus Drilling News --We love a good “back from the dead” story. In 2017 Epiphany Water Solutions (aka Epiphany Environmental, LLC) filed for a permit to build a centralized oil and gas wastewater treatment facility in Coudersport (Potter County), PA (see Shale Wastewater Treatment Plant Planned for Potter County, PA). The Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) held a public hearing on the proposed facility in January 2018. From that time on, the environmental left launched a smear campaign to defeat it, which subsequently happened in April 2018. But what’s this? Epiphany has just received a $6.1 million loan from the Gov. Shapiro administration to build a similar (same?) plant several counties away–in Clarion County, PA.

Iroquois Natural Gas Upgrades in New York, Connecticut Facing Delays as Permits Languish - Iroquois Gas Transmission LP’s natural gas compression upgrade project, designed to supply New York City with an additional 125 MMcf/d, may be delayed as it awaits required air permits from state agencies, according to Iroquois management. Iroquois in 2020 filed applications for two Air State Facility permits with the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). The permits would allow the company to add 24,000 hp of compression and associated facilities at the existing Dover and Athens stations as part of an Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project. DEC has “not yet made a final determination regarding the project’s consistency with Section 7 of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act),” a spokesperson told NGI. The law requires.

House GOP Pushes Back on Radical ESG by BlackRock, Others --Marcellus Drilling News - As we point out in another story today about Olympus Energy selling its “responsible gas” via a deal with Tenaska, what the left means by ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) and what the shale industry means by ESG, are two different things. When companies like BlackRock talk about forcing the companies they invest in to toe the line with respect to ESG, it means forcing those companies to divest from fossil energy. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are pushing back hard against investor ESG nonsense because it threatens the retirement funds of this country’s massive middle class.

Mountain Valley Pipeline developers escalate legal fight over project to Supreme Court wvgazettemail.com In 2018, United States Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts issued an opinion finding the court must resist any effort by lawmakers to “seize the judicial power” for themselves.Now Mountain Valley Pipeline developers are asking Roberts to find that Congress didn’t violate the U.S. Constitution by passing a law prohibiting judicial review of federal approvals of the pipeline being challenged in court to force the project’s completion.

Manchin, GOP deputy whip back request for Supreme Court to intervene over Mountain Valley pipeline Lawmakers from both parties are calling on the Supreme Court to intervene over the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would stretch from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia, but it has faced legal opposition from environmentalists. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Republican Chief Deputy Whip Guy Reschenthaler (Pa.) have filed amicus briefs with the Supreme Court in support of the controversial pipeline, which was approved in the debt limit deal earlier this year. Last week, the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Va., granted a stay on construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a natural gas project championed by Manchin. The deal to raise the debt ceiling in June included a provision approving the pipeline and transferring jurisdiction over the matter to a Washington, D.C., appeals court. In response, the company behind the pipeline filed an emergency request Monday asking Chief Justice John Roberts to intervene, citing the provision in the debt deal. Roberts has the option of either deciding on the matter himself or putting it to the court for a full vote. Manchin filed the brief in support of the request Tuesday, while Reschenthaler filed his own Wednesday. “It’s a shame when members of Congress have to ask the Supreme Court to intervene to maintain the credibility of the laws that we have passed and the President has signed, but I am confident that the Court will uphold our laws and allow construction of [the Mountain Valley Pipeline] to resume,” Manchin said in a statement. Reschenthaler added in his own statement Wednesday that “[t]he Fourth Circuit judges are not supreme rulers and lawful orders issued by the legislative and executive branches must be followed. Congress was well within its power to restart the Mountain Valley Pipeline construction and usher in a new era of energy independence for the region.” “Instead of halting the pipeline, I urge the Supreme Court to plug up the ludicrous activism seeping out of the lower court so American families can enjoy lower energy costs, substantial land royalties, and most importantly — law and order in America,” he added.

MVP appeals construction delay to the U.S. Supreme Court -The U.S. Supreme Court is being asked to overrule a decision that stopped construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which remains stuck in a legal quagmire.Attorneys for Mountain Valley filed an emergency appeal late Friday afternoon that seeks to reverse two stays issued earlier this week by the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.With the Supreme Court on its summer recess, the case is expected to go to Chief Justice John Roberts, who could either decide the matter himself or refer it to the full court, lawyers said.The appeal states that a three-judge panel of the Fourth Circuit issued “two extraordinary stay orders” that defy the clear language of a law passed by Congress last month that was expected to fast-track completion of the natural gas pipeline. “Congress has made clear that there is a paramount national interest in expeditious completion of the pipeline,” the 35-page filing states. “And Congress was equally clear that the Fourth Circuit may not exercise jurisdiction” over two lawsuits that were filed before the law was passed.The Fourth Circuit gave no reason for its decisions, issued Monday and Tuesday, that ordered a halt to construction just as work crews were returning to Southwest Virginia.But a key question – which now may be decided by the nation’s highest court – is whether Congress violated the separation of powers outlined in the U.S. Constitution by asserting its power over that of the courts, according to earlier legal filings.

Pipeline project is now at center of constitutional question: Can Congress halt judicial review? - WV MetroNews - Construction on the Mountain Valley Pipeline has been halted again because of a big constitutional question: Can the legislative branch forbid the judicial branch from reviewing whether the project is in line with federal environmental laws? Late last week, the pipeline’s developers asked Chief Justice John Roberts to intervene on the question. Lawyers for Mountain Valley Pipeline asked Roberts for an emergency reversal of an appeals court stay. Their argument was that Congress had been clear, that the pipeline could not be held up any longer by the courts. “The court of appeals lacked jurisdiction to grant the relief it ordered (or any other). Even assuming that court had jurisdiction, Congress has ratified the underlying agency actions and superseded any provision of law that could have conceivably served as a basis for relief,” lawyers for the pipeline wrote in their application for Roberts to intervene. “The court of appeals’ stay orders flew in the face of this recent, on-point, and emphatic congressional command that the remaining construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline must proceed without further delay because ‘construction and operation of the [Project] is required in the national interest.'” The application for the chief justice ratchets the question up a big notch after a three-judge panel of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a stay of pipeline construction last week. That took place in two related cases where a national environmental organization challenged whether Congress had overstepped its authority. The appeals judges consolidated the two cases brought by the Wilderness Society and set oral arguments for 10 a.m. July 27 at the Lewis F. Powell Jr. Federal Courthouse in Richmond, Va. The appeals judges in the case are Roger Gregory, James Wynn and Stephanie Thacker, a West Virginian. The pipeline’s developer, Equitrans Midstream, is asking for a decision at the Supreme Court level even before that, though, saying any slowdown in the court system imperils the likelihood of finally completing the project before winter sets in. Senator Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., agreed that the Supreme Court predicted last week that the Supreme Court would wind up with the pipeline case. Capito, who has supported the pipeline’s completion, contended congress was on solid ground by mandating the approval of the project’s remaining permits in legislation that was signed by President Biden. “This was gone over with a fine-tooth comb by all the constitutional lawyers here. It was signed by the president of the United States and, I’m sure, gone over by his constitutional lawyers as well,” Capito said to reporters during an online news briefing. “I think we will see a challenge of the stay in the Supreme Court, although I don’t think that’s been issued yet, and I think it will be successful.” Capito contended the appeals judges have disrupted the pipeline’s progress too often to be taken at face value. “The Fourth Circuit has shown more than a few times, particularly in this process, that they are working on an agenda here. You’re supposed to have a system that you have random judges out of the 15 judges,” Capito said. “Every time mountain valley pipeline comes before that court, they have the same three judges who are who issue the same decisions, which is stay. They’re obviously opposed to this, and they’re working on a political agenda.”

As Mountain Valley Pipeline Debate Continues, Who Really Wants It? - West Virginia Public Broadcasting : West Virginia Public Broadcasting (podcast & transcript) Congress tried to have the last word on the Mountain Valley Pipeline, requiring all federal permits to be issued for the 300-mile natural gas pipeline in a deal lawmakers approved last month. However, the Fourth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals stepped in to block new construction on the project. Ultimately, the pipeline may get built. The pipeline’s builders have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene, and a decision may come before the end of this month.But some energy analysts question whether the pipeline is even needed. Curtis Tate spoke with Suzanne Mattei of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis for her perspective. This interview was edited for clarity and length.

Tate: Who is pushing for this pipeline? Where is the gas ultimately going?
Mattei: We’ve said from the start, that this was not a good idea. This was a very expensive pipeline, going through very sensitive terrain. And that there was not a compelling need. There was not a big line of people saying we need this gas, bring this gas to us; the pipeline was driven by gas producers. So you know, when you think about energy need, there’s two ends of it. Someone has energy resources, they feel a need to extract those and sell them someplace to make money. But do the customers need it? Are they begging for it? This pipeline was not driven by utility need, it was driven by supplier need. That was our view, when we first analyzed the pipeline project back in 2016. And we haven’t really seen anything to change our view of that at this point.
Tate: What should have happened? Could any particular agency have given the project a more thorough examination?
Mattei: This project should have been much more thoroughly examined from the get go at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which is supposed to actually evaluate need and alternatives. They’re the ones that are supposed to really do that right from the start. And they never did. So there was a whole lot of debate that just never happened. I saw the same problem with the Williams pipeline that was supposed to run from Pennsylvania to New York. And the good thing there was that the state public service commission did its own evaluation of alternatives in connection with deciding whether they were going to allow ratepayers to have to pay for the capital expenses of the pipeline, and that’s how it was stopped.

Gas developer hits brakes on hotly contested LNG terminal - For the past year, residents in Port St. Joe, Florida have been fighting to stop a liquefied natural gas terminal from being built on the town’s Gulf Coast shore. Now, community members say they’re breathing a sigh of relief.Nopetro Energy, the Miami-based company that had proposed constructing the LNG terminal, said it was no longer moving forward with the $100-million-plus project.According to the company, Nopetro “conducted due diligence” last year on the potential LNGsite — a 60-acre waterfront lot that for many decades hosted the town’s paper mill. The land is just a mile away from the historically Black neighborhood in the northern part of Port St. Joe, where residents are still grappling with the toxic legacy left behind by the St. Joe Paper Company.Nopetro, whose stated mission is to “end petroleum dependency,” had proposed building a “small-scale” terminal to compress and chill fossil gas, then load it onto cargo ships bound for countries in the Caribbean and Central and South America. The project would have initially exported about 3.86 billion cubic feet of LNG per year, with the potential to expand.After completing its review, the company “decided to no longer pursue the opportunity, purely due to market conditions,” Ed Hart, Nopetro’s senior vice president of supply, said in a statement provided to Canary Media this week.The decision comes as the United States is exporting record-breaking amounts of LNG, a trend that threatens not only the country’s own goals for cutting planet-warming emissions but international climate targets as well. Nearly all of that LNG moves through large-scale export terminals in the U.S. Gulf Coast, though in recent years developers have pushed to build more smaller-scale facilities that serve specific markets.Hart said that Nopetro made up its mind “many months ago” to halt plans for an LNG facility in Port St. Joe. The project’s opponents say they only learned of Nopetro’s decision earlier this week after local outlets like the Port St. Joe Star newspaper reported the development. Still, some observers had anticipated the move. In May, the St. Joe Company, which owns the former paper mill site, said in a shareholder meeting that Nopetro hadn’t signed a lease agreement for the LNG facility.Community activists counted Nopetro’s about-face as a victory.

North American Natural Gas, Oil Prices ‘Firming Up’ and E&Ps Eyeing Long Term, Says Halliburton CEO - - Worldwide demand for natural gas and oil remains solid, demonstrating the “critical” role that fossil fuels continue to play in the economy, according to Halliburton Co. CEO Jeff Miller. However, to sustain the long-term energy demand, it’s going to take “sustained capital investment,” he told investors on Wednesday during the second quarter 2023 conference call. “Commodity prices remain attractive,” Miller said. “When I talk to customers, they expect to work more, not less, and many of their activity plans extend into the next decade. Customers are settling in for a long-duration upcycle.”

Maximum Extraction: Shale Development Enters a New Era - Today’s unconventional oil and gas developments bear scant resemblance to those of a decade ago, and experts designing new technologies say things will look even more different in the next few years.That’s because the focus of operators has shifted from maximizing production to maximizing shareholder distribution and reducing debt, said Ryan Duman, Wood Mackenzie’s director of upstream research.“That has shifted the focus to technologies that improve efficiency,” he told Hart Energy.Partly, that stems from operators acquiring step-out acreage and adding to their inventories between 2016 and 2019.“Now, they need to find the most efficient way to harvest what they already have, and that means doing more with less,” Duman said.For many companies, that has meant exploring ways to leverage automation software and AI to streamline operations.“Using data captured in real time, 24/7, provides a clearer picture of operations, which leads to better decision-making,” Duman said.Operators are using operational data to fine-tune processes and are applying advanced analytics to real-time data, monitoring the performance of tools and equipment, and decreasing downtime through predictive maintenance.“The market demand for ESG reporting is another driver that has made operators more bullish for technology such as electric equipment, on-site gas turbines to generate electricity, no-bleed pneumatics, and lower-emitting kits,” he said, noting that reducing the environmental footprint of operations and improving economics are sometimes competing priorities.Despite the challenges, Duman said the industry overall has embraced ESG, and companies are making changes that allow them to market themselves attractively to investors.“They are reducing methane and flaring, and the cost of the technologies that are helping them achieve those goals is more than offset with incremental revenue gains,” he said.Wood Mackenzie will continue to watch refracturing and EOR technologies, which Duman believes are ripe for greater innovation.“Because of the potential benefits associated with 45Q [tax] credits, there is going to be a push for CCUS development as well,” he said, referring to carbon capture, utilization and sequestration. “This tends to make sense from a core competency standpoint because companies can leverage in-house knowledge.”

Mercuria Jumps on Zefiro's Carbon Credit Trading Program Using Abandoned Wells - Zefiro Methane Corp., which plugs orphaned and abandoned oil and gas wells in North America to create carbon credits, has pre-sold some of the portfolio to trader Mercuria Energy America LLC. Zefiro’s current projects include plugging abandoned or orphaned wells in the Appalachian Basin and Texas-Louisiana-Mississippi Salt Basins.“For too long, investors have not had routine access to reduction activities that display proven pathways to reducing harmful oil and gas emissions,” said Mercuria Energy’s Adam Raphaely, managing director for Trading. The transaction with Zefiro allows Mercuria to align “with the core principles of many of our customers,” while also “fostering innovative projects.”

Louisiana Regulators Cite Venture Global for Unauthorized Emissions at Calcasieu Pass LNG - The Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) has ordered Venture Global LNG Inc. to better comply with its air permits and state regulations after a series of unauthorized emissions occurred at its Calcasieu Pass export terminal last year. The company could face steep fines following a compliance order and notice of potential penalty DEQ issued late last month following inspections and a review of the findings. Venture Global reported the release of 180,099 pounds of natural gas that occurred over three days in January 2022. The discharge resulted during the commissioning of a liquefied natural gas storage tank. Instead of flaring the gas as originally planned, DEQ’s compliance order noted that a roof vent was used on the tank to release the gas.

Company confirms funding for massive gas terminal at Port of Brownsville After years of delays, an industrial developer said this week that it has secured funding to proceed with construction of a massive new gas liquefaction plant and export terminal in the wild greenfields and wetlands of the Rio Grande delta.Houston-based NextDecade says it has secured $5.9 billion in financing from international partners to begin work on the terminal’s first three compressors to liquify natural gas from Texas’ shale fields for export on global markets.When completed, five giant compressor units, each designed to process 5.4 million metric tons of liquified natural gas per year, will make the 750-acre Rio Grande LNG facility among the largest gas export terminals in the world.Its location in the Port of Brownsville — the last major deepwater port in Texas that remains without large fossil fuel projects — will complete the energy sector’s coastal sprawl from Louisiana to Mexico. Once constructed in several years, Rio Grande LNG will join the growing Gulf Coast energy export boom, which has pushed oil and gas production in Texas to record high levels.In the Wednesday announcement, NextDecade CEO Matt Schatzman called the financing agreement “a landmark event reflecting years of hard work and dedication by NextDecade’s employees, shareholders, construction partners, equipment suppliers, and customers.”One of the project funders, Abu Dabi-based Mubadala, called the deal “the largest greenfield energy project financing in U.S. history.”Seven such LNG export terminals have cropped up on U.S. coastlines in the last seven years, according to the Energy Information Agency. Another three are under construction and another 11 have been approved by federal regulators.Along with the Rio Grande terminal, the planned Rio Bravo Pipeline will deliver 4.5 billion cubic feet of Permian gas per day to the South Texas coast, where compressor trains at Rio Grande LNG will super-cool the gas to minus-260 degrees Fahrenheit and then load it onto ocean-going tankers for sale overseas. The facility will occupy 750 acres of greenfield, including 182 acres of wetlands, on a 984-acre waterfront tract.Initially scheduled for completion in 2023, yearslong delays have plagued the project. Campaigns by local activists and indigenous leaders prompted three French banks, SMBC Group, BNP Paribas and Société Générale, to withdraw their financial commitments. Three nearby municipalities of Laguna Vista, South Padre Island and Port Isabel adopted resolutions opposing the project.A federal court ordered regulators to modify the conditions of their approval following challengesby local organizers who hoped to preserve the Rio Grande Delta as the last major inlet on the Gulf Coast of Texas still free from fossil fuel facilities like refineries, chemical plants and terminals.“The oil and gas companies and the politicians can’t find it in their hearts to keep the industry in an industrial space,” said Lela Burnell, the daughter of a shrimper in the Port of Brownsville and the plaintiff in multiple lawsuits against plans for Rio Grande LNG. “Why do they feel like they need to just inundate and take over the whole coast? They don’t want to leave one spot where there is a sanctuary or a safe zone for nature.”

TotalEnergies Makes Final Investment Decision on Rio Grande LNG | Rigzone - TotalEnergies SE and its partners have made a final investment decision to develop the first phase of the Rio Grande LNG natural gas liquefaction project in South Texas, the company said in a news release. The first phase of the Rio Grande LNG project involves three liquefaction trains with a total capacity of 17.5 million tons per annum (mtpa) and capital expenditure of $14.8 billion, according to the news release. Plant commissioning is targeted for 2027, and TotalEnergies will offtake 5.4 Mtpa of LNG from the production of this phase for 20 years. The French energy company is partnered with Global Infrastructure Partners, NextDecade, GIC, and Mubadala for the project. The project will be financed by equity contributions from the partners and by a debt contribution from an undisclosed “international banks’ consortium”, according to the release. Bechtel has been given the engineering, procurement, and construction contract. TotalEnergies will acquire a 16.67 percent stake in the joint venture in charge of the project’s first phase and will allot $1.1 billion in equity contributions. The company will also hold a 17.5 percent stake in NextDecade for a total amount of $219 million. TotalEnergies acquired the first tranche of 5.06 percent in June and is set to increase the stake to 12.47 percent “in the next few days”, according to the release. It will acquire the third tranche of 5.03 percent before the end of 2023. According to the company website, TotalEnergies is the world’s third-largest LNG player with a market share of around 12 percent and a global portfolio of about 50 million tons per year. It targets to increase the share of natural gas in its sales mix to close to 50 percent by 2030. In a separate news release, TotalEnergies said it started production in the first phase of Azerbaijan’s Absheron gas and condensate field in the Caspian Sea. The company is partnered with the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) for the project. The first phase connects a subsea production well to a new gas processing platform, which is linked to SOCAR’s existing facilities in Oil Rocks. It has a production capacity of 141.3 million cubic feet (4.0 million cubic meters of gas) per day and 12,000 barrels a day of condensate. The gas will be sold in the domestic market in Azerbaijan, according to the release.

Borderlands: $18B LNG export terminal project moves forward at Texas seaport -- Energy producer NextDecade Corp. said on Wednesday it’s moving ahead with construction of a multibillion dollar liquefied natural gas export terminal at the Port of Brownsville in South Texas.The Houston-based company’s Rio Grande LNG terminal at the port will consist of five compressor units once completed, with each designed to process 5.4 million metric tons of LNG per year, making the 984-acre facility among the largest LNG exporters in the world.“We look forward to delivering this important LNG project that will supply the world with reliable and lower-carbon intensive LNG,” Matt Schatzman, NextDecade’s chairman and CEO, said in a news release. “Now our focus turns to safely constructing Phase 1 on time and on budget.”The Rio Grande LNG terminal project’s total cost for the first phase is $18.4 billion. NextDecade said it has secured almost $6 billion in financing from international partners to begin work on the project’s first three compressors to LNG from Texas’ shale fields for export on global markets.Houston-based NextDecade Corp.’s Rio Grande LNG terminal will be among the largest gas export terminals in the world once completed. (Image: NextDecade)NextDecade’s partners in the project include French oil giant TotalEnergies and financial investors Global Infrastructure Partners, GIC and Mubadala Investment Co.The company did not specify a completion date for the first phase of the project during Wednesday’s announcement. NextDecade initially planned to begin construction of the Rio Grande LNG terminal last year, with a target completion date of 2026.Officials for the Port of Brownsville said the Rio Grande LNG terminal will transform South Texas and the state’s trade with the world.Located 277 miles south of San Antonio at the southernmost tip of Texas along the Gulf of Mexico, the Port of Brownsville is the only deep-water seaport located along the border, making it a major trade channel between Texas and Mexico.“The Rio Grande LNG facility will be a true game-changer for our community, representing a generational achievement,” Eduardo A. Campirano, the port’s director and CEO, said in a news release. “Its impact will be enormous, significantly benefiting the energy industry of Texas.”

U.S. Continues to Drive Global LNG Supply Additions, GIIGNL Says - The United States is likely to become the world’s largest LNG exporter this year, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). (see global table) The United States added 8.4 million tons (Mt) of new volumes to global supply last year, or nearly one-half the 16.9 Mt added by other LNG producers across the world, according to GIIGNL’s annual report. The country was the third largest LNG exporter in 2023 (75.4 Mt), behind Australia (78.5 Mt) and Qatar (79 Mt). Russia was the fourth largest exporter at 32 Mt. U.S. LNG supplies grew by 12.6% year/year in 2022, driven by the ramp up of Train 6 at the Sabine Pass LNG terminal and the commissioning of the Calcasieu Pass plant, both in Louisiana. GIIGNL said the U.S. gains would have been stronger without prolonged...

NextDecade’s $18.4B Path to FID Weighing on Prospects for Other U.S. LNG Export Projects - NextDecade Corp.’s recent decision to move ahead with the Rio Grande LNG project in South Texas came with a staggering $18.4 billion price tag that could ultimately rise further as five export projects are now underway along the Gulf Coast. The company crossed the finish line by completing what it said was the “largest greenfield energy project financing in U.S. history” for the first 17.6 million metric tons/year (mmty) phase of Rio Grande. Project costs were driven by a host of factors that have been exacerbated in the post-pandemic era, including inflation, supply chain issues, labor shortages and a competitive market crowded with more than 20 proposed export projects in the United States alone. Similarly sized 15 mmty projects that came online in 2019, such as the...

US natgas prices jump 5% as brutal heatwave lingers (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Tuesday on forecasts for the weather to remain hotter-than-normal through early August, especially in Texas. That price increase came despite rising output, forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected and lower than usual amounts of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to ongoing maintenance outages. Power demand in Texas hit a record high on Monday and will likely break that on Tuesday as homes and businesses keep air conditioners cranked up to escape another brutal heatwave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.7 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $2.629 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since June 20 for a third day in a row. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least Aug. 2. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 108.6 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in July from 11.6 bcfd in June. That, however, remained well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. That puts global gas prices down about 65% so far this year after hitting record highs in 2022, due to mild winter temperatures and above-average storage inventories in the northern hemisphere. U.S. gas futures were down about 42% so far this year. In 2022, roughly 69%, or 7.2 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe as shippers diverted cargoes from Asia to get higher prices. In 2021, when prices in Asia were higher, just 35%, or about 3.3 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe. With the return of higher gas prices in Asia this year, analysts said they expect U.S. LNG exports to Asia will increase. But that has not happened yet. Just 19%, or 2.1 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Asia during the first half of 2023, while 70%, or 8.0 bcfd, went to Europe.

US natgas prices jump 6% on small storage build, hot weather forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a two-week high on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, a drop in daily output and forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected and hotter-than-normal weather through early August, especially in Texas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the hotter-than-normal week ended July 14. That was lower than the 48-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 35 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 45 bcf. Power demand in Texas hit a record high for a second day in a row on Tuesday and will likely break that record again on Thursday, and next week, as homes and businesses keep air conditioners cranked up to escape a lingering heat wave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator. Analysts at Gelber & Associates, an energy consultancy, said one other factor that likely boosted U.S. gas prices was Russian threats to Ukrainian ships and attacks on its Black Sea ports. One concession Russia has demanded to allow Ukraine to ship grain across the Black Sea again was the lifting of international sanctions that make it harder for Russia to export fertilizer. The U.S. has not sanctioned Russian fertilizer. Natural gas is the preferred feedstock to make fertilizer, so if rules are changed to make it easier for Russia to export more fertilizer, then demand for gas to make that fertilizer in Russia could increase, Gelber analysts said. In addition to the U.S. price gain, gas in Europe was up about 9% on Thursday. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 15.4 cents, or 5.9%, to settle at $2.757 per million British thermal units, their highest close since June 30. That was the biggest one-day percentage gain since mid-June. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.3 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary one-week low of 100.4 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to declines in Oklahoma and North Dakota. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 4. With warmer weather coming and LNG export plants expected to consume more gas, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 105.7 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in July from 11.6 bcfd in June. That was still well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities in Louisiana, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass and Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu.

U.S. natural gas up 6%, apparently on bet over Russia fertilizer demand - Storage fills for natural gas in the United States came in as expected for last week, and there was not much of a change either in weather forecasts. Yet, U.S. gas prices rallied some 6% Thursday in a development market watchers said could have more to do with the Russia-Ukraine situation.Most-active contract August gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub settled up 15.4 cents, or 5.9%, at $2.757 per mmBtu, or million metric British thermal units. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported earlier in the day that storage levels for natural gas rose by 41 billion cubic feet, or bcf, during the week ended July 14 — virtually in line with the 40-bcf injection forecast by industry analysts tracked by Investing.com.With all else, including the weather, being equal, the fallout from the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative after Russia’s pullout from the deal was cited as a possible catalyst for the rally in U.S. gas.Since withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports to flow to other countries, Russian leader Vladimir Putin had laid out his demands for the deal to be reinstated. At the top of the list was the lifting of international sanctions on Russian fertilizer deliveries.“If the demands are met, Russian gas supply will be drawn from as the country’s fertilizer,” said analysts at Houston-based energy markets advisory Gelber&Associates. If Putin gets his way, “a huge chunk of the fertilizer industry resumes manufacturing in full force”, and will be tapping Russian gas stockpiles too — a bullish development, said Gelber’s analysts who noted the rally on the Henry Hub coincided with the breaking of this news on Russian demands over the Black Sea front.

Investigation: Texas failed to crack down on gas after grid crisis - Since a deadly February 2021 freeze interrupted the flow of natural gas to power plants across Texas, state regulators have inspected gas facilities to see if they’re prepared for winter. But an E&E News analysis of state weatherization records found that few operators have been written up for violations beyond paperwork, raising questions about how thorough and effective Texas’ efforts have been. Data provided by the state Railroad Commission, which oversees Texas’ vast oil and gas network, shows that only 222 of more than 7,000 natural gas facilities designated as critical infrastructure last winter were cited for problems. Advertisement All but 10 of the citations went to operators that didn’t fill out weatherization forms by a December 2022 deadline. The others were for sites that failed to implement any weatherization practices. None of the violations obtained through an open records request included specific equipment issues, such as failing to insulate pipes or replace old valves, although details about most of the sites were included in inspectors’ comments. Weatherizing critical natural gas infrastructure has become a focal point of conversations about how to prevent power outages in severe weather events across the country. It gained urgency after more than 240 people died in Texas in 2021 because of Winter Storm Uri, which caused widespread energy problems and outages. Critics say if Texas is not being thorough with inspections, it could set the state up for another crisis. “It does make you wonder, was there anything actually implemented on these sites, or was it just really paperwork problems?” said Virginia Palacios, executive director at Commission Shift, a nonprofit advocacy group that aims to reform the Railroad Commission of Texas. In a response to E&E News questions about the inspection data, Railroad Commission spokesperson RJ DeSilva said many factors come into weatherizing natural gas facilities — and that the agency’s mission includes protecting Texans. “Rest assured — rule requirements and our inspections across Texas work to help ensure that gas flows for electricity and heating … as was the case during last winter’s storms,” DeSilva wrote in a statement. Two of the three commissioners who serve on the state’s Railroad Commission — Wayne Christian and Jim Wright — did not respond to requests for comment. The third, Chair Christi Craddick, declined to comment through a spokesperson. All three are Republicans. After Uri stuck, Texas lawmakers approved laws that required the Railroad Commission and the state Public Utility Commission, which oversees the state’s electric system, to make changes. Chief among them was S.B. 3, which passed in 2021. That measure mandated that the Railroad Commission help identify natural gas infrastructure that’s critical to natural gas-fueled power plants. It also required the Railroad Commission to adopt rules that include “measures a gas pipeline facility operator must implement” in order to be prepared for extreme weather conditions, if those facilities serve power generation needs. But parts of the Texas Administrative Code that dictate how critical natural gas infrastructure needs to be weatherized for winter storms are much less specific and prescriptive than other sections of the code.

Biden unveils aggressive rules for public land oil drilling - In a win for conservation groups, the Biden administration plans to increase the amount of money oil companies have to provide before they can drill on public lands twentyfold, the Interior Department indicated Thursday.The draft overhaul of Interior’s onshore oil and gas rules also weighs tightening the amount of time an oil and gas drilling permit can be used, while killing the long-standing practice in the federal oil patch of renewing unused permits.Bureau of Land Management Director Tracy Stone-Manning characterized the proposed reforms — due out officially next week — as “common sense and needed.”“This proposal to update BLM’s oil and gas program aims to ensure fairness to the taxpayer and balanced, responsible development as we continue to transition to a clean energy economy,” she said in a statement.Jacking up bonding requirements would represent one of the most ambitious steps taken by this administration to revamp drilling practices on federal lands and rein in fossil fuel development.Some environmentalists, as well as Biden administration officials, have stressed that new bonding requirements that ensure money is set aside when companies go bust are needed to ensure future oil wells are not abandoned on the taxpayers’ dime. The Biden administration, working with Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill in 2021, passed a $4.7 billion fund to clean up the up to 800,000 orphaned oil wells some estimate exist across the country.BLM’s proposed regulation overhaul, however, is sure to kick off a fight with the oil and gas interests that have said setting bonds too high will depress federal oil production. The oil industry that operates on federal lands has often been at odds with the Biden White House’s energy policies and its attempts to create a stricter environment for mineral extraction on federal lands.“It’s a false notion that the onshore oil and gas program is beset with so many deficiencies and problems that these overarching rules are needed,” said Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Western Energy Alliance.Sgamma said developers by and large clean up their own wells, and the Biden administration regulations are targeted to push oil drillers off federal lands.Under the draft rules, bonds for new oil and gas leases would go from today’s $10,000 to a minimum of $150,000. For so-called blanket bonds, which cover all drilling in a single state, the draft rule proposes an increase from the current $25,000 amount set in 1951 to $500,000. BLM is also proposing to eliminate blanket bonds that a driller can obtain nationally — a longtime ask from environmental groups critical of the federal oil program.

Oil and gas companies would pay more to drill on public lands under new Biden rule (AP) — Oil and gas companies would have to pay more to drill on public lands and satisfy stronger requirements to clean up old or abandoned wells under a new rule announced Thursday by the Biden administration.A rule proposed by the Interior Department raises royalty rates for oil drilling by more than one-third, to 16.67%, in accordance with the sweeping climate law approved by Congress last year. The previous rate of 12.5% paid by oil and gas companies for federal drilling rights had remained unchanged for a century. The federal rate was significantly lower than what many states and private landowners charge for drilling leases on state or private lands.The new rule does not go so far as to prohibit new oil and gas leasing on public lands, as many environmental groups have urged and as President Joe Biden promised during the 2020 campaign. But officials said the proposal would lead to a more responsible leasing process that provides a better return to U.S. taxpayers.The plan codifies provisions in the climate law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as the 2021 infrastructure law and recommendations from an Interior report on oil and gas leasing issued in November 2021.The new rule “provides a fair return to taxpayers, adequately accounts for environmental harms and discourages speculation by oil and gas companies,’' said Laura Daniel-Davis, principal deputy assistant Interior secretary for land and minerals management.Interior “is committed to creating a more transparent, inclusive and just approach to leasing and permitting that serves the public interest while protecting natural and cultural resources on our public lands,″ she added.The new royalty rate set by the climate law is expected to remain in place until August 2032, after which it can be increased. The higher rate would increase costs for oil and gas companies by an estimated $1.8 billion in that period, according to the Interior Department.The rule also would increase the minimum leasing bond paid by energy companies to $150,000, up from the previous $10,000 established in 1960. The higher bonding requirement is intended to ensure that companies meet their obligations to clean up drilling sites after they are done or cap wells that are abandoned.The previous level was far too low to force companies to act and did not cover potential costs to reclaim a well, officials said. As a result, taxpayers frequently end up covering cleanup costs for abandoned or depleted wells if an operator refuses to do so or declares bankruptcy. Hundreds of thousands of “orphaned” oil and gas wells and abandoned coal and hardrock mines pose serious safety hazards, while causing ongoing environmental damage.

North American RNG Production Forecast to Steadily Increase to 2050, Says Wood Mackenzie - North America could see an increase in renewable natural gas (RNG) production by 2050, as government incentives and new production capacities are added, according to a recent analysis by Wood Mackenize researchers “RNG has become more popular as it can have five times lower carbon intensity than natural gas projects and helps reduce emissions considerably when used for transportation fuel,” said Wood Mackenzie senior research analyst Natalia Patterson. In 2022, 60 MMcf/d of new RNG production was added, with the number of projects doubling in the last five years, the researchers noted.

Drought Impacting Panama Canal LNG Transit as Mexico Liquefaction Projects Advance - More U.S. LNG cargoes are taking longer and costlier routes to reach consumers in Asia as a drought impacting levels at the Panama Canal has increased wait times to transit the waterway. “The Panama Canal remains a primary route for U.S. LNG to access Asian markets, though an increased volume of trade is utilizing other routes, especially from the Cheniere-operated terminals,” said Kpler analyst Adam Bennett. Cheniere Energy Inc. is the leading U.S. LNG exporter. Bennett told NGI that there’s been a “pronounced drop” in the usage of the canal among vessels leaving the company’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals. Cheniere’s management has said it is shunning the waterway for now because it’s uneconomical to use it.

Enterprise Adds More Natural Gas Capacity in Permian with Ramp Up at 300 MMcf/d Plant - Enterprise Product Partners LP has begun service at its Poseidon cryogenic natural gas processing plant in Glasscock County in West Texas. The company’s sixth plant in the Midland sub-basin has a nameplate capacity of 300 MMcf/d and can extract more than 40,000 b/d of natural gas liquids (NGL). Enterprise now is able to process 1.3 Bcf/d of natural gas and extract 185,000 b/d of NGLs in the Midland, the Houston-based midstream company said. The plant is supported by long-term acreage dedication agreements.

Ring Energy Snaps Up More Permian CBP Acreage in West Texas - Ring Energy Inc. is expanding its Central Basin Platform (CBP) leasehold in the Permian Basin of West Texas through a $75 million deal with privately held Founders Oil & Gas IV LLC. The independent exploration and production (E&P) company, headquartered in The Woodlands north of Houston, is snatching up 3,600 net acres in Ector County, including about 50 drilling locations in the San Andres play. CEO Paul McKinney said the assets “strategically expand our existing operations in the southern portion of the CBP, allowing us to capture operating cost” and “synergies associated with a larger core operating area.”

U.S. OFS Job Gains Slow, as Energy Sector Competes for Employees -- U.S. oilfield services (OFS) employment in June continued to hit post-pandemic highs, but jobs edged up by only 45 last month, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data by the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Total OFS jobs inched up to 665,258 jobs in June, closer to the 706,528 jobs in February 2020 prior to the Covid-19 outbreak in the United States. Energy Workforce President Molly Determan told NGI that the small job gains were tied to the “tight labor market.” The OFS sector is “competing with many organizations to hire more employees.”

Rigs and Spreads July 21: Ugly — Princeton Policy Advisors

Rig counts
- Total oil rig counts declined, -3 to 534
- Horizontal oil rig counts fell, -4 to 483
- The Permian horizontal oil rig count was down, -3. The Permian has been losing rigs and a fair pace for the last two months.
The horizontal oil rig count fell at a pace of -3.25 / week on a 4 wma basis.
- This number has been negative for 32 of the last 33 weeks
Frac spreads rose, +11 to 274. This is not sustainable.
- DUC inventory has fallen below 15 weeks for the first time, 14.7 weeks today
- In order to hold DUC counts constant, horizontal rigs would have to rise by 68 or frac spreads would have to fall 34.
The EIA issued the July DPR this week. Highlights:

Crude and condensate production from key shale plays rose in June to 9.23 mbpd, up 36 kbpd from May
Permian production was up 11 kbpd in June. Permian production growth has averaged 12 kbpd / month over the last three months
The Permian is really slowing down; growth is being sustained by the Bakken, with support from the other secondary plays
Compared to last year, total shale oil production is up 0.7 mbpd; the Permian is up 0.5 mbpd

Production is being sustained in part by the cannibalization of the DUC inventory

USCG tries to contain diesel spill from sunken tug in Alabama - Coast Guard Sector Ohio Valley received notification at approximately 2 p.m. Sunday from RMB Marine Services reporting a sunken tugboat in the Port of Florence. Pollution responders from Coast Guard Marine Safety Detachment Nashville were deployed to assess the situation on scene. RMB Marine Services is working with E3 Solutions, an Oil Spill Removal Organization (OSRO) to clean up the discharged product. An estimated 200 feet of hard boom was deployed Sunday to contain the product in the water. Over 350 additional feet of boom was deployed Monday to act as a secondary barrier. The deployed hard boom is currently containing most of the fuel, which is being recovered via a vacuum truck and drum skimmer. There have been no reports of injuries or wildlife impact. The maximum potential for spill is 2,500 gallons of diesel fuel. The Coast Guard is investigating the cause of the incident.

California will cap hundreds of orphaned oil wells - California state regulators announced Tuesday their plans to cap orphaned oil wells across the state, including wells in a South Central Los Angeles residential neighborhood near USC that caused health complaints from residents for years. The effort is part of a new push to close problem sites that have posed health risks to communities across the state, oftentimes disadvantaged neighborhoods in close proximity to oil drill sites. Gov. Gavin Newsom earmarked $100 million in the state budget to address the issue. California has identified 5,300 wells that are orphaned, or likely orphaned, meaning they are deserted or do not have an operator who is financially viable or compliant, according to the California Geologic Energy Management Division. Improperly abandoned wells can leak methane and harmful chemicals into groundwater. State regulators will target more than 370 wells in their first phase of the new push, which will cost about $80 million, according to CalGEM. “This list includes leaking wells with serious compliance issues that have concerned communities for years,” David Shabazian, director of the state Department of Conservation, said in a news release. “It represents months of work to collaborate with local governments, identify environmentally sensitive wells and those that impact disadvantaged communities across California’s oil-producing regions.” Those sites include 37 wells with Citadel Exploration in Bakersfield; 22 wells with Sunray Petroleum near Arvin and Lamont in Kern County; and 21 wells in Los Angeles with AllenCo Energy. For years, neighbors living near the AllenCo drill site in South L.A. complained about noxious fumes that gave them nosebleeds, headaches and respiratory problems including asthma. When federal inspectors from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency became ill during a site visit in November 2013, AllenCo voluntarily shut down the facility.

North Dakota Poised for Production Bump with More Natural Gas Takeaway Needed, Officials Say - Well completion activity is on the rise in North Dakota, likely heralding a surge in oil and gas production and underscoring the need for more natural gas egress capacity, state regulators said Friday (July 14). Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) Director Lynn Helms and North Dakota Pipeline Authority Director Justin Kringstad held a press conference to discuss May production figures and the outlook for upstream activity in the state. The number of active hydraulic fracturing crews in the state stood at 26 as of Friday, a level not seen since before the pandemic, Helms said.

Alberta, BC Pursuing GHG Reduction Credits for Canadian LNG Exports --The Alberta and British Columbia (BC) governments have set out to gain formal, international greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction credits for exporting LNG as a replacement for coal and oil in other countries. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith last week told attendees of the International Gas Union’s LNG2023 conference in Vancouver that she has begun talks with her BC counterpart, David Eby, on the plan. Canada does not yet export liquefied natural gas in significant quantities. However, the Shell plc-led LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, BC, is on track to begin operations in 2025. In addition, more than a dozen similar projects have been proposed or are under development.

Another Milestone Reached at LNG Canada Project After Final Module Arrives by Ship - The 215th and final prefabricated piece has voyaged across the Pacific to the first Canadian liquefied natural gas export terminal, LNG Canada, under construction on the northern coast of British Columbia at Kitimat. Fluor Corp., the engineering firm contracted to assemble the C$18 billion ($13.5 billion) operation, reported that the arrival from a Zhuhai manufacturing site in China finished a “critical phase” at the site more than 800 miles north of Vancouver.Ship deliveries of the terminal pieces known as modules have been underway since March 2022, when the first arrival was a tower that stands 145-feet tall and weighs more than 500 tons.

Drought triggers new restrictions on B.C.'s oil and gas sector -- Northeastern B.C.’s elevation to Level-5 drought conditions tripped a new round of water restrictions on industry in the region by the B.C. Energy Regulator as residents struggle through their third straight year of severe dry conditions.B.C.’s natural gas sector has managed to hold its operations stable due to decade-long efforts to recycle water they use in hydraulic-fracturing operations, but the restrictions have hit at a moment when more drilling has been approved following a major agreement with First Nations, according to Fort St. John Chamber of Commerce CEO Kathleen Connolly. With an agreement with the Blueberry River First Nations on land management ironed out, “and permits are being approved, there’s more drilling that they’re looking to get completed,” Connolly said. “But the water is just a real barrier to them being able to get that work done.” On July 12, the B.C. Energy Regulator (BCER) suspended previously approved water withdrawals held by oil and gas firms on the Pine, Beaton and Kiskatinaw rivers within the Peace River watershed and the Fontas, Sikani Chief, Prophet and Kiwigana rivers within the Liard River watershed.

NGOs report oil spill in Gulf of Mexico -- Mexican NGOs on Tuesday reported an oil spill in an area of the Gulf of Mexico where an explosion this month killed two workers at a gas production platform of state company Pemex. Satellite images show that the spill began on July 4, three days before the blast, and by last week had spread over some 400 square kilometers (154 square miles). This was “more than twice the surface area of the city of Guadalajara,” the NGOs said in a statement. “The complete opacity with which this spill has been handled is worrying,” said the NGOs, which included including Greenpeace. Pemex, in a statement, acknowledged there was a leak but said “the volume of hydrocarbons that escaped was minimal.” It said the spill was reported to the government and Navy for repairs. “Most of the spilled volume was recovered immediately,” said the company, rejecting the scale of the spill as claimed by the NGOs. Debt-laden Pemex has suffered a string of accidents in recent years. In February, a dozen workers suffered burns in two fires that occurred at facilities in the southeastern state of Veracruz. In August 2021, a fire on a platform during maintenance work left several people dead. The previous month, a spectacular blaze and gas leak from an underwater pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico caused what was dubbed an “eye of fire” in the sea, though there were no victims. Other incidents included fires in 2015 and 2016 on offshore installations that each left several people dead.

Ecuador confirms oil spill of 1,200 barrels on northwest coast - Authorities in the South American nation of Ecuador have confirmed that an oil spill released about 1,200 barrels into the Pacific, contaminating kilometres of oceanfront. Rafael Armendariz, transportation manager for the state-owned oil firm Petroecuador, confirmed on Thursday that the incident took place a day earlier when a tank in the marine terminal in the port of Esmeraldas surpassed its capacity. “It is estimated that around 1,200 barrels were spilled,” Armendariz said at a press conference. “Not all of them fell onto the beach. A part was contained by the pool inside of Petroecuador’s facilities.” A view of an oil refinery, with a barrel branded with the Petroecuador logo. The spill occurred at state-run Petroecuador’s refinery in Esmeraldas, affecting nearby beaches [File: Daniel Tapia/Reuters] About half of the crude spilled out of Petroecuador’s facilities, spreading across about 4km (2.5 miles) of Las Palmas Beach, a popular destination for recreation and tourists. An investigation into the cause of the spill is taking place. General Manager Ramon Correa said problems like negligence, mechanical damage or sabotage could not yet be ruled out. Esmeraldas is about 150km (93 miles) south of Ecuador’s northern border with Colombia. The company says it has controlled 90 percent of the spill’s impact on land and 60 percent at sea through initial cleanup efforts. Environmental Minister Jose Davalos told the TV station Ecuavisa the spill could affect wildlife such as birds and crustaceans. He expected the cleanup to take about a week. Davalos noted that he is awaiting an assessment from Petroecuador before deciding on appropriate penalties.

EU Gas Matchmaking Hits Nearly 424Bcf in Potential Deals -- A European Union platform for collective gas purchases by member countries has matched up about 423.78 billion cubic feet (12 billion cubic meters) in potential deals with international suppliers. Under the EU Energy Platform, which is part of the REPowerEU strategy, the 27-member bloc can pool demand, negotiate with international partners and coordinate collective purchases. The platform is part of strategies to diversify supply away from Russia. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine February 2022, the EU declared March 11 that year the phaseout of fossil fuels from its traditional energy source by 2027 and on May 18, 2022 launched the REPowerEU outlining measures toward that goal. On May 16, 2023 the EU announced the first international tender under the joint gas buying platform had matched suppliers with customers for close to 385 Bcf (10.9 Bcm) in potential buys. The second round exceeded that by about 35 Bcf (1.0 Bcm), the European Commission said in a press release last week. The EU posted around 562.21 Bcf (15.92 Bcm) in demand in the latest round and 25 “reliable international suppliers” offered to supply approximately 536.43 Bcf (15.19 Bcm). The joint purchasing service, operated by Prisma European Capacity Platform GmbH, “has matched the most attractive offers with customer demands”, the commission said. “All participants have been informed about the matching results and will now be able to start contractual negotiations, in full confidentiality and outside of the AggregateEU mechanism”, it added, referring to the demand aggregation and purchasing service. AggregateEU welcomes producers from any country except Russia. On the other hand, besides EU companies, buyers may also be from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine. Prospective buyers under the second tender have scheduled deliveries between August 2023 and March 2025, according to European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic. “This was meant to cover the entire gas year and accommodate the purchasing patterns of some energy-intensive industries which buy gas over longer periods of time”, he said announcing the results in Brussels.

Traces of explosives found in yacht in Nord Stream sabotage investigation, diplomats say— Investigators found traces of undersea explosives in samples taken from a yacht that was searched as part of a probe into last year’s attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, European diplomats told the United Nations Security Council. The diplomats said the investigation has not yet established who sabotaged the pipelines, which were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany, or whether a state was involved. The attack, which happened as Europe attempted to wean itself off Russian energy sources following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, contributed to tensions that followed the start of the war. The source of the sabotage has been a major international mystery. Denmark, Sweden and Germany have been investigating the Sept. 26 attack, and the Danish Foreign Ministry tweeted a letter Tuesday from the three countries’ U.N. ambassadors to the president of the Security Council with information on their activities so far. Officials voiced caution in March over media reports that a pro-Ukraine group was involved in the sabotage. German media reported then that five men and a woman used a yacht hired by a Ukrainian-owned company in Poland to carry out the attack, and that the vessel set off from the German port of Rostock. German federal prosecutors declined to comment directly on that and other reports, but they confirmed that a boat was searched in January, and said there was suspicion that it could have been used to transport explosives to blow up the pipelines. A section of this week’s letter detailing Germany’s findings said that the yacht’s precise course had not been definitively established. The letter said “traces of subsea explosives were found in the samples taken from the boat during the investigation,” but it did not elaborate. “At this point it is not possible to reliably establish the identity of the perpetrators and their motives, particularly regarding the question of whether the incident was steered by a state or state actor,” it said. “All information to clarify the matter will be pursued during the continuing investigations.”

Japan’s LNG Buyers Increasingly Frustrated with Australia’s Energy Policy -- Australia could lose long-term LNG supply contracts with Japan under recent government policy changes over the past several months that appear to undermine the country’s natural gas industry. Under the Australian Domestic Gas SafeGuard Mechanism (ADSGM) passed earlier this year, the government is allowed to divert liquified natural gas feedstock to meet domestic demand, and effective July 1, requires new LNG facilities to be carbon-neutral. “Australia and Japan have worked together at the highest level to develop and support LNG, but now changing policies, new constraints and burdens are put in place,” Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics chief executive Tatsuya Terazawa told media this month in Tokyo.

UN hands over vessel to Houthis as oil transfer of decaying tanker set to start-Xinhua (Xinhua) -- The United Nations delivered a replacement vessel to Yemen's Houthi group on Monday as part of an urgent mission to avert a potential oil spill from the decaying Safer tanker off Yemen's western coast. The handover ceremony took place aboard the Nautica, the replacement tanker chartered by the UN in March that has arrived at the location of the Safer on Sunday. During the ceremony, which was attended by UN officials and representatives from the Houthi authorities, the tanker was officially renamed the Yemen, a Xinhua correspondent witnessed. A team employed by the UN will start the transfer of approximately 1.14 million barrels of crude oil from the Safer to the Yemen in the coming days. The Safer, originally constructed as a supertanker in 1976 and later converted to a floating storage and offloading facility (FSO) for oil, is currently moored approximately 4.8 nautical miles off the coast of Hodeidah Province in Yemen. Currently, the Safer is under the control of the Houthis. However, the internationally recognized government of Yemen also asserts ownership of the tanker and its crude oil. The disputes between the two sides have disrupted the regular maintenance of the tanker, resulting in its decay over the years. The UN has warned that a spill from the FSO Safer could have a devastating impact on the Red Sea and the coastline of Yemen. The spill could release four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster, which killed thousands of seabirds and marine mammals and caused widespread environmental damage. ■

‘Risk is high’: UN ship arrives in Yemen to prevent catastrophic oil spill from decaying tanker | South China Morning Post The Nautica entered Yemeni waters at midday and was expected to moor soon alongside the FSO Safer, a rusting supertanker in the Red Sea The operation to transfer 1.14 million barrels of Marib light crude to the Nautica, bought by the UN for the operation, is expected to begin at the end of the week.

United Nations poised to begin transfer of 1 million barrels of oil from decaying tanker in Red Sea - Yemen The UN-led project to prevent a massive oil spill from the decaying FSO Safer supertanker off Yemen’s Red Sea coast took a major step forward today when the replacement vessel Nautica sailed from Djibouti en route to the Safer site. All technical preparations and agreements have been finalized. The Safer, which holds an estimated 1 million barrels of oil, has been at risk of breaking up or exploding for years. A major spill from the vessel would result in an environmental and humanitarian catastrophe. Once the replacement vessel arrives, the oil aboard the Safer will be pumped out in a ship-to-ship transfer that is expected to take about two weeks to complete. The leading marine salvage company SMIT, a subsidiary of Boskalis, stabilized the Safer since arriving at the site on 30 May. The UN Development Programme (UNDP), which contracted SMIT, is implementing the operation to remove the oil. UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner said: “With the Nautica now en route, we expect the removal of oil from the Safer to begin in the next week. Removing the threat the Safer poses will be a huge achievement for the many people who have worked tirelessly on this complex and difficult project over months and years to bring us to this point. We will not rest until that threat is gone, and today we are close to beginning the operation.” Speaking from aboard the Nautica, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen, David Gressly, said: “The ship-to-ship transfer of the oil is an important milestone, but not the end of the operation. The next critical step is the installation of a CALM buoy to which the replacement vessel will be safely moored. I thank donors, private companies and the general public for providing the funds that have brought us so far.”

Global Oil Demand to Reach Record High in 2023: IEA | Rigzone -- Global oil demand will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day (MMbpd) to reach a record high of 102.1 MMbpd in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest oil market report (OMR). China will account for 70 percent of global gains on the back of increasing petrochemical use, the IEA said. However, “China’s widely anticipated reopening has so far failed to extend beyond travel and services, with its economic recovery losing steam after the bounce earlier in the year”, the agency said. The IEA projects growth to slow to 1.1 MMbpd in 2024. “World oil demand is coming under pressure from the challenging economic environment, not least because of the dramatic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced and developing countries over the past twelve months”, the IEA said. The IEA forecast global oil production to rise by 1.6 MMbpd to 101.5 MMbpd, as output from non-OPEC+ nations is expected to increase by 1.9 MMbpd. In 2024, the agency sees global oil supply rising by 1.2 MMbpd to a new record of 102.8 MMbpd, with non-OPEC+ nations accounting for all of the increase. Lower output from Saudi Arabia and core OPEC+ members, since production cuts were first implemented last November, has been offset by higher output from other producers, according to the report. Supply from the USA rose by 610,000 bpd with natural gas liquids jumping to all-time highs while biofuels increased seasonally. However, the IEA predicts that global supply could fall by more than 1.0 MMbpd this month as Saudi Arabia implements steeper cuts. Observed global oil inventories rose by 19.4 million barrels in May to the highest level since September 2021, as a surge in China led to a 44.2 million barrel build in nations not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). OECD industry stocks rose by 170,000 bpd in May, while China posted its largest monthly increase in crude stocks in a year at 1.1 MMbpd. China’s recent buying spree included heavily discounted Russian and Iranian barrels, the report said. In its April OMR, the IEA projected that world oil demand will climb by two million barrels per day in 2023 to “a record 101.9 million barrels per day”. Non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgent China, will account for 90 percent of growth, the April OMR noted. In May, the IEA had boosted forecasts for global oil demand as China reopened its economy following years of anti-Covid lockdowns. The agency raised global demand estimates by a hefty 500,000 barrels a day for the first quarter, and by just under half as much for the year as a whole. As a result, world consumption would climb by 2.0 million barrels a day this year to average 101.9 million a day, it had predicted. Meanwhile, according to a separate report by the IEA, fossil fuel supply investments are set to rise by more than six percent to around $950 billion for 2023, based on an analysis of the announced spending plans of large- and medium-sized oil, gas, and coal companies.

Oil Prices Dip As China’s Economic Growth Disappoints - Oil prices fell by around 1% in early Asian trade on Monday after major Libyan oilfields resumed production over the weekend following a brief shutdown and after China reported second-quarter economic growth below expectations. In the morning in Europe, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was trading down by 0.98% at $74.68 per barrel, while the international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded below the $80 per barrel mark it had reached last week for the first time since May. Brent was down by 0.96%, at $79.10. Underwhelming Chinese GDP data weighed on the oil market, again, after the world’s second-largest economy and top crude oil importer reported early on Monday6.3% GDP growth for the second quarter, missing expectations of 7.3% growth and slowing quarter-on-quarter. GDP in the second quarter rose by just 0.8% compared to the first quarter, after 2.2% quarterly growth in the first quarter.The economic growth miss from China added to the return to production of large Libyan oilfields to weigh on oil prices on Monday. Last Friday, Libya’s largest oilfield, Sharara, was fully halted amid protests on Friday as tensions in the restive African OPEC producer returned. The El Feel oilfield close to Sharara was also affected and was also stopped. Combined, the Sharara and El Feel oilfields in southwestern Libya pumped around 350,000 bpd of crude oil before the stoppage. The halting of production at the fields was the result of protests by the Al-Zawi tribe over the kidnapping of Faraj Bumatari, a former finance minister.Bumatari has been released, tribal leader Al-Senussi Al-ahlaiq told Reuters, which led to the resumption of production at Sharara and El Feel.Libya lost 340,000 barrels in production due to the closures, Oil Minister Mohamed Aoun told Dubai-based Asharq TV this weekend.The oil ministry warned that Libya would lose market share due to the on-and-off supply.“The loss of confidence in the continuity of Libyan oil supply to the global market will result in a loss of market share for Libyan oil and decreased demand for it,” the ministry said in a statement carried by Reuters.

Media Error Triggers Significant Oil Price Spike - If you've ever wondered if media headlines and jawboning really influence oil prices, you can now put the question to rest. A mistake in publishing sent oil prices up sharply on Monday morning—but prices have since bounced back to normal levels now that the offending media piece has been removed and a retraction printed.The Reuters headline wasn't exactly incorrect. "Saudi Arabia's Energy Department will voluntarily extend production cuts until the end of 2024." But we knew that. This is old news that dates back to June 4, when Saudi Arabia agreed to extend its additional voluntary oil cut until next year.But even just rehashing the old news today like it was some new event sent Brent and WTI up by 2%, with Brent reaching above the important $80 threshold. But that was then. Within the span of less than an hour, crude oil prices returned to earth, and are now trading at a loss for the day.At 9:48 a.m. ET, WTI was trading down 1.22% on the day, at $74.50. Brent crude had sagged 1.25% back to $78.87 after the market realized that Saudi Arabia wasn't doing anything extra today to prop up prices.Saudi Arabia has taken action to balance oil supplies with demand, to hear its energy ministry tell it—the result often ending with price hikes. But those moves have recently been quite temporary in nature, failing to keep prices higher.Not even two weeks ago, Saudi Aramco—the country's state-run oil giant—raised its crude oil prices to its prized market, Asia, for a second month in a row, while cutting production voluntarily by a million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's Light for August loading is now $3.20 per barrel above Oman/Dubai quotes.

Crude Slides on Profit Taking as China's Macros Disappoint --- Oil futures accelerated losses in the afternoon session Monday, sending the international benchmark below $79 bbl as market participants digested weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data out of China where an uneven post-pandemic recovery undermines the outlook for fuel consumption. Further pressuring the oil complex, Libya's energy ministry on Sunday said the shut-in production at the country's two largest oil fields -- Al Sharara and El Feel -- have been brought online following last week's disruption. Protests against the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli shut down at least two out of the nation's largest oilfields, taking offline around 500,000 bpd or 0.5% of global oil production. It remains unclear whether the brokered deal between protests and government forces will survive the tests of time. Libya has Africa's largest oil reserves, but its oil production has been frequently interrupted since the breakout of civil war over a decade ago. The oil market is sensitive to the news of unplanned supply disruption as global oil balances are seen falling into a deeper shortfall in the second half of the year. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia are rapidly reducing oil production as part of the OPEC+ deal to remove 3.6 million bpd from the global oil market. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that Moscow will cut oil exports by 2.1 million metric tons for the third quarter, roughly in line with cuts of 500,000 bpd. "Russia will cut both pipeline and seaborne oil exports in August," added Novak. On the macroeconomic data front, China reported on Sunday its gross domestic product expanded 6.3% during the second quarter on an annualized basis, outstripping growth in the first quarter but missing market expectations. Meanwhile, youth unemployment across urban areas spiked to a new record high 21.3% as business and consumer confidence takes a hit amid the faltering recovery. Youth employment is being closely watched by economists and the government as a record 12 million university graduates are expected to enter the Chinese job market this year. National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui noted on Monday that youth unemployment is likely to get worse before it gets better as China's economy faces multiple headwinds from geopolitical and macroeconomic fronts. Furthermore, China's retail sales for June rose by 3.1%, below the 3.5% expected. Meanwhile, industrial production for June rose by 4.4% from a year ago, better than the 2.7% forecast. The fresh data indicated continued uneven post-pandemic recovery, with faltering private confidence, record-high youth unemployment and overhanging risk in the property market. At settlement, front-month West Texas Intermediate on NYMEX fell $1.27 to $74.15 bbl, and ICE September Brent contract declined $1.37 to $78.50 bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures dropped back $0.0120 to $2.6317 gallon, and August ULSD futures fell to $2.5642 gallon, down $0.0337 on the session.

Oil steadies as investors eye US crude supplies - Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors weighed a possible tightening of U.S. crude supplies against weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth. Both benchmark contracts fell more than 1.5% on Monday following lacklustre economic data from China, the world’s largest oil importer, as well as the partial restart of some Libyan oilfields. Brent crude was up 7 cents at $78.57 a barrel by 1330 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 10 cents to $74.25 a barrel in relatively muted trading, with the contract set to expire on Thursday. The September WTI contract was also up 10 cents to $74.18. Market participants were awaiting industry data later on Tuesday that is expected to show U.S. crude oil stockpiles and product inventories fell last week. Meanwhile, U.S. shale oil production is projected in August to see its first monthly decline since December 2022, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Monday. Sluggish gross domestic product (GDP) data from China released on Monday “kept a cautious lid on prices with some reservations in its demand recovery,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. China’s GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, compared with average analyst forecasts of 7.3%. Still, global supplies are expected to see a boost from the resumption of output at two of three Libyan fields that were shuttered last week. Output was affected by a protest against the abduction of a former finance minister.

Oil Prices up on Expected Economic Support in China, Weaker US Output - (Reuters) -Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Tuesday after China said it will act to support economic growth in the world's biggest oil importer and on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates soon and a forecast decline in U.S. output. Brent futures rose $1.13, or 1.4%, to settle at $79.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.60, or 2.2%, to settle at $75.75. That cut Brent's premium over WTI to its lowest since late May. The smaller premium makes it less likely energy firms will spend money to send ships to the U.S. to pick up crude cargoes for export. In the U.S., several pieces of economic news over the past week or so, including a report Tuesday showing retail sales rose by less than expected in June, have boosted expectations the Fed will stop hiking rates after a widely expected 25 basis-point increase at its July 25-26 meeting. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. After posting sluggish gross domestic product data earlier in the week, China's top economic planner pledged it would roll out policies to "restore and expand" consumption without delay. Energy traders expect "the oil market will remain tight as Russian shipments drop and as China prepares to provide more support to households," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva, however, told financial leaders of the Group of 20 nations that medium-term growth prospects remain weak. On the supply side, U.S. shale oil production will likely decline in August for the first time since December, projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. Looking ahead, the oil market is waiting for U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, on Tuesday and the EIA on Wednesday. Analysts in a Reuters poll forecast a 2.4-million barrel draw from U.S. crude stocks during the week ended July 14. [EIA/S] [API/S] If correct, that would be the fourth crude stock decline in five weeks, and compares with a decrease of 0.4 million barrels in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 1.9 million barrels.

Oil rises to US$80 as Russian supply drop offsets economy risks - Oil rose to trade around US$80 a barrel in London as traders weighed signs of tightening in the global crude market against a shaky economic backdrop. Brent futures added 0.6 per cent in thin trading volumes on Wednesday. It rose the previous session as data showed that Russia's crude shipments fell to a six-month low in the four weeks to July 16. The curbs suggest that Moscow is fulfilling a pledge with its partners in the OPEC+ coalition to rein in supplies. Embedded Image Oil has been buffeted over the past couple of months as investors weigh China's stuttering recovery against supply cuts by OPEC+ heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, and indications that the Federal Reserve may be close to concluding a cycle of interest-rate hikes. Prices have made a decisive break higher since late June on signs that the market may finally be tightening, but are still lower for the year. “It looks like the price weakness is behind us, and traders seem to recognize that the market will tighten significantly from this month due to supply cuts and improving demand,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “But the prospect for recessions in the US and the eurozone combined with slower demand in China will provide headwinds.” Russia said it aims to reduce its third-quarter crude export plans by 2.1 million tons, in line with its previously stated pledge to cut overseas shipments by 500,000 barrels a day in August. There are also signs of tightening in the U.S., the world's biggest fuel consumer. The American Petroleum Institute said that U.S. oil inventories fell by 797,000 barrels last week, according to a person familiar with the data. The API is funded by the oil industry. Stockpiles at the storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, dropped by three million barrels last week. That would be the biggest decline since October 2021, if confirmed by the official Energy Information Administration due Wednesday. Prices: WTI for August delivery added 0.5 per cent to US$76.10 a barrel at 10:30 a.m. in London. Brent for September settlement rose 0.6 per cent to US$80.13 a barrel. Brent's prompt timespread was at 15 cents a barrel in backwardation, near the narrowest this month, in a sign that traders remain cautious.

WTI Tops $76 After API Data Showed US Inventories Fell -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange powered higher early Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a smaller-than-expected drawdown in U.S. commercial crude stockpiles but a sizable drop in refined fuel supplies during the week ended July 14. Further details of the API report released Tuesday revealed commercial oil stocks declined 797,000 barrels (bbl) last week, falling short of an expected 1.8-million-bbl drop. Currently, commercial inventories stand at 458.1 million bbl -- about 1% above the five-year average. The expectations for a larger drawdown were in part due to data released from the U.S. Energy Department showing no transfer occurred last week from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to the commercial side. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, tank farm -- delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures -- dropped by a sizable 3 million bbl. Gasoline stocks, meanwhile, fell by 2.8 million bbl through July 14, far above calls for a 1.1-million-bbl draw, while distillate inventory decreased 100,000 bbl compared with an expected 200,000 bbl increase. Next, oil traders are awaiting the official government report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, scheduled for 10:30 a.m. EDT release. Tuesday afternoon, West Texas Intermediate futures broke above the key resistance level of $75 bbl after Saudi Arabia reported its seaborne crude exports fell below 7 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time this year in May, showed the data published on Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) platform. Saudi oil production was also shown to have dropped by 502,000 bpd to 9.96 million bpd -- two months prior to the introduction of a voluntary 1-million-bpd production cut. There was an unconfirmed report that hit media airwaves on Tuesday, suggesting Riyadh plans to extend the unilateral production cut through the end of the year, potentially rallying WTI above $75 bbl. While the report was quickly withdrawn, oil extended gains ahead of the inventory report. Capping the upside for the oil complex is a strengthening U.S. dollar that extended gains into the third consecutive session on Wednesday, trading 0.31% higher against the basket of foreign currencies. The greenback's strength comes as investors have fully priced in a 25-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate at FOMC's next week meeting. Investors see a 99% chance that the central bank will raise the federal funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.5%, a nearly 22-year high, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Despite inflation easing and the labor market remaining largely intact, Fed officials repeatedly warned they are prepared to do more to ensure the economy will not reignite inflationary pressures. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, front-month West Texas Intermediate on NYMEX gained $0.26 to $76.01 bbl, and ICE September Brent contract advanced $0.49 to trade above $80 bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures traded little changed near $2.6934 gallon, and August ULSD futures moved up to $2.6321 gallon, up by $0.0327 in overnight trading.

Oil loses early gains as U.S. data point to underwhelming summer demand - Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after government data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by just a third of expected levels last week, even after the Biden administration halted weekly additions of oil from the national reserve to the market. Gasoline consumption underwhelmed as well for a mid-July week. New York-based West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude reversed gains seen before the data to settle down 40 cents, or 0.5%, at $75.35 per barrel. The U.S. crude benchmark hit an intraday high of $76.87 earlier. Just a day ago, WTI rallied more than 2% on upbeat expectations over last week’s U.S. oil and fuel consumption. London-based Brent also swung from a session high of $80.92 to settle down 17 cents, or 0.2%, at $79.46. Like WTI, Brent jumped 2% in the prior session as longs in the market bet heavily on strong demand numbers for U.S. oil and fuel last week. The U.S. crude inventory balance fell by just 708,000 barrels for the week ended July 14 — versus expectations for a 2.44 million barrel draw, the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported. In the prior week to July 7, crude stockpiles surged by almost 6.0M barrels, the most in a month. The crude draw reported by the EIA did not come with its usual caveat — the release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. For months now, weekly drawdowns from the reserve had been a point of contention for oil bulls, who said the additional oil had often suppressed crude prices from rallying. The Biden administration’s use of the SPR has, however, been a highly-charged matter for oil bulls and the president’s political opponents. Both sides accuse him of indiscriminately releasing hundreds of millions of barrels from the stockpile to subdue crude prices and shore up his political standing with American voters — when the reserve is meant for emergency use, in times of critically short oil supply. Biden, in his defense, has said he was only acting to reduce record high pump prices of fuel, which stood at above $5 per gallon last June and have fallen since to around $3.50. The administration also blames last year’s high crude oil prices for U.S. inflation getting to four-decade highs of above 9% in June 2020. In the past couple of months, the administration canceled SPR sales mandated through 2024 and moved to refill the reserve, which has fallen to 40-year lows. Earlier this month, the Department of Energy announced buying plans for about 6M barrels, on top of a previously-stated 12M, and invited U.S. energy companies to offer their selling prices. On the gasoline inventory front, the EIA reported a draw of 1.066M barrels for last week. Analysts had expected the agency to cite a decline of 1.577M barrels instead, after a near unchanged level for gasoline in the prior week. Automotive fuel gasoline is the No. 1 U.S. fuel product. Finished motor gasoline products delivered to the marketplace — an indication of demand at the pump — fell to 8.855M barrels from the prior week’s 8.756M. Typically, during summertime like this, some 9M barrels of gasoline or more are supplied to the market weekly. “To be fair, the overall volume of products supplied to the market was still relatively high at 20.8M barrels last week, versus the prior weekly tally of 18.7M and distillates seem to be the reason for that,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “But gasoline is really what the market watches most and summertime demand for that is weak, to say the least.” In the case of distillate stockpiles, the EIA reported a build of 14,000 barrels. Analysts had forecast a build of 460,000 barrels last week, against a previous surge of 4.815M. Distillates are refined into heating oil, diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships, and fuel for jets.

Oil Edges Up as Liquidity Thins to Six Month Low | Rigzone - Oil edged higher in a session marked by choppy trading and dwindling liquidity as a mixed fundamental picture dueled with negative sentiment from broader markets. The number of oil futures contracts trading hands dropped to the lowest since late January, in part due to the expiration of West Texas Intermediate’s August contract. On the fundamental front, the outlook remains varied as global supply has tightened while China attempts to revitalize its sagging economic growth. “Open interest has dropped precipitously this week, reflecting the low-conviction trading action and reinforcing the view that systematic traders continue to be in control of price action,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. China’s efforts to revive growth — including lower interest rates, easier access to credit and a series of measures to kick-start the moribund housing market — have done little to bolster the economy of the biggest crude importer. Another signal that Beijing was seeking to boost corporate confidence came this week in a joint pledge by the Communist Party and the government to improve conditions for private businesses. The recent revival in the US dollar, following a slump last week, added to the bearishness for oil, with commodities priced in the currency more expensive for most buyers. WTI for August delivery, which expires Thursday, rose 28 cents to settle at $75.63 a barrel in New York. The more active September contract settled at $75.65. Brent for September settlement gained 18 cents to settle at $79.64 a barrel.

The oil market on Thursday traded in and out of positive territory --The oil market on Thursday traded in and out of positive territory, ahead of its expiration at the close. The market traded mostly sideways and posted a high of $76.15 after Ukraine said it would consider any ship heading for Russian Black Sea ports as a potential target. On Wednesday, Russia issued a similar threat, saying it would consider any vessel heading to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to potentially be carrying military supplies. Warnings from both sides threatened to escalate a dispute over grain shipments and broaden the war to the strategic waterway. However, the crude market sold off over $1.40 from its highs to a low of $74.72 by mid-day. The market later retraced some of its losses and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the August WTI contract’s expiration at the close. The August WTI contract went off the board up 28 cents at $75.63, while the September WTI settled up 36 cents at $75.65 and the September Brent contract settled up 18 cents at $79.64. The product markets ended the session over 2 cents higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.26 cents at $2.6444 and the RB market settling up 2.27 cents at $2.7432. Two OPEC+ sources said the OPEC+ group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee panel will hold an online meeting on August 4th, a day later than previously scheduled. The U.S. Senate backed an amendment to an annual defense bill on Thursday that would prohibit exports to China of oil from the SPR. As voting continued, the tally was 68 to 13 in favor of the measure, beyond the 60 votes needed in the 100-member Senate to add the amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act. Wood Mackenzie said the current global annual investment of around $500 billion into upstream oil and gas would be sufficient to meet peak oil demand in the 2030s, contrary to widespread belief of under-investment in the sector. It stated that current expenditure could deliver the supply needed to meet demand peaks due to "the development of giant low-cost oil resources, relentless capital discipline and a transformational improvement in investment efficiency". It said it expected oil demand to peak at 108 million bpd in the early 2030s before beginning its long-term decline, with fuel efficiency, electric vehicles, and natural gas substitution taking over eventually. Kpler ship tracking data is currently showing the U.S. is importing 330,000 b/d of gasoline from Europe so far in July, down from the 450,000 b/d recorded in June. It appears European gasoline exports are being diverted to West Africa, as West Africa appears to be importing some 512,000 b/d from Europe in July versus the 377,000 b/d imported in June. The EPA reported that the U.S. generated 674 million biodiesel blending credits in June, down from 750 million credits in May. It also reported that the U.S. generated 1.28 billion ethanol blending credits in June, unchanged on the month.

Oil Prices Climb On China Stimulus Optimism -- Oil prices rose about 1 percent in European trade amidst fears of lower supplies from Russia and signs of declining inventories. Investors also assessed chances of further stimulus from China after rating agencies sent stark warnings about Wanda Commercial, China's biggest commercial real estate firm. Benchmark Brent crude futures were up a little over 1 percent at $80.45 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were up 1.1 percent at $76.50. Fresh data showing a decline in U.S. crude inventories and signs of declining supplies from Russia helped oil extend its recent rally. Russia may consider introducing quotas on the export of oil products in a bid to stabilize global gasoline prices, Reuters quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying today. Moscow aims to reduce its third-quarter crude export plans by 2.1 million tons, in line with its previously stated pledge to cut overseas shipments by 500,000 barrels a day. Meanwhile, amid concerns over rising interest rates and a worsening economic outlook, the Chinese government has pledged to make the private economy "bigger, better and stronger" with a series of policy measures. China's top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, has unveiled new measures aimed at supporting spending on automobiles and consumer electronics.

Oil Chases Equities Higher With OPEC+ Supplies in Focus -- Oil futures followed equity markets higher on Friday as investors re-assessed their outlook for tighter supplies available on the global market, shrugging off pressure from a rallying U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar extended gains into the fourth consecutive session on Friday, gaining 0.22% against global peers as investors looked to the Federal Reserve's meeting next week that is widely expected to deliver another 0.25% rate hike. The move would lift the federal funds rate to a 5.25%-5.5% range, the highest since 2001. With inflationary pressures easing, most investors expect no change to rates at the September meeting and just 27% forecast another hike by the November meeting. This week's economic data showed the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial unemployment claims falling to the lowest level in three months at 228,000 applications. Economists widely expected the labor market to show some signs of rising layoffs this summer amid a manufacturing recession and slowing consumer spending. For context, U.S. retail sales slowed more than expected in June, data from the Census Bureau showed this week, rising at just 0.2% pace and below the expected 0.5%. This might suggest that typical transmission lines between the labor market and strength of underlying demand might have been compromised during the pandemic months as employers are now more inclined to hoard labor. Near 8.30 AM ET, West Texas Intermediate September contract on NYMEX advanced $1 to $76.68 bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent for September delivery added $1.05 to $80.69 bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures advanced $0.0454 to $2.7886 gallon, and August ULSD futures strengthened to $2.7317 gallon, up $0.0673 so far on a session. The U.S. dollar index jumped 0.21% against the basket of foreign currencies to trade near 100.800 against the basket of foreign currencies. Friday's move higher in the oil complex follows EIA's inventory report, showing oil stored in Cushing, Oklahoma farm tanks -- delivery point for West Texas Intermediate contract -- plunged 2.9 million bbl during the week-ended July 14. This marked the steepest drawdown in Cushing stockpiles in nearly two years, adding to the evidence global inventories are gradually drawing as a result of OPEC+ extended production cuts announced on June 4. EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook global oil inventories will gradually transition from builds seen over the first half of the year to consistent draws until the fourth quarter 2024. "This transition puts upward pressure on global oil prices over the forecast period. Global oil inventories increased by an average of 0.6 million bpd in 1H23, and we forecast they will decrease by an average of 0.7 million b/d in 2H23. Inventories continue to fall by an average of 0.4 million b/d in the first three quarters of 2024 before increasing by 0.1 million b/d in 4Q24," said EIA in its July STEO.

Oil rallies higher for fourth straight week on tightening supply - Oil prices rose more than a dollar per barrel on Friday, buoyed by growing evidence of supply shortages in the coming months and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine that could further hit supplies. Brent crude futures rose $1.43, or 1.8%, to settle at $81.07 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.42, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.07 a barrel, the highest since April 25. "The oil market is starting to slowly price in a looming supply crunch as it is on track for its fourth week of price gains," "Global supplies are starting to tighten and that could accelerate dramatically in the coming weeks. Increased war risk could also impact prices," Russia hit Ukrainian food export facilities for a fourth day in a row on Friday and practiced seizing ships in the Black Sea, in an escalation of tensions in the region since Moscow's withdrawal this week from a U.N.-brokered safe sea corridor agreement. In the U.S., crude inventories have fallen, amid a jump in crude exports and higher refinery utilization, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Earlier on Monday, the EIA had forecast that U.S. oil and gas production was likely to decline in August for the first time this year, adding to concerns of supply tightness. Separately on Friday, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told Reuters that current actions by OPEC+ to support the oil market were sufficient for now and the group was "only a phone call away" if any further steps were needed. Meanwhile, investors welcomed stimulus measures designed to reinvigorate China's sluggish economy. Data from the world's second-biggest oil consumer suggests the government's 5% annual growth target will be missed. On Friday, Chinese authorities unveiled plans to help boost sales of automobiles and electronics. "We estimate the supply and demand balance for oil in the $75-$95 range for 2024, as limited OPEC+ supply and good demand in the U.S. is offset somewhat by weaker-than-expected demand in China as its economic recovery continues to lag,"

Russia amasses 100,000 troops as it seeks breakthrough in Kharkiv region, Kyiv warns – — Russia has gathered 100,000 troops and is attempting to break through Kyiv’s defenses in the Kharkiv region, according to the Ukrainian army. With Ukraine focusing its counteroffensive efforts on the southern front, Moscow’s forces have been probing Kyiv’s defenses in the east, in the direction of Kupiansk, Ukraine’s Army Command East spokesman Serhiy Cherevatyi said during a national telethon Monday. According to Cherevatyi, Russia has gathered some 100,000 troops, 900 tanks and 555 artillery systems in the area. “They are concentrating everything in order to break through our defense. Our soldiers are firmly on the defensive. They do not allow the enemy to seize the initiative,” Cherevatyi said. Kupiansk, a city in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, was a crucial logistics hub and supply route for Russia’s invading forces in the east, until Kyiv recaptured it during its counteroffensive last fall. Ukrainian Army Land Forces Commander General Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed Russia has concentrated its forces to attack in the Kupiansk direction, but thus far has been unable to break through. Syrsky commands Ukraine’s operations around the key battleground of Bakhmut, where Kyiv has managed to seize the initiative and retake high ground around the destroyed city after Russia occupied it earlier this year. Russia has also recently reinforced its positions around Bakhmut with additional forces, Syrsky said, and Moscow is seeking to break through in the Kharkiv region as President Vladimir Putin wants a big win. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar supported that view, saying: “As soon as we seize the operational initiative and begin to advance, the enemy immediately activates in additional directions to distract and draw our forces there.”

Ukraine Again Bombs Crimean Bridge -The Crimean Bridge that links Crimea to the Russian mainland was again targeted by Ukrainian forces in a bombing early Monday morning that killed two civilians and injured a child.Russian authorities said the Crimean Bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge, was targeted by drones operating on the surface of the water. The previous attack on the bridge that took place in October 2022 was a truck bombing.Ukrainian sources are telling media outlets that the attack was a joint operation between Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Ukraine’s Navy. The government in Kyiv hasn’t officially taken credit for the attack but has hinted at responsibility, which is typical of their covert attacks on Russian territory.Russian authorities initially halted vehicle traffic on the bridge to assess the damage. According to RT, the bridge partially reopened for vehicles early Tuesday, and rail transport has resumed.The Crimean Bridge is a sensitive target for Russia, and the last time it was attacked, Russian President Vladimir Putin significantly escalated the war. In response, the Russian military began large-scale missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, which it hadn’t done before October 2022.Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova hinted at Western involvement in the Monday attack, saying that Ukrainian decisions on such operations are made “with the direct participation of American and British intelligence services and politicians.”The Grayzone previously reported that British intelligence officials were plotting ways to blow up the Crimean Bridge before the October 2022 attack. The Grayzone obtained a presentation drawn up for British intelligence in April 2022 that reviewed options for attacking the bridge.

Russia Launches 'Retaliatory' Strikes After Crimean Bridge Attack - The Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday that Russian forces launched “retaliatory” strikes in southern Ukraine in response to the bombing of the Crimean Bridge by Ukrainian forces.Russia said the strikes were launched against targets in Odesa and Mykolaiv, and Ukrainian authorities reported airstrikes in those cities.“Last night, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a multiple retaliatory strike by seaborne high-precision weapons against the sites where terrorist attacks were being plotted against the Russian Federation with the use of drone boats and against the place of their production at a ship repair plant in the area of the port of Odesa,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said, according to TASS.Ukrainian officials reported damage to homes and port infrastructure in Odesa and said a major fire broke out in Mykolaiv. According to TASS, the Russian military claimed it destroyed 70,000 tons of fuel for Ukrainian military hardware. “All the targets designated for the strike were destroyed. Fires and detonation were registered at the destroyed sites,” Konashenkov said.The Russian strikes on the port city of Odesa also came a day after Moscow suspended its participation in the grain deal that facilitated exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Russia said it could no longer guarantee the security of shipments out of Ukraine and said it would only return to the initiative when more obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural goods are lifted.The bombing of the Crimean Bridge killed two civilians and injured a child. The bridge, which connects Crimea to the Russian mainland, is a sensitive target for Moscow. When it was first bombed in October 2022, the Russian military began large-scale missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Russia Pulls Out of Black Sea Grain Deal - was signed last year to facilitate the export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.Another aspect of the deal was that the UN agreed to help remove obstacles to the export of Russian food and fertilizer, and Russia has said enough hasn’t been done in that regard. The Kremlin said that Moscow would only rejoin the initiative if more of its demands are met.“When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.US and other Western sanctions technically have exemptions for Russian agricultural goods, but they make overall shipping from Russia more difficult. One of Russia’s demands is to reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT payment system.In a statement on Russia’s withdrawal from the deal, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres listed ways he helped facilitate more Russian shipments and pointed to a rise in Russian fertilizer and wheat exports, but he did acknowledge there are still obstacles.“I am aware of some obstacles that remained in the foreign trade of Russian food and fertilizer products,” Guterres said. “This is precisely why I sent a letter to President Putin with a new proposal to keep the Black Sea Initiative alive.”In the letter to Putin, Guterres said that since the deal was signed last year, “Russian grain trade has reached high export volumes and fertilizer markets are stabilizing with Russian exports nearing full recovery, as stated by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Russian Fertilizer Producers Association.”Russia said its suspension of the deal means that it can no longer guarantee the security of ships carrying grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the decision means “the recall of maritime navigation security guarantees, the discontinuation of the maritime humanitarian corridor [and] the reinstatement of the ‘temporarily dangerous area’ regime in the north-western Black Sea.”

Russia, Ukraine Harden Lines on Black Sea and Grain Shipments as Strikes on Ports Continue - -- Grain markets settled down Thursday following a 50-cent jump in futures prices for wheat on Wednesday as Russia and Ukraine each made it clear grain ships likely won't be getting grain from Ukrainian ports anytime soon. Russia continues to strike grain infrastructure around key ports in Ukraine such as Odesa and Mykolaiv. The White House now has warned that Russia appears to be adding more mines to areas around Ukrainian ports. "We believe that this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks," White House National Security spokesman Adam Hodge stated. Joe Glauber, a former USDA chief economist and now a senior research fellow for markets and trade at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said Russia's attacks will make it more difficult for Ukrainian farmers to financially pencil out production if they can't get grain out of the major ports. "It speaks to the fact that Ukraine is going to continue to be a diminished agricultural supply presumably for as long as this war is going on," Glauber said. Glauber agreed all of this is going to be borne by Ukraine's producers who will see their basis continue to widen because they cannot pass off those transportation costs. Glauber equated it to the U.S. having to export its soybeans through the St. Lawrence River. "You might be able to get some of it out, but you can't get the volumes that you normally would be exporting every year." DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman noted the port attacks provided some initial shock for grain traders as the market had become almost numb to war news before the port attacks. Now, with threats against ships, that is also going to force cargo ships to go elsewhere for commodities. "The Black Seas is definitely out of commission right now because no insurer is going to cover them," Hultman said. While the September futures price for wheat is up more than 90 cents from a week ago, that has been more of a response for speculators in the market than helping U.S. farmers with their own basis prices. The reaction to Ukraine has helped wheat producers in drought-stricken areas such as Kansas with delivery prices in the middle of harvest affected by drought in the state. The KCBT hard red winter contract has moved up from $8.01 a bushel on July 13 to just under $8.75 a bushel on Thursday. Red winter wheat prices at Kansas grain elevators on Thursday are offering bids of $8.25 a bushel to $8.70 depending on location and the company.

Wheat Prices Watch as War in Ukraine Takes Dangerous Turn - I am not proud to point out how on May 27, 2022, I pompously argued several reasons why Russia couldn't be trusted to abide by the Black Sea grain deal that was being rumored at the time. By May and June of this year, Russia's true colors started coming through as they dragged their feet on ship inspections and blocked access to the port of Pivdennyi. However, to my astonishing surprise, Russia did not attack grain ships leaving Ukraine for over 11 months. Russia attacked Ukraine's ports at times, but not the ships. According to BBC.com, nearly 33 million metric tons (mmt) of grain were shipped from Ukraine under the deal with Russia, which is 33 mmt more than I expected. According to the Ukraine Grain Association, corn accounted for 58% of the volume shipped, followed by wheat representing 30%. Combined with record crops from Russia and Australia, Ukraine's wheat supplies actually had significant impact on holding down world wheat prices. Ukraine's contribution was instrumental in keeping buyers comfortably supplied through a time when concerns about Russia's war on Ukraine ran high and still do. This week, Russia's thin facade of playing Mr. Nice Guy came to an end. Over the weekend, Russia announced it would not extend the grain deal beyond the July 17 deadline. On Monday, July 17, Ukrainian forces were believed to have attacked the Kerch Bridge, disrupting the tie between Russia and Crimea. Three days of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports followed with several media sources reporting damage to grain loading facilities at Odesa, damage to grain export infrastructure and 60,000 mt of stored grain at the port of Chornomorsk and attacks by drones and missiles on the port of Mykolaiv. On Wednesday, Russia warned that ships headed toward Ukraine would be considered hostile and, on Thursday, Ukraine issued the same warning for ships headed to Russia. It is safe to say, insurers will not be eager to offer coverage in this situation and shipments of grain out of Ukraine through the Black Sea have effectively been halted. As DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton explained in Thursday's "Ukraine's Grain Challenges Mount" (see https://www.dtnpf.com/…), the burdens of moving grain out of Ukraine are now going to fall on Ukrainian producers, stuck with the prospect of slower, more expensive transportation routes out the western side of the country. Politically speaking, the West is unlikely to take measures that interfere with Russia's exports of wheat or other foods, but Russia may find private entities less willing or at least more expensive to do business with. If so, Europe stands to benefit from greater demand for wheat, but the U.S. remains low on the totem pole of trade choices. Of the three U.S. wheats, Minneapolis wheat currently has the best chance of trading higher. The September contract closed at $9.02 Thursday, July 20, the first close above $9.00 in 2023, if even by a small margin. Sporting a good-to-excellent rating of only 51% as of July 16, spring wheat is also facing prospects of more dry weather and higher temperatures on both sides of the U.S.-Canadian border in the week ahead. Thursday's report from the International Grains Council showed an expectation 2023-24 wheat inventories at the world's major exporters will fall to their lowest level in 16 years. As last year's May 27 Todd's Take proved, I have no special talent for predicting future events, especially regarding Russia's next moves, but there is value in paying attention to the market's own clues. After an erratic week of escalated attacks on Ukraine's ports, I'll be watching not only spring wheat's bullish potential, but how all the wheat prices respond to this week's latest turn of events. We may be witnessing another major turning point in wheat price history.

Putin tightens grip on Africa after killing Black Sea grain deal – African leaders have long been reluctant to criticize Russia and now that President Vladimir Putin has killed off a deal to allow Ukraine to export grain, they know they are more dependent than ever on Moscow’s largesse to feed millions of people at risk of going hungry.Having canceled the pact on Monday, Moscow unleashed four nights of attacks on the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk — two vital export facilities — damaging the infrastructure of global and Ukrainian traders and destroying 60,000 tons of grain. In the latest assault, on Thursday night, a barrage of Kalibr missiles hit the granaries of an agricultural enterprise in Odesa.“The decision by Russia to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a stab [in] the back,” tweetedAbraham Korir Sing'Oei, a senior foreign ministry official from Kenya, one of the African countries that has received donations of Russian fertilizer in recent months.The resulting rise in global food prices “disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought,” he added.Sing'Oei's was a solitary voice, however. Rather than reproaching Moscow, African leaders have remained largely silent as they prepare to attend a summit hosted by Putin in St Petersburg next week. This follows an African mission led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa last month to Kyiv and St Petersburg in a bid to broker peace.The diplomatic stakes could hardly be higher. Putin had been due to make a return visit to Africa next month to attend a summit of the BRICS emerging economies in Johannesburg. That trip has been called off, however, “by mutual agreement” to avoid exposing the Kremlin chief to the risk of arrest under an indictment for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.Without the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered a year ago by the United Nations and Turkey that enabled Ukraine to export 33 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds, many African governments now have nowhere else to turn to but Russia.

Women burn down house of accused from India naked women video -- A group of furious women set on fire the house of an Indian man accused of parading two women naked in a northeastern state where months of ethnic violence have left at least 120 dead, footage showed Friday. A clip went viral Wednesday showing two women said to be from the Kuki tribal group walking naked along a street, being jeered at and harassed by a mob reportedly from the Meitei community. Violence erupted between the mainly Christian Kuki and the predominantly Hindu Meitei in May over job quotas and land rights, and intermittent clashes have continued since. The emergence of the women's humiliation -- which happened in May -- triggered outrage across the country, with prime minister Narendra Modi saying it had "shamed India". Police arrested four suspects Thursday, and the same day a group of women activists threw stacks of hay into the house of one of the men in Imphal and set it on fire. As the fire raged, the women -- members of the Meitei community, like the accused -- broke down the walls and roof of the house with sticks. India is generally traditionalist, conservative and patriarchal, but the Meitei have a history of women's activism, with women having a more prominent role in society than elsewhere. The video of the naked women sparked protests across India on Friday with demonstrators calling for the state's chief minister to step down over the delay in taking action. "Can normal people do these things?... Even cats, dogs, animal(s) never committed these kind of filthy act," said one demonstrator near Imphal, where hundreds of women gathered to protest. "This is not even how human beings treat other human," she said. India's Supreme Court warned Modi's government Thursday that if it does not act, "we will".

China slowdown worsens - The latest data from China show the slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, reflected in significant deflationary trends, is not abating. Moreover, it is in danger of missing the already low official target of 5.5 percent growth this year. According to official figures released on Monday, the economy grew by 6.3 percent in the second quarter compared to a year ago. However, that figure was below expectations and conceals, rather than reveals, the actual situation because a year ago Shanghai and other cities were in a COVID lockdown. A more accurate assessment is provided by the quarterly data. These show that growth was only 0.8 percent in the second quarter compared to 3.2 percent in the first three months of the year. The downward pressures go across the board: weakening spending after the initial boost following the lifting of anti-COVID measures; deflationary pressures throughout the economy; continuing problems in the housing and real estate markets; and falling export revenues. Retail sales rose by only 3.1 percent in June compared to a year earlier, down from 12.7 percent increase for May. Louis Kuijs, chief Asia Pacific economist with S&P Global Ratings told Bloomberg: “What we all expected was a consumption and service-led recovery. If that is sputtering, then there’s no engine left for the recovery.” The extent of deflation was highlighted by a report in the Economist magazine. It noted that China’s “nominal” growth, that is growth before adjusting for inflation, was weaker than the inflation adjusted figure. Generally, it is the other way around. “It suggests that the price of Chinese goods and services is falling. Indeed, it implies they fell by 1.4 percent in the year to the second quarter, which would be the sharpest drop since the global financial crisis.” Consumer prices did not rise at all in the year to June and producer prices, those charged by factories, fell by 5.4 percent. The Chinese economy is also being hit on the international front. The rise in interest rates by the major central banks is bringing a slowdown in demand for its exports. In June they fell by 12.4 percent in dollar terms, the largest year-on-year decline since the start of the pandemic. The situation is not likely to improve as the global economy weakens with the International Monetary Fund forecasting world economic growth of only 2.8 percent this year, amid predictions that it could be even lower.

Hundreds of refugees missing near the Canary Islands - Three boats with a total of more than 300 refugees are missing in the Atlantic Ocean off the Canary Islands. A search has so far been unsuccessful. As a result of this new horror, the official number of refugees who have drowned in the Mediterranean and Atlantic while attempting to reach European Union (EU) countries this year has risen to more than 2,000, and the actual death toll is undoubtedly much higher. The responsibility for this mass death lies entirely with the EU leaders: in their refugee deterrence, they have no compunction about allowing people to drown to prevent others from fleeing to Europe. Dozens if not hundreds of refugees who set out on the dangerous sea passage but don’t reach their destination are added to the registry of the dead each week. A spokesman for the Spanish refugee aid organization Caminando Fronteras (Walking Borders) reported that two boats, each carrying around 60 refugees, left Senegal on June 23. Following that, an even larger boat with 200 refugees on board, including many children, ventured on the more than 1,700 kilometer-long route to the Canary Islands from the Senegalese coastal village of Kafountine on June 27. Caminando Fronteras fears “another catastrophe.” Family members of the refugees informed the aid organization after contact with the boats was lost. A search initiated by the Spanish Maritime Rescue has so far been unsuccessful. The rescuers found a boat with 78 refugees on board last Monday, but according to Caminando Fronteras, it is not one of the three missing boats. Reports that the 200 refugees were found on Monday also turned out to be false. According to the Senegalese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the 260 refugees rescued from distress in Moroccan waters between June 28 and July 9 are also passengers from other boats, not the missing ones. The search for the refugees sheds light on one of the deadliest sea routes in the world. The EU’s brutal closed-border policy forces refugees to choose longer and more dangerous routes to escape war and misery. The Canary Islands, a Spanish autonomous community and archipelago, are only 100 nautical miles from the Moroccan coast. However, many refugee boats depart further south from Senegal, Gambia or Guinea. The crossings take between one and ten days depending on the length of the route. An EU report on the West African route asserts: “Usually, after only a few days, migrants face significant problems such as food, water and fuel shortages.” Nevertheless, the EU has drastically reduced sea rescue efforts in this region, as well as in the central Mediterranean.

Netherlands: Rutte’s resignation further emboldens the far-right - On July 7, Mark Rutte, prime minister of the Netherlands since 2010, resigned. Three days later, he announced that he would not lead his People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the upcoming elections in November. Until then he will head a caretaker government. Rutte is, after Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, the longest serving prime minister in the European Union. His ability to cobble together various coalitions in a parliament divided into more than ten parties gave him the nickname “Teflon-Mark”. In 2010, Rutte’s first minority government relied on the parliamentary support of Geert Wilders’ neo-fascist Party For Freedom (PVV), which until then had been considered taboo. In 2012 he formed a coalition government with the Labor Party (PvdA). In 2016 he brought together a shaky four-party coalition with the Christian Democrats (CDA), the liberals (D66) and the Calvinists of the Christian Union (CU). Rutte’s third government collapsed shortly before the 2021 election, because it had falsely accused thousands of families of social fraud and forced them to make repayments. As a result, 26,000 families were facing bankruptcy. After ten months of negotiations behind the scenes, the same coalition was reestablished. It only lasted eighteen months. While Rutte’s coalition partners changed, his political agenda was moving steadily further to the right. His thirteen years in office were marked by pro-business policies, severe austerity, militarism and abetting the far-right. Faced with a looming vote of no confidence in his deeply unpopular government, Rutte provoked its demise in a way that will put refugee policy at the center of the campaign and again benefit the far-right in the upcoming election. He insisted on a two-year waiting period before children of “recognised refugees” living in the Netherlands could join their parents, knowing full well that his Christian coalition partners would not accept this. At a press conference on Friday night, Rutte said, “It’s no secret that the coalition parties think very differently about asylum policy and today we unfortunately need to draw the conclusion that the differences are unbridgeable. The fall of a government is never good. But it is sometimes impossible in a coalition country like the Netherlands to come to one agreement.” The far-right has systematically scapegoated migrant workers and asylum seekers, accusing them of responsibility for all social evils, especially the acute housing crisis. While the Netherlands received only 46,000 asylum applications last year, the longstanding and accumulated housing shortage is the result of decades of relentless cuts to social housing. Currently, the nationwide shortage of homes is at least 390,000 with predictions for a shortage of nearly a million by the year 2030. Rutte was only able to stay in office for 13 years and to weather various scandals because all parties, from the so-called “left” to the far right, support his reactionary agenda. Faced with a deep social and political crisis the entire Dutch political establishment is maneuvering to divert social discontent from questions such as the rising cost of living, deteriorating working conditions and the war in Ukraine, into anti-immigrant hatred and support for a draconian asylum policy.

FCA plans social media crackdown, Swift completes real-time payments test - The Financial Conduct Authority is developing new rules that tighten how financial firms can use social media, Swift and a group of banks have successfully piloted instant payments between different countries and currencies, and more. Here's what's happening around the world.

U.K. bank regulator plans crackdown on social media marketing. The Financial Conduct Authority is developing new rules that tighten how financial firms can use social media, particularly in terms of how messages are used to sell products. The regulator is concerned that existing guidance is not adequate to prevent risk to consumers. It is taking aim at "finfluencers" that tout investment products and cryptocurrencies on social media. Effective October 8, the FCA will bar incentives tied to crypto investments, including referral bonuses, and will enforce a 24-hour waiting period between the viewing of a social media message and an initial investment for first-time buyers. The FCA has additionally entered a partnership with the U.K.'s advertising regulator to educate consumers on investment risks and the rules investment companies must follow.
Swift finishes international real-time payment test. Swift and a group of banks have successfully piloted instant payments between different countries and currencies. The banks include BBVA, Caixa and Santander in Spain, National Australia Bank, Lloyds and Itau Unibanco in Brazil. The project integrated Spain's instant processing network withSwift's GPI, which creates a central source to initiate and track digital payments. The test comes as real-time settlement projects accelerate globally, creating a necessity to fast-track projects thatenable interoperability for real-time payments in different currencies.
Standard Chartered, tech accelerator recruit UAE women entrepreneurs. Standard Chartered and the DIFC Innovation hub have launched a new installment of Women in Tech, an accelerator program in the United Arab Emirates that aims to increase participation from women in the UAE's technology sector. The program is taking applications through the end of July, and will then pick 10 startups to participate in a program that includes training, mentorships and access to development space. Three winners will be chosen in October following a Demo Day, and will receive $100,000 in seed funding. In four previous Women in Tech Programs, Standard Chartered chose more than 20 startups, which have collectively raised more than $5 million. Part of the funding is meant for the startups to use to expand outside of the UAE.
Mastercard plugs into UAE travel. Mastercard has partnered with Nirvana Travel and Tourism, a United Arab Emirates-based company, to extend the card network's reach in the region. Travelers who book in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan can use Nirvana's platform, which will be integrated with Mastercard, to schedule and pay for flights, hotels and travel-adjacent services. There will also be an expense management feature for corporate clients. Nirvana has more than 70 locations globally and provides travel services for most UAE government agencies, counting Emirates and Etihad airlines among its clients. Travel volume has surpassed pre-pandemic levels in most of the world, drawing attention from financial institutions as a way to extend payment relationships. —John Adams
Flywire, WeChat partner for tuition payments. Payment fintech Flywire and WeChat Pay are collaborating on education payments as China reopens following the pandemic. By adding Flywire, WeChat Pay could help Chinese students avoid the complex process required when making tuition payments at universities outside of China. The Flywire integration will also enable Chinese students to pay tuition and other education expenses in their own currency. Flywire cited internal research that found 66% of Chinese students are motivated to study outside of China, as well as a CNBC report stating outbound travel from China has reached 66% of 2019 levels, which is behind most other countries but still far higher than the past three years. "This partnership ensures that for Chinese students studying internationally at institutions that use Flywire, we essentially become their 'pay' button by offering localized and seamless payment capabilities, which benefit students, families and institutions alike," said Mohit Kansal, senior vice president of global payments and payer services at Flywire, in a release. —John Adams
Tourists visiting France from India may soon pay in rupees via UPI. Tourists from India visiting France will soon be able to make payments at French tourism sites in their local currency using India's QR code-based mobile payment approach, Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Skift reports. Through a collaboration between India and France, India's UPI-based digital payments will go live in France before the end of this year at certain tourist attractions including the Eiffel Tower. India already has similar agreements in place with the UAE, Bhutan and Nepal, where local merchants support UPI. —Kate Fitzgerald
National Australia Bank plans to block ‘high risk’ crypto transactions. Melbourne, Australia-based National Australia Bank said it is restricting payments to cryptocurrency exchanges it deems "high risk" following a surge of crypto-related scams that began in March, according to a press release. NAB, one of Australia's four largest banks, didn't list specific crypto exchanges involved in any scams. The bank said it has intervened in transactions that amounted to about $180 million (U.S.) worth of customer payments that raised red flags about possible scams in the last five months. New controls the bank said it's introduced to block scams include blocking the use of links in texts from unfamiliar senders, among other actions.

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