Inflation proves sticky, clouding Fed policy outlook -- Inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but a rate cut remains on the table heading into next week. Annualized inflation increased to 2.7% in November from 2.6% the previous month, providing further evidence that the economy remains strong despite restrictive monetary policy.
Government Spending Shock: US Budget Deficit Soars In Worst Start To Year On Record -- We thought last month's US budget deficit was bad. Boy, were we wrong. It is only fitting that the twilight days of the Biden admin would exhibit more of the same fakeness that defined not only all of the past four years, but certainly the fakeness of that Kamala Harris presidential campaign which had a billion dollars a month ago and ended up in failure, broke... and millions in debt. We are talking, of course, about the relentless debt-funded spree that somehow became synonymous with economic success in the US. According to the latest Treasury data released today, in November - the second month of fiscal 2025 - the US spent a massive $584.2 billion, a 14% increase from the prior year, and a record for the month of November. For those who remember out outrage from a month ago, will also remember that the latest deficit number follows what was also a record government outlay for the month of October.On a trailing 6 month moving average basis, to smooth out outliers months, the spending hit $586 billion, effectively at an all time high with just the record spending spree during covid pushing government spending higher. The surge in spending was driven primarily by higher spending on health, defense and Social Security, but mostly a huge $50BN spike on Medicare outlays! The long-term chart of government spending shows what we all know: DOGE or not DOGE, there is no stopping this train.The surge in spending was far greater than the much more modest increase in tax revenues: in November, the US government collected $301.8 billion in taxes, up 9.8% from the $274.8 billion last November. As shown in the next chart, while spending continued to grow exponentially, tax receipts have flatlined, and the 6 month average in October was just $380 billion, the same as three years ago!
National Defense Authorization Act faces roadblocks over divisive amendments --Congressional negotiators are facing roadblocks over divisive, culture war amendments on a 1,800-page National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that addresses core U.S. priorities on national security. The $883.7 billion NDAA includes widely supported measures like boosting the U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific, pay raises for troops, funding the building of seven new ships and shoring up the defense industrial base. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said the NDAA for fiscal 2025, which lays out the priorities for Congress to fund in separate defense appropriation bills, “refocuses our military on its core mission of defending America and its interests around the globe.” “This legislation also reinforces our commitment to America’s brave men and women in uniform, and their families, by making landmark investments in their quality of life,” he said in a statement. But the legislation includes language that Democrats are already objecting to, including restrictions on coverage of gender-affirming care for transgender children of service members and a provision aimed at curtailing diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs within the military. The House tentatively plans to vote on the NDAA on Wednesday, though that is dependent on the bill getting past the Rules Committee on Monday evening. Here’s what to know about the NDAA and the key battles ahead, as both the House and Senate prepare to vote on the bill. The most controversial amendment in the defense bill is a restriction on the children of U.S. service members from receiving medical treatment if they are diagnosed with gender dysphoria. Democrats have blasted the provision as a measure that takes aim at transgender youth. Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, said Johnson is “pandering to the most extreme elements of his party to ensure that he retains his speakership,” accusing him of trashing a typical bipartisan process. “Blanketly denying health care to people who clearly need it, just because of a biased notion against transgender people, is wrong,” Smith said in a statement. “This provision injected a level of partisanship not traditionally seen in defense bills.” The pro-LGBTQ advocacy group Human Rights Campaign accused Republicans of playing “politics with the healthcare of children of servicemembers.” “This is not leadership, it’s bullying, and it is a direct attack on military families,” said Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson in a statement. “This cruel and hateful bill suddenly strips away access to medical care for families that members of our armed forces are counting on, and it could force servicemembers to choose between staying in the military or providing healthcare for their children.” The NDAA also has an amendment that targets DEI programs, which Republicans have long been critical of for focusing the military on race, gender identity and sexual orientation instead of military strength. The bill would restrict the Department of Defense from creating any new positions related to DEI a year after the NDAA is passed. It’s unclear if Democrats are prepared to oppose this measure, but they have resisted GOP attempts to ban DEI initiatives in the past. During the NDAA discussions between the House Armed Services Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee, some lawmakers had called to keep in the bill the inclusion of expanded in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment coverage in the military’s health care service, known as TRICARE. Specifically, lawmakers wanted TRICARE to fully cover IVF, similar to coverage enjoyed by civilian federal employees. But the amendment is not included in the final NDAA package. Leaving the provision out could lead some lawmakers to push for the amendment to be included again. Both Republicans and Democrats praised efforts in the NDAA to boost the quality of life for service members after recommendations from a bipartisan panel formed last year were included in the bill. Among the biggest wins for both sides is a 14.5 percent pay raise for junior-enlisted service members, a major new proposal this year that a bipartisan group of lawmakers had pushed along with military organizations. All service members would get a 4.5 percent pay raise. Another measure in the bill would expand eligibility for the Basic Needs Allowance for service members by increasing the income cap from 150 percent of the federal poverty guidelines to 200 percent. The stipend is meant to alleviate food insecurity. The bill also includes several provisions meant to improve barracks on military installations, such as providing free wireless internet, a requirement for the Pentagon to create a digital system for maintenance requests and the authorization of $1.2 billion to renovate and build new barracks. Other provisions would allow service members to seek some specialty health care without referrals, make it easier for military spouses to transfer professional licenses between states, and require on-base child care workers to be paid a wage competitive with the private sector. One provision would ban the Department of Defense from working with vendors that have boycotted Israel, and another would prohibt the Pentagon from contracting with advertising firms that blacklist conservative news sources. This year, lawmakers also cut some $35 billion from the NDAA in what Johnson said were wasteful or inefficient programs at the Pentagon. House Democrats, who said they blocked several controversial amendments in the NDAA during conference, praised amendments to expand Pentagon efforts to mitigate blast exposure. Democrats also pointed to amendments to require the Pentagon to come up with a plan to resolve deficiencies with the F-35 program and to increase oversight and competition with the Sentinel nuclear missile program. The bill would also boost U.S. funding in the Indo-Pacific to counter China, provide $17.5 billion for military construction projects and create a Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative, modeled after a Ukraine program that allows the U.S. to purchase from private industry for an ally. It also calls for the construction of seven battle force ships, including a Virginia-class submarine, the procurement of around 200 aircraft and more than 300 ground vehicles.
House Passes $895 Billion Defense Authorization Bill - The House of Representatives could vote this week on a compromise version of the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), with up to $895.2 billion in defense discretionary spending. This latest version of the NDAA, coming in at 1,813 pages, is a compromise between earlier House and Senate proposals for the annual defense bill. The House and Senate Armed Services Committees released the new compromise bill on Dec. 7. It allocates $849.9 billion for programs under the Department of Defense (DOD), another $33.3 billion for defense programs run through the Department of Energy and its Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, and $512.4 million for defense-related activities. The NDAA allows for up to $11.5 billion in discretionary spending adjustments, bringing the potential total to $895.2 billion. Another $26.5 billion is tied to mandatory programs. The new version includes increased funding to bolster U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region with $15.6 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a program focused on bolstering the U.S. military’s China-facing capabilities. The spending allocation is $5.7 billion higher than the DOD requested. Other provisions are aimed at reducing the risk of Chinese actors being able to access sensitive U.S. information. Numerous measures bar the DOD from buying certain equipment or contracting for specific services from China. The compromise NDAA also provides funding for seven new warships, including one Virginia-class submarine and supplemental funding for a second; an amphibious transport dock ship; and one medium landing ship. It also authorizes funding for three new Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers; one more than the DOD requested. The new NDAA fully funds the new Columbia-class submarine and B-21 Raider stealth bomber programs. Included in the Act, is a 4.5 percent pay raise for all U.S. troops across the board, with enlisted ranks E-4 and below to receive a 14.5 percent pay boost. Allowances are increased for both the cost of living and basic needs for servicemembers. The bill also bolsters family support by funding childcare programs and new facilities, as well as expanding military spouse employment support. “Servicemember quality of life concerns are a major cause of low morale and family stress, which are undermining recruitment, retention, and military readiness,” the Republican-led House Armed Services Committee said in a summary. Update (1638ET): The House on Wednesday passed the sweeping $895 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which cleared the chamber in a bipartisan 281-140 vote. 200 Republicans and 81 Democrats joined together to push it over the finish line, while Senate GOP Whip John Thune (SD) said he expects the package to hit the other chamber early next week. The House has easily approved the 2025 NDAA - a major defense policy bill. The vote came after a dustup over a transgender treatment provision added in by Speaker Mike Johnson and opposed by Democrats. The bill now goes to the Senate. pic.twitter.com/fWScowN8cP The package includes a 14.5% pay raise for junior enlisted service members, as well as a 4.5% increase for all other members.
House Passes Massive $895 Billion National Defense Authorization Act - On Wednesday, the House passed the mammoth $895 billion 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual military spending bill that includes funding for the Pentagon and some military-related funding for other government agencies.The bill passed in a vote of 281-140, with 124 Democrats voting against a provision banning the coverage of certain transgender-related treatments for children of servicemembers. The legislation now heads to the Senate, where it’s expected to face some Democratic opposition but will likely pass in a vote due to be held next week.While it is a massive bill, the NDAA does not reflect the total military spending of the US. According to veteran defense analyst Winslow Wheeler, based on the $895 billion request by the White House, US national security spending for 2025 is expected to reach about $1.77 trillion. Table produced by Winslow Wheeler showing National Security Spending from 2024-2025 (click to enlarge) Wheeler’s estimate accounts for military-related spending from other government agencies not funded by the NDAA, such as the Department of Veteran Affairs and Homeland Security. It also includes the national security share of the interest accrued on the US debt and other factors. In recent years, Congress has also authorized massive “emergency” supplemental spending bills to fund proxy wars overseas. In April, President Biden signed a massive $95 billion supplemental that included military aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
Record US military spending bill continues expansion of US nuclear arsenal -The US House of Representatives approved the largest annual military spending bill in US history on Wednesday, allocating another $895 billion to wage war all over the world and expand the US nuclear arsenal. The 2025 spending bill is 45 percent larger than it was a decade ago, following years of massive military spending increases under the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations. This year’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is $53 billion larger than the 2024 bill and $122 billion more than the 2023 bill. The bill is expected to be fast-tracked through the Senate before being signed by US President Joe Biden by the end of the month. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said Tuesday that the bill “ensures our military has the resources and capabilities needed to remain the most powerful fighting force on the planet.” Critically, the bill continues the multitrillion-dollar nuclear modernization program, initiated under the Obama administration, that replaces every part of the US nuclear arsenal, from intercontinental ballistic missiles to nuclear submarines and nuclear-capable aircraft, with newer and deadlier versions. The bill authorizes the Air Force to restore the nuclear capability of the B-52 bomber and expand its capabilities for delivering long-range nuclear standoff weapons. It prohibits, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “reducing the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles below 400.” The bill authorizes the construction of new nuclear-powered submarines and guided missile destroyers as part of a $33.5 billion expansion of shipbuilding, alongside the construction of 92 new fighter aircraft. As happens every year, both parties voted overwhelmingly in favor of the bill, despite some Democrats objecting to it over issues related to gender-affirming care. Even those sections of the “progressive” wing of the Democratic Party who criticized the bill for being “wasteful” did so from the standpoint of making the US military more efficient at waging war all over the world. “I want the US to have the greatest military in the world and the resources to counter increasingly sophisticated threats from our adversaries,” declared “progressive” Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, who voted against the bill. The far-right Heritage Foundation praised it, declaring, “The FY25 NDAA takes an important step toward a defense budget that flows from strategy and directs DOD to become as lethal as possible.”
Congress races toward Dec. 20 government shutdown deadline - Congress has just 10 days until government funding is set to run out, and lawmakers don’t have a deal to keep the lights on during the holidays. Members on both sides of the aisle expect the government will stay open past the Dec. 20 shutdown deadline. But negotiators are keeping their colleagues guessing about how that will be achieved as funding talks enter a critical stretch. Negotiators have cited ongoing work assessing disaster relief as a key factor in discussions, as members expect disaster aid to ride alongside any funding stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), that passes this month. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said last week that negotiators have continued to comb through the Biden administration’s “robust” request for more than $100 billion in disaster aid to respond to hurricanes Helene and Milton. “I’ve said before, they’re very robust. I think they should be. I think we have real disaster,” he said of the proposals. But while President Biden’s request includes tens of billions of dollars in funding for disaster programs like the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Cole also said he’s not “interested in extra money for programs that are not disaster related, and there’s some of that in the president’s proposal.” Republicans have singled out funding requests for the departments of State and Education, as well as the Environmental Protection Agency, tucked into the disaster funding request. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, also pointed to the lack of a top-line agreement in disaster aid holding up funding talks. “There’s not been any real hard-and-fast debates about what’s there, because the issue is, we got to get to a top line, and then we can start to go forward,” she said recently while discussing the negotiations around disaster aid and overall government funding. Bipartisan calls for leadership to pass legislation for disaster relief have only grown since Congress returned from recess in November, not long after the devastation wrought by hurricanes Milton and Helene. Cole said Congress could also address the disaster need “as a stand-alone” but noted that leadership thinks “it would help putting on the CR.”
Lawmakers edge closer to deal on government funding, disaster aid -- Lawmakers say they are edging closer to a deal to keep the government’s lights on in nine days but are still trying to work out differences over disaster aid and potential add-ons to the bill. There’s some optimism in the Capitol that bill text could arrive as soon as this weekend as the Dec. 20 shutdown deadline quickly approaches, but they’ve also been mum on many of the specifics as spending talks ramp up. Disaster aid has been one of the key holdups, as leaders are expected to tack billions of dollars intended for recovery efforts from hurricanes Helene and Milton onto the forthcoming continuing resolution (CR). “The cake is still being baked. There’s a ton of people trying to get in the kitchen, and they’re not even into the mixing bowl yet,” Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.), chair of the subcommittee that crafts annual funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), said Tuesday when asked about disaster aid talks. Amodei said he thinks “there’s a lot of things” coming together as leadership tries to strike a deal on a stopgap, but he noted “disaster is one of the harder ones.” The Biden administration has asked for roughly $115 billion in funding for disaster aid in the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton. While there is broad bipartisan support for disaster relief, some Republicans have raised concerns with the size and scope of the White House’s request, particularly proposed funding in areas like the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency. “Whether the amount is larger or relatively smaller, we’re going to have to spend the money sooner rather than later, or later rather than sooner,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, told The Hill on Tuesday. “We’re going to have to spend it because none of those folks in Appalachia and Georgia had any funds.” However, he also expressed the desire for pay-fors to cover expenses for the relief, saying “there are offsets to be had.” But he added, it’s “not a question of, can they be found, the question is whether people have the political will to do them.” Kennedy’s sentiment echoes those on the other side of the Capitol, where hard-line conservatives in the House have also been pushing for offsets to cover any disaster aid passed under the current administration. “The House should consider only what is absolutely necessary right now to provide critical relief to hurricane victims and farmers, and pay for it with offsets from wasteful spending elsewhere in the government, then wait for President Trump to take office to better manage disaster relief,” the hard-line conservative House Freedom Caucus said last week. Other Republicans have also expressed interest in offsets, but aren’t yet drawing red lines as officials have warned of dwindling funds in recent weeks. “I’m all for paying for as much as we can pay for,” Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), another appropriator, told The Hill this week. “On the other hand, there are certain situations where only, only the federal government, can step in and make a difference.” “And so infrastructure, things like that, we’ve always, we’ve always done it. So, I think that we need to do what we need to do,” he said. “But again, as much as we can pay for will be great.” Kennedy said negotiations over the expected disaster aid ride-on have been more toward the $100 billion level. “It’s a moving target. [Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)] is involved in negotiations. We’ll know in the next couple of days.” With little legislative time left on the calendar, senators have signaled some other last-minute pushes that could also ride as part of the forthcoming stopgap measure. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told The Hill this week that the goal is for “some kind of extension” for the farm bill, but opened the door for “additional economic assistance” without offering specifics. Congressional Democrats say they have also been fighting to protect $20 billion in IRS funding as part of the talks, and other items like dollars for the Social Security Administration could also emerge as areas of focus as discussions continue. Top negotiators on both sides say Congress is likely on track for a stopgap through sometime in March, although there has been bipartisan resistance to the idea in recent months as many lawmakers have pushed against putting off fiscal 2025 funding work even longer. “We could have met the December 20 deadline. But there we go,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, told The Hill this week. But she also expressed confidence Congress will finish its work by next March if they lock in the targeted timeline.
Johnson needs Dems to pass a stopgap spending bill. Here's what they want. - Lawmakers only have nine working days left to figure out government funding before the shutdown deadline, and Speaker Mike Johnson will almost certainly need House Democratic votes to pass it. Congress is likely to pass a stopgap government funding measure before Dec. 20, likely to fund the government until March of next year at its current levels. But considering Johnson’s razor-thin margin and a notable conservative faction of his conference that doesn’t generally support stopgap spending bills, known as continuing resolutions, House Democrats will likely be the ones to get the legislation over the finish line. Typically, punting a funding deadline into a new year when Republicans will control every lever of power would make Democrats shudder. But they’re not putting up much of a fight this time around. While leadership negotiations are ongoing at this point, Democrats have made clear that they have one main demand for the stopgap: a robust supplemental package to address disaster aid. They also want to ensure that there are no cuts or partisan riders included in the stopgap measure. The White House requested nearly $100 billion to aid in recovery from several natural disasters across the country, including hurricanes Helene and Milton, the Maui wildfires and tornadoes in the Midwest. To be clear: Democrats are not going to provoke a shutdown over the supplemental package and prevent Congress from going home for the holidays. If the continuing resolution is “clean,” as lawmakers put it, they’re going to work to keep the government open.
US, Israel and Turkey Launch Airstrikes in Syria After Cheering Regime Change - Several nations have been loudly cheering the weekend regime change in Syria (some are even taking credit for it). But despite the Islamist faction they were backing ending up taking Damascus, neither the US, Turkey, nor Israel are actually stopping attacks on Syrian territory. If anything, they are increasing strikes.The US, Turkey and Israel all carried out airstrikes inside their respective spheres of influence in Syria after the regime change was announced. None of them indicated that these are to be seen as one-off strikes or a special situation. Rather, it appears to be the new normal, which looks suspiciously like the old normal.On Sunday, Israel was carrying out major airstrikes across Syria, and alsosent ground troops into the country to seize more of the Golan Heights. They insisted the new territory was a “buffer zone,” and have couched the airstrikes as targeting Syria’s military assets.New Israeli airstrikes were reported Monday against military depots in Ain Maneen village and the city of al-Qarah. Though Israel said the new territory seized was a “temporary measure,” they indicated that the airstrikes against sites across Syria would continue.The US carried out multiple airstrikes across central Syria, saying they targeted “known ISIS camps.” They said they wanted to prevent the Islamists from taking advantage of the Syria takeover by a separate Islamist faction. They have, however, been trying to get the Kurdish SDF to take advantage of the situation since last week, seeking for them to seize more of eastern Syria.The US hopes that regime change will allow Syrian Kurds to take over even more of the oil-rich northeast. This clashes with Turkey’s ambitions in the region to see the Kurds kept carefully under thumb, even though both were backing the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in taking over the country.Turkish drones have been quite active in northern Syria since the fall of Damascus. In the last 24 hours, Turkish drones strikes have killed at least dozens of people, including 15 former soldiers and three members of Syrian Kurds’ security apparatus Asayish. They also killed 11 civilians including six children in the Kurdish region of Syria.Turkey’s Foreign Minister has met with UN Secretary General António Guterres, and is laying out a “red line” for Syria, saying they don’t want either ISIS or the Kurdish PKK to benefit from the new situation.Though Turkey mentions the PKK specifically, but historically they’ve been very flexible on the application of that label. The PKK’s sister organization, the YPG, is the main Kurdish force in Syria. The YPG is also the main fighting force and a substantial part of the leadership of the SDF, which the US has been backing for years.In addition to existing support from the US, the Syrian Kurds are alsoseeking backing from Israel. The HTS itself isn’t seen as friendly toward the Kurds, and given alliances with the Turkish-backed factions from the northwest they would be even more likely to be hostile. While many are inclined to view the current situation as post Civil War Syria, the fighting and foreign intervention shows no sign of ending. Indeed, the battle lines are being drawn for yet more confrontations, particularly between the new Islamist regime and the Kurdish factions.
US Backs Israel's Land Grab in Syria - -On Monday, the US State Department backed Israel’s seizure of territory in Syria that came after the collapse of the government of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, framing it as a defensive action.Israel seized a buffer zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria’s territory that was established in 1974 and also captured several areas beyond the zone. When asked about the land grab, State Department spokesman Matt Miller said it was important to put the situation in “context.”“First of all, the Syrian army abandoned its positions in the area around the negotiated Israeli-Syrian buffer zone, which potentially creates a vacuum that could have been filled by terrorist organizations that would threaten the state of Israel and would threaten civilians inside Israel. Every country has the right to take action against terrorist organizations,” Miller said.Miller also insisted the Israeli occupation of the land was temporary. “The second thing that is important is that Israel has said that these actions are temporary to defend its borders. These are not permanent actions,” he said.Also on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the Golan Heights would be Israel’s “forever,” although it’s unclear if he was referring to the recently-captured territory.Several Arab countries, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, strongly condemned the Israeli seizure of Syria’s territory. The Qatari Foreign Ministry said it considered the move “a dangerous development and a blatant attack on Syria’s sovereignty and unity as well as a flagrant violation of international law.”Saudi Arabia said the land grab confirmed “Israel’s continued violation of the rules of international law and its determination to sabotage Syria’s chances of restoring its security, stability and territorial integrity.”
US, Israel launch mass bombing campaign against Syria after fall of Assad - After Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepped down Sunday and ordered a peaceful transfer of power to “rebel” forces led by the Al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia, US and Israeli warplanes started a massive bombing campaign against Syria. Washington and its regional allies are launching the rape and carve-up of Syria. As the Israeli army attacks north towards Damascus, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is attacking south, targeting Kurdish forces in northern Syria, and HTS is taking over government in areas previously controlled by Assad. Statements by Israeli officials make clear that the US-Israeli bombings aim to annihilate Syria’s capability to defend itself militarily. Last night, Israeli military sources told the Jerusalem Post they had carried out 350 air strikes on “the majority of strategic weapons stockpiles within Syria.” US warplanes struck 75 more targets in Syria. Israeli targets included air defense systems, missile stockpiles, airfields, warplanes, tanks, and drone fleets and military production facilities in cities, including Damascus, Homs, Palmyra, Latakia and Tartus. Israel also reportedly sank Syria’s navy at anchor in Al-Bayda and Latakia. US-Israeli strikes are meeting no opposition from Syrian air defenses. Israeli officials told the Post they had “extended operational freedom” in Syria. Washington’s arming of Israel throughout its genocide in Gaza has proven to be part of a broader offensive to subjugate the entire region. This was most bluntly laid out in a press conference Monday by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Hailing the collapse of the Assad regime as “a new and dramatic chapter” in history, Netanyahu proclaimed: “We are changing the face of the Middle East.” Israeli units have crossed the border into Syria to seize parts of the Golan Heights and have launched an armored offensive north towards Damascus. Al Jazeera reported that Israeli tanks had reached only 25km from Damascus and were located close to the Damascus airport. While Israeli officials denied that their forces were 25km from Damascus, they are calling to set up a “sterile” buffer zone controlled by Israel between the Golan Heights and the Syrian capital. Yesterday morning, during a visit to a naval base at Haifa, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced: “Together with the prime minister, I have instructed the [military] to establish a sterile defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria, without a permanent Israeli presence.” Whether or not there was a permanent Israeli military presence, such a zone would leave the city of Damascus permanently at the mercy of Israeli attack. While US and European media claim that Assad’s handover of power to HTS is bringing Syria a new democratic dawn, reports on the ground paint a different picture. The Sunni Islamist militia backed by the NATO powers and Israel are terrorizing the population—particularly among the Christian, Druze and Shia Alawite communities. Cardinal Mario Zenari, the Catholic Church’s envoy to Syria, reported to Vatican News the situation in Aleppo after its capture by HTS: “In certain zones, it’s fairly calm, but that is suspect. There is a lot of fear, government offices have shut down, as has the army, which has disappeared. Armed groups are circulating and are promising not to attack the civilian population. Until now, it appears they have respected this promise, but still people are terrified and are shutting themselves in at home. … Fear, terror and uncertainty rule.” Videos are already circulating on social media showing HTS fighters executing Alawites in the street. HTS, like the broader Al Qaeda networks and their backers in the Sunni Muslim oil sheikdoms of the Persian Gulf, is violently hostile to Shia Islam, Shia-majority Iran, and Alawites, the community to which Assad belongs. One video shows HTS forces executing what they claim are Alawites in Lattakia:
U.S. troops face challenges after Assad's fall in Syria - The collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria throws a major wrench into the counter-ISIS mission for the roughly 900 U.S. troops in the country, while also complicating Washington’s allies in the region.The U.S. carried out a massive preemptive strike against ISIS over the weekend as Syria’s capital of Damascus fell to a rebel coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Assad fled to Moscow. While Assad’s main backers, Iran and Russia, are expected to suffer the most from the collapse, the U.S. and its Kurdish allies will now have to work with a coalition of rebels largely backed by Turkey, which considers Kurdish fighters terrorists. The emerging new coalition in Damascus could also have big implications for relations among other U.S. allies in the region, including Iraq, Israel and Jordan. Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, said he was concerned about whether HTS would actually seek to restore peace in Syria and maintain independence from Ankara.“What we’re going to see is [a] decision point in the next couple days, whether HTS is going to be a Syrian nationalist and govern for all Syria, or whether they’re basically going to be mercenaries for Turkey,” he said. “And that itself is very worrying.” HTS, formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front, is an offshoot of al Qaeda, but has tried to rebrand itself in the past few years while governing the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has made overtures to the international community, promising to protect minority rights and bring Syria into a state of governance. “People who fear Islamic governance either have seen incorrect implementations of it or do not understand it properly,” he told CNN last week. “We are talking about a larger project — we are talking about building Syria. … Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions.” His comments are being met with cautious optimism in Washington. President Biden signaled in a Sunday speech it was a “historic opportunity” for Syria after the fall of the Assad regime after 50 years, calling the development a “fundamental act of justice.” But Biden also cautioned that it was “a moment of risk and uncertainty,” as he vowed to continue the mission against ISIS in Syria and support regional allies. “As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risks,” Biden said. Communication will be difficult, given the U.S. has designated HTS a terrorist organization, and the Pentagon said Monday that it has no direct channels with the group whose leader, Golani, has a $10 million bounty on his head. Biden and top U.S. officials have passed messages to HTS through Turkey but are reportedly considering whether to establish direct communication, according to The New York Times. Turkey has also designated HTS a terrorist group but has broadly funded the opposition coalition led by Golani. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has largely kept a public distance from the developments in Syria, but Ankara acknowledged reaching out to Assad as forces closed in on Damascus. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Turkish counterpart, Yaşar Güler, on Sunday, and both agreed to avoid creating any risk to U.S. forces or the counter-ISIS mission in Syria. Turkey has long decried the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control territory in northeastern Syria along with U.S. forces to counter ISIS. Turkey and the U.S. are NATO allies but have long butted heads over Washington’s support for the SDF. The Kurdish people have no nation and are a minority in Turkey, and some of them have joined U.S.-designated terrorist groups like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party fighting for an autonomous state.
US Rushes To Contain Turkey-Backed Offensive Against Its SDF Proxy In Syria - The US government is scrambling to address a Turkish-backed offensive targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Turkish officials have announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Ankara on Friday. A statement from the State Department indicated that Blinken will discuss the importance of ensuring that the transition process and the formation of a new government in Syria respect the rights of minorities and prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism. Washington was reportedly caught off guard by the rapid overthrow of Assad by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-aligned forces, which occurred in just 11 days. Reports suggest that US officials had been attempting to negotiate a deal with Assad that would have normalized his position in exchange for severing ties with Hezbollah and Iran. The US has expressed concern over Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) operations targeting the SDF, a US partner force. These operations have resulted in the seizure of areas including Tal Rifaat and Manbij, which had been under SDF control earlier this month. By securing Tal Rifaat and Manbij, Turkey has solidified its control over key areas west of the Euphrates, creating a buffer zone along its borders. Following the capture of Manbij, the SNA crossed the Euphrates River and seized the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, a site of significant historical and cultural importance linked to the Ottoman Empire. The move triggered an outrcy from the SDF, raising concerns that the front would move towards the heavily populated city of Kobane. Turkey has long regarded the SDF as an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), despite its rebranding and its partnership with the US in the fight against the Islamic State (IS). A Turkish official told Middle East Eye that Blinken was probably coming to ensure that the SNA wouldn't progress towards Kobane or Ayn al Arab, as known in Arabic. "Turkey will maintain military pressure because some officials in the US are facilitating talks between the SDF and Israel in a last-minute attempt to secure the group's future," a person familiar with the issue told MEE. Israeli public broadcaster Kann last week revealed that the first official talks between Tel Aviv and the SDF leadership took place earlier this month. This development has raised eyebrows, as senior Israeli officials have begun adopting rhetoric supportive of the Syrian Kurdish group. Meanwhile, US Central Command (Centcom) Commander General Michael Kurilla visited northeastern Syria on Tuesday, reiterating US support for the SDF as an anti-IS partner force. Murat Yesiltas, a senior expert at the Ankara-based think tank Seta, argues that Ankara aims to strengthen its position during Donald Trump’s term by undermining the SDF as much as possible. Trump had repeatedly voiced his intention to withdraw US forces from Syria during his first term, but pressure from the Pentagon and a US media campaign limited his efforts, resulting in only a partial pullback in 2019. Yesiltas told MEE he does not believe Ankara will escalate the situation by launching a major operation in areas such as Kobane or Qamishli, which are heavily populated with civilians. “However, there is a sense that the Americans are seeking a grand bargain to resolve the SDF issue,” Yesiltas said. “But Blinken and others only have one month left in office, so any deal must be negotiated with the incoming Trump administration. The new Syria increasingly appears united, and autonomy for a few million people in the country seems unlikely.” A separate source familiar with the situation noted that the threat posed by SDF-controlled areas is higher than ever, despite the loss of Manbij and Tal Rifaat. "The Syrian regime previously maintained a civil and military presence in areas like Hasakah and Qamishli, but they are no longer there. This absence provides the SDF with an opportunity to resemble a state more than ever before," the source said.
Al-Golani: US-designated terrorist becomes Syria's liberation leader - Designated by the U.S. as a terrorist and with a $10 million bounty on his head, Abu Mohammed al-Golani has emerged as the leading figure in Syria’s liberation from the decades-long oppressive regime of Bashar Assad. He has quickly placed himself at the forefront of shaping the country’s future, with a past that is raising concerns even as much of Syria celebrates Assad’s fall. Born in Syria in the late 1970s or early 1980s, al-Golani is promoting himself as a pragmatic, political leader and extending assurances for Syria’s multiethnic and religious populations. These promises run in direct contrast to the violence and human rights abuses carried out by the Islamist groups he aligned with in the past, such as ISIS and al Qaeda. “No one has the right to erase another group,” he said in an interview with CNN in the days before taking over Damascus, the seat of Assad’s government. “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them. There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all, not a system that serves only one sect, as Assad’s regime has done.”While the Biden administration has welcomed Assad’s collapse as an historic, landmark event, U.S. officials have not confirmed it is in touch directly with al-Golani or members of the group he leads, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is also designated as a terrorist group. Al-Golani, as head of HTS, broke away from its alignment with al Qaeda, but U.S. officials and analysts are closely watching whether actions line up with the public statements. “We will remain vigilant, make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human right abuses,” President Biden said in remarks from the White House on Sunday. “We’ve taken note of statements by the leaders of these rebel groups in recent days, and they’re saying the right things now. But as they take on greater responsibility we will assess not just their words but their actions.Born Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria, al-Golani’s pseudonym is a reference to his family’s roots on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights — signaling one concern from the U.S. and Israel, whether al-Golani and HTS pose a threat to Israel.Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said HTS and its coalition groups are “much obsessed and inwardly focused” on establishing political rule over Syria. HTS, at the head of a military coalition including opposition forces and Islamist groups, appear to have control over the western half of the country with the main population centers of Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Homs and access to the Mediterranean Sea. Syrian-Kurdish groups, some backed by the U.S., have control over a smaller part of the country in the east. “Going forward though, the way that governments in Damascus often legitimate themselves — especially when they are unable to deliver for their people — is they do so through the resistance narrative and through attacking Israel,” Tabler said during a video briefing with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.“The question is whether these groups, whether it’s HTS or other Sunni-backed groups, will they resort to this old playbook to get legitimacy and to somehow capitalize on this war with Israel?”Al-Golani, in a victory speech delivered in Damascus’s historic Umayyad Mosque on Sunday, declared a new chapter in the region where the Syrian people are taking ownership of the country. By Monday, he was holding transitional meetings between Assad’s appointed prime minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali, and the prime minister of the self-declared Salvation Government — the governing body of Syria’s northwestern Idlib province that HTS controlled for years. “[Al-Golani’s] got a track record of having a technocratic government that provides minimal services,” said John Hannah, senior fellow with the Jewish Institute for National Security for America and who has served in senior foreign policy positions for both Democratic and Republican administrations. “[HTS] didn’t attack Christians and Druze and other minorities, but didn’t make them part of any democratic government, either, they were clearly second class citizens,” he continued. “But since his descent now into Damascus, all along the road, he’s been issuing proclamations to every single minority population he can find that they need to be — as long as they defect from the regime — that they’ll be protected, their property, governmental institution should be protected.” Al-Golani said he was never personally involved in acts of terrorism. In 2003, he reportedly traveled to Iraq to fight against the U.S. invasion and spent five years in an American-run prison in the country. Returning to Syria in 2011, he founded Jabhat al-Nusrah to serve as an off-shoot to the Islamic State, but later separated from the group, aligned with al Qaeda for a number of years, before declaring independence as HTS in 2016. The U.S. listed him as a specially designated national in 2013, a key sanctions designation; and in 2017, the FBI issued a $10 million reward for information on al-Golani’s whereabouts.
US debates lifting terror designation for main Syrian rebel group -Can a terrorist group change its ways? That’s the question top national security officials are pondering as they take stock of the Islamist insurgent group that led the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s toppling of Assad dealt a major blow to Iran and Russia, which both propped up the Assad regime for their own geopolitical gains. But HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, is also a U.S.-designated terror organization. Al-Golani was linked with al Qaeda for years, but cut ties with al Qaeda and denounced the group in 2016. Since then, al-Golani has embarked on a campaign to rebrand himself and HTS, the umbrella organization of formerly fractured militant groups, as a moderate force to oppose Assad. There’s a furious debate playing out in Washington over what to make of HTS, according to four current and former U.S. officials familiar with the discussions, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss internal policy deliberations. “There is a huge scramble to see if, and how, and when we can delist HTS,” said one of the current officials. Under U.S. law, the secretary of State can designate groups foreign terrorist organizations, or FTOs, if they engage in terrorism and threaten U.S. security. The FTO designation opens the group and its active supporters to sanctions and criminal prosecution. A president could decide outright to strike an organization from the list of U.S. FTOs, as U.S. law allows the secretary of State to revoke a designation at any time. But such a decision often only comes after lengthy internal deliberations among national security officials, to make no mention of the fraught politics of a move: No president wants to be seen as giving a free pass to terrorists by lifting its FTO designation prematurely. No one in Washington is mourning the downfall of Assad, a brutal dictator implicated in widespread atrocities and war crimes, nor the major setbacks his downfall means for Iran and Russia. But they’re also wondering whether al-Golani is the real moderate transitional leader he says he is, or a wolf in rebranded sheep’s clothing. Early signs are reassuring. HTS announced it is cooperating with Syria’s prime minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, to form a transitional government in what is (so far) a relatively peaceful transition since Assad’s ouster. The group also declared amnesty for all Syrian conscript soldiers and reservists and promised it wouldn’t tell women how to dress.
Taliban In Afghanistan Bad, Al-Qaeda In Syria Good --Caitlin Johnstone -- It’s pretty wild how the west went directly from “We need to occupy Afghanistan for two decades to prevent it from being taken over by the Taliban” to “Yay! Syria’s been taken over by al-Qaeda!” The IDF has moved to occupy new stretches of Syrian land in the name of protecting its safety and security in the wake of Assad’s removal, to approximately zero condemnation from the western power alliance.One of the dumbest things we are asked to believe about Israel is that the only thing it can ever do to ensure its safety and security when a danger presents itself is to grab more land. Land grabs are always the answer.So to recap: Russia invading a country in the name of protecting its security interests from perceived threats on its border = wrong, evil, worst thing ever. Israel invading a country in the name of protecting its security interests from perceived threats on its border = fine, normal, nothing to worry about. The US is considering removing Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham from its list of designated terrorist organizations following the al-Qaeda affiliate’s victory in Syria. I have said it before and I’ll say it again: “terrorist organization” is a completely arbitrary designation which is used as a tool of western narrative control to justify war and militarism. In effect it just means “disobedient population who need bombs dropped on them”. I find it hilarious how empire simps are still shrieking “ASSADIST!” at me for criticizing western regime change interventionism in Syria like that means something. Assad’s gone. They can’t claim I’m helping him stay in power anymore. This shows they were never mad at me for “supporting Assad” or any of that nonsense; they were always just mad at me for criticizing the western empire, which was all I was ever doing.Assad’s not a thing anymore. Your guys are in power now, and your beloved empire got the regime change it’s been chasing for years. You don’t get to pretend you’re sticking up for the little guy any longer. If you’re going to keep simping for the empire you’ve got to do it right out in the open now; you can no longer mask your bootlicking by hurling bizarre false accusations of treasonous loyalty toward some random middle eastern leader at anyone who criticizes the empire’s actions in Syria. You need to find different tactics for your empire apologia.I personally do not believe western interventionism in the middle east leads to positive results and peace, because I am not a newborn baby with a soft squishy head who joined the earth’s population yesterday evening.
"Terrorist Organization" Means Whatever The US Wants It To Mean Caitlin Johnstone - The US government is simultaneously (A) preparing to remove from its list of designated terrorist organizations the group which led the charge to oust Bashar al-Assad in Syria and (B) justifying Israel’s land grab in Syria by saying the nation has been taken over by terrorists.The US podium people have pivoted seamlessly from celebrating the liberation of the Syrian people in the removal of Assad to citing the fact that the nation is now overrun with terrorist factions in defense of Israel’s rapid move to militarily occupy large swathes of Syrian land while hammering Syria with hundreds of airstrikes.At a Monday press conference, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said these moves by Israel “are temporary to defend its borders” and that Assad’s ouster “potentially creates a vacuum that could have been filled by terrorist organizations that would threaten the state of Israel and would threaten civilians inside Israel.”“Every country has the right to take action against terrorist organizations,” Miller added.During a Tuesday press conference Miller further clarified the US position on Israel’s land grab, saying, “What precipitated their move into the buffer zone was the withdrawal of the Syrian armed forces, which, as I said yesterday, creates potentially a vacuum that could be filled by any one of the numerous terrorist organizations that continue to operate inside Syria that have sworn to the destruction of the state of Israel.”During the same Tuesday press conference Miller also stated that “there is no legal barrier to us speaking to a designated terrorist group” such as HTS, the group which led the run on Damascus whose leader has been an official in both ISIS and al-Qaeda.And as it happens the US government has now taken a sudden interest in removing HTS from its listing as a designated terrorist organization, withPolitico reporting that there is now “a furious debate playing out in Washington” as to whether or not the group should be removed from the list immediately. Somehow I doubt the debate is actually all that “furious”.So according to one narrative Syria has been liberated by brave freedom fighters and that’s wonderful, but according to another concurrent narrative Israel obviously needs to invade Syria because the nation has just been taken over by evil terrorists, and by yet another concurrent narrative those evil terrorists aren’t evil terrorists anymore because they’re going to be running a US puppet regime.These are the kinds of contradictions you run into when your policies are guided by the blind pursuit of planetary domination instead of by truth and morality. In reality, “terrorist organization” is a political designation, not a behavioral one. It has a lot less to do with how an organization acts and operates and a lot more to do with whether or not they advance the strategic interests of the US empire.
Blinken visits Ankara with Israel and Turkey on collision course in Syria -- Following the overthrow of the Russian/Iranian-backed regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by militias led by the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the struggle by the US, Israel and Turkey to carve up and plunder the country has accelerated. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Turkey Thursday evening after a visit to Jordan and held separate meetings with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Also Thursday, İbrahim Kalın, head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MİT), travelled to Damascus and met with HTS leader Mohammed al-Jolani (real name Ahmed Hussein al-Shara) and Syria’s newly appointed Prime Minister Mohammed Bashir. Turkey has just re-established diplomatic relations with Syria, broken off in 2012, by appointing a temporary charge d’affaires to its embassy in Damascus. This and Kalın’s visit are attempts to legitimise the HTS, which is considered a “terrorist organization” on paper, and to draw it into Ankara’s sphere of influence. After their talks with Blinken, Erdoğan and Fidan made clear that Ankara’s main concern is to prevent the Kurds from gaining official status in Syria under the leadership of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)-affiliated People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ankara demands that Washington stop supporting the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a condition for closer cooperation with its imperialist ally. After the meeting between Erdoğan and Blinken, the Directorate of Communication stated, “President Erdoğan noted that, primarily for its national security, Türkiye will take preventive measures against all terrorist organizations operating in Syria and posing a threat to Türkiye, mainly the PKK/PYD/YPG and DAESH [ISIS], adding that as the only NATO country that has engaged in close combat against DAESH, Türkiye will prevent the PKK and its extensions from taking advantage of the situation on the ground and will never allow any weakness in the fight against DAESH.” Blinken, who met with Fidan Friday morning, said afterwards, “As the (foreign) minister said, we’re very focused on Syria, very focused on the opportunity that now is before us,” adding that “We talked about how Turkey and how the United States, how other partners in the region, can support those efforts, and I think there’s broad agreement on what we would each like to see going forward.” What both Washington and Ankara agree on is deepening collaboration with their al-Qaeda-linked proxies and plundering Syria. In his remarks, Fidan said, “We discussed in detail the roles of both Türkiye and the US, as well as regional actors, and how we can cooperate. Our priorities are to stabilize Syria as soon as possible, to prevent terrorism, to prevent DAESH and PKK from dominating there. We talked about what we will do about these, our common concerns and their solutions.” The Erdoğan government has stepped up its efforts to impose the interests of the Turkish ruling class as much as possible in Syria. On November 27, following the launch of the HTS offensive, the Turkish-backed Islamist Syrian National Army (SNA, former Free Syrian Army) captured the SDF-held town of Tal Rifaat and then attacked Manbij. SDF commander Mazlum Abdi said that after the clashes they reached a ceasefire with the SNA in Manbij under US mediation. Turkish airstrikes also destroyed 12 trucks loaded with missiles, heavy weapons and ammunition, two ammunition depots and two tanks in Qamishli that had been transferred from the Syrian army to the SDF. According to reports, the new target of the SNA militias could be the city of Kobani, a major centre for Syrian Kurds on the Turkish border. With the fall of the regime, the SDF had taken control of cities such as Qamishli, Hasaka, and the oil-rich Deir ez-Zor. But after the HTS took control of Damascus, Arab tribes that had supported the SDF reportedly switched sides, and Deir ez-Zor fell to the HTS. The SDF is seeking to use its close ties with the US and the American military presence in the region as leverage to gain official status within the new regime. Speaking to BBC News Türkçe, Salih Muslim, former leader of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), said that “HTS has spoken very good words and they are waiting for it to put them into practice,” before adding, “If HTS takes one step towards us, we will take two.” The PYD, to which the YPG belongs, is a member of the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) along with the PKK.
Report: US Gave Kurds an Ultimatum To Withdraw from Manbij in North Syria - The US had to give the Kurdish-led SDF an ultimatum to withdraw from the northern Syrian city of Manbij and cede it to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), Al-Monitor reported on Wednesday.According to the report, the US brokered a ceasefire deal between the SDF and the SNA that involved the Kurds withdrawing to areas east of the Euphrates River. The SDF was violating the agreement by maintaining a hold on Manbij and was encircled by SNA fighters who were backed by Turkish air power. SNA fighters were also advancing east of the Euphrates.The report said US officials were “exasperated” by the SDF’s refusal to head to the east of the river. The US threatened that the US military would no longer protect the SDF if it didn’t comply, prompting the Kurdish force to withdraw and cede the city to the SNA, which is mainly comprised of Sunni Muslim groups.A US official said that during the battle on Monday, the SDF shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone after mistaking it for a Turkish drone.Turkey has stepped up strikes on the US-backed Kurds in northern Syria following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Ankara played a key role in the regime change as it reportedly gave the green light for the offensive launched by the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has taken Damascus.Secretary of State Antony Blinken is headed to Ankara on Friday as the US is looking to limit the Turkish-backed offensive against the Kurds. The US has about 900 troops occupying Kurdish-controlled areas of eastern Syria, which have provided support to the SDF in recent fighting against the now-deposed government.Turkey has always been unhappy about the US support for the SDF since it considers the group a wing of the PKK, a Kurdish militant group both Turkey and the US have labeled a terrorist organization. James Jeffrey, who served as a US special envoy to Syria, acknowledged the SDF was the Syrian wing of the PKK in an interview with PBS in 2018
Yemen's Houthis Attack US Destroyers and Merchant Ships in Gulf of Aden - On Tuesday, US Central Command said two US Navy destroyers and three US commercial ships came under an attack launched by Yemen’s Houthis while transiting the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, took credit for the attack, saying they targeted two US destroyers that were accompanying “supply ships.” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the attack “achieved its objectives,” while CENTCOM said the attack was “defeated. ”CENTCOM said the destroyers intercepted multiple drones and one cruise missile. “The reckless attacks resulted in no injuries and no damage to any vessels, civilians, or US Naval,” the command said. The Houthis launched a similar attack about 10 days ago.Sarea also said the Houthis had launched a drone into Israel, which hit abuilding in central Israel. “The operation, conducted with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), struck its target accurately,” Sarea said. The Israeli military said the attack caused some damage but no injuries. The US began bombing Yemen back in January in defense of Houthi attacks on Israeli shipping, which were launched in response to the genocidal war in Gaza. The US bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Houthis and only escalated the situation as the Yemeni group began targeting US shipping as a result.From 2015-2022, the US supported a Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis, which involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time. According to the UN, the war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.
US threatens to investigate Spain’s partial port denials of ships carrying arms for Gaza genocide -- Last week, reports emerged that the US Federal Maritime Commission may investigate whether Spain is “creating unfavorable conditions for maritime transport in U.S. foreign trade by denying certain vessels access to its ports.” These vessels are two container ships operated by Danish company Maersk, part of the Maritime Security Program (MSP), a fleet of commercial ships available to the US Department of Defense in cases of war. The ships were denied entry to the Spanish port of Algeciras on November 8 and 14 while en route from New York, carrying weapons destined for Israel. The FMC could impose fines of up to €2.18 billion per ship and might even ban Spanish ships from entering US ports. On May 16, the Spanish government, formed by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and its pseudo-leftist ally Sumar, announced its intention to ban ships carrying military materials for Israel from docking at Spanish ports. Washington’s threat is a clear sign that it will not tolerate any opposition to arming of Israel for the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. It comes after an Amnesty International report charged Israel with genocide, citing official figures of 44,580 killed and estimates as high as 186,000 in a study published by The Lancet. Amnesty argued this mass killing stems from genocidal intent, evident from leaders of the Israeli government down to individual soldiers. Despite this, the US and other imperialist powers continue to back Israel as part of their agenda to reshape the Middle East under imperialist control. But while US threats might suggest Madrid is blocking arms destined to Israel, the reality is that these are isolated and selective cases meant to obscure Madrid’s active cooperation in the arms trade, as well as other support for the Zionist regime. It is part of Spain’s attempt to posture as sympathetic to the Palestinians, such as by verbally recognizing a nonexistent Palestinian state. An investigation by Progressive International and the Palestinian Youth Movement, published by ElDiario.es, revealed that from May to September at least 25 ships carrying 13,000 tons of weaponry—including armored vehicles, engines, vehicle and aircraft parts, airplane tires, projectile bodies, and various military equipment—were transported from the US to Israel, stopping at Spain’s Algeciras port. This report provided undeniable evidence that, despite pledges to the contrary, the PSOE-Sumar government continues to collaborate in the genocide in Gaza. The same ElDiario.es article reported that the Maersk Denver and Maersk Seletar ships, carrying weapons, were scheduled to arrive in Algeciras in the following days. Faced with this revelation, the government decided to act to avoid being exposed. On November 7, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that both ships would not be allowed to dock in Spain. Two days earlier, in a cynical move aimed at deflecting responsibility from Sumar, its deputy Enrique Santiago—also the secretary general of the Stalinist Communist Party—submitted a document to the State Prosecutor’s Office requesting measures “regarding the arrival … of two cargo ships from the United States bound for Israel, scheduled to transit through Algeciras.” In other words, Santiago was asking the prosecutor to act against his own government in which his own party participates, with his colleagues serving as ministers. This maneuver was intended to create the illusion that Sumar was opposing the genocide when, in fact, they had done nothing in the preceding months to address the continued arrival of ships carrying weapons for Israel. The PSOE-Sumar’s cynical posturing was further exposed when it refused to discuss in parliament the confidentiality agreement signed in 2014 by Spain’s right-wing Popular Party, then in power, with Israel’s Ministry of Defense. This agreement ensures absolute secrecy in arms deals between the two countries. Nonetheless, information about the ships docking in Algeciras and their cargo is public and well-known. If PSOE and Sumar failed to act in previous months, it is because they share the same genocidal policy as the US government. They were only forced to act when their lies were exposed, and their complicity in Israel’s genocide became undeniable.
Biden Administration Announces Nearly $1 Billion in Weapons for Ukraine - On Saturday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the US would be providing Ukraine with a new weapons package worth nearly $1 billion.The package, which is worth $988 million, is being provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the US to purchase weapons for Ukraine.According to the Pentagon, the weapons package includes ammunition for the HIMARS rocket systems, drones, and “equipment, components, and spare parts to maintain, repair, and overhaul artillery systems, tanks, and armored vehicles.”Austin announced the new military aid in remarks at the Reagan National Defense Forum, where he called for the incoming administration to “build” on what the Biden administration had done.“So the baton will soon be passed. And others will decide the course ahead. And I hope that they will build on the strength that we have forged over the past four years,” Austin said.The Biden administration has been working to ship as many weapons as possible to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated.In recent months, President Biden signed off on several significant escalations in the proxy war, including supporting long-range strikes on Russian territory and the provision of widely banned anti-personnel mines to Ukraine. Biden officials have also been calling for Ukraine to lower the conscription age from 18 to 25 so younger Ukrainians are sent to fight.Biden asked Congress for an additional $24 billion to spend on the proxy war, but the request was rejected by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who said any decisions on Ukraine aid would be up to Trump.
US Disburses $20 Billion Loan for Ukraine That Will Be Repaid Using Russian Assets - On Tuesday, the US announced that it disbursed a $20 billion loan for Ukraine that will be paid back using interest earned on frozen Russian Central Bank assets, a step that marks an escalation of the Western economic war against Russia.The $20 billion is part of a total $50 billion loan being provided by the Group of Seven (G7) nations. The entire loan will be paid back using the Russian assets.“These funds — paid for by the windfall proceeds earned from Russia’s own immobilized assets — will provide Ukraine a critical infusion of support as it defends its country against an unprovoked war of aggression,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.“The $50 billion collectively being provided by the G7 through this initiative will help ensure Ukraine has the resources it needs to sustain emergency services, hospitals, and other foundations of its brave resistance,” she added.The Biden administration has been working to escalate its support for the Ukraine proxy war as much as possible before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20. Providing Ukraine with aid using Russian assets will make a peace deal more difficult since Moscow will want reimbursement for the funds.In recent weeks, President Biden has taken several steps to escalate the proxy war, including the authorization of long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory and the provision of widely-banned anti-personnel mines. On Saturday, the administration announced a new weapons package worth nearly $1 billion.
'Simply Robbery': Moscow To Retaliate After US Hands Ukraine $20BN Utilizing Russian Assets - Russia on Wednesday blasted the US disbursing a $20 billion loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets as "theft" and "simply robbery" while vowing that retaliation will soon come. On Tuesday, the Biden administration announced it disbursed the $20 billion loan for Ukraine, to eventually be paid back using interest earned on frozen Russian Central Bank assets, which has been a controversial plan long in preparation.Washington said it issued the funds as part of the bigger total $50 billion loan being provided by the Group of Seven (G7) nations.Russia's foreign ministry on Wednesday further said the move "will not go answered". It warned that it has "sufficient capacity and leverage to retaliate by seizing Western assets under its jurisdiction". In announcing the major action, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had described the following:"These funds — paid for by the windfall proceeds earned from Russia’s own immobilized assets — will provide Ukraine a critical infusion of support as it defends its country against an unprovoked war of aggression.""The $50 billion collectively being provided by the G7 through this initiative will help ensure Ukraine has the resources it needs to sustain emergency services, hospitals, and other foundations of its brave resistance," she added.This is all part of Biden and NATO allies' efforts to 'Trump proof' future aid and support to Ukraine for years to come. Trump is expected to 'probably' reduce US defense aid to Ukraine. Trump officials have warned that Kiev would see funding greatly reduced or even pulled if it is unwilling to engage Moscow seriously at the negotiating table.A key rationale of Trump's team in making the case for a necessary and quick winding down of the war is that the West must avoid nuclear confrontation or a WW3 scenario with Russia at all costs.War-weary populations across Europe and the West are also in favor of peace, all recent polling shows, and Trump has been given a clear mandate by US voters to seek a d iplomatic end to the war. Zelensky has in response said: "What is needed are concrete, strong actions that will force him [Putin] to peace, not persuasion and attempts at appeasement, which he sees as a sign of weakness and uses to his advantage."
Moscow Threatens Retaliation After Ukraine Strikes Russia With 6 US-Made ATACMS Missiles -- Moscow has announced a very serious escalation out of Ukraine on Wednesday, with defense ministry officials saying that six US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles were launched against a Russian airfield inside the country's sovereign territory.Taganrog is a Black Sea port city in southwestern Russia, and was targeted in the heavy attack. The military claimed that all six were able to be intercepted and downed before reaching their target, with two reported intercepts by a Pantsir air defense system, and the others destroyed after electronic warfare systems diverted them."Missile fragments caused injuries among personnel. There was no destruction, but two buildings in the airfield's technical area and three military vehicles sustained minor shrapnel damage. Civilian vehicles in a nearby parking lot were also damaged," the Russian Defense Ministry statement said.Apparently this damage occurred through "falling fragments of the missiles" according to the ministry, which also vowed that retaliation is coming for the strike."This attack by Western long-range weapons will not go unanswered, and appropriate measures will be taken," it added, but without specifying anything further. It appears that at least other drones or missiles which were part of the broader assault made it through Russian aerial defenses: In the early hours of Wednesday, Dec.11, multiple explosions shook the city of Taganrog in Russia’s Rostov region, regional governor Yuri Slyusar reported, describing the attack as a "missile strike." The attack, reported around 4:20 a.m., triggered air defense systems and caused at least ten explosions, local residents told the Shot Telegram channel. Eyewitnesses suggested the target might have been a military airfield, according to CHEKA-OGPU Telegram channel. It was only in September that President Vladimir Putin declared new 'red lines' for the conflict, asserting that any long-range attack on Russia with West-supplied missiles would be viewed as the as the "direct participation" of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine.
Trump Says He 'Vehemently' Disagrees With US-Backed Long-Range Missile Strikes on Russia - President-elect Donald Trump has said that he “vehemently” disagrees with the US supporting long-range missile strikes inside Russian territory, which President Biden authorized last month. “I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that?” Trump said in an interview with Time Magazine for an issue that named him Person of the Year.“We’re just escalating this war and making it worse. That should not have been allowed to be done,” Trump added. Biden took the step to support Ukrainian strikes on Russia using US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles even after Moscow made clear it would risk a nuclear escalation. Russia responded to Ukraine’s initial ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes by firing a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile known as the Oreshnik. Ukrainian forces fired more ATACMS into Russia this week, and the Russian Defense Ministry has vowed there will be another response.Trump campaigned on ending the proxy war in Ukraine but has not articulated how exactly he plans to do that. He was asked in the Time interview if he would “abandon” Ukraine and responded, “I want to reach an agreement, and the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon. You understand what that means, right?” The president-elect stressed in the interview that he was concerned with the death toll in the conflict, saying it was much higher than what’s been reported. He said the “numbers of dead young soldiers lying on fields all over the place are staggering. It’s crazy what’s taking place.”
Hungarian PM Orbán meets Trump, Musk, and Waltz --Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Monday with President-elect Trump, his incoming national security adviser and billionaire Elon Musk, who has wielded significant influence in Trump’s orbit. “USA today. The future has begun!” Orbán posted on the social platform X. “An afternoon in Mar-a-Lago with @realDonaldTrump, @elonmusk and @michaelgwaltz.” Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) is slated to serve as Trump’s national security adviser. Musk has been tasked with leading an advisory commission to slash government spending and regulations, but he has been omnipresent alongside Trump since November’s election, including during calls and meetings with world leaders.Trump spent the weekend in France for the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral following its restoration after a 2019 fire. While there, he met with French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Prince William.Following the trip, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The two sides have been fighting for nearly three years since Russian forces invaded Ukrainian territory.Monday marked the third time this year Trump has hosted Orbán at Mar-a-Lago. Orbán has drawn criticism for democratic backsliding in Hungary, but Trump frequently praised the leader on the campaign trail.Following a meeting in March, Orbán, a key ally of Russia, said he and Trump were aligned on the war in Ukraine and that Trump would not give “a single penny” to Kyiv if elected.
Trump Transition Team Considering Strikes on Iran --Strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are being seriously considered within the Donald Trump transition team, according to the Wall Street Journal. While there is no proof Tehran is trying to make a nuclear weapon, Washington and Tel Aviv are threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear energy infrastructure.“The military-strike option against nuclear facilities is now under more serious review by some members of his transition team,” the WSJexplained. “Iran’s weakened regional position and recent revelations of Tehran’s burgeoning nuclear work have turbocharged sensitive internal discussions, transition officials said.”Tel Aviv is undergoing a similar debate. “The Israel Defense Forces believes that following the weakening of Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East and the dramatic fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, there is an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities,” the Times of Israel reported on Thursday. Adding, “The Israeli Air Force has therefore continued to increase its readiness and preparations for such potential strikes in Iran.”According to WSJ, President-elect Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have recently discussed potentially attacking Iran. “Trump has told Netanyahu in recent calls that he is concerned about an Iranian nuclear breakout on his watch.” The report continues, “The president-elect wants plans that stop short of igniting a new war, particularly one that could pull in the US military.”The sources explained that the administration is considering two options. The first is bolstering American military presence in the Middle East while providing Israel with the ability to destroy Iranian nuclear sites without US assistance. The other option calls for American threats to force Tehran to make concessions at the negotiation table.Whichever option Trump chooses, he is also expected to increase sanctions on Iran given his belief that he must economically cripple Tehran.While the US intelligence community, the IAEA, the Pentagon, and Tehran all say Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, the incoming Trump administration and Tel Aviv say they are concerned the Islamic Republic will obtain a nuke. Additionally, Trump believes Tehran was behind an assassination attempt on his life.However, Trump and Netanyahu may perceive Iran as weak, given Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in Syria and Hezbollah’s concessions in its truce with Israel. Emboldened by recent events, Washington and Tel Aviv could attempt to strike Iran, believing Tehran is vulnerable.
Iranian 'mothership' isn't behind drone sightings over New Jersey, Pentagon says - Federal officials Wednesday rejected claims the mysterious drones spotted in New Jerseyare coming from an Iranian "mothership." Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., said Wednesday on Fox News that the unidentified flying objectsin his state's skies are coming from an Iranian vessel off the East Coast — a claim the Defense Department flatly denied.Drew, who is on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, said he has heard from “high sources” that Iran is controlling the mysterious objects.“Iran launched a mothership probably about a month ago that contains these drones. That mothership is off … the East Coast of the United States of America. They’ve launched drones into everything that we can see or hear,” Drew said. “And again, these are from high sources. I don’t say this lightly.”He added the drones should be “shot down,” whether they are coming from Iran or people who fly drones as a hobby. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh emphatically denied Drew’s remarks Wednesday.“There is no Iranian ship off the coast of the United States, and there’s no so-called mothership launching drones towards the United States,” she said.Singh added there is no evidence the mysterious flying objects are linked to a foreign entity or are the work of an adversary. U.S. officials, Singh said, will continue to monitor developments.Also Wednesday, Monmouth County Sheriff Shaun Golden said in a statement that New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy should declare a state of emergency and issue an executive order banning recreational drone use at night.“Residents are increasingly alarmed by the surge in drone activity after dark, raising concerns about public safety and security,” Golden said. “We cannot wait any longer. The Governor must act now, and the Air National Guard needs to step in to protect our communities. In addition, we are asking Congress to immediately pass federal legislation for state police and sheriff’s offices nationwide which would enable them to address this issue head on.”
Five things to know about the recent drone sightings in New Jersey - Reports of drone sightings in New Jersey have rattled Garden State residents in recent days, with Gov. Phil Murphy (D) saying on Monday that he is taking them “deadly seriously.”The local FBI field office in Newark last week said that they, alongside New Jersey authorities, “are asking for the public to report any information related to the recent sightings of possible drones flying in several areas along the Raritan River.”A Republican state senator called for “a limited state of emergency” over the drone sightings on Tuesday. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) wrote a letter to federal officials dated Tuesday about the drone sightings.Here’s what to know about the New Jersey drone sightings that have raised concerns among both the public and government officials:
- There are mounting reports of sightings. According to a Wednesday report from NJ.com, the drones were first spotted last month, with the majority of sightings in Hunterdon and Morris counties, which are part of the northern and central regions of the state. The outlet reported that some newer drone sighting reports have been located close to the Jersey Shore, as well as a number of northern and southern counties.A spokesperson with the Morris County Sheriff’s Office described the drones as similar to “small cars” in size, according to NJ.com. According to Walt Miller, the police chief for the southern New Jersey township of Evesham, eyewitnesses called the drones “as large as an SUV with blinking lights on them,” the outlet reported.
- New Jersey officials are expressing concern about the sightings. On Monday, New Jersey Gov. Phill Murphy (D) said he is taking unidentified drone flights in his state “deadly seriously.”“These are apparently … as I understand it, very sophisticated,” Murphy told a group of reporters.“The minute you get eyes on them, they go dark. And, you know, we’re obviously most concerned about sensitive targets and sensitive, critical infrastructure. We’ve got military assets, we’ve got utility assets, we’ve got the president-elect’s, one of his homes, here. This is something we’re taking deadly seriously,” he added. Last week, in a post on the social platform X, Murphy said he convened a briefing to “discuss reported drone activity over parts of North and Central New Jersey,” which included Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, others in the Department of Homeland Security, New Jersey government officials and members of the state’s congressional delegation.In a letter posted to X Tuesday by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), addressed to outgoing FBI DirectorChristopher Wray, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Mayorkas, the New Jersey Democrat pushed for them “to share any relevant information about these drone sightings with the public.”
- A state senator called for a ‘a limited state of emergency’ due to the drone sightings. “The State of New Jersey should issue a limited state of emergency banning all drones until the public receives an explanation regarding these multiple sightings,” state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R)said in a statement Tuesday. Bramnick said in an appearance on Fox News’s “Fox and Friends” Wednesday that he requested the limited state of emergency because “we do that in a snowstorm the day before the snow.”
- A military research center has denied being behind the drones. The Daily Record, a regional outlet, reported Tuesday that an Army base commander for Morris County’s Picatinny Arsenal military research center pushed back against the notion that the drones are coming from the base.“While the source and cause of these aircraft operating in our area remain unknown, we can confirm that they are not the result of any Picatinny Arsenal-related activities,” Lt. Col. Craig Bonham II said in a news release, according to The Daily Record.
- New Jersey isn’t the only state with drone sightings. Local newspaper The Staten Island Advance wrote Tuesday that there have now been reported drone sightings within the last few days in Staten Island, which is a borough of New York City.According to a Monday report from Philadelphia’s WPVI-TV, the station was provided with multiple reports of flying objects within Delaware and Philadelphia counties.The Hill has reached out to Murphy’s office, the FBI, the Department of Transportation and the Department of Homeland Security for comment.
Mysterious drone sightings also reported in Hudson Valley, Albany area -After mysterious drones were reported flying over parts of New Jersey in recent weeks, officials in Albany and Saratoga counties and the lower Hudson Valley said they had received several reports of drone sightings Thursday evening, sparking speculation and concern over their origin. “We have been in contact with our state and local law enforcement partners regarding this. There is no known threat to public safety at this time and we are continuing to closely monitor this situation,” Orange County Executive Steve Neuhaus said in a social media statement Thursday night.Rockland County Executive Ed Day and county Sheriff Louis Falco said there were at least four reports of drones spotted flying over Rockland County into New Jersey late Thursday evening. They urged residents to remain calm.Further north, Albany County Sheriff Craig Apple confirmed two calls came in around 8 or 9 p.m. Thursday to report drones, though he wasn’t sure of the exact location. CBS6 first reported the drones were spotted over Colonie and possibly Schenectady.“We think they’re part of that drone path over New Jersey and New York,” he said, but added it’s still not clear if these are affiliated. The Saratoga County Sheriff’s Office has also fielded reports of drone sightings, it confirmed Friday. The office encouraged residents to report any further sightings via email to sheriff@saratogacountyny.gov and to include the date, time, location, and any pictures or videos with the email.“We are actively investigating these incidents in coordination with our state and federal partners. At this time, there is no evidence to suggest that the drone sightings pose an ongoing threat,” the office wrote in a news release.
Hochul presses Biden admin for action on mysterious drones: ‘This has gone too far’ -New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) joined the growing number of figures calling on the Biden administration and lawmakers to act on the mysterious drone sightings in New Jersey and other parts of the country.“In order to allow state law enforcement to work on this issue, I am now calling on Congress to pass the Counter-UAS Authority Security, Safety, and Reauthorization Act,” Hochul wrote Saturday in a statement, referring to legislation that would expand the authority of the Justice (DOJ) and Homeland Security (DHS) departments to address threats from unmanned aerial systems, as well as additional oversight power to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).“Extending these powers to New York State and our peers is essential. Until those powers are granted to state and local officials, the Biden Administration must step in by directing additional federal law enforcement to New York and the surrounding region to ensure the safety of our critical infrastructure and our people,” she added.The pressure comes amid mounting reports of sightings in New Jersey, New York and, according to Philadelphia’s WPVI-TV, multiple reports of flying objects within Delaware and Philadelphia counties. The Pentagon on Wednesday denied that any foreign country was behind the mysterious drones that have also flown near sensitive U.S. military sites.Lawmakers in the northeastern part of the country — areas where the drones have been reportedly spotted — sent a letter Thursday to the FBI, DHS and FAA demanding a briefing on the drones.New Jersey assemblyman Mike Inganamort (R) also urged the Biden administration to take action against the uptick in drones.
The White House struggles to stop Chinese telecommunications hacks - President Joe Biden and his White House team are all hands on deck to thwart a massive Chinese hack of several U.S. telecommunications providers — but Beijing is still in a position to spy on huge swathes of Americans, a top U.S. cyber official told reporters Wednesday.The president has been briefed “several times” about the hack, and a special White House response group is meeting to discuss it on a near daily basis, Anne Neuberger, the White House’s deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, said in a call on Wednesday.The White House is also working in close cooperation with at least eight U.S. telecommunications providers that have been breached by the China-backed hacking group known as Salt Typhoon, Neuberger said — the first official confirmation of the number of affected providers in the U.S. In addition, the White House has activated a new cyber defense task force between the NSA, Pentagon, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to address the breach.Still, none of the U.S. telecommunications providers have managed to oust the Chinese hackers from their networks, Neuberger warned, which means that a large number of Americans remain vulnerable to Chinese eavesdropping.“There is a risk of ongoing compromises to communications,” Neuberger said Wednesday. “The Chinese access was broad in terms of potential access to communications of everyday Americans.”Salt Typhoon has already used its foothold inside the backbone of several telecommunications companies to sweep up unclassified communications from the phones of senior U.S. government officials, and access metadata from American phone subscribers writ large, Neuberger added, confirming earlier reports. Salt Typhoon’s surveillance targets included President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance, POLITICO has reported. POLITICO was also the first to report that Salt Typhoon accessed the cellular records of huge swathes of Americans, putting them at risk of Chinese surveillance, too.Neuberger’s comments were the latest sign that the Salt Typhoon hacks have rattled the uppermost reaches of the D.C. national security establishment. They are also one of the most candid government statements to date about the stunning hacks, which the government only acknowledged in October.On Tuesday, senior FBI and CISA officials said they first detected the intrusions in the spring, though federal agencies did not begin cooperating on their investigations until later. In November, federal investigators issued a short statement confirming that the Chinese had stolen cellular records, intercepted call and text data from select individuals and copied sensitive wiretap data from the affected companies.The government’s ongoing struggle to understand the full scope of the Chinese hacking effort appears to be a major reason the government has been so tight-lipped, however.Neuberger emphasized in the call Wednesday that the victims are all private companies, and said the hack has not just affected the U.S. but “dozens of countries” around the world, complicating response efforts.Telecoms companies, equipment makers, and cybersecurity firms need to work together because “they may see parts of the Chinese campaign in different countries and networks around the world,” she said.While she did not name any of those countries, the only publicly known victims of the hack thus far are headquartered in the U.S. They include AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Lumen. Overall, as many as 80 providers were impacted in some form, POLITICO has reported.
Senators fume over response to ‘disturbing and widespread’ Chinese hack of US telecoms - Senators are fuming over the Biden administration’s response to a recent massive Chinese government-linked hack of U.S. and global telecommunications systems, calling it the “most disturbing” breach of telecom systems in history. The breach, carried out by a group known as Salt Typhoon, involved the infiltration of dozens of telecommunications companies, the hack of phones belonging to officials including President-elect Donald Trump and potential eavesdropping on the phone calls of large swaths of the U.S. population. On Wednesday, officials from agencies including the FBI, the Federal Communications Commission and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency trekked to Capitol Hill to brief senators on the latest intelligence around the breach. Some lawmakers emerged from that briefing fuming. “There’s no accountability in anybody sitting up there,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told reporters after the briefing. “They have not told us why they didn’t catch it, what they’ve done to prevent it.” “If somebody came to my office and said, ‘Hey look, something bad happened, don’t worry, I’m responsible for it, but I’m not going to be responsible for it, and I don’t have any plan to fix it,’ what would you do? You’d fire them,” he added. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said the extent of the breach was “breathtaking,” and pushed for more information to be declassified. “I think the American people need to know the extent of the breach here, I think they will be shocked at the extent of it,” Hawley said. “I think they need to know about their text messages, their voicemail, their phone calls. It’s very bad, it’s very, very bad, and it is ongoing.” The frustration was felt across the aisle too. Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.), a former telecoms executive, took issue with these companies for leaving “gaping holes” in the security of critical systems. “I think there is huge concern, far and away the worst telecom hack, and the fact is that they are still in the systems,” Warner told reporters. Officials from CISA and the FBI briefed reporters Tuesday on the latest developments in the investigation, stressing that the agencies are working closely with telecoms groups to respond to the breach. They acknowledged that the scope of the infiltration is still not entirely clear, though they first detected the hack in the spring. “It’s the most disturbing and widespread incursion into our telecommunications systems in the history of the world, not just the country, because of how massive our telecommunications systems is,” Senate Intelligence Committee ranking member Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told reporters Wednesday. “That’s about as bad as it gets.”
China steps up retaliation against US economic warfare -- Even before Trump is inaugurated as US president and moves to hike tariffs against China—he has threatened to impose a 60 percent impost—Beijing is demonstrating it is prepared to retaliate far more powerfully than it has so far to the economic war being waged against it by the US. China moved very quickly in response to the decision of the outgoing Biden administration earlier this month to impose a new series of export controls on high-tech components. Those US measures are aimed at shackling China’s high-tech development, which President Xi Jinping has placed front and centre of the drive to develop new “high quality” productive forces. Beijing imposed restrictions on the export of critical minerals last week and this week announced an antitrust investigation into the leading US chip maker Nvidia in a move that the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) characterised as “sending a message that China won’t stand by quietly when targeted by trade and technology sanctions.” The export bans cover gallium, germanium, antimony and various compounds known as superhard materials, as well as graphite, which play a key role in the production of semi-conductors. Not only has China banned the direct export of the minerals to the US, it has also extended the ban to third countries which export to the US after acquiring the minerals from China. This is in line with measures employed by the US which has sought to prevent countries that use components containing American technology that are embodied in products from then exporting them to China. It is the first time China has banned such trans-shipment of strategic exports. In another move following the latest US bans, four major Chinese industry associations cautioned companies against buying American chips. The WSJ cited an executive from a European chip design company who said he had been receiving nervous calls from Chinese clients seeking assurances they were not American. “This is the first time private companies have been directed to cut out US chips. It is not a direct order but will have a chilling effect,” the WSJ commented. China has banned the export of so-called rare earths and critical minerals in the past. Such bans were imposed on Japan in 2010 after its coast guards arrested a Chinese fishing boat captain in waters surrounding the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea following a collision with its vessels. The immediate dispute was resolved when the fishing boat captain was released but the incident underscored the significance of the bans. Reviewing these events in an article published in October last year, the World Economic Forum said: “The embargo sent Japanese industry into panic, especially the automobile sector for which rare earths for the production of magnets were indispensable” with Japan dependent on China for 90 percent of the supply of the minerals. In response to the bans, it continued, “the prices of rare earths soared 10 times in a year following the incident.”
The National Security Angle With TikTok Is Bogus. This Is Industrial Policy -- “Let many ideas flourish as industrial policy doesn’t work.” Those are the words of the excellent Andy Kessler in his latest Wall Street Journal opinion piece. Policymakers should embrace Kessler’s logic, all the while applying it to their shameful attempt to force a TikTok divestiture.And yes, the demand from politicians (and upheld last week by the D.C. Circuit court) is industrial policy.Seriously, what else could the anti-freedom and anti-freedom of speech battering of TikTok by the U.S. political class be? It couldn’t realistically be related to how TikTok “scoops up data on its 170 million monthly users in the U.S.,” and that the latter puts it in the position “to track federal employees or to conduct blackmail or corporate espionage.” If limiting information flow about Americans were the goal, politicians would be demanding the closure of all social media sites that are popular stateside, and that possess voluminous information about their users that they already sell. In short, “China” and/or the “CCP” don’t need TikTok to gather information on the American people, its corporations, federal employees, or all three. The embarrassing treatment of TikTok similarly couldn’t be related to how “TikTok is a tool of Chinese Communist propaganda.” Sen. Tom Cotton has made the previous point, and excuses his own authoritarian actions with the communist angle. How we know this excuse is bogus can be found right inside China itself. The country is dense with American signage representing the best and brightest of U.S. corporations. Translated, the Chinese people are conducting a passionate love affair with all things American, yet we’re supposed to believe the CCP can use TikTok to convince the American people to hate America? After that, policymakers might in a moment of introspection list even one “tool” of authoritarian governments that has proven popular in a marketplace marked by so much competition. Moving on from the unrealistic to the possible, maybe the attacks on TikTok are quietly rooted in antitrust? If so, it’s easy to point out that nailbiting politicians and frightened-of-an-app pundits needn’t worry. So-called “market power” is the picture definition of ephemeral. TheWall Street Journal’s Holman Jenkins has made this point with great regularity for decades, and did so once again two weeks ago. As he put it so powerfully, “Antitrust has become perhaps government’s least useful and productive endeavor, so vastly does today’s dynamic, liquid economy differ from the economy of 1890 when the Sherman Act was passed.” Precisely. It insults TikTok not one iota to remind readers that the present in the world of commerce is a lousy indicator of the future.Change is so quick. Kessler instructs well here. In his words, “What is astounding is the rate of acceptance” of new entrants to the internet space. In particular, Kessler notes how “OpenAI’s ChatGPT had a million users within five days of its late 2022 release. Five days!” Again, the business landscape changes quickly. Kessler adds that two years after ChatGPT’s astoundingly quick rollout, it now “has 300 million weekly users.” What’s important is that the rate of acceptance with regard to ChatGPT hardly won’t stop with ChatGPT, or for that matter, TikTok. Precisely due to the speed with which users have adapted to the former, investment into the AI space has been soaring as the intrepid look for ways to build market share in what could be an enormous market. What’s true about ChatGPT is similarly true about TikTok and its leap from unknown to arguably the world’s most popular social media site. In other words, if politicians really are fearful of TikTok, then they should get out of the way. So long as its usage and value continue to soar, so will investment meant to compete away its enormous popularity.
Biden doubles tariffs on Chinese solar panel components - The Biden administration will double tariffs on certain solar panel components that are made in China, it announced Wednesday. Starting in January, imports of Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon will carry a 50 percent tariff, up from the current levy of 25 percent. Polysilicon is a type of silicon that is used to make solar panels, while wafers are the semiconductors used in the panels. In addition, the administration said it would increase tariffs on certain Chinese products made out of the mineral tungsten, which has applications in the aerospace, automotive, defense, medical, and oil and gas industries. In a written statement, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the increased tariffs would hurt China and support U.S. investments. “The tariff increases announced today will further blunt the harmful policies and practices by the People’s Republic of China,” she said. “These actions will complement the domestic investments made under the Biden-Harris Administration to promote a clean energy economy, while increasing the resilience of critical supply chains,” Tai added. The Biden administration has previously taken other steps to increase tariffs on Chinese solarand other equipment — arguing that it’s doing so in support of domestic manufacturing. More broadly, the administration has sought to make the case that climate action and job growth can be compatible, and has sought to encourage domestic manufacturing of climate-friendly energy sources. In addition, the administration has found that forced labor is used to produce Chinese polysilicon. A group representing U.S. solar manufacturing companies called for further action. “It is an important precedent that a 50% tariff will soon cover the whole solar module supply chain in China,” . “But we must go a step further to expand this approach and address the significant trade distortion that exists outside of China from Chinese-owned solar companies to fundamentally help put U.S. workers on a more level playing field,”
Senate Democrats consider tax breaks for Taiwanese companies -- Senate Democrats are considering a bill to give tax breaks to Taiwanese companies, gauging interest in using a fast-track process to pass it into law. The tax benefits for Taiwan were included as provisions in a bigger piece of tax legislation that passed the House by a wide margin earlier this year but failed to make it through the Senate over the summer. An aide for the Senate Finance Committee told The Hill that the bill was being “hotlined,” which means it could be passed by unanimous consent if no senator objects to it beforehand. There have been “no decisions made yet on a [vote by universal consent] but keeping all options open,” the aide said. The Taiwanese provisions in the law that cleared the House include reducing the rate of withholding tax on dividends and royalties from U.S. companies for Taiwanese residents and raising the tax threshold for Taiwanese companies that are also set up in the U.S. Certain types of wages for Taiwanese workers in the U.S. would also be made tax exempt, and rules could also be loosened for corporations to obtain Taiwanese residency status. The move comes ahead of the anticipated changes in U.S. trade postures by the incoming Trump administration that could have geopolitical consequences, particularly for U.S. relations with China. President-elect Trump has promised to raise tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico as soon as he gets into office, a move that could spark a trade war. Trump has pledged especially stringent new restrictions on China, such as a 60-percent tariff on importers. Taiwan, a U.S. ally that China considers part of its own territory, has been an economic flashpoint for these tensions, and China has carried out military drills in waters around the island. The U.S. position on Taiwan has long been described as one of strategic ambiguity, a stance that Trump appeared to maintain over the weekend when he declined to say whether he would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Trump lays out blueprint for mass repression, beginning with immigrants-- In his first extensive broadcast interview since winning the 2024 presidential election more than a month ago, President-elect Donald Trump outlined an agenda of mass repression against immigrants and persecution of political opponents, together with an unstinting shower of tax cuts and deregulatory actions for corporate America and his fellow billionaires. The interview, conducted by Kristen Welker of NBC News and broadcast on “Meet the Press” Sunday morning, marked a major new effort by the corporate media to “normalize” Trump’s fascist program and present him as desirous of carrying out a traditional four-year term in the White House, replete with bipartisan collaboration with the Democrats. The actual substance of what Trump said, however, belies both the fawning tone of Welker’s questions and the deliberately low-key manner in which the ex-president spoke. He called for actions on “day one” of his administration that would flout the US Constitution, free hundreds of fascist thugs who stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and begin the mass roundup of millions of immigrant workers and their families. In response to a direct question about whether he would have all 11 million undocumented migrants (the current estimated total) deported during his four-year term, Trump responded, “Well, I think you have to do it, and it’s a hard—it’s a very tough thing to do.” Trump was speaking about the scale of the police-military mobilization required, not about the suffering of millions of workers without legal immigration status. Millions of US citizens, the children of these undocumented workers, would be removed from the country as well. Asked about the estimated 4 million families with mixed immigration status, Trump said cynically that they could choose, but if the children wanted to stay with their fathers and mothers they would have to leave the country with them. He would also sign an executive order revoking birthright citizenship for children of undocumented migrants who are born in the United States. While such an executive order would violate the US Constitution, Trump declared, “Well, we’re going to have to get it changed. We’ll maybe have to go back to the people. But we have to end it. We’re the only country that has it, you know.” Abolishing birthright citizenship would effectively mean the repeal of the 14th Amendment—one of three “civil rights” amendments passed as a result of the Civil War of 1861-65. The Amendment’s birthright citizenship clause was aimed at permanently preventing the former slave states from denying the rights of citizenship to freed slaves. The effort to bar citizenship rights to those born in the United States would essentially mark a return to the anti-egalitarian “principles” underlying the Supreme Court’s 1857 decision Dred Scott v. Sandford, which denied citizenship rights to slaves.
Trump’s vow to end birthright citizenship to face legal challenges, GOP skeptics - President-elect Trump has doubled down on his vow to end birthright citizenship, a task that would likely face legal challenges as well as skepticism from within his own party. For starters, the 14th Amendment grants citizenship to those born in the U.S. As a result, most legal experts think Trump wouldn’t be able to end the right through executive order, as he has suggested on the campaign trail and during a recent interview on “Meet the Press.” Republicans including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Vivek Ramaswamy have also backed the idea of ending birthright citizenship, but for others, the legal roadblocks that would arise raise questions over if it will be popular to reverse a program that automatically grants American citizenship to those born in the U.S. regardless of ancestry. When questioned if he thinks he can get around the 14th Amendment through executive action, Trump told NBC moderator Kristen Welker, “Well, we’re going to have to get it changed. We’ll maybe have to go back to the people, but we have to end it. We’re the only country that has it, you know.” “Do you know if somebody sets a foot — just a foot, one foot, you don’t need two — on our land, ‘Congratulations you are now a citizen of the United States of America,’” Trump told NBC. “Yes, we’re going to end that, because it’s ridiculous.” Trump suggested birthright citizenship was uniquely American — which it is not. Dozens of other countries have birthright citizenship including Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and Peru, among others, according to the CIA. Some proponents of Trump’s plan say the common interpretation of the 14th Amendment is wrong, zeroing in on a qualification in the citizenship clause restricting birthright citizenship to children born in the U.S. who are “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.” That exception is traditionally interpreted to exclude only the children of foreign diplomats, foreign enemies in hostile occupation or Native American children subject to tribal laws. But those pushing to redefine it say the exception leaves out children of immigrants in the country illegally, too. Legal scholars across the ideological spectrum largely agree that the clause is unambiguous. “You can’t ‘executive order’ your way out of the Constitution,” said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “If you want to end birthright citizenship, you need to amend the Constitution, not issue an executive order.” “The 14th Amendment is clear — period, full stop,” she added. “If you are born in this country, you are a citizen.” Ilya Somin, the chair of constitutional studies at the Libertarian Cato Institute, argued in a Nov. 25 Just Security article that efforts to deny citizen rights to the U.S.-born children of immigrants would be a “blatant violation of the Fourteenth Amendment, both the text and the original meaning.”He noted that even Judge James Ho, a Trump appointee to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit with a reputation of a judicial rabble-rouser, argued in 2006 and 2015 that birthright citizenship for the children of immigrants in the country illegally is guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment.“That birthright is protected no less for children of undocumented persons than for descendants of Mayflower passengers,” Ho wrote in 2015.
Federal court blocks ACA coverage for Dreamers -- A federal court in North Dakota has blocked Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage for immigrants that came into the U.S. illegally as children, also known as “Dreamers.”U.S. District Judge Daniel M. Traynor on Monday granted Kansas, alongside 18 other states, a stay regarding a final rule from the Biden administration allowing some Dreamers access to the ACA marketplace, according to court documents. He also granted Kansas and the other states a preliminary injunction barring the federal government “enforcing the Final Rule against” them.In May, the Biden administration announced the final rule, from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) that would let active recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) enroll in a qualified or basic health plan under the ACA, as well as forms of financial assistance.DACA recipients have been considered not “lawfully present” when it comes to health care law due to prior CMS rules, resulting in some recipients to fall out of coverage.“The authority granted to CMS by the ACA is to ascertain whether an individual meets the requirements for lawful status. It by no means allows the agency to circumvent congressional authority and redefine the term “lawfully present,” Traynor said in his Monday ruling. A leader of those opposed to the final rule in the case, Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach(R), celebrated the ruling in a statement Monday.“This decision is a big win for the rule of law,” Kobach said. “Congress never intended that illegal aliens should receive Obamacare benefits. Indeed, two laws prohibit them from receiving such benefits. The Biden administration tried to break those laws. But we fought back and defeated the Biden Justice Department.”In a statement, a CMS spokesperson said the agency “is reviewing the court’s decision; however, the agency does not comment on litigation.”
Trump talks ACA, abortion pills on ‘Meet the Press’ -During the interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday night, President-elect Trump repeated claims he made on the campaign trail and gave unclear answers on future abortion restrictions and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Here are a few takeaways from his comments about health care: Trump still only has ‘concepts of a plan’ to replace Obamacare Trump spoke briefly about Obamacare, calling it “lousy health care” that is expensive for “the people” and for the country. During his presidential campaign, Trump said he had a “concept of a plan” to replace Obamacare, but he has yet to give any updates on that potential plan. NBC’s Kristen Welker asked Trump if he finally has a fully developed plan to replace the program, he replied that he still only has “concepts of a plan that would be better” and doesn’t know when he will have a full one. He refused to commit to keep abortion pills legal Trump repeatedly took credit for the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade during his reelection campaign while also punting responsibility on future abortion legislation to states. This confusing messaging on abortion continued during “Meet the Press” when Welker asked if he planned to restrict the availability of abortion pills once in office. Trump said that he did not have plans to restrict abortion pills but also acknowledged that “things change.” “I’ll probably stay with exactly what I’ve been saying for the last two years. And the answer is no,” he said. “I mean … things change. I think they change. I hate to go on shows like Joe Biden, ‘I’m not going to give my son a pardon. I will not under any circumstances give him a pardon.’ I watched this and I always knew he was going to give him a pardon,” Trump said. He suggested Kennedy will investigate vaccine-autism link During the interview, Trump suggested that he is open to his pick for the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, investigating a long-debunked link between childhood vaccines and autism. “When you look at some of the problems, when you look at what’s going on with disease and sickness in our country, something’s wrong,” Trump said. “I think somebody has to find out. If you go back 25 years ago, you had very little autism. Now you have it,” he said.
CBO: Not extending IRA subsidies . . .CBO: Not extending IRA subsidies will cause 3.8M to lose coverage, ~7.9% avg *additional* premium hike | ACA Signups - Not that this should surprise anyone, but it’s good to have the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) formally chime in: Re: The Effects of Not Extending the Expanded Premium Tax Credits for the Number of Uninsured People and the Growth in Premiums.
Dear Chairman Wyden, Ranking Member Neal, Senator Shaheen, and Congresswoman Underwood: You have asked the Congressional Budget Office to discuss the effects on health insurance coverage and premiums that will result from not extending—either for one year or permanently—the expanded premium tax credit structure provided in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA, Public Law 117-2).ARPA reduced the maximum amount eligible enrollees must contribute toward premiums for health insurance purchased through the marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act, and it extended eligibility to people whose income is above 400 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL). Those provisions were extended through calendar year 2025 in the 2022 reconciliation act (P.L. 117-169).CBO expects that not extending the credit will increase the number of people without health insurance and raise the average gross benchmark premiums for plans purchased through the marketplaces.The premium tax credit is an advanceable, refundable credit that lowers the out-of-pocket cost of health insurance premiums for people who obtain insurance through the marketplaces. 1 The credit is calculated as the difference between the benchmark premium (that is, the premium for the second-lowest-cost silver plan available in a region) and a maximum contribution per household, calculated as a percentage of household income and adjusted over time.Until 2021, the premium tax credit was available to people who met the following criteria:
- Their modified adjusted gross income was between 100 percent and 400 percent of the FPL,
- They were lawfully present in the United States,
- They were not eligible for public coverage, such as Medicaid, and
- They did not have an affordable offer of employment-based coverage.
For 2021 and 2022, ARPA expanded eligibility to include enrollees whose income was above 400 percent of the FPL and lowered the maximum household contribution. The 2022 reconciliation act extended those provisions through calendar year 2025.CBO estimates that, relative to extending the tax credits, not extending them—either for a year or permanently—will increase the number of people without health insurance. The agency expects some people will exit the marketplaces and become uninsured because of higher out-of-pocket costs for health insurance premiums.Without an extension through 2026, CBO estimates, the number of people without insurance will rise by 2.2 million in that year. Without a permanent extension, CBO estimates, the number of uninsured people will rise by 2.2 million in 2026, by 3.7 million in 2027, and by 3.8 million, on average, in each year over the 2026-2034 period. (The initial increase is significantly smaller because CBO expects that some people will remain temporarily enrolled after the expanded credits expire at the end of 2025. CBO assumes enrollees would need time to fully respond to the expiration, for example, because of automatic renewal policies.)CBO estimates that, relative to extending the premium tax credits, not extending them—either for a year or permanently—will lead to higher gross benchmark premiums, on average, in marketplace plans. (Those premiums reflect the amount before the tax credits are accounted for.) CBO expects that healthier-than-average people will exit the marketplaces if the expanded credits are no longer available and, in response, insurers will raise premiums for the remaining enrollees.Without an extension through 2026, CBO estimates, gross benchmark premiums will increase by 4.3 percent, on average, for that year. Without a permanent extension, CBO estimates, gross benchmark premiums will increase by 4.3 percent in 2026, by 7.7 percent in 2027, and by 7.9 percent, on average, over the 2026-2034 period. (Similar to the effects on the uninsured population, the initial increase is significantly smaller because some people will remain temporarily enrolled.)
HHS secretary extends duration for COVID PREP Act declaration -- US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra today signed the 12th amendment to the declaration under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act (PREP) Act for COVID-19 countermeasures, a step that provides liability immunity through December 31, 2029.The declaration provides immunity, except for willful misconduct, for certain claims, including loss caused by or related to administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats, or conditions, according to information from the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), which is part of HHS. The immunity applies to situations deemed by the HHS secretary as a present or credible risk of a future public health emergency. It also applies to groups or individuals involved in development, production, testing, distribution, and administration of countermeasures.The PREP Act was enacted in 2005 to help protect pharmaceutical companies from financial risk in the event of a declared public health emergency. The act also provides funding for pandemic influenza preparedness. ASPR notes that the PREP Act declaration is different from and not dependent on other emergency declarations. Similar PREP Act declarations are currently in effect for countermeasures against a range of other biological or chemical threats, including mpox and other orthopox viruses, viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola, nerve agents and insecticides, Zika virus, pandemic flu, anthrax, acute radiation syndrome, and botulinum toxin.
House Republican Mark Alford eyes Medicare, Social Security for DOGE cuts -- Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) is floating Medicare and Social Security as potential areas of focus for President-elect Trump’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Alford was pressed about potential cost-cutting recommendations by DOGE during his Monday appearance on Fox Business Network’s “Mornings With Maria.” The congressman noted, in response, that GOP members recently sat down with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the duo Trump tasked to head up the DOGE effort, to discuss ideas “to cut our budget.” “We all agree this is an unsustainable area that we’re in right now — almost $36 trillion in debt, and we are spending more on the interest on our debt than we are going to spend on the National Defense Authorization Act this year,” he said. “And so we’ve got to right the ship, and it’s going to mean cuts. It’s going to mean cuts to the 24 percent of the discretionary spending that we have, and it’s also going to mean looking long-term at the front end of some programs like Social Security and Medicare,” Alford continued. The Missouri Republican added that doesn’t mean “taking anyone off of what they paid into so far,” but went on to say, “there is some waste, abuse and fraud in Medicare that we can take those numbers back and add to our general coffers and our treasury.” “And on the front end on Social Security, I think there’s a way, when people are living longer, they’re retiring later, then on the front end we can move that retirement age back a little bit,” he said. The Hill has reached out to Alford’s office for further comment. There is much speculation around what programs could be targeted for cuts as part of the effort being led by Musk and Ramaswamy.In a recent sit-down with Axios at the Aspen Security Forum, Ramaswamy said DOGE wouldseek to root out waste in the entitlement programs, but he put the onus of potential cuts on Congress, saying it’s “a policy decision that belongs to the voters.”
Schumer says Senate will vote on Social Security changes ==Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Wednesday he’s “doing everything” he can to try to pass legislation that would enact some Social Security before Congress ushers in a new class next month. Schumer said at a rally the Senate “is going to take action on the Social Security,” telling union members, “you’re going to find out which senators are with you and which are [against] you.” “I got all my Democrats lined up to support it. I want you to work. We need 15 Republicans. Let’s get them. We’re going to have the vote,” he continued. The Democratic leader also posted online to support the legislation, dubbed the Social Security Fairness Act, later on Wednesday. “In America, there’s a basic promise that if you work hard all your life, play by the rules and contribute year after year, then you deserve a secure retirement! That’s why I am doing everything I can to pass the Social Security Fairness Act,” he wrote on the social platform X. “And the Senate GOP needs to join us.” The Hill has reached out to Schumer’s office for a potential timeline as to when Congress would take action on the measure or how. Its supporters have expressed confidence that the bill, which passed the House with overwhelming bipartisan support weeks back, would sail through the Senate with bipartisan support. But Congress is on a tight time crunch as it stares down a Dec. 20 cutoff date to prevent a government shutdown. The Hill asked Schumer’s office whether the plan is to attach the bill to the expected stopgap funding bill that leaders are crafting to address next week’s deadline. If passed, the bill would repeal the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) — rules that backers say have led to unfair reductions in benefits for some who have worked in public service. However, experts say the tax rules are aimed at preventing people who have worked much of their careers in public service from collecting both their pensions and relatively higher Social Security payouts. The GPO also leads to reductions in benefits for the spouses that receive government pensions. Some conservatives have also raised concerns about the projected cost of the legislation. The Congressional Budget Office estimated earlier this year that the bill could cost upward of $190 billion over a decade.
Biden's nursing home staffing rule faces Republican repeal threat - Republicans are expected to rescind the Biden administration’s contentious nursing home staffing rule before it is set to take effect. The move would come as a relief for the nursing home industry, which has argued the mandate doesn’t appropriately address current workforce challenges. But consumer advocates and public health experts who have fought to protect the rule fear repealing it will harm residents and long-term care facility workers alike. More than 200,000 nursing home and long-term care residents died during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the spread of the virus and resulting deaths linked to staffing shortages. In response, the Biden administration proposed three reforms to nursing homes, including setting a national minimum staffing requirement. As part of the rule establishing that requirement, which was finalized earlier this year, nursing homes would be required to provide every resident with at least 3.48 hours of nursing care a day, including at least 0.55 hours of care from a registered nurse and 2.45 hours of care from a nurse aide. It also would require nursing homes to have a registered nurse on site 24 hours a day, seven days a week to ensure that critical care can be given to residents at any time. The rule has faced bipartisan opposition, with Republicans pushing particularly hard against the staffing mandate. Lawmakers in both the House and Senate introduced joint resolutions under the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to overturn the rule in the months after it was finalized. “Severe workforce and nursing shortages have already hampered access to care. The Biden administration’s rule would only make it worse,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), ranking member of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, said in statement after co-sponsoring the Senate measure introduced by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Joe Manchin(I-W.Va.). “We are pushing to ensure seniors can rest easy knowing they can access quality care when they need it.” Neither of the resolutions has passed, and the rule is currently set to take full effect for urban facilities in 2027 and for rural nursing homes in 2029. GOP lawmakers proposed fully repealing the rule as part of a preliminary offer for health care policies to be added to the continuing resolution Congress is working to pass by Dec. 20 to avert a government shutdown. And there are multiple ways it could be blocked from being implemented or undone entirely under the incoming Trump administration. Lawmakers in the House and Senate, both of which will soon be controlled by narrow GOP majorities, could pass legislation like the Midnight Rules Relief Act, which would amend the CRA to allow Congress to overturn federal regulations enacted during the final year of the current administration instead of the current 60-day look-back period, according to Leading Age, a nursing home industry group. Congressional lawmakers could also use the budget and appropriation process to stop the implementation of the rule. On top of this, the Trump administration could issue a new rule to roll the current one back or eliminate it, according to health policy nonprofit KFF. “This would have to go through the rulemaking process but could ultimately undo the provisions in the rule,” said Priya Chidambaram, senior policy manager on Medicaid and the uninsured at KFF. Beyond the incoming Republican trifecta, the court battles currently playing out over the rule also provide a potential avenue for it to be overturned. Its defeat would mark a victory for the nursing home industry, which has urged Republican lawmakers — along with some Democrats — to scrap the rule, arguing that it sets an impossible, and pricey, standard for facilities to meet that will ultimately worsen care for residents and cause closures.Instead, nursing home industry groups like the American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living (ACHA/NCAL) have called for “targeted investments” to increase the long-term care workforce. One proposed strategy to help attract more caregivers to the profession is to offer financial assistance for current or future caregivers as well as training and educational opportunities, according to the group’s website. “Nursing homes will struggle to find qualified caregivers and be forced to limit admissions, downsize, or close altogether,” a spokesperson for the AHCA/NCAL wrote in an email to The Hill. The organization was one of two industry groups that filed a lawsuit earlier this year in an attempt to block the rule. Less than 20 percent of nursing facilities in the country currently meet all three of the minimum staffing requirements in the rule, according to an analysis from KFF. And most of the facilities that are not meeting those requirements are for-profit nursing homes or long-term care facilities. According to the analysis, 11 percent of for-profit facilities can meet the staffing minimums, while 41 percent of nonprofits and 39 percent of government facilities can. The AHCA/NCAL estimates that the nursing home industry would need to hire roughly 100,000 more nurses and nursing aides to ensure that every facility meets all three of the rule’s requirements. That bump in staffing would cost $6.5 billion a year, the organization said. The federal government, meanwhile, estimates the cost of implementing the final rule would be$43 billion over 10 years. But however costly or “illogical” opponents of the rule believe it to be, labor unions, consumer advocates and public health experts have contended it would ultimately help improve the health and safety of nursing home residents and staff. “We have minimum staffing standards for doggy day cares, we have minimum staffing standards for child care centers,” said Sam Brooks, director of public policy at the National Consumer Voice for Quality Long-Term Care. “It’s absurd to think that this is some burden that is going to undo the industry.”
Feds race to ink union deals that last beyond Trump - Federal employees in environmental and energy agencies are racing to lock in or extend union contracts in the waning days of President Joe Biden’s term with hopes of shielding employees from the incoming Trump administration. Recently finalized union agreements and others still in the works would cement telework and other benefits as President-elect Donald Trump and his supporters aim to push workers back into the office five days per week and make it easier to fire government employees. The lame-duck union contract moves have already drawn scrutiny from Trump’s team and members of Congress, and experts predict the incoming president will attempt to test their durability. Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the leaders of Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, has already publicly complained about federal employees extending their collective bargaining agreements to last beyond the incoming administration. Unions representing workers at EPA and the Interior Department are among those who have recently approved agreements or are working with the Biden team to complete or extend their contracts. EPA’s largest union is pressing the Biden administration to revise their existing collective bargaining agreement to last beyond the second Trump administration. Union members at the Bureau of Land Management are scrambling to finalize their collective bargaining agreements. And unions representing staffers at the National Park Service and EPA headquarters ratified collective bargaining agreements in the wake of the November presidential election. “We are asking Biden’s EPA to extend our contract because we anticipate a much better atmosphere for contract talks after the second Trump administration leaves office,” Nicole Cantello, president of American Federation of Government Employees Local 704, which represents EPA Region 5 employees, told E&E News. Cantello continued, “As was shown during the first go-round, Trump proved the most hostile president to federal unions since they gained the right to collectively bargain in 1962.”
Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema block Democratic control of NLRB - The Senate on Wednesday blocked Lauren McFerran’s renomination to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), opening the door for Republican control of the board starting next year under President-elect Trump. Senators voted 49 to 50 against a five-year term for McFerran, the NLRB’s chair, with Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) voting with almost every Senate Republican to block it. Sen. Roger Marshall (Kan.) was the lone Republican who did not vote. Reconfirming McFerran would have locked in a Democratic advantage on the NLRB. Her term is up next week. “It is deeply disappointing, a direct attack on working people, and incredibly troubling that this highly qualified nominee — with a proven track record of protecting worker rights — did not have the votes,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said. Short of multiple absences on the GOP side, Democrats needed either Manchin or Sinema to vote with them, along with a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Harris, to get McFerran across the finish line. Including McFerran, the board sits at three Democrats and one Republican, with one GOP vacancy. Trump and Republicans will now have the ability to confirm two nominees to the board, giving them a one-seat advantage at that time. The news will have major repercussions for big business and labor unions, as the board has a major say in settling disputes between those two parties.
Senate Democrats livid with exiting Sinema, Manchin: 'Pathetic' - Senate Democrats were livid after Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), two longtime members of their caucus, voted Wednesday to block President Biden’s nominee, Lauren McFerran, to serve another five-year term on the National Labor Relations Board. Senate Democrats blasted their votes to sink Biden’s nominee and hand Republicans a major victory as “pathetic” and “disappointing.” Some angry Democratic senators went even further by saying they’ll be happy when both Sinema and Manchin are finally out of the Senate next year. “I think people are not sorry to see them go,” said one Democratic senator, who requested anonymity to discuss the lingering resentments over Sinema’s and Manchin’s habit of bucking the party. Had either Sinema or Manchin voted yes, the nominee would have likely passed 50 to 49 and given Democrats a majority on the agency tasked with safeguarding employees’ rights to organize until 2026. Some Democrats thought Sinema might miss the vote as she was absent from floor votes on Monday and Tuesday, while Manchin was off campus during the vote, giving them hope that they might be able to slip McFerran through. But both Sinema and Manchin came back to sink the nominee, leaving Democratic colleagues furious. “Pathetic,” fumed Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) when asked about Sinema’s and Manchin’s opposition to the nominee. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) called their votes “disappointing.” “There’s a tradition of having a balance on that board and it’s important, so it’s disappointing they weren’t able to get that done,” she said of the labor relations board. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) declared their “no” votes would hurt workers across the country. “Millions of working people across the country will pay the price for their actions,” she said. Another Democratic senator called the vote “a parting shot” from Sinema and Manchin after four long years of clashing with the Biden administration on everything ranging from prescription drug pricing reforms to tax policy, the federal minimum wage and Senate filibuster reform. Some angry Senate Democrats saw it as a fitting “coda” to the maverick senators’ careers after they thwarted major elements of Biden’s agenda in 2021 and 2022. “Overall, I think people are happy to see them move on,”
Supreme Court declines to block Biden coal waste rule - The Supreme Court has declined to halt a Biden administration rule that seeks to prevent legacy toxic waste from now-shuttered coal plants from leaking out and contaminating nearby groundwater. In a brief order, the high court said it would deny an emergency request from the East Kentucky Power Cooperative to temporarily block the rule from taking effect while underlying litigation against it plays out. The Supreme Court did not offer an explanation for its rejection of the power cooperative’s petition. No dissents were noted. The court’s move does not necessarily mean that the Supreme Court’s justices believe the rule is permissible; it just means they are not ready to block it at this stage — before lower courts hear challenges to it. The rule in question applies to waste that’s also known as “coal ash” — which contains dangerous substances like mercury and arsenic. It requires coal plants that closed before October 19, 2015, to take steps to prevent coal ash from leaking out of “ponds” where it is stored. Asking the court to halt the rule, the East Kentucky co-op argued that it would suffer from “unrecoverable compliance costs” if the rule is not halted.
Biden admin moves to block mining in N.M. - - The Biden administration on Thursday moved to temporarily protect thousands of acres of public land along the Pecos River in New Mexico from a mining boom taking hold across the West. Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland initiated a two-year withdrawal of about 165,000 acres in the Upper Pecos watershed in Santa Fe, New Mexico, from new mining claims and the issuance of new federal mineral leases, subject to valid existing rights. The agency’s move responds to a growing push among Democrats in the Land of Enchantment for permanent protection in a part of the state with critical water resources tied to tourism, agriculture and biodiversity. Earlier this month, Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico and other Democrats in the state — including Sen. Ben Ray Luján and Reps. Teresa Leger Fernandez, Melanie Stansbury and Gabe Vasquez — called on the Forest Service to complete the initial steps of the mineral withdrawal process in the Upper Pecos Watershed, warning that the area was vulnerable to mining and mine pollution.They pointed to incidents in the past that have damaged the river, including when a closed mine spilled toxic waste into the Pecos in 1991, killing fish along an 11-mile stretch, triggering a costly, time-consuming cleanup that scarred the river.While the agency’s protects are temporary, Congress can impose permanent protections. Last year, Heinrich, Luján, and Leger Fernandez introduced the Pecos Watershed Protection Act to protect portions of the Pecos Watershed in northern New Mexico from all mineral development.. Heinrich called the temporary protection a “major victory.” “The Upper Pecos Watershed has an unfortunate history of poorly managed mining and development projects that have put New Mexicans and our ways of life and cultures at risk,” he said. “While we continue pressing our colleagues in Congress to pass our Pecos Watershed Protection Act to ensure permanent protection from harmful mining operations, we urge the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service to move forward with longer-term administrative protections. I urge them to schedule the required public meeting on this administrative protection proposal immediately.” The agency’s move drew immediate praise from Trout Unlimited, which has long called for protecting the headwaters of the Pecos River. The area has emerged as a focal point for conservation groups in the state since a mining company first showed interest in the area in 2019.
Cassidy moves to sell Republicans on carbon tariff pitch -Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy is making his hardest sell yet on conservative legislation linking climate action with trade policy.In a bid to build support for his proposal even before the start of the next Congress, the Cassidy on Wednesday unveiled a slimmed-down, 20-page “discussion draft” version of his year-old, 100-page “Foreign Pollution Fee Act.”The incoming GOP governing trifecta will be working fast to put together the contours of two budget reconciliation packages, and Cassidy believes his bill could be a prime candidate for inclusion.“It’s consistent with what the Trump administration wants to do,” Cassidy told reporters on Wednesday. “It could actually raise revenue for a reconciliation bill, and so therefore we want to get it more into the discussion now.”At its core, the purpose of the retooled “Foreign Pollution Fee Act” remains the same as the original: Leverage data showing that the United States produces certain materials “cleaner” than foreign adversaries — namely China — and impose a fee on certain imports.The fee would still only affect foreign products, continuing to ignore the argument from many Democrats and advocates that a domestic price on carbon is necessary for any new trade policy to meet compliance with the World Trade Organization.One major change includes a more streamlined system for imposing the new fees — a structure that is still being finalized by Cassidy’s office.The new language would significantly narrow down the list of foreign-made products that would be subject to an import fee. The original bill included energy imports like oil, natural gas, hydrogen, minerals, solar panels and wind turbines. So-called “covered products” in the new bill would include only aluminum, cement, glass, iron, fertilizer and steel.The decision to omit fossil fuels strikes some experts as counterproductive if one of the bill’s goals is to, according to a press release, “reward investments in decarbonization.” “It should cover as many products as possible … if the genuine goal is to address climate change,” said Shuting Pomerleau, director of Energy and Environmental Policy at the center-right group American Action Forum, who speculated a reason oil and gas were removed from the list was the fact that Cassidy’s home state is “a big fossil fuel-producing state.” George David Banks, a former Trump administration official who is now a conservative climate adviser, said the reason for the winnowed-down list was obvious. “It’s really hard to cover products that don’t want to be covered, or covered products that want to be covered but aren’t willing to endorse the bill,” he explained.“When you’re pulling together some sort of policy like this, you need to be really careful about how you spend your political capital, and if you include an industry that does not want to be covered — wow.” One such industry is the domestic oil refiners, who could see their supply of crude oil and petroleum affected if imported oil and petroleum are levied with a fee under Cassidy’s bill. Refiners were among those who lobbied hard earlier this year against separate bipartisan, bicameral legislation — the “Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emissions Intensity and Transparency (PROVE IT) Act” — which would call for a study of the carbon intensity of nearly three dozen industrial products made the U.S. in anticipation for being slapped with carbon tariffs in the coming months by the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Making a $1B investment in the US? Trump pledges expedited permits — but there are hurdles - (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump is promising expedited federal permits forenergy projects and other construction worth more than $1 billion. But like other Trump plans, the idea is likely to run into regulatory and legislative hurdles, including a landmark law that requires federal agencies to consider the environmental impact before deciding on major projects. In a post on his Truth Social site Tuesday, Trump said anyone making a $1 billion investment in the United States “will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental approvals.” While Trump did not specify who would be eligible for accelerated approvals, dozens of energy projects proposed nationwide, from natural gas pipelines and export terminals to solar farms and offshore wind turbines, meet the billion-dollar criteria. Environmental groups slammed the proposal, calling it illegal on its face and a clear violation of the National Environmental Policy Act, a 54-year-old law that requires federal agencies to study the potential environmental impact of proposed actions and consider alternatives. “Trump is unabashedly and literally offering to sell out America to the highest corporate bidder,'' said Lena Moffitt, executive director of Evergreen Action, an environmental group. She said the plan was “obviously illegal” and another example of Trump “putting special interests and corporate polluters in the driver’s seat, which would result in more pollution, higher costs and fewer energy choices for the American people.” Alexandra Adams, chief policy advocacy officer at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said Trump should be careful what he wishes for. “What if someone wants to build a waste incinerator next to Mar-a-Lago or a coal mine next to Bedminster golf course?" she asked, referring to Trump's Florida home and New Jersey golf club, respectively. “There’s a reason Congress requires the government to take a hard look at community impacts to make sure we don’t greenlight projects that do more harm than good. Cheerleading on social media doesn’t change that reality,” Adams said. Energy analyst Kevin Book said Trump's post showed his usual flair for showmanship but said there was a real concern underlying it: a bipartisan push for permitting reform to speed up major environmental projects that now take years to win approval. “The substance here is he is really serious about trying to get permitting reform done," said Book, managing partner at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington research firm. “Permitting delays are an impediment in many sectors — including energy — and there are multiple billion-dollar investments waiting for permitting reform," Book said. A bipartisan plan championed by Senate Energy Committee Chairman Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the committee's top Republican, would speed up permitting for major energy and mineral projects, but its chances are uncertain in the final few weeks of the current Congress. Their plan would boost energy projects of all types, bringing down prices, creating domestic jobs and allowing the U.S. to continue as a global energy leader, Barrasso and Manchin say. Critics say the bill would open major expanses of public lands and waters for oil and gas drilling and gut executive and judicial review. “Checking off wish lists for oil, gas and mining companies is not permitting reform,” said Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona, the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. He called the bill “a dirty deal” that would exempt some oil and gas drilling projects from federal review and “let mining companies dump even more toxic waste on our public lands.”
Could rising natural gas prices derail Trump’s energy agenda? - President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to cut energy costs for average Americans is already hitting a major hurdle — not from the renewables he blasted on the campaign trail but from the fossil fuels he pledged to “drill, baby, drill.” New forecasts show the price of natural gas is set to jump in the coming years despite record-high U.S. production. The projections are driven by dramatic increases in demand and too few pipelines to transport the product.Those market dynamics could cause the costs of heating U.S. homes and manufacturing goods to spike in the coming years.“We expect prices to rise substantially,” said Paul Cicio, president of the trade association Industrial Energy Consumers of America. “It’s inflationary on all the products we produce, from consumer goods to industrial goods and national defense goods.”Election observers say inflation was a major reason Trump won at the polls in early November. While stumping for a second term, Trump and his Republican allies slammed Democrats for rising prices, pointing to a rapid increase in the price of electricity under President Joe Biden.Trump vowed to cut U.S. energy bills by 50 percent in just 12 months. Some experts say that’s all but impossible.While wind and solar prices are decreasing annually, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the price of natural gas has ticked up since the election to above $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Gas prices had fallen to less than a $1.50 per MMBtu earlier in 2024, according to EIA, the data-crunching branch of the Department of Energy. The data shows gas consumption outstripping supply, a key market dynamic that often leads to higher prices.On Tuesday, EIA said it expects the average U.S. benchmark spot gas price to rise from a little above $2 per MMBtu in November to about $3 per MMBtu for the rest of the winter heating season. EIA has predicted that the price of natural gas in the U.S. will average $3 for all of 2025, which would be a roughly 36 percent increase from 2024’s level.New forecasts from the law firm Haynes Boone show U.S. gas prices reaching about $3.20 per MMBtu in 2026, at which point they plateau for the rest of the decade, even as crude oil prices fall from current levels. That forecast is a slightly lower price than the firm projected in the spring.A spike would fly in the face of Trump’s pledge. And yet, energy experts say the forecasts are not surprising.“The industry has shown a remarkable ability to produce more gas on demand. How far that can go? We don’t know,” said Paul Bledsoe, a lecturer at American University’s Center for Environmental Policy and a Clinton-era White House veteran. “It looks like we’re about to enter of period of increased export and domestic demand.”Demand for natural gas is likely to balloon under Trump, based in large part on liquefied natural gas exports and artificial intelligence data centers that demand a lot of energy. Natural gas is already the most popular way to power homes and businesses in the U.S.That demand creates faces a “real challenge for the industry to keep prices low,” Bledsoe said.
‘Bridge or two too far’: Top Dem throws cold water on permitting - A key Democrat is balking at a last-gasp effort to overhaul the nation’s energy permitting laws.Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper, who is retiring and wants environmental protection to be central to his legacy, is objecting to House Republican demands to retool the National Environmental Policy Act — a 1970 law Democrats have long deemed sacrosanct.“I think they’ve gone a bridge or two too far,” the Delaware Democrat said Monday of House Republican asks. Nonetheless, he said, “We’re going to keep talking.”Asked what changes he would be OK with, Carper said, “Not as many as my friends in the House would like to make.”Those concerns — no doubt shared by many Democrats — complicate a bipartisan permitting and transmission deal being pushed by Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).Proponents want to attach the package to a must-pass bill by the end of the year. But negotiators are running short on both time and legislative vehicles before Congress is set to adjourn next week.Despite Carper’s hesitance, some Democrats seemed willing to swallow at least some Republican demands.“I think we should all keep our eye on the fact that we need to get to yes or no faster. … Permitting reform is really important if we are serious about our climate goals,” said Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Manchin’s likely successor as top Democrat on ENR. He also expressed frustration that a deal remains elusive. “I’ve been in a number of these conversations and I think that both sides have ruined the compromise,” he said. At issue is the package from Manchin and Barrasso, the “Energy Permitting Reform Act” S. 4753, which includes a mix of benefits for the oil and gas industry and provisions to more quickly build large scale power lines. That latter detail has elicited concern from House Energy and Commerce Republicans because it would embolden federal regulators over state planners.House Majority Leader Steve Scalise threw also cold water on the idea of a deal in the next week and a half, telling POLITICO’s E&E News on Tuesday, “There’s a lot of negotiations, but there has got to be real permitting reform beyond what we’ve seen so far.”
Supreme Court to hear case that could restrict bedrock environmental law - The Supreme Court will hear arguments Tuesday in a case that could reduce the scope of one of the nation’s bedrock environmental laws.The case deals with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which mandates that the government consider the environmental impacts of its actions before moving ahead with them. The court will weigh whether upstream and downstream impacts from a project should be considered as part of that process. The case could result in the court’s conservative majority significantly limiting which environmental impacts need to be evaluated in federal decisions.Environmental groups warn such a decision could pose risks for both the environment and public health.Sam Sankar, senior vice president for programs at Earthjustice, told reporters last week that the court could implement “a radical restriction of the way that the government evaluates the environmental impacts of its major decisions.”If it does so, he said, “the government will make decisions with far less information about environmental impacts and based on the history of environmental law, that will inevitably lead to more pollution, more health impacts, more loss of biodiversity and greater injuries to climate.”However, industry sees the potential limitation of the law’s scope as a way to limit costly and time-consuming litigation. “While you are litigating … it just increases the cost of building infrastructure,” said Joan Dreskin, general counsel for the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, which represents gas pipeline companies. “It increases the cost in your borrowing rates because it’s seen as risky by your investors,” she said. “So it is delaying much needed infrastructure that the authorizing federal agency has already determined to be in the public convenience and necessity.”The particular case going before the court deals with a proposed railway line that would deliver crude oil produced in the Uinta Basin in Utah to refineries where it can be made into usable fuel. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of environmental groups and a Colorado county who argued that a government environmental study of the railway incorrectly ignored the impacts of both producing the oil that would be transported and refining it later on.The appeals court decision said that the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, which performed the environmental study, “is not allowed ‘to shirk [its] responsibilities under NEPA by labeling’ these reasonably foreseeable upstream and downstream ‘environmental effects as crystal ball inquiry.’”However, the railway company and a group of Utah counties challenged that decision, arguing that upstream and downstream impacts should not be considered. They also wrote in their petition that an agency should only weigh “the proximate effects of the actions over which it has regulatory authority” rather than consider any “reasonably foreseeable” impact. “Boundless NEPA review hurts project proponents and the public too. The time and expense of environmental review is a barrier to all kinds of new projects — including clean energy projects — that prevents some of them from ever getting off the ground,” they wrote. They will get their day in court on Tuesday after the high court agreed to take their case. Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch has recused himself following scrutiny of his ties to an oil billionaire whose company filed a brief in the case saying it would be impacted by the outcome. The high court’s other eight justices are set to consider the case. The case is expected to be particularly impactful for fossil fuel infrastructure and projects — as politicians have long debated, for example, whether and how to consider the climate impacts of the eventual use of these fuels when deciding whether to approve drilling and mining. However, it also could go beyond that to impact numerous types of government decisions. “The clearest analogs are certainly to other types of fossil fuel infrastructure, but the implications are wider-ranging,” said Bridget Pals, an attorney at New York University’s Institute for Policy Integrity. While it’s not entirely clear which way the court will rule, in recent years the conservative majority has moved to curtail the scope of environmental laws, particularly those related to protections from climate change and water pollution.
Joe Manchin, Peter Welch unveil bill placing term limits on Supreme Court -- West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (I) and Vermont Sen. Peter Welch (D) have introduced a resolution to impose 18-year term limits on Supreme Court justices, which would require some turnover on the high court every two years. Specifically, their resolution calls for a constitutional amendment to institute nonrenewable 18-year terms for new Supreme Court justices, with a new term starting every two years. “The current lifetime appointment structure is broken and fuels polarizing confirmation battles and political posturing that has eroded public confidence in the highest court in our land,” Manchin, who is retiring at the end of the year, said in a statement. “Our amendment maintains that there shall never be more than nine Justices and would gradually create regular vacancies on the Court, allowing the President to appoint a new Justice every two years with the advice and consent of the United States Senate,” he said. Welch, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said the measure is intended “to restore public trust in our nation’s most powerful court.” “Setting term limits for Supreme Court Justices will cut down on political gamesmanship, and is commonsense reform supported by a majority of Americans,” he said. The proposed amendment would not alter the tenure of sitting justices, who would continue to serve as long as they desire or until incapacitation. It would implement a transition period during which 18-year terms would begin every two years regardless of when a current justice leaves the bench, according to an explanation issued by the senators’ offices. When a current justice retires, the newly appointed justice would serve out the remainder of the next 18-year term. It would keep the total number of justices at nine.
Biden designates national monument at site of notorious Native American boarding school -- President Biden on Monday formally designated the former site of a notorious boarding school for Native American children as a national monument, issuing a formal apology for the practice of forcibly removing children to such schools. Introducing Biden at the White House Tribal Nations Summit, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the first Senate-confirmed Native American Cabinet secretary, described Biden as “the best president for Indian Country in my lifetime,” crediting the administration’s work on tribal funding and missing and murdered Indigenous women (MMIW). Biden formally declared the monument at the Pennsylvania site of the Carlisle Indian Industrial School, which was established in 1879 as the first such school outside a Native American reservation. Over the next four decades, more than 7,800 children were forced to attend the schools, where their hair was cut and they were forbidden to speak Indigenous languages or wear traditional clothing. Richard Henry Pratt, the school’s founder, notoriously described its mission as “kill the Indian, save the man.” Rough counts estimate nearly 1,000 children died in the care of the so-called industrial schools, with the actual number likely higher. In his remarks, Biden called the use of such schools “a dark chapter that spanned 150 years … in which entire generations of Native children were literally stolen from their family members and tribes and sent away to boarding schools.” “We don’t erase history, we acknowledge it and we learn from it so we never repeat it again,” the president added. “We remember so we can heal, that’s the purpose of memory.”
Adam Schiff appointed to Senate by Gavin Newsom to replace Laphonza Butler --California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) to the Senate to complete the rest of appointee Sen. Laphonza Butler’s (D) term.The appointment means Schiff, who has served in the House since 2001 and won election to the Senate last month, will begin work in the upper chamber several weeks before the start of the next Congress in early January.Butler replaced the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) in October 2023 and said she would not runfor a full term, opening the race up to Schiff and others.Schiff has emerged as one of President-elect Trump’s top critics in the House. He led Trump’s first impeachment and has openly said his rhetoric reflects “dictator talk.”Butler announced her resignation effective Sunday, and Schiff was appointed by the governor.In a statement, Newsom highlighted Butler’s lifetime achievements and accomplishments when filling in for Feinstein.Schiff will enter the Senate alongside new Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.). Gov. Phil Murphy (D-N.J.)appointed Kim to the Senate on Sunday, too.The new California senator appears to be a target for Trump, even as the Democrat appears to want to work across the aisle in his new position.Schiff has maintained he will not be intimidated by Trump, but President Biden is reportedly considering offering Schiff a preemptive pardon in light of president-elect’s threats to go after his political enemies.
Christopher Wray to resign as FBI director ahead of Trump takeover - FBI Director Christopher Wray announced Wednesday he plans to resign from the agency, leaving his post ahead of President-Trump’s apparent plans to fire him. “After weeks of careful thought, I’ve decided the right thing for the bureau is for me to serve until the end of the current administration in January and then step down,” Wray said in a town hall meeting. “My goal is to keep the focus on our mission — the indispensable work you’re doing on behalf of the American people every day. In my view, this is the best way to avoid dragging the bureau deeper into the fray, while reinforcing the values and principles that are so important to how we do our work.” Trump nominated Kash Patel to lead the FBI, signifying his plans to fire Wray, whom he nominated to lead the investigation bureau in 2017 and who otherwise would not finish his term until 2027. Patel has proved a controversial choice to lead the agency, particularly among those concerned about comments mirroring Trump’s calls for retribution. Trump responded to Wray’s announcement by pushing for Patel’s confirmation and complaining about his legal troubles. “We will now restore the Rule of Law for all Americans. Under the leadership of Christopher Wray, the FBI illegally raided my home, without cause, worked diligently on illegally impeaching and indicting me, and has done everything else to interfere with the success and future of America,” he wrote on Truth Social. The FBI secured a warrant from a judge to search Trump’s home after he resisted numerous requests to return documents from his time as president, with the bureau recovering more than 300 documents with classified markings. Wray has led the agency under a time of increased scrutiny, taking the reins after Trump fired then-FBI Director James Comey. He’s fond of stressing the agency must always “do the right thing in the right way” both before lawmakers and FBI staff amid heightened distrust in the agency. But he’s nonetheless been subject to criticism largely from Republicans, who argue the agency has unfairly targeted conservatives. That includes ongoing complaints that the bureau acted improperly when investigating the 2016 Trump campaign — actions that predated Wray’s tenure.
Liz Cheney blasts Donald Trump's threat to jail Jan. 6 committee members - Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) responded to President-elect Trump’s threat that he wouldthrow members who sat on the House committee that investigated rioting at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in jail, calling his remarks an “assault on the rule of law.”“Here is the truth: Donald Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 presidential election and seize power,” Cheney said in a statement provided to The Hill.“He mobilized an angry mob and sent them to the United States Capitol, where they attacked police officers, invaded the building and halted the official counting of electoral votes. Trump watched on television as police officers were brutally beaten and the Capitol was assaulted, refusing for hours to tell the mob to leave,” Cheney said.“This was the worst breach of our Constitution by any president in our nation’s history. Donald Trump’s suggestion that members of Congress who later investigated his illegal and unconstitutional actions should be jailed is a continuation of his assault on the rule of law and the foundations of our republic.”The New York Times first reported Cheney’s statement.On Sunday, Trump joined “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker for his first sit-down interview since winning the election in November. In the conversation, he indicated he would not explicitly order those he’s appointing to top positions to go after his political enemies, but referenced jailing members who served on the House panel that investigated Jan. 6.He called Cheney’s actions “inexcusable” and argued she was behind the entire committee’s operations. Trump said “honestly, they should go to jail,” referring to the panel’s members.As Trump prepares to enter the White House again, there’s concern he will use the Justice Department to go after his political rivals, something he spoke about during the campaign as he faced his own criminal charges. He’s also assembling a Cabinet of loyalists, who, unlike his first administration, may not hold him back.Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), another staunch Trump critic, didn’t seem so worried about Trump’s threat. In an interview Sunday, he said he has “absolutely no worries” about being jailed by the president-elect“First off, the executive branch can’t go after the legislative branch because we embarrassed him. That’s not a sin, that’s not against the law,” Kinzinger said, later adding, “So, look, he’s all butt hurt right now because he was embarrassed. He’s not going to come after us, and I’m not worried about it at all.”
Jan. 6 rioter lashes out after sentencing: ‘Trump’s gonna pardon me anyways” - A man who ran for the congressional seat previously held by former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) taunted a federal judge’s decision to immediately send him to prison for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.Philip Sean Grillo, who was sentenced Friday to 12 months in prison, let it be known in court that President-elect Trump would likely pardon him.“Trump’s gonna pardon me anyways,” Grillo, a New York district leader from Queens, said as U.S. Marshals took him into custody.In 2023, Grillo was found guilty of the felony charge of obstruction of an official proceeding, along with a series of misdemeanors. After the Supreme Court narrowed the government’s use of obstruction law this summer, Grillo filed a motion for acquittal on that count. U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth, who presided over the case, sentenced Grillo on Friday for the remaining misdemeanor counts.“I will do my job as I’m bound by oath to do, and the president will do his. It’s as simple as that,” the judge said. Grillo declared candidacy for Santos’ seat in 2023. However, despite an interest in politics, Lamberth argued that, for now, defendants should be prosecuted without regard to their “political affiliation or any other attribute.”“Having read dozens of indictments related to Jan. 6, I can say confidently: Nobody has been prosecuted for protected First Amendment activity. Nobody is being held hostage. Nobody has been made a prisoner of conscience. Every rioter is in the situation he or she is in because he or she broke the law, and for no other reason,” Lamberth stated.More than 1,500 rioters have been charged in connection with the Capitol attack.
Despite Media Spin, Only 2 Out Of 10 Americans Support Hunter Biden Pardon - by Jonathan Turley -- As Democratic politicians and pundits rush to defend President Joe Biden’s unethical pardon of his son, Hunter, the public is expressing overwhelming opposition to his abuse of office. The latest poll, by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that only two out of ten Americans support the pardon despite weeks of media spin.The poll shows that Biden is no longer even garnering a majority among Democrats. Only 38 percent sought the pardon.As discussed in my New York Post column this week, there was an embarrassing moment recently at the White House when Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre claimed that a poll showed “64% of the American people agree with the pardon — 64% of the American people. So, we get a sense of where the American people are on this.”That poll actually showed the majority of Americans opposed the pardon. Yet, it was 64 percent of Democrats who favored a president giving his own son a pardon.It now turns out that that poll was likely wrong and that, even among Democrats, less than 40 percent support the pardon. Jean-Pierre is unlikely to use today’s press conference to highlight this poll, as she erroneously used the prior poll.This has not stopped Democratic figures in Congress and the media fighting to excuse a grossly unethical and corrupt use of pardon authority.Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and Senate majority whip, even called it a “labor of love.”Indeed, much of the corruption in Washington is a labor of love, from nepotism to influence peddling to corrupt pardons. Indeed, faced with overwhelming opposition from the public to the Biden pardon, Democratic members are now “Prisoners of Love” in fighting to rationalize a blatantly unethical act. This may or may not be a video of the choreographed response at the DNC with the members and media figures:
Bill Clinton is open to talking about preemptive pardon for Hillary Clinton --Former President Clinton said he is open to having a conversation with President Biden about a potential preemptive pardon for his wife, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Bill Clinton joined “The View” on Wednesday, where he was discussing President-elect Trump taking office early next year and the threat of him going after political enemies during his second term. “Do you think it would be wise of President Biden to preemptively pardon any potential targets? What about your wife, Hillary Clinton?” host Sunny Hostin asked, highlighted by Mediaite. “I think if President Biden wanted to talk to me about that, I will talk to him about it, but I don’t think I should be giving public advice on the pardon power,” Bill Clinton said. “It’s a very personal thing, but … I hope [Trump] won’t do that.” Biden has had discussions with his senior team about using the pardon power to protect Trump’s critics, who could be targeted in the next administration. Hillary Clinton, who lost the 2016 election to Trump, has been on his radar for years. Her husband, the former president, said Trump and his allies have a problem with her over that election, but she didn’t do anything wrong. “They’ve got a problem with her because first, she didn’t do anything wrong. Second, she followed the rules exactly as they were written. Third … remember how the emails were such a big issue in 2016? Trump’s State Department found that Hillary sent and received exactly zero classified emails on her personal device. It was a made-up phone story,” he said. In another recent interview, former President Clinton blamed the “mainstream media” coverage of his wife’s email controversy for her 2016 presidential loss.
Biden Commutes 1,500 Sentences and Issues 39 Pardons—But Leaves 40 People on Death Row U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday announced that he is commuting the sentences of nearly 1,500 Americans and pardoning 39 people convicted of nonviolent crimes, a move the White House described as "the largest single-day grant of clemency in modern history." But the president's sweeping use of his clemency power as his term nears its conclusion did not appear to extend to any of the 40 men currently on death row—some of whom have been there for decades.According to a White House fact sheet, those who received commutations "have been serving their sentences at home for at least one year under the Covid-era CARES Act," a law that extended the amount of time in which people could be placed in home confinement to reduce the spread of the virus in prisons.The White House did not name those who received pardons or commutations but said the list includes a "decorated military veteran," a "nurse who has led emergency response for several natural disasters," and "an addiction counselor who volunteers his time to help young people find their purpose."The Biden Justice Department paused federal executions in 2021, but President-elect Donald Trump pledged on the campaign trail to expand the use of the death penalty and is expected to allow the executions of the 40 men on death row to take place if they're still there when he takes office next month.In a statement on Thursday, Biden said that he has "the great privilege of extending mercy to people who have demonstrated remorse and rehabilitation, restoring opportunity for Americans to participate in daily life and contribute to their communities, and taking steps to remove sentencing disparities for non-violent offenders, especially those convicted of drug offenses.""That is why, today, I am pardoning 39 people who have shown successful rehabilitation and have shown commitment to making their communities stronger and safer," the president said. "I am also commuting the sentences of nearly 1,500 people who are serving long prison sentences—many of whom would receive lower sentences if charged under today’s laws, policies, and practices. These commutation recipients, who were placed on home confinement during the Covid pandemic, have successfully reintegrated into their families and communities and have shown that they deserve a second chance." Biden, who campaigned on ending the death penalty at the federal level, vowed to "take more steps in the weeks ahead" as his administration reviews clemency petitions, leaving open the possibility of commutations for death row prisoners.But he's running out of time, human rights organizations, religious leaders, former federal judges, and progressive lawmakers have warned in recent days as they've ramped up pressure on Biden to act."State-sanctioned murder is not justice, and President Biden has an opportunity and an obligation to save lives and make good on his campaign promise to address the federal death penalty before leaving office," Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) said at a press conference earlier this week. "With the incoming administration planning to execute the 40 individuals on death row, we're calling on the president to use his clemency authority to commute their death sentences and resentence them to a prison term."
Susan Wild absent from Ethics Committee meeting after Gaetz leaks to press -- Rep. Susan Wild (Pa.), the top Democrat on the House Ethics Committee, was absent from the panel’s meeting last week after being traced as the source of leaks to the press regarding the investigation into former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), sources told The Hill. It remains unclear if Wild voluntarily skipped the Thursday gathering or was asked not to attend, what information she leaked and to whom, and how the panel tracked her back as being the leaker. Two sources said Wild ultimately acknowledged to the panel that she had leaked information. Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) served as acting ranking member during Thursday’s meeting, according to a source, who noted that any time a member of the panel is absent, there is an acting ranking member in their place. It also remains unclear if the Pennsylvania Democrat, who is leaving Congress at the end of the year, will be present at Ethics Committee meetings in the future. Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), the chairman of the panel, told reporters that Thursday’s meeting was not the last for the group. In a statement to The Hill, Wild’s chief of staff, Jed Ober, said the congresswoman skipped last week’s meeting because she was “frustrated” with how the Gaetz report had been handled, and said characterizing her absence as anything more was “inaccurate.” “Rep. Wild was frustrated by the manner in which the report was handled and didn’t feel it was fruitful to participate in any further meetings on its ‘potential’ release. Characterizing it as anything more is inaccurate. There will be no further statement,” Ober said. Wild’s office declined to comment when asked if the congresswoman would attend future Ethics Committee meetings pertaining to the Gaetz report. A spokesperson for the Ethics Committee declined to comment. Wild was noticeably missing from last week’s Ethics Committee gathering, being the only member of the panel who did not enter then exit the committee room, which was swarmed with reporters. Punchbowl News later reported that she would not attend. The panel met to discuss its investigation into Gaetz, which has become the subject of controversy after the Florida Republican was nominated by President-elect Trump to serve as his attorney general, resigned from the House, withdrew his name from consideration for the Cabinet, and then said he would not take the oath of office in the next Congress. Whether or not to release the report has become a heated debate on Capitol Hill. The group broke from its Thursday meeting without publishing the report. In a statement afterwards, the panel said it is “continuing to discuss the matter.” The Ethics Committee — which is known for conducting business in secrecy — had been investigating Gaetz for roughly three-and-a-half years, probing allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use. The investigation, however, came to an abrupt end after Gaetz resigned from the House, since the panel does not have jurisdiction over former members of Congress.
The Wild World Of Democratic Ethics: Defeated Representative Accused Of Gaetz Leak - “You must be wary of those seeking to use their influence and their expertise to wrongful ends.” Those words were spoken at the George Washington Law School commencement ceremony two years ago by the recently defeated Rep. Susan Wild (D., Pa.).This week, the words took on a new meaning after Wild was accused of leaking information from the House Ethics Committee. Wild embodies a party that is in an ethical and political free fall this month.If news reports are accurate, Wild appears to have given our students a curious ethical lesson in how not to be a lawyer or legislator.Wild was fighting to release the report of the investigation into former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R., Fla.).When Gaetz decided to withdraw from Congress, the report was not released. That is when details from the committee were leaked to the media, and the press reported that “two sources said Wild ultimately acknowledged to the panel that she had leaked information.”Keep in mind that this is the House Ethics Committee, and she is a member. She is also a member of Congress who took an oath as part of the panel’s rules that “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will not disclose, to any person or entity outside the Committee on Ethics, any information received in the course of my service with the Committee, except as authorized by the Committee or in accordance with its rules.” Wild herself has not publicly confirmed or denied the alleged leaking of the information. If the reports are true, Wild knowingly violated an oath that she took not to release information from the Ethics Committee because she was unhappy with losing votes on the release of information. Her office seems to have shrugged off media inquiries. As in the past controversy, Wild has avoided public comment on the report that she was the leaker.It is all about the ends rather than the means in today’s politics of rage. The 2022 words of Wild were particularly poignant because they were used as part of a false attack made by Wild at my own school. In a speech to the law students on living an ethical life as a lawyer, Wild accused me of testifying falsely in the Trump impeachment that only criminal acts are impeachable after saying the opposite in my testimony in the Clinton impeachment.The only problem is that Wild’s statement was demonstrably and undeniably false. I testified in both the Clinton and Trump impeachments that an impeachable offense need not be an actual crime. Ironically, Wild’s own Democratic colleagues and later the House managers in the Senate Trump trial repeatedly cited my testimony on that very point. None of this matters in the Wild world of Democratic ethics. It is very simple. Whatever Democrats are attempting cannot be “wrongful ends.” More importantly, it is the ends, not the means, that are the measure of ethics. Since they are only fighting for what is right, the ends justify the means from cleansing ballots of Republicans (including Trump) to supporting a massive censorship system to ignoring court decisions to count invalid votes.
Elon Musk-backed group runs ad pressuring senators to support Pete Hegseth -A group previously backed by tech billionaire Elon Musk is running an advertisement pressuring senators to support President-elect Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth.The ad, from conservative group Building America’s Future, is set to air on national television and will have a particular focus on Iowa via digital platforms. It was first reported by the Daily Caller. “America needs a Defense secretary who knows what it means to fight and understands the price of freedom,” a voiceover says in the ad posted Friday to social platform X.The ad, which is costing Building America’s Future $500,000, features photos and a video clip of Hegseth, and calls him “a patriot, a decorated combat veteran and a warrior who will stop at nothing to keep America safe.” It ends with a push from the narrator to contact “your senator today and urge them to confirm Pete Hegseth for secretary of Defense.”According to previous reporting from Reuters, Musk began contributing to Building America’s Future in 2022. Republican senators’ scrutiny of Hegseth has grown in the wake of recent revelations of alleged alcohol abuse and sexual misconduct in his past.Despite the controversy, Hegseth said Wednesday that he won’t back down, and in a post on X, he suggested he is the target of a smear campaign by Democrats.The Building America’s Future ad having a distinct aim toward Iowa may be due to the state’s own Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and her recently saying that Hegseth had not won her vote. Hegseth has had two meetings with Ernst in the last week, with one being Monday. Ernst said in a statement that Trump’s pick for Defense secretary “committed to completing a full audit of the Pentagon and selecting a senior official who will uphold the roles and value of our servicemen and women — based on quality and standards, not quotas — and who will prioritize and strengthen my work to prevent sexual assault within the ranks.”
Conservative veterans sign letter backing Tulsi Gabbard nomination -- More than 250 veterans have signed a letter supporting former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), President-elect Trump’s nominee to be director of national intelligence.The letter offers a fierce defense of Gabbard’s “lifelong devotion to service” and blasts critics who call into question her loyalty.“We are appalled by the baseless attacks questioning Tulsi’s loyalty to our great nation. For over 20 years and across multiple combat deployments, Tulsi has risked her life to defend the safety, security and freedom of the American people,” the letter reads. “These attacks insult not only her, but every one of us veterans who have served our country.”The support comes as Gabbard faces growing scrutiny for her past comments on Moscow and her 2017 visit with the former Syrian dictator, Bashar Assad.Gabbard — who served in the House for eight years as a Democrat — has made remarks about the Russia-Ukraine war that were sympathetic to Moscow and echoed by Russian state news, which has praised her nomination.In the Middle East, Gabbard visited Syria in 2017 and said Assad was not an enemy of the U.S. — though she later labeled him a “brutal dictator.” The remarks have gained renewed attention in recent days, as the Syrian government collapsed and Assad was driven out of the country by rebels.The letter comes days after a group of nearly 100 former national security officials issued their own letter about Gabbard, urging the Senate to “carefully scrutinize” the former congresswoman. They raised concerns about her experience level, her past comments and meeting with Assad, and that she has “publicly cast doubt on U.S. intelligence reports.” “Her sympathy for dictators like Vladimir Putin and Assad raises questions about her judgment and fitness,” the letter last week read.The veterans, in their letter Monday, push back against “so-called ‘experts’ in Washington” who have criticized Gabbard, saying their attacks are “baseless lies and smears.”“Unable and unwilling to challenge the substance of her views, her critics resort to baseless lies and smears, exposing the weakness of their arguments,” the letter reads. “Tulsi’s patriotism, shaped on the battlefield, mirrors the values and aspirations of the American people far more than the failed policies of so-called ‘experts’ in Washington, who have been part of the problem for too long.”The veterans praise Trump in the letter for selecting Gabbard as the nominee, saying, “As Director of National Intelligence, she will be a fearless reformer and a true patriot, ensuring that the intelligence apparatus serves the American people and protects our Republic.”
Tulsi Gabbard kicks off Capitol Hill meetings amid questions over Syria -- Tulsi Gabbard is facing a key week on Capitol Hill as she makes the rounds with senators in an attempt to smooth over their concerns and win confirmation to lead the U.S.’s national intelligence apparatus. Gabbard, who represented Hawaii in the House as a Democrat, has flown under the radar in recent weeks, especially with much of the focus on former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) bid to become attorney general and Pete Hegseth’s nomination to lead the Pentagon. But she faces myriad queries from Senate Republicans about her past remarks on Russia and about a 2017 visit to Syria — during which she declared that now-deposed President Bashar Assad wasn’t an “enemy” of the U.S. — topics that have become more prominent since rebels took control of Damascus over the weekend. “There’s just a lot of questions that need to be answered,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), a member of Republican leadership. “I’m certain she can answer these questions,” Capito continued, adding that Gabbard hasn’t talked publicly about these topics with enough specificity, including on Syria. “To a lot of people … she’s sort of too undefined to really form an opinion, so she needs to really get out [there].” Gabbard kicked off her meetings with a trio of Senate Republicans on Monday, including Sens. James Lankford (Okla.) and Mike Rounds (S.D.), both of whom serve on the Senate Intelligence Committee and will help control her fate. But key to whether she succeeds or fails is her ability to assuage skepticism from some corners of the GOP conference. Unlike in much of the MAGA-verse, Senate Republicans are still largely supportive of Ukraine and the conference includes a number of defense hawks whose views clash directly with Gabbard’s comments in recent years that have been viewed as sympathetic to Russia. Russian state media has also praised her selection. But Trump World appears ready to go to the mat to defend her, especially as some of President-elect Trump’s selections have withdrawn and others remain in tricky waters. “I think she’s great. 100 percent supportive of her. A lot of people take issues with some of the stuff she’s done,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who served alongside her in the House. He pointed to her status as a lieutenant colonel in the United States Army and that she was in Oklahoma over the weekend for a training assignment. “I believe she knows what she needs to do and her foreign policy, I bet you, is going to line up with the direction of this country. I remind you, she’s able to serve the country in the Army and we’re saying that we’re concerned about her position now because she’s been nominated for DNI? It’s a non-starter for me. She would be wonderful in that position.” Her supporters are also critical of calls by Democrats and detractors who argue that she is a security risk and is unable to pass a background check. “That’s bulls—,” said Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska.), noting her military status and that she already has Top Secret clearance. “There’s a lot of hyperbole out there.”
Tulsi Gabbard goes on offense - With Matt Gaetz and Pete Hegseth serving as lightning rods, Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination as director of national intelligence has so far mostly avoided the Washington storm clouds.The winds are now shifting.The shocking collapse this weekend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has reinvigorated scrutiny about Gabbard’s past sympathies for the brutal dictator. Her 2017 visit to Damascus to meet with Assad — years after he gassed his own people — and her comments defending his rule have long exemplified the former Democratic congresswoman’s unconventional foreign policy views.Now her past is both a punchline — “Wonder if [Gabbard] will offer Assad safe harbor at her house,” former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) jested as rebels closed in — and a complication for her confirmation prospects as senators begin to take stock.As if on cue, Gabbard has left an Army training assignment in Oklahoma for Capitol Hill, where she will begin to press her case in person. That begins today with Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.), with additional Senate Intelligence Committee Republicans scheduled for later in the week.Despite the attention on her views, Gabbard and her allies remain cautiously optimistic. They say she’s eager to tackle her critics head-on. And unlike Gaetz and Hegseth, she has a posse of Hill allies prepared to help her along. “She is very prepared, because it’s the same shit people have been throwing at her for years,” one Gabbard confidant said Sunday night. “She’s not easily rocked by anything.” Former national security adviser John Bolton is already swinging hard. In a Sunday phone call, the renowned hawk said Gabbard has shown “an inclination to believe the most outrageous propaganda against the United States by some of its strongest enemies” — citing, as an example, her parroting the unfounded, Russia-backed “biolabs” conspiracy theory holding that the U.S. was conducting biological warfare research in Ukraine.It “raises serious questions about her judgment,” Bolton said, reflecting a “funhouse of mirrors” view of American foreign policy that “goes beyond normal political discourse in this country — and really is evidence of some kind of flaw, maybe even a character flaw, that she doesn’t realize what she’s saying.”But Gabbard’s allies say she’s ready to go toe-to-toe with Bolton andlikeminded critics, Republican and Democrat alike.When it comes to Bolton & Co., they argue, they are simply out of touch with today’s GOP — it’s Gabbard who is in lockstep with President-elect Donald Trump, who controversially met with authoritarian figures like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in his first term.“John Bolton is irrelevant and him saying he would write in Dick Cheney for president this year should tell you everything you need to know about his disastrous and failed foreign policy instincts of never-ending wars and more American deaths,” said transition spokesperson Alexa Henning.
Cold Shoulder: Democrats Ignore Tulsi Gabbard's Request To Meet - The return of Tulsi Gabbard to Capitol Hill began with breakfast in the Senate dining room courtesy of Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst,followed by back-to-back meetings with other Republicans, all of whom were happy to welcome the former Hawaii Democrat and discuss her nomination to lead the U.S. intelligence community. But members of her old political party, including one-time House colleagues, largely ignored her. It’s still early in the process, but Gabbard has been unable to schedule a single meeting with Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee. Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, outgoing chairman of the committee, has not responded to her requests for a meeting, according to a source directly familiar with Gabbard’s efforts. Others have replied to her outreach but remain hesitant about putting anything on the books. At least one Democrat scheduled a sit-down this week only to abruptly cancel. nThe cold shoulder comes nearly a month after President-elect Donald Trump picked Gabbard to be his director of national intelligence, two years after she quit a Democratic Party that she called “an elitist cabal of warmongers,” and immediately after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.Gabbard met with the now-deposed dictator twice in 2017 while on a “fact-finding mission” to the war-torn country. These meetings proved to be an impediment when she ran for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2020.“What do you say to Democratic voters who watched you go over there, and what do you say to military members who have been deployed repeatedly in Syria, pushing back against Assad?” Kasie Hunt asked two years later during an MSNBC interview. Gabbard replied that U.S. troops deployed there “without understanding what the clear mission or objective is.”Gabbard added that Assad was “not the enemy of the United States because Syria does not pose a direct threat to the United States.” Hillary Clinton promptly accused Gabbard, then a major in the Hawaii National Guard, of being a “Russian asset.”The Republicans who will control the Senate next year do not see the meeting with Assad eight years ago as disqualifying or insurmountable. Despite the suggestion of Democrats such as Sen. Tammy Duckworth, who recently worried that Gabbard “couldn’t pass a background check,” Republicans point out that as a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserves, Gabbard already has a top-secret security clearance. More than 250 military veterans co-signed a letter published Monday endorsing her as “a warrior whose vote cannot be bought.”
Gabbard struggles to woo senators ahead of confirmation fight - Tulsi Gabbard is struggling through her meetings with senators this week, sources told The Hill, highlighting the difficult path she faces in winning confirmation to be director of national intelligence. Nearly a half dozen sources, including senators and individuals close to the situation, indicated that Gabbard is having trouble during meetings with lawmakers, with one source familiar describing the sit-downs as “not going well.” “She was proving to be a little shallow, like a House member talking at a hearing and not someone who needs to provide the president’s daily intelligence briefing,” the source familiar said. Two Senate Republicans also echoed the concerns, with one noting that multiple members who have sat down with her have come away unimpressed thus far. “I’ve heard that she’s not very well prepared,” the Senate GOP member said, describing them as “BS sessions.” “I’ve heard not great things.” The second Senate Republican added there have been “a lot of eyerolls” from members who have sat down with the former Democratic Hawaii congresswoman early on. The issues lawmakers have with Gabbard stem from her lack of experience and her relationships with U.S. adversaries. She met in 2017 with Bashar Assad in Syria, whose government was overthrown this week, following allegations of chemical weapons use against his own people. She has also been a high-profile defender of leaker Edward Snowden and has echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s talking points on the Ukraine war. Her defense of Putin would make it difficult for her to gain support from the likes of outgoing Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is staunch in his support for Ukraine. Another source familiar with her meetings on the Hill said that senators were “likely inclined not to like her from the beginning.” A Senate GOP aide whose member has met with Gabbard said the poor meetings she’s had “don’t make it easy” for her to win votes,” adding, “she’s got some work to do if she wants the job. The more she meets with serious people, the more they’ll see there’s a competency deficit.” But, the aide was optimistic, calling her “a capable person who could learn quickly.” “They’ve got to get her up to speed really quickly… she’s just not educated on the job. But I feel she can get it done, ultimately,” the source said. Additionally, another Senate Republican who has met with Gabbard said that some of her troubles stem from positions beyond Syria and Russia. Specifically, they pointed to her past votes against reauthorizing FISA Section 702, which gives the U.S. the authority to conduct warrantless surveillance of non-U.S. citizens located abroad. “The hard part is explaining things like she voted against [FISA Section 702] four times and now she’s going to have to be the defender of 702,” the member said. Others expressed less concern about Gabbard. “They’ll find she’s a straight shooter,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) said earlier in the week. “She is someone that when she gets focused, she’s extremely driven and will get the job done, and she’s also going to be someone that’s going to be able to change the way that DNI has been run under [Director Avril Haines] and the direction that we’re going to be going there.” “People have just got to get to know her and be comfortable with her,” he added.
More than 75 Nobel laureates urge Senate to reject RFK Jr. -- Seventy-seven Nobel laureates signed a letter urging the Senate to oppose the confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), The New York Times reported Monday. In the letter, the 77 Nobel laureates in medicine, chemistry, physics and economics said they have concerns about Kennedy’s lack of “relevant experience” and about some of the public positions he has taken. “In addition to his lack of credentials or relevant experience in medicine, science, public health, or administration, Mr. Kennedy has been an opponent of many health-protecting and life-saving vaccines, such as those that prevent measles and polio; a critic of the well-established positive effects of fluoridation of drinking water; a promoter of conspiracy theories about remarkably successful treatments for AIDS and other diseases; and a belligerent critic of respected agencies (especially the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control, and the National Institutes of Health),” the letter read. “The leader of DHHS [Department of Health and Human Services] should continue to nurture and improve — not threaten — these important and highly respected institutions and their employees,” the letter continued. President-elect Trump’s nomination of Kennedy has sparked concern among some Democrats and public health figures, who say they worry Kennedy could meddle with key government agencies, amplify vaccine hesitancy, and direct agency funding to favor his preferred views. If confirmed, Kennedy would lead the department that oversees 13 separate agencies, has a budget of nearly $2 trillion and administers federal health programs including Medicare, Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. The HHS and its subagencies are responsible for responding to diseases and public health threats like COVID-19 and bird flu, as well as approving new drugs, including vaccines. Kennedy is the founder of one of the most prominent anti-vaccine groups in the country and has promoted the debunked claim that childhood vaccines cause autism. He also said recently he wants to eliminate fluoride from the country’s drinking supply, raising concerns for health officials who consider adding the mineral chemical a major advancement to preserving teeth. Kennedy has been a vocal critic of some of the agencies he seeks to oversee. He has said federal health regulators are “sock puppets” held captive by industry special interests and has vowed to purge entire departments at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to root out corruption. In October, Kennedy said in a post on social platform X that the FDA’s “war on public health is about to end,” adding, “If you work for the FDA and are part of this corrupt system, I have two messages for you: 1. Preserve your records, and 2. Pack your bags.” “In view of his record,” the Nobel laureates wrote in the letter, “placing Mr. Kennedy in charge of DHHS would put the public’s health in jeopardy and undermine America’s global leadership in the health sciences, in both the public and commercial sectors.”
Trump announces new picks for roles at OMB and DOJ - President-elect Trump announced new picks for roles at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Department of Justice (DOJ) on Monday.The president-elect said in posts on Truth Social that his pick for OMB general counsel is Mark Paoletta, and his choice for assistant attorney general of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division is Harmeet Dhillon. Paoletta previously served as OMB general counsel during the first Trump administration and has recently worked to help the president-elect plan for transition at the DOJ. He was also former Vice President Pence’s chief counsel during Trump’s first time in the White House.“Mark will work closely with our DOGE team to cut the size of our bloated Government bureaucracy, and root out wasteful and anti-American spending,” Trump said in one of his Truth Social posts, referencing the “Department of Government Efficiency” panel, which Trump has selected tech billionaire Elon Musk and former GOP presidential primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to lead.Last month, Paoletta said on the social media platform X that DOJ employees who are against Trump’s point of view on how the department should operate should leave.“If these career DOJ employees won’t implement President Trump’s program in good faith, they should leave. Those employees who engage in so-called ‘resistance’ against the duly-elected President’s lawful agenda would be subverting American democracy,” Paoletta said.Dhillon currently serves as a managing partner at her law firm, Dhillon Law Group, which worked for Trump when he was fighting efforts to push him off the ballot via the 14th Amendment during his most recent presidential bid. She also tried and failed to challenge former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Ronna McDaniel for her role in 2023.“Throughout her career, Harmeet has stood up consistently to protect our cherished Civil Liberties, including taking on Big Tech for censoring our Free Speech, representing Christians who were prevented from praying together during COVID, and suing corporations who use woke policies to discriminate against their workers,” Trump said Monday on Truth Social.
Treasury nominee to meet with senators -Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump's pick to serve as Treasury secretary, is planning to meet with several Republican senators on Wednesday as he continues to build support for his nomination. He is aiming to build support for his nomination
Trump’s latest admin picks include Devin Nunes, IBM’s Troy Edgar == President-elect Trump announced a new round of picks for his incoming administration on Saturday ahead of his inauguration in January.He announced Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes to be chairman of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, IBM executive Troy Edgar to be deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), businessman Bill White to serve as ambassador to Belgium, former acting director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell as Presidential Envoy for Special Missions, and Edward Sharp Welsh as ambassador to Ireland.“While continuing his leadership of Trump Media & Technology Group, Devin will draw on his experience as former Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and his key role in exposing the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax, to provide me with independent assessments of the effectiveness and propriety of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s activities,” Trump wrote in a statement posted to Truth Social.
"This Is Not The Time For Balance": LA Times Columnist Resigns In Protest... Over Balanced Commentary - by Jonathan Turley -When now President-Elect Donald Trump was convicted, the thrill-kill atmosphere around the courthouse and the country was explosive, but no one was more ecstatic than liberal columnist and former prosecutor Harry Litman.The then L.A. Times columnist told MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace that it was a “majestic day” and “a day to celebrate.”A lawfare advocate, Litman excitedly laid out how Trump could be barred from office, declaring that the raid in Mar-a-Lago was the “whole enchilada” in ending Trump’s political career.Now, Litman has resigned from the L.A. Times because the owner wants more diversity of opinion in the newspaper. Litman went on MSNBC to declare that “this is not a time for balance.” Those seven words sum up much of what has destroyed American media with millions turning away from the echo chamber created by the Washington Post, L.A. Times, and other publications. Litman is not alone. Many liberals are dispensing with the pretense of declaring opposing views “disinformation” and are now openly fighting to preserve ideological echo chambers and media silos. In my new book, The Indispensable Right, I write about the decline of newspapers as part of the “advocacy journalism” movement. Opinion pages became little more than screeds for the left, including legal commentators who have been consistently wrong and misleading on merits of challenges or cases. Last year, Washington Post publisher and CEO William Lewis delivered a truth bomb in the middle of the newsroom by telling the staff, “Let’s not sugarcoat it…We are losing large amounts of money. Your audience has halved in recent years. People are not reading your stuff. Right? I can’t sugarcoat it anymore.” Litman has been one of the most unabashed lawfare warriors. Even when the Justice Department was seeking to dismiss the Flynn case, Lipman wrote an L.A. Times column advising Judge Emmet Sullivan how to “make trouble” for the administration. Litman admitted there is “very little leeway to reject the government’s decisions to dismiss charges” but encouraged Sullivan to “accomplish what Congress, multiple inspectors general, and a majority of the electorate have not been able to do — hold the president and his allies accountable for their contemptuous disregard for the rule of law.” On MSNBC’s Deadline: White House, Litman declared to Nicolle Wallace that Trump’s victory is “an absolute five-alarm fire.” He called the effort to restore a diversity of viewpoints as little more than an attempt “to curry favor with Trump.” He then added: “And I just think this is not a time for balance when you have someone who’s not telling the truth on the other side. And it’s a deep responsibility. And instead, I think they cowered and are worried about their personal holdings and just being threatened by Trump. And that’s a really shameful capitulation, I think. So, I just felt I couldn’t be a part of it and had to resign.”
ABC settles Trump’s defamation suit for $15M --ABC News and anchor George Stephanopoulos agreed to settle a defamation suit brought by President-elect Trump by issuing a public apology and providing $15 million to fund Trump’s future presidential library, according to court documents filed Saturday. The settlement enables both the anchor and Trump to avoid sitting for court-ordered depositions next week. Trump sued the network and the anchor in March after Stephanopoulos repeatedly said during a “This Week” interview that a jury found Trump “liable for rape” in a lawsuit brought by advice columnist E. Jean Carroll. The jury had found Trump liable for sexual abuse under New York law, but not rape. Under the settlement agreement, the network will put the $15 million in escrow to ultimately be used toward Trump’s future presidential library and foundation. ABC also agreed to pay $1 million in attorneys’ fees and add an editors’ note to the bottom of the relevant article, court documents show.“ABC News and George Stephanopoulos regret statements regarding President Donald J. Trump made during an interview by George Stephanopoulos with Rep. Nancy Mace on ABC’s This Week on March 10, 2024,” the note reads. In return, Trump agreed to drop the lawsuit and waive any legal claims arising from the interview. “We are pleased that the parties have reached an agreement to dismiss the lawsuit on the terms in the court filing,” an ABC News spokesperson said in a statement.A Trump spokesperson deferred comment to the written agreement.
Tech Billionaires Rush to Bankroll Trump's Inaugural Party - In the hours after Donald Trump was elected for the second time, thebiggest names in the tech world bent the knee to the president-elect, withMark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman, and Tim Cook congratulating him on his dominant win. This week, many of those same executives are putting their money where their mouths are, donating millions to his inaugural fund. On Wednesday, Zuckerberg announced a $1 million donation through Meta on Friday, a gift that came after he spent two days at Mar-a-Lago trying to win some influence in the incoming administration. The next day, Amazon announced a $1 million donation to Trump’s inauguration — which a person close to Bezos described to The Wall Street Journal as really just a gift from Bezos routed through his company. Not to be outdone, OpenAI announced Friday that Altman, its CEO, would also donate $1 million. The reasons for their generosity are not very complicated. Trump, who has proven to be quite vindictive over the years, rewards people who reward him. A measly $1 million for the inauguration could pay itself back many times over if their companies are in the president-elect’s favor. Meta and OpenAI fall within the administration’s push to promote economic growth by loosening restrictions around artificial intelligence. Bezos has a lot more at stake, fighting Trump megadonor Elon Musk for lucrative government contracts in space. A million-dollar donation is the price of admission for donors to attend the inaugural ball, so at least they’ll all have a chance to pull out their tuxes in January. If Trump’s first inauguration is any indicator, House Democrats will be paying attention to who is donating and where the money is going. His first inaugural committee raised a staggering $107 million for just a handful of parties and galas; many donations reportedly came via proxies for foreign businesses unable to legally donate to his campaign. One donor even went to prison for 12 years for an illegal $900,000 donation. The committee never really provided an answer as to where the money went, though the Trump Organization handed back nearly a million to settle a lawsuit filed by the D.C. attorney general, who alleged that the firm had benefited off the inauguration party.
White House weighing executive action to spur data centers - President Joe Biden’s administration is considering executive action to fast-track the construction of data centers key to artificial intelligence — with potentially much looser environmental constraints, two people familiar with the discussions said Wednesday.The exact nature of the action is still under discussion, the people said. They said the White House was discussing using the Defense Production Act, which gives the president broad emergency powers, to achieve its goal.The action could allow data centers to exceed pollution limits, open federal lands to data center construction and give data centers priority access to available power supply, the people said. One of the sources said the policy under discussion would take the form of an executive order.White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson called the sources’ report “inaccurate” but did not specify on record which aspects.
UnitedHealthcare's AI missteps a cautionary tale for banks - Shortly after UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was gunned down in front of the New York Hilton, previously published reports began surfacing about his company's use of AI to deny health care coverage to patients, especially people over 65 and people with mental illness. Numerous reports and lawsuits have criticized the health insurer for using algorithms to ramp up denials of coverage.\
BBC says it has complained to Apple over AI-generated fake news attributed to broadcaster -- The BBC says it has filed a complaint with the US tech giant Apple over AI-generated fake news that was shared on iPhones and attributed to the broadcaster.Apple Intelligence, which was launched in Britain this week, produces grouped notifications from several information sites that have been generated by artificial intelligence.One of those suggested that the BBC News website had published an article claiming that Luigi Mangione, who was arrested in the US over the murder of a healthcare executive in New York, had committed suicide.“BBC News is the most trusted news media in the world. It is essential to us that our audiences can trust any information or journalism published in our name and that includes notifications,” a BBC spokesperson said in a statement.“We have contacted Apple to raise this concern and fix the problem.”The BBC reported that a similar incident had occurred in relation to notifications attributed to the New York Times, though that was unconfirmed by the US publisher.
The speculative Bitcoin frenzy The spectacular rise of Bitcoin is not an indication that it and other cryptocurrencies represent a new form of finance or an alternative to the present system. Rather, it is the expression of the increasingly diseased character of the present financial order, a growing malignancy centered at its heart in the US. Last week, the price of Bitcoin rose to more than $100,000, as other cryptocurrencies also surged, bringing their total value, according to a report in the New York Times, to $2 trillion. The Wall Street Journal estimated the total value of the asset class at $3 trillion—“more than the combined worth of Mastercard, Walmart, and JPMorgan Chase.” This has prompted claims in the so-called mainstream media, which previously tended to characterize it as some kind of scam, to hail the crypto surge as the wave of the future. As the Times article went on to comment: “Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000 signals its now-undeniable status in the global economic system. The virtual currency has now become a staple of financial markets, embraced by Wall Street giants and amateur investors alike.” At the end of 2022, Bitcoin underwent a precipitous fall in the wake of the collapse of the heavily promoted crypto exchange firm FTX and the charging and subsequent conviction of its owner, Sam Bankman-Fried, for fraud. The value of Bitcoin just two years ago was around $16,000. Since then, it has enjoyed a spectacular rise. It began last January when regulatory authorities in the US allowed major asset managers and finance houses to establish financial products, exchange traded funds (ETFs), linked to the coin. Crypto started its life as a supposed alternative to the existing financial system, allowing transactions to be conducted outside the purview of banks and regulatory authorities. As such, it only had a limited connection with major banks and financial institutions. All that has changed. As a recent article in the Financial Times (FT) noted, since the approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission allowing Bitcoin ETFs, “crypto has become far more closely connected to the rest of the financial system. And the numbers are enormous: BlackRock’s recently launched ETF has already drawn an astonishing $48 billion.” Bitcoin received a further boost with the election of Trump to the US presidency and his declaration that he wants to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet” and even to establish a fund to invest in it as part of the government’s reserve of financial assets. Trump boosted the use of crypto during the election campaign and has since followed up with a series of appointments of crypto advocates and operators to key posts in his administration. After the appointment of Howard Lutnick to head the commerce department and Elon Musk as the co-head of the “department of government efficiency” with the acronym DOGE, the same as Musk’s own crypto token, he announced that crypto advocate Paul Atkins would head the chief regulatory authority, the SEC, to replace outgoing head Gary Gensler, regarded as a thorn in the side of crypto. Trump described Atkins as a leader for “common sense regulations”—code words for the scrapping of what remains of previous controls. Atkins has been critical of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), which regulates accounting firms and is overseen by the SEC. A member of the PCAOB’s advisory group, Lynn Turner, told the FT the appointment was possibly the worst outcome for the organization “short of an atomic bomb hitting their building.” In announcing the appointment, Trump made crypto the central focus. In a post on his social media site, he said Atkins recognized that “digital assets & other innovations are crucial to Making America Greater than Ever Before.” This was followed up by the announcement that Gail Slater, an aide to Vice President-elect JD Vance, an avid crypto supporter, would head the Department of Justice’s antitrust division, a move hailed by corporate and financial interests. Trump’s announcements and appointments led to a rapid rise in Bitcoin, which is up by more than 50 percent since the November 5 election victory. What is most significant is that it is being fueled by what the FT called a “flood of institutional money. Exchange traded funds investing in the cryptocurrency run by mainstream asset managers including BlackRock and Fidelity have poured in billions since they received regulatory approval in January.” Other asset managers, including pension funds, are reported to be investing in cryptocurrency. In grasping the significance of this phenomenon, it is vital not to become dazzled by the rise of Bitcoin and the fabulous fortunes that have been acquired, in some cases virtually overnight, and to focus on the fundamental issues. No matter how steep its rise, and it may have further to go, the basic facts remain. Bitcoin is a financial asset that has no intrinsic value and does not generate an income stream. Other financial assets, such as holdings of commercial property and corporate debt, do, and, in the final analysis, rest on a real asset that generates a profit. Profit from Bitcoin trading is generated solely by its price rise and nothing else. And its rise in price continues as long as money keeps flowing into the crypto market.
Nigerian man nabbed for $8m alleged crypto scam, dupes 139 Australians – Operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) have arrested Osang Usie Otukpa, a Nigerian man accused of defrauding 139 Australians out of $8 million through a fraudulent cryptocurrency investment scheme. The suspect was apprehended at the Murtala Mohammed International Airport, Ikeja, Lagos, upon his arrival from the United States. In a statement released on Friday, Dele Oyewale, EFCC’s Head of Media and Publicity, disclosed that Otukpa employed multiple aliases, including Ford Thompson, Oscar Donald Tyler, Michael Haye, Jose Vitto, and Kristin Davidson, to carry out the scam. The fraudulent activities revolved around a rogue cryptocurrency platform named Liquid Asset Group, which Otukpa promoted extensively on social media. Victims were lured into investing in the platform, resulting in significant financial losses. The EFCC revealed that proceeds from the scam were funneled into Otukpa’s bank accounts via a global cryptocurrency exchange platform. The statement reads: “Operatives of EFCC have arrested a suspected online fraudster, Osang Usie Otukpa, for allegedly duping 139 Australians to the tune of $AUD8,000,000. “He was picked up in a stakeout at the Murtala Mohammed International Airport, Ikeja, Lagos, upon arrival from the United States of America on Friday, December 6, 2024. “Otukpa, who goes by five aliases—Ford Thompson, Oscar Donald Tyler, Michael Haye, Jose Vitto, and Kristin Davidson—scammed the victims by luring them on social media to invest in his rogue cryptocurrency investment platform, Liquid Asset Group. “The proceeds of the alleged crimes were routed to his bank accounts through a global cryptocurrency exchange platform.” Oyewale further stated that investigations are ongoing and that the suspect will be charged in court upon completion of the process.
Brooklyn DA Shuts Down Cryptocurrency Scam Targeting Artists - Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez announced Friday that his Virtual Currency Unit has dismantled a cryptocurrency scam targeting artists across the United States. The investigation, led by a team from the DA's office, began after an 85-year-old Brooklyn painter was defrauded of his life savings, traced the scheme to Nigeria and identified 40 fraudulent NFT marketplace websites. Those domains have now been seized to prevent further victimization, the DA's office said in a press release. “Cryptocurrency scams can take many forms but have similar characteristics, such as preying on vulnerable victims and requesting fees to redeem purported earnings," DA Gonzalez said. "These were the tactics used in this case, leading our investigators to a network of fraudulent websites that specifically scammed artists. It is my hope that by shutting these domains and raising awareness about this scheme, we will prevent others from falling victim to this scam.” The probe began in May when the children of a Clinton Hill resident reported their father’s financial and emotional devastation. The professional painter had been contacted via LinkedIn by an alleged art dealer claiming to represent “OpenSea/Private Mint,” a counterfeit version of the legitimate NFT marketplace OpenSea. The scammer convinced the victim to sign a contract to mint his art as NFTs. The scammer later claimed the NFTs had generated $300,000 in bitcoin but required him to pay fees to access the proceeds. The painter liquidated his IRA, maxed out credit cards, and took out a loan to send over $135,000 in cryptocurrency to the fake platform. The fraud unraveled when the promised payout never materialized, leaving the victim financially ruined. The Virtual Currency Unit traced the victim’s payments to accounts at a cryptocurrency exchange. The funds were primarily converted to Nigerian currency, making recovery impossible. Investigators linked the scam to a network of 40 fake NFT marketplace websites, some of which tricked users into entering their cryptocurrency wallet seed phrases, allowing scammers to drain entire accounts. Though the stolen funds could not be recovered, the DA’s office obtained court orders to seize the 40 fraudulent domains. The sites now redirect to a seizure notice warning users of the scam. “This scheme targeted artists nationwide and exploited their trust in emerging digital markets,” Gonzalez said. “By taking these sites offline, we are stopping future harm and educating the public.”
You can't stop debanking without changing banking -Back in 2017 there was this get-together in Charlottesville, Virginia, that got rather out of hand. I am of course referring to the Unite the Right rally, in which hundreds of people with very retrograde views on race gathered in a show of strength and thousands of people who oppose those views gathered to protest. One person was killed and more than a dozen injured when a white nationalist plowed his car into a crowd of protesters, the most violent episode of a very violent weekend. Allegations of regulators pressuring banks to drop clients and customers because of political views or ties to legal-but-disfavored industries have sparked outrage among conservatives. But requiring banks to serve absolutely everyone would change the nature of banking in ways that aren't conservative.
Credit-Market Mania Crushed “Yield Spreads” & Risk Premiums, but Corporate & CRE Borrowing Costs Are Still Much Higher by Wolf Richter - Measures of “financial conditions” and “financial stress” have loosened dramatically since 2023 and are now nearly as loosey-goosey as they had been during the reckless monetary policy era in 2021, when the Fed’s policy rates were at near 0% and QE still ruled, despite surging inflation. These measures, such as the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, are in part driven by a basket of “yield spreads,” and yield spreads have narrowed sharply and are very tight, near record tight. But just because “financial conditions” are near-record loose as yield spreads have narrowed in a mindboggling manner doesn’t mean that corporate borrowing costs are as low as they were in 2021. Far from it. Corporate borrowing costs – including Commercial Real Estate – are much higher than they had been in 2021. It’s just that credit-market mania has crushed risk premiums, to where investors are demanding only a little extra compensation in form of yield to take on a lot more credit risks. Here, we’ll look at the junk-rated (higher risk) corporate credit spectrum: leveraged loans and junk bonds. Leveraged loans are mostly floating-rate loans that trade like junk bonds, or are securitized into collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). The floating rate is now based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which has replaced LIBOR. SOFR is based on transactions in the Treasury repo market, where yields are close to the Fed’s policy rates. Most leveraged loans are priced at SOFR plus some percentage points, for example, SOFR plus 3.75 percentage points, such as Cornerstone Generation’s newly issued loan package which S&P rated ‘BB-‘ (our cheat sheet for corporate credit ratings by rating agency).SOFR on Friday was 4.60%, according to the New York Fed, which calculates and publishes SOFR. That’s right in the middle of the Fed’s five policy rates since the November rate cut, ranging from 4.50% to 4.75%.. SOFR plus 3.75% would be 8.35%, compared to about 3.80% in 2021. When rates get cut – and if they get cut by as much as these borrowers and Wall Street are dreaming about – the interest costs of all existing floating-rate loans are going to drop (which is very different from junk bonds, as we’ll see in a moment). But at the moment, leveraged-loan rates remain high: Where the “yield spread” comes in is the percentage over SOFR. If financial conditions weren’t as loosey-goosey, the Cornerstone Generation loan package might have been priced at SOFR plus 4.5 percentage points to find investors. But now investors are chasing yield, creating huge demand for higher-risk corporate credits, thereby narrowing the spread between leveraged-loan rates and SOFR. These ultra-loose financial conditions – allowing Cornerstone to issue leveraged loans rated ‘BB-‘ at a spread of only 3.75 percentage points over a near-risk-free short-term rate – are the reason there has been a massive surge in leveraged-loan issuance in recent months. Floating rate CRE loans are priced the same way, SOFR-plus, which is why CRE mortgages with floating rates were the first to default because the properties didn’t generate enough cash from rent payments to pay the interest payments that had more than doubled (though landlords could hedge against some of that risk, and many did, but not enough). SOFR-based floating rates have come down by only about 75 basis points from the peak after the Fed’s 75-basis-points in rate cuts, and remain very high. And now companies with this kind of debt, and landlords with floating-rate mortgages are praying for massive rate cuts by the Fed, which would directly reduce the interest costs of existing floating rate leveraged loans and CRE mortgages.
A third ex-TD Bank employee is charged in money-laundering scheme -- A former TD Bank employee in Florida has been charged with allegedly facilitating a money-laundering scheme that involved moving millions of dollars related to the sale of narcotics. Leonardo Ayala, who was a retail banker at a TD branch in Florida, faces criminal charges in connection with money-laundering activities.
TD faced the U.S. hammer. Now its Canadian compliance gets a revamp. -- TD Bank Group's historic money-laundering-related failures in the U.S., which led to record penalties this fall, have also left the bank on the hook for fixing its compliance problems elsewhere. After the Toronto-based bank faced record penalties in the U.S., it made new disclosures about its anti-money-laundering compliance obligations in Canada, where critics say regulators have been too lax.
BankThink Trump wants to streamline bank regulation. Here's how he should do it. - According to recent news reports, the incoming Trump administration wants to streamline federal bank supervision. These headlines are already producing some eyerolls, asconsolidation of federal supervision has come up repeatedly. In light of our federalist structure and shared power between the national and state governments, there will always be a dual banking system. We should consolidate federal oversight of the banking industry within the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. It would rationalize a system that has grown increasingly unwieldy over generations.
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024 - The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items. Third quarter net income for the 4,517 FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions decreased $6.2 billion (8.6 percent) from the prior quarter to $65.4 billion. The quarterly decrease in net income was largely driven by the absence of about $10 billion in one-time gains on equity security transactions reported in the previous quarter. The absence of these nonrecurring gains was partially offset by strong net interest income in the third quarter.... Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persists. The past-due and nonaccrual (PDNA) loan ratio increased 6 basis points from the prior quarter to 1.54 percent. This ratio was 18 basis points higher than the year-earlier quarter but below the pre-pandemic average of 1.94 percent.2 Quarterly, banks reported an increase in the PDNA ratio in credit card loan portfolios (up 20 basis points to 3.36 percent), nonfarm nonresidential commercial real estate (CRE) loan portfolios (up 7 basis points to 1.69 percent), 1–4 family residential loan portfolios (up 3 basis points to 1.83 percent), and auto loan portfolios (up 5 basis points to 3.13 percent). Annually, the industry reported the largest PDNA increases in nonfarm nonresidential CRE loan portfolios (up 43 basis points to 1.69 percent), credit card loan portfolios (up 27 basis points to 3.36 percent), and commercial and industrial loan portfolios (up 20 basis points to 1.17 percent).The industry’s net charge-off ratio decreased 1 basis point to 0.67 percent from the prior quarter but was 16 basis points higher than the year-earlier quarter. This ratio was also 19 basis points above the pre-pandemic average and remained the highest quarterly ratio reported by the industry since second quarter 2013. Credit card and nonfarm nonresidential CRE loan charge-offs drove the quarterly decrease in the net charge-off ratio, which was partially offset by an increase in commercial and industrial loan charge-offs. The credit card net charge-off ratio was 4.48 percent in the third quarter, down 34 basis points quarter over quarter but still 100 basis points higher than the pre-pandemic average. The net charge-off ratio for nonfarm nonresidential CRE loans decreased 9 basis points quarter over quarter to 0.29 percent but was 25 basis points higher than the pre-pandemic average. (Click on graph for larger image.) From the FDIC: The number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” increased from 66 to 68. Total assets held by problem banks rose $3.9 billion to $87.3 billion. Problem banks represent 1.5 percent of total banks, which is within the normal range of 1 to 2 percent of all banks during non-crisis periods.This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks.
FDIC Inspector General finds gaps in resolution readiness -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has notable gaps in its preparedness to resolve large regional bank failures, according to a Wednesday report issued by the agency's Office of Inspector General. A report by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Office of Inspector General revealed deficiencies in the agency's preparedness for large bank failures.
Consumer group urges FDIC to publicly release failed-bank probes -- A consumer advocacy group is calling for regulators to publicly release investigations into executives and directors of the three regional banks that collapsed last year: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. Americans for Financial Reform wants investigations into the directors and executives of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank released before the Jan. 20 inauguration.
Trump could bypass Democratic picks for FDIC Board -- By tradition, the top senator of the president's opposition party is entitled to recommend nominees for two seats on the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. But President-elect Donald Trump may be poised to shake up that tradition, potentially setting up a partisan tiff next year. President-elect Donald Trump may opt to bypass Democratic suggestions for minority party seats on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s board of directors, setting up potential conflicts with Senate leadership over regulatory appointments.
What big-bank CEOs are expecting — good and bad — from Trump 2.0 -- Now that the U.S. presidential election is over, bankers have traded one type of uncertainty — who will win — for another, as they wait for impending policy changes . The top executives at some of the nation's largest banks spoke Tuesday about their expectations for the second Trump administration. Deregulation, capital rules, tariffs and inflation were all prominent topics.
Ex-OCC head: Expect 'radically different' regulators -- Bank regulators under the new Trump administration will usher in a markedly different approach to commercial real estate lending, according to a former Trump regulator and insider to the president-elect's transition team. Brian Brooks, former acting Comptroller of the Currency in the first Trump administration and advisor to the President-elect's transition team, said new agency heads will open up commercial real estate lending, approach credit risk management differently and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
How bank deals are likely to fare with Trump's antitrust pick --The Department of Justice was poised to be a thorn in the side of banks if Democrats kept the White House, as the antitrust division had gotten unusually aggressive under President Biden. The industry hopes that the bigger hurdles to bank mergers under President Biden will fade in the new adWhat big-bank CEOs are expecting — good and bad — from Trump 2.0 -- Now that the U.S. presidential election is over, bankers have traded one type of uncertainty — who will win — for another, as they wait for impending policy changes . The top executives at some of the nation's largest banks spoke Tuesday about their expectations for the second Trump administration. Deregulation, capital rules, tariffs and inflation were all prominent topics.ministration. But populist opposition to consolidation in the tech sector could spill over into banking.
The bank regulatory items that are open for public comment - Public comment openings are an essential part of any well-rounded legislative process, but it can be hard to keep track of all the different agencies and governance alerts that are published across the banking industry. These regulatory announcements in the banking industry are currently open to public comment.
Banks sue CFPB for capping overdraft fees at $5 - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a final overdraft rule that caps overdraft fees at $5 for the largest banks. The sweeping rule immediately drew a legal challenge from bank trade groups. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a final rule that would allow banks to either charge $5 for overdraft fees. Alternatively they can charge a courtesy fee to cover costs, or charge higher fees but send annual percentage rate disclosures to the consumer. Bank trade groups sued the bureau to stop the rule.
Judge strikes blow to CFPB's $8 credit card late fee rule --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was dealt a major blow by a federal judge who found that the bureau's rule cutting credit card late fees to $8 "clearly violates the CARD Act." U.S. District Judge Mark T. Pittman wrote that trade groups that sued the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau earlier this year "are likely to succeed on the merits" of the case.
Google sues CFPB, challenges oversight of retired product -- In a lawsuit filed Friday, Google said that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which placed the company's payments arm under supervision earlier in the day, had acted beyond its authority when it acted on complaints about a recently retired product. The company said the P2P payment service the bureau seeks to supervise presents no risk to consumers because it is no longer offered in the U.S. Google discontinued Google Pay in the U.S. in June, but the service is still available in other countries, including India.
Consumer watchdog CFPB faces daunting future under Donald Trump -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is headed for a rocky future under President-elect Trump. The powerful financial watchdog agency is in for a reckoning during a second Trump administration, which will likely take steps to curb its power and regulatory agenda. The CFPB has been in Republican crosshairs since it was created through the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law to crack down on customer abuse in the financial system. But the CFPB is receiving new scrutiny after a warning from tech mogul and close Trump ally Elon Musk. Musk, the co-lead of Trump’s new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), fired a warning shot at the consumer watchdog agency last week, calling for it to be “deleted.” While Musk and DOGE can’t follow through on that alone, experts say the CFPB is likely to face efforts to weaken its regulatory powers under Trump. “The conservative movement has been existentially opposed to the CFPB since it was conceived of by then-professor Elizabeth Warren,” said Graham Steele, former assistant secretary of financial institutions at U.S. Treasury under President Biden. Dodd-Frank sought to protect the CFPB from political attacks and industry influence by giving an independent source of funding from the Federal Reserve and a director that could only be fired by the president for misconduct. Democrats, especially progressive Wall Street skeptics, have praised the CFPB for its aggressive action against banks, lenders and other financial firms, often pointing to the billions of dollars secured by the bureau in restitution for jilted consumers. But Republicans insist the CFPB has overstepped its authority and the Constitution with a regulatory crusade against law-abiding businesses. Numerous lawsuits have challenged the agency’s constitutionality, including a case that was heard by the Supreme Court last year. The court ultimately rejected the challenge to the CFPB’s funding structure in a 7-2 decision in May. Even so, the Supreme Court ruled in 2020 that the CFPB director must be fireable by the president at will to uphold the separation of powers among government branches. That decision cleared the way for President Biden to fire former CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger, whom Trump appointed after a power struggle to replace her predecessor and the bureau’s founding director, Richard Cordray. Trump is expected to fire CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, a former Warren aide who helped stand up the CFPB after Dodd-Frank, shortly after taking office. Doing so would open the door for Trump to appoint a Republican likely to curb the CFPB’s actions. Eliminating the agency, as Musk suggested, would require an act of Congress, making it an unlikely outcome, especially with Republicans’ narrow majorities in both chambers.
CFPB's Chopra says he won't resign, but he will leave -- Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, refused to say that he would step down from his role when President Trump takes office in January, implying in congressional testimony Wednesday that the president would have to fire him. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said he has no plans to resign ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, suggesting he will wait to be fired instead.
She didn’t get an apartment because of an AI-generated score – and sued to help others avoid the same fate | Artificial intelligence (AI) -Three hundred twenty-four. That was the score Mary Louis was given by an AI-powered tenant screening tool. The software, SafeRent, didn’t explain in its 11-page report how the score was calculated or how it weighed various factors. It didn’t say what the score actually signified. It just displayed Louis’s number and determined it was too low. In a box next to the result, the report read: “Score recommendation: DECLINE”.Louis, who works as a security guard, had applied for an apartment in an eastern Massachusetts suburb. At the time she toured the unit, the management company said she shouldn’t have a problem having her application accepted. Though she had a low credit score and some credit card debt, she had a stellar reference from her landlord of 17 years, who said she consistently paid her rent on time. She would also be using a voucher for low-income renters, guaranteeing the management company would receive at least some portion of the monthly rent in government payments. Her son, also named on the voucher, had a high credit score, indicating he could serve as a backstop against missed payments.But in May 2021, more than two months after she applied for the apartment, the management company emailed Louis to let her know that a computer program had rejected her application. She needed to have a score of at least 443 for her application to be accepted. There was no further explanation and no way to appeal the decision.“Mary, we regret to inform you that the third party service we utilize to screen all prospective tenants has denied your tenancy,” the email read. “Unfortunately, the service’s SafeRent tenancy score was lower than is permissible under our tenancy standards.” Louis was left to rent a more expensive apartment. Management there didn’t score her algorithmically. But, she learned, her experience with SafeRent wasn’t unique. She was one of a class of more than 400 Black and Hispanic tenants in Massachusetts who use housing vouchers and said their rental applications were rejected because of their SafeRent score.In 2022, they came together to sue the company under the Fair Housing Act, claiming SafeRent discriminated against them. Louis and the other named plaintiff, Monica Douglas, alleged the company’s algorithm disproportionately scored Black and Hispanic renters who use housing vouchers lower than white applicants. They alleged the software inaccurately weighed irrelevant account information about whether they’d be good tenants – credit scores, non-housing related debt – but did not factor in that they’d be using a housing voucher. Studies have shown that Black and Hispanic rental applicants are more likely to have lower credit scores and use housing vouchers than white applicants.“It was a waste of time waiting to get a decline,” Louis said. “I knew my credit wasn’t good. But the AI doesn’t know my behavior – it knew I fell behind on paying my credit card but it didn’t know I always pay my rent.”
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Refinance Activity Increased Especially for Rate/Term Refinances - Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Refinance Activity Increased Especially for Rate/Term Refinances Brief excerpt: When mortgage rates declined in September and October, there was a surge in refinance activity, especially in rate/term refinances by homeowners with mortgage rates in the 7%+ range.• More than 300K borrowers closed on refinances in September and October, including nearly 150K rate/term refinances
• Refinances out of 2023 and 2024 vintages drove 78% of rate/term lending, and nearly half of refinance activity overall
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3 - The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $168.8 trillion during the third quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $3.8 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.2 trillion..... Household debt increased 3 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2024. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in 2021. This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q3 2024, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 74.7% - down from 75.0% in Q2, 2024. This is close to the highest percent equity since the 1960s. Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $105 billion in Q3.Mortgage debt is up $2.58 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 45.2% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q3 and is below the peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.
CoreLogic: Almost 1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q3 2024 -From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Homeowners See Equity Gains Drop by More Than 5 Percent in Q3 CoreLogic® ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) saw home equity increase by $425 billion since the third quarter of 2023, a gain of 2.5% year over year, bringing the total net homeowner equity to over $17.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2024.For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022, the share of negative equity rose in the U.S. on a quarterly basis. Just compared to last quarter, the number of residential properties that fell into negative equity increased by 30,000 homes or 1.8%. ...“As home prices flattened in the third quarter, home equity gains also slowed, even declined in some regions of the country,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, CoreLogic Chief Economist. “While home equity closely depends on home price changes, equity losses are also tied to natural disaster events since households can lose a lot of their equity following a catastrophe, particularly if not property insured. As a result, following Maui’s 2023 devastating wildfire, Hawaii now tops the list with largest decline in home equity.” From the report: In the third quarter of 2024, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity increased by 3.5% from the second quarter of 2024, to currently about 990,000 homes with negative equity, or 1.8% of all mortgaged properties. On a year-over-year basis, negative equity declined by 3%, or about 30,000 fewer homes in negative equity from the third quarter of 2023.This map from the report shows the percent of mortgaged homes with negative equity by state.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -Mortgage applications increased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 6, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving Holiday.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 50 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 27 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 30 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates decreased again for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate dipping to 6.67 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Applications increased 5 percent, driven by a 27-percent surge in refinance activity, as borrowers with higher rates acted on the chance to lower their payments. VA refinance applications were up 85 percent from the previous week, matching some of the larger swings in VA activity reported in recent months.”Added Kan, “Purchase applications remained relatively strong and have shown annual gains in all but one week over the past three months. In addition to lower rates, purchase activity continues to be supported by sustained housing demand and inventory that continues to grow gradually in many markets.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.67 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.66 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 4% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 24% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now above the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September but has decreased as rates moved back up.
Housing Dec 9th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now 6.7% below the peak for the year (7 weeks ago).Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015..The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 26.2% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 27.1%), and down 16.8% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.2%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing! This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Dec 6th, inventory was at 690 thousand (7-day average), compared to 707 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 2% in November; Up 12% YoY - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Slides 2% in NovemberThe Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 2.3% in November to 191.5 (2000=100) from the revised October reading of 196.0. Over the month, commercial planning fell 4.6% while institutional planning improved 2.5%.“Throughout 2024, we’ve seen robust growth in nonresidential planning activity – but labor shortages and high construction costs have prevented those projects from moving through the planning process at a normal pace. The current backlog may be constraining demand for commercial planning in the short-term,” . “Uncertainty over new tariff and immigration policies under president-elect Trump’s administration may also be generating some pause with developers, although it’s a bit too early to tell if that’s the primary factor here. Overall, easing monetary policy will help alleviate the backlog of projects in the planning queue throughout 2025 and spur more demand for projects in the coming months.” On the commercial side, slower data center, office, warehouse and retail planning drove much of this month’s decline, while strong growth in education planning informed much of the growth on the institutional side. The institutional portion of the DMI has grown in 5 of the last 6 months.In November, the DMI was 12% higher than year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 13% from November 2023, while the institutional segment was up 8% over the same period. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year has been substantial. If we remove all data center projects in 2023 and 2024, commercial planning would be down 6% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be down 1%. ...The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 191.5 in November, down from 196.0 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.
BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in November; Core CPI increased 0.3% - From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the previous 4 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, as it did in each of the previous 3 months. Indexes that increased in November include shelter, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, new vehicles, and recreation. The index for communication was among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending October. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.4 percent over the last year. The change in CPI was close to expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.9% (down from 4.1% in October), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.3% (unchanged from 3.3%). Core PCE is for October was up 2.8% YoY, up from 2.7% in September.
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter -Here are a few measures of inflation:The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 4.1% YoY.This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through November 2024. Services were up 4.5% YoY as of November 2024, down from 4.7% YoY in October. Services less rent of shelter was up 4.1% YoY in November, down from 4.5% YoY in October.The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -2.0% YoY as of November 2024, up from -2.5% YoY in October. Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.7% YoY in November, up from -1.2% YoY in October. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through November) and housing from the PCE report (through October) Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October. Housing (PCE) was up 5.0% YoY in October, down from 5.1% in September. The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase." This is still catching up with private data. Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.1% YoY in November.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: CPI & “Core” CPI Accelerate Further Month-to-Month, 3-Month Averages Heat Up for 4th Month. Year-over-Year, CPI Accelerates for 2nd Month by Wolf Richter -- The overall Consumer Price Index rose by 0.31% (+3.8% annualized) in November from October, the sharpest increase since April. It has been accelerating since June (blue). The three-month average jumped by 3.0% annualized, also the sharpest increase since April, and the fourth month-to-month acceleration in a row: On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose by 2.75% in November, the second month in a row of acceleration, up from 2.60% in October. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy components to track underlying inflation, rose by 3.32% year-over-year. It has been in this range for the sixth month in a row, and above where it had been in June. The major components, year-over-year:
- Overall CPI: +2.75% (yellow).
- Core CPI +3.32% (red).
- Core Services CPI: +4.58% (blue).
- Durable goods CPI: -2.01% (green).
Month-to-month “Core” CPI rose by 0.31% (+3.8% annualized) in November from October. Over the past four months, core CPI has risen in this range of +3.4% to +3.8% annualized, the biggest increases since March (blue in the chart below). The 3-month average “core” CPI accelerated to +3.7% annualized, the fourth month of acceleration in a row, and the highest since April (red). The sharp price increase of used vehicles in November, the third month in a row of price increases, was a big factor in the stubbornly high and accelerating core CPI rate, having U-turned from a historic plunge that until mid-2024 had been one of the big factors in the cooling of core inflation. Used vehicles, on a month-to-month basis, are now fueling inflation, and we have seen that for months beneath the surface in rising used-vehicle wholesale prices, very tight inventories, and strong demand (stimulated by the plunge in prices from early 2022 till mid-2024). The 6-month average “core” CPI – which irons out most of the month-to-month squiggles but lags further behind – accelerated to +2.9% (red): The core services CPI decelerated to +3.4% annualized in November from October (blue line in the chart below), which cooled the 3-month average to +4.0%. The 6-month core services CPI, which irons out a lot of the month-to-month squiggles, accelerated to 3.7% annualized (red). The Owners’ Equivalent of Rent CPI decelerated sharply to +2.8% annualized in November from October (blue in the chart below). The three-month average decelerated to +3.9% annualized (red). Both of these increases were the lowest since 2021, after the sharp increases in the prior months. OER indirectly reflects the day-to-day expenses of homeownership: homeowners’ insurance, HOA fees, property taxes, and maintenance. It is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for, with assumption that a homeowner would want to recoup their cost increases by raising the rent. It accounts for 27% of overall CPI and estimates inflation of shelter as a service for homeowners – as a stand-in for the costs that homeowners pay for, such as interest, homeowner’s insurance, HOA fees, maintenance, and property taxes. Rent of Primary Residence CPI decelerated to +2.6% annualized in November from October (blue in the chart below). The 3-month rate decelerated to +3.2%. Both of them were the lowest since 2021. Rent CPI accounts for 7.7% of overall CPI. It is based on rents that tenants actually paid, not on asking rents of advertised vacant units for rent. The survey follows the same large group of rental houses and apartments over time and tracks the rents that the current tenants, who come and go, paid in rent for these units.
Used-Vehicle Prices Turn into Inflation Headwind, after Historic 2-Year Plunge Helped Power the “Deceleration” of Core CPI by Wolf Richter - Prices of used vehicle sold at auctions across the US jumped by 1.3% in November from October, seasonally adjusted, continuing an upward trend that started over the summer, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which is adjusted for changes in mix and mileage (red in the chart).This jump flipped the year-over-year reading to the first increase (+0.2%) since August 2022, after the historic plunge during which prices gave up nearly 50% of the pandemic spike, with a bottom in mid-2024. Now prices have turned around.This has implications for inflation because the historic plunge of used vehicle prices was a significant contributor to cooling core inflation measures. Now used vehicles have turned into a headwind in the struggle to contain inflation. Not seasonally adjusted, wholesale prices were roughly unchanged in November from October, which whittled down their year-over-year decline to 1.0%, from the double digits earlier in 2024, and the smallest year-over-year decline since August 2022 (blue in the chart above). Wholesale prices normally decline in November, as volume slows during the Thanksgiving week.Dealers buy at these auctions to replenish their used-vehicle inventories. Supply comes from rental fleets that sell some of the vehicles they pull out of service, from finance companies that sell their off-lease vehicles and repos, from corporate and government fleets, other dealers, etc.The Three-Year-Old index declined 0.9% in November, but that was less than the five-year average decline between 2014 and 2019 of 1.2%, “indicating depreciation trends were less than typical, especially earlier in the month,” said Manheim, a unit of Cox Automotive. Manheim runs about 8 million vehicles a year through its auctions.The average daily sales conversion of 55.6% “was much higher than we normally see at this time of year,” Manheim said. Over the past three years, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 50.7% in November.Leasing activity plunged in 2021 and 2022, amid new-vehicle shortages and uncertainties about lease-end residual values due to the insane spike of used vehicle prices at the time. As a result, the number of leases that matured in November was down by 36% from November 2023, according to J.D. Power. This plunge in lease maturities translates into a plunge in supply of two-year-old and three-year-old vehicles to the used-vehicle market. And it will drag into 2025 and 2026.A fundamental issue for used-vehicle supply in 2024 through 2026 is that new-vehicle production and sales plunged from 2021 through 2023 due to the semiconductor shortages, and sales plunged, and then were slow in coming back up, and are still well below 2019 levels. Compared to 2019 sales levels, between 2020 and 2024, 10 million fewer new vehicles were sold.On a narrower scale, over the seven quarters from Q2 2021 through Q1 2023 when the chip shortages hit vehicle production and sales, automakers sold 6 million fewer new vehicles than over the seven-quarter period before the pandemic.These 6 to 10 million new vehicles that didn’t get built and weren’t sold would have entered the used-vehicle market over the years, but now they’re missing and will not be able to supply the used vehicle market over the years.
PPI, “Core” PPI, “Core Services” PPI Inflation Much Hotter after Whopper Up-Revisions Going Back Months by Wolf Richter The prior months’ data of the Producer Price Index were revised substantially higher today, powered by whoppers of upward revisions in the PPI for services, something that has been happening month after month, and on top of that came the price increases in November. The PPI tracks inflation in goods and services that companies buy and whose cost increases they ultimately try to pass on to their customers. And the entire year 2024 through November has been a big acceleration. The revisions, and the additional price increases in November, caused the overall PPI for final demand to rise by 3.0% year-over-year, unrounded (+2.98%) the fastest increase since February 2023, and a substantial acceleration from October, which a month ago was reported as an increase of 2.4% year-over-year, and up from the original September increase of 1.8%. So the data went in two months from 1.8% to 3.0%: that’s a big fast acceleration. The freak drop in July in the chart above was caused in the services index, that forms the majority of the overall PPI. More in a moment. On a month-to-month basis – likely to be revised even higher next month – the PPI for final demand rose by 0.38% on top of the upwardly revised price levels in the prior month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today The plunge in energy prices from mid-2022 until recently had pushed the overall PPI down into its pre-pandemic range, and papered over the inflationary forces in services. But that is now over. On a month-to-month basis, energy prices rose in November, and food prices jumped, and other goods prices rose, and services prices rose. “Core” PPI, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace since February 2023, up from the originally reported 3.1% in October and up from the originally reported 2.8% in September. On a month-to-month basis, Core PPI added 0.22% in November to the upwardly revised October price level. The Services PPI for final demand accounts for 67% of the overall PPI. It’s the biggie, and it’s where inflation is. And it’s where the whopper upward revisions are. The PPI services accelerated to 3.9% year-over-year in November, the fastest pace since February 2023,, and there were whoppers of upward revisions for October to 3.8%, from the 3.5% reported a month ago, and for September to 3.6%, from the 3.1% reported two months ago. So from 3.1% to 3.9% in the data in two months. That’s quite a trip. We’re now eagerly awaiting the upward revisions for November. The freak drop in July occurred because the month-to-month reading of July 2023 of +9.9% annualized fell out of the 12-month period, and was replaced by the -2.8% reading of July 2024. The Services PPI month-to-month increased by 2.9% annualized (+0.24% not annualized) in November, on top of the upwardly revised October level. And those were the whopper revisions, month-to-month annualized:
- October revised to +3.9% today, from the +3.2% reported a month ago
- September revised to +4.9% today, from the 2.0% reported originally two months ago
- August revised to +5.8% today in serial revisions from the originally reported 2.6% three months ago.
. Double-decker luxo-whopper upward-revisions going back months! In other words, PPI inflation in services is not only getting worse, but has been much worse than previously reported. “Finished core goods” PPI has been relatively tame and with only small revisions, compared to the inflationary mess going on in services. Some prices have been falling, others rising. Year-over-year, the index rose by 2.5% in November, an acceleration from 2.4% in October, and the fastest increase since December 2023, and up from the low of 2.2% in May. The index has been all year in the upper portion of the pre-pandemic range. On a month-to-month basis, the index rose by 3.1% annualized in November, and this year has been in the range from +1.5% to +3.7%. But in terms of overall inflation, the problem is that the finished core goods PPI stopped decelerating this year, and instead started to softly accelerate again. It was a big contributor to the deceleration of the PPI last year, and that is now over.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending December 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, an increase of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 218,250 to 218,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 224,250.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.
GM Shuts Down its Misbegotten Robotaxi Money-Pit after Acquiring Cruise in 2016 and then Blowing $10 Billion on It -by Wolf Richter -- General Motors announced Tuesday afternoon, after blowing $10 billion on its misbegotten robotaxi-startup money-pit Cruise LLC which it had acquired for an undisclosed amount in 2016 amid enormous hype, that it would:
- No longer fund Cruise;
- Bring its ownership from the current 90% to 97% via “agreements with other shareholders”;
- Acquire the remaining shares;
- Shut down the robotaxi operation;
- Fold Cruise’s technical team into its own autonomous and assisted driving effort for personal vehicles which produces the “hands-off, eyes-on” driving feature now available on nearly two dozen GM models.
So adios, Cruise. Until Cruise started to implode in October 2023, GM CEO Mary Barra had hyped Cruise’s financial potential at every twist and turn, expecting it to produce $1 billion in revenues by 2025 and $50 billion by 2030, which caused Wall Street to lick its chops.Cruise costs GM currently about $2 billion a year. Today GM said in the statement that it “expects the restructuring to lower spending by more than $1 billion annually” when the restructuring is complete in the first half of 2025.Following the announcement today, shares jumped initially by 3.6% afterhours but then gave up part of it.Alphabet’s Waymo, among the adults in the robotaxi room, has been operating driverless robotaxis in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles. Here in San Francisco, riding a Waymo – they’re retrofitted Jaguar SUVs – has become a must-do tourist attraction, along with riding a cable car. The Waymos are everywhere, especially in the touristy part of the City.
Phonics is back in New York state schools, Regents decide - Every school district in New York must revert to teaching phonics in prekindergarten through third grade, starting this fall, the Board of Regents decided Monday. For decades, many districts had followed the lead of the Columbia University Teachers College, where a leading professor’s curriculum called for memorizing words instead of explicitly teaching the sounds of every letter and letter combination. Many children eventually figure out the letter sounds on their own, but a significant minority — perhaps one-third of all children — do not figure it out until they are taught.The Teachers College’s popular program emphasized writing at an early age, and other important parts of literacy. But the de-emphasis on phonics is now being blamed for the reading struggles of generations of students.The Board of Regents voted to enact an emergency rule requiring every school superintendent to review their district’s literacy curriculum and add whatever is necessary to follow the state Education Department’s “best practices” for literacy.It is the latest in a sweeping series of changes in how New York children are educated. The Board of Regents has championed an increase in preschool, eliminated Regents exams as a high school graduation requirement, pushed for more project-based and “meaningful” learning, and is now taking on how children learn to read.“We know and believe that a solid foundation in literacy by grade 3 is a critical marker in a child’s educational development and a strong predictor of future success,” said Deputy Commissioner Angelique Johnson-Dingle. “It is therefore especially imperative that students in K through grade 3 receive high-quality, explicit instruction in literacy.”Every public school must teach six concepts: phonemic awareness (hearing each sound in a word) and phonics (knowing the sound combinations of letters) as well as reading fluency, reading comprehension, vocabulary and oral language.Superintendents must check their curriculum for those concepts.“Reflect on what they currently have and identify the critical elements that are missing and/or should be phased out,” Johnson-Dingle said.Last year, the state Education Department urged districts to start teaching phonics again. But it was an uphill battle. Some Capital Region school districts had just purchased expensive new reading programs that didn’t include lessons on which combinations of letters make which sounds.
Record number of homeless students in New York City – one in eight -- The New York City public school system had a record 146,000 students experiencing homelessness during the 2023-2024 school year, according to data released in November by Advocates for Children (AFC). This amounts to one of every eight children in the largest school district in the United States with a million students. Fifty-four percent of these children spent some time “doubled up,” or unavoidably sharing the housing of others, while another 41 percent are in families that sought space in city shelters, leaving over 7,000 children who may have spent some nights on the streets or the subway system. There are currently at least 350,000 people in New York City without a home, a rise of 19 percent over the past two years, according to a report by the Coalition for the Homeless (CFH). The city’s longstanding problem of homelessness is compounded by inadequate government support for refugees, more than 210,000 of whom have arrived in the past two years, according to city statistics, about one-third of them school-age children. As of August, there were 65,000 migrants living in shelters. The city’s Department of Education estimates that 36,000 children of migrant families are enrolled in its schools. The problem of homelessness is emblematic of the social inequality of American society, abysmally so in New York City, the richest city in the richest country in the world. Average rent in Brooklyn, the most populous of the city’s five boroughs, is $2,772 per month, 78 percent higher than the national average, according to Apartments.com. While 54 percent of New Yorkers—more than 4 million—are classified as “low income,” the city has about 800 millionaires and 110 of America’s 787 billionaires The AFC report noted that homelessness for New York City students is a protracted problem, not rooted in the more recent surge of refugees. “2023–24 was the ninth consecutive school year in which more than 100,000 students were identified as homeless. . . This is more than there are seats at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field combined.” Homelessness is rampant across the US. A record 653,104 people experienced homelessness in the US in 2023, a 12 percent increase over 2022, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development. One in every 30 American children goes to sleep without a home of their own each year. In Los Angeles County, 65,484 students were identified as homeless in the 2023-24 school year, in Chicago 26,800 students. Record numbers of homelessness exist in the richer nations, such as in the UK, where 183,000 Londoners live in temporary accommodation. There are 117.3 million people forcibly displaced worldwide, according to the UN, much of which is the consequence of US imperialist war.
Experts worry Trump's nomination of RFK could lower childhood vaccine rates -Experts are worried about how President-elect Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy as Health and Human Services secretary will affect vaccination rates for school children, which have been on the decline. Schools have seen a drop in childhood vaccinations since the COVID-19 pandemic, when critics of the COVID-19 vaccines increased anti-vaccine sentiments in general. Public health groups see vaccines as a huge bulwark against disease and fear Kennedy will only increase skepticism if he is confirmed. “The reason we think Mr. Kennedy is the wrong guy for the Secretary of Health and Human Services is we do not think that somebody who has been the source of so much death and disability amongst the nation’s children should have any seed of prominence in the health world,” said Georges Benjamin, the executive director of the American Public Health Association. Trump has suggested he could at least consider ending some childhood vaccination programs. “We’re going to have a big discussion. The autism rate is at a level that nobody ever believed possible. If you look at things that are happening, there’s something causing it,” Trump told Time magazine when asked about ending certain vaccines programs. While autism diagnoses are on the rise, claims that vaccines cause autism have been debunked by the medical community. Health experts have explored other reasons for the increase in autism diagnosis, such as changes to diagnostic criteria. Kennedy is a longtime vaccine skeptic who said back in 2023 that “there’s no vaccine that is safe and effective.” He also created an anti-vaccine group called the Children’s Health Defense. Public health groups say a move against vaccines could be a danger for school children. “Kids are coming together often for the first time in places like daycares and in schools and these are diseases that are spread when you get close to one another in any kind of setting,” Benjamin said. “School is a very high-risk place for the spread of these diseases. So, as a way of protecting the public, both individually and broadly, we require kids to get vaccinated at school,” he added. The U.S. began childhood vaccination programs in the 1970s due to outbreaks in schools. By the end of the 20th century, all but four states had vaccine mandates for students entering K-12. “I mean, were school mandates to be eliminated, I think you would see major resurgences of these highly contagious, infectious diseases that are often transmitted in schools,” said Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center and an attending physician in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “And I fear that what’s happened with COVID is that people feel that there was government overreach, and so there’s pushback. And I think one of the places where there’s pushback is school mandates,” Offit said.
Right-wing Supreme Court majority appears ready to approve state bans on gender-affirming care for adolescents - Following the logic of its 2022 ruling eliminating the constitutional right to abortion access, at oral arguments on Wednesday several right-wing Supreme Court justices signaled their support for reactionary state laws that ban hormonal therapies to treat transgender adolescents, a prohibition that could expand to adults as well. Such a ruling, expected sometime during the first half of next year, would undercut decades of precedent guaranteeing equal protection under the law. The right-wing justices’ bigoted and anti-scientific remarks in United States v. Skrmetti pandered to the fascists and religious zealots being mobilized against transgender people, who are being scapegoated to divert attention from the mounting social ills arising from the unprecedented social polarization in the United States and internationally. Almost all humans are born with external genitalia that determine their sex at birth. Gender identity, the sense of belonging to a particular sex, usually matches those physical characteristics, but not for everyone. Modern science and medicine recognize that there can be a mismatch between physical and psychological attributes of sex, a condition known as gender dysphoria, which left untreated can become overpowering for a young person, resulting in severe anxiety and depression, and even suicide. Over the last several decades, medical and mental health professionals have developed a wide range of therapies to help gender dysphoria patients, especially during puberty, the stage of life when contradictions between sex at birth and gender identity can suddenly intensify and become irreversible. Along with counseling and other behavioral interventions, in appropriate cases hormonal treatment administered by trained endocrinologists may play an important role in helping to align the physical characteristics of patients with their gender identities. The most common are puberty blockers and estrogen for born males who identify as female and testosterone for born females who identify as male. Transgender people have become the whipping boys for right-wing politicians from Donald Trump on down. About half of the US states, covering one-third of the population, currently have bans on hormone therapy for minors to treat gender dysphoria, claiming such actions to be child abuse. The case argued in the Supreme Court began when three transgender teenagers who benefited from hormonal treatments, along with their families and a physician, challenged a Tennessee law banning hormone therapy to enable a “minor to identify with, or live as, a purported identity different than the minor’s sex; or treating purported discomfort or distress from discordance between a minor’s sex and asserted identity.” The law’s stated purpose is overtly ideological, to “encourage minors to appreciate their sex” rather than becoming “disdainful of their sex.” The trial court blocked the provision, but its injunction was reversed 2-1 in the Court of Appeals. The Supreme Court accepted review on whether Tennessee’s prohibition of hormone therapy to treat gender dysphoria but not for other purposes violates the Fourteenth Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection. Chief Justice John Roberts mused that the Tennessee ban does not involve “simple stereotyping,” which it obviously does, and responded that courts are “not the best situated” to address such “medical nuances.” Justice Brett Kavanaugh added that the “Constitution doesn’t take sides on how to resolve medical and policy arguments,” and therefore the question should be left to state governments. Justice Samuel Alito claimed that medical groups in European countries, where hormonal therapies were pioneered, have more recently been skeptical of the benefits of gender-affirming care for adolescents. “Lay judges” should not be required to make “complicated medical” decisions that would lead to “endless litigation,” he said.
Right wing groups in California use bogus claims of antisemitism to launch legal attacks on education and free speech A series of lawsuits have been launched by pro-Zionist outfits against California teacher unions and school districts both prior to and after the Israeli regime launched their overt genocidal campaign against the Palestinian people last year. The lawsuits are an attempt to stifle opposition to the crimes of the Israeli state backed by Washington. Leveraging the slander that all classroom discussion of the crimes of the Israeli government is “antisemitic,” some of the suits also seek to remove automatic union membership in the United Teachers of Los Angeles (UTLA) union, falsely claiming that the union promotes antisemitism. While one of the most prominent of these lawsuits was recently thrown out by a U.S. District judge, others are still ongoing and may gain traction as a result of not only the anti-democratic climate of the incoming Trump administration but also as a result of recent pro-Zionist measures passed by the Democratic-party led state government meant to severely limit, if not altogether suppress, discussion of the ongoing genocide and the crimes of US imperialism in general. The recently tossed lawsuit was launched by a group calling itself the Concerned Jewish Parents and Teachers of Los Angeles. It opposes the teaching of the so-called Liberated Ethnic Studies Model Curriculum at the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD). The lawsuit sought to shut down any criticisms of Israeli policy as “antisemitic.” It claimed that the LAUSD-UTLA Ethnic Studies Committee and UTLA president Cecily Myart-Cruz encouraged the adoption of a curriculum that “condemns capitalism, white privilege and Zionism” and characterized Israel’s existence as “based on ethnic cleansing and land theft, apartheid and genocide.” District Judge Fernando Olguin’s ruling dismissed the suit with prejudice as he claimed the complaint was “difficult to understand and contains a morass of largely irrelevant—and sometimes contradictory—allegations, few of which state with any degree of clarity precisely what plaintiffs believe defendants have done or, more importantly, how plaintiffs have been harmed.” The legal director for the Deborah Project, a pro-Israeli law firm created specifically for the purpose of preventing criticism of Israel in school settings and which represented the plaintiffs, responded to the ruling stating, “We absolutely will be appealing the decision and are confident that the decision will be reversed on appeal.” The deadline for the appeal is December 30. Other, similar lawsuits are still ongoing.
George Mason University students demand democratic rights for the student leaders of the Students for Justice in Palestine -George Mason University students in Northern Virginia have reacted with outrage and concern over the police and FBI’s raid on the homes last month of two members of the Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) at the campus.On November 7, two leading members of the GMU chapter of the SJP had their doors kicked in by a joint Fairfax County Police Department and Federal Bureau of Investigation raid. The students had been under suspicion for a minor incident involving the spray painting of the words “stop the genocide” on a walkway at the university. The students and their family were made to stand for hours as law enforcement turned their home upside down, removing electronic devices. No evidence of any crimes was uncovered, and no arrests were made. Despite this, the university issued a trespass notice against the two students, a decision which they weren’t even made aware of, and suspended the campus SJP until further notice.“To see two of my fellow students be suspended for nothing but their continued activism and resistance to the persecution and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people… feels like a backhanded slap to the face,” said one GMU student. The student called the decision to ban the SJP an act of “collective punishment” against the club, most of whom were not suspected of involvement in the spray painting incident.On Sunday, the Washington Post published an article revealing the county and federal prosecutors’ claims against the two students.“Court documents, which do not publicly indicate a reason for the search, allege that authorities found guns and magazines inside the home” belonging to the two students’ brother and father, along with “Hamas and Hezbollah flags.” Prosecutors responded by attempting to “temporarily prohibit the men from possessing or buying firearms.”However, the Post article notes that a judge later threw out the prosecutors’ demands and “no one has been charged with any crimes.” Abdel-Rahman Hamed, the family attorney, contended that the claims against his clients were “baseless and inflammatory.” The attorney stated items found at the residence written in Arabic were mistranslated by police, and “cherry-picked out of a collection of hundreds and that no credible evidence of danger was ever presented.”
University of Michigan-Dearborn signals “unprecedented” cuts and layoffs - Over 150 faculty, staff and students at the University of Michigan-Dearborn (UM-D) campus gathered on Tuesday, December 3 to protest looming department cuts and staff layoffs in the upcoming winter semester. The Lecturers’ Employee Organization (LEO), the main union for over 1,800 lecturers and non-tenure-track faculty at the three University of Michigan (UM) campuses, issued a statement on November 26 that warned of major cuts and layoffs in the coming months at UM-D. The union called the protest, which was joined by members of the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) and the UM Dearborn Student Government. The LEO is affiliated to the American Federation of Teachers (AFT). Though no official announcements have been issued by the university, UM-D officials in the College of Arts, Sciences, and Letters (CASL) began quietly making significant changes to several departments after winter registration closed in mid-November. The CASL Dean’s Office canceled several upper-level courses and drastically increased the class size for many other courses, in several cases doubling the size of the classes. There are also plans to shift many classes to an online format, which will facilitate staff cuts. The moves are a clear signal that the university intends to begin implementing full and partial layoffs and force those who remain to teach much larger classes without any additional financial or logistical support. The cuts primarily target CASL students and faculty majoring and teaching in the departments of Philosophy; Journalism and Media Production; History; Writing and possibly more. In response to media inquiries by the Michigan Daily, the student newspaper, the vice chancellor for external relations, Kenneth Kettenbeil, said the CASL “is experiencing challenging financial times, like many liberal arts colleges across the country and ... the college is considering a variety options.” During the summer, UM-D Chancellor Domenico Grasso said that despite increased enrollment for the 2024-25 academic year and a 4.7 percent increase in tuition costs, the university faced “continued inflation and … a significant increase in costs related to insurance.” He added that each unit on campus had already “identified ways to reduce their spending…” The cuts and course alterations were decided in mid-November, after students and faculty had already registered and been assigned their courses for the winter semester. According to the online education newspaper Higher Ed Dive, a university spokesmen indicated that the administration will announce cuts and layoffs on December 20—during the lull between the end of the fall semester and the start of the winter semester on January 6. Significant opposition has already emerged to the cuts, including three separate online petition letters of protest issued to the university by faculty, students and community members. Collectively, the petitions have gathered nearly 1,200 signatures in less than two weeks. The lecturers at UM-D, like virtually every campus in the US, are a critical and highly exploited section of educators. They often teach courses previously taught by tenured faculty, but at much lower wages. They often enter the workforce saddled with significant student loan debt. They are dependent on teaching opportunities and wages that are almost always guaranteed for only one year, or even one semester. Their vulnerability is exploited at every turn. The lecturers’ situation reflects the turn by the ruling class toward the casualization of the university system’s labor force, both in the US and other parts of the world. This, in turn, is part of the drive to enlarge and normalize the global “gig economy.” The chair of the LEO at UM-D, Jamie Wright, acknowledged to the Michigan Daily that the lecturers are now accustomed to enduring debilitating cuts every semester. It is just that this semester’s cuts appear to be much larger than “normal.”
Universities consider influencer education for the future -- Have influencers on social media created a new career field worthy of formal education? A growing number of universities are looking at classes and majors aimed at giving influencers the skills needed to spot misinformation, communicate effectively with audiences and understand business contracts they could enter. “If people are serious about wanting to do a career in influencing or online content creation, they have to know that there is more to it,” said Jessica Maddox, co-director for the Office of Politics, Communications and Media at the University of Alabama, who has started a class on the subject called Social Media Storytelling. “And, yes, a lot of people have been incredibly successful, kind of figuring it out as they go, working hard, building a channel, paying attention to their analytics, buying the equipment and learning, but I think we, as college professors like myself, we would be remiss if we did not treat this as a skill our students need going out into the world,” Maddox added. Classes on influencing have been popping up around the country as more young people give a serious look to the $2.1 billion industry. Summer Harlow, the associate director of the Knight Center for Journalism in the Americas at the University of Texas in Austin, teamed up with UNCESCO, to create a class specifically to help influencers tackle misinformation. “We kept seeing these different voices having influence on the news,” Harlow said, so she and others “decided to launch this project to try and understand how digital content creators were changing the journalism field.” After roundtables with invested parties on the topic, the U.N.-backed partnership launched a free class for influencers. “It’s a four-week course, and it’s online. It’s free. We’re offering it in English, Spanish, Portuguese and French. We have nearly 10,000 people enrolled from 170-plus countries. It’s incredible. It’s probably one of the most successful courses that we’ve done in terms of the number of participants, and then also in terms of engagement for the very first live session that we had,” Harlow said. Meanwhile, Arkansas Tech University has created an entire major it calls the “Bachelor of Arts in Social Media Influencing,” with courses including film production, journalism and public relations. “I think it’s communication, I think it’s production and I think it’s business,” Kate Stewart, assistant professors of public relations at Jacksonville State University, said when asked what influencers could study. “I think it’s that idea where communication and marketing is going to give them the strategies and the ethical grounding to understand what they’re about to embark on as an influencer. Two, I think production is needed because it’s highly visual. They’re producing videos. They’re editing videos. They’re putting text on video. There’s a production value,” Stewart said. “And then, lastly, business, they have to understand the business behind the management companies, the agencies, the brands, the other media companies that they’re working with to be able to have the background to be successful.” But debate is ongoing over if influencers need a formal education at all — and if universities should be investing in the subject. “There’s definitely still a widespread disparagement of influencers […] there is a lack of understanding that often sort of borders on scorn, where people are quite dismissive, because they see this as a passion project, where they see this as something that is easy, not very labor-intensive or skills based,” said Brooke Erin Duffy, an associate professor in the Department of Communication at Cornell University. “And the reality is, it’s incredibly labor-intensive. It requires strategy and an understanding of the tech environment. But often, those elements of the job get concealed by the narrative that it’s ‘not real work,’” she added.
Navient Student-loan Borrowers Cancellation Special . . .Hundreds of student-loan borrowers who applied for debt cancellation are being denied relief by a major lender, over 20 Democratic lawmakers say, Ayelet Sheffey @ Business Insider.
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren led over 20 colleagues in requesting the CFPB and FTC investigate student-loan company Navient.
- They said they’re concerned that Navient might be improperly denying defrauded borrowers debt relief.
- Navient said it’s committed to getting relief to borrowers, but the discharge process is still in its early stages.
A group of Democratic lawmakers said that a major student-loan company is denying some student-loan borrowers relief for which they might qualify.Sen. Elizabeth Warren led over 20 of her Democratic colleagues, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ron Wyden, in sending a letter Wednesday to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Federal Trade Commission urging an investigation into the student-loan company Navient.In the letter, viewed exclusively by Business Insider, the lawmakers wrote that Navient’s process to cancel student loans for borrowers who said their schools defrauded them is “flawed, convoluted, and opaque,” and it may have resulted in borrowers being “improperly” denied relief they qualified for.A process known as the borrower defense to repayment allows borrowers with federal student loans to apply for debt cancellation if they believe their schools defrauded them. If approved, the government would wipe out their balances.However, borrowers with private loans held by Navient cannot access the federal process. Instead, they can request a school misconduct application from Navient, and Navient would then decide whether to approve it.The company previously said it’s committed to addressing all “valid” misconduct claims.The issue, the lawmakers wrote, is that Navient has denied relief for the majority of borrowers who applied. Navient wrote to Warren and her colleagues in a September letter, viewed by BI, that the company services about 65,000 borrowers who attended for-profit schools. As of September, Navient has sent 4,233 borrowers a school-misconduct discharge application, and 1,801 borrowers have submitted applications. Of the 1,061 applications Navient fully reviewed, 238 borrowers have been approved for relief, and 823 have been denied.Navient wrote to the lawmakers that borrowers’ applications are “carefully reviewed” by a legal team to determine eligibility for debt cancellation, and to date, it has approved over $8 million in relief. Still, the lawmakers said that the denials do not contain sufficient explanations, “leaving a fraction of Navient’s borrowers who attended predatory, for-profit colleges with the relief that they deserve.”BI previously spoke to some borrowers who have attempted to navigate Navient’s school misconduct application process. Nick Eucker, 38, said he received an application from Navient, and after submitting 200 pages worth of paperwork in support of his claim he was defrauded, Navient denied his application. The only reasoning he was provided was: “You do not meet the requirements for discharge based on misconduct by your school.”A Navient spokesperson previously said that the discharge process is still in its early stages, and the company expects more borrowers to see relief as it rolls out.Still, the lawmakers said that Navient has the authority to cancel the loans of impacted borrowers without requiring a lengthy application process.“Navient should cancel all of the private fraudulent debts for borrowers who have been harmed by its misconduct,” they wrote, “all of whom the company is able to identify without an application.”
Biden designates national monument at site of notorious Native American boarding school -- President Biden on Monday formally designated the former site of a notorious boarding school for Native American children as a national monument, issuing a formal apology for the practice of forcibly removing children to such schools. Introducing Biden at the White House Tribal Nations Summit, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the first Senate-confirmed Native American Cabinet secretary, described Biden as “the best president for Indian Country in my lifetime,” crediting the administration’s work on tribal funding and missing and murdered Indigenous women (MMIW). Biden formally declared the monument at the Pennsylvania site of the Carlisle Indian Industrial School, which was established in 1879 as the first such school outside a Native American reservation. Over the next four decades, more than 7,800 children were forced to attend the schools, where their hair was cut and they were forbidden to speak Indigenous languages or wear traditional clothing. Richard Henry Pratt, the school’s founder, notoriously described its mission as “kill the Indian, save the man.” Rough counts estimate nearly 1,000 children died in the care of the so-called industrial schools, with the actual number likely higher. In his remarks, Biden called the use of such schools “a dark chapter that spanned 150 years … in which entire generations of Native children were literally stolen from their family members and tribes and sent away to boarding schools.” “We don’t erase history, we acknowledge it and we learn from it so we never repeat it again,” the president added. “We remember so we can heal, that’s the purpose of memory.”
Studies describe vaccine efficacy against long COVID - Two new large studies, one based on outcomes among US children and teens and the other on adults in Japan, show COVID-19 vaccines are protective against long COVID. Both studies were conducted when the Omicron strain of the virus was dominant, with the first also assessing the Delta variant.In the first study, published in eClinicalMedicine, researchers measured the real-world efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccine against long COVID in children and adolescents using data from 20 US health systems collected in as part of the RECOVER PCORnet electronic health record (EHR) Program.Three cohorts were constructed: (1) adolescents 12 to 20 years old during the Delta phase (July 1 to November 30, 2021), (2) children 5 to 11 years and (3) adolescents 12 to 20 during the Omicron phase (January 1 to November 30, 2022). Outcomes were compared among those who received a first dose of the Pfizer vaccine to those with no receipt of COVID-19 vaccines.In total, 112,590 adolescents (88,811 vaccinated) were included in the cohort for the analysis against the Delta variant, and 188,894 children (101,277 vaccinated), and 84,735 adolescents (37,724 vaccinated) were included for the analysis against the Omicron variant. For adolescents during the Delta period, the estimated effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against long COVID was 95.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 90.9% to 97.7%). During Omicron, the estimated effectiveness against long COVID among children was 60.2% (95% CI, 40.3% to 73.5%), and it was 75.1% (95% CI, 50.4% to 87.5%) among adolescents.The risk reduction in developing long COVID was largely linked to reducing the risk of COVID infection in the first place. In the second study, a population-based analysis from Japan, researchers found the vaccine effectiveness of three or more doses of COVID vaccine against Omicron-related long COVID to be 30%, and against neurologic symptoms of long COVID it was 39%.The protection, however, was found only in women. The study was published yesterday in Clinical Microbiology and Infection. A total of 7,936 participants aged 20 to 69 years, who were infected from July 1 to August 31, 2022, were included in the study. Of those, 940 (11.8%) had at least one post-COVID, or long-COVID, symptom, according to a self-administered questionnaire.Participants who had three or more COVID-19 vaccine doses had a 30% lower probability of long-COVID symptoms, with the odds ratio (OR) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.90), although there was no association with one or two doses.Furthermore, the risk reduction was seen in women with three or more COVID vaccine doses but not in men.
XBB COVID vaccine estimated to be 63% to 68% effective against more severe illness in kids | CIDRAP The adjusted effectiveness of the updated Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 XBB vaccine in the 2023-24 US respiratory virus season was 68% and 63% against hospitalization or emergency department (ED) or urgent-care visits among children aged 5 to 11 years and 12 to 17 years, respectively, with an overall effectiveness for both age-groups of 65%, a Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC)-led research team estimates.The investigators conducted a test-negative case-control analysis to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-related hospital admission and ED or urgent care visits among children aged 5 to 11 (using a 10-microgram [μg] formulation) and 12 to 17 years (30 μg) with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) from October through April 2024 at KPSC facilities. Case-patients had tested positive for COVID-19, and controls were uninfected.Of 15,233 healthcare visits for ARI among children ages 5 to 17 years meeting eligibility criteria, 48.2% were girls, 9.5% were Asian or Pacific Islander, 8.9% were Black, 57.5% were Hispanic, and 17.6% were White.The research findings were published today in JAMA Network Open."Vaccine effectiveness of XBB messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccines against mild to severe outcomes has been shown for adults in multiple global settings," the study authors wrote. "However, data describing the effectiveness of updated COVID-19 vaccines in children are scarce." Of 15,233 ARI healthcare visits, 9,834 were among 5- to11-year-olds (334 hospital admissions [3.4%], 4,377 ED visits [44.5%], and 5,123 urgent care visits [52.1%]). Among 12- to 17-year-olds, there were 5,399 healthcare encounters (125 hospital admissions [2.3%], 1,953 ED visits [36.2%], and 3,321 urgent care visits [61.5%]). A total of 336 of 9,834 5- to 11-year-olds (3.4%) and 388 of 5,399 12- to 17-year-olds (7.2%) tested positive for COVID-19. In the full cohort, 1,125 children (7.4%) received an XBB vaccine by study end; 339 of 9,834 5- to 11-year-olds (3.4%) and 264 of 5,399 12- to 17-year-olds (4.9%) received the vaccine. The median times since vaccination were 75 days and 64.5 days, respectively. Estimated adjusted VE among participants aged 5 to 11 and 12 to 17 years was 68% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11% to 88%) and 63% (95% CI, 20% to 83%) against COVID-19 hospitalization or ED or urgent care visits, respectively, for an overall estimated VE for both age-groups of 65% (95% CI, 36% to 81%). No COVID-19 hospitalizations occurred among vaccine recipients. VE was generally similar for all age-groups if results were restricted only to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests or if antigen test results were used only to identify cases.The US COVID-19 hospitalization rate among 5- to 17-year-olds was about 10.5 per 100,000 during the study period. "Assuming 65% vaccine effectiveness, vaccinating the roughly 54.3 million 5-to-17-year–olds in the US could have averted approximately 3,700 hospitalizations and, using the approximately 30:1 ratio of hospitalizations to ED or urgent care visits we observed in our study, roughly 111,000 ED or urgent care visits during the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season," the researchers wrote.
About 8% of US adults have ever had long COVID, survey finds --A study today demonstrates that last year, about 8% of US adults reported that they ever had long COVID, and those who currently had the condition or currently had activity-limiting long COVID were both under 4%, but a leading US expert on long COVID explains the limitations of such data and why estimates of the prevalence of the condition can vary so widely.And he notes that, even when considering low estimated long-COVID rates, as in today's study, when the percentages are applied to the population as a whole, the impact is massive.Long COVID—also known as post-COVID condition (PCC)—is generally defined as having symptoms 3 months or longer after an acute COVID-19 infection.The study, published as a research letter in JAMA Network Open by scientists from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), involved 29,522 US adult respondents to the National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative household survey.For the survey, investigators randomly selected one adult from each eligible household to answer more detailed questions about their health. The response rate was 47%. The selected adults were asked whether they had ever had COVID-19, if they had symptoms lasting 3 months or more that they didn't have before COVID-19, if they had symptoms now, and whether these current symptoms limited their ability to carry out daily tasks compared with pre-COVID. The authors didn't specify what percentage of respondents self-reported COVID-19, but CDC serology datareveal that, by the end of 2023, 87.2% of Americans had infection-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, indicating a previous infection.The study authors reported that 8.4% of the adults said they ever had long COVID, 3.6% currently had long COVID, and 2.3% currently had activity-limiting long COVID. In 2022, 6.9% said they had ever had long COVID, and 3.4% reported it at the time of the interview. The third question was new in 2023.They researchers also noted, "Significant differences across all 3 outcomes were observed by sex, sexual orientation, age, race and Hispanic origin, family income, and urbanization." They said the prevalence of all three outcomes decreased with higher family income and was higher in rural residents.
HHS secretary extends duration for COVID PREP Act declaration -- US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra today signed the 12th amendment to the declaration under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act (PREP) Act for COVID-19 countermeasures, a step that provides liability immunity through December 31, 2029.The declaration provides immunity, except for willful misconduct, for certain claims, including loss caused by or related to administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats, or conditions, according to information from the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), which is part of HHS. The immunity applies to situations deemed by the HHS secretary as a present or credible risk of a future public health emergency. It also applies to groups or individuals involved in development, production, testing, distribution, and administration of countermeasures.The PREP Act was enacted in 2005 to help protect pharmaceutical companies from financial risk in the event of a declared public health emergency. The act also provides funding for pandemic influenza preparedness. ASPR notes that the PREP Act declaration is different from and not dependent on other emergency declarations. Similar PREP Act declarations are currently in effect for countermeasures against a range of other biological or chemical threats, including mpox and other orthopox viruses, viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola, nerve agents and insecticides, Zika virus, pandemic flu, anthrax, acute radiation syndrome, and botulinum toxin.
Most COVID vaccine–hesitant Dutch adults later changed their mind, report suggests --Of more than 12,000 adults in the Netherlands who were reluctant or unwilling to be vaccinated against COVID-19 when vaccines were first rolled out, 86% and 34% were either vaccinated or said they would be, according to a study in BMC Public Health.
- A new risk evaluation for the XEC SARS-CoV-2 variant from the World Health Organization (WHO) and its Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution says the additional public health risk is low. XEC is a recombinant of two JN.1 lineages, KS.1.1 and KP.3.3, that was first detected in late June and designated as a variant under monitoring (VUM) on September 24. Currently, it is the only virus on the WHO’s VUM list that is increasing in prevalence globally. The group said due to limited escape from JN.1 or KP.2 booster vaccines, continued spread from the XEC variant alone is unlikely to increase the burden on national public health systems compared to other Omicron sublineages.
- At a briefing today on three main emerging health threats in the WHO Americas region, the head of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) raised concerns about rising dengue virus, Oropouche virus, and H5N1 avian flu cases but said there are effective strategies for battling the outbreaks. Jarbas Barbosa, MD, PAHO’s director, said the region this year has experienced record dengue activity since record-keeping began in 1980, with 12.6 million cases reported so far, nearly three times the number reported in 2023. The region has seen about 21,000 severe cases and more than 7,700 deaths, with Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico reporting most of the cases. He also noted the officials have noted a greater impact on children, with 70% of deaths reported in that age-group in countries such as Guatemala.
- Finland’s Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) has identified type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) in wastewater samples from Tampere, the Helsinki Times reported yesterday. Leif Lakoma, MD, MPH, the THL’s chief physician, told the Times that the country reported a similar finding 10 years ago and that the detection is rare but not unexpected. Finland is the fourth European country to report the detection of the virus in wastewater over the past few months. Others include Spain, Poland, and Germany.
Pediatric RSV vaccine trials on hold, FDA says -A briefing document from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) says that enrollment for all clinical studies of vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infants is on hold over concerns about potential safety findings from a clinical trial involving two vaccine candidates.The document, released ahead of a meeting tomorrow of the FDA's Vaccine and Related Biologic Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC), revealed that a phase 1 trial evaluating the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of two Moderna RSV vaccine candidates (mRNA-1365 and mRNA-1345) in infants aged 5 months to 8 months was paused in July after five cases of severe to very severe lower RSV respiratory tract infection (LRTI) were reported in infants who received a 15-microgram (μg) dose of mRNA-1345 (3 cases) or a 15-μg dose of mRNA-1365 (2 cases), compared with 1 case in the placebo group. Five of the 6 infants required hospitalization, with 1 needing mechanical ventilation."The observed imbalance in severe/very severe cases of RSV LRTI in the mRNA-1345 and mRNA-1365 vaccine development program among 5-month to <8-month-old recipients of mRNA-1345 (15 μg) and mRNA-1365 (15 μg) has uncertain implications for the ongoing and future pediatric development of other non-live attenuated RSV vaccines," the FDA said.Moderna was made aware of the safety signal and paused further enrollment on July 17 and notified the FDA of the study-wide pause on July 19, according to the document. The FDA then put a clinical hold on the trial. On September 12, Moderna announced that the RSV program for seronegative children—those without detectable RSV antibodies—younger than 2 years old was listed under discontinued programs.The trial also found that vaccine immune responses in infants who received mRNA-1345 and had previously been exposed to the monoclonal antibody nirsevimab were blunted compared with those who had not received nirsevimab, suggesting a possible interaction. Marketed under the brand name mRESVIA, mRNA-1345 was approved by the FDA in May for use in adults aged 60 and older. It's one of three RSV vaccines that have been licensed for adults and pregnant women within the past 2 years. Moderna is conducting a phase 1 trial of mRNA-1365 as combination vaccine for RSV and human metapneumovirus.The observed imbalance in severe/very severe cases of RSV LRTI in the mRNA-1345 and mRNA-1365 vaccine development program among 5-month to <8-month-old recipients of mRNA-1345 (15 μg) and mRNA-1365 (15 μg) has uncertain implications for the ongoing and future pediatric development of other non-live attenuated RSV vaccines.The need for a pediatric vaccine for RSV, which is the leading cause of infant hospitalization in the United States, is clear. But the briefing document notes that this isn't the first time pediatric RSV vaccine development has been stalled over safety concerns. In the 1960s, administration of a formalin-inactivated RSV vaccine resulted in two infant deaths from vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory disease (VAERD). Since then, pediatric studies of RSV vaccines have proceeded cautiously owing to concerns over the risk of VAERD.
Indicators show US flu and COVID activity rising -- Flu activity continues to rise, and COVID-19 indicators are also starting to rise from very low levels, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly respiratory virus illness updates.For flu, the test positivity rate rose to 5.1% at clinical labs last week, up from 3.5% the previous week, and it is increasing across 8 of 10 regions of the country. Emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalization rates also rose, and outpatient visits for flulike illness are at 3.4% and are now above the national baseline. Six jurisdictions reported high activity, a measure of outpatient visits for flu: California, Oregon, Arizona, Louisiana, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia.At public health labs, more than 97% of flu virus detections were influenza A, and, of subtyped samples, about 60% were H3N2 and nearly 40% were 2009 H1N1.The highest hospitalization rate was in seniors. No new pediatric flu deaths were reported, keeping the season's total at two.In its respiratory virus snapshot, the CDC said the overall respiratory virus illness level remains moderate for the second week in a row. The agency noted that COVID activity—as reflected by wastewater detections, ED visits, and test positivity—is starting to rise in some parts of the country from low levels. "We predict COVID-19 illness to increase in the coming weeks, as it usually does in the winter," the CDC said.Wastewater detections are still in the low range and are highest in the Midwest, followed by the West and the South.Meanwhile, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity continues to increase in most US regions, especially in young children, the CDC said. RSV-related ED visits and hospitalizations are rising in children, with hospitalizations on the rise in older adults in some areas.
More than 2,000 people hospitalised as UK faces "quad-demic" including COVID -- The winter season has opened with Britain’s population hit by four respiratory illnesses—dubbed the “quad-demic”—including the COVID-19 virus. The illnesses, which spread at different times during winter, also include the flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and norovirus. On December 5, National Health Service England issued a statement headlined, “Hospitals managing record flu levels going into Winter”, warning, “NHS fears of a potential ‘quad-demic’ are rising with a 350% increase in flu cases and an 86% rise in norovirus cases in hospital compared to same week last year—alongside concerns about rising COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)c levels in hospitals.” The agency’s first report of the winter warned, “New weekly figures published today for the first time this year show the NHS is going into winter under more pressure than ever before with an average of 1,099 people in hospital with flu every day last week compared to 243 in the same week last year—the highest number of cases heading into winter for at least three years.” Of the 1,099 hospitalised, 39 were in critical care, compared to nine last year. NHS England statement: "Hospitals managing record flu levels going into Winter" [Photo: screenshot from NHS England web site] The NHS England alert included a statement from national medical director Professor Sir Stephen Powis who said, “The NHS is busier than it has ever been before heading into winter, with flu and norovirus numbers in hospital rising sharply—and we are still only at the start of December, so we expect pressure to increase and there is a long winter ahead of us.” Calling for everyone who was eligible to be vaccinated he explained, “For a while there have been warnings of a ‘tripledemic’ of COVID-19, flu and RSV this winter, but with rising cases of norovirus this could fast become a ‘quad-demic’.” The statements by NHS England and Powis point to the terrible situation facing a health service systematically underfunded for decades, with staff run off their feet and unable to cope with demand for treatment. As noted in the NHS report, “a record number of patients were in hospital for this time of year, with an average of 96,587 hospital beds occupied each day.” The fact that COVID continues to spread, 20 months after the World Health Organisation said in May 2023 that it was no longer a public health emergency, is an indictment of the capitalist governments internationally who had by that point already torn up every major mitigation in place against the disease. The situation report found there were an average of 1,390 patients with COVID in hospital beds each day last week. Several hundred people are still dying of the disease every week. As seen on the banner at the National Covid Memorial Wall in London—the COVID death toll in Britain, to November 22—stands at almost 246,000.
Study shows global decline in antimicrobial use during COVID pandemic was short-lived - An analysis of global antimicrobial sales data suggests the decline in outpatient antimicrobial consumption (AMC) during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic was transient and likely linked to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, Japanese researchers reported last week inClinical Microbiology and Infection.Using the IQVIA MIDAS database, researchers from Japan's National Center for Global Health and Medicine examined monthly antimicrobial sales for 69 countries, comparing the change rate of AMC for 2020 over 2019, 2021 over 2020, and 2022 over 2021. While several studies have documented global decreases in AMC in 2020 and 2021, the persistence of the downward trend is unknown at the global level. But the study authors note that research by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has shown a significant rebound in US AMC in 2022."If this reversal were in fact a global trend, it would mean that the success of AMR [antimicrobial resistance] control efforts is in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which in turn means that we must continue, as before, to focus on AMR countermeasures," they wrote. Of the 68 countries that had one or more changepoints in AMC after 2020, 61 experienced a decrease after the pandemic started in 2020, and 53 of 61 showed a reverse increasing trend in 2022. An interrupted time series analysis of G7 countries showed a decreasing trend in AMC after those countries implemented movement restrictions, and an increasing trend after restrictions were lifted. The authors say the decreasing trend in antimicrobial use following implementation of movement restrictions was likely the result of fewer medical consultations and an indirect decrease in unnecessary antimicrobial use among the general population. "In other words, this global decrease was not due to COVID-19 itself but was a consequence of the change in the healthcare-seeking behaviour of the general population, in addition to the reduced prevalence of infectious diseases caused by NPIs which include not only movement restrictions but also school closures, face covering recommendations and so forth," they wrote.
Study links low socioeconomic status to severe disease in hospitalized flu patients **Socially vulnerable adults hospitalized for influenza required invasive mechanical ventilation and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support at greater rates than their higher-income counterparts during five respiratory virus seasons in the United States, concludes a study published in JAMA Network Open. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-led study used data from the US Census and the CDC's Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network of counties in 13 states to assess death rates and the use of respiratory interventions, flu vaccinations, and antiviral prescriptions among 57,964 hospitalized flu patients from 2014 to 2019. "Influenza may disproportionately impact socially vulnerable populations, ie, people with community factors that limit disease prevention and management, such as poverty, discrimination, reduced transportation, and dense housing," the researchers noted. "Social determinants can contribute to preventable differences in disease burden and health opportunities." Social vulnerability was greater for patients who were from the Western Census region (relative change from lowest to highest vulnerability, 12.0%), women (6.3%), Hispanic (339.3%), Black (504.9%), or American Indian/Alaska Native (166.7%). People living in socially vulnerable areas had higher rates of invasive mechanical ventilation and/or ECMO (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR], 1.25), primarily due to socioeconomic status (aPR, 1.31) and household composition and disability (aPR, 1.20). Receipt of these interventions was partially mediated by vaccination status, the presence of chronic conditions, and respiratory symptoms. Among patients of all ages, the proportion of deaths dropped 16.7% as social vulnerability increased, except for those aged 18 to 49 years, in whom deaths climbed 134.3% as social vulnerability increased. The percentage of patients receiving flu vaccines fell 19.4% with increasing social vulnerability, and the percentage vaccinated by October 31 declined 6.8%. Early in-hospital antiviral initiation and prehospital antiviral receipt decreased 1.0% and 17.3%, respectively, along with greater vulnerability. The results support that low socioeconomic status is linked to reduced access to flu vaccines and prehospitalization antivirals and higher proportions of asthma, chronic lung disease, and more respiratory signs and symptoms, the authors said.
Review reveals 22 viruses, some with pandemic potential, in semen -A new systematic review of 373 studies reveals the detection of 22 viruses in human semen following acute infection, including pathogens with pandemic potential. The study was published yesterday in The Lancet Microbe, and shows that only 9 of the 22 viruses had evidence of sexual transmission.The persistence of viruses in semen has far-reaching implications for ongoing disease transmission, embryonic development and fertility, and the development of drugs and vaccines, the authors said. Infectious semen has also contributed to recent outbreaks of Zika virus disease, Ebola virus disease, and mpox.In this review, the authors examined evidence of viruses in semen as well as viral persistence, or how many days after the onset of illnesses that viruses are viable in semen.In addition to the 22 viruses present in semen following acute infection, 3 others—Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, hantavirus causing hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, and Heartland virus—were detected in other parts of the human male reproductive tract, but not in semen. Hepatitis A virus and vaccinia virus showed evidence for sexual transmission but no evidence for detection in the semen or elsewhere in the male reproductive tract.Ebola virus had the longest viral persistence, detected 988 days after discharge from an Ebola treatment unit and 965 days after onset of illness, in separate studies, the authors saidThe maximum detection of Zika virus in semen was 941 days after onset of illness, but the median persistence was 57 days after onset of illness. The shortest duration was 8 days after onset of illness for Kyasanur Forest disease. Maximal detection time for other viruses was 21 days for yellow fever virus, 22 days for West Nile virus, and 37 days for dengue virus."We found considerable variability between individuals with regard to the duration of persistence of virus in the semen, alongside substantial uncertainty in the duration of persistence in each individual," the authors wrote.In related news, Dutch researchers yesterday reported the detection of Oropouche virus genome in semen and other body fluids in a traveler. Oropouche-specific Immunoglobulin M has recently been detected in 6 of 68 newborns with microcephaly (small head and brain), and vertical (mom-to-fetus) transmission of the virus has led to fetal death.The report, published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, was based on samples from a male patient returning to the Netherlands from Cuba in August 2024. The patient recovered from illness, but the virus genome was still detectable in all samples except feces (urine, blood, and semen) up to 32 days after symptom onset. Sexual transmission of the virus has not yet been determined, but the authors said their findings indicate its potential.
Novel strain of extensively drug-resistant Shigella identified in Los Angeles -A paper published yesterday in the American Journal of Infection Control describes a small cluster of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Shigellacases in California. The three cases of XDR Shigella sonnei were identified in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Los Angeles who all presented with symptoms within 3 months of one another in 2023. All three men had reported histories of high-risk sexual behavior, and one was HIV-positive. Stool tests confirmed S sonnei infection, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing results showed resistance to azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and ampicillin, meeting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition of XDR. Because the temporal proximity of the cases prompted concerns for a potential outbreak, whole-genome sequencing of S sonnei isolates from the patients was performed. The results showed all three cases were highly genetically related, carried similar antimicrobial resistance genes (including blaCTX-M-15), and belonged to an S sonnei lineage that's distinct from other globally circulating strains. "The discovery of a novel XDR S. sonnei actively spreading in Los Angeles is alarming," researchers from the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote. "While most people recover from Shigella infections without antibiotics, patients who require treatment and who fail to respond to usual antibiotics such as ciprofloxacin and azithromycin may need alternate treatment regimens." Shigellosis is a highly infectious gastrointestinal condition caused by one of the four species of Shigella bacteria: S sonnei, S flexneri, S boydii, or S dysenteriae. It's transmitted by the oral-fecal route; via contaminated fomites, food, and water; or by direct person-to-person contact. Though small, the outbreak is one of a growing number of XDR Shigella outbreaks that have occurred in recent years in Europe, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. These outbreaks have primarily occurred among MSM and homeless populations. The authors say their study provides "timely and deeper insights" into the spread of XDR Shigella in the United States.
Report describes spread of highly drug-resistant cholera strain --A highly drug-resistant strain of cholera appears to be spreading in East Africa, researchers reported yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine.In a letter to the editor, a team led by researchers from France's Institut Pasteur say the AFR13 7PET strain of Vibrio cholerae O1 is resistant to 10 antibiotics, including azithromycin and ciprofloxacin and third-generation cephalosporins. Azithromycin and ciprofloxacin are two of the three recommended antibiotics, in addition to doxycycline, for treating cholera. Cholera causes severe diarrhea and dehydration that can quickly become life-threatening if not treated. While mild cases are primarily treated using oral rehydration solution, more severe cases may need antibiotics.The AFR 7PET strain belongs to a lineage of V cholerae that was introduced into East Africa from South Asia in 2013-2014, the researchers say. But it was first identified in a massive cholera outbreak in Yemen that began in 2018 and sickened more than 2 million people. It was also confirmed in cholera cases in southern and eastern Lebanon in 2022.Using data from cholera surveillance systems of several European countries, the researchers found that the AFR 7PET strain has now spread to East Africa. They identified isolates belonging to the strain in European travelers returning from Kenya in 2023, and in 2024 in cholera patients on the French Island of Mayotte, which is located off the coast of southeastern Africa. The cases in Mayotte were initially in patients who had come from Tanzania and Comoros.The researchers suspect that the strain has contributed to major cholera outbreaks in Kenya in 2022 and in Tanzania and Comoros in 2024 but say the extent of its involvement needs to be confirmed.The report comes amid a rise in global cholera cases that began in 2021. According to the most recent World Health Organization (WHO) update, 486,760 cholera and acute watery diarrhea cases and 4,018 deaths were reported from 33 countries across five WHO regions from January to October 27, 2024.Although the WHO report shows cases are down this year, the number of cholera deaths in October were 54% higher than in October 2023. The WHO says the spike in deaths may be attributed in part to where cholera outbreaks have occurred this year, such as conflict-affected areas where access to healthcare is compromised, regions where massive flooding has damaged critical infrastructure, and areas with inadequate medical facilities.The authors of the letter say the findings call for real-time, transborder surveillance of the AFR13 7PET strain."This study demonstrates the need to strengthen global surveillance of the cholera agent, and especially to determine how it reacts to antibiotics in real time," senior author Francois-Xavier Weill, MD, PhD, said in an Institut Pasteur news release. "If the new strain that is currently circulating acquires additional resistance to tetracycline, this would compromise all possible oral antibiotic treatment."
Three nations report more polio cases; UK notes wastewater detections --In its latest weekly update, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said Pakistan's latest three WPV1 patients had paralysis onsets in November and were from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh provinces. Pakistan is one of two countries where WPV1 is still endemic and, like Afghanistan, has reported a sharp rise in cases this year. For 2024, the country has now reported 59 cases. A media report today from Pakistan said four additional cases have been reported, which would raise the country's total to 63.Elsewhere, two African countries reported more cVDPV2 cases. Chad reported 2 illnesses with paralysis onsets in September and October, putting its total for the year at 22. Nigeria reported 5 more cases, all with October paralysis onsets, boosting its number for 2024 to 86.GPEI also reported advance notifications of wastewater detections in the United Kingdom and Finland. The detection in Finland was reported by the media earlier this week. The UK detections are from samples collected in November from London, Leeds, and East Worthing. Five European countries have recently detected cVDPV 2 in wastewater. Germany, which reported its initial detections earlier this month, confirmed six more wastewater isolates collected in November from six different cities: Bonn, Dresden, Duesseldorf, Hamburg, Cologne, and Mainz. The GPEI said all are linked to a strain that originated in Nigeria's Zamfara state. The group added that all five European countries that have reported detections, which also includes Spain and Poland, have strong disease surveillance and high routine immunization levels. In its report, the GPEI also reported six more positive environmental samples in Gaza, an area that reported a human case this summer, which prompted a vaccine drive in the area.
Cryptococcus virulence study lays the groundwork for future treatments - Ultimately, the goal is to find ways to stop deadly disease caused by Cryptococcus neoformans from developing in humans and animals. But until that time, finding new and better ways to treat already existent disease and its symptoms is a high priority. The laboratory of Kirsten Nielsen in the Center for One Health Research has taken a step toward improved treatment of Cryptococcus, completing a six-year study to examine the virulence of 38 clinical isolates from various strains of Cryptococcus. The results are published in Nature Communications. "The question that we've been addressing is: Can we predict severe disease outcomes in patients?" said Nielsen, professor of microbiology and immunology in the Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine. "If we can predict disease outcome, then we can treat patients better. In these studies, we identified not just the genes that allow Cryptococcus to cause disease, but also the gene alleles that allow it to cause more disease or less disease."Cryptococcus neoformans is a type of fungus that can cause serious infections in humans and many animal species. It's commonly found in the environment, especially in soil contaminated with bird droppings. When a person inhales the microscopic spores of Cryptococcus, it can lead to an infection called cryptococcosis. This infection often affects the lungs and can spread to the brain. People with compromised immune systems, such as those with HIV/AIDS or organ transplant recipients, are at higher risk."We're setting the foundation for future treatments," Nielsen said. "Once we understand the biology of the infection, and how it is influenced by different Cryptococcus gene alleles, then we can develop new treatments targeting these genes." Nielsen said that the entire genome of each strain was sequenced to find what genes were associated with varying intensities of disease in a mouse model that mimics human disease. The work of further identifying disease impacts and their genetic causes and, potentially, improved treatments for disease will move forward from this study."Some of our African collaborators are going to develop diagnostic tests that will identify the allele differences in the genes that we've identified. The hope is that these diagnostic tests can be used in the clinic to predict disease severity and how that should affect treatment strategy," Nielsen said. "My group is also going to be looking more closely at the function of the genes we've identified and how they are influencing disease."
Toxoplasma gondii parasite uses unconventional method to make proteins for evasion of drug treatment, research reveals - A study by Indiana University School of Medicine researchers sheds new light on how Toxoplasma gondii parasites make the proteins they need to enter a dormant stage that allows them to escape drug treatment. The research ispublished in the Journal of Biological Chemistry. Toxoplasma gondii is a single-celled parasite that people catch from cat feces, unwashed produce or undercooked meat. The parasite has infected up to one-third of the world's population, and after causing mild illness, it persists by entering a dormant phase housed in cysts throughout the body, including the brain. Toxoplasma cysts have been linked to behavior changes and neurological disorders like schizophrenia. They can also reactivate when the immune system is weakened, causing life-threatening organ damage.While drugs are available to put toxoplasmosis into remission, there is no way to clear the infection. A better understanding of how the parasite develops into cysts would help scientists find a cure.Through years of collaborative work, Professors Bill Sullivan, Ph.D., and Ronald C. Wek, Ph.D., have shown that Toxoplasma forms cysts by altering which proteins are made. Proteins govern the fate of cells and are encoded by mRNAs."But mRNAs can be present in cells without being made into protein," Sullivan said. "We've shown that Toxoplasma switches which mRNAs are made into protein when converting into cysts."
Precision engineering enables design of virus-like particles that can deliver genetic material into cells -Scientists from NPL, working in collaboration with AI experts from IBM and the Science and Technology facilities Council (STFC) Hartree Center, are applying the principles of precision engineering of biological systems to enable the design of artificial virus-like particles capable of encapsulating genes.Such particles, known as virions, can be used to deliver desired genetic materialinto cells with broad ranging applications including gene therapy and engineering biology. Delivering drugs specifically to the required site of action poses substantial challenges and is key to drugdevelopment where scientists seek to enable a desired therapeutic effect without causing negative side-effects. This work has the potential to contribute solutions to this challenge.The new study, published in ACS Nano, addresses specific challenges in virion design using approaches that are not observed in virus biology.The approach uses naturally occurring amino acids—the building blocks of proteins. Specifically, the virions are formed from (L-amino acids) assembling alternately with their mirror reflections, known as D-amino acids, which assemble to create virus-like shells which can be designed to enclose nucleic acids of different sizes.The work will have a wide range of applications but is currently being exploited most notably in applications such as personalized medicine and gene therapy. Alternative synthetic virion shells have also been shown to have antimicrobial activity, providing the potential for development of a new class of antibiotic alternatives.
As mpox cases rise in Africa, first doses of Japanese vaccine expected next week --Africa saw a notable jump in mpox cases last week, with a continuing rise in novel clade 1b detections and shifts in transmission status in affected countries, the head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today at a weekly briefing. m Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, the agency's director, said 3,545 cases were reported last week, up from 2,708 the previous week. Most were from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the outbreak's epicenter. Thirty-seven new deaths were reported, similar to the 36 reported the week before. The outbreaks, which have affected 20 African countries, are driven by clade 1a and the novel clade 1b virus. Kaseya said detections of clade 1b have been steadily rising since the middle of July. Activity continues to fluctuate, with two countries with controlled transmission—the Republic of Congo and Ghana—returning to active transmission status. Meanwhile, six countries have shifted from active to the controlled stage: Gabon, Guinea, South Africa, Morocco, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Angola, one of the recently affected countries, has now recorded nine cases over the past 3 weeks. Cases are from two northwestern provinces, Luanda and Uige. Kaseya said sequencing is under way to determine the clade. In other developments, Dieudonne Mwamba, MD, PhD, director-general of the National Institute of Public Health within the DRC's health ministry, said the first doses of the LC16 vaccine donated by Japan are expected to arrive in the DRC next week. Japan had earlier announced a donation of about 3 million doses of the vaccine from its stockpile, along with a supply of bifurcated needles used to administer the vaccine. Mwamba added that, as part of the delivery, healthcare workers will be trained on how to use the bifurcated needles. Arrival of the vaccine will fill a gap in vaccinating young children, given that it can be used on children as young as 1 year old. The Bavarian Nordic vaccine, already in use in the DRC, Rwanda, and Nigeria, is indicated only for people ages 12 and older, though a safety and immunogenicity study is under way in children ages 2 to 12 years old.
Trial stops enrollment after Tpoxx fails to speed clade 2 mpox healing or pain relief ---Patients are no longer being enrolled in the Study of Tecovirimat for Mpox (STOMP) randomized clinical trial (RCT) after an interim analysis showed that the antiviral drug (brand name, Tpoxx) didn't speed lesion healing or pain relief in adults with mild to moderate clade 2 mpox at low risk for severe illness, report the study sponsor, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and Tpoxx developer Siga Technologies, Inc.While no safety signals were detected during the study, the study's Data Safety and Monitoring Board recommended halting enrollment after an additional assessment showed the chance was less than 1% that the study would demonstrate efficacy if enrollment and follow-up were completed. The NIAID also closed enrollment into an open-label study arm for patients at high risk for severe disease, which was not designed to estimate Tpoxx's effectiveness."Before 2022, no treatment candidate had been studied in people with mpox, and this trial is a critical step in our systematic evaluation of existing antivirals like tecovirimat while pursuing novel antivirals and antibody-based mpox therapeutics," NIAID Director Jeanne Marrazzo, MD, MPH, said in the agency news release.Mpox spreads primarily through close contact such as sex. A clade 2 subtype mpox virus caused a global outbreak in 2022 primarily in men who have sex with men and still circulates at low levels. The World Health Organization declared this year's clade 1 outbreak in Central and East African countries a public health emergency of international concern. This outbreak is hitting children especially hard. Travel-related cases of clade 1 mpox have been reported around the world, with the first US case diagnosed on November 15. People with significantly weakened immune systems or certain skin conditions, children, and pregnant women are at higher risk for severe mpox. Tpoxx, which Siga developed with the US government, received US Food and Drug Administration approval for the treatment of smallpox, a close relation of mpox, in 2018.
Officials continue probe on DR Congo mystery illness - Officials from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have still not been able to identify the pathogen causing an outbreak of a mysterious respiratory virus in a remote region of the country.The World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday 31 people have died and 406 people have been sickened by the illness, which causes fever, headache, cough, runny nose, and body aches.The WHO said that severe malnourishment has been linked to severe cases of the illness, and the majority of cases reported are among children under 5 years. The case-fatality rate is 7.6%. Seventy-percent of deaths have been in children below the age of 15, with 54.8% of the total in children under the age of 5 years. Roughly 60% of all case-patients are female. The outbreak is occurring in Panzi health zone in Kwango Province, located in the southwest corner of the country."The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season,” the WHO said. “Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours.”Cases were first identified on October 24 and new cases have been reported as recently as December 5. WHO said it seems the outbreak peaked, however, during the week of November 9.The area has uncontrolled malaria spread, the WHO said, and extreme food insecurity in addition to limited access to vaccine and diagnostic care.“There is a lack of supplies and transportation means and shortage of health staff in the area,” the WHO said. The WHO said current health workers dispatched to the area are both treating patients and trying to find the cause of the outbreak. The most clinical presentation is general, with almost all patients reporting fever (96.5%), cough (87.9%), fatigue (60.9%), and a running nose (57.8%).“Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor,” the WHO said. The WHO said they were also considering acute pneumonia (respiratory tract infection) and hemolytic uremic syndrome from. Escherichia coli infection as possible causes of the outbreak.
Initial samples in DR Congo unexplained outbreak positive for malaria - Initial test results from samples patients in an unexplained illness outbreak in a remote part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) found malaria from several samples, though it's possible that more than one disease in involved, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said today at a briefing in Geneva. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said that, of 12 samples, 10 were positive for malaria. He added that more samples will be collected and tested to determine the exact cause or causes. So far, 416 cases and 31 deaths have been reported in Panzi health district, a remote region in southwestern DRC, located about 425 miles from Kinshasa. Most cases involve children younger than 14 years old. A national expert team arrived today after a several-day trip to assist a Kwango province team that has been on the ground since November 30, Tedros said. Telecommunications in the area are severely limited, and difficult access to the outbreak region has been made worse by the rainy season. "The area also suffers from high levels of malnutrition and low vaccination coverage, leaving children vulnerable to a range of diseases including malaria, pneumonia, measles and others," he said. Abdi Mahamud, MD, interim director of alert and response coordination for the WHO, said malaria is endemic in the area and the rainy season has come with an increase in respiratory diseases within expected levels. For example, he said Kinshasa is seeing a rise in flu and COVID activity. He said the epidemiologic data don't show an explosive increase in cases or deaths. He added, however, that the high infant mortality shows that the issue needs to be addressed in Panzi and other vulnerable regions.
Cases rise in unexplained DR Congo outbreak amid testing challenges -- Over the past week, 147 more cases were reported in an unexplained outbreak in a remote region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), according to the latest data today from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). At a weekly briefing, Africa CDC Director Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, said cases are up from 111 reported during the previous week. "This means we have a major public health issue in the DRC," he said. Nearly 42% of the cases have been reported in children younger than 5 years old. One more death was reported in the previous week, which involved a child younger than 5 years. So far, 32 deaths have been documented at healthcare facilities, and investigations are under way to determine if 44 deaths reported at the community level are related to the outbreak. Though malaria was reported in some of the initial samples, the lab investigation into the cause or causes of the outbreak is far from complete, facing difficult obstacles in getting samples to the National Institute for Biomedical Research (INRB) in Kinshasa for testing. An official from the lab told Africa CDC that samples it received on December 7 are poor quality, with blood and serum samples poorly preserved and some showing hemolysis. The lab didn't receive any nasopharyngeal samples. Kaseya said a team went back to Panzi health zone to collect more samples, which took 3 days due the remote location and difficult road conditions. Dieudonne Mwamba, MD, PhD, director-general of the National Institute of Public Health within the DRC's health ministry, said the team collected 78 more samples, which includes several types. They are on their way to the lab in Kinshasa. He said officials anticipate more definitive results sometime over the next week.
More Listeria cases, 1 more death tied to Yu Shang Food - Last week the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced 8 new cases (19 total), 8 new hospitalizations (17 total), and 1 more death (2 total) in a Listeria outbreak tied to Yu Shang Food ready-to-eat meat and poultry products. All products produced prior to October 28, 2024, have been recalled by Yu Shang Food, Inc, a Spartanburg, South Carolina establishment. In late November the company said it had recalled 72,240 pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products. Ten of the cases have been identified in California. Both Illinois and Tennessee report two cases, and Oregon, Nevada, Georgia, and New York each report a single case. The first illnesses related to this case date back to 2021. Of the 19 patients, 17 (89%) have been hospitalized. All 19 case-patients are Asian, and 68% are female. Seven cases have been related to pregnancy. According to the CDC, one woman who was pregnant was sick and recovered, and two unrelated infants were also sick and recovered. In California, one pregnant woman and her twins were sick, and both infants died. In Tennessee, a mother and her infant were sick, and her infant died. "The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses. This is because some people recover without medical care and are not tested for Listeria," the CDC said.
Barbados reports Oropouche virus cases as CDC ups travel advisory for Brazil hot spot --The Barbados Ministry of Health and Wellness recently reported two cases of Oropouche virus, both involving adults. The report didn't specify if the cases were locally acquired or imported, but officials advised the public to take precautions against mosquito and insect bites. The disease is spread by biting midges and some mosquito species.Earlier this week, officials from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) raised concerns about the spread of Oropouche virus in the Americas, along with dengue and avian flu. The region has reported more than 11,600 cases this year from 12 countries and territories, mainly Brazil. Though the outbreak is smaller than record dengue activity, PAHO officials said the geographic spread of Oropouche virus activity is increasing outside the Amazon basin, including to areas with no history of the disease, which has been linked to some congenital infections and poor pregnancy outcomes.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) this week issued a level 2 travel notice (yellow, practice enhanced precautions) for people visiting Brazil’s Espirito Santo state, located in the country’s southeast, due to an Oropouche virus outbreak. It urged pregnant women to reconsider nonessential travel to the area and advised all travelers to take steps to prevent bug bites, including for 3 weeks after returning to the United States, and to consider using condoms or not having sex during travel and for 6 weeks after travel.The CDC has a level 1 travel notice (blue, practice usual precautions) in place for Oropouche virus in the Americas, where low numbers of cases have been reported Bolivia, other parts of Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guyana, and Peru.
Malaria count rose in 2023; African region still sees most cases == The World Health Organization (WHO) today released its annual global malaria report, which documents 11 million more cases in 2023 compared to 2022, with similar death rates. While malaria remains a serious global health threat, the African region bears the brunt of the disease as the site of 95% of malaria-related deaths. Overall, an estimated 263 million cases and 597,000 malaria deaths occurred in 2023. This represents about 11 million more cases than in 2022 and nearly the same number of deaths. But gains are being made towards malaria control in many countries. As of November of this year, 44 countries and 1 territory have been certified malaria-free, the WHO said. In 83 countries where malaria is endemic, 25 report 10 or fewer cases per year. In 2000, only 4 countries reported 10 or fewer cases annually. Mortality rates from malaria have also dropped, especially in Africa. Since 2015, the African region has seen a 15% drop in mortality rates. However, the region’s current mortality rate of 52.4 deaths per 100,000 population is still more than double the target of 23 deaths per 100,000 population. Currently, 11 African nations report 70% of the world’s malaria cases (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania, and Uganda). Ministers of health from the countries pledged renewed support of malaria control efforts earlier this year. In many of those nations, strides are being made with deployment of new-generation nets, which account for 78% of the 195 million nets delivered to sub-Saharan Africa, up from 59% in 2022. And as of this month, 17 countries have introduced malaria vaccines through routine childhood immunization. "No one should die of malaria; yet the disease continues to disproportionately harm people living in the African region, especially young children and pregnant women," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, WHO director-general. "An expanded package of lifesaving tools now offers better protection against the disease, but stepped-up investments and action in high-burden African countries are needed to curb the threat."
China reports two more H9N2 avian flu cases - China has reported two more human H9N2 avian flu cases, which involve children in two different provinces, Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said today in its weekly avian flu update.Both patients are 1-year-old girls. The first, from Guizhou province in southern China, became ill on October 28. The other, from neighboring Guangxi province, became ill on November 18.The report did not note the patients' conditions or exposure to the virus.H9N2 is known to circulate in poultry in the region, where sporadic infections are reported, especially in children, who typically experience mild disease following exposure to poultry. The new cases raise China’s H9N2 total for the year to 15 cases.
Arizona confirms 2 avian flu infections as California probes second potential case in a child -The Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS) on December 6 reported the state's first human avian flu patients, both of whom were exposed to infected poultry at a commercial farm in Pinal County.If confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the cases would push the national total to 60 and the number of states reporting human cases to eight. In a statement, the ADHS said both patients had mild symptoms, received treatment, and have recovered. It added that two avian flu outbreaks have recently been reported in the state: one at a Pinal County layer farm that had more than 790,000 birds and the other in a backyard flock in Maricopa County that has 490 birds. Meanwhile, health officials in Marin County, California, in a December 6 public health update, first reported by the Los Angeles Times, said over the past week it has been investigating a possible avian flu case involving a child and is working with the California Department of Public Health and the CDC to confirm the findings and determine how the child may have been exposed. If confirmed, it would be California's second unexplained avian flu infection in a child. California’s first case, in Alameda County, which also marked the nation's first H5 case in a child, was detected through the state'’s flu surveillance system. It was first reported on November 19 and was confirmed by CDC testing a few days later.
Genetic analysis finds H5N1 in California child most similar to cattle genotype - Though virus RNA levels in the sample from a California childwhose H5N1 avian flu infection was reported in November weren’t enough for complete sequencing, complex analysis was able determine that is most closely resembles the B3.13 genotype found in cattle, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in a technical update. In other developments, the CDC said yesterday that follow-up testing didn’t confirm two recent cases from Arizona as H5 infections, though they are classified as probable cases, keeping the number of confirmed infections since the first of the year at 58 and lifting the number of probable cases to 6. California health officials had identified the case during flu surveillance, and initial subtyping was done at the Stanford Medicine Clinical Virology Laboratory. So far, epidemiological and environmental investigations haven’t been able to pin down how the child was exposed to the virus, and the CDC said that the sequencing challenges don’t bode well for identifying the source. Low levels of virus RNA in the child’s sample made it difficult to sequence the virus with traditional methods, and attempts to isolate the virus from the sample were unsuccessful. However, using other techniques, scientists were able to sequence the full-length neuraminidase (NA) and nucleoprotein (NP) genes, as well as partial hemagglutinin (HA), polymerase basic 2 (PB2), and polymerase basic 1 (PB1) genes.Phylogenetic analysis of the two full-length genes showed that the virus was most similar to the B3.13 genotype viruses detected in California’s cattle, poultry, and recent human cases. Also, sequencing analysis shows that the case isn’t closely related to the virus involved in the severe illness in a teen hospitalized in British Columbia.Additional analysis found that the virus from the child had no concerning mutations that might suggest greater infectivity, transmissibility, or resistance to neuraminidase inhibitor drugs such as oseltamivir. In other H5N1 developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed 22 more detections in dairy herds, including 21 from California and 1 recently announced by Nevada’s agriculture department, the state’s first. The new confirmations boost the number of affected herds to 742 from 16 states, 527 of them from California.APHIS also confirmed more outbreaks in poultry flocks from four states, including one at a massive layer farm in Iowa’s Sioux County that has more than 4.2 million birds. The new outbreaks also include two commercial turkey farms from two South Dakota counties, a commercial turkey hen breeding facility in Nebraska’s Nemaha County, and a backyard flock in Arkansas’ Lafayette County.
Louisiana reports its first probable human H5N1 case as California logs another --Today, the Louisiana Department of Health (LDH) announced the state's first presumptive human H5N1 highly pathogenic avian flu case. The patient, a resident of southwestern Louisiana who was exposed to sick and dead birds with suspected infection, has been hospitalized.Also today, the California Department of Public Health reported another probable human case of H5N1 in a dairy farm worker, raising the state's total to 34, all but 1 in people with occupational exposure. The sample tested positive at a local lab, but confirmatory testing at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was negative.Meanwhile, a CDC official told Stat that confirmatory tests on samples from a California child with suspected avian flu after drinking raw milk were negative.The first test run on a sample from the California child, who had fever and vomiting, was positive for influenza A. But tests run on samples at a local lab, the California Department of Public Health, and the CDC couldn't confirm the positive result, Stat reports.While the result doesn't definitively rule out H5N1 infection, the case won't be added to the national list of confirmed human cases.Lisa Santora, public health officer for Marin County, told Stat that the amount of virus in the original sample was low and noted that samples degrade with time. Locally, the child's situation will be classified as a suspected H5N1 case. The US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed 13 more H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle in California, four outbreaks in birds in three states, and five more detections in mammals, including a polar bear and a coyote. Yesterday, the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection reported an H5N1outbreak at a commercial poultry farm in Barron County, the first in the state since January. Barron County is located in the northwestern part of the state.The 13 additional H5N1 outbreaks in California cattle bring the national total to 845 in 16 states and California's total to 630. The bird outbreaks were reported yesterday in two backyard flocks in Arkansas's Craighead and Pope counties and commercial turkey farms in Sac County, Iowa, and Kingsbury County, South Dakota.The five additional H5N1 detections in mammals involve an Alaskan polar bear sampled a year ago (the second positive polar bear), a Montana mountain lion sampled in April, and, more recently, a domestic cat from California's Tulare County and a mouse and a coyote from Franklin County in Washington state.
Nevada reports its first avian flu detection in dairy cattle as virus hits Iowa layer farm The Nevada Department of Agriculture on December 6 reported the state's first avian flu detection in dairy cattle, which involved a herd in Nye County, located northwest of Las Vegas. Since H5N1 was first detected in US dairy cows in March, the virus has now infected herds in 16 states.Though Nye County borders California, the area isn't adjacent to the Central Valley epicenter of California's ongoing outbreaks in dairy cattle. According to the Nevada Dairy Farmers and Dairy Council of Nevada, a trade group, that state has just over 20 dairy farms, which range from 500 to more than 32,000 cows. Nationally, Nevada ranks 32nd in milk production. In poultry developments, the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship on December 6 reported its first outbreak since June, which involves a commercial layer farm in Sioux County in the northwestern corner of the state. Iowa is the nation's top egg-producing state, according to the Iowa Egg Council. Also, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed two more poultry outbreaks in separate states. One involves a commercial farm in California's Stanislaus County that has 44,000 birds and the other a backyard flock in Colorado's Pitkin County.
Bird flu found at Wilton poultry farm, California officials confirm — Workers in white Haz-Mat style suits and wearing face masks worked for the past three days at a Wilton poultry farm due to an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu, KCRA 3 has learned. The farm is owned by Perdue Foods out of Maryland according to Sacramento County tax records.The California Department of Food and Agriculture in an email said that workers had worked yesterday with the U.S. Department of Agriculture at the farm to mitigate the spread of the virus. Neighbors tell KCRA 3 that the workers from both had been in and out of the farm for several days.Footage shot by KCRA 3 shows signs saying that due to biosensitivity workers should walk through a clean water bath on the way in. CDFA said that the birds on the property were euthanized, "a practice that is carried out rapidly to humanely alleviate suffering and help prevent the spread of the virus locally, regionally and nationally." According to CDFA, this is the fourth incident of bird flu in the Sacramento County region this year.Sacramento County Public Health Officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye told KCRA 3 this week she was monitoring bird flu and to date, there have not been any human cases in the county."We do know that it is a concern because in California we have seen cow herds that have been infected. We have seen a lot of bird flocks that have been infected as well," she said
Thousands of wild birds are dying of bird flu in Boise area, Idaho Fish and Game says - Wild birds are dying by the thousands in the Treasure Valley because of avian flu outbreaks, according to a news release from the Idaho Department of Fish and Game. The agency said on Dec 11 that it received reports of large numbers of dead birds—many of them geese—at Fort Boise, Lake Lowell and in Parma recently. Fish and Game health program coordinator Stacey Dauwalter said in the news release that numbers are estimated to be in the thousands, and staff are cleaning up bird carcasses in some of the areas with the largest concentrations of deaths. Dauwalter said removing the infected carcasses is "the best option we have to reduce impacts of avian influenza." The U.S. has seen repeated outbreaks of bird flu in recent years, including in backyard poultry flocks in 2022 and dairies since the start of the year. Three Idaho dairies, including one in Boise, were under a state quarantine for bird flu outbreaks as recently as two weeks ago, according to prior Idaho Statesman reporting. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the prevalent strain, H5N1, was first identified in the 1990s and is considered "highly pathogenic," meaning it's very contagious and can cause severe illness. The strain has been documented in humans as well as dogs and cats, livestock and a variety of mammal species, including skunks in Idaho. Fish and Game migratory game bird coordinator Jeff Knetter said in the agency's news release that die-offs like the ones affecting the Treasure Valley are occurring all over the U.S., predominantly affecting "light geese"—species with light-colored heads like snow, blue and Ross's geese. Knetter said the mass deaths won't have lasting impacts on the birds' populations. "The number of birds impacted is a very small proportion of the overall population, which exceeds a million birds," he said in the news release. Fish and Game officials said bird flu is most common in ducks and geese and noted that Southwest Idaho has become a major stopover for many migratory waterfowl species in recent years. At times, the migratory species have been seen in the tens of thousands in the region. The agency said any live animals showing signs of disease—such as lethargy, gasping for air, coughing, sneezing and nasal discharge—should be left alone. Dead birds should be handled only while wearing disposable gloves and a mask and should be double-bagged and disposed of in the trash. Fish and Game urged the public to report any sightings of sick or dead animals using its online reporting form. Migratory bird hunting seasons opened for the Southwest Region in the fall and remain open as late as March for some species. Full season information and rules are available at the Fish and Game website. Fish and Game pointed hunters to an additional online resource from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The federal agency recommends dressing harvested birds in the field while wearing disposable gloves and using dedicated tools that are kept away from poultry and other birds. Hunters are also encouraged to double-bag feathers and offal and to use a dedicated pair of shoes while dressing or wear rubber shoes that can be cleaned and disinfected before being worn elsewhere. The USDA recommends washing hands with soap and water or an alcohol-based sanitizer immediately after handling any wild birds.
Bird Flu Suspected In LA County Cat Deaths — Two cats in Los Angeles County died in what health officials suspect may have been cases of H5 bird flu contracted from ingesting recalled raw milk, county health officials announced Thursday. According to the county Department of Public Health, the two cats drank milk from Raw Farm LLC. Soon after, the cats sickened, losing their appetites and developing fever and neurologic symptoms. They died and tested positive for Influenza A, which is rare for cats. Now, health officials are waiting for test results to confirm that the cats contracted H5 bird flu. There have been no known cases of humans contracting bird flu from infected cats. However, cats have been known to transfer other strains of flu to humans. "Although human cases of bird flu are rare and the risk to residents remains low, this detection of H5 bird flu in cats who consumed raw milk underscores the importance of being proactive about preventing ongoing transmission of the virus," the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health warnned Thursday. The people exposed to the sick cats have been offered antiviral prophylaxis.
5 Animals, Including Cheetah and Mountain Lion, Die from Avian Flu at Popular Arizona Zoo -- The Wildlife World Zoo in Litchfield, Ariz., had six animals test positive for avian flu, with five dying of the infection, the Maricopa County Public Health Department said on Wednesday, Dec. 11.A mountain lion, a cheetah, a kookaburra, a swamphen, and an Andean goose all died of the infection. A white tiger was also infected and is currently recovering after receiving treatment. "While we are deeply saddened to report the loss of a few cherished animals, we are grateful that the impact was limited thanks to our swift response, robust biosecurity protocols, and the invaluable support of Maricopa County Department of Public Health and state and federal agencies,” Kristy Hayden, president of Wildlife World Zoo, said in a press release.The zoo has begun implementing increased safety precautions, including disinfecting enclosures, restricting access to affected areas, and quarantining exposed animals. The zoo also temporarily suspended visitors' activities of directly contacting the animals. “Our team worked diligently to contain the situation, and we remain committed to the health and safety of our animals, staff, and visitors,” Hayden said.Hayden was aware of other cases of avian flu in Arizona and implemented precautions as soon as possible. Despite their efforts, the animals were infected, making this the first time any animals at the zoo contracted the avian flu. “We have over 6000 animals here, so it's something we had to take very seriously from the start,” Hayden told NBC 12 News. “We immediately started working with the Maricopa County Health Department, the CDC, just to assess if there was any risk with the general public,” she said.In addition to the animals, Hayden reported that 25 employees were exposed to the infected animals. Now, those employees are being monitored for symptoms. As of Dec. 12, no employees have tested positive, Dr. Nick Staab, the assistant medical director for the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, said, per NBC 12 News.This is Maricopa County's second outbreak, with the first affecting a commercial poultry backyard flock, per the press release. No people in Maricopa County have been infected. However, two people in Pinal County, east of Maricopa County, tested positive and recovered."Those individuals who are getting sick do have that close contact with these animals, whether it's dairy cattle, or sick birds,” Dr. Staab told NBC 12 News. ”The general risk to the population remains low.”
Avian flu suspected in cats that drank raw milk as virus kills animals at Arizona zoo The Los Angeles County Department of Health today announced that it is investigating two suspected avian flu illnesses in indoor pet cats that drank recalled raw milk, fueling more concerns about wider spread in other animals, which includes zoo animals infected in Arizona's Maricopa County. Also today, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed several more outbreaks in dairy cattle in California and in poultry flocks in three states. And two states reported rises in wild-bird detections.In a statement, Los Angeles County health officials said the two cats developed symptoms after consuming milk from Raw Farms. Their symptoms included appetite loss, fever, and neurologic signs. Both died after their symptoms worsened.Testing revealed influenza A, which is rare in cats. Officials said the cases are considered suspected H5 avian flu cases and that confirmation tests will be done. Officials noted that, in earlier US dairy farm outbreaks, cats were known to be infected after drinking raw milk from infected cows.People exposed to the sick cats are under monitoring and have been offered antiviral prophylaxis (prevention).When raw milk from Raw Farms was recalled following positive tests from product on retail shelves, officials urged people to avoid drinking raw milk or giving it to their pets.Barbara Ferrer, PhD, MPH, MEd, LA County public health director, said, the cases are a reminder that the virus can cause severe disease in cats. "To avoid the spread of disease, including H5 bird flu, we strongly encourage residents and their pets to avoid raw dairy and undercooked meat products, limit contact with sick or dead animals, report sick or dead birds and keep pets or poultry away from wild animals and birds."Maricopa County yesterday announced that it is working with state and federal partners to respond to an avian flu outbreak affecting a small number of animals at the Wildlife World Zoo near Phoenix. Tests at the Arizona Department of Agriculture showed that samples were likely positive for H5N1. Public health officials are working to identify staff and volunteers who likely had prolonged exposure to the animals. The people will be monitored and offered antiviral prophylaxis.The zoo has isolated infected or potentially infected animals and stepped up its biosafety protocols.Media reports said animal deaths include a cheetah, a mountain lion, swamp hen, an Indian goose, and a kookaburra. An infected white tiger appears to be improving after treatment.Kristy Hayden, president of the zoo, said, "While we are deeply saddened to report the loss of a few cherished animals, we are grateful that the impact was limited thanks to our swift response, robust biosecurity protocols, and the invaluable support of Maricopa County Department of Public Health and state and federal agencies."Arizona recently reported two avian flu outbreaks in poultry, one at a commercial farm in Pinal County and the other in a backyard flock in Maricopa County.In other animal developments, the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed 58 more detections dairy cattle, all in California, raising the state's total to 617 and the national total to 832 across 16 states. The outbreaks in California, the nation's top-producing dairy state, have now affected nearly half of the state's roughly 1,300 dairy farms.Also, APHIS confirmed more outbreaks in poultry in three states, including at two commercial farms in Iowa, one a turkey producer in Palo Alto County that has 50,000 birds, and the other a layer farm in Sioux County that has 1.6 million birds.The group also confirmed the virus at commercial farm in Oklahoma's Adair County that has 40,000 birds and at a turkey facility in South Dakota's Brule County. Meanwhile, two states—Louisiana and Missouri—warned about rising numbers of avian flu in wild birds.
Could Cats Become a Vector for Bird Flu? - The New York Times - Domestic cats could provide an unexpected new route for the bird flu virus H5N1 to evolve into a more dangerous form, according to a new study published on Monday.In the year since the virus began circulating in dairy cattle, it has killed many cats, primarily on farms with affected herds. It has also sickened at least 60 people, most of whom had close contact with infected dairy cows or poultry.So far, H5N1 does not spread easily among people, although studies have suggested that just one or two key mutations could allow the virus to make that leap.There is no evidence that cats have spread H5N1 to people and they may not represent a major avenue for the evolution of bird flu, experts said. Still, if a cat were simultaneously infected with H5N1 and a seasonal flu virus, the H5N1 virus could potentially acquire the mutations it needed to spread efficiently among people.The new study highlights the need for public health officials to ramp up bird flu surveillance in cats, which tend to have frequent contact with both wild animals and people, said Dr. Suresh Kuchipudi, a veterinary microbiologist at the University of Pittsburgh and an author of the paper. For months, the testing of cows and people for H5N1 has been limited, leaving experts in the dark about the true scale of the dairy outbreak. Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that it would begin testing the national milk supply to help identify infected herds.But officials have not addressed the need to expand monitoring of other farm animals, let alone household pets. The U.S.D.A. is charged with monitoring livestock and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention takes the lead on disease surveillance in people, but no government agency is responsible for tracking companion animals. “In the process of addressing the immediate problem — which is dairy farms and the milk as a food safety problem, and then human surveillance — we might be missing a much bigger, evolving story,” Dr. Kuchipudi said. “It may already have been happening in plain sight.”He and his colleagues investigated the death of 10 cats at a home in South Dakota this spring. The cats lived outdoors but were considered pets. They displayed respiratory and neurological symptoms before they died.Virus isolated from the cats closely resembled a version seen in cattle on a dairy farm 50 miles away. The dead cats were discovered with bird feathers nearby, suggesting that they became infected by eating wild birds that had carried the virus off the farm.Bird flu viruses naturally latch on to a type of receptor found in birds, and seasonal flu viruses are more suited to a human-type receptor. Scientists typically worry most about pigs — which carry both types of receptors — as the ideal “mixing vessels” in which two flu viruses might swap genes.But many other animals may host bird flu and seasonal flu viruses at the same time, said Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, who was not involved in the work.Those species may vary in how likely they are to encounter both viruses and to pass pathogens on to people. “Cats seem to be a pretty good candidate,” Dr. Webby said.The new study found that cats carry both types of receptors in their brain, lungs and gastrointestinal system, meaning they can host both viruses. As the flu season picks up over the coming weeks, so do the odds of cats becoming simultaneously infected with H5N1 and a seasonal flu virus.“The fact they don’t roam around in packs of dozens of animals might reduce likelihood of onward transmission,” Dr. Webby said. “But the risk does seem to be there.”The current version of H5N1 has shown itself to be surprisingly promiscuous, infecting 90 species of birds and more than 20 mammalian species.“This virus is doing all sorts of wonky things that we haven’t really thought of flu viruses doing,” said Tom Peacock, a virologist at the Pirbright Institute in Britain who was not involved in the work.“It’s just giving itself a lot of unusual opportunities” to pick up advantageous mutations, Dr. Peacock said.
CWD detected near Wheaton, Minnesota, the first case in a wild deer in that area | CIDRAP == A deer near Wheaton, Minnesota, in the western part of the state, has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), the first detection in a wild deer in that area, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) reported yesterday. The buck was harvested by a hunter during the opening weekend of firearms season, the second weekend in November, in Deer Permit Area (DPA) 271, along Minnesota's border with South Dakota. "This discovery in western Minnesota, while unwelcome news, highlights the importance and necessity of our disease surveillance efforts and allowing hunters to test deer harvested anywhere in the state if they would like to," Erik Hildebrand, DNR wildlife health supervisor, said in a news release. The detection triggered implementation of the DNR's CWD response plan, which consists of 3 years of testing to estimate CWD prevalence in DPA 271 and the surrounding permit areas. The DNR will work with the South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks and the North Dakota Game and Fish Department to coordinate CWD surveillance and management in the area. "Within DPAs where CWD has been detected and confirmed, the Minnesota DNR uses multiple management actions designed to help mitigate disease spread, including carcass movement restrictions, a deer feeding and attractants ban and, sometimes, increased hunting opportunities with increased bag limits," the DNR said. The DNR will conduct disease surveillance in fall 2025 before deciding whether to cull more deer with a special hunt. "The adult male deer in DPA 271 that tested positive for CWD was harvested during the breeding season when deer are known to travel longer distances," the release said. Caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease that affects cervids such as deer and elk. CWD can spread among animals and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but authorities advise against eating meat from sick animals and recommend using precautions when handling carcasses.
New Zealand scientists suspect specimen of world's rarest whale died from head injuries - Scientists suspect the first complete specimen ever recorded of the world's rarest whale died from head injuries, an expert said Friday. The first dissection of a spade-toothed whale, a type of beaked whale, was completed last week after a painstaking examination at a research center near the New Zealand city of Dunedin, the local people who led the scientific team, Te Rūnanga Ōtākou, said in a statement issued by the New Zealand Department of Conservation. A near-perfectly preserved 5-meter (16-foot) male was found washed up on a South Island beach in July. It was the first complete specimen ever recorded. There have only been seven known sightings and never of a living spade-toothed whale. New Zealand conservation agency beaked whale expert Anton van Helden said the whale's broken jaw and bruising to the head and neck led scientists to believe that head trauma may have caused its death. "We don't know, but we suspect there must have been some sort of trauma, but what caused that could be anyone's guess," van Helden said in a statement. All varieties of beaked whales have different stomach systems and researchers didn't know how the spade-toothed type processed its food. The scientific team found the specimen had nine stomach chambers containing remnants of squid and parasitic worms, the statement said. Among the more interesting finds were tiny vestigial teeth in the upper jaw. "These little teeth embedded in the gum tells us something about their evolutionary history. It's remarkable to see this and it's just another thing that we had no idea about," van Helden said. "It's a week I'll never forget in my life, it's certainly a highlight and it's the start of the storytelling around this beautiful animal," van Helden added. The dissection was also notable because scientists and curators worked together with local Māori people to incorporate Indigenous knowledge and customs into each step of the process. Following the dissection, the local iwi, or tribe, will keep the jawbone and teeth of the whale before its skeleton is displayed in a museum. 3D printing will be used to replicate those parts retained by the iwi. To Māori, whales are a taonga -– a precious treasure -– and the creature has been treated with the reverence afforded to an ancestor.
Biden administration bans cancer-causing substance TCE used in dry cleaning - The Biden administration is banning a cancer-causing substance used in dry cleaning and is also banning most uses of another, similar chemical.The administration’s ban is on a chemical known as TCE, which is also used in consumer and commercial products used in furniture care and brake cleaners. TCE causes liver, kidney and blood cancer, as well as damage to the central nervous system, liver, kidneys, immune system and reproductive organs. It can also cause fetal heart defects. The administration is additionally banning all consumer and most industrial uses of another substance known as PCE, which is also used in dry cleaning. Under the administration’s PCE rule the substance will be phased out of dry cleaning in 10 years.PCE causes liver, kidney, brain and testicular cancer and can also damage the kidneys, liver, immune system, brain and reproductive system. Both chemicals are also notorious for contaminating drinking water at the Camp Lejeune Marine Corps Base in North Carolina. “It’s simply unacceptable to continue to allow cancer-causing chemicals to be used for things like glue, dry cleaning or stain removers when safer alternatives exist,” Michal Freedhoff, assistant administrator for the Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention, said in a written statement. Most uses of TCE will be banned within one year, though some will be allowed to continue for longer. In battery manufacturing the substance will be allowed for another 20 years, while in “essential laboratory activities” and some research and development it will be allowed to be used for another 50 years.
Mark Ruffalo urges Biden to regulate 'forever chemicals' as Trump return looms - Actor and activist Mark Ruffalo is urging the Biden administration to take decisive regulatory action on “forever chemicals,” as the return of President-elect Trump to the White House looms near. “The EPA has worked their butts off, against all odds, to get a drinking water standard on this particular chemical class,” Ruffalo said at a Monday webinar, hosted by the Environmental Working Group. “Now the Biden administration just has to close the loop and hold the people responsible who have killed people,” he added. Ruffalo was referring to the producers of the thousands of types of synthetic compounds known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS. Notorious for their ability to persist in the human body and in the environment, these chemicals are found in certain types of firefighting foam, industrial discharge and a long list of household items. They have been linked to many serious illnesses, including thyroid disease, testicular cancer and kidney cancer. “We’ve been to the White House with families who’ve lost children from these diseases, and they continue to compile in our bodies,” Ruffalo said. “The problem now is they still are protecting these companies from accountability,” he added, referring to the federal government. The Biden administration has already taken several decisive steps in the long-term mission to regulate and clean up the decades of PFAS pollution caused by companies and military institutions across America. In April, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated two types of PFAS as hazardous substances under the country’s legacy “Superfund” law — making it easier to force polluters to pay for their actions. That decision occurred just days after the EPA issued a separate rule setting limits for several PFAS in drinking water. And just last week, the agency published a new regulation preventing PFAS from being approved through “Low Volume Exemptions” — abbreviated reviews granted to chemicals that will be created in small quantities.But Ruffalo and his fellow activists are pressing the Biden administration to take further decisive action aimed at strengthening PFAS-related oversight before Trump takes office.In particular, they referred to a potential proposed rule about PFAS-containing wastewater discharges — which have been under consideration in the White House’s Office of Management and Budget for review since June.Those possible plans have been in the works since 2021, when the EPA first announced that it would propose a rule setting limits on these releases.
EPA awards $1.6 billion in environmental justice grants - EPA is on pace to distribute much of its vast funds to aid marginalized neighborhoods burdened by pollution before President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.The agency announced Thursday that it selected 105 applications for its Community Change Grants, valued at almost $1.6 billion in total. The grants, financed by the landmark climate law, are designed to curb pollution, build resilience to extreme weather and train the workforce in disadvantaged areas.EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement that President Joe Biden promised to target spending for communities long shut out from federal funding. “Today, thanks to President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, EPA is delivering on that promise. These selections will create jobs, improve public health, and uplift community efforts in all corners of this country, regardless of geography or background,” Regan said.
Feds agree to revisit lead ammo ban at wildlife refuge - Under the gun from litigation, the Fish and Wildlife Service agreed Thursday to revisit whether lead ammunition might be phased out at a wildlife refuge in West Virginia.The agreement was praised by the conservation groups that challenged the agency’s earlier decision to retreat from plans for a lead ammo phaseout at the Canaan Valley National Wildlife Refuge. The new settlement calls for further review and a follow-up decision by 2026.“This settlement makes clear that the Service’s decisions about the use of toxic lead ammunition must be based on science and the wildlife protective mission of the National Wildlife Refuge System,” said Aaron Bloom, a senior attorney with Earthjustice’s biodiversity defense program, in a statement.Bloom added that “the harms of lead ammunition to people and wildlife are well-documented” and he predicted that “it should be a straightforward decision” for the Fish and Wildlife Service to once again proceed with a lead ammo phaseout at the refuge.
Human disruption is driving 'winner' and 'loser' tree species shifts across Brazilian forests, study shows -Fast-growing and small-seeded tree species are dominating Brazilian forests in regions with high levels of deforestation and degradation, a study shows. This has potential implications for the ecosystem services these forests provide, including the ability of these "disturbed" forests to absorb and store carbon. This is because these "winning" species grow fast but die young, as their stems and branches are far less dense than the slow growing tree species they replace. Wildlife species adapted to consuming and dispersing the large seeds of tree species that are being lost in human-modified landscapes may also be affected by these shifts. Authors of the study, "Winner-loser plant trait replacements in human-modified tropical forests" published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, say their findings highlight the urgent need to conserve and restore tropical forests, prevent degradation, and implement measures to protect and boost populations of the large-bodied birds like toucans and mammals such asspider monkeys that disperse the seeds of "losing" slow-growing large-seeded tree species. An international team of researchers examined a unique dataset of more than 1,200 tropical tree species over more than 270 forest plots across six regions of Brazilian Amazon and Atlantic forests that have been altered by people through activities such as deforestation and local disturbances like logging, hunting and burning.The researchers looked at the overall structure of the landscapes surrounding each forest plot and, using multiple statistical models, they were able to identify the causal effects of habitat loss, fragmentation and local degradation on the composition of forests, as well as identifying the attributes of so-called "winners" and "losers" species."We found that the tree species dominating landscapes with high forest cover tend to have dense wood and large seeds, which are primarily dispersed by medium to large-bodied animals typical of Brazil's rainforests," said Bruno X. Pinho, first author of the study who conducted most of the research while at the University of Montpellier (now at the University of Bern)."In contrast, in highly deforested landscapes, where remaining forests face additional human disturbances, these tree species are losing out to so-called 'opportunistic' species, which have softer wood and smaller seeds consumed by small, mobile, disturbance-adapted birds and bats. These species typically grow faster and have greater dispersal capacity." The researchers found this was happening despite differing geography, climate and land-use contexts.This study highlights the urgent need to strengthen the conservation and restoration of tropical forests to preserve these vital ecosystems. Tropical forests constitute the most important reservoir of terrestrial biodiversity. They play a major role in absorbing greenhouse gases and provide essential ecosystem services. Yet they are victims of rapid deforestation and fragmentation, with the loss of 3 to 6 million hectares per year over the last two decades.
Biodiversity at risk in most rainforests, research warns - New research has revealed less than a quarter of the remaining tropical rainforests around the globe can safeguard thousands of threatened species from extinction.The research, co-authored by The University of Queensland's Professor James Watson, evaluated the global availability of structurally intact, minimally disturbed tropical rainforests for more than 16,000 species of mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. The research is published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."Using remote sensing and forest integrity indicators, we analyzed the quality of the rainforests across the ranges of the forest-dependent vertebrates," Professor Watson said."Overall, up to 90% of forest cover still remains within these species' ranges but only 25% of it is of high quality, which is a critical factor in reducing extinction risk."We knew high-integrity rainforests were vital for biodiversity, but no one had quantified just how limited these key habitats have become."Our research shows that structurally intact rainforests—which are essential for many forest-dependent species—are alarmingly rare, particularly in regions most affected by human pressures such as logging and infrastructure development."The study also revealed contrasts in habitat quality based on the conservation status of different species."Only 8% of the rainforest habitat for species classified as threatened or with declining populations is of high integrity," Professor Watson said."In comparison, non-threatened species have ranges with about 25% of high-integrity rainforest habitat, highlighting how habitat degradation disproportionately impacts species already at risk.""To protect the remaining high-integrity tropical rainforests, global coordination to minimize human disturbance is key, especially in unprotected forests that remain vital for biodiversity."
Ravaged jungle: Just 25% of the world's surviving tropical rainforests are in good condition --We are now in the middle of the sixth mass extinction, caused by our emergence as a planet-shaping force. Species are going extinct far fasterthan the average natural rate of loss. In response, conservationists are working to safeguard biodiversity strongholds such as tropical rainforests, famed for their remarkable richness of species. Many of these rainforests are household names, from the Amazon to the Congo to Australia's Daintree and Wet Tropics. But these rainforests are being steadily cut down or degraded. How much rainforest is still in good condition and able to sustain the Daintree's cassowaries and tree kangaroos, the Amazon's sloths and anacondas and the Congo Basin's forest elephants, bonobos and okapi? We looked at over 16,000 species of mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians in our new research to answer this question. At first glance, it seemed like good news—up to 90% of the geographic ranges of these species were still covered in forest. But when we drilled down further, we found the real problem. Barely 25% of the world's remaining tropical rainforests are still of high quality. For threatened species and those in decline, there's just 8% of their habitat left in good condition. To protect rainforests, conservationists have long focused on a key goal: reduce deforestation. The theory is that by slowing or stopping the rate at which trees are felled, rainforest habitat can be preserved. But Maintaining forest cover without considering its quality means ignoring major human sources of damage, such as logging, roadbuilding and mining, which make rainforests increasingly degraded. Degraded rainforests aren't lifeless. They're often full of life. But the species you find are usually those that thrive in disturbed, open areas such as the edges of forest, roadsides and agricultural lands. Such species take advantage of human-made disturbance to expand. This comes at the expense of many other forest dependent species, who often decline or disappear.To be able to distinguish high quality from degraded rainforests, our team used high-resolution imagery of global rainforests from three NASA satellites to calculate the height of trees, canopy cover and how long the rainforest had stood without pressure from human industries, and overlaid our results with a map of major industrial human pressures such as expansion of cities, creation of farmland and building roads.Bringing these data sources together lets us rank the condition of rainforests, which we dub the Forest Structural Integrity Index, first developed in 2020.High quality rainforests have a multi-layered structure—a lower understorey of shrubs and small trees, a midstorey of medium trees, a canopy of the taller trees and an emergent layer where unusually tall trees poke through the sea of green.In forests degraded by logging, very tall, tall and medium trees are logged or severely damaged, while the understorey is overtaken by dense brush. We know high quality rainforests are linked to a lower risk of extinction for vertebrates.
About 9,000 species have already gone extinct in Australia and we'll likely lose another this week—new study -- More than 95% of Australian animals are invertebrates (animals without backbones—spiders, snails, insects, crabs, worms and others). There are at least 300,000 species of invertebrate in Australia. Of these, two-thirds are unknown to western science.This means there are huge gaps in our knowledge of Australia's invertebrates. Our new study, published today in the journal Cambridge Prisms: Extinction, indicates there has been a catastrophic under-recording of Australia's species extinctions.Our best estimate is that 9,111invertebrate species have become extinct in Australia since 1788. This dwarfs the current official estimate of the total number of extinctions across all plant and animal species in Australia: 100.The extinction of so many invertebrate species is not an arcane concern for those few people who care about bugs. Invertebrates are the building blocks of almost all ecological systems.Loss of invertebrates will destabilize those systems. It will negatively impact the resources we depend upon, like pollination, cycling of nutrients into the soil, clean air and waterways.To date, assessments of historic and ongoing biodiversity loss in Australia have been heavily skewed towards vertebrates, especially mammals and birds. This bias has also driven the efforts to prevent the loss of such species.These conservation efforts are important. But in having such a focus, we have neglected the invertebrates. We haven't adequately recognized which invertebrates are at the highest risk of extinction, or which have already been lost. The most widely used estimate for the total number of extinctions of all Australian plants and animals since 1788 is "just" 100 species. Of these, only ten are invertebrates. And only one invertebrate species, the Lake Pedder earthworm, is officially listed as extinct by the Australian government. In our study, we used a range of approaches to estimate a more realistic figure for the number of invertebrate extinctions, and to predict how many will become extinct in 2024. We took the proportional extinction rates of Australian vertebrates and plants and extrapolated this to the number of Australian invertebrates. Separately, we also extrapolated the proportion of extinctions recognized among all of the world's invertebrates to the number of Australian ones. To estimate the current extinction rate—the number of invertebrates that are going extinct as you read this article—we had to make assumptions. One option was that our estimated number of extinctions from 1788 to 2024 fell equally across the years. However, it's more likely the annual rate of extinctions of Australian invertebrates has increased over time. This is due to increasing habitat loss and other threats as Australia's human population has grown. This vast number of extinctions is not simply a historical blemish. Importantly, we estimate that the current rate of extinctions of Australian invertebrates is between one and three species every week. Most of the Australian invertebrate species that have gone extinct will not yet have been formally described. Many may never be so. We have coined the term "ghost extinctions" for those species that have been lost without a trace—with no evidence they ever existed.
Biden proposes protections for monarch butterfly - The Biden administration is proposing protections for the monarch butterfly – though the protections face an uncertain future in the incoming Trump administration. The Fish and Wildlife Service proposed to list the orange and black butterfly as threatened, citing steep drops in the insect’s populations. It said that eastern migratory monarchs have declined by about 80 percent while western monarchs have declined by more than 95 percent – giving the western group a 99 percent chance of going extinct by 2080. Habitat loss, pesticides and climate change are contributing to the issue. “The iconic monarch butterfly is cherished across North America, captivating children and adults throughout its fascinating lifecycle,” said U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Director Martha Williams in a statement. “Working together, we can help make this extraordinary species a legacy for our children and generations to come.” In 2020, the Trump administration declined to provide the monarch with protections. It determined at that time that protections were “warranted” but that it was unable to protect the butterfly because it needed to devote its resources to higher-priority species. At the time, it granted the monarch “warranted-but-precluded” status — meaning that every year it will consider adding the butterfly to the list. Environmental advocates were pleased with the proposed protections, and indicated they would fight to finalize them under President-elect Trump. “We’ve spent 10 years to get to this landmark decision today, and won’t be stopping until the job is done. Science and the law is on the side of the monarchs,”
Bipartisan lawmakers urge House to take up Great Lakes bill - A bipartisan duo is pushing the House to pass a Great Lakes conservation bill that has already cleared the Senate. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) and Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Minn.) wrote House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee leadership last week in support of H.R. 7527, the “Great Lakes Restoration Initiative Act.”The bill would reauthorize the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), a program that spans the lakes and is set to expire in fiscal 2026. The proposal would extend funding through fiscal 2031 and would expand funding from $475 million to $500 million.The GLRI spans multiple agencies and focuses on eliminating invasive species and algal blooms to keep the Great Lakes’ water safe for drinking and recreational use and preserve natural habitats.
UN climate report suggests world has become permanently drier - More than 75 percent of the globe became permanently drier over the past three decades, according to a report from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The report, published Monday, found that about 77.6 percent of the globe became drier from 1990 to 2020, more than it did over the preceding three decades. During this period, the parts of the Earth classified as drylands expanded by about 1.66 million square miles, an area bigger than India. Such lands now comprise more than 40 percent of the globe, according to the UNCCD. Nearly 8 percent of the planet crossed the line from nondryland to dryland classification in recent decades, many of which were once humid, and a further 3 percent of similar areas could cross that threshold by the end of the 21st century without a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the group warned in its report. The UNCCD attributes much of the increasing aridity on human-caused climate change, which affects both temperature and rainfall. Although the permanent dryness described in the report is distinct from drought conditions, the Western U.S. has similarly seen warmer temperatures increase the risk of devastating fires due to reduced snowpack in recent years. If drylands further expand, a number of regions are likely to be affected, the UNCCD found — areas that would see their drylands widen in a high-emissions scenario include the Midwestern U.S., central Mexico, broad swaths of southern Africa and all of the Mediterranean. “Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw said in a statement. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost.” “The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth,” Thiaw added.
Northeast experiences double threat of snowmelt and rainfall, heightening flood risks, U.S. - Temperatures across the Northeast are expected to reach 4 – 10 °C (40 – 50 °F), melting significant snow accumulations from last week’s lake-effect snowstorm. Rainfall totals are forecasted to reach 75 – 125 mm (3 – 5 inches) in some areas, including the I-95 corridor. The Northeast is at risk of severe flooding this week heavy rainfall combines with warming temperatures to accelerate snowmelt. Temperatures are expected to rise by 6 – 8 °C (10 – 15 °F) above average on Monday, December 9. In Chicago, highs are forecast to reach around 10 °C (50 °F), while the New York Metro area will see temperatures near 13 °C (55 °F). Across the Northeast, temperatures will climb to 4 – 10 °C (40 – 50 °F), though northern New England is likely to remain cooler. The season’s first major lake-effect snowstorm, which left some areas with snow accumulations of up to 30 cm (1 foot), increases the likelihood of localized flooding as the snow melts, while heavy rains expected this week could worsen the situation. gfs 2m temperature anomaly 06z december 10 2024 model Image credit: Tropical Tidbits gfs total accumulated precipitation dec 9 - dec 11 2024 model Image credit: Tropical Tidbits Rainfall in some areas, including the I-95 corridor from New York City through Providence, Rhode Island, and Boston, is forecast to reach several inches. Rain is set to begin on Monday, with heavier downpours later in the week. Contributing to the flood risk is a low-pressure system moving along the U.S.-Canada border in the Midwest, which will merge with a moisture plume drawn from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture was pulled northward as a high-pressure system shifted off Florida after delivering arctic chills to much of the South and East. Rainfall on Monday morning will primarily affect areas west of the I-95 corridor, with heavier rainfall expected later in the afternoon and evening. A second wave of rain is forecast to develop midweek, bringing heavy precipitation to the Northeast. On Wednesday, December 11, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 flood risk for parts of Connecticut and Maine.
State of emergency declared, treacherous travel reported as lake-effect snowstorm blasts Great Lakes – The third significant lake-effect snowstorm since the end of November blasted the Great Lakes with strong winds and heavy snow that has led to treacheroustravel conditions and a state of emergency in parts of New York state.New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced on X that she had declared a state of emergency in several counties, including Jefferson and Erie counties, due to the expected feet of additional snowfall expected through the rest of the week.In addition, a tandem and empty tractor-trailer ban has been implemented in both directions on the New York State Thruway (Interstate 90) from Exit 53 west to thePennsylvania state line, as well as for portions of Route 5, U.S. 219, N.Y. Route 400 and Interstate 86.Lake-effect snow accumulated in north Michigan Wednesday evening as the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning. Footage from Aubrey Zackal shows heavy snowfall in Houghton."Our first responders and emergency crews are on the ground ready to deal with this storm," Hochul said in a post on X. "I urge New Yorkers to take precautions to stay safe." The snow fell fast and furious across portions of Pennsylvania and New York, with several communities already picking up more than 2 feet of snow.In Hamburg, New York, FOX Weather's Robert Ray experiences whiteout conditions and strong winds as lake-effect snow from Lake Erie blasts through the Great Lakes. Visibility is down to about a 10th of a mile in conditions like these. Both Eden and Orchard Park have picked up 30 inches of snow or more, with Hamburg getting close at 28.6 inches. Orchard Park has also issued a local state of emergency and implemented a driving ban."Town Highway and Village (Department of Public Works) crews have been working throughout the night to remove snow from roadways," police said in a Facebook post. "Our 911 center and police personnel are handling an increasing number of calls for service. Please adhere to the driving ban as we all work collectively to keep our community safe."Video captured at Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport on Thursday morning showed planes waiting to be de-iced during heavy snowfallThere were also reports of rare thundersnow in the Watertown, New York, area, early Thursday morning. Thundersnow is when thunder and lightning are observed while precipitation falls in the frozen variety. Similar to thunderstorms, thundersnow requires a significant amount of atmospheric instability, and in areas where the phenomenon occurs, snowfall rates can be exceptionally heavy.A powerful lake-effect snowstorm is currently pummeling western New York, bringing massive waves to Lake Erie and blanketing the region in heavy snow. The iconic Hoak's Restaurant in Hamburg, New York, is once again bearing the brunt of the storm, with waves crashing against its walls. Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said he was advised that local states of emergency have also been declared in towns across western New York, including Brant and Evans. Travel bans have been implemented due to poor visibility. Poloncarz said an Erie County Department of Public Works plow truck drove off the road on Route 20 in the Evans and Hamburg areas. That driver was not injured.Treacherous travel conditions are seen in Hamburg, New York, where at least 2 feet of snow is on the ground. A Lake-Effect Snow Warning is in effect until 1 p.m. Saturday.Buffalo Mayor Chris Scanlon said he has been in constant contact with both Hochul and Poloncarz regarding the high-impact lake-effect snowstorm, and said Buffalo City Hall would be closed Thursday due to the winter weather conditions.Exclusive FOX Weather Storm Tracker Corey Gerken was in Hamburg on Thursday morning and said it’s the heaviest snowfall he’s seen in the area in quite a while."Everyone is getting stuck on the roads," he said. "It’s a complete nightmare out here." FOX Weather Storm Tracker Corey Gerken was in Hamburg, New York, on Thursday, where travel has become a "complete nightmare" as heavy snow pounds the region. While speaking with FOX Weather on Thursday, Gerken said these are the worst conditions he's seen in the area.Traveling in these conditions is bad enough, but the intensity that the snow has been falling has been making it even more treacherous. "It’s snowing so heavy out here that you actually can’t, like, tell where the road is at," he said. "Usually, every time I’ve covered snow over here, they’ve done a pretty good job at keeping up with the roads. So, this is actually the first I’ve ever seen them this bad here in Hamburg. Heavy snow is continuing to blast the Erie, Pennsylvania, area as a lake-effect snowstorm continues to pound communities downwind of the Great Lakes. FOX Weather Correspondent Brandy Campbell was in Erie on Thursday morning where the snow has been piling up and the wind has been blowing leading to dangerous travel conditions.Impacts to travel have also been reported across portions of Pennsylvania, including some commercial travel bans on I-86 between I-90 and the New York state line, as well as the entire length of I-90 from the Ohio state line to the New York state line.Speed restrictions are also in effect for portions of interstates 80 and 81.FOX Weather Correspondent Brandy Campbell has been in Erie and shared a timelapse video showing bands of lake-effect snow impacting the region. A timelapse video recorded in Erie, Pennsylvania, shows bands of lake-effect snow impacting the region on Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said his state, too, had been preparing for impacts from the storm. In a post on X, Shapiro said members of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, Pennsylvania State Police and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency were on the ground in Erie before the winter weather arrived."They’ll be ready to help clear the roads and ensure folks get where they need to go," he said. "Stay safe out there." The FOX Forecast Center expects 10-20 inches of snow to fall around Lake Erie by the end of the workweek.The National Weather Service office in Buffalo said heavy lake-effect snow would bring multiple feet of snow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Friday morning, and strong winds could lead to near-whiteout conditions.That, forecasters warned, would bring "major impacts to travel and society where the heaviest snow is expected."
Parts of New York under State of Emergency as third lake-effect snowstorm brings heavy snowfall - New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a State of Emergency for parts of Western New York, the Finger Lakes, Central New York, and the North Country regions, as heavy lake-effect snow is expected to bring up to 90 cm (3 feet) of accumulation in the third lake-effect snowstorm of the season. The order takes effect on Thursday, December 12 for Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Franklin, Genesee, Hamilton, Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego, St. Lawrence, Wyoming and contiguous counties. The New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) has issued a tandem and empty tractor-trailer ban for NY Route 5 from NY 179 to I-190, US 219 from I-90 to I-86, NY Route 400 from I-90 to NY 16, and I-86 from US 219 to the Pennsylvania state line. “Our first responders and emergency crews are on the ground, ready to deal with this storm. I urge New Yorkers to take precautions to stay safe. Monitor your local forecasts, avoid unnecessary travel, and sign up for emergency alerts,” said Governor Hochul. Peak snowfall rates of 5 – 8 cm (2 – 3 inches) per hour are expected during the storm, with strong winds and gusts of 50 – 70 km/h (30 – 45 mph), possibly resulting in whiteout conditions. Strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and coastal flooding may cause hazardous travel conditions and power outages downstate. Heavy lake-effect snow is expected to develop over the region through Thursday night into Friday morning, with significant blowing and drifting snow in lake-effect areas. The heaviest lake-effect snow is forecasted east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow band off Lake Erie is expected to weaken on Thursday night, while snow will intensify across eastern Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates of 5 – 78 cm (2 – 3 inches) per hour are possible within the snow band off Lake Ontario, while rates of 2.5 – 5 cm (1 – 2 inches) per hour are expected off Lake Erie. Visibility will be significantly reduced within these snow bands, creating hazardous travel conditions. NYSDOT warned of rain and icy roads through Thursday crews in New York are working to address these conditions. The snowstorm is caused by an influx of arctic air driven by a deep low-pressure system moving into eastern Canada. As an associated cold front exits New England, an arctic high-pressure system will dominate the northern Plains and expand across the eastern U.S. over the next two days. Heavy rain in Maine will clear early today, followed by significantly colder temperatures and strong westerly winds. Meanwhile, on the West Coast, a Pacific cyclone is bringing heavy precipitation to northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Coastal and lower elevations will experience rain, while higher elevations, including the Sierra Nevada, are forecast to receive moderate to heavy snow. This precipitation will ease temporarily tonight before another Pacific system arrives Friday, bringing further heavy rainfall to northern California and southwestern Oregon into Saturday, with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. The arctic high-pressure system will bring sub-zero temperatures to parts of the eastern U.S. by Saturday morning. As it shifts eastward, southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture into the southern Plains, where thunderstorms and heavy rain could develop by Friday night.\
Heavy rains in West Java flood 172 villages, leave 10 dead in Sukabumi, Indonesia - At least 10 people are dead, two are missing, and more than 1 000 homes in 172 villages have been submerged following a week of heavy rains in Java, Indonesia, local officials confirmed on December 9, 2024. Heavy rains affecting Java since last week have caused rivers to overflow, flooding 172 villages in Sukabumi district with water, mud, and debris. Landslides, rocks, and fallen trees have buried homes and swept away vehicles and livestock. Over 3 000 people have been evacuated to temporary shelters. Lt. Col. Yudi Hariyanto, who leads the rescue command post in Sukabumi, recovered 10 bodies, including 3 children, from the worst-hit villages of Tegalbuleud, Simpenan, and Ciemas on December 9. The search continued for 2 villagers reported missing. “Torrential rains have caused rivers to burst their banks, tearing through more than 170 villages in Sukabumi district of West Java province, as mud, rocks, and trees tumbled down mountainside hamlets,” Hariyanto added. The disaster has hit Sukabumi district in West Java, forcing thousands to evacuate and causing severe damage to roads, buildings, and farmland. The Disaster Management Agency reported the destruction of 31 bridges and 81 roads in Sukabumi district. Floodwaters submerged 1 170 homes up to the roofs and caused damage to an additional 3 300 buildings. Rice fields spanning 539 hectares (1 332 acres) were destroyed, posing a severe threat to local food security. Seasonal rains, occurring from October to March, frequently lead to flooding and landslides in Indonesia. The mountainous terrain and fertile plains of the country place millions of residents at risk.Heavy rainfall caused flash floods and landslides in North Sumatra, killing 20 people and leaving 2 missing in November 2024. A landslide also hit a tourist bus, killing 9.
Tropical Cyclone Chido hits Agalega as the strongest in over 50 years, heads toward Mayotte and Mozambique - Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified before making landfall over the Agalega on Thursday, December 12, 2024, as the strongest cyclone to hit the island since 1983. The cyclone is now heading toward Madagascar, Mayotte, and Mozambique. Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Chido at 12:15 UTC on December 12, 2024.
- Tropical Cyclone Chido underwent rapid intensification soon after formation, with wind speeds surging from 111 km/h (69 mph) to 222 km/h (138 mph) in 24 hours to 21:00 UTC on December 11.
- The system made landfall over the island of Agalega, Mauritius as the strongest cyclone to hit the island since 1983.
- Chido is expected to brush past northern Madagascar on Friday, December 13, and approach Mayotte before likely making landfall near Nacala, Mozambique, on Sunday, December 15.
Tropical Cyclone Chido formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean Basin on Tuesday, December 10, as the third named storm of the 2024/25 Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone season. Rapid intensification started soon after formation, with wind speeds increasing from 111 km/h (69 mph) to 222 km/h (138 mph) in 24 hours to 21:00 UTC on Wednesday, December 11. The system was located near the Island of Agalega (population 330) at around 00:00 UTC on Thursday, making landfall on Agaléga North Island later on the same day as a category 4-equivalent intense tropical cyclone. Sorry, the video player failed to load. (Error Code: 104153) Chido became the strongest cyclone to hit the island since Cyclone Andry in 1983, which claimed one life, left around 349 stranded, and destroyed nearly all structures on the island. satellite image of agalega mauritius on november 26 2024 Enhanced Infrared (EIR) imagery acquired at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday showed a compact 11 km (7 miles) wide eye surrounded by stronger convection. Chido will brush past the northern tip of Madagascar at around 18:00 UTC on Friday and is forecast to move close to or possibly directly over Mayotte in the northern Mozambique Channel on Saturday, December 14. It is expected to make landfall along the northeastern coast of Mozambique, likely just north of Nacala, on Sunday, December 15. Advanced intensity analysis tools indicate that the system peaked at around 16:00 UTC on Wednesday, when the raw Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) values exceeded T6.2, with the eye reaching its warmest temperatures. The cyclone is expected to weaken as it approaches Madagascar due to cooler sea surface temperatures, with a possible eyewall replacement cycle temporarily weakening the storm. Despite weakening, the system is expected to remain a strong tropical cyclone near Mayotte. The system is forecast to have maximum sustained winds of around 130 – 150 km/h (80 – 95 mph) at landfall and is expected to rapidly weaken and dissipate by December 16.
Franklin Fire forces urgent evacuations near Malibu Canyon Road, Los Angeles, California - A rapidly spreading Franklin Fire broke out on Monday night (LT), December 9, 2024, near Malibu Canyon Road, California amid a Red Flag Warning and severe Santa Ana winds, placing nearby residents on urgent mandatory evacuation.
- The Franklin Fire broke out near Malibu Canyon Road on Monday night and quickly spread to cover over 40 ha (100 acres), prompting mandatory evacuations and road closures. The fire is designated as a Third Alarm incident.
- The fire is fueled by Santa Ana winds with gusts reaching up to 130 km/h (80 mph) and critically low humidity levels of 9 – 13%. A Red Flag Warning was issued for the region, warning of life-threatening fire behavior.
- Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for areas east of Malibu Canyon Road and south of Piuma Road. Firefighters are deploying ground and air resources to contain the blaze, while residents are urged to exercise caution amidst warnings of potential power outages and tree damage caused by high winds.
By 23:50 LT on Monday, the fire had already spread to approximately 40 ha (100 acres), according to the Los Angeles County Fire Department. A mandatory evacuation order was issued for areas east of Malibu Canyon Road, south of Piuma Road, and the Serra Retreat area. The blaze has been designated a Third Alarm incident by the fire department. It is spreading rapidly across the region, with several ground and air units deployed to suppress it. The cause of the fire remains under investigation. Malibu Canyon, from Mulholland Drive to the Pacific Coast Highway, was closed by the California Highway Patrol as firefighters worked to contain the blaze. Pepperdine University officials released a statement confirming they were closely monitoring the fire. “The fire is not currently affecting any university campus,” the statement noted. “However, the Malibu Campus and surrounding area may experience power outages related to this incident.” Winds were expected to reach 50 – 65 km/h (30 – 40 mph) during the incident, with gusts of up to 105 km/h (65 mph), accompanied by humidity levels of 9 – 13% through Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Dangerous fire weather conditions were anticipated over the past couple of days, prompting the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue multiple warnings and caution residents about life-threatening fire behavior. A Red Flag Warning was issued for the Santa Ana Wind Corridor in Ventura County and Los Angeles from Monday through Wednesday, December 11. The NWS warned of a “particularly dangerous situation” due to extreme and life-threatening fire behavior between 20:00 LT on Monday and 14:00 LT on Tuesday. The event was forecasted to be as severe as the Santa Ana event of November 5 – 6, which triggered the Mountain Fire. The NWS urged residents to exercise extreme caution, as strong winds of 80 – 130 km/h (50 – 80 mph) were expected, potentially downing trees and causing power outages. As of 22:30 LT on Monday, the strongest Santa Ana wind gusts were reported as follows: 129 km/h (80 mph) at Magic Mountain Trail, 111 km/h (69 mph) at Boney Mountain, and 104 km/h (65 mph) at Palo Sola Truck Road.
Homes Destroyed As Malibu Fire Rages Near Pepperdine University --A wildfire that quickly grew amid windy, dry conditions in Malibu, California, destroyed homes and forced residents to flee. Named the Franklin Fire, it had burned more than 4 square miles near the campus of Pepperdine University as of Tuesday afternoon. About 700 firefighting personnel were involved in efforts to contain the blaze.“It was insane,” Malibu evacuee Jessica Jones told the Los Angeles Times. “The bright red flames and glow of the fire were all around the ridgeline as we were leaving.” Jones and her companion Matthew Ryder fled the fire with four things very important to them: Their goats named Willie, Russell and Ginger, along with potbellied pig Penelope. The cause of the fire wasn't immediately known, but Santa Ana winds were to blame for extremely dangerous fire conditions across much of Southern California.Gusts over 50 mph were reported in the area of the fire.“Combine that with single digit humidity levels and the fact that it’s barely rained at all early in the wet season, and it’s a tinderbox,” weather.com senior meteorologist Chris Dolce said.Fire officials said that a "minimal number" of homes had burned but there were no reports of serious injuries or deaths.Crews first responded to the blaze at around 10:45 p.m. local time Monday night, according to KTLA-TV.The evacuation order encompassed about 6,000 people and more than 2,000 structures, KABC-TV reported, attributing that information to fire officials.Pepperdine canceled classes and finals for the day and there was a shelter-in-place order. The order was lifted Tuesday morning.Flames could be seen from the campus, according to a university statement. Fire engines were on campus and helicopters were dropping water collected from lakes in the school's Alumni Park onto the fire. Power to tens of thousands of people had been shut off by Monday night as utilities worked to mitigate the impacts of Southern California’s notorious Santa Ana winds, whose strong gusts could damage electrical equipment and spark wildfires. The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for high fire risk with a rare “particularly dangerous situation,” or PDS, designation starting at 8 p.m. Monday into Tuesday for Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Public urged to avoid Malibu at all costs as Franklin Fire threatens thousands, California - video- The Franklin Fire has rapidly engulfed 1 233 ha (3 049 acres) in Malibu, California since its start late Monday night, December 9, 2024, prompting mandatory evacuations for thousands and leaving firefighters battling zero containment as of Tuesday morning, December 10, 2024. The blaze is currently threatening around 18 000 citizens along with over 8 000 structures. Authorities are urging the public to stay away from the Malibu area at all costs.
- The Franklin Fire has engulfed approximately 1 233 ha (3 049 acres) of lasnd since its start on Monday night, with zero containment reported as of Tuesday.
- Approximately 18 000 people and 8 100 structures are in the affected area, with 2 043 structures under mandatory evacuation orders and 6 046 under evacuation warnings.
- Over 1 500 personnel have been deployed to combat the fire, as high winds and dry conditions exacerbate the situation. The state has secured a FEMA Fire Management Assistance Grant to ensure adequate resources for firefighting.
- A Red Flag Warning remains in place for the region, indicating critical fire weather conditions. Authorities continue to investigate the cause of the blaze, while urging residents to avoid the Malibu area entirely.
The Franklin Fire, first reported at 22:45 local time (LT) on Monday, December 9, grew to approximately 1 230 ha (3 049 acres) with 0 % containment, as of 04:40 LT on Tuesday, December 10. Over 1 500 personnel have been deployed to combat the fire. A mandatory evacuation order is in effect for the following areas: MAL-C111, MAL-C112, MCR-U021A, RMB-U030, SDP-U029-A, and MAL-C113-A. Approximately 18 000 people and 8 100 structures are within the affected area. Of the 8 100 structures, 2 043 are under evacuation orders and 6 046 are under evacuation warnings, according to Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna on Tuesday. “Stay away from the Malibu area if you can, at all costs,” Deputy Tracy Koerner stated on Tuesday. Malibu City Hall, parks, and facilities are closed on Tuesday, with all programs and meetings suspended, according to the City of Malibu. The Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District announced that all Malibu schools will remain closed until Thursday, December 12. The fire has spread across the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH) and is threatening several structures and thousands of residents. Authorities have closed Malibu Canyon Road and Las Virgenes Road at Mulholland Highway leading to PCH. Governor Gavin Newsom announced on Tuesday that California has secured a Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to help ensure the availability of vital resources to suppress the blaze. The FMAG, which is provided through the President’s Disaster Relief Fund on a cost-share basis, will assist local, state, and tribal agencies responding to the fire to apply for 75 percent reimbursement of their eligible fire suppression costs. The cause of the blaze remains under investigation.
Franklin Fire live updates: Malibu wildfire burns near Pepperdine University, containment at 30% - (KABC) -- Firefighters are battling a wind-driven brush fire in Malibu that prompted evacuation orders and warnings for much of the city and caused Pepperdine University students to shelter in place on campus for two nights. The Franklin Fire was reported just before 11 p.m. Monday in the area of Malibu Canyon Road north of Pacific Coast Highway. The blaze has since grown to 4,037 acres and containment stands at 30%.At least nine structures were reported destroyed and another six damaged as of Wednesday evening. The cause of the fire is unknown.A real-time map provided by fire officials showed the perimeter and evacuation areas of the massive Franklin Fire.The map on the Los Angeles County Fire Department website reflected the mandatory evacuation order that covered the area east of Malibu Canyon Road and south of Piuma Road, as well as the Serra Retreat area. Fire officials said the voluntary evacuation order area encompassed about 6,000 people and more than 2,000 structures. The evacuation warning area covered 12,500 people and more than 6,000 structures. Soft closures: Open only to residents with identification
- Topanga Canyon Road to Pacific Coast Highway
- Old Topanga Canyon Road at Mulholland Highway to Topanga Canyon
Hard closures:
- Tuna Canyon at Pacific Coast Highway
- Kanan at Pacific Coast Highway
- Saddle Peak at Tuna Canyon
- Stunt Road at Mulholland Highway
- Cold Canyon at Piuma Road
- Piuma Road at Malibu Canyon all the way to Pacific Coast Highway
Malibu wildfire forces celebrities to flee luxury homes as devastation spreads - Thousands of people have vacated their homes in Malibu, California, due to the Franklin Fire setting the city ablaze, including a litany of high-profile residents.On Monday, fires spread throughout the area, exacerbated by dry land and Santa Ana winds. According to Cal Fire, six buildings have been damaged and nine have been destroyed. Only 7% of the blaze has been contained. Stars with homes reportedly in the affected area include Beyoncé and her embattled music mogul husband, Jay-Z, actress Julia Roberts, and popstar Lady Gaga. It's unclear if the stars' homes were affected by the fire.Meanwhile, Dick Van Dyke, Jane Seymour, Brooke Burke and other stars took to social media to share their devastation for their community, many fleeing with their children and beloved animals. Treasured legend Van Dyke told his followers he and his longtime love, wife Arlene Silver, had to leave Malibu. "Arlene and I have safely evacuated with our animals except for [our cat] Bobo escaped as we were leaving. We’re praying he’ll be ok and that our community in Serra Retreat will survive these terrible fires," Van Dyke wrote Wednesday on his official Facebook page.Hours later, the veteran actor commented that he'd reunited with his feline friend. On Thursday morning, Van Dyke appeared on the "Today" show and recounted the harrowing evacuation process. "It was coming over the hill. You [could] see it," he said of the fire. "I was trying to crawl to the car. I had exhausted myself. I couldn’t get up. And three neighbors came and carried me out and came back and put out a little fire in the guest house and saved me." Mark Hamill could not evacuate Malibu due to the Franklin wildfire. The "Star Wars" actor alerted fans on social media that he was in lockdown. "Please stay safe everyone! I'm not allowed to leave the house, which fits in perfectly with my elderly-recluse lifestyle," the 73-year-old wrote. Former "Dancing with the Stars" champion and TV personality Brooke Burke said she and her family are safe after evacuating their Malibu home. The mother of four shared photos on her Instagram, including one of her standing beside a firefighter who seemed to be canvasing the area. "Prayers for Malibu…what a community. We love our home & we fight to protect it & somehow we remain disaster after disaster honoring this sacred space . I’m so grateful for all of our friends that have reached out & family, gardeners, helpers , neighbors & the 1000+ firstresponders, law enforcement, volunteers, & workers that helped save so much. So grateful for all the brave firefighters trying to navigate the uncertainty of Mother Nature & wicked winds," she wrote.In a separate video shared on her Instagram story, Burke told followers her children, animals and home were all safe. "Just heartbroken for our friends and neighbors who can't say the same thing. ... Wild times in Malibu," she said.
2024 set to be warmest year ever recorded, NOAA predicts -November was Earth’s second-warmest month in 175 years of record-keeping, and the year is all but certain to be the warmest on record, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Average worldwide land and ocean surface temperatures for the month were 2.41 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 55.2-degree average in the 20th century. Only last November, which was 0.14 degrees warmer, surpassed this year.The month was also the second-warmest recorded for Oceania and South America while in Asia, it was the warmest on record.For the first 11 months of the year, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 2.3 degrees warmer than the last century’s average, the warmest recorded temperature for the first 11 months of the year and for every continent excluding Asia. Based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information’s (NCEI) Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is only a 1 percent chance 2024 will fall short of the record.NOAA also found that last month, Arctic sea ice extent was the third-lowest ever recorded for November, while coverage was the overall lowest ever recorded for both the Antarctic and the globe in general.The report comes just more than a month after the agency determined that October was both the second-warmest and second-driest October recorded in the U.S. after 1963, with anaverage temperature nearly 5 degrees warmer than that of the 20th century.Meanwhile, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service drew similar conclusions in November, saying not only was October the second-warmest ever recorded after 2023, but also that 2024 is likely to be the warmest ever recorded.The service also found October was the 15th of the last 16 months in which the global average surface air temperature was above the 1.5 degrees Celsius identified as the warming thresholdby the Paris Climate Agreement.
Earthquake swarm near New Madrid, Missouri - A series of earthquakes struck near the New Madrid Fault Line in southeastern Missouri on December 9, 2024, with the strongest registering M3.0 at 06:27 UTC (12:27 local time), according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This region, known as the New Madrid Seismic Zone, is the most seismically active area in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. The sequence started at 06:00 UTC (00:00 LT) on December 9 with an M2.0 quake at a depth of 12.2 km (7.6 miles), located 6 km (3.7 miles) ESE of Hayward (population 131). M2.2 was registered just 8 minutes later about 8 km (5 miles) ESE of Matthews (population 628), at a depth of 19.2 km (12 miles). The strongest of the sequence, an M3.0 earthquake, struck near Howardville (population 367) at 06:27 UTC (00:27 LT) at a depth of 7.8 km (4.8 miles). M2.1, M1.8, and M1.9 were registered by 12:25 UTC, followed by the final earthquake at 13:30 UTC (07:30 LT) — an M2.2 near Marston (population 477), Missouri at a depth of 8.4 km (5.2 miles). Earthquakes detected by USGS on December 9, 2024. Credit: TW/SAM, Google The New Madrid Seismic Zone is one of the most seismically active regions in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. However, such swarms are not uncommon in this area and do not necessarily indicate an impending larger earthquake. They are typically characterized by clusters of small to moderate earthquakes occurring over a short period. They often result from the gradual release of tectonic stress along fault lines or changes in subsurface conditions, such as fluid movement within the Earth’s crust. While the New Madrid Seismic Zone has historically produced some of the most powerful earthquakes in the United States, modern monitoring has shown that smaller swarms are relatively frequent. The zone produced 3 massive earthquakes, estimated to have been between M7.0 and M8.0, from 1811 to 1812. The events caused widespread destruction and were felt as far as Cincinnati, Ohio; Charleston, South Carolina; and New Orleans, Louisiana. Earthquakes here occur on a complex network of faults within the Reelfoot Rift, an ancient geological feature that formed approximately 500 million years ago. The faults are buried beneath layers of sediment, making seismic activity difficult to predict.
Powerful explosive eruption and pyroclastic flows at Kanlaon volcano force urgent evacuation of 87 000 people, Philippines - A powerful explosive eruption, lasting 7 minutes, took place at Kanlaon volcano on Negros Island, Philippines, on Monday, December 9, producing a large ash plume that rose to about 6.7 km (22 000 feet) above sea level (a.s.l.) and drifted west-southwest. Pyroclastic density currents or PDCs descended the slopes on the general southeastern edifice based on IP and thermal camera monitors. As a result, PHIVOLCS raised the Alert Level from 2 to 3, indicating the start of a magmatic eruption that may progress to further explosive eruptions. All local government units were advised to evacuate the 6 km (3.7 miles) radius from the summit of the volcano and be prepared for additional evacuation if activity warrants. In Bago City, residents of all barangays near Kanlaon were advised to stay indoors, while residents in villages near the foot of the volcano were advised to wear masks for protection. The Civil Aviation Authority also warned pilots to steer clear of the area due to the dangers posed by ash and debris. An urgent evacuation operation is in progress as the threat of eruption from Kanlaon volcano intensifies, affecting approximately 87 000 residents in surrounding areas, PHIVOLCS reports. The Department of National Defense – Philippines Secretary and National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Chairman Gilberto Teodoro, Jr. has activated the National Inter-agency Coordinating Cell (IACC) to lead response efforts. Starting December 10, member agencies will report for in-person duty at the NDRRMOC to enhance coordination.
Impulsive X2.2 solar flare erupts from Region 3912, glancing blow possible on December 11 - By A major solar flare measuring X2.2 erupted from Active Region 3912 at 09:06 UTC on December 8, 2024. The event started at 08:50 and ended at 09:10 UTC. X2.2 solar flare on December 8, 2024. Credit: NOAA/GOES-16 A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 626 km/s was associated with the event, indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst lasting 3 minutes and with a peak flux of 870 sfu was associated with this event, indicating significant radio noise. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Southwest Indian Ocean at the time of the flare. The location of the responsible region suggests at least part of this CME might be Earth-directed. Subsequent analysis suggests a possibility for a weak glancing blow on December 11 at best. This might couple with influence from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), but nothing more than isolated active geomagnetic field periods are expected. Region 3912 has ‘beta-gamma’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more strong eruptions on the Sun.
Cassidy moves to sell Republicans on carbon tariff pitch -Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy is making his hardest sell yet on conservative legislation linking climate action with trade policy.In a bid to build support for his proposal even before the start of the next Congress, the Cassidy on Wednesday unveiled a slimmed-down, 20-page “discussion draft” version of his year-old, 100-page “Foreign Pollution Fee Act.”The incoming GOP governing trifecta will be working fast to put together the contours of two budget reconciliation packages, and Cassidy believes his bill could be a prime candidate for inclusion.“It’s consistent with what the Trump administration wants to do,” Cassidy told reporters on Wednesday. “It could actually raise revenue for a reconciliation bill, and so therefore we want to get it more into the discussion now.”At its core, the purpose of the retooled “Foreign Pollution Fee Act” remains the same as the original: Leverage data showing that the United States produces certain materials “cleaner” than foreign adversaries — namely China — and impose a fee on certain imports.The fee would still only affect foreign products, continuing to ignore the argument from many Democrats and advocates that a domestic price on carbon is necessary for any new trade policy to meet compliance with the World Trade Organization.One major change includes a more streamlined system for imposing the new fees — a structure that is still being finalized by Cassidy’s office.The new language would significantly narrow down the list of foreign-made products that would be subject to an import fee. The original bill included energy imports like oil, natural gas, hydrogen, minerals, solar panels and wind turbines. So-called “covered products” in the new bill would include only aluminum, cement, glass, iron, fertilizer and steel.The decision to omit fossil fuels strikes some experts as counterproductive if one of the bill’s goals is to, according to a press release, “reward investments in decarbonization.” “It should cover as many products as possible … if the genuine goal is to address climate change,” said Shuting Pomerleau, director of Energy and Environmental Policy at the center-right group American Action Forum, who speculated a reason oil and gas were removed from the list was the fact that Cassidy’s home state is “a big fossil fuel-producing state.” George David Banks, a former Trump administration official who is now a conservative climate adviser, said the reason for the winnowed-down list was obvious. “It’s really hard to cover products that don’t want to be covered, or covered products that want to be covered but aren’t willing to endorse the bill,” he explained.“When you’re pulling together some sort of policy like this, you need to be really careful about how you spend your political capital, and if you include an industry that does not want to be covered — wow.” One such industry is the domestic oil refiners, who could see their supply of crude oil and petroleum affected if imported oil and petroleum are levied with a fee under Cassidy’s bill. Refiners were among those who lobbied hard earlier this year against separate bipartisan, bicameral legislation — the “Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emissions Intensity and Transparency (PROVE IT) Act” — which would call for a study of the carbon intensity of nearly three dozen industrial products made the U.S. in anticipation for being slapped with carbon tariffs in the coming months by the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Ohio Eminent Domain Grew to Include NGLs; Now Hydrogen & CO2? - Marcellus Drilling News - We spotted an interesting article in the Steubenville, Ohio, Herald-Star newspaper that tackles the issue of using eminent domain in the state for various kinds of pipelines. It provides an excellent history of eminent domain used not only for oil and natural gas pipelines but also how the Mariner East pipeline project led to “expanding” eminent domain to include NGLs like ethane and butane. Now, a couple of new types of pipelines are being contemplated in the Buckeye State—hydrogen pipelines and carbon dioxide (CO2) pipelines. Will eminent domain laws expand again to include the new kids on the block?
Eminent domain for carbon, hydrogen pipelines 'up for discussion' - The Herald Star - The Ohio Attorney General’s Office defines eminent domain as “the power of the federal, state and local governments to take private property for public use.” Sanctioned by the U.S. Constitution’s Fifth Amendment and Article 1, Section 19, of the Ohio Constitution, private property may be taken in exchange for a just compensation. Since Oct. 1, 1953, Ohio’s eminent domain provisions have been defined by Ohio Revised Code 1723.01 regarding “Power to enter upon or appropriate land.” As it relates to oil and gas, state law says, “If a company is organized for the purpose of … transporting natural or artificial gas, petroleum … (or) for storing, transporting, or transmitting water, natural or artificial gas, petroleum, … then such company … may appropriate so much of such land, or any right or interest therein, as is deemed necessary for the laying down or building of such (infrastructure) … necessary to the purposes of such companies.” Those provisions saw Ohio through development like the Marcellus and Utica shale drilling operations that began in the early 2010s, according to Dale Arnold, director of energy, utility and local government policy for the Ohio Farm Bureau Federation, whose role is to educate bureau members about energy-related issues.Provisions were put to the test as interest in new pipeline infrastructure arose for the transportation of certain substances. Whether eminent domain applied for a desired pipeline route depended on what substance would be transferred, Arnold said. If it was a consumer fuel like crude oil or gasoline or propane — substances used by the public for transportation, heating or energy generation — those provisions applied.Meanwhile, new focus on additional pipeline infrastructure arose in parts of Ohio, Kentucky and other places, Arnold said. Those lines carried natural gas liquids like ethane and butane, which are byproducts of natural gas processing and therefore are not direct consumer fuel derivatives, meaning eminent domain provisions didn’t apply.“(These pipelines) still are going across the state, and farmers also found out they had a greater opportunity and responsibility to negotiate easements and other agreements accommodating those across the property,” Arnold said.Ohio courts unanimously upheld these provisions despite challenges from major companies, Arnold said. However, something changed in Eastern Ohio that muddied the waters of interpretation, possibly setting the stage for eminent domain’s application toward future carbon and hydrogen pipeline construction.In 2015, Sunoco Pipeline L.P. tried and failed to negotiate a voluntary easement agreement with Carol A. Teter, trustee of the Carol A. Teter Revocable Living Trust and owner of a 162-acre farm in Jewett. Part of the Mariner East 2 Pipeline project, the pipeline would transport pure butane and propane from processing plants in Scio and Jewett to Sunoco’s Marcus Hook Industrial Complex in Pennsylvania and Delaware.Subsequently, Sunoco filed a request for appropriation to obtain easements for its pipeline to cross Teter’s property. Harrison County Common Pleas Court granted that request, leading Teter to appeal.Contrary to Teter’s argument, Ohio’s Seventh District Court of Appeals concluded that petroleum is not defined in ORC 1723.01, but other sections of ORC and Ohio Administrative Code do indicate pure butane and propane are considered to be petroleum, and “the word ‘petroleum’ has taken on a technical or industry definition, which includes pure propane and pure butane.”Also, the court concluded — in accordance with ORC 163.021(A), which requires corporations authorized by the government and seeking to use eminent domain prove the project is “necessary and for a public use” — that Sunoco’s pipeline was useful to the public, given that “some products containing Ohio propane and butane will return to Ohio,”and the path through Jeter’s property was reasonably convenient enough to justify a claim of necessity.The Seventh District Court upheld the Harrison County decision, and Teter appealed the case again, this time to the state Supreme Court, where it is pending. Arnold noted this decision sticks in the Seventh District but not statewide, though it may be looked to as a precedent in future cases.
Western governors adopt resolutions on environmental, energy, health policies -- Governors from the U.S. West came together this week to adopt a set of bipartisan resolutions, with a goal of solidifying state and federal partnerships on environmental policies, as well as energy, healthcare and labor issues.The leaders, who convened in Las Vegas for a Western Governors’ Association (WGA) meeting, approved five new measures as part of a larger set of 29 policy resolutions — which help inform their collective advocacy for Western priorities in Washington, D.C. “This organization operates in what I would argue isn’t really bipartisan anymore, it’s nonpartisan, it’s having concrete conversations with experts all across the country,” New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), this year’s WGA chair, said in a statement. “We ask tough questions and figure out ways to make that meaningful and solve those problems,” Also attending this latest meeting of the WGA, which represents the heads of the 22 westernmost U.S. states and territories, were six other governors: Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R), this year’s vice chair; Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D); Hawaii Gov. Josh Green (D); Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R); Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R); and Idaho Gov. Brad Little (R).
- The first resolution adopted by the group focused on the energy sector as both a significant contributor to U.S. West economies and a critical resource to meeting the nation’s demands. The governors expressed their collective commitment to grid modernization and resilience, innovation and economic and workforce development, while also incorporating the geothermal and decarbonization goals of the two previous WGA chairs, Polis and Gordon.
- A second resolution, on air quality protection and management, recognized the fact that Western states have achieved significant emissions reductions in recent decades. However, the resolution also emphasized a need to address ongoing challenges in the region — recommending stronger state-federal cooperation on regulating air quality, ozone, particulate matter, haze, methane and hydrofluorocarbon releases. Also included in this measure was support for prescribed burns, which the governors said could reduce the polluting effects of extreme wildfires.
- The third resolution, regarding workforce development, centered on the expansion of work-based learning, high-quality career and technical education and lifelong learning opportunities.
- A fourth resolution focused on what’s known as “compensatory mitigation,” or the restoration of wetlands to offset environmental impacts from land development — either directly or through the purchase of credits. Stressing the vital role compensatory measures play in their areas, the governors urged the federal government, which owns sizable chunks of land across the West, to adhere to state-based mitigation programs and policies.
- The fifth resolution, regarding physical and behavioral healthcare, noted the unique challenges that can prevent Western residents from accessing these services, particularly in rural, frontier or tribal communities. The governors acknowledged the importance of robust state-federal partnerships, with a goal of ensuring that all levels of government are collaborating on these issues.
‘Bridge or two too far’: Top Dem throws cold water on permitting - A key Democrat is balking at a last-gasp effort to overhaul the nation’s energy permitting laws.Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper, who is retiring and wants environmental protection to be central to his legacy, is objecting to House Republican demands to retool the National Environmental Policy Act — a 1970 law Democrats have long deemed sacrosanct.“I think they’ve gone a bridge or two too far,” the Delaware Democrat said Monday of House Republican asks. Nonetheless, he said, “We’re going to keep talking.”Asked what changes he would be OK with, Carper said, “Not as many as my friends in the House would like to make.”Those concerns — no doubt shared by many Democrats — complicate a bipartisan permitting and transmission deal being pushed by Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).Proponents want to attach the package to a must-pass bill by the end of the year. But negotiators are running short on both time and legislative vehicles before Congress is set to adjourn next week.Despite Carper’s hesitance, some Democrats seemed willing to swallow at least some Republican demands.“I think we should all keep our eye on the fact that we need to get to yes or no faster. … Permitting reform is really important if we are serious about our climate goals,” said Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Manchin’s likely successor as top Democrat on ENR. He also expressed frustration that a deal remains elusive. “I’ve been in a number of these conversations and I think that both sides have ruined the compromise,” he said. At issue is the package from Manchin and Barrasso, the “Energy Permitting Reform Act” S. 4753, which includes a mix of benefits for the oil and gas industry and provisions to more quickly build large scale power lines. That latter detail has elicited concern from House Energy and Commerce Republicans because it would embolden federal regulators over state planners.House Majority Leader Steve Scalise threw also cold water on the idea of a deal in the next week and a half, telling POLITICO’s E&E News on Tuesday, “There’s a lot of negotiations, but there has got to be real permitting reform beyond what we’ve seen so far.”
Biden admin moves to block mining in N.M. - - The Biden administration on Thursday moved to temporarily protect thousands of acres of public land along the Pecos River in New Mexico from a mining boom taking hold across the West. Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland initiated a two-year withdrawal of about 165,000 acres in the Upper Pecos watershed in Santa Fe, New Mexico, from new mining claims and the issuance of new federal mineral leases, subject to valid existing rights. The agency’s move responds to a growing push among Democrats in the Land of Enchantment for permanent protection in a part of the state with critical water resources tied to tourism, agriculture and biodiversity. Earlier this month, Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico and other Democrats in the state — including Sen. Ben Ray Luján and Reps. Teresa Leger Fernandez, Melanie Stansbury and Gabe Vasquez — called on the Forest Service to complete the initial steps of the mineral withdrawal process in the Upper Pecos Watershed, warning that the area was vulnerable to mining and mine pollution.They pointed to incidents in the past that have damaged the river, including when a closed mine spilled toxic waste into the Pecos in 1991, killing fish along an 11-mile stretch, triggering a costly, time-consuming cleanup that scarred the river.While the agency’s protects are temporary, Congress can impose permanent protections. Last year, Heinrich, Luján, and Leger Fernandez introduced the Pecos Watershed Protection Act to protect portions of the Pecos Watershed in northern New Mexico from all mineral development.. Heinrich called the temporary protection a “major victory.” “The Upper Pecos Watershed has an unfortunate history of poorly managed mining and development projects that have put New Mexicans and our ways of life and cultures at risk,” he said. “While we continue pressing our colleagues in Congress to pass our Pecos Watershed Protection Act to ensure permanent protection from harmful mining operations, we urge the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service to move forward with longer-term administrative protections. I urge them to schedule the required public meeting on this administrative protection proposal immediately.” The agency’s move drew immediate praise from Trout Unlimited, which has long called for protecting the headwaters of the Pecos River. The area has emerged as a focal point for conservation groups in the state since a mining company first showed interest in the area in 2019.
Supreme Court to hear case that could restrict bedrock environmental law - The Supreme Court will hear arguments Tuesday in a case that could reduce the scope of one of the nation’s bedrock environmental laws.The case deals with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which mandates that the government consider the environmental impacts of its actions before moving ahead with them. The court will weigh whether upstream and downstream impacts from a project should be considered as part of that process. The case could result in the court’s conservative majority significantly limiting which environmental impacts need to be evaluated in federal decisions.Environmental groups warn such a decision could pose risks for both the environment and public health.Sam Sankar, senior vice president for programs at Earthjustice, told reporters last week that the court could implement “a radical restriction of the way that the government evaluates the environmental impacts of its major decisions.”If it does so, he said, “the government will make decisions with far less information about environmental impacts and based on the history of environmental law, that will inevitably lead to more pollution, more health impacts, more loss of biodiversity and greater injuries to climate.”However, industry sees the potential limitation of the law’s scope as a way to limit costly and time-consuming litigation. “While you are litigating … it just increases the cost of building infrastructure,” said Joan Dreskin, general counsel for the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, which represents gas pipeline companies. “It increases the cost in your borrowing rates because it’s seen as risky by your investors,” she said. “So it is delaying much needed infrastructure that the authorizing federal agency has already determined to be in the public convenience and necessity.”The particular case going before the court deals with a proposed railway line that would deliver crude oil produced in the Uinta Basin in Utah to refineries where it can be made into usable fuel. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of environmental groups and a Colorado county who argued that a government environmental study of the railway incorrectly ignored the impacts of both producing the oil that would be transported and refining it later on.The appeals court decision said that the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, which performed the environmental study, “is not allowed ‘to shirk [its] responsibilities under NEPA by labeling’ these reasonably foreseeable upstream and downstream ‘environmental effects as crystal ball inquiry.’”However, the railway company and a group of Utah counties challenged that decision, arguing that upstream and downstream impacts should not be considered. They also wrote in their petition that an agency should only weigh “the proximate effects of the actions over which it has regulatory authority” rather than consider any “reasonably foreseeable” impact. “Boundless NEPA review hurts project proponents and the public too. The time and expense of environmental review is a barrier to all kinds of new projects — including clean energy projects — that prevents some of them from ever getting off the ground,” they wrote. They will get their day in court on Tuesday after the high court agreed to take their case. Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch has recused himself following scrutiny of his ties to an oil billionaire whose company filed a brief in the case saying it would be impacted by the outcome. The high court’s other eight justices are set to consider the case. The case is expected to be particularly impactful for fossil fuel infrastructure and projects — as politicians have long debated, for example, whether and how to consider the climate impacts of the eventual use of these fuels when deciding whether to approve drilling and mining. However, it also could go beyond that to impact numerous types of government decisions. “The clearest analogs are certainly to other types of fossil fuel infrastructure, but the implications are wider-ranging,” said Bridget Pals, an attorney at New York University’s Institute for Policy Integrity. While it’s not entirely clear which way the court will rule, in recent years the conservative majority has moved to curtail the scope of environmental laws, particularly those related to protections from climate change and water pollution.
BP, Pulling Back from Renewables, Enters $5.8B JV with JERA - BP and Japan’s largest power generator JERA are combining their offshore wind businesses to become one of the world’s biggest offshore wind developers, the companies said Dec. 9. With capital commitments of up to $5.8 billion through the end of 2030, the 50-50 joint venture will create JERA Nex bp. The companies will have a total potential net generating capacity of 13 gigawatts (GW) comprised of operating assets and development projects, according to a news release. “This will be a very strong vehicle to grow into an electrifying world, while maintaining a capital-light model for our shareholders,” BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said. The alliance takes shape as BP pulls back from renewables to focus on higher returns and cash flow generation. It also takes place as offshore wind developers push forward with projects having faced high interest rates, supply chain issues and inflation that slowed or stopped some developments in recent years. “Offshore wind has significant potential and is a critical component of the energy transition,” said JERA CEO Yukio Kani. “The sector is at an inflection point, and we believe the transformative partnership launched today between our two companies combines the resources, capabilities, and network necessary to be a world-class offshore wind company, and in doing so, realize the potential of offshore wind globally, while positioning this business for long term success.” The companies will contribute operating assets with about 1 GW net generating capacity, a pipeline of development projects with about 7.5 GW capacity and secured leases with about 4.5 GW of potential capacity, according to a news release. The JV will initially focus on advancing existing projects in Australia, Europe and Japan, and plans are to pursue competitive projects that add value and optimize the combined portfolio. JERA, which is owned by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and Chubu Electric Power, said it entered the offshore wind market in 2019 with investments in projects in the U.K. and Taiwan. In 2023, JERA acquired Belgium offshore wind company Parkwind. The largest development project JERA is bringing to the JV is the 1.5 GW Sørlige Nordsjø II offshore Norway. BP brings to the table more than 4.5 GW of secured leases, including Beacon Wind in the U.S., along with about 5.7 GW of projects under development. These include the 2.1-GW Oceanbeat West and 2.1-GW Oceanbeat East offshore Germany.
Biden doubles tariffs on Chinese solar panel components - The Biden administration will double tariffs on certain solar panel components that are made in China, it announced Wednesday. Starting in January, imports of Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon will carry a 50 percent tariff, up from the current levy of 25 percent. Polysilicon is a type of silicon that is used to make solar panels, while wafers are the semiconductors used in the panels. In addition, the administration said it would increase tariffs on certain Chinese products made out of the mineral tungsten, which has applications in the aerospace, automotive, defense, medical, and oil and gas industries. In a written statement, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the increased tariffs would hurt China and support U.S. investments. “The tariff increases announced today will further blunt the harmful policies and practices by the People’s Republic of China,” she said. “These actions will complement the domestic investments made under the Biden-Harris Administration to promote a clean energy economy, while increasing the resilience of critical supply chains,” Tai added. The Biden administration has previously taken other steps to increase tariffs on Chinese solarand other equipment — arguing that it’s doing so in support of domestic manufacturing. More broadly, the administration has sought to make the case that climate action and job growth can be compatible, and has sought to encourage domestic manufacturing of climate-friendly energy sources. In addition, the administration has found that forced labor is used to produce Chinese polysilicon. A group representing U.S. solar manufacturing companies called for further action. “It is an important precedent that a 50% tariff will soon cover the whole solar module supply chain in China,” . “But we must go a step further to expand this approach and address the significant trade distortion that exists outside of China from Chinese-owned solar companies to fundamentally help put U.S. workers on a more level playing field,”
DOE finalizes $1.25B loan to build EV charging network - The Department of Energy closed a $1.25 billion loan guarantee Thursday with EVgo, which plans to use the funds to build more than a thousand electric vehicle charging stations over the next five years. It is the latest in a wave of multibillion-dollar EV-related loans that are being hustled out the door in the waning days of the Biden presidency, before President-elect Donald Trump takes charge with the stated desire to scale back federal EV investments.The EVgo loan is finalized, meaning the funds have been committed. That may make it harder for the Trump administration to unwind than recent headline-grabbing conditional loans, which won’t be finalized until companies meet stringent targets. That includes DOE’s $7.5 billion loan guarantee to Stellantis, the European parent of brands like Jeep and Dodge, to build two EV battery plants in Indiana, as well as its $6.6 billion commitment to Rivian Automotive to launch an EV manufacturing factory outside of Atlanta.On Thursday, the head of DOE’s Loan Programs Office pushed back against criticism from Trump’s allies that the recent wave of loans are dubious.
White House weighing executive action to spur data centers - President Joe Biden’s administration is considering executive action to fast-track the construction of data centers key to artificial intelligence — with potentially much looser environmental constraints, two people familiar with the discussions said Wednesday.The exact nature of the action is still under discussion, the people said. They said the White House was discussing using the Defense Production Act, which gives the president broad emergency powers, to achieve its goal.The action could allow data centers to exceed pollution limits, open federal lands to data center construction and give data centers priority access to available power supply, the people said. One of the sources said the policy under discussion would take the form of an executive order.White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson called the sources’ report “inaccurate” but did not specify on record which aspects.
Deadly chocolate factory explosion caused by faulty gas fitting, safety board finds - Cascading failures involving a corroded steam pipe and a defective natural gas fitting caused a powerful explosion in 2023 at a Pennsylvania chocolate factory, killing seven workers when the company failed to evacuate, a federal safety board said Tuesday. About 70 production workers and 35 office staff at R.M. Palmer Co. were working in two adjacent buildings at the time of the blast. Employees in both buildings told federal investigators they could smell gas before the explosion. Workers at the plant have accused the company of ignoring warnings of a natural gas leak, saying the plant, in a small town 60 miles (96 kilometers) northwest of Philadelphia, should have been evacuated.The National Transportation Safety Board said the factory failed to have natural gas emergency procedures in place that could have resulted in an immediate evacuation. The explosion leveled one building and heavily damaged another, sending flames more than 40 feet (21 meters) into the air and causing $42 million in property damage.“Contributing to the accident's severity was R.M. Palmer Company's insufficient emergency response procedures and training of its employees, who did not understand the hazard and did not evacuate the buildings before the explosion,” the National Transportation Safety Board said in its statement of probable cause, approved Tuesday at the board's meeting in Washington, D.C.Palmer has since adopted a revised policy on evacuations, but Jennifer Homendy, the NTSB board chair, said it’s still insufficient because it advises staff to investigate and determine if evacuation is necessary.“That’s exactly what they did in this scenario,” she said. “'No, you leave.' Now, their response is they have other smells in their building because chocolate is being made. You know the difference between natural gas smell and chocolate. ‘Get out, immediately.’ So I think this actually provides significant confusion for their employees and they should change it.”
DEC: Hydroelectric plant spills 200 gallons of oil in Hudson River - — Hydraulic oil was found spilled in the Hudson River on Monday by a nearby hydroelectric plant. The state Department of Environmental Conservation was alerted to the issue by a report from a hydroelectric facility downstream. There was a visible oil sheen on the river along portions of Saratoga and Rensselaer counties.About 30 minutes later, a hydroelectric plant owned by the New York State Electric and Gas company was identified as the cause of the oil spill. The company spilled approximately 200 gallons of hydraulic oil, according to the DEC. The spill allegedly had no impact on drinking water. A New York State Electric and Gas spokesperson said that the company is currently working with contractors, as well as state and local officials, to respond to the release of oil from its facility. Cleanup efforts were ongoing Wednesday and will likely be completed by the end of the week.
$11B Power Line from Upstate NY Solar & Wind to NYC Canceled-- Marcellus Drilling News -For those unlucky enough to live in New York City and its sprawling suburbs, get ready for blackouts due to the lack of electricity. The state of New York and developers of the 175-mile Clean Path NY transmission line have “mutually agreed to terminate” contracts underpinning the project, which was planned to come online in 2027. Clean Path was supposed to bring 5 gigawatts (GW) of electricity from windmills and solar farms in Upstate New York to liberal elites living in and around NYC. The project was billed as “critical” to achieving New York’s climate goals, including 70% renewable electricity consumption by 2030 and developing a zero-emission electric grid by 2040. That’s all down the toilet now. Get ready to sit in the dark.
Midwest grid signs off on record $21B transmission ‘backbone’ - Two years after approving the largest-ever portfolio of new transmission projects, Midwest grid planners are now doubling down on plans for high-voltage wires to enable more renewable energy and battery technology across the region. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) board Thursday approved a $30 billion package of new electric transmission and upgrades across the nation’s central region. The centerpiece of the plan: $21.8 billion for two dozen new regional power lines creating a high-voltage “backbone” in the Midwest. The plan would enable more than 100 gigawatts of new generation — roughly the same as adding 100 large power stations. And some of the enhancements are aimed at bolstering resilience against more frequent and severe storms.Two dozen states and most of the nation’s electric utilities have made zero-carbon commitments that require upgrades to regional grids. In MISO alone, it is estimated that $100 billion in new power lines will be needed to meet goals over the next 20 years. That estimate came before recent forecasts projecting surging demand from new data centers, manufacturing expansions, electric vehicles and green hydrogen production.“We need to get ahead and start planning for this projected load growth, which is going to be immense,” said Brian Drumm, director of regional policy and RTO engagement at ITC Holdings, the nation’s largest transmission-only utility.“It’s data centers, it’s [artificial ntelligence], it’s industrial processes, electrification, EVs,” Drumm said. “These things are really starting to hit all at once, and they’re big and they’re widespread.” In addition to the package of regional power lines, MISO’s board also approved $1.65 billion for a series of transmission projects to better connect the region with its neighbor to the west, the Southwest Power Pool, and $6.7 billion for more than 400 local transmission projects across its territory.The process that culminated with Thursday’s approval of the expansion started taking shape five years ago in a very different economic environment. The Covid-19 pandemic raged. The economy teetered on a recession. The Inflation Reduction Act, which is accelerating renewable energy growth and spurring domestic manufacturing, didn’t exist. And electricity demand from data centers serving an AI boom wasn’t on anyone’s radar.The planning process was in response to utility plans that provided a glimpse of the future — one where coal plants that were no longer profitable enough were shutting down. Wind power in the Midwest and Great Plains, in particular, would require long-distance power lines to get that power to population centers.Today, MISO spans from North Dakota to southern Louisiana. But some of those closest to the planning process agree it was the support of governors in the upper Midwest and regulators that, as one former utility regulator put it, gave MISO “political cover” to push forward when they encountered opposition.The push for current long-range transmission planning efforts began in 2019 when utility commissioners from a dozen MISO states, red and blue, adopted a one-page statement of principles that laid out guidelines for grid planners to follow.The backing has continued since then with several letters from Midwest governors stating the need for an updated grid. The most recent of those letters came this week from three Democratic governors in the Midwest — Illinois Govs. J.B Pritzker of Illinois, Tim Walz of Minnesota and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan — urging MISO’s board to approve the historic investment in new regional power lines.The governors, all of whom have signed laws to transition their states to zero-carbon power, said MISO’s planning efforts are “even more critical given the potential for long-term local growth from the reshoring of American manufacturing, the growth of electric vehicle adoption, and the recent emergence of data center growth.”Estimates show a more robust grid that enables cheap wind and solar power to be moved more easily across state lines could avoid the need to build 20 gigawatts of generation. That alone represents a savings of $16.3 billion, according to MISO.“MISO has done a ton of economic and engineering work to show what these lines enable,” said Beth Soholt, executive director of the Clean Grid Alliance, a trade association for renewable energy and transmission developers.
‘This warning isn’t hypothetical’: Drones threaten grid infrastructure - State and local officials are requesting clear authority from Congress to disable drones that threaten power plants and other infrastructure as alarms are sounded over aerial vehicles circling airspace in the metropolitan New York region. Bipartisan members of the House Homeland Security Committee promised Tuesday to renew federal authority on drone defense before the current provisions expire Dec. 20. They also agreed to pursue new legislation next year that would allow law enforcement at more levels to strengthen their defenses.“The risk posed by commercial and military-grade UAS [unmanned aircraft systems] in the hands of rogue states, non-state actors, and even terrorist organizations cannot be overstated,” members said in a bipartisan statement opening the joint hearing of the subcommittees on Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement and Intelligence and Transportation and Maritime Security. Rep. Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.), the panel’s top Democrat, called on Congress to expand the authority of federal, state and local law enforcement agencies to use monitoring, tracking and signal jamming technologies to protect critical areas.
Making a $1B investment in the US? Trump pledges expedited permits — but there are hurdles - (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump is promising expedited federal permits forenergy projects and other construction worth more than $1 billion. But like other Trump plans, the idea is likely to run into regulatory and legislative hurdles, including a landmark law that requires federal agencies to consider the environmental impact before deciding on major projects. In a post on his Truth Social site Tuesday, Trump said anyone making a $1 billion investment in the United States “will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental approvals.” While Trump did not specify who would be eligible for accelerated approvals, dozens of energy projects proposed nationwide, from natural gas pipelines and export terminals to solar farms and offshore wind turbines, meet the billion-dollar criteria. Environmental groups slammed the proposal, calling it illegal on its face and a clear violation of the National Environmental Policy Act, a 54-year-old law that requires federal agencies to study the potential environmental impact of proposed actions and consider alternatives. “Trump is unabashedly and literally offering to sell out America to the highest corporate bidder,'' said Lena Moffitt, executive director of Evergreen Action, an environmental group. She said the plan was “obviously illegal” and another example of Trump “putting special interests and corporate polluters in the driver’s seat, which would result in more pollution, higher costs and fewer energy choices for the American people.” Alexandra Adams, chief policy advocacy officer at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said Trump should be careful what he wishes for. “What if someone wants to build a waste incinerator next to Mar-a-Lago or a coal mine next to Bedminster golf course?" she asked, referring to Trump's Florida home and New Jersey golf club, respectively. “There’s a reason Congress requires the government to take a hard look at community impacts to make sure we don’t greenlight projects that do more harm than good. Cheerleading on social media doesn’t change that reality,” Adams said. Energy analyst Kevin Book said Trump's post showed his usual flair for showmanship but said there was a real concern underlying it: a bipartisan push for permitting reform to speed up major environmental projects that now take years to win approval. “The substance here is he is really serious about trying to get permitting reform done," said Book, managing partner at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington research firm. “Permitting delays are an impediment in many sectors — including energy — and there are multiple billion-dollar investments waiting for permitting reform," Book said. A bipartisan plan championed by Senate Energy Committee Chairman Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the committee's top Republican, would speed up permitting for major energy and mineral projects, but its chances are uncertain in the final few weeks of the current Congress. Their plan would boost energy projects of all types, bringing down prices, creating domestic jobs and allowing the U.S. to continue as a global energy leader, Barrasso and Manchin say. Critics say the bill would open major expanses of public lands and waters for oil and gas drilling and gut executive and judicial review. “Checking off wish lists for oil, gas and mining companies is not permitting reform,” said Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona, the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. He called the bill “a dirty deal” that would exempt some oil and gas drilling projects from federal review and “let mining companies dump even more toxic waste on our public lands.”
Supreme Court declines to block Biden coal waste rule - The Supreme Court has declined to halt a Biden administration rule that seeks to prevent legacy toxic waste from now-shuttered coal plants from leaking out and contaminating nearby groundwater. In a brief order, the high court said it would deny an emergency request from the East Kentucky Power Cooperative to temporarily block the rule from taking effect while underlying litigation against it plays out. The Supreme Court did not offer an explanation for its rejection of the power cooperative’s petition. No dissents were noted. The court’s move does not necessarily mean that the Supreme Court’s justices believe the rule is permissible; it just means they are not ready to block it at this stage — before lower courts hear challenges to it. The rule in question applies to waste that’s also known as “coal ash” — which contains dangerous substances like mercury and arsenic. It requires coal plants that closed before October 19, 2015, to take steps to prevent coal ash from leaking out of “ponds” where it is stored. Asking the court to halt the rule, the East Kentucky co-op argued that it would suffer from “unrecoverable compliance costs” if the rule is not halted.
Big tech and utilities push FERC for power plant policy - Google and Amazon are assuring federal regulators they can pay for electricity generated at power plants adjacent to their power-hungry data centers and boost grid reliability at the same time.The technology giants and 35 others this week weighed into a discussion at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission about the rules for “co-location” — locating a large source of electricity consumption such as a data center next to a power plant. The near-universal message from powerful players in the technology and power industries: clarify the rules.FERC has largely addressed co-location on a case-by-case basis. But commissioners have indicated they intend to weigh in more directly to specific issues about the effect on the grid and electricity prices. Companies with a stake in what FERC ultimately says are exploring co-locating data centers with nuclear reactors or natural gas generation or utility-scale renewable energy projects. For tech companies like Google and Amazon, co-location offers a near-term means to power their energy-intensive artificial intelligence data centers. Big tech companies and advanced manufacturers are driving up projected demand, according to a report from Grid Strategies.
Companies owned by late utilities regulator plead guilty in Ohio bribery and corruption scandal | The Statehouse News Bureau -- Two companies created by the former head of the state’s utilities regulating panel to take bribes from FirstEnergy in the House Bill 6 case have made a deal with the state to close out proceedings against them. It's the latest development in what’s been called the largest corruption scandal in Ohio history. Summit County Prosecutor Elliot Kolkovich announced the deal, in which the companies pleaded guilty to:
- one count of engaging in a pattern of corrupt activity,
- two counts of telecommunications fraud
- two counts of aggravated theft
- six counts of money laundering
The first three counts are first-degree felonies. The telecommunications fraud and aggravated theft counts are second-degree felonies, and the money laundering counts are third-degree felonies.The Sustainability Funding Alliance of Ohio and the Industrial Energy Users of Ohio Administration Co. were created by Sam Randazzo, and worked as shell companies to accept $4.3 million in bribes. That happened just before Randazzo became chair of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio in April 2019, as House Bill 6, the billion-dollar nuclear power plant bailout, was being introduced and championed by Republican then-speaker Larry Householder. Randazzo helped write House Bill 6, and publicly advocated for it. FirstEnergy has admitted to bribing both Randazzo and Householder. The utility agreed to a $230 million penalty in July 2021. Householder is serving 20 years in federal prison. Randazzo, who resigned as PUCO chairafter federal agents searched his home in November 2020, died by suicidein April.The companies will pay around $2.25 million in fines.Former FirstEnergy executives Michael Dowling and Chuck Jones face trialon state charges in the spring. Jones is facing 10 counts and Dowling faces 12. Randazzo had been charged along with them, but the case against him was dismissed following his death.
Ohio O&G Commission Approves More Fracking Under State Lands -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) voted to award a contract to Gulfport Energy to drill and frack under (not on) about 30 acres of the Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County. Commissioners also voted to open an additional 884 acres of Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County for oil and gas development. During the meeting, commissioners had to work above the chaotic noise from anti-fossil fuel zealots who dressed up in Christmas attire and sang Christmas “carols” substituting anti-fracking lyrics. Yeah, antis made horses’ rear-ends of themselves, as they typically do.
Panel votes to open up almost 900 more acres of Ohio park land to energy companies for fracking - The state panel that grants permits to drill for oil and gas approved opening up more state park land for fracking. And as has been the case for more than a year, environmental activists tried to interrupt the meeting, this time with shouts and Christmas songs rewritten to include lyrics about fracking.It was almost impossible to hear the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission meeting over about two dozen protestors from Save Ohio Parks, who came in holiday costumes and sang several revised Christmas carols before the meeting opened. They’d hoped written input from around 600 Ohioans – 98% of it against drilling – would lead the panel to vote not to open up parcels of 371.42 acres and 513.11 acres in Salt Fork State Park for bids from energy companies.But the commission approved those requests. The identities of the entities requesting the opportunity to drill are shielded until permits are awarded.The Oil and Gas Land Management Commission also awarded drilling rights to Gulfport Appalachia of Oklahoma for 30 acres in the Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County. It’s unclear when drilling might start.Since last spring, state law has required the commission to move forward the leasing of state lands for drilling, including fracking. A sweeping bill passed in the lame duck session in 2022 sought to speed up the process of permitting drilling on state lands by changing the language on state approval from "may" to "shall." That bill started as a measure to limitsetting limits on buying poultry chicks and turned into what's known as a "Christmas tree bill" because of its many additions. It also declared natural gas "green energy," though it's mostly methane.
OH Senate Passes Bill Extending Time Drillers Can Frack State Land -- Marcellus Drilling News -In something of a surprise (for us), the Ohio State Senate passed House Bill (HB) 308 yesterday, a bill that extends the standard lease terms for drillers who want to drill under (not on) state-owned land from three years to five years. The bill also extends the total amount of time fracking operations can last from six years to eight years. Sensible increases in both cases. The Ohio House previously passed the bill. The Senate version is slightly different from the House version, so it heads back to the House to reconcile the two versions, and then it heads to the desk of RINO Gov. Mike DeWine for his signature. No telling whether he will sign it or not.
Ohio U. Scores $1.5 Million DOE Grant to Study Produced Water -- Marcellus Drilling News - - We’ve discussed shale wastewater, sometimes called brine or “produced water,” many times over the years. When drilling an oil or gas well deep in the earth, the hole releases naturally occurring water from the depths (far, far below the surface water table) for years after the well is drilled. The water coming out has a LOT of minerals, sometimes mildly radioactive, and is usually called either brine (meaning salty) or produced water. Traditionally, there are two ways to handle all of that water coming out of the ground: (1) recycle it and reuse it for more oil and gas drilling, or (2) pump it back down into the ground from whence it came via an injection well. Ohio University (in Athens, OH) has just won a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to study how produced water can be cleaned up and used outsidethe oil and gas sector.
Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Grows Stock Position in Kinder Morgan, Inc ... Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio lifted its holdings in Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI - Free Report) by 17.3% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 867,061 shares of the pipeline company's stock after buying an additional 127,743 shares during the period. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio's holdings in Kinder Morgan were worth $19,153,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period. Several other hedge funds have also recently made changes to their positions in the business. Northwest Investment Counselors LLC bought a new stake in shares of Kinder Morgan in the 3rd quarter worth about $28,000. Planning Capital Management Corp lifted its stake in Kinder Morgan by 143.6% in the third quarter. Planning Capital Management Corp now owns 1,352 shares of the pipeline company's stock worth $30,000 after purchasing an additional 797 shares during the last quarter. HM Payson & Co. lifted its stake in Kinder Morgan by 401.8% in the third quarter. HM Payson & Co. now owns 1,430 shares of the pipeline company's stock worth $32,000 after purchasing an additional 1,145 shares during the last quarter. Activest Wealth Management grew its stake in shares of Kinder Morgan by 63.0% during the third quarter. Activest Wealth Management now owns 1,478 shares of the pipeline company's stock valued at $33,000 after buying an additional 571 shares during the last quarter. Finally, HWG Holdings LP purchased a new stake in shares of Kinder Morgan in the second quarter worth approximately $30,000. 62.52% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors. In other news, Director Amy W. Chronis acquired 2,241 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, November 5th. The shares were acquired at an average cost of $24.89 per share, with a total value of $55,778.49. Following the completion of the acquisition, the director now owns 23,995 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $597,235.55. This trade represents a 10.30 % increase in their ownership of the stock. The acquisition was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Also, Director C Park Shaper sold 690,142 shares of the company's stock in a transaction on Monday, October 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $24.75, for a total transaction of $17,081,014.50. Following the completion of the sale, the director now directly owns 6,809,858 shares in the company, valued at approximately $168,543,985.50. The trade was a 9.20 % decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders have sold a total of 727,263 shares of company stock worth $18,075,634 in the last ninety days. 12.81% of the stock is owned by insiders.
Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Decreases Stock Position in The Williams Companies - Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio trimmed its position in The Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE:WMB - Free Report) by 4.7% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 442,112 shares of the pipeline company's stock after selling 22,023 shares during the quarter. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio's holdings in Williams Companies were worth $20,182,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. A number of equities analysts recently issued reports on WMB shares. The Goldman Sachs Group increased their price target on shares of Williams Companies from $45.00 to $55.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Tuesday, November 26th. CIBC increased their target price on Williams Companies from $45.00 to $54.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research report on Tuesday, October 22nd. UBS Group raised their target price on Williams Companies from $55.00 to $70.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, November 15th. Barclays upped their price target on Williams Companies from $42.00 to $46.00 and gave the stock an "equal weight" rating in a research note on Wednesday, October 2nd. Finally, Citigroup raised their price objective on Williams Companies from $45.00 to $52.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 3rd. One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, eight have given a hold rating and nine have assigned a buy rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $52.07.
Utica shale well in Forest County to undergo assessment - A Utica shale well in Forest County will undergo a 60-day assessment period after crews finished fracking the Tionesta Township well in late September. Rob Boulware, a spokesman for Seneca Resources, said the company will spend 60 days assessing a horizontal Utica shale well that was fracked in September in a heavily forested area about one and a half miles off of Hemlock Road in Tionesta Township.
OH Drops 1, PA Adds 1 Rig; National Rig Count Soars, Adds 7 @ 589 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Baker Hughes national rig count dramatically increased last week, adding seven rigs for a national count of 589. Note that the national count continues to be rangebound between 581 and 589 since June (except for Sep. 13, when it hit 590 for a single week). Will we break out of the rut and go higher? Stay tuned. Meanwhile, the Ohio Utica lost one rig last week, but the Pennsylvania Marcellus picked it up, keeping the combined M-U count at 35
28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 2 – 8 For the week of Dec 2 – 8, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica bounced back nicely. There were 28 new permits issued last week, more than doubling the 12 issued the week before (and matching the 28 issued three weeks ago). The Keystone State (PA) issued 18 new permits, with eight going to EQT spread across three counties: Jefferson, Lycoming, and Washington. Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) received four permits, all of them in northeastern PA’s Wyoming County. CNX Resource scooped up two permits, both in Westmoreland County. The final four permits were singles issued to Blackhill Energy (Bradford County), XPR Resources (Centre County), Inflection Energy (Lycoming County), and Olympus Energy (Allegheny County). ALLEGHENY COUNTY | ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BLACKHILL ENERGY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CENTRE COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CNX RESOURCES | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | HARRISON COUNTY | INFLECTION ENERGY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (PA) | LYCOMING COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY | WYOMING COUNTY (PA) | XPR RESOURCES
SRBC Approves 1 New, 3 Renewed Water Requests for Shale Drillers - Marcellus Drilling News - - The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its completely dysfunctional and irresponsible cousin, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals for responsible and safe shale drilling. Yesterday, the SRBC board approved 14 new (or renewed) water withdrawal requests within the basin, four for water used in drilling and fracking shale wells in Pennsylvania. Coterra Energy received two water request approvals, and Expand Energy (Chesapeake Energy & Southwestern Energy) received the other two.
PA+WV+OH Produced Nearly One-Third of All U.S. NatGas in 2023 -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported five states produced more than 70% of the record 113.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023. Two of the five were in the Marcellus/Utica: Pennsylvania (18% of the country’s gas) and West Virginia (8% of the country’s gas). We did some digging and found that when adding the production from PA, WV, and OH, the three together represented 31.5% of all the natural gas produced in the U.S. in 2023. It is an astonishing fact!
Details on Diversified Deal to Plug More Wells in WV, OH, PA - One month ago, we brought you the news that Diversified Energy and EQT Corporation had settled a class action lawsuit originally brought by several West Virginia landowners (see EQT, Diversified Settle WV Class Action Lawsuit re Old Wells). There is the money aspect of the lawsuit, a payout of up to $6.5 million (subject to attorneys grabbing one-third of that). But then there is (in our opinion) the more important aspect of the settlement that requires Diversified to dramatically increase the number of wells it plugs over the next 10 years
Northern Oil and Gas Investing $160M in Marcellus/Utica in 2025 - Marcellus Drilling News -Yesterday, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) announced it had entered a Joint Development Program with an unnamed Marcellus/Utica driller to invest $160 million in 2025 for new well drilling. In return, NOG will receive a 15% working interest (i.e., ownership) in the assets. NOG did not identify the driller but called it “one of Appalachia’s most capital efficient operators.”
Methane Emissions in Marcellus/Utica Down 52% from 2019 to 2023 -Marcellus Drilling News - The environmental left is hellbent on regulating fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas, out of existence. One of their favorite (false) memes is to claim methane is a bazillion times more "potent" in causing global warming than other things, like carbon dioxide. The false narrative continues that shale drilling is causing a stratospheric increase in fugitive methane leaks into Mom Earth's atmosphere. Except....it isn't true. According to data from the Environmental Protection Agency, methane emissions from the country’s top oil and gas-producing basins have fallen 44 percent since 2011. Methane emissions right here in the Marcellus/Utica have fallen 52% from 2019 to 2023!
Woodside Taps Bechtel to Build $1.3B Revamped Louisiana LNG Project - Woodside Energy Group Ltd. has tapped Bechtel Energy Group to continue work on the Driftwood LNG project, now dubbed Louisiana LNG, under a new engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract. Bechtel Corp. would lead construction and development of the three train, 16.5 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity project in Hackberry, LA under the lump sum turnkey agreement. The EPC firm has been working on the project site under a limited notice to proceed from Tellurian Inc., which was acquired by Woodside earlier in the year. CEO Meg O’Neill said securing Bechtel and locking in pricing and a construction schedule for the project builds on the momentum the Australian company has achieved since opening up equity talks with potential partners.
Is First Plaquemines Cargo Soon? Feed Gas, Vessels Amass — Signs that the first cargo at Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana are mounting as Venture Global LNG Inc. continues to receive FERC orders allowing it to commission equipment. Feed gas flows to Plaquemines reached 0.1 Bcf Wednesday, about 5% of operational pipeline capacity to the terminal, according to NGI calculations. The Venture Global-owned vessel Venture Bayou was also anchored in the Mississippi River near the facility that is southeast of New Orleans, according to Kpler data. Ship data also indicated that a QatarEnergy-controlled vessel could arrive at Plaquemines as soon as Jan. 5, before carrying a cargo to an Indian import terminal, according to Kpler.
Plaquemines LNG Coming Online, Will Hose Customers for 2 Years -- Marcellus Drilling News - According to a Reuters report, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG export facility (Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana) could start to liquefy natural gas as early as today. It will mark the first new U.S. LNG export plant to come online in two years. The 20 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) export plant was set to draw over 100 million cubic feet (MMcf/d) of natural gas for the first time yesterday. When fully online, it will use 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas. We suspect some (much?) of the gas comes from the Marcellus/Utica as the plant has an interconnection with the Texas Eastern Transmission Company (TETCO) pipeline—a pipeline that flows M-U gas southwest. However, we’re not elated with the news of Plaquemines’ startup.
More Pipelines, Storage Capacity Desperately Needed to Support Next LNG Wave, Execs Say - U.S. LNG export growth is increasingly threatened by the inability to build infrastructure for a backlog of projects and additional, growing natural gas demand, executives said at an industry conference in Washington, DC. Chart showing U.S. LNG export projects that are under construction and the expected natural gas feed capacity. Despite other regulatory hurdles in recent years, such as the Biden administration’s pause on authorizing new export projects, Golden Pass LNG’s Chief Commercial Officer Jeff Hammad said permitting and pipeline construction has emerged as a leading obstacle to domestic LNG development. Most of the nation’s existing export capacity is crowded along the Gulf Coast, while roughly two dozen other projects have been proposed for the region. That has made it necessary to “stretch out” and tap into pipeline capacity farther outside the area, Hammad said during remarks at the North American Gas Forum.
Expanding U.S. LNG Exports to Drive Natural Gas Price Relief, Asian Decarbonation, Wood Mackenzie Says -- Delays in global LNG projects, especially in the United States, threaten to push natural gas prices higher for longer, potentially closing the door for emerging Asian economies to quickly decarbonize, according to Wood Mackenzie researchers. Graph showing global LNG supply/demand balance. Asia is forecast to drive a surge in LNG demand through the middle of the century, with Asian countries increasing consumption to 510 million tons/year (Mt/y) in 2050 from 270 Mt/y in 2024, researchers wrote in a new report commissioned by the Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association (ANGEA). However, that demand largely depends on a massive increase in global supply that is expected to be propelled by projects in the United States, which have yet to reach a final investment decision (FID).
LNG Export Permitting Sidelined By Federal Court Spats, DOE Says - As pressure mounts on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to open the flood gates for new worldwide LNG export permits, the agency blamed fallout from federal court decisions for delaying its considerations of two large-scale LNG export projects. Graph showing commercially advanced North American LNG export projects impacted by the Biden administration's pause on LNG exports. DOE staff released a statement Tuesday seeking to clarify questions over whether the Biden administration is continuing to process non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permit applications despite its ongoing study into the impacts of U.S. natural gas exports on the climate and domestic market. In September, the agency complied with a federal court order to restart NFTA permit considerations by granting a five-year license to New Fortress Energy Inc.’s Fast LNG facility in Mexico. However, DOE staff wrote in a statement, a review of two major Louisiana export projects that have been pending NFTA consideration for years cannot be completed at this time because of actions from FERC.
Trump Administration Builds Options for Unleashing U.S. LNG, but Obstacles Could Remain, Experts Say - The incoming administration could be planning to use a novel set of tools to grant a wave of LNG export permits, according to energy experts, but the pending U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) study could still complicate the process. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) chart showing global LNG futures settle prices through 2027. As inauguration day approaches, President-elect Trump and his transition team have indicated they plan to target the Biden administration’s pause on new non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permits that have kept developers and long-term customers on edge since January. On Tuesday, Trump also made an overture on Truth Social, his social media network, to the business community, promising to streamline “all environmental approvals” for “any person or company investing [$1 billion]” or more in the United States.
Five states drove record U.S. natural gas production in 2023 - U.S. Energy Information ...Five states produced more than 70% of the record 113.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023. Texas accounted for 28% of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023, according to our Natural Gas Monthly, followed by Pennsylvania (18%), Louisiana (10%), West Virginia (8%), and New Mexico (8%). Even though production slowed in 2024, output from these five states continued to make up most—73%—of marketed U.S. natural gas this year.In 2023, marketed natural gas production in Texas, which includes offshore output from fields in state waters, totaled 31.6 Bcf/d, a 7% increase from 2022. The Permian and Haynesville plays, which combined account for nearly 40% of U.S. dry natural gas production fromshale gas plays, are in Texas.The Permian region also extends into New Mexico, where production averaged 8.7 Bcf/d in 2023, an increase of 18% compared with 2022. Because most Permian production of natural gas is associated natural gas from oil wells, producers respond to changes in the crude oil price rather than the natural gas price when planning their exploration and production activities. Adjusted for inflation, the annual West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price averaged $102 per barrel (b) in 2022—the highest price since 2014—before moderating to $80/b in 2023. As a result, marketed natural gas production in both Texas and New Mexico established new records in 2023.Marketed natural gas production in Louisiana, which includes offshore output from state waters, averaged 11.8 Bcf/d in 2023, an increase of 6% from 2022 and the most natural gas produced in Louisiana since 1996, despite low natural gas prices. Production in Louisiana mostly comes from the Haynesville region, located in both Louisiana and Texas. The United States became the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in 2023, and producers in the Haynesville play continued to supply much of the natural gas used by Gulf Coast LNG export facilities.In 2023, natural gas production in Pennsylvania matched the 2021 record of 20.9 Bcf/d, a 1% increase over 2022, and West Virginia production reached a record 8.9 Bcf/d, an increase of 11%. Natural gas production from both states comes from the Appalachian Basin, which contains the Marcellus and Utica shale gas plays, and accounted for 32% of U.S. marketed natural gas production. Growth in U.S. marketed natural gas production has slowed in 2024, due mainly to reduced output from shale and tight formations. From January through August 2024, U.S. production of marketed natural gas averaged 113.0 Bcf/d, a 1% increase compared with the same period in 2023. The Permian region drove the increase in 2024, supported by WTI crude oil prices that averaged $80/b. Production in Texas increased 5% (1.5 Bcf/d), and output in New Mexico increased 12% (1.0 Bcf/d). Less production in Louisiana, where output decreased 15% (1.8 Bcf/d), and Pennsylvania, where output decreased 2% (0.5 Bcf/d), offset growth in the Permian region. Producers in the Haynesville and Appalachia regions curtailed production in 2024 when faced with record-low Henry Hub prices, which averaged $2.09 per million British thermal units through August 2024, and flat growth in demand from LNG export facilities.
Exxon Plans Large Nat Gas Plants To Supply Electricity To Data Centers - It isn't just nuclear projects getting in on the "selling power to data centers" trend - now oil supermajor Exxon is joining the trend. In fact, Exxon is planning a large natural gas-powered plant to supply electricity directly to data centers, incorporating technology to capture over 90% of its carbon emissions, according to the New York Times. This would be Exxon’s first power plant not dedicated to its own operations. Carbon capture systems remain rare and costly, despite federal subsidies, limiting their broader adoption. CEO Darren Woods said this week: “There are very few opportunities in the short term to power those data centers and do it in a way that at the same time minimizes, if not completely eliminates, the emissions." Exxon exec Dan Ammann added: “We’re being driven by the market demand here. It’s low carbon, it’s available on an accelerated timeline and it avoids all the grid interconnection challenges.” Tech giants are increasingly willing to pay extra for reliable clean energy, including nuclear power. Here are Zero Hedge we spent most of 2024 documenting numerous tech giants like Google, Meta and Microsoft all inking deals with nuclear power generators to secure data center power in the future. The New York Times adds that Exxon, having secured land and engaged potential customers, plans to launch its gas-powered plant within five years—faster than building new nuclear reactors. Uniquely, the plant would operate off-grid, avoiding lengthy grid connection delays. This move highlights how the growth of data centers and AI is transforming the energy sector, pushing Exxon into a business it once avoided. Chevron could be next, too. Its CEO Mike Wirth predicts off-grid power projects will become more common, and Exxon is exploring similar ventures, aiming to launch a gas-powered plant with carbon capture technology. Exxon plans to spend $30 billion over six years on emission reduction and alternative energy while expanding oil and gas production. The company sees growing electricity demand from data centers as an opportunity to enter the power business, leveraging its expertise in carbon management and pipeline networks.
Kinder Morgan Eyes Growth From Natural Gas Infrastructure, Energy Projects - Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) plans to invest $2.3 billion in expansion projects and joint ventures in 2025, as the pipeline giant continues to capitalize on strong natural gas demand across North America. Graph showing Kinder Morgan Inc.'s expected natural gas demand growth through 2030. “We expect to continue benefiting from strong natural gas market fundamentals driving growth on our existing natural gas transportation and storage assets, as well as creating expansion opportunities,” President Tom Martin said in an investor update Monday (Dec. 9). The Houston-based midstreamer, which transports about 40% of U.S. natural gas production, recently sanctioned several major projects. These include a $455 million expansion of the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline from the Permian Basin and a $3 billion South System 4 Expansion of its Southern Natural Gas Co. LLC system in the Southeast.
Henry Hub NatGas Spot Price Reached All-Time Lows in November -- Marcellus Drilling News - Earlier this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. As part of our coverage, we highlighted the news that the EIA is predicting natural gas prices this winter and for all of 2025 will be roughly 40% higher than the Henry Hub price for gas in November (see Dec. STEO Predicts 40% Higher NatGas Price for Winter 2024/25). Here is “the rest of the story.” Gas prices will be higher now and into 2025 because the Henry Hub spot price of natural gas in November hit record all-time lows (since 1997). No wonder the price will “soar” by 40% compared with November—it’s not a very high bar to exceed. In fact, the ten lowest Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas (since 1997) all happened in 2024, with four of those low prices happening in November.
Henry Hub Spot Prices to Average $3 Through Winter as Cold Weather, LNG Drive Consumption, EIA Says - Henry Hub spot natural gas prices fell for the second consecutive month in November, but should climb in 2025 on the back of winter cold and expanding domestic export capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Graph denoting Natural Gas Intelligence’s (NGI) the historical Henry Hub bidweek natural gas price, forward curve, annual average and residential natural gas price, annual average and forecast price using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. In the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for December, researchers noted that spot gas prices in November averaged $2.00/MMBtu, down from $2.20 in October. The decline in prices was attributed to mild autumn weather. In addition, natural gas inventories were 6% above the five-year average to start the winter heating season.
US natural gas up more than 3% to 1-week high as weather turns colder (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose over 3% to more than a one-week high on Monday, helped by a shift in short-term forecasts to cooler weather that would lead to increased gas demand for heating. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 10.6 cents up, or 3.4%, to $3.182 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 02:55 p.m. EST (1955 GMT). "Weather outlook for later in the month shifted significantly colder for the northeastern U.S., a key region for natural gas demands. That shift added to potential withdrawal projections and is helping support a push to the higher end of the range near $3.30," The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 30 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Nov. 29. Early estimates for the week ending Dec. 6 ranged from withdrawals of 49 bcf to 187 bcf, with an average decrease of 138 bcf. That compares with a withdrawal of 72 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average decrease of 71 bcf. "Much of this strength appears to represent another expected Arctic blast at about the middle of this week that will be prompting a larger-than-normal storage withdrawal next week that is apt to follow a sizable reduction in the surplus per this week's data," "However, we are not expecting much upside follow-through beyond today's high because of another warm-up in the weather forecasts next week and possibly into the holiday period ... some production slippage and steady export activity may be adding to today's gains but don't appear sufficient to spur additional strength unless accompanied by disrupted output due to freeze-offs." LSEG estimated 355 heating degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the forecast of 368 HDDs on Friday. It forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 130.5 bcfd this week to 126.7 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 14.2 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 102.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were down on Monday morning on a warmer weather outlook and with the market shrugging off the geopolitical developments in Syria.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 7% to Two-Week High on Colder Weather, Rising LNG Exports (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% on Wednesday to a two-week high on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand and an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 21.5 cents, or 6.8%, to settle at $3.378 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest since Nov. 29. That was the highest daily percentage increase since prices rose 7.7% on Nov. 25. The front-month price jump boosted the premium of futures for January over February
Nat-Gas Prices Push Higher on a Bullish Weekly Storage Report January Nymex natural gas (NGF25) on Thursday closed higher by +0.077 (+2.28%)Jan nat-gas prices on Thursday rallied for a second session and posted a 2-1/2 week high. A larger-than-expected draw in weekly nat-gas supplies Thursday propelled prices higher after the EIA reported nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 6 fell -190 bcf, a bigger draw than expectations of -168 bcf. Also, the outlook for colder US temperatures to boost heating demand for nat-gas is boosting prices after the Commodity Weather Group said forecasts shifted colder for the eastern half of the US for December 17-21.Lower-48 state dry gas production Thursday was 104.9 bcf/day (-0.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Thursday was 112.5 bcf/day (+11% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Thursday were 13.6 bcf/day (-4.4% w/w), according to BNEF.An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended December 7 rose +10.87% y/y to 83,412 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending December 7 rose +1.96% y/y to 4,173,295 GWh.Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 6 fell -190 bcf versus expectations of -168 bcf and a much larger draw than the 5-year average draw for this time of year of -71 bcf. As of December 6, nat-gas inventories were up +2.3% y/y and were +4.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 81% full as of December 10, below the 5-year seasonal average of 83% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending December 6 rose +2 rigs to 102 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/2 year low from September 6 of 94 rigs. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987)
US natural prices drop 5% from 13-month high on rising output, mild weather forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Friday from the 13-month high reached in the prior session on forecasts for mostly mild weather through late December and rising supplies as producers keep pulling more gas out of the ground. The price decline happened even as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach an 11-month high, as Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines plant, which is under construction in Louisiana, likely started pulling in enough fuel to produce first LNG. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.5 cents, or 5.1%, to settle at $3.280 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest level since November 2023. For the week, the front-month was up about 7% after falling about 9% last week. Despite this week's price increase, some analysts have said that winter, and the high prices it usually brings, could be over before the season officially starts now that the heavily traded March-April "widow maker" spread is trading in unusual contango. That means the April contract is priced higher than the March contract. It is also possible that gas prices hit their 2024 peak in November when they reached an intraday high of $3.56 per mmBtu. Over the past five years, prices hit their yearly highs in January 2023, August 2022, October 2021 and 2020, and January 2019. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 102.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 28, except for a few colder-than-normal days from Dec. 21-23. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 129.4 bcfd this week to 125.0 bcfd next week before rising to 136.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. has risen to an average of 14.1 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. LNG feedgas on Thursday was reduced when a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas tripped off line due to an issue with the compressor system, according to a company filing with state environmental regulators. The Freeport train has likely returned to service since flows to the plant were on track to reach a one-month high of 2.3 bcfd on Friday, according to LSEG data.
Could rising natural gas prices derail Trump’s energy agenda? - President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to cut energy costs for average Americans is already hitting a major hurdle — not from the renewables he blasted on the campaign trail but from the fossil fuels he pledged to “drill, baby, drill.” New forecasts show the price of natural gas is set to jump in the coming years despite record-high U.S. production. The projections are driven by dramatic increases in demand and too few pipelines to transport the product.Those market dynamics could cause the costs of heating U.S. homes and manufacturing goods to spike in the coming years.“We expect prices to rise substantially,” said Paul Cicio, president of the trade association Industrial Energy Consumers of America. “It’s inflationary on all the products we produce, from consumer goods to industrial goods and national defense goods.”Election observers say inflation was a major reason Trump won at the polls in early November. While stumping for a second term, Trump and his Republican allies slammed Democrats for rising prices, pointing to a rapid increase in the price of electricity under President Joe Biden.Trump vowed to cut U.S. energy bills by 50 percent in just 12 months. Some experts say that’s all but impossible.While wind and solar prices are decreasing annually, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the price of natural gas has ticked up since the election to above $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Gas prices had fallen to less than a $1.50 per MMBtu earlier in 2024, according to EIA, the data-crunching branch of the Department of Energy. The data shows gas consumption outstripping supply, a key market dynamic that often leads to higher prices.On Tuesday, EIA said it expects the average U.S. benchmark spot gas price to rise from a little above $2 per MMBtu in November to about $3 per MMBtu for the rest of the winter heating season. EIA has predicted that the price of natural gas in the U.S. will average $3 for all of 2025, which would be a roughly 36 percent increase from 2024’s level.New forecasts from the law firm Haynes Boone show U.S. gas prices reaching about $3.20 per MMBtu in 2026, at which point they plateau for the rest of the decade, even as crude oil prices fall from current levels. That forecast is a slightly lower price than the firm projected in the spring.A spike would fly in the face of Trump’s pledge. And yet, energy experts say the forecasts are not surprising.“The industry has shown a remarkable ability to produce more gas on demand. How far that can go? We don’t know,” said Paul Bledsoe, a lecturer at American University’s Center for Environmental Policy and a Clinton-era White House veteran. “It looks like we’re about to enter of period of increased export and domestic demand.”Demand for natural gas is likely to balloon under Trump, based in large part on liquefied natural gas exports and artificial intelligence data centers that demand a lot of energy. Natural gas is already the most popular way to power homes and businesses in the U.S.That demand creates faces a “real challenge for the industry to keep prices low,” Bledsoe said.
Oil Spill in Boston River Threatens Wildlife – Newsweek – An oil spill in a Boston river on Sunday has threatened nearby wildlife as rescue efforts to save dozens of geese and ducks coated in hazardous petroleum continued on Monday. The oil spill, first reported on Sunday at the Muddy River on the border of Boston and the town of Brookline, has mobilized police, firefighters and environmental agencies to contain the damage and care for affected wildlife. According to police, responders found there was some kind of leak into the waterway that impacted wildlife. The leak, traced to a storm drain under a nearby condominium complex, released less than 100 gallons of oil into the river, according to Danielle Burney, spokesperson for the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. While officials are investigating the exact source of the spill, it is being contained and managed, Burney added. Efforts to rescue the birds, predominantly Canada geese and mallards, are being spearheaded by the New England Wildlife Center. "The New England Wildlife Center is on-site to collect affected waterfowl for treatment and rehabilitation at their facility. They will continue to monitor the area to ensure the safety and well-being of the local wildlife," Burney said to The Associated Press. According to Katrina Bergman, the New England Wildlife Center's president, it could take up to a month for the birds to be treated and released back into the wild, adding that so far, 20 birds have been rescued, but dozens more are expected to require treatment. The Muddy River, a well-known spot for walkers and joggers near Fenway Park, has become an emergency response zone as rescue teams are carefully collecting affected birds, ensuring minimal stress to prevent further harm. "We don't want to cause them to do any extra activity, especially if they have oil in the mouth and nose, that could do more damage," Zak Mertz, the center's CEO, told The Associated Press. While the community has expressed concern and a desire to assist, authorities emphasized the importance of trained personnel handling the situation. In addition, Brookline police issued a statement urging residents to let experts with the proper equipment manage the crisis. "We know that members of the community are concerned for the well being of the impacted wildlife and were interested in what they could do to help. On scene for something like this it's important that we only use people with proper PPE and training," Brookline police said in a statement. Meanwhile, as rescuers remain focused on nursing the Muddy River's wildlife back to health, officials are continuing their investigation into the cause of the spill.
Texas Tops Up Natural Gas Salt Storage to Record Ahead of Winter Risks, LNG Ramp -Underground supplies of natural gas in Texas salt storage facilities have climbed to new records as traders position for potential winter volatility and the startup of two new LNG export projects. Bar chart depicting monthly Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) Houston Ship Channel differential to Waha natural gas forward prices. Texas salt storage levels reached 152 Bcf in October then rose to 155 Bcf in mid-November, Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) data showed. That preliminary reading for Nov. 15 was an all-time record and followed the state’s highest October salt injection in a decade, according to Criterion Research Inc.’s James Bevan, vice president of research. “Keep it filling up,” Bevan said on online energy platform Enelyst after a 9 Bcf build in salts drove a net South Central injection in the weekly government storage report last week. Related Tags
ExxonMobil’s LNG Trade, in Parallel With Permian and Guyana Liquids, Set to Lead Growth to 2030 - Liquids and LNG will be the backbone for ExxonMobil’s business until at least 2030, as the supermajor looks to capitalize on innovation in a world thirsty for energy, the executive team said Wednesday. Natural Gas Intelligence's top 30 list of publicly traded natural gas producers in the third quarter of 2024. “Nobody has our opportunities – or solutions,” CEO Darren Woods told analysts as he kicked off a conference to update the corporate and upstream strategy. ExxonMobil underwent a reset in early 2022 after a decision to pull out of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. The company put in motion a strategy to focus on global LNG, growth in the Permian Basin and Guyana’s offshore, as well as low-carbon opportunities.
Energy Transfer Greenlights 1.5 Bcf/d Permian-to-Dallas Natural Gas Pipeline -Energy Transfer LP has sanctioned a 1.5 Bcf/d intrastate natural gas pipeline out of the Permian Basin. (a map of the proposed Warrior natural gas pipeline) Formerly known as the Warrior Pipeline, the project has been renamed the Hugh Brinson Pipeline, management said Friday afternoon, in honor of CEO Kelcy Warren’s father. Construction of the conduit, which is backed by long-term, fee-based commitments, is planned to occur in two phases.
Energy Transfer to build nearly $3 billion new gas pipeline in the Permian Basin - - Energy Transfer LP, the company that acquired Oklahoma City-based Enable Midstream in a $7.2 billion deal three years ago is expanding its operations in a nearly $3 billion deal. The Dallas based firm announced it reached a positive final investment decision for the construction of an intrastate natural gas pipeline connecting Permian Basin production to premier markets and trading hubs. The new large-diameter pipeline, previously called the Warrior Pipeline, is being renamed in honor of Hugh Brinson and will now be known as the Hugh Brinson Pipeline. The pipeline will provide much needed transportation capacity out of the Permian Basin to serve growing natural gas demand. The Hugh Brinson Pipeline is expected to be constructed in two phases with the first phase including the construction of approximately 400 miles of 42-inch pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). It will extend from Waha to Maypearl, Texas located south of the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex, where it will then connect to Energy Transfer’s vast pipeline and storage infrastructure. Phase I is expected to be in service by the end of 2026. As part of Phase I, Energy Transfer will also construct the Midland Lateral, which is expected to be a 42-mile, 36-inch lateral to connect Energy Transfer and third-party processing plants in Martin and Midland Counties to the Hugh Brinson Pipeline. Phase II of the project would include the addition of compression to increase the capacity of the new pipeline to approximately 2.2 Bcf/d. Depending on shipper demand, Phase II could be constructed concurrently with Phase I. Combined costs of Phase I and Phase II are expected to be approximately $2.7 billion. The project is backed by long-term, fee-based commitments with strong investment grade counterparties. The Hugh Brinson Pipeline will connect shippers to Energy Transfer’s existing intrastate natural gas pipeline network and other downstream pipelines. In addition, it will provide shippers with the optionality to access prolific markets and trading hubs throughout Texas and beyond, including Carthage and Katy. This project is also expected to further establish Energy Transfer as the premier option to support power plant and data center growth in the state of Texas.
Texas governor: Trump told me he would slash EPA regs - — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and top Trump donor Kelcy Warren said Thursday they expect the incoming administration to sharply reduce oil and gas regulations and encourage more drilling to lower energy prices. At the Dallas Citizen Council’s annual meeting Thursday, Abbott, a Republican, said President-elect Donald Trump called him shortly after the election to talk about his plans for the energy sector. During the call, Abbott recalled Trump saying he was going to “get rid of the EPA regulations that have tied the hands of the energy sector in the state of Texas.”“He genuinely and forcefully embraces supporting, pushing and advancing more drilling,” Abbott said during a lunch panel at the meeting. “It’s going to be game on on Jan. 20.” The oil and gas industry as well as lawmakers in Republican states have been compiling wish lists of Biden-era regulations they hope Trump will throw out. It’s unclear how quickly, and how many, rules the new administration will be able to roll back, but both Warren, the executive chair of gas and pipeline giant Energy Transfer, and Abbott said they expect Trump to start making changes on his first day in office.
Washington state voters banned gas bans. Now they’re in court. - Climate advocates are challenging a voter-approved measure that blocks Washington state from banning natural gas in buildings.A coalition of health and environmental groups, along with the city of Seattle and King County, filed a lawsuitthis week arguing that Initiative 2066 violates the state’s Constitution. The ballot initiative effectively bans gas bans by state and local governments.The suit filed in King County Superior Court against the state asserts that voters were misled about the “true nature” and sweeping effect of the initiative, which narrowly passed last month. It also argues that the measure violated a requirement that proposed initiatives address only a single subject and that it failed to spell out each state law that it would alter.“Let’s be clear: this Initiative is unconstitutional and will affect regulations that protect our air, protect public health, ensure building safety, and respond to the realities of climate change,” said Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell.
Biden administration moves ahead with Alaska wildlife refuge oil lease sale - The Biden administration is moving ahead with the smallest possible oil and gas lease sale controversially mandated to take place in a wildlife refuge.The Bureau of Land Management is required to auction off opportunities to drill in the Alaska wildlife refuge by the end of this year under 2017’s Tax Cuts and Job Act.Many Democrats have opposed drilling for oil there, and the Biden administration now says it will auction off only the minimum 400,000 acres required under the law. The rights to drill in the refuge will be auctioned off on Jan. 9 — just 11 days before President-elect Trump takes office. The lease sale will be the second one required by the law. The Trump administration carried out the first in 2021, though amid significant activist pushback against drilling in the refuge, there was very little interest in actually drilling there the first time that rights to drill were offered. The few drilling leases that were issued at the time were later suspended by the Biden administration, which cited “multiple legal deficiencies.” In its new decision the Biden administration also said it is limiting the sale to the places with the highest potential for oil and gas discovery.It additionally does not offer up drilling in polar bear denning and migratory bird nesting areas — and seeks to protect other species such as caribou.The Arctic refuge is home to grizzly bears, polar bears, gray wolves, caribou and more than 200 species of birds and contains land considered sacred by the Gwich’in people.
Crude oil recovered after train collision in Sancti Spíritus - Cuba-Petroleum Union (CUPET) announced this Sunday that its teams are working intensively to recover the oil spilled following the train accident that occurred in the Guayos area, in the province of Sancti Spíritus. In a brief message on the social network Facebook, the company announced that workers from the Sergio Soto Refinery are working to recover part of the approximately 60,000 liters of Cuban crude stored in one of the cars of the two freight trains that had an accident on Saturday morning. According to the digital page of the weekly Escambray, Carlos Enríquez Díaz Bernal, the deputy director of the aforementioned refinery located in Cabaiguán, specified that the extraction is intended for the tank trucks of the industry. Meanwhile, the causes of the incident are being investigated, which involved a vehicle transporting resources from the Mariel Special Development Zone to Camagüey and another vehicle coming from the deposits in the Avila region for further fuel processing. Despite the severe collision and significant economic losses, no human casualties were reported, according to a social media post by Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila, the island's Minister of Transportation. In 2024, train accidents in Cuba have become a recurring problem, reflecting the deterioration of infrastructure and the lack of safety at railway crossings.
Russia Could Lose Its Largest European LNG Import Loophole in Latest Natural Gas Crackdown -- French LNG terminal operator Elengy, the top European importer of Russian gas, has agreed to ban Russian transhipments of the super-chilled fuel through its infrastructure starting next spring. Bar graph showing Europe's natural gas import source over four years. Elengy disclosed it is planning to fully comply with the 14th package of European Union (EU) sanctions on Russia, including participation in a mandatory reporting program to track deliveries of LNG volumes. Despite discussions of an EU-wide ban of Russian LNG, France has received a record volume of Russian LNG this year. Europe has imported 16.37 million tons (Mt) of Russian LNG since the beginning of the year, including 5.9 Mt via French terminals, according to Kpler data.
EU’s new energy chief vows to end Russian fuel ties for good - Dan Jørgensen is making it his “main priority” to craft a plan that will finally sever all European Union energy links with Russia.In his first interview since taking office as the EU’s new energy chief, Jørgensen warned that the EU is faltering in its multiyear campaign to shun Russian fuel and needed a plan to get things back on track.He pointed to the EU’s rising purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas as a particular concern — and a reversal of the bloc’s downward trajectory. Additionally, five EU countries still rely on Russia for nuclear fuel.“To have been able to bring down our dependency to such an extent that we have is actually quite an accomplishment,” Jørgensen said, speaking from his largely as-yet-unfurnished office in the European Commission’s Berlaymont headquarters.
Ukraine's Gas Pipeline Operator TSO Modernizes with Help from USAID | Pipeline Technology Journal -- The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) is making strides in modernizing its pipeline operations with the development and testing of a new mobile application for equipment maintenance and repair (EMR). This innovative tool, developed with the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through its Energy Security Project (ESP), aims to streamline asset management processes and enhance operational efficiency. By automating task planning and providing real-time control over work performance, the EMR application empowers maintenance and repair teams to optimize their efforts. The app offers a user-friendly interface that allows technicians to view assigned tasks, plan efficient routes to facilities, and report on their progress, including material usage, time spent, and visual documentation. This digital solution is expected to yield significant benefits for GTSOU by reducing the frequency of emergency shutdowns and improving the quality of equipment repairs. The app will make gas transportation more reliable and efficient. Additionally, it will optimize the reporting on the technical condition of facilities, enabling data-driven decision-making. The implementation of the mobile EMR application is part of a broader USAID-supported initiative to modernize GTSOU's asset management system. This comprehensive effort will help reduce operating costs, optimize operations, and enhance the overall efficiency of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
Russia’s Pipe-Gas Flows to China at New Daily Record-- Gazprom said it set a new record for daily pipeline gas supplies to China on Saturday. Daily flows via the Power of Siberia gas link exceeded Russia’s maximum contractual obligations, Gazprom said in a statement, without providing a figure. On Dec. 1, Gazprom raised deliveries to the daily equivalent of 38 billion cubic meters per year, the design capacity of the Power of Siberia, it said. China is on track to become the largest market for Russia’s pipeline gas this year, with Gazprom becoming more reliant on China as a buyer after most of its European customers shunned Russian supplies in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.
China's Nov crude oil imports rebound on lower prices, stockpiling (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports jumped in November from a year earlier for the first annual growth in seven months, data showed on Tuesday, driven by lower prices of Middle East supplies and additions to the national stockpile. The world's top crude oil buyer took in 48.52 million metric tons last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, up 14.3% from 42.45 million tons a year earlier and equivalent to about 11.81 million barrels per day. Daily average imports were the highest since August 2023 and up from a low base in November 2023 of 10.33 million bpd. Despite the rebound, year-to-date imports were 1.9% lower, potentially pointing to a decline for the whole of 2024. A decline from 2023 would mark the third annual fall in the past five years after pandemic-triggered drops in 2021 and 2022. Refiners in November bought more oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq following sharp cuts in the official selling prices, offsetting some of the decline in imports of Iranian oil because of reduced loadings in October. Loadings at export terminals, including Iran's Kharg Island hub, had dropped significantly in October from September, with ship owners concerned about possible Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, according to tanker trackers Kpler and Vortexa. China's newest refiner Shandong Yulong Petrochemical ramped up a 200,000 bpd crude unit to around 90%. Yulong Petrochemical is also aiming for trial runs on a second unit of the same size as early as January. The new refinery's increased runs and China's issue of an additional crude oil import quota of at least 5.84 million tons (116,800 bpd) to independent refiners for 2024 should help to lift December imports, according to traders. China has also asked state oil companies this year to add 8 million tons of crude to its emergency stockpiles to boost supply security. Stockpiling in the eastern province of Shandong, where most refiners are located, started in late September with imports of Russian and Middle East crude, Vortexa analyst Emma Li wrote in a report. The November data also showed China's natural gas imports, comprising both liquefied natural gas (LNG) and piped gas, declined 1.4% on the year to 10.80 million tons. Year-to-date volumes are up 12% over the same period last year at 120 million tons. Exports of refined oil products, which include diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel and marine fuel, rose 3% from a year earlier to 5.23 million tons and were up versus October's 3.96 million tons, which was the lowest since April 2023. Exports of gasoline rebounded in November as refiners dashed to secure higher profits before changes to export tax rebates took effect in December.
Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty in the Middle East - The oil market on Monday traded higher in light of increased geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East after Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad was ousted by Syrian rebels on Sunday and hopes of revived Chinese demand. While Syria is not a major oil producer, it holds geopolitical importance due to its location and ties with Russia and Iran. A tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in the Red Sea to head away from its original destination. Meanwhile, China announced it would adopt loose monetary policy next year to support economic growth in the country. It said it would increase consumption and expand domestic demand. The oil market posted a low of $67.08 on the opening and retraced more than 50% of its move from a high of $70.51 to a low of $66.98 as it traded to a high of $68.88 by mid-morning. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The January WTI contract settled up $1.17 at $68.37 and the February Brent contract settled up $1.02 at $72.14. The product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.09 cents at $2.1835 and the RB market settling up 4.63 cents at $1.9525. Syrians awakened on Monday to a hopeful if uncertain future, after rebels seized the capital Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, following 13 years of civil war and more than 50 years of his family’s rule. President Assad’s fall wiped out a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world. Russian media reported and Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, said Russia gave asylum to Assad and his family. International governments welcomed the end of the Assads’ autocratic government, as they sought to take stock of the new situation in the Middle East. U.S. President Joe Biden said Syria is in a period of risk and uncertainty, and it is the first time in years that neither Russia, Iran nor the Hezbollah militant organization held an influential role there. HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the U.S., Turkey and the United Nations, although it has spent years trying to soften its image to reassure international governments and minority groups within Syria.A tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in Red Sea to head away from its original destination after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Suezmax tanker Lotus, carrying about 1 million barrels of Iranian oil, turned around just before the Suez Canal on December 8th to start sailing southbound in the Red Sea.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 25,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 13th, raising available refining capacity by 64,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to remain at 25,000 bpd in the week ending December 20th. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center report today that for the week ending December 7th, the U.S. recorded 238 HDDs on an oil home heating customer weighed basis. This was some 36 HDDs better than normal and 53 HDDs higher than the same week a year ago. For the current week ending December 14th the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting just 187 HDDs. This weekly total would be 31 HDDs less than normal and 7 less than same week a year ago.
Oil rises over 1% on ouster of Syria's Assad, Chinese monetary policy (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Monday on higher geopolitical risk after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and as top importer China flagged its first move towards a loosened monetary policy stance since 2010. Brent crude futures settled $1.02, or 1.4%, higher at $72.14 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.17, or 1.7%, to $68.37. "Events in Syria over the weekend could impact the crude market and increase the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices in the weeks and months to come amid yet more instability in the Middle East region," said Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis. Syrian rebels said on state television on Sunday they had ousted Assad, ending a 50-year family dynasty and raising fears of more instability in a region gripped by war. While Syria is not a major oil producer, it holds geopolitical clout due to its location and ties with Russia and Iran, and mixed with the tensions elsewhere in the region, the regime change has potential to spill into neighbouring territories, Leon said. In early signs of disruptions in the oil market, a tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in the Red Sea, ship-tracking data showed.Meanwhile, China will step up "unconventional" counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, state media Xinhua reported, citing a readout of a meeting of top Communist Party officials, the Politburo.China's growth has stalled as a slump in the property market has hit confidence and consumption. Loosening policy refers to actions by a central bank or government to boost growth, such as increasing money supply, lowering interest rates, and implementing fiscal stimulus."We see a commodity-price boom if China indeed follows through with the promises of looser monetary policy and the possibility that they will do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy," China's slowdown was a factor behind the decision of oil producers' group OPEC+ last week to postpone plans for higher output until April.Weighing on prices, leading exporter Saudi Aramco on Sunday reduced its January 2025 prices for Asian buyers to their lowest level since early 2021, as markets worried it could signal weak demand.Traders also remained focused on U.S. inflation data expected later this week that could cement a December interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and spur demand for oil.
Crude oil prices under pressure amid disappointing Chinese data - Crude oil prices retreated from Monday's gains amid weak demand outlooks, following disappointing Chinese international trade data for November. Crude oil prices slid following disappointing China's international trade data in the Asian session on Tuesday. At 6 am CET, Brent futures were down 0.37% to $71.9 per barrel, and the WTI futures slipped 0.45% to $68.06 per barrel. The swift downturn in oil prices highlighted an ongoing weak demand outlook for the traditional energy markets, driven by the global economic slowdown, particularly in China. China's exports rose 6.7% and imports fell 3.9% from a year ago in November, both of which were significantly lower than economists' estimated 8.7% and a rise of 0.9%. On Monday, China also reported a weaker-than-expected consumer price index (CPI), underlining the ongoing sluggish domestic demands. Crude oil prices rose more than 1% rally on Monday amid China's pledge to adopt more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies to aid the economy in 2025. The top officials said China would "implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy" at the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee. The statement signalled Beijing would impose more aggressive stimulus measures, such as raising the fiscal deficit, lowering the interest rates, and increasing government borrowings to shore up its economic growth in the new year. As the world's biggest oil importer, China's demand outlook has a direct influence on the crude markets. According to LSEG estimates, China's oil imports averaged 10.94m barrels per day (bpd) in the first 10 months of the year, a 3.7% decline from the same period last year. However, November's imports reached a four-month high of 11.62m bpd. On a positive note, a report from S&P Global projected that China's oil demand may increase by 1.7% to 17.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. This improved outlook likely reflects Beijing's ongoing stimulus measures, announced in September with sweeping easing policies to support its faltering economic recovery. However, analysts from Commodity Insights caution that rising production in the United States and Canada, along with output increases by OPEC+, may balance supply and demand, mitigating any price impact from increased demand. Last week OPEC+ postponed its plan to unwind the joint output cuts last week amid a slowdown in global demand and rising US production. The organisation, supplying about half of the world's oil, decided to delay hiking its production by three months and a full recovery in output by a whole year until the end of 2026. "Ultimately, the market will be focused on demand side factors given that OPEC has tried to tweak the supply side to boost prices, so far to no avail. The marginal driver of future demand will be China. So, for oil to continue to rally, we need steady, good news about the Chinese economy," The only bullish factor for the oil markets is intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, Syrian rebels toppled the government and ousted President Bashar al-Assad. The event, combined with escalating military conflicts between Iran and Israel, as well as the war in Ukraine, altogether increased uncertainties in the region. In late November, crude prices rose more than 9% during the week due to a major war escalation between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine launched US-made longer-range missiles targeting a military base inside Russian territory, promoting Russia to lower its doctrine to use nuclear weapons. Russia also fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine, marking a major escalation in the geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia. However, the price surge was short-lived amid ceasefire talks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump pushed Russia to reach an immediate truce with Ukraine.
Oil Futures Down on Low EIA Crude Price Forecast for 2025 -- The front-month NYMEX crude contract prices for January deliveries and Brent crude contract prices for February edged down on Tuesday after the Energy Information Administration forecasted lower prices for both crude benchmarks in 2025, compared to 2024. According to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, EIA anticipates a WTI spot price average for $71.63 barrel (bbl) in 2025, compared to an estimated average of $76.96 bbl for 2024. Meanwhile, the EIA-STEO report forecasts a Brent spot price average of $76.08 bbl for 2025 from a forecast of $80.93 bbl for 2024.Throughout Tuesday, oil futures showed few changes as participants await market direction from U.S. inflation data for November, to be released on Wednesday. Oil futures showed little change this morning as market participants remained In a wait-and-see situation as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release November's Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.Economists expect the Consumer Price Index for November to increase 2.7% year-on-year, from 2.6% in October.The inflation data will be a key factor in determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025 to as low as 3% from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The decision will be announced on Dec. 18, when the Federal Open Market Committee meets.Downstream, the national average for retail regular gasoline continued lower as of Dec. 9, down by 2.6 cents to $3.008 gallon, hitting a multi-year low since the week ended May 10, 2021, according to the latest data from the EIA.Separately, the International Air Transport Association expects net profits of $36.6 billion for the global airline industry in 2025, an increase of 3.6% compared to last year, driven by lower jet fuel prices. IATA estimates total industry revenues to reach $1.007 trillion, a 4.4% hike year-over-year, surpassing the $1 trillion mark for the first time. Near 3:51 p.m. EST, January WTI fell $0.02 to $68.35 bbl while February Brent was $71.95 bbl, down $0.78. January RBOB futures dropped by $0.0048 to $1.9477 gallon and January ULSD futures fell $0.0039 to $2.1796 gallon.
The Market Focused on Hopes of Increased Demand in China - The oil market continued to trade higher on Tuesday as the market focused on the hopes of increased demand in China. The strength in the market follows the reports that China will adopt loose monetary policy next year in an attempt to prompt economic growth. The market was also supported by news that China’s crude oil imports increased annually for the first time in seven months, increasing by 14.3% on the year in November. Early in the morning, the market posted a low of $67.72 as concerned eased about the fallout from the ouster of Syria’s President. Syrian rebels were working to form a government and restore order and the country’s banks and oil sector were resuming work on Tuesday. The oil market bounced off its low and rallied to a high of $69.06 by mid-day amid the economic news from China. It later erased some of its gains as traders positioned themselves ahead of the weekly petroleum stocks reports later on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The January WTI contract settled up 22 cents at $68.59 and the February Brent contract settled up 5 cents at $72.19. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 26 points at $2.1861 and the RB market settling up 43 points at $1.9568. The EIA estimated in its Short Term Energy Outlook that world petroleum demand in 2024 is expected to increase by 890,000 bpd to 103.03 million bpd and increase by 1.29 million bpd to 104.32 million bpd in 2025. Its world oil demand estimate for 2024 was cut from a previous estimate of 103.1 million bpd and its estimate for 2025 was also cut from a previous forecast of 104.4 million bpd. World oil output in 2024 is forecast to increase by 570,000 bpd to 102.59 million bpd, while output in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.65 million bpd to 104.24 million bpd. OPEC crude output is forecast to fall by 100,000 bpd to 32.07 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 160,000 bpd to 32.23 million bpd in 2025. U.S. oil output is estimate to increase by 310,000 bpd to 13.24 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 280,000 bpd to 13.52 million bpd. U.S. net crude oil imports are forecast to fall by 20% next year to 1.9 million bpd, the lowest level since 1971. U.S. total petroleum products demand is forecast to increase by 10,000 bpd to 20.29 million bpd in 2024 and by 240,000 bpd to 20.53 million bpd in 2025. Gasoline demand in 2024 is expected to remain unchanged at 8.94 million bpd but increase by 10,000 bpd to 8.95 million bpd in 2025, while distillate demand is forecast to fall by 80,000 bpd to 3.8 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 160,000 bpd to 3.96 million bpd in 2025. The EIA lowered its forecast for WTI prices to $76.51/barrel in 2024 from a previous forecast of $77/barrel and the estimate for 2025 was lowered to $69.12/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $71.60/barrel. The EIA also lowered its estimate for Brent crude prices to $80.49/barrel in 2024, down from a previous forecast of $80.95/barrel, while the forecast for 2025 was cut to $73.58/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $76.06/barrel. China’s crude oil imports in November increased from a year earlier for the first annual growth in seven months, driven by lower prices of Middle East supplies and additions to the national stockpile. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed China imported 48.52 million metric tons or 11.81 million bpd in November, up 14.3% from 42.45 million tons a year earlier.
OPEC’s Oil Production Rose in November as Libyan Output Jumped - Crude oil production from all OPEC members rose by 104,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November compared to October, the organization’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed on Wednesday.Total OPEC-12 crude oil production averaged 26.66 million bpd last month, as output in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria increased, according to OPEC’s secondary sources used to track supply to the market.Of the three countries where production rose the most in November from the previous month, two – Libya and Iran – are exempted from the OPEC+ production cuts due to political instability and Western sanctions, respectively.In November, Libya’s crude oil production jumped by 141,000 bpd to 1.238 million bpd, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.Recently, Libya’s oil output hit an 11-year high of over 1.4 million bpd, after recovering from the dip in September due to the field blockades over a row about the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya, the only internationally recognized depository of Libya’s oil revenues.Production in Iran rose by 37,000 bpd to 3.323 million bpd in November, per OPEC’s secondary sources.The third OPEC producer exempted from the cuts, Venezuela, saw its output decline by 20,000 bpd.Among the biggest OPEC members, the top producer and de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, continued to keep its pledge to pump “around 9 million bpd”—its oil production averaged 8.963 million bpd in November, down by 10,000 bpd from October OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, saw its output drop by 45,000 bpd to 4.043 million bpd—reflecting efforts to fall in line with its quota, which is 4 million bpd.The rise in OPEC’s production for November comes as the OPEC+ group, comprising OPEC and a dozen non-OPEC producers led by Russia, last week decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026.
OPEC Revises Oil Demand Growth Forecast Lower For Fifth Straight Month: Retail’s Pessimistic -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed its oil demand growth forecast for the fifth straight month according to its monthly oil market report.OPEC revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 lower by 210,000 barrels/day (b/d) to 1.6 million b/d. The bulk of the revision was made in the third quarter of 2024, taking into account the recently received bearish data. For 2025, oil demand growth forecast witnessed a downward revision by 90,000 b/d to 1.4 million b/d. Most of the downward revision is in the third quarter of 2025, given the downward revision of Q3 2024 and generally lower demand growth in 2025 compared to 2024, it said. The group expects total world oil demand to reach 106.9 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 105.3 million b/d in 2025.Following the announcement, oil prices continued to trade in the green. Brent crude futures maturing in Feb. 2025 were trading 0.96% higher at $72.88 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures maturing in January were up 1.24% at $69.44 per barrel.The United States Oil Fund LP (USO), which tracks the daily price movements of light, sweet crude oil, was up 1.75% on Wednesday. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits, however, continued to trend in the ‘bearish’ territory (44/100), accompanied by high message volume. The downward revision to oil demand comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced last week its member countries will extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, announced in November 2023, until the end of March 2025.OPEC+ had said the 2.2 million barrels per day adjustments will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of Sept. 2026 to support market stability. The monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, it added.Despite the ongoing wars in the middle-east as well as Ukraine, oil prices have remained subdued for a greater part of the year. The USO stock is up over 10% on a year-to-date basis.
Crude Oil: Market Set to Be in Surplus Despite OPEC+ Action The global Crude Oil market is set to return to surplus in 2025 despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts. This surplus should see prices trending lower next year. However, there are risksOil prices have come under a fair amount of pressure this year, with the market worried about demand and the surplus outlook for 2025. Even after a handful of OPEC+ members decided to further delay the return of 2.2m b/d of additional voluntary cuts, our balance is still showing that the market will be in surplus through 2025 – although admittedly the surplus is more modest following action taken by the group. The scale of the expected surplus has shrunk from more than 1m b/d to around 500k b/d now.Non-OPEC supply in 2025 is forecast to grow by around 1.4m b/d, which exceeds demand growth estimates of a little under 1m b/d next year.The surplus environment means that prices are likely to remain under pressure and we expect ICE Brent to average US$71/bbl over 2025.There are clear risks to this view, including a stricter enforcement of sanctions against Iran and OPEC+ deciding to further delay the return of 2.2m b/d of supply. In addition, there is growing instability in the Middle East – something the market remains fairly complacent about.Action taken by OPEC+ in early December has shown participants that the group appears committed to trying to keep the market in balance. We were of the view that falling prices, rising non-OPEC supply and some members producing above production targets would make it increasingly difficult for the group to continue with the significant supply cuts we are seeing.The group proved us wrong at its December meeting by not only delaying the gradual return of 2.2m b/d of supply from January to April, but also by planning to increase supply at a slower pace. This means that the group is planning to take 18 months to return this full supply, compared to 12 months previously. So instead of increasing supply by around 180k b/d every month, the group will increase supply by a little less than 140k b/d.While the delay in returning supply likely lifts the floor for the market slightly, we do not believe it changes the underlying issue. Eventually, the group will have to accept lower prices. Otherwise, it will continue to lose market share to non-OPEC producers.Following recent action from OPEC+, it looks more likely that the group will extend cuts further if needed in 2025. However, it is important not to rule out the risk of growing disagreement between the group, particularly if oil prices remain under pressure. Lower oil prices translate to lower oil revenues for OPEC members and this has weighed on many Middle Eastern producers’ fiscal budgets.The way to try to maintain oil revenues is by pumping more. So, compliance among some members may slip if prices trend lower. We have seen a handful of producers already pumping above their production targets for much of the year. The Saudis raised concerns over some members not sticking to production targets and the risk that oil prices could fall substantially lower – possibly an indirect threat that if members do not stick to cuts, they would increase output, potentially starting a price war. We don’t have to go back very far to see the potential impact this can have on the market. In 2020, a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia saw oil prices plummet, although this also coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic.For much of this year, there has been plenty of focus on geopolitical events in the Middle East and concerns that escalation could have an impact on Iranian supply as well as potentially regional supply. However, despite tensions, the lack of disruption to oil supply has meant that the market has become increasingly immune to developments in the Middle East. We would likely need to see an actual supply disruption in order to push oil prices significantly higher.The amount of spare production capacity OPEC is sitting on also provides some comfort to the market. OPEC sits on more than 5m b/d of spare production capacity, so in the event of a supply disruption, there is sizeable capacity to make up for any disruptions. However, OPEC would likely be slow to bring capacity back online, holding out for higher prices. Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price is over US$90/bbl, so they would like to see prices trading closer to this level – although they would not want to push prices too high, given the risk of demand destruction.In the event that we see disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, this spare capacity wouldn't prove very helpful, given that most of OPEC’s spare capacity sits in the Persian Gulf and this supply would have to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
Basrah crude prices climb as global oil markets steady - On Wednesday, Basrah crude oil climbed, following the increase in global oil prices. Basrah Heavy crude oil prices surged by $0.33, settling at $66.44 per barrel. Basrah Medium crude oil prices gained $0.33 to $69.59 per barrel.Globally, oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as market participants anticipated increased demand in China, the world's largest crude importer, following Beijing's announcement of looser monetary policy measures aimed at boosting economic growth. Brent crude futures climbed 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.55 a barrel by 0430 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.95.
WTI Holds Gains As 'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing Hub; US Production Hit Record High - Oil prices are up this morning on the possibility of tighter sanctions on Russian crude and held its gains after US inflation data matched expectations. US consumer prices rose 0.3% in November, meeting expectations and leaving traders to focus on a report that the Biden administration is considering tougher sanctions on Russia’s oil trade. Curtailing Russian barrels could tighten the market and drive up prices before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Details of the possible measures were still being worked out, according to people familiar with the matter.The market is focused on the official crude inventory data from the US Department of Energy after API reported a small buildup last week.API
- Crude +500k
- Cushing -1.5mm
- Gasoline +2.85mm
- Distillates +2.45mm
DOE
- Crude -1.425mm
- Cushing -1.298mm
- Gasoline +5.086mm - biggest build since January
- Distillates +3.235mm
The official data made somewhat of a mockery of the API data overnight with a large drawdown in crude stocks and at the Cushing and major product builds... Graphics from Bloomberg. Cushing stocks are testing 'tank bottoms' once again... Despite another weekly addition to the SPR, total crude stocks fell for the third week in a row... US Crude production surged to a new record high last week (13.6mm b/d)... WTI dipped modestly on the official data but is holding gains for the day for now...
The European Union Agreed to Impose Further Sanctions - The crude market maintained its upward momentum on Wednesday and rallied higher following the news that the European Union agreed to impose further sanctions against Russia over its war against Ukraine. The market was well supported by the news as the sanctions in particular target Russia’s shadow fleet that has helped Russia bypass the $60/barrel price cap imposed by the G7 on Russian seaborn crude. The oil market posted a low of $68.44 on the opening and continued on its recent upward trend. The market found early resistance and pared some of its gains following the OPEC monthly report, which showed a cut to its demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025. However, the market traded higher and never looked back on the news of the sanctions imposed against Russia. The market rallied to a high of $70.46 ahead of the close. The January WTI contract settled up $1.70 at $70.29 and later posted a high of $70.53 in the post settlement period. The February Brent contract settled up $1.33 at $73.52. The product markets were also well supported, with the heating oil market settling up 3.72 cents at $2.2233 and the RB market settling up 2.9 cents at $1.9858. OPEC lowered its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 global oil demand growth in the fifth consecutive cut to the producers group’s monthly report. OPEC said it now expects 2024 global oil demand to increase by 1.61 million bpd, down from a previous forecast of 1.82 million bpd. OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate to 1.45 million bpd from 1.54 million bpd.The European Union on Wednesday gave preliminary backing to its 15th round of sanctions against Russia. The latest package will include an extension of an exemption for Slovakia to trade petroleum products derived from Russian oil through June 2025. The sanctions package also includes restrictions on some 45 additional Russian oil tankers and several firms involved in shipping Russian oil as well as listing some 50 individuals and nearly 30 entities and freezing their assets and imposition of travel bans. The sanctions package also looks to impose penalties for several Chinese firms that reportedly have been helping Russian companies develop attack drones for use against Ukraine.U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, said the United States is continuing to look for creative ways to reduce Russia’s oil revenue and hamper its ability to wage war in Ukraine.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 25,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 13th, raising available refining capacity by 64,000 bpd. It said offline capacity is expected to remain at 25,000 bpd in the week ending December 20th.U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in November. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in November, the largest gain since April after advancing 0.2% for four consecutive months. In the 12 months through November, the CPI increased 2.7% after increasing 2.6% in October. Excluding the food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% in November, increasing by the same margin for the fourth consecutive month. In the 12 months through November, the core CPI gained 3.3%. That followed a similar advance in October.
U.S. oil prices top $70 for first time in over 2 weeks on tight-supply concerns Crude-oil prices ended higher for a third straight session on Wednesday, with China's plans to boost its economy expected to lift energy demand and as talk of potential new U.S. oil sanctions on Russia raised prospects for tighter global supplies.Official U.S. data released Wednesday also revealed a weekly fall in domestic crude supplies for a third consecutive week, while the major oil producers known as OPEC cut their oil-demand growth forecasts for this year and next.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for January delivery CL.1 CLF25 rose $1.70, or 2.5%, to settle at $70.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices ending at their highest since Nov. 22, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- February Brent crude BRN00 BRNG25, the global benchmark, climbed by $1.33, or 1.8%, at $73.52 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
- -- January gasoline RBF25 added 1.5% at $1.99 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 rose 1.7% to $2.22 a gallon.
- -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 settled at $3.38 per million British thermal units, up 6.8% Wednesday. Month to date, it's up just 0.5%.
Oil prices gained following a report by Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, that the Biden administration is considering new sanctions on Russian oil in a effort to weaken Russia's ability to fund its war with Ukraine, before incoming U.S. President Donald Trump takes office.A U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Russia may use its lethal intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine again in the coming days, the Associated Press reported, citing a U.S. official.That would "definitely amp up the risk," and with reports that the U.S. is looking to toughen sanctions on Russia, there may be "some protection buying in the [oil] complex," New Russian oil sanctions had been "previously avoided due to concerns over global energy cost spikes," . But "bolder measures are now deemed viable, with oil prices currently subdued by a global surplus and increasing anxieties that the incoming administration may push for a swift resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.""This shift could impose new pressures on one of the world's largest oil producers," he said in a daily note. "Until the specifics of the sanctions are revealed, this could establish a floor under oil prices," said Innes. "If the sanctions prove substantial, we could see oil prices climb higher."Support for oil has also been tied to the recent pledge by China's Politburo on more aggressive stimulus measures."Experts see supporting domestic spending and investment as key factors to support growth," . "The crystallization of the impact of the recent support packages and reforms over the next year, in conjunction with easy monetary conditions, should accelerate the recovery," he wrote in market commentary.Oil prices were up despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report Wednesday, lowering its forecast for 2024 global oil demand growth by 210,000 barrels per day from the November report to 1.6 million barrels per day, year-on-year. For 2025, it also cut its oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day.The reductions marked the fifth month in row that OPEC has lowered its oil demand growth projections, according to The Wall Street Journal. OPEC's downward revision likely "partially reflects the challenging growth outlook in China," said Kenny Zhu, research analyst, Global X, in emailed commentary.Weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies from the Energy Information Administration released Wednesday showed decline of 1.4 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 6.The report was expected to show a decline of 600,000 barrels on average, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude inventory climb of 499,000 barrels, according to a source citing the data.The EIA also reported weekly supply gains of 5.1 million barrels for gasoline and 3.2 million barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Commodity Insights survey forecast inventory gains of 1.7 million barrels each for gasoline and distillates.U.S. oil production was up by 118,000 barrels at 13.631 million barrels per day in the latest week, the EIA said. That's a fresh record high.Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub fell by 1.3 million barrels to 22.9 million barrels, data showed. Demand for gasoline rose, with total motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, at 8.810 million barrels per day in the latest week, from 8.738 million bpd from a week earlier.Separately, a monthly report from the EIA released Tuesday showed expectations for a oil supply deficit this year, with total world oil output forecast at 102.6 million barrels per day and total world consumption at 103.0.
Basrah crude prices climb as global oil markets steady - Shafaq News - On Thursday, Basrah crude oil rose by more than $1 amid steady global oil markets.Basrah Heavy crude gained $1.02, reaching $67.46 per barrel, while Basrah Medium crude climbed $0.97 to settle at $70.56 per barrel.Global oil prices remained stable as concerns over weak demand and higher-than-expected builds in US gasoline and distillate inventories were offset by the European Union's sanctions on Russian oil flows. By 01:41 GMT, Brent crude futures edged down $0.05 to $73.47 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dipped $0.11 to $70.18 per barrel.
Oil settles flat; markets weigh IEA surplus forecast, rate cut optimism (Reuters) - Oil prices settled close to unchanged on Thursday, pressured by a forecast for ample supply in the oil market but supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Brent crude futures settled down 11 cents, or 0.15%, to $73.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.38%, at $70.02. The International Energy Agency made a slight upward revision to its demand outlook for next year but still expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied. On Wednesday, OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month."If you look at the actual data, the IEA is saying that the glut they predicted should be happening right this minute," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. Global oil inventories fell by 39.3 million barrels in October as low refinery activity coincided with a rise in global oil demand, data from IEA showed.In the U.S., inflation rose slightly in November, in line with economists' expectations. Investors broadly expect the Fed to cut rates again, feeding optimism about economic growth and energy demand."The inflation report creates a lot of comfort. It could have been better, but it seems to be low enough for the Fed to reduce rates at the next meeting," In the world's top oil consumer, the U.S., gasoline and distillate inventories rose by more than expected last week, Energy Information Administration data showed.Global oil demand rose at a slower than expected rate this month but has remained resilient, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.Chinese crude imports grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14% from a year earlier.In the Middle East, Iran agreed to tougher monitoring by the U.N. nuclear watchdog at its Fordow site dug into a mountain after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade there, putting pressure on prices.
Oil Snaps Three-Day Rally on Expectation of Supply Glut in 2025 -- Oil snapped a three-day rally to settle near $70 a barrel with expectations for a supply glut in 2025 countering geopolitical risks. The International Energy Agency on Thursday reiterated its calls for a large supply surplus next year, despite OPEC’s decision to delay output hikes. The agency’s forecast runs counter to that of the US government, which sees markets in balance next year.Crude’s inability to surpass its 50-day moving average also stymied the recent rally, with the technical level providing a ceiling for prices for almost three weeks. Still, WTI held onto most of the week’s gains“We are swimming in oil and will be for some time,” said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. But firm physical markets and the possibility of new sanctions on Russia are allowing some traders to maintain a bullish outlook, he added.Oil earlier pared losses on reports that the conflict in the Middle East is escalating. Traders tracking the risk of supply disruption in the region pointed to a Times of Israel report saying Israel’s military sees the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad as an opportunity to carry out a strike on Iran. The report, citing unnamed military officials, comes as Israel continues its offensive in the nation.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a softer global oil market might create an opportunity for further action against Russia’s energy sector, and Donald Trump’s pick for national security adviser vowed a return to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran.
China Stockpiling Offers Short-Term Reprieve for Oil Light crude oil futures climbed 4.52% this week as of Thursday, reflecting a mix of supportive and limiting factors that shaped market activity. Key drivers included Chinese economic policy changes, Middle Eastern unrest, U.S. inventory levels, and global supply forecasts.China’s announcement of a "moderately loose" monetary policy boosted expectations for higher crude demand. This marked the country’s first easing of monetary policy in over a decade, aimed at addressing weak economic growth, low consumer confidence, and a faltering property market.Chinese crude imports surged by more than 14% year-over-year in November, breaking a seven-month streak of declines. However, much of this increase appears to be tied to stockpiling rather than a robust recovery in consumption. Concerns persist over China’s long-term demand, given its economic pivot toward renewables and electric vehicles.Political upheaval in the Middle East added uncertainty to the oil market. Syrian rebels deposed President Bashar al-Assad, ending his decades-long regime but raising the potential for broader regional tensions. While Syria’s oil production is negligible, its alliances with Russia and Iran could influence regional supply security. The European Union also tightened sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a network of ships bypassing the G7 price cap on Russian crude.…
Oil edges lower on 2025 supply surplus forecast – Oil prices inched lower on Friday as investors focused on a forecast of ample supply and shrugged off expectations of higher demand next year from Chinese stimulus measures, while eyeing another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. Brent crude futures edged down 8 cents to $73.33 a barrel by 0125 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.95 a barrel, down 7 cents. The International Energy Agency expects non-OPEC+ nations to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, driven by the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. Supply is expected to exceed demand growth forecast of 1.1 million bpd, IEA said in its monthly oil market report, raising its demand forecast from 990,000 bpd last month. Demand growth would be seen “largely in Asian countries due to the impact of China’s recent stimulus measures”, it said. Three of Canada’s biggest oil producers forecast higher production in 2025. Building on record production in the U.S., Goldman Sachs expects Lower 48 shale oil production to grow by 600,000 bpd in 2025 although the growth could slow if Brent falls below $70 a barrel. Still, Brent and WTI are on track to notch a weekly gain of more than 3% as concerns about supply disruption from tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran, and hopes that Chinese stimulus measures could lift demand at the world’s No. 2 oil consumer support prices. Chinese crude imports grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, driven by lower prices and stockpiling. Crude imports at the world’s largest importer are set to stay elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota. Investors also eyed the impact of tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran on supplies from the major oil producers to China and India. They are also betting that the Fed will cut borrowing costs next week and follow up next year with further reductions, after economic data showed weekly claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose.
Oil Futures Gain on Limited Supply Outlook -- The NYMEX WTI futures contract for January delivery and February Brent futures contract remained bullish Friday, closing with gains over $1 on the day, as additional sanctions on Russia could lead scarce availability of Russian crude and oil products in the global markets. This week, EU ambassadors announced a 15th package of sanctions against Russia by adding more persons and entities to the already existing sanctions list and targeting shadow fleet that Russia uses to evade restrictions on transporting oil and fuel. With the hike in oil futures prices Friday, the market seems to have discounted the outlook for slow global demand in 2025 as forecasted by OPEC and the International Energy Agency in two separate reports this week.Meanwhile, attention next week will be centered on the Federal Open Committee meeting, where the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points after the 0.7% increase in November, the Consumer Price confirmed that the inflationary pressures continue.On industry news, latest data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of rigs in the U.S. actively drilling for oil remained at 482 as of Friday, 19 fewer than a year earlier. The number of U.S. natural gas rigs in operation held to the upside, rising one to 103 as of Friday. Currently, there are 16 fewer natural gas rigs in operation than during the same week in 2023, the same data showed.Canada-based Suncor Energy said it aims to grow its upstream production around 810,000-840,000 bpd and its refining utilization of 93% to 97% next year. For 2025, the operator anticipates adding over 100,000 bpd to its output from 2023 to 2026, with refining margins based on a crack spread of $22 bbl for New York Harbor and $18 bbl for Chicago.Airlines for America (A4A) also projects U.S. airlines will see record air travel throughout the holiday season, expecting more than 54 million passengers to fly from Thursday, Dec. 19 to Monday, Jan. 6. A4A earlier this week said U.S. carriers are prepared to fly more than 2.8 million passengers per day on average, an increase of 6% from last year's holiday period. At 3:06 p.m. EST, January NYMEX WTI futures climbed by $1.20 to $71.22, while February Brent future rose $1.06 to $74.47 bbl. The front-month ULSD futures contract edged up $0.0325 to $2.2691 gallon, while January RBOB for January delivery edged up $0.0114 to $1.9999 gallon.
Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 2% on Friday to settle at a three-week high, on expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies and that lower interest rates in Europe and the U.S. could boost fuel demand.Brent futures rose $1.08, or 1.5%, to settle at $74.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.27, or 1.8%, to settle at $71.29.That was Brent's highest close since Nov. 22 and put the contract up 5% for the week. WTI posted a 6% gain for the week and closed at its highest since Nov. 7. "This strength is being driven by ... expectations of tighter sanctions against Russia and Iran, more supportive Chinese economic guidance, Mideast political havoc and prospects for a Fed rate cut next week," . European Union ambassadors agreed to impose a 15th package of sanctions on Russia this week over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet. The U.S. is considering similar moves. Britain, France and Germany told the United Nations Security Council they were ready if necessary to trigger a so-called "snap back" of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.Chinese data this week showed crude imports in the world's top importer grew annually in November for the first time in seven months. They are set to stay elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota.The International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 990,000 bpd last month, citing China's stimulus measures.New bank lending in China rose by far less than expected in November, highlighting weak credit demand in the world's second-largest economy as policymakers pledge to roll out more stimulus measures. The IEA forecast an oil surplus for next year, when non-OPEC+ nations are set to boost supply by about 1.5 million bpd, driven by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S.OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia.The United Arab Emirates, an OPEC member, plans to reduce oil shipments early next year as OPEC+ seeks tighter discipline, according to Bloomberg.The price of crude sold to China from Iran, another OPEC member, rose to the highest in years as U.S. sanctions have tightened shipping capacity and boosted logistics costs. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is expected to ramp up pressure on Iran.Investors are also betting the Fed will cut U.S. rates next week, with further reductions next year, after data showed weekly claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose.U.S. import prices barely rose in November as rising food and fuel costs were largely offset by decreases elsewhere, thanks to a strong dollar.Four European Central Bank policymakers backed further interest rate cuts provided inflation settles at the bank's 2%-goal as expected.Lower interest rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil.
Yemen's Houthis Attack US Destroyers and Merchant Ships in Gulf of Aden - On Tuesday, US Central Command said two US Navy destroyers and three US commercial ships came under an attack launched by Yemen’s Houthis while transiting the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, took credit for the attack, saying they targeted two US destroyers that were accompanying “supply ships.” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the attack “achieved its objectives,” while CENTCOM said the attack was “defeated.”CENTCOM said the destroyers intercepted multiple drones and one cruise missile. “The reckless attacks resulted in no injuries and no damage to any vessels, civilians, or US Naval,” the command said. The Houthis launched a similar attack about 10 days ago.Sarea also said the Houthis had launched a drone into Israel, which hit abuilding in central Israel. “The operation, conducted with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), struck its target accurately,” Sarea said. The Israeli military said the attack caused some damage but no injuries. The US began bombing Yemen back in January in defense of Houthi attacks on Israeli shipping, which were launched in response to the genocidal war in Gaza. The US bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Houthis and only escalated the situation as the Yemeni group began targeting US shipping as a result.From 2015-2022, the US supported a Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis, which involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time. According to the UN, the war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.
Al-Golani: US-designated terrorist becomes Syria's liberation leader - Designated by the U.S. as a terrorist and with a $10 million bounty on his head, Abu Mohammed al-Golani has emerged as the leading figure in Syria’s liberation from the decades-long oppressive regime of Bashar Assad. He has quickly placed himself at the forefront of shaping the country’s future, with a past that is raising concerns even as much of Syria celebrates Assad’s fall. Born in Syria in the late 1970s or early 1980s, al-Golani is promoting himself as a pragmatic, political leader and extending assurances for Syria’s multiethnic and religious populations. These promises run in direct contrast to the violence and human rights abuses carried out by the Islamist groups he aligned with in the past, such as ISIS and al Qaeda. “No one has the right to erase another group,” he said in an interview with CNN in the days before taking over Damascus, the seat of Assad’s government. “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them. There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all, not a system that serves only one sect, as Assad’s regime has done.”While the Biden administration has welcomed Assad’s collapse as an historic, landmark event, U.S. officials have not confirmed it is in touch directly with al-Golani or members of the group he leads, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is also designated as a terrorist group. Al-Golani, as head of HTS, broke away from its alignment with al Qaeda, but U.S. officials and analysts are closely watching whether actions line up with the public statements. “We will remain vigilant, make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human right abuses,” President Biden said in remarks from the White House on Sunday. “We’ve taken note of statements by the leaders of these rebel groups in recent days, and they’re saying the right things now. But as they take on greater responsibility we will assess not just their words but their actions.Born Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria, al-Golani’s pseudonym is a reference to his family’s roots on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights — signaling one concern from the U.S. and Israel, whether al-Golani and HTS pose a threat to Israel.Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said HTS and its coalition groups are “much obsessed and inwardly focused” on establishing political rule over Syria. HTS, at the head of a military coalition including opposition forces and Islamist groups, appear to have control over the western half of the country with the main population centers of Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Homs and access to the Mediterranean Sea. Syrian-Kurdish groups, some backed by the U.S., have control over a smaller part of the country in the east. “Going forward though, the way that governments in Damascus often legitimate themselves — especially when they are unable to deliver for their people — is they do so through the resistance narrative and through attacking Israel,” Tabler said during a video briefing with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.“The question is whether these groups, whether it’s HTS or other Sunni-backed groups, will they resort to this old playbook to get legitimacy and to somehow capitalize on this war with Israel?”Al-Golani, in a victory speech delivered in Damascus’s historic Umayyad Mosque on Sunday, declared a new chapter in the region where the Syrian people are taking ownership of the country. By Monday, he was holding transitional meetings between Assad’s appointed prime minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali, and the prime minister of the self-declared Salvation Government — the governing body of Syria’s northwestern Idlib province that HTS controlled for years. “[Al-Golani’s] got a track record of having a technocratic government that provides minimal services,” said John Hannah, senior fellow with the Jewish Institute for National Security for America and who has served in senior foreign policy positions for both Democratic and Republican administrations. “[HTS] didn’t attack Christians and Druze and other minorities, but didn’t make them part of any democratic government, either, they were clearly second class citizens,” he continued. “But since his descent now into Damascus, all along the road, he’s been issuing proclamations to every single minority population he can find that they need to be — as long as they defect from the regime — that they’ll be protected, their property, governmental institution should be protected.” Al-Golani said he was never personally involved in acts of terrorism. In 2003, he reportedly traveled to Iraq to fight against the U.S. invasion and spent five years in an American-run prison in the country. Returning to Syria in 2011, he founded Jabhat al-Nusrah to serve as an off-shoot to the Islamic State, but later separated from the group, aligned with al Qaeda for a number of years, before declaring independence as HTS in 2016. The U.S. listed him as a specially designated national in 2013, a key sanctions designation; and in 2017, the FBI issued a $10 million reward for information on al-Golani’s whereabouts.
Turkey-backed Islamists attack Kurdish forces after Syria regime’s collapse -- The 13-year imperialist-backed regime-change war against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was supported by Russia and Iran, ended with the collapse of his regime in a matter of days. Now the imperialist states and regional powers, led by the US and its proxies in the country, are calculating how to carve up Syria. Turkey, which controls several provinces in northwestern Syria, has intervened both by directly supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA), the successor to the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), and by backing the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), despite recognising it as a terrorist organisation. On Saturday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not hide his delight as HTS advanced towards Damascus, saying, “Idlib, Hama, Homs, the target is of course Damascus. This march of the opposition continues. We are following it both through intelligence and through the media. Of course we hope that this march in Syria will continue without any accidents.” In the same speech, Erdoğan said, “We had made an appeal to Assad: ‘Let’s meet and determine the future of Syria together.’ Unfortunately, we could not get a positive response from Assad.” He added, “These troubled marches going on in the region as a whole are not what we desire, our hearts do not want this. Unfortunately, the region is in trouble.” These words come from the main regional player in NATO’s war for regime-change in Syria. Erdoğan’s concern is that US-backed Kurdish nationalist forces are one of the main forces in Syria and that the conflict could be revived against the interests of the Turkish ruling class. The jihadist takeover of Damascus and the Israeli offensive in Syria, in the midst of the Zionist regime’s genocide against the Palestinians and its aggression against Iran, have increased this possibility. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Monday: “A new era has begun in Syria. We must now focus on the future. We want to see a Syria where different ethnic and religious groups live in peace with an inclusive understanding of governance. We want to see a new Syria that has good relations with its neighbours and brings peace and stability to its region.” Özgür Özel, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), who on Saturday called for dialogue with Assad, later joined the chorus: “We call on all friends of Syria to support the establishment of a transitional government representative of all Syrians, followed by a democratic regime based on human rights and the rule of law, in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Libya,” Özel wrote on X. These statements are full of hypocrisy. The Turkish government and ruling class, together with its imperialist allies in NATO, are among the leading perpetrators of the war for regime-change in Syria, which has led to the death of hundreds of thousands, the displacement of millions and the destruction of the country’s infrastructure. The main determinant of Turkey’s recent Syria policy has been to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state on its southern border and the encouragement of separatist sentiment among the large Kurdish population inside Turkey itself. However, regime-change and expansionist ambitions have never been abandoned.
Report: US Gave Kurds an Ultimatum To Withdraw from Manbij in North Syria - The US had to give the Kurdish-led SDF an ultimatum to withdraw from the northern Syrian city of Manbij and cede it to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), Al-Monitor reported on Wednesday.According to the report, the US brokered a ceasefire deal between the SDF and the SNA that involved the Kurds withdrawing to areas east of the Euphrates River. The SDF was violating the agreement by maintaining a hold on Manbij and was encircled by SNA fighters who were backed by Turkish air power. SNA fighters were also advancing east of the Euphrates.The report said US officials were “exasperated” by the SDF’s refusal to head to the east of the river. The US threatened that the US military would no longer protect the SDF if it didn’t comply, prompting the Kurdish force to withdraw and cede the city to the SNA, which is mainly comprised of Sunni Muslim groups.A US official said that during the battle on Monday, the SDF shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone after mistaking it for a Turkish drone.Turkey has stepped up strikes on the US-backed Kurds in northern Syria following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Ankara played a key role in the regime change as it reportedly gave the green light for the offensive launched by the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has taken Damascus.Secretary of State Antony Blinken is headed to Ankara on Friday as the US is looking to limit the Turkish-backed offensive against the Kurds. The US has about 900 troops occupying Kurdish-controlled areas of eastern Syria, which have provided support to the SDF in recent fighting against the now-deposed government.Turkey has always been unhappy about the US support for the SDF since it considers the group a wing of the PKK, a Kurdish militant group both Turkey and the US have labeled a terrorist organization. James Jeffrey, who served as a US special envoy to Syria, acknowledged the SDF was the Syrian wing of the PKK in an interview with PBS in 2018.
In Damascus, Julani Declares 'Mujahideen' Victorious Against Assad - Abu Mohammad al-Julani, leader of the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, delivered a victory speech at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, declaring the success of the “mujahideen” against former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has reportedly fled to Moscow.“Today, Syria is purified, thanks to God almighty,” Julani said. “Thanks to God almighty, then thanks to the heroic mujahideen.”Julani criticized Assad, whose family ruled Syria for more than 50 years, saying he had let the country become a haven “for Iranian greed.”HTS began its lightning offensive on November 27 from the northwestern Idlib province, which it has controlled since 2017. HTS and its allies quickly seized Aleppo, Hama, and then Damascus.Julani was formerly the leader of al-Nusra Front, which was the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. In 2016, Julani rebranded, claiming to cut ties with al-Qaeda, and changed his group’s name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which merged with other Islamist groups to form HTS in 2017.The US has long sought the overthrow of Assad, and despite HTS’s links with al-Qaeda, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US wouldn’t “cry” about the pressure Syria and its allies were facing from the militant group’s offensive. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali, who stayed in the country,said he was willing to “cooperate” with whoever Syrians choose as their leader. “This country can be a normal country that builds good relations with its neighbors and the world,” Jalali said, according to The New Arab. “But this issue is up to any leadership chosen by the Syrian people. We are ready to cooperate with it (that leadership) and offer all possible facilities.”
Israel Says It Launched 480 Strikes in Syria Since Fall of Assad - The Israeli military said Tuesday that it launched 480 strikes in Syria over 48 hours following the overthrow of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which Israeli media said marked the heaviest Israeli bombing of Syria in history.The IDF said it struck “most of the strategic weapons stockpiles in Syria” and estimated it destroyed between 70% to 80% of the former government’s weapons. Israeli strikes hit targets across Syria, including the port of Latakia, which destroyed naval vessels. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Israeli bombing campaign “destroyed the most important military sites in Syria, including Syrian airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian governorates.”Israel has also seized territory inside Syria, a buffer zone separating the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria, and several areas beyond the zone. Sources told Reuters Israeli forces advanced 10 kilometers into Syrian territory and were only 25 kilometers away from Damascus.Israeli sources denied that Israeli troops advanced that far into Syria but also announced they were creating a “sterile defense zone” in southern Syria, framing the occupation as temporary. The US has backed Israel’s land grab in Syria, also claiming it was a defensive move.“Together with the prime minister, I have instructed the [military] to establish a sterile defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria, without a permanent Israeli presence,” said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday claimed Israel doesn’t seek to interfere in Syria’s “internal affairs” despite the massive bombing campaign and land grab. He also threatened that Israel would take more action if the new government aligned with Iran.“If the new regime in Syria allows Iran to re-establish itself, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price,” Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu Takes Credit for Assad's Overthrow, Israel Seizes Golan Heights 'Buffer Zone' -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday celebrated the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by al-Qaeda-linked militants and confirmed that Israel has seized a buffer zone inside Syria that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria’s territory.“This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Golan Heights. “The Assad regime is a central link in Iran’s axis of evil — this regime has fallen.”Netanyahu credited Israel with setting off the process that led to the downfall of Assad. In the months leading up to the offensive launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Israel was waging a war against Hezbollah and ramped up airstrikes in Syria.“This is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime,” Netanyahu said. “This has created a chain reaction throughout the Middle East of all those who want to be free from this oppressive and tyrannical regime.”Map showing the buffer zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria. The Israeli leader also said he directed the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to capture the buffer zone inSyria. “Together with the Defense Minister, and with full backing from the Cabinet, I directed the IDF yesterday to take control of the buffer zone and the dominant positions near it,” he said. “We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border.”The buffer zone Israel has seized has been patrolled by a UN peacekeeping force, known as UNDOF, since 1974. Netanyahu declared that the agreement establishing the buffer zone and UNDOF has now “collapsed.”The New York Times later reported that Israeli troops had entered Syrian territory beyond the buffer zone and took control of several locations. Israel also pounded Syria with airstrikes on Sunday, targeting dozens of military and government sites. Israeli officials said the purpose of the attacks was to prevent weapons from ending up in the hands of hostile forces.There are signs that Israel had been planning to make a move on the buffer zone before the Assad government collapsed. The Associated Pressreported that Israel began construction along the buffer zone, citing satellite images. After the report, UNDOF warned that Israel was committing “severe” violations of the deal with Syria that established the buffer zone. Netanyahu Says Occupied Golan Heights Will Be Israel's 'Forever' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights will be Israel’s “forever” comments that came a day after Israel captured territory inside Syria. Israel first took the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and annexed the territory in 1981, a move not recognized by any other country until the Trump administration did so in 2019. “I would like to take this opportunity to thank my friend, President-elect Donald Trump for acceding to my request to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, in 2019,” Netanyahu said at a press conference on Monday, according to his office.“Today, everyone understands the great importance of our presence there on the Golan, and not on the foothills of the Golan,” Netanyahu said. “The Golan Heights will forever be an inseparable part of the State of Israel,” the premier added.A day earlier, Netanyahu was in the Golan Heights and announced that he ordered the Israeli military to seize a buffer zone between the occupied Israeli territory and the rest of Syria that’s been patrolled by UN peacekeepers since 1974 under an Israel-Syria ceasefire deal.According to Israeli media, Israeli troops also captured several areas inside Syria that are beyond the buffer zone, including the Syrian side of the Mount Hermon mountain range. The land grab also came with massive Israeli airstrikes across Syria, which Israeli officials framed as being necessary to prevent hostile groups from acquiring weapons left behind by the now-deposed Syrian government.According to The Cradle, Israeli strikes since Sunday hit 250 targets across Syria, hitting military bases, air defenses, ammo depots, warehouses, and other military assets. Israeli media reported it as the heaviest Israeli bombing in the country since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Report: Israel Sees Opportunity To Bomb Iran After Downfall of Assad -The Israeli military believes there is now an opportunity to bomb Iran due to the weakening of its allies in the region following the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, The Times of Israel reported on Thursday.Israeli military officials said in the wake of the regime change in Syria, the Israeli Air Force has increased its preparations for a potential attack on Iran.The Times report said the IDF is considering launching strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. While Israeli officials are constantly claiming Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, there is no evidence that’s the case, a fact recently acknowledged by the CIA.In the wake of Assad’s ouster, Israel launched a massive bombing campaign in Syria, launching 480 strikes in just 48 hours. The Israeli military said it decimated the former government’s military assets, destroying about 80% of the equipment that was left behind.Israeli officials now say they have total air superiority over Syria due to the lack of air defenses, which could make it easier to launch airstrikes on Iran. Israeli warplanes used to have to avoid air defenses when bombing Syria, but now Israeli officials say they’re able to fly over Damascus without having to worry about getting shot down by Russian-made air defenses.Israel last bombed Iran in October, attacks that damaged some air defenses and killed four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Iranian officials vowed a response to the attack, but nothing has happened so far. Israel launched the strikes on Iran in response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel that was retaliation for a string of Israeli escalations in the region.
Netanyahu Hilariously Claims Israel Doesn't Seek To Intervene In Syria's Affairs - Caitlin Johnstone - Benjamin Netanyahu is hilariously saying that Israel has “no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs.” Only Israel could invade and occupy large stretches of a country, bomb it 480 times in 48 hours, destroy 80 percent of its military defenses, and then claim that it has no intention of interfering in that country’s internal affairs. Western regime change cheerleaders are partying about Syria as hard as they can right now because they know soon they’re going to have to turn a blind eye to everything that happens in that country for years to come, just like they did with Libya.The new people in charge in Syria have announced that they’re going to be opening up the nation’s markets and integrating into the global economy, which is one of the least surprising developments in this story so far. This is textbook disaster capitalism which we see in every major imperial power grab on a disobedient nation. Syria is now set to be picked apart and cannibalized by the highest bidder. Looks like meat’s back on the menu, boys.
Kremlin: Armed Groups Have Guaranteed the Security of Russian Bases in Syria - A source in the Kremlin has told Russian media that militants who have overthrown Bashar al-Assad have guaranteed the security of Russian military bases in the country.“Russian officials are in touch with representatives of armed Syrian opposition, whose leaders have guaranteed security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on the Syrian territory,” a Kremlin source told TASS.Militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, launched an offensive in Syria against Russia’s ally, Assad, on November 27 and quickly took over the capital, Damascus. The Kremlin source also told TASSthat Assad has fled to Moscow for asylum.“Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow. Russia has granted asylum to them proceeding from humanitarian considerations,” the source said.Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Assad had decided to flee Syria. “Following his talks with a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, Bashar al-Assad decided to step down as the Syrian President and leave the country, instructing the government to transfer power peacefully,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.The ministry insisted Russia was not involved in the talks but said it was in contact with the opposition. “The Russian Federation maintains contact with all Syrian opposition groups,” the ministry said.
End of Assad Regime Raises Risks of Syrian Fuel Shortages - The fall of the Assad regime in Syria after Bashar al-Assad fled the country and ended his 24-year tenure as president might engender a widespread fuel shortage across the Middle Eastern country.
- - The Syrian port of Baniyas was dependent on Iranian fuel supplies and the approximately 60,000 b/d of oil that Tehran was sending to Syria kept the country’s two existing refineries operational.
- - As representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rose to prominence in Syria, Iranian crude tankers en route to Syria made a U-turn, with the Lotus tanker carrying more than 1 million barrels stopping right in front of the Suez Canal.
- - Syria’s own production is mostly centred in Kurdish-populated areas, averaging around 80,000 b/d in recent months, with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan being the only viable suppliers of crude and products to Syria, now that Iran has been sidelined.
- Developing Nations Turns to Fuel Oil as LNG Prices Just Won’t Fall
- - High LNG prices are compelling natural gas buyers to reconsider their trading strategies and opt for cheaper equivalents, with Egypt’s recent U-turn away from LNG import tenders to fuel oil being a notable case in point.
- - Egypt’s imports of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) reached an all-time high of 255,000 b/d in September, however since then lower cooling demand and ample LNG supply have seen HSFO demand weaken.
Report: Ukraine Sent Drones and Drone Operators to HTS Before Offensive That Ousted Assad - Ukrainian intelligence had provided Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda, with drone support weeks before the group launched the offensive in Syria that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.“Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago,” wrote Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.While the US has celebrated Assad’s downfall, HTS is still listed by the US as a foreign terrorist organization, and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has a $10 million US bounty on his head. That means Ukraine has supplied weapons and intelligence support to a group the US considers a terrorist organization.Ukrainian and Russian reports have also reported that a special unit of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (abbreviated GUR or HUR) had provided support to HTS and was involved in some attacks on Russian bases in Syria.“Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present… training HTS fighters for combat operations,” Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia said at the UN after the HTS offensive started.The GUR has received significant support from the US over the years. The Washington Post reported last year that the CIA helped build up the GUR and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) following the 2014 coup that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. “GUR was our little baby. We gave them all new equipment and training,” a former US intelligence official who worked in Ukraine told the Post. The GUR has also been involved in fighting Russia’s Wagner mercenary force in Africa. In Mali, the GUR provided support for a July ambush that killed 84 Wagner operatives and 47 Malians.“The rebels received the necessary information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals,” GUR official Andriy Yusov said of the attack. The rebel coalition that launched the attack in Mali included Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin, an affiliate of al-Qaeda.
Israeli Attacks in Gaza Kill 44 Palestinians in 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Sunday that Israeli attacks across the Gaza Strip killed 44 Palestinians and wounded 74 more over the previous 24-hour period as the daily US-backed slaughter continues.The ministry only counts dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Israeli attacks on Sunday included Israeli artillery shelling of the Indonesian Hospital in Beith Lahia, northern Gaza. “The occupation targets the Indonesian Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip with an artillery shell,” the Health Ministry said in another post on Telegram.The Kamal Adwan Hospital, which is also in Beit Lahia, has come under constant Israeli attacks since the Israeli military began an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza in early October.Other Israeli strikes were reported on Sunday in Gaza City and areas of central and southern Gaza. According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, at least one Palestinian was killed by an attack on an apartment in Gaza City.Near Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, Israeli strikes targeted a tent camp, killing at least five Palestinians. Another five were killed by Israeli strikes that hit a group of civilians north of the southern city of Rafah. Gaza’s Health Ministry said the latest violence brought its death toll since October 2023 to 44,708 and the number of wounded to 106,050. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli onslaught has killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, a total that includes indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege. Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.
Israeli Attacks in Gaza Kill at Least 50 More Palestinians Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Monday that Israeli attacks killed at least 50 Palestinians and wounded 84 over the previous 24-hour period as the US-backed daily slaughter continues.Israeli strikes on Monday included an overnight attack on Palestinians in the southern city of Rafah who had lined up to buy flour. According to Al Jazeera, at least 10 Palestinians were killed in the strike.In central Gaza, a significant number of women and children were slaughtered or wounded by Israeli attacks. Bodies were piling up at the Al-Aqsa Hospital in central Gaza after at least nine people from the same family, mostly women and children, were killed by an Israeli strike on the Bureij refugee camp.At least two children were killed, and others were injured in a strike on the Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza, and they were also taken to the Al-Aqsa Hospital.Israeli strikes also continued to pound northern Gaza, which has been under siege since early October as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign. According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, several civilians were killed by an Israeli attack on a school-turned-shelter in Jabalia, and others were killed by strikes near the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia. Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital, which has come under constant Israeli attacks, warned on Monday that over 100 patients’ lives were at risk after an Israeli bombing cut off electricity, water, and oxygen. “The situation is extremely dangerous. We have patients in the intensive care unit and others awaiting surgeries. Access to the operating rooms is only possible after restoring electricity and oxygen supply,” Abu Safia said. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli onslaught has killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, a total that includes indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege. Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.
Airwars Finds Israel Killed Over 5,000 Civilians in Gaza in October 2023 - The monitoring group Airwars released a new report on Thursday that found Israeli forces killed a minimum of 5,139 civilians during the first 25 days of its bombing campaign in Gaza starting on October 7, 2023.Airwars examined 606 incidents of civilian harm and found that only 32-60 militants were killed in those same strikes. Using the higher estimate of 60 militant deaths, the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in the 606 incidents is about 85:1. Using the lower estimate of 32 brings the ratio to about 160:1.Airwars said the scale of civilian harm was incomparable to any other 21st-century conflict and that the number of civilians killed in the first 25 days was “nearly four times more civilians reported killed in a single month than in any conflict Airwars has documented since it was established in 2014.”The report detailed the huge number of children killed in Gaza during the first 25 days. “Airwars recorded a minimum of 1,900 children killed by Israeli military action in Gaza. This is nearly seven times higher than even the most deadly month for children previously recorded by Airwars,” the report reads.Airwars recorded a minimum number of 1,213 women were killed in the 606 incidents they reviewed. Women and children were mainly killed in residential buildings in strikes that often slaughtered many members of the same family.“Families were killed together in unprecedented numbers, and in their homes. More than nine out of ten women and children were killed in residential buildings. In more than 95 percent of all cases where a woman was killed, at least one child was also killed,” the report reads. The report said that Airwars assumes each person killed is a civilian unless there is evidence to the contrary. “Using publicly available information, Airwars makes every effort to investigate connections between individuals killed and militant groups. Evidence includes any suggestion in local sources that directly associate individuals with participation in hostilities or membership in a militant group,” the report reads. Airwars said it does not “capture” incidents where militants are killed and there’s no evidence of civilian harm. The group stresses in the report that the 5,139 civilians recorded killed is the minimum number based on the 606 incidents. Airwars is also still assessing other incidents that caused civilian harm during that 25-day period.“This report considers the most conservative estimates or the lowest possible estimates. Upper estimates of civilian harm are included in each incident published on Airwars’ fully public archive,” the report reads.Taiwan Says Its Tracking Chinese Warships After Taiwanese President Visited US - Taiwan said on Tuesday that mainland China deployed a large number of warships and planes around the island following Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te’s visits to the US. According to The South China Morning Post, Taiwan has monitored the most significant Chinese military activity in the area since Chinaconducted a blockade drill around the island in October, which was a response to a speech from Lai.Taiwanese officials also said China had deployed a total of 90 naval and coast guard vessels stretching from the South China Sea to southern Japanese islands. The deployment is seen as an effort by China to show that it could not only blockade Taiwan but also impede the US and its allies in the region from intervening in any potential conflict.China typically announces when it conducts major military drills, but it has so far been silent on the current activity.When asked during a press briefing on Tuesday if China was conducting military exercises around Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, “I’d refer you to competent Chinese authorities for the specific question. What I can tell you is that the Taiwan question is China’s internal affair, and China will firmly defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Lukashenko Says Belarus Is Hosting Dozens of Russian Nuclear Weapons - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Belarus is hosting dozens of Russian nuclear weapons and is preparing to receive Russia’s new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, known as the Oreshnik.“I have deployed nuclear warheads here. Several dozen warheads. Many say that this is a joke and no one has deployed anything. Yes, we did,” Lukashenko said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.“And the fact that they say that this is a joke means that they have missed it. They overlooked how we brought them here,” Lukashenko added, suggesting he believes Western intelligence agencies didn’t track the deployment. Russian President Vladimir Putin first announced in 2023 that he would deploy nuclear weapons, a move he said was in response to Western provocations. He has compared the deployment to NATO’s nuclear sharing program, under which US nuclear warheads are deployed in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, and Turkey. Belarus has received nuclear-capable Iskander missiles, and the Russian military helped upgrade Belarusian fighter jets so they could carry nuclear warheads.Lukashenko is now asking for Russia to deploy the Oreshnik missile to Belarus and said there are about 30 locations where they could be stationed. “We are currently thinking about where to deploy this weapon. We have some sites where strategic nuclear weapons used to be deployed,” he said. Putin has said a conventionally armed Oreshnik could make nuclear weapons unnecessary since it can carry such a large payload and fire multiple warheads.
Ukraine Fires More US ATACMS Into Russia, Moscow Vows Response - The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had launched another attack on Russian territory with US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles.Russia’s TASS news agency reported that Ukraine “delivered a strike by six US-made ATACMS long-range ballistic missiles at the military airfield in Taganrog in southern Russia on the morning of December 11.” The report said two missiles were intercepted by air defenses, and the other four were deflected by electronic warfare.The Russian Defense Ministry said shrapnel from the missiles caused injuries. “There are injuries among the personnel as a result of the fall of missile fragments. There is no destruction while minor damage (shrapnel damage) was caused to two buildings on the airfield’s technical premises, three military motor vehicles and also civilian cars on a parking lot adjacent to the airfield,” the ministry said.The ministry also vowed there would be a response. “This attack by Western long-range weapons won’t be left unanswered, and corresponding measures will be taken,” it said. Last month, President Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russian territory despite Moscow making clear the step would risk nuclear escalation. Russian President Vladimir Putin formally changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine in response, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. In response to previous ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes in Russia, the Russian military launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine known as the Oreshnik. The missile was believed not to be carrying explosives since little damage was done, and Putin referred to it as a “test launch.” A strike with a conventionally armed Oreshnik could do major damage, as Putin has suggested the missile could replace nuclear weapons as Russia’s deterrent.
Orban Says Zelensky Rejected Proposal for a Christmas Truce - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Wednesday that he had proposed the idea of Ukraine and Russia establishing a Christmas truce, but it was rejected by Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelensky. “At the end of the Hungarian EU Presidency, we made new efforts for peace. We proposed a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner exchange,” Orban wrote on X. “It’s sad that President [Zelensky] clearly rejected and ruled this out today. We did what we could!” Orban didn’t specify how the proposal was presented or how Russia responded. His post on X was a response to Zelensky apparently taking a shot at the Hungarian leader for speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier in the day. “We all hope that [Orban] at least won’t call Assad in Moscow to listen to his hour-long lectures as well,” Zelensky wrote on X, referring to the recently deposed Syrian leader who fled to Moscow. “There can be no discussions about the war that Russia wages against Ukraine without Ukraine.” In Orban’s statement on the call with Putin, he said Hungary is “taking every possible diplomatic step to argue in favor of a ceasefire and [peace] talks.” The Kremlin said that during the call, Putin blamed Ukraine for the lack of a diplomatic solution to the war. “Vladimir Putin shared his fundamental views on the current developments surrounding Ukraine and the destructive policies of the Kiev regime, which continue to rule out the possibility of resolving the conflict peacefully,” the Kremlin said. Orban has been one of the few NATO leaders who has maintained contact with Putin, and he has consistently called for a ceasefire in Ukraine, angering other European Union nations.
NATO Chief Calls for Cold War-Level Military Spending - On Thursday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called for the alliance to significantly increase military spending up to Cold War levels and adopt a “wartime mindset.”“It is true that we spend more on defense now than we did a decade ago. But we are still spending far less than during the Cold War. Even though the threats to our freedom and security are just as big – if not bigger,” Rutte said in a speech in Brussels. “During the Cold War, Europeans spent far more than 3% of their GDP on defense.” Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, suggested Europe could increase military spending by making cuts from pensions and health services.“I know spending more on defense means spending less on other priorities. But it is only a little less,” Rutte said. “On average, European countries easily spend up to a quarter of their national income on pensions, health and social security systems. We need a small fraction of that money to make our defenses much stronger and to preserve our way of life.” Rutte said Europeans should tell their “banks and pension funds it is simply unacceptable that they refuse to invest in the defense industry. Defense is not in the same category as illicit drugs and pornography.”The NATO chief framed his demand for an increase in military spending as a way to prevent war and claimed Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are “hard at work to try to weaken North America and Europe.”Rutte, who replaced Jens Stoltenberg as the head of NATO in October, is also determined to continue the proxy war in Ukraine, saying recently that there should be less talk of peace and more focus on shipping weapons into the conflict.
France, Poland Discuss Sending Troops To Monitor Future Ukraine Ceasefire - On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk discussed the idea of sending troops to Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached, an idea reportedly favored by President-elect Donald Trump.Tusk said that while the idea of sending troops to Ukraine was discussed, Warsaw is not “not planning any such actions,” at least for the moment.A report from the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita claimed that France and Poland had been discussing the idea of establishing an international peacekeeping force comprised of 40,000 troops from around the world.However, a Polish official told POLITICO that Warsaw was “surprised” by the reported plan and said that any peacekeeping force should be under the UN or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump told Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he wanted European troops in Ukraine to monitor a potential future ceasefire deal. The president-elect also told them that he opposes Ukrainian entry into NATO but wants to see a strong, well-armed Ukraine.Any NATO deployment of troops into Ukraine would likely be a non-starter for Moscow since one of Russia’s primary motives for launching the invasion was over Ukraine’s alignment with the Western military alliance and its potential future membership. Zelensky has previously suggested he could temporarily cede territory to Russia if he gets security guarantees from NATO, another idea that Russia won’t go for.
Students protest against military recruitment at school in Leipzig, Germany --Germany’s Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) are aggressively recruiting war volunteers among young people. This is increasingly being met with resistance, as was shown recently at a school in Leipzig.Students in Leipzig protest against the Bundeswehr, October 2024 [Photo by Change.org]Two days before the planned Bundeswehr visit to Humboldt School in Leipzig at the end of October, several students staged a so-called “die-in” protest in their schoolyard. They lay down on the ground and played dead while a 16-year-old classmate spoke the following into a megaphone:Do you fancy going to the Eastern Front? And dying for Germany there? I, for one, am not up for it. I’m not up for lying in some trench at 18 and wondering: will I come out of this with my life or is it just a leg and my humanity that I’m losing? The day after tomorrow, the school has invited the Bundeswehr to visit. They are supposed to make this situation appealing to us. We are told that the Bundeswehr protects Germany and us and wants to bring peace. That’s bullshit! Whose interests are at stake when German weapons are used to kill in Palestine and Kurdistan? Whose freedom are we talking about when warplanes cross the Pacific?He was not able to finish, because a teacher snatched the megaphone from him. “Massive disruption of school peace” was the school management’s charge against the protest action. They threatened to expel the students involved. In doing so, the school management made itself the stooges of the military and the government. As reported by the Leipziger Volkszeitung (LVZ), which interviewed one of the students involved, he was “threatened with disciplinary action immediately after the protest, and in the following lesson his teacher brought up the incident again. He was then called in to see the head teacher: he was accused of having disturbed the peace at school.” The State Office for Schools and Education backed the head teacher, claiming that the students’ protest had disrupted “successful teaching and educational work,” and the school was allowed to take disciplinary action.A petition against the threat of expulsion, initiated by the group International Youth Leipzig, has received over 3,600 signatures. It states: “School is no place to advertise the fact that young people are dying on the front lines for German profit interests.” In other federal states, too, students have opposed the appearance of the Bundeswehr at their schools. Militarisation in Germany is becoming ever more apparent, especially with the growing presence of young Bundeswehr officers in schools and other educational institutions. In order to make a career and service in the Bundeswehr attractive to young people, their reservations about the military and war are to be undermined.
