week ending Jan 27

Fed to wind down emergency lending facility in March -- The emergency lending facility set up by the Federal Reserve to stem last spring's banking crisis will sunset starting in March.The Bank Term Fund Program, or BTFP, will stop making new loans on March 11, the central bank announced Wednesday night. Until then, banks and other depository institutions will still be able to borrow from the facility, albeit at a slightly higher interest rate.For the final weeks of the program, the Fed will put a floor on the program's interest rate that is equal to the interest rate on reserve balances, or IORB, on the day the advance is made. As of Wednesday, the BTFP rate — equal to the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points — is 4.88%, while the IORB rate is 5.4%."This rate adjustment ensures that the BTFP continues to support the goals of the program in the current interest rate environment," a press release from the Fed reads. "This change is effective immediately. All other terms of the program are unchanged."Advances come with terms of up to one year, giving banks an option to temporarily refinance their holdings into early 2025. All U.S. federally insured banks, savings associations and credit unions are eligible for using the facility, as are U.S. branches of foreign banks that are eligible for primary credit.The Fed set up the BTFP in response to a series of bank runs at large regional banks. The episode led to the rapid failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, as well as significant stress at several other similar sized institutions, including First Republic Bank, which failed several weeks later. Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act gives the Fed broad powers to lend to both banks and nonbanks in emergencies, but such facilities can only be granted during "unusual and exigent circumstances" and can only be authorized for one year at a time. Continuing the program would have required the Fed to determine that such circumstances continued to exist with at least five affirmative votes from the Board of Governors. By allowing the authorization to lapse, the Fed is formally acknowledging the end of the crisis — though it has been out of the public spotlight for months. The acute part of the episode largely ended after regulators took the twin measures of setting up the facility and announcing that uninsured depositors at Silicon Valley and Signature would be made whole. "During a period of stress last spring, the Bank Term Funding Program helped assure the stability of the banking system and provide support for the economy," the Fed's statement reads. "After March 11, banks and other depository institutions will continue to have ready access to the discount window to meet liquidity needs." The BTFP accepts the same collateral that can be pledged to the discount window, the Fed's last-resort lending facility. However, the BTFP accepts securities at their full par value, rather than their market value minus a set discount, or haircut. The terms allows banks to temporarily offload high-quality securities with unrealized losses. The Silicon Valley Bank run was triggered, in part, by the bank selling such assets at a loss to generate liquidity. Use of the facility has, at times, been dwarfed by other short-term funding sources, such as the Federal Home Loan Banks, which provide advances with more flexible terms. But use of the BTFP has risen steadily since it was set up, hitting $79 billion within the first month before climbing to $100 billion, where it sat for most of the summer and early fall. In recent months, Fed officials had been signaling that the facility's authorization would not be renewed. During that time, its use has picked up sharply, reaching $161 billion last week. Federal regulators have made emergency readiness a top priority in the wake of last spring's bank runs, issuing guidance on liquidity management and urging banks to test their ability to borrow from the Fed's discount window regularly. Earlier this month, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu called for a rule establishing a five-day liquidity requirement for large and midsize banks. "The characteristics of bank runs are changing. Banks and regulators need to adapt accordingly," Hsu said. "As the speed of banking and finance accelerates, so too does the need for better brakes to enable a safe and sound system."

“Effective Immediately,” Fed Shuts Down Arbitrage Opportunity with the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) by Wolf Richter -The Fed confirmed today in a press release at 7 PM EST that its infamous tool to deal with the March 2023 bank-panic and bank-liquidity crisis, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), will cease making new loans to banks, as scheduled, on March 11. Existing loans can continue for their term of up to one year. This decision was disclosed on January 9 by Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, at a panel appearance.What’s new – the funny part – is that the Fed also said that, “effective immediately,” it would shut down the arbitrage with which banks have been gaming the BTFP to make some extra bucks. We’ve been discussing this BTFP arbitrage for a while, including here with a chart. The whole thing was a hoot. The BTFP was conceived in all haste over a weekend in March 2023 and was announced on Sunday after two regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, had collapsed and were shut down by regulators on Friday, with visions of contagion turning this into a full-fledged financial crisis.But the BTFP had a fatal flaw: under certain conditions, the interest rate that the Fed charges on loans at the BTFP (the rate is market-based) could fall substantially below the interest rate the Fed pays on its reserve balances (the Fed sets this rate).And that’s exactly what happened starting early November during rate-cut mania. It opened up a riotous risk-free arbitrage opportunity that banks took advantage of.Today the Fed had had it with this deal and shut down the arbitrage for new loans “extended from now through program expiration.” In the press release, it says that the interest rate to borrow at the BTFP will be “no lower” than the interest rate on reserves. And with this change, the arbitrage becomes unprofitable for new loans. The press release:“As the program ends, the interest rate applicable to new BTFP loans has been adjusted such that the rate on new loans extended from now through program expiration will be no lower than the interest rate on reserve balances in effect on the day the loan is made.“This rate adjustment ensures that the BTFP continues to support the goals of the program in the current interest rate environment. This change is effective immediately. All other terms of the program are unchanged.”On the new BTFP term sheet released today, applicable to new loans, the rate calculation paragraph now reads (I marked the new language in bold; IORB = interest on reserve balances):“The rate for term advances will be the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points, provided that the rate may not be lower than the IORB rate in effect on the day the advance is made; the rate will be fixed for the term of the advance on the day the advance is made.When the worker bees at the Fed hashed out the terms for the BTFP over the weekend (eating pizza and sleeping on the floor?), they overlooked the possibility that the market-based interest rate to borrow at the BTFP – the one-year overnight index swap rate, plus 10 basis points – could fall substantially below the Fed-set interest rate that banks earn on their reserve balances.In March 2023, the rate at the BTFP was close to the rate the Fed paid on reserves. But during rate-cut mania starting in early November, Treasury yields from one-year on up plunged, and related yields plunged in parallel. By mid-December, banks could borrow at the BTFP below 4.8%, and then leave the cash in their reserve accounts at the Fed and earn 5.40%. Risk free, hassle-free income for nothing. From July through October, the BTFP balance was around $110 billion. But at the beginning of November, it began to surge. Last week, it jumped by $14 billion. Since November 1, it has jumped by nearly 50%, or by $52 billion, to $161 billion. On Thursday, the Fed will release the new figures through Wednesday, and the balance likely jumped again. But that should be the last increase in the BTFP balance because the door to make money on this circus has effectively closed now:

Key Federal Reserve Inflation Rate's Slide Puts March Rate Cut In Play - The primary Federal Reserve inflation rate, the core PCE price index, showed that price pressures cooled more than expected in December, keeping a March rate cut on the table. The S&P 500 fell slightly on Friday afternoon, following another record closing high on Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index rose 0.2% in December, in line with forecasts. The 12-month headline inflation rate held at 2.6%, below 2.7% predictions.Typically, Federal Reserve decision-making puts more weight on core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in December, matching forecasts. However, the core 12-month inflation rate eased to 2.9% from 3.2% in November, undercutting Wall Street expectations of 3% core inflation.Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said policymakers wanted to see six months of tame inflation data to be sure that the disinflationary trend isn't fleeting. On a six-month annualized basis, core PCE inflation is running at a 1.86% annualized rate, slightly below the Fed's 2% inflation target.Over the past three months, core inflation is running at just a 1.5% annualized rate.The PCE price index is released with the Commerce Department's monthly personal income and outlays report. Personal income rose 0.3% on the month, as expected. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.7% in December, well above forecasts of a solid 0.4% rise.After the December PCE report, market pricing showed 47% odds that the first rate cut will come at the March 20 meeting. That was up from 41% on Wednesday, before Thursday's Q4 GDP report, which showed core PCE inflation rising at a 2% annualized rate for the second straight quarter. Coming as GDP grew a faster-than-expected 3.3%, the tame inflation data indicates that the economy is enjoying a pretty ideal combination of solid growth and declining inflation.If the Federal Reserve doesn't cut in March, markets see overwhelming odds (90%) that it will happen on May 1. For the full year, markets are pricing in 85% odds of at least 1.25 percentage points in rate cuts, and a pretty good chance (53%) of an extra quarter-point reduction.Starting late in 2022, Federal Reserve chair Powell shifted the inflation focus to core PCE services excluding housing, or supercore services. That was in keeping with the Fed's view that the tight labor market and elevated wage growth had been at the root of stubbornly high inflation. Wages make up a high percentage of costs for service businesses. Therefore, supercore services inflation should ease as wage pressures moderate.Prices for these core nonhousing services, including health care, haircuts and hospitality, rose 0.28% on the month, after tame gains of 0.14% and 0.11% the prior two months. Still, the 12-month supercore services inflation rate eased to 3.3% from 3.5% the prior month.So far the disinflationary trend appears broad-based, giving assurance to the Fed that a snapback in price pressures is unlikely.

A Fed Whistleblower Reveals Efforts to Silence Him 30 Years Ago - By Pam and Russ Martens - The U.S. Department of Justice needs to immediately appoint an independent Special Counsel to investigate how long and in how many ways the U.S. Central Bank (the Federal Reserve or simply “the Fed”) has been functioning as a protection racket for Wall Street mega banks. We’ll get to the latest revelation about the Fed bullying and intimidating a Fed official in a moment, but first some necessary background. In 2013 the American people learned that Carmen Segarra had been a bank examiner with a law degree at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, one of Wall Street’s key regulators. Segarra charged in a Federal lawsuit that she was bullied by colleagues to change her negative examination of the powerful Wall Street mega bank, Goldman Sachs. Segarra detailed how her colleagues also obstructed and interfered with her investigation. When she refused to alter her findings, she was terminated in retaliation and escorted from the Fed premises, according to her lawsuit. Unfortunately for the New York Fed, however, the secret tape recordings that Segarra had made to document the matter, ended up going viral. Then there was the 2015 case of the Wall Street Journal reporter, Pedro da Costa, asking Fed Chair Janet Yellen an uncomfortable question about Fed leaks of confidential information and finding himself without a job. According to a deep dive by Max Moran, writing for The American Prospect, the individual who cracks the whip at the Fed to keep reporters in line is Michelle Smith, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Chief of Staff and the woman “who has served every Fed Chair of the last 30 years in some capacity—Powell, Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan.” Then there was the stench around former Fed Chair Janet Yellen stepping down as Fed Chair and embarking on a multi-million dollar money grab dressed up as speaking fees at the banks regulated by the Fed. (See Janet Yellen’s Cash Haul of $7 Million Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg; She Failed to Report Her Wall Street Speaking Fees from JPMorgan and Others in 2018.) And, finally, more than two years after the former President of the Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, was exposed as trading like a hedge fund kingpin while sitting on confidential Fed information, there has still been no investigative findings in this matter shared with the American people by the U.S. Department of Justice; the Securities and Exchange Commission; or the Fed’s Inspector General. Last month, financial writer Lynn Parramore conducted an interview for the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) with two former Federal Reserve Bank employees: Walker Todd, a former attorney and legal officer at the New York Fed and a former legal and research officer at the Cleveland Fed; and Bill Bergman, a Clinical Instructor in Finance for Loyola University who worked previously at the Chicago Fed. During the interview, Todd stuns with this revelation: “I had the misfortune of drafting an article for publication by the Cleveland Fed, which came out in ’93, about the emergency lending provisions of FDICIA [Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act]. I explained how this came about. The sense of the provision was a section that said that the Fed was able to make emergency loans based on any collateral satisfactory to it – which could be just about anything. Changing that provision allowed securities firms to borrow directly from the Fed for the first time in history because the Fed discount window was originally set up to make loans only on types of collateral eligible for discount — and investment securities most definitely were not eligible for discount. “The Board staff turned out to be very unhappy with the submission of this article and kept intervening with my management to try to block publication. I was required to do 21 drafts over a year, which impeded my doing anything else. Eventually, it was published in mostly the same form in which I had originally submitted it, and at the last moment, a senior Board staffer called the research department at the Cleveland Fed to order them to stop the presses. But they couldn’t, because the president and research director were out of the office and couldn’t be reached. So it went out the door. That was it. I was given an unfavorable rating for the year and I left the next year.” It’s all enough to make Americans sick to their stomachs at how their democracy has been strong-armed, bribed and bullied into a dystopian Wall Street casino. But is it enough to make Americans pick up their phones, call their U.S. Senators, and demand the appointment of a genuinely independent Special Counsel?

Robert Kaplan Was Heavily Trading on May 1, 2020; One Day After a Fed Blackout Period and the Same Day He Made a Shocking Prediction on TV - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 24, 2024 ~To read main stream media headlines, one would think that the Federal Reserve Inspector General’s Office has exonerated former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan of any legal action for trading like a hedge fund kingpin while he was privy to insider information at the Fed.In fact, all that the Inspector General’s report has cleared Kaplan of is this: “we did not find that his trading activities violated laws, rules, regulations, or policies related to trading activities as investigated by our office.”What the Inspector General did not investigate is everything that a real insider trading investigation would have encompassed. It did not investigate if Kaplan was shorting the market with his $1 million plus trades in and out of S&P futures contracts during a declared National Emergency over the COVID pandemic while making market diving predictions on TV; it did not investigate how big ticket trading by a Fed insider got past the compliance department of the brokerage firm Kaplan was using to transact his trades, which may have been the notorious Goldman Sachs; it did not investigate if that brokerage firm was cloning Kaplan’s trades (because he was a Fed insider) for its own profit and benefit.In short, the Fed Inspector General didn’t do anything that a real investigator at the Securities and Exchange Commission would have done and its report is silent on whether it made a referral to the SEC or the Justice Department in this matter. What the Inspector General did do was to sit on this investigation for more than two years and then deliver a report so hopelessly inept that it provided the long missing dates that Kaplan traded but not the essential information as to whether those trades were purchases or sales. (Kaplan had been allowed by the Fed to evade the requiredreporting of specific dates for each sale and each purchase of a security for the entirefive years he filed his financial disclosure forms at the Dallas Fed. See Kaplan’s financial disclosure forms from 2015 through 2020 here.) As a former CPA and Goldman Sachs veteran, Kaplan knew or should have known that his financial disclosure forms were breaking Fed rules as well as common sense rules for financial disclosure of trading activities.In 2020, during the worst health crisis in more than a hundred years in the United States, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, then a voting member of the FOMC, was frequently throwing trading fuel on a deepening economic meltdown in his print media interviews. Also in 2020, Kaplan was trading in and out of S&P 500 futures, according to his own financial disclosure forms. (Trading in S&P 500 futures is a market-timing device used by hedge funds and day traders. No individual with market-moving information at the Federal Reserve should ever be allowed to use such a device.)Kaplan gave a total of 68 interviews with the press in 2020, a stunning number and a smoking gun for a man also trading S&P 500 futures.Twice in the span of six days in May of 2020, Kaplan predicted that unemployment was going to surge to 20 percent. That’s a very bold and apocalyptic call that would have benefited short sellers. According to the Congressional Research Service, the maximum unemployment rate in 2020 topped out at 14.8 percent in April.Kaplan first made the 20 percent unemployment prediction on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo, the cable TV show, on May 1, 2020. When the interview started, around 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow futures were down 450 points. By the time Kaplan finished speaking, Dow futures had dropped another 10 points. The Dow closed the day down 622 points. You can watch the program here. In addition to the 20 percent unemployment prediction, Kaplan also described the economic outlook in the interview as an “historic contraction,” “very severe,” and noted that the consumer (which represents two-thirds of GDP growth in the U.S.) had “suffered a body blow.” Now we learn from the Fed Inspector General’s report that on the very day Kaplan was providing fuel for short sellers on TV, he was also actively trading himself on May 1, 2020. Below is a screen shot from the Inspector General’s report for the month of May 2020, showing Kaplan’s trading. According to his previously filed financial disclosure forms, each trade was in excess of $1 million.

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.3% Annualized Rate in Q4 - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors were food services and accommodations as well as health care. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products) and recreational goods and vehicles (led by computer software). Within exports, both goods (led by petroleum) and services (led by financial services) increased. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected increases in compensation of state and local government employees and investment in structures. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in intellectual property products, structures, and equipment. Within federal government spending, the increase was led by nondefense spending. The increase in inventory investment was led by wholesale trade industries. Within residential fixed investment, the increase reflected an increase in new residential structures that was partly offset by a decrease in brokers' commissions. Within imports, the increase primarily reflected an increase in services (led by travel). Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected slowdowns in private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending. Imports decelerated. PCE increased at a 2.8% annual rate, and residential investment increased at a 1.1% rate. The advance Q3 GDP report, with 3.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.

Another solid GDP report – James Hamilton -The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That growth brings the level of GDP 3.1% above the value a year ago. Those numbers are right at the historical average GDP growth over the last 70 years of 3.1%, and well above the 2% average over the last 20 years. The year 2023 ended up far better than many people expected.Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2023:Q4, with the historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter.The strong growth of the last two quarters brought put the Econbrowser recession indicator index all the way down to 0.9%. The current U.S. expansion has now continued for 3-1/2 years, despite hitting a rough patch in the first half of 2022.GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on the GDP numbers that were publicly available as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2023:Q3 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index.Inventory accumulation contributed the the strong Q3 numbers. By contrast, Q4 all comes from growth in final sales. Even residential fixed investment, which we might have expected to bear the brunt of the Fed’s tightening moves, continues to make a small positive contribution to GDP growth.The year-over-year inflation rate as measured by the implicit PCE deflator is still above where the Fed wants it. But it’s been coming down, and if we were judging just by the 6-month or 3-month rate, we’d say mission accomplished. Three measures of the annual inflation rate. Top panel: 100 times the year-over-year change in the natural logarithm of the implicit price deflator on personal consumption expenditures. Middle panel: 200 times the 6-month change. Bottom panel: 400 times the 3-month change. Blue lines correspond to a 2% inflation rate. So far, so good.

The Year of the Recession that Didn’t Come: Our Drunken Sailors Partied & Spent, GDP Jumped - The year 2023 was supposed to be the year of the recession. It was the most anticipated recession ever, the most hoped-for recession. Starting in 2022 with the initial rate hikes, the “Leading Economic Index” predicted a recession for late 2022; and when that didn’t come, for early 2023; and when that didn’t come, for mid-2023, and then late 2023, and then early 2024… (we’ve shredded the LEI’s predictions here). A year ago, even the Fed staff predicted a recession for late 2023. You get the drift: the Recession that Didn’t Come. It didn’t come because our Drunken Sailors got together and partied – consumers, governments, and even businesses. They didn’t want to have any part of this recession. “Real GDP” in Q4 (adjusted for inflation via 2017 dollars) jumped by an annualized rate of 3.3% from Q3, after the 4.9% jump in Q3, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. All major categories pulled in the right direction (adjusted for inflation):

• Consumer spending (69% of GDP): +2.8%.
• Gross private investment (18% of GDP): +2.1%.
• Government consumption and investment (17% of GDP): +3.3%.
• Private inventory investment increased faster and added to GDP.
• The trade deficit (“net exports”) got less horrible and was a smaller drag on GDP.

“Real” GDP in dollar terms, adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2017 dollars, was $22.7 trillion annualized. “Current-dollar” GDP (“nominal” GDP, not adjusted for inflation and expressed in current dollars) jumped by 4.8%, to $27.9 trillion annualized. This $27.9 trillion represents the actual size of the US economy, measured in today’s dollars. Annual “real” GDP (adjusted for inflation) grew by 2.5% in 2023, right in the range before the pandemic and a tad above the 10-year average before the pandemic (2.3%): Consumer spending on goods and services rose by 2.8% in Q4 from Q3, annualized and adjusted for inflation.

• Spending on goods rose by 3.8%, including 4.6% for durable goods, which we’ve seen in the surge in motor vehicle sales).
• Spending on services rose by 2.4%.

Gross private domestic investment rose by 2.1%, after the 10% spike in Q3. Of which: Fixed investment (part of gross private domestic investment): +1.7%, of which:

• Residential fixed investment: +1.1%.
• Nonresidential fixed investments: +1.9%:
  • Structures: +3.2%.
  • Equipment: -+1.0%%.
  • Intellectual property products (software, movies, etc.): +2.1%.

Government consumption and investment rose by 3.3%, the sixth quarter in a row of steep increases. This does not include transfer payments and other direct payments to consumers (stimulus payments, unemployment payments, Social Security payments, etc.), which are counted in GDP when consumers and businesses spend or invest these funds.The most reckless drunken sailor, the federal government, is blowing vast sums in every direction, relentlessly running up gigantic deficits and piling them on its $34 trillion mountain of debt.

• Federal government: +2.5% (national defense +0.9%, nondefense +4.6%), on top of the 7.1% spike in Q3
• State and local governments: +3.7%.

The Trade Deficit (“net exports”) in goods & services got a little less horrible:

• Exports: +6.3%.
• Imports: +1.9%.

Exports add to GDP. Imports subtract from GDP. Exports are much smaller in dollars than imports (hence the trade deficit, or negative “net exports”).

Business Cycle Indicators at January’s End – Menzie Chinn -On the back of yesterday’s GDP release (discussed by Jim), real personal consumption continues to rise, beating consensus (+0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), while nominal personal income hits consensus at +0.3%. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 1/3 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 2nd release (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd release incorporating comprehensive revisions, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (1/2/2024 release), and author’s calculations.Aside from industrial production, it’s hard to see the downturn in data reported thus far. For data pertaining to the new year, the Lewis-Mertens-Stock NY Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI) for the week ending January 20, the reading stands at 1.90%. The Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index reads -0.10%. If trend US GDP is 2%, then this implies 1.90% growth as well.

Biden signs stopgap funding bill to keep government open into March - President Biden last Friday signed a stopgap funding bill that will keep the government open into early March and buy lawmakers time to finish the formal appropriations process. Biden signed the two-step continuing resolution a day after Congress voted to send the legislation to the president’s desk. The bill punts the government funding deadline to March 1 for four appropriations bills, and it extends the deadline for eight others until March 8. The House voted 314-108 to clear the stopgap measure Thursday, hours after the Senate approved the bill. The legislation is the third short-term spending bill Congress has approved in fiscal 2024. Passage of the stopgap marks a cleared hurdle for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who cut a deal with other congressional leaders to avert a shutdown and, subsequently, was able to sell the proposal to enough members in his conference to get it over the finish line. But the Speaker had to rely heavily on Democratic support after conservatives staked their opposition, criticizing the proposal for a lack of spending cuts and border security policy. Only two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — voted against the measure. Johnson brought the legislation to the floor under suspension of the rules, a fast-track process that avoids having to first approve a rule — which conservatives likely would have blocked — but also requires two-thirds support for passage, meaning it must be bipartisan. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted in October in part for making a similar decision.

McCarthy: Freedom Caucus has ‘stopped Republicans from being able to govern’ -Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) accused the House Freedom Caucus of preventing the Republican majority from governing. Speaking to Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo Monday morning, McCarthy the ousted former Speaker who resigned from Congress at the end of December, said questions about why Republicans opted to “kick the can down the road” and avert a government shutdown should be directed at the hard-line conservative group. The stopgap funding measure passed last week extends government funding levels originally set under Democratic control until March 1 and March 8. “You really should be asking the Freedom Caucus. They are the ones who have stopped the Republicans from being able to govern,” McCarthy said. The Freedom Caucus opposed the continuing resolution (CR) to extend government funding last week, which Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said was necessary to complete work on regular full-year spending bills. But McCarthy’s comment was an apparent reference to members of the group and their allies opposing full-year funding deals that House GOP leadership struck with Democrats — such as a debt ceiling deal McCarthy struck last year — and blocking several funding measures from coming to the House floor over the past year, preventing the slim House GOP majority from approving some funding measures sooner. “What they are doing is they’re locking in the Democratic policies,” McCarthy said. “They’re actually spending more money now than if we go to the debt ceiling numbers. That would mean government would spend less, we could put Republican policies in. But they continue to stymie this majority to be able to do anything.” The Freedom Caucus opposes the top-line spending number that Johnson struck with Democrats and the White House, which is largely in line with the debt ceiling deal that McCarthy struck with Democrats that they did not think was low enough. The top-line agreement includes a $1.59 trillion base top line, a number Johnson and McCarthy have highlighted. But it also includes around $69 billion in budget tweaks to plus-up nondefense dollars for most of fiscal 2024, which enraged the Freedom Caucus. Johnson, meanwhile, has touted additional funding clawbacks he secured beyond the original McCarthy agreement. Freedom Caucus leadership had also made a last-minute pitch to Johnson last week to try to attach border and migration policies to the stopgap measure, which he rejected. Just more than half of House Republicans voted with Democrats last week to extend part of government funding to March 1 and the rest until March 8. McCarthy, notably, was forced out of the Speakership after pushing through a continuing resolution at the end of September. “It really comes down to, what’s a true conservative? And I look for Ronald Reagan. A conservative is one that can actually govern in a conservative way,” McCarthy said. “But what you’re finding now is, what they’re doing is doing nothing but locks in Democratic Pelosi policies.”

Biden speaks with Netanyahu after Israeli leader rejects Palestinian state - President Biden spoke Friday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time in nearly a month and amid growing frustration in the White House with the Israeli leader over the course of the war against Hamas. The call came following remarks by Netanyahu rejecting the creation of a Palestinian state that the U.S. has put as a priority goal in supporting Israel’s war against Hamas over the Oct. 7 terrorist attack. A White House pool report said Biden discussed the latest developments in Israel and Gaza with Netanyahu. An official readout of the call is expected to be issued later. The last known call between the two leaders was Dec. 23. Israel’s leaders have said its more than three-month military operation against Hamas is to destroy its ability to threaten Israel militarily and remove it from governing the narrow territory of the Gaza Strip. The U.S. has sought to lay the groundwork for a post-war scenario, after Hamas’s destruction, that would include new efforts to establish a Palestinian state and unite Gaza with the Palestinian Authority-controlled West Bank. Netanyahu has long been viewed as obstructing efforts to create a Palestinian state and is facing increasing pressure over his failure to prevent Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and his handling of the war. ​​”This is not a new comment by Prime Minister Netanyahu,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters in response to a question about the prime minister’s remarks. “We obviously see it differently. We believe that the Palestinians have every right to live in an independent state with peace and security. And the president and his team is going to continue to work on that.” The president has stood against calls for Israel to agree to a cease-fire but is facing increasing pressure from Democrats in Congress — including from strong supporters of Israel — over U.S. military assistance to Israel seen as contributing to Palestinian deaths.

Netanyahu Doubles Down on Opposition to Palestinian State After Call With Biden - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated his opposition to a Palestinian state after holding a phone call with President Biden on Friday, the first conversation between the two leaders in nearly a month.After the phone call, Biden said the idea of a two-state solution being reached while Netanyahu was still in power was not impossible and suggested he might go for an arrangement where the Palestinian state wouldn’t have a military. But in subsequent statements, Netanyahu again made clear he was totally opposed to the idea of a Palestinian state.“I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over the entire area in the west of Jordan – and this is contrary to a Palestinian state,” Netanyahu wrote in an X post on Saturday. Netanyahu again reiterated his opposition to a Palestinian state on Sunday. “My insistence is what has prevented — over the years — the establishment of a Palestinian state that would have constituted an existential danger to Israel,” he said. “As long as I am prime minister, I will continue to strongly insist on this.”Netanyahu’s political career is in peril as polling shows the majority of Israelis want him to resign after the war is over, giving him the incentive to continue the Gaza slaughter.According to Israeli media, to gain more political support, Netanyahu haspitched himself to fellow Likud party members as the only one who can prevent a Palestinian state and as someone who can handle the Americans.The Biden administration claims it’s opposed to Netanyahu’s plans to occupy Gaza indefinitely and prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, but the US continues to provide unconditional military aid and political support for the onslaught.

Protests in San Francisco and on Oakland docks against genocide in Gaza - On January 13, over 1,000 protesters blocked operations at the Port of Oakland as part of the broader day of action that saw protests of over 100,000 in Washington D.C. and half a million in London against the ongoing genocide in Gaza. The Oakland demonstrators targeted the port to oppose the shipment of military equipment to Israel. Beginning before dawn, they successfully halted both the morning and afternoon shifts. Jimmy Salameh, a dockworker, told the Arab Resource and Organizing Center: “I’ve worked at the port for ten years, and I can say for a fact that there was no business as usual out here today. How could there be in the middle of a genocide? I couldn’t be prouder of the people who turned out today to raise their voice against the war on Gaza and to demand that this port isn't used for military purposes.” The next day an estimated 25,000 protesters demonstrated outside San Francisco city hall and marched down Market Street, shutting down traffic. On January 9, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors became the largest municipal body to pass a resolution demanding a ceasefire, following earlier Bay Area cities Oakland and Richmond. The San Francisco supervisors drafted a toothless document which aims to keep mass anger against the Israeli genocide in Gaza confined in the straitjacket of the Democratic Party. The one-paragraph seven-bullet-point resolution will do nothing to stop the genocide in Gaza, but rather is aimed providing a pressure-release valve to counter the growing popular opposition to Israel’s atrocities. The resolution calls for “a sustained cease-fire, the provision of lifesaving humanitarian aid in Gaza and the release of all hostages.” However, the board proposes to do this through pressuring the Biden administration and Congress, under conditions where both continue to support the Israeli war on Gaza. It condemns “anti-Semitic, anti-Palestinian, Islamophobic, xenophobic rhetoric and attacks,” lumping them all together and perpetuating the myth that there has been a fresh wave of antisemitic attacks in the US. It also “condemns Hamas's attack on civilians that resulted in so much horror and 1,200 deaths on Oct. 7.,” without pointing to the decades-long history of the oppression of the Palestinian people by the State of Israel through de facto imprisonment in the Gaza Strip, violent airstrikes and other attacks, and the cutoff of food, fuel, communications and medical care.

Tempers flare over Israel-Palestine in California Senate debate - Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) pressed her fellow Senate candidates over Middle East policy in a debate Monday, pushing Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) to back a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war — something he declined to do. Lee called the Israeli military operation in Gaza “counterproductive to Israeli security” and said the conflict could “spiral out of control.” “I voted against the Iraq [War] authorization,” Lee said. “I said then, and I’m saying now, it could spiral out of control,” Lee said. “You see what’s happening. It’s escalating in the region. We have to make sure that our national security is also protected. In fact, as this war escalates, as the Arab nations pull back, then what do we have? We do not have a path to Israeli security, nor do we have a path to a Palestinian state.” The topic sparked a fierce debate among the top four candidates in the Senate primary, which also includes Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif) and Republican candidate Steve Garvey. Lee and Porter have both backed a cease-fire in the war, while Schiff and Garvey have refused.

UK Has Joined US In Expanding Its Spy Drone Flights Over Gaza --Previously we featured analysis pointing out that the West risks falling into an 'escalation trap' in Gaza and the region. Certainly the Israeli army (IDF) finds itself in a quagmire to some extent in Gaza, given the extreme difficulty of grueling urban combat. It's already been long known that the US has sent MQ-9 Reaper drones to collect intelligence over Gaza, as part of assistance to the IDF and Mossad. These flights have reportedly increased as Washington has gotten more involved in an advisory capacity. But fresh investigative reporting from Declassified UK shows that Britain's role has expanded as well."The UK military has flown 50 surveillance missions over Gaza since December, it can be revealed," Declassified UK writes. "The flights have taken off from Britain’s controversial air base on Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, and averaged around one a day since the beginning of December."The report documents that the surveillance flights are near daily at this point, with the Shadow R1 being the main drone of choice. The aircraft is manufactured by US company Raytheon, and another £110m contract has recently been awarded. Data collected by the independent UK media outlet shows that most flights last an average of six hours, amid increasingly busy skies over the Gaza Strip. While Hamas has a variety and likely thousands of surface-to-surface rockets that it continues to use against Israel, the group appears to lack sophisticated anti-air missiles. Otherwise, it might be expected that US, UK, or Israeli drones might have been shot down by now.

US Prepares for Open-Ended War Against the Houthis in Yemen - US officials told The Washington Post on Saturday that the Biden administration is planning for a “sustained military campaign” against the Houthis in Yemen even as over a week of near-daily bombing has done nothing to deter the group and has only dramatically escalated the situation.The officials could not put any timeline on how long the conflict will last, only saying they don’t expect it to drag on for “years,” like the US wars in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. The report said the officials acknowledged they can not identify an “end date or provide an estimate for when the Yemenis’ military capability will be adequately diminished.”Some US officials are worried the plans for an open-ended conflict against the Houthis will shatter the fragile truce between warring factions in Yemen, which includes a US-backed Saudi/UAE-led coalition. So far, Riyadh has urged restraint and distanced itself from the US’s anti-Houthi operations.The US-backed Saudi-led war against the Houthis killed at least 377,000 people between 2015 and 2022, according to the UN. More than half died of disease and starvation caused by the brutal bombing campaign and blockade. Most Yemenis are still reliant on aid due to the war, and the new US operations have already disrupted some relief efforts.For their part, the Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have welcomed the direct war with the US, saying it will only make them stronger. “We praise god for this great blessing and great honor — for us to be in a direct confrontation with Israel and America,” said Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.Before the US began bombing the Houthis, Ansar Allah officials made clear they would only stop attacking Israeli-linked commercial shipping if the onslaught on Gaza ended. Instead of pressuring Israel to end the slaughter in Gaza, President Biden chose escalation, and now the Houthis are targeting US commercial shipping, and several US merchant vessels have been hit with missiles. President Biden acknowledged his strikes on the Houthis were ineffective but vowed they would continue anyway. When asked by a reporter if the attacks were working, Biden said, “Well, when you say ‘working’ — are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes.” Since the strikes started on January 12, the US has bombed Yemen seven times. Bloomberg reported on Friday that the US and the UK were exploring ways to step up the campaign against the Houthis, signaling the strikes will intensify.

US and UK Launch More Strikes in Yemen as US Names New War Against the Houthis - The US and the UK launched more strikes against the Houthis in Yemen on Monday as the US military named its new war against the Yemeni group“Operation Poseidon Archer.” The strikes marked the eighth time the US has bombed Yemen since January 12 and the second time the British joined in. President Biden continues to order strikes after acknowledging they were not “working” to stop the Houthis, and the US is planning for an open-ended conflict. A correspondent for Al Mayadeen reported attacks in several areas in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and its surroundings. The US and the UK released a joint statement saying the strikes were launched against eight Houthi targets. “Today, the militaries of the United States and United Kingdom, at the direction of their respective governments with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, conducted an additional round of proportionate and necessary strikes against 8 Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the Houthis’ continued attacks against international and commercial shipping as well as naval vessels transiting the Red Sea,” the statement said.The new bombing campaign has dramatically escalated the situation in the region as the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, are now targeting American commercial vessels, and many more shipping companies have suspended transits through the Red Sea. The Houthis have vowed they won’t back down and say the only way they’ll stop is if the Israeli slaughter in Gaza ends.“No matter how much they bomb, our military operations against Israel will continue until the genocide crimes in Gaza are stopped and food, medicine, and fuel are allowed to enter its besieged population,” Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau, wrote on X.In another post, al-Bukhaiti said the US and British attacks will “only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities towards the oppressed in Gaza.” Both the US and the UK have supported a Saudi/UAE-led coalition against the Houthis since 2015 in a brutal conflict that killed 377,000 people,according to UN numbers. Since April 2022, a fragile ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis has held relatively well, and the new US strikes risk shattering that peace, although so far, Riyadh has distanced itself from the operations.

Investigation Reveals Former al-Qaeda Members Are Part of US-Backed Yemeni Government Forces - An investigation from BBC has revealed that the UAE recruited al-Qaeda members who now work for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a Yemeni southern separatist group that is part of the US and Saudi-backed Yemeni government.The UAE joined Saudi Arabia in invading Yemen in 2015 to fight the Houthis, who are officially known as Ansar Allah. The US threw its weight behind the Saudi/UAE coalition, and previous reporting revealed the coalition had recruited al-Qaeda fighters to join its ranks over the years. The new BBC investigation cited a document obtained by a whistleblower that revealed 11 former members of al-Qaeda now work in the STC, which wishes to separate north and south Yemen, restoring the borders before Yemen unified in 1990. Yemeni sources told BBC that a former senior al-Qaeda official and suspect in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole, Nasser al-Shiba, is now a commander in an STC military unit. The STC is part of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which was formed in 2022 when the Saudis reached a ceasefire with the Houthis and gave up on reinstating former President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.The STC’s leader, Aidarus al-Zubaidi, is the vice president of the PLC, which the US views as the legitimate government in Yemen. After President Biden began striking the Houthis in Yemen over their attacks on Israel-linked commercial shipping, al-Zubaidi called for US support for a ground campaign against Ansar Allah. “Ground forces must be supported on the ground, and these forces belong to the legitimate government,” he said last week. “These forces are the ones who can achieve a victory on the ground, because strong strikes without ground operations are useless.”There’s no indication yet that the US is looking to back a new ground campaign against the Houthis, but the situation continues to escalate. The US has bombed Yemen eight times now since January 12, and US officialssay they’re planning for an open-ended war. The Houthis were previously a partner of the US in the fight against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In January 2015, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US had “forged ties” with the Houthis as part of a strategy to “maintain its fight against a key branch of al-Qaeda.” A few months later, in March 2015, the Obama administration announced it was backing the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis.

Biden Has Started Another US War -- Caitlin Johnstone - The Washington Post has an article out titled “As Houthis vow to fight on, U.S. prepares for sustained campaign,” with “sustained campaign” being empire-speak for a new American war. “The Biden administration is crafting plans for a sustained military campaign targeting the Houthis in Yemen after 10 days of strikes failed to halt the group’s attacks on maritime commerce, stoking concern among some officials that an open-ended operation could derail the war-ravaged country’s fragile peace and pull Washington into another unpredictable Middle Eastern conflict,” the Post reports.The Post acknowledges that “sustained military campaign” means “war” in the ninth paragraph of the article, saying the anonymous US officials cited in the report “don’t expect that the operation will stretch on for years like previous U.S. wars in Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria.” Which is about as reassuring as a pyromaniac saying he doesn’t expect he’ll be burning down any more houses like all those other houses he’s burned down.This bizarre refusal to just call a war a war also appeared in a recent press conference with Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh, who acted shocked and aghast that reporters would even ask if repeatedly bombing a country would qualify as being at war with them. “Is it now fair to say that the U.S. is at war in Yemen?” Singh was asked by a Reuters reporter on Thursday. “No, we don’t seek war,” Singh replied. “We don’t think that we are at war. We don’t want to see a regional war.” In a follow-up several questions later, Singh was asked by a reporter from Politico, “You said that we are not at war with the Houthis, but if — you know, this tit-for-tat bombing — we’ve bombed them five times now. So if this isn’t war, can you just explain this a little — a little bit more to us? If this isn’t war, what is war?” “Sure, Lara, sure, great question, I just wasn’t expecting it phrased exactly that way,” Singh replied with a laugh and a smirk. “Look, we are — we do not seek war. We are — we do not — we are not at war with the Houthis. In terms of a definition, I think that would be more of a clear declaration from the United States. But again, what we are doing and the actions that we are taking are defensive in nature.” It is worth noting that since that Thursday press conference the number of US strikes on Yemen has increased from five to seven as of this writing. It is also worth noting here that, per Singh’s absurd definition, the US has not been at war since the end of WWII, as there has not been a “clear declaration of war” since June 5, 1942. The only wars the US has officially declared through congress in accordance with its own constitution have been the War of 1812, the Mexican-American War, the Spanish-American War, and the two world wars. If you go by this definition the US is among the more peaceful nations in the world, since it hasn’t been at war in eight decades. In reality the US is the single most warlike and murderous nation of modern times with wars of aggression that have killed millions and displaced tens of millions just in the 21st century alone, and plays some role in most of the world’s major international conflicts.

Lawmakers Push Funding To Replace The Ultra-Expensive Weapons Used In Yemen -- As the White House has started an open-ended and unauthorized war in Yemen, some members of Congress are pushing for legislation that would provide funding to replace the munitions dropped on the Middle East’s poorest nation. Politico reports, "As American warships burn through expensive missiles against Houthi targets in the Red Sea and Yemen, lawmakers, lobbyists, and the Navy are angling to use a multibillion-dollar national security supplemental to replenish the military’s inventory of munitions."In November, the Houthis announced that Yemeni forces would target Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea until Tel Aviv ends its military campaign in Gaza. Two weeks ago, President Joe Biden, without consulting Congress, authorized strikes on the Houthis. In response, the Houthis began targeting American-linked shipping transiting the region. The White House is ordering attacks on Yemen nearly every day. However, the White House claims it is not at war with Yemen, and it does not need Congressional authorization for the operations. Biden’s war in Yemen could drag on for some time. US officials told the Washington Post the administration has "no end date" and "little exit strategy" for its military operations in Yemen. President Biden has admitted that the strikes are not deterring the Houthi attacks. Additionally, the US operations against Yemen are expensive. Washington has combated drone and missile attacks from Yemen on ships in the Red Sea by using expensive interceptors to down the inexpensive Houthi munitions. The White House has largely relied on ship-fired Tomahawks to hit targets in Yemen. Some lawmakers worry the operations against the Houthis will impact Wasington’s ability to dominate the globe. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said fighting in Yemen means Congress needs to add further spending for munitions to a supplemental military funding package. "As I’ve warned for weeks, using million-dollar missiles to defend against thousand-dollar drones strains an already insufficient inventory of long-range capabilities," he added. "The supplemental is our chance to expand our capacity to meet the national security challenges we face."Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) argued that additional missiles are needed to confront China. "We’re looking — one of the parts of the supplemental is to make sure we have the rounds we need, whether it’s [the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile] or possibly things like [the] Tomahawk that we have for the Western Pacific." He continues, "And that is a capability we would need if we ever got in a conflict with China."Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) said "a big plus up" in munitions funding is imperative for Tomahawks, Naval Strike Missiles, and Harpoons. He also explained that the weapons are needed for global dominance. "And those kinds of weapons systems are critical everywhere, Taiwan in particular," the Senator said. Politico notes that Pentagon officials and lobbyists for arms makers are also pushing for increased funding for munitions production in a supplemental defense spending bill.

US ships with Defense Department cargo attacked by Yemen Houthis (AP) — Two American-flagged ships carrying cargo for the U.S. Defense and State departments came under attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Wednesday, officials said, with the U.S. Navy intercepting some of the incoming fire.The attacks on the container ships Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake further raise the stakes of the group’s ongoing attacks on shipping through the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The U.S. and the United Kingdom have launched multiple rounds of airstrikes seeking to stop the attacks.Meanwhile, Qatar, one of the world’s top exporters of liquified natural gas, warned that its deliveries were affected by ongoing Houthi attacks over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.Danish shipper Maersk, in a statement to The Associated Press, identified two of its vessels affected by the attacks as the U.S.-flagged container ships Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake. It said the U.S. Navy was accompanying its ships at the time.“While en route, both ships reported seeing explosions close by and the U.S. Navy accompaniment also intercepted multiple projectiles,” Maersk said. “The crew, ship, and cargo are safe and unharmed. The U.S. Navy has turned both ships around and is escorting them back to the Gulf of Aden.”Maersk said both vessels carried cargo belonging to the U.S. Defense and State Departments, as well as other government agencies, meaning they were “afforded the protection of the U.S. Navy for passage through the strait.”The ships were operated by Maersk Line, a U.S. subsidiary of Maersk that is “suspending transits in the region until further notice,” the company said.The U.S. military’s Central Command in an online statement blamed the Houthis for the attack, saying they fired “three anti-ship ballistic missiles. “One missile impacted in the sea,” the statement said. “The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely,” an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer.Central Command did not respond to further questions from the AP. The Houthis, who have been launching attacks on ships since November over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, later claimed the attacks in a prerecorded statement by their military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree. He vowed the Houthis would continue their attacks. Since November, the rebels have repeatedly targeted ships in the Red Sea, saying they were avenging Israel’s offensive in Gaza against Hamas. But they have frequently targeted vessels with tenuous or no clear links to Israel, imperiling shipping in a key route for global trade. The U.S. and the U.K. have launched rounds of airstrikes targeting suspected missile storage and launch sites used by the Houthis in their attacks. The rebels now say they’ll target American and British ships as well.

The United States Navy Essentially Lost A Battle At Sea This Week -- On Wednesday the US Navy attempted to escort two US owned and flagged container carriers through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea, but they turned around after coming under Houthi ballistic missile fire.A we detailed earlier, two contradictory narratives soon emerged: namely the Houthis said they scored a direct hit on one of the US ships, while the Pentagon flatly rejected the claim as nonsense. US CENTCOM said the missiles were intercepted, with one falling into the sea. But this has given rise to many more questions than answers, and some analysts are calling the hostile encounter a clear "loss" for the US Navy and the no less than three well-armed warships attempting to keep the commercial vessels safe. This engagement occurred while two American merchantmen - the Maersk Detroit and the Maersk Chesapeake - were attempting to run the Bab al-Mandeb from south to north while being covered by the USS Gravely. An AEGIS destroyer's defensive umbrella should have turned this transit into a milk run - except it didn't. CENTCOM admits that one of the Houthis' tactical ballistic missiles - undemanding targets as far as such things go - got through the Gravely's interceptors.What they neglected to mention was that it struck about a hundred meters from the Maersk Detroit, and that after the attack the convoy aborted the transit and retreated back into the Arabian Sea rather than press on into enemy fire. Was retreat the correct decision at the moment? Probably, the Gravely was shepherding two lumbering merchantmen and facing unsuppressed shore batteries of unknown strength and capability in broad daylight, quite possibly without adequate air cover given the ambiguities of the Eisenhower's exact station in the Red Sea and the limited combat radius of its air wing.Was this operational plan inadequate? Almost certainly - reading between the lines, it reeks of a complacent assumption that Houthi missile batteries had actually been suppressed by a few rounds of air raids and that a single AEGIS destroyer could handle anything the Houthis could throw at them with no need for additional contingency planning.In the event neither of these assumptions were correct - and because of it a convoy covered by one of the US Navy's premier warships retreated from a battle that was going badly. Perhaps the Task Force command should stop trying to shape narratives on this website and get to work on getting the Bab al-Mandeb back open to Western shipping, because right now that particular pool looks very closed.

US Troops Injured in Heavy Missile and Rocket Attack on US Base in Iraq - US troops were injured in a heavy missile and rocket attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase on Saturday as US forces continue to come under attack due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s slaughter in Gaza.According to US Central Command, “multiple ballistic missiles and rockets” were launched at the base, and most were intercepted while some impacted the base. CENTCOM said a “number” of US personnel were being examined for traumatic brain injuries, and one Iraqi soldier was wounded in the attack. CENTCOM blamed the attack on “Iranian-backed militants,” referring to Iraq’s Shia militias. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Shia militias, took credit for the missile and rocket fire, according to Al Mayadeen. According to the Pentagon, US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack 140 times since mid-October. The US has launched several rounds of airstrikes in both countries in response, including a drone strike in Baghdad that killed a deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of Iraqi militias that’s part of Iraq’s security forces.The Iraqi government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has strongly condemned the US strikes as a violation of sovereignty and iscalling for an end to the presence of the US-led international coalition in Iraq, known as Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR).OIR is in Iraq in the name of fighting ISIS, although the US presence is more about pushing back against Iran’s influence. Al-Sudani has said Iraq’s security forces can handle the ISIS remnants that are left in the country.

American support of the assassination of Iranian advisors - Tehran Times - In a conversation with Seyed Reza Sadr al-Hosseini, an expert on regional issues, the Iran newspaper discussed the Gaza war and America's support for the Zionist regime and wrote: The West Asia region is very important for Americans. They had already announced that they would not leave this area completely. This decision of the Americans is not unrelated to the predicament that Israel got involved in. There is no limit to the military and intelligence cooperation between the two sides, and in fact, based on the level of support it receives from the United States, Israel has also put the assassination of Iranian advisors in Syria on its agenda. While the Americans intend to reduce the strength of the resistance groups against Israel, they also want to reflect the message that instead of staying in West Asia and different countries including Iraq and Syria, they will cause serious damage to the people who are effective in expelling their forces in the fields of defense and security. In a commentary, Vatan-e-Emrooz addressed the deplorable situation of the Zionist regime in its long battle with resistance groups and said: Netanyahu's government is under severe political pressure from inside the occupied territories due to heavy defeats in this battle and the failure to achieve its goals. Due to the proximity of the presidential elections in the U.S., Biden is not willing to directly enter the conflict. Perhaps, from this point of view, it is possible to analyze Israel's purpose in assassinating Iranian commanders in such a way that Israel has used all its efforts to drag Iran to a direct conflict. Although the Islamic Republic of Iran has responded to these actions of the Zionists in some cases, it has avoided entering the playground designed by this regime. This approach is completely rational and forward-looking. In any case, in the hybrid war started against Iran and the resistance front these days, paying attention to public opinion, maintaining the country's prestige, and above all, maintaining deterrence power should not be neglected. In an article, Ettelaat dealt with Iran's missile attack on the Mossad headquarters in Erbil and quoted Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani as saying: Unfortunately, for many years, there have been direct threats to the national security and security of Iranian citizens from this region. Iran cannot be indifferent to threats to its national security and citizens. National security, border security, and the security of Iranian citizens are a red line, and the government and the armed forces of Iran will not be indifferent to providing security and defending the security of their citizens, as they have always done. Iran's action against the headquarters of the Mossad terrorist organization affiliated with the Zionist regime was an action in line with punishing the aggressors and those who take action against Iran's security and was not an action against Iraq, the Iraqi government, and the Kurdistan Region, or an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of this country. Israel should know that threats and rhetoric will be absurd from Iran's point of view and Iran will not leave any anti-Iranian action of the Zionist regime unanswered. Also, these statements should receive the attention of the international community and the Security Council, and they should react to any statements and actions against peace and regional and international security of this regime and take the necessary legal action. In an analysis, Shargh discussed the mutual attacks of Iran and Pakistan. It wrote: After these attacks, we witnessed an unprecedented speed in the "de-escalation" of tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan as well as an unprecedented speed of escalation of tensions between the two countries. According to Dawood Moeini, a senior analyst of subcontinental issues, two countries- Iran and Pakistan- are struggling with the issue of insecurity and terrorism, especially after the Taliban regained power. Considering these commonalities, these mutual attacks indicate that the situation was drawn towards unprecedented tension, but the political, economic, livelihood, and security commonalities of the two countries put Tehran and Islamabad on the de-escalation route in less than 72 hours. Although Tehran and Islamabad are now on the path of de-escalation and normalization of relations, there are still problems and challenges arising from the issue of facing terrorism and insecurity in the common borders, which can provide the platform and space for the repetition of tension. Therefore, from now on, in the shadow of diplomacy, a new chapter of coordination and bilateral security cooperation between Tehran and Islamabad will be formed to control and fight terrorism.

Iran censures US for preventing UN to end Israeli genocide in Gaza - Tehran Times -- Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian on Tuesday denounced the U.S. for preventing the UN Security Council from fulfilling its duty to press for an end to the Israeli regime's genocidal campaign in the Gaza Strip. “(Washington) has prevented this body from effectively fulfilling its inherent duties in stopping the overt genocide of a nation and establishing a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip," Amir Abdollahian said as he addressed a UN Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East, especially Gaza. Israel has been pounding Yemen cruelly and relentlessly since October 7 when Hamas made a surprise attack on southern Israel. The Israeli war on Gaza has so far killed 25,700 Palestinians, mostly women and children. Thousands of Gazans, including children, have also been maimed for life. The U.S. has been providing Israel with unbridled military and political support in its onslaught against Gaza, arming Tel Aviv with more than 10,000 tons of military hardware. The US has also torpedoed the prospect of cessation of the Israeli aggression by stonewalling ratification of all Security Council resolutions that have been calling for a ceasefire. Amir Abdollahian denounced Washington for serving "as the practical supporter and main accomplice of the Israeli regime in its crimes" in Gaza. "...the U.S. must compel the Israeli regime to stop the war and pull itself out of the trap that the Israeli regime has set to drag the U.S. into direct conflict," Press TV quoted the foreign minister as saying. 'War is not the solution' Amir Abdollahian reiterated that the carnage of innocent civilians, especially women and children, had to be stopped immediately. "War is not the solution. Security cannot be achieved by resorting to the use of force and committing the crime of genocide in Gaza," he asserted. Amir Abdollahian called on the UN Security Council to act on its duty to pass a resolution calling for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and deliver humanitarian aid without any hindrance to Gaza that is home to 2.3 million people. Such a resolution must also urge immediate and complete exit of Israeli troops from the coastal enclave and extract a commitment from the regime to refrain from any efforts to relocate Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan.

Biden Thinks It's Just a Matter of Time Before US Troops Are Killed in Iraq or Syria - --President Biden and his top advisors worry that it’s just a matter of time before an American soldier is killed in Iraq or Syria amid a flurry of rocket attacks launched by Shia militias on US bases that started in response to US support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza, The New York Times reported on Sunday. US officials suggested that if an American is killed, President Biden would attack Iran directly, which could provoke a major war. Iran is allied with the Shia militias that have been taking credit for attacks on US troops, but Tehran has denied it’s involved in the operations. In October, the Pentagon said it had no direct evidence Iran was ordering attacks on US troops, and a US official told CNN that how willing the Shia militias were to act independently was always a “persistent intelligence gap.” Regardless, the US is still blaming Iran for the attacks.The report said US officials have been debating how to respond to the attacks and don’t want to “go so far that the conflict would escalate into a full-fledged war, particularly by striking Iran directly.”However, if an American is killed, the US officials say they may have no choice but to attack Iran. “That is a red line that has not been crossed, but if the Iranian-backed militias ever have a day of better aim or better luck, it easily could be,” the report reads.It’s unclear from the report if the US would bomb Iranian territory directly or target the Iranian military in Iraq or Syria. Israel recently killed five members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by targeting them with airstrikes in Damascus, risking a response from Tehran. So far, there have been over 140 attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria since mid-October, and around 70 have been injured. The US has launched several airstrikes in response, prompting calls from the Iraqi government for the US and other foreign forces to withdraw from the country. But President Biden is choosing to stay, putting the troops in harm’s way and risking a major war.

US Troops in Iraq Are a Tripwire for War With Iran - The New York Times Monday noted the increasing likelihood that U.S. troops will be killed by mortars or rocket fire from Shi’ite militias in Iraq or Syria as they have been attacked and wounded repeatedly in the past three months as locals take revenge for Israel’s violence in Gaza. (AQI/ISIS sure have motive to attack and frame the Shi’ites too, btw.)As Gen. Mattis said years ago:“I paid a military security price every day as the commander of CentCom because the Americans were seen as biased in support of Israel, and that all the moderate Arabs who want to be with us, they can’t come out publicly in support of people who don’t show respect for the Arab Palestinians.”The point is that as Israel escalates against Hezbollah and Syria, and the U.S. escalates in Syria and Iraq (they assassinated a Shi’ite militia leaderwith a drone strike in Baghdad two weeks ago, leading the government todemand US withdrawal) and against the Houthis in Yemen, the danger of a real regional war against all the Shi’ite countries and substate militias and terrorist groups is quite high. The Times says the Biden regime says that if Americans are killed in Iraq, they will feel the political necessity to expand the war to Iran with at least what they consider limited strikes. At that point it seems very likely it would be all bets off and the Ayatollah would go to war and urge the rest of the so-called Axis of Resistance, or Shi’ite Crescent, to join them.Even if Russia and China do nothing but watch, the costs to the United States would be enormous. U.S. troops, airmen, sailors, etc. would be at risk in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE and Saudi, along with an empire worth of equipment based in Qatar and Bahrain, home of CENTCOM and the center of American air power there, as well as the home of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet. Iran has thousands of missiles that can reach these targets, as well as air defenses which would be capable of destroying many air force and navy planes before air dominance over Iran could be achieved if it ever could at all, which may be a big assumption.The Iraqi government and army would also virtually certainly take Iran’s side and join up with the militias to march on Iraqi Kurdistan and force U.S. troops out; same for Syria.(Nevermind the danger of Hezbollah type groups wreaking havoc across the EU and hopefully not the U.S. too, nor the threat that U.S. Sunni client monarchies and dictatorships in the region could fall and be replace by who-knows-what.)So then what is Biden supposed to do? Unleash our entire navy and air force (possibly even army, marines, SOCOM) against Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran at the same time — and all to continue to abet Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza? In 2007, the Chiefs told W. Bush, No way. They don’t want to fight unless they know they will have “escalation dominance” over every stage of the conflict, and here they know they would not have it.

Iran Mobilizes To Drive US Troops Out Of Iraq -When Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in New York City in September for the UN General Assembly, a delicate truce was in balance between the two foreign powers that loom over Baghdad. Iraqi paramilitaries, backed by Iran, had frozen their attacks on US troops in the country. Iraq’s new leader arrived in New York City amid the lull. He was feted on a circuit of swanky receptions with western businessmen and diplomats on the sidelines of the General Assembly, as he pitched Iraq’s oil-rich but corruption-riddled economy as an investment destination. Four months later, the Iraqi leader is condemning Iran and the US for launching deadly strikes in his country and his investment pitch to the global elite at Davos Switzerland is overshadowed by his call for the US military and its coalition partners to leave Iraq. Since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7 and the war in Gaza, Iranian-backed militias have launched at least 70 attacks on US forces in Iraq.In early January, the US hit back with its most powerful response yet, launching a drone strike in Baghdad that killed Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, also known as Abu Taqwa, a senior commander in the Popular Mobilization Units, an umbrella organisation of Iraqi state-funded and Iran-aligned, Shia militias.Baghdad hit out at the strike as “a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty”. But no sooner was Iraq chastiszing the US for the strike, when Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles into the Iraqi city of Erbil, killing four people, including a prominent Kurdish real estate developer and his one-year-old daughter.Baghdad slammed Tehran’s allegation that the house struck in Erbil was an Israeli Mossad “spy center”. At Davos, Sudani called the strike "a clear act of aggression”. Iraq has recalled its ambassador to Tehran and says it will file a complaint at the UN Security Council.The dual rebukes of Iran and the US underscore the tightrope Baghdad is walking as the war in Gaza seeps out beyond the besieged Mediterranean enclave’s borders. Across the region, Tehran and Washington are flexing their muscles, vying to outflank each other in a deadly proxy war. The shadowy conflict has taken on different flavours that reflect local and geopolitical realities.In Lebanon, the US is trying to de-escalate fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with both sides wary of being dragged into a wider conflict. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen have made themselves targets of US air strikes as a response to their attacks on commercial shipping.But the conflict is perhaps at its most intense, and complex, in Iraq. “The Iraqi government is weak, divided and fundamentally can’t control conflict on its borders from foreign powers,” Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Chatham House think-tank, told Middle East Eye.“It emerged as the playground of choice, where the US and Iran can fight it out. The risk of escalation here is lower for both. And they can show force and compete for influence.”dominate Baghdad’s government, the war in Gaza has presented an opportunity to drive home their goal of expelling the US from Iraq. A former senior US official and an Iraqi official told MEE that there has been increased coordination between Iranian-backed paramilitaries in Iraq and Lebanese Hezbollah with that aim. According to media reports, a top Hezbollah official, Mohammad Hussein al-Kawtharani, arrived in Baghdad earlier this month to oversee the operations.

US Launches Airstrikes in Southern Somalia, Says Three al-Shabaab Killed - The US launched airstrikes in Somalia on January 21, US Africa Command announced on Tuesday, marking the first known US bombing of the country in 2024.AFRICOM said in a press release that the strikes consisted of two separate engagements against al-Shabaab about 20 miles northeast of Kismaayo, a port city in southern Somalia. The command said the strikes were launched at the request of the US-backed Mogadishu-based government.The command said its “initial assessment” found three al-Shabaab fighters were killed and claimed no civilians were harmed. But AFRICOM is notorious for undercounting civilian casualties, and US military operations in Somalia are shrouded in secrecy.The last US airstrikes in Somalia reported by AFRICOMwere launched on December 20. The latest US bombing comes as tensions are soaring off the northern Somali coast as the US has launched a new war against Yemen’s Houthis in response to their attacks on Israel-linked commercial shipping that started in protest of Israel’s onslaught in Gaza.US airstrikes in Somalia escalated in 2022 after President Biden ordered the deployment of up to 500 troops to the country, and the US-backed government launched an offensive against al-Shabaab.When the House debated a resolution to withdraw from Somalia last year, lawmakers said there were 900 troops in the country. US troops on the ground in Somalia provide training for a special fighting force known as the Danab Brigade.

State Department responds to Putin on Alaska: ‘Certainly he’s not getting it back’ The State Department on Monday brushed off reports of Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering his government to look into the nation’s former “real estate” abroad, saying Alaska would be staying in American hands.Putin signed a new decree last week to allocate funds for the research and registration of Russian property overseas, including that in former territories of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, Russian state media TASS reported.The decree, which comes amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, did not specifically mention Alaska, though it caught the attention of military bloggers, who argued Putin was using the decree to declare the 1867 Russian sale of the Last Frontier State to the U.S. is illegal.“Well, I think I can speak for all of us in the U.S. government to say that certainly he’s not getting it back,” State Department principal deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said during aMonday press briefing, prompting laughter from his audience.The Institute for the Study of War last week noted the “exact parameters of what constitutes current or historical Russia property are unclear.” “The Kremlin may use the ‘protection’ of its claimed property in countries outside of its internationally recognized borders to forward soft power mechanisms in post-Soviet and neighboring states ultimately aimed at internal destabilization,” the institute wrote in an assessment of the Russian offensive campaign.It pointed to a Telegram post from a military blogger who suggested Russia could start enacting the law in Alaska and parts of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.Putin, in a 2014 question-and-answer with a studio audience, called the 1867 sale “inexpensive,” and argued people should “not get worked about it.”“We can calculate the equivalent amount, but it was definitely inexpensive. Russia is a northern country with 70 percent of its territory located in the north and the far north. Alaska is not located in the southern hemisphere, either, is it? It’s cold out there as well. Let’s not get worked up about it, all right?” he said.While Putin appeared to downplay the sale, Russian lawmaker Sergei Mironov in December hinted at Moscow reclaiming its previous territories in the future.“Did you want a new world order? Receive and sign. Venezuela annexed a 24th state, Guyana-Essequibo. This is happening right under the nose of the once great hegemon of the United States. All that remains is for Mexico to return Texas and the rest. It’s time for Americans to think about their future. And also about Alaska,” Mironov wrote on X, formerly Twitter, last month.Trump takes on McConnell, Senate GOP on border package - Former President Trump is taking on Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his leadership team by calling on Republican lawmakers to reject a compromise on border security. The runaway front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination is also setting up a crucial battle over both his party’s future and Ukraine, as precious aid to that country is tied to the border deal along with help for Israel and the Indo-Pacific. Trump has said Republicans should say “no” to any deal that falls short of “everything needed” to stop the flow of migrants, a message that pointedly puts pressure on new Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to walk the line. Johnson has been under pressure from the Senate GOP and the White House to agree to an emerging Senate deal. Members of McConnell’s leadership team immediately pushed back against what appeared to be an attempt by Trump to tank the Senate deal. “It’s not helpful,” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2-ranking Senate GOP leader. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) Thune argued the Senate’s Ukraine package is the best chance Republicans have to staunch the flow of migrants, which exceeded more than 300,000 people in December alone — an all-time monthly high. “There are a number of pieces in there that are good, conservative border policies that we’ve been trying to get done for years,” he said. Trump lashed out at the emerging Senate border deal in a post Thursday on Truth Social. “I do not think we should do a Border Deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions & Millions of people, many from parts unknown, into our once great, but soon to be great again, Country!” he wrote on his social media platform. Trump appears to be aiming his pressure campaign on Johnson and House Republicans, who could kill any deal on Ukraine funding and border security that passes the Senate. Johnson told Fox News on Wednesday that he “frequently” talks to Trump about the border crisis. “President Trump is not wrong,” the Speaker told Fox News host Laura Ingraham. “He and I have been talking about this pretty frequently. I talked to him the night before last about the same subject.”

Supremes Roberts, Barrett Join Libs In Allowing Biden To Remove Texas Border Wire - The Supreme Court voted 5–4 vote to allow U.S. Border Patrol agents to remove razor wire that was set up along the U.S.–Mexico border by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott while a legal challenge plays out. In a brief order, the high court vacated a ruling issued in mid-December by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh voted to deny the application to vacate that lower court injunction, which would have prevented Border Patrol agents from removing the barrier.Chief Justice John Roberts as well as Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Elena Kagan, and Sonia Sotomayor sided with the Biden administration. No one provided an explanation for their vote.The order represents a win for President Joe Biden’s administration, which has struggled to curb illegal immigration into the United States since he took office in 2021, amid an ongoing battle with Mr. Abbott, a Republican, over the border. The administration had filed an emergency request to the Supreme Court and argued that Texas was blocking federal agents from carrying out their duties.In arguments to the high court, Biden administration lawyers claimed that the barrier prevented agents from reaching illegal immigrants who already entered the United States. Lawyers for the state of Texas, however, have said that Washington has not been able to secure the border as Mr. Abbott’s administration set up razor wire fencing under the Operation Lone Star plan.They argued that the razor wire blocks agents from gaining access to “the very border they are charged with patrolling and the individuals they are charged with apprehending and inspecting.”“Like other law-enforcement officers, Border Patrol agents operating under difficult circumstances at the border must make context-dependent, sometimes split-second decisions about how to enforce federal immigration laws while maintaining public safety,” Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar wrote to the Supreme Court. “But the injunction prohibits agents from passing through or moving physical obstacles erected by the State that prevent access to the very border they are charged with patrolling and the individuals they are charged with apprehending and inspecting.”In the application, she also rejected the idea that federal agents have done anything illegal or improper.

Chip Roy: Texas should ignore Supreme Court’s border razor wire ruling - Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) called on Texas officials to ignore the recent Supreme Court ruling declaring the federal government could remove razor wire on the U.S.-Mexico border. “They have a duty under the Constitution … and every other norm of leadership of any sovereign state, to protect your citizens, period, full stop. There is no exception to that,” Roy told Fox News Digital on Tuesday. “And if the Supreme Court wants to ignore that truth, which a slim majority did, Texas still had the duty, Texas leaders still have the duty, to defend their people.” The 5-4 Supreme Court decision Monday allows the federal government to remove razor wire on the border wall placed by Texas law enforcement. The government argued the wire illegally prevented them from managing the border.The conflict escalated earlier this month when the Texas National Guard and the Texas Department of Public Safety erected fences and razor wire in Eagle Pass, Texas, a popular spot for migrants to cross into the United States.Texas law enforcement prevents U.S. Border Patrol from accessing the area, which Border Patrol said prevented them from saving the life of a mother and two children who drowned in the Rio Grande.Roy called the opinion from the court “unconscionable,” and called for the state to ignore it in a post online.The Texas lawmaker has called on other members of the Congressional delegation to oppose funding to the Department of Homeland Security “or any other entity facilitating this brazen violation of the security & welfare of Texans.”“It’s like, if someone’s breaking into your house, and the court says ‘Oh, sorry. You can’t defend yourself.’ What do you tell the court?” Roy said. “You tell the court to go to hell, you defend yourself and then figure it out later.”

Biden admin demands Texas give Border Patrol access to key park at center of border dispute - The Biden administration is ratcheting up demands for Texas to grant Border Patrol officials access to a key park at the center of a border dispute.Texas seized control of the riverfront park earlier this month and began denying entry to Border Patrol agents, escalating a feud between Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and President Joe Biden's administration,The Republican governor has repeatedly slammed the Biden administration for not doing enough to stem the tide of illegal border crossings – which hit more than 300,000 nationwide last month. On Tuesday, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent the state a letter addressed to Attorney General Ken Paxton, demanding access to Shelby Park, which is next to the Rio Grande."To our knowledge, Texas has only permitted access to Shelby Park by allowing public entry for a memorial, the media, and use of the golf course adjacent to Shelby Park, all while continuing to restrict U.S. Border Patrol's access to the park," the letter read. It gave Texas until Friday to respond.The letter followed the Supreme Court’s decision on Monday that effectively sided with the Biden administration in giving Border Patrol the okay to start removing razor wire installed near Eagle Pass to keep out migrants.Texas has installed rows of razor wire in Shelby Park and said more was being added after the Supreme Court’s decision.Though not addressing the park, Abbott has struck a defiant tone, writing in a lengthy statement that the Biden administration had "broken the compact between the United States and States.""The Executive Branch of the United States has a constitutional duty to enforce federal laws protecting States, including immigration law on the books right now," he said. "President Biden has refused to enforce those laws and has even violated them. The result is that he has smashed records for illegal immigrants."Texas troopers and National Guard members have kept a large presence at Shelby Park since last summer, when thousands of migrants were crossing illegally crossing from Mexico.Texas told the Supreme Court the park was reopened to the public days after they shut it down, but the federal government expressed skepticism in its letter. The Biden administration requested access to the park, an area underneath a port of entry and a boat ramp.

Frustrations explode at Senate GOP lunch over border deal --Senate conservatives Tuesday vented their frustrations with Senate GOP leaders over an emerging border security deal that is slated to come to the Senate floor in the next few weeks, warning that an agreement with President Biden may wind up being worse than doing nothing at all. Republicans including Sens. Mike Lee (Utah), Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) complained about being left in the dark about key details and warned that the deal could hurt Republicans’ chances of keeping control of the House in the 2024 election, according to senators present at a lunch meeting where the issue was discussed. Senators said their colleagues were close to shouting at each other as tempers flared during the contentious discussion. “Several points of view came out … at decibel levels a little higher than normal,” Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) quipped about the heated debate over the expected deal on Ukraine funding and border security. “I think it’s because it’s taken so long, and now there’s talk about maybe getting something to the floor and voting on it in a day or two. I think that would cause a real uproar,” Braun said. “It’s going to be a large, complicated bill to where you don’t have adequate amount of time to pour through it properly.” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said the deep divisions within the Senate GOP conference were laid bare at the Tuesday lunch. “The caucus is very much split on sending more money to Ukraine but also to the border aspect to it,” he said. Lee, the chairman of the Senate Steering Committee, said frustration boiled over because some GOP senators feel they are being “set up” by Senate leaders who plan to rush a deal on Ukraine funding and border security to the floor before the Presidents’ Day recess. Lee argued at Tuesday’s lunch that senators need to have at least three weeks to review the complicated legislation, and a chance to amend it before a final vote — and that Republicans should block it unless leaders agree. “We’ve been through these things so many times where we’re told, ‘Oh, there’s not a deal yet, not a deal, not a deal.’ All of a sudden: ‘Oh, there’s [a] deal.’ And then we are given the equivalent of a snap election, like a snap vote, without really any opportunity to read it and no opportunity to amend it,” Lee said. “And we’ll be told, ‘Oh, oh, that was Schumer’s decision.’ No it’s not,” he added, referring to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Lee and other conservative Republicans are bristling over the secretive nature of the talks and alarmed by what details have trickled out. He said almost the entire conference except for Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead GOP negotiator, has been shut out of the talks and will likely be forced to vote on the proposal without fully understanding how it works. “What we don’t want is to receive bill text and then be asked to vote on it the next day or the next day after that or a very short period of time,” Lee said after the meeting. He argued that when the Senate tackled immigration reform in 2013, the Senate Judiciary Committee spent “weeks” marking up legislation in public session, giving senators plenty of time to digest the details. This time Senate leaders are skipping the committee process altogether. “We are by any definition of that word being shut out. I don’t understand, I genuinely don’t understand — I have great respect for James Lankford — but I literally don’t understand why this makes sense … to have one person from the conference who has access to everything they’re negotiating, everything they’re discussing, and the rest of us are shut out,” Lee exclaimed. “What little we do know about we have concerns with,” he lamented. “There are a bunch of things.”

North Texas congressman introduces new border bill – Congressman Roger Williams (R-TX) is introducing a new bill called the State of Texas Operational Protections Act, to authorize Texas to enforce their southern border and be reimbursed from the federal government for doing so. Williams introduced the bill on Monday and discussed it on Tuesday morning while speaking with law enforcement in Tarrant County. "This legislation gives Texas the authority to secure our borders and protect the lives of Texans and, most importantly, reimburses Texas for any state dollars spent on border security, which we have spent a sizeable amount of taxpayer dollars right here in Texas that should have not been spent if President Biden and his administration would have done what they’re supposed to do," Williams said. Constitutional law expert David Coale said it's a creative way for Texas to get around its recurring problem with the federal government when it comes to the border. "By and large, the Biden administration has been successful in court, arguing that Texas' more aggressive efforts to enforce border security run afoul of federal preemption; they go into areas that are exclusively federal in our government that states can't go into," Coale explained. This bill would get ahead of preemption. "Because it basically says, 'It's OK, Texas go ahead and do-- and it lists a number of things that it's OK for Texas to go ahead and do," Coale said. But in solving Texas' preemption problem, Coale said, the bill could create two new constitutional issues. The bill outlines some instructions for the Texas Department of Public Safety: In Section 3b, stating that the agency should work with federal, state, and local authorities for operations and, in Section 4b, stating that DPS should work with state agencies to identify specific areas that need more border security measures. Coale said that sounds like it could be commandeering. "That sounds a lot like the federal government not just saying, 'Here's a law everybody needs to follow, but giving specific direction to a specific office within state government," he explained. He said the other constitutional challenge with this bill could be its reimbursement aspect: Congress constitutionally has the power of the purse, and the bill's funding plan isn't the way it usually works. "Appropriation, as customarily understood, means Congress says, 'Here's the goal and here's the money to go carry that out.' This is kind of an end run around that," Coale said.You can read the bill's full text here.

Senate border deal would allow 5,000 illegal immigrants a day -Conservative activists are recoiling as details leak from the immigration deal being negotiated in the Senatesuggesting illegal border crossers will be immediately eligible for work permits and the government will allow up to 5,000 illegal immigrants a day before expulsion powers take effect.Negotiators have tightly guarded plans during their weeks of talks, but Rosemary Jenks, government relations director at the Immigration Accountability Project, said she has been briefed by multiple people familiar with the negotiations and has been sharing details online.She said the current framework includes a right to government-funded attorneys for illegal immigrant children struggling through the immigration courts and an expansion of legal immigration, which are priorities of President Biden. In exchange, Republicans would win new limits on attempts to claim asylum and expanded speedy deportation powers but no significant new restrictions on The Homeland Security Department’s power to “parole” illegal immigrants directly into the U.S.Ms. Jenks said the deal, based on those outlines, would do little to derail the unprecedented number of illegal immigrants pouring across the border.“I think we’d be lucky if it didn’t increase,” she told The Washington Times. “There’s nothing in this that I have seen or been told about that stops catch-and-release.”Her version of the bill has scorched through conservative circles, and activists are rallying to demand that the Republicans back out of the talks. Their chief target is Sen. James Lankford, the Oklahoma lawmaker serving as Republicans’ lead negotiator.In a statement to The Times, the senator pleaded for patience. He said those attacking the deal haven’t seen the outlines.

Furious Conservatives Say Border Bill ‘Ain’t Gonna Pass’ - Senate Republicans are continuing to clash over ongoing talks for a deal to tighten border security and deliver aid to Ukraine, with some railing against the potential legislation and fuming that they haven’t seen more details about the closed-door discussions or the text being drafted. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas slammed the bill being hammered out by negotiators as a “stinking pile of crap” and said that the plan is designed to fail. “The chances of this bill passing the House are 0.000%. It ain’t gonna pass,” he told reporters at a news conference held by several hard-right Republicans. “This bill represents Senate Republican leadership waging war on House Republican leadership. It’s not designed to secure the border, it won’t secure the border, and that’s why leadership wants it kept in secret.” Other Republicans also complained about being kept in the dark and wondered openly what the party strategy is. “I don’t know anything about what they’re doing,” Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy told reporters. “I mean, one of the gentlemen under the interstate living in a refrigerator box knows more about it than I do.” Asked by CNN about Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s handling of the border and Ukraine talks, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley called it “disastrous,” a “total shambles” and “embarrassing.” McConnell has faced other direct attacks by his own members, but he has continued to voice support for a deal, arguing that it represents the best chance to make progress on the border and provide vital aid to Ukraine. “This is about cold, hard American interest,” he argued Wednesday. “We cannot pretend that American is inoculated against the consequences of a war in Europe.” The bottom line: Republicans are divided and the situation is an utter mess, which could redound to President Joe Biden’s political benefit even as it leaves major policy issues unresolved. Even with all those potential implications, we’re going to quote Fox News here: “Unremitting cycle on Capitol Hill is tedious.”

Immigration overtakes inflation as top voter concern: Poll - More voters pointed to immigration than to inflation as a top policy concern in January, according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released Monday. The survey found that 35 percent of respondents listed immigration as their paramount concern among an array of issues, with inflation in a close second, named by 32 percent of respondents. Immigration skyrocketed as an issue, jumping 7 percentage points in the list compared to the previous month’s poll. Immigration and inflation were followed by “economy and jobs,” listed as a top concern by 25 percent of those surveyed, while “crime and drugs” and health care were each listed by 16 percent of respondents, the deficit and national security each by 14 percent of respondents and corruption and the environment were each named by 13 percent of people surveyed. Yet, inflation was by far the most cited topic by respondents asked what issue affects them personally. Twice as many respondents, 38 percent, said inflation affected them directly, than the 17 percent who cited immigration. The number of respondents who said immigration impacted them directly grew by 3 percentage points from the previous survey. Crime and climate change were cited by 10 percent of respondents each as affecting them directly, while abortion and racial equity were each cited by 7 percent of respondents. The pivot to immigration mirrors both a political environment tuning into border policy as a core issue and a reduction in inflation that’s somewhat deflated the political clout of that issue. Both issues are at the tip of the Republican spear in attacks against President Biden, who is facing a reelection run with dangerously low approval numbers. Republicans and some Democrats — like big city mayors — have kept immigration in the headlines, communicating a sense of crisis that’s taken hold among a large segment of the population. And the GOP-established metric of success or failure in immigration, the number of monthly border encounters, has generally been accepted by the Biden administration. Although those encounters have remained high throughout the Biden presidency, they’ve also been more or less stable since fiscal 2022, when U.S. border authorities encountered migrants without prior authorization to enter the country 2,378,944 times. In fiscal 2023, officials reported 2,475,669 encounters, and the first reported numbers for fiscal 2024 show similar, if slightly higher, numbers in October and November. Homeland Security officials have said encounters lulled in January, though official numbers have not yet been reported, in keeping with expected seasonal fluctuations. But a broad majority of voters said they believe immigration at the border is a worsening problem. According to the poll, 64 percent of respondents said conditions at the border are getting worse, while 23 percent said they’re staying the same, and only 13 percent said conditions are improving at the border. The partisan split on the issue is broad, with 81 percent of Republicans, 68 percent of independents and 45 percent of Democrats saying conditions are worsening — 34 percent of Democrats said conditions are staying the same, while 21 percent said they’re improving. Additionally, 68 percent of respondents said the administration should make it tougher to get into the United States illegally, and 32 percent said current border policies should remain. Broad majorities of Republicans and independents — 85 percent and 71 percent respectively — want to see tougher border enforcement, but Democrats are split at 50-50 on whether they’d like to see that.

RFK Jr. praises Texas in battle with Biden over border -Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Thursday backed Texas in its ongoing battle with the federal government over border authority, criticizing the Biden administration for its handling of the U.S. southern border.“Texas is right. Biden’s failure to secure the border leaves states no choice but to take matters into their own hands,” Kennedy wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. “As President, I will end this humanitarian crisis once and for all. I will secure the border and destroy the business model of the drug cartels. A country without borders is not a country at all.”Kennedy joins a growing list of politicians, most of them Republican, who have thrown their support behind Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) fight against the federal government over the fencing and razor wire installed by Texas at the U.S.-Mexico border.In a major blow to Abbott, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this week that border agents can remove the razor wire erected on the border, siding with the Biden administration.Abbott has defended the fencing as necessary for his state’s security, claiming he was forced to take matters into his own hands due to what he characterizes as a lack of action on the Biden administration’s part. The federal government, meanwhile, contends the state does not have the power to build the fencing, which it says prevents it from managing the border.Abbott railed against the high court ruling and contended his authority is the “supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes.” Texas appeared to continue installing razor wire after the ruling came down.Kennedy has previously spoken out against what he sees as a “border crisis” that is leading to the smuggling of drugs and humans. He called Biden’s border policies a “disaster” in a Newsweek op-ed last year. Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley also spoke out in support of Abbott on Thursday and called Biden’s position “absolutely ridiculous.”

Trump calls for states to deploy National Guard to Texas amid border feud - Former President Trump encouraged “all willing States” to deploy National Guard members to Texas amid the feud between Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and the federal government over the removal of razor wire across the U.S.-Mexico border.“In the face of this National Security, Public Safety, and Public Health Catastrophe, Texas has rightly invoked the Invasion Clause of the Constitution, and must be given full support to repel the Invasion,” Trump said in a statement Thursday.“We encourage all willing States to deploy their guards to Texas to prevent the entry of Illegals, and to remove them back across the Border,” Trump continued. “All Americans should support the commonsense measures by Texas authorities to protect the Safety, Security, and Sovereignty of Texas, and of the American people.” On Tuesday, the Texas National Guard appeared to ignore a Supreme Court decision approving the removal of the razor wire barriers, and continued construction along the border. Abbot justified his decision, criticizing President Biden for not enforcing and violating immigration laws.The Texas governor has cited the constitutional authority a state has to defend itself against invasion, as the surge of migrants arriving at the country’s southern border continues.Trump’s declaration comes as Republican governors in several states have backed Abbott in his standoff against the government’s decision to allow Border Patrol to remove the wire. GOP Govs. Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma, Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Ron DeSantis of Florida, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and Brian Kemp of Georgia have all said they support Abbott.“When I am President, on Day One, instead of fighting Texas, I will work hand in hand with Governor Abbott and other Border States to Stop the Invasion, Seal the Border, and Rapidly Begin the Largest Domestic Deportation Operation in History,” Trump said. “Those Biden has let in should not get comfortable because they will be going home.”Trump criticized Biden for “aiding and abetting” the migrant surge. He said it has tied Abbott’s hands “so that the Invasion continues unchecked.” Claims that Texas officials can supersede federal authority sparked calls from Democrats for Biden to nationalize the Texas National Guard and force them to follow the court’s decision.

Trump's push to deny Biden border victory aggravates lawmakers - Former President Trump’s push to kill the border deal in order to deny President Biden a legislative win is upsetting members on both sides of the aisle as negotiators hope to wrap up work on an agreement within days. Trump had been the sleeping giant in the background of talks, but his wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, coupled with his recent remarks calling for Republicans to oppose any border package short of H.R. 2, have complicated the path forward for the Senate. Lawmakers say they are worried that killing the deal would be a major disservice given the situation at the border and in Ukraine. “If politics get in the way of this — if Donald Trump who wants to help his friend [Russian President Vladimir Putin] with Ukraine and wants to keep the border alive as a major issue — if that prevails, that would be a really horrible disposition to all this,” Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told reporters. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) called the effort “appalling.” “But the reality is that we have a crisis at the border, the American people are suffering as a result of what’s happening at the border, and someone running for president ought to try to get the problem solved as opposed to saying, ‘Hey, save that problem. Don’t solve it. Let me take credit for solving it later,’” he told CNN’s Manu Raju

Senate GOP pleads with Trump not to kill Ukraine-border security deal - Senate Republicans who favor sending aid to Ukraine and cutting a deal with Democrats to secure the U.S.-Mexico border are hoping that former President Trump’s Senate allies can intervene with the presidential front-runner to save a carefully negotiated package of military aid and border security reforms from going down in flames. Senate Republican Policy Committee Chair Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) this week asked colleagues who have endorsed Trump to intercede with the Republican presidential front-runner and ask that he hold off on criticizing the emerging deal until lawmakers have a chance to review its details. Ernst and other Republicans are worried that Trump will throttle legislation to help Ukraine and improve border security before the text of the deal is even released. One Republican senator who attended a Senate GOP discussion on the bill said Ernst asked “those of you who have endorsed Trump, please ask Trump: Don’t cut off its head before we’ve even seen it.” The lawmaker said Trump’s opposition to a border security deal is “damaging.” A second GOP senator confirmed Ernst’s plea to colleagues to ask Trump to hold his fire. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told Senate Republican colleagues Wednesday afternoon that the politics of passing border security reforms attached to Ukraine funding is turning out to be a lot tougher than he and other GOP lawmakers initially expected. McConnell acknowledged that Trump’s expected opposition to any border security deal could prove too big an obstacle to overcome, according to GOP senators in the meeting. “I think he was saying out loud what a lot of people are thinking on this. When [the negotiations] started in October, we were not in a presidential election year. This was a totally different moment on it. Now we are in the heat of a primary in a presidential election year. It’s a huge campaign issue and it kind of gets sucked into all of this conversation” about a Ukraine funding and border security package, said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead Republican negotiator on the border reforms. McConnell has also floated the idea of splitting off the border provisions from the larger package as away to preserve Ukraine aid, a high priority for the GOP leader. But it is unclear how this would pass muster in the House.Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a member of Senate GOP leadership and the whip team, said Trump should hold off on bashing the emerging deal. She defended the reforms to asylum and parole policy as changes that would reduce migrant flows. “A lot of what we want is what Trump did, so he should hold his fire a little bit,” she said. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a leading Senate Republican voice on immigration policy and a member of the leadership team, said the bill would cut down on the number of migrants entering the country and promised that Trump could still run against President Biden on the issue of border security. “Some people have said, ‘Well, the issue is gonna go away and that will be denying President Trump the issue.’ I think that’s fantasy. You’re not going to turn off what’s happening at the border like a water faucet. So, this is going to continue to be a problem, and it’s obviously a very potent political issue,” Cornyn said Thursday. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) called Trump’s opposition to a border security deal “appalling.” “I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump,” Romney said. “And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is really appalling.”

Scalise aide to Senate GOP: Border deal is dead on arrival in House - A senior aide to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told a group of Senate Republican chiefs of staff Thursday that a border security deal that is being put together with Democrats in the Senate has no chance of passing the House, underscoring what is becoming more and more apparent to GOP senators. Scalise’s chief of staff, Brett Horton, emphasized that if the Senate bill includes some of the details that have leaked to the public, such as expedited work permits or enhanced expulsion authority that would only kick in after migrant border crossings exceed 5,000 people a day, it won’t have any chance of passing the House. A person familiar with his comments noted that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Scalise have said publicly in recent days that if some of the proposals being publicly reported end up in the final Senate bill, then it’s dead on arrival. The private, state-level warning, however, is a wake-up call to many senators who have not closely followed what House GOP leaders have said about the unfolding Senate negotiations on Ukraine funding and border security. “Scalise’s chief got up and the first thing he said was, ‘This border bill, if you send it to us, is dead on arrival. Dead.’ He said, ‘I just want to be clear about that, we will not take it up, we will not vote on it. It is dead. End of discussion,’” said a Senate Republican source familiar with the comments. “So that sent a message,” the source said. Two other Senate Republican sources confirmed that that House GOP staffer bluntly warned the Senate bill isn’t going anywhere in the House. “He said, ‘If it comes over in the form that we’ve seen, we won’t even put it on the floor,’” said a second source, confirming the pointed message from the House GOP leadership. Republican senators briefed on the details of the package say that House GOP leaders are not going to change their mind once the bill is made public in its entirety. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), an outspoken critic of the Senate bill, said Senate leadership staff confirmed that the president would not get enhanced expulsion authority until there are more than 5,000 daily migrant crossings. “That’s how my staff was briefed from leadership staff,” he said. “It could normalize somewhere between 4,000 and 5,000” migrants being allowed into the country on a daily basis.

GOP looks for Plan B on Ukraine with border bill looking DOA GOP supporters of aid to Ukraine are beginning to look for a Plan B as they come to grips with the reality that Senate legislation to boost border security and deal with a host of foreign crises is dead in the House. The virulent conservative opposition to the bill has led some Republican senators to speculate about moving military aid for Ukraine without any attached border reforms. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) say they are committed to bringing the package linking money for Ukraine with border security reforms to the Senate floor, but senators say both realize it has little to no prospect of making it to President Biden’s desk. Senate Republicans think that’s why McConnell floated the idea of possibly delinking Ukraine money and border security during a meeting Wednesday by telling colleagues that it will be a heavy lift to pass a border security package in the middle of a Republican presidential primary. “It’s probably done in the sense that I don’t think the House is going to be for the end product, and I think it’s clear where the nominee of our party’s going to be,” said Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), referring to former President Trump’s efforts to derail Senate the border security bill. A GOP senator who requested anonymity to talk about internal party dynamics said McConnell knows that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) won’t bring the bill to the House floor. The senator said Trump, who opposes the Senate’s border bill, has “a lot of influence on the House and particularly on Johnson.” “If he takes [the Senate bill] up, I think he’s a goner,” the lawmaker added. A Senate Republican aide said McConnell appears to be looking for an “off-ramp” to separate Ukraine funding from border security legislation. A GOP senator who attended a special conference meeting on Ukraine funding held Wednesday afternoon said McConnell is “laying the predicate” for moving Ukraine funding without border reform components and speculated he may try to include military aid for Ukraine in a regular spending package to fund the government through the rest of this year. Congress must pass two funding packages by March 1 and March 8 to avoid partial government shutdowns. Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), McConnell’s top deputy, told reporters Thursday that leaders still hope to pass Ukraine funding and border security reforms in the same package but acknowledged the bill faces a “critical moment” and leaders may have to switch to “Plan B.” Asked what Plan B would be, Thune quipped: “Hold that thought.” Trump’s easy victories in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have had a huge impact on the Capitol Hill politics surrounding the border talks. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) chief of staff, Brett Horton, sent a blunt message to Senate Republican offices when he told them at a lunch meeting Thursday that the Senate deal to fund Ukraine and secure the border won’t even get a vote in the House. “Scalise’s chief got up and the first thing he said was, ‘This border bill, if you send it to us, is dead on arrival. Dead.’ He said, ‘I just want to be clear about that, we will not take it up, we will not vote on it. It is dead. End of discussion,’” said a Senate Republican source familiar with the comments at the meeting. “So that sent a message,” the source said. A person familiar with the House GOP leadership aide’s comments noted that Johnson and Scalise have said publicly that they would oppose a Senate bill that reportedly includes 50,000 new green cards, expedited work permits and enhanced deportation authority that would only kick in after more than 4,000 or 5,000 migrants cross the border in a day.

Speaker Johnson: Senate border deal ‘dead on arrival’ in House - Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a Friday letter to his colleagues that Senate legislation addressing the border and aid to Ukraine and other countries would have been “dead on arrival” in the House, if reports about its terms are true. The letter follows separate signals from House leadership aides and conservatives in the House and Senate that the supplemental package has no future in the House, even if approved by the Senate. “I wanted to provide a brief update regarding the supplemental and the border, since the Senate appears unable to reach any agreement. If rumors about the contents of the draft proposal are true, it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway,” Johnson said in a letter to colleagues. The letter comes as Senate Republicans are searching for an alternative plan on how to get aid to Ukraine across the finish line. The Ukraine support, which has its own critics in the GOP, was coupled with border talks as a means of securing its passage. But the coupling has actually made it more difficult for the Ukraine support to move forward, due to seemingly intractable policy and political concerns related to the border talks. Former President Trump’s wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary and his opposition to the border deal is a big part of the problem: Trump sees the package as not going far enough. He’s also said to want to use the border issue against President Biden in November. Johnson’s message about the bill being “dead on arrival” in the House was also reiterated to Republican chiefs of staff Thursday by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) chief of staff. In his letter, the Speaker turned to the next major action coming from House Republicans that will come in retaliation of border policies: impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who Johnson charged has “wilfully ignored and actively undermined our nation’s immigration laws.” A markup of impeachment articles against Mayorkas in the House Homeland Security Committee is scheduled for Tuesday. “A vote on the floor will be held as soon as possible thereafter,” Johnson said of the impeachment articles, adding that “public opinion polls show the country has overwhelmingly sided with us on this issue.” The Department of Homeland Security wrote in a memo earlier this month that in trying to impeach Mayorkas, House Republicans are “wasting time on baseless and pointless political attacks” that are “harmful to the Department and its workforce and undercuts vital work across countless national security priorities.” The Speaker also raised the H.R. 2 Secure the Border Act, which House Republicans passed last year, as containing “the core legislative reforms that are necessary to actually compel the Biden Administration to resolve the border catastrophe.” That bill, which includes restarting the “Remain in Mexico” policy and restarting construction of a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, has conversely been declared dead on arrival in the Senate. And he pointed back to his requests of Biden to take executive action to stem the flow of migrants at the border, including by restarting Trump-era policies. “If [Biden] wants our conference to view him as a good faith negotiator, he can start with the stroke of a pen,” Johnson said.

Biden vows to shut down border when it ‘becomes overwhelmed’ if Congress passes bill - President Biden promised to shut down the border “when it becomes overwhelmed” if Congress passes a bipartisan border security bill.“Let’s be clear,” Biden said in a statement Friday. “What’s been negotiated would — if passed into law — be the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country. It would give me, as President, a new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed. And if given that authority, I would use it the day I sign the bill into law.”Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) said if reports about the terms of the deal are accurate, legislation on border security and Ukraine aid would have been “dead on arrival” in the House, in a letter to colleagues Friday.“I wanted to provide a brief update regarding the supplemental and the border, since the Senate appears unable to reach any agreement. If rumors about the contents of the draft proposal are true, it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway,” Johnson said.The United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) confirmed that in December, there were 302,034 encounters at the southern border, setting a record high.“CBP continues to use all available resources to ensure the safety and security of our agents and officers, and the migrants who are often misled and victimized by the transnational criminal organizations,” Troy A. Miller, a senior official for CBP, said in a statement Friday. “But as we have repeatedly said, CBP and our federal partners need additional support from Congress so that we can continue to effectuate consequences for those who do not use established lawful pathways.” Former President Trump has worked to try killing a border deal, in an attempt to prevent Biden from getting a victory on legislation.

House Majority Whip: Biden only interested in border because it’s a ‘political liability’ House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) criticized President Biden Saturday for what he believes to be an increased interest in securing the southern border, as lawmakers continue to battle over a Senate-backed border deal. While negotiations have been ongoing for weeks, Emmer said the House still has not seen legislative text for the proposed bill. He also criticized the president for undoing border measures put in place under former President Trump and questioned his recent vow to provide more security. “The only reason that President Biden is even interested in discussing this issue, Neil, is because it has now become a political liability for the White House,” Emmer said in an interview with Fox News’ Neil Cavuto. “Show us the text,” he added later. “Let’s make sure that what we do on the southern border is a substantive fix. Not just words.” His comments come after Biden vowed to shut down the border “when it becomes overwhelmed” — capped around 5,000 migrants a day, per reports of the proposed deal — if Congress passes a bipartisan border security bill. “Let’s be clear,” Biden said in a statement Friday. “What’s been negotiated would — if passed into law — be the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country.” “It would give me, as President, a new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed,” he continued. “And if given that authority, I would use it the day I sign the bill into law.” Emmer said if Biden doesn’t restore Trump-era policies such as “Remain in Mexico,” — where asylum seekers were required to wait in Mexico while their processing was complete — he isn’t optimistic that the votes would even be there to bring the deal to the floor for a vote.

House panel advances tax deal with resounding bipartisan vote - A deal to reduce taxes for businesses and increase the child tax credit (CTC) made it out of the House Ways and Means Committee with broad bipartisan support Friday. The tax deal advanced with 40 votes in favor and only three opposed. A last-minute substitution amendment to the $79 billion tax bill tweaked it slightly, bringing its total savings to $399 million from $262 million over the 10-year budget window, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). The cost of the proposal — $33 billion for the CTC expansion plus another $33 billion for business breaks — are offset almost exactly by a $77 billion revenue bump achieved by canceling the employee retention tax credit (ERC). During the Friday markup of the bill, Democrats expressed frustration that it didn’t include a larger allotment for the expanded child tax credit, which raised millions of children out of poverty when it was boosted and made fully refundable in the wake of the pandemic. Amendments to further boost the CTC by making it fully refundable and sending it out in monthly payments were proposed by Democrats but shot down by the committee. “The child tax credit, or CTC policy, as written in this bill does not reach families who need it the most,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), who proposed one of the amendments, said during the hearing. “Someone making the federal minimum wage and working full time, [making] approximately $15,000 a year, would not earn enough to receive the full credit.” Still, key Democrats, including ranking member Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.), voted in favor of the plan. Only Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.) and Gwen Moore (D-Wis.) voted against it. While the bill is revenue-neutral and provides $33 billion in deductions for research costs and other business expenses, Republicans have boasted much larger benefits will accrue to companies as a result of the deal. ​​“This legislation locks in over $600 billion in proven pro-growth, pro-America tax policies with key provisions that support over 21 million jobs,” Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said in a statement released along with the announcement of the deal earlier this week. Some analysts say this is why the nominal parity in the legislation between the business credits and CTC expansion is not really accurate. Joe Hughes, a federal policy expert with the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, told The Hill the $600 billion figure comes from the possibility that Republicans will work to extend them beyond 2025, when they’re currently set to expire.

Biden to pause natural gas export approvals as it updates how to assess projects - The Biden administration will pause approvals of some natural gas export facilities as it considers changing how to evaluate them, the administration announced Friday. The current analyses the Energy Department uses to decide whether to authorize exports of liquified natural gas (LNG) do not “adequately account” for factors like domestic energy costs or planet-warming emissions, the White House said in a fact sheet. As a result, the administration is temporarily pausing pending decisions on whether to approve exports to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement. The pause will be in effect until the Energy Department can update how it conducts underlying analyses. An administration official told reporters that an update would take a few months, followed by a public comment period before it is final. President Biden, in a written statement, invoked climate change as he discussed the pause. “During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment,” he said. “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time,” he added. The pause only applies to new export projects and is not expected to impact existing exports. There will also be exceptions for emergencies. An administration official told reporters that four projects — two large and two small — currently have applications before the department and would be affected by the pause. A controversial pending project, known as CP2, is not expected to immediately be impacted as its approval is not yet before the Biden administration, the official said. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters on Thursday that the update was coming due to a dramatic increase in U.S. natural gas exports. U.S. capacity to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) has more than tripled since 2018 and is on track to triple again based on projects that are already under construction, she said. “As our exports increase, we must review export applications using the most comprehensive, up-to-date analysis of the economic, environmental and national security considerations,” Granholm added. The announcement comes as progressives and environmental activists have shone a spotlight on the natural gas export projects — lamenting the climate implications of increased fossil fuel shipments. Politically, the move comes as at least some progressives have expressed disappointment in the administration over issues including the war in Gaza. And while Biden has signed significant climate legislation, progressives have also pushed back on his approval of the Willow Project — a major oil project in Alaska.

Biden bucks Obama’s legacy on climate and gas with LNG export pause - The Biden administration and Democrats are pushing back against a years-long trend in energy policy that was set in motion by their own former leader. In tandem with actions aimed at protecting the climate, former President Obama pursued an aggressive policy of natural gas exports — one which President Biden continued for most of his first term. Early Friday morning, however, Biden — under heavy pressure from many in his own party — signaled a step back, announcing a pause on permits for the segment of the vast fleet of new gas export terminals still awaiting federal permission to build. During that pause, the president wrote, the administration will “take a hard look at the impacts of [liquified natural gas, or LNG] exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment.” Environmentalists, congressional Democrats and communities in the shadow of the export terminals have pushed Biden on the issue, fearing that the gas terminals will fuel an enormous boom in the burning of the planet-heating chemical and undercut renewables, potentially hamstringing attempts to slow climate change. President Biden walks with former President Obama on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Philadelphia during a midterms campaign rally. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) The gas industry contends that because the fuel burns cleaner than coal, the expansion of U.S. gas exports will help the world at large cut emissions — and their restriction will hand the initiative to less responsible actors. Critics, however, have pointed to findings that even relatively small amounts of leakage from natural gas pipelines can make the fuel as damaging to the climate as coal — findings the industry disputes. The Biden administration’s decision to implement the pause and review LNG exports’ impacts marks an elevation of critics’ concerns. It also represents a sea change from Obama’s tenure, when the White House didn’t see the themes of climate action and gas boosterism as contradictory, and when the current boom in U.S. gas exports began. Back then, the White House embraced the idea that gas could be a “bridge fuel” connecting a largely coal-based U.S. power system to a glittering future of renewables — and that U.S. exports of fracked gas could do the same thing for the world at large.

Manchin promises to investigate Biden natural gas export freeze -Senate Energy Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), one of the Biden administration’s most vocal intraparty critics on energy issues, vowed an investigation into the newly announced pause on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export approvals. In a statement Friday morning, Manchin implied the decision to implement the pause was based on political considerations rather than “indisputable facts,” citing LNG production’s economic benefits and the role of American exports in isolating the Russian energy sector after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ”I have always said that our first concern must be protecting American consumers and growing American businesses, and we need a safety valve in place to ensure Americans aren’t unnecessarily stuck paying a premium for the abundant resources we’re blessed to have,” Manchin said. “But as the superpower of the world, we also have a responsibility to our allies and trading partners who, in our absence, may have no other choice but to turn to countries that don’t share our values. That’s been made abundantly clear in the last two years as we have been able to step in to replace Russian natural gas to cut off funds for Putin’s bombs and bullets.” Manchin, who is not seeking reelection this year, said he will hold hearings of the energy committee on the decision to “unveil the facts about the true state of play in the markets, this Administration’s motivations, and their implications.” The Biden administration confirmed Friday it will halt export permit approvals while it assesses impacts on emissions and domestic energy costs, saying the current export permitting process does not sufficiently assess these factors. The delay will specifically apply to countries that lack free-trade agreements with the U.S. Existing export projects will not be affected. “During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment,” President Biden said in a statement. “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.” Manchin has frequently blasted the Biden administration’s energy and environmental policies, sinking the White House’s ambitious Build Back Better climate and infrastructure package earlier in the president’s tenure by withholding his vote. Manchin later voted for the smaller Inflation Reduction Act, but he has been a harsh detractor of its implementation, particularly pertaining to electric vehicles.

Senators call for reform as National Flood Insurance Program faces lapse - Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) led calls to reform the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) during a hearing Thursday, accusing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) of lying to homeowners about their insurance rates. The FEMA-run program provides flood insurance to property owners, renters and businesses. Unless lawmakers move to reauthorize, it is set to lapse on Feb. 2, 2024. Kennedy said at a Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs hearing that the program needs to be reworked to make it look “like somebody designed it on purpose.” In September, FEMA announced that more than 1 million policyholders would see a decrease in their premiums when their policy was renewed. That’s out of about 5 million policyholders total. But Kennedy said he had not met anyone who actually saw their rate drop. “This is just an excuse to raise premiums and they don’t care,” Kennedy said. “The whole purpose of the National Flood Insurance Program was to provide a product that people can afford.” Instead, he pointed to people in Louisiana who saw their premiums increase by up to five times. Members of the committee have introduced legislation to reform the program by capping the rate increase at 9 percent, instead of the 18 percent it currently allows for most policy holders. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), one of the sponsors of the bill, said the cap is necessary to protect policyholders from being priced out. “What happens is that families who are forced to drop their insurance coverage due to rising costs and later suffer damage in future disasters? That’s the ultimate disaster to them.” With insurance being more affordable, more people would be able to afford insurance through the program, which in turn helps widen the pool, spread out the risk and reduce cost, Menendez said. The National Flood Insurance Program Reform Act also suggests vouchers for low- and middle-class families if premiums become too high, additional oversight measures for insurance companies and increased efforts to identify and reduce flood risks. “If we know right now which homes are most at risk, we shouldn’t wait until the flood to step in and help,” Menendez said. “For every dollar of mitigation, the federal government saves $7 in disaster relief payments.” Michael Hector, the president and CEO of Greater New Orleans Inc., told senators that while the program is expensive — estimated to cost $36 million over the past few years — FEMA said it has saved about $120 billion in losses. That puts the net benefit at $85 billion. Hector said the program must be reformed and reauthorized, as a lapse would severely destabilize the national housing market and harm homeowners. “The reality is that the NFIP program is about allowing the working coast and rivering parts of America to keep working,” he said.

Senate considers flood insurance reforms as program faces another deadline - The Senate Banking Committee renewed a push to extend the flood insurance program, which can be critical to mortgage bankers' ability to close housing deals, ahead of the program's expiration March 8. Continued funding for the National Flood Insurance Program could have been a casualty of the near-government shutdown in the fall of last year, a move that would have endangered thousands of closings on home sales per week. Although the program enjoys bipartisan support, efforts to reform it and make it sustainable for a growing number of natural disasters and costly flooding has, so far, hit dead ends in Congress. Instead, the program has seen 28 short-term extensions since 2017. Flood insurance is mandatory for any property in a high-risk area that carries a mortgage from a federally backed or federally regulated lender. Should there be a lapse in the flood insurance program, the program cannot sell new flood insurance policies, nor can it renew old ones — though existing policies would remain in effect until their expiration date. Concerns arose over affordability at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Thursday. Sens. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., Bill Cassidy, R-La., and John Kennedy, R-La., have introduced a bill to make the program more affordable to homeowners, capping rate increases to 9%, among other provisions. But lawmakers said that changes made by the Biden administration have actually made flood insurance more expensive. The new pricing model developed by the Biden administration — known as Risk Rating 2.0 — was intended to lower premiums by more precisely calculating risk, but the lawmakers said that's not how it's played out. "They said a million people of the five million people [with flood insurance policies] will see their rates go down," Kennedy said. "I haven't talked to a single person saying their rates go down. This is just an excuse to raise premiums and they don't care. The whole purpose of the National Flood Insurance Program is to provide a product that people can afford in my state." "Since FEMA recently changed its rating methodology, the program has lost 150,000 policyholders. FEMA itself has estimated that it will lose 1 million policyholders by the end of the decade due to the premium increases," he said. "In Paterson, New Jersey, where the median household income is $50,000 a year, policyholders will see their premiums increase from an average of $1,500 a year to an average of $4,000 a year. In Keansburg, New Jersey, where the median household income is $76,000, 1,000 policyholders will go from an average of $1,300 to $3,500. The list goes on."

Biden administration to forgive $4.9B in debt for 73,600 student borrowers - The Biden administration announced Friday it was forgiving almost $5 billion for some 73,600 student loan borrowers. The White House said more than half, almost 44,000, of the borrowers who received student debt relief Friday are teachers, nurses, firefighters and other individuals who have been on the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program for 10 years. The other almost 30,000 borrowers have been on an income-driven repayment program for 20 years. With the announcement, President Biden brought up the total number of borrowers who have seen debt forgiveness under his administration to 3.7 million. “My Administration is able to deliver relief to these borrowers — and millions more — because of fixes we made to broken student loan programs that were preventing borrowers from getting relief they were entitled to under the law,” Biden said in a statement. In the announcement, he highlighted student loan accomplishments in his administration such as increasing federal Pell Grants, making changes to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and implementing the SAVE income-driven repayment option. He also pointed out after the Supreme Court defeat of his universal student debt relief proposal, the administration has been working on another plan for mass loan forgiveness, although it seems the new path will not reach as many borrowers as the previous one. “From Day One of my Administration, I vowed to improve the student loan system so that a higher education provides Americans with opportunity and prosperity — not unmanageable burdens of student loan debt. I won’t back down from using every tool at our disposal to get student loan borrowers the relief they need to reach their dreams,” Biden said.

State officials warn 1.5 million families could lose home heating benefits without additional funding -- If Congress cuts home energy assistance funds, 1.5 million families could lose benefits, a group representing state-level officials is warning. In a press release on Tuesday, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association called for Congress to maintain base funding for the energy assistance program and also an additional $2 billion that was added last year. “If Congress does not include the additional $2 billion again in [fiscal 2024], then states will be forced to cut 1.5 million families from the program and many will be forced to scale back their cooling programs,” it said. The program, known as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), helps low-income households pay heating and cooling costs. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association cited “record” energy debt faced by Americans this year, saying that 16 percent of households are behind on their energy bills. As of December, Americans owed a total of $20.3 billion in energy costs, up from $17.8 billion in January 2023. The warning comes as tense government funding negotiations are ongoing and right-wing Republicans have been particularly vocal about pushing for cuts. The LIHEAP program typically has bipartisan support and bills proposed last year in the House and Senate maintain the $4 billion base level.

Nearly 65,000 pregnancies from rape have happened in states with abortion bans: Study - In the 14 states with abortion bans, there have been nearly 65,000 pregnancies resulting from rape during the time since those bans went into place, a new study estimates.To arrive at that troubling number, researchers turned to data from federal surveys on crime and sexual violence. Their findings were publishedJan. 24 in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine."Restricting abortion access to survivors of rapecan have particularly devastating consequences," the journal's editors wrote in anote accompanying the new research. "Whether these survivors of rape had illegal abortions, received medication abortion through the mail, traveled to other states or carried the child to birth is unknown."But other research has found there have been fewer than 10 abortions each month in states with bans. That suggests most rape victims were not able to get abortions in thestates where they live, even those where the law allows exceptions for rape.Nearly 70% of adults say abortion should be legal if the pregnancy resulted from rape, according to a 2022 survey from Pew Research Center. But the new study suggests the challenges of putting those exceptions into practice are daunting. "Like many exceptions written into abortion bans, an exception for rape victims may appear to be a reasonable solution but in practice can create more trauma and danger for patients who have already experienced a traumatic event," Dr. Sami Heywood, an ob/gyn in Illinois and a fellow with the advocacy group Physicians for Reproductive Health, told CNN."No other health care is reserved only for people who can prove a crime took place," said Heywood, who was not involved in the research. "That's not an ethical way to practice medicine. It is cruel to force people who have already been victimized to jump through legal and logistical barriers that cause further harm."Rape victims may also face unique challenges when navigating their pregnancy, experts say. "Those who become pregnant after rape may take longer to recognize a pregnancy than other pregnant people, and there may be factors related to the trauma response that accounts for this," . That may mean medication abortion—which can only be used up to 10 weeks—is not an option, and victims may have to travel particularly long distances to find a provider, Perry explained. Even more challenging is the fact that often rape victims know their attacker, and may even live with them. "It may be especially impossible for them to travel out of state to get abortion care. It may be especially dangerous for them to try to order pills online the way that some people are doing," lead study author Dr. Samuel Dickman, medical director of Planned Parenthood of Montana, told CNN. "It's an added burden in so many ways."

White House clinic improperly distributed controlled substances: Report - White House clinic improperly distributed controlled substances and provided care for ineligible staffers, according to a report released by the Defense Department’s Office of Inspector General. The report was issued after a multiyear investigation was launched following the spring 2018 Inspector General hotline call where complaints alleged senior medical officers within the White House Medical Unit engaged in “improper medical practices.” In the report, the investigation found that “except for the White House Medical Unit, the National Capital Region executive medicine clinics that we visited did not procure, store, or dispense controlled substances or other prescription medications; rather, they relied on full‑service military treatment facility pharmacies for all pharmaceutical support.” The White House Medical Unit is a military command tasked with taking care of senior administration officials and the president. In the report, the White House Medical unit was giving out substances like morphine and oxycodone directly, instead of directing the patients to the pharmacy. The prescriptions were issued without verifying if the recipient was verified to have access to White House medical care. Some medical providers left due to the way the unit was run. “As a result, the Military Health System did not bill non‑DoD beneficiaries for services rendered, and we found that the DoD funded and resourced care for an average of 6 to 20 non‑DoD beneficiary patients per week,” the report said. “Multiple former White House Medical Unit medical providers stated that they requested an early departure from the unit due to the unit’s practices.” During the Trump administration, the White House Medical Office spent thousands of dollars on branded medication rather than opting for generic alternatives that are less expensive, according to the report. “Over a 3‑year period, the White House Medical Unit spent an estimated $46,500 for brand name Ambien, which is 174 times more expensive than the generic equivalent,” the report said. “Over the same period, the White House Medical Unit also spent an estimated $98,000 for brand name Provigil, which is 55 times more expensive than the generic equivalent.” Although the report found many irregularities, it was able to detail some recommendations moving forward. Procedures should be developed for properly storing medication. An oversight plan should be developed for the White House Medical Unit, along with bettering procedures to properly dispense and prescribe medication.

Raskin demands Trump Org turn over business records in probe of foreign payments - The top Democrat on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee is asking the Trump Organization to turn over the entirety of its business records, arguing it’s the only way the panel can understand the full extent to which former President Trump profited from foreign governments while in office. The letter from Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) follows a report from the committee concluding Trump earned nearly $8 million from foreign governments while in office. Trump failed to disclose those profits to Congress, something Raskin said violates the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, which bars leaders from accepting anything of value from foreign governments without the blessing of lawmakers. Digging into a letter from the Trump Organization after it rebuffed his calls earlier this year to return the profits, Raskin said the written rejection from the Trump team is an “admission that, without congressional consent, he collected while in office at least $7.8 million from at least 20 foreign governments—with the People’s Republic of China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia being his leading patrons.” Democrats acknowledged the limitations in their report when it was released earlier this month. They note gaps in the information they received relative to Trump’s business empire, as well as the fact that accounting firm Mazars stopped producing records won via court battle, citing a notification they got from Trump’s attorneys that referenced a conversation with the panel’s GOP leadership. However, the lion’s share of the documented foreign money — some $5.6 million — flowed from China, which, along with other countries, primarily patronized three properties: Trump hotels in Washington and Las Vegas and Trump Tower in New York. That includes $5.4 million spent over nearly three years by the Chinese state-affiliated Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), which had secured space at Trump Tower. The Trump Organization wrote in a letter last week that many of the leases that contributed millions toward that figure were signed before Trump was elected and noted that he donated those profits as well as his presidential salary to the Treasury. To Raskin, that largely served as confirmation of the committee’s work. “You conspicuously do not dispute the millions of dollars that foreign governments spent at Trump-owned properties, the identities of the corrupt and autocratic governments that spent those sums, or the myriad policy favors and changes that those governments were seeking to obtain from the Trump Administration—and, in numerous cases, did obtain—at the time they were filling Trump’s pockets,” Raskin wrote in the letter obtained by The Hill. “Nor do you dispute that the former President never came to Congress to disclose the foreign government payments he wanted to accept or to seek congressional consent to keep them—as the Foreign Emoluments Clause required him to do.” Trump’s team wrote that the “vast majority” of foreign government funding it took in while he was in office came from leases like those secured by ICBC and that it turned over 100 percent of the “estimated profits” from its hospitality properties. But Raskin said by relying on estimates of profits and only from Trump’s hotels and towers, they are excluding income that may have come in through some 500 different Trump-affiliated businesses. “[Trump] did the one thing the Constitution clearly prohibits: he accepted payments from foreign governments without congressional approval. In any case, you don’t quantify what ‘vast majority’ actually means. We’d like to do an independent audit to find out whether this statement is true,” Raskin wrote. Earlier work from the committee found Trump donated around $450,000 in profits from his businesses to the Treasury over his four years in office — a figure that represents a significant gap from the almost $8 million in profits found by Democrats as they reviewed a fraction of Trump business records. Raskin also took a dig at an argument Trump’s attorneys recently made in his election interference case, arguing the trial should be postponed until 2026 due to the volume of evidence they’d have to review in the case, suggesting that if stacked it would reach higher than the Washington Monument. Raskin suggested the true scope of Trump’s foreign profits could also stretch as high. “Perhaps if you pile up all the foreign state money former President Trump received while in office, the stack will reach as high as the Washington Monument, and we could call it the ‘Washington Emolument,’” he wrote.

Former Trump lawyer says it’s ‘absolutely’ possible former president will be convicted - Joe Tacopina, one of former President Trump’s New York trial lawyers, offered an unfavorable prediction for his former client’s ongoing legal battles and contended it is “absolutely possible” Trump will be convicted in one of his federal criminal cases. In an interview with MSNBC’s the Rev. Al Sharpton on Saturday, Tacopina called some of Trump’s federal cases “serious” and “not to be taken lightly.” When pressed by Sharpton if it is possible Trump could end up convicted in one of his criminal cases, Tacopina said, “Oh, is it possible? Absolutely.” “You have a jury of 12 who’s going to ultimately decide this,” Tacopina continued. “Jack Smith is a federal prosecutor who I knew from his days in Brooklyn. … They’re serious prosecutors, and these are federal cases and you have a jury here.” Trump faces four felony counts in Washington, D.C., over allegations he was involved in a conspiracy to defraud the U.S. and stood at the center of a campaign to block the certification of votes for President Biden on Jan. 6, 2021. In a follow-up question, Sharpton asked Tacopina to clarify if he believed they are “good cases” and “not just politics.” “Look, do I think there’s a political bent to some of this, some of the way this was gone about? Yes, I do,” Tacopina responded. “Do I think these cases are invalid cases? Look, the grand jury voted to indict, and he’s going to have to face a jury in Washington, D.C.” The former president is also facing charges in Florida, Georgia and New York City in addition to the nation’s capital. The former president faces 91 felony counts across four federal and state indictments. This includes 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in New York City in connection with alleged hush payments to cover up an alleged affair.Tacopina previously represented Trump in the hush money case, along with his appeal of a sexual battery civil lawsuit brought by longtime advice columnist E. Jean Carroll, but confirmed earlier this month he would withdraw from both cases.. Tacopina is a former Brooklyn prosecutor and is known for his representation of high-profile clients, including Michael Jackson, Alex Rodriguez, Meek Mill and Don Imus. Tacopina over the weekend said three of the trial locations — New York City, Washington and Atlanta — are “not particularly big Trump venues.” “So that’s going to be something to really have to grapple with there,” he said. “And you can’t say, ‘There’s no way he’ll get convicted.'” He added later he believes the prosecutors “believe in their cases” when asked if there is a political angle to the cases. Trump’s charges in Florida stem from allegations over his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House, while charges in Georgia accuse him of a plot to overturn the 2020 election results in the Peach State.

Georgia judge pumps brakes on Fani Willis deposition in prosecutor’s divorce case - A Georgia judge put a pause Monday on Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s (D) scheduled deposition in divorce proceedings involving a top prosecutor in the 2020 election interference case against former President Trump. Special prosecutor Nathan Wade’s divorce came into the spotlight after one of Trump’s co-defendants, Michael Roman, accused Wade and Willis of being involved in an improper romantic relationship that renders the district attorney’s office’s sweeping racketeering indictment “fatally defective.” Andrea Hastings, a lawyer for Wade’s estranged wife, argued Monday that Willis has “unique knowledge” about Wade’s marriage and that her position as district attorney shouldn’t protect her from divulging that information to assist in dividing the Wades’s marital assets. Willis was subpoenaed earlier this month in the ongoing divorce case between Wade and his wife, Joycelyn, which began in 2021. “She’s trying to hide under the shield of her position,” Hastings said of Willis. Willis’s lawyer, Cinque Axam, said Monday that any knowledge Willis obtains could also be provided by Wade. “You’ve got two partners in the case, one who is alleged to have some extramarital affair with Ms. Willis,” Axam argued. “If that is the case — if that is true, [Wade] has that information.” “There are other means by which that information can be achieved in this case,” he said. Axam also said Willis does not share any bank accounts with Wade, nor does she determine how he spends his money — “no matter where it comes from,” he said. Last week, Wade’s wife in court filings accused Wade of purchasing multiple flights for himself and Willis in the months before they charged Trump and 18 others with attempting to subvert the state’s 2020 election results. The documents include bank statements that appear to show flights to San Francisco and Miami as the Fulton County district attorney’s office investigated Trump and his allies.

E. Jean Carroll trial paused over Trump lawyer’s COVID exposure - — E. Jean Carroll’s defamation trial against former President Trump was postponed Monday after a juror and one of Trump’s lawyers reported feeling ill. U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, who oversees the trial, announced in the courtroom he would postpone the trial for at least one day. “We will take the day off,” Kaplan said. Kaplan said one of the jurors reported feeling ill on his way into court, and he was sent home and instructed to take a COVID-19 test. Alina Habba, one of Trump’s attorneys, said she also was feeling ill Monday and recently was exposed to COVID-19 at a dinner with her parents. The judge said Habba and fellow Trump attorney Michael Madaio took COVID-19 tests earlier in the morning and were negative. Trump was briefly in the courtroom with Habba on Monday. Neither wore masks. Carroll is seeking more than $10 million in defamation damages over Trump denying he sexually assaulted the longtime advice columnist in the 1990s. Trump has already been found liable and the jury will only decide damages.

Trump walks out of court in middle of E. Jean Carroll closing arguments Former President Trump walked out of the Manhattan federal courtroom where his sexual abuse defamation trial is ongoing, just after a lawyer for writer E. Jean Carroll had begun issuing closing remarks Friday.It’s unclear why Trump left the courtroom, though it occurred shortly after Carroll lawyer Roberta Kaplan said the former president “has tried to normalize conduct that is abnormal.” After Trump left, Judge Lewis Kaplan directed the defense — and, by name, adviser Boris Epshteyn — to remain seated, CNN and ABC News reported.“The record will reflect that Mr. Trump just rose and walked out of the courtroom,” said Kaplan, who is not related to Carroll’s lawyer.The former president did not return to the courtroom until his lawyer, Alina Habba, began the defense’s closing argument.Trump’s abrupt departure from court is not a first. During his civil fraud trial, which concluded earlier this month, he huffed out of the courtroom after a judge denied the ending of the case in his favor when Trump’s ex-fixer and personal attorney, Michael Cohen, contradicted himself on the witness stand.Carroll is suing Trump for defamation over his 2019 denials that he sexually abused her decades earlier. The former Elle columnist secured a verdict last year finding Trump liable for sexual abuse and awarding her $5 million.Now, she’s seeking more than $24 million in damages for Trump’s denials. Kaplan already found Trump liable in the defamation case, so the current jury need only decide how much Trump must pay Carroll.Earlier Friday morning, Kaplan admonished Habba, Trump’s lawyer, for continuing to talk when he told her she was finished. “You are on the verge of spending some time in the lockup. Now sit down,” the judge told Habba.

Trump must pay $83.3 million to E. Jean Carroll, jury says - Ajury said that Donald Trump should pay $83.3 million in damages Friday, an eye-popping sum that marks the sharpest legal setback for a former president now entangled in multiple criminal and civil cases while he campaigns for the White House. The verdict was the second time over the past year that a jury has awarded E. Jean Carroll millions of dollars in damages from Trump. She hailed Friday's decision as a "huge defeat for every bully who has tried to keep a woman down." The former president was not present as the verdict was read, having departed the Manhattan courthouse at around 4 p.m. ET. In a social media post, Trump derided the verdict as "absolutely ridiculous." Carroll, a former magazine columnist, alleged Trump raped her in a department store in the mid-1990s and then defamed her when he denied her claim.

Maine secretary of state appeals ruling deferring Trump ballot decision --Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) appealed a ruling Friday that delays a decision on whether to kick former President Trump off the state’s primary ballot under the 14th Amendment until the Supreme Court resolves whether he is disqualified, according to court documents.Bellows last month ruled that Trump could not appear on Maine’s primary ballot, making Maine the second state to do so. Trump then appealed the decision to state court.On Wednesday, the judge declined to weigh in on the merits, instead saying that Trump can remain on the ballot until the U.S. Supreme Court resolves a similar case from Colorado. Bellows must afterward reassess her decision, the judge ruled.Bellows had warned that punting the decision on Trump’s eligibility would put Maine in a “precarious position,” saying voters may end up casting their votes with Trump’s qualification in doubt. The state’s Super Tuesday, March 5 primary is fast approaching, and the Supreme Court won’t hear oral arguments until next month, Bellows noted.“A stay of this proceeding, followed by a February decision from the U.S. Supreme Court, may ultimately force the Secretary and her staff to scramble to minimize damage to the integrity of the March 5, 2024 election,” the Maine attorney general’s office, representing Bellows, had written in court filings. Bellows filed a notice of appeal Friday, bringing the dispute to the state’s top court, known as the Law Court in this context. Maine state law prescribes a speedy timeline for the court to act. The parties will now have four days to file their written briefs, and the court is obligated to issue its decision within 14 days of the judge’s ruling from Wednesday.The 14th Amendment prohibits someone from holding “any office … under the United States” if they “engaged in insurrection” after taking an oath to support the Constitution. Challengers in Maine and elsewhere have argued Trump’s actions surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack mean he should be kept off the ballot.

Appeals court declines further review of Trump Jan. 6 gag order -- A federal appeals court declined an effort Tuesday by former President Trump to have his challenge to a gag order in his election interference case heard by the full court, teeing up a likely Supreme Court battle over restrictions to his speech. A three-judge panel of the District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals had largely upheld a lower court ruling restricting Trump’s speech in the case. That decision largely affirmed a prior ruling from Judge Tanya Chutkan, who barred Trump from making statements that “target” foreseeable witnesses, court staff and prosecutors.The appeals court refined that directive, barring Trump from any statements “made with the intent to materially interfere with, or to cause others to materially interfere with” the course of the case.The D.C. Circuit’s refusal to rehear the case is likely to bring the issue to the Supreme Court next. Trump could petition the justices to review the gag order and also ask them to put it on hold in the meantime.It is one of multiple battles in Trump’s many legal cases that have been barreling toward the justices. Already, the Supreme Court took up an appeal of a ruling kicking him off Colorado’s ballot under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection ban. Oral arguments are less than three weeks away.Agreeing to review Trump’s gag order, however, would mark the justices’ first intervention in any of Trump’s four criminal cases since he was charged.In D.C., special counsel Jack Smith charged Trump with four felonies, accusing him of conspiring to subvert the 2020 election results in an attempt to remain in power. Trump pleaded not guilty.The Supreme Court may also soon confront another battle in the case: whether Trump has criminal immunity from official acts during his presidency.The Supreme Court declined request to leapfrog the normal appeals process to immediately decide Trump’s immunity, which would’ve made it easier for Trump to go to trial earlier, instead allowing it to progress through the D.C. Circuit. But the gag order battle has now completed that process, making the Supreme Court the next avenue for Trump to appeal.

Trump hints at VP pick: ‘People won’t be that surprised’ - Former President Trump on Saturday suggested he has his pick for vice president and hinted people will not “be that surprised” by his choice of running mate. Asked by Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier in New Hampshire about when he will decide who could join him on the ticket if he secures the nomination, Trump said, “Well, it’s never really had that much of an effect on an election, which is an amazing thing, both election and primary. It’s never really had much of an effect.” “I may or may not really [decide] something over the next couple of months. There’s no rush to that. It won’t have any impact at all. The person that I think I like is a very good person, a pretty standard. I think people won’t be that surprised, but I would say there’s probably a 25 percent chance that would be that person,” Trump continued. Asked if Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) — who dropped out of the GOP primary race in November and endorsed Trump on Friday — is on the list, Trump described the senator as a “great guy” while highlighting other political figures from the Palmetto State. “You know, [Scott] endorsed me. There’s an example, [Nikki Haley] comes from South Carolina, Tim Scott is from South Carolina. But if you look [at] the governor, great governor, another senator [Lindsey Graham]. We happen to like Lindsey,” Trump said. “But, [Gov. Henry McMaster (R)] knows it very well. He endorsed me. It’s very hard for a governor to endorse somebody when you haven’t … I mean, Henry McMaster was the lieutenant governor under her and he endorsed me … What does that tell you?” In a Fox News town hall in Iowa earlier this month, Trump indicated he would be willing to consider any of the people who ran against him. “I’ve already started to like [Chris Christie] better,” Trump said, in reference to the former New Jersey governor who dropped out of the primary race earlier this month. Christie and Trump have had a tumultuous relationship over the years, with Christie’s 2024 campaign largely squared on criticizing the former president. Trump has largely kept his cards close to his chest when it comes to who might join him on the Republican ticket. Several Trump allies have urged him to select a female running mate, suggesting names such as Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

Haley leads Biden in New Hampshire poll; president tops Trump, DeSantis -- Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley holds a 3-point lead over President Biden in a hypothetical general election match-up in New Hampshire, while Biden leads former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in separate match-ups, according to poll results released Friday. The Marist New Hampshire poll found Haley leading Biden 47 percent to 44 percent respectively in a hypothetical two-way race. That difference falls within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, effectively tying the two. But when the polls places Biden in head-to-head match-ups with Trump and DeSantis in the Granite State, the president fares better. Biden leads DeSantis 51 percent to 42 percent and leads Trump 52 percent to 45 percent. When the polls look at a hypothetical three-way race between Biden, Trump and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., it shows Biden narrowly beating Trump, 44 percent to 41 percent, and Kennedy receiving 12 percent. Because that difference also falls within the margin of error, Biden and Trump are effectively tied.

Trump warns Haley donors will be ‘permanently barred from the MAGA camp’ -- Former President Trump railed against GOP primary opponent Nikki Haley on Wednesday and warned that anyone who contributes to her campaign would be “permanently barred from the MAGA camp.”“When I ran for Office and won, I noticed that the losing Candidate’s ‘Donors’ would immediately come to me, and want to ‘help out.’ This is standard in Politics, but no longer with me,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.“Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL!” Trump continued, using the nickname “Birdbrain” to refer to Haley.Trump’s direct threat against Haley’s supporters signals a sharpening in his rhetoric, as the former president seeks to compel support from all corners of the GOP.Trump beat Haley in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday by 11 points — a significant edge over his former United Nations ambassador, but closer than his dominant lead in many polls in recent months.

Trump beats Biden with RFK Jr. on ballot: Poll - Former President Trump beats President Biden with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on a hypothetical 2024 ballot, according to a new poll. The latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll showed Trump leading Biden by 7 points in a one-on-one match-up 48 percent to 41 percent, respectively. Trump’s lead rose slightly to 8 points with Kennedy added into the mix. In that hypothetical three-way race, Trump scored 41 percent to Biden’s 33 percent, while Kennedy raked in 18 percent. With independent candidate Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein also added to the ticket alongside Kennedy, Trump’s lead over Biden climbed to 11 points, with 42 percent to the incumbent’s 31 percent. The polling highlights ongoing concerns about whether independent contenders could suck up support for Biden’s reelection bid as many Americans report feeling wary of a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. Nearly two-thirds of voters in the poll said the country “needs another choice” this year if Biden and Trump end up as their parties’ respective nominees. And more than half — or 55 percent — said they’d consider an “independent moderate candidate” in that case. Majorities in the poll also expressed worries about Biden’s age and doubts about his fitness to serve if elected to another four years in the Oval Office, with 51 percent saying they think Biden is “getting worse” as commander in chief. The poll was conducted Jan. 17-18 among 2,346 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

Dean Phillips says Biden has seen physical, communication decline -Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips (Minn.) said President Biden has seen a physical and communication decline, as fears of the president’s age swarm his reelection efforts.“Look, I’m an American, I want to respect my presidents. I do respect President Biden,” Phillips told Fox News’ Sean Hannity.“I’m not seeing cognitive decline. Of course, we’re seeing physical and communication decline. I think that’s self-evident by any video, but I don’t think that is fair,” Phillips continued. “But he’s an 81-year-old man. He’s a human being. Donald Trump’s 77.”Biden is currently 81 and would be 86 years old by the end of a second term. His age is frequently discussed amid the 2024 presidential campaign, as people claim it is time for a younger leader and have concerns over his well-being.Former President Trump has hit Biden over his age, recently trolling Biden in an ad that refers to the White House as a senior living facility. Trump is not much younger than Biden and will turn 78 in June.In the interview Thursday, the Minnesota Democrat reiterated a point he’s made throughout his campaign. Much of the country is looking for change and doesn’t want either Biden or Trump as president again, Phillips said.

Kari Lake calls on Arizona GOP chair to resign after reports of leaked audio -- Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake called on the state’s GOP chair Jeff DeWit to resign on Tuesday after a recording surfaced of the chair appearing to offer Lake money in exchange for not running for office.“He’s gotta resign. We can’t have somebody who is corrupt and compromised running the Republican Party,” Lake told an NBC reporter at former President Trump’s New Hampshire primary victory party.The recording, first reported by The Daily Mail, purports to capture DeWit offering Lake money in exchange for her staying out of politics for two years. The authenticity of the recording could not be verified by The Hill.“There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” DeWit reportedly told Lake in the recording, saying only that these figures were from the “east.”“Just say, is there a number at which,” DeWit begins, before being cut off.“I can be bought? That’s what it’s about,” Lake retorted.“You can take a pause for a couple of years,” DeWit continued. “You can go right back to what you’re doing.” Lake said she would not accept a billion dollars to leave the Senate race.Neither Lake, DeWit nor the Arizona GOP responded to requests for comment.DeWit has served as the state party chair since January of last year, after working as the chief operating officer for Trump’s 2016 and 2020 White House bids.Lake, a former news anchor and failed gubernatorial candidate, has faced push back against her Senate bid. DeWit suggests powers that be within the party would prefer a stronger fund raiser in the race. Lake has been a leading booster of Trump’s false election fraud claims, and fought her own legal battle against her 2022 gubernatorial loss.She said Tuesday that she didn’t have anyone in mind to replace DeWit. “I haven’t given it a lot of thought. What I want to do is make sure we get the corrupt people out,” she said.

Attorney for Hunter Biden’s benefactor accuses House GOP of misrepresenting testimony - An attorney for Kevin Morris, a close friend of Hunter Biden, accused House Republicans of misrepresenting his testimony following Morris’s Thursday closed-door interview. The pushback from Morris, a Hollywood lawyer who paid off Biden’s overdue taxes, came after his lawyer accused GOP leaders of cherry-picking items from his testimony “not two hours” after he left his meeting with investigators. “When we started today’s interview of my client Mr. Kevin Morris, I specifically pointed out the practice of Republicans in making partial leaks of witness’ statements rather than releasing the actual transcript so the public would know the truth and not your often inaccurate spin and misstatements. I specifically asked that this not to be done with Mr. Morris’ transcript and, if such were done, that the entire transcript be released,” Morris’s attorney Bryan Sullivan wrote in a late Thursday letter to House Oversight and Accountability Chair James Comer (R-Ky.). “Your staff as well as the staff of other committees responded that Mr. Morris would be treated fairly. And, then you did not treat Mr. Morris fairly and engaged in your standard practice of partially and inaccurately leaking a witness’s statements.” Morris’s letter, obtained by The Hill, comes as Democrats have complained the GOP has routinely misrepresented witness testimony throughout their investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings and impeachment inquiry searching for connections to President Biden.

Supreme Court lets stand ex-Hunter Biden associate Devon Archer’s criminal conviction - The Supreme Court let stand former Hunter Biden business associate Devon Archer’s criminal conviction Monday, rejecting for a second time Archer’s bid to avoid prison. In 2018, a federal jury convicted Archer and several others on charges of defrauding a Native American tribe by fraudulently issuing and selling more than $60 million of tribal bonds. In a brief order without explanation, as is typical, the Supreme Court declined to take up Archer’s appeal. The president’s son is not implicated in the case, but Archer has become a key figure in House Republicans’ investigation into Biden’s business dealings. Archer last summer sat down with the House Oversight and Accountability Committee behind closed doors, with each side of the aisle offering conflicting interpretations of his testimony. A transcript released days later showed Archer testified that Biden put his father, then-Vice President Joe Biden, on speakerphone during some meetings with associates, but Archer said he was not aware of President Biden committing any wrongdoing. Archer had urged the justices to revive his attempt at receiving a new trial. He had previously appealed the issue to the justices in 2021, but they declined to hear the case. After Archer was convicted, a federal district judge ordered a new trial after harboring concerns that the evidence may in fact show Archer’s innocence in the criminal scheme. But the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed that decision, saying the judge didn’t have the discretion to reweigh the evidence. Archer had also brought to the justices a second issue not raised in his previous appeal to the Supreme Court: whether he was entitled to contest his sentence recommendation under federal guidelines after an arithmetic error was discovered on appeal. The government contended that Archer had waited too long, forfeiting his right to dispute the calculation.

Hunter Biden’s paintings have sold for a total of $1.5 million - Georges Bergès, an art gallery owner who gave small-dollar donations about 20 times to Donald Trump in 2020, signed an agreement shortly after that year’s election to take on an unusual task: representing Hunter Biden, the son of President-elect Joe Biden, who was pursuing a nascent career as an artist.The agreement produced arrangements that drew concern from ethics experts and has now brought increasing scrutiny from House Republicans. A transcript from a House panel’s closed-door interview with Bergès, released this week, provides the most complete picture to date of Hunter Biden’s artwork, including when his paintings have been sold and for how much.In total, there have been 10 buyers of the art, who have paid a sum of $1.5 million. Under their agreement, the gallerist received 40 percent of the sales while Biden took 60 percent.Three of the buyers have been identified, while the other seven remain anonymous. The largest share of the work — 11 paintings, for a total of $875,000 — went to Kevin Morris, who has become one of Biden’s closest friends while also acting as an attorney and financial benefactor.“I really like Hunter’s art,” Morris said, in a separate transcript released on Tuesday in which he was asked repeatedly by the committee about the roughly $5 million in loans he has made to Hunter. “And, you know, of course, he gets pilloried for it and, you know, all kinds of things said to him. The art is, in my view as an art collector, very good.”Democratic donor Elizabeth Naftali bought two pieces of Biden’s, one for $52,000 and another for $42,000. President Biden appointed her in 2022 to the U.S. Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad.William Jacques, an art collector whom Bergès described as a “really good friend” and part-owner of his gallery, bought four pieces for a total of $122,500.There are seven other buyers, but they have remained anonymous, according to Bergès. He suggested that those purchasers were longtime collectors and customers of his.Some Republicans and ethics experts have questioned whether buying Hunter Biden’s paintings could be a dubious way for individuals to curry favor with the White House, given that works of art are notoriously hard to value and the president’s son is not an established artist. Biden’s circle strongly denies this, saying the paintings have merit and that none of the purchasers want anything from the White House. They also note that most of them have remained anonymous, making it impossible for them to seek favors in exchange for their purchases.

Hunter Biden's memoir is being used as evidence against him in his criminal cases - As they build their two criminal cases against Hunter Biden, prosecutors are leaning hard on a surprising voice: Hunter Biden’s.In several recent court filings, special counsel David Weiss extensively cited the president’s son’s 2021 memoir, “Beautiful Things,” as evidence that he claimed improper tax write-offs and that he was using drugs when he bought a gun.And Weiss’ team pointed to Biden’s openness about his drug use as giving prosecutors extra reason to bring criminal charges — even suggesting his memoir was a game-changer in their decision to prosecute him.“The defendant’s choice to sell a book containing these admissions not only made the government’s case against him stronger, but also increased a potential prosecution’s general deterrence value,” they wrote.Prosecutors amped up their use of the book in a series of filings this month responding to pre-trial motions from Biden’s lawyers.Those motions underscore the reality that Biden’s criminal defense is scarcely contesting the facts as alleged by prosecutors; instead, it relies on purely legal arguments. And the prosecution’s response highlights a unique vulnerability faced by criminal defendants with public platforms.“That’s the challenge for high-profile and political figures: They’re constantly saying things,” said William & Mary Law School professor Jeffrey Bellin. “And the more you say, the more evidence you create for the other side to use.”A spokesperson for Biden’s legal team did not respond to a request for comment. “Beautiful Things” first entered the court proceedings on Dec. 7, when Weiss, who has run the Hunter Biden probe for years, obtained an indictment from a Los Angeles grand jury for a series of tax crimes. The indictment alleged that the president’s son illegally claimed that numerous personal expenses were business-related so he could deduct them from his taxes.“[T]here was no business purpose to staying at luxury hotels in Atlantic City, New York City and Los Angeles,” the indictment said. “Rather, as he described in his memoir, they were used to meet up with his then-girlfriend and for constant partying.”The memoir names specific hotels where the president’s son partied and used illegal drugs, in a portrayal of addiction that Entertainment Weeklycalled “harrowing, raw, and quite generously honest.” The indictment alleged that he later claimed that payments to some of those hotels were business expenses. Biden has pleaded not guilty.Weiss has also charged Biden, in a separate case in Delaware, with unlawfully owning a gun as a drug user. In proceedings in that case, he has cited Biden’s book as evidence that he used illegal drugs regularly during the time he bought the gun.

Naomi Biden says Fox’s Jesse Watters crossed a line - Naomi Biden, the granddaughter of President Biden, decried Fox News host Jesse Watters over a monologue he delivered earlier this week attacking the president for his position on immigration and issues related to the southern border.“I have heard so many lies about my family, it takes a lot to make me upset. This crosses the line,” Naomi Biden wrote late Wednesday night on X, formerly known as Twitter.During his monologue that evening, Watters said Biden is “bad on the border” because “he’s not the best father.”“The man can’t say no to his own son,” Watters said in reference to Hunter Biden, Naomi’s father — and a figure whose foreign business dealings have been the focus of an impeachment push from House Republicans.“He can’t say stop, he can’t have consequences for actions,” he added.Naomi Biden said she doesn’t know how he could “call himself a reporter” after his comments.“I hope he never has a son or daughter who struggles with anything,” she wrote in her post. “You can disagree with his policies without being this ugly.”Watters, an opinion host, was tapped last year to replace pundit Tucker Carlson in Fox’s 8 p.m. hour and is a regular co-host of “The Five,” the network’s top-rated show.

Hunter Biden benefactor defends millions in loans and close friendship Hollywood lawyer and Hunter Biden benefactor Kevin Morris told House GOP investigators that he paid millions of dollars worth of expenses for the president’s son through loans due to a close friendship, with no suggestion or expectation that he would receive any special benefits from the White House or the president.Morris — who has helped Hunter Biden pay for around $5 million of dollars in tax, legal, housing, and public relations expenses — said that while there was not initially a clear agreement for repayment, the terms of an agreement later drawn up by their lawyers doesn’t require repayment until 2025. Morris spoke to the House Oversight, Judiciary, and Ways and Means committees last week in a closed-door interview as part of the Republican investigations into the Biden family’s business dealings and the handling of the tax crimes investigation into Hunter Biden, which Republicans have put under the umbrella of an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The committees released the transcript of that interview Tuesday.Release of the transcript came after public squabbling over its contents. An attorney for Morris last week accused the Republicans on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee ofcherry-picking his testimony soon after it concluded. Oversight Chair Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), in a statement after the interview but before the transcript was released, had seemed to imply that the payments weren’t loans, using the word only in quotes and saying the lawyer had “access” to the White House. Morris said he had been to the White House just three times while Joe Biden was president, and only exchanged pleasantries with the commander in chief. Hunter Biden gave him a tour of the White House in 2021, during which Morris said the president waved and “made a crack about my hair” — “He always makes jokes about my hair.” Morris also attended the 2022 wedding of Naomi Biden, Hunter Biden’s daughter, where he gave the president “a quick hello,” and he attended the Independence Day picnic in 2023.Morris repeatedly said he got no benefit, favor, or consideration from the White House for paying the younger Biden’s taxes and consistently denied any connection with a foreign government. And despite the unorthodox arrangement between the two men, Morris was insistent he expected the loan to be repaid, despite assertions from Republicans they might be forgiven. “I loaned money. I didn’t pay for anything,” Morris said at one point.

Hunter Biden biz associate Rob Walker to testify on being alleged 'vehicle' for Biden family's foreign funds - Hunter Biden’s business associate Rob Walker is set to appear for a closed-door transcribed interview at the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees on Friday morning to discuss his role in being an alleged "vehicle" for the Biden family to receive foreign funds. Walker is set to appear at 10 a.m. on Capitol Hill after being subpoenaed by both House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan in November. His testimony comes as part of the House impeachment inquiry against President Biden. In notifying his attorney of his subpoena, Comer and Jordan explained that Walker set up his limited liability company, Robinson Walker LLC. The chairmen said it was "used as a vehicle to receive foreign funds and send a percentage of the money to Biden family members." One example Comer and Jordan provided is when Joe Biden served as vice president, Robinson Walker LLC received millions of dollars from a company owned by Gabriel Popoviciu, a Romanian who was then the subject of a high-profile corruption prosecution in his home country. "Following the receipt of this money, Robinson Walker sent over one million dollars to Biden family accounts, including those of Hunter Biden and Hallie Biden," Comer and Jordan wrote. But Comer and Jordan flagged that those payments from Romania to Robinson Walker LLC started "within approximately five weeks of then-Vice President Biden meeting with the President of Romania, where, according to the official readout, the issue of corruption was discussed." Comer and Jordan also note that Robinson Walker LLC received a payment of $3 million from State Energy HK Limited, a Chinese company, in February 2017, less than two months after Biden left the Obama administration. Comer and Jordan said that in the three months following that payment, Robinson Walker LLC made "incremental payments totaling over one million dollars to Biden family members and their companies, including Hallie Biden and entities associated with Hunter Biden and James Biden." According to an FBI FD-302 form detailing Walker's 2021 interview with Special Counsel David Weiss' team and obtained by the House Ways and Means Committee, Walker said the "$3 million amount was more of a ‘thank you’ from CEFC." Walker said "they talked of putting together a larger group and discussed acquiring office space." Fox News Digital in December 2020 reported that Hunter Biden, his CEFC associate, Gongwen Dong, and Joe Biden shared office space in Washington, D.C., in September 2017.

Kathy Griffin didn’t realize ‘how serious’ DOJ was about charging her over Trump head photo -- Kathy Griffin said Tuesday she didn’t realize “how serious” the Department of Justice (DOJ) was about her controversial photo of her holding a bloody fake replica of former President Trump’s head. “I actually just got a FOIA back, Freedom of Information Act, recently, expressing how serious they were about trying to charge me with the crime of conspiracy to assassinate the president of the United States,” the comedian said on the “Dinner’s on Me with Jesse Tyler Ferguson” podcast. Griffin said it was her ”own stupidity” in thinking that people “were ready to realize the level of dangerous that” the former president is. She said she took the photo alongside other ones and that she thought they would be on “Instagram for two days, or maybe a gay blog.” A few years ago, in an appearance on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” Griffin said the Secret Service and the assistant U.S. attorney’s office were putting her “under a two-month federal investigation” and were considering charging her “with a crime — this is real — of conspiracy to assassinate the president of the United States.” She also said that she was put on the “no-fly list” and the International Criminal Police Organization list, resulting in her getting stopped at every international airport. “Anderson Cooper said I was disgusting, and I lost about 75 percent of my friends that never came back. And it was hard,” she told Colbert. The former president posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that Griffin should be “ashamed of herself” for the photo after she posed for it. “Kathy Griffin should be ashamed of herself. My children, especially my 11 year old son, Barron, are having a hard time with this. Sick!” Trump said.

Democratic lawmaker says AI deepfakes a bipartisan issue amid Taylor Swift incident -- A Democratic lawmaker said that artificial intelligence (AI) deepfakes are a bipartisan issue in the wake of reports of the recent spread of AI-generated graphic images of pop superstar Taylor Swift on social media.“What’s happened to Taylor Swift is nothing new,” Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) said Thursday in a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “For yrs, women have been targets of deepfakes w/o their consent. And w/ advancements in AI, creating deepfakes is easier & cheaper.”“This is an issue both sides of the aisle & even Swifties should be able to come together to solve,” Clarke continued.Clarke’s New York colleague, Rep. Joseph Morelle (D), unveiled a bill last May to make sharingdeepfake pornography illegal. In a release, his office said that advancement in technology has let deepfakes grow quickly.“The spread of A.I.-generated and altered images can cause irrevocable emotional, financial, and reputational harm — and unfortunately, women are disproportionately impacted,” Morelle said. “As artificial intelligence continues to evolve and permeate our society, it’s critical that we take proactive steps to combat the spread of disinformation and protect individuals from compromising situations online.” Fran Drescher, president of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, praised the New York congressman in the release and said the bill will assist in protecting “personal privacy, safety and autonomy.” “Sexual abuse, whether occurring physically or digitally, should never be excused or permitted as ‘personal expression’, and it should never be tolerated,” Drescher said. “Deepfakes are violations, objectification and exploitation, and must be made illegal and punishable by law. This bill is a powerful step to ensure that this technology is not used to cause harm.”

Is pornography really warping our brains, or is it a moral panic? - In decades gone by, pornography was limited to seedy theaters or stacks of Playboys in your uncle’s closet. Now, an immense array of sexual media is always at our fingertips via the internet. Given how accessible pornography is today, it comes as no surprise that many people are concerned about it. From earnest op-eds to toothless legislation calling pornography a “public health crisis,” to calls for warning labels, it seems that fears about pornography are everywhere. Yet many of these concerns lack grounding in what careful scientific research has taught us about pornography use. As a psychology professor and addiction researcher, I have made a career out of understanding pornography use and its effects, publishing dozens of scientific studies on the topic. Across that work, the most consistent finding is that simple narratives like “porn is bad” or “porn is good” are flawed. Such assertions, and the arguments that underpin them, always miss key information and are almost always wrong. Claims that pornography is inherently addictive are without basis. Some people do become out of control in their use of pornography, but the same can be said of exercise, shopping or even working. Yet, there is no rush to label most of these things as addictive because not every habitual behavior is an addiction. And just because some people develop real problems with pornography, it does not mean that pornography is inherently likely to lead to those types of problems for most users. The scientific and psychiatric communities do not currently consider excessive pornography use to be an addictive disorder. Dozens of studies have demonstrated that most people who view pornography do not feel addicted or out of control. Among people who do say they feel addicted, the reasons for those feelings range from real concerns about how much they view pornography to simple feelings of shame about their sexual behaviors. Similarly, although pornography use can be associated with mental health concerns, most evidence suggests that links between its use and things like depression, anxiety and stress are not causal in nature. Several studies have found no direct links between how often people use pornography and their likelihood of experiencing mental health problems in the future. People experiencing depression and anxiety might use pornography more, but there is no conclusive evidence that the pornography is the cause rather than the effect. A careful read of the science around pornography use also does not support the idea that pornography is abnormally changing people’s brains or stunting neural development. Almost all human hobbies and interests lead to subtle changes in brain structure. Taxi drivers often have larger-than-average brain regions associated with memory. Professional video game players show structural differences compared to non-gamers. It should come as no surprise, then, that people who view pornography frequently may have subtle differences in their brains when compared to people who never view it. The presence of such differences does not necessarily imply problems in brain-function or abnormal development. Rather, it is consistent with the familiar idea that different activities and hobbies change our brains in different ways.

Jeffrey Epstein's Brother Says DOJ Suicide Report Is "Bull*hit" - Demands New Investigation -- Mark Epstein, the brother of elite sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, says his brother was murdered, and the Justice Department (DOJ) report concluding suicide is "bullshit.""I would like a full investigation of his death. If you look at all the evidence, including the autopsy, the photographs of his body, the bullshit DOJ report that is filled with inaccuracies, you would never come up with the conclusion that this was a suicide – but based on what," he told The Guardian.Epstein thinks another prisoner could have gotten into his brother's cell and killed him on August 10, 2019, and he says he's been told that not all the cell doors were locked that night.Most notably, a camera pointing at Epstein's door was not recording the night of his death. According to the DOJ, however, cellmates who might have had a view of Epstein's door said they didn't see anyone go in.“The question is, who had him killed?" Mark Epstein asked.In 2020, '60 Minutes' revealed several details in Epstein's death which raised more questions than they answered - and suggested that the financier did not kill himself. In the interview, a forensic pathologist who observed the four-hour autopsy on behalf of Mark Epstein concluded that the evidence pointed to murder more than suicide - particularly due to unusual fractures present in Epstein's neck that are not consistent with suicide by hanging.

The Sinister Links Between Jeffrey Epstein, CBDCs, & Bitcoin - The purpose of this article is to create awareness of the urgent threat of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), to discuss and describe Jeffrey Epstein’s potential involvement in both funding CBDCs as well as his possible role in changing the underlying purpose of Bitcoin, rendering it unusable as a cash alternative for day-to-day transactions.The article also provides a snippet from my book, The Final Countdown, which goes into detail and further provides practical advice for avoiding CBDCs. Imagine a future where every dollar you spend is tracked - not by a bank, but by the government. This isn’t a distant sci-fi scenario; it’s a real possibility with the advent of Central Bank Digital Currencies, or CBDCs. These are not just new forms of money; they are potentially powerful tools for monitoring and controlling human behavior.The concept is simple yet profound – a digital currency issued by the government that can be programmed with specific rules. For instance, your savings could be frozen if your online activities don’t align with governmental standards, or mandatory spending could be enforced to stimulate the economy. This level of control could extend to everyday choices, dictating the groceries you buy or the vacations you can access, all based on a digital scoring system. My book delves into this topic, painting a picture of a future where CBDCs could lead us into a dystopian society and the first chapter is available here. The urgency of this matter propelled me towards cryptocurrencies and precious metals in 2019, when I completely exited the dollar. It compelled me to author a book, and even run for presidential office to shed light on these critical issues. As a fellow at Brownstone Institute, my current focus is to educate and empower others about the potential risks of CBDCs, with possible implementation before the 2024 elections.In my travels, I’ve encountered significant gaps in public awareness about CBDCs. Over 80% of Americans have never even heard of them, as mainstream media seldom covers the topic. Those who have view CBDCs as a distant future concern, or believe they offer financial convenience and inclusivity, a belief held particularly among younger generations.This article aims to clarify and warn about the current state of CBDC technology in the US, explain the existing political momentum for their adoption, and highlight the intriguing yet concerning connections between Jeffrey Epstein and cryptocurrency developments. Epstein’s link to the MIT Multimedia Lab, which played a pivotal role in significant CBDC trials and influenced changes to Bitcoin’s functionality, suggests a narrative far from the revolutionary currency Bitcoin once was, and potentially melding it into a tool for the elite.

CBDCs are a threat to liberty: GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy - Vivek Ramaswamy, an ally of former President Donald Trump and one-time Republican presidential candidate, labeled the prospective digital dollar — Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) — as a threat to individual liberty.Ramaswamy, who earlier this month suspended his 2024 Presidential campaign and endorsed Trump, shared his apprehensions about CBDC in an interview with Bloomberg.“A central bank digital currency, I believe, is a threat to liberty in this country because it creates a mechanism for the government to be able to wipe out your bank account or wipe out your dollars if you say or do something that the government disapproves of,” Ramaswamy says. See video below. Beyond his stance on CBDCs, Ramaswamy favors a substantial reduction in the scope and size of federal agencies such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Ramaswamy’s advocacy extends to the crypto sphere, as seen in his December criticism of Gary Gensler, SEC Chairman, for what he perceives as ineffective crypto regulations.In contrast to the narrative linking Bitcoin and digital assets to criminal activities, Ramaswamy asserts that Bitcoin provides an alternative to America’s “broken financial architecture.” He argues that embracing crypto aligns with policies that bolster economic freedom in the U.S.Ramaswamy also made unsubstantiated corruption claims againstthe Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The comments caused Roivant, a biotech company he founded, to distance itself from the presidential hopeful.

FTX Is Unloading Crypto to Raise Cash and Pay Back Customers - FTX is unloading cryptoassets and hoarding cash as bankruptcy advisers look for a way to repay customers whose accounts have been frozen since the platform collapsed in 2022. The fraud-tainted crypto firm’s four largest affiliates — including FTX Trading Ltd. and Alameda Research LLC — together nearly doubled the group’s cash pile to $4.4 billion at the end of 2023 from about $2.3 billion in late October, according to Chapter 11 monthly operating reports. The company’s total cash is likely higher including the rest of its affiliates. The company said in a court filing last month that FTX raised $1.8 billion through Dec. 8 by selling off some of the firm’s digital assets. FTX also said it’s conducting Bitcoin derivative trades to hedge exposure to the coin and generate additional yield on its digital holdings — and is exploring options to potentially restart the exchange.An uptick in FTX’s cash stockpile has coincided with the rising of customer accounts. Since FTX unraveled in November 2022, bankruptcy advisers have been tracking down assets and struck deals intended to benefit customers who had smaller accounts on the platform. The company has also brought major lawsuits against former associates of Sam Bankman-Fried and crypto firms like Bybit Fintech Ltd. that withdrew funds from FTX before it filed Chapter 11.Customer claims worth more than $1 million traded at around 73 cents on the dollar as of Friday, up from around 38 cents on the dollar in October, according to investment firm and bankruptcy claims broker Cherokee Acquisition. Actual trading prices depend on the of a specific claim and other factors, Cherokee Acquisition said.Even so, FTX has said it doesn’t expect customers will be fully repaid — and that customers of FTX.com will bear a greater percentage of the losses. Dozens of FTX customers are challenging a company proposal that would peg the of their digital assets at the time the company filed bankruptcy, meaning they’d miss-out on a yearlong Bitcoin rally and rebound for other tokens.The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.

Colorado pastor Eli Regalado accused of cryptocurrency fraud | CNN — Denver pastor Eli Regalado had an exciting message for his congregation. After months of prayers and cues from God, he was going to start selling cryptocurrency, he announced in a YouTube video last April. The Signature and Silvergate banks had collapsed weeks earlier, signaling the need to look into other investment options beyond financial institutions, he said. With divine wisdom, he said, he was “setting the rails for God’s wealth transfer.”Shortly a fterward, Regalado and his wife, Kaitlyn Regalado, launched a cryptocurrency, INDXcoin, and began selling it to members of his Victorious Grace Church and other Christian communities in the Denver area. They sold it through the Kingdom Wealth Exchange, an online cryptocurrency marketplace he created, controlled and operated.The Regalados raised more than $3.2 million from over 300 investors, Tung Chang, Securities Commissioner for Colorado, said in a civil complaint. The couple’s sales pitches were filled with “prayer and quotes from the Bible, encouraging investors to have faith that their investment … would lead to ‘abundance’ and ‘blessings,’” the complaint said. But Colorado state regulators say that INDXcoin was “essentially worthless.” Instead of helping investors acquire wealth, the Regalados used around $1.3 million of the investment funds to bankroll lavish expenditures, including a Range Rover, jewelry, cosmetic dentistry and extravagant vacations, the complaint said. The money also paid for renovations to the Regalados’ Denver home, the complaint said. In a stunning video statement posted online Friday — several days after the civil charges were filed — Eli Regalado did not dispute that he and his wife profited from the crypto venture. “The charges are that Kaitlyn and I pocketed 1.3 million dollars, and I just want to come out and say that those charges are true,” he said, adding, “A few hundred thousand dollars went to a home remodel that the Lord told us to do.”

Coinbase Upgraded by Oppenheimer as Crypto Exchange Is 'Stronger Than Many People Realize' - Shares of Coinbase (COIN) rose as much as 6% on Friday after investment bank Oppenheimer raised the rating of the stock to “outperform” from “perform” with a price target of $160 per share, arguing that the company is strong and its management team is tough. "The stock was under extreme scrutiny during crypto winter. While many peers went under, COIN is still standing and fighting for its businesses and the industry. We believe the company is stronger than many people realize, and the management team is tougher than most investors think," analyst Owen Lau wrote in a note.The upgrade is based on multiple factors, including a “good chance” that Coinbase will win its lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or that the court will dismiss the case.Another driving force is the recent approval of ten spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for which Coinbase serves as a custodian for several issuers. This will not only bring the company revenue by being a key part of the infrastructure but will benefit from the new wave of investors, increasing adoption and higher trading volume, Lau said.The upgrade comes after JPMorgan downgraded the stock earlier this week to an underweight rating, citing a disappointing bitcoin ETF catalyst.With the current low fees for trading the ETFs – some at 0% for the first six months or until the fund reaches a certain amount of assets – investors trading on crypto exchanges could be swayed to put their money in the ETFs instead of trading on platforms such as Coinbase, but Lau doesn’t see that happening. Instead, he said that the vast majority of retail traders will likely keep their money on the exchange as it allows them to engage in other blockchain use cases.

FTC opens inquiry into Big Tech's partnerships with leading AI startups -U.S. antitrust enforcers are opening an inquiry into the relationships between leading artificial intelligence startups such as ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and the tech giants that have invested billions of dollars into them.The action targets Amazon, Google and Microsoft and their sway over the generative AI boom that’s fueled demand for chatbots such as ChatGPT, and other AI tools that can produce novel imagery and sound.“We’re scrutinizing whether these ties enable dominant firms to exert undue influence or gain privileged access in ways that could undermine fair competition,” said Lina Khan, chair of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, in opening remarks at a Thursday AI forum.Khan said the market inquiry would review “the investments and partnerships being formed between AI developers and major cloud service providers.”The FTC said Thursday it issued “compulsory orders” to five companies -- cloud providers Amazon, Google and Microsoft, and AI startups Anthropic and OpenAI -- requiring them to provide information about their agreements and the decision-making around them.Microsoft’s years-long relationship with OpenAI is the best known. Google and Amazon have more recently made multibillion-dollar deals with Anthropic, another San Francisco-based AI startup formed by former leaders at OpenAI.Google welcomed the FTC inquiry in a statement Thursday that also took a not-so-veiled dig at Microsoft’s OpenAI relationship and its history of inviting antitrust scrutiny over its business practices.“We hope the FTC’s study will shine a bright light on companies that don’t offer the openness of Google Cloud or have a long history of locking-in customers – and who are bringing that same approach to AI services,” Google’s statement said.

SEC Idiots Deliberately Turned Off Multi-Factor Authentication Ahead Of Most Humiliating Hack In Agency's History -While we already knew the reason behind the most humiliating hack in SEC history - when one day before Gary Gensler was forced to capitulate and approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETF (betraying his Sith master, Pocahontas under intense pressure from Larry Fink), the regulator's X account was hacked and reported what would be news one day later - moments ago the SEC confirmed that i) an unnamed person changed the password for the agency’s account after gaining control of an agency employee’s phone number via a simple "SIM Swap" to make the false post on Jan. 9, and more importantly ii) the reason why the hack was even possible in the first place is that the multifactor authentication of its X account was disabled last July and wasn’t re-enabled until after the incident, to wit:"While multi-factor authentication (MFA) had previously been enabled on the @SECGov X account, it was disabled by X Support, at the staff’s request, in July 2023 due to issues accessing the account. Once access was reestablished, MFA remained disabled until staff reenabled it after the account was compromised on January 9. MFA currently is enabled for all SEC social media accounts that offer it."In other words, the idiots at the SEC voluntarily made it easier for any outside hackers to gain access to their account, by deliberately turning off their 2 factor authentication, which as Bloomberg's James Seyffart notes, is far worse than never having it turned on in the first place!

SEC account hack result of ‘SIM swap’ attack, agency says - The hack of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) account on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, earlier this month was the result of a “SIM swap” attack, an agency spokesperson said Tuesday. An “unauthorized party” used SIM swapping to obtain control of the phone number associated with the SEC’s X account and reset the password, the spokesperson said. SIM swapping allows scammers to receive voice and SMS communications associated with a phone number by transferring the number to an unauthorized device. The SEC spokesperson said access to the phone number occurred via the agency’s telecom carrier, noting there is no evidence the unauthorized party “gained access to SEC systems, data, devices, or other social media accounts.” “Among other things, law enforcement is currently investigating how the unauthorized party got the carrier to change the SIM for the account and how the party knew which phone number was associated with the account,” the spokesperson added. Multifactor authentication for the SEC’s account had also been disabled at the request of the agency’s staff last July “due to issues accessing the account” and remained disabled until the hack on Jan. 9, the spokesperson said. “MFA currently is enabled for all SEC social media accounts that offer it,” they added. The SEC revealed its X account had been hacked earlier this month, after it appeared to approve several highly anticipated bitcoin investment funds. While the agency quickly took down the fake announcement and replaced it with a disavowal, the breach prompted criticism and calls for investigation from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, particularly after X revealed the SEC’s account did not have two-factor authentication enabled.

Banks say current capital proposals would burden securitization market - In recently submitted comment letters, top U.S. bank representatives and a coalition of congressmen adamantly opposed the banking regulators' proposal reflecting the Basel III capital recommendations, identifying securitizations as an area that will be particularly impacted adversely. The bipartisan coalition's letter called asset securitization "crucial to our economy, helping to ensure businesses and consumers have access to affordable financing." It says that regulators are proposing the "most cautious approach" recommended by the Basel Committee, doubling the capital surcharge for some securitization exposures to a level above what the banking agencies adopted after the Dodd-Frank Act. Noting the added weight of the U.S. stress testing process, the Congressmen expressed their concern that "the new capital requirements may lead in some cases to banks having to maintain more capital [against the securitization transaction] than the underlying exposure itself." Banking regulators issued the proposed rules July 27, 2023, with a deadline of November 30 to submit comments. That timeline was extended to January 16. In a joint comment letter, the American Bankers Association and Bank Policy Institute expressed similar concerns. They noted the proposal contains no standard by which to determine what an appropriate risk weight should be for credit and operational risk, making it impossible to determine [whether] the costs of higher capital outweigh the benefits. More specifically, JPMorgan Chase argues that the proposals could use a combination of structural revisions and adjustments to risk weighted-assets (RWA) before finalization. In its 18-page comment, the bank argues that the surcharge placed on Globally Systematic Important Bank should be adjusted for economic growth and the calibration of operational risk for risk-weighted assets, among other proposed revisions. At the start of its 76-page comment letter, the Structured Financial Association (SFA) stated in bold letters that the proposed rule should not be adopted, and that the SFA opposes it. It argued that U.S. regulators have chosen a much more stringent application of the Basel III recommendations than standards in the EU, U.K, Canada and elsewhere, putting U.S. banks "at a significant disadvantage compared to their international peers." A key sticking point is the p-factor, which scales up the risk weightings applied to different types of loans in a securitization, and the proposal increases it to 1.0 from 0.5 under current rules. Scott Frame, chief economist and head of policy at the SFA, said that a pool of loans held by a bank in unsecuritized form and subject to an 8% capital charge would see that charge increase to 12% under the current 0.5 p-factor if the bank instead held every tranche of a securitization backed by the same pool of loans. "Under the endgame proposal, with p-factor equal to 1.0, the charge would be 16%," Frame said, adding that additional capital required by CCAR stress tests could require banks to maintain more capital against the underlying securitization transaction than the underlying exposure itself. "Research provided by member firms demonstrated that the additive nature of these requirements can result in changes exceeding the amount for many subordinated exposures," he said.

Banks see mixed signals, reporting challenges in GSIB surcharge proposal Amid Washington's broader ideological skirmish about the role and effectiveness of bank capital, a narrower, more technical skirmish is playing out over a regulatory requirement aimed at the eight largest, most complex banks in the country. Proposed alongside the risk weighting reforms known as the Basel III endgame this summer, the Federal Reserve's suggested updates to the global systemically important bank, or GSIB, surcharge aims to align banks' capital requirements more closely with their systemic profile. The GSIB surcharge is an additional capital charge applied to the eight largest and/or most systemically important banks in the country — Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street and Wells Fargo — on top of standard capital requirements. Proponents of the proposed framework say it would be more adaptive to changing risk exposures within banks and prevent so-called "window dressing" — a practice in which banks clean up their balance sheets before year-end reporting deadlines — by requiring banks to disclose exposures based on daily averages, rather than a single moment in time. For the banks in the GSIB category, the shift would bring with it more operational expenses. But it would also carry the benefit of narrowing scoring bands for determining systemic risk, making the charge each bank faces more correlated to their riskiness and thus eliminating the "cliff effect" — that is, big jumps in capital costs that come with crossing from one band to the next. "A reasonable argument can be made that, if you're just looking at this change in isolation, that maybe it's not that bad. But, you can never really look at these things in isolation," said Chen Xu, a bank regulatory lawyer with Debevoise & Plimpton. "When you look at everything in the aggregate, it gets a little bit concerning." Banks and their allies have expressed concern about the calibration of the surcharge, particularly when paired with other regulatory changes under consideration, namely the Basel III proposal for measuring risk-weighted assets. Xu said some exposures could be counted two or three times between the two frameworks, leading to a greater overall capital increase than regulators currently anticipate. Yet, the greatest concerns about the surcharge changes are being raised by banks that would not actually face the requirement, but still have to complete the corresponding disclosure form, known as FR Y-15, which would also be amended by the proposal. U.S. operations of overseas banks say the framework's new definition for cross-jurisdictional assets amounts to "targeting," as it would cause several institutions to be moved into more stringent regulator categories.

OCC says Blue Ridge in 'troubled condition' over BaaS -- Blue Ridge Bank has been hit with its second regulatory action in less than 18 months, this time taking heat for failing to correct previously reported problems related to its fintech partnerships.The Martinsville, Virginia, bank has been deemed to be in "troubled condition" by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which entered the consent order on Wednesday. Billy Beale, CEO of the $3.3 billion-asset bank, said in a written statement to American Banker that the consent order is based on the OCC's findings from a June exam, and is "not reflective of the significant progress that has been made since June."The regulatory action marks another blow to the banking-as-a-service industry, which has become subject to mounting regulator scrutiny over the last year and a half. On Friday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation also published two other consent orders related to fintech partnerships. The orders, which took effect in mid-December, charged First & Peoples Bank and Trust Company in Russel, Kentucky, and Choice Financial Group in Fargo, North Dakota, with violating parts of the Bank Secrecy Act. Jonah Crane, a partner at Klaros Group, said he expects that every bank with a large BaaS program will see some type of regulatory action over the next year. He said many banks originally jumped into the business after seeing a chance to increase deposits and fee revenue through fintech partners. However, maintaining a compliant partner bank is "much more costly and intensive to run" than institutions have historically expected, Crane said, requiring extensive resources, staffing and technology investments."My hypothesis has been, really since [the failure of Silicon Valley Bank], that regulators would be a lot quicker to pull the trigger on public enforcement actions," Crane said. "When they identify issues, and something bad happens, they don't want to have to answer the question, 'Why didn't you do anything about it?'"The latest order against Blue Ridge, which supersedes its previous agreement with the OCC from August 2022, requires the bank to ramp up its anti-money-laundering controls, capital position and third-party management, all of which allegedly contributed to unsafe or unsound practices. The OCC claims that the bank didn't establish and maintain a sufficient BSA/AML compliance program, as it was directed in the previous agreement. The regulator also imposed higher capital requirements for the bank in the fall.In November, Blue Ridge said in an investor presentation that it had begun offboarding dozens of fintech partners. Beale also told American Banker in an October interview that the bank had jumped into BaaS "up to its clavicles." Blue Ridge also secured a $150 million capital infusion through a private placement.

BankThink: A new era of bank runs demands a new regulatory approach (Part 1) | American Banker - In the spring of last year, three U.S. banks failed following unprecedented deposit runs. A too-common narrative has grown up that the deposit runs occurred, and these banks failed, because: (1) the banks were badly run; (2) the banks had bad business models; and/or (3) the bank supervisors failed in their jobs. To my mind, all three of these explanations miss the central points of the problem. The failures were caused by two things: an unprecedented misuse of modern information and payments technology and a regulatory system that has increasingly moved away from a focus on the fundamentals of finance to emphasize other areas of bank activity.Indeed, some have said modern bank regulation attempts to boil the ocean or, in effect, manage the bank soup to nuts. If we do not change our focus, in how we address modern information and payments technology on the one hand and our bank regulatory framework on the other, we will face even more destructive runs. And we may well lose a disproportionate part of our community and regional bank system to the detriment of smaller communities and small businesses.In the first installment of this two-part series, I will dissect the anatomy of these events, unpacking the precise interplay of technological manipulation and regulatory blind spots that fueled the flames. In the second, I will incorporate learnings from the 2023 difficulties so that we can best avoid a repeat, outlining concrete steps for a more dynamic and adaptable regulatory framework.Prior to the troubles that occurred last spring, all three of the banks that failed enjoyed strong reputations among bank analysts, the business community and many regulators. Each served targeted areas of the American economy in unique ways and with specialized skills. All three were pioneers in their respective fields, recognizing emerging markets that benefited from unique banking service approaches. And all three demonstrated that hands-on, personalized service coupled with specialized expertise is often best delivered by smaller financial institutions. Indeed, the entities that failed in the spring of 2023 had been well rated by regulators during the months, weeks and even days prior to their failures.In reality, these three institutions, along with many other reputable banks, were caught up in a kind of internet wildfire, unprecedented in its speed and destructive nature. The internet allowed, if not fomented, rumors, half-truths and some distorted facts to spread almost instantaneously and create a panic. This panic, with the use of the internet and other modern banking techniques, including a much-faster payments system, allowed frantic deposit holders to withdraw funds in unprecedented amounts and at unprecedented speed. Importantly too, individuals with their own vested interests can leverage the internet to create or exaggerate rumors of failure to manipulate stock prices. To add heat to any modern conflagration, self-styled pundits spread their "wisdom" on the internet to gain attention. Moreover, competitors and malcontents often take advantage of online platforms to create chaos and unrest. The contours of the 21st century internet-induced panic have brought such a significant change in circumstances that it warrants the lion's share of attention and regulatory change.

BankThink: A new era of bank runs demands a new regulatory approach (Part 2) | American Banker -Yesterday, I attempted to unravel the intricate web of factors behind last spring's disastrous bank failures. We saw how technological manipulation exploited regulatory gaps, sparking panic and triggering collapse. But knowledge of the facts and circumstances, however accurate, is only a partial antidote to future problems. Today, we move beyond the post-mortem and into proactive defense, taking up the tools to build a financial future more resilient against tomorrow's tremors.Many have long argued that increasing deposit insurance limits would stem panicked deposit runs. Once raised, the limits would be in constant effect, unencumbered by the obstacles or delays required by consultations or meetings. Furthermore, deposit insurance coverage and payoffs following a crisis have not, to this point, cost the government money or added to the deficit. Deposit insurance is funded by the banks themselves and hasn't required taxpayer funds in its nearly 100-year history. However, raising deposit insurance limits currently lacks political traction. Even the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman's thoughtful, tailored approach to increasing limits was not greeted with enthusiasm by Congress.Instead of focusing on FDIC limit increases now, it makes sense to focus — at least as a Band-Aid — on establishing a more fluid, flexible, effective and destigmatized Federal Reserve discount window system. This approach can be accomplished through regulatory (as opposed to legislative) action, and thus allows for meaningful protection now. If not quite as effective as increasing deposit insurance, it could mark a big step forward in stabilizing the system. It is worth emphasizing that more flexible approaches to the fluid utilization of the window taken in the past should not be rolled back, nor should the window get smaller for banks once they are in trouble. On the contrary, the bias should be to open the window wider.Meanwhile, the recent fixation on the notion that bank runs and other banking system problems are solved by "too big to fail" institutions could well prove problematic. It is worth remembering that virtually all of these institutions survived the crisis of 2007 because of their reliance on the Troubled Asset Relief Program, not because the institutions themselves were less risky. It is worth noting that the collapse of numerous smaller banks and community development financial institutions in the Great Recession was not because they were more risky, but because they were deemed less essential, less systemic and accordingly in many cases, did not get even a penny from TARP. This uneven approach to which institutions did and did not get TARP, at least initially, and the failures that came from it, created significant gaps in our financial landscape and our ability to support lower-income and smaller segments of the economy. It is worth also noting that it was the community banks, not our largest banks, that disproportionately helped small business when the Paycheck Protection Program was their one lifeline during the COVID crisis.January 24 Additionally, banks and regulators should place a greater emphasis on tail risk as a major part of their own enterprise risk systems. Oddly, this is too often overlooked by regulators — except in the formalistic one-size-fits-all stress test system that has its benefits, but that can be too uniform to cover all emerging risks. To wit, stress tests did not foresee the problems that emerged in the spring of 2023. It is worth emphasizing that, in a renewed focus on tail risk, any concern should be analyzed particularly closely with regard to new products and services.Congress also needs to enact legislation to require that nonbanks be treated like banks from a supervisory perspective. Our financial system maintains two separate regulatory systems for two groups of entities providing essentially the same products and services — one is highly regulated, and the other is barely regulated at all. This is highly destabilizing. It is particularly unacceptable when the entities are roughly of equivalent size because the dichotomy spurs banks to go further out on the risk curve. That, then, has set up the entire financial system for what may be a serious nonbank financial institution failure, with knock-on effects. In the short run, it is draining needed talent out of the banking system.

BankThink: If bank capital has to be higher, let's regulate nonbanks | American Banker -I'd like to take you back to a simpler time — to 2016. Back then, the Republican and Democratic primaries were both contested, and candidates were throwing policy ideas out there to see what gained traction. One of those, at least on the Democratic side, was the question of whether and how to break up the country's largest banks. Since those banks had been a very big part of a cascading failure that had very recently pushed the country into the worst financial crisis in generations, there was some political urgency to the question of whether those institutions ought to continue to exist in their present form.Into that policy scuffle stepped Neel Kashkari, the erstwhile Republican candidate for Governor of California who had recently been named President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. In a speech that February at the Brookings Institution, Kashkari plowed head-on into the debate, declaring that Dodd-Frank had not solved the problem of Too Big To Fail, and that policymakers should instead embrace a more radical approach that would either compel banks to break themselves up into less systemically risky pieces or become "public utilities" stuffed with, as he put it, "so much capital that they virtually can't fail."That vision was ultimately consummated several months later in something called theMinneapolis Plan, which, among other things, would raise risk-weighted capital minimums for banks with more than $250 billion to 23.5% — up from the then-minimum of 13% — and require the Treasury Secretary to certify that those banks are not Too Big To Fail, raising capital beyond that minimum until they can be so certified, up to 38% risk weighted capital.Fast forward to today, a time when the question of how high bank capital ought to be is still very much alive, albeit in a slightly different form. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a bank capital proposal, known as Basel III endgame, which ostensibly adjusts risk weighting of a bank's assets and methodologies of ascertaining capital, but in effect would raise capital on the largest banks by between 16%and 30%, depending on who you ask. Comparing the Minneapolis Plan to Basel III endgame is like comparing apples to tubas, not least because between 2016 and last year the Fed's process for determining risk-weighted capital minimums has evolved to rely on the stress capital buffer as a key ingredient, meaning that the minimum is different from bank to bank based on how well its portfolio performed in the prior cycle's stress test. But even the most expansive estimates of the capital impact of Basel III endgame wouldn't come close to the lowest risk-weighted requirements under the Minneapolis Plan. But there's another difference between the Minneapolis Plan and Basel III endgame, and that is that the Minneapolis Plan included a separate prong that would impose a tax on nonbank financial companies — including hedge funds, mutual funds and nonbank intermediaries — of between 1.2% and 2.2%, depending on systemic risk.

The Battle Over Capital at the Mega Banks Must Expand to Breaking Them Up - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: --Last Thursday, 12 Democrats in the U.S. Senate sent a deeply insightful letter on a subject most Americans have never discussed around their kitchen table: adequate capital levels at the Wall Street mega banks that came close to bringing down the U.S. financial system in 2008. Before that financial crisis was over – the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s – millions of hardworking Americans had lost their jobs and millions more had their homes taken in foreclosure. If the U.S. is going to avoid a replay of that crisis, Americans are going to have to start having these critical conversations about the structure of Wall Street mega banks around the kitchen table. Americans are going to have to start engaging in the battle to shape the future of American democracy and more equitable wealth distribution, which requires dramatic reform of the mega banks on Wall Street. The letter from Senate Democrats, including Senator Sherrod Brown, the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, includes these two key passages:“Capital is the linchpin of safety and soundness in our banking system. When a bank uses more capital to fund its investments and activities instead of debt, it is investors and shareholders, not workers and taxpayers, that take a hit if the bank faces challenges. Strong capital is the shock absorber on banks’ balance sheets during economic downturns. It allows banks to keep making loans exactly when businesses and households might need an economic lifeline the most…“The small group of banks that the proposed rule covers are among the largest and most complex financial institutions in the world. Some are behemoths with trillions of dollars in assets. The institutions that would be affected the most focus on sales and trading activity that primarily serve Wall Street and other large institutions. Especially for these large and complex institutions, capital is what keeps risky bets at banks from transforming into layoffs, depleted savings, and fewer wealth-building opportunities for workers, small businesses, and communities. The proposal, when implemented, will increase capital requirements by 19% for the U.S. Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs), which consist of only eight banks. For nearly all other large banks with over $100 billion in assets, capital requirements will increase by 6%. In aggregate, the proposal will increase capital requirements by 16% for all banks with more than $100 billion in assets, thereby impacting fewer than 50 banks that operate in the U.S.” According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, as of September 30, 2023 there were 4,614 federally-insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the U.S. The proposed higher capital levels would impact less than 50 banks or less than one percent of the total federally-insured financial institutions in the U.S. But the lobbying, advertising and legal battle that these banking behemoths have waged today is reminiscent of the strong-arm tactics they used to defeat meaningful reform after they collapsed the U.S. financial system in 2008.Think about these words:“…the choice that America faces is stark: whether Washington will accede to the vested interests of an unbridled financial sector that runs up profits in good years and dumps its losses on taxpayers in lean years, or reform through stringent regulation the banking system as first and foremost an engine of economic growth. To restore health and balance to our economy, Johnson and Kwak make a radical yet feasible and focused proposal: reconfigure the megabanks to be ‘small enough to fail.’ ” The above words were written as promotional text for a book released just shy of 14 years ago: 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown by Simon Johnson and James Kwak. Now think about this: Americans have made no headway on this critical subject over the span of 14 years. In fact, Americans have lost ground. As further evidence of just how much ground Americans have lost in this battle over the past 14 years, after the Fed had secretly pumped trillions of dollars into these same institutions to prop them up beginning on September 17, 2019 – in what is now called the repo loan crisis – there was a Kremlin-esque mainstream media news blackout when it came to naming the banks and the amounts they borrowed. (See There’s a News Blackout on the Fed’s Naming of the Banks that Got Its Emergency Repo Loans; Some Journalists Appear to Be Under Gag Orders.) The Fed wants to pretend that it has a bag of magic beans called stress tests that will catch any major problems at the mega banks before they implode the U.S. financial system as they did in 2008. But as far back as a decade ago, even the comedy writers at Saturday Night Live understood the farce of the stress tests. For a more serious analysis of the Fed’s stress tests, see: Wall Street Watchdog Assails Fed’s Stress Tests of Mega Banks as “Toothless” – Provides a Wakeup Call to Biden Administration; and Bombshell Report: Fed Is Aware that Big Banks Are Rigging their Stress Tests and Letting Them Get Away with It; and Three Federal Studies Show Fed’s Stress Tests of Big Banks Are Just a Placebo.

CFPB's overdraft proposal exempts the small banks that need it most -A plan by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to slash overdraft fees comes with a major omission: Small banks, which are more reliant on overdraft revenue as a profit center than larger banks. Several dozen small institutions are among the worst offenders in targeting consumers for overdraft charges, experts say. The CFPB's proposal released last week would allow large financial institutions with more than $10 billion in assets to charge a breakeven fee or a maximum overdraft fee of between $3 to $14, under a rubric to be set by the bureau. If banks charge a higher amount than their costs, the CFPB will consider an overdraft charge to be a line of credit subject to the Truth in Lending Act, which requires disclosures of annual interest rates. Given small banks' outsized role in overdraft, some experts are questioning the CFPB's rationale, especially considering research that shows small banks' overeliance on overdraft revenue. "Exempting banks and credit unions that have under $10 billion in assets is a mistake because the bureau's rule doesn't touch some of the biggest offenders," said Aaron Klein, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former deputy assistant secretary for economic policy in the Treasury Department. "If overdraft is a profit center, then it's an extension of credit — and credit is regulated."Some small banks continue to reorder transactions from high to low amounts, which can maximize fees, said Klein, citing his own research that found small banks and credit unions "are some of the biggest overdraft predators." The 211-page proposed rule would apply only to 175 large banks and credit unions. The CFPB also said it plans "to monitor the market's response" and determine whether "to alter the regulatory framework," for smaller institutions with less than $10 billion in assets."I see no way for small banks not to be affected by this," said Kristen Larson, an attorney at Ballard Spahr. "They're regulating the larger banks, but the smaller ones lose leverage because of the regulation." The CFPB may have exempted small banks in an effort to avoid convening a small business review panel, which is required for rules impacting small businesses, but would have delayed the proposal's release. Community banks and credit unions also could exert their political muscle in opposing a final rule if they were not exempted.

CFPB proposes 'proactive' rule to halt NSF fees on real-time payments -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it is taking "proactive steps" to stop banks, credit unions and peer-to-peer payment companies from charging fees when certain transactions are immediately declined due to insufficient funds.On Wednesday, the CFPB proposed a rule that would consider nonsufficient funds fees to be unlawful — and considered an "abusive practice" under the Consumer Financial Protection Act — if the fee is charged on a debit, ATM or peer-to-peer payment that is declined immediately.The CFPB acknowledged in its proposal that financial institutions rarely charge NSF fees for ATM or debit transactions that get declined at what the bureau called "the swipe, tap, or click." But as real-time payments become ubiquitous, the CFPB said it "believes that [it] is important to proactively set regulations to protect consumers from abusive practices." The CFPB provided an example of a $100 grocery purchase with a debit card that gets declined at the point of sale because the account only has $90. A financial institution currently does not assess an NSF fee on such a transaction because it was not processed through the Automated Clearing House system that clears electronic credit and debit transfers, the CFPB said. NSF fees — also known as returned-item fees, because they typically were charged for returned or bounced checks — are largely a thing of the past among the top 20 banks. But the CFPB said that it recently found through its market monitoring that some large banks with more than $10 billion in assets are still charging NSF fees with a median fee of $32. The proposed rule is part of the CFPB's effort to crackdown on what the agency calls "junk fees," that consumers have no control over but that the agency claims produce billions in income for financial institutions. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release accompanying the proposal that he is trying to prevent "new junk fees from emerging in the future." The CFPB also claimed in the press release that "banks have previously increased fees when technology provided an opportunity."

Letter to the editor: Banning medical debt from credit reports will benefit everyone | American Banker -- Contrary to claims in the recent BankThink article by Shaun Ertischek ("Hiding consumers' medical debt from lenders is a terrible idea," Jan. 9, 2024) the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is not overstepping its authority by banning medical debt from credit reports. The CFPB has stepped up to do what it can — using its powerful rule-writing pen to ban medical debt from credit reports in furtherance of the Fair Credit Reporting Act's objective to eliminate medical information from consideration in credit underwriting.Reforming the broken system of reporting medical debt would help consumers and responsible lenders, alike. America's health care system saddles consumers with billions of dollars in medical debt — debt that mars the credit reports of millions of consumers. Medical debt shuts consumers out of affordable car loans, credit cards and mortgages, or costs them thousands more.Worse yet, it can deny access to jobs (nearly 50% of employers use credit reports for all or some jobs) or even a roof over their heads (90% of landlords use credit reports). Debt collectors, such as that op-ed's author, are the industry group that stands to lose the most with a ban on medical debts on credit reports. It's not health care providers; in fact, the American Hospital Association submitted a comment letter to the CFPB that its patient billing guidelines "encourag[e] hospitals to forego adverse credit reporting of medical debt" and that the "guidelines, therefore, largely align with the CFPB's proposals …"Banks and lenders are not the ones to lose from a ban on medical debts on credit reports. In fact, the financial services industry could benefit from a ban as more consumers become eligible for mainstream credit. Removing medical debts from credit reports benefits consumers tremendously. The CFPB's research found that consumers experience a 25-point increase in their credit score after the last medical debt is removed from their credit report, and that they have access to thousands more in available credit afterwards.Banning medical debts from credit reports will allow consumers to access credit more affordably, qualify for more employment opportunities, and obtain housing in high opportunity areas. The rule is a win-win for consumers and responsible lenders.

U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 17 Percent in 2023; 42% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels - From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 16.8 Percent - Total bankruptcy filings rose 16.8 percent, with significant increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2023. This accelerates a continuing rebound in filings after more than a decade of sharply dropping totals. According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 452,990 in the year ending December 2023, compared with 387,721 cases in the previous year. Business filings rose 40.4 percent, from 13,481 to 18,926, in the year ending Dec. 31, 2023. Non-business bankruptcy filings rose 16 percent to 434,064, compared with 374,240 in December 2022. Bankruptcy totals for the previous 12 months are reported four times annually. This is the fourth straight quarter that total bankruptcy filings have risen, following a decade-plus decline. Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 million. This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy AbusePrevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". 2023 was the 3rd lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 42% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

As Delinquencies Spike, Banks Are "Granting Fewer Credit Lines", Fed Analysts Warn - With credit card delinquency rates at their highest levels in more than a decade, getting approved for a new line of credit is getting harder, Fed analysts warned. According to a new report from the Philadelphia Fed, 3.19% of credit card balances were at least 30 days past due by the end of the third quarter of 2023. That’s up from 2.76% in the second quarter and the highest level since 2012. Just as concerning, the percentage of balances that were at least 60 days and 90 days past due shot up to the highest levels since the beginning of Covid. “All stages of delinquency rates now exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time,” Fed economist Gene Huang and senior analyst Anna Veksler wrote in the report. In even more bad news, the Fed researchers found that only 33.18% of accounts paid their balance in full—suggesting that 1 in 3 Americans are carrying a balance every month. That’s the highest level since 2020. Since 2020, “the share of accounts making the full payment has moderated, driven by strong consumer spending and dwindling government support,” the researchers said. “Greater consumer fragility,” as the Fed described it, makes banks think twice before granting new lines of credit. According to the researchers, banks’ rejection rate today is the highest in the past year. While experts generally agree that rising delinquency rates are a source of concern, they’re split on how bad the problem is—and what it says about consumer finances. On the one hand, Smead Capital Management CEO Cole Smead said, “We’re coming off really low delinquencies” in 2022, “so you’re going to see a natural uptick.” CFRA bank analyst Alexander Yokum adds that rising delinquencies aren’t a big deal “with unemployment under 4%,” suggesting that Americans will continue making payments so long as they’re employed. But according to Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove, banks are getting red flags from retailers, who’ve warned for months that customers are having trouble paying their debt. Credit card losses are “the big issue that certain banks have to worry about,” he told Yahoo Finance. Currently, credit card issuer Capital One and digital bank Ally Financial face some of the biggest risks. “I think we’re going to see a wave of loan losses for both these companies,” Bove said. The good news is that banks seem to be prepared for a delinquency spike and have set aside cash to cover bad loans, according to Stephen Biggar, an analyst at Argus Research, a New York-based market research firm. Banks are “thinking that the higher interest rate environment, what the Fed was doing to take the heat off of such high inflation, was going to result in a downturn and an uptick in unemployment,” he said. So they've increased the amount of dry powder they have. Credit card delinquencies don’t happen in a vacuum, but rather depend on the overall debt households carry, according to Wells Fargo economist Seery Grein. “Households who have other debt, so student or auto loans, for instance, are actually seeing delinquencies rise fastest in terms of their credit card purchases,” she said, adding that delinquencies tend to jump when interest rates increase. Creditnews has recently reported on a sharp rise in auto delinquencies, especially among subprime borrowers. In September, the percentage of subprime borrowers who were at least 60 days behind on their car payments increased to 6.11%—the highest since at least 1994. Student debt is another mounting issue after the government resumed mandatory payments in October. So far, millions of borrowers have refused to pay.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.23% in December" From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.23% in DecemberThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.26% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.23% as of December 31, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 115,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020. In December 2023, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance declined 1 basis point to 0.15%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 8 basis points to 0.39%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 3 basis points to 0.27%. “Forbearance as a loss mitigation option is diminishing,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “While forbearance is a powerful tool for delinquency surges resulting from natural disasters or major disruptions such as a pandemic, today’s borrowers are not experiencing widespread financial distress. The overall performance of servicing portfolios – particularly government loans – declined in December. Factors such as seasonality, a changing labor market, resumption of student loan payments, and the rise in balances on other forms of consumer debt are likely at play.” ... By reason, 61.2% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability; while 26.8% of borrowers are in forbearance because of COVID-19. Another 12.0% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster. At the end of December, there were about 115,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in December - From ICE (formerly Black Knight): ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: December Delinquencies Rise on Calendar Effects; Foreclosures Approach Two-year Lows

• In large part due to December ending on a Sunday, delaying the processing of payments made on the last day of the month, the national delinquency rate hit 3.57%, up 19 bps from November
• Though the rise (+5.6%) was larger than an average December (+1.4%), it was milder than past Sunday-month-end Decembers, which have seen delinquencies jump +9.9% on average
• Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) rose to 475K, but were still 19% (-108K) below where they were they ended December 2022
• December’s 24K foreclosure starts marked an 18-month low in new activity, with total active foreclosures the lowest since March 2022 (212K), still 25% below (-71K) pre-pandemic levels
• Likewise, the 5.4K foreclosure sales (completions) in December were down -17.2% from November and the fewest since February 2022 – shortly after the end of COVID-era moratoria
• Prepayment activity rose +4.9% to a single month mortality rate of 0.39% on improving interest rates, but prepays remain constrained by both seasonal and affordability pressures

Note: that last column below is for the same month in 2019 to show the change from pre-pandemic levels.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 19, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the MLK holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates increased slightly last week but, there continues to be an upward trend in purchase activity. Conventional and FHA purchase applications drove most of the increase last week as some buyers moved to act early this season,” “Refinance applications declined over the week and remained at low levels. There is still little incentive for homeowners to refinance with rates at these levels.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.78 percent from 6.75 percent, with points increasing to 0.63 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 18% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still close to the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent increases, activity is barely off the bottom.

Housing January 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 7.1% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.2% week-over-week. It is not unusually to get a small increase after the holidays; however, inventory will likely decrease a little seasonally until the Spring (it could remain mostly flat for a few months like in 2019). This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 19th, inventory was at 506 thousand (7-day average), compared to 505 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 7.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 6.7%), and down 38.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 38.0%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 8.6% YoY; New Listings up 3.4% YoY -- Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending January 20, 2024 Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 8.6% above year ago levels. Active listings in the past week grew by 8.6% above the previous year, the 11th straight week of annual growth with no sign yet of a slowdown as growth in inventory increased from the previous week’s 7.9% rate. Should the uptick in new listings persist, the added inventory would greatly improve availability and affordability heading into the spring homebuying season but overall inventory is still 37.5% below similar weeks in 2017 to 2020. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 3.4% from one year ago. Newly listed homes continue to rise above last year’s levels for the 13th week in a row. However, this past week the number of newly listed homes grew by only 3.4% over last year, a slowing down of the 7.0% growth rate seen in the previous week. During the winter season, there is a smaller pool of both home buyers and sellers active in the market, which could lead to more week-to-week fluctuations. Nonetheless, this past week’s new listing count still represents a decline of 25.9% compared to similar weeks in 2017 to 2020. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 11th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. Inventory is still historically very low. New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now - although new listings remain well below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 13th consecutive week.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 8.3% December; Up 1.3% Year-over-year - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Climbed 8.3% in December Pending home sales in December elevated 8.3%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Northeast recorded a loss. The Midwest, South and West also registered year-over-year increases while the Northeast had a decline in transactions compared to last year. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 77.3 in December. Year over year, pending transactions were up 1.3%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ... The Northeast PHSI dropped 3.0% from last month to 62.3, a decline of 3.9% from December 2022. The Midwest index increased 5.6% to 80.5 in December, up 4.3% from one year ago. The South PHSI jumped 11.9% to 93.0 in December, rising 1.5% from the prior year. The West index surged 14.0% in December to 61.0, up 1.5% from December 2022. This was well above expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in January and February.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Financing Conditions Show Signs of Improvement, Apartment Market Continues to Loosen with Decreasing Deal Flow Apartment market conditions continued to weaken in the National Multifamily Housing Council's (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for January 2024. With the exception of Debt Financing (66), which turned positive this quarter, the Market Tightness (23), Sales Volume (34), and Equity Financing (44) indexes all came in below the breakeven level (50). ... "Yet, the apartment market continues to record decreasing rent growth and rising vacancy rates as it absorbs the highest level of new supply in more than thirty years.” • The Market Tightness Index came in at 23 this quarter – below the breakeven level (50) – indicating looser market conditions for the sixth consecutive quarter. A majority of respondents (59%) reported markets to be looser than three months ago, while only 5% thought markets have become tighter. Thirty-five percent of respondents thought market conditions had gone unchanged over the past three months.The quarterly index increased to 23 in January from 21 in October. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter. This index has been an excellent leading indicator for rents and vacancy rates, and this suggests higher vacancy rates and a further weakness in asking rents. This is the sixth consecutive quarter with looser conditions than the previous quarter.

NMHC and Fannie Mae Multi-Family Presentation -- Yesterday, Chris Bruen, Senior Director of Research at NMHC and Kim Betancourt, CRE, Vice President, Multifamily Economics and Strategic Research at Fannie Mae presented the State of the Multi-Family Market (see video recording of presentation). Here are a couple of slides from the presentation by Betancourt: The first graph shows quarterly rents and the vacancy rate over time. Rents surged in 2021, and then moved more sideways - and even declined in Q4 2023. The vacancy rate bottomed in Q2 2022 and has steadily increased. This is due to a combination more supply and less household formation (not mentioned in the presentation). The second graph shows annual rents and vacancy rates. Fannie expects rent growth to be sluggish in 2024, and the for the vacancy rate to increase to 6.25%. There are a couple of more graph in the presentation showing coming multi-family supply and rents by metro area.

New Home Sales increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in December -- The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.0 percent above the revised November rate of 615,000 and is 4.4 percent above the December 2022 estimate of 636,000. An estimated 668,000 new homes were sold in 2023. This is 4.2 percent above the 2022 figure of 641,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in December to 8.2 months from 8.8 months in November. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 453,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate" Sales were above expectations of 650 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised up, combined. I'll

New Home Sales increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in December; Average New Home Price is Down 14% from the Peak - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in December Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. ...The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in December 2023 were up 4.4% from December 2022. Annual new home sales in 2023 were at an estimated 668,000, up 4.2% from 641,000 in 2022.

Prices of New Houses Drop to 2-Year Low - by Wolf Richter • The median price of new single-family houses sold in December dropped to $413,200, down by about 17% from the peak in October 2022, and the lowest since December 2021, according to the Commerce Department today (blue).The three-month moving average, which irons out the monthly ups and downs, fell to $417,900, the lowest since October 2021, and down 12.8% from the peak in December 2022 (red).The largest homebuilders have been singing the same song in their earnings calls: This is a tough market where sales of existing homes have collapsed by one-third to just 4 million in 2023, the lowest in the data going back to 1995, from the normal level of around 6 million per year, but we, the homebuilders, know how to deal with this market. We’re building smaller houses with less costly amenities that we sell at lower prices, and we’re buying down mortgage rates at a considerable cost to us, and we’re hedging those buydowns, and when those hedges blow up, that costs us too, and we’re throwing other incentives at buyers, so that we can get the payment down. And now people can buy a new house for a lower mortgage payment than a resale home. And we’re competing with homeowners and taking sales away from them.D.R. Horton, which reported earnings a couple of days ago, said these trends will continue, that it will continue to build and price homes in a way to take share away from homeowners thinking of selling their own homes, and even though it took a hit to its gross margin, it will continue with the pricing and the mortgage rate buydowns, and it also disclosed some details of its rate-buydown hedges, which malfunctioned in the quarter and led to a $65 million charge, which we discussed here. And all this caused its shares to plunge. But its sales and orders were pretty decent – unlike existing home sales.For the industry overall, sales of new houses (contract signings) in December rose to 50,000 houses, up 6.4% year-over-year and up by 2% from December 2019. Winter is the slow time of the year, but this was pretty decent.This was the kind of stuff D.R. Horton said in its earnings call. Their strategies of trying to produce a lower mortgage payment and a lower price to take buyers away from the resale market is working.For all of 2023, sales rose by 4.2% from 2022, but were down substantially from the boom years 2020 and 2021. They were just a tad lower than in 2019, but up by 8% from 2018. So homebuilders are muddling through this tough market by dealing with reality: getting prices and payments down – while existing home sales have collapsed.

1.54 million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007 -- Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.54 million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007 Excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 9.0% in 2023 compared to 2022, completions increased year-over-year. Construction delays impacted completions in 2023, and that left a near record number of housing units under construction. However, there still were 1.543 million total completions and placements in 2023, the most since 2007. Not counting Manufactured homes, there are 1.453 million completions in 2023, up 4.5% from 1.390 million in 2022, and also the most since 2007. This graph shows total housing completions and placements since 1968 through 2023. Note that the net addition to the housing stock is less because of demolitions and destruction of older housing units. The housing start report last week indicated 1,002.4 thousand single family completions in 2023, 11.5 thousand in 2-to-4 units, and 438.6 thousand in 5+ units (up 22% from 2022, and the most since 1987).

AIA: "Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 17th Consecutive Month - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2023: Architecture firm billings remain soft to end the year - Nearly one third of firms report an uptick in significantly delayed projects over the past six months Business conditions at architecture firms remained soft to close out 2023, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 45.4 for December (any score below 50 indicates declining billings). Billings at firms declined for eight months of the year, with the only growth coming in some spring and summer months. However, clients largely remained interested in at least discussing potential new projects, since inquiries increased every month of the year except one. The value of new design contracts increased for only six months of the year, indicating that while clients were interested in new projects, they were generally less likely to commit to them by signing a contract. In addition, backlogs at firms remained quite strong throughout 2023, despite declining from a record-high peak in 2022. Backlogs at firms stood at an average of 6.7 months in December, indicating that most firms still have a significant amount of work in the pipeline. Firm billings declined at firms in all regions of the country except the Midwest in December, where billings were essentially flat. Billings declined for all or nearly all months of 2023 at firms located in the West and Northeast. Firms in the South saw growth in the second quarter but otherwise declined. Only firms located in the Midwest reported increasing billings for most of the year, although conditions also softened there by late summer. Business conditions were also weak for most of the year at firms of all specializations, with firms with a multifamily residential specialization experiencing a particularly challenging year. Firms with an institutional specialization reported growth in the second quarter, but billings softened for them as well by the end of the year. Billings were flat throughout much of the year at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization and remained soft to end the year.
• Regional averages: Northeast (45.9); South (43.4); Midwest (50.3); West (45.9)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.4); institutional (46.5); multifamily residential (45.8)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.4 in December, up from 45.3 in November. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2024. Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for seventeen consecutive months (with revisions). This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.

PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 6.4% YoY in December -- Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through December 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.2% year-over-year in December, down from 6.5% in November, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.4% YoY in December, down from 6.7% in November, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023. Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will continue to slow over coming months.The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 6 months (annualized): Key measures are now at or below the Fed's target on a 6-month basis.
PCE Price Index: 2.0%
Core PCE Prices: 1.9%
Core minus Housing: 1.1%

Personal Income increased 0.3% in December; Spending increased 0.7% -The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $60.0 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $51.8 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.9 billion (0.7 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in December and real PCE increased 0.5 percent; goods increased 1.1 percent and services increased 0.3 percent The December PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.6 percent YoY in November, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.9 percent YoY, down from 3.2 percent in November, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2023 (2017 dollars). Personal income was at expectations, and PCE was well above expectations. Inflation was slightly below expectations.

Inflation slowed further in December as an economic 'soft landing' moves into sharper focus (AP) — The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled further last month even as the economy kept growing briskly, a trend sure to be welcomed at the White House as President Joe Biden seeks re-election in a race that could pivot on his economic stewardship.Friday’s government report showed that prices rose just 0.2% from November to December, a pace consistent with pre-pandemic levels and barely above the Fed’s 2% annual target. Measured from a year earlier, prices increased 2.6%.Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called “core” prices rose just 0.2% from month to month and 2.9% from a year earlier — the smallest such rise since March 2021. Economists consider core prices a better gauge of the likely path of inflation. The latest data suggests that the economy is achieving an elusive“ soft landing,” in which inflation falls back to the Fed’s target without a recession. That outcome could make it easier for the Fed to consider cutting its key interest rate, which it raised 11 times since March 2022 to attack inflation. Higher interest rates have throttled home sales by raising the cost of borrowing. Businesses have also chafed under the higher borrowing costs.On Thursday, a government report showed that the economy expanded at a surprisingly strong 3.3% annual pace in the final three months of last year. Solid consumer spending propelled the growth, capping a year that had begun with widespread expectations of a recession but instead produced a healthy expansion. Biden’s Republican critics have sought to highlight what had been the biggest inflation spike in four decades, for which they have largely blamed the president’s spending policies. But with inflation having dropped sharply after an extended period of gloomy consumer sentiment, Americans are starting to show signs of feeling better about the economy. A measure of consumer confidence by the University of Michigan, for example, has jumped in the past two months by the most since 1991. The details in Friday’s report all point to inflation being in check: Measured over the past six months, prices are up just 1.9%, which is actually below the Fed’s 2% target. Over the past three months, the figure is even lower: 1.5%.

January Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.4 million SAAR, Up 2% YoY - From WardsAuto: January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Lukewarm; Unusually Strong Increase to Inventory Expected (pay content). Brief excerpt: There is upside to January’s sales outlook, which could help alleviate excesses, but rising inventory for some vehicles, including electric vehicles, fullsize pickups and SUVs, plus some individual models in other segments, is leading to some Q1 production slowdowns. However, overall inventory remains lean relative to demand, and production for the U.S. market is forecast to continue growing. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for January (Red). On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.4 million SAAR, would be down 2.7% from last month, and up 2% from a year ago.

US Movie Ticket Sales -46% in 2023 from 21 Years Ago: AMC and the Movie Theater Meltdown by Wolf Richter • Only 852 million movie tickets were sold in 2023, down by 46% from the peak year 2002 (1.85 billion tickets), so that was 21 years ago, and down by 31% from 2019 (1.23 billion tickets), despite the one-weekend wonder in July of “Barbenheimer” – the simultaneous theatrical release of Barbie and Oppenheimer. In 2023, there was no more lockdown, and people crammed into restaurants, airplanes, cruise ships, and Taylor Swift concerts. But streaming had risen to the next level, and people were watching movies at home. That had long been the trend. Before streaming, technologies for watching high-definition movies at home, such as DVD and Blu-ray, ate into ticket sales. But during the pandemic, streaming gained momentum in quantum leaps (ticket data via movie data provider The Numbers).This 46% decline in ticket sales over 21 years comes despite a 17% increase of the US population over the same period.On a per-capita basis, ticket sales plunged by 54% in 21 years, from an average of 5.5 tickets per person per year in 2002, to just 2.5 tickets per person per year in 2023:Over the past two decades, movie theaters have responded to this structural decline with big price increases – AMC is now asking $18.49 for one adult at its AMC Metreon 16 in San Francisco – thereby speeding up the structural decline?They also upgraded their theaters with big comfortable seats – such as the “AMC signature recliners” – and in some places offer real food, beer, and wine, trying to create an atmosphere of “experience.” But ticket sales just kept plunging over the years.But with rising ticket prices, revenues in dollars rose until 2019. In 2023, they were back to 2005 levels, with the total box office of $5.3 billion, according to The Numbers:What matters to movie theaters these days are blockbusters. The hype surrounding blockbusters still brings people to theaters – hence the strategy of “blockbusterization.” The result is a few blockbusters that studios and theater chains promote with huge fanfare, and that the media jump all over, amid declining overall ticket sales.In 2023, there were a few blockbusters. Barbie and Oppenheimer opened on the same weekend, a strategic decision that multiplied the hype in the media and the phenomenon was nicknamed Barbenheimer.So here are the top 10-grossing movies in 2023, according to data by The Numbers. Barbie sold 60.4 million tickets, and that was good. But by comparison, in 2019, Avengers: Endgame sold 93.7 million tickets.

Update on High Frequency Indicators: Airlines and Movie Tickets - I stopped the weekly updates of high frequency indicators at the end of 2022. Here is an early 2024 look at two indicators: The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of January 21, 2024. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Purple) and 2023 (Orange), and 2024 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is above the level for the same week in 2019 (104.1% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking solidly above pre-pandemic levels. ----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo ----- This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021, Orange is 2022, Dark Red is 2024, and Red is 2024. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through January 18th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales (dollars) have mostly been running below the pre-pandemic levels.

Airbus A330 Flight Cancelled After Passenger Spots 4 Missing Fasteners On Wing - “Well, at least it’s not a Boeing.”That was likely the thoughts of everyone in the Boeing C-suite, exhaling a collective sigh of relief, when the latest airline safety mishap began making its rounds through the newscycle Monday.That news was the cancellation of an Airbus A330 flight bound for New York after 41 year old passenger Phil Hardy looked out the window and noticed “screws missing from the plane’s wing,” according to the New York Post. The plane, set to take off as Flight VS127 from Manchester Airport, had “four missing fasteners,” according to the report. Hardy, a frequent flyer, said: “I’m a good flyer, but my partner was not loving the information I was telling her and starting to panic, and I was trying to put her mind at rest as much as I could.” He continued: “I thought it was best to mention it to a flight attendant to be on the safe side.” Engineers showed up to examine the plane and the flight was eventually cancelled.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 214,000 -The DOL reported:In the week ending January 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 187,000 to 189,000. The 4-week moving average was 202,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 203,250 to 203,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 202,250. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

Data: Work-from-home tools boosted productivity but widened income disparities amid COVID -The widespread adoption of work-from-home (WFH) technology during the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically changed the way Americans live and work, according to a Rutgers University–ledstudy.The researchers evaluated the effects of the adoption of work-from-home technology with an equilibrium model in which people choose where to live, how to allocate hours between home and the office, and how much physical space they need to work at home and in the office.Their findings were published today in the Review of Economic Studies.The shift to work from home began before the pandemic. From 2003 to 2019, the rate of only-WFH full workdays increased substantially, almost solely among workers with more than a high school diploma.For those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, the proportion of only-WFH full workdays more than doubled, from 4.0% to 8.5%, and for those with some college but no bachelor's degree, the proportion more than tripled, from 1.5% to 5.0%. But for those with a high school diploma or less, the share of only-WFH full workdays doesn't show a strong time trend.The researchers said that surveys suggest that, postpandemic, workers will roughly quadruple the time they work from home compared with before the pandemic. Some experts estimate that the full days of WFH quadrupled from 2019 to 2022. The boost in productivity of a day of WFH relative to a day at the office needed to quadruple the number of days worked from home is large: 48% for low-skill workers and 82% for more skilled workers.The authors said that these productivity gains would have likely happened eventually but were accelerated by the pandemic.WFH productivity didn't increase evenly, however. For example, the authors said that most workers can efficiently complete routine work tasks from home but may find it more efficient to complete collaborative work at the office.The increased productivity lowered the demand for office space and led to a roughly 7% decline in office rents in central business districts, while residential rents rose, particularly in the outer suburbs, owing to higher demand for home office space. This translated into a 14% increase in housing costs near downtowns and 24% in the outer suburbs.

Elon Musk: Diversity-oriented hiring policies are ‘fundamentally antisemitic’ --X owner and Tesla founder Elon Musk said Monday diversity-oriented hiring practices are “fundamentally antisemitic” after he toured the site of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp on Monday.“The diversity and equity, inclusion — we should always be, always be wary of any name that sounds like it could come out of a George Orwell book,” Musk said during an interview with conservative commentator Ben Shapiro at the European Jewish Association Conference in Poland.“What it really means is discrimination on the basis of race, sex, sexual orientation, and it’s against merit and, thus, I think is fundamentally antisemitic,” he continued. Musk has been outspoken against diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies in recent weeks, saying that those policies are racist in a series of posts on X, formerly Twitter.“Discrimination on the basis of race, which DEI does, is literally the definition of racism,” he wrote in a post earlier this month.Musk’s comments on Monday came after he visited the site of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp in Oswiecim, Poland. His visit comes after Musk faced blowback for the prevalence of antisemitic messages on X and his own views.Musk faced backlash in November after he appeared to endorse an antisemitic post on X, calling it the “absolute truth.” Later that month, numerous major companies decided to pull their advertisements from X after a Media Matters report found that ads for brands had been placed next to pro-Nazi content on the platform.Musk also claimed without evidence Monday that audits have shown there is less antisemitic content on X compared to other platforms. “The outside audits that we’ve had done, at the ones that we’ve had done, show that there is the least amount of antisemitism on X, if you look at all the other social apps,” Musk said during the event.

Tennessee bill targets adults who take minors out of state for abortion -The Tennessee legislature introduced a bill on Monday that targets adults who take minors out of the state to have an abortion.The bill says that an adult who “recruits, harbors, or transports a pregnant unemancipated minor within this state for the purpose of” aiding them in getting access to actions that constitute “criminal abortion” under Tennessee law “commits the offense of abortion trafficking of a minor,” despite where the action occurs.It also notes that it would not be a viable “defense to a prosecution” if the minor consented to actions.President Biden went after former President Trump for the recent rise of restrictions when it comes to abortion access in the U.S. at a campaign rally Tuesday, where he warned his supporters about the risks Trump’s possible return to the White House poses to reproductive rights.“Let there be no mistake. The person most responsible for taking away this freedom in America is Donald Trump,” Biden said.“The reason women are being forced to travel across state lines for health care is Donald Trump,” he added. “The reason their fundamental right has been stripped away is Donald Trump.”The former president appointed three of the judges who ruled in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade in mid-2022, kicking off a wave of increasing restrictions on abortion in states like Tennessee.“Donald Trump is betting we won’t vote on this issue … He’s betting you’re going to stop caring … that you’ll get distracted, discouraged and stay home,” Biden said. “Well guess what? I’m betting he’s wrong.”

Appeals court rules Pennsylvania can’t bar 18-to 20-year-olds from carrying guns -- A federal appeals court in Pennsylvania ruled Thursday against laws banning 18- to 20-year-olds from carrying guns in public during a state of emergency. In a 2-1 decision, judges In a 2-1 decision, judges in the 3rd U.S. Circuit relied on the Supreme Court’s Bruen decision to rule that young adults in the state have the same Second Amendment rights as other citizens,The Associated Press reported. “The words ‘the people’ in the Second Amendment presumptively encompass all adult Americans, including 18-to-20-year-olds, and we are aware of no founding-era law that supports disarming people in that age group,” the judges wrote in the ruling. “Accordingly, we will reverse and remand.” The Bruen decision said judges must look to the nation’s history and tradition when evaluating gun control measures, the AP noted. The state police commissioner attempted to prove that in founding-era regulations, people under 21 were still considered minors. Circuit Judge Kent A. Jordan wrote that he did not prove such founding-era regulations restricted their Second Amendment rights. In his dissent, Circuit Judge Felipe Restrepo said he did believe that the Founding Fathers considered people under 21 to be minors and to not have full legal rights.

Writing by hand may increase brain connectivity more than typing on a keyboard -- As digital devices progressively replace pen and paper, taking notes by hand is becoming increasingly uncommon in schools and universities. Using a keyboard is recommended because it's often faster than writing by hand. However, the latter has been found to improve spelling accuracy and memory recall.To find out if the process of forming letters by hand resulted in greater brain connectivity, researchers in Norway now investigated the underlying neural networks involved in both modes of writing."We show that when writing by hand, brain connectivity patterns are far more elaborate than when typewriting on a keyboard," said Prof Audrey van der Meer, a brain researcher at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology and co-author of the study published in Frontiers in Psychology."Such widespread brain connectivity is known to be crucial for memory formation and for encoding new information and, therefore, is beneficial for learning." The researchers collected EEG data from 36 university students who were repeatedly prompted to either write or type a word that appeared on a screen. When writing, they used a digital pen to write in cursive directly on a touchscreen. When typing they used a single finger to press keys on a keyboard.High-density EEGs, which measure electrical activity in the brain using 256 small sensors sewn in a net and placed over the head, were recorded for five seconds for every prompt.Connectivity of different brain regions increased when participants wrote by hand, but not when they typed. "Our findings suggest that visual and movement information obtained through precisely controlled hand movements when using a pen contribute extensively to the brain's connectivity patterns that promote learning," van der Meer said."We have shown that the differences in brain activity are related to the careful forming of the letters when writing by hand while making more use of the senses," van der Meer explained. Since it is the movement of the fingers carried out when forming letters that promotes brain connectivity, writing in print is also expected to have similar benefits for learning as cursive writing.On the contrary, the simple movement of hitting a key with the same finger repeatedly is less stimulating for the brain. "This also explains why children who have learned to write and read on a tablet, can have difficulty differentiating between letters that are mirror images of each other, such as 'b' and 'd.' They literally haven't felt with their bodies what it feels like to produce those letters," van der Meer said.

Ohio Legislature Overrides Governor’s Pro-Trans Veto, Bans Procedures For Minors - The Ohio Senate voted on Wednesday to override Republican Gov. Mike DeWine’s veto of a bill that would ban gender transition procedures for minors and prohibit male athletes from playing on female sports teams.The state Senate voted 23-9 to override the veto. The state House voted 65-28 to do the same earlier this month. Republicans have a majority in both chambers. The vote mostly followed party lines, except for state Sen. Nathan Manning, a Cuyahoga County Republican who consistently breaks from his party on the issue. Mr. DeWine vetoed the bill in late December, to the chagrin of his party, telling reporters during a press conference that such a measure, if allowed to become law, would do more harm than good. The bill, also known as the Saving Ohio Adolescents from Experimentation Act, would ban doctors from performing gender-related surgeries and administering puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to minors. Other provisions of the bill would bar schools from allowing male athletes to join female sports teams in high schools and colleges, reflecting a nationwide trend to address concerns about fairness in women’s sports. The ban is set to take effect in 90 days. Advocates of the bill argue that irreversible interventions related to individuals’ favored gender identity can have long-term consequences, urging instead for a shift toward compassionate mental health care and therapy for minors. Ohio has joined North Carolina and Louisiana in overriding the governor’s veto to enact similar bans.

New York educators horrified by Zionist chemical attack on Columbia University students - On January 19, Columbia University students were assaulted by two Zionist hoodlums, themselves Columbia students and former members of the Israel Defense Forces. The former IDF soldiers used a chemical spray to attack a pro-Palestinian protest on Columbia’s Morningside Heights campus in Manhattan. As of this writing, 10 students have sought medical treatment after being sprayed with what appears to be a noxious substance known as “skunk water.” The Israel Defense Forces has used the substance on Palestinian demonstrators on the West Bank. As Al-Jazeera has noted, “Skunk water is a liquid compound with an overpowering odour that has been described by those who have experienced it as the smell of sewage mixed with rotting corpses. In reality, it is a concoction of chemicals that causes intense nausea, obstructing normal breathing, causing violent gagging and vomiting.” This is an accurate description of the substance used on the students, who have since exhibited the same symptoms. While the Zionist student attackers have been identified and banned from campus, other students have reported seeing them on campus. The university administration has taken no serious disciplinary action, and the New York City police, to whom the incident has been reported, have made no moves to arrest the perpetrators. Instead, the university blamed the victims in the attack with a news release on Monday that said, “Friday’s protest violated University policies and was therefore unsanctioned” and that “these policies exist to maintain personnel on scene for the safety of the community.” Sanctioned or not, campus security made no effort to protect anti-genocide protesters from infiltration and harassment by Zionists. As one victim noted yesterday on Twitter: What more proof do we need for @Columbia to listen to us? 10 students are hospitalized. Their own employees got skunked. We have photos + videos and eyewitnesses. This stuff could have killed someone. Does one of us have to die before they do anything besides send emails?As news of the attack spread—primarily though social media and not through mainstream media outlets, which did not report it at first—outrage spread among thousands of students and workers.In particular, educators throughout New York state, who themselves have been threatened, silenced, doxxed and witch-hunted for opposing the genocide against Palestinians, have expressed anger. Social media posts, however, represent only the tip of the iceberg of disgust at the incident and Columbia’s reaction, and at the broader series of attacks on free speech on campuses, including the forced resignations of the presidents of Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania.

Ron DeSantis condemned as Florida removes sociology as core college class -Educators are warning that college enrollment in Florida will plummet after the state removed sociology as a core class from campuses in the latest round of Ron DeSantis’s war on “woke ideology”.The Republican governor’s hand-picked board of education voted on Wednesday to replace the established course on the principles of sociology at its 12 public universities with its own US history curriculum, incorporating an “historically accurate account of America’s founding [and] the horrors of slavery”.The board faced a backlash last summer for requiring public schools to teach that forced labor was beneficial to enslaved Black people because it taught them useful skills.The removal as a required core course of sociology classes, which Florida education commissioner and staunch DeSantis acolyte Manny Díaz insisted without evidence had “been hijacked by leftwing activists,” follows several other recent “anti-woke” moves in education in Florida. They include the banning an advanced placement class in African American studies, and last week’s board ruling crystalizing a plan by DeSantis, who dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination at the weekend, to abolish diversity, enquiry and inclusion (DEI) programs in Florida’s universities and colleges.

Pennsylvania governor proposes sweeping overhaul of higher education system - Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) announced Friday a plan to overhaul the higher education system in the state, pointing out that Pennsylvania ranks 48th for affordability and 49th for investment for its universities. The four-point plan has been in development for a year under the Higher Education Working Group, which Shapiro created to generate suggestions. The first point in the plan would bring together approximately 10 of the state’s public universities and around 15 of its community colleges and put them under a new governance system. The second prong puts more investment into higher education and makes it so low- or middle-income Pennsylvanians wouldn’t have to pay more than $1,000 per semester at state universities or community colleges. Third, Shapiro wants his universities to receive funding based on how they are performing and increase transparency in the outcomes at the schools. Lastly, he wants the funding to go through the state’s Department of Education, and not the Legislature. “Every Pennsylvanian deserves the freedom to chart their own course and the opportunity to succeed,” the governor said. “For some, that means going right into the workforce — but for those who want to go to college or get a credential, we need to rethink our system of higher education. Whether you want to take one course to brush up on your skills, earn a certificate to qualify for a promotion, or pursue a degree that will lead to a new career — you deserve accessible, affordable higher education options.” More information on exactly what the investments will look like is expected to come during Shapiro’s budget address Feb. 6.

Colleges are here to be places of learning, not performative politics -In December, the presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT went before Congress to address antisemitism on campus. Their studied hypocrisy on the issue of free speech triggered a bipartisan avalanche of criticism, ultimately leading to the ousters of Penn’s Liz Magill and Harvard’s Claudine Gay.The fallout has made the college campus the momentary front line in our polarized culture clashes. This is a good moment to step back and ensure that our principles don’t get sacrificed in the name of point-scoring.Professors insisting that plagiarism isn’t always “plagiarism” (at least not when it involves right-wingers criticizing the president of Harvard) have risked lasting damage to the principle of academic integrity. So, too, do we risk undermining campus free speech if we’re not clear about what it’s for and why it matters. Oddly absent of late has been any evident recognition that the historic rationale for campus speech is not to provide protesters with bucolic backdrops, but to enable scholars to challenge received wisdom, students to ask uncomfortable questions, and classrooms to serve as places of genuine learning.As Yale’s famed Report of the Committee on Freedom of Expression put it in 1974, responding to the excesses of the 1960s: “The primary function of a university is to discover and disseminate knowledge by means of research and teaching…The university must do everything possible to ensure within it the fullest degree of intellectual freedom. The history of intellectual growth and discovery clearly demonstrates the need for unfettered freedom, the right to think the unthinkable, discuss the unmentionable, and challenge the unchallengeable.” A lot of questions have now arisen about double standards and free speech, with college leaders drawing well-deserved ridicule when they insist it’s their passion for free speech that stops them from addressing antisemitic chants for genocide. After all, these same leaders have a track record of silencing views that offend campus orthodoxy. Harvard disinvited feminist philosopher Devin Buckley for rejecting transgender ideology. UPenn investigated law professor Amy Wax for promoting “bourgeois values.” MIT canceled a prestigious guest lecture by geophysicist Dorian Abbot because of his criticism of DEI. But these snapshots of hypocrisy at high-profile campuses risk distracting us from the bigger problem, which is that colleges are failing miserably at their core educational mission. After all, 45 percent of college students say they’re frequently afraid to share their thoughts in college classrooms. When it comes to controversial topics, over half of students say they’re uncomfortable voicing their views in class or disagreeing with a professor in a written assignment. Heck, Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government reported that most students aren’t comfortable sharing their views on controversies “related to politics, international affairs, and public policy” in classrooms or seminars. That’s a big problem at a school of public policy. There’s been so much focus on what protesters are saying that it’s been easy to skip past the fact that there’s nothing particularly educational about any of it. Indeed, they’ve contributed to a performative culture that stymies robust, formative educational discourse. Unfortunately, thanks to the countercultural conceits of ’60s radicalism, sit-ins and raucous rallies have somehow become the measuring stick of campus free expression. This is a problem — one that’s made worse by the students themselves. Campus observers note that many youth today seem more comfortable shouting as part of a mob than speaking for themselves in the isolation of a classroom. Gen Z has grown up inhabiting insular online communities that reward theatrically dissing those who disagree. It can be easier for campus officials to cater to this tendency than to challenge it. And campus groupthink may be making things still worse. While there’s certainly plenty of illiberalism on the contemporary right, it’s mostly left-leaning students who are stifling discourse on campus today. Forty-two percent of “very liberal” students say they’ve canceled someone; just eight percent of “very conservative” students say the same.

Harvard Teaching Hospital To Retract Papers As Falsified Data Scandal Unfolds - Weeks after Harvard President Claudine Gay resigned amid a plagiarism scandal, the university's teaching hospital is set to retract or correct dozens of papers authored by four of their top researchers, following claims of data falsification. Six papers have already been selected for retraction, and 31 others are in the process of being corrected by the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, according to the Harvard Crimson, citing the hospital’s research integrity officer, Dr. Barrett Rollins. The corrections come amid claims of data manipulation against DFCI President and CEO Laurie H. Glimcher ’72, Executive Vice President and COO William C. Hahn ’87, Senior Vice President for Experimental Medicine Irene M. Ghobrial, and Harvard Medical School professor Kenneth C. Anderson. The allegations of misconduct were first compiled and publicized in a Jan. 2 blog post by data sleuth Sholto David. In the statement, Rollins wrote that David contacted DFCI with allegations of data manipulation in 57 manuscripts. According to Rollins, 38 were articles in which DFCI researchers “have primary responsibility for the potential data errors.”Four of the researchers at the Dana-Faber center have faculty appointments with the Harvard Medical Schoo

Biden administration to forgive $4.9B in debt for 73,600 student borrowers - The Biden administration announced Friday it was forgiving almost $5 billion for some 73,600 student loan borrowers. The White House said more than half, almost 44,000, of the borrowers who received student debt relief Friday are teachers, nurses, firefighters and other individuals who have been on the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program for 10 years. The other almost 30,000 borrowers have been on an income-driven repayment program for 20 years. With the announcement, President Biden brought up the total number of borrowers who have seen debt forgiveness under his administration to 3.7 million. “My Administration is able to deliver relief to these borrowers — and millions more — because of fixes we made to broken student loan programs that were preventing borrowers from getting relief they were entitled to under the law,” Biden said in a statement. In the announcement, he highlighted student loan accomplishments in his administration such as increasing federal Pell Grants, making changes to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and implementing the SAVE income-driven repayment option. He also pointed out after the Supreme Court defeat of his universal student debt relief proposal, the administration has been working on another plan for mass loan forgiveness, although it seems the new path will not reach as many borrowers as the previous one. “From Day One of my Administration, I vowed to improve the student loan system so that a higher education provides Americans with opportunity and prosperity — not unmanageable burdens of student loan debt. I won’t back down from using every tool at our disposal to get student loan borrowers the relief they need to reach their dreams,” Biden said.

Biden has forgiven billions in student loans. Who has gotten the relief? -Under the Biden administration, more than 3.7 million student loan borrowers have had their debt forgiven by various executive actions. Despite President Biden’s failure to fulfill a major campaign promise by giving out universal student debt relief, he has made strides on the loans through other avenues, including fixes in income-driven repayment (IDR) options.Many borrowers, largely those on IDR plans and in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program, have received relief, but they represent only a small fraction of the 44.5 million Americans with student debt. The administration has forgiven $136.6 billion for more than 3.7 million student loan borrowers in the first three years of Biden’s presidency.On Friday, the administration announced almost $5 billion in debt relief for almost 74,000 people, including $3.2 billion for those on the PSLF program, which is available to people in government jobs and certain nonprofit workers. In total, the administration has forgiven $56.7 billion for 793,400 PSLF borrowers.About $1.7 billion of the forgiveness went to borrowers who have been paying on their student loans for 20 years on an IDR plan but have not received their forgiveness. In total, the administration said it has forgiven $45.7 billion in loans through the IDR plans for 930,500 borrowers. Besides relief via the IDR and PSLF, the Department of Education said 513,000 borrowers have received forgiveness due to permanent disabilities, and $22.5 billion has been received by 1.3 million borrowers who were defrauded by their schools. The Biden administration has also announced it will start forgiving student loans in February for borrowers on the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan who took out less than $12,000 and have been paying on them for at least 10 years. Individuals with permanent disabilities have received a considerable amount of debt relief, as have people who went to schools accused of deceptive marketing. For example, Biden canceled almost $6 billion in student loans for borrowers who went to Corinthian Colleges, a system of schools accused of lying to students about job prospects and earnings potential from their programs. Those receiving forgiveness through most IDR programs have been paying on their loans consecutively for at least 20-25 years. The forgiveness that will come through the SAVE plan for borrowers who took out less than $12,000 in student loans and have been paying for 10 years will likely help borrowers who went to college but may not have finished the degree, low-income borrowers and people who went to community college.The last round of student debt relief has been aimed at the PSLF program, which is open to government employees such as teachers, police officers and firefighters. While the Biden administration has provided more debt relief than past presidents, the campaign promise of at least $10,000 for all student loan borrowers remains elusive. Biden did attempt to give at least $10,000 to all student loan borrowers in 2022, but those efforts were struck down by the Supreme Court last summer. Targeted student loan relief has been an easier path for the administration, as it has used previously established programs.The universal student debt relief option Biden previously tried hinged on the emergency powers that were left over from the pandemic, and which the Supreme Court deemed inefficient for such a big policy.The administration is now attempting to create a new student debt relief process through the Higher Education Act (HEA).The negotiated rulemaking process to create a new program for the HEA has been in progress, and relevant stakeholders have been debating what the next steps should be.However, indications from the meetings show that this debt relief will likely not be as universal as Biden’s previous effort, partly to try to make it hold up against legal challenges. The meetings have centered on debt relief for five groups — borrowers who entered repayment decades ago, borrowers whose balances are greater than what they originally owed, borrowers who are eligible for relief under specific programs but didn’t apply, borrowers under financial hardship, and borrowers who went through programs that didn’t give financial value. The plan will not be finalized until the last moment and is subject to change at any point in this process.

Alabama inmate becomes first in U.S. to be executed with nitrogen gas - Alabama on Thursday became the first state to execute a death row inmate using nitrogen gas.Kenneth Smith was put to death by nitrogen hypoxia at the William C. Holman Correctional Facility in Atmore, Ala., making his death the first in the U.S. to be carried out using the previously untested method.Smith was executed for his role in the murder-for-hire plot of Elizabeth Sennett in 1988.Alabama Department of Corrections Commissioner John Hamm addressed reporters during a press conference later Thursday night, noting that the state began carrying out the execution at 7:53 p.m. Central time. Smith was pronounced deceased at 8:25 p.m. Central time.Nitrogen gas was flowing for approximately 15 minutes during the execution, he noted.Smith reportedly shook for at least two minutes after the execution began and appeared conscious for several minutes, according to pool media witnesses. Hamm said that Smith held his breath initially and that the movements were involuntary and were expected side effects of death by nitrogen gas based on their research. He also claimed he didn’t notice Smith remaining conscious.“Nothing was out of the ordinary of what we were expecting,” Hamm said in response to the claims. Pool Media witnesses report that Smith’s final statement was “Tonight, Alabama caused humanity to take a step backward.”

Alabama man shook violently on gurney during first-ever nitrogen gas execution (AP) — A man put to death using nitrogen gas shook and convulsed for minutes on the gurney as Alabama carried out the first-of-its-kind execution that has ignited debate over the humaneness of the method. Breathing through a nitrogen-filled face mask that deprived him of oxygen, 58-year-old convicted killer Kenneth Eugene Smith convulsed in seizurelike spasms for at least two minutes of the 22-minute execution by nitrogen hypoxia Thursday. The force of his movements at times caused the gurney to visibly shake. That was followed by several minutes of gasping breathing until his breath was no longer perceptible. Smith's supporters expressed alarm at how the execution played out, saying it was the antithesis of the state's promise of a quick and painless death. But Alabama's attorney general characterized the execution as “textbook” during a Friday news conference.“As of last night, nitrogen hypoxia as a means of execution is no longer an untested method. It is a proven one," Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall said, extending an offer of help for states considering adopting the method. Asked about Smith’s shaking and convulsing on the gurney, Alabama Corrections Commissioner John Q. Hamm said they appeared to be involuntary movements.“That was all expected and was in the side effects that we’ve seen or researched on nitrogen hypoxia,” Hamm said. “Nothing was out of the ordinary from what we were expecting." Marshall said he anticipated Alabama "will definitely have more nitrogen hypoxia executions.” More than 40 death row inmates have selected nitrogen as their preferred execution method over lethal injection but did so at a time when the state hadn’t developed nitrogen procedures.Report finds 93 US deaths after cosmetic surgery in Dominican Republic since 2009 - On Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said 93 Americans have died after cosmetic surgery in the Dominican Republic since 2009, with many of the recent deaths involving a procedure known as a Brazilian butt lift. The operation has grown in popularity recently and has led to deaths in other countries as well, including the U.S. A report issued Thursday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could not say how common these deaths are or whether they are more common in the Dominican Republic. The report suggests steps that medical tourists should consider before traveling to get work done."Be informed about who is doing your surgery, the qualifications of the person doing your surgery, and whether or not the facility is capable of doing the surgery and whether it is capable of providing adequate post-operative care—which is crucial," said Dr. Matthew Hudson, the study's first author.A Brazilian butt lift involves injecting fat. The report included details of about two dozen of the deaths, and most were the result of fat or blood clots getting into the lungs or bloodstream.Complications from cosmetic surgery are not unique to the Dominican Republic. Reports of deaths after cosmetic surgeries have repeatedly surfaced in the United States, perhaps most often in Florida. The CDC on Thursday issued a separate report about 15 cases of bacterial infections in women who went to one Florida cosmetic surgery center in 2022.Sporadic reports also have come out of Mexico, including last year when U.S. patients were stricken with fungal meningitis after undergoing cosmetic procedures in the border city of Matamoros. Two clinics were closed and a dozen deaths reported.The Dominican Republic is known as a friendly island vacation spot, and some doctors there advertise in the U.S., offering breast implants, liposuction and other operations at lower prices. After an increase in U.S. deaths in 2019 and 2020, the U.S. Embassy contacted the CDC, which investigated along with the Dominican Republic Ministry of Health.They tallied 93 cosmetic surgery-related deaths of U.S. citizens in the Dominican Republic from 2009 to 2022, or an average of about seven a year. All but one were women. More than half of the deaths occurred since 2019, coinciding with the increasing popularity of Brazilian butt lifts. In the U.S., nearly 29,000 of those procedures were done in 2022, according to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons.

New pediatric sepsis criteria shift focus to organ dysfunction - The Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) yesterday releasednew criteria for sepsis in children that experts say have the potential to improve diagnosis, care, and outcomes. The criteria developed by SCCM's Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce replace 2005 guidelines from the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) that characterized sepsis as suspected or confirmed infection in the presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, a definition now seen as outdated and as having poor predictive value. To develop the new criteria, the SCCM task force used evidence from an international survey of clinicians, systematic review and meta-analysis, and an international cohort study that collected data on more than 3 million children in both low- and high-income countries. Pediatric sepsis causes an estimated 3.3 million deaths annually, with the biggest impact seen in children in lower-resource settings, where the risk of developing sepsis is higher in children than in any other age group. Given the high morbidity and mortality associated with pediatric sepsis, the World Health Organization has called for dedicated efforts to improve its diagnosis, prevention, and management.The updated criteria were presented at the 2024 Critical Care Congress and appeared yesterday in JAMA.Based on the survey, the task force determined that sepsis is defined by most clinicians as infection with life-threatening organ dysfunction. Subsequent review of 16 studies evaluating sepsis and 71 evaluating outcomes confirmed that organ dysfunction is strongly associated with both sepsis and mortality. The task force then used data from the cohort study to determine which organ dysfunction criteria best predict mortality among children with suspected or confirmed infection. Of the 172,984 children in the study with suspected infection in the first 24 hours, a 4-organ-system model­­­ (including cardiovascular, coagulation, neurological, and respiratory systems) performed better in diagnosing sepsis and septic shock and predicting morality than the existing IPSCC criteria, and that model was translated into an integer score called the Phoenix Criteria Score. Under the new criteria, pediatric sepsis in children with suspected infection is identified by at least 2 points in the Phoenix Criteria Score, and septic shock as sepsis with at least 1 point in the score.

Researchers detail long-term burden of pediatric bacterial meningitis --Nearly one third of adults in a Swedish cohort who contracted bacterial meningitis as children have permanent neurologic disabilities as a result, a new JAMA Network Open studysuggests. Led by scientists from Merck and the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, the analysis of nationwide registry data included 3,623 adults who had bacterial meningitis before they were 18 years old from 1987 to 2021 and 32,607 matched uninfected controls. The median age at meningitis diagnosis was 1.5 years, 44.2% were women, and 55.8% were men; median follow-up was 23.7 years.The study authors noted that bacterial meningitis, inflammation of the membranes covering the brain and spinal cord, is a rare but life-threatening infection most common among children and older adults.Often caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, bacterial meningitis can be cured with antibiotics. But because antibiotics may need a few days to cross the blood-brain barrier, by the time they reach the brain, neurons can already have been damaged. "Further, there is the constant threat of antibiotic-resistance to face in the clinics," they wrote. Participants who had bacterial meningitis as children had a higher rate of all seven studied neurologic disabilities, and nearly one-third (29.0%) had at least one such disability, compared with one-tenth of controls. The highest absolute risk of disabilities was for behavioral and emotional disorders, hearing loss, and impaired vision. The greatest adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] were for structural head injuries (aHR, 26.0), hearing loss (aHR, 7.90), and motor function disorders (aHR, 4.65). The aHRs for cognitive disabilities, seizures, hearing loss, and motor function disorders were significantly higher for people infected with S pneumoniae (eg, aHR, 7.89 for seizures), compared with Haemophilus influenzae (aHR, 2.46) and Neisseria meningitidis (aHR, 1.38). The aHRs for cognitive disabilities, seizures, behavioral and emotional disorders, and intracranial structural injuries were significantly higher for children who developed bacterial meningitis at a younger age. For example, the aHR for seizures was 5.43 for those diagnosed when they were younger than the median age, compared with 2.87 for those diagnosed when older. "Our interpretation is that the damage to the brain and nervous system that can follow an episode of bacterial meningitis is more detrimental for young children who are at a sensitive stage in their physical and mental development," the researchers wrote.

CDC warns about RSV vaccine administration errors in babies, pregnant women The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today warned clinicians about errors in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) administration in young children and pregnant women, which follows the release of two newly approved RSV vaccines for adults and an injectable RSV monoclonal antibody preventive called nirsevimab (Beyfortus) for babies and young children.The errors were reported through the CDC's Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). The CDC described the situation in a COCA Now clinician outreach email.The events involving children younger than 2 years old who received Pfizer's Abrysvo or GSK's Arexvy were rare, with 25 such cases reported. Most occurred in babies younger than 8 months and in outpatient settings.Meanwhile, about 128 instances of pregnant women mistakenly getting Arexvy were reported, also most commonly reported in outpatient settings, including pharmacies. Abrysvo is the only RSV vaccine recommended for pregnant women as a tool for protecting young babies from RSV infection.In its notice to clinicians, the CDC said most administration errors described no adverse events, and when adverse events did occur, they were recorded in VAERS as nonserious."CDC, FDA, and other federal agencies continue to monitor the safety of RSV vaccines and reports of vaccine administration errors and will share information with the public as it becomes available," the CDC said. The group also issued recommendations for clinicians who have administered the incorrect vaccine, including that children who got one of the two RSV vaccines receive a dose of Beyfortus and that babies of pregnant women who mistakenly got Arexvy get Beyfortus during RSV season if younger than 8 months.

A new COVID variant is dominant in the US: Know these symptoms -- The United States is in the middle of a winter wave of COVID-19 driven by a heavily mutated, fast-spreading new variant called JN.1. The highly contagious omicron subvariant now accounts for over 85% of cases nationwide.JN.1 is a direct offshoot of BA.2.86, aka “Pirola,” with an additional mutation that affects its ability to evade immunity. In December, JN.1 rapidly overtook other variants — including HV.1 and EG.5 or Eris — to become the dominant strain in the U.S. and globally.The JN.1 variant may be “intensifying the spread of COVID-19 this winter,”the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in an update on Jan. 5.According to some experts and data models, the U.S. is in its second-largest COVID wave, smaller than only the omicron surge in late 2021 and early 2022. Low vaccine uptake, waning immunity, and holiday gatherings likely also fueled the recent spike in cases.Currently, JN.1 is the fastest-growing variant in the U.S., per the CDC. In the last month, the share of cases caused by JN.1 has quadrupled.During a two-week period ending on Jan. 20, JN.1 accounted for 85.7% of cases in the U.S., per the CDC’s latest estimates. This was a steep increase from 62% during the previous two-week period ending on Jan. 6 and 44% during the two-week period ending on Dec. 23. In November, JN.1 accounted for less than 5% of cases.JN.1's takeover comes as COVID hospitalizations rise, influenza continues to spread and RSV activity remains high in many places across the country. JN.1 was first reported in August 2023, and it has spread to at least 41 countries so far, according to the World Health Organization. On Dec. 18, the WHO classified JN.1 as a “variant of interest” due to its rapid spread worldwide.Just like other COVID-19 strains that gained dominance in the last year, JN.1 is part of the omicron family, which emerged in late 2021."Think of (the variants) as children and grandchildren of omicron. They're part of the same extended family, but they each have their own distinctive personalities," Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, tells TODAY.com.JN.1 descended from BA.2.86, which is a sublineage of the omicron BA.2 variant, TODAY.com previously reported — that's what sets JN.1 and BA.2.86 apart from the other prevailing variants like HV.1 and EG.5, which descended from omicron XBB.BA.2.86 has more than 30 mutations compared to the omicron XBB.1.5 variant, the dominant strain for most of 2023 and the variant targeted in the updated COVID-19 vaccine, TODAY.com previously reported.“When its parent BA.2.86 emerged, everybody was worried because it had a lot of mutations and looked like it was going to evade a lot of the immunity from vaccines and infection in the population,” Andrew Pekosz, Ph.D., professor and vice chair in the Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, tells TODAY.com. “But (BA.2.86) sort of fizzled out,” he adds.Laboratory data suggest that Pirola is less contagious and immune-evasive than scientists once feared, NBC News reported.JN.1, however, picked up an additional mutation in its spike protein, says Pekosz. Spike proteins help the virus latch onto human cells and play a crucial role in helping SARS-CoV-2 infect people, per the CDC. This mutation may affect JN.1's immune escape properties, says Pekosz."Now it's circulating and growing at a really fast rate compared to other variants, as well as the parent it’s derived from (BA.2.86),” says Pekosz. In early November, JN.1 accounted for fewer than 1% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Several weeks later, it was driving over 20% of cases. Now, it's causing the majority of cases worldwide. However, JN.1 does not pose an increased public health risk compared to other variants in circulation, the CDC and WHO said.It’s not known whether JN.1 causes different symptoms from other variants, according the CDC.“Right now, there’s nothing that says that JN.1 infection is any different from previous COVID variants in terms of disease severity or symptoms, but we’re paying close attention,” says Pekosz.While severe infections do still occur, overall “(COVID-19) is causing a lot of milder illness,” says Schaffner.

Immune escape of BA.2.86 is comparable to XBB subvariants from the plasma of BA.5‐ and BA.5‐XBB‐convalescent subpopulations - Yang - 2024 - Journal of Medical Virology - -- Abstract: The EG.5.1 variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been prevalent since mid-July 2023 in the United States and China. The variant BA.2.86 has become a major concern because it is 34 mutations away from the parental variant BA.2 and >30 mutations from XBB.1.5. There is an urgent need to evaluate whether the immunity of the population and current vaccines are protective against EG.5.1 and BA.2.86. Based on a cohort of two breakthrough-infected groups, the levels of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against different subvariants were measured using pseudovirus-based neutralization assays. XBB.1.5, EG.5.1, and BA.2.86 are comparably immune-evasive from neutralization by the plasma of individuals recovered from BA.5 infection (BA.5-convalescent) or XBB.1.9.2/XBB.1.5 infection following BA.5 infection (BA.5-XBB-convalescent). NAb levels against EG.5.1 and BA.2.86 subvariants remained >120 geometric mean titers (GMTs) in BA.5-XBB-convalescent individuals 2 months postinfection but were <40 GMTs in BA.5-convalescent individuals. Furthermore, the XBB-targeting messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine RQ3033 induced higher levels of NAbs against XBB.1.5, EG.5.1, and BA.2.86 than against BA.5-XBB infection. The results suggest that BA.2.86 and EG.5.1 are unlikely to cause more severe concerns than the currently circulating XBB subvariants and that the XBB.1.5-targeting mRNA vaccine tested has promising protection against EG.5.1 and BA.2.86.

Jan 26th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Increased --Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more than quadrupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.Hospitalizations are less than 20% of the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.COVID Metrics (table). This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported. Weekly deaths have more than quadrupled from a low of 485 in early July. Still weekly deaths are far below the weekly peak of 26,000 in January 2021.And here is a graph I'm following on COVID in wastewater as of Jan 25th: This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths. COVID in wastewater is now off about 40% of the holiday peak at the end of December, and that suggests weekly deaths will start to decrease soon.

Omicron breakthrough infection prevents serious illness from JN.1: Study - The human immune system that encountered breakthrough infection by the Omicron variant acquires enhanced immunity against future versions of the Omicron, including the currently circulating JN.1, according to a study. A team of South Korean scientists from the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) announced that the memory T cells that form during the Omicron breakthrough infection respond to subsequent strains of the virus, and protect against severe disease from any future Covid variant. “This nding gives us new perspectives in the new era of Covid endemic. It can be understood that in response to constant emergence of new virus variants, our bodies have also adapted to combat the future strains of the virus,” said JUNG Min Kyung, Research Fellow, who led the research. Emerging in late 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant had drastically increased transmissibility in comparison to its predecessors, which quickly allowed it to become the dominant strain in 2022. New strains of Omicron have kept emerging ever since then. Starting with BA.1 and BA2, BA.4/BA.5, BQ.1, XBB strains, and more recently JN.1 strains were among the new strains of the Omicron variant. This has led to widespread breakthrough infection despite vaccination. After becoming infected or vaccinated, the body creates neutralising antibodies and memory T cells against the virus. The neutralising antibody serves to prevent host cells from being infected by the virus. While memory T cells cannot prevent the infection, they can quickly search and destroy infected cells, preventing the viral infection from progressing into a severe disease. To nd out the changes that occur in our body’s immune system after suffering from post-vaccination breakthrough infection, the team focused on the memory T cells that formed after the Omicron infection. The previous studies on the Omicron variant have mostly focused on vaccine efficacy or neutralising antibodies, and the research related to memory T cells has been comparatively lacking. The team selected patients who suffered and recovered from BA.2 Omicron breakthrough infection in early 2022 and conducted studies on their memory T cells, specically in their ability to respond to various Omicron variants such as BA.2, BA.4/BA/5, and others. Their immune cells were separated from the peripheral blood of the subjects, and the memory T cells’ cytokine production and antiviral activities in response to various spike proteins from different variants were measured. The results, published in Science Immunology, showed that the memory T cells from these patients showed heightened response against not only the BA.2 strain but the later BA.4 and BA.5 strains of Omicron as well. By su|ering from breakthrough infection, these patients’ immune system was strengthened to combat future strains of the same virus. The research team also discovered the specic part of the spike protein which is the primary cause of the observed enhancement in the memory T cells. These results show that once a person undergoes breakthrough infection by the Omicron infection, it is unlikely for them to ever suffer severe Covid-19 symptoms from the future emerging variants,

COVID drugs more often given to Medicare patients who least need them, study suggests - A greater proportion of nonhospitalized Medicare enrollees infected with COVID-19 but at low risk for severe disease received drugs to combat the disease than those at higher risk in 2022, weakening their public health benefit, finds an observational study published today in JAMA Health Forum. A Harvard-led research team examined claims data to determine rates of prescriptions for the oral antiviralsnirmatrelvir (Paxlovid) and molnupiravir, the intravenous (IV) antiviral remdesivir via outpatient infusion, and the outpatient IV monoclonal antibodies bamlanivimab/etesevimab, casirivimab/imdevimab, sotrovimab, and bebtelovimab. The team also performed a simulation reallocating antiviral treatment, especially with nirmatrelvir, to infected Medicare patients at high risk for severe illness and evaluated potential COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.A total of 6.0% of 20 million Medicare beneficiaries received outpatient COVID-19 treatment. Among those with a COVID-19 diagnosis, 23.0% received medication within 10 days before or after diagnosis. And among those receiving medication, 40.5% of patients with oral prescriptions and 1.5% of those with IV doses had no COVID-19 diagnosis claim within 10 days of treatment.White patients were more likely to receive therapy without a COVID-19 diagnosis than their Black peers (40.7% and 32.0%, respectively).Patients at higher risk for severe illness received less outpatient treatment. For example, 6.4% of those aged 65 to 69 years received treatment, compared with 4.9% of those 90 years and older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.64). Among nursing home residents, prescribing rates were 4.2%, compared with 6.2% among those living in the community (aOR, 0.78). Differences by race and rural/urban residence were substantial.For Black patients, 3.0% received therapy, compared with 6.4% of White patients (aOR, 0.56), and 4.3% of Hispanic patients received medication (aOR compared with White patients, 0.86). Rural residents were less likely to receive medication than those in urban areas (5.2% and 6.3%, respectively; aOR, 0.86).Unadjusted treatment rates were lower for those with 10 or more underlying medical conditions, compared with 6 to 9 (6.1% and 6.6%, respectively), although the adjusted odds of treatment rose with increasing numbers of conditions. Beneficiaries who used telehealth services were given treatment more often than those who did not (7.5% and 5.5%, respectively).These trends were similar among patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis, among the 26% of patients with no vaccination claims, in those aged 65 years and older, and in Medicare Advantage enrollees who received oral medication. The differences couldn't be attributed to different COVID-19 testing rates, outpatient visits, or contraindications to therapy.Of patients in the highest-risk quintile (the 20% at most risk), 2.6% were hospitalized for COVID-19, and 4.9% were given outpatient treatment, compared with 0.2% and 7.5%, respectively, in the lowest risk quintile.Groups given outpatient treatment less often weren't less likely to test or seek healthcare for COVID-19. For example, low-income patients were less likely to receive COVID-19 medication than those with higher incomes (3.3% and 6.8%, respectively) but were more likely to seek care (11.7% and 10.4%, respectively) or have a testing claim (35.0% and 32.2%, respectively).The simulation estimated that reallocating COVID-19 treatment based on risk for severe infection would have prevented 16,503 COVID-related deaths (16.3%) in the sample, almost entirely because of the benefit to patients at highest risk.

At-risk patients often not offered antivirals for COVID-19, analysis shows -Four out of five Veterans Affairs (VA) patients who had mild COVID-19 but had compromised immune systems were not offered the use of COVID antivirals, according to a study today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.The study, though small, illustrates the reluctance of providers to prescribe antivirals, including Paxlovid, to patients who present with mild illness, but are at risk of progressing to severe disease.Currently in the United States, anyone age 12 and older at risk for severe progression of disease is eligible for antiviral use at the first sign of a COVID-19 diagnosis. The antiviral drugs nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) and remdesivir (Veklury) are approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and molnupiravir (Lagevrio) is authorized for emergency use.When used within 5 days of symptom development, antivirals can reduce the severity and duration of the disease. But currently reported antiviral use among the general adult population has been 35% or less. In today's study, VA researchers reviewed 110 VA patients who were at risk for severe COVID-19 (mostly due to organ transplantation or hematologic malignancies) but did not receive an antiviral. All patients were seen between from 1, 2022 (when effective oral antivirals became widely available to treat outpatients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19) through September 30, 2022.Among the patients, all of whom were vaccinated against COVID-19, 22 (20.0%) were offered treatment but declined, and 88 (80.0%) were not offered treatment.Of those not offered antiviral treatment, provider reasons included symptom duration of more than 5 days (22.7%), concern about possible drug interactions (5.7%), or absence of symptoms (22.7%). For almost one half (43 of 88; 48.9%) of these patients, no reason for not offering antivirals was given other than mild symptoms. No providers mentioned Paxlovid rebound—which might not be caused by the drug at all—as a reason to not prescribe."These findings suggest that education of patients, providers, and medical personnel tasked with follow-up calls, combined with advance planning in the event of a positive test result, might improve the rate of recommended antiviral medication use to prevent severe COVID-19–associated illness, including death," the authors concluded.

Here's why some high-risk patients aren't getting drugs to combat COVID - As the toll from the COVID-19 pandemic continued to mount, antiviral medications such as Paxlovid were hailed by health officials as an important way to reduce the risk of severe illness or death. Yet the drugs have remained underused, studies have found. In Boston, a group of researchers wanted to know why—and what could be done about it. Their new findings, published Thursday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, suggest that some vulnerable patients were not offered the prescription medicines at all, and that doctors need more education to make sure the drugs get to patients who could benefit. Researchers from the VA Boston Cooperative Studies Program delved into records from the Veterans Health Administration to look more closely at what happened to high-risk patients who never got Paxlovid, remdesivir or molnupiravir. They focused on 110 patients who received organ transplants or had other medical conditions such as chronic lymphocytic leukemia that were likely to leave them immunocompromised and thus at greater risk from COVID-19 despite being vaccinated. Their analysis in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report found that 20% of those patients turned down the drugs when they were offered. But the remaining 80% of patients were never offered such treatment in the first place. In some cases, medical providers decided not to give patients the COVID-19 drugs because they were worried about how they could interact with other medications patients were already taking, including cholesterol-lowering statins and a drug used to reduce the risk that a transplanted organ would be rejected. In other cases, doctors demurred because their patients had experienced COVID-19 symptoms for more than five days beforehand, beyond the recommended window for getting Paxlovid. Despite public alarm about "Paxlovid rebound," in which symptoms recur after treatment, none of the medical records noted it as a reason not to give the drug, the study found. But in almost half of the cases in which people weren't offered the medication, no reason was given by medical providers other than patients having mild symptoms, the researchers found.

Does Paxlovid prevent long COVID? Maybe, experts suggest - As the immediate threat of the COVID-19 pandemic has waned recently, a more complex legacy has emerged: Long COVID, or persistent symptoms following an acute infection, affects as many as 18 millionAmericans.Long-COVID patients experience symptoms ranging from mild to debilitating, and they commonly include brain fog, fatigue, shortness of breath. With many unknowns regarding testing, treatment, or ways to prevent or predict the condition, researchers and clinicians have been exploring what medical agents, if any, can help reduce or limit post-COVID symptoms.Last spring, some promising research out of the Veterans Affairs system showed that Paxlovid, the Pfizer-produced COVID antiviral drug approved for use in the United States to prevent serious complications from infection in at-risk populations, could moderately reduce the risk of long COVID if given during the acute infection. But now, a group out of University of California–San Francisco (UCSF), has found the opposite: The antiviral not only does not prevent long COVID from developing, if used it leads to more rebounding infections."Clearly, the jury is still out," said Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, chief of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System. "Discordant results are an opportunity to learn why something works here, but not there." Al-Aly led the team of researchers who published in JAMA Internal Medicine last March the study showing Paxlovid was tied to a 26% lower risk of developing long COVID over a 6-month period. The study also showed Paxlovid might decrease the risk of death by 47% and the risk of hospitalization by 24%.The study was based on prescription records of US Department of Veterans Affairs enrollees in 2022.More recent studies suggest Al-Aly’s findings were a mildly promising signal. In October 2023, researchers from the National Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) found Paxlovid had a small absolute risk reduction of 2.7% in reducing long COVID in Medicare enrollees diagnosed as having COVID-19.Al-Aly said the recent UCSF group's work, which is based on survey results, is interesting but does not provide the solid footing of a randomized control trial (RCT), the gold standard needed to see if Paxlovid does indeed reduce long COVID. "We are trying to answer causal question with observational data, it’s not easy to do," said Matthew Durstenfeld, MD, a cardiologist and UCSF assistant professor of medicine. Durstenfeld was the lead author of the study showing Paxlovid had no effect in preventing long COVID. Dursetnfeld’s study appeared earlier this month in the Journal of Medical Virology. In the UCSF study, an online cohort of participants who were vaccinated at the time of infection reported either taking or not taking Paxlovid, and were surveyed 4 to 5 months after infection to see if using the antiviral was associated with a lower risk of long COVD. None of the patients were hospitalized for their initial infections. "We found about 16% of the people who took Paxlovid had long COVID," said Dursetnfeld. "It was 14% for the group that didn't take Paxlovid." Dursetnfeld said his study looked only at people who were experiencing their first COVID-19 infection, and thus they could not have previously had long COVID. "Paxlovid looks good if you count people in control group who already have long COVID," he explained. He said he was surprised by the findings. After all, the idea of Paxlovid lessening the risk of long COVID makes sense: There has been strong evidence that one of the causes of long COVID may be persistent viral replication in patients, and the antiviral lowers viral counts and suppresses viral replication. "Unfortunately we didn't find that," said Dursetnfeld, "Paxlovid isn't part of the toolkit for preventing long COVID."

Email Reveals Why CDC Didn’t Issue Alert On COVID Vaccines And Myocarditis - The nation’s top public health agency did not send an alert on COVID-19 vaccines and heart inflammation because officials were concerned they would cause panic, according to an email obtained by The Epoch Times.The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2021 drafted an alert for heart inflammation, or myocarditis, and the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines. Officials prepared to release it to the public, taking steps including having the agency’s director review the language, internal documents show.The alert would have been sent through the CDC’s Health Alert System (HAN) network, which goes to state and local officials, as well as doctors, across the country.The alert was never sent.In the May 25, 2021, email, exclusively obtained by The Epoch Times, a CDC official revealed why some officials were against sending the alert.“The pros and cons of an official HAN are what the main discussion are right now,” Dr. Sara Oliver, the official, wrote in the missive. “I think it’s likely to be a HAN since that is CDC’s primary method of communications to clinicians and public health departments, but people don’t want to appear alarmist either.”Dr. Oliver was corresponding with an employee of either Pfizer or Moderna. The employee’s name and email were redacted in the copy obtained by The Epoch Times.Dr. Oliver did not respond to a request for comment. Asked about the email, the CDC did not address Dr. Oliver’s statement.The “CDC’s apparent decision to not immediately issue a formal alert to clinicians warning them about the increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in vaccinated individuals is not only inexcusable, it’s malpractice,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the top Republican on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, told The Epoch Times in an email. “CDC should never prioritize its own public perception over the public’s health, and those who made the decision to do so must be held fully accountable,” he added.

Maternal COVID infection boosts respiratory distress risk in full-term babies Full-term babies of mothers infected with COVID-19 during pregnancy had triple the risk of experiencing respiratory distress (RD) compared to those who weren't exposed to the virus before they were born, researchers from the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) reported today.Another key finding was that the risk of RD in babies was lower in mothers who had received at least one COVID vaccine dose.The group also conducted another arm of the study to look for clues about why the babies exposed to the virus were more likely to have RD, even though they themselves weren't infected with the virus. They found inflammatory markers that suggest a hyperimmune response and some hints of impaired respiratory function. Their findings appear today inNature Communications.COVID-19 infection during pregnancy already comes with well-known risks of premature birth, stillbirth, and severe complications for pregnant women. Those threats have underscored recommendations that pregnant women receive the COVID vaccine to protect both themselves and their babies.The study included 221 pregnant women with COVID and 227 exposed babies from the UCLA Medical Center system. The analysis included 199 infants born between April 2020 and August 2022. Most COVID infections occurred in winter 2020, when the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain circulated.In total, 34 babies experienced RD after they were born. The most common diagnoses were respiratory distress syndrome, followed by transient tachypnea (abnormally rapid breathing) and other infections. No deaths were reported.For comparison, the group noted that the overall incidence of RD in unexposed babies ranges from 5.2% to 6.4%. For the exposed infants in the study, the incidence of RD was unusually high, at 17%. The odds ratio of RD in babies born to unvaccinated mothers, compared to vaccinated moms, was 3.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 10.21). Researchers also saw RD crop up at later gestational ages than usually seen—a time when newborns presumably have more mature lung development.Of the 221 mothers, 68% were unvaccinated prior to their infection. Of unvaccinated moms, 16% had severe or critical disease, which was higher than the 4% in the vaccinated group. Of the babies with RD, 5 (16%) were born to vaccinated mothers, compared to 63 (41%) without the breathing disorder, suggesting a protective effect from the vaccine.

No neurodevelopmental issues found in babies of COVID-vaccinated moms - In first results from a study that tracked neurodevelopmental differences in babies born to mothers who were vaccinated against COVID-19, researchers found no differences at the 12- and 18-month marks compared to babies born to unvaccinated moms.The team, from the University of California, San Fransisco, published its findings yesterday in JAMA Pediatrics. Against the backdrop of vaccine hesitancy among pregnant women and even in some of their healthcare providers, the researchers said their goal was to address unanswered questions about the longer-term impacts of COVID vaccination on developmental outcomes. In the prospective cohort study, the researchers enrolled women who were less than 10 weeks pregnant and their babies in the online study from May 2020 to August 2021, including participants from all 50 states. Of those, 89.3% were White. Of 2,487 women enrolled in the study, 68% said they were vaccinated, of whom 76% reported receiving an mRNA vaccine.Researchers collected demographic information about the mothers, then tracked babies' neurodevelopment remotely using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire that was completed by the mothers when the children were 12 or 18 months old. The group's analysis includes 2,261 babies who were 12 months old and 1,920 who were 18 months old. Follow-up of the children is ongoing.The validated screening tool is designed to examine five areas, including communication, gross-motor, fine-motor, problem solving, and social skills.Crude analysis found that, at 12 months, 30.6% of infants exposed to the vaccine while mothers were pregnant had an abnormal screening result, compared to 28.2% of unexposed infants. At 18 months, the percentages were 20.1% and 23.2%, respectively.When investigators adjusted for maternal age, race, ethnicity, education, income, maternal depression, and anxiety, however, they found no difference in abnormal neurodevelopmental screening results. Adjusting for preterm birth and infant gender also had no impact on the results.

Childhood obesity rates soared in UK during COVID-19 -- Yesterday in PLOS One researchers from the University of Southampton showed that obesity rates for British preschoolers in 2020 and 2021 skyrocketed more than 45% compared to 2019 and 2020. The authors said this is the largest single-year increase in overweight and obesity prevalence in recent UK history, and will result in an additional £800 million ($1 billion US) in healthcare costs for now-overweight children who will likely suffer chronic diseases. The study was based on publicly available annual body mass index (BMI) data from 2006 through 2022. Two age-groups were studied, kids ages 4 to 6 years old and 10 to 11. Obesity prevalence among children ages 4 to 5 years increased by 45% during the first year of the pandemic; from 9.9% in 2019 to 2020 to 14.4% in 2020 to 2021. The prevalence then decreased to 10.1% in 2021 and 2022, returning to the pre-pandemic trend, the authors said. While weight for children ages 4 and 5 rebounded to healthy BMIs by 2022, obesity in children ages 10 to 11 persisted and was 4 percentage points higher than expected, representing almost 56,000 additional children who were now clinically overweight. Children in both age-groups who were from low-income homes were more likely to have higher BMI. There was no difference, however, among BMI rates across different ethnic groups.

Review reveals poor outcomes for diabetes patients amid COVID-19 pandemic -Rates of death, vision loss, and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admissions among diabetes patients spiked during the pandemic, finds a systematic review of 138 studies from around the world.Researchers from the University of Massachusetts (UMass) and the University of Leicester in England analyzed data from 138 studies on the effects of COVID-related disruptions on the clinical outcomes of diabetes patients published from January 2020 to June 2023. The studies, which included more than 1 million diabetes patients, compared prepandemic with pandemic periods.The studies were from North America (39 studies), Western Europe (39), Asia (17), Eastern Europe (14), South America (4), Egypt (1), Australia (1), and multiple regions (33). The review is published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.The six studies that examined all-cause death and the 13 on diabetes-related death showed consistent increases in both, with six finding increases in vision loss. Adult and mixed samples indicated a rise in the frequency or severity of diabetic ketoacidosis (a potentially life-threatening complication)—some cases due to new-onset diabetes—among children and adolescents but not adults (69 studies). Data from 35 studies suggested a decline in adult hospitalization but higher rates of diabetes-related PICU admissions. Rates of new-onset type 1 diabetes were higher than expected, and children with this type of disease were much sicker during than before the pandemic. Pandemic-related effects were most evident in females, younger people, and racial minority groups. "Further studies are needed to investigate the longer-term impact of the pandemic … on potential differential impacts, which risk further exacerbating existing inequalities within people with diabetes," the authors wrote.In a UMass press release, co-lead author Jamie Hartmann-Boyce, DPhil, assistant professor of health policy at UMass, said "The data on pediatric ICU admissions and pediatric diabetes ketoacidosis is probably the most striking thing that comes out of this review," she said. "It was very consistent across countries, and a pediatric ICU admission is a major event for kids and their families."

Chinese study suggests COVID temporarily affects sperm quality A new small study of 85 men in China shows COVID-19 infections do impact semen quality, but only temporarily. The study is published inVirology Journal. The study, conducted between June 2022 and July 2023 at the Guilin People’s Hospital, included 85 men who were undergoing infertility investigations. None of the men had severe COVID-19 infections or required hospitalization. Semen samples were collected 6 months before COVID-19 infection, within 3 months after COVID-19 infection, and 3 to 6 months after COVID-19 recovery. Thirty-four patients underwent semen analysis within 3 months after COVID-19 infection and within 6 months before COVID-19 infection.Both sperm concentration and total sperm number were significantly lower 3 months after infections, but no change was seen in semen volume, total motility, progressive motility, and normal morphology of sperm. In 64 patients who underwent semen analysis within 3 months after COVID-19 infection and 3 to 6 months after COVID-19 recovery, there was a significant increase in sperm concentration, total sperm number, progressive motility, and normal morphology during the recovery period. "This confirms, at least in line with previous research, that infection is indeed an important factor affecting sperm quality, as there is consistency between the decrease in sperm concentration and total sperm count after infection and the subsequent recovery in sperm concentration," the authors wrote. The authors said fever, oxidative stress, and cell damage could all be behind the dip in semen quality.

Study: Vaccinated patients have lower risk of long COVID - Today researchers from the University of Michigan published inOpen Forum Infectious Diseases more evidence that being vaccinated against COVID-19 significantly reduces the risk of developing long COVID.The findings come from the Immunity Associated with SARS-CoV-2 (IASO) study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of employees and students of the University of Michigan which began in October of 2020. Participants completed weekly symptom and respiratory illness testing surveys.In the present study, 3,375 people participated in IASO from October 2020 to December 2022, and 81% of those eligible completed a long COVID survey.At 90-days post-infection, 8% of vaccinated cases were still reporting symptoms, compared with 27% of unvaccinated cases. Any symptoms were 37% and 69% less common for vaccinated cases at 30- and 90-days post-infection (risk ratio [RR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 0.76 and RR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.42), respectively, the authors wrote. Experiencing five more symptoms at 30- and 90-days post-infection was 63% and 66% less common for vaccinated participants. The effect of vaccination was stronger when the researchers looked at post-Omicron cases. Among vaccinated Omicron cases, only 6% reported symptoms at 90 days, compared with18% of vaccinated pre-Omicron variant cases."When we compared infections in vaccinated individuals in the Omicron era to the pre-Omicron era we found a reduction in long COVID prevalence and severity for Omicron. Thus, the prevalence of long COVID in studies conducted prior to the introduction of Omicron likely overestimate the rates from new infections that would be seen in those populations currently," the authors wrote.In search of a pan-coronavirus vaccine: next-generation vaccine design and immune mechanisms - Abstract: Members of the coronaviridae family are endemic to human populations and have caused several epidemics and pandemics in recent history. In this review, we will discuss the feasibility of and progress toward the ultimate goal of creating a pan-coronavirus vaccine that can protect against infection and disease by all members of the coronavirus family. We will detail the unmet clinical need associated with the continued transmission of SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV and the four seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43, NL63, HKU1 and 229E) in humans and the potential for future zoonotic coronaviruses. We will highlight how first-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and natural history studies have greatly increased our understanding of effective antiviral immunity to coronaviruses and have informed next-generation vaccine design. We will then consider the ideal properties of a pan-coronavirus vaccine and propose a blueprint for the type of immunity that may offer cross-protection. Finally, we will describe a subset of the diverse technologies and novel approaches being pursued with the goal of developing broadly or universally protective vaccines for coronaviruses. Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the significant effect that emerging viral infections can have on global health. Simultaneously, the pandemic has established the positive impact that effective vaccine strategies can have on mitigating the global burden of disease and highlighted the importance of understanding the immune mechanisms underpinning protective vaccines.In the three and a half years since the identification of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), ~770 million (M) infections and ~7 M related deaths have been reported [1]; furthermore, these data are likely gross underestimates of the true global impact of the virus. The panel of 18 World Health Organization (WHO)-licensed vaccines changed the course of the pandemic, and these vaccines are estimated to have prevented between 14 and 20 M deaths in their first year alone [2]. Despite the WHO declaring that COVID-19 was no longer a global emergency as of May 2023, there is still a significant unmet clinical need and global economic cost associated with currently circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2. Accordingly, there is a strong consensus in the scientific community regarding the need to develop more effective next-generation vaccines [3, 4].The COVID-19 pandemic has also renewed interest in developing pan-family or universal vaccines—i.e., vaccines that could offer broad protection against all members of a viral family. The key rationale for a universal vaccine approach is the continued burden of disease associated with endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs), the unpredictability of future SARS-CoV-2 variants, and the potential for zoonotic spill-over events. Since three of the major pandemics in the past two decades have been caused by coronaviruses, the demand for a proactive approach to coronavirus vaccines is especially warranted.In this review, we will first outline the need for a pan-coronavirus vaccine and then focus on knowledge derived fromcross-reactive and heterosubtypic immunity in SARS-CoV-2 infection. We will discuss how this knowledge has shed more light on the feasibility of developing a pan-coronavirus vaccine. Finally, we will provide an update on current progress regarding the use of repurposed or novel approaches for next-generation coronavirus vaccines.A pan-coronavirus vaccine is a vaccine that is effective at preventing severe disease and/or infection caused by all viruses of the coronavirus family (Fig. 1). In contrast, the current widely employed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines adopt a narrow-spectrum approach – they deliver spike (S) glycoproteins that vary antigenically between strains, resulting in immune protection that is predominantly species-specific or even variant-specific [5].

Strong links found between long COVID and myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome -- People suffering from long COVID or myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) could benefit from a coordinated treatment strategy, a new University of Otago study has found.The pilot study, published in Scientific Reports, has confirmed what researchers have suspected for some time: the two conditions are closely related.Senior author Emeritus Professor Warren Tate says the research—the first comparative molecular study of the immune cell proteins of both conditions—"strongly affirms" the link between the two."This means information from study of the pathophysiology of ME/CFS and therapeutic opportunities that have slowly accumulated over the last 30 years can be transferred to understanding and treating the now estimated 100 million cases of long COVID world-wide."But equally important, the immense resources put into long COVID research currently in the rich nations, while yet to produce major breakthroughs, can also benefit the many millions of 'hidden' ME/CFS patients whose numbers have increased steadily over time in the absence of their recovery from the illness."Study results showed the immune system activity of six long COVID patients one year after a COVID-19 infection was dramatically different from five healthy controlled-group study participants, reflecting a chronic dysfunctional state.Data gathered from those patients was found to be similar to data gathered from a group of nine diagnosed ME/CFS patients, who had suffered the condition for 16 years on average.The study reinforces the researchers' previously published model in Frontiers of Neurologyto explain the complex dysfunctional physiology for both ME/CFS and long COVID: In susceptible people (determined by their health history and genetic background), the normal transitory immune/inflammatory response of the peripheral nervous system to infection or stress does not resolve quickly as in most people. Instead, it becomes chronic and leads to a cascade effect involving the brain, immune system and central nervous system, which in turn results in multiple neurological symptoms and poor brain regulation of body physiology.Emeritus Professor Tate says long COVID from the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus is a specific example of ME/CFS, that has occurred in susceptible people from endemic viruses like glandular fever, and from small historical viral outbreaks geographically contained like the SARS-CoV-1 virus outbreak in 2003."It highlights within our community there are significant numbers of people debilitated now with disrupted immune systems, dysfunctional energy production, and disturbed brain regulation of their overall physiology that severely disrupts their family lives, ability to work and participate in their communities long-term, and that these people need support from all levels of society."

Updated WHO COVID prevention guidance may endanger rather than protect, some experts say - The World Health Organization's (WHO's) newly updated COVID-19 prevention and control guidelines purport to protect healthcare workers, patients, and the community, but some experts say they may encourage risky behavior by propagating long-disproven ideas about how viruses spread."I think they put healthcare workers and patients and the community at significant risk," said Lisa Brosseau, ScD, CIH, an expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases and a CIDRAP research consultant. One of the main problems, said Raina Macintyre, MBBS, PhD, professor and head of the biosecurity program at the Kirby Institute in Sydney, Australia, is that the document doesn't incorporate many of the lessons learned during the pandemic—such as the major role of COVID-19 spread among people with no symptoms."The guidelines suggest using symptoms to screen people," she said via email. "This is seen in health guidelines in many countries—emphasis on symptoms ('wear a mask if you feel unwell'), when we know a substantial proportion of transmission is asymptomatic, which is a major rationale for universal masking in high-transmission settings."Similarly, David Michaels, PhD, MPH, an epidemiologist and professor at George Washington University School of Public Health and a former administrator at the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), said the guidelines don't directly address the modes of COVID-19 transmission."I was very disappointed," he told CIDRAP News, referring to the WHO's adherence to what he calls "droplet dogma,'" or the misguided belief that SARS-CoV-2 spreads mainly through droplets rather than aerosols. "It hasn't fully recognized the concept that this novel coronavirus is airborne. Nor does the document fully recognize that N95 respirators offer better protection against the virus than medical, or surgical, masks. Rather, it says the Guideline Development Group (GDG) "considered the evidence for particular respirators versus medical masks and agreed that the strength of this evidence was insufficient to recommend one mask over another except in some specific conditions."

So much for Juno! Covid cases are still falling despite gloomy warnings that January wave would be biggest EVER because of pesky new variant | Daily Mail Online --Warnings of carnage triggered by a pesky new Covid variant appear to have been over-hyped. New surveillance figures show infection rates have halved since peaking ahead of Christmas. Just one in 43 people across England were estimated to be carrying the virus at any point last week. At the time, experts — and even one Government adviser — stoked fears that Juno could send cases spiralling to an all-time high. Despite the downturn, health chiefs have warned that Covid could still spark fresh chaos in the weeks ahead. UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) statistics also suggest flu is on the rise, which means the ailing NHS faces a double whammy during its busiest period of year. Professor Steven Riley, director general for data and surveillance at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said the decline was 'welcome'. However, he added: 'It is important to recognise that this doesn't mean that the risk of becoming ill with Covid has gone away. 'In previous years, we have sometimes seen a decline in early January followed by an increase over the next few weeks. 'So it remains important that we continue to do what we can to reduce transmission.' The UKHSA and Office for National Statistics (ONS) monitor Covid prevalence rates by testing a representative sample of around 30,000 every week. Latest results show 2.3 per cent of people across England were infected on January 10, down from 2.8 per cent one week earlier. Rates shot up to 4.5 per cent just before Christmas. Covid was most rife in the South West, where 3 per cent of people were infected, it was estimated. Virus levels declined among all age groups but remained highest among 35 to 44-year-olds. The downturn follows the emergence of Omicron sub-variant Juno, scientifically known as JN.1, which now makes up two-thirds of all cases. It first started spreading in the UK in October and was spotted by routine testing. The variant was flagged because it contained a rogue mutation in the spike protein known to help the virus dodge the body's internal defences. Health experts say this makes it easier for the virus to infect the nose and throat compared to other circulating variants, which the immune system finds easier to fight off due to vaccination and previous infection. There is no evidence to suggest that Juno, as it has since been nicknamed, is more dangerous than previous strains.

Latest global COVID snapshot shows rising cases, drop in deaths --Over the past month, global COVID-19 cases rose slightly, with a steady drop in deaths from the virus, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latest monthly update.However, the group cautioned about interpreting the data, given that less than half of countries reported their COVID metrics during the latest reporting period, which covers December 11, 2023, to January 7."According to estimates obtained from wastewater surveillance, clinical detection of cases underestimates the real burden from 2 to 19-fold," the WHO said.In the final week of 2023, the JN.1 variant made up 65.5% of sequences, up sharply from 24.8% the month before. In its analysis of regional trends, the WHO said cases rose in two regions. Numbers were up sharply in the South East Asia region, with a more modest increase in the Western Pacific region. In South East Asia, countries reporting some of the highest increases were India and Indonesia. JN.1, part of the BA.2.86 family, became dominant in India in the first week of January. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific region, Malaysia and Singapore reported the biggest case rises. Information on Malaysia's health ministry website show that cases in the current wave peaked just before Christmas and are declining steadily. Singapore's health ministry data show a similar pattern. Deaths declined or remained stable across five of WHO's regions, with only South East Asia reporting a rise, which was sharp. The region's highest numbers were from India, Indonesia, and Thailand. The WHO closely monitors hospitalizations and intensive care unit (ICU) indicators to look for any changes in illness severity. Very few countries regularly report their hospitalizations and ICU admissions for COVID. Of 22 countries that do, 36% saw a 20% or more rise in hospitalizations over the past month, which included Indonesia, Malta, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Greece, Singapore, the United States, and Ireland.And of 18 countries regularly reporting ICU data, 44% reflected a rise of 20% or more in admissions for COVID. They include Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Estonia, Ireland, the Netherlands, Greece, and the Czech Republic.

Massive wave of COVID infections throughout Europe - The coronavirus pandemic is spreading unchecked across Europe, causing rising death rates and pushing hospitals to their limits. On January 10, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated: “In December, almost 10,000 deaths from COVID-19 were reported to WHO, and the number of hospital admissions increased by 42 percent compared to November with the number of ICU admissions at 62 percent. However, the trends [on mortality] are based on data from fewer than 50 countries, mainly in Europe and the Americas. It is certain that there is also an increase in other countries that is not being reported.” The current wave is being driven primarily by the JN.1 (Juno) variant. It is an offshoot of BA.2.86 (Pirola). Pirola has more than 20 mutations on its spike protein, Juno has just one more. However, this makes the variant significantly more immune-resistant. The British Office for National Statistics also recently reported that, in addition to the normal symptoms of a coronavirus infection, Juno can also cause sleep problems and anxiety. According to the survey by British scientists, 10.8 percent of those infected experienced sleep problems and 10.5 percent reported anxiety disorders. The variant is already occurring in many European countries, including Iceland, Portugal, Spain, France, Germany and the Netherlands. A number of countries in Central and Eastern Europe also reported a significant increase in respiratory illnesses at the end of last year. In Spain and Italy, the rising numbers of patients have pushed hospitals to their limits. The COVID wave also coincides with rising flu and RSV infections across Europe. In the UK, Juno is causing new record highs. At the end of October, the JN.1 share was still at 1 percent, in mid-November it was at 5 percent, but by Christmas had risen to 51.4 percent. Professor Steve Griffin, a virologist at Leeds University, said, “There has clearly been a massive surge in COVID infections in recent weeks. This is undoubtedly due to socialising indoors over the festive period. It is also likely that the return to schools, universities and businesses will increase this even further.” Asked if the UK could set a new record this month, he replied, “Yes, I think we could see something similar to BA2 [the previous record wave].” Data scientist Professor Christina Pagel from University College London also expects infections to rise for another week or two, “equalling” or “even surpassing” the record waves at the beginning of 2020. In Germany, the number of infections reached a record high at the end of the year, with hospitalisation rates on a par with previous waves. Although the wave receded in the first weeks of January, according to data from Fluweb, the incidence rate remains at 500. Almost 8,000 people had to be hospitalised in the first three weeks of the year and 1,316 have already died. The situation in Spain is particularly dramatic. Hospitals have been under increasing pressure since the beginning of the year as a result of a “triple-demic” of COVID-19, influenza A and RSV. In large parts of the country, emergency departments are heavily overloaded due to the high volume of patients. The Universitario La Paz hospital in Madrid, which treats around 500,000 patients, making it one of the largest hospitals in Spain, has had to postpone operations to make room for new patients. Due to the dramatic situation, the Spanish government was forced to reintroduce compulsory masks in healthcare facilities. However, local governments, such as those in the Basque Country, have reacted by taking legal action against the mask requirement. The rising number of deaths from flu and COVID-19 is even putting pressure on funeral services. According to an article in Euro Weekly News, funeral service operators are warning they will struggle to cope with the rising number of deaths by the end of January. Manuel Tejadas, head of the Interfunerarias funeral service chain in Catalonia, said, “We are overwhelmed. I haven’t seen such an increase in deaths since the pandemic.”

Covid Surge Prompts Return of Scanners, Calls for Masks in Asian Cities - -- Governments across Southeast Asia are bringing back measures to limit a rapid resurgence of respiratory infections such as Covid-19, including installing temperature scanners at airports and encouraging people to wear masks again. The goal is to slow the spread of a variety of germs, as a confluence of Covid, flu and other respiratory pathogens may set off wider outbreaks that ultimately stretch healthcare systems. But it can be a fraught process, with the public highly attuned to the risk of draconian measures, which were put in place early in Asia at the start of the pandemic in 2020 and which lasted for much longer than in other parts of the world, coming back. Signs of that tension emerged earlier this week when Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong took to Facebook to say there had been “misinformation circulating on various networks that the government is looking to reinstate a circuit breaker.” “These are all falsehoods,” he said. Read: China’s Covid Zero Scars Leave Citizens Fearful of Curbs Covid cases on the island nation, or at least the ones that have been reported, jumped to 32,035 in the week ended Dec. 2 from just over 22,000 the previous week, according to Singapore’s health ministry. “The increase in cases could be due to a number of factors, including waning population immunity and increased travel and community interactions during the year-end travel and festive season,” the Ministry of Health said in a statement. Cases involving the JN.1 variant, a sublineage of BA.2.86, currently account for around 60% of Covid cases in Singapore. While Singapore authorities said there’s no indication that the BA.2.86 or JN.1 variants are more transmissible or cause more severe disease, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the continued emergence of JN.1 suggests that it’s either more transmissible or better at evading immune systems. However, at this time, “there is no evidence that JN.1 presents an increased risk to public health relative to other currently circulating variants,” the CDC said in a Dec. 8 statement. Officials in Indonesia meanwhile have reinstalled thermal scanners at some border check points, the Straits Times newspaper reported Wednesday. They include Jakarta’s main international airport and the Batam ferry terminal. Indonesia’s health ministry has also urged Indonesians to postpone traveling to areas that are reporting a spike in Covid-19 cases, “complete their two-dose vaccination, wear masks and wash their hands and stay home should they fall sick.” In Malaysia, Covid cases have almost doubled in a week, increasing to 6,796 in the week ended Dec. 2 from 3,626 the previous week. Authorities in Malaysia have said the situation is under control and isn’t burdening healthcare facilities.

COVID vaccine inhaled through the mouth launched in China - China announced Wednesday that it has started giving its citizens a COVID booster that can be inhaled through the mouth. The oral vaccine was distributed in Shanghai. A video appeared on Chinese state media, showing people holding a translucent white cup with a short nozzle to their mouths. Text accompanying the video said a person slowly inhaled the mist, held his breath for five seconds and was finished within 20 seconds, the Associated Press reported. Advantages to an inhaled vaccine could include appealing to someone afraid of needles and the concept of priming the area of the body where the virus often enters. Dr. Vineeta Bal, an immunologist in India, said large droplets would prime the mouth and throat. Small droplets would travel further into the body, the AP reported. The vaccine was developed by Cansino Biologics, a Chinese biopharmaceutical company, and is an aerosol version of the company's one-shot adenovirus vaccine. It was approved in September by Chinese regulators after completing trials in China, Hungary, Pakistan, Malaysia, Argentina and Mexico, the AP reported. It was offered as a booster dose for people who had already received initial vaccines, according to an announcement posted on an official city social media account, the AP said. An earlier nasal vaccine, developed in the United States, has been approved by regulators in India, but not distributed yet. It is licensed to Indian vaccine maker Bharat Biotech, the AP reported.

US respiratory virus activity still high but continues to ebb -- Markers for all three of the main respiratory viruses that are making Americans sick declined this week, and new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest that the current flu season has been moderate so far and that people with chronic conditions continue to make up the bulk of flu hospitalizations.In its respiratory virus snapshot, the CDC said activity is still elevated but decreasing across most of the country. More specifically, flu and COVID-19 activity are stabilizing or decreasing, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections continue to decline. Most flu markers, including outpatient visits for flulike illness, declined for the third week in a row, and the percentage of respiratory specimens that were positive for flu held steady, at 14.2%, the CDC said in its latest weekly FluView report today. Influenza A is still dominant, and subtype sampling shows that the 2009 H1N1 virus remains the dominant strain.Southern states are still reporting the highest activity, followed by the Northeast and Southwest.Though deaths from flu trended downward overall, the CDC reported 10 more pediatric flu deaths, raising the season's total to 57. The fatalities were reported between the week ending December 23 and the week ending January 13. Six involved influenza A, and three involved influenza B. Of subtyped influenza A viruses, all were 2009 H1N1. One of the children who died was coinfected with 2009 H1N1 and influenza B.In separate data updates, the CDC today posted a preliminary severity estimate for the current flu season, which it listed as moderate across all age-groups. The CDC included the caveat that the classification could change as the season progresses, and in other updates it said a second peak in activity sometimes occurs after the winter holidays.Also, the CDC today released a deeper dive into flu hospitalizations, which show that people with chronic health conditions continue to make up the lion's share of hospital cases.For adults, the most common underlying conditions for those hospitalized for flu were high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, metabolic disease, and obesity. For children, the most common chronic conditions for asthma, obesity, and neurologic disease. However, 31.1% of children hospitalized for flu had no known underlying health conditions.

Global flu activity slows -- Though flu is still rising in some Northern Hemisphere countries, the overall global trend declined as 2023 ended and into the first week of the new year, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latest update. Activity increased in Europe and Central Asia, along with sharp rises in hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions. Flu activity also rose in parts of North Africa, except in Egypt. Central America and the Caribbean also reported further rises in flu detections. Illness activity remained elevated in North America, mainly due to the 2009 H1N1 strain. Though flu activity remained elevated in East Asia, activity showed an overall decline owing to decreased detections in China and South Korea. Hong Kong and Mongolia, however, reported increasing trends. Southeast Asia's flu activity is still elevated, mainly due to the H3N2 strain. Flu activity declined on the Arabian Peninsula, as well as in South Asia. Elsewhere, detections declined in South America's tropical regions, except for Colombia and French Guiana. Little flu activity was reported in South America's temperate countries, except for Chile. Of respiratory samples that tested positive for flu at national flu labs during the reporting period, 84.2% were influenza A. And of subtyped influenza A viruses, 73% were H3N2.

Measles activity expands rapidly in Europe, Kazakhstan worst affected - Measles activity is expanding rapidly across Europe, with Kazakhstan the hardest-hit country, the World Health Organization (WHO) European regional office said today, warning that large numbers of susceptible children who missed doses of measles-containing vaccine during the COVID-19 pandemic is fueling the outbreaks.Today's statement follows the group's warning last monthabout an alarming rise in measles cases in the WHO European region (which includes parts of Asia), reflecting a more than 30-fold rise in 2023 compared to 2022. WHO Europe said more than 42,200 cases from 41 countries were reported for 2023, of which 13,677 were in Kazakhstan. Of the country's cases, 65% occurred in children younger than 5 years old and 70% occurred in people unvaccinated against measles.Kazakhstan's health minister, Azhar Giniyat, MD, said more than 2,100 children are currently hospitalized for measles, 27 of them in serious condition. The country's response actions include isolating confirmed case-patients, vaccinating contacts, providing supplemental and catch-up vaccination, and initiating educational efforts. The government has bought 1.5 million more doses of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccines.In its latest surveillance update, WHO Europe said other countries are reporting high case numbers. including Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Romania, and Uzbekistan. UK health officials late last week warned that outbreaks in the West Midlands could spread to other towns and cities unless urgent steps are taken to boost MMR vaccine uptake in at-risk areas. In a statement, the Health Security Agency said 216 confirmed cases and 103 probable cases were reported from the West Midlands since October 2023, mostly from Birmingham and mostly involving children younger than 10.

CDC alerts healthcare providers about measles cases The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today urged healthcare providers to be alert for patients who have fever and rashes and have traveled abroad, following reports of 23 measles cases since December 1, 2023. "The increased number of measles importations seen in recent weeks is reflective of a rise in global measles cases and a growing global threat from the disease," the CDC said in an email. Of the 23 cases, 7 were imported cases in international travelers. Also, there have been two outbreaks of more than 5 cases each. One is an outbreak in Philadelphia that led to infections at a hospital and a daycare facility. The other appears to be a family cluster of six cases in Washington's Clark and Wahkiakum counties in the southwestern part of the state. In other recent developments, Virginia officials warned of measles exposures at two international airports,New Jersey confirmed a case in Camden County, and Georgia reported a case in Cobb County involving an unvaccinated resident of the metro Atlanta area who had recently traveled outside the country. In its email alert to clinicians, the CDC said most of the cases involve young children and adolescents who had not received a measles-containing vaccine, even though they were eligible.

Closing toilet lid before flushing doesn't keep viral spray inside, study suggests --Contrary to previous study findings, closing the toilet lid before flushing doesn't stop aerosolized viruses from contaminating bathroom surfaces, scientists from the University of Arizona and Reckitt Benckiser LLC, the company that makes the disinfectant used in the study,report in the American Journal of Infection Control.The researchers added a bacteriophage (virus that targets and kills bacteria) to household and public toilet bowls as a proxy for human intestinal viruses. After they flushed the toilets (with the lid open or closed in case of the household toilets), they measured viral contamination of the toilet and bathroom floor and walls."Research has demonstrated that people with COVID-19, even those who are asymptomatic, excrete severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in fecal matter and other excretions," the researchers wrote. "Viruses contaminating urine and feces can be aerosolized in building restrooms during toilet flushing."The resulting toilet aerosol plumes, they said, can land on surfaces more than 5 feet away.The amount of virus collected from surfaces on the household toilet or floor wasn't significantly different whether the lid was open or closed. The toilet seat had the most contamination, while walls had little. Comparable contamination patterns were noted with the public toilet.In a news release from the Association for Professionals in Infection Control, publisher of the journal, senior author Charles Gerba, PhD, of the University of Arizona, said the results are important for preventing pathogen transmission in healthcare settings. "With results showing that closing toilet lids has no meaningful impact on preventing the spread of viral particles, our study highlights the importance of regular disinfection of toilets to reduce contamination and prevent the spread of viruses," he said.

Antibiotics and reflux drugs, when combined, linked to increased C diff risk -- A population-based study in Sweden found that recent use of antibiotics and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs)—drugs often used to relieve acid reflux—was associated with increased risk ofClostridioides difficile infection (CDI), particularly when used in combination, researchers reported yesterday in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. While the use of antibiotics and PPIs have each been independently associated with increased risk of CDI in several studies, few studies have investigated the potential effects on CDI risk when used in combination. To do so, a team led by researchers at Sweden's Karolinska Institutet compared all 43,152 CDI patients diagnosed in Sweden from 2006 through 2019 with 355,172 matched population controls without CDI, assessing the impact of recent (0 to 30 days) and preceding (31 to 180 days) use of antibiotics and PPI on CDI and recurrent CDI risk. Overall, 63% and 39% of patients with CDI were at some point exposed to antibiotics and PPIs before infection, respectively, compared with 16% and 14% of controls. When recently exposed to both, the odds for CDI were 17.51 (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.48 to 17.53) higher than among those not exposed, while the odds ratio [OR] was 15.37 (95% CI, 14.83 to 15.93) for antibiotics alone and 2.65 (95% CI, 2.54 to 276) for PPI alone. The effect of preceding use was less pronounced, with an OR of 9.13 (95% CI, 8.71 to 9.57) for combined use, 5.42 (95% CI, 5.26 to 5.57) for antibiotics alone, and 2.08 (95% CI, 2.01 to 2.15) for PPI alone. While recent antibiotic use resulted in slightly higher odds of recurrent CDI (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.38), recent PPI use was not associated with CDI recurrence (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.12), and the combined effect was no different than the effect of antibiotics alone. Recent macrolides/lincosamides/streptogramins, other antibacterials including nitroimidazole derivates, non-penicillin beta lactams, and quinolones showed the strongest association with CDI risk and recurrence, particularly for recent use. "Our findings stress the need to reconsider the risk-benefit of both antibiotics and PPIs, which are both still over-prescribed," the study authors wrote.

Tainted melons sicken more across US; investigation closes -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed 105 new Salmonella cases (407 total) in an outbreak linked to tainted cantaloupe but declared its investigation into the outbreak over.The CDC first notified the public of the outbreak on November 17, 2023. Since then, 6 people have died (2 more since the most recent update in December), and 158 people have been hospitalized in an outbreak that spanned 44 states and included a recall of several fruit products, including whole-fruit Malichita brand cantaloupes from Mexico.Eventually, pre-cut melon products were recalled from Kwik Trip, Kroger, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Trader Joe’s, as well.Illnesses started on dates ranging from October 15 to December 25, 2023, the CDC said.."The true number of sick people in this outbreak was likely much higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not have been limited to the states with known illnesses," the CDC said.The median age of those sickened was 60 years, 26% were 5 years or younger, and 47% were 65 years or older. In epidemiologic interviews, 69% of those sickened reported eating cantaloupe in the weeks before illness. Several people have also been sickened in Canada.

Study suggests fungal disease blastomycosis may be more widespread than thought - A rare but potentially fatal fungal disease may be endemic in a wider area than previously thought, according to a paper yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases. The disease, blastomycosis, is caused by the environmental fungus Blastomyces, which is found in moist soil and decaying organic matter. While most people who breath in spores don't get sick, the fungus can cause pneumonia-like symptoms and result in severe illness, with death rates as high as 22%. Based on sporadic case reports and documented outbreaks, blastomycosis has historically been considered endemic in states along the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, the Great Lakes, and the St. Lawrence Seaway, with annual incidence rates in those areas estimated to range from 0.2 to 2.0 cases per 100,000 persons. Public health surveillance is limited to Arkansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But based on recent evidence suggesting that incidence in the Northeast may be greater than known, researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Vermont Department of Health examined data from the state's all-payer health insurance claims to identify blastomycosis diagnoses. They identified 114 patients (median age 55, 59% male) diagnosed with blastomycosis from 2011 through 2020.The mean annual statewide incidence of 1.8 cases/100,00 persons is greater than the mean annual incidences in four of the five states that mandate reporting from 1987 through 2017, and higher than reported in other states (Missouri, Mississippi, and Illinois) located in know endemic areas. "Although differences in surveillance methods and case definitions among states make direct comparisons difficult, Vermont's burden of blastomycosis appears comparable to, and perhaps higher than, most states that have published blastomycosis incidences," the study authors wrote.Of the 114 patients diagnosed, 30 had one or more blastomycosis-related hospitalization, and 4 died from the infection. Nearly half of the case-patients and 65% of hospitalized patients lived in three counties in the north-central part of the state (Lamoille, Orleans, and Washington counties).The authors note that, like hyperendemic regions of Wisconsin, Vermont is rich in acidic spodosol soil, which is thought to support Blastomyces growth. They say clinicians should consider blastomycosis in patients with compatible signs and symptoms, and that expanded surveillance is needed.

Multi-generational toxicant exposures show cumulative, inherited health effects - While exposure to a single substance like DDT has been shown to create inherited disease susceptibility, a recent study in animals found exposure to multiple different toxicants across generations can amplify those health problems. In the study, published in the journal Environmental Epigenetics, an initial generation of pregnant rats was exposed to a common fungicide, then their progeny to jet fuel and the following generation to DDT. When those rats were then bred out to a fifth unexposed generation, the incidence of obesity as well as kidney and prostate diseases in those animals were compounded, rising by as much as 70%. Researchers also found that their epigenetics, molecular processes independent of DNA that influence gene expression, were also greatly altered. "We looked at multiple-generation exposures because these types of things are going on routinely, and previous research has only looked at single exposures," said Michael Skinner, a WSU biology professor and the study's corresponding author. "We found that if multiple generations get different exposures, then eventually there's an amplification or compounded effect on some diseases." The study did show that for other diseases, those associated with the ovaries and the testes, the incidence rose in the first generation of progeny but appeared to plateau with the additional generational exposures. Skinner and his colleagues also conducted epigenetic analysis of each generation of the animals, finding that the toxicant exposures shifted their entire epigenetics dramatically. Along with changes to genes themselves, inherited epigenetics which influence gene expression, are considered to have a significant impact on evolution. "When we made the comparisons with different generations, we did not find a lot of overlap in epigenetics. In other words, every time each generation had a new exposure, it appeared to reprogram the whole epigenome," Skinner said. While the study does not exactly mimic what may have happened to human generations, people in the U.S. have potentially been exposed to these particular toxicants at different times. The authors note a likely sequential exposure over human generations might involve an exposure to DDT which was widely used in the 1950s, then plastics in the 1970s, followed by many modern herbicides still in use today.

Judge bars EPA from enforcing Civil Rights Act provision in Louisiana’s ‘Cancer Alley’ A federal judge on Tuesday night blocked the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) from enforcing Title VI of the Civil Rights Act’s disparate-impact requirements against Louisiana agencies.Judge James D. Cain, a Trump appointee, ruled against residents of a stretch of parishes along the Mississippi River known as “Cancer Alley,” an epicenter of petrochemical manufacturing in the U.S. with disproportionately high rates of cancer. Last year, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R), then the state attorney general, sued the EPA to block a civil rights investigation into potential disparate impacts in the largely Black area of the state, arguing the probe exceeded statutory authority. The agency closed three civil rights complaints weeks later, but in his Tuesday ruling, Cain said existing regulations also constitute federal overreach. In the preliminary injunction, he wrote that the EPA and DOJ are barred from “imposing or enforcing any disparate impact based requirements against the State of Louisiana or any State agency under Title VI.” Cain wrote that “pollution does not discriminate” and that “if a decision maker has to consider race, to decide [on enforcement] it has indeed participated in racism.” Cain’s ruling comes the same day as a report from the National Minority Quality Forum, which found that 56 percent of communities of color are sited within 3 kilometers of a site producing carcinogenic waste. The town of Reserve in St. John the Baptist Parish has cancer risks about 50 times the national average. Earthjustice, which filed the original Title VI complaint on behalf of St. John the Baptist Parish residents in 2022, blasted the ruling in a statement. “The court’s decision to issue this injunction is bad enough, but what’s worse is that instead of fixing the discriminatory permitting programs that have created sacrifice zones like Cancer Alley, Louisiana is fighting tooth and nail to keep them in place,” said Sam Sankar, Earthjustice’s senior vice president of programs. “The public health crisis in St. John the Baptist Parish shows us why we need Title VI: EPA needs to be able to use our civil rights laws to stop states from running permitting programs that perpetuate environmental injustice.”

West Nile virus emergence and spread in Europe positively associated with agricultural activities - The spread of West Nile virus in Europe is strongly linked to agricultural activities, urbanization, and bird migration, according to a modeling study published January 25, 2024, in the open-access journal PLOS Pathogens by Lu Lu from the University of Edinburgh, U.K., and collaborators belonging to a large European collaborative consortium under the VEO (Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory) project.West Nile virus outbreaks have occurred in birds (the natural hosts and reservoirs for the virus), livestock, and humans across Europe—however, the virus behaves differently in Europe compared to the U.S.To better understand the evolution and spread of West Nile virus in Europe specifically, Dr. Lu and colleagues used data gathered over the past 20 years from virus genomes and epidemiology studies as well as environmental surveys to generate a series of models that could simulate West Nile virus patterns across European geography.The authors found that one specific sub-lineage of the virus only found in Europe, WNV-2a, accounts for almost 75% of all European instances of the virus currently known, and has spread to 14 countries at least. The speed and direction of WNV-2a's spread was strongly correlated toagricultural activity, possibly because agricultural land use can degrade natural habitat for birds and force new migration patterns (potentially allowing the spread of West Nile virus to new areas), while simultaneously creating new aquatic habitat for mosquito breeding (the Culex mosquitoes are the primary carriers of the virus).The direction of WNV-2a's spread was also associated with urbanization, high coverage of wetlands, and migratory bird movements. The mosquito species and virus vector Culex pipiens is known to prefer urban environments due to the high availability of artificial aquatic habitats, fewer natural predators, and warmer ambient temperatures. Since birds often carry the virus, their movements also have the potential to spread it. The authors note that there were some significant gaps in available data from across Europe. The study points at a clear priority for enhanced surveillance in Central Europe, which may be a source for dissemination of West Nile virus across Europe. They also recommend stronger monitoring for West Nile virus in areas at high risk due to agriculture and/or bird habitat. “Enhanced monitoring should be targeted to areas where significant drivers of WNV spread overlap, particularly those with high agricultural intensity."

Brazil to launch vaccination campaign as dengue surges - Brazil will start a vaccination campaign against dengue fever in February, authorities said, as a sharp rise in cases of the potentially deadly disease raised fears of a runaway outbreak. The country of 203 million people, which approved the new "Qdenga" vaccine in December, will be the first in the world to offer it through the public health system, officials said. However, the number of available doses remains limited by a shortage of supply from its developer, Japanese pharmaceutical company Takeda, Brazil's health ministry said. "The first shipment of 750,000 doses of the anti-dengue vaccine has arrived in Brazil," the ministry said in a statement Sunday. In all, Brazil expects to receive 6.5 million doses this year of the two-dose vaccine, which is tailored for children. The World Health Organization recommended last year that Qdenga be issued to children ages six to 16 in dengue hotspots. The European Union, Indonesia and Thailand have also approved the vaccine. Brazil saw a 57-percent increase in dengue cases last year from 2022. And it registered 56,000 cases in the first two weeks of 2024, double the number from 2023. Six people have died of the disease so far this year in the South American country. Mosquito-borne dengue, which can cause hemorrhagic fever, infects an estimated 100 million to 400 million people yearly, although most cases are mild or asymptomatic, the WHO says. Climate change may be helping the disease spread. A recent report in the medical journal The Lancet found dengue transmission will increase by 36 percent if global temperatures rise two degrees Celsius by 2100.

CWD strikes deer farm in another Wisconsin county - The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade, and Consumer Protection (DATCP) yesterday announcedthat chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been detected at another deer farm, this time in Sheboygan County in the far eastern part of the state.Although CWD has been detected in wild deer from Sheboygan County before, the latest detection is the first to be reported in one of the county's deer farms. The DATCP said the detection involved a 5-year-old buck, and the result was confirmed by the US Department of Agriculture National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Ames, Iowa.The farm is in quarantine while officials from the DATCP and the US Department of Agriculture conduct an epidemiological investigation.Wisconsin has 243 registered deer premises, which includes 65 hunting ranches. Since 2001, deer at 44 farms have tested positive for CWD, according to DATCP data as of September 2023. The first CWD detection in wild deer from Sheboygan County occurred in 2019.CWD is a fatal prion disease, similar to bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad cow disease"), affecting deer, elk, and other cervids. The disease spreads among animals through direct contact and from exposure to contaminated saliva, blood, feces, or urine. It isn't known to affect humans, but health officials have urged people to avoid eating meat from infected animals and to take precautions when field dressing, butchering, or disposing of potentially infected animals.

White House rule dramatically deregulates wetlands, streams and drinking water, machine learning study finds --The 1972 Clean Water Act protects the "waters of the United States" but does not precisely define which streams and wetlands this phrase covers, leaving it to presidential administrations, regulators, and courts to decide. As a result, the exact coverage of Clean Water Act rules is difficult to estimate. New research led by a team at the University of California, Berkeley, used machine learning to more accurately predict which waterways are protected by the Act. The analysis found that a 2020 Trump administration rule removed Clean Water Act protection for one-fourth of U.S. wetlands and one-fifth of U.S. streams, and also deregulated 30% of watersheds that supply drinking water to household taps. The research was published in Science."Using machine learning to understand these rules helps decode the DNA of environmental policy," said author Joseph Shapiro, an associate professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley. "We can finally understand what the Clean Water Act actually protects."Prior analyses assumed that streams and wetlands sharing certain geophysical characteristics were regulated, without scrutinizing data on what was actually regulated—an approach the Environmental Protection Agency and Army Corps of Engineers called, "highly unreliable."The researchers trained a machine learning model to predict 150,000 jurisdictional decisions by the Army Corps. Each Corps decision interprets the Clean Water Act for one site and rule. The model predicts regulation across the U.S. under the Trump rule and its predecessor, the Supreme Court's "Rapanos" ruling, which had previously guided Corps decisions.The research found that the 2020 rule deregulated 690,000 stream miles, more than every stream in California, Florida, Illinois, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas combined. The wetlands deregulated under the 2020 rule provided over $250 billion in flood prevention benefits to nearby buildings, the study estimated."This game of regulatory ping-pong has staggering effects on environmental protection,"

Army Corps plans $1 billion barricade to deter invasive carp at Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers -- As a chief of project management with the Army Corps, Scott Whitney helps to make sure the invasive carp that took over parts of the Illinois River in the 1990s don’t make it to the other side. Soon the Army Corps could set in motion its nearly decade-long plan for this site and create a barrier to those nuisance fish. To prevent the prolific fish from spilling out of Illinois’ waterways and into Lake Michigan and beyond, the Army Corps is planning to build a $1.416 billion high-tech suite of barricades to deter the fish from moving upstream. The Brandon Road Interbasin Project could take anywhere from six to eight years at a minimum to complete once construction. The Army Corps and state department of natural resources are still working to finalize a partnership agreement. “One technology by itself is only so good, but four or five technologies together is going to give us what we need,” said Whitney of the megaproject that will include an electric barrier, a bubble wall, sound blasts and a flushing lock. Invasive carp is shorthand for a family of giant fish that can out-eat, out-grow and out-reproduce native fish. In parts of the Illinois river, researchers say there’s more carp than anywhere else on the planet. The furthest upstream populations of the carp are approximately 14 miles downstream. But Whitney and other scientists worry that there’s increasingly an opportunity for the carp to make it through and disrupt the food web inside the Great Lakes. Carp could decimate the entire recreational and commercial fishing industry that has sprung up around the lakes that’s valued at $7 billion annually. “The Great Lakes fisheries resources is a phenomenally rich resource that’s billions of dollars a year,” Whitney said. “Fish that come in and feed at the bottom of the food chain, they affect the entire ecosystem.” Whitney said on any given day, about 15 barges carrying petroleum products pass through here. The river has been a major economic highway since Illinois decided to break open the Great Lakes to the Mississippi River beginning in the 1800s with a system of canals. Joining the two watersheds turned Illinois into a major connector for a trade route from the Gulf of Mexico out past Canada. Every year, hundreds of tons of goods and commodities worth billions of dollars flow through the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. There is a spot near the confluence of the Illinois and Des Plaines rivers that the fish simply won’t cross. Scientists have theorized that Chicago’s waterway pollution has kept the carp in check for years. “If you go and sample fish from that leading edge and compare those fish to the downstream edge, we see higher indices of stress in those animals living at the upstream edge,” said Cory Suski, a professor of aquatic resources at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Suski found that fish closer to Chicago exhibited signs of increased exposure to contaminants than their downstream counterparts. Most recently, Suski and collaborators tested how young silver carp performed in water from the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS). They found that the carp’s behavior was off and just inhabiting the upstream water required more energy than usual. But the water quality of the CAWS is better than it’s ever been. Although 70% of the water in the CAWS comes from wastewater treatment facilities, fish species are beginning to thrive there. And that’s a concern.

Mississippi: Army Corps of Engineers sued for dead dolphins - Opening a spillway as a flood-control measure in 2019 sent polluted fresh water from the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico and killed bottlenose dolphins that live in saltwater, according to a new lawsuit.Several local governments and business groups on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, calling themselves the Mississippi Sound Coalition, filed the federal lawsuit Monday against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.The lawsuit argues that the Marine Mammal Protection Act requires federal agencies, including the Corps of Engineers, to obtain a U.S. Department of Commerce permit when their actions may disrupt the behavioral patterns of an animal such as the bottlenose dolphin.“The massive volumes of polluted fresh water diverted through the Bonnet Carré Spillway and into the Mississippi Sound caused direct and indirect mortality of resident bottlenose dolphins,” the lawsuit says. “Many of the dolphins that did survive developed ... skin lesions.”The lawsuit seeks a court order that would require the Corps of Engineers to comply with any obligation to obtain a permit before any further opening of the Bonnet Carré Spillway.The Associated Press sent an email Jan. 24 to the U.S. Department of Justice, which represents the Corps of Engineers, seeking a response to the lawsuit. A spokesperson said the department declined to comment. The Bonnet Carré Spillway is upriver from New Orleans. Opening the spillway diverts Mississippi River water to Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borgne, after which it flows to the Mississippi Sound in the Gulf of Mexico.When the river is high, opening the spillway eases pressure on the levees that protect New Orleans. However, opening the spillway also carries pollutants and nutrients into the Mississippi Sound and reduces salinity. The result can be damage to oyster, fish and crab habitats, and algae blooms that affect marine life and beaches. Mississippi Lieutenant Governor Delbert Hosemann has said the Corps of Engineers ignored its own procedures in opening Bonnet Carré Spillway in 2019, causing an environmental and economic disaster. Robert Wiygul, one of the attorneys representing the Mississippi Sound Coalition, said the group and Mississippi leaders have no conflict with protecting New Orleans. “We do have a conflict with the Corps of Engineers and the Corps’ position that the Mississippi Sound and our dolphins have to be sacrificed to prevent flooding,” Mr. Wiygul said in a statement Jan. 24. “We need to look for alternatives that can protect everyone’s interests, but the Corps refuses to even discuss them. The Mississippi Sound Coalition is working on win-win solutions that protect everyone.”

Permeable pavements could reduce salmon-killing tire pollutants -- The pore-like structure of permeable pavements may help protect coho salmon by preventing tire wear particles and related contaminants from entering stormwater runoff, according to a Washington State University study. Researchers have demonstrated that four types of permeable pavements can act as giant filters, retaining more than 96% of applied tireparticle mass. They also captured several tire-associated chemicals, resulting in a 68% average reduction of 6PPD-quinone, a contaminant shown to kill coho salmon in urban streams. The study findings were published in the journal Science of the Total Environment."The pressure on existing stormwater management technologies is becoming problematic, especially with climate change and increased development," said lead author Chelsea Mitchell, who recently earned a Ph.D. in environmental and natural resource sciences from WSU. "Permeable pavements are a very promising type of green stormwater infrastructure because they could treat this type of pollution where it's generated, rather than downstream."In 2020, a team led by WSU and University of Washington scientists at the Washington Stormwater Center discovered that 6PPD, a chemical found in tires, transforms into 6PPD-quinone when exposed to ozone or sunlight. Even in small concentrations, 6PPD-quinone is deadly to salmon."Permeable pavements make a difference in managing 6PPD-quinone and its source—tire wear particles," said study co-author Jayakaran. "6PPD-quinone is hydrophobic, and we think the chemical is being absorbed into the internal surfaces of the pavementsystem."Because of their void spaces, permeable pavements are inherently weaker than their traditional counterparts, making it hard for them to withstand heavy traffic flows. Researchers in the WSU Voiland College of Engineering and Architecture had previously demonstrated that using carbon fiber composite scraps derived from Boeing airplane wings could make the pavements stronger.

Environmental risks of new pesticides with nanoparticles insufficiently examined, say researchers - The environmental risks of new pesticides containing nanoparticles are inadequately researched, according to four Leiden University scientists, who have published an article in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. They call for an examination of the long-term and environmental effects of pesticides containing nanoparticles. Pesticides with nanomaterials seem to offer a promising solution. They are expected to protect agricultural crops without harming the environment and our health. These nanoparticles sometimes are the active ingredient, while at other times, they enhance the effectiveness of the actual pesticide as an additive. But does it really work as ideally as it sounds? Metal particles or organic compounds in nanoproducts may be released slowly or only under optimal (weather) conditions. This allows them to work for a longer period in the field and reduce leaching and runoff into surface water. The nanostructure can also facilitate better binding to crops or enhance the penetration of substances into the pest organism they are meant to control. Due to this efficiency, farmers may require less of nanoproducts compared to traditional pesticides. This sounds promising, but ecotoxicologist Tom Nederstigt is less enthusiastic. He conducted research on the environmental effects of manufactured nanoparticles in surface water, and investigated how the effects of exposure to these nanoparticles could be measured. He observed that these effects are currently not realistically examined. "In the case of nanopesticides, evaluations often do not consider that they generally work for a longer time and can be more toxic than traditional products. In practice, this could mean that use and emissions are smaller, but the downsides for nature are greater," Nederstigt notes. In their article, Nederstigt and colleagues explain how adverse effects of nanoproducts can occur and what researchers should focus on when assessing safety. For example, moles or crows may consume beetles killed by a nanoproduct. This product could accumulate in them, raising concerns. If beetles are exposed to the product for a longer time due to delayed release, the same may apply to non-target organisms such as worms and dragonflies, which may experience harm even though they are not the targets. Risk assessors of nanoproducts also rarely consider the effects on microbes, despite their significant role in soil and all organisms on Earth, an aspect studied by co-author Bregje Brinkmann. "Assessments generally focus only on direct exposure and its effects," the researchers write. They only consider the impact on those beetles, for example, the direct target of a product. "To truly understand the impact of nanoproducts, ecotoxicological research must also focus on indirect exposure and indirect effects." This includes non-target organisms such as worms, bees, dragonflies, and predators that may ingest the product directly or through their food. Assessors should also examine whether the product ends up in groundwater and neighboring areas.

Environmentalists oppose legislation to classify factory farm ‘biogas’ as clean energy — In a major “greenwashing” offensive, many factory farms — the highly profitable hubs of industrial agriculture that produce almost all the meat and dairy products sold by fast-food franchises and supermarkets — have recently begun using mechanical anaerobic “digesters” to turn some of the animal waste they generate into “biogas.” And provisions in recently introduced bills in Lansing would certify that such a gas would meet Michigan clean fuel standards.A coalition called Michiganders for a Just Farming System (MJFS) is battling big ag and oil company lobbyists to oppose these bills. Tom Progar, head of Veg Michigan, the organization that formed MJFS, says that if the biogas from the digesters is certified as a clean fuel, it would let factory farms with the digesters get lucrative carbon credits from the state, bringing here even more factory farms and their dire environmental, atmospheric, and economic consequences. Factory farms — officially termed concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) — already get billions annually in federal government subsidies. They operate mostly in poor rural areas and out-compete traditional family farms. Runoff from their toxic lagoons filled with animal waste has for many years caused widespread algae blooms in Lake Erie. And CAFOs generate a third of all methane emissions (mostly generated by cow burps) and more than three-quarters of nitrous oxide emissions. Both are greenhouse gasses much more potent than carbon dioxide, contributing significantly to atmospheric warming.Across the U.S., CAFOs produce millions of tons of manure and other waste daily. To add to that, factory farm biogas produces ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and smog-forming nitrogen oxides. Biogas facilities emit methane when they store digestate (the leftovers after waste is converted to gas) in open tanks. And biogas transport infrastructure — including pipelines and truck engines — leaks huge amounts of methane, compounding the already egregious factory farm impact with dirty energy production, according to an analysis by the nonprofit Food & Water Watch. The F&WW has monitored this same CAFO biogas scheme that’s been successful in California, which now has thousands of its own anaerobic digesters.To try to keep Michigan from following suit, MJFS has been organizing a letter-writing and phone-call campaign to legislators to oppose Senate Bill 275 and a companion measure in the state house.“We can’t let this fly under the radar,” says Progar. “It’s far too consequential for our quality of life in Michigan.”

Trump deregulated nearly 21 percent of streams, 25 percent of wetlands: Research -A rule published by the Trump administration removed protections for 21 percent of streams and 25 percent of wetlands that otherwise could have received federal protection, new research has found.The protections removed under the 2020 rule amounted to a deregulation of 690,000 stream miles and 35 million wetland acres, according to a paper published in the journal Science.The exact impacts of the rule were previously unclear because while federal regulations can set guidelines for whether certain bodies of water get protections, decisions are made on a case-by-case basis using those guidelines by the Army Corps of Engineers.However, since 2020, the political and legal landscape governing water regulations has changed.The Biden administration sought to protect more waters than its predecessor, but a 2023 Supreme Court ruling limited its ability to do so. The Biden administration has put new rules into place that implement the court’s decision.But, study author Joseph Shapiro said that early results of decisions made under the new framework are “similar” to the outcomes under the Trump rule. Shapiro also said that the methods the study uses can also be used in the future to figure out how many streams and wetlands are being protected under the latest framework.

Sargassum seaweed bloom explodes to ‘new record’ size – Massive clumps of smelly, toxic seaweed threaten to wash up on beaches across Florida and the Caribbean again this year. Last month, the bloom “increased so substantially that the abundance reached a new record from all previous December months,” researchers at the University of South Florida Optical Oceanography Lab said. This type of seaweed, called sargassum, exploded in abundance last month. One million metric tons of sargassum in the central Atlantic in November rapidly grew to 5 million tons by December. That’s more than has ever been observed in the month of December. “This indicates that 2024 will be another major Sargassum year,” the researchers wrote. The problem with sargassum isn’t really when it’s floating out in the ocean. In moderation, it can actually create a healthy habitat for sea creatures. But as it washes ashore and rots, the algae smell like rotten eggs. It can cause breathing issues for people with sensitivities and asthma. The size of these blooms, and the destruction they cause, has really ramped up over the past decade. “Before 2011, we never saw anything like this,” Brian Barnes, a research professor at the University of South Florida who studies sargassum, told Nexstar’s WFLA last year. The good news is that basically no sargassum was found in the Gulf of Mexico, and only a relatively small amount (120,000 tons) was found in the Caribbean Sea. But that’s expected to change over the coming months. Scientists anticipate the band of seaweed will keep growing more abundant, and currents will bring pieces of it westward. Last year, the sargassum mass grew to 13 million tons. Not all of that washed up on beaches, of course, but the clumps that did come ashore wreaked havoc on parts of Florida’s coast, and posed major challenges for the tourism industry over spring break and summer. If beachgoers do observe sargassum washing up on shore, the Florida Department of Health has recommended they avoid touching or swimming near the seaweed. The small creatures that live inside it, like jellyfish larvae, could sting or cause your skin to itch. The department also suggested using gloves if you have to handle sargassum and closing windows if you live near the beach to avoid breathing issues and bad smells.

Nursing home and senior living residents exposed to freezing temperatures during the Arctic blast -- Nursing homes and assisted living communities across the United States have reported losing power and heat during the so-called Arctic blast, endangering the lives of the elderly and disabled. In Kerrville, Texas, seniors at Waterside Nursing and Rehabilitation were left without heat last weekend. Staff, fearing retaliation but concerned about their residents, made anonymous reports to local news about the unsafe conditions in the building. Staff members reported that there were 50 patients directly impacted by the 40 degree temperatures, the majority of whom were over the age of 70 and suffering from Alzheimer’s disease. According to staff, they were simply told to put blankets over residents. Staff also reported that since they could see the residents' breath and that residents had to sleep in uncomfortable, cold conditions. Staff reported that the facility lost heat on Saturday and a state inspector did not arrive until Monday. It was not until Tuesday that heaters were brought in and residents were moved to other areas of the facility. The wave of brutally cold weather is continuing to affect large swaths of the country, with the latest reports indicating a death toll of over 90 people. Many areas of the country are unprepared for severe winter weather, increasing the danger of road accidents, power outages, hypothermia and putting some of society’s most vulnerable in danger. At The Portage Apartments senior living facility in Montana, one of two boilers went out, leaving the residents in below zero temperatures. According to one resident, “They always say it’s being worked on, it’s being worked on … That’s the same damn story they’ve had for two years, so, it’s ridiculous.” The residents have been forced to seek warmth by gathering near a fireplace in the common area. Some turned their ovens on with the oven door open to keep them warm in their rooms. Azria Health Montclair, a nursing home in Omaha, Nebraska was forced to relocate some of its residents after experiencing heating issues. Some residents were moved late in the evening when the temperatures reached -20 Fahrenheit (-29 Celsius). Nurses handed out extra blankets and gloves. Family members of the residents were told by the home’s administrator that the heating system could not be fixed for over a week. In Chicago, seniors at Woodlawn Senior Living suffered without heat for days. One resident reported waking up to an ice-cold apartment with the vents blowing cool air. She resorted to turning on the oven to keep warm but has not been able to sleep, anxious that she could start a fire or poison herself or others with carbon monoxide. She said that management dropped off a space heater two days later. Once again, the extremely cold weather has exposed the fragile conditions of the electricity and heating infrastructure across the U.S. particularly in nursing homes, senior living facilities and senior apartments. The elderly residents and patients in these facilities and apartments are one of the most vulnerable sections of society. The ruling class sees them not as people, but as a drain on society, no longer churning out profits for the corporate oligarchy.

Unprecedented rainfall in San Diego causes historic flooding and power outages, U.S. - (3 videos) San Diego, California was hit by record-breaking rainfall on January 22, 2024, causing widespread flooding, major road closures, and power cuts. Emergency services conducted multiple rescues, and Mayor Todd Gloria declared a state of emergency. Parts of California were hit by very heavy rainfall on January 22, producing floods that forced first responders to rescue people trapped and landslides that shut down roads. The San Diego area was the hardest hit, with rainfall amounts ranging between 50 and 100 mm (2 – 4 inches) in just three hours. This intense downpour, almost double the region’s average January rainfall, inundated the city, setting a new record for San Diego’s wettest January day since records began in 1850, said Casey Oswant, a National Weather Service meteorologist in San Diego. The San Diego International Airport recorded 68.58 mm (2.7 inches) of rainfall, surpassing the previous wettest January day on record for San Diego, which was 65.27 mm (2.57 inches) set on January 31, 1979 Preliminary rainfall data also place yesterday’s rainfall in San Diego as the fifth wettest on record, regardless of the time of year. In response to the emergency, San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria declared a state of emergency on Monday afternoon, advising residents to avoid flooded areas and unnecessary travel. The American Red Cross opened an evacuation center at Lincoln High School. Mónica Muñoz, a spokesperson for the San Diego Fire Department, reported at least 24 rescue operations, including individuals caught in the rain and motorists trapped in their vehicles. Additionally, a U.S. Border Patrol agent noted that a team of agents assisted firefighters in rescuing eight migrants along the border. In the Southcrest neighborhood, hundreds of people were rescued from residences on Beta Street, with reports of water entering houses starting around 11:00 LT. Muñoz described the rescue efforts, which involved inflatable boats and rescue boards to evacuate people from their flooded homes. The San Diego Metropolitan Transit System had to shut down its downtown trolley service and suspend many bus routes. As a precaution, the transit system advised residents against non-essential travel. By Monday afternoon (LT), the banks of the San Diego River in the Mission Valley neighborhood had overflowed, exacerbating the flooding. Forecasters issued a flash flood warning through midnight for the area around the Fashion Valley shopping mall in Mission Valley. Additionally, a flood watch remained in effect until 21:00 LT Monday for much of the region south and west of Los Angeles County. Over 9 000 San Diego homes and businesses found themselves without power, with San Diego Gas & Electric’s outage maps indicating widespread disruptions and projecting service restoration not likely until late Monday evening. As of 02:00 LT (09:00 UTC) on January 23, more than 8 600 customers in California were still without power, with 4 710 in the San Diego area. Evacuation warnings were issued for the Topanga Canyon area in Los Angeles County, effective until 06:00 local time on Tuesday, January 23. Authorities cautioned residents about potential debris flows in areas previously affected by wildfires.

Newsom declares state of emergency for parts of Southern California amid record rainfall - California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an emergency proclamation Tuesday to support recovery efforts in two South California counties weathering widespread flooding amid record rainfall. The proclamation, which applies to San Diego and Ventura counties, covers a fierce episode of winter weather that has engulfed the region in the past few days, as well as storms that occurred in early January and late December.“I find that conditions of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property exist due to these winter storms,” the governor declared. Monday’s rainfall accumulation at San Diego International Airport stacks up among the five wettest days for the area on record — with the local National Weather Service (NWS) branch measuring 2.73 inches at the facility. This made Monday the fourth wettest day in 174 years of records, behind only Oct. 4, 1923; April 5, 1926; and Dec. 2, 1854, per the NWS. The storm, alongside the previous two winter weather stretches, have “caused widespread flooding, mudslides, and debris flows threatening life and safety, structures, and other critical infrastructure,” the governor’s declaration states. The unusually treacherous weather has also prompted evacuations and road and school closures while inflicting “widespread damage to public and private property,” the document notes. The proclamation includes provisions aimed at facilitating unemployment benefits for affected residents, while waiving fees to replace records such as driver’s licenses and birth certificates. The governor’s declaration follows a local emergency proclamation issued by San Diego County, where officials cited damages caused by the storm and the associated flooding.

Flooding is engulfing Texas and the South from torrential rainstorm - Parts of East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley are on their way to picking up 10 inches or more of rain in a week, leading to serious flooding and prompting widespread flash flood watches and warnings. Up to 8 inches of rain has already fallen, and downpours dropping up to 4 inches of rain in a single hour are moving over the same areas. The worst flooding was concentrated in two zones: a strip from northwest of Houston to near Shreveport, La., and then a smaller, more localized corridor farther east. Both regions had locally exceeded 7 inches of rain, and have another 2 or 3 days of rainfall to tack on. Flood watches blanket much of the area from eastern Texas to southern Tennessee, including Houston; Galveston, Tex.; Shreveport; New Orleans; Memphis; Huntsville, Ala.; Birmingham, Ala.; and Atlanta. It’s within the same zone that the National Weather Service has drawn a Level 3 out of 4 moderate risk of flash flooding and excessive rainfall. It appears as a red bull’s eye on maps, marking areas where computer models suggest up to a 90 percent chance of 3 or more inches of rain in a day’s time. “Totals of 4-6 inches with as much as 8 inches are being depicted on deterministic [models] from eastern Cameron Parish up through Baton Rouge and points east along and north of I-10,” cautioned the Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. A number of flash flood warnings had been hoisted from Lafayette, La., and Baton Rouge to Jackson, Miss. “Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen,” summarized the National Weather Service. “The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches are possible in the warned area.” That means some locations could register a foot or more of rain when all is said and done. The heaviest rain totals so far were nearing double digits. Here’s a roundup of some select totals:

• 9.47 inches at Buckners Creek near La Grange, Tex.
• 8.80 inches at Egypt, Tex.
• 8.72 inches near Schulenburg, Tex.
• 8.36 inches near Brenham, Tex.
• 7.59 inches at the Atchafalaya River at Simmesport, La.
• 7.35 inches in Huntsville, Tex.

Virtually all of the 6-to-10-inch totals fell in a zone from east of San Antonio to the Sabine National Forest along the Texas-Louisiana border. That’s where training downpours, or rainfall repeatedly moving over the same area, occurred.

Life-threatening flash flooding and severe storms hit the Gulf Coast -A disaster declaration was issued in southeastern Texas and cars became trapped in floodwaters in Louisiana as heavy rain soaked parts of the South on Wednesday, leaving millions of people there under alerts and warnings, officials said.In San Jacinto County, where top executive Judge Fritz Faulkner issued the disaster declaration, residents below the Lake Livingston Dam were urged to voluntarily evacuate.County emergency officials cited “imminent danger of high rising water from the river.”More than 38 million people were under flood watches and another 2 million were under flood warnings Wednesday evening, according to the National Weather Service, mostly in a swath of the country from Texas to Georgia and Tennessee.A flash flood emergency was declared in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana, where images shared by the weather service showed flooded streets and cars.“Cars have stalled and drove off the roads. We have received so much rain in a short period of time. Stay off the roads if possible!” the parish, on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, warned.The threat of flash floods could extend into Thursday.Forecasters warned that localized double-digit rainfall totals in the 10-12 inch range were also not out of the question, especially after a second drenching of rain occurs during the day Thursday.A little over 10 inches of rain fell in Industry, Texas, and around 5 to 6 inches fell in parts of Brazos County as of around 9:30 a.m. Wednesday,according to the weather service. These significant rainfall rates, combined with an already saturated ground, will create the risk for deadly flash flood conditions. Water rushing over roadways could sweep away cars and could be difficult to spot if the flooding occurs during nighttime.The weather service in Houston, where there was a flood watch until noon Thursday, warned of additional rain through Thursday morning.An additional 2 to 4 inches was forecast across southeast Texas and central Louisiana Wednesday night, according to the weather service in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Southwest Louisiana was forecast for a possible additional 4 to 6 inches. In addition to urban flash flooding, river flooding was a concern, especially along major rivers such as the Trinity, San Jacinto and Navidad in southeastern Texas, all of which are expected to rise to a major flood stage.In Montgomery County, Texas, which is north of Houston, firefighters on Wednesday brought 17 people and and 15 pets to safety as the swollen San Jacinto River caused flooding, the fire department there said.The San Jacinto River near Humble, which is just south of the county, was at minor flood stage late Wednesday and was forecast to crest at 51.8 feet, which is a moderate stage, on Friday, according to the weather service.

Flood danger grows across South, 4 million threatened – Weather News - As our WeatherRadar shows, heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms continue from the Louisiana Gulf coast northeastward up the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley and the Mid-South.More than 5 inches of rain has fallen from eastern Texas and southern Louisiana northward into western Tennessee. A few spots in Louisiana and Mississippi have seen more than 8 inches of rainfall. Buchner’s Creek, Texas, has received almost 10 inches of rain since Tuesday. The deluge is due to a slow-moving storm system moving across the lower Mississippi Valley. Tapping the Gulf of Mexico, another 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible from southern Louisiana and the central Gulf Coast northward into the southern Appalachians. Even higher amounts are likely within the embedded thunderstorms accompanying the downpours along the Gulf Coast and into northern Georgia.These downpours will continue into Thursday as the system slowly spreads northward into the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic.This rain is falling on already saturated soil and flowing into waterways that are already reaching flood stage. There is an increasing risk of flash flooding, and watches have been posted across eastern Texas, central and northern Louisiana, southern and central Arkansas, most of Mississippi, northern and central Alabama, southern and western Tennessee and northwestern Georgia. This includes Shreveport, Alexandriaand New Orleans, La., Jackson and Tupelo, Miss., Birmingham, Ala., Memphis, Tenn., and Atlanta.January has been a soggy month across the South. Houston has already had its fourth wettest January on Month while San Antonio, Texas, and Gulfport, Miss., have had their second wettest January. Spartanburg, S.C., has already broken its monthly rainfall record.

Senators call for reform as National Flood Insurance Program faces lapse - Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) led calls to reform the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) during a hearing Thursday, accusing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) of lying to homeowners about their insurance rates. The FEMA-run program provides flood insurance to property owners, renters and businesses. Unless lawmakers move to reauthorize, it is set to lapse on Feb. 2, 2024. Kennedy said at a Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs hearing that the program needs to be reworked to make it look “like somebody designed it on purpose.” In September, FEMA announced that more than 1 million policyholders would see a decrease in their premiums when their policy was renewed. That’s out of about 5 million policyholders total. But Kennedy said he had not met anyone who actually saw their rate drop. “This is just an excuse to raise premiums and they don’t care,” Kennedy said. “The whole purpose of the National Flood Insurance Program was to provide a product that people can afford.” Instead, he pointed to people in Louisiana who saw their premiums increase by up to five times. Members of the committee have introduced legislation to reform the program by capping the rate increase at 9 percent, instead of the 18 percent it currently allows for most policy holders. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), one of the sponsors of the bill, said the cap is necessary to protect policyholders from being priced out. “What happens is that families who are forced to drop their insurance coverage due to rising costs and later suffer damage in future disasters? That’s the ultimate disaster to them.” With insurance being more affordable, more people would be able to afford insurance through the program, which in turn helps widen the pool, spread out the risk and reduce cost, Menendez said. The National Flood Insurance Program Reform Act also suggests vouchers for low- and middle-class families if premiums become too high, additional oversight measures for insurance companies and increased efforts to identify and reduce flood risks. “If we know right now which homes are most at risk, we shouldn’t wait until the flood to step in and help,” Menendez said. “For every dollar of mitigation, the federal government saves $7 in disaster relief payments.” Michael Hector, the president and CEO of Greater New Orleans Inc., told senators that while the program is expensive — estimated to cost $36 million over the past few years — FEMA said it has saved about $120 billion in losses. That puts the net benefit at $85 billion. Hector said the program must be reformed and reauthorized, as a lapse would severely destabilize the national housing market and harm homeowners. “The reality is that the NFIP program is about allowing the working coast and rivering parts of America to keep working,” he said.

Tropical Cyclone “Kirrily” forecast to make landfall over Queensland as Category 2 system - Tropical Cyclone “Kirrily” — currently a Category 1 system — is set to intensify and make landfall in Queensland, Australia on January 25, 2024, as a Category 2 cyclone, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall expected.

• BOM is warning people living between Innisfail to Cardwell, and inland to Charters Towers, to consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
• People between Cardwell to Townsville and Bowen to Sarina, including Mackay and Bowen should take precautions and listen to the next advice.
• People between Townsville and Bowen, and the Whitsunday Islands should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

Tropical Cyclone “Kirrily” has formed in the Coral Sea off the coast of Queensland, Australia on Wednesday, January 24, 2024, marking the third named storm of the 2023/24 Australian region cyclone season.As of 16:00 AEST (05:00 UTC) today, Kirrily is a slow-moving Category 1 cyclone with sustained winds near the center of 75 km/h (47 mph), gusting up to 100 km/h (62 mph). The cyclone’s center was approximately 630 km (391 miles) east-northeast of Townsville and 530 km (329 miles) northeast of Mackay.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued warnings for residents in the affected region, anticipating Kirrily’s landfall between Cardwell and Bowen on the evening of January 25, 2024, as a Category 2 system. Once it crosses the coast, Kirrily is expected to weaken rapidly into a tropical low, moving further inland and across central Queensland, bringing heavy to intense rainfall to northern interior and western regions from Friday into the weekend.Key hazards include gales with damaging wind gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph) developing around the Whitsunday Islands and extending to mainland communities between Ayr and Sarina by Thursday morning. The system may also bring destructive wind gusts up to 140 km/h (87 mph) to coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Proserpine, including Townsville and the Whitsunday Islands, by late Thursday.Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely to develop along coastal areas between Innisfail and Sarina from early Thursday, with intense rainfall near the cyclone’s track, heightening the risk of dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding during its coastal crossing. A flood watch is in effect for these areas.With the cyclone’s approach and coastal crossing, a storm tide is expected between Townsville and Mackay, potentially causing minor flooding along the foreshore. Residents in affected areas are advised to take measures to protect their property and be prepared to help neighbors.The BOM and local authorities recommend that residents between Innisfail to Cardwell, and inland to Charters Towers, stay vigilant and consider necessary actions if the cyclone threat escalates. Those in the path of the cyclone, particularly between Cardwell and Sarina, including Mackay and Bowen, are urged to take precautions and stay updated with the latest advice.People between Townsville and Bowen, and the Whitsunday Islands should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.During Friday, the system is expected to become a tropical low and heavy rainfall may develop across the northern interior and western Queensland into the weekend as the system tracks inland.

Massive landslide hits Yunnan, burying 47 people in two villages amid freezing temperatures, China - (2 videos) A massive landslide in Yunnan province, China, early on January 22, 2024, resulted in at least 47 people buried and the evacuation of 500 others amid freezing temperatures. A large-scale rescue operation is in progress, with at least 1 000 rescuers and 200 vehicles. A destructive landslide struck southwestern China’s Yunnan province early on Monday, January 22, 2024, burying at least 47 people in its wake. The disaster occurred at 05:51 local time (21:51 UTC on Sunday, January 21), ravaging two small villages, Hexing and Heping, located in the mountainous northeastern area of the province, bordering Sichuan and Guizhou Provinces. Authorities ordered the evacuation of 500 people due to the hazardous conditions characterized by freezing temperatures and ongoing snowfall. Rescue operations commenced immediately, focusing on 18 houses that were buried under the debris. Unfortunately, two individuals were found deceased amidst the rubble, according to reports from CCTV, which cited a journalist present at the scene. YouTube video Zhenxiong County said the 47 victims belonged to 18 different households. The severity of the incident prompted the Chinese government to dispatch a substantial contingent of nearly 1 000 rescue workers, accompanied by close to 200 rescue vehicles, to the site. A witness to the disaster, a man known as Gu, described the suddenness of the event to local media, stating, “The mountain just collapsed, dozens were buried.” Media coverage, including drone footage, further illustrated the extent of the devastation, showing a vast expanse of dark mud covering the landscape, with village houses buried under snow. Videos released by local media depicted the intense rescue operations underway among the collapsed homes and buildings. People’s Daily reported that more than 500 individuals were evacuated from the region following the landslide. In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping has demanded a full-scale search and rescue operation to find those still missing. He emphasized the need for swift action to minimize casualties and called for enhanced monitoring, early warnings, and a scientific approach to rescue efforts to prevent secondary disasters. The geographical setting of Yunnan, known for its steep slopes and unstable soil, makes it susceptible to landslides. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the current cold snap affecting much of southern China, including Yunnan, with the China Meteorological Administration reporting temperatures nearing or dropping below freezing. YouTube video This incident in Yunnan is part of a series of recent natural disasters in China, including last week’s rescue of tourists from a remote skiing area in northwestern China, where avalanches trapped over 1 000 people. In addition, China experienced a significant number of landslides last year, resulting in at least 70 fatalities, including more than 50 in an open pit mine in Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, just over a month ago, a M6.2 earthquake struck a remote region between Gansu and Qinghai provinces, claiming at least 149 lives and causing substantial property damage.

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century | Science Advances INTRODUCTION: Over the past century, anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of concurrent heat and drought events globally (1–4). In a warming climate, a more comprehensive understanding of compound climate hazards has immediate relevance for evaluating and planning for climate change impacts. Individual climatic events can have serious effects on agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystems, but compounding hazards can result in cascading and intensified consequences for these systems (5, 6). The combination of anomalous heat with rainfall deficits have already led to droughts that are substantially more intense because of high temperatures and elevated vapor pressure deficits and have thus been called hot droughts (7, 8). While the past century documents an increase in the concurrence of heat and drought conditions around the world, the mechanism for this is still somewhat unclear. For example, one explanation for the increase in hot drought is that because droughts are now occurring in a warmer world, the probability of any given event occurring during a warm year is increasing (9). Another explanation suggests that temperature has an amplifying effect on drought through increased evaporative demand (10, 11). In addition to uncertainties related to the mechanisms driving the 20th-21st century increases in hot drought occurrence, little is known about the pre-instrumental frequency and magnitude of compound hot and dry conditions. While the paleorecord allows for the longer-term evaluation and contextualization of modern climate extremes, the utility of paleorecords to document changes in shorter-term extremes and to assess compound extreme events (12, 13) is still unexplored. However, the systematic collection and analysis of paleoclimate records can indeed provide evidence of these changes over longer timescales (14). RESULTS: Reconstructed summer temperatures across WNA since 1553 CE - We use an extensive network of tree-ring chronologies (fig. S1) as the predictors for a spatial reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures extending back to at least 1553 CE. Density and BI records comprising the WNATA network exhibit significant (P < 0.01) positive relationships with warm season (April to September) monthly average maximum temperatures, with the strongest average monthly temperature response occurring in August (fig. S2). All WNATA tree-ring chronologies are representative of densiometric tree growth (see the Supplementary Materials), thus, it is expected that the maximum temperature response coincides with the seasonal timing of secondary cell wall thickening (41), characteristic of temperate North American conifers. Our reconstructions explain at least 40% of the variance in both the calibration and verification periods across most WNA (fig. S3). Positive validation statistics (42) indicate adequate model skill and temporal stability across much of the region. The spatial patterns of reconstructed temperature variability are further corroborated by the similar patterns in the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in both the reconstructed and the instrumental data (fig. S4), explaining 90.8 and 72.5% of their total variability, respectively. We applied a varimax rotation to the first four EOFs of the WNATA and used the factor loadings from these rotations to determine the geographic bounds of the four subregional, spatially averaged temperature reconstructions: VF1-Texas/Mexico, VF2-Pacific Northwest, VF3-Great Plains, and VF4-southwest United States (Fig. 1). Pearson’s correlation values between the four-leading varimax-rotated EOF time series based on the reconstruction and the instrumental data (r = 0.42, 0.72, 0.67, and 0.66; 1901 to 2000 CE; fig. S5) further reflect the overall strong skill of the WNATA for capturing the spatial nature of temperature variability at 0.5° resolution. However, the comparatively low skill of the WNATA in the Texas/Mexico subregion reflects the limited temperature-sensitive tree-ring collections in the WNATA network in this area (fig. S1), and results pertaining to this part of WNA should be interpreted with caution. The subregional-average reconstructions reflect multidecadal trends in temperature variability, most notably documenting a steady warming trend spanning ~1960 to present. Reconstructed summer temperatures also reflect significant (P < 0.01) seasonal cooling following major volcanic eruptions (fig. S6). Subregional WNATA reconstructions are highly correlated and exhibit similar multidecadal patterns of temperature variability with preexisting reconstructions back to 1600 CE based solely on tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) (fig. S7) (43). However, the WNATA dataset allows for the examination of temperature for several decades to several centuries further back in time, and the reconstruction models calibrate over an additional 20 years forward in time. The temporal extension back to 1553 CE allows for direct and independent comparisons of maximum temperature and drought through recent times including during the late 16th-century megadrought.

‘Hot drought’ in the West is unprecedented in at least 5 centuries, study suggests | CNN — The West’s recent heat-driven megadroughts are unprecedented in at least 500 years, new research shows.“Hot drought” — when extreme drought and heat occur simultaneously — has increased in severity and frequency over the last century due to human-caused climate change, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances.“What we’re seeing is that megadrought conditions are being amplified by anthropogenically driven (human caused) temperature increases,” said Karen King, lead author of the study and assistant professor in physical geography at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. Wednesday’s study builds on previous research, including one study that found the last two decades in the West have been the driest in 1,200 years, and the human-caused climate crisis made the yearslong dry spell 72% worse.Both studies used tree ring data, which can serve as scientific time capsules as they are affected by sunlight, rainfall and temperature, allowing researchers to reconstruct the past.While the previous study measured the length and width of the tree rings to gauge drought conditions, King’s research analyzed the density of the rings to measure how temperatures changed over time. “More dense rings mean warmer temperatures, and less dense rings mean cooler temperatures, typically,” King explained.She spent the last few years driving around the Pacific Northwest and the Interior Mountain West, including parts of Utah, Arizona and Colorado, to measure different tree species.After collecting tree ring data to analyze summer maximum temperatures across the region from 1553 to 2020 as well as existing historical drought records, King and her team were able to corroborate that the last two decades have been among the hottest years on record in at least five centuries across much of the western US.“It wasn’t that surprising, but when you put the two (studies) together, it paints a very cohesive picture that this anthropogenic influence on increased hot drought, particularly in the Southwest, is unprecedented over the last several centuries.”While droughts have frequented the West in the past, researchers say the effects are much more pronounced today due to alarmingly high temperatures. And the water supply has taken a large hit.According to the study, the regions most affected by hot droughts include the Great Plains, which contain the Ogallala aquifer — one of the country’s largest that supports nearly 25% of the region’s agriculture — and portions of the Colorado River Basin, which has been plagued by extreme drought and overuse in recent decades.

Aridity Could Dry Up Southwestern Mine Proposals - —One by one, leaders from across Arizona gave speeches touting the importance of water conservation at Phoenix City Hall as they celebrated the announcement of voluntary agreements to preserve the declining Colorado River in November.When Tao Etpison took the mic, his speech echoed those who went before him. Water is the lifeblood of existence, andusers of the Colorado River Basin were one step closer to preserving the system that has helped life in the Southwest flourish. Then he brought up the elephant in the room: Arizona’s groundwater protection was lacking, and mining companies were looking to take advantage.“The two largest foreign-based multinational mining companies in the world intend to construct the massive Resolution Copper Mine near Superior,” said Etpison, the vice chairman of the San Carlos Apache Tribe. “This mine will use, at a minimum, 775,000 acre feet of groundwater, and once the groundwater is gone, it’s gone. How can this be in the best interests of Arizona?” The question is one the state and the Southwest must answer. Mine claims for the elements critical to the clean energy transition are piling up from Arizona to Nevada to Utah. Lithium is needed for the batteries to store wind and solar energy and power electric vehicles. Copper provides the wiring to send electricity where it will be needed to satisfy exploding demand. But water stands in the way of the transition, with drought playing into nearly every proposed renewable energy development, from solar to hydropower, as the Southwest debates what to do with every drop it has left as the region undergoes aridification due to climate change and decades of overconsumption. Mining opponents argue the proposals could impact endangered species, tribal rights, air quality and, of course, water—both its quantity and its quality. Across the Southwest, the story of 2023 was how water users, from farmers in the Colorado River Basin to fast-growing cities in the Phoenix metropolitan area, needed to use less water, forcing changes to residential development and agricultural practices. But left out of that conversation, natural resource experts and environmentalists say, is the water used by mining operations and the amount that would be consumed by new mines. The San Carlos Apache Tribe has fought for years to stop Resolution’s proposed mine. It would be built on top of Oak Flat, a sacred site to the Apache and other Indigenous communities, and a habitat of rare species like the endangered Arizona hedgehog cactus, which lives only in the Tonto National Forest near the town of Superior. The fate of the mine now rests with the U.S. District Court in Arizona after the grassroots group Apache Stronghold filed a lawsuit to stop it, arguing its development would violate Native people’s religious rights.But for communities located near the mine and across the Phoenix metropolitan area, the water it would consume is just as big of an issue.Throughout the mine’s lifespan, Resolution estimates it would use 775,000 acre feet of water—enough for at least 1.5 million Arizona households over roughly 40 years. And experts say the mine would likely need far more. “By pumping billions of gallons of groundwater from the East Salt River Valley, this project would make Arizona’s goal for stewardship of its scarce groundwater resources unreachable,” one report commissioned by the San Carlos Apache Tribe reads. In one hydrologist’s testimony to Congress, water consumption was estimated to be 50,000 acre feet a year—about 35,000 more than the company has proposed drawing from the aquifer.The Resolution copper mine isn’t the only water-intensive mining operation being proposed. Many of what the industry describes as “critical minerals,” like lithium and copper, are found throughout the Southwest, leading to a flurry of mining claims on the region’s federally managed public lands. “Water is going to be scarcer in the Southwest but the mining industry is basically immune from all these issues,” said Roger Flynn, director and managing attorney at the Western Mining Action Project, which has represented tribes and environmental groups in mining-related lawsuits, including the case over Oak Flat.

El Nino needed to ease Southwest US drought As the new year 2024 launched, although 31% of the Southwest U.S. region is in drought (including parts of the four corners states Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico) with some in moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3,) and exceptional drought (D4) in New Mexico. However, there’s also some good news, and the current climate phenomenon El Nino is still providing hope for more moisture this winter. The latest Southwest U.S. Climate Drought Briefing held Tues., Jan. 9, 2024, by the National Oceanic and Atmosheric Administration’s National Integrated Drought Information System provided an overview of the current climate conditions in the region including updates on reservoir storage and the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.Parts of Colorado, like southeast Colorado saw near-normal precipitation for December, however, statewide precipitation has been below-normal since the beginning of the Water Year (since Oct. 1). Although areas of Colorado are experiencing below-normal snowpack conditions, it’s early in the season and there’s potential for conditions to improve, considering El Nino events tend to favor above-normal precipitation across much of the Southwest region.“Snowpack in the basins across Colorado are currently at below-normal levels, but it’s too early to say that they’re in a critical situation because it’s still somewhat early in the season and we still have several months to go in the cool season when conditions could turn around,” said David Simeral, climatologist with the Desert Research Institute, a speaker on the webinar.The recent snows have provided some minor relief in areas of Colorado including the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado where areas picked up 1 to 2 feet of snow at the start of January 2024.“Fortunately, in terms of water storage, the good news is Colorado has had some good carryover from last winter, so reservoirs are in pretty good shape across Colorado after last winter’s deluge of snow,” Simeral said. Comparing reservoir conditions with a year ago, Colorado’s reservoirs as well as others in the region are generally in better shape going into 2024. However, some reservoirs (Lake Powell and Lake Mead) continue to have below-normal levels due to the longer-term drought situation in the region.We’re currently in a strong El Nino event (of El Nino Southern Oscillation). El Nino is expected to continue through the winter and then has a 60% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2024. Based on the current outlooks, January offers high probabilities of above-normal precipitation across much of the Southwest region, as well as in the January-March period across areas of Colorado, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. These states are generally wetter than normal during El Nino events. It’s early in the season and the situation could turn around based on historical precipitation patterns and recent mid-to-long range forecasts, which are leaning towards above-normal precipitation in the region, Simeral said.

The 6 states facing the most serious groundwater crises - A heating planet and expanding commercial agriculture are putting increasing pressure on America’s vital aquifers — underground reservoirs that supply water to an estimated 145 million Americans, as well as supporting much of the nation’s food supply. New research published Tuesday in Nature uncovered rapid and accelerating declines in underground water sources across the world, with some of the fastest and most significant collapses impacting aquifers that supply the American West. Researchers told The Hill that declines aren’t inevitable, and that they can be reversed — but doing so requires a clear understanding of where the losses are happening, and what is driving them. Based on the data gathered by the scientists behind the Nature study, here are six states where the collapse of groundwater supplies poses the biggest challenge.

• California - The collapse of groundwater reserves beneath California’s Central Valley stands out as particularly severe — even among all the global losses. The state, which has for years struggled with drought, depends more heavily on its underground water stores than any other in the country: Currently, California accounts for 21 percent of total groundwater usage in the U.S., and draws about 67 percent of its fresh water from its groundwater reserves. That reliance is taking a toll: Of California’s 183 groundwater basins evaluated by the Nature team, three-quarters are in decline — and for many, that decline is occurring very quickly. The most significant of the losses are hitting the state’s Central Valley — a result of 25 percent of the nation’s agriculture being concentrated in less than 1 percent of its area, in a region that combines near-desert aboveground conditions with rich reserves of underground water that have accumulated over thousands of years. Or at least, once-rich reserves. The Nature team found that 15 of California’s basins showed rapid decline — virtually all of which are beneath its Central Valley. But all five of these rapidly depleted areas are part of the San Joaquin Valley, which accounts for half of California’s agricultural production. That connection isn’t a coincidence. Eighty percent of the groundwater California uses goes to agriculture, according to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
• Texas - While the aquifers beneath Texas don’t face the level of critical collapse that California’s do, the hot, dry Southwestern state is also facing a thirsty century According to the Nature researchers’ data, 82 percent of Texas’s aquifers are in some form of decline. Of these, one — Lobo Flat, the site of a ghost town that once thrived when the water did — is in rapid decline, losing 0.6 meters (23 inches) per year. Another, the Edwards-Trinity or High Plains aquifer, is just below that threshold, with annual losses of 0.45 meters (just under 18 inches). As The Hill reported in 2022, that region has faced the twin onslaughts of drought and a boom in water-hungry dairies — both of which have put added pressure on the already declining aquifers, and stirred fears about agriculture in the Texas High Plains coming to an end. While the story for most state aquifers is a more protracted decline than punctuated drop-off, in more than a quarter of Texas’s underground basins — 28 percent — groundwater loss is speeding up. Levels in those basins are receding at twice the rate in the 21st century as they did at the end of the 20th. In some, the decline is accelerating even faster than that.
• Idaho - This state has the dubious honor of hosting the fastest collapsing aquifer in the Nature researchers’ dataset: the Mill Creek Aquifer, which is losing 2.17 meters (more than 7 feet) of water per year — a serious concern for the 200,000 people who rely on it for drinking water. While Mill Creek is the only aquifer in Idaho experiencing rapid decline, levels are falling in 60 percent of the state’s other groundwater stores, and in 11 percent of them that decline has more than doubled since the last century. As elsewhere, this decline is driven by farming. Despite having a population of less than 2 million, Idaho accounts for 6 percent of the nation’s total groundwater usage, 92 percent of which it puts toward crops and livestock.
• Arizona - The driving forces behind Arizona’s water woes are a mix of those causing the losses in California and the Texas High Plains: declines in the Colorado River, which supplies Arizona with more than a third of its water, booming cities and an agriculture industry that is growing thirsty crops such as alfalfa using sparsely regulated groundwater. With surface water supplies diminishing and rain famously scarce in the desert, 41 percent of Arizona’s water supply comes from wells — and according to the Nature study, 70 percent of these are in decline across the state. One farming region, the Gila Bend Basin, has become a “top priority” for state water managers due to the precipitous collapse in its aquifer levels, which have fallen nearly 300 feet since the 1990s. According to the Nature researchers’ data, that basin has seen 1.21 meters (47 inches) of deepening per year — marking the most dramatic decline in any of the state’s basins, but far from the only one..
• Utah - For now, Utah’s big cities can rely on the snowmelt that comes off the Wasatch Front, which looms above the urban corridor that includes Salt Lake City — a metropolis that gets just 10 percent of its water from underground. But the state as a whole depends on groundwater to meet 60 percent of its water needs — of which 80 percent is consumed by agriculture. Under pressure from both growing cities and irrigation, 82 percent of Utah’s aquifers are in a state of decline — 11 of them at twice the rate of last century. Two of these deepening aquifers, the Parowan and Goshen Valley, are declining at either just above or just below the rate the Nature researchers consider rapid.
• Mississippi - Despite Mississippi’s position beside the enormous river that gives the state its name, groundwater provides its residents with 82 percent of their fresh water. That level of dependence on underground water is unparalleled in the eastern U.S. And it’s exacerbated by the fact that farmers and cities in neighboring states — from the rice farmers of Arkansas to the city of Memphis, Tenn. — depend on many of the same subterranean reservoirs. One of these in particular — the Middle Claiborne, which stretches in a vast rounded triangle from Jackson, Miss., to Memphis almost to Little Rock, Ark., but was owned by Mississippi — was the cause of a suit between Mississippi and Memphis that reached the Supreme Court in 2021. In that case, Mississippi complained that Memphis’s use of the Claiborne water beneath Tennessee was sucking its own resources dry — forcing the high court to determine whether aquifers were governed by the same rules as interstate surface river basins like the Colorado. It ruled they were, and that the two states must share the water by equitable apportionment. But Mississippi has less and less to share.

Large pyroclastic flow at Merapi volcano, ashfall blankets nearby communities, Indonesia - A significant eruption occurred at Indonesia’s Merapi volcano at approximately 06:55 UTC (13:55 local time) on January 21, 2024, producing a large pyroclastic flow that reached about 2 km (1.2 miles) from the summit. The eruption caused a large ash cloud and panic but no fatalities or injuries have been reported. The Alert Level remains at 3 (on a scale of 1 – 4). . This eruption was accompanied by a significant pyroclastic flow (PDC), which traveled through the Bebeng/Krasak ravine on the volcano’s southeastern flank. The flow extended approximately 2 km (1.2 miles) from the summit, alarmingly close to populated areas. Agus Budi Santoso, the head of Indonesia’s Geological Disaster Technology Research and Development Center, reported that the eruption propelled a column of hot clouds about 100 m (330 feet) into the air. The resultant ash fall affected several villages, causing widespread panic among the residents. Similar activity continued throughout the day and into January 22. As of now, there have been no confirmed fatalities or injuries. However, the full extent of the impact in the areas hit by the pyroclastic flow remains unclear, with information still being gathered. For January 5 – 11, 2024, BPPTKG reported a total of 189 lava avalanches from the SW lava dome that descended the S, SW, and W flanks. Eight of them traveled S as far as 1.5 km (0.9 miles) down the upper part of the Boyong drainage, 178 traveled SW as far as 1.8 km (1.1 miles) down the upper part of the Bebeng drainage, and three traveled as far as 1.5 km (0.9 miles) down the Sat/Putih drainage. Four pyroclastic flows descended the Boyong and Bebeng drainages as far as 1.5 km (0.9 miles). Morphological changes to the SW lava dome identified in webcam images were due to continuing collapses of material. Merapi is the most active of Indonesia’s 120-plus volcanoes. This eruption is the latest significant event since the volcano’s alert level was raised to the second-highest in November 2020, following the detection of increased volcanic activity. Residents living on Merapi’s slopes had been advised to maintain a safe distance of at least 7 km (4.3 miles) from the crater to avoid potential lava flows. The volcano’s history is marked by deadly eruptions, including a significant event in 2010 that resulted in the deaths of 347 people and displaced about 20 000 villagers. Its proximity to Yogyakarta, a city rich in Javanese culture and history, adds to the concern, as roughly a quarter million people reside within a 10 km (6.2 miles) radius of Merapi.

Earthquake Lifts the Noto Peninsula - NASA Earth Observatory -- The first day of 2024 brought catastrophe to parts of Japan. At 4:10 p.m. Japan Standard Time (07:10 Universal Time), the land on the Noto Peninsula in northwestern Honshu began to lurch, shaking violently for about 50 seconds. The 7.5 magnitude mainshock was followed by dozens of strong aftershocks in the following minutes, hours, and days.The earthquake on January 1, 2024, was the strongest to hit Ishikawa Prefecture since 1885 and mainland Japan since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Shaking was felt across much of Honshu including Tokyo, located about 300 kilometers southeast of the earthquake’s epicenter. Shaking was most intense in the towns of Suzu, Noto, Wajima, and Anamizu, close to the epicenter on the northern Noto Peninsula. Damage to infrastructure ignited fires that burned through communities. Heavy snowthat fell after the quake complicated emergency response efforts, making it difficult for aid to reach some communities.As first responders reacted to the disaster from the ground, several teams of scientists tracked the situation using satellites. The map above shows the amount of ground displacement—the shifting of the land—caused by the earthquake. Red areas were pushed upward and toward the northwest. The scattered dark blue and red areas around the airport and other cleared areas and settlements throughout the peninsula are likely false signalscaused by how the shapes of buildings or other features reflect radar signals.“The surface moved upward as much as 4 meters (13 feet) on some parts of the north coast of the Noto Peninsula,” said Eric Fielding, a geophysicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “The uplift is large because the fault ruptured close to the surface—at a depth of about 10 kilometers (6 miles). It occurred on a fault with a steep dip angle, and the south side of the fault moved upward—what we call a thrust earthquake.”Earthquakes occur at a variety of depths. Those that occur between 0 to 70 kilometers are shallow, between 70 and 300 kilometers are intermediate, and between 300 and 700 kilometers are deep. Earthquakes that occur at shallow depths, like this one, tend to be more destructive because theseismic waves generated have less time to lose energy as they travel from the source of a quake to the surface.The map is based on data from the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis(ARIA) team at JPL and the California Institute of Technology’s Seismological Laboratory, a team that develops state-of-the-art deformation measurements, change detection methods, and physical models for use in hazards science and response. The ARIA team used synthetic aperture radar data from the PALSAR-2 sensor on the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s ALOS-2 (Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2) and a pixel offset tracking technique to measure surface displacement in the line-of-sight between the ground and the satellite.Additional analysis of ALOS-2 observations by scientists from the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan indicates that the earthquake uplifted land along 85 kilometers (52 miles) of coastline. It shifted the location of the coastline roughly 200 meters seaward at Minazuki Bay, one of the areas that saw the most uplift. They also reported a large amount of uplift and new land in Waijma and Nafune. Goto Hideaki, a geomorphologist from Hiroshima University, with colleagues from the Association for Japanese Geographers, used aerial photographs and satellite data to estimate that the quake exposed a total of 4.4 square kilometers of land along the coasts of the Nota Peninsula.Some of the coastline changes around Minazuki Bay are visible in the pair of Landsat images above. The image on the left, from the OLI-2(Operational Land Imager-2) on Landsat 9 was acquired on January 10, 2022, before the earthquake. The image on the right, from OLI (Operational Land Imager) was acquired on January 17, 2024, after the event. The bay hosts two small fishing ports that were left much higher and drier than usual. More than 15 fishing ports in Ishikawa Prefecture reported uplift, according to The Asashi Shimbun.

Scientists discover the moon is shrinking, causing landslides and instability in lunar south pole - Earth's moon shrank more than 150 feet in circumference as its core gradually cooled over the last few hundred million years. In much the same way a grape wrinkles when it shrinks down to a raisin, the moon also develops creases as it shrinks. But unlike the flexible skin on a grape, the moon's surface is brittle, causing faults to form where sections of crust push against one another. A team of scientists discovered evidence that this continuing shrinkage of the moonled to notable surface warping in its south polar region—including areas that NASA proposed for crewed Artemis III landings. Because fault formation caused by the moon's shrinking is often accompanied by seismic activity like moonquakes, locations near or within such fault zones could pose dangers to future human exploration efforts.In a paper published in The Planetary Science Journal, the team linked a group of faults located in the moon's south polar region to one of the most powerful moonquakes recorded by Apollo seismometers over 50 years ago. Using models to simulate the stability of surface slopes in the region, the team found that some areas were particularly vulnerable to landslides from seismic shaking."Our modeling suggests that shallow moonquakes capable of producing strong ground shaking in the south polar region are possible from slip events on existing faults or the formation of new thrust faults," "The global distribution of young thrust faults, their potential to be active and the potential to form new thrust faults from ongoing global contraction should be considered when planning the location and stability of permanent outposts on the moon."Shallow moonquakes occur near the surface of the moon, just a hundred or so miles deep into the crust. Similar to earthquakes, shallow moonquakes are caused by faults in the moon's interior and can be strong enough to damage buildings, equipment and other human-made structures.But unlike earthquakes, which tend to last only a few seconds or minutes, shallow moonquakes can last for hours and even a whole afternoon—like the magnitude 5 moonquake recorded by the Apollo Passive Seismic Network in the 1970s, which the research team connected to a group of faults detected by theLunar Reconnaissance Orbiter more recently.

Complex filament eruption produced Earth-directed CME, impact expected late January 22 - (video) A coronal mass ejection produced by a filament eruption on January 20, 2024, is expected to reach Earth late January 22, producing G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storming.A complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 began at around 08:48 UTC on January 20, 2024, as seen in NASA SDO 304 imagery. This event produced a long-duration C3.5 solar flare which peaked at 09:34 UTC.The subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME), first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 09:12 UTC on January 20, appeared to have three fronts; to the east, southeast, and south-southwest.Early analysis suggests a portion of this CME will arrive late in the UTC day on January 22.Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on January 21 due to positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. A stronger enhancement is likely beginning late on January 22 through 23 due to the anticipated arrival of the aforementioned CME.As a result, SWPC issued a Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Watch at 07:53 UTC today, with G2 – Moderate conditions expected on January 22 and 23.Potential impacts: The area of impact is primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

• Induced currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
• Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
• Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
• Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Geomagnetic storm watch issued; northern lights could come to these states - — A geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for Monday and Tuesday this week after an eruption of solar material was detected early Sunday morning. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) warned about the eruption, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME) in a post to X. While “the general public does not need to be concerned,” the agency notes the CME could lead to the northern lights being visible across a handful of states in the coming days. The northern lights, otherwise known as the aurora, are often associated with CMEs. CMEs are explosions of plasma and magnetic material from the sun that can reach Earth in as little as 15 to 18 hours, NOAA explains. According to NASA, CMEs can create currents in Earth’s magnetic fields that send particles to the North and South Poles. When those particles interact with oxygen and nitrogen, they can create auroras. “It’s essentially the Sun shooting a magnet out into space,” Bill Murtagh, program coordinator for the SWPC and seasoned space weather forecaster, previously told Nexstar. “That magnet impacts Earth’s magnetic field and we get this big interaction.” That interaction is known as a geomagnetic storm. The strength of the geomagnetic storm will impact how far south the northern lights will be visible. To signify the strength of geomagnetic storms, the SWPC uses a 5-point scale. At the lowest end is G1, which is described as minor storms that can lead to aurora being visible in Maine and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. A G5 storm, described as extreme, could send the northern lights as far south as Florida and southern Texas. The impending storm the SWPC warned about Sunday is currently forecasted as a G2 moderate storm. This means states along the Canadian border, as well as a few more, have the greatest chance of seeing the aurora. For Sunday night, those in Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have a low likelihood at seeing the aurora. Those living as far south as northern Wyoming, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine do still have a chance to see the aurora on the northern horizon — that’s denoted with the red line on the map below.

Solar filament eruption produces Earth-directed CME - An approximately 25 degrees in length solar filament centered near S35W09 began erupting after 09:00 UTC on January 22, 2024, producing an Earth-directed CME. The estimated time of arrival is January 25. Solar activity reached high levels on January 22 with numerous C- and M-class solar flares, primarily from active regions 3559 (beta-gamma) and 3561 (beta). At around 09:50 UTC on January 22, a 25-degree solar filament began lifting off the Sun’s southern hemisphere, releasing a notable coronal mass ejection (CME). According to SWPC forecasters, the CME is expected to reach Earth on January 25. While this event is still being analyzed, it is possible enough plasma was ejected our way to produce G1 or stronger geomagnetic storms. YouTube video. Additionally, an impulsive M5.1 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3559 (beta-gamma) at 03:31 UTC on January 23, 2024. There were no radio emissions suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during the flare event. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Australia and far SE Asia. Active Region 3559 has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more moderate to strong solar flares. In addition, it is currently in a geoeffective position so any CMEs produced by it today and in the days ahead could be Earth-directed. The region was the source of numerous C- and several M-class solar flares since January 22, including M1.5 and M1.2. Active Region 3561 (beta) has also been contributing with C- and M-class flares since yesterday, including M2.0 and M3.4. In total, there were 10 M-class solar flares from 06:22 UTC on January 22 to 08:22 UTC on January 23. All of them were produced by regions 3559 and 3561. Periods of G1 – G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on January 23 due to the anticipated passage of a CME that left the Sun on January 20. Quiet and unsettled levels are expected on January 24 due to waning CME influences.

Asteroid 2024 BX1 (Sar2736) impacts Earth’s atmosphere over Berlin, Germany - the 8th predicted impact on record - The Watchers A small asteroid designated 2024 BX1 (temporary designation Sar2736) impacted Earth’s atmosphere near Berlin, Germany at 00:33 UTC on January 21, 2024. This asteroid was discovered about 3 hours before impact, making it the 8^th asteroid to be discovered before impacting Earth.The object belonged to the Apollo class of Asteroids and had an estimated diameter between 0.7 and 1.6 m (2.23 – 5.2 feet).2024 BX1 was discovered about 150 minutes before impact by astronomer Krisztián Sárneczky at GINOP-KHK, Piszkesteto Station in Hungary.This is the third discovery of Earth’s impactor made by Sárneczky. His previous discoveries were 2022 EB2 which impacted Earth’s atmosphere southwest of Jan Mayen island in the Arctic Ocean on March 21, 2022, and 2023 CX1 which impacted over the English Channel, between England and France on February 13, 2023.Asteroid 2024 BX1 disintegrated just west of Berlin but it’s likely some pieces of it survived the entry.

• #Asteroid 2024 BX1 was first discovered by @sarneczky at Piszkéstető Station in Hungary about 3 hours before it burned up over Germany. Shortly after, multiple observatories in Europe contributed over 180 observations of this asteroid. pic.twitter.com/Gf4THC1Lkw— Tony Dunn (@tony873004) January 21, 2024
• Thanks to my wonderful colleague @allplanets I knew where and when to look for a #meteor coming down over #Berlin tonight. Here's the video! pic.twitter.com/kBhGz6AhirMichael Aye (@michaelaye@mastodon.online) (@michaelaye) January 21, 2024

The 1.5-degree climate goal may be ‘deader than a doornail,’ and scientists are bitterly divided over it — For years, the fight against climate change has been symbolized by one number: 1.5. Ever since countries agreed in 2015 to an ambition of restricting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the number has become synonymous with staving off catastrophic climate change. But what if the battle to keep global warming from overshooting this limit has already been lost? Some prominent scientists argue it has and it’s irresponsible to sugarcoat the truth. For others, that view is not only wrong, but even “dangerous.” It was the renowned climate scientist James Hansen whose comments fueled the debate. In November, he declared the 1.5 degree-limit “deader than a doornail,” saying it was a shortcoming of the scientific community “to not make clear to the political leaders what the situation is.”The rate of global warming is accelerating, he said at a news conference in November, and the world is certain to blow past 1.5 degrees of warming. “Anybody who understands the physics knows that.” Hansen’s words have heft — he is widely credited as the first scientist to publicly sound the alarm on climate change in the 1980s. But other scientists have pushed back hard. “I’ve got three degrees in physics, and I can tell you that Jim is wrong,” said Michael Mann, a leading climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, referring to Hansen. The problem isn’t physics, it’s politics, he told CNN. “And political obstacles can be overcome.” The response from Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, was even blunter. “I think that’s a very stupid thing to say,” she told reporters in November. “At the moment, (1.5 degrees) is within reach and to pretend it’s not will just lead to doing nothing even longer.”Disagreements over climate science are not uncommon — our planet is a highly complex system, and the nature of reaching consensus typically starts with scientists who disagree.But as global warming fuels extreme weather — like heat waves, cyclones and even fierce winter storms, such as those that have torn through parts of the United States — the debate over the future of 1.5 is getting unusually heated.As many parts of the US and Europe deal with an Arctic blast of brutally cold air, it can be hard to recall just how hot 2023 was. Last year saw unprecedented global temperatures, with heat records around the world tumbling.El Niño — a natural climate phenomenon that tends to boost the planet’s average temperature — collided with the long-term trend of global warming, making 2023 the hottest year on record. The year came within a whisker of breaching 1.5 degrees, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service.While scientists are most concerned about long-term warming over many years, not just one, 2023’s record heat was a stark warning sign. If the world breaches 1.5 degrees over the long term, scientists say the impacts of climate change will start to exceed the ability of humans and ecosystems to adapt. But every fraction of a degree matters, and climate chaos is already emerging. “It’s not that before 1.5 everything’s fine and after 1.5 an asteroid will fall on our heads,” Otto told CNN. Keeping warming below 1.5 degrees is not a physical threshold, but a political goal, she said.

IMF Head Tells The Little People To Pipe Down And Get Behind Carbon Tax -- The annual World Economic Forum conferences held in Davos, Switzerland, each year never fail to give all us little people a clear preview of the things the world’s globalist elites want to do to us — not for us, but to us — across the coming 12 months and beyond. Speakers in the event’s myriad sessions invariably lay out an array of freedom-crushing and spirit-destroying plans designed to force us all to live smaller, less-mobile, less-prosperous lives, all in the name of climate change or any other global cause that can serve as a justification for the implementation of Klaus Schwab’s preferred authoritarian socialist system. The supposed theme of this year’s WEF event was supposedly, “Restoring Trust.” That at least shows the people who style themselves as our globalist betters possess some modicum of self-awareness, given the reality of how they have destroyed any trust at all in what they’re doing among the segment of the world’s population with functioning BS detectors. But while the event’s theme indicates some understanding of this inconvenient reality, a dig into the details betrays the same old authoritarian spirit prevailing unabated. There was John Kerry, as usual droning on about the urgent need to stop using fossil fuels, a move that will inevitably leave billions in developing nations without access to adequate power. There was WEF Chairman Klaus Schwab, doing his best Bond villain imitation as he praised attendees for their fealty to this plan for a “great reset.” There was U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, chatting openly with WEF President Borge Brende about the need to hasten the national sovereignty-destroying “new world order.” Truly, the more these zealots fail to achieve their goals, the more they double- and triple-down on the same awful ideas. Another prominent speaker pushing another awful idea was IMF head Kristalina Georgieva. Ms. Georgieva appeared to have a multi-pronged assignment at this year’s festival consisting of comforting attendees that the world appears to be “poised for a soft landing,” while at the same time warning that elections are somehow a bad thing economically. “This is going to be a very tough year, because fiscal policy has to rebuild buffers and deal with the debt that was accumulated in many countries,” Georgieva said in an interviewconducted prior to arriving at the conference. “About 80 countries are going to have elections, and we know what happens with pressure on spending during election cycles.” Then, in her address to the conference , she railed against what climate zealots refer to as “fossil fuel subsidies,” the vast majority of which is simply a tabulation of the very same business tax treatments available to every other business sector — common accounting items like deductions for depreciation and cost of goods sold. Her claim that these “subsidies” amount to $1.3 trillion globally is ludicrous on its face, but that didn’t stop her from making it. Then, in her next breath, she advocated for the global collective cancel them and replace them with the most economy-killing idea currently in vogue — a tax on carbon. “Put it back to support climate action. We cannot accelerate decarbonization fast enough without pricing carbon, with a predictable increase of the carbon price. It has to be USD 85 by 2030,” she asserted. This is just pure economic sophistry. Any tax on any business engaged in the selling of any good or service will ultimately be paid by the consumer. This is just an inescapable reality of life – it is no secret. Well, apparently to anyone other than the global elites and heads of the World Bank, that is. Georgieva is utterly dismissive of any of the little people who complain about this, though. “I am sick and tired of listening to people saying, ‘My g*d it’s so expensive, where are we going to find the money” she said, adding, “Let’s get to bringing in the money from where it hurts and putting it to where it helps.”

NIPSCO, Linde to pay $66.7M to settle charges for gaming MISO demand response program — Northern Indiana Public Service Co. and Linde Inc., the U.S. subsidiary of U.K.-based chemical company Linde, will pay $66.7 million to settle charges related to manipulating the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s demand response program under an agreement approved by federal regulators last week. Linde Inc., which owns an air separation facility in Indiana with up to 330 MW of load, will disgorge $48.5 million and pay a penalty of $10.5 million, according to the Thursday order from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. NIPSCO, a NiSource utility, agreed to disgorge and refund to its customers $7.7 million related to gains it made from Linde Inc.’s participation in MISO’s demand response program. NIPSCO was the “market participant” for Linde Inc. in the program. Linde Inc.’s Calumet Area Pipeline Operations Center, which distills gasses such as oxygen, nitrogen and argon from the atmosphere, is a demand response resource in MISO’s day-ahead and real-time energy markets, FERC said in its decision. Linde Inc. submitted its demand response offers in MISO’s day-ahead market via NIPSCO. NIPSCO collects an administrative fee equal to 5% of Linde Inc.’s demand response revenue and a charge for foregone sales for periods when the facility acts as a demand response asset. As the market participant, NIPSCO is responsible for Linde Inc.’s conduct, according to FERC. MISO pays so-called DRR-1 assets, such as the Calumet facility, for the difference between a unit’s baseline energy use and its actual load, according to FERC. FERC’s enforcement office contends that Linde Inc. manipulated its baseline settings during a 5-year period starting in August 2017 to create an artificially high baseline. In that time, the company would then collect demand response payments by operating the facility at its planned levels, which were below the manipulated baseline, according to the enforcement office. Also, starting in 2020, Linde Inc. adopted an “enhanced” DRR-1 strategy by operating certain equipment solely to increase its electricity use to raise its baseline, according to FERC. Linde Inc. vented to the atmosphere the gasses it distilled under the strategy, the agency said. “Enforcement concludes that this conduct violated … the MISO tariff because Linde did not ‘respond to [MISO] directives to ... change output levels’ by reducing its load below what it would otherwise have been,” FERC said. To cover the amounts it paid out to Linde Inc. and NIPSCO, MISO assessed charges to certain market participants in its footprint, including the utility, according to the commission. NIPSCO paid the largest share of those charges and passed them on to its customers, FERC said.

EU Needs to Double Power Generation by 2040 to Meet Net Zero: Commission --The European Union estimates it will need to more than double its electricity generation by the middle of the century and boost renewables to reach its ambitious goal of climate neutrality. To pursue emissions reduction targets recommended by scientists for the next decade, power production will need to increase to 5,212 terawatt-hours by 2040, from 2,905 TWh in 2021, according to an analysis done by the European Commission. Output would need to further expand to 6,922 TWh by 2050 as consumers increasingly rely on electric vehicles and turn to power for home heating, while utilities use more renewables as an energy source. The commission, the EU’s executive arm, is currently drafting a climate roadmap for 2040 and is set to recommend a 90 percent pollution cut from 1990 levels. The building blocks for the planned target include further growth of renewables, energy savings and accelerated use of green technologies. “The coming decades require a significant increase in electricity supply, mainly due to the increasing electrification of end-use sectors,” the EC said in its study on the impacts of the new goal, which was seen by Bloomberg News. The need to power green energy initiatives such as renewable fuels and direct-air carbon capture will also add to electricity demand. The blueprint for the next decade is set to be adopted on Feb. 6, marking the first stage of a debate with member states on how to design future policies and objectives. The EU has a policy of not commenting on unpublished documents. The new target recommended by the commission, which would be in line with advice from its scientific board on climate, will require average annual investment in the energy system of around EUR1.5 trillion ($1.6 trillion), according to the study. In the so-called impact assessment, the commission said that the accelerated deployment of clean technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels and batteries also means the EU will require a huge ramp-up in supplies of critical raw materials. Under the scenario of a 90 percent-95 percent pollution cut, the bloc will need up to 500,000 tons of copper each year in the decade through 2040, including 125,000 tons for wind alone, the commission estimated. That compares with global copper demand of 26 million tons in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency. Lithium Demand Batteries for electric vehicles and stationary batteries would require up to 80,000 tons of lithium and 60,000 tons of cobalt per year, the commission said. Global lithium demand in 2022 was 130,000 tons, and cobalt demand was around 200,000 tons, it said. The EU currently has a binding goal of cutting greenhouse gases by at least 55 percent by 2030. Keeping its green measures unchanged, the 27-nation bloc would lower its discharges by 88 percent in 2040, according to the impact assessment.

Columbus electric customers to see higher bills after city renegotiates green energy deal — Columbus Dispatch -- Nearly 200,000 customers participating in Columbus, Ohio’s clean energy aggregation program will see rate increases despite an initial contract locking in costs long term.

Neighbors worry about flooding from Nestlewood Solar: ‘We’re going to lose our property because of this’ — WCPO — Many neighbors of the Nestlewood Solar Facility near Hammersville in Clermont County have complained about flooding and standing water after heavy rains this week.The controversial project has divided this farming community. Many residents leased their land to Texas-based Vesper Energy for an 80-megawatt solar facility where corn and soybeans were once farmed on more than 600 acres on the Clermont and Brown county lines.Outrage over the project led Tate Township trustees to ban future large-scale solar projects.Then Clermont County Commissioners approved a ban of large solar and wind farms in seven townships last summer after enraged residents called the Nestlewood project almost 700 acres of pure hell.The solar issue launched political activism in the rural township, and propelled farmer and tree service owner, Rusty Durbin, to run for trustee and win last November on an anti-large-scale solar platform.

U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil sues activist investors to prevent climate proposals- Exxon Mobil filed a lawsuit against U.S. and Dutch activist investors in a bid to stop them from submitting climate proposals during the oil giant’s annual shareholder meeting. It marks a first for the U.S. oil major and is the latest step in an intensifying battle between companies and environmental campaigners. The complaint was filed Sunday in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas against Massachusetts-based investment firm Arjuna Capital and Follow This, an Amsterdam-based activist investor group. An Exxon Mobil win in the proceedings could have a chilling impact on future shareholder petitions. The Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.S. financial regulator, has overseen a growing number of environmental and social shareholder proposals during the past two proxy seasons. In an emailed statement, Exxon Mobil said, “the breakdown of the shareholder proposal process, one that allows proponents to advance their agendas through a flood of proposals, does not serve the interests of investors.” The company added, “We are simply asking the court to apply the SEC’s proxy rules as written to stop this abuse and eliminate the significant resources required to address them.” The oil major has accused Arjuna Capital and Follow This of being driven by an “extreme agenda” and claimed they both submit shareholder proposals to undermine the firm’s business. In its filing, Exxon Mobil said that it requires relief from the court by March 19, because it must file its proxy statement by April 11. The Houston-based firm is scheduled to hold its annual shareholder meeting on May 29. “With this remarkable step, ExxonMobil clearly wants to prevent shareholders using their rights,” Mark van Baal said in a statement. “Apparently, the board fears shareholders will vote in favour of emissions reductions targets.” He added, “Maybe they see the writing on the wall.” Follow This said that it and Arjuna Capital filed a proposal, commonly referred to as a climate resolution, for Exxon Mobil’s upcoming annual meeting in compliance with their shareholder rights and SEC regulations. Arjuna Capital did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment. Exxon Mobil says that it supports measures to reduce emissions and that the lawsuit is not specific to environmental, social and corporate governance. It adds that the lawsuit intends to fix what the oil major describes as a broken process that the company holds is being abused.

Illinois lands $14.9M federal grant to expand electric vehicle charging network — Electric vehicle charging stations will be installed in 273 new locations across Illinois thanks to a $14.9 million federal grant, officials announced Thursday. The new sites will add a total of 845 publicly accessible chargers, including 36 fast-charging stations, through a competitive grant awarded to Illinois by the U.S. Department of Transportation. “As Illinois moves toward a clean energy future, it is imperative that no communities are left behind,” Gov. J.B. Pritzker said in a statement. “This investment from our partners at the federal level will ensure Illinois has the resources to make electric vehicles accessible to all our residents.”The state currently has 1,249 public charging locations with a total of 3,278 ports, according to the latest tally by the U.S. Department of Energy. Pritzker’s office said the new charging locations “aren’t locked in yet,” but 43% were earmarked for “disadvantaged community projects” and 63% percent were designated for “dense urban communities with a high percentage of multi-family housing,” including rural areas and small towns.

New nuclear power ‘necessary’ to meet Michigan’s climate goals — A new state report says additional nuclear power generation will be needed in Michigan to meet new state climate goals. The Michigan Public Service Commission’s nuclear feasibility study group on Tuesday detailed the draft report ordered last year by state lawmakers. The report’s conclusion is that new and continuing nuclear power generation “will be necessary” to achieve benchmarks set by recently adopted clean energy legislation.

Utilities don’t want to answer questions about OVEC’s finances or generation strategy — Ohio consumer advocates and major utility customers want the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio to disclose more information from the audit into the effects of Ohio’s scandal-plagued HB 6 law. The Ohio Consumers’ Counsel and major consumers, including grocery giant Kroger, filed motions with PUCO this week seeking the end to the protective order granted last July that redacted key parts of the audit into the effects of HB 6. The law requires Ohio electricity customers to subsidize the operations of two coal-fired power plants owned by the Ohio Valley Electric Corp. (OVEC).“The PUCO must now decide whether the public has a right to know information about the H.B. 6 subsidies that relate back to a 2021 audit report issued by the PUCO-appointed auditor,” says the motion filed by the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel. “The answer should be yes, the public has a right to know. The PUCO should lift the shroud of secrecy the utilities have insisted upon over the last two years.”OVEC is owned by a consortium of utilities known as “sponsoring companies.”“Each Sponsoring Company bears its own burden of proof to demonstrate that the costs it incurred during the Audit Period related to the continued operation of the OVEC coal plants, as well as its actions, were reasonable, prudent, and in the best interests of customers,” said the motion by the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association Energy Group and the Kroger Co.Many of the details removed from the public version of the audit by London Economics International (LEI) were already public information, including the name of the company that has been overpaid for the coal it supplied OVEC.Checks & Balances Project has reported that the redactions made by the protective order hid the identity of Resource Fuels, the Columbus-based coal company that made $12.6 million more for the coal it supplied OVEC in 2020 than another company that provided more coal to OVEC from the same mine.Resource Fuels and its owner, Wayne Boich, were some of the earliest donors to the dark-money political fund that bribed former Ohio House speaker Larry Householder to pass HB 6 in 2019. Householder is now serving a 20-year federal prison sentence for his role in the HB 6 scandal.

How a Koch-linked group stalled a bipartisan Ohio energy efficiency bill at the last minute — A bipartisan energy efficiency bill was indefinitely delayed last fall amid a clash between a major conservative lobbying group and one of the state’s most prominent Republican lawmakers, according to previously unreported emails obtained by the Energy News Network. Just before an expected vote to let Ohio utilities offer voluntary energy saving programs to customers, the Ohio chapter of Americans for Prosperity issued a “key vote alert” on Oct. 9, encouraging state House leadership to pull the bill and urging members to vote “no” if it came to the floor. “[T]he last thing Ohioans need is another mandatory program being foisted upon them,” said the alert. But the programs allowed by the bill would be voluntary, and in addition to that mischaracterization, the group claimed they could cost consumers five times more than what the bill would let utilities charge. House Majority Floor Leader Bill Seitz, a Cincinnati Republican and major critic of the state’s former energy efficiency standard, is a co-sponsor of the bipartisan bill, House Bill 79. He pounced on the obvious math error in his reply. “For this egregious error alone, their entire screed should be disregarded,” Seitz wrote in a response shared with House Republican caucus members. “They have not even passed the third grade guarantee!” The exchange, which Seitz recently shared with the Energy News Network, offers a glimpse at the continued, prominent role of conservative lobbying groups in shaping Ohio energy policy. Rulings by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio haveblocked utilities from offering programs to help customers save energy after the state’s previous energy efficiency targets were gutted by the scandal-tainted House Bill 6 in 2019. . HB 79 would let regulated utilities voluntarily reintroduce such programs, subject to lower targets, cost caps and requirements for the programs to save money. The bill would also require utilities offering energy efficiency programs to provide ratepayers with opportunities to opt out. The bipartisan bill was reported out f

Ohio Supreme Court: Ex-regulator’s assets can be frozen in connection with FirstEnergy case — The Ohio Supreme Court unanimously ruled Tuesday that assets owned by the former head of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio can be frozen in connection with a federal public corruption case.Sam Randazzo’s bank accounts and brokerage accounts can now be frozen, according to a ruling by the state’s highest court that reversed an appeals court decision. This keeps Randazzo from moving money out of his accounts as the state’s civil action continues to recover proceeds from an alleged bribe given by FirstEnergy Corporation.The case came to the Ohio Supreme Court almost exactly one year ago, when the state said the case arose “from a brazen conspiracy perpetrated by an energy conglomerate, FirstEnergy Corp., to defraud Ohioans out of billions of dollars,” Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost told the court at the time.FirstEnergy was the company at the heart of a public bribery and corruption scandal related to House Bill 6, which eventually took down former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, who wasconvicted and sentenced to 20 years in federal prison for racketeering.In the sentencing of Householder, U.S. District Judge Timothy Black called out Householder for leading a scandal in which FirstEnergy poured out more than $59 million in political bribes for a nuclear plant bailout in Northern Ohio costing $1.3 billion.The Randazzo civil case involves a $4.3 million bribe FirstEnergy said it paid to the former PUCO chair through his company, Sustainability Funding Alliance of Ohio, Inc., just before he started at the commission. Randazzo was appointed to the commission by Gov. Mike DeWine, Justice Pat DeWine’s father.“The state claims that this payment was allegedly in exchange for Randazzo promising to give favorable treatment to FirstEnergy as PUCO chairman,” Justice DeWine wrote as the lead in the supreme court’s Tuesday opinion.This comes after Ohio sued FirstEnergy in Sept. 2020 in connection with bribery and corruption, a lawsuit that was held up by federal criminal litigation. The company then entered an agreement with the U.S. Attorney’s Office, and the agreement “revealed Randazzo’s role in the corruption scheme,” wrote Justice DeWine in the Tuesday opinion.The state sued Randazzo in 2021 to freeze assets and “preserve the future sale of property,” according to a Tuesday statement from the Ohio Attorney General’s Office.When the state argued to seize Randazzo’s financial accounts before a judgment was leveled in the case against him, attorneys said there was “probable cause that (the state) would obtain a money judgment against Randazzo.”“It pointed to the FBI’s raid of Randazzo’s home in late 2020 (shortly after which Randazzo resigned from his position at PUCO) and FirstEnergy’s essentially admitting to bribing Randazzo in the deferred-prosecution agreement,” Justice DeWine wrote on behalf of the court.After the FBI raided Randazzo’s house, evidence showed he transferred a house valued at more than $500,000 to his son without charge, sold two Florida properties for about $4 million, and also sold two Ohio properties for about $800,000.“This pattern, the state claimed, indicated a ‘present danger’ that Randazzo was attempting to transfer assets to make them unreachable by a judgment creditor,” DeWine wrote.In a separate court case, Randazzo was indicted on Nov. 29, 2023 by a federal grand jury on felony criminal bribery and embezzlement charges.He pleaded not guilty in December after surrendering to U.S. District Court in Cincinnati on the 11-count indictment.

Commission claims court can’t review decisions on drilling under Ohio park and wildlife areas - Ohio Capital Journal -- An Ohio commission is arguing its decisions last fall to allow oil and gas drilling under a state park and two wildlife areas are final and cannot be appealed. Environmental groups challenging the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission say it failed to follow state law when it approved land parcels for leasing of drilling rights at Salt Fork State Park, Zepernick Wildlife Area and Valley Run Wildlife Area. Among other things, state law says the commission must consider nine factors in reaching its decisions, including environmental impacts, consequences for visitors or users of state lands, public comments or objections, economic issues, and others. State lawyers have filed a motion to dismiss, claiming the court can’t review the decisions because the statute doesn’t expressly provide for judicial review. The plaintiffs seeking to overturn the decisions, though, say the commission’s actions affect their rights and amounted to licensing, which can be appealed under the Ohio Revised Code. “Our courts play a critical role in overseeing agency decisions to make sure agencies do not abuse the discretion and power the law gives them. Our lawsuit asks that the court provide that critical oversight here,” said Megan Hunter, an attorney with Earthjustice, on behalf of the plaintiffs. Those environmental groups are Save Ohio Parks, the Ohio Environmental Council, the Buckeye Environmental Network and Backcountry Hunters and Anglers. “Ohio statute has set up a system where an oil and gas company can hand-select those public lands it wants to lease and ask the commission for permission to move forward with the process for it to do so,” Hunter added. “The law places the commission in a gatekeeping role, making them the ones to determine whether an oil and gas company should be able to lease a particular state park or wildlife area.” And while a winning bidder has to apply for permits to drill, Ohioans generally have no right to appeal permitting decisions, she said. “Therefore, the appeal from the nominations is when there is an opportunity for judicial review of the decision to drill under these state lands.” Commission chair Ryan Richardson admitted that the commission would need to consider the nine statutory criteria in a Nov. 2 affidavit filed in a related case. Yet the commissioners did not discuss all nine factors at the public meeting where they voted to grant the proposals. Nor did they provide any written opinion explaining how they weighed the nine criteria. “This is not the way justice is supposed to happen in Ohio or anywhere else in a democracy,” said Melinda Zemper, a member of Save Ohio Parks.The case is further complicated by the commission’s insistence on moving ahead before the Ohio Attorney General’s office resolves an investigation into claims about allegedly falsified comments that favored fracking under state parks and wildlife areas. “The [commission’s] decision to approve fracking in Ohio parks undermines core principles of good governance, for it occurred despite an ongoing investigation and enormous public pushback,” said Chris Tavenor, associate general counsel and managing director of democracy policy for the Ohio Environmental Council. The decisions also mean Ohio will be a less healthy place to live and have more greenhouse gas emissions, he said. As of 2021, the Energy Information Administration ranked Ohio fifth among states for total carbon dioxide emissions, he noted. The commission’s failure to let citizens testify at its meetings also undermined the trust of Ohio citizens and denied them their rights to participate in the process, said Loraine McCosker, a co-founder and member of Save Ohio Parks. A separate lawsuit challenges the constitutionality of House Bill 507, which jump-started the challenged decisions, but where citizen groups had no chance to testify against its natural gas provisions after they were added through last-minute amendments in late 2022. The appeal doesn’t automatically stay the public bidding period for the drilling rights, which began Jan. 3 and runs through Feb. 4. Spokesperson Andy Chow said the commission does not comment on pending litigation. However, he noted, the commission is currently working to schedule its next meeting to decide on the winning bids. Once companies have secured drilling rights, they would be free to apply for permits to drill wells. Ohio law generally provides up to 21 days for review of those applications, except for urban areas, where a 30-day review period applies. The average review time generally has been running 15 to 18 days, Chow said. So, barring any stay from a court, well construction could start as early as this spring.

Antis Have No Right to Appeal Decision to Drill Under State Parks - Marcellus Drilling News --Anti-fossil fuel fanatics in Ohio (and beyond) still can’t accept that they lost a battle to block drilling under (not on) Ohio state-owned land, including some Ohio state parks. In November, the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met in a public forum and voted to allow shale drilling under three state-owned tracts of land: (1) all 20,000 acres of Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County, (2) more than 300 acres of Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County, and (3) 66 acres of the Zepernick Wildlife Area in Columbiana County (see OGLMC Votes to Allow Fracking Under Ohio’s Salt Fork State Park). The vote precipitated a panic attack among the environment left. Earthjustice and the Ohio Environmental Council (disgusting leftwing green groups) filed a lawsuit in Franklin County Common Pleas Court appealing the OGLMC’s action (see Big Green Sues to Block Drilling Under (Not On) Ohio State Parks). One teeny, tiny problem for the wackos: The new law that empowers the OGLMC to do the leasing does not contain a provision to appeal their decisions to a court.

OH Supremes Revive Lawsuit Against ODNR for Closing Injection Well - Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a story we haven’t written about in over three years. American Water Management Services (AWMS) owns a wastewater injection well in Trumbull County that supposedly caused a low-level earthquake (that nobody could feel) in 2014. Actually, there are two injection wells located at the site, both operated by AWMS. They were both “temporarily” shut down by the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources following the quake nobody could feel (see ODNR Temporarily Shuts Down Injection Wells After Low-Level Quake). ODNR allowed AWMS to reopen one of the injection wells but denied it the right to reopen the second well. AWMS appealed the closure of the second well all the way to the Ohio Supreme Court in 2018.

Ohio Supreme Court finds appeals court in Warren was wrong to dismiss Weathersfield injection well case - An Ohio Supreme Court ruling issued on Wednesday could be a step toward resolving a long legal battle over how much, if any money is owed by the state to the owner of a Trumbull County brine injection well that was ordered closed following an earthquake. Justices on the state’s highest court unanimously ruled that the Eleventh District Court of Appeals, based in Warren, failed to follow earlier instructions from the Ohio Supreme Court in the case filed by AWMS Water Solutions against the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. AWMS has been arguing that ODNR in effect “took” its property when it suspended the operation of one of its injection wells along Route 169 in 2014 following seismic activity near the well site. The well owner argues that it invested $5.6 million into the wells and was unable to reap the profits from its operation. In a 2021 ruling, the appellate court dismissed the case, agreeing with the ODNR’s argument that AWMS had a lease to dispose of waste, and was not considered to be a property qualified for compensation. In Wednesday’s opinion, the Supreme Court states that it had already previously ruled that AWMS did have a property interest in its lease and that the duty of the appeals court was to weigh the evidence to consider how much money, if any, the state owes AWMS. “By deciding the case in this manner, the court ventured beyond the scope of our remand order,” the opinion stated. The opinion stated that it is hard to understand how the appeals court could rule that AWMS did not have an interest that entitled it to compensation without doing the takings analysis that the appeals court was ordered to do. The case is again being sent back to the appeals court where judges have been ordered to weigh the evidence to determine whether the well owner suffered a total taking of the property involved.

Appeals Court Failed to Follow Orders When Reconsidering Wastewater Well Closure - An appeals court failed to follow instructions from the Supreme Court of Ohio when considering the case of a wastewater well operator that was shut down for potentially causing earthquakes in Trumbull County.In a unanimous per curiam opinion, the Supreme Court today stated that the Eleventh District Court of Appeals ignored the high court’s directive to “weigh the parties'evidence ” to determine if the state should compensate AWMS Water Solutions for suspending its permits to operate in Weatherfield Township.In 2014, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) suspended the operation of one of two AWMS wells. The wells were used to inject waste fluid from the oil and natural gas drilling process of hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking. ODNR suspended the operations when seismic activity was recorded near AWMS well #2, which is close to the city of Niles.A protracted legal battle led to a 2020 Supreme Court decision regarding AWMS’claim that the state’s actions amounted to a “taking” of its property under the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. AWMS argued that it was entitled to compensation from ODNR for improperly shutting down the wells and hindering the company’s ability to reopen. The Supreme Court did not definitively decide whether AWMS was owed money but remanded the case to the Eleventh District.After conducting a nine-day trial in 2021, and ordering the parties to file additional briefs, the Eleventh Districtdismissed the case, finding that AWMS was not entitled to compensation. AWMS appealed the decision to the Supreme Court, asserting the appellate court made its decision without following the Supreme Court’s directions. In December 2011, AWMS secured a lease from the owner of 5.2 acres of industrial property in Trumbull County. The lease gave the company the exclusive right to operate disposal wells and install, operate, and maintain infrastructure to facilitate waste disposal from oil and gas drillers. About a week after AWMS applied for permits, a 4.0-magnitude earthquake was recorded a few miles from the AWMS property. The event originated near another deep-well injection site and was felt by more than 4,000 people in parts of northeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and Ontario, Canada. After the earthquake, former Ohio Gov. John Kasich imposed a moratorium on well-injection activities. The moratorium delayed the processing of AWMS’ permits, but the company was authorized to use the two wells in July 2013. AWMS then spent $5.6 million to construct the wells and other infrastructure, including tanks and pumps. ODNR authorized the company to begin wastewater injections in March 2014. Four months later, a 1.7-magnitude earthquake was recorded near well #2, and a month later, a 2.1-magnitude quake was recorded in the same area. ODNR ordered AWMS to suspend its operations of both wells, stating the earthquakes were related to the well operations. The agency later allowed well #1 operations to resume, but not well #2. AWMS sought ODNR permission to restart well #2 but was unsuccessful. In 2016, the company sought a writ of mandamus from the Eleventh District. AWMS wanted the appellate court to order ODNR to start a “property appropriation” proceeding, claiming that the state was, in effect, taking the property of the disposal company but not permitting it to operate. The Eleventh District dismissed the case, finding that ODNR regulation of the facility did not constitute a taking. AWMS appealed to the Supreme Court. In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled there was a “genuine issue of material fact” concerning whether the state’s suspension of AWMS’ operation constituted a taking by depriving the company of all economically beneficial uses of its lease. The Supreme Court remanded the case to the Eleventh District with instructions to weigh the evidence related to AWMS’ claim that the state “totally” took all the economic value of well #2 or “partially” took the value. The Supreme Court directed the Eleventh District to use a process set out by the U.S. Supreme Court to determine if AWMS suffered a partial taking.

‘Black Gold: EOG Resources Drills Gushers in Ohio Utica | Marcellus Drilling News - Perhaps our headline is slightly misleading. EOG is not the modern equivalent of Jed Clampett walking along and seeing crude bubbling up out of the ground (as in the fictionalThe Beverly Hillbillies show of the 1960s with the “Ballad of Jed Clampett” that says, “Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.”). What EOG and other Ohio drillers (like Encino Energy and Ascent Resources) have done is more like rocket science than winning a lottery. The oil has been locked away in the Utica/Point Pleasant shale layer for millennia. Aubrey McClendon, co-founder and former CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was the first to see the vision of freeing oil from the Utica.

Black Gold: Ascent & Encino Drill Oil Gushers in Ohio Utica --Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday we brought you the latest update on EOG Resources’ oil drilling program in the Utica Shale (see Black Gold: EOG Resources Drills Gushers in Ohio Utica). Today we have details about two more companies and their Utica oil drilling programs: Ascent Resources and Encino Energy. Last summer, we told you that Encino, which picked up Chesapeake Energy’s Ohio O&G assets, including 933,000 Ohio acres with 320,000 net Utica acres and 920 operated and non-operated Ohio Utica wells for $2 billion in 2018 (see Stop Press: Chesapeake Sells ALL of its Ohio Utica Assets for $2B), had finally cracked the code on coaxing oil from the Utica Shale (see Oil Prod. in Northern Utica Comes Alive – Encino Cracks Oil Code). Encino is now Ohio’s top oil producer.

20 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 15 – 21 --Marcellus Drilling News - There were 20 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Jan. 15 – 21, versus 24 permits issued during the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 11 new permits last week. Ohio issued 9 new permits. West Virginia had a big, fat zero new permits last week. Ascent Resources scored the most new permits issued, with 5 permits across two counties, Jefferson and Harrison, in Ohio. Encino Energy (EAP in the list) had the second most new permits issued with 4 permits in Harrison County, OH. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CNX RESOURCES | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | EXCO RESOURCES | HARRISON COUNTY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | LYCOMING COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY |WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY

Utilities plan onsite gas storage to improve reliability; critics warn of costs, safety concerns --As the U.S. electric power system has become more reliant on natural gas plants, it’s also become more vulnerable to gas system failures. During Winter Storm Elliott in 2022, about 18% of the anticipated power supply in the portion of the grid that serves the entire eastern half of the United States, called the Eastern Interconnection, was offline. Of the power plants that failed to perform, 47% were natural-gas fired, according to a joint inquiry by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. Natural gas fuel problems accounted for 20% of all generation outages, the report noted.However, in an era when building new gas pipelines, along with other infrastructure, has proven increasingly fraught, some utilities see a solution to gas shortages: adding liquified natural gas storage onsite.Virginia utility giant Dominion Energy is proposing to add liquefied natural gas storage to serve two large power plants it operates near Emporia in southern Virginia. And in South Dakota, Otter Tail Power Company is planning to add gas storage at its Astoria combustion turbine plant in Deuel County. A spokesman for Duke Energy, a large North Carolina-based utility company which was forced to cut power to customers during Elliott last year, said it is “exploring all on-site storage options, including LNG and other alternative fuel storage technologies for future use.” A 2021 study by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University found that storing gas onsite could also yield benefits for electric customers in New England, where gas supply is tight.Some pro-renewable energy analysts, though, are wary about the costs and impacts of adding new gas infrastructure at a time when cutting emissions to mitigate climate change is becoming ever more pressing. There are also safety and environmental concerns. Having backup fuel on site is common at many natural gas power plants, though the go-to option is typically a distillate fuel oil (like diesel), said Michael Caravaggio, director of research and development at the Electric Power Research Institute, an independent nonprofit research organization. The main advantage is ease of storage and management over a long period of time, whereas liquefied natural gas needs to be kept at extremely low temperatures, (about -260 degrees Fahrenheit). That means that adding LNG storage involves either liquefying pipeline gas onsite or transporting LNG in for storage in specialized tanks.“That’s a lot of infrastructure for backup fuel,” Caravaggio said. “The vast majority of the U.S. would likely pencil out with diesel and distillate oil as the onsite backup and that’s what we see currently.”But Bill Swanson, manager of supply operations and planning for Otter Tail Power Company, which has about 133,000 customers in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota, said adding LNG at the company’s 245-megawatt Astoria plant made the most economic sense. Winter Storm Uri in 2021, which sent gas production plummeting, and Elliott last year prompted the company to pursue LNG backup fuel. During Winter Storm Elliott we had a situation where we couldn’t get gas out of the pipeline,” he said.The company explored fuel oil but found it would require modifications to the gas turbine. Burning the oil, he added, also reduces the output of the plant more than 10% and increases emissions.“On an evaluated cost basis, LNG was lower cost,” Swanson said, though when asked he said the total cost of the gas storage project is not public. If Otter Tail had to liquefy the gas onsite instead of trucking it in from a nearby facility, “economics might flow back to fuel oil,” he added.Jeremy Slayton, a spokesman for Richmond-headquartered Dominion Energy, said Elliott, Uri, and the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack in 2021 all underscored the need for backup fuel. The company is proposing to add a 25 million gallon LNG storage facility that will enable its two large combined cycle plants at Brunswick and Greensville to run at full bore for up to four days each. Those plants alone generate enough electricity to power 700,000 of its 2.6 million Virginia customers’ homes.

DTE Gas to recover $49 million in costs from year of skyrocketing prices - – State utility regulators recently approved most of DTE Gas Co.’s requests for its natural gas cost recovery for a past winter’s heating season. The Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) signed off on more than $49 million to be recovered with interest. The agency’s decision last week is related to the company’s contracted use of the NEXUS gas pipeline to bring the fossil fuel from Ohio into Michigan during the 2021-2022 fiscal year.

DEC: Heating oil leaked into Byron Lake from nearby Oakdale home - The state Department of Environmental Conservation and Town of Islip hazmat crews responded to an oil spill in Oakdale Friday that seeped into Byron Lake. The DEC says the spill started in the crawlspace of a home earlier in the week. Robert Abrahamson felt something was off when he smelled what he described as diesel coming from a stream behind his Oakdale home. He says he didn’t think anything of it until Thursday. “The smell just got increasingly worse,” he said. "Then we started seeing hazmat trucks, spill response clean ups down by the lake, Byron Lake. And then I said, oh well something's going on. And then late last night, we saw the trucks over here by the creek." The Department Of Environmental Conservation says a petroleum oil spill started at a home on Lincoln Drive Monday. DEC crews arrived at the home Wednesday and told the homeowner to stop a sump pump from pumping out the nearly 140 gallons of oil onto the street. The oil then found its way into a storm drain, into Byron Lake, and possibly the stream behind Abrahamson’s home. "It's actually gotten worse than it's been yesterday," he said. The DEC said the spill didn’t harm wildlife. Citizens Campaign for the Environment executive director Adrienne Esposito says potential impacts of a spill like this could greatly impact the watershed. "It can kill aquatic plants. It can kill hibernating reptiles, such as turtles, fish, and it’s very difficult to remediate at that point,” she said. “The longer you wait to clean it up, the more damage it does, and the more costly it is.” She says the DEC should’ve responded sooner to prevent potential problems further downstream. "The problem here with Byron Lake is that it is a tributary into the South Shore estuary,” said Esposito. “Once the oil flows into the lake, it's a very good chance it's flowing out into the bay."

US weekly LNG exports drop to 27 cargoes - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decreased in the week ending January 17 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 27 LNG carriers departed the US plants between January 11 and 17, one vessel less compared to the week before. Moreover, the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 99 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals decreased by 15.4 percent (2.3 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 12.5 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 12.9 percent (1.2 Bcf/d) to 8 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased by 18.6 percent (0.8 Bcf/d) to 3.6 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast the decreased 28.8 percent (0.3 Bcf/d) to 0.9 Bcf/d. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the period under review. Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped five LNG cargoes, and the Freeport LNG terminal shipped four cargoes, while Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass sent three cargoes during the week under review. Also, the Cove Point LNG terminal shipped two cargoes, and the Elba terminal shipped one cargo during the week. This week, Texas and Louisiana experienced a cold snap, which affected operations at Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi plants as well as the Freeport terminal, according to reports. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price fell 36 cents from $3.23 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.87/MMBtu this Wednesday, the agency said. The Henry Hub price reached a high of $13.08/MMBtu on Friday last week, the highest daily closing price since February 2021, reflecting a run-up in prices observed across the country that day, it said. Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations in the US this report week, after spiking on Friday ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Prices were high on Friday in anticipation of increased natural gas consumption because of the weather forecast for well-below-normal temperatures for most of the US over the long weekend, it said. The price of the February 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 16.9 cents, from $3.039/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.870/MMBtu this Wednesday. According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging February 2024 through January 2025 futures contracts declined 4.8 cents to $2.960/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures decreased this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia fell 93 cents to a weekly average of $10.51/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF decreased 72 cents to a weekly average of $9.62/MMBtu, the first time averaging below $10/MMBtu since mid-summer, the agency said. In the same week last year (week ending January 18, 2023), the prices were $24.85/MMBtu in East Asia and $20.10/MMBtu at TTF, the EIA said. EIA

Port of Corpus Christi says LNG volumes hit record in 2023 - The US Port of Corpus Christi in Texas set a new record in annual tonnage during 2023, including for liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes. According to a statement released on Thursday, more than 200 million tons of goods moved in 2023 through the Corpus Christi Ship Channel for the first time in its history. The 203 million tons moved in 2023 was an 8.1 percent increase from the prior year, and the new high mark primarily can be attributed to a jump in crude oil exports to 126.1 million tons in 2023, a 12.5 percent increase compared to 2022. Moreover, the port also saw a nearly 13.5 percent increase in agricultural commodities to a little over 2.2 million tons, as well as a slight increase in refined products to 42.5 million tons. A record volume of LNG – 16.3 million tons – moved through the Corpus Christi Ship Channel in 2023, the port said. LNG volumes rose 81.2 percent in 2021, reaching 15.7 million tons. The port previously said that LNG volumes increased 3.5 percent in 2022 compared to the year before. These volumes will grow in the future as Cheniere’s Corpus Christi liquefaction facility is currently undergoing a capacity expansion. The Corpus Christi terminal currently consists of three operational trains with each having a capacity of about 5 million tonnes per annum. Cheniere completed the first train in February 2019 followed by the second in August the same year, while Bechtel handed over operational control of the third train in March 2021. In June 2022, Cheniere took a final investment decision on the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project worth about $8 billion, and Bechtel officially started construction on the project in October the same year. The project includes building seven midscale trains, each with an expected liquefaction capacity of about 1.49 mtpa.

Biden to pause natural gas export approvals as it updates how to assess projects - The Biden administration will pause approvals of some natural gas export facilities as it considers changing how to evaluate them, the administration announced Friday. The current analyses the Energy Department uses to decide whether to authorize exports of liquified natural gas (LNG) do not “adequately account” for factors like domestic energy costs or planet-warming emissions, the White House said in a fact sheet. As a result, the administration is temporarily pausing pending decisions on whether to approve exports to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement. The pause will be in effect until the Energy Department can update how it conducts underlying analyses. An administration official told reporters that an update would take a few months, followed by a public comment period before it is final. President Biden, in a written statement, invoked climate change as he discussed the pause. “During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment,” he said. “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time,” he added. The pause only applies to new export projects and is not expected to impact existing exports. There will also be exceptions for emergencies. An administration official told reporters that four projects — two large and two small — currently have applications before the department and would be affected by the pause. A controversial pending project, known as CP2, is not expected to immediately be impacted as its approval is not yet before the Biden administration, the official said. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters on Thursday that the update was coming due to a dramatic increase in U.S. natural gas exports. U.S. capacity to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) has more than tripled since 2018 and is on track to triple again based on projects that are already under construction, she said. “As our exports increase, we must review export applications using the most comprehensive, up-to-date analysis of the economic, environmental and national security considerations,” Granholm added. The announcement comes as progressives and environmental activists have shone a spotlight on the natural gas export projects — lamenting the climate implications of increased fossil fuel shipments. Politically, the move comes as at least some progressives have expressed disappointment in the administration over issues including the war in Gaza. And while Biden has signed significant climate legislation, progressives have also pushed back on his approval of the Willow Project — a major oil project in Alaska.

America faces a looming LNG debacle - Recent news of John Kerry’s departure from the Biden team is a reminder of the baneful influence he and his progressive friends have continued to exert on U.S. energy policy. This month that faction renewed their attacks on fossil fuel by urging the Biden administration to slow down or halt approvals of new liquified natural gas (LNG) export licenses. This initiative should be seen for what it is: an attempt to constrain the free market economy and accelerate the end of the fossil fuel economy. Even more puzzling is that constraining LNG exports would likely increase, not decrease, global carbon emissions.As the United States faces crises in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, Washington should prioritize economic and energy stability to resist these challenges. Growing U.S. LNG exports has been key to keeping European economies stable, helping Ukraine resist Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression, and maintaining stable energy prices in the Pacific Rim.Indeed, last year the United States became the world’s largest LNG exporter, surpassing Qatar and Australia. U.S. exports rose 14.7 percent to a record 88.9 million metric tons (MT), or 8.6 billion cubic feet per day.After the shock of the 1972 Arab Oil Embargo, America spent decades eliminating its dependence on foreign energy suppliers to become the world’s leading energy producer. Energy independence, ample supplies, and lower prices have also been the secret to reenergizing U.S. industrial capacity. Meanwhile, the country’s vast energy resources have provided much-needed stability at home while helping allies, particularly in Europe after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite increasing production, the United States has seen one of the most significant decreases in carbon emissions of any industrialized country, now 17 percent below 2005 levels and falling while the economy continues to grow. A key reason why this occurred is because natural gas has been replacing coal in energy production. More energy and fewer emissions are a testament to American innovation and ingenuity. So America is not the renegade polluter demonized by progressives; it is the bar against which other countries should be judged, lest we forget that emissions from China and India far outpace the rest of the developed world combined. However, the Biden administration is now reviewing how it approves natural gas exports, with some reporting that the administration is planning to curtail or even limit additional applications for new or increased capacity.The theory is that exporting natural gas perpetuates the use of hydrocarbons. If America did not export such energy, other countries would emit less. This theory, however, is flawed. American LNG is not a choice of last resort; it is the world’s first choice, and its absence would undermine allies and increase the cost of goods and commodities. Furthermore, without American LNG, other countries’ emissions would actually increase because they would be forced to utilize fuels like coal or fuel oil that have higher carbon content. The history of the last few years demonstrates this inconvenient truth.

Deep Freeze Forces USA LNG Exporters to Cancel, Delay Cargoes - The recent freeze across Texas and Louisiana disrupted scheduled exports of US liquefied natural gas, temporarily tightening some supply of the heating and power-plant fuel. The Cameron LNG export plant in Louisiana canceled at least one scheduled shipment, according to people familiar with the matter. Several other planned deliveries from Cameron and Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi facility in Texas were also delayed, they said. The Freeport LNG terminal in Texas on Tuesday briefly brought down and restarted one of its three production units, according to a state regulatory filing. Freeport LNG’s loading schedule was also disrupted this week as a result of the weather, according to people familiar with the matter. Export disruptions will likely be short-lived, with warmer weather expected next week. Milder-than-normal temperatures are forecast across most of the US from Jan. 23 to 27, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The global market impact should also be limited given that gas inventories across Europe and Asia remain high, with the end of winter on the horizon. European gas futures fell to a five-month low on Wednesday. Frigid weather in the US closed ports and reduced domestic gas production, forcing LNG exporters to rearrange schedules for customers. Pipeline gas flows to liquefaction facilities on Wednesday were 45% lower than a week earlier. Cameron LNG did not respond for comment. A spokesperson declined to comment on the plant operations earlier this week. Spokespeople for Cheniere and Freeport also declined to comment.

China’s demand for LNG imports may double over next decade: largest US exporter Cheniere Energy -- China’s demand for liquefied natural gas imports may double over the next decade, an official from America’s largest exporter of the commodity said on Tuesday, as the Asian country faces pressure to lower greenhouse gas emissions. “Everything is in place and heading towards a 130-to-140 million-tonnes market in China alone, as we get towards the mid-30s-to-2040 time frame. Then we actually think it plateaus,” said Anatol Feygin, Cheniere Energy’s executive vice-president and chief commercial officer. In 2023, China’s total LNG import volume reached 71.3 million tonnes, increasing by 12.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data. However, that was still lower than the record level of 78.9 million tonnes in 2021, as the country has struggled economically after the coronavirus pandemic, seeing diminished energy consumption amid Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic gas production. The world’s second-largest economy views natural gas as a transitional energy source while it shifts from traditional fossil fuels to renewables. Beijing has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Natural gas emits almost 50 per cent less carbon dioxide than coal, the major primary energy fuel used in China. “We’re proud to be part of that solution,” Feygin said on Tuesday during an online event organised by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. Feygin voiced confidence that China would meet its climate objectives and remain one of the major pillars of global LNG demand growth in the medium-to-longer term, along with South Asia and Southeast Asia. Currently, the country has more than 40 gigawatts of gas-fired power generation under construction, along with growing industry and residential commercial demand, suggesting rising opportunities for US exporters, he added. “So we think that in those economics everybody wins.” The United States has surpassed Russia to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG after the latter was mired in Western sanctions on its energy products following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. China, meanwhile, is the world’s top buyer of LNG. Chinese energy firms have signed a record number of long-term contracts over the past few years, mostly with American and Qatari suppliers. In November, China’s Foran Energy Group and Cheniere entered a long-term contract of purchasing around 0.9 million tonnes per annum of LNG for 20 years.

Biden freezes approvals to export U.S. gas, imperiling major projects - The Biden administration on Friday halted the approval of new licenses to export U.S. liquefied natural gas while it scrutinizes how the shipments affect climate change, the economy and national security — a moratorium likely to disrupt plans for billions of dollars in projects. The Energy Department study will build on an existing analysis that underpins the agency’s review of proposals to send more natural gas to European, Asian and other countries that are not U.S. free-trade partners. New exports are now vetted on a case-by-case basis to see whether they are in the public interest — a threshold established by federal law — but government assumptions used in those reviews haven’t been updated since 2018. “We will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security and our environment,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.” Embedded Image The move strikes at the heart of the debate over LNG’s role in the future of energy. While advocates contend it’s crucial for getting developing nations to stop using coal and enabling Europe to power its economy without Russian gas, environmentalists warn that building the enormous infrastructure required to ship LNG ensures it will be burned for generations to come. The administration’s pause comes as environmentalists have seized on projects, including Venture Global LNG Inc.’s CP2 export terminal planned for the Gulf Coast, as a litmus test of the president’s climate change commitment. The review, which won’t affect previously granted authorizations or immediately shake the U.S. status as the world’s top LNG exporter, will be conducted by the Energy Department’s national labs. It could stretch for months before a report is made available for public comment. Senior administration officials who briefed reporters on the plan would not put a firm timeline on the process, saying only that it would be done expeditiously and take some months. “A lot has happened in the past decade since this program was created and we need to have an even greater understanding of the market need, the long-term supply and demand of energy resources, and the environmental factors,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said. The pause could have implications for more than a dozen proposals now awaiting review at the Energy Department, including ventures planned in Louisiana by Commonwealth LNG and Energy Transfer LP. The issue is politically fraught for Biden — forcing him to balance an array of competing priorities. A months-long review would effectively foreclose decisions on additional LNG exports until after the Nov. 5 presidential election. Environmentalists, such as Bill McKibben, who successfully led the campaign to block the Keystone XL oil pipeline roughly a decade ago, have pressed Biden to shift course on LNG and made clear they are scrutinizing every fossil-fuel project approval under his watch. The halt in permits represents “the first step in stopping these mega-climate bombs,” said Allie Rosenbluth, U.S. program manager for the environmental group Oil Change International. “Stopping LNG exports is a make-or-break issue for his climate record this election.” At the same time, Republicans — including former President Donald Trump — have accused Biden of making a priority of his climate agenda at the expense of domestic jobs and other economic concerns. On Wednesday, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell asserted that limiting LNG exports would hinder the U.S. goal of combating Russia’s influence as a global gas supplier. White House National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi said the government’s existing analysis was outdated and didn’t reflect evolving information about how much methane — the prime ingredient in natural gas — could warm the atmosphere. Earlier studies were completed in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Natural gas burns more cleanly than coal — and oil industry allies argue that’s one reason to bolster exports, not halt them. But environmentalists say methane leaks from wells, pipelines and processing undermine those green credentials and that expanded LNG exports can crowd out investments in emission-free alternatives. LNG advocates excoriated the administration’s decision, saying it would chill development and undercuts US promises to help Europe displace Russian gas after the invasion of Ukraine. “The administration’s decision to freeze review of new LNG terminals is deeply disturbing and raises significant risks around the globe,” said Marty Durbin, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute. “It betrays our allies at a time of geopolitical instability and could slow the energy transition.” Already, 10 North American projects have won the Energy Department’s blessing to export U.S. LNG, but they remain in various stages of development. The U.S. has seven other LNG projects currently operating, and an additional 12 billion cubic feet a day of export capacity still could be constructed just under existing approvals. Four projects will be hardest hit because they have gone through initial permitting and undergone a separate required review by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission yet are effectively blocked without a final export license from the Energy Department.

Manchin promises to investigate Biden natural gas export freeze -Senate Energy Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), one of the Biden administration’s most vocal intraparty critics on energy issues, vowed an investigation into the newly announced pause on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export approvals. In a statement Friday morning, Manchin implied the decision to implement the pause was based on political considerations rather than “indisputable facts,” citing LNG production’s economic benefits and the role of American exports in isolating the Russian energy sector after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ”I have always said that our first concern must be protecting American consumers and growing American businesses, and we need a safety valve in place to ensure Americans aren’t unnecessarily stuck paying a premium for the abundant resources we’re blessed to have,” Manchin said. “But as the superpower of the world, we also have a responsibility to our allies and trading partners who, in our absence, may have no other choice but to turn to countries that don’t share our values. That’s been made abundantly clear in the last two years as we have been able to step in to replace Russian natural gas to cut off funds for Putin’s bombs and bullets.” Manchin, who is not seeking reelection this year, said he will hold hearings of the energy committee on the decision to “unveil the facts about the true state of play in the markets, this Administration’s motivations, and their implications.” The Biden administration confirmed Friday it will halt export permit approvals while it assesses impacts on emissions and domestic energy costs, saying the current export permitting process does not sufficiently assess these factors. The delay will specifically apply to countries that lack free-trade agreements with the U.S. Existing export projects will not be affected. “During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment,” President Biden said in a statement. “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.” Manchin has frequently blasted the Biden administration’s energy and environmental policies, sinking the White House’s ambitious Build Back Better climate and infrastructure package earlier in the president’s tenure by withholding his vote. Manchin later voted for the smaller Inflation Reduction Act, but he has been a harsh detractor of its implementation, particularly pertaining to electric vehicles.

Fossil Fuel Speculators—Not Consumers—Would Win Big From LNG Exports: Report -- Belying Big Oil’s claims that vastly expanded U.S. liquefied natural gas exports benefit consumers, a report published Wednesday revealed that fossil fuel speculators and commodity traders would be the main beneficiaries from eight proposed LNG projects, while American consumers and the climate would suffer higher prices and emissions.The report—entitled Methane Madness—was published by Friends of the Earth, Bailout Watch, and Public Citizen and examines how the controversial Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2) LNG export terminal in Louisiana and seven other proposed projects would harm U.S. consumers while fueling the climate emergency.“Big Oil’s talking points about European energy security are cynical and inaccurate,” said Lukas Ross, climate and energy deputy director at Friends of the Earth.The report found that:

• If built, the eight pending projects will produce the annual equivalent of 113 coal plants in planet-warming emissions;
• More than half of the volume from these pending facilities has been secured by commodity trading firms and Big Oil’s speculative trading arms;
• Four of the five largest purchasers by volume from pending facilities are speculators;
• LNG from these facilities, if they are built, will be sold wherever these so-called “portfolio players” can turn the biggest profit—undercutting industry claims that the expansion is needed for European energy security; and
• The temporary surge in LNG exports to Europe since the outbreak of war in Ukraine is not translating into long-term demand.

“Record LNG exports drive up home heating prices for Americans, and line the pockets of fossil fuel CEOs, and these new planet-wrecking projects are not in the interest of the public,” asserted Public Citizen energy researcher Alan Zibel.“No amount of misleading energy industry lobbying can undo the simple reality that LNG exports force American consumers to pay more in the long run while U.S.-produced gas winds up in Beijing and Berlin,” he added. “The expansion of U.S. LNG export capacity simply empowers Big Oil giants and commodity traders’ ability to earn eye-popping profits.”The new report came as the Biden administration reportedly paused CP2’s approval pending a Department of Energy review of the project’s economic, national security, and climate impacts. While welcoming the news, climate campaigners argued that a pause is not enough.“Now that they have paused, there is only one thing to do: Vow to reject CP2 and all 17 proposed LNG projects, and to phase out ALL fossil fuels,” said 350.org U.S. campaign manager Candice Fortin. “Our frontline partners on the U.S. Gulf Coast have been fighting against oil and gas projects and for their homes and lives for decades. It is past time for the government to listen and stand up to the billionaires who are knowingly promoting toxic energy sources.”

US natural gas prices slide - Markets - US natural gas futures slid about 3% to a five-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for demand to keep dropping and output to keep rising as the weather turns warmer than normal through at least early February. That price drop occurred even though the amount of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants climbed over the past week after it fell to a one-year low during last week’s Arctic freeze. That extreme cold also boosted daily gas demand to a record high and cut output to a one-year low by freezing wells. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 8 cents, or 3.3%, to $2.339 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:07 a.m. EST (1407 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Dec. 13.

U.S. natural gas prices slide 3% on warm forecasts, slow return of LNG feedgas (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Thursday on forecast for the weather to remain warmer than normal through at least early February and the slow return of U.S. LNG export plants to full service after last week's Arctic freeze. That freeze boosted gas demand to a daily record high and cut both U.S. gas output and LNG feedgas to a one-year low. Traders noted that prices fell despite forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected, the slow return of output from last week's extreme cold, and a massive withdrawal from storage last week that was in line with estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a much bigger than usual 326 Bcf of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 19 due to last week's extreme cold. That was the biggest weekly withdrawal since utilities pulled 338 bcf of gas out of storage during a brutal freeze in February 2021 and the all-time record withdrawal of 359 bcf in January 2018. Last week's withdrawal was close to the 321-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 86 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 148 bcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.0 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $2.571 per mmBtu. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 103.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record of 108.0 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, U.S. gas output was on track to jump by 13.7 bcfd from Jan. 17-25 to a preliminary 104.2 bcfd on Thursday. That, however, was not enough to make up for the 17.2 bcfd output drop from Jan. 8-16 to a 12-month low of 90.5 bcfd on Jan. 16, due primarily to freeze-offs and other cold weather events. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal from now through at least Feb. 9. With less frigid temperatures coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 144.7 bcfd this week to 125.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. That compares with a daily record demand of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16 during the arctic freeze. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average of 5.8 bcfd so far in January, up from 4.7 bcfd in December, but remained well below the monthly record of 7.0 bcfd in August. Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise in the coming months once U.S.-based New Fortress Energy's LNG export plant in Altamira in Mexico starts pulling in U.S. gas to liquefy for export.

US natgas prices jump 6% ahead of contract expiry, slow output return (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a one-week high in volatile trade on Friday ahead of contract expiration on forecasts for higher demand in two weeks when the weather turns slightly cooler and with the slow return of output from last week's Arctic freeze. Traders noted prices fell by over 5% earlier in the session on forecasts for the weather to remain warmer than normal through at least the middle of February and the slow return of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to full service after last week's extreme cold. Last week's freeze boosted gas demand to a daily record high and cut both U.S. gas output and LNG feedgas to one-year lows. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.1 cents, or 5.5%, to settle at $2.712 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 17. Futures for March NGH24, which will soon be the front-month, were little changed at around $2.18 per mmBtu. For the week, the front-month gained about 8% after dropping about 24% last week. Financial company LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to an average of 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 108.0 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, U.S. gas output was on track to jump by 14.6 bcfd from Jan. 17-26 to a preliminary two-week high of 105.1 bcfd on Friday. That, however, was not enough to make up for the 17.2 bcfd output drop from Jan. 8-16 to a 12-month low of 90.5 bcfd on Jan. 16, due primarily to freeze-offs and other cold weather events. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal from now through at least Feb. 10. The forecasts for the week of Feb. 4, however, were slightly cooler than the outlook for the week of Jan. 28. With the weather expected to turn warmer, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 144.6 bcfd this week to 124.9 5 bcfd next week before rising to 127.8 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns cooler. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. That compares with a daily record demand of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16 during the arctic freeze. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.8 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. But on a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise by about 4.8 bcfd from Jan. 17-26 to a preliminary 14.0 bcfd on Friday after dropping by 5.8 bcfd from Jan. 13-16 to a one-year low of 9.2 bcfd on Jan. 16 during last week's freeze.

Kinder Morgan remains bullish on natural gas demand growth - Kinder Morgan said on Wednesday it continues to have a bullish outlook for natural gas demand banking on higher demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities and increased exports to Mexico. The United States was the largest exporter of LNG in 2023, with 8.6 million metric tons leaving the country's terminals in December. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects North America's LNG export capacity to increase to 24.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by end-2027, partially driven by new plants in Mexico and Canada. "The future for U.S. natural gas is very bright. And that has positive implications both for our existing business and for our ability to expand," chief executive Kimberly Dang said during an investor call. The comments come days after the company reported fourth-quarter results which showed weakness in its natural gas pipeline operations. Kinder Morgan said a rise in natural gas demand has led to increased pipeline utilization, driving new projects for the company. Of its $3 billion project backlog, about $2.2 billion is associated with natural gas. The company has the largest natural gas transmission network in the U.S. and moves about 40% of all natural gas production. Kinder Morgan said the company is also working on a couple of projects to bring more natural gas supply into the short-supplied southeast market.

Remember that foul odor that swept through the Coastal Bend earlier this month? Contaminated soil from the Victoria spill is heading to our region. (news video) — San Patricio County Sheriff Oscar Rivera told 3News trucks carrying contaminated soil from the Victoria spill will be traveling through the Coastal Bend in the coming weeks. "The dirt is headed to a disposal site near Robstown," said the sheriff. "As you recall on January 3, we were flooded with calls about a bad odor on the east part of the county."Sheriff Rivera said TCEQ announced that the odor may be noticed on US 77 as about 50-60 truck loads travel through San Patricio County.

U.S. Department of Justice preparing legal brief as both sides appeal Line 5 decision - The U.S. government has been asked to explain to a federal appeals court precisely how it believes the country's 1977 pipeline treaty with Canada should impact efforts to shut down the controversial cross-border Line 5. A forthcoming Department of Justice brief will mark the Biden administration's first public foray into the long-running dispute between Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. and an Indigenous band in Wisconsin. The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals wants the written amicus brief by Feb. 8, when it is scheduled to hear oral arguments from both Enbridge and the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa. "The court requests the United States to file a brief in this appeal as amicus curiae to address the effect of the agreement … and any other issues that the United States believes to be material," the court ordered last month. Canada invoked the treaty in the Wisconsin case in August 2022, less than a year after it did much the same in Michigan, where state Attorney General Dana Nessel has been waging a similar legal battle against Line 5. Both sides are appealing last year's decision by Wisconsin district court Judge William Conley, who concluded Enbridge had been trespassing on band territory since 2013 and ordered Line 5 rerouted by June 2026. Neither side was satisfied with the ruling: Bad River wants the contested 19-kilometre stretch shut down right away, while the company, which rejects the trespass finding, wants more time to prevent a wholesale shutdown. The U.S. has so far been largely silent on the little-known 47-year-old treaty, which has become a central issue in the case after both Enbridge and Ottawa cited it as a key reason why Line 5 must keep operating. A Justice Department spokesman refused to comment on the request or the status of the brief, citing an ongoing court proceeding. In an appeal brief filed with the Seventh Circuit last month, lawyers for Bad River bluntly accused Enbridge of flouting the band's rights over its own territory and refusing to take no for an answer. "Enbridge's position boils down to this: Enbridge can continue trespassing over tribal land for the foreseeable future so long as it pays 'fair rental value,'" the band argued. That's despite the fact that the band expressly refused to renew Enbridge's easements on the reservation in 2013 and that Conley concluded last summer that the company has been trespassing on tribal land ever since. "Although courts have long held that tribal land is absolutely 'beyond the reach of condemnation' … Enbridge insists that it can achieve the functional equivalent by consciously trespassing and then refusing to leave." Ever since Conley's ruling, the band has complained both about the three-year timeline, as well as an order to pay $5.1 million in restitution, which the Bad River brief denounces as a "paltry pay-as-you-trespass toll." "If a company knows it can make over $1 billion by trespassing on tribal land … by paying a mere $5.1-million toll calculated in a manner that ignores tribal sovereignty and the unavailability of eminent domain, then it will trespass every time," it argues. "The district court's award contravenes core restitution principles and undermines federal statutes protecting tribal sovereignty and tribal land." The band also dismisses the familiar argument from the pipeline's proponents that shutting down Line 5 would have a dramatic and painful impact on both the price and supply of energy in both the U.S. and Canada. Bad River lawyers say shutting down Line 5 would have a negligible impact on gas prices, and that existing infrastructure could offset most of the lost Line 5 crude oil capacity, minimizing the impact on jobs and refinery output. In its own appeal brief, Enbridge argued that shutting down Line 5 would be a violation of the 1977 treaty, which expressly prohibits a "public authority" — either the courts or the band itself — from "impeding … or interfering in any way with the transmission of hydrocarbons." Nor does the treaty expressly allow any "exception or qualification for expired easements or trespass claims," the brief says. The Biden administration's treaty talks with Canada are "specifically focused on whether the band's claims are a permissible basis for shutting down a key piece of binational energy infrastructure: Line 5," Enbridge says. "A trespass claim over a small tract of land that can readily be remedied through damages provides no basis for a court to usurp that process and prevent the U.S. government from speaking in one voice on the matter." The band also maintains that its own 1854 land-secession treaty with Congress should take precedence over the pipeline treaty. The supremacy clause of the U.S. Constitution says otherwise, Enbridge says. "The supremacy clause makes clear that treaties are supreme federal law alongside federal statutes," the company argued. "No authority suggests that a treaty with Canada on matters of international commerce has less power than a statute affecting Indian affairs." The band has been fighting Enbridge in court since 2019, saying the company lost permission to operate on the reservation in 2013. Conley agreed; Enbridge insists a 1992 agreement with the band allowed it to keep operating. But the judge was wary of an immediate shutdown, citing the risk of dire economic consequences, lingering fuel shortages in the Midwest, Ontario and Quebec and a lasting scar on Canada-U.S. relations. Line 5 carries 540,000 barrels of oil and natural gas liquids daily across Wisconsin and Michigan to refineries in Sarnia, Ont. Environmental groups call the 70-year-old pipeline a "ticking time bomb" with a dubious safety record, despite Enbridge's claims to the contrary. Defenders say a shutdown would cause major economic disruption across the Prairies and the U.S. Midwest, where it provides feedstock to refineries in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as Ontario and Quebec.

Unconventional Production in the US Lower 48 Region - Major Oil Shale Players Include Permian Basin, DJ Basin, Eagle Ford & Bakken, while Haynesville, Marcellus & Scoop Stack Dominate Gas Shale -- The "Unconventional Production in the US Lower 48, H1 2023" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.The US crude oil production has been on a positive trend in 2023 amid heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Additionally, a rise in international demand for petroleum products also played a pivotal role in bolstering oil production in the country.Nearly 75% of the US crude production in 2023 was obtained from the shale plays in the Lower 48 (L48) region. Permian Basin, DJ Basin, Eagle Ford, and Bakken are the major oil shale plays in the US, while Haynesville, Marcellus, Utica, and Scoop Stack are major gas shale plays. Report Scope:

• The report analyses the crude oil and natural gas appraisal and production activities in the US Lower 48 shale plays.
• Comprehensive analysis of crude oil and natural gas historical production in US L48 shale plays during 2020-27
• Detailed information of well development, permits and deals across US L48 shale plays
• In-depth information of economic viability, well productivity and well completion parameters across major shale plays in the US
• Analysis of top companies' net acreage, and planned capital expenditure in 2023
• Up-to-date information on major mergers and acquisitions across major shale plays during 2023

Oil spills in McKenzie County - Crude oil spilled at a well in western North Dakota's McKenzie County on Saturday, the state Department of Mineral Resources reported Monday.The well is operated by Chord Energy. The leak caused by an equipment failure resulted in the release of 500 barrels or 21,000 gallons of crude oil, according to thespill report on file with the state. The spill was contained on-site and cleanup has begun, according to Mineral Resources. An inspector has been to the site, and will continue to monitor cleanup, officials said.

Oil spills in Dunn County -Crude oil spilled at a well in western North Dakota's Dunn County on Monday, the state Department of Mineral Resources reported Wednesday.The well is operated by Marathon Oil. The leak was caused by a tank line split, and resulted in the release of 280 barrels or 11,760 gallons of crude oil, according to thespill report on file with the state. The spill was contained on-site and all the oil has been recovered, according to Mineral Resources. An inspector has been to the site and will monitor additional cleanup needed, officials said.

Burst pipe at Wilmington refinery spews petroleum mixture onto street – LA Times -A broken pipe at a refinery in Wilmington sent a mix of oil, gas and water spewing into the street on Saturday afternoon, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.Firefighters responding to a call at the Warren Resources facility at 625 E. Anaheim Street around 1:45 p.m. found the oily mixture shooting roughly 30 feet into the air from the broken pipe and spilling into the street. An earlier version of this article incorrectly reported that the spill took place at a Valero refinery. Emergency personnel were able to shut down the flow and contain part of the spilled material with sandbags.“There is currently no widespread or escalating hazard to the public,” LAFD said in a statement.

Federal regulators offer final word on oil spill off coast of Huntington Beach – Orange County Register - Three safety-related improvements generated from the 2021 oil spill off the coast of Orange County soon could become operating procedures: First, the minimum distance between a commercial ship’s anchor and any oil pipeline operating in the San Pedro Bay, including off the coast of Orange County and Long Beach, should be expanded. The current minimum is 500 feet and the suggested new distance is expected to be 1,500 feet.Second, underwater alarm systems connected to oil pipelines could be beefed up so that they can better alert marine-traffic controllers when a ship anchor drops nearby, and similar improvements could be made nationally.Third, oil operators should be urged to always follow protocols for training and for employee drug testing after a spill or rupture is discovered.The National Transportation Safety Board first said it planned to seek those improvements in a preliminary report on the spill released in early December. And all three ideas made it into that report’s final draft, which was made public Thursday, Jan. 25.The NTSB’s findings offer something of a last word on the Oct. 1, 2021 spill that put a relatively small amount of oil (about 588 barrels, or 25,000 gallons) into the ocean, yet still managed to cause significant damage to one of the nation’s most popular and profitable stretches of coast. Oil that leaked out of an underwater oil pipeline, broken at a point roughly 4.75 miles off the coast of Huntington Beach, killed fish and other marine life, fouled local wetlands and closed commercial fishing and beaches from Orange County to as far south as San Diego.The spill sparked national news about oil off the Orange County coast, damaging the region’s reputation. It also canceled the last day of the 2021 edition of the Pacific Air Show in Huntington Beach, a huge money-maker for the city and local businesses.It also sparked lawmakers, in Sacramento and Washington D.C., to propose different ways to end or limit oil exploration off the Southern California coast – ideas that, so far, have not come to pass. Critics in the aftermath of the spill noted that drilling in San Pedro Bay produces a tiny sliver of the oil used nationally each year, while a clean ocean generates about $44 billion a year in private and public revenue for local governments and businesses, in addition to boosting real estate values throughout the region.The NTSB’s final report on the spill confirmed several facts that have previously been settled in court or confirmed in other investigations.For instance, the NTSB report describes the spill as the result of events that took place about nine months earlier, during a storm off the coast of Southern California on Jan. 25, 2021 – three years to the day before the release of the report.During that storm, two container ships, the Beiijing and the MSC Danit, dropped anchors near the pipeline. When the rough weather (which the NTSB report described as “high winds and seas generated by a strong cold front,”) prompted the anchors to shift, the 40-year-old pipeline was dragged along the ocean floor and bent like a huge straw, weakening the metal to the point that it ruptured on Oct. 1, 2021.Critically, the NTSB investigators said neither the pipeline’s owner, Amplify Energy, nor local marine-traffic control operators (an agency called Vessel Traffic Service Los Angeles-Long Beach) were told about the shifting anchors or the bent pipeline.Investigators described that lack of communication as an indirect cause of the spill.“Had the pipeline operator been made aware of the Beijing and MSC Danit ​​​​anchor dragging, the company could have conducted an underwater survey of the pipeline, identified the damage, and made repairs, preventing the eventual release of crude oil.”

Predictive Maintenance Plays Crucial Role in Oil and Gas | Rigzone - Predictive maintenance plays a crucial role in the oil and gas industry. That’s what GlobalData outlined in a release sent to Rigzone recently, which highlighted that a recently released GlobalData report explored the use of predictive maintenance technologies in the oil and gas sector. “Maintenance strategies in the oil and gas industry have gradually transformed from their early days in the nineteenth century, GlobalData said in the release. “To achieve operational longevity, timely maintenance is necessary to prevent expensive repair works and unplanned production outages,” it added. “Technologies, such as AI, machine learning, and the internet of things (IoT) add enormous value to predictive maintenance strategies,” it continued. Apart from helping set up more agile operations in newer projects, predictive maintenance also helps extend the lifetime of aging assets, the company stated in the release. “It also aids to detect unwanted leakages that contribute to emissions. Thus, it can help oil and gas companies to efficiently fulfil their ESG obligations,” GlobalData added. The company said in the release that predictive maintenance capability is becoming increasingly useful in the oil and gas industry due to competitive energy market scenarios. “It helps maximize the operational life of the equipment and infrastructure by using an innovative data-driven approach to assess the state of the field equipment or infrastructure and provide a detailed picture of its expected operating life,” GlobalData noted. In the release, Ravindra Puranik, an oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said, “predictive maintenance enables decision-makers to schedule maintenance activities without affecting the normal functioning”. “These insights can also be utilized to determine whether any machinery or infrastructure requires a substantial overhaul. Predictive maintenance strategies have evolved in the oil and gas industry to harness newer digital technologies for improved prediction models,” Puranik added. “The proficiency of digital technologies has grown tremendously in the last few decades. The advancements in sensors, connectivity networks, and computing power, offer a strong foundation for the adoption of predictive maintenance strategies,” Puranik continued. Puranik warned in the release that a day of unplanned downtime of an oilfield, pipeline, or refinery can incur over a million dollars in losses for the operator. “Predictive maintenance helps to identify potential problem areas and resolve them in a timely manner. It could be profitable to implement enterprise-wide predictive maintenance strategies in the long-run,” Puranik added. In the release, GlobalData highlighted that “several prominent integrated oil companies (IOCs) have actively sought to digitalize their operations by employing technologies, such as AI, IoT, cloud computing, big data, and others”. The company noted in the release that this has led to the generation of a vast amount of data from routine oil and gas operations. “Growing digitalization has facilitated the adoption of predictive maintenance technologies in the industry,” the company added. A chart showing upstream predictive maintenance related contractual activity across vendors and regions from January 2018 to November 2023, which was included in the release, showed SLB with the most contracts, at more than 20, followed by IKM Holding, with more than 10, and Baker Hughes, with 10.

Oil and Gas Undergoing Historic Consolidation Wave -- Oil and gas is undergoing a historic consolidation wave comparable to what occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s, giving rise to the modern supermajors. That’s what Enverus Senior Vice President Andrew Dittmar said in an Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) release sent to Rigzone recently, which summarized fourth quarter and full-year 2023 upstream merger and acquisition activity in the United States. In the release, EIR noted that the fourth quarter recorded a massive $144 billion in upstream M&A, which the company said is the largest quarter EIR has tracked. That pushed full-year 2023 value to more than $190 billion, also setting a record, EIR said in the release. The company highlighted in the release that two “historic” deals drove the “surge in value” - ExxonMobil’s $65 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron’s purchase of Hess for $60 billion. “After a decade of lowered investment in exploration and with the major U.S. shale plays largely defined, M&A has become the preferred tool to replace declining reserves and secure longevity in these companies’ profitable upstream businesses,” Dittmar said in the release. “For the best quality resource, there are also now more buyers than sellers, driving prices upward,” he added. Among unconventional oil resource plays in the U.S., the Permian stands well atop the heap for remaining resource, offering both the most high-quality remaining drilling opportunities and the greatest potential for resource expansion from the prolific region’s stacked resource benches, EIR stated in the release. “It is unsurprising then that the Permian dominated M&A activity in 2023 with $103 billion transacted. That included a buy-in from Exxon as it made the Permian a cornerstone of its global portfolio with the $65 billion Pioneer purchase,” it added.

Norway’s Natural Gas Production Hits Record High --- Norway’s natural gas production beat forecasts and rose to a record high in December, preliminary figures from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate showed on Tuesday. Norwegian gas production increased to an all-time high of 379 million cubic meters per day (mcm/day), up from November levels and up by 7.7% compared to the directorate’s forecast. Oil production also beat forecasts, by 1.9%, and stood at 1.847 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up from 1.805 million bpd in November.Last year, Norway’s oil and gas production was slightly lower than expected, largely due to unplanned and extended maintenance shutdowns at multiple fields and onshore facilities during the summer, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said in its annual report earlier this month.Gas production resumed full force starting from early autumn, with November and December being particularly good months for gas exports, Norway said. According to the directorate’s preliminary figures, a new export record for a single month was set in December, with just under 12 billion standard cubic meters of gas exported.Oil and gas companies plan to boost exploration activity and spending offshore Norway this year as Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer looks to maintain production and raise exports to the rest of Europe.Currently, most exploration efforts are focused on areas around existing infrastructure so discoveries can be tied back quickly and create value while the fields are still in operation, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said.While this is important for maintaining production levels in the near and medium term, the directorate said it “would like to see companies exploring actively in more frontier areas.”The robust exploration and production activity of the past year is set to continue into 2024, it noted in the report. This year, exploration activity will pick up, with 40 to 50 exploration wells planned by operators, up from 34 exploration wells spudded last year, according to the authority.

Norway Court Invalidates Approval of Three Oil and Gas Fields - Climate activists won a court case in Norway against the state over development plans at a handful of oil and gas fields under the sea off the Nordic country’s coast. Greenpeace Norway and Young Friends of the Earth argued that development plans at the Breidablikk, Tyrving and Yggdrasil fields, approved by the ministry of energy in 2021 and 2023, are invalid. On Thursday, the Oslo District Court concluded that the impact of combustion emissions must be considered by law, and that no impact assessment of such emissions had been carried out in connection with the decisions in question, it said. The ruling is a breakthrough for environmental groups. In an earlier case, the same two organizations, along with six young climate activists, had argued that allowing oil exploration in the Arctic during a climate crisis breaches fundamental human rights. After failing to persuade the Supreme Court in that case and after a series of appeals, the groups submitted their case to the European Court of Human Rights. In Thursday’s ruling, the state was prohibited from making other decisions that require a valid development plan approval for Breidablikk, Yggdrasil and Tyrving until the validity of the decisions has been legally determined. The state was also ordered to pay court costs. Production at the Breidablikk field in the North Sea started in October. “The judgment establishes that the Breidablikk, Yggdrasil and Tyrving oil and gas fields were approved on an illegal basis and that production must be stopped immediately,” Frode Pleym, head of Greenpeace Norway, said in a statement. “We expect a halt to all further developments.” The energy ministry said it will now thoroughly review the judgment together with the government attorney.

EPA investigating gas oil spill in Cork - The Environmental Protection Agency is investigating following a spill of gas oil into Cork Harbour on Monday. Members of the public are advised not to use the shoreline in the vicinity of Irving Oil in Whitegate until the clean-up of the spill has been completed. In a statement, the EPA confirmed it was notified of a spill of gas oil by Irving Oil Ltd. The site operator also notified the Port of Cork, Irish Coast Guard, Cork County Council, the Health and Safety Authority and local businesses. An inspection at 9am on the morning of January 22 discovered that gas oil had leaked from a small gauge pipe onto a marshy area below it and then into Cork Harbour. "A spill response team was mobilised by the operator and the leak was contained by 1pm. The damaged equipment was repaired at 7pm on Monday evening," the EPA statement said. The team also began attempts to recover oil from the marshy area and to minimise the extent of impact to the harbour, beaches and surrounding areas, including by means of containment booms. "On the morning of Tuesday 23rd January, the operator reported that the spill response team is continuing to carry out cleanup operations and are assessing impacts to the shoreline, waterbody and local ecology as a result of the spill," the statement continued.

Spot LNG shipping rates drop below $60,000 per day - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet dropped below $60,000 per day, while European and Asian prices also continued to decline this week. Last week, Spark30S Atlantic decreased to $83,500 per day, and the Spark25S Pacific decreased to $66,000 per day. “LNG freight rates have fallen for the seventh consecutive week. The Spark30S Atlantic decreased by $26,500 (32 percent) to $57,000 per day, whilst the Spark25S Pacific decreased by $7,000 (11 percent) to $59,000 per day,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday. Afghan said that the Atlantic freight prices have halved since the beginning of the year. Spot LNG shipping rates drop below $60,000 per day Image: Spark Spot rates are continuing to decline despite increasing reports of vessels diverting away from the Red Sea. According to Spark, diverting a voyage via the Cape of Good Hope from the Arabian Gulf to North West Europe adds only $0.09 per MMBtu to the freight cost versus via Suez given Suez Canal savings, but increases laden voyage time by 9.5 days. LNG ships are now favoring the Cape of Good Hope for safer passage. On Thursday, no LNG vessels were transiting the Red Sea amid heightened tensions off the coast of Yemen, Kpler said. Kpler data shows that 2-3 LNG tankers would usually pass the passage on a typical day. Since January 15, over 11 vessels, including four Qatari cargoes headed for Europe, have taken the route via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea, it said. In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also continued to drop this week. The NWE DES LNG for February delivery was assessed last week at 9.081 per MMBtu and at a $0.805 per MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price for February delivery is assessed at $8.126/MMBtu and at a $0.745/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said. He said this is a $0.956/MMBtu decrease since last week and a $7.88 (49 percent) decline since the front month winter peak on October 13, 2023. Levels of gas in storages in Europe remain high for this time of the year. Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 77.47 percent full on January 17. JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia dropped when compared to the last week, according to Platts data. JKM for March settled at $9.555/MMBtu on Thursday. Asian spot LNG prices continued to decline as inventories remain high across Northeast Asia, and demand remains weak and supply remains ample.

Fire Tied to Ukraine Drones Shuts Novatek Baltic Sea Fuel Plant - A fire that halted fuel production over the weekend at Novatek PJSC’s plant in the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga was linked by Ukrainian media to Kyiv’s special forces. The websites of Ukraine’s Suspilne TV and Ukrainska Pravda cited sources in the nation’s Security Service as saying the attack was a special operation of Ukrainian security forces. Separately, the BBC, citing an official source in Kyiv it didn’t identify, said special forces struck the plant with drones. The blaze was the result of “external influence,” Novatek said on Sunday, citing preliminary information and without elaborating. Fontanka, a local media outlet, said drones struck the facility, in the Leningrad region, early local time on Sunday morning, although Russia’s defense ministry reported no attacks in the area. Russian media report a drone attack on Novatek plant in Leningrad region last night. The Novatek plant in Ust-Luga processes stable gas condensate, the final products being oil, kerosene, diesel fraction and fuel oil. The plant is located in the coastal zone, next to a… pic.twitter.com/pUpCoM3ikg The incident comes days after Moscow said a Ukrainian drone was downed near St. Petersburg in the Leningrad region, about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the border with Ukraine. That was the first known time that a UAV had been spotted in the territory since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost 23 months ago. The Ust-Luga port is one of the country’s two main Baltic Sea energy-export outlets, located about 130 kilometers southwest of St. Petersburg, hometown of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and not far from the Estonian border. According to Novatek, the Ust-Luga gas condensate-processing plant has ceased all technological operations. There were no casualties. The complex processes gas condensate into naphtha, jet fuel and gasoil, and ships the petroleum products to overseas markets. In 2022, the facility processed almost 7 million tons of gas condensate, according to Novatek. Condensate is a by-product of natural gas and oil production. Ukrainian drones have regularly attacked areas in central Russia, including the Moscow region, and areas bordering Ukraine. On Saturday, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that it had intercepted drones in the Smolensk, Tula and Orel regions.

Novatek halts exports of hydrocarbon liquids as facilities damaged by explosion and fire -- Russia's largest independent gas producer Novatek has temporarily lost its ability to export a large share of liquid hydrocarbons that it produces at gas fields in West Siberia, after a fire disrupted operations of its processing and export facilities near the Russian port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. "According to preliminary information, the fire was the result of external influence," the company said in a statement. Arctic LNG 2 readies first shipment to global markets Read more "The technological process at Novatek-Ust-Luga has been stopped, and an operational headquarters has been established to eliminate the consequences. Damage assessment will be carried out later," Novatek said. The company has not commented on local reports that the fire at the facility was caused by an attack of a drone reportedly coming from Ukraine. So far, there have been no reports of eyewitnesses seeing any drone in the sky just before an explosion that occurred in the deep of night on 21 January. However, there has been an unconfirmed statement from an eyewitness allegedly seeing a drone sometime after the explosion occurred at the Novatek’s facilities, St.Petersburg news outlet Fontanka said on Sunday. Novatek’s liquids processing facilities in Ust-Luga are located on the Gulf of Finland about 170 kilometres west of St. Petersburg, and provide a highly important contribution to the company’s revenues. The gas independent has had to secure additional investments into its second large liquefied natural gas development in West Siberia, Arctic LNG 2, after foreign shareholders had temporarily suspended their participation in this project in response to US sanctions. According to Novatek, the Ust-Luga facilities process gas condensate that is delivered by rail from another Novatek-run facility, the Purovsky plant in West Siberia , into refinery feedstocks such naphtha and kerosene, and also some fuels. These highly flammable feedstocks are usually exported and sold at a high margin to refineries outside Russia. According to Novatek, its production of hydrocarbon liquids, such as oil and condensate, grew by almost 4% last year to about 260,000 barrels per day against 2022, even though its output of gas remained almost unchanged at just over 82 billion cubic metres year-on-year. Although Novatek stopped disclosing operational results for the Ust-Luga facility after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it said that the facility processed condensate at the rate of 145,000 bpd in 2021. The Interfax-Ukraina news agency, citing unnamed sources in Kyiv, said the fire in Ust-Luga was the result of a special operation carried out by Ukraine's security services.

Arctic LNG 2 buyers said to receive force majeure notifications - Russia's Novatek has reportedly sent force majeure notices to some of its liquefied natural gas buyers concerning future supplies from the Arctic LNG 2 project due to start production in coming weeks, according to Reuters. The news agency, citing four "industry sources", said the notifications were issued last month after the US slapped sanctions on the project, which has three trains and capacity to supply 19.8 million tonnes of LNG per annum and 1.6 million tpa of gas condensate. A source told Reuters that companies receiving force majeure notices that had contracted to buy LNG included China's Shenergy Group and Zheijang Energy, as well as Spain's Repsol. Repsol denied that it had received any such notification, however, and told the news agency it did not have a firm contract with Novatek for supplies from LNG 2. Upstream sister publication TradeWinds reported Thursday that Novatek had started production at the Arctic LNG 2 plant from the first of the three 6.6 million tpa trains, likely using initial volumes to cool the project's 220,000 cubic metre storage tank. There are suggestions that the first train may be lacking key equipment that Novatek has been unable to procure because of the international sanctions, and that some specialised vessels needed for shipments have yet to be delivered, TradeWinds said.

US targets Baltic LNG suppliers with secondary sanctions - The US is targeting three Russian companies in a new round of sanctions, including one that counts among its shareholders Germany’s Linde, despite efforts by the leading international supplier of liquefied natural gas equipment to exit the joint venture. The package of sanctions is aimed mostly at military-related manufacturers and suppliers in Russia and form part of the US response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year. However, the new sanctions package also targets companies from China, United Arab Emirates and Turkey that help the Kremlin circumvent existing restrictions by handling the supply of military and so-called dual-use items to Russia — goods, software and technology that have both civilian and military applications. The US Treasury said it has put three Russian entities — Northern Technologies, Kazan Compressor Machinery Plant and Gazprom Linde Engineering — on the list in an effort to curtail future Russian energy export capacity. All three companies have been supplying equipment to the Baltic LNG project operated by Ruskhimalliance, a joint venture of state-controlled Gazprom and privately held Rusgazdobycha. Baltic LNG is Russia’s first major LNG export facility on the Baltic shore that could potentially produce up to 13 million tonnes per annum for the European market, despite calls to restrict Russian gas imports. This is about 10 times the combined capacity of the existing Gazprom-run Portovaya LNG facility and the Gazprom and Novatek-owned Vysotsk LNG plants on the Russian shores of the Baltic Sea. Northern Technologies, wholly owned by Ruskhimalliance, was known as Linde Severstal until June 2022, when Linde fully exited the venture. Northern Technologies has been reported as a manufacturer and supplier of spiral heat exchangers for Baltic LNG units. Ruskhimalliance has reportedly chosen Kazan Compressor Machinery Plant as a potential supplier of compressors for Baltic LNG following Linde’s exit. Located in the Russian republic of Tatarstan, the plant had been designated by authorities as an alternative supplier of turbines for future LNG developments in the country. Linde said that it entered the Gazprom Linde Engineering joint venture with Gazprom in March 2021 as a minority shareholder with 19.9%. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Linde sought to withdraw from the joint venture. However, Linde was prevented from doing so before a transaction could be completed, as Russia introduced new regulations requiring Russian presidential approval for any sale of assets. Linde’s assets were subsequently frozen as part of ongoing litigation proceedings. The company has been unsuccessfully trying to overturn this Russian court ruling that ordered Linde’s assets frozen across Russia, including those owned in ventures with other partners and their affiliates, together with Linde’s shares in 12 Russian-registered companies. The German company said in a statement to Upstream: “Linde condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In response to the invasion and the impact of global sanctions, Linde deconsolidated its Russian industrial gases and engineering business entities as of 30 June 2022. “In accordance with international sanctions, Linde ceased all involvement with this joint venture as well as with any other activity in Russia.

Russian LNG exports set to hit record high despite sanctions - Russia's liquefied natural gas production and exports look certain to hit an all-time high this year following the completion of extensive maintenance works at the Yamal LNG and Sakhalin 2 developments and the expected start-up of the first train at Arctic LNG 2, according to industry analysts. The ramp-up is unlikely to be impacted by the efforts of European authorities to reach consensus on barring Russian LNG purchases, with incremental LNG production expected to flow east rather than westward. Despite being technically able to produce first LNG, the first train of Arctic LNG 2 is still not yet ready to start full commercial operations and launch first exports, Kpler lead analyst Viktor Katona said. However, once the first train is up and running, “Russia’s LNG exports will move into the next gear, and the country may finish this year with around 35 million to 36 million tonnes” of LNG shipped to international markets, Katona said. In total, Russia exported about 32.3 million tonnes of LNG in 2023 against 32.9 million tonnes in 2022, according to an independent assessment by Kpler based on the global movement of gas carriers. Extensive maintenance work at Novatek's Yamal LNG and Gazprom's Sakhalin 2 projects led to a total production loss of about 2.4 million tonnes of LNG last year compared with 2022. The decline was mostly offset by the Portovaya LNG facility on the Baltic Sea that until recently was fully owned by Gazprom. Portovaya LNG came into operation in September 2022 and almost reached its nameplate capacity of 1.5 million tonnes of LNG in 2023, with exports mostly headed to European ports. As a result, Russian LNG exports to EU countries reached a new high of 15.55 million tonnes last year, up from 15.34 million tonnes in 2022, Katona said. Spain became the largest importer of Russian LNG in Europe, at over 5 million tonnes, and the third-largest buyer of Russian LNG globally, according to the analyst. Belgium — typically not an end Russian gas consumer, but where Novatek has a long-term contract to use transshipment and regasification facilities in Zeebrugge — imported just over 4.9 million tonnes of Russian LNG that was either reloaded onto other carriers or entered the European gas network, according to Kpler’s calculations. France was Europe's third-largest importer, taking about 3.6 million tonnes of Russian LNG. With Novatek holding a 60% share in Arctic LNG 2 and thus the right to export a major share of the production from the first train, Katona expects the company to start filling its already allocated long-term agreements once the first train starts operations. Novatek said in December that it would continue with Arctic LNG 2 despite US sanctions on the project.

BGN Acquires 2 VLGCs for LPG, Ammonia Transport - Energy trading firm BGN has acquired two Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) to its fleet in partnership with Indonesia’s Pertamina International Shipping (PIS). Pertamina Gas Tulip and Pertamina Gas Bergenia have dual-fuel tanks, enabling the optimization of low sulfur fuel and gas. The latest technology is said to improve the ship’s speed with even more efficient fuel usage, up to 16 percent, BGN said in a recent news release. The vessels have also incorporated Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies into their operations. They can transport not only gas or LPG, but also petrochemical commodities such as ammonia, the company outlined. “We are delighted to see these two modern, efficient ships on the water, thanks to our collaborative partnership with PIS”, BGN Group CEO Ruya Bayegan said. “We are pleased to help strengthen the energy security of Indonesia at the same time as supporting BGN’s global energy and commodities trading platform with these maritime assets”. The vessels, each spanning twice the length of a football field, were constructed at Hyundai Samho shipyard in South Korea and were officially welcomed at a ceremony in South Korea on 9 January 2024. In October 2023, BGN signed an agreement with PIS to collaborate on gas vessel transportation, in a move that the company said reinforced its position as an emerging maritime asset owner and a significant LPG trader. In the agreement, the two companies outlined prospective collaborations that span joint ownership of VLGC vessels, LPG cargo transportation and vessel leasing. “BGN excels at strong business partnerships, and we are pleased to move forward with this new arrangement with Pertamina International Shipping”, Bayegan said in an earlier statement. “BGN’s collaboration with Pertamina International Shipping will further enhance our maritime fleet to facilitate our growing energy trading business, cementing our position as a significant LPG trader, as well as supporting the Indonesian energy system”. The company is present in 23 countries including offices in Dubai, Geneva, Houston, Rotterdam and Singapore, and is a supplier to Indonesia. BGN describes itself as a company that efficiently conducts the trading, storage, and transportation of petroleum products, petrochemicals, and commodities worldwide. Its integrated business model ranges from oil and gas trading and distribution to financing energy projects. With established relationships with refineries, producers, state oil companies, and international traders, BGN is present throughout the energy value chain. The company also invests in asset and infrastructure development to enhance its trading activities.

India’s oil export to Europe crosses previous records - India, a key player in the global energy market, has adeptly navigated the geopolitical turbulence of recent years to bolster its oil trade relationships. Amid the conflict between the West and Russia, India has significantly increased its imports of Russian crude oil, making it the second-largest buyer of Russian oil supplies globally. This article delves into India’s strategic oil trade decisions, examining the factors contributing to its success and the impact on the European market. India’s diplomatic pragmatism has led to a substantial surge in its imports of inexpensive Russian crude oil. In the past two years, Indian oil imports from Russia more than doubled, establishing the country as a major buyer of Russian oil supplies. As Western sanctions against Moscow prompted Europe and the United States to avoid Russian oil, India seized the opportunity to secure discounted crude oil from Russia. Presently, India accounts for almost 40 percent of Russian oil exports, while Europe’s share stands at a mere five percent. The favorable pricing resulting from anti-Russia sanctions has allowed Indian refineries to process the Russian crude into valuable oil products. India then exports these products, including diesel and kerosene, to the European and US markets at significantly higher prices than the cost of their imports. India’s strategic approach has not only elevated its status as a major importer but also positioned it as a significant exporter of oil products. In 2022, Indian exports of diesel, kerosene, and other oil products surged by around 20 percent year-on-year, with the European Union accounting for approximately 50 percent of all Indian kerosene exports. Building on the momentum of the previous year, India achieved record levels of oil product exports to Europe in 2023. According to Kpler, a global trade intelligence agency, EU imports of petroleum products from India soared by 115 percent, reaching 231,800 barrels per day— the highest recorded value in the last seven years, and potentially the highest ever. The Independent reported that despite sanctions, consumers in Europe likely received substantial quantities of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and other petroleum products from Russia via India in 2023. A total of 20 out of 27 EU countries imported Russian oil through India, emphasizing Europe’s continued dependence on Russian raw materials. The Netherlands emerged as the largest buyer of Indian oil supplies in the EU, followed by France, Romania, Italy, and Spain. India’s strategic maneuvering in the global oil trade, particularly with Russia, has proven to be a lucrative endeavor. While Western politicians may scrutinize the Russian-Indian oil trade, India remains focused on advancing its economic interests. The West’s sanctions on Russia have inadvertently facilitated India’s ability to secure favorable import deals and capitalize on the resulting export boom. As India continues to strengthen its position in the global energy landscape, the European market remains a key beneficiary of its strategic oil trade decisions.

Russia Tops List Of China's Oil Suppliers In 2023 - Russia became China’s largest oil supplier last year, selling it a record 107.02 million tons of crude, according to Chinese customs data, as cited by Reuters.The total amount equaled a daily import rate of 2.14 million barrels, far ahead of Saudi Arabia, whose oil exports to China slipped to a daily average of some 1.7 million barrels last year, the data also showed. In June 2023, Russian exports to China hit an all-time high of 2.57 million barrels daily.The Western sanctions on Russian crude were instrumental in this development. The sanctions—in the form of a price cap on Russian oil shipments abroad—prompted previous buyers to shun Russian oil but China was only too happy to take more in, as was India. The price discount that the sanctions caused was a big reason for that, even though it narrowed with time, as Russian oil prices moved in sync with global prices.The same developments turned China into Russia’s largest oil customer last year. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month that half of Russia’s crude oil exports went to China, which made it the biggest buyer of Russian oil."The main partners in the current situation are China, whose share has grown to approximately 45-50%, and, of course, India," Novak said, as quoted by VOA News. "Earlier, there basically were no supplies to India; in two years, the total share of supplies to India has come to 40%."India was the other country that saw Russia turn into its largest oil supplier last year, while the share of Europe in Russian oil imports dropped from around 45% to about 4-5% as the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian oil and petroleum product purchases in December 2022 and February 2023. Together, China and India took in some 90% of Russia’s oil exports in 2023.

Russia overtakes Saudi as China’s largest oil supplier in 2023 - ssia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest source of oil imports in 2023, despite the Western sanctions capping oil prices and reducing Russian imports, reports say. According to Chinese customs data released on Monday, China – the largest oil importer in the world – purchased a record 107.2 million tonnes of crude oil from Russia last year, around 25% more than in 2022. Plummeting by 1.8%, China imported about 86 million tonnes of oil from Saudi Arabia, meaning that Russia was China’s top supplier for the first time since 2018. The price of Russian ESPO crude increased through 2023 due to rising demand from Chinese and Indian refiners, who took advantage of the discounted oil. As a result, the price surpassed the $60 per barrel (/bbl) price cap imposed by the Group of Seven in December 2022. India is the greatest importer of Russia’s Ural Mountain seaborne oil, accounting for 50% of all Russian exports, with China coming in second. In May 2023, China and India both imported record-high levels of Russian crude oil facilitated by discounted supply prices, reducing the demand for oil from other areas such as the Middle East and Africa.

Nigeria's oil spills agency investigating Shell pipeline leak report -(Reuters) - A pipeline owned by Shell's subsidiary in Nigeria has spilled crude oil in the Niger Delta following a leak, the country's spills agency and an environmental group said on Saturday. The Obolo-Ogale pipeline in southern Rivers State feeds the 180,000 barrel-per-day Trans Niger line, one of two conduits to export Bonny Light crude. It had restarted operations this month after being shut for maintenance in December. The spill was detected on Friday by local communities who reported it to Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd (SPDC) and the Nigerian Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA). SPDC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. NOSDRA has received a report on the spill and will hold a joint investigation visit to the site on Sunday, Ime Ekanem, the agency's head in Rivers State, told Reuters. Shell has over the years faced several legal battles over oil spills in the Niger Delta, a region blighted by pollution, conflict and corruption related to the oil and gas industry. The company this week announced it was set to conclude nearly a century of operations in Nigerian onshore oil and gas after agreeing to sell SPDC to a consortium of five mostly local companies for up to $2.4 billion.

Shell is leaving Nigeria on a dirty note as new oil spill hits— A pipeline owned by Shell’s subsidiary in Nigeria has spilt crude oil in the Niger Delta after a leak, the country’s spills agency and an environmental group said on Saturday. The Obolo-Ogale pipeline in southern Rivers State feeds the 180,000 barrel-per-day Trans Niger line, one of two conduits to export Bonny Light crude. It had restarted operations in January after being shut for maintenance in December. The spill was detected on Friday by local communities, who reported it to Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) and the Nigerian Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency. SPDC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The agency received a report on the spill and will hold a joint investigation visit to the site on Sunday, said Ime Ekanem, the agency’s head in Rivers State. Shell has over the years faced several legal battles over oil spills in the Niger Delta, a region blighted by pollution, conflict and corruption related to the oil and gas industry. The company last week announced it is set to conclude nearly a century of operations in Nigerian onshore oil and gas after agreeing to sell SPDC to Renaissance, a consortium of five mostly local companies, for up to $2.4bn. The British energy giant pioneered Nigeria’s oil and gas business beginning in the 1930s. It has struggled for years with hundreds of onshore oil spills as a result of theft, sabotage and operational issues that led to costly repairs and high-profile lawsuits. Since 2021, Shell has sought to sell its Nigerian oil and gas business but will remain active in Nigeria’s more lucrative and less problematic offshore sector. Shell’s exit is part of a broader retreat by Western energy companies from Nigeria as they focus on newer, more profitable operations. ExxonMobil, Italy’s Eni and Norway’s Equinor have struck deals to sell assets in the country in recent years. The British major will sell SPDC for a consideration of $1.3bn, it said in a statement, while the buyers will make an additional payment of up to $1.1bn relating to prior receivables at completion. The Renaissance consortium is made up of Swiss-based trading and investment company Petrolin and local oil exploration and production companies ND Western, Aradel Energy, First E&P and Waltersmith. It will take over the responsibility for dealing with spills, theft and sabotage, Shell said.

Shell Pipeline Leak in Niger Delta Prompts Nigeria's Oil Spills Agency Investigations | Pipeline Technology Journal - A crude oil pipeline leak last Friday in Niger Delta has raised concerns, prompting a swift investigation by the country's oil spill agency following renewed concerns about environmental damage in the oil-rich area. As reported by Reuters on Friday, January 20, the Obolo-Ogale pipeline owned by Shell's Nigerian subsidiary, which feeds the crucial Trans Niger line, experienced a leak on Friday, according to the Nigerian Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) and an environmental group. According to the report, local communities first reported the spill, prompting NOSDRA to announce a joint investigation visit to the site scheduled for Sunday. "We have received a report on the spill and will hold a joint investigation visit to the site on Sunday," Ime Ekanem, NOSDRA's head in Rivers State, told Reuters. Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd. (SPDC), the subsidiary responsible for the pipeline, did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Reuters. The leak comes just weeks after Shell announced it would sell SPDC to a consortium of local companies, marking the end of nearly a century of onshore oil and gas operations in Nigeria. Shell has faced numerous legal battles in the Niger Delta over past oil spills, which have devastated ecosystems and livelihoods in the region. The area already grapples with pollution, conflict, and corruption linked to the oil and gas industry. The extent of the latest spill and its potential environmental impact remains unclear, with the investigation by NOSDRA and the environmental group expected to shed light on the cause and consequences of the leak.

Beijing Set To Refill Strategic Oil Reserve After Draining It For Most Of 2023 -- It's not just the US that is in desperate need of refilling its strategic oil reserve after Biden drained it to score some quick political points ahead of the 2022 midterms. China also needs to refill its oil tanks after steadily drawing on those stockpiles for much of 2023... but like in the US, don’t expect a massive buying spree that will send global prices rallying.According to data from Vortexa, onshore inventories in the world’s biggest crude importer fell to an eight-month low at the start of the year. That’s likely to trigger more purchases on an international market which has been balanced between Middle East tensions and a transitory surge in US supply (which grinds to a halt the second the shale M&A wave is over).As readers are well aware, China’s oil consumption - and estimates of how much it’s holding in reserve - are crucial to the trajectory of world prices. All the extra fuel consumed after Beijing abandoned its Covid Zero travel restrictions helped lift global benchmark Brent crude above $95 a barrel in September. But that pent-up demand now looks spent and China’s economy is struggling, suggesting that restocking by refineries this year will be moderate unless of course Beijing follows through with its intentions of aggressively restarting growth and halting the plunge in the local market.Similar to the US, with oil prices now around $80 a barrel, that might not be low enough to tempt the government to add to its strategic reserves, although there is the risk that prices may rise much more if the Red Sea situation escalates, forcing both China and the US to miss their refilling window.Although China’s crude imports hit an annual record in 2023, the peak came in the summer. And even though stockpiles have been depleted, they’re still running above their five-year average, as the Bloomberg chart below shows.

Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Exports Hit 5-Month High in November - Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports inched up in November from October to reach a five-month high, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday. Crude oil exports from the world’s top crude exporter rose by 39,000 barrels per day (bpd) to around 6.34 million in November, up from October’s 6.3 million bpd level, according to the latest available data in JODI, which compiles self-reported data from many countries. Yet, Saudi crude oil production fell in November by 122,000 bpd to 8.82 million bpd—the lowest level so far for 2023, per the data in JODI, as the Kingdom continues to cut production as part of the OPEC+ agreement and reduces voluntarily output by an extra 1 million bpd. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in November was below the five-year average range for the period 2018 through 2022, the data showed. The volume of direct burn of crude fell slightly in November, and so did refinery runs, according to JODI. Saudi crude oil and oil products closing stocks fell by 4.05 million barrels to 230.4 million barrels in November. Of these, product inventories dropped by 4.19 million barrels, while crude inventories increased by 140,000 barrels. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and exports in early 2024 are expected to be around the levels reported in the most recent JODI datasets as the Kingdom has pledged to continue its voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd by the end of the first quarter of the year. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said at the end of 2023 that the OPEC+ production cuts could extend beyond March 2024 if the market requires it. The Saudi energy minister also criticized in early December commentators for failing to understand the group’s output agreement and suggested that this would change once “people see the reality of the deal.”

Iran accounts for 12% of OPEC oil revenues in 9 months: IEA - Tehran Times - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has put Iran's oil income in the first nine months of 2023 at about $34 billion, which was equivalent to 12 percent of OPEC's total income in this period, Shana reported. Based on the IEA data, the total oil revenues of the 13 OPEC members in the mentioned nine months stood at $281.2 billion. The Islamic Republic’s in the mentioned period reached $33.9 billion, about two times the total oil revenue of the country in 2020. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Iran sold only $17 billion of oil in 2020 and the country’s oil income rose to $37 billion in 2021, while Iran's total income from oil sales in 2022 was $54 billion. The report released by the U.S. Department of Energy earlier this month stated that Iran has been the top OPEC member in terms of production increase in 2023, with an increase of 330,000 barrels per day (bpd). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) affiliated with the Department of Energy mentioned in its latest report that the total oil production of Iran was estimated at 2.87 million bpd at the end of 2023. According to the mentioned entity, Iran’s oil production stood at 2.54 million bpd in 2022. The figures show that total OPEC oil production was 26.89 million bpd in 2023 which shows 630,000 barrels fall year on year. OPEC produced 27.52 million bpd in 2022. This report has put Iran's oil production in the last month of last year at 3.17 million bpd. Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq in December 2023. The 330,000-bpd increase in Iran’s 2023 oil production indicates that sanctions have been ineffective on Iran's oil industry. Back in June 2023, Bloomberg reported that the production and export of Iranian oil in 2023 reached record highs since the country came under U.S. sanctions more than five years ago. The report published in late June 2023 stated that Iran was shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite U.S. sanctions. Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the U.S. unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018. A Reuters report, also said in June last year, that Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

OPEC may need further supply curbs to balance market, says Mercuria chief - OPEC may need to cut production further to keep oil prices at current levels in the face of stuttering demand growth and high U.S. output, the CEO of commodities trader Mercuria Energy Group said on Wednesday. U.S. crude production will climb to record levels over the next two years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week, as efficiency gains offset a decline in rig activity. The EIA expects output to hit a record 13.21 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024. “U.S. oil production growth was underestimated over the past year. But it will probably slow down because of huge industry consolidation and cost reduction,” Mercuria CEO Marco Dunand told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. That consolidation included $135 billion of acquisitions by only three companies: Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp and Occidental Petroleum. “High U.S. (oil) production growth works well when Chinese demand is growing by 1 million bpd a year. But both Chinese and overall global demand are slowing and will probably grow by 1.5 million bpd this year,” Dunand said. Data on Wednesday showed China’s economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter last year, weighing on oil prices. Brent futures Lwere down a $1.50 at $76.78 a barrel by 1135 GMT. Geneva-based Mercuria is one of the world’s top five oil traders, reaping a record $3 billion in profit in 2022, as well as a major trader in power, natural gas and emissions markets. The more bearish sentiment is supported by the lack of any material impact on oil output and flows from escalating Middle East tensions and Red Sea attacks so far. Dunand’s view was echoed by rival Gunvor. In the environment of slower demand growth, OPEC needs to show very good compliance with agreed supply curbs, said Dunand. “The Saudis might need to go further with production cuts if they want to control the price,” he added.

Delegates Say OPEC+ Doesn't Plan Any Changes to Oil Output Policy -- OPEC+ isn’t planning to make any changes to oil output policy at next week’s monitoring meeting, several delegates from the group said. Saudi Arabia and its allies have just this month started new production cutbacks and need more time to assess their impact, said the officials, who asked not to be identified. The group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is due to convene online on Feb. 1. Oil prices have so far shown a muted response to the additional 900,000 barrel-a-day supply reduction being undertaken by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, which comes alongside geopolitical tensions including a conflict in the Middle East and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Brent crude has gained a few dollars this year to trade near $80 a barrel in London. Nonetheless, such levels are probably enough to forestall further action by the cartel for the time being, said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Thanks to the high price level, the JMMC is unlikely to call for a strategy change,” Fritsch said. The OPEC+ monitoring committee will meet on Thursday via a videoconference that’s due to start at 12pm Vienna time, where the group’s headquarters is located. There are no plans to issues policy recommendations at the session, which will instead focus on reviewing OPEC+ production levels at the end of last year, one official said. Full data for January — the first month of the new curbs — won’t even be available in time for the meeting, the person said. The latest supply curbs — which deepen previous reductions made last year — are due to last for the first quarter, and Riyadh has said they could “absolutely” be prolonged. Delegates said a decision on any extension is more likely to happen in the months ahead.

Oil Prices Decline as Libya Resumes Production from Largest Field Sharara Oil prices fell as OPEC member Libya resumed production from its largest field, boosting global supplies and overcoming concerns about tensions in the Red Sea that appear set to continue disrupting shipping. Global benchmark Brent crude fell to $78 a barrel, after a week of trading within a narrow range, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was little changed and remained above $73. A The Libyan National Oil Corporation said that flows from the Sharara field, which previously pumped about 270,000 barrels per day, will resume after a three-week hiatus. Elsewhere in the Middle East, traders are anticipating a long-term disruption to shipping in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, as the United States tries to prevent Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen from attacking ships. Military action to deter attacks will take some time, according to Biden administration official John Feiner, who hinted that Washington may take additional steps in the coming days. The seesaw oil prices pattern came as the impact of tensions across the Middle East, including the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, was balanced by expectations that oil markets would remain adequately supplied. Last week, the International Energy Agency highlighted increases in oil production outside the OPEC members, while demand growth is slowing. This comes as cold weather in the United States has halted millions of barrels of supplies, which could take weeks to restore. Oil Prices RBOB gasoline (Nymex) $216.66 per Gallon +0.38. Brent blend $78.49 per barrel -0.07. WTI (Nymex) $73.21 per barrel -0.20.

Oil rises about 2% after suspected Ukraine drone attack on Russia fuel terminal -- Oil prices rose Monday after Ukraine reportedly attacked a major Russia fuel terminal over the weekend, raising renewed concerns about supply disruptions. The West Texas Intermediate futures contract for February gained $1.78, or 2.42%, to settle at $75.19 a barrel. The Brent contract for March rose $1.50, or 1.91%, to settle at $80.06 a barrel. Ukrainian drones struck a major fuel terminal near St. Petersburg, a sources in Kyiv told the BBC and The Wall Street Journal. The Ust-Luga facility on the Baltic Sea exports 1.35 million barrels per day of crude oil, fuel and refined products, according to data from Kpler. "The Ukrainian drone attack on the Baltic port raises the question: Is this going to be a policy decision by Ukrainians to attack Russian oil infrastructure? If that's the case, that's a problem,". The attack highlights the vulnerability of these facilities to drone strikes, not just in Russia but also elsewhere in the world particularly in the Middle East, . "It's a pretty significant terminal they hit and if they continue to try to target Russian oil infrastructure that would be a game changer and that's what the market is pricing in here," . In the Middle East, meanwhile, several U.S. personnel are being evaluated for "traumatic brain injuries" after militants allied with Iran attacked an airbase in Iraq on Saturday with ballistic missiles and rockets, according to U.S. Central Command. U.S. forces stationed in Iraq and Syria have repeatedly come under attack by Iran-allied militants since Israel's military operation in Gaza began. Houthi militants, also allied with Iran, have continued their attacks on shipping through the Red Sea, a crucial trade artery, despite U.S. airstrikes. The attacks have stoked worries that the U.S. and Iran are getting drawn into a regional conflict that could disrupt oil supplies. Libya's National Oil Corporation, meanwhile, resumed full production at the Sharara oilfield on Sunday after protests shut down output for two weeks. Sharara is one of Libya's largest oilfields with capacity to pump 300,000 barrels per day. Traders have generally been more focused on the supply and demand outlook than geopolitical risk. The International Energy Agency has a bearish forecast for 2024, projecting that production outside OPEC, particularly in the U.S., will rise by about 1.5 million barrels per day, more than covering global demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC, on the other hand, has presented a stronger outlook with oil demand forecast to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day, while production outside OPEC will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day. "Investors want to be bullish but tepid data and cautious narrative from policymakers keep them on the backfoot," Tamas Varga, an analyst with PVM Oil Associates, wrote in a note.

Oil Slides Despite Flaring Tensions in Mideast, Europe -- Following a 2% advance at the start of the week, oil futures pulled back early Tuesday despite a fresh series of joint U.S. and U.K. strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen and a suspected drone attack against Russia's main Baltic Sea fuel terminal. Poor weather conditions and the attack on the Ust-Luga fuel terminal have depressed Russian oil exports to a 1-1/2 month low 3.02 million bpd during the week-ended January 21, according to tanker-tracking data analyzed by Bloomberg. Russian crude oil exports have since resumed, but the repairs from the drone strike still could take weeks to be fully completed. The commercial seaport Ust-Luga, located about 120 miles west of St. Petersburg, is a multifunctional port designed for the shipment of all types of cargo, oil, and petroleum products to international markets, and has both universal and specialized terminals. By annual turnover, Ust-Luga is one of the five largest cargo ports in Europe. Together with a vast shipping capacity, the facility is home to a large refining complex. In 2022, Ust-Luga processed almost 7 million metric tons of stable gas into end products, including 4.2 million metric tons of light and heavy naphtha, 1 million metric tons of jet fuel and 1.5 million metric tons of fuel oil and gasoil. Most of the petroleum products refined at the facility are shipped to Asia, namely China, Singapore, and Malaysia, while jet fuel is delivered to Istanbul for Turkish Airlines. Separately, U.S. and U.K. military forces carried out a successful round of airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, hitting an underground storage facility and Houthi missile and surveillance capabilities. The strikes were "intended to disrupt and degrade the capabilities that the Houthis use to threaten global trade and the lives of innocent mariners." read the joint statement. Houthi rebels continue to assault commercial vessels passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, spiking up freight rates and forcing tankers to take a longer journey across the southern tip of Africa. Combined with intensifying attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and shipping restrictions through the Panama Canal, tensions in the Red Sea stand to further support commodity prices and underlying inflation across developed and developing economies alike. Near 7:30 a.m. EST, international crude benchmark Brent for March delivery retreated $0.69 to below $80 bbl at $79.36, with next-month April futures once again trading at a premium of $0.47 bbl. U.S. crude benchmark for March delivery declined $0.59 bbl to near $74.18 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures fell $0.0328 to $2.2050 gallon, and February ULSD futures dropped back $0.0167 to near $2.6768 gallon.

Oil prices settle down slightly on more supply in US and abroad (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as traders focused on rebounding crude output in parts of the U.S., along with rising supply in Libya and Norway, rather than risks to supply posed by conflict in Europe and the Middle East. Brent crude settled at $79.55 a barrel, losing 51 cents, or 0.6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $74.37 a barrel, shedding 39 cents, or 0.5%. In North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing U.S. state, some oil output came back online after shutting because of extreme cold, the state's pipeline authority said. However, output was still down as much as 300,000 bpd. Persistent weakness in U.S. gasoline demand has also hit oil prices, said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC. While U.S. crude stocks dropped by 6.67 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories jumped by 7.2 million barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Official U.S. government data is due on Wednesday. Rising production elsewhere further pressured prices. Norway's crude production rose to 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, up from 1.81 million bpd the previous month and beating analysts' forecasts of 1.81 million bpd, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD). In Libya, production at the 300,000 bpd Sharara oilfield restarted on Jan. 21 after the end of protests that had halted output since early this month. Geopolitical uncertainty limited losses. "You've got the geopolitical pressures that aren't enough to really rally the oil market, but they're enough to keep the market from bottoming out of the range," s Crude prices rose by around 2% on Monday after a Ukrainian drone strike on Novatek's Ust-Luga Baltic fuel export terminal near Russia's second city St Petersburg raised supply concerns. In the Middle East, tensions rose after U.S. and British forces carried out a second joint round of strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen.

Oil Mixed Despite Large Crude Draw, Softer US Dollar - New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange were rangebound early Wednesday after industry data showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by a larger-than-expected margin during the week-ended January 19, while a softer U.S. dollar pressured by risk-on sentiment in financial markets further limited the downside for the oil complex. The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday commercial oil stockpiles in the United States tumbled by 6.674 million bbl last week, more than four times an expected 1.4 million bbl drawdown. At 429.9 million bbl, U.S. crude oil inventories currently stand about 3% below the seasonal five-year average. Supply at the Cushing, Oklahoma tank farm, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, also fell by 2.031 million bbl. Bearish elements in the report could once again be found in the refined fuels complex, with gasoline stockpiles surging by 7.183 million bbl in the reviewed week, nearly five times calls for a build of 1.5 million bbl. If confirmed by government data later this morning, this would mark the fourth consecutive weekly build in commercial gasoline stocks that currently stand just above the five-year average. Data further show distillate stockpiles decreased by 245,000 bbl versus an expected decline of 700,000 bbl. Next, traders await the release of the weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, scheduled for 10.30 AM ET. Near 7:30 a.m. EST, the U.S. crude benchmark for March delivery traded modestly lower at $74.19 bbl, with next-month April futures trading near parity at $74.10 bbl. International crude benchmark Brent March contract slipped $0.27 to $79.29 bbl, with the prompt spread widening backwardation to $0.40 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures eased $0.0155 to $2.1946 gallon, and February ULSD futures retreated $0.0241 to near $2.6672 gallon. In financial markets, the U.S. dollar index lost 0.43% against the basket of foreign currencies to trade near 102.955, lending tepid support for the front-month West Texas Intermediate contract. Weighing on the oil complex, Russia has resumed oil exports from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga mid-day Monday, less than 24 hours after a suspected drone attack on a gas processing facility adjacent to export terminals. Market sources, however, anticipate Russia's oil shipments could experience some delays in the coming days amid ongoing maintenance and increased security concerns. Sunday's attack on the Ust-Luga fuel terminal along with weather-related loading restrictions pressed Russian oil exports to a nearly two-month low 3.02 million bpd during the week-ended Jan. 21, according to tanker-tracking data analyzed by Bloomberg.

Oil Market Surges on Unexpected Drop in Crude Stocks and Decline in U.S. Production - The oil market traded higher on Wednesday following a larger than expected draw in crude stocks and fall in U.S. crude output. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also continued to support the oil market. The oil market traded higher in overnight trading as it traded back towards the $75.00 level on news that China’s central bank will cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves from February 5th, a move that is expected to support the economy. The market erased some of its gains and posted a low of $74.27 ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. However, the market later bounced off its low and breached its previous highs as it rallied to a high of $75.83 in light of a the larger than expected draw in crude stocks of over 9 million barrels on the week, compared with market expectations of a 2.2 million barrel draw. The EIA also reported that U.S. oil output fell from 13.3 million bpd two weeks ago to a five-month low of 12.3 million bpd last week after oil wells froze due to an Arctic freeze. The crude market later gave up some of its sharp gains ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled up 72 cents at $75.09 and the March Brent contract settled up 49 cents at $80.04. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 95 points at $2.6818 and the RB market settling down 6 points at $2.2095.The EIA reported that crude inventories fell by 9.2 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels in the week ending January 19th. The draw was driven by a decline in U.S. crude imports of 1.2 million bpd as the winter weather shut in refineries and kept motorists off the road. The winter storms also caused a 1 million bpd drop in crude production to 12.3 million bpd, the largest decline since September 2021. Refinery crude runs fell by 1.4 million bpd to 15.3 million bpd and refinery utilization rates fell by 7.1% to 85.5% of total capacity, the largest decline since December 2022 during Winter Storm Elliot. U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 4.912 million barrels to 253 million barrels, the highest level since February 2021. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks increased by 1.3 million barrels to 59.8 million barrels, the highest level since March 2022. The EIA also reported that the four week average for distillate product supplied in the U.S. fell last week to the lowest level since June 2020. The four week average fell to 3.38 million bpd.Global Research sees Brent crude prices remaining rangebound at $75/barrel to $85/barrel in the medium term as analysts expect the spare capacity to offset any impact of geopolitical risks. HSBC analysts said the "above average" spare production capacity held by OPEC and allies will dampen the impact of Red Sea disruption and increasing geopolitical risks. The analysts said OPEC+'s spare production capacity of 4.5 million bpd at the end of 2024, which was up from 4.3 million bpd at the end of 2023, should help dampen price spikes. HSBC analysts forecast oil demand growth of 1.3% in 2024 over a year earlier, further slowing to 0.9% in 2025. According to industry sources and LSEG data, Russia’s Novatek resumed fuel loadings at its Baltic Sea Ust-Luga terminal, damaged in a suspected drone attack. It is drawing on stockpiles to resume fuel loadings. According to the data, Minerva Julie and Chrystal Arctic tankers are currently being loaded with fuel. Operations at the processing complex have not yet resumed. Analysts have said it would take weeks for the complex to restore full-scale operations.

Oil Rallies after Houthis Continue Red Sea Attacks -- Oil futures advanced more than 2% on Thursday after Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen claimed they had hit a U.S. warship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At settlement, March WTI futures advanced $2.27 to $77.36 bbl – the highest trade since Dec. 27, 2023. The international crude benchmark spiked by $2.86 bbl to $82.43 bbl, up by $2.39 in the afternoon session. February ULSD futures advanced $0.1136 to $2.7954 gallon, while front-month RBOB futures rallied $0.0549 to $2.2644 gallon. Houthi rebels in Yemen said they had made a direct hit on an American warship this morning, forcing two commercial vessels to re-route from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, according to the Houthi spokesman. The U.S. military refuted the claim. Instead, U.S. Central Command said Houthis fired anti-ship ballistic missiles toward the U.S.-flagged, owned, and operated containership M/V Maersk Detroit, which was transiting the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea, forcing a growing number of cargo ships and oil tankers to divert away from the Red Sea/Suez Canal route to the longer and more expensive route via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. Earlier this week, U.S. and U.K. military forces carried out a successful round of airstrikes against Houthi targets, hitting underground storage facilities and Houthi missile and surveillance capabilities. The strikes were, "Intended to disrupt and degrade the capabilities that the Houthis use to threaten global trade and the lives of innocent mariners," read the joint statement. Houthi rebels continue to assault commercial vessels passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, pushing up freight rates and forcing tankers to take a longer journey across the southern tip of Africa. Domestically, about 150,000 bpd of North Dakota oil production is still shut-in by last week's frigid weather and heavy snowfall which has disrupted operations in Bakken basin oil fields. Before the disruption, North Dakota oil production averaged about 1.25 million bpd. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday nationwide oil production fell by 1 million bpd to the lowest level since late 2022 at 12.3 million bpd. The deep freeze also disrupted operations at Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries, with nationwide refinery throughput down by nearly 1.4 million bpd or 8.2% from the previous week to 15.2 million bpd. In the Gulf Coast, refinery crude throughout plummeted by 1.1 million bpd and Midwest runs fell 300,000 bpd. While market participants are yet to hear of any damage to refineries in these regions, some refiners in the Gulf Coast moved units into planned maintenance earlier than normal. Further lending support to WTI futures, commercial crude oil supplies declined by a larger-than-expected 9.2 million bbl in the reviewed week to 420.7 million bbl, about 5% below the five-year average. The supersized draw was much larger than a 1.4 million bbl decline expected by analysts and a 6.678 million bbl drop reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. Oil stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, the delivery point for the WTI contract, fell 2 million bbl to 30.1 million bbl.

Oil Prices Climb Following Significant Inventory Drawdown and Positive Economic Stimulus Signals The oil market continued to trend higher on Thursday as the market remained well supported following the EIA report on Wednesday showing a larger than expected draw in crude stocks last week of more than 9 million barrels. The market was also supported by news of China cutting reserve requirements for banks in order to spur growth, increasing sentiment around the country’s economic recovery. Meanwhile, a drone attack caused a fire that damaged a major refinery in Russia on Thursday following another strike that endangered Russian crude flow earlier in the week. The crude market posted a low of $75.16 in overnight trading and bounced higher on the bullish fundamentals. The market never looked back as it extended its gains over $2.40 to a high of $77.51 on the close. The March WTI contract settled up $2.27 at $77.36 and the March Brent contract settled up $2.39 at $82.43. The product markets also settled sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 11.36 cents at $2.7954 and the RB market settling up 5.49 cents at $2.2644. Kuwait Oil Tanker Company said it is monitoring and assessing the situation in the Red Sea on a daily basis. It said the company is taking precautionary measures to protect the safety of its fleet.Valero Energy Corp’s Chief Operating Officer, Gary Simmons, said the Red Sea attacks have led to an increase in freight rates for crude oil.The French army said a second French warship has arrived in the Red Sea region as part of efforts to ensure freedom of navigation. French officials have said their ships remain under national command and their priority is to escort French-linked vessels.Bloomberg is reporting a fire damaged Rosneft PJSC’s Tuapse refinery on Russia’s Black Sea coast early Thursday, the latest in a string of incidents at the nation’s downstream and energy-export facilities blamed on attacks by Ukraine. Local officials said a fire at a Rosneft-owned export-oriented oil refinery, with a capacity of 240,000 bpd, in the southern Russian town of Tuapse overnight has been extinguished.S&P Global Commodities at Sea data is showing the Russian Ust-Luga Baltic Sea facility has resumed docking tankers following a suspected Ukrainian drone attack that have resulted in a fire at the facility.The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter amid strong consumer spending, with growth for the full year coming in at 2.5%. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said GDP in the last quarter increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in its advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. The economy grew at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter. Consumer spending increased at a 2.8% rate in the October-December quarter after increasing at a 3.1% pace in the third quarter. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter compared with an increase of 2.6%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2%, the same change as the third quarter.

Oil settles at highest in nearly 8 weeks on strong economic growth | (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second week in a row and settled at their highest in nearly two months on Friday as positive U.S. economic growth and signs of Chinese stimulus boosted demand expectations, while Middle East supply concerns added support. Brent crude futures rose $1.12, or 1.4%, to settle at $83.55 a barrel, their highest close since Nov 30. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 65 cents or 0.8% to $78.01, also the highest close since November. Both benchmarks made weekly gains of more than 6%, marking their biggest weekly increase since the week ending Oct. 13 after the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. "Economic stimulus from China, stronger-than-expected 4Q GDP growth in the U.S., cooling U.S. inflation data, ongoing geopolitical risks, and the larger-than-expected 9.2 million-barrel drop in U.S. commercial crude stocks for last week have all combined to wedge prices higher," The Houthi military spokesperson said naval forces carried out an operation targeting an oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, causing a fire to break out, adding to worries of supply disruptions. Oil was also boosted earlier this week by a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. The depletion in inventories, especially around the WTI delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma and across the Midwest, could create a squeeze on nearby futures prices. Supply concerns are evident in the structure of Brent futures. The premium of the first-month contract to the sixth on both Brent and WTI rose to the highest since November, indicating a perception of tighter prompt supply. A potential fuel supply disruption after a Ukrainian drone attack on an export-oriented oil refinery in southern Russia also supported prices. On the demand side, the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, registered faster-than-expected economic growth in the fourth quarter, data showed on Thursday. Sentiment was also buoyed this week by China's latest measures to boost growth. Traders, however, bet the U.S. central bank is more likely to start its round of rate cuts in May, rather than March, weighing on crude futures. Also curbing gains, Baker Hughes said U.S. energy firms this week added two oil rigs, pushing the figure up to 499. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Jan. 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.

Oil Posts Weekly Gain After Another Tanker Attack --Oil rallied to the highest price in two months after a fuel tanker was struck near Yemen, underscoring the geopolitical risks to crude supplies. West Texas Intermediate rose to top $78 a barrel, the highest price since November. The ship operating on behalf of trading giant Trafigura Group was hit by a missile about 55 miles southeast of Aden, Yemen. Futures for refined products, including diesel and gasoline, also jumped to two-month highs. Crude climbed more than 6% this week — the biggest gain since the week after the start of the Israel-Hamas war — as positive fundamental news and a push from trading algorithms helped futures surpass key technical levels. Still, the US benchmark settled overbought on its nine-day relative strength index, suggesting the surge may have been overdone. Crude’s advance has been underpinned by elevated tensions in the Middle East, with the US striking Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to force them to halt attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Elsewhere, drone attacks on refineries in Russia endangered crude flows as the war in Ukraine drags on. Oil has gained more than 8% in January, with additional support from an unexpectedly large drawdown in US inventories and efforts by Chinese policymakers to shore up the economy. Still, many traders remain cautious given prospects for robust supplies from non-OPEC producers, as well as slower demand growth in major importers, including India. WTI for March delivery rose 65 cents to settle at $78.01 a barrel in New York. Brent for March settlement advanced $1.12 to settle at $83.55 a barrel.

Saudis Continue Sending Oil via Tense Red Sea -- Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, is continuing to send tanker loads of crude and fuels through the southern Red Sea, where Houthi militants have for months been menacing merchant ships in response to Israel’s war in Gaza. “We’re moving in the Red Sea with our oil and products cargoes,” Mohammed Al Qahtani, who heads Aramco’s refining and oil trading and marketing businesses, said in an interview at the company’s headquarters in Dhahran. The associated risks are “manageable,” he said. The decision contrasts with swaths of other tanker owners who abandoned Red Sea trips after the US and UK bombed parts of Yemen in an effort to quell the Houthi attacks. The militants responded by saying both nations’ shipping would be targeted, alongside that of Israel prompting naval warnings for merchant vessels to stay away. Even before the US and UK attacks, which have been ongoing since Jan. 12, hundreds of container ships and many other merchant vessels had already veered away from the area — an unavoidable route for any carrier wanting to use the Suez Canal to cut between Asia and Europe. That’s lengthened voyages and delayed cargoes of everything from fuels to car parts as many of the ships go the longer way around Africa. It’s also fanning concerns about a return of inflation. The Saudis have called for restraint in the US and UK strikes against the Houthis, trying to keep its own peace talks alive with the militants. The kingdom is seeking to end its militarily involvement in Yemen’s civil war, a conflict that has seen the rebels attack Saudi oil installations in the past. Saudi Arabia’s location — with the Red Sea on its west and the Persian Gulf on its east — makes it somewhat tricky for OPEC’s largest producer to avoid using the area. Aramco regularly brings crude and fuel from the Persian Gulf, where its largest oil fields and major refineries are located. There have been a steady stream of shuttle tankers going through the southern Red Sea — including to and from the Jizan refinery in the Red Sea — since the conflict started, tanker tracking compiled by Bloomberg shows. A fuel cargo for Jordan also went through. However, Aramco’s customers have shipped no crude cargoes through the Red Sea so far this month that might at other times have gone through the waterway via Egypt to buyers in the west. Such flows are intermittent anyway because most Saudi crude goes to Asia. At least two other tankers that loaded Saudi crude at Ras Tanura and fuel at Jubail, both in the Gulf, are making their way around Africa on the trip to Europe, rather than taking the shorter route through the Red Sea, according to ship tracking.

Saudi Tankers Given Passage Through Red Sea By Houthis, Alongside Russia & China --China and Russia aren't the only countries being given a "pass" from Yemen's Houthi rebels, but Saudi Arabia is also exporting crude oil through the Red Sea as if in perfectly normal times (well, almost). At a moment that especially Western and any and all Israeli-linked vessels are being targeted by rocket and drone attacks out of Yemen, the head of Aramco’s refining, oil trading and marketing division Mohammed Al Qahtani has confirmed to Bloomberg, "We’re moving in the Red Sea with our oil and products cargoes." He added that the risks remain "manageable". As we've been chronicling, a who's who of major tanker and container shipping companies have halted their Red Sea transit, instead opting for the much longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. This typically adds some $1 million to the total transport bill for a tanker, LSEG Shipping Research data shows.Bloomberg's analysis shows that even at this very moment in which US warships are coming under fire, Saudi transit through the vital waterway is alive and well: In the first half of January, Aramco shipped as much crude from its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu northwards toward Europe as it did in the whole of the previous month, vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.“That is also giving us huge access and optionality,” Qahtani said. “We are assessing that almost on a daily basis.”Still, like the rest of the industry, Aramco is having to deal with fewer vessels willing to travel into the Red Sea and higher insurance costs for doing so.In what was no doubt meant as a message adding insult to injury to the Israel-friendly Western allies, the Iran-linked Houthis starting over a week ago declared that Chinese and Russian-flagged or owned vessels would not be attacked in the Red Sea.

US ships with Defense Department cargo attacked by Yemen Houthis (AP) — Two American-flagged ships carrying cargo for the U.S. Defense and State departments came under attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Wednesday, officials said, with the U.S. Navy intercepting some of the incoming fire.The attacks on the container ships Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake further raise the stakes of the group’s ongoing attacks on shipping through the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The U.S. and the United Kingdom have launched multiple rounds of airstrikes seeking to stop the attacks.Meanwhile, Qatar, one of the world’s top exporters of liquified natural gas, warned that its deliveries were affected by ongoing Houthi attacks over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.Danish shipper Maersk, in a statement to The Associated Press, identified two of its vessels affected by the attacks as the U.S.-flagged container ships Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake. It said the U.S. Navy was accompanying its ships at the time.“While en route, both ships reported seeing explosions close by and the U.S. Navy accompaniment also intercepted multiple projectiles,” Maersk said. “The crew, ship, and cargo are safe and unharmed. The U.S. Navy has turned both ships around and is escorting them back to the Gulf of Aden.”Maersk said both vessels carried cargo belonging to the U.S. Defense and State Departments, as well as other government agencies, meaning they were “afforded the protection of the U.S. Navy for passage through the strait.”The ships were operated by Maersk Line, a U.S. subsidiary of Maersk that is “suspending transits in the region until further notice,” the company said.The U.S. military’s Central Command in an online statement blamed the Houthis for the attack, saying they fired “three anti-ship ballistic missiles. “One missile impacted in the sea,” the statement said. “The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely,” an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer.Central Command did not respond to further questions from the AP. The Houthis, who have been launching attacks on ships since November over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, later claimed the attacks in a prerecorded statement by their military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree. He vowed the Houthis would continue their attacks. Since November, the rebels have repeatedly targeted ships in the Red Sea, saying they were avenging Israel’s offensive in Gaza against Hamas. But they have frequently targeted vessels with tenuous or no clear links to Israel, imperiling shipping in a key route for global trade. The U.S. and the U.K. have launched rounds of airstrikes targeting suspected missile storage and launch sites used by the Houthis in their attacks. The rebels now say they’ll target American and British ships as well.

British Oil Tanker Carrying Russian Naphta On Fire In The Red Sea After Houthi Missile Strike - The British fuel tanker operated on behalf of trading giant Trafigura, was on fire after it was struck by a missile as it transited the Red Sea, in the most significant attack yet by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on an oil-carrying vessel.Yemen's Houthis said on Friday their naval forces carried out an operation targeting "the British oil tanker Marlin Luanda" in the Gulf of Aden causing a fire to break out. They used "a number of appropriate naval missiles, the strike was direct," the Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said in a statement.“Firefighting equipment on board is being deployed to suppress and control the fire caused in one cargo tank on the starboard side,” a Trafigura spokesperson said in a statement. “We remain in contact with the vessel and are monitoring the situation carefully. Military ships in the region are underway to provide assistance.”The area in question and the southern Red Sea have been the center of multiple attacks on ships by Houthi militants in recent weeks. Since mid-November, the Houthis have launched near daily attacks on vessels transiting the waterway, in an act of solidarity with Palestinians amid the war between Israel and the militant group Hamas. The conflict has rerouted trade flows as some shippers avoid the key waterway.The tanker, headed toward Singapore, was carrying naphtha, which is used to produce gasoline and plastics. Ironically, the naphtha was of Russian origin, Trafigura said. “The vessel is carrying Russian-origin naphtha purchased below price cap in line with G7 sanctions,” a spokesperson said, however some have voiced questions about how a venerated Swiss merchant procured the Russian commodity.

The United States Navy Essentially Lost A Battle At Sea This Week -- On Wednesday the US Navy attempted to escort two US owned and flagged container carriers through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea, but they turned around after coming under Houthi ballistic missile fire.A we detailed earlier, two contradictory narratives soon emerged: namely the Houthis said they scored a direct hit on one of the US ships, while the Pentagon flatly rejected the claim as nonsense. US CENTCOM said the missiles were intercepted, with one falling into the sea. But this has given rise to many more questions than answers, and some analysts are calling the hostile encounter a clear "loss" for the US Navy and the no less than three well-armed warships attempting to keep the commercial vessels safe. This engagement occurred while two American merchantmen - the Maersk Detroit and the Maersk Chesapeake - were attempting to run the Bab al-Mandeb from south to north while being covered by the USS Gravely. An AEGIS destroyer's defensive umbrella should have turned this transit into a milk run - except it didn't. CENTCOM admits that one of the Houthis' tactical ballistic missiles - undemanding targets as far as such things go - got through the Gravely's interceptors.What they neglected to mention was that it struck about a hundred meters from the Maersk Detroit, and that after the attack the convoy aborted the transit and retreated back into the Arabian Sea rather than press on into enemy fire. Was retreat the correct decision at the moment? Probably, the Gravely was shepherding two lumbering merchantmen and facing unsuppressed shore batteries of unknown strength and capability in broad daylight, quite possibly without adequate air cover given the ambiguities of the Eisenhower's exact station in the Red Sea and the limited combat radius of its air wing.Was this operational plan inadequate? Almost certainly - reading between the lines, it reeks of a complacent assumption that Houthi missile batteries had actually been suppressed by a few rounds of air raids and that a single AEGIS destroyer could handle anything the Houthis could throw at them with no need for additional contingency planning.In the event neither of these assumptions were correct - and because of it a convoy covered by one of the US Navy's premier warships retreated from a battle that was going badly. Perhaps the Task Force command should stop trying to shape narratives on this website and get to work on getting the Bab al-Mandeb back open to Western shipping, because right now that particular pool looks very closed.

Red Sea Security Deterioration Poses Risk for Energy Commodities in 2024 -A deterioration in the security situation in the Red Sea poses a key geopolitical risk for energy commodities this year, Rystad Vice President Kaushal Ramesh said in the company’s latest gas and LNG market update, which was sent to Rigzone on Thursday. “The deterioration in recent weeks of the security situation in the Red Sea, where Yemen-based Houthi militia in support of Palestine have disrupted global trade by launching drone and missile attacks on vessels, poses a geopolitical risk to LNG prices,” Kaushal noted in the update, adding that Qatar Energy suspended shipments through the Red Sea from mid-January “and has begun rescheduling shipments with European buyers”. Kaushal highlighted in the update that it has now been more than two months since the first attack on a commercial vessel, “with indications that the attacks could last at least until the Israel-Gaza conflict is resolved - an essentially uncertain duration”. “Since mid-January, the U.S. and UK have been drawn into military action in the region, striking Houthi targets inside Yemen,” Kaushal said. “However, the U.S. are in a difficult position, balancing relations with Israel while avoiding the conflict spillover over into the wider Middle East region,” Kaushal added. “Recently, the U.S. admitted that Houthi rebels are unlikely to stop their attacks regardless of U.S. action,” Kaushal continued. For the LNG market, an extended shut-in of the Red Sea route from the Middle East poses a supply risk to Europe, Kaushal stated in the update. The Rystad VP added, however, that the price impact will be delayed until Europe’s gas storage has been drawn down sufficiently. In a gas and LNG market update sent to Rigzone on January 11, Rystad Senior Analyst Masanori Odaka revealed that underground storage facilities in Europe were down 0.5 percent to approximately 96.97 billion cubic meters, “or 84.4 percent full”. “In 2023, around 15.5 million tons of LNG was sent through the Red Sea from the Middle East to Europe – a crucial 12.9 percent of the continent’s LNG supply last year,” Kaushal highlighted in the recent update, which showed that Italy’s share of LNG from the Middle East last year was over 40 percent. “Re-routing vessels through the Cape of Good Hope adds around 12.5 days to the voyage each way at 16 knots – which could require an additional 15-20 vessels to deliver the same volume over the year,” Kaushal added. “This could take the steam off the current bearish pressure on the shipping market, considering spot charter rates have dropped 23 percent across the month (two-stroke, East of Suez),” Kaushal continued. “However, it will take an increase in LNG prices before we see an increase in charter rates – more than 70 vessels could be delivered this year, representing fleet growth of more than 10 percent whereas LNG production will only grow three percent,” the Rystad representative continued.

Russian Foreign Ministry Ties Red Sea Blockade to Gaza Blockade, Backs Houthis in Moscow Meeting - --For the time being, there are no official photographs of the meeting in Moscow on Thursday evening at the Russian Foreign Ministry between Mikhail Bogdanov, the deputy foreign minister and chief Russian negotiator in the Middle East and Africa, and Mohammed (Mukhameddov) Abdelsalam leading a delegation of the Ansarallah government of Yemen, known as the Houthi movement. Bogdanov’s communiqué said “special attention was paid to the development of tragic events in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone, as well as the aggravation of the situation in the Red Sea in this regard. In this context, the missile and bomb attacks on Yemen undertaken by the United States and Great Britain, which are capable of destabilizing the situation on a regional scale, were strongly condemned.”This is the plainest signal to date of Russian backing for the southern front of the Arab war against Israel, and the link which the Houthis have made between the Israeli blockade of Gaza, the genocide of the Palestinians, and the Red Sea blockade which the Houthis have imposed on vessels owned or directed by Israeli shipowners, US naval fleet, and American-flagged and other vessels carrying military and civil cargoes to Israel or reload ammunition for future attacks on Yemen.At the same time across Moscow, unusually large delegations of officials of the Russian Security Council, led by Nikolai Patrushev, and Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, special presidential representative and Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, have been meeting to discuss a detailed agenda which Patrushev’s communiqué calls a “wide range of Russian-Iranian security cooperation” and “the practical implementation of the agreements reached at the highest level.”In an open statement for reporters, Ahmadian told Patrushev: “”America’s grandeur has shattered, and today, it cannot even rally its traditional allies. A country that considers itself a superpower is engaged in war against resistance groups and the people of the region.”The display of Russian support for the Axis of Resistance against Israel and the US is unprecedented. The Foreign Ministry and Security Council meetings confirm there is now a new definition of “terrorism” in Russian warfighting strategy, in which there is both public and secret support for Hamas, the Houthis, and other groups in Lebanon and Iraq fighting for national liberation against Israel and the US.On the differentiation between national liberation which Russia supports, and terrorism which it condemns, click to read this.

Iranian-Pakistan Tensions Occur Amid Iran’s Rise as New Regional Power in West Asia - Iran and Pakistan have struck each other’s territory while targeting a terrorist group that operates on their shared border, thus confusing observers and analysts alike. Are both countries at an undeclared war? What do these developments have to do, if anything, with the overall escalation of violence in the Middle East that has been going on since Hamas operation on October 7 and Israel’s campaign in Gaza? Here is a summarized chronology of the latest events in Southwest Asia and some context. The Iranian-Pakistani border region known as Balochistan is home to a Baluchi Islamic-nationalist insurgency against both Iran and Pakistan. The Baluch Sunni movement Jaish ul-Adl is known to cooperate with Kurdish separatist groups in Iran; it also denounces the Iranian presence in the Syrian conflict. Iranian authorities in Tehran accuse (Sunni) Saudi Arabia and the US of being the main funders of Jaish ul-Adl. For years, Sunni extremist groups of a Wahabi Salafist persuasion have launched attacks against civilians in both Iran (a Shia Islamic nation) and Pakistan. The latter is a predominantly Sunni country and an Islamic Republic that has been troubled by ethnic and religious divisions and has been the target of jihadist militant groups – including ethnic Baluch separatists. In December 2023, the Baluchi group Jaish al-Adl group bombed a police station in Rask (Iran), a town close to the border with Pakistan. On January 4, a crowd gathered in the Iranian city of Kerman to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the murder (by a US drone strike) of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard head general Qassem Soleimani. Two bombs exploded near the general’s burial site, taking the life of 84 people and injuring at least 284. It was the deadliest terrorist attack against Iranians since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, The attack was claimed by the so-called “Islamic State” (Daesh) terrorist group, also known as ISIS. In retaliation, on January 15, Tehran fired ballistic missiles at what it claimed to be Islamic State terrorist targets in Syria and in (Kurdish-controlled) northern Iraq. The next day, on January 16, Iran launched attacks against alleged militant group Jaish al-Adl’s bases in neighboring Pakistan (a nuclear state), thereby triggering heated protests from the Pakistani authorities in Islamabad. India, Pakistan’s main rival, defended the Iranian measure in a statement, describing it as an act of “self-defense” Two days later, on January 18, Pakistan’s airstrikes in Iran’s Baluchistan province (also targeting alleged Baluchi combatants) killed several people, according to Tehran.Let us now move from Baluchistan to the Levant. Tehran for years now has been describing the Daesh terrorist group either as a “creation” of the US-led West or as an American proxy group. It is widely known today the US and its allies have armed and funded Syrian rebels in their efforts to overthrow the Syrian government and empowered ISIS terrorism. The same formula applies to Libya, by the way.Since 2011, amid a civil war, Syria has counted on military aid from its allies Iran and Russia. The hard truth is that, on the ground, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, together with the (Tehran-backed) Lebanese Hezbollah have been the main anti-terrorist actors in the Levant. These forces are largely responsible for wiping out ISIS terrorists and thus guaranteeing the safety of Christians and other minorities in a region where Wahabi extremists were beheading them, kidnapping them (even “an entire convent of Syrian Orthodox nuns”), and selling and abusing women as sexual slaves, as reported Nina Shea, a senior fellow and director of the Center for Religious Freedom at Hudson Institute. Already in 2012, journalist Ariel Zirulnick, writing for the Christian Science Monitor, reported that Christians found safe haven in a Hezbollah’s stronghold, where “images of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah share mantel and wall space with the Virgin Mary.”There is therefore nothing new about Iran’s recent retaliatory strikes against ISIS/Daesh terrorist bases in the Levant. It has been fighting terrorism in the region for over a decade. Likewise, there is nothing new about Tehran fighting ethnic and religious extremist separatism in its Pakistani border. The Persian and the Pakistani nation did not merely “struck each other” – it would be more accurate to say that both targeted their common enemy across their shared border. What is new in this situation is the Iranian role.

Hezbollah Targets Command Center in Northern Israel - For the second time this month, Hezbollah reports targeting an Israeli Air Command Center in northern Israel with rockets. The base, on the top of Mt. Meron, was heavily used for aerial command before it was badly damaged earlier this month, in a Hezbollah retaliation to an assassination.This time, Hezbollah is reporting the strikes were in response to further assassinations as well as Israeli attacks on civilians in southern Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah’s comments on Syria likely refer to a Damascus attack that killed five Iranian advisors in a residential building that was destroyed. The assassinations have occurred intermittently in Lebanon, with senior officials targeted as opportunity presents itself. The most recent such attack killed a Hezbollah operative, yet reportedly the main target of the drone strike was able to survive.The latest string of tit-for-tat strikes began with the assassination of Saleh Arouri, a Hamas figure who was responsible for hostage exchanges, who was killed in Beirut. Hezbollah, angered by the strikes on the Lebanese capital, responded with rocket fire against various Israeli targets, and seems to favor hitting the Mt. Meron base as a high-profile, poorly defended site. Israel has made a big deal about using the Iron Dome system to shoot down incoming missiles fired at its territory, yet Hezbollah largely uses rockets meant for anti-tank fire, and the defensive system is generally not effective at intercepting these. Increasingly, Israel is focusing on southern Lebanon as a legitimate war zone, and it is being called a war in every way but the official name. Ground operations are talked about as if they are inevitable, with Israel amassing tens of thousands of troops in the north. The number of troops preparing for the fight with Hezbollah is nearly the same as that currently deployed in the open-ended Gaza Strip war.

Relatives of Hostages Disrupt Israeli Knesset Meeting, Demand More Action -Relatives of Israeli hostages being held in Gaza disrupted a meeting of the Israeli Knesset’s Finance Committee and demanded the government do more to secure the release of their family members.“You will not sit here while our children die,” the protesters yelled, according to The Times of Israel. Some carried pictures of their family members chanted, “Release them now, now, now!” The protesters had to be forcibly removed from the Knesset meeting.The protest came a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahupublicly rejected an offer from Hamas to release the over 100 Israelis who are still being held captive in Gaza. In exchange, Hamas wanted the release of Palestinian prisoners, a ceasefire, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.“In exchange for the release of our hostages, Hamas demands the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of all the murderers and rapists. And leaving Hamas intact,” Netanyahu said on Monday. “I reject outright the terms of surrender of the monsters of Hamas.”On Monday, Netanyahu met with a representative of the Israeli hostage families and claimed in a statement that there was “no real proposal from Hamas.” He said there is “an initiative of ours, and I will not elaborate.”Netanyahu has been under increasing pressure to work out a deal with Hamas rather than press on with his brutal campaign in Gaza, which has killed over 25,000 Palestinians. A group representing hostage families, the Hostages and Missing Persons Families Forum, has set up a vigil outside Netanyahu’s office in Jerusalem, calling for a deal to be advanced,according to Reuters.

Report: Israel Offers Hamas 2-Month Ceasefire for Release of All Hostages - Axios reported on Monday that Israel has proposed to Hamas, through Egyptian and Qatari mediators, a two-month ceasefire as part of a multi-phase deal that would include the release of all remaining Israeli hostages.The report comes a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected an offer from Hamas to free the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli troops, and the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. The Israeli offer would not end the war, but the two-month period is the longest ceasefire Israel has offered so far, according to the Axios report, which cited two Israeli officials. The previous hostage deal, which freed over 100 Israelis and over 200 Palestinians, involved a three-day truce that was extended up to seven days.Israeli officials said the new Israeli proposal made clear they’re not offering to end the slaughter in Gaza, which has killed over 25,000 Palestinians. They are also not willing to release all 6,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons but would enter negotiations to determine how many Palestinians would be released for each type of Israeli hostage.The first phase would include the release of Israelis over the age of 60 and hostages who are in critical medical condition. The next phase would include the release of men under the age of 60, Israeli soldiers, and bodies of hostages who have died.It’s unclear if Hamas will go for the proposal since they would lose any leverage they have over Israel by giving up all the hostages or if Israel would be willing to release enough Palestinians to get the deal done. Hamas is also calling for a complete end to the Israeli onslaught.The news of the proposal comes amid reports that Israel’s ground campaign in Gaza is faltering. Israel is nowhere near close to its goal of eradicating Hamas and is far behind on its military goals, which included taking over the cities of Khan Younis and Rafah by the end of December. Hamas is also reasserting its presence in areas of Gaza City after Israeli forces withdrew.

Israel Offers Substantial 2-Month Gaza Ceasefire For Release Of All Hostages - In a huge and surprise development, Israel has made a substantial proposal for a new ceasefire deal that includes multiple phases at the end of which all remaining hostages held in Gaza would be released. The negotiations front has been quiet and considered to be a failure for the past couple months, leading to general pessimism that Israel had a new proposal in the works. At the same time the Red Sea crisis and damage to global shipping through the vital transit waterway has reached a boiling point.Israeli officials have confirmed the deal on the table to Axios, which has involved Qatari and Egyptian mediators, but it's still too early to know whether Hamas will seriously contemplate it, given continued fierce ground fighting happening in the southern Strip, focused particularly on the city of Khan Younis. Yet it's a rare hopeful sign after weeks of regional escalation and worsening news.Axios writes in the breaking Monday report that "While the proposal doesn't include an agreement to end the war, it is the longest period of ceasefire that Israel has offered Hamas since the start of the war." The proposed deal envisions a two-month long pause in fighting.Presumably the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would not retreat from their positions in northern Gaza, but would likely initiate some degree of pullback in the south. Aerial bombardment would cease, but it would also require Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to halt their rockets launched into southern Israel.Over 130 hostages still remain in Gaza, though there are fears some could have already died or have been executed. Inside Israel, domestic pressure is growing on the Netanyahu government to strike a deal. Increasingly large and angry protests have been sustained, led by victims' families who have demanded that Netanyahu gain captives' freedom at any cost.Of the some 250 people kidnapped on Oct.7, there were 105 freed back in November as a result of Qatari-mediated negotiations. Of the rest which remained in captivity, the Israeli military has since said that 31 have died or been executed. Three of these were killed in a tragic friendly fire incident which outraged Israeli society. All of this has contributed pressure on the government to offer a serious proposal.Israeli officials have been cited as saying their outlook remains "cautiously optimistic." Biden's envoy Brett McGurk is in Egypt working with Qatar and other parties on hammering out the deal. According to more of the details via Axios:

• Under the proposed deal, Israel and Hamas would agree in advance on how many Palestinian prisoners would be released for each Israeli hostage in each category and then separate negotiations on the names of these prisoners would take place, the officials said.
• The Israeli officials said the proposal includes Israel redeploying Israeli Defense Forces so that some would be moved out of main population centers in the enclave and allowing a gradual return of Palestinian civilians to Gaza city and the northern Gaza strip as the deal is being implemented.
• The Israeli officials said the proposal makes clear Israel will not agree to end the war and will not agree to release all 6,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.

The Israelis have yet to promise that will halt all military actions, but targeting would likely become more focused and smaller in scale. In the November deal, which included a successful ceasefire that held for a week, hundreds of Palestinians were freed from Israeli prisons. A key reason why it wasn't extended is that Israeli leaders accused Hamas of seeking to separate family members. Israel said that in separating children from their mothers, Hamas was seeking to inject last-minute leverage. The November ceasefire collapsed and wasn't renewed over disagreements regarding which hostage groups would be freed in follow-up rounds.

Twenty-One Israeli Soldiers Killed After Hamas Rocket Triggered Mine Explosion - Twenty-one Israeli soldiers were killed on Monday when they came under attack by Hamas in the Gaza Strip near the Israeli border.The soldiers came under attack while they were planting mines to demolish two buildings in central Gaza, and a Hamas RPG hit a nearby tank, which likely triggered the mines and collapsed the building on the troops, according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).“At around 4 pm, an RPG was fired by gunmen at a tank securing the forces, and simultaneously, an explosion occurred in two two-story buildings. The buildings collapsed due to this explosion, while most of the forces were inside and near them,” the IDF said.In a separate incident, three other Israeli soldiers were killed, making it the deadliest day for the IDF since the ground invasion of Gaza was launched in October. The IDF said the death toll in the ground operation has risen to 219. A recent report from the Israeli news site Walla said 4,000 Israeli troops have been classified as disabled.So far, the Israeli slaughter in Gaza has killed over 25,000 Palestinians, including over 9,600 children and 6,750 women. Another 8,000 people are missing and presumed to be dead or dying under the rubble.Israel’s demolitions with planted mines have come under increasing criticism since it means Israeli forces were able to plant explosives throughout the buildings. Matt Lee, a reporter for The Associated Press, recently confronted State Department spokesman Matt Miller about Israeli forces blowing up Israa University, south of Gaza City.“To do that kind of an explosion, you need to be in there. You have to put the explosives down. And it takes a lot of planning and preparation to do. And if there was a threat from this particular facility, they wouldn’t have been able to do it,” Lee said to Miller.

Israel and US Military Operations in the Middle East Going Wobbly Under Multi-Front Pressure - - Yves Smith -- Simplicius the Thinker has an important post up giving evidence that the Israel war against the Palestinians and the US operations in the Middle East are buckling, to the degree that US-friendly sources and even officials are acknowledging setbacks and stresses. Early on, Simplicius describes how the ne plus ultra of neocon strategy, the Institute for Study of War, is reporting that Israel has lost ground to Hamas in North Gaza, an area it maintained it had so firmly under its control that it could pull out ground forces. The Cradle confirms Simplicius’ overall assessment in Israel loses control of its borders: For the first time in its 76-year history, Israel’s entire security calculations have been turned upside down: the occupation state is today grappling with buffer zones inside Israel. In past wars, it was Tel Aviv that established these “security zones” inside enemy territory — advancing Israel’s strategic geography, evacuating Arab populations near their state border areas, and fortifying its own borders…. Today, Israel is horrified to find itself retreating from direct confrontation lines with its arch-enemies in Gaza and Lebanon. The formidable capabilities of the resistance now include drones, rockets, targeted projectiles, tunnels, and spanking new shock tactics, casting doubt on the feasibility of Israeli settlers remaining safe in any of Israel’s border perimeters. There is a big sour note in Simplicius’ otherwise informative piece, in that he follows the US official trope that “Iran” is driving the multi-front military operations against Israel. As others on Simplicius’ beat have pointed out, he is very good on military analysis but weak on politics. Hamas launched October 7 without giving Iran a head’s up. The Houthis and Hezbollah get support from Iran and no doubt share intel, but they are independent actors. The Axis of Resistance, as some like to call it, has been increasing the intensity of its pressure on Israel as the slaughter in Gaza continues, and importantly, they have likely already detected plenty of evidence of Israeli poor performance, which Simplicius describes in detail as it is becoming more visible and widespread. Experts abroad were inferring poor Israel performance merely from knowledge and press coverage. Very early on after the Hamas attack, Scott Ritter, who had considerable experience in Israel in the 1990s, depicted the IDF as a third-rate army, proficient at ops like breaking the arms of Palestinian teenagers. He also called out the bombing of Gaza as a major mistake, assuming the objective was to get Hamas, as opposed to exterminating Gazans. All that rubble, in combination with the vast Hamas tunnel network, results in a much more defender-favorable environment. John Mearsheimer and Alastair Crooke pointed out the inability of Israel to point to any successes, such as freeing hostages or more than isolated kills of the Hamas leadership. Crooke also said the Hebrew press would report on a high (by Israeli standards) IDF death count in Gaza, only to have those stories quickly yanked by the censors.Israel, or at least the rabid right wingers running its show, may be running up against the conflict between how they have presented the war to the world and their citizens versus what, based on a cold look at their actions, is the real intent. The scale and sheer destructiveness of the Gaza assault make clear that Israel wanted to clear Gaza, not of Hamas but of Gazans (and the persistent demonization of all Gazans as in cahoots with Hamas is part of a deeply offensive rationalization). Israel, clearly naively, assumed it could push the Gazans into Egypt. When Egypt resisted fiercely, the next Israel move was to increase the punishment of the Gaza population, based at best the idea that it would increase pressure on Arab states to relent and accept Palestinians, and at worse, regarding extermination as a perfectly acceptable way to get rid of the Gazans. So a plan for ethnic cleansing on a massive scale has become genocide. In case you harbor any doubts about the real war aims:

International Court of Justice Rules Forcefully Against Israel in Landmark Genocide Ruling, Including Restricting Military Action -- Yves Smith - I am basing this post on notes taken from the live presentation, where President Joan Donaghue read most of the ruling verbatim. We have embedded the video below and [in a 9 AM EST update] have added the text of the order. Of critical importance, and a huge smackdown to Israel, is the Court came as close as it reasonably could to calling for a ceasefire in ruling for the provisional measure (which it devised itself) for Israel to cease military action against Palestinians as members of a protected group under the Genocide Convention.¹ I had opined that the Court could not call for a ceasefire since it could not bind Hamas to comply. It would not be sound or shrewd to give Israel an easy pretext for defying the court by saying that a one-sided ceasefire would leave it defenseless. But impressively, the court went as far as it could, and way way further than I expected, in constraining Israel military operations against the Palestinian population.Experts will soon opine but I assume this would still allow Israel to pursue Hamas members if it could do so without violating the Genocide Convention. This was 15 to 2, with the only dissents Uganda and the ad hoc judge from Israel.The Court also implemented a measure which sounded like, and may have indeed been, the third requested by South Africa<,³ which I thought the Court would likely not implement as pretty much amounting to a reiteration of Israel’s existing obligations under the Genocide Convention. Including them came off as an additional rebuke as well as serving for further grounds for ruling against Israel in the upcoming trial if they continued to act wantonly against Palestinians. It was not all that far into President Donaghue’s reading of the ruling that it was clear the Court had not even slightly bought what Israel was selling. I was surprised to see the Court rely on an Israel FAQ from its Foreign Ministry as the basis for Israel having responded to South Africa. As we pointed out earlier, these sort of media communications are normally not considered to be formal responses. But perhaps in this era of intense narrative management, those boundaries may have shifted somewhat. But the noteworthy part was not the Court’s conclusion here but that it didn’t deign to dignify Israel’s attempt to dispute the dispute by mentioning its arguments, Instead, the Court spent a great deal of time on facts and Israel’s unabashed conduct. It was very far into the recitation that the ruling stooped to address one of Israel’s lame defenses, that they had provided humanitarian aid and the Attorney General, very late in the game, fingerwagged officially about not trash talking Palestinians. The text barely politely brushed that aside, saying that was inadequate.I would need to read the ruling against earlier material (and remember each side did submit further backup) but the Court clearly went beyond what both sides provided. For instance, the ruling referencing findings from UN officials and agencies after January 12, when Israel made its oral argument. The Court appeared to give very heavy weight to the many dehumanizing statements made by Israel official (and again, my impression was the judges went beyond the ones provided by South Africa) and the findings of UN officials and agencies on the horrific conditions in Gaza.In addition to requiring Israel to provide aid and services, stop dehumanizing Palestinians, and quit destroying infrastructure, the provisional measures included the preservation of evidence and requiring Israel to make a written report to the Court in a month on what it was doing to comply with the provisional measures, with South Africa then having the opportunity to comment on the report.We’ll post the actual order shortly after it is up on the Court’s website. I may also add some hot takes from the Twitterverse. It will be interesting to see how the MSM organs like The Economist, which had vigorously defended Israel, and even more so Tony Blinken and Biden, try to ‘splain this outcome. It will be even more reveling to see how Israeli politicians and its press try to rationalize this ruling when the vote on every count were so lopsided, and even the US jurist and expected stalwarts like Australia did not side with Israel on any of the provisional measures.

ICJ genocide case: World court demands Israel limit deaths (AP) — The United Nations’ top court on Friday ordered Israel to do all it can to prevent death, destruction and any acts of genocide in Gaza, but the panel stopped short of ordering Jerusalem to end the military offensive that has laid waste to the Palestinian enclave. In a ruling that will keep Israel under the legal lens for years to come, the court offered little other comfort to Israeli leaders in a genocide case brought by South Africa that goes to the core of one of the world’s most intractable conflicts. The court’s half-dozen orders will be difficult to achieve without some sort of cease-fire or pause in the fighting. “The court is acutely aware of the extent of the human tragedy that is unfolding in the region and is deeply concerned about the continuing loss of life and human suffering,” court President Joan E. Donoghue said.

Key takeaways from UN court’s ruling on Israel’s war in Gaza (AP) — The U.N. world court on Friday came down hard on Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, calling on Israel to “take all measures” to prevent a genocide of the Palestinians. But it stopped short of demanding an immediate cease-fire, as the South African sponsors of the case had hoped.All sides tried to claim victory with the ruling, seizing on different elements that buttressed their positions.Israel celebrated the court’s rejection of the cease-fire request and said it had endorsed the country’s right to self-defense. Yet harsh criticism of Israel’s campaign in Gaza could further dent its image in the court of public opinion.The Palestinians welcomed what amounted to an overwhelming rebuke of Israel’s wartime tactics by a lopsided majority of judges over the heavy death toll and humanitarian disaster in Gaza. The six measures in the ruling were approved by margins of 15-2 and 16-1, with even Israel’s representative on the court joining the majority on two of the questions.As Israel presses ahead with its offensive, Friday’s ruling adds to the growing international criticism of Israel and could put more pressure on it to scale back or halt the operation altogether. The court did not rule on the core issue of whether Israel’s devastating military offensive against Hamas amounts to genocide. That question likely won’t be answered by the court for years.But it did not rule out the possibility that Israel is conducting genocidal acts. In imposing “provisional measures,” the court found that concerns about possible genocide merit further review.It called on Israel “to take all measures within its power” and “ensure with immediate effect” that its military does not commit genocidal acts, including those causing the unnecessary deaths of Palestinians or humanitarian suffering. It also called on Israel to prevent “public incitement to commit genocide,” pointing to a series of inflammatory statements by Israeli leaders. Israel was ordered to report back to the court within one month on steps it is taking to meet these demands.

Majority of Israelis Believe Netanyahu Is Acting Primarily for Personal Interest - The majority of Israelis believe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wartime decision-making is primarily motivated by his own personal interest, according to a survey conducted by Israel’s Channel 13.The survey found that 53% of respondents believed Netanyahu was acting for himself, and only 33% said he was acting for the good of the country.The Channel 13 survey found that if elections were held in Israel today, former Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s National Unity party would win more seats in the Knesset than any other party, with Netanyahu’s Likud party coming in second. Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet, would then be tasked to form a government, and Netanyahu would be ousted as prime minister.Other polling has shown the majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign once the brutal Israeli campaign in Gaza is over, giving him the incentive to continue the assault and provoke a wider regional war that could bring in the US. Israel has been conducting major airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria, including a recent attack that killed five members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Damascus.US officials recently told The Washington Post that they fear Netanyahu might view a full-blown war in Lebanon as key to his political survival. US officials have said they’re putting pressure on Netanyahu not to provoke a major regional war, but the escalations have continued, and the US still continues to provide Israel with unconditional military aid.

Israel can't 'have veto' on Palestinian state, says top EU diplomat - Tehran Times - EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell on Tuesday said that Israel cannot be allowed to unilaterally block the creation of a Palestinian state after the war in Gaza. "One thing is clear — Israel cannot have the veto right to the self-determination of the Palestinian people," Borrell told a Brussels press conference with his Egyptian counterpart. "The United Nations recognizes and has recognized many times the self-determination right of the Palestinian people. Nobody can veto it," the EU chief diplomat said, according to AFP. The comments come after Borrell on Monday chaired talks between the EU's 27 foreign ministers and the foreign ministers from Israel, the Palestinian Authority and key Arab states. Borrell has floated a roadmap involving an international conference on a two-state solution and has said peace needs to be "imposed" on Israel. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said there is "an international consensus on the necessity of resolving the conflict on the basis of a two-state solution". "It is time to implement it and the international community has the means, has the resources, has the mechanisms to do so," he said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has drawn condemnation from the United Nations and defied key backer the United States by rejecting calls for a Palestinian state. Israel insists it is focused on its military operation in Gaza aimed at destroying Hamas and freeing hostages captured in the October 7 attack. The Gaza war broke out with Hamas's unprecedented October 7 attacks, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,140 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures. Israel's brutal bombardment has killed at least 25,700 people in Gaza, mostly women and children.

Why Don’t More Countries Take Action Against Israel? -While the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation voiced support for South Africa’s case, it’s notable that it was South Africa that filed the case in the first place. Additionally, while many countries make a show of support for Palestinians, it’s largely business as usual with Israel.Maybe no one talks louder than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but oil still flows from Azerbaijan to Israel via Turkiye, and the Incirlik air base in Turkiye is still used by the US to deliver weapons to Israel. Persian Gulf states also refuse to use oil as leverage on Israel.While the West is in complete support of Israel, elsewhere few countries have withdrawn diplomats or suspended economic ties with Israel. How big of a role do Israeli sales of weapons and surveillance technology play in those decisions? Antony Loewenstein in his book “The Palestine Laboratory” makes a compelling case that it plays a big part. I wrote a review of a month ago, largely focusing on the spread of surveillance and population control technology pioneered by Israel, which is used in efforts to plunder assets or people – both abroad and domestically.The increasing worldwide use of population control technology that Israel uses (and refines) on Palestinians is a warning sign for the future, but also helps explain why governments are still hesitant to oppose Israel. There are no doubt other factors at play, such as pressure from the US and other forces of coercion, and while Israel’s tech may have lost some of its luster on Oct. 7, as the Israel Defense Force’s supposedly state-of-the-art systems were unable to prevent Hamas’ attack, it’s still in demand because of what Loewenstein describes here about Cellebrite, the Israeli digital intelligence behemoth whose products include the Universal Forensic Extraction Device hacking tool:A former Cellebrite employee, previously a member of the defense establishment, wrote anonymously in Haaretz that “I can say from personal experience that the company does nothing to prevent the abuse of its products by customers.” The reason repressive states want Israeli tech, whether from Cellebrite or NSO, is simple: China and other states make “inferior alternatives.” Israel sells to just about everyone who wants to buy. It sold to Chile during Pinochet despite the US-backed dictator torturing and murdering Jews. It sells to China, Russia, the US, the EU. It sells to Gulf monarchies. Israel has not ratified the Arms Trade Treaty, which prohibits the sale of weapons at risk of being used in genocide and crimes against humanity. And so naturally, it’s played an integral role arming genocidal governments over the years, including in Guatemala, Indonesia, Equatorial Guinea, Rwanda, and Sri Lanka. But Israel will suspend sales if a country goes too far in its criticism of Israeli actions. In October, this happened with Colombia after its president Gustavo Petro made comments, such as “terrorism is killing innocent children in Palestine” and accused Israel of turning Gaza into a “concentration camp.”Israel called Colombia’s ambassador to a meeting in which she was informed that defense cooperation between the countries would be suspended.The Colombian Air Force’s primary fighter jet and only high-performance combat aircraft is made by IAI. According to Defense News, “the Kfir jets are also armed with weapons acquired from Israel, including the Derby BVR medium-range air-to-air missiles from Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Griffin laser-guided-bombs from IAI. And the Kfirs use Python III and Python IV all-aspect, heat-seeking, close-range air-to-air missiles, made by Rafael.” Colombia also got its infantry rifles and primary anti-tank missiles from Israeli companies. The relationship between Israel and Colombia is much deeper than just that, however, as described by Loewenstein in “The Palestine Laboratory.” Infamous Israeli-manufactured Galil rifles ended up with Colombian drug lords in the late 1980s after being used in the Guatemalan genocide. More:

US Intelligence Says Israel Nowhere Close to Its Goal of Eliminating Hamas - US intelligence officials estimate Israel is nowhere close to its goal of eliminating Hamas after over three months of relentless airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza, The Wall Street Journal reported.US intelligence agencies estimate between 20% and 30% of Hamas fighters have been killed. The US estimates the group has about 25,000-30,000 militants and a few thousand police and other types of forces. There are also other militant groups inside Gaza, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The report came after a member of Israel’s war cabinet, Gadi Eisenkot, suggested the goal of eradicating Hamas is unrealistic in a veiled swipe at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Whoever speaks of the absolute defeat [of Hamas in Gaza] and of it no longer having the will or the capability [to harm Israel], is not speaking the truth. That is why we should not tell tall tales,” said Eisenkot, a former head of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) whose son died fighting in Gaza in December.“Today, the situation already in the Gaza Strip is that the goals of the war have not yet been achieved, but the war is already not happening. There is a reduced troop deployment, a different modus operandi,” Eisenkot added.The Journal report said that Hamas was re-establishing its police force in some areas in northern Gaza where the Israeli military has withdrawn troops despite the massive destruction, demonstrating the resilience of Hamas’ forces.Israel claims it has killed 9,000 Hamas fighters, which is on the higher end of the US intelligence estimate. The US also estimates that between 10,500 and 11,700 militants have been wounded, while Israel says the number of wounded is 16,000. The estimates are not confirmed since Hamas has not released casualty figures and denies that it’s taking heavy losses.

Turkish Parliament Approves Sweden's NATO Membership - Turkey’s parliament ratified Sweden’s NATO bid on Tuesday, bringing Stockholm one step closer to joining the military alliance. Turkey’s General Assembly voted 287-55 to approve Sweden’s NATO bid about a year and a half after Stockholm submitted its application. Hungary is the final NATO country that needs to approve Sweden’s membership.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Tuesday that he invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson “for a visit to Hungary to negotiate on Sweden’s NATO accession.” But Stockholm appeared to decline the invitation.“I see no reason to negotiate at this point,” said Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom. “What we hope, of course, is that Hungary will ratify membership as soon as possible.”Sweden applied to join NATO with Finland in May 2022, but Turkey delayed its approval over the Nordic nations’ alleged support for the PKK and other Kurdish militant groups. Turkey approved Finland’s membership in March 2023 but held out longer with Sweden. Once Sweden officially joins NATO, the alliance will have 32 members, twice what it had at the end of the Cold War. Finland joining NATO has significantly raised tensions with Russia since the Russian-Finnish border is over 800 miles long.The US recently signed a deal with Finland that gives it access to 15 bases in the country, including one on the Russian border. The US signed a similar agreement that will allow it to establish a military presence in Sweden.

NATO admiral warns of potential all-out war with Russia -Top NATO official Adm. Rob Bauer warned Thursday that a larger war with Russia and other adversaries is a real threat amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.Bauer, chair of the Western security alliance’s Military Committee, said “not everything is going to be hunky dory in the next 20 years.”“I’m not saying it is going wrong tomorrow, but we have to realize it’s not a given that we are in peace,” he said at a press conference in Brussels. “That’s why we have the plans, that’s why we are preparing for conflict with Russia and the terror groups if it comes to it.”Bauer emphasized the security alliance is defensive and does not seek conflict or a wider war.“But if they attack us, we have to be ready,” he added.Bauer gave the dire warning as NATO announced large-scale exercises next week involving all 31 alliance members, as well as candidate nation Sweden.The military drills, which run until May and are the largest since the end of the Cold War, will involve 90,000 troops and numerous vehicles, aircraft and ships spread across Europe. When announcing the drills, NATO leaders emphasized this week that it was vital to prepare for conflict and maintain readiness, even as the alliance remains defensive by nature. The U.S. is aiding two wars in Israel and Ukraine in one of the most volatile global security challenges it has faced in years.

Slovak Prime Minister Says Ukraine Must Give Up Territory to End War - Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said over the weekend that the only way to end the war in Ukraine is for Kyiv to give up some of its territory to Russia. “There has to be some kind of compromise,” Fico said, according to POLITICO. “What do they expect, that the Russians will leave Crimea, Donbas, and Luhansk? That’s unrealistic.” Fico was elected toward the end of 2023 after campaigning to end Slovakia’s support for the war in Ukraine. His government followed through on the pledge and stopped supplying Ukraine with military aid, which was significant since Slovakia is a NATO member. Fico will meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Wednesday and said he will tell him that Slovakia will block any attempts to bring Ukraine into NATO. “I will tell him that I am against the membership of Ukraine in NATO and that I will veto it,” Fico said. “It would merely be a basis for World War III, nothing else.” The Slovak leader said Ukraine was not a “sovereign nation” since it is “under the total influence and control of the United States.” Responding to Fico’s comments, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said Kyiv would not give up any territory even though Ukrainian forces have no chance of beating Russia on the battlefield. “There can be no compromise on territorial integrity. Not Ukraine, not Slovakia, not any other country,” he said.

Ukrainian Shelling of Donetsk Market Kills at Least 27 - At least 27 people were killed in a Ukrainian attack on a market on the outskirts of the city of Donestk in the Russian-controlled portion of the Donetsk Oblast, according to local officials.“As a result of Ukraine’s artillery shelling attack on the Tekstilshchik district, 27 civilians have died. Twenty-five more, including two teenagers, received various wounds,” said Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, which was created in 2014 in response to the US-backed coup in Kyiv.Pushilin said Ukrainian forces used 152mm and 155mm artillery shells in the attack on the market. According to the Pentagon, the US has provided Ukraine with over 2 million 155mm rounds and over 200,000 152mm shells.A spokesman for United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the UN chief “strongly condemns all attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, including today’s shelling of the city of Donetsk in Ukraine.”Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attack and said Western weapons were used. “This again confirms [the West’s] direct involvement in the conflict and makes it complicit in the criminal acts of the Zelensky regime, which has once again displayed its inhumanity and hatred towards innocent people,” the ministry said.

Russian plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashes near border - A military transport plane Ilyushin-76 crashed in the Belgorod Region on Wednesday morning, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, six crew and three escorts. "On January 24 this year an Ilyushin-76 transport plane crashed in the Belgorod Region during a scheduled flight at about 11 a.m. Moscow time (8 a.m. GMT). There were 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were being moved to the Belgorod Region for an exchange, and three escorts on board," the Defense Ministry said. The Aerospace Force has dispatched a panel of inquiry to probe into the incident. Earlier, the governor of the Belgorod Region, said on his Telegram channel the incident occurred in the Korocha district. He did not elaborate. A team of investigators and Emergency Ministry personnel are working at the site of the crash.

Russia accuses Ukraine of killing 65 of its own PoWs by shooting down plane (Reuters) - Russia accused Ukraine on Wednesday of deliberately shooting down a Russian military transport plane carrying 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers to a prisoner exchange in what it called a barbaric act of terrorism that had killed a total of 74 people. Ukraine called for full clarification of the circumstances of the incident and did not directly confirm it had shot down the plane. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in his evening address said: "It is clear that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, the feelings of their loved ones and the emotions of our society." The Russian defence ministry said six Russian crew members and three Russian soldiers had been on the Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane shot down near the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border. After a long pause, the Ukrainian military said it would continue to destroy Russian military transport aircraft it believed were carrying missiles with which to strike Ukraine. It said it had noticed more Russian military transport aircraft landing in Belgorod, something it linked to Russian missile strikes on Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities. Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk accused Russia of trying to undermine international support for Ukraine. "Ukraine has the right to defend itself and destroy the means of the aggressors' aerial attack," he said. The Russian defence ministry said the exchange was to have taken place on Wednesday afternoon at the Kolotilovka border checkpoint and Ukraine knew a transport plane carrying captured Ukrainian soldiers was expected at the Belgorod airfield. "By committing this terrorist act, the Ukrainian leadership has showed its true face. It disregarded the lives of its own citizens," the ministry said in a statement. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for a meeting of the U.N. Security Council and said Russia sought to establish "the reasons behind the Ukrainian criminal act". A French spokesperson at the U.N. said the meeting would be held at 5 p.m. (2200 GMT) on Thursday. Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency said Ukraine had not been asked to ensure airspace security around Belgorod unlike previous swaps and had not been informed about what means of transport would be used and which routes.

Doomsday Clock freezes at 90 seconds to midnight amid ‘unabated ferocity’ of global risks - The world is 90 seconds away from global catastrophe on the Doomsday Clock, a dire warning but one that has not moved since last year, according to the annual update from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Global instability is being driven by Russia’s nearly two-year war in Ukraine, Israel’s war on Hamas after its Oct. 7 attack, proxy battles raging in the Middle East, nuclear powers failing on arms control talks, insufficient progress on combating climate change, and the growing risks of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. “The risks of last year continue with unabated ferocity and continue to shape this year,” said Rachel Bronson, the CEO of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. “Today, we once again set the doomsday clock to express a continuing and unprecedented level of risk.” The Doomsday Clock, created in 1947, serves as an annual warning and urgent call to action by a consortium of scientists to world leaders and society to address threats to humanity. It was created in the aftermath of the U.S. dropping atomic bombings on Japan at the end of World War II, with the fathers of nuclear energy and weapons — Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer and Manhattan Project scientists and engineers — creating the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists to educate the public and warn them about the risks of unchecked nuclear power. The Doomsday clock has the potential to move backward — it was at 17 minutes to midnight following the end of the Cold War and commitments to nuclear arms control — but has moved into the seconds over the past few years given a wider range of threats and increased risk of nuclear war. “I firmly believe that the risks of plundering into a nuclear war given that we can launch them so quickly, are much, much higher,” said Alex Glaser, associate professor in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public Affairs and in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Princeton University, and a member of the science and security board at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Dutch Queen Promotes Global Digital ID At Davos - Queen Maxima of the Netherlands took to the Davos stage to declare that digital IDs are necessary for nearly every aspect of social engagement.The Dutch queen told the World Economic Forum (WEF) that they can no longer trust the people, and digital IDs will provide governments with a clear way to track our behavior. Vaccine passports are necessary to tell “who actually got a vaccination or not,” highlighting how those at the top do not trust the public. They want complete unilateral control. In fact, she believes that children should not be allowed to enroll in school unless they have a digital ID that includes their vaccination passport.“It [digital ID] is also good for school enrollment; it is also good for health – who actually got a vaccination or not; it’s very good actually to get your subsidies from the government,” she said to a room of nodding heads.Want to open a bank account? You must present a digital ID.Queen Maxima of the Netherlands at WEF in Davos: [Digital ID] is very necessary for financial services, but not only - it is also good for school enrollment; it is also good for health -- who actually got a vaccination or not" #DigitalID #WEF24 https://t.co/DJiO8nISih pic.twitter.com/RgYA2ahXS0— Now the Netherlands implemented a COVID certificate that was required for travel throughout the EU.Citizens were provided yellow vaccination booklets that they were required to carry throughout the pandemic.Mass protests erupted, but the government did not drop restrictions until 72% of the population was already injected.Over 40% of restaurants said they would not ask patrons to show proof of vaccination to enter. Prime Minister Mark Rutte immediately fired Deputy Economic Affairs Minister Mona Keijzer for questioning the vaccine passport. “If we end up in a society where we have to be afraid of each other unless we can show proof, then you really have to scratch your head and ask yourself: Is this the direction we want to go?” Dissent is no longer tolerated.The power they tasted during the lockdowns opened Pandora’s Box. The Dutch government must realize they will be met with resistance as the Dutch people will not allow the government to control them without a fight.