week ending Dec 30

Soft Landing -- by Robert Waldmann - Brad DeLong asked me if I had an explanation of how the US economy managed to land softly. He is confident that it is softly landing. This encourages me to actually try to do my job for once and act as a macroeconomist, and also to return to blogging here some. In the spirit of challenging reopening, I will indulge myself by skimping on links, simply asserting things which I could and should back up with a bit of Google.The basic story is that CPI inflation has declined from around 6% to around 3% during a period with unemployment below 4%. This surprised a lot of people who had predicted that inflation fighting would require (or at least cause) a recession. There are two questions. FIrst how did inflation decline without high (or even normal) unemployment ? Second how did the FED’s inflation fighting fail to cause a recession as it had 8 times from 1948 through 1981 ?Here I graph inflation my way with annualized (OK multiplied by 4) percent change in the CPI from one quarter to the next — this gives a graph which is neither all noise nor all moving averaging. I had meant to look at the more recent past, but then got distracted. In the graph we see a number of things. FIrst ,as noted by everyone, inflation was low from 1983 on. The blip of high inflation in 2021 and 2022 was a huge and unwelcome surprise to kids these days who don’t remember the 70s. Second, as noted by a few (sorry no link I admitted I was going to be lazy) low inflation used to mean 4% or lower. The ultra hawk Volcker’s target was 2% to 4% which meant 4%. Inflation was considered to have been defeated when it was higher than the current level. No one argued that there would be a signficant benefit to inflation below 4%. I don’t think that anyone has ever made that argument (at least I haven’t read it). Yet the current debate is about whether we will really have a soft landing, defined as 2% inflation without a recession, or not. The possibility that the target should be 4% or 3% has been banished from the discussion. This is a very new development. Back when we were in the liquidity trap, mainstream Keynesians including Olivier Blanchard and Paul Krugman argued for a 4% target. Later then went soft (dry — some meaningless metaphor anyway) and advocated a 3% target. Now they just accept that the target is 2%. They were not always diplomatic (OK Blanchard is always diplomatic and Krugman is never diplomatic). Krugman compared the rigid irrational devotion to the 2% target to the rigid irrational devotion to the gold standard which caused among other things [Monetary Godwin’s law redaction]. Other Keynesian economists Larry Summers and (see above) Brad DeLong argued against the 2% target when it was introduced, predicting that it would prevent the sort of cuts to real interest rates required to fight recessions (that is predicting that the US would hit the zero lower bound long before it did). here you see a dramatic decline in inflation with no recession. How could that happen ? The obvious explanation (too many links even if I weren’t so lazy) is that medium term expected inflation stayed lit ow, that is, inflation expectations did not de-anchor. The lesson from the 1970s and the 2020s is that it takes a lot of time and effort to weigh the inflation expectations anchor. Not unusually, Paul Krugman predicted this . The story is (and has been for decades, really for my entire life) that high unemployment occurs when inflation is lower than expected inflation (the story has not included speculation about the direction of causation for my entire life). So inflation now is close to expected medium term inflation and, so there is no reason to guess that unemployment must be high. I’m afraid that’s basically it (so this longgggg post is also pointless). I do want to add two thoughts. - Petroleum prices. The Putin invades Ukraine oil shock was small compared to the OPEC discovers its power during the Arab Oil Boycott shock and compared to the Saddam Hussein invades Iran shock. I think part of the reason is that long term expectations are very very different. Back then, it was assumed that we would run out of petroleum eventually and the price would rise (peak oil meant peak production not peak demand). Now, the guess is that petroleum will be semi-obsolete fairly soon. Another issue is people working from home,. I think this causes increased labor market frictions which can explain how the unprecedented huge number of vacant jobs did not cause a very large increase in wages. Work from home is an informal arrangement (people don’t have contracts which give them the right to work from home). Informal arrangements tie people together. Roughly, someone who works at home and sees an advertisement for a job like her current job at a higher wage has to wonder about a possible job interview. If one asks to make sure one will be allowed to work from home, one is not likely to get the job (it is a very bad signal). If one doesn’t, one will have to go to some office.

Robert Shiller Warns Of 'Cataclysm' For US Dollar Reserve Status If Confiscated Russian Assets Given To Ukraine If the United States shifts frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, it would be cataclysmic for the US Dollar's status as the global reserve currency, says Nobel Prize winning Yale professor, Robert Shiller. “If America does this to Russia today… then tomorrow it can do this to anyone," he told Italian news outlet La Repubblica in an interview published Sunday."This will destroy the halo of security that surrounds the dollar and will be the first step towards de-dollarization, which many are increasingly confidently leaning toward, from China to developing countries, not to mention Russia itself," Schiller continued.The US, EU, and allies have frozen some $300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserve assets since last year after slapping the Kremlin with sanctions over the Ukraine war. Over the past year, various ideas have been tossed around regarding using the funds to aid Ukraine.Earlier this month, the Financial Times described doing so as "a radical step that would open a new chapter in the west’s financial warfare against Moscow.""I can’t convince myself that this [confiscation of Russian assets] is the right way," said Schiller, who received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013, and is known for his expertise in behavioral economics and macroeconomics. He was named one of Bloomberg's '50 most influential people' in global finance."In addition to the fact that this will be confirmation for the Russian leader that what is happening in Ukraine is a proxy war, it could paradoxically turn against America and the entire West," he continued, adding that giving confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine would become "a cataclysm for the current dollar-dominated economic system."Russia has called the confiscation unlawful, and warned that any country considering participating in sanctions should expect a mirror response from Moscow.

The Neocon Rot in the GOP Empowered the Warfare State - by David Stockman -- The graph below embodies a shit-ton of modern political, policy and financial history, even if on the surface its seems prosaic enough. Literally, it tracks in 2023 dollars of purchasing power the rise of the public debt since 1966. To be sure, 1966 did have some claim to being an inflection point in modern fiscal history. That was the year in which LBJ’s “guns and butter” policies went into high gear, fueled by a spending surge for both the Great Society and the dramatic escalation of Johnson’s genocidal war on the peasants of Vietnam. But an inspection of the graph makes clear that the actual inflection point in terms of the explosion of the nation’s public debt incepted 15 years later after 1980. Thus, in 2023 dollars of purchasing power the public debt went from $2.36 trillion in 1966 to $2.76 trillion in 1980, representing a pretty modest 1.4% annual growth in real terms. So even with a moderately more accommodative Fed after William McChesney Martin got the LBJ “treatment” and surging bills for the domestic Welfare State that Nixon and Ford did little to reverse, there was simply no sign circa 1980 that America’s politicians were about to uncork a runaway public debt. Alas, the next 43-years proved otherwise, as what had been the flat part of the chart below virtually went vertical. Again, in today’s dollars of purchasing power the theretofore contained public debt rose 14-fold, from $2.7 trillion in 1980 to nearly $33 trillion today. That surge embodied a dramatically higher 6.0% per annum rate of growth. Needless to say, over any considerable period of time, the law of compound arithmetic is a monster. Had the public debt stayed on the 1966 to 1980 path of 1.4% growth, instead, the public debt today would be $5.0 trillion, not $33 trillion, And annual interest expense on the Federal debt at a standardized 4% rate would be $200 billion, not $1.3 trillion. Something epochal happened to cause an extra $28 trillion of debt to be loaded upon the main street economy and to squeeze the daylights out of a federal budget that a decade or two down the road will be groaning under the entitlement costs owed to 100 million retired Americans. So let us cut to the chase. The epochal turn of events we are referencing involves the defenestration of the old-time GOP and the consequent nullification of its dedication to the verities of fiscal rectitude, sound money, free market liberty and prosperity at home and peaceful commerce abroad. In their stead came first and foremost the neocon enterprise of global empire and Washington hegemony – supplemented by the anti-abortion culture warriors, free-lunch tax-cutters, anti-immigrant border warriors and Greenspanian easy money brigade. Together, all of these digressions left the GOP compromised, distracted and ultimately impotent when it came to its essential mission in the struggle of American politics. That is, to function as the watchdog of the Treasury and the sturdy guardian of the nation’s taxpayers and producers. It started when a cadre of neocon fanatics took over Ronald Reagan’s transition team and committed him needlessly to 7% real growth of the defense budget and it has now reached its apogee as the GOP desperately turns to Nikki Haley as it’s 11th hour alternative to the return of Donald Trump to the top of the ticket. Quite simply, with the possible exception of the demented and bloody-thirsty Lindsay Graham, Nikki Haley is the most interventionist, pro-war Republican on today’s political scene. Yet a GOP that would even consider Haley as its presidential candidate under current circumstances has surely passed its “sell by” date when it comes to claiming the mantle of the conservative party in the two-party tango of democratic governance in America. The Reagan Administration inherited a $400 billion national defense budget from Jimmy Carter, when measured in current (2023) dollars of purchasing power. But owing to the capture of policy in the Reagan Administration by neocon hawks peddling the false claim that the Soviet Union was on the verge of a nuclear first strike capability, the mantra of “7% real growth” for the defense topline became the dominating force driving fiscal policy inside the GOP on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. In Part 2 we will amplify the spillover effect of this defense spending obsession on efforts to shrink the Welfare State but suffice it here to note that by the time the Gipper left office, the Warfare State had taken on massive new girth. By 1988, the national security budget in 2023 dollars had reached $650 billion, representing a utterly needless 65% expansion of an already bloated defense establishment.

Increasing Deficit Can Be Traced to GOP Tax Cuts, Americans For Tax Fairness, Press Release. Today’s monthly budget report again demonstrates that the federal deficit has been largely driven by tax cuts for the rich and corporations enacted by Republican politicians over the past 22 years. The clear answer to rising debt is reversing those tax cuts, not cutting public investments that benefit working families. That’s the public call today from Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF), based on a study published last spring by the Center on American Progress (CAP). The Congressional Budget Office today reported that the federal deficit for the fiscal year ended last month was $1.7 trillion: that’s $314 billion higher than the previous year. The CBO also reported that revenues fell by an estimated $455 billion (or 9 percent) and were smaller than in fiscal year 2022. The CAP study found that over half (57%) of the growth in the federal deficits during the 21st century can be blamed on tax cuts mostly benefiting the wealthy and corporations passed by Republican Congresses and signed into law by Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Excluding spending in response to national emergencies like the Great Recession and Covid, tax cuts are responsible for 90% of the increase in deficits since. Yet Republicans in Congress want to permanently extend parts of the 2017 Trump tax law scheduled to expire in 2026, expanding the deficit by another $3.85 trillion. “As reliable as falling leaves in October, any discussion of deficits prompts Republican calls for cuts to services supporting kids, the elderly, working families and struggling communities. But the real answer is fairer taxes on the rich and corporations,” said David Kass, ATF’s executive director. “Let’s finally start addressing the deficit issue from the right direction: it’s a revenue problem. We’ll get our fiscal house in order when the wealthiest households and most profitable corporations start paying their fair share of taxes.”

Speaker Johnson enters 2024 with warring GOP factions -Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) heads into the New Year facing a daunting legislative to-do list, a tiny window to get it passed and a warring GOP conference that will complicate his strategy at every turn. As the new Speaker approaches a pair of urgent deadlines to fund the government through the remainder of the fiscal year, he’s being squeezed between competing GOP interests and confronting the same predicaments that felled his predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Some of the restive conservatives who toppled McCarthy have given Johnson some early space on sticky issues, particularly on passing a “clean” funding stopgap. But they are getting more restless and openly frustrated with some of his tactics — a sign of potential trouble when Congress returns to address divisive issues like government spending and aid for Ukraine. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy, signaled that patience with Johnson is running short even as he views him more favorably than McCarthy. “I realize it’s a game of numbers. But I’m ready to start taking some stands,” Burchett said. How Johnson handles the competing internal pressures will set the tone for 2024, determine if government operations cease or persist, and could impact not only the outcome of the elections but also whether Johnson will still have the gavel when November arrives. He is feeling the heat from across the party on several major issues. Some Republicans have criticized Johnson’s moves that please conservative agitators but have no shot at becoming law in a divided government with a razor-thin House GOP majority. Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), one of two Jewish Republicans in the House, openly criticized Johnson’s move of tying aid to Israel aid to IRS funding cuts as “disgusting” and a “gimmick,” Jewish Insider reported at the time, given it would be dead on arrival in the Senate — though Miller did vote for the legislation. More moderate Republicans express frustration at the right flank’s pushes for socially conservative policies, particularly relating to abortion. “When they try to put abortion riders in financial service [spending] bills, you’re not going to get a whole lot of support for that,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said. Those members are eager to avoid internal squabbles, hoping instead to focus their election-year energy on those issues where Democrats are most vulnerable, like inflation and border security. “Most of the people who are complaining about what we did or did not do [on spending bills] aren’t going to be part of that anyway, they’re not going to be voting for the bill,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a senior appropriator, leadership ally and chair of the powerful Rules Committee. “There’s no way we can go to where they want to go and be able to attract the Democratic support that you need. … We’ve got to find a way to piece together enough Democrats and Republicans to actually move stuff.”

Why McConnell warned Biden on border-Ukraine talks - Two weeks ago, Mitch McConnell delivered a private warning to the White House. Speaking first with chief of staff Jeff Zients and then with President Joe Biden on Dec. 7, the Senate minority leader said there were just five days to cut a deal linking border security with billions for Ukraine. Otherwise, he warned it would have to wait until next year, according to a person familiar with the conversations. He took that dose of reality public on Dec. 12, declaring at a press conference that time was up. Those comments reverberated through not just the U.S. Capitol, but also across Europe. It would be “practically impossible” to close a deal this month, he said of funding that he is personally desperate to pass. And a further delay would only inject more uncertainty into the fraught negotiations to assist Ukraine’s war effort. McConnell’s comment might have seemed like a huge blow for Ukraine aid. But barely an hour later, White House officials arrived on Capitol Hill for their first in-person conversation with Senate negotiators, a meeting planned before McConnell went to the microphones. The stern message from McConnell summed up the tensions between Washington’s leaders as they labor to send one last tranche of aid to Ukraine before the election. While both sides are determined to get to a deal, a lack of trust on one of the thorniest issues in domestic politics has bedeviled the negotiations and prevented any sort of tangible agreement. Now, while Senate negotiators vow to keep working into January, the reality is that future aid for Ukraine — a shared priority for the White House and McConnell — is more in doubt than ever. Democrats were immediately skeptical of the GOP demand to tie Ukraine and border policy together, even as Biden himself requested more border funding. Republicans were equally leery that the White House would ever come their way. And everything slowed down as a result. “Biden thought the Republicans weren’t doing enough. The Republicans thought Biden wasn’t doing enough,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recalled in an interview. That changed in the Dec. 12 meeting, when Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and senior White House officials, as well senior McConnell aides, joined the negotiations. It was the first of a series of breakneck meetings when negotiations got far more serious. “They each put significant people at the table. And not just at the table for show; sitting there day in and day out,” Schumer said. Congress has now finished its business for the year, though chief negotiators Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) are continuing their urgent talks. McConnell and Schumer believe the Senate can take up an agreement in January, and the two leaders met one last time on Wednesday about the matter before breaking for the month.

Why DHS secretary Mayorkas is making a border-Ukraine deal harder - Senate Republicans are working closely with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as they try to craft a bipartisan border security deal. Which creates a new problem for the GOP negotiators: If they succeed, they’ll need to sell that deal to colleagues who loathe Mayorkas and, later, House Republicans who are trying to impeach him. Mayorkas’ role in the high-stakes border talks is confined to policy proposals, not politics. He’s participating to assess border changes without deciding what the White House might ultimately back, according to a person familiar with the talks who was granted anonymity to address them. His presence is nonetheless a conundrum for Republicans — many of whom will get asked to vote for legislation that bears the mark of a Biden official they have fought for literally a decade. “I’m skeptical” of the DHS secretary, said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who has clashed with Mayorkas since the Obama administration. “Hearing for three years that the border’s secure when every day, you can see it’s not secure? He’s living in dreamland.” At the moment, Mayorkas’ talks with Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) are advancing despite facing huge hurdles. They’ve made progress on changes to asylum standards but remain at odds over dialing back the president’s parole authority and new expulsion authority, according to a second person briefed on the talks. After the Senate left for the year on Wednesday, discussions are set to continue throughout the holiday season. Mayorkas’ involvement may not squash GOP support for any deal to pair new migration limits with Ukraine aid. But it undoubtedly complicates the already delicate task of selling that agreement to Republicans who are loath to compromise. “I don’t think Mayorkas gets it done. I mean, you’ve seen his performance on the border, it’s worse than abysmal,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said. “We have him up for hearings. And he sits there and says the border’s secure. He’s not even dealing with reality.”

Chinese Military Says Pentagon Spending Bill Exaggerates China Threat - China’s Defense Ministry said Thursday that provisions included in the Pentagon’s annual military spending bill that President Biden recently signed into law “unreasonably exaggerates” the “so-called China threat.”The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes amendments to expand the US military presence in the Asia Pacific and provide more military support to Taiwan.Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian told reporters that the NDAA“grossly interferes in China’s internal affairs, and seriously damages China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests. The Chinese military is strongly dissatisfied with and firmly opposed to this.”Wu criticized the US alliance building in the Asia Pacific that’s being done explicitly to prepare for a future war with China in the region. The NDAA includes an amendment to sell nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, which is part of the AUKUS military pact that the US, Australia, and Britain formed in 2021.Wu had strong words for the US assistance to Taiwan, as it’s the most sensitive issue between the US and China. “The Taiwan issue is purely China’s internal affair and does not tolerate any external interference,” he said, adding that the US must stop its “provocative behavior of ‘using Taiwan to contain China.'”The US severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 as part of its normalization deal with China but has continued to sell weapons to the island. In 2023, the US began financing military aid to Taiwan for the first time, a step that enraged Beijing. The 2024 NDAA continues military aid for Taiwan and contains other forms of assistance, including a requirement for the secretary of defense to create a comprehensive training program for the Taiwanese military.

US Has Delivered Over 10,000 Tons of Weapons to Israel Since October 7 - Two hundred and forty-four American cargo planes and 20 ships have delivered over 10,000 tons of military equipment to Israel since October 7 to support the massacre in Gaza, Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Monday.The US support has been crucial in Israel’s ability to keep up its relentless bombardment of Gaza. The Washington Post reported on December 9 that, up to that date, Israel dropped over 22,000 US-provided bombs on the Gaza Strip. The Pentagon has refused to disclose what types of weapons it’s been sending to Israel, but media reports have revealed some details. The Wall Street Journal reported on December 1 that the US had shipped 15,000 bombs and 57,000 155mm artillery shells to Israel since October 7. The bomb shipments have included over 5,000 Mk84 2,000-pound warhead bombs, which Israel has been dropping on densely populated areas of Gaza. According to an analysis from The New York Times, during the first six weeks of the war, Israel routinely dropped 2,000-pound bombs on areas in south Gaza designated safe for civilians.The Israeli Defense Ministry has said the US arms deliveries have also included “armored vehicles, armaments, personal protective equipment, medical supplies, ammunition, and more.”The US-backed onslaught has killed nearly 21,000 Palestinians so far, including over 8,000 children. The number is considered a low estimate as thousands of bodies are believed to be buried deep under the rubble.

Biden greenlights Israel’s Christmas massacre in Gaza - “I had a long talk with Netanyahu today,” US President Joe Biden said on Friday as he was leaving Washington to spend the Christmas holiday at Camp David. Asked to describe the call, Biden provided only one sentence: “I did not ask for a ceasefire.” In other words, Biden gave the Israeli government his blessing to not just continue, but to intensify the genocide in Gaza over the holiday weekend. That phone call marked the prelude to a bloodbath. On Christmas Eve, Israel bombed the Maghazi camp, one of the most densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip. At least 70 people were murdered. “What is happening at the Maghazi camp is a massacre that is being committed on a crowded residential square,” said Gazan Health Ministry spokesperson Ashraf al-Qudra. The relentless bombardment continued on Christmas Day, with hundreds killed, mostly women and children. This mass murder was accompanied by open statements of genocidal intent and the deliberate circulation by the Israeli military of shocking footage of hundreds of detainees huddled naked and blindfolded. The call between the two old war criminals, Biden and Netanyahu, was not the exception, but the rule. Every major decision taken by Israel is done with the prior knowledge and full support of the United States government. Every new atrocity is preceded by a high-level meeting with Washington, either by phone or through the seemingly endless parade of US officials traveling to Tel Aviv. Israeli troops, paid with billions in US military funding, are dropping American-made bombs from American-made aircraft onto civilian targets designated by American spy planes flying over Gaza, in coordination with American officers. The Biden administration, which is working to provoke a war in the Middle East targeting Iran, has decided that the “final solution” of the Palestinian question is a vital strategic aim of US domination in the Middle East. On Monday, the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor submitted to the International Criminal Court documentary evidence of dozens of cases of mass summary executions of civilians by the Israeli army. The report referred to what is taking place as “field executions,” “physical liquidations” and “widespread killing operations.” These words recall the infamous Einsatzgruppen of the SS under Nazi Germany, responsible for the rounding up and mass extermination of Jews during the Holocaust. The Monitor estimated that 28,000 people have been killed since the start of the genocide, with 70 percent of the victims being women and children. It reported that “Palestinian deaths constitute the highest rate of civilian casualties worldwide in the 21st century.”

Netanyahu Urges Troops 'Do Not Stop' While Calling Biden's Post-Hamas Plan "A Pipe Dream" -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a Tuesday visit to troops fighting in Northern Gaza delivered a message of "do not stop" in their mission to eradicate Hamas. The past weekend was particularly bloody for the Israel Defense Forces, as at least 17 Israeli troops were killed. Some 250 Gazans have been killed in the last 24 hours, according to regional reports.Netanyahu vowed to see the operation through "to the end" - at a moment there are still some 130 Israeli and foreign hostages that remain held in the Gaza Strip. Domestic pressure and pushback against his administration has only intensified, led by kidnap victims' families, who are angry that more hasn't been done to secure their release in a possible second-round ceasefire.Egypt on Monday proposed the most comprehensive peace plan of the Gaza war yet; however, Netanyahu followed this by publishing an op-ed written in English in The Wall Street Journal wherein he rejected the prospect of achieving a permanent peace so long as Hamas remains intact.In the op-ed, he laid out his three-fold plan for pacifying Gaza and bringing permanent peace, as Israel sees it. He said that for Israel to succeed: 1) Hamas must be destroyed, 2) Gaza must be demilitarized, and 3) Gaza must be 'deradicalized' and free of hardline Islam. All of this strongly suggests that not only has Israel rejected the Egypt-proposed peace plan, but is also still resisting the Biden administration's calls to allow the Palestinian Authority (PA) to eventually govern Gaza after Hamas is defeated. The issue has remained an open point of contention, during which time Biden has issued some rare criticisms of Israel, including earlier this month highlighting the "indiscriminate" bombardment of civilian areas of Gaza. In the WSJ op-ed, the Israeli leader is emphatic that the PA under Abbas will never be able to achieve demilitarization. Netanyahu wrote: The expectation that the Palestinian Authority will demilitarize Gaza is a pipe dream. It currently funds and glorifies terrorism in Judea and Samaria and educates Palestinian children to seek the destruction of Israel. Not surprisingly it has shown neither the capability nor the will to demilitarize Gaza. It failed to do so before Hamas booted it out of the territory in 2007, and it has failed to do so in the territories under its control today. For the foreseeable future Israel will have to retain overriding security responsibility over Gaza. Elsewhere in the op-ed Netanyahu appealed to Washington security concerns by underscoring that Hamas is a "key Iranian proxy." This as Israel has just taken out an IRGC general in an airstrike on a Damascus suburb. Radhi Mousavi was reportedly assassinated in a Monday strike, and he was believed to be Iran’s top commander in Syria. The prime minister explained that if Hamas survives, this will only empower Iran further, and "more war and more bloodshed" will be guaranteed...

Biden orders strikes on Iranian group in Iraq after 3 US service members wounded - President Biden ordered strikes on three locations in Iraq after three U.S. service members were wounded, one critically, in an attack on Erbil Air Base early Christmas morning credited to a militia group backed by Iran. In a statement Monday, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said Biden directed the strikes against three facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups, which claimed credit for the initial attack against U.S. personnel. The groups, the U.S. said, are all connected to Iran. The attack was carried out by a one-way attack drone, according to the statement, which said the three locations were “focused specifically on unmanned aerial drone activities.” The statement said Biden ordered the retaliatory strikes after learning of the attack that wounded the U.S. service members. “President Biden was immediately briefed on the attack this morning, and he ordered the Department of Defense to prepare response options against those responsible. Those options were then presented to the President during a call this afternoon with Secretary of Defense Austin and members of the President’s national security team,” the statement read. “During that call, the President directed strikes against three locations utilized by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups focused specifically on unmanned aerial drone activities,” the statement continued. “The President places no higher priority than the protection of American personnel serving in harm’s way. The United States will act at a time and in a manner of our choosing should these attacks continue.”

US Launches Airstrikes Against Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, Injuring Civilians - The Pentagon said it launched airstrikes in Iraq on Monday night, targeting three facilities used by the Shia militia Kataib Hezbollah and its affiliates after a drone attack on a US base wounded three American troops, leaving one in critical condition.The Iraqi government strongly condemned the US airstrikes as “an unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty” and said one security serviceman was killed and 18 other people were injured, including civilians. Iraqi sourcestold Reuters that one Kataib Hezbollah fighter was killed in the strike.Kataib Hezbollah is part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a state-sponsored coalition of mostly Shia Iraqi militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS.The Iraqi government also condemned attacks on US forces but wants the US to cooperate with it to find the perpetrators rather than launch unilateral airstrikes. “It is a clearly hostile, unconstructive act that does not serve the interests of long-term common interests,” the government said of the US strikes.Since mid-October, US forces have come under attack over 100 times in Iraq and Syria due to President Biden’s full-throated support for the Israeli onslaught on Gaza. An umbrella group of Iraqi Shia militias known as the Islamic Resistance of Iraq has taken credit for most of the attacks, including the one that wounded three US troops on Monday, which targeted a base in Erbil.The US has launched several rounds of airstrikes against Shia militias in Iraq and Syria since October, but they have not deterred the groups from launching more attacks. Al Mayadeen reported that another attack targeted a US base in Syria on Tuesday.

Biden Tells Congress He Launched Airstrikes in Iraq to 'Deter' Future Attacks - In a letter to Congress, President Biden said he launched Christmas Day airstrikes in Iraq to deter future attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria, but the attacks have continued since then.The Pentagon said the airstrikes targeted three facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, and came in response to an attack on a US base in Erbil that wounded three US troops. The Iraqi government slammed the US for carrying out the airstrikes, saying the bombings killed one serviceman and wounded 18 people, including civilians.“On the night of December 25, 2023, at my direction, United States forces conducted discrete strikes against three facilities in Iraq used by Iran-affiliated groups for training, logistics support, and other purposes,” Biden said in his letter to Congress. “The strikes were taken to deter future attacks and were conducted in a manner designed to limit the risk of escalation and minimize civilian casualties.”Al M ayadeen reported that since the US airstrikes were launched, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Shia militias, has claimed five more attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. An attack on Wednesday againtargeted US troops based in Erbil, Iraq.Biden said the approximately 2,500 US troops based in Iraq are there under the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, which was passed in the wake of 9/11. On paper, US troops are stationed in Iraq to assist the Iraqi government in its fight against ISIS, a group that did not exist when the 2001 AUMF became law. Biden also claimed that he could bomb Iraq using authorities granted to him by the Constitution.“I directed this military action consistent with my responsibility to protect United States citizens both at home and abroad and in furtherance of United States national security and foreign policy interests, pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive and to conduct United States foreign relations,” Biden said.

Iraqi PM Says Baghdad Is 'Heading Towards' Ending the US Military Presence in the Country - Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said his government is “heading towards” ending the presence of international forces in Iraq, which includes about 2,500 US troops, the largest foreign contingent.Al-Sudani’s comments came after his government strongly condemned several rounds of US airstrikes in Iraq as a violation of sovereignty and a hostile act. In the latest strikes, the US said it targeted the Shia militia Kataib Hezbollah in retaliation for an attack on a US base, but al-Sudani’s government said civilians were also wounded in the US bombing.“We are in the process of rearranging the relationship with the international coalition, as in light of the presence of capable Iraqi forces, the Iraqi government is moving towards ending the presence of the international coalition forces,” al-Sudani said at a press conference with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.Spain has 300 troops stationed in Iraq as part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition. “My country, always at the request of the Iraqi authorities, will support the unity, sovereignty and stability of Iraq,” Sanchez said at the press conference.Al-Sudani first came into office at the end of 2022 and made his first public comments on US troops in Iraq in 2023, when he expressed support for the presence of foreign forces. But he’s been under increasing pressure to get them out, especially now as Iraq has become a battleground between Shia militias and the US due to President BIden’s full-throated support for Israel’s Gaza onslaught.The US has been resisting Iraqi efforts to expel its forces from the country since 2020 when a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. In the wake of the killings, Iraq’s parliament voted to expel foreign forces, but the US refused to leave. The US formally changed its presence in Iraq from a combat role to an advisory one in December 2021, but it did not withdraw any troops at the time.If al-Sudani tries to expel foreign forces from his country, Washington could make things difficult for him. The US has leverage over Iraq because, since the 2003 invasion, the country’s foreign reserves have been held by the US Federal Reserve, giving Washington control over Baghdad’s dollar supply and the ability to devalue the Iraqi dinar. The US also keeps tight control over Iraq’s ability to pay its neighbor Iran for much-needed electricity.

Taunting Biden, Iran Now Threatens To Close Mediterranean Sea Over Gaza War = Pressure is mounting on the Biden administration to respond to Iran or its Middle East regional proxies in some way (the Houthis and Hezbollah). Not only has global shipping been forced to divert from the Red Sea amid what at this point has been dozens of drone and rocket attacks, but American bases in Syrian and Iraq have come under attack more than 100 times since mid-October, in relation to Israel's operation in Gaza.But Tehran itself is now pressuring the White House, openly taunting Biden in relation to his support to Israel. In a Saturday statement the Iranian government threatened that the Mediterranean Sea could be "closed" due to ongoing Israeli and US "crimes" in Gaza. The threat is significant—whether they could actually ever accomplish such a thing is another question entirely."They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, (the Strait of) Gibraltar and other waterways," Iranian Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi was quoted in state media and Reuters as saying."Yesterday, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz became a nightmare for them, and today they are trapped... in the Red Sea," Naqdi said In more normal times this would be ignored and taken as a delusional threat and claim. But the reality is that already some Mediterranean ports, especially Israeli ones, are seeing their imports plummet. Still, it's unclear how exactly Iran's military would hope to accomplish 'closing' off of the Mediterranean:The White House on Friday said Iran was "deeply involved" in planning operations against commercial vessels in the Red Sea.Iran has no direct access to the Mediterranean itself and it was not clear how the Guards could attempt to close it off, although Naqdi talked of "the birth of new powers of resistance and the closure of other waterways". This also appears a response to the Friday White House charge that Iran was "deeply involved" in planning attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, which US Navy warships on repeat occasions have responded to. At various times the US has intercepted drones and missiles from Yemen, but has yet to attempt to hit back directly at Houthi positions.

Former Israeli PM Pushes for US To Lead Iran Regime Change Effort - The hawkish Wall Street Journal has run an op-ed from the even more hawkish Naftali Bennett, Israel’s Prime Minister from 2020 to 2022. As usual, Bennett focused heavily on the need for military action against Iran, saying the US should be leading a global effort to impose regime change on them.The argument for regime change is, of course, nothing new for Israeli hawks, while the case for the US taking charge is particularly self-serving as Israel is busy committing its military to an open-ended military campaign in the Gaza Strip. The US is backing Israel and arming them for the Gaza War, so to Bennett it makes sense to use America to pick the fight with Iran.Interestingly, Bennett argued against Israel focusing on attacking Hamas and Hezbollah, calling Iran their “primary enemy”, and saying Irans must always be the focus (with the US expected, evidently, to do the focusing). Attacking Hamas, even with huge civilian casualties, is politically very popular within Israel, so the Gaza War is unlikely to be slowed down.In the opinion piece, Bennett made another piece of international news, revealing that Israel was behind the February 2022 military attack on an Iranian drone base. Iran had accused Israel of this all along, but this is the first time a high-level Israeli official has admitted to it. Israel at the time focused on attacking Iran targets in Syria, and mostly did not directly attack inside Iran.Whether the US was directly informed of the operation remains unclear, although Bennett made noteworthy comments in February 2022, saying President Joe Biden was absolutely supportive of Israel taking “freedom of action” militarily against Iran. This could imply Biden’s knowledge of or at least suggest he gave a de facto imprimatur for the strike.The 2022 strike, on a base near Kermanshah, was said to destroy hundreds of Iranian drones according to the Israeli media. Bennett also claimed it killed an Iran Revolutionary Guard member.The attack came apparently from Israeli drones out of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iran blamed Israel from the start, and attacked a target in Irbil in response, saying it was an Israeli intelligence base. Unconfirmed media reports claimed that four Israeli officers were killed in the strike and seven more injured.

US Allies Reluctant to Join Anti-Houthi Red Sea Naval Coalition - While the US is trying to put on a united front to prevent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, many US allies are reluctant to participate in the task force that’s been formed, formally known as Operation Prosperity Guardian,Reuters reported on Thursday. The Pentagon claims 20 countries are participating in the operation, but the US has only announced 12. “We’ll allow other countries, defer to them to talk about their participation,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters last week. Even some of the countries the US said were members of the coalition have issued statements distancing themselves from it. After the US announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian and said Spain was a participant, Madrid denied its involvement. The Spanish Defense Ministry said it “will not participate unilaterally in the Red Sea operation.”Italy, which was also included in the US announcement, said it would send a frigate to protect Italian shipping interests but made clear the deployment was not part of the US-led operation.Notably absent from the coalition is Saudi Arabia, one of the US’s main partners in the region. The US has backed Riyadh in a war against the Houthis since 2015, but Saudi Arabia is now seeking peace and fears its involvement could provoke Houthi attacks on its oil infrastructure. Bahrain is the only Arab country that the US said was part of the operation.The Houthis started the attacks against Israel-linked shipping due to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and said they won’t stop until the siege ends. Countries are likely reluctant to participate in the US-led coalition because they don’t want to appear to be supporting the Israeli massacre, which has killed over 21,000 Palestinians.On Thursday, the US announced new sanctions targeting a financial network allegedly tied to the Houthis over the attacks in the Red Sea. There’s no sign the Houthis will back down in the face of US sanctions or other actions.

US Says It Shot Down 12 Houthi Drones, 5 missiles in Red Sea - US Central Command said Tuesday that a US warship and fighter jets shot down 12 drones and five missiles in the Red Sea that were fired by Yemen’s Houthis as tensions continue to rise in the region due to the Israeli assault on Gaza. CENTCOM said the missiles and drones were “fired by the Houthis over a 10-hour period which began at approximately 6:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) on December 26.” The command said the US Navy destroyer USS Laboon and F/A-18 jets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group were involved in the incident. It’s unclear from the CENTCOM statement what the drone and missile barrage was targeting. “There was no damage to ships in the area or reported injuries,” CENTCOM said.For their part, the Houthis said they targeted the Israeli port city of Eilat and a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, the MSC United. The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have vowed to target any ships heading to or from Israel in the region and are not backing down in the face of a new 10-nation naval task force that’s been launched by the US. Houthi officials have made clear that the only way for their attacks on commercial shipping to end is if the Israeli siege on Gaza is lifted and a durable ceasefire is reached. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior member of the Houthis’ political bureau, said that even if “America succeeds in mobilizing the entire world, our military operations will not stop.”

Yemen's Houthis Claim US Missile Nearly Hit Tanker From Russia in Red Sea - Yemen's Houthi movement has claimed a missile from a US warship exploded near a tanker from Russia in the Red Sea. The tanker is owned in Gabon and was travelling from Russia. The missile came from a US battleship targeting Yemen's naval forces, news organisation Al Arabiya reported on Sunday, citing comments from a Houthi representative. The tanker is owned in Gabon and was travelling from Russia, according to the report. "Countries bordering the Red Sea must realize the reality of the dangers that threaten their national security," the Houthi representative was cited as saying. Commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea has come in for a spate of attacks from the Houthis in recent weeks in a response to the worsening conflict in Gaza. A tanker in the Indian Ocean was also targeted for a drone attack on Saturday, with the attack reportedly being launched from Iran.

Russia extends cross-flight programme with NASA until 2025 – Roscosmos - Russia's space state agency Roscosmos said on Thursday that a cross-flight programme with NASA to the International Space Station (ISS) had been extended until 2025, Interfax news agency reported. The cross-flights were extended "in order to maintain the reliability of the ISS operation" and will be carried out on Russian and U.S. spacecraft, Roscosmos said. The cross-flights involve sending one American astronaut to the ISS as part of the crew of a Russian spacecraft, and vice versa - one Russian cosmonaut as part of an American crew, Interfax reported

US Tries to Reassure Shippers of Red Sea Safety - The US military is trying to reassure shipping companies that a multinational force is making it safe to sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal even though attacks from Yemen-based Houthi rebels show no sign of stopping. The Pentagon is “engaged with industry on a near-daily basis to gauge needs and provide reassurance that the international community is there to help with safe passage,” Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Bryon McGarry, a Defense Department spokesperson for the Middle East and Africa, said Thursday in an emailed response to questions. So far, that’s not proving enough for most shipping lines to gamble that a drone or missile aimed at their vessels won’t be one that gets past the defenses. “It will take a little while for shippers to get a sense about the security situation,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine officer and senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “If it turns out that the US and the coalition can maintain safe passage, then I think they’ll come back. But right now they really can’t be sure.” Cancian said in an interview that some shippers will remain “more risk-averse than others. Ones that have connections with Israel might be more reticent.” The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have said they’re targeting ships linked to Israel to show support for Palestinians, though ships without direct links to Israel also have been singled out. On Thursday, the USS Mason, a guided missile destroyer, shot down a missile and a drone over the southern Red Sea, according to US Central Command. “There was no damage to any of the 18 ships in the area or reported injuries,” Central Command said in a Thursday night post on X, the former Twitter. Half of the container-ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is avoiding the route now because of the threat of attacks, according to new industry data. Many tankers and container ships are resorting to the longer — and costlier — route around the southern tip of Africa, which may lead to higher prices for oil and a variety of consumer goods. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s No. 2 container line, said it’s preparing to resume Red Sea passages “as soon as operationally possible.” But even Maersk has cautioned that “the overall risk is not eliminated in the area,” and the company said it would “not hesitate” to re-evaluate the safety situation for its vessels and employees.

Sen. Lindsey Graham Calls for US to Blow Parts of Iran 'Off the Map' - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has called for the US to bomb Iran in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, saying Iranian bases and oil fields should be blown “off the map.” The hawkish senator claimed that without Iran, there would be no Houthis. But the Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, are a homegrown movement of Zaydi Shia Muslims. Zaydi Shia Imams ruled the area of north Yemen that the Houthis now control for about 1,000 years until 1962.“Without Iran there are no Houthis,” Graham told Fox & Friends on Wednesday. “The Houthis are completely backed by Iran. I have been saying for six months now…hit Iran. They have oil fields out in the open, they have the Revolutionary Guard headquarters you can see from space. Blow it off the map.”The Houthis have been targeting Israel-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea and have made clear they will not stop until Israel ends its siege on Gaza. The US launched a military operation in response but has not targeted the Houthis directly, which would involve bombing Yemen.Graham criticized the Biden administration for not bombing the Houthis, which would jeopardize a peace deal in Yemen. “We’re fighting the Houthis. We beat the Germans and the Japanese. We should be able to beat the Houthis. Secretary Austin and the Biden administration’s failing our troops in the field,” he said.Known for his extremely hawkish rhetoric, Graham has been a staunch backer of Israel’s massacre in Gaza, previously saying there’s “no limit” to how many civilians Israel can kill. He also described the situation in Gaza as a “religious war” and called for Gaza to be completely leveled.

Kim Jong Un calls to ‘accelerate’ war preparations following ‘confrontation moves’ from the US -North Korea’s Kim Jong Un called for the acceleration of war preparations in response to what he described as “unprecedented” confrontation moves from the United States, state media reported Wednesday.The comments came during an annual multi-day meeting of North Korea’s ruling party, the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), during which North Korean officials wrap up the year and outline policy objectives for the following year.The remarks also follow months of heightened rhetoric from North Korea about the so-called threat coming from the United States and its alliances with South Korea, Japan and other democratic countries near the peninsula. Kim has accused the United States of taking provocative moves with its military, arguing for the need to increase readiness.Kim, in his remarks, “set forth the militant tasks for the People’s Army and the munitions industry, nuclear weapons and civil defence sectors to further accelerate the war preparations,” according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)These directions were made, Kim claimed, on “the basis of in-depth analysis of the grave political and military situation in the Korean peninsula which reached extreme due to the anti-DPRK confrontation moves of the U.S. and its vassal forces unprecedented in history.”KCNA also reported that North Korea plans to increase its “strategic cooperation” with “anti-imperialist countries.”“He clarified the independent principle of the WPK to expand and develop the relations of strategic cooperation with the anti-imperialist independent countries and dynamically wage the anti-imperialist joint action and struggle on an international scale under the rapidly changing world geo-political situation and indicated the orientation of the external affairs and the work towards the south,” the report read.

Biden’s immigration problems grow with caravan headlines -A migrant caravan slowly making its way north from Mexico’s border with Guatemala is taking center stage in the immigration debate as the Biden administration turns to Mexico for help in reducing border crossings. The group of about 6,000 people took over immigration headlines that had been previously occupied by bipartisan Senate negotiations, but it’s likely to produce similar results. The Senate talks to tie Ukraine aid to permanent border policy changes fizzled out as the holidays approached and are unlikely to return to the limelight in January, when Congress will be under deadline to keep the government open. Migrant caravans, say Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials, also tend to fizzle out. “These reported caravans generally travel very slowly and often splinter before they make progress moving northbound towards the Southwest Border. Nevertheless, CBP will continue to monitor developments in coordination with our foreign and interagency counterparts as we have with previous movements of migrants,” said a CBP spokesperson in a statement. Nevertheless, news of the caravan has overshadowed a high-level visit to Mexico led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken — and kept migration in the spotlight. That’s bad news for President Biden, whose two weakest issues heading into the 2024 reelection campaign are his age and border security. But it also underscores how deeply politicized migration has become: News of caravans forming periodically surface in a negative light, though the caravans rarely have a tangible effect on border operations. Caravans are loosely enjoined groups of people who travel through Mexico together to minimize their exposure to criminals or corrupt officials. The caravans also serve a political purpose, giving organizers and migrants exposure for their cause; the latest caravan was dubbed an “exodus from poverty” by organizers seeking to avoid official retaliation for leaving the southern city of Tapachula without government consent. But with large numbers of migrants moving north within caravans or in smaller groups, the logistics of caravans become mostly irrelevant to border officials. “How they get to the border if they enter illegally has no bearing on how they are processed,” a CBP official told The Hill. Still, the “exodus from poverty” caravan dominated the issue as Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador hosted Blinken, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall to discuss how to address the mass movement of people through Mexico.’

What to know about the migrant caravan heading to the US -A migrant caravan departed Mexico’s southern city of Tapachula on Monday, as the Biden administration ratchets up pressure on Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to impose tighter limits on migrants crossing his country. The reportedly 6,000-strong caravan is the largest organized group of migrants to form in Tapachula since 2022, when news of a similarly sized caravan threatened to overshadow the Summit of the Americas, hosted in Los Angeles by the Biden administration. The new Christmas caravan promises to be a political headache for both President Biden and López Obrador, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and White House homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall are due to meet the Mexican president Wednesday. That meeting will follow phone conversations between the two presidents, in which López Obrador called on Biden to reduce sanctions on Cuba as part of a strategy to reduce migration in the hemisphere. More coverage from The Hill Congresswoman dubs border agents under Biden ‘travel agents’ Biden, Mexican president agree actions to reopen border ports are ‘urgently needed’ Speaker Johnson urges Biden to take executive action on the border Texas governor’s move sets up showdown with feds over border But according to local reports, the caravan is in part motivated by Mexican enforcement actions in Tapachula, near the border with Guatemala. According to Diario del Sur, a local publication, more than 100,000 migrants are stalled in the city, awaiting paperwork allowing them free transit through Mexico. In the past, Mexico’s strategy of slow-walking papers has led to unrest among migrants eager to leave the country’s poorest regions. That unrest can contribute to the organization of caravans, in which migrants travel together both for protection against organized crime and against extortion demands from corrupt Mexican officials. According to reports, the caravan’s leaders are carrying banners calling the movement an “exodus from poverty,” and it is mainly composed of people from Cuba, Haiti and Honduras. According to the BBC, activist Luis García Villagrán in part blamed the movement on the ease of crossing from Guatemala to Tapachula. “The problem is that the southern border [with Guatemala] is open, and 800 to 1,000 people are crossing it daily. If we don’t get out of Tapachula, the town will collapse,” García Villagrán told the BBC.

NY lawmaker: Talks between Biden officials and Mexico ‘too little, too late’ -Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) hammered the Biden administration’s border policy on Wednesday, describing meetings with the Mexican government as “too little, too late,” as the focus on immigration grows sharper for the 2024 election cycle.Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas were in Mexico City on Wednesday to discuss cross-border migration policy.“I don’t expect anything to come out of it, we have people on the other side of the aisle who are claiming this is the administration stepping up and looking to do something,” D’Esposito said during an interview on “The Hill on NewsNation.” “Have they kept their head in the sand for that long that they haven’t realized that this has become an issue plaguing our entire country?” he continued. “Every state is now a border state, every city a border city.”Republicans have slammed the Biden administration on immigration, painting the issue as a crisis and of central importance to the 2024 election.Some Democrats have also called on the federal government to bring more attention to the issue. New York City Mayor Eric Adams and Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) have feuded with Biden over immigration aid in recent months.In recent weeks, the Biden administration has negotiated with Senate Republicans on a broad border security deal. Senate Republicans held a Biden foreign aid budget hostage in the meantime, saying that it will not pass until Congress can agree on a border security bill. It’s unclear if the two sides will agree on a final proposal, and negotiations are expected to pick up again after the holiday break.

Why Canada is alerting its citizens about US travel risks - ‘They will be refused care’: Inside an American ally’s decision to warn citizens about the US — It was a polite Canadian warning from a close friend and neighbor.But Canada’s updated travel advisory to its citizens, counseling them to be careful about traveling to the United States, set off an international furor last summer.The message renewed attention over the rightward shift in state-level policies governing abortion and the rights of LGBTQ+ people — a trend that has stirred deep concern in Canada, especially after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.And the previously unreported back story behind the travel communique is even more revealing, exposing the delicate dance of a left-of-center Canadian government as it sought to navigate America’s incendiary cultural politics without imperiling the tightest of alliances.The travel advisory that went viral was 71 days in the making.Correspondence shared with POLITICO through a freedom-of-information request reveals the change started with a concern raised by federal health department officials about Canadian travelers’ access to emergency care in an era of backsliding U.S. abortion rights.The internal emails reveal Canada was aware it was an “outlier” among “most-like-minded” countries because its official U.S. travel advice was lacking “some languages on 2SLGBTQI+ issues.”The U.K. issued an advisory against travel to southern U.S. states in April 2016 over anti-LGBTQ+ laws. Australia updated its advisory with tougher language last year. Canada, officials believed, had some catching up to do.The update came shortly after Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly alluded to a “game plan” to manage “a rather difficult situation” if the result of next year’s election puts Donald Trump back in the White House and America on a hard-right, authoritarian path. It’s urgent homework U.S. democratic allies are figuring out.Friction between the Canadian government and hardline Republicans in the United States is not a new dynamic. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has used the far right as a foil for years, including recently ratcheting up his rhetoric to brand his domestic political rivals as “MAGA conservatives,” linking them to Donald Trump’s political movement.When Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, Trudeau declared the decision“horrific” and doubled down on abortion rights. He has also spoken out against the rise of anti-LGBTQ+ laws in America making their own imprint in some Canadian provinces.The official travel advisory, issued on Aug. 29, was more restrained.“Some states have enacted laws and policies that may affect 2SLGBTQI+ persons. Check relevant state and local laws,” read the August posting from Global Affairs Canada (GAC), employing a term for the broad LGBTQ+ community that is used in Canada.The language was simple. The bureaucratic process of formulating it was not.The paper trail reveals worries that discriminatory health care policies could be barriers for international travelers from receiving emergency attention.In the year since the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal on Roe v. Wade, 14 stateshave declared abortion illegal. A wave of bans have made it harder for transgender youth to receive gender-affirming care in Republican states including Arkansas, Alabama, Arizona and Tennessee.On June 19, a manager working in Health Canada’s strategic policy branch on sexual and reproductive health emailed two senior Global Affairs Canada department officials, citing concerns from “a variety of sources” about scenarios Canadians could encounter in regions of the U.S. that have enshrined anti-trans hate into state-level laws.“Pregnant Canadians travelling in certain U.S. states might not receive the kinds of care they’d expect if they run into complications in their pregnancy,” read the email. “And, we’re hearing concerns about trans Canadians (and in some cases caregivers travelling with trans youth) who might need to travel to certain states.”

IRS Rakes In Record $4.9 Trillion In Taxes From Americans Amid Enforcement Crackdown The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) raked in a record $4.9 trillion in taxes from Americans in the last fiscal year, due in large part to automated collections processes and aggressive audits that saw taxpayers hit with billions in additional taxes after examination.The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA), the watchdog that oversees the IRS, revealed in a Dec. 20 report on tax compliance activities that the agency collected a record-breaking amount of money in fiscal year 2022 from American taxpayers.The $4.9 trillion the tax agency raked in last year was around $790 billion more than the prior year, thanks in large measure to a significant increase in enforcement revenue.The IRS collected $72 billion in revenue from its enforcement activities in FY 2022, not far below the record-setting $75 billion in FY 2021 but well above the historical average of around $59 billion (from 2013-2020).All those dollars rolling in from enforcement activities are likely to rise going forward, given that the IRS announced over the summer that, thanks to a new funding boost, it was launching a “sweeping, historic” tax enforcement initiative using artificial intelligence (AI) and other cutting edge technologies to crack down more effectively on non-compliant taxpayers.But while AI and other advanced computer algorithms have yet to be deployed at the IRS on a large scale as the agency continues to modernize its systems, automation has already bolstered the agency’s ability to stuff the government’s coffers—even as the overall number of examinations declined, as did the number of enforcement agents.“The revenue collection was driven substantially by automated collection processes,” the TIGTA report states. Roughly 74 percent of the IRS’ enforcement revenue was collected within the agency’s Collection notice stream and the Automated Collection System (ACS).While the IRS is poised to continue increasing its reliance on automated systems to squeeze more tax dollars from taxpayers, it’s also looking to hire another 3,700 tax enforcers as it spends an extra $46 billion of the recent $80 billion (later reduced to $60 billion via debt ceiling negotiations) funding boost on enforcement.Another important factor why the IRS managed to take in a record amount of tax revenue last year was hitting taxpayers with aggressive additional tax assessments after examinations.The watchdog report shows that, after audits, the IRS levied an additional $30.2 billion in taxes on Americans last year, roughly 13 percent more than in 2021 and a whopping 75 percent more than in 2019.When the IRS completes an examination, it can either leave the tax assessment “as is” or it can propose an adjustment (up or down) that increases or reduces the amount of tax owed.“The general trend of proposed additional tax from FY 2019 to FY 2022 is over a 75 percent increase in the total proposed additional tax resulting from examinations, and the most significant increase (136 percent) was from correspondence examinations,” the watchdog said. Over the past four years, the IRS’ examinations function proposed nearly $90 billion in additional taxes on U.S. taxpayers.

Billionaire Gifts to Thomas: Generosity or Taxable Income? - When Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas flouted longstanding ethics laws by refusing to disclose billionaire gifts, he avoided public outrage for years. Based on new revelations about the potential motivations behind those gifts, he also may have avoided laws requiring Americans to pay taxes on such donations, legal experts have told The Lever.Recent reporting from ProPublica revealed that Thomas was showered with luxury gifts from wealthy benefactors, including vacations, private flights, school tuition, and even a loan for a high-end RV. Though Thomas has insisted the gifts were just the innocent generosity of friends, many came after he threatened to resign over the justices’ low salaries — and one of Thomas’ vacation companions said the money was given to supplement the justice’s “limited salary.”According to experts, if these benefits were given to Thomas as a way to buttress his regular pay and keep him on the court, they could be considered a taxable transaction rather than a gift. By refusing to publicly disclose such transactions, Thomas made it impossible for watchdog groups to alert tax enforcement officials about the potential issue in real time. “If there are in fact people saying more or less, ‘We’re offering these goodies to the justice so that he will stay in his role’… it sounds like it would be taxable income for him,” said Brian Galle, a law professor at the Georgetown University Law Center who focuses on taxation. Much of the public outcry over Thomas’ long history of undisclosed gifts has centered on whether the activities violate federal ethics laws. Lawmakers have also zeroed in on one particular donation — a $267,000 loan Thomas used to purchase a RV — arguing that if part of that loan was forgiven, Thomas would have to pay taxes on that amount.Thomas has denied that the gifts were granted in exchange for favorable court rulings. Explaining that some of these donors were “among [his] dearest friends,” he declared in an April 7 statement via the Supreme Court’s public information office that the cushy trips they bankrolled were just vacations: “As friends do, we have joined them on a number of family trips during the more than quarter century we have known them.”But if these billionaires’ largesse were designed to retain the conservative judge on the country’s highest court, the donations might fall outside of the definition of tax-free gifts, which according to the Supreme Court must stem from “detached and disinterested generosity.” If the benefits showered on Thomas were designed to elicit court actions or job decisions, they could be considered taxable income, whether or not there is definitive proof of quid pro quo on Thomas’ part.“What Clarence Thomas has done would result in not only any judges in America being removed from the bench, but there is a good chance it would result in criminal prosecution for income tax fraud and for false filings in his mandatory financial ethics disclosure statements,” David Cay Johnston, a visiting lecturer at Syracuse University’s College of Law, told The Lever.

Despite blowback, Biden and Trump tread cautiously on US Steel sale - President Joe Biden expressed skepticism last Thursday about the sale of one of the country’s leading steel companies to a Japanese buyer, a deal that could emerge as a flashpoint in the 2024 election. The president “believes the purchase of this iconic American-owned company by a foreign entity — even one from a close ally — appears to deserve serious scrutiny in terms of its potential impact on national security and supply chain reliability,” White House national economic adviser Lael Brainard said in the administration’s most extensive comment yet on the more $14 billion-plus deal, which was announced Monday.The statement comes after the White House spent several days declining to comment on Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. steel, citing a potential government review.While rank-and-file lawmakers on the right and left have sharply criticized the deal, Biden and other leaders in both parties have been considerably more restrained — a sign of the countervailing economic and political pressures involved. Potential 2024 presidential rival, former President Donald Trump, has remained silent despite his embrace of protectionist policies. So have Democratic and Republican congressional leaders.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told POLITICO he hadn’t reviewed the sale, while Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Speaker Mike Johnson and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries haven’t commented on the deal to date.That caution underscores the conflicting politics at play in an election that is expected to hinge, in large part, on the candidates’ records protecting American industry and American workers. In the case of the U.S. Steel sale, those two goals may be at odds.As Christine McDaniel, a senior research fellow at the libertarian, pro-free market Mercatus Institute, pointed out, Japanese investors are responding to the U.S. government’s massive investment in domestic manufacturing in recent years, via funding in the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ marquee climate bill, among others.“They want a piece of that,” McDaniel said.Nippon Steel’s $14.1 billion cash offer is nearly double what fellow American steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs offered to pay for U.S. Steel in a merger bid in August. U.S. Steel’s stock price jumped 26 percent after the sale was announced Monday. But lawmakers, particularly those from U.S. Steel’s home base of Pennsylvania and other Rust Belt states, are pressuring the White House to use all the powers at its disposal to block the deal, arguing it will hurt unionized workers. Pennsylvania Democratic Sens. John Fetterman and Bob Casey and Rep. Chris Deluzio, laid out their opposition Tuesday in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who serves as head of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, a panel of top executive branch officials tasked with reviewing foreign investment for potential threats to national security.Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the influential chair of the Senate Banking Committee, echoed the call for a review in a letter to Biden sent Wednesday. Brown is one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents up for reelection in 2024. Casey is also up for reelection in what could face a competitive contest.Both Fetterman and Brown are warning Biden that the sale could hurt Democrats with organized labor.

Apple watch import ban upheld by Biden administration - The Biden administration has decided to uphold an import ban on some Apple watches in a health care patent infringement case brought by two companies in Irvine, Calif. The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled in October that Apple, Inc. infringed two patents owned by Masimo Corporation and Cercacor Laboratories, Inc. for a blood oxygen sensor that can read a person’s pulse.The decision was made by U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, who is delegated authority from the president to review and potentially overturn import ban orders imposed by the ITC under U.S. trade law.“After careful consultations, Ambassador Tai decided not to reverse the ITC’s determination and the ITC’s decision became final on December 26, 2023,” Tai’s office said Tuesday in a statement.Apple, which already has appealed the ITC decision to the Federal Circuit, announced earlier this month that it would stop selling the Series 9 and Ultra 2 versions of its popular watch while its legal challenge continues.“We strongly disagree with the USITC decision and resulting exclusion order, and are taking all measures to return Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2 to customers in the U.S. as soon as possible,” the company said after Tai’s decision was announced Tuesday.A Masimo spokesperson called Tai’s decision “a win for the integrity of the U.S. patent system, and ultimately American consumers who will benefit from an ecosystem that rewards true innovation.” Masimo also sells watches that monitor health data.

Congress warns science agency over AI grant to tech-linked think tank - Key members of the House Science Committee are sounding the alarm over a planned research partnership on artificial intelligence between the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the RAND Corp. — an influential think tank tied to tech billionaires, the AI industry and the controversial “effective altruism” movement.Lawmakers from both parties sent a letter to NIST on Dec. 14 that chastised the agency for a lack of transparency and for failing to announce a competitive process for planned research grants related to the new U.S. AI Safety Institute.The lawmakers also warned NIST about the quality of AI safety research stemming from outside groups, saying they routinely “hide behind secrecy,” “fail to provide evidence of their claims” and often disagree on basic definitions or principles.“We believe this work should not be rushed at the expense of doing it right,” wrote the six lawmakers, including House Science Chair Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), ranking member Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) and leaders of key subcommittees.NIST, a low-profile agency housed within the Commerce Department, has been central to President Joe Biden’s AI plans. The White House tasked NIST with establishing the AI Safety Institute in its October executive order on AI, and the agency released an influential framework to help organizations manage AI risks earlier this year.But NIST is also notoriously resource-strapped, and will almost certainly need help from outside researchers to fulfill its growing AI mandate.NIST has not publicly disclosed which groups it intends to give research grants to through the AI Safety Institute, and the House Science letter doesn’t identify the organizations at issue by name. But one of them is RAND, according to one AI researcher and one AI policy professional at a major tech company who each have knowledge of the situation.A recent RAND report on biosecurity risks posed by advanced AI models is listed in the House letter’s footnotes as a worrying example of research that has not gone through academic peer review.After this story published on Tuesday, RAND spokesperson Erin Dick said the House committee mischaracterized the think tank’s report on AI and biosecurity. Dick claimed that the report cited in the letter “went through the same rigorous quality assurance process as all RAND reports, including peer review,” and that all research cited in the report was also peer reviewed.

‘No one’s gonna want to be subjected to a product that’s going to violate their civil rights’ --The small agency tasked with enforcing workplace civil rights is readying itself for a big role in policing artificial intelligence. And a Republican-appointed commissioner has made it his mission to ensure the agency is ahead of the issue.“The difference with AI is the scalability of it,” said Keith Sonderling, a member of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. “Before, you have one person potentially making a biased hiring decision. AI, because it can be done at scale, can impact hundreds of thousands or millions of applicants.”A Society for Human Research Management survey last year suggested that 79 percent of AI’s use in the workplace is already focused on hiring and recruitment. And while Sonderling is in the minority of the five-person commission, he’s been one of its driving forces with respect to AI, taking an interest since 2021 and often speaking out publicly about employers’ obligations in using the new technology.Like EEOC Chair Charlotte Burrows, he’s emphasized that existing civil rights laws still apply to AI. He wants the EEOC and the human resources sector to take a leading role in showing how the government can deal with the new technology in different settings — and he wants to figure it out quickly.“You’re dealing with civil rights,” Sonderling, who’s also a former acting head of the Labor Department’s Wage and Hour Division, said. “The stakes are going to be higher.”In a conversation with POLITICO, the commissioner discussed how taking on AI has shaped his role on the EEOC, the commission’s new Silicon Valley focus, and whether you’ll know if a robot unlawfully rejects you from your next job.This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

FOBO? The WEF Predicts 44% Of Human Skills Will Be Replaced By AI In Five Years - If there was ever a moment in history when globalists have been unable to contain their unsettling glee it was the moment that Artificial Intelligence became a focus of public discourse. It's clear that the World Economic Forum worships AI – Lavishing the technology with praise and describing it as the end-all-be-all of human industry. AI, they claim, will change the world so rapidly that most people will not be able to keep up with the advancements.We have yet to see any of these advancements in the real world, of course. In fact, it's difficult to pinpoint any tangible benefits produced by AI so far other than making it easier for college kids to cheat on essays. And here is where we run into a disconnect between what the WEF predicts and what is most likely to happen according to the evidence.Is AI really the do-it-all technology that globalists make it out to be? Is half of humanity going to be replaced with automation? The establishment media has been building up this notion as an inevitability, with millions of people (mostly within Gen Z) now experiencing anxiety over the possibility that they will one day have no career options because of AI. The WEF even promotes a term for this feeling: FOBO (which apparently now means Fear Of Becoming Obsolete). FOBO originally meant “fear of better options,” but the WEF has co-opted it and adjusted it for their AI narrative. Automation is nothing new to first-world industries and adapting to it has not necessarily made anyone's place in the economy “obsolete.” The media tends to suggest that hands-on jobs in areas such as agriculture, manufacturing and retail are going the way of the Dodo soon. However, AI seems to represent a much greater threat to people in the white collar sector dealing with information tech. People in data collection, software development, web development, research analysis, information security, etc. are far more likely to be replaced by AI. AI essentially automates data applications, making it possible for the average layman to one day “code” in a way that once took programmers years to learn. For example, web development is becoming so automated these days it will not be long before web designers are out of work.

New York Times sues OpenAI, Microsoft over the use of its stories to train chatbots | Business - The New York Times has filed a federal lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft seeking to end the practice of using its stories to train chatbots, saying that copyright infringements at the paper alone could be worth billions. The paper joins a growing list of individuals and publishers trying to stop OpenAI from using copyrighted material. In the suit filed Wednesday in Manhattan federal court, the Times said OpenAI and Microsoft are advancing their technology through the “unlawful use of The Times’s work to create artificial intelligence products that compete with it” and “threatens The Times’s ability to provide that service”. OpenAI and Microsoft did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Media organisations have been pummelled by a migration of readers to online platforms and while many publications have carved out a digital space online as well, artificial intelligence technology has threatened to upend numerous industries, including media. Artificial intelligence companies scrape information available online, including articles published by media organisations, to train generative AI chatbots. Those companies have attracted billions in investments very rapidly. Microsoft has a partnership with OpenAI that allows it to capitalise on the AI technology made by the artificial intelligence company. The Redmon, Washington, tech giant is also OpenAI’s biggest backer and has invested billions of dollars into the company since the two began their partnership in 2019 with a US$1 billion investment. As part of the agreement, Microsoft’s supercomputers help power OpenAI’s AI research and the tech giant integrates the start-up’s technology into its products. The number of lawsuits filed against OpenAI for copyright infringement is growing. The company has been sued by a number of writers – including comedian Sarah Silverman – who say their books were ingested to train OpenAI’s AI models without their permission. In June, more than 4,000 writers signed a letter to the CEOs of OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Meta and other AI developers accusing them of exploitative practices in building chatbots that “mimic and regurgitate” their language, style and ideas. The lawsuit filed Wednesday said generative AI tools developed by OpenAI and Microsoft are closely summarising content from the Times, mimicking its style and even reciting it verbatim. The complaint cited examples of OpenAI’s GPT-4 spitting out large portions of news articles from the Times, including a Pulitzer-Prize winning investigation into New York City’s taxi industry that was published in 2019 and took 18 months to complete. It also cited outputs from Bing Chat that it said included verbatim excerpts from Times articles.

Biden’s menthol ban pits civil rights groups against each other - Opposition from prominent Black and civil rights groups is threatening to permanently derail Biden administration efforts to ban menthol cigarettes. The ban has also pitted organizations that are often allies, like the NAACP and the Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network (NAN), against each other. The tobacco industry has long been accused of targeting the Black community, especially with menthol products, while simultaneously courting and funding Black-led organizations, politicians and civil rights leaders in an effort to neutralize criticism. Menthol is a lucrative industry. Menthol-flavored cigarettes accounted for more than a third of all cigarette sales in the U.S. in 2021, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “The fact that 85 percent of Black people who smoke cigarettes smoke menthol cigarettes, it’s not a mistake. It’s not happenstance. It’s not culture. It’s not a preference for the taste. It is a concerted marketing effort by industry that infiltrated these communities to peddle these drugs, and they’ve done so successfully,” said Mignonne Guy, an associate professor and former chair of the Department of African American Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University. The political tide has been shifting in recent years, and a majority of the Congressional Black Caucus supports Biden’s proposal. But the White House earlier this month delayed the plan until at least March after critics argued the ban would unfairly target Black smokers and hurt the president’s re-election chances.

Trump hits Ohio governor over veto on proposed gender-affirming health care ban - Former President Trump went after Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) for vetoing a proposed ban on gender-affirming health care for transgender minors on Saturday. “DeWine has fallen to the Radical Left,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “No wonder he gets loudly booed in Ohio every time I introduce him at Rallies, but I won’t be introducing him any more. I’m finished with this ‘stiff.’ What was he thinking. The bill would have stopped child mutilation, and prevented men from playing in women’s sports. Legislature will hopefully overturn. Do it FAST!!!” The bill, House Bill 68, also had the aim of preventing transgender women and girls from competing as part of female school sports teams. The Ohio governor on Friday said he had spent the last two weeks since the bill was delivered to him on a “fact-finding mission,” saying he traveled to the Buckeye State and talked to medical professionals and the families of transgender children. He also said he talked to those who are against treatments like puberty blockers and hormone replacement therapy. “These are truly complex issues, and reasonable people draw vastly different conclusions,” DeWine said during a press conference on Friday. “This bill would impact a very small number of Ohio’s children, but for those children who face gender dysphoria, and for their families, the consequences of this could not be more profound.” “Ultimately, I believe this is about protecting human life,” DeWine added. “Many parents have told me that their child would not have survived — would be dead today — if they had not received the treatment they received from one of Ohio’s children’s hospitals.” “I cannot sign this bill as is currently written,” DeWine said, “and just a few minutes ago, I vetoed the bill.”

As Extra Medicaid Funding Phases Out at Year’s End, States Must Still Report Data and Comply with Federal Renewal Requirements, Center For Children and Families, georgetown.edu - Starting in 2024, states will no longer receive extra federal funding associated with the Medicaid continuous enrollment requirement that was in place from March 2020 through March 2023. But the recent Interim Final Rule with Comment (IFC) released by CMS reminds states that they must continue to meet data reporting requirements specified by Congress and comply with federal redetermination requirements or subject to financial penalties through June 2024. As background – in the final days of 2022, Congress passed the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022 (CAA) lifting the COVID-related Medicaid continuous enrollment requirement effective March 31, 2023. The CAA established specific state and federal data reporting obligations and provided additional enforcement tools for CMS to hold states accountable for data reporting and compliance with federal redetermination requirements. The CAA authorizes CMS to closely monitor the unwinding, which better positions CMS to take actions to prevent inappropriate coverage terminations during this critical period. While the regular regulatory process involves proposing a rule, taking public comment, and then issuing a final rule before the provisions become final, an interim final rule (IFR) allows the agency to enforce a rule quickly. The IRC, which codifies the statutory requirements passed by Congress just before the end of 2022, was effective on December 6, 2023. However, the agency is taking comments on the proposed rule until February 2, 2024.

Trump vows to replace ObamaCare with his own alternative -Former President Trump on Monday vowed to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) with his own “much better” alternative program, reviving his push to slash the now-popular healthcare option used by millions of Americans. “Obamacare is too expensive, and otherwise, not good healthcare,” Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination next year, wrote in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social. “I will come up with a much better, and less expensive, alternative! People will be happy, not sad!” While attacking President Obama’s signature health care law had once been a popular political message among GOP voters, the law now has significant support across the country, with 60 percent of Americans holding a favorable view of the health law. After several failed “repeal and replace” efforts in Congress and a number of losing battles in court, Republicans have largely given up on the issue, focusing instead of issues like the economy and crime. Last month, Trump similarly resurfaced his criticism of the health-care law, catching many GOP lawmakers off guard when pressed by reporters on his policy proposal. Trump, facing some pressure, tried to walk back his comments, saying, “I don’t want to terminate Obamacare, I want to REPLACE IT with MUCH BETTER HEALTHCARE.” “Getting much better Healthcare than Obamacare for the American people will be a priority of the Trump Administration. It is not a matter of cost, it is a matter of HEALTH,” he wrote on Truth Social last month. “America will have one of the best Healthcare Plans anywhere in the world. Right now it has one of the WORST!” GOP lawmakers made clear that was unlikely to happen. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said, “Whether we can build a political consensus for something else or not remains to be seen.” Sen. Bill Cassidy (La.), the ranking Republican on the Senate Health Committee, similarly expressed doubt over the likelihood of finding an alternative to ObamaCare. “It’s a narrowly divided Congress. It’s unlikely to happen,” he said.

Heritage Foundation Sues CIA Over Alleged Lab-Leak Bribes -The Heritage Foundation has sued the CIA for records related to allegations that the agency's COVID Discovery Team received 'monetary incentives' (bribes) to change their position on the origins of the virus, and refused to comply with a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, the Daily Caller reports.Heritage’s Oversight Project filed a lawsuit Friday against the CIA after the agency did not comply with a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for records connected to its team tasked with investigating the lab leak theory, which posits that COVID-19 was created in and escaped from a laboratory rather than being transmitted to humans by animals."This is an action under the Freedom of Information Act (‘FOIA’), 5 U.S.C. § 552, to compel production of CIA records relating to allegations that members of the CIA’s COVID Discovery Team, a group of employees tasked with analyzing the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, received monetary incentives to change their position on the origins of the virus," reads the lawsuit, filed in the US District Court for the District of Columbia.The lawsuit seeks to compel the CIA to produce all non-exempt records under Heritage's original FOIA requests, and to cover costs incurred by the foundation.The Herigage Foundation Oversight Project is a government accountability watchdog created by the conservative think tank. In September, they began looking into the alleged bribes after a current CIA officer-turned whistleblower alerted Congress to what he said was "a significant monetary incentive to change their position" - telling House committee leaders that his agency ' tried to pay off six analysts who found SARS-CoV-2 likely originated in a Wuhan lab if they changed their position and said the virus jumped from animals to humans,' according to a the committees."According to the whistleblower, at the end of its review, six of the seven members of the Team believed the intelligence and science were sufficient to make a low confidence assessment that COVID-19 originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China," reads a letter from the House panel chairmen."The seventh member of the Team, who also happened to be the most senior, was the lone officer to believe COVID-19 originated through zoonosis.Heritage's original FOIA request sought records from the creation of the CIA's discovery team, as well as all records shared among team members associated with the COVID-19 origins investigation - which is to include any financial bonuses and communications between discovery team members and people from various other government agencies.

House GOP traps itself in impeachment box - Now that House Republicans have formalized the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, anything less than voting to remove him could look like failure. Right now, though, they don’t have the votes to do that — putting them in a bind of their own making. Much of the House GOP has tried to keep the question of a full-scale removal vote at arm’s length, despite the course they’ve charted toward formal articles of impeachment. It’s not hard to see why: They’ll start the election year with only a three-vote majority, which could shrink even further, and 17 incumbents who represent districts Biden won. Plus, Democrats are almost guaranteed to unanimously oppose impeachment. All that means a vote to recommend booting the president from office would be highly risky. Republicans stress they’ve only endorsed giving their investigations more legal teeth, as they’ve struggled to find clear evidence linking decisions made by Joe Biden to his family’s business deals. And that’s the bar some centrists have emphasized that investigators need to clear in order to earn enough votes. House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.), flanked by House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), arrives to speak with reporters at the U.S. Capitol. Every presidential impeachment inquiry in modern times has led to a formal impeachment vote — except in the case of Richard Nixon, who resigned from office before that could happen. A GOP failure to follow suit this time would likely mean severe backlash from the right flank, former President Donald Trump and an increasingly restless base who, some Republicans acknowledge, treat impeachment as a fait accompli. “I think there’s an expectation in the base now: ‘You voted for impeachment.’ … They look at this as an impeachment vote,” Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) said of the inquiry, which he ultimately voted to formalize despite criticizing it just days before. He said he hadn’t changed his thinking on impeachment itself. Leadership has a short window to find an off-ramp that would please both the impeachment skeptics and supporters within their own ranks. Investigators want to decide as early as late January on drafting impeachment articles, but whether the conference has the votes to recommend booting the president will likely factor into leaders’ decision to go further down that path. There are a few remaining steps in between that investigators hope might shore up more votes. That includes a potential court fight, an ongoing standoff against Hunter Biden — whom Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) have threatened to hold in contempt of Congress — lingering document requests, and a report on their findings. “There’ll be some kind of report that I assume would come from Oversight and then, you know, the conference will make a decision on whether there’s actual articles,” Jordan said when asked who will make the call to take that step. Jordan added that he believes the case they’ve put together so far is “compelling,” and even Speaker Mike Johnson has hinted that he believes Joe Biden committed impeachable offenses. But behind closed doors, leaders have emphasized they don’t want to rush into a preconceived endgame. And skepticism within the conference extends well beyond just battleground district Republicans. Impeachment and formalizing an inquiry are “not the same thing. An inquiry is, they’ll do the work. … I think anybody could vote from any political stripe to have an inquiry, to ask questions. It doesn’t compel you to do anything about an actual impeachment vote,” said Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), who hails from a solidly Republican district.

GOP suggests President Biden may have obstructed justice in son’s defying subpoena --House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are suggesting that President Biden may have “engaged in a conspiracy to obstruct a proceeding of Congress” if he knew that his son Hunter Biden planned to defy a congressional subpoena.In a Wednesday letter to Edward Siskel, a White House counsel and assistant to the president, the committee chairs requested documents and communications from employees of the Executive Office of the President regarding the deposition of Hunter Biden.Comer and Jordan pointed to a statement from White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre to justify their suspicion of obstruction and said it “could constitute an impeachable offense.”The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The charge comes two weeks after Hunter Biden defied a subpoena from House Republicans as part of their impeachment probe concerning the president’s relationship with his family’s business dealings. The White House has repeatedly asserted that the president had no involvement in those business dealings, and it has rebuffed other accusations of obstruction by pointing to numerous Biden administration officials speaking to the committees.In response to the House GOP subpoena to appear in a closed-door deposition, Hunter Biden had offered to speak in a public hearing, with his attorney pointing to a previous statement from Comer saying that witnesses could come in “depositions or committee hearings, whichever they choose.” But Comer and Jordan said a closed-door format was necessary first.Rather than appear for the deposition scheduled for Dec. 13, Hunter Biden spoke outside the Capitol — in a space recorded to be reserved by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) — and made a statement to the press asserting that his father was never financially involved with his businesses. House Republicans have pledged to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress over his failure to appear for the closed-door session.Comer and Jordan wrote that a statement from Jean-Pierre indicated that “President Biden was aware in advance that his son, Hunter Biden, would knowingly defy two congressional subpoenas,” compelling them “to examine as part of our impeachment inquiry whether the President engaged in a conspiracy to obstruct a proceeding of Congress.” The day that Hunter Biden did not appear for the deposition, Jean-Pierre in a press briefing dodged questions about whether he should appear for a subpoena but said the president had some insight ahead of his son’s comments.“The president was certainly familiar with what his son was going to say, and I think what you saw was from the heart from his son,” she said.Comer and Jordan also brought up a Dec. 6 statement from Biden saying that claims he interacted with his son and brother’s foreign business partners were “a bunch of lies.” Devon Archer, a former Hunter Biden business partner, has testified that Biden exchanged pleasantries with some of Hunter Biden’s foreign business partners on speakerphone phone calls and during a 2014 dinner at Cafe Milano but did not discuss business.“In light of this evidence, the fact that the President had advanced awareness that Mr. Biden would defy the Committees’ subpoenas raises a troubling new question that we must examine: whether the President corruptly sought to influence or obstruct the Committees’ proceeding by preventing, discouraging, or dissuading his son from complying with the Committees’ subpoenas,” the letter said. “Such conduct could constitute an impeachable offense.”

House Republicans Zero In On 'Impeachable Offense' If Biden Was Involved In Hunter Subpoena Dodge --House Republicans are investigating whether President Biden was involved in his son Hunter's "scheme" to duck out on a Congressional subpoena to testify earlier this month, which they say "could constitute an impeachable offense." Three House committees; Oversight, Judiciary and Ways & Means, announced on Wednesday that they are investigating "whether sufficient grounds exist to draft articles of impeachment against President Biden for consideration by the full House," Fox News reports. In a letter to White House Counsel Edward Siskel notifying him of the additional area of their investigations, Comer and Jordan said: "In light of an official statement from the White House that President Biden was aware in advance that his son, Hunter Biden, would knowingly defy two congressional subpoenas, we are compelled to examine as part of our impeachment inquiry whether the President engaged in a conspiracy to obstruct a proceeding of Congress."Hunter Biden was scheduled to appear on Dec. 13 before the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees, and instead, held an impromptu press conference on Capitol Hill, where he claimed: "My father was not financially involved ion my business. Not as a practicing lawyer. Not as a board member of Burisma. Not in my partnership with a Chinese private businessman. Not in my investments at home nor abroad, and certainly not as an artist."Hunter instead said that he would "only testify in a public forum, a demand for special treatment that the Committees had previously rejected.""Although Mr. Biden professed an interest in answering questions about his actions, he departed the Capitol grounds without taking any questions. The committees subsequently recorded Mr. Biden’s non-appearance at his deposition," they continued.

First Amendment claim struck down in Project Veritas case focused on diary of Biden’s daughter - Criminal prosecutors may soon get to see over 900 documents pertaining to the alleged theft of a diary belonging to President Joe Biden’s daughter after a judge rejected the conservative group Project Veritas’ First Amendment claim.Attorney Jeffrey Lichtman said on behalf of the nonprofit Monday that attorneys are considering appealing last Thursday’s ruling by U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan. In the written decision, the judge said the documents can be given to investigators by Jan. 5.The documents were produced from raids that were authorized in November 2021. Electronic devices were also seized from the residences of three members of Project Veritas, including two mobile phones from the home of James O’Keefe, the group’s since-fired founder.Project Veritas, founded in 2010, identifies itself as a news organization. It is best known for conducting hidden camera stings that have embarrassed news outlets, labor organizations and Democratic politicians.In written arguments, lawyers for Project Veritas and O’Keefe said the government’s investigation “seems undertaken not to vindicate any real interests of justice, but rather to stifle the press from investigating the President’s family.”“It is impossible to imagine the government investigating an abandoned diary (or perhaps the other belongings left behind with it), had the diary not been written by someone with the last name ‘Biden,’” they added.The judge rejected the First Amendment arguments, saying in the ruling that they were “inconsistent with Supreme Court precedent.” She also noted that Project Veritas could not claim it was protecting the identity of a confidential source from public disclosure after two individuals publicly pleaded guilty in the case.She was referencing the August 2022 guilty pleas of Aimee Harris and Robert Kurlander to conspiracy to commit interstate transportation of stolen property. Both await sentencing.The pleas came two years after Harris and Kurlander — two Florida residents who are not employed by Project Veritas — discovered that Ashley Biden, the president’s daughter, had stored items including a diary at a friend’s Delray Beach, Florida, house.They said they initially hoped to sell some of the stolen property to then-President Donald Trump’s campaign, but a representative turned them down and told them to take the material to the FBI, prosecutors say.Eventually, Project Veritas paid the pair $20,000 apiece to deliver the diary containing “highly personal entries,” a digital storage card with private family photos, tax documents, clothes and luggage to New York, prosecutors said.

House Ethics panel opens investigation into Florida Democrat -- The House Ethics Committee announced Wednesday that it has opened an investigative subcommittee into Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) over potential campaign finance and other violations of House rules. In a release, the committee said that the subpanel will determine whether Cherfilus-McCormick “may have violated campaign finance laws and regulations in connection with her 2022 special election and/or 2022 re-election campaigns; failed to properly disclose required information on statements required to be filed with the House; and/or accepted voluntary services for official work from an individual not employed in her congressional office.” The committee did not elaborate further on the allegations, as it typically does not disclose details about the substance of allegations against members until it completes investigations. Cherfilus-McCormick’s office also did not elaborate on the allegations. “As the Ethics Committee said in its statement, the mere fact of establishing an investigative subcommittee does not itself indicate that any violation occurred. Regardless, the Congresswoman takes these matters seriously and is working to resolve them,” a spokesperson for Cherfilus-McCormick told The Hill. The House Ethics Committee voted to further investigate matters relating to Cherfilus-McCormick after receiving a referral from the Office of Congressional Ethics in September. Cherfilus-McCormick joined the House in 2022 after winning a special election for the southern Florida district to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.). She was elected to a full term later that year.

House Republicans may have just given their majority away for Christmas --Republicans gave Democrats an amazing Christmas present going into the new year. Thanks to Republican incompetence, it is possible that Democrats may end 2024 with Speaker of the House Hakeem Jefferies (D-N.Y.), as a direct result of bad Republican strategy and policy.House Republicans have done much this year to send some Christmas cheer across the aisle by exiling one member and letting their former leader quit in the middle of his term. Republicans have a slim majority and should have thought long and hard before giving away multiple seats. That political blunder might end up giving away the House Republican majority before the end of 2024. Republicans’ first present to Democrats this Christmas season was to give one seat of their slim majority for no good reason. Most think that Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) was on borrowed time as a member of the House of Representatives and was not going to be re-elected for another term anyway. Yet the party decided to toss away a seat early that likely will end up in Democrat hands as early as February. President Joe Biden won Santos’s district by eight points in 2020, so we can say with a degree of certainty that expelling Santos handed a seat over to the Democrats.The House has set a dangerous precedent by exiling Santos, making him only the sixth House member to ever be expelled and the first since the Civil War without a criminal conviction. On policy grounds, this will make politicized expulsions far easier in the future. Expelling members also imposes voter disenfranchisement by the House. The voters of a district ended up losing their duly elected member and will be represented by no one for months. On policy and political grounds, expelling Santos was a lump of coal for Republicans.Soon after Santos was booted, former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) gave Democrats a second holiday gift. He announced that he is quitting Congress for greener pastures with a future full of sugar plum consulting jobs and corporate boards full of expensive presents. Politico pointed out recently that “with George Santos (R-N.Y.) gone, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) planning to resign at the end of the year and Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) exiting soon after that, Speaker Mike Johnson will have little room to maneuver if he hopes to pass partisan bills once lawmakers come back in January.” Rep. Bill Johnson is retiring to take a position as a university president in Ohio, making it possible that Republicans end up with a one-seat majority at some point next year.There is one Democrat who is likely to leave Congress, but he would be smart to hang around to see if a few other Republicans decide to bail on Congress or decide to switch parties.“The way I add the numbers up, we could easily be down to a majority of one,” Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) told the New York Post. He worried that Democrats “are dangerous” right now. With a House majority, Democrats would have control over the White House, House of Representatives and U.S. Senate for long enough to make Congress cease oversight of the Biden administration, fully fund their woke agenda and push policies to keep Biden in power.Democrats get the joke. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) bragged that “slowly but surely, House Republicans are catastrophically mismanaging their own majority out of existence.” The consensus was that the 2024 fall election was going to be a tough one for House Republicans to defend. But Republicans seem to be engaging in pre-emptive surrender by putting their current majority at risk.All Democrats have to do is wait until a handful of Republicans fail to make it to a session of Congress because of illness or other reasons, then pull the trigger on a Motion to Vacate when Republicans are missing the votes to defend their majority. That could elevate Jefferies into the Speaker’s office, and the temporary Democratic majority could then change the rules, making it harder to vacate the chair.That may seem far-fetched, but who would have thought Republicans would give away three seats when they only have a four-seat majority?

Colorado GOP chair on Boebert district shift: ‘Don’t think it was the best move’ - Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williamson said it may not be the best move for Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) to switch congressional districts after deciding to avoid a tough rematch against Democrat Adam Frisch, a candidate she narrowly beat in the 2022 midterms. During a Thursday appearance on CNN, Williamson was asked if Coloradoans are “cool” with “someone who isn’t from their district representing them,” referring to Boebert’s Wednesday announcement saying that she will run to represent her state’s 4th Congressional District as opposed to the 3rd Congressional District where she resides. “From a party perspective, we certainly don’t think it was the best move,” Williamson said. “We felt that she was best suited for Congressional District 3 and that she was in the best position to win reelection and retain that for Republicans.” With shifting districts, Boebert, a staunch conservative, has a better chance at keeping her congressional seat while potentially opening up an opportunity to keep both seats in GOP hands in the upcoming election. Williamson said he thinks that the validity of Boebert’s decision will be answered over time, noting that Colorado voters will be the ultimate judge. Boebert’s 3rd Congressional District has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7. The 4th Congressional District, where she intends to run, is the most conservative in the state, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13. It is currently held by Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who will not seek reelection.

Greene says she was swatted while at home with family on Christmas -- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said someone reported a fake crime at her home Monday, the latest in a series of apparent swatting incidents that have targeted her. “I was just swatted. This is like the 8th time. On Christmas with my family here. My local police are the GREATEST and shouldn’t have to deal with this,” she said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. Greene added that she appreciates the local police and her family is in “joyous spirits” celebrating Christmas. A spokesperson for the police department in the city of Rome, Ga., where Greene’s house is located, said multiple calls were received through a crisis hotline in both Rome, N.Y., and Rome, Ga., requesting emergency services. They said the address claiming the need for the emergency services pinged to Greene’s address. “While en route to the address, personnel with the Rome (GA) Police Department coordinated with Greene’s security detail to ensure her safety as well as determine that there was in fact no emergency at the address,” the spokesperson said. Swatting incidents have occurred at the controversial Georgia Republican’s home since last year. One happened in August 2022 when a caller claimed a shooting was happening at Greene’s home, and another happened the next day when a caller hinted they may have shot their family.

Police investigating incidents involving Colorado justices after Trump removed from state’s ballot - — Police said Tuesday they are investigating incidents directed at Colorado Supreme Court justices and providing extra patrols around their homes in Denver following the court’s decision to remove former President Donald Trump from the state’s presidential primary ballot.The Denver Police Department declined in an email to provide details about its investigations, citing safety and privacy considerations and because they are ongoing.The department “is currently investigating incidents directed at Colorado Supreme Court justices and will continue working with our local, state and federal law enforcement partners to thoroughly investigate any reports of threats or harassment,” the email said.Officers responded to the home of one justice on Thursday evening, but police said it appeared to be a “hoax report.” That case is also still being investigated police said.The FBI said it is working with local law enforcement on the matter.“We will vigorously pursue investigations of any threat or use of violence committed by someone who uses extremist views to justify their actions regardless of motivation,” a spokesperson for the Denver’s FBI office, Vikki Migoya, said in a statement.In a 4-3 decision last week, Colorado’s highest court overturned a ruling from a district court judge who found that Trump incited an insurrection for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, but had said he could not be barred from the ballot because it was unclear that U.S. Constitution’s insurrection clause was intended to cover the presidency.The state’s highest court didn’t agree, siding with attorneys for six Colorado Republican and unaffiliated voters who argued that it was nonsensical to imagine that the framers of the amendment, fearful of former confederates returning to power, would bar them from low-level offices but not the highest one in the land. The court stayed its decision until Jan. 4, or until the U.S. Supreme Court rules on the case. Colorado officials say the issue must be settled by Jan. 5, the deadline for the state to print its presidential primary ballots.

Colorado secretary of state receives death threats: ‘I will not be intimidated’ -Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) said she received death threats in the wake of the lawsuit that was filed in her state that eventually led to former President Trump being kicked off the ballot in her state.“Within three weeks of the lawsuit being filed, I received 64 death threats. I stopped counting after that,” Griswold said on X Saturday, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “I will not be intimidated. Democracy and peace will triumph over tyranny and violence.”Griswold also linked to a HuffPost article from last week in which she discussed her fears about violence on behalf of the former president. In the article, she also noted that it wasn’t her that filed the lawsuit, but a watchdog organization named Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). Griswold recently praised her Maine counterpart, Shenna Bellows (D), for her decision to kick Trump off of the ballot in the Pine Tree State Thursday under the 14th Amendment.“I do think Secretary Bellows is brave and courageous,” Griswold said in an interview on MSNBC about the Maine secretary of state (D). “She is the first individual, by herself, having to make this decision.”On Thursday, Bellows said she had concluded that the former president “over the course of several months and culminating on January 6, 2021, used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power.” Bellows said on Friday that she has received threats in the wake of her decision to remove Trump from the ballot.“I was prepared for the possibility of threats, and I really appreciate law enforcement and the people around me who have been incredibly supportive of my safety and security,” Bellows said during an appearance on CNN. “My safety and security is important, so is the safety and security of everyone who works with me and we have received threatening communications.”

Marjorie Taylor Greene says daughters’ homes ‘swatted’ -- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) claimed that her two daughters were “swatted” Thursday — just days after she experienced what she estimated was her eighth swatting incident. Swatting refers to a large-scale response by law enforcement officials in response to false claims of an emergency, often at the homes of public officials. “Both my daughter’s houses just got swatted today. Big thanks to the police who responded! We appreciate you and support you!” Greene wrote Thursday afternoon in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “Whoever is doing this, you are going to get caught and it won’t be funny to you anymore,” Greene added, before tagging the FBI account. Greene did not provide more information about the incidents her daughters experienced. On Christmas Day, Greene reported she was swatted at her home in Rome, Ga., for what she estimated was the eighth time. “I was just swatted. This is like the 8th time. On Christmas with my family here. My local police are the GREATEST and shouldn’t have to deal with this,” she said in a post on X after the incident occurred.Greene’s home has been targeted in several reported swatting incidents in the last couple of years. In an incident in August 2022, a caller claimed a shooting occurred at Greene’s home and the next day, another caller suggested they possibly shot Greene’s family.Other public officials reported in recent days that they have been subjects of swatting incidents, including Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu (D).In June, the FBI launched a national database to track swatting incidents following a push from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who called the attacks “dangerous, disturbing and downright terrifying.”

Rash Of Swatting Targeting Conservatives Could Have Deadly Consequences - A growing trend of conservative politicians and thought leaders being targeted by 911 calls reporting fake emergencies, often causing armed officers or tactical teams to arrive at their homes, could lead to serious injury or even death, according to a recent victim. Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) told The Epoch Times that he was sitting down with his family on Christmas Day when he received a call from the local sheriff’s office notifying him that there had been a shooting inside his home and that police were en route. He immediately took the call as a threat against his family. “Someone was hoping that police might kill me or my family, that’s exactly what happens in these swatting cases,” Mr. Williams said. “These well-intentioned police come in heavy, thinking there is an urgent crisis and for someone not expecting that, it creates a lot of confusion.” He said it was stressful but that he hoped his actions on that day would help set an example for his children of how to deal with law enforcement when confronted with a tense situation.“I met the police outside with my hands open and then brought them inside the house where my wife and two children were, also with their hands open,” Mr. Williams said. “My goal was to make it easy for them.“After they walked through the house and were satisfied it was a false alarm, we sent them home with some Ziploc bags full of Christmas cookies."Police are working to identify the callers, but no arrests have been made.However, Mr. Williams is only the latest Republican to find himself the victim of “swatting,” as it has become known: the act of calling law enforcement and claiming that there's an emergency situation with the goal of causing tactical teams with weapons drawn to barge into the target's home.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said she was the target of a swatting attempt at her Georgia residence on Christmas morning. “I was just swatted,” Ms. Greene wrote in a Dec. 25 post on X, formerly known as Twitter. “This is like the 8th time. On Christmas with my family here.Several calls were made to a crisis hotline from multiple locations from a man who claimed to have shot and killed his girlfriend at Ms. Greene’s address. The caller claimed that he was going to kill himself next, according to a Rome Police Department spokesperson. Law enforcement officers were able to quickly recognize the address and verify that the call was a hoax after speaking with the congresswoman’s security detail and before dispatching officers or tactical teams to the house. However, in past incidents, Ms. Greene wasn’t as fortunate. Police have responded to prior calls from people claiming that shots had been fired outside of her residence. Other phony emergency calls included claims that dead bodies were found in various areas of the congresswoman’s home.

Supreme Court won’t decide for now whether Trump is immune from prosecution - The Supreme Court has denied special counsel Jack Smith’s request for urgent consideration of Donald Trump’s claim that he’s immune from prosecution for his bid to subvert the 2020 election.The decision announced Friday is a blow to Smith’s hopes to keep Trump’s March 4, 2024 trial on track, though it’s unclear how damaging it is to the timeline.A federal appeals court is simultaneously racing to consider the issue and could send the matter right back to the Supreme Court early in the new year. Arguments at the appeals court are set for Jan. 9. If that court swiftly rejects Trump’s immunity claim, the Supreme Court could be facing the same issue in just a few weeks. That would tee up an even more consequential high court showdown between Smith and Trump by mid- to late-January. Smith, however, was hoping to leapfrog the appeals court and take the immunity question directly to the Supreme Court now. The justices denied his request in a terse, one-line order and gave no explanation for declining to weigh in now. None of the justices recorded any dissent from the decision.Smith argued in his petition to the court that the speedy resolution of Trump’s claim of presidential immunity is of urgent national interest.A spokesperson for the special prosecutor declined to comment on the high court’s action.Trump reacted quickly to the decision by seeking to fundraise off of it.“The Supreme Court just denied the Biden prosecutor’s emergency request to rob me of my right to presidential immunity…but the battle is not over,” Trump said in an email asking for donations to a political action committee connected to his 2024 presidential campaign.About an hour later, the former president issued a statement hailing the court’s decision.“The Supreme Court has unanimously rejected Deranged Jack Smith’s desperate attempt to short circuit our Great Constitution,” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. “Crooked Joe Biden and his henchmen waited three years to bring this sham case, and now they have tried and failed to rush this Witch Hunt through the courts. Of course I am entitled to Presidential Immunity. I was President, it was my right and duty to investigate, and speak on, the rigged and stolen 2020 Presidential Election.”While Trump asserted the ruling Friday was unanimous, the court did not disclose its vote on the matter.But, for now, Trump’s claims of immunity will remain before a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Trump: ‘May they rot in Hell. Merry Christmas’ -Former President Trump in an unusual Christmas message on Truth Social called for various people he sees as “looking to destroy” the nation to “rot in Hell.” It was one of several Christmas messages on the former president’s preferred social media platform going after President Biden, special counsel Jack Smith and other political opponents throughout Monday. The opponents included world leaders and people in favor of the use of electric cars. “Merry Christmas to all, including Crooked Joe Biden’s ONLY HOPE, Deranged Jack Smith,” Trump began in a Truth Social post at 2:38 p.m. Trump frequently describes Smith, who is prosecuting Trump over his actions connected to the 2020 election and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, as deranged. The Supreme Court just Friday said it would not immediately consider a request by Smith to make a determination on Trump’s insistence he is immune from prosecution because he was taking presidential actions at the time. “Included also are World Leaders, both good and bad, but none of which are as evil and ‘sick’ as the THUGS we have inside our Country who, with their Open Borders, INFLATION, Afghanistan Surrender, Green New Scam, High Taxes, No Energy Independence, Woke Military, Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Iran, All Electric Car Lunacy, and so much more, are looking to destroy our once great USA. MAY THEY ROT IN HELL. AGAIN, MERRY CHRISTMAS!” the former president concluded. Trump remains the favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination. He has a 54 percent lead in the aggregation of polls kept by Decision Desk and The Hill.Trump is also looking strong in a one-on-one match-up against Biden. The Decision Desk-The Hill aggregation of polls shows Trump with a 1.9 percent lead.

Trump lashes out at ‘loser’ Rep. Debbie Dingell in swirling feud --Former President Trump hit back at Rep. Debbie Dingell’s (D-Mich.) criticism of his “rot in Hell” Christmas message, calling her a “loser” in the latest in a string of insults aimed at the lawmaker and her family.“Debbie Dingell of Michigan is a LOSER, who is helping Crooked Joe Biden, and his Merry Band of Thugs, to DESTROY our Country with his INSANE Open Borders Policy, Inflation, High Cost Energy, Green New Scam, HORRIBLE WORLD DIPLOMACY, Afghanistan Catastrophe, All Electric Cars, and so much else,” Trump wrote Tuesday in a Truth Social post.Trump’s comments came hours after Dingell appeared on CNN and tore into the former president’s message on Christmas Day, when he called for various people he sees as “looking to destroy” the country to “rot in Hell.” Asked on CNN if things are getting worse in terms of threats against public servants, Dingell said, “They’re deteriorating and they’re getting worse…Quite frankly, I’m going to tell you that I think it was one of the most pathetic Christmas greetings I’ve heard when a former president of the United States, who wants to return, tells people on Christmas Day that they ‘can rot in hell.’” Trump’s Christmas Day message on social media targeted public figures, including world leaders and special counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing the Justice Department’s investigation into the former president’s actions surrounding the 2020 election and the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. “Merry Christmas to all, including Crooked Joe Biden’s ONLY HOPE, Deranged Jack Smith,” Trump wrote in the post, adding, “Included also are World Leaders, both good and bad, but none of which are as evil and ‘sick’ as the THUGS we have inside our Country who, with their Open Borders, INFLATION, Afghanistan Surrender, Green New Scam, High Taxes, No Energy Independence, Woke Military, Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Iran, All Electric Car Lunacy, and so much more, are looking to destroy our once great USA. MAY THEY ROT IN HELL. AGAIN, MERRY CHRISTMAS!”

Jack Smith Wants To Stop Trump From Introducing Jan. 6 Security Failures Into Evidence -- Special Counsel Jack Smith has asked a federal judge to stop former President Trump from introducing evidence of selective prosecution and security failures surrounding the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Smith also wants to stop Trump from arguing that his actions were protected by the First Amendment, writing in a Wednesday filing that Trump has tried "to inject into this case partisan political attacks and irrelevant and prejudicial issues that have no place in a jury trial," Just the News reports.Senior Assistant Special Counsel Molly Gaston wrote in the filing that while the court can disregard Trump's claims, the jury may not."To ensure that the jury remains focused on its fact-finding duty and applies the law as instructed by the Court, the defendant’s improper evidence and argument should be excluded," she wrote."Throughout this litigation, and in his public comments, the defendant has sought to blame others for the attack on the Capitol for which he is responsible, including law enforcement, military forces, unidentified secret agents, and foreign influence," the filing continues. "The defendant should be precluded from introducing within the courtroom the disinformation he has propagated outside of it."Trump, meanwhile, said on Truth Social that he was "doing my duty as President to expose and further investigate a Rigged and Stolen Election," adding that he is "entitled to IMMUNITY."

Special counsel Jack Smith rebuffs Trump’s immunity claim in new filing - Special Counsel for the Department of Justice Jack Smith rebuffed former President Trump’s claim that he should get immunity in Smith’s case related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election in a Saturday filing. The former president’s legal team has said that Trump should be immune from prosecution in the case because the conduct noted in the indictment happened while he was in office. That argument was previously rejected by Judge Tanya Chutkan, the judge originally overseeing the case. The former president appealed to the District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals. “An individual who has served as President but is no longer in office may face investigation, indictment, trial, and, if convicted, punishment for conduct committed during the Presidency,” the filing read. “The President stands alone in the constitutional firmament, but legal principles and historical evidence establish that, once out of office, a former President may face federal criminal prosecution like any other citizen.” Last week, the former president went after Smith in Christmas Eve posts on Truth Social. In one post, he said he is “fully entitled” to total presidential immunity when it comes to the charges he faces in Smith’s case related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election. He also doubled down on his claims that Smith is working on President Biden’s behalf.

Maine becomes 2nd state to disqualify Trump from ballot -- Maine’s secretary of state said Thursday that former President Trump was ineligible to be on the state’s primary ballot under the 14th Amendment, becoming the second state to take such action.Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, said she had concluded that Trump “over the course of several months and culminating on January 6, 2021, used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power.”In the 34-page decision, she also concluded that Trump “was aware of the likelihood for violence and at least initially supported its use given he both encouraged it with incendiary rhetoric and took no timely action to stop it.”“Mr. Trump’s occasional requests that rioters be peaceful and support law enforcement do not immunize his actions,” she said. “A brief call to obey the law does not erase conduct over the course of months, culminating in his speech on the Ellipse. The weight of the evidence makes clear that Mr. Trump was aware of the tinder laid by his multi-month effort to delegitimize a democratic election, and then chose to light a match.”The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump should be barred from its primary ballot for the same reasons last week. An appeal to that case is expected to be heard by the Supreme Court.The Maine decision marks the first time a state official has removed a presidential candidate via the 14th Amendment, as the Colorado decision was made by a court.“I do not reach this conclusion lightly. Democracy is sacred,” Bellows said.“I am mindful that no Secretary of State has ever deprived a presidential candidate of ballot access based on Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment,” she wrote. “I am also mindful, however, that no presidential candidate has ever before engaged in insurrection.”“The oath I swore to uphold the Constitution comes first above all, and my duty under Maine’s election laws, when presented with a Section 336 challenge, is to ensure that candidates who appear on the primary ballot are qualified for the office they seek,” she continued.The Trump campaign denounced the decision Thursday, attacking Bellows as a “virulent leftist and a hyper-partisan Biden-supporting Democrat.”“We are witnessing, in real-time, the attempted theft of an election and the disenfranchisement of the American voter,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said. “Make no mistake, these partisan election interference efforts are a hostile assault on American democracy.”

Trump demands recusal of Maine secretary of state in 14th Amendment determination Former President Trump on Wednesday demanded the Maine secretary of state recuse herself from her upcoming decision on the former president’s ballot eligibility under the 14th Amendment, citing her past statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Unlike other states, where plaintiffs have sued over Trump’s eligibility in court, Maine’s system first allows the secretary of state to weigh in. Challengers can then appeal in state court. In response to three petitions challenging Trump’s ballot eligibility, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, is set to issue a decision in the coming days. On Wednesday, Trump’s lawyers wrote Bellows a letter demanding she disqualify herself over three tweets she previously issued referencing Jan. 6, including those in which she described the attack as an insurrection. The 14th Amendment prohibits someone from holding “any office … under the United States” if they “engaged in insurrection” after taking an oath to support the Constitution. “Using similar language, the Challengers have claimed that the events of January 6, 2021, constituted a violent insurrection and that President Trump somehow poses a danger from which Maine voters must be protected. Thus, the Secretary has already passed judgment on the Challengers’ core assertions,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in the letter. Bellows’s spokesperson said the secretary is not commenting while the matter is pending. The letter cites two social media posts Bellows issued the day Trump was acquitted in his second impeachment trial, which concerned the Capitol riot. “The Jan 6 insurrection was an unlawful attempt to overthrow the results of a free and fair election. Today 57 Senators including King & Collins found Trump guilty. That’s short of impeachment but nevertheless an indictment. The insurrectionists failed, and democracy prevailed,” Bellows wrote on Twitter, the platform now known as X. The letter also takes aim at a post Bellows issued on the one-year anniversary of Jan. 6, in which she reposted a news report highlighting Bellows’s efforts to protect election workers.

Comer ‘not surprised’ by Maine ballot ruling on Trump, expects more states to follow -Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), chair of the House Oversight Committee, said Thursday he was not surprised Maine’s secretary of state ruled that former President Trump cannot appear on the primary ballot in 2024. In an interview on Fox News with Jason Chaffetz, Comer characterized the ruling as a political one and said he expects other blue states to “pull stunts like this” too. “Well, I’m not surprised. I fear we’re going to see this happen in more states,” Comer said when asked for his reaction to the Maine decision. Comer added that, being in his home state for the Christmas holiday, he’s talked to regular voters, and he claimed “They think it’s absurd what the Democrats are trying to do in blue states in banning President Trump from the ballot.” “I mean, this is clearly election interference,” Comer added, repeating a frequent GOP talking point. Comer said he thought the Maine secretary of state’s decision to rule Trump ineligible to appear on the state’s primary ballot was an effort to distract from the Democrats’ unpopular most-likely candidate in 2024. “So I think that the Democrats are trying to do everything they can, in a last-ditch effort to disrupt the Republican momentum right now heading into the presidential election. I think this is another example of that,” Comer said. “And I hate to say it, Jason, but I fear we’re gonna see more blue states pull stunts like this.” Comer’s comments come after Maine’s Democratic secretary of state, Shenna Bellows, concluded Trump was ineligible for office under the “insurrection clause” of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

DeSantis says Maine Trump decision ‘opens up Pandora’s box’ | Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis blasted the decision to keep former President Trump off the ballot in Maine in 2024 while urging Republicans to focus more on Democrats’ shortcomings rather than on Trump’s legal issues. “The idea that one bureaucrat in an executive position can simply unilaterally disqualify someone from office, that turns on its head every notion of constitutional due process that this country has always abided by for over 200 years,” DeSantis said in a Thursday interview on Fox News with Jason Chaffetz. “It opens up Pandora’s Box,” DeSantis added, suggesting Republican secretaries of state could then try to disqualify President Biden over the so-called “massive invasion” of migrants at the southern border. DeSantis, a 2024 GOP candidate for president, said he thinks the Supreme Court will ultimately overturn the ruling. Still, he said, Trump’s legal troubles will remain a focus of much media coverage. “I don’t think that this ultimately will be legally sustained by the US Supreme Court. But I do think that this is going to be a constant throughout the election year, where there’s going to be different parts of these legal cases that are going to be front and center,” DeSantis said. “I think that we win when we hold Biden accountable and talk about the issues that matter to the American people,” DeSantis continued. “So I think the Democrats, they want the election to be about all these other issues. They do not want to face accountability for their failed policies.” DeSantis responded to the Maine ruling shortly after news broke Thursday night. Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows ruled that Trump, the GOP frontrunner in the 2024 race, is ineligible to appear on the primary ballot in the state, citing the 14th Amendment’s “insurrection clause” and Trump’s role in the events leading up to and on Jan. 6, 2021. Bellows, a Democrat, said she had concluded that Trump “over the course of several months and culminating on January 6, 2021, used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power.” The decision made Maine the second state to take such action after Colorado’s Supreme Court ruled Trump was ineligible to appear on its primary ballot.

Sen. Collins: Maine secretary of state’s decision to bar Trump from ballot ‘should be overturned’ - Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) criticized the Maine secretary of state’s decision to remove former President Trump from the Maine primary ballot Thursday, arguing that thoughts on the Jan. 6 Capitol riots should be between the voter and the ballot box.“Maine voters should decide who wins the election — not a Secretary of State chosen by the Legislature,” Collins wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “The Secretary of State’s decision would deny thousands of Mainers the opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice, and it should be overturned.”Maine Secretary of State Shanna Bellows (D) decided Trump’s Jan. 6 conduct violated the 14th Amendment’s “insurrection clause,” which prevents those who assist in rebellions against the country from holding office.The landmark decision makes Maine the second state to remove Trump from their primary ballot, after the Colorado Supreme Court ruled the same last week.The 14th Amendment bars those who have “engaged in insurrection” from holding office. Bellows and the Colorado court said Trump’s actions surrounding the Jan. 6 Capitol riots count under that clause. Bellows said Trump “used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters” on Jan. 6 and “was aware of the likelihood for violence and at least initially supported its use given he both encouraged it with incendiary rhetoric and took no timely action to stop it.”

After Maine, Matt Taibbi Asks 'Is There Any Way This Ends Well?' --Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows decided Thursday to remove Donald Trump from the state’s presidential ballot.Jared Golden, a Democratic congressman from Lewiston who voted to impeach Trump over the January 6th riots, quickly issued a statement:We are a nation of laws, therefore until he is actually found guilty of the crime of insurrection, he should be allowed on the ballot.Eight years ago this month, the big story in the presidential race was whether or not Trump was out of line in saying Hillary Clinton got “schlonged” in the 2008 primary.A Washington Post “linguistic investigation” quoted Steven Pinker in saying that “given Trump’s history of vulgarity… it’s entirely possible that he had created a sexist term for ‘defeat,’” but the paper concluded that Trump’s problem was that “he’s a gentile who, linguistically, may have wandered too far from home.”Normally campaign season is a period of heightened engagement, as people scour the Internet to research even the most inane questions, knowing that at the end of the process, they get to cast votes on them. It’s why news companies tend to fatten up in election years, like Grizzlies during salmon runs.People are absorbed by dramas in which they feel themselves to be participants.This year the public is being forced to research questions in which they have no say. We all understand now that there’s a disqualification clause in the 14th Amendment. We also understand that this clause seems to have been written with deliberate vagueness. I’m no lawyer, but I doubt the 14th Amendment was designed to empower unelected state officials to unilaterally strike major party frontrunners from the presidential ballot.If it was, that’s a shock. I must have missed that in AP Insane Legal Loopholes class.Is there any way this ends well? It feels harder and harder to imagine.

DeSantis says he will fire special counsel Jack Smith on ‘day one’ -Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said in a Thursday interview that, if elected president, he would fire special counsel Jack Smith, who brought two indictments against former President Trump, on “day one” of his hypothetical term in office.DeSantis made the case for why he was the best candidate to win the GOP nomination in 2024 in a Fox News interview with Jason Chaffetz. After referencing Trump’s legal battles in the upcoming year, DeSantis said he would be able to keep focused on holding people accountable, including Smith. “I think that a guy like me as the nominee will be able to keep the focus on Biden, keep the focus on the Democrats’ failures,” DeSantis said, “but then, more importantly, after you win the election, start holding these people accountable, who have weaponized the legal system to go after their political enemies.”“And that starts with day one, firing somebody like Jack Smith. That goes to dealing with people who are violating constitutional rights at the state and local government area,” he added.DeSantis’s remarks echo much of the sentiment in Trumps remarks, which often focus on the so-called “weaponization” of the Justice Department and holding accountable those responsible for some of Trump’s legal troubles. In pledging to fire Smith, DeSantis further aligns himself with some of Trump’s campaign promises.Smith brought two cases against Trump — one for his efforts to derail the transfer of power and remain in office after losing the 2020 presidential election, and another for alleged willful retention of national security information and refusing to comply with requests to return the documents to the federal government. There is a slim chance that both cases will have concluded by the time voters head to the polls on election day next November.

Haley says she’d pardon Trump as president -- Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said on Thursday that, if elected president, she would pardon former President Trump, arguing it would be “in the best interest of the country.” “I would pardon Trump,” Haley said at a campaign event, according to a video captured by NBC News. “If he is found guilty, a leader needs to think about what’s in the best interest of the country,” Haley said. “What’s in the best interest of the country is not to have an 80-year-old man sitting in jail, that continues to divide our country.” “What’s in the best interest of the country would be to pardon him, so that we can move on as a country and no longer talk about him,” she added. Haley previously said she would be “inclined” to pardon the former president, also the GOP frontrunner in the presidential race in 2024, if he were convicted of a crime, and if she were elected president. Haley has recently enjoyed a bump in her polling numbers, but still, former President Trump leads the pack of GOP candidates by more than 50 points. According to the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill national polling average of GOP primary polls, Trump has 63.1 percent support, Haley has 10.8 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has 10.6 percent. Trump faces four criminal cases, for a total of 91 criminal counts. Special counsel Jack Smith brought two federal indictments against Trump, for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and for alleged willful retention of national defense information. He faces additional charges in a New York case involving hush-money payments to an adult film star and a Georgia criminal RICO case related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Haley takes flak for blaming Civil War gaffe on ‘plant’ -Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is facing heat from a slew of political strategists and commentators after deflecting the blame for a recent gaffe about the Civil War.In the wake of criticism over Haley’s remarks in which she failed to mention slavery as the cause of the Civil War, the former South Carolina governor suggested the voter who asked her the question was a “Democrat Plant.”“Well, don’t come with an easy question, right? I mean, I think the cause of the Civil War was basically how government was going to run, the freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do,” Haley responded to the New Hampshire voter, who pressed her over the cause of the Civil War.The GOP hopeful added it “always” comes down to the role of government, telling the crowd, “We need to have capitalism, we need to have economic freedom.”The voter then said it was “astonishing” that she did not mention slavery while discussing the Civil War. “What do you want me to say about slavery?” she asked.“You answered my question. Thank you,” the voter responded. Later on Thursday morning, Haley sought to clean up the remarks while in a New Hampshire radio interview.“Of course the Civil War was about slavery,” Haley said Thursday. “We k now that. That’s the easy part of it. What I was saying was what does it mean to us today? What it means to us today is about freedom. That’s what that was all about,” adding later she believes the voter was a “Democrat plant.”

Cornel West threatens to peel off Arab American voters over Israel in Michigan - — Cornel West is making a bold play for a key Biden constituency in a crucial swing state, on an issue that’s bitterly divided the Democratic Party. The independent candidate campaigned in Michigan this week to offer Arab American voters angry over the Israel-Hamas conflict a new political home in 2024. In Dearborn, a majority Arab American suburb of Detroit, West hosted several roundtable meetings with donors, local political organizers and Muslim community leaders, who wanted to hear West’s positions on Gaza. The day on the campaign trail began with West promising he would ask the International Criminal Court to investigate potential war crimes committed by the Israel Defense Forces in a press release. During multiple roundtable discussions, the university professor called Israel an “apartheid state.” And West accused the U.S. government of supporting a “genocide” of the Palestinian people. “I don’t call it the Palestinian problem, or the Palestinian question,” West said at a luncheon with Arab American donors and business leaders in Dearborn. “It’s a catastrophe.” Losing just a fraction of Michigan voters who supported President Joe Biden in 2020 could scramble the presidential election in 2024. Biden won the state narrowly last cycle — and the margin was even closer when Donald Trump took it in 2016. And the Israel-Hamas war is opening a channel for West to collect unsatisfied voters. Biden has spoken about the horrors of the conflict, but even Vice President Kamala Harris is lobbying the president to speak more sympathetically about the Palestinians. The president’s ability to emotionally connect, especially during tragedy, with voters has long been one of his political strengths. But in Michigan, it’s turning into a weakness. “[Biden] cries for a person dying in a hospital or [who has] a cancer. He cannot stop himself from crying. And how come 18,000 people died, mostly children and women, and he doesn’t want to see it or hear about it?” said Abdallah Sheik, a small business owner in Detroit who is now backing West. “And we are the ones who helped elect him here.” Sheik voted for Biden in 2020 and helped turn out voters in Detroit with an Arab American and Muslim American-focused PAC, driving elderly people to the polls and promoting the importance of voting. “After we saw Hillary Clinton lost, we step[ped] up [our] game,” Sheik said in an interview with POLITICO. “But I think we [made] a mistake.” Sheik attended a fundraising luncheon for West in Dearborn, where the activist and scholar also hosted several roundtable events with local political organizers and Muslim community leaders. The focus of all of the events was the Israel-Hamas conflict, where West drew contrast between his views and the Biden administration. “In Michigan, we voted for him last time, more than 140,000 Arab and Muslim people voted for him. This time, he will get zilch,” said Ali Fattom, a retired university professor, who is also now backing West. “I voted for him, OK. I voted for Obama. But this time, he’s not my man,” he said, of Biden. Trump won Michigan by less than one percentage point in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, and Biden narrowly won back the state in 2020, in part by increasing Democratic turnout. Recent battleground state polling from CNN shows West garnering 6 percent support in a match-up against Biden, Trump and fellow independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who received 20 percent support in the same survey. Even single-digit support for third-party candidates in 2024 — especially in Michigan — could have an outsize impact on the winner in the presidential election.

Fetterman on Carville’s Biden criticisms: ‘Shut the f‑‑‑ up’ - Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) blasted Democratic strategist James Carville, saying he should “shut the f‑‑‑ up” on criticisms regarding President Biden and his odds in the 2024 presidential race.In a new interview with Politico, Fetterman responded to a question about Biden’s reelection campaign by slamming Carville unprompted, saying he would use the interview as “another opportunity to tell James Carville to shut the f‑‑‑ up.”“Like I said, my man hasn’t been relevant since grunge was a thing. And I don’t know why he believes it’s helpful to say these kinds of things about an incredibly difficult circumstance with an incredibly strong and decent and excellent president. I’ll never understand that,” Fetterman added.Earlier this year, Carville warned Democrats that Biden could lose to former President Trump in 2024.Carville, a political consultant to former President Clinton, has been critical of the push by Democrats to reelect Biden despite concerns from voters that he is too old for the job.Fetterman added that Carville’s criticisms weren’t “helpful.”There has been growing frustration among Biden’s camp about recent polls showing him trailing Trump despite gains in the economy.

BankThink: It's time to deliver on the promise of the CFPB's open banking rule | American Banker --In July 2010, Congress tucked a small provision into the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Act, imposing a new mandate on firms that provide financial services to consumers. The mandate requires financial institutions to provide consumers electronic access to their banking account data. The law, called "Section 1033" of the mammoth bill, also gave the newly created Consumer Financial Protection Bureau the authority to issue a rule implementing that mandate. More than thirteen years later, the CFPB finally released its proposed rule.The proposed rule offers a solid foundation, yet its impact is limited. The original statute's wording is expansive, requiring all consumer financial services firms to provide consumers with access to their data, except those explicitly exempted. However, the recent draft of the rule is restricted in scope, applying only to credit cards, checking accounts and digital wallets. To truly align with the statute's broad intent, the CFPB should consider broadening the rule's reach, including entities like payroll providers, Electronic Benefits Transfer accounts and billing companies. Greater data coverage would benefit more consumers and fulfill Congress' original objectives.Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act received little attention when President Obama signed it into law along with the rest of the sweeping bill. The creation of the CFPB, the imposition of caps on debit interchange for large banks and the remaking of the mortgage industry overshadowed it. Comprehensive summaries of Dodd-Frank from major law firms and even Senate Democrats did not mention it. How the language even made it into law was mysterious. The consumer fintech industry, as it exists today, did not then exist. Products on which hundreds of millions of people now rely, including Venmo, Square Cash, Propel, Earnin and Chime, had yet to launch. Yet, Section 1033 was as far-reaching as anything else in the bill. By 2010, it was clear that technology could eliminate tedious data entry and reconciliation for the banking public. Intuithad acquired Mint, an early fintech pioneer, and had begun enabling consumers and small businesses to track transactions automatically. Consumers and small businesses that provided Intuit with account credentials for banking and wealth management accounts could reconcile their bank accounts and calculate their tax obligations without manually entering transaction details.Thirteen years after the passage of Section 1033, American consumers deserve more than the ability to delegate access to electronic data related to their deposit accounts, credit cards and electronic wallets. The market has already delivered those benefits.

BankThink: Big banks are afraid of open banking. That's a good thing. | American Banker - In the digital era, it should be easy for consumers to switch bank accounts to take advantage of higher interest rates. By now, we should also have powerful artificial intelligence assistants to help us find the best credit cards and loans. Instead, over 90 million Americans have never switched bank accounts. And more than half of all homebuyers get only one mortgage quote. A big reason why is that big banks have worked to lock in consumers, including by making it harder to access and transfer our financial data. As a result, consumers pay tens of billions of dollars more each year. Fortunately, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is finally taking steps to move us toward a world of open banking. Banks are scared, but maybe that's not such a bad thing.Small-business owners like my father, an electrician who has a few employees, can't lock in customers. They also don't get government bailouts if they fail. Competition keeps them up at night. That makes them improve their services and offer lower prices.Big banks are different. Unlike in most other industries, it is especially hard to start up a bank because the federal government almost never approves new bank charters. And since everyone knows our government will step in if big banks mess up, they receive a subsidy that lowers their costs of doing business. As a result, many customers unfairly believe their money is safer in big banks. Big banks can sleep soundly knowing most of their customers are functionally locked in.A decade ago, as digital technologies took off, big banks began to fear stiffer competition. Not only were some technology startups trying to offer similar services as banks, but others were seeking to leverage artificial intelligence to help consumers navigate a bewildering consumer financial marketplace. Many early tech entrepreneurs made it clear their goal was "breaking banks." At the time, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of the largest U.S. bank, warned shareholders: "Silicon Valley is coming."Banks' early playbook was to block third-party digital helpers from access to user accounts, both by making it technologically more difficult and by threatening lawsuits. Without access to consumers' data, it would be hard for competing companies to figure out which credit card, mortgage or savings account fits best.Those early moves slowed the challengers down, and because regulators failed to intervenebanks had plenty of time to develop their own copycat innovations or purchase emerging competitors. Banks also began working together to take over the digital architecture that startups had begun building. For example, to meet the threat of Venmo, which significantly lowered the costs of transferring money, seven of the largest banks created an alternative,Zelle. More alarmingly, as consumers persisted in using third-party fintechs for help in managing their money and accessing accounts, eleven big banks — including the likes of Bank of America, PNC, and JPMorgan Chase — acquired Akoya. Akoya provides an interface between banks and third-party digital helpers — a service that had previously been assumed by independent startups. Some of the banks that owned Akoya then began to inform competing, smaller industry players that if their customers wanted to continue to share financial data, they would be required to use Akoya's services or be blocked.Realizing that a voluntary system of data sharing was no longer tenable, the CFPB recently took long overdue steps to make it easier for people to break up with their bank. It has proposed new rules that would require banks to let consumers take their account data with them when they move — known as data portability. It would also force banks to allow third-party digital access to accounts when customers request such access.Similar laws have worked elsewhere. Cellphone carriers used to be hard to leave because the carrier had control over the phone number. After new laws required companies to let people take their phone number with them, many people switched and saved considerably. A law requiring stores to make their price and product information available in machine-readable form so that digital intermediaries could better inform consumers was found to overall lower prices 4% to 5% — and not just for those accessing the information. As expected, investing in competition pays off for consumers.

BankThink: The rise in account closures reveals banks must rethink their processes | American Banker - Marcia Tal - There are a few reasons for a recent spike in bank account closures, according to the recent American Banker article "Rushed anti-money-laundering calls backfire. Can AI help?" Penny Crosman writes, "One is a heavy reliance on AML software to monitor transactions overseen by decision-makers who don't know individual customers. Another is outdated rules used to determine which transactions are suspicious. A third is a set of incentives that push banks to rush and not take the time to understand individual cases."It's true that algorithms alert financial institutions to transactions that appear suspicious. Thomson Reuters found the number of suspicious activity reports (SARs) filed by banks surged by 50% in just two years. Rather than investigate the flags, however, there's a growing tendency to close accounts and shut customers out. Are banks trapped in a broken model with no alternative but to prioritize efficiency at the expense of their customers? The reality is much more nuanced. Certainly, the existing AI transaction monitoring model is flawed, but it is only part of the puzzle. Financial institutions have options — if they take the time to explore them. In the recent American Banker article, a former AML executive at a large bank says banks' emphasis on efficiency has shut customers out of the process. In a risk/reward trade-off, we're led to believe it's too expensive to include customer input and losing a "minuscule" number of customers is preferable to the inevitable "regulatory headaches." The problem with this logic is that when you make a mistake, you not only lose the account, but you may also lose that customer relationship forever. Even if it's a small subset, there is an increased risk that these customers will complain to regulators about their accounts being closed. There are regulatory requirements to report and crack down on SARs, as well as regulatory requirements to monitor customer outcomes — and they need to coexist. These issues impact one another but are often approached in silos. Syncing transaction data requires a complex interplay of software and systems, yet customer input must become a source of data in this decision-making process. Customer voices are a business's most valuable asset. Each complaint or inquiry can be unpacked for value, as a data source rich with insights. In fact, here's where AI can be really useful. Cases with 100% SARs certainty can be delegated to AI, whereas cases with less certainty should incorporate some human involvement.Building processes that take customer input into account is not only vital to humanizing the banking system, it's an opportunity to improve business outcomes. The human impacts of SAR processes gone wrong were captured by the New York Times in a recent examination of over 500 cases of customers being dropped by their banks. Small businesses can't make payroll, credit scores take a hit, people can't pay their bills on time — it's all very messy. If this problem impacts customers in such a big way, it's worth diving into, and there's no quick fix. Dedicated cross-functional teams can test, refine and release new approaches focused on understanding the when, where, what and how.Companies must venture down a funnel where each new layer of doubt is addressed by data and intelligence. It's imperative that companies go through their processes, tear them apart and understand the data to see where the errors are occurring. Only then, with a grasp of where improvements are needed, can solutions become clearer. Solving the problem of sudden account closures will require a refined data-driven process of how everything comes together and where it's going wrong. Indeed, the nuance is always the opportunity.

Banking-as-a-service banks support call for fairer exams -- Banking-as-a-service institutions are applauding legislators' calls for fairer exams and increased transparency from federal financial regulators.Last week, the American Fintech Council, which represents BaaS banks, supported the introduction of the Fair Audits and Inspections for Regulators (FAIR) Exams Act by Sens. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., and Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. David Patti, director of communications and government relations at Customers Bank in Phoenixville, Pennsylvania, said financial institutions would prefer to be told what the exact expectations are for bank-fintech partnerships and other matters, instead of guessing until they make a mistake in the eyes of regulators. Brian Graham, a co-founder and partner at Klaros Group, said regulators haven't issued many clear-cut rules for BaaS, and the process for challenging those agencies can be precarious."There's a legitimate point to be made that much more of the public policy around banking is happening outside of the law and regulation process, and [instead] in the supervisory process, which can both feel more arbitrary and unfair and sometimes can be arbitrary and unfair," Graham said.Phil Goldfeder, CEO of the American Fintech Council, said in a prepared statement in response to the proposed legislation that "innovative banks are rightfully held to the highest standard of transparency, compliance and responsibility," but added that regulators should meet the same bar. Banking-as-a-service, when fintechs and banks partner to deliver services, has been high on regulators' radars in recent years. In June, the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued guidance for how banks can assess and monitor third-party relationships, but bankers and trade groups said the report still wasn't specific enough. Patti said that the $22 billion-asset Customers, a player in the BaaS space, is in constant communication with its regulators to make policy decisions for the bank to follow. But if regulators make individual decisions with each financial institution, it's hard to know if each bank is treated consistently, he said. "In the absence of bright lines, it depends on relationships [with regulators]," Patti said. "So there's probably not much transparency. ... It's not transparent and not public."

Bank Bailout Fund Usage Soars To Another Record High As 2023 Sees Greatest Annual Money-Market Inflows Ever (Graphs Source: Bloomberg) After two weeks of outflows, money-market funds returned to inflows in the week ending 12/27, adding $16.4BN to $5.89TN... Which means 2023 saw the largest annual money-market inflow ever - a whopping $1.151TN. That is the seventh year in a row of annual MM inflows... But, with recession odds declining rapidly, are we about to see MM outflows accelerate? Graph Source: Goldman Sachs Retail money-market funds capped the year with yet another inflow (+$13.3BN) meaning there was only one weekly outflow from retail funds in 2023. Institutional funds saw a $3.4BN inflow also... Graphs Source: Bloomberg In a breakdown for the week to Dec. 27, government funds - which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt - saw assets rise to $4.81 trillion, an $18.9 billion gain. Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, meanwhile, saw assets fall to $951.4 billion, a $3.8 billion decrease. “The big question is how overweight are investors in money markets,” Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said in a Bloomberg Television interview earlier this week. “Some exposure makes sense. That’s part of being diversified. But there is significant overweight on the part of some investors and I do think that starts to come out.” Interestingly, bank deposits are rising rapidly in the last few weeks as are money-market funds... Notably, with year-end liquidity needs growing, the exodus from The Fed's reverse-repo facility has stalled (for now)... The Fed's balance sheet shrank by $11.3BN last week to its lowest level since March 2021... Usage of The Fed's bank bailout facility rose by another $4.5BN last week to a new record high of $136BN... But Regional bank shares don't care... The BTFP-Fed Arb continues to offer 'free-money' (and usage of the BTFP has risen by $26.7BN since the arb existed): The rate on the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program - which allows banks and credit unions to borrow funds for up to one year, pledging US Treasuries and agency debt as collateral valued at par - is the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points. That figure is currently 4.83%, down from 5.59% in September. For institutions that have an account at the Fed, they can borrow from the BTFP at 4.83% and park that at the central bank to earn 5.40% - the interest on reserve balances. Graphs Source: Bloomberg The 57bp spread is the widest level since the Fed introduced the facility to support a struggling banking system after the collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in New York. Finally, equity market caps continue to soar after recoupling with bank reserves at The Fed (though the stalling in the drawdown of the RRP has slowed the expansion again this week in a bigger way)...

Basel III endgame: 5 things to watch in 2024 | American Banker - The Basel III endgame is entering its end stage. Tuesday, Jan. 16 is the deadline for the public to comment on a joint proposal from the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that would rewrite capital obligations for all banks with at least $100 billion of assets. Put forth in July, the proposal would force the affected banks to increase their aggregate Tier 1 equity capital by 16%, with the largest, global systemically important banks bearing the brunt of the increase, seeing their capital levels bumped by 19%.Banks have pushed back hard against the potential rule change, as have congressional Republicans and other interest groups outside the banking space, including those representing small business, multinational corporations and the real estate sector. Their issues are multifaceted, but the primary arguments raised are that the rule goes too far and would force banks to pull back on lending. Some have also raised procedural concerns with the proposal.Supporters of the reforms say the changes are necessary to close gaps in the current regulatory framework, which were laid bare during a run of bank failures earlier this year. By their estimate, the benefits of a safer banking system outweigh the potential costs — which regulators project would be minimal. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the average lending portfolio would see its required capital increase by 3 basis points, or 0.03%, while the bulk of the capital increase would be derived from trading and investment activities.Regulators attached a litany of questions to the proposed rule change for the industry and the public at large to weigh in on. Once the comment period closes, the agencies will set to work absorbing those comments and absorbing them into a final rule. In a recent public appearance, Barr emphasized the importance of the comment period and noted that he and his fellow regulators are paying close attention to the feedback being given. "We have already heard concerns that the proposed risk-based capital treatment for mortgage lending, tax credit investments, trading activities, and activities that generate fee-based income might overestimate the risk of these activities," Barr said. "We welcome all comments that provide the agencies with additional data and perspectives to help ensure the rules accurately reflect risk."The agencies are on track to put a final rule to a vote at some point in 2024, likely in the first half of the year. The proposal calls for implementation to start in 2025 with a three-year phase-in period. But there is much for policymakers to work through before reaching that point. Below are the top storylines related to the Basel III endgame to track in the year ahead.

BankThink: Basel endgame must rethink treatment of securities financing | American Banker - The Basel III endgame proposal on the treatment of securities financing transactions and the SFT minimum haircuts has become a subject of concern for industry participants, particularly pension funds, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. These financial entities generally utilize SFTs as securities lenders, not cash borrowers. Therefore, the proposal presents challenges that warrant urgent attention and revision.Of primary concern, the proposed directive overlooks the unique characteristics and risk profiles of pension funds and mutual funds. Imposing SFT minimum haircuts without considering these factors could lead to unintended consequences such as increased costs for fund managers and higher fees for investors. It is crucial for regulators to engage in a thorough evaluation of the potential impacts before finalizing any regulations to ensure a balanced and effective approach to risk management in the financial industry. Another consideration lies in the fact that no other regulator globally has implemented such a requirement, placing U.S. institutions at a disadvantage and potentially prompting the migration of SFT-related activities overseas. This would not only impact the financial viability of domestic institutions but also result in a loss of economic activity within the United States.Additionally, the proposal may discourage foreign investors from participating in the U.S. securities market, further reducing economic activity and potentially limiting access to capital for domestic institutions. Furthermore, the increased complexity and administrative burden could lead to higher costs for market participants, ultimately affecting their ability to compete globally and attract investment. Therefore, it is essential for regulators to carefully evaluate the potential negative consequences before implementing such requirements.It is crucial for regulators to carefully consider the potential negative consequences before implementing such requirements. While they are collaborating with industry experts and stakeholders before the comment deadline on Jan. 16, the regulators should ensure that any modifications to exceptions are well-informed and effectively address market practices, thereby preventing any disruption to the securities borrowing and lending markets. These proactive measures would greatly assist to align the regulatory framework with established practices but also protect the essential role of pension funds, mutual funds and ETFs in meeting the needs of their beneficiaries without unnecessary obstacles.Second, the exemption for reinvestment of cash collateral in shorter-dated investments needs to be broadened to encompass the standard range of investments made by pension funds. This would involve incorporating investments such as overnight repo, treasuries and other government/government-sponsored-enterprise securities, as well as cash-like instruments within the qualifying criteria for exemptions. By expanding the scope of eligible investments, regulators can support the investment strategies and liquidity management practices of pension funds, ultimately fostering a more robust and adaptable investment environment.Furthermore, implementing a purpose exemption that does not require transaction-level documentation would also alleviate the burden on pension funds to constantly provide detailed evidence for each borrowing. This would allow them to focus more on their investment strategies and liquidity management, ultimately leading to more efficient and effective decision making. Moreover, by relying on representations from borrowers or their established policies and procedures, pension funds can maintain a level of trust and confidence in the borrowing process while minimizing unnecessary administrative hurdles.

Elections bankers need to watch in 2024 - — The 2024 elections are fast approaching, and the results could turn the tide in Washington when it comes to bank policy. The presidential contest is the most consequential race next year, to be sure: The outcome could mean a new crop of regulators affecting financial policy across the board. But a number of key senators from the Banking Committee — or those with significant financial policy experience — are also going to be decided in next year's ballot. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, faces a difficult reelection campaign back home in an increasingly red state, and Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., similarly has to win in his rural western state, a test to how his moderate and independent attitudes on economic and banking issues will hold up. Democrats in banking have a little more to look forward to in California, where Rep. Katie Porter — a financial protection academic and protege of Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. — is an early favorite to fill the seat left by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Here's four important races for bankers to keep tabs on this election season: (— The 2024 elections are fast approaching, and the results could turn the tide in Washington when it comes to bank policy. The presidential contest is the most consequential race next year, to be sure: The outcome could mean a new crop of regulators affecting financial policy across the board. But a number of key senators from the Banking Committee — or those with significant financial policy experience — are also going to be decided in next year's ballot. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, faces a difficult reelection campaign back home in an increasingly red state, and Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., similarly has to win in his rural western state, a test to how his moderate and independent attitudes on economic and banking issues will hold up. Democrats in banking have a little more to look forward to in California, where Rep. Katie Porter — a financial protection academic and protege of Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. — is an early favorite to fill the seat left by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Here's four important races for bankers to keep tabs on this election season: — The 2024 elections are fast approaching, and the results could turn the tide in Washington when it comes to bank policy. The presidential contest is the most consequential race next year, to be sure: The outcome could mean a new crop of regulators affecting financial policy across the board. But a number of key senators from the Banking Committee — or those with significant financial policy experience — are also going to be decided in next year's ballot. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, faces a difficult reelection campaign back home in an increasingly red state, and Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., similarly has to win in his rural western state, a test to how his moderate and independent attitudes on economic and banking issues will hold up. Democrats in banking have a little more to look forward to in California, where Rep. Katie Porter — a financial protection academic and protege of Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. — is an early favorite to fill the seat left by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Here's four important races for bankers to keep tabs on this election season: The Presidential race, the Ohio Senate, the California Senate and the Montana Senate)

These are the 5 CFPB rules to watch in 2024 | American Banker -Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, will be giving banks a big lump of coal this Christmas by proposing to eliminate billions in overdraft revenue and credit card late fees. The top consumer regulator has a dozen rules on its docket and plans to kick off 2024 by issuing final rules in January on overdraft fees, insufficient funds fees and credit card late fees.Chopra has already taken a big bite out of corporate profits by prodding the top banks to scale back their approach to fees generally. But 2024 also will be the year that Chopra advances a tougher approach to technology aimed at protecting consumers' data privacy rights. The CFPB has rules in the works next year that would rein in data brokers and data aggregators while also subjecting the largestpayments firms to the bureau's supervision. Consumers and lawmakers have repeatedly called for common-sense guardrails around personal financial data that gives consumers more control. Toward that end, Chopra wants to restrict what financial data can be bought and sold. With Big Tech firms morphing into payments giants, the CFPB also plans to issue a rule that would subject Amazon, Apple, Google and others to supervision as it examines the ways in which companies monetize data that may unfairly impact consumers. Here are five of the most important rulemakings the CFPB will issue in 2024:

• Credit card late fees to be slashed to $8 Banks are livid about a rule expected in January that would slash credit card late fees to just $8 — down from the current $30 for a first offense and $41 for subsequent violations. Credit card companies charged consumers a record $105 billion in interest and $25 billion in fees last year, the CFPB claimed in its biannual report to Congress. When the CFPB issued its proposal in February to cut late fees, Chopra did not mince words.
• Cracking down on illegal overdraft practices, insufficient funds fees. Banks have dramatically cut overdraft fees in the past few years due to pressure from the CFPB and consumers. Ally Financial in Detroit that became the first bank to scrap all overdraft-related charges in 2021. Then a ripple effect spread across the industry when Bank of America slashed overdraft fees last year from $35 to $10. Consumers have saved billions in the process.
• Consumers should know who has their data and how it is used. The CFPB's most consequential rule in 2024 gives consumers control over their financial data by restricting the data that companies can collect, retain and sell. The CFPB's personal financial data rights rule, also known as "1033," for its section in the Dodd Frank Act, requires that banks give bank account transaction data to fintechs at a customers' request. Industry experts often refer to the rule as "open banking."
• CFPB to crack down on third-party data brokers, aggregators. Any company that aggregates and sells data could potentially be subjected to the Fair Credit Reporting Act under a proposal by the CFPB that has far-reaching implications for consumers, data aggregators and data brokers. Technology companies that are currently in the process of creating new financial products face massive new regulations ahead — and may not yet know it.
• Big Tech firms to get supervised, examined by the CFPB. Giant nonbank payment companies Amazon, Apple, Google and more than a dozen others face being examined and supervised by the CFPB under a rule to be enacted next year.

21 SPAC Companies Go Bust, Wiping out $46 Billion In Equity - An increasing number of startups that have merged with special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are running out of cash and unable to raise new funds in a deteriorating macro environment with high interest rates. At least 21 companies that went public via SPACs filed for bankruptcy this year, wiping out $46 billion in total equity, according to Bloomberg data. Some of the largest bankruptcies were WeWork, Lordstown Motors, and Virgin Orbit. The failures of coworking space, electric vehicle, and space launch startups exemplify that these companies were never "ready for primetime" on public markets, said Gary Broadbent, an executive guiding former SPAC AppHarvest Inc. WeWork was the highest-profile SPAC implosion of the year. It was once valued at $9.4 billion after going public in 2021. This blow-up exemplifies the bubbles the Federal Reserve blows in a near-zero interest rate environment, with the eventual implosion when rates rise (or before, in anticipation of higher rates). Usha Rodrigues, a law professor at the University of Georgia, said the SPAC bubble during Covid was a "ticking time bomb" of corporate failures and "Everyone should have seen this cliff coming." Bloomberg data shows about 140 SPACs desperately need financing in 2024 to keep operations humming. Elevated interest rates will make refinance challenging and increase the risk of more bankruptcies. Hudson Labs shows about 44% of SPAC companies that filed annual reports in 2023 have stated going-concern warnings compared with 22% of non-SPAC companies. However, the Fed's pivot this month could be the biggest lifeline for these startups as rate traders prices in 6 interest rate cuts through December 2024.

Grayscale Chair Barry Silbert resigns while SEC mulls bitcoin ETF -- Grayscale Investments, the cryptocurrency-trust manager vying for U.S. approval to convert the world's biggest bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund, said Barry Silbert has resigned as its chairman. Silbert is chief executive and founder of Grayscale parent Digital Currency Group, the sprawling crypto conglomerate that is embroiled in several ongoing disputes in the wake of the 2022 industry meltdown. DCG is the subject of lawsuits by U.S. regulators over a lending program by its former unit Genesis Global Capital and Gemini Trust Co., the crypto exchange founded by the billionaire Winklevoss brothers, that froze customer assets last year. Silbert, 47, will be succeeded by Mark Shifke, the chief financial officer of DCG. Mark Murphy, the president of DCG, has also resigned from the Grayscale board. Grayscale didn't cite a reason for the board changes, which are effective Jan. 1, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.The board shake-up comes ahead of a Jan. 10 deadline for the SEC to decide whether to greenlight a spot bitcoin ETF application filed by Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management LLC and 21Shares. The regulator could at that time also rule on other similar filings, including Grayscale's GBTC conversion application. Grayscale took the SEC to court after the agency rejected an earlier proposal to convert the trust and won a pivotal victory when an appeals court rejected the regulator's ruling.

Bitcoin ETF Approval Tipped to Be 'Sell The News' Event: CryptoQuant - Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to correct to as low as $32,000 next month following the potential approval of a spot ETF, according to data provider CryptoQuant. In what is being described as a potential "sell the news" event, CryptoQuant said in a note to CoinDesk that trader's unrealized profits are currently lingering at a level that historically precedes a correction. "Sell the news" is a well-known term in capital markets, it describes how asset prices, leverage and sentiment run up in the lead up to a bullish event only for prices to tumble shortly after. This is because astute traders capitalize on the over-crowded long trade, trapping those with leverage and forcing them to close or get liquidated as price goes against them. An ETF being approved is perceived as a bullish event as it will open up inflows to bitcoin from institutions, thus creating consistent buy pressure. "Short term Bitcoin holders are experiencing high unrealized profit margins of 30%, which historically has preceded price corrections (red circles)," CryptoQuant wrote in the note. "Moreover, short term holders are still spending Bitcoin at a profit, while rallies usually come after short-term losses are realized." BTC realized profit chart (CryptoQuant)

Jamie Dimon, Who "Hates" Bitcoin, Will Be Broker-Dealer On The Bitcoin ETF Of The World's Biggest Asset Manager -- Remember when Jamie Dimon was yelling and screaming that Bitcoin is a "fraud that will eventually blow up", that he'd "close it down if he was the government", and that crypto's only "true use case is for criminals, drug traffickers, money laundering and tax avoidance"? Well, it turns out the bank that has paid out $40 billion in fines, penalties and legal settlements as a recidivist criminal enterprise, has decided to double down on crime by its own definition...... and today we learned that not one but two giant asset managers - Invesco as well as the world's biggest asset manager and the Fed's own trading desk, Blackrock - both named JPMorgan as their Authorized Participant, i.e., the intermediary firm that will make the ETF possible in the first place by converting bitcoin into cash and vice versa.In addition to JPMorgan, BlackRock also named Jane Street Capital - best known as the fund where Sam Bankman-Fried learned all he needed to know about HFTing the bitcoin market on his way to becoming the greatest crypto criminal in history - as the broker-dealers who will be responsible for steering cash into and out of its spot-Bitcoin ETF when, not if, it is approved by the SEC some time in January.JPMorgan will be an authorized participants for both Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF according to amended prospectuses filed with the SEC late on Friday. As such, they’ll be responsible for handling the creation and redemption of baskets of shares in the ETF and transfers of cash to and from the fund’s administrator.

Judge sides with US SEC, says Terraform Labs crypto founder Do Kwon violated law (Reuters) - A federal judge ruled on Thursday that cryptocurrency entrepreneur Do Kwon and his company Terraform Labs violated U.S. law by failing to register two digital currencies that collapsed in 2022. U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff in Manhattan sided with the Securities and Exchange Commission in its case stemming from the implosion of the TerraUSD and Luna currencies. Rakoff also denied summary judgment to both sides on the SEC's fraud claims, which will proceed toward a scheduled Jan. 29, 2024 trial. He dismissed SEC claims that the defendants illegally offered security-based swaps. A Terraform spokesman said the company strongly disagreed with the decision, did not believe its tokens were securities, and would continue defending against the SEC's "meritless" fraud claims at trial. The SEC had no immediate comment. Kwon, a South Korea native, has also been charged with fraud by U.S. prosecutors in Manhattan.He has been fighting extradition to the United States from Montenegro, where he was arrested in March several hours before the criminal fraud charges were announced.Kwon had designed TerraUSD, a "stablecoin" designed to maintain a constant $1 price, and Luna, a more traditional token whose value fluctuated but was closely linked to TerraUSD.Both cryptocurrencies lost an estimated $40 billion or more when TerraUSD proved unable in May 2022 to maintain its $1 peg.Their collapse also dragged down the value of other cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. The SEC contended that four of the defendants' crypto assets, including TerraUSD and Luna, were unregistered securities because they qualified as "investment contracts."It also accused Terraform and Kwon of repeatedly misleading investors about the stability of TerraUSD, including by claiming that their cryptocurrencies would increase in value.. In a 71-page decision, Rakoff said there was "no genuine dispute" that the four crypto assets were securities under a 1946 U.S. Supreme Court decision defining investment contracts. The Court ruled in that case, SEC v WJ Howey Co, that an investment of money in a common enterprise, with profits to come solely from others' efforts, was an investment contract. But the judge also said reasonable jurors could disagree over whether the defendants intended to defraud investors in multiple statements about Terraform's business. These included statements about TerraUSD's temporary May 2021 failure to maintain its $1 peg, and how a popular Korean mobile payment app used the Terraform blockchain to settle transactions and supported Luna's value. Rakoff said the SEC's remedies for the sale of unregistered securities would be decided once the defendants' liability on the fraud claims has been resolved.

SEC payouts to whistleblowers plummet despite record surge in tips - The number of whistleblowers receiving awards from the Securities and Exchange Commission dropped sharply in fiscal year 2023, even as more tips poured in than ever before, and a single informant received the largest payout in agency history.The agency received more than 18,000 tips in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, a 50 percent jump from the previous year, according to the SEC whistleblower program's annual report to Congress. But only 68 tipsters got any money, compared to more than 100 in each of the previous two years.Interviews with attorneys who participate in the program and a review of SEC decisions — along with court cases challenging some of those decisions — portray a program straining under the weight of its success. The lure of huge payouts, such as the $279 million that went to one tipster last year, with no growth in the program's staffing or budget, may be taxing the SEC's ability to keep up with the intent of the legislation authorizing it, attorneys say."They need more resources. The SEC is very good at evaluating whistleblower disclosures and prioritizing action, but surely when you have 18,000 tips, there's a real risk that serious harm to investors will be missed," Washington attorney Jason Zuckerman of Zuckerman Law said.Written into the Dodd-Frank financial reform law of 2010, the whistleblower law was created to make sure tips about financial wrongdoing aren't ignored, as they were before Bernie Madoff's $64.8 billion Ponzi scheme unraveled. At its core, the SEC says its whistleblower program is about money, both the amount recovered on behalf of defrauded investors and the amount awarded to those who helped to expose fraud. Since its 2010 inception, the program has recovered more than $6 billion and paid out nearly $2 billion to informants. Last year it awarded nearly $600 million, although more than half came in just two awards. One was the $279 million to the tipster credited with uncovering a $1 billion fraud at Swedish telecom LM Ericsson. Another $104 million was shared by "seven whistleblowers, including foreign nationals … for reporting misconduct at an entity's subsidiaries in three jurisdictions," the agency said in its annual report.

Man accused of running crypto ‘Ponzi scheme’ arrested in South Florida – A man arrested in Broward County just before Christmas is accused in federal court of being one of the masterminds behind a cryptocurrency “Ponzi scheme,” according to an indictment unsealed late Tuesday. Horst Jicha, 64, was charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, using manipulative or deceptive devices, attempt and conspiracy to commit mail fraud and money laundering in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York, which covers Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, and Long Island. It’s not clear what Jicha, described in the indictment as a German national who resided in Brazil and Spain, was doing in South Florida at the time of his arrest. He was booked into the Broward County jail Friday on a U.S. Marshals hold and was no longer listed in local jail records as of Wednesday morning. According to the indictment, issued in late August, Jicha was a founder and the CEO of a company called “USI-Tech,” which was purportedly incorporated in the United Arab Emirates and claimed to make “cryptocurrency mining and trading accessible to the average retail investor through its online platform.” The indictment also includes unnamed co-conspirators. USI-Tech, short for “United Software Intelligence,” used a multilevel marketing sales strategy. Prosecutors allege that in 2017, Jicha and others aggressively promoted the company in the U.S., falsely promising 140% returns over 140 days on a 50-euro “BTC package.” Cryptocurrency news website CoinCentral described the company as a “classic crypto Ponzi.” Jicha urged investors to buy multiple packages to compound their returns, according to the indictment. According to prosecutors, the multilevel marketing aspect of the company allowed Jicha to distance himself from any false claims investors may have made as they tried to market the product to others and avoid the legal responsibility that comes with marketing investment products. Authorities allege that Jicha assured investors at an event at a casino in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania that USI-Tech was “not a ‘scam’ or a ‘Ponzi scheme’,” claiming he spent “hundreds of hours” and untold amounts of money to make sure that everything was “legal” in the U.S. Regulators in U.S. states and Canadian provinces began zoning in on USI-Tech in late 2017 and early 2018, the indictment states, issuing cease and desist orders against the company, which soon shut down. Prosecutors said Jicha sent an email to investors on Jan. 8, 2018, blaming them for the company’s closure, but claimed later that month that they could resume marketing the products and, in March, stating that the company would repay investors through a “BTC 2.0 Package.” But investors were never able to withdraw their money, according to the indictment, and Jicha began ghosting them. Prosecutors said $94 million worth of Bitcoin and Ether cryptocurrencies would end up in an account controlled by Jicha.

Video: Hear how this man lost $1M in a 'pig butchering' crypto scam | CNN -- Pig butchering, a new form of financial fraud, is on the rise in the US according to the FBI. CNN's senior international correspondent Ivan Watson spoke to two victims of the scam and traces its roots back to South East Asia.

Four crypto developments to watch for in 2024 | American Banker -After the spectacular collapse of the FTX crypto exchange at the end of 2022 and the legal and financial fallout that resulted, one might reasonably conclude that crypto's time was over. But despite ongoing reservations by regulators and lawmakers about the safety and utility of crypto assets, blockchain technology and its adherents are not going away. While Bitcoin's value has not yet returned to its 2021 record highs of over $69,000, the flagship cryptocurrency more than doubled its value in 2023, and expectations that the Fed will forgo further interest rate hikes in the near term could draw investors toward the riskier asset in 2024.But while crypto may have moved past the FTX era, the Treasury Department's recent record fine against Binance is a sign crypto continues to struggle to shake its association with fraud. The industry continues to petition regulators for written rules of the road, but in a divided government that's barely able to keep the lights on, legislative clarity remains out of reach. A bipartisan agreement on crypto assets has a shrinking likelihood of passing as lawmakers enter an election year. Further complicating matters, House Financial Services Committee chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. — one of Congress' chief crypto bill architects — is exiting Congress, leaving his crypto legislative drafts with an uncertain future. Absent legislation, enforcement by market regulators the SEC and CFTC will continue to focus on regulating major crypto players. Where judges side in the ongoing legal battle between the SEC andRipple, along with ongoing cases against Coinbase, Binance, and more recently Kraken, may provide the industry some certainty as to the legality of tokens and whether they qualify as securities or commodities. But regardless of the outcome of those cases, the crypto market will remain largely in suspense regarding its regulatory future into next year.Meanwhile, Regulators are interested in using blockchain technology to make traditional financial asset settlement more fast and efficient, known as tokenization, which could be transformative for financial institutions. Here's what to watch in the cryptosphere in 2024. (A push for rules around tokenization; Crypto legislation will remain in limbo: SEC vs. CFTC tug-of-war: A big year for Bitcoin)

Hackers obtained Social Security numbers in Fidelity cyberattack -- Following a pre-Thanksgiving cyberattack at parent company Fidelity National, mortgage subservicer Loancare disclosed the degree of data compromise that has occurred from the incident thus far. In a filing with the Maine attorney general's office last week, Loancare revealed personal identifiable information, including Social Security numbers, of 1,316,938 customers were exposed in the event, which occurred on Nov. 19. In correspondence being sent to affected clients, the Virginia Beach, Virginia-based company said it "determined that an unauthorized third party exfiltrated data from certain FNF systems," while noting it had not seen any fraudulent use of customer information thus far. "Based on our investigation, we understand that your Name, Address, Social Security Number, and Loan Number may have been obtained by the unauthorized third party," the letter added. As part of requirements to protect potential victims, Loancare is offering 24 months ofidentity theft protection services to recipients of its letter through Kroll Monitoring. Among the resources included in the package is credit and web monitoring, identity-theft restoration services, as well as consultation and up to $1 million reimbursement for damages resulting from any ID fraud loss.While Fidelity National attempts to address the fallout, neither it nor any of its subsidiaries have identified the perpetrators of the attack, although the notorious ransomware group Alphv/Blackcat claimed responsibility. The Maine filing came just days after both Loancare and Fidelity National were named as defendants in a potential California class action resulting from the hack. The November data breach left Loancare and FNF customers without online access to their accounts for several days. And in an unwelcome recurrence to end the year, First American also presently finds itself in the throes of a probable cyberattack. Upon initial discovery on Dec. 20 of what it described as a "cybersecurity incident," the title insurance and settlement services provider shut down access to its website, including customer account portals and its email system. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, the company said, "During the disruption, the Company's primary website may be inaccessible or inoperative," noting it could not estimate the duration or extent of the impact. As of midday Tuesday, First American's website was still offline with updates provided through an affiliated link, firstamupdate.com. The latest hack occurs just weeks after the company paid a $1 million penalty to New York State following a months-long data breach in 2019.

Update on FirstAm Cyber Attack --Update on FirstAm cyber attack (started on Dec 20th). This will impact December house closings. From FirstAm: "FirstAm.com has been restored (with some limits to functionality). We will continue to post updates on this page as we return to normal business operations."

Can Ginnie Mae fix its delinquent loan policy? -Most stakeholders in the mortgage industry agree the way Ginnie Mae requires issuers to advance timely payments to investors on delinquent loans is outdated and burdensome on lenders. What they disagree on is how this should be fixed.Calls for Ginnie Mae to address its long-standing requirements come during a time of declining origination activity, with an industry under immense pressure to survive amid forecasts of an economic downturn. Facing a tough winter ahead, lenders may struggle to make their principal and interest payments to investors, an issue that can be made worse if a recession hits.Several proposals have been floated to bridge liquidity shortfalls, such as a commercial paper solution, pooling delinquent loans or an update to the Pass-Through Assistance Program. Meanwhile, others argue the solution is for the agency to revamp its requirements.Ginnie Mae hasn't outlined exactly how it would address this issue, though it has implied the subject is top-of-mind. President Alanna McCargo said in August that issuers' livelihood is "one of the biggest things we need to figure out.""We do not need to enter another downturn and not know how to support these institutions," she said, while speaking at the Bipartisan Policy Center. "These institutions are incredibly important to the system and the constituents that they serve, so I think we just have to figure out what that's going to look like." What's troubling nonbank mortgage companies in the Ginnie Mae program is the way the government guarantor "requires all issuers to make advances when a borrower misses paying," said Scott Olson, executive director at Community Home Lenders of America. "They require our members – that are not banks – to be a banker to borrowers that miss their payments," Olson said. "We lend the money. We advance the money and it has nothing to do with a company's profitability. It has nothing to do with our solvency but it creates liquidity demands and forces IMBs to become bankers."While Olson acknowledged that issuers sign up for such obligations, in an uncertain economic environment, lenders could be saddled with a ballooning portfolio of delinquent loans that they have to continue making principal and interest payments on. Some of the top issuers of Ginnie's program are major originators in the field, such as Rocket Mortgage, Freedom Mortgage, Newrez, Mr. Cooper and PennyMac Loan Servicing, the agency's 2022 annual report shows.According to Pete Mills, senior vice president of residential policy at the Mortgage Bankers Association, the "payment of timely P&I is guaranteed by the U.S. government, but it relies on private entities to make that happen and when you hit a situation where you've got exigent economic circumstances, such as disasters, health emergencies or economic downturn, that creates stress in the marketplace."The way Ginnie operates is drastically different from the way the government-sponsored enterprises handle delinquencies. Delinquent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans are bought out at 120 days by the GSEs, while for the government guarantor, issuers have to advance payments until the loan either reperforms or goes into foreclosure. "In many cases, you're advancing on a delinquent loan in a Ginnie pool for months and months and months and that's a liquidity burden," said Mills.

Delinquencies up but remain historically low going into 2024 -- Government-backed loans can be an early indicator of mortgage stress because borrowers tend to have less of a financial buffer against hardships than others, and in that regardIntercontinental Exchange's November mortgage performance numbers are notable.Total delinquencies remain historically low compared to last year and prior to the pandemic at 3.39%, even with a small seasonal uptick; but Federal Housing Administration-insured andDepartment of Veterans Affairs-guaranteed loans were another matter. Outside of an unusual spike early in the pandemic, past dues for FHA loans overall were the highest they've been in nine years, the company reported in its First Look report on November's data. And early indications of payment troubles for mortgages in the VA sector also were notable on a historical basis. With the pandemic period excluded, VA delinquencies were the highest they've been since 2009. "Both segments bear watching in the months ahead," ICE said in a press release. That said, the mortgage market's broad loan performance remains healthy, with investors generally showing little concern about credit because delinquencies are still at historically low levels and many loans do have government-related backing. "Keep context in mind. Delinquencies are up slightly, but they're up from all-time record lows," said Vadim Verkhoglyad, vice president and head of research at capital markets fintech Dv01. "The overall mortgage market set record low delinquency rates twice in 2023." After government-backed loans, mortgages in private portfolios and securitizations tend to be the next most sensitive to hardships that can cause performance concerns, as the level of dwindling pandemic-dominated forbearance within it has consistently shown. The share of FHA and VA loans in forbearance during November was 0.47%, compared to 0.30% for mortgages held in portfolio and private-label securities, and 0.16% for Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-backed financings.

Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased --Single-family serious delinquencies were mostly unchanged in November, however, multi-family serious delinquencies increased.Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 0.54%, unchanged from 0.54% October. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.66% in November 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic lows. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 0.54% in November from 0.54% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.64% in November 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic lows. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.70% are seriously delinquent (up from 1.68% the previous month). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.58% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.60%).For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.46% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.45%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.Freddie Mac reports that multi-family delinquencies increased to 0.28% in November, up from 0.15% in November 2022. This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Rates were still high in 2012 following the housing bust and financial crisis.The multi-family rate increased following the pandemic and has increased recently as rent growth has slowed, vacancy rates have increased, and interest rates have increased sharply. This will be something to watch as rents soften, and more apartments come on the market.

Mortgage Rates Dropped a Lot but Clearly Not to the Magic Level. Buyers’ Strike Continues. Issue Is Price by Wolf Richter --The dream is, or was, that mortgage rates dropped enough in November and December to push potential home buyers out of their buyers’ strike and to sally forth and start bidding wars all over again, so that we could amuse ourselves with headlines touting the new craze, while millennials and GenZers are trampling all over each other to outbid each other and to drive up prices to make each other miserable, so that sellers could maximize their gains. The media just loves touting this kind of stuff. And mortgage rates dropped a whole bunch, and new listings are now suddenly showing up in larger numbers than a year ago, but buyers not so much. Clearly, mortgage rates haven’t dropped to the magic level yet, folks are waiting for them to drop further, and the market remains frozen.Pending home sales – a forward-looking indicator of sales of existing homes, based on contract signings – in November were unchanged from October, and both occupy the second-lowest historic low, after the historic low in April 2020, according to the national Association of Realtors today. So this is not exactly what people figured in their wildest dreams (data via YCharts): The NAR defines a “pending sale” as a transaction where the contract was signed but it has not yet closed. At this point, the deal can still fall through for a variety of reasons. If all goes well, the sale usually closes “within one or two months of signing.” The index value was set at 100 for contract signings in 2001. Today’s value of 71.6 is down 28.4% from the index average in 2001. Compared to the prior Novembers, the index value of contract signings plunged… By 5% from the already collapsed levels of November 2022 By 40% from November 2021 By 43% from November 2020 By 34% from November 2019. Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dipped in the latest week, after inching up a few weeks in a row, according to the latest weekly data released on December 20 by the Mortgage Bankers Association. And these purchase mortgage applications remain at totally collapsed levels, down by 18% from the already collapsed levels in the same week in 2022, down by 48% from the same week in 2021, and down by 43% from the same week in 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped a lot, but not nearly enough to hit that magic level that restarts the whole zoo all over again, apparently. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked down to 6.61% in the latest reporting week, from 6.67% in the prior week, according to Freddie Mac today. Today’s average is down by 118 basis points from the peak of 7.79% in the week at the end of October. Ironically, there was a similar drop (101 basis points) a year ago, to even lower rates of just above 6%, and it didn’t turn up volume either – on the contrary. The issue with the frozen market for existing homes isn’t the mortgage rate – it’s the price of the home that people want to buy. Prices have shot sky-high over the past few years, from already very high levels, and the solution is lower prices. A continued buyers’ strike goes a long way to making that happen. And in some markets, that’s already happening.. Homebuilders who have to sell their homes and cannot sit out this market have figured this out. They’re building smaller homes with fewer amenities to get prices down, and as their incentive to induce people to buy those smaller and cheaper homes, they’re also buying down mortgage rates which takes the place of other incentives they would normally offer.

Housing December 25th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 3.9% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.9% week-over-week and is now up 3.9% year-over-year. Inventory will likely decrease seasonally until the Spring. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of December 22nd, inventory was at 529 thousand (7-day average), compared to 539 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 7.5% and will start at a higher level in 2024 than in 2023, but still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 3.9% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 3.0%), and down 34.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 34.4%). Back in June, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year in October -- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Accelerates in October - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual change in October, up from a 4% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 5.7%, up from a 4.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, up from a 3.9% increase in the previous month. Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.1% increase in October, followed again by San Diego with a 7.2% increase. Portland fell 0.6% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in October versus a year ago.... Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite, posted 0.2% month-over-month increases in October, while the 20-City composite posted 0.1% increase. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 10-City and 20-City Composites each posted month-over-month increases of 0.6%. “Each of our 10-city, 20-city and National Index, remain at all-time highs, with 8 of 20 cities registering all-time highs (Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, New York and Cleveland). While Portland remains slightly down compared to last year’s gains, Phoenix and Las Vegas have flipped to year over year gains. The Midwest and the Northeast region are fastest growing markets, while the Southwest and West regions have lagged other regions for over a year. A solid, if unspectacular report, this month’s index reflects a rising tide across nearly all markets. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The Composite 10 index is up 0.6% in October (SA) and is at a new all-time high.The Composite 20 index is up 0.6% (SA) in October and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.6% (SA) in October and is also at a new all-time high. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.7% below recent peak --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.7% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 70% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1% above the bubble peak. People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $424,000 today adjusted for inflation (41% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index. ...The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.4% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.3% below the recent peak in 2022. In real terms, national house prices are 10.3% above the bubble peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been about 17 years since the previous peak, but real prices are historically high.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in November; Down 5.2% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Recorded No Change in November Pending home sales in November were identical to those in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the South recorded a loss. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year declines in transactions.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – stayed at 71.6 in November. Year over year, pending transactions were down 5.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....The Northeast PHSI rose 0.8% from last month to 64.4, a drop of 6.4% from November 2022. The Midwest index increased 0.5% to 76.2 in November, down 2.2% from one year ago.The South PHSI declined 2.3% to 83.2 in November, decreasing 6.5% from the prior year. The West index climbed 4.2% in November to 54.0, falling 4.9% from November 2022.This was below expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.

US Pending Home Sales Index Slumps To New Record Low In November - With new home sales plummeting (playing catch-down to reality) and existing home sales bouncing very modestly off record lows (SAAR), pending home sales were expected to rise modestly MoM in November (+0.9%). However, Pending Home Sales missed expectations, unchanged in November (from an upwardly revised October decline of -1.2% MoM). That left Pending Home Sales Index still down over 5% YoY... That leaves the Pending Home Sales Index at a new record low...The index of contract signings for existing homes declined in the South, the biggest US housing market, to the lowest level on record.Pending sales climbed in the other three regions.The trend in pending home sales appears to tracking mortgage rates (with about a one-month lag), suggesting things may be about to pick up more solidly in the next few months...“Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.“With mortgage rates falling further in December – leading to savings of around $300 per month from the recent cyclical peak in rates – home sales will improve in 2024,” Yun said.

As billionaire wealth surges, US faces record homelessness - This holiday season, America’s financial oligarchy is celebrating as the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks record after record. But this winter, more homeless Americans than ever will spend the holidays on the streets, in homeless shelters, in parked cars and RVs, in abandoned buildings and under highway overpasses. The number of homeless people in the United States has hit a record 653,000, a 12 percent increase over the prior year and an all-time record. This year, the number of homeless people in America was greater than the entire population of Vermont or Wyoming. These figures come from the annual “point-in-time survey” of the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), released earlier this month. But even these figures are likely an underestimation. A 2017 report from the National Law Center on Homelessness & Poverty noted that a previous study using “administrative data collected from homeless services” estimated that the annual number of homeless people in the US is “2.5 to 10.2 times greater than can be obtained using a point in time count.” Notable findings from the latest HUD survey include:

• Homelessness among families with children increased by 15.5 percent.
• California, home to the most billionaires in the US, at 186, also has the highest homeless population, at 181,399.
• Nearly one in six homeless people, or more than 98,000, were between 55 and 64, while another 39,700 were over the age of 64.
• Among homeless adults over 55, 46 percent were living in unsheltered areas “not meant for human habitation.”

Living on the streets is an increasingly deadly proposition for hundreds of thousands of people. A study released this year on housing status associated with rates and causes of sudden death in San Francisco found that homeless Americans were “16 times more likely to die suddenly than their peers,” outside of drug overdoses. As more Americans than ever are living on the streets and millions more are one calamity away from joining them, the ultra-wealthy have never had it so good. As of November 2023, lobbying group Americans For Tax Fairness found that the collective wealth of 741 billionaires in the United States had grown to $5.2 trillion as of last month, “the highest amount ever recorded” according to the group. . Despite posturing as friends of the working class, President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party have continued many of the same billionaire-friendly social and tax policies that were promoted under the Trump administration. Biden has also overseen the elimination of virtually every pandemic era social program, including:

• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) eviction moratorium, expanded and enhanced unemployment benefits, and the child tax credit. The Eviction Lab at Princeton University has tracked over one million evictions filed from December 2022 through November 2023 in just 34 cities, including 75,704 in just the last month.
• The great “unwinding” of Medicaid enrollment has led to at least 13,379,000 enrollees losing coverage. Texas has seen the most people lose coverage, with 1.7 million dis-enrolled, followed by Florida, with 1.1 million and California with over 930,000.
• After a three-and-a-half-year pandemic pause, Biden has overseen the resumption of federal student loan repayments for 43 million student loan borrowers, whose combined total debt stands at $1.7 trillion. Last week, the US Department of Education confirmed that nearly nine million borrowers, or nearly 40 percent who had student loan payments due in October, missed their first payment and had not paid by mid-November.

While the Biden administration declares that there is “no money” to pay for basic social programs, Congress has just passed an $890 billion military budget for 2024, and the White House is demanding another $105 billion on top of that for the war in Ukraine and to fund Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 0.5% Year-over-year --From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 December As anticipated ahead of the holidays, U.S. hotel performance fell from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 December. ... 17-23 December 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):
• Occupancy: 43.9% (+0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$131.97 (-0.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$57.90 (-0.4%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. .The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will start increasing seasonally in the new year.

Las Vegas November 2023: Visitor Traffic Up 1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 3% --From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2023 Las Vegas Visitor StatisticsWith highlights including the SEMA tradeshow in the first week of the month and of course, the inaugural Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov 16‐18, Las Vegas tourism metrics exceeded last November across several categories, most notably with record ADR and RevPAR.Visitor volume exceeded 3.29M, ahead of last November by +0.8%, and convention attendance approached 600k, +2.7% YoY.Overall hotel occupancy was 81.9%, +0.7 pts YoY, as Weekend occupancy reached 88.7% (‐0.9 pts YoY) while Midweek occupancy exceeded last November by 1.4 pts to reach 78.9% for the month. Driven by strong rates during the dates of the F1 race, monthly ADR reached a record $249, +33.7% YoY and RevPAR exceeded $204, +34.8% YoY.The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), and 2023 (red).Visitor traffic was up 0.8% compared to last November. Visitor traffic was down 6.2% compared to the same month in 2019. The second graph shows convention traffiConvention traffic was up 2.7% compared to November 2022, and down 0.8% compared to November 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 218,000 --The DOL reported:In the week ending December 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 1revised 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Continuing Jobless Claims Hover Near Two-Year Highs At End 2023 -- The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 206k to 218k in the week ending 12/23 (just off 2023 lows)... California (estimated), Missouri, and NewJersey saw the biggest weekly jump in initial claims while Texas (estimated) saw the biggest decline... Continuing claims rose modestly from 1.861 million Americans to 1.875 million (still below the 1.9mm Maginot Line, but basically at the highest in two years)... Source: Bloomberg Additionally, Goldman believes that persistent seasonal distortions more than explain the 218k increase in continuing claims since early September, and expect those distortions to boost the level of continuing claims by an additional 100k by March. However, if the massive loosening of financial conditions is any signal, continuing claims are about to plunge (4 week lagged continuing claims track US FCI)..

US Beer Industry Faces "Five-Alarm Fire" As Sales Plunge To 25-Year Low - The American beer industry is facing a "five-alarm fire," Craig Purser, president of the National Beer Wholesalers Association, warned in a speech to wholesalers at a convention in October. Purser issued his warning at a time when the popularity of craft beer and hard seltzers had peaked. Consumer demand has shifted more towards canned cocktails and nonalcoholic beers. Additionally, Generation Z consumes less alcohol than any other generation, favoring spirits like vodka and tequila over beer. Moreover, souring long-term beer trends have been compounded by the nationwide implosion in Bud Light's demand. Anheuser-Busch's decision to feature trans-influencer Dylan Mulvaney in their April campaign has been one of the worst marketing disasters in a generation. Starting with new data from Beer Marketer's Insights, an industry analysis firm. They noted overall beer shipments in the US have gone flat, down 5% in the first nine months of the year, reaching their lowest point in a quarter century. Graph Source: The Wall Street JournalA recent survey released by MRI-Simmons has revealed a mega trend in the beer industry that shows Gen-Zers are simply consuming less alcohol than any other generation in the US. About 58% of legal drinking-age respondents said they had drunk alcohol in the past six months. Among them, 87% consumed spirits, while 56% had beer. A recent note by TD Cowen analyst Vivien Azer explained one of the factors leading to the demise of beer. She noted that states that have legalized recreational or medicinal marijuana saw shifts in consumer behaviors from alcohol to cannabis. Besides the beer industry losing its youngest customers, trans-influencer Mulvaney dropped a 'woke nuke' on Bud Light in that infamous and cringy April 1 TikTok ad campaign. Eight months later, the Bud Light boycott continued, as new data from Nielsen shows for the four weeks ending December 9 that retail-store sales of the beer plunged 28% compared with the same period last yea

Democratic Mayors Of New York, Chicago, Denver Plead For Help As Migrant Storm Worsens The Democratic mayors of three sanctuary cities, Chicago, New York City, and Denver, warned their metro areas are quickly approaching a breaking point due to the ongoing surge of illegals bussed up from the southern border this year. "We cannot allow buses with people needing our help to arrive without warning at any hour of day and night," NYC Mayor Adams said during a virtual news conference with Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Denver Mayor Mike Johnston. Adams warned: "For many months, we were able to keep the visualization of this crisis from hitting our streets, but we have reached a breaking point." "We are no longer able to do that because of the volume and numbers," he added. Mayor Eric Adams says that quality of life in NYC will continue to decline because of the illegals:"For many months we were able to keep visualization of this crisis from hitting our streets… But we have reached a breaking point. We are no longer able to do that." pic.twitter.com/53u6JogwKO— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) December 27, 2023In an executive order, Adams has now requested all charter bus companies to provide a 32-hour advance notice on the arrival of migrants.According to Adams' office, more than 7,000 illegals have entered the intake system in the last two weeks. The city estimates 157,600 illegals have arrived since late spring. In Chicago, another progressive metro area that once welcomed illegals with open arms, Mayor Johnson warned, "We have reached a critical point in this mission that absent real, significant intervention immediately, our local economies are not designed and built to respond to this type of crisis," adding "We are literally building a system as we go along." Adams' and Johnson's complaints about the migrant crisis were similar to those of Mayor Mike Johnston of Denver. He said, "We, at this point now, have had more migrant arrivals in our city than any city in America per capita." In a press release, the mayors called the influx of migrants in their cities a "humanitarian crisis" and urged "all levels of government and our federal partners" to provide assistance to ensure migrants "are treated with dignity and humanity." The trio of mayors blamed the migrant crisis on Texas Governor Greg Abbott, indicating Abbott "triples down on efforts to use asylum seekers as political pawns." However, the mayors, for good reason and likely fear of retribution, entirely omit that the Biden administration's disastrous open southern border policies are at the center of what sparked the invasion of millions of migrants (and individuals on the FBI's terror watch list) from all over the world into the US ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle. The mayors even left out how the Biden administration unleashed a misinformation campaign against taxpayers, claiming the border was "secure."

Chicago City Council Blocks Effort To Allow Citizens To Vote On Sanctuary City Status - by Jonathan Turley - When my family and I were driving back from Chicago, a vote of the city council was revealed that perfectly captured the hypocrisy and politics surrounding undocumented migrants in major cities. The council voted down an effort to allow voters to decide on whether Chicago should remain a sanctuary city. The measure was defeated 16-31. During our visit, there were distribution areas of undocumented families near my mother’s house on the Northside. There were also a large number of tents now near the park for the burgeoning homeless population. What is striking about the vote is the contrast to the prior adoption of sanctuary city measures. Starting under Mayor Harold Washington, the city council was eager to vote on measures heralding its status as a sanctuary city and calling on migrants to come to the city. Mayor Rahm Emanuel reaffirmed Chicago’s status as a haven for immigrants fearing deportation and encouraged them to view Chicago as a protected zone: “You are safe in Chicago. You are secure in Chicago. And you are supported in Chicago. This is a city of inclusion.”It was a major article of faith on the left to pass legislation (as the city did) to obstruct federal deportation efforts while declaring the city open for migrants. Such virtue signaling was wildly popular. Then migrants started to show up in large numbers. While the city has only received a small percentage of the migrants as opposed to smaller cities along the border, Mayor Brandon Johnson (who also once proclaimed his own pro-immigrant stance) is denouncing both the Texas and federal governments for increasing numbers of migrants in Chicago. In the meantime, protests are growing over migrant camps and construction plans. This puts liberal politicians in a bind. They do not want to take the heat by rescinding years of sanctuary city policies while not ticking off voters who are upset with the rising costs and impact on the city. The solution was to block any effort to give the citizens a chance to voice their view of these policies in defeating the resolution of Alderman Anthony Beale (9th) and Raymond Lopez (15th). Notably, much of the protests have come from traditionally black precincts where locals are fed up with the increasingly crowded conditions for schools and diversion of resources. Yet, eight alderman for those precincts voted to kill the proposal. It appears that consulting the voters was not a good option for these politicians. Democracy is only useful for certain tasks, particularly when the outcome is likely to be a rejection of long-held policies. Polls indicate that the majority of Chicagoans oppose the sanctuary city policies. Nationally, some polls show 80 percent of voters oppose sanctuary city policies.

Illegal Immigrants With Anchor Babies Using Up More Welfare Than American Citizens: Report - Households that are headed by illegal immigrants and have U.S.-born children are more likely to use welfare than are homes led by U.S.-born individuals, according to a recent report by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS). At least 59.4 percent of illegal immigrant-led homes use one or more welfare programs, compared with 39 percent of households headed by people born in the United States, according to the Dec. 19 report.High rates of welfare use among illegal immigrants “primarily reflect their generally lower education levels and their resulting low-incomes, coupled with the large share who have U.S.-born children who are eligible for all welfare programs from birth,” the report reads.“More than half of all illegal immigrant households have one or more U.S.-born children.”Children born to illegal immigrants in the United States, also known as "anchor babies,' are considered to have automatic birthright citizenship even though the U.S. Supreme Court hasn't explicitly ruled on the matter. Illegal immigrants can't access most welfare programs, a restriction that eases for their children who are born in the country.“The American welfare system is designed in large part to help low-income families with children, which describes a large share of immigrants,” CIS states in the report.A dozen states offer Medicaid to all low-income children regardless of immigration status. Such children also have access to various government food and meal programs.Programs such as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, the Women, Infants, and Children nutrition program, free or subsidized lunch and breakfast for students, and Medicaid for children (Children's Health Insurance Program) were “explicitly created for minors,” the report states. The CIS report is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). According to data from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), the total number of U.S.-born children of illegal aliens in the United States as of June stood at 5.78 million, a population more than two times that of Chicago.FAIR estimates that “illegal aliens and their U.S.-born children impose a net annual cost of $150.6 billion on American taxpayers as of the beginning of 2023.” Over the past five years, the annual cost has risen by almost $35 billion.Multiple GOP members have taken a strong stance against birthright citizenship. In 2018, former President Donald Trump said he would remove birthright citizenship via executive order, which didn't happen.In his 2024 campaign, President Trump has reiterated his position on the matter. In a May video, President Trump promised to sign an executive order on day one of his second term to solve the issue.Such an order would end the “unfair practice known as birth tourism, where hundreds of thousands of people from all over the planet squat in hotels for their last few weeks of pregnancy to illegitimately and illegally obtain U.S. citizenship for the child, often to later exploit chain migration to jump the line and get green cards for themselves and their family members.”

Democrats Rob Youth Of Future As Inner City Education Implodes -Progressives often pride themselves as the sole party focused on education, particularly in inner cities, and frequently criticize conservatives for being 'heartless' towards the future of young people. While Democrats advocate for unprecedented education funding, they tend to overlook actual performance metrics in inner-city public schools and label anyone 'racist' who even dares to question sliding test scores. In the case of Baltimore City Public Schools, the country's fourth most funded school system, investigative journalist Chris Papst of Fox45 News' Project Baltimore has been on a six-year crusade against corruption at the highest level in the school system, some of which includes a possible citywide grade scandal and coverup of test scores - all of which implies those running the show are more interested in their salaries than students' futures. NEWS: @BaltCitySchools has a $1.7B budget. It spends more than $22k per student. Yet, nearly TWO-THIRDS of all city schools received the LOWEST possible ratings from the state this year. School CEO, who’s entering her 8th year, says she’s “working on it”. The latest data Papst has found should be absolutely shocking to residents and parents of the school system, along with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, and question why those in the school system and City Hall continue to rob the future of inner-city students. According to new data obtained by Papst and his team, nearly 65% of Baltimore City's 148 rated schools earned one or two stars, the lowest possible rating, from the Maryland State Department of Education. For some context, in surrounding counties, Baltimore County only received 27.6% of schools that received one and two-star schools. Next was Anne Arundel County, with 11.2%, 4% in Howard County, and just 2.7% in Carroll County. Meanwhile, Baltimore City Schools had a $1.7 billion budget this year to educate 75,811 students, or about $22,424 per student, one of the highest amounts per student for a large school city nationwide. Despite high spending, nearly two-thirds of all schools had the lowest performance ratings in the state. Other data shows chronic absenteeism across the school system jumped 2.5x since 2016. These numbers out of Baltimore indicate a broader education decline nationwide - conveniently blamed on Covid. Source: AXIOS This evidence suggests that Democrats have destroyed public education in inner cities. Maybe residents are catching on to the failures... Boycott Baltimore City Schools?

Kansas School Approves 'Satan Club' Over Objections Of Students, Parents --“High School Satan Club” will now be included among the extracurricular offerings at Olathe Northwest High School in Kansas after the school district gave the greenlight for its creation. The club’s approval comes amid growing opposition from other students and parents with concerns about kids being encouraged to worship Satan.A petition to stop the club had garnered more than 7,800 signatures at the time of publishing.“Recently, I discovered that there are plans to establish a Satan worship/ Satan Templist Club at Olathe Northwest Highschool. This deeply troubles me and many others in our community as we believe that schools should be places of education and growth, not platforms for satanic indoctrination or controversial practices,” Olathe Northwest student Drew McDonald wrote in creating the petition.“We urge the relevant authorities in Olathe, KS—school administrators, district officials, and local representatives—to reconsider this decision. We believe it is not in the best interest of our children or community.” Some signers pointed to their Christian beliefs as their reason for opposing the club, while others cited general moral concerns. Still, some acknowledged that the club’s existence was likely protected by the First Amendment.“Seems we lost this round and I don’t agree with it, but consider this: It’s within their First Amendment rights in our own Constitution for them to assemble,” local parent Gregory Austin wrote.“Other school districts have lost this battle in court. I think it’s better to have ‘no’ religious group on school property than this.” Erin Schulte, assistant director of communications for Olathe Public Schools, told The Epoch Times that the school district approved the club after finding the applicants had met all necessary criteria, including the support of 10 interested students. Applicants were also required to explain how the group would differ from existing clubs and what it would bring to the school. Ms. Schulte also pointed to the federal Equal Access Act as justification for the school district’s decision. The law prohibits schools from denying students equal access to extracurricular groups based on religious, political, philosophical, or other speech. Under its provisions, if a school allows one non-academic group to meet on school premises outside of school hours, it is required to allow other, similar groups.

School District-Approved 'Satan Club' Sparks Backlash --- A public high school in Kansas has approved creation of a student-launched Satan Club, an after-school group affiliated with The Satanic Temple (TST). A spokesperson with Olathe Northwest High School, for grades nine through 12 in the southwest Kansas City suburbs, told Fox 4 News on Monday that the club "met the criteria to establish a student-initiated club and is now recognized as a student-initiated club." An application for the club was first submitted in mid-December, according to the report. The Satan Club has sparked controversy at Olathe Public Schools, which faced pushback from parents and students aiming to block the club from gaining approval. A petition urging school administrators to reject the club's application was created on December 12 by Drew McDonald, who described themselves as a "concerned student from Olathe." As of Wednesday, nearly 8,000 people have signed. The petition's goal is set at 10,000. "Satanism has a strong history of persecution and violence towards the church and those who believe in God," the petition reads. "Whether you believe in God, are a Christian, Catholic, Mormon, Hindu, Buddhist or even atheist you should see that ending this club is not just because it opposes Christianity but because what they stand for and the actions they will make are wrong and immoral. This isn't an argument over religion and Christianity but of right and wrong." Other people who oppose the club's existence expressed outrage over social media. Kansas City blogger "Tony's Kansas City" wrote on his blog site Tuesday that the club "serves as a sign of the times.""It turns out, we didn't learn anything from Christmas," read the post. "Here's a senior high school prank that serves as a sign of the times and stark reminder regarding the decline of American public education that has now extended beyond the urban core and currently threatens suburban institutions as well."Users on the platform X, formerly known as Twitter, also expressed concern, including a user by the name J M, who posted Tuesday, "who in their right mind would allow their kid to join a satan club?"A fellow X user, Eugene Patrickson, said that they would "like to know if the students who are members of this group celebrated Christmas yesterday and accepted presents."

Ohio’s Republican governor vetoes ban on gender-affirming care for minors -- Ohio’s Republican Gov. Mike DeWine has vetoed the state’s proposed ban on gender-affirming health care for transgender minors, telling reporters Friday that such a ban would do more harm than good.DeWine is only the second Republican governor to veto such a measure. The first was former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), who vetoed the nation’s first gender-affirming health care ban in 2021.House Bill 68 also sought to bar transgender women and girls from competing on female school sports teams.DeWine on Friday said he had spent the last two weeks since House Bill 68 was delivered to him traveling the state on a “fact-finding mission” that included talks with medical professionals and families with transgender children.He also spoke to opponents of treatments including puberty blockers, hormone replacement therapy and surgery, he said.“These are truly complex issues, and reasonable people draw vastly different conclusions,” DeWine said during a press conference on Friday. “This bill would impact a very small number of Ohio’s children, but for those children who face gender dysphoria, and for their families, the consequences of this could not be more profound.”“Ultimately, I believe this is about protecting human life,” DeWine said. “Many parents have told me that their child would not have survived — would be dead today — if they had not received the treatment they received from one of Ohio’s children’s hospitals.”“I’ve also been told by those who are now grown adults that, but for this care, they would have taken their lives when they were teenagers,” he said.“I cannot sign this bill as is currently written,” DeWine said, “and just a few minutes ago, I vetoed the bill.”Ohio Republicans, who overwhelmingly voted in favor of the bill, hold supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature and are likely to vote to override DeWine’s veto. If an override attempt is successful, health care providers in Ohio will be barred from both administering gender-affirming care to minors and engaging in conduct that “aids or abets” in the administering of care. Mental health professionals will be unable to diagnose or treat a minor with a “gender-related condition” without consent from the minor’s parents.

University porn firing is a reminder: Your employer can fire you for doing legal things -- In the United States, some constitutional free speech protections will keep you out of jail but might not keep you from being unemployed. That's the complicated dynamic at play right now in a high-profile university firing over pornography.The University of Wisconsin Board of Regents has ousted Joe Gow as UW-La Crosse chancellor, citing pornography he appeared in. He has expressed dismay, suggesting his situation should be covered by free speech protections.In an interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, part of the USA TODAY Network, Gow acknowledged appearing in the sex videos with his wife. Going public has in part been an effort to raise free speech issues and see how his employer would respond.He said the board's decision to fire him after videos were found online stunned him. He will still remain as a tenured faculty member, albeit on administrative leave in the near future.“I thought at least the board, given their staunch support of free speech, would be a little more understanding,” he said. “But clearly that's not the case.”Gow's case, like every free speech case, is unique and likely to be a continuing controversy. Here's a look at a few key issues involved: The First Amendment protects speech about sex and sexuality, which applies to many forms of pornography, according to the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. However, court rulings have deemed “obscenity” as not protected within free speech.The Supreme Court has tried to define what is obscene, Geoffrey Stone, a law professor at the University of Chicago, wrote in an American Bar Associationarticle. In 1973, the court ruled that obscenity has no literary, artistic, political or scientific value and is produced entirely in the "prurient interest"(in other words: with the goal of turning readers on). The concept has come up regularly amid debates in recent years over whether certain books – namely those with LGBTQ+ themes – should be removed from K-12 classrooms.In short, free speech rules don't always apply to pornography in the U.S.Many American workers are subject to at-will employment, or the employers’ right to fire employees for some reason, or none at all, said Charlotte Garden, a law professor who's written about legal protections for employee speech. This includes what workers said, and what they didn’t say.People are regularly fired over controversial speech, often in educational settings. Recent high-profile examples include two employees who used pronouns in their email signatures at a Christian university in New York; aschool librarian accused of "unkind pushback" against former child actor and conservative Kirk Cameron; and a first-grade teacher who spoke out against her school district's decision to ban Miley Cyrus and Dolly Parton's song "Rainbowland" at a school concert.The case for whether speech is protected often comes down to whether that speech is a matter of public concern, Garden told USA TODAY in an interview. The adult movies Gow created with his wife very likely wouldn't meet that threshold, but the couple's books – written under pseudonyms and exploring sexuality through an intellectual lens – might count as such, Garden said. The vote to fire Gow was based on the videos.

Can colleges afford class-based affirmative action? Brookings, Philip Levine and Sarah Reber. The SCOTUS ruling left open the possibility that colleges could substitute class–based “affirmative action” for race-based affirmative action. --Last June’s Supreme Court decision in cases brought by Students for Fair Admissions ģSFFAĤ against Harvard College and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ģUNCĤ significantly curtailed colleges’ ability to consider race or ethnicity in admissions. However, the ruling left open the possibility that colleges could substitute class-based “affirmative action” for race-based affirmative action to maintain racial diversity, an idea that some have promoted (https://www.economist.com/open-future/2018/09/04/affirmative-actionshould-be-based-on-class-not-race) as a fairer alternative. After all, Black, Latino, and American Indian/Alaska Native ģAIANĤ students are over-represented among those growing up in lower-income families or who would be the first in their families to graduate from college (“first gen”). In this report, we use data from the 2015ĵ2016 National Postsecondary Student Aid Survey (https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2018/2018466.pdf) ģNPSASĤ to better understand the viability of using class-based affirmative action as a replacement for race-based affirmative action. Could such an approach maintain racial diversity? How much would it cost? Our simulations suggest a university policy providing a substantial “admissions bump” to lower-income applicants might help maintain racial and ethnic diversity at selective colleges but only if a large number of students were enrolled because of that advantage. Policies favoring first gen students or more modest policies favoring lower-income recipients would be less effective at doing so. These conclusions are based on our analysis of institutions that are moderately to extremely selective. 1 2 However, more selective institutions within that group will have even more difficulty maintaining racial diversity using class-based affirmative action. Critically, we show that admitting and enrolling more lower-income students would require a substantial increase in the financial aid budgets of selective colleges. These institutions use their own resources to provide financial aid for existing students, but that support is already inadequate to meet the financial need of students at many institutions. Collectively, selective institutions would need to double their institutional support for financial aid to meet the full financial need of students enrolled under the current system. A class-based affirmative action plan would entail enrolling many more lowerincome students, which would increase the need for financial aid further. Our simulations indicate that institutions would need to almost triple their spending on financial aid to meet all of the financial need of enrolled students under a strong class-based affirmative action policy. This may be an insurmountable hurdle to overcome, reducing the likelihood that lower-income students would be able to enroll even if admitted. Enrolling more lower-income and first-gen students is an important goal, separate from the impact on racial and ethnic diversity. Most selective colleges do not enroll many lower-income students , who offer unique and diverse perspectives that could enhance the educational experience of all students. Research also shows that lower-income students benefit more from attending selective colleges compared to their more-advantaged peers. Whether class-based affirmative action is pursued for its own sake, to maintain racial diversity, or a combination of the two, the implications for financial aid are considerable. It cannot be successful without 3 increasing financial aid budgets considerably. Overall, our analysis shows that selective colleges could use class-based affirmative action to make progress in maintaining racial diversity after the SFFA ruling, but it will be difficult to achieve. Ultimately, class-based affirmative action is considerably less efficient at achieving racial diversity than race-based affirmative action, and it cannot succeed without a considerable infusion of funding to help cover the greater need for financial aid. Perhaps a handful of institutions have endowments large enough to support the necessary increases in financial aid, but most do not. If selective colleges adopted class-based affirmative action policies aggressive enough to maintain racial diversity, many institutions would struggle to find the necessary funds to support more low-income students without threatening their academic mission. (#_ftnref2Ĥ

FTC sues largest Christian university in US for deceptive advertising -- The Federal Trade Commission announced Wednesday it has sued Grand Canyon University (GCU), becoming the second agency under the Biden administration to take action against the largest Christian school in the nation within the past few months in what the school says is a coordinated attack by multiple agencies against the institution.The FTC said in a press release it filed suit in federal court against GCU, its marketer Grand Canyon Education, Inc. and its president and CEO Brian Mueller, claiming the defendants used deceptive advertising and engaged in illegal telemarketing.The complaint says the Arizona-based school misled prospective doctoral students about the amount of time it would take to finish its accelerated program, deceptively marketed the school as a nonprofit, and illegally called prospective students who submitted their contact information on the school's website but requested not to be contacted."Grand Canyon deceived students by holding itself out as a non-profit institution and misrepresenting the costs and number of courses required to earn doctoral degrees," Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in a statement. "We will continue to aggressively pursue those who seek to take advantage of students."The complaint accuses GCU of violating the FTC Act and the Telemarketing Sale Rules, and is asking the U.S. District Court in Arizona to force GCU to compensate consumers for the alleged violations and to prohibit the university "from further violations of the law."

The University of Phoenixification of Elite Education- Maureen Tkacik = Most viewers probably thought it was an inspired bit of absurdity when, during the opening sketch of a recent Saturday Night Live satirizing the now-infamous college presidents hearing on antisemitism, Kenan Thompson swooped in to offer his perspective on the matter from his post as “president of the University of Phoenix.” (“Lady, we’ll offer a class on anything … the only two mandatory classes at the University of Phoenix are ‘How to log into the University of Phoenix online’ and ‘How to set up autopay.’”)But a leading orchestrator of the entire media frenzy around antisemitism in the Ivy League, Apollo Global Management co-founder Marc Rowan, is literally theCEO of the parent company of the University of Phoenix. Apollo acquired the scandal-plagued diploma mill’s parent company, confusingly also named Apollo, in 2017. And while Rowan has been mounting what the American Association of University Professors has termed a “hostile takeover” of his alma mater in Philadelphia, he’s been simultaneously orchestrating an equally alarming plot to dump University of Phoenix onto the University of Idaho, in a scheme that could have an even more devastating impact on American higher education.Under Apollo’s stewardship, the University of Phoenix shut down 80 associate degree programs and closed, sold, or made plans to shutter all but one of its more than 200 physical campuses and mini-campuses worldwide. It whittled its full-time faculty to just 127 full-time instructors for 96,000 students. It agreed to pay Donald Trump’s Federal Trade Commission $191 million to settle a deceptive practices lawsuit, and was the subject of more than 3,000 consumer complaints to the FTC between 2017 and the beginning of 2021, along with over 73,000 borrower defense to repayment claims to the Department of Education. It appointed its third president in a single year after the DOE launched an investigation into the role of its newly appointed president in the collapse of his last online university. And it reported a six-year graduation rate of 26.2 percent.But for Rowan, the University of Phoenix overhaul was a glorious success. The Apollo fund that acquired the online school extracted about $1 billion in dividends during the first four years of its investment, despite the unprecedented tens of billions of dollars in student loans the Biden administration has canceled on behalf of students of virtually every shady for-profit online college other than University of Phoenix. Apollo then brokered the aforementioned lucrative agreement to double its initial investment by selling the school to the University of Idaho, though state attorney general Raúl Labrador has sued to block that purchase, arguing the deal was hashed out insecret meetings that violated state law. (The university has demanded $2,400from a local education website to comply with open records requests it filed to learn more about the transaction.)The media depiction of the “Ivy League antisemitism crisis” as an in-crowd battle between Harvard and its obnoxious billionaire alumnus Bill Ackman is fun, because it pits the nation’s most insufferable institution against a self-aggrandizing Wall Street jerk with a million Twitter followers, and because both sides have emerged looking worse for wear. The fraud has showcased theself-enrichment Ackman and other well-heeled Ivy League alumni derive from their tax-deductible donations, the scandal has shone a spotlight on thepossible shoddiness of Harvard president Claudine Gay’s scholarship, and The New York Times has looked deservedly ridiculous for devoting ten reporters to covering the university’s palace intrigue during the deadliest war in recent memory.But Marc Rowan’s lower-key machinations are far more important, for three reasons. First, Rowan is far more powerful than Ackman; Apollo boasts a half-trillion dollars in assets under management to Ackman’s $18.5 billion, giving its CEO almost incomprehensible power over the nation’s economy and its political system. Second, the institutions over which Rowan has steamrolled are far more representative of what higher education in America actually looks like. The University of Phoenix, for one, is the single greatest producer of student debt by a hefty margin—its former students having accumulated a staggering $35 billion worth of it as of 2014. It’s an exemplar of the debt-financed American higher-education system, freed of the cobblestone autumn-leaf college brochure bullshit and distilled to its nakedly predatory essence.

Trump University 2.0 by Joel Eissenberg - Remember the wildly successful Trump University? Me neither. But elect Donald, and he promises to build on that success by stealing the endowments of major universities to create a national diploma mill.
Click the link. Trump University 2.0

Student debt fight ends year on disappointing note - Student loan borrowers began 2023 with money and hope. The year will end with resumed monthly payments and only limited debt relief. At the start of the year, student loans remained in their pandemic pause, as President Biden’s debt relief plan headed to the Supreme Court. But the administration decided that once the Supreme Court ruled on the legality of his loan forgiveness plan — regardless of the outcome — borrowers should have to restart their payments. In June, the conservative-majority court ruled Biden’s plan to forgive at least $10,000 for all student loan borrowers was illegal. “I think the low point is definitely the loss at the Supreme Court and, with that, payments coming back on. I think that’s actually in some ways equally as bad to see [loans turned back on] after we fought so long to keep them off,” said Natalia Abrams at the Student Debt Crisis Center (SDCC). The White House moved forward from the loss by announcing a new income-driven repayment (IDR) plan and intentions to work toward an alternative route for widespread debt relief. At the end of 2022, making good on its campaign promise of giving at least $10,000 in loan forgiveness to all borrowers, the Biden administration opened up debt relief applications. Multiple lawsuits were filed soon after, and two made it to the Supreme Court. In the first half of the year, borrowers anxiously waited for the court to announce its decision on the case, which came June 30. “The Secretary asserts that the HEROES Act grants him the authority to cancel $430 billion of student loan principal. It does not,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion. The case turned a tide, and student loan borrowers went from hopeful to panicked, as they had 60 days after the ruling to prepare for the restart of interest and student loan payments.

Quality of care declines after private equity takes over hospitals, finds nationwide analysis -- Patients are more likely to fall, get new infections, or experience other forms of harm during their stay in a hospital after it is acquired by a private equity firm, according to a new study led by researchers at Harvard Medical School. The research, published Dec. 26 in JAMA, is among a handful of recent nationwide analyses of how private equity takeovers affect the quality of patient care in hospitals. The increases are seen in conditions or outcomes deemed preventable and are key measures of hospital safety and quality. The findings come amid growing concerns about private equity's increasing role in U.S. health care, with $1 trillion invested in the past decade."We had previously found that private equity acquisitions led to higher charges, prices, and societal spending," said Zirui Song, associate professor of health care policy and medicine in the Blavatnik Institute and director of research in the Center for Primary Care at HMS. "Now, we're learning that there are also downstream concerns for the clinical quality of care delivered to hospital patients."The researchers said the findings are alarming because they may reflect bottom-line incentives overshadowing patient care and safety."Hospital success is measured not only in dollars or the number of patients who pass through the doors, but also in lives saved, complication rates, patient satisfaction, and a number of other quality and safety metrics," said HMS research fellow Sneha Kannan, a physician in the Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care at Massachusetts General Hospital. "We need to make sure we fully understand the costs and benefits of this prominent new force in health care."The economic repercussions of private equity acquisitions are not a new concern. Previous studies by Song and co-author Joseph Dov Bruch of the University of Chicago indicate that this high-debt, for-profit financial model of hospital ownership may also lead to increased spending and other economic implications. Many have expressed concerns about hospital bankruptcies under private equity ownership that often leave underserved populations with limited access to care. But up until now, the effects of private equity deals on patient health and quality of care have remained understudied and poorly understood.

While private equity profits, a hospital slowly dies --If you want to know what happens after a private equity firm plunders one of its hospital acquisitions, visit Delaware County in southeast Pennsylvania. Earlier this month, Crozer Health laid off 215 workers, or 4% of the workforce, at its four hospitals in the suburban Philadelphia county amid reports it is late paying its bills, including rents for its hospitals.Crozer’s owner is a privately held company, Prospect Medical Holdings, headquartered in Los Angeles. Prospect Medical’s purchase of Crozer in 2016 was financed by Leonard Green & Partners, an L.A.-based private equity firm with over $70 billion worth of assets that siphoned nearly a half billion dollars from Crozer in the last half decade. In addition to the new layoffs, Crozer announced plans to end drug and alcohol treatment at its 313-bed flagship teaching hospital in Chester, a small city in Delaware County some 20 miles from downtown Philadelphia. Chester is over 70% Black, with high poverty, unemployment, and substance abuse rates after decades of deindustrialization.Those moves came after two years of Crozer cutting services. Last fall, the Pennsylvania Department of Health cited inadequate staffing at Crozer’s facilities and ordered it to close its emergency room at 168-bed Delaware County Memorial Hospital in Upper Darby, the second largest hospital in its system. Before the closure order, Crozer had shuttered the facility’s maternity ward, a severe blow in a small city of 85,000 that’s over a third Black and where 75 languages are spoken in the public schools.Faced with the Pennsylvania Health Department order, Crozer CEO Anthony Esposito—the fifth chief executive officer installed by Prospect Medical in three years—ordered the shutdown of all in-patient care at the hospital, leaving only its outpatient services. The county immediately challenged the move in court as a violation of the original 2016 agreement when Prospect Medical bought the previously non-profit Crozer-Keystone Health System. That agreement included Prospect Medical’s promise to keep all hospitals in the system open for at least 10 years.“For decades, Delaware County Memorial has been the hospital of choice for that community,” said Frances Sheehan, president of the Foundation for Delaware County, which provides grants and services to community organizations promoting public health. “People walked to the hospital. They walked to their doctor appointments. Having an E.R. up and running was critically important for an aging population. This was a major, major blow to the community.”Prospect Medical refused to comment for this story through a spokesperson at Blanco + Hopkins & Associates, LLC, a Los Angeles-based public relations firm representing the company.Cutbacks and closures at community hospitals in low- and moderate-income communities have become routine in the United States. Most are in large cities, inner-ring suburbs, and rural areas with older populations, stagnant incomes, and rising healthcare needs. Many of these non-profits are called safety net hospitals because most of their clientele are on Medicare and Medicaid, uninsured, or struggling financially.Some safety net hospitals survive by merging into larger non-profit systems. But a growing number of them have been gobbled up by private equity firms, often interested in making outsized profits and cashing in on their investment quickly rather than maintaining healthcare services in underserved communities. An estimated 38% of the nation’s 5,200 community hospitals are now under private ownership compared to 20% a decade ago.Prospect Medical’s acquisition of Crozer with financial backing by Leonard Green offers a textbook example of how private equity extracts wealth from struggling healthcare systems. It often does so in ways that leave the healthcare systems more vulnerable to the financial headwinds they already face. When the 2016 acquisition of what was then known as Crozer-Keystone Health System was announced, Prospect assumed $260 million in debt and pension liabilities for the 6,000-employee company, which had posted operating losses of over $40 million in the previous two years. Prospect promised state regulators that it would keep its four hospitals open for at least 10 years and its ancillary facilities open for at least five. “Prospect will make significant capital investments in the Crozer-Keystone system, increasing the ability of Crozer-Keystone facilities to modernize, attract more patients and expand services,” a spokesman told The Delaware County Daily Times at the time.But the financial engineers at Leonard Green, which held the majority equity stake in Prospect Medical, had other ideas. In July 2019, Prospect executed a $1.55 billion sale/leaseback deal with Medical Properties Trust, a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama. The arrangement covered Prospect Medical’s hospitals in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and California. Prospect’s statement to Medical Properties Trust investors when the deal was announced echoed its claims made earlier to state and local officials in Pennsylvania. “This transaction allows us to unlock the value of those assets and focus our efforts on our core business – operating hospitals and implementing our coordinated-regional-care population health model,” said Samuel S. Lee, CEO of Prospect Medical. “Having Medical Properties Trust available for long-term capital provides us with a significant and experienced potential source of funding for improvements to our existing facilities.” While Prospect Medical did use some of the proceeds to pay down debt, almost half of the rest—$457 million, according to an analysis by the public-interest group Private Equity Stakeholder Project—was used to pay dividends to Prospect’s shareholders at Leonard Green. Meanwhile, individual hospitals in Prospect’s system were saddled with huge rents with built-in annual rent increases for buildings they used to own. In other words, they were saddled with new debt.In Crozer’s case, the rents totaled $35 million a year, according to Sheehan of the Foundation for Delaware County. That’s a significant burden for a system with $660 million in revenue in 2021 at its two major hospitals, according to filings with the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council. To put that $35 million in perspective, it is more than enough to pay the annual salaries of the 215 people laid off this month. Prospect Medical has stopped making those payments. In its annual report, Medical Properties Trust, the new owner, which is publicly traded and has to report financial data to the Securities and Exchange Commission, revealed it has written off $283 million in losses for bad debt real estate, including $171 million for the Pennsylvania properties rented by Crozer.

Georgia offered Medicaid with a work requirement. Few have signed up.--A GOP experiment forcing low-income people to work to qualify for public health insurance benefits is stumbling in Georgia.The state’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, expected 31,000 Georgians to sign up in the first year of the program, which started in July. Through four months, only 1,800 people enrolled — and critics blame the paltry expansion on an overly complex program with too many hurdles for people to clear.“With such low enrollment numbers [in Georgia], it does feel a bit like that,” said Chris Pope, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank. “It’s a mountain of paperwork, and it’s burdensome for people who are in a tough spot.”Democrats have long tried to persuade red states to expand the federal Medicaid program and bring health insurance to more of their most vulnerable residents. The Biden administration sweetened the pot in 2021 with additional federal money, but GOP officials, including Kemp, have been reluctant to take the offer unless they can tie benefits to employment.The slow uptake in the Georgia program has done little to change the state’s double-digit uninsured rate, one of the highest in the U.S. And it could dissuade other red states that have yet to expand Medicaid — including nearby Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina — from following in Georgia’s footsteps even as they come under increasing pressure from the health care industry to expand the government-run health insurance program.Some in Georgia, however, maintain it’s too early to draw conclusions about the program and that many people may still be unaware the program exists.

Trial finds 5-day antibiotic course noninferior to 10 days for pediatric UTIs A randomized trial conducted in Italy showed that a 5-day course of antibiotics in children with febrile urinary tract infection (fUTI) was noninferior to 10 days, researchers reported this week in Pediatrics. In the multicenter trial, a team led by investigators from the University of Trieste randomly assigned children aged 3 months to 5 years with noncomplicated fUTI to receive oral amoxicillin-clavulanate in three divided doses for 5 days or the standard 10 days. The primary endpoint was the recurrence of a UTI within 30 days after treatment. Secondary endpoints included clinical recovery at end of treatment, adverse drug-related events, and resistance to amoxicillin-clavulanate or other antibiotics when a recurrent UTI occurred. The noninferiority threshold was 5 percentage points. Of the 175 children assessed for eligibility, 142 underwent randomization, with 72 assigned to the 5-day arm and 70 to the 10-day arm. The recurrence rate of all UTIs (febrile and non-febrile) within 30 days from the end of therapy was 2.8% in the short group and 14.3% in the standard group, for a between-group difference of –11.51 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI], –20.52 to –2.47). The recurrence rate of fUTI within 30 days from the end of therapy was 1.4% in the short group and 5.7% in the standard group (difference, –4.33 percentage points; 95% CI, –10.40 to 1.75). Resolution of signs and symptoms occurred in 97.2% of cases in the short group, and 92.9% in the standard group. The frequency of adverse events was 1.4% in the short group, with none reported in the standard group. The emergence of antibiotic resistance to amoxicillin-clavulanate or other antibiotics did not differ between the two treatment groups.

JN.1 becomes dominant COVID-19 strain across the US, fueling winter wave of mass infection - On Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance variant proportions, with data obtained over the past two weeks, showing that the Omicron JN.1 subvariant accounted for 44.2 percent of all sequenced cases and is now dominant across the US. Variant trackers and data scientists agree that the rise of JN.1 to dominance in the US will only fuel the country’s eighth wave of mass infection in the weeks ahead. This could soon cause the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases of any wave so far, excluding only the initial Omicron wave exactly two years ago. It is not yet clear how high JN.1 will push hospitalization and death rates, but data from the “bellwether state” of New York are very concerning, with hospitalizations rising 36 percent over the past week after JN.1 became dominant.JN.1 is now the dominant variant globally, causing spikes in infections, hospitalizations and now deaths in a growing number of countries. Some European countries, including Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark, have recorded all-time highs in COVID-19 wastewater levels, surpassing even the peaks reached during the first Omicron wave two years ago.The case of Singapore is important to highlight as it provides a window into what the US and other regions can expect in the course of just a few weeks. The strain quickly rose in prominence and dominated other strains of SARS-CoV-2 by early December.Singapore’s Ministry of Health has reported a steady rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations due to JN.1, despite having a population that has been highly vaccinated and boosted. The number of COVID-19 cases has more than quadrupled in the past month, while hospitalizations have jumped from 136 in late November to 560 in their latest update. Public health authorities have issued pleas for citizens to don masks again and are reviewing health system utilization to assure bed capacity remains available for the infected.In Malaysia, the government has reactivated the Heightened Alert System to better respond to developments. Cases have nearly doubled since early December. Thailand and Indonesia are also issuing similar advisories to their respective population. On Tuesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) had to acknowledge the threat of JN.1 by designating it as its own “variant of interest” independent of its parent BA.2.86 (nicknamed “Pirola”). In its press release, the organization recommended that all people “Wear a mask when in crowded, enclosed, or poorly ventilated areas, and keep a safe distance from others, as feasible” and “improve ventilation.”Significantly, for healthcare workers and facilities, the WHO advises “universal masking in health facilities, as well as appropriate masking, respirators and other PPE for health workers caring for suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients.” They also suggest “improve ventilation in health facilities.”

Respiratory virus levels climb as JN.1 dominates COVID detections --- Respiratory illness activity is elevated or increasing across most of the United States, and JN.1 is now the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its latest updates just before Christmas.In its tracking of three main viruses that drive visits to health providers for symptoms such as fever and sore throat, the CDC said respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity remains elevated, especially for young children. Meanwhile, COVID-19 activity is increasing in many parts of the country, as is seasonal flu, though hospital bed occupancy and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity for all patients remains stable.The CDC's two main severity markers rose compared to the previous week, with hospitalizations up 10.4% and deaths up 3.4%. States in the Midwest and Northeast have numerous counties at the medium level for COVID hospital admissions, with some counties in those regions listed at the high level.Nationally, only 3% of deaths were due to COVID during the reporting period, with higher levels reported by a few states: Kentucky, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Maryland, and Massachusetts. The CDC characterized the COVID death trend as stable.The CDC's early indicators also reflected rises, with emergency department (ED) visits up 6.6% compared to the previous week and test positivity showing a slight rise. The marker rose to the substantial level in Iowa, and Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana were at the moderate level.ED visits for COVID were highest in infants and older adults but were also elevated in young children, the CDC said in its latest respiratory virus snapshot.Nationally, test positivity was 11.7% and was highest in the lower Midwest, followed by the rest of the Midwest, the Northeast, and the Southwest.The proportion of JN.1 viruses over the past 2 weeks was up sharply, rising from 21.3% to 44.2%, the CDC said in its latest estimates, putting it far above the next most common variant, HV.1. In a separate update on JN.1, the CDC said it is also seeing an increasing share of infections caused by JN.1 in travelers, wastewater, and most world regions."JN.1's continued growth suggests that the variant is either more transmissible or better at evading our immune systems than other circulating variants. It is too early to know whether or to what extent JN.1 will cause an increase in infections or hospitalizations," the CDC said, adding that existing vaccines, tests, and treatments still work against JN.1.JN.1, under the BA.2.86 umbrella, has the L455S mutation in the spike protein, which is thought to increase its immune-evasion capabilities. Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated JN.1 as its own variant of interest, following a rapid increase in proportions at the global level.Both the WHO and CDC have said JN.1 doesn't seem to pose a bigger public health risk than other variants, though it could trigger fresh COVID surges at a time when other respiratory viruses are circulating.Meanwhile, flu activity continues to rise in all regions of the United States, the CDC said in its latest update. The highest levels have been in the southern tier of states, with Louisiana and South Carolina now listed at the top of the CDC's "very high" category, which stands out as blue among varying shades of red in the high and very high categories.The 2009 H1N1 virus is still the predominant strain, but the CDC said it has also received reports of H3N2 and influenza B viruses.ED visits for flu are on the rise, especially in school-age children, and test positivity for the virus also continues to increase, at 12.8% at clinical labs. Hospitalizations for flu continue an upward trend, affecting all age-groups, with the highest rates in seniors.No new pediatric flu deaths were reported last week, keeping the season's total at 14.In its monthly profile of COVID activity, the WHO said cases have risen 52% over the last 28 days, while deaths declined by 8%. However, the WHO emphasized that few countries are testing and reporting cases and that trends aren't likely to accurately reflect the global picture.At the regional level, four areas reported rises in new COVID cases, most dramatically in South East Asia, followed by Africa, the Western Pacific, and Europe. Deaths were up in South East Asia, as well as—to a lesser degree—Europe.Of the few countries that regularly report hospital data, the data suggest hospitalizations were up 23% and a 51% rise in new ICU admissions for COVID.

US COVID markers rise as flu activity intensifies - Respiratory illness activity markers rose across the nation last week, with the Midwest and Northeast seeing the biggest COVID impacts and the South experiencing the highest flu activity, according to updates today from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In its respiratory virus snapshot, the group said the data cover the week ending December 23 but should be interpreted with caution due to possible reporting delays during the holidays. With both COVID and flu on the rise, the CDC also said respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) illness levels, along with hospitalizations, remain elevated across most of the country, though activity is declining in some areas. The CDC's severity markers show more rises, with hospitalizations up 16.7% and deaths up 10% compared to the previous week. About 29,000 people were admitted to the hospital for COVID in the week leading up to Christmas, with several counties in the Midwest and Northeast in the moderate range, with some in the two areas listed as high. COVID was responsible for 3.3% of all deaths last week, with higher levels reported in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast. Early indicators also continue to rise, with emergency department (ED) visits up 12% from a week ago. Test positivity at the national level rose from 0.7% to 12.7% and, like other metrics, is higher in the Midwest and Northeast. Wastewater tracking from Biobot also shows the highest virus levels in the Midwest and Northeast and reflects that nationally, the level is approaching the level seen this time last year. The CDC's wastewater COVID tracking dashboard puts the national level at very high, with the highest levels in the Midwest. Meanwhile, in its latest weekly FluView update, the CDC reported another steady rise in illness indicators, with most of the Southeast now at the highest level of flulike illness activity. New Mexico is also experiencing flu activity at the highest level.Test positivity for flu at clinical labs is above 20% for four regions, areas that roughly span the Mountain West, the South Central, the Southeast, and the Middle Atlantic.Outpatient visits for flulike illness rose to 6.1%, up from 5.1% the previous week. The level has been above the national baseline for 8 consecutive weeks, and all 10 regions are above their regional baselines. Levels are highest in children as old as 4 years old, followed by young people ages 5 to 24.Flu hospitalizations continue to rise, and one of the CDC's hospital surveillance systems showed that about 14,700 people were admitted to the hospital for flu last week. Levels were highest in seniors, followed by adults ages 50 to 64 and children as old as 4.Seven more pediatric flu deaths for flu were reported, six of them for the current flu season, raising the total to 20. The current-season deaths all occurred in December. Four were linked to influenza A, and of subtyped viruses, both were 2009 H1N1, which continues to be the nation's dominant strain.Across all age-groups, flu made up 0.5% of all the nation's deaths last week, up from 0.3% the previous week.

Everyone seems to be sick in California. Here's why - Los Angeles Times -- Respiratory illness season is in full swing in California and across much of the nation.In Los Angeles County, about 23% of people participating in a weekly text-message-based survey reported having a cough or shortness of breath for the week that ended Dec. 10, higher than the total reported during a late summer peak in respiratory illnesses, when 21% said they had those symptoms. Early summer brought a lull, with only 10% of survey respondents saying they had a cough or shortness of breath.Meanwhile, coronavirus levels in wastewater in L.A. County are at their highest since summer.Statewide, the level of flu-like illness — which includes non-flu viruses such as the coronavirus — is considered high, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Nationally, COVID-19 remains the primary cause of new respiratory hospitalizations and deaths, resulting in about 1,000 fatalities a week.Despite the chorus of coughs, the trend in terms of levels of virus in sewage and hospitalizations is milder than last year at this time. And the health infrastructure in Los Angeles and Orange counties, as well as the San Francisco Bay Area, are holding up well, with no sign yet of a major increase of patients needing intensive care.With COVID-19, “it’s continuing to go up, but it’s not as dramatic as, certainly, even two winters ago or even last winter, yet. So time will tell if the numbers that we see continue to go up,” said Dr. Nancy Gin, regional medical director of quality and clinical analysis for Kaiser Permanente Southern California. “It’s not causing intensive care units to be full of COVID-related illness, which is good.”Still, Gin and other doctors say there is reason to be on guard; they’re urging people to get their COVID-19 and flu vaccinations and asking sick people to say home and healthy people to avoid ill people. The latest ascendant coronavirus variant, JN.1, is particularly contagious and is spreading more widely. And with COVID-19 and flu still rising, and respiratory syncytial virus plateauing at a high level, it’s unclear how bad this year’s respiratory season will get.“We have all these respiratory viruses afoot, with RSV that hasn’t really started to go down,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious-disease expert. “With flu, it’s just rising now. And then with COVID ... that’s increasing, for sure.”And some parts of California are being hit harder than others. Fresno County’s Department of Public Health says its hospitals are seeing a sharp rise in respiratory illnesses and reporting “severely impacted conditions ... due to a historic number of admitted patients and people accessing the emergency department with non-urgent medical problems.” The Sacramento area and the Eastern Sierra are at the “medium” level of coronavirus-positive hospital admissions, according to the CDC, while the rest of California’s counties are in the “low” level.“ Coronavirus levels in Los Angeles County’s sewage were at 39% of last winter’s peak — the region’s last major spike — according to data for the week ending Dec. 9, the most recent available. The level has reached its highest point since summer began, and is now of “medium concern.” The rate at which coronavirus tests are coming back positive also continues to rise. About 11% of specimens tested at sentinel surveillance labs in L.A. County were positive for the week that ended Dec. 16, up from 10% the week prior.In the San Francisco Bay Area, coronavirus levels in the largest sewershed in Santa Clara County have reached their highest point since last winter’s peak, at 72%, according to the local public health department.At UC San Francisco’s hospitals, coronavirus-positive hospitalizations have been increasing and remain high, but are lower than this time last year, Chin-Hong said. As of Wednesday, there were 27 coronavirus-positive patients at those hospitals; by contrast, in mid-December, there were fewer than 20.Across California, new weekly coronavirus-positive hospital admissions are at their highest levels since last winter. For the week ending Dec. 16, there were 2,924 new coronavirus-positive hospital admissions, up nearly 50% from a month earlier, according to data posted by the CDC.This season has not — at this point — eclipsed last year’s COVID-19 levels in terms of the number of weekly hospitalizations. And doctors in Los Angeles County say they’re not seeing COVID-19 patients inundating intensive care units, although urgent care clinics are quite busy.Flu cases also continue to rise in California. According to the state Department of Public Health, there were 1,007 new flu hospital admissions for the week that ended Dec. 9, up 20% over the prior week.The latest flu hospitalization level is about one-third the peak of last winter’s.In Los Angeles County, about 18% of specimens tested at sentinel surveillance labs came back positive for the flu, compared with 14% from the previous week.RSV can cause severe illness and death in babies and older people. It has plateaued at a relatively high rate in L.A. County. For the week that ended Dec. 16, about 12.3% of specimens tested at surveillance labs came back positive for RSV, about the same as the prior week’s reading of 12.5%.The positive test rate for RSV in in the county has been mostly between 12% and 13% since early November, with a one-week peak that reached 15%. That represents a particularly active RSV season.Since the 2017–18 season, there have been just two other seasons in which the positive rate has been higher: last year’s terrible season, which plateaued at a peak rate of about 20%, and the 2018–19 season, which leveled off at a maximum of about 15%. There are other viruses also causing illness, including rhinoviruses and enteroviruses. Most people who get these viruses develop a common cold. In Los Angeles County, 15% of surveillance-lab-tested specimens are coming back positive for rhinoviruses or enteroviruses. In Los Angeles County, for the week that ended Dec. 17, about 5% of emergency room visits were classified as related to the coronavirus, just enough to warrant a medium level of concern. That’s not as bad as it was last year at this time, when roughly 13% of emergency room visits were classified as related to the coronavirus. Levels of flu-like illness — which include non-flu illnesses such as COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus or RSV — are considered high in California, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Doctors believe more people became infected with respiratory viruses over the Christmas holiday.

A new coronavirus variant may be behind California’s COVID rise --Coronavirus transmission is once again spiking in California entering the winter holiday season — and a new subvariant may be partly to blame, officials say.This latest subvariant, JN.1, is now estimated to account for roughly 44% of COVID-19 cases nationally, according to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.That share is twice as high as any other identified subvariant, and a startling rise from the prior estimate of 21% for the two-week period that ended Dec. 9. “We’re also seeing an increasing share of infections caused by JN.1 in travelers, wastewater and most regions around the globe,” the CDC said in a statement. “JN.1’s continued growth suggests that the variant is either more transmissible or better at evading our immune systems than other circulating variants.” The World Health Organization last week classified JN.1 as a “variant of interest,” meaning it has potentially concerning characteristics — such as an ability to more easily infect individuals or avoid the protection afforded by vaccines and therapeutics.Current vaccines, anti-COVID drugs and tests continue to work well against JN.1, the CDC said.JN.1 is an offshoot of another Omicron subvariant, BA.2.86, which was unofficially nicknamed Pirola. Pirola was already deemed worrisome because of its unusually high number of mutations, which might empower it to more easily infect those who haven’t received a recent COVID-19 vaccination. JN.1 has an additional mutation.Experts say all those mutations mean it’s likely that people who have been relying on older vaccinations received more than a year ago, or a previous infection earlier this year, may not be protected enough to avoid a new run-in with the coronavirus this winter.“It is possible that at least part of the local increase in transmission is driven by new COVID-19 strains gaining dominance in Los Angeles County, including JN.1,” the county Department of Public Health said in a statement.Doctors say the rise of JN.1 is another reason why people — especially those who are older — should get the latest COVID-19 vaccination that became available in September. Coronavirus transmission and COVID-19 hospitalizations, though undoubtedly on the rise, aren’t at the levels seen at this same time last year.But the increase has been sharp. For the week ending Dec. 16, there were 2,924 new coronavirus-positive hospital admissions in California, up nearly 50% from a month earlier.And it’s not just COVID-19. Clinics in Southern California report being busy with other viral illnesses, too — namely flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.“Definitely, we’re seeing more people that are coming through the door, especially the younger and the older,” said Dr. Daisy Dodd, an infectious disease specialist with Kaiser Permanente Orange County. People with underlying medical issues, such as diabetes and asthma, she added, are “much more symptomatic.”In L.A. County, about 18% of specimens tested at sentinel labs are coming back positive for flu, as are 12% of specimens tested for RSV and 11% tested for the coronavirus. The test positive rates of flu and the coronavirus are continuing to grow, while the rate for RSV has plateaued at a high level.Coronavirus levels recorded in L.A. County’s wastewater have doubled over the last month. For the week ending Dec. 9, the most recent data available, viral levels in sewage were at 39% of the peak seen last winter, the most recent major spike for the region.But the increase in infections, to this point, has not translated into a surge of people needing intensive care, Dodd said.At UC San Francisco, there are now 27 coronavirus-positive patients who are currently hospitalized, up from around 20 a few weeks ago. Earlier in November, that census was in the 10s, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist there.“That is probably fueled by this new variant, JN.1,” Chin-Hong said. “It’s not that the variant causes people to be sicker. It’s just that if a lot of people are infected, a proportion of them will go to the hospital. And the more people that get infected, that number is higher.”

JN.1 variant now behind nearly half of US COVID cases - As Americans travel far and wide to see family and friends this holiday season, a new COVID variant named JN.1 has become dominant across the country.A descendant of the variant BA.2.86, JN.1 now accounts for 44 percent of COVID cases, up from roughly 7 percent in late November, the latestdata from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows."Variants take some time to get going," Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told the New York Times. "Then they speed up, they spread widely, and just when they're doing that, after several months, a new variant crops up."The holiday season is likely fueling the rise of JN.1, he added."When people are gathered inside close to each other, having parties and traveling and the like, those are the kind of circumstances where all respiratory viruses, including JN.1, have opportunities to spread," Schaffner said.Still, the speed at which the JN.1 variant has spread this month suggests it may spread more easily and be better at evading people's immune systems than other circulating variants, according to a recent CDC report."It is too early to know whether or to what extent JN.1 will cause an increase in infections or hospitalizations," the CDC said in its report.Luckily, JN.1 does not seem to be causing more severe illness yet, Schaffner noted.The other good news? The updated COVID vaccines that were released in Septemberproduce antibodies that work against JN.1, which is distantly related to the XBB.1.5 variant the tweaked vaccines target. “For those who were recently infected or boosted, the cross-protection against JN.1 should be decent, based on our laboratory studies," Dr. David Ho, a virologist at Columbia University in New York City, told the Times. Ho led research published on the preprint server bioRxiv in early December that showed the latest COVID vaccines produce a strong antibody response to JN.1. Despite the fact that JN.1 may not cause more severe disease than other variants, hospitalizations have started creeping up recently, the Times reported. For the week of Dec. 10, there were just under 26,000 COVID-linked hospitalizations, a 10 percent increase from about 23,000 hospitalizations the week before. However, those numbers are still far lower than they were during during the peak of the tripledemic last winter, when COVID, flu and R.S.V. cases all surged simultaneously. JN.1 will most likely remain the dominant COVID variant through spring, Schaffner said.

“FLip” mutations of SARS-COV-2 may be evading immunity and leading to a surge in COVID cases, suggests researchers - The omicron sub-variant JN.1, featuring the L455S “FLip” spike protein mutation, is expected to become the predominant strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus worldwide. JN.1 emerged from the BA.2.86 lineage, rapidly surpassing its predecessors and related strains due to the mutation’s impact on the spike protein. JN.1 is expected to make up a significant proportion of SARS-CoV-2 variants, raising concerns about its transmissibility and immune evasion. While JN.1’s prevalence increases, its specific impact on infection rates or severity remains uncertain. ACE2 is a protein found in the epithelial cells in different parts of the body, such as the lungs, heart, and kidneys.SARS-CoV-2 virus binds to ACE2 as an entry point through the virus’ spike-like protein on its surface. Mutations like L455S/F alter the spike protein, potentially affecting ACE2 receptor binding. This could impact transmissibility, immune evasion, and the virus’s entry point into cells. Dominance doesn’t inherently imply increased danger; viruses naturally mutate. However, the L455S/F mutations may enhance transmissibility. JN.1 displays heightened transmissibility and potential ability to evade immunity conferred by vaccines, observed in breakthrough infections and reinfections. Another omicron subvariant, EG.5, remains the most reported variant of interest globally but is declining in occurrence.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 with phone app data offers insights into proximity and duration risk factors --Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a meeting of his Likud party on Monday that he’s working to bring about the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and looking for countries willing to “absorb” them,” Israel Hayom reported.“Our problem is countries that are ready to absorb them, and we are working on it,” Netanyahu said. His comments are the latest sign that Israel’s ultimate goal is to cleanse Gaza of its 2.3 million Palestinian residents.Netanyahu said the world is “already discussing the possibilities of voluntary immigration” and pointed to comments from former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who is currently running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Haley said last week that Palestinians in Gaza should migrate to “pro-Hamas” countries.Netanyahu said that a team must be set up to “ensure that those who want to leave Gaza to a third country can do so. It needs to be settled. It has strategic importance for the day after the war.”Last month, Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel penned an op-ed for The Jerusalem Post calling for the “voluntary resettlement” of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to other countries around the world. Two members of the Israeli Knesset wrote a similar op-ed for The Wall Street Journal that said Western nations should accept Palestinian refugees.While Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have framed the plan as “voluntary resettlement,” Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza is making much of the enclave uninhabitable. About 90% of Gaza’s population has already been internally displaced. A leaked document drafted by Gamliel’s Intelligence Ministry said pushing all 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza into Egypt was the ideal scenario for the Israeli government. But Egypt has refused to take in any Palestinian refugees, forcing Israeli officials to look elsewhere to facilitate their planned ethnic cleansing.Duration of exposure played the most critical role in predicting transmission. Short exposures demonstrated a linear growth in the probability of reported transmission at a rate of 1.1% per hour. After a few hours, this increase in the transmission probability slowed as the likelihood of infection continued to climb.

COVID antiviral uptake low among eligible Americans -A new report published in Open Forum Infectious Diseases demonstrates that, despite the proven effectiveness of Paxlovid and molnupiravir against severe COVID-19 outcomes, uptake of these two antivirals remains low among Americans with COVID.The report focused on antiviral uptake among vaccinated Americans who contracted COVID-19 between December 2021 and October 2022. Uptake of oral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV/r or Paxlovid) and molnupiravir (MOV) increased as the study period progressed, but was low overall.Paxlovid uptake was 13.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.9% to 15.2%) among 1,594 participants and MOV uptake was 1.4% (95% CI, 0.8% to 2.1%) among 1,398 participants. Paxlovid use increased over time, from 1.9% during December 2021 to March 2022 to 25.3% between August and October 2022.Over the course of the study, most participants were eligible for antiviral use (NMV/r: 85%; MOV: 84%), with uptake higher among those 65 and older. Use of Paxlovid was 30.2% (95% CI, 22.2% to 38.2%) among adults 65 and older, and was also higher among those who self-reported a history of long COVID."There are a number of factors that may contribute to low antiviral uptake among those including low awareness of antivirals, healthcare disparities, and barriers to healthcare and prescription access," the authors said. "A population-representative study in NYC found that 44% of adults were unaware of antivirals."

Less than 5% of US preschool cohort hospitalized for COVID were fully vaccinated, study finds -- Only 4.5% of a cohort of pediatric COVID-19 patients admitted to US hospitals during the period of Omicron predominance had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccine series, and 7.0% had started but didn't finish the series, The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal reports.The study team, led by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers, enrolled 597 vaccine-eligible COVID-19 inpatients aged 8 months to 4 years at 28 hospitals participating in the Overcoming COVID-19 network from September 2022 to May 2023. A total of 62.1% of patients were aged 8 months to 1 year, and 37.9% were aged 2 to 4 years. A complete vaccination series was defined as at least two Moderna or three Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 doses received at least 14 days before hospitalization. The vast majority of patients (88.4%) were unvaccinated. Most children (74.1%) who completed the primary COVID-19 vaccine series were White. Completion of the vaccine series was low in all regions but highest in the Northeast (12.2%) and lowest in the South (1.5%).In total, 4.5% of the children had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination series, and 7.0% started but did not complete their primary series. Of the 528 unvaccinated patients, 48.0% were previously healthy, 3 needed extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), and 1 died.Most critically ill children were unvaccinated or hadn't completed their primary series, including 94.3% of children admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), 88.2% who received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and 92.0% with life-threatening infections. This included all three patients who required ECMO and the 29 who required vasopressors to maintain their blood pressure.All six critically ill patients who completed their vaccine series and were hospitalized had one or more chronic respiratory or neurologic conditions, including four who had both.

Increased incidence of invasive S aureus seen more in Black patients during COVID - A population-based study in Atlanta highlights the impact of community COVID-19 incidence on racial disparities in invasive Staphylococcus aureus infections, researchers reported this week in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology. Using data from the Georgia Emerging Infections Program, which conducts active population-based surveillance for invasive S aureus infections in the eight-county Atlanta metropolitan area, researchers from Emory University estimated race- and ethnicity-specific incidence rates of S aureus and COVID-19 for mutually exclusive groups of Hispanic, Black, White, and other non-Hispanic groups.Their aim was to determine whether the well-documented racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19–related outcomes influenced invasive S aureus incidence, which is higher among Black patients than White patients.From March 2020 through December 2021, there were 4,062 4,062 invasive S aureus infections (including methicillin-resistant and methicillin-susceptible S aureus [MRSA and MSSA]) and 454,489 COVID-19 cases across all counties.While the correlation between county-level monthly COVID-19 incidence and invasive S aureus incidence was weak, it retained statistical significance among Black patients. The researchers estimated an 8% increase in the rate of invasive S aureus incidence per quartile increase in county-specific COVID-19, but for Black patients, the increase was 9%, compared with a 5% increase among White patients. Hospital-onset cases increased most, at 16% per quartile increase in COVID-19."Our data expand on previous findings and suggest that community COVID-19 infection burden is associated [with] not only hospital-onset MRSA bloodstream infection risk but also MSSA bloodstream infection risk, as well as community-onset S. aureus bloodstream infection risk," the study authors wrote. "Moreover, this increased rate affected Black residents ∼60% more than White residents."

Study shows COVID leaves brain injury markers in blood A study published in Nature Communications last week describes how markers of brain injury are present in the blood months after COVID-19 infection, despite normal inflammation blood tests.The findings, which come from research teams at the University of Liverpool and King’s College London, add to the complicated picture of how COVID-19 can cause a range of neurologic symptoms."During the COVID-19 pandemic it became apparent that neurological complications were occurring in a significant proportion of hospitalized patients and even in those with mild COVID-19 infection," Benedict Michael, PhD, principal investigator, said in a study press release.The present study looked at blood samples from 800 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from across England and Wales, half of whom had new neurologic conditions. Researchers looked at blood levels of serum inflammatory proteins (cytokines), antibodies, and brain (neuroglial) injury proteins.The authors found that in the early convalescent phase (less than 6 weeks post-infection), markers were elevated in participants recovering from COVID-19, with no differences between those who had or had not experienced a neurologic complication. After 6 weeks, elevated markers were seen only in participants who suffered neurologic symptoms in the acute phase of illness."These brain injury markers are associated with dysregulated systemic innate and adaptive immune responses in the acute phase of the disease, and suggest that these may represent targets for therapy," the authors said.

Study finds similar brain effects after severe COVID, other critical illnesses - A study involving hospitalized adults today in JAMA Network Open finds that severe COVID-19 negatively affects brain health, but no more so than pneumonia, heart attack, or other critical illnesses.Copenhagen University Hospital researchers in Denmark compared the cognitive, psychiatric, and neurologic test results of 120 COVID-19 patients with those of 100 matched healthy controls and 125 patients hospitalized for other critical diseases at two academic hospitals in 2020 or 2021. Face-to-face follow-up was conducted after an average of 18 months. Average participant age was 61 to 66 years.Overall cognition was evaluated with the Screen for Cognitive Impairment in Psychiatry (SCIP) and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA).At 18 months, COVID-19 patients had worse cognition than healthy controls (estimated average SCIP score, 59.0 vs 68.8; estimated average MoCA score, 26.5 vs 28.2) but not controls hospitalized for other conditions (average SCIP score, 61.6; average MoCA score, 27.2). A total of 38.3% of 120 COVID-19 patients had MoCA scores below 26.COVID-19 patients also performed worse than healthy controls on all other psychiatric and neurologic tests, but except for executive dysfunction (Trail Making Test Part B relative mean difference [RMD], 1.15), their brain health wasn't more impaired than that of hospitalized controls.Patients with COVID-19 had a higher rate of psychiatric and neurologic symptoms than hospitalized controls (96.7% vs 83.2%), but after adjusting for multiple testing, only loss of smell was significantly more common at 18 months.

600-plus covid cases for the second day -- Covid cases continued to rise, with India reporting 628 fresh cases and one death in the past 24 hours, the Union health ministry said on Monday. The active caseload of covid-19 infections rose from 3,742 on Sunday to 4,054 showed ministry data.A death was reported from Kerala, bringing the national fatality toll to 5,33,334. Other states are also seeing a surge in fresh covid cases.On Sunday, Maharashtra reported 50 new cases, according to a daily bulletin from health department.According to data from the Maharashtra government, out of the fresh cases, nine were diagnosed with JN.1, bringing the total infections linked to the sub-variant in the state to 10—five from Thane city, two from Pune city, and one each from Akola city, rural areas of Pune district, and Sindhudurg district. One of the Pune residents had recently travelled to the US.As of 24 December , 63 JN.1 covid cases have been reported in India, including 34 cases in Goa, nine in Maharashtra, eight in Karnataka, six in Kerala, four in Tamil Nadu and two in Telangana, according to the Union health ministry.Rajasthan reported 11 fresh covid cases, including seven in Jaipur, and one each in Alwar, Dausa, Kota and Sawai Madhopur districts.On Sunday, the health ministry had reported a single-day increase of 656 new covid-19 cases in India, and one death.The World Health Organization has issued a statement urging South-East Asian countries to enhance surveillance, and for individuals to adopt protective measures in view of rising numbers of respiratory diseases, including covid and its new sub-variant JN.1, along with influenza.“The covid-19 virus continues to evolve, change, and circulate in all countries globally. While current evidence suggests the additional public health risk posed by JN.1 is low we must continue to track the evolution of the virus to tailor our response. For this, countries must strengthen surveillance and sequencing, ensuring sharing of data," said Dr. Poonam Khetrapal Singh, the regional director of WHO South-East Asia.According to the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, covid symptoms are very similar to seasonal influenza, making it difficult to distinguish the JN.1 from other sub-variants of the Omicron strain, such as fever, nasal discharge and cough. It said there could be occasional diarrhoea, severe body aches, but usually the patients are recovering within 2-5 days.JN.1 is a variant that stands out with an additional spike protein, enhancing its transmissibility compared to the long-existing BA.2.86. Emerging as a variant of the Omicron strain of SARS-CoV-2, JN.1 is a highly mutated strain branching from the BA.2.86 variant, also known as Pirola.Initially identified in India in August, the BA.2.86 lineage carries over 30 mutations in the spike protein. While both JN.1 and BA.2.86 share similar characteristics, a key distinction is the extra spike protein in JN.1.In May, WHO had declared that covid is no longer a global health emergency. Regarding the JN.1 variant, WHO classified it as a “variant of interest" due to its increasing spread, but said that it poses low global public threat.

Studies: More US adults roll up sleeves for flu than COVID, RSV vaccines A trio of new studies provide a snapshot of US adult vaccine uptake and views, with two showing the highest coverage for flu, followed by COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and one confirming greater willingness to get a flu shot than a COVID-19 shot.Late last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) probed national uptake of the three vaccines among residents of nursing homes that reported data to the National Healthcare Safety Network in fall 2023."Nursing home residents are at risk for becoming infected with and experiencing severe complications from respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)," the investigators wrote."In 2023, the Food and Drug Administration approved the first two RSV vaccines for adults aged ≥60 years, making the 2023–2024 respiratory virus season the first in which vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and RSV are simultaneously available in the United States," they added.As of December 10, 33.1% of nursing home residents had received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, and 72.0% and 9.8% living at facilities that report flu and RSV uptake, respectively, had received those vaccines.COVID-19 vaccine coverage ranged from 22.5% in Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas to 42.9% in Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Rates were highest (38.5%) in the least socially vulnerable counties and lowest (29.1%) in the most vulnerable. They were also higher in small nursing homes (37.3%) than in medium (32.3%) and large homes (32.2%).Flu vaccine uptake ranged from 64.3% in Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington to 79.9% in Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Flu vaccine coverage was greatest in the least socially vulnerable counties (73.7%) and lowest in the most socially vulnerable (70.9%). Rates were also higher in small nursing homes (77.4%) than in medium (72.2%) and large facilities (69.8%). Possible reasons for low vaccine demand include "vaccine fatigue," inaccurate health information, and vaccine hesitancy, especially in socially vulnerable areas, the authors said. "Lower coverage in areas with higher social vulnerability might be related to challenges to vaccine access and cost and payment barriers associated with COVID-19 vaccine commercialization," they wrote. For a second study in MMWR, CDC researchers parsed fall 2023 data from the National Immunization Survey-Adult COVID Module, a random phone survey of US adults used to track COVID-19, flu, and RSV coverage.By December 9, about 42.2% and 18.3% of adults reporting receiving a flu and COVID-19 shot, respectively, while 17.0% of older adults and 21.4% of those with chronic conditions said they were vaccinated against RSV. About 27% and 41% of adults and 53% of older adults said they would definitely, probably, or were unsure whether they would receive the three vaccines.The proportion of unvaccinated adults who said they definitely would get vaccinated fell as uptake rose, from 33.2% to 9.4% for flu, and 28.2% to 14.1% for COVID-19. The decline was less for RSV vaccine, from 20.9% to 14.1%.The percentage of unvaccinated adults who reported they probably or definitely wouldn't get vaccinated was lowest for RSV, while the proportion of those who were unvaccinated and said they probably would get vaccinated or were unsure was highest for RSV.Immunization rates for all vaccines was lowest among uninsured respondents, while uptake and intent to be vaccinated climbed with age and were higher among those living in urban and suburban areas than in rural areas.Flu vaccine uptake was higher among White and Asian adults than among most other racial groups, but the proportion reporting that they probably or definitely wouldn't get vaccinated against flu was comparable among White and Black adults (both 32.2%) and lower among Hispanic respondents (24.0%). Updated COVID-19 and RSV vaccine uptake was higher among White people than among most other racial groups, but a higher proportion of White adults said they probably or definitely wouldn't receive a COVID-19 vaccine (43.2%) than Black (31.3%) and Hispanic (34.7%) adults. Last week in JAMA Network Open, a team led by Harvard researchers described the results of a probability-based survey of US adults conducted from July 7 to 16, 2023. The survey asked about perceptions of COVID-19 and flu vaccine effectiveness and safety, vaccination intentions, and reasons for hesitancy. In total, 42% and 40% of adults said that COVID-19 and flu vaccines, respectively, are very effective at preventing severe illness and hospitalization. A higher proportion indicated that flu vaccines are very safe (55%), compared with 41% for COVID-19 vaccines. Nearly half (49%) said they were very likely to get vaccinated against flu, compared with 36% who said they would receive a COVID-19 shot. Findings were similar among adults aged 50 and older. Relative to flu vaccine-hesitant adults, a larger share of COVID-19 vaccine–hesitant adults cited insufficient research, concerns about vaccine safety and effectiveness, the belief they were already protected through previous vaccination or infection, and distrust of government agencies and drug companies. Findings were similar among older adults.

Indonesia and Mauritania report vaccine-derived polio cases - Two countries reported new polio cases this week, including Mauritania, which reported its first circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) case of the year, according the latest weekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).Indonesia's patient is from Central Java province on the island of Java, and the illness marks the country's fourth such case of the year.Meanwhile, the cVDPV2 case from Mauritania was detected in the Nouakchott Nord region in the southwest of the country. The area includes the country's capital and largest city, Nouakchott

Americas and Europe cases fuel rise in mpox activity -- In its latest monthly update, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 906 new mpox cases from 26 countries in November, reflecting an increase of 26% compared to October. With nearly 300 cases, the United States reported the steepest rise in the Americas, followed by Portugal reporting 128 new cases, which makes Europe the region with the second highest number of cases. Singapore's cases increased, and though China's cases declined, the country continues to contribute to high case counts in the Western Pacific region. Africa reported a small decline, but the WHO said irregular reporting and high numbers of suspected cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) outbreak make it difficult to interpret the trend there."The constantly changing geographical distribution of the cases does not allow for an accurate prediction of the regional trends, but the continued high number of cases globally highlights the fact that this outbreak is not over, and the virus continues to find pockets of susceptible individuals," the WHO said. The group did not note any major changes in the epidemiology of the disease.

Spike in extensively drug-resistant Shigella cases reported in UK, Europe - Health officials from Europe and the United Kingdom are sounding the alarm about a multi-country outbreak of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Shigella infections.In the United Kingdom, XDR Shigella cases have risen by 53% in 2023, driven primarily by a cluster of 97 cases of an XDR strain of Shigella sonnei with non-susceptibility to penicillins, third-generation cephalosporins, aminoglycosides, tetracycline, sulphonamides, quinolones, and azithromycin (4 additional infections with the same strain were reported in late 2022). The cases have been reported across England, mainly in men who have sex with men (MSM), according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). Shigellosis is a highly infectious gastrointestinal condition caused by one of the four species of Shigella bacteria: S sonnei, S flexneri, S boydii, or S dysenteriae.Symptoms range from mild diarrhea to severe dysentery, with more severe cases requiring antibiotics. Although shigellosis is commonly associated with exposure to food or water that has been contaminated by human feces and is commonly mistaken for food poisoning, oral and anal sex has become a common mode of transmission, particularly among MSM.UKHSA officials say Shigella infections have been climbing since the end of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions in July 2021, and are now higher than they were pre-pandemic. While not all cases are antibiotic-resistant, the current XDR strain is one of two resistant strains that have been circulating in the United Kingdom since 2022."This is a concerning rise in cases of this antibiotic resistant strain, meaning treatment can be very difficult," UKHSA consultant medical microbiologist Gauri Godbole, MD, said in an agency news release last week. "One of the best ways to protect yourself and your partners is to practice good hygiene after sex." In a communicable diseases threat report published last week, officials from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said the cases reported in the UK belong to a cluster of XDR S sonneiinfections that have sickened MSM in the Netherlands (145 cases), Norway (2 cases), and Portugal (1 case). They warned that the strain will likely spread to other countries."Further cases are very likely to occur, particularly among MSM, not only in the affected countries but also in other Member States, given the interconnected nature of MSM sexual networks in Europe," the ECDC said. "It is also likely that cases may already be present in other Member States but have not yet been detected."The ECDC is encouraging Member states to increase awareness of the XDR Shigella strain among clinicians and microbiology laboratories and to ensure that antimicrobial susceptibility testing of Shigella is conducted for gastroenteritis cases in MSM to guide appropriate antibiotic treatment.

Study implicates hospital sinks as important source of resistant pathogen transmission --Hospital sinks contaminated with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) are a significant source of transmission to patients, Israeli researchers reported yesterday in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology. Because CPE has become widespread in Israeli hospitals, and the hospital environment—specifically sink traps and water drainage systems—has been increasingly recognized as a source of multidrug-resistant organism outbreaks in hospitals, researchers at Israel's Sheba Medical Center set out to assess the extent and persistence of sink-drain and sink-outlet contamination in their facility and trace the possible transmission to patients. From 2017 to 2019, they sampled 592 patient-room sinks in 34 departments and analyzed isolates from sinks and patients. A total of 144 (24%) of 592 sinks were contaminated with CPE in 25 of 34 departments, and repeated sampling showed that 52% to 100% were contaminated at least once during the sampling period. During the study period, 318 patients acquired CPE during their hospitalization, with Klebsiella pneumoniae (46%),Escherichia coli (23%), and Enterobacter spp. (23%) the most common species.In 127 (40%) of those patients, no index case was detected but a contaminated sink was identified with the same CPE strain. In 57 additional cases, researchers identified CPE-contaminated sinks with a different bacterial species than that acquired by the patient — but with the same carbapenemase gene (bla), which suggests the sink could have been the source of transmission. For 20 cases with an identical sink-patient strain, sink-to-patient transmission was assumed because the sink was contaminated before the patient was hospitalized, and the patient's initial screening for CPE was negative. Genomic sequencing of two sink-patient isolate pairs identified two plasmids that were nearly identical.During 2 years of follow-up, repeated sink sampling showed that contamination of sink traps with CPE was persistent.The study authors called the findings worrisome."This report adds to the accumulating data indicating the significant role of sinks in CPE transmission and suggests a paradigm change, in which infection control interventions to prevent CPE dissemination should focus on environmental control and appropriate behavior regarding the sink and its surroundings," they wrote.

Study: Hospitals owned by private equity firms see more adverse events - A new study published in JAMA suggests that US hospitals owned by private equity firms suffer more hospital-based adverse events, including falls, central line blood infections, and surgical-site infections.More than 200 US hospitals are run by such firms, which critics worry place profits and quick sales to liquidate debt above patient care.The study compared outcomes among 662,095 hospitalizations at 51 private equity–acquired hospitals and 4,160,720 hospitalizations at 259 matched control hospitals using 100% Medicare Part A claims data. Events were assessed 3 years before to 3 years after private equity acquisition.They found that Medicare beneficiaries admitted to private equity hospitals experienced a 25.4% increase in hospital-acquired conditions. This increase in hospital-acquired conditions was driven by a 27.3% increase in falls and a 37.7% increase in central line–associated bloodstream infections."Surgical site infections doubled from 10.8 to 21.6 per 10,000 hospitalizations at private equity hospitals despite an 8.1% reduction in surgical volume," the authors said. "Meanwhile, such infections decreased at control hospitals, though statistical precision of the between-group comparison was limited by the smaller sample size of surgical hospitalizations.” The authors said their findings validate concerns over private equity firms providing substandard patient care.

In Africa, high infection rates drive deaths from antimicrobial resistance -- Antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens were responsible for a quarter of a million deaths in Africa in 2019, an international team of researchers reported last week in The Lancet Global Health. Those 250,000 deaths were among the more than 1 million associated with antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the World Health Organization (WHO) African region in 2019, according to the study, the first to present regional- and country-level AMR estimates for the continent. The number of deaths associated with AMR exceeds that of two of Africa's leading infectious disease killers—HIV (639,544 deaths in 2019) and malaria (594,348). Although the analysis found that the fraction of infectious bacterial disease deaths in Africa associated with and attributable to AMR were the lowest of any WHO region, infection-related mortality rates were the highest, which the study authors say is a reflection of the continent's high infection rate."Despite the relatively low prevalence of resistance in the region, the sheer number of infections yields high AMR mortality," they wrote.The modeling study, conducted by a team led by researchers with the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the University of Oxford's Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, used data from a variety of sources to estimate deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with 12 major infectious syndromes, 23 bacterial pathogens, and 88 drug-pathogen combinations in the 47 countries of the WHO African region in 2019.As in the previous studies, the researchers calculated the AMR burden (deaths and DALYs) using an approach based on two counterfactual scenarios. To estimate deaths directly attributable to a drug-resistant bacterial infection, they considered a scenario in which those infections were replaced by antibiotic-susceptible infections. To estimate associated deaths—meaning deaths in which AMR may have played a role, but an underlying condition was also responsible—they considered a scenario in which resistant infections were replaced by no infection.Overall, the analysis estimated that 3.83 millions deaths in the WHO African region in 2019 involved an infection, and 1.86 million of those deaths involved both resistant and susceptible bacteria. Of these, 1.05 million were associated with AMR, and 250,000 were attributable to AMR.The four infectious syndromes with the largest fatal AMR burden were lower respiratory and thorax infections (521,000 AMR-associated deaths and 119,000 AMR-attributable deaths), bloodstream infections (236,000 AMR-associated deaths and 56,000 AMR-attributable deaths) intra-abdominal infections (106,000 AMR-associated deaths and 26,000 AMR-attributable deaths), and tuberculosis (42,000 AMR-associated deaths and 18,000 AMR-attributable deaths).Collectively, seven pathogens were responsible for 821,000 AMR-associated deaths in the region, with four pathogens each exceeding 100,000 deaths: Streptococcus pneumoniae (195,000 deaths), Klebsiella pneumoniae (184,000 deaths), Escherichia coli (147,000 deaths), and Staphylococcus aureus (136,000 deaths).

Argentina reports rare human Western equine encephalitis infection -Argentina has reported a rare human case of Western equine encephalitis (WEE), the first in more than two decades, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday. The announcement follows a recent warning from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) about the potential threat to human health following detections of WEE in horses in several Argentina locations as well as some sites in Uruguay. Birds are the main hosts of the virus, which can pass to horses and, occasionally, humans through infected mosquitoes. In humans, WEE infections range from the asymptomatic or moderate level to a severe form that includes aseptic meningitis and encephalitis. People who work or recreate outdoors in areas where the disease is endemic or outbreaks are occurring in animals are at higher risk of disease.Argentina's last cases occurred in 1982 and 1983 in equine outbreak settings. It reported an isolated case in 1996. The latest patient is man from Santa Fe province whose symptoms, such as headache, myalgia, dizziness, and fever, began on November 19. He was hospitalized on November 24 and was admitted to the intensive care unit and placed on mechanical ventilation during the 12-day stay. He was discharged to home monitoring on December 20. An investigation into the source of his illness found that the man was a rural worker in an area where horses had tested positive for WEE infection.

The link between climate change and a spate of rare disease outbreaks in 2023 -- A 16-month-old boy was playing in a splash pad at a country club in Little Rock, Arkansas, this summer when water containing a very rare and deadly brain-eating amoeba went up his nose. He died a few days later in the hospital. The toddler wasn’t the first person in the United States to contract the freshwater amoeba, Naegleria fowleri, this year. In February, a man in Florida diedafter rinsing his sinuses with unboiled water — the first Naegleria fowleri-linked death to occur in winter in the U.S. 2023 was also an active year for Vibrio vulnificus, a type of flesh-eating bacteria. There were 11 deaths connected to the bacteria in Florida, three deaths in North Carolina, and another three deathsin New York and Connecticut. Then there was the first-ever locally transmitted case of mosquito-borne dengue fever in Southern California in October, followed by another case a couple of weeks later. “These are broadly the patterns that we would expect,” said Rachel Baker, assistant professor of epidemiology, environment, and society at Brown University. “Things start moving northward, expand outside the tropics.” The number of outbreaks Americans see each year, said Colin Carlson, a global change biologist studying the relationship between global climate change, biodiversity loss, and emerging infectious diseases at Georgetown University, “is going to continue to increase.” That’s because climate change can have a profound effect on the factors that drive disease, such as temperature, extreme weather, and even human behavior. A 2021 study found water temperature was among the top environmental factors affecting the distribution and abundance of Naegleria fowleri, which thrives in water temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit but can also survive frigid winters by forming cysts in lake or pond sediment. The amoeba infects people when it enters the nasal canal and, from there, the brain. “As surface water temperatures increase with climate change, it is likely that this amoeba will pose a greater threat to human health,” the study said. Vibrio bacteria, which has been called the “microbial barometer of climate change,” is affected in a similar way. The ocean has absorbed the vast majority of human-caused warming over the past century and a half, and sea surface temperatures, especially along the nation’s coasts, are beginning to rise precipitously as a result. Studies that have mapped Vibrio vulnificus growth show the bacteria stretching northward along the eastern coastline of the U.S. in lockstep with rising temperatures. Hotter summers also lead to more people seeking bodies of water to cool off in, which may influence the number of human exposures to the bacteria, a study said. People get infected by consuming contaminated shellfish or exposing an open wound — no matter how small — to Vibrio-contaminated water. Studies show the species of mosquito that carries dengue, which is endemic in many parts of the Global South, is moving north into new territory as temperatures climb and flooding becomes more frequent and extreme. A study from 2019 warned that much of the southeastern U.S. is likely to become hospitable to dengue by 2050. . Valley fever, a fungal disease that can progress into a disfiguring and deadly illness, is spreading through a West that is drier and hotter than it used to be. The lone star tick, an aggressive hunter that often leaves the humans it bites with a life-long allergy to red meat, is expanding northward as winter temperatures grow milder and longer breeding seasons allow for a larger and more distributed tick population. The effect that rising temperatures have on these diseases doesn’t necessarily signal that every death linked to a brain-eating amoeba or Vibrio that occurred this year wouldn’t have happened in the absence of climate change — rare pathogens were claiming lives long before anthropogenic warming began altering the planet’s dynamics. Future analyses may look at the outbreaks that took place in 2023 individually to determine whether rising temperatures or some other climate change-related factor played a role. What is clear is that climate change is creating more opportunities for rare infectious diseases to crop up. Daniel R. Brooks, a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Toronto and author of a book on climate change and emerging diseases, calls this “pathogen pollution,” or “the accumulation of a lot of little emergences.”

Avian flu strikes more poultry flocks as WOAH weighs in on vaccination and trade -Highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks hit more poultry farms in the United States and abroad, putting pressure on the industry as H5N1 and related virus continue an unprecedented spread across multiple world regions.As more countries consider poultry vaccination to blunt the impact on the poultry sector, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) in a new policy brief said vaccination — when properly conducted and based in science — shouldn't be a barrier to trade.Over the past few weeks, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported more outbreaks in poultry in six states, including a commercial farm in Ohio's Hardin County that has 1.3 million layer pullets.Also, the virus turned up at more turkey farms in Minnesota and Michigan, and at a layer farm in California housing 709,000 birds.Elsewhere, South Dakota reported an outbreak at another gamebird producer, and Nebraska detected the virus in a backyard flock.Over the last 30 days, outbreaks have led to a loss of 13.2 million birds. Since February 2022, the H5N1 outbreaks and related culling operations have wiped out a record 79.3 million poultry across 47 states, according to APHIS. In related developments, APHIS reported two more detections in mammals. These are the first detections since September, when H5N1 was reported in seals from Washington. One involves the first known detection in a polar bear, which is from North Slope Borough, the northernmost county in the United States. The sample was collected on October 1, and H5N1 was confirmed on December 6. The other is an Abert's squirrel from Arizona's Navajo County. A sample collected on August 26 was confirmed as positive for H5N1 on December 13. The detection marks the nation's first known detection in squirrels, which as known to be omnivores. Over the last few days, four European countries reported more H5 and H5N1 detections in wild birds or poultry, according to notifications from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) Moldova reported five H5N1 detections in wild birds and an outbreak in poultry. Poland and Romania reported H5N1 outbreaks in poultry, and Ukraine reported H5 in a sample from a wild bird. In Asia, Taiwan reported H5N1 in a wild bird, and Japan reported highly pathogenic H5N6 in a wild bird, its first detection involving the strain since 2018. H5N6 is known to circulate in poultry in some Asian countries and has been sporadically linked to infections in humans, mostly from China, which are known to be severe or fatal.In its policy brief on poultry vaccination, WOAH said avian flu outbreaks are having a devastating impact on poultry and wild birds and also threaten livelihoods, the food supply, and public health. The group added that the rapidly evolving virus and spread to new geographic regions—most recently Antarctica—require a review of existing prevention and control strategies. "Stricter biosecurity measures and mass culling of poultry may no longer be sufficient to control the disease," it said.Some countries, such as China, routinely vaccinate poultry against highly pathogenic avian flu, but other countries have been hesitant, given use of the vaccine could mask ongoing circulation and add to the cost of production.In Europe, France recently became the first country to introduce poultry vaccination, which is being used in meat ducks. In response, US agriculture officials in October barred the import of poultry from France and its trading partners. So far, the United States has limited use of the vaccine to endangered condors in the Southwest.

Avian influenza has killed millions of seabirds around the world: Antarctica could be next -- Antarctica is often imagined as the last untouched wilderness. Unfortunately,avian influenza ("bird flu") is encroaching on the icy continent. The virus has already reached the sub-Antarctic islands between the Antarctic Peninsula and South America. It's only a matter of time before it reaches the Antarctic continent.So far avian influenza has been detected in several seabird species on South Georgia Island and the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands. These birds are known to travel to Antarctica. Researchers also suspect avian influenza caused mass deaths of southern elephant seals.The arrival of avian influenza in Antarctica could have potentially catastrophic consequences for the wildlife, decimating large populations.Antarctic avian influenza outbreaks may also disrupt tourism and research a ctivities during the busy summer season. So what can we do during this challenging time?We are in the midst of a "panzootic"—a large-scale pandemic of avian influenza, which is occurring across the world and has affected more than 200 species of wild birds.While this strain of avian influenza (H5N1) is an old foe, the genetics and epidemiology of the virus have shifted. Once mostly found in poultry, it is now infecting large numbers of wild birds. Migrating birds have spread the virus with substantial outbreaks now occurring in Europe, Asia, Africa, North America and South America.Avian influenza has devastated seabird populations around the world, including a 70% reduction of northern gannets on Bass Rock in the United Kingdom. Many birds are diseased, with signs including loss of coordination, watery eyes, head twisting, breathing distress or lethargy. Beyond birds, this virus may have killed more than 30,000 South American sea lions and over 2,500 southern elephant seal pups in South America. In South Georgia mass deaths have been observed in elephant seal pups but the virus was not detected in samples sent for laboratory tests.The first detection of avian influenza near Antarctica occurred in early October on Bird Island, South Georgia, in brown skuas (seabirds similar to large gulls). A case on the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands was confirmed a few weeks later in another seabird species, the southern fulmar. Genetic analysis revealed the virus entered these regions on two separate occasions. Skuas and kelp gulls were highlighted as species most likely to spread the virus to the Antarctic continent in a recent risk assessment, as they travel into the region from South America. They are also highly susceptible to avian influenza, with related species in the Northern Hemisphere suffering losses of more than 60%. The Antarctic Peninsula, with its ice-free areas, is an important breeding ground for many key Antarctic species. Critically, those species—and others, including the iconic Emperor penguin—live in dense colonies and are not found elsewhere in the world, making them particularly vulnerable to disease outbreaks.

Quick takes: Fatal H5N6 avian flu in China, global dengue rise, African polio cases -

• China has reported a fatal H5N6 avian flu case involving a 33-year-old woman from Sichuan province who got sick in October after visiting a live poultry market, according to a statement from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP). Her infection marks China's seventh H5N6 cases of the year and the country's 88th since the virus was first found in humans in 2014. The virus is known to circulate in poultry in China and a few other Asian countries. In other avian flu developments, in a weekly update today the CHP reported two more H9N2 cases from China, both from Sichuan province. One patient is a 1-year-old boy, and the other is a 74-year-old woman. Both were sick in November. China has reported five H9N2 cases over the last 6 months. The virus is known to circulate in poultry and typically affects children, causing a mostly mild disease.
• Global dengue cases have risen markedly in the past two decades, posing substantial public health challenges, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a December 21 outbreak notice. Cases rose tenfold across 129 countries between 2000 and 2019. Activity slightly declined between 2020 and 2022, due to COVID impacts, but a surge in 2023 has pushed cases to a near-record high, with more than 5 million cases, more than 5,000 deaths, and spanning more than 80 countries in five WHO regions. Factors include vector distribution changes, climate change, El Nino weather pattern consequences, and fragile health systems.
• Three African nations—Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Nigeria—reported more polio cases, all involving vaccine-derived types, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said in its latestweekly update. Chad reported five circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases from five different provinces, putting its total for the year at 50. The DRC reported six cVDPV2 cases, making 116 for the year, and three infections involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1), lifting that number to 95 for 2023 and the total for 2022 to 150. Also, Nigeria reported five cVDPV2 cases, boosting its total for 2023 to 62.

A Texas Community Is Being Bombarded by Cancer-Causing Benzene. State Officials Have Known for Nearly Two Decades – DeSmog For nearly 20 years, Texas environmental regulators have kept a disturbing secret. People living in a small, unincorporated community east of Houston are routinely breathing dangerous levels of benzene, a chemical linked to leukemia and other blood cancers. Emerging research also connects it to diabetes and reproductive problems. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, or TCEQ, has not told residents about the health risks they face. And it has done little to rein in the facility that the agency knew was releasing large amounts of benzene. Instead, the TCEQ has allowed K-Solv, a chemical distribution company nestled in Channelview’s Jacintoport neighborhood, to expand its operations four times since the problem was discovered in 2005. Today K-Solv is legally allowed to release almost 20 times more volatile organic compounds — a class of chemicals that includes benzene — into the air each year than it did back then. TCEQ documents obtained by Public Health Watch show that some of those early readings were double the level Texas considered safe at the time. Public Health Watch also analyzed more recent TCEQ pollution data and found that Channelview’s benzene problem has only worsened over the years. Benzene is a colorless, sweet-smelling chemical found in crude oil and products including gasoline, solvents, plastics, paints, adhesives and detergents. Although it has been linked to leukemia since the late 1920s, it is unevenly regulated because of relentless opposition from industry groups. When the federal government tried in 1978 to enhance safeguards for workers exposed to benzene, the American Petroleum Institute fought the effort all the way to the Supreme Court, delaying new regulations for almost 10 years. The federal benzene standard for workers today is the same as it was in 1987, although a growing body of evidence shows it doesn’t give them nearly enough protection against cancer. And there are still no federal standards for ambient benzene exposure — the amount that people who live near industrial facilities can safely breathe as they go about their daily lives. At least eight states, including Texas and California, have tried to fill that gap by creating their own regulations to limit ambient benzene emissions. But while California has strengthened its rules over the years, Texas has gone in the opposite direction. Its guidelines are far weaker than those in any of the other states. Today, the TCEQ says the public is protected if the air outside industrial facilities contains an average of no more than 180 parts of benzene per billion parts of air (180 ppb) over a one-hour period. That’s seven times higher than Texas said was safe back in 2005, when Channelview’s benzene problem was discovered. It’s 22 times higher than the 8 ppb guideline California uses today. Texas also has weakened its long-term guideline for benzene — a number meant to protect residents from the risk of developing cancer. In 2007, the TCEQ raised its annual guideline from an average of 1 ppb to 1.4 ppb, a 40% increase. That’s 14 times more than what California says is safe and at least 3.5 times higher than any other state allows.

Researchers surprised at levels of toxicity in standard plastic products - The plastic with which we surround ourselves contains a range of chemical additives that can leach out into water systems in the natural environment. This can happen both before and during the plastic degradation process. Even if it takes a long time for products to break down into microplastic particles, the chemicals start to leach from the plastic as soon as it enters the water. Researchers have been trying to find out more about whether this phenomenon is harmful to animals, and perhaps also to humans."In this project, we've been focusing on the impacts on marine organisms of chemical additives in plastics," "To do this, we've been studying a variety of marine species. During the first screening exercise, we examined two groups of microorganisms—bacteria and microalgae, also known as phytoplankton. These species are easy to work with and provide us with quick answers that we can use to help us map out the future direction of our research," she says. "Later, we worked with the eggs and larvae of cod, which is one of our most important natural resources," says Sørensen. "We're well aware that fish, just like humans, are more vulnerable to the health effects of pollution when they're immature," she explains. "It is of course impossible to test every single plastic product available, so we made a 'qualified selection' of 50 items that we use in our everyday lives," Among the 50 products were plastic bags, disposable cups, dishwashing gloves, car tire granules, a variety of children's toys and balloons. And that was just for starters. "The initial idea was simply to select 'classic' plastic products, but I fell for the temptation to include some items made of rubber," says Sørensen. "And this proved to be a wise decision," she says. "We were very surprised at the number of different chemicals we identified in these products," says Sørensen. "Only 30% of the chemical compounds identified were found in two or more products. There were also a large number of chemicals that we couldn't identify with certainty because they were not listed in established substance indexes. This told us how little we know about the composition of many of the everyday products that we have around us all the time," she says. The aim of the project is purely and simply to investigate how toxic these chemicals are to living organisms once the plastic products find their way into the marine environment. In recent years there has been a major focus on problems related to microplastics. When plastics are broken down, either physically into fragments or chemically due to environmental factors, they eventually end up as microplastic particles. However, long before this process has been completed, chemical additives in the plastics may leach out into the natural environment. "It was this issue that we wanted to address in the MicroLEACH project," says Andy Booth, who is a Chief Research Scientist at SINTEF. "The question is: how toxic are the chemical additives we find in standard plastic products available on the Norwegian market, and how much of a problem are they compared with the microplastics generated by the products themselves?" he says. The research team looked into the effect of chemicals that leach from microplastics and rubber particles into the marine environment. "What we found is that products that either consist of, or contain, high levels of rubber, had the worst impact on the microorganisms that we investigated in our experiment," says Booth. "This was a little surprising—not least because untreated rubber is seen as a 'natural' product. We found, however, that it was among the substances that was most toxic to the microorganisms we were studying," he says. Worst of all were the chemicals that leached from rubber gloves. "It's well worth noting that chemicals added to natural rubber and used in dishwashing gloves proved to be the most toxic to the microorganisms," says Booth. These are substances that we found in four of the 50 products that we tested—dishwashing gloves, car tires, rubber balloons and disposable gloves," he says.

Genetic engineering was meant to save chestnut trees. Then there was a mistake. Washington Post -- For nearly a decade, Jared Westbrook has worked on resurrecting the American chestnut, an iconic tree that nearly vanished from the United States a century ago. The American Chestnut Foundation, a nonprofit where Westbrook is director of science, has poured years of work into a line of chestnuts genetically engineered to endure a deadly disease infecting them, an effort meant to be one of the best hopes for its survival. Then an October visit to a chestnut field in Indiana delivered a blow to that vision. Looking out at the modified trees, Westbrook knew something wasn’t right. He saw one tall tree next to one shorter than normal. Another tall, another short. It meant some may not be able to compete for sunlight if placed in the wild. The team was meant to be working with a tree dubbed Darling 58, developed by the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry (SUNY ESF). But Westbrook and others would soon discover that many of the trees they were working with were not Darling 58 trees at all. They were a different variety of chestnut — with the gene inserted into the wrong spot. The mistake would prove to be the latest in a series of concerns, driving the American Chestnut Foundation to pull its support this month for the Darling line. It’s a development that has sent a rift through the passionate community and left still-unanswered questions about the fate of a long-standing, high-tech effort. The disagreement threatens to delay or derail plans for restoring the trees. “Virtually every month we turn around, we’re getting even more red flags,” said Sara Fern Fitzsimmons, the American Chestnut Foundation’s chief conservation officer. “There’s no way we would have pulled this if we weren’t really concerned.” “It’s a science-based decision,” she added. But Andrew Newhouse, director of chestnut restoration at SUNY ESF, said his team is moving forward with seeking federal approval to begin distributing seeds to the public — but without the 5,000-member foundation as its longtime partner and financial backer.

These creepy crawlies could be Florida's next big invasive threats, scientists say --Florida has long been home to an unnatural assortment of creatures from faraway lands and habitats, and these tourists turned permanent residents have wreaked havoc on the natural ecosystem. You can thank the Burmese pythons slithering around the Everglades for the lack of marsh rabbits, and the Asian swamp eels are to blame for cratering populations of native crayfish and flagfish. But what's next?That's the subject of new research from the University of Florida, where scientists tried to predict which species could be the next contender for the Sunshine State's most annoying new invasive.Scientists analyzed nearly 500 potential candidates before narrowing the field to 40 species that could pose the biggest threat.Of those, four stood out. The UF team said the four species to watch out for next are alewife, zebra mussels, crab-eating macaques, and red swamp crayfish.While the three marine species may not look impressive compared to the fanged beasts that draw the most headlines for their ecosystem-ruining behavior, they each could pose a real threat to Florida's food web.The report doesn't suggest where these species might be likely to pop up next, but it does include predictions for how they might sneak into Florida, including hitchhiking on cargo containers or illegal releases from irresponsible pet owners. The study mainly relies on a numerical model that scores and ranks the creatures based on their history of invading other places, how often Florida is exposed to places where they're already invasive, and if Florida is the right habitat for this species. Researchers also ran their findings past a panel of 28 experts in academia, wildlife management nonprofits, and government agencies.

Christmas Day storms bring blizzard conditions to Plains and Midwest: NPR --Flight cancellations started ticking up as a significant winter storm hit parts of the Northern and Central Plains regions and the Upper Midwest with freezing rain, heavy snow and powerful wind gusts.But as of late morning, the overall number of flights delayed and cancelled remained lower than last year, but the storm system is also creating dangerous travel conditions on the roads.Blizzard warnings are in effect for South Dakota and Nebraska, where heavy snow is expected throughout the day.Nebraska's Department of Transportation issued a warning Monday morning, asking people to stay off the roads throughout the state.There's a high chance south-central and central South Dakota will get at least a foot of snowfall, according to the National Weather Service. Most of the state, as well as Nebraska and Kansas, are likely to see more than 4 inches of snow.Some areas are bracing for a deluge, like Sioux Falls, S.D., where 12 to 18 inches of snow are expected to fall.And in neighboring Minnesota, ice and freezing rain are expected to hit the southwest regions of the state. The state's Department of Transportationwarns that some roads in the area are completely covered with snow, while others are covered with ice or slush.The National Weather Service also warned that isolated power outages are possible in the region.In addition to snow-covered roads and whiteout conditions, winds with up to 55 mph gusts could bring down tree branches, and powerlines could snarl travelers.As of late Monday morning, over 1,200 flights coming into or departing the were delayed, with more than 130 cancellations, according to the flight tracking website FlightAware.

Storminess targets Northeast after winter storm brings blizzard conditions to central US -- Parts of the eastern US will face tricky holiday travel after avoiding deadly blizzard conditions and ice that slammed the central US earlier this week. A batch of steady rain will move across the mid-Atlantic through Wednesday afternoon and push into the Northeast by Wednesday evening. This rainfall could become heavy at times, especially late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Washington, DC, Philadelphia and New York City all face a Level 1 of 4 flood threat from the heavy rain. Ponding on roadways could slow travel on the ground and reduced visibility may lead to flight delays. Wednesday’s travel weather hazards come after a blizzard-fueling winter storm swept across the Plains and upper Midwest with heavy snow, freezing rain and strong winds, creating dangerous travel in the busy holiday week. Light-to-moderate snow as well as rain and freezing rain could fall over parts of the region Wednesday, but will largely wrap up by the end of the day. A few rain and snow showers will then track through portions of the Great Lakes on Thursday. Snow blown by strong winds piles up into drifts in Box Elder, South Dakota. The storm’s worst happened on Monday and Tuesday, when snow combined with strong wind gusts – sometimes 50 to 60 mph, with isolated gusts up to 75 mph – to hit parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Colorado and Wyoming. Blizzards occur when blowing snow and sustained strong winds combine for at least three hours and reduce visibility to a quarter-mile or less. In Kansas, snow and ice contributed to a deadly crash early Monday evening in Pawnee County when a driver of a pickup truck lost control and struck a car head on driven by 86-year-old Evelyn D. Reece. Reece was killed in the Christmas day crash, according to Kansas Highway Patrol. The driver of the pickup truck was injured, as well as two others riding in the vehicle with Reece. Cars also collided and slid off roads Monday in Nebraska, where tractor-trailers jackknifed and got stuck on eastbound Interstate 80 near York in the morning and early afternoon, the Nebraska State Patrol said. Troopers with the Nebraska State Patrol said they responded to about 150 weather-related incidents on Christmas Day, according to a news release.. Low visibility levels also shut down major roadways that lingered into Wednesday morning. Westbound Interstate 80 and Highway 30 were closed from Kearney, in the middle of Nebraska, to the Wyoming state line, a stretch of about 270 miles, according to the state Department of Transportation. Eastbound travel on the highways was closed from Wyoming to North Platte, Nebraska, about 179 miles, according to the transportation department and state police. One traveler, Bradley Sanders, told CNN he was driving from Denver to Chicago on Tuesday when the blizzard hit, so he pulled over near Ogallala, Nebraska, to charge his car around noon. Soon after, he learned the highway was shut down, so he booked a motel for the night. He said there was a line of stranded drivers at the motel looking for a room.

Severe flooding hits southern Thailand - (video) Severe floods caused by intense rainfall affected more than 66 000 people in Thailand’s most southern provinces, Narathiwat and Yala on December 25 and 26, 2023. Tens of thousands of residents in southern Thailand were hit by severe flooding that led to extensive disruptions over the past couple of days. The floods submerged roads and railways, prompted the closure of schools, and left people trapped in their homes, struggling against rising waters. The province of Narathiwat, located near the country’s southern border with Malaysia, was the worst affected. Some districts were submerged for days, leading to desperate calls for assistance. Thai PBS reported that numerous people were forced to seek refuge on the roofs of their flooded homes, awaiting rescue and relief. YouTube video The impact of the flooding extended to the educational sector, with at least a dozen schools in Narathiwat and the neighboring province of Yala forced to shut down. Visuals from the region depicted a grim scene with homes, shops, and community areas inundated with floodwaters. The relentless downpour not only wreaked havoc on land but also at sea, leading to the sinking of at least seven boats in the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea since Friday, December 22. Due to track subsidence from the persistent rains, trains heading south towards Malaysia were terminating at Yala, approximately 100 km (62 miles) from the border, significantly impacting travel and trade in the region.

Destructive thunderstorms hit Australia’s east coast, leaving 10 fatalities - (video) Ten people have lost their lives in a series of storm and water-related incidents across Australia, spanning from Queensland to Victoria, as severe thunderstorms battered the east coast from December 24 – 26, 2023. Ten people have lost their lives in various storm and water-related tragedies as severe weather conditions ravaged the east coast of Australia from Christmas Eve to Boxing Day. The devastating events spread across the region, from Queensland to Victoria, leading to a toll of lives lost and significant damage to homes and businesses. In Queensland, a particularly harrowing incident occurred on Boxing Day when a large boat carrying 11 people capsized near Brisbane, just south of Green Island in Moreton Bay. Despite the rescue efforts that saved eight individuals, three men, aged 48, 69, and 59, were found deceased in the water. The string of tragedies in Queensland continued, including two women who lost their lives at Mary River near Gympie after being swept away in a storm drain, and a 9-year-old girl who died in floods at Logan. Additionally, a falling tree claimed the life of a woman on the Gold Coast on Christmas Day. YouTube video Premier Steven Miles addressed the state, acknowledging the tragic toll of the storm and emphasizing the ongoing efforts in response, including repairing 900 damaged power lines and restoring electricity to 25 000 houses. However, tens of thousands remain without power. The Premier also noted the activation of disaster hardship funding for Gold Coast residents and projected that the damage costs from the recent floods and storms would escalate into billions. Further south, in Victoria, the severe weather claimed more lives. A man succumbed to injuries from a falling tree on Boxing Day, and a woman died in floodwaters at a Buchan campsite. While the weather emergency peaked overnight, with widespread flooding continuing, authorities remain vigilant with watch and act warnings in place for areas like Avoca River to Charlton Town and initial minor flood warnings issued for several rivers. In New South Wales, the tumultuous weather persists with a supercell sweeping across the region, bringing squally winds, rain, and hail. The State Emergency Service (SES) has been actively responding to over 1 217 incidents with their 1 000 volunteers, tackling challenges ranging from flood rescues to hail-damaged properties.

Storm Zoltan hits western Europe, causing widespread damage and fatalities - (video) Storm Zoltan (also known as Pia) moved over Germany and neighboring countries on December 21 and 22, 2023, bringing gale-force winds and heavy rains. The storm left several people dead, caused extensive damage, and disrupted traffic across the region. In Germany, the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency warned of severe storm surges along the North Sea coast, with water levels predicted to rise up to 3 m (10 feet) above mean high water in certain areas. The bustling fish market and surrounding streets of Hamburg were completely submerged, with floodwaters reaching waist height. Rail operations have been severely affected due to fallen trees and damaged overhead lines, especially in northern Germany, as reported by Deutsche Bahn. Zoltan has led to numerous accidents in Schleswig-Holstein and other parts, causing injuries and fatalities. Germany’s National Meteorological Service recorded wind gusts of 111 km/h (69 mph) in Hanover. In Belgium’s Oudenaarde, the storm toppled a giant Christmas tree, killing a 63-year-old woman. The event has raised concerns over the safety of public installations during extreme weather conditions. Additional fatalities were reported in Belgium and the Netherlands. A 140 m (450 feet) long cruise ship lost power after a collision with a massive wave in the North Sea on December 21. One passenger said they spent 4 hours in survival suits and life vests while the Danish Coastguard and local oil rigs sent out rescue boats. The wave smashed at least two windows on the bridge and the incoming seawater knocked out the navigation system and radar. German media reported that three passengers were taken to a hospital upon disembarking, with broken bones, scrapes and bruises. High seas also knocked containers from cargo ships, leaving beaches in Norway littered with goods.

Floods and landslides claim more than 60 lives in the Democratic Republic of Congo - More than 60 people have died and 16 remain missing in the Democratic Republic of Congo following torrential rains that triggered devastating floods and landslides over the past couple of days. The city of Bukavu, home to an estimated two million people in South Kivu province, faced the brunt of the disaster with at least 20 fatalities reported on Tuesday, December 26, 2023. Among the tragic incidents, a wall collapsed on worshippers during a church service in Bukavu, claiming five lives, as reported by Albert Migabo Nyagaza, a local official and pastor. Additionally, three other people were swept away in the flooding. Residents like Yvonne Mukupi have witnessed the horror firsthand, with neighbors swept away by the relentless floodwaters and bodies being recovered under trees. Another 20 lives were lost in the village of Burinyi, situated 50 km (31 miles) from Bukavu. Heavy rains, floods and landslides were also reported in Kasai-Central province, where at least 22 people died on Tuesday. Authorities of the town of Kananga said a landslide engulfed houses, churches and roads, killing entire families and leaving people homeless. “Most of these deaths were caused by the collapse of the walls of houses built on unsuitable land,” Kananga Mayor Rose Muadi Musube said. “I am asking the prime minister to come to our aid and for the government to provide us with substantial assistance so that we can bury our dead with dignity,” Muadi Musube added. Another landslide occurred in the town of Kamituga, also in South Kivu, on Sunday, December 24. Deputy Mayor Alexandre Ngandu Kamundala detailed a scene where some 25 people, mostly miners, were sheltering in a cabin from the rains when a landslide struck, sweeping them into a fast-flowing river below. While five individuals managed to escape, 20 were swept away, and four lifeless bodies have been recovered.

Major incident declared in Tameside after tornado rips through during Storm Gerrit, UK - A small tornado, produced by Storm Gerrit, tore through Greater Manchester, UK around 23:45 UTC on December 27, 2023, leading to significant damage and the declaration of a major incident in Tameside. During the late hours of December 27, 2023, a small but destructive tornado tore through Greater Manchester amid the wider impacts of Storm Gerrit. The tornado resulted in roofs being torn off houses, trees being uprooted, and walls collapsing in the affected areas. Tameside, particularly the Millbrook and Carrbrook areas in Stalybridge, bore the brunt of the destruction, with around a hundred homes reported damaged. Despite the severe damage, there have fortunately been no reported injuries. Chief Superintendent Mark Dexter of the local police force declared a major incident due to the severity of the damage and potential risk to public safety. He emphasized the priority of keeping people safe and advised those displaced not to return or enter properties with significant damage until assessed by structural engineers. He also urged the public to avoid the area and be cautious of debris while traveling in and around Stalybridge. The UK Met Office, in its morning update, acknowledged the crossing of a supercell thunderstorm over Greater Manchester the previous night, suggesting the likelihood of a tornado based on radar observations of a strong rotating updraft. However, confirmation awaits further surface data and a detailed investigation by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation. Last night a supercell thunderstorm crossed Greater Manchester causing damage. We know from our Dopplar radar that it had a strong rotating updraft. Whilst we don't yet have surface data to confirm, the presence of these features suggests a tornado at the surface was likely 🌪️🌪️ pic.twitter.com/XEG1TkKbjN — Met Office (@metoffice) December 28, 2023 In response to the tornado, Fire and Ambulance crews, Electricity North West, and council officials were dispatched to multiple sites across Tameside. A rest center was set up at Dukinfield Town Hall to aid those affected by the storm and tornado. Beyond Greater Manchester, Storm Gerrit has wreaked havoc across the UK, particularly in Scotland, with flooding and disrupted travel. Wind speeds up to 129 km/h (80 mph) and gusts reaching 170 km/h (106 mph) have left 25 000 homes without power. 16 000 homes are still without power on Thursday morning, December 28. Efforts are ongoing to restore electricity to affected homes, with travel networks attempting to recover from widespread disruptions, including cancellations and delays in ferry, train, and plane services.

Beijing sees coldest December on record in more than 70 years --Beijing recorded more than 300 hours of sub-freezing temperatures in the last two weeks, setting a record for the coldest two-week period in China’s capital city since officials began tracking. The official newspaper, the Beijing Daily, said the two-week period starting on Dec. 11 had the most hours of sub-freezing temperatures since 1951, The Associated Press reported. The city also had nine consecutive days reaching a low of at least 14 degrees Fahrenheit. The National Meteorological Centre, the AP reported, recorded all-time low temperatures during the month of December. Average temperatures in other parts of China also hit record lows hit in 1961, the AP reported, citing the center. The Beijing Meteorological Observatory announced early Dec. 26 local time that temperatures would rise and reach a high of 39.2 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday. The low could drop to 17.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Earlier this year, in June, Beijing saw its highest day on record, with temperatures reaching as high as 104 degrees Fahrenheit.

Beijing hit by record December lows, longest cold wave since 1951, China - (video) Beijing has recorded its longest cold wave since records began in 1951, with the capital experiencing more than 300 hours of sub-zero temperatures since December 11. The cold wave has brought a sweeping chill across northern and northeastern parts of China, with some areas in the northeast experiencing temperatures plunging to -40 °C/°F and below. This Arctic blast has been particularly harsh in Beijing, where the Nanjiao weather station recorded its first rise above 0 °C (32 °F) on Sunday afternoon, December 24, breaking the freezing streak that persisted since December 11. This period marked over 300 hours of below-freezing temperatures for the capital, the most extended duration for the month of December since record-keeping began in 1951. Furthermore, the city endured nine consecutive days of temperatures below -10 °C (14 °F). The plummeting temperatures have caused disruptions to the city’s metro system, leading to a collision between two trains earlier in the month amid snowy conditions. The incident resulted in hundreds of commuters seeking medical attention, with many suffering from fractured bones. The extremely cold temperatures complicated rescue efforts following a deadly earthquake earlier in the month in northwest Gansu province. YouTube video The intense cold wave has pushed the heating capacities of several northern cities to their limits. In the central province of Henan, multiple system failures were reported due to the overwhelming demand for heating. Jiaozuo, a city in Henan, experienced a partial halt in heating services due to a dysfunction at the Wanfang power plant. Other cities in the province, including Puyang and Pingdingshan, had to cut heating to government buildings and state-owned enterprises to prioritize essential services like hospitals, schools, and residential buildings. Beijing also recorded its hottest June in 2023, with temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F).

Arctic’s 40-year record low temperatures spawn rare clouds - NASA’s MERRA-2 climate model reveals that the Arctic stratosphere has reached a 40-year record low for December, creating a sudden appearance of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) far beyond their usual Arctic confines. Recent observations have revealed a remarkable surge in polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), often referred to as the most beautiful clouds on Earth due to their aurora-like colors. This sudden increase is attributed to a 40-year record low in temperatures within the Arctic stratosphere for the month of December, as indicated by NASA’s MERRA-2 climate model. The unusual cold snap has caused these clouds, usually confined to the Arctic, to descend all the way to mid-latitudes. Notable sightings have been reported over Locarno, Switzerland, Torun, Italy, and Lausanne, Switzerland, locations well beyond the normal range of PSCs. This phenomenon represents a significant deviation from the typical January start of the PSC season. The current extreme cold wave has not only given rise to an early onset of these clouds but also suggests the potential for increased occurrences in the coming weeks. On December 24, 2023, the Arctic stratosphere is warming but it’s still cold enough for polar stratospheric clouds

A "Textbook" Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Appears To Be Unfolding Meteorologists on social media channel X are posting weather models about the increasing threat of a so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over the Arctic, which could unleash wintry weather across the eastern half of the US in the new year. "A textbook sudden stratospheric warming event looks to be unfolding," private weather forecaster BAM Weather (BAMWX).Judah Cohen, Ph.D. and an atmospheric and environmental scientist who studies the polar vortex, told FOX Weather an SSW event takes "about two weeks for the effects of the sudden stratospheric warming to impact our weather." Cohen posted, "All models now agree on a Polar Vortex stretch. Major warming still possible." Meteorologist Mark Margavage said, "The 12z EPS Control run is showing the granddaddy of all Polar Vortex disruptions with a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event and split of the PV. This would be the most impactful scenario of the 4 presented today." "It appears as if there could be a legitimate risk developing for a mid to late Jan major blast of Arcitic air and stormy weather," BAMWX noted, adding, "Exact timing is still a bit up for grabs but very encouraging if you're a lover of snow and cold."

Potential for disrupted polar vortex in January 2024 - Current forecasts indicate a strong stratospheric warming event in January 2024, potentially leading to a weakened Polar Vortex and a significant weather pattern shift across the United States and Europe. Meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing stratospheric warming event, forecasted for January 2024, which could signal a weakening or even collapse of the polar vortex. This significant atmospheric shift may herald a much-anticipated change in the weather patterns across the United States and Europe as winter deepens. Understanding the polar vortex is key to grasping mid-winter weather shifts. Essentially a broad winter circulation, the polar vortex extends high into the stratosphere, impacting weather events in the troposphere below. This system, divided into upper (stratospheric) and lower (tropospheric) parts, plays a crucial role in forming the winter climate across the Northern Hemisphere. Currently, the polar vortex is normal in size but displaced due to a high-pressure area over the North Pacific. This distortion is evident in mid-stratospheric temperature and geopotential height observations. A small warming wave marks the beginning of more dramatic changes anticipated with the upcoming stratospheric warming event. The strength and structure of the polar vortex significantly influence mid-latitude weather. A stable and robust polar vortex typically confines colder Arctic air, leading to milder conditions in the United States. Conversely, a weak or disrupted polar vortex allows cold air to spill into mid-latitudes, bringing colder, snowier conditions. Such disruptions are often marked by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events, where the winds within the vortex weaken, indicating potential changes in weather patterns. As we approach 2024, forecasts predict a major slowdown of the polar vortex combined with a significant warming event. Various models, including ECMWF and GEFS, indicate a substantial weakening in early January, potentially leading to a full collapse of the polar vortex. This event, characterized by a dramatic temperature and pressure rise in the stratosphere, can disturb the circulation, initiating a collapse of the polar vortex and subsequently altering weather patterns at the surface. noaa gefsv12 10 hPa ensemble mean temperature and anomaly dec2023-jan2024 Typically following a stratospheric warming event, high-pressure anomalies descend from the stratosphere to the surface, weakening the jet stream and unlocking Arctic cold air. This pattern is visible in surface pressure and temperature forecasts, suggesting colder anomalies over the United States and a potential for northerly flows in Europe. The implications of a weakened polar vortex are profound, offering the possibility of a colder and snowier January compared to the warmer conditions experienced in December. While specifics are still emerging, the trends indicate a marked shift in weather patterns.

EPA OKs Louisiana's Bid to Oversee Carbon Capture Projects - The Biden administration approved Louisiana’s bid to take the lead role in vetting and overseeing carbon dioxide storage wells in the state, a blow to environmentalists and some local residents who battled the plan. The Environmental Protection Agency formally approved Louisiana’s primacy over the so-called class VI storage wells and inked an agreement with the state designed to blunt the impact on communities most vulnerable to pollution. The move promises to accelerate the permitting and construction of wells to store carbon dioxide captured from oil refineries, ethanol plants and other industrial facilities, after expanded subsidies in last year’s climate law supercharged interest in the activity. Carbon capture advocates have sounded the alarm about a growing backlog of carbon dioxide injection well applications, with 172 now pending before the EPA. They argue that when states take the lead role over the wells, rather than a small pool of overburdened EPA staff, they can expedite reviews and put a broader pool of engineers to work scrutinizing individual projects. At stake, supporters argue, is the reach of a nascent carbon capture industry that’s essential to stem greenhouse gas emissions and constrain global temperature rise. Carbon capture technology also is the cornerstone of a proposed EPA regulation meant to throttle greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan stressed that the decision was made under Safe Drinking Water Act obligations to grant states primacy over the wells if they meet requirements for approval. Nevertheless, he said, the EPA was taking steps to ensure the Louisiana well oversight “embeds environmental justice at its core.” Under a new memorandum of agreement, the state will be obligated “to protect communities from any current or future environmental hazards associated” with the carbon dioxide storage wells, Regan said. “It will also adhere to clear federal requirements under the Safe Drinking Water Act that ensure that injection wells do not contaminate underground sources of drinking water.”

Europe is spending millions to trap carbon. Where will it go? – Tomaž Vuk has the carbon. Now he just needs somewhere to send it. Since 2020, Vuk, who sits on the board of the Salonit cement factory in Slovenia, has been plotting to get in on the ground floor of an industry poised to boom in the coming years: carbon capture. It’s one of the ways carbon-spewing factories like the one Vuk helps run are supposed to keep operating in a greener future. There’s just one problem: Vuk has nowhere to store any carbon he traps at the plant.Salonit sits roughly 50 kilometers off the Gulf of Trieste, an Italian port nestled near the Adriatic Sea’s highest point. From there, Salonit can technically ship the carbon anywhere. But for now, it seems the only options are way up in the North Sea — a protracted (and, most notably, expensive) trip around the Continent. Vuk said he’s willing to send the carbon wherever, but would of course prefer spots along the nearby Mediterranean and the Black Seas. For now, that’s not likely. So the North Sea it is.“It might be acceptable to carry those costs for a short period of time until [closer] solutions are ready,” Vuk said. The conundrum is a small example of a mounting problem for Europe as it races to establish the infrastructure needed to hit climate neutrality by 2050. The EU is heavily encouraging companies to invest in projects and technology that can either suck carbon from the air or prevent it from getting there in the first place. But that also means finding places to store all of that carbon.So far, North Sea countries like Denmark and the Netherlands have dominated the industry — a fact the EU is aiming to change with new incentives and rules meant to create more storage across the bloc by 2030. But not everyone is convinced the plan will work, and some skeptics even wonder if carbon capture is really worth the sky-high investments required. The stakes are high: Should the EU's masterplan fail, landlocked, low-income European countries could be making investments now that never pay off, potentially taking down traditional manufacturing plants with them. That would leave the EU with an even greater economic divide — and another gap to fill in its green ambitions.“There's quite a risk, at least for industries in regions like Southern Central and Eastern Europe, where there are little project developments happening,” said Eadbhard Pernot, who leads the works on carbon capture for Clean Air Task Force, an NGO. “There's a risk of deindustrialization in some parts of Europe and industrialization in other parts of Europe.”

UAE farm harvests $5.53mln from carbon credits - An innovative agricultural project in the UAE, ‘David & Goliath’ farms, has marked a significant milestone by generating 5 million euros ($5.53 million) from carbon credit sales. Carbon credits are permits that allow a company to emit a certain quantity of greenhouse gases, with one credit equalling the emission of one tonne of carbon dioxide or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases. Companies are allocated a specific number of these credits. If they reduce their emissions and have surplus credits, they can sell these to other companies in what is known as carbon markets. ‘David & Goliath’ farms has capitalised on the UAE's commitment to innovative and sustainable agricultural technologies. These include vertical farms, automated irrigation systems, and technologically advanced greenhouses. The project focuses on cultivating rare and exotic fruits, combining unique agricultural methods with environmental and investment strategies aimed at sustainable agriculture. A key component of their revenue comes from monetising carbon credits. According to the project's investor, Dr Lal Bhatia, the farm's annual carbon credit provision amounts to 15,000 metric tonnes. These credits are traded at 50 euros per tonne, bringing in an annual revenue of 750,000 euros. Accumulated over seven years, this represents a significant financial and environmental achievement.

Imdaad sets up waste-to-fuel treatment plant in Dubai - Imdaad, a leading integrated facilities management company in the Middle East, has set up an innovative refuse-derived fuel (RDF) plant within its material recovery facility, FARZ, located in the National Industries Park, Dubai. The advanced RDF plant possesses the capacity to treat 300 tonnes of incombustible and unrecyclable waste and convert it into clean energy suitable for industrial use and manufacturing processes. This will empower Imdaad and FARZ to divert a significant amount of municipal solid waste from landfills, aligning with the UAE’s larger environmental mission. Established in 2020, FARZ can treat 1,200 tonnes of waste per day, of which 50% are reclaimed as recyclable valuables. However, the remaining waste refuse is directed to the landfill, said the statement from Imdaad. With the establishment of the advanced RDF facility at FARZ, the remnants of the recycled waste can now be converted into clean energy to power various industries, it added.

China's New Rare Earth Policy Shakes Global Tech Industry -China just expanded its already tight restrictions on export of technology related to refining rare earth minerals. The most recent restrictions involve technology for making rare earth magnets which are used in electric motors and generators. These minerals are also used extensively in the automotive industry and in consumer electronics such as cellphones.I have previously written that the clean energy economy is a metals energy economy, and rare earths constitute a substantial and key part of that metals energy economy.Export of rare earth extraction and separation technology had already been banned by China. The most recent and previous restrictions are part of a broader trade war between the United States and China over exchange of technology. In late 2022 the United States banned exports of advanced microchips. China responded with a ban on the export germanium and gallium, two metals crucial to the manufacture of advanced chips. The United States imports half of its germanium needs and all of the gallium it uses. What exactly are the Chinese hoping to achieve?The answer becomes pretty clear when you realize that China supplies 90 percent of the volume of refined rare earth metals to the world. The country produces 60 percent of the ore. That means the rest of the world is sending three-quarters of its ore to China for processing, and the Chinese would like to continue to enjoy its near monopoly on processing. That puts China in a commanding position to decide who will get these metals and even whether the rest of the world gets any at all. China unexpectedly and dramatically reduced its rare earth exports in 2010, driving prices skyward.The obvious response to such uncertainty would be to encourage the mining of rare earths outside of China. The current U.S. administration rolled out a modest program to incentivize U.S.-based mining of critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt and manganese. Many rare earths are already on what is known as the List of Critical Minerals and thus eligible for incentives to encourage domestic production. A small amount of funding has been allocated for this purpose.A private attempt to revive a closed rare earth mine, the largest in the United States, resulted in a colossal financial loss for the investors when rare earth prices plummeted after China resumed its previous level of exports following the reduction in 2010.This shows how China can easily sabotage any attempts to challenge its dominance of the rare earth market.Given the close relationship between China's government and its rare earth industry, the only reasonable way to break the Chinese stranglehold on the rare earth market would be for governments to guarantee the price of rare earths mined by domestic companies. That runs so counter to the neoliberal free market ethic of the past 40 years that I don't see it becoming a reality.In a world where the consensus regarding the free exchange of goods is breaking down and geopolitical interests are coming to the fore, China seems to care far less about living up to free trade rules than protecting its perceived national interests.If other major trading countries and blocks start moving in the same direction, the easy availability of cheap goods and resources produced in faraway locales may become increasingly problematic.

Fire at GM flagship Factory Zero EV plant highlights dangers of lithium-ion batteriesA raging fire at the General Motors Factory Zero electric vehicle plant on the Detroit-Hamtramck border in Michigan shut down production for two shifts Tuesday. The fire was caused by a hi-lo [forklift] accidentally puncturing a container with battery materials. The fire filled much of the factory with heavy smoke and forced its evacuation. Two work shifts had to be canceled. Fortunately, no injuries were reported, although firefighters were hosed down after leaving the factory as a precaution due to potential exposure to dangerous chemicals. According to press reports, the fire broke out in a shipping area that contained lithium-ion batteries. The three-alarm fire brought out 18 firetrucks and 60 Detroit firefighters. Lithium-ion batteries produce toxic chemicals when burned, including carbon monoxide, methane, hydrogen cyanide, hydrogen fluoride and hydrogen chloride. GM resumed production the next day. In the aftermath of the fire, General Motors issued a boilerplate statement declaring “Safety remains our overriding priority.” The United Auto Workers, which covers the 1,800 workers at the factory, had not said anything at the time of this writing. This was the eighth fire in the plant since August related to EV batteries. At a press briefing following the fire, Detroit Fire Chief James Harris admitted, “There is still a lot we don’t know about this type of fire because it is new. But it is coming and it is not going to stop. We are doing a lot of research, going to other cities.” Harris said that as a result of the fire Tuesday much of the factory was filled with dense, potentially toxic smoke. It is not known if any health evaluation was done of workers who might have been exposed to dangerous chemical residues. According to a report in the Detroit Free Press, based on documents it obtained under the state Freedom of Information Act, “the Detroit Fire Department said in an Oct. 25 report there was ‘an autonomous electric car fire’ inside the factory that water sprinklers helped extinguish. The report stated the ventilation system was not operating correctly and did not allow smoke to exit the building in a timely manner. The car fire consisted of a ‘battery fire, toxins and smoke was in the air.’”

Power Grid Watchdog Warns of Future Blackouts, Need for Natural Gas to Support Renewables - The watchdog overseeing the North American power grid warns that the combination of rapid retirement of coal-fired electricity generation and the increasing reliance on wind and solar are risking large swaths of the United States with blackouts during heat waves and cold snaps.“This assessment provides clear evidence of growing resource adequacy concerns over the next 10 years,” the latest report states. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) produces annual long-term assessments of potential electricity shortfalls over the next decade. In its latest long-term assessment published Wednesday, NERC stated that a priority action to ensure more grid reliability is increasing natural gas supply infrastructure.For the past few years, NERC’s long-term assessments have reported increasing risks of electricity shortfalls during periods of high demand as a result of increased weather-dependent generation from wind and solar, as well as increasing demands for power stemming from electric vehicles, data centers, and home electrification. Kevin Kilty, a retired mechanical engineer, told Just The news that grid assessment organizations, like NERC and similar state-level organizations, tend to be careful with the language they use in their reports. “They use euphemisms that are sort of soft sounding, and they don’t want to upset the political types. The political types are noisy and aggressive,” Kilty said.Whereas previous years’ assessments talked about the need for dispatchable power, they avoided specifics. This year’s assessment was the first to prioritize fossil fuel infrastructure to address the growing problem.In sub-freezing temperatures, the report explained, the natural gas supply to generators is disrupted as people use more gas to heat their homes. The problem is amplified from the changing mix of dispatchable resources, which are generators that don’t have to rely on random weather conditions to produce power, such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear.As the U.S. shuts down coal-fired power plants and increasingly relies on natural gas-fired generators, NERC warns, the potential for electricity shortfalls is being amplified. The U.S. grid has never been as reliant on natural gas generation as it is today, wind and solar resources are not adequate to meet demand. “Periods of low wind are another example of potentially energy-constrained conditions if the resource mix is not sufficiently balanced with dispatchable resources to prevent electricity shortfalls,” the report states. “The past two winters have seen interruptions of natural gas delivery to generators that resulted in energy deficiencies,” the report says.NERC “strongly” recommends reliability rules for natural gas infrastructure that ensures a reliable supply of the fuel during extreme cold. The report also recommends that state regulators and utility organizations extend the service of generators that are planned for retirement.The report also recommends increasing transmission capacity. Because the wind blows and sun shines randomly across the country, large numbers of new transmission lines are needed to transport energy from where it’s produced to where it’s consumed.

DeWine signs bill letting gas companies charge Ohioans millions for new pipelines - – Natural gas companies could soon charge Ohio customers tens of millions of dollars more per year to build pipelines to potential megaproject sites under legislation signed into law by Gov. Mike DeWine on Thursday.DeWine’s signature on House Bill 201 marks an about-face from earlier this year, when he used his line-item veto authority to strip out a similar proposal from the state’s massive two-year budget plan.HB201, a Republican-sponsored bill that passed the legislature in near party-line votes, was originally written to prohibit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency or local governments in the state from restricting the sale of gasoline-powered cars in order to promote the use of electric vehicles.But under language added by lawmakers roughly 36 hours before HB201 passed both the House and Senate, gas companies can charge Ohio’s 3.7 million gas customers up to $1.50 per month for as long as five years to extend gas lines to sites that could potentially be used for megaprojects, even if no buyer has been lined up yet. Sites or projects would only be eligible for the fee if they are supported by JobsOhio (the state’s economic development non-profit), regional affiliates of JobsOhio, or the Ohio Department of Development. The non-partisan Legislative Service Commission previously estimated that a similar version of the measure would cost Ohio’s 3.7 million natural-gas customers a total of about $67 million per year, though that calculation was based on a $3 monthly cap instead of $1.50. Natural gas utilities say the new law will give them the money they need to help prepare sites that attract companies like Intel, which is building a $20 billion computer-chip manufacturing complex near Columbus. Their lobbyists told lawmakers that economic development is cutthroat between states, and large industrial buyers want “shovel ready” sites that are already hooked up to water, gas, electric and sewer. Gas companies have already been allowed under Ohio law to impose such a monthly charge for “prudently incurred” costs. HB201 expands when gas utilities can charge the fee to include helping to develop potential megaproject sites.Opponents of the bill, including a number of mostly Democratic lawmakers, the Ohio Manufacturers Association, and environmental groups, argued that it would allow utilities to make customers pay to assist private corporations and upgrade almost any part of their system in the name of economic development.“The problem with speculative, Field of Dreams, ‘If you build it, they will come,’ is if they don’t come, we and all ratepayers are left holding the bag,” said Kim Bojko, a lobbyist with the Ohio Manufacturers Association. HB 201 marks another win for Ohio’s natural-gas industry. DeWine recently signed GOP-authored measures to open up state parks to oil and gas drilling and declare natural gas as “green energy.” The state is set to put out drilling rights under thousands of acres of Salt Fork State Park to bid in early 2024. The utility companies say the new bill is necessary to prepare gas infrastructure at large scale industrial sites to entice buyers. Duke Energy lobbyist Amy Spiller said interstate competition for “megaprojects” (like Intel in Columbus or the Honda/LG Energy Solutions battery plant in Fayette County) is fierce, and buyers want land with immediately available gas, water, electric and sewer systems. It’s dubious that the new law is necessary given Ohio’s most recent state budget created a $750 millionAll Ohio Future Fund offering interest-free loans to help build out speculative economic development sites, according to Policy Matters Ohio, a progressive policy think tank.“HB 201 is yet another example of utilities’ shameless effort to secure larger returns on investments through last-minute amendments added to unrelated pieces of legislation,” wrote the organization’s Molly Bryden.

OPSB approves construction of natural gas pipeline in Butler County — The Ohio Power Siting Board on Dec. 21 approved Duke Energy Ohio’s proposal to replace 5.1 miles of natural gas pipeline located in the city of Monroe and Liberty and Lemon townships in Butler County.The Butler County Phase 2 Natural Gas Pipeline will connect the utility’s existing Dicks Creek, Yankee and Butler stations, upgrading aging infrastructure and enhancing natural gas delivery in the area.In separate business, the power siting board granted, in part, and denied, in part, applications for rehearing filed by various parties regarding the adoption of new administrative rules on all areas of OPSB jurisdiction, including the development of solar energy projects. The rules, found in Ohio Administrative Code Chapters 4906-1 through 4906-7, will be submitted to the Joint Committee on Agency Rule Review for review before taking effect. The board also granted requests to transfer ownership of the interconnection switchyards for the Madison Fields Solar facility in Madison County to American Transmission Systems, Inc. and the Nestlewood Solar facility in Brown and Clermont counties to Duke Energy Ohio.

With pipeline growth booming, the US agency in charge of safety struggles to keep up --The pipeline industry added thousands of miles of natural gas, crude oil and carbon dioxide pipelines to the national network in recent years. But the federal regulatory agency responsible for ensuring that vast system’s safety failed to grow at the same pace.Pipeline miles expand every year, and are expected to see even faster growth in the near future thanks to major federal laws. The 2021 infrastructure law provided $1 billion for grants for new natural gas distribution lines. And the climate, taxes and policy law Democrats passed along party lines and President Joe Biden signed last year included billions in tax incentives for carbon capture systems, including pipelines to underground storage sites in North Dakota, spurring a slew of new pipeline proposals in the Midwest.But neither bill added money for the pipeline safety program at the Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, or PHMSA, a 600-employee agency within the U.S. Department of Transportation that is responsible for guaranteeing the safety of pipelines that cross state lines.Kenneth Clarkson, a spokesman for the Pipeline Safety Trust, an advocacy group, said the agency has long lacked the funding it needs.“PHMSA has been historically underfunded, and unfortunately that is still the case,” Clarkson wrote in an email to States Newsroom. “The agency needs more resources to keep up with the safety of our nation’s millions of miles of pipelines, especially so as more pipelines are continually being added to that total.”Pipeline Safety Trust was founded to be a watchdog on industry and regulators in 2003 with money from criminal penalties imposed following the Olympic Pipe Line Company explosion in Bellingham, Washington in 1999. That disaster killed two children and an 18-year-old and caused at least $45 million in property damage after nearly 250,000 gallons of gasoline spilled from a ruptured pipeline and caught fire. PHMSA Deputy Administrator Tristan Brown told the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee’s Railroad, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee at a March hearing that the agency has had to work “leaner” as its responsibilities have grown without a subsequent rise in resources.“PHMSA’s oversight responsibilities continue to grow, both in terms of the types of facilities we regulate, as well as the number of facilities we regulate,” Brown told the House panel. “We have had to continuously operate relatively leaner as compared to our expanded universe of regulated facilities.”Brown is the top PHMSA official because the agency has not had a Senate-confirmed administrator since the end of the Trump administration. Biden has not nominated anyone for the role.PHMSA’s budget is the smallest of DOT’s eight agencies, not including the government-owned nonprofit Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation.Its annual appropriations are less than half what the next smallest, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, is allocated. PHMSA received $319 million in regular appropriations last fiscal year, with just more than half, $161 million, allocated for pipeline safety.As of March, the agency had 207 inspection and enforcement workers on staff. By comparison, the Federal Rail Administration employs nearly 400 safety inspectors. The Federal Aviation Administration employs more than 14,000 air traffic controllers.Asked by New York Republican Marc Molinaro in March why rulemaking at the agency took so long, Brown said PHMSA was overwhelmed with new responsibilities in a fast-growing area.“Natural gas, for example: triple what it was five years ago,” Brown said. “Carbon dioxide, hydrogen: $100 billion in incentives. We have zero people, zero full-time employees focused on that. Our ability to get things done is directly proportional to the resources that Congress gives us.” Molinaro said he didn’t accept that more funding would mean a better job by the agency.

90+ Enviro, Health, Community Groups Call for Ban on CO2 Fracking In New York | Food & Water Watch ---The gas industry – by a company called “Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions” – recently announced a proposal to drill and frack in New York using carbon dioxide (CO2), including test wells as soon as this spring. Almost a decade after New York historically led the nation and protected public health and the environment by banning high-volume hydraulic fracking, this dangerous proposal to get around our state’s fracking ban using CO2 poses many of the same threats to our water, health, and climate. Today, more than 90 organizations released a letter to Governor Hochul, Senate Majority Leader Stewart-Cousins, Speaker Heastie, and DEC Commissioner Seggos calling for a ban on CO2 fracking. Signatories include groups from the Southern Tier and across the state, including Sierra Club Atlantic Chapter, Natural Resources Defense Council, Food & Water Watch, Frack Action, NYPIRG, Earthjustice, Catskill Mountainkeeper, Concerned Health Professionals of NY, Physicians for Social Responsibility-NY, Environmental Advocates NY, and many others. The letter is available here: As the letter details, the proposed plan to transport waste CO2 to New York from other states, drill and inject high-pressure CO2 to release sequestered methane, and build new gas-fired power plants is reckless and would perpetuate our reliance on fossil fuels. As countless scientific studies about drilling and fracking demonstrate, fractures are not controllable and could cause the CO2 as well as naturally occurring radioactivity in the shale to migrate, threatening to contaminate our drinking water. High pressure CO2 is itself very dangerous, and ruptured pipelines can result in asphyxiation. This was tragically illustrated in Satartia, Mississippi when a CO2 pipeline exploded, leading to mass CO2 poisoning that left 45 people hospitalized. Additionally, high pressure CO2 injection underground poses significant risk of earthquakes. The organizations noted that they are deeply concerned that the CO2 fracking proposal would violate New York’s nation-leading climate law, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). Studies show that drilling and fracking operations and infrastructure are inherently leaky, releasing methane that is disastrous for the climate along with air pollutants that endanger public health. Drilling and fracking for fossil fuels, along with pipelines, gas plants, truck trips, and other infrastructure, is contradictory to the CLCPA. Food & Water Watch Northeast Region Director Alex Beauchamp said: “Southern Tier Solutions’ carbon capture fracking scam is as absurd as it is dangerous. This pie-in-the-sky proposal would endanger public health and the environment, while taking New York backwards on its critical climate goals. Governor Hochul must come out strong against this preposterous proposal and make clear that dirty energy has no place in New York.” Sandra Steingraber, PhD, co-founder Concerned Healthy Professionals of New York, said, “Everything that’s wrong with fracking—earthquake risks, radioactive releases, air pollution, threats to groundwater and public health—doesn’t go away when CO2 is swapped for water. As health professionals, we are well aware that liquefied CO2 is corrosive, accident prone, and behaves as a terrible asphyxiant that can acidify lung tissue on contact. Governor Hochul must ensure that upstate New York will not be used as a laboratory for reckless experiments conducted by the fossil fuel industry.” Press conference recording is available here.

The feds extended the deadline for the Southgate pipeline extension. Here's a refresher. --Federal energy regulators last week approved a three-year extension for Mountain Valley Pipeline to build a planned 75-mile offshoot of its main natural gas pipeline that would run from Pittsylvania County to North Carolina. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission gave Mountain Valley until June 18, 2026 to complete the Southgate extension, despite complaints that the project would cause air and water pollution and is not necessary. Progress on the Southgate extension has been tied to Mountain Valley’s progress on the 303-mile mainline that will deliver natural gas from the Utica shale fields in West Virginia into Pittsylvania. When FERC approved the offshoot in 2020, it made that approval conditional on Mountain Valley receiving the necessary permits for the mainline. But in June, the federal Fiscal Responsibility Act fast-tracked completion on the mainline by including a provision that mandated approval of the environmental permits tied up in lawsuits and prevented any further litigation against it. In issuing the recent extension, the commission said Mountain Valley hadn’t acted in bad faith by concentrating on the mainline in lieu of the extension. Before construction on the extension can start, FERC needs to issue a notice to proceed after confirming the project has received all state and federal permits it needs. Two state permits, an air permit from Virginia and a water permit from North Carolina, are still outstanding. Virginia previously rejected an air permit sought by the company to build the Lambert compressor station in Pittsylvania County, which would repressurise gas from the mainline in order to send it the rest of the way into Rockingham and Alamance counties in North Carolina. The compressor station was proposed to go near Chatham. The State Air Pollution Control Board rejected the air permit in December 2021 on the grounds that it didn’t meet the “fair treatment” requirements of the state’s 2020 Environmental Justice Act. The board noted that 32% of the population surrounding the site were Black, while Black people made up 20% of the state’s population.The rejection led to 2022 legislation that transferred permit approval authority from the air board to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.North Carolina has denied Southgate a necessary water permit twice, citing “unnecessary and avoidable impacts to surface waters and riparian buffers.” Shawn Day, a spokesperson for the project, said, “At the appropriate time, Mountain Valley intends to pursue all necessary permits and authorizations to complete construction of the MVP Southgate project.” Mountain Valley needs to consult with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to see if Southgate will have any impacts on the long-eared and tri-colored bats, which have been listed as endangered since the initial approval. The company will also need to reopen eminent domain proceedings in North Carolina if it continues to pursue private lands for the project. The company withdrew from those proceedings in 2022, and the one-year deadline to resume the cases has passed.

Update: Cheniere says it is not reducing Sabine Pass LNG expansion plans - LNG Prime -US LNG exporting giant Cheniere now plans to build two instead of three liquefaction trains as part of the Sabine Pass expansion project in Louisiana. Cheniere said the company is not reducing its growth ambition at Sabine Pass, and with this move it would achieve similar production with an optimized unit/cost footprint.Sabine Pass currently has a capacity of about 30 mtpa following the launch of the sixth train in February last year, while Cheniere’s three-train Corpus Christi plant in Texas can produce about 15 mtpa of LNG and is undergoing expansion.Earlier this year, Cheniere initiated the pre-filing review process with the US FERC for the Sabine Pass Stage 5 expansion project.The original plans included the construction of three large-scale liquefaction trains, each with a production capacity of about 6.5 mtpa of LNG, a boil-off-gas (BOG) reliquefaction unit with a production capacity of 0.75 mtpa of LNG, and also two 220,000-cbm LNG storage tanks.However, Cheniere now aims to construct two LNG trains with a nameplate capacity of about 7 mtpa each using ConocoPhillips liquefaction technology, according to a draft resource report filed with the FERC in November.“In short, we are not reducing our overall growth ambition at Sabine Pass. We continue to progress the commercialization of the expansion – an up to approximately 20 mtpa increase in capacity at our Sabine Pass facility, inclusive of estimated debottlenecking opportunities – and we look forward to advancing on our financial, regulatory and construction milestones to have it producing LNG by the end of this decade,” the spokesman said. The proposed Sabine Pass expansion facilities will be interconnected and operated with the existing terminal, while Cheniere is also proposing an increase in the authorized maximum loading rate of LNG carriers and simultaneous loading capabilities for the three existing jetties. Sabine Pass is proposing to increase loading to about 14,000 cbm per hour of LNG from the two new storage tanks to the existing marine berths. To deliver about 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas to the expansion project, Cheniere’s unit Sabine Crossing proposes to build a new, 48-inch diameter natural gas pipeline of about 5.3 miles in length extending from Jefferson County, Texas, and into the LNG terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. The Sabine Pass LNG terminal currently has approval to produce and export 1661.94 Bcf/y of LNG (33.01 mtpa). Cheniere said in the report the expansion project would produce an additional 843.15 Bcf/y of LNG, equivalent to about of 16.83 mtpa of LNG for export or 2,050 MMscfd. Also, the marine berths would be able to accommodate the total project exports of 49.84 mtpa, it said.

Work Continues on 20 Bcf/d of Pipeline Capacity for U.S. LNG Export Projects - Eight pipeline projects continue to advance in Texas and Louisiana to feed five LNG export projects that are currently under construction along the Gulf Coast. The pipelines have all been approved and some are under construction. They would add more than 20 Bcf/d of capacity to feed liquefaction trains coming online through the end of the decade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Natural Gas Pipeline Project Tracker. About 13.5 Bcf/d of capacity is currently being built. Some projects are under federal jurisdiction or state jurisdiction, EIA said. All five LNG export projects have one or more pipelines under construction.

US weekly LNG exports down to 22 cargoes - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decreased in the week ending December 20 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 22 LNG carriers departed the US plants between December 14 and December 20, six vessels less compared to the week before. Moreover, the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 82 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals were essentially unchanged week over week, averaging 14.6 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 1 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 9.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 2 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.3 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the period under review. The Freeport LNG terminal shipped four cargoes, and Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped three cargoes during the week under review. Also, the Cove Point LNG terminal shipped two cargoes, and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass shipped one cargo. The Elba Island LNG facility did not ship cargoes during the week under review. One LNG vessel with a carrying capacity of 3 Bcf docked for off-loading at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston Harbor in Massachusetts between December 13 and December 20, the agency said. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 16 cents from $2.33 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.49/MMBtu this Wednesday, the agency said. Moreover, the price of the January 2024 NYMEX contract increased 11.2 cents, from $2.335/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.447/MMBtu this Wednesday. According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging January 2024 through December 2024 futures contracts increased slightly to $2.564/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures decreased this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia decreased $2.47 to a weekly average of $13.30/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF decreased 84 cents to a weekly average of $10.89/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending December 21, 2022), the prices were $34.420MBtu in East Asia and $34.99/MMBtu at TTF, the EIA said.

February Natural Gas Ends Up in First Day as Lead on Cold Weather, Bullish Storage February Nymex natural gas futures closed the first day as the front-month contract up 12.0 cents, adding to early gains after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage withdrawal that surprised the market to the upside.The contract settled Thursday’s regular trading session at $2.557/MMBtu, above the intraday low of $2.412 and below the session’s $2.576 high.Cold weather outlooks pulled futures up early in the session and supported mixed activity in the spot gas market for natural gas traded for Friday, Dec. 29 through Sunday, Dec. 31, flow to accommodate business closures for the New Year’s holiday.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. was down 7.0 cents at $2.170 with the weekend inclusion.The February futures contract was further boosted at 10:30 a.m. ET after the EIA reported an 87 Bcf withdrawal from Lower 48 natural gas stocks for the week of Dec. 22 that was above most industry estimates. NGI modeled a 76 Bcf withdrawal ahead of the print. Reuters’ poll produced a median withdrawal prediction of 79 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal survey ranged from withdrawals of 72 Bcf to 82 Bcf, averaging 78 Bcf. “Bullish!” said one participant on the online energy platform Enelyst. However, the pull was well below the hefty year-earlier draw of 195 Bcf — when winter storms led to freeze-offs amid huge demand spikes — and the five-year average 123 Bcf withdrawal for the week. The total working gas supply stood at 3,490 Bcf, a still healthy 348 Bcf above the year-ago level and 316 Bcf above the five-year average.This was the second consecutive 87-Bcf storage withdrawal reported by the EIA. Gelber & Associates analysts noted that while temperatures were slightly milder and heating demand was lower week-over-week, power burn and LNG exports were higher, and Lower 48 production declined modestly. NatGasWeather said surpluses could increase to more than 375 Bcf, with the next several reports expected to print “decently lighter than normal.” The firm said weather was warmer than normal over most of the country this past week, the Christmas through New Year’s Holiday tends to bring lighter demand, and warmer weather is forecast for much of the next 10 days. Early estimates from Reuters for the week ending Dec. 29 ranged from withdrawals of 76 Bcf to 12 Bcf, with an average decrease of 56 Bcf. That compares with a withdrawal of 219 Bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average decrease of 97 Bcf. At midday, the American weather model trended warmer than the overnight outlook, especially for what was expected to be the coldest shot of the coming series for Jan. 5-7, NatGasWeather said. The meteorologists said this period is now not nearly as cold as it had shown a couple of days ago. But what might have held up prices is overnight data “teasing a frosty set up” over the country from Jan. 11-13, said the firm, while warning “that’s quite far out in time” and could trend warmer, “just as Jan. 1-8 did the past few days.” Natural gas futures could find additional support should colder winter weather outlooks hold up.

Williams Acquires Hartree’s Gulf Coast Storage Assets For $2B - Midstream giant Williams said Wednesday that it has reached a deal to acquire a portfolio of Gulf Coast natural gas storage assets from an affiliate of Hartree Partners LP for $1.95 billion, capping a busy year for storage acquisitions and expansions. The deal includes six natural gas storage facilities with a total capacity of 115 Bcf in Louisiana and Mississippi. Four are salt domes with a combined capacity of 92 Bcf, and two are depleted reservoirs with combined capacity of 23 Bcf. Williams also is to acquire 230 miles of gas pipeline with 30 pipeline interconnects to markets including LNG terminals and Williams’ Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco).

Cheniere's Corpus Christi LNG expansion project almost 50 percent complete - US LNG exporting giant Cheniere and compatriot Bechtel are moving forward with the construction work on the expansion phase at the Corpus Christi LNG export plant in Texas.Cheniere’s Corpus Christi liquefaction plant now consists of three operational trains with each having a capacity of about 5 mtpa.In June last year, Cheniere took a final investment decision on the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project worth about $8 billion and Bechtel officially started construction on the project in October.The project includes building seven midscale trains, each with an expected liquefaction capacity of about 1.49 mtpa.Cheniere’s unit Corpus Christi Liquefaction said in the November construction report filed with the US FERC that overall project completion for the Stage 3 project is 48.8 percent. Stage 3 engineering and procurement are 80 percent and 69 percent complete, respectively, while subcontract and direct hire construction work are 63.1 percent and 9.8 percent complete, respectively, it said.

Shell Shoring Up More U.S. Deepwater Natural Gas, Oil by Sanctioning Great White, Sparta - The deepwater Gulf of Mexico is getting renewed attention by Shell plc, which recently sanctioned two big projects in a row. In the Great White unit, a prolific oil- and natural gas-rich area of the deepwater, is set to expand with three wells, which would be processed through the Perdido platform in Mississippi Canyon, according to Shell Offshore Inc. The wells could result in another 22,000 boe/d via the Perdido spar, which already produces up to 125,000 boe/d at peak rates. Shell continues “to find ways to build” its position in deepwater, Executive Vice President Rich Howe said. “By expanding our Perdido development, we continue to unlock the greatest value from this exceptional resource. “This investment underscores Shell’s long-term commitment to the U.S....

Endangered Rice's Whale faces threat after 1.1 million gallon oil spill - After over a million gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico in November, one environmental advocate is raising concern for one of the most endangered whales in the world. In 2021, scientists discovered the Rice’s Whale, the only resident baleen whale in the Gulf of Mexico. “To discover a brand new species is amazing at this time in history. But then also, to find out that there’s only less than 100, some estimates say less than 50, and they only live in the Northeastern Gulf waters – these type of whales don’t usually like warm, tropical waters – but they do, so it was a new and exciting discovery.” So When Mia McCormick, advocate with Environment Florida, heard about the November oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, she was concerned.“We saw over a million gallons spill into the gulf off of the coast of Louisiana, and it did overlap with some of the habitat that the Rice’s Whale live in.”The effects on the whale after this oil spill are currently unknown, but McCormick is calling for protections.“So ultimately, we need to stop oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico, but in the meantime, we should start by restricting leasing activity and require reduced vessel speeds in the Rice’s Whale habitat specifically, so we can lower the risk of deadly strikes.”In October, NOAA fisheries denied a vessel speed limit and other protectionsfor the endangered whale. Despite this, McCormick encourages those concerned to write their legislators.

Kodiak, CSI Merger to Create Natural Gas Compression Giant, with Permian, Eagle Ford Prowess - The blitz of tie-ups in the U.S. oil and gas industry is continuing, with Kodiak Gas Services Inc. offering to buy CSI Compressco LP in a deal that would become the largest contract compression fleet in the industry with an estimated 4.3 million hp. The all-equity acquisition, valued at $854 million including debt, would deepen Kodiak’s position in key operating areas, particularly the Eagle Ford Shale and in the Permian Basin, where it would have about 2.8 million hp-plus within the most active basin in the country. “The increased scale provided by the industry’s largest contract compression fleet will allow Kodiak to continue to provide the highest level of service in the industry to our customers, many of which are themselves undergoing consolidation,”

Vital Energy Acquires Additional Working Interests in Recent High-Value Acquisitions in the Permian Basin - -- Vital Energy, Inc. today announced the acquisition of additional working interests in producing assets associated with the recent asset acquisition from Henry Energy and Henry Resources for total consideration of $55 million¹.The purchase will increase Vital Energy’s working interest in 45 wells by an average of 24%, increasing the Company’s estimated 2024 production by approximately 1,400 BOE/d (57% oil). The transaction is expected to increase Vital Energy’s 2024 Free Cash Flow² by approximately $20 million³, furthering Vital Energy’s deleveraging goals.The transaction is associated with the exercise of tag-along rights by owners of certain assets in the Henry acquisition that enable Vital Energy to purchase and finance the assets on the same terms as the Henry purchase and sale agreement, in which the Company’s shares were issued at $54.96. Vital Energy funded the transaction through the issuance of 627,000 shares of its common stock and 595,000 shares of its 2.0% cumulative mandatorily convertible preferred securities.

Lower 48 Oil, Natural Gas Permitting Tumbles in November, Led by 18% Dip in Permian -Oil and natural gas permitting in the Lower 48 fell by double-digits in November from a month earlier, driven by losses in the Permian Basin, according to Evercore ISI. The analyst firm, which each month tracks state and federal permitting, said a total of 2,565 permits were issued in November, down by 11% month/month (m/m). “The monthly decrease was mostly driven by losses in the Permian,” off by 18% m/m, or 209 fewer permits than in October. There also were permitting declines reported in the Eagle Ford Shale, down by 35 permits, or 11% lower. In the Powder River Basin, there were 89 fewer permits issued, off by 22% m/m. The Mississippian Lime reported a 29% decline m/m, down 64 permits.

Navajo families have concerns about cleanup efforts after an oil spill near Shiprock | KSUT Public Radio - A pipeline operated by a subsidiary of Navajo Nation Oil and Gas breached on December 11 near a school bus stop outside town, causing crude oil to flow across land used to graze cattle and into gullies that lead to the San Juan River. Some Navajo families who live next to the spill are asking for transparency from tribal officials about the severity of the accident and their plans for remediation. Beverly Maxwell is a member of the Navajo Nation and a resident whose land was impacted. “If you don't have clean water if you don't have clean land, you don't have clean air – you know, what's more important than that?” said Maxwell. After heavy rains later in the week, Maxwell says she saw oil flowing into a canal that eventually leads to nearby farms.

North Dakota Natural Gas Production Dips, Takeaway Capacity Concerns Forecast for 2024 - North Dakota natural gas production fell slightly in October because of an early wintry blast, but benign weather in the last two months of 2023 could lead to “great numbers” for oil and gas output, according to the state’s Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) director, Lynn Helms. Production averaged 3.4 Bcf/d in October, down 1% versus September, DMR data show. Producers captured and marketed 3.21 Bcf/d, or 94% of total production, down 1% from September’s capture rate. The price of natural gas delivered to Northern Border at Watford City decreased to $1.99/Mcf as of Dec. 13, down from $2.90 around the same time in November. Farther downstream on the same system, NGI’s Northern Border Ventura price averaged $2.070/MMBtu on Wednesday (Dec. 27).

California Strikes Remaining Subsidies for New Natural Gas-Fueled Infrastructure - California regulators pulled the remaining subsidies offered for constructing buildings that rely on natural gas or propane in a move to support decarbonization and incentivize electrification. After eliminating natural gas line extension subsidies for all mixed-fuel buildings in 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) earlier in December struck electric line extension subsidies for new mixed-fuel buildings beginning next July. The act marked the removal of the final subsidy. Subsidies are to continue for all-electric new construction. “Ending indirect incentives for natural gas system expansion helps us align state climate goals with our subsidies and financial incentives,” said Commissioner Darcie Houck.

Little River oil spill in Windsor under investigation | Windsor Star -- City workers remained on the scene of a likely oil spill in Little River on Friday but had yet to determine the cause of the leak or whether it had stopped. The city learned of the substance in Little River on Dec. 26, said city engineer Mark Winterton, Windsor’s commissioner of infrastructure services. The leak contaminated the river from Tecumseh Road East as far as the marina at Riverside Drive, a distance of several kilometres. “Our goal is zero oil but we feel like we reacted immediately once we became aware of it and employed the booms,” said Winterton. “We are prepared for these kind of things because they do happen on occasion. “We have several booms out there across the river in different locations and then we’ve employed a Vactor truck. It will scoop off oil on the top.” A vacuum truck operated by Hurricane Hydrovac was on the scene draining the substance from the river Friday morning. The city contacted the Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks, which played an active role in the assessment of the spill, said Winterton. City emergency services also responded but once it was determined there was no danger to life or property they disengaged, he said. EMS also determined the material was organic in nature. The Little River watershed serves as a drainage area for a large swath of the city’s stormwater system. The river itself drains into the Detroit River. The cause of the leak and how much material has actually spilled into the river has yet to be determined, said Winterton. The spill is “fairly extensive” but contained, he said. “But a little goes a long way on an oil spill.”

BC Regulators Deny FortisBC Proposal to Add Natural Gas Pipeline as Capacity Shortfalls Loom - FortisBC Energy Inc. was sent back to the drawing board to supply a growing customer base after Canadian regulators rejected a proposal for a C$327 million ($285 million) natural gas pipeline. The British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) in late December denied a certificate of public convenience and necessity for FortisBC’s proposed Okanagan Capacity Upgrade (OCU) project. The project would have included a new 406-millimeter diameter (16-inch diameter) natural gas pipeline spanning 18.6 miles from Ellis Creek to Chute Lake. FortisBC also would have added a pressure control station, a block valve station and decommissioned an existing pipeline. In its application filed in late 2020, FortisBC said OCU would be necessary to serve a forecast peak demand increase on its...

Experts Stress Natural Gas Infrastructure, Storage, Upstream Needs in Mexico - In 10 months, on Oct. 1, 2024, Mexico’s new president will take office, and the six-year term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador will end. Members of the Mexican energy industry told NGI’s Mexico GPI they are hopeful for a change in energy policies that have at times stalled and frustrated the sector during the past five years. The government of López Obrador has had a complicated relationship with private and foreign investors. They have limited access to necessary electricity and development permits, and halted exploration and production of shale gas. Industry experts such as Rosanety Barrios, who in December was announced as a member of the energy team of presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez of the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), told NGI’s Mexico GPI that short-term...

AES wraps up stake sale in two LNG terminals - US energy company AES has completed the previously announced sale of minority stakes in its LNG import terminals in the Dominican Republic and Panama, while the company also finalized an additional stake sale in the two facilities.AES announced in September it has agreed to sell minority stakes in its LNG import terminals for $190 million.These sell-downs of its businesses in the Dominican Republic and Panama expand its existing strategic partnership with Grupo Linda and add a new partnership with Grupo Popular’s subsidiary, AFI Popular, through one of its closed end funds.The agreements included the sale of 10 percent of AES’ business in the Dominican Republic to Grupo Linda and AFI Popular and the sale of 20 percent of AES Colon in Panama, also to Grupo Linda.However, AES said in a statement issued last week that it has sold additional stakes in the assets.AES will continue operating its businesses in the Dominican Republic and Panama, with an ownership interest of 65 percent in each business.The firm closed minority sell-downs of its businesses in the Dominican Republic and its AES Colon business in Panama for proceeds of $338 million.This includes the transactions announced in September for proceeds of $179 million after purchase price adjustments at closing, as well as sell-downs of additional stakes in the businesses through the expansion of existing partnerships with Grupo Estrella and AFI Popular, through one of its closed-end funds, for $159 million, it said.In total, AES sold 20 percent of its businesses in the Dominican Republic and 35 percent of AES Colon.

Gas prices up $2.06, diesel up $0.95 - Motorists will pay more for fuel when they go to the pumps on Thursday. E-10 87 is to move up by $2.06 to sell for $168.45 per litre and a litre of E-10 90 will also go up by $2.06 to sell for $174.56. Automotive diesel oil will move up by $0.95 per litre to sell for $170.99. Ultra low sulphur diesel will sell for $179.68 per litre following an increase of $2.25. The price of Kerosene will go up by $3.06 with that fuel to sell for $179.84. Headlines Delivered to Your Inbox Sign up for The Gleaner’s morning and evening newsletters. In the meantime, propane cooking gas will go up by $1.00 to sell for $72.44, while butane will move up by $1.10 to sell for $81.70 per litre. Retailers will add their mark-ups to the announced prices.

NG Energy's Colombian Gas Reserves Up Four Times Year-on-Year -- NG Energy International Corp. saw more than a fourfold increase in its natural gas reserves in Colombia this year following the drilling of a well and an agreement to develop pipeline infrastructure. Reserves, including proven and probable, jumped to 217.9 billion cubic feet, the Toronto company said in a statement Wednesday, from 48.7 billion cubic feet last year. Proven reserves increased to 68.3 billion from 26.8 billion a year ago. The announcement comes as Colombia looks to reverse declining gas reserves, which at an estimated 7.2 years are at their lowest since at least 2007. President Gustavo Petro has stopped awarding new oil and gas exploration licenses as part of a pledge to wean the nation off of its dependency on fossil fuels. “An increase in reserves is positive news for Colombia at a time when there’s a lot of pressure on the industry for new discoveries,” Chief Financial Officer Jorge Fonseca said in a phone interview. State oil producer Ecopetrol SA said it is analyzing importing gas from Venezuela starting at the end of next year. The increase in reserves was the result of drilling NG Energy’s Aruchara-3 well, which is part of the Maria Conchita field in northern La Guajira province, Fonseca said. The company also finalized plans to build a pipeline from its Sinu-9 block in the Lower Magdalena basin.

NFE in Brazilian LNG-to-power move - US LNG player New Fortress Energy said it had signed a definitive deal with Ceiba Energy to acquire a 1.6 GW capacity reserve contract, positioning NFE as a “leading” LNG-to-power company in Brazil.NFE said in a statement it would acquire the Portocem power purchase agreement in exchange for newly issued NFE redeemable series A convertible preferred stock and the assumption of certain liabilities from a subsidiary of Ceiba Energy.Ceiba Energy, backed by US-based investment firm Denham Capital, won a bid in December 2021 for a 15-year PPA to build, own, and operate a new 1.6 GW power plant in Brazil.The company’s Portocem LNG-to-power project, which includes an FSRU, won 30 percent of the total demand offered by Brazil’s power regulator Aneel and the Ministry of Energy. “Following customary closing conditions including regulatory approval for the transfer of the PPA in Brazil, the PPA will contribute firm capacity payments of $280 million per annum through its 15-year contract life,” NFE said in the statement.

Petroecuador Reaches New High for Oil Output - National oil company EP Petroecuador said it has reached a new production peak of 413,241 barrels of oil equivalent. The company reported adding a total of 404,290 barrels of oil per day (bopd), enabling it to reach its record production high, it said in a recent news release. Petroecuador attributed the increase to efficient strategies implemented by its technical team, advanced technology enhancing extraction processes, and the training of its personnel. A key factor to boosting the total output was the rise in production of the company’s Sacha field Block 60, located in the Orellana province, which reached 77,802 bopd, Petroecuador noted. For the year, around 1.8 million barrels of crude oil were extracted from 16 drilled wells. To further improve the production of the asset, the company is planning a drilling campaign in 2024 incorporating three more towers. Meanwhile, Petroecuador expects to increase its natural gas production by around 4 million cubic feet per day (MMcfpd) with a method called RIEGLESS. The company will carry out reconditioning and maintenance work on wells without towers in the natural gas fields AMSB-10 and AMSA 016S1 of Campo Amistad-Block 6, located 43.5 miles (70 kilometers) offshore in the Gulf of Guayaquil. A multidisciplinary team made up of company technicians and private companies will carry out well stimulation work to increase natural gas production volumes, continuing until 2025. Currently, the Amistad Field has production of 20.5 MMcfpd. The anticipated increase in natural gas output will allow Petroecuador to meet the existing demand for the resource in the country, the company said in a separate news release. The Amistad platform is the only offshore operation that Petroecuador operates. It has 17 drilled wells and three producing wells. Amistad’s accumulated production from January to November 2023 reached 7.05 billion cubic feet or 1.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Europe Eyes Venezuelan Oil in Diversification Drive - The recent easing of sanctions between the United States and Venezuela, marked by pivotal legal settlements and new commercial arrangements, represents a significant turning point for the global energy industry. These developments, particularly the resolution of disputes involving Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), signal the reinvigoration of Venezuela's oil and gas sector and hold substantial promise for energy-hungry Europe. The settlement between PDVSA and Refineria di Kòrsou (RdK), navigated by Dentons Europe LLP - led by David Syed, head of their Sovereign Advisory practice - brings to an end a longstanding impasse that had stifled the operational potential of RdK's refinery and oil terminal in Curaçao since 2020. Under this settlement, PDVSA will resume the supply of crude oil to RdK and initiate discussions on long-term gas supply, enabling RdK to recommence its operations. This development is a win for PDVSA and RdK and a strategic move that reopens crucial pathways in the Caribbean energy landscape. Furthermore, the collaboration between PDVSA and Repsol Exploración, S.A. to bolster investment in their joint venture, Petroquiriquire, S.A., heralds a new era of increased production in the Venezuelan oil and gas industry. A similar deal with ENI of Italy is imminently expected. The intention to significantly boost overall production underlines a commitment to revitalize the national economy of Venezuela, a country with one of the world's largest oil reserves but whose potential has been largely untapped due to political and economic challenges. For Europe, these developments couldn't be timelier. The continent benefits greatly, grappling with energy supply concerns exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and a push for diversification away from reliance on Russian energy sources. Venezuela's re-entry into the global oil and gas market as a significant player provides Europe with an alternative and potentially stable energy source. This could be instrumental in mitigating the current energy crisis and contributing to Europe's energy security. Venezuela's strategic geographic location and colossal oil reserves make it an ideal candidate for European nations striving to diversify their energy sources. Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven oil reserves, exceeding even those of Saudi Arabia. According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela's proven oil reserves are estimated to be around 303.8 billion barrels, representing a significant portion of the global oil supply. Before the sanctions and economic turmoil, Venezuela was producing about 2.4 million barrels per day. Though current production levels are significantly lower, there is potential for rapid growth given the country's abundant reserves. Oil output has already increased significantly over the last year under the leadership of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and Oil Minister Pedro Rafael Tellechea. As of 2021, the European Union's crude oil imports from Russia accounted for roughly 27% of its total oil imports, according to Eurostat. Replacing even a fraction of this with Venezuelan oil could significantly enhance Europe's energy security.

Oil spill blackens part of Venezuela's western coast -- An oil spill is sloshing tarry ooze onto beaches in the state of Carabobo along Venezuela's western coastline, several environmental groups said on Wednesday. The spill was first detected on Tuesday, Yohan Flores, a regional director of the Azul Ambientalistas NGO, told AFP. "A large part of the beaches of Puerto Cabello are affected," he said, referring to the country's largest port 210 kilometers (130 miles) west of the capital Caracas. State oil giant PDVSA has not addressed the spill even as NGOs such as the Caribe Sur Foundation say it originated at a waste lagoon near the El Palito refinery, one of the most important in Venezuela. A brief report from the National System for Risk Management noted a "spill of hydrocarbons from the waste lagoon" without offering more details. "A large part of the beaches of Puerto Cabello (in Carabobo state) are affected," said Flores, adding that marine fauna may also be affected. Teams from PDVSA, volunteers and fishermen all were seen working on cleanup. The National Organization for Rescue and Maritime Safety of Venezuela's Aquatic Spaces (ONSA) called for "environmental contingency" action. The last oil spill recorded in the area was in July 2020, when waste from the refinery also flowed into the sea. That accident contaminated the Morrocoy National Park, a tourist area with a score of islets with white sand beaches. Fishermen near Puerto Cabello said that they will not be able to fish for the next two months.

Venezuela oil giant says 80 percent of oil spill cleaned up -- Venezuela's state oil company said Thursday that an oil spill at a refinery on the country's western coastline was no longer "active" and that more than 80 percent of the affected area had been cleaned up. Wednesday's spill at the El Palito facility in the northwestern state of Carabobo occurred when heavy rainfall caused fluids to overflow from lagoons at the site, PDVSA said on social media platform X. "It is important to clarify that it is not heavy crude oil, but a discharge of hydrocarbons, wastewater or effluents that were directed to the coastal marine environment," the company said. "At this time there is no active source of spillage, there is no rupture of pipeline or system," it went on, adding that the "situation is being controlled by highly trained personnel under current safety protocols." The spill sloshed tarry ooze onto beaches, affecting several seaside resorts and causing environmental groups and fishermen to sound the alarm. Work was under way Wednesday to clean up the spill. The last oil spill recorded in the area was in July 2020, when waste from the same refinery flowed into the sea. That accident contaminated Morrocoy National Park, a tourist area with a score of islets with white sand beaches. Venezuela, which has one of the world's largest oil reserves, saw its production fall from 3 million barrels per day more than a decade ago to 850,000 barrels per day now, with production expected to surpass 1 million barrels later next year.

UK Deploys Warship To Guyana In Show Of Support Against Venezuela Territorial Claim While the recent panic over the risk of a Venezuela invasion of its neighbor Guyana may have come and gone, some (former) global superpowers are not taking any chances, and according to the FT, the UK will deploy a naval patrol ship off the coast of the tiny but rich Latin American nation in a show of support for the former British colony as it faces a territorial claim from its more powerful if insolvent communist neighbor.The deployment follows moves by Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s socialist president, to claim the vast, mineral-rich Essequibo region, which borders his country but has been part of Guyana - a member of the British Commonwealth and the only English-speaking nation in South America - for more than a century.Britain’s decision to dispatch HMS Trent later this month is a significant show of support for the government in Guyana’s capital Georgetown.The decision comes just days after the UK's new foreign secretary, David Cameron, fresh from career exile after his catastrophic handling of Brexit, said the UK would “continue to work with partners in the region to ensure the territorial integrity of Guyana is upheld and prevent escalation”.Meanwhile, UK foreign office minister David Rutley, visited Guyana last week to meet President Irfaan Ali and stress the UK government’s “unequivocal backing” for Guyana’s territorial integrity after the Venezuelan claim.Yván Gil, Venezuela’s foreign minister, responded angrily on social media platform X to that visit, saying: “The former invading and enslaving empire, which illegally occupied the territory of [Essequibo] and acted in an skilful and sneaky manner against the interests of Venezuela, insists on intervening in a territorial controversy that they themselves generated.As reported earlier this month, Maduro held a referendum at the start of December, in which Caracas claimed that more than 95% supported proposals including that Essequibo, which makes up two-thirds of Guyana, should become a Venezuelan state. Caracas subsequently authorised Venezuelan state-run companies to grant licences for exploration and exploitation in Essequibo and ordered new official maps including the territory, although the presidents of both countries agreed in a December 15 meeting not to use force in the dispute.

Venezuela Launches 5,000+ Troop Exercise In Response To UK Warship's Approach Just on the heels of the recent panic over the risk of a Venezuela invasion of its neighbor Guyana, fears which finally subsided over a week ago upon a mutual pact pledging that both would avoid direct conflict, the UK sent a warship to patrol off Venezuela's coast. Britain previously said it would dispatch the HMS Trent near Guyana by December's end as a significant show of support for the government in Guyana’s capital Georgetown, on concerns Nicolás Maduro would make moves to claim the vast, mineral-rich Essequibo region, which borders his country but has been part of Guyana - a member of the British Commonwealth and the only English-speaking nation in South America - for more than a century.A December 14 report in The Guardian suggested tensions were cooling fast: "The leaders of Guyana and Venezuela promised in a tense meeting that neither side would use threats or force against the other, but failed to reach agreement on how to address a bitter dispute over a vast border region rich with oil and minerals that has concerned many in the region," the publication said at the time. But on Thursday's there's been a new shocking development reversing this hoped-for state of 'cooler heads prevailing' and which raises the potential for the UK and Venezuela to directly clash in Caribbean waters.AFP reports breaking statements from Maduro's office as follows:Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday ordered more than 5,600 military personnel to participate in a "defensive" exercise, after Britain said it was sending a Royal Navy warship to waters off neighboring Guyana.Maduro said he was launching "a joint action of a defensive nature in response to the provocation and threat of the United Kingdom against peace and the sovereignty of our country."Prior to the current standoff the HMS Trent had reportedly monitored the Caribbean in search of drug smugglers as a military offshore patrol vessel. It is armed with heavy guns and typically carries a unit of Royal Marines and a combat helicopter.

Former BP Chief’s ‘Serious Misconduct’ Results in Steep Compensation Losses - The former chief of BP plc, Bernard Looney, is set to forfeit more than $40 million in compensation after he “knowingly misled” the board about his previous relationships with colleagues. Looney, who resigned abruptly in September, gave the board “inaccurate and incomplete assurances” as part of an investigation that began in 2022, according to the integrated major. The board noted that Looney was “dismissed without notice” effective in mid-December, tied to the finding of “serious misconduct.” “Following careful consideration, the board has concluded that, in providing inaccurate and incomplete assurances in July 2022, Mr. Looney knowingly misled the board,” BP stated Wednesday (Dec. 13). Looney acknowledged when he resigned three months ago that he had not been “fully transparent” in his disclosures about his work relationships.

Shell's QCLNG plant ships 1000th cargo - The Shell-operated Queensland Curtis LNG export plant in Australia has shipped its 1000th cargo since it started operations in May 2015, according to shareholder CNOOC.CNOOC’s gas and power unit said in a statement that the two-train 8.5 mtpa liquefaction plant on Curtis Island in Queensland has exported the milestone cargo on December 18 onboard the 174,000-cbm LNG carrier, Kool Firn.This 2020-built vessel, owned by CoolCo and chartered by a unit of LNG giant Shell, took about 70,000 tons of LNG.The project has produced a total of 66.21 million tons of LNG since May 2015, according to CNOOC Gas & Power.Shell’s QGC business also confirmed the departure of the milestone cargo from the QCLNG plant saying that the company was the first to deliver natural gas from wells drilled into coal seams from the Surat Basin to Curtis Island, and it also the first of the Queensland projects to reach 1,000 cargoes. Other two LNG plants on Curtis Island include the Santos-operated GLNG plant and the ConocoPhillips-led APLNG terminal.

Spot LNG shipping rates dip below $100,000 per day - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet fell sharply this week, while European and Asian prices continued to decrease as well. Last week, the Spark30S Atlantic decreased to $133,750 per day, and the Spark25S Pacific decreased to $103,500 per day. “LNG freight rates fell sharply week, with a 28 percent week-on-week decrease for Atlantic rates and a 26 percent week-on-week decrease for Pacific rates,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday. Afghan said that the Atlantic rate decreased by $37,250 to $96,500 per day, whilst the Pacific rate decreased by $13,500 to $103,500 per day. In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also declined from the last week. The NWE DES LNG for January delivery was assessed last week at $10.489/MMBtu and at a $0.740/MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price for January delivery is assessed at $10.206/MMBtu and at a $0.810/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said on Friday. He said this is a $0.283/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and the discount to the TTF widened by $0.07/MMBtu, when compared to last week’s January prices.

Eni Introduces Natural Gas to Congo’s First LNG Export Project - Eni SpA said Thursday that it has introduced natural gas to the Republic of Congo’s first LNG project. Eni said it introduced first gas to the Tango floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility offshore of the central African country just a year after a final investment decision was reached on Congo LNG. The project utilizes natural gas from the offshore Marine XII block. Once the commissioning phase is complete, Tango FLNG should produce its first cargo in 1Q2024, the Italian supermajor said. Tango has an annual liquefaction capacity of 1 billion cubic meters (Bcm)

Oman raises natural gas supplies to 29bln cubic metres - The Sultanate of Oman has raised its natural gas supplies to industrial estates and projects to over 29 billion cubic metres from the beginning of the year to the end of November. Industrial estates accounted for 240 million cubic metres of domestic natural gas consumption, an increase of 6.2 per cent compared to the same period last year. The share of industrial projects from natural gas stood at 28.8 billion cubic metres, an increase of 1.3 per cent compared to last year. The use of natural gas in oil fields increased to 12.3 billion cubic metres, an increase of 11.4 per cent, and in power generation stations to 7.9 billion cubic metres, an increase of 9.6 per cent over last year. Production and import of natural gas in the Sultanate of Oman saw an increase of 4.9 per cent to 49.4 billion cubic metres at the end of last November compared to 47.1 billion cubic metres at the end of the same month in 2022. This includes 10.1 billion cubic metres of associated gas production and 39.2 billion cubic metres from non-associated gas production and import. The increase in natural gas supplies to the industrial sector coincides with the sector’s expansion requirements and the execution of new projects in the sector particularly in promising industrial areas such as the Duqm Special Economic Zone which is witnessing a growth in the number of existing and planned projects. Duqm also hosts one of the most important petrochemical industry projects namely the OQ 8 refinery which recently began its trial operation by exporting shipments of high-quality diesel and is expected that the project will be officially opened soon.

U.S. Sanctions Reportedly Prompt Exodus from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 Project – LNG Recap - Foreign stakeholders have reportedly withdrawn from PAO Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project due to sanctions imposed against the facility by the United States, jeopardizing Russia’s efforts to significantly boost its liquefied natural gas trade. Kommersant cited unnamed sources who told the Russian newspaper that China National Petroleum Corp., China National Offshore Oil Corp.,TotalEnergies SE and a consortium of Japanese companies have suspended each of their 10% stakes in the project by declaring force majeure due to the sanctions implemented last month. As a result, Novatek may ultimately have to finance the 19.8 million metric tons/year project on its own and sell cargoes into the spot market, the newspaper reported. None of the companies have commented on the report.

Rise in Russian LNG Exports, Supply to China Can’t Stop Steep Decline in Gazprom Earnings - As the year draws to a close, earnings from Russia’s most valuable company, Gazprom PJSC, are forecast to fall nearly 40% from 2022 levels to around $24.3 billion. State-owned Gazprom, also the country’s top natural gas producer, recently disclosed its earnings have continued to fall as it navigates the fallout of Western sanctions, lower global gas prices and the halt of most of its pipeline exports to Europe after last year’s invasion of Ukraine. During the first half of the year, Gazprom’s net income fell to $3.1 billion, the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic surged in 2020. The exact decline in the company’s earnings is still unclear, as Gazprom hasn’t disclosed a full earnings report since last February. The company’s earnings were inflated by record... .

Gazprom Says Connected Nearly 900,000 Users to Network Gas in 2023 - Gazprom PJSC has connected 842,000 new users to Russia’s natural gas infrastructure during 2023. The company said in a media release that in 2023 Russian residents have signed some 1.081 million contracts with national gas infrastructure expansion operator Gazprom Gazifikatsiya, regional gas infrastructure expansion operators and independent gas distribution entities (GDEs). Gazprom said it has brought pipeline gas to the boundaries of private households and boiler houses of medical facilities and educational entities at no cost to the consumers. Out of the 1.081 new contracts signed, more than 842,000 (or 77.9 percent) have already been performed: gas pipelines have been laid to the boundaries of households. Three quarters of these works were performed by the GDEs of the Gazprom Group, the company said. The constituent entities of the Russian Federation provide persons entitled to benefits with subsidies for the construction of gas pipelines within the boundaries of land plots, as well as for the installation of in-house gas equipment. According to the instruction of President Vladimir Putin, this kind of financial aid is provided in the amount of at least RUB 100,000 ($1,087) per household, Gazprom said. Gazprom said that Gazifikatsiya and regional authorities are continuing a broad awareness campaign to inform the population about the procedure and advantages of additional gas grid expansion.

Russian oil output expected to hold steady in 2024 - Oil output in Russia, the third largest producer in the world after the United States and Saudi Arabia, is expected to be steady or even to increase next year as Moscow has largely overcome Western sanctions, analysts said. The government has said that Russian oil and gas condensate production is set to decline to 527 million metric tons (10.54 million barrels per day) this year from 535 million tons in 2022, as Moscow has restrained supply in line with its agreement with the OPEC+ group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. According to the poll, Russia may produce between 515 million tons and 530-538 million tons of oil next year, while exports will be broadly unchanged, at 250 million tons. "We anticipate no major changes in Russian output versus current levels. Increases in global demand will likely be offset by rises in output from the U.S.A., Venezuela, Iran, and others, keeping OPEC+ quotas largely stable," Ronald Smith, an analyst with Moscow-based BCS World of Investments brokerage, said. The West imposed wide-ranging sanctions against Russia, including an embargo on seaborne Russian oil imports and a price cap of $60 per barrel, after Moscow sent its armed forces into Ukraine in February 2022. Russia also defied predictions of severe declines in its oil supply, including from the Paris-based watchdog International Energy Agency (IEA), which in March 2022 said it was possible markets would lose three million bpd of Russian crude. Russia has managed to redirect all of its crude oil exports affected by Western sanctions to what it terms "friendly" countries. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, almost all of Russia's oil exports this year have been shipped to China and India. Under its OPEC+ agreement, Russia is curbing its crude output by 500,000 bpd until the end of 2024 and, separately, it also has pledged to reduce exports of oil and fuel by the same amount in the first quarter. "For 2024, Russian liquids production is forecast to remain steady with the previous year, averaging 10.6 million barrels per day," the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its latest monthly review. "In addition to project ramp-ups from several oil fields, there will be start-ups by Rosneft, Russneft , Lukoil, Gazprom, Neftisa and TenderResurs. However, overall additional liquids production is expected to be offset by declines at mature fields."

Refineries opt out Russian crude imports as furnace oil prices slide globally - Amid a global dip in furnace oil prices, local refineries in Pakistan are hesitating in importing Russian crude oil. The News reported, quoting industry sources, that the decreased demand for furnace oil, a by-product of Russian oil, has rendered the current pricing of Russian crude impractical for Pakistan’s hydro-skimming refineries. One source highlighted the need for a discounted price on Russian crude oil, given the reduced feasibility in the current market where furnace oil prices have plummeted from $80 per barrel to $60 per barrel since early December. Hydro skimming refineries in Pakistan primarily produce 55 percent of furnace oil from Russian crude oil, focusing on high-speed diesel and petrol. Facing a surplus of furnace oil, local refineries are actively seeking opportunities to sell in the global market as domestic demand for the fuel has dwindled. Industry officials expressed concerns about the impracticality of importing Russian crude oil when there is already a substantial quantity of furnace oil available for export at lower prices. Notably, the economic suitability of Russian crude oil for countries like India, with deep conversion refineries emphasizing diesel and petrol over fuel oil, was mentioned by another source. In an effort to manage their surplus, refineries have exported significant quantities of furnace oil in December. Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) exported 35,000 tonnes, Cnergyico exported over 70,000 tonnes, and Pak Arab Refinery (PARCO) exported 100,000 tonnes of fuel oil in the current month, according to industry sources. December sales data indicates a 34 percent decrease in fuel oil sales compared to the same month last year and a 33 percent drop from November this year. The deal between Pakistan and Russia for the supply of Russian crude oil was signed earlier this year, with the first order placed in April. PRL, which imported its initial 100,000-tonne cargo of Russian crude oil in June, has no plans for further imports by March next year, according to a top official. Cnergyico Refinery imported two shipments totaling 110,000 tonnes of Russian crude oil in October and November. The current market dynamics and furnace oil surplus contribute to the cautious approach of local refineries towards further Russian crude oil imports.

Indian Refiners Seek to Stockpile MidEast Crude amid Red Sea Attacks - Refiners in India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, are seeking to boost supplies from the Middle East and other nearby nations as recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea raise the risk of longer shipping time and higher costs, according to people familiar with the matter. Shippers turned cautious about entering the Red Sea in recent weeks due to multiple attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. That prompted massive diversions, with many ships taking a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, adding as much as three weeks to the voyage. Vessels carrying cargoes from the producers in the Mediterranean and North Sea are among those affected, as they travel the Suez Canal and Red Sea en route to Asia. Shipping companies are asking Indian firms to bear the risk premiums for deliveries via the usual route, said the people, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. The refiners are not willing to bear the additional liability and are scouting for alternative suppliers, they said. Indian refiners are concerned their margins may come under pressure due to a sharp rise in insurance and freight costs. However, they also need to keep pace with domestic demand, which is rising because of the South Asian nation’s rapid economic growth. State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. has already arranged crude oil from other sources, a company official said, but didn’t provide more details. The government is advising merchants to take longer routes and diversify energy imports, with greater emphasis on buying from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, officials from India’s trade ministry said on condition of anonymity. Talks are also underway with countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to strengthen maritime security cooperation in the Red Sea region, they said. A spokesperson from the ministry didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment. The flow of Russian oil from the Black Sea region may be affected and rerouted, leading to a higher premium for crude from the Middle East, said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. India’s refined fuel product exports to the EU too could be impacted, she said. Although, Indian refiners are concerned about supplies, there hasn’t been any impact on refinery run rates so far, the people said. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the situation in the Middle East, including the Red Sea attacks, with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday.

Oil spill in Ennore brings fishing to a standstill -- The Kosasthalaiyar river flows north of Chennai city, drains into the Bay of Bengal, and is the most important source of livelihood for 38-year-old fisherman M Santhosh Kumar. It now bears the scars of a large-scale oil spill mixed with floodwater in the aftermath of cyclone Michaung that battered Chennai, in early December. Kumar and more than 2,000 fishermen from the nine fishing villages of Ennore (a neighbourhood in north Chennai), have not ventured into the Kosasthalaiyar river, the Ennore Creek, and the Bay of Bengal since the beginning of December, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a red alert ahead of Cyclone Michaung. Cyclone Michaung ravaged Chennai with unprecedented rainfall of 45 cm in 36 hours on December 3 and December 4, leaving the city inundated. While the cyclone prevented fishermen from accessing the waters for one week, the oil spill that happened after the cyclone passed, has rendered the waters unfit for fishing, bringing the lives of fishermen in Ennore to a complete standstill. On December 4, crude oil from the Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL), a public sector refining company, reportedly leaked into the Kosasthalaiyar river, Ennore Creek, and the sea. This was exacerbated by floods because it resulted in a quick spread of the oil, confirms an expert (on condition of anonymity) from the Indian Institute of Technology. Media reports revealed that the oil spill spans 20 square kilometres, extending from the Kasimedu harbour to the Kosasthalaiyar river, adjoining Santhosh Kumar’s hamlet. When the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board’s (TNPCB) technical team ventured to find out the source of the oil spill they reported that, “there is some stagnant storm water along with oil, adjoining to the storm outlet near South Gate of Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, which is slowly contributing to oil traces.” The Additional Chief Secretary of the Environment, Climate Change, and Forest Department, Supriya Sahu, issued a statement which mentions that the clean-up activity at Ennore was completed on December 20, 2023. The statement claimed that 105.82 kiloliters of oily water and 393.5 tonnes of oily sludge had been removed. However, when this correspondent visited the affected regions of the Kosasthalaiyar river and Ennore Creek, an oil slick still blanketed the waters, the boats, and the pristine mangroves—a situation that is a source of concern for the fishermen. Oil has painted the boats black, ruined several fishing nets, and killed the fish, directly affecting the livelihoods of fishermen. In the past week, Kumar has spent all his evenings on a rickety boat tethered along the shores of the Kosasthalaiyar river. “I go home after my children sleep and leave early in the morning before they wake up,” shares Kumar. “Every Christmas, I buy new clothes for my kids and ten other kids in the orphanage nearby. I did not know how to tell my children I could not afford them new clothes this year. So, I avoided meeting them,” he adds. Having endured the dual impact of Cyclone Michaung and an oil spill, fishing families now confront an uncertain future. For fishermen to now venture into the sea, their boats need repairs, the marine ecosystem must be restored, and, most importantly, the water should be clear of oil. As the timeline for any of these developments remains unclear, the women are growing anxious. “We are begging our neighbours for some onion and tamarind,” says 33-year-old N Ratna of Ennore Kuppam. She claims that her savings of Rs. 5,000 are now exhausted and she has pledged her gold chain to keep the cooking pot boiling at her home.

Qatar to supply crude oil to Shell in five-year deal -Qatar has agreed to supply Shell in Singapore with up to 18 million barrels of oil a year for five years in what the Gulf state's energy company said was its first ever five-year crude sales deal. QatarEnergy said it had agreed with Shell International Eastern Trading Company to supply up to 18 million barrels each year of Qatar Land and Qatar Marine crude oils starting in January. “We are delighted to sign our first ever five-year crude sales agreement. This agreement further strengthens QatarEnergy’s relationship with Shell," QatarEnergy Chief Executive Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said in a statement.

Saudi minister expects $600bln in petrochemical investments by 2030 — Saudi Investment Minister Khaled Al Falih expected investments of up to $600 billion in the Kingdom’s petrochemical sector by 2030. Speaking at the Saudi-Japanese Investment Forum hosted in Riyadh on Monday, the minister announced the signing of 14 agreements and memorandums of understanding between Saudi and Japanese entities during the forum. These agreements span various sectors, including water, telecommunications, information technology, energy, financial services, and healthcare. Al Falih noted that 45 major Japanese companies are participating in the forum, which will showcase promising opportunities for these companies to engage in large-scale projects in the Kingdom, such as NEOM and the Red Sea project. He highlighted that the Japanese delegation includes 14 startups with unique technologies capable of transforming entire industries. “The Kingdom welcomes these startups into its market, supported by reliable funding sources, as part of Saudi efforts to foster entrepreneurship and technology and harness the benefits of the digital revolution.” The minister mentioned the increasing demand for borrowing in the Kingdom, exceeding $1.5 trillion. Japanese banks and asset managers continue to contribute to this.

Iran and Iraq share common position regarding OPEC, Iranian minister says (Reuters) - Iranian oil minister Javad Owji on Wednesday thanked Iraqi officials for cutting oil output, saying the two countries had a common position regarding both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ grouping which includes allies such as Russia. The minister's comments came as he signed a number of preliminary agreements with his Iraqi counterpart in Tehran, state media reported. "Iran and Iraq have a common position regarding OPEC and OPEC+. We thank the Iraqi officials for the voluntary cuts they implemented to improve (oil) prices. We have had negotiations about future issues related to OPEC and OPEC+," Owji said without giving any further details. Iraq has said it will begin voluntarily cutting its oil output by 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the start of January to the end of March as part of a wider voluntary agreement by some of the OPEC+ group. The agreements signed in Tehran on Wednesday include memoranda of understanding (MoU) to develop shared oil and gas fields, particularly Sindbad in Iraq and Khorramshahr in Iran, Iran's Borna news agency said without giving further details. Owji said he was hopeful that the development of shared fields would begin soon. "We reached acceptable agreements on the renovation of Iraqi refineries by Iranian experts and a committee to follow up on this issue has been created," Owji added.

Oil prices remain mixed amid geopolitical risks - Crude oil prices remained mixed on Tuesday amid fears about Red Sea supply disruptions. As of 1125 hours GMT, Brent, the international benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, gained $0.08 (+0.10 percent) to reach $79.15 a barrel. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main oil benchmark for North America, went down by $0.14 (-0.19 percent) to $73.42 a barrel. Brent ended the last week higher by 3.29 percent while WTI registered an uptick of 2.98 percent.Similarly, the price of Russian Sokol increased by $0.14 (+0.19 percent) to $73.36. Arab Light prices witnessed an increase of $0.15 (+0.18 percent) to reach $82.03 a barrel. On the other hand, the price for Opec Basket went down to $80.84 a barrel with a decrease of $0.40 (-0.49 percent). The OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of Saharan Blend, Girassol, Djeno, Zafiro, Rabi Light, Iran Heavy, Basra Light, Kuwait Export, Es Sider, Bonny Light, Arab Light, Murban and Merey. Earlier, oil futures posted the biggest weekly gain since October last week due to fears about the Red Sea supply disruptions. More maritime carriers are avoiding the Red Sea due to attacks on vessels carried out by the Houthi militant group, which says it is responding to Israel’s war in Gaza. The attacks have caused global trade disruptions through the Suez Canal, which handles about 12 percent of worldwide trade. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd and Hong Kong’s OOCL have joined a growing list of major shipping companies that have said they would avoid the Red Sea. Hapag-Lloyd will reroute 25 ships by the end of the year from the key waterway as freight rates and shipping stocks have increased because of the disruption.

Oil drops almost 2% as investors watch Red Sea developments (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday, eating into the previous day's gains as investors monitored developments in the Red Sea, where shippers are returning despite further attacks on Tuesday. Brent crude futures settled down $1.42, or 1.8%, at $79.65 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.46, or 1.9%, to $74.11. Danish shipping company Maersk said it has scheduled several dozen container vessels to travel via the Suez Canal and Red Sea in the coming weeks after calling a temporary halt to those routes this month after attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia. France's CMA CGM also said it was resuming passage through the Red Sea after deployment of a multinational task force to the region. "I think we have to wait and see whether the increased naval patrols and rerouting of ships lead to a decline in attacks," . Both the Brent and WTI benchmarks settled more than 2% higher in the previous session as the latest attacks on ships in the Red Sea prompted fears of shipping disruption. The prospect of a prolonged Israeli military campaign in Gaza remained a major driver of market sentiment. Israeli forces pummelled central Gaza by land, sea and air on Wednesday, a day after Israel's Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told reporters the war would go on "for many months". Elsewhere, oil loadings at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk were suspended because of a storm. However, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near the port was open, Kazakhstan's energy ministry said. U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week by 1.84 million barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. Oil output in Russia, the third largest producer in the world after the United States and Saudi Arabia, is expected to be steady or even to increase next year as Moscow has largely overcome Western sanctions, analysts said.

WTI Extends 'Death Cross' Losses After API Reports Another Unexpected Crude Build -Oil prices pumped and dumped today after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebel militia's attacks on tankers sparked supply concerns overnight which were then completely forgotten about as US Treasury yields puked lower during the day (and Maesrk reportedly scheduling several dozen ships to move through the Suez Canal, suggesting that the world’s leading shipping firm is not afraid of the Houthi attacks - or at least is hopeful about US protection).Meanwhile, demand concerns also loom over the market, particularly in China where strong demand over the first nine months of the year has started to moderate, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth U.S., in a note."The market expects that approximately 800,000 of the 1.2-1.6 million barrels-per-day growth next year will come from China, with jet fuel leading the charge," she wrote. "The lack of confidence in China's economy in 2024 remains the market's biggest concern followed by fear that U.S. production will continue to beat estimates as it did in 2023."The cautious sentiment, however, creates a low bar for positive surprises in 2024, Babin said, in contrast to a 2023 where expectations of massive inventory draws were too hard to live up to.Oil ended lower ahead of the API inventory data.

• Crude +1.837mm (-2.4mm exp)
• Cushing
• Gasoline (+100k exp)
• Distillates (+700k exp)

After the prior week's surprise crude build, expectations were for a 2.4mm crude draw last week. But once again, crude stocks unexpectedly built by 1.837mm barrels...WTI was hovering just below $74 ahead of the API print after a wild day, and extended losses on the unexpected build...

WTI Holds 'Death Cross' Losses After Unexpected & Large Crude Draw --Oil prices have extended their losses from yesterday with WTI back below $74 following last night's unexpected crude inventory build reported by API. Technicals are also weighing on crude prices after WTI triggered a 'death cross'... Crude had risen about 8% since its December low as Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea forced tankers and other ships to divert on longer voyages, boosting costs. Despite a US-led task force to protect the key waterway, nearly half of the container-ship fleet that regularly passes through the Red Sea is currently avoiding the route. Although “the attacks in the Red Sea are likely to keep markets on edge,” signs of inventory builds in the US “may exert downward pressure on crude oil prices,” said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. DOE:

1. Crude -7.11mm (-2.4mm exp) - biggest draw since August 2023
2. Cushing +1.51mm
3. Gasoline -669k (+100k exp)
4. Distillates +741k (+700k exp)

Completely flipping the API script, the official data showed a large crude inventory draw of 7.1mm barrels (the biggest since August). Cushing stocks rose for the 10th week in a row, Distillate inventories up for 5 straight weeks while Gasoline stocks drew-down for the first time in six weeks...

Oil Market Retraces Gains Amid Easing Red Sea Shipping Concerns The oil market fell on Thursday as concerns over shipping disruptions along the Red Sea route eased. According to a shipping schedule, Denmark's Maersk will route almost all container vessels sailing between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal from now on while diverting only a handful around Africa. The crude market posted a high of $74.40 overnight before it continued to retrace its previous gains. It traded to $72.69 in the morning ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. Following the release of the EIA’s petroleum status report, which showed a larger than expected draw of over 7 million barrels on the week, the crude market initially moved higher towards the $74.00 level. However, the market later erased those gains and sold off, retracing more than 50% of its move from a low of $67.98 to a high of $76.18 as it posted a low of $71.72 ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled down $2.34 at $71.77 and the February Brent contract settled down $1.26 at $78.39. The product markets also ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 6.76 cents at $2.5563 and the RB market settling down 6.98 cents at $2.0852. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected by 7.1 million barrels in the week ending December 22nd. It reported that U.S. exports of total petroleum products in the latest week increased to 7.2 million bpd, the highest level on record. The EIA also reported that U.S. Midwest refinery utilization increased to 101.7%, the highest on record. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks increased to 52.4 million barrels, the highest level since April 2022.On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s state news agency said, citing the full royal speech addressed to the kingdom's advisory Shura Council, that Saudi Arabia has worked to support the stability and balance of global oil markets by playing a pivotal role in establishing and maintaining the agreement of the OPEC+ alliance.Denmark's Maersk will sail almost all container vessels travelling between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal from now on while diverting only a handful around Africa. A shipping schedule showed that while Maersk had diverted 26 of its own ships around the Cape of Good Hope in the last 10 days or so, only five more were scheduled to start the same journey. By contrast, more than 50 Maersk vessels are set to go via Suez in coming weeks. However, Maersk said alliance partner Mediterranean Shipping Company continued to divert all MSC vessels via the Cape of Good Hope for the time being, regardless of date or point of departure and the direction they were sailing in. On Wednesday, Hapag Lloyd said it still considered the situation too dangerous to pass through the Suez Canal, adding that it planned to review the situation on Friday. North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources reported that the state’s oil production averaged 1.24 million bpd in October, down 3.7% on the month.

Oil prices settle down 3% as Red Sea shipping disruptions ease (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 3% on Thursday as more shipping companies said they were ready to transit the Red Sea route, easing concerns about supply disruptions as Middle Eastern tensions stay elevated. The more active Brent crude futures for March delivery settled down $2.39, or 3%, at $77.15. Brent futures for February delivery , which expired after settlement, fell 1.3% to $78.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by $2.34, or 3.2%, to $71.77 a barrel. On Wednesday, oil prices dropped nearly 2% as major shipping firms began returning to the Red Sea. Denmark's Maersk will route almost all container vessels sailing between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal from now, and divert only a handful around Africa, a Reuters breakdown of the group's schedule showed on Thursday. France's CMA CGM is also increasing the number of vessels travelling through the Suez Canal, it said earlier in the week. "The perception is that the Red Sea route is reopening and will bring supply to market weeks faster," Major shipping companies stopped using Red Sea routes and the Suez Canal earlier this month after Yemen's Houthi militant group began targeting vessels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a much larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which limited price declines for awhile. Later, prices fell further, likely as traders focused on a bulk of the draw coming from the U.S. Gulf Coast region, where refiners are scrambling to clear inventories to avoid high taxes on storage at the end of the year. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 7.1 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 22, EIA data showed, while analysts polled by Reuters had expected a draw of 2.7 million barrels. Crude oil stocks at the U.S. Gulf Coast fell by 11.03 million barrels, the biggest decline since Aug, the data showed. Investors expect interest rate cuts in Europe and the U.S. in 2024, which could boost oil demand.

U.S. crude oil sheds more than 10% in first annual decline since 2020 - U.S. crude oil closed out the year more than 10% lower as bearish sentiment has taken over due to worries that the market is oversupplied from record production outside OPEC. The West Texas Intermediate contract for February shed 12 cents, or 0.17%, to settle at $71.65 a barrel on Friday. The Brent contract for March lost 11 cents, or 0.14%, to settle at $77.04. U.S. crude and the global benchmark booked the first annual decline since 2020 despite ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East due to the devastating war in Gaza. WTI is down 10.73% for the year, and Brent has lost 10.32%. Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday on worries that militant attacks on shipping in the Red Sea would disrupt global trade and crude supplies. While fears of escalation in the Middle East have triggered brief spikes in crude prices, traders are primarily focused on the supply and demand balance. Record U.S. production The U.S. is producing crude at a record pace, pumping an estimated 13.3 million barrels per day last week. Output is also at a record in Brazil and Guyana. The historic production outside OPEC has collided with an economic slowdown in major economies, above all China. OPEC and its allies, meanwhile, have promised to cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, but traders apparently have little confidence that the bloc's policy will bring the market into balance.Oil production outside OPEC, above all in the U.S., is expected to more than cover demand growth in 2024, according to theInternational Energy Agency. Global oil demand growth is expect to fall by half to 1.1 million barrels per day next year, while output outside OPEC is expected grow by 1.2 mbd.The shift in crude supply from the Middle East to the U.S. and other Atlantic countries is "profoundly impacting the global oil trade," the IEA said in its December outlook. The U.S. was responsible for two-thirds of the growth in supply outside OPEC this year. This is challenging efforts by producers in the Middle East to defend their market share and lift oil prices, according to the IEA. OPEC seems to have little room to maneuver, with production cuts falling on deaf ears. Brazil has agreed to ally itself with the bloc, but it is not clear what that means for markets. CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC in December that U.S. production this year has reached levels that surprised even her. She had a message of caution for the industry. "It would be prudent of U.S. producers to be careful in terms of putting too much supply in the market," Hollub said. The Occidental CEO and Morgan Stanley do see U.S. crude prices bouncing back next year with a barrel of WTI averaging about $80. Wells Fargo has a lower forecast with WTI averaging $71.50 a barrel next year. While the market is focused on the supply and demand picture, Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets told investors to watch developments in the Middle East closely. "Anything that brings more direct confrontation with Iran and the United States is what you have to watch," Croft said Friday on CNBC's "Squawk Box." Three U.S. troops were injured Monday in a drone attack in Iraq carried out by Iran-backed militants. President Joe Biden then ordered retaliatory strikes on militia sites. And attacks by Iran-backed militants in Yemen on vessels in the Red Sea caused global shipping companies to reroute some traffic from the Suez Canal around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. The situation is also escalating on Israel's northern border with Lebanon. Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Tuesday that his country is facing a "multiarena war" from seven areas: Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. "If you look at the situation in the Middle East, I think it is far too soon to write off the risks there," RBC's Croft said.

Houthis and Saudis Commit to New Ceasefire and Roadmap for Peace - The warring sides in Yemen have agreed to a new ceasefire and to work on a UN-led roadmap for peace, UN special envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg announced on Saturday.A shaky truce between the Houthis and the US-backed Saudi-led coalition in Yemen has held relatively well since April 2022, but no lasting peace deal has been signed. The announcement from Grundberg came after a series of talks between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, which has been based in Riyadh since 2014.Grundberg’s office said the two sides agreed “to a set of measures to implement a nationwide ceasefire, improve living conditions in Yemen, and engage in preparations for the resumption of an inclusive political process.” The UN envoy will now “engage with the parties to establish a roadmap under UN auspices that includes these commitments and supports their implementation.”The peace deal involves the payment of Yemeni civil workers living in Houthi-controlled areas, the easing of the blockade on the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, resuming more flights from the Sanaa airport, and the opening of roads around Taiz, a Yemeni city that has been under a Houthi siege.The Guardian first reported the existence of a Yemen peace deal and said the US was threatening to kill it over Houthi attacks on Israeli-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which have come in response to the Israeli onslaught on Gaza. The US could scuttle the agreement by redesignating the Houthis as a “foreign terrorist organization,” which would make the payment of civil workers and easing of the blockade impossible.For their part, the Saudis appear determined to follow through on the peace deal, as Riyadh has been urging the US not to strike the Houthis directly in response to the Red Sea attacks. The US launched a naval task force and official military operation in the Red Sea and has intercepted Houthi drones and missiles but has so far not bombed targets in Yemen. The war in Yemen has killed at least 377,000 people since 2015, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf nations intervened to fight the Houthis with full support from the US. More than half of those killed in the war died due to starvation and disease caused by the US-backed coalition’s brutal bombing campaign and blockade on Yemen.

Yemen's Houthis Claim US Missile Nearly Hit Tanker From Russia in Red Sea - Yemen's Houthi movement has claimed a missile from a US warship exploded near a tanker from Russia in the Red Sea. The tanker is owned in Gabon and was travelling from Russia. The missile came from a US battleship targeting Yemen's naval forces, news organisation Al Arabiya reported on Sunday, citing comments from a Houthi representative. The tanker is owned in Gabon and was travelling from Russia, according to the report. "Countries bordering the Red Sea must realize the reality of the dangers that threaten their national security," the Houthi representative was cited as saying. Commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea has come in for a spate of attacks from the Houthis in recent weeks in a response to the worsening conflict in Gaza. A tanker in the Indian Ocean was also targeted for a drone attack on Saturday, with the attack reportedly being launched from Iran.

Unidentified attackers blow up oil pipeline in Yemen after fuel price hike - (EFE). – An unidentified group of assailants blew up a key oil pipeline on Tuesday in Yemen’s oil-rich central province of Marib, amid escalating tensions between local authorities and tribal communities over a recent fuel price hike, security sources told EFE. The explosion, the second this week, caused a fire and significant damage to the pipeline, disrupting the flow of crude oil from the Jannah fields in neighboring Shabwa province to the Safer refinery in Marib, sources told EFE on condition of anonymity. Technical teams rushed to the scene to contain and extinguish the resulting fire at the facilities in Marib, a major oil production center about 190 kilometers northeast of the capital, Sana’a. The city is also the main base for forces of the internationally recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia, fighting Iran-aligned Houthi rebels who have been trying to take over the province’s oil fields since 2020. On Sunday, unidentified attackers blew up another pipeline carrying crude from Marib’s Raidan oil field to the refinery. Tensions have been simmering in Marib for several days due to growing discontent among local tribesmen over fuel price increases imposed by local authorities last week. These increases have sparked protests by armed tribesmen demanding a reduction. On Monday, unidentified assailants ambushed a military vehicle in the city of Marib, killing three soldiers, and another attack the same day killed the driver of a fuel tanker. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Chinese, Iranian and Indian Warships Are Now in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden By John Helmer - A Russian military blog post posted on Thursday, December 21 at 11:33 Moscow time, has revealed the hitherto secret positions of all warships in the area which the Pentagon has announced for its OPERATION PROSPERITY GUARDIAN.The fresh data and the open map (lead image) were not available when yesterday’s report was published at 09:32 Moscow time of Russia’s “two-track” strategy for opposing the US and NATO, and for protecting Russian oil shipments while the Houthi drone and missile operations are under way against Israel. No Russian Navy vessel is in the area at present although Russian crude oil cargoes are moving through the Red Sea with Iranian and Houthi agreement. Because these ship movements are defying US and NATO sanctions, it has been decided in Moscow to negotiate safe passage with Iran and Yemen rather than deploy the Russian Navy to protect them. However, the new combined US and NATO operation, targeting the Houthis and their Iranian support and supply systems, increases the possibility of a direct American, allied, or false-flagged attack on a tanker carrying Russian oil.In yesterday’s morning report, I indicated that “the current whereabouts of the [Chinese] warship group has not been reported in the open press.”The Russian source map is now reporting that the Chinese Navy’s 45th Escort Task Force, comprising the Type-052 destroyer Urumqi, the Type-547 frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu were at berth at the Chinese base at Djibouti as of Wednesday, December 20.The Russian map also reveals that the Iranian vessel MV Behshad is in a standing position in the Red Sea (lead image, top left of map). According to the Russian source, it is operating as an electronic surveillance, command and control centre to monitor friendly state ship movements – Russian, Chinese, Indian – and also hostile vessels of the US, British and French navies, tracking their positions; and relaying the data to Iran and probably to shore positions in Yemen. Although US media and Pentagon statements accuse the Ansar Allah government in Yemen and Houthi forces of acting as Iranian proxies in the war against Israel, there has been no disclosure before now of this vessel in the Red Sea.According to the western vessel tracking service VesselFinder, the Behshad is a “general cargo ship” flagged by Iran. It reportedly sailed from the port of the Iran Shipbuilding and Offshore Industries Complex (ISOICO) to reach its current position, which VesselFinder confirms in the southern half of the Red Sea as of fifteen minutes ago. The western source reports the vessel is at anchor in 6.5 metres of water.In the Pentagon announcement of December 18, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin claimed that “Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.” The new Russian intelligence now makes clear that the UK, France and Spain are already in the region, with the US.After Austin’s statement, his Italian counterpart announced that Italy is dispatching a frigate “to protect the prosperity of trade and guarantee freedom of navigation and international law…to increase the presence in the area in order to create the conditions for stabilization, avoid ecological disasters and also prevent a resumption of the inflationary push.”The Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias followed the Italian to say that Greece too is sending a frigate to join the US operation. Dendias is claiming the reason is that Greece is “the country with the largest ocean-going fleet [and so] has a primary interest in preserving the freedom of maritime zones and protecting the lives of seafarers.” What he means is that the involvement of Greek shipowners in the sanctions-busting Russian oil trade has been so profitable, Dendias wants to protect the Greek tankers and their owners; and at the same time avoid the embarrassment of being so disloyal to the US and European Union sanctions regime.For the time being, no Russian Navy vessel is reported in the Red Sea area, although reports indicate that the submarine Ufa is heading eastwards across the Mediterranean with a surface support vessel, and is likely to transit the Suez Canal and the Red Sea soon.For analysis of current Russian operations, plans, and policy, click to read this. For the full map display, including the Israeli port of Eilat and the Persian Gulf ports and naval bases, click to open for an enlarged view. The presence of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy’s destroyer Yang Man-chun was reported when it left its home port in September to be for a six-month mission to combat piracy and threats against cargo shipments headed to and from Korea. The map reveals it is currently off the Somali coast, near Indian, British, and US Navy vessels, as well as the Japanese Navy’s destroyer, JS Akebono. This warship has been in “training” with the USS Mason and the Eisenhower carrier squadron, but the Japanese are claiming it is engaged in “maritime security patrols in the GoA [Gulf of Aden], but is not involved in the new Operation Prosperity Guardian.” Operationally, US Navy releases indicate that the Japanese and the Korean destroyers are “working in coordination with U.S. Naval Forces Central Command” to combat both Somali pirates and Houthi operations.

India Deploys Three Warships To Waters Near Iran After Tanker Attack --The Indian Navy has deployed three guided missile destroyers to the Arabian Sea in response to an alleged drone attack on an Israeli-linked chemical tanker last week. New Delhi also uses long-range maritime patrol aircraft for “domain awareness,” the defense ministry reported Monday night. On Saturday, the Liberian-flagged MV Chem Pluto, a Japanese-owned tanker traveling 370km off the coast of India, was reportedly hit by a kamikaze drone, according to the Pentagon.The Israeli-linked tanker had been on its way from Saudi Arabia to India, according to maritime security firm Ambrey. The Indian Navy Washington blamed the attack on Iran, saying the drone had been launched “directly” from the Islamic Republic. “We declare these claims completely worthless,” said Nasser Kanaani, spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, on Monday.“Such claims are aimed at projecting, distracting public attention, and covering up for the full support of the US government for the crimes of the Zionist regime in Gaza,” he added.Saturday's drone attack came less than a week after the US announced the formation of the so-called Operation Prosperity Guardian, described by US officials as a new “coalition of the willing” that seeks to counter the threat posed by Yemen in the Red Sea.Although the Yemeni armed forces have been conducting the attacks against Israeli-linked vessels of their own accord, the Pentagon insists Iran is somehow involved.

US Allies Reluctant to Join Anti-Houthi Red Sea Naval Coalition - While the US is trying to put on a united front to prevent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, many US allies are reluctant to participate in the task force that’s been formed, formally known as Operation Prosperity Guardian,Reuters reported on Thursday. The Pentagon claims 20 countries are participating in the operation, but the US has only announced 12. “We’ll allow other countries, defer to them to talk about their participation,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters last week. Even some of the countries the US said were members of the coalition have issued statements distancing themselves from it. After the US announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian and said Spain was a participant, Madrid denied its involvement. The Spanish Defense Ministry said it “will not participate unilaterally in the Red Sea operation.”Italy, which was also included in the US announcement, said it would send a frigate to protect Italian shipping interests but made clear the deployment was not part of the US-led operation.Notably absent from the coalition is Saudi Arabia, one of the US’s main partners in the region. The US has backed Riyadh in a war against the Houthis since 2015, but Saudi Arabia is now seeking peace and fears its involvement could provoke Houthi attacks on its oil infrastructure. Bahrain is the only Arab country that the US said was part of the operation.The Houthis started the attacks against Israel-linked shipping due to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and said they won’t stop until the siege ends. Countries are likely reluctant to participate in the US-led coalition because they don’t want to appear to be supporting the Israeli massacre, which has killed over 21,000 Palestinians.On Thursday, the US announced new sanctions targeting a financial network allegedly tied to the Houthis over the attacks in the Red Sea. There’s no sign the Houthis will back down in the face of US sanctions or other actions.

US Tries to Reassure Shippers of Red Sea Safety - The US military is trying to reassure shipping companies that a multinational force is making it safe to sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal even though attacks from Yemen-based Houthi rebels show no sign of stopping. The Pentagon is “engaged with industry on a near-daily basis to gauge needs and provide reassurance that the international community is there to help with safe passage,” Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Bryon McGarry, a Defense Department spokesperson for the Middle East and Africa, said Thursday in an emailed response to questions. So far, that’s not proving enough for most shipping lines to gamble that a drone or missile aimed at their vessels won’t be one that gets past the defenses. “It will take a little while for shippers to get a sense about the security situation,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine officer and senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “If it turns out that the US and the coalition can maintain safe passage, then I think they’ll come back. But right now they really can’t be sure.” Cancian said in an interview that some shippers will remain “more risk-averse than others. Ones that have connections with Israel might be more reticent.” The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have said they’re targeting ships linked to Israel to show support for Palestinians, though ships without direct links to Israel also have been singled out. On Thursday, the USS Mason, a guided missile destroyer, shot down a missile and a drone over the southern Red Sea, according to US Central Command. “There was no damage to any of the 18 ships in the area or reported injuries,” Central Command said in a Thursday night post on X, the former Twitter. Half of the container-ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is avoiding the route now because of the threat of attacks, according to new industry data. Many tankers and container ships are resorting to the longer — and costlier — route around the southern tip of Africa, which may lead to higher prices for oil and a variety of consumer goods. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s No. 2 container line, said it’s preparing to resume Red Sea passages “as soon as operationally possible.” But even Maersk has cautioned that “the overall risk is not eliminated in the area,” and the company said it would “not hesitate” to re-evaluate the safety situation for its vessels and employees.

Israel's Military Strikes Hezbollah Command Center In Serious Escalation This weekend has witnessed a significant escalation between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah along the southern Lebanese border. Israeli media reported that a Hezbollah command center has been attacked. "The IDF says fighter jets have hit a Hezbollah military headquarters in Lebanon in response to attacks on northern Israel today, including one that left a soldier moderately wounded," TOI reports.This came following Hezbollah attacks on multiple Israeli military and civilian positions. The IDF then expanded its artillery shelling. While since Oct.7 exchanges of fire have been daily, the weekend saw an expansion of the frequency of these strikes.Northern Israel's Kibbutz Menara was attacked in the Saturday flare-up in violence. The northern Israel community said: "The harsh reality is that from the beginning of the war, dozens of missiles were fired towards the kibbutz, most of them anti-tank missiles. As a result, at least 86 out of 155 apartments were affected with various degrees of damage," according to an official statement issued by the Kibbutz. On Friday some 20 rockets were fired on Israel from Lebanon within only a 24-period. Early in the Gaza conflict, some days might have witnessed a handful of rockets and mortars fired in what has remained a "limited" front. But it's a deeply worrying sign that the 'norm' has now become dozens of projectiles exchanged on any given day.Soon after Oct.7, Israel began evacuating dozens of towns and settlements near the border, to within 2km of it, after Hezbollah rockets began raining down. At this point Israel says at least 80,000 of its citizens are still forced to stay away from their residences amid the Hezbollah threat. They have effectively become temporary refugees. In Gaza, the IDF issued a new casualty count over the weekend, as follows: The Israel Defense Forces announced Sunday the names of nine soldiers killed in fighting in the Gaza Strip throughout the previous day, bringing the number of troops killed over the entire weekend to 14, as the military deepened its offensive against the Hamas terror group. Five soldiers of the Combat Engineering Corps and a paramedic were killed by an anti-tank guided missile that hit a Namer armored engineering vehicle they were in, in southern Gaza. Another four were killed by bombs in two separate incidents during battles with gunmen in central Gaza. The deaths bring the number of troops killed since the start of the ground operation in late October to 153.

Israel kills Iranian general in Syrian strike - Israel has killed a high-ranking Iranian general in an airstrike in Syria, according to Iranian state media. The strike killed Seyed Razi Mousavi, an adviser to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, in the Sayida Zeinab neighborhood of the capital Damascus. The IRGC is a branch of the Iranian military. Iran’s state-run news agency reported Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Israel will pay for Mousavi’s death. Raisi said Mousavi was a close associate of the deceased Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Israeli military targeted Mousavi after he entered a farm in the area, allegedly one of several offices for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran. The strike comes amid continued clashes between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Israeli strikes killed two other generals in Syria earlier this month. It has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets in government-controlled parts of Syria in recent years. Israel has said strikes in Syria were targeting Iranian-backed groups that have supported the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad, but it usually does not acknowledge its strikes in Syria.

Iran vows Israel ‘will pay’ for death of military leader -- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi vowed retribution after Israel reportedly killed a high-ranking general in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria on Monday.In a statement, Raisi said that Israel “will certainly pay for this crime,” The Times of Israel (TOI)reported.“Without a doubt, this action is another sign of frustration, helplessness, and incapacity of the usurping Zionist regime in the region,” Raisi said in the statement. Brig. Gen. Razi Mousavi was reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Damascus suburb of Sayida Zeinab, the Iranian Tasnim news agency reported Monday. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari declined to comment on the alleged airstrike at a Monday press conference, TOI reported.

Iran dismisses Western criticism of its hike in uranium enrichment, says part of peaceful nuclear programme -Iran's foreign ministry on Friday rejected criticism by France, Germany, Britain and the United States of its increase in uranium enrichment, saying this was part of its peaceful nuclear programme. "Enrichment at 60% level in Iran's enrichment centres has always been and will continue to be in accordance with the peaceful needs of the country and fully under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency," foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani told state media.

Iran Atomic Chief: Claims of Escalated Enrichment Untrue, Nothing New in Nuclear Work - On Wednesday, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, said that Western media reports of acceleration of uranium enrichment were totally unfounded, suggesting the US was hyping the claim as an attempt to distract from the goings-on in the Gaza Strip.“We are proceeding with our current activity within the framework of the regulations,” Eslami told reporters at the sidelines of a cabinet meeting. He added Iran is continuing to enrich uranium to 60%, stating “we have neither changed our work nor expanded our capacity.”The US claimed, citing the IAEA, that Iran has tripled their production of “near weapons-grade” uranium in recent weeks, saying since November, they were up to approximately 9 kg per month whereas in June they were producing only 3 kg.This is typical US hype about Iran’s production, centering its allegations on the untruth that 60% enrichment is “near weapons-grade,” when weapons-grade is more than 90% purity, something Iran has never attempted to produce.Even if Iran has increased the 60% rate of production, which Eslami insists they have not, it is a huge leap to convert the uranium further to weapons-grade, even with their best centrifuges. The fact that they’ve never tried to set things up to do so would make this a trial-and-error process.If we grant that, given enough time, Iran might be able to overcome this obstacle, it would still take 40-50 kg of 90% uranium to even attempt to produce a simple atomic bomb. That’s more than it sounds like, as increasing enrichment involves the separation of the U-235 and eliminating the rest, which is waste. In this process, the resulting mass necessarily goes down, so 9 kg of 60% uranium would produce a considerably smaller amount of 90% enriched uranium – the minimum needed to even think of making a weapon.If Iran pulled all of this off, they would still need to conduct a test detonation to prove that their weapon design worked. If the test succeeded – and it might not, the first detonation by multiple nations struggled greatly with the atomic yield – all that is purely theoretical.Beyond the fact that Iran would just have wasted 40-50 kg on a test explosion, they would probably have used most of their stockpile in doing so. However, assuming they had enough weapons-grade material to go ahead, they’d next have to work on the difficult process of miniaturization to try to make the weapon in a deliverable form.All in all, this is a lot of hoops to jump through to get from a small but active 60% enrichment, the rate of which sounds massively overstated, to a functional, deliverable atomic bomb. Even in the best case, this would take many years to accomplish, and would require Iran to fairly publicly admit they were headed down that road, something which would invite a US attack.

Israel Routinely Dropping US-Supplied 2,000-lb Bombs In Dense Civilian Areas As civilian casualties in the Israel-Hamas war continue to mount -- surpassing 20,000 from a population of just 2 million -- alarm is growing over Israel's all-too-eager use of a particularly devastating weapon: the 2,000-pound MK-84 bomb. Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas on Earth. For most other militaries, that would be cause for restraint, particularly where the MK-84 is concerned, given its 3,280-foot hazardous blast radius. However, as the IDF presses its campaign against the militant group Hamas and its elaborate tunnel system, it's exhibiting an unusually high tolerance for civilian harm. Proportionally, the rate of damage to civilian buildings in Gaza is already triple what Nazi Germany suffered from Allied bombs in World War II. On Friday alone, Israel reportedly killed more than 90 Palestinians, including women in children, when it leveled two houses in two different areas of Gaza. One particularly vivid display of the MK-84's sheer power -- and Israel's lack of restraint -- came with the IDF's Oct. 31 strike on Jabalya, in northern Gaza, which obliterated a large residential area. “[That strike is] something we would never see the US doing," Larry Lewis, research director at the Center for Naval Analyses, tells CNN. “It certainly appears that (Israel’s) tolerance for civilian harm compared to expected operational benefits is significantly different than what we would accept." For perspective, consider that the US military used only one MK-84 bomb during its entire fight with ISIS. However, it's poured an astounding 5,400 of them into Israel's arsenal since the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion of southern Israel. Defying IDF assurances that it seeks to minimize civilian casualties, a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery suggests that Israel has even dropped more than 200 MK-84 bombs in the area of South Gaza where it told Palestinians to flee for safety. The IDF has brushed aside inquiries about its use of the extraordinarily destructive bombs. "Questions of this kind will be looked into at a later stage," a spokesman told the Times, adding that the IDF “takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.”“The devastation that we’ve seen for communities in Gaza is unfortunately co-signed by the United States,” John Chappell of the DC-based Center for Civilians in Conflict tells CNN. “Too much of it is carried out by bombs that were made in the United States.” Expect that damning fact to be long-remembered by the survivors of Israel's Gaza campaign -- and millions of others who sympathize with them. Whether one supports the US government's arming of Israel or not, nobody should be so naive as to think it doesn't endanger American lives -- particularly when you consider the type of people who now control Israel's arsenal.

Egypt’s Gaza peace proposal gets cool reception - Egypt’s peace proposal for Hamas to give up power in the Gaza Strip in exchange for a permanent end of hostilities in the region has been met with a cool reception from both sides. A senior Egyptian official and a European diplomat familiar with the proposal told The Associated Press that the plan would call for a phased release of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza and the creation of a Palestinian government of experts to oversee Gaza and the West Bank. The Egyptian official said Egypt worked on the details of the plan with Qatar and presented it to Israel, Hamas, the United States and multiple European countries.But Israel and Hamas both did not seem enthusiastic to accept the plan, although neither directly rejected it entirely.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told members of his Likud Party that he is focused on Israel continuing with its offensive to remove Hamas from power in Gaza, saying the fight will be expanding in the coming days. Netanyahu also said the battle will be long and the fight “isn’t close to finished.” Hamas has not officially responded to the proposal, but top official Izzat Rishq said in a statement that it will not negotiate without a “complete end to the aggression.” “Our people want to stop the aggression, and are not waiting for a temporary or partial truce for a short period of time that will be followed by more aggression and terrorism,” Rishq said. Two Egyptian security sources told Reuters that Hamas and Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian militant group in Gaza, have rejected the proposal, but officials from both groups denied to the outlet what the sources said. Pressure has risen on Israel over how it is conducting the offensive in Gaza, with the death toll surpassing 20,000, according to Palestinian health officials. At least 68 people were killed in arecent Israeli strike in central Gaza. President Biden has somewhat increased his criticism of Israel’s approach in recent weeks as the war has continued and casualties mount. The war has raged for more than two-and-a-half months since Hamas, which is recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, European Union and several other countries, launched an attack on Israel on Oct. 7. The attack claimed the lives of 1,200 people, and more than 200 in the country were taken as hostages in Gaza.

UNICEF: 'Deadliest Year on Record' for Palestinian Children in the West Bank -As Tel Aviv’s brutal bombing campaign and ground operations in the Gaza Strip have killed over 21,000 people, mostly women and children, a violent Israeli campaign of terror is ongoing throughout the occupied West Bank.The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) issued a statement on Thursday, describing 2023 as the “deadliest year on record for children in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.” Adele Khodr, the UNICEF regional director for the Middle East and North Africa, says violence resulting from the Israeli occupation is “reaching unprecedented levels.”Khodr notes that “children living in the [occupied territories] have been experiencing grinding violence for many years, yet the intensity of that violence has dramatically increased” since the Hamas attack on October 7 and the subsequent launch of the Israeli onslaught.For Palestinians, prior to this month, this year was already one of thedeadliest on record. Before the end of September, more than 220 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli forces, including over three dozenchildren. That figure included 187 people who were murdered in the occupied territories and another 37 killed – mostly amidst a smaller bombing campaign – in the Gaza Strip.“Violence [in the occupied West Bank] has killed 124 Palestinian children and 6 Israeli children since the start of 2023,” according to the UNICEF statement. The report highlights that 83 of these murders have taken place since October 7. Khodr added that 576 children have been injured, with others detained by Israeli authorities.

Over 1,000 Children in Gaza Have Had One or Both Legs Amputated Since Oct 7 - International aid workers visiting the Gaza Strip are relaying the horrific situation Israel is inflicting on the Palestinians. UNICEF reports over 1,000 children have lost legs. Israel is forcing the 2.3 million residents of Gaza into increasingly small areas that lack the ability to accommodate basic needs for survival.UNICEF spokesperson James Elder said, “Around 1,000 children in Gaza have lost one or both their legs.” He told journalists in Geneva that “every single child is enduring these ten weeks of hell and not one of them can escape.” Due to the conditions in Gaza, as well as the lack of aid, doctors are often forced to conduct surgeries in unsanitary facilities and without painkillers. “Not only were they amputated without anesthesia, but many of them were amputated in a very quick fashion,” he said. Dr. Ghassan Abu Sitta, a London-based surgeon who traveled to Gaza to treat patients, told Middle East Eye that having to perform these operations without anesthetic was “one of the most difficult things I’ve had to do in my career.” At a November press conference, he said, “One night, at Al-Ahli Hospital, I performed amputations on six children.” The UNICEF official said that even if children recover from the amputation, they do not escape the hell of the threat of death. “As a parent of a critically sick child told me, ‘Our situation is pure misery…I don’t know if we will make it through this.’” Spokesperson Dr. Margaret Harris added that WHO staff in Gaza spoke of not being able to walk in the emergency wards “for fear of stepping on people” lying on the floor “in severe pain” and asking for food and water. She called the situation “unconscionable” and said that it is “beyond belief that the world is allowing this to continue.” The Israeli military has destroyed most hospitals in Gaza. The medical facilities continuing to operate face frequent attacks and a lack of supplies. A Washington Post investigation recently found that the Israeli Air Force is using 2,000-pound bombs near hospitals. Elder went on to say that the Israeli military operations make civilians face the constant threat of death. He explained, “Where do children and their families go? They are not safe in hospitals. They are not safe in shelters. And they are certainly not safe in the so-called ‘safe’ zones.” The safe zones are “tiny patches of barren land, or street corners, or half-built buildings, with no water, no facilities, no shelter from the cold and the rain and no sanitation.” In recent weeks, experts have warned that forcing Palestinians into safe zones with no aid or infrastructure will lead to famine and epidemics. Aid groups have already estimated there are 100,000 cases of diarrhea and 150,000 respiratory infections. In addition, 570,000 Palestinians in Gaza are in a state of starvation. Elder warned the combination of malnutrition and disease will be lethal for the population. “An immediate and long-lasting humanitarian ceasefire is the only way to end the killing and injuring of children, and child deaths from disease, and enable the urgent delivery of desperately needed life-saving aid,” the UNICEF spokesperson explained.

Israel's Security Agency Ignored Warning from Gaza Source About October 7 Attack - Months before the October 7 attack on southern Israel, the Israeli security agency Shin Bet received a warning from one of its sources in Gaza that Hamas was planning to carry out a “big move” shortly after Yom Kippur, which took place on September 25 this year, Israel’s Channel 12 reported. The report said Shin Bet dismissed the warning as insignificant, and the intelligence did not make it to senior officials in the agency or its chief, Ronen Bar. Shin Bet sources said the lack of corroborating intelligence and the fact that the source only recently started talking to the Israeli agency contributed to the tip not being taken seriously, although they later admitted the source was considered highly reliable. The tip was just one of many pieces of intelligence that was ignored or not taken seriously by the Israeli security establishment, which led to Israel failing to prevent the October 7 Hamas attack. The New York Times reported in November that Israel had obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the October 7 attack more than a year before it took place, but Israeli military and intelligence officials did not believe Hamas was capable of carrying it out. The Times report said the document Israel obtained “did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters” and added that Hamas followed the blueprint with “shocking precision.” According to Haaretz, Israeli military officials also ignored warnings from women in the Israeli Defense Forces who worked as “spotters” on the Gaza border. The women spent their days watching surveillance footage and reported unusual Hamas activity for an entire year, but their warnings were not taken seriously.

Netanyahu Says He's Looking for Countries to 'Absorb' Palestinians from Gaza - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a meeting of his Likud party on Monday that he’s working to bring about the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and looking for countries willing to “absorb” them,” Israel Hayom reported.“Our problem is countries that are ready to absorb them, and we are working on it,” Netanyahu said. His comments are the latest sign that Israel’s ultimate goal is to cleanse Gaza of its 2.3 million Palestinian residents.Netanyahu said the world is “already discussing the possibilities of voluntary immigration” and pointed to comments from former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who is currently running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Haley said last week that Palestinians in Gaza should migrate to “pro-Hamas” countries.Netanyahu said that a team must be set up to “ensure that those who want to leave Gaza to a third country can do so. It needs to be settled. It has strategic importance for the day after the war.”Last month, Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel penned an op-ed for The Jerusalem Post calling for the “voluntary resettlement” of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to other countries around the world. Two members of the Israeli Knesset wrote a similar op-ed for The Wall Street Journal that said Western nations should accept Palestinian refugees.While Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have framed the plan as “voluntary resettlement,” Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza is making much of the enclave uninhabitable. About 90% of Gaza’s population has already been internally displaced. A leaked document drafted by Gamliel’s Intelligence Ministry said pushing all 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza into Egypt was the ideal scenario for the Israeli government. But Egypt has refused to take in any Palestinian refugees, forcing Israeli officials to look elsewhere to facilitate their planned ethnic cleansing.

Netanyahu Vows to Expand Operations in Gaza, Says War Isn't Close to Finished - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to expand military operations in Gaza and said the brutal assault on the besieged enclave is not close to being finished.“We are not stopping. We are continuing to fight, and we will be intensifying the fighting in the coming days, and the fighting will take long and it is not close to concluding,” Netanyahu said on Monday.The following day, the Israeli military said it was expanding ground operations in refugee camps in central Gaza after Israeli airstrikes pounded the area. Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Tuesday that Israeli operations in Gaza will continue for “many months.”The comments about increased operations and a long war come after US officials have said they want Israel to wrap up its current phase of operations, which involves constant airstrikes and ground offensives, and transition into more targeted attacks on Hamas leadership. But there’s no indication Israel is listening to the US advice, and the Biden administration continues to provide unconditional military aid.Netanyahu made similar comments while visiting an IDF intelligence unit. “We are continuing the war, and are intensifying the fighting in the southern Gaza Strip and other places. We will fight to the end, with the help of the most advanced technology,” he said.Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israel’s bombardment killed 241 Palestinians and wounded 382 in the past 24 hours. The Palestinian death toll is close to 21,000, including over 8,000 children.Many more could end up dying from hunger as a recent report using data from the UN and other aid agencies operating in Gaza found over 570,000 Palestinians in the Strip are starving and facing famine-like conditions.

Erdogan On The Attack Again, Says Netanyahu 'No Different Than Hitler' --Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has continued to heap denunciations and insults on Israel in relation to its military operation in Gaza and the immense civilian death toll. Since the Israeli military's major offensive in the wake of Oct.7, Erdogan's verbal attacks have grown, taking Turkey-Israel relations to a historical low-point. This time Erdogan played the 'Hitler card' after having already called Israel a "terror state". He said Wednesday at an event in Ankara: Sharpening his rhetoric, Erdogan said Turkey would welcome academics and scientists facing persecution for their views on the conflict in Gaza, adding Western countries supporting Israel were complicit in what he called war crimes. "They used to speak ill of Hitler. What difference do you have from Hitler? They are going to make us miss Hitler. Is what this Netanyahu is doing any less than what Hitler did? It is not," Erdogan said.Turkey's president continued in the blistering speech, adding: "He is richer than Hitler, he gets the support from the West. All sorts of support comes from the United States. And what did they do with all this support? They killed more than 20,000 Gazans."But even in the midst of what are now weekly denunciations coming from the Turkish presidency, Ankara still maintains commercial times with Israel, though trade has fallen significantly since Oct.7.Israeli Prime Minister responded with his own counter-attack, telling Erdogan he's the "last one who can preach morality." He took to X to say, "Erdogan, who commits genocide against the Kurds, who holds a world record for imprisoning journalists who oppose his rule, is the last one who can preach morality to us."The timing of the exchange is interesting given Turkey's military has in the last days been stepping up strikes on Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria, in retaliation for deaths of 12 Turkish soldiers in Iraq over the weekend.Israel has for years quietly given assistance to northern Iraq's Kurds toward the realization of an autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. Israel has also supported US efforts to assist Syrian Kurds and deny Damascus' ability to access its own oil and gas fields in northeast Syria.

Backlash Over Israel's Video Of Hypothetical Hamas Christmas Day Attack On Seoul -- Israel is once again in hot water over its controversial PR efforts meant to lessen the growing international criticism over the soaring civilian death toll in Gaza as the IDF widens operations across the Strip.Israel's embassy in Seoul, South Korea has released a video which depicts a major Hamas attack on the Republic of Korea on Christmas Day. It features a little girl and her mom going through a harrowing kidnap ordeal. It starts with the little girl singing Christmas carols at her school, only for the joyful and serene setting to be erupted by air raid sirens after which all hell breaks loose. Among the Israeli embassy's objectives was to help people from "far East Asia" understand the situation and trauma of Oct.7 and the ongoing war with Hamas.But it appears this objective has utterly backfired as South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately condemned the video and asked for it to be removed from the Israeli embassy's social media channels.The video appeared Tuesday and was taken down on Wednesday. It was also posted to the official government account of Israel on X, but was also deleted there as well.South Korea's foreign ministry said, "The killing and kidnapping of Israeli civilians by Hamas cannot be justified, but the Israeli Embassy’s production and distribution of a video drawing parallels to the security situation in another country was deemed inappropriate.""We have conveyed our position to the Israeli Embassy in South Korea, and the Israeli side has taken measures to delete the video in question," the statement added.Watch the one-and-a-half minute since-deleted video below:The video is filled with scenes of gunshots, inbound missiles, explosions, and masked terrorists in all black manhandling the mother as she's taken away on a motorcycle - all clearly meant to convey the terror of Oct.7 events. According to one description: The woman – covered in blood – is then abducted by an armed assailant, and forcibly separated from her daughter, it described. The footage is accompanied by details of Hamas’s attack on southern Israel on October 7 and subtitles that read: “Imagine if it happened to you. What would you do?”

India’s turnaround on Palestine has more than meets the eye - Indian diplomacy is ending 2023 with a momentous turnaround. What began as a course correction necessitated by the torrential flow of events in West Asia is assuming strategic overtones.Truly, the aberration in India’s policies can be traced to the UPA rule (2004-2014) but it is under the period since then 2014 that they accentuated phenomenally and began creating contradictions undermining national interests. This aberration also led to a serious erosion of India’s strategic autonomy in a transformative international environment.India’s voting pattern in the United Nations with regard to the Israel-Palestine conflict is lately marked by a calibrated distancing from Israel. Only a few weeks ago, Israel’s ambassador in Delhi bullishly described the Indian stance as one of “100% support” to his country. But that is no more the case today.Delhi has rejected the repeated Israeli entreaties to declare Hamas as a terrorist organisation, marking its independent opinion regarding the ecosystem of resistance movements. Indeed, this is a highly significant distinction that Delhi is making vis-a-vis the Israeli and Western narrative about Hamas. although India has not hesitated to condemn the violence directed against Israel on October 7, it refused to name Hamas.Considering that Hamas had a chequered past of receiving patronage from Israel, Tel Aviv has no right to expect Delhi to dance to its tunes. Equally, Hamas’ future is far from an open and shut case. The fact that Sinn Fein and Irish opinion has shown empathy towards Hamas, or that South Africa, which has itself been a victim of apartheid, has recalled its ambassador and diplomatic mission to Israel, calling the horrific Gaza killings as “genocide,” go to show that the embers of national liberation struggle are still burning.Although India expressed “solidarity” with the Israeli people over the brutal violence on October 7, it cannot condone the vastly disproportionate Israeli retaliation since then, blithely calling it a matter of Israel’s ‘right to self-defence’. On December 13, India voted in favour of a resolution in the UN General Assembly that demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict.This was the first time India supported such a resolution since the war broke out more than two months ago. Such a stance puts India on the right side of history, as the 193-member UNGA overwhelmingly adopted the resolution at an emergency special session, with 153 nations voting in its favour.A third aspect is that from a geopolitical perspective, Delhi has marked its distance from the US-Israeli campaign branding Iran as the instigator of extremist groups acting against Israel. Interestingly, on December 19, India was one of only thirty states — along with Russia and China — who voted against a UN resolution on “the human rights situation in Iran.”The running thread here is that India has reverted to its traditional stance on the Palestine problem and jettisoned the tilt supportive of Israeli interests. The unprecedented unity among the Arab countries, the close coordination between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the huge groundswell of opinion in the Arab world against Israeli atrocities against the Palestinian populations in Gaza and West Bank — all this has created a new momentum in Middle East politics that has pitchforked the Palestine problem to the centre stage, which is something India cannot afford to ignore. Nor can Delhi be oblivious of the new reality that something has fundamentally changed in the dynamics of the Palestine problem after the events since October 7. The Israeli ploys of dissimulation and evasiveness and deliberate wrecking of dialogue process and negotiations may no longer work. Indeed, Israel’s overwhelming military superiority vis-a-vis its Arab neighbours has lost its relevance. Coupled with the US’ loss of influence and America’s waning global hegemony alongside the sharp polarisation of opinion within Israel itself internally add up to create grave uncertainties regarding the future of the state of Israel as it exists today.

India targeting high-profile journalists with spyware: Amnesty - India's government has recently targeted high-profile journalists with Pegasus spyware, Amnesty International and The Washington Post said in a joint investigation published Thursday. Created by Israeli firm NSO Group and sold to governments around the world, Pegasus software can be used to access a phone's messages and emails, peruse photos, eavesdrop on calls, track locations and even film the owner with the camera. Amnesty said journalists Siddharth Varadarajan of The Wire and Anand Mangnale of The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project had been targeted with the spyware on their iPhones, with the latest identified case occurring in October. "Our latest findings show that increasingly, journalists in India face the threat of unlawful surveillance simply for doing their jobs, alongside other tools of repression including imprisonment under draconian laws, smear campaigns, harassment, and intimidation," said Donncha O Cearbhaill, Head of Amnesty International's Security Lab. India's government did not immediately respond, but it denied similar accusations in 2021 that it used Pegasus spyware to surveil political opponents, activists and journalists. Indian media reported last month that the country's cyber security unit was investigating allegations by opposition politicians of attempted phone tapping after they reported receiving Apple iPhone warnings of "state-sponsored attackers".

Yuan Overtakes Yen For 4th Place In Global Payments -- China's yuan has overtaken the Japanese yen to become the fourth-most used currency by value in global payments for the first time in almost two years, according to a monthly tracker of the Chinese currency released by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). The share of the yuan as a global payment currency climbed to 4.61% in November from 3.6% the previous month, according to data compiled by SWIFT and released on Thursday. According to Caixin, the redback surpassed the Japanese yen, whose share came in at 3.41% in November, down from 3.91% the month before.Thanks to its sharp devaluation throughout 2023, the yuan has been on a steady march upward throughout 2023, having started the year with just a 1.91% share in January. The November reading for the yuan was the highest since SWIFT began compiling the data series in 2010.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar maintained its dominance in global payments with a share of 47.08% in November. It was trailed by the euro, which was used in 22.95% of global payments, and the British pound, which had a share of 7.15%.While China has been ramping up efforts to expand use of the yuan in cross-border transactions as an alternative to the US dollar, it has so far achieved very limited success due to the country's impenetrable capital account firewall which means the yuan can never truly float (and if it does, watch as tens of trillions in domestic savings promptly flood the rest of the world, after a massive devaluation of course). To overcome the yuan's natural limitations, China has been encouraging other countries to settle trade and investment in the Chinese currency (something Russia has been pursuing in recent months), and setting up yuan clearing banks in offshore markets to cater to cross-border yuan settlements.The yuan’s ranking in global payment currencies by value has been hovering around fifth for years, SWIFT data show. It temporarily captured the fourth spot for a two-month spell in December 2021 and January 2022, but dropped back to fifth the following month, where it had remained until last month. In November, the yuan also unexpectedly surpassed the euro as the second-most used currency in the global trade finance market, SWIFT data show. It edged out the euro to occupy the No. 2 position in global trade finance for the first time in September — according to available data going back to 2017 — and then dipped to third place in October.SWIFT’s tracker for the yuan counts data computed from certain message types and exchanged between financial institutions through its system, so it’s not a reflection of the entire financial market, the association noted in its report.

China urges regional alert as US military steps up forward deployment -China's defence ministry on Thursday urged the Asia-Pacific to be on high alert as the United States steps up forward military deployment in the region, after reports of a U.S. plan to revive a Pacific airfield that launched atomic bombings of Japan. The Chinese military is paying close attention to moves by the United States, and will firmly safeguard China's maritime rights, security and sovereignty in the region, Wu Qian, a spokesperson at the defence ministry, told a regular news conference. Earlier in December, a U.S. air force general told Japan's Nikkei newspaper that the U.S. military will make "significant progress" towards reclaiming the Tinian North airfield from overgrown jungle vegetation in the coming months, as part of a plan to disperse aircraft across the Indo-Pacific region as China's missile threat grows. The airfield, abandoned after World War II, lies on Tinian island, part of the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. territory, and about 200 kilometres (124 miles) north of Guam.

Russian Trade Corridors Flourish Under Western Sanctions - As Project Ukraine collapses, the West’s efforts to “isolate” Russia show no signs of slowing down. So far, they have been ineffective, if not counterproductive, but that doesn’t mean they will end. Transport and logistics continues to be a major target of the sanctions, which means much of this geopolitical struggle revolves around transit and trade, and for Moscow that means minimizing any dependence on countries hostile to Moscow. Access to the seas has historically been key for Russia and remains paramount, which is summarized here by Glenn Diesen, a Norwegian political scientist who specializes in Russian foreign policy:Russia’s economic development was obstructed ever since the disintegration of Kievan Rus as it severed Russia from the maritime arteries of international trade. Russia’s “return to Europe” and subsequently becoming a great power was made possible under Peter the Great by gaining access to the Baltic Sea. Containment of Russia has since relied to some extent on denying Russia reliable access to the sea…In Europe, NATO has been instrumental to expand US control over the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Arctic. NATO expansion to Bulgaria, Romania and possibly Ukraine aims to convert the Black Sea into a NATO lake. In the Baltic Sea, NATO membership to Baltic states has extended the reach of the US. Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, argued that the pending NATO expansion to Sweden and Finland was a strategic victory because “if we wish, we can block all entry and exit to Russia through St. Petersburg”. The US is also expanding its reach in the high north by converting Norway into a frontline in the Arctic with increased military activity and soon to establish four US military bases on Norwegian soil.Russia’s goal is to maintain and expand its maritime trade corridors while the West aims to thwart it any way possible. Data from Rosmorrechflot, Russia’s Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport, show that Russia is winning with 2023 seaport cargo turnover increasing by 7.8 percent in the January-October period compared to the previous year. The following is a brief look at each major sea corridor for Russia and western efforts in the same area. Despite Western declarations that the Baltic Sea is a “NATO lake”, cargo turnover at Russia’s Baltic seaports, including St. Petersburg, increased by 2.5 percent.Surging oil exports to China played a major role in the increase. Flows from Russia’s Arctic and Baltic ports to China totaled 10.4 million barrels in the 2023 summer season, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed. That total was up from just 484,000 barrels in 2022 and 2.2 million barrels in 2019 when the first commercial shipments began.This is still only a fraction of the seaborne Russian crude to China shipped mostly south via the Suez Canal.A big reason both Moscow and Beijing are working to make the Northern route viable is to have multiple connection routes in the case of direct war with the West or if other corridors suffer from local conflict, as is currently happening now in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The building out of the Northern route is also part of China’s plans to diversify its supply routes in case of any future conflict with the West.Compared to the Suez route, the Northern route is about a third shorter for Russian Baltic shipments to northern China and about 45 percent shorter for shipments from terminals near the arctic port of Murmansk, but those times can vary due to unpredictable weather and ice.Still, Moscow is planning on climate change making the route more passable, and Russia has built up its fleet of icebreakers, ships and submarines. According to S&P Global, Russia has three nuclear icebreakers working the Northern Sea Route, plus a nuclear-powered ice-breaking container ship on the route, and other icebreakers under repair. In June, Russia said it planned to build more than 50 icebreakers and ice-class vessels, ports and terminals and other assets over the next 13 years at a cost of $22 billion.

Russian factory activity expands at fastest pace in seven years in Dec –PMI -Activity in Russia's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in almost seven years in December, a business survey showed on Friday, though new export orders contracted for the second month running. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 54.6 in December from 53.8 in November, moving further above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. It was the highest reading since January 2017. Output rose at its fastest pace in seven months and new orders also increased sharply again. "Greater client demand was largely focused on the domestic market, however, as new export orders fell for the second month running," S&P Global said in a statement. "Fewer customer requests from clients in key export markets led to the fastest fall in new business from abroad since July." Moscow is spending heavily on manufacturing, pouring cash into the defence sector to ramp up military production following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The sector's growth in the almost two years since then has been largely predicated on domestic demand. Manufacturers are still grappling with logistical upheavals due to Western sanctions and the high cost of imported goods, hampered by the weak rouble and high inflation. The survey showed the rate of inflation was softening, S&P Global said. Despite labour shortages in Russia, with unemployment at a record low 2.9%, firms increased staffing numbers to try to reduce backlogs of work, S&P Global said, though companies remained optimistic about the future. "Confidence stemmed from planned investment in new products and machinery," S&P Global said. "The level of positive sentiment was historically elevated despite dropping to a three-month low."

Ukrainian Attack on Russia Kills At Least 14 - Ukraine conducted a major attack inside Russian territory, leaving at least 14 people dead. The war has escalated over the past week as Ukraine has conducted strikes inside Russia, and Moscow ordered a missile and drone barrage against Kyiv.Russian authorities report the Belgorod region that borders Ukraine came under missile and rocket fire on Saturday. Moscow’s state media service, Tass, says at least 14 are dead and over 100 were injured in the attack. The Russian Defense Ministry says one child is among the dead.The Kremlin reports that several of the Ukrainian projectiles were shot down. The Russian military slammed the attack as “indiscriminate” and claimed several of the rockets were cluster munitions.The Russian Representative to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, calledfor the security council to meet over the attack and summoned the Czech Republic representative to explain why Czech weapons were used in the attack. “We have requested a UNSC meeting on Belgorod today, December 30. We also demanded that the Czech permanent representative be present to explain his country’s supplies of weapons, which are used to kill civilians,” he said. The Ukrainian attack came after Russia conducted an attack on Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities with over 150 drones and missiles. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry says about 100 of the projectiles were intercepted by air defenses. Ukrainian official reports 39 killed across the county.The Russian missile barrage was likely a response to Ukraine attacking the Crimean Peninsula. The Novocherkassk, a Russian landing ship, was damaged earlier in the week by a Ukrainian cruise missile.The Russian strike on Ukraine came just before the UK announced a new weapons package for Ukraine. “The package of around 200 air defense missiles will re-supply UK-developed air defense systems provided to Ukraine in late 2022,” the UK Ministry of Defense explained in a statement. “These air defense missiles (Advanced Short Range Air-to-Air Missiles – ASRAAM) are designed to be launched from aircraft including the UK’s Typhoon and F-35 fighter jets.” The MoD says the interceptors have been redesigned to be fired from the ground.

QE Giveth, QT Taketh Away: German Home Prices Tank as ECB’s Balance Sheet Drops by €1.85 Trillion by Wolf Richter - Germany is a great example of what ultra-low interest rates and massive QE do to home prices: They whip them into frenzy. And what rate hikes and QT do to home prices: they tank them. So now the ECB’s deposit rate is at 4.0%, up from -0.5% in June 2022. And the ECB has shed €1.85 trillion from its balance sheet since the peak in the summer of 2022, having unwound roughly 40% of the assets it piled on during the pandemic, and 21% of its total assets. The ECB’s QE came in two forms: Massive and very attractive loans to banks that banks could use to buy assets with; and purchases of all kinds of bonds, including large amounts of corporate bonds. The pandemic era loans have now been totally unwound; and the bond holdings are being shed at an accelerated pace: In 2008, the ECB’s policies started going berserk, first in reaction to the Global Financial Crisis, then in reaction to the Eurozone Debt Crisis, then in reaction to no crisis, an in 2016, the ECB pushed its deposit rate into the negative and it stayed negative until July 2022. And then in reaction to the pandemic, the ECB blew a fuse entirely. As these policies pushed down longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, home prices in Germany more than doubled in 12 years, while the ECB’s balance sheet multiplied by a factor of nine over the same period, from €1 trillion to nearly €9 trillion. But that was then and this is now. Prices of existing homes in Germany fell by another 1.5% in Q3 from Q2, the fifth quarter in a row of declines, according to the German statistical agency Destatis on Friday. These are used single-family houses, duplexes, and condos. Year-over-year, prices fell by 11.2%, The year-over-year drops in Q1, Q2, and Q3 had been the steepest in the data going back to 2000. From the peak in Q2 2022, prices dropped by 12.0%. Between 2010 and the peak in Q2 2022, the index had soared by 104%. Note how it blew a fuse when the ECB blew a fuse during the pandemic. The index has now unwound nearly all the gains since January 2021: