Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops $667 Billion fr. Peak to $8.3 Trillion, Below Aug 2021, as QT Continues, Bank Panic Support Unwinds By Wolf Richter -The Fed’s total assets dropped by $87 billion in June, and by $667 billion since the historic peak in April 2022, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today.In the 15 weeks since the height of the bank panic in March, the Fed has shed $435 billion in assets, the fastest-ever 15-week drop, as Quantitative Tightening (QT) continued on track and bank liquidity support measures continued to unwind.At $8.298 trillion, the balance sheet is now at the lowest level since August 2021. This chart shows the details of the banking crisis, and how it is being unwound:From crisis to crisis to raging inflation. Note QT #1 in 2018-2019, which removed $688 billion from the balance sheet. By the end of this month, 12 months into QT #2, the Fed will have unwound more of its assets than in the entire period of QT #1, despite the bank-panic bailout that at the peak had added $391 billion to the balance sheet. Repos with “foreign official” counterparties: $0. It was paid off in April. The Swiss National Bank likely leaned on this program to fund the dollar-liquidity support for the take-under of Credit Suisse by UBS.Discount Window: $3 billion, down from $153 billion in March. Since the last rate hike, the Fed charges banks 5.25% to borrow at the Discount Window ( “Primary Credit”). In addition, banks have to post collateral at “fair market value.” This is expensive money for banks that should normally be able to borrow for less from depositors without having to post collateral. So they pay it off as soon as they can.Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): $102 billion, declined by $1 billion in the week, first decline since May. Banks can borrow for up to one year, at a fixed rate, pegged to the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points. Banks have to post collateral, but valued “at par.” Still expensive money, but less expensive than at the Discount Window. It seems banks paid off the Discount Window loans with proceeds from BTFP loans.Both facilities combined: $105 billion, down from $165 billion in mid-March. The chart shows loans at the Discount Window in red, and the loans at the BTFP in green:Loans to FDIC: $188 billion, down by $4 billion in the week, and by $23 billion in June. That spike in the week through May 3 was caused when JP Morgan acquired the assets of First Republic from the FDIC for $182 billion, and borrowed $50 billion from the FDIC to help fund the purchase. The FDIC then borrowed from the Fed (we walked through the details here).The FDIC is now methodically selling the loans and securities it took over from the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. As the FDIC returns those funds to the Fed, the loan balance declines.Treasury notes and bonds: $5.11 trillion. Down $58 billion in June, down $665 billion from the peak in June 2022.The Fed has now shed 20.5% of the Treasury securities it bought under the pandemic QE ($3.25 trillion).Treasury notes and bonds “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month or at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value for them. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much usually rolls off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) which is added to the principal of the TIPS.MBS: $2.54 trillion, down by $20 billion in June, down by $202 billion from peak. The Fed only holds government-backed “Agency MBS,” where taxpayers carry the credit risk, not the Fed.Mortgage-backed securities come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when regular mortgage payments are made.The reduction in MBS has been well below the cap of $35 billion per month because passthrough principal payments to the Fed have been slow, as fewer mortgages are getting paid off because home sales have dropped and refis have plunged:
Federal Reserve poised to start raising interest rates again - The Federal Reserve appears likely to raise its key interest rate next week, with minutes from the central bank's most recent meeting showing some officials wanted to raise rates last month. While the Fed's rate-setting body ultimately skipped hiking rates in June, minutes of the last meeting show that some officials pushed to raise rates by one-quarter of their percentage points, or said they "could have supported such a proposal," according to the minutes. In the end, the 11 voting members of the Fed's interest-rate setting committee agreed unanimously to pause on hiking rates at the June 13-14 meeting. But they signaled that they might raise rates twice more this year, beginning as soon as this month. In Fed parlance, "some" is less than "most" or "many," evidence that the support for another rate hike was a minority view. And some who held that view were likely unable to vote at the meeting; the 18 members of the Fed's policymaking committee vote on a rotating basis. Though last month's vote to keep rates unchanged was unanimous, it is relatively uncommon for the central bank to stipulate in the minutes of Fed meetings that some officials had disagreed with the committee's decision. That makes it more likely the committee will raise rates this month, noted Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "The hawkish wing of the Fed is making the most noise, suggesting that the Fed isn't done tightening monetary policy, particularly as concerns about stress in the banking system has eased," he said in a note. "June employment and consumer price index will need to significantly surprise to the downside for the Fed not to hike rates in July," Sweet added. Twelve of the 18 members of the rate-setting committee projected at least two more rate hikes this year, according to the members' projections released last month. Four envisioned one more increase. Just two officials foresaw keeping rates unchanged. The Fed's key interest rate stands rate at about 5.1%, the highest level in 16 years. But inflation remains high, and the economy is proving more resilient than Fed officials have expected. Policymakers who wanted to raise rates last month cited this economic strength, noting that "the labor market remained very tight, momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated, and there were few clear signs that inflation was on a path to return to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time." The Fed's aggressive streak of rate hikes have made mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing increasingly expensive. Many economists described the message from last month's Fed meeting as a blurry one. On the one hand, the central bank chose not to raise borrowing costs. And Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that the Fed was slowing its rate hikes to allow time to assess their impact on the economy. On the other hand, the officials' forecast for two more rate hikes suggested that they still believe more aggressive action is needed to defeat high inflation.
These Charts Show Why the Fed Is Terrified to Stop Raising Interest Rates and Why Nasdaq Is Ripping Higher - By Pam and Russ Martens - The top chart above shows one of the most erratic eras in Federal Reserve policy-making history. In the 70s and early 80s, the Fed would slam on the brakes to bring down inflation by raising its benchmark rate (known as the Fed Funds rate), then slam its foot on the gas to revive the economy by cutting the Fed Funds rate. But because the Fed stopped raising rates too soon each time, it had to then raise rates to an ever staggering level to curb runaway inflation, eventually reaching over 20 percent in 1981.Today, the Fed is woefully mindful of these mistakes. It is hoping to signal that it is planning higher interest rates for longer and follow through on that signal without killing the economy, and the markets, and the banks, and consumer confidence in the process.The Fed has one giant albatross around its neck that it didn’t have in the 70s. The Individual Retirement Account (IRA) and 401(k) were created in the 70s. As of March 31 of this year, IRAs held $12.5 trillion in assets, according to the Investment Company Institute, while 401(k)s and similar forms of defined contribution plans held $9.8 trillion. When Americans see their retirement plans shrinking on their monthly or quarterly statements because the stock market is slumping because of Fed rate hikes, that can have a negative impact on consumer spending.The Fed is very much aware that consumer spending represents more than two-thirds of GDP in the United States. (As of March 2023, consumer spending represented 68.37 percent of GDP.)So, despite all of that talk from the Fed about its twin policy mandates of maximum employment and stable prices, it knows that if it kills the stock market it’s going to kill consumer confidence, which will, in turn, negatively impact GDP growth. With that in mind, read our article on how, for the first time in its history, the New York Fed added a second trading desk in Chicago, not far from the S&P 500 futures market.Which brings us to another curiosity – the inexplicable rise in the Nasdaq versus the lackluster performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the warp speed Fed interest rate hikes in the 70s and early 80s and today. Year-to-date, through the close on Monday, July 3, Nasdaq had soared 32 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up a meager 3.8 percent.As the second and third charts above show, this same curiosity occurred from January 1977 through December 31, 1980.There is no sound rationale for this divergence in stock markets. There is only a four-letter word that explains the Nasdaq’s behavior in both eras: hype. Today’s surge in Nasdaq is being fueled by a handful of tech names, being hyped by the alleged wonders of Artificial Intelligence. In the prior era, it was an assortment of hype, including the potential for takeovers.
Expect more rate hikes from the Fed after the latest jobs report — An interest rate hike later this month was already in the cards for the Federal Reserve. But after the June jobs report, the timing of a second hike remains unclear.Job gains remain robust, wage growth is still going strong, and unemployment continues to hover near historic lows. That means the job market is still fueling demand in the economy, which the Fed has been trying to slow through rate hikes. And Fed officials have made it clear they think the central bank still has more work to do to bring down inflation, which is still running well above the 2% goal.Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, a voting member of the Fed committee that decides interest rates, said in an interview Friday that he sees “a decent chance of further tightening down the pipeline” and that inflation “needs to come down more.”Other Fed officials have struck a similarly hawkish tone on inflation, hinting strongly at a hike in July.“I remain very concerned about whether inflation will return to target in a sustainable and timely way,” said Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan on Thursday during a meeting hosted by the Central Bank Research Association. “I think more restrictive monetary policy will be needed to achieve the Federal Open Market Committee’s goals of stable prices and maximum employment.” Fed officials voted last month to hold the key federal funds rate steady at a range of 5-5.25% to reassess the economy after a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes and to monitor the effects of bank stresses in the spring, according to minutes from that meeting released Wednesday.
Fed's Goolsbee sees 'golden path' to lower inflation without a recession - Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he's confident inflation can be tamed without a recession, even with additional interest rate increases likely.Speaking to CNBC following the release of the June nonfarm payrolls report, he said the ongoing job growth is part of the Fed's "golden path" toward restoring price stability without taking the economy."What the Fed's overriding goal right now is to get inflation down. We're going to succeed at it and to do that without a recession would be a triumph," Goolsbee told CNBC's Steve Liesman during a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "That's the golden path, and I feel like we're on that golden path. So I hope we keep putting off the recession to forever. Let's never have a recession again."Economists, including those working at the Fed, see credit contraction leading to at least a modest recession later this year or early in 2024.However, one of the economy's key cogs, the jobs market, is showing only slight signs of slowing down. Payrolls grew by just 209,000 in June, below Wall Street estimates, but an unemployment rate at 3.6% suggests a resilient economy."Overall, the jobs market is outstanding and is getting back to a balanced, sustainable level," Goolsbee said.Inflation, though, has remained stubbornly high and well above the Fed's 2% goal.Following the June meeting, a strong majority of Federal Open Market Committee officials indicated in their updated quarterly projections that they see at least two more quarter percentage point rate hikes before the end of 2023. Though Goolsbee said he is confident the that inflation is ebbing, he also sees more tightening as likely."The consensus of almost all the FOMC in the statement of projections is that over this year, we will have one or two more hikes. I haven't seen anything that says that's wrong," he said. "That is on the golden path where we get inflation down to something like our target and we do it without a recession."Fed policy is seen as operating with a lag, meaning that the 10 rate hikes since March 2022 likely haven't worked their way through the economy yet. Goolsbee said he is undecided about whether to hike at the July 25-26 FOMC meeting."There are some modest increases to come, but we've done a lot of the lifting and now we're waiting for the impact," he said.
New York Fed data shows underlying inflation may be slower than thought (Reuters) – New data from the New York Federal Reserve showed that underlying inflation has slowed faster than key measures, keeping U.S. central bank officials braced for further interest rate hikes. In a research series now due for monthly release, the New York Fed’s so-called “multivariate basic trend” measure of inflation was 3.5% in May, well below the 4.6% growth rate for the personal consumption expenditure price index. Stripped of its volatile food and energy components. The 68% probability band puts the number at the low end near 3%, with the high point still below 4%, potential evidence that prices are moving toward the Fed’s 2% target faster than thought. The New York Fed’s headline trend also takes into account food and energy commodities that central bankers try to look beyond in assessing the direction of inflation. But it goes a step further and attempts to filter out temporary shocks or price effects across the entire spectrum of goods and services – such as excessive demand for autos and other goods at the start of the pandemic. The resulting model “gives more weight to areas that have relatively few transient shocks and less weight to areas that have large amounts of noise,” New York Fed staff described the research series in a short blog post. Written, to be updated monthly. on the Tuesday following the release of PCE inflation data for each month. They cite as an example motor vehicles as a category that is more sensitive to price fluctuations, and was also a major driver of early pandemic inflation. Housing, in contrast, is one of the “high signal value” items that gets more weight in the model and has recently been pulling the New York Fed’s index below the headline core PCE number, the staff said. That’s because recent data on rents, which have been declining, gets increasingly factored into the New York Fed’s projections. From a monetary policy perspective, the new estimate could bolster arguments for being more cautious about further rate hikes. Some policymakers worry that the core measure of headline inflation has shown little improvement; The New York Fed’s alternative measure suggests it may be the result of temporary factors rather than a more enduring trend. The Fed, after keeping rates steady at its June meeting, is expected to raise the benchmark policy rate by a quarter percentage point at its next meeting, with officials concerned about slow progress toward the 2% inflation target.
US National Debt Spiked by $851 billion in One Month, to $32.3 Trillion. Flood of New Debt Coming in Q3 to Refill the TGA, Pay for Raging Deficits by Wolf Richter - So this is a special day: The U.S. national debt spiked by $851 billion since the debt ceiling was suspended a month ago on June 3, and now hit $32.32 trillion, according the Treasury Department on Friday evening. This is just an amazing freakshow: The US national debt is composed of two types of Treasury securities: “nonmarketable” Treasury securities that cannot be traded in the bond market; and marketable Treasury securities that the government sells via auctions to the public and that can be traded in the bond market. “Nonmarketable” Treasury securities include the inflation-protected “I bonds” that Americans can buy directly from the Treasury Department. Government pension funds, the Social Security Trust Fund, etc. also invest in nonmarketable Treasury securities. The outstanding balance of nonmarketable Treasury securities rose by $123 billion since June 3, to $6.89 trillion. “Marketable” Treasury securities spiked by $728 billion since June 3, to $25.43 trillion. The Treasury Department has been selling vast amounts of Treasury bills and Cash Management bills (CMBs) since June 3, in addition to the long-scheduled issuance of Treasury notes (2 to 10-year maturities) and bonds (over 10 years), to refill its checking account. This “Treasury General Account” (TGA) at the New York Fed had been drawn down to just $23 billion by June 1, nearly nothing compared to the huge amounts that flow through that account on a daily basis. The Treasury General Account has been partially refilled, from the low on June 1 of $23 billion to $465 billion on Friday, through a combination of this huge wave of new issuance of securities and the quarterly estimated tax payments that were due on June 15. But wait a minute… For example, in 2022, the June 15 tax payments caused the TGA balance to jump by $140 billion. A month later, the balance was down by $200 billion. This year too, deficit spending will outstrip quarterly tax receipts by a wide margin. In its Marketable Borrowing Estimates, released on May 1, the Treasury Department expected a TGA balance of $550 billion by the end of June. But Friday was the end of June, and the balance of the TGA was only $465 billion, thanks largely to lower tax receipts. The Treasury estimated that the cash balance will increase in July, decline in August, and increase again in September (due to quarterly tax payments due on September 15), and by the end of September approach $600 billion, the level that is “consistent with Treasury’s cash balance policy.” A wild ride of new issuance to get there… In the quarter starting July 1, so right now, the Treasury expected to borrow $733 billion in marketable securities to get to the $600 billion TGA balance by the end of September, assuming tax receipts don’t fall short again. That $733 billion flood of new issuance will start this week. Refilling the TGA pulls liquidity from the markets, in the opposite way that drawing down the TGA had added liquidity to the markets. Stocks had soared during the drawdown phases, and they had swooned during the first refill phase from late 2021 through April 2022, when the TGA absorbed nearly $1 trillion. In addition, the Fed’s QT, which also pulls liquidity from the market, is running simultaneously with the refilling of the TGA for the first time, with both now pulling liquidity from the markets together. In terms of the Fed’s total assets, the brief bank-bailout spike has been worked off completely.
Yellen heads to China this week advancing U.S. bid to fix ties --U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Beijing on July 6-9, becoming the second member of Joe Biden's cabinet to head to the Chinese capital in recent weeks, as the world's two largest economies look to mend ties after a spate of bilateral tensions. Yellen's trip will take place just three weeks after Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China, highlighting the efforts by the Biden administration to reinstate lines of communication with counterparts in Beijing. The trip announcement ends months of speculation over when — and whether — the top US economic policymaker would head to Beijing. The Treasury chief has said for months she intends to visit, but an escalation in tensions stemming from then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip last year to Taiwan — which Beijing claims as part of China — and the flight of a Chinese balloon over the U.S. left the plans in limbo. China's Ministry of Finance confirmed the visit in a statement on Monday. In Beijing, Yellen will meet with senior Chinese government officials to discuss the importance of responsibly managing the U.S.-China relationship, communicating directly about areas of concern, and working together to address global challenges, the Treasury Department said. While a senior Treasury official didn't say which government representatives Yellen will be meeting with in Beijing, they said she was not expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The official said that through this trip, the U.S. will seek to deepen and increase the frequency of communication between the two countries, stabilize the relationship, avoid miscommunication and expand collaboration where possible. A key priority for the Treasury with China has been pressing Beijing to boost debt relief for developing nations in distress. Yellen's visit will follow a recent agreement in principle for Zambia, which she has praised. The Treasury chief may face questions from her counterparts on the Biden administration's plans to regulate and potentially cut off U.S. corporate investment in China in sensitive technologies. In Beijing, Yellen plans to convey U.S. concern and press for corrective action on areas like coercive actions and nonmarket economic practices used by China, the Treasury official said.
State Department Approves $440 Million Arms Sales for Taiwan - The Biden administration last week approved two potential arms deals for Taiwan worth $440 million amid heightened tensions between the US and China.According to the Pentagon’s Defense Security and Cooperation Agency (DSCA), one deal is for 30mm ammunition and related equipment and is worth $332.2 million. The other sale is worth $108 million and will “support the purchase of spare and repair parts for wheeled vehicles, weapons, and other related elements of program support.”The State Department’s approval begins a period where Congress could block the potential deal, but there is widespread bipartisan support for arming Ukraine and virtually no opposition. The US has sold weapons to Taiwan since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979, but the US has been boosting military support for the island in recent years.The approval drew a rebuke from China, which opposes all US arms sales to Taiwan. “China is firmly opposed to US’s military ties with and arms sales to Taiwan. This position is consistent and unequivocal,”Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.“The US should abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, stop selling arms to Taiwan, stop creating new factors that could lead to tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and stop posing risks to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” she added.
China accuses the US of turning Taiwan into a powder keg with its latest sales of military equipment (AP) — China’s Defense Ministry accused the United States of turning Taiwan into a powder keg on Wednesday with its latest sales of $440 million in military equipment to the self-governing island democracy. The U.S. State Department approved of the sale of 30 mm ammunition and related equipment, along with spare parts for Taiwan’s vehicles, small arms, combat weapon systems, and logistical support items. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Col. Tan Kefei responded that “the U.S. ignores China’s core concerns, crudely interferes in China’s internal affairs, and deliberately escalates tensions across the Taiwan Strait.” China claims Taiwan as its own territory, and Tan said “stern representations” had been lodged with the U.S. Using force to seek independence is wishful thinking and is doomed to failure, he said, using standard Chinese terminology, adding that the People’s Liberation Army was always ready and would maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. maintains a “One China” policy under which it does not recognize Taiwan’s formal independence and has no formal diplomatic relations with the island in deference to Beijing. Nonetheless, U.S. law requires a credible defense for Taiwan and for the U.S. to treat all threats to the island as matters of ''grave concern.” During a transit stop in the U.S. by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in April, during which she met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, China staged three days of large-scale drills around the island, simulating a blockade. China opposes any exchanges at the official level between Taiwan and other governments. On Wednesday, 26 PLA aircraft and 4 Chinese navy ships were detected around Taiwan, the Taiwanese Defense Ministry said. Aircraft, navy vessels and land-based missile systems were monitoring the situation, it said. Few Taiwanese seem fazed by such displays, with the vast majority favoring maintaining the island’s current status of de-facto independence. The island split from mainland China amid civil war in 1949. In its announcement of the sale, the State Department said it “serves U.S. national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability.” . The ammunition and associated equipment will maintain the effectiveness of Taiwan’s CM34 Armored Vehicles while “further enhancing interoperability with the United States.” In addition to purchasing military hardware from the U.S. — with an estimated $19 billion of F-16 fighter jets and other items on backorder — Taiwan has been revitalizing its domestic defense industries, overhauling training and extending compulsory national service for all men from four months to one year. .
US Nuclear-Capable B-52 Bombers Fly to Korean Peninsula in Latest Provocation - US nuclear-capable B-52 bombers flew to the Korean Peninsula on Friday in the latest US provocation against North Korea.The South Korean Defense Ministry and the US military said the bombers participated in exercises and were joined by US and South Korean fighter jets.“The training offered the alliance an opportunity to further strengthen its interoperability by demonstrating a combined defense capability, rapid deployment, and extended deterrence in the defense of the Korean Peninsula,” US Forces Korea said in a press release.The US started sending bombers back to the Korean Peninsula last year when two US B1-B bombers made the trip for the first time since 2017. Now, US bomber flights to the peninsula are a regular occurrence as tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang are soaring.According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, Friday’s B-52 deployment marked the seventh time in the last six months that B-52s or B-1s have flown above or near the Korean Peninsula.The US is planning to dock a nuclear-armed submarine in South Korea for the first time since 1981. President Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced the plan in April, but it’s not clear when the nuclear-armed submarine will arrive.Because US nuclear-armed submarines can be patrolling waters anywhere in the world at any time and carry long-range missiles, from a strategic perspective, docking one in South Korea serves no purpose other than as a provocation toward North Korea.
Yellen opens Beijing trip by criticizing China on treatment of US companies - Treasury Department Secretary Janet Yellen opened her trip to Beijing by criticizing Chinese treatment of U.S. companies, pointing out the conditions that they have faced while operating in China, according to a New York Times report. Speaking Friday to a group of executives from some top U.S. businesses, Yellen attacked the Chinese government’s treatment of companies with foreign connections and its recentdecision to place export controls on materials used to make semiconductor chips. She said at an event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China that she is sharing the concerns she has heard from U.S. business leaders with her Chinese counterparts during her trip, including the creation of barriers for foreign companies to access the market. “I’ve been particularly troubled by punitive actions that have been taken against U.S. firms in recent months,” she said. Yellen’s trip is part of an effort from U.S. officials to ease what have been increasingly rising tensions with China in recent months; Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited last month with the same goal. The U.S. and China recently had a couple of close calls of vessels and jets nearly colliding in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The Biden administration placed technology restrictions on China last year, and China has responded with greater scrutiny of U.S. companies. The Times reported that Yellen said an additional U.S. response to the export controls would be coming. An official from the Chinese finance ministry expressed hope that economic relations would be improved between the two countries following Yellen’s meetings with Chinese officials, according to the Times. They said neither China nor the U.S. would benefit from “decoupling” and disrupting supply chains.
US-China battle over critical raw materials likely to heat up after Beijing hints at fresh export curbs -- Expect China to announce more measures, curbing exports of critical raw materials that are required to manufacture high-end equipment and technology items. Earlier this week, Beijing’s sudden decision to restrict shipment of gallium and germanium – needed to manufacture chips, solar panel, computer motherboards, mobile phones among many other items came as a rude shock to the world. Though China said that the decision was necessary to protect its national interest and security, it was directly aimed at the US. Wei Jianguo, former vice-minister of commerce told local news organisation China Daily that the dragon’s “export restrictions on gallium and germanium is just the beginning, and the country has more tools for countermeasures if Washington plans tougher technology restrictions on Beijing.” According to Wei, the decision was not sudden but was well thought out and was taken to create panic and pain in certain countries. “This is just the beginning of China’s countermeasures, and China’s tool box has many more types of measures available. If the high-tech restrictions on China become tougher in the future, China’s countermeasures will also escalate,” he told the news organisation. As the tech battle between the two largest economies of the world intensify, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to China will be keenly watched. While she is expected to somewhat ease the tension, experts see little long-term impact. Although her visit is well-intentioned, it will not be a panacea for the current conflicts between the United States and China, South China Morning Post said. Experts, however, also opined that such knee jerk reactions could end China’s dominance in this field as countries will eventually start to look out for alternate supply sources even as Beijing at present produces about 60 per cent of the global germanium requirement and 80 per cent of gallium. In fact, in the post Covid phase the exercise to diversify supply chain networks have already begun. Besides, China’s natural resources for these items are depleting fast, something that Beijing must account for. From August 1, exporters dealing in these items would require prior approval of the government. It also said that certain items “meeting certain characteristics shall not be exported without approval.”
Russia Says Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Moscow 'Not Possible' Without US Support - The Russian Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow and other areas inside Russia would not be possible without support from the US and NATO. The comments came after the Russian military said it downed five drones that attacked Moscow. No casualties or damage were reported in the attack.“These attacks would not be possible without the help provided to the Kyiv regime by the US and its NATO allies,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. The ministry added that the US and NATO were “training drone operators and providing the necessary intelligence to commit such crimes.” It’s not clear if the US and NATO are enabling the drone attacks, but there are signs the Western powers are involved. Following drone attacks on Russian airbases in December 2022, an Asia Times report cited military sources in NATO countries who said the drones used US satellite GPS data to hit their targets. US military equipment has also been used in attacks on Russian territory despite Ukrainian assurances. A cross-border attack in Russia’s Belgorod region was launched on May 22 using US armored vehicles and NATO rifles. One of the groups involved in the attack armed with US weapons, the Russian Volunteer Corps, includes members who are open neo-Nazis and white nationalists.The New York Times reported last month that the Biden administration is no longer concerned about Ukrainian attacks inside Russia escalating the war. . But if Russia perceives that the US and NATO are enabling these attacks, the risk of escalation is very high.
Burns Calls Ukraine War Major 'Opportunity' for CIA Recruiting Spies - CIA Director William Burns said in a speech on Saturday that the war in Ukraine provides his spy agency a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to recruit Russians.“Disaffection with the war will continue to gnaw away at the Russian leadership, beneath the steady diet of state propaganda and practiced repression. That disaffection creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us at CIA, at our core a human intelligence service,” Burns told the Ditchley Foundation in the UK, according to The Hill.Burns mentioned how the CIA has been openly trying to recruit people inside Russia using social media. “We’re not letting it go to waste. We recently used social media — our first video post to Telegram, in fact — to let brave Russians know how to contact us safely on the dark web. We had 2.5 million views in the first week, and we’re very much open for business,” he said.The CIA published a video on Telegram and YouTube in May asking Russians to contact the spy agency with links using Tor, a web browser that encrypts user activity. The idea is to use Tor to access a CIA site on the dark web that the agency uses to gather information from people around the world. The CIA has been posting similar instructions on social media throughout the war.On the same day Burns delivered his speech, CNN reported that he had recently traveled to Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. A US official said that the trip took place before Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived uprising against the Russian military establishment.Zelensky confirmed that he met with Burns in an interview with CNN recorded on Sunday but said his dealings with the American spy chief should be kept secret. “My communication with the CIA chief should always be behind the scenes,” he said. “We discuss important things — what Ukraine needs and how Ukraine is prepared.”
Poland Wants to Host US Nuclear Weapons in Response to Russian Nukes in Belarus - Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called for US nuclear weapons to be deployed to Poland in response to Russia sending tactical nukes to Belarus.Morawiecki said Warsaw wants to join NATO’s nuclear sharing program, under which US nuclear weapons are deployed in Germany, Belgium, Italy, Turkey, and the Netherlands.“Since Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, we again call on all of NATO to take part in the nuclear sharing program,” Morawiecki told reporters on Friday.“The final decision will depend on our American and NATO partners. We declare our will to act quickly in this matter,” he added.Warsaw has previously called for the deployment of US nukes on its territory, and Polish President Andrzej Duda said last year that he had discussed the issue with Washington.There are currently no US nuclear weapons deployed in countries that joined NATO after the end of the Cold War, but that could change as the alliance is building up its presence in countries that border Ukraine and Russia, known as NATO’s eastern flank.
Biden's upcoming European trip is meant to boost NATO against Russia as the war in Ukraine drags on — President Joe Biden will head to Europe at week’s end for a three-country trip intended to bolster the international coalition against Russian aggression as the war in Ukraine extends well into its second year.The main focus of Biden’s five-day visit will be the annual NATO summit, held this year in Vilnius, Lithuania. Also planned are stops in Helsinki, Finland, to commemorate the Nordic country’s entrance into the 31-nation military alliance in April, and Britain, the White House announced Sunday. Biden will begin his trip next Sunday in London, and will meet with King Charles III at Windsor Castle the next day, according to Buckingham Palace. The president did not attend Charles’s coronation in May, sending first lady Jill Biden to represent the United States. In June, Biden hosted British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the White House, where the two leaders pledged continued cooperation in defending Ukraine.The NATO meeting comes at the latest critical point in the war. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says counteroffensive and defensive actions against Russian forces are underway asUkrainian troops start to recapture territory in the southeastern part of the country, according to its military leaders. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, visited the White House on June 13, where he and Biden made clear that the Western alliance was united in defending Ukraine. Biden said during that meeting that he and other NATO leaders will work to ensure that each member country spends the requisite 2% of its gross domestic product on defense.
US set to send cluster bombs to Ukraine in latest military package: report -- The U.S. is expected to announce its plans to provide Ukraine with cluster bombs in a new military package on Friday, according to The Associated Press.Cluster bombs, which are designed to explode and send multiple small munitions over a wide area, are relatively controversial due to the risk that unexploded bombs can injure or kill civilians.The Pentagon plans to send Kyiv munitions with a lower “dud rate,” or the rate at which they fail to explode, to reduce the threat to civilians, according to the AP. The cluster bombs will reportedly have a dud rate of less than 3 percent.Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder specified at a press briefing on Thursday that the Pentagon is not considering providing cluster munitions with a dud rate greater than 2.35 percent and said that they would “be carefully selecting rounds with lower dud rates for which we have recent testing data.” Kyiv has been asking for cluster bombs since last year, but Washington had previously held off. More than 100 countries — notably excluding the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — have signed a 2008 treaty barring the use, transfer, production and stockpiling of such munitions.In addition to the cluster bombs, the $800 million military package set to be announced on Friday will also include Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles, as well as ammunition for howitzers and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), the AP reported.
Report: Former Senior US Officials Held Secret Talks With Russians - A group of former senior US officials has held talks with influential Russians, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an effort to lay the groundwork for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, NBC News reported on Thursday.However, later in the day, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the report “fake”and said it was “disinformation spread by the West.”The report claimed that the meeting with Lavrov took place when he was in New York for a UN Security Council meeting back in April. It said issues discussed included potential diplomatic off-ramps and the fate of Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory. Throughout the war, there has been no known engagement between the Biden administration and the Russian government on these issues.The former US officials who NBC claims met with Lavrov were Richard Haas, a former US diplomat and outgoing president of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Charles Kupchan and Charles Graham, who are both fellows for the Council on Foreign Relations.Sources told NBC that the discussions have taken place with the knowledge of the Biden administration but not at its direction. The former US officials who met with Lavrov briefed the White House National Security Council about the discussion.Other discussions have involved former US officials and people who work at prominent think tanks and research institutions in Russia who are said to be close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s not clear how often the talks are taking place. In at least one instance, a former US official traveled to Russia as part of the effort.The Biden administration distanced itself from the reported talks in comments to the press. “The Biden administration did not sanction those discussions,” a State Department spokesperson said. “And as we’ve said repeatedly, nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the White House was aware of unofficial talks between former US officials and Russians. “But I want to make it clear that these discussions were not encouraged or engendered by us and we were not supporting them in any active way,” Kirby said.
US Plans Naval Logistics Hub in India as Part of Buildup Against China --The US wants to turn India into a center for resupplying and maintenance of naval vessels in South Asia as part of its military buildup against China in the region, Nikkei Asia reported Thursday.The US has no military bases in India but has been working on increasing military ties with New Delhi in recent years. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited Washington and signed a slew of defense agreements with President Biden.According to Nikkei, the US will provide India with support to develop infrastructure to resupply, repair, and maintain ships and aircraft. Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the aim is to “make India a logistics hub for the United States and other partners in the Indo-Pacific region.”The US Navy is working on signing deals with Indian shipyards as part of the effort. The idea is to make it easier for US warships and warplanes to operate in the region without having to travel too far for maintenance.The US and India are both members of the Quad, a security grouping that also includes Australia and Japan. In 2020, the four nations began conducting joint military exercises, and US officials are calling for more joint air and naval deployments with India to counter China in the region.The US has also increased cooperation with India over its disputed border with China in the Himalayas, known as the Line of Actual Control. According to a report from US News, the US provided India with unprecedented intelligence sharing that helped Indian troops in a clash with Chinese soldiers along the LAN in December 2022 that resulted in dozens of injuries.
John Bolton Accidentally Explains Why US Policy On Russia And China Is Wrong – Caitlin Johnstone -- Professional psychopath John Bolton has an article out with The Hill titled “America can’t permit Chinese military expansion in Cuba” which inadvertently spells out exactly what’s wrong with the way the US empire keeps amassing heavily armed proxy forces on the borders of its large Asiatic enemies.Citing a Wall Street Journal report from last month in which anonymous US officials claim that Havana has entered negotiations with Beijing for a possible future joint military training facility in Cuba, Bolton argues that the US must use any amount of aggression necessary to prevent this facility’s construction, up to and including regime change interventionism.“The potential of significant Chinese facilities in Cuba is a red-flag threat to America,” Bolton writes, arguing that such activities “could well camouflage offensive weapons, delivery systems or other threatening capabilities.”“For example, hypersonic cruise missiles, already harder to detect, track, and destroy than ballistic missiles, are natural candidates for installation in Cuba, a prospect we cannot tolerate, along with many other risks, like a Chinese submarine base,” he adds.All of which are arguments that could be made pretty much note-for-note by Russia and China about the ways the US has been threatening their security interests with war machinery in their immediate surroundings. Any time there’s the faintest whisper of a foreign power setting up a military presence in Washington’s neck of the woods, hawks immediately begin pounding the drums of war and exposing the hypocrisy of the US empire’s insistence on its right to form military alliances and amass proxy forces on the doorstep of its geopolitical rivals. Empire apologists always dismiss Russia and China’s claims that US military encroachments on their surroundings are an unacceptable security risk and say that no nation has a right to a “sphere of influence” which its enemies are forbidden to enter, yet we can plainly see that the US reserves a right to its own sphere of influence from its own doctrines and behaviors.Earlier this year Senator Josh Hawley ominously asked an audience, “Imagine a world where Chinese warships patrol Hawaiian waters, and Chinese submarines stalk the California coastline. A world where the People’s Liberation Army has military bases in Central and South America. A world where Chinese forces operate freely in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.” Which is exactly what the US military has been doing to China.The single dumbest thing the US-centralized empire asks us to believe is that the military encirclement of its top two geopolitical rivals is a defensive action, rather than an act of extreme aggression. The idea that the US militarily encircling Russia and China is an act of defense rather than aggression is so in-your-face transparently idiotic that anyone who thinks critically enough about it will immediately dismiss it for the foam-brained nonsense that it is, yet because of propaganda that is the mainstream narrative in the western world, and millions of people accept it as true.
‘Totally Indefensible’: Biden Nominates Death Squad Backer Elliott Abrams to Diplomacy Panel - President Joe Biden on Monday quietly nominated Elliott Abrams to serve on a bipartisan diplomacy commission, a move that human rights advocates condemned as outrageous given the longtime Republican official’s past as adefenderof Latin American death squads and cheerleader for murderous U.S. foreign policy interventions.“A totally indefensible decision from Biden,” MSNBC‘s Mehdi Hasan wrote on Twitter, pointing to Abrams’ guilty pleastemming from the Reagan-era Iran-Contra scandal and his broader record in Latin America.Most recently, Abrams served as the Trump administration’s special envoy to Iran and Venezuela. During a 2019 House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) grilled Abrams on his role in the Reagan administration’s policy in El Salvador, whose U.S.-backed military carried out the largest massacre in modern Latin American history in 1981 in and around the village of El Mozote.Omar noted during the 2019 hearing that Abrams “later said that the U.S. policy in El Salvador was a ‘fabulous achievement.'”After recounting the appalling details of the El Mozote killings—in which around 140 children were murdered—Omar asked Abrams, “Do you think that massacre was a ‘fabulous achievement’ that happened under our watch?”“That is a ridiculous question, and I will not respond to it,” Abrams fumed in response. “I am not going to respond to that kind of personal attack, which is not a question.”Abrams attempted to downplay the El Mozote massacre shortly after it occurred, telling the U.S. Senate that news reports of the gruesome killings were “not credible” and were being misused by anti-government forces.In response to news of the Biden administration’s decision to nominate Abrams to the State Department’s Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy, former longtime Human Rights Watch executive director Kenneth Roth wrote that Abrams’ “most notorious public diplomacy is downplaying the 1981 El Mozote massacre of 1,000 people by U.S.-trained-and-equipped Salvadoran military units.”Raymond Bonner, a former New York Times correspondent in El Salvador,wrote for The Atlantic in 2019 that “the Reagan administration, with Abrams as point man, routinely defended the Salvadoran government in the face of evidence that its regular army, and allied right-wing death squads, were operating with impunity, killing peasants, students, union leaders, and anyone considered anti-government or pro-guerrilla.”“Abrams went so far as to defend one of the death squads’ most notorious leaders, Roberto D’Aubuisson, who was responsible for the murder of Archbishop Óscar Romero while he was saying Mass, in March 1980,” Bonner added.The Biden White House predictably failed to mention the sordid details of Abrams’ record in its nomination announcement, offering a sterilized biography that lists off the notorious figure’s previous government roles: Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs, Human Rights, and Latin America under Ronald Reagan, a senior director of the National Security Council under George W. Bush, and special representative for Iran and special representative for Venezuela under Donald Trump, among others.
Presidents Keep Hiring Elliott Abrams Because The US Empire Is Just That Evil – Caitlin Johnstone -- CNN reports that President Biden has nominated criminal neocon Elliott Abrams for a position on the United States Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy, which according to the US State Department is responsible for “appraising activities intended to understand, inform, and influence foreign publics” and pays “acute attention” to the US government’s official foreign propaganda arm, the US Agency for Global Media. Usually when you hear someone called a “neocon” it’s not a strictly accurate description from a technical point of view and is frequently used to just mean “warmonger”, but Abrams is actually a proper PNAC neoconservative ideologue with deep ties to the old-school neocons of the 1970s, and has helped promote violent US imperialism in Latin America and the Middle East for decades.In addition to serving as the Trump administration’s special representative for both Iran and Venezuela (two of the nations where Trump’s foreign policy was at its most murderous), Abrams is probably best known for confessing to his role in the criminal coverup of Iran-Contra during the Reagan administration. CNN — notoriously reluctant to criticize both US foreign policy and Democratic presidential administrations — was surprisingly critical on this point in its report on Biden’s nomination of Abrams to the position.In an article titled “Biden nominates controversial former Trump-appointee to Public Diplomacy Commission,” CNN’s Jack Forrest writes the following: Elliott Abrams, who has served in three Republican administrations, most recently acted as the Trump administration’s special envoy to Iran and Venezuela where he was tasked at the time with directing the campaign to replace Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro. The Republican insider’s long history in foreign policy is marked by a 1991 guilty plea for withholding information about the Iran-Contra affair that earned him two misdemeanor counts, two years probation and 100 hours of community service — though his crimes were later pardoned by President George H.W. Bush.The secret Iran-Contra operation, which took place during Abrams’ time as an assistant secretary of state in the Reagan administration, involved the funding of anti-communist rebels in Nicaragua using the proceeds from weapon sales to Iran despite a congressional ban on such funding. Again in his role under former President Ronald Reagan, Abrams was also blasted by a Human Rights Watch report for his attempts in a February 1982 Senate testimony to downplay reports of the massacre of 1,000 people by US-trained-and-equipped military units in the Salvadoran town of El Mozote in December 1981 — the largest mass killing in recent Latin American history. He insisted the numbers of reported victims were “implausible” and “lavished praise” on the military battalion behind the mass killings — stances he doubled down on when they were put on display during a 2019 House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing by Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat, who used his history in Latin American to call into question his credibility. When you’re so gross that even CNN is disgusted by you, you’re a special kind of gross.As Forrest noted, this would be the fourth presidential administration that Abrams has been a part of, despite being a confessed crook and despite pushing for bloodshed at every opportunity in some of the US empire’s most notorious criminal actions. Abrams is such a cold-hearted killer that he openly admitted during a 1985 conference that the purpose of aiding the Contras in Nicaragua was “to permit people who are fighting on our side to use more violence,” and has promoted US military violence against Iraq, Syria and Iran with remarkable forcefulness throughout his career. The fact that someone so tyrannical, so corrupt and so unscrupulous keeps getting appointed to positions involved with US foreign policy tells you everything you need to know about the nature of US foreign policy.
McCarthy’s office shares VR footage of Indian leader Narendra Modi’s address to Congress House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) office on Thursday released a new video from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech to a joint meeting of Congress last month, this time in virtual reality.The 360-degree view from two VR cameras allows the American public the rare opportunity to virtually “sit” next to McCarthy as he gaveled in the joint meeting from the rostrum and to view highlights of Modi’s speech from the balcony of the House chamber. It also featured a roaming shot of Modi walking down the center aisle. In his speech, Modi lauded India’s relationship with the U.S. and echoed many Americans’ concerns over the role of China in the Indo-Pacific.“When I speak about India’s approach to the world, the United States occupies a special place. I know our relations are of great importance to all of you. Every member of this Congress has a deep interest in it,” Modi said.A small group of Democrats boycotted the joint meeting, citing allegations that Modi has promoted human rights abuses, limited press freedoms and discriminated against his country’s Muslim minority.
Biden’s trade experiment is ticking people off. His trade rep is on the receiving end. -- President Joe Biden wants to establish a “new economic world order” that focuses less on serving U.S. consumers — the norm for decades — and more on protecting American workers. For his chief trade ambassador, Katherine Tai, the policy shift has been a tough sell. When she goes to Capitol Hill, Tai is harangued by lawmakers who complain the administration’s trade agenda is unambitious and inadequate to compete globally. In her travels around the country, she hears from business owners who grouse that the administration is not opening more markets to exports. Overseas, she faces outrage from foreign officials about Biden’s efforts to goose domestic industry. Even progressive advocates, who share the administration’s skepticism of free trade, have staged protests against negotiations they fear will weaken labor and environmental standards. The response underscores the depths of resistance that Biden and his team face as they try to abandon key tenets of globalization that presidents of both parties have embraced for decades. Tai is among the leading voices in the Biden administration contending the change is necessary to help U.S. workers, combat supply chain disruptions and counter an increasingly assertive China. She’s under increasing pressure to sell this shift as Biden launches his reelection bid, where it’s critical he shows his trade agenda delivers for U.S. workers in the ways he has promised. The country’s economic outlook will be front of mind for voters and a top target for his Republican challenger — potentially former President Donald Trump, whose criticism of free trade helped propel him to the White House in 2016. Biden’s trade pivot includes shunning the sprawling free trade agreements pushed by his predecessors — from Bill Clinton’s NAFTA to Barack Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership. Instead, the administration is refusing to cut tariffs on imports and trying to craft regional agreements in Latin America and the Indo-Pacific that do not require congressional approval, as well as trade and investment partnerships with Kenya and Taiwan.
Biden administration will probe high-cost medical financial products - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Treasury Department and the Department of Health and Human Services have launched a joint inquiry into high-cost financial products that Americans use to make health care-related purchases. Medical payment products were originally meant to cover care not typically included in health insurance plans, including dental care, vision care and fertility services, the three federal agencies said Friday. But they have since expanded to include a broader range of needs, such as emergency room visits and primary care. The agencies put out a public request for comment on the products, saying that they have been pushed on patients as a way to pay for routine care, which has driven up both health care costs and medical debt. "Financial firms are partnering with health care players to push products that can drive patients deep into debt," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release. In a separate fact sheet, the White House said Friday that the CFPB, the Treasury Department and the Department of Health and Human Services will explore whether efforts to convince consumers to sign up for medical credit cards and loans are breaking the law. The White House on Friday announced a number of other efforts related to health care costs, including one that's meant to reduce surprise medical billing. For more than a year, the Biden administration has been taking aim at so-called "junk fees" paid by consumers. In their request for information, the three federal agencies said they want to understand the market for specialty medical payment products, including interest and fee costs, as well as marketing, application and approval processes. They also plan to explore patient experiences, potential risks and whether consumers fully comprehend the risks associated with the products. Additionally, the agencies are looking at how medical credit cards and loans exacerbate existing issues in health care billing and collections — particularly for uninsured and out-of-network patients who are often charged higher prices.
Biden's junk fee crusade turns to short-term health insurance plans (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday announced new steps to crack down on short-term health insurance plans and surprise medical bills, stepping up his war against so-called junk fees to lower healthcare costs.This will include a proposed rule that closes loopholes companies use to offer misleading short-term insurance products, discriminate based on pre-existing conditions, offer little to no coverage and saddle consumers with thousands of dollars worth of medical expenses, Biden said."It's not necessarily about healthcare, it’s about being played for a sucker," Biden said at a White House event announcing the policies. "That's a scam and it has to end."The Obama administration in 2016 limited short-term insurance plans to three months to try to get more people on year-round plans, but regulations adopted by the Trump administration in 2018 allowed people to stay on such plans for 12 months and renew them for three years.
House Republicans come for EPA agents' guns - House Republicans are once again angling to get rid of EPA enforcement officers’ firearms.Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) has offered legislation — H.R. 4416, the “No Funds for Armed Regulators Act of 2023” — that would eliminate funding for armed law enforcement agents at the federal government’s premier environmental agency as well as the IRS and Department of Labor.The bill represents the GOP’s latest attempt to strip EPA of its guns, a recurring target for the party’s lawmakers that stretches back across administrations.“There was a pretty extreme edge to the regulatory enforcement agents that interacted with my constituents, especially in rural areas,” Higgins said in an interview with E&E News. “I was surprised to find that these regulatory agencies had armed police officers rolling up into my constituents’ properties to enforce their regulations.”EPA’s Criminal Investigation Division is the agency’s law enforcement branch. Its special agents are authorized to carry weapons and make arrests for offenses against environmental laws, an EPA spokesperson said.“The authority for EPA special agents to carry weapons has garnered long-standing and broad bipartisan support,” the agency spokesperson said. “Our agents carry weapons as a critically important public safety measure, for the safety of the agents themselves, and for EPA’s ability to effectively enforce environmental laws.”Higgins introduced the bill on June 30. Seven House Republicans have signed on as co-sponsors so far, according to congressional records. While EPA, IRS and Labor are the three targeted agencies, Higgins said the bill was written to be easily amended through the committee process.The legislation says no federal funds can be used to hire or retain “armed Federal regulatory enforcement officers” at those agencies. The bill defines those officers as individuals hired to enforce laws and regulations “through any tactical means, including use of force or weapons.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis campaigns on “shoot on sight” anti-immigrant policy - This past Monday, Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis said that should he become president, the “rules of engagement” for law enforcement and military elements deployed to the US-Mexico border would be revised to allow them to use “deadly force” if they suspect “hostile intent.” While former President Donald Trump has boasted that he will embark on the “largest deportation operation in history” if elected again, DeSantis is the first Republican presidential candidate to claim that he will empower border police to shoot non-violent immigrants crossing the border. Speaking to a small group of Republican voters in Eagle Pass, Texas, DeSantis said, “You spend all this money on [the border wall], and you just let them cut through with impunity? I think you need adequate rules of engagement... I say use force to repel them. You do that one time, they will never do it again.” Seeking to outflank Trump to the right with his anti-immigration policies, DeSantis, who is trailing the ex-president by some 30 points in the latest Republican presidential primary polling, claimed that as president he would designate Mexican cartels either “transnational criminal organizations” or “foreign terrorist organization.” As part of his “No Excuses” anti-immigrant program, DeSantis said he would create a “Joint Counter-Cartel Task Force” that would allow the US government to deploy military and intelligence assets along the border, and into Mexico as part of an expansion of the “war on terror.” “We are going to use a designation that is going to pack a punch,” DeSantis added. Selling himself to the ruling class as a more competent fascist dictator compared to Trump, DeSantis hissed, “For the president to battle against the cartels, you don’t even need Congress.” Threatening a war with Mexico, DeSantis’ said that his administration would “reserve the right to operate across the border,” including “surging resources to the Navy and Coast Guard” to block Mexican ports.And as is the case with virtually every Republican candidate for president, DeSantis pledged to overturn the 14th Amendment provision that guarantees citizenship for every person born in America.
Migrant Workers Flee Florida as New Immigration Law Takes Effect - Florida’s agricultural and construction industries say they are experiencing a labor shortage because a new immigration law that took effect July 1, 2023, is leading migrant workers to leave the state. The law, signed in May by Florida governor and GOP presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, seeks to further criminalize undocumented immigration in the state. The law makes it a third-degree felony for unauthorized people to knowingly use a false identification to obtain employment. Businesses that knowingly employ unauthorized workers could have their licenses suspended, and those with 25 or more employees that repeatedly fail to use the E-Verify system to check their immigration status can face daily fines. Business owners and workers alike say the ranks of laborers in Florida have grown noticeably thinner. “The employee who wants to work on the farm is not available anymore,” said Hitesh Kotecha, owner of a produce packaging facility in South Florida who leases land to farmers. “How are we going to run the farms?”
Florida construction and agricultural workforces diminished after new immigration law takes effect --A new law that took effect in Florida on July 1 is already hitting the state's agricultural and construction industries hard.The law, signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in May, makes it a third-degree felony for people to use a false identification to get hired for work. Any business that is found to knowingly employ those unauthorized workers could have its license revoked and face daily fines. Additionally, hospitals that accept Medicaid are now required to question a patient's immigration status, driver's licenses given to undocumented immigrants in other states are invalid, and it's a third-degree felony to knowingly transport undocumented immigrants into the state. An estimated 772,000 undocumented immigrants lived in Florida in 2019, with many working on construction sites, farms and packaging facilities. Migrant workers began leaving the state once DeSantis signed the new law in May,The Wall Street Journal reported, including those who are authorized to work but are married to someone who isn't. A spokesperson for DeSantis defended the law, saying that businesses that hire undocumented immigrants "instead of Floridians will be held accountable." At multiple construction sites in Miami, workers shared with the Journal that they have lost about half of their crews; one man said he knows people who went to Indiana, where they could make $38 an hour instead of $25 and not have to worry about running afoul of the immigration law. Tom C. Murphy, co-president of Coastal Construction, told the Journal there was already a labor shortage before the law went into effect, and while "we fully support documentation of the immigrant workforce, the new law is aggravating an already trying situation."Immigration is usually a federal area of law, immigration lawyer Daniela Barshel told the Journal, and it will be difficult to give guidance to clients when there are differing state and federal rules. "It's kind of extreme that Florida passed a law like this," she said. Companies cannot be advised to stop hiring noncitizens, since that could be discrimination on the basis of race or national origin, leaving businesses with no easy path forward. "You don't want to be fined by the government, and you also don't want to be sued by someone because they were authorized to work and you didn't hire them," Barshel said.
DeSantis faces GOP pushback for Trump-LGBTQ video Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) presidential campaign is facing pushback after his team shared a video attacking former President Trump over his past comments in support of the LGBTQ community. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D), the first openly gay man to be confirmed as Cabinet secretary, responded to the video on CNN Sunday by asking who DeSantis was trying to “make better off” with the video. Caitlyn Jenner, the former Olympic decathlete who came out as transgender in 2015, said the video marked “a new low” for the campaign. Even 2024 Republican presidential contenders Chris Christie and Will Hurd said the video was divisive. The video shared Friday — the last day of LGBTQ Pride month — includes resurfaced clips of the former president saying he would “do everything in my power” to protect LGBTQ citizens and expressing support for transgender individuals to use the restroom of their choice. The video then cuts to clips of DeSantis and a series of headlines discussing policies DeSantis has passed as governor of Florida concerning the LGBTQ community, including a ban on transgender people using public bathrooms that are consistent with their gender identity and restrictions on access to gender-affirming health care. Some LGBTQ Republicans, responding to Friday’s video, said in interviews with The Hill that they would no longer support DeSantis as the GOP nominee in 2024. Some questioned whether they would back a Republican candidate at all.
Greene ousted from Freedom Caucus, board member says -The hard-line House Freedom Caucus has voted to remove Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) from its ranks, according to Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), a caucus board member. “A vote was taken to remove Marjorie Taylor Greene from the House Freedom Caucus for some of the things she’s done,” Harris told Politico and CNN on Thursday. A spokesperson for the House Freedom Caucus (HFC) would not confirm whether the group voted to remove Greene, pointing to its policy of confidentiality. “HFC does not comment on membership or internal process,” they said. In a statement responding to news, Greene did not directly address her membership status in the House Freedom Caucus. “In Congress, I serve Northwest Georgia first, and serve no group in Washington. My America First credentials, guided by my Christian faith, are forged in steel, seared into my character, and will never change,” she said. “I fight every single day in the halls of congress against the hate-America Democrats, who are trying to destroy this country. I will work with ANYONE who wants to secure our border, protect our children inside the womb and after they are born, end the forever foreign wars, and do the work to save this country. The GOP has less than two years to show America what a strong, unified Republican-led congress will do when President Trump wins the White House in 2024. This is my focus, nothing else,” Greene concluded.
Education Secretary Cardona on where student loan relief goes from here : NPR -- (interview transcript & podcast) Almost immediately after the Supreme Court struck down the administration's student loan forgiveness plan, President Joe Biden and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona fought back.Hours after the ruling, the White House announced three debt relief proposals: create a legal workaround to debt forgiveness, institute an income-driven repayment plan and establish an "on-ramp" for borrowers to ease back into making monthly payments that were suspended during the pandemic.The Department of Education, which Cardona heads, will have to lead the charge on the measures. More than two-thirds of its budget goes to student aid programs like loans and grants.The department has already finalized Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE), an income-driven repayment plan aimed at cutting borrowers' monthly payments in half and ensuring a borrower's balance doesn't grow from unpaid monthly interests. Anyone repaying their student loans is eligible to enroll this summer before loan payments start back up.Cardona also started a process that would allow him to cancel or reduce loans in certain circumstances under the Higher Education Act."We're going to keep fighting. We believe the Supreme Court got it completely wrong. We believe that they were ideological plaintiffs," Cardona told Morning Edition.The Department's on-ramp to repayment will span Oct. 1, 2023 to Sept. 30, 2024, when "financially vulnerable" borrowers who miss payments will not be reported to credit bureaus or have their loans placed in default, considered delinquent or referred to debt collection agencies."We're going to move forward using whatever pathway we can to provide that relief," Cardona said in a conversation with NPR's Steve Inskeep.This interview has been lightly edited for clarity.
What will Biden's new plan mean for borrowers set to begin paying back their student loans? (AP) — Following the Supreme Court’s decision to effectively kill Biden’s earlier student debt forgiveness proposal, the White House is trying again to ease the burden on those carrying student loans using a different legal approach.Biden’s original plan would have canceled up to $20,000 in federal student loans for 43 million people. Of those, 20 million would have had their remaining student debt erased completely.With repayments set to begin in October, many borrowers are wondering if they still have to pay. Here’s what to know about where the new Biden plan stands.Under the proposed approach, the White House is now planning to use the Higher Education Act of 1965 — a sweeping federal law that governs the student loan program — to bring about relief for student borrowers.Biden said the authority of the act will provide “the best path that remains to provide as many borrowers as possible with debt relief.”The law includes a provision giving the education secretary authority to “compromise, waive or release” student loans.In its previous attempt to forgive student loans, Biden’s White House appealed to a bipartisan 2003 law dealing with national emergencies, known as the HEROES Act, for the authority to cancel the debt. The court’s 6-3 decision, with conservative justices in the majority, said the administration needed Congress’ endorsement before undertaking so costly a program.So far, it remains unclear which loan holders will qualify and how much of their debt will be forgiven. To figure it out, the Education Department will go through a process known as negotiated rulemaking.Hours after the Supreme Court decision, President Joe Biden announced a 12-month grace period to help borrowers who struggle after payments restart. Biden said borrowers can and should make payments during the first 12 months after payments resume, but, if they don’t, they won’t be at risk of default and it won’t hurt their credit scores. Interest will resume in September, however, and it will accrue whether borrowers make payments or not. Biden reiterated that it is not the same as the student loan pause, adding that “if you can pay your monthly bills, you should.”Experts at the Student Borrower Protection Center and Institute of Student Loan Advisors encourage borrowers not to begin to make payments again until the fall, when interest starts up again and the pause lifts, since there is no penalty for not doing so during the freeze. Instead, any savings that would have gone to payments can earn interest in those remaining few months.Finally, after the year-long grace period, if you’re in a short-term financial bind, you may qualify for deferment or forbearance — allowing you to temporarily suspend payment.
Joe Biden's Plan to Save Student Loan Forgiveness Faces Huge Hurdle --President Joe Biden's new plan to pursue student loan forgiveness for millions of borrowers is likely to face hurdles, law professors told Newsweek.Biden on Friday vowed to push ahead with a new plan while blaming Republican "hypocrisy" for the Supreme Court's decision that killed his initial initiative. But the court's 6-3 decision, with conservative justices in the majority, said the Biden administration overstepped its authority with its $400 billion plan. The court rejected arguments that the HEROES Act, a bipartisan 2003 law dealing with national emergencies, gave Biden the power to wipe away or reduce student loans held by millions.Speaking at the White House, the president said his administration would now work towards a new path for student debt relief using the Higher Education Act of 1965. "It's going to take longer, but, in my view, it's the best path that remains to providing for as many borrowers as possible with debt relief," he said.Since student loan repayments are set to resume in October, the White House is also creating a temporary "on-ramp" repayment program that will remove the threat of default for borrowers who fail to make payments on time when the current pause ends.Biden said his new debt relief effort "is legally sound." His administration has maintained the original plan was legal.Biden is "moving forward in the only way the Chief Justice's opinion in Biden v. Nebraska leaves open to him," Laurence H. Tribe, an emeritus Harvard University law school professor, told Newsweek."By invoking Higher Education Act of 1965 and directing the Secretary of Education to move forward with a new debt relief program using the Administrative Procedure Act to submit its details for public comment, Joe Biden is fireproofing his plans against successful legal challenges."That doesn't mean opponents won't bring suit, Tribe said."These folks are nothing if not litigious, and it's part of their DNA to resort to lawsuits against whatever they don't find to their liking. As long as they avoid legally frivolous challenges, there's nothing wrong with that," he said."What's wrong, though it's likely to happen, is the filing of legally silly challenges that stand a chance of surviving motions to dismiss only because, by combining strategic judge-shopping with the knowledge that federal litigation can wind its way to a predictably right-wing Supreme Court supermajority, the lawyers bringing them and the deep pockets supporting those lawyers may well find themselves on the winning side of legally flawed lawsuits."
Student-Loan Borrowers Not Guaranteed Relief Under Biden's New Plan - It's unclear who would get student-loan forgiveness under President Joe Biden's new plan.Last week, the Supreme Court struck down Biden's first plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt using the HEROES Act of 2003, which allows the education secretary to waive or modify student-loan balances in connection with a national emergency, like COVID-19.It's not the end of the road. Just hours after the court handed down the decision, Biden announced a new plan to cancel student debt using the Higher Education Act of 1965, which doesn't require a national emergency for relief.The Higher Education Act says the US Education Department can "enforce, pay, compromise, waive, or release any right, title, claim, lien, or demand" related to federal student debt. The education secretary, Miguel Cardona, announced on Friday that he had started the negotiated-rulemaking process — which includes hearings and public comment — to get the ball rolling on using that law. The HEROES Act, in contrast, did not require negotiated rulemaking and would have allowed the department to move through implementation much quicker. Given the new standards surrounding the Higher Education Act, it's not yet guaranteed that the same borrowers who benefitted from Biden's first proposal would qualify for the president's new plan."The Department will design the parameters of the program with public participation over the coming months," the department's FAQ stated. "However, the Secretary has directed his staff to explore policy options for debt relief that will help as many people as possible."It's unclear what those policy options would be at this point, but the department's FAQ said that "the Secretary has begun a new rulemaking process to consider other ways to provide debt relief to as many working and middle-class borrowers as possible."Bharat Ramamurti, the deputy director of the National Economic Council, also said during a Friday press briefing that "one of the things about the rulemaking process is that we can't actually prejudge its outcome. Part of how we do this process is that we initiate it, we put a proposal on the table, we work with stakeholders to get their input. That ends up shaping the scope of the proposal."
Biden's new student debt relief plan will likely face legal challenges As President Joe Biden looks to revive a key campaign promise to provide widespread debt relief to student-loan borrowers, legal experts warn that he's likely to encounter a fresh wave of lawsuits challenging his authority to act without congressional approval. Hours after the Supreme Court axed Biden's initial attempt at debt forgiveness on June 30, the president announced a new plan that he said is "legally sound" and is the best option remaining to deliver sweeping relief to millions of borrowers as quickly as possible. But even in a best-case scenario, the new plan can't be rolled out until long after October, when loan payments are due to resume after a three-year pause. And it could still be vulnerable to legal attacks targeting executive powers, as it relies on the authority of the Higher Education Act, which governs financial assistance in post-secondary schooling. "I have no doubt that any relief under the Higher Education Act will face a spate of lawsuits, essentially pitching the same claim — that the administration acted outside of its statutory authority," said Steven Schwinn, a professor at the University of Illinois John Marshall Law School in Chicago. The high court ruled that the administration overstepped its authority by authorizing such a broad, costly program under a 2003 law that gives the education secretary special powers over loans when responding to national emergencies. The court held that the law — called the Heroes Act — does not allow for such drastic action, despite the unprecedented nature of the pandemic. "The question here is not whether something should be done; it is who has the authority to do it," Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the court, concluding those powers rest with Congress. Roberts also offered a hint at how the high court might rule if a plan based on the Higher Education Act lands back on justices' desks. He wrote in the majority opinion that the act could only be used to cancel or reduce loans under "limited circumstances," specifically for public servants, bankrupt borrowers, people who've become severely disabled or those defrauded by their institution. Although the court's ruling was based on the Heroes Act, the opinion signaled implicitly that the language in the Higher Education Act would not be considered as a valid basis for the scope of student-debt relief Biden initially sought, according to Jed Shugerman, a professor at Boston University School of Law. "It wrote this decision in a way that is meant to preview for federal courts, both the Roberts' Court or lower courts, the same reasoning that would strike down the waiver based on the Higher Education Act," Shugerman said. "The Roberts' court point was: Don't try this again," he said.
The Post's View: What the Supreme Court got right about Biden’s student loan plan - By The Washington Post Editorial Board -- In August 2022, the Biden administration decreed $379 billion worth of debt forgiveness for 43 million student borrowers, based on its interpretation of a 20-year-old statute clearly intended to authorize only more selective and limited relief. On Friday, a 6-3 majority of the Supreme Court agreed with Missouri that this interpretation was too creative and must be voided, though to decide the case, the court resorted to creative interpretation of its own — regarding the state’s standing to sue. In this contest between the imperial executive and the imperial judiciary, Congress was mostly a bystander, though both chambers did recently vote by narrow but bipartisan majorities to overturn President Biden’s plan. (Special rules barred a Senate filibuster.) Mr. Biden vetoed that resolution on June 7.This is not a great moment for the separation of powers. But at least the net effect is positive in policy terms. Mr. Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan was a mistake, and not only because of its high cost and shaky statutory foundation. The plan offered $10,000 for individuals making less than $125,000 a year, and $20,000 for borrowers who were previously recipients of Pell Grants for low-income students. Even so, some $140 billion of the benefit would accrue to relatively well-educated, mostly White students from affluent family backgrounds, according to an analysis by Adam Looney of the Brookings Institution. Every dollar of relief would come from the broader taxpaying public, mostly made up of workers who did not attend or complete college. There’s nothing in it at all for those who saved for college and didn’t borrow.The plan might still have been worthwhile if it came accompanied by structural reforms to the nation’s system for financing higher education. But it did not. After this one-off benefit for current borrowers, new students would have signed up for loans, possibly borrowing even more than they would have otherwise, given that the Biden administration had created the expectation of another debt write-off someday. There would be no incentive for colleges and universities to control the costs that feed rising tuition rates.Unquestionably, the $1.8 trillion in student debt that 43 million people owe represents a burden on household finances for many, and a potential drag on the overall economy. And yet neither effect should be overstated; student debt, at least in part, pays for itself in enhanced human capital, both for individual borrowers and for the economy as a whole.
Opinion | On student loan forgiveness, Amy Coney Barrett makes a major statement - – by George Will - President Biden’s attempt to spend $430 billion through student loan forgiveness showed Trumpian insouciance regarding legality. By ruling 6-3 against it last week, the Supreme Court unremarkably buttressed the separation of powers by protecting Congress’s power of the purse.But this decision should reverberate throughout the administrative state’s sprawl because Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s concurring opinion persuasively defends the court’s major questions doctrine (MQD). The MQD requires Congress to speak clearly if it intends to authorize executive agencies to exercise powers of vast economic and political significance.Biden’s aim was a regressive transfer of wealth to a privileged minority (more than one third of Americans over 25), college graduates who haveaverage lifetime earnings of $1 million more than people without bachelor’s degrees. The folly of Biden’s policy was not the court’s concern. The scale of it, however, was relevant to the MQD.Biden claimed to find authority for forgiveness in a post-9/11 law passed to help members of the military by authorizing the executive branch to “waive or modify” terms of student financial assistance “in connection with a war or other military operation or national emergency.” As Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. noted, calling loan forgiveness for 43 million Americans “modifying” the terms of assistance is akin to saying the French Revolution “modified” the French nobility.Roberts relied on the law’s text more than the MQD. But during February’s oral arguments about loan forgiveness, Roberts said if so much money is to be spent, affecting the obligations of so many Americans, “that’s something for Congress to act on.”(Congress did act — by rejecting forgiveness. Between 2020 and 2022, Congress passed $5 trillion in pandemic relief bills, one of whichsuspended student loan payments, but none authorized forgiveness. So, Congress had spoken clearly by not delegating forgiveness authority.)Disregarding that the Roberts opinion did not rely on the MQD, Justice Elena Kagan, in dissent, renewed her attack on it. Being intellectually consistent, she is as spirited in opposition to the doctrine as she generally is in defense of the core progressive vision: executive agencies run by experts enjoying large delegations of power from a deferential Congress. Dissenting from the court’s curtailment of Biden’s discretion,Kagan called the major questions doctrine a “made-up” rule. Well, yes. So is the exclusionary rule (prohibiting the government use of illegally obtained evidence in criminal trials). The court also “made-up” theMiranda rule (requiring police to advise detained people of their rights to counsel and to remain silent). Chevron deference, admired by progressives and Kagan, is a made-up part of administrative law (federal courts shall generally defer to executive agencies’ interpretations of ambiguous statutes). Progressives’ “aggregation doctrine” gives the federal government an unenumerated power over individuals whose personal activities (e.g., growing wheat or pot for personal consumption) do not affect interstate commerce.These rules do not “magically appear” (Kagan’s language disparaging the MQD). Constitutional law is partly a tapestry of rules made up to apply the Constitution’s spare language in myriad contexts. The question always is: Is a particular rule conducive to, or implied by, constitutional values (e.g., due process) or imperatives (e.g., separation of powers)? Intelligent people can disagree about a particular rule, but dismissing it as “made-up” settles nothing.
Pressley, Ocasio-Cortez call for changes to the Supreme Court - House progressives are calling for changes to the Supreme Court following a slate of decisions affecting affirmative action, student debt cancellation and LGBTQ protections. “The courts, if they were to proceed without any check on their power, without any balance on their power, then we will start to see an undemocratic and, frankly, dangerous authoritarian expansion of power in the Supreme Court,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Ocasio-Cortez has called for changes to the high court,including expanding the number of justices on the bench. In ending federal abortions rights last year, and landing a blow to LGBTQ protections in a decision out Friday, the court is signaling “a dangerous creep toward authoritarianism,” she said. SCOTUS recap: What this term says about the Supreme Court Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), another prominent House progressive, also slammed the Supreme Court’s recent rulings on Sunday, saying if the court were a caucus in Congress, would be the “bootstrapper forced to birth don’t say gay caucus.” “They continue to overturn the will of the majority of the people and to make history for all the wrong reasons, legislating from the bench and being political from the bench,” Pressley said during an interview on MSNBC’s “The Katie Phang Show.” “It is nothing but intersectional oppression,” she added. We have a new app. Download the upgraded version for iOS or Android. Both members of Congress said that every option should be on the table when it comes reining in the court’s power and reforming its ethics. “We should be considering subpoenas and investigations. We must pass much more binding and stringent ethics guidelines,” Ocasio-Cortez said.
The US Supreme Court’s rampage against democratic rights - Since the US Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision 13 months ago, which overturned Roe v. Wade and deprived women of the constitutional right to access abortion, the ultra-right majority on the court has engaged in a rampage against basic democratic rights and the social rights of the working class. This culminated Friday in two decisions with the same 6-3 split among the justices: to declare unconstitutional the Biden administration’s limited reduction of student loan debt owed to the US government; and to endorse the “right” of a commercial web designer to refuse to create materials for the wedding of a gay couple. The class character of the first decision is obvious: an executive action by the federal government to bail out wealthy bank depositors is constitutional, but not a limited action to help debt-burdened students. The second decision destroys a constitutional right to be free of discrimination, while paying lip service to the First Amendment. The court declares that the web designer can justify her bigotry on the basis of “freedom of religion.” The vast majority of the American people support both debt relief for college students and equal rights for gays and lesbians—as well as abortion rights. These perverse and reactionary decisions are the product of a profoundly undemocratic political structure in which popular feeling is systematically overridden in favor of the interests of a tiny ruling elite. Amid the massive surge in military spending to pay for the war with Russia in Ukraine and the escalating military buildup in the Pacific against China, the institutions of American capitalism are dropping any pretense of either addressing the economic needs of the population or representing the views of the majority of the public. The high court, far from being a neutral political arbiter or an impartial interpreter of constitutional norms, has revealed itself as the spearhead of political reaction. This is not just a matter of the personal corruption of the individuals on the court. Many of the “justices” have the closest ties to wealthy sponsors, who shower them with bribes in return for judicial favors. In the recent period, both Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito were revealed to have taken lavish vacations and other financial perks from billionaire “friends.” The Supreme Court as an institution is profoundly undemocratic. The nine justices are unelected and appointed for life terms. They are not subject to any code of ethics or independent monitoring, and are effectively unremovable. No Supreme Court justice has ever been impeached. Of the six justices who make up the right-wing majority, five were appointed by presidents who themselves were not elected by the people. Both George W. Bush, who appointed John Roberts and Samuel Alito, and Donald Trump, who appointed Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, lost the popular vote and became president only thanks to another undemocratic institution, the Electoral College. In the case of Bush, the Supreme Court directly intervened to stop the recounting of ballots in Florida to hand him the presidency in 2000. The Electoral College is itself based on an even more undemocratic institution, the United States Senate, in which each of the 50 states has two senators, regardless of population. A state like California, with 39 million people, has the same representation as Wyoming or Vermont, which have 583,000 and 647,000 people, respectively. Such small states can be easily controlled by the most right-wing corporate interests.
Senate Judiciary chairman blasts John Roberts for inaction on Supreme Court reform - Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (Ill.) criticized Chief Justice John Roberts on Thursday for failing to enact ethics reform before the court wrapped up its term this month and pledged to advance a Democratic ethics reform bill soon. “Many questions remain at the end of the court’s latest term regarding its reputation, credibility, and ‘honorable’ status. I’m sorry to see Chief Justice Roberts end the term without taking action on the ethical issues plaguing the court,” Durbin said. Durbin juxtaposed recent reports by ProPublica about lavish vacations that conservative Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito accepted from conservative donors with the court’s recent “decisions that dismantled longstanding precedents and the progress our country has made over generations.” His comments appeared to reference the court’s decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard — in which six conservative justices rejected affirmative action programs at Harvard and the University of North Carolina — as well as its decision last year to overturn Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion. “The highest court in the land should not have the lowest ethical standards. That’s why, as I previously announced, the Senate Judiciary Committee will mark up Supreme Court ethics reform legislation when the Senate returns after the July 4th recess,” Durbin said. Durbin said he would announce the timing of a vote in his committee on court reform legislation “early next week.” “Since the chief justice has refused to act, the Judiciary Committee must,” he said. Durbin hasn’t said what legislation he plans to mark up, but one contender is the Supreme Court Ethics, Recusal and Transparency Act sponsored by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), who chairs the Judiciary subcommittee on courts.
The man named in the Supreme Court's gay rights ruling says he didn't request a wedding website (AP) — A Colorado web designer who the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Friday could refuse to make wedding websites for gay couples cited a request from a man who says he never asked to work with her.The request in dispute, from a person identified as “Stewart,” wasn’t the basis for the federal lawsuit filed preemptively seven years ago by web designer Lorie Smith, before she started making wedding websites. But as the case advanced, it was referenced by her attorneys when lawyers for the state of Colorado pressed Smith on whether she had sufficient grounds to sue.The revelation distracts from Smith’s victory at a time when she might have been basking in her win, which is widely considered a setback for gay rights.Smith named Stewart — and included a website service request from him, listing his phone number and email address in 2017 court documents. But Stewart told The Associated Press he never submitted the request and didn’t know his name was invoked in the lawsuit until he was contacted this week by a reporter from The New Republic, which first reported his denial.“I was incredibly surprised given the fact that I’ve been happily married to a woman for the last 15 years,” said Stewart, who declined to give his last name for fear of harassment and threats. His contact information, but not his last name, were listed in court documents.He added that he was a designer and “could design my own website if I need to” — and was concerned no one had checked into the validity of the request cited by Smith until recently.Smith’s lawyer, Kristen Waggoner, said at a Friday news conference that the wedding request naming Stewart was submitted through Smith’s website and denied it was fabricated.
Legitimacy of 'customer' in Supreme Court gay rights case raises ethical, legal flags A Christian graphic artist who the Supreme Court said can refuse to make wedding websites for gay couples pointed during her lawsuit to a request from a man named “Stewart” and his husband-to-be. The twist? Stewart says it never happened.The revelation has raised questions about how Lorie Smith’s case was allowed to proceed all the way to the nation’s highest court with such an apparent misrepresentation and whether the state of Colorado, which lost the case last week, has any legal recourse. It has served as another distraction at the end of a highly polarizing term for a Supreme Court marked by ethical questions and contentious rulings along ideological lines that rejected affirmative action in higher education and President Joe Biden’s$400 billion plan to cancel or reduce federal student loan debts. About a month after the conservative legal group Alliance Defending Freedom filed the case in Colorado federal court in 2016, lawyers for the state said it should be dismissed partly because Smith hadn’t been harmed by the state’s anti-discrimination law. Smith — who did not plan to start creating wedding websites until her case was resolved — would first have to get a request from a gay couple and refuse, triggering a possible complaint against her, the state argued. Smith’s lawyers maintained that she didn’t have to be punished for violating the law before challenging it. In a February 2017 filing, they revealed that though she did not need a request to pursue the case, she had, in fact, received one. An appendix to the filing included a website request form submitted by Stewart on Sept. 21, 2016, a few days after the lawsuit was filed. It also included a Feb. 1, 2017, affidavit from Smith stating that Stewart’s request had been received.Two documents Smith filed with the Supreme Court briefly mention that she had received at least one request to create a website celebrating a same-sex wedding but do not elaborate.The request stated that Stewart and his fiancé Mike were looking for design work on things like invitations and place setting cards for their upcoming wedding. “We might also stretch to a website,” the form said.Lawyers for Colorado wrote in their brief to the Supreme Court in August that it did not amount to an actual request for a website and the company did not take any steps to verify that a “genuine prospective customer submitted the form.” It’s not clear whether the state took any steps to verify whether Stewart — whose contact information was included in court papers — was a real potential customer.Stewart told The Associated Press last week that he didn’t even know his name had been invoked in the case until he was contacted by a reporter for The New Republic,which first reported his denial. Stewart, who declined to give his last name for fear of harassment and threats, said he was incredibly surprised, adding he has been married to a woman for 15 years.
Judge puts sweeping limits on government contact with social media - The Washington Post - A federal judge barred a slew of government agencies and officials from communicating with social media companies to limit “protected free speech,” a seismic decision that could shackle efforts to clamp down on medical hoaxes, election misinformation and other content. “The injunction,” as my colleague Cat Zakrzewski reported, “came in response to a lawsuit brought by Republican attorneys general in Louisiana and Missouri, who allege that government officials went too far in their efforts to encourage social media companies to address posts that they worried could contribute to vaccine hesitancy during the pandemic or upend elections.” The preliminary ruling — a victory for conservatives — could have a major chilling effect on contacts between tech companies like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter and a broad swath of federal agencies. Here’s what you need to know: The order from judge Terry A. Doughty prohibits the agencies and officials involved in the case from meeting with, flagging to or “engaging in any communication of any kind with” social media companies “urging, encouraging, pressuring, or inducing in any manner for removal, deletion, suppression, or reduction of content containing protected free speech.” The order also bans officials from “threatening, pressuring, or coercing social-media companies in any manner to remove, delete, suppress, or reduce” protected speech, from urging them to “change their guidelines,” or from “requesting content reports” regarding takedowns.Jameel Jaffer, executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, called the order “certainly too broad,” and said that “it would insulate the platforms not just from coercion but from criticism as well.”David Greene, senior staff attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation digital rights group, said that the ruling did not adequately acknowledge that there can be “appropriate” interactions between the government and social media companies regarding protected speech and that it did not provide enough “clarity” about when that can cross into unlawful coercion. “In many situations, it's appropriate for the government to urge a private party to take some action as long as they don't threaten some type of penalty against it,” he said. The judge’s order lists dozens of employees and agencies impacted, including:
- The White House; the Department of Health and Human Services and its secretary, Xavier Becerra; the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; the Centers for Disease Control; and U.S. Surgeon General Vivek H. Murthy, whose offices or employees contacted social media companies about misleading coronavirus and vaccine information.
- The FBI; the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; the Justice Department; and the State Department, whose officials interacted with social media companies regarding foreign propaganda and election disinformation.
- The Census Bureau, which worked with social media companiesto curtail misinformation about the 2020 census during the Trump administration.
The order also blocks communications with outside groups that have facilitated interactions with social media companies, including the Election Integrity Partnership, the Virality Project and the Stanford Internet Observatory.
Biden administration argues social media ruling could cause ‘grave harm’ - The Biden administration said a court ruling limiting how it can contact social media sites could cause “grave harm,” as the administration attempts to appeal the decision.The administration filed a motion Thursday to stay the preliminary injunction, ruled on Tuesday. The injunction sides with Republican attorneys general who claim that the contact puts undue pressure on those companies’ freedom of speech.The Justice Department (DOJ) already announced that it will appeal to the motion on Wednesday.In the motion, Biden administration attorneys say the contact between the executive branch and social media platforms “includes speaking on matters of public concern and working with social media companies on initiatives to prevent grave harm to the American people and our democratic processes.”If the administration’s motion is granted, the injunction would be halted pending the DOJ appeal.The original suit was brought by the Republican attorneys general of Louisiana and Missouri, who called the contact a “campaign of censorship” and accused the administration of a “coordinated and colluded with social-media platforms to identify disfavored speakers, viewpoints, and content.”The group specifically cited actions by the Biden administration to counter COVID-19 vaccine misinformation and efforts to promote election integrity.Under the current injunction, executive branch officials can only contact social media companies about criminal activity, national security threats and posts “intending to mislead voters about voting requirements and procedures.”
Suspicious powder found at the White House when Biden was gone was cocaine, AP sources say(AP) — The White House was briefly evacuated Sunday evening while President Joe Biden was at Camp David after the Secret Service discovered suspicious powder in a common area of the West Wing, and a preliminary test showed the substance was cocaine, two law enforcement officials said Tuesday.Secret Service agents were doing routine rounds on Sunday when they found the white powder in an area accessible to tour groups, not in any particular West Wing office, the officials said. The officials were not authorized to discuss an ongoing investigation and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.The complex was evacuated at about 8:45 p.m. Sunday as fire and emergency crews were brought in to do a rapid test, which preliminarily identified cocaine. The White House was soon reopened and the powder was sent for further testing.Biden and his family left for Camp David on Friday and returned to the White House on Tuesday.The Secret Service said in a statement the White House was closed as a precaution as emergency crews investigated, and that the District of Columbia fire department was called in to evaluate and determine that the substance was not hazardous.
White House cocaine discovery becomes GOP ‘political fodder’ - The discovery of cocaine near the West Wing of the White House is causing a political headache for President Biden, leaving him exposed to criticisms from his GOP opponents while raising concerns about security at the complex. Administration officials have been fielding uncomfortable questions this week about how cocaine got into the White House amid a Secret Service investigation into the matter. Meanwhile, media chatter about the discovery is overshadowing what the White House wishes the focus could be on instead: glimmers of hope in the economy, NATO and other domestic and foreign issues it sees as far more pressing. “I’m sure it’s incredibly frustrating. This is also the struggle with any White House. You plan and you plan and you plan and you have perfect events and the perfect schedule and something unexpected is thrown into the mix,” said a Democratic strategist and aide in a previous administration. The story has been dominating television news since the discovery Sunday inside a work area of the West Wing, which led to a precautionary closure of the White House complex, according to administration officials. The Secret Service confirmed Wednesday that the substance was cocaine. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre spent much of that day’s briefing fielding question after question about the discovery, with few additional details to share other than the Secret Service would “get to the bottom of this.” Conservative media, however, opted to associate the cocaine found to the president’s son Hunter Biden, who has had a history of drug use, despite there being no such links and the fact that neither Hunter nor Joe Biden were at the White House that day. President Trump, meanwhile, lashed out at the media for its coverage and questioned: “Does anybody really believe that the COCAINE found in the West Wing of the White House, very close to the Oval Office, is for the use of anyone other than Hunter & Joe Biden.” One source close to the administration, however, said it was handling the situation “very well.” “It’s all political fodder right now, political bull s***,” the source said.
'America's Darkest Secret': Sex Trafficking, Child Abuse, & The Biden Administration - The criminal practice of trafficking and abusing hundreds of thousands of migrant children who cross the southern border is now, thanks to the open-border policy of the Biden Administration, apparently "normal" inside the US:"According to Customs and Border Protection, since January 2021 when Biden took the oath of office, there have been 5,118,661 encounters with illegal immigrants along the southern border."These numbers do not include reports that "at least 1.2 million illegal immigrants," or "gotaways," who "were confirmed to have unlawfully crossed the U.S.-Mexico border.""The actual number of illegal immigrants... [is] unknown. It could be double the number of known gotaways, it could be three times worse, or more. We just don't know...."Currently, at least 85,000 children are believed to be missing.According to Customs and Border Protection statistics,"[T]he number of UACs [Unaccompanied Alien Children] who arrive at the border has swelled from 33,239 in fiscal year 2020 to more than 146,000 in fiscal year 2021 and 152,000 in fiscal year 2022. So far in fiscal year 2023, there have been more than 70,000 encounters of unaccompanied children."Many of those children are raped, used for forced labor, and forced to undertake brutal jobs ostensibly to "work off" their debt by the criminal cartels who reportedly now control the Mexican side of the border and brought the children in. According to Tara Lee Rodas, a Health and Human Services whistleblower, in testimony before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement on April 26:"Whether intentional or not, it can be argued that the US Government has become the middleman in a large scale, multi-billion-dollar, child trafficking operation run by bad actors seeking to profit off the lives of children."She described the practice as "modern-day slavery"."Today, children will work overnight shifts at slaughterhouses, factories, restaurants to pay their debts to smugglers and traffickers. Today, children will be sold for sex. Today, children will call a hotline to report the are being abused, neglected, and trafficked....."I must confess; I knew nothing about their suffering until 2021 when I volunteered to help the Biden Administration with the crisis at the Southern Border. As part of Operation Artemis, I was deployed to the Pomona Fairplex Emergency Intake Site in California to help the HHS [Department of Health and Human Services] Office of Refugee Resettlement reunite children with sponsors in the US."I thought I was going to help place children in loving homes. Instead, I discovered that children are being trafficked through a sophisticated network that begins with being recruited in home country, smuggled to the US border, and ends when ORR [Office of Refugee Resettlement] delivers a child to a Sponsors – some sponsors are criminals and traffickers and members of Transnational Criminal Organizations. Some sponsors view children as commodities and assets to be used for earning income - this is why we are witnessing an explosion of labor trafficking.
Justice Department releases slightly less redacted Trump warrant affidavit -- The Justice Department (DOJ) on Wednesday released a slightly less redacted version of the affidavit that convinced a judge to approve a search warrant of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate last year.This follows a ruling from Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart earlier in the day that ordered that more information from the affidavit be made public, while denying a request from several news organizations to have the entire document unsealed.Reinhart said in his ruling that the DOJ agreed to have some additional parts of the affidavit be made public, but also asked for other parts to remain sealed “to comply with grand jury secrecy rules and to protect investigative sources and methods.”He found that the DOJ had “met its burden of showing that its proposed redactions of the affidavit are narrowly tailored to serve the Government’s legitimate interests and are the least onerous alternative to sealing the entire search warrant affidavit.”Reinhart stayed the order until July 13 to give the DOJ time to determine whether to appeal.This comes nearly a year after the DOJ released a heavily redacted version of the affidavit. The document revealed that Trump had far more classified material than was previously known and indicated he had mischaracterized his level of cooperation with federal officials in the matter.Trump, who announced his 2024 presidential campaign last November, was charged with 37 counts last month for his mishandling of classified documents and efforts to prevent the federal government from retrieving them.Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges against him.
Trump posted what he said was Obama's address, prosecutors say. An armed man was soon arrested there - (AP) — Former President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform what he claimed was the home address of former President Barack Obama on the same day that a man with guns in his van was arrested near the property, federal prosecutors said Wednesday in revealing new details about the case. Taylor Taranto, 37, who prosecutors say participated in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol, kept two firearms and hundreds of rounds of ammunition inside a van he had driven cross-country and had been living in, according to a Justice Department motion that seeks to keep him behind bars. On the day of his June 29 arrest, prosecutors said, Taranto reposted a Truth Social post from Trump containing what Trump claimed was Obama’s home address. In a post on Telegram, Taranto wrote: “We got these losers surrounded! See you in hell, Podesta’s and Obama’s.” That’s a reference to John Podesta, the former chair of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Democratic presidential campaign. Taranto also told followers on his YouTube live stream that he was looking to get a “good angle on a shot.”A federal defender representing Taranto did not immediately return a phone message seeking comment.His wife told investigators that he had come to Washington this time because of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s offer earlier this year to produce unseen video of the Jan. 6 attack, the federal detention memo states. Taranto already faces four misdemeanor counts related to the Capitol assault, when prosecutors say he joined the crush of rioters who broke into the building and made his way to the entrance of the Speaker’s Lobby outside the House chamber.Since then, prosecutors say, Taranto has been active online, posting a Facebook video of himself in the Capitol that day and endorsing a conspiracy theory that the death ofAshli Babbitt — who was fatally shot by a Capitol Police officer as she began to climb through the broken part of a door leading into the Speaker’s Lobby — was a hoax.The FBI had been monitoring Taranto’s online activities because of his involvement in the riot, and began searching for him last Wednesday after he asserted on his YouTube livestream that he was in Gaithersburg, Maryland on a “one-way mission” and intended to blow up the National Institute of Standards and Technology.The following day, he continued his live stream from the Washington neighborhood where Obama lives — an area heavily monitored by the U.S. Secret Service — and said that he was looking for “entrance points” and wanted to get a “good angle on a shot,” according to the Justice Department’s detention memo. Officials said he was spotted by law enforcement a few blocks from the former president’s home and fled, though he was chased by Secret Service officers.
Prosecutor in the Hunter Biden case denies retaliating against IRS agent who talked to House GOP (AP) — The federal prosecutor leading the investigation of President Joe Biden’s son Hunter is pushing back against claims that he was blocked from pursuing criminal charges in Los Angeles and Washington and denies retaliating against an IRS official who disclosed details about the case.In a two-page letter to House Republicans on Friday, U.S. Attorney David Weiss in Delaware defended the lengthy investigation into Hunter Biden’s financial dealings that ended last month with a plea with the Justice Department that likely spares Biden from time behind bars.Weiss, who was named to that post by President Donald Trump and was kept on by the Biden administration, said in his letter that the department “did not retaliate” against Gary Shapley, an IRS agent who said the prosecutor helped block Shapley’s job promotion after the tax agency employee had reached out to congressional investigators about the Biden case.Shapley is one of two IRS employees interviewed by Republicans pursuing investigations into nearly every facet of the younger Biden’s business dealings.One of the investigating committees, the House Ways and Means Committee, voted to publicly disclose congressional testimony from the IRS employees shortly after the plea deal was announced June 20.The testimony from Shapley and an unidentified agent detailed what they called a pattern of “slow-walking investigative steps” and delaying enforcement actions in the months before the 2020 presidential election won by Democrat Joe Biden.It is unclear whether the conflict they describe amounts to internal disagreement about how to pursue the investigation or a pattern of interference and preferential treatment. Justice Department policy has long warned prosecutors to take care in charging cases with potential political overtones around the time of an election, to avoid influencing the outcome.
CL0P Ransomware Gang Attacks Top June Cyber Headlines www.gov -- July 2nd - The CL0P ransomware gang, reportedly based in Russia, has breached at least 122 organizations using MOVEit zero day exploits. Here’s what you need to know. On June 7, 2023, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued an advisory (Alert code AA23-158A) highlighting the very serious challenge posed by the CL0P ransomware gang’s exploitation of the MOVEit software vulnerability. Progress Software, the company behind MOVEit, has acknowledged the vulnerability and taken swift measures to mitigate it. CISA advised the following actions to take today to mitigate cyber threats from CL0P ransomware:
- Take an inventory of assets and data, identifying authorized and unauthorized devices and software.
- Grant admin privileges and access only when necessary, establishing a software allow list that only executes legitimate applications.
- Monitor network ports, protocols and services, activating security configurations on network infrastructure devices such as firewalls and routers.
- Regularly patch and update software and applications to their latest versions, and conduct regular vulnerability assessments.
Still, the announcements grew over the next three weeks, underlining the widespread impact from this ransomware gang. Here are some of the major cyber story headlines (and brief summaries) for June 2023: Washington Post — What you should know about the MOVEit ransomware attack:
The latest victim of the MOVEit data breach is the Department of Health and Human Services - Federal health officials have notified Congress of a data breach that could involve the information of more than 100,000 people.A representative of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said Thursday that attackers gained access to the department’s data by exploiting a vulnerability in widely used file-transfer software.Other government agencies, major pension funds and private businesses also have been affected by a Russian ransomware gang's so-called supply chain hack of the software MOVEit.The HHS official did not provide details on the type of data affected but said none of the department’s systems or networks were compromised. Instead, the hackers accessed data managed by third-party vendors that the official did not name.HHS reported to Congress on Tuesday what it considers to be a “major incident,” which occurs when the data of 100,000 people or more is affected, the official said.The breach of the MOVEit file-transfer program, discovered last month, is estimated by cybersecurity experts to have compromised hundreds of organizations globally. Confirmed victims include the U.S. Department of Energy, other federal agencies, more than 9 million motorists in Oregon and Louisiana, Johns Hopkins University, Ernst & Young, the BBC and British Airways.On Wednesday, the Tennessee Consolidated Retirement System said the data of more than 171,000 retirees and beneficiaries was involved in the breach. Last week, California’s public pension fund said the personal data of more than 769,000 retired workers and beneficiaries had been stolen.The parent company of MOVEit’s U.S. maker, Progress Software, alerted customers to the breach on May 31 and issued a patch. But cybersecurity researchers say scores — maybe hundreds — of companies could by then have had sensitive data quietly exfiltrated. The Cl0p ransomware syndicate behind the hack has indicated that it would extort victims, threatening to dump their data online if they don’t pay up.
Lawyers for Epstein’s Victims Ask for $87 Million in Legal Fees from the $290 Million JPMorgan Settlement; Victims Could Get Nothing after Releasing their Claims - By Pam and Russ Martens - There are three shocking takeaways from the class action settlement documents that were filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York last week in the Jeffrey Epstein victims’ case against Wall Street megabank, JPMorgan Chase. (See settlement documents linked at the end of this article.)First, the attorneys for the unnamed victims are requesting $87 million in legal fees from the $290 million settlement amount, plus another $2.5 million in expenses. The victims, on the other hand, are guaranteed no minimum monetary payment but must file a release form before they learn if they will get a dime. This language appears in the settlement documents:“All Class Members shall be bound by all determinations and judgments in the Litigation concerning the Settlement (including, but not limited to, the releases provided for therein) whether favorable or unfavorable to the Class, regardless of whether such Persons seek or obtain by any means (including, without limitation, by submitting a Questionnaire and Release, or any similar document) any distribution from the Net Settlement Fund.” The third shocking takeaway is that we could find no news story from mainstream media, which has heavily covered this story, that mentioned these and other egregious terms of the settlement. JPMorgan was sued for facilitating Epstein’s child sex-trafficking for more than a decade by providing him with millions of dollars in hard cash from his accounts, sometimes as much as $40,000 to $80,000 a month, to pay off victims and enablers. The bank failed to file the Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) that it is legally mandated to file with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). Epstein’s quid pro quo with the bank included him referring valuable business deals and clients to JPMorgan Chase. These allegations were substantiated by 22 pages of internal bank emails released in a related case brought against the bank by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands.The law firms representing Epstein’s victims – Boies Schiller Flexner LLP and Edwards Henderson Lehrman (EHL) – filed the lawsuit on November 24, 2022. The terms of the $290 million settlement were filed on June 22 of last week. The proposed $89.5 million payday for these attorneys for seven months work comes to approximately $426,000 a day, including weekends.
JPMorgan's Dimon, Staley urge end to shareholders' Jeffrey Epstein lawsuit (Reuters) - Jamie Dimon and Jes Staley do not agree on who to blame for JPMorgan Chase's (JPM.N) relationship with former client Jeffrey Epstein, but agree that a shareholder lawsuit over their alleged failure to police the disgraced financier should be thrown out. Lawyers for Dimon, the bank's chief executive, and Staley, a former private banking and investment banking chief, urged a dismissal in filings late Thursday in Manhattan federal court.Shareholders led by pension funds in Miami and Pittsburgh have said Dimon, seven other JPMorgan directors and Staley "put their heads in the sand" and ignored internal warnings as Epstein used his accounts to further abuses of young women and girls.Lawyers for Dimon and the directors said there was no showing that either knowingly ignored red flags about Epstein, or that Dimon was involved in keeping Epstein as a client. "The claims against Mr. Dimon are based on nothing more than pure speculation and innuendo," the lawyers said.Staley's lawyers, meanwhile, said the shareholders made "no showing whatsoever" that compliance was his job, and that unlike Dimon, "whose writ, as CEO, presumably ran the gamut - Mr. Staley served in discrete roles lower in the corporate hierarchy."The so-called derivative lawsuit seeks to have the defendants or their insurers pay damages to JPMorgan, benefiting shareholders.Lawyers for the two pension funds did not immediately respond on Friday to requests for comment.JPMorgan agreed last month to pay $290 million to settle claims by dozens of Epstein victims.It is also defending against a lawsuit by the U.S. Virgin Islands, where Epstein owned two neighboring private islands.The New York-based bank is suing Staley to cover its losses in both lawsuits, and return eight years of pay.Staley has expressed regret for his friendship with Epstein and denied knowing about his sex trafficking. He also served as Barclays' (BARC.L) chief executive from 2015 to 2021. The case is City of Miami General Employees & Sanitation Employees Retirement Trust et al v Dimon et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 23-03903.
JPMorgan Chase using ChatGPT-like large language models to detect fraud - In Ryan Schmiedl's work protecting JPMorgan Chase from fraud of all kinds, business-email compromise has been the most devastating type of attack lately. Fraudsters look for the weakest link, the place that is least protected, Schmiedl said. And they often find it somewhere inside a corporate client. "In a lot of cases, they're attacking corporates, because there are so many people in a corporate entity and they don't communicate a lot," Schmiedl — who is global head of payments, trust and safety at the bank — said on a panel at Fintech Connect last week. He oversees JPMorgan's efforts to detect fraud and financial crimes through fraud controls, sanctions screening, know-your-customer checks and other means. Before joining the bank, he had a similar role at Amazon. "I can't tell you how many times we have clients that have been socially engineered," he said. Often fraudsters send an authentic-looking email that appears to be from a genuine vendor or partner. It might say the company is changing accounts, and that the recipient should send the money to a convincing but fake website the fraudsters have created. Whenever bank employees become suspicious of a corporate transaction and call clients to ask if they are sure they want to send the money, clients often initially say yes because they believe the transaction is legitimate. It's only when vendors call a few days later to say they never received payment that clients realize they were duped. To catch incidents like these and the many other types of fraud banks are hit with constantly, JPMorgan is using large language models, a type of technology that can process large amounts of text and that is behind the wildly popular artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT. This is part of a trend in which many organizations, including banks, payments networks like Swift and online gambling companies like Caesars Entertainment, are shifting from more basic machine learning to advanced AI in their pursuit of bad actors and suspicious transactions.
BankThink: AI is about to make synthetic fraud a much bigger problem | American Banker --Andy Dufresne, in addition to being falsely imprisoned for murder, was apparently quite a whizat money laundering. Having earned the trust of the Shawshank prison warden and its guards, Dufresne found creative ways to channel the warden's stream of ill-gotten gains into the marketplace and back out again as legitimate investments, all the while having the paper trail lead to an imaginary person — a person whose identity he then assumes upon his escape from prison.But synthetic identity fraud isn't just a neat trick Stephen King invented for double-crossing your prison warden — it's a growing problem in the world of cybersecurity and identity theft, and one that is only getting bigger now that deepfakes and other artificial intelligence-driven technology have become better and more widely available over the last six months or so.Whereas traditional identity fraud is kind of a smash-and-grab operation — fraudsters take stolen information and try to use it to buy as much as they can before the identity's owner notices — synthetic fraud is a longer game. Using a combination of legitimate and fabricated personal information, fraudsters create a new persona — one who can't alert authorities that their identity has been stolen, because they don't exist. The cornerstone of a synthetic identity is a Social Security number, which is easy enough to steal. But the SSNs best suited to synthetic identity fraud belong to those least likely to notice some funny business on their credit report — most often children, the elderly or those serving prison time. As I said before, this isn't a new problem, though it has to date been less widespread than traditional identity theft. But the things that make synthetic fraud easier to detect — pictures or videos, for example — are becoming easier to bypass thanks to AI. Indeed, Russian hacking group Cl0p (or "clop") has been changing its tactics away from ransomware and other methods toward synthetic fraud precisely because this scam can be so hard to detect. That has serious implications for banks, but it also has serious implications for government agencies that disburse public benefits. One estimate suggests that a single synthetic identity can yield a hacker around $2 million worth of government benefits alone.
Nine British banks sign up to new AI tool for tackling scams --Mastercard is selling a new artificial intelligence-powered tool that helps banks more effectively spot if their customers are trying to send money to fraudsters. Nine of the U.K.'s biggest banks, including Lloyds Banking Group, Natwest Group and Bank of Scotland, have signed up to use the Consumer Fraud Risk system, Mastercard told Bloomberg News. Trained on years of transaction data, the tool helps to predict whether someone is trying to transfer funds to an account affiliated with "authorized push payment scams." This type of fraud involves tricking a victim into moving money into an account falsely posing as a legitimate payee, such as a family member, friend or a business. The tool comes as U.K. banks prepare for new rules from the Payment Systems Regulator that will require them to compensate customers affected by APP scams. Historically banks haven't been liable for this type of fraud, although some signed a voluntary agreement to pay back victims. Ajay Bhalla, president of cyber and intelligence at Mastercard, described APP scams as a "huge problem" that banks have historically struggled to detect because victims' accounts aren't compromised. Clients voluntarily make the transfer and so pass many of the security checks used to identify other types of fraud, such as unauthorized payments, he said. In the U.K., victims of APP scams lost £484.2 million ($616 million) in 2022, according to research by the banking industry association UK Finance. Losses to APP fraud across the U.S. and U.K. are expected to hit $5.25 billion by 2026, according to a report by ACI Worldwide and GlobalData. TSB Banking Group, the first bank to implement the system four months ago, has seen a 20% increase in detection of this type of fraud, which the bank's Head of Fraud Paul Davis said was one of the biggest improvements of any individual fraud prevention project he's worked on. TSB estimates it could save the U.K.'s banks about £100 million per year if the tool was rolled out across the industry.
How Scammers Use Psychology to Create Some of the Most Convincing Internet Cons -- Online fraud is today’s most common crime. Victims are often told they are foolish for falling for it, but fraudsters use psychological mechanisms to infiltrate the defences of their targets, regardless of how intelligent they are.In our work as fraud psychology researchers we have noticed a trend towards hybrid scams, which combine different types of fraud. Hybrid scams often involve crypto investments and sometimes use trafficked labour In the US alone, the FBI recently reported that people lost US $3.3 billion (£2.6 billion) in 2023 to investment fraud. Pig butchering is a long-term deception. This type of scam combines elements of romance scams with an investment con. The name comes from the strategy of “fattening up” a victim with affection before slaughter.It will usually begin with standard scam approach like a text, social media message, or an introduction at a job board site.Victims may have their guard up at first. However, these scams can unfold over months, with the scammer slowly gaining the victims’ trust and initiating a romantic relationship all the while learning about their vulnerabilities.For example, details of their financial situation, job stresses, and dreams about the life they want. Romance scammers often saturate their targets with affection and almost constant contact. Pig butchering sometimes involves several trafficked people working as a team to create a single persona.Once the victim depends on the scammer for their emotional connection, the scammer introduces the idea of making an investment and uses fake crypto platforms to demonstrate returns. The scammers may use legitimate sounding cryptocoins and platforms. Victims can invest and “see” strong returns online. In reality, their money is going directly to the scammer.Once a victim transfers a substantial amount of money to the con artist, they are less likely to pull out. This phenomenon is known as the “sunk cost fallacy”. Research has shown people are likely to carry on investing money, time and effort in activities they have already invested in and ignore signs the endeavour isn’t in their best interests.When the victim runs out of money or tries to withdraw funds, they are blocked.The victim is left with not only financial devastation, but also the loss of what they may imagine to be their most intimate partnership. They are often too embarrassed to discuss the experience with friends and family or to report to the police.
The crypto scam that wasn’t: 2 teens reportedly stole $4.2 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Police say it never happened | Fortune Crypto -It seemed like a perfectly believable story: Two teenagers in Canada posed as members of Coinbase’s support team and scammed an American man out of $4.2 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum.After seeing an email with a news release about the supposed arrest of the teenagers, a reporter from the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. (CBC), one of Canada’s leading news outlets, ran the since-deleted story, according to a member of the Hamilton Police Service familiar with the matter. (However, whether that email was the ultimate source for the story has yet to be determined.) The police in Hamilton, a city near the border of New York, reportedly teamed up with the FBI and the U.S. Secret Service Electronic Crimes Task Force to pin down the two 17-year-olds, who went by the aliases “Felon” and “Gaze.”News of the arrest of the teenagers, who, according to reports, used some of their $4.2 million in stolen crypto to buy coveted username @zombie onInstagram, then spread across a number of crypto publications. However, the entire story—from the teenagers’ alleged heist to their arrest—is a sham, according to the Hamilton Police Service.“[We] can confirm this investigation did not occur and the email did not originate from the Hamilton Police Service,” the police said in an official statement. The FBI did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The CBC has since removed its original story, and its URL now redirects to a new piece describing how its reporter received a hoax email.“Coinbase has extensive security resources dedicated to educating customers about preventing phishing attacks and scams,” a spokesperson for the exchange said in a statement. “We work with international law enforcement to ensure that anyone scamming Coinbase customers is prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”While several publications were duped into running a lurid story of yet another crypto arrest, the theft as described would not have been the first of its kind.In January 2018, in the village of Irvington, N.Y., 15-year-old Ellis Pinsky, nicknamed “Baby Al Capone,” allegedly stole almost $24 million from crypto millionaire Michael Terpin. Pinsky agreed to pay back Terpin without admitting any guilt.And the Hamilton Police Service itself has investigated and arrested a teenager for stealing almost $35 million in crypto through a SIM swap attack, or when scammers port a victim’s phone number over to their devices to bypass two-factor authentication.
Michael Kives seen with Bill Clinton amid FTX's $700M suit - Michael Kives, the ex-aide to Hillary Clinton-turned-Hollywood super-agent, seemed unbothered by FTX’s $700 million lawsuit against his firm while hanging out in London with former President Bill Clinton. In photos exclusively obtained by The Post, Kives was pictured Monday exchanging some laughs with his former boss during a stroll through the capital’s streets. The pair were dressed casually in jeans and light jackets and trailed by a small entourage during the London walkabout — which took place on the eve of Clinton’s trip to Albania.The former president received a medal for his role in ending the Kosovo War in the late 1990s.Clinton, 76, was overheard talking about the war in Iraq with Kives, who served as an aide to Bill Clinton and also Hillary Clinton during her stint as a US senator.He later became a Hollywood agent with well-known clients including Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bruce Willis and Katy Perry.The major Democratic donor is the co-founder and managing partner of investment firm K5 Global, which was sued last month by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX.The complaint said Kives’s firm received a whopping $700 million in misappropriated assets from FTX and its disgraced founder Sam Bankman-Fried in 2022, just months before his empire collapsed.Bankman-Fried purportedly referred to Kives as “probably, the most connected person I’ve ever met” and “a one-stop shop” for important connections in politics and Hollywood.The complaint alleged that Bankman-Fried lavished K5 Global and its co-founders, Kives and Bryan Baum, with cash as part of his bid to gain political influence and celebrity clout.Bankman-Fried approved investments in deals that benefitted K5 Global using FTX customer funds, though they provided no benefit to the platform or its customers, according to the complaint.
FTX customers who lost all their money when the exchange collapsed should blame the SEC, Mark Cuban says = Mark Cuban blames the Securities and Exchange Commission for FTX customers losing all their money when the exchange collapsed in November. The billionaire investor weighed in on the digital asset space Monday via a lengthy tweet slamming the US financial watchdog. "Of course they chose to litigate to regulate," Cuban said. "It's the SEC that chose the wrong path to regulate crypto and cost billions," he added. "The SEC is not infallible." "It makes mistakes. In this case it chose the wrong course. It was arrogant in thinking that its framework covered every possible situation." FTX filed for bankruptcy in November after a bombshell report sparked a run on its deposits, with its collapse wiping out billions of dollars worth of customers' money. US regulators have responded by clamping down on other exchanges, with the SEC suing both Binance and Coinbase last month. But even before Sam Bankman-Fried's exchange failed, the regulator was wrong to have used legal action to police the exchanges and should have instead focused on helping them to follow the rules, Cuban said. The "Shark Tank" star and Dallas Mavericks owner unfavorably compared the US to Japan – where exchanges are required to register with autorities and separate customers' funds from their own accounts. "When FTX crashed, no one in FTX Japan lost money," Cuban wrote. "If the USA/SEC had followed their example by setting clear regulations that required the separation of customer and business funds and clear wallet requirements, no one here would have lost money on FTX," he added.
'Just a kid from Wyoming': Caitlin Long fights for regulated crypto Caitlin Long didn't expect a long, heated legal battle with federal regulators when she launched Custodia Bank, a crypto-focused institution that she thinks can build a bridge between traditional finance and digital assets. But what started as a passion project has turned Long into a torchbearer for the federal regulation of digital assets. The two-decade Wall Street veteran moved back to her native Wyoming in 2016, where she's worked to expand digital-asset legislation and design Custodia to offer banking, payments services and custody for crypto. Long said crypto services should be separated from traditional financial institutions, especially global systemically important banks, to prevent turbulence in the digital-asset industry from bringing down banks with it, or vice versa. "The whole concept of online banking, much less digital assets that move at the speed of light, has massively changed risk management for the banking industry," Long said. "This has to be bridged very carefully for that reason, so that digital assets don't trigger bank runs in the traditional banking system." Long's original vision for Cheyenne-based Custodia was to be a "new breed of banker's bank" that provided technology to traditional community banks. Banking is highly regulated and notoriously slow to innovate. Long sees two ways to push change — by either creating new technology or designing regulatory solutions that operate within the existing framework. More than four years after Custodia's original conception, Long has built a 35-person team to forge the institution's technology and helped develop digital-asset legislation in Wyoming, including a new framework for banks. For her work pushing crypto custody technology and governance, Long is one of American Banker's 2023 Innovators of the Year. Marcel Kasumovich, deputy chief investment officer of Coinbase Asset Management and an investor in Custodia, said he thinks Long is "one in a million" in terms of knowledge, courage and resilience. "Her ability to mesh the traditional system with what could be the new system, and her patience and willingness to do that through the regulatory mainstream, I think is just remarkable," Kasumovich said. "Has it played out the way she had hoped? The way I would have hoped? Absolutely not." Custodia is limited in its banking powers, and the bank is embroiled in a legal tug of war with the Federal Reserve. Long said it was always clear Custodia wouldn't be eligible for Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. membership, so the bank needed a different path to federal compliance.
Regulators weigh impact of new capital rules on banks and nonbanks alike --With new, proposed capital rules set to debut this summer, some in and around the banking sector worry that stringent requirements could inadvertently make the financial system less safe.The key issue for certain policymakers and analysts is whether heightened regulatory standards will push more lending activity away from banks and toward less-regulated entities, such as insurance companies, debt funds and other alternative capital sources."Rising bank capital requirements may exacerbate the competitive dynamics that result in advantages to nonbank competitors and push additional financial activity out of the regulated banking system," Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said in a speech Sunday. "This shift, while possibly leaving a stronger and more resilient banking system, could create a financial system in which banks simply can't compete in a cost-effective manner."Regulators are poised to unveil a string of regulatory initiatives in the coming weeks and months, including a proposal for the final implementation of the Basel III international standards, which will be focused on risk modeling approaches for the largest banks. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is also conducting a "holistic capital review" aimed at assessing the interaction between various standards as well as the capitalization of the banking system as a whole. And, at some point, regulators expect to introduce reforms aimed at addressing supervisory issues exposed by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year — those changes will center on banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets.If regulatory changes play out as expected, large banks could face higher capital charges for certain operational risks related to activities such as securities brokerage and investment advisory. Other expenses, like a requirement to purchase long-term debt — an obligation currently faced by the largest banks that could be extended to all banks above the $100 billion threshold — could increase the cost of doing business across the board.
Banks are frustrated with the Fed's stress testing, but it's not getting easier In what has become an annual tradition, banks and their advocates are crying foul over the Federal Reserve's stress testing regime. Bank of America and Citi have both questioned their results on this year's stress test, citing discrepancies between the Fed's findings and their own internal projections. As a result, industry groups, including the Bank Policy Institute, have called for greater transparency in the process, which plays a key role in establishing capital requirements for the country's largest banks.Stress testing has become a regular point of contention in the bank regulatory environment. Consumer advocates say the scenarios are not stressful enough, while banks and their allies say the practice unfairly subjects them to additional capital obligations."The annual stress test is no longer a test that banks 'pass' or 'fail,'" Francisco Covas, head of research at BPI, said in a statement. "It no longer functions as a traditional supervisory exercise like the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program during the global financial crisis. Instead, since 2020, the hypothetical losses calculated for each bank are transformed into a capital charge that is added to each bank's minimum capital requirements."This year's clash comes as the Fed conducts a "holistic review" of the full gamut of capital rules. In theory, that process could provide an opening for long-sought reform. But commentary from regulatory officials suggests regulatory burdens only stand to increase, at least for certain banks."It looks to me like capital requirements are, in fact, going to go up," David Zaring, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, said. "I'm focused on how they are going to be extended to the midsize banks."Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has said capital levels could stand to be increased throughout the banking system and he has called for changes to the regulatory framework for banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets in the wake of large regional bank failures this spring. He has not specified how stress tests would factor into his review of capital or the final implementation of the Basel III international framework.Within the so-called Basel III endgame, the only potential change to stress testing is how frequently banks are subjected to it, said Chen Xu, a lawyer with the firm Debevoise & Plimpton. Currently, banks with more than $250 billion of assets must go through scenario testing every year. The results of these examinations dictate the stress capital buffers applied to each participating bank and determine how much of a dividend they can pay to investors. Banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion are typically tested on a two-year cycle. Previously, these different regimes were referred to as advanced and standardized approaches, respectively, but those terms have largely been abandoned since regulatory tailoring standards were amended by law in 2018.Xu said he anticipates the yearly testing to expand to more banks in the $100 billion to $250 billion asset range.
Bank of America says it started talks with Fed after stress-test results -Bank of America has started discussions with the Federal Reserve after the central bank's annual stress tests projected more favorable results than the lender is forecasting.Bank of America is in dialogue with the Fed to "understand differences in other comprehensive income over the nine-quarter stress period between the Federal Reserve's [Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review] results and Bank of America's Dodd-Frank Act stress test results," the company said in a statement Monday.The discussions with the Fed are meant to resolve discrepancies so that Bank of America can move ahead with its dividend plans. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group led U,S. banks in announcing higher dividends last week after every lender subject to the Fed stress tests passed the exam. Bank of America didn't disclose such moves. In one example of the discrepancy, the Fed projected that Bank of America will post $22.3 billion in accumulated other comprehensive income over a nine-quarter period under a hypothetical set of adverse economic conditions. Bank of America, however, projects $12.5 billion for that metric during the period which began in the first quarter of this year. The Fed also expects Bank of America to record a $23 billion pretax loss during that time frame while the company forecasts an approximate $52 billion cumulative pretax loss."In short, BAC's internal test seems to imply much less capital benefit from AOCI included in capital than did the Fed's," Piper Sandler analysts led by R. Scott Siefers wrote in a note. Still, even eliminating that benefit could keep the bank below the 2.5% minimum stress capital buffer threshold, they wrote. "But we await some clarity before BAC makes any capital announcements," they said.
Bank of America, Citi are in talks with Fed after stress-test results - Two of Wall Street's largest lenders are questioning the Federal Reserve's projections for their future income, the latest sign of tension around the central bank's annual stress tests. Bank of America and Citigroup said Monday that they are in discussions with the central bank after their own estimates differed from those of the Fed. The results of the yearly exams and projections are closely watched because they are a key factor in determining how much banks can return to investors in payouts. The results released last week showed that the biggest 23 U.S. firms can withstand a severe global recession and turmoil in real estate markets. Although that's broadly a positive sign for the industry, the tests remain a flash point. Some advocates argue the exams need to be much tougher, while industry groups are girding to fight a looming overhaul. Since taking over as the Fed's top bank watchdog last year, Michael Barr, the vice chair for supervision, has said the central bank is considering changes that will assess more types of financial stress as part of a broad look at lenders' capital requirements. He has said that the changes will seek to address issues raised by the recent bank failures. Monday's questions from two of the biggest U.S. lenders about the Fed's projections adds another wrinkle. Bank of America said in a statement that it was talking to the Fed to "understand differences in other comprehensive income over the 9-quarter stress period." Separately, Citi said it was looking to "understand differences in non-interest income." In BofA's case, the Fed's projection was rosier. For some of Citi's forecasts, it was the opposite.A spokesman for the Fed declined to comment.Last week, Citi announced it would raise its dividend to 53 cents from 51. Unlike most of its major rivals, Citigroup will face a higher stress capital buffer in the coming quarters, the firm said. Bank of America has yet to announce its dividend plans. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group led U.S. banks in announcing higher dividends last week.
BofA raises payout 9% after passing Fed's annual stress test -Bank of America has joined rivals in raising its quarterly dividend after the Federal Reserve announced last week that the Wall Street giant passed the regulator's annual stress test.The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said this week that it initiated a dialog with the Fed to understand differences between the central bank's assessment and its own stress tests. Even so, the bank plans to increase its quarterly dividend to 24 cents a share from 22 cents, according to a statement Wednesday. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group all announced higher dividends after every lender subject to this year's Fed stress tests passed the exam. In typical years, clearing the exam sets the stage for banks to return billions of dollars to investors through dividends and stock buybacks. BofA's higher dividend would start in the third quarter, subject to approval by the board of directors. At current prices, the stock would yield 3.3% annually. The shares closed at $29.08 on Wednesday, leaving them with a negative total return this year of 11% including dividends. In late trading after the announcement, BofA rose 10 cents a share.
Large Banks Have Bled $921 Billion in Deposits Since April 2022 — the Fastest Pace in 40 Years — and a Much Larger Decline than Small Banks - By Pam and Russ Martens -You may recall reading a burst of headlines during the banking crisis in March of this year about depositors fleeing small banks for the perceived comfort of the largest banks. Unfortunately, those headlines were never put in context or updated to reflect a broader picture.In fact, using deposit data that is updated weekly from the Federal Reserve’s own H.8 releases, it becomes crystal clear that the large banks are bleeding deposits at the fastest pace in 40 years.As the Federal Reserve data in the chart above indicates, deposits at the largest 25 commercial banks in the U.S. peaked at $11,679,758,700,000 on April 13, 2022. The most recent H.8 release shows that the deposits of the 25 largest banks as of June 21 stood at $10,758,977,000,000. That’s a percentage decline of 7.88 percent or $920,781,700.The Fed’s H.8 data defines small domestically-chartered banks as all other commercial banks outside of the 25 largest. As of March 31, that would be 4,071 “small” banks, although more than two dozen of those had between $40 billion to $150 billion in consolidated assets as of March 31.Deposits at the smaller banks didn’t peak until December 14, 2022, reaching $5,413,667,700,000. The most current reading on June 21 was $5,170,296,000,000, a decline of 4.5 percent from the peak versus the 7.88 percent decline at the 25 largest banks. In actual dollar terms, those 4,071 banks shed just $243.37 billion versus the $920.78 billion at the 25 largest banks.It should be noted that the Fed’s initial H.8 weekly releases are static. That data is not updated at the H.8 web page, whereas the St. Louis Fed’s FRED H.8 data is updated for charting purposes. We used non-seasonally adjusted numbers, which we feel are more reliable given the unprecedented nature of this year’s banking crisis where three of the four largest banking failures in U.S. history have occurred.To make your own charts, you will find the Fed’s updated large commercial bank deposit data here and the small commercial bank deposit data here. (Place your cursor on the various points of the chart for a date and dollar level reading.)One of the most striking examples of distorted reporting on deposits by the financial press came on April 28 when a Bloomberg column by John Authers was syndicated to the Washington Post. Authers included this misleading narrative about the four largest U.S. banks: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup’s Citibank.“This summary from the Canadian firm Palos Management explains neatly why the bigger banks are still OK: “The first quarter’s performance of the big four was consistent with a broad consensus that the big banks have capitalized on massive depositor inflows, clearly related to the well-documented liquidity stresses facing their smaller, regionally based brethren. This should come as no surprise. The panic-fueled depositor exodus from the smaller banks to the larger ‘too big to fail’ banks is simply a rational decision. Protection of capital rules.”
Philadelphia Fed brings enforcement action against Quontic Bank -A small New York bank that previously ran afoul of risk-management requirements has agreed not to distribute capital without the permission of its regulators. The holding company for Queens, New York-based Quontic Bank on Wednesday entered into a written agreement with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Under the enforcement action, Quontic Bank Holdings Corp. pledged not to pay dividends, repurchase shares or make any other capital distributions without the Philadelphia Fed's prior written approval. The holding company also agreed to provide its regulator with a cash-flow projection for the rest of 2023, and to submit a written plan for maintaining sufficient capital to provide financial support for Quontic Bank. Also party to the written agreement with the Philadelphia Fed is Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., which owns and controls Quontic Bank Holdings Corp. Steven Schnall, the founder and onetime CEO of Quontic Bank, died last summer in a motorcycle accident. After Schnall passed away, his ownership stake passed to his wife, Sherri Schnall, according to the bank. Under Schnall's leadership, Quontic developed a reputation as a tech-focused bank. It was the first U.S. bank to offer a debit card with bitcoin rewards and one of the first financial institutions to experiment with the metaverse. "Since Steve's passing, we have made some significant hires with substantial industry experience to ensure our mission remains intact," Robert Russell, Quontic Bank's president, said in an email Thursday.
FDIC examiners may need higher pay, freer voice to bolster supervision — One takeaway from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s post-mortem on Signature Bank's failure this spring was that more than one of the agency's satellite offices — including the New York regional office that supervised Signature — had persistent staffing shortages up until the bank collapsed. However, these challenges were not new. The New York office had repeatedly raised staffing concerns to the regulator's Risk Management Supervision division as early as 2020, and these concerns persisted for years, according to the FDIC's post-failure report, which was issued in April. A number of factors hindered the New York office's ability to staff-up, the agency said. Those include the high cost of living in the New York metro area, the COVID-19 pandemic as well as competition from other regulators and private firms that can offer more competitive wages and benefits. The agency increased employee pay and bonus incentives in 2022. Yet, experts and officials agree, this year's turmoil may necessitate further changes to fill vacancies on teams that supervise large financial institutions. In order for the agency to attract talent, the FDIC will have to raise wages, which banks would be required to pay for in the form of higher assessment fees, said Mayra Rodríguez Valladares, Managing Principal at MRV Associates. "I think that there has to be more pay, and with the FDIC, that means you've got to raise the [deposit insurance] premium from the banks so that you can pay more, so you can attract caliber," she said. Valladares said while most prospective examiners consider far more factors than just pay when accepting a position, the different rates each agency pays affect turnover. Younger employees with less experience are more prone to leave for a higher wage, she said, especially since the pandemic. After all, junior analysts and examiners at the FDIC can earn less than $100,000 annually, short of what is paid in the private sector, or even at other regulatory agencies. "Typically, the Fed is known to pay more than the OCC and then the FDIC, but there's other things than pay," she said. "People who are younger — let's say they've only been there two, three years — and now [in] a situation post COVID, where there's such demand [for labor], those are the people that tend to be more likely to jump, and go where there's higher pay." An FDIC spokesperson declined to comment at this time on its staffing efforts underway to address the many issues raised by the report.
Supreme Court could limit enforcement powers of U.S. banking agencies - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case that could limit the enforcement powers of federal banking regulators, forcing agencies to go to court in situations that would otherwise be handled through administrative processes. The specific lawsuit involves the Securities and Exchange Commission, but it has big implications for a broad range of U.S. regulators. In the banking realm, those agencies include the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Some legal observers say that the justices — who agreed to take the case Friday — are likely to uphold a ruling by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The appeals court sided with a hedge-fund founder who challenged the SEC's authority to bring an enforcement case through the administrative law system. In 2018, the nation's highest court ruled against the SEC in a separate case involving the agency's use of administrative law judges, finding that the judges needed to be appointed by the commission itself, rather than by SEC staffers. "The conservative wing of the Court has shown that they don't like the so-called administrative state. They don't like the federal administrative agencies exercising so much power that they believe belongs to the Congress or to the judiciary," said Alan Kaplinsky, senior counsel at Ballard Spahr. Federal banking regulators may choose to go straight to court when they are unable to reach settlements in enforcement cases, but they also have the option of bringing civil charges before administrative law judges, who may have specific expertise that U.S. District Court judges lack. The decisions made by those administrative law judges are subject to approval by the head of the agency that brought the charges. In one case involving a mortgage firm, then-CFPB Director Richad Cordray issued a larger fine than an administrative law judge had recommended, though that decision was eventually overturned by a federal appeals court.. Even though defendants can appeal the decisions that emerge from administrative law proceedings, their lawyers have long argued that the use of in-house judges gives an unfair home-field advantage to bank regulators. SEC to release new rules for $5.5 trillion money-market industry - The Securities and Exchange Commission is set to impose a slate of new rules on money-market mutual funds, setting up a potential clash with titans in the $5.5 trillion industry. Wall Street's main regulator plans to hold a meeting on July 12 to finalize the changes, which are meant to prevent the kind of outflows that occurred in March 2020 when the onset of the pandemic roiled markets. That turmoil prompted the Federal Reserve to intervene and rescue money-market funds for the second time in 12 years, spurring calls for the SEC to impose tougher regulations. When it was introduced in December 2021, the SEC's plan drew an immediate rebuke from industry. The proposal, which could differ from the final rules to be unveiled next week, would have imposed swing pricing requirements that critics said could make funds more costly and less attractive. Money-market participants have been bracing for the regulations. As part of its administrative process, the SEC takes into account comments that it receives on proposals before holding a vote to finalize its rules, like the one scheduled for next Wednesday. If adopted as proposed in December 2021, the new rules would:
- Increase the percentage of total assets that funds must maintain in cash or other assets that can be liquidated quickly — to 25% for overnight liquidity and 50% for weekly liquidity
- Remove funds' ability to charge fees for redemptions or temporarily restrict them if liquid assets fall below certain thresholds
- Require that institutional prime and tax-exempt funds use a swing pricing mechanism that the agency says forces redeeming shareholders to bear costs of pulling out money
- Require that government funds convert to a floating net asset value in the event interest rates turn negative
CFPB report shows late fees are not a top complaint — for a reason --Consumers are not complaining much about credit card late fees, but that could change dramatically if a proposal by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau goes into effect.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra is staking his tenure at the agency on a radical plan to wipe out $9 billion a year in consumer costs by cutting credit card late fees to just $8, down from the current first-time maximum of $30. Late fees have become a focal point for Chopra, who hascalled out banks and credit card issuers for turning late fees into a profit center. He also has seized on the CFPB's authority to increase late fees in line with inflation as an opportunity to reexamine and change existing rules around assessing credit card penalties. Yet the CFPB's proposal to slash credit card late fees does not appear to be driven by consumer complaints, according to the bureau's own data. Late fees were mentioned just once in a 76-page report that the CFPB released in March detailing the issues around the 1.3 million consumer complaints the agency received last year. Consumers were far more likely to complain about credit reports, debt collection, the opening of checking accounts or fraud than they were about late fees, the CFPB report shows. While the CFPB has long claimed that it uses consumer complaints to inform its work, experts say that one aspect of credit card late fees has not been taken into account in the bureau's proposal: Banks and credit card issuers often forgive at least one late fee a year for consumers who call and ask for leniency. "We do know there is forgiveness, and in many cases banks are giving up the revenue from the first late fee, and therefore most of the complaints are not hitting the CFPB because the consumer calls their bank first," said Marcia Tal, CEO of Tal Solutions, a New York data analytics firm, and founder of PositivityTech, a platform that allows companies to analyze consumer complaints sent to the CFPB. "Most people have already learned that if they ask for forgiveness, [the card issuer] will get a late fee removed, and I don't think the CFPB is giving credit to banks for having that policy in place. It's a good thing that banks do that."
BankThink; Earned wage access programs are an alternative to predatory loans | American Banker -- Skyrocketing cost of living and persistent inflation have made buying groceries and paying bills on time a near impossible feat for many Americans. While how much workers are paid is critical, so is when they are paid — and many employers have adopted a new payroll innovation called earned wage access (EWA) to help millions of Americans access their own earned wages prior to payday. This is a game-changer for many working people and their families.In recent months, two states have taken starkly different approaches toward regulating EWA. On the one hand, the Nevada legislature in June codified sensible consumer protections while allowing EWA to thrive as a viable lower-cost alternative to payday loans and bank overdraft fees. On the other hand, California's financial regulator, the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI), proposed a rule in March that would treat EWA products as loans. Such treatment would all but eliminate EWA as a low-cost option for consumers in that state and should not be adopted in California or anywhere else.EWA allows consumers to access their wages on-demand, outside of the traditional weekly, bi-weekly or monthly pay cycles. The consumer often pays a small fee to use the EWA service or to access funds immediately. Many leading providers offer multiple free ways to access earned wages. In virtually all cases, these fees are much lower than predatory payday loan charges or bank overdraft fees, and are typically less than an ATM fee. EWA products are nonrecourse — which means consumers have no obligation to repay the EWA if their paycheck deduction fails. Nor does EWA involve debt collection, credit reporting, interest charges or late fees. EWA provides a much safer and more affordable alternative for working families who need money immediately to help with emergencies and other financial stresses.By treating EWA as a loan, the DFPI's proposed regulations would all but force providers to charge higher fees and interest than they do today and cause them to pursue debt collection. If these regulations are adopted, California would be the only state in the country to treat EWA as a loan. So far, every regulator to consider EWA — including those in Nevada, Arizona, Kansas, at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the U.S. Department of Treasury — has reached the same conclusion that a no-interest and nonrecourse EWA product is not a consumer loan. Not only has no federal or state regulator determined EWA is a loan, but this was also the consensus reached by the California Legislature nearly four years ago. In May 2019, the legislature, on a bipartisan basis, concluded that EWA was not credit when SB 472, the first EWA bill introduced in a statehouse, was debated and unanimously supported in the Senate (although not actually adopted).By treating EWA as if it were a predatory lending product, the DFPI is imposing unnecessary financial and regulatory burdens on EWA providers. The cost of doing business in California will go up. Prices will go up. Access will be curtailed and Californians, in effect, will be forced to resort to high-priced payday loans or hefty bank overdraft fees. They will also face collections and negative credit reporting if they do not repay on time.
FHFA rule change could expand number of suspended counterparties -The Federal Housing Finance Administration is looking to make it easier to put entities and people into its Suspended Counterparty Program, a proposed rule change states.This would require Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks to report to the FHFA any individual or company they do business with that committed "certain forms of misconduct" in the past three years. The current program was established by FHFA letter in June 2012 and amended in December 2015.Today, the SCP list is limited to those that have committed and are convicted of criminal offenses. "However, in FHFA's experience of administering the SCP, it has determined that this standard is too narrow; specifically, it does not authorize suspension of counterparties that have been found to have committed various forms of misconduct in the context of civil enforcement actions," the proposed amendment to the rule said.It is looking to broadly expand the definition of misconduct "to all manner of civil enforcement proceedings," including cases before administrative law judges, as well as qui tam actions (also known as whistleblower cases) such as those brought under the False Claims Act.While many of those civil cases are settled without an admission of misconduct, the proposal noted, the change could allow the FHFA to put those entities on the SCP list. "FHFA has determined that it is appropriate to permit suspension where enforcement claims are resolved without admission of misconduct," the proposal said.For example, in the most recent qui tam settlement involving Movement Mortgage, the company specifically did not admit any legal liability for the False Claims Act violations. Other changes would allow for placement on the SCP for criminal or civil misconduct in connection with the management or ownership of real property.
CRE Nightmare for CMBS Holders: Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Has Biggest Six-Month Spike Ever. It’s just the Beginning - by Wolf Richter - After blowing through the pandemic with no more than a squiggle, the delinquency rate of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) backed by office properties jumped to 4.5% by loan balance in June, up from 1.6% just six months ago in December 2022, according to Trepp, which tracks and analyses CMBS.Office mortgages that had been packaged into CMBS went through a horrendous default cycle following the Financial Crisis, with the delinquency rate topping out at over 10% in 2012/2013. But this current six-month 2.9-percentage-point spike from 1.6% to 4.5% is the fastest six-month spike in Trepp’s data going back to 2000. So this is going to be interesting because we’re just at the beginning of a massive structural change – not a temporary blip – that is impacting office towers; turns out, companies have figured out they won’t ever need this vast amount of vacant office space. Trepp considers a loan “delinquent” after the penalty-free 30-day grace period ends and the borrower still hasn’t caught up with the interest payment. This delinquency rate does not include properties that are still paying interest but are past due on paying off the mortgage on maturity date. This includes the interest-only mortgages, when the whole amount is due at maturity, and mortgages with a balloon payment at maturity. As long as landlords are making interest payments, Trepp doesn’t consider the mortgages delinquent, but tracks mortgages that are past their maturity date separately. For example, Trepp’s overall delinquency rate for all types of CMBS rose to 3.90% in June. Including the loans that were past their maturity date but were still paying interest, the delinquency rate would have risen to 4.66%. CMBS have real advantages. They allow lenders, such as banks, to sell high-risk commercial mortgages during times of low interest rates to yield-chasing investors, such as bond funds, life insurers, etc. For banks, these mortgages might be too risky to keep on their books. So they package them, sometimes just one big mortgage, but often several or many mortgages, into a pool of mortgages that then gets structured into different slices that investors buy, with the junk-rated slices taking the first losses in return for slightly higher yields. The top-rated slices have an A-rating or AA-rating, solidly investment grade (here’s my cheat sheet on bond credit ratings by rating agency), with the idea that the lowest rated slices will absorb any losses while the top-rated slices remain unscathed.The mortgages – as we have seen in the current wave of defaults, including those where the landlord has just walked away from the property – are often variable-rate. Landlords liked variable-rate mortgages because they offer a lower interest rate, compared to fixed rate mortgages. And investors liked them because when rates go up, investors get a higher return, and the market value of the mortgage is largely protected.But when rates go up a lot, as they have done since March 2022, the interest payments go up a lot, and by late last year, these interest payments began to double, and suddenly the building doesn’t pencil out anymore because rents, especially at office towers that are partially vacant, won’t cover the interest payments.And then landlords might walk away and lose the equity. And CMBS holders end up with a defaulted mortgage and an office tower whose price at a sale will be far below the loan value. We have discussed the revenge of variable-rate office mortgages here.And so even landlords – giant landlords such as private equity firm Blackstone and private equity firm Brookfield – have defaulted on the mortgages and then walked away from the property. They lose the equity in the property, and the lenders then have to sell the office tower for whatever they can get.
Move over, office loans. Apartment lending is also feeling the pinch - Loans on office properties have become a top concern for regulators in recent months, but they are not the only assets backed by commercial real estate that could give banks headaches.Commercial real estate loans for apartment buildings — a category known as multifamily housing — carry their own set of risks, market participants and analysts say, because of the way they're financed as well as recent transaction trends. "There are a lot of floating-rate loans out there with one- and two-year hedges on them. Once those hedges burn off, rent growth alone won't be able to offset higher servicing costs," said Peter Merrigan, CEO of the real-estate-focused private equity firm Taurus Investment Holdings. "There's a wave of that coming — a big wave."Floating interest rates are more prevalent among borrowers employing a so-called value-add strategy, in which they aim to sell for a profit within a few years after making basic physical improvements or boosting rental income. These strategies became popular in the multifamily space in recent years as rising household creation and a national housing shortage fostered an appealing supply-demand imbalance for investors."Most of the capital in the space has been invested for the long term, but there are some who wanted to turn the property on a three- to five-year horizon," said Robert Pinnegar, president and chief executive of the National Apartment Association. "For those that were looking for a quick flip that happened to purchase an asset at the beginning of COVID and have ridden through this process, it's gonna be more challenging."With transaction volumes dwindling among higher financing costs and growing economic uncertainty — as well as a disagreement between prospective buyers and sellers on how to revise values accordingly — short-term borrowers are having a hard time selling or recapitalizing assets."The issue that we find ourselves faced with is that as rates go up, it's going to impact floating-rate borrowers the most, and those are the borrowers whose typical exit strategy is to sell the property — but there's no transaction happening on the property sales side," said Matt Reidy, director of CRE economics at Moody's Analytics. "This is where we'll see these borrowers tend to get stuck a little bit."
AnnieMac seeks nearly $500,000 from former branch manager -AnnieMac is suing a former branch manager to recoup an alleged $500,000 signing bonus, its second such federal lawsuit against a former employee in the past two months. Peyton Elizabeth Fullerton, a Denver-based originator, owes $496,136.63 after voluntarily leaving the company in January, AnnieMac alleges in its complaint filed last week. The sum stems from a $500,000 retention bonus Fullerton signed when she joined the company last July as an originating branch manager, and it mandated she stay with the firm for at least 18 months or repay the bonus. Neither AnnieMac, its attorney, nor Fullerton, who is still working for the Denver-based The Mortgage Project, responded to requests for comment last week. A summons for Fullerton in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey was issued June 28.The lawsuit includes an alleged copy of Fullerton's electronically signed retention bonus, which said she would receive the sum across her first two paychecks last July. Sections describing Fullerton's salary and compensation in basis points per volume threshold are redacted. Fullerton had $3,863.37 deducted from her final paycheck in January to cover the retention bonus, the complaint said. The employment agreement also requires Fullerton to pay for costs of litigation and to consent to litigation in a New Jersey state or federal court. AnnieMac earlier this month voluntarily dismissed a similar suit against former Pennsylvania-based branch manager Nicholas Roberto DeJesus, who allegedly owed the firm $102,133.01 after his departure. DeJesus, according to the complaint, received a $144,000 retention bonus when he joined in October 2021 but quit last October, falling just short of his agreement's 12-month stipulation to keep the bonus. The lender allegedly deducted $41,867 from DeJesus' final paycheck, and the former branch manager refused to repay the rest. AnnieMac's voluntary dismissal of the suit June 1 didn't say whether the sides had reached any agreement.The company is also facing a discrimination complaint from a former Florida-based mortgage closer, who alleged disparate treatment of Black workers during her employment, and AnnieMac has yet to respond to a summons in that case. The Mount Laurel, New Jersey-based firm originated over $731 million in mortgage volume between January and April this year and over $4 billion in mortgage volume last year, according to data from analytics firm S&P Global. AnnieMac counts 450 mortgage loan originators according to Nationwide Multistate Licensing System records, and in March itacquired in-state competitor Family First Funding. The lawsuits over retention bonuses resemble an action by megalender CrossCountry Mortgage, which is also suing at least one former employee to recoup an alleged five-figure sign-on bonus. That case remains pending in an Ohio federal court.
US Treasury says COVID anti-foreclosure payments reach $3.7 billion (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Friday that state programs using its COVID-19 Homeowner Assistance Fund distributed $1.2 billion in aid to homeowners in the first quarter of this year, bringing the program's total payments to $3.7 billion so far.Payments from the $10 billion program, launched as part of President Joe Biden's pandemic-related 2021 American Rescue Plan Act, have reached more than 318,000 households at risk of foreclosure, the department said.The program has benefited a higher proportion of economically vulnerable and traditionally underserved homeowners than previous federal mortgage aid efforts, it added. Nearly half of the assistance has reached "very low-income homeowners" earning less than 50% of their area's median income, according to the Treasury data."The Homeowner Assistance Fund has helped keep hundreds of thousands of families in their homes," Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said. "As state programs assess their remaining HAF funds, the Treasury Department will continue working with recipients to ensure these funds are swiftly delivered to homeowners most in need."The data showed that 35% of the homeowners who received aid self-identified as Black, 23% as Hispanic/Latino and 59% as female.The program was designed to ramp up after COVID foreclosure moratoriums had expired and mortgage forbearance programs had wound down by early 2022.It was spared from COVID aid funding clawbacks in last month's bipartisan deal to raise the federal debt ceiling because the funds already had been transferred to state programs that process applications from homeowners suffering hardships. Like other COVID-related aid programs, any remaining resources in Homeowner Assistance Fund expire on Sept. 30, 2025.
‘Unacceptably high’: The Fed plans to keep hiking rates — but with the typical home selling for just $4K less than 2022's all-time high, don't expect a big housing correction to follow - Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday show the Fed feels the country’s inflation rate remains “unacceptably high.”While the central bank chose to hold the federal funds rate at 5.0% to 5.25% in its latest meeting back in June, the recently released minutes reveal the Fed has further rate hikes planned for the year, even if they won’t come as fast and furious as they have so far.If that news, along with sticky inflation, after a long winter of continuously climbing mortgage rates and steadily falling home prices, has you wringing your hands over the future of the housing market, don’t despair yet.Despite the dreary outlook, data shows the market might not be crumbling just yet.In fact, the median U.S. home is selling for around $383,000 — only about $4,000, or 0.9%, less than the all-time high set in June 2022. This marks the smallest year-over-year drop in close to four months, according to Redfin. Here’s what’s keeping prices elevated, and why you shouldn’t worry about a major housing correction in the near future regardless of what the Fed has planned. High mortgage rates may be keeping some buyers at bay, but they’re also deterring plenty of potential sellers who are locked into low rates from just a couple years ago.The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.71% last week, more than double what it averaged in 2021.New listings plunged 27% compared to last year during the four weeks ending June 25 — the largest drop since the start of the pandemic. That’s also pushed the total number of homes for sale down by 11% — the first double-digit decline in over a year.A lack of inventory means that with fewer options for buyers to choose from, they’re snagging homes faster than they’re being listed, which in turn keeps prices afloat.It may not be a proper housing correction, but it’s safe to say buyers and sellers alike are finding the conditions challenging.“The market isn’t nearly as fast as it was 18 months ago, when homes were flying off the market for well over asking price, and it’s not as slow as it was six or seven months ago, when mortgage rates first shot up,” said Oakland, California Redfin Premier agent Andrea Chopp.Trying to follow the trends on a national level can be tricky. The typical property may be going for its asking price, but June was only the second month this has occurred since August 2022. And although sale prices are dropping the most in big metros like Las Vegas and Phoenix, areas like Milwaukee and Miami are seeing a rise.Chopp says buyers should be aware that some desirable homes are attracting several offers and selling above asking.“And sellers should know that their home may not attract as much competition as their neighbor’s home did two years ago, but it will sell if they price it fairly and put effort into marketing,” Chopp adds.
Housing July 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down Year-over-year -Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 30th, inventory was at 466 thousand (7-day average), compared to 460 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 5.1%. And inventory is up 14.9% from the seasonal bottom eleven weeks ago.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.Inventory was down 1.3% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 4.3%), and down 51.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 51.8%). It appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year, but above 2021 levels - and possibly above 2020 levels late in the year. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Housing affordability hits another low: report --Nationwide home affordability declined again in the second quarter of the year as rising prices pushed up the wages necessary to afford a home, according to a new report. Major homeownership expenses last quarter now require about 33 percent of a family’s monthly income, the report from nationwide property data provider ATTOM showed. Homes were less affordable in 98 percent of counties with data to analyze when compared to historical averages. This marks the highest debt-to-income ratio since 2007.Buyers needed to earn $75,000 annually to afford the typical home in half of the markets ATTOM analyzed. After three quarters of declines, the median single-family home value rose 10 percent from the first quarter to $350,000 — the largest increase in more than a decade, the company found. “The U.S. housing market has done an about-face following a downturn that threatened to usher in an extended period of flat or falling prices. With that has come another blow to how much house the average worker around the country can afford,” ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said in a statement. “Whether this is just a temporary blip amid this year’s peak buying season or a sign of another extended price surge is anyone’s guess,” Barber continued. “But any predictions of a market demise were certainly premature, and house hunters are feeling the pinch.”
Construction Spending Increased 0.9% in May --From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:Construction spending during May 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,925.6 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised April estimate of $1,909.0 billion. The May figure is 2.4 percent above the May 2022 estimate of $1,880.9 billion.Both private and public spending increased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,513.2 billion, 1.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $1,497.2 billion. ...In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $412.4 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $411.8 billion..This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential (red) spending is 11.6% below the recent peak.Non-residential (blue) spending is close to the peak in April 2023.Public construction spending is at a new peak.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 11.6%. Non-residential spending is up 20.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 12.3% year-over-year.This was above consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase in spending and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up, combined.
Update: Lumber Prices Down About 35% YoY --Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16th. I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons.This graph shows CME random length framing futures through May 16th (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). LBR is currently at $528.50 per 1000 board feet.The year-over-year change is estimated using the previous series.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.We didn't see a significant runup in prices this Spring due to the housing slowdown.
Construction Spending on US Manufacturing Plants Soars, to De-Globalize Supply Chains? by Wolf Richter - The amount spent on building manufacturing plants in May in the US jumped by 73% from a year ago, and by 147% from May 2021, to $15.7 billion, according to Census Bureau data today. This by far outpaces the increase in construction costs (more on that in a moment).Over the six years between 2015 and 2020, construction spending on factories has stagnated roughly between $6 billion and $7 billion a month. But in the spring of 2021, spending began to rise, and then surge amid the global supply chain chaos raging at the time. The driver behind the surge of construction spending now is computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing.Construction spending on factories is interesting because of the long-term outlook it provides on the US manufacturing sector – particularly regarding computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing. Nonresidential construction spending overall in May rose 17% year-over-year and 26% from two years ago to a record of $90 billion, driven in part by surging construction costs.Nonresidential construction, in addition to factories, includes: lodging, office, commercial, healthcare, education, religious, public safety, amusement & recreation, transportation, communication, power, highway and street, sewage and waste disposal, water supply, and conservation and development.Nonresidential construction spending is very seasonal with a low in January and a high in the summer (green line). The red line reflects the 12-month moving average, which irons out the seasonality:We’ve already seen another sign the economy is flying at cruising altitude and refuses to land, even with short-term interest rates over 5%: Multifamily Construction Starts Spiked to Highest since 1986, Single-Family Starts Bounce.The share of manufacturing within nonresidential construction has doubled over the past two years, from a share of 8.9% in May 2021 to a share of 17.5% in May 2023. By looking at the percentage share, we eliminate the effects of rising construction costs:Computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing plants have been the primary drivers behind the surge of factory construction, according to an analysis in June by the Treasury Department.These types of plants had been a relatively small component of factory construction over the past few decades. Now these plants dominate construction spending on factories, according to the Treasury analysis.Adjusted for inflation based on construction costs, “real” spending on the construction of plants for computer, electronics, and electrical manufacturing has nearly quadrupled, according to the Treasury Department analysis last month.The boom in manufacturing construction spending started in early 2021, likely in response to the pandemic era supply-chain chaos and transportation nightmares that wreaked havoc on globalized supply strategies and led to previously unimaginable shortages.While the boom in manufacturing construction started over a year before the CHIPS Act was passed in August 2022, it is likely that the CHIPS Act has since then further accelerated the construction of manufacturing plants for tech products.
Elon Musk put new limits on tweets. Users and advertisers might go elsewhere - TikTok and Instagram users can scroll with abandon. But Twitter owner Elon Musk has put new curfews on his digital town square, the latest drastic change to the social media platform that could further drive away advertisers and undermine its cultural influence as a trendsetter. Keeping up with a sports game, extreme weather conditions or a major news event is getting harder under Musk’s new rules, which cap the number of tweets you can view as part of an apparent attempt to relieve the company’s overloaded web infrastructure. “The joke on Twitter is that people are going to go outside instead, but the reality is that they’re going to go to another app,” said Jasmine Enberg, an analyst with Insider Intelligence. “By sending users elsewhere, Musk is killing the main proposition Twitter has had for advertisers — a highly engaged user base, especially around news and events.”Musk recently hired longtime NBC Universal executive Linda Yaccarino as Twitter’s CEO to try to win back advertisers annoyed by a host of changes since Musk bought the platform for $44 billion last year. But she’s been silent about the new restrictions that lock users out if they view too many tweets in a day, leaving Musk to announce and explain them. The moves are “remarkably bad for Twitter’s users and advertisers,” decimating the reach and engagement that advertisers depend on, according to a statement from Forrester analyst Mike Proulx. Musk had tried on Saturday to describe how the limits work, saying accounts that don’t pay for a monthly subscription will temporarily be restricted to reading 600 posts per day, while verified accounts will be able to scroll through up to 6,000.After facing backlash, he tweeted that the thresholds would be raised to 800 posts for unverified accounts and 8,000 for verified accounts before later settling on 1,000 and 10,000 tweets, respectively.Many unverified users are “going to hit that limit fast,” said Enberg, because most Twitter users are consuming, not creating posts, and “typically scroll through an enormous number of tweets in a short period of time.”Enberg said Musk should be doing whatever he can to encourage engagement to show Twitter is still viable as it faces growing competition from upstart rivals, as well as a new Twitter-like service coming from Facebook and Instagram parent Meta. “Instead, he’s throttling it,” she said.
Americans Still in No Mood for Recession: New Vehicle Sales Jump 17.5% in Q2 YoY as Inventories Normalize after Shortages - by Wolf Richter - - Automakers have now reported deliveries for June and/or for Q2. They were up by a lot. The inventory shortages that dogged the industry in 2021 and 2022 are abating for most brands, and some brands are overstocked. Automakers are once again piling on incentives and offering special financing rates. Adios odious addendum stickers. Dealers are making deals, and so Americans are piling into dealerships once again. Sales compared to the same period a year ago:
- General Motors, Q2: +19%
- Ford, Q2: +11%
- Toyota, June +14.9%
- FCA (part of Stellantis), Q2: +6%
- Hyundai, Q2: +14%
- Honda, Q2: +45%
- Kia, June: + 8.3%; first half: +18%.
Total sales of new cars, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks in Q2 by all automakers jumped by 17.5% year-over-year, to 4.10 million vehicles, the highest since Q2 2021. These are deliveries to end users, either by dealers to their customers, or by automakers directly to large fleets, such as rental fleets. New vehicle inventories begin to normalize: overstocked here, out-of-stock there.Starting in early 2021, chip shortages and large-scale production cuts were triggering new-vehicle inventory shortages across the industry that crushed sales. Those shortages have been abating, and dealers are restocking, and customers are flocking to them to buy once again.Inventories of new vehicles on dealer lots or in transit rose to 1.96 million vehicles by the beginning of June, up by 73% year-over-year, the highest since April 2021, and double compared to the out-of-stock period in mid and late 2021, according to data from Cox Automotive.By comparison, in 2019, new vehicle inventory averaged 3.66 million vehicles. But dealers were overstocked back then: Days’ supply almost back to “healthy.” At the beginning of June, supply rose to 55 days. Over the past six months, supply has hovered in the 54-59-day range, while 60 days is considered “healthy.” By comparison, in 2019, supply averaged 90 days, when the industry was overstocked (which was a good time to buy a vehicle amid huge incentives and discounts). Some brands have vehicles coming out of their ears: Jeep started June with over 150 days’ supply, followed by Infiniti (119 days). Ram, Jaguar, Chrysler, Buick, and Lincoln all had over 100 days’ supply, according to Cox Automotive. Mini and Dodge had over 90 days’ supply.A bunch of brands had normal supply at the beginning of June including Ford with about 70 days, GMC with 60 days, Nissan with 58 days, Chevrolet with 50 days.But supply was still very tight for a few brands. Toyota, Honda, Lexus, and Kia had 30 days’ supply or less. Toyota’s Corolla and Highlander and Honda’s Civic had the lowest supply of just 21 days, which are essentially out-of-stock levels.
Heavy Truck Sales Up 15% Year-over-year in June - The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for June yesterday.This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 547 thousand SAAR in June, down from 566 thousand in May, and up 15% from 475 thousand SAAR in June 2022. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were strong in June.
AAR: June Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year -- From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads were down 0.2% in June 2023 from June 2022, their first decline in three months. Total carloads in 2023 through June (5.84 million) were up 0.6% (32,547( carloads) over the same period in 2022 and were the highest since 2019.U.S. intermodal volumes fell again in June — their 7.0% decline from June 2022 was their 16th straight. That said, U.S. railroads originated an average of 247,192 containers and trailers per week in June 2023, the most since October 2022.This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022:Total originated carloads (which don’t include intermodal) on U.S. railroads in June 2023 were down 0.2% from June 2022, their first decline in three months. In June, 11 of the 20 carload categories we track had carload gains ... Total carloads averaged 225,849 per week in June 2023. Except for December 2022, weekly average total carloads have fluctuated within a relatively narrow band for the past year.The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):U.S. intermodal was down 10.3% in Q2 2023 from Q2 2022 (their eighth straight quarterly decline) and also down 10.3% (698,375 units) for the year to date. Volume was 6.11 million units in the first six months of 2023, the fewest for the first six months of a year since 2013.Intermodal’s decline is a function of a number of factors, including reduced consumer spending on goods, sharply lower port activity, a lack of inventory growth at retailers, and lower truck rates that are making all-truck movements more price competitive vis-à-vis rail intermodal movements.
Trade Deficit Decreased to $69.0 Billion in May -The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $69.0 billion in May, down $5.5 billion from $74.4 billion in April, revised.May exports were $247.1 billion, $2.1 billion less than April exports. May imports were $316.1 billion, $7.5 billion less than April imports.Exports and imports decreased in May. Exports are down 3% year-over-year; imports are down 7% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - and both have been decreasing recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have picked up. The trade deficit with China decreased to $25.2 billion in March, from $31.5 billion a year ago. The trade deficit was slightly less than the consensus forecast.
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 46.0% in June --The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 46.0% in June, down from 46.9% in May. The employment index was at 48.1%, down from 51.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.6%, up from 42.6%.From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46% June 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 46.9 percent recorded in May. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a seventh month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.6 percent, 3 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.6 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 46.7 percent is a 4.4-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 51.1 percent. The Prices Index registered 41.8 percent, down 2.4 percentage points compared to the May figure of 44.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 38.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the May reading of 37.5 percent. The Employment Index dropped into contraction, registering 48.1 percent, down 3.3 percentage points from May’s reading of 51.4 percent.”This suggests manufacturing contracted in June. This was below the consensus forecast.
What Does The U.S. Manufacturing Slide Mean For Energy Markets? - Manufacturing activity in the United States has been decreasing over half a year, and the rate of contraction is speeding up. Indicators from indexes measuring factory activity suggest that a recession is on the horizon, and that layoffs will soon intensify in the manufacturing sector. The slowdown also has broad implications for energy prices affecting both the production and consumption sides of the energy market. This June marked the eighth consecutive month that manufacturing activity has fallen in the United States. Last month’s decrease has brought domestic factory activity to its lowest point in over three years, meaning that rates of production are now as bad as they were when the first wave of Covid was still ravaging markets. The duration of the current contraction is the longest since the great recession of 2008 to 2009. Even more concerning, the pace of the decrease in manufacturing productivity is speeding up – June’s contraction was greater than that in May, according to two brand new reports from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) from ISM and S&P Global were 46 and 48.4, respectively. By comparison, the ISM PMI was 46.9 in May, and S&P Global's PMI was 48.4 in the same month. According to measures for both indices, readings below 50 indicate contractions in activity, while readings above 50 indicate expansions. The ISM has been below 50 since November of 2022. To put this into greater perspective, the ISM composite manufacturing index slipped from the 14th percentile for all months since 1980 in May, to the 11th percentile in June. Just one year ago, the index was in the 35th percentile at a score of 53. "Demand remains weak, production is slowing due to lack of work, and suppliers have capacity," Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, said in a release accompanying the report’s release on Monday. "There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term." In other words, lots of people are about to get laid off. In addition to the reasons cited by ISM, according to industry insiders quoted by Bloomeberg, the current decline of U.S. manufacturing activity is being blamed on a variety of factors including a slowing economy, lower consumer spending, and difficulties hiring and retaining staff. Trouble in the manufacturing sector also spells trouble for energy markets. “Industrial energy consumption is closely correlated with the manufacturing and freight cycle,” Reuters reported earlier this week. “Freight transport and manufacturing account for more than 75% of all diesel and other distillate fuel oils consumed in the United States, so distillates are the most closely correlated with the manufacturing cycle.” As a result, previously high diesel prices have taken a bit of a dip.All of this points to a coming recession, and an impending fall in the price of core goods – a silver lining for consumers. However, there are some economic indicators which are not looking as grim as the manufacturing numbers. “At face value, the ISM survey is consistent with an economy that is in recession,” Reuters reports. “But the so-called hard data such as nonfarm payrolls, first-time applications for unemployment benefits and housing starts, suggest the economy continues to grind along.” This is also true for energy markets, and diesel in particular. However, it doesn’t look like the energy sector is going to take a prolonged hit. Despite lower demand and reversal of previous price increases, there has not been a significant increase in spare capacity nor much of an inventory cushion. This means that if manufacturing exits its slump to resume its growth trajectory, prices will likely skyrocket off of a tight supply.
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 9.8 million in May From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings decreased to 9.8 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 6.2 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) increased, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for May the employment report this Friday will be for June. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in May to 9.8 million from 10.3 million in April. The number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year. Quits were down 5% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
May JOLTS report: continued decelerating trend, but still extremely positive - Let me start out with the statement that has been my touchstone for the JOLTS report for the last year or more: for the last several years, the jobs market has been a game of “reverse musical chairs,” where there are always more chairs than participants. Those employers whose chairs weren’t filled had to increase their wage and/or benefits offerings, or go without. This was good for labor, but certainly put pressure on prices as well. Because the jobs market has remained so strong, it has been unlikely that a recession would start unless the situation with job openings returned to at least close to its pre-pandemic levels. Only then could there be enough layoffs to actually be consistent with a negative monthly jobs number. This morning’s report for May was more of the same: the decelerating trend remained intact, but there was some month over month strength. And there hasn’t been enough of a return to pre-pandemic “normalcy” to make me think we are anywhere close to an actual negative monthly jobs print. To the numbers: Job openings declined -496,000 to 9.824 million. This is less than 1/2 of the decline from the post-pandemic peak of 12.200 million vs. the pre-pandemic peak of 7.600 million. Hires rose 107,000 to 6.208 million, still significantly above their pre-pandemic record. And Quits rose 250,000 to 4.015 million, also well above their pre-pandemic level, but also well below their post-pandemic peak: Here is the long-term pre-pandemic history of all three metrics for comparison: Just to emphasize again: note the current numbers are all trending down from their post-pandemic peaks, but not close to their pre-pandemic averages or even peaks. Meanwhile layoffs and discharges were virtually unchanged from April, at 1.585 million: Here is their pre-pandemic history as well, showing that they are well below those levels (a positive): Last month I wrote that “there are two overarching trends in this data: (1) the absolute fundamentals for labor remain quite positive, (2) but they continue to decelerate.” That remained the case with this month’s report. While I am anticipating that the unemployment rate is likely in rise slightly in the next few months, I don’t think we are anywhere near having an actual negative jobs print.
ADP: Private Employment Increased 497,000 in June -- From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 497,000 Jobs in June; Annual Pay was Up 6.4% Private sector employment increased by 497,000 jobs in June and annual pay was up 6.4 percent year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).... “Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge.” This was way above the consensus forecast of 236,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 200 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in June.
June Employment Report: 209 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate -- From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 77,000, from +294,000 to +217,000, and the change for May was revised down by 33,000, from +339,000 to +306,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 209 thousand in June. Private payrolls increased by 149 thousand, and public payrolls increased 60 thousand. Payrolls for April and May were revised down 110 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In June, the year-over-year change was 3.79 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6% in June, from 62.6% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.3% from 60.3% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in June to 3.6% from 3.7% in May. This was at consensus expectations; however, April and May payrolls were revised down by 110,000 combined.
Economy adds 209K jobs in June, unemployment at 3.6 percent - The U.S. added 209,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.6 percent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. Economists expected the U.S. to add roughly 240,000 jobs last month and for the jobless rate to fall to 3.6 percent, according to consensus estimates, down from 3.7 percent in May. Despite persistent recession warnings and rapid Federal Reserve rate hikes, the U.S. economy has remained sturdy throughout 2023. The U.S. has added an average of 278,000 jobs per month this year, down from 399,000 per month in 2022 but well above the level needed to keep the economy growing. Wage growth has also remained strong, with earnings rising 4.4 percent over the past 12 months and outpacing the annual inflation rate of 3.6 percent, according to the Labor Department. The resilIence of the economy has spurred optimism among policymakers eager for the U.S. to escape high inflation without the blow of a recession. “There is a path to getting inflation back down to 2 percent without having to see the kind of sharp downturn and large losses in employment,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month after the central bank paused a run of 10 consecutive rate hikes. Even so, Fed officials are almost certain to resume interest rate hikes when the bank’s rate-setting committee meets in July. While the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously agreed to hold off on rate hikes last month, several officials privately advocated for another increase in June.
June jobs report: deceleration continues, with weakest private jobs sector growth since 2020 - My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated.In May the headlines on employment were decent if slightly weak, but hid much more weakness, while unemployment improved, but not for the best of reasons. Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 209,000 jobs added, the weakest monthly number since December 2020.
- Private sector jobs increased only 149,000. Even worse, Education hiring was 73,000 of that total; all remaining private categories added only 76,000. Government jobs increased by 60,000.
- April was revised lower by -77,000 (still -19,000 below its original number) and May by -33,000, for a total of -110,000. The three month moving average decreased to 244,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report rose by 273,000 jobs. The YoY% gain in this report is only +1.5%.
- The U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.6% (still above the 3.4% low last year). The civilian labor force, the denominator in the figure, rose slightly (by 183,00), while the numerator, the number of unemployed, declined by -140,000.
- U6 underemployment rate rose 0.2% to 6.9%
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declilned -88,000 to 5.389 million, still well above its post-pandemic low..
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 40.7, still down -0.9 hours from February peak last year of 41.6 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs increased by 7,000.
- Construction jobs increased by 23,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 800. It nevertheless appears likely that January was the peak for this sector.
- Goods jobs as a whole rose 29,000. These should decline before any recession occurs.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late last year, declined sharply, by -12,600.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined -15,000 to 2,068,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.13, or +0.3%, to $28.75, a YoY gain of 4.7%, the lowest YoY gain since June of 2021.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased 0.2%.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.5%, and increased 6.2% YoY, the lowest rate since March 2021, but significantly above the inflation rate, meaning average working class families have more buying power.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose only 21,000, -328,000, or -2.0% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments, declined for the first time since 2020, down -800 jobs, and remain-52,100, or -0.4% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Professional and business employment rose only 21,000. This series has also been decelerating, but has stabilized in the past few months, currently up 2.5% YoY.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons rose a sharp 452,000.
SUMMARY: The headline for this report would be the typical “deceleration continues, but objectively strong” if it were not for the anemic private jobs growth. Only 76,000 private jobs were added, ex-education. Professional and business job growth declined to its lowest level in 3 years except for 2 months. Restaurant and bar employment actually declined, ending its strong comeback.Further, while the unemployment rate declined slightly, this was in part due to a lackluster increase in the civilian labor force. And the underemployment rate increased to its highest level in almost a year, due in large part to a sharp increase in involuntary part time employment.On the plus side, the leading sectors of manufacturing, construction, and employment in the goods producing sector as a whole all increased. I do not think there is going to be a recession until this sector definitively rolls over.
Landing Still Cancelled: Labor Market Cruises through Updrafts and Air Pockets By Wolf Richter -Job markets don’t turn around on a dime, unless some kind of meteor hits the economy. So we’re going to look beyond the artificial drama of the month-to-month changes, and we’re going to look at the trends, and by those trends, the labor market is cruising along, flying right through occasional updrafts and air pockets.For over a year now, we’ve been waiting for the labor market to land. But that just hasn’t happened, though the Fed has jacked up its policy rates to 5.25% and is getting ready to push them higher, in order to bring the labor market to land. What has happened is that the labor market has come down from the stratosphere and is cruising along at a still fairly high altitude. Employers added 209,000 payroll-type jobs in June, based on surveys of establishments by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past three months, employers added 732,000 jobs, for an average of 244,000 per month, which is still higher than during the Good Times before the pandemic. So far this year, 1.67 million jobs were created. This chart shows the three-month moving average, which irons out some of the noisy ups-and-downs: These additions raised the total number of payroll-type jobs to 156.6 million: The total number of workers, including those with gig work, rose by 273,000 in June, after the decline in May, and after the jumps in the prior months. This data is based on surveys of households and tracks work of any kind including by the self-employed that are not included in the above establishment data. The household data is very volatile, with big monthly ups and downs, so we’ll look at the six-month average: Over the past six months, the number of people who are working grew by 1.75 million, for an average of 291,700 per month, which is also largely above the Good Times before the pandemic: This total number of workers, from employees at companies to the self-employed, rose to 161.0 million in June: The number of unemployed people who are actively looking for a job dipped again in June to 5.96 million, after ticking up in May. The three-month average has been inching up from historic lows early this year but remains historically low: The labor force gained 133,000 people in June, to a total labor force of 167.0 million. These are people who are either working or actively looking for work. Over the past three months, the labor force ticked up only by 220,000 people, held down by a decline in April. Over the past six months, it rose by 1.98 million. This chart shows the three-month moving average: The prime-age labor participation rate – people aged 24 through 54 either working or actively looking for work – rose to 83.5% in June, the highest since 2002 when the labor market came out of the Dotcom-Bubble period. The three-month average rose to 83.3%. People in their prime working age are now participating in the labor market at a rate not seen in 20 years. The prime-age data dodges the issues of the bulging ranks of older people who are either retired or on the verge of retirement: But all the breathless layoff hype in the media tamped down on wage growth, which is why companies that get a lot of media attention make such a big to-do out of their global layoff announcements. And the media jump all over it. It just scares workers, and they’re less likely to ask for a raise, and they’re less likely to push for higher compensation when they get hired. And we’re starting to see that in other data too. Average hourly earnings of “production and non-supervisory employees” rose by 0.38% in June from May, same as in the prior month. The three-month average was 0.36%, same as in the prior month, and has been in the 0.36% to 0.38% for the past five months. This translates into an annualized increase of around 4.7%. And that seems where wage increases are now stabilizing. Year-over-year, average hourly earnings of “production and non-supervisory employees” rose by 4.7%, in line with the annualized rates in recent months, but the smallest year-over-year increase since June 2021. By comparison, the Consumer Price Index for all items increased by 4.1% year-over-year. And for now, workers are out-earning CPI inflation. These “production and non-supervisory employees” are engineers, teachers, bartenders, technicians, drivers, retail workers, wait staff, office workers, construction workers, nurses, etc. in non-supervisory roles. They make up the bulk of total employment. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6%, as per the narrowest unemployment measure, from 3.7% in May, but up from 3.4% in April, which had been a historic low. The rate dipped due to the mix of an only slightly larger labor force but fewer unemployed people. The rate has hovered in the range between 3.4% and 3.8% since February 2022. The employment-to-population ratio remained at 60.3%, same as in May, but down from 60.4% in March and April. All of them are the highest since before the pandemic. Since there is no upper age limit in this metric of “working age,” it includes retirees and points at the bulge of people who retired recently.
Comments on June Employment Report – McBride - The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.6%. Leisure and hospitality gained 21 thousand jobs in June. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 369 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 96% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 20 thousand and is now 339 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 7 thousand jobs and is now 204 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: June Employment Report: 209 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate In June, the year-over-year employment change was 3.79 million jobs. Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in June to 83.5% from 83.4% in May, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.9% from 80.7% the previous month. Both are above the pre-pandemic levels and suggest all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% YoY in June. Year-over-year wage growth will likely slow further next month since wage growth was strong in July 2022. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in June to 4.191 million from 3.739 million in May. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 6.9% from 6.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is below the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.105 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.188 million the previous month. This is at pre-pandemic levels. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was at expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Overall, this was a solid employment report.
Worker concerns about EV manufacturing wages could become unlikely fodder for Republicans - Workers are concerned major automakers are using the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) to undercut wages, complicating the politics of an issue that is emerging as a point of contention in the 2024 election. The powerful United Auto Workers (UAW) union, which has historically supported Democrats and backed President Biden in 2020, has so far withheld an endorsement from the president in his ongoing reelection bid, saying they want more backing from the White House amid the shift to more climate-friendly vehicles before they can support him. Republicans are tapping into some of the workers’ frustrations, railing against the transition, including in swing states like Michigan, a major auto manufacturing hub. But the union says it is not inherently against electric vehicles, just the practices that employers are adopting. In a new video posted online this week, the auto union laments what it describes as benefits of the transition — including government funding — going to employers rather than employees. “The Big Three automakers: Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, are taking billions of dollars in government subsidies to go electric, but those benefits aren’t trickling down to UAW members,” union president Shawn Fain says in the video. The auto union particularly cites the 2019 closure of a General Motors (GM) plant in Lordstown, Ohio, where the union says workers were on track to make upwards of $30 per hour. It notes that after the closure, a new battery plant from Ultium Cells, a joint venture between GM and LG, opened up in the area in 2022. But the union said workers there only make $16.50 per hour.
UPS reaches deal that lowers chances of nationwide Teamsters strike --United Parcel Service (UPS) Saturday reached a tentative deal with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters that would end a dual-wage system for delivery drivers in its next contract, the union announced, a win for the Teamsters that could lower the chances of a nationwide strike as negotiations continue.“During a hard-fought day at the bargaining table, the #Teamsters reached [a] tentative agreement with @UPS on three major economic issues,” the union announced in a Twitter thread, “tearing down the 22.4 two-tier wage system, establishing Martin Luther King Day as a full holiday for the first time, and ending forced overtime on drivers’ days off.”The Teamsters last week held off plans to strike to head back to the negotiating table after UPS offered a counterproposal to the union’s requests with regard to compensation and benefits before the current contract expires on July 31. “The extraordinary gains, each of which have been key issues for #Teamsters throughout the yearlong contract campaign, came on the heels of an aggressive public warning from the Teamsters National Negotiating Committee that @UPS was running out of time to get a deal,” the Teamsters union said SaturdayAt the same time, general president Sean M. O’Brien stressed that there’s still work to be done to get a new contract in place by August 1.“But make no mistake — we are not done. @UPS knows we must reach full agreement on other economic issues, including higher wages, within the next few days,” O’Brien said. Negotiations are set to continue Sunday in Washington, according to the union’s update.The union, which comprises more than 300,000 workers, said Sunday that despite “major gains at the bargaining table, practice picketing actions will not let up.”
More hot air at UPS as Teamsters falsely claim “victory” on second-tier wages - Talks continued between UPS and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters this weekend, in spite of statements from the union declaring a strike by August 1 “inevitable” and demanding the company’s “last, best and final offer” by last Friday. Now, the Teamsters are calling for the contract to be settled by July 5. This is the latest in a series of maneuvers by the union designed to head off strike action by 340,000 workers and impose a sellout contract at the largest unionized private employer in the United States. They are using such bluster to frame the sellout which they are working out behind closed doors as the product of “tough negotiating.” The bureaucracy has also pledged greater transparency in the contract talks, but it signed a non-disclosure agreement at the outset in order to prevent workers from learning the real content of the talks. To prevent a sellout, rank-and-file workers must organize themselves independently to prepare for a struggle against both the company and the pro-corporate bureaucracy, and behind both of them, the White House and both big business parties, which banned a rail strike late last year and imposed a company contract workers had preveiously rejected. Friday’s deadline was the latest “ultimatum” which was then quickly abandoned by the union. However, it is likely that the union will be pushing as hard as possible to meet its new deadline of this Wednesday in order to give itself time to ram through the new contract in advance of their self-declared August 1 strike deadline, when the current contract expires. At the start of talks, the Teamsters bureaucracy declared they would not begin talks on the national agreement until tentative agreements had been reached for all 44 supplemental deals at the local and regional levels. However, the Teamsters quickly reversed themselves. The last local deal was only struck Sunday night, for 7,000 workers at Local 710 in Chicago. No details whatsoever were released by the union on the content of that agreement, which is technically a separate, local-specific contract rather than a supplemental rider to the national contract. The deal covers all non-economic issues for Chicago-area UPS workers.
Workers cannot sue over COVID spread to households, California court rules (Reuters) - Employers cannot be held liable when workers contract COVID-19 on the job and spread it to their household members, California's top court has ruled, siding with business groups that warned of a potential flood of litigation.The seven-member California Supreme Court on Thursday ruled unanimously that allowing so-called "take-home COVID" claims could encourage businesses to adopt precautions that slow the delivery of services to the public or to shut down completely during pandemics.A woman named Corby Kuciemba filed the lawsuit, saying she became seriously ill when her husband contracted COVID at his job with Nevada-based Victory Woodworks Inc in 2020 at a construction site in San Francisco and passed it to her.A ruling in favor of Kuciemba would have turned every employer in California into a potential defendant, the court said, even when the company had taken reasonable steps to prevent the spread of the virus or when it is impossible to prove that employees contracted COVID at work."Even limiting a duty of care to employees' household members, the pool of potential plaintiffs would be enormous, numbering not thousands but millions of Californians," Justice Carol Corrigan wrote for the court.William Bogdan, a lawyer representing Victory Woodworks, said the ruling was significant even though the pandemic is over because there is a two-year window under California law to sue for negligence."The court recognized that employers and the courts would be overwhelmed" if it allowed take home COVID lawsuits, Bogdan said.A lawyer for Kuciemba did not immediately respond to a request for comment.The state court took the case after the San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals last year asked it to decide whether California law recognizes negligence claims against employers when workers spread COVID to household members. The 9th Circuit is considering Kuciemba's bid to revive her lawsuit after it was dismissed by a federal judge. After Thursday's ruling, the 9th Circuit is expected to uphold that decision.
Remote work poses risks to physical health --The explosion of remote work in recent years may come with a physical toll. Three years after the arrival of COVID-19 triggered a mass exodus from offices, about 22 million Americans were still working fully remotely as of March 2023, according to Pew Research Center data. The shift to remote work has been life-changing for many working adults, like those who have disabilities or are caregivers to family members, and surveys show Americans as a whole love working from home. But doing so has its downsides. Remote work has been linked to poorer sleep, trouble with relaxing and mental health concerns. And it poses a risk to physical health, as well. A more sedentary lifestyle can lead to blood clots, long-term health issues. When it comes to the physical toll of remote work, health experts are most concerned about teleworkers’ lack of movement during the day. The world has been struggling with a physical inactivity crisis for years. In 2008, about 31 percent of people 15 years or older and older were “insufficiently physically active,” according to World Health Organization data.And that crisis appears to have been exacerbated by COVID-related lockdowns and potentially worsened by remote work, according to Ross Arena, a professor of physical therapy at the University of Illinois, Chicago. “One of the big questions is are we going to bounce back? Or are we going to become the new even worse normal where the world is moving even less,” said Arena. The average remote worker just takes 16 steps from their bed to their workstation, according to a 2022 survey from Upright, an app that promotes good back health. And multiple studies show such workers are physically less active than their office-going counterparts. That same survey also found that 54 percent of remote and hybrid workers believe that their movement during the workday has shrunk by 50 percent or more over the past year. One 2021 analysis from Standford University found that between 2007 and 2016 the average time American adult spent sitting increased from 5.5 to 6.4 hours a day. By April 2020, 40 percent of U.S. adults sat more than eight hours a day. One worry associated with a mainly sedentary lifestyle is blood clots. Sitting for too long can increase a person’s chance of developing a blood clot like deep vein thrombosis, or a clot that forms in veins deep in the body, which can then travel up to the lungs and cause a pulmonary embolism, or a blockage of blood flow. A pulmonary embolism can in turn stop oxygen from entering the bloodstream, damaging organs, and can quickly become life-threatening.
The Return of Child Labor As the Latest Sign of American Decline - Child labor might have shocked that outsider in 1906, but it was all too commonplace then across urban, industrial America (and on farms where it had been customary for centuries). In more recent times, however, it’s become a far rarer sight. Law and custom, most of us assume, drove it to near extinction. And our reaction to seeing it reappear might resemble that chief’s — shock, disbelief. But we better get used to it, since child labor is making a comeback with a vengeance. A striking number of lawmakers are undertaking concerted efforts to weaken or repeal statutes that have long prevented (or at least seriously inhibited) the possibility of exploiting children. Take a breath and consider this: the number of kids at work in the U.S. increased by 37% between 2015 and 2022. During the last two years, 14 states have either introduced or enacted legislation rolling back regulations that governed the number of hours children can be employed, lowered the restrictions on dangerous work, and legalized subminimum wages for youths.Iowa now allows those as young as 14 to work in industrial laundries. At age 16, they can take jobs in roofing, construction, excavation, and demolition and can operate power-driven machinery. Fourteen-year-olds can now even worknight shifts and once they hit 15 can join assembly lines. All of this was, of course, prohibited not so long ago. Legislators offer fatuous justifications for such incursions into long-settled practice. Working, they tell us, will get kids off their computers or video games or away from the TV. Or it will strip the government of the power to dictate what children can and can’t do, leaving parents in control — a claim alreadytransformed into fantasy by efforts to strip away protective legislation and permit 14-year-old kids to work without formal parental permission.In 2014, the Cato Institute, a right-wing think tank, published “A Case Against Child Labor Prohibitions,” arguing that such laws stifled opportunity for poor — and especially Black — children. The Foundation for Government Accountability, a think tank funded by a range of wealthy conservative donors including the DeVos family, has spearheaded efforts to weaken child-labor laws, and Americans for Prosperity, the billionaire Koch brothers’ foundation, has joined in.Nor are these assaults confined to red states like Iowa or the South. California, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, as well as Georgia and Ohio, have been targeted, too. Even New Jersey passed a law in the pandemic years temporarily raising the permissible work hours for 16- to 18-year-olds.The blunt truth of the matter is that child labor pays and is fast becoming remarkably ubiquitous. It’s an open secret that fast-food chains have employed underage kids for years and simply treat the occasional fines for doing so as part of the cost of doing business. Children as young as 10 have been toiling away in such pit stops in Kentucky and older ones working beyond the hourly limits prescribed by law. Roofers in Florida and Tennessee can now be as young as 12.Recently, the Labor Department found more than 100 children between the ages of 13 and 17 working in meatpacking plants and slaughterhouses in Minnesota and Nebraska. And those were anything but fly-by-night operations. Companies like Tyson Foods and Packer Sanitation Services (owned by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm) were also on the list.At this point, virtually the entire economy is remarkably open to child labor. Garment factories and auto parts manufacturers (supplying Ford and General Motors) employ immigrant kids, some for 12-hour days. Many are compelled to drop out of school just to keep up. In a similar fashion, Hyundai and Kia supply chains depend on children working in Alabama.As the New York Times reported last February, helping break the story of the new child labor market, underage kids, especially migrants, are working in cereal-packing plants and food-processing factories. In Vermont, “illegals” (because they’re too young to work) operate milking machines. Some children help make J. Crew shirts in Los Angeles, bake rolls for Walmart, or work producing Fruit of the Loom socks. Danger lurks. America is a notoriously unsafe place to work and the accident rate for child laborers is especially high, including a chilling inventory of shattered spines, amputations, poisonings, and disfiguring burns.
One in five US employees serves as an unpaid caregiver - If you or someone you know juggles unpaid caregiving duties for a family member who is elderly, sick or disabled, it may come as a surprise to learn that one in five of all US employees finds themselves in the same boat. A white paper, Invisible Overtime: What employers need to know about caregivers, from The Rosalynn Carter Institute for Caregivers gives insight into the challenges faced by those who try to balance work with their caregiving responsibilities.Over the course of the pandemic, caregivers have grown in number, their isolation has intensified, and their physical and mental health has suffered.The RCIC’s research shows that caregiver employees provide an average of 20 unpaid caregiving hours per week, which goes a long way towards explaining why nearly one-third of caregiver employees have voluntarily left a job because of their caregiving responsibilities. Reasons for leaving include difficulties in finding affordable or high-quality paid help, and in meeting work demands due to caregiving duties.No matter how much an individual wants to perform that caring role and does so willingly, the consequences for the individual who gives up a job they enjoy in order to be able to care for a loved one are serious both in terms of both loss of income and sense of purpose.So much of our sense of self-worth is tied up in being paid for the work we do that giving up paid employment can have consequences for our mental health and wellbeing.Given the current labor shortage, losing valued employees to their caring responsibilities is a problem for employers too. Caregivers can be coworkers, managers, corporate executives, business owners, clients and customers. They are present in all industries and all geographic areas.The research underpinning the white paper found caregiver employees missed an average of 3.2 workdays in the prior month, an estimated average productivity loss of $1,123 per caregiver employee.
Migrant Workers Flee Florida as New Immigration Law Takes Effect - Florida’s agricultural and construction industries say they are experiencing a labor shortage because a new immigration law that took effect July 1, 2023, is leading migrant workers to leave the state. The law, signed in May by Florida governor and GOP presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, seeks to further criminalize undocumented immigration in the state. The law makes it a third-degree felony for unauthorized people to knowingly use a false identification to obtain employment. Businesses that knowingly employ unauthorized workers could have their licenses suspended, and those with 25 or more employees that repeatedly fail to use the E-Verify system to check their immigration status can face daily fines. Business owners and workers alike say the ranks of laborers in Florida have grown noticeably thinner. “The employee who wants to work on the farm is not available anymore,” said Hitesh Kotecha, owner of a produce packaging facility in South Florida who leases land to farmers. “How are we going to run the farms?”
Florida construction and agricultural workforces diminished after new immigration law takes effect --A new law that took effect in Florida on July 1 is already hitting the state's agricultural and construction industries hard.The law, signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in May, makes it a third-degree felony for people to use a false identification to get hired for work. Any business that is found to knowingly employ those unauthorized workers could have its license revoked and face daily fines. Additionally, hospitals that accept Medicaid are now required to question a patient's immigration status, driver's licenses given to undocumented immigrants in other states are invalid, and it's a third-degree felony to knowingly transport undocumented immigrants into the state. An estimated 772,000 undocumented immigrants lived in Florida in 2019, with many working on construction sites, farms and packaging facilities. Migrant workers began leaving the state once DeSantis signed the new law in May,The Wall Street Journal reported, including those who are authorized to work but are married to someone who isn't. A spokesperson for DeSantis defended the law, saying that businesses that hire undocumented immigrants "instead of Floridians will be held accountable." At multiple construction sites in Miami, workers shared with the Journal that they have lost about half of their crews; one man said he knows people who went to Indiana, where they could make $38 an hour instead of $25 and not have to worry about running afoul of the immigration law. Tom C. Murphy, co-president of Coastal Construction, told the Journal there was already a labor shortage before the law went into effect, and while "we fully support documentation of the immigrant workforce, the new law is aggravating an already trying situation."Immigration is usually a federal area of law, immigration lawyer Daniela Barshel told the Journal, and it will be difficult to give guidance to clients when there are differing state and federal rules. "It's kind of extreme that Florida passed a law like this," she said. Companies cannot be advised to stop hiring noncitizens, since that could be discrimination on the basis of race or national origin, leaving businesses with no easy path forward. "You don't want to be fined by the government, and you also don't want to be sued by someone because they were authorized to work and you didn't hire them," Barshel said.
Thirty people hit in Baltimore mass shooting, two dead The Baltimore police reported a mass shooting overnight Saturday at a block party in the Brooklyn neighborhood of South Baltimore. Two people were killed and 28 were injured, with three in critical condition. The suspects have not been found as of this writing. The incident is the largest mass shooting in the city in over a decade, according to the Gun Violence Archive. The police say the two people killed were an 18-year-old woman and a 20-year-old man. Victims reportedly ranged from 21 to 34 years old. “Me and Aaron were waiting for him to be seen when the first car came pulling in and we ended up helping get him in the ER,” said a local resident on social media about the scene at the hospital. “The next thing you know, car after car, kid after kid just kept pulling in and jumping out, all got shot somewhere on their body.” The resident noted that a car “pulled right up to the door bringing two girls… that were shot… it’s crazy and so sad they were all babies!!” The mass shooting is the fifth the city has seen in 2023, with the police reporting nearly 130 homicides and almost 300 shootings so far this year. It occurred around 12:30 AM at a block party associated with the neighborhood’s annual “Brooklyn Day” festivities. Nineteen victims were sent to MedStar Harbor Hospital, all of whom were “suffering varying degrees of injury from gunshot wounds,” according to hospital spokespeople. One resident told the Baltimore Sun that “not a day goes by we don’t hear shots.” The 2020 US Census reports that the city has a 20.3 percent poverty rate, with a per capita income of $34,378. These statistics persist even as Baltimore’s unemployment rates have dropped to historic lows, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting last month that unemployment in the city was less than two percent. In Baltimore City as a whole, there were 4,845 violent crimes, a 7.2 percent decrease compared to the same time last year, but with property crimes up by 34.47 percent this year.
At least 14 killed in mass shootings in Philadelphia, Baltimore, Texas and Missouri over Independence Day holiday period - On Independence Day eve, just before 8:30 p.m. on July 3 in the working class neighborhood of Kingsessing in southwest Philadelphia, a man wearing a black ski mask and Kevlar body armor, armed with an AR-15-style rifle, began “randomly” massacring people, according to Philadelphia police. At least five people between the ages of 15 and 59 were killed, while two children, ages two and 13, suffered serious gunshot wounds. Monday’s massacre was just one of several horrific mass shootings in the United States during the days leading up to the annual Independence Day holiday on July 4. Just before midnight on Monday, 11 people were shot and three were killed in a parking lot in the Como neighborhood of Fort Worth, Texas. The shooting occurred after an annual neighborhood gathering dubbed “Comofest” had ended. Police have yet to announce any suspects or arrests in the Fort Worth shooting.At 12:30 a.m. on Sunday, July 2, gunmen opened fire on a block party in the Brooklyn neighborhood of South Baltimore, Maryland. Two people were killed and 28 injured, with three in critical condition. The police say the two people killed were an 18-year-old woman and a 20-year-old man. Victims reportedly ranged from 21 to 34 years old. The shooting took place during an annual local celebration called “Brooklyn Day.” Police say the assault was the largest shooting incident in the city’s history. While public mass shootings have, tragically, become almost commonplace in capitalist America, the phenomenon of a private mass “family annihilator,” that is, a close family member who commits a multiple murder-suicide, targeting spouses, children and close relatives, is also on the rise. In St. Ann, Missouri, Monday night, a drunk 34-year-old Coleman McIlvain murdered his girlfriend and shot her three children, killing her 14-year-old son and her five-year-old son before turning the gun on himself, according to local police. The deceased woman’s nine-year-old daughter, who was shot in the hand, managed to escape and get help from neighbors.
The privatization of public education in the United States is accelerating backed by billionaires including Betsy DeVos - The privatization of K-12 public education in the United States is accelerating. In 2023, 14 states have passed bills either establishing privatization schemes (euphemistically referred to as “school choice”) or expanding existing ones. Overall, 42 states have introduced “school choice” bills this year. So far this year Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Oklahoma and Utah have passed legislation making school vouchers available to all or nearly all students, regardless of family income or current private school attendance status, joining existing universal programs in Arizona and West Virginia. Eight other states have passed laws in 2023 increasing the number of students eligible to use public funds for private education: Alabama, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Tennessee and Wyoming. Wisconsin and North Carolina are also poised to soon pass large expansions of their already-existing programs. While privatization schemes have been around for years, they were generally restricted to students from low-income households and in low performing schools. Under the new privatization efforts, all or nearly all students, even those already attending private schools and those from wealthy families can access public funds to attend private schools. “Private school choice is not a new thing, but what we’re seeing now is very new,” Bella DiMarco, a policy analyst at FutureEd, told Education Week “This is really the universal year.” The new laws amount to a direct transfer of public funds to the super wealthy to continue to send their children to elite private institutions. To take one example, the Arizona education department reported that in 2022, 75 percent of students applying for vouchers had never attended public schools. Those using vouchers also tend to be from wealthy families. According to K-12 Dive, more than half of school privatization tax credits in Arizona, Louisiana and Virginia go to families with incomes over $200,000. “School choice” programs also decimate funding for public education. A recent analysis by the non-profit Public Funds Public Schools examined voucher programs in seven states and found that in six of them, investment in public schools fell as voucher spending increased.
Ransomware criminals are dumping kids' private files online after school hacks The confidential documents stolen from schools and dumped online by ransomware gangs are raw, intimate and graphic. They describe student sexual assaults, psychiatric hospitalizations, abusive parents, truancy — even suicide attempts.“Please do something,” begged a student in one leaked file, recalling the trauma of continually bumping into an ex-abuser at a school in Minneapolis. Other victims talked about wetting the bed or crying themselves to sleep.Complete sexual assault case folios containing these details were among more than 300,000 files dumped online in March after the 36,000-student Minneapolis Public Schools refused to pay a $1 million ransom. Other exposed data included medical records, discrimination complaints, Social Security numbers and contact information of district employees.Rich in digitized data, the nation’s schools are prime targets for far-flung criminal hackers, who are assiduously locating and scooping up sensitive files that not long ago were committed to paper in locked cabinets. “In this case, everybody has a key,” said cybersecurity expert Ian Coldwater, whose son attends a Minneapolis high school.Often strapped for cash, districts are grossly ill-equipped not just to defend themselves but to respond diligently and transparently when attacked, especially as they struggle to help kids catch up from the pandemic and grapple with shrinking budgets.Months after the Minneapolis attack, administrators have not delivered on their promise to inform individual victims. Unlike for hospitals, no federal law exists to require this notification from schools.The Associated Press reached families of six students whose sexual assault case files were exposed. The message from a reporter was the first time anyone had alerted them.“Truth is, they didn’t notify us about anything,” said a mother whose son’s case file has 80 documents.
Activists spurred by affirmative action ruling challenge legacy admissions at Harvard (AP) — A civil rights group is challenging legacy admissions at Harvard University, saying the practice discriminates against students of color by giving an unfair boost to the mostly white children of alumni.The practice of giving priority to the children of alumni has faced growing pushback in the wake of last week’s Supreme Court’s decision ending affirmative action in higher education. The NAACP added its weight behind the effort on Monday, asking more than 1,500 colleges and universities to even the playing field in admissions, including by ending legacy admissions.The civil rights complaint was filed Monday by Lawyers for Civil Rights, a nonprofit based in Boston, on behalf of Black and Latino community groups in New England, alleging that Harvard’s admissions system violates the Civil Rights Act.“Why are we rewarding children for privileges and advantages accrued by prior generations?” said Ivan Espinoza-Madrigal, the group’s executive director. “Your family’s last name and the size of your bank account are not a measure of merit, and should have no bearing on the college admissions process.”Opponents say the practice is no longer defensible without affirmative actionproviding a counterbalance. The court’s ruling says colleges must ignore the race of applicants, activists point out, but schools can still give a boost to the children of alumni and donors.The complaint, submitted with the Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights, draws on Harvard data that came to light amid the affirmative action case that landed before the Supreme Court. The records revealed that 70% of Harvard’s donor-related and legacy applicants are white, and being a legacy student makes an applicant roughly six times more likely to be admitted.It draws attention to other colleges that have abandoned the practice amid questions about its fairness, including Amherst College and Johns Hopkins University.The complaint alleges that Harvard’s legacy preference has nothing to do with merit and takes away slots from qualified students of color. It asks the U.S. Education Department to declare the practice illegal and force Harvard to abandon it as long as the university receives federal funding.
Harvard faces civil rights complaint over its legacy admissions - Harvard is facing a civil rights complaint over the school’s legacy admissions after the Supreme Court ruled against race-conscious admissions practices.“Each year, Harvard College grants special preference in its admissions process to hundreds of mostly white students — not because of anything they have accomplished, but rather solely because of who their relatives are,” according to the complaint filed by Lawyers for Civil Rights (LCR) on behalf of Black and Latino groups based in New England.The groups argue that legacy admissions, a process that gives priority in the college applications process to children of alumni or applicants related to wealthy donors, boosts white students over students of color. “The students who receive this preferential treatment — based solely on familial ties — are overwhelmingly white. Nearly 70% of donor-related applicants are white, and nearly 70% of legacy applicants are also white,” the complaint reads. The new complaint comes after the Supreme Court last week decided to effectively end affirmative action, ruling 6-3 against race-conscious admissions policies at Harvard and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and restricting the use of race as a factor in college admissions.The decision drew starkly different reactions from Republicans and Democrats, with many on the left decrying it as a blow to diversity in the college admissions process.In remarks after the court’s decision, President Biden said he was directing the Department of Education “to analyze what practices help build a more inclusive and diverse student bodies and what practices hold that back, practices like legacy admissions and other systems that expand privilege instead of opportunity.”The civil rights complaint against Harvard further argues that preferential treatment to donor and legacy relatives is “conferred without regard to the applicant’s credentials or merits” and is therefore “not justified by any educational necessity.”
Retirees are underestimating how long they will live - A significant share of older Americans underestimate how long their retirement is going to last: i.e., how long they are going to live. Most people know that the average American lives to an age between 75 and 80. Less well known, apparently, is that life expectancy rises with age. At age 60, an American man can expect to reach 82; a woman, 85. That knowledge is called longevity literacy, and many of us don’t have it. In a 2022 survey by the insurer TIAA, one-quarter of Americans underestimated the life expectancy of a 60-year-old. Another 28 percent said they didn’t know it. Even among baby boomers, the youngest of whom are nearing 60, more than two-fifths of survey respondents either guessed low on longevity or punted on the question. “We were kind of shocked to get the data,” said Surya Kolluri, the head of TIAA Institute, which produced the report. Kolluri said he was particularly dismayed over the large share of respondents who could not answer the longevity question, which was multiple choice. “We gave them the answer and they still said, ‘Eh, I don’t know,’” he said. Confusion over human lifespan complicates the business of planning for retirement, a phase of life for which many Americans are already underprepared. More than two-fifths of baby boomers have no retirement savings, even as the postwar generation enters retirement years, census data show. The median boomer household held $134,000 in retirement savings in 2019, according to a NerdWallet analysis. By most accounts, even that figure is not nearly enough. Human longevity doesn’t stop rising at 60. An American who retires at 65 can expect to live to 85, according to Social Security projections.
Fentanyl Responsible For 80% Of Overdose Deaths Under 24 In US -Of the 296 million users of illegal drugs worldwide in 2021, 60 million were taking opioids like morphine, codeine or heroin.As Statista's Florian Zandt reports, according to the latest United Nations World Drug Report, only cannabis usage is more prevalent albeit, of course, not really resulting in overdose deaths.As he shows in the chart below, based on CDC data, synthetic opioids like fentanyl have become associated with the majority of overdose mortality.Out of the more than 106,000 registered cases of deaths by overdose in 2021, a little over 70,000 or two thirds were directly related to synthetic opioids, the most prevalent of which is fentanyl. The drug is said to be 50 times more potent than heroin and is easy and cheap to manufacture since it's not tied to a crop base like more traditional opioids like heroin.The picture gets even more dire in the teenage and young adult age bracket. Here, 80 percent of the 7,426 overdose deaths can be ascribed to synthetic opioids, with the connected cases increasing almost sixfold between 2015 and 2021.Globally, usage of opioids has been relatively stable since 2019, with reported users even going down from 62 million in the year before the coronavirus pandemic. The global prevalence percentage stood at 1.2 for 2021, with only three regions clocking in significantly higher at percentages of 3.3 (North America), 3.2 (Near and Middle East/South-West Asia) and 2.4 (Oceania).The further development of usage numbers might be impacted by whether the Taliban government in Afghanistan fully enforces its drug ban enacted in 2021. According to a special UN report, opium poppy farmers generated $1.4 billion in sales in 2022 with the current crop being largely exempt from the ban and the handling of future harvests uncertain. Experts now fear that drug users might turn to more readily available synthetic opioids if the supply from the Asian country dries up. Around 80 percent of global opiate users are supplied by products manufactured from the Afghan opium poppy.
Artificial intelligence better predicts death in pneumonia patients, study suggests A deep-learning (DL) model that analyzes the initial chest x-rays of patients who have community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) may predict the risk of death by 30 days more accurately than an established risk-prediction tool, finds a new study publishedin the American Journal of Roentgenology.For the study, a team led by Seoul National University Hospital researchers evaluated the ability of a DL model developed using 7,105 CAP patients at a single center from March 2013 to December 2019 to predict risk of all-cause death by 30 days.The team tested the model using the initial x-rays of emergency department (ED) patients at the same center as the development cohort from January to December 2020 (temporal test cohort, 947 patients), a second center (external test cohort A, 467) over the same period, and a third center (external test cohort B, 381) from March 2019 to October 2021.The results of the DL model and the established CURB-65 risk-prediction tool were compared, and the combination of the two tests was assessed using a logistic regression model.The area under the curve (AUC, a measure of diagnostic accuracy) for risk of death by 30 days was higher for the DL model than for CURB-65 in the temporal test cohort (0.77 vs 0.67), but the result wasn't statistically significant in external test cohort A (0.80 vs 0.73) or B (0.80 vs 0.72). The DL model showed higher specificity (range, 61% to 69% vs 44% to 58%) at the same sensitivity as the CURB-65 score in all three groups. Combined, the DL model and CURB-65 scores increased the AUC in the temporal cohort (0.77) and external cohort B (0.80) but the increase was not significant in cohort A (0.80). "The deep learning (DL) model may guide clinical decision-making in the management of patients with CAP by identifying high-risk patients who warrant hospitalization and intensive treatment," coauthor Eui Jin Hwang, MD, PhD, of Seoul National University, said in an American Roentgen Ray Society news release.
Maternal deaths in the US more than doubled over two decades. Black mothers died at the highest rate - Maternal deaths across the U.S. more than doubled over the course of two decades, and the tragedy unfolded unequally.Black mothers died at the nation’s highest rates, while the largest increases in deaths were found in American Indian and Native Alaskan mothers. And some states — and racial or ethnic groups within them – fared worse than others.The findings were laid out in a new study published Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Researchers looked at maternal deaths between 1999 and 2019 — but not the pandemic spike — for every state and five racial and ethnic groups. “It’s a call to action to all of us to understand the root causes — to understand that some of it is about health care and access to health care, but a lot of it is about structural racism and the policies and procedures and things that we have in place that may keep people from being healthy,” said Dr. Allison Bryant, one of the study’s authors and a senior medical director for health equity at Mass General Brigham. Among wealthy nations, the U.S. has the highest rate of maternal mortality, which is defined as a death during pregnancy or up to a year afterward. Common causes include excessive bleeding, infection, heart disease, suicide and drug overdose. Bryant and her colleagues at Mass General Brigham and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington started with national vital statistics data on deaths and live births. They then used a modeling process to estimate maternal mortality out of every 100,000 live births. Overall, they found rampant, widening disparities. The study showed high rates of maternal mortality aren’t confined to the South but also extend to regions like the Midwest and states such as Wyoming and Montana, which had high rates for multiple racial and ethnic groups in 2019. Researchers also found dramatic jumps when they compared maternal mortality in the first decade of the study to the second, and identified the five states with the largest increases between those decades. Those increases exceeded:
- — 162% for American Indian and Alaska Native mothers in Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Rhode Island and Wisconsin;
- — 135% for white mothers in Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Missouri and Tennessee;
- — 105% for Hispanic mothers in Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Tennessee;
- — 93% for Black mothers in Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, New Jersey and Texas;
- — 83% for Asian and Pacific Islander mothers in Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan and Missouri.
“I hate to say it, but I was not surprised by the findings. We’ve certainly seen enough anecdotal evidence in a single state or a group of states to suggest that maternal mortality is rising,” said Dr. Karen Joynt Maddox, a health services and policy researcher at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis who wasn’t involved in the study. “It’s certainly alarming, and just more evidence we have got to figure out what’s going on and try to find ways to do something about this.”
Ohio abortion rights backers submit nearly double needed signatures for fall ballot measure (AP) — Groups hoping to enshrine abortion rights in Ohio’s constitution delivered nearly double the number of signatures needed to place an amendment on the statewide ballot this fall, aiming to signal sweeping widespread support for an issue that still faces the threat of needing a significantly increased victory margin.Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights said they dropped off more than 700,000 petition signatures on Wednesday to Republican Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s office in downtown Columbus. LaRose now will work with local election boards to determine that at least 413,446 signatures are valid, which would get the proposal onto the Nov. 7 ballot.“Today, we take a huge step forward in the fight for abortion access and reproductive freedom for all, to ensure that Ohioans and their families can make their own health care decisions without government interference,” Lauren Blauvelt and Kellie Copeland of Ohioans for Reproductive Freedom, a coalition member, said in a statement.At a news conference, Copeland said the 422 boxes delivered “are filled with hope and love and dreams of freedom, of bodily autonomy, of health, of being able to say, ‘We decide what happens to us.’ ”The ballot measure calls for the establishment of “a fundamental right to reproductive freedom” with “reasonable limits.” In language similar to a constitutional amendment that Michigan voters approved in November, it would require restrictions imposed past a fetus’ viability outside the womb, which is typically around the 24th week of pregnancy and was the standard under Roe v. Wade, to be based on evidence of patient health and safety benefits.The state’s formidable anti-abortion network has vowed a dogged and well-funded opposition campaign, which could take the price tag for the fight above $70 million.Protect Women Ohio, the opposition campaign, downplayed the huge number of signatures submitted, saying they were collected with help from paid signature-gatherers funded in part of the American Civil Liberties Union, which it described as “anti-parent.” Abortion foes contend that the Ohio amendment has the potential to trump the state’s abortion-related parental consent law, though the lawyers who wrote it deny the claim.
People with medical needs are “left behind in pain” reveals new report --The World Health Organization (WHO) said in a new report that morphine is not distributed equally around the world, leaving millions of people to suffer from pain.“Leaving people in pain when effective medicines are available for pain management, especially in the context of end-of-life care, should be a cause of serious concern for policy-makers,” said Yukiko Nakatani, WHO assistant director general for medicines and health products, in a statement last month.The report found that more than 80 percent of morphine available worldwide was distributed in the Americas, mostly in North America. The median estimated defined daily dose (DDD) of morphine for high-income countries was 125.9 DDD per million people per day, while it was 24.9 for upper-middle-income countries, 6.7 for lower-middle-income nations and 2.0 DDD in low-income countries.Nakatani wrote in the report’s forward that opioid abuse and the lack of opioid access are becoming crises around the world. She wrote that “a lack of access to opioids such as morphine in many parts of the world means that millions of people continue to suffer preventable pain.”
Study: RSV pattern changed during COVID-19 pandemic - JAMA Health Forum has posted a new research letter showing how the seasonal pattern of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with interseasonal spikes occurring as soon as the summer of 2021. The research looked at four RSV seasons and identified infections in children younger than 2 years who required hospitalization for RSV between July 2017 and November 2022 using the Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS). Children at high risk for RSV are eligible for immunoprophylaxis administration during seasonal spikes, and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines recommend these children receive RSV monoclonal antibodies. Insurers typically cover RSV immunoprophylaxis annually (November-March) in accordance with RSV seasonality, so the authors of the study looked at RSV-related hospitalizations among high-risk children with RSV-immunoprophylaxis eligibility. High risk was defined as having hemodynamically significant congenital heart disease, chronic lung disease of prematurity, or less than 29 weeks' gestation, the authors said. A total of 109,185 RSV-related hospitalizations among 104,898 children (median age, 4.7 months; 45,931 girls [43.8%], 58,947 boys [56.2%]) were recorded, with seasonal spikes in 2017 and 2019 beginning in October. In May of 2021, however, a spike in RSV hospitalizations was noted after lockdown measures put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic were lifted. The 2020 seasonal transmission dynamics of the virus were likely due to school closures and masking. Beginning in May and June of 2021, 579 hospitalizations per month were recorded. "RSV season was continuous, with monthly hospitalizations larger than the interseasonal threshold. The 2021 to 2022 RSV season consisted of 45% of all hospitalizations over the study period," the authors said. "The RSV surge was missed by the time insurance covered RSV immunoprophylaxis. Many high-risk children could not receive RSV immunoprophylaxis during peak months."
More kids diagnosed with type 1 diabetes during COVID-19 --More kids were diagnosed as having type 1 diabetes after the COVID-19 pandemic began, and researchers have yet to determine the mechanism behind this increased incidence rate, the authors of a new meta-analysis said in JAMA Network Open today. "Our findings underscore the need to dedicate resources to supporting an acute increased need for pediatric and ultimately young adult diabetes care," the authors said. The review included 42 studies involving 102,984 youths, with studies published between January 2020 and March 2023. Studies needed to include least 12 months of observation in both the pandemic and the prepandemic periods to account for the prepandemic seasonality of diabetes incidence and changes in seasonality during the pandemic that differed between Europe and North America, the authors said. The primary outcome was a change in the incidence rate of pediatric diabetes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a second outcome was the incidence rate of DKA (diabetic ketoacidosis) among youths with new-onset diabetes during the pandemic. Overall, 75% of studies included for review showed an increase in the number of incident cases of type 1 diabetes during the first 12 months of the pandemic compared with the 12 months before the pandemic. The authors found a higher incidence rate during the first year of the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08 to 1.21). There was also an increased incidence of diabetes during months 13 to 24 of the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period (IRR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.37). That is a 16%, and 28% increased incidence rate, respectively. The unadjusted pooled IRR comparing the first year of the pandemic with the prepandemic period was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.16). Fifteen studies also reported DKA incidence and found a higher rate during the pandemic compared with before the pandemic (IRR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.36). "The magnitude of increase in the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes that we observed after the onset of the pandemic was greater than the expected 3% to 4% annual increase in the incidence rate based on prepandemic temporal trends in Europe," the authors said. While other studies have showed increases in pediatric type 2 diabetes diagnoses during the pandemic were likely linked to more sedentary lifestyles, and school and activity closures, there is no clear mechanism by which to explain how SARS-CoV-2 infections contribute to type 1 diabetes.
Studies add to picture of how COVID can affect the brain long term --New studies on SARS-CoV-2's neurologic effects describe how even mild infections can lead to neuropsychiatric conditions by altering brain structure and function and review possible mechanisms for viral passage through the blood-brain barrier.Even mild COVID-19 infections can alter brain structures and functions, leading to neuropsychiatric conditions such as anxiety, depression, fatigue, and sleepiness and undermining well-being, health, and the ability to work, according to studies presented last week at the ninth Brazilian Institute of Neuroscience and Neurotechnology (BRAINN) congress in Sao Paulo."Before the pandemic, Brazil was already considered one of the most anxious countries in the world, with 9% of the population reporting symptoms," Clarissa Yasuda, MD, PhD, of the State University of Campinas, the conference host, said in a press release. "Now we find higher levels of anxiety and depression in people who test positive for COVID-19."One study presented at the conference and published in an April 24 supplement of Neurology involved analysis of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of 254 patients conducted 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis.The scans revealed atrophy of the brain's gray matter and cerebral hyperconnectivity in patients with long COVID. While the significance and persistence of these changes are unknown, they suggest cognitive dysfunction associated with anxiety and depression, the authors said.Another study in the same journal issue involved analyzing answers to questionnaires completed by 607 bank workers with similar job descriptions and education an average of 200 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. Large percentages still reported memory problems (52%), fatigue (48%), and anxiety (38%)."The economic impact of these people’s health problems is evident, underscoring the urgent need for specific treatment to reduce the loss to both the individuals concerned and society as a whole," lead author Gabriel Monteiro Salvador said in the release.For a third, unpublished study described in the release, researchers developed a set of tests designed to measure muscle contraction and force, neuromuscular function, hand-muscle fatigability, and manual dexterity to better define the fatigue associated with long COVID.The findings suggested motor-skill impairment among long-COVID patients with fatigue, with abnormal motor-unit force-frequency relationships in reaction tasks, although reaction time was unaffected. Participants also underperformed with their dominant hand in the Nine-Hole Peg Test compared with controls.In Cell Death and Discovery last week, researchers from Shanghai Normal University and the University of Hong Kong reviewed the possible mechanisms of long COVID's effects on the brain.The researchers proposed three routes of SARS-CoV-2 brain invasion:
- The virus moves from the nasal cavity through the olfactory nerves to the olfactory bulb of the brain, where it enters sensory neurons.
- High concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in the respiratory tract cause damage that allows it to invade the blood and spread to multiple organs through overexpression of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE, which facilitates cell entry). The virus may cross the blood-brain barrier through ACE facilitation, disruption of the tight junctions of the blood-brain barrier, or traveling inside cells through the central nervous system.
- SARS-CoV-2 invades the brain through the eyes and optic nerve, although the authors noted that eyes don't generally show high viral loads.
COVID-19 inflammatory response not tied to long COVID --A post-infection inflammatory response has been a popular hypothesis used to explain long COVID, a condition defined as significant lingering COVID-19 symptoms present weeks and months following the initial infection.A new UK study, however, suggests that those suffering from severe long COVID symptoms did not have signs of higher cellular immune activation or pro-inflammatory cytokines after adjusting for age, sex, and disease severity. The results are published in the journal eLife.Previous studies estimate that as many as 8% to 21% of people with mild to severe COVID-19 will have long-COVID symptoms more than 12 weeks after their primary infection, with higher rates among those who required extensive medical treatment, including intensive care unit admission. In the new study, researchers looked at immune markers in blood samples from 63 patients hospitalized with mild, moderate or severe COVID-19 at the start of the pandemic, before vaccines were available. They analyzed 187 samples collected at 3, 8, and 12 months after hospitalization for myriad immune system markers. At 3 months post-hospitalization, blood samples of patients with severe COVID-19 showed increased levels of activated CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells and increased plasma levels of T-cell–related cytokines (interleukin [IL]-4, IL-7, IL-17, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha).Eighty percent of patients reported long COVID at 3 months post-hospitalization, with breathlessness and excessive fatigue being the most common symptoms. But by 12 months, T-cell activation and cytokine levels decreased and were comparable in patients with mild, moderate, and severe disease. The authors also found no direct association between long-COVID symptoms and immune inflammatory markers. "At 12 months post admission T-cell activation was similar and largely undetectable in patients with mild, moderate, and severe disease, suggesting that the differences we observe between patients at 3 months may not be driven by differences in T-cell activation already present in these patients prior to COVID-19," the authors concluded.
Increased antibiotic exposure linked to severe COVID-19 outcomes -- Repeated antibiotic exposure may be associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, British researchers reported this week in eClinical Medicine.To investigate whether frequent antibiotic exposure may be linked to COVID-19 severity, a team led by researchers from the University of Manchester conducted a matched case-control study of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 (the cases) and those with a COVID-19 diagnosis (the controls). Using 3 years of patient data prior to infection, the researchers created five quintile groups based on the number of prior antibiotic prescriptions and used conditional logistic regression to compare the difference between cases and controls.Overall, 2.47 million COVID-19 patients were identified from February 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021. Of those, 98,420 were hospitalized, and 22,600 hospitalized COVID-19 patients died within 30 days of admission.The researchers observed a dose-response relationship between the number of antibiotic prescriptions and the risk of severe outcomes. The case group had higher odds of receiving antibiotics than controls, and the risk rose with increased exposure. For the highest antibiotic exposure quintile, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) was 1.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75 to 1.84) for hospital admission and 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.41) for death compared with patients without antibiotic exposure.Larger number of prior antibiotic types was also associated with more severe COVID-19 outcome. The adjusted OR for those who received more than three antibiotic types in the previous 3 years was nearly double that of those who received only one antibiotic type (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.75 to 1.84 vs OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.05).The authors say that a possible explanation is that repeated antibiotic exposure may have disrupted the gut microbiota in ways that led to adverse events or increased risk of secondary bacterial infection."Given the known effects of antibiotics on the gut microbiome, it seems advisable to discourage the regular practice of indiscriminately prescribing antibiotics repeatedly and intermittently, given their uncertain benefits and likely risks," they wrote.
Report: No evidence bleach consumed to cure COVID-19 during pandemic -- A new report dispels accounts that Americans drank bleach to cure or prevent COVID-19, a practice even the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned against during the early months of the pandemic. The report was published yesterday in PLOS One.In June 2020 the CDC shared results from an online survey that showed 39% of Americans engaged in at least one cleaning practice not recommended by the CDC since April of 2020, with 4% of respondents saying they were drinking or gargling diluted bleach to prevent a COVID-19 infection. Those responses coupled with increased reports in calls to the CDC poison control center created a narrative that bleach drinking was occurring among worried Americans.The study authors surveyed 600 respondents during the summer of 2020 and applied several analyses that address multiple known characteristics of problematic respondent bias. The subsequent survey revealed "problematic respondents" made up 23.3% to 33.0% of CDC survey respondents."Across two studies with nearly 1,300 respondents, we replicated the CDC's findings showing that around 4% of respondents reported engaging in each of the three highly dangerous behaviors: drinking or gargling household cleaner, soapy water, and diluted bleach," the authors said. "However, we also observed that 3–7% of respondents reported having never used the Internet while taking the survey online and having suffered a fatal heart attack." After removing survey responses from all participants who provided inattentive, acquiescent, and careless answers, there was no evidence anyone drank cleaning products during the early months of the pandemic."Problematic survey respondents pose a fundamental challenge to all survey research and threaten the validity of public-health policy," the authors concluded. "To mitigate against these threats, researchers should rigorously check for problematic respondents, particularly when the survey aims to measure rare events."
Almost 1 in 4 people in the US hadn’t gotten COVID by the end of 2022: CDC -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that almost 1 out of 4 people in the U.S. still hadn’t been exposed to COVID-19 by the end of 2022 after nearly three years of the pandemic.In its final survey looking at the period between October and December 2022, the CDC estimated that about 77.5 percent of people had infection-induced antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.The CDC began conducting studies looking into seroprevalence, the presence of antibodies against a virus in someone’s blood, beginning in January 2022. The agency observed seroprevalence in three-month increments over the course of last year.Broken down by demographics, younger people — aged between 16 and 29 — had the highest percentage of natural antibodies at 87.1 percent, with this percentage decreasing among older groups.Across racial groups, Hispanic individuals had the highest rate of naturally induced antibodies at 80.6 percent. Black, white and other racial/ethnic groups all shared about the same rate of natural antibodies, around 77 percent.However, non-Hispanic Asians were found to have significantly lower rates of infection-induced antibodies than the others groups, with 66.1 percent found to have the antibodies. While the CDC did not provide an explanation for this, earlier data had found that Asians in the U.S. had generally lower infection rates.An analysis released by KFF last year found that Asians had the lowest cumulative infection rate among racial/ethnic groups from 2020 to 2022.While about 3 out of 4 people carried antibodies from natural infections, nearly all people — 96.7 percent — were found to have some form of COVID-19 antibodies in their systems due to vaccination, infection or a combination of both.The data needed for the CDC’s study was collected by looking at blood from roughly 143,000 donors within a three-month period.During the first quarter of 2022 about half of the U.S. had infection-induced antibodies in their blood. The CDC is not currently planning any more seroprevalence studies.While vaccines also induce the immune system to create antibodies against a virus, a difference between the types of antibodies can be detected through antibody testing, which the CDC previously said could be done for “clinical and public health purposes.”
New COVID-19 Variants Giving XBB.1.16, or ‘Arcturus,’ a Run for its Money - The so-called “arcturus” coronavirus strain is the most prominent variant circulating in the U.S., but several other omicron subvariants are increasing across the country. XBB.1.16, or arcturus, was responsible for more than 17% of new COVID-19 infections over the past two weeks, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It’s a slight increase from the previous two-week period, which CDC revised down to 16%. XBB.1.5, which will be the target of the fall COVID-19 vaccines, is not far behind at 16% of new infections in recent weeks. But other omicron subvariants are making inroads in the U.S., including EG.5 and XBB.2.3. Each strain was responsible for 13% of new infections over the last two weeks. The World Health Organization is monitoring XBB.2.3, which is also increasing globally. According to WHO, some countries are seeing a rise in COVID-19 cases. “Some countries have seen a recent rise in cases, driven by the [variants of interest] and some [variants under monitoring]. In some instances, the increase in cases has been accompanied by a rise in hospitalizations and deaths, although these are lower compared to previous waves,” the organization wrote in its weekly coronavirus report. “The observed heterogeneity in variant circulation dynamics, as well as the lower rate of morbidity and mortality, can partly be attributed to population immunity resulting from vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infections,” it continued. Coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations in the U.S. remain on the decline. The vast majority of the U.S. has some level of protection against the virus through vaccination, infection or both. At the end of 2022, nearly 97% of Americans had some level of protection against COVID-19, according to CDC estimates.
Most US COVID-19 markers decline further - COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline, with levels down 5.9% and 9.1%, respectively, over the past week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its latest data update.The measures that CDC uses as early markers, however, rose slightly. Emergency department visits for COVID were up 2% from a week ago, and test positivity rose by 0.4%. Hospitalization levels were high in only a few counties, two in southern Texas and two in central Montana. Test positivity was slightly higher in south-central, southwestern, and western states, as well as in New York.Also, the CDC today updated its variant proportions, showing that levels of the Omicron XBB.1.5 subvariant continued to decline over the past 2 weeks, dropping from 26.3% to 16.1%. Meanwhile, proportions of a handful of other subvariants rose, including XBB.1.16, XBB.2.3, XBB.1.16.1, XBB.1.16.6, and EG.5.
COVID-19 hospital markers up in a few reporting countries - Some countries continue to report high COVID-19 burdens, based on markers that include cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today in its latest weeklyupdate. The agency has said tracking COVID trends remains challenging, since a declining number of countries regularly report cases, with hospitalizations and deaths becoming more reliable indicators.At the regional level, Africa reported a rise in COVID deaths, though fatalities have been at a relatively low baseline.Of 19 countries that regularly report hospitalizations, 2 reported rises of 20% or more during the current 28-day reporting period: Bangladesh and Malta. Of 16 countries that regularly report intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 2 reported rises of 20% or more, Lithuania and Mexico.In its variant proportion update, the WHO said Omicron XBB.1.5 levels continue to decline steadily, falling from 30.1% to 16.3% of sequences over the past month. Meanwhile, XBB.1.16 levels continue to rise, up from 18.1% to 21.2% over the reporting period. The WHO said proportions vary by region, with XBB.1.5 dominant in the Americas and XBB.1.16 most common in Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Western Pacific. Of the other subvariants that the WHO monitors, only three increased: XBB, XBB.1.9.2, and XBB.2.3.
Study finds strong link between pandemic preparedness and fewer COVID deaths - The pandemic was less deadly in countries that rank higher in preparedness, according to new study findings, which counter the perception that the countries with the best capacities fared worst during the heat of the battle with COVID-19. Researchers also dug into how well countries used their tools, a factor that hampered outcomes in the United States. The team from Brown University School of Public Health, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) detailed their findings yesterday in BMJ Global Health. The group's new findings are part of national and global efforts to examine COVID responses and retool response plans, based on lessons learned about what went wrong—and what went well.In a unique aspect of the study, the group examined "comparative mortality ratios" and adjusted for age-related demographics, which the authors said can distort national death rates. For example, countries with older populations typically have higher baseline mortality rates. Higher levels of pandemic preparedness capacity correlated significantly with lower excess COVID deaths. Researchers said the findings correct earlier observations that countries that scored high in pandemic preparedness measures had some of the worst COVID outcomes, along with the highest COVID death rates.Still, the United States stood out as an outlier. Though it scored highest in the preparedness index, 62 countries had lower comparative mortality ratios.In examining why, the researchers found that the United States had a relatively low score on a measure that the GSI Index calls the "risk environment," which measures how well countries develop and implement timely and effective response actions.The deficiencies in the United States on that measure resulted in a disorganized COVID-19 response that was hamstrung by different measures in different states, rules that slowed the rollout of testing equipment, and inconsistent messaging that undermined the public's compliance with control measures such as social distancing and vaccination.
Global infectious disease burden shifting from younger to older youth --The global focus on lowering rates of infectious disease among preschool children must broaden to those older than 5 years, who carry an increasing burden, concludes a large new study in The Lancet. In November 2021, the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Child and Adolescent Communicable Disease Collaborators analyzed rates of common diseases and conditions among youth and young adults aged 0 to 24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.The global focus on lowering rates of infectious disease among preschool children must broaden to those older than 5 years, who carry an increasing burden, concludes a large newstudy in The Lancet.In 2019, 30 million youth around the world died of infectious diseases, and 30 million years of healthy life were lost to disability, equivalent to 288.4 million disability-adjusted life-years and 57.3% of the world's total communicable disease burden.While children younger than 5 years accounted for most of the infectious disease burden in 2019, older children and adolescents have been increasingly affected, primarily owing to large public health gains in the younger group and less progress elsewhere. In 1990, 85% of the communicable disease burden was in the younger-than-5 group, falling to 75% by 2019.The highest proportion of infectious diseases and deaths was located mainly in poorer countries, although middle- and high-income countries also carry considerable burdens (4 million years lived with disability in 2019).Intestinal disease (diarrhea), lower respiratory-tract infections (pneumonia), and malaria made up 59.8% of global communicable diseases among youth, with tuberculosis and HIV becoming important causes in adolescents. HIV was the only cause of disease that rose over time, especially among females and older children and adolescents.
Researchers create test to detect SARS-CoV-2 in any animal species --A team led by University of Illinois researchers has developed a test they say can detect SARS-CoV-2 in any species of wild or domesticated animal.Their research, published today in mSphere, details the development and validation of their monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based blocking enzyme-linked immunoassay (bELISA) test, which the study authors say is a useful tool for identifying potential new animal reservoirs to prevent future coronavirus outbreaks.Most antibody tests are designed for humans and rely on special species-specific chemical reagents, most of which aren't commercially available, impeding pan-species research. But this one detects antibodies against the virus's N-protein, which is consistent across species, making it a better target than the membrane-bound viral proteins usually used in these tests."The N-protein is more abundant and it is more conserved than the proteins used in most tests," lead author Ying Fang, PhD, said in a University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign news release.In addition to humans, SARS-CoV-2 has been known to infect cats, dogs, deer, mink, lions, snow leopards, and tigers. "These findings cause great concerns on the potential for human to animal and animal to human transmission, along with the appearance of viral mutations as the virus spillover between species," the authors wrote.
Early analysis of H5N1 avian flu in Polish cats hints at single source An initial analysis today from Poland's National Veterinary Institute of nine viruses from cats infected with H5N1 avian influenza suggests they are related to viruses found in the country's poultry and wild birds, according to a statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. Thesicknesses and deaths in cats have been reported from a wide geographic area, with some noted in indoor cats, making the source of the virus unclear.The report said the viruses belong to the same genotype and are most closely related to a sample collected in June from a white stork. The genotype was seen during the peak of the 2022-23 season and was detected mainly in poultry in Wielkopolska province and in wild birds in multiple parts of Poland.The report didn't note any mutations that may make the virus more adapted to mammals. Scientists noted that the feline H5N1 viruses they have examined so far came from a single unidentified source and that more detailed genetic analysis is under way to better gauge the zoonotic potential. In other avian flu developments, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently updated its technical information on H5N1, which covers the latest sporadic infections in humans and outbreaks in wild birds, poultry, and other animals. (The document, dated June 30, doesn't include information on the H5N1 detections in Polish cats.) The CDC said the H5N1 viruses currently circulating in wild birds and poultry don't have the ability to easily bind to human upper-airway tract receptors. Though outbreaks in US poultry flocks have declined substantially over spring and summer, the H5N1 strain continues to circulate in wild birds, posing an ongoing transmission threat that requires close monitoring.Regarding H5N1 in mammals, the CDC said data suggest the virus may evolve to replicate more efficiently in the respiratory tract, but so far the changes haven't been linked to increased transmissibility in humans.
Quick takes: More malaria in Florida, polio in Africa, avian flu in dogs and cat in Italy | CIDRAP
- The Florida Department of Health reported two more local malaria infections, raising its total to six, according to its latest surveillance report, which covers data for the week ending July 1. Both of the new cases were in Sarasota County, the same location as the previous four cases.
- Three African nations reported more polio cases this week, all involving vaccine-derived types, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative said in its weekly update. Burkina Faso reported its first circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) case of the year, which was in Gaoua. Chad reported 2 more cVDPV2 cases in different locations, putting its total for the year at 10. And Nigeria reported 6 more such cases from four different areas, raising its 2023 total to 16.
- Italy's health ministry yesterday reported that serology tests on dogs and one cat at a poultry farm in Brescia, located in northern Italy's Lombardy region, revealed that they likely experienced mild H5N1 avian flu, according to a statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. The farm had experienced an H5N1 outbreak. Officials also said an analysis of the virus that infected the poultry found it was most similar to a virus found recently in gulls in northern Italy and that it had a mutation in the PB2 gene that suggests it may be more adapted to mammals.
Oklahoma confirms second CWD-positive wild deer --A month after Oklahoma reported its first case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in a wild deer, another white-taileddeer has tested positive, this time in Woodward County.Earlier this week, the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation (ODWC) said a landowner reported the wild deer behaving abnormally on his property about 15 miles east of Woodward.The state's first case of CWD in a wild deer was identified in Texas County, in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Woodward County is located east of Texas County, in the northwestern part of the state and just east of the Panhandle. Identification of the first case prompted the ODWC and the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry to activate the next stage of their CWD response strategy."We will be working through our response plan implementing surveillance efforts and steps to monitor and slow the potential spread of this disease," Jerry Shaw, ODWC wildlife programs supervisor, said in a statement. "Our ultimate goal is to ensure healthy and well-managed deer with as little impact to either the resource or our constituents as possible."CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease caused by infectious prions, or misfolded proteins, that affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. The disease creates cavities in the brain that resemble those of sponges. While CWD isn't known to infect humans, some experts fear it could jump species.
WHO expected to declare aspartame possible cancer risk - The World Health Organization is expected to declare the artificial sweetener, Aspartame, a possible cancer risk. According to multiple reports, including Reuters, aspartame, which is used in Coca-Cola Diet sodas, processed cookies, gum, and other products, will be listed as "possibly carcinogenic to humans." "There's three levels that the World Health Organization uses when it talks about carcinogens. possible carcinogen is the lowest level, and that's what we're talking about here. the next is probable. And then the last one is a carcinogen," said Doctor John Whyte, Chief Medical Officer, Web MD. The International Agency for Research on Cancer, which is part of the WHO is responsible for assessing whether or not a product is a potential hazard for human consumption based on published evidence. Although it doesn't take into account how much of the product a person can safely consume, in the past it has led to public concern pressuring manufacturers to change recipes. "Aspartame is a non-nutritive chemical sweetener that has zero calories and zero effect on blood sugar. And for that reason, it is often a very popular choice for boomers who are trying to watch calorie intake, watch blood sugar levels," says Lisa Moskovitz, a registered dietitian and author of The Core 3 Healthy Eating Plan. The artificial sweetener has been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for use in food products. It's been around since 1981. "The FDA has continued to say that aspartame is safe now, I’m also interested to hear what the American Cancer Society says as well in terms of is this a possible carcinogen, and they have not said that it is, so I don't want folks to panic," said Dr. Whyte. This is a preliminary report, the full report is expected to be released by the World Health Organization in July. "There have been studies in the past showing possible links to cancer. a lot of those studies are done around rats, rodents, and mice so, there is not a lot of human studies," said Moskovitz.
Study says drinking water from nearly half of US faucets contains potentially harmful chemicals (AP) — Drinking water from nearly half of U.S. faucets likely contains “forever chemicals” that may cause cancer and other health problems, according to a government study released Wednesday. The synthetic compounds known collectively as PFAS are contaminating drinking water to varying extents in large cities and small towns — and in private wells and public systems, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Researchers described the study as the first nationwide effort to test for PFAS in tap water from private sources in addition to regulated ones. It builds on previous scientific findings that the chemicals are widespread, showing up in consumer products as diverse as nonstick pans, food packaging and water-resistant clothing and making their way into water supplies. Because the USGS is a scientific research agency, the report makes no policy recommendations. But the information “can be used to evaluate risk of exposure and inform decisions about whether or not you want to treat your drinking water, get it tested or get more information from your state” about the situation locally, said lead author Kelly Smalling, a research hydrologist. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in March proposed the first federal drinking water limits on six forms of PFAS, or per- and polyfluorinated substances, which remain in the human body for years and don’t degrade in the environment. A final decision is expected later this year or in 2024. But the government hasn’t prohibited companies using the chemicals from dumping them into public wastewater systems, said Scott Faber, a senior vice president of the Environmental Working Group, an advocacy organization. “We should be treating this problem where it begins, instead of putting up a stoplight after the accident,” he said. “We should be requiring polluters to treat their own wastes.” Studies of lab animals have found potential links between PFAS chemicals and some cancers, including kidney and testicular, plus issues such as high blood pressure and low birth weight.
EPA: Cleaning product chemical poses cancer threats - EPA has found that a dangerous chemical prevalent in drinking water poses more risks than previously determined, including outsize cancer threats.The agency announced Friday that it has broadened its scope for 1,4-dioxane, a likely carcinogen that can crop up in shampoos and cleaning products, to include air and water exposures on the general population — an addition to the risk evaluation completed under the Trump administration that centered on work-related exposures.According to a draft supplement, 1,4-dioxane is estimated to pose a cancer risk “higher than 1 in 1 million for a range of general population exposure scenarios, including to fenceline communities, associated with drinking water sourced downstream of release sites and for air within 1 km of releasing facilities.”The findings offer a grim assessment of the chemical’s threat to the public beyond what regulators had previously concluded.The 1,4-dioxane draft assessment has been one of the most anticipated chemical reviews from the Biden administration after regulators decided to reopen a number of finalized decisions made under former President Donald Trump.During the prior administration, EPA faced an onslaught of criticism over close ties to industry and moves to downplay the risks associated with a range of toxic substances.Advocates aimed particular ire at the agency’s moves under the overhauled Toxic Substances Control Act, including reviews for the first 10 chemicals deemed to be of the greatest regulatory importance due to public health concerns.The 1,4-dioxane assessment proved especially thorny, with EPA determining that the solvent, despite its carcinogenic threat, ultimately posed no threat to the public or the environment.That conclusion drew heated legal fire, with environmental groups suing over the determination and a coalition of 14 states and two cities later launching their own litigation. New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) has been particularly emphatic on the issue, due to the state’s ongoing struggles with 1,4-dioxane contamination.The chemical often appears as a byproduct during manufacturing processes, which can lead to its presence in items like soap.
House Republicans come for EPA agents' guns - House Republicans are once again angling to get rid of EPA enforcement officers’ firearms.Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) has offered legislation — H.R. 4416, the “No Funds for Armed Regulators Act of 2023” — that would eliminate funding for armed law enforcement agents at the federal government’s premier environmental agency as well as the IRS and Department of Labor.The bill represents the GOP’s latest attempt to strip EPA of its guns, a recurring target for the party’s lawmakers that stretches back across administrations.“There was a pretty extreme edge to the regulatory enforcement agents that interacted with my constituents, especially in rural areas,” Higgins said in an interview with E&E News. “I was surprised to find that these regulatory agencies had armed police officers rolling up into my constituents’ properties to enforce their regulations.”EPA’s Criminal Investigation Division is the agency’s law enforcement branch. Its special agents are authorized to carry weapons and make arrests for offenses against environmental laws, an EPA spokesperson said.“The authority for EPA special agents to carry weapons has garnered long-standing and broad bipartisan support,” the agency spokesperson said. “Our agents carry weapons as a critically important public safety measure, for the safety of the agents themselves, and for EPA’s ability to effectively enforce environmental laws.”Higgins introduced the bill on June 30. Seven House Republicans have signed on as co-sponsors so far, according to congressional records. While EPA, IRS and Labor are the three targeted agencies, Higgins said the bill was written to be easily amended through the committee process.The legislation says no federal funds can be used to hire or retain “armed Federal regulatory enforcement officers” at those agencies. The bill defines those officers as individuals hired to enforce laws and regulations “through any tactical means, including use of force or weapons.”
How does EPA define 'unrecyclable' plastic? It doesn't. - The Biden administration has set out to answer a question that plagues many Americans: Which plastics are not recyclable? The answer depends on who you ask — and clearing up confusion around the issue could be key to boosting the nation’s very low recycling rates. More than 300 million tons of plastic are produced every year, and only about 9 percent gets recycled. That’s in part because recyclability depends on many variables, including type, size, color, density and locality. In April, EPA published its draft national strategy to prevent plastic pollution, which includes plans to solve recyclability confusion by creating a list of “single-use, unrecyclable, difficult to recycle, or frequently littered plastic products.” As part of that strategy, the agency would encourage companies to stop production of and consumers to reduce use of unrecyclable products. Before starting work on the list, EPA “will need to first consider a definition” for unrecyclable, a term that is currently undefined, EPA spokesperson Tim Carroll said in an email. Carroll referenced an EPA comment urging the Federal Trade Commission to include in its updated “Green Guides” that plastic products should only be marked as recyclable if they have strong end markets already in existence. Plastics producers have invested heavily in developing technologies for those end markets, including a controversial process called “chemical”, or “advanced”, recycling that can turn discarded plastics into fuels or other plastic products. EPA recently rebuffed the industry’s “recycling” label for those processes, declaring in its draft national strategy that “the Agency does not consider activities that convert non-hazardous solid waste to fuels or fuel substitutes (‘plastics-to-fuel’) or for energy production to be ‘recycling’ activities.” Many scientists and environmentalists warn against chemical recycling, saying the process itself releases toxic chemicals and creates harmful air pollutants that contribute to climate change.
Dead fish surface off Singapore's Raffles Marina after drop in water quality due to Tuas chemical facility fire - Dead fish were found floating in the sea off Raffles Marina after a drop in water quality due to a blaze in a chemical storage facility in Tuas. In photos on a Facebook page called Complaint Singapore Unlimited, which were first shared on Wednesday, the waters off the marina appear black or brown. Chinese daily Lianhe Zaobao on Friday published photos showing large numbers of dead fish in the seas off Raffles Marina, which is a country club located in Tuas West Drive. Workers can be seen cleaning up as well. In response to media queries, the National Environment Agency (NEA) said it is analysing samples of “pungent brown water” in a canal near Tuas West Drive, which discharges into the sea. The source of the brown water has been traced to run-off waters from fighting a fire in the area at 132 Pioneer Road on Wednesday morning, NEA added. The fire that wrecked an industrial building owned by chemical wholesaler Megachem was brought under control about four hours after the Singapore Civil Defence Force was notified at 2am. Megachem sells and distributes speciality chemicals to companies in the oil and gas, semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries. A Raffles Marina spokesman said the club alerted the authorities about an oil slick in its waters after noticing it at about 8am on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, the dead fish appeared, along with a lingering chemical odour, she said. On Friday afternoon, nearly all the fish and oil slick around the marina was cleared, she added, but the club is unable to determine the total cost of the clean-up because it is still underway. Mr Wade Pearce, who founded the Singapore Marine Guide platform for the leisure marine and boating industry, called the incident “absolutely disastrous to the boating community”. He said: “At present, everything in the water is dying or dead, (there is an) unbearable smell, fishing charters cancelling, boats deciding to leave the marina or not arrive. “The potential long term impact is unknown until the chemical reports come back but every part of the boat should be inspected as the chemical may damage the engine, generator, aircon, water maker, paint, even the fibreglass.” If the chemical is harmful, he estimated that thousands would need to be spent by owners whose boats are berthed in Raffles Marina. Ms Sue Ye, founder of non-profit group Marine Steward, said members had alerted the group to the impact of the incident. She said: “A lot of dead fish had floated to the surface after the incident. The pollution would affect wildlife in the area, including fish, turtles, other marine animals, as well as animals up the food chain. “Fishing activities would be affected as well as anglers would likely avoid the polluted areas, where the fish may be sick.” Mr Kua Kay Yaw, former chairman of the marine conservation group in Nature Society (Singapore), said the floating brown fluid in photos could be petrochemical residue resulting from the fire. “Oily chemicals can also prevent oxygen from dissolving in water, thus reducing the available oxygen for marine life, while others can coat the gills of the fish, resulting in suffocation,” he said. Mr Kua also recommended that fire emergency response plans include procedures for containing chemicals to prevent any impacts to the marine environment in the future. National water agency PUB said operations at the desalination plants in the area have not been affected by the discharge. “We have not detected abnormalities in the seawater intake since the fire,” said PUB. (AP) — Drinking water from nearly half of U.S. faucets likely contains “forever chemicals” that may cause cancer and other health problems, according to a government study released Wednesday. The synthetic compounds known collectively as PFAS are contaminating drinking water to varying extents in large cities and small towns — and in private wells and public systems, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Researchers described the study as the first nationwide effort to test for PFAS in tap water from private sources in addition to regulated ones. It builds on previous scientific findings that the chemicals are widespread, showing up in consumer products as diverse as nonstick pans, food packaging and water-resistant clothing and making their way into water supplies. Because the USGS is a scientific research agency, the report makes no policy recommendations. But the information “can be used to evaluate risk of exposure and inform decisions about whether or not you want to treat your drinking water, get it tested or get more information from your state” about the situation locally, said lead author Kelly Smalling, a research hydrologist. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in March proposed the first federal drinking water limits on six forms of PFAS, or per- and polyfluorinated substances, which remain in the human body for years and don’t degrade in the environment. A final decision is expected later this year or in 2024. But the government hasn’t prohibited companies using the chemicals from dumping them into public wastewater systems, said Scott Faber, a senior vice president of the Environmental Working Group, an advocacy organization. “We should be treating this problem where it begins, instead of putting up a stoplight after the accident,” he said. “We should be requiring polluters to treat their own wastes.” Studies of lab animals have found potential links between PFAS chemicals and some cancers, including kidney and testicular, plus issues such as high blood pressure and low birth weight.
Ohio governor asks Biden to declare a disaster over East Palestine train derailment --Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) has asked President Biden to declare a major presidential disaster for the train derailment in East Palestine earlier this year, which resulted in toxic chemicals spewing from several box cars.In a letter sent on Monday, DeWine told Biden that the declaration “is needed to ensure that the State and Federal government use all resources available to step in and provide the community with needed assistance.”The Republican governor added that currently “no unmet needs have been reported” due to the voluntary assistance from rail operator Norfolk Southern, noting that there is a possibility that the voluntary assistance provided by the rail operator could cease in the future.According to CNN, Norfolk Southern has reimbursed citizens and local governments for costs related to the incident.“I have determined that this incident is of such severity and magnitude that effective response is beyond the capabilities of the State and the affected local governments, and that supplementary federal assistance is necessary,” DeWine wrote in his letter.DeWine also noted in his letter a summary of the effects of the train derailment, noting how residents continue to report medical conditions and concerns about the air quality in the area.The letter comes months after a train carrying toxic chemicals derailed near the Pennsylvania state line, causing a massive fire and prompting authorities to evacuate about half of the 4,800 residents in the surrounding area, which included the village of East Palestine.Norfolk Southern said some of the rail cars were carrying hazardous materials including vinyl chloride, combustible liquids, butyl acrylate, benzene residue, and other nonhazardous materials.The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) announced that it will launch a special investigation into the company, adding that it had sent officials to investigate at least five different “significant accidents” involving the company since 2021.
Norfolk Southern says other companies should share blame in fiery Ohio derailment (AP) — Norfolk Southern says the owner of the rail car that caused the fiery Ohio derailment in February failed to properly maintain it in the years before the crash, and the railroad wants to make sure that company and the owners of the other cars involved help pay for the costs. The railroad filed a complaint Friday against all the car owners and shippers connected to the hazardous chemicals that spilled in the Feb. 3 derailment. As part of that, Norfolk Southern said GATX didn’t follow the car manufacturer’s recommendations for taking care of the plastic pellet car that has been blamed for the derailment. The National Transportation Safety Board said in its preliminary report that the likely cause of the crash was a bearing on that car overheated. Its final report detailing everything that contributed won’t be done until at least next year. The derailment forced thousands of people to evacuate their homes near the Ohio-Pennsylvania border and sent a towering plume of black smoke over the town of East Palestine The railroad said everyone involved in shipping hazardous chemicals bears some responsibility under federal regulations in making sure they get to their destination safely. Norfolk Southern, like most railroads, doesn’t actually own most of the cars it hauls, and it said the car owner and shippers are responsible for maintaining them even though railroad workers inspect and repair them along the way if they find defects. The problem Norfolk Southern identified with the plastic pellet car is that it sat idle for more than a year and a half in 2017 and 2018 and again for more than six months in 2018 and 2019. The manufacturer says railcars need to be moved at least one car length ever six months to keep the grease on the bearings from degrading, which can happen over long periods of time or during extreme weather. The railroad said the car was based on the Gulf Coast near New Orleans, which experiences hurricanes and flooding. But GATX leases its railcars to companies that use them to ship their products, so it may not have even had control over the car at the time. The NTSB pointed out in documents released as part of its investigative hearing that the railroad doesn’t track car movements within its railyards, so it also may not be clear whether this car wasn’t moved when it wasn’t in use. GATX said in a statement that “throughout our 125-year history, the safety of our employees, our customers, our environment and the communities in which we operate has always been our highest priority. We will vigorously defend the company against baseless claims made by Norfolk Southern.”
Tijuana, reliant on the Colorado River, faces a water crisis (AP) — Luis Ramirez leapt onto the roof of his bright blue water truck to fill the plastic tank that by day’s end would empty into an assortment of buckets, barrels and cisterns in 100 homes. It was barely 11 a.m. and Ramirez had many more stops to make on the hilly, grey fringes of Tijuana, a sprawling, industrial border city in northwestern Mexico where trucks or “pipas” like Ramirez’s provide the only drinking water for many people. “Each time, it gets farther and farther where we have to go,” he said, blaming the city’s water problems on drought and population growth, before jumping into the driver’s seat next to 16-year-old assistant Daniel Alvarez. Among the last cities downstream to receive water from the shrinking Colorado River, Tijuana is staring down a water crisis driven also by aging, inefficient infrastructure and successive governments that have done little to prepare the city for diminishing water in the region. Entire neighborhoods on Tijuana’s hilly and sometimes grassy far reaches remain unconnected to the city’s water mains and pipes. Accessing water there is a daily struggle — and an expensive one, as trucked-in water usually costs much more than what people connected to the city pay. Taxi driver Aurelio Hernandez lives in one of roughly 150 houses in a remote development near vast industrial parks that make aviation parts in the city’s south. Dirt roads so steep they seem vertical lead to the village. “It is the biggest problem we have,” said Hernandez, who has lived in Rancho el Chicote for 20 years, about the lack of running water. Hernandez, his wife and two daughters use about 1,585 gallons (6,000 liters) of trucked-in water per month, he said, which costs about 2,000 pesos or $116. The average U.S. family uses more than five times as much water each month, according to the Environmental Protection Agency, yet pays less, despite Mexico’s much lower wages. Even in middle class neighborhoods, like homemaker Martha Muñoz’s in Tijuana’s fast-growing south, neighbors have to share updates on WhatsApp about possible shutoffs and coordinate requests to city authorities when it’s cut. “The state government is trying to bring some relief, but it will take time,” Muñoz said. “Meanwhile, it’s really hard every time there’s a burst pipe, because they leave us without water for five days.” That’s what happened in April, when upwards of 600 neighborhoods — more than half of the whole city — went without water while the state water utility known as CESPT in Spanish, repaired leaks in a primary main. For some, that shutoff lasted days longer than the official 36-hour estimate. Authorities admitted that given the size of the area affected, they could not send water trucks to many neighborhoods.
Proposed water licensing regulations place tenuous food security at further risk - Cape Business News - THE Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) recently published draft revised Regulations regarding the Procedural Requirements for Water Use Licence Applications and Amendments for comment. According to the draft regulations, certain enterprises applying for water use licenses to take or store water; will in the future have to allocate shares of up to 75% to black South Africans in order for such water use licenses to be granted. The consequences for food security and the sustainability of the agricultural sector should these regulations be passed in the current form cannot be understated – they would have a devastating impact on the sector and its ability to provide the country with a secure supply of food. This is because focussing solely on ownership, to the exclusion of all other relevant factors, will mean the loss (or partial loss) of water resources for numerous currently viable commercial farming enterprises. Similar requirements are also prescribed in the draft with respect to so-called “stream flow reduction activities” (essentially commercial forestry plantations). The regulations also make provision for hydraulic fracturing (which is a further risk and threat to food security). The prescribed minimum black South African shareholding requirements of 25%, 50%, or 75%, required for a water use license to succeed depends on the volume of water abstracted or stored, or the area covered (in the case of commercial forest plantations). The proposed regulations are seen as the DWS’s most radical and sweeping effort to date toward changing the demographics with respect to water use in South Africa. The agricultural and forestry sectors appear to be the primary target of the proposed regulations. The agricultural sector accounts for approximately 60% of South Africa’s total water use. It is worth noting that the proposed regulations exempt mining companies, the state and state-owned entities, as well as 100% black-owned entities. “Agri SA is of the view that the proposed regulations will have a devastating effect on South Africa’s commercial agricultural sector if adopted in their current form,” says Janse Rabie, Legal and Policy Executive at Agri SA. “It is well known that the DWS envisages compulsory licensing of existing lawful water uses in the near future (a fact which is emphasised by regulation 13 of the proposed regulations). By far the greatest numbers of agricultural water uses are exercised in terms of historic existing lawful water uses.” Of concern, the draft regulations would seem to be attempting to replace the current suite of considerations which apply to granting water licenses with ownership demographics. In terms of section 27 of the National Water Act, the DWS must take all relevant factors into account when issuing a water use license. This already includes the need to redress the results of past racial and gender discrimination. “Section 27 of the National Water Act however also contains at least 10 other considerations that the DWS (as being the responsible authority for granting water use licenses) needs to consider before granting any application for a water use license. What the proposed regulations seek to achieve is to make BBBEE the sole consideration for granting licenses,” says Rabie. The Supreme Court of Appeal dealt with this issue in 2012 in a matter supported at the time by Agri SA. “In the so-called Goede Wellington case, the SCA specifically stated that all the relevant factors contained in section 27 of the National Water Act had to be considered together in deciding whether to grant an application for a water use license. These include factors such as efficient and beneficial use of water in the public interest, socio-economic impact, and investments already made by a water user in respect of the water use in question.” These considerations remain important and are especially so when considering the foundational role played by the sector in terms of food security, employment as well as the very significant headwinds farmers are currently facing. Water is the most vital input for the sector and if farmers lose the lawful use of this input, the impact will be catastrophic.
Haze, heat and storms are bringing danger and discomfort to many parts of the US (AP) — Smoky haze, hot weather and powerful storms brought dangerous and uncomfortable conditions to parts of the U.S. heading into a long July Fourth weekend that typically draws Americans to outdoor gatherings.From heat waves in the South and West to unhealthy air quality in the Northeast, much of the U.S. was under the threat of extreme weather. In the Midwest, some residents Friday were recovering from a powerful storm that moved through Illinois and Indiana a day earlier packing winds that reached more than 70 miles per hour (112 kilometers per hour). That storm damaged trees and buildings in the central parts of both states from the Mississippi River to the Indianapolis area. Crews worked to replace electrical lines entangled in downed trees ahead of more expected thunderstorms and temperatures climbing to around 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius). Utility companies reported that more than 250,000 homes and businesses were still without electricity.Brian Alexander, 55, swept up debris from the front yard of his Springfield, Illinois, home. Tree limbs that fell on his car left several small dents.“Very lucky on that,” Alexander said. “No power, but we’ll manage. We’re just waiting for the city to get us hooked up again and we’ll get everything cleaned up.”The National Weather Service said the storm was a derecho, which is often described as an inland hurricane because of its line of strong winds stretching for hundreds of miles.“We had damage all the way from northeast Kansas, all the way down into Kentucky and across Indiana,” said John Bumgardner, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Illinois.In the South, a dangerous heat wave that has been blamed for the deaths of at least 14 people was expected to last into the weekend in some areas. Parts of Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi were under excessive heat warnings Friday as heat indexes rose above 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius) in some places.In Memphis, Tennessee, officials said relief efforts were focused on the thousands of people who still had no power after storms Sunday that knocked down trees and power lines. In Nashville, residents and tourists alike tried to keep comfortable as temperatures climbed toward the upper 90s.
Bad air quality may be having a negative impact on your mental health - Breathing in the yellow haze of wildfire smoke is not only bad for your lungs, it can harm your mind, too. In recent years research has begun to link air pollution with poor mental health, from depression and anxiety to psychotic breakdowns and, in kids, ADHD symptoms. And while most studies have focused on urban pollution, many of the same toxic chemicals in city air can also be found in wildfire smoke — and often in far larger quantities. “Because it involves inefficient combustion of wood, leaves and soil, wildfire smoke contains just an enormous number of chemicals. In many ways, breathing wildfire smoke is similar to smoking unfiltered cigarettes,” says Paul Wennberg, atmospheric chemist at California Institute of Technology. One thing you are likely to breathe in with both noxious urban air and wildfire smoke is nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a harmful gas that can also react with other compounds in the air to produce secondary pollutants, such as ozone. Then, there are the fine particles found in pollution and smoke: larger ones, called PM10, and finer ones, PM2.5. All of these compounds have been found to negatively affect mental health.A study published this year in JAMA showed, for example, that across the United States, the more people are exposed to ozone, the higher their risk of developing depression. A British study, meanwhile, showed that people who routinely breathe air with PM2.5 levels of at least 10.6 micrograms per cubic meter have 15 percent higher risk of depression than those who live in areas with less than 9.3 micrograms of that pollutant per cubic meter. To put these numbers into perspective, during the recent Canadian wildfire haze, the air in New York City on June 7 had PM2.5 levels of 196 micrograms per cubic meter. “It is possible, even likely, that there is a dose-response, with longer exposure to air pollution increasing the chances of depression. However, even acute, short-term exposure to air pollution may be detrimental,” says John Ioannidis, epidemiologist at Stanford University. As for anxiety, a recent study in China found that young people living in areas with the highest fine particle pollution have a 29 percent higher risk of anxiety than those residing in the cleanest locations. By comparison, according to the World Health Organization, the first year of the pandemic sent anxiety levels up worldwide by 25 percent. Meanwhile, research conducted recently in California showed that ozone increases the odds of bipolar disorder, self-harm and suicide, while a Danish study linked high levels of NO2 in the air with schizophrenia.
Springfield residents go days without power after 'widespread, devastating' derecho winds (AP) — The fierce derecho that tore through Springfield late last week snapped massive utility poles and trees, causing widespread power outages that are expected to leave many homes in the dark for several more days, officials said Monday.The severe weather phenomenon often described as an inland hurricane kicked up straight-line winds of 70 mph (110 kph) or more, driving rain horizontally when the ferocious storm erupted Friday in the Midwest.The destruction was so extensive that municipal utility crews surveying neighborhoods over the weekend often found damage so severe that they made plans to return later to make repairs.“It seems like it should be an easy fix, but it isn’t. So we want our citizens to know that we hear you; it’s hard, we know you’re without power,” Mayor Misty Buscher said. “We’re doing our best to restore your power as quickly as possible and assess the damage.”The destruction easily matches that of other Springfield-area weather disasters of recent memory, including a March 2006 tornado and 1978’s surprise Good Friday ice storm, said Doug Brown, chief utility engineer for City Water, Light & Power. But while the tornado’s heaviest damage was localized, for example, the derecho wreaked widespread havoc.With 10,000 customers without power, CWLP estimates 3,000 more restored by the end of Tuesday, another 3,500 by Friday, and 2,500 by Sunday, leaving 1,000 residents still in the dark.“We’re still not able to see every piece of damage across the city. It is widespread, it is devastating,” Brown said. Repair crews “go into an area, they assess it, and then if it’s an easy repair they can get to it. And if not, then they have to back off and bring in other people or crews, more material. That delays things.”
Chicago flooding is stark reminder of vulnerability of major cities during extreme weather -Heavy rains that flooded Chicago neighborhoods, rendered freeways impassable and wreaked havoc on NASCAR street races downtown Sunday are serving as stark reminders of urban centers’ vulnerability during extreme weather events. Warmer air over metropolitan areas combined with many square miles of impermeable concrete add up to intensifying storms that generate billions of gallons of run-off rainfall with nowhere to go, stressing cities’ sewer systems, experts say. In major cities, extreme weather causes water and debris to flow into homes, businesses, and underground train systems. After a historic deluge in April in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, residents had to wade through knee- and chest-high water, and navigate the streets on canoes and kayaks. In Texas, heavy rains across the drought-stricken Dallas-Fort Worth area last August led to hundreds of high-water calls. With projections calling for more frequent and powerful storms as climate change continues, cities like Chicago will have to look for new ways to mitigate flooding, said Max Berkelhammer, an associate professor in earth and environmental sciences at the University of Illinois-Chicago. “That’s really where the challenges are,” Berkelhammer said. “You can build a lot of infrastructure but in a city like Chicago, in a storm like yesterday, you have to find a place for (the run-off) to go.” Sunday’s flooding was caused by a storm system that stalled over the northeastern corner of Illinois. Instead of moving east over Lake Michigan, the storm pinwheeled around Chicago, dumping as much as 9 inches (23 centimeters) of rain in some areas over the course of Sunday afternoon. Ed Staudacher, assistant director of maintenance and operations for the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago, said so much run-off flowed into the city’s sewer system that it filled one of the city’s three reservoirs with almost 5 billion gallons of water. The Chicago River rose six feet (2 meters) during the storm, forcing workers to close a series of locks and reverse the river’s flow from west to east into Lake Michigan to prevent more flooding, he said. The mayor issued a statement asking people to refrain from taking showers and washing dishes to prevent even more run-off from filling the sewers. “I’ve lived through quite a few storms,” Staudacher said. “(But) it’s still nerve-wracking because you’re watching gauges climb. It’s a very stressful day but we have the systems in place to handle this.”
Midwest states, often billed as climate havens, suffer summer of smoke, drought, heat - Investigate Midwest — Masks made a comeback in Wisconsin this week. As smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed the state, health officials urged people to wear face coverings — previously worn en masse to reduce transmission of COVID-19 — if they had to spend time outdoors. This time, they blocked out smoke particles.At Madison’s Pinney Library, staff handed out N95 masks. The building was busy Wednesday, especially the children’s section, in part because poor air quality had caused the school district tocancel summer school and community recreation programs for the day.“After COVID, this seems like another big thing that we haven’t experienced before,” said library page Nancie Cotter. “It’s almost a little scary.”The lingering presence of wildfire smoke has made for an unusual start to summer across the Midwest. It also comes during a near-record drought crisping fields across the Corn Belt and the threat of hotter summers to come.Many have thought of the region as a climate haven, rich with water resources and shielded from sea level rise and powerful hurricanes.This summer is clouding that picture. “When we think of both climate and air quality, we often think of it as something that happens to other people,” said Tracey Holloway, a professor in the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. “As climate changes, it’s changing everything for everyone.”Forecasters say a perfect storm of factors has caused the smoke to settle over the Midwest, including atmospheric conditions. The way Canada manages its wildfires also plays a part.And the changing climate is bringing higher temperatures, periods of drought and more volatile winds that yield wildfiresthat burn faster and stronger than before. They also start earlier in the year.The severity of the problem over the past month has been a shock to the public, curbing much-anticipated summer activities. In Minneapolis in mid-June, the city’s air quality was among the worst in the world. When another wave of smoke washed over the city at the end of the month, beaches around Cedar Lake — normally packed on summer afternoons — were deserted. “In most people’s lifetimes, this is the worst it has been,” Though it’s not clear yet how much smoke the region will have to contend with in summers to come, other indicators of climate change are emerging.The Mississippi River flooded to near-record levels this spring. Now, much of the Midwest is gripped by drought, setting farmers on edge during the growing season.In Illinois and Iowa, which together produce more than a quarter of the nation’s corn and soybeans, at least 90% of those plants face drought conditions. Arid conditions are expected to persist through September.
Wildfire smoke from Canada making its return to northern US - Less than a week after the last round of Canadian wildfire smoke blotted out the skies of the Midwest and Northeast, prompting numerous air quality alerts, more ground-level smoke has returned to the United States. However, this time it has covered a broader scope across the northern states. Air quality levels in the Northeast and Midwest had improved drastically by Monday following the latest incursion of wildfire smoke, thanks to thunderstorms across the regions that flushed the particles from the air. However, the smoke is forecast to shift out of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies into the neighboring northern Plains and Northwest U.S. into Wednesday, leading to poor air quality and low visibility, AccuWeather forecasters warn.The smoke is forecast to reach cities like Seattle; Helena, Montana; and Grand Forks, North Dakota.The Northeast and Midwest won't escape the week without smoke clouding the sky, either. In the near term, poor air quality has been reported in some major cities such as Washington, D.C., New York City and Detroit, mainly due to lingering smoke from 4th of July fireworks. While this is likely to dissipate throughout the day Wednesday, air quality levels may be unhealthy for some during the morning hours.Later this week, there is some smoke risk as well as the potential for poor air quality to return as a surface high slides into the Upper Midwest, bringing a northern wind into the region and in the Northeast, AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer said. “The general pattern through at least the middle portion of the month is supportive of having more episodes of smoke enter the Midwest and Northeast from Canada," he said. "As a result, more occurrences of poor air quality and hazy skies can occur in these areas more frequently." The latest indications are that while some high-level smoke in the form of hazy sunshine may return to the Northeast later this week, widespread low-level smoke from fires in eastern Canada may hold off into this weekend or perhaps later next week. Over 600 active fires were burning across Canada as of Monday, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC). By Tuesday morning, the total acreage burned this year was over 21 million. For context, the state of South Carolina is approximately 20.5 million acres. The previous record was set in 1995 when wildfires burned more than 17.5 million acres across the nation. Of the fires active on Tuesday, over 300 were considered to be "out of control." Since the start of the year, there have been 3,313 across Canada, according to the CIFFC, most of which started due to natural causes such as lightning strikes.
Wildfire smoke affecting air quality across Whatcom County WA -Bellingham’s air quality hovered in the moderate range Wednesday as smoke from wildfires across the Northwest drifted over Western Washington. Air quality in parts of the southern Puget Sound region was considered unhealthy Wednesday, but it was not expected to worsen past moderate levels in Whatcom County, according to officials at the Northwest Clean Air Agency. “Ground-level smoke from fires in British Columbia and the Olympic Peninsula will impact our area. Residual smoke from fireworks is also impacting some places,” the agency said Wednesday on its social media. “At this time, it is uncertain when conditions will improve because existing wildfires could grow and new wildfires may start,” agency officials said. High temperatures Wednesday were expected in the low 80s, about 10 degrees above normal for early July. Reid Wolcott of the National Weather Service in Seattle said a red flag warning for extreme fire danger would continue through at least Wednesday in parts of Washington. “In general, expect visibility to slowly improve today and the mixing layer deepens. However, smoke from local fires will continue to be an issue until those fires are extinguished,” Wolcott said in the online forecast discussion. It could be just the start of a long, hot smoky summer, according to fire managers, meteorologists and air quality officials. Current long-range forecasts call for a warmer than normal summer for Western Washington, with below-normal rainfall, during the state’s driest months.
Smoke will keep pouring into the US as long as fires are burning in Canada | CNN — Another wave of wildfire smoke has drifted into the US, dimming blue summer skies and igniting troubling concerns regarding the increasing frequency of fires, and what they have to do with climate change.More than 100 million people are under air quality alerts from Wisconsin to Vermont and down to North Carolina as smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to waft south, though conditions are expected to improve slowly into the holiday weekend.Air quality on both sides of the border has been affected as more than 500 active wildfires raging across Canada. Some fires are so out of control officials have no choice but to leave them burning.Meanwhile, at least 10 countries have deployed their own firefighters to assist Canada with putting out the ones threatening communities whose residents have scrambled to evacuate.Scientists continue to reiterate warnings the effects of climate change have arrived, emphasizing wildfires and the plumes of toxic smoke generated by them will become more frequent. As plumes of smoke billow out of Canada’s forests, some may be wondering why many of the fires are being allowed to burn unchecked. While every Canadian province responds to the fires in their regions differently, they all have common guidelines emphasizing the importance of prioritizing which fires to fight and which to leave alone.Massive fires burning in remote areas – like some of those currently burning in northwestern Quebec – are often too out of control to do anything about.“If you have limited resources, and you have a lot of fires, what you do is you protect human life and property first,” Robert Gray, a Canadian wildland fire ecologist, told CNN. “You protect people, infrastructure, watersheds, so there’s a prioritization system.” He added, “If you’ve got these fires that are burning way out in the back forty, and they’re not threatening anything immediately, then you’re going to have to let them do their thing.” While the thought of massive fires burning through millions of hectares of forestland might sound unfathomable, it isn’t entirely new. “There’s always been fires Canadian fire managers don’t fight. It’s expensive to do so, ecologically undesirable, and kind of just messing with nature,” said Daniel Perrakis, a fire scientist with the Canadian Forest Service. “The smoke is a problem but even if we wanted to do something about it, it wouldn’t really be clear how to do so. You’re talking about huge areas where there’s no road access, no communities in some cases.” Of the 522 fires currently burning, 262 are listed as out of control across Canada, including British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. Along with remoteness and distance from people, terrain is another factor. Some of the fires are being allowed to burn simply because they are too treacherous for firefighters to even attempt to tackle. “These fires are so big that you really can’t put people anywhere near them, the winds kick up, they move very fast, they can start out ahead of you and they can trap crews,” Gray said.
Why the Canadian wildfires are still burning — and sending smoke across the U.S. - With hundreds of Canadian wildfires sending smoke across the northern United States, many Americans are wondering how long the bad air quality will continue and whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government can do more to put out the flames. While Canada does have a policy of letting fires in some remote areas burn out on their own, the government has also simply been overmatched by this year’s record-breaking fire season, which has so far burned more than 32,000 square miles. Canada is also contending with other limitations and challenges — some of which are of its own making. Here’s a rundown:
- The fires are incredibly widespread and constantly starting anew - As of Monday, there are 584 active fires in Canada, including three that started today, upfrom 501 last Thursday, according to theCanadian Interagency Forest Fire Center. Of those, 285 are considered “out of control,” 195 and are “under control,” and 104 are “being held.” As fires get put out, new ones keep starting. The country has seen a total of 3,255 fires so far this year, and have burned an area roughly as large as the state of South Carolina — making this already the worst fire season in Canadian history— and summer has just begun.
- Some of the fires hard to reach, and resources are limited - With a landmass second only to Russia, but with a population just one-ninth that of the U.S., Canada finds itself short of the manpower, money and equipment needed to effectively counter the extent of this summer’s wildfires. “Massive fires burning in remote areas — like some of those currently burning in northwestern Quebec — are often too out of control to do anything about,” CNN reported on Saturday. “With so many fires across the whole country, resources are scarce,” Dustan Mueller, a U.S. Forest Service deputy fire chief who has been in Canada assisting with its firefighting effort, told the Guardian. “If you have limited resources, and you have a lot of fires, what you do is you protect human life and property first,” Robert Gray, a Canadian wildland fire ecologist, told CNN. “You protect people, infrastructure, watersheds, so there’s a prioritization system.”
- The weather, and climate change, are a factor - “Scientists say that climate change is making weather conditions like heat and drought that lead to wildfires more likely,” the BBC reported in June. “Spring in Canada has been much warmer and drier than usual, creating a tinder-dry environment for these vast fires.” “Given how much energy these fires have while they burn, it is pretty much impossible for them to stop unless large swaths of heavy rains come their way,” Apostolos Voulgarakis, a professor of climate change at Imperial College London, told Newsweek. Unfortunately, the forecast for the rest of the summer in Canada “is for hot and mostly dry” weather, Canadian fire scientist Mike Flannigantold the Associated Press last Thursday. “It’s a crazy year and I’m not sure where it’s going to end.”
- Lack of federal coordination -Each Canadian province is responsible for fighting wildfires within its borders, so, for example, the neighboring provinces of Quebec and Ontario have no coordination to their responses to fires that may even span their border.“It has been an issue because we don’t have a strong federal government and it’s left us in this mess right now,” Gray told ABC News.
Iberian Peninsula experiencing one of the most notable wildfire smoke events in its modern history - The Watchers The Iberian Peninsula is experiencing one of the most notable wildfire smoke events in its modern history with Aerosol Index (AI) values on June 27, 2023, exceeding 4 in some locations (AOD values >1). The smoke is originating in Quebec, Canada, a distance of approximately 4 800 km (3 000 miles). The smoke is spreading to England and France on June 28 and will reach Germany by June 30.
More than 30 people killed as widespread pre-monsoon rains hit Pakistan - Pre-monsoon rainfall continues to wreak havoc in Pakistan, with the death toll rising to 32 and 48 injured as of July 3, 2023. Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan provinces bear the brunt, with 32 homes reported damaged. More heavy rainfall is expected in the days ahead. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the death toll has reached 32. Twenty of these deaths occurred in Punjab, seven in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and five in Balochistan. Lightning strikes, electrocution, and roof collapses have been cited as the main causes of these fatalities. In addition, 48 individuals have sustained injuries and 32 homes have been damaged. In the past week, regions including Kashmir, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamabad, Pothohar, and northeast Punjab have experienced moderate to heavy rain, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorms. The Met Department issued a countrywide advisory on July 2, warning of heavy rain and potential hailstorms leading to urban flooding starting from the night of July 3. The advisory also urged district administrations to remain alert to avoid flood-like situations. This severe weather pattern is expected to persist until July 8. The advisory further outlined that moist currents from the Arabian Sea are likely to penetrate the upper parts of the country, and a westerly wave is also anticipated to enter the region. This will result in rain spells, thunderstorms, and scattered hailstorms in various parts of the country from July 5 to 8. The advisory also warned that heavy rainfall might trigger urban flooding in low-lying areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Gujranwala, and Lahore, and cause landslides in vulnerable regions of Murree, Galliyat, Kashmir, GB, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from July 4 to 7. Flash floods are also anticipated in the areas of D.G. Khan and adjoining regions of northeast Balochistan from July 6 to 8. Given the weather conditions, farmers and tourists have been advised to plan their activities in accordance with the forecast. Meanwhile, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) warned of potential flash flooding in the hill torrents of D.G. Khan Division, local nullahs of northern Balochistan, and small rivers of Bannu, Kohat, and D.I. Khan. The FFC’s daily report highlighted that the Kabul River continues to flow in low flood at Nowshera, while rivers Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej maintain normal flows.
Record-breaking rainfall hits western Honshu and Kyushu, causes fatalities and damage, Japan -On Saturday, July 1, 2023, parts of Western Honshu and the Kyushu region in Japan were hit with record-breaking rainfall, resulting in one confirmed fatality, two missing individuals, and extensive damage to over 270 homes. This extreme weather event has prompted evacuation orders in several municipalities. Western Honshu and the Kyushu region in Japan experienced record-breaking rainfall on July 1, 2023, resulting in severe consequences, including one confirmed death, two missing persons, and significant damage to over 270 houses. As of 15:00 local time, the city of Yamaguchi recorded a record-breaking 332.5 mm (13.1 inches) of rainfall in 48 hours, while Yunomae town in Kumamoto Prefecture registered 469 mm (18.5 inches). This extreme rainfall led to widespread damage, primarily in Yamaguchi Prefecture, where more than 270 houses were affected, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. A man was found dead inside a washed-away car in the same prefecture, while a mudslide in Oita Prefecture resulted in a house being swept away, with authorities still attempting to reach the 70-year-old male occupant. Heavy rain resumed on the evening of Sunday, July 2, 2023, in the Kyushu region, due to an active front, resulting in evacuation orders and a bridge collapse in Kumamoto Prefecture. As of Monday, July 3, several municipalities across Fukuoka, Saga, Kumamoto, Oita, and Miyazaki prefectures were under evacuation orders. On July 3, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported a linear precipitation zone in Kumamoto Prefecture. A linear precipitation zone comprises a line of cumulonimbus clouds that can remain stationary or pass over an area for several hours, often bringing heavy rainfall. The agency warns of continued rainfall in Kyushu, possibly leading to the formation of another linear precipitation zone and urges residents to stay vigilant against potential landslides and house flooding. Downpours have been intermittently striking Kyushu and western Japan’s Yamaguchi Prefecture since June 29. The cumulative rainfall in Hita, Oita Prefecture, reached 683.5 mm (26.9 inches) by 10:00 LT on July 3. The weather agency predicts up to 200 mm (7.9 inches) of rain for Kumamoto Prefecture, up to 120 mm (4.7 inches) for Nagasaki Prefecture, up to 100 mm (3.9 inches) for Fukuoka and Oita prefectures, and up to 80 mm (3.1 inches) for Saga Prefecture in the 24 hours up to midday on July 4.
Severe flooding hits China, 3 provinces report some of the worst flooding in 50 years - (videos) In response to severe flooding over the past couple of days, over 10 000 individuals were urgently evacuated in China’s central Hunan province, according to the Xiang’xi Emergency Management Bureau. The devastation included the collapse of around 70 homes, damages to 2 283 others, and flooded farmlands, leading to estimated losses of around 575 million yuan ($79 million). The heavy flooding in China’s Hunan province has led to an immediate evacuation of more than 10 000 people, the Xiang’xi Emergency Management Bureau reported. Numerous homes, approximately 70, succumbed to the floods and collapsed, while 2 283 more houses were considerably damaged. The agriculture sector was also hit hard, as the floods engulfed farmlands. The financial toll from the disaster has been heavy, with initial estimates projecting losses of about 575 million yuan (79 million dollars). Yet, no fatalities have been reported thus far, despite the large-scale damage and displacement. A similar crisis was reported in the north, in Shaanxi province’s Zhenba county, where residents are experiencing the worst flooding in half a century. The damage there has been extensive, affecting homes and infrastructure, with roads washed out and homes severely damaged. Parts of Chongqing and Yunnan provinces reported some of the worst flooding in 50 years.
Record-breaking rains and icy blasts hit Queensland and southeast Australia - The Outback Queensland was pounded by record-breaking rainfall, with some regions receiving up to 15 times their average monthly rainfall in just a few days. The unseasonal weather, brought about by a northwest cloud band since Friday, June 30, 2023, was accompanied by a cold blast that drastically reduced temperatures. From Friday, a northwest cloud band led to heavy rains across Western QLD, causing towns like Mt Isa and Cloncurry to shatter their monthly rainfall records between Sunday and Monday. The rainfall was intense, with Mt Isa airport recording an unseasonable 78.4 mm (3.1 inches) within a 24-hour period ending on Monday, July 3. This amount is about 13 times the average July rainfall, surpassing single-day rain records set nearly a century ago. To the east of Mt Isa, Cloncurry also experienced significant rainfall, recording approximately 15 times their monthly July average of merely 4.3 mm (0.17 inches) after 64.4 mm (2.5 inches) fell in just 24 hours ending Monday. During the same period, Birdsville recorded 15.8 mm (0.62 inches) of rain, marking its heaviest July rain since 1998. himawari-9 july 4 2023 at 06z bg Image credit: JMA/Himawari-9, Zoom Earth, The Watchers. Acquired at 06:00 UTC on July 4, 2023 Helen Reid, a meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, explained that this “unseasonable” rainfall was not finished and the weather system was moving into the southeast of Australia. She noted that this cloud band had previously brought rainfall to northern parts of Western Australia, then moved into the Northern Territory and Central Australia. Queensland is the latest state to experience this unusual weather pattern.
Deadly flash floods sweep Lahore after record rainfall, Pakistan - (news video) Seven fatalities were recorded in Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest city, on Wednesday, July 5, 2023, following record-breaking rainfall that led to severe urban flooding and substantial infrastructure damage across various areas. Lahore witnessed a record-breaking 291 mm (11.4 inches) of rain today that triggered severe urban floods, leading to the death of at least seven people and causing extensive damage to infrastructure in several areas. The Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority Director General, Imran Qureshi, confirmed that among the fatalities, three people died due to electrocution and roof collapses each, while one girl tragically drowned. Furthermore, a drowning death was reported in Layyah, and six other individuals were injured during rain-related incidents across Punjab in the last 24 hours. They were promptly taken to hospitals and provided with necessary medical aid. lahore nasa terra modis july 5 2023 bg Image credit: NASA Terra/MODIS. Acquired on July 5, 2023 “We are monitoring the situation from the provincial control room. Residents can call us on 1129 for any help,” Qureshi assured. He further added that in anticipation of any emergencies, machinery and personnel have been put on high alert. The Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA) reported that parts of the city had received over 200 mm (7.8 inches) of rainfall within 10 hours. The highest recorded rainfall was 291 mm (11.4 inches) in Lakshmi Chowk, followed by 277 mm (10.9 inches) in Nishter Town and 270 mm (10.6 inches) in Qurtaba Chowk. Lahore Commissioner, Muhammad Ali Randhawa, indicated that such a significant volume of rainfall within a short duration had not occurred in the past 30 years. Comparatively, 238 mm (9.3 inches) of rainfall was recorded last year, while 288 mm (11.3 inches) was received in 2018. The Met Office forecasted that showers in Lahore would continue intermittently over the next 24 hours.
Storm Poly - Strongest summer storm on record hits the Netherlands - (videos) An exceptional summer storm named Poly by the German Weather Service wreaked havoc in the Netherlands on July 5, 2023. Recognized as the strongest summer storm ever and the overall strongest since January 2018, Poly brought record-breaking wind speeds to the country, causing widespread damage and claiming at least one life.Poly’s intensity was underlined by a wind gust recorded in IJmuiden, hitting 146 km/h (90.7 mph), marking the strongest summer wind gust ever recorded in the Netherlands. This unprecedented event led to the issuance of a Code Red weather alarm in the provinces of Noord-Holland, Flevoland, and Friesland due to very strong wind gusts. The National Meteorology Institute urged people not to leave their homes and to reserve emergency service numbers for life-threatening situations only. The Haarlem area was particularly hard-hit, with numerous reports of trees collapsing on homes and cars. Tragically, there was one fatality in Haarlem when a falling tree struck a car. In Amsterdam, storm damages were extensive, and two individuals sustained serious injuries. In response to the harsh conditions, Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport, one of Europe’s busiest hubs, canceled over 400 flights. A spokesperson indicated traffic would be limited until at least 16:00 local time on July 4. Train operators NS and Arriva suspended all services in the country’s north, and a major highway north of Amsterdam was closed due to falling trees. Rainfall was heaviest in the center and west of the country, with widespread measurements of 20 to 30 mm (0.8 – 1.2 inches). In localized areas, rainfall exceeded 40 mm (1.6 inches). The intensity of the storm weakened in the Netherlands by the afternoon as its center continued its journey NNE over neighboring countries. While strong storms in the Netherlands usually occur between October and April, Poly has redefined this norm. The previous severe storm that hit the country was on January 18, 2018, while less intense ones than Poly also hit the country during the summer months — on July 25, 2015, and August 26, 2020. Weeronline reports that the 2015 storm, the previous summer record-holder, produced wind gusts peaking at 122 km/h (75.8 mph), also measured in IJmuiden.
US climate data pinpoints Monday as hottest recorded day on Earth -- Monday was the hottest day recorded on Earth, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). On July 3, the average global air temperature 2 meters above the planet’s surface reached 62.62 degrees Fahrenheit or 17.01 degrees Celsius, according to the data analyzed by the University of Maine. Robert Rohde, of the University of California, Berkeley, said the extreme heat was the result of both climate change, as well as the El Niño weather pattern, which can cause parts of the northern U.S. and Canada to become warmer and dryer than usual.Meanwhile, the effect can make Gulf Coast and the Southeastern U.S. wetter, according to NOAA. He also warned that humanity should expect more scorching temperatures over the next month and a half. “NCEP has placed Earth’s average temperature yesterday as the hottest single day thus far measured by humans,” Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, tweeted Tuesday. “This is driven by the combination of El Niño on top of global warming, and we may well see a few even warmer days over the next 6 weeks.” Monday’s temperatures beat the previous record set in July 2022 and August 2016 of 62.46 degrees Fahrenheit or 16.92 degrees Celsius.
Tuesday set an unofficial record for the hottest day on Earth. Wednesday may break it. - The planet’s temperature spiked on Tuesday to its hottest day in decades and likely centuries, and Wednesday could become the third straight day Earth unofficially marks a record-breaking high. It’s the latest in a series of climate-change extremes that alarm but don’t surprise scientists.The globe’s average temperature reached 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit (17.18 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, a common tool based on satellite data, observations, and computer simulations and used by climate scientists for a glimpse of the world’s condition. On Monday, the average temperature was 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit (17.01 degrees Celsius), setting a record that lasted only 24 hours.For scientists, it’s a sweaty case of I-told-you-so.“A record like this is another piece of evidence for the now massively supported proposition that global warming is pushing us into a hotter future,” said Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field, who was not part of the calculations.On Wednesday, 38 million Americans were under some kind of heat alert, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist Sarah Kapnick. She said the global heat is from a natural El Nino warming of the Pacific that heats up the planet as it changes worldwide weather on top of human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas.
This July 4 was Earth's hottest day since records began, scientists say - Tuesday was the hottest day on Earth since at least 1979, with the global average temperature reaching 62.92 degrees Fahrenheit (17.18 degrees Celsius), according to data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction.As a result, some scientists believe July 4 may have been one of the hottest days on Earth in about 125,000 years, due to a dangerous combination of climate change causing global temperatures to soar, thereturn of the El Niño pattern and the start of summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Warming ocean waters point to a developing El Niño weather pattern for 2023. The Post's Scott Dance breaks down what this means for future forecasts. (Video: John Farrell/The Washington Post)In the United States, 57 million people were exposed to dangerous heat on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post’s extreme heat tracker. At the same time, China was gripped by a sizzling heat wave, the Antarctic is hotter than usual during its winter, and temperatures in the north of Africa reached 122F, Reuters reported.Tuesday’s global average temperature was calculated by a model that uses data from weather stations, ships, ocean buoys and satellites, Paulo Ceppi, a climate scientist at London’s Grantham Institute, explained in an email Wednesday. This modeling system has been used to estimate daily average temperatures starting in 1979. Instrument-based global temperature records go back to the mid-19th century, but for temperatures before that, scientists are dependent on proxy data captured through evidence left in tree rings and ice cores. “These data tell us that it hasn’t been this warm since at least 125,000 years ago, which was the previous interglacial,” Ceppi said, referring to a period of unusual warmth between two ice ages.The last time the record was broken was on Monday, when the temperature was 62.62 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the same data. Before that, the highest recorded average temperature in history was 62.46 degrees Fahrenheit as measured on Aug. 14, 2016, during the previous El Niño cycle.Unless action is taken to combat carbon emissions, experts agree that temperatures are likely to get even hotter.
Earth's average temperature matches record high set a day earlier --Earth’s average temperature on Wednesday remained at an unofficial record high set the day before, the latest grim milestone in a week that has seen series of climate-change-driven extremes. The average global temperature was 17.18 Celsius (62.9 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, a tool that uses satellite data and computer simulations to measure the world’s condition. That matched a record set Tuesday, and came after a previous record of 17.01 Celsius (62.6 degrees Fahrenheit) was set Monday. While the figures are not an official government record, “this is showing us an indication of where we are right now,” said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist Sarah Kapnick. And NOAA indicated it will take the figures into consideration for its official record calculations.
Earth reaches hottest day ever recorded 4 days in a row -- For four days in a row, the planet reached its hottest day ever recorded as regions all over the world endure dangerous heat. Earth warmed to the highest temperature ever recorded by human-made instruments when the average global temperature reached 17.18 degrees Celsius, or 62.92 degrees Fahrenheit, on Tuesday, as millions of Americans celebrated the Fourth of July, data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction shows. On Wednesday, the record was tied as global temperatures again reached 17.18 degrees Celsius. That record was broken on Thursday as global temperatures climbed to 17.23 degrees Celsius, or 63.01 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the NCEP. The record was first set on Monday, when average global temperatures measured at 16.2 degrees Celsius, or 61.16 degrees Fahrenheit, but it only took one day to surpass that temperature. The heat blanketing much of Earth has been driven by El Niño in combination with the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for global warming, researchers say. Those conditions may prompt even hotter temperatures over the next six weeks, according to Robert Rohde, a physicist and lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, a non-profit environmental data analysis group. Although the data only exists after 1979, this week's temperatures likely represent the record for long before global temperatures began to be recorded, Rhode said in a Twitter post on Wednesday. "Global warming is leading us into an unfamiliar world," Rhode tweeted. The record was broken at the same time that some regions in the southern United States are facing a weeks-long heat wave with dangerous temperatures, as well as intense heat domes occurring elsewhere in the world in places like China and North Africa. Earth had the warmest June on record for air temperature and for sea surface temperature, but July and August could prove to be even hotter as El Niño continues to strengthen, Brian Brettschneider, a climate scientist based in Anchorage, Alaska, wrote on Twitter.
Hottest days ever recorded on earth this week | MPR News -The earth is running a sudden unexplained fever.The global average temperature this week spiked to the hottest level on record according to multiple datasets. Both the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (graphic above) show record daily global temperatures this week.The earth’s daily average temperature reached 62.9 degrees. That’s the highest ever recorded on current local datasets dating back to at least 1979, and may be the highest daily temperature in around 125,000 yearson earth.The strong of astounding records is eye-catching to climate scientists and observers. The temperature hit 104 degrees in Beijing this week. Temperatures in the 90s are observed as far north as Siberia and along the Arctic Ocean in northern Quebec.And records are being broken by wide margins. Here’s a clip from the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang on the extreme heat.It’s not just that records are being broken — but the massive margins with which conditions are surpassing previous extremes, scientists note. In parts of the North Atlantic, temperatures are running as high as 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, the warmest observed there in more than 170 years. The warm waters helped northwestern Europe, including the United Kingdom, clinch its warmest June on record.New data the Copernicus center published Thursday showed global surface air temperatures were 0.53 degrees Celsius (0.95 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1991-2020 average in June. That was more than a tenth of a degree Celsius above the previous record, “a substantial margin,” the center said. Minnesota has been riding the southern edge of a record warm weather pattern through May and June. It was the warmest May and June across Canada on record. That record warmth spread into parts of northern Minnesota.The Twin Cities just wrapped up our third warmest and second driest June on record.Recording less than an inch of rainfall in June in Minnesota is hard to do. June is the wettest month of the year climatologically in Minnesota.The Twin Cities averages around 4.5 inches of rain in June, so our rainfall deficit at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was about 3.5 inches just last month.The recent widespread record warmth is increasing the odds of 2023 going down as the warmest year on record globally.There is now a 54 percent chance that this will be the warmest year on record globally, according to scientist Robert Rohde at the University of California, Berkeley. The rapidly developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be adding to the ongoing global warming effect.
Mexico acknowledges 112 heat-related deaths so far this year, almost triple the figures in 2022 — Mexican health authorities say there have been at least 112 heat-related deaths so far this year, acknowledging the deadliness of a recent heat wave that the president previously said was being overblown by alarmist journalists. The report, released late Wednesday, also shows a significant spike in heat-related fatalities in the last two weeks. So far this year, the overall heat-related deaths are almost triple the figures in 2022. The Health Department normally issues a report on heat-related fatalities each week, but in June — at the height of the heat wave — it skipped a week, for reasons that remain unclear. The deaths reached a peak in the week of June 18-24, with 69 deaths in one week nationwide, an unprecedented number. Temperatures in some parts of Mexico have risen to over 105 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) in recent weeks. The week of June 11-17 was also unusually bad, with 31 deaths across the country. So far this year, the largest number of deaths from heatstroke and dehydration have occurred in the northern border state of Nuevo Leon, home to the industrial hub of Monterrey. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador claimed last week that mounting reports of heat deaths were untrue, and were part of a media campaign against his administration. “There is an alarmist, yellow-journalism trend,” López Obrador said, citing lower death figures that were already outdated at that time. The high number of heat-related deaths appeared to be due in part not only to high temperatures, but to a delay in the onset of seasonal rains that normally come to Mexico in mid-June and tend to cool things off a bit. The Health Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the delay in its delay in reporting the fatalities. Nor was it clear why the president thought the deaths were a political issue, possibly because several media outlets reported claims that some of the deaths were caused by electricity shutoffs at some of the victims’ homes. López Obrador is a staunch defender of the state-owned power utility.
Bad news for nervous flyers: Turbulence is getting worse as the planet warms - Turbulence during a flight can be an uncomfortable experience for many, ranging from mild bumpiness to more serious instances of damaged airplanes and injured passengers.With millions of people jetting off on their summer vacations, a recent study from researchers in England provides some challenging, but important, reading.According to the analysis, which was published in Geophysical Research Letters in June, clear-air turbulence (CAT) became increasingly prevalent in certain parts of the world between 1979 and 2020.Related to wind shear, clear-air turbulence presents a specific challenge to pilots because it's tricky to identify ahead of time and can appear without warning.The World Meteorological Organization, for example, says CAT "often — though not necessarily always — occurs in the absence of cloud, making it difficult to detect visually." In an announcement accompanying the report's release, the University of Reading laid out some of the researchers' key findings."At a typical point over the North Atlantic — one of the world's busiest flight routes — the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020," it said. In addition, moderate turbulence jumped from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, while light turbulence hit 546.8 hours, up from 466.5.The university went on to state that warmer air from carbon dioxide emissions "is increasing windshear in the jet streams, strengthening clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic and globally."The paper's authors say their research "represents the best evidence yet that CAT has increased over the past four decades, consistent with the expected effects of climate change."
Strong explosion produces pyroclastic flows at San Cristobal volcano, Nicaragua - Nicaragua’s San Cristobal volcano erupted on July 5, 2023, producing pyroclastic flows and huge amounts of ash. The eruption generated concern among the authorities and nearby population, according to local media reports.1 The Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (INETER) has intensified monitoring of the volcano to assess its behavior and guarantee the safety of nearby population. The last eruption of this volcano took place on June 26, 2022, producing gas-and-ash plume that rose 1.5 km (4 900 feet) above the crater. Geological summary The San Cristóbal volcanic complex, consisting of five principal volcanic edifices, forms the NW end of the Marrabios Range. The symmetrical 1 745 m (5 725 feet) high youngest cone, named San Cristóbal (also known as El Viejo), is Nicaragua’s highest volcano and is capped by a 500 x 600 m (1 640 x 1 970 feet) wide crater.
Long-duration X1.0 solar flare erupts from Region 3354 – video - A long-duration X1.0 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3354 (beta-gamma-delta) at 23:14 UTC on July 2, 2023. The event started at 22:54 and ended at 23:58 UTC. There were no radio emissions that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. However, a 5-minute long, 200 sfu 10cm Radio Burst (Tenflare) was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the western United States, western Canada, the Pacific Ocean, Japan, and eastern Russia at the time of the flare. “The genesis of this flare is interesting and possibly unusual,” Dr. Tony Phillips of SpaceWeather.com said. “The sunspot didn’t explode on its own. It got help from a plume of plasma curling over the Sun’s limb. Hot magnetized gas landing on the sunspot triggered the blast.” At 02:35 UTC on July 2, Active Region 3359 produced an M2.0 solar flare. Accompanying this flare were multiple discreet frequency radio bursts, a Type II radio sweep (379 km/s), and a CME off the SE limb. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels from July 3 to 5 and there’s a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), according to the SWPC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC today, with a peak flux of 2 200 pfu at 19:25 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next 3 days and there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1-Minor threshold due to the flare potential of Region 3354.
State Department didn't track carbon footprint of climate summit flights - The State Department didn’t keep tabs on the carbon pollution associated with flying hundreds of federal officials to the last two global climate summits, the Government Accountability Office said in a report made public Thursday.Failing to do so ran afoul of a 2021 executive order by President Joe Biden that directed agencies to track the greenhouse gas emissions their operations produce, including official air travel, GAO said.The report was requested by Senate Environment and Public Works Committee ranking member Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who have all criticized the administration’s climate policies.“Americans are tired of bureaucrats in Washington, D.C. who don’t practice what they preach when it comes to protecting the environment,” Capito said in an email to POLITICO’s E&E News.The State Department said in an email that the department is working to counter global climate change “at scale,” an effort that requires “face-to-face diplomacy.” That includes reducing pollution from the aviation and shipping industries.“We have already seen in recent history that when we don’t show up, we cede leadership to others,” the department said, alluding to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, a move that Biden reversed.U.S. climate envoy John Kerry “believes in showing up and doing everything he can to keep 1.5 degrees [Celsius] within reach,” the department added. Scientists have warned that exceeding that threshold would mean runaway warming.The White House declined to comment. The State Department leads delegations to the annual U.N. climate confabs that include officials from other agencies — including the president in some years. The federal government sent 191 executive branch officials to the 2021 talks in Glasgow, Scotland, and 259 to last year’s summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, according to a tally included with the report.Ernst, who took the lead in requesting GAO’s investigation, said in an email to E&E News that the aim was to highlight the Biden administration’s “hypocrisy.” “The gas is always greener when you’re burning fossil fuels in the name of saving the planet,” she said. “While giving lip service to greenies, Biden bureaucrats are blatantly emitting the greenhouse gases they demonize. The double standard is clear, and Americans have had enough of this hot air.”
Greta Thunberg charged with disobeying law enforcement during climate protest in Sweden (AP) — Swedish prosecutors have charged climate activist Greta Thunberg with disobedience to law enforcement in connection with a protest in Malmö last month. Local newspaper Sydsvenskan reported Wednesday that Thunberg was detained with other activists after they stopped traffic in the oil terminal of the port in Malmö on June 19. A short statement by Swedish prosecutors on Wednesday said a “young woman” was charged with disobedience because she “refused to comply with police orders to leave the scene” during the protest. The statement didn’t identify the woman, but Swedish Prosecution Authority spokeswoman Annika Collin confirmed that it was Thunberg. Sydsvenskan said the 20-year-old Swedish activist will be called to trial at the end of July. Prosecutor Charlotte Ottosen told the paper that the crime of disobedience is typically punishable with fines.
‘Double agents’: fossil-fuel lobbyists work for US groups trying to fight climate crisis -- More than 1,500 lobbyists in the US are working on behalf of fossil-fuel companies while at the same time representing hundreds of liberal-run cities, universities, technology companies and environmental groups that say they are tackling the climate crisis, the Guardian can reveal.Lobbyists for oil, gas and coal interests are also employed by a vast sweep of institutions, ranging from the city governments of Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia; tech giants such as Apple and Google; more than 150 universities; some of the country’s leading environmental groups – and even ski resorts seeing their snow melted by global heating.The breadth of fossil-fuel lobbyists’ work for other clients is captured in a new database of their lobbying interests which was published online on Wednesday.It shows the reach of state-level fossil-fuel lobbyists into almost every aspect of American life, spanning local governments, large corporations, cultural institutions such as museums and film festivals, and advocacy groups, grouping together clients with starkly contradictory aims. “It’s incredible that this has gone under the radar for so long, as these lobbyists help the fossil fuel industry wield extraordinary power,” said James Browning, a former Common Cause lobbyist who put together the database for a new venture called F Minus. “Many of these cities and counties face severe costs from climate change and yet elected officials are selling their residents out. It’s extraordinary.“The worst thing about hiring these lobbyists is that it legitimizes the fossil fuel industry,” Browning added. “They can cloak their radical agenda in respectability when their lobbyists also have clients in the arts, or city government, or with conservation groups. It normalizes something that is very dangerous.”The searchable database, created by compiling the public disclosure records of lobbyists up to 2022 reveals:
- Some of the most progressive-minded cities in the US employ fossil-fuel lobbyists. Chicago shares a lobbyist with BP. Philadelphia’s lobbyist also works for the Koch Industries network. Los Angeles has a lobbyist contracted to the gas plant firm Tenaska. Even cities that are suing fossil fuel companies for climate damages, such as Baltimore, have fossil fuel-aligned lobbyists.
- Environmental groups that push for action on climate change also, incongruously, use lobbyists employed by the fossil-fuel industry. The Environmental Defense Fund shares lobbyists with ExxonMobil, Calpine and Duke Energy, all major gas producers. A lobbyist for the Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund also works on behalf of the mining company BHP.
- Large tech companies have repeatedly touted their climate credentials but many also use fossil fuel-aligned lobbyists. Amazon employs fossil-fuel lobbyists in 27 states. Apple shares a lobbyist with the Koch network. Microsoft’s lobbyist also lobbies on behalf of Exxon. Google has a lobbyist who has seven different fossil fuel companies as clients.
- More than 150 universities have ties to lobbyists who also push the interests of fossil-fuel companies. These include colleges that have vowed to divest from fossil fuels under pressure from students concerned about the climate crisis, such as California State University, the University of Washington, Johns Hopkins University and Syracuse University. Scores of school districts, from Washington state to Florida, have lobbyists who also work for fossil-fuel interests.
- A constellation of cultural and recreational bodies also use fossil-fuel lobbyists, despite in many cases calling for action on the climate crisis. The New Museum in New York City, the Los Angeles County Museum of Art and the Sundance Film Institute in Utah all share lobbyists with fossil-fuel interests, as does the Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra and the Florida Aquarium.
Thanks to federal tax credits, it's boom time in the Midwest for carbon dioxide pipelines - Thousands of miles of carbon dioxide pipelines planned in the Midwest have been spurred, in part, by a major expansion of federal tax credits in Democrats’ 2022 climate law.That could lead to billions of dollars per year in federal tax credits benefiting the powerful Midwest ethanol industry, even as the proposals create intense conflicts between developers and local landowners worried about pipelines on their property.Some critics also say it’s going to be difficult to tell how much the federal government is spending on the tax credits and if they are really being earned by the companies claiming them. There are also questions about whether the pipelines will be that influential in removing carbon and slowing climate change.The tax changes created incentives for larger-scale regional pipelines, Sasha Mackler, the executive director of the Center on Energy Policy at the nonprofit Bipartisan Policy Center, said.Less than a year since Congress passed the law, the effect is hard to quantify, but the changes have generated huge interest in the nation’s ethanol-producing states, he said.“It’s definitely created an enormous amount of enthusiasm and activity in the development community,” he said. “It’s very safe to say there’s been a significant uptick in commercial activity around carbon capture.”Among the tax credits for various clean energy programs in the climate law, seen as the largest U.S. effort to date to address climate change, was a major expansion of tax credits for carbon sequestration, a technique of removing carbon emissions from industrial processes.The 2022 law raised the credit from $50 to $85 per metric ton of carbon stored underground. It also extended a construction deadline and allowed for direct payment of the credit — making it simpler for companies to take advantage of — and made other changes that incentivized carbon storage.Carbon dioxide is released during the fermentation process that’s part of ethanol production. That byproduct is a relatively pure — and easy-to-transport — form of carbon dioxide, compared with other industries.Because the ethanol byproduct is easy to move, carbon sequestration in the industry has long been cheaper than in coal power plants, concrete manufacturing or other sectors.The cost to ethanol producers of sequestration ranges from about $36 to $41 per metric ton, according to a report from the clean energy group Energy Futures Initiative, meaning the $50 tax credit was already profitable for the industry in most cases.But costs varied on a case-by-case basis, depending on variables such as the length of a needed pipeline, Mackler said. The $85-per-ton credit provides even more of an incentive and makes more proposals profitable.The expanded tax credits provide “a large economic opportunity” to retrofit or build new ethanol facilities with carbon capture in the Midwest, where plentiful corn crops helped create the center of domestic ethanol production, Joseph Hezir, executive vice president with Energy Futures Initiative, said in a late June event hosted by EFI and the environmental issues think tank Resources for the Future.Producers may judge the potential benefits to outweigh the difficulties — including resistance from landowners opposed to pipeline construction — of building out carbon sequestration infrastructure, he said.“Being able then to move that CO2 once you capture it to a place where you can sequester it is going to be a challenge,” Hezir said. “But the economics look promising and motivating enough for companies to want to begin to pursue that.”While the full scope of the tax credit is hard to determine, the individual companies proposing carbon pipelines could see billions of dollars in annual tax benefits.Summit Carbon Solutions, which has proposed a pipeline network that would connect 34 ethanol plants across Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota and deposit carbon dioxide in underground storage in North Dakota, says the project could permanently store 18 million tons of carbon dioxide annually.At $85 per ton, that would equal $1.5 billion per year from the sequestration tax credit. Navigator CO2 Ventures, another company seeking permits to build pipelines across Iowa, estimates it could transport and store up to 15 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, which would earn tax credits of $1.3 billion. In theory, climate scientists say incentivizing carbon capture is good policy. It’s one of several climate solutions that major economies like the United States must use in combination to reach international climate goals. But critics say it’s hard to tell in practice exactly how much taxpayer money has been spent on carbon sequestration credits — or if the credits are going to facilities that are successfully removing carbon.
Carbon Capture Faces a Major Test in North Dakota - Energy companies have talked for years about how carbon capture technology will preserve their ability to burn coal and natural gas in a world that needs to drastically cut carbon emissions. Last week we learned some more about a project that may be an important test case. Minnkota Power, a rural electric cooperative in North Dakota, announced the next steps for Project Tundra, an attempt to retrofit a 53-year-old coal-fired power plant so that its emissions are captured before they enter the atmosphere, and then buried underground.So far, attempts to build power plants using this technology, often known by the acronyms CCS or CCUS, have cost billions of dollars and usually failed to work as advertised, as my colleague Nicholas Kusnetz has reported.. Despite this track record, the Inflation Reduction Act includes an increase in carbon capture funding, inserted into the bill at the insistence of Sen. Joe Manchin, D- West Virginia. To better understand this announcement, I spoke with Emily Grubert, an energy systems expert and a professor at the University of Notre Dame. She has deep knowledge of this subject, including from the year, ending last summer, she spent helping to lead the Department of Energy’s Office of Carbon Management. My main takeaway from our interview was that carbon capture makes sense in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, but it makes little sense as retrofitting for old power plants. One of the reasons is that carbon capture is an electricity-intensive process, so a plant operator is going to need a large supply of electricity to run the system, which adds to the overall costs and means that the plant will cost more to operate than widely available alternatives in the market. Before I get to our our conversation, here is some of what the people behind the project are saying: “By working together, we aim to advance carbon capture technology in a way that can serve as a blueprint for our state, nation and world to meet ambitious decarbonization goals,” said Mac McLennan, Minnkota’s president and CEO, in a statement. His company serves customers in Minnesota and North Dakota. Minnkota has been studying this project for years and has previously estimated a cost of $1.4 billion for the retrofit. The project is to take place at Milton R. Young Power Plant, which has summer capacity of 684 megawatts and burns lignite, a soft, moist kind of coal that is plentiful in that part of North Dakota. The main point of this latest announcement was to confirm that the project is in development and that Minnkota had a slate of partners to make it happen, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, or MHI, a company that will be designing the carbon capture system. The partners say they will decide by early next year whether to continue into the construction phase.
Michigan, a Climate Laggard, Plans to Catch Up, Fast – NYTimes - From toxic algal blooms in the Great Lakes to sewage pouring into Detroit basements to choking wildfire smoke that drifted south from Canada, Michigan has been contending with the fallout from climate change. Even the state’s famed cherry trees have been struggling against rising temperatures, forcing some farmers to abandon the crop. But this state at the center of the American auto industry has also been a laggard when it comes to climate action, resistant to environmental regulations that could harm the manufacturing that has underpinned its economy for generations. That may soon change. Michigan is one of three states where Democrats won a “blue trifecta” last year, taking control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers, and they are seizing that opportunity to propose some of the most ambitious climate laws in the world. The centerpiece is based on a 58-page “MI Healthy Climate” plan offered by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. It would require Michigan to generate all of its electricity from solar, wind or other carbon-free sources by 2035, eliminating the state’s greenhouse pollution generated by coal- and gas-fired power plants. The package would also toughen energy efficiency requirements for electric utilities and require a phaseout of coal-fired plants in the state by 2030. Coal — the dirtiest of the fossil fuels — provided the largest share of electricity in Michigan, followed by nuclear energy and natural gas, in 2021, the most recent year for which data was compiled by the Energy Information Administration. Solar and wind generated about 11 percent of the state’s electricity. More than a dozen states and the District of Columbia are requiring utilities to switch to clean electricity, but almost none have the aggressive timeline that Michigan is considering, and there is no federal clean power mandate. “For Michigan to do this would put it at the vanguard not just of state clean-energy policy but of global clean-energy policy,” said Dallas Burtraw, an analyst at Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan research organization. “Michigan is globally recognized as the industrial heart of America, and one doesn’t think of it as being a clean-energy leader. A lot of people will see this as a surprise.”’
Carnival Cruise Ship Emits More Toxic Fumes Than All Of Europe's Cars, Study Finds A new study commissioned by the European Federation for Transport and Environment revealed that toxic emissions of sulfur oxides from 63 cruise ships belonging to Carnival Corporation were 43% higher than all the combustion engine vehicles in Europe. This stunning statistic comes as EU leaders have decided to ban small combustion engines for cars by 2035. But what about 'green' cruise ships? Only crickets... "The most polluting cruise ship operator was MSC Cruises, whose vessels emitted nearly as much sulphur as all the 291 million cars in Europe. When looking at parent companies, as in our original 2019 report, the Carnival Corporation comes on top with the 63 ships under its control emitting 43% more sulfur oxides than all of Europe's cars in 2022," the study said. For cruise ship operators to achieve carbon-neutral status, this might take decades. According to the study, about 40% of cruise ships in the order books of global shipyards are dual-fuel LNG engines. "When running on LNG, these ships will cause less air pollution, but they are more damaging than fuel oils from a climate perspective due to methane slip from their four-stroke engines," the study noted. The study continued, "Cruise companies should discontinue investing in LNG-powered vessels and prioritize zero-emission technologies, such as hydrogen fuel-cells, batteries, and wind-power." Cruise ship order books currently have limited to no zero-emission vessels in shipyards. The most immediate fuel switch is from heavy fuel oil to LNG. The study shows Carnival's vessels pollute more than Europe's cars and then some, but what's mindboggling is that EU lawmakers went after cars first in their 'greenification' crusade. Why not cruise ships?
DOE launches $1B plan to drive demand for clean hydrogen - The Department of Energy’s launch Wednesday of a $1 billion clean hydrogen initiative aims to solve one of the largest problems facing the emergence of the fuel in the United States: a lack of buyers. The new initiative, which will be run by DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, seeks to reassure the nation’s first major producers of low-carbon hydrogen — specifically, those backed by billions of dollars in infrastructure law funds — that they can find reliable purchasers. Currently, low-carbon hydrogen is rarely made in the United States. Last year, DOE said it was planning to award up to $7 billion this fall for the nation’s first six to ten “hubs” — major demonstrations of low-carbon hydrogen production, storage, transport and consumption.But analysts have warned that many potential hydrogen buyers are still wary about the long-term availability and price of the fuel, suggesting the hubs could struggle to survive rather than sprouting into a national network of low-carbon hydrogen. In a notice of intent announcing the new multiyear initiative Wednesday, DOE said it would seek to “catalyze durable, bankable clean hydrogen demand” from a variety of buyers. David Crane, DOE’s undersecretary for infrastructure, said in an interview that the new initiative “should help industries that want to use clean hydrogen over time but want to be cautious and have assurance on the production, the front end.” In a statement, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm cited the need to resolve “a lack of market certainty for clean hydrogen that too often delays progress.” DOE wants “to help our private sector partners address bottlenecks and other project impediments — helping industry unlock the full potential of this incredibly versatile energy resource and supporting the long-term success of the H2hubs,” she said. More details of the initiative will be announced at a later date, although DOE’s notice of intent floated several specific possibilities on how the money will be spent, while requesting public input on them.
Utah geothermal project a step close to producing continuous energy - Utah FORGE, the nation’s most advanced effort to produce energy from the earth’s core, reached a significant milestone this week when it successfully pushed water through an underground reservoir 1½ miles below the surface. The University of Utah-managed project north of Milford in Beaver County, funded by more than $200 million from the U.S. Department of Energy, is DOE’s foremost experiment in what is termed “enhanced geothermal systems.” Geothermal energy from hot springs has been captured to produce electricity for decades, but that can only be used where hot springs are available. Enhanced geothermal systems require drilling deep into hot, dry rock to pull some of that heat out. If such systems can be made practical and affordable, there are locations worldwide where the geology is favorable. Ten miles north of Milford is one of the best. Utah FORGE researchers drilled two deep wells and then broke up the rock between the two wells using fracking technology from the oil and gas industry. After fracturing rock from both wells, the scientists for the first time this week were able to push water down one well into the fractures and see water come up through the second well. “We do have some connectivity between the two wells,” said John McLennan, a University of Utah chemical engineering professor and a co-principal investigator of Utah FORGE, during a tour of the site Wednesday. The news brings the project one step closer to the goal of providing a continuous flow of hot water that can produce electricity. Utah FORGE sits in an area of Beaver County that has become a hotbed of renewable energy. Farther up the hill is PacifiCorp’s Blundell plant, a conventional geothermal project fed by a hot spring. Surrounding the site are solar farms and windmills, and a private company, Fervo Energy, is also pursuing an enhanced geothermal project a short distance away. Even the nearby pig farms produce energy by extracting methane from the waste.
NASA Wraps Up X-57 Program without a Flight -- NASA is pulling the plug on its X-57 Maxwell electric airplane experiment without a single flight test on the books, the agency announced June 23, citing a newly discovered problem with the electric propulsion system that poses an “unacceptable” safety risk. According to NASA, the X-57 team will cease all operational activities by the end of September. It will take several months to completely wrap up the project, during which the team plans to publish technical papers detailing its successes and failures. The X-57 is a modified Tecnam P2006T that NASA has been working to retrofit with an electric propulsion system. NASA launched the program in 2016. Originally, the plan was to replace the aircraft’s two Rotax engines with 14 electric propellers powered by rechargeable lithium-ion batteries and a distributed electric propulsion system. However, the agency faced several setbacks in the X-57's development. The project got off to a rough start with the lithium-ion battery packs short-circuiting and overheating, causing thermal runaway events. After redesigning the battery packs and conducting a series of ground tests, NASA engineers determined that some components of the electrical system could not withstand the extreme temperatures and vibrations they might experience in flight. In 2021, after the Covid-19 pandemic caused further delays, NASA scaled back the project’s objectives and decided it would only fund the program through the end of 2023. Rather than developing the so-called Mod IV version of the airplane with 14 electric propellers, the agency decided to focus on the Mod II, a prototype with only two electric propellers. That version of the aircraft was expected to fly before the end of this year—until NASA discovered another big problem that would ground the aircraft indefinitely. “Unfortunately, we recently discovered a potential failure mode in the propulsion system that we've determined to pose an unacceptable risk to the pilot's safety and safety of personnel on the ground during ground tests,” Brad Flick, director of NASA's Armstrong Flight Research Center, said during a conference call with reporters. “Mitigation of that failure would take the project well beyond its planned end at the end of this fiscal year, so NASA has decided to end the project on time without taking the vehicle to flight.
Extra power was needed to keep the regional’s electricity grid going for a half hour on Wednesday --Brutal heat combined with a sudden shortfall in imported electricity caused the operators of New England’s power grid to fire up extra generators for a half hour on Wednesday.The shortfall in electricity production versus demand, known as a capacity deficiency, began shortly after 6 p.m. as a “transmission equipment failure significantly reduced imported electricity coming to New England.” The six-state region can import or export electricity from New York, Quebec and New Brunswick as needed; details of the failure were not available Thursday.Demand for electricity production by power plants often spikes at around 6 p.m. on a summer weekday because people turn on air conditioning as they get home from work and the region’s solar production – which on a sunny afternoon now generates three times as much electricity as Seabrook Station nuclear plant – begins to wind down.This combination on Wednesday resulted in more demand for electricity than was scheduled to be produced by power plants, leading ISO-New England, which operates the grid, to implement Actions 1 and 2 under Operating Procedure No. 4. That includes ordering immediate generation from some units that can fire up quickly, such as two kerosene-fired combustion turbines at Merrimack Station in Bow.“The capacity deficiency was mitigated within 30 minutes,” ISO-NE wrote in a report, although a problem caused the website and mobile app to show abnormal operations for several more hours.The deficiency was never great enough to request the public to voluntarily reduce usage, a form of demand response that has proved effective in past summer surges.
Natural gas is the pillar of the US electric grid. It’s also unreliable - Willie Phillips, chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, knows the U.S. has a “reliability gap” between its electricity system and its fossil gas system, one that’s played a role in causing major wintertime grid outages in the past decade and threatens to wreak even more havoc in years to come.But he’s not sure how to solve it. “People treat these two systems as if they’re different,” Phillips said during a FERC regular monthly meeting this June dedicated to grid reliability. But as fossil gas has become the top source of U.S. electricity generation capacity over the past 20 years, the two systems are “more interconnected today than they’ve ever been.”That entanglement is a major problem for grid reliability. Over the past 11 years, the U.S. has suffered five separate large-scale grid outages, mostly driven by the failure of gas-fired power during periods of extreme cold. The worst of them — the collapse of the Texas power grid during February 2021’s Winter Storm Uri — left 4.5 million homes and businesses without power at its peak, caused billions of dollars of economic damage and led to the death of more than 200 people.These outages don’t just take a significant physical toll on the country and its residents. They also challenge the logic of arguments in favor of increasing reliance on fossil gas over renewable energy.Gas is frequently touted by supporters for its flexibility and reliability — especially in comparison to wind and solar — but in moments of extreme heat and cold, studies find that these purported advantages evaporate. In fact, although some politicians, regulators and fossil-fuel industry groups have blamed renewable energy policies for grid crises, in-depth research by FERC and other entities shows this to be untrue.Climate-change-induced extreme weather is the key driver of summer and winter grid emergencies in the U.S., and fossil-fueled power plants are, if anything, more susceptible to failure under heat and cold extremes than are wind and solar power. And while extreme heat is primarily a risk factor for thermal power plants, extreme cold is a threat not just to power plants but to the gas delivery systems as well.That’s not to say that switching to 100 percent renewables would magically solve these reliability issues. Nor is it the case that a cleaner U.S. generation mix is without challenges of its own. But fossil gas is also not the no-brainer, ultra-reliable fuel it is often held up to be by those arguing for policies to build more gas plants and block renewable energy growth. (See the recent pro-gas, anti-renewables crusade from Republican state legislators in Texas.)And despite ongoing efforts from FERC over the past decade to address the reliability issues caused by the increasing reliance on fossil gas, little has changed, Phillips said. Meanwhile, extreme winter storms that used to be considered “once in a generation” are now happening “every other year,” he said.But even with its authority over the country’s electrical system, there’s only so much FERC can do to solve the problem, he said.That’s because a big, if poorly understood, cause of these grid disruptions is the fossil gas network’s vulnerability to extreme cold. Despite the physical intertwinement of the fossil gas system and the electricity grid, FERC does not have full oversight of the gas system. And unlike the nation’s electric system, which is overseen by the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), “we do not have a reliability organization for the gas system,” Phillips said at the meeting. “I believe this is a reliability gap.”
Who decides where we get electricity and how much we pay? Mostly White, politically connected men - Few government officials will have a bigger say in how states transition from fossil fuels than public utility commissioners.Yet, for the most part, these boards operate below the radar, rarely drawing the level of scrutiny faced by other agencies or officeholders.Jared Heern wants to change that.In an effort to draw more attention to the role of state utility commissions, Heern, a postdoctoral research associate at the Institute at Brown University for Environment and Society, recently assembled data on the more than 800 commissioners who served on public utility commissions across the country between 2000 and 2020. The results are laid out in a new study published in the journal Energy Research and Social Science.“PUCs are so central to the rapid action that’s needed in decarbonization, especially since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the amount of money that’s going to be going out for that,” Heern said. “They should be getting a lot more attention than they have been and climate change makes that much more important.” Utility commissions set rates, oversee investments in generation and transmission equipment, and enforce renewable energy requirements, among other things.Heern’s study found that public utility commissions are appointed by governors in 41 states; elsewhere they are elected. The dominant role governors play in determining who sits on these commissions is something that is all but overlooked at election time, Heern said. “We should be evaluating governors on what kind of PUC they’re going to appoint,” he said.
Don’t be an ash: Court says coal companies must follow state regulations - This month, a Columbus appeals court told the Ohio Utility Group — a collection of regional coal companies — that they have to follow Ohio EPA regulations when it comes to the industrial waste they produce.The Ohio Utility Group had claimed state coal ash regulations were unlawful and unreasonable because they are more protective than federal ones.Coal fired power plants produce ash as a byproduct, which can contain up to seventeen toxic heavy metals including lead, mercury, and cadmium, all of which can endanger human health.In Ohio, the state EPA requires coal companies to monitor the groundwater around their power plants for coal ash, and to close down the plants if certain levels of ash are found in that water. The OEPA also requires that the liners used to hold the coal ash byproduct meet set design criteria.The companies in the utility group said those Ohio requirements are more stringent than federal regulations, but the Tenth District Court of Appeals determined that the state’s regulations protect the environment and state residents from the negative effects of coal ash, which means the Ohio EPA has a factual basis for adopting the regulations.An Ohio EPA spokesperson said the following about the ruling:“Ohio EPA is pleased with the Ohio Tenth District Court of Appeals’ favorable decision in Zimmer Power Co., et. al. v. Director of Ohio EPA, upholding ERAC’s decision affirming the Director’s action and granting Summary Judgment to Ohio EPA.”The Ohio Utility Group could not be reached for comment by publication.
Proposed silica rule could protect miners from black lung : NPR - The Labor Department is proposing a new rule limiting miners' exposure to silica — a toxic dust created by cutting into rock that has been linked to a recent epidemic of severe black lung disease among coal miners."The purpose of this proposed rule is simple: prevent more miners from suffering from debilitating and deadly occupational illnesses by reducing their exposure to silica dust," Assistant Secretary for Mine Safety and Health Chris Williamson said in a statement.The move comes after decades of regulatory inaction highlighted in an NPR/FRONTLINE investigation in 2018.The investigation found evidence of an outbreak of a severe form of black lung disease called progressive massive fibrosis – in numbers far more extensive than federal monitors had reported. Decades of dust collection data also showed that miners had been exposed to excessive amounts of silica thousands of times.The silica problem comes from coal miners cutting into sandstone as they mine coal, generating dust. Those dust particles are sharp, and can lodge in the lungs permanently. There has been more sandstone being cut in recent years, as the larger coal deposits in Appalachia are exhausted.Despite that, the Mine Safety and Health Administration kept an old regulation that did not directly address silica.The new rule, if enacted, would change that, limiting exposure to the dust over an eight-hour shift, and requiring employers to take corrective action if they exceed the limit. The new limit is 50 micrograms per cubic liter of air. That's the same figure used in federal regulations covering other types of workplaces, such as construction sites."The proposed rule change will ensure miners have at least the same level of protections as workers in other industries," the Labor Department said.
Johnson Run strip mine mineral rights under unusual new ownership— Face one direction on Johnson Run Road and you’d see an idyllic country home. Woods surround the log cabin-style house in Trimble Township, about 10 minutes outside of Glouster.Turn around and directly across the road, about 150 feet from the house, you’d see the controversial Johnson Run strip mine operated on the same family’s property. The mine opened in May 2022, and operations now stretch about a quarter mile along the property, between the road and the forest.Although a cacophony of machinery sounds throughout the site every weekday — replacing the sounds of croaking bullfrogs that used to live at a now-destroyed pond on the property — it was not the homeowners’ decision to open the mine. The property’s mineral rights have been split from the property for nearly 100 years. Until recently, the owner was Drydock Coal Company. “Split estates” — in which the surface land is owned by one party and the mineral rights are owned by another — are very common in Appalachia and mineral-rich rural places throughout America. The practice has its origins in the Stock-Raising Homestead Act of 1916. Law surrounding split estates generally favors mineral owners over surface land owners.The mineral rights at Johnson Run recently traded hands to an unusual new owner: the Athens Conservancy, a local nonprofit dedicated to conservation.In December 2022, the conservancy announced it had accepted a donation of 10,000 acres of coal mining mineral rights in northern Athens County — including 1,100 acres with a pre-existing lease agreement for an active mine. That refers to the strip mine on Johnson Road. The conservancy did not share details about the mine in its announcement, although afrequently asked questions page on the conservancy’s website shares the mine’s name.The conservancy said it intends “to leave the vast majority of the coal untouched and in the ground to help protect the community and benefit the environment.”Local attorney Chris Gerig facilitated the donation of the mineral rights to the conservancy. Transitional Resources, LLC — which Gerig described as a shell company he represents — ended up with the mineral rights after they were deeded over from now-defunct Drydock Coal, Gerig said. Gerig hopes that the conservancy will hold the coal mineral rights “in trust for the betterment of all the people of Athens County.”“The thought was that [the Athens Conservancy] was the best entity to hold [the mineral rights] for the future of Athens County,” Gerig said. “We’ve always been very impressed with how the Athens Conservancy handles its assets and we felt like they would be an ideal beneficiary of those mineral rights.”
UN nuclear agency approves Japan’s plan to release Fukushima water into ocean - The United Nation’s nuclear watchdog approved a plan from Japan to return treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant to the ocean. The International Atomic Energy Agency approved Japan’s plan after a two-year review. In a press release, the agency said Japan’s plans were in line with international safety standards and that the release of the treated water would have a “negligible radiological impact on people and the environment.”The plan’s approval comes 12 years after a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and ensuing tsunami triggered a series of events leading up to a triple-reactor meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. More than 150,000 people were evacuated from the area surrounding the plant following the accident, which is considered the worst nuclear disaster since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Japan claims the treated water is safe to return to the sea, but the plan has received pushback from some Japanese people and from the country’s neighbors, mainly South Korea and China. “Japan should stop the plan to release the water into the sea, but seriously consult with the international community and consider a scientific, safe, transparent and convincing response,” China’s ambassador to Japan said Tuesday, according to The New York Times. Japan has not specified when it will begin to release the water into the ocean or how long it will take. But under a basic policy outlined by Japan in 2021, batches of the treated water could be routinely poured back into the ocean for the next 30 years. Currently, 1.3 million tons of the radioactive water is being stored in more than 1,000 tanks built by the Fukushima plant’s operator Tokyo Electric Power and has been treated through an “Advanced Liquid Processing System,” to remove radioactive isotopes. That system removes “almost all radioactivity, aside from tritium,” according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Ex-Ohio GOP chair, lobbyist Matt Borges shows remorse, gets 5 years for role in $60M bribery scheme (AP) — Ohio lobbyist Matt Borges was sentenced Friday to five years in prison for his part in the largest corruption scandal in Ohio history. He avoided the much harsher sentence received a day earlier by former House Speaker Larry Householder, the scheme’s mastermind, by accepting responsibility and apologizing before the judge.“Nothing makes it feel more stark than knowing I could have walked away from this at the very beginning,” the 51-year-old Borges, a former chair of the Ohio Republican Party, told U.S. District Judge Timothy Black.Black nonetheless rebuked Borges for his role in preventing Ohioans the chance to repeal a tainted nuclear plant bailout bill.“Larry Householder was a crook and you knew it. ' An unholy alliance ' is what you called it,” Black said.“You didn’t care that you were aiding an Ohio House speaker to undermine the very foundation of our democracy,” he told Borges. “You just saw everyone else getting fat and rich, and you wanted a piece of it.”Black admitted to being moved by Borges’ contrition, however, which may have contributed to him escaping the top of the 5- to 8-year range federal prosecutors sought. But the judge rejected any notion that Borges should only get the six months offered to cooperative witnesses or the 1 1/2 years sought by his attorneys, and ordered him into immediate custody.As a handcuffed Borges left the courtroom, he looked back at his wife Kate, who had delivered an impassioned plea for leniency to the judge, and could be heard saying, “Bye, babe.” She blew him a kiss.A jury convicted Householder and Borges in March, determining that Householder orchestrated and Borges participated in a $60 million bribery scheme secretly funded by Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. to secure Householder’s power, elect his allies and pass and defend a $1 billion nuclear plant bailout. Specifically, Borges was found to have offered a bribe in exchange for inside information on a referendum campaign aimed at repealing the bailout law.Householder, 64, was sentenced to 20 years, the maximum allowed, on Thursday.
Householder goes to prison, but special interest corruption continues as usual in Ohio politics - Ohio Capital Journal -- Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder is a federal prisoner. That should give all the others in state government with their hands in the cookie jar pause, right? A once all-powerful Statehouse boss faces 20 years behind bars for orchestrating the biggest public corruption scandal in Ohio’s history. That’s deterrence enough for Householder’s political colleagues to walk the straight and narrow, no?If only. The national news flash Ohio made last week when a federal judge threw the book at the ex-speaker may have raised a few eyebrows in Columbus but not many. Malfeasance in public office moved from shocking to systemic years ago in the state. The dirty dance of lawmakers, lobbyists, and undisclosed donors is the culture of the capital. Ambitious pols enriching themselves and advancing their careers through dark money webs and corrupt activity that flies under the radar is “business as usual,” argued Householder’s attorney.His client (and former lobbyist/Ohio Republican Party chair Matt Borges) just got caught dead to rights with outrageous bribery and racketeering. But they are far from the only ones motivated by greed and power to bend the law for lucrative paybacks. Back door, under-the-table, out-of-sight dealmaking is writing legislation nowthat is bought and paid for by special interests. It’s business as usual in Ohio and getting worse. It’s how Householder’s billion-dollar bailout of a major utility became law and withstood repeal. FirstEnergy is an influential powerhouse in Ohio politics. For decades it has greased palms with big campaign checks to reap corporate dividends. Ohio House Bill 6 was a pinnacle achievement.But nothing about HB 6 was above board from the beginning — and everybody knew it. Those intimately engaged in shepherding the bill through the legislature were well aware of the aggressive efforts the utility giant and its affiliates were leveraging to win passage of HB 6. The measure was custom-made for one company angling for government handouts to prop up two old, uncompetitive nuke plants. FirstEnergy had to close the deal. So it laundered over $60 million through an elaborate web of dark money groups to get it done. Householder orchestrated the scheme, spearheaded HB 6 through the Statehouse and helped himself to a gusher of ill-gotten gains. He was an easy mark for the Akron-based company that long understood how determined politicians could be bought for a career boost. Householder and countless others in the General Assembly and statewide office gladly accepted FirstEnergy’s money to triumph at the polls. In 2018, FirstEnergy pumped $1 million into groups that helped elect Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, according to a Dayton Daily News investigation. The utility also supported DeWine’s daughter’s failed bid for county prosecutor. In 2019, the governor came through for FirstEnergy. He was an unfailing champion of HB 6. He appointed the state utility regulator FirstEnergy lobbied for despite warnings about Sam Randazzo’s extensive ties with the company. DeWine stood by his PUCO pick even as reports surfaced about the chairman pocketing a pre-appointment bribe from FirstEnergy (which the utility later admitted was $4.3 million) to draft HB 6 and get it over the finish line. The nuclear plant bailout on the backs of Ohio ratepayers passed. Business as usual.
US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy touts energy dominance during visit to Columbiana County, Ohio (WKBN) – Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, spent an hour Thursday afternoon touring a drill site in Columbiana County. McCarthy toured Encino Energy’s Sanor Farm Well Pad near Damascus, bringing with him a message of more than just American energy independence. “We just don’t want to be energy independent, we want to be dominant,” McCarthy said. What McCarthy was there to see were four new well heads drilled by Encino, which in the next two weeks will be producing oil and natural gas from deep in the Utica Shale by way of hydrologic fracking. He also mingled among the Encino workers, shaking hands with many of them. McCarthy was critical of energy policies in his home state of California. “They’ve reduced production by 20%,” McCarthy said. But complimentary of Ohio. “What does Ohio do? They discover new fields — safe, secure, environmentally sound,” McCarthy said. McCarthy said America’s natural gas is 41% cleaner than Russia’s natural gas, the profits of which, he says, Putin uses to kill Ukrainians. “God has blessed America with resources. If we have the ability to produce those resources, America will be stronger and the world will be safer,” McCarthy said. He was asked about the Canadian wildfires, saying people are wrong who claim they’re caused by climate change, to which he received applause. “It’s caused by not managing your forests,” he said. McCarthy cited for example the sequoia trees of California. “In the last three years, we’ve lost 30% of our giant sequoias because they won’t go in and manage the forest,” he said. McCarthy was in Columbiana County on Thursday at the invitation of Congressman Bill Johnson, who urged Congress to pass House Resolution One, the energy bill, which Johnson says includes permitting and production reforms and pushes America back toward energy independence.
Throwback: Activists Use Long Debunked Claims In Attempt to Stop Oil, Natural Gas Development Under Ohio State Lands --Watching the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission’s June meeting on leasing the state’s mineral rights and recent coverage of arelated protest is like taking a time machine back to 2013. Fortunately, many of the concerns raised about fracking, produced water management and other related issues are ones that have been put to rest with factual data compiled from nearly two decades of shale development in the Appalachian Basin and across the country, including in Ohio where producers have been responsibly developing oil and natural gas in the Utica and Marcellus shales since 2011. Let’s take a closer look:
- Claim: Shale development cannot coexist with recreation and conservation and will impact visitors to state parks. Across Ohio, there are various examples of the energy industry working cohesively with local communities and public entities to create mutually beneficial partnerships. For instance, the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District (MWCD) has become a record-setting tourist attraction despite the energy development within its borders. In fact, MWCD has received more than $200 million in investments in campgrounds and other amenities funded by oil and natural gas revenues. The partnership has been so beneficial, the district agreed to develop 7,300 additional acres of land in the Utica Shale, where the MWCD will receive $5,500 per acre, paid over five years, and gross royalty of 20 percent.
- Claim: Ohio’s oil and gas producers are exempt from disclosing frack fluid solutions, jeopardizing communities and leaving first responders unprepared. This claim has been repeatedly debunked over the years.First, Ohio’s oil and gas operators are required by law to disclose fluid solutions to ODNR and on FracFocus, a publicly accessible database, within 60 days of completion of a well. While this does allow companies to protect proprietary information on the FracFocus website – the same as countless other industries across varied sectors – Ohio’s Senate Bill 315, which was passed in 2012, ensures that the amount, concentration, and chemical composition of fracking fluids be made available to state regulators and officials, as well as physicians, should a need arise.
- Claim: Water consumption for energy use is not regulated. Water withdrawals are strictly regulated by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Water Resources: According to ODNR:
- “Section 1521.16of the Ohio Revised code requires any owner of a facility, or combination of facilities, with the capacity to withdraw water at a quantity greater than 100,000 gallons per day (GPD) to register such facilities with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) Division of Water. The Water Withdrawal Facility Registration (WWFR) Program provides information of great importance to the citizens of the state. Water, one of our most basic and precious natural resources, needs to be studied more intensely and water resource planners need reliable information to plan for the future. The state’s economy depends on water and economic development will continue to place increased demands on this critical resource.” (emphasis added)
- “Any facility that is registered with the Division of Water Resources must complete and submit an annual report of all water withdrawn in a calendar year. Reports must also be submitted even if no water was withdrawn. This reporting applies to ground water withdrawals, surface water withdrawals or any combination of the two. These reports are due by March 1st of each year.” (emphasis added)
- Further, any facility withdrawing more than 100,000 gallons per day from the Ohio River Watershed must first obtain a permit, and any facility withdrawing more than an average two million gallons per day in any 30-day period from any waters of the state must also first have a permit.
- Claim: The management of brine is not regulated. The management of oil and natural gas produced water – or brine – is also strictly regulated in Ohio. Nearly 98 percent of brine is safely disposed of in Class II wells that are regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act and by ODNR. As EID has previously explained, ODNR received primacy in 1983 and has since been consistently recognized for having more stringent rules than those set by the federal government.
- Claim: Shale development is impacting regional health. Most research that has been used to support claims of health impacts from shale development in the Appalachian Basin and beyond has consistent limitations and flawed methodology: Namely that researchers don’t take samples to identify pathways of exposure and concentrations. When samples are taken, it has been repeatedly demonstrated that shale development in the Appalachian Basin is protective of public health. In fact, the activist who wrote a 2012 memo encouraging anti-fracking groups to connect health problems and fracking even when no evidence existed to support the claims co-authored a 2019 report where he admitted that the vast majority of scientific research shows no harmful air pollutants near oil and natural gas sites.
- Claim: Oil and natural gas will not be needed long-term. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2023 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) finds that oil and natural gas will be here for the long haul. The report projects that U.S. energy production will remain high, exports will grow, and natural gas consumption will remain stable as renewable energies integrate onto the grid through 2050. Natural gas from the Appalachian Basin will play a major role in ensuring manufacturers and utilities alike have an abundant, affordable feedstock. As JobsOhio President J.P. Nauseef recently explained:“Manufacturers worldwide are now realizing that Ohio is one of the most advantageous states for natural gas and natural gas liquids consumption – that feedstock, combined with our infrastructure, access to end-use markets, and the highly-skilled workforce that calls Ohio home.” With increasing stress on U.S. power grids, as well as global tension threatening energy security, natural gas and oil will remain essential to providing dispatchable power across the globe.
KDKA Investigates: Family says natural gas processing plants turned peaceful farm into nightmare - CBS Pittsburgh(KDKA) -- A local family says their peaceful home was turned into a nightmare when two natural gas plants moved in and seemingly surrounded their property. Now they've found themselves locked in a battle of David and Goliath. "It got handed down from my grandpa to my dad and now me," said farm owner Sam Duran. The Washington County homestead and farm has been a place of quiet solitude for generations of the Duran family, until recently. The once-peaceful fields are flanked by two giant natural gas processing plants. A recently expanded plant operated by Mark West and one owned by the Texas company Energy Transfer are both sites of constant flaring and noise. "Some nights we can't even sleep with the sounds from the plants," Duran said. It all came to a head with an explosion and fire at the Energy Transfer plant on Christmas morning, causing the Durans to flee with their children. "They were opening their gifts, it was like 7:30 and the whole house shook. We gathered what dogs we could and the kids and got in the car and left," said Kasey Duran, Sam's wife. Energy Transfer's record in Pennsylvania is checkered at best. The state ordered the company to pay $30 million dollars in fines for an explosion at its Revolution Pipeline in Beaver County in 2018, and $20 million for more than 100 violations for leaks in its Mariner East pipeline, which polluted wetlands and private wells. But state environmental regulators have done little to address the problems at the plant. The state Department of Environmental Protection cited the company in 2021 for failure to prevent visible emissions, and the company agreed to pay $15,000 in fines. However, the DEP has issued no violations for the Christmas explosion and it's unclear if state regulators conducted an investigation. In a statement, the DEP said it reviewed the company's findings that a faulty valve had caused the explosion and has allowed Energy Transfer to resume operations. Despite constant calls to the DEP, Kasey Duran says she's heard nothing. "I would really like to see someone be held accountable for something. I've gone to township meetings. I've done my due diligence. I've complained, I've begged, I've cried," she said. In their statement to KDKA-TV, Energy Transfer says it has resumed operations "in accordance with all appropriate regulations under the terms of our existing permits," and has "maintained an open dialogue with the Duran family in our efforts to address their concerns." But the Durans say their pleas for them to curtail the flaring, lower the noise or construct a sound wall have fallen on deaf ears. At wit's end, they've asked Energy Transfer to buy them out but said their offer was way too low. "You know, I would really at least like to go to another farm where we got some peace and quiet and tranquility because this isn't it anymore," said Sam Duran. Between the noise, flaring and that massive explosion on Christmas Day, folks say the once peaceful farm has become unlivable, and yet, they're stuck without answers or solutions.
PA House Votes 102-101 to Study Marcellus-Busting Severance Tax - Marcellus Drilling News - Pennsylvania’s Democrat Party is hellbent on driving the Marcellus Shale industry out of the state. They have been for years. That’s just a truthful observation and beyond dispute. The latest evidence is the party’s insistence on adding a severance tax on top of the existing impact fee, PA’s version of a severance tax. The Dems in the PA House passed a resolution on Friday by a single vote that directs the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee to “study” Pennsylvania’s revenue from the oil and gas industry, comparing it with the top five states in natural gas production in the U.S.
Natgas begins July with price dip as output rises, Texas heat lets up - After the best monthly return in a year, natural gas began July trading with a dip on Monday as producers concluded on-site maintenance, resulting in higher output. Some of the heat that had pervaded the south of the United States also let up, reducing gas-driven demand for cooling. Most-active August gas the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub fell 8.9 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $2.709 per mmBtu, or metric million British thermal units. The benchmark gas futures rose 2.5% last week and 24% last month, the most for a month since June 2022. For the quarter, it was up 26%. For the year though, gas futures on the hub posted a loss of 37%. Monday’s trade reflected rebounding output as U.S. LNG terminals wrapped up maintenance in a bid to return to their 14.5 billion cubic feet per day, or bcf/d, capacity and meet the growing demand. “As anticipated, production has continued to see increases as companies conclude maintenance before the holiday, rising 0.32 bcf/d,” “We have seen a 0.24 bcf/d decrease in PowerBurn that we feel comes from both weather volatility and typical holiday dynamics. Heat has temporarily let up around the Texas area temporarily, which is reflected in regional PowerBurn metrics, and the upcoming 4th of July holiday puts additional downward pressure on demand.” The one bright aspect for the trade remains feeds for liquified natural gas, or LNG, which hit a relative high at 13.12 bcf/d on Chinese demand, the Gelber note said. China has been a consistent buyer of LNG despite the country’s fuel shortages having eased. One-third of this year’s global long-term LNG volume is signed to China, making it the top importer of the fuel. “A leading narrative for China’s continued demand is LNG’s lower price volatility compared to other fuel sources,” Gelber’s analysts said. “Some speculate, however, that broad influence as LNG’s largest buyer would be a powerful geopolitical lever for China as the transition away from coal continues globally. Either way, the country’s consistent buying shows no sign of slowing.”
US natgas prices drop 1% on record output, big storage build (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 1% on Friday to a two-week low, as drillers pulled record amounts of gas out of the ground and after a bigger-than-expected storage build last week. Forecasts called for hotter-than-normal weather through late July, especially in Texas, and rising feedgas to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator, projected another heatwave next week would boost electricity use to a record high on Wednesday, July 12. Generators burn gas to power air conditioning, and Texas in 2022 got about 49% of its power from gas-fired plants, federal energy data showed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 68 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 30, bigger than the 64-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, up from an increase of 63 bcf in the same week last year and exceeding the five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 64 bcf. The 68-bcf build was the implied flow before a 4-bcf reclassification from base gas to working gas in the Nonsalt South Central region. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.7 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.582 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 20. For the week, the contract was down about 85% after rising around 3% last week. That would be the front-month's first weekly decline in five weeks. After hitting record highs in 2022, gas prices so far this year have plunged about 55% at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe, 59% at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia and 41% at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 102.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 100.9 bcfd in June and on track to top the monthly record high of 101.9 bcfd in May. That production increase came even though drillers have cut the number of oil and gas rigs operating in nine of the past 10 weeks. This week, however, drillers added the most gas rigs in a week since October 2016, according to Baker Hughes. Meteorologists forecast weather in the Lower 48 states would remain near normal until July 10 before turning hotter-than-normal through at least July 22. With higher temperatures coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 103.1 bcfd this week and next to 106.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in July from 11.5 bcfd in June. That was still well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.
How the U.S. went from importing liquified natural gas to leading world exports - NPR (podcast & transcript)
USA Awards Contracts for SPR Purchase of 3.2MM Barrels - The USA Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded contracts for 3.2 million barrels of locally produced crude for over $230.34 million in another purchase to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after war-induced releases. These contracts are for the invitation announced last month, when the DOE awarded contracts for three million barrels. Macquarie Commodities Trading US LLC scored the biggest deal in the latest purchase with 1.5 million barrels, followed by Shell Trading Co. and Sunoco Partners Marketing & Terminals LP with 600 million barrels each. Atlantic Trading & Marketing Inc. is to supply 500 million barrels. These are scheduled for delivery September and will be injected into the Big Hill SPR storage site in Texas state’s Jefferson county, the DOE said in a press release Friday. The same storage is to receive the three million barrels whose contracts were awarded June, due for delivery August. “The 3.2 million barrels are being purchased for an average price of about $71.98 per barrel, lower than the average of about $95 per barrel that SPR crude was sold for in 2022, securing a good deal for taxpayers”, the department said. The contracts awarded last month had an average price of around $73 a barrel. The DOE plans to issue another invitation for SPR purchases this week. The USA wants to get the SPR to its would-be level had it not been for withdrawals to hold down prices that have skyrocketed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine February 2022. In an interview at the Columbia Global Energy Summit April 12, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm estimated over 160 million barrels in replenishment volume. “Today’s announcement advances the President’s replenishment strategy following his historic release from the SPR to address the significant global supply disruption caused by Putin’s war on Ukraine”, the DOE said. President Joe Biden announced March 2022 an SPR drawdown of one million barrels a day for the next six months, 180 million barrels in total. A Treasury Department analysis showed the SPR releases and coordinated releases with partner countries in the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered gasoline prices by 17-42 cents, the treasury said in a news release July 26, 2022. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) international benchmark for crude gradually fell after consistently staying above $100 per barrel March 2022, a month after the conflict started, to July 2022, according to data from the USA Energy Information Administration (EIA). WTI prices last year peaked June at a 12-year high of $114.84. WTI settled at $76.44 yearend. The Brent global benchmark also remained above $100 a barrel March 2022-August 2022 before easing to $80.92 yearend, based on the EIA data. Last year’s Brent prices also peaked June at an eight-year high $122.71. The DOE has three SPR replenishment strategies: direct buys funded by revenues from emergency sales, exchange returns and “legislative solutions that avoid unnecessary sales unrelated to supply disruptions”. The agency has so far secured the rescindment of 140 million barrels in parliament-mandated sales for 2024-27. In March the DOE awarded sales from the SPR for its full-year obligation to the congress for 2023, amounting to 26 million barrels. “This will be the last Congressionally mandated sale until FY26 [fiscal year 2026]”, it said in a press release March 9. “Congress accepted a DOE proposal that canceled 140 million barrels in congressionally mandated sales that were directed to take place between FY24 – FY27. “This action strategically maintains volume SPR at a price of ~$74 dollars a barrel by avoiding unnecessary sales.” Record Low In the third week of June according to the latest EIA update, the SPR, mandated by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act to be only used during severe supply disruptions, plunged to its lowest level since August 1983. It stood at 348,617 million barrels as of June 23. In the second quarter the SPR saw net withdrawals of 280,000 barrels a day, according to the DOE’s short-term outlook published June 6.
Permian’s Dunes Sagebrush Lizard Proposed for Endangered Species List - Natural Gas Intelligence - The dunes sagebrush lizard, found only in the shinnery oak sand dune ecosystems within the oil and natural gas-rich Permian Basin may be listed as “endangered” under the powerful Endangered Species Act (ESA). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is accepting comments through Sept. 1 on the proposal. The determination “also serves as the 12-month finding on a petition to list the lizard and satisfies a court ordered deadline to deliver the finding” by the end of June, officials noted. “Primary threats to the lizard include loss of habitat associated with oil and gas development, sand mining and changing climate,” the USFWS noted. “After a rigorous review of the best available scientific and commercial information, the Service finds that listing the species is warranted. The designation of critical habitat was found to be prudent but not determinable at this time. “
Reporting tackles increased number of earthquakes shaking New Mexico ― The railroad track that runs behind the former Carlsbad Current-Argus office on South Main Street frequently carried trains that shook the old building for minutes. But the shaking that happened on March 26, 2020 was different. It was short and sharp. It set metal cabinets humming and the window panes rattling.The 5.0 magnitude earthquake recorded that day by the U.S. Geological Survey centered west of Mentone, Texas didn't cause any damage but was at that time the largest recorded quake in the region for at least two decades.Since then, increasingly larger-scale seismic events have struck the same region. The most recent was a 5.2 magnitude quake centered near Midland, Texas onDec. 16, 2022. Damage from a Nov. 16, 2022 quake was reported in Texas but was relatively minor. In Carlsbad, merchants in the downtown area flooded the street that day with one question: "Did you feel that, too?" Residents of Las Cruces and Albuquerque reported feeling the quake, too.In the last three years, the USGS has recorded 10 seismic events of 4.5 magnitude or higher - and earthquakes aren't only getting stronger, they're getting more frequent, which could mean those living and working in southern New Mexico and west Texas might begin to feel the increasing consequences of seismic activity.What's less obvious is why this is happening. Through our reporting, experts in seismicity and geology have linked the change to a booming oil and gas industry, which disposes of its waste water via injection wells. Those wells see millions of gallons of toxic water pumped back into a geology vulnerable to sinkholes and erosion.And there are hundreds of these disposal wells in the Permian Basin.The Current-Argus always begins its coverage of earthquake activity in the region consulting USGS data - and the data tells an alarming story of the link between the two that is now being more deeply explored in research communities and among the fossil fuel industry itself.In Shaky Ground, the Current-Argus and its reporting partner, KRWG Public Media, explores what increased seismic activity means for residents of the Permian Basin, and how solutions are now being sought to not only mitigate current effects but head off disaster.Lawmakers in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico have taken up the issue with legislation that tackles its supposed cause: injection wells and hydraulic fracturing.Oil and gas operators have begun to explore technology that limits the use of injection wells and focuses instead on recycling waste water, keeping it out of fragile geology.We've been lucky: Some of the most devastating natural disasters in the world are the result of earthquakes, costing lives, billions in damages and economic loss. The world is wracked by small earthquakes on a daily basis - like the hundreds of 2.0 magnitude quakes recorded in the Permian Basin yearly. Worldwide, there are about 100 per year that measure 7.0 or greater and cause serious damage.I had no idea what the appropriate response to a seismic event was before undertaking this reporting, and I've no doubt that the thousands who live in the Permian Basin have not paused to consider what the correct response to an earthquake is either.Do you move to a doorway? Do you hide under a table?What if your home or business is damaged? Do you have the appropriate insurance coverage?Is there a plan in place for your community emergency services to respond to an earthquake that causes injuries or damage?These are the questions we asked in this reporting.And there is one I hope this reporting answers for our readers: What can be done to ensure our community is safeguarded and prepared in case of a large magnitude earthquake?
Boomtowns: Once connected by railroads, Colorado River Valley towns now feel threatened by them: Local officials spar over Uinta Basin oil trains in the heart of Rep. Lauren Boebert’s district — Coyote Gulch Blog— As they head east out of the bottomlands of the Grand Valley, trains on the Union Pacific’s Central Corridor continue to follow the Colorado River in reverse, climbing gradually into Garfield County, where the rocky cliffs and sagebrush-spotted scrubland of the high desert begin to give way to the gentler slopes and lush alpine forests of the Rocky Mountains. The railroad and Interstate 70 run in parallel through this narrow stretch of the Colorado River Valley for 60 miles, rarely separated by more than 100 yards as they pass industrial lots lined with frac tanks and truck-mounted drill rigs, and narrow strips of Bureau of Land Management acreage where sheep graze beside natural gas compressors and flare stacks.The communities that the Central Corridor passes through between the Grand Valley and Glenwood Canyon have long been shaped by the boom-and-bust cycles of fossil fuel extraction, their economic fortunes rising and falling along with the viability of the energy sources buried underneath them — first coal, then oil, and now natural gas, extracted from a subterranean formation known as the Piceance Basin.The Piceance gas boom, which peaked a decade ago, swelled county property-tax revenues and provided many families like the Boeberts with high-paying jobs. But a confluence of factors, topped by a global decline in natural gas prices, has gradually soured the basin’s outlook. Corporate oil giants like ExxonMobil and Occidental have largely divested from their holdings here, and Garfield County’s total gas production last year was only slightly more than half of 2013 levels.Although the two basins form a nearly continuous 200-mile-wide belt of underground hydrocarbon reservoirs straddling the Colorado-Utah border, producing oil and gas from many of the same layers of prehistoric rock, the Piceance and the Uinta have little to do with each other on the surface. Travel between them is possible only by circuitous highway routes that skirt north or south around the rugged Roan Plateau.Soon, though, that could change in a big way. The 88-mile Uinta Basin Railway, proposed by a partnership between industry and Utah county governments, would establish a direct rail connection between the basin and Garfield County for the first time in nearly a century.The result would be one of the largest sustained efforts to transport crude oil by rail ever undertaken in the U.S., sending hundreds of fully loaded tanker cars daily along the banks of the Colorado River through Garfield County — and many residents here aren’t happy about it.“Nobody wants it,” Caitlin Carey, a Town Council member in New Castle, said in an interview. “It’s not a sound decision environmentally, it’s not a sound decision as far as safety is concerned in our small towns, and it’s not bringing any revenue to the area. So economically, environmentally and safety-wise, it doesn’t make any sense for it to come through this area.”
Yellowstone River cleanup begins after asphalt binder spill due to train derailment -Globs of asphalt binder that spilled into Montana’s Yellowstone River during a bridge collapse and train derailment could be seen on islands and riverbanks downstream from Yellowstone National Park a week after the spill occurred, witnesses report. Officials with the Environmental Protection Agency said cleanup efforts began on Sunday, with workers cooling the gooey material with river water, rolling it up and putting the globs into garbage bags. It will probably be recycled, said Paul Peronard with the EPA. Alexis Bonogofsky, whose family’s ranch was impacted by an oil spill on the Yellowstone River near Billings in 2011, took pictures Saturday of the refined petroleum product covering rocks and sandbars. She also snapped an image of a bird that had died in the black substance. “This killdeer walked across the asphalt, which had heated up in the sun, and it got stuck and died with its head buried in the asphalt,” Bonogofsky wrote in the caption of an image she posted on social media. “You could tell where it had tried to pull itself out.” A bridge over the river collapsed as a train crossed it early on June 24 near the town of Columbus and 10 cars fell into the water, spilling liquid asphalt and molten sulfur, officials said. Both materials were expected to cool and harden when exposed to the cold water, and officials said there was no threat to the public or downstream water supplies, officials said. However, the asphalt binder behaved differently. “This stuff is not sinking in this water,” Peronard said Sunday. “It adheres really well to rock, and we can roll it up like taffy on the sand.” Bonogofsky, in another of her photos, captured a sheen on the water. She said the spilled material heated up with warmer temperatures and “you can smell it.” The Montana Department of Environmental Quality, the EPA and Montana Rail Link — the entities managing the cleanup — said more asphalt product was released Friday as a rail car was being removed from the river. “Initial assessments indicate the release was minimal based on the amount of material believed to still be remaining in the impacted car,” the statement said. Professor Kayhan Ostovar with the Yellowstone River Research Center at Rocky Mountain College also took pictures Friday of the petroleum product that had washed onto the riverbank about 6 miles (10 kilometers) downstream from the spill. Ostevar’s team has been conducting turtle surveys below the derailment and is sharing the GPS locations of sensitive sites that are near areas where the asphalt binder has come to rest. Turtles are particularly vulnerable to this type of spill, Ostovar said, because they are leaving the water right now to seek out nesting sites on gravel bars and basking in the sun. The center was created after the 2011 ExxonMobil pipeline breach to gather better baseline information on species of concern that live in and around the Yellowstone River. Statements from the agencies and the railroad over the past week have asked people to report the sighting of asphalt materials on the riverbank via email to rpderailment@mtrail.com, and have listed a phone number — 888-275-6926 — for the Oiled Wildlife Care Network to report animals with oil on them. No reports from the public had been received, Peronard said. Bonogofsky argued it shouldn’t have taken more than a week to develop a cleanup plan, especially since it’s known what materials the trains haul through Montana, as well as the damage the 2011 oil pipeline spill caused. “We should have plans in place for this and we should have learned our lesson in 2011,” she said, arguing that work to clean up the asphalt binder could have happened at the same time they were removing rail cars from the water. The last of the rail cars was expected to be removed from the water on Sunday, Peronard said, while agricultural users were notified that they could resume using river water for irrigation. Their irrigation canals had been shut down as a precaution. Cleaning up spills of petroleum products is “somewhat of a losing game,” Peronard said. “We are never going to recover all of the oil here ... and there’s likely to be impacts when we are done. That is unavoidable.” As far as the cleanup delay, he said the response to any accident starts with protecting human lives, controlling the source of the spill and then protecting the environment. He said the agency also had to make sure its cleanup plan did not cause more harm than good for bird and turtle nests in the area. Cleanup crews also have to stay at least a half mile away from eagles nesting in the area, Peronard said. The spilled asphalt material is not water soluble, he said.
North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality monitoring 4 spills in the past 5 days - The North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality is monitoring 4 spills in the past 5 days. The department says a truck accident on July 3 caused roughly 150 barrels of crude oil to spill into a road ditch about 10 miles northwest of Ray. Meanwhile, roughly 20 gallons of fuel spilled into the Souris River four miles northeast of Velva on July 2 following an excavator accident. A containment boom was put in place to contain the spill. The Department of Environmental Quality also says 2,290 barrels of produced water was released from a pipeline roughly 14 miles southeast of Tioga last Thursday. The company that operates the line, Enable Bakken Crude Services LLC says some of the leak impacted agricultural land. Friday, the Department of Environmental Quality says an estimated 200 barrels of crude oil spilled from tanks at a well pad roughly a mile northwest of Belfield. Some of the oil impacted the rangeland surrounding the well pad. The pad is operated by Big D Oilfield Services, LLC. In all cases, state officials are overseeing the cleanup and remediation.
Is Biden cracking down on pipeline violators? - Fines for oil spills and other pipeline accidents are surging under the Biden administration, but industry critics and supporters aren’t sure if the trend will last.Federal civil penalties for pipeline safety violations topped $10 million for the first time in 2021 and rose again last year to $11.6 million. During the Trump administration, fines averaged about $4.5 million per year.Pipeline safety has taken on a higher profile in recent years, both in terms of protecting vulnerable communities and trying to prevent methane leaks that exacerbate climate change. Some observers say conclusions shouldn’t be drawn from a mere two years of data. But others say the rising numbers highlight an increased vigilance on pipeline safety from the Biden administration.“It kinda jumps out at you,” said Bill Caram, executive director of the Pipeline Safety Trust, a Bellingham, Wash.-based advocacy group. “This administration seems to be taking pipeline safety more seriously than previous administrations, including Democratic administrations.”Other signs, he said, include industry fighting harder against the new rules it has proposed.The average amount of each fine sought by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration also jumped substantially in 2021 before growing in 2022 to nearly $264,000. A recent large fine for an offshore California oil spillcaused the average penalty for this year, so far, to surge to nearly $367,000.Any shift comes as pipelines become an increasingly controversial part of the climate debate. PHMSA, the federal pipeline regulatory agency, is preparing new regulations to crack down on emissions of methane from pipeline infrastructure.President Joe Biden is drawing heat for agreeing to force completion of the Mountain Valley pipeline. And his administration’s plans for pipelines for carbon capture and sequestration to fight climate change are drawing increasing criticism from both ends of the political spectrum.
North America Sees Rig Loss Regression - North America went back to losing rigs week on week, Baker Hughes’ latest rotary rig count, which was released on June 30, revealed. According to the count, North America dropped 10 rigs week on week, with the U.S. losing eight week on week, while Canada dropped two during the same timeframe. The total North America rig count figure is now 841, comprising 674 rigs from the U.S. and 167 from Canada, Baker Hughes’ latest count showed. The U.S. had eight fewer land rigs week on week, according to Baker Hughes’ count, which showed that the country dropped six gas rigs, one oil rig, and one miscellaneous rig during that timeframe. Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas all lost rigs week on week, while New Mexico and Wyoming added rigs, Baker Hughes showed. Louisiana and Texas each dropped four rigs, Oklahoma dropped two, North Dakota cut one, New Mexico added two and Wyoming added one, the count outlined. The total U.S. rig count comprises 653 land rigs, 19 offshore rigs, and two inland water rigs, Baker Hughes revealed. Of its total rig count of 674, the country has 545 oil rigs, 124 gas rigs, and five miscellaneous rigs, the count pointed out. Canada was shown in the count to have dropped one oil rig and one gas rig week on week. The country’s total rig count of 167 comprises 109 oil rigs and 58 gas rigs, according to Baker Hughes. Baker Hughes’ rig count highlighted that North America is down 75 rigs on year ago figures and showed that the U.S. has driven this decline, cutting 76 rigs compared to Canada’s addition of one. The U.S. has dropped 50 oil rigs and 29 gas rigs, and added three miscellaneous rigs, year on year, while Canada has added one gas rig year on year, the rig count revealed. North America had been on a streak of rig additions, according to Baker Hughes’ previous counts. In its last rig count, which was released on June 23, the company showed that North America had increased its rig count by five week on week and in the count before that, which was published on June 16, Baker Hughes showed that North America had added 15 rigs week on week. In the rig count prior to that one, which was published on June 9, Baker Hughes’ revealed that North America had finally broken a rig loss streak. The region was shown in that count to have added 38 rigs week on week. In its June 2 count, Baker Hughes outlined that North America had dropped five rigs week on week, and in the count before that, which was published on May 26, Baker Hughes revealed that North America had dropped seven rigs week on week. The count prior to that, which was posted on May 19, showed that the region had dropped 20 rigs week on week, and the rig count before that one, which was posted on May 12, showed that North America had dropped 16 rigs week on week. Baker Hughes’ May 5 count showed that North America cut seven rigs week on week, its April 28 count revealed that North America dropped 10 rigs week on week, its April 21 count revealed that the region dropped one rig week on week, and its April 14 count revealed that the region dropped 19 rigs week on week. Baker Hughes’ rig count published on April 6 showed that the region dropped 16 rigs week on week, its March 31 rig count showed that North America cut 29 rigs week on week, its March 24 count showed that the region dropped 38 rigs week on week, and its March 17 rig count revealed that the region dropped eight rigs week on week. Baker Hughes’ March 10 rig count showed a 26-rig week on week drop in North America and its March 3 count also revealed that North America had cut two rigs week on week.
Major fire breaks out on Pemex offshore platform - A major fire broke out at a Pemex offshore oil rig in the Cantarell asset off Mexico’s Campeche state on Friday. The federal oil company said in a release the fire, which started on the Nohoch-A bridge, later spread to a nearby compression platform. Images and videos of the incident circulating online showed a platform (pictured) completely engulfed in flames as a fire control vessel showers it with water. According to Pemex, 328 workers were on the compression platform at the time the fire started, and 321 had been evacuated at the time of publishing. Six of them suffered injuries. In its ESG reports, Pemex has shown both its accident rate and their seriousness have risen considerably over the past few years. The accident rate for events that produce incapacitating injuries per million work hours increased from 0.21 in the first quarter of 2020 to 0.58 in the same period this year. Pemex's gravity index, which counts losses in terms of production days by million work hours, rose from eight to 32 in the same period. It peaked in 3Q22 at 40.
Pemex Offshore Fire Injures Six Workers, Status of Seven Others Unknown - Six people were injured and seven remained unaccounted for after an explosion early Friday at an offshore natural gas processing facility operated by Mexican national oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). The state-owned firm said 321 of the 328 workers present at the Nohoch-A gas processing center had been evacuated after a fire broke out at 5:25 a.m. local time. Pemex did not specify the status of the other seven workers. The infrastructure serves the Cantarell shallow water field, which produced 860.4 MMcf/d of natural gas and 158,300 b/d of oil in 2022, according to Pemex’s annual 20-F report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. During his regular morning press briefing on Friday, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador confirmed the explosion and...
Gulf of Mexico Pemex oil platform fire kills at least two | CNN — At least two people were killed and one person is missing after a fire broke out Friday at the Nohoch Alfa offshore platform at the Bay of Campeche, in the Gulf of Mexico, the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) said in a statement.Some 321 workers out of the 328 who were working on the structure when the fire started have already been evacuated, according to Pemex. Four boats have been sent to control the fires on the oil platform.The state-owned oil company said earlier that at least six were injured.In the latest video statement posted to Pemex’s Twitter account, Pemex Director Octavio Romero Oropeza, said the two people who died and the one missing are from the company that was working at the facility and not from Pemex.Oropeza said the part of the platform where the fire started has been completely destroyed, and that Pemex is investigating what caused the fire.He said the firm is now focusing its efforts on looking for the missing person and resuming operations.Some employees of other platforms told CNN Friday that the flames can be seen from the nearby platforms, so the incident appears to be of considerable magnitude.During an earlier press conference, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that the blaze was being battled by Pemex firefighters and the Mexican Navy was also participating in the efforts.Pemex, which has a long record of major industrial accidents at its facilities, said “it will continue to report on the control, extinction of the fire and damage assessment throughout the day.”
Venezuela Looks To Pay Down $20 Billion In U.S. Debt With Oil Exports -- The opposition party in Venezuela is working up a proposal that would see 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day exported to a trustee, who would then pay creditors who have laid claim on various Venezuelan assets abroad. Bondholders and creditors are going after Venezuela’s foreign assets in U.S. court for defaulting on payments—and those defaults, which exceed $20 billion, go beyond the value of Venezuela’s foreign assets. Even the value of Citgo, Venezuela’s most prized possession in the United States. Under this proposal, a newly designated trustee would send 200,000 bpd of crude oil to the United States. The crude oil that would be diverted to the U.S. is currently being sold to China. Parting with 200,000 bpd of its crude oil that generates much-needed revenues for the troubled country would be painful, but the country is selling that oil to China at about a $20 per barrel discount. If Venezuela ends up selling that oil to the United States instead, it could potentially recoup that discount—although it would be used to pay off debt only, not generating revenue to be used elsewhere. If Venezuela is unable or unwilling to follow through with this plan, it faces a potential breakup of oil refiner Citgo, which the courts could order yet this fall. The proposal still requires sign-off from the regime of Nicolas Maduro and Washington. In January, Washington signed off on a license that would allow Chevron to ship 134,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude oil to the United States Gulf Coast. Venezuela currently exports 715,000 bpd of crude oil and refined products based on the most recent data for June—an increase over this same time last year.
Partners in Israel's Leviathan Field to Build $568MM Third Pipeline -Chevron Corp. and its Israeli partners in the Leviathan project have agreed to invest about $568 million for the development of a third pipeline serving the gas field. The subsea conveyor “will allow expansion of the maximum gas supply capacity from the Leviathan project to INGL’s [Israel Natural Gas Lines Ltd.] transmission system from approx. 1.2 BCF [billion cubic feet] per day to approx. 1.4 BCF per day, from mid-2025”, Leviathan’s majority developer NewMed Energy said in a filing with the Israel Securities Authority on Sunday. NewMed owns 45.34 percent of the 127.41-square mile Leviathan natural gas reservoir offshore Israel, which it says is the largest in the Mediterranean with 22.9 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas. Chevron Mediterranean Ltd, which entered the Leviathan consortium following a merger that gave the USA global giant full ownership of Noble Energy Mediterranean Ltd in 2020, holds 39.66 percent. Ratio Energy has a 15 percent stake. Following an investment of $3.75 billion for the initial development of the field, Leviathan began producing December 2019 and has reached 423.78 Bcf in annual output capacity. Leviathan “since has become a cornerstone of gas supply in Israel, Egypt and Jordan”, NewMed says on its website. The field posted natural gas sales of 402.59 Bcf in 2022, according to NewMed’s annual report. Leviathan has two operating pipelines stretching a total of 74.56 miles through which output from the project’s four subsea wells is transported to an offshore platform that processes the gas. The three partners are expanding the project to serve customers in Europe and Asia. “While the current development is strictly based on the Israeli natural gas grid and on a pipeline network, Phase B of the project is expected to include a significant liquefaction component, that will expand Leviathan's customer base beyond the Eastern Mediterranean, to Europe and the Far East”, NewMed says on its portal. “To that end, commercial negotiations are being held with two existing liquefaction facilities in Egypt, while an option for liquifying natural gas on a floating facility anchored in the Israeli EEZ [exclusive economic zone] is being explored.”
Analysts Expect Stronger Growth in Australia's Refined Fuel Demand In a report sent to Rigzone recently, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, noted that they now expect stronger growth in Australia’s refined fuel demand in 2023, “driven by surging demand for air travel, which will be maintained through to the end of the year”. “We have revised up our forecast for Australia’s refined fuel demand in 2023, from predicting two percent year on year growth previously to now predicting six percent year on year growth,” the analysts said in the report. “This will see the country’s total demand increase to 1.065 million barrels per day, just shy of the pre-pandemic 1.088 million barrel per day level of demand seen in 2019,” they added. In the report, the analysts outlined that Australia’s demand for jet fuel/kerosene in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 67 percent, or 55,000 barrels per day, relative to the same period last year. Prior to the pandemic, jet fuel/kerosene had constituted on average 15 percent of the country’s total oil demand throughout 2015-2019, however, pandemic-era restrictions on air travel saw its share decline on average to seven percent in 2021 and 2022, the analysts noted in the report. “Industry trade groups are reporting very strong demand for domestic air travel in Australia at the start of 2023, reportedly more than doubling in comparison to a year ago,” the analysts said in the report. “Moreover, there is room for further growth given that domestic air travel still remains at approximately 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels,” they added. “The recovery will also be supported by the revival of air travel routes to mainland China since the country’s economic reopening. Prior to the pandemic China stood as the largest source of visitors to Australia,” they continued. The latest statistical review of world energy, which was published by the Energy Institute (EI) last month, showed that Australia’s total oil liquids consumption was 1.012 million barrels per day in 2022, 944,000 barrels per day in 2021, 919,000 barrels per day in 2020, and 1.069 million barrels per day in 2019. The highest total oil liquids consumption year for Australia, according to the report, which stretched back to 2012, was 2018, when the country was shown to have consumed 1.080 million barrels per day. The year with the lowest consumption was 2020, the report highlighted. From January 3, 2020, to June 28, 2023, 5.56pm CEST, there have been 11.495 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Australia with 21,685 deaths, according to the latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO). As of March 24, 2023, a total of 65.492 million vaccine doses have been administered in the country, WHO figures show.
Petrobras Shifts to Buying Assets after Divestments Buoyed by the response to its first bond issue in two years, Petroleo Brasileiro SA is considering issuing more debt this year and is poised to buy assets after spending most of the past decade selling refineries and oil-exploration blocks. Strong cash generation combined with low production costs puts Brazil’s state-run oil giant in a comfortable position, Chief Financial Officer Sergio Caetano Leite said in an interview, adding it’s time for the company to “take a bigger step.” “Petrobras had a divestment program,” he said. “The company has now changed sides of the table.” The new appetite for M&A doesn’t mean the company will go on an issuance spree to finance acquisitions or boost investments, according to Leite. Follow-up bond issuances will serve to improve the company’s debt profile, he said. Petrobras’ gross debt dropped to the lowest level since 2010 in the first quarter to $53.3 billion. That’s close to the low end of a range between $50 billion and $65 billion set in its five-year strategic plan, which the new CFO said he sees as appropriate. “The idea is not to put Petrobras into debt,” he said to assuage concerns about margins and the speed of investment in energy transition projects. Investments or mergers and acquisitions should have their own financing structure, according to Leite. Leite took over in March as part of the new executive board appointed by Chief Executive Officer Jean Paul Prates who vowed to halt “irrational” asset sales and said Petrobras should consider raising it stake at petrochemicals Braskem. “If we need to be aggressive we should owe a little more — $55 billion would be fine,” said Leite, stressing the global turmoiled economic and geopolitical scenario requires prudence. While Petrobras’ debt ratios may bottom up a bit, the company is still seeking to reduce its cost of capital, in part by canceling its more expensive debt early, Leite said ahead of visiting foreign investors, including in London, this week. The firm’s weighted cost of debt rose to 6.5% at the end of the first quarter compared to 5.9% in 2020, according to regulatory filings. Last week, the company sold its first dollar-denominated benchmark-size bond deal in two years, and demand suggested additional transactions could be viable, Leite said. Petrobras’ debt arrangers collected as much as $6.3 billion of potential orders out of 386 investors when a 10-year bond was preliminary discussed at a yield of about 7.25%, according to the CFO. That allowed Petrobras to reduce the offered interest and place $1.25 billion of notes due 2033 on June 26 at a yield of 6.625% with over 327 investors.
Where Do Total Recoverable Oil Reserves Stand? --In a statement sent to Rigzone recently, Rystad Energy revealed that, according to its research, total global recoverable oil reserves now stand at 1.624 trillion barrels. Rystad highlighted in the statement that, since the company’s previous reserves report, 30 billion barrels of crude oil have been extracted, “the same level seen in 2018 and 2019”, and revealed that 84 billion barrels have been added in fields, discoveries, and exploration prospects. Increased reserves in producing fields and approved projects in 2022 amount to 71 billion barrels, while 13 billion barrels were found in new discoveries during 2022, Rystad pointed out. Although 1.624 trillion barrels of oil are technically recoverable, fewer than 1.3 trillion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 at an average Brent price of $50 per barrel, Rystad noted in the statement. “The upstream sector is working hard to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from oilfields, however, even with these mitigation measures and governmental efforts, if global warming is to be successfully limited to 1.6°C, only half of the world’s recoverable reserves would be required,” Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad said in a company statement. In its statement, Rystad revealed that Saudi Arabia ranks first in terms of total recoverable oil with 273 billion barrels. The U.S. ranks second with 186 billion barrels, Russia ranks third with 140 billion barrels, and Canada ranks fourth with 122 billion barrels, Rystad outlined in the statement. In a graph accompanying the statement, the majority of Saudi Arabia’s recoverable oil is categorized as ‘other onshore’, while the majority of U.S. recoverable oil is categorized as shale/tight oil. The majority of Russia’s recoverable oil is also categorized as other onshore in the graph and the majority of Canada’s recoverable oil is categorized as oil sands.According to the last statistical review of world energy to show oil reserves information, which was published by BP in 2021, the world’s total proved oil reserves stood at 1.732 trillion barrels at the end of 2020. Of this figure, 1.472 trillion was found in non-OECD countries, 1.214 trillion was found in OPEC countries, 517.7 billion was in non-OPEC countries, 260 billion was in OECD countries, and 2.4 billion was in Europe, BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy showed. The country with the most proved oil reserves at the end of 2020 was Venezuela, with 303.8 billion barrels, according to the review, which placed Saudi Arabia in second with 297.5 billion barrels, and Canada in third with 168.1 billion barrels. The world’s total proved reserves stood at 1.734 trillion barrels at the end of 2019, 1.636 trillion barrels at the end of 2010, and 1.300 trillion barrels at the end of 2000, the review highlighted.
Russia's Rusty Oil Tanker Fleet Sets Sail With Newer Ships --An armada of tankers ferrying sanctioned oil around the globe is starting to get younger, bucking a months-long trend of using the world’s oldest and most dangerous vessels. Shortly after President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, hundreds of aging tankers were snapped up by a cohort of faceless traders, intermediaries and investors to keep Russian oil flowing. By some estimates, the purchases, which added to vessels that were already transporting crude for Venezuela and Iran, created a more than 900-strong dark fleet. Now, the average age of the ships being purchased is declining, according to data from VesselsValue Ltd., a researcher of shipping deals. Two industry executives said that clampdowns in Asia were likely catalysts for the shift, following a spate of detentions in recent months over safety issues. China, one of the top consumers of Russian and Iranian oil, recently ramped up checks on older tankers at the key port of Qingdao, forcing some to wait more than a month to unload their cargo. Anxiety over aging ships was heightened when a 26-year old vessel exploded off Malaysia in May. Singapore has also detained tankers for failing safety inspections at a record clip in recent months. Newer vessels, provided they are well maintained, should help to allay fears by some importers over their seaworthiness, though the fleet remains awash with vintage ships. “Safety concerns surrounding older vessels is one of the reasons that buyers are opting for newer vessels,” said Rebecca Galanopoulos Jones, a senior analyst at VesselsValue. The average age of tankers being sold to undisclosed buyers — one defining characteristic of a ship being part of the dark fleet — fell to 15 years this month, according to VesselsValue. As recently as October, it was 19 years. The specifics of dark fleet tankers vary. Often, though, they are older vessels without industry-standard insurance or other western services, and owners that are tough to trace. Ships are near or over 20, an age at which vessels would typically be scrapped. Certain countries take a hard view on older ships. In addition to the Chinese checks, India moved to ban vessels older than 25 years of age from entering its ports earlier this year. “Some shipowners are getting more comfortable with handling restricted crude such as Russian flows, as they see that this trade is here to stay,” said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd. “They’re now more willing to invest in younger ships that’ll meet wider industry standards for longer.” When buying for the Russia trade first emerged, it made sense to purchase the oldest vessels available. Those ships are the cheapest, and operating without western services enabled them to bypass many of the sanctions in place on oil exports, including a $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian crude that was imposed by the Group of Seven. The surge in demand for ships has extended the lifespan for many. Not a single large crude tanker has been scrapped for seven months, something that hasn’t happened since at least the mid-1970s, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. Tankers are also spending more time in transit. The pool of buyers for Russian crude has shrunk since the war, meaning cargoes that used to be hauled just a couple of days along the Baltic Sea now travel for weeks to get to China and India.
Oil spill in Russia's north threatens 'major damage' to environment | Reuters - A pipeline burst in Russia's northwestern Komi Republic threatens to leak 1,000 cubic metres of oil into a nearby river and cause serious environmental damage, the head of state environment watchdog Rosprirodnadzor warned on Monday. "There was a burst in an oil pipeline near Usinsk. According to our calculations, 1,000 cubic metres of oil could get into the Kolva River," the official, Svetlana Radionova, wrote on the Telegram messenger app."Oil products have gotten into the ground and the water, this is major damage to the environment," she wrote.Local authorities said the incident occurred on Sunday in a pipeline in the Yuzhno-Osh oil field, operated by Nobel Oil LLC. A "high alert" regime is in effect in the area.No comment was immediately available from Nobel Oil.In May 2021, a pipeline spill in Komi leaked 100 tonnes of oil, including nine tonnes that flowed into the Kolva river.The energy-rich region witnessed one of the worst oil spills in Russian history in August 1994, when its ageing pipeline network sprang a leak that was officially said to have totalled 79,000 tonnes, or 585,000 barrels. Independent estimates put the figure at up to 2 million barrels.
Oil spill from Shell pipeline impacts farms and a river in a long-polluted part of Nigeria -—A new oil spill at a Shell facility in Nigeria has contaminated farmland and a river, upending livelihoods in the fishing and farming communities in part of the Niger Delta, which has long endured environmental pollution caused by the oil industry. The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency, or NOSDRA, told The Associated Press that the spill came from the Trans-Niger Pipeline operated by Shell that crosses through communities in the Eleme area of Ogoniland, a region where the London-based energy giant has faced decades-long local pushback to its oil exploration. The volume of oil spilled has not been determined, but activists have published images of polluted farmland, water surfaces blighted by oil sheens and dead fish mired in sticky crude. While spills are frequent in the region due to vandalism from oil thieves and a lack of maintenance to pipelines, according to the UN Environmental Program, activists call this a “major one.” It is “one of the worst in the last 16 years in Ogoniland,” said Fyneface Dumnamene, an environmental activist whose non-profit monitors spills in the Delta region. It began on June 11. “It lasted for over a week, bursts into Okulu River—which adjoins other rivers and ultimately empties into the Atlantic Ocean—and affects several communities and displaces more than 300 fishers,” said Dumnamene of the Youths and Environmental Advocacy Center. He said tides have sent oil sheens about six miles further to creeks near the nation’s oil business capital, Port Harcourt. Shell stopped production in Ogoniland more than 20 years ago amid deadly unrest from residents protesting environmental damage, but the Trans-Niger Pipeline still sends crude from oil fields in other areas through the region’s communities to export terminals. The leak has been contained but treating the fallout from the spill at farms and the Okulu River, which runs through communities, has stalled, NOSDRA Director General Idris Musa said. “Response has been delayed,” Musa said, blaming protesting residents. “But engagement is going on.” The apparent deadlock stems from mistrust and past grievances in the riverine and oil-abundant Niger Delta region, which is mostly home to minority ethnic groups who accuse the Nigerian government of marginalization. Africa’s largest economy overwhelmingly depends on the Niger Delta’s oil resources for its earnings, but pollution from that production has denied residents access to clean water, hurt farming and fishing, and heightened the risk of violence, activists say. The communities “are very angry because of the destruction of their livelihoods resulting from the obsoleteness of Shell’s equipment and are concerned the regulator and Shell will blame sabotage by the residents,” Dumnamene said.
With salvage ops underway, Dutch govt urged to step in for ‘safe and environmentally sound’ FSO recycling - With inspections and oil transfer preparations almost out of the way, salvage operations to transfer the oil from a rapidly decaying floating storage offshore (FSO) unit moored off the Red Sea coast of Yemen to a safe vessel are expected to start soon, as part of the UN-led efforts to prevent a potential catastrophic oil spill. This raises concerns about the facility in which this tanker will be recycled with many calling on the Netherlands to take these matters into its own hands.While the salvage operations to secure the 376-metre-long FSO Safer were delayed multiple times in the past due to lack of funding, the operations for the removal of the oil onboard this decaying oil tanker are now taking place off the coast of Yemen. The plan to address the threat posed by the FSO Safer comprises two critical tracks. This covers an emergency operation to transfer the oil from the FSO to a temporary vessel and the installation of a long-term replacement vessel or another capacity equivalent to the FSO within a target of 18 months.This FSO is in danger of exploding and unleashing a disaster, estimated to have the potential for a massive oil spill four times worse than the Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska in 1989. Therefore, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) signed an agreement in March 2023 to purchase a very large crude carrier (VLCC), the Nautica, to take on the oil from the FSO Safer by emergency ship-to-ship transfer.The Nautica left Zhousha in China on 6 April and was expected to arrive in the Red Sea in early May to mitigate the threat posed by the ageing supertanker in an advanced state of decay, as the cost of cleanup alone would be $20 billion if this oil spill is not prevented. The FSO Safer has been moored some 4.8 nautical miles southwest of the Ras Issa peninsula on Yemen’s west coast for more than 30 years but the war between the pro-government coalition and Houthi rebels saw offloading from the vessel, as well as maintenance, grind to a halt in 2015. Moreover, UNDP inked an agreement with Boskalis, through its subsidiary SMIT Salvage, to remove oil from the tanker and the firm’s scope of work consists of a number of phases with the initial onsite phase focusing on a thorough inspection of the vessel and its cargo and creating a safe working environment. To this end, the multipurpose support vessel Ndeavor was prepared in the Netherlands.
Nigeria Looks To Boost Oil Production To 1.7 Million Bpd By Year-End - Nigeria, OPEC’s largest producer in Africa, aims to significantly increase its oil production to up to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by November 2023, hoping to win a higher quota in the OPEC+ agreement, Gabriel Tanimu Aduda, Permanent Secretary at Nigeria’s Ministry of Petroleum Resources, told Energy Intelligence on the sidelines of the OPEC+ seminar in Vienna this week. Nigeria has consistently failed to produce to its quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The combination of pipeline vandalism and oil theft with a lack of investment in capacity has made Nigeria the biggest laggard in crude oil production in the OPEC+ alliance. Oil theft and pipeline vandalism have long plagued Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry, driving majors out of the country and often resulting in force majeure at the key crude oil export terminals.Nigeria’s quota was 1.742 million bpd earlier this year, but due to its underproduction of more than 400,000 bpd, the output cap for Nigeria was lowered to 1.38 million bpd at the OPEC+ meeting in early June.The required production level for Nigeria may be updated to equal the average production that can be achieved in 2024, as assessed by the three independent sources (IHS, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy) specialized in oil upstream by the next OPEC+ meeting to be held by the end of 2023, OPEC said.Nigeria’s stated Production Plan in 2024 is 1.578 million bpd, subject to verification, and if verified, then the number will be reflected as required production for 2024, OPEC added. Nigeria’s oil production is around 1 million bpd below its capacity. The government has cited a lack of investments, a shortage of funding sources because of the energy transition, and insecurity among the factors driving the situation. “Currently, Nigeria has the technical allowable capacity to produce about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. However, arising from the highlighted challenges, our current production hovers around 1.5 million barrels of oil and condensate per day,” Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), said in May.
Iraq plans to increase oil production to over 5 mln bpd - The Iraqi Parliamentary Oil and Gas Committee announced that the government had made plans to increase oil production to more than 5 million barrels per day (bpd). Member of the committee, MP Zeinab Juma al-Mousawi, told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that they support the government's directions to increase oil and gas reserves and national production of crude oil and gas. Mousawi noted that the committee also backs processing the gas associated with oil operations and converting it into wealth and productive energy that covers the local need, especially electric power plants, the petrochemical industry, fertilizers, and others. It called upon foreign companies to export the surplus to world markets to achieve financial revenues that supply the state treasury to support the national economy and sustainable development and provide new job opportunities. Mousawi reiterated the need to pay attention to the fields managed by national companies to create competition with international companies and increase the net profits of national companies. She pointed out that Iraqi oil is one of the most imported oils to countries such as India, China, and South Korea, with 54 percent of the Iraqi oil since the beginning of the year. The lawmaker indicated that Iraq achieves billions of dollars from oil sales, contributing to the country's general budget in investment and operational fields. Meanwhile, the Iraqi oil minister announced that crude oil exports averaged 3.3 million bpd in May.
Analysts Talk Saudi Oil Cut Extension -The markets immediately reacted to Saudi Arabia’s production cut extension announcement yesterday, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon and Senior Analyst Patricio Valdivieso outlined in an oil trading alert sent to Rigzone this morning. In that alert, the analysts highlighted that ICE Brent front month prices increased to $76.5 per barrel, from $74.8 per barrel, “minutes after the announcement”. “Back in June, Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary cut of one million barrels per day (on top of the 500,000 barrel per day voluntary cut announced in April, running from May until December 2023), which was initially planned for July, but that could be extended, as we had mentioned in our June 4 OPEC+ alert,” the analysts said in the latest Rystad alert. “Rystad Energy believes that this move reinforces our thesis that this mechanism of a possible monthly extension of Saudi cuts limits downside price pressure for the rest of the year, regardless of the macroeconomic environment,” they added. According to a chart included in the alert, Rystad now forecasts that Saudi crude production will come in at nine million barrels per day in July and August. Leon and Valdivieso highlighted in the alert that this is the country’s lowest level since June 2021 and over two million barrels per day lower than September 2022. The chart shows that Saudi Arabia’s crude production was 10 million barrels per day in June and 11 million barrels per day back in September last year. Looking ahead, the chart forecasts that Saudi crude output will hit 9.9 million barrels per day in September this year, then 10 million barrels per day in October, November, and December 2023. “With this extension of Saudi cuts into August, our liquids balances now show a jaw-dropping 3.6 million barrel per day deficit for August, following a 3.0 million barrel per day deficit in July,” Leon and Valdivieso said in Rystad’s latest alert. “Overall, the estimated market deficit for the second half of 2023 is 2.5 million barrels per day now,” the analysts added. Examining a possible extension of the Saudi voluntary cut of one million barrels per day beyond August, the analysts said in the alert that “this will depend on several factors, such as the macroeconomic environment, price evolution, and demand recovery”. “Our latest oil market weekly report shows that global road traffic has actually fallen below 2019 levels in the last three weeks,” the analysts added. “Global aviation traffic has struggled to recover and is still 20 percent below 2019 levels,” the analysts continued.
Mysterious Cluster Of Saudi Oil Tankers Off Egypt Raises Storage Concerns - The number of Saudi supertankers carrying oil and sitting offshore Egypt increased again on Friday, according to vessel tracking data monitored by Bloomberg, after signs emerged earlier this week that the previous large cluster had started to clear. An unusual cluster of mostly Saudi supertankers loaded with oil has been idling off Egypt’s Red Sea coast since early June. Signs emerged at the end of June that the cluster may have started to clear as two of the 11 tankers were no longer anchored near the Ain Sukhna oil terminal off Egypt.As of June 16, ten very large crude carriers (VLCCs) carrying around 20 million barrels of oil were floating off Ain Sukhna and another two supertankers were heading to the same location, Vortexa data showed. All 10 floating supertankers were stationary for seven days or more and most of these cargoes loaded during or after the second half of May, Jay Maroo, Head of Market Intelligence & Analysis (MENA) at Vortexa, wrote in a note.It wasn’t immediately clear what has caused the accumulation of tankers, while Saudi Arabia hasn’t commented on the build-up of cargoes off Egypt. Most supertankers carrying Saudi Arabian crude typically deliver the oil to Ain Sukhna without transiting the Suez Canal. The most likely reason is a lack of storage, according to Bloomberg.After some of the cluster had cleared in recent days, the number of supertankers off Ain Sukhna increased again to eight, including six Saudi-owned supertankers carrying around 12 million barrels of oil, the most recent data compiled by Bloomberg showed. The tanker in this group that had arrived the earliest has been floating for three weeks now, per Bloomberg’s estimates. Around 10.5 million barrels of Saudi crude are currently sitting in floating storage off Ain Sukhna, half compared to the middle of June, Reuters reported on Friday, quoting Vortexa. Five Saudi tankers off Egypt are currently considered floating storage, while two other vessels loaded with around 4 million barrels of Saudi crude are also waiting but do not technically count as floating storage yet, Vortexa’s Maroo told Reuters.
OPEC keeps June output steady ahead of anticipated dip in July oil production -The Organisation of Oil Producing Countries or OPEC kept its production steady in June, a Bloomberg report said. According to the report, the 13-member OPEC on an average produced 28.57 million barrels a day, a modest rise of 80,000 barrels a day from May. However, oil production in July is expected to decline as Saudi Arabia is expected to cut oil production by another 1 million barrels per day. The oil-rich kingdom is likely to continue with its additional oil cut in August too, media reports said. It is not just the world's biggest oil producer that has decided to further cut oil production. Russia, another major oil producer, which has been under Western sanctions after the Ukraine war, has also promised to cut its oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August. In April this year, OPEC+, which includes the OPEC countries and Russia, agreed to voluntarily cut their oil production from May onward. As per reports, the grouping had decided to cut oil production by 1.15 million barrels per day. The oil producers' grouping has been cutting oil supply to lift up prices since November last year due to weaker Chinese demand and rising US supply. However, it been unable to move oil prices from the range of $70-$80 a barrel. Initially, there were expectations that the output cut will add pressure on the global oil prices. However, oil prices have dipped about 12 percent in 2023. That is largely due to a lackluster post-pandemic recovery in China and fears of a global recession later this year. While rising oil prices add to the inflationary pressure across the world, it is good news for top oil producers like Saudi Arabia. The West Asian kingdom is heavily dependent on oil to manage its government budget. According to the International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia needs global oil prices to be over $80 in order to balance its yearly budget.
Saudis and Russia Extend Oil Supply Cuts - Saudi Arabia will prolong its unilateral oil production cut by one month, keeping a lid on supply amid persisting fears over the global economy. Its OPEC+ ally Russia also announced fresh curbs on exports. The kingdom will maintain the 1 million barrel-a-day reduction — launched this month on top of existing curbs agreed with OPEC+ — into August and could extend it further, according to a statement published by state-run Saudi Press Agency. The country will pump about 9 million barrels a day, the lowest in several years, sacrificing sales volumes for what has so far been a minimal reward in terms of higher prices. Oil futures picked up after the announcement, with Brent crude rising 0.9% to $76.12 a barrel as of 11:27 a.m. in London. The Saudi effort will be assisted by Russia, which will reduce oil exports by 500,000 barrels a day in August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in comments published by his press service. He later added that the country will also aim to reduce production by this amount. So far this year, Moscow has dragged its heels on cutbacks agreed with OPEC+ as it faces pressure to keep funds flowing to its war against Ukraine. The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance aims to achieve balance in global oil markets and avoid an accumulation in inventories, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told the state-run WAM news agency. The UAE is leading member of the coalition. “Faced with little investor confidence and very narrow range-bound trading, Saudi Arabia had virtually no other option but to extend the production cut,” Lackluster demand in China has capped crude near $76 a barrel, below the level that the International Monetary Fund believes Saudi Arabia needs to cover its budget. Against this backdrop, the extension of the kingdom’s cuts was no surprise, with almost all traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicting this outcome. Oil prices were widely expected to rally this year, but have instead sagged about 11% due to fears about the strength of the economy as interest rates climb. Wall Street forecasters including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have abandoned projections for the return of $100-a-barrel crude. In theory, the prolonged supply curbs shouldn’t be needed as global oil markets look set to tighten during the second half of the year. OPEC’s Vienna-based research department is projecting that world oil inventories are already on track to deplete at a brisk clip of around 2 million barrels a day. Yet the measures revealed by Riyadh and Moscow on Monday suggest they’re wary about the narrative of an increasingly tightening market. When he first announced the extra production cuts last month, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters that he “will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market.” Consuming nations like the US have railed against the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies for their policy of constricting supplies, accusing the cartel of exacerbating inflation and endangering a fragile economic recovery. The International Energy Agency has condemned the group for laying “siege” to vulnerable consumers. The Saudis indicated in their statement that further extensions are possible, and Prince Abdulaziz — who will address an energy conference hosted by OPEC in Vienna on Wednesday — has promised to keep traders in “suspense” on future plans.
Saudi Arabia, Russia deepen oil cuts, sending oil prices higher | Daily Sabah - Oil rose Monday after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced supply cuts for August, overshadowing concern over a global economic slowdown and the potential for further increases to U.S. interest rates. Saudi Arabia on Monday said it would extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month to include August, the state news agency said. Shortly after the Saudi announcement, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow would reduce its oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August, further tightening global supplies. The moves are seen as the latest attempts by major producers to stabilize markets rocked by factors, including continued fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China's faltering economic recovery. The cut by Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, was first announced after a June meeting of oil producers and took effect at the weekend. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud noted at the time that it was "extendable." In a report on Monday announcing that the cut would continue through August, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said it "can be extended" further, citing an Energy Ministry source. Monday's extension announcement leaves the kingdom's production at approximately 9 million bpd. Russia's move came "as part of efforts to ensure that the oil market remains balanced." The announcement by Novak, in charge of Russia's energy policy, came on the back of cuts to the country's oil production this year by the same volume as part of Moscow's response to Western sanctions levied over the conflict in Ukraine. The cuts amount to 1.5% of global supply and bring the total pledged by OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, to 5.16 million bpd. OPEC+ already has cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary reductions of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April and extended to December 2024. "Saudi Arabia is hoping to bring down global inventories over the summer to support prices," "There will be little expectation that Russia will fully comply with this latest commitment, but the key thing here is that it's a public statement of commitment to Saudi Arabia's market management strategy." Brent crude futures were up $1.04 at $76.45 a barrel by 9:42 a.m. GMT after gaining 0.8% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 97 cents to $71.61, gaining 1.1% in the previous session. "Investors are turning upbeat as the second half of the year kicks off; they expect tighter oil balance and buoyant equities also suggest that recession will be avoided, albeit probably narrowly," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. Prices had fallen earlier in the session after eurozone manufacturing activity contracted faster than initially expected in June, with persistent policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) squeezing finances. Fears of a further economic slowdown denting fuel demand had grown on Friday as U.S. inflation continued to outpace the central bank's 2% target and stoked expectations it would raise interest rates again. Higher interest rates could strengthen the dollar, making commodities like oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Factory activity growth in China, the world's largest crude importer, also slowed in June as sentiment and recruitment cooled in sluggish market conditions, the Caixin/S&P Global private sector survey showed. Recent efforts by OPEC+ to bolster prices by reducing output have not succeeded. Brent is down some 11% since the beginning of the year and WTI is down 7%, as a sluggish recovery in China and worries about the U.S. economy weighs on demand forecasts. The average price of Russian Urals was $52.17 per barrel during the first half of 2023, down from $84.09 during the same period last year, the Russian Finance Ministry said Monday. That drop reflects the effects of a price cap imposed in December by a coalition involving the Group of Seven (G-7) leading economies, the European Union and Australia. Saudi Arabia is counting on high oil prices to fund an ambitious reform agenda that could shift its economy from fossil fuels. Oil giant Saudi Aramco, the jewel of the kingdom's economy, said it recorded profits totaling $161.1 billion last year, allowing Riyadh to notch up its first annual budget surplus in nearly a decade. Analysts say the kingdom needs oil to be priced at $80 per barrel to balance its budget, which is well above recent averages.
The Oil Market Erased its Gains and Sold Off Ahead of the Fourth of July Holiday -- On Monday, the oil market erased its early gains and sold off ahead of the Fourth of July holiday on Tuesday. Early in the morning, the market rallied to a high of $71.77 after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced supply cuts for August overshadowing any concern over the economy. Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for another month to include August, adding that the cut could be extended beyond that month. Shortly after the Saudi announcement, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said Russia would cut its oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August. The cuts amount to 1.5% of global supply and bring the total pledged by OPEC+ to 5.16 million bpd. The oil market later erased most of its gains as it traded back towards the $70.00 level by mid-morning. It held support at that level for much of the day before further selling pushed the market to a low of $69.69 ahead of the close. The August WTI contract settled down 85 cents at $69.79, while the September Brent contract settled down 76 cents at $74.65. The product markets settled in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 7.03 cents at $2.3773 and the RB market settling down 8.25 cents at $2.4624. The state news agency said Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary cut of one million bpd for another month to include August. The SPA quoted an official source from the Ministry of Energy as saying "The kingdom's production for the month of August 2023 will be approximately 9 million barrels per day." The source added that the voluntary cut could be extended beyond August. The official said "This additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets."Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said Russia will cut its oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August.Algeria’s Energy Ministry said the country will cut oil output by an extra 20,000 barrels in August to support efforts by Saudi Arabia and Russia to balance and stabilize oil markets. The voluntary cut will be in addition to the 48,000 barrel reduction decided in April.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 129,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 7th, increasing available refining capacity by 915,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to decrease to 92,000 bpd in the week ending July 14th.Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 40 on Line 1, its main gasoline line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina. The current allocation is for the pipeline segment north of Collins, Mississippi.U.S. manufacturing fell further in June, reaching levels last seen when the economy was reeling from the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.0 in June, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 46.9 in May. That marked the eighth consecutive month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the Great Recession.
Oil prices up, stocks halt on supply, economy concerns – Oil prices rose Tuesday by more than 1 percent for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crudes, news agencies reported. Markets are weighing August output cuts by top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia against economic uncertainties worldwide, according to Reuters. Brent crude futures were up $0.99, or 1.3 percent, to $75.64 a barrel, and WTI crude sold at $70.74 per barrel, up $0.95, or 1.4 percent, Tuesday morning. On Monday, Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day to August, Agence France-Press (AFP) reported. Whereas Russia and Algeria reportedly volunteered to lower their output and export levels for August by 500,000 and 20,000 barrels per day, respectively. In light of the announced production and export cuts, global oil supplies will drop by some 5.36 million barrels per day next month, August 2023, compared to August 2022. Further output drops are expected in August. As several members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) are unable to meet their output quotas, Nonetheless, Tuesday morning trades suggest little changed is forecast in oil dynamics despite Monday's announcements, "Only a significant break above $77 will suggest something has changed, otherwise range-bound trade could well continue," The upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report, to come out Friday, will be closely watched for clues on the trajectory of monetary policy, Although the Fed had pinned the rates at 5 to 5.25 percent and had paused on further hikes in June, it is possible that the central bank will have to raise the rates in July or August. In fact, it is forecast that US interest rates may hit or surpass a historic 6 percent in the coming months.
Oil Futures Rally on Saudi, Russian Cuts Ahead of API Stock Data -- New York oil futures rallied more than 2% on Wednesday, and Brent crude settled slightly higher after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary production cuts until the end of August in a bid to offset weak industrial demand across advanced economies. Saudi Energy Ministry Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday the kingdom would extend July's production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) through August to support "the stability and balance of oil markets." That will keep the Gulf nation's output at 9 million bpd -- the lowest average production rate since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. "Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with its partners will do whatever is necessary to support the market. It will not be left unattended," said the Saudi energy minister Wednesday morning at OPEC's annual seminar in Vienna. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said his country will cut production and exports by an additional 500,000 bpd in August. The most recent data published by Bloomberg supports this statement, showing Russian oil exports from the eastern ports of Primorsk and Kozmino declined by almost 700,000 bpd over the final weeks of June, signaling that promised production cuts are indeed taking place. Along with reductions Saudi Arabia and Russians have already made, and ongoing cuts by other countries in OPEC+, total curtailments will, on paper at least, amount to 3.1 million bpd, or about 3% of global consumption. That is a gigantic curtailment to global supplies, but the output cuts have failed to make any meaningful difference for oil prices, with Brent crude stuck between $70 and $80 per barrel (bbl) since May 1. The underlying reason behind the market's muted reaction is weak manufacturing data signaling a full-fledged recession in global industrial hubs like China and the United States. Industrial data released earlier this week showed U.S. manufacturing activity slid deeper into contraction last month to the lowest level since May 2020 at 46%. The new data largely reflects companies continuing to reduce output as demand deteriorates and optimism about the second half of 2023 weakens. Also on Wednesday, oil traders positioned ahead of the releases of weekly U.S. inventory data beginning with preliminary survey from the American Petroleum Institute and followed by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Both reports are delayed one day this week due to the observance of U.S. Independence Day on Tuesday. Analysts anticipate U.S. crude oil inventories likely decreased by 1.6 million bbl for the final week of June, with estimates ranging from a drawdown of 3.4 million bbl to a build of 2.2 million bbl. The expectations for a drawdown come despite a U.S. Department of Energy report indicating it disbursed 1.4 million bbl of crude last week from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That would bring those emergency crude supplies, already at a 40-year low, to 347.2 million bbl. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate August futures added $2 per bbl to $71.79 per bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract for September edged up $0.40 to $76.65 per bbl following a $1.60 advance on Tuesday when the U.S. market was closed for Independence Day. NYMEX RBOB August futures advanced $0.0559 to $2.5183 per gallon and the ULSD August contract rallied $0.1160 to $2.4933 per gallon.
Trading on Wednesday Appeared to Narrow the Spread Between Brent and WTI - On Wednesday, the oil market posted an outside trading day as the market weighed the supply cuts announced earlier this week by Saudi Arabia and Russia against the concerns over the global economy. The market traded mostly sideways during Tuesday’s short trading session before it sold off to a low of $69.90 in overnight trading. Given there was no settlement on Tuesday because of the Independence Day holiday, trading on Wednesday appeared to narrow the spread between Brent and WTI, with WTI catching up with Brent’s gains the previous day. Early in the session, the market seems to have come under pressure again due to concerns over a slowdown in the global economy and future interest rate increases in the U.S. and Europe. A private sector survey showed China’s services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June. However, the oil market bounced off its lows and never looked back as it rallied to a high of $72.17 on the additional supply cuts announced this week and ahead of the weekly petroleum stock reports. The August WTI contract settled up $2.00 at $71.79 and the September Brent contract settled up 40 cents at $76.65. The product markets were also well supported, with the heating oil market settling up 1.16 cents at $2.4933 and the RB market settling up 5.59 cents at $2.5183. In a statement, OPEC said its ministers met on the sidelines of the 8th OPEC seminar in Vienna where they reviewed the market conditions and agreed to continue consultation with their non-OPEC counterparts, in their continued efforts to support a stable and balanced oil market. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said new joint oil output cuts agreed by Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier this week have again proven sceptics wrong about Saudi-Russian energy relations. He said OPEC+ will do whatever necessary to support the market. He also said IEA data anomalies create market distortions. The United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei, said additional oil output and export cuts made by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this week should be enough to help balance the oil market. Kuwait’s Oil Minister said that his country hopes to have a higher oil production quota when it ramps up capacity and Kuwait remains committed to OPEC decisions. The minister also said his country hopes to reach 3.2 million bpd of production capacity before the end of 2024. Morgan Stanley said it expects Brent prices to moderate towards $70/barrel as the market’s focus shifts from the second half of 2023 stock draws to the first half of 2024 stock builds. Morgan Stanley lowered its oil price forecasts, predicting a market surplus in the first half of 2024 with non-OPEC supply growing faster than demand next year. The bank cut its Brent price outlook for the third quarter this year to $75/barrel from $77.50/barrel and lowered its fourth quarter forecast to $70/barrel from $75/barrel. It also cut its forecasts for 2024 by $5, and now sees prices at $70/barrel in the first quarter, at $72.50/barrel in the second, and at $75/barrel and $80/barrel for the final two quarters, respectively. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 129,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 7th, increasing available refining capacity by 915,000 bpd.
Oil Prices Gain After US Inventory Drop -- Oil prices traded higher on Thursday after industry data showed a decline in the crude oil inventories in the United States. Overall gains, however, were limited by a stronger dollar, expectations of more U.S. rate hikes and lingering concerns about China's economic recovery. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose half a percent to $77 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were up 0.6 percent at $72.22. Data released Wednesday by the industry group American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels in the week to June 30, far more than expectations for a draw of 1.8 million barrels. Official numbers from the Energy Information Administration are due later in the session. Meanwhile, the dollar has drawn some strength from the hawkish Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday showing that Fed officials expect more rate hikes, but at a slower pace. As U.S. recession worries ease, investors await the all-important U.S. jobs report due on Friday for additional clues on the economic and rate outlook.
WTI Rebounds After Crude/Product Draws; Biden Admin Drains SPR for 14th Straight Week --Oil prices are down this morning after the 'good news is bad news' data from the US offsets additional production-cut announcements this week from OPEC-plus members Saudi Arabia and Russia. Crude remains about 10% lower this year, with China’s lackluster economic recovery and higher US and European interest rates weighing on the outlook for demand. The surge in borrowing costs is leading to lower global oil inventories, possibly setting prices up for spikes further down the line.“The oil balance will likely tighten and so will financial conditions,” .“Persistent recession worries will probably encumber but not prevent oil from marching higher.”After announcing earlier this week that it would extend voluntary output cuts, Saudi Arabia lifted its flagship Arab Light crude price to Asia on Thursday and also boosted prices for Europe.API
- Crude: -4.382mm
- Cushing: +0.289mm
- Gasoline: +1.615mm
- Distillates: +0.604mm
DOE
- Crude: -1.508mm (-2.7mm exp)
- Cushing: -400k
- Gasoline: -2.555mm
- Distillates: -1.045mm
After last week's huge draw, expectations were for a smaller draw (which API showed last night), but the actual crude draw was smaller - just 1.5mm barrels. Stocks at the Cushing hub fell 400k barrels and products also saw notable draws... Despite reports from late last week that the Biden administration actually bought 3.2mm barrels oil to refill the SPR (delivery of the oil is scheduled Sept. 1-30 to the Big Hill SPR storage site in Texas), the overall level of the SPR saw a 1.46mm drain. That raised the total draw on US crude stockpiles to almost 3mm barrels. That is the 14th straight week of SPR drains...US refinery utilization rates dropped for a fourth straight week to 91.1% of capacity, the lowest since May. On a seasonal basis, it’s the lowest level seen since the pandemic. US crude production rose back to cycle highs at 12.4mm b/d despite after rig counts having tumbled to their lowest since April 2022...
Oil near flat as tighter supplies offset US rate hike risk – CNA - Oil prices were near flat on Thursday as the market weighed tighter U.S. crude supplies with the higher likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike that could dent energy demand. Brent crude futures settled 13 cents lower at $76.52 a barrel, after a 0.5 per cent gain the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1 cent to $71.80 a barrel, after rising 2.9 per cent in post-holiday trade on Wednesday to catch up with Brent's gains earlier in the week. The market has been expecting interest rates in the U.S. and Europe to rise further to tame stubborn inflation. Fears of a global recession mounted after recent surveys showing slower factory and services activity in China and Europe. Minutes released on Wednesday showed that a united U.S. central bank agreed to hold rates steady at its June meeting to buy time and assess the need for further hikes, though most attendees expected they would eventually need to tighten further. U.S. interest rate futures on Thursday increased the probability of another U.S. rate rise after news private payrolls surged last month. "We know the Federal Reserve wants to see the labor market cool off," . "The market is concerned that the Fed has to take the punch bowl away." Supporting prices were data from the Energy Information Administration that showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell by more than expected last week. Crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels in the last week to 452.2 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1 million-barrel drop. U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories also dropped. "While the inventories are supportive for oil prices today, the oil market is being dominated by fears of further rate increases," "This is coming at a time when OPEC+, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, are reiterating their commitment to rein in production and exports, respectively." Top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced a fresh round of output cuts for August. The total cuts now stand at more than five million barrels per day (bpd), equating to 5 per cent of global oil output. The cuts, along with a bigger than expected drop in U.S. crude stocks, provided some support for prices. OPEC is likely to maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year when it publishes its first outlook for 2024 this month, predicting a slowdown from this year but still an above-average increase, sources close to OPEC told Reuters. OPEC ministers and executives from oil companies told a two-day conference in Vienna that governments needed to turn their attention from supply to demand. Rather than pressuring oil producers to curb supply, which heads of global energy companies say serves only to increase prices, governments should shift the focus to limiting oil demand to reduce emissions, they said.
Oil Futures Hit 5-Week High as US Dollar Sinks on Softer Employment Data - -- Erasing midmorning losses, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Friday's session sharply higher, lifting front-month West Texas Intermediate above $73 per barrel (bbl) after a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report triggered a selloff in the U.S. dollar. Investors in financial markets upped their bets that the Federal Reserve would not have to raise the federal funds rate much higher from the current 5% to 5.25% target range following June's employment report showing the slowest pace in job growth since late 2020. The headline employment number for June was 209,000, slightly below expectations for 213,000 new jobs. However, most of the job gains were concentrated in government, social assistance, and health care categories. The categories associated with post-pandemic jobs creations, including leisure and hospitality along with professional services, showed little change from the prior month. What's more, employment for both May and April were revised lower, with average job growth over the period now 110,000 lower than previously reported. June's employment report was underwhelming in light of the strong ADP payroll report and jobless data that revealed the labor market continues to generate solid job growth. Payroll provider ADP showed private payrolls spiked 497,000 in June -- more than double expectations for 235,000, with the leisure and hospitality sector up 232,000 and education and health services up 74,000, which aligns with the post-pandemic recovery. The new data set paints an uncertain outlook for domestic fuel consumption, with the strong U.S. labor market historically supporting demand for gasoline and distillate fuels. Should the labor market decelerate more quickly over the coming months, this could lead to much weaker fuel demand in the second half of the year. Weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed total demand for oil products spiked 929,000 barrel per day (bpd) or 4.6% to a better-than-six-month high 21.235 million bpd in closing out the first half of 2023. Domestic gasoline demand surged 293,000 bpd to 9.599 million bpd for the final week of June -- the highest weekly consumption rate since October 2021, while the fifth greatest weekly demand rate since the end of pandemic lockdowns. Demand for distillate fuel during the week ended June 30 also recovered, climbing 497,000 bpd from a 2023 low to 3.811 million bpd. Total crude oil and petroleum products inventory was drawn down for a third consecutive week to 1.261 billion bbl, EIA data shows, with stocks 21.5 million bbl or 1.7% below the five-year average. At settlement, U.S. dollar declined 0.89% against a basket of foreign currencies to 101.950 and NYMEX August West Texas Intermediate futures advanced to $73.86, up $2.06 per bbl. ICE September Brent crude gained $1.95 to $78.47 per bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures added $0.0455 to $2.5893 per gallon, and August ULSD futures rallied $0.0797 to $2.5591 per gallon.
Oil prices up three per cent to nine-week high on supply concerns - Oil prices climbed about three per cent to a nine-week high on Friday as supply concerns and technical buying outweighed fears that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil. Brent futures rose $1.95, or 2.6 per cent, to settle at $78.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose $2.06, or 2.9 per cent, to settle at $73.86. After two months of price consolidation between roughly $73-77, Brent moved into technically overbought territory for the first time since mid April. “The rally over the last week or so … has been quite strong and backed by momentum – as well as fresh cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia,” Top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced fresh output cuts this week bringing total reductions by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to around 5m barrels per day (bpd), or about five per cent of global oil demand. “OPEC+ production cuts are expected to tighten the market, driving supply deficits in the second half of 2023, supporting higher oil prices,” analysts at U.S. financial services company Morningstar said in a note. OPEC will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year, sources close to OPEC said. Russia’s latest pledge to reduce oil exports will not require a similar cut in production, a government source told Reuters. Oil analytics firm Vortexa said there are currently 10.5m barrels of Saudi crude in floating storage off the Egyptian Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna, down by almost half from mid-June. Also supporting crude prices, the U.S. dollar fell to a two-week low after data showed U.S. job growth was lower than expected but still strong enough to likely lead the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume raising interest rates later this month as it has signaled. A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies, which could boost oil demand. According to the CME Group Inc’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 25-26 meeting is now around 95 per cent, up from 92 per cent just prior to the data coming out. Higher borrowing costs could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. In Europe, decades-high inflation and the impact of war in Ukraine has forced companies to impose hiring freezes and lay-offs. In Germany, a swift economic recovery appeared less likely as data showed a surprise fall in industrial production.
Iran attempted to seize 2 oil tankers, US Navy says - Iranian naval forces attempted to capture two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday and fired on one merchant vessel before they were turned back by an American battleship, according to the U.S. Navy, which posted a video of the alleged encounter.Around 1 a.m. local time Wednesday, the U.S. says, an Iranian naval vessel sailed toward a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker across international waters but was deterred by the American guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul.Roughly three hours later, Bahamian-flagged oil tanker Richmond Voyager issued a distress call while transiting international waters near Muscat, Oman, headed toward the Arabian Sea, according to the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet.An Iranian vessel had inched within 1 mile of Richmond Voyager, hailing the tanker to stop and even firing on the commercial ship.The USS McFaul arrived in time to again deter the Iranian ship. No one was injured on the Richmond Voyager, but the U.S. Navy says bullets pierced the boat’s hull near the living quarters.A video released by the U.S. Navy appears to show the Richmond Voyager attempting to get away from the Iranian vessel as it fires on the merchant tanker.There was no immediate comment from Iranian officials via state news agency IRNA.The encounter follows successful attempts from Iranian naval forces to seize oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Texas-bound ship in April and another one about a week later.
A Large Iranian Drone Plant Is Already Up & Running Inside Russia -Russia already has an Iranian drone manufacturing facility up and running on its soil, in close cooperation with Tehran, which appears consistent with the US intelligence warnings of prior months."Russia’s covert drone partnership with Iran has included close co-operation on a new factory in the Russian republic of Tatarstan, where Moscow has converted an agricultural unmanned aerial vehicle maker to supply its war effort in Ukraine," Financial Times writes in a new investigative report.The facility location is very close to Kazan, Russia's fifth largest city and among the country's high-tech manufacturing hubs. Albatross, the Russian company overseeing the facility, advertises itself as an agricultural unmanned aerial vehicle maker primarily focused on farm tech, but is believed to have recently been more deeply involved in military applications for its drones. While Iran's kamikaze 'Shahed' loitering drones have already been deployed in the hundreds on the Ukrainian battlefield and over cities, FT's reporting did not suggest Shahed's were being produced at the new Tatarstan plant. Instead, at least 50 new Albatros M5 long-range reconnaissance drones have been supplied thus far to Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine. These Russian-Iranian drone initiatives are expected to expand, given that as the report underscores there's been a noticeable recruitment effort underway for Albatros company to gain more UAV engineers, scientists, and even technicians that can speak Farsi.FT writes, in reference to the name of the specific business park where the manufacturing facility has been established:In addition, they found the business park has also posted advertisements for Farsi interpreters who will be required to travel, perform simultaneous translation and translate technical documents.In June, the White House issued satellite photographs that identified two buildings in the Alabuga zone area as a key part of Iran’s attempts to help Moscow increase its drone capacity. “We are also concerned that Russia is working with Iran to produce Iranian UAVs from inside Russia,” said John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesperson.
A year of fighting between Israel and the Palestinians just escalated. Is this an uprising? - (AP) — Airstrikes targeting Palestinian militants in a crowded residential area. Armored bulldozers plowing through narrow streets, crushing cars and piling up debris. Protesters burning tires. A mounting death toll.Israel’s large-scale military raid into the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank on Monday had undeniable similarities with the second Palestinian uprising of the early 2000s — a period that claimed thousands of lives. But the current fighting is also different from those intense years of violence. It’s more limited in scope, with Israeli military operations focused on several strongholds of Palestinian militants.The second uprising pitted Palestinian militant groups against a far more powerful Israeli military. Over 4,000 people died, including vast numbers of civilians. Roughly three times as many Palestinians as Israelis were killed.Israel struck targets in a militant stronghold in the occupied West Bank with drones and deployed hundreds of troops in the area, in an incursion that resembled the wide-scale military operations carried out during the second Palestinian uprising two decades ago. Palestinian health officials said at least eight Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded. (July 3) Israeli crackdowns upended Palestinian lives, including placing tight restrictions on movement that choked the fledgling economy. For Israelis, especially during the frequent bombings of the second intifada, stepping onto a bus or going out to a restaurant was terrifying. Those events were initially fueled by widespread participation. Many Palestinians in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem — areas captured by Israel in 1967 and claimed by the Palestinians for their state — joined in the protests. In the spring of 2022, a spate of Palestinian attacks against Israelis prompted Israel to launch near-nightly raids into Palestinian areas of the West Bank.Israel said the raids were meant to stamp out militant networks. But Palestinian attacks have continued, and the death toll on both sides has risen, making last year one of the deadliest for Palestinians in the West Bank since the second intifada.The violence has only intensified since Israel’s current far-right government, which is made up of hard-line ultranationalist settlement supporters, took power late last year.The Palestinian death toll this year in the West Bank and east Jerusalem stands at more than 135, according to a tally by The Associated Press, nearly matching the death toll for all of 2022. Hundreds of Palestinians have been arrested. Some 24 people have been killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis.The region has not seen such a sustained cycle of violence since the second uprising, which lasted about five years. More recent periods of bloodshed have not lasted this long or involved such a strong show of force by the military.The tactics seen Monday, with airstrikes, armored bulldozers and a brigade of troops, were a mainstay of the second uprising.But analysts say that’s where the similarities end.
Arab nations condemn Israeli raid in West Bank - Several Arab countries and organizations are condemning a major Israeli raid launched Monday against an alleged terrorist base in the city of Jenin after at least eight Palestinians were killed and dozens injured.Arab nations that have traditionally sided with Palestine in its long conflict with Israel spoke out forcefully just hours after the operation.Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement condemned the “innocent civilian casualties in the excessive and indiscriminate use of force” in the operation.Egyptian officials also warned of the “grave dangers” of what they said were increased attacks against the Palestinian people.Jordan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry called for international cooperation to end the “disastrous consequences of the Israeli aggression on Jenin,” joining Iran and Turkey in speaking outagainst the military raid.The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) began mass air strikes and sent in hundreds of soldiers to clear out the Jenin camp, which Israel said is a major base of operations for terrorist groups to launch attacks and manufacture and distribute weapons.The IDF operation has allegedly included bulldozers tearing up streets and buildings while rockets have reportedly struck populated refugee areas.Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, a spokesperson for the IDF, said there are sites in Jenin used by terrorists next to schools and humanitarian organizations.“We’re ready to do this as long as it takes,” he told a local outlet, adding that forces were seeking to “break the mindset of a safe haven for terrorists.” Ahmed Gheit, secretary-general of the League of Arab States, said “the bombing of cities and camps by planes, the bulldozing of houses and roads, is a collective punishment and revenge that will only lead to further detonation of the situation.” “I appeal to the advocates of peace in the world to intervene immediately to stop this ominous and criminal process,” he tweeted.Lynn Hastings, a United Nations resident and humanitarian coordinator for Palestine, said she was “alarmed” by the scale of the Israeli operation in Jenin.“Access to all injured must be ensured,” Hastings tweeted.The violence in the Israeli-occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza has increased this year, fueling concerns about another major conflict in the Middle East.The IDF has responded aggressively to Palestinian militant activity under hardline Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in operations it says are tasked with defending its people.Netanyahu has also been accused of allowing settlement expansions in Israel that are displacing the Palestinian people.U.S. officials have yet to make a statement on the Jenin raid, which comes just ahead of the Fourth of July celebrations, a traditional holiday break for Americans.Washington is a major ally of Israel but supports a two-state solution between Palestine and Israel.The Council on Islamic-American Relations, a major Muslim advocacy organization that has repeatedly spoken out against Israeli military activity, called for the U.S. to respond to Israeli military activity.“The Israeli government is completely out of control because it does not expect to face any consequences from the Biden administration,” said national executive director Nihad Awad in a statement. “This must change.”
US Backs Israel's Major Offensive in West Bank City of Jenin - The White House has expressed support for a major Israeli offensive that was launched against the occupied West Bank city of Jenin early Monday.“We support Israel’s security and right to defend its people against Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist groups,” a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said, according toAFP.Amid the ongoing raid, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu touted US support for Israel, which includes $3.8 billion in annual military aid. “America has provided Israel with moral and political backing against those who would wipe us out, the only Jewish state,” he said. “Security cooperation has never been better; intelligence sharing has never been deeper.”The Netanyahu government has significantly stepped up raids in the West Bank since taking power at the end of December. The government includes extremist settlers, and the coalition has vowed to prioritize expanding settlements in the West Bank with the ultimate goal of annexing the territory. The policies have sparked more armed Palestinian resistance.According to Al Jazeera, the attack on Jenin was launched by 1,000 Israeli troops, 150 armored vehicles, and air power. The Israeli military said Monday that it launched around 20 drone strikes across Jenin and vowed that the operation would last longer than one day.Palestinian authorities have reported at least eight Palestinians have been killed in the offensive, which has been described as the worst attack on the city since 2002. According to Defense for Children International-Palestine, two of those killed were children: Nouruddin Husam Yousef Marshoud, 15, and 17-year-old Majdi Younis Saud. The death toll is expected to rise as the city has now been under siege for 24 hours.Israel launched the offensive to root out armed resistance groups in Jenin, but the city’s mayor said civilians are also being killed. “Those being targeted now are not just the resistance fighters, but civilians are being killed and wounded as well,” Nidal Obeidi told Al Jazeera.
CENTCOM Says It Conducted 37 Operations Against ISIS in Iraq and Syria in June - US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a press release on Thursday that it was involved in 37 operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria during the month of June.The command said all of the operations were conducted with US partners, the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria, and the Baghdad-based government in Iraq. CENTCOM claimed 13 ISIS “operatives” were killed.In Iraq, CENTCOM was involved in 30 operations where 12 alleged ISIS operatives were killed. Seven operations were conducted in Syria, where one alleged ISIS operative was killed.CENTCOM did not offer an assessment of potential harm to civilians in the operations, and the Pentagon is notorious for undercounting civilian casualties. For example, CENTCOM claimed a drone strike it launched in northwest Syria on May 3 killed a “senior al-Qaeda leader.” But it soon became clear a civilian was killed in the strike, and it was revealed CENTCOM had no evidence to back up its initial claim.While the US is active in operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the terror group no longer holds any significant territory in either country. The US uses the missions against ISIS to justify its continued presence in the region, including its occupation of eastern Syria.The US occupation of Syria is part of its economic campaign against the country, which involves crippling economic sanctions that are specifically designed to prevent Syria’s reconstruction.
Ukraine warns of nuclear disaster as Russia orders staff to leave power plant – – Ukrainian officials and intelligence officers warned Russia could be preparing to blow up a nuclear power station, leading to a radioactive environmental disaster. After the Kakhovka dam destruction last month, Kyiv fears the Kremlin plans to organize an explosion at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — the largest in Europe — located in the Russian-occupied city of Enerhodar. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian workers have been told to leave the power station by July 5. "There is a serious threat. Russia is technically ready to provoke a local explosion at the plant, which could lead to the release of dangerous substances into the air,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said to Spanish journalists in Kyiv over the weekend. “We are discussing all this with our partners so that everyone understands why Russia is doing this and put pressure on the Russian Federation politically so that they don't even think about such a thing.” Last week as the State Emergency Service of Ukraine conducted radioactive safety drills in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported that a Russian military contingent, as well as Russian-backed nuclear power plant workers, were gradually leaving the plant. “Among the first to leave the station were three Rosatom employees, who managed the actions of the Russians,” Ukrainian military intelligence said in a statement. They were advised to leave by July 5. “The personnel remaining at the station were instructed to blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies." Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a statement the fact that Ukrainian officials conducted radioactive safety drills and set additional radiation measurement devices in several cities means “Kyiv is preparing a false flag” operation. However Zakharova provided no evidence for her claim. The plant is currently Russian controlled. Earlier last month Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov said Russia was ready to orchestrate a technological disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The part most likely to be blown up would be the artificial pond needed for cooling the power station, Budanov said.
Russian Nuclear Official Claims Ukraine Is Planning Imminent Attack on Nuclear Plant - An advisor to the director of Russia’s Rosenergoatom nuclear power engineering company claimed Tuesdaythat Ukraine is planning an imminent attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) while Ukraine is accusing Russian forces of plotting to blow up the facility.The ZNPP is in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast and has been controlled by Russian forces since March 2022. It has been the scene of fighting throughout the war as Ukraine launched failed attacks on the plant to recapture the facility last fall. At the time, Ukraine blamed shelling on the Russian-controlled plant on Russian forces.Rosenergoatom advisor Renat Karchaa claimed Ukraine is planning to use a dirty bomb against the ZNPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. “In the nighttime on July 5, Ukrainian troops will try to attack the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with the use of high-precision long-range weapons and kamikaze drone,” he said, according to the Russian news agency TASS.“They plan to airdrop bombs stuffed with radioactive waste that were removed from the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant to a military airfield in Ukraine. The standby bombing plan provides for the use of a Tochka-U high-precision rocket with a warhead stuffed with radioactive waste,” Karchaa added.Also on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed Russian forces planted explosives at the ZNPP. “Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian troops have placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,” he said.The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement on Facebook that an attack could happen in the “near future” and claimed Russia would make it look like Ukrainian shelling. Ukrainian officials made similar claims about explosives being planted at the ZNPP in recent weeks, but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said its experts found no such devices.As Ukraine was accusing Russia of plotting to blow up the ZNPP, US Senators Lindsey Grahan (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) introduced legislation on June 22 that would declare Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which outlines mutual defense, would be triggered if Russia destroyed a nuclear facility and radioactive contaminates dispersed into NATO territory.
IAEA Says No Sign of Explosives at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday that its inspectors have seen no sign of explosives at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine despite claims from Kyiv that Russia had planted bombs.According to an IAEA press release, Director-General Rafael Grossi said the agency’s experts “have in recent days and weeks inspected parts of the facility — including some sections of the perimeter of the large cooling pond — and have also conducted regular walk-downs across the site, so far without observing any visible indications of mines or explosives.”The press release said Grossi has requested more access to the ZNPP, specifically the “rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 is essential, as well as access to parts of the turbine halls and some parts of the cooling system at the plant.”Grossi said with “military tension and activities increasing in the region where this major nuclear power plant is located, our experts must be able to verify the facts on the ground. Their independent and objective reporting would help clarify the current situation at the site, which is crucial at a time like this with unconfirmed allegations and counter allegations.”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on Tuesday that Russia planted explosives at the ZNPP. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said an attack could happen in the “near future” and claimed Russia would try to make it look like the damage to the plant was caused by Ukrainian shelling.Russian officials are now accusing Ukraine of plotting to blow up the facility using a dirty bomb. The Kremlinsaid Wednesday that the risk of Ukraine carrying out a sabotage attack at the ZNPP was “really high.”
China imposes export controls on rare minerals used to make semiconductor chips -The Chinese government on Monday announced new limits on the exportation of two rare metals necessary for the production of semiconductors and electric vehicles.Beginning Aug. 1., the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said exports of the metals germanium and gallium will be allowed only if exporters secure licenses from the ministry, a move it called essential to “protect national security and interests.”Although the ministry did not go into detail about the reasons for the new restrictions, an editorial in the state-owned China Daily following the announcement blasted the Netherlands for its export controls on semiconductor components.The editorial also noted that the U.S. is home to the largest germanium mines in the world but “seldom exploits them.” Russia, Belgium and Canada also produce germanium, while Russia, Ukraine, Japan and South Korea also produce gallium.China leads the world in total production of both metals. The country produces about 650,000 kilograms of gallium per year, about 94 percent of global production. The nation has been dramatically increasing production since 2019, when environmental measures curtailed the use of similar metals.The U.S., by contrast, has no current domestic source of the metal, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. China was also the largest germanium producer as of 2021, producing about 95 metric tons.
China ends probe of Ma-backed Ant with $984 million fine -Chinese regulators imposed a 7.12 billion yuan ($984 million) fine on Ant Group, according to a statement from the central bank, wrapping more than two years of probes into the finance technology giant founded by billionaire Jack Ma. The People's Bank of China said it imposed fines on Ant Group and its subsidiaries, including confiscation of illegal income, according to a statement on Friday. The sanctions were in response to violations of laws and regulations in areas including financial consumer protection, payment and settlement business and anti-money laundering obligation in the past years, the statement showed. The move draws a line under the multi-year crackdown that torpedoed Ant's record initial public offering in 2020 and ensnared some of the nation's most powerful private firms in sectors from online education to gaming. It paves the way for Ant to revive growth and even eventually resurrect plans for an IPO. Ant Group said it has completed rectification required by China's financial regulators, according to a company statement. Fines were also issued to a payment platform of Alibaba rival Tencent Holdings, as well as PICC Property & Casualty , Postal Savings Bank of China and Ping An Bank, given the problems found in previous law enforcement inspections, according to the statement. Most of the key problems in financial platform enterprises such as Ant Group and Tencent have been rectified, the statement said. It's unclear why Tencent also received a fine. The WeChat operator's executives have stressed repeatedly since 2022 that their financial businesses are in full compliance with the law, and that they're in constant dialogue with Beijing. A meaningful relaxation of curbs on Ant — one of the most high-profile casualties of President Xi Jinping's sweeping clampdown on the country's tech giants — would send a strong signal that policymakers are following through on recent pledges to support the industry. The Communist Party's evolving stance toward the private sector has become one of the most closely watched developments in global markets in recent years, with some observers even calling China's sprawling internet sector uninvestable.
7,400 Canadian west coast dock workers launch strike -Some 7,400 dock workers at over 30 ports in British Columbia, including the Port of Vancouver, Canada’s largest, launched a strike Saturday morning to fight for wage increases that keep pace with inflation, an end to contracting out, and job protection against the effects of automation. The strikers are in a powerful position to win their demands, since they play a critical role in the North American economy, helping move an estimated $800 million in trade per day. The striking longshore workers are taking a courageous stand. And not just against the shipping companies, who extract bumper profits from their ruthless exploitation in moving the billions of dollars in goods that pass through the ports each year—including all through the COVID-19 pandemic. The BC dock workers are also challenging the entire Canadian ruling establishment, including the trade union-backed Liberal government, which is under pressure from corporate Canada and the business press to criminalize the strike as soon as possible and impose a concessionary contract that ensures that BC’s ports are “globally competitive.” Strikers must respond to these threats by broadening their struggle. First and foremost, they should make an urgent appeal to their American colleagues, who have been forced to labour without a contract for a year by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), to join them in a common struggle. Dock workers on both sides of the border are members of the same union and are facing the same attacks and threats of strikebreaking legislation. Yet the union the bureaucracy has kept workers divided, seeking to isolate their contract struggles along national lines. Immediately after the ILWU issued the requisite 72-hour strike notice Wednesday, federal and provincial government ministers made scarcely veiled threats of back-to-work legislation. Federal Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan and Transport Minister Omar Alghabra called on workers to recognize the threat that a strike would represent to the “economy”—i.e., to business profits. On Friday, O’Regan personally intervened in the talks between the ILWU and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (MEA) in Vancouver. He has since vowed not to leave the city until a tentative deal is announced. Undoubtedly, O’Regan, acting on behalf of the Trudeau government, has told the ILWU bureaucrats that if they don’t soon come to terms with the MEA, a back-to-work law will be introduced in parliament. With the Chamber of Commerce, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, the Canadian Manufacturers Association and numerous other big business groups clamouring for government action, the MEA is, for its part, banking on the government’s support. The ILWU, however, is doing nothing to expose this anti-worker conspiracy. In its statement issued as the strike began, the ILWU declared that it was “hopeful” that a settlement could be reached through “free collective bargaining” and affirmed it remains at the bargaining table. In other words, the union knows full well that workers are on a collision course with the federal government, and that the announcement of parliament’s recall to illegalize the strike and impose a rigged, pro-employer arbitration process is at the very most only a few days away.
Body parts strewn around state capital outside Mexico City, apparently left by violent cartel (AP) — A violent drug cartel is suspected of leaving a severed human leg found hanging from a pedestrian bridge Wednesday in Toluca, just west of Mexico City. Before the day was out, parts of at least two bodies had turned up around the city. At the bridge, the trunk of the body was left on the street below, near the city’s center, along with handwritten signs signed by the Familia Michoacana cartel. Other parts of the body were found later in another neighborhood, also with handwritten drug cartels signs nearby. The victim was apparently a man aged between 35 and 40. Then parts of at least one other body were found elsewhere in the city. Police discovered a dismembered body in a neighborhood on the city’s east side, along with a sign similar to those in the first case. Later, in an industrial neighborhood on the north side, parts of a body were found in a burning car. Authorities were investigating whether they were parts of the second dismembered body. The mayor of Toluca, which is the capital of the State of Mexico, appealed for calm. The Familia Michoacana has dominated rural areas in the state for years, but may now be trying to take over the state capital. “The issue of crime brings us all together, and we all have to fight it,” said Mayor Raymundo Martínez Carbajal. Last week, threatening banners were left in another suburb of Toluca, and they were also signed by the Familia Michoacana.
Report declares many school buildings in England structurally unsafe -- A damning report released by the National Audit Office (NAO) reveals that 700,000 children attend schools in England which need major rebuilding or renovation. Around 38 percent of schools are housed in buildings which have passed their projected design life. Some schools, built on the cheap over a 30-year period from the 1950s using Reinforced Autoclaved Aerated Concrete (RAAC), could collapse at any time. Of these, nearly 600 are undergoing urgent structural investigation. The Conservative government, opposition Labour Party and education unions have been aware for years of the imminent risk of injury or death to pupils and staff caused by dilapidated buildings. Partial roof collapses have already occurred, but remedial work proceeds at a snail’s pace. In its annual report last year, the Department for Education raised the risk of building collapse from “critical-likely” as of April 2021 to “critical-very likely” in March 2022, after “serious structural issues” were found in five schools in the year to October 2021. The schools closed for a long-term rebuild, including St Anne’s in Liverpool; Fearnville Primary in Bradford, where a teacher was hospitalised after being hit by a falling ceiling tile; and Fortis Academy in Birmingham after a concrete ceiling panel hit a desk. In January, cladding fell off the roof of Dore Primary School in Sheffield injuring a parent. A 12-15-foot-long fascia board with 4-inch nails fell from the roof hitting the parent on the head. She suffered a black eye, underwent an MRI scan, and had to take three weeks off work. On June 16, four schools in Kent closed after the Institute of Structural Engineers warned about concrete used in each school’s roof. Also in June, Mistley Norman Church of England and Hockley primary schools in Essex and two schools run by the Bishop Bewick Catholic education trust in the north-east, closed after RAAC was found in their ceilings. The first major crisis occurred as far back as 2018 when the roof of Singlewell Primary school in Gravesend partially collapsed—luckily at the weekend with no casualties. Most concerning, the roof only showed signs of stress 24 hours before the incident. The Standing Committee on Structural Safety responded to this potential tragedy with a safety alert on the “failure of RAAC planks,” recommending that those installed before 1980 should be replaced.
Teachers begin two-day national strike in England: “This infatuation with money is devastating for kids and teachers alike” - Teachers in the National Education Union (NEU) held their sixth day of national strike action in England on Wednesday, opposing the Conservative government’s derisory pay offer of just 5 percent for 2022-23 and 3.5 percent for 2023-24. Thousands of teachers attended pickets, rallies and marches. Several thousand teachers marched in London to Parliament Square where a rally was addressed by NEU leaders. Since the education strikes began last year, part of a strike wave embracing workers in the NHS, railways, post and other key sectors, teachers have put up a determined fight. Their strikes are set to escalate, with the first ever joint action by members of the four main education unions due from October. But the NEU leadership, in line with the response of the trade union bureaucracy across every other sector, is doubling down on its pleas to the government to enter talks and end the dispute based on a substandard pay deal and further erosion of conditions. Despite a large mandate for action, the NEU has organised virtually nothing since February, with just three regional strikes held. In the lead up to Wednesday’s strike, the NEU announced they would be called off if Education Secretary Gillian Keegan would agree to enter talks and publish the School Teachers Review Body’s (STRB) pay recommendation of 6.5 percent for next school year. This is the same body that recommended a 5 percent pay offer for 2022-23. The STRB recommendation is well below current RPI inflation of 11.3 percent and even the government’s favoured inflation measure, CPI, currently at 8.7 percent. Joint Secretary of the NEU Kevin Courtney spoke at the rally in Sheffield, stating that 44,000 teachers (9 percent of all teachers) have resigned this year before their retirement age, the highest on record. He called on teachers to “keep up the pressure and force Keegan to listen”. Daniel Kebede, NEU general secretary-elect, spoke at the London rally, reiterating the key demand of the unions as the basis for ending action, “[Prime Minister Rishi] Sunak and the education secretary Gillian Keegan could have averted further strike action by publishing the report of the School Teachers’ Review Body, which is said to recommend a 6.5 percent pay increase for teachers.” Laying on the insincere demagogy, Kebede declared, “If this Government doesn’t deliver there will be a general strike in education. Get ready now.” The results of industrial action ballots of the four main education unions will be published within the next three weeks, with talk of a coordinated strike planned for October 2, coinciding with the Tory Party conference. But teachers should draw awarning from the role of the health unions in ending strikes based on recommending below inflation pay deals reached in closed door talks.Left in the hands of the NEU the education strikes are threatened with a similar sell-out based on acceptance of the STRB recommendation that leaves teachers’ demands over education funding, impossible workloads, class sizes and other issues unaddressed. Educators who want to mobilise a genuine fightback, in opposition to the teacher union bureaucracies, should contact the Educators Rank and File Committee.
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