Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.23 Trillion from Peak, -$129 billion in November, to $7.74 Trillion, Lowest since April 2021 - The Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) continues on track, and the unwinding of the March bank-panic measures took a leap forward as the FDIC paid off the rest of its loans from the Fed. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $129 billion in November, to $7.74 trillion, the lowest since April 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since peak-QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.228 trillion of its total assets. The closeup view: During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s total assets dropped by $688 billion, but inflation was below or at the Fed’s target (1.8% core PCE in August 2019). At the time, the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet. Now inflation is still doing a lot of heavy breathing in services, though energy prices have plunged and durable goods prices have ticked down. Within the Fed’s favored PCE price index, core services inflation is still burning at a rate of 4.6%. Within CPI, core services inflation is still burning at 5.5%. Treasury securities: -$60 billion in November, -$959 billion from peak in June 2022, to $4.81 trillion, the lowest since February 2021. The Fed has shed 29.3% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that it had added since March 2020 as part of its pandemic QE. Treasury notes (2- to 10-year securities) and bonds (20- & 30-year securities) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month or at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value for them. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS. What Treasury bills do for QT. These short-term securities (1 month to 1 year) are included in the $4.81 trillion of Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet. But they play a different role. The Fed lets them roll off (mature without replacement) to fill in the gap when not enough longer-term Treasury securities mature and roll off to get to the $60-billion monthly cap. As long as the Fed has T-bills, the roll-off of Treasury securities will reach the cap of $60 billion every month. But when the Fed runs out of T-bills to fill in any gap, the Treasury roll-off will fall below the $60 billion cap. So we keep an eye on these T-bills because as long as there is still a stash of T-bills, the Treasury roll-off can proceed at a constant pace of $60 billion a month. From March 2020 through the ramp-up of QT, the Fed held $326 billion in T-bills that it constantly replaced as they matured by buying new T-bills at auctions (the flat line in the chart). In September 2022, T-bills first started rolling off as needed to get the Treasury roll offs to $60 billion a month. T-bills are now down to $230 billion. No T-bills rolled off in November. Less than $1 billion rolled off in December (this week). In total, $96 billion in T-bills have rolled off. The Fed’s shrinking weight in the bond market: The US national debt has ballooned to $33.8 trillion. This debt comes in two categories: One: $26.8 trillion of Treasury securities are “held by the public”; they are traded and are held by investors of all kinds, including by the Fed. They’re the Treasury bond market. Two: $7.0 trillion of Treasury securities are held by entities of the US government (“held internally”), such as by US government pension funds and the Social Security Trust Fund, and they’re not part of the bond market. The Fed’s share of Treasury securities that are in the bond market has fallen to 17.9%, down from over 24% at the peak. The Fed’s weight in the bond market, though still massive, has diminished due to two factors: QT reduced the Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet; while the government deficit is ballooning the marketable securities (the data points in the chart are quarterly, except the current data point which reflects today’s data). Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$16 billion in November, -$293 billion from the peak, to $2.45 trillion, the lowest since September 2021. The Fed only holds government-backed MBS, and taxpayers carry the credit risk. MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. The higher mortgage rates have caused home sales to plunge and refis to collapse which slowed the mortgage payoffs, and therefore the pass-through principal payments. The MBS run-off has been between $15 billion and $21 billion a month, far below the $35-billion cap.
Markets See Spring 2024 Interest Rate Cuts But The Fed Isn’t There Yet - The debt markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in spring 2024. In contrast, policymakers believe it’s premature to discuss rate cuts until they see further evidence of cooling inflation. As of October, annual headline Consumer Price Index Inflation is running at 3.2% compared to the Fed’s 2% target. Fed officials are also signaling that a rate increase remains an option. However, both markets and the Fed ultimately agree that short-term interest rates will move lower in 2024.For the near term, current expectations are that rates will hold steady at the Fed’s upcoming December 12-13 meeting. Beyond that, both debt and equity markets currently signal that interest rate hikes are over. The CME’s FedWatch Tool currently gives a 90% chance that rate cuts occur no later than May 2024, with a 60% possibility of a March cut.U.S. equity markets also have rallied strongly from late October lows, likely in part on expectations that interest rates are at peak levels. However, policymakers continue to emphasize that it’s too early to discuss rate cuts. At a Spelman College speech on December 1, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The FOMC is strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent over time, and to keeping policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that objective. It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman struck a similar tone at a November 28 speech, saying, “At our last meeting, I supported the FOMC's decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at the current level as we continue to assess incoming information and its implications for the outlook. But my baseline economic outlook continues to expect that we will need to increase the federal funds rate further to keep policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2 percent target in a timely way. However, monetary policy is not on a preset course, and I will continue to closely watch the incoming data as I assess the implications for the economic outlook and the appropriate path of monetary policy.” However, despite these statements, when Fed officials last updated their Summary of Economic Projections on September 20, the majority of them did forecast the Fed funds rate would move lower by the end of 2024.
Fed is 'disconnected' from reality, must cut rates 5 times next year, portfolio manager says - The Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates at least five times next year to avoid tipping the U.S. economy into a recession, according to portfolio manager Paul Gambles.Gambles, co-founder and managing partner at MBMG Group, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" the Fed was behind the curve on cutting rates, and in order to avoid an extreme and protracted monetary tightening cycle it will have to deliver at least five cuts in 2024 alone."I think Fed policy is now so disconnected from economic factors and from reality that you can't make any assumptions about when the Fed is going to wake up and and start smelling the amount of damage that they're actually causing to the economy," Gambles warned.The current U.S. policy rate stands at 5.25%-5.50%, the highest in 22 years. Traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut as early as March 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that it was too early to declare victory over inflation, watering down market expectations for interest rate cuts next year. "It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease," Powell said in prepared remarks.Recent data from the U.S. has signaled easing price pressures, but Powell emphasized that policymakers plan on "keeping policy restrictive" until they are convinced that inflation is heading solidly back to the central bank's target of 2%.Financial markets, however, perceived his comments as dovish, sending Wall Street's main indexes to new highs and Treasury yields sharply lower on Friday. The perception now being that the U.S. central bank is effectively done raising interest rates.
The Question is Not “When” but “Why” the Fed Would Cut Rates with a Labor Market this Strong and Wage Growth Accelerating --by Wolf Richter • It was the kind of jobs report that you’d expect from an economy that is plugging along just fine, growing at a solid pace while the gyrations of the pandemic have settled down. There was a kink in it though: Average hourly earnings jumped, with growth accelerating for the third month in a row, rising at an annualized rate of 5.0% in November, at the high end of the range of the past 12 months, and we discussed that a minute ago. The question is why would the Fed “pivot” to multiple rate cuts starting in Q1, with the labor market this strong, with wage growth re-accelerating, and with inflation in services – where two-thirds of consumer spending goes – running at 4.6% according to the PCE price index and at 5.5% according to CPI? Sure, energy prices plunged, and durable goods prices dropped off their spike, but the action is in services, and Powell has lamented the stubborn core services inflation at every press conference.So this was not a rate-cut jobs report – and there hasn’t been a rate-cut jobs report this year. This was another jobs report in a long series that changes the question of when rate cuts should begin to why they should begin.Employers added 199,000 workers to their payrolls in November, according to the survey of employers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today.The strikes in the manufacturing sector had caused manufacturing employment to fall by 35,000 in October, but by now, many of these workers went back to work – as we said a month ago they would, and here too. So in November, employment in manufacturing rose by 28,000 workers.The three-month average of jobs created by employers rose to 204,000 and has been in the same range since June. In 2019, the three month-average of net job gains was running between 100,000 and 200,000. Total payrolls at employers rose to a record of 157.1 million. The total number of workers, including self-employed, jumped by 747,000 in November from October, to a record 162.0 million, based on the BLS survey of households, which accounts for all types of workers, even those that do not work for an employer per se (green line in the chart below).To iron out these month-to-month ups and downs and see the trend, we look at the three-month moving average. It rose by 162,000 in November (red line).The number of workers includes these categories that we’ll get into in greater detail:
- Workers with wages and salaries
- Self-employed workers
- Part-time workers
- Multiple jobholders – in this survey of households, each worker counts as one worker, no matter how many jobs they have, since this data counts people not jobs.
- From BofA: Our 4Q GDP tracking estimate remains at 1.0% q/q saar as higher than expected October construction spending was offset by lower than expected vehicle sales in November and a small downward revision in core capital goods orders in the final October print. [Dec 6th estimate]
- From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.4% (qoq ar). Our Q4 domestic final sales estimate remains at +2.1% (qoq ar). [Dec 7th estimate]
- And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on December 7, down from 1.3 percent on December 6 after rounding. [Dec th estimate]
Top lawmakers drop abortion limits from defense bill, setting up fight with the right - A compromise defense policy bill unveiled late Wednesday will not include a Republican-backed proposal to block the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy, nixing a controversial measure that threatened to tank the legislation. The exclusion — coupled with an extension of controversial federal surveillance powers — sets up a test for Speaker Mike Johnson, who will need to sell a deal that is more moderate than the hard-right defense bill the House passed in July largely along party lines. Johnson’s task of uniting Republicans behind the $886 billion National Defense Authorization Act will be further complicated by congressional leaders’ decision to attach a four-month extension of warrantless government surveillance authorities. The Senate moved first and is expected to vote on the bill early next week after clearing an initial procedural hurdle Thursday. The House will follow and is likely to consider the measure under suspension of the rules — an expedited process that requires a two-thirds majority. The tactic could ease Johnson’s push to pass the deal by bypassing tricky procedural votes that hardliners have tanked recently. This new version of the bill is on track to pass both houses with bipartisan support. Yet the abortion policy omission is a blow to conservatives who muscled the provision into the House version of the bill over the summer. Hard-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a member of the conference committee on the defense bill, described her position as “hell no” after GOP provisions on abortion and transgender troops fell away and an extension of the surveillance authorities was included. “This was a total sell-out of conservative principles and a huge win for Democrats,” Greene tweeted. Still, Republicans saw wins with some concessions that rein in Pentagon efforts to promote diversity and inclusion in the ranks. Lawmakers in both parties expect Johnson to help shepherd a bipartisan bill through the House. But pushing through a bill that drops many conservative priorities could earn Johnson even greater ire. He’s already taking heat from his right flank on government funding, Ukraine aid and other issues. The Pentagon instituted a policy this year to reimburse troops for the costs of traveling to seek abortions. Republicans argue it undermines laws that bar taxpayer money for abortions. The Democratic-led Senate sidestepped the abortion issue altogether in the debate on its version of the defense bill. Blocking the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy was a red line for Democrats that would have tanked the bill. House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) predicted the lack of abortion language won’t be a major impediment to the bill’s chances because most Republicans saw it as a long shot. “I told everybody when that stuff was added on the floor, it was never going to survive the Senate,” Rogers said. “And anybody who thought it was [is] not being realistic.”
Schumer sets up Ukraine, Israel aid vote despite floundering border talks - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday teed up the first procedural vote on President Biden’s $106 billion supplemental package to send aid to Ukraine, Israel, Indo-Pacific countries and for humanitarian purposes in Gaza. Schumer set up the planned cloture vote on a shell bill, which is slated to take place later in the week. He said moving forward on the measure is necessary as Ukraine is running out of resources needed to continue its war against the Russian invasion. “I urge every single senator to think where we are at this moment in history. America’s national security is on the line around the world — in Europe, in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific,” Schumer said on the floor. “[The supplemental] could determine the trajectory of democracy for years to come. We are at a moment in history.” However, the bill is unlikely to overcome this initial hurdle. Republicans have said that they will vote against proceeding on the supplemental bill if there is no border component attached. The GOP says a border deal is paramount to winning their support for the bill as it will not get across the finish line in the House without it. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), the top Democratic negotiator, told reporters that talks have broken down as Republicans have refused to back off what he described as “take it or leave it” demands. “That’s what it feels like. That Republicans want us to swallow their most difficult proposals and aren’t interested in sitting down and working this out,” Murphy added. Talks have centered on curtailing asylum and parole claims, but progressives have cried foul in recent weeks over what they viewed as Democrats giving up too many concessions in talks. On the other side of the aisle, conservatives have been vocal that H.R. 2, the GOP’s hard-line border security bill, should be the basis of discussions, which Democrats consider to be a non-starter. Top administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, are set to brief all senators Tuesday on the situation in Ukraine. The briefing will be classified. Schumer announced that the administration also invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to address senators via a secure video to lay out the situation facing Kyiv. There is no hard and fast deadline for lawmakers to pass a supplemental bill, which could hypothetically stretch into next year. But the White House on Monday said it would run out of aid for Ukraine by the end of the year without congressional action.
US Not Considering Leveraging Aid to Israel to Limit Civilian Casualties - Despite the soaring civilian deaths in Gaza, the Biden administration is not considering using any of the leverage it has over Israel to get the Israeli military to change its tactics, Reuters reported on Tuesday.US officials say they’re expressing concern privately and claim Israel is listening, but the current campaign in south Gaza, where there are millions of displaced civilians, is no less brutal than Israeli operations in the north.The US has pointed to Israel allowing more aid trucks to enter Gaza as proof that Israel is listening. But the UN’s top relief official, Martin Griffiths, has said the situation in south Gaza is “apocalyptic” and ending any possibility of meaningful humanitarian operations.Gaza’s Health Ministry has said nearly 16,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 7, 70% being women and children. The mass slaughter of civilians has not caused the Biden administration to rethink support for the war, and the Reuters report said the US is “stopping well short” of measures that would force Israel to listen to concerns about civilian casualties, such as restricting military aid.Instead, US officials have maintained US military aid to Israel is unconditional. The support has involved near-daily weapons shipments, including thousands of massive bombs, and the deployment of more American firepower to the region to “deter” regional actors from entering the war.One US official claimed to Reuters that reducing military support for the onslaught would carry risks. “You start lessening aid to Israel, you start encouraging other parties to come into the conflict, you weaken the deterrence effect, and you encourage Israel’s other enemies,” the official said.
Sanders opposed to sending $10B to ‘extremist Netanyahu government’ in Israel -- Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), one of the Senate’s most prominent progressives, on Monday stated his opposition to sending $10.1 billion to the “Netanyahu government to continue its current offensive military approach,” lambasting the siege and assault of Gaza as “immoral.” “I do not think we should be appropriating $10.1 billion for the right-wing, extremist Netanyahu government to continue its current military approach. What the Netanyahu government is doing is immoral, it is in violation of international law, and the United States should not be complicit in those actions,” Sanders argued on the Senate floor. Sanders is taking issue with the more than $10 billion the Biden administration has requested for the Defense Department to resupply Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile defense systems, as well as to replenish military stocks being drawn down by the war. “I believe it is appropriate to support defensive systems that will protect Israeli civilians against incoming missile and rockets attacks, but I believe that it would be absolutely irresponsible to provide an additional $10.1 billion in unconditional military aid that will allow the Netanyahu government to continue its current offensive military approach,” he said. A group of Senate Democrats are working on a proposal to attach conditions to U.S. military aid to Israel, an idea that has divided the Senate Democratic caucus. Sanders cited Palestinian Health Ministry statistics of the mounting civilian death toll in Gaza: 16,000 Palestinians killed in the span of two months, two-thirds of whom are women and children, and tens of thousand of people injured. He said that 1.8 million people have been displaced from their homes and are struggling every day to get food, water, medical supplies and fuel. He also noted that 250 Palestinians have died in the West Bank and thousands have been driven off their land there. Sanders walked right up to the line of saying he would vote against the emergency funding package as currently drafted, criticizing it for lacking domestic investments at a time when millions of Americans are struggling to afford health care, child care and other necessities. “There are pieces of this bill I strongly support, but in its present form I do not think it serves the interests of the American people,” he said.
'I don't care how we pay for it': GOP senator backs no-strings Israel aid bill — but only after border funding - A standalone military aid package for Israel, with no cuts to offset it, is on the table, a Republican senator said Monday. But first, Congress and the White House must hash out a deal to beef up U.S. border security. "I don't care how we pay for it," Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., said of the Israel aid in an appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "I'd even consider standalone legislation just support Israel without a pay-for, I think it's that big of a priority," said Marshall, a member of the Senate Budget and Homeland Security Committees. But he said funding Israel's war against Hamas is just one piece of a complicated riddle, in which Senate Republicans want a bipartisan border security package that grants the president power to shut the border, in exchange for seriously considering a White House request for emergency foreign aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. "The rest of the riddle is not going to be solved unless we have meaningful border security," Marshall said. "If that riddle is not solved, then the Republicans are going to vote down any type of cloture for the other three pieces of this riddle, for Ukraine, for Taiwan, as well as for funding for Israel." The Senate hopes to finalize this deal by the end of the year, a lead Republican negotiator, Sen. James Lankford, Okla., said over the weekend. But this timeline could potentially be disastrous for Ukraine, the White House warned Monday. Unless Congress acts, the U.S. will run out of money to supply Ukraine more weapons and equipment by the end of the year, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young wrote in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. Shutting the flow of resources to Ukraine "will kneecap" its military efforts, threatening Kyiv's battlefield gains and increasing the likelihood of Russian military success, Young wrote. "If Ukraine's economy collapses, they will not be able to keep fighting, full stop," Young wrote. "We are out of money — and nearly out of time." Johnson responded later Monday that the White House is failing to address House Republicans' concerns about further funding Ukraine while "continually ignoring the catastrophe at our own border." "House Republicans have resolved that any national security supplemental package must begin with our own border. We believe both issues can be agreed upon if Senate Democrats and the White House will negotiate reasonably," Johnson said on X.
Senate Republicans Block $111 Billion Military Aid Bill Over Border Dispute - Senate Republicans blocked a motion to advance a massive $111 billion spending package that includes military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan over a partisan dispute on border issues.The effort failed in a vote of 49-51, with every Republican voting against the measure. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) also voted “no” due to his opposition to providing Israel with more unconditional military aid as it’s killing civilians on a massive scale in Gaza. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) switched his vote to “no” when he realized the bill wouldn’t receive the 60 votes it needed so he could bring the bill to the floor again in the future.President Biden initially requested $106 billion for the spending package, but Senate Democrats increased the number to $111 billion. The legislation includes a whopping $67 billion to spend on Ukraine to fuel the war and prop up the Ukrainian government for another entire year despite clear signs that Ukrainian forces cannot break through Russia’s defenses.The $111 billion bill also includes billions to beef up security at the border, but Republicans are looking for changes to asylum laws to make it more difficult for migrants to enter the country. Schumer called the vote despite the lack of a deal, and the bill was expected to fail.Earlier in the day, President Biden pleaded with Congress to pass more funding for the Ukraine war, claiming if US aid dried up, Russia would invade NATO territory in Europe. “Then we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today — American troops fighting Russian troops,” Biden said.The president also took shots at Republicans for their border stance. “Petty, partisan, angry politics can’t get in the way of our responsibility as a leading nation in the world. And literally, the entire world is watching,” he said.
Biden Tells Israel To Wrap Up War By January As An Estimated 80% Of Gazans Displaced - With a ground war now raging in the Gaza Strip's second largest city of Khan Younis in the south, civilians have nowhere left to go. The Strip's southern half was initially declared a 'safe zone' by Israel's military, but it now says top Hamas commanders are hiding out there.The United Nations has issued a fresh statement estimating that more than 80% of Gaza's population has been displaced. The UN issued a figure of 1.87 million people who have been driven from their homes.Further the AP cited that UN as saying "fighting is now preventing distribution of food, water and medicine outside a tiny sliver of southern Gaza" and that the latest military evacuation orders are "squeezing people into ever-smaller areas of the south."And the ground war and aerial bombardment is expected to continue with great intensity through at least January. "We are in a high-intensity operation in the coming weeks, then probably moving to a low-intensity mode," an Israeli official told CNN.The Biden administration last week reportedly warned Israel that the clock is ticking on its military operation, and that it's unlikely to have even "months" to fight given domestic and international pressure is ratcheting in response to the soaring death toll (which according to Palestinian sources has surpassed 16,000 killed in Gaza).According to details of the message delivered to Israeli leaders:Officials from the Biden administration have marked the start of 2024 as the target date for ending Israel’s massive military campaign against terror group Hamas.Officials have told their Israeli counterparts that this is not a deadline but a target. According to the administration, Israel is close to exhausting the extensive ground invasion it launched in late October in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 massacre and should switch to more focused efforts to bring down Hamas."The gap between us and the Americans is around three weeks to a month — nothing that cannot be resolved," an Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
White House Tells Congress It's Running Out of Money to Fund Ukraine War - The White House has sent a letter to congressional leaders warning that it’s running out of money to fund the proxy war in Ukraine and pleading for Congress to authorize more spending.“I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks,” wrote Shalanda D. Young, the head of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget. “There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money — and nearly out of time.”According to Young, Congress has authorized $111 billion to spend on the war since the Russian invasion, but the vast majority of the funding has been used up.“As of mid-November, DOD has used 97 percent of the $62.3 billion it received, and State has used 100 percent of the $4.7 billion in military assistance it received. Approximately $27.2 billion, or 24 percent, has been used for economic assistance and civilian security assistance (such as demining) to Ukraine, which is just as essential to Ukraine’s survival as military assistance. State and USAID have used 100 percent of this amount,” she said.Based on recent comments from Pentagon officials, the Biden administration still has a few billion to ship weapons to Ukraine directly from US military stockpiles, part of $6 billion that became available due to a so-called “accounting error” that overvalued earlier arms shipments. But Young said the US has had to limit the weapons packages it’s been sending Ukraine.“Already, our packages of security assistance have become smaller and the deliveries of aid have become more limited. If our assistance stops, it will cause significant issues for Ukraine. While our allies around the world have stepped up to do more, US support is critical and cannot be replicated by others,” she said.The administration has been arguing that funding the war in Ukraine is beneficial to the US “Defense Industrial Base,” which Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) pointed out is another term for the Military Industrial Complex.“The President’s most recent national security supplemental request will build on our successful efforts to date and will direct over $50 billion into our nation’s DIB, which builds on the funding that has already been invested in manufacturing lines across 35 states,” Young wrote in the letter.
US Announces $175 Million in Weapons for Ukraine as Biden Pleads for More Funding - The Biden administration on Wednesday announced a new $175 million weapons package for Ukraine as President Biden pleaded with Congress to authorize more spending on the proxy war.“This cannot wait,” Biden said in a televised statement. “Congress needs to pass supplemental funding for Ukraine before they break for the holiday recess. Simple as that. Frankly, I think it’s stunning that we’ve gotten to this point in the first place. Republicans in Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he can hope for and abandon our global leadership.” The president claimed that if the US doesn’t support Ukraine, Russia could attack a NATO ally. “Then we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today — American troops fighting Russian troops,” he said. Later in the day, the Senate voted on a massive $111 billion bill that included Ukraine funding, but the measure failed as Republicans are looking for more concessions on border issues. “Republicans think they can get everything they want without any bipartisan compromise,” Biden said.Earlier this week, the White House told Congress it would run out of money to fund the proxy war if Congress didn’t authorize more spending. The new $175 million weapons package used Presidential Drawdown Authority funds that became available thanks to a Pentagon “accounting error” that overvalued previous weapons shipments to Ukraine. Without the so-called error, the White House says it would not be able to arm Ukraine. The new weapons package includes:
- AIM-9M and AIM-7 missiles for air defense
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
- High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
- Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
- More than 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition
- Vehicles to tow and haul equipment
- Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing
- Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure
- Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment
Russia warns US that Ukraine will be its ‘second Vietnam’ – The Kremlin’s spy chief Sergei Naryshkin warned the U.S. that Ukraine will turn into its “second Vietnam,” amid disagreement in Congress over funding for Kyiv.“Ukraine will turn into a ‘black hole’ absorbing more and more resources and people,” Russian foreign intelligence chief Naryshkin said Thursday in a written statement published by his agency’s house journal, the Intelligence Operative.“Ultimately, the U.S. risks creating a ‘second Vietnam’ for itself, and every new American administration will have to deal with it,” he added.The warning comes after U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday urged Congress to further support Ukraine with funding. “We can’t let Putin win,” Biden said.Biden is trying to push through a $61.4 billion emergency funding request for Kyiv, but opposition against further aid to Ukraine has grown among Republicans in the House of Representatives. The U.S. was engaged in the Vietnam War — fought between South Vietnam and the U.S. on one side and communist North Vietnam backed by the Soviet Union and China on the other — for nearly two decades. The conflict claimed more than a million lives, including tens of thousands from the U.S., and ended with a comprehensive victory for the North Vietnamese forces.
Senate Republicans Block Biden Ukraine Aid Despite Warning Over 'Direct Conflict With Russia' - On Wednesday President Joe Biden suggested that if Congress doesn't send Ukraine more money, now, it may 'embolden' Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade a NATO ally, which would precipitate "American troops fighting Russian troops."The threat was not persuasive.In response, Senate Republicans channeled Elon Musk (G...F...Y...), blocking Biden's $111 emergency supplemental package that would also include aid for Israel, humanitarian aid for Gaza, and a smattering of border funding. The Senate voted 49-51, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold required to allow the proposal to come up for consideration. Notably, Bernie Sanders (I-VT) voted against the measure, while Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) flipped his vote to 'no' to preserve the option of revisiting the bill at a later date.President Joe Biden has raised the possibility of "American troops fighting Russian troops" in a speech urging Congress to put aside "petty, partisan, angry politics" which is holding up his multibillion-dollar aid package for Ukraine. He said that he's willing to make "significant compromises" with Republicans but that it's they who've been unwilling to back down from their "extreme" demands. "This cannot wait," Biden stressed in the televised remarks from the White House. “Congress needs to pass supplemental funding for Ukraine before they break for the holiday recess. Simple as that. Frankly, I think it’s stunning that we’ve gotten to this point in the first place. Republicans in Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he can hope for and abandon our global leadership."
US Looks to Help Ukraine Increase Its Own Weapons Production - Ukrainian officials traveled to Washington this week to attend a conference on building up Ukraine’s own military industrial complex to reduce its reliance on the West for military equipment.Opening the conference on Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the US and its allies would work to strengthen “Ukraine’s defense industrial base, both to maintain Ukraine’s current war effort and to bolster Ukraine’s national strength and deterrence long into the future.”National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told Reuters that Ukraine “becoming more self-sufficient in weapons production obviously alleviates the long-term need for continued supply of weapons from the United States and other Western countries.”The US and Ukraine are also looking to jointly produce arms. A Ukrainian minister who attended the conference said Kyiv had an agreement with two American companies to jointly manufacture 155mm artillery shells, which are in short supply as the US shipped millions to support the war against Russia.The minister, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said the production of 155mm shells wouldn’t start for at least two years since Ukraine has never manufactured them before. He would not specify which American companies would be involved in the endeavor.Ukraine has successfully produced drones domestically that it has used in its war with Russia, including sea drones it used to attack the Crimean Bridge. According to The Washington Post, the sea drones, known as Sea Babies, were developed as part of a top-secret operation involving the CIA and other Western intelligence services.Other Western arms makers have agreed to produce weapons inside Ukraine despite the risk of their factories becoming targets of the Russian military. Earlier this year, the German arms maker Rheinmetall announced it would be opening a tank production facility in Ukraine.
Senate Votes Down Resolution to Withdraw Troops from Syria - The Senate on Thursday voted down a resolution that would have directed President Biden to withdraw all US troops from Syria, where US forces have come under frequent attack in response to President Biden’s support for Israel’s Gaza onslaught.The bill failed in a vote of 13-84 and received support from seven Democrats, five Republicans, and one Independent, Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT). The resolution was introduced by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who argued the US occupation of eastern Syria risks a major regional war.“Keeping 900 US troops in Syria does nothing to advance American security. Rather, our intervention puts those servicemembers at grave risk by providing an enticing target for Iranian-backed militias,” Paul said.“Our continued presence risks the United States getting dragged into yet another regional war in the Middle East without debate or a vote by the people’s representatives in Congress. Congress must cease abdicating its constitutional war powers to the executive branch,” he added.Paul’s bill would have given the president 30 days to withdraw from Syria unless he was able to get authorization from Congress. The resolution received support from Robert Ford, who was the US ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014 when the US first threw its weight behind the regime change effort against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.“We owe our soldiers serving there in harm’s way a serious debate about whether their mission is, in fact, achievable. Absent a debate and authorization of such a mission, our troops should be removed. Consideration of S.J. Res. 51 is an important opportunity for the Senate to take a step towards that necessary outcome,” Ford said.The US has launched several rounds of airstrikes against Shia militias in Syria and Iraq in response to the rocket and drone attacks that have targeted US bases since October 17. The US bombings, which have killed dozens of militia members, have not deterred further attacks, and the region has turned into a powder keg.
Congress Reviews Plan to Facilitate Ethnic Cleansing of Palestinians From Gaza -Israel Hayom reported last week that some members of Congress have reviewed a plan to condition US aid to Arab countries on their willingness to accept refugees from Gaza, which would facilitate the Israeli goal of cleansing the territory of Palestinians.The proposal was shown to key figures in the House and Senate, but the report did not say who submitted the plan. The proposal calls for conditioning aid to Egypt, Turkey, Yemen, and Iraq and even details how many Palestinians each country should take.The plan proposes that one million Palestinians go to Egypt, half a million to Turkey, 250,000 to Iraq, and another 250,000 to Yemen. In total, the plan outlines the expulsion of two million Palestinians from Gaza, nearly all of the 2.3 million Palestinians that live there.In October, a document drafted by Israel’s Intelligence Ministry was leaked to the media and outlined several proposals for a post-war Gaza. The document said the best option for Israel would be to expel all the Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and create a “sterile” buffer zone in Egyptian territory.The biggest impediment to the Israeli desire to push all of the Palestinians into Egypt is the strong opposition from Cairo, which repeatedly stated it would not allow a large influx of refugees into its territory. Egypt’s position has led Israeli officials to look to other countries to accept the Palestinians it wishes to expel.In a recent op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, two Israeli members of the Knesset called for Western countries to accept Palestinian refugees. Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel penned a similar op-ed for The Jerusalem Post that proposed the “voluntary resettlement” of Palestinians in Gaza to other countries around the world.
Pentagon Says US Warship and Commercial Vessels Came Under Attack in Red Sea - The Pentagon said Sunday that a US Navy destroyer and several commercial vessels came under attack in the Red Sea, The Associated Press reported.“We’re aware of reports regarding attacks on the USS Carney and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and will provide information as it becomes available,” a Pentagon official told AP.Later on Sunday, US Central Command said the USS Carney responded to attacks on three commercial vessels, the Unity Explorer, the Number Nine, and the Sophie II. CENTCOM said the Carney shot down a total of three drones, including two that were heading in its direction.CENTCOM blamed the attacks on Yemen’s Houthis, who announced that they attacked the Unity Explorer and Number Nine but did not mention firing on the USS Carney. CENTCOM also claimed the attacks were “fully enabled by Iran,” although there’s no evidence of Iranian involvement.“The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners,” CENTCOM said.The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have been targeting Israeli-linked ships and firing missiles and drones at Israel in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza, which resumed in full force on Friday. The Houthis also recently downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone that was flying near Yemen.
Saudis Ask U.S. for Restraint As Houthis Direct Missiles At Israel --As Yemen’s Houthis continue to target vessels in the Red Sea, and claimed on Wednesday to have launched missiles directly at Israel, Saudi Arabia is calling on the U.S. to show restraint as U.S. naval forces respond to Houthi attacks. On Wednesday, the Houthis launched “several” ballistic missiles at Israeli military posts in the city of Eilat, Reuters reports, citing a Houthi spokesperson. That statement followed the U.S. Navy’s shooting down of a Houthi drone earlier in the day. Analysts seem to be of the opinion that the Saudis are calling for restraint in order to avoid further escalation as this vital oil shipping route comes under attack. The calls for restraint follow an incident on Sunday in which three commercial ships were attacked by Houthis in international waters. The Houthis claimed the vessels had connections to Israel, which the Israelis have denied. The U.S. Navy shot down three Houthi drones when the vessels came under attack. Vaguely, the Pentagon has simply said if it decides to take more direct action against the Houthis, it will be “at a time and place” of its own choosing, apparently referring to the Saudi call for restraint. The Houthis pose a significant threat to commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a sea route choke point between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea. Most exports of petroleum and natural gas from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal or the SUMED Pipeline pass through both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz. With Israel’s war on Gaza raging, the Saudis are concerned with maintaining several balances, including the fragile semi-peace in Yemen that has resulted from its restoration of diplomatic ties with long-time arch-rival Iran, who has backed the Houthis, which have a sizable weapons arsenal. That arsenal was used in 2019 to attack Saudi Aramco oil facilities to devastating (if short-lived) impact on oil markets. Reuters has cited “senior sources in the Iran-aligned camp” as saying that the Houthis were using Red Sea attacks to pressure the U.S. to push Israel to cease its offensive on Gaza.
US Tells Israel Not to Strike the Houthis in Yemen - The Biden administration has asked Israel not to respond to recent attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have fired missiles and drones at Israel in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and have targeted Israeli-linked commercial ships in the Red Sea. US warships have responded to the Houthi attacks and have downed several Houthi missiles and drones in recent weeks.According to the Journal, the US is concerned an Israeli response could spark a major regional war. US officials told Israel that the US would handle any potential response, although POLITICO reported that the administration is not planning on directly targeting the Houthis, at least for now.The POLITICO report said the Pentagon has drawn up plans to strike the Houthis, but they have not been presented or recommended to President Biden. The report said there is a “high-level consensus within the administration that it does not make sense for the US military to respond directly to the Houthis.”Saudi Arabia has also urged the US not to strike the Houthis over concerns that such an attack could jeopardize the Saudi-Houthi peace process. A ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022, but a lasting peace deal has not yet been signed.The US announced sanctions targeting the Houthis on Thursday that target 13 people and firms allegedly involved in the sale and shipment of Iranian commodities. The Treasury Department claims the network has transferred tens of millions of dollars worth of foreign currency to the Houthis.
US Considers Forming Red Sea Task Force Amid Houthis Attacks - US officials are considering forming a Red Sea task force with other nations after a series of attacks by Yemen’s Houthis against commercial shipping that’s come in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.“We are in talks with other countries about a maritime task force of sorts involving the ships from partner nations alongside the United States in ensuring safe passage of ships in the Red Sea,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Monday.Sullivan’s comments came a day after the Pentagon said a US Navy destroyer, the USS Carney, responded to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Red Sea that were launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The Pentagon said the USS Carney shot down three drones heading in its direction, but Sullivan said the US “cannot assess” if the US warship was purposely targeted. The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, took credit for attacks on two of the commercial vessels, saying they were tied to Israel, but did not say they targeted the USS Carney. The Houthis have also recently fired missiles and drones at Israel, and some have been intercepted by US warships in the Red Sea.The US has backed a Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis in a brutal war in Yemen since 2015, but it’s rare the US and the Houthis exchange direct fire. Back in 2016, the US bombed Houthi radar sites in response to attacks on a US warship in the region. At the time, the Houthis denied targeting the US vessel.
Poll: Majority of American Voters Want US to Call for 'Permanent' Gaza Ceasefire - Polling continues to show that the majority of Americans favor a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, a position the Biden administration has rejected.The latest poll from Data for Progress found that 61% of American voters support the idea of the US calling for a “permanent” ceasefire in Gaza and a general de-escalation of violence, including 76% of Democrats, 49% of Republicans, and 57% of independent or third-party voters.When presented with arguments for and against the idea of a ceasefire, 52% of respondents still supported a permanent truce, while 34% opposed the idea, and 14% said they didn’t know what position to take.The poll was conducted from November 22 to 25 and surveyed 1,201 likely American voters. An earlier poll conducted by Data for Progress in October found stronger support for the US calling for a ceasefire, with 66% of respondents in favor, but it did not use the term “permanent” when posing the question.A poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos last month found that 68% of Americans agreed with the statement “Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate,” including three-quarters of Democrats and half of Republicans.”The Reuters/Ipsos also found little support for the US arming Israel. Just 31% of respondents said they supported sending Israel weapons, while 43% opposed the idea.
Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin Slams American Non-Interventionists - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has hit out at Americans who prefer a less interventionist foreign policy, smearing them as isolationists who want to see the US “retreat from responsibility.” Austin, a former Raytheon board member, made the comments in a speech at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California on Saturday.“You know, in every generation, some Americans prefer isolation to engagement—and they try to pull up the drawbridge. They try to kick loose the cornerstone of American leadership,” Austin said.The Pentagon chief accused less interventionist Americans of trying to “undermine the security architecture that has produced decades of prosperity without great-power war.” However, most opponents of the US involvement in Ukraine are against the policy because it risks a direct clash with Russia.Austin has overseen the policy of pouring weapons into Ukraine, which he said shortly after the Russian invasion was designed to “weaken” Russia. The US and its close NATO allies discouraged peace talks early in the war, and mounting evidence suggests the idea was to prolong the conflict.In his rhetoric, Austin appeared to be targeting Republicans in Congress who have opposed additional funding for Ukraine, although the vast majority of GOP members against the proxy war with Russia favor funding Israel’s onslaught in Gaza and the military buildup in the Asia Pacific that risks war with China.“And you’ll hear some people try to brand an American retreat from responsibility as bold new leadership. So when you hear that, make no mistake: It is not bold. It is not new. And it is not leadership,” Austin said.Austin went on to urge Congress to pass a full-year appropriations bill and to approve President Biden’s behemoth $106 billion spending request that includes military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
Senior US official visits India, discusses alleged plot to kill Sikh separatist (Reuters) - White House deputy national security adviser Jon Finer led a U.S. delegation to New Delhi on Monday where he noted the formation of an investigative panel by India to probe an unsuccessful plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on U.S. soil. "Mr. Finer acknowledged India's establishment of a Committee of Enquiry to investigate lethal plotting in the United States and the importance of holding accountable anyone found responsible," the White House said in a statement on Monday. Last week, the U.S. Justice Department alleged that an Indian government official directed an unsuccessful plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on U.S. soil, while it announced charges against a man accused of orchestrating the attempted murder. U.S. officials have named the target of the attempted murder as Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist and dual citizen of the United States and Canada. In response, India expressed concern about one of its government officials being linked to the plot, from which it dissociated itself, as being against government policy. India said last week it would formally investigate the concerns aired by the U.S., and take "necessary follow-up action" on the findings of a panel set up on Nov. 18. News of the incident came two months after Canada said there were "credible" allegations linking Indian agents to the June murder of another Sikh separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in a Vancouver suburb, a contention India has rejected. U.S. President Joe Biden, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, CIA director Bill Burns and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have discussed this issue with their Indian counterparts in recent weeks. The issue is highly delicate for both India and the Biden administration as they try to build closer ties in the face of an ascendant China perceived as a threat for both democracies.
Yellen to visit Mexico for talks on boosting trade, fighting fentanyl trafficking --Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is heading to Mexico on Tuesday, with a double duty to strengthen cooperation against drug trafficking and to expand the bilateral trade relationship. Yellen is scheduled to meet with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and her counterpart, Secretary of Finance and Public Credit Rogelio Ramírez de la O, on Thursday, following meetings with law enforcement, private enterprise and officials with the country’s central bank. Yellen’s task of tamping down on one kind of trade while fostering another is a reflection of the complicated U.S.-Mexico relationship, which is now the largest country-to-country trade relationship in the world. On the law enforcement front, Treasury announced Monday a new “Counter-Fentanyl Strike Force,” tasked with attacking drug cartels through their financial activities. “Through this strike force we will conduct joint analyses of the financial flows of fentanyl trafficking networks, we’ll strengthen operational coordination of both civil and criminal investigations and we’ll partner with local and federal law enforcement to share information,” said an administration official. Though administration officials lauded cooperation with Mexico on money laundering, the country remains on the State Department’s list of jurisdictions of primary concern for the practice. Countries are placed on that list for their financial systems’ exposure risk to engaging in transactions with proceeds of criminal activities, regardless of a country’s efforts to combat money laundering. Treasury officials said the new strike force will attempt to disrupt fentanyl production at every level of its supply chain. “This supply chain is largely disguised as legitimate commercial trade. So one of the key values is exposing and disrupting these networks to cut off access to financial and commercial channels that these cartels are trying to operate in undetected,” said an official. Yellen’s parallel task in Mexico will be to strengthen the North American supply chain through “friendshoring,” or pursuing complementary industrial policies throughout the continent. “We believe that it’s in America’s and Mexico’s interest that Mexico implements economic policies that increase sustainable growth, generating more good paying jobs and prosperity for all Mexicans as part of strengthening our bilateral economic relationship,” said an administration official.
Republicans want a China travel ban -Republicans in the House and Senate want the Biden administration to restrict travel to China amid a rise in respiratory infections among children. © AP Rep. Carlos Giménez (Fla.) on Monday became the latest Republican to call for the administration to ban travel between China and the U.S., even as public health experts and officials say there is nothing to worry about. “Communist China cannot be trusted. Until more is known about this mysterious illness, we must immediately ban all travel between Communist China and the United States to guard our public health and protect our country,” Giménez said during a Fox News interview. The remarks by Giménez follow a letter sent Friday by a group of five Senate Republicans led by Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.). But health officials have said there is no cause for alarm, and China is likely experiencing the same surge of seasonal respiratory diseases that the U.S. experienced in 2022. Because of the country’s COVID lockdowns, the usual cohort of respiratory viruses weren’t circulating, and children weren’t able to build up immunity defenses. Once those pathogens returned, outbreaks happened. Last year, the U.S. saw scores of young children infected by respiratory syncytial virus much earlier than in past years, overwhelming children’s hospitals and emergency rooms across the country. One of the primary reasons was an “immune deficiency” caused by so many people staying home during peak pandemic. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Mandy Cohen told lawmakers last week that statements from China regarding the cause of the illnesses have been corroborated by both a CDC office and European Union partners.
US Commerce Secretary Calls China the ‘Biggest Threat We’ve Ever Had’ --Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called for tighter export controls on advanced technologies going to China and labeled Beijing “the biggest threat we’ve ever had.”Raimondo made the comments at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California. “On matters of national security, we got to be eyes wide open about the threat. This is the biggest threat we’ve ever had,” she said.Raimondo said there were areas where the US and China could cooperate and that Washington needed to manage its relationship with Beijing but added, “Make no mistake about it, China’s not our friend.” Since taking her post as commerce secretary, Raimondo has overseen a ramping up of significant economic sanctions on China, including recent measures to limit Beijing’s access to advanced semiconductors. The US justifies the restrictions by claiming it’s trying to prevent China’s military from using the technology, but the chips being banned have many different uses.Explaining her actions, Raimondo said, “I know there are CEOs of chip companies in this audience who were a little cranky with me when I did that, because you’re losing revenue. Such is life, protecting our national security matters more than short-term revenue.”She continued, “Newsflash: democracy is good for your businesses. Rule of law here and around the world is good for your businesses.” Raimondo said the US could not let China catch up to it technologically. “We’re a couple of years ahead of China. No way are we gonna let them catch up. We cannot let them catch up. So we’re gonna deny them our most cutting-edge technology,” she said.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin hit back at Raimondo, saying the US should “stop seeing China as a hypothetical enemy and saying one thing but doing another.” Wang also said the US should “stick to the right perception and work with China to deliver on the common understandings reached in the San Francisco meeting,” referring to recent talks between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Treasury issues rules to exclude China from EV supply chain - The Biden administration released long-awaited rules Friday to exclude China from the U.S. electric vehicle and battery supply chain, with a set of proposed tests to determine which EVs qualify for a big tax rebate and which don’t. The announcement didn’t clarify whether the rule will increase or decrease the number of cars and batteries that qualify for a consumer EV tax credit. And it left some important questions unanswered, including whether companies such as Ford can use technology that they’ve licensed from Chinese companies. Fifteen pure electric vehicles, by seven automakers, currently qualify for the tax credit. Under the proposal, automakers would vouch that their supplies came from companies that aren’t headquartered in China and aren’t controlled by Chinese companies or investors. Only deals that gave American manufacturers “effective control” over how products are made and sold would get federal funding, according to a senior administration official in a media briefing. Albert Gore, the executive director of the Zero Emission Transportation Association, a trade group for EV-related companies, said that based on the limited information available, the rule is “an enforcement regime that seems to be workable.” The rule is targeted at so-called foreign entities of concern, a category created in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act alongside generous funding for the EV supply chain. The definition includes several countries, but China is the significant one, given the country’s dominance in the battery industry. Unless they follow the government’s measures, new EV supply-chain companies could lose access to $6 billion in federal grants. Automakers also won’t be able to offer customers all or part of a $7,500 tax rebate on EV purchases.
Manchin blasts exemptions in Biden administration rule on foreign EV parts | Senate Energy Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) blasted the Biden administration’s new guidance on “foreign entities of concern” (FEOCs) ineligible for the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) electric vehicle (EV) tax credits, calling them contradictory to the text of the landmark climate law. Specifically, Manchin accused the administration of seeking “workarounds” to the IRA’s restrictions on Chinese battery components. The guidance released Friday lays out rules for what makes a company an FEOC, including disqualifying connections to nations including North Korea, China, Iran and Russia. Manchin specifically took issue with provisions that make exceptions for certain trace critical minerals, which the Treasury Department said comprise less than 2 percent of critical minerals used in batteries. “The proposed Treasury rules on Foreign Entities of Concern are another example of the Biden administration clearly breaking the law to try to implement a bill that it could not pass,” Manchin said in a statement. “The Inflation Reduction Act clearly states that consumer vehicles are ineligible for tax credits if ‘any of the applicable critical minerals contained in the battery’ come from China or other foreign adversaries after 2024. But this administration is, yet again, trying to find workarounds and delays that leave the door wide open for China to benefit off the backs of American taxpayers.” Manchin was a key driver in the development of the IRA in 2022 after previously pulling his support from the more ambitious Build Back Better Act. Since then, he has become sharply critical of its implementation, particularly pertaining to electric cars, and accused the Biden administration of prioritizing renewables while neglecting its energy security provisions. In August, he marked the law’s anniversary by vowing to “push back on those who seek to undermine this significant legislation for their respective political agenda, and that begins with my unrelenting fight against the Biden Administration’s efforts to implement the IRA as a radical climate agenda instead of implementing the IRA that was passed into law.”
Senior military promotions resume after Tuberville’s hold is lifted — The US Army chief of staff promoted eight Army general officers on Thursday, marking nearly the end of the monthslong delay of general officer promotions and confirmations due to a hold by Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville. The ceremony on Thursday was held during an annual professional forum for Army general officers in McLean, Virginia. Addressing the crowded hotel ballroom full of seated general officers and their command sergeants major, Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth said the day was “long overdue.” “I think it’s fair to say that the last several months have been quite hard and very frustrating for all of you and your families, and all of us who have seen what’s been happening really for almost a year now,” Wormuth told the group. “But you all, as always, have been incredibly professional and I want to thank you for your professionalism and how you conducted yourselves through this very difficult time.” Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George also recognized and thanked those who have “put their lives on hold” and done “a whole bunch of unnatural things over the last nine months.” “We talk about duty and selfless services – we just want to tell you how much we appreciate that,” he said. The promotion comes just days after Tuberville dropped his blanket hold on military general and flag officers, done in protest of the Pentagon’s new reproductive health policies, which included a travel allowance for service members who had to travel across state lines to receive an abortion due to their home state’s laws. Now, 12 four-star generals’ nominations remain pending in the Senate. The eight officers who were promoted Thursday – wearing civilian business attire, as is typical for the forum, as opposed to their uniforms – included now- Lt. Gen. Heidi Hoyle; Maj. Gen. Ron Ragin; Maj. Gen. Curt Taylor; Maj. Gen. Pat Work; Maj. Gen. William Green; Maj. Gen. Mary Izaguirre; Brig. Gen. Scott Woodward; and Maj. Gen. Denise Brown.
Tuberville lifted his military blockade. But those officers are still stuck. -While Sen. Tommy Tuberville partially lifted his months-long blockade on more than 400 senior military promotions this week, many of those officers still can’t move on to their next posting because of his remaining holds on a handful of the highest-level positions. That’s because a dozen officers nominated for the highest level positions — four-star general or admiral — are still subject to the Alabama Republican’s block as he continues to protest the Pentagon’s policy of reimbursing troops who travel to seek abortions. Those include the nominees to lead multiple theater commands and take senior positions on the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Because they’re still stuck, that creates a ripple effect down the chain of command, and it won’t end until the Senate can slog through individual votes on the remaining nominees. The Defense Department is working to ensure that as many of the 421 officers who were confirmed to lower ranks this week — one-star to three-star — can move into their assigned spots as quickly as possible, but that process will take time, said Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh. Some officers may be assigned to a temporary posting to wait out the holds, allowing their replacements to move up. “It’s not just flicking a switch and suddenly everyone moves into these new positions,” Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters. “All of that has to be carefully orchestrated.” Top officials say the holdup has real-world effects, as the Pentagon deals with conflicts on multiple fronts, from supporting Ukraine and Israel to fending off attacks on ground forces in Iraq and Syria and naval forces in the Red Sea. “When it’s unclear whether or not your senior leaders are going to be in place at the time and place they’re needed, that of course creates unnecessary friction and does have impact on readiness,” Ryder said. In one prominent example, Tuberville is still blocking Lt. Gen. Gregory Guillot, the deputy commander at U.S. Central Command, who is nominated to be the new head of U.S. Northern Command. That means Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, who was confirmed to replace Guillot at Central Command, can’t do so. That also means Vice Adm. George Wikoff, who was confirmed to replace Cooper as the top commander overseeing all naval forces in the Middle East, has to stay put. The Domino effect continues down the line.
Senators grapple with aftershocks of Tuberville blockade - Senators are grappling with what the aftershocks of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) blockade of military promotions will look like — whether it will open the floodgates for members to institute widespread holds or scare them off. Tuberville relented on Tuesday, lifting his hold on hundreds of nominees after 10 months and ending a saga that has consumed the Senate GOP conference. But he left empty-handed, having not achieved his goal of forcing the Pentagon to repeal a policy that allows service members to be reimbursed for travel expenses to receive abortion care. The Alabama Republican expressed no regrets. But now lawmakers are questioning what the unprecedented ordeal could mean for the chamber going forward. “I think this is a really tough calculus problem to figure out,” said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), a conservative who backed Tuberville’s effort. “It’s probably more a decision of the heart than it is mathematically or politically figuring out if it’s worth it.” A number of Democrats remain worried the ex-Auburn University football coach will inspire some of his conservative colleagues to pick up the mantle on either military nominations or another area and stir up another batch of trouble lawmakers don’t have the appetite for. Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, pointed to Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) blanket hold on Justice Department nominees and lamented that there can be political benefits for those who go ahead with them. Vance is holding all DOJ nominees in protest of the pair of federal investigations into former President Trump over his handling of classified documents and push to overturn the 2020 election results. “It’s still a problem. … This is a new era in the Senate. It’s not very promising,” Durbin said. “[Tuberville] got nothing out of it except bad publicity and a lot of contributions, so I don’t know. If you want to raise money, you act out of character and scream, shout, wave your arms — do something outrageous.” “It’s unfortunate,” he added. Vance is not on the Senate Judiciary Committee, but his hold has kept U.S. attorney nominees from being considered on the floor expeditiously. As of last week, Vance says three nominees are subject to his hold.
House Passes Bill That States 'Anti-Zionism is Antisemitism' - The House on Tuesday passed a resolution that says “anti-Zionism is antisemitism,” the chamber’s latest piece of legislation conflating criticism of Israel with antisemitism.The resolution, which is presented as a resolution condemning antisemitism, passed in a vote of 314-14-92. Only thirteen Democrats and one Republican voted against the legislation, while 92 Democrats voted “present” in protest of a line buried in the bill that explicitly claims anti-Zionism is antisemitism.The Republican-drafted resolution declares that the House of Representatives “clearly and firmly states that anti-Zionism is antisemitism.” Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), the most senior Jewish member of the House, criticized the language of the bill ahead of the vote. “The resolution suggests that ALL anti-Zionism is antisemitism. That is either intellectually disingenuous or just factually wrong. And it unfairly implicates many of my orthodox former constituents in Brooklyn, many of whose families rose from the ashes of the Holocaust,” he said.Nadler claimed that “most anti-Zionism is antisemitism” but added that if authors of the bill “were at all familiar with Jewish history and culture, should know about Jewish anti-Zionism that was, and is, expressly NOT antisemitic.” While coming out strongly against the language, Nadler voted “present” instead of “no.” The thirteen Democrats who voted against the bill include Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Cori Bush (D-MO), Gerald E. Connolly (D-VA), Jesús García (D-IL), Raúl M. Grijalva (D-AZ), Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Summer Lee (D-PA), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Ayanna Pressley (D-MA), Delia Ramirez (D-IL), Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ), and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI).Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) was the only Republican to vote against the bill. Last week, he was the lone member of Congress to vote against a resolution that claimed “denying Israel’s right to exist is a form of antisemitism.”
3 university presidents to face grilling on campus antisemitism at House hearing -- The presidents of Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the University of Pennsylvania will be called to the mat Tuesday after weeks of backlash over their schools’ responses to surging antisemitism. “Over the past several weeks, we’ve seen countless examples of antisemitic demonstrators on college campuses,” House Education Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) said in a statement announcing the hearing titled “Holding Campus Leaders Accountable and Confronting Antisemitism.” The administrators, Foxx said, “have largely stood by, allowing horrific rhetoric to fester and grow.” The hearing will examine incidents of antisemitism on each of the campuses, with Republicans and probably Democrats chastising the presidents for their actions both before recent events and in response. GOP lawmakers have already called two other hearings to discuss the rise in antisemitism at American schools, bringing in experts who have said schools have not done enough and Jewish students who testified they did not feel safe on campus. Harvard and Pennsylvania both had billionaire donors cut their funding to the schools because of their responses. Harvard first came under criticism in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack after 30 student-led groups posted a letter that blamed the attack on Israel. University President Claudine Gay at first hesitated to condemn the letter, leading to anger and accusations the school did not care for its Jewish students. The Anti-Defamation League reported 312 antisemitic incidents from Oct. 7-23 in the U.S., which is up from 64 such incidents the group found in the same period in 2022. And antisemitism was on the rise even before the attack in October: The FBI found antisemitic hate crimes went up 25 percent from 2021 to 2022. In November, UPenn had to alert the FBI about emails that were sent to university staff that were “threatening violence against members of our Jewish community, specifically naming Penn Hillel and Lauder College House,” according to President Liz Magill. The MIT Israel Alliance wrote a letter to the university alleging that Jewish and Israeli students were at one point “physically prevented” from going to class by a “pro-Hamas” group. At the end of November, the Department of Education announced it was investigating Harvard after complaints it did not respond to reports of harassment against Jewish and Israeli students since Oct. 7. The department was already investigating complaints of antisemitism and Islamophobia against seven other schools, including UPenn. “The University’s silence in the face of reprehensible and historic Hamas evil against the people of Israel (when the only response should be outright condemnation) is a new low. Silence is antisemitism, and antisemitism is hate, the very thing higher ed was built to obviate,” former U.S. Ambassador and longtime UPenn donor Jon Huntsman said in a letter to Magill. An MIT student recently told The Hill the school’s administration has ignored the calls for more protection for students. “You have administrators and people in power making students feel so scared and unsafe on campus, and the MIT administration is fully aware of every single one of these cases,” said Talia Khan, a 25-year-old grad student.
White House weighs in university presidents’ remarks at antisemitism hearing: ‘Unbelievable’ -The White House on Wednesday scolded the presidents of Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for their responses a day earlier at a House on antisemitism hearing. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) asked all the presidents if a call for the genocide of Jewish people would be considered harassment under their campus policies. None of the trio directly answered the question, saying it would need to be investigated by the school or depended on the context and how pervasive the calls were. “It’s unbelievable that this needs to be said: Calls for genocide are monstrous and antithetical to everything we represent as a country,” White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said. “Any statements that advocate for the systematic murder of Jews are dangerous and revolting – and we should all stand firmly against them, on the side of human dignity and the most basic values that unite us as Americans,” Bates added. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre later on Wednesday said that calls for genocide “unacceptable” and “vile,” adding that if someone who worked in the administration made comments like that, they would be called out“Statements that advocate for the systemic murder of Jews are appalling and we should all stand against them,” she said. “I should not have to be saying this at the podium.”The schools have faced widespread backlash for the comments, with Republican presidential candidate and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley threatening to pull the schools’ tax-exempt status.Harvard has tried to backtrack with a new statement from President Claudine Gay clarifying her position on the issue. “There are some who have confused a right to free expression with the idea that Harvard will condone calls for violence against Jewish students. Let me be clear: Calls for violence or genocide against the Jewish community, or any religious or ethnic group are vile, they have no place at Harvard, and those who threaten our Jewish students will be held to account,” Gay said.
College presidents seek to clarify position on calls for Jewish genocide after blowback - The University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) and Harvard University presidents posted remarks online Wednesday seeking to clarify their position after refusing to state unequivocally that calling for the genocide of Jews violates their school harassment rules.The presidents were joined by the president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on Tuesday when they were chastised in Congress for their responses to the rise of antisemitism on their respective campuses since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.Lawmakers asked the presidents if calling for the genocide of Jews violated the schools’ bullying and harassment policies. The school presidents generally said the speech could be investigated if warranted, but it would be a context-based decision whether it violated school policies.Harvard President Claudine Gay, who took some of the biggest hits in the hearing, said it has been a difficult task balancing free speech and student safety during these times. In a statement posted online, she said, “There are some who have confused a right to free expression with the idea that Harvard will condone calls for violence against Jewish students.”“Let me be clear: Calls for violence or genocide against the Jewish community, or any religious or ethnic group are vile, they have no place at Harvard, and those who threaten our Jewish students will be held to account,” Gay said.
House Education chair announces probe into Harvard, MIT, Penn over ‘rampant antisemitism’ -- House Education Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) announced Thursday an investigation into three top colleges following major backlash to their presidents’ testimony at a hearing about antisemitism on campuses this week. “The testimony we received earlier this week from Presidents [Claudine] Gay, [Liz] Magill, and [Sally] Kornbluth about the responses of Harvard, [University of Pennsylvania], and [the Massachusetts Institute of Technology] to the rampant antisemitism displayed on their campuses by students and faculty was absolutely unacceptable,” Foxx said in a statement. “Given those institutional and personal failures, the Committee is opening a formal investigation into the learning environments at Harvard, UPenn, and MIT and their policies and disciplinary procedures.” The announcement comes after the presidents have faced calls to resign and bipartisan condemnation after not saying calls for a Jewish genocide would be considered harassment on their campuses. Foxx threatened to “utilize compulsory measures including subpoenas” to get the “substantial” number of documents the House wants to see. “The disgusting targeting and harassment of Jewish students is not limited to these institutions, and other universities should expect investigations as well, as their litany of similar failures has not gone unnoticed,” she said. Both Penn and Harvard’s presidents have released statements since their testimony clarifying their positions on the matter, but it has done little to quell the anger many feel at their responses during the hearing. “Let me be clear: Calls for violence or genocide against the Jewish community, or any religious or ethnic group are vile, they have no place at Harvard, and those who threaten our Jewish students will be held to account,” Harvard President Claudine Gay said.
How accusations of college antisemitism went from bad to worse with one House hearing - College leaders seeking to fend off accusations of failing to protect their students from rising antisemitism have instead shot themselves in the foot. For weeks the presidents of Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) were drowning in criticism of not taking the problem seriously enough after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and a House hearing this week put them further into treacherous water. The opportunity for the presidents to make the public feel confident in their steps has turned into calls for their resignation after all three tried to sidestep a question on if a call for the genocide of Jewish people would be considered harassment. That blow came towards the end of the four-hour House Education Committee hearing, when Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) got an opportunity to question all three presidents for the sixth time, after other Republicans yielded her their time. Harvard President Claudine Gay said such a genocidal call could violate the school’s policies “depending on the context.” Sally Kornbluth, the head of MIT, said the calls would need to be “pervasive” and would warrant an investigation. Penn President Liz Magill got into a longer back-and-forth with Stefanik on the issue, with it ultimately coming to a head when Magill testified: “If the speech becomes conduct, it can be harassment.” “Conduct meaning committing the act of genocide?” Stefanik retorted. The pushback was swift and strong, with the White House calling it“unbelievable that this needs to be said: Calls for genocide are monstrous and antithetical to everything we represent as a country.” On Thursday, Education Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) announced “a formal investigation into the learning environments at Harvard, UPenn, and MIT and their policies and disciplinary procedures.” “The testimony we received earlier this week from Presidents Gay, Magill, and Kornbluth about the responses of Harvard, UPenn, and MIT to the rampant antisemitism displayed on their campuses by students and faculty was absolutely unacceptable,” Foxx said. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) called on Penn’s board of directors to convene “soon” to have a “serious discussion” on if Magill’s comments represent the “values” of the university. “That was an unacceptable statement from the president of Penn,” Shapiro said. “Frankly, I thought her comments were absolutely shameful. It should not be hard to condemn genocide.”
Sanders to target diabetes, weight loss drugs like Ozempic -- The Senate Health Committee will hold a hearing next week on the diabetes epidemic in the U.S., committee Chair Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said. Sanders, who earlier this year interrogated drug manufacturers about the high cost of insulin, told The Hill the hearing will focus broadly on the underlying causes of the rise in diabetes, especially in children. “Focusing on why we are seeing a huge increase, and have seen a huge increase over the last 30 years, in the number of diabetics in this country, and the relationship to that explosion … with what our kids are eating,” Sanders said in a brief interview. Sanders also said he wanted to look into an emerging class of drugs called GLP-1 medications, like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro that are used to treat Type 2 diabetes. The drugs have exploded in popularity in recent years, as new uses have been discovered. They’ve gone from helping people control their diabetes to being used for obesity, and studies have shown there is potential to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and even some cancers. The drugs are so popular the demand has exceeded supply, leading to a manufacturing shortage. They can help patients lose a dramatic amount of weight but cost more than $1,000 a month, and insurers often institute policies like lifetime coverage caps, onerous paperwork rules, or even outright refusal to cover the drugs even if they’re approved by the Food and Drug Administration.
House GOP Would Have Taxpayers Pay for Cleanup When Fracking Boom Goes Bust – A house committee is considering legislation introduced by Colorado Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert that could leave taxpayers on the hook for up to $17.7 billion in costs associated with cleaning up oil and gas wells abandoned on public lands by fracking companies and other polluters, according to a new report from the watchdog group Public Citizen. Oil and gas industry lobbyists and their allies on Capitol Hill are working to defeat a Biden administration proposal that would strengthen federal requirements designed to force fossil fuel companies to plug wells and clean up drilling sites on federal lands after extraction. Boebert’s bill would direct the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to withdraw its proposal, and the House Natural Resources Committee considered the bill for markup on Wednesday. “The boom-and-bust nature of the oil and gas industry puts taxpayers at higher risk for well cleanup because, when prices fall for oil and gas, bad actors have an economic incentive to just walk away from their wells, leaving taxpayers in the lurch,” Alan Zibel, a Public Citizen research director, said in a statement. The BLM manages vast swaths of land in the Western U.S. and a leasing program that allows fossil fuel companies to extract oil and gas from more than 89,000 wells across 23.7 million acres. Public Citizen reports that the industry has for decades exploited loose federal rules for drilling on public lands while the government charges “woefully inadequate royalties” to compensate the public for extraction. The industry then exports the oil and gas overseas or sells it back to U.S. consumers. President Joe Biden pledged on the campaign trail that his administration would not offer new leases allowing fossil fuel extraction to expand on public lands, but the president instead signed legislation hiking royalties for fossil fuel leases and directed federal regulators to develop tougher rules to reduce pollution and ensure that taxpayers don’t get stuck paying for cleanup after fracking booms go bust.Under federal rules, fossil fuel companies are required to post a bond in order to obtain a lease for drilling on federal land. If an oil and gas company abandons an exploration site, goes bankrupt, or fails to “plug” a well securely to prevent pollution from leaking out, the posted bond covers the government’s cost of cleaning up the drilling site. If the company cleans up after extraction, then the bond is returned. Using three different estimates for the average cost of plugging oil and gas wells and cleaning up an extraction site ranging from $35,000 on the low end to $200,000, Public Citizen estimates that abandoned wells on federal public lands could cost taxpayers $2.9 billion to $17.7 billion. These figures include the current required bond payment of $2,122 per well, which the Biden administration is pushing to increase.Boebert said small oil and gas companies are upset about new costs of doing business on public land. Large fossil fuel corporations can easily absorb the costs and often support Biden-era regulations to save face during the climate crisis and gain a competitive advantage over smaller competitors.“These increases will impact smaller producers who can’t operate in the market,” Boebert said on Wednesday.Smaller oil and gas extractors in particular are notorious for abandoning “orphaned wells” and declaring bankruptcy when oil and gas prices drop or wells simply go dry. In Louisiana, where the oil and gas industry has been around for a century, more than 4,600 wells abandoned years ago have become the cash-strapped state’s responsibility and are known to pose a danger to children and the public while leaking pollution into sensitive ecosystems.Western states, such as Texas, New Mexico and Boebert’s home state of Colorado are currently experiencing a massive fracking boom and will likely face the same problem years down the line. There are currently more than 81,000 documented orphaned wells nationwide,according to the Environmental Defense Fund. Inactive and abandoned wells are often left to rust and are capable of releasing more climate-warming emissions into the atmosphere than active wells.
"I'm Leaving The House": Ousted Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy Taking His Ball, Going Home -- After getting his ass handed to him in a historic ouster, former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) - whose speakership was the shortest in more than 140 years - is quitting Congress .In a Wednesday WSJ Op-Ed, McCarthy tooted his own horn over having "helped lead Republicans to a House majority—twice," and having "passed legislation to secure the border, achieve energy independence, reduce crime, hold government accountable and establish a Parents’ Bill of Rights." We kept our eyes on America’s long-term global challenges by restoring the Intelligence Committee to its original charter and establishing a bipartisan Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. We reduced the deficit by more than $2 trillion, revamped work requirements for adults on the sidelines, cut red tape for critical domestic energy projects, and protected the full faith and credit of the U.S. We kept our government operating and our troops paid while wars broke out around the world. –WSJ After congratulating himself, McCarthy then announced that he's outta there... "It is in this spirit that I have decided to depart the House at the end of this year to serve America in new ways," adding (of course), I know my work is only getting started."McCarthy has vowed to "continue to recruit our country’s best and brightest to run for elected office," and "helping entrepreneurs and risk-takers reach their full potential."
Here’s how McCarthy’s resignation affects House GOP’s slim majority -The resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), combined with other expected resignations and the recent expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), shines a spotlight on the math problems facing the razor-thin House GOP majority. In coming months, it is in the realm of possibility that the House GOP majority shrinks so much that Republicans will be able to afford to lose just two votes on any party-line measure, depending on timing of resignations, special elections to fill vacancies and which party wins control of the Santos seat. Republicans are acutely aware of the pressures of the slim majority. The House GOP conference has been plagued by multiple failed or punted party-line votes on spending bills in recent months — not to mention having its Speaker ousted after eight Republicans joined with Democrats. The slim majority also heightens the importance of member absences and “present” votes, which change the numbers needed to pass a bill. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), known for posting memes on X, joked about McCarthy’s departure possibly leaving Republicans with a two-seat majority. And Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) highlighted the perils of a slim GOP majority in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter: “Hopefully no one dies.” One of the biggest potential party-line votes they may face early next year is on impeachment articles against President Biden, if the House GOP — which is planning to hold a formal vote to authorize the inquiry next week — opts to pursue impeachment articles.McCarthy’s resignation at the end of the year, which he announced Wednesday, will not immediately change the House GOP’s majority cushion. Even with the two new vacancies, Republicans will keep a three-vote cushion on any party-line measure. With McCarthy and Santos gone, it leaves 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, but the threshold for a majority will dip from 218 members to 217 members. But a special election to replace Santos is set for Feb. 13 — and the race for the Long Island seat, which Santos flipped when he won in 2022, is highly competitive. Election analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated the special election as a “toss-up” immediately following the expulsion vote. If a Democrat wins the New York special election for Santos’s seat, the House would be left with 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats and one vacancy, meaning Republicans could lose just two votes on any party-line measure.
Graham responds to Cheney’s dire warnings about second Trump term -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) responded to former Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) dire warnings about a potential second term for former President Trump by claiming President Biden’s reelection would be much worse for the country.Cheney warned in an interview with CBS’s John Dickerson that the United States is “sleepwalking into dictatorship” as the possibility of Trump winning another term in the White House in 2024 looms. Graham responded to her comments on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, arguing Trump was a better president than Biden. “I think a continuation of the Biden presidency would be a disaster for peace and prosperity at home and abroad,” Graham said. “Our border is broken. The only person who is really going to fix a broken border is Donald Trump. When he was president, none of this stuff was going on in Ukraine. Hamas and all these other terrorist groups were afraid of Trump.”“I think Liz’s s hatred of Trump is real,” he added.Graham has been a staunch ally of the former president and has repeatedly defended him as he faces numerous criminal cases. The South Carolina senator said Sunday that if Biden is reelected, “then we won’t recognize America and the world will be truly on fire.”Cheney, a prominent Trump critic, has been on a media tour to promote her forthcoming book, “Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning.” She has been repeatedly warning against electing Trump to the White House again, suggesting doing so could spell the end of American democracy.She also said in the CBS interview that reelecting a GOP majority in the House “presents a threat” to the country. She added that members of the Republican Party “haven’t chosen the Constitution.”
Trump declines to rule out abusing power or seeking retribution (AP) — Former President Donald Trump declined to rule out abusing power if he returns to the White House after Fox News Channel host Sean Hannityasked him Tuesday to respond to growing Democratic criticism of his rhetoric.The GOP presidential front-runner has talked about targeting his rivals — referring to them as “vermin” — and vowed to seek retribution if he wins a second term for what he argues are politically motivated prosecutions against him. As Trump has dominated the Republican presidential primary, President Joe Biden has stepped up his own warnings, contending Trump is “ determined to destroy American democracy.”“Under no circumstances, you are promising America tonight, you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody?” Hannity asked Trump in the interview taped in Davenport, Iowa.“Except for day one,” Trump responded. “I want to close the border and I want to drill, drill, drill.” Trump then repeated his assertion. “I love this guy,” he said of the Fox News host. “He says, ‘You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?’ I said: ‘No, no, no, other than day one. We’re closing the border and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.’”Earlier in the interview, Hannity had asked Trump if he “in any way” had “any plans whatsoever, if reelected president, to abuse power, to break the law to use the government to go after people.”“You mean like they’re using right now?” Trump replied.Trump’s campaign rhetoric and sweeping plans for a second term that include firing large swaths of the federal bureaucracy and targeting his rivals have alarmed Democrats and become a chief election argument for Biden as he prepares for a potential rematch against Trump.“Donald Trump has been telling us exactly what he will do if he’s reelected and tonight he said he will be a dictator on day one. Americans should believe him,” Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a statement.
Senate anti-Trump GOP see Haley as best hope to avoid disaster - Senate Republicans who are concerned about former President Trump’s viability in a general election now see Nikki Haley as the last, best chance of denying Trump the GOP presidential nomination and averting what they see as a potential general election disaster. GOP senators who don’t support Trump acknowledge he could win the presidency, given President Biden’s weak job approval ratings, but they view Haley as much more electable because she does not alienate independent and suburban women voters like Trump does. They are worried that if Trump is the GOP nominee, it could still lead to a disastrous result for their party. GOP lawmakers recognize that Trump has a commanding lead in GOP primary polls, but many see Haley as a better choice because she does not face Trump’s legal issues that include 91 felony counts in four separate criminal trials. They also see Haley as a candidate far less likely to blindside them with wild statements or sudden sweeping policy pronouncements that would become political landmines in next year’s battle for the Senate majority. The growing buzz around Haley comes at a time when many GOP senators are writing off Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s chances of staging a comeback. “She has better prospects than he does because her numbers are going up and his are coming down. Usually, you want to place your bet on someone who is doing better,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who has urged Republican donors to coalesce around an alternative to Trump as early as possible in next year’s primary. Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), who has repeatedly stressed the importance of appealing to moderate and independent voters beyond the GOP’s conservative base, said Haley “seems to be” emerging as the leading alternative to Trump. “She’s acquitted herself really well in the debates, and I think has done well out on the stump. Part of running for national office — especially in those early states — is relatability, and I think she’s got a good retail political style. Seems to be winning over some people,” he said.
And the grand total of times candidates attacked Trump on the debate stage is… Donald Trump has gotten kid glove treatment from his Republican opponents throughout a crucial stretch of the primary season — and the numbers prove it. A POLITICO analysis of the four GOP debates reveals a surprising pattern: With each debate, the candidates have been more and more inclined to go after each other instead of Trump, the far-and-away leader in the polls. The trend continued on Wednesday night, when only Chris Christie, the lowest-polling contender to make the debate stage, mounted sustained attacks on the former president. The analysis, based on transcripts from Rev.com, an audio transcription service, identified how often Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Christie attacked Trump, President Joe Biden and each other across the four debates. All direct criticisms, in which candidates called out each other by name, were included. So were more veiled attacks when the target was clear, like the moment in the third debate when Ramaswamy compared Haley to “Dick Cheney in three inch heels,” adding “in which case, we’ve got two of them on stage tonight” — a jab at DeSantis amid speculation that the Florida governor wears shoe lifts. The volume of attacks directed at other GOP rivals underscores how the debates have largely been a fight for second place. And coupled with polling indicating Trump’s lead has only grown since the debates started in August, it may validate the former president’s decision to skip the debates altogether.
Biden tells donors: 'If Trump wasn’t running I’m not sure I’d be running. We cannot let him win' (AP) — President Joe Biden told campaign donors Tuesday that he wasn’t sure he’d be running for reelection if Donald Trump wasn’t also in the race, warning that democracy is “more at risk in 2024” and that the former president and his allies are out to “destroy” democratic institutions. The president was using a trio of fundraisers to caution against what might happen should his predecessor again claim control of the White House, noting that Trump has described himself as his supporters’ “retribution” and has vowed to root out “vermin” in the country. “We’ve got to get it done, not because of me. ... If Trump wasn’t running I’m not sure I’d be running. We cannot let him win,” Biden said, hitting the last words slowly for emphasis. Biden’s forceful rhetoric came as Trump, the current GOP front-runner, who tried to overturn the 2020 election he lost and is facing criminal charges connected to those efforts, attempted over the weekend to turn the tables by calling Biden the “destroyer of American democracy.”
House GOP touts Hunter Biden payments; Counsel says they were for truck --House Republicans ramping up their impeachment inquiry are touting subpoenaed financial records that show President Biden received monthly payments from a business account for his son Hunter Biden in between his time as vice president and president. But Hunter Biden’s attorney is pushing back at the House GOP, saying that the monthly $1,380 transfers were made to repay his father for a truck payment that Hunter Biden was unable to finance himself.House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), who is leading an impeachment probe into Biden based in part on his family’s foreign business dealings, released subpoenaed bank records showing monthly direct payments to Joe Biden from Hunter Biden’s Owasco PC business account, noting that the company did business with “Chinese-state linked companies and other foreign nationals and companies.”“This wasn’t a payment from Hunter Biden’s personal account but an account for his corporation that received payments from China and other shady corners of the world,” Comer said in a video alongside the release of the subpoenaed records.The Hill is told that the committee is aware of three monthly payments of $1,380 each to Joe Biden from the Owasco PC account, on Sept. 17, 2018; Oct. 15, 2018; and Nov. 15 2018 — all after Biden’s time as vice president and before he announced his 2020 presidential bid.House GOP leaders, who are preparing for a formal impeachment inquiry vote in the coming weeks, shared the news of the payments to argue that Joe Biden had knowingly benefited from his family’s foreign business dealings. “Joe Biden and the White House can’t continue to claim he wasn’t involved with his son’s shady businesses now,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.But Hunter Biden’s legal counsel, Abbe Lowell, pushed back.“There Chairman Comer goes again — reheating what is old as new to try to revive his sham of an investigation,” Lowell said in a statement. “The truth is Hunter’s father helped him when he was struggling financially due to his addiction and could not secure credit to finance a truck. When Hunter was able to, he paid his father back and took over the payments himself.”Reporting from the New York Post in April 2022, based on leaked emails from a hard drive purportedly belonging to Hunter Biden, had previously highlighted a list of Hunter Biden’s bills that his then-personal assistant said in an email would temporarily be covered by Joe Biden as Hunter “transitions in his career.” Included in that was a regular $1,380 payment for a 2018 Ford Raptor truck.“Payment to JRB from RHB – autopay owasco acct,” said notes on the 2019 spreadsheet reported by the New York Post. “Purchased June 2018 after selling Silverado & Colorado trucks,” it added, along with “Insured by Chubb; JRB’s policy.”Oversight Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) pointed to the New York Post story in response to Comer’s release.“Chair Comer is digging up old public reporting, distorting the facts, and presenting it as ‘breaking news,’” Raskin wrote in a post on X. “As a private citizen, Joe Biden made car payments for his son, who paid him back—it’s right here in the NY Post.”
VP Biden Linking Ukraine Loan To Prosecutor's Firing Surprised State Department Officials, Emails Show -Key White House and National Security Council and State Department officials were caught by surprise when they learned in January 2016 that then-Vice President Joe Biden had abruptly changed U.S. policy to require the firing of Ukrainian Special Prosecutor Viktor Shokin as a condition for receiving $1 billion in U.S.-backed International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans, according to House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) citing emails reviewed by The Epoch Times."There are State Department emails where they are, like, 'Oh!' surprised. There were people in the State Department saying, 'Oh, Biden says they aren't getting the money unless Shokin is fired,' and they are surprised, saying, 'Why did you do that, we didn't talk about this; we didn't plan that.' So it was a total change from the consensus where the State Department was," Mr. Jordan told reporters during a Monday question-and-answer session focused on the status of the House impeachment investigation of President Biden.Whether the vice president was pushing for Mr. Shokin's ouster to aid his son Hunter Biden's business dealings is a focus of the impeachment inquiry. Hunter Biden sat on the board of Ukrainian energy firm Burisma, which was being investigated by Mr. Shokin.Investigators with Mr. Jordan's panel and the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, chaired by Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), and the House Ways and Means Committee, chaired by Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), are focused on President Biden's alleged participation in and benefitting from his family's receipt of millions of dollars of income throughout a period of several decades from individuals, as well as corporate and state entities, in Ukraine, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Romania during and after the senior Biden's years as Vice-President under President Barack Obama.In one of the State Department emails to which Mr. Jordan referred, Eric Ciaramella, a White House National Security Council (NSC) deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia, expressed shock to three colleagues on Jan. 21, 2016, saying, "Yikes. I don't recall this coming up in our meeting with them on Tuesday."Mr. Ciaramella, who did not respond to The Epoch Times' request for comment, was reacting to an email sent earlier in the day from Elisabeth Zentos, an NSC colleague that was also addressed to Geoffrey Pyatt, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine from 2013 to 2016, and Anna Makanju, who was then a Special Adviser to Mr. Biden for Europe and Eurasia. Mr. Ciaramella is now a Senior Fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Mr. Pyatt, who is presently the State Department's Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources, could not be reached for comment, according to a State Department spokesman, because he is in Dubai attending the COP28 Climate Change International Conference. Ms. Makanju, who is now Vice President for Global Affairs at San Francisco-based OpenAI, did not respond to The Epoch Times request for comment.Mr. Pyatt responded to the Zentos email, saying, "Buckle in," and adding, "We also need to readdress all the LG [loan guarantee] anti-corruption conditions ... and at this stage, there's only one that really matters." Ms. Makanju did not respond in the email thread reviewed by The Epoch Times.Mr. Jordan said State Department officials were surprised to learn of Mr. Biden's ultimatum to Mr. Poroshenko because it was previously settled U.S. policy to pressure Ukraine to root out official corruption that had plagued the country since it declared its independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991.But until Mr. Biden did so, the U.S. had not made Ukraine's receipt of the IMF loan guarantees conditional upon Mr. Shokin's removal. Briefing materials reviewed by the vice president during his December 2015 flight to Ukraine included planning for him to sign the U.S. agreement to back the IMF loans, with no reference to firing Mr. Shokin.The judiciary chairman contends Mr. Biden's abrupt reversal followed from the fact his son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the board of directors of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma, which was being actively investigated by Mr. Shokin regarding allegations of corruption.
House GOP releases Biden impeachment inquiry resolution ahead of planned vote - The House GOP released a resolution Thursday to formalize its months-long impeachment inquiry into President Biden, with a full House vote planned for next week. The resolution authorizing the inquiry — released months after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) declared an impeachment inquiry to be underway in September — comes as a trio of committee leaders overseeing the probes enter a more combative phase of their investigation as they try to wrangle witnesses and documents. It says the panels are “directed to continue their ongoing investigations as part of the House of Representatives inquiry into whether sufficient grounds exist for the House of Representatives to exercise its Constitutional power to impeach Joseph Biden.” A markup of the resolution is scheduled for Tuesday. Republicans hope that formally authorizing the inquiry will put more legal weight behind the probe and their ability to compel evidence, particularly if any of those battles end up in court. While responding to subpoenas and interview requests in November, the White House had argued that the House GOP’s impeachment inquiry was unconstitutional because it had not been formalized with a vote of the whole House. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told reporters this week that while the GOP disagreed with that assessment, the White House letter helped push the House GOP to formalize the inquiry. “Constitutionally, it’s not required. Speaker said we’re [in] an impeachment inquiry, [then] we’re in an impeachment inquiry,” Jordan said. “But if you have a vote of the full House of Representatives and the majority say we’re in that official status as part of our overall oversight work or constitutional oversight duty that we have, it just helps us in court.” In anticipation of that vote, Democrats and the White House in recent days pointed to previous statements from swing-seat Republicans and moderates casting doubt on whether impeachment is warranted. They have also pointed to cries from Republicans when then-President Trump’s impeachment began without taking a formal vote. But many of those same GOP members say that taking the step to authorize an inquiry is a much different question than a vote on actual impeachment articles.
Hunter Biden Threatened With Contempt Of Congress If He Bails On Testimony Hunter Biden will be slapped with contempt of congress if he skips out on his Dec. 13 closed-door deposition, according to a Wednesday letter from House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan to Hunter's defense attorney, Abbe D. Lowell."Contrary to the assertions in your letter, there is no ‘choice’ for Mr. Biden to make; the subpoenas compel him to appear for a deposition on December 13. If Mr. Biden does not appear for his deposition on December 13, 2023, the Committees will initiate contempt of Congress proceedings," reads the letter, issued a week after Lowell suggested that Hunter should instead be allowed to testify publicly.Hunter was subpoenaed on Nov. 8 to appear for a deposition before the committee. In response, Comer said: "Hunter Biden is trying to play by his own rules instead of following the rules required of everyone else," adding "Our lawfully issued subpoena to Hunter Biden requires him to appear for a deposition on December 13."Comer and Jordan are investigating extensive evidence that the Biden family was running an international influence peddling scheme, raking in tens of millions of dollars from foreign business partners despite no obvious product or service in exchange.House lawmakers are also seeking testimony from Hunter's uncle James Biden, as well as multiple former business associates.
Hunter Biden charged with nine criminal counts for allegedly failing to pay taxes - - A federal grand jury in California has indicted Hunter Biden on nine charges, including three felonies, for failing to pay his taxes, understating his income and exaggerating his expenses on tax returns between 2016 and 2019.With separate criminal charges against him pending in Delaware for illegally possessing a gun, the president’s son could face two criminal trials next year as his father runs for reelection against Donald Trump, who himself is facing four criminal cases.The Hunter Biden cases were brought by special counsel David Weiss, the Delaware prosecutor who has long supervised the federal probe into the president’s son.The new charges include tax evasion, filing false returns, failure to file returns on time, and failing to pay federal taxes. They carry a maximum possible prison term of 17 years, although defendants typically get shorter sentences under federal guidelines.Each of the tax charges accuses Biden of acting “willfully,” something his defense is sure to contest since he has acknowledged struggling for years with drug addiction.Prosecutors acknowledge those issues at points in the indictment, but say Biden spent lavishly on an “extravagant lifestyle” while shirking on his taxes, including paying for “drugs, escorts and girlfriends, luxury hotels and rental properties, exotic cars, clothing and other items of a personal nature.”"[After] five years of investigating with no new evidence — and two years after Hunter paid his taxes in full — the U.S. Attorney has piled on nine new charges when he had agreed just months ago to resolve this matter with a pair of misdemeanors,” Hunter Biden’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, said in a statement. “I wrote U.S. Attorney Weiss days ago seeking a customary meeting to discuss this investigation. The response was media leaks today that these charges were being filed.” The charges come amid an effort by House Republicans to link President Joe Biden to his son’s business dealings as part of an impeachment inquiry, though the inquiry has produced no evidence that the elder Biden took any actions as president or vice president to corruptly enrich his family.
With Hunter’s indictment, Democrats face a moment of maddening truth - Jonathan Turley - Aldous Huxley once said, “you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad.”Such a moment of madness has arrived in Congress as members prepare to vote on the formal approval of an impeachment inquiry. The second indictment of Hunter Biden shattered long-standing denials and narratives repeated by the White House and members of Congress. What is left in its wake is now plain to the public: corruption. The vote is not whether to impeach President Biden, but whether members support the investigation into these growing allegations of corruption by the Biden family. According to recent polling, nearly 70 percent of voters (and 40 percent of Democrats) believe that Biden has acted unlawfully or unethically or both. Yet with almost half of the Democratic Party viewing Biden’s conduct as worthy of investigation, it is not clear whether a single Democratic member will vote to look into these allegations.In September, I testified at the first impeachment inquiry hearing and stated that the evidence had clearly passed the threshold for such an inquiry. While there was no requirement to hold a formal vote to start this process (as the Democrats did with Trump), I encouraged the members to hold such a vote.Since that hearing, the evidence has only mounted against President Biden. It is now clear that Biden lied when he maintained as a candidate, and later as president, that he had no knowledge of his son’s business dealings with foreign interests. Even Hunter himself contradicted the president on this claim.It is also now clear that he lied in denying that his son never made money in China. The indictment confirms massive transfers from Chinese sources.It is also clear that Hunter was engaged in raw influence peddling. This included threatening at least one Chinese businessman that his father was sitting next to him and would retaliate against him if he did not send millions to the Bidens. President Biden also lied when he claimed this week that he had not had any “interactions” with his son’s business associates. There are emails, audiotapes and testimony now disproving that claim.Millions of dollars flowed to Biden family members through a labyrinth of shell companies and accounts. Hunter Biden sent emails saying that up to half of his income went to his father while they used shared accounts and credit cards for expenses.Even Biden associates now admit that they were selling “the Biden brand” and influence with Joe Biden. Advocates simply argue that they were merely selling the “illusion” of influence.It is now time to see if a single Democratic member will stand against corruption and support an inquiry into the president’s role and later cover-up of this corruption. That includes the use of White House staff to spread false claims and attack critics.
White House reups Biden’s pledge not to pardon son if convicted: ‘Nothing has changed’ - The White House reiterated President Biden’s pledge that he would not pardon his son, Hunter Biden, if he is convicted amid his ongoing legal battles.White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the president had not changed his mind on the statement in the wake of new tax crime charges brought against the younger Biden in California, when reporters asked.“Nothing has changed,” Jean-Pierre said Friday during a gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Las Vegas. “That is still the case.”Hunter Biden was indicted Thursday on three felony tax charges in relation to tax evasion and filing a false return, and six misdemeanor charges for failure to pay taxes between 2016 and 2019. The charges mark his second indictment from special counsel David Weiss.During the gaggle, Jean-Pierre deflected questions on how the president reacted to his son’s additional charges and if the two had spoken since.“I mean, the president has said this before, and he will continue to say, which is that he loves his son and supports him as he continues to rebuild his life,” Jean-Pierre said in a gaggle with reporters aboard Air Force One.“I’m going to be really careful and not comment on this and refer you to Department of Justice or my colleagues at the White House Counsel,” she added.
Trump's defense at civil fraud trial zooms in on Mar-a-Lago -- Former President Donald Trump’s civil business fraud trial turned Tuesday to one of the topics that has vexed him most — the value of his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida.Testifying for Trump’s defense, a Florida real estate attorney said the property could be sold as a home, notwithstanding decades-old legal documents in which Trump said he intended to forswear its use as anything but a club. Then a Palm Beach luxury real estate broker testified that he’d value the historic estate at over $1 billion as of 2021.“It’s something breathtaking. It’s something amazing to see,” broker Lawrence Moens said before showing a glimmering video complete with swelling music, aerial shots of the property at sunrise and sunset and a closing image of an American flag. His testimony was punctuated by wry remarks. He described a photo of a different part of ritzy Palm Beach as showing “some land, some houses,” for instance.At one point, Moens even briefly answered a personal phone call while on the witness stand: “Dad, I love you, but I’ve got to get off the phone.”Spanning 17 acres (7 hectares) with waterfront on two sides, the Trump estate and social club is his home, a place where the former president and current Republican 2024 front-runner has conducted high-profile meetings while in and out of office, and the spot where federal special counsel Jack Smith alleges he improperly stashed classified documents, which Trump denies.Mar-a-Lago also is a key element of the current New York civil case and Trump’s vehement frustration with it.State Attorney General Letitia James’ lawsuit claims that the ex-president and his company deceived lenders and others by giving them financial statements that greatly overstated the values of some of his prime assets, including Mar-a-Lago.Judge Arthur Engoron, in a pretrial ruling declaring that Trump and his company engaged in fraud, found that he exaggerated Mar-a-Lago’s worth by as much as 2,300%, compared to the Palm Beach County tax appraiser’s valuations. They ranged from $18 million to $28 million.Trump denies any wrongdoing, saying that his financial statements actually undervalued his assets and were accompanied by disclaimers that wipe away liability for any mistakes.His frequent complaints about the case have often spotlighted the claims about Mar-a-Lago, one of the holdings he called “the Mona Lisas of properties” during pretrial questioning. As recently as last Friday, Trump vented on his Truth Social platform that the judge and James “falsified the value of Mar-a-Lago.”The Palm Beach County tax assessment that the judge mentioned was based on Mar-a-Lago’s annual net operating income as a club, not on its resale value as a home or on its reconstruction cost. The county uses the operating-income method to value other social clubs, and the outcome carries tax benefits for Trump — a $602,000 property tax bill this year, compared to about $18 million if Mar-a-Lago were assessed at $1 billion.
Trump seeks pause in Jan. 6 proceedings amid appeal effort to toss federal case Former President Trump filed a motion seeking to halt activity in his election interference case after filing a notice of appeal Thursday seeking to override a decision from a federal judge who denied his motion to toss the case. The back-to-back motions ask Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing the Jan. 6 case, to pause “all district court proceedings in this case” as a higher court considers Trump’s appeal of the motion to toss the entire case. The maneuver threatens to upend Trump’s March 4 trial date in the case, and comes after prosecutors have argued the former president is simply using every avenue possible to disrupt the case in the hopes of punting the matter beyond the 2024 election. Trump is facing charges on four counts in relation to his efforts to stay in power after losing the 2020 election. Chutkan last Friday declined a motion from Trump that sought to dismiss the case based both on the concept of presidential immunity, as well as constitutional grounds, including the First Amendment. “Whatever immunities a sitting President may enjoy, the United States has only one Chief Executive at a time, and that position does not confer a lifelong ‘get-out-of-jail-free’ pass, Former Presidents enjoy no special conditions on their federal criminal liability,” Chutkan wrote in the 48-page ruling. “Defendant may be subject to federal investigation, indictment, prosecution, conviction, and punishment for any criminal acts undertaken while in office,” she added. The notice of appeal from Trump does not contain any legal arguments, which will come in a later filing. But in asking to stay the proceedings, Trump’s attorneys bashed Chutkan’s decision. “The Court incorrectly denied President Trump’s claim of Presidential immunity on the ground that such immunity does not extend to federal criminal prosecution for a President’s official acts,” they wrote. Beyond arguments that Trump, as a former president, still carries presidential immunity, in a 31-page brief filed in October, he likewise argued the prosecution represented a case of “double jeopardy” as he already faced an impeachment trial in the Senate following Jan. 6. “But neither traditional double jeopardy principles nor the Impeachment Judgment Clause provide that a prosecution following impeachment acquittal violates double jeopardy,” Chutkan wrote.
Trump lawyer says he will take stand in fraud trial regardless of gag order -Former President Trump’s attorney Alina Habba claimed Friday that her client would take the stand on Monday in his civil fraud trial, despite the judge’s gag order and discouragement from his legal team. “I will say and I still say that having any client get on a stand with a gag order as limited or large as this is a First Amendment violation,” Habba argued in an interview with Fox News’s Martha Maccallum. “And you should not respect the court and give them the opportunity to hear you.”“But, he is going to take the stand regardless and he will navigate it,” she added.The attorney explained that while she didn’t want to block the former president from speaking on his behalf, he wouldn’t be able to give his testimony “fully and completely” under the gag order, which bars Trump and his counsel from speaking about the staff of the judge overseeing the case.“I would never discourage the former president from testifying, because quite honestly, our plan up until now was to have him testify, he always wanted to testify and he should testify,” Habba said. “When he has nothing to hide, it’s the best thing you could do is put this great witness on that is going to stand up and tell you the truth.”An appeals court issued a brief pause on the gag order in mid-November, after Trump’s legal team filed an emergency suit against Judge Arthur Engoron, who they argued casted “serious doubt” on his ability to remain partial in the case as he enforced the order. The order was reinstated last week, blocking the president from railing against Engoron or his clerk without facing penalties.Habba railed against the judge, who ruled in September that Trump was liable for fraud, reiterating what she told the judge earlier this week: “We need a directed verdict, meaning that they have not proven their case.”“They’ve closed their case, we are now putting on our case, and they cannot prove that we did anything wrong,” she told Maccallum. “Quite the contrary, all they’ve proven is that President Trump is worth a lot more than his financial condition. And if he wanted to inflate it, he would have put his brand alone — which is worth billions and billions and billions of dollars. But he didn’t because there was no fraud.”
Supreme Court appears divided over Purdue Pharma bankruptcy deal --Supreme Court justices appeared divided over Purdue Pharma’s bankruptcy deal Monday, questioning whether it can immunize the Sackler family from civil lawsuits for their role in the opioid crisis. Described by experts as among the most important corporate bankruptcy cases in decades, the dispute will dictate the fate of the years-in-the-making settlement and more broadly how companies can use bankruptcy to resolve mass injury claims. An overwhelming majority voted to approve Purdue Pharma’s settlement, but the Supreme Court on Monday wrestled with objections lodged by the Biden administration and a relatively small group of creditors concerning the liability releases for the Sacklers, who previously controlled the company. During a nearly two-hour argument that transcended ideological lines, several justices raised concerns about how the administration’s position would effectively unravel the settlement. Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted a 30-year history of bankruptcy courts approving such releases, also describing a “disconnect” between opioid victims and the administration as the conservative justice insisted the government was saying the perspective of victims “doesn’t matter.” “What the opioid victims and their families are saying is, you, the federal government, with no stake in this at all, are coming in and telling the families, ‘No, we’re not going to give you prompt payment for what’s happened to your family,’” Kavanaugh said. In 2019, OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma filed for bankruptcy as it faced a flood of lawsuits alleging the addictive painkiller’s aggressive marketing fueled the opioid epidemic. Sackler family members agreed to contribute up to $6 billion to the settlement in exchange for immunity from civil lawsuits. About 95 percent of creditors who voted supported the plan. But the U.S. Trustee Program, a component of the Justice Department that serves as a bankruptcy watchdog, asserts that federal law doesn’t permit immunizing third-parties like the Sacklers, who did not themselves file for bankruptcy, if not all creditors sign off. “This release goes beyond what the statute authorizes,” Deputy U.S. Solicitor General Curtis Gannon said. That type of release has served as a key tactic in other mass tort bankruptcy cases, including abuse lawsuits against the Catholic Church. During Monday’s argument, some justices appeared more sympathetic to the government’s position. “This would defy what we do in class-action contexts. It would raise serious due process concerns and Seventh Amendment concerns, as the government highlighted; you’re normally entitled to a jury,” Justice Neil Gorsuch told attorney Gregory Garre, who represents Purdue Pharma. Other justices appeared fixed on the notion that the Sacklers were attempting to reap the benefits of bankruptcy without surrendering to the process themselves. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson noted allegations that some Sackler family members took assets offshore. “Even if there was a world in which categorically we wouldn’t say you can never do these kinds of releases, why wouldn’t this be a clear situation in which we would not allow it,” probed Jackson. “Why should they get the discharge that usually goes to a bankrupt person once they’ve put all their assets on the table, without having put all their assets on the table,” asked Justice Elena Kagan. “The point of this proceeding is not to make the life as difficult as possible for the Sacklers,” responded Garre. “It’s to maximize recovery and fairly and equitably distribute it to the victims.”Currently, the bankruptcy deal is on hold under an emergency ruling from the Supreme Court. The pause will remain in place until the justices’ final decision.The settlement’s consummation would mark a major milestone in the litigation over the nation’s opioid epidemic. Nearly 645,000 people died from overdoses involving an opioid between 1999 and 2021, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Number of IPO Listings Has Plunged in the U.S. While Some Investors Are Nursing Losses of 70 to 95 Percent --By Pam and Russ Martens: December 4, 2023 ~Through last Friday, there have been 148 IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) in the U.S. this year, the lowest number in the past six years. But what is more striking about the U.S. IPO market is how poorly these IPOs have performed for investors.Through December 1, 87 of the 148 IPOs (59 percent) that made their debut this year have a share price that is negative from the offering price. Even more stunning, 34 of the IPOs have losses of 70 percent to more than 90 percent from their offering price. Another 19 IPOs have losses of 50 percent to 69 percent of their offering price.This is not a good look for what stock exchanges in the U.S. are willing to list and offer up as publicly-traded companies to mom and pop investors, public pension funds and the like.The worst of the IPO performers this year is Surf Air Mobility Inc., a venture capital-backed regional air carrier with stated aspirations of developing electric planes. Its IPO price was $20 a share; it began trading at $5 on July 27; its shares closed last Friday at 82 cents.MIT Technology Review reports the following about the current prospects for electric planes:“Today’s batteries don’t have the energy density necessary to power anything but the lightest planes. And even for those, the trip will be about as far as a long bike ride.”The prospects for the future of Surf Air Mobility Inc. were so dim that the registration statement filed with the SEC carried a going concern warning, writing as follows:“The Company’s ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon its ability to raise additional capital and to maintain revenues and generate profit from operations. The Company has funded its operations and capital needs primarily through the net proceeds received from the issuance of various debt instruments, convertible securities and preferred and common share financing arrangements. A significant amount of funding to date has been provided by entities affiliated with an officer and co-founder of the Company. The Company is evaluating strategies to obtain the additional funding for future operations. These strategies may include, but are not limited to, obtaining additional equity financing, issuing additional debt or entering into other financing arrangements, restructuring of operations to grow revenues and decrease expenses. There can be no assurance that the Company will be successful in achieving its strategic plans or that new financing will be available to the Company in a timely manner or on acceptable terms, if at all.”So, you are asking the public to invest in the future of your business while you are warning about its potential death.Even much hyped IPOs have fizzled this year. Instacart (corporate parent name Maplebear Inc.) went public on Tuesday, September 19, at $30 a share. It is the online grocery shopping and home delivery service. While it closed its first day of trading at $33.70, it has swooned ever since, closing last Friday at $25.37, a 15 percent decline from its offering price. The company had a valuation of $39 billion in 2021. By the time it went public this year that valuation had collapsed to $9 billion.There may be more bad news ahead in December for some IPO investors. Tabb Forum reports that a number of companies that IPO’d this year are hitting their lockup expirations this month. The expiration of a typical six-month lockup means that insiders could dump their stock, putting more downward pressure on some IPO share prices.
With McHenry to exit House, financial panel will lose its dealmaker — Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry said Wednesday that he won't seek reelection to the House next year, raising questions about leadership succession and bipartisan cooperation on the committee as well as the potential impact on digital-assets policy. Rep. McHenry, a North Carolinian who initially came to Congress as a partisan firebrand, has mellowed in his nearly two decades on the Hill into a lawmaker known for his dealmaking prowess and ability to work across the aisle. He briefly led the House earlier this year when Republicans couldn't coalesce around a speaker candidate, calming markets and Wall Street executives who trusted McHenry to be a stable presence in an otherwise hyperpoliticized environment. "Even if you disagree with him, and goodness knows Democrats disagreed with him, there is no one who would argue that Chair McHenry has been anything but a steady and thoughtful member of Congress," s McHenry's pending departure, given his reputation as the "adult in the room" during the GOP's leadership crisis, immediately raised questions about the political dynamics in the House. He moved to quell fears about the chamber's future in a statement.
Is American Banking Safe? You Might Not Like The Answer from Two Fed Veterans -As anybody who lived through the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 knows, banking can be hazardous. Failures can hit millions hard, wiping out life savings, tossing the economy into chaos, and messing with investments, spending, and overall growth.Capital requirements are supposed to be crucial buffers shielding banks from catastrophes, rooted in centuries of financial evolution from Alexander Hamilton up through the New Deal regulatory regime and modern international agreements like the Basel Accords. But current regulators’ efforts to raise the capital ratios of big banks to safe levels are strongly opposed by most financiers, sparking debates on finding a balance between stability and financial risk, all amid intense political pressures.In the following discussion with the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Walker Todd and Bill Bergman, who’ve been in the Federal Reserve trenches, give an insider’s perspective on the history of banking instability, the fallout of regulatory choices, and the ongoing battle to shield the public from financial risk — because it’s all of us who bear the brunt when things go awry.
Bank CEOs bring Basel III battle to Congress — A panel of eight major bank CEOs used their testimony before the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday to criticize the proposed Basel III endgame capital rules, furthering the industry's intense campaign against the proposal. Lawmakers largely eschewed the political flogging that normally accompanies the appearance of Wall Street executives, instead looking for endorsements of their various pieces of legislation. Even Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., used her time to get the executives to agree with her that crypto companies should have the same anti-money-laundering requirements as banks. The bank CEOs, meanwhile, used their time to reiterate points that have been made by banking interests in Washington about the Basel III endgame proposal. The large CEO panel included Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Charlie Scharf of Wells Fargo, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, Jane Fraser of Citigroup, David Solomon of Goldman Sachs, James Gorman of Morgan Stanley, Ronald O'Hanley of State Street and Robin Vince of BNY Mellon. "Despite zero evidence that large U.S. banks are undercapitalized today, the proposed Basel III endgame rule, if enacted, would unjustifiably and unnecessarily increase capital requirements by 20-25% for the largest banks," Dimon said. "Banks would be limited in their ability to deploy capital in the times we're most needed, and the rule will have a harmful ripple effect on the economy, markets, businesses of all sizes and American households." The CEOs particularly complained that they haven't been looped into the process to give their feedback, and that the Basel proposal hasn't been properly studied. "I fear that 'propose now, study later' has become a troublesome new theme in Washington," Dimon said. The executives repeatedly brought up their role in mitigating the regional bank crisis earlier this year, arguing that they served as a source of strength for the financial system during that time. Because of that — and because Silicon Valley Bank's failure sparked runs on other large regional institutions — more stringent capital requirements aren't necessary, they said.
Wall Street CEOs Want the Line Between a Federally-Insured Bank and a Wall Street Trading Casino Erased; Regulators Want Higher Capital to Prevent That - By Pam and Russ Martens -- David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, let it slip out at yesterday’s Senate Banking hearing what is really driving the mega banks’ backlash against federal banking regulators’ proposal to raise capital requirements at banks with more than $100 billion in total consolidated assets. (Community banks would not be impacted by the proposed capital increases.)Solomon responded as follows to a question on the proposed new rules, attempting to justify how the trillions of dollars in derivatives his firm is holding inside its federally insured and taxpayer-backstopped commercial bank, Goldman Sachs Bank USA, is helping the country and that raising capital requirements on those trades would raise costs to consumers:“You can look at airlines hedging jet fuel; you wanna look at other derivatives, which obviously gets passed on to consumers; you can look at gas being hedged in utilities, which obviously gets passed on to consumers; and then you can look at other transactions. There’s a provision under the rule called SFT, which allows institutions like ours to borrow securities from pension plans and give them cash. That increases their returns and allows them to use their assets to increase their returns. Capital would increase by eight times for those types of transactions, which would make them unattractive and would therefore diminish the ability of pensions to access that tool to increase their returns.”This one paragraph above goes to the heart of why these mega banks on Wall Street have launched one of the fiercest lobbying campaigns in their history – including attack ads on television – to stop these rules from taking effect. It’s all about derivatives, short sales, and dangerous trading activities taking place – not in the firm’s broker dealer or investment bank but in the federally-insured commercial banks they are allowed to own, which are backstopped by the American taxpayer.Goldman’s Solomon makes it sound like his firm’s only involvement in derivatives is to help its business customers hedge legitimate risks, but Goldman itself is taking huge risks in derivatives for its own trading book and housing those derivatives in its federally-insured bank. As for Goldman paying pensions cash to borrow their securities, those securities are highly likely being used to loan out those securities to Goldman’s hedge fund clients in order for them to engage in shorting the market.For the derivatives condition Goldman Sachs was in at the time of the 2008 financial crash, the chart below from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission puts to rest the idea that bank examiners or internal risk managers are capable of overseeing the safety and soundness of casino banks.Consider what those bank examiners and internal risk officers have allowed to build up at the federally-insured Goldman Sachs Bank USA today. According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks, as of June 30 of this year, Goldman Sachs Bank USA has $517 billion in assets and $57 trillion in notional (face amount) derivatives, with risk-based capital of just $55.9 billion. (See Table 16 in the OCC report.)Per the chart below from the OCC, just four banks held $193 trillion in derivatives as of June 30, or 87 percent of the total derivatives held by all commercial banks in the United States. If there is any better definition of insane concentration of risk, we don’t know what it is.
Operational risk emerging as linchpin of Basel capital debate -What had for months been a broad debate around the wisdom and process of the Basel III capital proposal has narrowed in recent weeks to center on a particular aspect of that proposal: capital retention for banks' operational risks. The so-called Basel III endgame package put forth by the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency would also adjust capital requirements banks would face for risk exposures related to credit, trading and derivative contracts — also referred to as credit valuation adjustment risk. But the operational component has drawn the most ire from banks."It makes no sense. I mean, that's the bottom line," said James Gorman, chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley, while testifying in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.. "I've been at this a long time, I was on the New York Fed board for years, I've seen a lot of rules, some that make sense and it's a question of how far you turn the dial. This doesn't make sense." Gorman went on to say the proposal would "punish" banks for creating "fee-based businesses," echoing criticisms put forth by banks, their lobbying groups and even regulatory officials in recent weeks. Last week, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller questioned the need for a standalone operational risk charge, arguing that the capital set aside to deal with market and credit risks could be tapped for idiosyncratic events — such as litigation, cyber attacks or fraud. "Those are things that don't typically occur at the same time as a financial meltdown due to a macroeconomic shock. So, they're not correlated with market risk, trading risk, all the other things that might bring a bank down," Waller said during an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute. "I just argue that because it's not really a threat to this, we don't need a separate bucket for this. You can use operational risk, paid for out of your standard capital bucket." Currently, most banks are not subject to a set standard for maintaining capital to address operational risks. Only banks with at least $700 billion of total assets or $75 billion of cross-border activity face operational capital requirements under the Fed's advanced approaches protocol, which calls for banks to use internal models to assess their operational risks and corresponding capital needs.
Canada keeps bank capital requirements steady as economy weakens - Canada's banking regulator chose not to boost capital requirements on the country's largest lenders, signaling that officials believe banks' balance sheets are strong enough to withstand economic turbulence. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions left the domestic stability buffer at 3.5%. It had increased it in June and last December. The buffer is like a rainy-day fund designed to protect the system by ensuring that banks can absorb losses in a weak economy or shock to the financial system. The regulator has been raising it in stages since 2021, after lowering it in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic to free up capital for lending. Two key risks for Canadian banks are consumers' high level of debt and weakness in the commercial real estate industry, Peter Routledge, the banking superintendent, said during a news conference. "But we haven't seen very significant losses in either of those sectors," he said, and the risks haven't worsened in the six months since OSFI last raised the buffer. The decision means the six largest Canadian banks will enter 2024 with the requirement to hold Common Equity Tier 1 capital of at least 11.5% of risk-weighted assets. All six are comfortably above that level, with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Bank of Montreal closest to the minimum.
Top Republicans call on Gruenberg to resign amid FDIC scandal - — Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, has called on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg to resign, the latest in a series of escalating pressure from lawmakers following reports of a toxic culture at the regulator. The scandal was sparked by a Wall Street Journal report last month, which detailed sexual harassment, discrimination and otherwise problematic behavior by FDIC employees spanning a decade or more. A letter, signed by Scott and other committee Republicans, including Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota and Steve Daines of Montana, cited reports of Gruenberg's own behavior and "a reputation for bullying and for having an explosive temper." During congressional hearings, Gruenberg has said that harassment and toxic behavior is "completely unacceptable," and the FDIC will investigate the claims. The agency has moved ahead with that promise, establishing a special board committe co-chaired by director Jonathan McKernan and acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu to oversee the probe. But the letter's signatories said those moves were insufficient to resolve the concerns outlined by the report. "The culture of an organization is set from the top," the Republican lawmakers said in Thursday's letter. "As such, we have significant concerns with your ability to continue leading the FDIC as it seeks to clean up its public image and provide much-needed changes to its workplace culture to return the FDIC to working order. Given the importance of the role of the FDIC in maintaining stability and public confidence in the nation's financial system, we call on you to step down as Chairman and Board Member and allow someone with more credibility to address the hostile workplace culture at the FDIC to which you have contributed." Scott is now the highest ranking lawmaker to call for Gruenberg's resignation. While others have criticized the culture of the FDIC — including Gruenberg himself — most leading lawmakers have fallen short of asking for a resignation. The lawmakers also requested Gruenberg to confirm or deny the allegations laid out against him regarding his behavior in the news report, and that the agency provide records of complaints related to the working environment at the FDIC, and regarding Gruenberg's role in it.
Atlantic Union settles overdraft case with CFPB for $6M --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ordered Atlantic Union Bank to pay a $1.2 million fine and refund $5 million to thousands of consumers who the agency said were misled into enrolling in overdraft service without proper disclosures. The CFPB on Thursday said that $20.6 billion-asset Atlantic Union in Richmond, Virginia, failed to properly disclose its overdraft practices to roughly 8,500 consumers who enrolled by phone or in branches from 2017 to 2020. Atlantic Union, a subsidiary of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp., disclosed in a February 2022 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that the CFPB was considering taking action regarding its overdraft practices. Atlantic Union said it chose to settle with the CFPB without admitting or denying wrongdoing.
Banks warned about risks in offering buy now, pay later products --A top U.S. financial regulator is warning banks about potential risks in offering buy/now, pay/later products that have surged in popularity with consumers. Traditional lenders are joining firms like Affirm Holdings Inc., Klarna Bank AB and Afterpay Ltd. in giving customers shorter-term borrowing options. Despite their surging popularity, the arrangements can pose major challenges for big banks, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC, part of the Treasury Department, said Tuesday the products present credit, compliance and reputation challenges for the banks. Lenders should ensure that marketing materials are clear, the regulator said. The warnings follow similar assessments by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and possible new government regulations. Meanwhile, buy-now, pay-later offerings helped fuel a record start to the holiday shopping season in the US, according to Adobe Inc. "We think this is well-timed to say, 'Hey, banks, if you get into this, this is how to do it responsibly,'" Michael Hsu, the acting comptroller of the currency, said in an interview. Hsu added that if consumers aren't careful with the products they can get overextended and that can lead to loan delinquencies. He said that even if the loans don't have any finance charges, they can spur charges like overdrafts or late fees when they're linked to credit or debit cards. "That's where the risks are," Hsu said.
Congressional actions necessary to stop imitation banks: Report — A new report by the Roosevelt Institute notes a comprehensive coordinated regulatory approach could currently mitigate some risks posed by imitation banks, but that ultimately Congress needs to make three targeted changes to effectively protect consumers and the financial system.The report, obtained by American Banker and authored by former FDIC attorney Todd Phillips, says Imitation banks — a category of online shadow banks — mimic traditional depository institutions, offering high returns on what appear to be deposit accounts while circumventing banking laws and regulation. Phillips says this can mislead consumers, who may mistake them for secure, regulated institutions due to the similarity of their digital interfaces to banking apps, potentially putting their funds at risk. "[Imitation banks] make specious promises of high returns to gain ground with consumers who may have been historically locked out of more traditional wealth-building opportunities, [and] they're doing so without the necessary government oversight and accountability mechanisms," he writes. "Regulators and Congress must act to address these harms."The paper identifies four examples of imitation banks — including Compound Real Estate,Tellus, Zera Financial, and Confetti — each employ different strategies, but share the trait of misrepresenting themselves and imitating traditional banking services.Phillips notes that while current law says demand notes sold to the public must be registered as securities with the SEC, only Compound — formerly Compound Banc — is registered with the SEC. He says the SEC has also alleged that such deposit-like accounts are notes requiring disclosure, but these imitation banks have nonetheless escaped regulatory action."It is unclear how Tellus, Zera, and other imitation banks have thus far avoided registering and providing SEC-required disclosures," he wrote.And while bank regulators are well-equipped to address the risks of depository business models, he notes banking laws — specifically designed to mitigate run risks — are limited in that they only apply to chartered firms."Because imitation banks are none of these three and cannot be compelled to convert to a banking charter, they cannot be covered by federal banking laws — with one exception," the report says.That exception is Section 21 of the Banking Act of 1933, also known as the Glass-Steagall Act. Section 21 criminalizes the business of receiving deposits by firms not subject to bank examination. The problem with Section 21, according to Phillips, is it is ambiguous — it does not clearly define the term "deposit," leaving unresolved whether bonds and notes can be classified as deposits. Even if they could, Phillips says, enforcing the law would be difficult because criminal statutes have a "mens rea" or "guilty mind" requirement, which requires proof a criminal acted knowingly.
Rep. Maxine Waters asks PNC, Wells to put bank branches in her district – Rep. Maxine Waters held a town hall meeting on Saturday where she pointedly asked executives from City National Bank, PNC Financial Services and Wells Fargo & Co., if they would each open a branch in her district. She said she wanted to hold the banks accountable for promises made in recent merger agreements or consent orders. The town hall meeting at Inglewood High School got fiery at times as Waters pressed the three bank executives to answer questions from constituents in her 43rd congressional district in South Los Angeles. Waters, the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, said she invited all the top banks to attend but was turned down by Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and U.S. Bancorp. Next week, the Senate Banking Committee plans to hold an annual oversight hearing with executives from the nation's top banks. Waters said she was disappointed that Republicans in the House would not hold a similar hearing. Her town hall, she said, would try to fill in the gap. When Jeffrey Martinez, executive vice president and head of branch banking at PNC Bank, described how the Pittsburgh bank was upholding its pledge to invest an eye-popping $88 billion in local communities over four years as part of its 2020 acquisition of BBVA, Waters asked specifically if PNC was coming to her neighborhood. "When are you going to open up a branch in my district?" Waters said. "We have a problem with branch banking not being available to us in all of our communities in the way they should be. We call them banking deserts." Martinez responded: "That's a great question, it's an important one and one of the things we've slated even though we're new to California." "We would like to help you find a location," Waters said, to thunderous applause and laughter from the crowd of about 300. "I'm so looking forward to establishing" a branch here, she added.
Don’t Cry for the Lowest Paid Wall Street Mega Bank CEO Just Yet; He’s Moving Up Fast By Pam and Russ Martens: December 6, 2023 ~To stem some of the whining by the CEOs of the eight largest Wall Street mega banks at a Senate Banking hearing today (where they are expected to gripe about newly proposed higher capital requirements and whimper that it will hurt their ability to make loans to the little folks) the Banking Committee released the CEOs’ 2022 total compensation and its ratio to their bank’s median worker.Among the most embarrassing and obscene pay packages was the 2022 compensation to Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, which came in at $34.9 million. The ratio of Dimon’s pay to the pay of the median worker at JPMorgan Chase was 393 to 1, the highest among the eight CEOs at the hearing. (For more on the zombie Board at JPMorgan Chase that keeps rewarding Dimon for the bank’s serial criminal behavior, see our report: After JPMorgan Chase Admits to Its 4th and 5th Felony Charge, Its Board Gives a $50 Million Bonus to Its CEO, Jamie Dimon.)The lowest compensated CEO among the group was Robin Vince, President and CEO of Bank of New York Mellon. His total 2022 compensation was $11.2 million, which clocked in at 159 times the bank’s median worker’s compensation.You might want to save your tears for Vince. He’s been moving up the corporate ladder quite rapidly at BNY Mellon with his compensation moving just as rapidly. The proxy that the bank filed with the SEC this spring shows that Vince received total compensation in 2020 of $4.9 million, then leaped to $9.3 million in 2021 – an 89.80 percent increase in one year.And Vince’s previous background suggests strongly that he’ll be nudging his Board to move his compensation more in line with that of Dimon in the not so distant future.Vince joined BNY Mellon in October 2020 after 26 years at Goldman Sachs. When he left Goldman, he was serving as its Chief Risk Officer and was a member of the Management Committee. His previous roles at Goldman included Treasurer, Head of Operations, Head of Global Money Markets, COO of the EMEA region and CEO of Goldman Sachs International Bank, among others. He became a Managing Director at Goldman in 2002 and made partner in 2006.Vince won’t have to worry that he made a bad decision in moving from Goldman to BNY Mellon should there be a change in control. The proxy filed with the SEC also shares that if Vince is terminated by the bank as a result of a change in control, he’ll receive $12.17 million in a cash severance payment; $5.17 million in a pro-rated bonus; $59,914 in health and wellness benefits; for a total of $17.39 million just to walk out the fancy front door of this banking behemoth.
Congress grills financial regulators on tech oversight | American Banker - Members of a House Financial Services Subcommittee grilled financial regulators' technology unit heads on tech topics like artificial intelligence, crypto custody and central bank digital currencies during a Tuesday hearing. In their answers, leaders of these tech units stressed the importance of balancing innovation with risk management. Representatives from six federal agencies—the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, National Credit Union Administration and Securities and Exchange Commission—shared written statements about technology research and policy projects, though few new details were revealed. "We want to talk about how government agencies, while they're not at the forefront of innovation frequently, they definitely can stop innovation dead in its tracks," said Rep. French Hill, chairman of the Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion subcommittee, in opening remarks. "This hearing is the first time that the committee has called each of you to testify about your agency's work related to innovation, and, regrettably, when I looked at the Government Accountability Office recent report, maybe some of that progress is lacking." Patrick McHenry, a Republican from North Carolina and chairman of the full committee, said he's concerned that the agencies' tech offices aren't "operating as intended," and that regulation shouldn't be derived from enforcement. Rep. Stephen Lynch, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said there's a dichotomy between the financial services' "rule-based system" and the tech ethos of "move fast and break things." "We have this clash of cultures…that is playing out in the fintech world," Lynch said. "It's going to be a decision at some point of, 'How do we blend those two cultures in a way that protects consumers and depositors and investors, yet allows us to adopt all this innovation?'" Financial regulators began creating tech-focused offices or roles in the last several years, as artificial intelligence, crypto and other technology development picked up pace, but regulatory scrutiny of fintech and digital assets has increased over the last two years with the rise of interest rates and the spring banking crisis.
Republicans press for more information about ex-OCC fintech czar — Top Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee are pressing acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu about allegations that the agency's former fintech czar lied about his experience in banking and fintech, according to a letter obtained by American BankerEarlier this year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency hired Prashant Bhardwaj — who the agency claimed had "nearly 30 years of experience serving in a variety of roles across the financial sector" — to be its deputy comptroller and chief financial technology officer. His job was to oversee fintechs and the banking-as-a-service sector. At some point after April, the OCC scrubbed any mention of Bhardwaj from its website. Some false claims detailed by reports in The Information and Fintech Business Weekly were easily discoverable — the "30 years of experience" in the fintech industry would have meant that he started in the industry as a young teenager. Documents obtained from a Freedom of Information Act request first published by The Information also revealed several jobs Bhardwaj listed on his resume that, according to those institutions, he never held. Senior Republican lawmakers on the Financial Services Committee — including Reps. Andy Barr, R-Ky., chairman of the subcommittee on financial institutions and monetary policy; Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., chairman of the oversight subcommittee; and French Hill, R-Ark., chairman of the fintech panel — have asked Hsu to provide a briefing to lawmakers on the hire, and what work Bhardwaj was involved in during his time at the agency. The lawmakers made the requests in a letter sent Thursday. "There is risk that some of the recently proposed federal banking rules from the OCC were made with input from unqualified individuals, or individuals with complacency toward attending to detail and accuracy," the lawmakers said. The pressure from Republican lawmakers coincides with a heavy pushback from the banking industry on regulatory tightening, and the looming threat of legal challenges to banking agencies' rulemakings. The lawmakers reference regulators' rulemakings in the letter, and they suggest that Bhardwaj's hire could put them into question.
Crypto stocks surge as bitcoin hits fresh 2023 high - (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency-related stocks listed in the U.S. surged on Monday, looking to extend their strong November gains, as bitcoin topped $42,000 to hit a fresh high for the year. Shares of companies whose fortunes are tied to the cryptocurrency have rallied in recent weeks, spurred by optimism about potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. as well as traders betting on the imminent approval of U.S. stock market-traded bitcoin funds. Bitcoin climbed 4.1% to $41,649- its highest since April 2022. It had hit $42,162 earlier in the session. "The impact of an (ETF) approval is going to be big in terms of investment appetite because it's going to be more easily regulated, more attractive and easier to invest," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank. "What we have right now is a risk rally, and bitcoin is also benefiting big time from falling yields. There is also this positive bullish sentiment into next year because it is going to be the year of halving." Halving is a process designed to slow the release of bitcoin, and bitcoin prices have typically rallied following halvings.
Round Rock man steals $600K in cryptocurrency through SIM swapping scheme — A Round Rock man was sentenced to two years in prison for stealing $600,000 worth of cryptocurrency through a SIM card swapping scheme. According to court documents, investigators say 22-year-old Daniel Akira Mills stole the cryptocurrency from dozens of victims across the country. The incidents happened from August 2019 to February 2021, the U.S. Department of Justice said in a news release on Friday.Mills gained control of victims’ phones by linking their number to a new SIM card. That connection rerouted all calls and texts.Once Mills saw the victim's phone number, he would use it to get access to victims’ accounts.Among other things, scheme participants posted unauthorized messages on their victims’ social media accounts and posted private photographs stolen from the accounts of celebrities, the Justice Department said.“We now run much of our lives through smartphones,” said U.S. Attorney Jaime Esparza for the Western District of Texas. “From social media to managing our finances, they have become essential tools. This can be very helpful, but also comes with many risks. By ‘SIM swapping,’ or stealing the phone numbers of victims to assume their identities, Mills and his cohorts defrauded innocent members of society and caused great harm. My office will not hesitate to hold fraudsters like Mills accountable for their irresponsible destructive actions.”In addition to his prison sentence, Mills must pay $530,000 in restitution.
Woodbridge couple loses $1 million in cryptocurrency investment scam - A Woodbridge couple lost more than one million dollars in a cryptocurrency investment scam. Local and federal authorities are now investigating as there are dozens of victims across the country. It’s a complex scam that starts out with something simple: a text or message from a stranger. Amos Jiang from Woodbridge received a text in August. He says the person had the wrong number but wanted to learn more about what it’s like to move to the United States from China. A friendship formed, and then that friend told Amos about an investment opportunity in cryptocurrency. “I see the balance increase, so I think maybe it’s ok,” said Jiang. Jiang says the website looked legitimate. His son, Eric Jiang, helped his dad explain to Channel 3 how it worked. “The entire exchange was functional. There was an order book. He could see his trades. He could see everything happen on the exchange, so it seemed very legitimate,” said Eric Jiang. Amos Jiang says he made the investments because he wanted to help his son. “He wanted to pay for the wedding. He wanted to buy us a home. When he saw that this was apparently a legitimate opportunity for him to make enough money to pay off the whole home, that’s why he felt it was necessary to continue investing,” said Eric Jiang. In total, Amos Jiang invested more than one million dollars. It was their lifesavings, plus money from a line of credit on their house. “To see all of that just disappear, it breaks my heart,” said Eric Jiang. Amos Jiang realized it was a scam when he got a phone call from the Woodbridge Police Department on November 16th, 2023. The Woodbridge Police Department had been contacted by Detective Michelle Taylor with the Peachtree City Police Department all the way in Georgia. Detective Taylor had been investigating a similar case which led her to a list of around 2 dozen potential victims in 12 different states. She says there are potentially many more victims. “A lot of times the money is gone, and it’s a dead end from there,” said Taylor.
U.S. Prosecutors Call Huge Cryptocurrency Fraud Seizure a "Game Changer" -- In a "game-changer" move against online fraud, issuers of the cryptocurrency Tether have frozen $225 million worth of alleged fraud proceeds from hundreds of victims, the biggest ever seizure of the suspected profits of online scams, U.S. officials and experts told Newsweek.It is also the first time that such proceeds have been frozen inside standalone cryptocurrency wallets rather than in accounts on a crypto exchange. That matters because it is a blow to criminals who have embraced cryptocurrencies that lie beyond the control of national governments as a way to safely hide the proceeds of crimes such as online scams.Tether announced Nov. 20 it had blacklisted funds in 37 wallets linked to so-called "pig butchering" scams. The freeze means that Tether in those wallets cannot be moved or sold, according to Shawn Bradstreet, special agent in charge of the U.S. Secret Service San Fransisco Field Office."They turned it into a lump of coal," he told Newsweek about the move, which froze Tether tokens on the Ethereum blockchain, the vast computerized ledger that records transactions and makes cryptocurrency transactions instantaneous, irreversible and possible without a bank.Bradstreet said investigators were still working on tracing funds in the case."As you can imagine, it's not an easy trail. It's spider webbing all over the place. So it's going take some time to pull everything together," he said.Blockchain analyst firm Chainalysis confirmed the $225 million freeze in an email to Newsweek. Because the blacklisting happens on the public blockchain, it is visible to anyone with the technical skills to watch and interpret the data.Tether executives say that transparency, combined with a centralized architecture that enables them to reach Tether tokens anywhere they're held, amounts to a powerful tool to trace and recover fraud proceeds, which they're working with police from 19 countries to use."Tether aims to set a new standard for safety within the crypto space," said Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, in a statement. He added that the decision to voluntarily freeze the funds "underscores our dedication to fostering a secure environment."
Dimon says he would shut down crypto if he had government role --Jamie Dimon told U.S. lawmakers he would shutter the cryptocurrency industry if he had their power. "If I was the government, I'd close it down," the chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. said at the Senate Banking Committee's annual Wall Street oversight hearing Wednesday. The remarks add to Dimon's long history of bashing digital currencies, which he has previously called "Ponzi schemes" and a "fraud." His latest comments follow a series of hacks and scandals in the crypto industry, which has been under increased scrutiny from US regulators and lawmakers since the unwinding of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried's cryptocurrency platform. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, used the hearing to team up with Republicans and banking leaders to take aim at the crypto industry. "Today's terrorists have a new way to get around the Bank Secrecy Act: cryptocurrency," Warren said. Dimon and other industry chiefs, including Bank of America's Brian Moynihan, said they have safeguards in place to prevent terrorists and other illegal actors from using their institutions. Warren contrasted that with the crypto market, and said anti-money-laundering rules that banks follow should be extended to digital assets. All of the CEOs said they agreed. "I'm not usually holding hands with the CEOs of multibillion-dollar banks, but this is a matter of national security," said Warren, who has previously raised concerns about the need for regulation and about links that major lenders have with the crypto industry.
How Europe’s crypto queen was brought down by cash – She was the European Parliament’s loudest cheerleader for cryptocurrencies. But Eva Kaili’s glittering career as the Parliament’s vice president collapsed when police raided her home a year ago and found €150,000 euros in old-fashioned cash. Kaili and her partner Francesco Giorgi were among the Brussels high fliers handed preliminary charges in one of the biggest corruption investigations ever to hit the EU institutions. Now, hundreds of leaked documents from the inquiry — seen by POLITICO — reveal eye-opening new details about the dramatic investigation, based on secret surveillance, confessions and evidence snatched during police raids. The long-running probe into the case is yet to conclude but the files reviewed by POLITICO suggest payments totaling around €4 million may have been agreed over the course of an alleged four-year conspiracy. The chaotic nature of the competing accounts given by different suspects and suggested in contradictory documents make it impossible to be sure of a final total. One feature above all stands out in The Qatargate Files: the large amounts of cash involved and the extraordinary stories suspects told investigators about how it was hidden and where it ended up. There was the cash lost on a train, the money thrown in a dumpster, banknotes stuffed into brown paper bags, bundles stashed in suitcases, and payments made in parking lots. On December 9 last year, when their world was closing in around them, Kaili sought her father’s help. A little later, he was caught with a suitcase full of cash in a luxury Brussels hotel. Before her arrest, Kaili was the vice president of the European Parliament, and had a particular interest incryptocurrency. She has always denied any involvement in the corruption scandal and is challenging the legal caseagainst her.Her partner Giorgi has acknowledged his own part in the schemes, while his former boss, the ex-member of the European Parliament Pier Antonio Panzeri, has confessed to his role in a plea deal with prosecutors. Last December, in the initial round of police raids, officers seized more than €600,000 in banknotes from Panzeri’s apartment in the Schaerbeek district of Brussels. Speaking shortly after his arrest, Panzeri told detectives the money came from a multi-year deal he made with Qatar under which he agreed to do “consultancy” work for the Gulf state. He would have preferred to receive this via transparent channels, and paid tax on it, but the Qataris insisted it should remain hush-hush, he claimed. Qatar handed over the money on two occasions, in late 2019 and spring 2022, he said, and the latter delivery came in a paper shopping bag, he told the police. “I suppose that it arrived in a diplomatic briefcase,” he said vaguely, according to documents seen by POLITICO. “I generally don’t spend a lot,” said Panzeri, who had €380,000 stored in plastic bags under his bed, as Belgian spies discovered when they secretly visited his apartment months before his arrest. The spies also found €320,000 in his safe. Panzeri said he wasn’t a big-spender, except when it came to holidays. He liked to go on vacation three times a year and spend between €20,000 and €25,000 each time, though less at Easter, he told police, adding that he went to Miami and Canada earlier in 2022. After Panzeri began collaborating with Qatar, so much cash was swirling around that he even ended up throwing some of it into a dumpster, according to an account he gave to police in February.
Treasury overhauls community development financial institution certification process — The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Community Development Financial Institutions Fund released a revised CDFI certification application on Thursday after a six-year process of public input and refinement. Final revisions include empowering applying firms to request changes to specific certification-related standards, integrating legal entity verification into the application process and updating various criteria related to loan products, geographic targeting and targeted populations. "The revised CDFI certification application strikes a balance between providing clear standards for responsible lending and flexibility to allow innovation in the community finance sector," said Treasury's Deputy Assistant Secretary for Community and Economic Development Noel Andrés Poyo. "Public comments from CDFI practitioners were essential in this process and their feedback is reflected in this new application." The Treasury Department's new standards introduced several key updates aimed at enhancing flexibility and transparency in the CDFI certification process. The updated application now empowers applying firms to request changes to specific lists and standards related to certification, including financial products, services, targeted populations, target market assessment methodologies and responsible financing standards. The Treasury has emphasized that upon approval of such requests, the CDFI Fund will promptly publish updated guidance, ensuring all applicants are subject to such standards. In contrast to the draft updates, the revised application eliminates "loan purpose tables" — in which applicants enter information about their loan products — and collects a limited amount of data through targeted questions in the revised application and the transaction level report. The Treasury has also integrated the government legal entity database SAM.gov into the updated awards management information system, the platform through which applicants submit the revised application. This integration is designed to alleviate the burden on candidates by simplifying the verification of their organization's legal entity status, particularly for those already registered in the SAM.gov system. In the primary mission section of the final application, the previous requirement for entities to submit a strategic plan has been replaced with the option for applicants to provide a board- or owner-approved narrative, focusing on community development outcomes resulting from financing activities. The responsible financing standards section of the updated application now explicitly outlines practices inconsistent with community development, those necessitating explanation and considerations related to specific products and services in mortgage, consumer and small-business lending.
Assumable mortgages are having a moment. Will it last? Higher interest rates and rising home prices have breathed new life into an often overlooked option for housing finance: Assumption. Mortgage assumptions have been on the rise this year. More of these transactions — whereby the buyer of a home takes on the existing mortgage, interest rate included, of the departing seller — closed during the first nine months of 2023 than in any full calendar year since the subprime mortgage crisis, if not longer, according to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.For banks and other lenders, this uptick has the potential to open up opportunities in the form of supplemental mortgages and other activities, a welcome change in an otherwise stagnant real estate sector. At least one startup has launched this year with a business model built around assumable mortgages.But it may not be as simple as that. Mortgage assumption introduces new costs and complexities for lenders and servicers — including regulatory hurdles — that could make it difficult for mortgage assumptions to reach meaningful scale."In theory, the concept sounds awesome. It makes my house considerably more desirable and attractive. I've even seen real estate agents marketing that a house has a [Federal Housing Administration] loan that may be assumed," said Matt Van Fossen, CEO of the Fairfield, N.J.-based independent mortgage bank Absolute Home Mortgage Corp. "But assumptions are few and far between. When you look at the greater share of the market, it's not even prevalent."Assumability is not offered in most conventional mortgages, but it is a feature in loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs. These two types of mortgages — which are originated by banks, credit unions and other lending institutions, and then insured by government agencies — typically account for about a quarter of annual home sales. Through the first three quarters of 2023, a little more than 3,800 FHA mortgages have been assumed. In the context of the broader housing market — which is on pace for just under 3.8 million sales this year, according to the National Association of Realtors' latest data — the assumption market is tiny. Even so, the pace of assumptions is up considerably. Despite overall home sales tumbling from nearly 7 million in 2021 and just over 5 million in 2022, the volume of assumed mortgages has been trending upward. Assumptions are already up more than 67% from last year and more than 100% from 2021.
ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: IICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" A brief excerpt: And on Florida inventory: Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months• In fact, six of the nine markets seeing the strongest inventory growth over the past three months – Palm Bay (+22pp), Lakeland (+21pp), Tampa (+19pp), Cape Coral (+18pp), North Port (+16pp) and Orlando (+14pp) – are located in the Sunshine State
• Inventory in Lakeland is now 15% above 2017-2019 averages, surpassing Austin for the largest surplus of homes for sale compared to prepandemic levels
• While Miami has also shown inventory improvements it continues to have the deepest inventory deficit in the state with 42% fewer homes for sale compared to 2017-2019 same-month averages, in line with the national average
• Florida will be worth watching in coming months to determine if rising inventory levels lead to softening prices
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 14 percent from the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 35 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to 7.17 percent – the lowest level since August 2023. Slower inflation and financial markets anticipating the potential end of the Fed’s hiking cycle are both behind the recent decline in rates,” “Refinance applications saw the strongest week in two months and increased on a year-over-year basis for the second consecutive week for the first time since late 2021. The overall level of refinance applications is still very low, but recent increases could signal that 2023 was the low point in this cycle for refinance activity, consistent with our originations forecast. Purchase applications remained 17 percent lower than a year ago, held back by low inventory and still-challenging affordability conditions.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.17 percent from 7.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 17% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity had increased for four consecutive weeks but declined slightly this week.The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 4.7% Year-over-year in October --Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: US Home Price Growth Continues Slow But Steady Increase in October, CoreLogic Reports • U.S. single-family home prices increased by 4.7% year over year in September, the 141st straight month of annual appreciation.
• CoreLogic projects that annual home price growth will relax to 2.9% by October 2024.
• Northeastern states again led the country for annual appreciation in October, while four Western states saw slight losses.
U.S. single-family home price growth continued to increase modestly in October, posting a 4.7% year over-year increase. On a regional level, the Northeast again showed the biggest price rebound. The top five states with the highest annual appreciation in October are in that area of the country, with growth ranging from 10.3% in Connecticut to 9.3% in Maine and New Hampshire. The Northeast could be enjoying renewed home price gains in part due to a largely hybrid American workforce, in which employees need to be relatively close to major urban areas to allow for commutes to the office a few times per week.
“Home price growth maintained its upward momentum in October, which continues to reflect gains from the strong spring season and contrasts with last year's home price declines,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “But even with high mortgage rates, October's price gains line up with historical trends and speak to the strength of some potential buyers’ purchasing power, as they continue to outnumber available homes for sale. Metros that are seeing relatively stronger price gains are those with higher job growth, as well as those with an influx of higher-income, in-migrating households.”
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO --- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: In 2021, I pointed out that with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, we would see an increase in REOs in late 2022 and into 2023. And there was a slight increase.However, I argued this would NOT lead to a surge in foreclosures and significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) since lending has been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes....Here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q2 2023 (Q3 2023 data will be released in a few weeks).This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.9% of loans are under 3%, 60.3% are under 4%, and 79.9% are under 5%. With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
Housing December 4th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.8% Week-over-week, Up 1.0% Year-over-year -Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.8% week-over-week and is now up 1.0% year-over-year. Inventory will decrease seasonally for next several weeks (for the Holidays).
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of December 1st, inventory was at 556 thousand (7-day average), compared to 566 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 13.2%.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 1.0% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 0.2%), and down 34.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 35.1%). Inventory is now solidly above the same week in 2020 levels (dark blue line).Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Asking Rents Down 1.1% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Down 1.1% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through October 2023, except CoreLogic is through September and Apartment List is through November 2023.The CoreLogic measure is up 2.6% YoY in September, down from 2.9% in August, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.The Zillow measure is up 3.2% YoY in October, mostly unchanged from 3.2% YoY in September, and down from a peak of 16.1% YoY in March 2022.The ApartmentList measure is down 1.1% YoY as of November, up from -1.2% in October, and down from a peak of 18.2% YoY November 2021....OER and CPI shelter will decline further in the CPI release next week.
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 -Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3- Excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. Note: Very few homeowners have negative equity now - unlike during the housing bubble. Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.
In Q3 2023, mortgage debt increased $85 billion, down from $92 billion in Q2, and down from the cycle peak of $467 billion in Q2 2021. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt. However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $1.3 Trillion in Q3 -- The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2023 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $151.0 trillion during the third quarter of 2023. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $1.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.5 trillion....Household debt increased 2.5 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2023. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent.The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. Net worth decreased $1.3 trillion in Q3 from an all-time high in Q2. As a percent of GDP, net worth decreased in Q3, and is below the peak in 2021.This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.In Q3 2023, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 74.2% - up from 73.1% in Q2, 2023. This is close to the highest percent equity since the 1960s.Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $85 billion in Q3.Mortgage debt is up $2.23 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 46.8% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q3 - but is below the peak in Q3 2022 - but is well above the average of the last 30 years.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 November As expected due to the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. hotel performance fell from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 November. ...
19-25 November 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):
• Occupancy: 49.4% (-1.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$138.29 (+0.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$68.32 (-0.6%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will decline seasonally until early 2024
Consumer spending reaches record high in October: report Consumer spending in the U.S. reached a record high in October, according to a recent analysis of federal data by the personal finance site WalletHub. Americans spent $1.57 trillion in October, up $4.04 billion from the month before, WalletHub’s consumer spending report found. This represents the highest spending total for a single month since 2010, according to the report, which is based on inflation-adjusted data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. “Despite monthly totals setting records, recent spending does not seem to be unusually reckless, considering that metrics such as the ratio between spending and income are in line with historical averages,” WalletHub editor John Kiernan said in a statement. Consumers spent just over 81 percent of their monthly income in October, up from the pandemic’s record lows but in line with pre-pandemic spending, according to the report released on Thursday. Americans’ propensity to consume, or how much they spend for each additional dollar earned, also remains below the historical average, the report noted. “The overall takeaway is that even though consumers are spending more than ever, a lot can be chalked up to high inflation, low unemployment and an economy that’s stronger than you might think,” Kiernan added. After reaching a 40-year high of 9.1 percent last summer, inflation has steadily cooled, falling to 3.2 percent this October. Easing inflation has sparked optimism that the Federal Reserve, which has repeatedly raised interest rates in an effort to slow the economy and tame inflation, may be nearing an end to its rate hikes. While inflation remains above the Fed’s 2-percent target and officials have repeatedly warned that the central bank could still hike rates further, it has held interest rates steady at a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent at its last two consecutive meetings.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased 2.1% in November; Down 5.8% Year-over-year - From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in November Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.1% in November from October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 205.0, down 5.8% from a year ago. “While November’s decline was only slightly less than October’s, the move lower was on our radar, given the typical seasonal downward trend that paused in August and September,” “Prices still have a chance of rising slightly in December, though we’re not predicting an odd spike or trough. Rather, we’re expecting a measured movement through the end of the month and the year, which should get us close to the January forecast for a 4% year-over-year decline by December 2023. We’ll share our 2024 forecast during our January 8 call, but current views suggest less of a roller coaster in the new year.”The seasonal adjustment reduced the November decrease. The non-adjusted price in November declined by 2.9% compared to October, moving the unadjusted average price down 7.5% year over year.This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in November (seasonally adjusted) and were down 5.8% year-over-year (YoY).
Subprime Comes Home to Roost for Specialized Auto Dealers, Lenders & Investors: Car-Mart Was Next to Confess by Wolf Richter - Subprime is re-getting into trouble, after having somewhat gotten out of trouble during the free-money pandemic, when folks used some of the free money to catch up with past-dues.In the auto industry, subprime is largely confined to older used vehicles. Less than 5% of new vehicle sales are financed with loans or leases to subprime-rated customers (more in a moment). The sweet-spot is 8-to-12-year-old vehicles, only a corner of the used vehicle business. But in that corner, several subprime-specialized dealer-chains – owned by PE firms – have already filed for bankruptcy this year, and we covered a couple of them here. Others are struggling.Yesterday, it was the turn of America’s Car-Mart – a publicly traded subprime-specialized used-vehicle dealer chain – to confess in its quarterly earnings, upon which its shares [CRMT] tanked by a combined 21% yesterday and today. They’re down by 61% from the free-money peak in August 2021. What felled the shares yesterday and today was the disclosure of a massive jump in charge-offs and loan losses (chart via YCharts):Car-Mart has 154 stores in smaller cities in the South-Central US. It sold over 15,000 used vehicles in the quarter and generated $362 million in revenues, including $59 million from interest income from those high-interest rate loans that its subprime customers use to fund their purchases of the overpriced vehicles.Car-Mart is a good example. But they all work on a similar principle. Subprime-rated customers are the motherlode of profits for subprime-specialized auto dealers because these customers have few other choices left; they tried other dealers and got turned down because their credit is bad, and so they find a dealer that will provide the loan, and the rest doesn’t matter.These specialized dealers make huge amounts of profits on each sale in several ways, well, until they don’t:
- Selling the vehicle at a ridiculous price and profit margin
- Charging dizzying interest rates on the loans
- Selling insurance and warranties, usually provided by their own affiliates.
- Charging late fees
- Servicing the loan after it has been securitized and sold to investors.
Huge gross profits per unit sold. Car-Mart reported an average gross profit per vehicle sold of $6,835 – on vehicles with an average selling price of $19,035. So that’s a gross profit per unit of around 35%.Dizzying interest rates. For the auto industry overall, data from Experian shows how high those interest rates were for “subprime” auto loans (FICO score of 501-600), and “deep-subprime” loans (300-500). The table compares Q3 2023 and Q3 2022. Note the increases in rates:
AAR: November Carloads Down Slightly YoY; Intermodal Up -From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. In the first 11 months of 2023, total carloads were 10.82 million, up 0.2% (21,700 carloads) over last year and up 0.5% (53,682 carloads) over 2021. ... In 2023 through November, intermodal originations totaled 11.68 million, down 6.0% (748,046 units) from 2022 and down 10.6% (1.39 million units) from 2021. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2023:Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads fell 0.01%, or 102 carloads, in November 2023 from the equivalent period in 2022. It was the fifth year-over-year decline for total carloads in the past six months, but most of those declines have been very small in percentage terms. Total carloads averaged 225,715 per week in November 2023, the fourth lowest of the 11 months so far this year. The Thanksgiving holiday typically holds down rail volumes in November.The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):U.S. intermodal volume was up 5.0% in November 2023, its third straight year-over-year gain after 18 straight declines and the biggest year-over-year percentage gain for intermodal in 29 months. U.S. railroads averaged 255,981 originated containers and trailers per week in November 2023. That’s the fourth highest average intermodal volume for November on record (2017, 2018, and 2020 were higher).
Trade Deficit increased to $64.3 Billion in October –=- The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $64.3 billion in October, up $3.1 billion from $61.2 billion in September, revised October exports were $258.8 billion, $2.6 billion less than September exports. October imports were $323.0 billion, $0.5 billion more than September imports. Exports decreased and imports increased in October. Exports are up 1% year-over-year; imports are down 3% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - and imports had been decreasing and exports moving sideways recently.The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.The trade deficit with China decreased to $25.5 billion from $28.8 billion a year ago.
The Eye-popping Factory Construction Boom in the US - By Wolf Richter - In October, $18.5 billion were plowed into construction of manufacturing plants in the US ($246 billion annualized), up by 73% from a year ago, by 136% from two years ago, and by 166% from October 2019. The relentless pace of the month-to-month increases is what’s amazing – from $12.5 billion spent in January to $18.5 billion in October.The construction boom started in early to mid-2021, and since then, spending has tripled. About a year later, in July 2022, Congress passed a package of subsidies for select manufacturing industries to build factories, such as semiconductor makers (they’ll get $52 billion) and EV battery makers.But the wheels of government turn slowly, approvals take their time, disbursements of funds for large projects takes time, so the flow of these government funds would just be the first trickle in 2023. The bulk is still coming. For the calendar year 2023, spending on factory construction will likely get close to $200 billion. For the first 10 months, the ever-larger monthly amounts already reached $159 billion. If November and December are only flat with October, spending will reach $196 billion by year-end. The stagnation of factory construction through 2021 is a testimony to corporate chieftains in search of cheap labor.But the supply-chain and transportation catastrophe they ran into during the pandemic, the edgy relationship between the US and China, and the scary dependence of US companies on Chinese suppliers have triggered a big corporate rethink.It’s not like the US “isn’t making anything anymore,” but… The US is the second largest manufacturing country by output, behind China and has a greater share of global production than the next three countries combined, Germany, Japan, and India.But the US, as the largest economy in the world, has fallen far behind China in manufacturing and many sectors have become brutally dependent on China – and the shortages and supply-chain chaos of 2020-2021 were a wakeup call. Manufacturing’s share of GDP had been on a long downward trend in the US. The data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis only goes back to 2006. Back then, manufacturing accounted for over 13% of GDP. By early 2020, manufacturing was down to 10.5% of GDP. Since then, the share has been wobbling higher.This year’s construction spending boom will add to manufacturing’s share of GDP in the future when the plants are up and running and producing at scale, which takes time. In other words, this is a slow process, and it has a long way to go:
Are the Headlines about Factory Orders Messing with us Again? by Wolf Richter The headlines had a kind of shocking collapse-is-nigh quality: Manufacturing orders plunged “by the most since April 2020.” These are new orders that manufacturing sites in the US received. But the drop was off the all-time high a month earlier. And unfilled orders rose to an all-time high. The Census Bureau released the data today. So here we go. Unfilled orders rose to an all-time high of $1.36 trillion in October, up by 7.1% year-over-year, and up by 27% from 2019, according to Census Bureau data today. That’s the total backlog: New orders fell 3.6% from their all-time high in September to $577 billion in October. The data jumps up and down dramatically every month to the great excitement of the headlines. And the drop in October came off the all-time high in September. And it came after a huge spike in orders during the pandemic through June 2022. So compared to October 2019, new orders in October were still up by 26%! The drop in new orders of $21.8 billion in October from the record in September was mostly caused by “nondefense aircraft and parts” – a very volatile category powered by huge but irregular orders for Boeing – which plunged by half, or by $15.9 billion. But some other industries saw record manufacturing orders. What we can see is that after the spectacular spike through mid-2022, the boom in new orders overall has been plateauing at around these record levels for months, reached a new record in September, and declined off the record in October, in data that is notoriously volatile, with big month-to-month ups and downs. Major categories of new orders at US manufacturing sites. Orders for Nondefense Aircraft and Parts plunged by half and were the big culprit in the month-to-month decline. They are always volatile, spiking and plunging from month to month, as Boeing may get a large order in one month, and not much in the next. In October, orders plunged to $16 billion from $32 billion in September, and were back roughly where’d they been in August. See the negative orders starting in 2019? This occurred following the second crash of a Boeing 737 Max that triggered a wave of order cancellations, and previous orders were backed out. Transportation equipment was dragged down by the plunge in nondefense aircraft orders. In October, orders for transportation equipment dropped by $15.9 billion to $92 billion. Without nondefense aircraft, orders for transportation equipment were unchanged in October from September, at $76 billion, were also roughly unchanged from a year ago, and were up 12% from 2019. This category too shows big month-to-month ups and downs:
ISM® Services Index Increases to 52.7% in November --The ISM® Services index was at 52.7%, up from 51.8% last month. The employment index increased to 50.7%, from 50.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.7% November 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in November for the 11th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 52.7 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 41 of the last 42 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022. “In November, the Services PMI® registered 52.7 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than October’s reading of 51.8 percent. The composite index indicated growth in November for the 11th consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent; a 1-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 54.1 percent in October. The New Orders Index expanded in November for the 11th consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55.5 percent equals the October reading.The PMI was slightly above expectations.
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 8.7 million in October --From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. . Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in October to 8.73 million from 9.35 million in September. The number of job openings (black) were down 17% year-over-year. Quits were down 10% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
Job Market Retightened in Some Industries, Loosened in Others: Layoffs & Discharges, Voluntary Quits, Job Openings, and Hires by Wolf Richter -- We’re looking at this because the Fed is looking at it. Powell mentions it in the FOMC press conferences, because the Fed is looking for signs the labor market is getting less tight, and it got less tight overall – but remains tight. In some industries, it loosened. But in others, it re-tightened, such as in Professional and Business Services, where many tech companies are. In construction, it reached near record-tight. In manufacturing, it started to re-tighten again. That’s what the data shows that the Bureau of Labor Statistics released today as part of its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which is based on a large survey of employers (and not on internet job postings!!). Job openings fell in October after the surge in August, but remain very high; the three-month average has been roughly flat for four months in a row and was higher in October than it had been during the summer. Layoffs and discharges, despite breathless headlines about tech layoffs, are below their pre-pandemic lows. The rate of hiring has normalized, as the number of people who quit jobs has normalized because people have gotten scared after all these breathless layoff announcements, and so fewer people quit, and there were fewer newly vacated jobs that needed to be filled, and churn in the labor market backed off. Layoffs and discharges remained in the historically low range. In October, 1.64 million workers were let go for whatever reason, up a tad from September, but down from 1.68 million in July and August, and down from the 1.7-1.8 million range in early 2023. Businesses across the US fire workers for a variety of reasons, and this goes on all the time. When discharges are done for economic reasons, they’re layoffs. During the Good Times in 2014-2019, layoffs and discharges averaged 1.8 million per month. During the Great Recession, layoffs and discharges exceeded 2.5 million at the peak months. In March 2020, they hit 13 million. We use the three-month moving average to iron out the month-to-month ups and downs and show the trends: The rate of layoffs as a percent of nonfarm employment in October remained at 1.0%. During the Good Times before the pandemic, it ranged between 1.1% and 1.4%. In other words, the rate of layoffs and discharges in proportion of employment remains well below the lows of the good times: The number of people who were hired in October dipped to 5.89 million, but was still higher than in July and August. We can now see that the number of hires has normalized, after the hiring boom in 2021 and 2022: In October, it was up by 1.4% from October 2019. The number of hires is a function of two factors: expanding employment and the number of people who quit or get fired or retire or vanish in some other way, whose newly vacant jobs have to be filled with new hires; more on those voluntary quits in a moment: Voluntary quits edged down to 3.63 million but was still higher than in July. Over the past four months, quits essentially remained flat, which is a big change from the big ups and even bigger downs since early 2022. This chart shows the month-to-month changes, not the three-month moving average, which makes the sudden flat spot more visible. Clearly, quits have stabilized – after employers, during the era of the labor shortages, gave the biggest pay raises in 40 years on top of improved benefits and working conditions, in order to hire and retain workers. Fewer quits means employers have to hire fewer people to fill the newly vacant spots, so that’s good for employers. But fewer quits also means that natural attrition has slowed, and employers wishing to shed employees through attrition are seeing slower progress than anticipated, and we’ve already heard a few complaints about that suddenly. Job openings – as reported by companies, not online job postings – fell in October, more than undoing the big surge in August, but were still 19% higher than in October 2019. The three-month moving average (3MMA), after the high readings in August and September was flat for the fourth month in a row, and was up by 27% from the three-month average over the same period in 2019. So that’s the trend: job openings, like quits, stabilized at these lower, but still very high levels:
ADP: Private Employment Increased 103,000 in November --From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 103,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 5.6%Private sector employment increased by 103,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 5.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). T The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees....“Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.”This was below the consensus forecast of 120,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 200 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in November.
November Employment Report: 199 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 35,000, from +297,000 to +262,000, and the change for October remained at +150,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined is 35,000 lower than previously reported.The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 199 thousand in November. Private payrolls increased by 150 thousand, and public payrolls increased 49 thousand. Payrolls for September and October were revised down 35 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In November, the year-over-year change was 2.79 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year but has slowed to more normal levels of job growth recently. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.8% in November, from 62.7% in October. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.5% from 60.2% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate decreased to 3.7% in November from 3.9% in October.This was at consensus expectations, however, September and October payrolls were revised down by 35,000 combined.
November jobs report: signs of considerable strength, but warning signs of considerable weakness as well - Yesterday I wrote that “In tomorrow’s jobs report, my focus will be on whether the data is most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration has been continuing;” and more specifically:
- My expectation, based on real consumer spending, is that there is likely to be further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6 month average of 205,000,
- either a steady unemployment rate of 3.9% with a possible 0.1% increase to 4.0%.
- Based on the leading relationship of the quits rate to average hourly earnings, I expect YoY wage growth to remain steady at 4.4%, or to decline slightly further to 4.3%.
Two of the three came to pass. The six month average of jobs gained declined to 186,000, and average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers declined to 4.3%. But the unemployment rate declined -0.2% to 3.7% Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 199,000 jobs added (169,000 ex-returning strikers). On a YoY basis, jobs are up 1.8%.
- September was revised further downward, by -29,000, while October remained unchanged. This continues the pattern of downward revisions that we have seen all year except for two months ago. The 3 month moving average remained at 204,000 The June-August average of 167,000 remains the low.
- Private sector jobs increased 150,000 (120,000 ex-strike). Government jobs increased by 49,000. Excluding the UAW strike, June-s 104,000 remains the low.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, which declined* by -348,000 in October, rebounded by 747,000 in November. The YoY% gain in this report is +2.2%.
- The U3 unemployment rate fell -0.2% to 3.7%. The civilian labor force, the denominator in the figure, rose (by 532,000), and the numerator, the number of unemployed, declined (by -215,000).
- The U6 underemployment rate declined -0.2% to 7.0% (still 0.5% above its low set in December 2022).
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -49,000 to 5.324 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million set this past March.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined -0.1 hours to 40.6, equal to its lows earlier this year and down -0.9 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs rose 28,000 (but declined -2,000 ex-strike).
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs rose +30,000 (including the returning strikers).
- Construction jobs increased by 2,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined by -1,700. There had been a sharp rebound in the prior three months, but January remains the peak for this sector.
- Goods jobs as a whole rose 29,000 to a new expansion high (but were down -1,000 ex-returning strikers). These should decline before any recession occurs. They remain up 1.1% YoY,, which is an average pace compared with most of the last 40 years.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late last year, declined again, by -13,600, and are down about -240,000 since their peak in March 2022.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer declined -200,000 to 2,068,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.12, or +0.4%, to $29.68, a YoY gain of +4.3%. This is the lowest since June 2021.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose +0.4%, and is up 1.3% YoY, a sharp rebound from last month.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose less than 0.9%, and is up 5.7% YoY, and increase of 0.5% from one month ago and a three month high. This is 2.5% above the most recent inflation rate, meaning average working class families have more buying power.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 40,000, which is still -158,000, or -0.9% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments rose 38,300, which is about 45,000 above their pre-pandemic peak.
- Professional and business employment declined -9,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs, With revisions, this series has been declining, by -46,000 since May, and is currently up 0.8% YoY, its lowest YoY gain since March 2021. For the entire 80+ year history of this series, any YoY gain this low only occurred during recessions.
- The employment population ratio rose 0.3% to 60.5%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate rose 0.1% to 62.8%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: This month’s report, like last month’s was affected by the UAW strike. But, as if often the case, the establishment report (which gives us job gains and losses in various sectors) and the household report (which gives us the un- and under-employment rates) told very different stories. The household report was as excellent as last month’s report was bad. All of the losses in October were made up, or more, in November. More people entered the labor force, and more of them found jobs. Like weekly initial claims, short term unemployment declined (i.e., there were fewer layoffs), and there were fewer discouraged job-seekers.But the establishment report contained some warnings. Once we back out returning strikers, manufacturing employment declined, as did residential construction, and more broadly goods producing jobs, as well as temporary employment. In other words, every sector that I would expect to roll over before a recession, with the exception of total construction employment, has now done so. Perhaps just as ominously, as noted above the decline in professional and business employment similar to the last 6 months over the entire 80+ year history of the series has only occurred at the onset of recessions.On the other hand, aggregate hours and payrolls had big increases this month. Most importantly, until real, inflation-adjusted payrolls decline significantly, I would not expect any recession to begin. In conclusion, this was a very mixed report, with some signs of considerable strength, and others of considerable weakness. There is no contraction - but there is no strong expansion either.
Wage Growth Not Cooperating with Rosy Scenario of a Normalizing Labor Market --by Wolf Richter • The labor market in November showed once again that it refuses to kowtow to Wall Street, which has wanted a decline in the labor market along with a recession that would force the Fed to cut rates, and this has been going on since about mid last year, but now it has reached a crescendo with rate-cut bets for 2024 that would assume a plunge in the labor market. But hilariously, the labor market just keeps on plugging, and the crazy gyrations during the pandemic caused by labor shortages and other issues have settled down. The number of working people jumped, the number of jobs created rose more than feared, the labor force jumped, the number of unemployed people fell and was low, the unemployment rate fell and was low, the employment-population ratio rose… So this is a labor market that is in pretty good shape, in amazingly good shape actually, given the interest rate environment. It’s roughly growing at similar and higher rates than before the pandemic, despite the interest rate environment. With the labor shortages and gyrations during the pandemic having settled down, one would expect wages to slow their growth in alignment with this normalizing scenario, but they did not. Wage growth accelerated. And as recent labor actions have shown – they won massive increases in wages for 2024 and future years – wage growth might just be the thing that doesn’t cooperate with this normalizing scenario. Average hourly wages of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees in the private sector jumped by 0.41% in November (5.0% annualized), the third month in a row of acceleration, after the low point in August. This puts November wage growth at the upper end of the range since late last year (red line in the chart below). These “production and non-supervisory employees” include working supervisors and all employees in nonsupervisory roles, such as engineers, designers, doctors and nurses, teachers, office workers, sales people, bartenders, technicians, drivers, retail workers, wait staff, construction workers, plumbers, etc. This is the bulk of private sector employment. The three month-to-month accelerations in a row cause the three-month moving average to jump to 0.34% (blue line). Note the big deceleration in August to 0.21% growth, which has now turned out to have been a head fake. Compared to a year ago, average hourly wages of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees decelerated to a growth rate of 4.31%, down from 4.36% in the prior month. The deceleration largely stemmed from the month-to-month head-fake in August. Another month of 0.41% growth, so in December, and the year-over-year growth rate would be stuck at 4.3%. And a second month of 0.41% wage growth, so in January, and the year-over-year growth rate would rise to 4.42%. In other words, year-over-year wage growth, with another two months of this type of increase, would be U-turning and heading higher. Month-to-month wage growth is very zigzaggy, so it’s unlikely it will produce three months in a row of the same month-to-month growth figure. Instead, it will zigzag. But the last three months showed that the August zag to +0.28% was a head fake, followed by three zigs. Month-to-month wage growth is now back at the upper range where it had been earlier this year and late last year. It got back to that upper end of the range by re-accelerating three months in a row, which it hadn’t done since early 2021 during the big gyrations. And this upper end of the range is an annualized wage growth of 5%. And for the Fed, this kind of wage growth is not compatible with inflation decelerating toward 2%. 36 Comments
Comments on November Employment Report – Bill McBride - The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%.Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 98% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 2 thousand and is now 425 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 28 thousand jobs and is now 200 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.In October, the year-over-year employment change was 2.79 million jobs. Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 264 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in November. This was about the same as last year and suggests similar real retail sales this holiday season as last year.This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 38 thousand jobs in November.Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in November at 83.3% from 83.3% in October, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio declined to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.Both are close to the pre-pandemic levels.The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in November. Since wages increased sharply last December, it is likely YoY wage growth will slow further next month. From the BLS report: "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 million in November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 million from 4.28 million in October. This is below pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.0% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is at the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 1.150 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.282 million the previous month.This is at pre-pandemic levels.Through November 2023, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 35 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was at consensus expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%. Another solid employment report.
6.9 million users of 23andMe had personal information stolen by hackers --An estimated 6.9 million users of the genetic testing company 23andMe had their personal information stolen by hackers in a recent data breach, a company spokesperson confirmed to The Hill on Monday.A spokesperson for 23andMe told The Hill an estimated 5.5 million users had their data accessed from the company’s DNA Relatives feature, which helps users find and connect with family relatives who also have the feature enabled.Hackers also breached the data of an additional 1.4 million people’s family tree profiles, which includes a variety of identifying information about the user, the spokesperson said.TechCrunch first reported the estimated 6.9 million users impacted in the breach.23andMe first announced the data breach in early October and said both third-party forensic experts and federal law enforcement officials were assisting in the investigation.Last Friday, the company said the investigation was complete, and filed findings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In the findings, the company said hackers were able to access 0.1 percent of the company’s user data, which the company called a “very small percentage.” The spokesperson confirmed Monday this equals about 14,000 users.Hackers were able to access accounts in instances where usernames and passwords that were used on the 23andMe website matched those used on other websites that were previously compromised, according to the spokesperson.The spokesperson added the hackers used this information to access the DNA Relatives profile files and Family Tree profile information.“We do not have any indication that there has been a breach or data security incident within our systems, or that 23andMe was the source of the account credentials used in these attacks,” the spokesperson noted.
Dominion Energy seeks to raise natural gas bills for 1.2 million Ohio customers — Dominion Energy is asking regulators to approve a plan that would increase the bills for residential natural gas customers by $13 a month, with potential for more cost increases each year. The proposed increases are not expected to take effect until 2025. They are part of the company’s rate case that’s been filed with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. If approved, the changes would raise monthly distribution costs from $43.30 to $56.34 - an increase of roughly 30%.
Legal weed takes effect in Ohio as lawmakers scramble to change voter-passed law - Ohio is officially the 24th state to have legal, adult-use marijuana.Provisions of a voter-approved legalization law took effect at midnight, including legal possession and home cultivation for anyone at least 21 years old. But Ohio lawmakers are rushing to pass legislation to make changes to the initiative. On Wednesday, the Senate passed legislation to alter potency caps, taxation, home cultivation, and social equity and expungement provisions. The Senate proposal would also speed up legal sales by allowing medical marijuana dispensaries to start serving recreational customers immediately.Under the voter-passed law, cannabis is subject to a 10 percent excise tax and revenues are directed towards an equity and jobs program.The legalization law also sets up a new cannabis regulatory agency, which will have nine months to go through a rule-making process to launch adult-use sales.The Senate proposal would halve the number of plants allowed for home grow, increase the excise tax to 15 percent and allow medical marijuana dispensaries to start serving the adult-use market immediately. It would require expungements upon request and scrap the social equity and jobs program. Instead, the tax revenues would go towards law enforcement training, substance abuse treatment and the state’s general fund. “What the Senate passed yesterday still does not respect the will of the voters,” said Tom Haren, a spokesperson for the legalization campaign.Haren says that potency restrictions and higher tax rates under the Senate bill will make it difficult to compete with the illicit market and will still drive Ohioans to buy marijuana in Michigan. The House Finance committee is taking up its own marijuana bill today. The House bill hews closer to the voter-approved initiative.
Florida school district adding 4-day weekends to combat chronic absences — The Pasco County School District in Florida is introducing a new approach to the school calendar in the 2024-25 school year to combat chronic absenteeism. The new schedule will include several “four-day mini breaks strategically placed throughout the years,” the district said. The extended weekends will be held from October 12-15, 2024, February 14-17, 2025, and April 18-21, 2025. 10 best and worst cities for singles, study finds The school district hopes the added breaks will encourage families to take trips or schedule appointments during these days, to boost attendance during scheduled contact days. “This forward-thinking initiative not only benefits students but also accommodates the needs of parents and guardians who often struggle to coordinate family vacations with the academic calendar,” the district added. Pasco County Schools listed five benefits of the new schedule including improved student engagement, tackling chronic absenteeism, empowering parents and guardians, increased classroom instructional hours, and strengthening family bonds. The district said they hope the more frequent, shorter breaks with foster a harmonious balance between education and family life.
Facing over $17 million budget shortfall, Michigan school district could lay off up to 100 workers - Public school districts across the US, large and small, are being slammed with bipartisan-imposed budget cuts, layoffs and school closures. . The end of COVID-19 funding, years of austerity budgets, a demographic decline, and the growth of charter school businesses have all combined to create a budgetary cliff. [Photo: Wayne-Westland Community Schools] In the Wayne-Westland Community Schools District (WWCSD), just outside Detroit, Michigan, a $17 million budget shortfall has provoked outrage from teachers, students and parents. On December 1, WWCSD began laying off personnel and announced it would investigate privatizing school bus services. The response of the executive director of the Wayne-Westland MEA (Michigan Education Association) Tanya Karpinski, predictably, made no attempt to launch any fight to defend the jobs of her members. She told WXYZ-TV on December 6 that “the upcoming holidays will be tough for staff members,” who will be laid off. “They don’t know if they will be celebrating with gifts, or looking forward to the joy of family time and the holiday spirit …” Events since the school board meeting of October 23 have uncovered not merely negligence and possible deliberate wrongdoing, but the systematic destruction of this public school district as part of the draining of all public funding for profit and war. The Wayne-Westland District is not unique. The same process is occurring almost everywhere across the US. Elsewhere in Michigan, the Detroit Public Schools Community District eliminated 100 positions over the summer, axing paraprofessional and other staff in K-12 schools. Ten schools in Grand Rapids are on the chopping block. Grosse Pointe cut $5 million this school year, laying off educators and staff. The immediate trigger in Wayne-Westland was the revelation by a Plante-Moran auditor at the October 23 school board meeting that the 2023 general fund balance, as a percentage of expenditures, had shrunk to 6.2 percent from over 23 percent. However, it soon became clear that the vanishing $17.6 million was a veil covering the precarious state of the district’s finances. During impassioned appeals from colleagues, parents and students against the involuntary transfer of a beloved teacher at John Glenn High School, the board acknowledged that the mid-term transfer had been done without regard to the educational impact, but, in the words of student Makala Brohard, this was “a business decision that had nothing to do with students whatsoever, but with money.” Speaking out against the disruption to the students, the teacher himself, David Daly, said, “If Wayne-Westland would rather put the business of education above the lives of our students … they are sending a message. … Business before students, solutions are not wanted, students are dollars, teachers are expendable …” While the implications of the budget reduction were not immediately apparent at the board meeting, within days, community members began pressing for answers on the “missing” $17 million, which had been attributed by Plante-Moran to an increase in employee salary and benefits. However, in a subsequent special board meeting on November 8, attended by hundreds of angry parents and students, board President David Cox explained that the district was within a hair’s breadth of the state of Michigan taking over the district if it failed to stay within 5 percent of its budget. Seeking to pin blame for the budget shortfall on the former CFO of the district, Cox claimed the state of Michigan’s contribution of $8.2 million toward the employee retirement fund, meant as a pass-through from one account to another, was never deducted from the bank in 2022, and when the 2023 budget was presented, it had been “copied and pasted” from the previous year, therefore doubling the error. He implied that another budget problem arose from the failure of the finance officer to include cost-of-living contributions into the 2023 contracts. It was not until the CFO left her position and the district called in an auditor from Wayne RESA that the discrepancy was uncovered. Business before students, solutions are not wanted, students are dollars, teachers are expendable …” Concluding his remarks, Daly said, “I’m just here to shine this light on someone or some group who would seek to charterize our public school rather than recognize the human potential and irreversible harm that’s done when we put profits over people. …”
"A Marketplace For Predators": New Mexico Sues Meta, Mark Zuckerberg Over Child Exploitation Following Investigation -- The state of New Mexico has sued social media giant Meta and its CEO Mark Zuckerberg for "knowingly" exposing children to 'sexual exploitation and mental health harm.'In a Tuesday court filing, New Mexico’s Attorney General’s (NMAG) Office revealed that it had conducted an undercover investigation, creating fake accounts of minors which were then used to fish for offending content, according to a press release reported by the Daily Caller."Meta and its CEO tell the public that Meta’s social media platforms are safe and good for kids," reads the lawsuit. "The reality is far different. Meta knowingly exposes children to the twin dangers of sexual exploitation and mental health harm. Meta’s conduct has turned New Mexico children who are on its platforms into victims. Meta’s motive for doing so is profit."Meta is accused of allowing Facebook and Instagram to become "a marketplace for predators in search of children upon whom to prey.""Our investigation into Meta’s social media platforms demonstrates that they are not safe spaces for children but rather prime locations for predators to trade child pornography and solicit minors for sex," said Democratic New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez in the press release. "As a career prosecutor who specialized in internet crimes against children, I am committed to using every available tool to put an end to these horrific practices and I will hold companies — and their executives — accountable whenever they put profits ahead of children’s safety."A total of 33 state attorneys general launched a joint lawsuit against Meta related to its platforms’ alleged harmful effects on children, according to a court filing in October. Eight other states and Washington, D.C., launched distinct lawsuits against Meta the same day, according to The Washington Post.Zuckerberg and other Big Tech CEOs are scheduled to testify about child exploitation in January, according to The Verge. -Daily Caller"Mark Zuckerberg and Meta … have misled the public and failed to make changes to Meta’s platforms that would protect children and teens," Torrez told the Caller. "In addition to seeking civil penalties to deter Meta from continuing to jeopardize children’s safety, the NMAG is petitioning the court to permanently stop Meta’s harmful practices and demand a change."The lawsuit comes approximately one week after Meta-owned Instagram allowed pedophiles to search for content with explicit hashtags such as #pedowhore and #preteensex, which were then used to connect them to accounts that advertise child-sex material for sale from users going under names such as "little slut for you." And according to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children, Meta accounted for more than 85% of child pornography reports, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Keeping children safe in a rapidly changing digital landscape -- Twenty years after starting as an intern at an organization to help create a safe media environment for children, Josh Golin is leading the group’s efforts as its executive director. The mission of Fairplay, formerly known as the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood, has stayed the same. But along the way, Golin, who took over as executive director in 2015, has seen how its target shifts. “When I started doing this work, we were primarily focused on things like television commercials, and junk food marketing to kids and the childhood obesity epidemic,” .Golin said a big milestone moment was in 2019, when the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) settled with Google over illegal data collection on YouTube, triggered by a complaint the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood filed along with the Center for Digital Democracy. The settlement required Google and its subsidiary YouTube to pay $170 million to settle allegations of collecting personal information from children without their parents’ consent, in violation of the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA). In response, YouTube alsopublished a blog post about updates to better protect data for children’s content.“We don’t think that settlement was strong enough. It should have been for more money. There should have been different ways about the way it was implemented. But it was really important. It was the first time a major platform was forced by regulators to change how they were interacting with children,” Golin said.That outcome led the group to change its focus on advocacy work. Before then, the group was active at the FTC mostly to garner media attention or pressure the companies to change, he said.“We had zero faith that regulators would actually do something with the evidence that we were bringing to them. And 2019 really was an eye-opener,” he said. Recently, Fairplay and other advocacy groups have been advocating fiercely for Congress to pass two bills: COPPA 2.0, which would update the data privacy rules for minors, and the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), which would create a duty of care for social media platforms to prevent harm. KOSA would give the FTC and state attorneys general enforcement authority. Both bills advanced out of the Senate Commerce Committee with bipartisan support in July. The bills also received bipartisan support from the committee last year but failed to make it to a full floor vote before the end of the session. Although they have bipartisan support, there is a coalition of LGBTQ rights groups that have raised concerns that KOSA could be weaponized by state attorneys general to censor information about LGBTQ health. Golin said he understands the concerns raised, but the current version of the legislation has narrowed the definition of duty of care “to such a way that there is no legal way for an attorney general to use that to censor LGBTQ content.”
Penguin Random House, authors sue Iowa education administrators over book ban The country’s largest publisher and four bestselling authors are part of a lawsuit filed Thursday against Iowa’s law that bans public school libraries and classrooms from having nearly any book that depicts sexual activity. Penguin Random House and authors Laurie Halse Anderson, John Green, Malinda Lo and Jodi Picoult, as well as parents, educators and the Iowa State Education Association, filed the legal action Thursday in federal district court in the Southern District of Iowa. “Authors have the right to communicate their ideas to students without undue interference from the government,” the lawsuit said. The law, Senate File 496, bans books with sexual content all the way through 12th grade and has an exception for religious texts. It also bans books that address gender identity or sexual orientation for students through sixth grade. The lawsuit argues that the law violates the First and 14th amendments because it is a content-based restriction, restricts access to constitutionally protected books and is “unconstitutionally vague.” The prohibition of books addressing gender identity and sexual orientation is a “sweeping prohibition” that is so broad that it could apply to “all gender identities and any depiction of a romantic relationship.” But in practice, only books containing LGBTQ themes, characters or authors have been prohibited, the suit argues. It’s the second lawsuit filed against the Iowa law this week. The American Civil Liberties Union (ALCU) of Iowa and Lambda Legal sued on Tuesday, arguing that the measure violates the constitutional rights of LGBTQ students.“Friday Night Lights” author H.G. “Buzz” Bissinger previously said the ban was “absolutely tragic” and compared it to Nazi Germany.Many famous books published by Penguin Random House (PRH) have been prohibited under the law, including George Orwell’s “1984,” “Beloved” by Toni Morrison, John Green’s “The Fault in Our Stars,” “The Handmaid’s Tale” by Margaret Atwood. “PRH’s mission is to ignite a universal passion for reading by creating books for everyone and creating a world where independent thinking, free expression, and creativity flourish,” the lawsuit said. “Continued inclusion of its books in public school libraries and classroom collections is critical to PRH’s mission, especially for books intended for elementary and young-adult readers.” According to a statement released by the company, the publishing house is defending books in court because “censorship, in the form of book bans, is a direct threat to democracy” and its mission.
Debates brew over cellphones at school -- Schools are rolling out creative ways to crack down on students’ use of phones during the school day — and the trend is fueling debates about the wisdom of such bans. Some schools have partnered with companies to implement the use of pouches that students are required to put their phones into at the beginning of the day and that don’t unlock until the final bell rings. Others are threatening punishments including suspension if a student is caught with their phone, even at lunch time, our colleague Lexi Lonas reported. Educators appear ecstatic about getting students off their phones during class, but there are lingering concerns from both parents and children about being phoneless in emergency situations and if this is the best way to address the problem. Renesha Parks, chief wellness officer at Richmond Public Schools in Virginia, told The Hill of a pilot policy being implemented in six schools at the beginning of 2024 to stop cellphone usage, partnering with Yondr, which creates magnetic pouches for cellphones. The measure will impact around 4,200 students and cost about $75,000. “It’s a very costly initiative. But we do feel like it will decrease the amount of infractions that are happening as a result of student’s cellphone use and increase productivity and academic instruction in the classroom. It’s worth the investment,” Parks said. While she said educators in the district were thrilled with the idea, the support for it is split among parents and students. And success of the program, she said, will be judged based on feedback surveys as well as student achievement and discipline data.
Oakland teachers participate in pro-Palestine teach-in - Oakland, Calif., public school teachers conducted a pro-Palestine teach-in on Wednesday despite a lack of support from their district. A group within the Oakland Education Association decided to conduct a teach-in where pro-Palestine materials would be taught in classrooms, The New York Times reported. The group made a list of suggested material, which calls Israel an “apartheid state.” “A group of bullies called Zionists wanted our land so they stole it by force and hurt many people,” a suggested coloring book for elementary school students said, urging the students to “Trace a way home” for the Palestinian character, according to The Times. The union president says the suggested curriculum was not reviewed by the association and the superintendent of the district condemned the event entirely. “I know that many of you are aware of the unsanctioned teach-in planned by outside organizing in our schools this Wednesday, December 6. I want to make clear that the District does not authorize this action. Furthermore, I want to make clear that the instructional materials developed and shared by the teach-in organizers are not aligned with the materials, and guidance provided by the school,” said Superintendent Kyla Johnson-Trammell. Another suggested book in the recommended curriculum teaches the alphabet and says “I is for Intifada, Intifada is Arabic for rising up for what is right, if you are a kid or a grown-up!” the Times wrote. Those in the effort told the Times they expected 100 teachers to participate, and the school has not made clear if any disciplinary action will be taken.
Faculty at Sacramento State, other CSU campuses, to strike for better pay (AP) — Faculty at California State University, the largest public university system in the U.S., kicked off a series of one-day strikes starting Monday across four campuses to demand higher pay and more parental leave for thousands of professors, librarians, coaches and other workers. Hundreds of faculty members picketed at California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, also known as Cal Poly Pomona, to launch the latest push by the California Faculty Association to fight for better pay and benefits for the roughly 29,000 workers the union represents across the university system’s 23 campuses. The union is seeking a 12% salary raise and an increase in parental leave from six weeks to a full semester. They also want more manageable workloads for faculty, better access to breastfeeding stations and more gender-inclusive restrooms. “What we’re doing is in the spirit of maintaining the integrity of what the public education system should be for,” said Maria Gisela Sanchez, a counselor at Cal Poly Pomona who picketed Monday. “Public education belongs to all of us.” The union also planned strikes this week at San Francisco State University; California State University, Los Angeles; and California State University, Sacramento. The California State University chancellor’s office says the pay increase the union is seeking would cost the system $380 million in new recurring spending. That would be $150 million more than increased funding for the system by the state for the 2023-24 year, the office said. Leora Freedman, the vice chancellor for human resources, said in a statement that the university system aims to pay its workers fairly and provide competitive benefits. “We recognize the need to increase compensation and are committed to doing so, but our financial commitments must be fiscally sustainable,” Freedman said. She said the chancellor’s office respects workers’ right to strike and would prepare to minimize disruptions on campuses. Cal Poly Pomona leadership said the campus would remain open and that some faculty would still hold classes. Instructors participating in the strike notified students about cancellations and gave them instructions to prepare for the next class. .
Former Harvard disinformation researcher alleges school pushed her from job after Zuckerberg donation - A prominent disinformation researcher who worked at Harvard University alleged her project was thwarted and her position ended early after the university received a $500 million donation from Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan, according to a whistleblower disclosure released Monday. The researcher, Joan Donovan, alleged that Harvard blocked her and her team at the Shorenstein Center at the Harvard Kennedy School from continuing their research and eventually ended Donavan’s employment before the end of her contract after the Chan Zuckerberg initiative committed a $500 million donation to a university center on artificial intelligence in December 2021. Donovan, represented by Whistleblower Aid, the nonprofit group that previously worked with Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen, requested an investigation into appropriate influence at the Harvard Kennedy School, according to the disclosure sent last week to Harvard’s president, as well as the U.S. Department of Education and the Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office. Details of the disclosure were first reported by The Washington Post. The $500 million donation from the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative came after Donovan began a project called the “Facebook Archive,” which aimed to make the internal Facebook documents released by Haugen publicly available, the disclosure stated. Whistleblower Aid CEO Libby Liu said Meta is following the playbook of “Big Tobacco, Big Energy and Big Pharma,” of influencing and co-opting research to “protect their lies, their profits and evade accountability.” “Whether Harvard acted at the company’s direction or took the initiative on their own to protect Meta’s interests, the outcome is the same: corporate interests are undermining research and academic freedom to the detriment of the public,” Liu said in a statement.
Police say 3 dead, fourth wounded and shooter also dead in UNLV attack -— Three people were fatally shot Wednesday and a fourth person was critically wounded in an attack on the University of Nevada, Las Vegas campus, police said. The suspected shooter also was found dead. The attack just before noon sent police swarming onto the campus, which is just a couple of miles from the world-famous Las Vegas Strip while students barricaded themselves in classrooms. Authorities gave the all-clear about 40 minutes after the first report of an active shooter. Police haven’t released the identity of the shooter or the motive for the attack. The shootings took place in a city still scarred by an October 2017 attack by a gunman at the Mandalay Bay casino that killed 60 people and wounded hundreds more. Alerts went out across the campus after callers reported an active shooter to police at 11:45 a.m. Wednesday, said Adam Garcia, a university police official. He said officers found and “engaged” a suspect, who is now dead. It was not immediately clear how the suspect died. Students and professors on the campus of 30,000 barricaded themselves inside classrooms and dorm rooms. Professor Kevaney Martin took cover under a desk in her classroom, where another faculty member and three students took shelter with her. “It was terrifying, I can’t even begin to explain,” Martin said. “I was trying to hold it together for my students, and trying not to cry, but the emotions are something I never want to experience again.” When another professor came to the room and told everyone to evacuate, they joined dozens of others rushing out of the building. Martin had her students piled into her car and drove them off campus. “Once we got away from UNLV, we parked and sat in silence,” she said. “Nobody said a word. We were in utter shock.” The university said on X that the shooter was at the Beam Hall, Frank and Estella Building, home of UNLV’s Lee Business School, and that police were responding to an additional report of shots fired at the nearby student union. Las Vegas police posted on X that a suspect “has been located and is deceased” about 40 minutes after the initial alert was posted. Students and the community were alerted to the emergency by a university post on X. “This is not a test,” the university wrote. “RUN-HIDE-FIGHT.” Student Matthew Felsenfeld said he and about 12 classmates barricaded their door in a building near the student union. He said he didn’t hear gunfire or see anyone injured but said he saw out the windows as police staged to enter the neighboring building. A short while later, police came and ushered them out.
Las Vegas shooting: Suspect identified as troubled academic – DW – The gunman in a deadly shooting at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) was a financially struggling academic, police said on Thursday. The shooter, who died at the scene, killed three people on Wednesday and injured another. Police identified the perpetrator as Anthony James Polito. The 67-year-old had a list of targets at UNLV and East Carolina University in North Carolina, where he once taught. He had applied for jobs at several educational institutions in the US state of Nevada, but was denied employment each time, authorities said. Polito appeared to have sent 22 letters to various university personnel across the country with no return address, the police said. Sheriff Kevin McMahill of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department said authorities had managed to intercept the letters before they were delivered. A suspicious white powdery substance was found in at least one of them. The UNLV shooting left at least three people dead before the suspect's death. All victims were faculty members but none of them were on the list of targets. A fourth individual, a 38-year-old visiting professor, was injured and his condition was downgraded to life-threatening on Thursday, police said. UNLV President Keith E. Whitfield said that the shooting "was the most difficult day in the history of our university." He identified two of the victims as business school professors Patricia Navarro-Velez and Cha Jan "Jerry" Chang. While the precise motive for the shooting had not been determined, officials said UNLV students did not appear to be the primary target of the attack. However, authorities noted that Polito had applied for several jobs at different colleges and universities in Nevada and was denied the job each time. "We know he had applied numerous times for jobs with several Nevada higher education institutions," McMahill said, without specifying whether UNLV was one of them. He added that police had uncovered evidence that Polito was struggling financially, citing an eviction notice on the door of his residence. He had a previous criminal record of computer trespass back in 1992 in Virginia.
3 university presidents to face grilling on campus antisemitism at House hearing -- The presidents of Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the University of Pennsylvania will be called to the mat Tuesday after weeks of backlash over their schools’ responses to surging antisemitism. “Over the past several weeks, we’ve seen countless examples of antisemitic demonstrators on college campuses,” House Education Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) said in a statement announcing the hearing titled “Holding Campus Leaders Accountable and Confronting Antisemitism.” The administrators, Foxx said, “have largely stood by, allowing horrific rhetoric to fester and grow.” The hearing will examine incidents of antisemitism on each of the campuses, with Republicans and probably Democrats chastising the presidents for their actions both before recent events and in response. GOP lawmakers have already called two other hearings to discuss the rise in antisemitism at American schools, bringing in experts who have said schools have not done enough and Jewish students who testified they did not feel safe on campus. Harvard and Pennsylvania both had billionaire donors cut their funding to the schools because of their responses. Harvard first came under criticism in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack after 30 student-led groups posted a letter that blamed the attack on Israel. University President Claudine Gay at first hesitated to condemn the letter, leading to anger and accusations the school did not care for its Jewish students. The Anti-Defamation League reported 312 antisemitic incidents from Oct. 7-23 in the U.S., which is up from 64 such incidents the group found in the same period in 2022. And antisemitism was on the rise even before the attack in October: The FBI found antisemitic hate crimes went up 25 percent from 2021 to 2022. In November, UPenn had to alert the FBI about emails that were sent to university staff that were “threatening violence against members of our Jewish community, specifically naming Penn Hillel and Lauder College House,” according to President Liz Magill. The MIT Israel Alliance wrote a letter to the university alleging that Jewish and Israeli students were at one point “physically prevented” from going to class by a “pro-Hamas” group. At the end of November, the Department of Education announced it was investigating Harvard after complaints it did not respond to reports of harassment against Jewish and Israeli students since Oct. 7. The department was already investigating complaints of antisemitism and Islamophobia against seven other schools, including UPenn. “The University’s silence in the face of reprehensible and historic Hamas evil against the people of Israel (when the only response should be outright condemnation) is a new low. Silence is antisemitism, and antisemitism is hate, the very thing higher ed was built to obviate,” former U.S. Ambassador and longtime UPenn donor Jon Huntsman said in a letter to Magill. An MIT student recently told The Hill the school’s administration has ignored the calls for more protection for students. “You have administrators and people in power making students feel so scared and unsafe on campus, and the MIT administration is fully aware of every single one of these cases,” said Talia Khan, a 25-year-old grad student.
College presidents seek to clarify position on calls for Jewish genocide after blowback - The University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) and Harvard University presidents posted remarks online Wednesday seeking to clarify their position after refusing to state unequivocally that calling for the genocide of Jews violates their school harassment rules.The presidents were joined by the president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on Tuesday when they were chastised in Congress for their responses to the rise of antisemitism on their respective campuses since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.Lawmakers asked the presidents if calling for the genocide of Jews violated the schools’ bullying and harassment policies. The school presidents generally said the speech could be investigated if warranted, but it would be a context-based decision whether it violated school policies.Harvard President Claudine Gay, who took some of the biggest hits in the hearing, said it has been a difficult task balancing free speech and student safety during these times. In a statement posted online, she said, “There are some who have confused a right to free expression with the idea that Harvard will condone calls for violence against Jewish students.”“Let me be clear: Calls for violence or genocide against the Jewish community, or any religious or ethnic group are vile, they have no place at Harvard, and those who threaten our Jewish students will be held to account,” Gay said.
How accusations of college antisemitism went from bad to worse with one House hearing - College leaders seeking to fend off accusations of failing to protect their students from rising antisemitism have instead shot themselves in the foot. For weeks the presidents of Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) were drowning in criticism of not taking the problem seriously enough after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and a House hearing this week put them further into treacherous water. The opportunity for the presidents to make the public feel confident in their steps has turned into calls for their resignation after all three tried to sidestep a question on if a call for the genocide of Jewish people would be considered harassment. That blow came towards the end of the four-hour House Education Committee hearing, when Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) got an opportunity to question all three presidents for the sixth time, after other Republicans yielded her their time. Harvard President Claudine Gay said such a genocidal call could violate the school’s policies “depending on the context.” Sally Kornbluth, the head of MIT, said the calls would need to be “pervasive” and would warrant an investigation. Penn President Liz Magill got into a longer back-and-forth with Stefanik on the issue, with it ultimately coming to a head when Magill testified: “If the speech becomes conduct, it can be harassment.” “Conduct meaning committing the act of genocide?” Stefanik retorted. The pushback was swift and strong, with the White House calling it“unbelievable that this needs to be said: Calls for genocide are monstrous and antithetical to everything we represent as a country.” On Thursday, Education Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) announced “a formal investigation into the learning environments at Harvard, UPenn, and MIT and their policies and disciplinary procedures.” “The testimony we received earlier this week from Presidents Gay, Magill, and Kornbluth about the responses of Harvard, UPenn, and MIT to the rampant antisemitism displayed on their campuses by students and faculty was absolutely unacceptable,” Foxx said. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) called on Penn’s board of directors to convene “soon” to have a “serious discussion” on if Magill’s comments represent the “values” of the university. “That was an unacceptable statement from the president of Penn,” Shapiro said. “Frankly, I thought her comments were absolutely shameful. It should not be hard to condemn genocide.”
Penn loses $100 million donation after antisemitism hearing - --The University of Pennsylvania (Penn) lost a major $100 million donation on Thursday amid the fallout from Penn President Liz Magill’s comments at a recent House hearing on campus antisemitism. In a letter to Penn Senior Vice President Wendy White, lawyers for Ross Stevens, the founder and CEO of Stone Ridge Asset Management, said Stevens would be withdrawing his gift, now valued at about $100 million, that was expected to fund the Stevens Center for Innovation in Finance. Stevens’s lawyers allege Penn violated the terms of Stone Ridge’s limited partner agreement with the school. “Mr. Stevens and Stone Ridge are appalled by the University’s stance on antisemitism on campus,” Stevens’s lawyers wrote. “Its permissive approach to hate speech calling for violence against Jews and laissez faire attitude toward harassment and discrimination against Jewish students would violate any policies or rules that prohibit harassment and discrimination based on religion, including those of Stone Ridge.” The letter noted Stevens and Stone Ridge would be open to discussing the matter further and would give the school the chance to “remedy” its alleged violations of the agreement. “Until then, there can be no meaningful discussion about remedying the University’s ongoing failure to honor its obligations,” attorneys Neil Barr and Dana M. Seshens wrote. Stevens is a graduate of Penn and also has a child who recently graduated from the school. Another one of his children is a junior at the university. “Absent a change in leadership and values at Penn in the very near future, I plan to rescind Penn’s Stone Ridge shares to prevent any further reputational and other damage to Stone Ridge as a result of our relationship with Penn and Liz Magill,” Stevens wrote in a note to his staff on Thursday. “I love Penn and it is important to me, but our firm’s principles are more important.”
Penn board of trustees convenes after school president’s House comments -The University of Pennsylvania’s (Penn) board of trustees held an informal virtual gathering Thursday following Penn President Liz Magill receiving bipartisan condemnation for her comments at a House hearing on campus antisemitism. The trustees had a virtual call that began Thursday morning at 9 a.m. EST and ran for a couple of hours, a source familiar with the matter told The Hill. After the virtual meeting, the executive committee for the board had an informal lunch at noon. It is unknown what was discussed at these informal events, but they follow backlash Magill faced after she was asked at the House hearing if calls for Jewish genocide would be considered harassment on campus. She responded “If the speech becomes conduct, it can be harassment,” which prompted Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to counter, “Conduct meaning committing the act of genocide?” The source familiar contested media describing it as an “emergency meeting,” saying, “an emergency meeting would be the same day. This meeting was called yesterday and didn’t happen until 18 hours later.” They also said an official meeting between the trustees has certain requirements that were not met for this gathering.The virtual gathering was planned the same day Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) called on the board to meet “soon” to have a “serious discussion” if Magill’s comments represented the university. Both Democratic senators for Pennsylvania also condemned Magill for her testimony.“That was an unacceptable statement from the president of Penn,” Shapiro said. “Frankly, I thought her comments were absolutely shameful. It should not be hard to condemn genocide.”
UPenn president Magill resigns in wake of antisemitism controversy -University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill resigned on Saturday following criticism of comments she gave in a House hearing this week about rising antisemitism on college campuses.At the hearing Tuesday, Magill and other college leaders controversially said that it would depend on context whether comments calling for genocide of Jewish people would be considered harassment.Those statements brought her under fire from university alumni and Pennsylvania politicians, some of whom called on her to resign or be removed from the role.“I write to share that President Liz Magill has voluntarily tendered her resignation as President of the University of Pennsylvania,” Board of Trustees Chair Scott Bok said in an email to university alumni. “She will remain a tenured faculty member at Penn Carey Law.”“On behalf of the entire Penn community, I want to thank President Magill for her service to the University as President and wish her well,” he continued.
MIT board announces support for university president after backlash to House testimony - MIT’s governing board released a statement Thursday standing behind President Sally Kornbluth amid backlash to her testimony at a House hearing on campus antisemitism Tuesday. Kornbluth was asked by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) if a call for genocide against Jewish people would constitute harassment on MIT’s campus. Kornbluth said it would have to be targeted at individuals and pervasive, as well as require an investigation. Her answer, along with similar answers from the presidents of Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania, sparked bipartisan outrage and calls for all of them to resign. The House has also launched an investigation into all three schools regarding the learning environment on campus and disciplinary policies. “The MIT Corporation chose Sally to be our president for her excellent academic leadership, her judgment, her integrity, her moral compass, and her ability to unite our community around MIT’s core values,” the Executive Committee of the MIT Corporation said in their statement after the investigation was announced. “She has done excellent work in leading our community, including in addressing antisemitism, Islamophobia, and other forms of hate, all of which we reject utterly at MIT. She has our full and unreserved support,” it added. Some free speech advocates have said the answers of the presidents at the hearing were correct according to the Constitution but say that defense isn’t working due to arguable history regarding the universities’ actions towards students and speakers with unpopular opinions.
WHO upgrades BA.2.86 to COVID-19 variant of interest as US proportions grow -- The World Health Organization (WHO) last week reclassified the Omicron BA.2.86 variant—and its offshoots, including JN.1—as a variant of interest as global proportions grow, including in the United States, where it now makes up about 9% of circulating viruses, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today. The WHO's Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Evolution had initially classified the highly mutated BA.2.86 subvariant as a variant under monitoring in the middle of August. At the end of October and into the first week of November, BA.2.86 and its related viruses made up 8.9% of global sequences, a substantial rise from early October, when it constituted only 1.8%, the WHO said in its latest risk assessment. The immune escape potential for BA.2.86 will vary by country, based on other circulating variants, population immunity, and vaccine coverage, but it won't likely be as dramatic as when Omicron emerged in Delta's wake, the WHO said. Studies on the blood of patients who had breakthrough Omicron infections, including XBB viruses, suggest robust neutralizing activity against BA.2.86, a promising sign that updated vaccines will provide added protection by expanding B-cell protection. The WHO added that T-cell memory is reported to be highly durable and cross-reactive to BA.2.86, hinting at sustained protection against severe disease. Though BA.2.86 has the potential to cause surges in infections, there's no indication that the disease will be more severe than other variants. So far there is no sign of a change in clinical presentation, but the experts added that data are currently limited.The public health risk is currently low, and the emergence of BA.2.86 isn't likely to increase the burden on national health systems, the advisers said.The CDC said that, since it first weighed in on BA.2.86 in August, proportions have slowly grown and now account for 5% to 15% of circulating viruses, a percentage that will likely grow. In a separate assessment, however, the agency added that BA.2.86 and its relatives—including JN.1—don't appear to be driving increases in cases and hospitalizations. JN.1 is still below the 1% threshold for the CDC to plot it on its projection graphs, so it is therefore included under the BA.2.86 umbrella.The CDC said it agrees with the WHO's latest risk assessment that the public health risk is low compared to other circulating variants, based on limited available evidence.Meanwhile, a few other variants show rising proportions, the CDC said today. They include HV.1, now at 31.7%, HK.3, JD.1.1, and JG.3.In its latest data updates today, which cover the week ending November 18, the CDC reported more rises in its severity indicators, with hospitalizations up 9.7% and deaths up 8.3%.For hospitalizations, a limited number of counties are in the high category, most of them in the Midwest. For deaths, a few states had slightly elevated levels, including Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio.Early indicators declined or held mainly stable. Emergency department visits for COVID rose 1.8%, while test positivity declined 1.7% to a national level of 8.2%—higher in the Midwest and Mountain West than in other parts of the country. New Mexico has the highest emergency department visit level, which is only at the moderate category.
CDC Warns of BA.2.86 'Pirola' Variant Rising in US -- Omicron variant BA.2.86—first detected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in August—appears to be picking up steam in the U.S., the agency announced Monday. The most recent variant proportions data from the CDC show BA.2.86 (dubbed “Pirola”) making up just under 9% of cases in the U.S.—a threefold increase since two weeks ago when the variant made up 3% of cases. However, these are rough calculations; the CDC estimates that BA.2.86 could make up between 5% and 15% of all cases, currently. Despite BA.2.86’s increase, the CDC said that the variant “does not appear to be driving increases in infections or hospitalizations” in the U.S. and that current tests, treatments, and vaccines are all expected to be effective against the variant. In addition to BA.2.86, the CDC noted that cases of another variant—JN.1—are also expected to rise, though it’s still accounting for less than 1% of cases currently. However, both variants are still considered a low public health risk. BA.2.86 appears to have descended from BA.2, known commonly as “stealth Omicron,” which was the dominant variant in the U.S. in early- to mid-2022.“You can think of [BA.2.86] as a grandchild of Omicron,” William Schaffner, MD, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told Health.Compared to previous variants, BA.2.86 has a large number of mutations—more than 30 mutations that differentiate it from BA.2, and more than 35 mutations than XBB.1.5, another Omicron variant.These mutations raised concerns among scientists since they could make BA.2.86 better able to evade previous immunity from vaccines or prior infection. It’s because of this that the CDC warned BA.2.86 might be better at causing breakthrough infections, or new cases in people who’ve already had COVID or been vaccinated. Despite these mutations, BA.2.86 seems to be relatively similar to existing variants in real-world situations.“This virus is a milder variant, but it looks to be just as contagious as [other Omicron variants],” said Schaffner. “Its infectiousness is about the same, its transmissibility, its contagiousness, and its severity is about the same—namely, it has not produced an increase in severe infections.”As far as symptoms of BA.2.86 go, the CDC said it’s not currently possible to know if the variant produces symptoms different from other variants. However, symptoms of COVID-19 tend to be similar regardless of variant and often include fever or chills, cough, fatigue, muscle or body aches, and headache.
Distinct evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB and BA.2.86 lineages combining increased fitness and antibody evasion-- Abstract: The unceasing circulation of SARS-CoV-2 leads to the continuous emergence of novel viral sublineages. Here, we isolated and characterized XBB.1, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.9.1, XBB.1.16.1, EG.5.1.1, EG.5.1.3, XBF, BA.2.86.1 and JN.1 variants, representing >80% of circulating variants in November 2023. The XBB subvariants carry few but recurrent mutations in the spike, whereas BA.2.86.1 and JN.1 harbor >30 additional changes. These variants replicated in IGROV-1 but no longer in Vero E6 and were not markedly fusogenic. They potently infected nasal epithelial cells, with EG.5.1.3 exhibiting the highest fitness. Antivirals remained active. Neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses from vaccinees and BA.1/BA.2-infected individuals were markedly lower compared to BA.1, without major differences between variants. An XBB breakthrough infection enhanced NAb responses against both XBB and BA.2.86 variants. JN.1 displayed lower affinity to ACE2 and higher immune evasion properties compared to BA.2.86.1. Thus, while distinct, the evolutionary trajectory of these variants combines increased fitness and antibody evasion.
US COVID activity jumps as JN.1 expands, brisk flu and RSV levels continue - The proportion of JN.1 Omicron subvariant detections jumped dramatically last week, which could supercharge a rise in COVID-19 activity as the United States approaches its winter holiday weeks, according to updates today from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).Also, the CDC today reported more steady rises in flu activity, especially in the Southeast and South-Central regions, as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity across the nation remains elevated. In a video message posted on Twitter earlier this week, CDC Director Mandy Cohen, MD, MPH, said it's not too late to be vaccinated against the three respiratory viruses for those who haven't already, and she urged people to take additional measures like avoiding sick people, washing hands, improving ventilation, and wearing a mask. JN.1 is proving to be the fastest-growing member of the BA.2.86 family, and variant trackers have projected that it could trigger the next COVID surges. Some countries in Europe have already reported sharp JN.1 spikes.Today in its latest variant proportion update, the CDC singled out JN.1 from under the BA.2.86 umbrella, showing that over the last 2 weeks, the JN.1 level jumped from 8.1% to 21.4%. Also, JN.1 is now the second-most commonly detected variant, led only by HV.1, which is part of the XBB.1.9.2 lineage.In a separate update on JN.1 today, the CDC said the continued growth of JN.1 suggests it is either more transmissible or better at evading the immune system. However, it added that there's no evidence that it poses an increased risk compared to other variants.The CDC said it's not known to what extent JN.1 is contributing to increases under way in December but said COVID activity is likely to increase over the next month and that lab data suggest the updated COVID vaccine protects against JN.1 and other variants.Meanwhile, the CDC's two severity indicators for COVID—hospitalizations and deaths—both showed notable rises over the past week, with hospitalizations up 17.6% and deaths up 25% compared to the week before, still at a lower rate than the CDC saw in November 2022. For hospitalizations, moderate levels were reported, mostly in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions, with pockets in parts of some states at the high level, such as Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.For deaths, states reporting some of the biggest increases last week included Alabama, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, and West Virginia. In its weekly respiratory virus snapshot, the CDC said COVID-19 is still the main driver of viral respiratory deaths.The CDC's early indicators also showed rises, with test positivity up 0.9% and emergency department visits up 4%. Test positivity was higher in the Midwest, Mountain West, and Northeast than in other parts of the country. And of ED visits for COVID, infants and seniors had the highest levels, with levels also elevated for young children.Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 tracking, another early indicator, continued to show high levels, especially in the Midwest.As health systems brace for more COVID activity, seasonal flu activity continues to rise in most areas, with all 10 regions either at or above their baselines for flulike illness outpatient visits, the CDC said today in itsweekly flu update. Virus testing at public health labs shows that influenza A makes up 80% of positive samples, and of subtyped viruses, 2009 H1N1 is still dominant, at 74.1%.Flu hospitalizations are still low but are rising, with the highest levels in seniors, followed by adults ages 50 to 64 and children ages 4 and younger.Four more pediatric flu deaths were reported last week, raising the season's total to 12. All occurred in November, three involving H1N1 and one due to influenza B.For RSV, hospitalizations remain elevated in children but are on the rise in older adults, the CDC said in its weekly respiratory virus snapshot. It noted that only 15.9% of adults who are eligible to be vaccinated against RSV had been immunized.
New COVID variant JN.1 fuels eighth wave of mass infection in the US - On Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated their two-week projections for the proportions of each SARS-CoV-2 variant spreading across the United States. They estimated that over the past two weeks JN.1, a descendant of the highly-mutated Omicron BA.2.86 subvariant (nicknamed “Pirola”) which carries the L455S mutation on the spike protein, suddenly accounted for almost a quarter of all genetically sequenced cases, fast outpacing even HV.1 whose ancestor is the EG.5.1 (XBB) lineage. The sudden emergence of JN.1 as its own distinct variant, accounting for 21.4 percent of all infections and set to become dominant over the next week, marks the fourth time that the CDC has deliberately concealed the emergence of a new, dangerous variant, following the previous cover-ups of BQ.1, XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.6. Each cover-up has been in violation of the agency’s own reporting guidelines, which stipulate that whenever a subvariant surpasses 1 percent of sequenced cases, it must be delineated in the Variant Proportions tracker. This evidently took place with JN.1 nearly a month ago, during the week ending November 11. On November 27, 2023, the CDC wrote, “In these estimates and projections, offshoots of BA.2.86, including JN.1, are grouped with BA.2.86. JN.1 is still below the one percent threshold in weighted estimates, which is why it is shown grouped with BA.2.86.” This was a clear and obvious lie. Yesterday, Jay Weiland, in response to this obfuscation, wrote on his social media, “I think it is time for the CDC and CDC Director to speak openly and honestly about JN.1 (Pirola). Just stick to the facts. It’s growing quickly, it is contributing to increases in cases and hospitalizations, and it will accelerate in coming weeks.” Despite the CDC suggesting that JN.1 was not contributing to hospitalizations, his data indicate otherwise. While Pirola was first discovered in August and was climbing steadily, Dave McNally, a UK data scientist, caught the first glimpse of JN.1 in September. Shortly after, another US based data scientist, Jay Weiland, began tracking JN.1 in France over several weeks, demonstrating this new variant had a more significant growth advantage than its parent. True to form, rather than heeding these concerning developments, the CDC once more delayed updating crucial data on their COVID dashboard, waiting until after the massive Thanksgiving holiday travels had ended and then only after experts in the field had begun to criticize them for not taking account of JN.1’s rapid rise to global dominance. The CDC’s latest cover-up coincides with the growing eighth wave of mass infection across the US, as shown in the latest data from Biobot Analytics on Sars-CoV-2 wastewater levels. Community transmission has doubled since mid-October and accelerated since the Thanksgiving holidays. While the Midwest and Eastern regions are rapidly climbing, the South and West are also seeing a steady rise in levels.
Study: School air sampling worked as well as other methods in tracking COVID, flu - Air sampling was as effective in monitoring COVID-19 and influenza A (IAV) activity as three other methods in a Wisconsin school district from September 2022 to January 2023, according to a study published today in JAMA Network Open. University of Wisconsin researchers compared the effectiveness of four parallel COVID-19 and IAV tracking methods in the Oregon School District, which serves 4,114 K-12 students in seven schools, in fall 2022 and a brief period after winter break. The team compared air sampling with home-based reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, daily cause-specific absenteeism, and school-based rapid antigen testing (RAT).The researchers analyzed cartridges from air samplers placed in communal areas (eg, cafeterias) at each school twice weekly for IAV and SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR. RAT for COVID-19 and IAV began in August 2021 and is ongoing."As community-based SARS-CoV-2 testing programs waned, alternatives for monitoring virus activity emerged," the study authors wrote. "Kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) schools provided excellent venues for surveillance given their role in respiratory virus amplification."Among 334 student participants, 114 IAV (34.1%) and 32 SARS-CoV-2 (9.6%) cases were identified via home-based RT-PCR. Absenteeism monitoring documented 1,425 days out of school for IAV and 883 for COVID-19.Of 200 RATs conducted in school nurses' offices at the same time, 24 (12.0%) were positive for flu, and 9 (4.5%) were positive for COVID-19. Air sampling detected IAV during 43 of 154 school weeks and 12 of 22 weeks and detected COVID-19 during 101 of 154 school weeks and all 22 weeks. All four detection methods showed a peak in IAV activity from December 11 to 24, 2022, followed by a steep drop after winter break. Air sampling detected SARS-CoV-2 in at least two schools per week throughout the study, and home-based RT-PCR and school-based RAT also continuously identified low to moderate levels during the same period.The researchers noted that while all monitoring methods were equivalent, the two viruses behaved differently, with SARS-CoV-2 remaining stable throughout the study period and IAV peaking and then receding in winter."These contrasting activity patterns were reflected in each surveillance platform, except for RAT postwinter break, which did not detect SARS-CoV-2 activity," they wrote. "Use of complementary surveillance tools in K-12 schools, including air sampling, may enhance detection of respiratory virus outbreaks."
Using both nose, throat swabs boosts sensitivity of rapid COVID testing - Today in JAMA Network Open, a randomized clinical trial shows that a single healthcare worker (HCW)-collected throat swab had significantly higher sensitivity for COVID-19 rapid antigen testing (RAT) than an HCW-collected nose swab during Omicron predominance, but self-collected nose swabs were more sensitive than self-collected throat swabs among participants with symptoms. For the trial, a team led by Copenhagen University Hospital researchers in Denmark randomly assigned 2,674 people aged 16 and older being tested for COVID-19 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to self- or HCW-collected throat and nasal swabs for RAT in February and March 2022. Four samples (two HCW-collected nose and throat swabs for RT-PCR and two self- or HCW-collected swabs for RAT) were collected per participant at two urban COVID-19 outpatient test centers in Copenhagen, and additional HCW-collected throat and nose swabs were used as the reference standard. The median participant age was 40 years, 57.4% were women, 40.2% had symptoms, and 30.9% tested positive for COVID-19 on RT-PCR from throat (4.2%) or nasal (1.8%) specimens or both (25.0%). Throat specimens may be key to infection The researchers said that RATs have been widely used because they are inexpensive and available over the counter for home use, allowing early detection and isolation of infectious people. "However, the rate of false-negative home-based rapid antigen test results has been widely debated during the Omicron variant surge, and it has been suggested that throat swab specimens could improve test sensitivity," they wrote. The authors noted that while health officials in Canada and the United Kingdom recommend using both nasal and throat specimens for RT-PCR, the US Food and Drug Administration authorized RAT for use with nasal specimens only.
CDC Director Cohen Must Reject HICPAC’s Shoddily Evidenced, Unreviewable, Statistically Invalid, Non-Performing, Conflicted, and Un-Peer-Reviewed Infection Control “Guidance” by Lambert Strether ==I think that empowering the Covid-conscious by maximizing the attack surface for assaults on the CDC’s Hospital Infection Prevention and Control Advisory Committee (HICPAC)’s anti-mask, anti-science infection control “Guidance”[1] (“CDC Advised To Weaken Infection Protections As Mysterious Pneumonia Brews Overseas“) is important, tactically, just now, and so I’m gathering as much information as I can, here, in one place. And for those still toasting the marshmallows of public administration, this post should be a real barn-burner. (For background, previous NC posts on HICPAC: November 9, August 17, August 14, July 20, and July 10.) Here is a roadmap to the post. I will begin by briefly explaining the HICPAC process, showing the steps by which guidance is developed, where we are in the process, and the documents involved.Next, I will look at:
- (1) HICPAC’s shoddy evaluation of evidence;
- (2) HICPAC’s “Evidence Reviews”, unreviewable by the public.
- (3) raising statistical issues with every engineering-hating gatekeeper’s favorite tool for minimization, the Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT).
- (4) I will show that HICPAC is conflicted.
- Then I will examine two mechanisms for ensuring that guidance as sloppy and degraded as HICPAC’s never sees the light of day:
- (5) Performance Reviews under the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA), and
- (6) the Office for Management and Budget (OMB)’s “Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review.” (These last two items are, so far as I know, original to this post, so after dumping a suitable truckload of salts, bureaucratic knife-fighters and public-spirited lawyers may wish to see if they can be developed further, if only as diversions.)
If you’re already outraged, you can jump directly to the Conclusion, where there are six action items for you.
Study shows infants exposed to COVID in utero at risk for developmental delay - A new study based on a cohort of Brazilian infants shows those who were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infections in the uterus may be at an increased risk for developmental delays in the first year of life. The study appeared yesterday in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Women in northern Brazil were assessed from April 2020 to July 2021. Researchers compared outcomes among a case group of 69 children who were exposed to lab-confirmed COVID-19 in utero compared to 68 children who served as controls, and had no known exposure to COVID-19 in utero. "All mothers were unvaccinated at the time of cohort inclusion, and maternal demographics were similar in the two groups," the authors wrote. At 12 months, 20.3% of COVID-exposed children and 5.9% of the controls received a diagnosis of neurodevelopmental delay (risk ratio, 3.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 9.95). For the exposed group, the prevalence of neurodevelopment impairment using the Ages & Stages Questionnaire (ASQ-3) was 35.7% at 4 months, 7.0% at 6 months, and 32.1% at 12 months. Delays seen at 4, 12 months "Over 50% of the SARS-CoV-2 exposed infants presented ASQ-3 scores below the expected cutoff, with about half classified with neurodevelopmental delay, mainly at 4 and 12 months,” the authors wrote.
COVID-19 late in pregnancy linked to severe maternal health problems -- A study yesterday in Open Forum Infectious Diseases shows women who have COVID-19 infections within a week before giving birth are at an increased risk for severe maternal morbidity (SMM) events, including acute renal failure and adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).The authors used electronic records of 93,624 deliveries occurring from March 11, 2020, to July 1, 2021, to look for positive COVID-19 tests and 21 SMM conditions.Compared to uninfected pregnancies, the adjusted risk of SMM was 2.22 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97 to 2.48) among those infected less than 7 days before delivery, and 1.66 times higher (95% CI, 1.23 to 2.08) among those infected 7 to 30 days before delivery."Those with SARS-CoV-2 infection within 7 days of delivery were more commonly younger (15-24 years old), Hispanic or non-Hispanic Black, resided in a rural area, had lower household income (<$40,000), and delivered after August 2020 compared to those without SARS-CoV-2 infections," the authors wrote.Risk of acute respiratory distress 13 times higher. At a population-level, the authors estimate that 2% of SMM cases can be attributed to SARS-CoV-2 infection during the 7 days prior to delivery.The highest risk associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection for ARDS (adjusted risk ratio 13.24; 95% CI, 12.86 to 13.61). The authors said their findings should result in a more urgent push to vaccinate pregnant women, especially Black and Hispanic patients.Study spotlights how COVID-19 admissions burdened ICUs - COVID-19 hospital admissions greatly affected occupancy rates of intensive care units (ICUs) across 45 US states, according to a new study in JAMA Health Forum. The study looked at hospital occupancy rates for each week in 2020 at 3,960 hospitals, as recorded by the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases, and compared the number of occupied beds to the same week in 2019. Each week was categorized based on the number of COVID-19 admissions per 100 beds, with 15 admissions per 100 considered high COVID-19 activity, and less than 1 per 100 considered low. Unsurprisingly, overall hospital occupancy levels decreased during weeks with low COVID-19 admissions and increased during weeks with high COVID-19, with ICUs most affected. ICU occupancy rates increased 67.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.5% to 75.3%) during weeks with more than 15 COVID admissions per 100 beds. Of note, occupancy decreased for surgical patients when COVID-19 admissions increased, as many surgeries were put on hold during the early months of the pandemic, by as much as 43.1% (95% CI, 38.6% to 47.2%). Though most periods of high COVID-19 admissions lasted less than a month—with 34.3% lasting 1 week, 49.8% lasting no more than 2 weeks, and 63.1% lasting no more than 3 weeks—they could have greatly affected patient care, the authors said. Large increases in ICU occupancy may have strained ICU staff, possibly reducing quality of care for critically ill patients. "Large increases in ICU occupancy may have strained ICU staff, possibly reducing quality of care for critically ill patients. This result is in line with increased in-hospital mortality during COVID-19 surges, documented by previous studies," they concluded.
Viral surge in late 2022 resulted in longer pediatric emergency room wait times - Parents faced longer wait times and repeat visits to emergency departments (EDs) for pediatric respiratory illnesses in the fall of 2022, according to a study yesterdaybased on Michigan data and published in JAMA Network Open.In the fall of 2022, many hospitals and clinics across the country reported a surge of pediatric respiratory illness, fueled by influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19.During 2020 and 2021, COVID-19 mitigation efforts had limited the spread of seasonal viruses by as much as 40%, the authors wrote."To date little research has described how health system strain affects acute care for children with viral and respiratory conditions across diverse hospital-based EDs," the authors explained. They used the metrics of ED wait times, ED length of stay (LOS), and ED revisits to examine how the viral surge affected pediatric emergency department visits in 25 Michigan EDs from September 1 through December 31, 2022.Prolonged wait times were defined as more than 4 hours, and prolonged ED LOS was defined as more than 12 hours.There were 301,688 pediatric visits for viral and respiratory illness at the 25 EDs included in the study during that time frame, an increase of 71.8% over the 4 preceding months and 15.7% over the same period in 2021.The authors said that, in all hospitals, the surge began in September and peaked in the later weeks of November. Highest-volume days at children's EDs were associated with increased wait times longer than 4 hours (odds ratio [OR], 4.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.79 to 4.42), LOS longer than 12 hours (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.48), and ED revisits (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.28 to1.53).In rural children's EDs revisits resulted in hospital admission 9.7% of the time, while at children's hospitals 26.2% of ED revisits resulted in hospitalization.
Analysis shows racial disparities in COVID ICU admissions in California --A new retrospective analysis of the California State Inpatient Database during 2020 shows Hispanic residents were disproportionately affected by the pandemic, with both the highest mortality rates and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions throughout the state.The study, published in Scientific Reports, and adds to the growing body of literature showing significant racial disparities during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.All hospitalizations for adults ages 18 and older were included in the final analysis. Among a total of 87,934 COVID-19 hospitalizations, Hispanics accounted for 56.5% of patients, followed by White (27.3%), Asian, Pacific Islander, Native American (9.9%), and Black (6.3%) residents of California.When compared with White counterparts, Hispanic patients had a higher mortality risk, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 0.96).Both Hispanic and Black patients had significantly greater odds of ICU admission compared to Whites (odds ratio [OR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.67 to 1.74 for Hispanics and OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.78 for Blacks).Compared with other races and ethnicities, hospitalized Hispanics were also significantly younger, with 43.9% in the age group 45 to 64 years, while among Whites (46.5%) and Asian, Pacific Islander, Native Americans (40.0%), most hospitalized patients were in the age group 65 to 84 years.The authors of the study said the proportion of comorbidities, such as diabetes mellitus, obesity, and liver disease, were highest among Hispanics."In this study of COVID-19 hospitalizations in California, the risk of all-cause in-hospital mortality was significantly higher among Hispanics and associated with older age, male sex, and comorbidities," the authors concluded.
Excess deaths soared in US prisons during first year of COVID-19 -- The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a dramatic increase in deaths among jailed Americans, a new study inScience Advances shows, with deaths among prisoners 3.4 times greater than in the general population in 2020. Overall, total mortality increased 77% in 2020 relative to 2019, the authors said. Though the Bureau of Justice Statistics reported 2,490 deaths attributable to COVID-19 (suspected or confirmed as a cause of death) from March 2020 to February 2021 across 49 states, that rate of 1.5 deaths per 1,000 prisoners does not take into account how and if the pandemic resulted in excess mortality in prisons. The authors of the study argued that excess mortality is a better measure of the pandemic’s impact on mortality. "Prisons imposed policies attempting to mitigate infection—such as lockdowns and restricted movements, programming suspensions, visitor prohibitions, limited communication with loved ones, and solitary confinement in lieu of medical isolation—all of which increased stress, mental health challenges, and violence exacerbating the risk of deaths due to unnatural causes, such as drug overdoses, suicide, and violence," they wrote. Using public records and data from state departments of corrections, the authors estimated excess total mortality for 2020 compared to 2019 and prior years, an information gathering process that took more than 2 years. "Compared to existing work focusing on specific states or types of deaths, this research provides a much more comprehensive nationwide understanding of the full extent of deaths in U.S. prisons during the pandemic's onset," said first author Naomi Sugie, PhD, in a press release from the University of California-Irvine. "It also shows that some Departments of Corrections agencies were quite successful at limiting excess deaths while others experienced very high mortality increases, including deaths for both natural and unnatural causes." Excess mortality rates differed greatly by state, the authors found, with Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Utah, and West Virginia experiencing a doubling, or more, of their mortality rate in 2020 compared to 2019. By comparison, Maryland, New York, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Washington, DC, had very small differences in mortality rates from 2019 to 2020.
Small study finds brain alterations after COVID Omicron infection - Researchers in China report thinning of the gray matter and other changes in certain parts of the brain in 61 men after COVID-19 Omicron infection. For the study, published late last week in JAMA Network Open, the researchers evaluated 61 men before and after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in January 2023. The men had been part of a larger cohort who had undergone magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neuropsychiatric screenings before infection in August and September 2022. Average age was 43 years. The researchers collected MRI and neuropsychiatric data after COVID-19 infection and tracked clinical symptoms for 3 months. The average interval from infection and MRI scans was 22 days. Twenty-nine participants received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, 17 received three, and 15 didn't report their vaccination status. After infection, Beck Anxiety Inventory scores were significantly higher (median, 4.50 to 4.00), while depressive distress scores were significantly lower (median, 18.00 to 16.00). The most common symptoms after infection were fever, headache, fatigue, muscle pain, cough, and shortness of breath. Of 17 participants who completed 3-month follow-up, fever (64.7% vs 11.8%), muscle pain (58.8% vs 17.6%), and cough (70.6% vs 23.5%) had improved significantly since infection. In certain regions of the brain, gray-matter thickness had thinned, and the ratio of right hippocampus volume to total intracranial volume was significantly reduced after infection. Gray-matter thinness was negatively correlated with anxiety scores, and the ratio of the right hippocampus to total intracranial volume was positively correlated with Word Fluency Test scores. "In this cohort study of male patients infected with the Omicron variant, the duration of symptoms in multiple systems after infection was short," the study authors wrote. "Changes in gray matter thickness and subcortical nuclear volume injury were observed in the post-Omicron period." The results, they said, shine a light on the emotional and cognitive mechanisms of Omicron infection, show its link to nervous system alterations, and confirm that imaging can enable early detection and treatment of neurologic complications.
Geriatricians, Look Out for Patients With Long COVID --Long COVID, an often debilitating condition, has left doctors scrambling to find treatments and diagnostic tools. The problem is even more complicated for residents of nursing homes and long-term care facilities, many of whom are already experiencing a health decline. A recent study published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society found that patients who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 struggled with cognitive issues and were more dependent on the staff for an average of 9 months after infection. "Lasting effects might not be as noticeable with patients in nursing homes — a lot of them have impaired baseline function," said Sophie Clark, MD, geriatrician and assistant professor at the University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, and the first author of the study. "It's hard because some of these patients are not able to report symptoms as well as younger, healthier patients. If something is going on in a young person, it's clearer. In an older population, the picture is muddier." Clark and her team observed 171 residents at two facilities in Michigan. About half had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between March 2020 and October 2021; the rest did not contract the virus. Researchers measured the level of assistance patients needed for tasks like dressing and bathing, along with their performance on cognitive tests, and compared the results to their pre-pandemic baseline. Survivors of COVID-19 continued to experience its effects for an average of 9 months, and 30% of those infected died prior to the 1-year follow-up — nearly twice as many deaths as in the noninfected group. "Before the pandemic, the two groups scored about the same on both tests," said Clark, who at the time of the study was a fellow at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. "But the patients who tested positive for COVID-19 showed a sudden decline [in physical and cognitive function] after infection." Most participants in the study were women who were aged over 80 years and identified as White and non-Hispanic. Among them, half were diagnosed with dementia, and every participant had multiple chronic conditions. Almost all those who contracted COVID-19 during the study period had not received prior vaccination. Many people with long COVID develop symptoms such as brain fog, extreme fatigue, and severe headaches that linger for months or even years. One in 10 people who have COVID-19 develop the post-COVID syndrome. The study brings to light the need for ongoing research on long COVID among older patients and those in nursing homes, according to Lona Mody, MD, MSc, another author of the paper and interim chief of the Division of Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. "It's important to set expectations for physicians who are working with the patients that there could be functional and cognitive decline after COVID-19 infection, such that patients might need more help from caregivers," Mody said. "With each circulating strain, the outcomes could be different."
Long COVID Rates Appear to Be Decreasing | Scientific American - Tens of millions of people in the U.S. have struggled with long COVID: a suite of symptoms that can persist long after an initial COVID infection and impact one’s day-to-day life. Typically, these “long haulers” experience fatigue, difficulty concentrating and joint pain. At its worst, however, the syndrome can leave them bedridden.Now studies suggest the rates of long COVID may be dropping. Although the investigations were not designed to assess the reason for this trend, scientists suspect the downturn is a result of increased immunity to SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID), milder variants of that pathogen and improved treatments. It is a welcome reprieve, but the decline does not help the millions of people who are already suffering from long COVID. Moreover experts warn that the risk is still not zero. And without a clear explanation for the downward trend, it is unclear whether it will continue.“You have to be vigilant,” says Paul Elliott, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London’s School of Public Health. “You can’t just relax these days and be done.”There is reason for hope, however. Elliott and his team recently reported that people infected during the pandemic’s Omicron wave were 88 percent less likely to develop long COVID, compared with those infected with the original strain that emerged in Wuhan, China. The research, published in October in Nature Communications, is the latest in a growing number of studies that point to a downswing in the debilitating condition. This summer, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted that the proportion of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 who went on to develop long COVID dropped from 18.9 percent in June 2022 to 11 percent in January 2023. And just a few months before that European researchers found that the risk of long COVID among cancer patients fell from 19.1 percent in 2020 to 6.2 percent in early 2022. Other studiesshow similar findings.Although the studies disagree on absolute numbers, experts argue that the downhill trend is real—that the likelihood of any individual developing long COVID has fallen since the beginning of the pandemic. The question is why.To start, greater population immunity—whether from infection, vaccination or both—has likely provided protection against lingering symptoms. There is no question that vaccines have provided a strong defense against the virus over the past three years. Andmultiple studies suggest that vaccination also reduces the chances of developing long COVID—especially for those who stay up-to-date on their shots. The study on cancer patients, for example, found that the risk of developing long COVID was highest before vaccines against the disease were available and that participants who had received a booster were less likely to develop long COVID than those who were only partially vaccinated. Moreover a study published just last week found that three or more doses of a COVID vaccine reduced the risk of long COVID by 73 percent, compared with 21 percent after just one dose. And while research is inconclusive on whether repeat infections confer protection, a single infection mixed with vaccination—otherwise known as hybrid immunity—likely reduces future infections and disease.“At the population level, we are developing immune responses to the virus,” says Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at the Yale School of Medicine. “The baseline immunity is different from when the pandemic first started.”We are also dealing with different viral variants. Many scientists believe that the intrinsic features of the different SARS-CoV-2 strains make them more or less likely to cause long COVID. Thus, many long COVID studies broke their data down not by infection date but by the dominant variant at the time. And some suggested that the severity of long COVID was far worse for those infected at the very start of the pandemic. One investigation compared Swiss hospital workers in May 2022—roughly six months after the Omicron variant first appeared—with workers who had been infected with the original strain in 2020. It found that the latter had far more lingering symptoms than those who were infected more recently. “I really think there is something to this variant, to Omicron, that makes it less aggressive,” says Philipp Kohler, an infectious disease specialist at St. Gallen Cantonal Hospital in Switzerland and co-senior author of the study.In some ways, the findings are not a surprise. During acute illness, Omicron is much less likely than earlier strains to land patients in the hospital with severe symptoms, which researchers know is a major risk factor for long COVID. Mild cases can also lead to long COVID, however, causing scientists to argue that another factor is at play. One hypothesis suggested in animal studies is that Omicron targets cells in the upper respiratory tract—causing coldlike symptoms in the nose and throat—whereas earlier forms of the virus targeted the lower respiratory tract and even involved other organs, where they continued to replicate and cause long-term symptoms.
Study finds long-COVID symptoms fluctuate over time, challenging treatment approaches In a study posted to The Lancet, researchers followed up individuals with long COVID (LC), which involves persistent symptoms beyond four weeks of a suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection, throughout a longitudinal study. They found that more than half of these patients switched between different levels of clinical severities during the study period.Researchers estimate that 1.9 million people in the UK and more than 200 million people worldwide have LC, but it is still not well understood. LC is thought to affect 10 organ systems and is associated with 200 symptoms, including breathlessness, pain, fatigue, dizziness, sleep problems, anxiety, depression, allergic reactions, skin rashes, and post-traumatic stress. Cognitive problems or 'brain fog' are the most well-known symptom of LC.In UK-based clinical studies, patients were asked to record their symptoms on the COVID-19 Yorkshire Rehabilitation Scale (C19-YRS) so that clinicians could understand how patients experience this condition. They score their overall health (OH), functional disability (FD), and symptom severity (SS).A study on hospitalized LC patients found that they experienced impairment of varying severities and reported experiencing, on average, nine symptoms persistently even five months after they were discharged. Another cross-sectional assessment found that some patients who were not hospitalized also experienced severe cases of LC. However, whether the severity of LC fluctuated over time and if there were correlations between the three domains of the C19-YRS.This study's findings show how symptoms experienced by more than half of LC patients can fluctuate over time, which has significant implications for healthcare interventions and self-management. The co-existence of different severity types for most symptoms indicates common underlying mechanisms for LC, including immune activation, immune dysregulation, endothelial damage, viral persistence, and dysautonomia.Classifying LC conditions as mild, moderate, and severe can improve patient interventions. The authors recommend monitoring mild cases through primary care services and providing specialist care for moderate and severe cases. Such interventions should consider the dynamic and fluctuating nature of LC symptoms."Long COVID should be assessed and evaluated in the light of the fluctuant nature of the condition and not necessarily assumed always to have the same type or severity of the symptoms."
True prevalence of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study – Nature -- Abstract: Long-COVID prevalence estimates vary widely and should take account of symptoms that would have occurred anyway. Here we determine the prevalence of symptoms attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection, taking account of background rates and confounding, in a nationwide population cohort study of 198,096 Scottish adults. 98,666 (49.8%) had symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 99,430 (50.2%) were age-, sex-, and socioeconomically-matched and never-infected. While 41,775 (64.5%) reported at least one symptom 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection, this was also true of 34,600 (50.8%) of those never-infected. The crude prevalence of one or more symptom attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection was 13.8% (13.2%,14.3%), 12.8% (11.9%,13.6%), and 16.3% (14.4%,18.2%) at 6, 12, and 18 months respectively. Following adjustment for potential confounders, these figures were 6.6% (6.3%, 6.9%), 6.5% (6.0%, 6.9%) and 10.4% (9.1%, 11.6%) respectively. Long-COVID is characterised by a wide range of symptoms that, apart from altered taste and smell, are non-specific. Care should be taken in attributing symptoms to previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Flagship spinout Axcella collapses, leaving future of its long Covid drug uncertain - Boston Business Journal -- A Flagship Pioneering-backed biotech behind one of the only new drugs in development for long Covid is closing its doors. Axcella Health Inc. announced by way of securities filing late Monday that it would dissolve. The vast majority of shareholders voted in favor of the plan during a special meeting Monday, per the filing. Axcella did not offer any information about what would become of its intellectual property or its team. A spokesperson for Flagship, which founded the firm in 2008, declined to comment. Axcella's website directs inquiries to an accounting firm called Verdolino & Lowey, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment. By the end of the trading day, Axcella shares were down more than 15%, to 91 cents, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.7 million. Cambridge-based Axcella had been developing a drug called AXA1125 that it originally developed for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, an aggressive form of fatty liver disease. In 2021, the company began testing it in long Covid — formally known as PASC, short for post-acute sequelae of Covid-19 — believing that the drug, since it can improve bioenergetics, could help with the fatigue that's a hallmark of the post-viral syndrome. In August 2022, Axcella posted data that partially validated that theory: AXA1125 had managed to lower fatigue, as measured by a six-minute walk and a clinically validated questionnaire, in a 41-person midstage study. Three months later, Axcella reoriented itself around long Covid exclusively, abandoning its liver work and laying off about 85% of its staff in the process. It's been a mad dash since then. Axcella has been extremely low on cash for the last year, effectively living quarter to quarter. The company had $8.9 million cash on hand at the end of June, per its most recently quarterly filing. The company was in the process of putting together a 300-person trial in the U.S. and the U.K. to test AXA1125 as a long Covid treatment as of January, but it's not clear whether that ever came together. Axcella mentions no Phase 2b or Phase 3 trials in its recent quarterly filings, and no such study is listed in ClinicalTrials.gov, a federal database of clinical trials.
Pfizer and BioNTech Are Suing Poland Over Its Refusal to Pay for More COVID-19 Vaccines. Are They Also Suing Hungary? - Even by the normal standards of investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS), Pfizer and BioNtech’s lawsuit against the government of Poland for refusing to pay for more unwanted vaccines is especially egregious. Investor State Dispute Settlements, commonly abbreviated to ISDS, rightly have a bad rep, especially among the world’s poorer countries. ISDS clauses in bilateral or collective investment trade agreements effectively allow privately owned overseas corporations to sue entire nations if they feel that a law has lost them, or in some cases could lose them, money on their investment. It is what gives today’s predominantly corporate-friendly trade treaties their claws and their teeth. This is a topic we have covered both widely and in depth over the past decade. One of my own bailiwicks, Latin America, continues to top the investment arbitration caseload at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), accounting for 28% of the total of registered cases by June 2022. Even the world’s richest countries are beginning to fret about ISDS clauses, as Jomo Kwame Sundaram, a former UN Assistant Secretary General for Economic Development, documented in an article we cross-posted last month.But even by the normal standards of investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS), Pfizer and BioNtech’s lawsuit against the government of Poland over its refusal to continue paying for their COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is especially egregious, for reasons I will explain a little later. Starting this Wednesday, the suit will be heard in Belgium, the country where the EU Commission signed its notorious vaccine deal with Pfizer-BioNTech, worth up to $36 billion.The suit will take place as both companies report falling revenues and sliding profits. Public demand for their biggest selling product, the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines they co-developed, is a shadow of its former self, for obvious reasons. This has been reflected in their market performance: since their August 2021 peak, BioNtech’s shares are down almost 75% from their peak while Pfizer’s have fallen by half.The two companies are suing the Polish government for combined damages of 6 billion Polish zloty (€1.4 billion). In a statement to the British Medical Journal, Pfizer said the “formal proceedings follow a prolonged contractual breach, and lengthy discussions”: “Poland placed a binding order and purchased all the doses that are in dispute and agreed to a specific delivery schedule in respect of those doses. Poland has, however, refused to take delivery of those doses. Pfizer and BioNTech believe it is important that all parties respect their contractual obligations under the agreement that has facilitated and underpinned the successful European pandemic response.”Now, according to Dziennek Gazeta Prawna, the Polish financial newspaper that first broke the story about Pfizer and BioNTech’s lawsuit against Poland, Hungary has also stopped taking delivery of its Pfizer BioNtech vaccines and is also facing legal action. An article published in the newspaper on Monday claims that both Visegrad countries cited a force majeure clause in their vaccine contract. The war in Ukraine, they said, had led to millions of Ukrainian refugees flowing across their borders and into their towns and cities, draining their public coffers of much-needed funds (machine translated):
Report spotlights inequalities in COVID vaccine access in poorer nations --New global survey data published in Health Affairs shows that half of unvaccinated respondents said they wanted a COVID-19 vaccine but were not able to obtain the shots, suggesting that unmet supply needs still drives low vaccine uptake in many low- and middle-income countries. The survey came from 15,696 respondents in 17 countries in Africa and the Western Pacific. Surveys were conducted from May 2022 to January 2023. The authors of the report said the finding sheds light on accessibility and acceptability, what they call the twin barriers to COVID-19 vaccination. Nationally representative surveys included 8,518 responses from 10 Western Pacific countries (Cambodia, Fiji, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam), collected in May 2022 and January 2023, and 7,179 responses from 7 African countries (Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC], Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Uganda), collected in August 2022, the authors said. Respondents were asked about vaccine status and number of doses. "We estimated unmet immunization demand, as the dependent variable for regression, by using the question asking whether respondents would receive available COVID-19 vaccines for themselves," the authors wrote. "Respondents who replied 'definitely yes' or 'unsure but leaning towards yes' were treated as being willing to vaccinate." Those questions were given only to participants who said they were unvaccinated.
Nearly half of COVID survivors in Africa have lingering symptoms, data reveal - A systematic review and meta-analysis estimates a nearly 50% long-COVID rate months after infection in Africa, with psychiatric conditions the most common manifestations. Published today in Scientific Reports, the February 2023 literature search and analysis involved 25 observational, English language long-COVID studies with 29,213 infected African patients. Nearly half (48%) of the studies were from Egypt, the average patient age was 42 years (range, 7 to 73 years), 59.3% were females, and the median follow-up was 3 months. "In low-income countries, the estimates of its [long COVID's] incidence vary greatly due to a significant number of hidden infections (i.e., asymptomatic or undisclosed) and difficulties in accessing testing," the study authors wrote. The team, led by researchers from the University of Bari in Italy, found a long-COVID rate of 48.6%, with a predominance of psychiatric conditions, especially post-traumatic stress disorder (25.8%). The most common neurologic symptom was cognitive impairment (15%), and shortness of breath was the most common respiratory symptom (18.3%), followed by cough (10.7%). Other notable symptoms were loss of appetite (12.7%), weight loss (10.4%), fatigue (35.4%), and muscle pain (15.5%). A quarter (25.4%) of patients reported poor quality of life. The high incidence of fatigue is particularly worrisome because of its debilitating nature. "This is concerning because, in Africa, it has the potential to lead to important impairment in productivity and further loss of economic agency," the researchers wrote.
CDC detects no unusual pediatric pneumonia trends in US -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said its latest data on pediatric pneumonia show that levels for the youngest children, those ages 0 to 4, are expected for this time of year but are slightly higher for kids ages 5 and older.In a December 1 statement, the CDC said it is closely monitoring reports of increased respiratory illness activity around the world, including recent reports of elevated pediatric pneumonia levels in China and some European countries.In the United States for the week ending November 25, the CDC's National Syndromic Surveillance Program, which covers 78% of the country's emergency departments, showed pneumonia diagnoses for children as old as 1 was 1.7%, and for kids ages 2 to 4, the level was 2.4%. Both are in line with previous years.For children ages 5 to 17, the level was 1.5%, reflecting a slight increase, but similar to pre–COVID-19 pandemic years.Last week, Ohio's Warren County reported a rise in pediatric pneumonia cases in children ages 3 to 14 and emphasized that there is no evidence of a novel pathogen or a connection to other outbreaks. Also, Massachusetts health officials have reported a modest rise in pediatric pneumonia cases over the past few weeks, with no sign of a link to Mycoplasma pneumoniae , the Boston Herald reported, citing the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.Meanwhile, the CDC said lab analysis suggests that the small rise in pneumonia isn't caused by a new virus or other pathogen. "Instead, these increases are likely caused by viruses and bacteria we expect to see during the respiratory illness season."In South Korea, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency said the number of hospitalization forMycoplasma pneumonia cases have doubled over the past 4 weeks, mostly involving children ages 12 years and younger, the Korea Biomedical Review reported today. Pediatricians are raising concerns about a possible pediatric care crisis.Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said it is closely monitoring Mycoplasma hospitalizations in children, which it said are currently stable but are tracking higher than in August. The CHP said its illness trend monitoring shows that rhinovirus and enterovirus are the most commonly detected respiratory viruses.Meanwhile six countries in the European Union/ European Economic Area have reported recent increases inMycoplasma pneumoniae detections, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its latest weekly communicable disease report. Though it didn't name the countries, Denmark and the Netherlands have reported case rises.
US Salmonella cantaloupe outbreak doubles as CDC confirms new death The number of cases in an ongoing Salmonella outbreak tied to whole and cut-up cantaloupe has more than doubled—to 230 cases—a third death has been reported, and almost 100 people have been hospitalized, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said yesterday in an update.Since the CDC's previous update on November 30, 113 more illnesses have been confirmed, and 4 more states are affected, bringing the total to 38 states. At least 96 people have been hospitalized, including 35 new case-patients. The new outbreak-related death was in Oregon; the previous two were in Minnesota.Illness-onset dates range from October 16 to November 20. Patients range in age from infants to 100 years old, 54% are male, and 85% are White. Minnesota has the most cases (20), followed by Wisconsin (18), and Arizona (15)."The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely much higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses," the CDC said. "This is because many people recover without medical care and are not tested for Salmonella. In addition, recent illnesses may not yet be reported, as it usually takes 3 to 4 weeks to determine if a sick person is part of an outbreak." Officials have detailed multiple recalls related to the outbreak, including Malichita and Rudy brand whole cantaloupes. Brands included in those recalls are Trufresh, Crown Jewels, and Pacific Trellis. Affected whole cantaloupes might have a sticker that says "Malichita" or "Rudy," with the number 4050, and "Product of Mexico/produit du Mexique."
ECDC weighs in on wider risk from DRC mpox outbreak clade - Congo (DRC), the first clade 1 outbreak to involve sexual spread, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said there's no evidence that clade 1 is spreading outside of central Africa. Clade 1 is different than the clade 2 virus involved in the global outbreak, which is mainly linked to sexual spread among men who have sex with men (MSM). So far, genetic sequencing of viruses doesn't reflect any spread in European Union and European Economic Area countries. The current overall threat to the region is low, the group said. However, it added that the risk from clade 1 infections is higher in MSM who have multiple sexual partners than for the general population. In the at-risk population, prior immunity from a clade 2 infection or mpox vaccination will likely decrease the likelihood and impact of clade 1 infections, according to the ECDC. It urged countries to continue contact tracing and sharing detected sequences.
Study highlights complications of mpox, chickenpox co-infections -Almost 30% of mpox patients described in a retrospective study from Nigeria were co-infected with chickenpox. The study was published yesterday in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.Previous mpox outbreaks in endemic countries in Africa have involved co-infections with chickenpox, resulting in more severe symptoms and presentation. The authors of the study say the burden of chickenpox is not well-known in Nigeris, as it is not a notifiable disease and the vaccine is not included in the national immunization program.The study analyzed suspected mpox cases reported in six states in southern Nigeria from January 2022 to March 2023. Mpox and chickenpox were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction tests at hospitals where patients were diagnosed.Of 94 suspected case-patients, 56 (59.6%) had confirmed mpox. Of those with mpox, 28.6% (16 patients) also were co-infected with chickenpox.Compared to those who had mpox only, mpox/chickenpox co-infected patients were significantly more likely to report muscle pain (87.5% vs 57.5%), sore throat (68.8% vs 30.0%), fatigue (75.0% vs 45.0%), and complications (56.3% vs 22.5%).The average age of patients was 29 years, 60.7% were men, and 12.5% of patients identified as bisexual or other men who have sex with men. A total of 92.9% of patients had fever. All patients presented with an itchy rash, with 60.7% reporting that the rash began on their face.
Three countries report more polio cases -Three countries reported new polio cases this week, including Pakistan, which recorded another wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Pakistan's latest case—its sixth of the year—was reported from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the country's hot spot. GPEI said intensified efforts are under way in the province, focusing on its southern region to stop WPV1 transmission.Elsewhere, two African nations reported more vaccine-derived polio cases. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) reported 7 more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1) cases from two different provinces, raising that total to 90 for the year. Also, the country reported one more case involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), pushing that total to 109. Nigeria reported 12 more cVDPV2 cases, 5 each from Kebbi and Sokoto and 2 from Kaduna, raising the country's total to 55.
New FDA report shows more antibiotics being sold for food animals - New data released yesterday by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) show that sales of medically important antibiotics for use in food-producing animals rose by 4% last year. The latest summary report from the FDA's Center for Veterinary Medicine shows 6.2 million kilograms (kg) of medically important antibiotics were sold and distributed for use in livestock (chicken, turkey, cattle, swine, etc) in 2022, up from 5.9 million kg in 2021. Medically important antibiotics, which are tracked because they're also used in human medicine, accounted for 56% of all antibiotics sold for used in food-producing animals.The FDA notes that, since 2015 (the peak year of animal antibiotic sales), the volume of antibiotics sold for livestock and poultry in the United States has dropped by 36%. But all of the decline in sales occurred in 2016 and 2017, the year that new FDA rules ending the use of medically important antibiotics for growth promotion went into effect. Since 2017, antibiotic sales have steadily risen—a trend that advocates for better antibiotic stewardship in food-animal production say indicates the FDA isn't doing enough to ensure more judicious antibiotic use on farms."For every year of the FDA's 2018 5-year stewardship plan, sales have gone up, not down [compared with 2017]," David Wallinga, MD, a senior health officer with the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), told CIDRAP News. "By any measure, that's a complete failure."
High prevalence of multidrug-resistant infections reported in Ukraine hospitals -- A report today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports highlights rising concern about the spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) organisms linked to the ongoing war in Ukraine. To assess the prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) infections in Ukrainian hospitals, the Center for Public Health of Ukraine (UPHC) and regional collaborators conducted healthcare-associated infection (HAI) and AMR point-prevalence surveys at three hospitals in the Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, and Vinnytsia regions of Ukraine in November and December 2022. Among the 353 patients on surveyed wards, 50 (14%) had HAIs and 30 of the 50 (60%) had an infection with a carbapenem-resistant organism. Of the 20 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates tested, 19 were carbapenem-resistant and all were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins."These rates are substantially higher than those reported from a 2016–2017 European Union–wide point prevalence survey, which included more than 300,000 acute care hospital patients and 100,000 long-term care facility residents," the study authors wrote. That survey found a 5.5% HAI rate, with a 6.2% carbapenem-resistance rate among a subset of infections caused by Klebsiella and other members of the Enterobacteriaceae family.While the rise in MDR organisms in Ukraine has been attributed in part to high pre-war AMR rates and an increase in traumatic war wounds, UPHC's assessment of infection prevention and control (IPC) capacity at the three hospitals found inadequate implementation of IPC measures such as hand hygiene and inadequate HAI surveillance. Assessment of AMR laboratory capacity revealed suboptimal laboratory quality, inadequate quantities of automated microbiology equipment, and staffing shortages.
Epidemiological Alert - Sustained circulation of dengue in the Region of the Americas - 5 December 2023 -- In light of the beginning of the peak dengue circulation season in the southern hemisphere, the persistence of viral activity in the Central American Isthmus subregion and Mexico, and the identification of serotypes, mainly DENV-3, that had not circulated for several years in some areas, the Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) encourages Member States to continue efforts to maintain surveillance, early diagnosis, and timely treatment of dengue cases and other arboviruses. This is aimed at preventing complications and deaths associated with these diseases. At the same time, it calls for the intensification of preparedness actions within healthcare services to facilitate access and proper management of patients.
Rocky Mountain spotted fever outbreak kills three in California: CDC --At least three people have died from Rocky Mountain spotted fever [RMSF] in the last five months, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced in a public alert on Friday.Five cases of the deadly disease — caused by bites from infected ticks — have been reported since July in Southern California.In each case, the patient had been in the Mexican border city of Tecate within two weeks of becoming ill, the agency said.All five patients, three US residents and two Mexican residents, were hospitalized and three died. Four of the patients were minors. “RMSF is a severe, rapidly progressive, and often deadly disease transmitted by the bite of infected ticks, although many patients do not recall being bitten by a tick,” the CDC notice said. The disease is native to several states in northern Mexico along the southern border and parts of the Southwestern US. The pathogen, Rickettsia rickettsii, is commonly spread by ticks associated with urban dogs, according to the CDC. Symptoms can at first appear mild over the first 1-4 days of infection, including a “low-moderate fever, headache, gastrointestinal symptoms, abdominal pain, myalgia, rash, and edema around the eyes and on the back of hands,” the notice says. After about five days, however, the CDC says disease can cause “altered mental status, coma, cerebral edema, respiratory compromise, necrosis, and multiorgan system damage.
CDC issues health alert for deadly tick-borne disease - The Washington Post - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday warned clinicians and the public about an outbreak of a rare but deadly tick-borne disease that hospitalized five patients in Southern California, killing three of them, after they traveled to or lived in a Mexican border city in recent months. Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is transmitted by the bite of infected ticks that live primarily on dogs. It’s rare in the United States but it has emerged at epidemic levels in northern Mexico, where more than 2,000 cases, resulting in hundreds of deaths, have been reported in the past five years. In a health advisory issued late Friday, the CDC said the five patients had been diagnosed since late July. All had traveled to or lived in the city of Tecate, in the northern Mexican state of Baja California, within two weeks of getting sick. All five sought care in hospitals in Southern California, including four pediatric patients. CDC officials declined to provide more details about the individuals, to protect their privacy. Three of the patients were U.S. residents, and two were siblings who lived in Mexico. Two deaths were pediatric patients and one was an adult, CDC officials said.
France orders third avian flu vaccine dose for ducks in risk area --France's agriculture ministry has ordered that farm ducks in high-risk areas receive a third dose of avian flu vaccine owing to new scientific evidence, according to Reuters, which cites the country's farm ministry.In 2022, the European Union backed a plan to introduce vaccination in poultry, starting with France, which began the practice this fall. A number of European countries have been hit hard by outbreaks involving the newer 2.3.4.4b clade of the H5N1 strain that continues to circulate in multiple world regions.Though some countries such as China routinely vaccinate poultry against highly pathogenic avian flu viruses, veterinary medicine groups have been hesitant to recommend a broader rollout over concerns that the vaccine could mask ongoing circulation. In September, the US Department of Agriculture announced a restriction on poultry imports from France and its trading partners due to France's decision to begin vaccinating meat ducks.Meanwhile, France's agriculture ministry today raised the avian flu epidemic risk from medium to high, following an outbreak at a farm in Morbihan in late November, according to a statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. The boost in risk level triggers more protective measures, including sheltering and protecting poultry and a ban on gatherings involving poultry or captive birds.
Avian flu outbreaks hit more commercial farms in 7 states - The steady pace of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks at commercial poultry farms and in backyard flocks continues, with the virus striking 11 more commercial farms across seven states, according to updates over the past few days from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Affected premises include two broiler farms in Arkansas; more turkey farms in Ohio, Minnesota, and South Dakota; and a duck farm and a layer farm in California. Colorado and North Dakota also reported more outbreaks at commercial farms. Also, the virus hit backyard poultry in seven states, including Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Montana, and South Dakota. Since H5N1 first turned up in US poultry in early 2022, the outbreaks have led to the loss of a record 68.4 million poultry across 47 states. In the past 30 days alone, the virus has fueled outbreaks in 24 states.
CWD detected in new part of Utah -The Utah Division of Wildlife Resources (DWR) last week confirmed the first case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Payson, located in Utah County in the central part of the state. The confirmed case was 1 of 26 positive CWD cases, including 25 deer and one elk, identified from July 1 to November 28. Most of the cases were from the northeastern part of the state, but Payson is a new area for CWD, DWR officials said. Eighteen of the animals were harvested by hunters, five were found dead, and three were sick animals that were euthanized by the DWR. "We can't accurately compare each year's positive cases to determine how fast the disease is spreading because we sample different areas of the state each year that have different prevalence; alternatively, we compare each unit from year to year," DWR State Wildlife Veterinarian Ginger Stout, DVM, said in a DWR press release. "However, we are finding the disease in new areas, so unfortunately, it does appear to be spreading in Utah." CWD was first detected in a mule deer in northeastern Utah in 2022. A total of 188 mule deer and four elk have tested positive for the disease, which is a fatal neurologic condition found in deer and other cervids. Caused by misfolded proteins called prions, CWD is similar to bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad cow" disease). Although no human cases of CWD have been found in Utah or elsewhere, infected cervids can shed prions in urine, feces, and saliva, and transmission may occur through direct contact with an infected animal or indirectly through environmental contamination. Health officials urge people to avoid eating the meat of infected animals and to take precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.
Kentucky reports first case of chronic wasting disease - The first case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been detected in Kentucky, the Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources (KDFWR) announced in a news release yesterday.A hunter harvested the infected 2.5-year-old white-tailed buck in Ballard County on the opening day of modern-gun deer season in November. Two independent tests confirmed the infection."We at Kentucky Fish and Wildlife hoped this day would never come but, we have been preparing for it," KDFWR Commissioner Rich Storm said in the release. "Our team of experts first developed our CWD Response Plan more than 20 years ago, and it has been enhanced through the years using the best available science.""Collaboration with our many partners, including hunters, taxidermists, meat processors, diagnostic testing facilities, and other government agencies has enhanced our CWD surveillance efforts," he added.CWD has now been confirmed in 32 US states.CWD has been detected in six of seven states bordering Kentucky—Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Kentucky activated its CWD response plan in September 2021 after the disease was detected across the state's southern border with Tennessee, prompting the establishment of a CWD surveillance zone in the western part of the state, according to the KDFWR.
Do McDonald's French Fries Contain a 'Cigarette Ingredient' Called 'Acrilane'? | Snopes.com Since at least August 2023, Facebook users have shared a warning about the purported dangers of McDonald's french fries containing "acrilane," which was described as "the most carcinogenic ingredient in cigarettes." That warning – which was shared both as copied-and-pasted text and in image form – also mentioned a pesticide that, when sprayed on potatoes grown for McDonald's, was supposedly so harmful that it required farmers to stay away for several days. The most popular version of the rumor read as follows: One large McDonald's french fry from McDonald's has the same amount of Acrilane as a pack of cigarettes. Acrilane is the most carcinogenic ingredient in cigarettes. McDonald's french fries are harvested from potatoes that are sprayed with a pesticide that is so harmful to humans that the farmers must let it sit for four days before they can safely handle it. Enjoy your fries!In our research, we found that the rumor was misleading in a number of different ways. This fact check explains why. First off, as one Facebook user pointed out, "there is no such thing as 'acrilane.'" In our research, we found that the unknown user who originated this rumor was most likely referring not to "acrilane," but rather to acrylamide, as at least one user noted. Acrylamide forms as a byproduct of burning ingredients in cigarettes, but is not itself an “ingredient” in cigarettes. It is among many chemicals found in cigarette smoke classified as carcinogenic or potentially carcinogenic to humans.Acrylamide is a substance that forms when an object, such as food or cigarettes, is heated up. For example, the longer that food is fried, roasted or baked, the higher the levels of acrylamide will be. As the FDA described on its website, the substance forms through a natural chemical reaction between sugars and asparagine, an amino acid, in plant-based foods – including potato and cereal-grain-based foods.The FDA provided the following information about any associated health risks pertaining to acrylamide: Acrylamide has been shown to cause cancer in animals exposed to very high doses, and although there is no consistent epidemiological evidence on the effect of acrylamide from food consumption on cancer in humans, both the U.S. National Toxicology Program and the Joint Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) consider acrylamide to be a human health concern. Further, McDonald's restaurants in California are required by the state'sProposition 65 to display a sign that mentions the purported dangers of acrylamide, as users have noted with popular videos.The FDA's data from 2011 documented acrylamide levels in not just McDonald's french fries, but also similar levels of the substance in french fries from Burger King, Checkers, Chick-fil-A, KFC, Sonic, Wendy's and other restaurants. In other words, McDonald's was not a unique case in this regard. Rather, McDonald's was singled out by whoever started the viral rumor about acrylamide, when that person just as easily could have chosen to name any other restaurant.
Sausages To Cereals, 4 Ultra-processed Breakfast Foods Listed As Carcinogenic - Ultra-processed food (UPFs) are delicious, easily available and cheap. Due to these factors, people are opting for these UPFs and consuming them in large quantities. Consumption of these not only increases the calorie intake, but also contributes to several diseases including the risk of mouth cancer. UPFs like bread, breakfast cereals, ham, ice cream and chips are on the list of foods that can cause 34 different cancers, according to the largest cohort British study in Europe — the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Researchers from the University of Britain and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) worked to identify whether links between UPF consumption and head and neck cancers in the EPIC cohort may be the explanation for extra body fat. The research involved nearly half a million people for more than a decade and found that those who ate more UPFs had a higher risk of developing the cancer cells in their upper aerodigestive tract which also included the oesophagus. They also mentioned that consuming 10 percent of UPFs has a 23 percent higher risk of developing head and neck cancer and a 24 percent higher risk of oesophagus cancer. Here are the four UPF items that have been listed by the British Heart Foundation, which are commonly consumed during breakfast in Europe.
- 1. Sausages. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has also classified processed meat as a Class 1 carcinogen because certain chemicals in processed meats can cause them to be carcinogenic.
- 2. Breakfast cereal. Acrylamide (a chemical) can form in some foods including in the packaged breakfast cereals, during the high-temperature cooking processes. The chemical produced during the thermal processing of carbohydrate-rich foods is considered carcinogenic to humans.
- 3. Mass-produced Bread. A study by the Indian Centre of Science and Environment found that 84 percent of 38 bread brands carry chemicals known to cause cancer. In the sample of breads, the researchers found potassium bromate which is a category 2B carcinogen which causes cancer. Potassium iodate is also known to trigger thyroid issues.
- 4. Fruit-flavoured yoghurt. Some flavoured yoghurt may contain aspartame (artificial sweetener) that has been already declared as a “possible carcinogenic” to humans by WHO. Even though there is limited evidence of its carcinogenicity in humans.
Water crisis in South Africa: Damning report finds 46% contamination, 67% of works near to breaking down - A new report by South Africa's Department of Water and Sanitation paints a grim picture of the quality of the country's drinking water, and its water infrastructure. The Blue Drop Audit Report is meant to ensure that water service authorities are held accountable for providing safe drinking water. The Conversation Africa put questions to water expert Anja du Plessis.The audit report found that the quality of the country's drinkable water is getting worse. Nearly half (46%) of all water supply systems pose acute human health risks because of bacteria or other pathogens in the drinking water supply.The report also found that more than two thirds (67.6%) of all wastewater treatment works are close to failure. On top of this it showed that over 47% of all clean and treated water was lost through leaks, or could not be accounted for.The national Blue Drop Risk Rating is an assessment focused on critical risk areas within water services. It looks at water supply systems at a specific moment in time. This year's report showed that the overall risk had dropped from 52.3% in 2022 to 47.15% in 2023 after some water supply systems made improvements and improved their risk category from critical or high to medium or low risk.But this should not be celebrated. To achieve Blue Drop certification, water supply systems must meet 95% of the criteria for delivering clean, drinkable water—and only 26 of South Africa's 958 water supply systems managed this.
‘Forever chemical’ in English tap water samples carcinogenic, WHO rules -- A substance found in hundreds of drinking water samples across England has been categorised as carcinogenic by the World Health Organization (WHO).The move will increase pressure on the UK government to take action on “forever chemicals”. Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) is one of 10,000 or so chemicals within thefamily of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) that are used in a wide range of products, from cosmetics to clothing and food packaging, as well as in industrial processes and in firefighting foams. PFOA and another member of the family, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have largely been banned, but remain in the environment because of their persistence. Studies have linked the PFAS family of chemicals to cancers, immunodeficiencies, reproductive harms and developmental effects in children. They are not easily metabolised by the body so build up in humans and animals over time.PFOA has been linked to cancer for some time but a growing body of evidence means it has now been upgraded to “category one”, which means it is “carcinogenic to humans”, according to the WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).A recent report from the Drinking Water Inspectorate (DWI) shows that approximately 12,000 samples taken from drinking water sources contain at least one PFAS of some kind.The highest concentration of PFOA detected in a drinking water source was 149 nanograms a litre (ng/l), 1.5 times the DWI’s maximum limit for tap water. PFOS, categorised by the IARC as a “possible carcinogen”, was found at levels as high as 1,869ng/l, although these levels will have been diluted before reaching a tap.Analysis of Environment Agency and water company data by Watershed Investigations showed that PFOA was detected in almost 1,000 drinking water sources sampled between 2006 and 2022. And tap water sampling aroundEngland found PFOA in more than half of the 45 samples taken, albeit below 10ng/l, deemed “low risk” by the DWI.Earlier this year, the Guardian and Watershed Investigations found that effluent from the site of a chemicals company flowing into a protected river in Lancashire contained “extremely high levels” of PFOA.
'Forever chemicals' found in freshwater fish, yet most states don't warn residents - Bill Eisenman has always fished. "Growing up, we ate whatever we caught—catfish, carp, freshwater drum," he said. "That was the only real source of fish in our diet as a family, and we ate a lot of it." Today, a branch of the Rouge River runs through Eisenman's property in a suburb north of Detroit. But in recent years, he has been wary about a group of chemicals known as PFAS, also referred to as "forever chemicals," which don't break down quickly in the environment and accumulate in soil, water, fish, and our bodies. The chemicals have spewed from manufacturing plants and landfills into local ecosystems, polluting surface water and groundwater, and the wildlife living there. And hundreds of military bases have been pinpointed as sources of PFAS chemicals leaching into nearby communities. Researchers, anglers, and environmental activists nationwide worry about the staggering amount of PFAS found in freshwater fish. At least 17 states have issued PFAS-related fish consumption advisories, KFF Health News found, with some warning residents not to eat any fish caught in particular lakes or rivers because of dangerous levels of forever chemicals. With no federal guidance, what is considered safe to eat varies significantly among states, most of which provide no regulation. Eating a single serving of freshwater fish can be the equivalent of drinking water contaminated with high levels of PFAS for a month, according to a recent study from the Environmental Working Group, a research and advocacy organization that tracks PFAS. It's an unsettling revelation, especially for rural, Indigenous, and low-income communities that depend on subsistence fishing. Fish remain a large part of cultural dishes, as well as an otherwise healthy source of protein and omega-3s. "PFAS in freshwater fish is at such a concentration that for anyone consuming, even infrequently, it would likely be their major source of exposure over the course of the year," said David Andrews, a co-author of the study and researcher at EWG. "We're talking thousands of times higher than what's typically seen in drinking water." Dianne Kopec, a researcher and faculty fellow at the University of Maine who studies PFAS and mercury in wildlife, warned that eating fish with high concentrations of PFAS may be more harmful than mercury, which long ago was found to be a neurotoxin most damaging to a developing fetus. The minimal risk level—an estimate of how much a person can eat, drink, or breathe daily without "detectable risk" to health—for PFOS, a common PFAS chemical, is 50 times as low as for methylmercury, the form of mercury that accumulates in fish, according to the federal Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. But she emphasized, "They're both really nasty." Just like mercury, PFAS bioaccumulate up the food chain, so bigger fish, like largemouth bass, generally contain more chemicals than smaller fish. Mercury is more widespread in Maine, but Kopec said PFAS levels near contamination sources are concerningly high.
Micro- And Nanoplastics Linked To Parkinson’s And Dementia - That plastic water bottle you regularly drink from could one day decompose into tiny particles that wreak havoc in your brain.New research shows that nanoplastics—microscopic particles broken down from everyday plastic items—bind to proteins associated with Parkinson’s disease and Lewy body dementia.These stealthy nanoparticles have already infiltrated our soil, water, and food supply. Now, they may pose the next great toxin threat, fueling a wave of neurodegenerative disease. Polystyrene nanoparticles, commonly found in plastic cups and utensils, bind to alpha-synuclein, a protein linked to Parkinson’s disease and Lewy body dementia, the new study from Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment and the Department of Chemistry at Trinity College of Arts and Sciences found. The plastic-protein accumulation was seen in test tubes, cultured neurons, and mouse models. The most surprising finding was the tight bonds formed between the plastic and protein within neuron lysosomes, according to Andrew West, the study’s principal investigator. Lysosomes are digestive organelles within cells that use enzymes to break down waste materials and cellular debris.“Our study suggests that the emergence of micro and nanoplastics in the environment might represent a new toxin challenge with respect to Parkinson’s disease risk and progression,” Mr. West said in a press statement. This is especially concerning given the expected increase of these contaminants in our water and food, he added.Growing evidence indicates that nanoplastics circulate in the air, especially indoors. When inhaled, they can travel from the respiratory tract directly to the blood and brain, increasing cancer risk.Our health today is largely a function of our environment in the past, Dr. Ray Dorsey, a professor of neurology at the University of Rochester in New York and an author of “Ending Parkinson’s Disease,” told The Epoch Times. “For example, the risk of lung cancer is a function of our past smoking habits,” he said. “If we want to live lives free of Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and cancer in the future, we should pay attention to our environment today.”The Duke study adds to evidence that common toxic pollutants may contribute to Parkinson’s disease, Dr. Dorsey said. More research is needed, but evidence from both laboratory and epidemiological studies suggests our environments are fueling Parkinson’s incidence increase.
One in six 'Made in China' garments contain carcinogenic chemical -- Consumers have been warned to think twice when buying a clothes with 'Made in China' label, as recent research showed they can contain dangerous chemicals. The warning comes following a study carried out for the European Commission by Centexbel, the Belgian Centre for Textiles and Plastics. It showed that one garment in six coming from China contains chemicals that contain carcinogenic substances. These include bisphenol, nickel or chromium-6, which can also induce skin irritations or be hormone-disrupting. "I am particularly shocked by what I read. It is clear that we have to act quickly and everyone has to get around the table to make controls more efficient," said State Secretary for Consumer Protection Alexia Bertrand. She is therefore working to bring the sector together with the various competent inspectorates and her colleagues within the Federal Government. This will likely lead to stricter controls in Belgium on imported textiles from China in the short term. Once a product is on the European market, it can end up in any shop through the free movement of goods that exists on the continent. While every EU Member State needs to apply equal standards, if controls are not carried out thoroughly enough in one country, it can affect the whole market. "There is not an intensive enough search for dangerous imports, which means it makes no difference whether you buy Chinese clothes directly online in China, in a local market in Europe or a branded clothing shop," Bertrand added. She will therefore also put the issue high on the agenda of the Belgian EU Presidency after the New Year. Finally, Bertrand noted that there are also steps that consumers can take to keep themselves safe. "As a consumer, you should keep this study in mind when you see 'Made in China' on the label of clothes or any other textile product." If products are made in China, they should be washed before first use.>
The Cosmetic Industry's Toxic Toll on Black Women - Worried that her natural black styles would not be taken seriously as she pursued an acting career, JeanetteToomer began using chemical straighteners — many of which relied on the toxic substance formaldehyde, a known carcinogen — to straighten and smooth her naturally curly hair. Now, Toomer fears, the straighteners may have exacted a terrible toll: in 2021 — after what Toomer says were more than four decades of regularly using formaldehyde-based relaxers — she was diagnosed with stage 4 endometrial cancer, which she believes can be traced to her use of hair straighteners.“We were doing these perm relaxers with no idea that we were giving ourselves cancer all these many years,” she said, referring to herself and the untold numbers of other Black women who have used chemical hair treatments since their creation in 1905. “I’m never using it again. I’m never using it again.”In October, the Food and Drug Administration proposed a ban on the use of formaldehydeand other formaldehyde releasing chemicals as an ingredient in hair straightening or smoothing products, citing the chemical’s links to cancer and a range of other adverse health effects, including nervous system disorders, respiratory problems and skin conditions.“Studies have shown that when hair straightening products containing formaldehyde, which are often marketed towards Black women are used with heat, the risk of certain cancers, including certain upper respiratory tract cancers and myeloid leukemias increases,” said Namandjé N. Bumpus, the FDA’s chief scientist, who noted that those health effects are “unacceptable.” “This is really an individual decision for people about how they want to present,” said Bumpus in an interview with Inside Climate News, adding that these products disproportionately impact Black women. African Americans make up 14 percent of the population, but spend nine times more on ethnic hair and beauty products than non-Black women, according to a recent Nielsen report. One study last fall underscored the devastating effects of those exposures: the National Institutes of Health found that there was an increased risk of uterine cancer among women who used formaldehyde-based hair-straightening products at least four times a year. The study said the rates of uterine cancer among Black women have been increasing in the U.S. and that because Black women use hair straighteners more frequently, they may be more affected. Another study by the same team found there was an increased breast cancer risk in connection with the use of hair straighteners as well as permanent hair dye.
Monsanto Gets Roundup Carcinogen Suit Dismissed – Law360 -- A California federal judge has dismissed with prejudice a suit by consumers alleging that ingredients in Monsanto's Roundup could form a dangerous cancer-causing substance, saying the complaint fails to allege that such a thing has happened in the products at issue. . . .
Glyphosate cancer warning rejected: US appeals court rebuffs California's attempt to require label that conflicts with global consensus that the herbicide is safe as used - Genetic Literacy Project - A U.S. appeals court recently ruled that California lacks the authority to enforce a regulation mandating cancer warnings on glyphosate, the main active compound in Monsanto’s widely used herbicide Roundup, which was acquired by Bayer in 2018. The Ninth Circuit ruled Nov. 7 that the most recent warning issued by the state of California perpetuates the assertion that the chemical is hazardous, a claim deemed “at best disputed,” Law360 reported. The Ninth Circuit’s split panel upheld a summary judgment by a California federal judge, affirming the invalidity of the state’s updated glyphosate safe harbor warning. The published opinion emphasized that the most recent warning would compel companies to communicate a “controversial, fiercely contested message that they fundamentally disagree with,” rendering it unsustainable. The panel underscored the absence of a scientific consensus regarding glyphosate’s carcinogenic properties, noting that although the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) identified it as a probable human carcinogen in 2015, this viewpoint is not universally accepted within the scientific community. Consequently, the proposed warning stating that “glyphosate is known to cause cancer” was deemed contentious and not purely factual, as the term “known” carries legal nuance not readily apparent to consumers without context. In light of the lack of unanimity on the chemical’s impact, the panel asserted that California can only mandate commercial speech if it satisfies the requirements of intermediate scrutiny. The court concluded that none of the proposed glyphosate Proposition 65 warnings met these criteria, rendering the application of the warning unconstitutional.
EPA takes action against Connecticut-based school bus transportation company for idling violations – The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently reached a settlement with All Star Transportation, a Connecticut-based school bus transportation company, that violated state and federal clean air standards by allegedly allowing excessive idling of school buses at two locations in Connecticut. “Cutting down on pollution is a crucial part of achieving clean air, especially for children and for our communities who bear the brunt of this pollution,” said EPA New England Regional Administrator David W. Cash. “With settlements like this one, and through our efforts to replace diesel school buses with electric buses, EPA continues to make good on our mission to protect our communities’ basic rights to clean air and a clean environment.” All-Star Transportation, LLC is a company that owns and operates fleets of school buses in eighteen Connecticut communities. Under the terms of the settlement, All-Star Transportation, based in Waterbury, agreed to pay a penalty of $64,833 and certify compliance with state regulations. The settlement also requires the company to adopt a series of compliance measures at all its facilities. These include tracking school bus idling time via a telematics system; posting clear signage; updating driver training, including documenting any applicable regulatory exceptions when exceeding idling limit; conducting regular examinations of bus lots to prevent future violations; and addressing driver noncompliance. Connecticut's federally enforceable State Implementation Plan contains an anti-idling regulation that prohibits motor vehicles from idling for longer than three minutes, unless a specifically listed exception applies. EPA alleged that it observed 76 of All-Star’s school buses idling excessively during EPA’s investigation in New Milford and Brookfield, Conn., totaling more than 780 excess minutes. Idling diesel engines emit pollutants that can cause or aggravate a variety of health problems including asthma and other respiratory diseases, and the fine particles in diesel exhaust are a likely human carcinogen. Diesel exhaust not only contributes to area-wide air quality problems, but more direct exposure can cause lightheadedness, nausea, sore throat, coughing, and other symptoms. Drivers, school children riding on the buses, facility workers, neighbors, and bystanders are all vulnerable.
Wildfires have offset 20 years of air quality gains in US West: study - The frequency and ferocity of wildfires across the U.S. West have negated the improvements in air quality achieved over the past two decades, a new study has found. From 2000 through 2020, air pollution has deteriorated in this part of the country due to these blazes, causing a surge of 670 premature deaths annually during that period, according to the study, published on Monday in The Lancet Planetary Health. Wildfires, the researchers determined, have managed to “undercut successful federal efforts” from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which has worked to improve air quality primarily through reduction in vehicular emissions. “Our air is supposed to be cleaner and cleaner due mostly to EPA regulations on emissions, but the fires have limited or erased these air-quality gains,” co-first author Jun Wang, chair of the University of Iowa’s Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, said in a statement. “In other words, all the efforts for the past 20 years by the EPA to make our air cleaner basically have been lost in fire-prone areas and downwind regions,” Wang continued. “We are losing ground.”
Protected areas in Thailand at a higher risk of forest fires when located away from indigenous communities -- Research from the University of Warwick has found that national parks and protected areas are at a higher risk of forest fires when located farther away from indigenous communities. Based on the analysis of satellite images from Thailand and case studies from other Southeast Asian countries, the research demonstrates that policymakers can achieve improvements in forest health by working collaboratively with indigenous communities. Involving communities results in reduction of forest fires and air pollution. Current green policies in Thailand do not take into account that indigenous communities have long-standing traditions and sustainable practices for protecting the land. "Globally, Indigenous peoples' lands cover over 36% of intact forest landscapes, making them crucial for mitigating severe climate change. We also know that the loss of intact forest landscapes has been significantly lower on indigenous lands compared to other areas. "Current green policies exclude local communities from using the forest and at the same time prevents them from implementing effective environmental management practices, such as community forestry, tree ordination (a symbolic Buddhist ritual which involves wrapping orange robes to help people view them as sacred and therefore prevent logging and deforestation), forest fire monitoring, and animal grazing—all of which have been proven to protect forest cover." The Mae Sa Noi village in the Chiang Mai highlands in Thailand is home to a Hmong community. The villagers have successfully instilled ancient Hmong rituals which involve annual celebrations for a deity believed to be inhabiting the sacred tong seng tree in the forest. "The purpose of these celebrations is to strengthen the protection of the forest while also showcasing the community's commitment to the natural environment to the local authorities who are also invited to these events."
Los Angeles aims to collect billions more gallons of local water by 2045 - Over the next two decades, Los Angeles County will collect billions more gallons in water from local sources, especially storm and reclaimed water, shifting from its reliance on other region's water supplies as the effects of climate change make such efforts less reliable and more expensive. The L.A. County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday adopted the county's first water plan, which outlines how America's largest county must stop importing 60% of its water and pivot over the next two decades to sourcing 80% of its water locally by 2045. The plan calls for increasing local water supply by 580,000 acre-feet per year by 2045 through more effective stormwater capture, water recycling and conservation. The increase would be roughly equivalent to 162 billion gallons, or enough water for 5 million additional county residents, county leaders said. "We need to conserve every drop of water possible for beneficial reuse by reducing demand, by recycling our water, by capturing much more stormwater in our natural aquifers. And I know that the public is watching to make sure we do exactly that," said Board Chair Lindsey P. Horvath. "As climate change makes our important water resources less reliable and more expensive, I would like to see the majority of our stormwater be diverted for beneficial reuse rather than washed out to the ocean where it pollutes our coast." The development of the county's water plan started in 2019 when former L.A. County Supervisor Sheila Kuehl authored a motion that created the county's sustainability plan and paved the wave for a water plan. Horvath, her successor, closed the loop Tuesday on her first day as board chair with her motion to implement the plan. At 41, Horvath is the youngest person to serve as board chair. Mark Pestrella, L.A. County Department of Public Works director, said pivoting the county from a long history of importing water "is aspirational, but it is actually achievable." There are at least 200 independent water districts or agencies in L.A. County responsible for delivering safe, clean water, and Pestrella said the plan was aimed at fostering collaboration. In 2020, the county asked each for input and also held 90 stakeholder meetings over three years with local and tribal leaders, community members and advocate groups, Pestrella said. Most of the 200 agencies are on record agreeing to adopt the county water plan. "For years, we've been basically letting each of those any one or a number of those water agencies sort of lead the way or actually just act individually in the interest of the county of Los Angeles," Pestrella said. The water plan however "has brought all those people together saying what makes sense for this region in terms of our best and highest use of our water." The plan will focus on a number of goals: improving the reliability of the region's water supply; collecting and storing groundwater; increasing the quality and resilience of small systems that are at risk of failing; mitigating the impact of wildfires on the water supply and managing watershed sediment. The county's water plan, Pestrella said, also sets the county up to be more competitive in applying for state and federal money.
Munich hit by heaviest snowfall in 20 years, wakes up to 50 cm (1.6 feet) of snow and severe traffic disruption, Germany - Munich woke up to a record-breaking snowfall of 50 cm (1.6 feet) on December 2, 2023, marking the city’s heaviest snowfall in two decades. The German Weather Service had previously issued Level 2 and Level 3 weather warnings for heavy snowfall in southern Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, leading to significant disruptions in air travel and ground transportation. On December 2, 2023, Munich reported a historic snow accumulation of 50 cm (1.6 feet), the most significant in 20 years. This followed the German Weather Service’s advisories on December 1, 2023, warning of heavy snowfall across southern regions of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg. The forecasted snowfall ranged between 10 to 40 cm (4 to 16 inches), but the actual accumulation exceeded expectations. The issued weather warnings included a Level 2 advisory for parts of southern Bavaria near the Austrian border and a more severe Level 3 warning for areas including Munich and southern Baden-Wurttemberg. These warnings, which are the third-highest and second-highest levels on a four-tier scale, were set to remain in effect at least until late December 2. The snowfall had already begun impacting the region on December 1, causing disruptions at Munich Airport (MUC) with flight delays and cancellations. This is Germany’s second-largest airport. Additionally, the heavy snowfall led to significant cancellations in both air and rail travel on December 2, as reported by Reuters. Deutsche Bahn and Munich Airport announced the cancellation of long-distance trains and hundreds of flights in and out of Munich. Munich Airport stated that no flights were scheduled to depart or arrive until at least 05:00 UTC on Sunday, December 3, according to its website. Furthermore, Deutsche Bahn reported on its website that trains could not reach Munich’s central train station, with the halt expected to last the entire day. Passengers were advised to rebook their trips due to these disruptions. Unfortunately, this snow event resulted in dozens of overnight road accidents across southern Germany, including one mass collision with 7 injuries — four of them severe.
Strong atmospheric river drops record rainfall in the Pacific Northwest, U.S. - A powerful atmospheric river has brought record-breaking rainfall to Washington and Oregon, causing widespread flooding and two fatalities as of December 5. The National Weather Service forecasts the storms to continue until December 7. Notable impacts include record river levels, such as the Stillaguamish River reaching a historic 6.50 m (21.34 feet), and extensive property damage across both states. The Pacific Northwest of the USA has been experiencing severe weather conditions due to a powerful atmospheric river. Starting from December 4, 2023, this weather phenomenon has brought record levels of rainfall to parts of Washington and Oregon. As of December 5, the event has resulted in two reported fatalities. Numerous homes have been impacted by floods, leading to several rescues, including some by Coast Guard helicopter teams. In Western Washington, the Olympic National Park recorded a 220.22 mm (8.67 inches) of rain in a 24-hour period. The towns of Hoodsport and Duvall also experienced significant rainfall, each recording 180.85 mm (7.12 inches). The NWS Seattle office reported daily rainfall records in several locations, including Hoquiam, Forks, Sea-Tac Airport, and Olympia Airport. Forks, WA, received 119.13 mm (4.69 inches) of rain, breaking its previous daily record set in 1971 and surpassing the total rainfall Las Vegas, NV, has received in 2023. The Stillaguamish River in Arlington reached a record high of 6.50 m (21.34 feet) on December 5, surpassing the previous record set in 2010. Major flood stages were reported along the Skagit River near Concrete and moderate flood stages along the Snohomish, Snoqualmie, Skokomish, and Cowlitz Rivers. Rescue efforts have been extensive, with the US Coast Guard helicopter teams rescuing individuals from flooded homes and vehicles. Fire crews in Monroe, Washington, also conducted rescues from a flooded home, and in Granite Falls, at least 12 homes were reported as flooded. Silvana, Washington, faced severe isolation, becoming reachable only by boat as roads were inundated. Fire department officials have advised the 200 residents to shelter in place. In Oregon, the Washington County Sheriff’s Office reported the recovery of a body in Bronson Creek, Beaverton, believed to have been swept away by the floods. Another body was recovered from Johnson Creek in Portland.
Destructive flash flood near Lake Toba in Indonesia buries homes, claims one life and leaves 11 missing - Severe flash floods hit Simangalumpe Village near Lake Toba in Indonesia’s North Sumatra province on the evening of December 1, 2023, following heavy rainfall. The village is located in Baktiraja District, Humbang Hasundutan Regency. The floods caused significant damage, impacting homes, a church, a school, and a hotel in the area. According to the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), one person lost his life and 11 others are missing. The intensity of the floods was such that large stones, trees, and mud were dragged down the hillsides, burying some houses up to their roofs, as depicted in images released by the agency. Lake Toba, recognized as the world’s largest volcanic lake, is a renowned destination attracting both local and international tourists. Rescue efforts are currently underway with approximately 350 personnel using heavy machinery. Additionally, around 200 individuals have been evacuated from the affected areas. The BNPB continues to coordinate the search and rescue operations to locate the missing individuals and provide assistance to those affected by the disaster.
Severe floods and landslides hit Tanzania’s Hanang district, burying 100 homes and claiming at least 47 lives - (YouTube video) At least 57 people have been killed and 85 others injured in destructive floods and landslides caused by heavy rainfall in northern Tanzania on Saturday, December 2, 2023. The death toll is expected to rise. According to district commissioner Janeth Mayanja, heavy rains hit the village of Katesh, located some 300 km (186 miles) north of the capital Dodoma on December 2, causing severe floods and landslides. President Samia Suluhu Hassan said at least 100 houses in the village were swallowed by a landslide. “Up to this evening, the death toll reached 47 and 85 injured,” Queen Sendiga, regional commissioner in the Manyara area of northern Tanzania, told local media on Sunday. Both warned the death toll was likely to increase. Mayanja added that many roads in the area have been rendered impassable due to mud, water, and the obstruction posed by dislodged trees and stones. Since late October 2023, northern Tanzania, particularly the Arusha Region bordering southern Kenya, has been grappling with heavy rainfall and devastating floods. As reported on November 16, the floods resulted in at least 10 fatalities and the displacement of approximately 90 families. The Arusha District, comprising villages and neighborhoods like Muriet, Terrat, Elerai, Morombo, Lolovono, and Ngarenaro, was the hardest hit. Crops in some parts of the country have been washed away, affecting people’s livelihoods. Severe flooding caused by a combination of the El Nino and Indian Ocean dipole weather phenomena has killed hundreds of people in neighboring Kenya and Somalia since seasonal rains began in October. Update: The number of fatalities rose to 57 while 85 are still receiving treatment in hospital. The floods and landslides affected 1 150 households, or 5 600 people.
Tropical Cyclone “Michaung” makes landfall in Andhra Pradesh, India - After wreaking havoc in Chennai with torrential rains, Tropical Cyclone “Michaung” made landfall in Andhra Pradesh’s Bapatla on December 5, 2023. The cyclone, the first to hit the state’s coast since 2021, has caused significant disruptions, including eight fatalities in Chennai. Authorities are conducting rescue operations amid continued heavy rainfall in the region. The severe cyclonic storm Michaung, originating from the Bay of Bengal, has made its landfall on the coast of Andhra Pradesh at Bapatla on December 5, 2023. This event marks the first major cyclone to strike the state’s coast since Cyclone Gulab in September 2021. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that Michaung intensified into a severe cyclonic storm before its landfall. Michaung’s impact has been felt strongly in both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. In Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu, the cyclone has been particularly devastating. The city has recorded about 500 mm (20 inches) of rainfall in just two days, significantly exceeding its average monthly rainfall. This has led to severe waterlogging, with many roads and subways closed. The Tamil Nadu Police reported the tragic loss of eight lives in Chennai due to the cyclone. Among the deceased were individuals who were electrocuted, one killed by a falling tree, and others who died in rain-related incidents. The identities of some victims remain unknown. In Andhra Pradesh, the landfall process began around 08:30 UTC on December 5, 2023, near Bapatla. SkyMet meteorologists described the storm as compact, expecting the landfall process to be completed within about two hours. Significant clouding was reported over the land with the eyewall clouds moving inland across regions like Ongole and Bapatla. The storm is expected to weaken following its landfall and take a northeastward turn, bringing heavy rains over Telangana and potentially affecting central and northern parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha with intense rainfall activities. Improvements in weather conditions along the Andhra coast are anticipated approximately six hours post-landfall.
Record rainfall in Chennai as Michaung intensifies into severe cyclonic storm, causes major disruptions - Tropical Cyclone “Michaung” has brought Chennai to a standstill, with continuous heavy rains since the early morning. The city has accumulated an alarming 460 mm (18.1 inches) of rainfall by 14:30 LT, surpassing its average December rainfall. Michaung is the 6th named storm of the 2023 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. It is forecasted to intensify and make landfall between Nellore and Machilipatnam, near Bapatla, during the forenoon of December 5. Chennai, the bustling capital of India’s Tamil Nadu state, is experiencing an extraordinary weather crisis brought by Tropical Cyclone “Michaun” which has been delivering relentless rainfall since the early hours of December 5, 2023. The city, which typically receives about 191 mm (7.5 inches) of rainfall in December, has already witnessed a record-breaking 460 mm (18.1 inches) by 14:30 LT today. This amount is rapidly approaching the previous December record of 542 mm (21.3 inches) set in 2015. The Meenambakkam Airport observatory in Chennai recorded an astonishing 250 mm (9.8 inches) of rainfall in the 24 hours ending at 08:30 LT today. From 08:30 to 14:30 LT, an additional 108 mm (4.25 inches) was added to this total. The combination of torrential rain and gale-speed winds has led to the temporary closure of Chennai airport until 23:30 LT tonight, severely disrupting air travel. YouTube video The cyclone’s current trajectory shows it moving nearly northwards, parallel to the south Andhra Pradesh coast. It is forecasted to intensify and make landfall between Nellore and Machilipatnam, near Bapatla, during the forenoon of December 5. Wind speeds are expected to reach a maximum of 100 km/h (62 mph), with gusts up to 110 km/h (68.3 mph). The RSMC has issued several warnings, including rainfall, wind, sea condition, and fishermen warnings. Coastal regions of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha are expected to experience varying degrees of heavy rainfall and strong winds. The storm surge, estimated to be around 1 to 1.5 m (3.3 – 4.9 feet) above the astronomical tide, is likely to cause significant coastal inundation, particularly in low-lying areas. Local authorities are advising residents to remain indoors and avoid areas prone to waterlogging. Efforts are underway to mitigate the impact on vulnerable structures and communities, particularly in coastal districts.
Extensive agricultural damage in Andhra Pradesh following Tropical Cyclone “Michaung” - Tropical Cyclone “Michaung” made landfall in Andhra Pradesh, India on December 5, 2023, leading to widespread crop damage across several districts and significant flooding. Cyclone Michaung, which crossed the coast near Bapatla on December 5, 2023, brought heavy rains and strong winds to Andhra Pradesh, causing extensive damage. The cyclone’s impact led to the inundation of low-lying areas and widespread destruction of standing crops. Several villages in the cyclone-affected districts were isolated as roads became flooded due to overflowing lakes, tanks, and streams. In addition to the flooding, road connectivity was disrupted by fallen trees and electricity poles. Districts including Bapatla, Krishna, NTR, Guntur, Palnadu, Eluru, East Godavari, West Godavari, Alluri Sitharamaraju, Anakapalli, Nellore, and Tirupati were among the hardest hit. Farmers faced significant losses, particularly in paddy, cotton, chili, and maize crops, which were ready for harvest. Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy directed officials to focus on restoring normalcy in the affected areas and instructed officials to prioritize clearing water from inundated agricultural fields and to ensure the distribution of seeds on an 80 percent subsidy. Special attention was directed towards sanitation to prevent the spread of diseases. In terms of financial support, Reddy urged district collectors and officials to be liberal in extending help to victim families. He announced an ex-gratia of Rs 30 lakh for the family of a police constable from Kadapa who died during relief work. Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, particularly in Chennai, the cyclone caused about 500 mm (20 inches) of rainfall in two days, leading to severe waterlogging and the closure of many roads and subways. The Tamil Nadu Police reported eight fatalities due to the cyclone, including electrocution and rain-related incidents.
Tropical Cyclone “Jasper” intensifies to Category 4, threatens north Queensland coast, Australia - Severe Tropical Cyclone “Jasper” has intensified to a Category 4 system on Friday, December 8, 2023, with sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph) and gusts up to 270 km/h (165 mph). Currently located about 650 km (405 miles) from Honiara, Solomon Islands, Jasper poses a potential threat to the north Queensland coast. Jasper formed on December 4, 2023, as the first named storm of the 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season. As of 00:00 UTC on December 8, Jasper’s center was approximately 650 km (405 miles) from Honiara, Solomon Islands. The cyclone had maximum 10-minute sustained winds at 195 km/h (120 mph) and 1-minute sustained winds at 220 km/h (140 mph), both gusting up to 270 km/h (165 mph). The minimum central pressure was 940 hPa, and Jasper was moving south at a speed of 11 km/h (6.9 mph). (satellite image of tropical cyclone jasper at 0430 utc on december 8 2023) The trajectory forecasts for Jasper suggest a westward turn over the weekend, heading towards the north Queensland coast. Despite an expected weakening phase, there remains a risk of re-intensification as Jasper nears the coast, with a potential for severe impacts. The areas between Cape Melville and Townsville, including Cairns and Cooktown, are at the highest risk of cyclone impact. While the exact timing of the coastal impact remains uncertain, the authorities are monitoring Jasper closely, with preparations underway to mitigate the potentially severe effects.
Ocean warming sets the stage for dangerous but predictable East Africa droughts - Frequent droughts—interspersed with floods—have become the new norm in eastern East Africa over the past few years, driving a massive food security crisis. In 2020, the Horn of Africa entered its longest and most severe dry spell in more than 70 years, and 2022 marked the driest springtime drought on record. More than 20 million people experienced extreme hunger because of failed harvests, and there were more than 9 million livestock deaths.In what's been described as the East African climate paradox, climate change models did not anticipate these droughts, projecting instead increased springtime rains. However, researchers with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) were able to predict these droughts using tailored forecasts based on sea surface temperatures.Though identifying the link to Pacific Ocean temperatures has improved predictions, giving humanitarian relief agencies the chance to reduce the loss of lives and livelihoods, scientists previously didn't fully understand why this connection existed. In a recent study published in Earth's Future, Chris Funk and colleagues examine what's causing this link.La Niña events have become more strongly linked to droughts since the western Pacific Ocean warmed dramatically in 1998. The researchers dug further into data about sea surface temperatures and rainfall observations and noted that rising temperatures in the western Pacific are causing the ocean's east-to-west sea surface temperature gradient to become more extreme.In the springtime, when East Africa usually experiences a rainy season, climate change–enhanced La Niñas amplify this phenomenon. These gradients intensify an airflow pattern known as the Walker circulation, which tends to drive high heat and moisture near Indonesia but reduce moisture over East Africa.The researchers showed that climate models predict the east-to-west Pacific sea surface temperature gradient to continue to strengthen in the coming decades, so it's likely droughts will continue to be frequent in East Africa. But identifying the link between sea surface temperature and precipitation has already allowed FEWS NET scientists to predict many of the worst dry spells, as well as to anticipate extreme rains and flooding in 2023. This study further improves scientists' understanding of how climate change is bringing more extreme, but predictable, fluctuations in the Walker circulation.
Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda is warmer and more acidic than ever, 40 years of observation show --Decade-long ocean warming that impacts ocean circulation, a decrease in oxygen levels that contributes to changes in salinification and nutrient supply, and ocean acidification are just some of the challenges the world's oceans are facing. In 1988, a comprehensive sustained ocean time-series of observations, called the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS), began at a site about 80 km southeast of the island of Bermuda. There, scientists take monthly samples of the physics, biology, and chemistry of the ocean's surface and depths.In a new paper published in Frontiers in Marine Science, researchers have now presented the latest findings from this monitoring effort."We show that the surface ocean in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean has warmed by around 1°C over the past 40 years. Furthermore, the salinity of the ocean has increased, and it has lost oxygen," said author Prof Nicholas Bates, an ocean researcher at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, a unit of the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University (ASU) and professor in the School of Ocean Futures at ASU. "In addition, ocean acidity has increased from the 1980s to the 2020s."At the BATS monitoring station, ocean surface temperatures have increased by around 0.24°C each decade since the 1980s. Added up, the ocean is around 1°C warmer now than it was 40 years ago. In the last four years, ocean temperatures have also risen more sharply than in the previous decades, the researchers found.Not only have the monitored waters gotten warmer, but also more saline at the surface, meaning more salt is dissolved in the water. Like surface temperature, this saltiness has disproportionally increased during the last few years, the newest data showed."We suspect this is part of the broader, more recent trends and changes in ocean temperatures and environmental changes, like atmospheric warming and having had the warmest years globally," Bates said.At the same time, the data indicated that over the last 40 years the amount of oxygen available to living aquatic organisms has decreased by 6%. Acidity values, too, have changed: the ocean is now 30% more acidic than it was in the 1980s, resulting in lower carbon ion concentrations. This can, among other things, affect shelled organisms' ability to sustain their shells.
Shallow M7.6 earthquake hits near the coast of Mindanao, Philippines - tsunami waves produced - A powerful earthquake registered by the USGS as M7.6 hit near the coast of Mindanao, Philippines at 14:37 UTC (22:37 local time) on December 2, 2023. The agency is reporting a depth of 32.8 km (20.4 miles). EMSC is reporting M7.5 at a depth of 63 km (39 miles); PHIVOLCS M7.4 a ta depth of 26 km (15 miles). The epicenter was located 21.3 km (13.2 miles) NE of Hinatuan (population 10 055), 31.6 km (19.7 miles) ENE of Tagbina (population 10 672), 37.6 km (23.4 miles) NNE of Bislig (population 67 567), 40.7 km (25.3 miles) ESE of Lianga (population 13 623), and 110.1 km (68.4 miles) ESE of Butuan (population 309 709), Caraga, Philippines. 1.7 million people are living within 100 km (62 miles). 1 240 000 people are estimated to have felt very strong shaking, 2 865 000 strong, 7 028 000 moderate and 19 275 000 light. Based on preliminary earthquake parameters, hazardous tsunami waves are possible for coasts located within 1 000 km (620 miles) of the earthquake epicenter, NWS PTWC in Honolulu said at 14:44 UTC. Estimated times of arrival -ETA- of the initial tsunami wave for places with a potential tsunami threat: [table]
- A tsunami is a series of waves. The time between wave crests can vary from 5 minutes to an hour. The hazard may persist for many hours or longer after the initial wave.
- Impacts can vary significantly from one section of coast to the next due to local bathymetry and the shape and elevation of the shoreline.
- Impacts can also vary depending upon the state of the tide at the time of the maximum tsunami waves.
- Persons caught in the water of a tsunami may drown, be crushed by debris in the water, or be swept out to sea.
In an update posted at 15:35 UTC, NWS PTWC said tsunami waves reaching 1 to 3 m (3.3 – 10 feet) above the tide level are possible along some coasts of the Philippines. Tsunami waves reaching 0.3 to 1 m (1 – 3.3 feet) are possible for some coats of Palau. Tsunami waves are forecast to be less than 0.3 m (1 feet) above the tide level for the coasts of American Samoa, China, Chuuk, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Hawaii, Howland and Baker, Indonesia, Japan, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kiribati, Kosrae, Malaysia, Marshall Islands, Midway Island, Nauru, Northern Marianas, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, Palmyra Island, Papua New Guinea, Pohnpei, Republic of Korea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Taiwan, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wake Island, Wallis and Futuna, and Yap.
High-level eruption at Marapi volcano, ash to 15 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., Indonesia - (video) A high-level eruption started at Indonesia’s Marapi volcano at 08:00 UTC on December 3, 2023. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. According to the Darwin VAAC, volcanic ash was clearly identifiable on satellite, rising up to 15 km (50 000 feet) above sea level by 08:40 UTC, drifting WSW. The eruption was accompanied by a pyroclastic flow on the volcano’s northern slope, with a sliding distance of 3 km (1.8 miles). Dozens of hikers were stranded on the slopes of the volcano as it began its sudden and explosive eruption. Indonesian rescuers have discovered the bodies of 11 climbers by Monday morning, December 4. Despite the challenging conditions, three individuals were found alive on the volcano, while the search continues for at least 12 climbers, with another estimate suggesting as many as 22 might still be missing. Jodi Haryawan, a spokesperson for the local rescue agency, informed Agence France-Presse that the rescue operations have been intermittently disrupted by ongoing eruptions. However, the teams have persisted in their efforts. “Once it was safer they continued the search. So the search was not halted,” Haryawan stated, emphasizing the dedication and risks undertaken by the rescue team. Earlier on Monday, 49 climbers were successfully evacuated from the area, with many receiving treatment for burns. Abdul Malik, the head of the Padang Search and Rescue Agency, provided an update on Sunday: “There are 26 people who have not been evacuated, we have found 14 of them, three were found alive and 11 were found dead.” Malik also reported that there were a total of 75 hikers on the mountain since Saturday. This eruption was recorded on a seismograph with a maximum amplitude of 30 mm and a duration of 4 minutes 41 seconds, PVMBG said, adding that it was not preceded by a significant increase in volcanic earthquakes.
Death toll rises to 23 after sudden eruption at Marapi volcano, Indonesia - A major eruption at Mount Marapi in Indonesia on Sunday, December 3, 2023, has led to a confirmed death toll of 23. Rescuers, facing challenging conditions, found additional bodies near the eruption site. The volcano, remaining on high alert since 2011, unexpectedly erupted, impacting climbers and nearby villagers. The sudden and major eruption of Mount Marapi in Indonesia on December 3, 2023, has resulted in a tragic loss of lives, with the death toll now confirmed at 23. The eruption, which started at 08:00 UTC, was characterized by a high-level volcanic activity that sent ash as high as 15 km (50 000 feet) into the air. The eruption also produced a pyroclastic flow on the volcano’s northern slope, covering a distance of 3 km (1.8 miles). This sudden eruption left dozens of hikers stranded and blanketed nearby villages and towns with volcanic debris, prompting authorities to recommend protective measures against the ash. More than 50 climbers were initially rescued following the eruption, but subsequent eruptions, including one on December 4 that spewed hot ash 800 meters (2 620 feet) high, have hindered rescue efforts. Edi Mardianto, West Sumatra’s deputy police chief, reported the discovery of more bodies near the eruption site. According to Mardianto, 18 victims are presumed dead due to their proximity to the hot gases and ash. Mount Marapi has been under the third-highest of four alert levels since 2011, as indicated by Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation. This level signifies above-normal volcanic activity and prohibits anyone from coming within 3 km (1.8 miles) of the peak. While climbers were permitted in areas below this danger zone and required to register at command posts or online, local officials noted that many may have ascended beyond the allowed limits. Additionally, residents might have been present in the restricted area. These factors have made it challenging to ascertain the exact number of individuals affected by the eruption. About 1 400 people reside on Marapi’s slopes, with the nearest villages located 5 to 6 km (3.1 – 3.7 miles) from the peak. The volcano is known for its unpredictable eruptions, which are difficult to detect due to the shallow source near the peak. Unlike other volcanoes, Marapi’s eruptions are not caused by deep magma movements but rather by shallower processes that do not produce noticeable seismic activity.
Powerful paroxysmal eruption at Etna volcano, Italy - Mount Etna, one of the world’s most active volcanoes, once again showcased its might with a striking paroxysmal eruption on the evening of December 1, 2023. The eruption was characterized by spectacular lava fountains and intense volcanic activity, visible from great distances and capturing widespread attention. A dense column of volcanic ash rose to about 9 km (30 000 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. Mount Etna entered a new phase of paroxysmal activity starting around 18:00 UTC on December 1, 2023. The eruption was anticipated following a week of increasing signs of volcanic unrest, as reported by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 17:08 UTC and lowered back to Orange at 22:38. Lava fountains were seen rising at least 500 m (1 640 feet) in height and feeding two lava flows toward the E and SW of the cone. A dense column of volcanic ash rose to about 9 km (30 000 feet) above sea level, drifting east. (photos) In the days leading up to the event, Etna’s South-East Crater exhibited a rhythmic pattern of Strombolian activity, with eruptive episodes occurring every 10 – 15 minutes. This pattern was reminiscent of activity observed in previous years, suggesting a balance between the rising magma and its subsequent eruption. The INGV’s monitoring networks had been closely observing the volcano’s behavior. Prior to the eruption, over 250 Strombolian episodes were recorded between November 19 and December 1. These “mini-eruptions” were marked by intervals of calm, followed by a sudden increase in intensity, ejecting incandescent lava fragments and gas. The eruption’s audible impact was significant, with thunderous detonations shaking the windows of nearby villages, causing concern among the local population. The frequency and intensity of these episodes indicated a high level of volcanic activity, leading to the spectacular event witnessed on December 1. Etna’s eruptive history includes a variety of scenarios, from mild Strombolian activity to more intense paroxysmal events. The recent eruption falls into the latter category. According to INGV scientists, such events are typically caused by a delicate balance in the magma dynamics within Etna’s conduit system.
Multiple CMEs impact Earth, sparking G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm - Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced on November 27 and 28, 2023, impacted Earth on November 30 and December 1, sparking G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm. Similarly to the last G3 storm, on November 5, spectacular aurora sightings were reported from both hemispheres. The solar wind parameters observed during the 24-hour period ending at 00:30 UTC on December 2, 2023, signaled the arrival of multiple CMEs, initially detected on November 27 and 28. The first notable CME impact, which occurred at 23:37 UTC on November 30, led to an increase in solar wind velocity from about 335 km/s to approximately 440 km/s. Concurrently, the total magnetic field strength showed a significant rise from 5 nT to 12 nT. A second CME, produced by M9.8 solar flare on November 28, was observed at 08:53 UTC on December 1, causing further escalations in solar wind speeds from approximately 406 km/s to near 510 km/s. During this event, the total magnetic field also experienced an increase, moving from 15 nT to 25 nT. Throughout the remainder of the observation period, the total field fluctuated between 13 nT and 28 nT, while solar wind speeds varied from around 480 km/s to 560 km/s. The Bz component of the magnetic field ranged around +/-26 nT, with a variable Phi angle. Similarly to the last G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm, on November 5, spectacular aurora sightings were reported from both hemispheres.Forecasts indicate that the influence of these CMEs is expected to persist through midday on December 2, followed by a gradual recovery towards nominal conditions through December 3. Early on December 4, a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is anticipated to become geoeffective, potentially increasing solar wind speeds to the range of 600 – 700 km/s, based on historical recurrence patterns.In terms of geospace impact, the geomagnetic field was observed at active to G3 – Strong storm levels due to the CME arrivals from November 27 and 28.The forecast suggests that the geomagnetic field will experience unsettled to G2 – Moderate storm levels, with a possibility of G3 – Strong storming on December 2 as the effects of the CMEs continue. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on December 3 as the activity slowly wanes.Unsettled to G2 – Moderate storm levels are likely again on December 4 as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.
Geomagnetic storm likely to impact Earth through Tuesday: What we know — Last week, many were treated to a dazzling display of auroras thanks to strong solar activity. This week, the Earth is likely to be impacted by even more solar activity, without the aerial color show. Over the weekend, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued a geomagnetic storm watch for Monday and Tuesday, saying a “high speed stream from a coronal hole is expected to influence the Earth” on both days. Arrival was set for Monday morning, according to SWPC. They even shared this minorly daunting image of the sun, which shows the coronal hole. Does this mean the sun is about to explode or the Earth is going to melt? No, but there are some other impacts we may experience. What you’re seeing in the image above is, as we mentioned, a coronal hole. It appears darker than the rest of the sun because the area is cooler and less dense than the surrounding plasma, according to NOAA. Areas such as this one are “unipolar magnetic fields,” which allow solar wind to release into space “more readily.” These events happen often, Rob Steenburgh of NOAA’s Space Weather Forecast office previously told Nexstar. Coronal holes and their associated solar winds are able to cause geomagnetic storms like the one the SWPC is warning about this week. The SWPC uses a scale, similar to those used to measure tornadoes or hurricanes, to categorize the strength of a geomagnetic storm. The impending storm is expected to reach G1 or G2 strength, falling on the lower end of the five-point scale. A G1 storm can bring the northern lights to Maine and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, while a moderate G2 storm can shine them as far south as New York and Idaho. Late last week, we experienced a G3 level storm, capable of bringing the northern lights as far south as northern Missouri. While the northern lights are harmless, the solar activity associated with geomagnetic storms can impact our navigation, communication and radio signals. We’ve seen some of those serious impacts before. There was the Great Halloween Solar Storms of 2003 caused by a series of powerful CMEs, NOAA reports. They brought dazzling northern lights displays as far south as California, Texas, and Florida — states that rarely ever see them — and caused other (less awe-inspiring) technical problems. Half of the spacecraft orbiting Earth were impacted, causing disruptions to GPS, radio communication and satellite TV. A satellite was damaged beyond repair while astronauts aboard the International Space Station had to shield themselves from high radiation. On Earth, science groups in Antarctica lost communications for five days and GPS systems elsewhere were affected. This storm likely won’t have that large of an impact. In fact, unless you do get a glimpse at the northern lights Monday night, you probably won’t notice the storm has influenced earth at all. You can, however, expect to see the northern lights more often in the coming months. The sun is nearing the peak of its Solar Cycle 25, an 11-year period in which it flips its north and south poles. During this time, various space weather events can occur that can bring geomagnetic storms — and the northern lights — to us on Earth.
Impulsive M5.4 solar flare erupts from Region 3511, multiple filament eruptions - (video) An impulsive solar flare measuring M5.4 erupted from Active Region 3511 at 23:07 UTC on December 8, 2023. The event started at 22:57 UTC and ended at 23:14. There were no radio signatures detected that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of the source region — close to the Sun’s western limb — does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. This was the largest event in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on December 9. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. Regions 3511 and 3513 (N19E27, Eai/beta-gamma) were responsible for the bulk of the C-class flare activity observed during this period. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Regions 3507 (N07W53, Cso/beta), 3510 (S15W48, Hax/alpha), and 3513. Slight growth occurred in the leader spots of Region 3511. Additionally, two new spots rotated onto the SE limb and were numbered 3515 (S15E74, Hax/alpha) and 3516 (S19E74, Hsx/alpha). During the same period, several filament eruptions were recorded. The first was a 40-degree filament near N40E50 that started at 01:00 UTC on December 8. Its associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), observed off the northwest limb at 04:28 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, is not expected to impact Earth. Another filament eruption near S20E05 occurred at 05:07 UTC, but no discernible CME was observed in coronagraph imagery. An asymmetric halo CME observed at 16:24 UTC was determined to be backsided, indicating no Earth-directed threat. Furthermore, the CME emanating from the southwest limb at 21:24 UTC on December 7, linked to a large prominence eruption at 19:36 UTC on the same day, was analyzed and deemed not to have an Earth-directed component.
November is the sixth straight month to set a heat record, scientists say(AP) — For the sixth month in a row, Earth set a new monthly record for heat, and also added the hottest autumn to the litany of record-breaking heat this year, the European climate agency calculated. And with only one month left, 2023 is on the way to smashing the record for hottest year.November was nearly a third of a degree Celsius (0.57 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than the previous hottest November, the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Climate Change Service announced early Wednesday. November was 1.75 degrees Celsius (3.15 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, tying October and behind September, for the hottest above average for any month, the scientists said.“The last half year has truly been shocking,” said Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess. “Scientists are running out of adjectives to describe this.’’November averaged 14.22 degrees Celsius (57.6 degrees Fahrenheit), which is 0.85 degrees Celsius (1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the average the last 30 years. Two days during the month were 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, something that hadn’t happened before, according to Burgess.So far this year is 1.46 degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, about a seventh of a degree warmer than the previous warmest year of 2016, Copernicus scientists calculated. That’s very close to the international threshold the world set for climate change. The 2015 Paris climate agreement set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times over the long term and failing that at least 2 degrees (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Diplomats, scientists, activists and others meeting at the United Nations climate conference in Dubai for nearly two weeks are trying to find ways to limit warming to those levels, but the planet isn’t cooperating.
A new 66 million-year history of carbon dioxide offers little comfort for today -A massive new review of ancient atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels and corresponding temperatures lays out a daunting picture of where the Earth's climate may be headed. The study covers geologic records spanning the past 66 million years, putting present-day concentrations into context with deep time.Among other things, it indicates that the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide consistently reached today's human-driven levels was 14 million years ago—much longer ago than some existing assessments indicate. It asserts that long-term climate is highly sensitive to greenhouse gas, with cascading effects that may evolve over many millennia.The study was assembled over seven years by a consortium of more than 80 researchers from 16 nations. It appears in the journal Science."We have long known that adding CO2 to our atmosphere raises the temperature," said Bärbel Hönisch, a geochemist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, who coordinated the consortium. "This study gives us a much more robust idea of how sensitive the climate is over long time scales."Temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide over the past 66 million years. Bottom numbers indicate millions of years in the past; right-hand numbers, carbon dioxide in parts per million. Hotter colors indicate distinct periods of higher temperatures; deeper blues, lower ones. Mainstream estimates indicate that on scales of decades to centuries, every doubling of atmospheric CO2 will drive average global temperatures 1.5 to 4.5° Celsius (2.7 to 8.1° Fahrenheit) higher. However, at least one recent widely read study argues that the current consensus underestimates planetary sensitivity, putting it at 3.6 to 6°C of warming per doubling.In any case, given current trends, all estimates put the planet perilously close to or beyond the 2° warming that could be reached this century, and which many scientists agree we must avoid if at all possible.In the late 1700s, the air contained about 280 parts per million (ppm) of CO2. We are now up to 420 ppm, an increase of about 50%; by the end of the century, we could reach 600 ppm or more. As a result, we are already somewhere along the uncertain warming curve, with a rise of about 1.2° C (2.2° F) since the late 19th century.Whatever temperatures eventually manifest, most estimates of future warming draw information from studies of how temperatures tracked with CO2 levels in the past. For this, scientists analyze materials including air bubbles trapped in ice cores, the chemistry of ancient soils and ocean sediments, and the anatomy of fossil plant leaves.The consortium's members did not collect new data; rather, they came together to sort through published studies to assess their reliability, based on evolving knowledge. They excluded some that that they found outdated or incomplete in the light of new findings, and recalibrated others to account for the latest analytical techniques. Then they calculated a new 66-million-year curve of CO2versus temperatures based on all the evidence so far, coming to a consensus on what they call "Earth system sensitivity." By this measure, they say, a doubling of CO2 is predicted to warm the planet a whopping 5 to 8° C.The giant caveat: Earth system sensitivity describes climate changes over hundreds of thousands of years, not the decades and centuries that are immediately relevant to humans. The authors say that over long periods, increases in temperature may emerge from intertwined Earth processes that go beyond the immediate greenhouse effect created by CO2 in the air. These include melting of polar ice sheets, which would reduce the Earth's ability to reflect solar energy; changes in terrestrial plant cover; and changes in clouds and atmospheric aerosols that could either heighten or lower temperatures. "If you want us to tell you what the temperature will be in the year 2100, this does not tell you that. But it tells us that there are sluggish, cascading effects that will last for thousands of years."
Researchers: The climate change we caused is here for at least 50,000 years—and probably far longer = The idea of an entirely new and human-created new geological epoch, representing an Earth transformed by the effects of industrialized humanity. is a sobering scenario as context for the current UNclimate summit, COP28. The impact of decisions made at these and other similar conferences will be felt not just beyond our own lives and those of our children, but perhaps beyond the life of human society as we know it.The Anthropocene is now in wide currency, but when Crutzen first spoke, this was still a novel suggestion. In support of his new brain-child, Crutzen cited many planetary symptoms: enormous deforestation, the mushrooming of dams across the world's large rivers, overfishing, a planet's nitrogen cycle overwhelmed by fertilizer use, and the rapid rise in greenhouse gases.As for climate change itself, well, the warning bells were ringing, certainly. Global mean surface temperatures had risen by about half a degree since the mid-20th century. But, they were still within the norm for an interglacial phase of the ice ages. Among many emerging problems, climate seemed one for the future.A little more than two decades on, the future has arrived. By 2022, global temperature had climbed another half a degree, the past nine years being the hottest since records began. And 2023 has seen climate records being not just broken, but smashed.By September there had already been 38 days when global average temperatures exceeded pre-industrial ones by 1.5°C, the safe limit of warmingset by the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris agreement. In previous years that was rare, and before 2000 this milestone had never been recorded. With this leap in temperatures came record-breaking heat waves, wildfires and floods, exacerbated by other local human actions. Climate has moved center stage on an Anthropocene Earth. Why this surge in temperatures? In part, it's been the inexorable rise ingreenhouse gases, as fossil fuels continue to dominate human energy use. When Crutzen spoke in Mexico, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were about 370 parts per million (ppm), already up from the pre-industrial 280 ppm. They're nowaround 420 ppm, and climbing by some 2 ppm per year. In part, the warming results from cleaner skies in the past few years, both on land and at sea, thanks to new regulations phasing out old power stations and dirty sulfur-rich fuels. As the industrial haze clears, more of the sun's energy makes it through the atmosphere and onto land, and the full force of global warming kicks in.In part, our planet's heat-reflecting mirrors are shrinking, as sea ice melts away, initially in the Arctic, and in the last two years, precipitously, around Antarctica too. And climate feedbacks seem to be taking effect, too. A new, sharp rise in atmospheric methane—a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide—since 2006 seems to be sourced from an increase in rotting vegetation in tropical wetlands in a warming world. This latest warming step has already taken the Earth into levels of climate warmth not experienced for some 120,000 years, into those of the last interglacial phase, a little warmer than the current one. There is yet more warming in the pipeline over coming centuries, as various feedbacks take effect. A recent study on the effects of this warming on Antarctica's ice suggests that "policymakers should be prepared for several meters of sea-level rise over the coming centuries" as the pulse of warmth spreads through the oceans to undermine the great polar ice-sheets. This remains the case even in the most optimistic scenario where carbon dioxide emissions are reduced quickly. But emissions continue to rise steeply, to deepen the climate impact.
Understanding climate tipping points - As the planet warms, many parts of the Earth system are undergoing large-scale changes. Ice sheets are shrinking, sea levels are rising and coral reefs are dying off.While climate records are being continuously broken, the cumulative impact of these changes could also cause fundamental parts of the Earth system to change dramatically. These 'tipping points' of climate change are critical thresholds in that, if exceeded, can lead to irreversible consequences.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), tipping points are "critical thresholds in a system that, when exceeded, can lead to a significant change in the state of the system, often with an understanding that the change is irreversible." In essence, climate tipping points are elements of the Earth system in which small changes can kick off reinforcing loops that "tip" a system from one stable state into a profoundly different state. For example, a rise in global temperatures because of fossil fuel burning, further down the line, triggers a change like a rainforest becoming a dry savannah. This change is propelled by self-perpetuating feedback loops, even if what was driving the change in the system stops. The system—in this case the forest—may remain "tipped" even if the temperature falls below the threshold again.This shift from one state to the other may take decades or even centuries to find a new, stable state. But if tipping points are being crossed now, or within the next decade, their full impact might not become apparent for hundreds or thousands of years. On top of that, the crossing of one tipping point could lead to the triggering of further tipping elements—unleashing a domino-effect chain reaction and could lead to some places becoming less suitable for sustaining human and natural systems. For example: the Arctic is warming almost four times faster than anywhere else in the world, accelerating ice melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet (and the melting of Arctic sea ice). This in turn could be what is slowing down the ocean's circulation of heat, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), in turn impacting the monsoon system over South America. Monsoon changes may be contributing to the rising frequency of droughts over the Amazon rainforest, lowering its carbon storage capacity and intensifying climate warming. The impacts of such a "tipping cascade," crossing multiple climate tipping points, could be more severe and widespread. In the early 2000s, a range of tipping elements were first identified and were thought that they would be reached in the event of a 4°C increase in global temperatures. Since then, science has advanced tremendously and there have been many studies on tipping-point behavior and interactions among tipping-element systems. These elements broadly fall into three categories—cryosphere, ocean-atmosphere, and biosphere—and range from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet to the death of coral reefs. According to the newly published Global Tipping Points Report, five major tipping systems are already at risk of crossing tipping points at the present level of global warming: the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, permafrost regions, coral reef die-offs and the Labrador Sea and subpolar gyre circulation.Recent assessments found that even exceeding 1.5°C of global warming risks crossing several of these thresholds for tipping points.
Carbon hot spots discovered near California coast -- Scientists exploring the Northern California coast have, for the first time, uncovered a treasure trove of carbon compacted on the seafloor—a discovery that may help unravel the ocean's power to combat climate change. A reserve spanning 6,000 square miles of sanctuary from Point Arena in Mendocino County south to Point Año Nuevo in San Mateo County stores 9 million metric tons of carbon on the surface of the seafloor, according to a study released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries. The amount of carbon found sitting on the seafloor's first 4 inches equates to the CO2 emissions generated by 7.3 million gas-powered vehicles driven for one year or expended to power 6.4 million homes for a year, according to the Environmental Protection Agencies' greenhouse gas equivalencies calculator. Researchers stressed that while this is a significant discovery, leaving it undisturbed is crucial in allowing further carbon accumulation. "This isn't a resource to be utilized, but it's to be kept intact," said Doug George, an ocean scientist at NOAA and the study's co-author. The findings confirm that the ocean becomes the final resting place for greenery and dead wildlife washed from rivers, as well as marine life that dies and sinks to the seafloor. That results in more carbon being locked away in the oceans, which helps correct the CO2 imbalance in the atmosphere, according to the study. The study's lead author, Sara Hutto, explained that Earth has a set amount of carbon. Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have dug up massive amounts of fossil fuels that took millenniums to form underground. By doing so, carbon is taken out of the planet and burned, releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and changing the carbon-to-carbon-dioxide balance. "We want to make sure that we are not contributing to the climate problem but that we are doing everything we can to enhance the ocean's natural sponge-like ability to absorb carbon dioxide," Hutto said in an interview. She believes her team's study proves the ocean cannot be ignored when discussing climate solutions. She said the sea is vital, given its ability to hold most of the world's carbon, absorb the heat created by emissions, and produce one-third of the world's oxygen.
COP28: US touts climate leadership as oil and gas output hits record - U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris sought to claim the mantle of global climate leadership for the United States on Saturday in a speech to the COP28 summit, listing a slew of initiatives to cut emissions and harness renewable energy in the world's largest oil and gas producer. The address came on the second day of back-to-back speeches by world leaders at the conference in Dubai, where nearly 200 nations are hashing out an international approach to tackling global warming and debating whether fossil fuels should maintain a role in a future energy economy. "Two years ago, President Joe Biden stood on stage at COP26 and made a declaration of ambition: The United States of America will once again be a global leader in the fight against the climate crisis," Harris said. "Since then, the United States has turned ambition into action." She listed the more than $400 billion in subsidies provided by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, Biden's signature climate law, which has triggered a flood of clean energy investment. She also announced a new $3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund, which helps developing countries combat global warming. On the sidelines of the conference, the United States also unveiled new measures to curb emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane from oil and gas operations. "Today, we are demonstrating through action how the world can and must meet this crisis," Harris said. The United States, the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter behind China, has seen a surge in investment for clean energy projects ranging from solar farms to wind turbines and electric vehicle battery factories in recent years. But it has also grown into the globe's biggest producer of oil and gas - the main source of climate emissions - following a technology-driven drilling boom in the sprawling Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. That awkward coincidence underscores one of COP28's most contentious questions: Can the world's response to climate change involve continuing use of fossil fuels? Among the decisions nations must make will be whether to agree, for the first time, to gradually "phase out" fossil fuels and replace them with renewable energy sources. Harris told the conference that the United States supports phasing out of "unabated coal" use, but she did not mention other fossil fuels. The COP28 host, OPEC-member United Arab Emirates, hopes to sell a vision of a low-carbon future that includes, not shuns, fossil fuels – mainly through the use of technologies that can capture carbon dioxide to keep it from the atmosphere, or by making oil and gas operations cleaner.
COP28 president draws fierce backlash with attack on climate science -At this year’s United Nations climate conference (COP28), the summit’s president Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber — who also leads the United Arab Emirates’s national oil company — sparked controversy over the weekend by attacking the science on climate change.“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phaseout of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C,” al-Jaber said Sunday, referring to the temperature line scientists have agreed is the limit for safe levels of planetary heating.The comments drew forceful criticism from across the climate movement, prompting al-Jaber to walk them back Monday.“I respect the science in everything I do,” he said. “I have said over and over that the phase-down and the phaseout of fossil fuels is inevitable.”But al-Jaber’s defense of fossil fuels as a safe long-term energy source stands in sharp contrast to the global scientific consensus backing a shift towards renewable energies — which are increasingly outcompeting fossil fuel sources on price, as well as in terms of the safety of the climate.He was not alone in making the argument for continuing to use fossil fuels: He was joined over the weekend by Exxon CEO Darren Woods, who told Reuters on Sunday that no solution, including renewables, was “at the scale to solve the problem.”The two fossil fuel executives both contended that renewable energy sources aren’t ready to bear the brunt of a global energy system historically reliant on fossil fuels — and that therefore world governments have little choice but to make those sources less damaging to the climate.That is an idea that the International Energy Agency (IEA) — a leading global energy watchdog initially set up to maintain the consistent supply of oil — forcefully pushed back on in November.The focus of the argument was carbon capture and storage — a technology which retrieves planet-heating gases from power plants and industrial processes.While carbon capture technology is unproven at scale, an IEA report on the role of the fossil fuel industry in the transition to renewables found that it plays an important role in slowing the rate of planetary heating — particularly for processes like manufacturing cement, which chemically releases carbon dioxide even when produced without fossil fuels. But to argue that it will allow the fossil fuel industry to continue “with business-as-usual … is a fantasy,” IEA head Fatih Birol wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
Cop: Cop 28 president Al-Jaber 'clear' about 1.5°C --President of the Cop 28 UN climate conference Sultan Al-Jaber is "very clear about" the target to limit global warming to 1.5°C and "how fossil fuels are on the agenda", the summit's director-general Majid al-Suwaidi told reporters on Monday, in response to controversy sparked by comments Al-Jaber made last month. A video recorded on 21 November surfaced yesterday in which Al-Jaber said that there is "no science out there or no scenario out there that says phasing out fossil fuels is what is going to achieve 1.5C". The comments have prompted strong reactions from scientists and environmentalists, with some accusing him of "denying" the science. Al-Jaber's role as chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state-owned oil firm Adnoc placed him under intense scrutiny in the run-up to Cop 28. The latest criticism is a "reflection of how there are those out there that have been consistently trying to undermine the presidency from day one", according to al-Suwaidi. Al-Jaber has been "very clear on the science" and he was talking "of course" about "net zero by 2050", al-Suwaidi said. "We all know and that is very clear in all the scientific reports that fossil fuels are going to be part of that mix and he [Al-Jaber] has spoken very clearly that he thinks the phase down of fossil fuels is inevitable", he added. "What he was asking [in the video] is how do we do this". The video was recorded at an online event at which Al-Jaber was asked if he would take the lead on a setting a target to phase out all fossil fuels at Cop 28. The questioner pointed to Adnoc's plan to increase its oil production. The firm has already raised its crude production capacity to 4.65mn b/d and is targeting a further expansion to 5mn b/d by 2027. The IPCC — the leading scientific authority on climate change — said earlier this year that net zero calls for "a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the remaining fossil fuel systems". Developing new oil and gas fields is incompatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, it said. In its net zero by 2050 scenario, the IEA also said that no new oil fields should be developed if the goals of the Paris Agreement are to be met. The Paris climate accord set a target of keeping global warming to "well below 2°C" above pre-industrial averages, and preferably to 1.5°C. At last month's online event, Al-Jaber outlined the challenge of phasing out fossil fuels. "Show me a roadmap for the phase out of fossil fuels that will allow for social sustainable economic development unless you want the world to be back into caves," he said. "We are the only ones today that have been decarbonising energy resources, we have the lowest carbon intensity," he added. Earlier this year, Al-Jaber called for a 30-fold rise in CCS capacity. "The IPCC has been saying since 2016 that carbon capture is an essential enabler for curbing emissions, yet there is still only 44mn t/yr of operational carbon capture [capacity] worldwide," he said.
Open secret at climate talks: The top temperature goal is mostly gone - Leading scientists worldwide delivered a striking dose of reality to the United Nations on Sunday: it’s “becoming inevitable” that countries will miss the ambitious target they set eight years ago for limiting the warming of the Earth. The ominous estimate points to the growing likelihood that global warming will shoot past 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of this century, inflicting what scientists describe as an overwhelming toll from intensifying storms, drought and heat on people and the economy. It also injects an urgent message into global climate talks in Dubai, where the debate over ramping down fossil fuels is set to flare over the next two weeks. Surpassing the temperature threshold — even temporarily — would be a major blow to the international Paris climate agreement from 2015, which called for nations to keep global temperatures well within 2 degrees Celsius of their preindustrial levels, and within 1.5 degrees if at all possible. The findings come amid climate talks that for the first time are focused on taking stock of whether almost 200 nations are meeting that goal. Early indications offer a bleak picture.The 1.5-degree target has become a rallying point for nations attending the COP28 climate talks, despite rising certainty among scientists that the world will spill over that threshold, potentially within a decade. Temperatures have already risen between 1.1 and 1.3 degrees.It may be possible to bring global temperatures back down again, using still-unproven technological means to draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. But at least some overshoot is probably unavoidable, scientists said in the new report to the U.N.The looming shadow of overshoot is one of 10 stark warnings the researchers presented Sunday in an annual report on top climate science insights from the past year. The report is presented each year to the U.N. during its annual climate conference. Mountain glaciers are swiftly shrinking. Natural landscapes, like forests and wetlands, may soak up less carbon dioxide as the planet warms, causing more pollution to linger in the atmosphere. Compound climate events — multiple extreme weather disasters happening at the same time or in rapid succession — are a growing threat. The report also includes insights on the links between climate change and biodiversity loss, the role that food systems can play in reducing carbon emissions, the plight of global populations that lack resources to relocate in the face of worsening climate impacts, and the importance of just and equitable climate adaptation efforts. But its findings on the 1.5-degree target are among its starkest conclusions. Nations have not reduced greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to stay on track, the report finds. The world can emit only a certain amount of carbon before the 1.5-degree target slips out of reach, and recent studies suggest that threshold will arrive in about six years if humans keep burning carbon at their current rates.
Gore says UAE ‘abusing the public’s trust’ with COP28 host selection - Former Vice President Al Gore on Sunday criticized the United Arab Emirates over its decision to make Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO of the UAE’s national oil and gas company, the host of the COP28 climate summit.“They are abusing the public’s trust by naming the CEO of one of the largest and least responsible oil companies in the world as head of the COP,” Gore told Reuters in an interview at the conference in Dubai.The climate summit has faced scrutiny for being held in a nation that produces vast amounts of fossil fuels, which play a significant role in worsening the climate crisis. Gore questioned how much al-Jaber can be trusted to achieve progress in global climate deals.Gore, a longtime climate activist, also took aim at oil and gas companies for being present at the conference, including Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods making his first appearance at the summit.“He should not be taken seriously. He’s protecting his profits and placing them in a higher priority than the survival of the human civilization,” Gore told Reuters of Woods. Environmental activists blasted the decision to appoint al-Jaber as head of the conference at the time, saying such a move was hypocritical.He also faced a recent wave of criticism after the Centre for Climate Reporting and the BBC published documents last week that appear to show the UAE plans to use the summit to pitch foreign countries on oil and gas deals.Gore ran unsuccessfully for the White House as the Democratic nominee in 2000. He later founded the Climate Reality Project in 2005, which is a nonprofit organization that is working to end the climate crisis.In his interview with Reuters, he reiterated the need to end the use of fossil fuels without carbon capture technology, which is a concept where captured carbon dioxide is transported and stored deep underground.“The current state of the technology for carbon capture and direct air capture is a research project,” Gore said. “There’s been no cost reduction for 50 years and there is a pretense on the part of the fossil fuel companies that it is a readily available, economically viable technology.”
COP28: UAE to export cloud-seeding technology to water-scarce countries - Given its advancement in cloud seeding, the UAE will actively share its knowledge and experience in rain-enhancement technology to help address water scarcity in many parts of the world. This was shared by Omar Al Yazeedi, deputy director general of the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), to Khaleej Times on the sidelines of the ongoing COP28 or the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Dubai. The announcement came following the pledge made by the UAE on Saturday to allocate $150 million in new funding for water security solutions in vulnerable countries. Water is on top of the UAE’s agenda at the UN Climate Summit, where water experts are actively taking part to address the challenges of global warming. Al Yazeedi noted the UAE has been at the forefront of rain-enhancement science for more than two decades, and cloud-seeding has helped increase the country’s annual rainfall and reduced its reliance on seawater desalination. “We are happy to share our knowledge with other countries participating at COP28,” he added.
Maghreb farmers embrace drones to fight climate change - A drone buzzed back and forth above rows of verdant orange trees planted near Nabeul, eastern Tunisia. The black unmanned aircraft, equipped with a multi-lens camera and sensors, has been enlisted by Tunisian farmers to help adapt to years of drought and erratic weather patterns caused by climate change. "The seasons are not like they were before where we knew exactly what to do," said farmer Yassine Gargouri, noting temperatures now can begin to climb as early as May while in August there have been unusual summer rains. He hired start-up RoboCare to scan the trees from the air and assess their hydration levels, soil quality and overall health -- to prevent irreversible damage. The technology "provides us with information on how much water each plant needs, no more, no less", he said. The use of modern technologies in agriculture is globally on the rise, including in North Africa where countries rank among the world's 33 most water-stressed, according to the World Resources Institute. RoboCare, employing about 10 people, is the only company in Tunisia, according to its 35-year-old founder Imen Hbiri, to use drones to help farmers combat the impacts of climate change and reduce costs, crop losses and water consumption. "Resorting to modern technologies in the sector of agriculture has become inevitable," Hbiri told AFP while monitoring the drone's path on her computer screen.
Why dimming the sun would be an effective tool in the fight against climate change - It's becoming increasingly clear that we will fail to meet our climate goals. We were already at 1.26°C of warming in 2022 and are on track to blow through1.5°C in the mid-2030s. Research even suggests that current climate policy will lead to more than 2.5°C of warming by the end of this century.Warming of this magnitude would devastate vulnerable communities and ecosystems around the world. It's time we consider something radically new that could stopclimate change in its tracks.After powerful volcanic eruptions, like Tambora (Indonesia) in 1815 and Pinatubo (Philippines) in 1991, global temperatures dip for a few years. Major eruptions create a hazy layer of microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere that last for several years, dimming the sun temporarily. We could copy this effect to fight climate change.The Earth is warmed by the sun, but it is kept warm by greenhouse gases that trap the heat our planet gives off. The warming effect of our CO₂ emissions could be countered by creating a persistent, artificial haze like those seen following major volcanic eruptions. Research has found that we would only need to dim the sun by around 1% to cool the planet by 1°C.This may sound unlikely. But every engineering assessment to date has concluded that it would be feasible and relatively cheap to do using a fleet of high-flying jets to release reflective particles into the upper atmosphere.Dimming the sun wouldn't perfectly reverse climate change. The sun's warming effect is strongest during the day, in the summer and at the Tropics, whereas greenhouse gases warm everywhere and at all times. However, we could create an even cooling effect across the world by adjusting where we release the particles. Research suggests that such an approach wouldgreatly reduce climate risks.Rising temperatures really matter. Species around the world are on the move, tracking familiar temperatures polewards as the planet warms up. But many won't be able to keep pace with the changing climate and others have nowhere to go, so extinctions are projected to increase.We are also seeing extreme heat that is edging closer to the absolute limits of the human body, putting lives at risk and limiting outdoor work.As the planet heats up, warmer air is drawing more moisture from the soil in dry times, and dumping more out at once when it rains. This is making dry regions drier, wet regions wetter, and is intensifying both droughts and floods across the world.Dimming the sun would offset this effect. But it would still alter global wind and rainfall patterns.Research indicates that this would mean smaller rainfall changes overall. However, a small minority of places could see more pronounced changes in rainfall compared to what they would face under climate change. Climate models disagree on the details of regional rainfall changes, so it's unclear at this stage which regions would see the greatest change.Blocking some sunlight would also be an effective way of keeping icy parts of the world frozen. Rising temperatures are causing the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to melt at an accelerating rate, driving up the global sea level. Climate change is also thawing permafrost (frozen soil that stores vast amounts of carbon) leading to the emission of more of methane and CO₂.
Biden administration issues rule to cut methane emissions from oil and gas -- The Biden administration on Saturday announced new regulations that are expected to deliver significant cuts to the greenhouse gas methane in the oil and gas sector. The rule, finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), tees up emissions reductions for both new oil and wells and, for the first time, existing oil and gas wells. An EPA press release said the rule is expected to prevent 58 million tons of methane from entering the atmosphere between 2024 and 2038. These emissions savings are the climate equivalent of taking 28 million gas-powered cars off the road for a year. Methane is a planet-warming gas that’s about 28 times more potent than carbon dioxide and is responsible for about 25 percent of global warming. It mainly comes from the production and transport of fossil fuels — as well as from livestock and other agriculture and decaying waste in landfills. Natural gas is primarily made up of methane. The announcement was made as the U.S. looks to show that it is tackling the issue and encourage other nations to do the same during the global climate summit known as COP28 being held in Dubai. While President Biden will not go this year’s summit, other officials, including Vice President Kamala Harris and Special Climate Envoy John Kerry, are attending. The EPA rule would deliver the methane emissions cuts through policies aimed at limiting leaks, such as requiring monitoring and repairs. The final rule also adds an additional requirement for new wells — to phase in the elimination of the routine burning off of excess gas that’s extracted alongside oil. The practice, known as flaring, occurs when companies opt to burn off gas that comes alongside oil production instead of capturing it for use. The new requirement on flaring goes further than previous proposals and comes after pressure from Democrats to take further action to address flaring. The EPA’s rule also includes a program that will require oil and gas companies to investigate large releases of methane when those releases are identified by certified third parties. In addition to methane, the rule is also expected to reduce pollution, preventing 590,000 tons of toxic air pollutants from being emitted from 2024 to 2038. Methane regulations have been something of a political issue in recent years. The Trump administration rolled back methane regulations. However, President Biden was able to undo that rule with the help of Congress since a law called the Congressional Review Act allows for the reversal of recently passed rules.
At COP28 meeting, oil companies pledge to combat methane. Environmentalists call it a "smokescreen" (AP) — Fifty oil companies representing nearly half of global production have pledged to reach near-zero methane emissions and end routine flaring in their operations by 2030, the president of this year’s United Nationsclimate talks said Saturday, a move that environmental groups called a “smokescreen.” Methane emissions are a significant contributor to global warming, so sharply reducing them could help slow temperature rise. If the companies carry out their pledges, it could trim one-tenth of a degree Celsius (0.18 degrees Fahrenheit) from future warming, a prominent climate scientist calculated and told The Associated Press. That is about how much the Earth is currently warming every five years. The announcement by Sultan al-Jaber, president of the climate summit known as COP28 and head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., comes as he and others have insisted his background would allow him to bring oil companies to the negotiating table. Al-Jaber has maintained that having the industry’s buy-in is crucial to drastically slashing the world’s greenhouse emissions by nearly half in seven years to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with pre-industrial times. Signing on to the pledge were major national oil companies such as Saudi Aramco, Brazil’s Petrobras and Sonangol, from Angola, and multi-nationals like Shell, TotalEnergies and BP. “The world does not work without energy,” said al-Jaber, speaking in a session on the oil industry. “Yet the world will break down if we do not fix energies we use today, mitigate their emissions at a gigaton scale, and rapidly transition to zero carbon alternatives.” As if anticipating critiques, al-Jaber added: “Is it enough? Hear me out, please. No, it’s not enough. I say with full passion and conviction, I know that much more can be done.” For months leading up to COP28, there was speculation of action on methane. Not only do methane leaks, along with flaring, which is burning of excess methane, and venting of the gas, all contribute to climate change, but these problems can largely be solved with current technologies and changes to operations. Indeed, oil and gas companies could have taken such measures years ago but largely have not, instead focusing more on expanding production than focusing on the byproduct of it. In that way, the methane deal represented a potentially significant contribution to combatting climate change that also largely maintained the status quo for the oil and gas industry. Many environmental groups were quick to criticize it. The pledge is a “smokescreen to hide the reality that we need to phase out oil, gas and coal,” said a letter signed by more than 300 civil society groups. Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said “the commitments to cut methane are significant, but they address the symptom, not the source.” Methane has caused about half of the world’s warming since pre-industrial times, al-Jaber said, promoting the deal as significant. However, methane escaping from oil and gas drilling is only about 23% of the world’s methane emissions, with agriculture and waste being bigger culprits, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, the climate scientist who calculated the proposal would trim a tenth of a degree from future warming. Methane can be released at several points along the operation of an oil and gas company, from fracking to when natural gas is produced, transported or stored. Over a shorter period, it’s 86 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. However, methane stays in the air only a couple decades — unlike thousands of years for carbon dioxide — so reducing methane faster is “low-hanging fruit” because it’s easier and changes future warming more, al-Jaber said.
50 Oil Firms Join Charter for Decarbonization at COP28 - A total of 50 oil and gas companies representing more than 40 percent of global oil production have joined the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), which is aimed at achieving global energy transition goals across the oil and gas sectors, at the COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates. National oil companies (NOCs) represent over 60 percent of the signatories to the charter, which is the largest-ever number of NOCs committing to a decarbonization initiative, according to a news release from COP28. The charter signatories have committed to net-zero operations by 2050 at the latest, ending routine flaring by 2030, and near-zero upstream methane emissions, according to the release. The actions being considered by the charter members include investing in renewables, low-carbon fuels and negative emissions technologies; enhancing measurement, monitoring, reporting and independent verification of greenhouse gas emissions and their performance and progress in reducing emissions; increasing alignment with broader industry best practices to accelerate decarbonization of operations; implementing best practices by 2030 to collectively reduce emission intensity; and reducing energy poverty and providing secure and affordable energy to support the development of all economies. COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber said, “The launch of the OGDC is a great first step -- and whilst many national oil companies have adopted net-zero 2050 targets for the first time, I know that they and others, can and need to do more. We need the entire industry to keep 1.5C within reach and set even stronger ambitions for decarbonization”. The OGDC is a key initiative under the Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA), which was launched at the World Climate Action Summit at COP28. The GDA has been informed by the thinking of key stakeholders, including international organizations, governments and policy makers, non-governmental organizations, and CEOs from every industrial sector, according to the release. The NOC signatories of the charter are ADNOC, Bapco Energies, Ecopetrol, EGAS, Equinor, GOGC, INPEX Corporation, KazMunaiGas, Mari Petroleum, Namcor, National Oil Company of Libya, Nilepet, NNPC, OGDC, OMV, ONGC, Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), Pertamina, Petoro, Petrobras, Petroleum Development Oman, Petronas, PTTEP, Saudi Aramco, SNOC, SOCAR, Sonangol, Uzbekneftegaz, ZhenHua Oil, and YPF. The international oil companies that signed the OGDC are Azule Energy, BP, Cepsa, COSMO Energy, Crescent Petroleum, Dolphin Energy Limited, Energean Oil & Gas, Eni, EQT Corporation, Exxonmobil, ITOCHU, LUKOIL, Mitsui & Co, Oando plc, Occidental Petroleum, Puma Energy (Trafigura), Repsol, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Woodside Energy Group. Oil and Gas Organizations to Assist OGDC Members Meanwhile, the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP), Methane Guiding Principles (MGP), Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI) and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) said in a joint statement of intent that they plan to work closely with other organizations and associations and technical service providers to help deliver on the OGDC’s ambitions. The group plans to build a framework to share expertise to help companies reduce methane emissions and flaring in line with OGDC objectives, working closely with organizations such as Ipieca, the UN Environment Programme and the World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership trust fund, according to the statement. According to a separate statement from the OGCI, the group “will build on existing frameworks and use existing expertise and partnerships to quickly stand up a technical support framework available to any company seeking to reduce its methane emissions and flaring”. The immediate focus areas are outreach and engagement, promoting the adoption of guidance, standards and reporting frameworks and enhanced access to technical support. Existing networks and initiatives include those in the MGP-led Advancing Global Methane Reductions (AGMR) country-level engagement and OGCI’s flagship Satellite Monitoring Campaign, the statement said. “IOGP has deep capability through its well-established communities of practice, expertise and technical subject matter experts to help address methane emissions and flaring in line with the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC) ambitions”, IOGP CEO Graham Henley said. “Over the past three years we have been developing materials to support our members monitor, measure and reduce emissions, and supporting them to drive down methane and other emissions. It’s an exciting opportunity to put that expertise to use, and to further build on our efforts to help the industry decarbonize”. “OGCI and its member companies have collectively made good progress reducing methane emissions and flaring in recent years and we have a lot of experience we would like to share with other oil and gas companies in support of the OGDC ambitions”, OGCI Executive Committee Chair Bjørn Otto Sverdrup said. “Indeed, we are already sharing some of that experience through our flagship Satellite Monitoring Program which collects high-resolution data on large methane plumes and uses confidential engagement with local operators to help them identify and address the sources of the emissions”. “The OGDC is bringing a whole new set of companies into the global methane reduction effort. Some are ready to go”, EDP Vice President of Energy Transition Matt Watson said. “Others will need more support to deliver major emission reductions on the rapid timelines required to meet climate goals. EDF is pleased to lend its expertise – particularly in the areas of methane monitoring and emissions reporting – to help companies acquire the knowledge and the tools to meet their commitments in ways that are reliable, durable and transparent”.
More Than 100 Countries at COP28 Call For Fossil Fuel Phaseout - —Under a blanket of petro-smog, more than half the 198 countries in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change called for a fossil fuel phaseout on the second day of COP28, marking a turning point after 27 years of climate negotiations.Since the talks began at COP1 in Berlin in the spring of 1995, member nations have focused on temperature targets, voluntary emissions trading programs and other approaches that never addressed the root cause of the problem—the massive global increase of coal, oil and gas burning. At COP26 in Glasgow two years ago, the final conference documents for the first time included a timid reference to fossil fuels.But Friday, 106 countries—27 member states of the European Union and the 79 members of the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States—finally took the issue head on, calling for a fossil fuel phaseout, an immediate end to all new oil and gas production and clear end dates for fossil fuel production. “The shift towards a climate neutral economy, in line with the 1.5 degree Celsius goal, will require the global phase out of unabated fossil fuels and a peak in their consumption already in this decade,” those countries said in a jointstatement. Going into COP28, oil and gas-producing countries and rich developed nations like the U.S. tried to shift the focus toward language emphasizing a rapid deployment of renewable energy and a reduction in emissions from fossil fuels through technologies like carbon capture, not an phaseout of fossil fuels themselves.But that’s not enough, Ambassador Pa’olelei Luteru of Samoa, current chair of the Association of Small Island States, said as COP28 began here in a petro-state, with the CEO of the United Arab Emirates oil company, Sultan al-Jaber, presiding over the Conference of the Parties.“We call for a phase out of fossil fuels in line with science,” Luteru said. “Setting a target for tripling renewables would send a clear signal to markets but cannot be a substitute for a stronger commitment to fossil fuel phaseout.”The call for a fossil fuel phase out from developing countries and small island states was backed up in a Dec. 1 jointstatement by COP28 President al-Jaber and International Energy Agency director Fatih Birol, who said that, together with ramping up renewables, “fossil fuel demand and supply must phase-down this decade to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach.”It’s not that climate negotiators who have gathered each year since 1995 didn’t understand that burning fossil fuels was the root cause of global warming. But they chose to omit it from the discussions by setting up the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a consensus-based process without power to establish mandatory, enforceable targets for reducing carbon emissions, largely due to pressure from the United States. The UNFCCC is the foundational treaty that has served as the basis for international climate talks since it was signed by 155 countries in 1992. But President George H.W. Bush said then that the United States wouldn’t join the global effort if the treaty included specific targets and timetables for emissions reductions by rich countries. “That’s the reason we’re still faffing around,” said Marc Hudson, a climate activist in the United Kingdom who has studied the history of COP talks. “The only reason we’re still having to have these bloody conferences was that in 1992, targets and timetables for emissions reductions by rich countries got taken out of the text.”
Northern Lights says LNG-powered CO2 carrier duo more than 60 percent complete - China’s Dalian Shipbuilding Offshore (DSOC) continues to progress work on two LNG-powered CO2 carriers it is building for Norway’s Northern Lights, a joint venture consisting of Equinor, Shell, and TotalEnergies. “The production of the first Northern Lights ships is more than 60 percent completed,” Northern Lights said in a brief update via its social media on Thursday. The sister ships have a cargo capacity of 7,500 cbm and will set sail in 2024, it said. Earlier this year, a keel-laying ceremony was held for both of the vessels. This followed a steel-cutting ceremony for both of the LNG-powered ships which took place on November 21, 2022. In October 2021,Dalian Shipbuilding Industry (DSIC) won the contract to build the two dedicated 130 meters long carriers, each with a length of 130 meters. Also, MAN’s ME-GI engines will power the CO2 carriers. Besides LNG power, the vessels will feature a wind-assisted propulsion system and air lubrication in order to reduce carbon intensity. Northern Lights also recently ordered the third LNG-powered liquefied CO2 carrier. A spokesperson for Northern Lights told LNG Prime at the time that the “first two ship contracts were awarded to Dalian Shipbuilding Industry (DSIC) but they are built by DSOC as a contractor.” The spokesperson said that the company awarded the contract for the third ship directly to DSOC. According to Northern Lights, the third LNG-powered CO2 carrier will cater to existing and new customers and will also share the same characteristics as its sister ships with a cargo capacity of 7,500 cbm.
Cop: Japan to ban building of new unabated coal plants - Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida has told the UN Cop 28 climate conference that Japan will stop building additional unabated coal-fired power plants. "Japan will take the path to net zero emissions by ending the construction of new domestic unabated coal power plants, while ensuring stable energy [supplies]," Kishida said on 1 December. The pledge is in line with the G7 target of fully or predominately decarbonising the power sector by 2035 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050, announced in April. Japan already has two coal-fired units under construction. The country's largest power operator, Jera, plans to start commercial operations of its 650MW Yokosuka No 2 coal-fired unit in Kanagawa prefecture in February next year. Japanese power producer and wholesaler J-Power aims to build a new 500MW No 2 unit for its Matsushima coal-fired plant in Nagasaki prefecture by the financial year starting in April 2028 to replace two old coal-fired unitswith a combined capacity of 1GW. The upcoming Matsushima unit is set to have an integrated coal gasification combined-cycle component. The vow is unlikely to cancel ongoing coal-fired plant projects given that the Yokosuka No 2 unit is near completion, while an environmental impact assessment on the new Matsushima unit began in September 2021. In addition, specifying unabated coal-fired plants in the pledge suggests the Japanese government may continue to allow new coal-fired plants with emissions reduction technology, such as ammonia co-firing. Japan has operational coal-fired units with a combined generation capacity of about 52GW across the country as of early December, according to Japan Electric Power Exchange.
John Kerry: Coal power plants shouldn't be "permitted anywhere in the world" - U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said at COP28 Sunday that coal-fired power plants should no longer be permitted. "The reality is the climate crisis and the health crisis are one and the same," Kerry said at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, citing a study that found coal "doubles the number of deaths" compared to other sources of air-carried pollution. "Now, we don't need that necessarily to tell us we ought to be transitioning out of coal," he added. "There shouldn't be any more coal fired power plants permitted anywhere in the world. That's how you can do something for health. And the reality is that we're not doing it." Kerry has been outspoken in his concerns, given coal is a particularly carbon-intensive fuel and new plants are unlikely to be shut down for many years, Axios' Andrew Freedman notes. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest emitters and Kerry raised during meetings with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, ahead of COP28 his concerns about Beijing being the largest coal consumer, approving new coal power plants at a rapid rate.
Asian power generation gets cleaner, even as coal emissions rise (Reuters) - Asia boosted clean electricity output and slashed its share of fossil fuels faster than North America and Europe from 2015, data shows, underscoring resistance by Asian nations to a western push to choke private financing for coal-fired power. There is wide agreement that increasing clean power, such as wind and solar, is central to curbing carbon emissions to fight climate change. On Saturday at the U.N. climate summit, 118 governments, led by the U.S. and the European Union, pledged to triple the world's renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, China and India did not back the COP28 pledge as it was twinned with curbing use of fossil fuels, which they see as essential to reliably meeting rapidly rising power demand. Bolstering their view, even with coal, higher financing costs and weaker access to funds, Asia outpaced Europe and North America in fighting climate change by key measures since the Paris climate agreement of 2015, a Reuters analysis of data found. Asia increased its generation of clean energy, which includes nuclear and hydro, at a far rapid pace compared to Europe and North America Asia clean energy outpaces the West Asia boosted clean power, including hydro and nuclear, as a share of overall power output by about 8 percentage points to 32% between 2015 and 2022, a review of data from energy think tank Ember showed. By comparison, clean energy's share in the power mix in Europe rose over 4 percentage points to 55%, while in North America it climbed by more than 6 percentage points to 46%. "There cannot be any pressure on India to cut down emissions," India's power and renewable energy minister R.K. Singh said on Nov. 30. Asia slashed the share of fossil fuels in power generation by 8 percentage points to 68% in 2022 from 2015, abating more gas and coal use than Europe and North America. Over the same period, Europe's dependence on fossil fuels fell 4 percentage points while North America's narrowed by 6 percentage points.
Hundreds in AZ, NM died from coal-fired power plant dust, study says -- An estimated 460,000 people died of causes attributed to fine particulates from coal power generating stations nationwide, according to a new study, which examined so-called "excess deaths" between 1999 and 2020.Three of the plants in the study operated in northern Arizona or in New Mexico along the edges of the Navajo Nation.Exposure to the fine coal dust, known as PM2.5 based on the size of the particles, led to a mortality risk two times greater than exposure to fine particulates from other sources, the study found. “Air pollution exposure is associated with adverse health effects and increased risk of death,” according to the study "Mortality risk from United States coal electricity generation." “Coal electricity-generating units, or power plants, are a major contributor to poor air quality.”Researchers compared mortality risks associated with fine particulate exposure from coal and from all other sources, then analyzed Medicare death records covering 650 million person-years in the U.S. Annual excess deaths were highest between 1999 and 2007, averaging more than 43,000 deaths per year for a total of 390,000. About 480 U.S. coal-powered plants operated from 1999 to 2020, including Four Corners Generating Station and San Juan Generating Station in New Mexico, and the now demolished Navajo Generating Station in the Lechee community of the Navajo Nation outside Page. That plant closed in 2019.
World Report Shows Nuclear Energy Production Fell By 4% Last Year - Nuclear energy’s share in global electricity production fell by 4% in 2022, year-on-year, reaching its lowest since the 1980s, according to the annual World Nuclear Industry report released on Wednesday. In 2022, nuclear energy was responsible for generating 2,546 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity globally, representing 9.2% of total generation, with the U.S. generating the largest share, followed by China. At a time when climate change is fostering a sort of renaissance for nuclear power, aging nuclear power plants are nearing shut-down and new projects face delays and cost hurdles. For the first half of 2023, there were 407 reactors in operation across 32 countries, which represents a decline of four operating reactors from the previous year and a decline of 31 operating reactors from a decade ago, with progress on new reactors stymied by cost fundamentals and timeframes. While the report notes that nuclear energy is increasingly being viewed as a route to net-zero carbon emissions, WNISR views this as a non-starter in terms of climate change solutions, emphasizing that it costs nearly four times more to build out nuclear reactors compared to wind and solar power solutions, calculating total lifetime cost and output. In its annual report, the WNISR reached some highly critical conclusions about nuclear energy, noting that while changes in perception have been enormous, “in its broader characteristics, the global nuclear power industry today remains much as it was then--opaque when it comes to costs and timetables, prone to wildly inflated growth forecasts, and stubbornly fighting the rapid growth in renewables, although the gaps between the two in terms of growth, cost and performance widen by the year.”Further, the WNISR said nuclear energy remains “an expensive and dangerous proposition financially, environmentally and now militarily, with insufficient liability protection and prospects of future Black Swan events that destroy whole regions, uproot populations, increase cancer occurrence, and threaten even distant ecosystems.”
Multiple businesses forced to close for day after gas leak in Greene County – WHIO TV 7 and WHIO Radio— Crews are working to fix a gas line that got hit and caused a leak Wednesday.The gas leak closed North Fairfield Road between Lantz Road and Dayton-Xenia Road for hours Wednesday afternoon. Beavercreek Township fire officials said a company doing utility work in the area underground hit a gas line. They got the call around 11:30 a.m.The leak caused four to six businesses in the area to close down for the rest of the day just to make sure customers were safe.No one was hurt. “At no point were kids or anybody in danger. We’ve got some calls from parents concerned about the kids in the preschool,” Lt. Nathan Ardnt with Beavercreek Township Fire Department said. “We are monitoring very closely with CenterPoint, making sure that at no time were gas levels any danger to the kids in the area, especially with the school and the preschool in close proximity.”There has been no word yet on when repairs will be done. Beavercreek Twp. Fire Department Lt. Nathan Arndt said they were called out around 11:30 a.m. on reports of a gas line that had been hit in the middle of the road.
Hours-long gas leak repaired in Darke County, power restored to homes - WHIO-— People in Darke County had to leave their homes for hours after a natural gas leak. “You need to let the emergency crews do their job and get it taken care of,” James Hinshaw of Greenville said. Hinshaw sheltered in place a half of block away from the scene on North Main and Spring Streets.Down the block from him, crews were busy trying to get things under control. Greenville’s Fire Chief Russ Thompson said they got calls reporting the gas leak around 11 a.m.“We got down here, we did have an active gas leak, a pretty substantial one,” he said.He said a company doing fiber optic work in the area hit a CenterPoint Energy gas line. “A natural gas line was accidentally struck by a third party unrelated to CenterPoint Energy or the company’s operations. Our crews responded by securing the area and safely turning off the natural gas to 12 nearby properties,” a spokesperson for CenterPoint Energy said in part.Hinshaw found out about this through word of mouth and social media. “Neighbors were running door to door, ‘hey did you hear about this?’ ... but communication from our emergency personnel could have been better,” he said.Thompson said homes downwind from the intersection where the leak happened were evacuated.Power has been restored to homes in the area.
Utica Drilling in Columbiana County, OH, Came Alive in November | Marcellus Drilling News - Columbiana County, OH, located in the northern portion of the Utica Shale play in the Buckeye State, has recently come roaring back to life. In 2022, there were 41 permits issued to drill in the Utica in Columbiana County. So far, in 2023, there have been 35 permits issued to drill in Columbiana County. But here’s the thing: 16 of this year’s 35 permits (half!) were issued in November! It’s like Columbiana had been asleep for most of this year, and then it suddenly came alive.
Columbiana County Oil Boom Shows No Signs of Slowing – Horizontal wells operating in Columbiana County during the third quarter have shattered oil production records in this tier of the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation, according to data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. During the third quarter, the 138 producing wells in the county yielded a total of 352,354 barrels of oil during the period ended Sept. 30, according to ODNR. The previous record was 233,390 barrels produced during the first quarter of this year, data show. During the second quarter, Columbiana County’s wells yielded 142,669 barrels over a 90-day period. Much of the oil produced during the third quarter is from four wells recently drilled at the Sanor Farms well pad in Knox Township. EAP Ohio, a subsidiary of Houston-based Encino Energy Partners, placed the wells into commission during the third quarter, and together these four wells accounted for 258,739 barrels of oil. Three of these wells – the Sanor 6H, 8H and 10H – are ranked sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively, among the top 10 oil producers in the state, according to ODNR. All of the 10-best wells in Ohio are owned and operated by EAP. Oil production also proved strong from four EAP wells in Hanover Township at the Mountz well pad, records show. These four wells combined for another 89,913 barrels during the quarter, according to ODNR. According to ODNR records, the highest-producing oil well in the state during the third quarter was EAP’s Addy 10H well in Harrison County, which yielded 79,576 barrels. “Encino bet on Ohio in 2018, and we’re excited to see the results, particularly with wells in Columbiana County ranking in the top 10 for oil production statewide,” Encino spokeswoman Jackie Stewart said. “For the Mahoning Valley, this is particularly encouraging news, as we source our production casing for our wells in Youngstown and rely on hundreds of local supply chain businesses each and every day to make it happen.” EAP, which operates its regional office in Carrollton, remains optimistic about the prospects in the Utica/Point Pleasant, Stewart said. “Columbiana County has been a great partner and very welcoming over the past few years, and we continue to be optimistic about the running room to keep growing,” Stewart said. “There’s a lot of great reasons to keep investing and betting on Ohio, and that’s exactly what we intend to do.” During a recent appearance at the Hart Energy’s DUG Appalachia conference in Pittsburgh, Tim Parker, Encino’s chief technology officer, noted that promising well results in the Utica helped draw the company to Ohio. “We were convinced that the [Ohio Utica] would become exactly what it is now,” he said. Yet Columbiana County’s section of the Utica/Point Pleasant is not traditionally known for its oil production. Wells in the past have generally yielded a negligible amount of oil, as the region became more associated with a dry and wet gas window. However, oil production shot upwards during the first quarter, as the four Mountz wells in Hanover Township pumped out 228,058 barrels during the period, records show. Those wells produced 138,164 barrels during the second quarter, according to ODNR data. During the third quarter, total oil output across the state stood at 6.527 barrels, down from 6.921 barrels during the second quarter, data show. However, oil production in Ohio’s Utica during the third quarter is more than 1.6 million barrels greater than the same period a year ago, when Ohio wells generated 4.9 million barrels. While oil production increased in Columbiana County compared with the previous two quarters, natural gas output remained flat, ODNR records show. Horizontal wells in the county accounted for 20.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas production, even with the previous quarter’s production. The single largest gas producing well in Columbiana County was EAP’s Maskaluk well pad in Washington Township, which yielded 777.749 billion cubic feet over a 90-day period. EAP reported a total of 9.98 billion cubic feet of natural gas from its Columbiana County wells during the third quarter. Hilcorp Energy Co., another active producer in Columbiana County’s Utica, reported its wells delivered 10.695 billion cubic feet of gas during the period. The largest producer in Ohio was SWN Production’s well in Monroe County, which produced 4.283 billion cubic feet of gas during a 90-day period. In all, natural gas production across Ohio during the third quarter increased 2.2% to 547 billion cubic feet, compared with 535.5 cubic feet produced during the previous quarter, according to ODNR.
Here’s why those who run the MWCD are hypocrites - Make no mistake, money can influence some people to do just about anything. On Nov. 15, Ryan Richardson, Stephen Buehrer, Matthew Warnock, Michael Wise, and Jim McGregor –members of the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission — paved the way for fracking Ohio’s state parks. During that meeting, the commission approved fracking leases for Salt Fork State Park, Zepernick Wildlife Area and Valley Run Wildlife Area, even though more than 100 Ohioans present at the meeting expressed their outrage.No doubt, the OGLMC was influenced by the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District’s March 1 presentation which focused on how much money could be made by fracking lands overlying the Utica and Marcellus shale. Like the OGLMC, the MWCD’s main concern is making as much money as quickly as possible from fracking. In fact, “no one has benefited financially as much as the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District; Ohio’s No. 1 beneficiary of drilling.” Recently, the MWCD had Cleveland State University’s Energy and Policy Center conduct a non-peer reviewed study (see the 26-page report,“Economic Impact of the Muskingum Conservancy District on the Regional Economy, 2014- 2022.”) While this report tries to convince us that the MWCD has brought economic prosperity to the region, evidence shows a decline in population and local incomes. The 2020 census showed the“largest population drop among counties in Ohio occurred in Harrison County, which dropped 8.7 percent to 14,483.”A Feb. 12, 2021, study published by the Ohio River Valley Institute, a nonprofit research center, found that “jobs, personal income and population all declined between 2008 and 2019 in the 22 Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia counties that produce 90 percent of Appalachia’s natural gas.”This included the MWCD counties of Belmont, Carroll, Guernsey, Harrison and Noble, which saw a net job loss of more than 8 percent and a population loss of more than 5 percent.Additionally, the MWCD report was only concerned with economic impacts and did not include the health and environmental impacts from this development. The development being selling water for fracking, selling leases for fracking, and receiving royalties from fracking.Peer-reviewed studies as well as the citizens living in the 18-county region of the MWCD can provide data as to the impacts associated with fracking. The recently released 637-page report, “Compendium of Scientific, Medical, and Media Findings Demonstrating Risks and Harms of Fracking and Associated Gas and Oil Infrastructure, Ninth Edition, Oct. 19,” says, “Our examination uncovered no evidence that fracking can be practiced in a manner that does not threaten human health directly or without imperiling climate stability upon which human health depends.”Accident reports obtained from a Freedom of Information Act request to the ODNR illustrate that this industry is anything but safe. Just since 2018, the ODNR data has documented more than 800 accidents considered serious enough to require inspectors, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and hazmat intervention to remediate the sites. In addition, Ohio has one of the most lenient set-backs for a well pad: 150 feet from a property boundary.More than 100 studies have documented hazardous and carcinogenic chemical compounds in the air around fracking sites. “Evidence shows that compressor stations along natural gas pipelines are sources of air pollutant exposures that contribute to adverse human health outcomes.” Oil and gas wells are the single largest source of human-caused methane gas emissions. Additionally, fracking produces millions of gallons of waste fluids containing heavy metals, salts, and radionuclides, which are injected into Class II injection wells.MWCD might “shield the well pads from public view” but those of us who live on or near MWCD property experience the negative impacts of fracking every day. We are losing forest acreage to well pads, infrastructure, roads and pipelines. We hear noise pollution and see light pollution from flaring. Our roads are traveled by hundreds of brine, sand and chemical tankers. We are witnessing MWCD’s greed turn our rural landscape into an industrial zone while our property values diminish.The MWCD is quick to brag about its $40 million dollar deal with Encino Energy or their $6.5 million marina at Tappan Lake, but the environmental damage that will occur to the local environment as the MWCD makes money from fracking is indefensible. They brag about all the economic benefits (see “Analysis shows MWCD plan has $1B impact on area’s economy,” Herald-Star, Nov. 25) they bring to the area, but a drive through the local communities shows no significant economic boom. Our family used to visit Tappan Park 20 years ago, but what the MWCD calls improvements looks more like an attempt to create a high-end camping resort. The new camping areas, depicted on Page 13 of the report, are now devoid of trees. Today there are only side-by-side concrete pads that will accommodate expensive RVs complete with satellite dishes and air conditioning. This is not camping, it is glamping. This is not the atmosphere that nature-lovers seek. Much of the money gained from fracking will be spent on MWCD infrastructure improvements inside the parks. Most locals will never use these facilities, but they will experience the externalities resulting from fracking.The definition of a conservancy is “A body concerned with the preservation of nature, specific species, or natural resources.” MWCD is not a conservancy. Real stewards of the environment do not embrace a process that contributes to climate change. They do not look the other way as fracking infrastructure destroys forested ecosystems. They do not ignore the volatile organic air emissions from fracking well pads, compressor stations and pipelines or the millions of gallons of surface water withdrawn for fracking fluids. Real stewards of the environment protect it, nurture it, and value the undisturbed beauty above and beyond any monetary value.
Ohio Utica Shale Production 3Q23 – Top Wells, Drillers & Counties | Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) released production numbers for the third quarter of 2023 late last week, and nobody noticed…except MDN (thanks to a tip from a good friend). ODNR no longer issues a press release to summarize the results as they once did. We’ve got the full spreadsheet with oil and gas production details for all 3,281 active shale wells in the Buckeye State. We’ve sliced and diced the numbers and have our usual Top 25 lists for natural gas and oil wells. We’ve included a couple of charts summarizing the data, showing the total production by driller (gas and oil) and the total production for the quarter by county. You’re gonna love it! ASCENT RESOURCES | ENCINO ENERGY | ENERGY COMPANIES | EOG RESOURCES | GULFPORT ENERGY | INDUSTRYWIDE ISSUES | OHIO | RESEARCH | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | STATEWIDE OH | UTICA RESOURCE OPERATING
"Holy Trinity of Hydrocarbons:” Ohio Oil Production on the Rise - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources recently published 2023 third quarter data showing oil production in the Buckeye State shattering records. Between July 1 and September 30, 2023, Ohio producers pumped out 6,527,247 barrels of oil – dramatically outpacing third quarter 2022 production by 32 percent and adding more than 1.6 million new barrels to the supply chain. In Columbiana County, one of the state’s fastest growing production areas, oil production levels skyrocketed from its previous record. Last quarter, the county’s 138 wells produced 352,354 barrels of oil. Compared to its previous feat of 233,390 barrels produced in the first quarter of this year, the county has upped production by a whopping 51 percent.Speaking to the Youngstown Business Journal, Jackie Stewart of Encino Energy applauded the victory and pointed out the industry’s continued additive benefits to the local economy: “For the Mahoning Valley, this is particularly encouraging news, as we source our production casing for our wells in Youngstown and rely on hundreds of local supply chain businesses each and every day to make it happen.” Similarly, in Guernsey County, oil production dramatically increased to 2,239,736 barrels over the 87-day period, compared to 1,576,209 during the same time last year. Harrison County also showed oil production levels increased slightly from 1,214,475 in 2022 to 1,219,869 barrels this quarter.Ohio’s skyrocketing oil production levels represents an exciting renewed trend and understanding for Ohio and the Utica Shale: not only does the state offer plentiful natural gas and natural gas liquids, but it is ripe for oil extraction and value. Rob Brundrett, the president of the Ohio Oil & Gas Association, emphasized Ohio’s “holy trinity of hydrocarbons” when speaking at the Hart Energy DUG Appalachia conference:“We’ve got oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and crude oil. So we have them all right here in the Utica and the state of Ohio.”This is a fact of which operators are taking notice. Earlier this year, EOG Resources announced its new investment in Ohio’s hydrocarbons stating that the “Ohio Utica Combo play improves quality of premium inventory.” Ezra Yacob, chairman and CEO of EOG Resources said:“When you take the blinders off and you come with a different perspective from different basins, it’s amazing the things that you can uncover…”To supplement Ohio’s burgeoning oil play, natural gas production levels remained steady at over 547,039,311 thousand cubic feet (Mcf). Guernsey County also continued increasing natural gas production: in the third quarter of 2023, it produced 18,186,400 Mcf, up from 16,066,977 Mcf in 2022, while Harrison County produced 71,306,952 Mcf of natural gas.OOGA’s Brundrett highlighted how Ohio producers have found a way to “crack that code” of the Utica and predicted more investment coming to the state:“I think we’ve all learned a ton over the last decade on how best to drill and how best to finish these wells to get the … maximum for your investment…We’ve found a way to kind of crack that code and really maybe extract the maximum benefits that we can from the ground in Ohio, which is really, really exciting. And we’re probably going to see, obviously, a lot more investment in Ohio based on these results.” Since the beginning of the Shale Revolution, investment from oil and natural gas has brought in over $100 billion to the state – critical money that helps boost economic development in the state. Brundrett emphasized:“I can’t again overstate the importance of that kind of infrastructure and that kind of investment in really one of the poorest regions in our state.”Bottom line: Traditionally thought of as a natural gas state, Ohio is making big moves and becoming a sought-after oil play. Record production levels show that the Utica has much to offer: oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids – all of which are critical to modern life and society while helping to boost Ohio’s economic outlook.
25 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 27 – Dec 3 | Marcellus Drilling News -- New shale permits issued for Nov 27 – Dec 3 in the Marcellus/Utica were much improved over the previous few weeks. There were 25 new permits issued last week versus 14 issued two weeks ago and just one new permit three weeks ago. So the trend is our friend! Last week’s permit tally included 15 new permits in Pennsylvania, 8 new permits in Ohio, and 2 new permits in West Virginia. Three companies tied for top place with 4 permits each: Seneca Resources in PA, Ascent Resources and Encino Energy in OH. ALLEGHENY COUNTY | ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | DODDRIDGE COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREYLOCK ENERGY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HG ENERGY | INFLECTION ENERGY | LYCOMING COUNTY | MCKEAN COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | POTTER COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY
Marcellus Shale Coalition Analyzes PA DEP Enviro Justice Policy - On August 17, the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) posted an Interim Final Environmental Justice Policy to guide DEP’s permit application reviews and outreach efforts in environmental justice areas throughout the Commonwealth (see PA DEP Issues Interim “Final” Shale-Drilling-is-Racist Regulation). New Environmental Justice (or EJ) policies are a euphemism for regulations that prohibit drilling and pipelines built in neighborhoods of color or economic hardship zones because, says the left, those people can’t fight them. It is a uniquely dystopian and prejudiced view of the world. We call it “all shale drilling is racist” regulations. Completely repugnant. But the Shapiro DEP forged ahead with implementing these new policies and a new website tool aimed at helping to identify EJ regions.
From Fracked Gas in Pennsylvania to Toxic Waste in Texas, Tracking Vinyl Chloride Production in the U.S. --- In February, officials released more than a million pounds of vinyl chloride into the environment in a controlled vent and burn, after five cars carrying 115,580 gallons of the hazardous chemical derailed. Two thousand residents were evacuated, and some have since experienced health issues they blame on the vinyl chloride burn. East Palestine and Cromby are not unique: they’re just two examples in a long parade of vinyl chloride rail accidents that have struck communities across the United States without warning for decades, in Arkansas, Michigan,Louisiana, Illinois, Texas, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Paulsboro, New Jersey, on a track that the East Palestine train would have followed had it continued across Pennsylvania from Ohio, and which involved one of the same companies, OxyVinyls. The story of the vinyl chloride on the East Palestine train–where it came from, how it was made, where it was going, and what kinds of products it would have eventually become–is a window into America’s vast plastics-making infrastructure, a system that stretches from gas fields in Appalachia to railyards in the Midwest to Gulf Coast petrochemical hubs to factories in the densely populated Northeast, encompassing thousands of miles of rail lines and pipelines as well as gas wells, storage facilities and plants. Because the ethane needed to make vinyl chloride is a byproduct of natural gas, it’s also an illustration of the side effects of the 21st-century fracking boom. Fueled by abundant shale gas, the sprawling networks that made both the East Palestine disaster and the incident in Cromby possible are growing. “Plastic production is increasing not because consumers want more plastic,” said Judith Enck, the president of Beyond Plastics, an advocacy group working to end plastic pollution. “It’s because there’s a glut of fracked gas.” When the gas industry and its champions talk about fracking, especially in politically contentious places like Pennsylvania, they tend to bring up its necessity as a source for essential heating and fuel. “Pennsylvania-produced natural gas essential to national security,” read the headline on an American Petroleum Institute press release in 2022. But in a world attempting to decarbonize its energy supply, plastics manufacturing has become increasingly important to companies eager to continue to profit from natural gas extraction. “It’s all very much connected to natural gas. It’s one of the reasons why PVC is so cheap to manufacture in the United States, because of the fracking explosion that we’ve seen over the last 20 or so years in places like Pennsylvania,” said Mike Schade, the director of the Mind the Store program at Toxic-Free Future, a nonprofit focused on combating chemical pollution. A 2021 Beyond Plastics report on plastics and climate change reported that the plastics industry “consumes more than 1.5 billion tons of fracked gases annually.” “We’ve seen the industry essentially have to invent new uses for gas, and that’s happening now,” said Eric de Place, an expert consultant on energy policy and fossil fuels. Whether it’s fertilizer, “blue” hydrogen or plastic, de Place said, “they’re just scrambling after whatever those new markets might be in order to find some justification to keep drilling and making money.” Overall, the total amount of oil and gas used for the production of plastics is around 15-20 percent, depending on what and how you count, said Sean O’Leary, senior researcher in energy and petrochemicals at the Ohio River Valley Institute, noting that more natural gas goes into power generation for plastics manufacturing than is used as feedstock. “Still, because demand for power from natural gas and oil is stagnating globally while demand for plastics has continued to rise, natural gas producers see plastics as an important market for the future,” he said.
IFO: PA NatGas Production, Wells Spud Both Decreased in 3Q | Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for July through September 2023 (full copy below). There were 102 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 3Q23, a huge decrease of 56 wells (-35%) compared to 3Q22. However, 3Q’s spud number was up nicely from the 89 drilled in 2Q23. Natural gas production volume was 1,870 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 3Q23, down 10 Bcf (-0.5%) from 1,880 Bcf produced in 3Q22.
Letter to the editor: Stop fracking in Murrysville parks | TribLIVE.com - Our family, especially our toddlers, love the parks in Murrysville. We’ve spent countless hours on the playgrounds at Murrysville Community Park and hiking through Duff Park. Which is why it was alarming to hear of our council’s plan to lease oil/gas rights there. Even though fracking happens below the surface, there are documented impacts. Look at Deer Lakes Park, which had a similar fracking arrangement. The lakes were contaminated with chemicals associated with fracking, leading to the ban of future fracking at all Allegheny County parks. It is especially concerning that the two well pads (Titan and Poseidon) that will be used already have 72 on-site violations. Allowing them to drill into our parks will only lead to more violations and possible contamination. A Pitt study has shown there are health risks, especially to children, when exposed to nearby fracking activity. Our kids and citizens should trust that they can enjoy our parks and not be exposed to dangerous chemicals. There are other ways to raise money that don’t put our natural resources or our children’s health at risk. The final vote happens when the council meets at 7 p.m. Dec. 6. Stop fracking in our parks by attending and voicing your concerns. You can also sign https://rb.gy/i6180v asking council to vote to deny any leases for fracking on or under Murrysville parks. - Meredith Juchniewicz
Letter to the editor: Fracking doesn't belong in parks | TribLIVE.com --Even young children can understand the conservation principle known as leave no trace. When you visit nature, whether it’s the Appalachian Trail or your local park, you change nothing about it, leave nothing behind and remove only trash. This helps preserve natural spaces so that everyone can enjoy them long into the future. Murrysville Council either has not grasped this simple concept, or thinks there’s some special exception when it comes to Murrysville parks. They’re moving forward with their plans to lease Duff Park and Murrysville Community Park for fracking. Multiple citizens have warned them about how this will affect the parks, and in particular the water, as fracking has already done in Deer Lakes Park in Allegheny County. These concerns are backed by research, but so far the council has not listened.We wouldn’t tolerate logging or mining in any park. Why should we treat fracking any differently? Can we really put a price on the natural integrity and beauty of the parks? The people of Murrysville should make it clear to the council that our parks are not for sale. --Jason Plank
Fracking and cancer | LTE - Williamsport Sun-Gazette In response to the editorial written by representatives of the Heartland Institute that appeared in the Sun-Gazette on Oct. 27 claiming no connection between the oil and gas industry and cancer, I offer the following: 28,021 tons of benzene are emitted per year by the industry. Reputable organizations, including the EPA, classify benzene as a known human carcinogen. Exposure to benzene is linked to higher risks of cancer, particularly several forms of leukemia, as well as multiple myeloma and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. A report from the Clean Air Task Force indicates that almost 25% of Pennsylvanians live within the half-mile threat radius around industry operations. The Clean Air Task Force’s Threat Map shows that 4,237 people in Lycoming County live within half a mile of active wells, compressors and processors. The map indicates those within the threat radius have “cause for concern” over potential health impacts. The harms associated with fracking – including asthma, other respiratory diseases, heart problems, mental health problems, and cancer – have been well documented. In what many call a growing crisis, infants, children, pregnant women, and the elderly are proving especially vulnerable to the industry’s harms. And yet, the Shapiro administration and legislators who could make a difference merely double down on the false insistence that the industry is safe. So does fracking harm public health? Download the Compendium of Scientific, Medical, and Media Findings Demonstrating Risks and Harms of Fracking [www.psr.org], a compilation of 2,303 peer-reviewed studies, over 90% of which show harm. The Compendium shows “no evidence that fracking can be practiced in a manner that does not threaten human health directly or without imperiling climate stability upon which human health depends.” But don’t take my word for it. Read the evidence, and decide for yourself. - Karen Elias, Lock Haven
How the Threat of Fracking Is Returning to New York -- This fall, a few thousand families in the Southern Tier region of New York began receiving peculiar letters in the mail. A company called Southern Tier Solutions (STS) was inviting them to lease their land for a new project. It beckoned residents to join the company’s efforts to become a “sustainable energy pioneer and a major contributor to the fight against climate change.”That may sound enticing to any environmentally inclined reader, except for one major detail — STS is planning to frackfor gas. Plus, it’s using the climate scam carbon capture and storage to greenwash its proposal and secure hefty taxpayer subsidies. In 2014, New York passed its landmark ban on fracking. Since its inception, New York’s ban has protected residents from the dire health effects of fracking. In other states, the fracking boom has contaminated water supplies and spewed noxious air pollution. It has driven illnesses, including cancer, and worsened our climate crisis.So how does STS claim to work around New York’s ban? By using carbon dioxide instead of water to extract the gas. Essentially, CO2 fracking. And that’s where carbon capture and storage comes in.STS has several plans for getting its hands on carbon dioxide. First, it wants to ship it north from carbon capture plants on the Gulf Coast. Later, it plans to build several gas power plants, which will emit CO2 that STS can capture and inject underground to extract more gas. Eventually, the company envisions building and running direct air capture plants, to suck CO2 directly from the sky. STS claims that its use of captured carbon makes its bizarre scheme climate-friendly. By its logic, the emissions from fracking, transporting, and burning gas cancel out once it shoves some CO2 underground, where it may or may not remain. But what if instead of trying to clean up their messes, corporations just didn’t make a mess in the first place? We know we will save time, resources, money, and the climate by ending fossil fuels and transitioning fully to renewables and battery storage.Not only is STS’s logic faulty; so is its expensive technology. As we have shown in our research, carbon capture has proven to fail, again and again. And because it’s so resource and energy-intensive, U.S. carbon capture projects have actually put moreCO2 into the atmosphere than they’ve removed. To make matters worse, most captured carbon is used just as STS has proposed — to drill for more oil and gas. Ultimately, carbon capture maintains and reinforces the status quo of drilling and burning fossil fuels, as well as their massive pollution and climate impacts.At the same time, renewables keep getting cheaper and batteries keep getting better. Which begs the question — why is STS even pursuing carbon capture in the first place?
Is proposal to store CO2 in Southern Tier gas wells New York’s clean energy future, or just another gas bubble? - The promoter of a multi-billion-dollar plan to drill thousands of gas wells in the Southern Tier to store CO2 and extract methane insists his business partners and financial backers must remain anonymous.“I can’t go into that with you. That is a third rail at the moment,” Bryce Phillips told WaterFront. Phillips, a 56-year-old Texan, sounded more open about his professional team in a pre-taped radio interview aired Tuesday on Albany-based WCNY’s Capitol Pressroom program. When asked to describe his backers, he told the radio audience, that his company was owned by CO2 To Clean Energy Solutions “out of Wyoming.” But Phillips later explained to WaterFront that his corporate parent, a limited liability company with that exact name, does not have a website and is not currently active in Wyoming “in any visible way.” Phillips is president of Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions LLC, which does have a website. Southern Tier Solutions has made a splash in the region by mailing information packages to 6,500 landowners in Broome, Tioga and Chemung counties inviting them to lease their property for intense energy development.Phillips said today that he has scheduled a catered open house on Saturday, Dec. 16, from noon to 4 p.m. at the Binghamton Club at 83 Front St. in Binghamton.In response to questions from their constituents about the unsolicited offers, state Sen. Lea Webb (D-Binghamton) and Assemblymember Donna Lupardo (D-Endwell) held a press conference and wrote the state Department of Environmental Conservation with questions of their own.“We’re talking about carbon capture facilities, we’re talking about thousands of new gas wells, we’re talking about pipeline infrastructure, and with everything this community has been though with the Marcellus and Utica shale, we obviously have some questions,” Lupardo said.Phillips said he’s met with staffers for Webb and Lupardo but not with those or any other elected state officials. Neither has he made a concerted effort to win over state and federal regulators.Instead his energies have been focused on convincing landowners to sign leases that allow his company to drill wells on their land for a flat $10 and the prospect of future payouts from CO2 storage and methane extraction.Those payments would flow, he says, once the company achieves its vision of drilling thousands of wells linked by a series of CO2 and methane pipelines. The pipelines would connect to ten new 300-megawatt gas-fired power plants and several direct air capture (DAC) facilities, which would minimize or eliminate the plants’ greenhouse gas emissions. Phillips’ anonymous team figures the entire project would cost well over $10 billion and take decades to develop. He argues that it would help the state meet the goals of its 2019 climate law by providing “the electrical backbone for the state of New York” without spiking greenhouse gas emissions. Southern Tier Solutions’ pitch to New York landowners comes as the Biden Administration is pouring billions into carbon storage initiatives. “Removing legacy carbon pollution from the air through direct air capture and safely storing it is an essential weapon against the climate crisis,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said last year in announcing a $3.4 billion program to support new DAC hubs. Meanwhile, Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon is touting carbon storage as a way to address climate change without harming his state’s fossil fuel industry. Wyoming generates 71 percent of its power by burning coal, a major source of CO2 emissions. Phillips concedes that his New York project is extraordinarily ambitious, a moonshot that might flop. “There is no way unless you have widespread community support and support from local and state governments, and also the federal government, that this will ever work,” Phillips told WCNY listeners. “We’re really looking at (leasing) a minimum of about 100,000 acres. We’d like to see that in the works by March or April.” “We need blocks of between 30,000 and 50,000 acres,” he added. “Ultimately, we’d like to see a million (acres).” If those initial leasing goals are met, the company would begin drilling test wells to inject ‘supercritical’ CO2 (a quasi-liquid) into the Marcellus and Utica shale formations. In theory, the shale will absorb (and store) the CO2, forcing out marketable methane.
Mountain Valley Pipeline Owner Explores Options Including Sale - Bloomberg
- Pipeline operator has market capitalization of over $4 billion
- Equitrans was spun out of natural gas firm EQT Corp. in 2018
December 1, 2023 at 10:31 AM EST Updated on December 1, 2023 at 12:47 PM EST Save Equitrans Midstream Corp. is in the early stages of exploring a potential sale, people familiar with the matter said, potentially adding to a flurry of pipeline deals in North America. The operator of natural gas pipelines across the country, including the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline project, is working with an adviser as it weighs a range of strategic options, according to the people. Equitrans would likely attract interest from industry peers should it opt to launch a sales process in early 2024, the people said.
Equitrans in early stages of discussing asset sale - Oil and gas pipeline firm Equitrans Midstream Corp. is in the early stages of considering a sale, Bloomberg News and Reuters reports. The operator of natural gas pipelines across the USA, including the Mountain Valley Pipeline project, is working with an adviser as it weighs a range of strategic options, according to reports. Equitrans would likely attract interest from industry peers should it opt to launch a sales process in early 2024. Equitrans owns a 48.1% ownership interest in the Mountain Valley pipeline and will operate it once it is online – which is expected to be in the first quarter of 2024. When the company started construction in February 2018, Equitrans estimated the 2.0 billion ft3/d project would cost about US$3.5 billion and enter service by late 2018. Now, the project stands to cost nearly US$7.2 billion, having faced numerous legal challenges and labour issues. Bloomberg, citing Citi analyst Spiro Dounis, highlighted that with the pipeline close to being complete, exploring a potential sale would make sense. Equitrans was spun out of the natural gas firm EQT Corp. in 2018, The pipeline operator has a market capitalisation of US$4 billion.
Ongoing Resistance to the Mountain Valley Pipeline – KPFA --First up, we checked back in with folks involved in the struggle to block the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a 303 mile so-called natural gas pipeline proposed to bring fracked gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations across parts of West Virginia and Virginia with an extension into North Carolina. Since a chat with activists we had in July, there have been nearly weekly actions to block the expansion of the pipeline across waterways and carsed terraine, endangering water tables and ecosystems around central Appalachia. For the hour we talk about this proposed project, the damage that’s been done and continues to be spread, the increasing belligerence of the men employed in the destruction and the ramping up legal repression facing activists and community members.You can learn more by checking out StopMVP.org or follow the social media accounts AppalachiansAgainstPipelines or POWHR. Support of the movement can also be offered up at Appalachian Legal Support Fund. To learn more about the funders of the MVP, check this out. Check out our past interviews about the MVP here.
US November LNG exports approach record levels amid higher output U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in November rose to the second highest monthly production level on record, 7.99 million metric tons of the super chilled gas, according to tanker tracking data. The U.S. was the world’s largest exporter of LNG in the first half of this year, according to the Energy Information Agency (EIA), ahead of Qatar and Australia. New export plants expected to begin production next year will cement its status as top exporter, analysts have said. November’s volumes were just shy of April’s record 8.01 million tons and abovethe 7.92 million tons shipped in October, according to trade flows and tanker tracking data published by financial firm LSEG. U.S. LNG producers continued to focus exports on Europe as winter begins in the northern hemisphere, with greater shipments delivered to customers in that region. In November, about 68%of all U.S. LNG was exported to Europe, an increase from October’s 65%, the data showed. Lower than normal temperatures in Europe are unlikely to drive higher prices as storage levels remain elevated, according to analysts at consultants Rystad Energy. European gas storage was about 97% full at month’s end, it reported. “This will drive up heating demand, but is unlikely to reverse the current bearish demand outlook, given soft industrial activity and healthy renewable energy output in the region”, Rystad said in a note to clients. U.S. gas futures this week averaged $2.78 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at the U.S. Henry Hub, $13.54 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility hub and $16.33 per mmBtu at the Japan Korea Marker in Asia. Fewer U.S. cargoes headed to Asia last month. Exports to that region fell to 18.5% of the total from 20% in October, while shipments to Latin America remained almost unchanged at about 5% of total, LSEG data showed. Natural gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to a record 14.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from 13.7 bcfd in October and the prior all-time high of 14.0 bcfd in April, according to LSEG data. Gas flows to U.S. liquefaction plants remain at record-high levels with a 30-day average utilization rate running close to 106% of nameplate capacity, said Rystad Energy.
DT Midstream Readies Second Phase of Haynesville System Expansion for January Service -- DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) said it has finished building the 400 MMcf/d second-phase expansion of its Louisiana Energy Access Project, or LEAP, and expects the new capacity to be available for firm service on Jan. 1. The Detroit-based company on Wednesday announced “early mechanical completion” of the expansion that would boost capacity of the 150-mile, 36-inch diameter pipeline by 70% to 1.7 Bcf/d. LEAP carries Haynesville Shale supply in Louisiana to the Gulf Coast for industrial use and LNG exports. The Jan. 1 start of firm service is in line with an initial schedule set in 2022 as well as an update on the company’s third-quarter earnings call. In November, CEO David Slater said the Phase 1 expansion “has been running flat out” since it went into service in August,...
US weekly LNG exports reach 24 cargoes - US liquefaction plants shipped 24 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the week ending November 29, while natural gas deliveries to these terminals dropped by 0.6 percent compared to the week before. The EIA said in its weekly report, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, that the total capacity of these 24 LNG vessels is 91 Bcf. The agency did not release its weekly report in the prior week due to to holidays. During the week of November 9-15, US terminals shipped 27 LNG cargoes. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals during the week November 23-29 decreased by 0.1 Bcf/d compared to the prior week, averaging 14.3 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.5 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 8.7 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 1.7 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast decreased by 2.2 percent (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped nine LNG cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent three shipments during the week under review. The Freeport LNG terminal and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass each shipped four cargoes, while Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal dispatched three LNG cargoes. Also, the Cove Point plant sent one cargo during the week. The Elba Island LNG terminal did no ship cargoes during the week under review.
Construction progress continues on Golden Pass LNG export plant - Energy giants QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil released the latest construction update for their Golden Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal on the US Gulf Coast near Sabine Pass, Texas. State-owned QatarEnergy owns a 70 percent stake in the Golden Pass project with a capacity of more than 18 mtpa and will offtake 70 percent of the capacity, while US energy firm ExxonMobil has a 30 percent share. A joint venture of Chiyoda, McDermott, and Zachry is building the tree Golden Pass trains worth about $10 billion next to the existing LNG import terminal.Golden Pass LNG Terminal and Golden Pass Pipeline said in the newest construction report filed with the US FERC that Golden Pass is continuing to carry out Phase I and Phase II activities, such as storm water protection, levee construction, stockpiling of material, and piling. Golden Pass and its contractors progressed installation of piping and steel in process and utilities areas, continued piping and vessels insulation activities and helical piles and piping installation for the ground flares, while concrete foundation pours continued in Train 2 and Train 3. In addition, Golden Pass progressed setting various vessels on respective foundations and progressed brownfield tie-ins in Trains 2 and 3, and progressed brownfield tie-ins and LNG tank tops modifications scope. Golden Pass also progressed cable tray installations and cable pulling activities and continued pipe pneumatic / hydrostatic testing program. Construction progress continues on Golden Pass LNG export plantGround flares (Image: Golden Pass LNG)As per the pipeline expansion project, Golden Pass continued civil activities and concrete foundation pours at milepost MP33 and MP69 compressor stations and also continued pipe fabrication and installation at these stations. It also continued construction activities of the Sabine Spur, Natural Gas Pipeline (NGPL)Interconnect improvements, and associated facilities. Regarding the start of operations, the FERC said in an inspection report in October that the anticipated in-service timing for the first Golden Pass train is the second half of 2024, with the second and the third train following after. The anticipated in-service timing for the pipeline expansion project is expected sometime prior to the second half of 2024, it said.
Magnolia LNG Latest to File for New Export Authorization After DOE Policy Shift -Magnolia LNG LLC has filed for a new authorization to export the super-chilled fuel from its proposed facility in Louisiana, the second U.S. project to do so since U.S. regulators said in April they wouldn’t issue extensions to start operations in most cases. The Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC affiliate withdrew its request on Nov. 29 for a five-year extension to start service and begin exporting to non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries. It filed a new application with the U.S. Department of Energy the same day, requesting authorization to export gas to non-FTA countries until Dec. 31, 2050. The company has also requested that the DOE expedite its application. Earlier this year, the DOE issued a policy statement reaffirming its expectations that liquefied natural gas...seven-year deadline for authorization holders to commence exports of domestically produced natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), to non-free trade agreement (non-FTA) countries ...
Venture Global CEO Criticizes Shell, BP as Dispute With LNG Offtakers Continues - Venture Global LNG Inc. CEO Michael Sabel said some of the company’s long-term offtakers are attempting to undermine the new exporter’s competitive edge in pointed comments published Tuesday by the Financial Times. Sabel’s comments are some of his strongest yet in what’s become a very public dispute with offtakers that have accused the company of failing to deliver contracted liquefied natural gas. Sabel told the Financial Times that Venture Global is a “catastrophe” and “competitive threat” for the companies alleging contract violations. LNG market heavyweights and supermajors BP plc and Shell plc have joined Repsol SA and Edison SpA in arbitration proceedings against the Gulf Coast exporter.
Chesapeake Working to Diversify LNG Supply Deals, Gain Price Exposure in Asia, Europe - While Chesapeake Energy Corp. works to finalize its natural gas supply deals with LNG buyers, management says it’s narrowing down opportunities to link more of its Haynesville and Marcellus shale supply to international benchmarks in the months to come. Chesapeake currently has tentative agreements with liquefied natural gas traders that could link up to 3 million metric tons/year (mmty) worth of feed gas supply to international indexes. Chesapeake’s Justin Brady, LNG and commercial operations director, told NGI the company is looking to capitalize further on that momentum and potentially place as much as an additional 4 mmty under supply agreements in the short-term.
‘Stronger Desire’ by Customers to Lock in Long-Term LNG Contracts, Says ExxonMobil CEO - Natural gas demand has not slowed, and that’s helping to grease the skids for export contracts, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Wednesday. During a webcast to discuss capital spending and projected plans, Woods was asked about the company’s opportunities in the global LNG export market. The integrated major is a partner in several big gas projects. Has it become more difficult to secure LNG customers with the plethora of competing projects in the queue?
US natgas prices drops 5% on mild weather view, record output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 5% on Monday on record output and forecasts for mild weather that should limit heating demand. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 14.2 cents lower, or 5.1%, to $2.67 per million British thermal units at 11:00 a.m. EST (1600 GMT), after hitting a two-month low earlier in the session. "If we don't see cold weather in December or January, the chance of prices getting to $3 is limited. For us to see higher prices, storage surplus have to come down, which comes with colder weather." With U.S. natural gas production at record highs and ample amounts of fuel in storage, the futures market was sending signals that some traders have already given up hope of extreme price spikes this winter. Analysts said the mild weather and record output should allow utilities to pull less gas than usual from storage than normal in coming weeks. They forecast U.S. gas stockpiles would end up about 7.2% over normal for this time of year in the week ended Dec. 1. EIA/GAS Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states jumped to a record 108.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from the prior all-time high of 104.8 bcfd in October. LSEG forecast that U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 129.9 bcfd last week to 122.6 bcfd this week before rising to 125.3 bcfd with the coming of seasonally cooler weather next week. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a third week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes BKR.O said in its closely followed report on Friday. "On the supply side, new record production would appear to lie ahead as well efficiencies improve and the rig counts sustain a leveling trend following steady declines into last summer," said analysts at energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates in a note. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar. Much higher global prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. Gas was trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $16.25 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia
US natgas drops 5% to near 3-month low as oil prices collapse (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell by about 5% on Wednesday to the lowest in nearly three months, pressured by a drop in oil prices, near-record U.S. gas output and forecasts for mostly mild weather through late December that should dent heating demand. Analysts forecast U.S. gas stockpiles were about 7.2% above normal levels for this time of year. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.9 cents, or 4.8%, to $2.581 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 12:04 p.m. EST (1704 GMT), on track for its lowest close since Sept. 7. Oil prices dropped about 4% on a big rise in U.S. gasoline inventories. O/R The futures market has been sending signals for weeks that many traders do not expect price spikes this winter (November-March) due to record production and ample amounts of gas in storage. Many in the market think futures for this heating season peaked in November. The biggest sign the market has given up on higher prices during this winter was the collapse of the premium of March 2024 futures over April 2024 NGH24-J24 to a record low of just one cent per mmBtu. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves on changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion in 2006. Power and gas prices often soar when it turns cold in New England, where pipeline constraints limit the amount of gas that can reach region. Most of it is used to heat homes and businesses, so power plants must switch to more expensive fuels like oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2022, about 54% of power generated in New England came from gas-fired plants with the rest coming from nuclear (27%), hydro (7%), other (5%), wind (4%), oil (2%) and solar (1%). Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from a record 107.8 bcfd in November. Daily output was on track to drop by 2.1 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary four-week low of 106.2 bcfd on Wednesday. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected the weather would turn from warmer-than-normal Dec. 6-12 to near-normal from Dec. 13-16, then back to warmer-than-normal from Dec. 17-21. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 121.8 bcfd this week to 126.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.4 bcfd so far in December, up from a record 14.3 bcfd in November.
US natgas slides to 3-month low on mild weather, Golden Pass LNG delay (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a three-month low on Thursday on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand as investors worried liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would not grow much in 2024. On Wednesday, Exxon delayed expected LNG production at its 2.4-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas to the first half of 2025 from the second half of 2024. Traders said that delay helped sink futures prices by about 5% on Wednesday because it would reduce demand and leave more gas in the U.S., forcing producers to cut production or inject more gas into storage or both. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a massive 117 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal from storage during the week ended Dec. 1, bigger than the 106-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and exceeding a withdrawal of 30 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 48 bcf. Analysts said last week's withdrawal was bigger than usual because cold weather boosted heating demand. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.4 cents, or 1.7%, to $2.525 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 11:04 a.m. EST (1604 GMT). For the second straight day, it was on track for its lowest close since Sept. 6 and also in oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 30. With record production levels and ample storage, the gas futures market has been sending bearish signals for weeks that futures prices for this winter (November-March) had likely already peaked in November. One of the biggest signs the market has given up on winter price spikes was the collapse of the premium of futures for March over April NGH24-J24 to a record low of just one cent per mmBtu. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Traders have noted that gas demand peaks during the winter heating season and therefore summer prices should not trade above winter. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 107.3 bcfd so far in December from a record 107.8 bcfd in November. Daily output was on track to drop by 2.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary one-month low of 106.0 bcfd on Thursday. Meteorologists projected the weather would turn from warmer-than-normal from Dec. 7-10 to near-normal from Dec. 11-14 and then back to warmer-than-normal from Dec. 15-22.
MPSC approve Enbridge’s tunnel for oil pipeline | World Pipelines - Michigan regulators on Friday 1 December, 2023, approved Canadian pipeline company Enbridge Inc's application to build a tunnel under the Great Lakes to house its aging Line 5 oil pipeline, a major step forward for the US$750 million project, reported Reuters. Enbridge is planning to replace a section of the pipeline, which runs underwater for 4 miles (6.4 km) through the Straits of Mackinac between Lakes Michigan and Huron, to address concerns Line 5 could leak. The Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) approved Enbridge's siting application, finding there was a public need to protect the Great Lakes from the risk of an oil spill while also keeping the pipeline operating. "There are no feasible and prudent alternatives to the replacement project pursuant to the Michigan Environmental Protection Act (MEPA)," the MPSC said in a decision posted on its website. Calgary-based Enbridge still requires federal permits from the US Army Corps of Engineers and construction is not expected to start before 2026. The company first submitted an application to build the tunnel in 2020 to address concerns Line 5 could leak. The 70 year old pipeline carries 540 000 bpd from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario, and is at the centre of a long-running legal dispute between Enbridge and the state of Michigan, which says it should be shut down. "With the MPSC’s decision, the Michigan agencies involved in the permitting process have given the go ahead for this critical project," Enbridge spokesperson Ryan Duffy said in a statement. The decision was criticised by some environmental groups opposed to the project, who say it is not necessary to keep Line 5 running in a world aiming to transition away from fossil fuels to cleaner sources of energy.
Michigan regulators approve $500M pipeline tunnel project under channel linking 2 Great Lakes - Michigan officials approved a $500 million plan Friday to encase in a protective tunnel a portion of an oil pipeline that runs beneath a channel connecting two Great Lakes, leaving just one more regulatory hurdle for the contentious project. The state's three-person Public Service Commission approved the project in the Straits of Mackinac on a 2-0 vote. Commissioner Alessandra Carreon abstained, noting she just joined the commission four months ago. The commission's chairperson, Dan Scripps, said that an oil spill in the straits, which link Lake Michigan to Lake Huron, would be catastrophic. The tunnel is the best way to mitigate the risk as the state transitions to renewable energy sources, he said. The plan still needs approval from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is still compiling an environmental impact statement. A final decision may not come until 2026. Enbridge Energy has been operating the Line 5 pipeline since 1953. The pipeline moves up to 23 million gallons of crude oil and natural gas liquids daily between Superior, Wisconsin, and Sarnia, Ohio. A 4-mile portion of the pipeline crosses the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac. After an Enbridge pipeline leaked about 21,000 gallons of crude oil into a Kalamazoo River tributary in southern Michigan in 2010, the state formed a task force to review petroleum pipelines across the state, including Line 5. Enbridge officials revealed in 2017 that engineers had known about gaps in Line 5's protective coating in the straits since 2014. That section of pipeline was also damaged by a boat anchor in 2018, raising concerns about a spill. Later that year, then-Republican Gov. Rick Snyder's administration reached an agreement with Enbridge calling for the company to build a tunnel 60 to 375 feet beneath the lakebed to house a new section of Line 5 and shut down the existing segment at a cost of $500 million. Current Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has said she opposes the continued operation of Line 5 under the straits — even with the new tunnel — agreeing with Indigenous tribes, environmentalists and tourist businesses that it is at risk of causing a devastating spill.
‘Another notch in a long history of ignoring the rights of Tribal Nations’ | Michigan Tribe Condemns Line 5 Permit - Today, the Bay Mills Indian Community released a statement condemning a decision by the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) approving a permit for the Canadian oil giant Enbridge to replace the disastrous Line 5 dual oil pipelines under the Great Lakes. Line 5 is a 645-mile pipeline that transports up to 23 million gallons of crude oil and natural gas liquids daily from western to eastern Canada, cutting across the treaty-reserved territory of tribal nations in Wisconsin and Michigan. The section that runs through the Straits of Mackinac, a waterway connecting Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, diverges into two 20-inch diameter steel pipes, posing a risk to the public. The Michigan’s Attorney General is currently suing Enbridge to shut it down. The Bay Mills Indian Community, a Tribal Nation in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula that has relied on the Straits since time immemorial has fought to prevent this outcome in a contested case before the MPCS. Safety experts warn that the project could lead to a massive explosion and an oil spill in the Great Lakes, which holds 84 percent of North America’s surface freshwater. "Instead of complying with a Governor's public safety order to decommission Line 5 in Michigan, individuals working at a state agency granted Enbridge a permit for a project for which they hold no property rights and no safety track record in good standing,” Bay Mills President Whitney Grvelle said in a statement. “Today’s decision is another notch in a long history of ignoring the rights of Tribal Nations. We must act now to protect the peoples of the Great Lakes from an oil spill, to lead our communities out of the fossil fuel era, and to preserve the shared lands and waters in Michigan for all of us." The Bay Mills Indian Community is also currently challenging a separate permit for the project. In addition, Bay Mills is advocating with the US Army Corps of Engineers, which is expected to release a draft federal review of the project’s environmental impacts in the spring of 2025. "Protecting the Great Lakes from the threat of Line 5 has been our priority for a number of years," said attorney Rebecca Liebing, in-house counsel for Bay Mills Indian Community, in a statement. "We are more resolved than ever to retire this outdated and dangerous oil pipeline."
Contaminated soil removed October BP gas pipeline break Girard — Containers of contaminated soil have been removed following the BP petroleum pipeline break site on Bell Road Oct. 17. Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy spokesperson Jill Greenberg said, “BP contractors removed the bulk of impacted soil and installed a set of temporary groundwater monitoring wells.” In the last six weeks, contractors using backhoes removed soil from around the line break, which spilled 8,400 gallons of gasoline. Over two dozen covered dumpsters that filled a wooden pad were trucked to a licensed Ohio burn facility to clean the soil. Greenberg said, “While soil and groundwater samples were collected, final confirmation soil samples and groundwater samples have not yet been received by EGLE. These samples will likely guide the long-term direction and continued work at the site.” Most of the contractors have left the 70-acre farm. A 30-by-50-foot area opened for repair is now closed, surrounded by an orange snow fence. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is investigating the break. The ruptured section of the 80-year-old 10-inch metal line was sent to an independent testing laboratory. PHMSA said, “The investigation is ongoing, and the third-party metallurgical analysis has not been issued yet.” The break area is near Vincent, Round, and Fox Lakes along Hog Creek, a wetland area. The break was on the west side of Bell Road, across from the Potawatomi Campground, which had closed for the season. Officials evacuated the half dozen homes in the area for several days until the immediate danger from the gasoline abated. Less than two weeks after the break, PHMSA allowed the repaired line to reopen, supplying three million gallons of gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel daily between the BP Whiting, Indiana refinery and a River Rouge terminal.
US Coast Guard responds to oil spill in Gulf of Mexico (Reuters) - The U.S. Coast Guard said on Wednesday it was responding to an oil discharge near the Main Pass Oil Gathering (MPOG) Co's pipeline system in the Gulf of Mexico, while the main pipeline and several surrounding ones remained shut in. "The reported sheen is being investigated and has not been confirmed to be associated with the November 16 observed initial discharge," the Coast Guard said. The Coast Guard had not yet identified any damage or indication of a leak after surveying the entire length of the pipeline along with 22.16 miles (36 km) of surrounding pipelines. Remote-controlled devices and divers continued to reassess the pipelines. About 3% of the Gulf of Mexico's daily oil production remained shut in after a million-gallon oil spill, the Coast Guard said last week. The pipeline was closed by Third Coast's MPOG on Nov. 16 after crude oil was spotted around 19 miles (30 km) offshore the Mississippi River delta, near Plaquemines Parish, southeast of New Orleans. The main pipeline and several surrounding lines remain shut in and have not been put back into service, the Coast Guard said while leading efforts to mitigate impacts from the spill.
Talos Energy sees 'immaterial' impact in fourth quarter from Gulf of Mexico oil spill (Reuters) - U.S. oil and gas producer Talos Energy said on Thursday it expects the impact related to the Main Pass Oil Gathering pipeline shut-in following an oil spill to be immaterial to its fourth-quarter results. The oil spill was first observed on Nov. 16 around 19 miles (30 km) offshore the Mississippi River delta, shutting in around 89 miles of underwater pipelines and around 3% of the Gulf of Mexico's daily crude oil output. Talos said it anticipates first production for its Venice and Lime Rock wells ahead of schedule by the end of this year. The company also reaffirmed its fourth-quarter production forecast in the range of 66,500-68,5000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Chevron Raises 2024 Spending, Anchored by U.S. Projects in Permian and Gulf of Mexico - The United States is set to capture two-thirds of Chevron Corp.’s upstream capital in the coming year, with most of the budget designed to expand infrastructure, drill longer laterals and increase well completions. Total capital expenditures (capex) are set at $18.5-19.5 billion, up 11% year/year. The double-digit capex plan is geared in part to two big mergers this year: the $53 billion takeover of Hess Corp., and a $6.3 billion deal for Denver-Julesburg Basin heavyweight PDC Energy Inc. “We’re maintaining capital discipline in both traditional and new energies,” CEO Mike Wirth said. “These investments are expected to underpin durable free cash flow growth to support our objective of returning more cash to shareholders.” The PDC transaction, accounted for in...
Fracking earthquakes a devil’s bargain Texas doesn’t need - As if Texas didn’t already have enough disasters — floods, fires, tornadoes, explosions — it has added a new kind to the list. At around 4:30 a.m. on Nov. 8, Texas recorded the fourth-largest earthquake in the state’s history, a 5.3 magnitude event. Thankfully it was miles south of Mentone, a West Texas town with a census count of 10 souls. The tremors, however, rippled all the way to central New Mexico. The relevance of this particular earthquake wasn’t its relatively high magnitude or its minimal damage. It’s that it happened in the middle of the Permian Basin, the nation’s largest oil field. That’s no coincidence. Temblors in Texas have risen sharply over the past decade, and research has linked the increased seismic activity to fracking. After oil and gas are pumped from production wells, they’re separated from the groundwater that comes up with them. That water is toxic, so it’s typically injected back into the porous rock formations. That creates fluid pressure on ancient fault lines. Eventually that pressure builds to the point that the fault lines slip, causing earthquakes. Oil and gas producers have made a devil's bargain with Texas' geography. They print money by extracting oil and gas from this desolate yet bountiful region — the Permian generated roughly $182 billion in gross domestic product this year. In turn, they drastically alter our underground geology, leading to earthquakes, sinkholes and even permanent saltwater lakes created from briny, contaminated water. The Texas Railroad Commission, the state agency tasked with oversight of the oil and gas industry, mostly neglects its responsibilities. Will they step up this time? The railroad commission and county officials established a plan a year ago: After a quake of 4.5 or higher, the commission would prohibit operators from injecting wastewater underground for up to two years. ... The Houston Chronicle's Amanda Drane reported that up to 600,000 barrels a day of injection capacity could be lost if the commission imposes this rule, which of course would impact the bottom lines of many oil and gas operators, as well as the economic wellbeing of many West Texas boomtowns. Consider that the housekeepers at two "man camps" for oil field workers north of Mentone get paid $45,000, along with free room and board and a full benefits package. The railroad commission said it was working with operators to limit injection wells where the earthquake happened, though the agency did not specifically say whether it would enforce its own rule. Following through should be the minimum. Temporarily shutting down injection wells while hoping that others don't trip up fault lines is a shortsighted, whack-a-mole strategy. What the commission needs is a regulatory system that accounts for Texas' geographic limitations. We're not holding our breath. The railroad commissioners are so chummy with the industry that they rake in campaign donations from oil and gas companies, while also trading oil and gas stocks and owning mineral interests. Ideally, to decide where operators are allowed to drill, the commission would use the plethora of data that show which parts of the Permian Basin have problematic seismic activity. It would enforce responsible water management and spur investment in facilities and pipelines that recycle the produced water used for drilling. It would limit operators from blasting produced water back underground or discharging it in our rivers, creeks and streams. That level of planning would be good for business, giving operators the ability to invest and drill accordingly. It would also protect Texas' natural environment and mitigate the risk to property and people. It's the sort of commonsense policy that we wish we could expect of that commission all the time.
Bakken, Permian Take Spotlight in Quarterly Federal Oil, Natural Gas Auctions - The U.S. Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) recent round of fourth quarter oil and natural gas lease sales drew less industry interest than prior sales, but more producers picked up acreage in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale and the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin. The lease sales in New Mexico netted more than $22.3 million for six parcels in Eddy and Lea counties, in the heart of the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin. More than 150 bids were placed for the 430 acres offered, with the highest bid topping $16 million for 120 acres in Eddy County. Eddy and Lea counties accounted for 28% of all Permian natural gas production in 1Q2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Associated natural gas production from the counties has nearly doubled over...
New Mexico governor proposes $500M to treat fracking wastewater - — New Mexico would underwrite development of a strategic new source of water by buying treated water that originates from the used, salty byproducts of oil and natural gas drilling, and help preserve its freshwater aquifers in the process, under a proposal from the state’s Democratic governor.The initiative from Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, announced Tuesday from theinternational climate conference at Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, would set water purification standards and purchase treated water that originates from oil fields as well as the state’s vast natural underground reservoirs of brine. It requires legislative approval. The idea is to create a government-guaranteed market for the commodity — treated water — and attract private enterprise to build desalinization and treatment facilities, securing new sources of water for industrial applications. The administration hopes to make the water available to businesses ranging from microchip manufacturers to hydrogen fuel producers that separate the element from water in an energy-intensive process.Lujan Grisham said she’ll ask the Legislature to set aside $500 million to underwrite acquisition of treated water. The arrangement would harness the state’s bonding authority and financial reserves held in its multibillion-dollar Severance Tax Permanent Fund. The trust, founded in the 1970s, is sustained by taxes on the extraction of oil, natural gas and other minerals from state land.“We’re going to turn water — this waste, which is a problem — into a commodity,” Lujan Grisham said at the conference. “We give a fixed, long-term, (let’s) say 30-year contract to any number of companies that can provide the technology to identify that water, to clean that water up, and to use it in chip manufacturing, solar manufacturing.”She said the goal is avoid a reckoning on fresh-water supplies as the Rio Grande and underground fresh-water aquifers recede. The state also has extensive underground reservoirs of salty water that have been of limited use.That brackish water is a crucial component in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and advanced drilling techniques that have helped turn New Mexico into the No. 2 oil production state in the U.S. The state’s oil wells draw out far more water than oil, by several multiples, according to oil field regulators.
House GOP Would Have Taxpayers Pay for Cleanup When Fracking Boom Goes Bust – A house committee is considering legislation introduced by Colorado Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert that could leave taxpayers on the hook for up to $17.7 billion in costs associated with cleaning up oil and gas wells abandoned on public lands by fracking companies and other polluters, according to a new report from the watchdog group Public Citizen. Oil and gas industry lobbyists and their allies on Capitol Hill are working to defeat a Biden administration proposal that would strengthen federal requirements designed to force fossil fuel companies to plug wells and clean up drilling sites on federal lands after extraction. Boebert’s bill would direct the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to withdraw its proposal, and the House Natural Resources Committee considered the bill for markup on Wednesday. “The boom-and-bust nature of the oil and gas industry puts taxpayers at higher risk for well cleanup because, when prices fall for oil and gas, bad actors have an economic incentive to just walk away from their wells, leaving taxpayers in the lurch,” Alan Zibel, a Public Citizen research director, said in a statement. The BLM manages vast swaths of land in the Western U.S. and a leasing program that allows fossil fuel companies to extract oil and gas from more than 89,000 wells across 23.7 million acres. Public Citizen reports that the industry has for decades exploited loose federal rules for drilling on public lands while the government charges “woefully inadequate royalties” to compensate the public for extraction. The industry then exports the oil and gas overseas or sells it back to U.S. consumers. President Joe Biden pledged on the campaign trail that his administration would not offer new leases allowing fossil fuel extraction to expand on public lands, but the president instead signed legislation hiking royalties for fossil fuel leases and directed federal regulators to develop tougher rules to reduce pollution and ensure that taxpayers don’t get stuck paying for cleanup after fracking booms go bust.Under federal rules, fossil fuel companies are required to post a bond in order to obtain a lease for drilling on federal land. If an oil and gas company abandons an exploration site, goes bankrupt, or fails to “plug” a well securely to prevent pollution from leaking out, the posted bond covers the government’s cost of cleaning up the drilling site. If the company cleans up after extraction, then the bond is returned. Using three different estimates for the average cost of plugging oil and gas wells and cleaning up an extraction site ranging from $35,000 on the low end to $200,000, Public Citizen estimates that abandoned wells on federal public lands could cost taxpayers $2.9 billion to $17.7 billion. These figures include the current required bond payment of $2,122 per well, which the Biden administration is pushing to increase.Boebert said small oil and gas companies are upset about new costs of doing business on public land. Large fossil fuel corporations can easily absorb the costs and often support Biden-era regulations to save face during the climate crisis and gain a competitive advantage over smaller competitors.“These increases will impact smaller producers who can’t operate in the market,” Boebert said on Wednesday.Smaller oil and gas extractors in particular are notorious for abandoning “orphaned wells” and declaring bankruptcy when oil and gas prices drop or wells simply go dry. In Louisiana, where the oil and gas industry has been around for a century, more than 4,600 wells abandoned years ago have become the cash-strapped state’s responsibility and are known to pose a danger to children and the public while leaking pollution into sensitive ecosystems.Western states, such as Texas, New Mexico and Boebert’s home state of Colorado are currently experiencing a massive fracking boom and will likely face the same problem years down the line. There are currently more than 81,000 documented orphaned wells nationwide,according to the Environmental Defense Fund. Inactive and abandoned wells are often left to rust and are capable of releasing more climate-warming emissions into the atmosphere than active wells.
Standing Rock’s fight against DAPL far from over - – Doug Crow Ghost, Hunkpapa Lakota, opens a large binder labeled “Volume II: Dakota Access Pipeline Lake Oahe Crossing Project Draft Environmental Impact Statement.” The binder is supposed to contain instructions for the tribe should there be a leak in the Dakota Access Pipeline. Instead, the entire page is redacted, replaced with a massive black square. “So, this is what we do if there’s a leak,” said Crow Ghost, water administrator for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe, holding the binder open to two entirely redacted pages. A public forum held November 1 and November 2 in Bismarck was meant to be an opportunity for concerned citizens and tribal officials to provide feedback on the draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). The EIS outlines five options for the future of the pipeline. Options include denying the easement that allows for the Cannon Ball, N.D.; crossing, abandoning or removing the segment; granting the easement with no changes or additional safety measures; or rerouting the pipeline north of Bismarck. The Bismarck format of the public forum upset many in attendance. Many, including Standing Rock officials, expected a public hearing-style forum. Instead, the forum was a one-on-one meeting with a stenographer present to write down concerns. There was also an opportunity for individuals to write comments. Standing Rock tribal leaders said several tribal leaders, citizens and general community members were unable to enter the building where the forum was held. Tribal officials said Bismarck law enforcement asked for identification from anyone attempting to enter. A sign posted outside on November 2 said meeting by invitation only, no media allowed. Standing Rock Chairwoman Janet Alkire called for the draft review to be invalidated and the pipeline shutdown. Alkire voiced concerns over online comments made not being fully considered. A press release from the tribe called the forum undemocratic. “The quietly announced sessions initially excluded key tribal participants. Would-be speakers were also asked to submit written comments or were siloed with a stenographer rather than being heard in a truly public forum,” the press release said.
Dangerous proximity of ships, pipeline led to California oil spill - A federal agency wants changes in how container ships are anchored off Southern California as well as new safety measures for vessels near offshore pipelines to help prevent or minimize ruptures like the one that spilled 25,000 gallons of crude oil off Huntington Beach. The 2021 spill caused damage to beaches and wetlands and killed scores of fish and birds.
Surging U.S. Oil Production Brings Down Prices and Raises Climate Fears - American oil fields are gushing again, helping to drive down fuel prices but also threatening to undercut efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Only three years after U.S. oil production collapsed during the pandemic, energy companies are cranking out a record 13.2 million barrels a day, more than Russia or Saudi Arabia. The flow of oil has grown by roughly 800,000 barrels a day since early 2022, and analysts expect the industry to add another 500,000 barrels a day next year.The main driver of the production surge is a delayed response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which sent the price of oil to well over $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly a decade. The wells that were drilled last year are now in full swing.With the surge in output, gasoline prices have fallen by close to $2 a gallon since the summer of 2022 and are back to levels that prevailed in 2021. The increase in production has also provided the Biden administration with substantial leverage in its dealings with oil-exporting foes like Russia, Venezuela and Iran while reducing its need to cajole more friendly countries like Saudi Arabia to temper prices.But the comeback in U.S. oil production poses big risks, too. More supply and lower prices could increase demand for fossil fuels when world leaders, who are meeting in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, are straining to reach agreements that would accelerate the fight against climate change. Scientists generally agree that the world is far from achieving the goals necessary to avoid the catastrophic effects of global warming, which is caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels like oil, natural gas and coal.“We’re achieving energy security and reducing inflation by leveraging high-emitting, carbon-intensive oil production,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University. “We’re going to need to address that conflict.”The United States now exports roughly four million barrels a day, more than any member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries except Saudi Arabia. On balance, the United States still imports more than it exports because domestic demand exceeds supply and many American refineries can more easily refine the heavier oil produced in Canada and Latin America than the lighter crude that oozes out of the shale fields of New Mexico, North Dakota and Texas.Nearly every extra barrel of American crude produced is being exported, mostly to Europe and Asia, where supplies are tight. In addition, the natural gas that often bubbles up with oil has led to record exports of gas and helped to lower prices for that fuel and for electricity, much of which is produced at gas-fired power plants in the United States.
Growing U.S. Oil Exports Put Lasting Pressure on Prices - Until 2015, U.S. crude oil producers were prohibited from exporting oil without a special license. In 2015, this changed. Since then, the U.S. has become a top-five exporter. This has been positive for supply security and consumers by keeping a lid on prices. It has not, however, been positive for OPEC, especially recently, as the cartel struggles to reverse the latest price decline. What's more, U.S. exports continue to grow, expected to have hit yet another record last week. And WTI just fell below $70 per barrel on Thursday, meaning U.S. oil will remain attractive for importers in the observable future. And now there's talk about an actual oil glut. Cargo-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa has suggested U.S. crude oil exports hit a record of nearly 6 million barrels daily last week. The two put the export rate at 5.7 million bpd. Per a Bloomberg report, Macquarie data goes even higher, seeing U.S. oil exports at 5.9 million bpd. Neither of these figures was confirmed by the Energy Information Administration in its latest weekly report, which put crude oil exports from the U.S. at 4.3 million bpd for the week to December 1, down from 4.75 million bpd a week earlier. The four-week average export rate, according to the EIA, stood at 4.69 million bpd.Despite the substantial discrepancy between export estimates, the fact remains that the U.S. is now a major exporter. And reports of rising exports have added fuel to emerging worries about a potential oversupply, even as OPEC prepares to remove even more oil from the market.Bloomberg noted in its report that the increase in exports has resulted from record-breaking production, which surprised many industry observers amid drillers' new focus on capital discipline and returning cash to shareholders. Somehow, however, they managed to ramp up production despite these.The outlet also noted that there is now talk of oversupply well into 2024. That might come as a surprise to commodity analysts who seem to expect higher oil prices next year. Goldman Sachs, for instance, said in late November it expected Brent crude to range between $70 and $100, noting that "the price of oil in 2024 will depend heavily on OPEC" and non-OPEC producers outside the U.S. It's strange that Goldman has missed the new shale boom and the record exports. ING has also focused on OPEC in its commodities outlook for 2024, highlighting the cartel's central role in oil price formation next year. In fact, ING forecast a modest deficit on oil markets in the first half of 2024.Indeed, Bloomberg points out that the estimated surge of U.S. oil shipments abroad in the last week of November could be seasonal. Producers are looking to get rid of as many barrels as they can as the end of the year and tax season approaches. The effect on prices remains the same, however, whatever the motivation behind the higher shipments—if the cargo trackers are right and not the EIA.In addition to the bearish news from cargo tracking service providers, Saudi Arabia reduced its oil prices for Asian buyers for January. While it did not reduce them as much as expected, the market read the reduction as a sign of despair—even as Bloomberg reported that disappointed buyers were looking for cheaper alternatives.
Alberta Sees Double-Digit Growth in Oil, Natural Gas Investments This Year - Alberta, Canada’s top hydrocarbon producing province, has seen strong investment in both oil and natural gas projects, which is leading to a strong revenue boost in 2023. “Prospects for the energy sector remain positive, underpinned by solid energy prices and the anticipated increase in Alberta’s takeaway capacity,” according to Alberta’s recent fiscal update. “Energy prices are anticipated to remain supportive of activity,” the researchers said. “Producers are also expected to continue drilling at a solid pace.” Producers, however, are still expected to maintain capital discipline in expanding production and would continue to invest in emissions reduction initiatives. Conventional oil production hit a five-year high in September. Natural gas output and...
Canada Oil, Gas Capital Spending Up at $7.85B in Q3 -- Canada’s oil and gas extraction industries deployed CAD 10.6 billion ($7.85 billion) in capital during the third quarter (Q3), up 1.68 percent from the prior three-month period and 12.76 percent from the same quarter last year, official data has shown. Total capital expenses for the oil and gas extraction industries for the first three quarters of 2023 rose 20 percent year-on-year, Statistics Canada recently reported. Oil and gas extraction capital expenditure in the country has consistently increased since 2021 as oil and gas prices rebounded from a decrease during the coronavirus pandemic. In the eight years from 2015 to 2022, capex for this sector peaked 2015 at CAD 31.61 billion ($23.41 billion) and fell to its lowest at CAD 14.16 billion ($10.49 billion) in 2020, a year into the pandemic, according to a database on the government agency’s website. In the oil province of Alberta in 2022 total capex for the sectors of oil and gas, oil sands and emerging resources climbed 44 percent to CAD 26.6 billion ($19.7 billion) compared to 2021, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator. “After the price recovery from the pandemic in 2021, global energy prices continued to rise significantly in 2022, leading to a more favorable investment environment”, the regulators says in a report on its website. Alberta expects investment in the oil and gas extraction industries to grow 18 percent or by over CAD 4.5 billion ($3.33 billion) in 2023, with moderate growths for 2024 and 2025, according to a fiscal statement by the provincial government November 30. “Energy prices are anticipated to remain supportive of activity”, said the statement on the provincial government’s website. “Producers are also expected to continue drilling at a solid pace ahead of TMX [Trans Mountain expansion pipeline] coming online in the second half of 2024”. However, nationally, refined petroleum products dropped 25.4 percent quarter-over-quarter in the July–September period. This drove the 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter decline in real gross domestic product, according to a bulletin update by Statistics Canada. Nonetheless, Alberta’s “[i]ncomes for the non-financial sector in the third quarter were boosted by higher prices for crude oil and refined petroleum products”, the statistics agency stated. For the July–September 2023 quarter, among the country’s biggest oil and gas companies, Cenovus Inc. had reported CAD 1.03 billion ($762.82 million) in capex, up two percent against the prior quarter and 18 percent against the corresponding period a year ago. The capex “was primarily directed towards sustaining production in the Oil Sands segment, drilling, completion, tie-in, and infrastructure projects in the Conventional business as well as refining reliability initiatives in the U.S. Manufacturing segment”, the company said in its quarterly report November 2. Cenovus logged CAD 1.86 billion ($1.38 billion) in net profit and CAD 17.31 billion ($12.82 billion) in revenue, according to the company’s quarterly report November 2. Imperial Oil Ltd. posted CAD 387 million ($286.61 million) in capex for the third quarter of 2023, down 21.5 percent against the prior quarter and five percent compared to the corresponding quarter 2022. Upstream accounted for most of its latest quarterly capex. Imperial Oil recorded CAD 1.6 billion ($1.18 billion) in net income and CAD 13.92 billion ($10.31 billion) in revenue, according to its earnings announcement October 27. Suncor Energy Inc. meanwhile had CAD 1.51 billion ($1.12 billion) in capex for the third quarter of 2023, down 2.51 percent from the prior quarter but up 13.17 percent from the corresponding quarter 2022. It attributed its third quarter 2023 expenses primarily to “a share-based compensation expense in the current quarter compared to a recovery in the prior year quarter, increased operating expenses associated with the company’s additional working interest in Fort Hills that was acquired in the first quarter of 2023, and increased mining activity at the company’s mines”, as stated in its quarterly report November 8.
Mexico Pacific Nears Sold-Out Capacity for Saguaro LNG with Woodside SPA - Woodside is further diversifying its LNG portfolio with more U.S.-sourced gas from a new supply agreement with Mexico Pacific Ltd. (MPL), tallying another major offtaker for the proposed Mexican terminal. Woodside has inked a 20-year, 1.3 million metric ton/year (mmty) sales and purchase agreement (SPA) for offtake from the Saguaro Energia LNG terminal on a free-on-board basis. Prices are to be linked to U.S. indexes. MPL President and Chief Commercial Officer Sarah Bairstow said Woodside’s addition as a foundational offtaker for Saguaro’s third train further validates “the value of West Coast Mexican LNG.
Mexico Pacific LNG Project Could Have Positive Impacts on Overall Natural Gas Market - Column - In the last decade, monumental infrastructure projects in Mexico have changed the landscape of the natural gas industry. The Ramones system bringing in U.S. gas was designed by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to solve the problem of critical alerts in central Mexico. As soon as its operation began, this system, which operated in coordination with the national pipeline system, became the main gas injection point throughout the country. Its 2 Bcf/d of transport capacity provided security of supply at the same time that Pemex’s production fell dramatically.
Essequibo: Venezuelans approve takeover of oil-rich region of Guyana in referendum — Venezuelans voted by a wide margin Sunday to approve the takeover of an oil-rich region in neighboring Guyana – the latest escalation in a long-running territorial dispute between the two countries, fueled by the recent discovery of vast offshore energy resources. The area in question, the densely forested Essequibo region, amounts to about two-thirds of Guyana’s national territory and is roughly the size of Florida. Sunday’s largely symbolic referendum asked voters if they agreed with creating a Venezuelan state in the Essequibo region, providing its population with Venezuelan citizenship and “incorporating that state into the map of Venezuelan territory.” In a news conference announcing preliminary results from the first tranche of counted votes, the Venezuelan National Electoral Council said voters chose “yes” more than 95% of the time on each of five questions on the ballot. It is unclear what steps Venezuela’s government would take to enforce its claim, however. Venezuela has long claimed the land, which it argues was within its borders during the Spanish colonial period. It dismisses an 1899 ruling by international arbitrators that set the current boundaries when Guyana was still a British colony, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has cast the referendum in anti-imperialist sentiment on social media. Guyana has called the move a step towards annexation and an “existential threat.” Last week, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali visited troops in Essequibo and dramatically hoisted a Guyanese flag on a mountain overlooking the border with Venezuela. The International Court of Justice, based in The Hague, ruled before the vote that “Venezuela shall refrain from taking any action which would modify the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute.” It plans to hold a trial in the spring on the issue, following years of review and decades of failed negotiations. Venezuela does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction on the issue, however. What happens next The vote’s result was widely expected within Venezuela, although its practical implications are likely to be minimal, analysts say, with the creation of a Venezuelan state within the Essequibo a remote possibility. It’s unclear what steps the Venezuelan government would take to follow through on the result, and any attempt to assert a claim would certainly be met with international resistance. Still, the escalating rhetoric has prompted troop movements in the region and saber-rattling in both countries, drawing comparisons from Guyanese leaders to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many residents in the predominantly indigenous region are reportedly on edge.
Brazil gears up to become fourth largest oil producer - Brazil’s National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) reports that the country’s oil production is steadily increasing, projecting the country to become the world’s fourth largest oil producer, informs OilPrice. The country’s large reserves, particularly pre-salt reserves, coupled with a rise in exploration and drilling activities, underscore the potential for significant production expansion. Despite concerns over government intervention and taxation, foreign energy companies like TotalEnergies and Equinor continue to invest heavily in Brazil, signalling the country’s strong position in the global oil industry. Data from Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP – Portuguese initials), shows that for April 2023, the country pumped an average of 3.1 million barrels of oil per day. That number is almost 1% higher than a month earlier and 5% greater year over year. Total hydrocarbon output for April 2023 amounted to just over 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day which was 1.1% higher month over month and 4.4% greater than a year earlier. That growth indicates Brazil possesses the potential to become the world’s largest oil producer, especially when it is anticipated the country 2023 will add 300,000 barrels per day, taking production to 3.4 million barrels daily by the end of the year. During 2022, Brazil was ranked ninth globally by oil production, ahead of Kuwait and behind Iran, lifting an average of just over 3 million barrels per day. Suppose Latin America’s largest economy is to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. Another key aspect that will support those plans is Brazil’s copious hydrocarbon reserves. According to the ANP, at the end of 2022, Latin America’s largest oil producer held proven or 1P petroleum reserves totaling 14.9 billion barrels, of which 77% were categorized as pre-salt. There are also 21.9 billion barrels of proven and possible or 2P reserves and 27 billion barrels of 3P reserves, known as proven possible and probable reserves. This illustrates that Brazil possesses considerable hydrocarbon potential and the reserves required to support a significant increase in oil production. Those reserves will keep growing as exploration and development drilling gains momentum, with the Baker Hughes International Rig Count showing 17 active rigs at the end of May 2023 compared to 11 a year earlier.
Brazil to join OPEC+ in 2024, seeks oil market stability: minister | S&P Global Commodity Insights --- Brazil will join the OPEC+ alliance from January 2024, in a move that adds South America's largest oil producer to the group's market influence, OPEC confirmed in a statement Nov. 30. "This is a historic moment for Brazil and the energy industry and we look forward to joining this distinguished group," Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira de Oliveira said in an speech to OPEC+ ministers during a virtual meeting on Nov. 30. "The OPEC+ agreement has effectively protected the stability of oil markets." Silveira didn't provide details on Brazil's membership, or whether it would participate in quotas. However, delegates earlier told S&P Global Commodity Insights that the country -- which produces mostly medium-sweet crude from its offshore basins -- isn't expected to participate in cuts. "Brazil benefits significantly from the stability of oil and energy markets," Silveira said in reference to the role played by OPEC+. The addition of Brazil to the 10 existing OPEC+ allies led by Russia is a major coup for the cartel, which has struggled to reach consensus on cuts to arrest weak oil prices. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed benchmark Dated Brent crude at $82.28/b on Nov. 29. Brazil currently produces around 3.2 million b/d of crude and is a major supplier to China, according to S&P Global data. In October, a high-level OPEC delegation led by Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais met with Silveira in Brasilia. Also in attendance was Jean Paul Prates, CEO of state-controlled oil giant Petrobras. The company committed earlier this month to increasing investment spending by 31% to $102 billion through to 2028. Under its latest plans, approved by the board of directors, Petrobras expects to pump 2.8 million b/d of oil equivalent in 2024 and 2025, gradually rising to 3.0 million boe/d in 2026 and 3.1 million boe/d in 2027. Oil and natural gas production will peak at 3.2 million boe/d in 2028.
LNG Imports Continue Flowing Into Europe at High Rates Despite Bearish Fundamentals - High inventories, a bearish demand outlook and forecasts of a mild winter have failed to limit European LNG imports. Although Kpler data shows the continent’s total liquefied natural gas intake year-to-date has fallen to 113.68 million tons (Mt) from 114.95 Mt, LNG is still expected to make up around 43% of the European Union’s total gas imports this year, up from 36% in 2022 and 26% in 2021, according to ING Research. Moreover, Kpler data that includes Turkey also show that Europe has steadily increased imports of the super-chilled fuel since the heating season started in October. The continent took in 10.27 Mt that month and 10.55 Mt in November. Energy Aspects’ James Waddell, head of European Gas and Global LNG, told NGI that unless there’s extreme cold, weak...
OMV Petrom and Vulcangas to build LNG, CNG stations in Romania - Romania’s energy firm OMV Petrom is teaming up with a unit of Italy’s Vulcangas to build liquefied and compressed natural gas filling stations in Romania. According to a statement by OMV Petrom, the firm and Vulcangas Romania entered into a partnership and plan to launch the first station in 2025 at a Petrom filling station located in Chitila Sat, Ilfov County. This station will supply light and heavy transportation vehicles. Also, other future filling stations will be installed depending on the evolution of LNG and CNG demand in Romania, it said. Radu Caprau, member of the OMV Petrom executive board, said that through this partnership, “we continue to diversify our mobility offer for medium and long-distance freight transport, by supporting the growth of the LNG and CNG market.” “Natural gas can be a viable option for the transition to cleaner transportation,” Caprau said. The company in which Austria’s OMV holds a 51.2 percent stake claims LNG/CNG freight transportation generates about 15 percent less CO2 emissions, 50 percent less SOx emissions and almost no heavy particulate emissions. A truck fueled by LNG/CNG can benefit from an autonomy of up to 1,600 kilometers, it said.
Net zero policy for new gas projects abandoned after industry objected | Australia news - The Northern Territory government walked away from a proposal to set net zero emissions requirements for new onshore gas developments after the industry objected, government documents show. Letters and emails released to Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws show the Fyles government quietly consulted the gas industry in late 2022 about a plan to meet the key climate recommendation from a scientific inquiry into fracking. Other key stakeholders and the public do not appear to have been consulted about the proposal. “It isn’t every day that we obtain this level of insight into the direct influence that the fossil fuel sector has on the climate policies of Australian governments,” said Harriet Kater, special adviser at the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility. “Unfortunately, this has a strong sense of being the tip of the iceberg. “The unchecked influence of the fossil fuel sector on policymakers is a primary reason that emissions continue to rise on a trajectory that is catastrophic for human safety.” Communities in the NT are on the frontline of a proposed massive expansion of the gas industry. That expansion is advancing despite science and energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency, warning there can be no more exploitation of new oil, gas and coalfields if the world is to limit global heating to 1.5C. By the middle of the century, the number of days above 35C is projected to be at least double in many places across the territory. Research published this year projected Darwin could become too hot to live in within 50 years if the planet keeps warming at current rates. In May this year, the NT government gave the greenlight for companies to apply for approval to commence gas production in the Beetaloo basin between Katherine and Tennant Creek. The government said it was satisfied it had met a commitment to deliver on all 135 recommendations of a territory-wide scientific inquiry into fracking. That included the key climate commitment – recommendation 9.8 – that the NT and federal governments would “seek to ensure” that new onshore gas projects in the NT did not cause a net increase in Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Guardian Australia has previously revealed that the NT government knew it could not meet this recommendation and sought the federal government’s help in September 2022. New documents show that during that same month it was also contacting gas companies with a proposal to partially meet this commitment by regulating the upstream – or direct – emissions from production activities for gas projects. According to correspondence released by the NT environment department, the former environment and climate change minister Lauren Moss notified gas companies that the government had given “in-principle support to a policy approach that would require interest holders to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions for all upstream onshore shale gas production activities in the Territory”. Senior bureaucrats wrote to companies including Santos, Inpex, Empire Energy, Hancock Prospecting and Top End Energy, seeking their feedback on the idea by late October 2022 before a submission was put to cabinet. The companies raised strong objections. Empire Energy, one of the operators in the Beetaloo basin, wrote in an 18 October email to the department it had “numerous, serious concerns regarding the NT government’s proposed approach to implementation of recommendation 9.8”. Inpex, which operates a liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing facility on Darwin harbour, wrote in a 25 October letter to Moss about “a number of concerns”. These included that the policy could “increase cost and complexity for proponents, without necessarily achieving improved outcomes”, and that the NT government’s introduction of a specific net zero requirement for shale gas production might set a “potential precedent” that could be applied more broadly to other industries and activities. One email shows Santos executives met with senior NT bureaucrats to discuss the proposal on 28 October. Later, in a five-page letter dated 30 November, the company stated its “strong belief that the most effective and efficient way to Australia and the NT achieving their targets of net zero emissions by 2050 is to allow industry to find the best ways to decarbonise their businesses”.
The bill that could stop fracking at Beetaloo Basin -- For the uninitiated, the words “water trigger” might be associated with a garden hose attachment, or maybe a kid’s Super Soaker toy. But it’s actually a powerful weapon with which the federal government could avert environmental disaster. Should she choose to act on changes to environmental law forced on her by the Greens this week, Environment and Water Minister Tanya Plibersek could, for a start, put paid to plans to extract enormous quantities of gas from the Beetaloo Basin, a 28,000 square kilometre expanse of semi-arid land about 500 kilometres south-east of Darwin. And we mean enormous – far bigger than any current project on Western Australia’s North West Shelf. The bumf from the Northern Territory government says the basin’s gas reserves “are equivalent to more than 1000 times the current annual domestic consumption in Australia, or the amount of energy required to drive a car 483 million kilometres”. It also claims development of the Beetaloo would produce 17,000 jobs by 2040 and bring a $17 billion boost to the economy. There is one glaringly obvious problem. Exploiting those reserves also would pump massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. By the calculation of physicist and climate scientist Professor Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, just getting the gas out of the ground and processing it in Darwin would produce up to 49 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent a year and increase Australia’s total domestic emissions by about 11 per cent. That is just half of the emissions. Once it is burnt, Hare calculates that emissions will be as much as 1.2 billion tonnes over 25 years. As readers by now will be well aware, the International Energy Agency warned in 2021 that if the world was to have any hope of reaching its goals of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees, it had to immediately stop opening new fossil fuel projects. Mike Seccombe Labor has wrested support for its legislation to save the Murray–Darling Basin with concessions to the Greens and independent senators, but the plan’s heavy reliance on water buybacks will do little to appease farmers and state governments. But the territory government is pressing ahead and the former federal government allocated about $200 million in subsidies and infrastructure spending to accelerate development. At time of writing, the current federal government was still prevaricating over whether or not it would join the large and growing number of nations at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai advocating a phase-out of all fossil fuel extraction. Bottom line, Beetaloo and the various other planned major gas projects are being developed in defiance of the science that suggests they are a threat on a world scale. Moreover, the gas in the Beetaloo is hard to get at. It’s not as if there is a big underground void filled with gas that can be easily tapped. It is tightly bound in the rock, which necessitates mining by an unconventional method, called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. This involves injecting liquid – primarily water, mixed with sand and chemicals – at high pressure into the gas-bearing strata, which opens up fissures in the rock for extracting the gas (or oil).
Japan Secures LNG Cargoes for Country’s First Strategic Natural Gas Reserve - Jera Co. Inc., Japan’s largest power producer, has secured three LNG cargoes to ensure winter demand is met through February 2024 in a purchase made as part of the government’s plan for a strategic reserve of the super-chilled fuel. Previously, only commercial stocks of liquefied natural gas were held in Japan. Now, like the country’s strategic oil reserves, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s (METI) “Strategic LNG Buffer” would keep gas stocks in government-owned and private facilities. “This buffer plan is sensible,” said Poten & Partners’ Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence.
Asia spot LNG prices fall to 7-week low on tepid demand, improved supply -- Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell this week to a 7-week low despite cold weather, as demand remains muted and global supply conditions ease after recent maintenance and geopolitical tensions. The average LNG price for January delivery into north-east Asia LNG-AS fell 6% to $15.7 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the lowest since mid-October, industry sources estimated. “Rates in Asia and notably Europe continue to slide. Demand has remained weak across all players,” said Toby Copson, head of energy, APAC, at commodities broker Marex. “It’s clear weather and industrial demand hasn’t brought any urgent covering going in to winter which doesn’t set a good precedent for a bullish outlook,” Copson added. Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus said that despite low overnight temperatures, end-users across northeast Asia have largely stayed away from the spot market, relying instead on term supply or spot cargoes secured before winter, aided in part by daytime temperatures that have held closer to seasonal norms or even above them. Good added gas-fired generation is being squeezed out of the generation mix by an increase in nuclear output. Meanwhile, global supply is improving after the end of maintenance at a Qatargas plant and at Australia’s Prelude facility. This is in addition to the return of Egypt’s LNG exports after a halt in the immediate period following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza, according to Alex Froley, LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS. “The boosts from Qatar, Egypt and Australia offer improved supply potential over coming weeks. That has helped pull near-term prices lower, despite the onset of colder weather in Europe that has increased the draw-down of underground storage reserves and helped use up the queue of floating storage cargoes that had earlier been building up around European shores,” Froley said. While European gas storage levels have started to fall, they are still at record highs for this time of the year, at around 95.9% full, reducing the risk of the region running short over winter as a whole, Froley added. Argus’ Good said the sendout from European LNG terminals into the grid has been quick, in response to the higher consumption being driven by the ongoing cold weather. “But cargo availability in the wider Atlantic basin remains high, with only a few firms facing an incentive to redirect loadings away from Europe and to northeast Asia instead,” Good said. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily northwest Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in January on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.46/mmBtu on Nov. 30, a $0.87/mmBtu discount to the January gas price at the Dutch TTF hub. “Northwest Europe’s LNG prices were pressured over the week shedding almost 13%, or $1.828/mmBtu, since Nov. 23 to near 2 -month lows,” said Karim El Afany, managing editor of S&P’s Atlantic LNG. Argus assessed the price at $12.70/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $12.689/mmBtu.
Russian crude exports to India slump amid soaring freight costs, currency dispute --Russia’s crude oil exports to India collapsed to below 1 million b/d for the first time in 13 months during November, according to preliminary tanker tracking data, amid rising freight rates, tighter sanctions compliance and a reported dispute over rupee payments for Moscow’s crude from its biggest buyer. India overtook China to become Russia’s biggest buyer of seaborne crude last year with flows peaking at almost 2 million b/d in May as Indian refiners snapped up discounted Russian oil. However, Russia’s monthly exports to India have averaged just 892,000 b/d in November, a 47% slide on the month and down from an average of 1.53 million b/d this year, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. The sharply lower flows to India come amid shrinking discounts for Russian crude arriving at Indian ports as Russia sources more non-G7 shipping capacity to sidestep the G7’s $60/b price cap on its exports and as values for medium sour crudes continue to strengthen globally on the back of OPEC+ production cuts. Although Urals FOB values have weakened against Dated Brent recently, the discount for cargoes arriving on India’s west coast remains at $4.10/b, the tightest differential since Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, began evaluating the assessment in January. The lump sum value for 100,000 mt cargoes from both the Baltics and Black Sea bound for India has now jumped to between $8.7 million and $9.25 million, according to sources familiar with the subject. This compares with around $4.2 million for the same journey in early October. Speaking in October, the chairperson for Indian Oil Corp. said the state-run refining company is shifting to other crude sources to feed its refineries as the steep discounts for Russian crude available over the past year and half have dwindled. Freight costs initially increased on the back of a tight tonnage list and low availability of dirty tankers, and recent moves by the US and the UK to crack down on sanctions busting in the shipping sector and EU plans to tighten compliance rules for transporting crude have further raised freight costs, traders said. Some major tanker operators that need to comply with the G7 price cap regime have exited the Russian trade, with the West focus on tightening enforcement. Three top Greek tanker operators have stopped transporting Russian oil in recent weeks to avoid sanctions now being imposed on some shipping companies carrying Russian oil, Reuters reported Nov. 24, citing unnamed traders and data.
Russia pledges more oil data to ship trackers to soothe OPEC+ - The Hindu -Russia has pledged to disclose more data about the volume of its fuel refining and exports after OPEC+ asked Moscow for more transparency on classified fuel shipments from the many export points across the vast country, sources at OPEC+ and ship-tracking firms told Reuters. Russia is the only member of OPEC+ which contributes to export cuts rather than production cuts as part of its participation in the group's agreement to curb supplies. Market analysts have struggled to verify the exact volumes of cuts achieved by Moscow. Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin made the offer to provide more information last week in a call with six ship-tracking consultancies and price-reporting agencies tasked by OPEC+ to work with Moscow on the issue, three sources told Reuters. Mr. Sorokin told the firms - S&P Global Platts, Argus Media, Energy Intelligence, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad and Kpler – Moscow would provide more data on crude production, inventories and refinery fuel output to give a more comprehensive picture of its compliance, according to the sources, one of whom attended the meeting.
Proposed 5% biogas blending with natural gas can cut LNG imports worth USD 1.17 bn: IBA - The proposed 5 per cent blending of biogas with natural gas supplies in the country can cut LNG imports worth USD 1.17 billion annually, says a study by the Indian Biogas Association (IBA). The study comes against the backdrop of the government's recent mandate to blend one per cent biogas with piped natural gas (PNG) supplies in the country from April 1, 2025 under the compressed biogas blending obligation (CBO) scheme. The biogas blending is proposed to be further increased to 5 per cent by fiscal year 2028-29. According to the study, this blending initiative gels well with the government's macro-level move to make India a gas-based economy, with a target to increase the current share of gas in the energy mix from 6 per cent currently to 15 per cent by 2030. The IBA estimates show that 5 per cent blending of biogas with natural gas can reduce LNG imports worth USD 1.17 billion. This can also bring down per capita CO2 emissions by two per cent, benchmarked to the 2019 figure, which was 1.9 metric tonne of CO2 per person in India. Additionally, the body says preventing organic waste going to landfills can bring innumerable benefits.
CPCL Denies Leakage At Refinery In Chennai As Oil Spill Hits Waterlogged Areas After Cyclone Michaung -- The Chennai Petrochemicals Corporation Limited (CPCL) on Thursday denied claims floating around on social media that leaks in pipelines at its refinery in Chennai's Manali area are behind a crude oil spill in the city, which is reeling under waterlogging in the aftermath of Cyclone Michaung. The company also said it was investigating the oil spill. "There is no pipeline leak at CPCL Manali Refinery," the public sector undertaking (PSU) said in a statement issued via social media platform X (formerly Twitter). The clarification came after several social media users blamed CPCL following the emergence of videos that showed films of oil floating on the surface of flood water in Chennai's Ennore area.
Russia takes control of Iraq’s biggest oil discovery for 20 years - - Preliminary estimates suggested that Iraq’s Eridu oil field holds between 7-10 billion barrels of reserves. Senior Russian oil industry sources spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.com said the true figure may well be 50 percent more than the higher figure of that band. In either event, the Eridu field – part of Iraq’s Block 10 exploration and development region – is the biggest oil find in Iraq in the last 20 years, and Russia wants to control all of it, alongside its chief geopolitical ally, China. The approval last week by Iraq’s Oil Ministry for Inpex – the major oil company of key U.S. ally Japan – to sell its 40 percent stake in the Block 10 region that contains the huge Eridu discovery leaves the way clear for Lukoil to take total control of the entire oil-rich area. Block 10 lies in the southeast of Iraq, approximately 120 km west of the key oil export route from Basra, and just south of the huge oil fields in and around Nassirya. Back in 2021 – at least before the U.S. formally withdrew from Iraq by ending its ‘combat mission’ there at the end of December – it was clear that Washington knew what Russia and China were up to long term in the country, and how the U.S. was being manipulated by Iraq. In a moment of insight, the then-U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Dana Stroul, said: “It’s […] clear that certain countries and partners would want to hedge and test what more they might be able to get from the United States by testing the waters of deeper co-operation with the Chinese or the Russians, particularly in the security and military space.” This view could equally have been aimed, not just at Iraq, but also at most other countries in the Middle East at that time – most notably Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. That said, this profound insight had no effect on Washington at that point, and posed no impediment at all to either Russia or China’s continued drive to entirely push the U.S. out of the Middle East, as analysed in depth in in my new book on the new global oil market order. Multiple field exploration and development deals, plus countless lower-profile ‘contract-only’ agreements, with Russian and Chinese firms allow the two countries plenty of scope to leverage these out into a harder geopolitical presence across the country, including into the very fabric of its key infrastructure. These plans, in turn, link into corollary plans by Russia and China to turn the entire southeast region of Iraq – that culminates with the major oil export hub of Basra – into a region criss-crossed by Russian- and Chinese-controlled oil and gas fields and transportation hubs.
Iraq announces additional oil output cut for Q1 2024 -Iraq will voluntarily cut oil production by 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) between January and March 2024, the country’s oil ministry said in a statement. The measure was taken in coordination with OPEC+ and its allies to stabilize the global oil market, it added. The ministry statement came hours after OPEC+ oil producers on Thursday agreed to voluntary output cuts of about 2 million bpd for early next year to bolster the market. On April 2, the ministry said Iraq would voluntarily cut oil production by 211,000 bpd from May until the end of this year. Oil prices rose after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February last year, benefiting oil-exporting countries, including Iraq. However, oil prices declined in the past few months due to fears of lower demand in global markets. Iraq’s economy relies heavily on crude oil exports, which account for more than 90 percent of its revenues.
Angola protests to OPEC over its lower oil output quota --Angola has sent a note of protest to OPEC over a decision by the wider OPEC+ oil producer group to reduce the country’s oil output quota for 2024, the office of Angola’s oil minister said in a statement. OPEC+ lowered Angola’s oil output target for 2024 at a meeting on Thursday to 1.11 million barrels per day. This followed a review by outside analysts to verify production figures for Nigeria, Angola and Congo. “Because the decision was not taken unanimously and was against Angola’s position, during the meeting we reiterated our proposal for a quota of 1,180,000 barrels of crude oil per day for 2024 and afterwards a note of protest was sent to the OPEC Secretariat,” the statement said. OPEC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Disagreements over African output quotas was cited by OPEC+ sources as a reason why it postponed a meeting that was originally scheduled for Nov. 26 until Thursday. Angola’s OPEC Governor Estevao Pedro was quoted on Thursday by Bloomberg as saying the country was unhappy with its 2024 target and did not plan to stick to it. He did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on Friday.
OPEC oil output drops in November, in first fall since July: survey(Reuters) — OPEC oil output fell in November in the first monthly drop since July, a Reuters survey found, as a result of lower shipments by Nigeria and Iraq as well as ongoing market-supporting cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.81 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down by 90,000 bpd from October, the survey on Wednesday found. Production had risen in the three months to October.
The Oil Market Continued to Sell Off on Monday Posting a Third Consecutive Day of Losses -The oil market continued to sell off on Monday posting a third consecutive day of losses. The market remained under pressure on concerns over slowing demand and some skepticism that OPEC+ output cuts will amount to actual cuts. The cuts are voluntary, raising doubts about whether or not producers would fully implement them and traders are also unsure about how the cuts would be measured. The crude market posted a high of $75.03 in overnight trading and continued to trend lower and posted a low of $72.63 by mid-morning. The market retraced some of its losses and traded back over the $74.50 level on comments made by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ oil production cuts can “absolutely” continue past the first quarter if needed. The market however, erased those gains and traded back to the $73.00 level ahead of the close. The January WTI contract settled down $1.03 at $73.04 and the February Brent contract settled down 85 cents at $78.03. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 18 points at $2.6597 and the RB market settling up 1.31 cents at $2.1342. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ oil production cuts can “absolutely” continue past the first quarter if needed, as he pledged the cuts would be delivered in full. He said the supply reductions of more than 2 million bpd will only be withdrawn after consideration of market conditions and using a “phased-in approach.”U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary, David Turk, said the U.S. is taking advantage of low oil prices and refilling the SPR as much as it can. However, he said the amount is limited by physical constraints in the caverns. He said the Biden administration may not be able to take full advantage of the recent fall in oil prices. He said physical constraints and maintenance at the network of underground caverns along the U.S. Gulf Coast have been limiting the amount the Energy Department can purchase to about 3 million barrels a month. The more than 700 million barrel oil reserve currently stands at about 350 million barrels, following the Biden administration’s 180 million barrel withdrawal. So far efforts to refill the reserve have been slow, with two of the reserve’s sites in Texas and Louisiana offline for maintenance and a $1.4 billion modernization program, funded through oil sales, behind schedule and over budget. The Energy Department, which solicited a request for 3 million more barrels for the reserve, said it has “secured” 12 million barrels for the reserve, including the direct purchase of 9 million barrels and the return of 4 million barrels from oil companies.Saudi Aramco's Chief Executive, Amin Nasser, told a panel on the sidelines of the COP28 climate summit in the UAE that that all the renewable energy coming to market is still not enough to handle additional demand. He added that more investment in the oil and gas sector is still needed.The United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, said that investments in hydrocarbons were necessary to avoid a “high pricing environment” during the green transition.OPEC Secretary General, Haitham al-Ghais, said that to say that oil has to stay under the ground will not lead to energy transition but to energy chaos. He said "We don't feel that vilifying (the) industry is a constructive approach."
Brent Futures Slide below $78 After Saudi Aramco Cut OSPs -- Erasing morning gains, oil futures fell again on Tuesday after Saudi Aramco lowered its official selling oil prices for January loadings to the key Asian market for the first time in seven months, further bolstering the view that market fundamentals are softening heading into the first quarter 2024. Saudi state-owned giant Aramco sliced the price of its flagship Arab Light crude shipped to Asia by $0.50 bbl for the month of January to $3.50 bbl over Platts Dubai/Oman basket. Aramco further reduced official selling prices for Northwest Europe, down a sizable $2 bbl compared to December loadings against ICE Brent futures. U.S. Gulf Coast buyers saw a more modest reduction of $0.30 bbl to $7.15 bbl over Argus Sour Crude Index. The price cuts follow another extension of Saudi voluntary production cuts of 1 million bpd into the first three months of next year. The announcement was made in conjunction with voluntary reductions of 1.2 million bpd from the rest of the OPEC+ alliance. Traders mostly shrugged at supportive comments from Saudi and Russian officials this week who attempted to reassure markets that OPEC+ will deliver on the pledged curtailments. Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman further added that those cuts "could be absolutely extended beyond the first quarter 2024." Also on Tuesday, oil traders positioned ahead of the U.S. inventory report to be released by the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 PM ET followed by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Wednesday morning. Tuesday's macroeconomic data showed lopsided growth at the start of the fourth quarter, with the number of new job openings in the United States having dropped sharply in October, while business conditions in the service industry modestly improved. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey revealed 8.7 million new jobs were available for the month of October -- the lowest in two years, as employers readjusted demand for available labor with a slowing economy. On the other hand, the economy's growth engine -- the services sector -- reported a modest uptick in November, with the headline index in business conditions moving further from contraction territory, while prices eased, and the new orders index surged. "Things look good for the sector right now with some new opportunity especially moving into the first quarter 2024," said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management. At settlement, NYMEX January West Texas Intermediate futures declined $0.72 to $72.32 per bbl, while Brent February dropped back $0.83 to $77.20 per bbl. NYMEX ULSD futures for January delivery softened $0.0186 to settle at $2.6411 per gallon, while RBOB futures dropped back to $2.1103 per gallon, down $0.0239.
WTI Extends Losses To 5-Month Lows Despite Crude Draw, Production Decline - Oil prices extended their recent plunge (to five-month lows) overnight following across-the-board inventory builds reported by API (especially at the Cushing hub). This morning's weak ADP report added more selling pressure (demand anxiety building on China concerns) as supply soars with US oil exports near record highs amid record high domestic crude production flooding the market, overshadowing Saudi Arabia’s pledges that OPEC+ will deliver on its planned production cuts.Non-OPEC countries are driving oil production growth, with the US, Brazil and Guyana contributing 1.4 million barrels per day, 0.43 million b/d and 0.2 million b/d, respectively. In 2024, the increase in non-OPEC production is likely to be in the range of 2 million b/d, according to ANZ Bank. API
- Crude +594k (-1.00mm exp)
- Cushing +4.28mm - biggest build since April 2020
- Gasoline +2.83mm (+700k exp)
- Distillates +890k (+1.00mm exp)
DOE
- Crude -4.63mm (-1.00mm exp) - biggest draw in 3 months
- Cushing +1.83mm
- Gasoline +5.42mm (+700k exp)
- Distillates +1.27mm (+1.00mm exp)
Flipping the script on API's data, the official DOE data shows a large 4.6mm barrel crude draw - the biggest in 3 months. Cushing stocks increased for the seventh straight week and products also saw builds... This occurred amid a massive negative 'adjustment'... For the second week in a row, the Biden admin added crude to the SPR (+330k barrels)... Cushing stocks rose to their highest since August... US Crude production actually declined by 100k b/d - the first weekly drop since July...
Oil Falls to 5-month Low on Supply Overhang, Demand Softness -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures accelerated a selloff into the afternoon session Wednesday following inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing total refined product stockpiles climbed by a sizable 8 million bbl last week as domestic refineries emerge from fall maintenance while fuel demand is weak. Wednesday's inventory report was mixed-to-bearish, showing a much larger-than-expected build in gasoline and distillate stockpiles despite a slower-than-usual return of refining utilization following a heavy turnaround season this fall. Domestic refiners processed 16.2 million bpd of crude oil during the week-ended Dec. 1, which was 179,000 bpd more than the previous week's average but still 384,000 bpd below the 2022 processing rate. On the week, refiners raised run rates 0.7% to 90.5% of capacity compared to a 95.5% utilization rate during the same week a year ago. EIA figures showed gasoline inventories jumped 5.4 million bbl in the reviewed week to 223.6 million bbl, some 1% below the seasonal five-year average. Analysts mostly expected a 700,000-bbl increase. Distillate stockpiles rose 1.3 million bbl from the previous week to 112 million bbl and are now 13% below the five-year average. Jet fuel stocks rose 1.3 million bbl. Supporting elements in Wednesday's inventory report could be found in the crude complex where commercial stockpiles dropped by a much larger-than-expected 4.6 million bbl as oil producers scaled back output by 100,000 bpd from a record-high 13.2 million bpd. Oil stored at the Cushing tank farm in Oklahoma, the delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate contract on NYMEX, rose 1.8 million bbl to 29.6 million bbl. Wednesday's move lower in the oil complex follows Saudi Arabia's announcement to cut official selling prices for its flagship Arab Light crude for all key markets in January, underscoring weak demand fundamentals globally. Saudi Aramco sliced the price of Arab Light crude for January loadings to Asia by $0.50 bbl to $3.50 bbl over Platts Dubai/Oman average. Aramco further reduced official selling prices for Northwest Europe, down a sizable $2 bbl compared to December loadings against ICE Brent futures. U.S. Gulf Coast buyers saw a more modest reduction of $0.30 bbl to $7.15 bbl over Argus Sour Crude Index. The price cuts follow another extension of Saudi voluntary production cuts of 1 million bpd into the first three months of next year. The announcement was made in conjunction with voluntary reductions of 1.2 million bpd from seven other participants of the 24-country OPEC+ alliance. At settlement, NYMEX January WTI futures declined $2.96 to $69.38 per bbl, while Brent February dropped back $2.90 to $74.30 per bbl. NYMEX ULSD futures for January delivery fell $0.0649 to $2.5762 per gallon, while RBOB futures declined to $2.0302 per gallon, down $0.0801.
The Crude Market on Thursday Traded Lower After it Retraced Some of its Recent Sharp Losses - The crude market on Thursday traded lower after it retraced some of its recent sharp losses. The market opened 10 cents lower at $69.28 before it rebounded and gradually traded to a high of $70.48 early in the morning. It later erased all of its earlier gains and breached its previous low of $69.11 as it extended its losses 58 cents to a low of $68.80 in afternoon trading. The prospects of weak economic growth over the next few quarters, after almost two years of interest rate increases by most of the world’s central banks, are weighing on the crude market. The market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The January WTI contract ended lower for the sixth consecutive session, down 4 cents at $69.34, its lowest settlement since June 27th. The February Brent contract also settled lower for the sixth consecutive session, down 25 cents at $74.05, its lowest settlement since June 28th. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.7 cents at $2.5492 and the RB market settling down 2.9 cents at $2.0012. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called for all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on oil output cuts, saying they were for the good of producers and the broader global economy. Hours after the two leaders’ meeting, the Kremlin released a joint statement detailing wide-ranging talks between them on oil, OPEC+, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and even Iran's nuclear program. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed OPEC+ cooperation on oil markets and the Middle East situation during talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said "The parties agree that our countries bear a great responsibility for interaction in order to maintain the international energy market at the proper level, in a stable, predictable state." The Kremlin said "They stressed the importance of continuing this cooperation, and the need for all participating countries to join to the OPEC+ agreement, in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy." Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani, said Iraq renews its support of the OPEC+ agreement and its commitments to the voluntary output cut. He said Iraq’s decision comes within the framework of joint efforts to achieve oil market balance and stability. According to ANZ Research commodity strategists, the oil market has been overly bearish following the OPEC+ output cuts. They said the deal should be seen as a success even though the cuts are voluntary and added that a surprise unwinding of the additional cuts in the second quarter of next year can’t be ruled out.” They said market sentiment is unlikely to change until there is material evidence of the cuts. According to LSEG tracking, diesel arrivals in Europe in November reached 4.54 million metric tons, down from 4.62 million tons in October. LSEG analyst Raj Rajendran, said Brazil overtook Turkey as the biggest buyer of Russian diesel loaded in November, increasing to a record near 1 million tons.
Oil Gains on Improved Sentiment After Robust Jobs Report - West Texas Intermediate futures settled Friday's session 2.5% higher after a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report diminished the outlook for recession early next year but complicated the outlook for Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation back to its 2% target in a timely manner. U.S. labor market delivered yet another surprise to the upside in November, adding 199,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell back to a four-month low 3.7%, showed data released Friday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statics. The labor force participation rate increased to 62.8%, meaning more workers are entering the labor market towards the end of the year. What's notable is employment gains were spread out across different sectors of the economy, including healthcare, up 77,000 from the previous month, government, up 49,000, and leisure and hospitality, up 40,000 from October's 19,000 increase, which could signal a reacceleration of activity for the restaurant and travel industries. Equities gained, the U.S. dollar rallied, and WTI futures jumped back above $71 bbl as investors continued to assess the impact of the November employment report on the path of the federal funds rate next year as recession still seems to be far in the distance. This week's macroeconomic data could have suggested that the labor market is indeed losing its post-pandemic momentum, with new job openings falling to a 2-1/2 year low 8.733 million in October and employment in the private sector increased by a modest 103,000 as employers pulled back on new hiring in a "wait-and-see" approach towards the end of the year. At settlement, WTI futures for January delivery on NYMEX jumped $1.89 to $71.23 bbl after the contract plunged below $70 bbl on Wednesday for the first time since July. Gains for WTI come despite the U.S. dollar index rallying 0.46% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle the session at 103.983. The international crude benchmark Brent contract on ICE advanced $1.79 per bbl, pushing above $75 per bbl to settle at $75.84 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB January futures gained $0.0486 from a two-year low to settle at $2.0498 per gallon. NYMEX ULSD futures for January delivery increased $0.0318 to $2.5810 per gallon.
Israel expands its Hamas offensive into southern Gaza Strip — where civilians were once told to shelter - The Gaza Strip faced heavy bombardment for a third night since the seven-day pause in fighting ended on Friday, as the Israeli offensive shifts to the refugee-packed south of the enclave."We fought strongly and thoroughly in the northern Gaza Strip, and we are also doing it now in the southern Gaza Strip," Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told reservists on Sunday. That's the clearest signal so far that a much-feared Israeli offensive is set to envelop the south of the Gaza territories, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinian people have been forced to evacuate at Israel's instructions."Wherever there is a stronghold, the IDF operates. The Israeli forces are fighting terrorists face-to-face and killing them," IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari told reporters in a late Sunday press briefing.The Israeli military, whose stated goal is to dismantle Palestinian militant group Hamas and recover all hostages in its custody, said in an overnight Telegram update that it has struck roughly 200 Hamas targets, separately reporting it killed a senior Hamas commander, Haitham Khuwajari, head of the Shati Battalion. CNBC could not independently verify the reports."The goals in the northern section have almost been met," Brigadier-General Hisham Ibrahim told Israel's Army Radio, according to Reuters. "We are beginning to expand the ground maneuver to other parts of the Strip, with one goal: to topple the Hamas terrorist group."The IDF estimates that 137 hostages remain held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip in conditions unknown, following hostage swaps for the release of detained Palestinian civilians that were carried out during the cease-fire. Israel has separately begun to declare some of the missing as dead in captivity in an attempt to grant closure to grieving relatives, Reuters reported, saying that a three-person medical committee has been studying and cross-referencing video footage from the Oct. 7 terror attacks and the testimonies of released hostages.Those measures can help determine the status of a captive, even if no doctor has formally pronounced a death, said Hagar Mizrahi, the head of the panel and a health ministry official.In the Gaza Strip, Israeli attacks have coalesced around the southern city of Khan Younis, where Israel suspects that Hamas leadership is entrenched in a spiderweb of underground tunnels. The IDF has been urging Palestinian civilians to evacuate certain parts of the city, according to a Google-translated update from spokesperson for Arab media Avichay Adraee.The south of the Gaza enclave was previously considered safe territory for refugees and home to the strip's few remaining fully functional hospitals, following relentless bombardment in the north.Torrential fusillades now engulf Khan Younis, with the IDF claiming on Telegram that the Israeli air force struck over 50 targets locally on Dec. 2.
Kuwait calls for commitment to UN sea convention in Gaza siege -- Kuwait affirmed the need to commit to the articles of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, noting that Palestine is deprived of its right to benefit from the Gaza Sea, due to the Israeli occupation siege.Kuwait considers the convention as a UN constitution that determines the rights of all countries in seas and oceans, said diplomatic attaché at Kuwait's permanent delegation to the UN Hamad Al-Saeedi, during a UN General Assembly meeting on Oceans and the Law of the Sea, held in New York late Thursday.Palestine joined the convention in January 2015, however, the country is deprived of all sea rights by the Israeli occupation force, he noted.Al-Saeedi called on the UN to look into the issue in the near future, as the "Gaza humanitarian aid ship" will sail towards the strip, with the participation of 30 Kuwaiti charity societies, in cooperation with the Turkish Red Crescent. He hoped the ship would reach the Gaza Strip safely without harm by Israeli occupation aggression.
Iran sets up working group to stop fuel supply to Israel: deputy FM –--(Xinhua) -- Iran's Foreign Ministry has set up a special working group to explore ways to stop fuel supply to Israel, the official news agency IRNA reported on Sunday. At a meeting held in the Iranian capital Tehran to show support to Palestine, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani said the ministry formed the group to engage with Israel's fuel suppliers in order to stop Israel from bolstering its fuel reserves, according to the report. The move followed remarks made by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last month, in which he urged Muslim states to cease oil export to Israel, according to Bagheri. Iran has been a vocal opponent to Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip, which have killed 15,200 people in the Palestinian enclave. The Israeli attacks were triggered by Hamas's surprise attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, during which about 1,200 people were killed and about 240 people were held hostage
US Launches Airstrike in Iraq, At Least Five Militia Members Killed - -- A US airstrike killed at least five Iraqi militia members in Iraq’s northern Kirkuk province as the situation in the region is escalating following the resumption of Israel’s assault on Gaza.Iraqi security sources told AFP that the strike targeted a site used by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a state-sponsored coalition of mainly Shia militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS.According to Al Mayadeen, the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a relatively new umbrella group of Iraqi Shia militias, said five of its members were killed in the strike. The group has claimed many of the recent attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria, including two earlier on Sunday.A US official speaking on the condition of anonymity confirmed the strike in comments to AFP, but it has not been officially announced by the Pentagon. “A self-defense strike was carried out on a drone staging site,” the official claimed.US troops based in Iraq and Syria have been attacked over 70 times since October 17 in response to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. There was a period of relative calm during the truce between Israel and Hamas, but attacks ramped up again when the pause ended on Friday.The US has now launched several rounds of airstrikes in Syria and Iraq in response to attacks on US troops. The situation will likely continue to escalate as the Islamic Resistance of Iraq is vowing to intensify attacks until US forces are “expelled, humiliated, and defeated from” Iraq.
Pentagon Says US Warship and Commercial Vessels Came Under Attack in Red Sea - The Pentagon said Sunday that a US Navy destroyer and several commercial vessels came under attack in the Red Sea, The Associated Press reported.“We’re aware of reports regarding attacks on the USS Carney and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and will provide information as it becomes available,” a Pentagon official told AP.Later on Sunday, US Central Command said the USS Carney responded to attacks on three commercial vessels, the Unity Explorer, the Number Nine, and the Sophie II. CENTCOM said the Carney shot down a total of three drones, including two that were heading in its direction.CENTCOM blamed the attacks on Yemen’s Houthis, who announced that they attacked the Unity Explorer and Number Nine but did not mention firing on the USS Carney. CENTCOM also claimed the attacks were “fully enabled by Iran,” although there’s no evidence of Iranian involvement.“The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners,” CENTCOM said.The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have been targeting Israeli-linked ships and firing missiles and drones at Israel in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza, which resumed in full force on Friday. The Houthis also recently downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone that was flying near Yemen.
Oil pipeline in S. Yemen sabotaged by unidentified gunmen (Xinhua) -- A group of unidentified gunmen carried out an attack and sabotaged a crude oil pipeline in southern Yemen's oil-rich province of Shabwa, a government official said on Monday. The gunmen used explosives to bomb the main crude pipeline near the Jannah Hunt oil field on Sunday night, which has caused significant damage and resulted in a substantial crude oil spill, said the official who required anonymity. He added that the motives behind the attack remain unclear as the gunmen's identities are yet to be unveiled. The pipeline, connecting the Jannah Hunt oil field with the crude oil storage facilities in Alam, Jardan district, is now inoperative, posing a challenge to the region's oil distribution network, according to the official. Security forces and an engineering team were dispatched to repair the damage, who were however hindered by the gunmen, leading to an armed confrontation near the oil field. The situation escalated until the Giants Brigades, a militia loyal to the Southern Transitional Council, intervened. These forces have been governing Shabwa since early 2022. The region's oil infrastructure has been vulnerable to repeated attacks by various armed groups, often motivated by service demands or as a means to exert pressure on local authorities for various reasons, including the release of prisoners..
Saudis Ask U.S. for Restraint As Houthis Direct Missiles At Israel --As Yemen’s Houthis continue to target vessels in the Red Sea, and claimed on Wednesday to have launched missiles directly at Israel, Saudi Arabia is calling on the U.S. to show restraint as U.S. naval forces respond to Houthi attacks. On Wednesday, the Houthis launched “several” ballistic missiles at Israeli military posts in the city of Eilat, Reuters reports, citing a Houthi spokesperson. That statement followed the U.S. Navy’s shooting down of a Houthi drone earlier in the day. Analysts seem to be of the opinion that the Saudis are calling for restraint in order to avoid further escalation as this vital oil shipping route comes under attack. The calls for restraint follow an incident on Sunday in which three commercial ships were attacked by Houthis in international waters. The Houthis claimed the vessels had connections to Israel, which the Israelis have denied. The U.S. Navy shot down three Houthi drones when the vessels came under attack. Vaguely, the Pentagon has simply said if it decides to take more direct action against the Houthis, it will be “at a time and place” of its own choosing, apparently referring to the Saudi call for restraint. The Houthis pose a significant threat to commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a sea route choke point between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea. Most exports of petroleum and natural gas from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal or the SUMED Pipeline pass through both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz. With Israel’s war on Gaza raging, the Saudis are concerned with maintaining several balances, including the fragile semi-peace in Yemen that has resulted from its restoration of diplomatic ties with long-time arch-rival Iran, who has backed the Houthis, which have a sizable weapons arsenal. That arsenal was used in 2019 to attack Saudi Aramco oil facilities to devastating (if short-lived) impact on oil markets. Reuters has cited “senior sources in the Iran-aligned camp” as saying that the Houthis were using Red Sea attacks to pressure the U.S. to push Israel to cease its offensive on Gaza.
US Tells Israel Not to Strike the Houthis in Yemen - The Biden administration has asked Israel not to respond to recent attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have fired missiles and drones at Israel in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and have targeted Israeli-linked commercial ships in the Red Sea. US warships have responded to the Houthi attacks and have downed several Houthi missiles and drones in recent weeks.According to the Journal, the US is concerned an Israeli response could spark a major regional war. US officials told Israel that the US would handle any potential response, although POLITICO reported that the administration is not planning on directly targeting the Houthis, at least for now.The POLITICO report said the Pentagon has drawn up plans to strike the Houthis, but they have not been presented or recommended to President Biden. The report said there is a “high-level consensus within the administration that it does not make sense for the US military to respond directly to the Houthis.”Saudi Arabia has also urged the US not to strike the Houthis over concerns that such an attack could jeopardize the Saudi-Houthi peace process. A ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022, but a lasting peace deal has not yet been signed.The US announced sanctions targeting the Houthis on Thursday that target 13 people and firms allegedly involved in the sale and shipment of Iranian commodities. The Treasury Department claims the network has transferred tens of millions of dollars worth of foreign currency to the Houthis.
US Considers Forming Red Sea Task Force Amid Houthis Attacks - US officials are considering forming a Red Sea task force with other nations after a series of attacks by Yemen’s Houthis against commercial shipping that’s come in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.“We are in talks with other countries about a maritime task force of sorts involving the ships from partner nations alongside the United States in ensuring safe passage of ships in the Red Sea,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Monday.Sullivan’s comments came a day after the Pentagon said a US Navy destroyer, the USS Carney, responded to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Red Sea that were launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The Pentagon said the USS Carney shot down three drones heading in its direction, but Sullivan said the US “cannot assess” if the US warship was purposely targeted. The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, took credit for attacks on two of the commercial vessels, saying they were tied to Israel, but did not say they targeted the USS Carney. The Houthis have also recently fired missiles and drones at Israel, and some have been intercepted by US warships in the Red Sea.The US has backed a Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis in a brutal war in Yemen since 2015, but it’s rare the US and the Houthis exchange direct fire. Back in 2016, the US bombed Houthi radar sites in response to attacks on a US warship in the region. At the time, the Houthis denied targeting the US vessel…
UN chief Guterres invokes Article 99 of charter over Gaza crisis -- United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Wednesday invoked Article 99 of the U.N. charter for the first time, citing a “severe risk of collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza,” as the war rages on between Israel and the militant group Hamas.In a letter to José Javier De la Gasca Lopez Domínguez, the current U.N. Security Council president, Guterres said he expects “public order to completely break down due to desperate conditions, rendering even limited humanitarian assistance impossible.”The invocation of Article 99 allows the U.N. secretary-general to bring the attention of the security council to “any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security,” per the U.N. Guterres warned of an “even worse” situation unfolding in the besieged territory, including epidemic diseases and an increase in pressure to send displaced civilians to surrounding countries.The letter marks a rare and significant move by the U.N. chief, who has repeatedly called for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas amidst the rising death toll and destruction of Gaza, which has been controlled by Hamas since 2007.The war has now raged for nearly two months, with a weeklong pause, since Hamas launched a surprise assault into southern Israel on Oct. 7 that killed more than 1,200 people, including hundreds of civilians.Israel has hammered Gaza in response as part of its pledge to destroy the group and its military capabilities. The death toll in Gaza has risen to more than 16,000 people, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza.Israel’s siege on basic necessities including food, water and fuel further exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in the territory.While a weeklong truce last month allowed aid to enter the territory, fighting resumed last week, and Guterres said the current conditions make it “impossible” for humanitarian operations to be effectively conducted.“While delivery of supplies through Rafah continues, quantities are insufficient and have dropped since the pause came to an end. We are simply unable to reach those in need inside Gaza,” Guterres wrote.Guterres called on the Security Council to “press to avert a humanitarian catastrophe” and reiterated his “urgent appeal for a humanitarian cease-fire to allow the means of survival” to be restored and the safe and timely delivery of aid to Gaza.
UN Security Council to Discuss Gaza After UN Chief Invokes Rare Rule - The UN Security Council is expected to meet on Friday to discuss the Israeli onslaught in Gaza after UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter for the first time during his tenure, which started in 2017. Article 99 allows the UN chief to bring a matter to the attention of the Security Council that he believes threatens “international peace and security.” While invoking the rule, Guterres repeated his call for a “humanitarian ceasefire.” The Biden administration has rejected the idea of a ceasefire and blocked a UN Security Council resolution calling for one back in October. The US, which holds veto power as a permanent member of the 15-nation council, eventually allowed a resolution to pass that called for “humanitarian pauses.”Guterres and other UN officials have said Israel’s renewed onslaught has made relief efforts impossible. More aid trucks had been allowed into Gaza during the week-long truce that enabled hostage releases, but the current Israeli operations have halted most aid deliveries.Guterres said the UN “is simply unable to reach those in need in Gaza” and noted that at least 130 UN employees have been killed by the Israeli bombardment. UN officials have also said no place is safe in Gaza despite Israel’s claim of establishing safe zones, and Palestinians on the ground say there’s no safe place to evacuate.In response to Guterres’ actions, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen accused the UN chief of supporting Hamas. “Guterres’ tenure is a danger to world peace,” Cohen wrote on X. “His request to activate Article 99 and the call for a ceasefire in Gaza constitutes support of the Hamas terrorist organization.”
Israeli Defense Minister Threatens Military Action to Push Hezbollah Back from Lebanon Border - Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that Hezbollah must be pushed back from the Israeli border, and if it’s not achieved through diplomatic means, Israel will take military action.The comments suggest Israel is considering opening a second front in Lebanon beyond the cross-border strikes Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging since October 7.According to a recent report from Axios, some US officials are concerned that Israel might provoke Hezbollah to justify a wider war in Lebanon. The report said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had “expressed concern” in a phone call with Gallant in November about the risk of escalation on Israel’s northern border.Gallant made the comments on Wednesday while visiting the northern coastal city of Nahariyya. He said the Israeli government would not encourage the approximately 80,000 civilians who evacuated areas of northern Israel to return to their homes until Hezbollah is pushed back beyond the Litani River, which is 18 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border in southern Lebanon.At the end of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 established a demilitarized zone between the border and the Litani River, requiring Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah to move north of the river.According to The Times of Israel, Gallant said the best option would be to reach a diplomatic solution to agree on the enforcement of Resolution 1701. If that didn’t happen, he said Israel would “act with all the means at its disposal” to push Hezbollah back through military action.Last month, Gallant threatened a major war with Lebanon, saying Israel could turn Beirut into rubble like Gaza. “Hezbollah is dragging Lebanon to a possible war, and is making mistakes,” he said. “What we can do in Gaza, we can also do in Beirut … Our pilots are sitting in their cockpits, their aircraft facing north.”
Putin Trots Around Middle East, All Smiles With MbS, While US Can't Secure Ukraine Funding -It was no mere awkward fist bump, but instead Russian President Vladimir Putin's reception in Riyadh Wednesday was clearly very warm and enthusiastic.From the moment Putin walked out onto a royal purple carpet-bedecked airport tarmac to later being officially greeted by crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), it was chummy handshakes, back slaps and smiles all the way around."Nothing can prevent the development of our friendly relations," Putin told MbS, and invited him to visit Moscow in return."It is very important for all of us to exchange information and assessments with you on what is happening in the region. Our meeting is certainly timely," Putin said.Below is the moment of Putin's being received and welcomed by a glowing MbS, ironically at the very moment President Biden gave a White House speech bemoaning the inability of Congress to pass Ukraine defense funding, which runs out in three weeks...
Ukraine stalemate shifts war in Putin’s favor - The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate, with even Ukrainian officials admitting the highly anticipated counteroffensive is unlikely to reach a breakthrough, putting Kyiv on what could be its toughest path yet in the war. Ukraine is fighting two battles: convincing a growing, skeptical West to continue arming Ukrainian troops despite an obvious stalemate across the 600-mile eastern front, and progressing through a battlefield against entrenched Russian forces. After nearly two years of war, Ukraine is confronting enormous challenges while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to hold as much territory as possible and wait for Western allies to crack appears to be working. “I have no doubt that we will certainly achieve all the goals we have set for ourselves,” a confident Putin told Russian soldiers Friday at an event where he also announced his candidacy for the 2024 elections. After Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive slowed down in the past couple months, the war has shifted to a two-pronged Russian attack in the northeastern Luhansk region and the eastern Donetsk. Russia is suffering heavy losses trying to seize the rest of Luhansk. And the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk is mired in a bloody strategic stalemate. Moscow is seeking to continuously apply pressure on Ukraine to exhaust its resources, said Federico Borsari, a defense fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). But he cautioned against giving Russia too much credit. “I don’t think Russia is winning,” Borsari said. “It hasn’t achieved any kind of strategic results so far. But at the same time [Russia] has somewhat resisted the shockwave of the failures we have seen in the past two years.”
NATO chief on Ukraine war: ‘Be prepared for bad news’ - NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned there could be bad news coming out about Ukraine, as fears grow of a stalemate with Russia and allies such as the U.S. debate whether to send more aid to the country. “Wars develop in phases. We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times. We should also be prepared for bad news,” Stoltenberg said in an interview with German broadcaster ARD on Saturday, according to Politico Europe. Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s small victories are important in ending the war, despite Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive not resulting in major headway. However, Ukrainian troops secured a victory last month by pushing Russian forces back on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. “These are big victories even though they haven’t been able to move the front line,” Stoltenberg said. The NATO chief also urged allies to continue sending support to Ukraine in the interview. “The more we support the Ukraine, the faster the war will end,” he said. Stoltenberg’s comments come just as the White House issued a warning Monday saying it will run out of funds to provide weapons to Ukraine in its fight against Russia without congressional action by the end of the year. Additional aid for Ukraine has hit a wall in the House, while Senate Republicans are looking to tie support for Kyiv with border security changes.
Kyiv Mayor Says Zelensky Is an Authoritarian and Lying About War - Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning Ukraine into an authoritarian state as public criticism of Ukrainian leadership is becoming more common.“At some point we will no longer be any different from Russia, where everything depends on the whim of one man,” Klitschko, a former heavyweight boxing champion, told Germany’s Der Spiegel.In a separate interview, Klitschko also sided with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, who was recently rebuked by Zelensky for saying the war had turned into a stalemate and that there was no chance of a breakthrough.“[Zaluzhny] told the truth,” Klitschko told the Swiss outlet 20 Minutes. “Some may not want to hear the truth [but] we can’t lie to our people and partners indefinitely.”Recent internal polling has shown that Zaluzhny has a good chance of beating Zelensky in a future presidential election and that the Ukrainian public trusts the general much more than the president. Ukrainian presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024, but Zelensky has ruled out holding a vote if the war is not over by then.Ukraine’s constitution does not allow elections during martial law, although Zelensky previously said holding a vote was possible if the West bankrolled it. But he has since said elections are “not appropriate at this time.”Klitschko also accused Zelensky of not being prepared for Russia’s February 2022 invasion. “People wonder why we weren’t better prepared for this war, why Zelensky denied until the end that it would come to this,” he said. “People see who’s effective and who’s not. And there were and still are a lot of expectations. Zelensky is paying for mistakes he has made.”
India's wheat stocks hit 7-year low as govt sells more to calm prices- India's wheat inventories at state warehouses have dropped to 19 million metric tons, the lowest in seven years, two government sources said on Friday, as two years of falling production forced state-run agencies to sell more grain to private players. Last year, India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, banned exports after output was curtailed due to a heat wave and overseas sales picked up as Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent global prices to multi-year highs. While U.S. wheat prices have corrected more than 35% so far in 2023, prices in India have leapt more than 20% in the past few months, despite the ban. That, according to trade and industry officials, is because this year's domestic wheat output is at least 10% less than the farm ministry's estimate of record production of 112.74 million metric tons. Another indicator of low output is that the government has bought only 26.2 million metric tons of wheat from local farmers this year, compared with its target of 34.15 million tons. But, despite the tight supply, the government has resisted calls to facilitate imports by either lowering or abolishing the current 40% tax or by directly buying from top suppliers such as Russia. Instead, it has dipped into state reserves to sell wheat to bulk consumers, such as flour millers and biscuit makers, to cool domestic prices. "Stocks are lower, but the government still has sufficient stocks to ensure that prices do not rise sharply. The government can still offload more wheat in the market if there's a requirement," said one of the sources.
India extends export curbs on deoiled rice bran until end-March - India has decided to extend restrictions on exports of deoiled rice bran until March. 31, 2024, the government said in a notification on Friday. India is a leading exporter of deoiled rice bran, which is used in the cattle feed industry.
India bans onion exports until March 31, 2024 - - India has imposed a ban on exports of onions until March 31, 2024, according to a government order issued late on Thursday. India had previously imposed a minimum export price of $800 per metric ton, until Dec. 31, 2023, to discourage exports, in an effort to curb surging local prices.
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