Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.34 Trillion from Peak, to $7.63 Trillion, Lowest since March 2021 By Wolf Richter The Fed’s Quantitative Tightening continued on track in January. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $51 billion in December, to $7.63 trillion, the lowest since March 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.34 trillion. The Fed re-affirmed QT explicitly in yesterday’s FOMC statement and inPowell’s press conference. And the Fed finally shut down the arbitrage opportunity at the bank-bailout facility, the BTFP, that had opened up in early November when longer-term yields plunged. We’ll get to this mess in a moment. But in the first three weeks of January before the loophole was closed, banks ran up $27 billion in BTFP loans, which is why total assets dropped by only $50 billion in January, and not by close to $90 billion. During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s total assets dropped by $688 billion, while inflation was below or at the Fed’s target (1.8% core PCE in August 2019), and the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet. Now inflation has come down a lot, driven by price drops in durable goods, and a plunge in energy prices, but it’s still rocking and rolling in services, with “core services” CPI at an annualized rate of over 5%. QT on autopilot. Treasury securities: -$61 billion in January, -$1.08 trillion from peak in June 2022, to $4.69 trillion, the lowest since December 2020. The Fed has now shed 33% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that it had added during its pandemic QE. Treasury notes (2- to 10-year securities) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year securities) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS. The function of Treasury bills to steady the pace of QT. These short-term securities (1 month to 1 year) are included in the $4.69 trillion of Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed lets them roll off (doesn’t replace them when they mature) if not enough longer-term Treasury securities mature and roll off to get to the $60-billion monthly cap. As long as the Fed has T-bills, the roll-off of Treasury securities can reach the cap of $60 billion every month. When the Fed runs out of T-bills to fill in the gaps, the Treasury roll-off will start to fall below the $60 billion cap. From March 2020 through the ramp-up of QT, the Fed held $326 billion in T-bills that it constantly replaced as they matured (flat line in the chart). In September 2022, T-bills first started rolling off to fill in the gap to get the Treasury roll offs to $60 billion a month. In December, $6 billion in T-bills rolled off, reducing them to $210 billion. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$15 billion in January, -$323 billion from the peak, to $2.42 trillion, the lowest since August 2021. The Fed has now shed 24% of the MBS it had added during pandemic QE. The Fed only holds government-backed MBS, and taxpayers carry the credit risk. MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. Amid the higher mortgage rates, sales of existing homes have plunged 33% in 2023, so fewer mortgages were paid off, and mortgage refinancings have collapsed, which dramatically slowed the mortgage payoffs. As result, the pass-through principal payments to MBS holders have also collapsed, and those MBS are not coming off the balance sheet very quickly, with the MBS run-off between $15 billion and $21 billion a month, well below the $35-billion cap. Discount Window: $3.2 billion. Roughly in this range for months, and down from $153 billion in bank-panic March. The Discount Window is the Fed’s traditional liquidity supply to banks. The Fed currently charges banks 5.5%, and demands collateral at market value, and that’s expensive money for banks, unless they need to pile up some liquidity. Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): The BTFP was cobbled together in all haste over the bank-panic weekend in March 2023 after SVB had failed. To borrow at the BTFP, banks had to pay the Fed a rate equal to the one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10 basis points, fixed for the term of the loan of up to one year. That rate worked out to be a little lower than the rate at the Discount Window, and collateral requirements were looser. So banks used it. But starting in November, Treasury yields and related yields began to drop amid general rate-cut mania. The 1-year Treasury yield dropped from 5.4% at the end of October to 4.7% by the end of December. The one-year overnight index swap rate runs a little lower. By the end of December, banks could borrow below 4.7% at the BTFP, and then keep that cash in their reserve account at the Fed and collect 5.4% interest from the Fed, earning risk-free income off the difference. As rates dropped, they could refinance the loans they had taken out with lower-rate loans. The BTFP balance had been steady for months at about $108 billion. But in early November, with rates dropping, it exploded with this arbitrage. Wednesday last week it reached $168 billion. The cash stays at the Fed and doesn’t go anywhere, it just makes the banks some risk-free moolah.
Another Fed official says rate cuts likely 'later this year' -- Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she needs to see more evidence inflation is coming back to the Fed’s 2% target before lowering interest rates, but that those cuts could come "later this year." "I will need to see more evidence before considering adjusting the policy stance," Collins said in a speech in Boston. Collins is a non-voting member of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee, which decides whether rates go up or down. "That said, as we gain more confidence in the economy achieving the committee’s goals ... I believe it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy restraint later this year." Collins is the latest policymaker to pump the brakes on Wall Street expectations for an aggressive pace of cuts in 2024.Investors began the year predicting six cuts starting in March and Fed officials have been pushing back on those expectations for the last month.That includes Fed Chair Jay Powell, who said in a press conference last week that a March cut is "probably not the most likely case or what we'd call the base case." He also made the same point in an interview on the TV program "60 Minutes" that aired Sunday night.The language the Boston Fed president used Wednesday to describe when cuts could happen was similar to the words used Tuesday by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who also said the central bank could lower interest rates "later this year" while warning it would be a "mistake" to cut too soon. Another Fed official, Adriana Kugler, did not provide any additional hints Wednesday when delivering her first speech since being confirmed as a governor on the Federal Reserve Board.But Kugler did say at some point "the continued cooling of inflation and labor markets may make it appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate."Though she added that if progress on inflation stalls, it may be appropriate to hold the target range steady at its current level for longer.
Reporters Who Ask Tough Questions at Fed Press Conferences Have a Habit of Being Disappeared from the Room --The Fed’s longstanding relationship with reporters who are allowed to attend the Fed Chair’s press conferences is akin to a master class in Stockholm Syndrome. Your survival in this room depends on your subservience to intellectual capture by the woman who runs this room with the precision of a heat-seeking missile. A growing number of Fed watchers believe that it is Michelle Smith, the Director of Communications at the Fed for the past 23 years, who is quietly cracking the whip. Smith is now such a critical part of policing every word spoken to the public by or about the Fed that she appeared walking beside Fed Chair Powell in one of his rare interviews on 60 Minutes this past Sunday. Consider the following cases of disappeared reporters from the Fed’s press conferences. On September 7, 2021, reporter Michael Derby of the Wall Street Journal (paywall) broke the story about then Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan making million dollar plus stock trades while sitting on inside information from the Fed in 2020, a year of unprecedented market interventions at the Fed as a result of the economic dislocations from the COVID pandemic. At the next Fed press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on September 22, Derby had the following exchange with Powell:
- DERBY: Thank you for taking my question. You noted earlier in the press conference that you weren’t aware of the trading activity of the Boston and Dallas Fed Bank presidents. As you know, those, all 12 regional Fed Bank presidents, just went through the renomination process earlier this year. And Governor Brainard described it as a rigorous process at the time. So I want to know, did anybody know—did anybody at the Board level know about the stock trading activity? And, going forward, do you still have confidence in the Dallas and Boston Fed Bank presidents to do their job?
- POWELL: So these, I don’t need to tell you, we file, people file these reports annually. And I think they were just quite recently filed for 2020. So I don’t have any reason to think people at the Board would have known about particular trading that’s going on. They will see that—there are people at the Fed who see the, you know, see the trading reports when they’re, you know, when they’re annually filed. You know, in terms of having confidence and that sort of thing, I think no one is happy, no one on the FOMC is happy to be in this situation, to be having these questions raised. It’s something we take very, very seriously. This is an important moment for the Fed, and I’m determined that we will rise to the moment and handle it in ways that will stand up over time. I’m very reluctant to get ahead of the process and speculate, though, about different things. And, you know, when we have things to announce, we’ll go ahead and do that, but that’s really what I have for today.
- DERBY: One small follow-up. I mean, I know that you didn’t have the 2020 forms in hand, but you would have had past-year forms in hand. And at least in the case of, like, the Dallas disclosure forms, similar trading activity was shown in years past. So that, in theory, could have been something that came up in the renomination process.
Powell talked in circles around Derby’s last question. Derby’s questions were tame compared to our take on the matter. (See Robert Kaplan Was Trading Like a Hedge Fund Kingpin for Five Years while President of the Dallas Fed; a Dozen Legal Safeguards Failed to Stop Him.) Nonetheless, by the December 15, 2021 Fed press conference, Michelle Smith took questions from 12 different reporters – many from much smaller news outlets – before she called on Derby. By the March 16, 2022 Fed press conference, Derby had either completely disappeared from the room or was simply not being called on for questions. That is, his name does not appear in the official transcript of the press conference as do the other reporters who were called on. Then there is the case of Craig Torres, Federal Reserve and Economic reporter for Bloomberg News. At the January 26, 2022 Powell press conference, Torres waded deeper into the treacherous trading scandal waters. The exchange went as follows: […] Torres was explaining to Powell that there is no reason for the dates of Kaplan’s trades to be withheld from the public because of any ongoing investigation because that information, per the Fed’s disclosure rules, was previously legally owed to the American people and Kaplan didn’t provide it as legally required. When Kaplan made his multiple “over $1 million” trades in bets on which way the stock market would move using S&P 500 futures – during the year of 2020 when he was both sitting as a voting member of the Fed’s FOMC as well as making market-moving comments himself to the media – he was legally obligated to report the dates of each individual buy and sell on the form provided to him by the Dallas Fed. Every other regional Fed Bank President listed the dates of the buys and sells. But Kaplan simply wrote the word “multiple” where the date was required. (See Kaplan’s financial disclosure forms from 2015 through 2020 here.) By eliminating the dates from his financial disclosure forms, it was impossible to see if Kaplan was trading during Fed blackout periods and if he was shorting the market and then the dates when he covered his shorts. There was also the 2015 case of the Wall Street Journal reporter, Pedro da Costa, asking Fed Chair Janet Yellen an uncomfortable question about Fed leaks of confidential information and finding himself without a job.
CPI Inflation Data Produces Sigh Of Relief For The Federal Reserve, S&P 500 - The Federal Reserve rate-cut outlook may have just dodged a bullet as annual CPI revisions out Friday showed core inflation came down in the second half of 2023 as fast as earlier data showed. After the data, the S&P 500 rose solidly to another new record closing high.Previous reports had shown core CPI inflation running at a 3.3% annualized rate over the past three months. Revised data left that unchanged.December's consumer price index rose 0.2% vs. the prior month, down from the 0.3% gain initially reported. Core prices rose slightly slower than first reported in December, 0.275% vs. 0.31%, but that was offset by slightly bigger increases in October and November.Over the past six months, revised data shows core CPI inflation running at a 3.25% rate vs. 3.21% in earlier data.Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions on Friday morning affect only the seasonally adjusted CPI data, which means the 3.9% 12-month core inflation rate didn't change.When it comes to inflation, the recent trend matters almost as much as the 12-month inflation rate. The Fed's primary inflation rate, the core PCE price index, ended 2023 at 2.9%. While that was a big drop from 4.9% in 2022, it is still nearly a full point above the Fed's 2% target.What really fueled expectations of near-term and significant Fed rate cuts was the plunge in core PCE inflation to a 1.9% annual rate over the second half of 2023, from 4% in the first half.The best thing to happen to the S&P 500 in 2023 — with the possible exception of theartificial intelligence boom — was the dramatic comedown of inflation in the second half of the year, even as the economy gained steam. Yet Federal Reserve officials had indicated that Friday's consumer price index revisions could alter some of that good news and deal a potential setback to rate-cut expectations.Last year's seasonal adjustment shift lifted the 3-month annualized rate for core CPI inflation to 4.3% from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022.In a recent speech, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller made clear that a lot is riding on the updated seasonal adjustments for inflation. "My hope is that the revisions confirm the progress we have seen, but good policy is based on data and not hope."The CPI and PCE price index are constructed much differently. Housing costs account for over one-third of the CPI's weighting, but just 15% of PCE spending. Health care makes up 16% of PCE spending vs. just 6% of the CPI. That's because the CPI only reflects direct purchases by the consumer, not indirect spending, such as employer payments for employee health care.Partly because of those differences, core CPI inflation has run at 3.9% over the past year, a full percentage point higher than core PCE inflation.Still, most of the changes that affect seasonally adjusted CPI data will feed through to the PCE price index. Other PCE data comes from the producer price index, whose seasonal adjustment factors will be updated on Feb. 14.As of Friday afternoon, after the data revisions, markets were pricing in just 15.5% odds of the first rate cut coming at the March 20 Fed meeting. Markets see 59% odds of a rate cut by May 1, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.Markets see a year-end federal funds rate of 4.26%. That implies about 50% odds of five quarter-point rate cuts, and 50% odds of four cuts.
Early GDP Tracking: Solid Start for Q1 -- From Goldman: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.9% (qoq ar) and we left our domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +3.2% (qoq ar). [Feb 7th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on February 8, unchanged from February 7 after rounding. [Feb 8th estimate]
Powell: ‘The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path’ - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said “the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path” in a “60 Minutes” interview with Scott Pelley released Sunday.“The U.S. federal government’s on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable. I don’t think that’s at all controversial,” Powell said when asked if the national debt is a danger to the economy.The U.S. national debt topped $34 trillion for the first time ever in early January, just over three months after surpassing the $33 trillion mark, according to data released by the U.S. Treasury. Congress has punted on spending deadlines three times since the end of September as it grapples with how to fund the government amid tensions about the ballooning national debt. Under the latest stopgap measure passed in January, funding for four federal agencies will expire on March 1. Funding for the rest of the government is set to run out on March 8. President Biden and House Republicans faced off on the borrowing limit last spring, ultimately averting disaster days before the U.S. was set to default. But Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating from “AAA” to “AA+” in August, citing the increasing burden of the national debt and repeated partisan standoffs over the debt limit.Despite the Fed chair’s long-term worries about the national debt, he said members of the central bank’s rate-setting panel believe “the economy’s in a good place.”The economy has been growing quickly, clocking in at an annual rate of 3.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the latest data released by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.Inflation has also fallen drastically from its 9 percent peak in summer 2022 to 3.4 percent in December, according to the latest consumer price index (CPI). The Fed hiked interest rates from near zero in March 2022 to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent in June 2023, and they have held rates steady at subsequent meetings.Top Fed officials have signaled rate cuts on the horizon in 2024 but declined to cut rates following the January meeting last Wednesday, as expected. What was less expected was Powell’s suggestion that March rate cuts were off the table at a press conference following the announcement, a position he doubled down on during his “60 Minutes” interview.“I would say, and I did say yesterday, that I think it’s not likely that this committee will reach that level of confidence in time for the March meeting, which is in seven weeks,” Powell said.“The kinds of things that would make us want to move sooner would be if we saw weakness in the labor market or if we saw inflation really persuasively coming down,” he added.Powell and the Fed have taken heat from both sides of the political spectrum for their decision to keep interest rates at their highest level in more than two decades. Former President Trump accused Powell of being “political” and suggested the Republican appointee would cut rates to help Democrats during the upcoming election during a Fox Business interview on “Mornings with Maria” that aired Sunday.Some Senate Democrats also urged the Fed chair to cut rates ahead of last Wednesday’s meeting.“As the Fed weighs its next steps in the new year, we urge you to consider the effects of your interest rate decisions on the housing market and to reverse the troubling rate hikes that have put affordable housing out of reach for too many,” Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) wrote in a letter to Powell last Sunday.But Powell pushed back on any implication that politics would play a role in the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates in the coming months.“We do not consider politics in our decisions. We never do. And we never will,” Powell said. “Integrity is priceless. And at the end, that’s all you have.”
Record Large 10Y Auction Sees Stellar Demand, First Stop-Through In 12 Months - Today's 10Y auction was set to make history: the February refunding auction would sell $42BN in debt maturing on Feb 15, 2034, the largest amount ever for a 10 Year auction... ... and after yesterday's mediocre 3Y refunding, there were some concerns that the sheer size of today's issuance could lead to severe market indigestion. Those fears proved to be unfounded because moments ago the Treasury announced that the record amount of 10Y debt sold in a very strong auction, which priced at a high yield of 4.093%, up from 4.024% last month but stopped 1.2bps through the 4.105% When Issued. That was the first stop through for 10Y paper in a year, or since February, excluding the on the screws Sept 23 auction. The bid to cover was also solid, and at 2.56 it was above the 2.52 six-auction average if below last month's 2.56, which in turn was the highest since Feb 2023. The internal were even better, with Indirects awarded 70.1, the highest since last August, and solidly above last month's 66.1. And with Directs taking just 16.1%, the lowest since February 2023, that meant Dealers were left holding 13.0% of the auction the lowest since August.>
China Joins Russia In Condemning US Strikes In Middle East --After the Friday large-scale US strikes on Iranian proxy positions in Iraq and Syria, and following the Saturday and Sunday Western coalition attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen, China on Monday issued a blistering condemnation of what is sees as aggression against sovereign countries China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said in a press briefing, "Syria and Iraq are sovereign countries" and thus “China opposes any act that violates the UN Charter and infringes upon other countries’ territorial sovereignty and security.""The current situation in the Middle East is highly complex and sensitive," Wenbin added. "China urges relevant parties to earnestly observe the international law, remain calm, exercise restraint, and prevent the tensions in the region from escalating or even spiraling out of control."Beijing's critiques of this latest round of Western military intervention related to ongoing spillover from the Gaza war echo that of Russia's rhetoric. Russia soon after Biden's Friday airstrikes on Iraq and Syria called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to address the crisis.The Kremlin has gone so far as to accuse the US of stoking a great power confrontation and larger war for the Middle East."It is clear that the airstrikes were specifically intended to further escalate the conflict," Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. "By relentlessly attacking the facilities of allegedly pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria, the United States has been purposefully attempting to draw the largest countries in the region into the conflict." Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis have continued to give Chinese and Russian commercial shipping a free pass in the Red Sea, while attacking US, UK, Israeli-linked and other shipping vessels.Still, as VOA reports, "China's navy has started escorting Chinese cargo ships through the Red Sea, according to a shipping company and Chinese state media reports." Most major shipping companies are choosing to avoid the passage altogether.
For God’s Sake Joe, What the Hell Are You Doing? --It's three in the morning and I can’t sleep again. Those of us concerned about Gaza and the West Bank are spending sleepless nights and busy days trying desperately to pressure the Biden administration to stop its complicity in the relentless Israeli genocide in Gaza; to halt the provision of weapons and money to Israel; and to demand an end to the carnage.We awakened to the news that the U.S. has attacked Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in retaliation for militants firing missiles into U.S. troop areas in Syria and Jordan and Houthis targeting Red Sea cargo vessels. Why have there been attacks on U.S. troops and interests?The answer is simple. Because the U.S. is providing military weapons and international protection to Israel in its genocidal military operations in Gaza. It seems obvious to everyone but you, that for our national security, the U.S. must stop its irrational protection of Israeli war crimes and demand that Israel stop its massacre of Palestinians in Gaza.Scenes of another day of Israeli bombing of Gaza with tens of thousands of buildings destroyed, Israeli commandos storming a hospital and assassinating three young men as they slept in their hospital beds, heavy rains pouring into makeshift tents for the million Palestinians now crammed into the area around Rafah, the daily and nightly raids of Israeli military into the West Bank cities and villages destroying roads, homes, cultural centers, Israeli occupation forces stripping men and boys of their clothes, forcing them to kneel for hours in humiliating positions and beating them for days in detention camps, finding 30 bodies in a mass grave in a school yard, Palestinians who were shot to death with their hands tied behind them by Israeli forces.Every day we go to the offices of U.S. congresspersons and plead for them to back a ceasefire and to pressure the Biden administration to refuse to provide more weapons and money to the Israeli military. After 118 days of Israeli pounding of Gaza, most Senators and Representatives are still repeating some version of this: “No to a cease-fire. Israel has a right to self-defense. Israel has the right to destroy Gaza and kill as many Palestinians as is necessary to kill the last Hamas militant.”At least 10 Senators and Representatives have Israeli flags alongside the U.S. flag in front of their offices which brings into question where their loyalties lie. Rep. Brian Mast (R-Mich.) wore his Israel military uniform into the U.S. Congress in October and is one of the most hate-filled members of Congress, treating the deaths of Gaza children as just fine.Meanwhile, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), the only Palestinian-American member of Congress, continues to receive death threats. Those who speak out to stop the genocide in Gaza are targeted by the American Israeli Public Affairs Council (AIPAC) with incitement to violence messaging and their associated Super PAC running candidates to replace them in Congress.Protests in Washington against the genocide in Gaza and the massacres in the West Bank occur daily. A 9-day encampment in the narrow public land on each side of the two-lane road in front of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s home on Chain Bridge Road has brought Palestinian supporters from Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia who make sure Blinken know that he has blood on his hands for green-lighting the genocide in Gaza.Despite all of our efforts, it is likely that on Wednesday, February 7, 2024, the U.S. Senate will pass a national security supplemental to provide Israel with another 14 billion dollars, three times what the U.S. provides annually to Israel. Israel is already the largest recipient of U.S. military financing and the added $10 billion will blow up the foreign affairs budget. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has warned countries assisting with weapons used in a genocide that leaders are complicit and can be held liable. President Biden, in case your advisors have not mentioned this, bothyou and they are definitely up to your eyeballs in genocide and we and the world will hold you accountable.
To End 'Nightmare' in Gaza, Sanders Moves to Block Funding for Israeli Weapons - Calling on the United States to "end its complicity in the nightmare unfolding in Gaza," U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders on Friday said he would introduce an amendment to remove more than $10 billion from the foreign aid supplemental requested by President Joe Biden. The $10.1 billion has been proposed to pay for offensive weaponry funding for the Israeli government, which has killed at least 27,131 Palestinians in Gaza so far—including at least 11,500 children—and displaced 1.9 million."Twenty-seven thousand dead—two-thirds of them women and children," said the Vermont Independent. "Sixty-seven thousand wounded... 70% of housing units damaged or destroyed. And now, hundreds of thousands of children facing starvation.""This is unacceptable," added Sanders. "The United States cannot be complicit in this humanitarian disaster. That is why I will be offering an amendment to the supplemental bill to ensure zero funding for the continuation of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu's illegal, immoral war against the Palestinian people."Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) indicated Thursday that lawmakers are close to finalizing the text of the national security supplemental, which also includes funding for Ukraine and security at the U.S.-Mexico border.Schumer said he would file cloture on a motion to proceed with the supplemental on Monday, "leading to the first vote on the national security supplemental no later than Wednesday."Politico congressional reporter Burgess Everett said Sanders' amendment "will spark debate" but has little chance of passing.Despite the International Court of Justice's finding last month that it is "plausible" that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza and Americans' growing opposition to the U.S. government's support for Israel, the majority of federal lawmakers continue to claim that Israel is only acting in self-defense against Hamas as it bombards Gaza.
Senate Deal Would Block All Funding to UNRWA as Gazans Starve -- As the United Nations warned Monday that at least a quarter of civilians in Gaza are suffering from "catastrophic" food insecurity and the collapse of the healthcare system is causing disease to spread, the U.S. Senate doubled down on cutting funding for the U.N.'s top humanitarian agency serving Palestinians by including in a bipartisan package a provision that would block aid for the body.The proposed $118 billion Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, chiefly negotiated by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.),Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), and James Lankford (R-Okla.) includes $14.1 billion for Israel, which has killed at least 27,468 Palestinians in Gaza and at least 360 in the West Bank since beginning its assault on the occupied territories in October.But a provision notes that none of the $10 billion in humanitarian assistance for Palestinians and Ukrainians "may be made available for a contribution, grant, or other payment" to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).Just after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said in an interim ruling late last month that South Africa's claim that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza is "plausible," Israel announced it had discovered that 12 of the agency's 13,000 employees in Palestine had been involved in the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7.Israeli officials did not provide evidence confirming their allegations, but the announcement was followed by a swift suspension of UNRWA funding by countries including the United States, Canada, Finland, and the United Kingdom—imperiling the donor-supported agency's ability to continue providing shelter, food, sanitation, and other basic services to more than 1 million Palestinians who are sheltering in its facilities in Gaza.Now, said Lara Friedman, president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, the proposed package "bars all funding in the pipeline" to UNRWA. "I don't see any other way to read it."HuffPost reporter Akbar Shahid Ahmed noted that the provision's inclusion in the bill is a "huge concession from Democrats," several of whom proposed amendments to reaffirm the United States' commitment to a two-state solution; to demand that any countries receiving aid through the supplemental package follow "U.S. law, international humanitarian law, and the law of armed conflict"; and to maintain congressional oversight of military aid. None of the amendments were included in the final text. "Hard-right UNRWA critics are already celebrating this as a big win," said Ahmed.
House to Vote on $17.6 Billion in New Military Aid for Israel - The House will vote on a bill this week to provide $17.6 billion in new military aid to Israel to support the mass killing of Palestinians in Gaza.The House previously passed a $14.3 billion resolution for Israel but cut funds to the Internal Revenue Service, so it didn’t receive support from Democrats and was never brought to the Senate floor for a vote.The new bill adds over $3 billion for Israel and does not include spending cuts. Over in the Senate, negotiators reached a deal on border policy to advance a behemoth $110 spending bill that includes military aid for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. However, many Republicans are unhappy with the deal, and Johnson criticized Senate leadership for not including the House in negotiations.“Their leadership is aware that by failing to include the House in their negotiations, they have eliminated the ability for swift consideration of any legislation,” Johnson said on Saturday. “Next week, we will take up and pass a clean, standalone Israel supplemental package.”According to the House Appropriations Committee, the $17.6 billion includes funds to replenish Israel’s missile systems, provide Israel with advanced weapons systems, and produce more bombs and artillery shells. It also provides funding to replenish US stockpiles of weapons that have already been sent to Israel.The $17.6 billion is on top of the $3.8 billion Israel receives from the US each year. The US has also shipped a huge amount of munitions and other weapons to support the slaughter in Gaza, which has killed over 27,000 Palestinians, including over 11,500 children. The International Court of Justice’s ruling that it’s “plausible” Israel is committing genocide has not deterred US support. According to Ynet, over 25,000 tons of US weapons have been delivered to Israel since October 7.
Democrats lining up against stand-alone Israel aid bill - House Democrats are lining up in opposition to a Republican bill providing new military funding for Israel — but not without a lot of internal agonizing. At an animated closed-door meeting in the Capitol basement Tuesday morning, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and other top leaders told the caucus that they’ll oppose the bill when it hits the floor later in the day. “We are prepared to support any serious, bipartisan effort in connection with the special relationship between the United States and Israel, our closest ally in the Middle East,” Jeffries, along with Reps. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), wrote to Democrats in a letter released shortly after the meeting. “Unfortunately, the standalone legislation introduced by House Republicans over the weekend, at the eleventh hour without notice or consultation, is not being offered in good faith.” That position aligns them with President Biden, who has vowed to veto the proposal if it reaches his desk. And an overwhelming majority of House Democrats appear ready to get on board in voting against the bill. “This is a stunt. It’s a gotcha,” said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), a prominent Jewish lawmaker. “I’m very proud that the president has seen this for what it is.” The Democratic opposition would typically be inconsequential in a House chamber controlled by Republicans. But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is seeking to pass the Israel aid bill using a procedural tool, known as the suspension calendar, that requires two-thirds of the chamber to pass legislation. Democrats are widely supportive of providing their Middle Eastern ally with a new round of military help for its ongoing response of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. But Johnson’s bill excludes other provisions favored by Democrats, including humanitarian assistance for Palestinians in Gaza and new military funding for Ukraine. Absent the other foreign aid provisions, Democrats say they’ll oppose the stand-alone Israel bill when it hits the floor Tuesday evening — opposition that threatens to prevent the bill from hitting the two-thirds threshold needed to pass.
House Fails to Pass $17.6 Billion Israel Military Aid Bill - The House on Tuesday sank an effort by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to pass a $17.6 billion military aid bill for Israel to support the slaughter in Gaza.The bill was fast-tracked under the suspension of House rules, requiring it to have a two-thirds majority to be advanced to the Senate. But the bill failed in a vote of 250-180, with 166 Democrats and 14 Republicans voting against it.The bill was under threat of a veto from the White House since President Biden wants Congress to pass a $118 billion foreign military aid and border bill that includes about $14 billion for Israel and $60 billion for Ukraine. Most Democrats opposed the $17.6 billion bill for Israel due to the White House’s opposition, although some came out against unlimited support for Israel. The House previously passed a $14.3 billion bill for Israel that paid for the aid by cutting funding from the Internal Revenue Service, but it was opposed by Democrats and never taken up in the Senate. Some members of the House Freedom Caucus voted against the $17.6 billion bill for fiscal reasons and because they want to prioritize action on the border.
House torpedoes stand-alone Israel aid bill -The House on Tuesday rejected a bill to provide $17.6 billion in aid for Israel, sinking Congress’s latest effort to help its embattled Middle Eastern ally and throwing the fate of future foreign aid into question. The tally was 250-180 — short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass the measure — with critics in both parties joining forces to quash it. The stunning vote marked a defeat for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has opposed Democratic efforts to combine new Israel funding with other security provisions, including aid for Ukraine, and sought to pressure Democrats into swallowing the Israel piece as a stand-alone bill. Instead, Democrats voted overwhelmingly against the measure, siding with their counterparts in the Senate — who are still fighting for a broader foreign aid package — and President Biden, who had vowed to veto the bill if it reached his desk. Johnson’s gambit was also undercut by conservatives in his own GOP conference, whose opposition had nudged the Speaker to put the bill on a fast-track course — setting the threshold for passage at the higher two-thirds level — and whose “no” votes on final passage ensured it didn’t hit that mark. The conservatives were protesting Johnson’s decision not to offset the Israel funding with changes elsewhere in the budget, meaning the aid would have added to federal deficits. On the policy, Democrats are broadly supportive of the move to provide Israel with a new round of military aid. But the GOP’s Israel-only bill excludes other provisions they favor, including humanitarian assistance for Palestinians in Gaza, help for Taiwan, security funding for the U.S.-Mexico border and new military funding for Ukraine. Among those provisions, the Israel portion enjoys perhaps the most bipartisan support. And heading into Tuesday’s vote, Democrats were wary of separating out the popular provision that could help catalyze passage of a broader national security package in the future. “I don’t think anybody can accuse him of being anti-Israel,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), referring to Biden. “But he knows that if we pass this, the other stuff is dead.”
The Empire Depends On Our Unwillingness To Look At Its Crimes by Caitlin Johnstone - This entire sick dystopia is held together by psychological compartmentalization. By the fact that it’s more comfortable to avoid looking directly at the horrors of the status quo we live under, even though on some level we all know those horrors are there. All the shitlibs you see cheering for Biden right now are on some level aware that he’s backing a genocide of unbelievable savagery that is inflicting unfathomable amounts of suffering upon our fellow human beings, but they avoid looking at this reality directly. All the information is right there right out in the open, but they cognitively squirm and twist away from it so that they see only Biden’s acts like slightly reducing America’s student loan debt and not being Donald Trump.They do this because to really wrap their minds around the depravity of what Biden is doing would shatter their world. It would mean letting in some very scary truths about their nation, their government and their political system that they’d rather avoid noticing. It would mean a crushing deluge of cognitive dissonance until they dramatically revised their worldview into something that could allow for a Democratic president behaving like a complete monster. It would mean having to completely restructure their understanding of the world they live in.That takes effort. It takes emotional labor. It takes a willingness to experience a high degree of psychological discomfort as you wade into the muck of reality to face the inconvenient facts you’ve been avoiding looking at your entire adult life. It takes a willingness to experience this unpleasantness not just intellectually, but emotionally and viscerally as well. You’ve got to look at it with your eyes and your mind and your heart and your guts. And you have to somehow find the time and psychological spaciousness to do all this in a society that is designed to keep ordinary people busy, tired, dysfunctional, and stressed out.A vast globe-spanning empire is built on the foundation of how difficult it is to look directly at something that is extremely unpleasant to look at, about which you have been propagandized and indoctrinated your entire life into accepting as normal. In school we’re taught that we live in a democracy and that our government is basically good while other governments are bad and their countries are places you would not want to live in, and then in adulthood this false indoctrination is reinforced and built upon by propaganda from the mass media. Before we have time to learn how to think critically, we are spoon-fed a worldview designed by the powerful for the benefit of the powerful, and we will experience cognitive dissonance if at any time we are presented with information that contradicts it.That’s the primary job of mass media propaganda: not so much to convince us to believe new stories about weapons of mass destruction or whatever, but to build and reinforce a worldview within us which is fiercely loyal to establishment power structures. That’s why the propaganda is served up in two different ideological flavors: one for the shitlibs and one for the rightists. You’re funneled into whichever mainstream, power-serving echo chamber best suits your conditioning and disposition, and then you are fed a power-serving worldview therein which you will zealously defend as the gospel truth.It’s a highly effective trap, but it’s not inescapable. Anyone who’s ever escaped from an abusive relationship, a dysfunctional family or a cult knows that it is possible to find your way out of a psychological cage that has been built for you by a skillful manipulator, even if there were times in the past when you hadn’t even known the cage bars were there. The light of truth has a way of finding cracks through which to enter, and all it takes to start things off is a faint little glimmer.We can fight the machine by creating as many of those cracks as possible, which in practice looks like doing everything we can to wake our fellow humans up to the abusive relationship we are in with the western empire. Finding as many ways as possible to show as many eyes as we can the murder, the injustice, the exploitation and the ecocide, not just intellectually but emotionally as well. Many of the indoctrinated are too far gone to be reached right now, or are too personally invested in the status quo they defend, but many others are right on the cusp of leaving the cult of the empire, ready to take the leap if they are just given a good enough reason to.
Drone that killed US troops in Jordan likely evaded radars: Report --The drone that killed three U.S. troops at a base in Jordan late last month was likely undetected as it approached too low in the sky, with no air defense system on site that could down it, according to a new report.U.S. Central Command’s initial assessment of the attack found that the Iranian-made drone was probably missed “due to its low flight path,” a U.S. defense official told The Washington Post.The Tower 22 base where the attack happened doesn’t have large air defense systems, and the official said the installation didn’t possess weapons that can “kill” aerial threats, such as drones and missiles, with only electronic warfare systems meant to disable or disrupt their flight. The new assessment appears to contradict earlier reports that the enemy drone was mistaken for an American one returning to the base about the same time, which let it pass unchallenged through defenses and hit a troop barracks at the small installation. Three service members were killed and more than 40 were injured, including eight who had to be medically evacuated. Asked about the findings later on Tuesday, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said CENTCOM is still in the midst of its review on the deadly attack and could not comment until it was finished. “We’re still assessing exactly what happened in that attack. And of course, CENTCOM and the [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin] will determine if there’s any change or needs to be any change to our defensive posture at Tower 22 or any other base in the region. But I just don’t have more for you on that specific attack,” she told reporters.
US Drone Strike in Baghdad Kills High-Ranking Kataib Hezbollah Commander - A US drone strike targeting a vehicle in Baghdad on Wednesday killed three members of Kataib Hezbollah, including a high-ranking commander, marking another US escalation in Iraq.Kataib Hezbollah is a Shia militia that’s part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of Iraqi militias that was founded in 2014 to fight ISIS. The PMF is part of Iraq’s security forces, and the Iraqi government has been furious over recent US airstrikes against the PMF.A PMF official speaking to Rudaw identified the slain Kataib Hezbollah commander as Abu Baqir al-Saadi. US Central Command released a statement confirming the US was behind the drone strike.CENTCOM said the assassination was in response to attacks on US troops in the region. The command claimed that al-Saadi was responsible for attacks on US troops. CENTCOM said its forces “conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on US service members, killing a Kataib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on US forces in the region.”The drone strike has outraged many in Iraq and sparked protests near the US embassy in Baghdad. According to AP, Iraqi security forces have closed off Baghdad’s Green Zone, where most foreign diplomatic missions are located, in response to calls for protesters to storm the US embassy.The drone strike came a few days after the US launched heavy airstrikes across eastern Syria and western Iraq that it said was retaliation for the drone attack on a base in Jordan that killed three US troops. Before the US launched the bombing campaign, Kataib Hezbollah announced it was suspending military operations against the US.
Biden Pulls A Trump: Targeted Drone Assassination Kills Iran-Backed Militia Leaders In Baghdad -- Did President Biden just pull a Trump? It appears so. There's been an assassination by drone strike of a high-ranking member of the Iran-linked militant group Kataib Hezbollah in Baghdad Wednesday night. The operation appears similar to the 2020 killing of Gen. Soleimani by drone strike on his convoy outside Baghdad's airport.Several blasts were heard in the Iraqi capital after which an SUV was seen engulfed in a large blaze. A security official has been quoted in one prominent regional newspaper as saying, "The car belonged to the Popular Mobilization Forces," in reference to the pro-Iran Shia militia which works closely in tandem with Iraq's national army. "At least two PMF leaders were inside the car," the security source said.The high-ranking militia member is being initially identified as Wissam Mohammed Al Saiedi according to early reports. A Kataib Hezbollah associated Telegram channel has since mourned "the engineer of the missiles of the Iraqi resistance." An initial statement from the Baghdad police indicated "A car was on fire in Baghdad's eastern neighborhood of Al Mashtal." Additionally the statement said "it was probably hit by a missile fired from a drone. We are investigating.”Israeli media is reporting:"Two officials with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq said that one of those killed was Wissam Mohammed "Abu Bakr" al—Saadi, the commander in charge of Kataib Hezbollah's operations in Syria."Within hours later, the Pentagon has owned up to the attack with the following Central Command statement: At 9:30 p.m. (Baghdad Time) February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region.There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time. The United States will continue to take necessary action to protect our people. We will not hesitate to hold responsible all those who threaten our forces’ safety.
Iraqi PM Declares Three Days of Mourning for Those Killed in US Airstrikes - On Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani declared three days of mourning for the Iraqis killed by US airstrikes that were launched on Friday.According to a statement from al-Sudani’s media office, the prime minister declared the days of mourning “across state departments and institutions as a tribute to the martyrs of our armed forces and civilians who lost their lives due to the US airstrikes on the Akashat and Qa’im areas in the western Anbar province.”The statement said Iraq was also summoning the US envoy to protest the strikes. “In protest against the American aggression that targeted Iraqi military and civilian sites, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will summon the Charge d’Affaires of the United States Embassy in Baghdad, David Burger,” the statement said.The Iraqi government said 16 people were killed in the strikes, including militants and civilians. Later, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of militias that’s part of Iraq’s security forces, named 16 of its members who were killed in the strikes.The PMF said on Sunday that Iraq must be “cleansed” of US forces. “The American aggression was a direct targeting of the Popular Mobilization Forces. This incident will not go unnoticed because it represents a shameless targeting,” said PMF leader Falih al-Fayyadh at a funeral for the slain fighters. “The land of Iraq must be cleansed of foreign presence.”Since mid-October, US forces in Iraq and Syria have come under attack over 160 times in response to President Biden’s full-throated support for Israel’s slaughter in Gaza. An umbrella group of Shia militias that calls itself the Islamic Resistance of Iraq took credit for most of the attacks.The US airstrikes launched on Friday came after the January 28 drone attack at a base in Jordan near the Syrian border that killed three US soldiers. The US launched several rounds of airstrikes in Iraq and Syria over the past few months, but Friday’s attack was the most extensive. US Central Command said 85 targets were hit, and about 125 munitions were dropped on Iraq and Syria.
Iraq Repeats Call for US Forces to Withdraw After Baghdad Drone Strike - Iraq has repeated its call for an end to the US military presence following a US drone strike in Baghdad that killed a senior member of Kataib Hezbollah, a Shia militia that’s part of Iraq’s security forces.Iraqi military spokesman Yahya Rasool said the US “conducted a blatant assassination through an airstrike in the heart of a residential neighborhood in the capital, Baghdad, showing no regard for civilian lives or international laws.”Rasool said that by launching the strike, “the American forces jeopardize civil peace, violate Iraqi sovereignty, and disregard the safety and lives of our citizens.”The US-led international coalition based in Iraq is supposedly in the country to fight ISIS, but the presence is more about trying to counter Iran’s influence. Rasool said the “coalition consistently deviates from the reasons and objectives for its presence on our territory.”The US claimed the Kataib Hezbollah commander they targeted was responsible for attacks on US troops. Since mid-October, US troops bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack over 160 times in response to President Biden’s support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza.A January 28 drone attack that killed three US troops in Jordan led to the US launching heavy airstrikes in Iraq and Syria last Friday that killed around 40 people.The Iraqi government has been opposed to all recent US airstrikes in the country and has been calling for an end to the US presence for months now. Rasool said the latest drone strike “compels the Iraqi government more than ever to terminate the mission of this coalition, which has become a factor for instability.” The US and Iraq started talks on the future of the US presence at the end of January. But for now, the US appears determined to stay despite the risk of the situation escalating into a full-blown war.
White House Walks Back False Claim That It Notified Iraq Before Launching Airstrikes - The White House has walked back a false claim it made about the US notifying the Iraq government before launching a series of airstrikes across eastern Syria and western Iraq on Friday.White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby claimed on Friday that the US did inform the Iraqi government, the US’s supposed ally in the country. But Iraq denied the claim, and another NSC spokesperson admitted Kirby’s claim was false.“For operational security, we did not provide any kind of official pre-notification with specific details on these strikes,” an NSC spokesperson told The Intercept.Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani declared three days of mourning for those killed by the US airstrikes, which killed members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a militia coalition that’s part of the Iraqi security forces. The Iraqi government said 16 were killed, including civilians, while the PMF said 16 of its members were killed.The White House ordered the strikes following a January 28 drone attack in Jordan that killed three US troops, which the US blamed on the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a shadowy umbrella group of Shia militias. US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under attack over 160 times since October in response to President Biden’s support for the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.Al-Sudani has been calling for an end to the US presence, and the US and Iraq started talks on the issue at the end of January. But for now, the US appears determined to stay as it’s escalated the situation by launching the bombing campaign. On Sunday night, six US Kurdish allies were killed in a drone attack on a US base in US-occupied eastern Syria.
US escalation against Iran threatens all-out war in Middle East - On Friday, the United States carried out airstrikes on seven locations throughout Iraq and Syria, in what US officials said was the beginning of weeks or even months of attacks across the region. Over the next two days, Saturday and Sunday, the US and UK launched further airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The attacks mark “the beginning of our response and there will be more steps to come,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union. In other words, the United States’ “endless war” in the Middle East, which has killed millions of people and destroyed entire societies over the course of the past three decades, is entering a new and more deadly stage. US officials have made it clear that a central target of the US military offensive is Iran. Appearing on “Meet the Press” Sunday, Sullivan was asked directly if the United States would rule out strikes “inside Iran.” Sullivan declared he would not do so, stating, “I’m not going to get into what’s on the table and off the table when it comes to the American response.” When Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson followed Sullivan on the same program, he made an even more explicit threat to attack Iran. When asked, “Do you want to see strikes inside Iran?” Johnson replied, “It should not be off the table.” The back-to-back appearances by officials of both the Democratic-controlled White House and the Republican-led House of Representatives were meant to convey the unanimity within the US political establishment for the escalation of the war in the Middle East. The Biden administration is proceeding with staggering recklessness, inflaming a regional war that threatens to draw in the entire world. A full-scale US war with Iran would have catastrophic human, political and economic consequences, eclipsing even the bloodbath caused by the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Jake Sullivan Refuses to Rule Out US Airstrikes Inside Iran - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Sunday refused to rule out direct US airstrikes inside Iran while discussing the widespread bombing the US launched in Iraq and Syria on Friday.Appearing on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Sullivan signaled the bombing campaign is not over, saying the US is planning “more actions.” When asked if the US has ruled out launching attacks on Iranian territory, he said, “Look, sitting on a national TV program, I’m not going to rule in and rule out any activity anywhere.”The US launched the strikes in response to the drone attack that killed three US troops on a small base in Jordan on the Syrian border. The US blamed Iran for the attack because it arms the Shia militias the US believes were responsible but acknowledges it has no evidence Tehran was involved.When announcing the strikes, US Central Command said it targeted “Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups.” Direct US attacks on Iranian personnel risk provoking a major war with Iran, but so far, there’s no indication the US bombing killed any Iranians.In Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said 16 of its members were killed in the strikes. The PMF is a coalition of Iraqi militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS. The PMF is officially part of Iraq’s security forces and fought on the same side as the US in major battles against ISIS.In Syria, unconfirmed reports say 23 people were killed. The Syrian government said some of its soldiers and civilians were killed but did not give a specific number.Sullivan was asked if the US strikes killed any members of the IRGC. “We are still assessing the battle damage. Our CENTCOM, Central Command, is looking at the capabilities we have reduced and the casualties that were incurred,” he said.
CNN's CEO Is Making Staff Churn Out Israel Propaganda by Caitlin Johnstone -- One of the noblest and most important things a western journalist can do these days is help expose the propagandistic manipulations of the mainstream western press institutions who have duped our civilization into consenting to a profoundly dysfunctional status quo which does not serve the interests of normal human beings. Unfortunately this rarely happens, because western journalists tend to view the mainstream press as allies and potential employers. This happens to be one such rare occasion, and it happened in one of the lastplaces you’d probably have guessed if you follow mass media propaganda with a critical eye. The Guardian has a great new article out titled “CNN staff say network’s pro-Israel slant amounts to ‘journalistic malpractice’” by a guy named Chris McGreal which cites multiple CNN staff members and internal documents to reveal the immense top-down pressure in the network to tilt coverage heavily in favor of Israel. McGreal writes the following: “CNN is facing a backlash from its own staff over editorial policies they say have led to a regurgitation of Israeli propaganda and the censoring of Palestinian perspectives in the network’s coverage of the war in Gaza. “‘The majority of news since the war began, regardless of how accurate the initial reporting, has been skewed by a systemic and institutional bias within the network toward Israel,’ said one CNN staffer. ‘Ultimately, CNN’s coverage of the Israel-Gaza war amounts to journalistic malpractice.’” McGreal’s sources say CNN’s wildly biased coverage of Israel’s assault on Gaza is the direct result of edicts from the network’s new CEO Mark Thompson, who assumed his role two days after the October 7 attack. From 2012 to 2020 Thompson was the president and CEO of The New York Times, which is currently experiencing its own internal strife due to the pro-Israel bias of that outlet. Before his NYT executive gig Thompson was the director-general of the BBC, where he came under fire multiple times for the pro-Israel bias he imposed on the British state broadcaster. In 2005 he held meetings in Jerusalem with then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon with the reported aim to “build bridges with the country’s political class,” immediately after which he removed BBC correspondent Orla Guerin from Jerusalem following accusations of “antisemitism” made against her by the Israeli government. In 2009 he was hotly criticized for choosing not to air the Disasters Emergency Committee appeal for Gaza, and in 2011 he presided over the decision to censor the lyrics“free Palestine” from a performance by rapper Mic Righteous on BBC Radio 1Xtra. This is the sort of person who gets hired to multiple executive positions in multiple highly influential western media platforms. If you’ve ever wondered why it looks like the western press function in pretty much the same way as the state propaganda services in the autocracies the west proudly sets itself apart from, this is why. The corporate media are owned and controlled by plutocrats who have a vested interest in preserving the status quo power structure upon which their kingdoms are built, and state broadcasters like the BBC have the same interest for the same reason. They decide who the executives of those outlets will be, and those executives make policy and hiring decisions which cause the outlet to function in a way that is indistinguishable from state propaganda. These are the people who’ve been pulling the wool over the eyes of the mainstream public and manipulating the masses into thinking, speaking, working, consuming, and voting in ways that serve the interests of the ruling power structure. In this way they are able to ensure that revolutionary opposition to that power structure remains a fringe minority position, even as that power structure wages wars, sponsors genocides, destroys the biosphere, and keeps everyone poor, sick, and stupid.
US Blocks Yemen-Saudi Peace Deal - The US is purposely blocking a Yemen peace deal that was negotiated between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.The US decision to re-designate the Houthis as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists” will block the payment of public sector workers living in Houthi-controlled Yemen, who have gone without pay for years.The payment of civil workers has been a key demand of the Houthis and is part of the first phase of the peace deal. The Houthis had asked for the salaries to be paid for using oil revenue that goes to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, whose leaders are mainly based in Saudi Arabia. It’s unclear if the Saudi side agreed to the Houthi demand or if they decided to pay the salaries using other means.The first phase of the peace deal would also fully open Yemen’s airports and sea ports that have been under blockade since 2015, another aspect of the deal that will be complicated by the new US sanctions, which will go into effect later this month.A US official told the Times that the US would only allow the payment of Yemeni civil salaries if the Houthis choose the path of “peace” and stop attacking shipping in the Red Sea. But the Houthis, who govern the most populated area of Yemen, have been clear the operations will only stop once the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza ends.Instead of pressuring Israel to stop its onslaught, President Biden launched a new war against the Houthis, which has dramatically escalated the situation. The Houthis are now targeting American and British commercial shipping, and there’s no sign they will back down.Since January 12, the US has launched at least 18 rounds of missile strikes on Houthi-controlled Yemen. President Biden has acknowledged the strikesare not “working” since they haven’t stopped Houthi attacks. But he vowed to continue bombing Yemen anyway.The US supported a Saudi/UAE-led coalition in Yemen in a brutal war that killed at least 377,000 people between 2015 and 2022. More than half of those killed died of starvation and disease caused by the bombing campaign and blockade.
Saudi Arabia Rebukes US Comments on Israel Normalization - Saudi Arabia released a statement on Wednesday rebuking a US commenton the possibility of Israel-Saudi normalization.National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the US received “positive feedback” during talks with Saudi Arabia about a normalization deal with Israel. But Riyadh released a statement rejecting his comments and saying the Kingdom would normalize with Israel only if the Palestinians get a state.“Regarding the discussions between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America on the Arab-Israeli peace process, and in light of what has been attributed to the US National Security [Council] Spokesperson, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that the position of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always been steadfast on the Palestinian issue and the necessity that the brotherly Palestinian people obtain their legitimate rights,” the statement reads.“The Kingdom has communicated its firm position to the US administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip stops and all Israeli occupation forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip,” the statement adds.Saudi Arabia has long held the position that it would only open up diplomatic relations with Israel if there was a two-state solution. Before October 7, reports indicated that Riyadh was willing to concede on that issue as its main priority was getting a defense commitment from the US. But in the wake of October 7 and the brutal Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, things appear to have changed for the Saudis. US officials have floated the idea of a post-war deal that involves Saudi-Israel normalization and the establishment of a Palestinian state. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said he would not accept a Palestinian state in any future scenario.
Poll: Half of US Adults Think Israel Has Gone 'Too Far' in Gaza - Half of American adults believe the brutal Israeli assault on Gaza has gone “too far,” according to a new poll from AP-NORC.The poll, conducted from January 25-29, found 50% of respondents thought the slaughter went too far, compared with 40% when the same question was asked back in November.The new poll showed 31% of respondents believed Israel’s assault has “been about right,” while 15% think it has “not gone far enough.” Israel has killed over 27,000 Palestinians since mid-October, including over 11,500 children.The opposition to the mass killing of Palestinians is stronger among Democrats but is growing among Republicans. Only 18% of Republicans said the Israeli campaign had gone too far in November, which rose to 33% in the latest poll.The opposition among Democrats has been put on display at President Biden’s campaign events, which are frequently disrupted by protesters calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Some demonstrators have called the president “Genocide Joe” due to his staunch support for Israel.
Biden: Israel's actions in Gaza are 'over the top' - President Joe Biden on Thursday described Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza as “over the top” in a news conference at the White House. In response to reporters’ shouted questions, the president expounded on his push for aid in Gaza and said the ongoing violence “has to stop.” “There are a lot of innocent people who are starving. A lot of innocent people in trouble and dying. And it has to stop,” Biden said. Biden has taken flak from the Democratic Party’s left flank over his support for Israel’s recent actions in the Gaza strip. His Thursday remarks were some of his sharpest criticism yet of the U.S.'s Middle Eastern ally. The president further said that Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi “initially ... did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in. I talked to him. I convinced him to open the gate.” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a critic of Israel’s conduct as it retaliates against Hamas, said of Biden’s comment, “A just war still needs to be weighed justly.” The president’s main focus in the news conference was addressing the special counsel report released Thursday supporting the Justice Department’s decision not to charge Biden for mishandling classified documents.
Russia quiet on Tucker Carlson’s visit to Moscow - Russia is keeping its cards close to its chest over the swirling speculation that former Fox News host Tucker Carlson could interview Russian President Vladimir Putin while on his trip to Moscow.The possibility was raised over the weekend when Carlson was spotted at multiple spots n Russia’s capital city, including at the Bolshoi Theatre and dining at a hotel, according to a Reuters report.Pressed on the prospect, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stopped short of denying a possible interview and instead pointed to the “many” foreign journalists who visit Russia.“Many foreign journalists come to Russia every day, many continue to work here, and we welcome this,” Peskov said, according to the news wire. “We have nothing to announce in terms of the president’s interviews to foreign media.”In a separate interview released by the Izvestia newspaper, Carlson described Moscow as “beautiful,” per Reuters.“I just wanted to see it because, you know, I have read so much about it but I have never seen it before,” he said.Asked if he was in Russia to interview Putin, Carlson responded, “We’ll see,” and reportedly smiled. Carlson would become the first Western journalist to interview Putin during the nation’s war with Ukraine, Reuters noted.Carlson launched a new subscription site in December for fans who want to pay for additional content. It came months after he was ousted from Fox News because of his criticism of company management. He now hosts a periodical news and political commentary show for free on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.He has interviewed several high-profile U.S. politicians since launching the show, including former President Trump, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).
Top Biden aides meet with Arab American and Muslim community leaders in Michigan -Senior White House officials met with Arab and Muslim American community leaders in Michigan Thursday, amid frustrations in those communities over the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.“This meeting was held to ensure that the White House and those with the ability to change the course of the genocide unfolding in Gaza very clearly hear and understand the demands of our community – directly from us,” Dearborn, Mich., Mayor Abdullah Hammoud (D) said in a thread of posts on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.“We remained uncompromising in our values and our demands for a permanent ceasefire, ending unrestricted military support to the State of Israel, and expediting humanitarian aid and funding to [the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East,] among others,” Hammoud continued in the thread.White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also discussed the meeting in her daily press briefing Thursday, saying that it is a part “of the Biden-Harris ongoing outreach to Muslim and Arab Americans.”“[W]e want to hear directly from them. We want to hear their concerns. We believe it’s important for — for these leaders to be — to be able to speak directly to officials in the White House,” Jean-Pierre said.The top aides’ trip to Michigan, first reported on by CNN, reportedly featured Samantha Powers, United States Agency for International Development administrator; Tom Perez, Office of Intergovernmental Affairs director Tom Perez; Jon Finer, principal deputy national security adviser; Steve Benjamin, director of the Office of Public Engagement; Jamie Citron, principal deputy director of the Office of Public Engagement; Mazen Basrawi, NSC director for partnerships and global engagement; and Dan Koh, deputy director of the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. In remarks from the White House Thursday, Biden called Israel’s response in Gaza to October attacks by Palestinian militant group Hamas “over the top.”“I’ve been pushing really hard, really hard to get humanitarian assistance into Gaza,” Biden said. “There are a lot of innocent people who are starving, lot of innocent people who are in trouble and dying. And it’s got to stop.”
Tucker Carlson confirms interview with Putin -- Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson said Tuesday he had secured an interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin that he plans to publish in the near future.The sit-down will mark the first time a member of the Western media will interview Putin since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine that sparked the ongoing war between the two countries.“We are not encouraging you to agree with what Putin may say in this interview,” Carlson said in a video posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “But we are urging you to watch it. You should know as much as you can. And then, like a free citizen and not a slave, you can decide for yourself.”Carlson did not specify when his interview with Putin would publish, but during his four-minute announcement, he blasted the American media and U.S. government for what he described as blind support for Ukraine in its war effort.Carlson has for years been critical of U.S. involvement in the conflict, the Ukrainian government and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom he said he has also requested an interview. Speaking from what appeared to be an elevated balcony in Moscow, Carlson acknowledged what he called “risks to conducting an interview like this” and noted he and his crew paid for the trip to Moscow themselves and did not take any financial assistance from government groups to travel.A former pundit at Fox News, Carlson was pulled off the air by the network last spring and has since launched his own media company and new program on X.He said Elon Musk, who owns the social media platform, has promised not to “censor” or suppress the interview, which will not be placed behind a paywall.
Putin tells Tucker Carlson Ukraine war can be ‘over in a few weeks’ – Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t remember the last time he spoke with his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden, had a “personal relationship” with his predecessor Donald Trump, and reckons his country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine could end in a few weeks — if the West would just stop helping Kyiv defend itself.These nuggets of Putin-think emerged from a two-hour, hotly anticipated interview the Russian president granted to ex-Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson, which was published on the far-right commentator’s website on Thursday.When asked by Carlson about the possibility of peace in Ukraine, Putin said: “If you really want to stop fighting, you need to stop supplying weapons,” referring to Western aid to Kyiv. “It will be over within a few weeks. That’s it,” he added.Speaking of the goals of what he called the “special military operation” in Ukraine, Putin said they had yet to be achieved, because one of the aims “is de-Nazification.” For the first time, Putin expanded on what he means by that. “This means the prohibition of all kinds of neo-Nazi movements. We have to get rid of those people who maintain this concept and support this practice and try to preserve it,” he said. Asked about when he last spoke to U.S. President Joe Biden, Putin said “I cannot remember when I talked to him,” adding that the two last spoke before the Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Carlson never mentioned former President Donald Trump by name, but Putin did. “I had such personal relationship with Trump,” he said, adding he also personally liked George W. Bush.Asked for his thoughts on X owner Elon Musk, Putin said he was rumored to have implanted a chip in a human brain, adding: “I think there’s no stopping Elon Musk. He will do as he sees fit.”Asked about Evan Gershkovich, the 32-year-old Wall Street Journal correspondent who has been in pre-trial detention for almost a year on espionage charges — allegations he and his employer have strongly rebuffed — Putin said the two countries’ special services were “in contact with one another” and there was “no taboo to settle this issue.”“He’s not just a journalist. I reiterate. He’s a journalist who is secretly getting confidential information,” Putin said in answer to Carlson’s objections that Gershkovich is clearly not a spy.Carlson also asked Putin about the attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September 2022 — prompting a curious exchange.“Who blew up Nord Stream?” Carlson asked. Putin responded: “You for sure.” The pundit responded: “I was busy that day. I did not blow up Nord Stream.” Putin jokingly parried back that while Carlson personally had an alibi for the day of the bombings, the CIA had none. The Russian didn’t present any evidence to back up his accusations — which Washington has repeatedly denied — arguing instead that only the U.S. would have the capability and interest in blowing up the pipeline.
Medvedev Warns Russia Has 'No Choice' But To Unleash Nuclear 'Apocalypse' If Attacked By NATO Not for the first time, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has warned that a direct war between Moscow forces and NATO would lead to nuclear apocalypse.The current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council issued the warning on Telegram Wednesday, in response to recent statements and reports that some European leaders are telling their populations to 'prepare for war'. For example, just last month UK Army chief General Patrick Sanders called on authorities to "mobilize the nation" to prepare for war with Putin, and that the population needs a "shift" in thinking to be ready.Medvedev mocked this and other examples of NATO leaders accusing Moscow of seeking a broader war as but "dangerous drivel". He said that this all about trying to bolster support for sending more weapons to Kiev amid what's become war fatigue among Western publics.According to Russian media translation of his words, Medvedev said this is part of efforts to prop up Ukraine—"a dying country that is foreign to taxpayers"—while ignoring problems at home. "Therefore, every day the leaders of these countries broadcast: We need to prepare for war with Russia and continue to help Ukraine," he wrote.That's when he said that people in the West have to be told the blunt truth. Medvedev underscored that the Russian response to attack by NATO would without doubt be "asymmetrical". He explained:"Since our military capabilities are incomparable, we will simply have no choice. The response will be asymmetrical. To protect the territorial integrity of our country, ballistic and cruise missiles with special warheads will be used... This will be the proverbial Apocalypse. The end of everything."This is certainly not the first time that Medvedev, known for this bellicose and hawkish rhetoric, has warned of nuclear apocalypse. But it is the clearest he has ever spelled out that the Kremlin would not hesitate to activate its nuclear arsenal if Russian territory is directly threatened by NATO. His comments also come at a very dangerous moment where Ukraine security services are increasingly targeting oil refineries on Russian soil with drone and missile attacks, sometimes at long ranges.Moscow has accused Western and NATO intelligence services of assisting with such attacks. Recently it has accused France of maintaining mercenaries in the northern city of Kharkiv, in order to mount attacks on nearby Belgorod Oblast. There are rising fears that this 'indirect' fighting or proxy war could drift into direct 'live fire' between Russia and NATO countries, but so far this has been narrowly avoided.
Raytheon Awarded $68 Million Contract to Supply Taiwan With Glide Bombs - The Pentagon has awarded Raytheon, the former employer of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, a $68 million contract to supply Taiwan with air-to-surface glide bombs.The contract is for 50 AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOW), which can be fired by Taiwan’s fleet of F-16s and have a range of up to 68 miles. The 50 bombs are part of an arms deal that was initially approved by the Trump administration in 2017.The glide bombs are not expected to be delivered until 2028. They will be mainly manufactured in Tucson, Arizona, the home of Raytheon Missile & Defense.According to The South China Morning Post, the deal for Raytheon is the first weapons supply contract for Taiwan announced by the Pentagon since the island’s presidential elections.Vice President Lai Ching-te of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party won the election and will be inaugurated in May. He is expected to continue moving closer to the US, following the policies of the current president, Tsai Ing-wen, although the mainland-friendly Kuomintang secured the speakership in Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan.China is strongly opposed to any US military support for Taiwan, including weapons sales. The US has sold weapons to Taiwan since severing diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 and began providingunprecedented military aid in 2023. The arming of Taiwan and new US diplomatic support for Taiwan is being done in the name of deterrence, but the policies have significantly increased tensions.
Senate Confirms China Hawk Kurt Campbell as Deputy Secretary of State - On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed China hawk Kurt Campbell as the deputy secretary of state, the second highest ranking position in the State Department.Campbell is taking the position after serving as President Biden’s top Asia official on the National Security Council. He worked in the Obama administration’s State Department from 2009-2013 and oversaw a policy known as the Asia “pivot,” which began the US military buildup in the region to prepare for a future war with China.Back in 2021, Campbell said that when it came to China, the “period that was broadly described as engagement has come to an end” and that the “dominant paradigm” in the US-China relationship would be competition. Since then, tensions between the two nations have escalated as the US imposed new harsh economic sanctions, increased support for Taiwan, and continued to build up its military presence in the Asia Pacific.Campbell is replacing Wendy Sherman, who retired in July 2023. His appointment signals the administration is still focused on increasing its military and diplomatic footprint in Asia despite the war in Ukraine and the escalating situation in the Middle East. Victoria Nuland, a notorious Russia hawk credited with orchestrating the 2014 coup in Ukraine, has been serving as the acting deputy secretary of state.While Campbell has been known to focus on China most of his career, he is also a Russia hawk. During his Senate hearing, he said he favored more military aid to Ukraine. In 2022, Campbell said he believed the US could sustain two theaters of war as it did during World War II. “It’s difficult. It’s expensive. But it is also essential, and I believe that we’re entering a period where that is what will be demanded of the United States and this generation of Americans,” he said.
US to Increase Military Aid to Guyana Amid Tensions With Venezuela - The US will increase military aid to Guyana amid tensions with neighboring Venezuela over the disputed Guayana Essequibo region, The Associated Pressreported on Monday.The AP report did not detail how much the US will provide but said the US will help Guyana acquire new helicopters, a fleet of military drones, and radar technology for the first time.In 2023, the US provided Guyana with about $2.7 million in total aid, including over $400,000 from the Pentagon’s International Military Education & Training program, which trains foreign militaries. Guyana is a small country with a population of only around 800,000. According to AP, the Caribbean nation’s military numbers less than 5,000 troops.News of the new military aid came after US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer met with officials in Guyana. The US has been stepping up military cooperation with Guyana after Venezuelans voted in a referendum late last year to make the Essequibo region a Venezuelan state.Venezuela and Guyana agreed in December not to use military force to resolve the dispute, but tensions remain high as Venezuela deployed 6,000 troops to its border with Guyana.The resource-rich border territory is under Guyana’s control, but Venezuela has always disputed an 1899 American-British tribunal ruling that Essequibo belonged to the British Empire, which controlled Guyana at the time. In 1966, the opposing sides signed the Geneva Agreement that said they would pursue a mutually satisfactory solution to the dispute.Tensions have risen over Essequibo in recent years as more oil discoveries have been made. The American energy giant ExxonMobil discovered massive oil reserves off the coast of Guyana in waters claimed by Venezuela and has been involved in a major offshore drilling project.
Senate Votes to Deliberate on $95 Billion Foreign Military Aid Bill - The Senate on Thursday voted to begin deliberations on a $95 billion foreign military aid bill that stripped out border spending that was in the original $118 billion piece of legislation, which the chamber voted down on Wednesday.The Senate voted 67-32 to take up the new bill, signaling that it will get the 60 votes that are needed when it comes up for a final vote. But it’s unclear when the next vote will happen as Republicans might try to add some amendments to the spending package.The debate will likely take days as Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is looking to slow the process as much as he can. “I’ll object to anything speeding up this rotten foreign spending bill’s passage,” Paul wrote on X.The bill includes about $60 billion for the proxy war in Ukraine, $14 billion to support the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, and $4.8 billion for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region.Senate Republicans rejected the initial $118 billion bill after months of negotiations, enraging Democrats. Seventeen Republicans voted with Democrats on Thursday to take up the foreign military aid bill, which would be enough to pass the bill through the chamber.It would also likely pass through the House if a vote happens, but House Republicans could prevent it from being brought to the floor until they get a border deal that they like. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was the first to reject the $118 billion bill after it was unveiled by the Senate, saying the House was left out of the negotiations.
Republican eyes amending national security bill to block Biden’s pause on natural gas export permits - Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (Wyo.), the third-ranking member of the Senate GOP leadership, will seek to amend legislation containing aid for Ukraine and Israel with a provision blocking the Biden administration’s pause on new permits for natural gas exports. “If it truly is open for amendments, there will be an amendment — and I will bring one on … stopping what the president has done with this,” Barrasso said, referring to the administration’s pause on approving new natural gas export terminals.Such an amendment is sure to be contentious, with many Democrats supportive of the White House’s energy policy.The Senate package, which includes aid for Israel, Ukraine and Indo-Pacific security, cleared a procedural vote Thursday after border security measures were stripped and after Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) pledged a “fair and open process” on amendments. But it still needs several more votes in the Senate before it can reach the House, where its path is also uncertain, as the Republican Party’s right flank has been skeptical of foreign military aid and especially additional aid for Ukraine. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) also said he was cosponsoring a bill “that would do the same thing — that would take [Energy Department] out of the equation and leave it just to [the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission].” Late last month, the Biden administration announced it would pause new approvals for facilities that would export natural gas abroad in order to better assess such exports’ climate, economic and national security impacts. The move would only affect new projects and not impact existing exports or projects that are already under construction. The pause was met with cheers from many environmental advocates but pushback from Republicans and some centrist Democrats.
Senate Unveils $118 Billion Bill With Money for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and New Yemen War - The Senate Appropriations Committee on Sunday unveiled a massive $118 billion spending bill that includes military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as spending for President Biden’s new war with Yemen’s Houthis.The bill is the result of months of negotiations between Senate Democrats and Republicans on border policies and includes $20 billion in border spending. But some Republicans are unhappy with the agreement and seek more stringent border policies.House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) rejected the deal and said he would bring a stand-alone bill for Israel to the House floor for a vote this week. The House bill would provide $17.6 billion to support the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, while the Senate bill includes $14.1 billion for Israel.The Senate bill would authorize $60 billion to spend on the proxy war in Ukraine and $4.8 billion to “support key regional partners in the Indo-Pacific,” a portion of which will go toward replenishing arms sent to Taiwan.The US has always sold weapons to Taiwan since severing diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 but never financed the purchases or provided the weapons free of charge through military aid until last year. The bill also provides $2.44 billion to US Central Command and to “address combat expenditures related to the conflict in the Red Sea,” where US naval forces have been bombing Yemen and downing Houthi drones and missiles. Since January 12, the US has bombed Yemen at least 16 times, and the situation in the region continues to escalate as the Houthis are not backing down.
Senate GOP will block border deal, leaving Ukraine in limbo - Senate Republicans, under heavy pressure from former President Trump, will block a procedural motion to begin debate on a bipartisan border security deal this week, leaving funding for the war in Ukraine in limbo for the foreseeable future. A failure to advance the border security deal this week would signal the legislation is unlikely to pass the Senate without major changes. And any revisions to asylum and border security reforms negotiated with the White House and Senate Democrats could scuttle the whole deal. Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), whose staff has briefed Republican senators and their offices on the details of the sweeping border security package, said Tuesday that a motion to end debate on proceeding to the bill won’t get much, if any, Republican support. Asked Tuesday morning if any Senate Republicans will vote to proceed to the bill, Thune said it’s “unlikely” because members of his conference want more time to study the complicated package. “I think it’s unlikely because I just think our members are still — they want more time to evaluate it,” he said when asked about the prospect of any GOP senators voting to proceed. He said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) decision to schedule a vote Wednesday to allow the bill to proceed is “rushing it.” Even Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead Republican negotiator who has worked on the border security package over the past four months, said Monday evening he doesn’t know whether he will vote to proceed to the bill Wednesday. Schumer filed a cloture motion Monday setting up a midweek vote on ending dilatory debate on the motion to proceed to the bill. But the Democratic leader acknowledged Tuesday the bill won’t move forward this week, calling the Senate outlook “gloomy.” “After months of good faith negotiations, after months of giving Republicans many of the things they asked for, [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell and the Republican conference are ready to kill the national security supplemental package, even with the border provisions they so fervently demanded,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. Schumer said he would be willing to delay the first procedural vote on the package until Thursday but expressed doubt that would make any difference in getting enough votes to begin debate and amend it. “We’ll even offer to delay that vote until some time Thursday to give even more time for senators to make up their minds. But I suspect they won’t accept even that offer because they really don’t want more time. They’re just using it as an excuse,” he said. Some Republicans who plan to vote against advancing the bill say that doesn’t mean they necessarily oppose the substance of the legislation. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a leading Republican voice on immigration and national security issues, said Monday he looked “forward to the amendment process to try to improve the bill.” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), an important Republican swing vote, has proposed delaying votes on the border security and foreign aid package beyond this week so that senators would have more time to debate and vote on amendments. He said he would vote “no” on moving to the bill Wednesday. “I think the amendment process is very important. Me personally, I like what’s in it for defense. And I think a number of items for the border would definitely improve the border situation. The question is whether we can get enough concessions to actually close the border. We really want to do that,” he said. “You’re not going to get it done in three days …. Personally, I would vote no on cloture right now but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t continue to work on the bill itself.” The Senate is scheduled to take a two-week recess beginning on Saturday, which means that if Republicans block the border security and Ukraine funding package this week, they won’t have a chance to return to the bill until the week of Feb. 26.
GOP’s border bill outrage underscores a political shift - A proposed deal on border security, announced after long and painstaking negotiations in the Senate, has stumbled out of the gate. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has declared the push “dead on arrival.” In the Senate — which is typically more open to bipartisan moderation than the House — at least 19 GOP senators have declared they will vote against the bill. Even if the proposal were able to draw the 60 votes it needs to pass in the Senate — a scenario that relies on overwhelming support from Democrats— it is enormously difficult to see it passing the House. As of Monday evening, not a single Republican House member had publicly backed the proposal. If the effort fails, it will be a setback both to Sen. James Lankford (Okla.), who was the main GOP negotiator, and to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Its downfall, however, would be another victory for former President Trump. Such an outcome would show that his hawkish positions on immigration can still carry the day and that his broader grip on the GOP remains strong. “Only a fool, or a Radical Left Democrat, would vote for this horrendous Border Bill,” Trump wrote on social media on Monday morning. Later Monday, Trump told conservative media personality Dan Bongino that the bill could be “a very bad bill for [Lankford’s] career, especially in Oklahoma.” Republican supporters of the proposal make two related arguments. First, they contend that it has real teeth to come to grips with the historically high levels of unauthorized migration currently taking place. Second, they say that the politics of the moment open an unusual window of opportunity. The argument runs that Democrats are feeling the heat on immigration because it is such a clear political vulnerability in an election year. With a Democratic majority in the Senate — and a Democrat seeking reelection to the White House — the party has a clear political motivation to strike a deal. McConnell is among those who argue that Democrats would not have any such motivation if a Republican president were elected and the GOP retook the Senate. In that scenario, Democrats would simply oppose whatever ideas the GOP put forth. Lankford, for his part, called the proposal “a once-in-a-generation opportunity to stop the chaos & protect our nation” in a social media post. The Oklahoma senator cited provisions that would raise the bar for migrants to claim asylum in the United States, expand expedited removal of unauthorized migrants, and — basically — close down processing and turn people away if encounters at the border reached 5,000 per day. The final element, however, has drawn instant fire from the right, where critics paint it as acquiescing to the arrival of up to 5,000 migrants per day. Meanwhile, critics on the left are outraged by what they see as a move back toward Trump-era policies they regard as inhumane. They also clearly see such a shift on Biden’s part as driven by political expediency.
Heritage Action urges ‘no’ vote on border security, foreign aid package -- Heritage Action, the advocacy arm of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, is urging lawmakers to oppose the national security supplemental package, which includes the bipartisan border agreement and foreign aid to Ukraine and Israel, among other foreign policy priorities.The procedural vote on the legislation, which the Senate is expected to take up Wednesday, will be marked as a “key vote” for lawmakers on the group’s legislative scorecard, further pressuring Senate Republicans to fall in line.“The Biden administration’s ‘emergency’ supplemental funding request for billions in deficit-financed spending is a disingenuous effort to conflate and leverage popular support for Israel and false promises of border security for continued spending on the conflict in Ukraine and an open southern border,” the group wrote in a key-vote notice.Heritage Action argued most of the issues tackled in the national security supplemental were known months ago and therefore should have been incorporated into the administration’s standard appropriations request to Congress.“With the exception of replenishing defense capabilities for our ally Israel following the deadly terrorist attack by Hamas — a genuinely time-sensitive and unforeseen crisis — all other priorities in this supplemental were fully known at the start of the current appropriations cycle,” the statement read.“Rather than budgeting for these stated ‘priorities’ by eliminating less important federal programs, this supplemental attempts to use the legitimate ‘emergency’ designation for the war in Israel to dodge responsible budgeting for the Biden-designed crisis at the southern border and sending billions more of unaccountable taxpayer dollars into Ukraine,” it continued.Since the bill text was unveiled on Sunday — after months of negotiations — support among Republicans has quickly dwindled. It marks a sharp reversal of the GOP position just a few months ago, when Republicans refused to take up any supplemental aid package that did not also address the spike in migration at the southern border.The border agreement includes provisions to raise standards for asylum screening and to process claims faster, and it ends the practice known as “catch and release.” The bill would also provide new authority to the federal government to close the border to most migrants when crossings reach a set threshold, and it seeks to make it easier for migrants to get work authorization and eliminate the immigration court backlog.
5 things to know about the Senate border deal --The long-awaited bipartisan Senate border policy and national security deal was finally unveiled Sunday, but the bill’s text did little to move the political needle in its favor. The legislation’s contents did provide some surprises, however, after four months of speculation during closed-door negotiations.Biden pledged to “shut down” the border if given the authority to do so late last month, as talks were drawing to a close and pressure was growing on negotiators to release a working product.While the phrase means different things to different people, it was clear from the context of his remarks that Biden meant it as the authority to stop processing asylum applications.The Senate proposal would give him just that: It would create a border emergency authority that allows the secretary of Homeland Security “to summarily remove from and prohibit, in whole or in part, entry into the United States” foreign nationals who enter between ports of entry.That authority would be optional if the cumulative seven-day average of Border Patrol encounters is between 4,000 and 5,000 a day and mandatory if the average exceeds 5,000. The mandatory authority would also kick in after any single day with more than 8,500 encounters.During that time, U.S. border officials would summarily expel most migrants encountered between ports of entry, with exceptions for minors and U.S. obligations under the Convention Against Torture.Border officials would also be obligated to process at least 1,400 asylum requests at ports of entry during an emergency.One of the measure’s big surprises is that it addresses a number of glaring holes in immigration law. At the top of the list are “documented Dreamers,” people who have grown up in the United States, brought legally by parents on work visas. Under current law, documented Dreamers age out of their parents’ visa umbrella when they turn 21 and often become deportable even if they have applied for permanent residence because of processing backlogs. The bipartisan bill would extend the parents’ visa deportation protections for documented Dreamers who have been dependents of a visa holder for at least eight years. It also expands work permits for spouses and children of work visa holders and a number of permanent residency applicants who are immediate relatives of a U.S. citizen. Those measures could be life-changing for the affected immigrants, many of whom are Indian nationals stuck in a loop where their work visa protections expire, but no permanent residency slots are available. If Indian nationals are the immigrant group most benefited by the bill, Mexicans get the short end of the stick. About half of the 10 million undocumented immigrants in the United States are Mexican, and about 62 percent have lived in the United States for more than a decade, according to the Migration Policy Institute. That population has been at the center of the immigration reform conversation for decades. The last true comprehensive immigration reform bill in 1986 is best known for its amnesty provisions that prompted about 3,000,000 people to apply for permanent residency. But the Senate deal was never meant to be comprehensive immigration reform — the biggest gripe from the left was fear that it would harden immigration enforcement without providing any relief.
Seeking war funding, Biden embraces far-right anti-immigrant polices - Speaking to the press Tuesday afternoon, in the midst of the collapse of his proposed legislation to provide $118 billion in supplemental war funding and carry out a major crackdown on migrants crossing the US-Mexico border, President Joe Biden declared that he would hold Republican front-runner Donald Trump to blame “every day between now and November” for the failure. Biden was making it clear that he will place the US-NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine at the center of the Democratic Party campaign in the 2024 elections, as well as moving sharply to the right on the treatment of migrants, seeking to match the fascist Trump in pledging to militarize the southern US border against them. “I’m calling on Congress to pass this bill and get it to my desk immediately,” Biden said. “But if the bill fails, I want to be absolutely clear about something: The American people are going to know why it failed… Every day between now and November, the American people are going to know that the only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends.” It was only a few weeks ago that Biden was claiming that he would fight the election on the basis of Trump representing a threat to American democracy, because of his role in the January 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill, and other actions threatening democratic rights. Trump was a would-be dictator, he declared. But now Biden has abruptly changed course, presenting himself as an intransigent defender of the border—previously Trump’s signature issue, as Trump denounced migrants as rapists and murderers, vilifying them in Hitlerian terms as “vermin” who were “poisoning the blood” of the American people. Biden appealed to the Republicans to “move past this toxic politics,” referring to Trump’s intervention to torpedo the bipartisan deal on war spending. “We can’t continue to let petty partisan politics get in the way of our responsibility. We’re a great nation that’s not acting like a great nation.” But while Biden pleads for bipartisanship, his “Republican colleagues” have just voted to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, and, stymied by a tie vote, they plan to take up the matter again in the coming week. Next on the agenda of House Republicans is the impeachment of Biden himself, over the corrupt business practices of his son Hunter.
'A Death Sentence for Many': Rights Groups Implore Congress to Reject Border Deal - Immigrant rights groups are urging Congress to reject bipartisan Senate legislation released Sunday that would severely weaken asylum protections, expand migrant detention capacity, and give the president the authority to effectively shut down U.S.-Mexico border crossings under certain conditions—power that President Joe Biden vowed to use immediately if the bill reaches his desk. Anthony Romero, the ACLU's executive director, said lawmakers must ensure it never does, warning that the bill's enactment "would eviscerate longstanding asylum protections" and institute "variations of Stephen Miller's playbook"—a reference to the xenophobic White House adviser to former president Donald Trump."Deportation without due process was the Trump administration's disastrous experiment which should never be repeated, let alone used as a model for permanent border policy," said Romero. "This deal would force the government to summarily expel people from the border without due process, restricting legal pathways for the people who need them most.""Eliminating longstanding, core due process protections like court review of asylum cases and doubling down on harmful deterrence and detention policies are not going to get cities and states the support they need, nor are they a substitute for policies that would improve border management and address the immigration case backlog," he added. "This deal also fails to deliver on years of promises to enact reforms providing pathways to citizenship for Dreamers and other longtime residents."As The Washington Postnoted, the past several months of border-related talks "have been unusual, given that past efforts at bipartisan immigration reform included discussions of providing pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already living in the country demanded by Democrats, in addition to tightening border restrictions."A pathway to citizenship was never on the table during negotiations over the new package. Instead, as The Intercept's Ryan Grim pointed out, Senate Democrats granted some of the GOP's anti-immigrant demands in exchange for military aid for Ukraine.The 370-page bill includes more than $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine and around $14 billion for Israel.Immigration policy analyst Adam Isacson observed in a brief analysis of the legislation that it includes "a lot of the controversial limits on access to asylum that had already been reported in media."The bill, he observed, would require asylum seekers placed in the "expedited removal" process to "meet a much higher standard of 'credible fear' in screening interviews with asylum officers," raising the possibility that many people would be sent back into life-threatening circumstances.Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the bill's lead GOP negotiator, called the measure's asylum changes "dramatic."The new bill would also "allow the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to impose a Title 42-like expulsion authority, 'summarily removing' asylum seekers from the United States (except for hard-to-prove Convention Against Torture appeals), when unauthorized migrant encounters reach a daily threshold," Isacson added.In addition to the new discretionary authority, the bill would require DHS to mostly shut down the asylum process if an average of 5,000 people or more reach the southern border per day over a seven-day period.
GOP delivers death blow to bipartisan border bill - The effort to pass the Senate’s bipartisan border bill collapsed Tuesday after Republicans backed away from the package, effectively punting on the issue until after November and infuriating Democrats in the process. Top Senate Republicans said they would block the chamber from beginning to consider the bill, with more than half the conference declaring their outright opposition. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) had planned to bring the $118 billion supplemental to the floor Wednesday. That seemed to mark the death of the proposal crafted by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) — less than 48 hours after they unveiled the package they spent months negotiating. “It looks to me, and most of our members, we have no real chance here to make a law,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said during his weekly press conference. The reaction of the GOP conference had come in swiftly after the text of the bill was released Sunday evening. Republicans derided the process used to write the bill and heaped criticism on provisions they claimed would allow 5,000 migrants into the country each day — a talking point Lankford and his fellow negotiators vehemently refuted but struggled to counter. That quick condemnation, in turn, angered Democrats who were unable to hide their disdain for how the previous two days unfolded. They argued Republicans had misled them after insisting on linking the border to aid for Ukraine back in October. That idea was eventually backed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who Sunday declared the Senate border bill “dead on arrival” in the House. “How can you trust any Republican right now? How would we know what to do next?” Murphy told reporters. “They told us what to do. We followed their instructions to the letter and then they pulled the rug out from under us in 24 hours. Who are we supposed to work with over there? They are a negotiating nightmare.” “Look what they did to James Lankford. It’s disgusting what they did to James. They put him out there and asked him on their behalf to negotiate a compromise and then they didn’t even give him a chance to argue the merits,” Murphy continued. “These are not serious people.” Murphy’s frustration was also on full display during a floor speech in which he declared that the Senate GOP is indistinguishable from their counterparts in the House, and the conference cares only about former President Trump. Trump had spent weeks urging Republicans in Congress to kill any action on the border until after the election. Lankford said Monday that the bill was a “work in progress,” but it quickly became clear Democrats weren’t ready to make further concessions, and Republicans signaled they are willing to wait to see if Trump wins back the White House. “Americans will turn to the upcoming election to end the border crisis,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the No. 3 member of leadership, said in opposition the border bill.
McConnell Says $118 Billion Military Aid and Border Bill Will 'Not Become Law' - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said Tuesday that the $118 billion military aid and border bill unveiled over the weekend will likely “not become law” due to GOP opposition.“We had a very robust discussion about whether or not this product could ever become law,” McConnell said after meeting with Republican senators. “And it’s been made pretty clear to us by the speaker that it will not become law.”A day earlier, The Associated Press reported McConnell recommended to GOP senators that they vote against the first procedural vote on the bill that’s expected to happen on Wednesday. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has said the bill is dead on arrival and is looking to push forward a stand-alone resolution to give Israel more military aid to support the slaughter in Gaza.The Republican opposition to the $118 billion bill is over the border policies. Senate negotiators spent months working on a border deal for the legislation, but Johnson said the House was left out.Democrats are blaming the Republican opposition on former President Donald Trump, who has expressed he’s against the legislation. “Leader McConnell and the Republican Conference did a 180-degree reversal,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). “They’re quaking at the knees in fear of Donald Trump.” The spending bill includes $60 billion for the proxy war in Ukraine, about $14 billion for Israel, $4.8 for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region, and $2.44 billion for US Central Command and President Biden’s new war against the Houthis in Yemen. It also includes $20 billion for border spending.
Senate Votes Down $118 Billion Military Aid and Border Bill - The Senate on Wednesday voted down the $118 billion military and border bill as Republican leadership came out against the legislation before the vote.The bill needed 60 votes to pass and failed in a vote of 49-50. Only four Republicans voted in favor of the legislation, and only five Democrats voted against it.Senate Democrats are furious with Republicans since the legislation took months to negotiate. Republicans now say the bill would not do enough to crack down on the border and are looking for more concessions on migrant policy.House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has said the bill would be dead on arrival once it reached his chamber. Democrats are blaming former President Trump for the Republican opposition since he came out strongly against the border deal.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is looking to push through a $95 billion bill that strips out the border provisions and just includes the military aid. The bill includes about $60 billion for the Ukraine proxy war, $14 billion for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza, and $4.8 billion for Taiwan and other spending in the Asia Pacific. A vote is scheduled for Thursday, but it’s unclear if Schumer will get enough Republicans to support the bill. A stand-alone Israel military aid bill failed in the House on Tuesday as it was under threat of a White House veto since President Biden wants the full $118 billion legislation to go through.
Biden administration demands another $60 billion to fund the Ukrainian bloodbath -- In the wake of the collapse of the $118 billion bill to finance war and the assault on immigrants, the Biden administration is redoubling its efforts to ensure financing of its main priority: the US-NATO proxy war against Russia over Ukraine. On Thursday, legislation that would fund just the war passed a procedural hurdle in the Senate, with 17 Republicans joining Democrats to move it forward. While the bill pledges some $14 billion to back Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians and around $10 billion to prepare Taiwan for war with China, the majority of the spending, $60.1 billion, is earmarked to continue the mass slaughter in Ukraine against Russia. As the US-NATO war on Russia approaches its second anniversary, Washington is determined to prolong the conflict, which has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. In pursuit of their goal of reducing Russia to the status of a semi-colony, the US and its European imperialist allies are prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian. Following the spectacular failure of its “summer offensive” in 2023, Ukraine’s Zelensky regime confronts a military and social calamity. The army is running out of manpower, with decimated units struggling to hold defensive lines against Russian attacks. Zelensky is preparing a plan to conscript a further 500,000 Ukrainians to be used as the imperialists’ cannon fodder. Bitter factional in-fighting within the Ukrainian oligarchy led this week to Zelensky removing Valery Zaluzhny as the army’s commander. The ruthlessness with which Washington is escalating the conflict is bound up with the imperialist character of the war. American imperialism systematically provoked the oligarchic nationalist Putin regime into invading Ukraine in February 2022 because it was seeking a pretext to launch a long-planned war on Russia. After financing and helping organize a fascist-spearheaded coup in 2014 to install a pro-Western regime in Kiev, the US, Canada and the European powers poured huge quantities of arms into Ukraine and vastly expanded NATO’s presence throughout Eastern Europe. The centrality of the war in relation to imperialist geostrategy is underscored by the extent of the financial support provided to Kiev by the major powers. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Ukraine received a total of $247 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid commitments between 24 January, 2022 and 31 October, 2023. The country’s annual GDP for the last pre-war year, 2021, amounted to just $200 billion. In other words, the entire state and corrupt oligarchy is funded by the imperialist powers, which supply the weapons and the strategic and logistical planning for the war. The military spending bill is seen as essential to demonstrate to Washington’s rivals its ability to continue waging war on all fronts. As retired Gen. H.R. McMaster, national security advisor under Trump, put it when discussing the urgency of securing congressional backing for the $60 billion for Ukraine: The abandonment of Kyiv would be a gift to the Moscow-Tehran-Beijing-Pyongyang axis of aggressors. Allies and partners would lose trust in America as those aggressors are emboldened.
Senate advances Ukraine funding without border security reforms The Senate voted Thursday to advance a $95 billion emergency security spending bill with $60 billion to support the war in Ukraine — but without a bipartisan border security bill that ran into stiff opposition from Republicans. The move by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to swiftly bring the security spending package back to the floor without the controversial border security reforms gives new political momentum to U.S. aid for Ukraine. The Senate voted 67-32 to advance a legislative vehicle that Schumer says will be used to carry funding for Ukraine, Israel, Indo-Pacific security and humanitarian assistance for civilians around the world. Seventeen Republican senators voted to advance the legislation, including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Senate GOP Whip John Thune (S.D.). Other Republicans who voted yes were Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), Bill Cassidy (La.), Susan Collins (Maine), John Cornyn (Texas), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Chuck Grassley (Iowa), John Kennedy (La.), Jerry Moran (Kan.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitt Romney (Utah), Mike Rounds (S.D.), Dan Sullivan (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.), Roger Wicker (Miss.) and Todd Young (Ind.). Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt. ) voted against it. Senators a day earlier had voted to block the exact same measure when it was also supposed to include the bipartisan border security reforms. The second vote on advancing money for Ukraine and Israel was delayed for a day as a group of Republican senators tried to haggle for a promise from Schumer that they would be allowed to amend the package with their own ideas for securing the southern border. McConnell on Tuesday suggested splitting off money for Ukraine, Israel and other national security priorities from the bipartisan border security deal, after former President Trump opposed it and members of the GOP conference revolted against the border-related proposals. “There are other parts of this supplemental that are extremely important as well: Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan. We still in my view ought to tackle the rest of it because it’s important, not that the border isn’t important, but we can’t get an outcome. So that’s where I think we ought to head,” he said.
Speaker Johnson in increasingly tough spot on Ukraine - Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is in an increasingly tough spot on Ukraine, wedged between a Senate moving toward approving aid for Kyiv and House conservatives warning that any support for the U.S. ally could cost him his job. Johnson — who is coming off a difficult week that has raised new questions about his ability to lead the fractious GOP conference — will soon be confronted with some tough decisions on Ukraine, as the embattled country approaches the two-year mark in its war against Russia. On Thursday, the Senate cleared an initial procedural hurdle for a national security supplemental that includes aid for Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific allies. Several more votes remain before the chamber clears the funding. The successful vote came after conservatives in both chambers — at the urging of former President Trump — torpedoed the same package with a bipartisan border deal attached. Johnson previously called for splitting the supplemental aid into different bills and has demanded numerous conditions on approving aid for Ukraine. But unlike the foreign aid and border security package — which he said would have been “dead on arrival” in the House — the GOP Speaker did not completely rule out moving a Senate supplemental that includes Ukraine and Israel aid when asked Wednesday. “Look, we’ll see what the Senate does,” Johnson told reporters. “We’re allowing the process to play out, and we’ll handle it as it is sent over. I have made very clear that you have to address these issues on their own merits.” And a day earlier, he said that the idea of approving aid to Ukraine has “not been abandoned.” Moving any legislation with Ukraine aid, whether packaged with other funding or as a stand-alone bill, however, would present a series of landmines for the new Speaker. Johnson would likely have to depend on Democratic votes to advance funding for Ukraine, a reality that would further anger conservatives. A growing contingent of the GOP conference has become skeptical of sending more aid to Kyiv. The shift has been powered in part by Trump’s opposition, which Republican leaders cannot ignore as he tightens his grip on the party’s presidential nomination.
Cruz says it’s time for McConnell to step down as GOP leader - Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), pointing to what he called the mismanagement of a border security and Ukraine funding package, said Tuesday it’s time for Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to step down as the Senate GOP leader. Cruz was one of 10 Republican senators who voted against McConnell’s reelection as Senate minority leader after the 2022 election and he is a longtime critic of McConnell’s leadership. While Cruz’s desire to replace McConnell as leader isn’t new, he has stepped up his criticism of the veteran Kentucky lawmaker in anticipation that the border security deal negotiated by Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), whom McConnell tapped for the task, would fall flat with GOP senators. Asked at a press conference whether it’s time for McConnell “to go,” Cruz replied: “I think it is.” “Everyone here also supported to the leadership challenge to Mitch McConnell in November [2022,]” he said at a press conference with Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), JD Vance (R-Ohio), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). “I think a Republican leader should actually lead this conference and should advance the priorities of Republicans,” he said. Asked about Cruz’s comments Tuesday afternoon, McConnell quipped that he wasn’t shocked to hear that his Texas colleague is criticizing him again. “I think we can all agree that Sen. Cruz is not a fan,” McConnell replied with deadpan humor.
Senate GOP campaign chief challenges McConnell over Ukraine, border strategy -- Senate GOP campaign chief Steve Daines (R-Mt.) challenged Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) several times behind closed doors this week over the political wisdom of moving forward with a Ukraine and Israel funding package without border security reforms, a path McConnell endorsed Tuesday. Daines, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, warned his colleagues that advancing a bill to provide military aid to Ukraine and Israel without provisions to secure the southern border would hurt Senate Republican candidates, according to senators who attended the meetings. Some of those candidates are emphasizing the need to secure the border and Daines expressed concern about undercutting them, senators noted. “The atmosphere was very tense,” one GOP lawmaker said of a Senate Republican meeting Friday morning. The meeting took place before lawmakers voted on a motion to advance funding for Ukraine without border reforms. “Steve Daines has spoken up at multiple meetings, implicitly criticizing McConnell today where he said, ‘I just want to tell you, the path we’re going down will have ramifications. It looks bad to really vote no on this border bill and then flip around and give money to Ukraine. It undercuts our candidates,’” said the lawmaker who attended the Friday morning meeting. A second Republican source familiar with Daines’s comment said he was making the point that prioritizing the issue of Ukraine over the border is going to be an issue for Senate Republican candidates. Daines was one of two members of the elected Senate Republican leadership to vote against a motion to advance a Ukraine and Israel funding package without border security reforms. Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso (Wyo.) also voted no. McConnell has made the argument to colleagues that the $95.3 billion emergency defense spending package is vital to U.S. national security interests and that abandoning Ukraine when it is running out of weapons and ammunition would be a huge mistake. Speaking before the votes on advancing funding for Ukraine, McConnell told his colleagues they faced the “weighty responsibilities” of needing to invest in “hard power” at a time when President Biden has been reluctant to use it. He also urged them “to commit to allies that fear being abandoned” and “to address the requirements of long-term competition” with enemies and rivals such as Russia, Iran and China. On Tuesday, McConnell recommended moving ahead with the national security spending package without border security reforms because he didn’t see any kind of border deal getting enough votes to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate and GOP-controlled House. “There are other parts of this supplemental that are extremely important as well: Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan. We still in my view ought to tackle the rest of it because it’s important, not that the border isn’t important but we can’t get an outcome,” he said.
Tempers flare after Graham accuses Sinema of ‘half-ass’ border effort - Tempers flared on the Senate floor Thursday when Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) asked Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to explain why he voted against advancing the border security deal she negotiated and Graham responded by panning it as a “half-ass” effort to secure the border. Sinema appeared frustrated about Graham’s vote to block the border deal from even coming up for debate on the Senate floor after Graham and his staff played what she called an “integral” role in crafting the bipartisan deal, along with Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). Sinema challenged Graham to justify his vote to block debate on the bill, which also included other foreign policy spending including aid for Ukraine and Israel. Graham said the deal Sinema negotiated “did a pretty good job in many ways” but added, “I didn’t think it was enough.” Sinema then asked why he blocked the bill from even coming to the floor, depriving his colleagues the chance to offer amendments to improve it. That’s when the fireworks started to fly. Graham said he didn’t think Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) would have given him a chance to offer amendments that had any chance of passing and then boiled the matter down as bluntly as he could. “Here is what I’m saying. This has been a half-ass effort to deal with border security,” he declared. That rebuke didn’t sit well with Sinema, who worked through the Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s Day breaks with her fellow negotiators to put together the 250-page border deal. She tried to ask Graham several follow-up questions, but her colleague from South Carolina refused to yield the floor, his voice rising with passion as he vented his complaints about how the bill was put together behind closed doors. “I didn’t see any willingness by anybody to allow an amendment process where we could deal with the border issue,” Graham said hotly. “That’s ass-backwards.” When Sinema finally got a chance to ask Graham another question, she reminded him of basic Senate floor procedure that only allows amendments to be considered after senators approve a motion to proceed to a bill. “So could you help me understand why you voted against the motion to proceed, before we’re able to offer any amendments?” she asked. But Graham scoffed at the notion that there would have been a real chance to change the border deal that Sinema, Lankford and Murphy negotiated with the White House. “I think the fix is in,” he said. “That’s why I voted no, because I didn’t see any willingness” to have a lengthy debate over amendments. \
McGovern slams Greene for going after Mayorkas, Omar: ‘The clowns are running the circus’ -Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) on Monday called Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) the “leader” of a “charade” over her efforts to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and censure Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.).“The clowns are running the circus around here,” McGovern, the ranking member of the House Rules Committee, said during a committee hearing Monday. “And we’re wasting hours of time this week on Marjorie Taylor Greene because what? She wants to impeach somebody? And don’t even get me started on her absurd censure resolution of Congresswoman Omar that she introduced because she doesn’t know how to use Google Translate.”McGovern was speaking during a committee hearing on H.R. Res 863, a resolution introduced by Greene last year to impeach Mayorkas “for high crimes and misdemeanors,” including an alleged failure to secure the border and detain all illegal migrants.She called off the vote for this resolution in November after she said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Homeland Security Committee Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) assured her the House would push forward with proceedings against Mayorkas. The House Homeland Security Committee advanced the resolution last week.McGovern on Monday contended House lawmakers could be debating and voting on a border security package, but they cannot because Greene “is in charge, and Speaker Johnson is terrified of her and her MAGA extremist friends.”Greene’s “legislative agenda is revenge, retaliation and impeachment. She’s introduced — get this — 20 pieces of legislation this Congress … 20. And 10 of them are to impeach or censure people she doesn’t like,” McGovern said.“And to see this committee, this institution be so totally perverted by this garbage makes me sad,” he added later.Greene last week said she “absolutely” deserves credit for House Republicans pushing forward with impeachment proceedings against Mayorkas after she moved to force votes on his impeachment last year.The Georgia Republican is separately spearheading an attempt to censure Omar following a disputed translation of comments the Minnesota representative made about Somalia and Somalians. Greene accused Omar of being a “foreign agent” and called her censure legislation to the floor last week as a privileged resolution. This procedural gambit forces leadership to hold a vote within two legislative days.This censure attempt comes just months after she introduced a resolution to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) over her comments condemning Israel for its response to Hamas and the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. A separate censure resolution of Tlaib was sponsored by Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) around the same time and eventually approved by the House.
In stunner, House GOP bid to impeach Mayorkas fails - A House GOP effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas failed in embarrassing fashion Tuesday as three Republicans joined Democrats in voting against what would have been the second-ever impeachment of a Cabinet official. The 214-216 vote is a stunning loss for a GOP that has faced continual pressure from its right flank to impeach a Biden official, even as the party has waffled over which one to focus on. The failure came about because of the surprise appearance in the chamber of Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), who showed up unexpectedly to vote against the bill. Republicans entered the vote with two expected GOP “no” votes from Reps. Ken Buck (Colo.) and Tom McClintock (Calif.), but then a third House GOP lawmaker, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), also voted against impeachment. A fourth Republican, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), the vice chair of the GOP conference, then flipped his vote to “no” seconds before the vote closed, a procedural move that allows the conference to bring the legislation back to the floor at a later date. Republicans are dealing with a razer-thin majority smaller on Tuesday because of the absence of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), who is having treatment for blood cancer. There was talk after the vote, however, that Scalise could return to the House on Wednesday. Buck in an appearance on CNN said he expected the House to consider the Mayorkas impeachment against on Wednesday and for it to pass, with Scalise providing the necessary cushion. That would soften the blow of the Tuesday night embarrassment for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team, who after the Mayorkas vote also saw another bill providing aid to Israel fall. That bill needed a two-thirds majority to pass because it was brought to the floor under suspension of House rules. Republicans had accused Mayorkas of “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law,” claiming he violated immigration laws by failing to detain a sufficient number of migrants. No administration has ever detained all illegal migrants, and immigration law experts who have weighed the claim determined Mayorkas did not violate any laws.
These 8 Republicans voted with Democrats to punt Mayorkas impeachment attempt --Eight House Republicans broke from their party Monday to vote against a resolution that was aimed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas from his position. In a 209-201 vote, the House chamber decided to shelve the resolution, first introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), and supported a motion to refer it to the Homeland Security Committee. As a result, the proposed resolution was blocked from coming to the House floor for a vote, shielding lawmakers from having to weigh in on the matter directly.Greene’s proposed resolution, which she moved to force a vote on last week, accuses Mayorkas of “willful admittance of border crossers” and says he has a duty to protect the U.S. from an “invasion.” The Georgia lawmaker also accuses him of violating the Secure Fence Act, a 2006 law that demands perfection at the border by declaring the border operationally secure only if no people or contraband improperly enter the country. Here are the eight House Republicans who voted against Greene’s resolution: Rep. Patrick McHenry (N.C.) Rep. Tom McClintock (Calif.) Rep. John Duarte (Calif.) Rep. Virginia Foxx (N.C.) Rep. Darrell Issa (Calif.) Rep. Cliff Bentz (Ore.) Rep. Ken Buck (Colo.) and Rep. Mike Turner (Ohio.). Duarte told Axios before the vote that he would oppose an impeachment that hasn’t gone through regular order. He also noted an impeachment debate and vote taking up too much time as the government is working to avert a potential shutdown at the end of the week. “We don’t have time to waste,” Duarte told the media outlet. In a statement, McClintock said that while Mayorkas hasn’t done an efficient job as Homeland Security secretary, impeachment inquiries shouldn’t be used to punish someone over any political disagreement, noting that it is “antithetical to the fundamental architecture of the Constitution.”“The House made a mockery of impeachment twice during the last session of Congress. We must not allow the left to become our teachers,” McClintock said. “If these clear constitutional principles are not restored, now, that power will be just one election from being turned against the constitutionalists on the Supreme Court, or upon any future Republican administration.”
LNG Export Pause Facing Scrutiny as GOP Opposition Mounts - As congressional pushback against the Biden administration’s pause of LNG export permits heats up, EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice said U.S. producers and exporters already have work ahead to abate the potential damage to project development. Rice joined a panel of witnesses Tuesday during a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing. It was one of the first public debates between lawmakers and policy experts on the Department of Energy (DOE) decision to review the authorization process for liquefied natural gas exports since the move was announced in late January. For more than three hours, House members dissected the authorization process and whether DOE’s export curtailment was warranted or a potential attack on the ability to develop domestic LNG projects.
IRS To Boost Enforcement Workforce By 40% By Year-End 2024 -- The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) intends to raise its enforcement personnel by 40 percent by the end of this fiscal year, with revenue agents seeing the largest workforce increase. For fiscal year 2024, the IRS plans to boost enforcement staff by a net 5,462 employees, according to a Jan. 29 report by IRS watchdog Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA). This would take the total number of enforcement personnel at the tax agency to 18,960 by the end of fiscal 2024, which is 40 percent higher than the staffing at the beginning of October 2023. Out of the 5,462 net additions, 4,704 will be revenue agents who are tasked with conducting “face-to-face audits of more complex returns.” The tax agency intends to add a net 493 special agents for the year, who are armed officials investigating “potential criminal activities.” Staffing of revenue officers will rise by 265 employees. Revenue officers are tasked with collecting delinquent taxes and securing delinquent returns. By fiscal 2024-end, revenue agents will comprise close to 70 percent of the enforcement personnel. Armed special agents will make up 13.5 percent and revenue officers will account for 16.4 percent. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provided the IRS with $79.4 billion in supplemental funding that is available for the agency until September 2031. By the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2023, the agency had used $3.5 billion of the funds. The IRS spent $1.4 billion out of the $3.5 billion IRA funds on its employees, “nearly doubling expenditures in this object class category in the fourth quarter.” Most of the labor costs were accounted for by taxpayer services, which the TIGTA said “helped support the IRS’s efforts to hire additional customer service representatives to answer taxpayer telephone calls, as well as employees to staff Taxpayer Assistance Centers for the 2023 filing season.” The IRS employed 89,767 people by the end of fiscal 2023. In addition to hiring staff to improve taxpayer services, the tax agency “focused on expanding enforcement on taxpayers with complex tax filings and high-dollar noncompliance to address the tax gap.” “Tax gap” refers to the difference between taxes owed and paid to the government. The IRS claims the tax gap rose to $688 billion in 2021 alone, which is $192 billion more than estimates from 2014–16 and $138 billion more than 2017-19.
Sanders grills drug company CEOs over high prices in hearing -Drug company CEOs were in the hot seat Thursday, as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) sought to harness the anger over high drug prices into action. During a showy Senate Health Committee hearing, Sanders pressed the CEOs of Merck, Johnson & Johnson and Bristol Myers Squibb about why their medicines cost so much more in the U.S. compared to other countries. “The overwhelming beneficiary of high drug prices in America is the pharmaceutical industry,” Sanders said Thursday. “The United States government does not regulate drug companies. With a few exceptions, the drug companies regulate the United States government.” He focused on several widely used drugs, including blood thinner Eliquis from Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck’s cancer drug Keytruda, and Johnson & Johnson’s arthritis drug Stelara. The Vermont senator has long criticized pharmaceutical companies for their pricing tactics. In a similar hearing last year, he extracted a promise of no insulin price hikes from the CEO of Eli Lilly and Co. But he received no such guarantees from any of the executives testifying Thursday, and the panel’s top Republican said Sanders was wasting people’s time with a show trial. “I wish this were a genuine exercise. I am willing to do the work, my colleagues are too,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said. “This committee has devolved into CEO whack-a-mole with little to show … if this is just to get social media clips of members taking it to a quote unquote greedy CEO, then I suppose that is what some people want to accomplish.” Responding to questions from Sanders and other Democrats, the CEOs largely stuck to familiar talking points and blamed the U.S. health system for the substantial differences in list prices. Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at the research group KFF, said nobody should have realistically expected the CEOs to promise anything. “I would not expect the CEO of a drug company to stand before Congress and just all of a sudden give up millions of dollars in revenues and profits by committing to lowering prices,” Levitt said.
Biden appears to mix up Macron with French president Mitterrand, who died in 1996 --President Biden on Sunday appeared to mix up French President Emmanuel Macron with Francois Mitterrand, the former president of France who died in 1996. The apparent mix-up took place during a Sunday campaign event in Las Vegas, in which Biden recounted a Group of 7 (G7) meeting he attended after being elected in 2020.Biden said one of the first things he said during the meeting was “America is back,” which he said prompted a response from “Mitterrand” from Germany, before correcting it to “from France.” “And Mitterand from Germany — I mean, from France — looked at me and said…’You know, what… why… how long you back for?” Biden said. “And I looked at him and…the Chancellor of Germany said, ‘What would you say, Mr. President, if you picked up the paper tomorrow in the London Times, and London Times said, ‘A thousand people break through the House of Commons, break down the doors, two Bobbies are killed in order to stop the election of the Prime Minister.’ What would you say?'”The White House later posted the remarks, which had the name Mitterand crossed out and replaced with Macron.Biden’s remarks continued with criticism of former President Trump and his recent “poisoning the blood” comments he used to describe the effects of immigrants coming into the United States.Biden has faced continued scrutiny for his age and ability to carry out a second term since the start of his presidency in 2021. Several of his political opponents and some voters have used Biden’s apparent mix-ups and gaffes to further fuel their argument as to why he is too old or unfit to be president.At 81, Biden is the oldest sitting U.S. president. If reelected this November, he would be 87 at the end of his second term.Biden’s political rival, Trump, 77, faced similar criticism last month after he appeared to mix-uphis main GOP challenger Nikki Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) while discussing the Jan. 6, Capitol riots.
Trump, Haley slam decision in Biden classified documents case as unfair - Donald Trump and his GOP presidential rival Nikki Haley each slammed a Justice Department special counsel decision Thursday not to charge President Joe Biden for mishandling classified documents, calling it unfair. “This has now proven to be a two-tiered system of justice and unconstitutional selective prosecution! The Biden Documents Case is 100 times different and more severe than mine,” Trump, who faces criminal prosecution for deliberately retaining classified material, said in a statement.“I did nothing wrong, and I cooperated far more. What Biden did is outrageously criminal.”While describing the decision as a “glaring” double standard, Haley also used the decision to take a jab at both Biden and her rival Trump: “Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump were reckless with classified documents,” she wrote on social media platform X. “If Biden’s defense is old age and forgetfulness, Trump can easily make the same claim. Trump should quickly hire Biden’s lawyers.”The special counsel report released by the Justice Department withheld condemnation of Biden on legal grounds, but it also presented a harsh portrait of his conduct and mental faculties. It stated Biden would be perceived in any court proceedings as a “sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory.”
Biden angrily defends memory, age in contentious press conference - President Biden on Thursday fiercely defended his cognitive abilities and memory in the wake of a special counsel report that offered a scathing assessment of the president’s recollection of key elements of his life and political career. Biden squarely pushed back on the report’s most eyebrow-raising details, in which special counsel Robert Hur calls Biden “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Hur used that assessment to determine that it would be unlikely for a jury to convict Biden for his handling of classified documents. “I’m well-meaning and I’m an elderly man and I know what the hell I’m doing. I’ve been president, I put this country back on its feet. I don’t need his recommendation,” Biden told reporters in last minute remarks at the White House. “My memory’s fine. My memory’s– take a look at what I’ve done since I became president… how did that happen? I guess I just forgot what was going on,” he said, striking a sarcastic tone. He also firmly pushed back on reporter’s questions over concerns voters have about his age, contending that was a belief held by the media during a rare, and at times contentious press conference from the Diplomatic Reception Room. He also appeared to get emotional in bashing a part of Hur’s report that claimed he forgot when his son, Beau Biden, had died. “There’s even reference that I don’t remember when my son died. How in the hell dare he raise that. Frankly, when I was asked the question, I thought to myself it wasn’t any of their damn business,” he said. But, as if to underscore the concerns raised by the special counsel, Biden in response to a final question regarding the Israel-Hamas war, question mistakenly referred to the “president of Mexico, Sisi,” when referring to the president of Egypt. Hur released a 388-page report earlier Thursday that concluded Biden “willfully” retained classified documents, but declined to bring any charges. The report also offered a stark assessment of the 81-year-old’s memory and abilities to recall information. Hur wrote that Biden’s memory “was significantly limited, both during his recorded interviews with the ghostwriter in 2017, and in his interview with our office in 2023.” The special counsel wrote that Biden “did not remember when he was vice president,” forgetting at one point when his term ended, and in another instance forgetting when his term began. Hur reported Biden did not remember when his son Beau had died within a matter of several years, and that his memory “appeared hazy” when speaking about a debate over Afghanistan that was critical to his memoirs. Republican leadership suggested that Biden is “unfit” for office after the report’s findings. The descriptions of Biden’s memory in the report will likely serve as campaign fodder for Republicans who already consistently bash the president over his age and mental capacity. Biden, 81, would be 86 years old at the end of a second term and before he announced his reelection campaign in April, questions swirled over if he should step aside. Since then, some Democrats, notably former President Obama’s top adviser David Axelrod, have raised questions over if he should be running again.
Biden mistakenly calls Egyptian leader ‘president of Mexico’ President Biden on Thursday confused the leaders of Mexico and Egypt during a press conference in which he forcefully rebutted a special counsel report that offered a harsh assessment of his memory and recall abilities. Biden delivered remarks from the White House in which he sharply pushed back against conclusions from special counsel Robert Hur that the president presented during an interview with investigators as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” “My memory’s fine. Take a look at what I’ve done since I became president… how did that happen? I guess I just forgot what was going on,” Biden said, striking a sarcastic tone. But when he fielded a question about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, Biden mistakenly referred to Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as the “president of Mexico.” “I think as you know initially, the president of Mexico, El-Sisi, did not want to open up the gate to humanitarian material to get in. I talked to him. I convinced him to open the gate,” Biden said. A clip of the comment quickly traveled around social media, where Republicans seized on it as the latest evidence that Biden had lost a step. “weak and sad,” Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Nothing to see here. Nothing at all,” Trump adviser Jason Miller wrote. Biden allies were quick to dismiss the fixation on the slip-up, arguing critics and reporters were missing the broader point that he had delivered impassioned and cogent remarks and instead chose to hone in on one sentence.
Age isn’t just a number. It’s a profound and growing problem for Biden. - Special counsel Robert Hur jolted the presidential campaign Thursday with a withering assessment of Joe Biden’s mental acuity, drawing the president’s biggest political liability firmly into the public conversation. While Biden’s age is a major concern for voters in polling, top Democrats have danced around the issue, keeping their concerns mostly private. But Hur’s description of Biden, 81, in an official report as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” may force a new reckoning for the president. Investigators found insufficient evidence to charge Biden for mishandling classified documents during his time as vice president but wrote his memory “appeared to have significant limitations” and that “he did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died” in 2015. Biden could not remember when he was vice president or the details of a debate about sending additional troops to Afghanistan, they said. That scathing description came just as Biden’s aides were trying to explain away the president’s most recent verbal gaffes — in which he mixed up the heads of state and recalled recent conversations with world leaders who died long ago. During a pair of New York fundraisers on Wednesday night, Biden twice described conversations he said he had in 2021 with European leaders at the G7 meeting in the U.K., which took place just months after the U.S. Capitol insurrection. At both Manhattan events, Biden said that former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who died in 2017, had asked him about the Jan. 6 riot and his reaction if people stormed the British Parliament and killed officers “to stop the election of a prime minister.” And just days earlier, during a campaign event outside of Las Vegas, Biden mixed up François Mitterrand, the former French president who died in 1996, for French President Emmanuel Macron. Democrats have defended Biden but also questioned the age and fitness of Biden’s likely Republican rival, Donald Trump, himself facing an indictment over his handling of classified materials. Beyond his recent high-profile mix-up of Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, Trump, 77 has repeatedly said he is running against Barack Obama, and not Biden, and that he feared that the nation may soon enter World War II, a conflict that has been over for nearly 80 years.
Democratic panic deepens after dismal moment for Biden - Democrats are still reeling from a dismal day for President Biden on Thursday. The report from Special Counsel Robert Hur that characterized Biden as a “well meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” was followed by a fractious White House news conference at which the president — seeking to shore up concerns about his cognitive state — misidentified the president of Egypt as the president of Mexico. There is no escaping the intertwined issues of Biden’s age and mental acuity now. Polling has been showing for months those topics are among the top concerns of voters. Some Democrats are no longer bothering to minimize the gravity of the situation, with a presidential election — almost certainly against former President Trump — just nine months away. “Whatever language you use, I have not had a single person say, ‘Well, this really worked out well,’” James Carville told this column. “Obviously this has been a bad 48 hours here.” Carville, best known for his central role in former President Clinton’s 1992 election campaign, added that Democrats were now looking to interventions from the Supreme Court, or a criminal conviction for Trump, in the hope that such developments would shift the election in Biden’s favor. “We’re officially in Hail Mary mode here,” he said.
GOP lawmaker calls on Cabinet to ‘explore’ removing Biden under 25th Amendment - Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) called on members of the Biden administration to “explore” removing President Biden under the 25th Amendment after a special counsel cleared him of any wrongdoing but painted him as an elderly man with a failing memory.In a letter obtained by Fox News Digital, Tenney reportedly wrote to Attorney General Merrick Garland Thursday night to share her “grave concerns.”“After concluding that President Biden knowingly and willfully removed, mishandled, and disclosed classified documents repeatedly over a period of decades, Mr. Hur nevertheless recommended that charges not be brought against him,” her letter said. “Special Counsel’s reasoning was alarming.”Special Counsel Robert Hur released his findings Thursday in the case into Biden’s handling of classified materials. Hur’s 388-page report investigated how documents from Biden’s time as vice president ended up at his Wilmington, Del., home and an old office space. Hur determined that he “willfully” retained the documents but didn’t bring forth any charges, describing Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory.”Tenney argued that the Department of Justice “cannot ethically” bring charges against former President Trump and decline to bring them against Biden.She argued that Biden, who is 81, is lacking the ability to execute his responsibilities as president.“So it is incumbent upon you to explore proceedings to remove the President pursuant to the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution,” she wrote. “President Biden needs to be charged, or he needs to be removed.”The 25th Amendment, ratified after former President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, is a procedure for replacing the president in the event of death, removal, resignation or incapacitation.
Nikki Haley Just Lost A GOP Primary To 'None Of These Candidates' - Nikki Haley has failed to win the Nevada primary despite there being no other Republican candidates on the ticket.Haley came in second place to “None of These Candidates,” losing by around 22,000 votes. Overall, she received less than a third of the votes.The race was called at 9pm PST, with over 60 percent voting for no one. For some inexplicable reason, 2705 people voted for Mike Pence. Donald Trump joked that Haley would soon be claiming victory:
Appeals panel rules against Trump on presidential immunity - A three-judge panel upheld a lower court ruling that deemed former President Trump is not immune from criminal prosecution as a former executive, blocking his effort to toss his election interference federal case on those grounds.“For the purpose of this criminal case, former President Trump has become citizen Trump, with all of the defenses of any other criminal defendant,” the panel for the District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals wrote in its 57-page decision.“But any executive immunity that may have protected him while he served as President no longer protects him against this prosecution.”In a statement issued shortly after the ruling was issued, Trump’s team said he “respectfully disagrees” with the decision.The decision is a rejection of Trump’s argument that presidents enjoy sweeping immunity from criminal charges, even well after they’ve left office.“We cannot accept former President Trump’s claim that a President has unbounded authority to commit crimes that would neutralize the most fundamental check on executive power — the recognition and implementation of election results. Nor can we sanction his apparent contention that the Executive has carte blanche to violate the rights of individual citizens to vote and to have their votes count,” the judges wrote in the decision.“We cannot accept that the office of the Presidency places its former occupants above the law for all time thereafter. Careful evaluation of these concerns leads us to conclude that there is no functional justification for immunizing former Presidents from federal prosecution in general or for immunizing former President Trump from the specific charges in the Indictment.”The much-awaited decision comes as legal observers became panicked over the delay of a ruling from the Jan. 9 hearing, which led U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan — who originally rejected Trump’s immunity claims — to suspend a March 4 trial date until the issue was resolved.The decision reflects the skepticism expressed by the judges in that hearing, where they pressured Trump’s lawyers to weigh possible extremes that might be permitted under their framework, including that a former president could skirt prosecution after ordering the assassination of a political rival.Trump’s team had argued that presidents could only be prosecuted if they were first impeached and convicted by the Senate — a reversal from what Trump’s legal team argued when he was facing his second impeachment.The judges also rejected an argument that has been a running theme for him both in court and on the campaign trail: that he is being targeted for political purposes in a case that risks similar prosecutions of future executives.“As former President Trump acknowledges that this is the first time since the Founding that a former President has been federally indicted,” they wrote. “Weighing these factors, we conclude that the risk that former Presidents will be unduly harassed by meritless federal criminal prosecutions appears slight.”Still, Trump renewed that exact argument in responding to the decision.“If immunity is not granted to a President, every future President who leaves office will be immediately indicted by the opposing party. Without complete immunity, a President of the United States would not be able to properly function!” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement.They also rejected arguments that the threat of prosecution creates a chilling effect on presidents.“Past Presidents have understood themselves to be subject to impeachment and criminal liability, at least under certain circumstances, so the possibility of chilling executive action is already in effect,” the court wrote. They also note that Trump’s interpretation of immunity is out of line with those of past presidents — pointing to President Ford’s 1974 pardoning of former President Nixon to protect him from prosecution.
Trump campaign says he ‘respectfully disagrees’ with immunity ruling, will appeal -Former President Trump will appeal a court ruling that he is not immune from criminal prosecution, his campaign said Tuesday, setting up a likely fight at the Supreme Court.“Prosecuting a President for official acts violates the Constitution and threatens the bedrock of our Republic. President Trump respectfully disagrees with the DC Circuit’s decision and will appeal it in order to safeguard the Presidency and the Constitution,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement.Cheung echoed the argument Trump himself has made repeatedly in recent weeks, claiming that without total immunity, presidents would be subject to prosecution upon leaving office and would not be able to do their jobs.“Deranged Jack Smith’s prosecution of President Trump for his Presidential, official acts is unconstitutional under the doctrine of Presidential Immunity and the Separation of Powers,” Cheung said.A three-judge appeals court panel on Tuesday upheld a lower court ruling that deemed Trump is not immune from criminal prosecution as a former executive, blocking his effort to toss his federal 2020 election interference case on those grounds.“For the purpose of this criminal case, former President Trump has become citizen Trump, with all of the defenses of any other criminal defendant,” the panel for the District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals wrote in its 57-page decision.“We cannot accept former President Trump’s claim that a President has unbounded authority to commit crimes that would neutralize the most fundamental check on executive power — the recognition and implementation of election results. Nor can we sanction his apparent contention that the Executive has carte blanche to violate the rights of individual citizens to vote and to have their votes count,” the judges wrote in the decision.Trump is facing four felony charges in D.C. over his efforts to subvert the 2020 election results and remain in power. He is facing separate criminal cases in New York, Georgia and Florida.Tuesday’s ruling effectively forces him to appeal to the Supreme Court by Feb. 12. After that date, the D.C. Circuit panel said it would return the case to the trial court, unless Trump seeks emergency relief from the justices. In that scenario, the trial proceedings would remain on pause until the Supreme Court acts.
Trump’s immunity fight heads to Supreme Court --A ruling by a federal appeals panel Tuesday determining former President Trump is not protected by presidential immunity in his election subversion case also propels the legal battle to get to the Supreme Court within days.The ruling’s design essentially forces Trump to file an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court by Feb. 12 if he wants to keep his trial schedule on hold, which would help align with his strategy to delay any potential conviction until after November’s election. Such an appeal would add a second historic Trump-related dispute onto the justices’ schedule; they will hear oral arguments Thursday about whether he can be disqualified from the ballot under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause due to his actions surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.The Supreme Court has yet to intervene in Trump’s criminal cases. But the immunity issue now presents an imminent vehicle for the justices, three of whom were appointed by Trump during his presidency, to get involved. The former president was charged with four counts in August alleging he conspired to overturn the 2020 election and spurred his supporters to disrupt the Jan. 6, 2021, Electoral College count by Congress that marked the final step in affirming President Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. Trump pleaded not guilty to all the charges.The immunity ruling came as legal experts began to worry that the suspension of the trial proceedings by U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan while the appeals panel weighed the immunity argument would delay the case until after the election in which Trump will likely face Biden again.Chutkan had originally set a March 4 trial date, slating it to be the first of Trump’s four criminal cases to be heard. But Chutkan later shelved the schedule after both she and prosecutors conceded that Trump can tie things up as he appeals his immunity claims. The three-judge District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals panel’s ruling denying Trump’s immunity argument Tuesday hands a setback to Trump by effectively forcing Trump to appeal to the Supreme Court or otherwise have the case sent back to trial court.Within minutes of the appeals panel ruling, Trump’s campaign vowed that he would appeal.“Prosecuting a President for official acts violates the Constitution and threatens the bedrock of our Republic. President Trump respectfully disagrees with the DC Circuit’s decision and will appeal it in order to safeguard the Presidency and the Constitution,” Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign spokesman, said in a statement.
The Supreme Court’s Trump ruling could be the beginning of the end for our democracy The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments this week on whether states can keep Donald Trump from appearing on primary election ballots for president based on the U.S. Constitution’s insurrection clause. More seriously, it could decide that Trump is ineligible to be president again even if he wins the November election. We should hope for two outcomes: First, that the court does not use technicalities and procedural issues to evade a clear decision; and second, that it allows common sense and the fate of democracy to loom large in its decision. The case before the court is an appeal of a December ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court. It found, “President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President (and) because he is disqualified, it would be a wrongful act under the Election Code for the Secretary to list him as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot.” The basis of its decision is Section 3 of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, the so-called Disqualification Clause. It says public officials cannot hold office in government if they take oaths of loyalty to the Constitution and later participate in an insurrection. The Colorado Court affirmed that the riots on January 6, 2021, were an insurrection, and that Trump acted “overtly and voluntarily with the intent of aiding or furthering” it. What are some of the key questions before the court?
- 1. Does the clause apply to presidents? It doesn’t mention them specifically. This question came up when Congress debated the language in 1866. Maryland Sen. Reverdy Johnson asked why it didn’t mention the offices of president and vice president. Sen. Lot Morrill of Maine explained both offices were covered by the provision that “no person shall…hold any office under the United States” if they took an oath to support the Constitution, then violated it by participating in an insurrection. This exchange provides an insight into congressional intent.
- 2. Was the riot on January 6, 2021, an insurrection? Three contemporary courts have ruled it was: district courts in New Mexico and Colorado and the Colorado Supreme Court. The House January 6th Committee report refers to that day’s events as an insurrection 78 times. Severalother congressional documents do the same.
- 3. Did Trump participate? The Disqualification Clause applies not only to direct participation in insurrection but also to giving “aid or comfort” to insurrectionists. The previously mentioned courts ruled Trump did so by inciting violence on January 6, and the House impeached Trump for “incitement of insurrection.”
- 4. Shouldn’t it be up to voters whether Trump can be president again? The 14th Amendment states a qualification to serve as president, like the Constitution’s other requirements that a president must be a natural-born citizen of the U.S. and at least 35 years old. The Constitution’s qualifications are not subject to voter discretion.
- 5. Has Trump been denied due process? No. The Colorado District Court held a five-day trial in which the judge heard multiple motions by Trump’s attorneys and testimony from witnesses on Trump’s behalf.
- 6. What about Trump’s argument that he never swore to “support” the Constitution? Trump argues that although the 14th Amendment uses the word “support,” the presidential oath uses the words “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution.” Preserving, protecting and defending the Constitution are synonymous with supporting it.
The implications of this case go deeper than Trump’s eligibility to hold office. The U.S. Supreme Court will decide whether a solemn oath means anything in the United States today. The Constitution thinks it should. It not only requires each president-elect to swear fidelity to the Constitution, it requires the same by members of Congress, state legislators and “all executive and judicial officers both of the United States and several States.”
Supreme Court hears 14th Amendment challenge to Donald Trump -- Justices on the U.S. Supreme Court appeared skeptical Thursday of the effort to disqualify Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump from a state primary ballot because he allegedly engaged in an insurrection to try to cling to power after he lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden. The historic dispute comes from Colorado, where the state's Supreme Court threw Trump off Colorado's Republican primary ballot. But the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling could have national implications for Trump and his political fate. The plaintiffs in the case argue that Trump's actions in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election automatically disqualify him from office. Trump's lawyers counter that the case against him is one of overreach. The court's justices on Thursday, over more than two hours of oral arguments, broadly appeared to be searching for a way to keep Trump on ballots, leaving election decisions to voters. Chief Justice John Roberts asked the Colorado plaintiffs' attorney Jason Murray to ponder the consequences of his side's case. "I would expect that a goodly number of states will say whoever the Democratic candidate is, 'You're off the ballot.' For the Republican candidate, 'You're off the ballot,'" Roberts said. "It will come down to just a handful of states that are going to decide the presidential election. That's a pretty daunting consequence." Justice Elena Kagan, a liberal-leaning justice, similarly asked about the national implications of the Colorado move. Conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh asked Murray: "What about the idea that we should think about democracy? ... Because your position has the effect of disenfranchising voters to a significant degree." To this Murray responded: "The reason we're here is [former] President Trump tried to disenfranchise 80 million Americans who voted against him." The case was brought by Norma Anderson, who watched intruders storm the U.S. Capitol three years ago on television, from her home in Colorado. "They're trying to overthrow the government is what I was thinking," Anderson recalled before Thursday's oral arguments. Anderson, 91, is a Republican. She was the first woman to lead the Colorado House of Representatives and, later, the state's Senate. She said taking part in the lawsuit is her way of protecting democracy. "You have to remember, as old as I am, I was born in the Great Depression," she said. "I lived through World War II. I remember Hitler. I remember my cousin was with Eisenhower when they opened up the concentration camps. ... I mean, I understand protecting democracy."
Supreme Court poised to allow Trump to remain on Colorado ballot - The Supreme Court on Thursday seemed poised to allow former president Donald Trump to remain on the Colorado ballot, expressing deep concerns about permitting a single state to disqualify the leading Republican candidate from seeking national office. Justices from across the ideological spectrum warned of troubling political ramifications if they do not reverse a ruling from Colorado’s top court that ordered Trump off the ballot after finding that he engaged in insurrection around the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol. The court was considering the unprecedented and consequential question of whether a state court can enforce a rarely invoked, post-Civil War provision of the Constitution to disqualify Trump from returning to the White House. During more than two hours of argument, the justices asked questions that suggested their often divided bench could reach a unanimous or near-unanimous decision to reject the challenge to Trump’s eligibility brought by six Colorado voters. Not since the court’s 2000 ruling in Bush v. Gore, which focused on ballot-counting and sealed the election for President George W. Bush, has the Supreme Court been thrust into such a pivotal role in a presidential election. Advertisement Liberal Justice Elena Kagan repeatedly questioned whether one state should be allowed to decide whether a presidential candidate is disqualified. “Why should a single state have the ability to make this determination not only for their own citizens but for the rest of the nation?” she asked, adding, “That seems quite extraordinary, doesn’t it?” Conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett agreed, adding that “it just doesn’t seem like a state call.” Trump is quickly closing in on the GOP nomination, and several justices suggested that a state court ruling initiated by voters in one state to bar him from federal office would throw the presidential race into extreme disarray. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. predicted that a number of other states would quickly try to disqualify the leading Democratic candidate if the justices allowed the Colorado decision to stand. He called the prospect of a handful of states deciding the presidential election a “pretty daunting consequence.” Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh worried about disenfranchising voters if the court removed Trump from the ballot. “What about the idea that we should think about democracy, think about the right of the people to elect candidates of their choice, of letting the people decide?” he asked. In response, attorney Jason Murray, representing the Colorado voters, said, “The reason we’re here is that President Trump tried to disenfranchise 80 million Americans who voted against him, and the Constitution doesn’t require that he be given another chance.”
Supreme Court appears unlikely to kick Trump off Colorado ballot – SCOTUSblog -- The Supreme Court on Thursday appeared ready to hold that Colorado cannot exclude former President Donald Trump from the ballot based on his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the U.S. Capitol. During an oral argument that lasted for more than two hours, justices of all ideological stripes questioned the wisdom of allowing a state to make its own decisions about whether a candidate should appear on the ballot, both because of the effect that such decisions would have on the rest of the country and because of the hurdles that courts would face in reviewing those decisions. The case centers on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which was enacted in the wake of the Civil War to disqualify individuals from holding office who had previously served in the federal or state government before the war but then supported the Confederacy. It provides (as relevant here) that no one “shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State,” if that person had previously sworn, “as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States” to support the Constitution but then “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the federal government. Last fall a group of Colorado voters went to court, seeking to have Trump disqualified under Section 3 from appearing on the ballot. A trial court agreed that Trump had engaged in insurrection, but it nonetheless declined to remove him from the ballot because it concluded that the presidency is not an “office … under the United States,” and the president is not an “officer of the United States.” The Colorado Supreme Court ruled on Dec. 19 that Trump is ineligible to be president under Section 3 and should not be listed on the primary ballot. The court put its ruling on hold to give the Supreme Court time to weigh in, which the justices agreed to do on Jan. 5. Representing the former president, lawyer Jonathan Mitchell told the justices that states cannot use Section 3 to bar Trump from running for office – that is, to exclude him from the ballot – because Section 3 also leaves open the possibility that Congress could, by a two-thirds vote, lift the ban that Section 3 would otherwise impose after Trump is elected but before he actually takes office. And indeed, Mitchell said in response to questioning by Chief Justice John Roberts, under that rationale a state could not bar a candidate from the ballot even if he publicly admitted to being an insurrectionist. Mitchell compared the facts before the court to an effort by a state to require candidates for Congress to live in the state before Election Day, when they are only required to live there by the time they are elected. In both scenarios, Mitchell contended, states are “accelerating the deadline to meet a constitutionally imposed qualification.” Upholding the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision, he cautioned, would “take away the votes of potentially tens of millions” of voters.Jason Murray, representing the voters challenging Trump’s placement on the Colorado ballot, began his argument by painting a grave picture of the events of Jan. 6, telling the justices that “our nation’s capitol came under violent assault” for the first time since the War of 1812. “For the first time in history,” Murray continued, “the attack was incited by a sitting president of the United States to disrupt the peaceful transfer of presidential power.” “By engaging in an insurrection against the Constitution,” Murray said, Trump “disqualified himself from public office,” and now argues that the Supreme Court should create a special exception that – as a former president who did not hold office before being elected to the White House – would apply only to him. A central issue at Thursday’s argument was whether the question of how Section 3’s ban on government service by individuals who have “engaged in insurrection” can be enforced – do states like Colorado have the power to enforce it themselves, as the voters contend, or (as Trump argues) can it only be enforced through laws passed by Congress?
Fulton County DA’s office moves to quash Fani Willis, top prosecutor subpoenas ahead of hearing -The Fulton County district attorney’s office asked a Georgia judge Wednesday to quash subpoenas of top prosecutors in former President Trump’s 2020 election interference case that would require them to testify at a hearing next week over whether they should be booted from the case.After accusing Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) and special prosecutor Nathan Wade of having romantic ties, one of Trump’s co-defendants in Georgia subpoenaed the duo along with more than a half-dozen of their colleagues for the hearing, scheduled for Feb. 15. Both Willis and Wade last week admitted to having a “personal relationship,” but the district attorney’s office had described the calls to step aside baseless and said there is no need for the hearing.In a new 36-page motion Wednesday, the district attorney’s office described the subpoenas as “ill-conceived” and based on “reckless accusations,” urging Judge Scott McAfee to block the attempt to compel Willis, Wade and others to testify at the hearing. “Georgia law—as well as authority from across the country—predictably frowns on a process that permits counsel for one litigant to compel the testimony of counsel and employees of the opposing party, and there is no justification to depart from that general principle here,” special prosecutor Anna Green Cross wrote on the state’s behalf. The district attorney’s office also accused defense counsel of attempting to “disrupt and delay” the prosecution. “The effort should be promptly brought to a close,” prosecutors wrote.
Liz Cheney rips Vance after Jan. 6 remarks: Not ‘fit to serve’ -Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) went after Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) on Monday, saying he is not “fit to serve” after he said he would have chosen not to certify the 2020 election results withoutpro-Trump electors.Vance said Sunday in an ABC “This Week” interview he would have allowed states to send multiple slates of electors to Washington after the 2020 election and “Congress should have fought over it from there,” adding there “were problems” in the 2020 election.“Yesterday, J.D. Vance claimed that Trump could defy rulings of the Supreme Court as President,” Cheney wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Vance also admitted he would have done what VP Pence refused to do on January 6th — help Trump illegally seize power.” “That’s tyranny,” she continued. “Neither Trump nor Vance is fit to serve.” Then-Vice President Mike Pence refused to allow multiple slates of electors for the certification of the 2020 election, as the Constitution lays out, and did ultimately certify the results after thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to stop it. Vance also doubled down on September 2021 comments that the president can ignore “illegitimate” Supreme Court rulings, quoting President Andrew Jackson. “The chief justice has made his ruling. Now let him enforce it,” Vance quoted in the 2021 podcast. Jackson made the comment in 1832 in defiance of a Supreme Court ruling establishing the supremacy of federal law over states in matters of Native American tribes. Jackson later had Southern tribes forcibly removed from their territories.“The Constitution says that the Supreme Court can make rulings … but if the Supreme Court said the president of the United States can’t fire a general, that would be an illegitimate ruling,” Vance said Sunday.Later in the interview, Vance also said the verdicts in New York legal cases against former President Trump should be thrown out, citing jurors from “extremely left-wing jurisdictions.”
‘Fear of Being Outed as a Democrat’: Why the Party Struggles in Rural America - President Joe Biden isn’t going to win Wyoming in 2024 — and he doesn’t have to in order to hold the White House. But if Democrats don’t stop hemorrhaging support in rural areas, it could cost them in some of the key swing states they do need in November.Party officials are well aware of that dynamic. Since 2021, the national Democratic Party has invested millions of dollars in a “Red State Fund” to build out organizing in Republican strongholds. The Biden administration has also made huge investments in rural America through rural cooperatives and the bipartisan infrastructure law, which the president and his cabinet secretaries highlighted last fall on a two-week tour.Is any of it making an impact? I called up Greg Haas, the organizing director of the Wyoming Democratic Party, who said that it’s hard to break through to voters even with tangible projects.“People are so interested in the hot-button things,” he said in an interview with POLITICO Magazine. “Right now one of the parties is spending most of the time talking about the ‘invasion’ at the southern border.”Republicans have dominated the state for years — including well before Donald Trump won over 70 percent of the vote in 2020 — so Wyoming Democrats have long faced a steep journey back to relevancy. But lately, Haas said, his difficulty in building support for Democrats has gone beyond a tough national climate or the state’s conservative lean. Instead, the biggest challenge in organizing on the ground is America’s increasingly toxic political culture.The following has been edited for length and clarity from two conversations.
- From your perspective organizing in Wyoming, why do you think Democrats have struggled to compete in rural communities? Something I’ve experienced traveling around the state is that there is a palpable fear of even letting your friends know you are a Democrat, or even in line with what Democratic politicians are doing. There’s vandalism that takes place here, and people are scared of that. Having your yard sign stolen or your flag taken down is one thing, but having your car keyed or trash left in your yard, that’s another. I know people who have been harassed after they are outed as a Democrat, and then people give them trouble. People hear those stories. They’re not fake. They’re not made up. I’ve seen and heard some really ugly language.As a group, we are vilified. There’s a vocal part of the other political parties that makes up lies and says things about the Democratic Party to demonize us. There are Democrats who demonize other political parties, too. All of that tension leaves a bad taste in other people’s mouths. Most of us in Wyoming — people who are reasonable and love their state and their community — aren’t interested in just butting heads and this adversarial hatemongering. Nobody likes this angry style of dehumanizing communication.
- Why do those conditions make it difficult to organize? - Well, connect that with the fear. People have a fear of being outed as a Democrat. It makes it harder to have friendly conversations even with our friends and family.
- How about the candidates themselves? What are some of the challenges facing Democratic candidates as they run in such a rural, Republican state? In rural places, a candidate goes out on the campaign trail and they say that the first thing they have to do is distance themselves from the national party. Now, I don’t think they have to do that, but they feel like they have to do that. They say, “I’m not a Democrat like national Democrats.” So much news is nationalized, and there is so much news that is sensationalized. I think if you want to talk to people about local issues, that’s what you should focus on. It’s OK to bring the conversation back to the local issue. Local Wyoming officials are not going to solve the border crisis in Texas. People’s emotions run high on those hot-button issues, but when it comes right down to it, this local community does not come together on party lines. It comes together on what’s best for the community.
- Wyoming last had a Democratic governor — Dave Freudenthal — back in 2011. He was a conservative Democrat. Now, it’s not even close, a Democratic governor would have no shot. Why has that happened? Well, there’s a lot of fear. There’s a lot of misinformation. The world market is changing, and there’s a lot of people who — right or wrong — they feel like their livelihood is being threatened. And I think it’s easier to blame a group than it is to say, “Oh, it’s the market deciding that,” especially if you’re a pro-free market person always saying let the market decide. There are more and more people who are really afraid of what’s going to happen to their family ranch, or am I going to lose my job? And when people are that scared, I think as humans we have a tendency to find somebody to blame. And there are a lot of toxic elements in our culture, that have risen in strength and a lot of poisonous ways of thinking about the other person. … You know, “This person that doesn’t look like me or the people I grew up with is either going to take my job, or my kids’ job, or they’re just going to mooch off or get everything for free.”
‘Somewhat terrified’: A key Biden official gets candid on Trump’s agenda - Donald Trump’s return to the White House could be “catastrophic” for clean energy, particularly the still struggling offshore wind industry, a top Biden administration official says. Eric Beightel, who is in charge of coordinating infrastructure approvals across federal agencies, told the POLITICO Energy podcast he is “somewhat terrified” that a second Trump presidency would be “catastrophic to our hopes and dreams of our clean energy transition.” “What we saw during the last Trump administration is that offshore wind essentially stood still,” Beightel said during an interview for the podcast posted Thursday. “And what we’ve had to do since coming in was to pick that up. “If we had to do that again, coupled with the previous supply chain issues that we’ve already had to reconcile, that could be a death knell to this nascent industry,” said Beightel, executive director of the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council. His remarks offered an unusually stark assessment from an important but lesser-known administration official about the damage that Trump could do to President Joe Biden’s priorities if voters elect the GOP front-runner in November. Trump has derided Biden’s signature efforts to grow clean energy production — and has devoted much of his scorn to wind power, a years-old obsession dating back to his battles against developers of a wind farm near one of his golf courses in Scotland. His criticisms have ranged from more mainstream Republican arguments, questioning the reliability of the technology to the outlandish claim that wind turbines cause cancer. “If you have a windmill anywhere near your house, congratulations your house just went down 75 percent in value,” Trump said in a 2020 speech. “And they say the noise causes cancer. And of course it’s like a graveyard for birds.”
New Hampshire AG says fake Biden robocall before election traced to Texas firm --New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella (R) said the fake President Biden robocall that discouraged voters from voting for him in the Granite State primary can be traced back to a Texas-based firm. Formella said in a news release Tuesday that investigators identified the firm as Life Corp., which is run by Walter Monk. The Election Law Unit issued a cease-and-desist order to the Texas company. Formella said the robocalls were made Jan. 21, just days ahead of the New Hampshire primary. The attorney general said the calls reached thousands of Democratic voters in the state and are now being investigated for voter suppression.The recorded message imitated Biden’s voice falsely suggested to New Hampshire residents that voting in the primary would prevent them from voting in the general election scheduled for November. The source of the fake calls showed they were coming from the former state Democratic Party chair, Kathy Sullivan. Sullivan formed a Super PAC, dubbed Granite for America, that spearheaded the initiative to write in Biden on the ballot. Despite not being on the ballot in the state primary, Biden won New Hampshire with close to 64 percent of the vote as a write-in candidate, according to Decision Desk HQ, the partner of The Hill.
AI-generated voices in robocalls can deceive voters. The FCC just made them illegal. - — The Federal Communications Commission on Thursdayoutlawed robocalls that contain voices generated by artificial intelligence, a decision that sends a clear message that exploiting the technology to scam people and mislead voters won’t be tolerated. The unanimous ruling targets robocalls made with AI voice-cloning tools under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act, a 1991 law restricting junk calls that use artificial and prerecorded voice messages.The announcement comes as New Hampshire authorities are advancingtheir investigation into AI-generated robocalls that mimicked President Joe Biden’s voice to discourage people from voting in the state’s first-in-the-nation primary last month.Effective immediately, the regulation empowers the FCC to fine companies that use AI voices in their calls or block the service providers that carry them. It also opens the door for call recipients to file lawsuits and gives state attorneys general a new mechanism to crack down on violators, according to the FCC.“Bad actors are using AI-generated voices in unsolicited robocalls to extort vulnerable family members, imitate celebrities, and misinform voters,” the agency’s chairwoman, Jessica Rosenworcel, said in a news release. “We’re putting the fraudsters behind these robocalls on notice.”Under the consumer protection law, telemarketers generally cannot use automated dialers or artificial or prerecorded voice messages to call cellphones, and they cannot make such calls to landlines without prior written consent from the call recipient.The new ruling classifies AI-generated voices in robocalls as “artificial” and thus enforceable by the same standards, the FCC said.Those who break the law can face steep fines, maxing out at more than $23,000 per call, the FCC said. The agency has previously used the consumer law to clamp down on robocallers interfering in elections, including imposing a $5 million fine on two conservative hoaxers for falsely warning people in predominantly Black areas that voting by mail could heighten their risk of arrest, debt collection and forced vaccination.
Microsoft can’t keep itself safe — why are we trusting it with our national security? -- Recently, Microsoft made the stunning admission that Russian-based hackers breached its systems and gained weeks-long access to the emails and accounts of senior executives. For the U.S. government, which overwhelmingly relies on Microsoft products, these incidents amount to a five-alarm fire about the security of one of its largest technology partners. Nation-state hackers that attack our government and the vendors it relies on pose a clear threat to our national security. Now is the time to move beyond criticism and actually hold government technology contractors with repeated cybersecurity issues accountable. Much like efforts to hold the defense industry accountable, Congress should consider a wide range of options, from demanding higher baseline cybersecurity standards to incentive payments that reward effective cybersecurity. To jumpstart progress, Congress must hold Microsoft accountable and press the administration to pause additional funding for Microsoft IT contracts until the company gets its security house in order. As one of the U.S. federal government’s primary technology vendors, Microsoft should hold itself to a higher cybersecurity standard. Indeed, the company has touted itself repeatedly asone of the leaders in global cybersecurity. Microsoft holds an 85 percent market share in the U.S. government’s productivity software, provides cybersecurity services to the U.S. government and its allies and serves highly classified workloads on its Azure cloud service — responsibilities that make Microsoft a primary target for nation-state activity. Yet, the cavalier attitude Microsoft takes toward product security has resulted in multiple, successful nation-state cyberattacks against the IT software our government agencies depend upon. In this most recent incident, Microsoft failed to protect itself against a password spray attack, a simple breach tactic avoidable even by rudimentary cybersecurity measures. The fact that this hack could have been stopped by implementing basic cybersecurity best practices is egregious and representative of the company’s cultural failures in its approach to cybersecurity in general. The incident comes on the heels of a breach of Microsoft’s systems by Chinese state-sponsored hackers in July that compromised the accounts of several top lawmakers, including those of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns.
Google calls on US to do more to rein in spyware sales, misuse - Google is calling on the government to provide more action when it comes to combatting spyware sales and the misuse of surveillance software, according to a new report.“The harm is not hypothetical,” Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) said Tuesday in its report,titled “Buying Spying,” adding that “spyware vendors point to their tools’ legitimate use in law enforcement and counterterrorism.” “However, spyware deployed against journalists, human rights defenders, dissidents, and opposition pay politicians — what Google refers to as ‘high risk users’ — has been well documented, both by analysis from Google, and by researchers from organizations like the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab and Amnesty International,” the report reads. The company specifically called out certain “commercial surveillance vendors” (CSVs),including NSO Group — an Israeli company that developed the notorious Pegasus spyware that grew to be a notable threat to human rights and human rights. Others named in the report were Italian firms Cy4Gate and RCS Labs, Greek company Intellexa, and the lesser-known Italian company Negg Group and Spain’s Variston.“We hope this report will serve as a call to action,” the TAG report continues. “As long as there is a demand from governments to buy commercial surveillance technology, CSVs will continue to develop and sell spyware.”“We believe it is time for government, industry and civil society to come together to change the incentive structure which has allowed these technologies to spread so widely,” the group added.The news comes as the U.S. unveiled a new program Monday to impose visa restrictions on foreign individuals involved in the misuse of commercial spyware, per The Associated Press. Findings in 2021 concluded that a United Arab Emirates (UAE) agency downloaded Pegasus software on the phone of Hanan Elatr, the widow of the late Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, months before he was murdered. Elatr later sued NSO Group in 2023, accusing them of violating federal and Virginia hacking laws and negligence in selling the Pegasus spyware to hostile foreign actors. “Demand from government customers remains strong and our findings underscore the extent to which CSVs have proliferated hacking and spyware capabilities that weaken the safety of the Internet for all,” the TAG report reads.“To meet the demand from government customers CSVs find and develop exploits, and have emerged as well-paying customers of exploit developers and brokers, incentivizing exploit sales at the expense of security,” the company wrote.
Democrat blocks request to strip tech companies of legal immunity related to child pornography -- Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) on Tuesday objected to a request to pass by unanimous consent a bill approved by the Senate Judiciary Committee to strip big tech companies of legal immunity for child pornography and other child predatory material posted on their social media platforms. Wyden argued the legislation would weaken the encryption safeguards of popular websites and apps and inadvertently make it easier for predators to gain access the communications and photos of children. The bill, sponsored by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), passed through the Judiciary Committee unanimously in May of 2023. But despite receiving overwhelming bipartisan support on the committee level, the legislation has sat in limbo for months. Hawley on Tuesday tried to move it on the Senate floor by asking for unanimous consent to consider and approve the measure. “It’s largely, overwhelmingly young teenage girls, young women, who are bombarded with the most unbelievable pictures, content, conduct as soon as they get on to these platforms,” he said. “It’s time for Congress to act. Let’s take the work we’ve done, let’s put it on the floor,” he said. Hawley’s bill, the Strengthening Transparency and Obligation to Protect Children Suffering from Abuse and Mistreatment (STOP CSAM) Act, would roll back tech companies’ legal immunity under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which protects social media platforms from facing legal liability for material posted to their sites. Specifically, the legislation would allow the victims of child pornography or other child exploitation to circumvent Sect. 20 to sue a tech platform for intentionally, knowingly or recklessly hosting child sexual abuse material. Hawley said Section 230 immunity is a “sweetheart deal” that gives major tech companies little incentive to crack down on child pornography and other indecent material targeting minors. “Until victims can get into court and have the rights and dignity of every other American challenging any other company this will not change,” Hawley said. “Congress created this problem. Congress created it by giving the most powerful companies in the world a sweetheart deal they still have to this day.” Wyden, however, stood up on the floor to object to Hawley’s request. He argued that Hawley’s bill would give courts a path to punish tech companies for using strong encryption technology. “The bill would weaken the single strongest technology that now protects children and families. That’s strong encryption. It will make it easier to punish sites that use encryption to secure private conversations and personal devices,” Wyden asserted. The Oregon lawmaker insisted he takes “a backseat to no one when it comes to helping kids and punishing predators” but warned the bill would threaten “the privacy and security of every single law-abiding American.”
PA Court System Websites Go Offline After Denial Of Service Cyberattack - Parts of Pennsyvania's Courts' website went down on Sunday due to a denial of service cyberattack, according to 6ABC.PA Systems like PACFile, the use of online docket sheets, PAePay, and the Guardianship Tracking System were all affected, the report says. "At this time, there is no indication that any court data was compromised, and the courts will remain open and accessible to the public," the court said in an obligatorily reassuring sounding statement over the week.As 6ABC noted, a denial of service attacks works by flooding a network with traffic until a server is either unusable or crashes altogether. Chief Justice of Pennsylvania Debra Todd told ABC: "Our court information technology and executive team is working closely with law enforcement, including the CISA, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the F.B.I to investigate the incident."ABC National News reported later in the weekend that the Administrative Office of Pennsylvania Courts had not yet disclosed the identities of the assailants or their possible motivations. There was no confirmation regarding the effectiveness of their cybersecurity protocols, nor have there been any reports indicating whether the attackers sought financial demands or a ransom. The state's courts remained open, multiple sources, including NBC, said.
Ransomware payments hit record $1.1B: Report - Ransomware payments skyrocketed in 2023, hitting a record-high $1.1 billion extorted from targets of the schemes, according to a Chainalysis report released Wednesday. The New York-based firm’s report details ransomware actors going after companies such as British Airways, as well as targeting infrastructure that yielded a surge of ransom payments. The 2023 figure is a vast increase from the $567 million extorted in 2022, indicating that ransomware is “an escalating problem,” according to the report. Cybercriminal groups have targeted schools, hospitals and casinos. The groups have also gone after wealthier companies. They’ve utilized a “big game hunting” strategy, deploying fewer attacks, but getting bigger payloads with each strike, according to Chainalysis. Caesars Entertainment, the casino company, was hit with a cyberattack last September, days after MGM Resorts International, another casino company, reported having “cybersecurity issues,” causing a shutdown of some of the hotel and casino computer systems. MGM Resorts had $100 million in recovery costs from the attack. The Chainalysis report does not detail additional losses that often surpass millions of dollars after a break-in occurs. U.S. fuel operator Colonial Pipeline had to shut down operations for several days in May after a ransomware attack. On Thursday, the State Department announced a reward of up to $10 million to those who have information that could help identify or locate leaders connected to Hive, a global ransomware gang, known for extorting more than $100 million in ransom payments. The Department of Justice dismantled the group in January last year.
US to require cryptocurrency mines to report energy use data The U.S. government will require companies that mine for cryptocurrency to report information on their energy use.The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said that starting next week, it will “survey identified commercial cryptocurrency miners, which are required to respond with details related to their energy use.”“We will specifically focus on how the energy demand for cryptocurrency mining is evolving, identify geographic areas of high growth, and quantify the sources of electricity used to meet cryptocurrency mining demand,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a written statement this week. The survey was authorized by the White House Office of Management and Budget as an “emergency collection of data request.”In order to introduce new cryptocurrency into circulation, “mines” use energy-consuming computers. These computers generate solutions to puzzles that unlock new cryptocurrency.Cryptocurrency mining in the U.S. has grown significantly over the past few years, especially after a 2021 crackdown on the activity in China. A preliminary estimate from the EIA said that under the low-end of its estimate, cryptocurrency mining represents electricity usage equal to entire states like Utah and West Virginia.It makes up from 0.6 percent to 2.3 percent of the nation’s total electricity consumption.The EIA said that this use has led to concerns about strains on the nation’s electric grid, the potential for higher electricity prices and additional carbon dioxide emissions that warm the planet. The increased electricity demand due to cryptocurrency mining has, in some places, enabled idled fossil fuel power plants to come back online.Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns over the practice’s energy use and climate implications and have urged the federal government to track them.
SEC crypto regulations discussed as 'millions of dollars in legal fees accrue' - In a recent discussion, Austin Arnold, the co-founder of influential YouTube channel "Altcoin Daily," offered insights into the intricate landscape of crypto regulations. Arnold focused on the Howey test, originally part of the Securities Act of 1933, and its application to the diverse world of cryptocurrencies. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) relies on the Howey test to determine if an asset is a commodity or security, and that determination can have significant regulatory and market impacts on novel digital assets as their regulatory fates are decided."If an asset meets all four prongs of the Howey test, then it's a security, and is thus required to register with the SEC, under requirements of the Securities Act," CoinDesk explained. "If an asset does not meet those prongs, then it's not. And from those prongs, millions of dollars in legal fees accrue."Reflecting on the state of crypto regulation in the U.S., Arnold pointed out a paradox whereby a strict interpretation of this standard would determine that even tokens from Chuck E. Cheese or collectibles like baseball cards could be deemed to be securities.Commending the SEC for its nuanced approach in distinguishing between different types of assets, Arnold advocated for a tailored regulatory framework for various cryptocurrency categories. From NFTs to stablecoins, governance tokens and transactional tokens, each, according to Arnold, requires a unique regulatory perspective.Arnold also shared his optimism regarding Coinbase's ongoing legal battle with the SEC over alleged securities violations, emphasizing a recent acknowledgment of the challenge in aligning crypto with regulations conceived long before the digital era. Drawing parallels with Ripple's successful defense against the SEC, Arnold speculated on Coinbase's potential victory, acknowledging the unpredictable nature of legal outcomes and highlighting the SEC's recent struggles in regulating the dynamic crypto landscape.
Republican senators slam SEC over ‘deeply troubling’ conduct in crypto case -- Several Republican senators slammed the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday over its “deeply troubling” conduct in a recent case against the cryptocurrency company DEBT Box. The SEC brought the case against DEBT Box in July, accusing the company of “an ongoing, sprawling, fraudulent securities offering” that defrauded investors of at least $49 million. The federal judge overseeing the case granted the agency’s request for a temporary restraining order that froze DEBT Box’s assets after the SEC suggested individuals associated with the company were “currently in the process of attempting to relocate assets and investor funds overseas.” However, the judge reversed his decision in late November, voicing concerns that the SEC “made materially false and misleading representations” that “undermined the integrity of the proceedings.” The SEC acknowledged in December that one of its attorneys made a statement at a July hearing that “unbeknownst to him at the time, was inaccurate” and that its attorneys “failed to correct that statement when they learned of the inaccuracy.” The agency filed a motion to dismiss the case last week. In a letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler on Wednesday, Sens. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) and Katie Britt (R-Ala.) expressed concerns about the agency’s conduct. “It is unconscionable that any federal agency—especially one regularly involved in highly consequential legal procedures and one that, under your leadership, has often pursued its regulatory mission through enforcement actions rather than rulemakings—could operate in such an unethical and unprofessional manner,” the senators wrote. “That the Commission counsel could be so unfamiliar with the relevant facts of the case, and that Commission attorneys could have such little regard for the veracity of evidence presented to the Court, is deeply troubling,” they added. The senators also questioned whether other enforcement cases brought by the SEC should be scrutinized given its recent actions. “It is difficult to maintain confidence that other cases are not predicated upon dubious evidence, obfuscations, or outright misrepresentations,” they wrote. “The public must have well-placed confidence in the Commission’s enforcement actions, its motives for undertaking them, and its professionalism when carrying them out,” the senators later added. “This trust is undermined, and your mission compromised, by episodes like the DEBT Box case.” The Hill has reached out to the SEC for comment.
Jes Staley Lied About Cutting Off Epstein: Court Filing -- Former Barclays CEO and 'Disney princess' aficionado Jes Staley lied about cutting off communication with now-deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, and instead used an intermediary 'for years,' according to new legal filings seen by Bloomberg. The filings contradict what Staley told the Barclays board about the pair's relationship, along with a US regulatory probe that found no evidence of contact after October 2015.The documents, filed in the now-concluded US Virgin Islands lawsuit against Staley's former employer, JPMorgan Chase, the go-between - whose identity is redacted - "acted as an intermediary for messages between Staley and Epstein" for several years after joining Barclays. Epstein emailed the go-between in November 2016 and February 2017 with questions for Staley. Epstein’s messages were passed on to Staley verbally, before the intermediary passed on his reply, according to the documents submitted by JPMorgan as part of a court filing. The bank, which through Staley served Epstein as a client, settled the case last year for $75 million. In the first partially redacted email — sent about a year after Staley joined Barclays — Epstein wrote to the intermediary in an apparent attempt to discuss the appointment of the Treasury Secretary in Donald Trump’s incoming administration. –Bloomberg "Could you ask [REDACTED] if he would like to considered for treasury [sic]," Epstein wrote the go-between on Nov. 27, 2016 - weeks after Trump's surprise win over Hillary Clinton."Will do. He’s on a plane to London right now but I’ll reach him after," was Staley's reply.The intermediary later added: "Spoke with him. He said not yet, but thanks." Then in Feb. 2017, Epstein once again emailed the intermediary in order to get an opinion on Staley's former JPMorgan colleague."Can you ask [REDACTED] his opinion of Véronique Weill she wants to join rothschild [sic]," wrote the pedophile."Will do. I will speak with him today and get back to you," the go-between replied."Thx," Epstein replied.Later that day, the intermediary wrote to Epstein: "He thinks she is great and is a big fan of hers. Good recommendation for rothschild [sic]."The documents are a clear indication that Epstein and Staley's relationship continued on for much longer than previously known - as years of direct emails and phone calls suddenly transitioned to the use of said intermediary.When asked in a New York deposition last June in a separate case, Staley insisted that he had last spoken with Epstein in October or November of 2015."Being CEO of a major British bank is a very, very visible job, and I thought it was not appropriate to deal at all with Epstein in that role," said Staley, claiming that he had come to realize that Epstein had a "very, very terrible past."Which happened five years after Staley emailed Epstein about Disney princesses. "That was fun," Staley allegedly wrote to Epstein. "Say hi to Snow White."To which Epstein replied: "[W]hat character would you like next?""Beauty and the Beast." Epstein also emailed Staley photos of young women in seductive poses, according to a filing in the Virgin Islands case.Staley, according to the filing, "visited Epstein’s properties in the Virgin Islands and elsewhere," and "exchanged hundreds of messages with Epstein from his JPMorgan email account in full view of JPMorgan, including some with photos of young women, discussed Epstein’s provision of services to him during his travel on dates that closely corresponded with Epstein’s payments to the same young woman from his JPMorgan accounts, and discussed young women or girls procured by Epstein using the names of Disney princesses."
Blowing the Door Off Boeing’s ‘Epstein Deal’ - Maureen Tkacik -Late on the evening of January 7, 2021, beneath 20 headlines on the Capitol Riot and another five on the COVID-19 pandemic, a story appeared on theWashington Post website announcing that the Justice Department had closed its investigation into Boeing’s development and subsequent cover-ups of thedeadly self-hijacking software that crashed two brand-new 737 MAX 8 jets three years earlier. Family members of the 346 people who died and aviation geeks were universally flabbergasted by the terms of the deferred prosecution agreement (DPA), which let Boeing off with a $244 million fine and what amounted to three years’ probation. (The DOJ press release attempted to take credit for another $2.27 billion in payments Boeing would make to its customers and families of the crash victims, as though those parties’ own lawyers hadn’t been toiling for years to get those payments.) With air travel still down nearly two-thirds from pre-pandemic levels, and the news cycle preoccupied with familiarizing readers with the 25th Amendment and the “QAnon shaman,” virtually no one outside the airplane business even heard about it. An outraged tweet from Leeham News, a must-read source of information on the MAX crashes, garnered all of 14 likes.In Boeing’s case, federal prosecutors had not only refused to confer with grieving families, but they repeatedly and falsely told them that Boeing was not under investigation at all, then implausibly denied they even counted as “victims” of the crimes the agency had been probing.“The Justice Department is gaslighting our families and inflicting new wounds,” the wife of a United Nations World Food Program engineer killed in the Ethiopian Airlines 302 crash said of the “sweetheart agreement.” […] But two years before Boeing’s DPA, Cassell had wielded the law to functionally—if not jurisprudentially—defenestrate perhaps the most appalling plea deal of all time, the September 2007 non-prosecution agreement between then-U.S. Attorney Alexander Acosta and the late pedophile sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. While the Miami Herald has been broadly credited for exposing Epstein’s shocking deal in its award-winning “Perversion of Justice” series, it was Cassell and his fellow attorney Brad Edwards whose CVRA litigation forced the Justice Department, starting in 2014, to hand over their internal emails on the agreement. And while Epstein’s deal was never formally thrown out, he was arrested on new charges within months of a scathing 33-page ruling in which federal judge Kenneth Marra detailed the mind-bending deference Acosta, Palm Beach County DA Barry Krischer, and others observed toward Epstein’s defense attorneys. Epstein’s attorneys claimed the second arrest violated the terms of a deal that had been endorsed by the highest-ranking law enforcement officials in the land, including Deputy AG Mark Filip. By that point, though, Filip had returned to the private sector, and was running the team representing Boeing in the criminal investigation of the MAX crashes.Boeing’s victims wondered if the “Epstein deal” Filip had scored for his client might be similarly cast aside if the gory details behind it were exposed. But the clock was ticking: The DPA had been set to expire three years after it went into effect, after which the DOJ would spend another six months assessing Boeing’s compliance before moving to either extend the agreement or, more likely, dismiss it altogether with prejudice. That meant that for practical purposes, the victims could only hope to exert any influence over the DOJ’s treatment of Boeing until June 2024.But for nearly two years, Cassell tried and failed to extract information about how Boeing had landed its sweetheart deal. Finally in December, he found a Freedom of Information Act attorney named Greg Lipper to sue DOJ for stonewalling the victims’ families. Then, two days before Boeing’s DPA was set to expire, another brand-new Boeing 737 MAX experienced a bizarre and terrifying malfunction just a few minutes after takeoff, when a door plug flew clean off the fuselage and landed fully intact in some guy’s Portland backyard. This time, the plane landed safely and everyone on board survived. But by the time passengers disembarked the flight, America was madder than ever at Boeing. THE PUBLIC FURY OVER ALASKA AIRLINES Flight 1282’s flyaway door plug has been so uniquely and righteously intense that it’s easy to forget how downright wholesome failing to install four bolts in a door is when graded on the tsunami-grade curve set by the crashes of Lion Air 610 and Ethiopian Airlines 302, and the campaign of corporate fraud and disinformation that caused them. […]Then as now, all those problems shared a common root cause: While Boeing is in the business of designing and manufacturing unimaginably complex machines, the people who control its purse strings are tyrannically simple-minded men who view airplanes as a necessary evil toward achieving the higher purpose of dividends and stock buybacks. In a tradition that began at Jack Welch’s General Electric, where three of Boeing’s last four CEOs trained to be bosses, Boeing maintained a kind of affirmative action for executives and board members who lacked an engineering background and were subsequently less likely to oppose savage budget cuts or promote developing new planes. When the first MCAS crash happened, Boeing’s 13-member board of directors boasted just a single engineer, then-CEO Dennis Muilenburg; today, there are four engineers on the Boeing board, though its CEO David Calhoun is an accountant by training, and his apparent protégés, chief operating officer Stephanie Pope and chief financial officer Brian West, also lack engineering backgrounds. (They also lack an affinity for going into the office: Neither Calhoun nor West lives anywhere near Boeing’s factories or its Northern Virginia corporate headquarters, though the CEO has used Boeing’s private jets more than 400 times in his three years at the company.)
Bankrupt Crypto Lender Genesis Global Settles NY Fraud Lawsuit (Reuters) - Crypto lender Genesis Global has settled a lawsuit that the New York Attorney General brought against it last year, eliminating a major legal burden as it wades through its bankruptcy proceedings.Attorney General Letitia James had sued the company, its parent Digital Currency Group (DCG) and cryptocurrency firm Gemini Trust Co in October for allegedly "defrauding" investors of more than $1 billion.James had alleged Genesis defrauded investors through an investment program called Gemini Earn, which it ran with its former partner Gemini.The Earn program allowed Gemini customers to loan their crypto assets to Genesis and earn interest in exchange.The settlement agreement filed on Thursday, which needs to be approved by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, disclosed that Genesis has agreed to cease conducting business in the state of New York. Last week, Genesis also settled a U.S. Securities Exchange Commission lawsuit over the Earn program, agreeing to a $21 million fine that will be paid only if it is able to fully repay customers in its bankruptcy.
Kansas Bank Commissioner responds to massive Elkhart crypto scam, sends warning- "I was surprised. I was shocked. I was disappointed. All of those feelings. How could this happen? Why did it happen," said Kansas State Bank Commissioner David Herndon.Herndon is talking about the massive cryptocurrency scam at the Heartland Tri-State Bank in Elkhart."A cryptocurrency scheme that the FBI is now referring to as 'Pig Butchering,'" he said.Herndon says a 'Pig Butchering' scheme is just like it sounds. A scammer convinces a victim into supposedly legitimate virtual currency transactions, and then 'butchers' them by stealing the money.In this case, Herndon says the butcher was Shan Hanes, the bank's own CEO. Now, he's facing charges of embezzling nearly $50 million, a loss that caused the bank to fail last August.Herndon says it's not just Kansas that's seeing this problem."According to the FBI, it's increasing investment fraud. From '21 to '22, it increased 183%. And it's now into the billions of dollars that's, that's being stolen," said Herndon.Court documents say Hanes stole the money from a local church and an investment club.While crypto scams aren't always this extreme, Herndon says they'll likely keep increasing, so you should always keep your guard up, and as always, if you see something, say something."Nobody is immune, whether it's an individual or business, or a municipality," Herndon said. "So pay attention. Don't click on unknown links or reply to emails that you're not familiar with or not aware of. And if you do find or feel that you're a victim, call law enforcement."If convicted of the crimes, Hanes could spend up to 30 years in prison and pay a fine of up to $1 million.
Ex-CEO of failed Kansas bank charged with embezzling $47 million -Shan Hanes, the former CEO of failed Heartland Tri-State Bank, was indicted in U.S. District Court on charges of embezzling $47.1 million from the Elkhart, Kansas-based lender before its collapse in July. Federal prosecutors allege that he took money from a local church and a local investment club and funneled it into cryptocurrency investments for his "personal benefit." Beginning around May 30 and continuing through at least July 7, prosecutors said in court documents, Hanes embezzled funds from the $139 million-asset Heartland Tri-State and its customers "by causing at least 11 wire transfer financial transactions" from the bank. He "did not have authority to make the wire transfers or to use Heartland Tri-State Bank funds to purchase cryptocurrency." The transfers ultimately resulted in investments that flopped and, by extension, in losses for the bank that "caused" its failure, prosecutors with the U.S. attorney's office in Wichita, Kansas, alleged. Hanes couldn't be reached for comment Thursday. The Kansas Office of the State Bank Commissioner shuttered Heartland Tri-State and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. seized the bank on July 28. Dream First Bank of Syracuse, Kansas, assumed all of its deposits. Heartland Tri-State was the first community bank failure of 2023. The FDIC said the agreement caused a $54.2 million hit to its Deposit Insurance Fund. There were five failures overall last year, including the $66 million-asset Citizens Bank in Sac City, Iowa. There were no bank failures in 2022 or the year before. But four banks failed in each of 2019 and 2020, according to FDIC data. Hanes, a former chair of the Kansas Bankers Association, could face up to 30 years in prison if convicted.
Bank regulators say SEC rule may undermine custody banking — A rare clash between President Biden's financial regulators is unfolding over custody banking. In correspondence with Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu expressed misgivings about the Securities and Exchange Commission's proposed changes to its safeguarding rule — changes that would significantly broaden the rule's scope. Critics say that it would, at minimum, upend custody banking. Neither regulator described a close rule-making relationship with the SEC on this proposal, although they both said it would affect banks. "The fact that the prudential regulators have confirmed that the SEC did not consult with them is alarming enough," Barr said in an interview. "But the fact that they don't agree, that they have concerns with what the SEC is doing is I think even more troubling. That's what we haven't seen before." Powell said in a Jan. 12 letter to Barr — responding to a Nov. 1 letter from Barr — that the SEC's proposal, if adopted, would "require a significant change in custody practices at depository institutions." Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu said in a separate letter that the changes could lead to "higher client costs or more limited service." The pushback from the banking regulators is unusual, since regulators rarely criticize other regulators within the same administration. Barr, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee's financial institutions subcommittee, is one of the most vocal critics in Congress of the SEC's Gary Gensler, often railing against his actions at the agency in hearings, and criticizing the policymaker in public missives. On this occasion, however, several Democratic lawmakers on the House Financial Services Committee joined Barr in his November letter. In an interview, Barr said that the comments from Hsu and Powell are "more evidence that the Gensler SEC has gone rogue and needs to be reined in." "They need to start listening to the other regulators, not just Congress, which, of course, we have oversight responsibility, but also they need to start listening to other executive branch regulators, because they're working at cross purposes," Barr said.
Can AI help when a scam is invisible to the bank? - Last week, New York's Attorney General sued Citi for allegedly failing to detect scams that bilked customers out of tens of thousands of dollars and for not reimbursing those customers. Cited cases involved scammers sending text messages to customers that directed them to websites where they gave up online banking credentials. That let the fraudsters commit account takeover and send large wire transfers from the customers' accounts to accounts at other banks.To what extent could AI be useful in cases like these, when customers are targeted directly in scams that are invisible to the bank?Banks may not be able to detect the fake messages fraudsters send their customers — they don't have that visibility. But they can and do use machine learning techniques in such cases in two ways: One is to identify physical behavior, such as typing or tapping patterns, that deviate from the customer's usual activity. The other is to spot anomalous transactions, including out-of-character wire transfers.The first approach can help a bank whose customers are being scammed directly by fake text messages, said Dominic Venturo, chief digital officer at U.S. Bank, which is based in Minneapolis. "There are solutions today that look at other elements of the data stream so that if somebody turns up using somebody's user ID and password, there are other ways to know that that's not them, that that's potentially a bad actor trying to enter what is an otherwise legitimate user ID and password." Many authentication providers, including BioCatch and Socure, can collect a customer's device ID, IP address and behavioral biometric clues such as typing speed and the angle at which a customer typically holds their phone, to raise a red flag when a behavior does not line up with a customer's normal activity. The second approach, using AI to monitor wire transfers, also can catch behavior that a human might not be able to spot."If somebody never does a wire transfer and all of a sudden they're doing a transfer and it's a large amount, that's something that you might want to flag for review," said Jim Mortensen, strategic advisor at Datos Insights.
Why I Brought My Toddler to Protest at Citi CEO Jane Fraser’s House -- Most families spend their weekend mornings running errands, with friends, or at the playground. But on a chilly Saturday in January, my little family of three joined 35 parents and kids bright and early for a different kind of activity: protesting outside Citi CEO Jane Frasers’ posh West Village apartment building. Here’s why: According to the U.N., more than 43 million children have been displaced by climate disasters in the last six years. On average, that is 20,000 children displaced by climate change per day—20,000 children whose toys, clothes, and comforts were gone in an instant, 20,000 more children every day who don’t have a place to sleep at night because of climate disasters. And 20,000 children every day who are terrified, facing an uncertain future. The U.N. report also noted that whether short or long term, displacement amplifies “risks of exploitation, child trafficking, and abuse, while also exposing children to malnutrition, disease, and inadequate immunization,” compounding children’s trauma and putting them at greater risk of death.We arrived early in the morning at Fraser’s fortress of a building. We brought toys, instruments, snacks (of course), and a 40-foot banner representing the children displaced by fossil fuel disasters. We read a story about Citibank, talked about what home means to us, chanted, and sang.As long as Jane Fraser and Wall Street continue to fuel climate disasters with money for new fossil fuels, they don’t deserve peaceful Saturday mornings.Passersby and building residents gawked at us. Some took photos. The doorman quickly closed the massive gate to the building’s interior parking lot (in Manhattan!) and called the police. Within 10 minutes there were several police officers and cars parked on the narrow street informing us we could be arrested for playing music without a permit. Arrests would have left a lot of toddlers alone to roam, so we yelled and sang at the top of our lungs. We were there to tell Jane Fraser to wake up to the real world impacts of her choices as Citi’s chief. 20,000 children are displaced every day—not by chance or because of unforeseen disasters, but because of the greed of companies that continue to fund fossil fuel expansion in flagrant opposition to a decades-long consensus of the world’s scientists. While we go about our day-to-day lives, fossil fuel and Wall Street CEOs like Fraser are knowingly evicting millions of children from their homes from the comfort of their boardrooms and mansions. Despite ambitious climate rhetoric from Fraser, a fancy LEED-certified headquarters, and her statement that she wants Citi to “be known as the bank with a soul,” Citi has funneled $332.9 billion to fossil fuels since the 2016 Paris agreement, fueling the disasters displacing children around the world. Citi is also the No. 1 bank funding fossil fuel development in Africa and the second biggest funder of oil and gas expansion n the Amazon basin. Among Citi’s biggest fossil fuel clients are ExxonMobil, which has no plan to transition away from oil and gas, and Saudi Aramco, whose funding relationship with Citi saw the bank named in a U.N. complaint on climate-linked human rights violations.This makes clear that despite what Fraser says, Citi is anything but the bank with a soul; there is nothing more soulless than displacing millions of children for profit.And children aren’t just being displaced by the fossil fueled climate crisis: They are starving. According to Save the Children, 27 million children were hungry or malnourished in 2022 due to extreme weather caused by climate change. If banks like Citi continue pumping money into fossil fuel expansion, that’s ensuring that more children will starve.As a parent, I shudder at the thought of being unable to feed my child. And I know how important having a safe home is for all children and their caregivers. I also know that the millions of families most impacted by climate disasters around the world don’t have the opportunity that I do, as a New Yorker, to show up on the doorstep of the financiers who are profiting from fossil fuel destruction.
Jamie Dimon Has Spent $117 Billion Propping Up JPMorgan’s Share Price with Buybacks in 10 Years; He’s Counting on Trump’s MAGA Crowd to Rescue Him -- On January 17, Jamie Dimon stunned CNBC viewers when he launched into what sounded like a TV commercial for Republican Presidential candidate and91-count indictee Donald Trump. Dimon stated:“Take a step back, be honest. He was kind of right about NATO, kind of right about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Tax reform worked. He was right about some of China…He wasn’t wrong about some of these critical issues.” Dimon also said that Democrats need to be more respectful of their fellow citizens that identify as MAGA Republicans.Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich was one of the folks who caught Dimon’s act and published a sharp retort, writing:“Kind of right about NATO? Trump wanted he U.S. to withdraw from NATO — and may get his way if he becomes president again. This would open Europe further to Putin’s aggression.“Kind of right on immigration? Even the conservative CATO Institute found that Trump reduced legal immigration but not illegal immigration. Trump refused to grant legal status to children of immigrants born in the United States or who grew up in the U.S. He banned Muslims from America, and when the Muslim ban was found to be unconstitutional, banned people from Muslim countries. He fueled the flames of nativism by describing poorer nations as ‘shit holes’ and has used Nazi terms to describe foreigners as ‘poisoning the blood’ of Americans. “Grew the economy quite well? In fact, under Trump the economy lost 2.9 million jobs. Even before the pandemic, job growth was slower than it has been under Biden. The unemployment rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3%. The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 40.5% from 2016. The number of Americans lacking health insurance rose by 3 million. The federal debt held by the public went up, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.” (Read Reich’s full column here.)What has caused Jamie Dimon to appear to be auditioning for the job of advance man for Donald Trump and his MAGA followers?Dimon is Chairman and CEO of the largest Wall Street mega bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase. Under Dimon’s tenure, the bank has the dubious distinction of having admitted to an unprecedented five felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice as well as being labeled the riskiest bank by its regulators.Now Dimon is in a pitched battle with federal banking regulators over their proposed new rules that would make JPMorgan Chase hold more capital against its riskiest trading positions. (This is, after all, the bank that secretly used deposits from its federally-insured Chase Bank to gamble in derivatives in London and lose $6.2 billion. The notorious scandal, known as the “London Whale,” occurred just two years after Congress had passed the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation in 2010 — legislation that was supposed to rein in the reckless activities of the Wall Street mega banks which had brought on the worst financial crash in the U.S. in 2008 since the Great Depression of the 1930s.) Running to the aid of Dimon in his battle to stop the proposed new capital rules by federal regulators – which would impact just the 37 banks (out of 4,600) in the U.S. that hold $100 billion or more in assets – is the MAGA-controlled House Financial Services Committee. Its website is so brazenly pro-Trump that yesterday it featured under a heading of “Latest on Twitter” a2020 Tweet heaping praise on Trump along with a photo of Trump in the Oval Office. (See screenshot to the right.)
Banks' margin pain likely to linger given Fed caution A resilient economy and continued strong employment gains could persuade the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer — stymieing hopes for cuts this spring and keeping pressure on banks' deposit costs and their collective ability to grow their loan portfolios.The one-two punch of slower lending and higher funding expenses crimped many banks' net interest margins and, by extension, fourth-quarter profits. Bankers said during earnings season in January and early this month that they anticipated more favorable conditions in the year ahead, assuming rates at least start to come down and deposit costs follow suit. Lower rates would also decrease borrowing costs for banks' customers, opening a door for stronger loan demand and increased income.The $61 billion-asset Valley National in New York, for example, said its fourth-quarter NIM fell 9 basis points from the prior quarter and plunged 75 basis points from a year earlier to 2.82%.Valley Chairman and CEO Ira Robbins said on the company's earnings call that "it's a really challenging" time. But, with rates poised to decline, "we do anticipate significant margin expansion as we get back to an appropriate environment."Last Wednesday, Fed policymakers left their benchmark rate untouched — as they have since last summer — after boosting it at the fastest pace in 40 years between March 2022 and July 2023, to a range of 5.25% and 5.5%. The Fed forced rates higher to curb inflation that soared above 9% in 2022 and reached the highest level of this century. The Fed proved largely successful: The inflation rate fell to 3.4% at the end of last year.Still, inflation continues to hover well above the Fed's preferred 2% rate. What's more, the strength of the job market and continued economic growth could reignite robust consumer spending and price spikes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned at a news conference."We've made a lot of progress on inflation," he said. "We just want to make sure that we do get the job done in a sustainable way."Ahead of the Fed meeting last week, futures markets showed a 50% chance of a March rate cut. That is when the Fed meets next. Powell did not rule it out, but said: "I don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting" to announce a rate reduction.Then, on Friday of last week, the Labor Department affirmed that the employment picture continues to brighten, following robust gains over the course of 2023. It said employers added 353,000 jobs in January, the biggest gain in a year. Additionally, December's gain was revised up to 333,000 from a prior reading of 216,000. The unemployment rate in January held steady at 3.7%, close to a four-decade low.The economy advanced at a 3.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, following growth in the third quarter of 4.9%, according to federal data. The January job gains keep the economy on a solid growth path, economists said."The January jobs report was impressively strong" and likely pushes until at least May the first Fed rate cut, said Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas' chief U.S. economist.In an interview aired Sunday night on CBS' "60 Minutes," Powell reiterated his press conference comments and cautioned that a March rate cut is not likely, though three reductions were still on the table for 2024.Continued bullish employment data, and any reversal in the inflation trajectory, could further delay rate reductions. That could continue to pressure regional and community banks' deposit expenses and, following hits to profitability in the second half of 2023, extend the bruising further into this year, analysts said.
BankThink: Don't rush to undo the 'tailoring' of bank liquidity requirements | American Banker - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10, 2023, ranks among the largest bank failures in U.S. history. Approaching the one-year anniversary of its collapse, agency officials are signalinga proposal to tighten bank liquidity requirements. The effort is spearheaded by Michael Barr, whom President Biden nominated as the Federal Reserve's vice chairman for supervision in 2022. While not yet public, the proposal will likely undo the tailoring of liquidity requirements under the prior administration. President Biden blamed tailoring, in part, for SVB's collapse. "Tailoring" refers to the regulatory reforms following the bipartisan Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 (S. 2155). In relevant part, Title IV of S. 2155 raised the threshold for mandatory application of "enhanced prudential standards" (i.e., the strictest capital, liquidity and stress testing requirements) from $50 billion to $250 billion. Regulators could still "apply any prudential standard" to banks above $100 billion, but application must be based on its capital structure, riskiness, complexity, financial activities, size and other risk-related factors. That is, S. 2155 ended the one-size-fits-all regulatory approach to midsize banks like SVB. As then-nominee Barr testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, "reasonable people can disagree" over the merits of S. 2155's tailoring of regulatory requirements for midsize banks. I saw this disagreement firsthand while serving as the committee's Republican staff economist, a role in which I vetted Mr. Barr during his confirmation process. While Mr. Barr noted that he "would have chosen a different balance" for tailoring, he acknowledged that S. 2155 had "garnered widespread support" in Congress and committed "to implementing the law as written." As a "key architect" of the Dodd-Frank Act, it is unsurprising for Vice Chairman Barr to revisit tailoring. Nonetheless, I am concerned that he will rush this consequential rulemaking ahead of the 2024 election. Unless this rule and others are finalized at least 60 legislative days prior to the seating of the new Congress, Republicans could sweep to power and overturn them under the Congressional Review Act. In 2017, Republicans did so fourteen times to Obama-era rules. While a rushed rulemaking may be politically expedient, rushing begets sloppiness. In turn, sloppy rulemaking raises the chance of substantive and procedural weaknesses that undermine the rule. I see three potential problems.First, Barr might argue that tighter liquidity requirements would have prevented the collapse of SVB. However, the claim that tailoring caused the collapse of SVB is not supported by the publicly available evidence. In a 2023 study from the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, I found that SVB would have needed a 200% liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) to withstand its deposit outflows, which is double the 100% LCR requirement imposed on the largest banks. I estimated that meeting a 100% LCR requirement would have reduced SVB's illiquidity risk by less than 1%.Rather than rely on a partisan narrative about SVB, Vice Chairman for Supervision Barr should ensure the rulemaking is justified by careful cost-benefit analysis. That would require showing that the economic benefits (e.g., reductions to illiquidity risk) outweigh the economic costs (e.g., lower economic growth). Unfortunately, the agencies' recent track record has been poor. Last year's proposal to tighten capital requirements did not include a cost-benefit analysis. While the banking agencies do not have an organic statutory requirement for cost-benefit analysis, Supreme Court precedent and executive branch policy recognize the importance of cost-benefit analysis for good rulemaking.Second, Barr might fail to promptly disclose the data required to evaluate the rulemaking. For example, if Vice Chairman Barr disputes my study's finding that liquidity tailoring did not cause the failure of SVB, then the agencies should disclose any data used for their own statistical analysis (e.g., nonpublic data on SVB's financials). While the Administrative Procedure Act requires a public comment period, the public cannot substantively comment on rules based on secret data. Here, the agencies' recent track record is also concerning. Last year's capital proposal was based on stale data. The Federal Reserve appears to have recognized the issue: During the comment period, it launched a new data collection effort. However, it did not make this data available before it ended the comment period, limiting the ability of the public to substantively comment.Third, Barr might fail to align the liquidity proposal with the requirements of S. 2155, as he committed to doing under oath. Again, recent experience raises concerns. The capital proposal seems to violate the plain language of the law by subjecting midsize banks to the same requirements as the largest banks without regard to their capital structure, riskiness, complexity, size, etc. Crucially, the APA authorizes courts to set aside rules "not in accordance with law." While agencies typically rely on the Chevron defense in such cases, Chevron may soon be overturned,
Yellen refuses to back banking agencies' Basel play — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pointedly refused to take a position on the bank agencies' Basel III endgame proposal, a striking move amid an intense lobbying campaignfrom the country's largest banks and bipartisan pushback to the rule. Yellen told several lawmakers, including House Financial Services Committee ranking member Rep. Maxine Waters, R-Calif., that she would leave the Basel questions to the bank regulators. The Basel III endgame proposal would raise capital standards for the largest banks, and has been the target of TV advertisements, many public letters from lawmakers and even veiled threats of a lawsuit as banks fight against the rulemaking. "I'm not going to take a position on the details with the rule," she said. Yellen's comments come as she testified in front of the House Financial Services Committee for the annual report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. She'll head to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday for a similar hearing. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle criticized the Basel proposal during the hearing. In response to Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., who expressed concerns about potential small business and consumer lending impacts of the proposal, Yellen said she believes it's important that the country has a strong banking system with adequate capital, but she qualified that by acknowledging the nature of the largest criticisms against the proposal. "It's important to ensure that credit availability is not significantly diminished," she said.
Regulators initiate regulatory lookback process - Federal banking regulators issued the first in a series of requests for comment on various aspects of the bank regulatory apparatus Tuesday, initiating a decennial review required under the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act of 1996.The initial request for comment will focus on three of 12 categories of regulation: Applications and Reporting, Powers and Activities and International Operations. The agencies will accept public comment on ways those areas of regulation could be improved for 90 days following their publication in the Federal Register. The agencies will also conduct public outreach events as part of the EGRPRA process, the Federal Reserve said in a release."Over the next two years, the agencies will request comment on the regulations in the remaining categories, asking the public to identify regulations they believe are outdated, unnecessary, or unduly burdensome," the agency said. "The agencies also plan to hold outreach meetings where interested parties may comment on applicable regulatory requirements directly to the agencies."Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman, a Trump appointee and frequent critic of some of the Fed's more recent regulatory proposals — including the Basel III endgame capital proposal and recently finalized Community Reinvestment Act implementation rules — said she hopes to hear from community banks in particular about how Fed rules impact small institutions. "It is my expectation that this review … will provide a meaningful process for stakeholders and the public to engage with the banking agencies in the identification of regulations that are no longer necessary or are overly burdensome," Bowman said. "As a part of the comment solicitation process, I would also appreciate hearing from the public, particularly from community banks, about the aggregate burden that has been imposed since the prior EGRPRA report 10 years ago."
In unusual move, law professor petitions bank regulators for rulemaking — A law professor recently detailed with the Department of Justice is petitioning two bank regulators to mandate that at least some of a large bank's directors be unaffiliated with the bank's holding company. While it's not unheard of for bank groups or companies to ask regulators to pursue rulemakings, it's rarer still for individual petitioners to do so. "It's time for public interest advocates to make use of this tool, as the banking lobby has been doing for many years," said Jeremy Kress, who submitted his petition urging bank regulators to adopt an unaffiliated bank standard to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Kress, a co-faculty director of the University of Michigan's Center on Finance, Law & Policy recently worked with the Department of Justice advising on bank merger policy. The regulators will have to consider the petition and provide a response to it, although there is no set time frame for them to complete their consideration. The petition asks that the OCC and the Fed pursue a similar rule to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s controversial corporate governance proposal, which bank groups have criticized as fundamentally changing the way boards at midsize and big banks conduct business. Kress also submitted a comment letter in favor of the FDIC rulemaking. The Fed and the OCC, Kress said in the petition, should require large banks to appoint at least some directors who are unaffiliated with their holding companies. The overlap between bank directors and the banks' holding companies leads to problematic conflicts of interest, Kress said. He made similar arguments in a May law article review. "The vast majority of large-bank directors also serve as board members of their parent holding companies," he said. "These dual directors are poorly situated to exercise the independent judgment necessary to protect a bank from exploitation by its nonbank affiliates."
Fed SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Tighter Standards, Weaker Demand for almost All Loan Types -- From the Federal Reserve: The January 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices -- The January 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the fourth quarter of 2023. Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents, on balance, reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the fourth quarter. Furthermore, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories. For loans to households, banks, on balance, reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government residential mortgages and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible residential mortgages, for which standards remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Moreover, for credit card, auto, and other consumer loans, standards reportedly tightened, and demand weakened on balance. While banks, on balance, reported having tightened lending standards further for most loan categories in the fourth quarter, lower net shares of banks reported tightening lending standards than in the third quarter across all loan categories. The January SLOOS also included a set of special questions inquiring about banks’ expectations for changes in lending standards, borrower demand, and loan performance over 2024. Banks, on balance, reported expecting lending standards to remain basically unchanged for C&I and RRE loans, but to tighten further for CRE, credit card, and auto loans. In addition, banks reported expecting loan demand to strengthen across all loan categories, and loan quality to deteriorate across most loan types. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. The upper graphs are for standards and shows standards have tightened. The lower graph is for demand and shows that demand has declined. The left graphs are from 1990 to 2014. The right graphs are from 2015 to Q4 2023.
Banks Report Tighter Standards, Weaker Loan Demand But Some Improvement As Financial Conditions Ease --The last time we looked at the senior loan officer survey in November, we found "tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter" in addition to tighter standards and less demand for most other loan categories. So fast forward to today when the latest closely watched SLOOS report for Q1 was published, and which found that, once again banks "reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the fourth quarter. Furthermore, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories."For loans to households, banks "reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government residential mortgages and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible residential mortgages, for which standards remained basically unchanged." Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories.In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Moreover, for credit card, auto, and other consumer loans, standards reportedly tightened, and demand weakened on balance.The silver lining is that while banks reported having tightened lending standards further for most loan categories in Q4, "lower net shares of banks reported tightening lending standards than in Q3 across all loan categories." And for those who bother to look at the actual numbers, only 14.5% of respondents reported tightening standards for large/medium sizes commercial loans, the lest since Q3 2022. In other words, just like inflation where prices are still going up but not at the previous torrid pace, so here standard continue to tighten, but ever so slower. Same thing with demand: while demand remained negative for all loan types, the rate of contraction is moderating a bit, which while a good sign, is a far cry from actually growing loan demand which we haven't seen in over a year... because 4% GDP (according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow)... And yes, for those wondering, loan tightness is almost entirely a function of financial conditions: as the next chart shows, financial conditions have become far less tight in the past two quarter, tracking the sharp easing in financial conditions. The January SLOOS also included a set of special questions inquiring about banks’ expectations for changes in lending standards, borrower demand, and loan performance over 2024. Banks, on balance, reported expecting lending standards to remain basically unchanged for C&I and RRE loans, but to tighten further for CRE, credit card, and auto loans. In addition, banks reported expecting loan demand to strengthen across all loan categories, and loan quality to deteriorate across most loan types. In other words, banks anticipate further tightening lending standards across most categories, even as consumer fight with each other for what little loan availability exists (all of this, of course, is moot once the next round of the regional bank crisis arrive in March when the Fed's BTFP program expires, and when most lending once again grinds to a halt).
'Banking-as-a-service banks: 'There is a reckoning' -The quickening waves of consent orders slamming into financial institutions engaged in banking-as-a-service is spurring change among banks who want to get it right."The number one takeaway for banks has to be that banking-as-a-service is not the silver bullet many of them thought it would be for deposit gathering," said Jason Henrichs, founder and CEO of community bank consortium Alloy Labs Alliance. "There is a reckoning that it will involve more investment."Banks are ultimately responsible for the deposit, lending and credit activity their partnersengage in. There are also growing concerns about the reliability of third parties that connect banks to fintechs and their promises to offload some of the compliance burden. At the same time, crackdowns on banks partaking in BaaS are on the rise. Financial institutions including Blue Ridge Bankshares, Cross River Bank, Choice Financial Group and First Fed Bankhave been forced by regulators including the Office of the Comptroller of Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to heighten oversight of their fintech partners, strengthen compliance and more — some as recently as January.The challenge for the institutions engaging in banking-as-a-service, or BaaS, "is that most regulation and guidance for BaaS is coming via enforcement instead of clear, consistent communication and formal guidance from regulators," said Phil Goldfeder, CEO of the American Fintech Council, which counts BaaS-oriented banks among its members.To get it right, banks must rethink their risk and compliance practices as they relate to BaaS, from automated monitoring to being selective about which tasks they delegate to third parties, if any.
Subprime lender, struggling with debts, gets reprieve from creditors -The high-cost lender CURO Group Holdings, whose loans to subprime consumers have drawn regulatory scrutiny, got a lifeline from its own creditors this week after missing an interest payment. The company has lost money the last two years as it shifts away from small payday loans — in favor of larger installment loans with relatively high interest rates that do not inoculate it from regulatory criticism. In the past few years, it has brought in a new CEO, reworked its board, sold its legacy payday loan business and bought three high-cost consumer lenders in the United States and Canada. But the strategy shift hasn't paid off thus far, and last week the company failed to make an interest payment to bondholders. On Thursday, CURO Group said it reached an agreement with bondholders that gives it a grace period of 30 days for the interest payment default. It also said that negotiations on a broader restructuring are continuing. "The company and its advisors continue to be engaged in discussions with certain of its key lenders and other stakeholders regarding a potential comprehensive financial restructuring to strengthen the company's balance sheet and financial position," CURO Group said in a securities filing.
CFPB contract negotiations come at uncertain time for agency funding - The union representing employees of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is locked in contentious negotiations with senior management over a new pay contract, but the outcome of those negotiations could depend on another interested party: congressional appropriators. The CFPB's contract with Chapter 335 of the National Treasury Employees Union expired on Dec. 31. The CFPB and union said the negotiations are ongoing to determine raises over three years for rank-and-file employees. Of the CFPB's roughly 1,700 employees, about 1,000 are members of the local NTEU. Union officials said they believe the bureau's latest proposal does not meet the CFPB's obligations under the Dodd-Frank Act to offer pay and benefits comparable to Federal Reserve Board employees. The local union wants the CFPB to agree to pay increases of 6% to 7% because of high inflation and to put the bureau on par with employees of other federal financial regulators. "Dodd Frank requires bureau compensation to be comparable to the other federal financial regulators," said Solange Hilfinger-Pardo, a CFPB attorney and chair of the NTEU 335 bargaining committee. "If you look at the raises at many of our sibling agencies in 2023 and 2024, they are above where we are. Our raises need to be comparable in 2024 to make sure we're not falling behind." But those demands come as the very mechanism by which the CFPB pays its employees is under scrutiny by the Supreme Court, whose decision could invite greater congressional scrutiny — and likely a tighter budget. The court heard oral arguments in October in a case challenging whether the CFPB, which was created after the 2008 financial crisis, is unconstitutionally funded via allocations from the Federal Reserve. That ruling, expected by early summer, may not eliminate the CFPB altogether, but could invalidate its structure and ask Congress to choose a new funding mechanism. Brian Johnson, managing director at Patomak Global Partners and a former deputy director at the CFPB, said that taxpayers should have a seat at the bargaining table during union contract negotiations. He said more attention needs to be paid to the compounding effect of the annual pay raises. "Only Congress can ensure agency spending discipline through regular annual appropriations," Johnson said. "CFPB employees are doing very well compared to the average U.S. worker and now it's even higher because it jumped up because of the pay reset, which was a very generous benefits package.
BankThink: The CFPB should stick to its original position on earned wage access | American Banker --As we enter into an election year, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will be taking up a range of important issues. This includes the long-awaited update on its guidance on earned wage access products, a new technology that enables workers to access their wages as they earn them, without having to wait for payday.In a recent letter to the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, the bureau put forward a concerning stance that indicated it may reverse its previous position and determine that EWA's optional, nominal fees are subject to the Truth in Lending Act. If the bureau pursues this path, it will certainly be on shaky legal ground. And, it would severely adversely impact working families' access to a vital financial product without actually creating meaningful consumer protections.While some policymakers have called for APR disclosures, it is not a meaningful protection for consumers for this product. Most EWA providers do not charge for EWA itself. Voluntary, nominal, flat fees for expediting payment delivery through private payment rails are not akin to charging interest, and would be far more confusing for a consumer to understand if calculated as an APR — much the same way it wouldn't make sense to convert an ATM fee into an interest rate compounded annually. Further, there are also several exemptions to TILA such that, even if EWA was subject to Regulation Z, most providers would not have to disclose an APR because the nominal fee is so low. Policymakers should look to more meaningful protections, like mandatory free options, prohibition on debt collection and credit reporting and clear disclosures that are aligned with how the product operates.New research from the Financial Health Network shows that workers value EWA as an alternative to other more expensive options. The study participants widely noted EWA was preferable to taking out a payday loan, incurring late fees and overdrafts and borrowing money from friends and family. Nearly all participants in the study did not view EWA as the same or akin to loans, as they were accessing only verified wages they had already earned. The study also found that workers had positive experiences with EWA and reported they plan to continue using EWA when in times of need.It is important to understand that EWA plays a vital role in helping consumers cost-effectively meet short-term liquidity crunches, a constant challenge that real-time payment solutions such as RTP and FedNow can never sufficiently meet. Real-time payment can only expedite the wage to a consumer's account by a mere two days and is rigidly tied to the payday. Clearly consumers can face such challenges at any point during a pay period, rendering real-time payment far less effective than many have hoped.The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Tuesday issued the first in a series of requests for comment on all aspects of the regulatory apparatus as part of a required decennial review. Were the CFPB to revise or reverse its guidance as it hinted at in its letter to the DFPI, this would lead to highly detrimental results for the consumers the CFPB seeks to protect. Notably, subjecting EWA to TILA does not provide any meaningful protections and it is a solution in search of a problem. It would only cause adverse outcomes for consumers, without creating any consumer protections — notably, not even an APR disclosure. In many states, consumers would have to take on debt to access their wages. Many would be ineligible to access EWA due to lack of creditworthiness. Consumers would face new costs, like origination fees and interest, that they do not pay now. And, it's likely that EWA would no longer be available as an alternative to consumers in many states that allow hundreds of dollars in interest on payday loans.
NCUA's Harper: Large credit unions will report overdraft data — National Credit Union Administration Chairman Todd Harper said Tuesday in an interview at the Brookings Institute his agency will soon require credit unions with above $1 billion in assets to report data on both overdraft and nonsufficient funds fees separately to the NCUA.The NCUA director noted that understanding the scope of such fees is an important first step to ensuring equity at credit unions, as such fees tend to fall disproportionately on lower income people."This is going to be different from banks," he noted. "We're gonna require separately reporting of overdraft fees and nonsufficient fund fees, so you'll have greater granularity in order to track."The top federal credit union regulator noted that such a requirement would apply to over 400 credit unions, which hold roughly 90% of the total assets held by credit unions.While there has been heightened scrutiny about overdraft and nonsufficient funds fees in the banking industry, credit unions have also faced increasing scrutiny over so-called 'junk fees' for some time. The increasingly online bank and credit union ecosystem means customers can more easily change banking relationships, which has in turn created more pressure among banks and credit unions to offer more competitive fee structures. Harper's remarks indicate credit union regulators are also considering a regulatory approach to curbing such fees.
US Office CRE Mess Is Spread Far and Wide across Investors & Banks Globally. US Banks Eat only a Portion of the Losses by Wolf Richter What’s amazing about the mess of the office sector of commercial real estate (CRE) is just how far and wide these mega-losses – by some estimates, they may ultimately amount to $1 trillion, or whatever – are spread in diced and sliced form globally. Which is a good thing for US banks.Some US banks have started to reveal the damage in bits and pieces and warn about office CRE loans. But foreign banks are also up to their ears in this stuff – Canadian banks, Japanese banks, European banks…. And some warnings have emerged. But a big portion of the office CRE loans are held by investors, not banks, and they have gotten the short end of the stick.We have discussed this phenomenon here for a year – how thebiggest office CRE losses haven’t hit the US banks as much, but have hit investors in Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) which are held in big baskets of relatively small slices by institutional investors, such as bond funds, pension funds, insurance companies not just in the US but around the world.And losses have hit publicly traded and private property REITs and mortgage REITs whose investors span the globe; they’ve hit PE firms and hedge funds and other nonbank entities whose investors span the globe – to the point that we espoused the theory that US banks had been able to sell their riskiest worst office property debt, back during the “office shortage” when times were good and money was free, by securitizing it or selling it outright to institutional investors around the globe.The delinquency rate of office mortgages that had been securitized into CMBS spiked to 6.3% by loan balance in January, having more than tripled year-over-year (up from a delinquency rate of 1.9% in January 2023), according to Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS. This is a ferocious deterioration:The office CRE losses are split among lenders and landlords. Landlords lose their equity in the property – even giant landlords such as private equity firm Blackstone and private equity firm Brookfield have walked away from office properties.It’s the older office towers that are emptying out, or that have emptied out, that take the biggest beating. The latest and greatest office towers benefit from a flight to quality, as companies are abandoning older towers.Lenders have lost between a substantial portion to nearly all or all of their loan value when they sell the office tower they’d seized via foreclosure or deed-in-lieu-of-foreclosure.
Yellen expects bank 'stress' due to commercial real estate losses — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that a combination of higher vacancy and interest rates in commercial real estate will hit the banking sector, but that she doesn't expect it to be a systemic risk. Yellen's comments come amid a turbulent week for New York Community Bancorp as itsrapidly-installed new leadership tried to quell fears about its exposure to the commercial real estate sector and rapid selloff of sharess. Yellen, at testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee, didn't directly comment on the New York Community situation, but said that vacancy rates have significantly increased for office buildings in metropolitan areas. That's combined with substantially higher interest rates and falling valuations, she said. "So it's obvious that there's going to be stress and losses that are associated with this," she said. "The banking supervisors are working with their banks to manage this risk and identify it. I believe this will not end up — I hope — being a systemic risk to the banking system." Yellen said that the largest banks' exposure is quite low, but "there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments." The Financial Stability Oversight Council, which Yellen as Treasury Secretary chairs, is working with bank supervisors to understand exposures, she said. "There are some institutions that will face stresses from commercial real estate that we know was significantly impacted, particularly office buildings by the pandemic," Yellen said. "Interest rates are higher, loans will need to be refinanced in an environment with higher interest charges, lower valuations and rising vacancy rates, so for some banks this will be a concern. But on balance, I think the system is well capitalized." Only Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., brought up the trouble with New York Community, which she did as part of a larger point on bank capital. Warren said that banking groups, which have pushed back intensely against the Basel III endgame rulemaking, are claiming that higher capital costs will result in higher prices for consumers. "Less than a year after three billionaire banks collapsed, another one, New York Community Bank, is now teetering," Warren said. "So we're just trying to make sure that these giant banks don't go broke and come back to the American taxpayer like they have done before to get a bailout."
Banking groups sue regulators to block CRA revamp -— A cohort of trade groups representing the financial industry filed a lawsuit Monday in the Northern District of Texas attempting to stop recently finalized reforms to implementing regulations for the Community Reinvestment Act.The suit — filed by the Independent Community Bankers of America, American Bankers Association, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Texas Bankers Association and Independent Bankers Association of Texas, among others — argues that the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency arbitrarily exceeded their statutory authority when they finalized their amendments to the CRA rules in October. The rule is the first such reform to the implementation rules of the 1977 anti-redlining law since the 1990s. The suit also calls on the court to stay the rules pending the outcome of the suit."The Final Rules work a wholesale and unlawful change to a statutory and regulatory regime that, for nearly five decades, has successfully encouraged lending in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods throughout the United States," the complaint argues. "These are substantial and non-compensable compliance costs, which will by their very nature force businesses to immediately forgo other pressing business priorities."The plaintiffs argue that the final rules unnecessarily heighten the complexity and compliance burden of the CRA, ultimately undermining its very intent — to compel banks to serve the needs of the lower-income communities they serve. One major industry qualm deals with the agencies' decision to expand assessment areas beyond a bank's deposit-taking footprint. Rather than assess lending only in areas banks have branches, the amended rule requires banks to lend to lower-income communities in areas where they have a concentration of mortgage and small-business loans. Regulators say the updated assessment areas are meant to help calibrate the CRA so it accurately captures community needs at a time when online banking has drastically changed the geographical distribution of bank customer bases. The industry claims this diverges from Congressional intent.
For banks, now is a good time to sue your regulator over CRA -- — Banking groups made good on murmurs of a lawsuit over recently finalized anti-redlining reforms Monday, a move that represents a combination of election year politics, a judiciary more skeptical of federal regulation and an increasingly pugilistic banking industry. The suit, brought by the Independent Community Bankers of America, American Bankers Association and other banking trade groups, challenges the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over an overhaul of implementing regulations for the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act — reforms that have been in the works for years under two administrations. The suit argues, among other things, that the final rule goes beyond the scope of the statute and violates the Administrative Procedure Act.Taking such a step historically has been uncommon for the banking industry, and especially rare when it comes to anti-discrimination measures. Consumer advocates like Jesse Van Tol, CEO and president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition — a group that has long advocated for revised CRA rules — said the banking industry's opposition to revitalizing a civil rights law undercuts its own ostensibleconcern over the impacts proposed capital hikes could have on communities of color. "Out of one side of their mouth they say higher capital requirements will hurt people of color and low-income people, but then out of the other they attack the nation's preeminent law requiring them to lend to those same people," Van Tol contended. "Nobody should believe them when they say they care about lending to working-class people and people of color."The CRA was a law passed in response to discriminatory lending patterns known as redlining. The law establishes that banks have an affirmative obligation to meet the credit needs of all their customers, including low- and moderate-income customers in the communities they serve. In light of this, banks are carefully phrasing their pushback and challenging the procedure rather than the intent of the rule. Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, noted in an email that the trade groups are well aware of the hairy public-relations issues involved with suing to prevent CRA reforms. "I'm sure the bank groups took the optics and politics into account before suing — [they] are aware that it's tricky," Katz remarked. "That's probably why they say at the top that they support and appreciate the goals of the CRA."What is more, in a contentious election year, a lawsuit could delay the rule long enough for a change in administration, according to Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst at TD Cowen. "The banks are smart if they are using litigation to delay implementation beyond the election," Seiberg wrote in an exchange. "It preserves the ability to restart the process if a Republican wins the White House."
Latest DOJ redlining settlement offers warning about M&A - A redlining settlement announced Monday by federal and North Carolina authorities sends a warning to banks about the risk that dealmaking will bring scrutiny of lending practices within a seller's old footprint.First National Bank of Pennsylvania agreed to the settlement in order to resolve allegations about its mortgage operations in certain parts of North Carolina. The regional bank, a unit of Pittsburgh-based FNB Corp., entered the Charlotte and Winston-Salem markets in 2017 by purchasing Yadkin Financial. Between 2017 and 2021, First National avoided making mortgage loans in heavily Black and Hispanic parts of the Charlotte and Winston-Salem areas, in contrast with its practices in majority-white neighborhoods, according to the U.S. Department of Justice and North Carolina authorities. "We are prepared to hold institutions accountable when they engage in discriminatory conduct," Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke, who heads the DOJ's civil rights division, said Monday during a call with reporters. "Banks should also be on notice that they will be held accountable for redlining activity even when conducted by entities that they have acquired or merged with."Clarke also drew attention to the role that redlining allegations can play in the bank merger review process. That process is conducted by bank regulators, not the DOJ."I think that a small takeaway from our announcement today is that institutions should know that that bank merger review process is robust and active and aggressive, and includes an analysis of potentially unlawful redlining," Clarke said.
CFPB settles foreclosure scam case with $12M settlement -One of several decade-long fraud cases between regulators and scammers who targeted distressed mortgage borrowers came to an end this week with a $12 million settlement, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced.The agreement resolves the dispute with Consumer First Legal Group and four of its attorneys, Thomas G. Macey, Jeffrey J. Aleman, Jason Searns and Harold E. Stafford, who were accused of having charged "millions of dollars in illegal advance fees to financially-distressed homeowners for legal representation the defendants promised but did not provide."In its initial complaint filed in 2014, the agency said the defendants had deceived clients in danger of foreclosure when providing mortgage-relief services, in part by collecting loan modification payments before they had come to agreements with lenders. The perpetrators also instructed borrowers to not contact their mortgage companies and failed to issue required disclosures, the CFPB stated. The allegations all violated the regulation previously known as the mortgage assistance relief services rule. Following an order against Consumer First Legal and its attorneys, a U.S. district court imposed a fine of nearly $60 million in restitution and civil money penalties in 2019. Three of the lawyers were also prohibited from conducting future business involving foreclosure or mortgage relief, while Stafford was given a five-year ban.That judgment came after The Mortgage Law Group, a bankrupt firm Macey, Aleman and Searns previously operated, had already been found guilty in the scam.An appeal by defendants led to an affirmation of the original court's rulings but reduced the amount of penalties to just under $30 million and shortened the length of some of the attorneys' bans to eight years in 2022. A subsequent appeal was filed, along with a cross-appeal from the CFPB.In this week's resolution, the CFPB, Consumer First Legal and its attorneys agreed to dismiss their appeals. The $12 million settlement consists of $10.9 million in consumer redress and a $1.1 million penalty paid into the CFPB's victims relief fund.The eight-year bans on Macey, Aleman and Searns, as well as the five-year term against Stafford remain.The CFPB filed the original lawsuit in 2014 as part of a coordinated effort between several regulators targeting operators of foreclosure relief scams. The resolved case was one of three from the bureau, while the Federal Trade Commission lodged six suits. Meanwhile, attorneys representing 15 different states took 32 actions against fraudsters.In January, the FTC began a claims process for fraud victims in one of its 2014 cases. Over 2,500clients of Lanier Law or its associated businesses are eligible to collect from the proceeds of a 2016 ruling against the defendants. In the order, one of the scam perpetrators, Michael Lanier, was also disbarred. In a similar FTC case separate from the 2014 joint effort, the commission last month said homeowners scammed by the firm Consumer Defense would be receiving more than a cumulative $1.2 million after courts determined it had violated mortgage assistance relief services policies. Consumer Defense had promised its clients loan modifications upon payments of monthly fees, but in some cases, the company never contacted the lenders.
Ex-top prosecutor for Baltimore convicted on mortgage fraud count -A federal jury on Tuesday convicted Marilyn Mosby, the former top prosecutor in Baltimore, on one count of mortgage fraud and was acquitted on another charge related to the sale of two luxury vacation homes in Florida.Authorities alleged that Mosby made false statements to mortgage lenders when purchasing the houses in Kissimmee, Fla., just outside of Walt Disney World, and Long Boat Key, Fla., according to multiple reports.Mosby, who served two terms as state’s attorney for Baltimore, was convicted in November on charges that she lied about the finances of a side business and accessed funds from the CARES Act during the COVID-19 pandemic and the city’s retirement plan to use it for the homes. She was convicted of two counts of perjury, The Associated Press reported.She is appealing the perjury convictions and faces potential prison time when she is sentenced sometime this year, the Washington Post reported.Prosecutors said Mosby failed to disclose that she had unpaid federal taxes, and the IRS placed a $45,000 lien against her properties. She testified that she was aware of the unpaid taxes when she submitted her first loan application in July 2020 but said she was misled by her husband.The former lawyer said she did not read all the documents when she closed on the Kissimmee home in September 2020, but what Mosby tried to pass off as inexperience, prosecutors said was “willful blindness,” the Post reported.During her tenure as the top attorney in the state, Mosby received national attention for her progressive policies. She prosecuted Baltimore police officers after a Black man, Freddie Gray, died in police custody in 2015. None of the officers were convicted, and Gray’s death led to protests in the city, the AP reported. Mosby faces up to 30 years in prison for the Tuesday conviction, local reporters posted online.
Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2023 -- The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.88 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.The delinquency rate was up 26 basis points from the third quarter of 2023 but down 8 basis points from one year ago. The historical average for the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate from 1979 through 2023 is 5.25 percent. Of particular note, FHA delinquencies were up 131 basis points.The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter remained unchanged at 0.14 percent. “Mortgage delinquencies increased across all product types for the second consecutive quarter,” “While the overall delinquency rate is still very low compared to the historical average, the pace of new loans entering delinquency picked up and some loans moved into later stages of delinquency. The resumption of student loan payments, robust personal spending, and rising balances on credit cards and other forms of consumer debt, paired with declining savings rates, are likely behind some borrowers falling behind at the end of 2023.” , “The labor market is still quite resilient with the unemployment rate – strongly correlated with mortgage performance – remaining at 3.7 percent in January. Any weakening in employment conditions would likely lead to more borrowers falling behind on their payments in the coming quarters.” Note that the largest increase in delinquencies has been for FHA loans.
- • Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate increased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate increased 7 basis points to 2.10 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate increased 11 basis points to 0.73 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket increased 7 basis points to 1.05 percent.
- • By loan type, the total delinquency rate for conventional loans increased 11 basis points to 2.61 percent over the previous quarter. The FHA delinquency rate increased 131 basis points to 10.81 percent, the highest level since the third quarter of 2021. The VA delinquency rate increased by 31 basis points to 4.07 percent.
- • On a year-over-year basis, total mortgage delinquencies decreased for all loans outstanding. The delinquency rate decreased by 17 basis points for conventional loans, increased 20 basis points for FHA loans and decreased 9 basis points for VA loans from the previous year.
- • The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.47 percent, down 2 basis points from the third quarter of 2023 and 10 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since fourth quarter of 2021.
- • The non-seasonally adjusted seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 1.52 percent, matching the lowest level since 1984. It remained unchanged from last quarter and decreased by 37 basis points from last year. Compared to a year ago, the seriously delinquent rate decreased by 26 basis points for conventional loans, decreased 98 basis points for FHA loans and decreased 42 basis points for VA loans.
- • The five states with the largest quarterly increases in their overall delinquency rate were: Louisiana (77 basis points), West Virginia (53 basis points), Illinois (44 basis points), Texas (44 basis points), and New Mexico (42 basis points).
- • For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage.
The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased in Q4. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.57 percent in Q4 2022 to 0.47 percent in Q4 2023 (red), even with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, and remain historically low. The primary concern is the increase in 30- and 60-day delinquencies (blue), although still historically low. I don’t think this increase is much of a concern.
ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Positive Signs in Housing, Mortgage Markets" Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Positive Signs in Housing, Mortgage Markets" Brief excerpt: There have been very few low credit score mortgage originations. During the housing bubble, many of the low credit score loans were made through the private-labeled securities market.
• In the absence of any meaningful private-labeled securities market, the rise in FHA delinquencies is worth watching, as FHA and VA loans can be early indicators of broader mortgage performance trends
• While low credit score lending hit a record low, by count, in 2023, 90% below the years leading up to the great financial crisis, FHA and VA products have accounted for roughly 70% of sub-660 credit score lending for most of the past decade
• This is a stark contrast from the 2004-2006 era when FHA and VA lending played a minimal role (<10%) in lower credit score lending, which then was dominated by loans backed by private-labeled securities and held in portfolio
• Given the low volume of sub-660 credit score lending and that overall delinquencies remain historically low, FHA and VA delinquencies are not currently a cause for significant broad based market concern, but are worth keeping a close eye on for those invested in GNMA securities as well as non-banks that participate more heavily in FHA and VA lending
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 2, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 1 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates have stayed close to where they started the year, despite swings in Treasury yields because of slowing inflation offset by stronger than expected readings on the job market. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.8 percent, a slight increase from last week,” “Rates at these levels have not prompted much of a reaction in the refinance market, as most homeowners have mortgages with much lower rates. However, purchase activity has been strong to start 2024 compared to the final quarter of 2023. However, activity is still weaker than a year ago because of low housing supply.”The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.80 percent from 6.78 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loansThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down19% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still close to the lowest levels during the housing bust.The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent increases, activity is barely off the bottom.
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 5.5% Year-over-year in December - The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: Job Growth Continues to Drive Annual Home Price Gains in December, CoreLogic Reports: Annual U.S. home price growth was 5.5% in December 2023, the highest rate of appreciation recorded since January 2023.
• Year-over-year U.S. home prices have recorded annual gains since early 2012.
• In 2023, the average CoreLogic Home Price Index gain was 3.9%, down from 14.5% in 2022 but the same as the annual average in 2019.
• Northeastern states continued to lead the U.S. for annual price gains, with Rhode Island on top at 13.3%.
• Among large metro areas, Miami returned to the No 1. spot for year-over-year home price increases in December, posting a gain of almost 11%.
“Last winter’s mortgage rate surge impacted seasonal home price changes in many markets and suggests that annual gains may have reached the cycle peak and will level off in the coming months,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “But while appreciation is projected to slow, home prices will continue to extend to new highs entering the typically busy spring homebuying season. Also, while the recent dip in mortgage rates help improve some affordability challenges, additional rate declines may not arrive until the second half of 2024.” “The 2024 homebuying season should enjoy a boost because of pent-up demand, as well as a robust job market and wage growth,” Hepp continued. “Geographic patterns in price gains continued to favor housing markets in the Northeast and the South, especially those that remain more affordable and have lagged in home price increases over the past couple of years.”
Housing February 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 8.7% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.2% week-over-week. I suspect inventory will bottom in February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of February 2nd, inventory was at 497 thousand (7-day average), compared to 503 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up 95% from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 8.7% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 7.9%), and down 39.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 39.2%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 12.2% YoY; New Listings up 12.8% YoY -- Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 3rd, 2024 Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 12.2% above year ago levels.For a 13th consecutive week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers have more homes to choose from that aren’t already in the process of being sold. The added inventory has certainly improved conditions from this time one year ago, but overall inventory is still low. For the month as a whole, January inventory is down nearly 40% below 2017 to 2019 levels. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 12.8% from one year ago.Newly listed homes were above last year’s levels for the 15th week in a row. It was the biggest jump in nearly three years, which could further contribute to a recovery in active listings meaning more options for home shoppers. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 13th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. Inventory is still historically very low. New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now - although new listings remain well below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 15th consecutive week.Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY --Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.This graph shows CME random length framing futures through last August (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). LBR is currently at $551.00 per 1000 board feet, up 5.7% from $521.5 a year ago.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.We didn't see a significant runup in prices last Spring due to the housing slowdown, and we aren't seeing much of a pickup in early 2024.
NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased - From the NY Fed: Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Continue Rising; Notably Among Younger Borrowers The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $212 billion (1.2%) in the fourth quarter of 2023, to The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the composition of auto loan balances and performance by age and income. The Quarterly Report also includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.“Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.”Mortgage balances rose by $112 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $12.25 trillion at the end of December. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) increased by $11 billion, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase after Q1 2022, and now stand at $360 billion. Credit card balances increased by $50 billion to $1.13 trillion. Auto loan balances rose by $12 billion, continuing the upward trajectory seen since 2020, and now stand at $1.61 trillion.Mortgage originations continued at a similar pace as seen in the previous two quarters, and now stand at $394 billion. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $74 billion, representing a 1.6% increase from the previous quarter. Limits on HELOC grew by $24 billion and have grown by 10% over the past two years, after 10 years of observed declines.Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q4 2023, with 3.1% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of December. Delinquency transition rates increased for all debt types, except for student loans. Annualized, approximately 8.5% of credit card balances and 7.7% of auto loans transitioned into delinquency. Delinquency transition rates for mortgages increased by 0.2 percentage points yet remain low by historic standards. Serious credit card delinquencies increased across all age groups, notably with younger borrowers surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Here are three graphs from the report:The first graph shows household debt increased in Q4. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.From the NY Fed:Aggregate household debt balances increased by $212 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 1.2% rise from 2023Q3. Balances now stand at $17.50 trillion and have increased by $3.4 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The overall delinquency rate increased in Q4. From the NY Fed: Aggregate delinquency rates increased in the fourth quarter of 2023. As of December, 3.1% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, up by 0.1 percentage point from the third quarter. Still, overall delinquency rates remain 1.6 percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019.Delinquency transition rates increased for all product types, except for student loans. Annualized, approximately 8.5% of credit card balances and 7.7% of auto loan balances transitioned into delinquency. Early delinquency transition rates for mortgages increased by 0.2 percentage point yet remain low by historic standards.About 114,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2023Q4, slightly less than in the previous quarter. Approximately 4.7% of consumers have a 3rd party collection account on their credit report The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score. From the NY Fed: Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, continued at the same pace observed in the previous two quarters, at $394 billion in 2023Q4, and well below the trillion-dollar-plus quarterly origination volumes observed between 2020Q2 and 2021Q4. ... Limits on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) grew by $24 billion, and have grown by 10% over the past two years after ten years of decreases There is much more in the report.
Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgage Balances, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures | Wolf Street By Wolf Richter - Mortgage balances outstanding ticked up by 0.9% in Q4 from Q3, to a record of $12.3 trillion. Year-over-year, the increase was only 2.8%, according to data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report. This small increase in mortgage balances is the result of a strange mix: Purchases of existing homes have plunged by one-third, and mortgage origination volume has collapsed, with existing home prices still sky high; but new house sales have held up, as prices have dropped 17%. And homeowners with these infamous 3% mortgages are not selling, and they’re not buying, and so they’re not paying off their 3% mortgages, and they’re not getting bigger new mortgages.HELOC balances jumped by 3.2% in Q4 from Q3, by 7.1% year-over-year, the 7th consecutive quarter of increases, and by 13% from two years ago. So HELOCs (home equity line of credit) at $360 billion, are still historically low, but the high mortgage rates have changed the trend. HELOCs – a way for homeowners to extract cash from their home equity – are now powered by the much higher mortgage rates that make cash-out refis very unattractive because homeowners would swap a 3% rate for a 7% rate on the entire amount of the mortgage. And refi volume has collapsed. With a HELOC, they can extract cash and pay only 7% on the much smaller HELOC amount while continuing to pay 3% on the much larger mortgage. So HELOCs are coming back. In dollar terms, HELOC balances increased by $24 billion in 2023, and most of this $24 billion was earmarked for consumption, from home improvements to vacations. They represent another, if light, tailwind for our tireless drunken sailors. Homes are lot more expensive today than they were 20 years ago, but the effective interest rates on mortgages outstanding are a lot lower than they were, and consumers make a lot more money too, they’ve gotten the biggest pay increases in 40 years, even as mortgage debt barely increased, and there are a lot of renters, and they don’t have any mortgage debts, including the many “renters of choice,” who have relatively high incomes and live in higher-end rentals. So in aggregate, the entire $12.3 trillion in mortgage debt as a percent of total disposable income is roughly where it had been for years, and even in 2003. Disposable income is income from all sources except capital gains, minus taxes and social insurance payments. This is the cash that consumers have left to spend on housing, food, cars, debt payments, etc. Delinquencies aren’t even normalizing yet. Mortgage balances that were newly delinquent by 30 days or more at the end of Q4 ticked up to 3.0% of total balances — still lower than any time before the pandemic and down from the 3.5% range in 2017 through 2019 (red line in the chart below).
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.1% Year-over-year -From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 February U.S. hotel performance decreased slightly from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 February. ...
28 January through 3 February 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 55.2% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$147.99 (+1.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$81.69 (+1.7%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just below last year, and below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next 2 months.
Stunning Collapse In Credit Card Debt Change As Average APR Hits New All-Time High - After several months of wild swings in US consumer debt, culminating with last month's explosion in credit card debt which was the 2nd biggest on record, in December households finally hit a brick wall because according to the latest consumer credit data published by the Federal Reserve moments ago, in the last month of 2023 total consumer debt rose by a paltry $1.561 billion, which was not only nearly a 90% miss to consensus estimates of $15.9 billion..... but also a huge slowdown from November, tumbling by almost $22BN, the third biggest monthly drop since covid shut down the economy.When looking into the details of the report, we find something remarkable: while non-revolving credit rose a tiny $0.5BN...... which is to be expected in a time when student debt continues to shrink due to illegal debt discharges by the Biden admin (which is defying SCOTUS and continues to forgive billions in student loans) while auto loans are barely rising due to record interest rates...... what was the big shock in today's data was the absolute collapse in revolving credit, i.e., credit card debt, which in December collapsed from a $15.4BN increase in November - the second biggest on record - to just $1 bilion, the second smallest monthly increase with just the June 2023 contraction a greater outlier.Last but not least, the slowdown in debt, and especially credit card debt, is hardly a surprise since as the Fed also reported that in Q4, the average rate across all commercial banks on all credit card amounts just hit a new record high of 21.47% despite the drop in rates observed in late 2023, which is a vivid reminders that while banks are happy to hike credit card rates, they rarely if ever cut them.And with consumers increasingly reluctant to max out their credit cards due to record high rates, at a time when the personal savings rate in the US has collapsed from over 5% to 3.7% - the lowest since 2022 - in just a few months...... it is now only a matter of time before US GDP prints deep negative now that that pillar supporting 70% of the US economy, consumer purchases, is about to crack... or it would if it wasn't an election year and every single economic data point is now gamed and politicized BS.
Our Drunken Sailors’ Credit Card Balances, Burden, Delinquencies, and Available Credit -- Wolf Richter -- Credit cards are a measure of spending, not a measure of borrowing; they’re the dominant consumer payments method in the US, having largely replaced checks and cash. They’re used to pay for anything, from bar tabs to business trips that get reimbursed – and those can be large amounts. Credit cards were used for $5.8 trillion in transactions in 2022, according to the Nilsen Report. The new data, when it comes out, will show that consumers ran over $6 trillion through their credit cards in 2023 – very little of it got stuck as interest-bearing debt; most of it was paid off by due date with no interest due. And that’s what we’re seeing here. Credit card balances (red line in the chart below) – these are the statement balances before payments are made – rose by $50 billion in Q4 from Q3, to $1.13 trillion, according to the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit report. Year-over-year, credit card balances rose 14.3% on much higher spending on goods and services, including “revenge spending” on travels, restaurants, and entertainments – drunken sailors, we’ve come to call them lovingly and facetiously, but not so drunken because their income has risen even faster than their spending, and they were able to save a little. “Other” consumer loans (blue line), such as personal loans, payday loans, and Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) loans, rose by $25 billion in Q4 from Q3, and by $47 billion, or 9.3% year-over-year. BNPL loans are short-term loans, subsidized by the merchant, that are interest-free for the customer; and the entire loan has to be paid off in four or five payments. They’ve been around forever; but they’ve gotten a lot more convenient. Note that balances have barely risen over the past 20 years, despite the growth of the population, income, and spending over the period: Credit card balances and “other” consumer debt combined, at $1.68 trillion, rose to 8.2% of disposable income (income from all sources except capital gains, minus taxes and social insurance payments; the income consumers have left over to spend). This measure of the burden of credit card balances and other consumer loans, in relationship to disposable income, has come up from those free-money record lows and is in the range of the Good Times before the pandemic. Note something else: 20 years ago, that ratio was 14%, and some consumers got in trouble with them during the Great Recession – it seems, some lessons were learned: Despite all the hoopla last year about credit tightening for consumers – now forgotten, and even the Fed has axed this language from its January meeting statement – credit has not tightened in the arena of credit cards. Banks are trying as aggressively as ever to get people to set up new accounts, and they have raised the credit limits, and the aggregate credit limit has surged from record to record last year and in Q4 hit $4.79 trillion, while credit card balances ticked up to $1.23 trillion.And the total available unused credit surged to a record $3.66 trillion. There was a credit crunch during and after the Great Recession, visible by the sharp drop in unused credit (blue line), as banks cut credit limits, closed accounts, and licked their wounds.Subprime is always in more or less trouble, which is why it’s subprime. And the subprime segment is tightening, which we’ve already seen with auto loans. But for everyone else: banks are eager to lend them money:
Mixed US consumer price revisions leave slowing inflation trend intact (Reuters) - U.S. monthly consumer prices rose less than initially thought in December, but the overall inflation revisions were mixed, and did not shift expectations on the timing of an anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year. The annual revisions published by the Labor Department on Friday also showed the consumer price index increasing slightly more than previously reported in October and November. Prices excluding the volatile food and energy components were unrevised, after rounding, from October through December. All told, the revisions did not materially alter the path of inflation, which is moderating after surging in 2022. The revised CPI data had been eagerly awaited by financial markets and economists after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller last month flagged them as among the key data pieces he would be watching as policymakers try to gauge progress in their fight against inflation. "The revisions were much ado about nothing," "This is becoming a trend where a Fed official mentions a data release once and then everyone waits with bated breath only to find out that it's a bunch of noise." The consumer price index rose 0.2% in December instead of 0.3% as reported last month, the revisions of the CPI data published by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed. But data for November was revised up to show the CPI increasing 0.2% rather than 0.1% as previously estimated. The CPI gained 0.1% in October. Prices were previously reported to have been unchanged in October. The 3-month annualized increase in the CPI was revised up to a 1.9% rate from a 1.8% pace. The revisions emanated from the recalculation of seasonal adjustment factors, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. This routine procedure, which the BLS undertakes every year, covered data from January 2019 through December 2023. The year-on-year data, which is not seasonally adjusted, was unrevised. Excluding food and energy, the CPI advanced by 0.275% in December, which was rounded up to 0.3%. That was revised down from 0.309%, rounded to 0.3%. The so-called core CPI was revised up to 0.308% in November, rounded to 0.3%. It was previously reported to have increased 0.285% in November, rounded up to 0.3%. The 3-month increase in the core CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 3.3%. Core goods prices fell in the first half, but not as steeply as had been previously estimated, while the increase in the cost of services was revised down for November and December. The increase in services excluding rents was revised lower in November and December.
Wholesale Used Car Prices "Flat" in December; Down 9.2% Year-over-year -- From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Flat in January Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were unchanged in January compared to December. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) remained at 204.0 but down 9.2% from a year ago. The index experienced the same 0.0% monthly change from December 2021 to January 2022.“With the volatility we saw last year, it was a welcome sign for the industry to have a calmer month,” “We observed some price declines in the market in the first couple of weeks of January before the winter storm slowed activity in the wholesale markets during the King holiday week. As activity picked up later in the month, we saw more buying activity, which led to flat values in January. The 0.0% month-over-month change showed stronger values than the 0.2% decline we typically see in January. As we move into tax refund season, we expect to see a bit more activity in the wholesale market, and we maintain that 2024 should show more normal market trends through the year.” The seasonal adjustment countered the January non-adjusted decrease. The non-adjusted price in January declined by 0.2% compared to December, moving the unadjusted average price down 9.3% year over year.This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices were unchanged in December (seasonally adjusted) and were down 9.2% year-over-year (YoY).
Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Give Up 55% of Pandemic Spike: Historic Plunge after Crazy Spike - Wolf Richter - Used vehicle prices at auctions dipped another 0.2% in January 2024 from December 2023, not seasonally adjusted, to $18,074, the lowest since March 2021, and are down $4,828, or 21.1% from the peak in May 2022, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (red line in the chart). The plunge has now worked off over half (55%) of the historic and ridiculous 63% spike from February 2020 through March 2022, according to data from Manheim, the largest auto auction house in the US and a unit of Cox Automotive. What everyone wants to know is how much more it will work off before prices stabilize or start rising again. Auction prices usually dip in January from December, and so seasonally adjusted, wholesale prices remained flat in January from December, and are down by 20.8% from the seasonally adjusted peak in January 2022 (blue). These auctions are where dealers go to replenish their inventories. Supply comes from rental fleets that sell the vehicles they pull out of service (usually between 2.5-3.5 million vehicles per year), from finance companies that sell their lease returns and repos, from corporate and government fleets, etc. Retail prices have dropped 11% seasonally adjusted and 13% not seasonally adjusted from their respective peaks, as of December, according to the CPI for used vehicles. They have given up about one-third of the historic crazy 55% spike from February 2020 to the seasonally adjusted peak in January 2022 and to the not-seasonally adjusted peak in July 2022. But price declines hit a low in March 2023, then bounced off, then fell again later in 2023, and in late 2023 started ticking up again, in a marked disconnect from wholesale prices: Wholesale prices have now given up 55% of their pandemic spike, while retail prices have only given up 36% (both not seasonally adjusted), and haven’t even made it back to the lows of early 2023, and then they ticked up again: Inventories are rising, supply is ample. Used retail inventory rose to 2.39 million vehicles on dealer lots at the beginning of January, the latest estimates from Cox Automotive, compared to a range of 2.8-3.0 million in 2019. Supply at the end of January was 53 days, according to preliminary estimates by Cox Automotive, up from 49 days a year ago. So there’s not a glut of vehicles sitting on dealer lots, but inventories are ample and rising. And it looks like enough consumers are still on buyers’ strike, and that’s what it takes to put a lid on these still crazy prices.
US Diesel Supply Tightens As Manufacturing Comes Roaring Back - U.S. manufacturers are recovering from an extended slump in activity and their energy consumption is about to start rising, with the risk of tightening an already tight diesel market.Reuters market analyst John Kemp reported the index for manufacturing activity had improved to 49.1 for January from 47.1 in December. The latter figure was the highest since October 2022, Kemp noted in his report, adding that the trend signaled a return to growth.As manufacturing activity improves, however, diesel demand begins to increase in lockstep. This might be problematic in case of a fast recovery because distillate inventories in the U.S. remain below the five-year average, by 5%, per the latest weekly petroleum report of the Energy Information Administration.The state of distillate inventories, with the total as of January 26 standing at 10 million barrels below the 10-year seasonal average, per Kemp, is better than it was in late 2023. At that time, distillate stocks were 19 million barrels below the 10-year average. Even with the boost in stockpiles, the distillate supply balance remains elusive.This means that if manufacturing activity continues to improve, it will soon enough lead to higher fuel prices, which would in turn pressure that same manufacturing activity before too long, constraining any growth.Diesel prices are already on the rise, both thanks to the rebound in manufacturing activity and a refinery outage. BP’s whiting refinery in Indiana—the largest inland refinery in the U.S.—was shut down last week after a power outage. An analyst has said the return to operation could take as little as a week but there is no guarantee it will be so quick. BP has not given any timeline for the refinery’s return to operation.The outage comes on the heels of several weeks of lower fuel production across the country amid frigid winter weather, Bloomberg noted in a recent report. Supply, therefore, remains precariously close to a shortage.
Trade Deficit at $62.2 Billion in December - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $62.2 billion in December, up $0.3 billion from $61.9 billion in November, revised. December exports were $258.2 billion, $3.9 billion more than November exports. December imports were $320.4 billion, $4.2 billion more than November imports.. Both exports imports increased in December. Exports are up 3.2% year-over-year; imports are down 0.4$ year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports are moving sideways recently.
The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China decreased to $22.1 billion from $23.6 billion a year ago.
US Trade Deficit in 2023 Dropped 19%, as Goods Deficit with China Plunged 29%: Imports & Exports of Goods & Services | Wolf Richter - The US trade deficit in goods and services in the year 2023 improved by 19%, or by $178 billion, from 2022, according to the Census Bureau today. “Got less horrible” might be a better term. At $773 billion, the total trade deficit was the least horrible since 2020, due to an improvement in the huge goods trade deficit and a jump to a record in the services trade surplus. More on both in a moment.The trade deficit (“net exports”) is subtracted from GDP – and the smaller trade deficit amounted to a smaller deduction from GDP. This smaller trade deficit was in part responsible for the surprisingly strong GDP in 2023. The chart shows just how huge international trade is for the US, with over $3 trillion in exports of goods and services in 2023 (green, added to GDP), and nearly $4 trillion in imports of goods and services (yellow, subtracted from GDP). The red line represents the trade deficit, total exports minus total imports.
- Exports of goods (blue) fell by $39 billion to $2.05 trillion.
- Imports of goods (purple) improved by $161 billion to $3.11 trillion.
- As a result, the trade deficit in goods (red line) improved by $121 billion, to $1.06 trillion.
- Exports of services (blue) jumped by $74 billion, or by 8%, to a record $1.0 trillion.
- Imports of services (purple) worsened by $18 billion, or by 3%, to $714 billion.
- As a result, the trade surplus in services (red line) jumped by $58 billion, or by 24%, to $288 billion, the third best ever, behind 2019 and 2018.
Spending for international travel is part of the trade in services. Americans traveling overseas and spending money overseas on lodging, restaurants, tickets, etc., counts as imports of services. Foreign tourists, foreign students, foreign business people, etc. spending money in the US on lodging, restaurants, tuition, tickets, etc., counts as exports of services.Much of international travel came to a halt during the pandemic. By 2022, most of the travel restrictions were lifted or loosened, and travel in both directions rebounded. And 2023 was the year of “revenge travel” for Americans, and their spending overseas was a big factor in the worsening services imports. But foreign tourists, students, etc., also returned to the US in large numbers, and their spending helped push services exports to a record.We note that the trade surplus in services of $288 billion is dwarfed by the trade deficit in goods of $1.06 trillion. The US continues to have the worst goods trade deficit with China plus Hong Kong, which we now treat as one country. Nevertheless, in 2023, the goods trade deficit improved to the “least horrible” level since 2010:
- Imports of goods from them: -$110 billion, or -20.3%, to $431 billion, lowest since 2012.
- Exports of goods to them: -$4 billion, or -2%, to $176 billion.
- Trade deficit in goods: -$105 billion, or -29%, to $256 billion, lowest since 2010.
The opaque nature of international trade, such as trans-shipments through third countries, trade invoicing via third countries, etc., produces special effects, such as Ireland, which actually doesn’t export much to the US, but in which many huge US companies have entities through which winds the paper trail of their imports into the US. Vietnam has moved way up on the list in recent years as it has become a major transshipment center for China’s exports to the US to dodge US tariffs.
The $2 Trillion in Goods the US Exported in 2023: Led by Energy Products, Capital Goods, Pharmaceuticals, and Automotive by Wolf Richter (detailed tables) The huge US trade deficit improved – or got less horrible, we might say – by 19% in 2023, with exports of goods and services rising to $3.05 trillion, and with imports of goods and services falling sharply to $3.83 trillion, producing the least horrible trade deficit since 2020, of $773 billion. The US trade deficit with China and Hong Kong was cut by 29%, as other countries such as Vietnam and Mexico picked up some of the trade. As we discussed in detail the other day, it’s a good thing that trade finally improves, and it was a major contributor to the surprisingly strong GDP in 2023.Despite the horrible trade deficit, the US still exported over $2 trillion of goods alone – not counting services – amounting to roughly half the GDP of Germany. Those exports added $2 trillion to US GDP in 2023. Those are big numbers. But the US is a huge economy, and it doesn’t export enough, given the size of its economy; and it imports way too much.Industrial supplies and materials include crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and petrochemical products that together amounted to $466 billion in exports in 2023, but that was down by 13% from 2022 when $534 billion of the products were exported, amid the 50% surge that year. These products are the largest line items in the overall category “Industrial supplies and materials.” Some of the spike and retracement are related to the sharp movements in prices. The US has become the largest producer of crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas in the world, drill baby drill, and it has a large petrochemical industry, and exports large amounts of those products. “Capital goods except automotive” was the #1 export category until the export surge of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and petrochemical products took over. Exports of goods (blue) fell by $39 billion to $2.05 trillion, as we discussed here. Imports of goods (purple) improved by $161 billion to $3.11 trillion. So the trade deficit in goods (red line) improved by $121 billion, to $1.06 trillion, the first major improvement since 2009.
AAR: January Carloads Down and Intermodal Up YoY ==From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. In January, severe winter weather significantly disrupted railroad and rail customer operations in much of the country. Moreover, uncertainty remains in the economy, especially in sectors that are important to railroads, like manufacturing. Because of these factors, January is not necessarily a harbinger of what’s to come for rail traffic in the months ahead. That’s important to note, because total carloads on U.S. railroads fell 7.2%, or 79,725 carloads, in January 2024 from January 2023. It’s the largest year-over-year percentage decline for total carloads since February 2021 (another month when rail volumes were impacted by severe winter weather).Intermodal (which is not included in carloads) fared better in January: intermodal originations were up 5.5% over last year, their fifth consecutive gain following 18 consecutive declines. Gains in intermodal are partly due to higher port volumes over the past six months. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2022, 2023 and 2024: In January, U.S. railroads (excluding the U.S. operations of Canadian and Mexican railroads) originated 1.03 million total carloads, down 7.2% (79,725 carloads) from January 2023. Total carloads averaged 205,034 per week in January 2024, the smallest weekly average for January in our records that go back to 1988. (Since 1988, six months overall had lower weekly average carloads, most recently December 2022.) The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2022, 2023 and 2024: (using intermodal or shipping containers): Intermodal fared better than carloads in January: intermodal originations totaled 1.21 million containers and tr ailers, up 5.5% (63,195 units) over January 2023. That’s intermodal’s fifth consecutive year-over-year monthly gain following 18 consecutive declines.
ISM® Services Index Increases to 53.4% in January - The ISM® Services index was at 53.4%, up from 50.5% last month. The employment index increased to 50.5%, from 43.8%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 53.4% January 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.4 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 43 of the last 44 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022. “In January, the Services PMI® registered 53.4 percent, 2.9 percentage points higher than December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 50.5 percent. The composite index indicated growth in January for the 13th consecutive month after a seasonally adjusted reading of 49 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 55.8 percent in January, matching the seasonally adjusted reading of 55.8 percent in December. The New Orders Index expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55 percent is 2.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 52.8 percent. The PMI was above expectations.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 218,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending February 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 224,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 207,750 to 208,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 212,250. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.
Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 50,000 in January -The BLS reported 353 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January. During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 553 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 257 thousand (median 248 thousand), so more people than normal were impacted by bad weather. The BLS also reported 1.794 million people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in January due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 835 thousand (the median was 645 thousand). This series suggests weather negatively impacted employment more than usual.The San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For January, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather reduced employment by 40 to 60 thousand jobs. It appears weather adjusted job gains were around 400 thousand in January (seasonally adjusted)Ford reports $10.4 billion in 2023 profits, outlines plan to cut jobs - Ford Motor Co. made $10.41 billion in profits in 2023, according to figures released by the Dearborn, Michigan-based auto giant Tuesday. This included $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter last year, underscoring the virtually negligible impact of the “stand up” strike overseen by the United Auto Workers union bureaucracy. The company made $7.5 billion and a 7.3 percent profit margin from its Ford Blue division, which is centered on the company’s traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. It made another $7.2 billion and a staggering 12.4 percent profit margin at its Ford Pro division, which manufactures commercial vans and heavy-duty work trucks. Like many other automakers, the company has failed to turn a profit from electric vehicles despite massive federal government subsidies. Ford reported losing $4.7 billion in its Ford Model e division in 2023. CEO Jim Farley predicted that it would still take several years to turn a profit from EVs, but this depended on drastically reducing the costs and prices to compete with Tesla and Chinese EV manufacturers. In a conference call with analysts from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and Barclay’s on Tuesday, Farley boasted, “Despite the UAW strike, our auto profits were up year-over-year.” He said Ford would be “returning capital to our shareholders through a regular and special dividend.” Chief Financial Officer John Lawler told investors that whenever the regular dividend “doesn’t reach 40-50 percent, we will provide a supplemental dividend.” Reuters summed up the company’s earnings report in an article titled “Ford slows EVs, sends a truckload of cash to investors.” While the wealthiest shareholders swallowed up roughly half of Ford’s $6.8 billion in free cash flow last year, 58,000 UAW members are being forced to “share” the equivalent of less than 9 percent. Under the UAW’s “profit-sharing” scheme each Ford worker will be issued a check averaging $10,400, a sum which will be significantly reduced by taxes and union dues. Top UAW officials condescendingly “congratulated” workers on producing the profit bonanza for Ford. UAW Vice President for Ford Chuck Browning wrote in a letter to workers, “UAW Ford members play a key role in the success of the company through expertise, extraordinary efforts, and commitment to the jobs they perform each and every day.” “UAW President Shawn Fain and I extend well deserved congratulations and share deep appreciation for our hard-working UAW members at Ford,” the letter concluded. On Tuesday’s earnings call, Ford executives said the UAW strike had only led to the loss of 90,000 vehicles, a minuscule figure compared to the nearly 2 million vehicles the company sold last year. Ford Chief Financial Officer Lawler said the strike cost the company $1.7 billion last year, a drop in the bucket compared to the $176 billion in revenue the company accrued in 2023, which was up 11 percent from the year before.
Denver begins discharging migrants from shelters after brief pause - Hundreds of migrants will have to leave shelters across Denver, Colorado, this week after the Democratic-controlled city resumed discharges from city-run facilities. About 150 people were expected to be discharged on Monday and upwards of 60 people will be discharged every day over the next few months according to Jon Ewing, a spokesman for the Denver Department of Human Resources. Migrants rest at a makeshift shelter in Denver, January 6, 2023 [AP Photo/Thomas Peipert] The city paused discharges of migrant families from shelters in November in an effort to reduce the number of people on the street during the cold winter months. But a high influx of migrants, largely from Venezuela, has left shelters with a lack of space to accommodate everyone. According to a city dashboard there are nearly 3,800 migrants in the city’s shelters out of more than 38,000 migrants that have arrived over the past two years. New regulations will allow families up to 42 days (six weeks) and migrants without children just 14 days to stay in a shelter before they are discharged. This is even stricter than constraints in New York City where Democratic Mayor Eric Adams has imposed a 60 day limit for families and 30 days for individuals. City officials have converted hotel rooms into temporary housing for migrants to expand shelter space. On Monday, the city council approved $25 million to extend an agreement with Quebec Hospitality LLC through June that will fund hotel rooms for migrants. An additional $25 million funding package will be voted on next week, with $15 million coming out of the budget for the renovation of the Denver Human Services Department campus and $10 million from a contingency reserve fund. During a Town Hall last week Denver Mayor Mike Johnston said that the city has “filled every single hotel room that we have available in the city and county of Denver.” Yoli Casas with ViVe Wellness, a partner with the city’s migrant response, added that “We have never seen so many people come and so many people in the last year that are going to come out February 5. So February 5 for me is a date that hurts a lot because it’s a date that, for various reasons, we’re full. There’s just no more space.”
California sends reinforcements as crime surges in Oakland - Gov. Gavin Newsom is broadening a push to crack down on crime in Oakland, dispatching prosecutors to bolster a newly deployed force of California Highway Patrol officers. The effort announced Thursday reflects growing public frustration in the city east of San Francisco where surging violent and property crime have roiled the political climate and fueled recall drives. It also illustrates how rising crime concerns throughout California have become a political liability, drawing the attention of Newsom, Attorney General Rob Bonta, and Democratic state legislators. “The narrative around crime and lawlessness in Oakland is out of control and it clearly got the attention of both the governor and the attorney general,” said Justin Berton, a political consultant who worked for former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf and lives in the city. “The national story about Oakland is horrific right now, so that’s going to rub off on Rob Bonta and Gavin Newsom, and clearly their offices decided ‘no more.’” Further underscoring the political shift, San Francisco Mayor London Breed and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan on Thursday endorsed a ballot measure, spearheaded by a coalition of retailers and prosecutors, to roll back a prior voter-passed initiative, Proposition 47, by increasing penalties for property and drug crimes. Democratic mayors embraced the more stringent approach just four years after voters decisively rejected a similar ballot measure.Those changing political dynamics are manifesting in Oakland, a city of more than 400,000 where a surge in carjackings and shootings have galvanized voters, led local businesses to close, and spurred major employers to step up security measures.Bonta said in an interview that Mayor Sheng Thao and other local officials had asked the state for help. He noted that crime spikes in Oakland last year made the city an outlier as much of California saw decreases.
PA Court System Websites Go Offline After Denial Of Service Cyberattack - Parts of Pennsyvania's Courts' website went down on Sunday due to a denial of service cyberattack, according to 6ABC.PA Systems like PACFile, the use of online docket sheets, PAePay, and the Guardianship Tracking System were all affected, the report says. "At this time, there is no indication that any court data was compromised, and the courts will remain open and accessible to the public," the court said in an obligatorily reassuring sounding statement over the week.As 6ABC noted, a denial of service attacks works by flooding a network with traffic until a server is either unusable or crashes altogether. Chief Justice of Pennsylvania Debra Todd told ABC: "Our court information technology and executive team is working closely with law enforcement, including the CISA, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the F.B.I to investigate the incident."ABC National News reported later in the weekend that the Administrative Office of Pennsylvania Courts had not yet disclosed the identities of the assailants or their possible motivations. There was no confirmation regarding the effectiveness of their cybersecurity protocols, nor have there been any reports indicating whether the attackers sought financial demands or a ransom. The state's courts remained open, multiple sources, including NBC, said.
70% of kindergarteners didn't pass readiness test in pandemic, study estimates - Seven of 10 kindergarteners in Cincinnati Public Schools—the vast majority racial minority students—were deemed not ready to learn in the classroom in 2021, confirming the damaging effects of COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, according to a study published yesterday in JAMA Pediatrics.Before the pandemic, 60% were not ready for kindergarten, the findings revealed. A team led by Cincinnati Children's Hospital researchers analyzed the scores of 4,755 kindergarteners who took the state-required Kindergarten Readiness Assessment (KRA) in 2018, 2019, or 2021 (no test was administered in 2020 owing to pandemic restrictions). They did the same with 3,204 matched children with electronic health record data from the hospital's primary care clinics.The KRA measures skills in early reading and math, gross and fine motor tasks, self-regulation, and attention through 27 teacher-administered questions and tasks. The assessments are scored on a scale of 0 to 300, with 270 considered passing. Average participant age was 5.6 years, 50.3% were boys, 82.5% were Black, 7.6% were White, and 2.9% were Hispanic. "Early experiences, relationships, and socioeconomic conditions are foundational for early brain development, school readiness, and health outcomes," the study authors wrote. "Racial and socioeconomic opportunity gaps in the skills necessary to learn and succeed in school (including language, preliteracy, math and socioemotional skills such as executive function and self-regulation) start before kindergarten." They noted that fewer families, especially Black families, used early childhood education (ECE) services and developmental therapies during pandemic disruptions. "Many parents chose not to enroll their children in ECE out of fear of COVID-19 and difficulties navigating the arduous enrollment process," they wrote. In total, 817 parents (25.5%) reported reading to their child 0 or 1 day a week at least once during the study period, and 865 children (27.0%) didn't pass the age-appropriate, parent-completed Ages & Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) screening questionnaire at least once. Overall, 2,675 children (83.5%) had Medicaid coverage most of the time, 384 (12.0%) experienced food insecurity, and 855 (26.7%) lived with housing insecurity. Average KRA scores among the primary care patients were significantly lower (260.0; 214 of 998 [21.4%]) in 2021 than in 2019 (262.7; 317 of 1,114 [28.5%]) and 2018 (263.5; 351 of 1,092 [32.1%]), a pattern also seen in the larger school district. Only 30% of students were deemed kindergarten-ready in 2021, a significant drop from 40% in 2018. Primary care patients displayed a similar pattern, with 21.5% ready for kindergarten in 2021, compared with 32% in 2018. A final linear regression model involving 2,883 participants identified risk factors for a failing KRA score as a low ASQ score after 18 months of age (−6.7 points below average score of 270.8); Medicaid coverage (−5.7 points), Hispanic ethnicity (−3.8), need for an interpreter (−3.6), 2021 testing year (−3.5), male sex (−2.7), rare parental reading to child (−1.5), and food insecurity (−1.2). Race, caregiver depression, housing insecurity, and difficulty receiving benefits weren't linked to KRA scores. "This means that 7 of every 10 children in the Cincinnati Public Schools were considered not ready to learn when they entered kindergarten during the pandemic," lead author Kristen Copeland, MD, said in a hospitalnews release. "It will take intense effort on multiple levels to help these children overcome this disruption." The findings underscore the effect of food insecurity on health, the authors said. "Prior studies highlight the link between food insecurity and child behavior and reading/math readiness," they wrote. "Insufficient essential micronutrients and macronutrients (iron, folate, iodine, and vitamins B12 and D, long-chain and omega fatty acids) can also impair child brain development and school performance."
No more ‘D’ or ‘F’ grades? Grade inflation is masking a looming crisis of ignorance --I told my students on the first day of class this semester that I do not accept late work under any circumstances. Instead, I’m going to treat them like adults. The second week of school, I received no fewer than 15 emails from different students asking for extensions. What is wrong with students today? For one thing, they have learned from experience that professors will roll over and give them better grades and no consequences for poor or late work.This is the educators’ fault, of course. We have created a generation with no concept of what it takes or what it means to succeed.Take the Oregon university that just announced it will no longer give students failing letter grades. That’s right — no more “D” and “F” grades, because failing grades supposedly mask students’ “demonstrated abilities.” If you fail, then no grade goes on your record. This is their plan to mask your demonstrated inability to keep up and do the work.This is how our educational establishment is choosing to fail our kids upward. And there will be consequences for all of us.Do you want your nurse to know what drugs can and cannot be mixed together? Do you care if your doctor can distinguish different parts of the anatomy inside your heart? Do you care if the engineer who built the bridge you are driving over can do basic physics? If we keep going this way then you’re going to be out of luck, and it seems that educators have done a great job of keeping that information from you.We educators are failing an entire generation of kids, and you, their parents, probably don’t even know about it. This is partly because these students have been bringing home As and Bs for mediocre and failing work ever since kindergarten.
Study: Eliminating nonmedical exemptions tied to increased school vaccine uptake -Researchers show that the passage of a bill in New York state that banned nonmedical vaccine exemptions for school entry was associated with an increase in vaccine uptake outside of New York City, according to a study late last week in JAMA Network Open.The bill, Senate Bill 2994A, was passed by state lawmakers in June 2019 after two large measles outbreaks in the state almost removed the country's measles elimination status. The bill was effective immediately and did not excuse students with existing nonmedical exemptions from compliance.The study was based on school immunization compliance data from the 2012-13 through 2021-22 school years. Included were all public and private schools outside of New York City to look at trends in both school vaccine coverage (defined as the percentage of students at each school who completed grade-appropriate requirements for all required vaccines) and medical exemption uptake (defined as the percentage of students at each school who received a medical exemption), the authors said.A total of 3,632 schools were including in the final analysis. The post-2019 implementation of Senate Bill 2994A was associated with absolute increases in mean vaccine coverage of 5.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.5% to 6.6%) among nonpublic schools and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.7% to 1.1%) among public schools. The authors estimate Bill 2994A resulted in an annual mean increases of 1.0% among nonpublic schools and 0.3% among public schools estimated through the 2021 to 2022 school years, and the increases were statistically significant.
Jury finds mother of teenage Oxford High School shooter guilty of involuntary manslaughter - Jennifer Crumbley, the mother of Oxford High School shooter Ethan Crumbley, was found guilty on all four counts of involuntary manslaughter by a jury on Tuesday in Pontiac, Michigan. The trial and its outcome mark the first time that a parent in the US has been criminally charged and convicted for the violent actions committed by his or her child. After 11 hours of deliberation, the 15-person jury and two alternates decided unanimously that Jennifer Crumbley, 45, was responsible for the deaths of four students—Madisyn Baldwin, 17; Tate Myre, 16; Hana St. Juliana, 14; and Justin Shilling, 17—who were shot and killed by her son in between classes on November 30, 2021. The jury verdict is the product of a two-year campaign waged by Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald, a Democrat, along with the corporate media locally and nationally, to place the focus blame for the horrifying school shooting carried out in the exurban community of Oxford, which is 40 miles north of Detroit, on the parents. The father and husband, James Crumbley, faces the same charges of four counts of involuntary manslaughter as his wife. His trial is scheduled to begin on March 5. That the Crumbleys behaved irresponsibly is evident from the facts that came out at the trial. The feeling, on the part of parents who lost children and others impacted by the mass shooting, that some level of justice has been achieved is understandable, but it is fundamentally wrong. Jennifer Crumbley’s criminal conviction sets a reactionary and dangerous legal precedent. It is part of an effort by the political and judicial establishment to absolve themselves of any responsibility for the broader conditions behind school shootings and deflect attention from the fundamental, underlying social causes of the increasing number of such incidents across the country. Among the actions taken by the Crumbleys that facilitated the 15-year-old Ethan’s crime was buying him a 9mm SIG Sauer semi-automatic handgun as a Christmas gift just four days before he used it to carry out the school shooting. The evidence presented to the jury also showed that Ethan was able to bring the loaded gun to Oxford High School because the Crumbleys failed to secure the weapon and ammunition in their home. When Jennifer was asked during her testimony about the negligent handling of the weapon, she said, “That’s his thing,” referring to her husband. When Jennifer testified, she expressed the wish that her son had acted differently, but said that looking back, she would not have changed her parenting decisions.
West Point Can Continue Race-Based Admissions For Now, Supreme Court Rules --The Supreme Court allowed the U.S. Military Academy at West Point to continue considering race in admissions on Feb. 2 when it declined an injunction request from a nonprofit that opposes affirmative action.“The record before this Court is underdeveloped, and this order should not be construed as expressing any view on the merits of the constitutional question,” the order reads. Its language indicated that the court could still consider the merits at a later date.A similar injunction request was denied by a three-judge panel of the Second Circuit on Jan. 29. U.S. District Judge Philip Halperin said that the group Students for Fair Admissions, which brought the suit, “has failed to establish a likelihood of success warranting the extraordinary and drastic remedy sought.”Not enough evidence was presented to the court for it to decide whether the admissions process at the academy in New York “furthers compelling governmental interests and whether the government’s use of race is narrowly tailored to achieve that interest,” the judge wrote.The order comes less than a year after the Supreme Court ruled that Harvard College’s and the University of North Carolina’s use of affirmative action violated the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution. SFFA, which was a litigant in that case, asked for an injunction, noting that the prior decision didn’t apply to military academies. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion and included a footnote excluding military academies from the decision.It reads: “The United States as amicus curiae contends that race-based admissions programs further compelling interests at our Nation’s military academies. No military academy is a party to these cases, however, and none of the courts below addressed the propriety of race-based admissions systems in that context. This opinion also does not address the issue, in light of the potentially distinct interests that military academies may present.”
Colleges turn to older students to stem enrollment crisis – Colleges and universities across the U.S. are trying to enroll more “adult” students as their traditional-aged applicant pool grows ever smaller. Facing a decline in enrollment — and fearing that decline could become a cliff as America’s population of fresh high school graduates continues to shrink — schools are offering flexible schedules, financial aid, childcare and specialized advisors in an effort to appeal to adults 25 and older. The enrollment drop presents problems both for schools’ finances and, more broadly, for the American labor market, as a drop in the number of college graduates could worsen labor shortages in fields such as health care. “We have a responsibility to fill that skills gap,” said Pueblo Community College (PCC) President Patricia Erjavec. Making it easier for adult learners, especially those with some college education, to return to school is one way to address both issues. The number of American adults with some college experience but no degree grew to 40.4 million in 2023, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.“That is an extraordinary number of people that are ripe for returning to higher education,” said National Association for College Admission Counseling CEO Angel Perez. Among the schools working to attract such students is Detroit’s Wayne State University, which is appealing to them through debt forgiveness and advising programs. The university’s “Warrior Way Back” program offers to completely forgive the debts of former students who owe the school $4,000 or less and have not taken a class there for two years or more, according to the school’s website.Wayne State’s President for Academic Student Affairs Ahmed Ezzeddine said this has been helpful for former students who have nearly enough credits to earn their degrees. “We’ve had students who have had 100 credits already and are just short four or five classes,” he said. “So, we work with them again on getting that.” The university offers re-entry programs for former students who had to drop out and were on academic probation. On top of this, it offers special advising for first-time students 25 and older.
Glimpse Of Sanity: Dartmouth Returns Standardized Testing For Admission After Failed Experiment - In response to the virus pandemic and nationwide Black Lives Matter riots in the summer of 2020, some elite colleges and universities shredded testing requirements for admission. Several years later, the test-optional admission has yet to produce the promising results for racial and class-based equity that many woke academic institutions wished. The failure of test-optional admission policies has forced Dartmouth College to reinstate standardized test scores for admission starting next year. This should never have been eliminated, as merit will always prevail. "Nearly four years later, having studied the role of testing in our admissions process as well as its value as a predictor of student success at Dartmouth, we are removing the extended pause and reactivating the standardized testing requirement for undergraduate admission, effective with the Class of 2029," Dartmouth wrote in a press release Monday morning. "For Dartmouth, the evidence supporting our reactivation of a required testing policy is clear. Our bottom line is simple: we believe a standardized testing requirement will improve—not detract from—our ability to bring the most promising and diverse students to our campus," the elite college said. Who would've thought eliminating standardized tests for admission because a fringe minority said they were instruments of racism and a biased system was ever a good idea?
Massachusetts Cuts College Degree Requirements For 90% Of State Jobs -- Massachusetts will no longer require a college degree for a large majority of government jobs due to a new state executive order intended to make the commonwealth more “inclusive”. Governor Maura Healey signed the order, titled “Instituting Skill-Based Hiring Practices,” on Jan 25. The document asserts that “skills-based hiring practices will strengthen the Commonwealth’s workforce, increase access to quality jobs for nontraditional candidates with varied backgrounds and work experiences, and reduce structural barriers that result in inequities in pay and access to employment.” It also contends that such practices will build a “workforce that is representative of the diversity of the state.” The guideline directs hiring managers to “consider the full set of competencies that candidates bring to the job beyond traditional education.” It prohibits a minimum level of education from being included in job listings “unless the Human Resources Division determines that a particular level of education is necessary to perform the job after completing a job analysis.” Candidates will now be assessed based on “their skills from real-world experience, military service, apprenticeship and certificate programs, internships, and other on-the-job programs.” “This Executive Order directs our administration to focus on applicants’ skills and experiences, rather than college credentials,” Healey said in an address announcing the new guidelines. “It will expand our applicant pool and help us build a more inclusive and skilled workforce than ever before.” Several state labor and education leaders issued statements in support of the order. Massachusetts AFL-CIO President and CEO Chrissy Lynch applauded the governor for what she called an “inclusive workforce strategy.”
Faculty Senate calls on University of Michigan to divest from firms aiding Israeli genocide - On January 29, the Faculty Senate of the University of Michigan (U-M) approved a resolution calling on the university to cut its financial ties with companies involved in the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The resolution cites evidence from the Gaza Ministry of Health, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International that documents the horrific loss of civilian lives in Gaza and the United States’ shared responsibility with the Israeli state for the mass slaughter of defenseless Palestinians. The Faculty Senate resolution calls on the university leadership to “divest from its financial holdings in companies that invest in Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza.” The final section of the resolution emphasizes that the call for divestment “is not a request to end support, academically or financially, for any of U-M’s partnerships with Israeli colleges or universities…” The resolution passed by a vote of 38-17, with five abstentions. The International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) at the University of Michigan supports the principled stand taken by the Faculty Senate. It is an expression of the breadth and depth of opposition among workers, students, educators and faculty members in the US and internationally to the mass murder and ethnic cleansing being carried out by the fascist Netanyahu regime, with the indispensable and full support of the Biden administration and all of the imperialist powers. The vote is all the more significant in the context of the bipartisan witch-hunt against students, professors and campus workers involved in protests against the US-Israeli genocide, including police attacks on peaceful demonstrators and efforts to criminalize and ban campus organizations that defend the Palestinian people and oppose the Zionist apartheid state. They—as well as artists, musicians, actors, authors and others in public life who speak out against the genocide—are being libeled with the vile and false accusation of “antisemitism.” The U-M administration has joined the attack on free speech, publicly denounced by the ACLU of Michigan as “McCarthyite,” by calling out the police to arrest peaceful protesters and shutting down the referendum organized by the student government on resolutions on Gaza, including one calling on the university to acknowledge that the Gaza war is a “genocide” and divest from corporations tied to the Israeli regime. The Faculty Senate vote was in direct defiance of the administration’s repressive campaign. This was crystal clear at the Faculty Senate meeting that voted for the resolution. Speaking on behalf of U-M President Santa Ono and the Board of Regents, U-M Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Geoffrey Chatas spoke against the divestment resolution, saying: It has been the university’s unwavering policy to shield the endowment from political pressures and to base its investment decisions on financial factors such as risk and return and applicable law. In other words, “Cash Über Alles,” genocide notwithstanding.
Report warns of 'brain drain' from antibiotic research and development Two new reports this week from a coalition of industries working to combat antimicrobial resistance (AMR) highlight some of the progress that's been made, along with a critical problem that could undermine efforts to develop much-needed new antibiotics.In a progress report released earlier this week, the AMR Industry Alliance (AMRIA) said a survey of its members showed that nearly three-quarters had implemented measures to support antimicrobial stewardship and appropriate use of AMR-relevant products, and more than two-thirds of members are actively supporting efforts to increase access to their products in lower-resource countries. Thirty-four AMRIA members have invested roughly $2 billion annually in AMR-relevant research and development (R&D). The progress report also noted that 90% of surveyed members of AMRIA—a collection of companies and trade associations representing the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, generics, and diagnostics industries—have met the requirements of the Common Antibiotic Manufacturing Framework, which was developed by AMRIA in 2018 to guide environmental management of antibiotic manufacturing sites. That framework is part of AMRIA's efforts to limit the release of antibiotic manufacturing waste into the environment.But the march against AMR could be severely hampered by a significant "brain drain" from the antibiotic R&D workforce, AMRIA warned in a report released today.The "Leaving the Lab" report estimates there are approximately 3,000 AMR researchers currently active in the world, compared with as many as 46,000 for cancer and 5,000 for HIV/AIDS. Analysis of AMR-related research papers highlights the decline in AMR researchers over the last two-plus decades, with the total number of authors on those papers falling from 3,599 in 1995 to 1,827 in 2020.As a result, AMR and antibiotic research output has shrunk. In 2022, the report found, only 187 papers on antibiotics were published, compared with 586 in 1995. There were 35 times more papers published on cancer in 2022 than on priority bacteria, and 20 times more patents were awarded for cancer drugs than antibiotics.
FDA removal of decongestants made with ineffective drug would disrupt drug supply chain, experts say - If the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) pulls cough and cold medications containing the active ingredient phenylephrine from shelves, it will set off a wave of drug supply chain problems, researchers from the University of Pittsburgh and the University of Toronto assert today in JAMA. In September 2023, the FDA's Non-prescription Drug Advisory Committee reviewed new data on phenylephrine, concluding that it is ineffective. The committee recommended that the drug, used in many over-the-counter nasal decongestants as a single ingredient or in combination with other ingredients, be removed from the market. For today's study, the researchers analyzed pharmacy and retail-outlet purchases of phenylephrine and pseudoephedrine—the only two nasal decongestants approved by the FDA—from 2012 through 2021 using IQVIA's Multinational Integrated Data Analysis quarterly sales-volume data. During the study period, 732 unique phenylephrine medications (21 stand-alone, 711 combination products) and 495 pseudoephedrine preparations (54 stand-alone, 441 combination) were on the market. US pharmacies bought 19.8 billion units of phenylephrine products for $3.4 billion and 13.2 billion units of pseudoephedrine preparations for $3.8 billion. Phenylephrine sales declined significantly over time, from 1.68 billion units in 2012 to 0.98 billion units in 2021. The researchers said that if the FDA decides to pull phenylephrine, most multi-symptom products will be unavailable as they undergo reformulation, as few pseudoephedrine alternatives are available. The FDA is requesting public comment before taking any action. In the event of an administrative removal of these products, the authors said clinicians and consumers could substitute oral pseudoephedrine or intranasal decongestants such as phenylephrine or oxymetazoline.
Bivalent COVID vaccine shows 54% protection in school-age kids -Data from three prospective US cohort studies suggest that bivalent (two-strain) mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were 54% effective against lab-confirmed COVID infection and 49.4% protective against symptomatic disease in school-aged children, researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and collaborators from several states reported yesterday.The group's goal was to flesh out limited data about the effectiveness of the vaccines in children and adolescents, and the authors noted that previous studies were limited by their small sample sizes. For the new analysis, the investigators included data from three earlier studies that included nearly 3,000 participants from six diverse sites. The team published its findings yesterday in JAMA.From September 4, 2022, to January 21, 2023, participants ages 5 to 17 years completed regular surveys, submitted self-collected nasal swabs, and sent more nasal swabs when they had symptoms. The Omicron variant was dominant over that period.Of the 2,959 participants, 25.4% had received the bivalent COVID vaccine. Over the study period, 426 children (14.4%) had lab-confirmed infections, of whom 383 were unvaccinated or had received only the monovalent (single-strain) vaccine. Median observation time was 276 days for kids who had received only the monovalent vaccine and 50 days for those who had gotten the bivalent version.The researchers didn’t find any differences within age-groups, and they didn't see any waning in protectiveness after the bivalent vaccine, though they said there might not have been enough time for assessment. They noted the findings were consistent with limited earlier data on the bivalent vaccine in kids and teens.
Insomnia common months after even mild COVID-19 -According to the results of a new survey given to Vietnamese patients and published in Frontiers in Public Health yesterday,76% people who reported mild COVID-19 infections in the previous 6 months said they now experience insomnia, with 22.8% of those respondents saying their insomnia is severe.The study was based on surveys given to 1,056 adults who had been diagnosed as having COVID-19 in the past 6 months. All study participants were reached through a national Vietnamese register of confirmed COVID cases. No one was hospitalized for their COVID infections, and participants reported no history of insomnia or psychiatric onditions.Surveys on a range of symptoms following COVID-19 were completed from June to September 2022. In addition to demographic information, participants were asked about the duration and severity of COVID-19 infections, anxiety, depression, or stress symptoms.Patients were also asked to compare how well they slept, how long they slept, and how easy it was to fall asleep in the previous 2 weeks, compared to before contracting COVID-19. Among the 76.1% who said they now experienced insomnia, half reported new and frequent episodes of waking up at night since contracting COVID-19. One-third said they experienced difficulty falling asleep.The 76% figure is much higher than reports of insomnia among the general population, which is between 10% and 20%, the authors note. The authors found no correlation between initial COVID symptom severity and insomnia. In fact, even people who reported asymptomatic COVID-19 infections reported subsequent insomnia. The researchers also found no correlation between COVID duration and insomnia.Study participants who saw an increase in depressive or anxiety symptoms following COVID were most at risk for insomnia. Participants with high depression scores (odds ratio [OR], 3.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.87 to 6.34) or anxiety scores (OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 2.52 to 6.13) had more than triple the odds of developing insomnia. Correlations between insomnia, depression, and anxiety were strong to moderate in the study, the authors said, suggesting a role for pharmacologic treatment of insomnia following COVID-19. In a Frontiers press release on the study, first author Huong T. X. Hoang, MD, of Phenikaa University, Vietnam, said the study confirmed what he had found anecdotally as a sleep researcher: More people reported insomnia after minor COVID-19 infections.
Elderly with Omicron pneumonia and bacterial infection often have functional decline a year later -- Japanese researchers studying functional decline among patients aged 80 years and older hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron pneumonia find significantly higher rates of decline in those also infected with bacteria than in those with primary viral pneumonia 1 year later, though both groups had substantial levels of impairment.The study, published yesterday in Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, was conducted at five Japanese hospitals and clinics from December 2021 to August 2022. Attending physicians calculated the difference in activities-of-daily-living (ADL) scores from hospital admission to release."During the period when the ancestral [SARS-CoV-2] strain, Alpha variant, and Delta variant were dominant, bacterial coinfection and secondary bacterial infection in patients with COVID-19 were low," the study authors wrote. "In the Omicron period, however, the pattern of pneumonia changed from primarily viral pneumonia to pneumonia mixed with bacteria, mainly aspiration pneumonia." Of the 891 patients with pneumonia due to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, 303 had primary viral pneumonia and 326 patients had pneumonia mixed with bacteria (primarily aspiration pneumonia).Among patients with primary viral pneumonia, 112 cases were sequenced as the Omicron BA.1 subvariant, 70 were BA.2, and 121 cases were BA.5. Among patients with pneumonia mixed with bacteria, 118 cases were caused by Omicron BA.1, 72 were BA.2, and 136 were BA.5. The proportion of subvariants and vaccination status was the same between the two groups. Functional decline rates at hospital release were significantly higher in patients with primary viral pneumonia than in those with pneumonia mixed with bacteria (52.3% vs 40.3%).But by 1 year, 139 of 171 (81.3%) patients with pneumonia mixed with bacteria who experienced reduced physical function at hospital release still showed functional decline. In comparison, 20.5% of patients with primary viral pneumonia had functional decline at 1 year. Among the Omicron subvariant groups, functional decline rates at hospital release and 1 year later were similar in both pneumonia groups.The researchers noted that the bacterial-coinfection group had higher rates of cerebrovascular disease and chronic kidney disease than those with primary viral pneumonia. "Thus, it is quite possible that comorbid conditions affect the physical functional decline in elderly COVID-19 patients with bacterial coinfection," they wrote.Because functional decline during or after hospitalization is tied to adverse health outcomes, prolonged hospital stays, and more episodes of early hospital admission, the authors wrote, "it is necessary to consider early rehabilitation and treatment in elderly patients even when the predominant strain is the Omicron variant."
Long-COVID patients see improvement with online program - An 8-week online rehabilitation program helped long-COVID patients improve their quality of life, according to a new studypublished in The BMJ.Compared to standard care, UK patients who completed online group sessions as part of the REGAIN program saw less fatigue, pain, and depression, in one of the first trials to measure outcomes of a long-COVID rehab program. The trial took place between January 2021 and July 2022.The trial participants included 585 adults (average age 56 years) who had been hospitalized for COVID-19 at least 3 months earlier and reported substantial lasting symptoms. Overall, 88% of participants were overweight or obese, and 34% had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for COVID.Baseline health-related quality of life was low, and 43% of participants had a mental health disorder, the authors said."The most common pre-existing medical conditions related to chest or breathing (444/585; 76%) and musculoskeletal conditions (275/585; 47%), and more than one third of participants were unable to work owing to post-covid-19 condition (222/585; 38%)," the authors wrote.Half of the participants (287) were randomized to receive standard care (a single online session of advice) and 298 to the REGAIN intervention (eightweekly home-based, group exercise and psychological support sessions delivered online).At 3 months, 17% (39) of the intervention group reported that their overall health was "much better now" compared with 8% (20) in the usual-care group. One serious adverse event of fainting and vomiting after exercise was deemed possibly related to the intervention, and two adverse events (knee pain with exercise, and severe anxiety before exercise) were deemed definitely related, the authors said.There were no improvements at the 6-month mark, but by 12 months participants in the REGAIN group showed significant improvements.Overall participants in the REGAIN intervention group had higher odds (odds ratio 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.14 to 2.41) of being more physically active compared with participants in the usual care group.Importantly, the magnitude of improvement in the REGAIN intervention group for post-traumatic stress disorder was twofold greater than in the control group.
Healthcare use, costs rose after COVID infection, even for healthy adults - Healthcare use and medical costs increased in the year following COVID-19 infection in healthy adults, even among those who weren't hospitalized, a Pfizer-based research group reported late last week in BMC Medicine. The team examined medical records of 3,792 adults ages 18 to 64 from an Optum database who were diagnosed as having COVID-19 from April 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020. They compared healthcare use and costs before and after infection. They examined three cohorts: people who weren't hospitalized, those who were hospitalized without intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and those who were admitted to the ICU.Patients with underlying conditions were excluded from the study, and researchers from the same group had conducted a similar study on patients with COVID who had chronic conditions that was published the previous day in the same journal. Among the previously healthy adults, healthcare burden in the year following COVID infection increased in all subgroups, even in those who hadn't been hospitalized. Similar to the companion chronic disease study, the greatest increases involved new blood-related diagnoses, which increased more than 150% compared to the baseline period. New diagnoses for neurologic and psychological conditions also increased following COVID infection. Respiratory disease declined 27%, but were offset by a large rise in chronic respiratory conditions. Different from the study in the high-risk patients, healthy adults had a 123% increase in endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases and a 76% increase in digestive conditions. Researchers observed an increase in prescriptions for hormone medications, especially ones to treat joint stiffness and muscle pain, as well as vascular and musculoskeletal agents. Costs were also higher after COVID infection compared to baseline, similar to the study in chronically ill patients. "Even among those who were not hospitalized during the acute phase of COVID-19, inpatient visit costs during the post-acute phase increased by 578%, outpatient visit costs increased by 139%, and total medical costs increased by 138%," they wrote.
New analysis reveals many excess deaths attributed to natural causes are actually uncounted COVID-19 deaths -A new study provides the most compelling data yet to suggest that excess mortality rates from chronic illnesses and other natural causes were actually driven by COVID-19 infections, disproving high-profile claims that have attributed these deaths to other factors such as COVID vaccinations and shelter-in-place policies.Nearly 1,170,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the United States, according to official federal counts, but multiple excess mortality studies suggest that these totals are vastly undercounted. While excess mortality provides an estimation of deaths that likely would not have occurred under normal, non-pandemic conditions, there is still little evidence into whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus contributed to these additional deaths, or whether these deaths were caused by other factors such as health care disruptions or socioeconomic challenges. Now, a new study led by Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) and the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) provides the first concrete data showing that many of these excess deaths were indeed uncounted COVID-19 deaths.Published in the journal PNAS, the study compared reported COVID-19 deaths to excess deaths due to non-COVID natural causes, such as diseases and chronic illnesses, and found that increases in non-COVID excess deaths occurred at the same time or in the month prior to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths in most US counties.Focusing on excess deaths by natural causes rather than all-cause excess death estimates provides a more accurate understanding of the true number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, as it eliminates external causes for mortality, such as intentional or unintentional injuries, for which COVID-19 would not be a contributing factor."Our findings show that many COVID-19 deaths went uncounted during the pandemic. Surprisingly, these undercounts persisted well beyond the initial phase of the pandemic," says study corresponding author Dr. Andrew Stokes, associate professor of global health at BUSPH, who has led numerous studies analyzing excess mortality patterns and drivers during the pandemic.The temporal correlation between reported COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes offers insight into the causes of these deaths, he says. "We observed peaks in non-COVID-19 excess deaths in the same or prior month as COVID-19 deaths, a pattern consistent with these being unrecognized COVID-19 deaths that were missed due to low community awareness and a lack of COVID-19 testing."If the primary explanation for these deaths were health care interruptions and delays in care, the non-COVID excess deaths would likely occur after a peak in reported COVID-19 deaths and subsequent interruptions in care, says study lead author Eugenio Paglino, a Ph.D. student studying demography and sociology at UPenn. "However, this pattern was not observed nationally or in any of the geographic subregions we assessed," Paglino says.Importantly, these findings also disprove political assertions or public beliefs that have attributed mortality during the pandemic to COVID-19 vaccinations or shelter-in-place policies.
US outpatient care for serious mental health issues declined during COVID-19 - A study today in the Annals of Internal Medicine shows that while telemedicine helped some groups seeking mental health care during the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans with serious mental health symptoms suffered from a decline in in-person outpatient mental health visits that has persisted. Moreover, this lack of outpatient care for those with significant mental illness was seen mostly in patients with lower incomes and education levels. In a related study, fewer Swedish teens sought care for mental health issues during COVID-19, but their mental health appeared to improve during the pandemic. "Thanks to a rapid pivot to telemental health care, there was an overall increase during the pandemic of adults receiving outpatient mental health care in the United States," said Mark Olfson, MD, MPH, of Columbia University, first author of the Annals study, in a university press release. "However, the percentage of adults with serious psychological distress who received outpatient mental health treatment significantly declined." The study was based on trends seen in participants in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component, given from 2018 to 2021 to 86,658 adults. Respondents were asked how frequently in the previous 30 days they had felt so sad that nothing could cheer them up, nervous, restless or fidgety, hopeless, that everything was an effort, or worthless (all, most, some, a little, or none of the time). Responses were scored from 0 to 4, with a score of 13 or higher defining serious psychological distress, the authors said. During the study period, the rate of serious psychological distress among adults increased from 3.5% to 4.2%, the authors said, likely due to the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, stress, job loss, and school disruptions. The rate of outpatient mental health care increased from 11.2% to 12.4% overall from 2018 to 2021. But the rate decreased from 46.5% to 40.4% among adults with serious psychological distress. Instead, people with higher education degrees, more moderate ranking of mental illness, and younger adults were more likely to use telemental care. Adults over the age of 45 did not see the same increase in telemental care, nor did those seeking care for bipolar disorder or schizophrenia. By 2021, the authors wrote, approximately one third of adults who received outpatient mental healthcare had received one or more mental health video visits. "Several groups also had difficulty accessing telemental health care including older individuals and those with lower incomes and less education," observed Olfson. "These patterns underscore critical challenges to extend the reach and access of telemental health services via easy-to-use and affordable service options."
US respiratory virus activity remains high, with flu B rising in 2 regions -The nation's respiratory virus activity last week remained elevated, and flu levels rose in some regions of the country, partly due to a slight rise in influenza B activity, which is sometimes seen in the latter half of the flu season.In its respiratory virus snapshot today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said COVID-19 indicators declined last week, with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) levels continuing to decline in many areas.The CDC said flu activity rose in the Central and Midwestern regions, mainly due to increasing detections of influenza B. And though flu test positivity remained stable nationally last week, it is increasing in the Middle Atlantic, Midwest, and Central parts of the country.The percentage of outpatient visits for flulike illness remained steady, at 4.4%, and is still above the baselines for all 10 of the CDC's regions. Clinic visits for flu rose in young people ages 5 to 24 and remained stable for infants and toddlers, as well as for seniors.Of viruses tested at public health labs, 76.1% were influenza A and 23.9% were influenza B. And of subtyped influenza A viruses, 67.5% were the 2009 H1N1 strain and 32.5% were H3N2.Hospitalizations for flu decreased and were highest in seniors, followed by adults ages 50 to 64 and children ages 0 to 4. Flu-related deaths trended downward overall, but the CDC reported 8 more pediatric flu deaths, raising the season's total to 74. The latest deaths occurred between the week ending December 23 and the week ending February 3. Seven were linked to influenza A, and, of 4 subtyped samples, 3 were H1N1 and the other was H3N2. One of the deaths was due to influenza B.In its latest COVID-19 data update today, the CDC said its two main severity indicators—hospitalizations and deaths—both declined last week. Down 10% compared to the previous week, hospitalizations remain elevated in seniors and infants under 12 months of age. Deaths declined by 6.1%. Early indicators also trended downward. Emergency department (ED) visits were down 10.8% and were highest in infants younger than 12 months and seniors. Test positivity declined by 0.6% and is at 10% nationally, with the level higher in parts of the Northeast and the South. Wastewater levels nationally remain high but declining, according to CDC tracking. Biobot wastewater tracking shows an upward trend for the Northeast and level trends for other parts of the country.RSV markers continue to decline in many areas. Hospitalizations are decreasing in young children but are still elevated in older adults, the CDC said.ED visits and test positivity for RSV are also trending downward.In its background information, the CDC said RSV activity typically occurs during late fall, winter, and early spring and that outbreak timing can vary by region and even among communities in the same region.
Flu virus variants resistant to new antiviral drug candidate lose pathogenicity, study finds - Influenza A viruses with induced resistance to a new candidate antiviral drug were found to be impaired in cell culture and weakened in animals, according to a study by researchers in the Center for Translational Antiviral Research at Georgia State University.In a study published in PLOS Pathogens, the authors explored the developmental potential of 4'-fluorouridine (4'-FlU), a clinical drug candidate, for influenza therapy. They resistance-profiled the compound against influenza viruses and mapped possible routes of viral escape, addressing specifically whether resistance affects viral pathogenicity and ability to transmit.In previous studies, 4'-FlU demonstrated broad oral efficacy against seasonal, pandemic and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in cell culture, human airway epithelium cells and two animal models, ferrets and mice.Seasonal influenza viruses pose a major public health threat, infecting nearly 1 billion people worldwide each year and causing millions to require hospitalization and advanced care. Annual flu vaccines provide moderate protection, but the benefit is marginal when vaccines are poorly matched with circulating virus strains or when novel pandemic virus strains emerge.While three different classes of antivirals are approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for use against influenza, they each have a low genetic barrier against viral resistance. One of these classes is no longer recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention due to widespread presence of resistance mutations in circulating human and animal influenza A virus strains. Resistance has also been frequently observed to the other two classes of antivirals in human viruses."In this study, we tested the potential of 4'-FlU as an influenza drug and found that resistant influenza A virus variants are severely weakened in mice. In ferrets, these resistant variants are impaired in their ability to invade the lower respiratory tract and cause viral pneumonia, in addition to being transmission-defective or compromised," Lieber said.In cell culture, six different escape lineages with distinct mutations were found. The mutations adhered to three distinct structural clusters that are all predicted to affect the active site of the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase complex, leading to moderately reduced viral sensitivity to the drug, according to the study's findings.The study also found that oral 4'-FlU administered at the lowest efficacious dose (2 mg/kg) or elevated dose (10 mg/kg) overcame moderate resistance when mice were infected with a lethal amount of influenza virions. This was demonstrated by significantly reduced virus load and complete survival, the authors reported.
Rhinovirus causes significant number of infant hospital admissions - Though respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen associated with infant hospitalization and ventilation worldwide, infections with human rhinovirus (HRV) also make up a significant proportion of hospitalizations for viral bronchiolitis—up to two-thirds that of RSV-related hospital admissions, according to a new research letter in JAMA Network Open. With recent developments with monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccines, the landscape of infant hospitalizations due to RSV may soon change, the authors write, with RSV-related hospitalizations reduced by more than 80%. Less understood is the role HRV plays in infant hospitalizations. To assess the burden of HRV, the authors looked at a historical cohort of infants hospitalized in a tertiary hospital in Lyon, France, with laboratory-confirmed RSV or HRV infections between 2019 and 2022. From July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2022, a total of 1,122 RSV and 766 HRV infections were identified, meaning the admission rate due to HRV was 68% of the total for RSV. The hospitalization ratio of HRV to RSV days was 51% (3,608 of 7,017 infant-days), and for days of ventilation, 27% (392 of 1,426 infant-days). "The temporal distribution showed that HRV-related burden was spread across the year, while RSV-related burden was seasonal," the authors said. "To protect hospital and nonhospital pediatric settings from the devastating effects of multipathogen winter epidemics, efforts must be made to include HRV in the development of multipathogen vaccines and to continue to optimize patient management by developing tailored protocols for home enteral nutrition and home oxygen therapy for infants with moderately severe bronchiolitis," they concluded.
Maryland and Ohio confirm new measles cases - Two states—Maryland and Ohio—reported more measles cases, part of an ongoing rise in detections related to an overall increase in global activity. The Maryland Department of Health reported an infection in a Montgomery County resident who had recently traveled internationally. In a statement, officials warned the public about possible exposures at Washington's Dulles International Airport, an apartment complex in Silver Springs, and a hospital emergency department. The Ohio Department of Health, meanwhile, reported its first measles case of 2024, which involves a child from Montgomery County, home to Dayton. A statement from Dayton and Montgomery Public Health said the patient was evaluated at Dayton Children's Hospital on January 29 and January 30 and that people in certain parts of the facility may have been exposed. The case marks Montgomery County's first since 2005. Ohio recorded just one measles case in 2023, but in 2022, the state battled an 85-case outbreak in the central part of the state. In late January, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged healthcare providers to be alert for fever and rashes in people who have traveled overseas, following increasing reported of mostly imported cases and an ongoing rise in global cases.
139 catch gastrointestinal illness on cruise ship: CDC — Over 130 people suffered digestive problems due to an unknown illness on a cruise ship, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A CDC report released Thursday said numerous people aboard the Queen Victoria, a cruise ship run by Cunard Cruise Line, suffered from gastrointestinal disease with diarrhea and vomiting.According to officials, 123 of the 1,824 passengers were sickened, along with 16 of the 967 crew members. That’s almost 7% of the passengers and nearly 2% of the crew, the CDC noted.As of the latest update, the cause of the illness is unknown. The CDC also said that the case number doesn’t reflect active cases, but rather the total number of cases for the entire voyage.The CDC said the current leg of the cruise ship’s voyage began on Jan. 22, although the entire world voyage began on Jan. 11 in Southampton, England. According to Cunard’s website, the ship left Fort Lauderdale on Jan. 22. The 109-day world voyage was scheduled to end on April 28, when the ship returns to England. Cruise ships are required to report gastrointestinal illnesses to the CDC’s Vessel Sanitation Program before arriving in a U.S. port from a foreign port if: 2% or more of the passengers or crew are ill and the ship is in the U.S. or within 15 days of arriving at a U.S. port; or if 3% or more of the passengers or crew have gastrointestinal illness.
Study finds racial, ethnic minorities underrepresented in antibiotic trials for Staph infections - A systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on antibiotics for Staphylococcus aureusinfections found widespread underrepresentation of racial and ethnic minorities, researchers reported late last week in Clinical Infectious Diseases.The study, led by researchers with Duke University School of Medicine and Yale School of Public Health, reviewed 87 RCTs of antibacterial drugs used to treat S aureus infections published from 2000 to 2021 to determine the race, sex, and ethnicity of participants. The researchers then calculated participation to incidence ratios (PIRs) by dividing the percentage of study participants in each group by the percentage of the disease population in each group. Under-representation was defined as a PIR of less than 0.8. Of the 87 RCTs included, 82 (94.2%) reported participant sex, (69) 79.3% reported race, and 20 (23%) reported ethnicity data. Only 17 studies (19.5%) enrolled American Indian/Alaskan Native participants. While most RCTs had adequate or overrepresentation of female and White participants, median PIRs indicated that Asian (0.36) and Black (0.37) participants were under-represented compared with the incidence of methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA) infections in those subgroups.Analysis of factors associated with underrepresentation of Black participants identified larger study size, international sites, industry sponsorship, and phase 2/3 trials compared with phase 4 trials as factors. Black participants were nearly five times less likely to be included in phase 2/3 trials compared with phase 4 trials (odds ratio, 4.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.14 to 18.3).The study authors say the level of underrepresentation of Black and other racial and ethnic subgroups they found "calls into question the generalizability of data used to evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of antibacterial drugs for S. aureus infections," noting that Black populations experience higher rates of invasive MRSA infections compared with Whites. They say more effective strategies are needed to increase enrollment of marginalized groups.
CDC issues new antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines for invasive meningococcal disease contacts - With the number of invasive meningococcal disease cases caused by ciprofloxacin-resistant strains ofNeisseria meningitidis rising, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) yesterday published new guidelines for when other antibiotic prophylaxis (prevention) options should be considered for close contacts of patients. Published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the guidelines note that while antibiotic resistance in N meningitidis has been uncommon in the United States, 29 cases of invasive meningococcal disease caused by ciprofloxacin-resistant strains were reported from 2019 to 2021, distributed across the United States but with clusters identified in some geographic areas. Ciprofloxacin is one of the recommended first-line options for treating patients and for prophylaxis for their close contacts, who are at increased risk of acquiring the disease. Under the new guidelines, the CDC recommends other antibiotics be considered if, over a rolling 12-month period, two or more invasive meningococcal disease cases caused by ciprofloxacin-resistant strains are reported in a local catchment area and 20% or more of the invasive meningococcal disease cases in that area are caused by ciprofloxacin-resistant strains.Other recommended options for prophylaxis include rifampin, ceftriaxone, and azithromycin. The CDC says local health departments have flexibility in guidance implementation."Ongoing monitoring for antibiotic resistance of meningococcal isolates through surveillance and health care providers' reporting of prophylaxis failures will guide future updates to prophylaxis considerations and recommendations," the authors wrote.
Probe confirms imported eye drops as source of extensively drug-resistant Pseudomonas outbreak --A team led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday published the details of its investigation into the source of a multistate outbreak of carbapenemase-producing, carbapenem-resistantPseudomonas aeruginosa linked to artificial tears. The findings appeared in Clinical Infectious Diseases.The investigation by researchers with the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and several state and local health departments identified a total of 81 case-patients from 18 states in the outbreak, which stretched from May to November 2022 and was originally linked to an ophthalmology clinic in Los Angeles. Nearly a third of the patients (26) were treated at one of three healthcare facilities in three states. Four of 54 case-patients with clinical cultures died within 30 days of culture collection, 4 of 18 patients with eye infections had to have their eyes removed, and an additional 14 suffered vision loss.Overall, the use of artificial tears was reported by 61 of 70 case-patients with information, and 43 of 56 with brand information reported using Brand A—a preservative-free, over-the-counter (OTC) product manufactured in India. A 1:1 case-control study conducted with 16 case-patients identified in the largest healthcare facility cluster found that cases had five times greater odds of exposure to artificial tears than controls (crude matched odds ratio [OR], 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 22.8).Whole-genome sequencing of isolates from case-patients and opened and unopened Brand A bottles showed the isolates were genetically related, and an FDA inspection of the Brand A manufacturing site identified "multiple deficient practices" as the likely sources of contamination."The combination of epidemiology and laboratory evidence, including the close genetic relatedness of isolates from case-patients across multiple states and from unopened Brand A product, indicates Brand A artificial tears was the outbreak source," the authors wrote. They add that proposed legislative changes by the FDA that would strengthen regulatory requirements for sterile manufacturing facility inspection prior to the distribution of OTC products could help prevent similar outbreaks in the future.
New report highlights weak FDA oversight of foreign firms making medications for US market -The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) continues to struggle in overseeing more than 4,800 foreign drug manufacturers supplying medications for the US market, although it has taken action to improve its drug-safety oversight, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) told the House of Representatives' Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations yesterday."We have identified long-standing weaknesses in FDA's ability to oversee this manufacturing, an issue highlighted in our High-Risk Series since 2009," Mary Denigen-Macauley, PhD, director of GAO's healthcare team, testified.As of 2022, 58% of makers of drugs bound for the US market were located overseas, the GAO noted.In 2019, the FDA performed a record number of inspections of manufacturers in India and China, but the agency postponed most inspections after the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, according to the GAO. During this period, the FDA relied on remote inspections, document reviews, and reports from foreign regulators. But by 2022, a backlog had grown of manufacturers never inspected or not inspected within 5 years.Denigen-Macauley said that foreign inspections have always been problematic and that the FDA lacks enough staff specializing in foreign inspections."While domestic inspections have almost always been unannounced, FDA's practice of generally preannouncing foreign inspections up to 12 weeks in advance may have given establishments the opportunity to fix problems before the inspection," she said. "FDA has relied on translators provided by the foreign establishments being inspected, which investigators told us can raise questions about the accuracy of information FDA investigators collect."The FDA has agreed with and taken steps in response to GAO recommendations to evaluate remote inspection processes, create a plan to address the inspection backlog, implement pilot programs evaluating the effect of performing unannounced inspections and employing independent translators, and develop strategies to increase its foreign inspection workforce, the GAO said.
Listeria outbreak across more than 10 states linked to recalled dairy products: CDC -A listeria outbreak in 11 states has been linked to recalled dairy products, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Tuesday.The CDC said the listeria outbreak has resulted in 26 illnesses, 23 hospitalizations and two deaths. Rizo-López Foods recalled the dairy products because “they have the potential to be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes,” it said in a press release Tuesday. The products included in the recall are sour cream, cheese and yogurt sold under brand names Tio Francisco, Don Francisco, Rizo Bros, Rio Grande, Food City, El Huache, La Ordena, San Carlos, Campesino, Santa Maria, Dos Ranchitos, Casa Cardenas and 365 Whole Foods Market. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Monday the multistate outbreak linked to that strain of Listeria has extended over several years.“CDC investigated this outbreak in 2017 and 2021,” the FDA said. “Epidemiologic evidence in previous investigations identified queso fresco and other similar cheeses as a potential source of the outbreak, but there was not enough information to identify a specific brand.”The CDC reopened the probe last month amid December illnesses, and “the outbreak strain was found in a cheese sample from Rizo-López Foods,” the FDA said.Of the 22 people interviewed by the CDC, 16 indicated they had gotten ill after eating queso fresco, cotija or similar cheeses. The FDA’s investigation of Rizo-López Foods is ongoing.“Listeria is especially harmful to people who are pregnant, aged 65 or older, or have weakened immune systems,” the CDC said in its food safety alert. “This is because Listeria is more likely to spread beyond their gut to other parts of their body, resulting in a severe condition known as invasive listeriosis.”
Lab tests link company's cheese products to lengthy Listeria outbreak -Federal health officials today announced that they and state partners are investigating a multiyear, multistate Listeria monocytogenes outbreak tied to a California's company's cotija and queso fresco cheeses.In a statement, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that 26 illnesses have been reported from 11 states, with onset dates as far back as June 2015 and extending through December 2023. Of patients with available information, 23 were hospitalized, and 2 deaths were reported—one from California and the other from Texas.The CDC said it investigated the outbreak in 2017 and 2021, which pointed to the types of cheeses, but there weren't enough details to identify a specific brand. Officials reopened the investigation in January following a report of an illness in December, and routine sampling by the Hawaii Department of Health turned up a match in cheese samples from Rizo-Lopez Foods and identified the outbreak strain.Interviews with 22 sick patients found that 16 remembered eating queso fresco, cotijo, or similar cheeses, and of those who remembered specific brands, three said they had consumed Don Francisco brand cheese, which is one of the brands made by at Modesto, California-based Rizo-Lopez Foods. Also, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) inspections of Rizo-Lopez Foods identified the outbreak strain on a container where cheeses were kept.On January 11, the company recalled its aged cotija cheese following Hawaii's identification of a positive sample. Today, the company recalled all cheese and other dairy products made at its facility. Products—sold under 13 brand names—were distributed nationally and were available at deli counters. It urged consumers to check their refrigerators and freezers for the products and to dispose of them.
Trader Joe’s announces recall for 4 items over Listeria concerns -Trader Joe’s on Wednesday recalled four items containing cotija cheese over a potential listeria contamination following an announcement by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).The grocery store announced that the recalled items are chicken enchiladas verde, cilantro salad dressing, an elote chopped salad kit and the southwest salad.“If you purchased any of these products, please discard them or return them to any Trader Joe’s for a full refund,” the company said in its announcement.The recall comes from Rizo Lopez Foods Inc. The company voluntarily recalled its dairy products because they have the potential to be contaminated with listeria monocytogenes, “an organism that can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections in young children, frail or elderly people, and others with weakened immune systems.”Healthy individuals may suffer short-term symptoms such as a high fever, severe headache, stiffness, nausea, abdominal pain and diarrhea, the FDA said.A listeria contamination can cause miscarriage and stillbirth among pregnant women, the administration’s announcement also warned.The FDA advised customers to check their refrigerators for contaminated products.The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a public health alert this week for another Trader Joe’s product after it received multiple complaints that a frozen chicken pilaf product contained rocks.
Preterm births linked to 'hormone disruptor' chemicals may cost the United States billions - Daily exposure to chemicals used in the manufacture of plastic food containers and many cosmetics may be tied to nearly 56,600 preterm births in the U.S. in 2018, a new study shows. The resulting medical costs, the authors of the report say, were estimated to reach a minimum of $1.6 billion and as much as $8.1 billion over the lifetime of the children. For decades, the chemicals called phthalates have been shown to interfere with the function of certain hormones, or signaling compounds that circulate in the blood and guide much of the body's processes. Exposure to these toxins, which is believed to occur as consumer products break down and are ingested, has been linked to obesity, cancer, and fertility issues, among many other health concerns.Led by researchers at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, the new analysis of phthalate exposure in more than 5,000 American mothers has specifically linked it to increased risk of lower weight and gestational age (the period of time between conception and birth) among newborns.These risk factors, the authors say, are known to at least modestly heighten risk for infant death, interfere with academic performance, and may potentially contribute to heart disease and diabetes. According to their results, roughly 10% of all preterm births that occurred in 2018 could be linked to the chemicals."Our findings uncover the tremendous medical and financial burden of preterm births we believe are connected to phthalates, adding to the vast body of evidence that these chemicals present a serious danger to human health," said study lead author Leonardo Trasande, MD, MPP."There is a clear opportunity here to lessen these risks by either using safer plastic materials or by reducing the use of plastic altogether whenever possible," added Trasande, the Jim G. Hendrick, MD, Professor in the Department of Pediatrics at NYU Langone Health.The study, published in the journal The Lancet Planetary Health, is believed to be the largest of its kind to date and includes information from a much more racially and ethnically diverse group of women than previous studies on the topic, says Trasande.Besides examining overall exposure to the toxins, the authors also searched for distinctions between specific phthalates. In particular, they compared di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP), a chemical long used to make plastic more flexible, with several newer replacements for DEHP, which has faced heightened scrutiny in recent years.According to the findings, when grouping mothers based on the amount of DEHP metabolites in their urine, the 10% with the highest levels had a 50% increased risk of giving birth before week 37 of their pregnancy compared with the 10% with the lowest levels. Meanwhile, the risk for preterm birth was doubled for women exposed to the highest quantities of three common DEHP alternatives, di-isodecyl phthalate (DIDP), di-n-octyl phthalate (DnOP), and diisononyl phthalate (DiNP), compared with those who had little to no exposure.
Ebola vaccine cut deaths in half during DRC outbreak, study shows The VSV-EBOV vaccine has been a useful tool in battling Ebola outbreaks and is known for its high efficacy, but researchers who examined its impact on patients in Ebola treatment centers found that the vaccine also helped protect against death.The retrospective cohort study, led by researchers from Doctors without Borders and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) analyzed patients who were admitted to Ebola health facilities during the DRC's tenth outbreak, which occurred between July 2018 and April 2020. They published their findings this week in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.The outbreak, centered in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, was the world's second largest and was marked by flare-ups of civil unrest that included attacks on healthcare workers in Beni and attacks on Ebola treatment centers.A ring vaccination trial conducted in Guinea toward the end of West Africa's massive Ebola outbreak found that the vaccine—Ervebo, developed in Canada and made by Merck—was 100% effective, a bright ray of hope amid the devastating outbreaks. In outbreaks that followed, however, some breakthrough infections were reported, including as many as 25% that were documented in a trial of four Ebola antiviral treatments.For the 2,279 patients with confirmed Ebola infections who are admitted to Ebola treatment facilities in the DRC's outbreak, researchers assessed vaccination status and case-fatality rates. They also obtained cycle threshold values for nucleoprotein at admission to see of viremia levels varied by vaccination status. Of the group, 1,015 (45%) were unvaccinated.The team found that the case-fatality risk was much lower in the vaccinated group: 25% for the vaccinated group compared with 56% for the unvaccinated group. Protection against death was seen, even when researchers adjusted for Ebola-specific treatment, age, and time from symptom onset to admission.
PAHO warns about rise in Oropouche fever cases --The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) recently posted an epidemiological alert about a rise in Oropouche fever cases in parts of the Americas region that is occurring alongside a rise in infections involving dengue, which has similar symptoms.Oropouche virus is part of the orthobunyavirus family, with an incubation period of 4 to 8 days. Similar to dengue, symptom onset is sudden and typically includes fever, headache, musculoskeletal pain, chills, and sometimes, nausea. Some patients experience aseptic meningitis. Most patients recover in about a week, but for some, symptoms linger for weeks.It is mainly spread by a species of biting midge called Culicoides paraensis but can also be transmitted by certain Culex mosquitoes.Several countries in the Americas have reported Oropouche fever cases, including Brazil, Ecuador, French Guiana, Panama, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago. The virus can trigger outbreaks in both rural and urban settings.In early January, health officials from Brazil's Amazonas state issued an alert after cases were detected in December and early January. The state's public health lab evaluated 675 blood samples, which confirmed Oropouche virus in 29.5% of them. Most were linked to patients from Manaus, the state's capital, with a population of more than 2.2 million people.Between 2023 and 2024, Amazonas state recorded 1,066 Oropouche cases based on reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, nearly 700 of them from Manaus. PAHO said investigation is under way into cases reported from Acre and Roraima states. All three states are in northwestern Brazil, and Acre and Roraima states border Amazonas state.
Prior Zika infection increases risk of subsequent severe dengue and hospitalization, study concludes - A study led by Brazilian researchers shows that people who have had the Zika virus run a higher risk of subsequently having severe dengue and being hospitalized. The finding is highly relevant to the development of a Zika vaccine. According to the scientific literature, a second infection by any of the four known dengue serotypes is known to be typically more severe than the first, but until now no correlation between this fact and the occurrence of other diseases had been investigated. The study is published in the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. The mechanism that exacerbates dengue infection following a case of Zika differs from that of two consecutive infections by the dengue virus, the authors conclude. The viral load is higher in the second dengue episode, with high levels of inflammatory cytokines not seen in Zika. Detection of other markers suggested that the increase in severity may be due to activation of T cells, key parts of the immune system that help produce antibodies, in a pathogenic immune response that has been termed the "original antigenic sin." The process involves so-called T-cell memory, a response in which T cells produced during a previous infection stimulate the production of more T cells to combat a new infection. Because these new cells are not specific to the virus, they trigger an excessive release of inflammatory cytokines, which attack the organism's proteins and tissues, potentially leading to hemorrhage. The researchers analyzed samples from 1,043 laboratory-confirmed dengue patients, identifying those with prior Zika and dengue infections. The cases occurred in 2019 in São José do Rio Preto, a large city in São Paulo state, Brazil, considered hyperendemic for dengue since more than 70% of the population has had the disease. Its climate and geography favor the circulation of arboviruses throughout the year. Dengue epidemics occurred there in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019, with a record number of cases involving serotype 2. "We concluded that a prior dengue infection was not a risk factor for severity, probably because the patients were already into their third or fourth infection. Prior Zika infection, however, was important and an aggravating factor in a second dengue episode. This led us to suggest novel mechanisms and renew our knowledge of the natural history of the disease," Cássia Fernanda Estofolete, an infectious disease specialist at the São José do Rio Preto Medical School (FAMERP) and first author of the article, told Agência FAPESP. "Our findings confirmed the results of a previous study involving children who had Zika in Nicaragua. Later, when they had dengue, the risk of severity increased. We showed the same thing [risk of severe dengue increased by prior Zika or dengue] for adults in Brazil. We also showed that ADE [antibody-dependent enhancement, in which—instead of providing protection—antibodies enhance viral entry into host cells and can exacerbate the disease] is non-classical," said corresponding author Maurício Lacerda Nogueira.
Risk of death higher for nearly 3 months after chikungunya, data suggest -Chikungunya virus infection poses an increased risk of death for nearly 3 months after illness onset, including from cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and diabetes, data from 2015 to 2018 in Brazil suggest. Yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, researchers from Brazil and the United Kingdom describe how they linked national databases on social programs, notifiable diseases, and death for chikungunya cases and deaths.For the matched cohort study, chikungunya patients in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort diagnosed from January 2015 to Dec 2018 were matched with unexposed participants. The team also conducted a self-controlled case series that included all chikungunya deaths, with patients acting as their own controls according to study periods relative to date of diagnosis. Follow-up was 2 years.Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne illness that causes severe muscle and joint pain, high fever, headache, rash, fatigue, nausea, and eye redness, and it can lead to death. First identified in 1952 in Tanzania, it has now been found in nearly 40 countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas."Previous studies have assessed the risk factors for severe versus mild chikungunya virus disease," the study authors wrote. "However, the risk of death following chikungunya virus disease compared with the risk of death in individuals without the disease remains unexplored." The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of death within 7 days of symptom onset among the 143,787 matched cohort participants was 8.40 relative to unexposed participants, falling to 2.26 at 57 to 84 days, 1.05 at days 85 to 168, and about 1.00 (with wide confidence intervals) thereafter.The IRRs of death within 28 days of illness onset were 2.73 for cerebrovascular disease, 8.43 for diabetes, and 2.38 for ischemic heart disease, with no evidence of elevated risk at days 85 to 168.A total of 1,933 patients in the case series who died of chikungunya were included in the case series. The IRR of all-cause natural death within 7 days of chikungunya diagnosis was 8.75, declining to 1.59 at 57 to 84 days and 1.09 at 85 to 168 days.
- Amid a rising threat of vector-borne illnesses due to multiple factors, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) this week published a national strategy to prevent and control the diseases in humans. The strategy was developed by a working group with contributions from 17 federal agencies, HHS said in a press release. Development of the strategy was directed by the 2019 Kay Hagan Tick Act—named after the US Senator who died of complications from a tick-borne illness. Along with identifying challenges and opportunities for improving control of vector-borne threats, the plan details an approach for developing new diagnostics, drugs, and treatments. The CDC has said vector-borne illnesses cases—caused by biting insects like mosquitoes and arachnids like ticks— have doubled in the past two decades because of shifting land-use patterns, increased global travel and trade, and climate change. It has also documented a geographic expansion of the vectors and a growing number of pathogens spread by vectors. "Yet only one vaccine is available to protect people against almost 20 domestic threats," HHS said.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) today announced that Uruguay has informed it of a human Western equine encephalitis (WEE) case, its first in than more than a decade. The detection follows recent cases in Argentina, which in December confirmed its first infection in more than 20 years. Both countries have reported several outbreaks in horses, which can also contract the disease from mosquitoes that carry the virus. Uruguay's case involves a 42-year-old man from a rural part of San Jose department in the south. His symptoms began in early January. He was hospitalized in intensive care for a few days but has since recovered. Investigators found that he lives in an area with known WEE circulation and the country's highest incidence of cases in horses, though he did not have contact with the animals. Uruguay has reported a rise in equine WEE outbreaks since November 2023.
- Brazilian health officials have notified the WHO about a variant H1N1 (H1N1v) swine flu case in a man from Toledo in Parana state. According to a WHO notification, the man has underlying medical conditions. He was hospitalized on December 16, 2023. He had no contact with pigs or sick people, and investigators found no other related illnesses among his contacts. The WHO said the case is likely sporadic and poses a low risk of community spread. Genetic analysis found that the virus from the man's sample is very similar to H1N1v viruses from recent human cases in Parana state in recent years, which the WHO said might signal ongoing spread in animals. Brazil has reported sporadic cases involving variant flu strains, but with no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The virus has been sent to the CDC for further assessment.
Quick takes: New CDC Asia office, H1N1v flu case in Spain, avian flu in Laos | CIDRAP
- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today announced the opening of its new East Asia and Pacific regional office in Tokyo, which is designed to strengthen the US government's global health impact through collaboration with Japan, partner countries, and regional groups to prevent, detect, and respond to health threats.
- Testing in Spain have identified variant H1N1 swine flu in a man from Catalonia who works on a pig farm, according to the latest weekly communicable disease report from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). His symptoms began in late November, and he sought outpatient care three times over the following 3 weeks. On December 12, tests on an oropharyngeal sample revealed an unsubtypable influenza A virus, which was identified by Catalonia's regional lab as swine influenza H1N1. The patient has fully recovered, and no other cases have been detected. The sample was sent for confirmation to the National Institute of Microbiology, and the isolate will be shared with the World Health Organization (WHO) collaborating center. Human infections with swine flu viruses occur sporadically and are usually mild. The ECDC said cases in people who have contact with pigs isn't surprising, but health officials track contacts to monitor any possible onward spread.
- Animal health officials in Laos have temporarily closed a large live-bird market in Vientiane, the country's capital and largest city, owing to detections of H5N1 and H9N2 avian flu in poultry. An agriculture ministry statement detailing the detections and closure was translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. Samples that tested positive were from chickens, ducks, and their environments. Another group of samples from sick birds yielded H5N1 and H9N2 subtypes. Meanwhile, the WHO and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization late last week warned of a higher risk to humans during preparations and travel for Lunar New Year celebrations because of ongoing reports of avian flu detections in the Asian region's wild birds and poultry. The groups urged people to limit their exposure to poultry and their environments and encouraged health departments to boost their surveillance, especially in high-risk areas.
Cambodia reports new fatal H5N1 avian flu case -- On the heels of two human H5N1 avian flu cases in Cambodia in January, the country has reported a third 2024 case, which involves a 9-year-old boy who died from his infection, according to a health ministry statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog.The boy is from Kratie province in the northeastern part of the country. The cases announced last month were in two different provinces, Prey Veng and Siem Reap.Like the other cases, investigators found that poultry had died at the patient's home. Also, the ministry said the birds that died were eaten.Cambodia has now reported nine H5N1 cases since 2023, part of a resurgence that follows a decade long lapse in cases.It's not yet known what H5N1 clade sickened the boy, but genetic analysis of samples from the earlier recent cases found that the virus belongs to an older H5N1 clade (2.3.2.1c) that circulates in poultry in some Asian countries, not the newer one (2.3.4.4b) currently circulating in multiple world regions.Yesterday the World Health Organization (WHO) updated its risk assessment on H5N1 in Cambodia, adding more details about the year's first two cases. It said though the risk to the general population remains low, sporadic human infections will likely continue in rural Cambodia and other areas where the virus still circulates in poultry.
First CWD case detected in Claiborne County, Mississippi - The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Parks confirmed the first case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Claiborne County yesterday. The agency's CWD dashboard shows that it was one of six new detections in the state. The Claiborne County case was identified west of Port Gibson in the southwest part of the state, about 3 miles from the Mississippi River and 10 miles from CWD-positive Tensas Parish, Louisiana. The other new CWD detections in Mississippi were in DeSoto, Benton, and Marshall counties. The Natchez Democrat reports that a Mississippi State University test found CWD prions (misfolded proteins) in a Claiborne County scrape, or area that bucks defoliate by pawing, in June. CWD is a fatal prion disease similar to bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad cow" disease) that affects deer and other cervids. The disease can spread among animals through direct contact or from exposure to prion-infected saliva, blood, feces, or urine.
Possibility of Wildlife-to-Human Crossover Heightens Concern About Chronic Wasting Disease - Each fall, millions of hunters across North America make their way into forests and grasslands to kill deer. Over the winter, people chow down on the venison steaks, sausage, and burgers made from the animals.These hunters, however, are not just on the front lines of an American tradition. Infectious disease researchers say they are also on the front lines of what could be a serious threat to public health: chronic wasting disease.The neurological disease, which is contagious, rapidly spreading, and always fatal, is caused by misfolded proteins called prions. It currently is known to infect only members of the cervid family — elk, deer, reindeer, caribou, and moose.Animal disease scientists are alarmed about the rapid spread of CWD in deer. Recent research shows that the barrier to a spillover into humans is less formidable than previously believed and that the prions causing the disease may be evolving to become more able to infect humans.A response to the threat is ramping up. In 2023, a coalition of researchers began “working on a major initiative, bringing together 68 different global experts on various aspects of CWD to really look at what are the challenges ahead should we see a spillover into humans and food production,” said Michael Osterholm, an expert in infectious disease at the University of Minnesota and a leading authority on CWD.“The bottom-line message is we are quite unprepared,” Osterholm said. “If we saw a spillover right now, we would be in free fall.There are no contingency plans for what to do or how to follow up.”The team of experts is planning for a potential outbreak, focusing on public health surveillance, lab capacity, prion disease diagnostics, surveillance of livestock and wildlife, risk communication, and education and outreach.Despite the concern, tens of thousands of infected animals have been eaten by people in recent years, yet there have been no known human cases of the disease.
Babies born in Louisiana’s ‘Cancer Alley’ record lower birth weight, more preterm births – Newborns living in the worst-polluted areas of Louisiana, including an 85-mile industrial corridor known as “Cancer Alley”, experience low birth weights at more than three times the national average, according to data cited in a report released Thursday. The rate of preterm births there is also twice the national average, researchers found.In parts of Louisiana near fossil fuel and petrochemical plants, low birth weight rates reached 27% and preterm birth rates 25%, according to research from Tulane University that was published in a Human Rights Watch report on Thursday. The full paper linking pollution and reproductive health is currently under peer review for publication in the journal Environmental Research: Health.“The level of human health crisis is identifiable and preventable,” said Antonia Juhasz, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch and the report’s lead author. Juhasz interviewed dozens of residents of Louisiana’s petrochemical region known as Cancer Alley, a string of predominantly Black communities between Baton Rouge and New Orleans that is home to more than 200 petrochemical plants. The region has one of the highest pollution-related cancer rates in the country.Residents interviewed for the report described a host of ailments, including breast, prostate and liver cancers, in addition to several accounts of reproductive problems including preterm births, miscarriage and stillbirths.The region’s high cancer rates are well-documented, but experts said the new information on birth outcomes was alarming.“When you cluster all the pollution together, you can see the most extreme [health] consequences,” said Kimberly Terrell, the director of community engagement at Tulane’s environmental law clinic and one of the forthcoming report’s authors. “Cancer Alley is a place where those consequences can’t be ignored.”Low birth weight and preterm birth can carry several long-term health problems, including respiratory illnesses like asthma, as well as behavioral and cognitive issues.
Blue states want EPA to tighten lead pipe proposal -Attorneys representing 13 blue states and Washington, D.C., expressed concern to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that its rule “does too little to protect public health generally and specifically to address the disparate impacts of lead-contaminated drinking water on underserved communities.”They pointed to a carve-out that allows for cities with large numbers of lead water lines to exceed the proposal’s general 10-year time frame for removing lead pipes.They wrote that under the rule, its lead service line replacements could take 44.6 years in Chicago and 33.1 years in Houston.The attorneys wrote that after the first decade, the maximum number of lead lines that need to be replaced should double.
Defense Department to again target ‘forever chemicals’ contamination near Michigan military base — The U.S. Department of Defense plans to install two more groundwater treatment systems at a former Michigan military base to control contamination from so-called forever chemicals, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s office announced Friday. Environmentalists say the systems will help prevent PFAS from spreading into the Clarks Marsh area and the Au Sable River near the former Wurtsmith Air Force Base in Oscoda on the shores of Lake Huron. The base closed in 1993 as part of a base realignment. PFAS, an abbreviation for perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are compounds that don’t degrade in the environment. They’re linked to a host of health issues, including low birthweight and kidney cancer. The chemicals are found in a wide range of products, including nonstick cookware, food packaging and firefighting foam that airports use to combat fires resulting from plane crashes.Pentagon documents show at least 385 military bases nationwide are contaminated with PFAS, mostly from firefighting foam used during training.DOD records released in 2021 showed PFAS had been detected in groundwater around Wurtsmith at levels up to 213,000 parts per trillion. Federal regulators in March proposed limits of 4 parts per trillion in drinking water. State officials have warned people not to eat fish, venison or small game caught in and around Clarks March and parts of the Au Sable and to avoid contact with all surface water and shoreline foam in Oscoda.The Department of Defense announced in August that it would install two groundwater treatment systems near the base. The two new systems would be in addition to those systems. Tony Spaniola, co-chair of the Great Lakes PFAS Action Network, has pushed the Pentagon to clean up PFAS contamination around Wurtsmith since he was notified in 2016 that water near his Oscoda cabin wasn’t safe to drink. In a statement in Slotkin’s news release, he called the additional systems “a landmark moment.” The effort should serve as a model for cleanup at other contaminated military installations, he said.
Skiers are spreading PFAS ‘forever chemicals’ around the world’s mountains — A new study reveals the presence of hazardous PFAS chemicals in the soils of ski mountains around the world, a discovery that has significant implications for both the environment and public health. This disturbing research was conducted by The James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen and the University of Graz, unveiling a concerning environmental issue plaguing popular skiing destinations.PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a group of human-made chemicals known for their persistence in the environment and in human bodies, hence their nickname “forever chemicals.” These substances, commonly found in ski wax, have been detected in alarmingly high concentrations in the soils of family-friendly skiing areas. The levels measured starkly contrast with those in non-skiing regions, highlighting the direct impact of skiing activities on environmental contamination. The revelation of PFAS in ski mountains comes in the wake of a recent ban on PFAS-containing ski waxes in professional skiing due to their association with serious health issues such as cancer, fertility problems, and liver damage. This study underscores the urgency of this ban. Despite the prohibition, Müller notes, “Even where there is no skiing, there are still small detections because of how widely this chemical has now spread in the environment.” The research team examined about 30 PFAS compounds expected in ski wax and tested six commercially available waxes bought before the ban. Five of these contained fluorinated compounds, reflecting the widespread use of PFAS in ski products. The enforcement of the ban on PFAS waxes has been challenging. International skiing bodies only recently started implementing it in events, owing to the time required to develop effective testing methods.
A North Carolina PFAS factory claims its emissions fell by 99.99%. A Guardian test reveals otherwise — Downwind from chemical giant Chemours’ PFAS manufacturing plant in North Carolina, Jamie White’s life is a series of unpleasant negotiations.She fears the plant’s toxic “forever chemicals” are in the air she breathes and the rain replenishing her well. She suffers from a thyroid disorder – an issue linked to PFAS exposure.Protecting herself and her family means sacrifice: should she let her grandkids play outdoors on her small farm and ride the horse, or keep them indoors? Should she eat potentially contaminated vegetables, or give up gardening? “It’s awful, but there’s nothing we can do,” said White, who has lived on her small farm for 15 years. But residents should be safe, Chemours and state regulators claim. A 2019 stateconsent order legally requires Chemours to rein in pollution from its Fayetteville Works plant and reduce air emissions by at least 99%. The mandate prompted Chemours to invest $100m on air emission controls, including a thermal oxidizer it bills as “world class” technology allegedly capable of destroying PFAS, which are widely considered impossible to eliminate on an industrial scale. Chemours made the thermal oxidizer the centerpiece of an ongoing,controversial public relations campaign launched in early 2022. The new technology, the company claims, has reduced PFAS air emissions by “greater than 99.999-plus percent”. State regulators have largely concurred, stating PFAS emissions have been reduced by at least 99%, suggesting the air is safe for residents like White. Guardian-commissioned testing of air quality outside the plant, however, finds that may not be true. Using a more comprehensive test than those used by state regulators, the Guardian found PFAS levels outside the plant far above those detected and reported as evidence of Chemours’ success – as much as 30 times higher. Researchers fear the air emissions contribute significantly to widespread PFAS contamination of the region’s water and food supplies. The Guardian collected air samples at two sites monitored by the North Carolina department of environmental quality (DEQ). Chemours’ tests only check for a very limited number of PFAS, while the Guardian commissioned a test that looks for markers of all the chemicals. The findings “clearly raise questions about emissions of compounds not targeted by [state regulators],” said Detlef Knappe, a professor of environmental engineering at North Carolina State University who has studied Chemours’ PFAS pollution and tested some of the Guardian’s samples.
Bill to allow industry use of some toxic PFAS passes Indiana House - A bill, HB 1399, that would change the definition of toxic PFAS to exclude chemicals Indiana manufacturers want to continue using passed the House on Tuesday.PFAS are used to make a variety of nonstick, waterproof and stain-resistant products. Among other things, exposure to the chemicals has been linked to kidney cancer, problems with the immune system and developmental issues in children.The Indiana Manufacturers Association has said there aren’t good alternatives for PFAS in manufacturing essential items like medical devices and certain drugs.An amendment by Rep. Maureen Bauer (D-South Bend) would have made exceptions for those two uses while keeping the definition of PFAS the same — but it failed. The bill's author, Rep. Shane Lindauer (R-Jasper), said the bill is written in a way so lawmakers don't have to add exceptions to the law every year. "The reason we're doing chemistries is so we don't have to come back here and deal with specific devices all the time," he said.
Minnesota reducing limit on PFAS Chemicals that can be found in water before it is considered dangerous —-- Minnesota is reducing the limit of PFAS Chemicals, also called forever chemicals, found in water before they are deemed dangerous to consume.It is the first time the guidelines are being revised since their creation. Data shows the chemicals can cause cancer in humans. Tom Higgins, a hydrogeologist with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, says a project to create healthier drinking water can cost upwards of a billion dollars.
Powerful atmospheric river triggers state of emergency in Southern California, rare Level 4 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall - (videos) An intense atmospheric river event hit California on Sunday, February 4, 2024, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom to declare a state of emergency in eight counties due to the potential for “life-threatening” flooding, mudslides, and widespread power outages. The National Weather Service warns of significant rainfall, powerful winds, and heavy snowfall continuing over the next few days. An intense, slow-moving atmospheric river that arrived in California on Sunday, February 4, 2024, has unleashed a series of severe weather phenomena across the state, including “life-threatening” flooding, mudslides, and widespread power outages. This event has prompted Governor Gavin Newsom to declare a state of emergency in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Oxnard has highlighted the situation as one of the most dramatic weather days in recent memory, with a rare Level 4 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall announced for parts of Southern California, including Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, and Oxnard. This warning predicts rainfall rates of up to 25 mm (1 inch) per hour, resulting in total rainfall amounts of 76 to 152 mm (3 to 6 inches) across the affected areas. YouTube video YouTube video The situation has led to significant disruptions, including the closure of Santa Barbara Airport due to flooding and the rescue of 19 people off Long Beach after their boat’s mast broke in high winds. In Northern California, fallen trees and power lines have caused injuries and power outages, with over 800 000 customers currently without electricity. The weather conditions have also impacted travel, with the NWS issuing its first-ever hurricane-force wind warning for San Francisco, forecasting winds of 64 to 97 km/h (40 to 60 mph) with gusts up to 153 km/h (95 mph) in the foothills and mountains. This has made travel in the mountains, particularly above elevations of 1 500 to 1 800 meters (5 000 to 6 000 feet), near impossible due to heavy snowfall and whiteout conditions. School closures, flight delays, and the cancellation of sporting events, including NASCAR and PGA events, were reported. Looking ahead, the NWS anticipates continued heavy rain, strong winds, and significant snowfall across much of central and southern California, with ongoing risks of flash flooding and landslides. The atmospheric river is expected to sag southward, concentrating heavy to excessive rainfall over southern California and the southern Sierra Nevada from Monday night into Tuesday, with potential areal totals of 25 to 76 mm (1 to 3 inches) of rain, and isolated higher amounts in Los Angeles and Orange Counties.
State of emergency declared for Southern California as atmospheric river leads to flash floods, mudslides - Millions of Southern Californians are facing the onslaught of an “atmospheric river” this week of extraordinarily high levels of winds and rain. According to meteorologists, half a year’s worth of rain has already fallen in the area over the course of a five-day period. People suffering from homelessness set large tents next to the Emmanuel Baptist Rescue Mission on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024, in Los Angeles. A storm of historic proportions dumped a record amount of rain over parts of Los Angeles on Monday, sending mud and boulders down hillsides dotted with multimillion-dollar homes. In contrast, people living in homeless encampments in many parts of the city scrambled for safety. [AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes] This week’s rainfall thus far has created a wave of flooding, mudslides and environmental hazards. Three deaths have been reported so far, and this number is expected to rise. The latest atmospheric river is also referred to as an example of the “Pineapple Express,” a recurring atmospheric river bringing moisture from the tropics near Hawaii to the US West Coast. Such regular meteorological phenomena are being drastically intensified through the influence of man-made climate change, which has been caused by the unrestrained emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in the pursuit of profit since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, declared a belated state of emergency Sunday in the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura. This was despite the fact that meteorologists had warned of the approaching weather pattern several weeks prior. The influx of wet weather has proven especially dangerous for fire-prone areas, where previous wildfires have made the environment fertile for flooding and mudslides which have encased residential homes, vehicles and other property in mud and water, leaving the occupants without a home and very little means to assess and fix the damage. Speaking on the unfolding disaster, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said, “Just like our preparations for tropical storm Hilary paid off in August, I am confident we will weather this storm too because once again the city is prepared, we are sharing information, and I’m seeing Angelenos take action to make common sense preparations. “If you are not home already, please get home and stay home. Stay off the roads. Make tonight a Sunday night dinner or family game night. Stay informed.” Such precautions, however, were not to be extended to the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), the nation’s second largest. Only two of the district’s 900 campuses were closed Monday amid the severe weather. According to the Los Angeles Times, school buses were 30 minutes late on average with a power outage hitting one campus and lost phone service at four others. According to LAUSD Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, classes would continue at full capacity on Tuesday regardless of any additional rainfall. As of this writing, the National Weather Service predicts heavy rains throughout Monday night, clearing mid-morning Tuesday. The largest impact thus far from the heavy rainfall has been a series of mudslides primarily in the numerous hillside communities found throughout the Southern California area. They have already caused life-altering damage to homes and property. On Sunday night, several residents living in the Beverly Crest, Beverly Glen, Studio City, Baldwin Hills, La Habra and Sherman Oaks areas of Los Angeles reported that the ground gave way, sending mud and other debris into their homes and burying their vehicles in a matter of seconds. Several homes have been red tagged and deemed “uninhabitable” by local fire departments and city officials, with other residential areas being evacuated due to the danger that the continuing rain poses around the area. The damage to homes and property, as well as the danger of physical injury or death, is not only limited to the Los Angeles area, as such events have become commonplace across the West Coast during the past few days.
The Scale Of California's Pineapple Express Phenomenon -- A second atmospheric river rainstorm in a week is moving across California and has been causing landslides, downpours and high winds of hurricane strengths that toppled trees in some locations. Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports that conditions could persist until mid-week as the storm is now projected to move across the state slower than originally expected. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles warned that the storm was "dangerous" and posed "major risks to life and property." The service's office in San Diego meanwhile predicted the potential of flooding in Los Angeles and "locally catastrophic" flooding in Orange County as amounts of rain typical for a whole month could come down in just the span of days. The risk of excessive rain in Southern California was put at a 4 out of 4. More than half a million Californians were already without power early Monday due to wind damage. Some residents in Santa Barbara, Los Angeles and San José are currently under evacuation orders, according to CNN. The phenomenon of atmospheric rivers is fed by the El Niño conditions that have taken over the climate of the Americas again since mid-2023. Atmospheric rivers are plumes of moisture that extend from the tropics all the way to more Northern reaches and are made possible by El Niño-related changes in the jet stream air currents that circle the globe. Normally, these jet streams travel in a westerly directions but under certain conditions, plumes can escape and travel long distances, bringing tropical rains to more moderate locales. An atmospheric river that has been reoccurring is the one originating from the Pacific near Hawaii all the way to California - dubbed the Pineapple Express because of the fruit being a symbol of the U.S. island chain. The latest Pineapple Express pummeling California was rated moderate to strong - a level 2-3 out of 5 possible - by the center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California San Diego. Partially forecast as of early Monday, the current storm’s rating could increase since the system is now expected to move more slowly and duration is one of two levels the storms are rated on. The current weather phenomenon was initially expected to continue for around 30 hours into early Tuesday while carrying around half the moisture intensity of the most exceptional scenario still included in the rating system. Thursday's system that already brought heavy rains as well as snowfall to the state was rated similarly, but opposed to Monday's forecast was a little shorter, yet a little more moisture intense at a level 3 out of 5 on the rating scale.
San Francisco exceeds seasonal rain totals, another atmospheric river and extremely dangerous winds approaching California, U.S. - Severe storms swept through California on Thursday, February 1, 2024, causing widespread flooding, power outages, and fallen trees. The first of two storms, part of strong atmospheric river systems, hit the San Francisco Bay Area before moving south towards Los Angeles, delivering over 100 mm (4 inches) of rain in some areas. Officials warn of a “significant threat” from an even larger storm expected over the weekend, with the potential for excessive rain, heavy snow, and strong winds across the state through Tuesday, February 7. The severe weather affecting California began with a fast-moving storm on Thursday, February 1, 2024, that brought heavy rain and gusty winds, particularly impacting the San Francisco Bay Area before proceeding southward. The Marin Headlands and coastal mounts north of the Bay Area received more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rainfall, while San Francisco itself saw 60 mm (2.35 inches) of rain, pushing the city’s seasonal totals above average. This wet weather led to submerged streets, traffic hazards, and the suspension of San Francisco’s cable car services as a precaution. The northern city of Eureka in Humboldt County experienced coastal flooding, recording more than 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall, a daily record, alongside scattered power outages. As the storm system advanced towards southern California, it brought flash flooding to areas like southern Los Angeles County and Seal Beach, with reports of cars submerged under water and freeway closures. The Orange County Fire Authority conducted several rescues due to the storm, including a dramatic rescue from a storm channel in Costa Mesa and a man stranded on an island in the Santa Ana riverbed. The weather also affected higher elevations, bringing 300 – 360 mm (12 – 14 inches) of snow to the Mammoth Mountain ski resort in the Sierra Nevada, a crucial development for the state’s snowpack. atmospheric river 2320utc on february 3 2024 goes-west satellite image Image credit: NOAA/GOES-West, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers. Acquired at 23:20 UTC on February 3, 2024 The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued warnings of an even more powerful storm arriving on Sunday, February 4, expected to bring excessive rain, flooding threats, heavy mountain snow, and strong winds across California until Tuesday, February 7. Additionally, a brief tornado and waterspouts are possible along the central California coast Sunday. This upcoming storm, part of the “Pineapple Express” atmospheric river, poses a significant risk of flash flooding in Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties, with the NWS urging residents to heed emergency management warnings and avoid driving through flooded roadways. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for portions of the central California coast from the Bay Area down through Big Sur. Conditions worsen on Sunday as the low pressure system arrives along the California coast. There is a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4) over portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties where the combination of high moisture, instability and lift (cold front) will produce a dangerous Flash Flooding situation. “It’s strongly recommended that people: heed warnings from emergency management personnel, the local forecast office guidance and avoid driving through flooded roadways, NWS forecaster Kebede said. Broader Moderate (level 3/4) and Slight Risk areas will encompass most of the central and southern coast as well as upslope areas of the Sierra Nevada and parts of the Central Valley. This moisture plume will spread east into the Sierra, leading to an extremely impactful heavy snow event over the mountains and actually spilling over into portions of the western Great Basin. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the aforementioned areas where 1.2 – 1.8+ m (4 – 6 feet) of snow is probable. High winds will also be a significant issue with whipping rain in the low elevations and blowing snow likely in the Sierra on Sunday. The focus for heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms shift into southern California Sunday night into Monday, February 5 as the upper low continues to direct energy and moisture into the region beneath a persistently strong jet streak. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego and Riverside Counties where the strong cold front will act as a focus for potential flash flooding. The waters from the Big Sur Coast to 110 km (70 miles) out have been upgraded to Hurricane Force Wind Warnings for winds 65 – 102 km/h (40 – 64 mph) with gusts up to 150 km/h (92 mph). Additionally, rapid rises in main stem rivers are expected with this new system with some rivers now anticipated to reach flood stage as early as Sunday morning (LT). “Please be sure to stay informed and weather aware,” NWS Bay Area office meteorologists said.
Over 300 mudslides in California as deadly storm damage may reach $11 billion --A deadly and extreme atmospheric river overtook California Saturday and remained over the southern part of the state through Tuesday. The storm caused record rainfall, heavy snow and high winds, which knocked out power to nearly a million people while snarling travel.More than 300 mudslides or debris flows were reported and at least three people were killed by falling trees. On Sunday, Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for eight California counties, including Los Angeles and San Diego.AccuWeather estimates the preliminary total damage and economic loss from the intense storms and record rainfall in California this week will be between $9 billion and $11 billion. The storm is still impacting the most heavily populated part of the state and has caused damage to homes and businesses in highly developed and well-populated areas, including some of the most expensive neighborhoods in the state. This is a preliminary estimate, as the storm effects are continuing to be felt and some areas of the state have not yet reported complete information about damage, injuries, and other impacts.On Sunday and Monday, downtown Los Angeles recorded 7.03 inches of rain -- half of their historical average total. It was the highest two-day rainfall ever recorded in February and the third-wettest two days since records began nearly 150 years ago.Northwest of downtown, several stations reported more than a foot of rain as of Tuesday morning.Hurricane-force winds plagued the mountains, including the 10,820-foot peak of Ward Mountain, where a gust of 162 mph was clocked. In 2017, Ward Mountain set the state wind gust record of 199 mph. Other impressive wind gusts reported on Sunday included 148 mph at Palisades Tahoe and 125 mph at Mammoth Mountain.In the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, 3-6 feet of snow was expected, threatening road closures, avalanches and blizzard conditions.At lower elevations, winds were not as extreme but were unusually high across a wide area, felling trees and knocking out power to nearly 900,000 customers Sunday evening, according to PowerOutage.US.San Francisco airport reported 67-mph gusts while Sacramento topped out at 59 mph.As of Tuesday morning, heavy rain was still falling from San Diego to Bakersfield. Joseph Bauer, AccuWeather Meteorologist says "Rain can linger today across the Inland Empire down through Orange and San Diego counties. These areas will likely see additional flooding impacts through the day." This afternoon, pockets of thunderstorms can develop, which could bring additional locally heavy rainfall, Bauer said. An additional disturbance is expected to arrive Wednesday night. With a moist, onshore flow expected through that time, we expect rain showers to persist into midweek. Any additional rain could aggravate flooding conditions. Dry weather is likely by Friday as high pressure builds offshore.As the California atmospheric river storm pivots into the southwestern United States midweek, heavy rain will raise the risk of flash flooding as well as unload heavy mountain snow on the region.
Storm drenches California, bringing tornado warning, hundreds of mudslides A second atmospheric river within days pelted California with hurricane-force winds, bringing tornado warnings and hundreds of mudslides.The Los Angeles area experienced one of the wettest storms in history, between 6 and 12 inches, that unleashed nearly 400 mudslides, and officials warned that the threat was not yet over, The Associated Press (AP) reported.“An end is in sight, but not until Thu or Fri. Do not let the break Wednesday morning misguide you — more rain and mountain snow coming Wednesday afternoon and night,” the Los Angeles National Weather Service posted online.The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning over San Diego County, a rare move that forecasters quickly canceled, as the storm no longer appeared to be capable of creating a tornado.Crews in the Los Angeles area begun the process of assessing the storm impacts and responding to reported damages. Mayor Karen Bass said every city department was mobilized to support locals with the resources they need as they deal with damage to homes as the storm continues.The rains brought widespread flooding and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands of people. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) declared a state of emergency for eight counties in the southern part of the state due to the storm.Forecasters are warning that life-threatening flash flooding may occur. They are asking residents to stay off the roads until road conditions improve.So far, crews have responded to 383 mudslides. Seven buildings have been deemed uninhabitable, and another 10 had residents gather belongings but leave the area because of the damage, the AP reported.Bass said it’s not known how many homes have been destroyed but said the city’s emergency shelters were full.A man died Monday after his truck went down an embankment and filled with water about 80 miles east of Los Angeles. Another man died after the car he was in crashed into a tow truck. Four people were killed in Northern California after the strong winds toppled trees, the AP reported.Many people have been rescued from the fast-moving water in parts of Southern California.
Los Angeles records 475 mudslides during historic storm that has drenched Southern California (AP) — One of the wettest storms in Southern California history unleashed at least 475 mudslides in the Los Angeles area after dumping more than half the amount of rainfall the city typically gets in a season in just two days, and officials warned Tuesday that the threat was not over yet.“Our hillsides are already saturated. So even not-very-heavy rains could still lead to additional mudslides,” Mayor Karen Bass said during an evening news conference. “Even when the rain stops, the ground may continue to shift.”Officials expressed relief that the storm hadn't yet killed anyone or caused a major catastrophe in Los Angeles despite its size and intensity, with nearly 400 trees toppling. There were seven deaths reported elsewhere, including several people crushed by fallen trees in Northern California. Someone trying to enter the United States was swept up by a swollen Tijuana River channel and died early Tuesday as the California-Mexico border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.Though the rain was tapering off, forecasters extended a flood watch through early Wednesday, warning the ground was too filled with water to hold much more after back-to-back atmospheric rivers walloped California in less than a week. Another heavy burst of rain is expected Wednesday evening before the region begins to dry out, said Tyler Kranz, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Bass said the city is now looking toward recovery and will seek federal aid including emergency vouchers for homeless people in shelters. It may see if it can qualify for FEMA money to help people whose homes were damaged in hillside communities where insurance companies won’t cover. How many they are could take a while to count. As of Tuesday, seven buildings had been deemed uninhabitable, officials said. Another 10 buildings were yellow-tagged, meaning residents could go back to get their belongings but could not stay there because of the damage. “Hopefully no more homes will be damaged, but it’s too early to tell,” Bass said. “Eight feet of mud is pressed up against my window that is no longer there,” Dion Peronneau said. “They put up boards to make sure no more mud can come in.” Earlier Tuesday the National Weather Service issued a rare tornado warning for San Diego County. The warning was quickly cancelled, however, with forecasters explaining that the storm no longer appeared capable of producing a twister even if it briefly turned some San Diego streets into rivers.Four people were killed in Northern California after the storm came ashore over the weekend with strong winds that toppled trees. They included a 63-year-old woman who was found dead Tuesday under a large tree in her backyard in Fair Oaks, Sacramento County officials reported.The California Highway Patrol said a 69-year-old man died Monday after his truck went down an embankment and filled with water in Yucaipa, about 80 miles (128 kilometers) east of Los Angeles. Another accident in nearby Fontana killed a 23-year-old man after the car he was in crashed into a tow truck in the rain, the agency said.The storm smashed or approached many rain and wind records across the state, with downtown Los Angeles recording its third-wettest two-day stretch since recordkeeping began in the 1870s. Between 6 and 12 inches (15.2 and 30.5 centimeters) of rain fell over the Los Angeles area.All the water brought one silver lining: helping to boost often-strained water supplies, just two years after nearly all California was plagued by a devastating drought. Marty Adams, general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said more than 1 billion gallons of rain were captured for groundwater and local supplies.This latest storms follow a string of atmospheric rivers that pummeled the state last year, leading to at least 20 deaths.
Wisconsin’s first recorded February tornado hits south of capital --A rare winter tornado churned through southern Wisconsin on Thursday, snapping power poles, downing large trees and damaging homes. It was the state’s first recorded tornado in the month of February, according to Taylor Patterson, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Milwaukee. Records date back to 1948.“This is a very unusual time of year for Wisconsin to be getting tornadoes,” Patterson said. “We were also unusually warm yesterday.”Several thunderstorms also traveled across Iowa and Illinois on Thursday, dropping hailstones that ranged from the size of peas to the size of ping pong balls. A tornado developed in northern Illinois during this extreme weather event, too. High temperatures were about 25 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than usual on Thursday in parts of Wisconsin. More research would be needed to connect this rare, winter tornado to climate change, but scientists expect warmer temperatures, more frequent severe weather and more intense severe weather as a result of carbon pollution raising global temperatures.“There is no clear way to say if climate change contributed, but that’s something we would have to do more research on,” Patterson. Temperatures were so warm on Thursday that they touched or broke records from 1925. The mercury topped out at 59 degrees F in Madison and 59 in Milwaukee. A strong El Niño pattern is likely contributing to chart-topping temperatures. “When there’s a strong El Niño signal, we are warmer than normal, which we have seen throughout this winter,” Patterson said. “We have broken multiple high temperature records and high minimum temperatures as well.”Patterson said there were damage reports in Evansville, Edgerton and Albany, which are rural communities south of Madison. No major injuries were reported, Patterson said. It wasn’t immediately clear if all the damage was from a single tornado or if multiple twisters had struck in Wisconsin. Patterson said National Weather Service crews visited damage sites on Friday to assess and classify the strength of the tornado on the Enhanced Fujita Scale."The tornado track near Evansville to SW Jefferson Co is a high end EF2," the weather service said in an X post Friday afternoon.
2 rare tornadoes hit Wisconsin, confirms National Weather Service —The National Weather Service confirms two tornadoes hit Wisconsin, an EF1 near Albany and a high-end EF2 east of Evansville—with the possibility of one being upgraded to an EF3 after further aerial analysis and expert consultation.At a news conference Friday afternoon, Tim Halbach, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service, confirmed winds reached 135 mph in Evansville."A tornado in February is not normal," Halbach said. "It's the first time we've had any tornado warnings that we've ever even issued for our office in February, let alone the first tornado for the state. If anything, it's a sign that any time of year, we can get any kind of weather here. And it's important to be prepared for those days when a tornado like that happens, let alone a tornado of this magnitude." Halbach said hearing tornado warnings in February is unusual, but everyone should heed tornado sirens and warnings no matter what time of year. Local authorities, including law enforcement, fire departments, and EMS personnel, have been conducting house-to-house checks to ensure the safety and well-being of residents within the affected areas. At the same news conference, The Rock County Sheriff's Office said 20 houses were significantly damaged in the tornado. "It was pretty devastating in some of these neighborhoods," Rock County Sheriff Curt Fell said. "We talked with a number of the people that live in the community. We're very thankful of the fact that no one was severely injured out of this, considering the amount of damage that was caused. Personally, I find it kind of amazing no one got more seriously hurt. For that aspect, I couldn't be more thankful." Sheriff Fell said some people sustained minor injuries. He said only one person was taken to the hospital. That person was in their car when the tornado struck. Aerial video shows damage after tornado hits Wisconsin for first time in February Wisconsin historic tornadoes: Aerial video shows damage Officials ask the public to avoid the affected areas while emergency crews and utility workers clear debris and restore essential services. The Evansville Fire Department is coordinating the distribution of donations of water and food donated by the community to aid those affected supplies to ensure they reach the residents in need. Town hall meetings are also organized to provide support and information to affected families.
Widespread floods and landslides in southern Philippines claim 14 lives – (videos) The death toll from landslides and floods caused by torrential rain in the southern Philippines has reached 14, as reported on Saturday, February 3, 2024. The severe weather has affected parts of Mindanao, the country’s second-largest island, leading to tens of thousands seeking refuge in emergency shelters. Davao de Oro, a province known for its gold mining, has been particularly hard-hit, with 10 fatalities in recent days due to relentless rain. Provincial information officer Fe Maestre expressed to AFP that the intensity and continuity of the rain were unprecedented. The casualties in Davao de Oro included victims from landslides in the Maragusan and Monkayo municipalities and drowning incidents in the Pantukan and Maco municipalities. YouTube video Neighboring Davao del Norte also reported tragic incidents, including a landslide in Kapalong municipality that buried four people inside a house, according to rescue officer Jaiasent Cabactulan. Meanwhile, Agusan del Sur province has faced widespread flooding, affecting villages and agricultural land. Provincial disaster agency spokesman Alexis Cabardo indicated on local radio that it might take days for the floodwaters to recede, as water continues to flow down from Davao de Oro.
Scientists propose a Category 6 as hurricanes gain in intensity with climate change - A pair of climate scientists are proposing a sixth category for hurricanes as climate change increasingly intensifies storms, according to a new research study. In a study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the two scientists argued the “open-ended” Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale is becoming increasingly “inadequate” as the globe continues to warm. The scale, developed in the early 1970s, may not reflect the true intensity of some storms, argued study co-authors Michael F. Wehner, a climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, and James P. Kossin, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate and hurricane researcher. Under the proposal, a Category 6 designation would apply to storms with winds that exceed 192 mph. Storms with winds of 157 mph or higher are currently ranked Category 5, an open-ended approach that fails to adequately warn people of the dangers of higher wind speeds, the study contended. The study’s co-authors believe the open-ended nature of the current scale will prompt people to underestimate the risk of some hurricanes, which will become “increasingly problematic in a warming world.” “We find that a number of recent storms have already achieved this hypothetical category 6 intensity and based on multiple independent lines of evidence examining the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, more such storms are projected as the climate continues to warm,” the study stated. Since 2013, five hurricanes — all in the Pacific — reached wind speeds of 192 mph or higher, with warming conditions expected to bring even stronger weather, The Associated Press reported. “Climate change is making the worst storms worse,” Wehner told the AP. Some experts told the AP they do not believe another category is needed and could give people the wrong impression as it’s based on wind speed, rather than water — the deadliest element of hurricanes. University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy reportedly noted climate change is not causing more storms, but rather intensifying storms and increasing the proportion that qualify as major hurricanes. This is driven by warmer oceans, McNoldy said. Kossin told the AP that Pacific storms are stronger as there is less land to weaken them, in contrast to the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. While no Atlantic storm has reached the 192 mph threshold, Kossin and Wehner told news wire the world warming will create a greater chance in the future.
El Niño is ending soon. ‘La Nada’ is up next – The end of the strong El Niño winter is in sight. National forecasters announced Thursday that El Niño is likely to fade away between April and June.The forecast shows strong signs El Niño is already weakening, the Climate Prediction Center said.What comes after that is likely to be neither El Niño nor La Niña. Instead, we’ll be in a phase affectionately nicknamed “La Nada.”The more technical name is “ENSO-neutral,” characterized by the absence of both El Niño and La Niña. Neutral “La Nada” times can make predicting seasonal weather a bit more challenging.“Without an El Niño or La Niña signal present, other, less predictable, climatic factors will govern fall, winter and spring weather conditions,” climatologist Bill Patzert of with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory said in a NASA post.“It’s like driving without a decent road map,” he explained.“The crystal ball is even blurrier than usual,” Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, told Nexstar.But it doesn’t appear we’ll be looking into the blurry crystal ball very long. The Climate Prediction Center said La Niña is looking increasingly likely to kick in sometime over the summer.“Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events,” the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. “Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024.”El Niño years tend to bring cold, wet winters to California and the Southern U.S., but warm, dry conditions for the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley. La Niña tends to bring the opposite: dry conditions for the whole Southern half of the country, but colder, wetter weather for the Pacific Northwest.La Niña years also often correspond with busy and especially destructive hurricane seasons.Whether we’re in a La Niña year, El Niño year, or neither is determined by sea surface temperatures near the equator over the Pacific Ocean. The temperature of the water and air above it can shift the position of the jet stream, which in turn impacts the types of weather observed on land.
Historic snowstorm paralyzes central and eastern Nova Scotia, Canada - (videos) A dangerous winter snowstorm brought Nova Scotia to a standstill over the weekend, with record snowfall exceeding 80 cm (31 inches) in many areas, leading to local emergency declarations and widespread travel disruptions. Nova Scotia experienced dangerous winter conditions over the weekend, resulting in more than 80 cm (31 inches) of snow accumulation in central and eastern regions, bringing parts of the province to a halt. This significant snowfall, one of the heaviest in 20 years for the Maritimes, was caused by an unusual and somewhat stationary system that affected the area. The Cape Breton Regional Municipality (CBRM) and the Eskasoni First Nation were among the hardest-hit areas, both declaring local states of emergency to manage the overwhelming snowfall that has challenged their plow forces and community resources. The snowstorm, combined with high wind gusts, made travel extremely treacherous, leading the Nova Scotia government and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to urge residents to avoid unnecessary travel. In Sydney, unofficial records indicated snowfall reaching up to 150 cm (59 inches), with the Halifax area receiving between 40 and 50 cm (16 – 20 inches) since Friday afternoon, February 2, and the Halifax Stanfield International Airport reporting 84 cm (33 inches) of snow. For Halifax airport, this is the most amount of snow on the ground since 1960 when record keeping began. The snow resulted in numerous flight cancellations and delays, alongside more than 7 000 power outages reported across the province on Monday morning. If Sydney’s amount is confirmed, this will the the largest two- and three- day snowfall event for the city since records there began in the late 1800s. School closures and delayed openings of government offices were widespread, except in western municipalities where the snowfall was lighter. Environment Canada meteorologist Ian Hubbard noted the storm’s unusual behavior, as it parked off Nova Scotia’s east coast on Friday afternoon and remained nearly stationary until Monday morning, continually drawing moisture and producing heavy snowfall. The snowstorm’s impact extended beyond Nova Scotia, with a provincial byelection in Prince Edward Island being postponed due to dangerous driving conditions. This event comes nearly 20 years after the region was hit by White Juan, a powerful snowstorm that dumped up to 95 cm (37.4 inches) of snow around Halifax. As the storm system moved offshore on Monday, temperatures rose close to or slightly above the freezing point, with fair weather predicted for the remainder of the week, though northern Nova Scotia still saw bands of snow moving through on Monday morning.
Heavy snowfall hits Tokyo, injuring more than 130 people and causing traffic chaos, Japan - (2 videos) Heavy snowfall hit Japan’s capital, Tokyo (population 14 million), on Monday, February 5, 2024, injuring more than 130 people and causing traffic chaos. This is the first significant snowfall to hit Tokyo since February 2022 and the city’s first heavy snowfall warning this year. The highest recorded snowfall by Monday evening was in Maebashi, Gunma Prefecture, with 11 cm (4.3 inches), while central Tokyo and the city of Saitama each saw 8 cm (3 inches). In mountainous regions to the north of Tokyo, snow accumulation was forecasted to reach up to 55 cm ( 21.6 inches). In central Tokyo, more than 1 cm (0.4 inch) of snow was recorded for the first time in two years. YouTube video The Tokyo Fire Department noted that more than 130 individuals were transported to hospitals by Tuesday morning (LT), following accidents related to the slippery conditions. These incidents involved residents ranging in age from 4 to 92 years old, thankfully, without any life-threatening injuries reported. Neighboring Kanagawa Prefecture saw five severe injuries and 34 minor injuries, while Saitama Prefecture reported 50 slight injuries. Public transportation saw significant disruptions, with East Japan Railway Co. suspending parts of the Chuo Line and Ome Line, and halting all services on the Yokohama Line. Some 14 000 customers in Tokyo and nearby prefectures were left without power. The Tokaido Shinkansen bullet trains operated at reduced speeds, affecting travel between Tokyo’s Shinagawa Station and Odawara Station in Kanagawa Prefecture. Both All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines were forced to cancel approximately 30 domestic flights, primarily affecting routes to or from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport.
Pod of orcas appear trapped by sea ice in Japan -A pod of at least 10 orcas appear to be trapped by sea ice off the coast of Japan’s northern Hokkaido island.Japanese Coast Guard officials say they were notified of the group of killer whales by local fishers Tuesday morning, public broadcaster NHK reported.Video shared online shows the animals struggling between the ice. Local weather officials say the ice may have immobilized the animals in the water after waves froze on sheets of floating ice, the outlet reported.Wildlife Pro LLC, a local wildlife organization, shared drone footage that showed the animals between the ice flows. The organization said it encounters the whales while doing marine research.“We have no choice but to wait for the ice to break up and for them to escape that way,” a local official told NHK, reported by CNN.Local officials said orcas were trapped in a similar way in 2005 and most of the animals reportedly died. Rescuers can’t make it near the whales now because of the ice flows and hope the animals can free themselves. The sea ice in the area is the lowest latitude sea ice in the world and is in the Hokkaido area every year but has declined as global warming is accelerated, CNN reported.
Widespread snowfall and freezing weather in central and eastern China – video - Widespread snowfall and freezing weather continue in central and eastern China. The National Meteorological Center (NMC) renewed a Yellow alert for freezing weather, and a Blue warning for blizzards on Tuesday, February 6, 2024. Dozens of highway toll stations have been shut down due to blizzards in the provinces of Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Guangzhou and Shandong. 29 cm (11.4 inches) of snow was recorded in Qianjiang, Hubei on February 6, breaking the historical record. In addition, 28 stations across China set new February snow depth records. For many residents in central China, this is the worst snowfall event since 2008.
Raging wildfires claim more than 120 lives, leave hundreds missing in central Chile - Intense wildfires in central Chile have resulted in at least 122 fatalities, hundreds missing, and the destruction of thousands of homes as of early Monday, February 5, 2024. A state of emergency has been declared in response to the crisis, with fires continuing to spread through densely populated areas. Chilean President Gabriel Boric and Interior Minister Carolina Tohá highlighted the severity of the situation, noting the challenges posed by 92 active fires amid unusually high temperatures and the impact of the El Niño weather pattern. Central Chile is currently facing one of its most severe wildfire crises, with at least 122 people confirmed dead and hundreds. Unfortunately, the death toll is expected to continue rising. The Chilean government has declared a state of emergency as the fires, exacerbated by the El Niño weather phenomenon, continue to spread across densely populated areas. Chile’s Interior Minister Carolina Tohá reported that 92 forest fires are raging in the central and southern parts of the country, driven by unusually high temperatures this week. The deadliest fires are occurring in the Valparaíso region, prompting authorities to advise residents to stay indoors to facilitate the movement of emergency vehicles. Two significant fires near Quilpué and Villa Alemana have consumed at least 3 237 ha (8 000 acres), with the blaze moving dangerously close to the coastal resort of Viña del Mar. In Villa Independencia, a hillside neighborhood in Viña del Mar, entire blocks of homes and businesses have been obliterated. YouTube video Residents like Rolando Fernández, who lost his home in the fires, shared harrowing accounts of the blaze’s rapid spread, which left little time for evacuation. To combat the wildfires, the government has mobilized 19 helicopters and over 450 firefighters, although reaching the most affected areas remains a challenge. The fires have also led to blackouts, forced evacuations of hospitals and nursing homes, and destroyed critical infrastructure, including bus terminals in the Valparaíso region.The El Niño weather pattern has been blamed for the droughts and higher temperatures across South America, significantly increasing the risk of forest fires. In comparison, January saw over 17 000 ha (42 000 acres) of forests destroyed in Colombia due to fires following weeks of dry weather. Chile’s current wildfires are among the worst in recent history, following a year marked by a record heatwave that resulted in 27 deaths and affected over 162 000 ha (400 000 acres).
Phreatic eruption, pyroclastic flows at Mayon volcano, Philippines - (video) A phreatic eruption occurred at the Mayon volcano summit on Sunday, February 4, 2024, at 08:37 UTC, lasting 169 seconds. The event generated a 1 200 m (4 000 feet) tall ash plume, rockfalls and pyroclastic flows. The volcano’s Alert Level remains at 2 and authorities are reminding the public to avoid the Permanent Danger Zone. On Sunday, February 4, 2024, at 08:37 UTC (16:37 local time), the Mayon Volcano in the Philippines erupted in a phreatic explosion that lasted for approximately 169 seconds. The eruption was characterized by a booming sound, the occurrence of rockfall, pyroclastic density currents (PDC), and the generation of a 1 200 m (4 000 feet) tall plume that drifted southwest. This is about 3.6 km (12 000 feet) above sea level. Following the eruption, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has reiterated the importance of not entering the 6 km (3.7 miles) Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) surrounding the volcano due to the potential hazards such as sudden steam-driven eruptions, landslides, and lahars, especially during heavy and prolonged rainfall. Mayon Volcano, known for its perfect cone shape and as the most active volcano in the Philippines, remains at Alert Level 2, indicating a moderate level of unrest. The volcano, which rises majestically above the Albay Gulf northwest of Legazpi City, has a history of eruptions dating back to 1616 CE, ranging from Strombolian to basaltic Plinian types. Its eruptive history is marked by cyclical activity that typically begins with basaltic eruptions, followed by andesitic lava flows that have occasionally reached populated areas, causing significant damage and fatalities. The 1814 eruption, one of its most violent, resulted in over 1 200 deaths and widespread destruction.
Long-duration M4.2 solar flare erupts from Region 3575 – video - A long-duration M4.2 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3575 at 03:12 UTC on February 6, 2024. The event started at 02:37 UTC and ended at 03:37. Type II and IV radio emissions were associated with the event, indicating a strong coronal mass ejection was produced. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare), with a peak flux of 470 sfu and lasting 20 minutes, was also associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. YouTube video The location of this region (near the SW limb) does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Australia and SE Asia at the time of the flare. Between 11:53 UTC on February 4 and 03:12 UTC today, a total of 11 M-class flares were detected. Today’s M4.2 is the strongest one: Solar activity will likely continue at moderate levels with occasional M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts), and a chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3 Strong Radio Blackout) through February 7. Probabilities will decrease somewhat to a chance for M-class flares, and a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare event, on February 8 as AR 3575 exits the southwestern limb. Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC today, likely due to periphery-like CME and positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. The total field increased from 6 nT to 11 nT, but the Bz component was mostly northward or near neutral. Solar wind speeds increased from 350 – 400 km/s to ~440 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels today as positive polarity CH HSS and glancing CME effects wane. Primarily quiet conditions are expected on February 7 and 8.
NASA announces ‘super-Earth,’ exoplanet in ‘habitable zone’ -- A nearby “super-Earth” exoplanet was recently discovered just 137 light-years away from Earth, prompting scientists to dig deeper into whether it has the conditions to sustain life, NASA announced.The planet, dubbed TOI-715 b, is about one-and-a-half times as wide as Earth and orbits within a conservative “habitable zone” around its parent star, NASA confirmed in a press release last week. NASA defines a habitable zone as the distance from the star that could give the planet the right temperature for liquid water to form on its surface. Astronomers noted other factors must line up for the planet to have a suitable atmosphere, though the planet’s placement in the zone puts it in “prime position” relative to its parent star.
The U.S. hopes to build more pipelines for carbon capture. Landowners don't want them Thousands of miles of oil and natural gas pipelines already crisscross the country. Now, many more are being proposed to carry things like hydrogen and carbon dioxide as ways to combat climate change. The pipeline runs right through Kenny Davis’ modest Scott County, Illinois, farm, where he had planned to build a home for him and his wife once he retired from working as an electrical lineman. “I can’t do that now,” he said. “I’ve got a pipeline right here.” He points out a roughly 30 foot wide clearing straight through the surrounding forest where the natural gas pipeline runs underneath. “It’s changed my whole outlook on this farm.” The Midwest has thousands of miles of oil and natural gas pipelines running underneath farmland, forests, and even rivers. And many more pipeline projects are being proposed as part of efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. But the new pipeline proposals face stiff resistance from farmers and landowners who cite past projects that exposed regulatory gaps and left behind considerable damage. Spire won approval in 2018 to construct a natural gas pipeline through southern Illinois to supply the St. Louis region. The 65-mile route was up and running by 2019, but left a wake of damage on dozens of locals’ properties, like Davis’s. He said he didn’t have much of a choice as Spire used the power of eminent domain to condemn the part of his property they wanted for the pipeline. And now, nearly five years after construction finished, Davis said there are lasting problems, like how the small creek on his property is now eroding, and flows differently “The new creek channel right here, it’s hitting this bank,” he said. “That all is just going to cave in.” And then there are the large chunks of wood buried in the ground. He said the company left behind the wooden platforms they used to support the heavy machinery that installed the pipeline. Further south, Ray Sinclair also has leftover wood buried in the fields of his family farm. He adds that the construction changed the slope of his soybean fields, causing water to pool in low areas. Others have lost productivity too, he said, adding that some farmers along the route have told him their yields have been cut in half. The Illinois Attorney General is now suing Spire over these ongoing damages. Spire disputes the claims and has said it has adequately restored the majority of property it worked on. To Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-Illinois) the damage is a wakeup call. “The Spire situation has proven how much we need to update pipeline rules,” she said. “Somebody has to be watching and checking up on what these companies are doing.” Duckworth acknowledges pipelines are a critical part of the country’s transition away from fossil fuels, and natural gas is a stopgap in that transition. “We need to make sure that (pipelines) are operated safely and in a way that does not damage the environment,” she said. “And if there is damage that occurs, it has to be remediated.” More pipelines have been proposed and permitted to carry CO2 for sequestration and hydrogen as a replacement for natural gas. Many are eligible for large tax breaks from the Inflation Reduction Act. “There has been a collective choice to go down this path,” said Tara Righetti, chair of energy and environmental policy at the University of Wyoming. “Pretty much all of the modeling shows that carbon removal to some extent is going to be necessary.” The EPA has created new rules that would require power generation facilities to retrofit with technology to capture CO2, Righetti added. They and other big emitters, like ethanol facilities, chemical and cement plants, will need pipelines to connect to places where captured CO2 can be sequestered, she said. The captured gas can’t be pumped underground just anywhere; it takes a certain type of geology. Suitable places are concentrated along the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast, Midwest and Great Plains, and often not directly next to large polluters. Righetti explained that this means the current 5,000 miles of operating CO2 pipelines could grow ten times over. There are 20 projects proposed in Louisiana alone. She described them as “really long pipeline networks that sort of spider web across (the country),” adding, “I think a lot of this initially will be developed in relatively rural areas.” But those projects have been a tough sell in those areas. Last year Navigator CO2 scrapped its plan for 1,300 miles of CO2 pipelines across the Midwest that would have sequestered carbon in Illinois. And operations of Summit Carbon Solutions’ 2,000 mile network have been delayed by years after North Dakota and South Dakota rejected the company’s permit requests.
What the ‘record numbers’ of jets expected to flock to the Super Bowl mean for emissions - Hundreds of private jets, a major source of planet-warming carbon emissions, are expected to descend on Las Vegas for the Super Bowl on Sunday. In addition to the emissions from the jets themselves, experts say the influx of aircraft is likely to have a downstream effect that will result in more emissions from congested streets. The four airports in the Las Vegas area have around 500 parking spots for private jets, which officials say are fully booked ahead of the game Sunday. “We expect around 3,500 additional takeoffs and landings and about 500 aircraft will be parked at local airports during Super Bowl week,” a Federal Aviation Administration spokesperson told The Hill in a statement. “The expectation is that general aviation activity will be similar to what we saw during [the] Formula 1 [Grand Prix] back in November,” when more than 900 business jets touched down at three airports, Joe Rajchel, a spokesperson for the Clark County Department of Aviation, told The Hill in an email. “We saw record numbers of private aviation with more than 1,000 movements between Henderson Executive Airport and North Las Vegas Airport.” That’s more than last year’s Super Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., where The Arizona Republic estimated about 800 takeoffs and landings occurred. Omar Ocampo, a researcher with the Institute for Policy Studies (ISP), noted that Las Vegas is already a major travel destination, both for tourists flying commercial and for wealthier individuals either chartering private flights or flying their own, which compounds the impact of the mass arrival of private jets in a way that was not present last year. Private air travel is particularly emissions-intensive in much the same way a road full of cars is less environmentally friendly than a bus, said Benjamin Leffel, an assistant professor of public policy sustainability at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “There are a lot of them, and although they are smaller, enough of them are highly problematic,” he said. One of the highest-profile expected attendees of the upcoming Super Bowl, Taylor Swift, has frequently attended Kansas City Chiefs games in support of her boyfriend, tight end Travis Kelce, and is expected to fly 5,548 miles from a Tokyo concert to the game. Swift has attracted backlash for her private air travel since a 2022 report by the marketing agency Yard named her the top celebrity carbon emissions offender due to her jet’s frequent trips. A publicist for the musician said at the time that she purchases offsets — or payments representing emissions reductions to compensate for carbon expenditures — for private flights and regularly loans out the plane, and all flights cannot be attributed to her alone. The Hill has reached out to Swift’s attorneys for details on the types of offsets she purchases as well as their frequency.
US to require cryptocurrency mines to report energy use data The U.S. government will require companies that mine for cryptocurrency to report information on their energy use.The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said that starting next week, it will “survey identified commercial cryptocurrency miners, which are required to respond with details related to their energy use.”“We will specifically focus on how the energy demand for cryptocurrency mining is evolving, identify geographic areas of high growth, and quantify the sources of electricity used to meet cryptocurrency mining demand,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a written statement this week. The survey was authorized by the White House Office of Management and Budget as an “emergency collection of data request.”In order to introduce new cryptocurrency into circulation, “mines” use energy-consuming computers. These computers generate solutions to puzzles that unlock new cryptocurrency.Cryptocurrency mining in the U.S. has grown significantly over the past few years, especially after a 2021 crackdown on the activity in China. A preliminary estimate from the EIA said that under the low-end of its estimate, cryptocurrency mining represents electricity usage equal to entire states like Utah and West Virginia.It makes up from 0.6 percent to 2.3 percent of the nation’s total electricity consumption.The EIA said that this use has led to concerns about strains on the nation’s electric grid, the potential for higher electricity prices and additional carbon dioxide emissions that warm the planet. The increased electricity demand due to cryptocurrency mining has, in some places, enabled idled fossil fuel power plants to come back online.Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns over the practice’s energy use and climate implications and have urged the federal government to track them.
‘Somewhat terrified’: A key Biden official gets candid on Trump’s agenda - Donald Trump’s return to the White House could be “catastrophic” for clean energy, particularly the still struggling offshore wind industry, a top Biden administration official says. Eric Beightel, who is in charge of coordinating infrastructure approvals across federal agencies, told the POLITICO Energy podcast he is “somewhat terrified” that a second Trump presidency would be “catastrophic to our hopes and dreams of our clean energy transition.” “What we saw during the last Trump administration is that offshore wind essentially stood still,” Beightel said during an interview for the podcast posted Thursday. “And what we’ve had to do since coming in was to pick that up. “If we had to do that again, coupled with the previous supply chain issues that we’ve already had to reconcile, that could be a death knell to this nascent industry,” said Beightel, executive director of the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council. His remarks offered an unusually stark assessment from an important but lesser-known administration official about the damage that Trump could do to President Joe Biden’s priorities if voters elect the GOP front-runner in November. Trump has derided Biden’s signature efforts to grow clean energy production — and has devoted much of his scorn to wind power, a years-old obsession dating back to his battles against developers of a wind farm near one of his golf courses in Scotland. His criticisms have ranged from more mainstream Republican arguments, questioning the reliability of the technology to the outlandish claim that wind turbines cause cancer. “If you have a windmill anywhere near your house, congratulations your house just went down 75 percent in value,” Trump said in a 2020 speech. “And they say the noise causes cancer. And of course it’s like a graveyard for birds.”
Facing demand increase, Duke Energy seeks to delay its 2030 climate target in North Carolina -Facing a massive projected increase in electricity demand, Duke Energy on Wednesday proposed what advocates called a “tripling down” of new gas plants and scuttling a 2030 deadline to significantly curb its carbon pollution.An update of a proposal submitted last summer, the bid comes after the company warned in November that major new economic development projects would drive electricity sales “well above” its “historical experience.” The amended plans show the company expects a 12% increase in demand by 2038, driven largely by more than two dozen economic development projects in both Carolinas that had made “commitments sufficient to justify inclusion” in the new load forecast. To meet the increased demand in the near term while preparing for decarbonization mandates in the long term, Duke wants to build two more large, “hydrogen-capable” gas plants than it proposed in August. Some hydrogen fuel could theoretically be zero-emitting but is not yet commercially available, and critics call the technology speculative.The company also proposes an additional smaller, single-cycle gas plant. In all, Duke recommends nearly 9 gigawatts of new gas before 2035, almost three times what it anticipated in its first blueprint to cut carbon pollution, approved at the end of 2022. “This plan is tripling down on the coal-to-gas transition, saddling customers with risky investments in new polluting power plants and failing to deliver the clean energy future called for in state law,” said Will Scott, Southeast Climate & Clean Energy Director for the Environmental Defense Fund, in a prepared statement.On the bright side for renewables, the company does recommend a smidge more solar and battery storage. And most significantly, it proposes 2.4 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2035 — about two-thirds the size of the Kitty Hawk Wind energy area, the project off the Outer Banks that’s furthest along in development.
Uptick in Fossil Fuel Share in EU in 2022 Exceptional: Commission -The share of fossil fuels in energy consumption in the European Union in 2022 stood at 70.9 percent, the European Commission has reported. While that represented an increase from 69.9 percent the prior year, the uptick was “exceptional from an energy perspective”, it noted. “Being the first full calendar year after major restrictions related to COVID-19 were lifted, it was also marked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, and price spikes of various energy commodities”, the Commission said in a report Tuesday using figures from the EU statistics agency Eurostat. It also cited a 16.7-percent year-on-year decrease in nuclear power production in 2022. The 609,255 gigawatt hours from nuclear energy in 2022 was the lowest share for nuclear since 1990, the first year for which comparable data across the region was available, the Commission earlier reported January 2024. “Even if renewable energy sources have increased, this was not enough to compensate for the decrease in nuclear energy”, it said in Tuesday’s report. Renewables comprised 23 percent of EU energy consumption in 2022, up from 21.9 percent 2021, according to a separate Commission bulletin update. From 1990 to 2021, fossil fuel reliance in the 27-member bloc fell by about 11.5 percentage points (pp) yearly, mainly due to renewable energy growth, the Commission said in Tuesday’s report. In 2022, Malta remained the EU country with the largest share of fossil fuels in national total energy demand at 96.1 percent, followed by Cyprus at 89.3 percent and the Netherlands at 87.6 percent. Sweden and Finland were the only EU states that had shares below 50 percent at 30.4 percent and 38.3 percent respectively. “Most of the other EU countries had shares between 50 percent and 85 percent”, the Commission said. “Compared with 2021, in 2022, the largest, yet rather small, decreases in the share of fossil fuels in gross available energy were in Latvia (-3.7 pp), Slovakia (-2.1 pp), and Hungary (-1.9 pp)”, it wrote. “The largest increases were in Estonia (+4.2 pp), France (+2.9 pp), and Bulgaria (2.8 pp)”. The EU’s total energy consumption in 2022 was 902.3 million tons of oil equivalent (MMtoe). Oil and petroleum products accounted for the biggest share at 331.7 MMtoe, followed by electricity at 207.3 MMtoe and natural gas at 185 MMtoe, according to Eurostat figures. The transport sector consumed 279.6 MMtoe. The household sector consumed 242.4 MMtoe, while the industry sector consumed 226.4 MMtoe, based on the figures obtained from the Eurostat website.
Is LNG dirtier than coal? It's complicated. - The White House decision to pause approvals of liquefied natural gas terminals has fed a contentious debate: Is LNG dirtier than coal? Many environmentalists argue that it is, challenging the conventional wisdom that gas is a sort of diet fossil fuel that could help reduce climate pollution as the energy system shifts to renewable power. But the picture is more complicated than that, say many researchers who study the carbon content of fuels. Gas — and LNG exports in particular — most likely contributes more to planetary warming than previously thought, but it still can reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to coal in some instances. The idea is a bombshell in the world of energy politics, where gas has long been touted as having about half as many emissions than coal. In December 2023, 170 climate scientists signed onto a letter asking President Joe Biden to reject plans to build more LNG export terminals, mostly along the Gulf of Mexico, on the grounds that liquefied gas is “at least 24 percent worse for the climate than coal.” Biden’s announcement last month to temporarily halt the approval of future projects until it examines their climate impact took a step in that direction — and fanned the flames of the gas versus coal debate. The argument that LNG is dirtier than coal runs against previous academic and government studies, which have found that LNG can reduce planet warming emissions. Claims to the contrary are often based on a forthcoming Cornell University study, which has yet to be peer reviewed. Robert Howarth, a professor at the university who wrote the study, said previous research about LNG’s climate impacts failed to account for the carbon dioxide emissions associated with liquefying the gas, a process that requires chilling it to extremely cold temperatures. “We need to move away from all fossil fuels. But the U.S. is hugely increasing our production of natural gas. We’re the world’s largest producer of natural gas. We were not 10-15 years ago. We are the largest exporter of natural gas. We didn’t export any 10 years ago,” Howarth said in an interview. “It’s totally the wrong trajectory.”His assertions come as carbon emissions in the U.S. power sector fell by a third between 2005 and 2022, thanks in large part to a shift from coal to gas-fired power generation.But the climate advantages decrease when methane — the primary component of gas — is flared, vented or leaked into the atmosphere at wellheads, pipelines and other gas industry infrastructure.Comparing the greenhouse gases that are released by coal and gas is complicated because the characteristics of the emissions are different. Methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas in the short-term, but it breaks up in the atmosphere after several decades, whereas carbon dioxide can remain in the air for more than a century.Howarth raised alarms about the climate downside of gas in 2011, when he co-authored a study that found that as much as 7.9 percent of methane associated with gas production was vented or leaked into the atmosphere. His numbers were far bigger than government estimates and, he argued, would make gas a greater contributor to warming than coal, particularly over the short-term.Subsequent studies found that methane leaks were bigger than the government had suggested, though few duplicated the numbers put forward by Howarth. A peer-reviewed 2018 Environmental Defense Fund study estimated that 2.3 percent of methane entered the atmosphere during gas production, or 60 percent higher than EPA estimates. A peer-reviewed 2020 study estimated that methane emissions in the Permian Basin, America’s largest oil-producing region where flaring is common, were 3.3 percent. A peer-reviewed 2022 EDF study estimated that low producing oil and gas wells are a particularly large source of methane emissions, with leakage rates of 11 percent.Industry groups have frequently criticized Howarth’s work as politically motivated, saying his numbers are inflated.The benchmark study for LNG’s climate impact is a 2019 analysis conducted by the Department of Energy. It found that the life-cycle emissions of U.S. LNG that’s exported to Asia ranged from 54 percent to 2 percent less than local coal over a 20-year period. In Europe, those figures ranged from 56 percent less than coal to 1 percent more than coal. A peer-reviewed 2015 Carnegie Mellon University study echoed those findings. It found that LNG emitted 32 percent less than coal when used for power generation. But it found LNG emissions were 4 percent higher than coal when used as a substitute for industrial heat over the short-term.The DOE study assumed methane leaks from the U.S. gas supply chain were 0.7 percent. To critics like Byers, that is evidence that Howarth’s numbers are inflated. But his supporters say it shows that DOE needs to update its assumptions. Howarth’s newest analysis assumes a leakage rate of 2.6 percent. Carnegie Mellon researchers, for their part, assumed a 3 percent leakage rate for U.S. gas production.
Who wants to frack under an Ohio state park? State law keeps it a secret - The Cincinnati Enquirer - The road to fracking under Ohio's state parks and wildlife areas has been paved with secrecy, opponents say, and the application process is the latest example. Sunday marked the deadline for companies to apply to extract for oil and gas under Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County, Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County and Zepernick Wildlife Area in Columbiana County. But Ohioans won't know who applied until after Ohio's Oil and Gas Land Commission picks a winner. That's because of a 2011 law that keeps the details of these bids confidential.Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a method that injects water, sand and chemicals into the ground to create new fractures in rocks and extract natural gas, oil and brine. The process can result in chemical spills at the surface, groundwater quality contamination and induced earthquakes, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The reason for the confidentiality in Ohio's bids, according to state law, is to "encourage the submission of bids and the responsible and reasonable development of the state's natural resources." "The thought process was," explained Rob Brundrett, president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association. "If the bids were not public when the bidding process was going on, it would encourage more bidders and hopefully better bids for the state." But opponents of fracking in Ohio contend that the secrecy is one more way that this process is rigged to favor oil and gas companies. "The gas and oil industry in Ohio has made sure that Ohio law reflects their wants and needs, and that process is all about secrecy," said Melinda Zemper, a steering committee member for Save Ohio Parks, which opposes fracking on state land. "The public and the media can't check the histories of these companies regarding any serious methane leaks or water contamination or other environmental harms that should disqualify them from doing business with the state," Zemper said. For Nathan Johnson, an attorney and public lands director with the Ohio Environmental Council, it begs the question: Why is secrecy needed to encourage bids?"I think it's because fracking public parks is deeply unpopular with the public," Johnson said. At least one company, Texas-based Encino Energy, has made its interest in leasing the oil and gas rights under Salt Fork State Park well known. The company, which did not respond to a request for comment, has asked Guernsey County residents about leasing their well pads. Cleveland.com reported that Encino offered to pay up to $1.8 billion between royalty payments and a signing bonus, according to a proposal that was ultimately rejected. Encino also has a new office in Carrollton near the Valley Run Wildlife Area, according to the Carroll County Messenger. The number of possible applicants is also limited to companies with well pads in the area, said Julie Weatherington-Rice, a senior scientist at Bennett and Williams Environmental Consultants. The top shale oil and gas producers in Ohio last year included Ascent Resources, Encino, Gulfport Appalachia, Southwestern Energy and Rice Drilling, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources data. Nine companies operate in Guernsey County, four in Columbiana and three in Carroll, according to those records. Details about each applicant will be publicly available after the commission picks the "highest and best bid," according to state law. There is no set deadline for the commission to select a winner. Ohio lawmakers first approved fracking under state parks in 2011, but the process sped up after a series of changes were approved in recent years. Brundrett with the oil and gas association thinks the delays are behind them. "It's always better to have some sort of deadline to follow, but we're confident the commission is going to continue to work to award a bid, and we think they're going to do it in a reasonable time frame," he said. For environmental groups, the secrecy surrounding which companies have applied is the latest example of a process that hasn't been open and accessible to the public. Opponents were not able to speak at the Oil and Gas Land Commission's November meeting where members voted to greenlight accepting bids. They instead loudly protested throughout the meeting. Cleveland.com found dozens of letters sent to the commission in support of fracking under state parks were fake, and the Ohio Attorney General's office is investigating that. State lawmakers have ensured the commission has little leeway to reject these bids based on public feedback, Weatherington-Rice said. “Everything is rigged in favor of the oil and gas companies, which is what they planned in the first place."Two lawsuits could impact the timeline. Last April, environmental groups sued Ohio to block the law allowing fracking under state parks and lands. The environmental group argues that changes were added to an unrelated chicken bill, violating a rule that requires legislation to be limited to a single subject.In November, environmental groups challenged Ohio's decision to greenlight applications. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost's office argued that the decision could not be appealed. The case is pending in court.
Radicals Push “Secrecy” Narrative re Drilling Under OH State Parks -- Marcellus Drilling News = Anti-fossil fuel zealots (climate catastrophists) have set their sights on blocking drilling and fracking under (not on top of) Ohio’s state-owned land, including several state parks. Their favorite tactic is to lie and smear the companies that seek to do such drilling. One tiny problem (for the zealots): they don’t know which companies are bidding to do the drilling. And that drives them even more crazy. So the zealots, with the help of mainstream media, are trying to paint the process as “secretive” — like there’s something nefarious that the fracking industry wants to hide. In reality, the identity of the winning bid is kept “secret” until the deal is officially announced because IT’S STATE LAW.
Utica Shale Academy Purchases Building for $500K - Business Journal Daily – With full classrooms and a new building project that came in far over bid, the Utica Shale Academy instead just added another $500,000 building to its campus. The three-story building at 10 Main St., formerly the Williams Energy office, will allow even younger students to benefit from the career-based programming at Utica Shale. Superintendent Bill Watson said the school has been growing strong, so much so that it had to cut off enrollment for seniors in December when the school reached 160 students in grades nine through 12. With the new building, the school can add seventh and eighth graders and move the ninth graders in with them, opening up space for up to 350 students. The younger students will be on the second floor of the building, Watson said, where they will receive early introductory classes into the trades. The first floor will allow Utica to offer more programming through its partnership with the Youngstown State University Excellence Training Center, including robotics and industrial technology trade programs. The building is being paid for with part of the $2.35 million the school received last summer from the Governor’s Office of Appalachian Regional Commission Grant program. At the time, the school’s plan was new construction, but Watson said bids came in 300% what was anticipated. Instead, the school on Jan. 30 was able to purchase the 22,695-square-foot Williams Building, which was built in 1995 and was the original headquarters of Citizens Bank. The third floor will be used for administrative offices, with the possibility of Utica’s partnering district, Southern Local Schools, moving the superintendent’s offices from the current location in a modular office behind the school. “Partnership and collaboration are the most important part of growth,” said Watson, who believes without partners like Southern Local, the ARC, YSU and others, the school would not be where it is today. More than 1,100 at-risk students have gained certifications from the school since 2021. The school started 10 years ago with just a handful of students in one room at Southern Local.
Utica Shale Academy receives COPS safety grant - – The Utica Shale Academy is taking steps to enhance campus safety after securing a $452,975 federal grant. The community school received the COPS School Violence Prevention Program grant from the U.S. Attorney General Merrick B. Garland and the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS Office) and will be supplemented with an additional $150,000 match from Utica Shale Academy as part of a total $604,000 plan for staffing and training. Superintendent Bill Watson said changes will be implemented over the next year and include hiring a safety official who will work with county and local law enforcement and adding security equipment to the campus. “[The new official] will travel to school districts to educate them about the academy’s safety plan, ensuring that each student is knowledgeable about the procedures,” Watson said. “The training is open to the Salineville Police Department and Columbiana County Sheriff’s Office and fosters a more collaborative approach to safety.” The new safety official should be in place over the next year while training is expected to begin Aug. 1. School staff have already undergone instruction on unarmed defense and crisis mitigation. Moreover, the grant will help cover the costs of essential equipment such as cameras and metal detectors to provide an extra layer of protection. Watson said this investment in safety is part of the academy’s broader effort to expand and improve its campus facilities, which includes various buildings for different educational purposes and plans for new construction to enhance educational offerings. He cited state and federal legislators for their substantial support in securing the funding, including Ohio Sen. Michael Rulli (R-33rd District) and state Reps. Monica Robb Blasdel (R-79th District) and Al Cutrona (R-85th District) and U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance and former Rep. Bill Johnson, both R-Ohio. He said their advocacy and assistance were crucial in obtaining the grant. “The support from the Senators and Representatives not only underlines the importance of political backing in educational advancements, it also reinforces the academy’s commitment to creating a safe and enriching learning environment for its students.” Utica Shale Academy, known for its focus on career-tech education for at-risk students, has been successful in helping students obtain more than 1,100 certifications since 2021. A total of 190 students in grades 9-12 are currently enrolled and it is seeking to expand to include seventh- and eighth-graders.
Peregrine Adds Mineral Rights in the Bakken and Utica --- Peregrine Energy Partners has closed on producing and non-producing royalty interests in both the Bakken and Utica Shales from multiple undisclosed sellers. The acquisitions feature production from over 120 producing wells from core areas within each basin. “The Bakken is an area that has appealed to us for the past two decades since shale’s early days,” commented Managing Director Josh Prier. “The production profile in North Dakota is mature, consistent and predictable which will help deliver solid cashflows for years to come.” The Utica Shale in Ohio has been commercially produced since 2011 with operators such as EOG, SWN, Chesapeake and Ascent leading the charge. Mr. Prier continued, “The gas properties in the Utica lend themselves to future development and will complement the more mature oil heavy assets from the Bakken into a diversified portfolio generating predictable monthly income with opportunity for upside.” Two years ago, Peregrine acquired one of their largest royalty positions, also in the Utica, spanning over 340,000 gross acres in 18 counties and has since become much more active in the area. According to C.J. Tibbs, Managing Director, “The Utica continues to prove itself not only as a one of the major natural gas basins, but also as a significant oil play with operators like EOG delivering strong early results.” While Peregrine continues to work with individual royalty owners to provide divestment options, the firm has been especially active in working with operators, funds, partnerships, and trusts who are looking to sell down non-core, passive interests in order to put that capital to work in more active assets that deliver a higher IRR. “We’ve been able to create a simple, fair, and painless path to exit for these groups who appreciate cleaning up their books and re-directing capital from non-core interests into active assets that they have more control over,” commented Mr. Tibbs.
NOG Announces Closings of Utica and Northern Delaware Acquisitions - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc has now closed on both of its previously announced acquisitions of Utica and Northern Delaware Basin assets from private sellers. NOG paid $162.6 million in cash in aggregate initial closing settlements, with $28.4 million of the closing costs incurred in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the remaining $134.2 million in the first quarter of 2024. The first quarter closings were funded in part by a $17.1 million deposit paid at signing in November 2023. The closing settlements are net of preliminary and customary purchase price adjustments and remain subject to post-closing settlements between the parties. More information regarding these acquisitions can be found in NOG’s November 21, 2023, press release announcing the transactions, which is available here. This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and future results that are subject to the safe harbors created under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and important factors (many of which are beyond NOG’s control) that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements, including the following: changes in crude oil and natural gas prices, the pace of drilling and completions activity on NOG’s current properties and properties pending acquisition; infrastructure constraints and related factors affecting NOG’s properties; cost inflation or supply chain disruptions; NOG’s ability to acquire additional development opportunities, potential or pending acquisition transactions, the projected capital efficiency savings and other operating efficiencies and synergies resulting from NOG’s acquisition transactions, integration and benefits of property acquisitions, or the effects of such acquisitions on NOG’s cash position and levels of indebtedness; changes in NOG’s reserves estimates or the value thereof; disruption to NOG’s business due to acquisitions and other significant transactions; general economic or industry conditions, nationally and/or in the communities in which NOG conducts business; changes in the interest rate environment, legislation or regulatory requirements, conditions of the securities markets; NOG’s ability to consummate any pending acquisition transactions; other risks and uncertainties related to the closing of pending acquisition transactions; NOG’s ability to raise or access capital; changes in accounting principles, policies or guidelines; events beyond NOG’s control, including a global or domestic health crisis, acts of terrorism, political or economic instability or armed conflict in oil and gas producing regions; and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technical factors affecting NOG’s operations, products and prices.
20 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 29 – Feb 4 - Marcellus Drilling News - There were 20 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Jan. 29 – Feb. 4, versus 27 permits issued during the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 12 new permits last week. Ohio issued 6 new permits. West Virginia issued 2 new permits last week. We had a tie for the company receiving the most permits. Seneca Resources received 4 permits to drill in Tioga County, PA, and Ascent Resources received 4 permits to drill in Harrison County, OH. Apex Energy | Ascent Resources | Beech Resources | Belmont County | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Diversified Gas & Oil | EQT Corp | Greene County (PA) | Gulfport Energy | Harrison County | Harrison County | Lycoming County | Range Resources Corp | Seneca Resources | Susquehanna County | Tioga County (PA) | Washington County | Westmoreland County
MPLX Says Market “Underappreciates” Growth Potential in Marcellus -- Marcellus Drilling News - In late 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged in the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (see MarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, plays on a much larger stage now, including ownership and operation of major assets in the Permian Basin and in the Bakken Shale, in addition to the Marcellus/Utica. Last week, MPLX issued its fourth quarter 2023 update. MPLX Chairman and CEO Michael Hennigan had an interesting comment during a conference call: “I think the market is underappreciating the growth potential up in the Marcellus.”
More questions than answers after Massachusetts order to transition from natural gas -- Massachusetts utilities, regulators, and lawmakers are beginning to chart their next steps following an order issued two months ago that signaled the beginning of the end of natural gas in the state. While hailed as a transformational win by clean energy advocates, the Dec. 6 decision is light on specifics, instead laying out broad, guiding principles that stakeholders will need to convert into policy. “The order poses the questions, but doesn’t answer them for the most part,” said state Sen. Michael Barrett, chair of the joint telecommunications, utilities, and energy committee. “It’s an opening statement in the huge conversation Massachusetts needs to have about truly reducing the footprint of the gas system in the state.” The order tops off a three-year investigation into how gas utilities can help Massachusetts achieve its goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Released by the Department of Public Utilities, the document sets an explicit policy goal of transitioning from natural gas and rejects utilities’ proposal to integrate renewable natural gas as a route to decarbonization. It also calls for gas and electric utilities to coordinate their planning and requires policies to ensure the transition doesn’t financially burden lower-income residents. “The most amazing part – and the part that I never thought I would see – is it’s actually saying we as a state need to reduce our emissions and you as a public utility need to be an active part of this,” says Amy Boyd Rabin, vice president of policy for the Environmental League of Massachusetts. “I think that’s the first time in this country that such a standard has been applied.” Utility companies, the legislature, and state regulators still have to lay out concrete strategies for translating the ideas in the order into meaningful change, advocates said. Perhaps the most pressing question, advocates said, is the issue of coordination between electric and gas utilities. While the two providers often have the same name and corporate parent — National Grid or Eversource, for example — the gas and electric sides of the business are run as separate companies, with distinct leadership, decision-making, and regulatory requirements. Though the gas and electric companies are legally allowed to share information and ideas, it is unclear how often they do so, Rabin said. The transition from gas, however, makes communication between the two essential: The electric side will need to do extensive planning to make sure it is ready to deal with surging demand as buildings transition from gas heat to electric heat pumps.
Duke Seeking More Carolinas Natural Gas Generation on Stronger Demand Forecast - Duke Energy Corp. is awaiting approval from regulators for updated Carolinas resource plans to increase natural gas generation, fueled in part by the Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC (MVP) system, which would transport more Appalachian supply to southeastern markets. Charlotte, NC-based Duke last summer filed a Carbon Plan and Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) for North Carolina and South Carolina. The IRP asked for approval to add 17,980 MW, including 5,780 MW of combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and combustion turbines. After filing the IRP last August, however, revised forecasts for the next 15 years showed electricity demand would require an additional 2,000 MW. Duke late last month proposed adding more than 2,720 MW of CCGT in South Carolina, an addition to the August proposal
Transco Files to Add 1.6 Bcf/d of Southeast Natural Gas Takeaway Capacity - Williams has filed with FERC for authorization to build its Southeast Supply Enhancement Project that would add about 1.6 Bcf/d of capacity to its Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. (Transco) for natural gas deliveries from Virginia to Georgia. The pre-filing request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Feb. 1 comes three months after Williams said customer interest was strong enough to attract 20-year agreements of more than 1.4 Bcf/d for firm capacity. At an official capacity of 1,586,900 Dth/d, the project is now roughly double the original offered amount of 800 MMcf/d in an open season last summer.
Williams Pre-Pre-Files for Southeast Supply Enhancement Project - Marcellus Drilling News -- Last November, MDN brought you the news that pipeline giant Williams had given the green light to proceed with a new Transco pipeline expansion project called the Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (see Transco Expansion to Add 1.4 Bcf/d Capacity to Flow M-U Gas South). The project was estimated to flow an extra 1.43 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of Marcellus/Utica molecules southward along the Transco pipeline system, delivering those molecules to states in the southern U.S. Since last November, Williams has upped the capacity to 1.587 Bcf/d (essentially from 1.4 to 1.6). Here’s the new news: On Feb. 1, Williams filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to open a pre-filing review. In essence, Williams pre-pre-filed, giving us lots of new details about the project.
Henry Hub Natural Gas to Average $2.40 on Mild Weather to Close Out Heating Season, EIA Says - Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are set to remain subdued at around $2.40/MMBtu in February and March amid unusually mild weather, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in an updated forecast Tuesday. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA said it expects Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.650 for full-year 2024, up from $2.540 in 2023. Prices then would approach $3.000 on average in 2025, according to the STEO. The updated STEO prices for this year and next are flat versus the month-earlier forecast.
US natgas prices fall 4% to nine-month low on rising output, lower demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a fresh nine-month low on Tuesday as output slowly rises, the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants declines and on forecasts for lower demand this week than previously expected. That was the third time the front-month closed at a nine-month low in the past week. Traders noted output was rising as gas wells continue to return to service after freezing during extreme cold in mid-January, while LNG feedgas remained low due mostly to an ongoing unit outage at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 7.3 cents, or 3.55, to settle at $2.009 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since April 13, 2023. That pushed the front-month back into technically oversold territory for the fourth time in five trading days. Rising price volatility in recent weeks has increased interest in gas trading with open interest in NYMEX futures rising to 1.498 million contracts on Feb. 2, the most since February 2020, for a fourth day in a row. In California, over 139,000 homes and businesses were still without power early Tuesday following massive storms over the weekend, according to PowerOutages.us. In total, the storms knocked out service to over 1.1 million customers, according to local utilities. In Washington, D.C., a House subcommittee held a hearing on President Joe Biden's pause on approval of LNG export permits, the first of two in Congress this week. Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 105.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.1 bcfd in January. That, however, remained below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in December. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through Feb. 13 before sliding to near normal levels from Feb. 15-21. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 121.8 bcfd this week to 124.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while the forecast for next week was higher. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 13.6 bcfd so far in February, down from 13.9 in January and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December. Analysts said U.S. LNG feedgas would likely not return to record levels until Freeport LNG returned to full power, which is expected to occur in mid- to late-February. Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU
Natural Gas Weekly Update – EIA - The Henry Hub spot price fell 26 cents from $2.23 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.97/MMBtu yesterday, the lowest price since June 12, 2023. The price of the March 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 13.3 cents, from $2.100/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.967/MMBtu yesterday. This is the lowest settlement price for the March 2024 contract since trading of this contract began 12 years ago. The price of the 12-month strip, averaging March 2024 through February 2025 futures contracts, declined 12.5 cents to $2.641/MMBtu. Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, January 31 to Wednesday, February 7) in line with the decline in the Henry Hub spot price. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $1.01/MMBtu at Algonquin Citygate to an increase of $0.44/MMBtu at Northwest Sumas. Natural gas prices in the Northeast decreased from last Wednesday in anticipation of warmer weather moving into the region. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went down $1.01 from $3.35/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.34/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 (Transco Zone 6) trading point for New York City, the price decreased 27 cents from $1.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.68/MMBtu yesterday. During the report week, the Algonquin Citygate price reached a weekly high of $7.10/MMBtu last Friday and Transco Zone 6 reached a weekly high of $2.66/MMBtu on Monday. Natural gas consumption increased because of cooler weather this week and relatively low natural gas prices for this time of year. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged 35°F, resulting in 210 heating degree days (HDD), 8 more HDDs than last week. Similarly, temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area averaged 39°F, resulting in 178 HDDs, 19 more HDDs than last week. Natural gas consumption in the Northeast increased 9% (2.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), led by a 12% (1.5 Bcf/d) increase in residential and commercial sector consumption, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia rose 4 cents to a weekly average of $9.46/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands fell 6 cents to a weekly average of $9.07/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending February 8, 2023), the prices were $18.30/MMBtu in East Asia and $17.83/MMBtu at TTF. The last time early-February prices at TTF averaged below $10/MMBtu was in 2021.
US natgas prices slide 3% to 3-year low on weak demand, ample storage (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 3% on Thursday to a three-year low, on a small weekly storage withdrawal, near-record output, forecasts for lower than expected heating demand next week and low amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to an outage at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas. With gas prices now down about 23% since the start of 2024 after collapsing 44% last year, some analysts say gas producers will likely reduce output by cutting the number of wells they drill. The gas rig count fell by 23% in 2023, leaving just 120 rigs in service, and was down by another three rigs so far this year, according to energy service company Baker Hughes. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled just 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Feb. 2. That was in line with the 76-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 208 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 193 bcf for this time of year. Analysts said the withdrawal was small as mild weather last week depressed heating demand. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.0 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $1.917 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since September 2020 for a second day in a row. In post settlement trade, the contract fell by 5%. But, looking ahead, market watchers said they expect gas prices to rise in coming days with much colder weather forecast to blanket much of the U.S. in mid- to late-February. That cold, however, may not last long enough or be intense enough for prices to rise too high. Meteorologists forecast the weather will turn colder than normal from Feb. 17-20 with temperatures on the coldest day averaging about 39 degrees Fahrenheit (4 Celsius) on Sunday, Feb. 18, according to data from financial data company LSEG. That compares with a normal average of 41 F in the U.S. Lower 48 states on that day. SUPPLY AND DEMAND LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 105.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.1 bcfd in January. That, however, was still below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in December. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through Feb. 15 before sliding to mostly near- to below-normal levels from Feb. 16-23. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 122.7 bcfd this week to 124.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 13.3 bcfd so far in February, down from 13.9 bcfd in January and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December. Analysts said U.S. LNG feedgas would likely not return to record levels until Freeport LNG was back at full power, which could occur in mid- to late-February.
US natgas price plunge to 3-year low could force producers to cut output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas prices plunged to a three-year low this week as production surged and mostly mild winter weather and recent liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant outages depressed demand, prompting analysts to project some producers will cut back on gas drilling. Any reduction, however, will likely be offset by increased associated gas production from oil wells as energy firms spend more to drill more oil wells with crude prices up about 7% so far this year. "In our view, producers should likely be looking at activity reductions across all of 2024 given the current (gas price) strip outlook," Gas futures fell 5.0 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $1.917 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Thursday, their lowest close since September 2020 for a second day in a row. The collapse in gas prices came as producers were already upset that the nation's biggest source of gas demand growth, LNG exports, could be limited by U.S. President Joe Biden's pause on permitting new projects. U.S. LNG exports have soared by an average of 34% a year over the past five years, while domestic demand for gas has only increased by about 2% a year on average over the same period, according to federal energy data. Toby Rice, CEO of EQT, the nation's biggest gas producer, told a U.S. House subcommittee this week that the LNG moratorium has inserted "significant disruption, uncertainty, costs and risks" into the industry. Analysts said that uncertainty will make it tougher for LNG buyers to sign long-term contracts needed to finance new export projects, which could reduce the need for more gas production in the future. To be sure, the U.S. is the world's biggest LNG producer and will need more gas supplies to meet growing demand with LNG capacity expected to almost double from about 13.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) now to around 24.5 bcfd by the end of 2028 as projects already under construction enter service. One billion cubic feet of gas can supply about five million U.S. homes for a day. Analysts have said the expected increase in U.S. LNG exports was the primary reason gas companies kept producing record amounts of the fuel in 2023 despite a 44% drop in prices, and it is why they were on track to keep pulling record amounts of gas out of the ground in 2024 and 2025. Another factor weighing on the gas market this year has been abundant supplies of fuel in storage after a mostly warm winter kept heating demand low. "As hopes for a cold end to winter fade, producers are looking around seeing who will blink and cut production guidance first," "With oil-driven associated gas taking cues from oil prices and impervious to natural gas, the onus of production cuts will likely fall on dry gas producers in the Marcellus and Haynesville," Rubin said. Over the past year, U.S. drillers cut the number of gas rigs operating by 41, or 26%, leaving just 119 rigs operating at the end of January, according to energy service firm Baker Hughes BKR.O. Most of those cuts were in the Haynesville shale in Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas, which lost 27 rigs over the past year, and the Marcellus/Utica shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, which lost 10 rigs.
US natgas price collapse to 3-year low is bad for producers, good for consumers (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures have collapsed about 22% so far in 2024, reaching a three-year low on Wednesday as near-record output and mostly mild weather this winter depress heating demand. Low prices are good for consumers who use gas for cooking and to heat homes and businesses. It is also great for companies exporting the fuel via pipelines to Mexico or as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the world. But, low prices are bad for producers and energy service companies that make money pulling the fuel out of the ground. "The biggest losers are the speculators and those producers who didn't hedge," Gas producers can lock in the prices they receive for their gas by buying or selling futures and other contracts so they can profit no matter how low prices fall. Of course, the downside to this hedging strategy is when prices rise, producers could miss out on those gains. "This is devastating for the small producers,". "If they don't see some price relief, some folks in the industry tell me a lot of these smaller producers ... are just going to have to close up shop." Front-month gas futures fell 4.2 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $1.967 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Wednesday, their lowest close since September 2020. One of the first things analysts expect to see with low prices is a reduction in rigs drilling for gas. U.S. drillers cut the number of gas rigs by 23% in 2023, leaving just 120 rigs in service at the end of the year, according to data from energy service firm Baker Hughes. That compares with a weekly average of 147 gas rigs active in 2022. Gas producers were already upset that the nation's biggest source of gas demand growth, LNG exports, could be limited by the Biden administration's pause in permitting new projects. "A continued acceleration of U.S. LNG exports is the single most impactful thing we could do to solve the global energy crisis and provide energy security to Americans," Toby Rice, CEO of EQT, the nation's biggest gas producer, told a U.S. House subcommittee this week. To be sure, the U.S. is the world's biggest LNG producer and its export capacity will almost double from about 13.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) now to around 24.5 bcfd by the end of 2028 as projects already under construction enter service. One billion cubic feet of gas can supply about five million U.S. homes for a day. In fact, analysts have said the expected increase in LNG exports was the primary reason gas companies produced record amounts in 2023 despite a 44% drop in prices, and it is why they plan to keep pulling record amounts of gas out of the ground in 2024 and 2025.
Tellurian Eyeing Divestment of Haynesville Natural Gas Business to Keep Driftwood LNG Afloat - Tellurian Inc. said Tuesday it is exploring opportunities to sell its upstream natural gas business in the Haynesville Shale. The idea is to reduce debt and shore up cash to advance the troubled Driftwood LNG export project on the Louisiana coast, said management of Houston-based Tellurian. As it seeks to commercialize the liquefied natural gas project, “Tellurian has been reviewing its strategy, including the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market in the context of global LNG demand,” said CEO Octávio Simões. “We have concluded that there are alternative gas supply strategies available to us from various basins and our ownership of upstream assets is not necessary at this stage of Tellurian’s development.
U.S. E&Ps Treading Cautiously, but Natural Gas Drilling May Rise Later in Year, Says NOV CEO - North American exploration customers have pulled back on activity, but that may change later this year as line-of-sight focuses on ramping up more U.S. LNG capacity in 2025, according to Houston-based NOV Inc. The oilfield services giant, which provides equipment and services for exploration and production (E&P) companies worldwide, secured higher-than-expected sales in the final three months of 2023. However, revenue still was short of the forecast “due in part to continuing activity declines in North America,” CEO Clay Williams said. “Revenues for North America land declined 5% sequentially, hitting our Wellbore Technology Services businesses disproportionately hard.” Williams discussed the final quarter of 2023 during a recent conference call.
100+ Groups Pressure Banks and Businesses to Stop Backing LNG -- On the heels of the Biden administration pausing approvals for liquefied natural gas exports, over 100 advocacy groups on Monday wrote to major banks, insurance companies, and private equity firms, urging them to also ditch the climate-wrecking LNG industry. "U.S. regulators are finally reevaluating their approach to the dangerous and destructive methane gas industry," said Adele Shraiman of coalition member Sierra Club in a statement. "With the Department of Energy stopping the rubber stamping of new LNG export projects in order to consider their full impact on our climate, communities, and economy, it's time for the financial sector to do the same. The message is clear: There is no place for LNG expansion in a net-zero future." The coalition—whose organizations represent frontline communities, Indigenous land defenders, organizers, researchers, and millions of concerned citizens—called the Biden administration's late January announcement "a critical step to reduce methane emissions, phase down fossil fuels, and protect communities living with industrial pollution.""Liquefied methane gas is toxic for the health of frontline and climate-impacted communities, and a bad investment for banks.""Given the negative impacts of methane gas extraction and export on local communities and the global climate, this decision is morally and scientifically sound," the letters states. "We believe it is now incumbent on financial institutions to align with this decision and to end financing for new and expanding liquified methane gas (LNG) terminals and their parent companies.""In addition to the obvious reputational and climate risks of continuing to expand liquified gas exports, we also urge your company to consider the financial risk," the letters continue. "This decision will have significant impacts on the ability for LNG facilities and their parent companies to move forward with proposed projects still awaiting approval. The future of U.S. exports of liquefied methane gas is in serious doubt and the potential of new facilities quickly becoming stranded assets is real."The coalition pointed to research showing that "the top 60 global banks have provided over $122 billion in lending and underwriting to the world's top LNG companies since 2016," and even customized the letters to individual banks to highlight specific contributions. For example, the groups wrote to Bank of America's CEO that "your bank has one of the highest exposures, providing at least $7 billion to the global LNG sector during this period."The coalition also sent letters to the leaders of Citi, Deutsche Bank,Goldman Sachs, ING, JPMorgan Chase, Mizuho Financial Group, Morgan Stanley, MUFG, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Scotiabank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Wells Fargo, as well as insurers and the investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. "Major fossil fuel financiers like Citi and RBC should read the signs that the fossil fuel era is over, and end their financing for methane gas expansion now," said Hannah Saggau, a senior climate finance campaigner with coalition member Stand.earth. "Liquefied methane gas is toxic for the health of frontline and climate-impacted communities, and a bad investment for banks. It's time for fossil banks like Citi and RBC to stop holding us back from a climate-safe world." "Families and communities that live beside methane flaring, leaks, and even explosions welcome the change in U.S. policy, but it's just the start," Roishetta Ozane, founder of Vessel Project of Louisiana said. "It's now up to the financiers and insurers of LNG to listen to us, hear stories of the impact on our kids' health, and end the financial backing of this dying industry." Other coalition members include 350.org, ActionAid USA, Amazon Watch, Bold Alliance, Catholic Network U.S., Dayenu: A Jewish Call to Climate Action, Earthworks, Friends of the Earth, Gidimt'en Checkpoint, Hip Hop Caucus, Indigenous Climate Action, Leadnow, New York Communities for Change, Oil Change International, Presente.org, Rainforest Action Network, Stop the Money Pipeline, and Third Act. "The world said in Dubai it was time to transition away from fossil fuels—this means that no one should view LNG as safe, either for the climate or as an economic asset," declared Third Act co-founder Bill McKibben, referring to last year's United Nations climate summit. "The world has begun to move, and that move will accelerate."
Biden gas export 'pause' raises hope, concern in US coastal towns -- The U.S. government decision last week to pause new gas-export permits will not remove the massive facility retired oil and gas worker John Allaire sees from his Louisiana property, but it will at least likely halt the plant's planned tripling in size. The export terminal is one of several built in the rural, sparsely populated coastal area over the past decade that have transformed the local economy, but also led to rising protests and unease among residents worried about the environment."Given the jobs, people are ... waiting to see what's going on. But when they see the pollution and flaring that's occurring on an almost daily basis – they see what's happening," said Allaire. The United States last year overtook Qatar as the world's largest gas exporter. That stands at odds with its pledge at last year's COP28 U.N. climate talks to transition "away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner." Seven U.S. gas export terminals are now in operation, with five more set to soon come online, largely in Louisiana and Texas. The gas export terminal near Allaire's property opened in 2022 and today offers a view of hulking storage tanks, gas flares emitting from stacks and marine tankers coming and going.The arrival of the liquid natural gas (LNG) industry around 2015 was seen as a "saviour" for the area's dying offshore oil and gas drilling, Allaire said, but since then it has cut off local access to the sea and dried up tourism. The administration's new temporary freeze, which the government will use to study the sector and its economic and environmental impacts, will affect only facilities that have yet to be permitted. The decision has been applauded by residents such as Allaire, as well as national climate campaigners. But it has also sparked concerns over the potential effect on local economies and workers – and whether there is enough support for communities through a "just transition" from fossil fuel production. "How are we not thinking about entire communities dependent on these industries and how we should support them?" As U.S. gas exports rise, southern Louisiana has become home to three of the country's largest LNG export facilities with several others under construction or proposed. Despite this growth, the full impact of the LNG sector in Louisiana is unclear, with local trade groups and state development officials saying they do not have the data.Still, the sector clearly provides incomes and taxes that are desperately needed in a hard-hit area, said Loren C. Scott, professor emeritus of economics at Louisiana State University. "This is a metro area that is really struggling right now," he said, noting the region has been hit by four major natural disasters in recent years, including Hurricane Laura in 2020 and Hurricane Ida a year later. A decade ago, Scott studied a single large LNG-export facility in Louisiana and found it had a huge economic impact Over eight years of construction, it supported more than 5,600 jobs a year on average, he said, while spurring the creation of more than 16,000 jobs state-wide.Once operational, it employed 640 people and supported 2,800 more."For every new job created at the plant, there are 3.3 jobs created elsewhere in the economy," he said, "in retail, health care, construction."Today, that would translate into around $15 million in local government taxes, he estimated. The LNG sector "is really, really important, and it's very discouraging to see this pause," Scott said. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry called the pause "a gut punch to our hard-working men and women" in an emailed statement."Anytime a company invests billions of dollars to expand or establish business operations in our state, local governments reap financial benefits. Postponing the deployment of those funds likewise delays the positive ripple effects of new jobs and new spending," the state's economic development office said in a statement.
Cheniere’s Corpus Christi LNG expansion project more than 51 complete - US LNG exporter Cheniere and compatriot Bechtel have completed more than half of the work on the expansion phase at the Corpus Christi LNG export plant in Texas. Cheniere’s Corpus Christi liquefaction plant now has three operational trains with each having a capacity of about 5 mtpa. In June 2022, Cheniere took a final investment decision on the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project worth about $8 billion and Bechtel officially started construction on the project in October the same year. The project was 48.1 percent complete in November last year. It includes building seven midscale trains, each with an expected liquefaction capacity of about 1.49 mtpa.Cheniere’s unit Corpus Christi Liquefaction said in the December construction report filed with the US FERC this week that overall project completion for the Stage 3 project is 51.4 percent.Stage 3 engineering and procurement are 83.7 percent and 72.2 percent complete, respectively, while subcontract and direct hire construction work are 66.9 percent and 11.1 percent complete, respectively, it said.
How the U.S. Became the World’s Biggest Natural Gas Supplier - In just eight years, the United States has rocketed from barely selling any gas overseas to becoming the world’s No. 1 supplier, a remarkable shift that has profited oil and gas companies and strengthened American influence abroad. But climate activists worry that soaring exports of liquefied natural gas could make global warming worse. Last month, the Biden administration said it would pause the permitting process for new facilities that export liquefied natural gas in order to study their impact on climate change, the economy and national security. Even with the pause, the United States is still on track to nearly double its export capacity by 2027 because of projects already permitted and under construction. But any expansions beyond that are now in doubt.At the core of the debate over whether to allow more exports is a thorny question: With governments across the globe pledging to transition away from fossil fuels, how much more natural gas does the world need?America’s gas export boom initially caught many policymakers by surprise. In the early 2000s, natural gas was relatively scarce at home, and companies were spending billions of dollars to build terminals to import gas from places like Qatar and Australia.Fracking changed all that. In the mid-2000s, U.S. drillers perfected methods to unlock vast reserves of cheap natural gas from shale rock. At the same time, natural gas prices began spiking elsewhere in the world, especially after Japan shut down its nuclear plants in the wake of the Fukushima reactor meltdown in 2011 and began demanding more fuel. That led to a stunning reversal. American companies, led by Cheniere Energy, began spending billions more to convert import terminals into export terminals, and shipments of U.S. gas to other countries began to surge. Natural gas is most easily transported by pipeline. To send it across oceans, the gas must be chilled to 260 degrees Fahrenheit below zero, turning it into a liquid. The process of making and shipping liquefied natural gas adds complexity and cost, but if the difference between U.S. natural gas prices and overseas prices is big enough, it is profitable. “Production just keeps growing in the United States, which keeps prices low. And then we keep seeing major demand growth in the rest of the world.” Europe has become the biggest importer of American gas in recent years, enabling the continent to slash by more than half its reliance on Russian gas since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the future, Europe is expected to curb its appetite for gas by adding more renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. The main growth markets for natural gas are expected to be fast-growing Asian countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam that want to use the fuel for electricity, heating or industrial purposes. But as U.S. exports keep skyrocketing, critics have raised concerns about the climate change impact of transporting and selling more gas around the world. The last time the Energy Department studied this issue, in 2019, it concluded that U.S. liquefied natural gas often produced fewer greenhouse gas emissions than other types of coal or gas used around the world. That meant that more exports could actually be beneficial for climate change if U.S. gas replaced those other fossil fuels. (When gas is scarce, some countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh have recently opted to burn more coal instead.) But some environmentalists have disputed those conclusions, arguing that the analysis didn’t fully account for all the planet-warming methane leaks that can accompany natural gas production, and that it didn’t study whether a glut of gas might displace cleaner renewable energy rather than coal. The Energy Department is expected to study these questions while it puts permits for new projects on hold. In the meantime, the U.S. gas boom is far from over, even with the permitting pause. Since 2016, U.S. energy companies have built seven large facilities in Texas, Louisiana, Maryland and Georgia that can export around 11.4 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Another five projects along the Gulf Coast are already permitted and under construction and will be able to export an additional 9.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 — nearly doubling America’s export capacity. Three more facilities are currently being built in Mexico that will receive U.S. gas by pipeline and then ship it abroad.
LNG Export Pause Facing Scrutiny as GOP Opposition Mounts - As congressional pushback against the Biden administration’s pause of LNG export permits heats up, EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice said U.S. producers and exporters already have work ahead to abate the potential damage to project development. Rice joined a panel of witnesses Tuesday during a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing. It was one of the first public debates between lawmakers and policy experts on the Department of Energy (DOE) decision to review the authorization process for liquefied natural gas exports since the move was announced in late January. For more than three hours, House members dissected the authorization process and whether DOE’s export curtailment was warranted or a potential attack on the ability to develop domestic LNG projects.
Red states build legal case against Biden LNG pause - Twenty-three Republican-led states are teeing up their legal claims against the Biden administration’s decision to halt overseas shipments of liquefied natural gas.In a Tuesday letter to President Joe Biden and the Department of Energy, the attorneys general of Louisiana, Texas and other states accused the administration of ushering in a “surprise freeze” that bows to the pressure of young climate activists, harms the economy and jeopardizes national security.“Instead of addressing America’s real energy challenges,” the states wrote, “your administration has decided to double down on a reckless environmental agenda through this TikTok-inspired ‘pause.’”In January, DOE announced that it would temporarily stop approving LNG exports while it studies the climate and economic impacts of shipping the superchilled gas to countries that do not have a free-trade agreement with the U.S. The department cited growing concerns over whether LNG exports are in the public interest, a fundamental consideration in DOE approvals.Red states in their letter to DOE invoked the “major questions” doctrine, a legal theory that says Congress must clearly authorize federal agencies to tackle politically and economically important issues. The Supreme Court has used the doctrine to invalidate an Obama-era rule governing climate pollution from power plants and the Biden administration’s plan to forgive $400 billion in student loans.“[O]ur allies rely on LNG exports for their energy needs,” the states wrote. “And meeting this demand requires new export terminals leading to billions of dollars in capital expenditures and tens of thousands of new jobs.”They added: “The Department’s pause jeopardizes all this work — all without the Department pointing to any ‘clear congressional authorization’ to issue this pause in the first place.”The state attorneys general also wrote that Congress has not authorized the department to issue “blanket denials” of export permits. Instead, the White House pointed back to Biden’s climate executive order.“But that order is not sufficient,” the states wrote.They added that the Natural Gas Act requires DOE to approve LNG export applications to non-Free Trade Agreement nations unless the agency determines the shipments are not in the public interest.The statute “creates a ‘general presumption of favoring [export] authorization,’” the states wrote, quoting a 1982 ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.“In short,” the states wrote in their letter, “you are reconstructing the NGA’s regulatory structures.”The states also argued that the pause violates notice-and-comment requirements under the Administrative Procedure Act, as well as the statute’s protections against unreasonable regulatory delays.While DOE’s pause only applies to pending export applications, the move is expected to ripple through legal challenges against existing projects.
What Does A Pause of LNG Export Authorizations Mean for the U.S.? Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow - Natural Gas Intelligence --Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast, in which NGI’s Jacob Dick explores the market implications of the Biden administration’s pause of new LNG export authorizations with Rapidan Energy Group’s Alex Munton. NGI Podcast. After the Jan. 26 announcement that the Department of Energy would be reviewing its policies for authorizing liquefied natural gas export projects, speculation has swirled about what that could mean for the industry and global supply. Munton, director of Rapidan’s global gas service, discusses what the pause means, why it happened and which developing projects might be the most impacted.
Is LNG dirtier than coal? It's complicated. - The White House decision to pause approvals of liquefied natural gas terminals has fed a contentious debate: Is LNG dirtier than coal? Many environmentalists argue that it is, challenging the conventional wisdom that gas is a sort of diet fossil fuel that could help reduce climate pollution as the energy system shifts to renewable power. But the picture is more complicated than that, say many researchers who study the carbon content of fuels. Gas — and LNG exports in particular — most likely contributes more to planetary warming than previously thought, but it still can reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to coal in some instances. The idea is a bombshell in the world of energy politics, where gas has long been touted as having about half as many emissions than coal. In December 2023, 170 climate scientists signed onto a letter asking President Joe Biden to reject plans to build more LNG export terminals, mostly along the Gulf of Mexico, on the grounds that liquefied gas is “at least 24 percent worse for the climate than coal.” Biden’s announcement last month to temporarily halt the approval of future projects until it examines their climate impact took a step in that direction — and fanned the flames of the gas versus coal debate. The argument that LNG is dirtier than coal runs against previous academic and government studies, which have found that LNG can reduce planet warming emissions. Claims to the contrary are often based on a forthcoming Cornell University study, which has yet to be peer reviewed. Robert Howarth, a professor at the university who wrote the study, said previous research about LNG’s climate impacts failed to account for the carbon dioxide emissions associated with liquefying the gas, a process that requires chilling it to extremely cold temperatures. “We need to move away from all fossil fuels. But the U.S. is hugely increasing our production of natural gas. We’re the world’s largest producer of natural gas. We were not 10-15 years ago. We are the largest exporter of natural gas. We didn’t export any 10 years ago,” Howarth said in an interview. “It’s totally the wrong trajectory.”His assertions come as carbon emissions in the U.S. power sector fell by a third between 2005 and 2022, thanks in large part to a shift from coal to gas-fired power generation.But the climate advantages decrease when methane — the primary component of gas — is flared, vented or leaked into the atmosphere at wellheads, pipelines and other gas industry infrastructure.Comparing the greenhouse gases that are released by coal and gas is complicated because the characteristics of the emissions are different. Methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas in the short-term, but it breaks up in the atmosphere after several decades, whereas carbon dioxide can remain in the air for more than a century.Howarth raised alarms about the climate downside of gas in 2011, when he co-authored a study that found that as much as 7.9 percent of methane associated with gas production was vented or leaked into the atmosphere. His numbers were far bigger than government estimates and, he argued, would make gas a greater contributor to warming than coal, particularly over the short-term.Subsequent studies found that methane leaks were bigger than the government had suggested, though few duplicated the numbers put forward by Howarth. A peer-reviewed 2018 Environmental Defense Fund study estimated that 2.3 percent of methane entered the atmosphere during gas production, or 60 percent higher than EPA estimates. A peer-reviewed 2020 study estimated that methane emissions in the Permian Basin, America’s largest oil-producing region where flaring is common, were 3.3 percent. A peer-reviewed 2022 EDF study estimated that low producing oil and gas wells are a particularly large source of methane emissions, with leakage rates of 11 percent.Industry groups have frequently criticized Howarth’s work as politically motivated, saying his numbers are inflated.The benchmark study for LNG’s climate impact is a 2019 analysis conducted by the Department of Energy. It found that the life-cycle emissions of U.S. LNG that’s exported to Asia ranged from 54 percent to 2 percent less than local coal over a 20-year period. In Europe, those figures ranged from 56 percent less than coal to 1 percent more than coal. A peer-reviewed 2015 Carnegie Mellon University study echoed those findings. It found that LNG emitted 32 percent less than coal when used for power generation. But it found LNG emissions were 4 percent higher than coal when used as a substitute for industrial heat over the short-term.The DOE study assumed methane leaks from the U.S. gas supply chain were 0.7 percent. To critics like Byers, that is evidence that Howarth’s numbers are inflated. But his supporters say it shows that DOE needs to update its assumptions. Howarth’s newest analysis assumes a leakage rate of 2.6 percent. Carnegie Mellon researchers, for their part, assumed a 3 percent leakage rate for U.S. gas production.
Texas Hits Record Natural Gas, Oil Production Despite Sharply Lower Prices - Texas achieved record natural gas and oil production in 2023 despite lower prices for both commodities, falling rig counts, and fewer drilling permits issued versus 2022, said the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers. The group, which represents the state’s independent exploration and production (E&P) firms, said its Texas Petro Index (TPI) fell in December for the 11th straight month to 154.4, down 13.4% year/year. The TPI is a monthly measure of growth rates and cycles in the state’s upstream oil and gas economy, based on indicators including wellhead commodity prices, drilling permits, well completions, production and employment.
How an Oklahoma earthquake showed danger remains after years of quakes becoming less frequent (AP) — After a dramatic spike in earthquakes in the early 2010s, state regulators in Oklahoma began taking steps to limit the injection of wastewater from oil and gas extraction deep into the ground. As a result, the number of earthquakes, particularly large ones, declined steadily over the years.But a couple of larger quakes in recent weeks, including a 5.1-magnitude temblor over the weekend that was one of the strongest in years, is a reminder of the danger after the last one shook an area dotted with such injection wells.The quake would be tied as the fourth-strongest in Oklahoma history if seismologists maintain the rating, according to Oklahoma Geological Survey data. Here’s the latest on what’s happening in Oklahoma.
US Diesel Supply Tightens As Manufacturing Comes Roaring Back - U.S. manufacturers are recovering from an extended slump in activity and their energy consumption is about to start rising, with the risk of tightening an already tight diesel market.Reuters market analyst John Kemp reported the index for manufacturing activity had improved to 49.1 for January from 47.1 in December. The latter figure was the highest since October 2022, Kemp noted in his report, adding that the trend signaled a return to growth.As manufacturing activity improves, however, diesel demand begins to increase in lockstep. This might be problematic in case of a fast recovery because distillate inventories in the U.S. remain below the five-year average, by 5%, per the latest weekly petroleum report of the Energy Information Administration.The state of distillate inventories, with the total as of January 26 standing at 10 million barrels below the 10-year seasonal average, per Kemp, is better than it was in late 2023. At that time, distillate stocks were 19 million barrels below the 10-year average. Even with the boost in stockpiles, the distillate supply balance remains elusive.This means that if manufacturing activity continues to improve, it will soon enough lead to higher fuel prices, which would in turn pressure that same manufacturing activity before too long, constraining any growth.Diesel prices are already on the rise, both thanks to the rebound in manufacturing activity and a refinery outage. BP’s whiting refinery in Indiana—the largest inland refinery in the U.S.—was shut down last week after a power outage. An analyst has said the return to operation could take as little as a week but there is no guarantee it will be so quick. BP has not given any timeline for the refinery’s return to operation.The outage comes on the heels of several weeks of lower fuel production across the country amid frigid winter weather, Bloomberg noted in a recent report. Supply, therefore, remains precariously close to a shortage.
Oil market will face supply shortage by end of 2025, Occidental CEO says - The oil market will face a supply shortage by the end of 2025 as the world fails to replace current crude reserves fast enough, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC on Monday. About 97% of the oil produced today was discovered in the 20th century, she said. The world has replaced less than 50% of the crude produced over the last decade, Hollub added. “We’re in a situation now where in a couple of years’ time we’re going to be very short on supply,” she told CNBC’s Tyler Mathisen at the Smead Investor Oasis Conference in Phoenix. For now, the market is oversupplied, which has held oil prices down despite the current conflict in the Middle East, Hollub said. The U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana have pumped record amounts of oil as demand slows amid a faltering economy in China. But the supply and demand outlook will flip by the end of 2025, Hollub said. “The market is out of balance right now, but again, this is a short-term demand issue,” Hollub said. “But it’s going to be a long-term supply issue,” she said. OPEC is forecasting global oil demand will grow by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 on a solid economy in China, outstripping crude production growth of 1.3 million barrels per day outside the cartel. The forecast implies a supply deficit unless OPEC ditches current production cuts and boosts its own output. West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures finished out 2023 more than 10% lower as record production in the U.S. and a weakening economy in China weighed on prices. U.S. crude and the global benchmark are up more than 1% so far this year with WTI on Monday settling at $72.78 a barrel and Brent at $77.99 a barrel. Hollub told CNBC in December that Occidental expects WTI to average around $80 in 2024.
I-85 South closed in Guilford County for oil spill cleanup - State Highway Patrol has confirmed that all southbound lanes of Interstate 85 in Guilford County at mile marker 113 (NC-62 exit) are temporarily closed for crash cleanup involving an oil spill. Troopers say that all traffic is being rerouted onto the exit ramp for NC-62, running parallel to I-85, and then rejoining the highway. Department of Transportation has been alerted to this incident. Stay tuned for any updates about this cleanup.
North Carolina: Triad driver charged after Interstate 85 crash caused oil spill — A driver has been charged after causing an oil spill and sending someone to the hospital after a crash, according to troopers with the North Carolina State Highway Patrol. On Wednesday, just before 12:30 p.m., the North Carolina State Highway Patrol responded to the report of a crash that occurred on Interstate 85 South near NC 62 in Guilford County. A tractor-trailer and a passenger car were traveling south on I-85. The tractor-trailer failed to reduce speed and hit the passenger vehicle. Oil from the engine area of the tractor-trailer spilled onto the interstate. Emergency crews closed all lanes of I-85 South near NC 62 until the surface could be treated with sand by the North Carolina Department of Transportation. The driver of the tractor-trailer was uninjured, but the driver of the passenger vehicle suffered minor injuries and was transported to a nearby hospital. The driver of the tractor-trailer was charged with failure to reduce speed. All southbound lanes of I-85 near NC 62 were closed for about two hours during the investigation.
Portion of Panama Lane remains closed due to oil spill: BFD — A pipeline discharging crude oil at the intersection of Panama Lane and Buena Vista Road is under investigation as officials work to determine the cause of the leak, according to the Bakersfield Fire Department. Fire officials said it’s too early to determine what caused the leak, which was reported Monday, Feb. 5, around 3 p.m. The pipeline has since been isolated and excavation is underway to pinpoint the source of the leak. Showers and thunderstorms expected in Kern County’s forecast On Tuesday, fire officials determined there was no threat to public health. However, westbound Panama Lane is closed from Buena Vista Road to Turia Way. Buena Vista Elementary School, located near the intersection, will not be impacted by the spill. Oil spill response teams are also on scene cleaning up and monitoring the area to ensure the safety of the community near the work zone. BFD officials said multiple agencies are involved in determining ownership of the pipeline, but Kern Energy is taking the lead in the investigation.
Great Lakes Moment: Lest we forget – A history of Detroit River oil pollution - During the 1940s, Detroit River oil pollution worsened when metropolitan Detroit became the “arsenal of democracy,” and no environmental laws existed. At that time, the nation’s sole purpose was to win World War II, and Detroit’s role was to help supply implements of war to achieve the Allied victory. According to the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, massive amounts of oil and petroleum products totaling 5.9 million gallons per year were released into the Detroit River from 1946 to 1948. One of the consequences of this oil pollution was waterfowl mortality. Oil can mat the feathers of waterfowl, reducing feather-insulating properties, which can result in death due to exposure to cold water. Oil on the feathers can also result in buoyancy loss, leading to drowning. In 1948, 11,000 waterfowl died from this oil pollution. By the 1960s, water pollution of the Detroit River was rampant. Industry was king and provided good-paying jobs. As a result, citizens became indifferent to water pollution, seeing it as just part of the cost of doing business. Even though oil discharges declined substantially in the 1960s, they remained a significant problem.In 1961, the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfaremeasured 158,000 gallons of oil discharged into the Detroit River annually. This volume was still substantial because one gallon of oil can pollute a million gallons of water. Oil pollution impacts continued to occur, with the Michigan Department of Natural Resources reporting 12,000 and 5,700 waterfowl deaths due to oil pollution during 1960 and 1967, respectively. It was during the 1960s that the Federal Water Pollution Control Administration (the predecessor of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) characterized the Detroit River as one of the most polluted rivers in the United States. During this decade, industries discharged oil and other petroleum products, heavy metals, and organic compounds like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) like those immediately preceding it.They were killing organisms living on the river bottom, causing cancer in bottom-feeding fish, and making game fish unsafe to eat. Indeed, the lower end of the Rouge River – a tributary of the Detroit River – was so polluted with oil and other petroleum products that it caught on fire on October 9, 1969. On that infamous day, a welder’s torch accidentally dropped and ignited oil and oil-soaked wooden debris floating on the lower river. Flames climbed 50 feet into the air, and the U.S. Coast Guard had to halt traffic on the river. It would take ten fire engines and the Detroit fire boat named the John Kendall to contain the fire and let it burn out. “It seemed that the Detroit River always had an oil sheen on it. As a result, the river had its own unique oil smell during those years – sort of like a gas station,” said Jim Gorris, the retired mayor of Gibraltar, a small community located at the mouth of the Detroit River. “When fishing offshore, it was more of a faint smell, but if we were fishing from shore or along it, the rocks would be coated in oil and the smell would be stronger – a more pungent, oily-like smell of hydrocarbons.” Because of the substantial oil pollution, oil would accumulate on their boat hull, requiring a thorough cleaning after each fishing trip. Gorris said: “Even our fishing lines and reels would get coated with oil and had to be periodically cleaned.”“When we returned from rowing practice or a regatta to the Ecorse Boat Club, we would have to clean the oil off the hull and wipe off the oil on our oars.” River monitoring has since documented substantial improvements over the last more than 50 years, including reductions in critical pollutant loadings, upgraded municipal wastewater treatment from primary to secondary treatment with phosphorus removal, reduced contaminant burdens in levels in fish and wildlife, remediation of some contaminated sediment hot spots, and enhancement or rehabilitation of targeted habitats. This improvement in the river’s health has, in turn, resulted in an ecological revival, including the return of bald eagles, peregrine falcons, osprey, lake sturgeon, lake whitefish, walleye, beaver, and river otter. Oil spill data collected by the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency show a substantial reduction in the volume of oil spilled; however, there are still years when substantial oil spills occur. For example, a more than 100,000-gallon oil spill occurred in the Rouge River in 2002, resulting in a $7.5 million cleanup on the lower Rouge River and both the Canadian and American sides of the Detroit River. Ten ducks and geese died as a result of this oil spill. While this number may seem insignificant compared to years past, it reminds us that oil pollution continues to threaten waterfowl. Although there is no questioning the improvement in the Detroit River, much remains to be done to reach long-term ecosystem goals. Key challenges include preventing pollution, remediating contaminated river sediments and brownfields that are stymying further improvement in ecosystem health, addressing stormwater and sewage overflows, mitigating and adapting to climate change, rehabilitating and conserving habitats, and preventing the introduction of invasive species.
How the Oil Industry Indefinitely Delays Cleaning Up Oil and Gas Wells in California – DeSmog - A new report from the Sierra Club has found that more than 40,000 unplugged oil and gas wells are sitting idle across California — potentially leaking planet-warming gas and unsafe chemicals, but no longer actively extracting fossil fuels. In theory, it shouldn’t be possible to leave so many wells in that neglected state. Companies that operate in California are required to safely “abandon” wells that are no longer in use, removing pumpjacks and sealing off openings forever with concrete. And yet, the report found that more than 40 percent of unplugged wells in California haven’t produced oil or gas in at least two years, which is the state’s formal criteria for an “idle” well. According to Sierra Club’s review of California Geologic Energy Management Division (CalGEM) data, only three companies are responsible for most of these wells: Chevron, Aera Energy, and California Resources Corporation. And while operators do pay modest fees for letting their wells stay idle so long, aggressive industry lobbying has helped to keep those penalties as low as possible. It didn’t have to be this way, said Jasmine Vazin, a Los Angeles-based senior campaign representative at the Sierra Club and report co-author. She pointed out several other states with stronger rules: in Colorado and North Dakota, for instance, companies are given six months to shut wells once they’ve been idle for a year. “Compared to other states, it’s just unacceptable,” she said. Even with their productive lives behind them, these sites can still pose significant risks. “If not properly plugged and abandoned, these wells and facilities can contaminate waterways and soil, serve as a source of climate and air pollutants, and can present physical hazards to people and wildlife,” CalGEM writes in a 2023 legislative report. Unplugged wells frequently continue to emit methane, a greenhouse gas with a warming impact many times that of CO2. They’re also known to release benzene, a well-established carcinogen, as well as leak other hazardous chemicals like uranium and lead.Plugging a well is a complex process that can cost over $100,000 per site — and many California operators have simply opted to defer their obligation by paying fees as low as a few hundred dollars per year. Some companies manage to avoid footing the bill forever. Of the roughly 40,000 idle wells, about 5,000 are likely orphan wells, deemed by the state to no longer have financially viable operators. Orphan wells become the state’s responsibility, putting taxpayers on the hook for the cost of cleaning up the oil industry’s mess. For the remaining tens of thousands of idle wells, the fees that companies do pay are so minimal that those that can afford to close them down routinely choose to keep them unplugged for long periods instead. The Sierra Club analysis revealed that ownership of these California wells is intensely concentrated, with two-thirds owned by just three well-heeled companies.
SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes Tout International and Offshore Growth for 4Q - The top executives of SLB Ltd., Halliburton Co. and Baker Hughes Inc. said during recent quarterly calls that they see years of growth ahead for the oil and natural gas industry as they lean into efficiencies and new technologies. SLB was the first oilfield services (OFS) giant to roll out fourth quarter results, followed by Halliburton Co. and Baker Hughes Co. Each has a considerable presence in Latin America, both onshore and offshore, where they serve exploration and production (E&P) customers and an evolving mix of clients in the industrial energy technology sector. SLB, the world’s largest OFS provider, reported that the international markets are now the momentum driver. Most of the revenue is linked to strong gains in deepwater and shallow water activity.
Oil Giants Pump Their Way to Bumper Profits - Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the largest U.S. energy companies, on Friday reported sizable profits for the final quarter of last year, showing that the oil and gas industry remained robust at a time of doubts because of climate change concerns. The companies’ earnings were down from the bonanza year of 2022, when a surge in prices pushed up profits, but were otherwise the strongest in recent history. Exxon earned $7.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 40 percent fall from a year earlier. For all of 2023, the company reported $36 billion in earnings, compared with $55.7 billion in 2022. Before that, the last time Exxon made more than $30 billion in a year was in 2014. Chevron reported earnings of $2.3 billion in the fourth quarter, down from $6.3 billion a year earlier. The change was due to lower commodity prices and write-downs, especially in the company’s home state, California. For the year, the company made $21.4 billion, down from $35.4 billion in 2022 but, like Exxon, otherwise its biggest annual profit in a decade. The companies generated enough cash to fund big dividends and share buybacks. Such payouts are what investors now look for in the industry, analysts say. “In 2023, we returned more cash to shareholders and produced more oil and natural gas than any year in the company’s history,” Mike Wirth, Chevron’s chief executive, said in a statement. The company said it bought back 5 percent of its outstanding shares during the year. 6:57 PM
Canadian Natural Gas Market Mirrors United States – Plump Production, Stout Storage and Low Prices - The state of Canada’s natural gas market largely reflects that of the United States: robust production, elevated storage levels and suppressed prices. To be sure, the Arctic blast in mid-January that briefly bolstered heating demand and caused wellhead freeze-offs that slowed production in the Lower 48 also gave the Canadian market a boost. Cash prices, especially, rallied on both sides of the border. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. reached an early 2024 high of $16.77/MMBtu in the second week of January, more than five-fold higher than the lows of this winter. Western Canadian cash prices topped the $16 level that week as well. And, of course, the winter season is far from over. But the weather warmed across North America in late January and, with forecasts for more of the same in northern markets during the first half of this month, prices swiftly retreated as traders focused anew on supply/demand imbalance and strong levels of gas in storage. NGI’s National Avg. for the Lower 48 stood at $2.290 on Monday. In Canada, NOVA/AECO C averaged C$1.965, while Westcoast Station 2 averaged C$1.650. The Canadian dollar is worth about 74 cents in the United States. “After exiting 2023 with more than 700 Bcf of gas in storage (the highest year-end level since at least 2017), Winter Storm Gerri brought higher demand in Canada, supply freeze-offs and growing exports to the U.S. to reduce Canadian storage off historic highs,” EBW Analytics Group analyst Eli Rubin said of late January conditions. “Still, Canadian storage remains 158 Bcf above year-ago levels and 93 Bcf above the five-year average and is poised to recover surpluses amid extremely mild near-term weather.” Lofty Canadian inventories remain “a bearish influence for Nymex gas prices,” Rubin said. If U.S. prices were to rally in late winter, “a flood of Canadian imports” in the Northwest “could quickly quell upside” for futures and cash prices at Malin and other western American hubs. Henry Hub futures already are under pressure. The prompt month contract on Monday closed up three-tenths of a cent at $2.082. But it was down about 20% from year-earlier levels. Following the January surge of frigid air, a government report also showed a huge storage withdrawal in the Lower 48. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) printed a draw of 326 Bcf for the week ended Jan. 19. The storage pull easily eclipsed the five-year average decrease of 148 Bcf and marked the third-largest on record. EIA printed four consecutive triple-digit storage increases. After all that, however, Lower 48 storage was still 5% above the five-year average at the end of January. In the Mountain West, stocks were 35% ahead of historical norms, and in the Pacific region, inventories were ahead 12%. Based on that and near-record U.S. production, markets in the West have no need for increased imports from Canada, as Rubin noted. At its January low, total U.S. production dropped close to 90 Bcf/d, down from the near-record highs around 106 Bcf/d at which output started 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie data. Production has since rapidly recovered and hovered just shy of 106 Bcf/d on Tuesday. Canadian production also hit a record near 19 Bcf/d late in 2023, according to RBN Energy LLC, and it has held strong early this year, aside from the January freeze. “Any way you cut it, we have plenty of supply right now,” Paragon Global Markets LLC’s Steve Blair, managing director of institutional energy sales, told NGI. Against that backdrop, bulls in the Canadian market – like the United States – may have to wait for coming LNG expansions to come to fruition later this year, including LNG Canada, and in following years. “Given that the Canadian natural gas market was already oversupplied and struggling with record-high gas storage levels as winter approached, even the most intense cold blast in mid-January wasn’t enough to return the supply/demand balance north of the 49th parallel to anything near normal,” RBN analyst Martin King said. “Being dependent on both a cold winter and strong gas exports to the U.S. to help balance out its natural gas market, the Canadian gas market has been put through the wringer,” King added. Even after the January chill delivered some relief, it remains “mired in a modest oversupply while still dealing with very high storage levels for this time of year.”
Oil spills and fading glaciers: a beautiful world in peril – in pictures | (14 photos)| The Guardian -- A huge retrospective of Canadian photographer Edward Burtynsky’s work showcases the terrifying, but oddly beautiful marks we can leave on the planet A new exhibition celebrates the four-decade career of world-renowned photographic artist Edward Burtynsky, who has dedicated his practice to bearing witness to the impact of human industry on the planet. Burtynsky: Extraction/Abstraction is at Saatchi Gallery, London from 14 February until 6 May 2024. The exhibition will feature 94 of Burtynsky’s large-format photographs as well as 13 high-resolution murals, and the European premiere of Burtynsky’s multimedia piece, In the Wake of Progress In the Wake of Progress will feature 94 of Burtynsky’s large-format photographs as well as 13 high-resolution murals, and an augmented reality (AR) experience. The Exhibition will use stunning imagery to explore how humanity impacts the planet and invites viewers to consider how we can find a sustainable way to live in the future. “With stinging irony and unwavering technical mastery, Burtynsky’s pictures confront our complacency and trouble our arrogance precisely by flattering our increasingly devastated biosphere with ravishing pictures.” Burtynsky’s aerial lens captures the pristine grandeur of the Coast Mountains of British Columbia while also highlighting the pressing issue of glacier retreat due to global warming. To coincide with Saatchi Gallery’s retrospective, Flowers Gallery also presents a solo exhibition. Edward Burtynsky – New Works runs from 28 February until 6 April 2024 New Works offers a compelling journey into the intersection of nature and industry, capturing the awe- inspiring beauty and the environmental consequences of human industrial activities. This exhibition brings together a selection of Burtynsky’s recent works, focusing on three geological themes: Coast Mountains in British Columbia, Canada; erosion in Türkiye; and the coal mines in Australia. Erosion Control #2, Yesilhisar, of Central Anatolia, Turkey, 2022 The Flowers exhibition brings together a selection of Burtynsky’s recent works, focusing on three geological themes: Coast Mountains in British Columbia, Canada; erosion in Turkey; and the coal mines in Australia Share on Facebook Share on Twitter His photographs of Turkey reveal the profound impact of erosion on the terrain Burtynsky’s images of the world’s largest coal port, dominating the shores of Newcastle, unveil the stark and expansive landscapes and the environmental implications of the global energy demand. His work serves as a critical reminder of what is at stake and the essential role that art can play in raising ecological awareness Through a deep historical understanding of image-making, and a mastery of the photographic medium, Burtynsky invites viewers to look at places that exist beyond our common experience, places that satisfy our wants and needs in the present while they determine the future of our habitat. Paired with the serious ecological concern that drives Burtynsky’s creative process is an equally compelling exploration of the strangely beautiful marks industry leaves on the canvas of the Earth Edward Burtynsky: ‘I have spent over 40 years bearing witness to the ways in which modern civilisation has dramatically transformed our planet. At this time, the awareness of these issues presented by my large-format images has never felt more urgent. I hope the exhibition experience will continue to provide inflection points for diverse conversations on these issues and move us all to a place of positive action’ A presentation of Burtynsky’s most ambitious project to date — In the Wake of Progress — will be a special feature of the Saatchi exhibition. This 22-minute multimedia experience, co-produced by legendary music producer Bob Ezrin (known for his work with Pink Floyd, Andrea Bocelli, Peter Gabriel, Taylor Swift and many others), will immerse audiences in the story of human industry’s impact on Earth, told through artistry and scale, urging us to rethink our legacy and seek a more sustainable future. Forty years in the making, In the Wake of Progress combines the most powerful photographs and film footage of Burtynsky’s career, choreographed to a compelling award-winning original score.ITWP Highlight Reel: https://vimeo.com/808786392/61d7e2180f?share=copy A never-before-seen element in this exhibition, referred to as the ‘Process Archive’ will also showcase Burtynsky’s navigation through each of the technological shifts in the photographic medium that have occurred during his career. The exhibition will also highlight local and national organisations that are making positive contributions to the areas of sustainability, biodiversity loss, conservation and climate change through a dedicated interactive space and connected online materials
Will U.S. Export Permit Freeze Impact Booming Mexico Natural Gas Market? Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow - Natural Gas Intelligence -- Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, which spotlights the latest developments in Mexico’s natural gas market. NGI Podcast. At a recent energy conference in the booming border town of Monterrey, NGI Mexico Senior Editor Christopher Lenton was among panelists exploring the changing dynamics of the Mexico natural gas market. In this podcast, NGI North America Senior Editor Andrew Baker interviews Lenton on the main takeaways from the conference from his viewpoint along with major industrialists, businessmen, traders and government officials in Mexico. They discuss the upcoming election in Mexico, the overall mood in the country, how the market has changed under the six years of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and how the U.S. pause on export licenses for...
Tobago coasts in danger after sunken boat causes oil spill - Trinidad Guardian - Officials are racing against time to prevent a mix of oil and fuel from reaching the coasts of Tobago, following the capsizing of an unidentified vessel in waters off the island yesterday. In an emergency media conference, Tobago House of Assembly Chief Secretary Farley Augustine explained that oil had been spotted hundreds of metres away from the overturned vessel, approximately 200 metres south of Cove at Canoe Bay. Tobago Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) CEO Allan Stewart said the oil had moved from Canoe Bay, heading northwest through Little Rockley Bay near Lambeau and into Rockley Bay, Scarborough, spanning just over eight kilometres. Clean-up efforts began yesterday afternoon through collaboration with TEMA, the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries, which is the custodian of the National Oil Spill Contingency Plan and leads the Incident Command Team in the event of a major spill, and Kaizen Environmental Services, a company that specialises in oil spills. According to Augustine, Kaizen, which has equipment stored in Scarborough in the event of a spill, gave TEMA and the THA the green light to use the equipment “as we try our best to mitigate against further environmental damage from the oil spill.” He added that TEMA has in stock and will use sphagnum peat moss, which encapsulates the crude oil that floats on the water’s surface and can subsequently be recovered with a large net. Other equipment and service providers have been engaged to respond to the spill and capsized boat. “I am advised that we have some specialist divers on their way to Tobago. However, it will be relatively dark by the time they get here with their vessel. So, we had to go ahead and utilise experienced and PADI-certified divers from right in Tobago to begin some of the discovery for us. Because time is of the essence,” Augustine said. According to Augustine, Tobago’s Department of Natural Resources and the Environment coordinated the response from land, while the T&T Coast Guard coordinated the response at sea “to ensure that we can mitigate against further environmental damage.” The boat, which has unidentified origins and cargo, capsized sometime overnight Tuesday into yesterday and is stuck on Cove Reef, prompting concerns about the reef’s health as oil leaks.
BP Sees Gains in Global Trading Arm and Forecasts LNG Supply to Grow - A new executive team has taken the reins at BP plc, but the strategy remains focused on providing energy solutions while remaining pragmatic because the world continues to need natural gas and oil, CEO Murray Auchincloss said. Auchincloss discussed the London-based supermajor’s fourth quarter and full-year results during a conference call Tuesday. Formerly CFO, Auchincloss was tapped to take over late last year following Bernard Looney’s resignation. Newly appointed CFO Kate Thomson joined the CEO on the call. Transitioning BP to become a full-service “integrated energy company” (IEC), versus its long-time moniker as a traditional “international oil company” is still on plan, Auchincloss told investors.
US to Increase Military Aid to Guyana Amid Tensions With Venezuela - The US will increase military aid to Guyana amid tensions with neighboring Venezuela over the disputed Guayana Essequibo region, The Associated Pressreported on Monday.The AP report did not detail how much the US will provide but said the US will help Guyana acquire new helicopters, a fleet of military drones, and radar technology for the first time.In 2023, the US provided Guyana with about $2.7 million in total aid, including over $400,000 from the Pentagon’s International Military Education & Training program, which trains foreign militaries. Guyana is a small country with a population of only around 800,000. According to AP, the Caribbean nation’s military numbers less than 5,000 troops.News of the new military aid came after US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer met with officials in Guyana. The US has been stepping up military cooperation with Guyana after Venezuelans voted in a referendum late last year to make the Essequibo region a Venezuelan state.Venezuela and Guyana agreed in December not to use military force to resolve the dispute, but tensions remain high as Venezuela deployed 6,000 troops to its border with Guyana.The resource-rich border territory is under Guyana’s control, but Venezuela has always disputed an 1899 American-British tribunal ruling that Essequibo belonged to the British Empire, which controlled Guyana at the time. In 1966, the opposing sides signed the Geneva Agreement that said they would pursue a mutually satisfactory solution to the dispute.Tensions have risen over Essequibo in recent years as more oil discoveries have been made. The American energy giant ExxonMobil discovered massive oil reserves off the coast of Guyana in waters claimed by Venezuela and has been involved in a major offshore drilling project.
Lithuania Probes Baltic Sea Oil Spill -Lithuania said on Thursday it had been informed by a subsidiary of Polish oil refiner Orlen PKN of an oil spill in the country's waters in the Baltic Sea and had launched a probe into the incident. Lithuania's Environmental Protection Department said in a statement the subsidiary, Orlen Lietuva, had informed it on Wednesday of a 300-litre spill near the Butinge oil import terminal in connection with the loading of a tanker. It said an inspection by Lithuania later on Wednesday showed the spill measured nine kilometers by two kilometers with at least 1.8 tonnes of oil on the surface, and was drifting towards neighbouring Latvia's waters. "It is likely that significantly more oil was spilled as part of the oil sank or evaporated," the department said. It said the probe aimed to determine the full extent of pollution from the incident and its environmental impact. Orlen PKN could not immediately be reached for comment. Orlen Lietuva declined to comment.
Sweden closes probe into explosions on Nord Stream pipelines, saying it doesn't have jurisdiction (AP) — Swedish officials said Wednesday that they have decided to close their investigation into the September 2022 explosions on the underwater Nord Stream gas pipelines which were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany, saying they don’t have jurisdiction. Sweden’s investigation was only one of three into the explosions. Denmark and Germany are also examining the blasts. The attack, which happened as Europe attempted to wean itself off Russian energy sources following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, contributed to tensions that followed the start of the war. The source of the sabotage has been a major international mystery. Public prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist from the Swedish Prosecution Authority said in a statement that “Swedish jurisdiction does not apply.” The probe’s primary purpose was “to establish whether Swedish citizens were involved” and whether Sweden somehow was used to carry out the detonations, thereby putting the Scandinavian country at risk, the authority said. Hans Liwång of the Sweden Defense University called it “a natural decision.” “Already from the beginning, they said that it’s not necessarily the case that this is a crime performed toward Sweden,” Liwång said. The probe “was a fact-finding and evidence-finding process (and) that it may be dropped when they’ve gathered enough information to know what had happened and how.” The undersea explosions ruptured the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was Russia’s main natural gas supply route to Germany until Russia cut off supplies at the end of August that year. The blasts also damaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which never entered service because Germany suspended its certification process shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl of the Royal Danish Defense College said the Swedish decision ”indicates there could have been some kind of a political involvement.” “There might be a good reason for not going out with a conclusion,” Øhlenschlæger Buhl said. “Sweden stands in a sensitive position as it wants to join NATO and may not want to rock the boat further.” After Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden set aside decades of military nonalignment to seek protection under NATO’s collective defense umbrella. All NATO members must give their approval for new countries to join the grouping, and Hungary is the only member that hasn’t done so for Sweden. Its prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has been accused by critics of promoting Moscow’s interests over those of his EU and NATO allies. The explosions at the pipelines took place about 80 meters (260 feet) underwater on the ocean floor in the Baltic Sea in the Swedish and Danish economic zones but in international waters. Seismic measurements indicated that the explosions occurred shortly before the leaks were discovered. Ljungqvist, who declined to comment further on the Swedish investigation, said Swedes had “in-depth cooperation” with Germany and have “been able to hand over material that can be used as evidence in the German investigation.” In Germany, federal prosecutors said “our investigations are continuing,” declining to comment further. Copenhagen police, which are leading the Danish investigation, said their probe “is still not finally finished” and that an announcement is expected “within a short time.” Beyond their geopolitical impact, the Nord Stream pipeline leaks were a huge environmental disaster with local wildlife affected and huge volumes of methane discharged into the Baltic Sea in what analysts believe could be the single largest release of methane due to human activity. More than 16 months after the sabotage there is no accepted explanation. A series of unconfirmed reports variously accusing Russia, the United States and Ukraine are filling an information vacuum as investigations into the blasts continue. The pipelines were long a target of criticism by the United States and some of its allies, who warned that they posed a risk to Europe’s energy security by increasing dependence on Russian gas. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian officials have accused the U.S. of staging the explosions, which they have described as a terror attack. The U.S. has denied involvement. In Moscow, Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, called the Swedish decision “remarkable.” “Of course, now we will need to see how Germany itself reacts to this. After all, this is a country that lost a lot in connection with this terrorist attack, gave up a lot in connection with this terrorist attack,” Peskov told reporters. “It will be interesting how scrupulously the German authorities will approach this investigation,” he said. In March 2023, German media reported that a pro-Ukraine group was involved in the sabotage using a vessel and setting off from the German port of Rostock. Ukraine rejected suggestions it might have ordered the attack and German officials voiced caution over the accusation. The German and Danish investigations have yet to shed light on the incident and while Swedish prosecutors have said that a state actor was the most likely culprit, they cautioned that the identity of the perpetrator was still unclear and hinted that it was likely to remain so.
Spot LNG freight rates continue to drop, European prices rise - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet continued to decrease this week, while European prices increased for the second week in a row.Last week, spot charter rates fell for the eighth consecutive week with the Atlantic rate dropping to $53,250 per day and the Pacific rate dropping to $55,000 per day.“Freight rates continued to drop this week, with the Spark30S Atlantic decreasing by $500 (1 percent) to $52,750/day, whilst the Spark25S Pacific decreased by $1,750 (3 percent) to $53,250/day,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday.“This is the tenth consecutive week LNG freight rates in both basins have dropped, but the lowest week-on-week decrease for this entire period, signaling a gradual levelling out of freight rates as the market has found some support from the Suez canal issues and from improved economics to send US LNG cargos to Asia,” he said. LNG ships, including Qatari LNG shipments to Europe, are now favoring the Cape of Good Hope for safer passage. Kpler said in a report earlier this week that the Suez Canal has witnessed no LNG transits since January 17. “For an LNG carrier transiting from Qatar’s 77 Mtpa Ras Laffan liquefaction facility to NW Europe on a round-trip basis, Kpler’s latest model runs show there is a $0.2/MMBtu increase in freight cost via the Cape of Good Hope ($1.4/ MMBtu) compared to routing via the Suez Canal ($1.2/MMBtu),” the firm said. This can largely be attributed to additional fuel and charter hire costs. Vessels face an extra 21-day voyage time on a round-trip basis via the Cape of Good Hope as opposed to the Suez Canal, Kpler said. In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month rose compared to the last week. The NWE DES LNG for February delivery was assessed last week at $8.199/MMBtu and at a $0.62/MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price for March delivery is assessed at $8.561/MMBtu and at a $0.64/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said. He said this is a $0.362/MMBtu increase in DES LNG price, marking the second consecutive week that SparkNWE has increased. “The last time SparkNWE experienced consecutive week-on-week price increases was in September 2023,” Afghan said.
Venture Global, Sonatrach Extend UK LNG Supply at Grain Terminal - National Grid plc has boosted long-term LNG supply to the UK from the United States and North Africa with two contracts as it expands imports at its Grain LNG terminal. London-based National Grid launched an auction in September seeking bids for up to 9 million metric tons/year (mmty) in regasification capacity at Grain, Europe’s largest liquefied natural gas import terminal. Venture Global LNG LLC was awarded a 16-year, 3 mmty equivalent contract for regasification at Grain starting in 2029. The agreement covers cargoes sent from any of Venture’s Louisiana terminals, including the proposed 24 mmty capacity CP2 LNG project.
Norwegian Production Outage Fails to Lift TTF Higher – LNG Recap - European natural gas prices gave up last week’s gains on Monday, despite an unplanned outage at a top field in Norway and ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Norwegian natural gas exports to the continent were nominated at 286 million cubic meters (MMcm) on Monday, down from recent levels of 340 MMcm/d due to unplanned outages at the offshore Troll gas field and Nyhamna gas treatment plant. The outages are expected to end Tuesday, according to grid operator Gassco. Any potential upside in both Asia and Europe is largely being limited by a rosy supply picture. European Union storage stocks are at nearly 70% of capacity, compared to the five-year average of 57% for this time of year.
Gaz System Taps MOL for FSRU in Poland's Gdansk Gulf -- Poland’s natural gas transmission system operator OGP Gaz System S.A. has selected Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. (MOL) to deliver and operate the floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) in the Gulf of Gdansk. The FSRU will serve as a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal and will be located at a mooring platform near the shore in the area of the Port of Gdańsk, between the mouths of the Vistula River branches, Śmiała and Martwa. The necessary offshore and onshore infrastructure will also be constructed as part of the project, Gaz System said in a recent news release. The project commissioning is planned for 2027/2028. Gaz System said it is also exploring the potential of the construction market before launching tenders for the construction of offshore infrastructure. The company met with potential engineering, procurement and construction contractors last month as part of the procedure. According to the company’s website, the FSRU Terminal will be designed to provide regasification capacity of about 215.4 billion cubic feet (6.1 billion cubic meters) of gaseous fuel per year. The regasification capacity can also be increased depending on market development and growth in demand for natural gas in the country and region. In August 2023, the full regasification capacity of the FSRU terminal was booked for 15 years.
DNV says 10 LNG-powered vessels ordered in January - Classification society DNV has added 10 LNG-powered ships and 23 methanol-fueled vessels to its Alternative Fuels Insight platform in January. DNV reported orders for 18 LNG-powered ships in December and 130 LNG-powered vessels in 2023, down from 222 in 2022. As per January orders for LNG-powered vessels, car carriers and tankers made up the bulk of these ten orders, followed by RoPax, according to DNV. Moreover, 24 LNG ships were delivered in January, representing a record number for the segment, which has grown rapidly in recent years, it said. There are now 493 LNG-fueled ships in operation globally, representing growth of over 100 percent compared to 2021, DNV said. “Strong new order activity continues to demonstrate a promising trajectory in the uptake of alternative fuel vessels. As the data shows, the orderbook for methanol-fueled ships continues to grow rapidly. There are now 228 confirmed methanol-fueled ships on order, which will significantly expand the current global fleet of 29 over the coming years,” Martin Wold, principal consultant in DNV’s maritime advisory business, said. “Meanwhile, the LNG fleet has expanded to the point where we now observe a doubling of the number of LNG-fueled ships in operation between 2021 and 2024, bolstered by a record number of deliveries in January. Interest in ammonia is also on the rise, with two orders confirmed in January, and we expect this to continue to grow in the months and years ahead,” he said. 523 LNG-fueled vessels on order Besides 493 LNG-powered ships in operation, there are 523 LNG-fueled vessels on order, DNV’s platform shows. There are 77 LNG-powered crude oil tankers and 77 containerships in operation, followed by 53 oil/chemical tankers, and 48 bulk carriers. As per vessels on order, LNG-powered containerships account for a big part of the orders with 195 units. Shipping firms also ordered 149 car carriers, 48 oil and chemical tankers, 33 crude oil tankers, and 25 bulk carriers. These statistics do not include smaller inland vessels or dual-fuel LNG carriers. 53 LNG bunkering vessels and 218 LPG
LNG Ships Still Avoiding Red Sea, but Market Said Insulated from Diversions - LNG ships are still avoiding transit in the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Europe or Asia and instead diverting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks from Yemen-based Houthis militants. However, global liquefied natural gas buyers have yet to show signs that added shipping costs and delivery delays are impacting supply or prices. Europe in particular has a healthy inventory of gas because of pipeline imports from Norway and a steady stream of U.S deliveries. Poten & Partners’s Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence, said LNG buyers have been insulated from price shocks because of abundant storage and mild temperatures in the northern hemisphere. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility and North Asia LNG prices have been floating near the low-
Could the Red Sea Remain a No Go Route for Years? Could the Red Sea remain a no go route for years? The answer to that question is no, according to Carole Nakhle, the CEO of consultancy Crystol Energy. “This is not the first time shipping through the Red Sea gets distorted, nor is the Red Sea the only maritime chokepoint for global trade,” Nakhle told Rigzone. “The good news for global trade is that there are alternatives, albeit at higher costs and longer voyage. No one knows how the current situation will unfold but one remains hopeful that many players are directly affected and they have a strong interest in resolving the problem sooner rather than later,” Nakhle added. When Rigzone asked Nakhle what it would mean for the global oil and gas sector if the Red Sea did remain a no go route for years, the Crystol Energy CEO said, “as long as supplies are not lost from global oil and gas trade then the impact on prices will be limited”. Offering his view, Vikas Dwivedi, a global energy strategist at Macquarie, revealed to Rigzone that he thought it was unlikely that the Red Sea remains a no go route for a prolonged period. “Shipping routes will go back to normal as soon as the Middle East situation calms down,” Dwivedi told Rigzone. “That said, it is fair to assume that maritime trade will be the last thing to return to normal,” he added. “If we are wrong and it takes years, it would eventually decrease the netback profits to Middle East energy producers primarily and any others that rely on those routes,” he continued. “The extra cost would not be borne by customers because they would have choices to receive supply from other, cheaper global suppliers,” Dwivedi went on to state. Around 30 percent of the world’s container shipping traffic passes through the Red Sea, according to a note sent to Rigzone last month by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, which highlighted that this also a “key shipping route for oil and gas tankers, as well as bulk shipping”. “The attacks by Houthis rebels on ships has prompted shipping firms to re-navigate their vessels, away from the Suez Canal (a major East-West shipping route) around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, redirecting more than $200 billion worth of trade flows since mid-November 2023,” the note added. “The re-route is adding time and cost to the shipping of goods, with multiple nations exposed to this disruption in global trade,” the BMI note continued. In a statement posted on its X page on February 4, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) revealed that, on that day at approximately 5.30am Sanaa time, its forces conducted “a strike in self-defense against a Houthi land attack cruise missile”. “Beginning at 10.30am, U.S. forces struck four anti-ship cruise missiles, all of which were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea,” Centcom said in the statement. “U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region. These actions will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy vessels and merchant vessels,” it added. In a separate statement posted on X on February 3, Centcom noted that, on February 3 at approximately 11.30pm Sanaa time, its forces, alongside UK Armed Forces and with the support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand “conducted strikes against 36 Houthi targets at 13 locations in Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas of Yemen”. “These multilateral coalition strikes focused on targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen used to attack international merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region,” Centcom said in the statement. “These strikes are intended to degrade Houthi capabilities used to continue their reckless and unlawful attacks on U.S. and U.K. ships as well as international commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden,” it continued.
Russia’s Domestic Diesel Supply Jumps by 17% in January --Diesel supply on the Russian market jumped by 17% in January while gasoline supply increased by 7%, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday, a few months after the government restricted in the autumn fuel exports to ensure stable domestic supplies.“Measures have been taken to increase the volume of gasoline production and to reduce the export of oil products by the volumes that allowed us to increase the volume of supplies to the domestic market in January for gasoline - by 7%, for diesel - by 17%,” Russian news agency TASS quoted Novak as saying in a presentation. At the end of last year, Russia’s gasoline production rose by 3.1% and diesel production increased by 3.5%, according to official data. Last year, Russia restricted diesel and gasoline exports on September 21 in an effort to stabilize domestic fuel prices in the face of soaring prices and shortages as crude oil prices rallied and the Russian ruble weakened. Prior to implementing the ban, Russia had raised mandatory supply volumes for motor gasoline and diesel fuel to deal with a supply crunch. The ban on diesel was lifted three weeks later, in early October, on the condition that at least 50% of producer supplies went to the domestic market. Since the EU embargo on imports of Russian fuel came into force in early February 2023, Russia had diverted most of its diesel exports – previously going to the EU – to Turkey, the Middle East, North and West Africa, and Brazil in South America. The ban affected those exports and analysts said at the time they didn’t expect a prolonged ban on diesel shipments, because of Russia’s limited storage capacity which, once full, could force refiners to cut processing rates. The gasoline export ban was lifted in the middle of November, after the country built a supply surplus.So far into 2024, diesel and gasoline supply on the domestic market has been stable, Novak said on Tuesday.
Europe Sours on Middle Eastern Crude Oil - European imports of crude oil from the Middle East are falling amid continued tension in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. Luckily, there is an alternative: the Atlantic Basin. Asia, meanwhile, seems only too happy to take in more oil from the troubled Middle East—at the expense of Atlantic Basin oil. A split is developing in oil markets, and it's anyone's guess how long it will remain in place with the oil market dynamics it brings with it. When the Yemeni Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea back in November, it seemed like a minor problem—at least judging by oil traders' reaction, which was pretty much non-existent. The assumption back in November was that as soon as the Houthis became too bothersome for shippers, the U.S. Navy would step in and take action that would eliminate the problem. The Houthis became too bothersome for shippers. The U.S. Navy stepped in and started shooting at Houthi targets on land. Only this did not have the desired effect. If anything, the U.S. reaction only made the Houthis more determined to continue attacking ships—any ships now—in the Red Sea. Despite several countries stepping in to escort ships via the shortest route between Asia and Europe, most shippers chose to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope or combine maritime and air transport to get commodities and products from Asia to Europe. This is already taking a toll on most parties involved as both options are costlier than the Suez Canal that the Red Sea route leads to, adding to the final prices of the abovementioned commodities and goods. Oil was no exception. The tankers that rerouted around Africa added not only a couple of weeks to more than a month to their journeys but also millions to the final bill for the oil. Increasingly cash-strapped, Europe had little choice but to look for more affordable alternatives to Middle Eastern oil that had suddenly become a headache to buy. Europe looked west, increasing its purchases of U.S. crude oil but also crude from Guyana, Bloomberg reported this month.. European buyers are also eager to pay for North Sea oil—that same North Sea oil that activists in the UK and Norway want to put an end to. For now, however, they have been unsuccessful, so Europe has some variety in its oil diet. Asian buyers, meanwhile, are buying Middle Eastern crude at the expense of U.S. oil, data from Kpler released by Bloomberg showed. Loadings from the United States to Asia shed a third in January, the ship-tracking data provider revealed.
Argentina crude oil, fuel export requests climb in JanuaryArgentine oil, gasoline and diesel export authorization requests inched up in January compared with the previous month.Officials published 42 requests last month, up from 37 in December.Under a measure designed to ensure local demand is met, drillers first need to obtain the green light from the federal energy department to export – a requirement that would be scrapped under President Javier Milei’s sweeping economic reform bill before congress. Draft measures also open the door for the end of locally set oil prices, something sector players have called for. In January, 28 companies sought to export around 1.25Mm3 (million cubic meters), compared with 809,200m3 in December, according to data from the federal energy department. The bulk are for roughly 30-day periods. In December requests from 25 firms were published.
Oil spill off Brazil sparks hunt for Panama-flag tanker Brazil is seeking further information over an alleged oil spill from a tanker off its northern coast in September. The executive secretary of the country’s environment ministry, Joao Paulo Capobianco, told reporters the government wants more details on the incident, Reuters reported. Philippine tanker spill claims bill tops $50m Read more He said early indications were that the spill was located in international waters, although the information needed to be corroborated. Non-governmental organisation Arayara Institute has said satellite images showed a 170 square-kilometre slick. Initial assessments suggested the leak may have come from a Panama-flag ship, it said in a statement. Brazil plans to contact the International Maritime Organization over the matter. The government is also working with the navy to identify the ships in the area at the time. This is the second time in five years that Brazil has investigated a major spill off its coast. In 2021, federal police filed charges against a company behind a Greek-flag tanker blamed for a leak that dirtied coastlines across 11 states in 2019 and 2020. Officials also charged the tanker’s chief engineer and captain. None of the defendants were named, and police did not say whether the company charged was the ship’s owner or manager. The charges came as part of a sweeping investigation over the spill, which hit swathes of Brazil’s coast between August 2019 and March 2020. Officials said the clean-up cost of BRL 188m ($32.5m) established the minimum value of environmental damages. As TradeWinds reported, the spill off northern Brazil sparked a hunt for clues that led to at least two tankers being blamed for the incident, with owners, flag state officials and researchers denying those ships were responsible. At one point, five Greek-flag ships were being investigated.
Ennore gas leak: TN govt imposes Rs 5.92 cr environmental compensation for Coromandel fertiliser plant - Tamil Nadu State government has imposed Rs 5.92 cr environmental compensation for Coromandel International Limited in Ennore responsible for the Ammonia Gas leak on December 26 last year. The government has also directed the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board to take legal action against the unit for non-compliance with the conditions of the consent order issued under the Air Act. The state government has further directed the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board to implement the recommendations of the 7- members Technical Committee, formed to look into the matter. According to the officials, the Technical Committee after a detailed inspection and deliberation concluded that the ammonia leak had occurred from the under-sea pipeline of the Coromandel International Ltd. close to the shore. It was also observed by the committee that significant relocation of heavy granite boulders around the pipeline due to Cyclone Michaung could have caused damage to the pipeline which resulted in the ammonia gas leakage. The Committee has recommended that the unit shall replace the existing offshore pipeline with a new pipeline with a state-of-the-art monitoring, automatic control and accident prevention system.
Crude prices: India's crude oil imports from Russia hit 12-month low but long-term appetite remains intact - India's crude oil imports from Russia fell for a second straight month in January to its lowest in 12 months but the nation's insatiable appetite for Russian crude remains for the long term, according to data from energy cargo tracker and industry officials. Russia supplied 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to India in January, down from 1.32 million barrels in December and 1.62 million barrels in November 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia however continues to remain India's top oil supplier, accounting for a little less than a quarter of 4.91 million barrels a day of oil that the world's third largest energy consumer imported in January.The decline in cargoes from Russia was made up by increased sourcing from Iraq, which supplied 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up from 985,000 bpd in the previous month.
Oil Market Sees Temporary Fragmentation amid Red Sea Dangers - The global oil market is looking increasingly local as militant attacks in the Red Sea and surging freight rates make supplies from closer to home more attractive. A slump in tanker traffic through the Suez Canal is spurring the beginnings of a split, with one trading region centered around the Atlantic Basin and including the North Sea and the Mediterranean, and another encompassing the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean and East Asia. There’s still crude moving between these areas — via the longer and costlier journey around the southern tip of Africa — but recent buying patterns point to disconnection. Across Europe, some refiners skipped purchases of Iraqi Basrah crude last month, according to traders, while buyers from the continent are snapping up cargoes from the North Sea and Guyana. In Asia, a jump in demand for Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude led to a spike in spot prices in mid-January, and flows from Kazakhstan to Asia are down sharply. Crude loadings from the US to Asia, meanwhile, plunged by more than a third last month from December, ship-tracking data from Kpler show. The fragmentation will not be permanent, but for now it’s making it tougher for import-dependent nations like India and South Korea to diversify their sources of oil supply. For refiners, it limits their flexibility to respond to rapidly changing market dynamics and could eventually eat into margins. “The pivot toward logistically easier cargoes makes commercial sense, and that will be the case for as long as the Red Sea disruptions keep freight rates elevated,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at data analytics firm Kpler. “It’s a tough balancing act choosing between security of supply and maximizing profits.” Oil tanker transits through the Suez Canal were down 23 percent last month compared with November, Kpler said in a note released Jan. 30. The drop was even more pronounced for liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas, which fell 65 percent and 73 percent, respectively. In product markets, flows of diesel and jet fuel from India and the Middle East to Europe, and European fuel oil and naphtha heading to Asia have been most affected. Asian prices of naphtha, a petrochemicals feedstock, hit the highest in almost two years last week on fears it would become tougher to source it from Europe. The impact of the Red Sea attacks is feeding through to oil prices via higher transport costs, which is encouraging refiners to go local where they can. Rates for Suezmax crude tankers from the Middle East to Northwest Europe have jumped by around half since mid-December, Kpler said. Global benchmark Brent crude is up around 6 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, the delivered cost of oil to Asia from the US, where production is surging, rose by more than $2 a barrel over a three-week period in January, according to traders involved in the market. “Diversification is still possible, but it comes at a higher price,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. “Unless it can be passed onto the end consumer, it would cut into the margins of refineries.” The situation in the Red Sea isn’t expected to lead to a long-term rearrangement of oil flows, but it’s also difficult to see a resolution of the conflict in the near term. Instead, there’s a significant risk of more disruptions, particularly after the Houthi strike on a tanker carrying Russian fuel late last month. That attack was noteworthy as the Iranian-backed militant group had previously indicated that Russian and Chinese ships wouldn’t be targeted.
Oil investors try to get bullish as global economy improves: Kemp -- Portfolio investors raced to build bullish positions in petroleum at the end of January amid signs the business cycle slowdown is coming to an end and fears about attacks on tankers near southwestern Arabia. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 97 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on Jan. 30. Fund managers have purchased petroleum in five of the most recent seven weeks increasing their position by a total of 296 million barrels since Dec. 12. The most recent week saw most buying in crude (+71 million barrels) but extending to refined products as well (+26 million barrels). There were purchases of Brent (+53 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (+18 million barrels), European gas oil (+17 million), U.S. diesel (+7 million) and U.S. gasoline (+1 million). Two-thirds of the buying was to initiate new bullish long positions (+67 million barrels) rather than to buy back previous bearish short ones (+30 million). Chartbook: https://tmsnrt.rs/3Stl95P Inventory depletion around the NYMEX delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma continued to draw buying in NYMEX and ICE WTI (at least until the BP refinery at Whiting was shut down by a site-wide electricity failure). Brent and European gas oil saw buying after attacks on shipping effectively closed the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to tanker traffic associated with Western Europe and North America. Naval and air operations by the United States and the United Kingdom against the Houthis, as well as convoying by warships, had not yet re-opened the waterway to vessels at risk. Re-directing east-west crude and diesel trade on the much longer route around Africa will absorb inventories and temporarily tighten supplies to Europe. But the impact of re-routing on supplies, inventories and prices is a one-time event and likely to be relatively modest. Funds held a total position of 503 million barrels across the six major contracts (36th percentile for all weeks since 2013) up from just 207 million barrels (1st percentile) on Dec. 12. In crude, the position had risen to 379 million barrels (26th percentile) up from a record low of just 128 million barrels, according to exchange and regulatory records. Investors sold gas futures and options in despair as milder weather across North Europe and Northwest Europe crushed the outlook for gas consumption once again. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 298 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two main futures and options contracts linked to prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana. Sales over the two most recent weeks have totalled 895 bcf, reversing more than half of the 1,409 bcf purchased over the previous five weeks. As a result, fund managers held a net short position of 484 bcf (19th percentile) down from a net long position of 410 bcf (42nd percentile) on Jan. 16. This is the third time since the middle of 2023 fund managers have tried to build a bullish position only to be forced to retreat as inventories remained above average. After a cold start to January across North America and Northwest Europe, temperatures have turned milder than usual, suppressing gas and electricity consumption. Front-month gas futures prices have been forced down towards $2 per million British thermal units from well over $3 at the middle of January. Mild weather has postponed the normalisation of inventories and ensured prices need to stay lower for longer to force a further slowdown in drilling and production.
Oil Seesaws Amid Stronger USD as Economic Outlook Improves -- Reversing midmorning losses, oil futures settled Monday's session with solid gains as investors balanced the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar against an improved outlook for the domestic economy that is underpinned by a robust labor market, income gains for the American consumer, and moderating inflation. Monday's session saw another release of bullish macroeconomic data in the United States, suggesting economic activity likely accelerated at the start of 2024. The Services Index published by the Institute of Supply Management rose 2.9% to 53.4% in January, driven mostly by faster growth for new orders, expanding employment and imports. All ten of the large service industries in the United States reported growth. "Economic indicators generally look good; however, there is still some uncertainty. It would be amiss not to mention that we are still seeing the effect of people returning to offices, which impacts demand. Though demand has continually increased, it is not at pre-pandemic levels," said a representative from the transportation equipment industry. During the post-pandemic years, there has been a growing disconnect between the strength of the U.S. economy and fuel demand that historically had a close correlation. For instance, while the labor market outperforms all expectations with neck-breaking job creation, gasoline consumption continues to lag far behind its pre-pandemic trend. U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 8.15 million bpd in the first four weeks of 2024, down from 8.9 million bpd in the comparable four weeks seen in 2019. For all of 2023, U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 4% below the 2019 consumption rate. In financial markets, investors continue to push back expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve into the second quarter. Fed Fund futures indicate only a 15% probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to reduce the federal funds rate in March and a slightly more than 50% chance for a May rate cut. As of Monday afternoon, investors expect the key overnight bank borrowing rate to be cut by 100 basis points this year, down from 150 basis points forecasted only a week ago. The aggressive repricing of Fed Fund futures follows a much stronger-than-expected employment report for January showing the labor market added 353,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate held near a 50-year low 3.7% for the third consecutive month. What's more, hourly earnings in January rose 19 cents or 0.6% to $34.55, lifting annualized wage growth to 4.5% at the start of 2024. Economists largely expected hourly earnings to ease to 0.3% at the start of the year. When the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in the Spring of 2022, the economy added more than 5 million jobs, with nominal wages steadily rising to exceed the rate of inflation. Fitch Ratings estimates American households' disposable income increased 6.9% year-on-year in 2023, helped by 5.1% increase in consumer net worth. During a Sunday CNBC "60 Minutes" interview with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Powell said "With the economy strong like that, we can approach the question of when to reduce interest rates carefully. We want to see more evidence that the inflation is moving sustainably to its 2% target." Powell added, "It's not likely that this Committee will reach the required level of confidence for the March meeting, which is just in seven weeks." Monday's sharp gains in the U.S. service sector combined with Friday's bullish employment report and comments from Powell, the U.S. dollar kicked off the new trading week with a solid rally, climbing to the highest settlement since mid-November at 104.319. The stronger dollar weighed on the front-month West Texas Intermediate contract, which has an inverse relationship with the currency. At settlement, WTI futures for March delivery advanced $0.50 to $72.78 bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent April futures moved $0.66 higher to $77.99 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures added $0.0617 to $2.2092 gallon, while the March ULSD contract jumped $0.0648 to $2.7248 gallon.
Oil prices rise after U.S. retaliatory strikes in Middle East - Oil prices rose Monday after the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iranian forces and their allies over the weekend, raising the risk that the Middle East is heading toward a broader conflict. The West Texas Intermediate contract for March rose 50 cents, or 0.69%, to settle at $72.78 a barrel. The Brent contract for April gained 66 cents, or 0.85%, to settle at $77.99 a barrel. The two benchmarks were down about 1% earlier in the session. "There was never a reason for oil to have traded negative this morning, given the weekend's ongoing military actions in the Middle East were favorable to oil," The U.S. launched retaliatory airstrikes Friday against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied militias in Iraq and Syria. The airstrikes, which hit more than 85 targets, came in response to the deaths of three U.S. troops in a drone strike by Iran-allied militants. The U.S and the U.K. also launched renewed strikes Saturday against Houthi militants in Yemen. The Houthis, who are allied with Iran, have repeatedly targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea. "That's coming dangerously close to firing up the hornets' nest in Iran — how long can they sit there while their allies get pounded one after another," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Middle East on Monday to push for an extended humanitarian pause in Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages held by Hamas. Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and the West Bank this week.The war in Gaza has pushed the U.S. and Iran to the brink of a direct confrontation, one which analysts have warned could affect crude supplies if there is a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.The U.S. is also increasing its urgent military assistance to the small, oil-rich nation of Guyana, officials told the Associated Press on Monday. Guyana is locked in a border dispute with its much larger neighbor Venezuela, which is trying to claim the resource-rich Essequibo region.Oil had traded lower Monday morning as the dollar strengthened after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's cautious approach to lowering interest rates.Powell said in an interview that aired on Sunday that the central bank is unlikely to slash rates in March. The Fed chair's comments came after a much stronger jobs report than expected Friday, with the labor market adding 353,000 jobs compared to the 185,000 expected."With the economy strong like that, we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully," Powell told CBS' "60 Minutes." Lower interest rates typically boost economic growth, which would imply stronger crude oil demand.The dollar rose to its highest level in more than two months Monday as investors reduce their expectations for rate cuts. A stronger greenback makes crude oil, which is priced in dollars, more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can weigh on demand.
Oil Rises as Traders Weigh Red Sea Risks Against Fedspeak -Oil edged higher in rangebound trading as investors weighed shifting risks in the Middle East against hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.7% to settle above $73 a barrel after rebounding from a three-week low on Monday. Prices have now returned to the roughly $5 channel where they’ve spent most of this year. Algorithmic trading has exacerbated price choppiness as its trend-following traders quickly flip from bearish bets to bullish ones. “Current price action is instead consistent with CTA buying activity across both WTI and Brent crudes, as rangebound trading activity whipsaws trend signals once again,” Continued tension in the Middle East is supporting prices. The US has vowed to conduct more strikes against Iranian forces and regional proxies, while Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed another attack on merchant shipping. Prices pared gains and even briefly declined after Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said at a news conference that Hamas’s response in negotiations over a ceasefire with Israel has been “positive.” Still, the potential that the conflict will disrupt crude flows has provided a counterweight to early-week gloom in financial markets as traders discounted the chance of a Fed interest rate cut in March. While headline crude prices remain rangebound, other corners of the market are showing more movement. BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss said the diesel market is short of supplies because of refinery shutdowns. A key Asian crude trading window has also seen heightened trading this week. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, kept the price of its main crude grade steady for March as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies stick with production cutbacks to avert a surplus. The kingdom will need prices to average more than $90 a barrel this year to balance its budget, Fitch Ratings said. OPEC+ is set to decide in early March on whether to extend the curbs into the second quarter. WTI for March delivery gained 0.7% to settle at $73.31 a barrel. Brent for April settlement rose 0.8% to settle at $78.59 a barrel.
WTI, Brent rise as U.S. production to flatline - Oil prices rose Tuesday as U.S. crude production is expected to plateau this year after setting a record in 2023.The West Texas Intermediate contract for March added 53 cents, or 0.73%, to settle at $73.31 a barrel. The Brent contract for April was settled at $78.59 a barrel, up 60 cents, or 0.77%. U.S. crude and the global benchmark have risen 2.32% and 2.01%, respectively, for the year.U.S. crude output set a record of 13.3 million barrels per day in December before pulling back to 12.6 million bpd in January due to winter storms, according to estimates from the Energy Information Administration released Tuesday.Domestic production will briefly return 13.3 million bpd in February but then decline through the middle of the year, according to the EIA. The U.S. will not exceed the production record of 13.3 million bpd until February 2025.U.S. crude production has weighed on oil prices for months as traders worry that that the market is oversupplied amid a faltering economy in China. Oil traders were also monitoring efforts to negotiate a truce in Gaza and looking for signs of further U.S. military action in the Middle East.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Egypt on Tuesday after meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince on Monday. Blinken is consulting with allies in the region in an effort to secure a truce in Gaza and prevent the war from spilling over into a broader regional conflict.Blinken's trip to the region comes after the U.S. again launched airstrikes against Iranian forces and allied militants in Iraq, Syria and Yemen over the weekend. The strikes came in response to the deaths of three U.S. troops in a drone attack in Jordan carried out by Iran-allied militants. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that the U.S. will take additional, "further action" after the latest weekend strikes.Tamas Varga, an analyst with oil broker PVM, said geopolitical tensions are keeping a floor under oil prices as expectations for rapid interest rate cuts in the U.S. diminish and the strength of China's economy remains a concern."The false prophecy of ostensible truce between Israel and Hamas has been followed by intense U.S. and UK strikes against Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq and Syria and by attacks on Houthi groups in Yemen," Varga wrote in a Tuesday note. "The heightened tension will undoubtedly entail renewed Houthi hostilities in the Red Sea ensuring persistent re-routing of oil traffic around the Cape of Good Hope,"
Oil Up as US Crude Stocks Barely Built Amid Refining Halt - New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange moved higher early morning Wednesday, partially propelled by an industry report showing U.S. crude oil stocks building only moderately last week despite operations at the 435,000-barrels-per-day (bpd) Whiting refinery in Indiana being halted since Feb. 1. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a larger-than-expected drop in distillate fuel oil stocks in the week ended Feb. 2, while the build in commercial crude oil inventories fell short of expectations and the increase in gasoline stocks was well above calls. API reported commercial crude oil inventories added 674,000 barrels (bbl), below calls for a build of 1.3 million bbl. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, tank farm, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, added 492,000 bbl last week. Gasoline inventories jumped 3.65 million bbl, far above estimates for a 300,000-bbl increase, while distillate fuel oil stocks tumbled 3.7 million bbl, more than the expected 2-million-bbl draw. Data released by Germany's Federal Statistical Office this morning showed a 1.6% contraction in industrial output in December compared to November. The seventh consecutive monthly decline in energy-intensive manufacturing despite the drop in natural gas prices has industrial production trailing year-ago levels by 3.1% and raises concerns over Europe's demand outlook. In its February Short-term Energy Outlook released Tuesday afternoon, the EIA raised its draw expectation to global oil inventories to 800,000 bpd for the first quarter, due to OPEC+ production discipline and a near halt in U.S. production growth. More than half the draw is expected to be realized in total oil stocks held by countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development bloc, which the agency estimates will end the quarter at 2.735 billion bbl. Nearing 8 a.m. EST, WTI futures for March delivery gained $0.50 to $73.81 bbl, while Brent for April delivery was up $0.50 bbl to $79.20 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures added $0.0198 to $2.2371 gallon, while the March ULSD contract jumped $0.039 to $2.782 gallon.
WTI Extends Gains After Surprisingly Large Product Draws - Oil prices extended yesterday's gains (helped by EIA's short-term outlook) after a mixed bag from API with a much smaller than expected crude build. API
- Crude +674k (+1.3mm exp)
- Cushing +492k
- Gasoline +3.65mm (+300k exp)
- Distillates -3.7mm (-2.0mm exp)
DOE:
- Crude +5.52mm (+1.3mm exp)
- Cushing -33k
- Gasoline -3.15mm (+300k exp)
- Distillates -3.22mm (-2.0mm exp)
A much bigger than expected build in crude inventories shocked the market but Cushing saw stocks decline for the 5th week in a row (though barely) while both Gasoline and Distillates saw big draws... The Biden administration added 615k barrels to the SPR - its 8th weekly rise in a row...
The Market Remained Supported Upon the Release of the Inventory Report The crude market posted a high of $74.22 in early morning trading before it erased some of its gains ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. The market remained supported upon the release of the inventory report, which showed larger than expected draws in both distillate and gasoline stocks of over 3 million barrels each. While crude stocks fell by over 5 million barrels on the week, the draw was attributed to low refinery runs due to increased maintenance. The crude market later settled in a 50 cent trading range during the remainder of the session. The March WTI contract settled up 55 cents at $73.86 and the April Brent contract settled up 62 cents at $79.21. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 7.25 cents at $2.8152 and the RB market settled up 4.57 cents at $2.2630. The U.S. EIA said U.S. Gulf Coast refinery utilization in the week ending February 2nd fell by 3 percentage points to 77.1%, the lowest level since September 2021. Total U.S. refinery utilization fell by 0.5% percentage points on the week to 82.4%, its lowest level since December 2022. The EIA reported that U.S. domestic crude oil production returned to a record high of 13.3 million bpd in the latest week. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 3.146 million barrels on the week to 251 million barrels as stocks in the Gulf Coast fell by 5.1 million barrels on the week to 84.7 million barrels. However, U.S. East Coast gasoline stocks increased by 600,000 barrels to 63.4 million barrels, the highest level since February 2023, and U.S. Midwest gasoline inventories increased by 1 million barrels to 61.7 million barrels, the highest level since February 2019.TotalEnergies said it has not sent ships through the southern strait leading to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal for several weeks, extending its ships' travel time to Europe. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea has been disrupted by Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, driving up freight costs and restricting traffic. TotalEnergies’ CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, said that the costs of going through the Red Sea have gone up, partly due to higher insurance costs. Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at the International Energy Agency, said deliveries of oil products are being delayed after ships have diverted away from the Red Sea to avoid attacks by Yemeni Houthis.Motiva Enterprises began restarting a 350,000 bpd crude distillation unit at its 626,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery on Wednesday. It plans to complete an overhaul of a 110,000 bpd coker unit at the refinery by February 15th.According to market participants, oil production in the Permian shale basin in Texas and New Mexico this year will see the slowest annual growth since 2021, as acquisitions reduces activity among private drillers. Reduced growth in the Permian will be a drag on overall gains in U.S. production. The slowdown comes even as output cuts from the OPEC and allies have supported prices, giving an incentive for non-OPEC+ producers to produce more.
Oil climbs on US fuel stocks draw, geopolitical tensions (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, boosted by a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. fuel stocks, and rising tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures settled 62 cents higher, or 0.79% at $79.21 a barrel as of 2:40 pm ET (1940 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 55 cents, or 0.75% to $73.86. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 3.15 million barrels last week compared with analysts' estimates for a build of 140,000 barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Distillate stocks fell 3.2 million barrels, compared with estimates for a 1 million barrel draw. Crude stocks, however, posted a larger-than-expected build of 5.5 million barrels as production recovered after a cold snap, while U.S. refiners stepped up maintenance. Analysts had estimated a smaller build of 1.9 million barrels. "This is the kind of report you would expect out of the post freeze-in with refineries not in any hurry to come back," . Refinery utilization shrank 0.5% to 82.4%. On the U.S. Gulf Coast, the deep freeze knocked off 15% of refining capacity, pressuring utilization rates to their lowest level since September 2021, according to EIA data. On the supply side, the EIA cut its 2024 outlook for domestic oil output growth on Tuesday, putting it far lower than the 2023 increase and predicting it would not reach December 2023's record levels until February 2025. As ever, the market is keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said total victory in Gaza was within reach, rejecting the latest offer from Hamas for a ceasefire to ensure the return of hostages still held in the besieged enclave. The remarks dismissing the latest offer by Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza show he intends to pursue conflict in the Middle East, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters. Traders are also tracking the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels' attacks on shipping in the Red Sea that have disrupted traffic through the Suez Canal, the fastest sea route between Asia and Europe and one that carries nearly 12% of global trade. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said if the economy met her expectations the central bank will likely be able to lower rates at some point later this year, potentially lending support to crude futures. "There is confusion in the markets from mixed signals out of the Federal Reserve ... they are now waiting too long to ease, adding an additional element of risk back into the market," In the longer term, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said India is expected to be the largest driver of global oil demand growth between 2023 and 2030, narrowly taking the lead from top importer China. That comes as struggling large economies, including China's, dent confidence in the global oil demand outlook.
Oil up over failed peace attempts in Gaza, weaker US dollar | Malay Mail — Oil prices increased today over Israel’s decision to reject the ceasefire offer from Hamas and resume attacks on the Gaza Strip, while a weaker US dollar and an expected build in US crude oil stocks limited further price rises, reported Anadolu. The international benchmark crude Brent traded at US$79.59 (RM379) per barrel at 10.24 am local time (0724 GMT), a 0.48 per cent rise from the closing price of US$79.21 a barrel in the previous trading session yesterday. The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), traded at the same time at US$74.19 per barrel, up 0.45 per cent from yesterday’s close of US$73.86 per barrel. Oil prices spiked after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue attacks on the Gaza Strip until achieving a “crushing victory” against Hamas. Meanwhile, the falling value of the US dollar also supported dollar-indexed oil prices, with the greenback falling 0.03 per cent to 103.887 today. If the dollar depreciates against other currencies, dollar-indexed crude oil becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies and exerts upward pressure on prices. However, data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday suggested an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, limiting further price increases. US inventories rose by around 5.5 million barrels to 427.4 million barrels, compared to the market expectation of an increase of around 674,000 barrels. —
Oil Gains 2% as Israel Rejects Gaza Ceasefire Deal, US Gas Inventory Plummets -- Crude oil prices have ticked up over 2% in the aftermath of the rejection of a ceasefire in Gaza, with Israeli forces launching new air strikes on Rafah city, and the Gaza Health Ministry saying that 130 people had been killed in the past 24 hours. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle East this week, raising hopes of a ceasefire deal during his trip. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the war until “victory”. Earlier this week, Hamas offered a 4-½-month ceasefire deal that would have resulted in a hostage swap and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, which the Israelis firmly rejected, while Blinken said there was still room for negotiation, Reuters reported. On Thursday at 11:12 a.m. ET, Brent crude oil was trading at $80.76, up 1.96%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $75.34, up 2% on the day. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, some 27,840 Gazans have been killed in the war since October 7. According to the Israeli Defense Forces, 1,200 Israelis have been killed. The rejection of a ceasefire deal comes a day after the U.S. launched one of a series of retaliatory strikes following the death of three American soldiers in Jordan. Wednesday’s U.S. drone strike in the Iraqi capital killed a commander of Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah, even as the group has suspended attacks on U.S. targets in the wake of the Jordan incident and ostensibly under pressure from Tehran. Also providing stimulus to prices on Thursday was a stronger-than-expected draw on U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks, from the Wednesday data release by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA showed a 3.2-million-barrel draw on distillate stockpiles, while expectations were for a 1-million-barrel drop. At the same time, gasoline stockpiles drew down by 3.15 million barrels, when analysts were expecting a far smaller draw.
The Market Believes That the Ceasefire Rejection Ensures Hostilities in the Red Sea Will Continue -- The oil market remained well supported and rallied over 2.8% on Thursday amid the news of Israel’s rejection of a ceasefire offer from Hamas. On Wednesday, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the latest Hamas ceasefire offer. The market believes that the rejection ensures hostilities in the Red Sea will continue. Wednesday’s release of the EIA petroleum stocks report also continued to provide support amid the larger than expected draws in product stocks. The crude market traded to a low of $73.56 in overnight trading before it continued on its upward trend. The market retraced almost 62% of its move from a low of $71.41 to a high of $79.29 as it rallied to a high of $76.25 ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled up $2.36 at $76.22 and the April Brent contract settled up at $81.63. Meanwhile, the product market also ended the session sharply higher once again, with the heating oil market settling up 7.56 cents at $2.8908 and the RB market settling up 7.9 cents at $2.342. The White House said U.S. President Joe Biden will host Jordan's King Abdullah in Washington on February 12th. The two leaders will discuss the ongoing situation in Gaza and efforts to "produce an enduring end to the crisis." On Thursday, Jordan's King Abdullah began a tour of major western capitals that will take him to the United States to meet President Joe Biden to lobby for an end to the war in Gaza. Iraq’s Prime Minister's military spokesperson, Yahya Rasool, said repeated U.S. strikes against Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq are pushing the Baghdad government to end the mission of the U.S.-led coalition in the country. Damage to refineries from drone attacks and technical outages led Russia to export more crude than it planned in February, potentially undermining its pledge to cut sales under an OPEC+ pact. Under the deal with the OPEC+ group, Russia is capping its crude oil production at 9.5 million bpd. It is also voluntarily reducing exports of crude oil and fuel by 300,000 bpd and 200,000 bpd of fuel respectively from the average May-June level. Analysts say it would be hard for Moscow to stick to this as amounts of unrefined crude accumulate and Russia's ability to refine oil remains limited. The CEO of BP warned Thursday that Europe’s highest producing oil field, Johan Sverdrup, is expected to see its production declining late this year or early 2025 as increased signs of water production at some wells has raised concerns for an earlier than expected production decline. The field has reached a daily production rate of 755,000 b/d.BP Plc is making progress on restoring its 435,000 bpd Whiting, Indiana refinery to normal operations following a full shutdown because of a February 1st plant-wide power outage.Chevron Corp reported an unplanned flaring event at its 269,000 bpd El Segundo, California refinery. It reported a minor leak in a storage tank that caused a release. The U.S. Transportation Department said travel on U.S. roads in 2023 increased 2.1% to 3.263 trillion miles setting a new yearly record and surpassing pre-COVID 19 levels for the first time. Road travel overall last year was up 67.5 billion miles and up by 2.2% in December.
Oil Futures Little Changed, Head for Weekly Gains -- Oil futures closest to expiration on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange were little changed early Friday, following a rally triggered by the U.S. Treasury's renewed enforcement measures on Russian oil sales while products were supported by the low refinery utilization in the United States.All petroleum contracts are on track for weekly gains after the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on four entities and identified one vessel as "blocked property" in what it said was a network in a "price cap violation scheme in late 2023."The coalition of G7 countries set a price cap of $60 bbl on Russian oil exports in December 2022 with the goal of reducing Moscow's revenue for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 while keeping its oil flowing to avoid a global shortage that would stoke inflation. Today's action involved United Arab Emirates-based Zeenit Supply and Trading DMCC that "sold Russian Urals crude oil in November 2023 that was priced at over $80 per barrel that it delivered using the vessel NS Leader." The tanker, registered in Liberia, "made five port calls in Russian ports in 2023."Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson said, "Today's action against vessels violating the price cap on Russian oil should serve as a continued warning that we can and will enforce violations of the cap."The enforcement action added to a reaccelerating geopolitical risk premium in oil prices that had eased late last week on hopes a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza would be reached. Instead, Israel rejected the latest proposal in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called "delusional" demands by Hamas leadership, with Israel's position appearing to harden. Additionally, the United States killed the commander of the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia in Baghdad in a drone attack Wednesday in retaliation for a drone attack by the militants on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed three U.S. service members.The geopolitical incidents bolstered crude prices despite building inventory in the United States amid low refinery utilization. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported commercial crude inventory increased for a second week through Feb. 2, up 6.754 million bbl since Jan. 19, building in large part due to a falloff in refinery runs. The U.S. refinery run rate was 82.4% of capacity during the week ended Feb. 2, a 13-month low, and will likely continue to slip amid an unplanned outage at BP's 435,000 bpd Whiting Refinery located in northern Indiana.BP said it was making progress in restoring normal operations at the refinery, the largest in the Midwest, while a Reuters report suggested the refinery could be shut for as many as three weeks as it investigates the cause of a power outage that forced a systemwide shutdown. In PADD 3, the refinery run rate continued lower for a fourth consecutive week through Feb. 2, declining to 77.1% utilization -- a 29-month low.The falloff in refinery runs prompted gasoline stocks to be drawn down for the first week in six, down 3.146 million bbl from a 35-month high 254.134 million bbl. Distillate stocks fell for the third straight week through Feb. 2, down 7.179 million bbl or 5.3% since Jan. 12 to 127.574 million bbl, widening a stock deficit against the five-year average to 9.564 million bbl or 7%.Bank of America Global Research said in a note to clients that winter refinery maintenance appears to be the highest in several years, and "expect to clean up elevated winter grade [gasoline] inventories."Near 7:45 a.m. EST, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate March futures were little changed near $76.13 bbl, and international crude benchmark Brent for April delivery slipped $0.21 to trade near $81.42 bbl. March RBOB futures slipped $0.0057 from an 11-week high $2.3420 gallon, up $0.0790. March ULSD futures were little changed near $2.8925 gallon.
Oil settles up, notches weekly gain on tight supply, Middle East conflict (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday, up about 6% on a week-on-week basis, as worries about supply from the Middle East mounted and as reining outages tightened refined products markets. Brent crude futures settled up 56 cents, or 0.7%, at $82.19 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 62 cents or 0.8%, at $76.84 a barrel. Oil futures rose throughout the week, buoyed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of a Hamas ceasefire proposal on Wednesday. This week's rise followed a 7% loss in the prior week. "We believe that this type of week-to-week wide price swings will further characterize the crude markets through the rest of this month short of major bullish headlines out of the Mideast that could force adjustment in global oil balances," U.S. energy firms this week also added 4 oil and natural gas rigs to 623 this week, its highest since mid-December, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab said in its closely followed report. U.S. domestic production returned this week to a record 13.3 million barrels per day level, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Last month, frigid weather caused widespread shut-ins in oil producing regions. Israeli forces on Friday continued deadly air strikes on the Gaza Strip. On Thursday, the bombing of the southern border city of Rafah helped boost oil prices by around 3%. "With the words that, 'no part of the Gaza Strip would be immune from Israel's offensive', it was not hard for oil participants to conclude that without even a passing regard for peace, there was not enough conflict-premium priced in," Crude futures were also supported by strength in gasoline and diesel prices as significant U.S. refinery downtime, both planned and unplanned, tightened product markets. Gasoline futures rose about 9% in the week to $2.34 per gallon while heating oil futures increased by 11% to $2.96 per gallon. Ukraine launched drone attacks against two oil refineries in southern Russia on Friday, resulting in a fire at the Ilsky refinery. The Afipsky refinery, also in Krasnodar Krai, which borders Crimea on the Black Sea and Azov Sea coast, was the other facility in the attack. Russia has been exporting more crude in February than planned under an OPEC+ deal, following a combination of drone attacks and technical outages at its refineries. "Proof still needs to be provided that Russia is able to cut oil exports sufficiently even without weather-related constraints," Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank, said on Friday in reference to the country's OPEC+ cut quota. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned another three entities based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and one tanker registered by Liberia for violating a cap placed on the price of Russian oil by a coalition of Western nations.
Oil slicks blamed on Turkish strikes blight northeast Syria river – Farmer Nizar al-Awwad has stopped irrigating his land in northeast Syria from a local river polluted by an oil spill that residents and officials in the Kurdish-held area blame on Turkish strikes. "All the farmers in the area have stopped using the river for irrigation," said Awwad, 30, from a village near Tal Brak, in Hasakeh province. "We'd be killing our land with our own hands if we used the polluted water," he said. "Farmers already suffer from a lack of fuel and drought -- the polluted river has only added to our woes," Awwad added, standing near his wheat crops. Oil pollution has been a growing concern in Syria since the 2011 onset of civil war, which has taken a toll on infrastructure and seen rival powers compete over the control of energy resources. Hasakeh province residents told AFP they noticed the oil slicks in the waterway, which feeds into the area's lifeline Khabour River, after Turkey bombed Kurdish-affiliated oil facilities, including stations and refineries, last month. The spill has heaped more misery on farmers already struggling to make ends meet after 12 years of war, the growing effects of climate change and a gruelling economic crisis that has triggered long power cuts and fuel shortages. Turkey said it hit dozens of targets in northern Syria and Iraq belonging to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the People's Protection Units (YPG) after nine Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes with suspected Kurdish militants in Iraq. Turkey and many of its Western allies have blacklisted the PKK as a "terrorist" organisation, and Ankara views the YPG as an offshoot of the group. But the YPG dominates the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurds' de facto army in Syria's northeast who spearheaded the fight against the Islamic State jihadist group in the country. Mohammed al-Aswad, who co-chairs the semi-autonomous Kurdish administration's water authority, said "Turkish bombardment" in northeast Syria, particularly on Rmeilan and Qahtaniyah in the far northeast corner of Hasakeh province, "damaged oil installations and pipelines" and caused the pollution. Rudimentary traps set up by the administration have failed to limit the current spill. AFP correspondents saw oil slicks on water, plants and riverbanks across a 55-kilometre (34-mile) stretch between Tal Brak and the outskirts of Hasakeh city. While repairs to oil infrastructure were expected, authorities were advising farmers against letting livestock drink the polluted water, which could "threaten marine life and biodiversity" if it reached a dam along the Khabour river, Aswad said. But farmer Ibrahim al-Mufdi, 50, said he had already stopped irrigating his crops with the river before the warning. "The sheep can't be drinking from the river," he said, expressing concern over possible fish contamination. "I just hope that the rain will keep falling so we don't have to irrigate from the river," Mufdi said.
Six US-Backed Kurdish Fighters Killed in Drone Attack on US Base in Syria - - At least six members of the US-backed Kurdish-led SDF were killed in a drone attack that hit a US base in eastern Syria late Sunday night as regional tensions continue to escalate.The drone targeted a base at the US-occupied al-Omar oil field in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province. The SDF said, “Six of our fighters were martyred during a terrorist attack by a suicide plane.”The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the death toll had risen to seven and that 18 other Kurdish fighters were wounded in the attack, but the numbers are not confirmed.The incident is the most significant attack on a US base since President Biden ordered a series of major airstrikes across eastern Syria and western Iraq on Friday, killing around 40 people. The strikes came in response to the January 28 drone attack in Jordan that killed three US troops.The attack on the US base in occupied Syria is seen as a response to the airstrikes. According to The Associated Press, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a shadowy umbrella group of Iraqi Shia militias, took credit for the attack.US officials have warned the airstrikes in Syria and Iraq could continue, especially if there were more attacks on US bases. On Sunday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan refused to rule out the idea of launching airstrikes on Iran.
Blistering Saudi Statement Slams Door On Normalization With Israel - A hoped-for 'deal of the century' involving a permanent Saudi Arabia-Israel detente diplomatic recognition based on Trump's Abraham Accords looks to be effectively dead, at a moment that a hoped-for Hamas-Israel truce also looks dead. Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry has issued a new statement confirming the kingdom will not participate in deal with Israel until an "independent Palestinians state is recognized".Riyadh has made it clear in the Wednesday statement that Saudi-Israel peace off the table until an "independent Palestinian state is recognized on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital."The statement included a demand for a full Gaza retreat on the part of Israeli forces. The Saudis say there can be no detente until "Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip stops and all Israeli occupation forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip."It further calls for east Jerusalem to be established as the capital of a Palestinian state, "so that the Palestinian people can obtain their legitimate rights and so that a comprehensive and just peace is achieved for all.”Crucially it was only on Monday that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Riyadh as part of his new Gaza-related tour. Blinken met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud in Riyadh. The top US diplomat is currently in Tel Aviv. Below is the full English translation of the Saudi statement...
Report: Israel Backing Off on Hostage Talks After Rejecting Hamas's Latest Offer - Israel is backing off from Qatari and Egyptian-mediated hostage talks with Hamas after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the Palestinian group’s latest proposal, The Times of Israel reported on Thursday.An Israeli official told the Times that instead of offering a counter-proposal, Israel will try to get the US to apply pressure on Qatar, although Doha has insisted it’s only a mediator and cannot control Hamas.“The main target now is to create pressure from the Americans and other countries on Qatar, and from there on Hamas, in addition to the military pressure, to bring them down from their delusional demands,” the Israeli official said.Hamas’s proposal involved a 135-day ceasefire in three phases. Throughout the three phases, Hamas would release all remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for Israel freeing thousands of Palestinian prisoners. The goal would be to establish a permanent ceasefire by the end of the 135 days.Netanyahu immediately rejected the proposal and said there was “no solution besides total victory.” He made the comments after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was in the region to work toward a hostage deal, but he left with nothing to show for his visit. Now, Netanyahu is threatening that Israeli troops will attack the southern Gaza city of Rafah next, where more than one million displaced Palestinians are sheltering. Israeli forces bombed areas of Rafah on Thursday as US officials cautioned against an assault on the city.
Netanyahu Rejects Hamas Counter Offer for Hostage Deal, Insists on 'Total Victory' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a counteroffer from Hamas on a potential hostage deal, insisting that he will settle for nothing less than “total victory.”According to Middle East Eye, Hamas proposed a 135-day ceasefire in three 45-day phases with the goal of reaching a permanent truce. During the first phase, Hamas would release all the women (non-military), children, eldery, and sick Israeli hostages that remain in Gaza.In exchange, Israel would release all Palestinian women, children, sick and elderly prisoners over 50 years old from Israel prisons, and an additional 1,500 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas also wants Israel to withdraw from populated areas of Gaza and allow Palestinians the freedom of movement inside the Strip.Throughout the next phases, Hamas would release all Israeli soldiers and men it still has hostage, and Israel would release an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners. The goal by the end of the 135 days would be to reach an agreement on a permanent cessation of hostilities.When asked if Israel has formally rejected Hamas’s offer, Netanyahu said, “Based on what they passed to us? From what I’ve seen so far — you, too, would have said no.”He said there is “no solution besides total victory” and claimed an Israeli victory is “within reach.” But his comments come as Hamas is re-establishing itself in northern Gaza, where Israel’s military declared victory against the Palestinian group. Reports also say Israel is nowhere near close to destroying the vast tunnel network under Gaza.
Former US Middle East Commander Says Israel's Success in Gaza Is 'Very Limited' - Retired US Marines Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander of US Central Command, described Israel’s success in Gaza as “very limited,” noting Israel has failed to dismantle the Palestinian group’s military and political leadership.McKenzie, who retired from his post at CENTCOM in 2022, made the comments while appearing on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. When asked about the level of Israel’s success, McKenzie said, “It’s very limited so far.”“I think they set themselves a goal of removing the political echelon, and the military leadership echelon of Hamas, when they went in. They have not been successful to date at doing either,” he said.His comments come as Hamas is reestablishing itself in northern Gaza, where Israel claimed it had eliminated the Palestinian group’s military structure. Israel is also McKenzie suggested Israel had not thought of what its end game in Gaza was going to be before launching the operation, which has killed over 27,000 Palestinians, including over 11,500 children.“You need a vision of an end state when you begin a military campaign, because everything you do then subtracts or adds to your ability to get to that point. And I would argue that needs to be something like a two-state solution,” McKenzie said. “You’re gonna need help from the Arab nations in the region to go in there and- and do something in- in Gaza. I think Israeli occupation would be the least desirable of all outcomes.”
Israel poised to expand war against Hezbollah in Lebanon - As the US escalates the war in the Middle East by targeting Iran and Iranian-backed militia, Israel is preparing to widen its genocidal war in Gaza by attacking Hezbollah military forces in southern Lebanon and Syria. Such a conflict would likely extend the barbarity being inflicted on Gaza and dramatically inflame the situation throughout the region and internationally. Israeli soldiers fire a mobile howitzer in the north of Israel, near the border with Lebanon, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. [AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg] Fighting along Israel’s northern border has been underway for months since the eruption of the war in Gaza on October 7, including strikes by Israel and Hezbollah on virtually a daily basis. Israeli attacks have killed at least 177 Hezbollah fighters and 40 others, including 19 civilians, three of whom were journalists. Nine Israeli soldiers and reservists have been killed, along with six civilians. Some 76,000 civilians in Lebanon have been displaced by the conflict, as well as 80,000 Israelis. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant made a series of statements last week indicating that full-scale war is imminent. Amid negotiations over a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, he warned on Friday: “If Hezbollah thinks that when there’s a pause in fighting in the south, we will hold fire against it, it’s sorely mistaken.” Speaking to Israeli troops, Gallant emphasised: “I say here explicitly: Until we reach a situation in which it’s possible to restore security for residents of the north, we will not stop. Whether we reach this through a [diplomatic] arrangement or military means, we will [restore] calm.” Earlier in last week, the defence minister told troops on Israel’s southern border with Gaza that “forces close to you… are leaving the field and moving towards the north, and preparing for what comes next.” Gallant declared that “they very soon will go into action.” As it launched its onslaught on Gaza, the Israeli military boosted its presence in northern Israel. Tens of thousands of regular troops and some 60,000 reservists are deployed there already. The following day, Gallant declared again that “the stage will come when our patience will run out.” He warned that “a forceful action to enforce peace on the northern border” would impact the northern Israeli city of Haifa. Indicating the close involvement of the US in the war preparations, Gallant discussed tensions on the northern Israeli border with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin last Thursday night. Over last weekend, Israeli officials held talks with US special envoy Amos Hochstein who has been sent to the Middle East ostensibly to negotiate a deal to prevent the outbreak of war in southern Lebanon. Hochstein is hardly a neutral arbiter: he was born in Israel and served in its armed forces. He was heavily involved in negotiating a deal in 2022 that demarcated a maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, but the undefined land border between the two countries is far more contentious.
Israel Says More Than a Fifth of Israeli Hostages in Gaza Are Dead - Israeli intelligence officials have concluded that more than a fifth of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza are dead, news that is sure to increase the domestic anger directed at the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.The Israeli assessment, which was obtained by The New York Times, said at least 30 out of the 136 Israelis held captive in Gaza have died since the start of the Israeli onslaught. The report did not say how they were killed, but it’s likely they were killed by Israeli forces.Some freed Israeli hostages have said their primary fear while being held in Gaza was being killed by Israel’s relentless bombing campaign. In December, Israeli troops gunned down three Israeli hostages who were shirtless and waving a white flag in Gaza City.The mother of an Israeli who died in Gaza has alleged her son was killed by poison gas Israel pumped into the tunnels underneath the Strip, citing a toxicology report. Israeli media has reported that Israel’s military is aware that bombing the tunnels could create toxic gases, such as carbon monoxide, which risks killing captive Israelis.The Times reported last month that four senior Israeli military commanders said they concluded the only way to secure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages was through diplomacy and that there was no military solution that wouldn’t kill the captives. Israel and Hamas are currently negotiating a potential hostage deal through Egyptian and Qatari mediators. But it’s unclear if a deal will be reached as Hamas continues to call for a permanent ceasefire, and Israel is vowing the slaughter will continue.
Palestinian Groups Warn of Catastrophe as Israeli Forces Close in on Rafah - A coalition of Palestinian human rights groups issued a joint statement Monday warning of impending catastrophe as Israel's military signaled plans to expand its ground assault to Rafah, the small city near Gaza's border with Egypt where hundreds of thousands of people have sought refuge from Israeli bombs. Roughly half of Gaza's population of 2.2 million is currently in Rafah, with many living in makeshift tents and struggling to survive without adequate food, medicine, and clean water. The city is so crowded that humanitarian relief officials have said there is just one toilet for every 500 people, conditions that are accelerating the spread of infectious diseases. The Palestinian Center for Human Rights (PCHR), Al Mezan, and Al-Haq appealed to the international community to intervene and prevent an attack on Rafah, warning that an Israeli incursion "would significantly exacerbate the ongoing genocidal acts perpetrated by the Israeli military and authorities against the Palestinian population in Gaza and blatantly violates the provisional measures order issued by the International Court of Justice on 26 January 2024.""Recent statements from top Israeli military officials and the observed pattern on the ground strongly suggest an imminent assault on Rafah, reminiscent of the destructive actions witnessed in Khan Younis and throughout northern Gaza in the past four months," the groups said. "Such an attack could result in an unprecedented loss of Palestinian lives." "The Israeli military has consistently shelled and bombed Rafah from air, sea, and land, with a recent attack killing 17 Palestinians, including children and women," they continued. "Notwithstanding this, a comprehensive ground invasion has not yet transpired. Nevertheless, statements from the Israeli defense minister, which include an expressed intention for Israel to control the border between Gaza and Egypt, coupled with the ongoing bombardments, heighten concerns about the imminent possibility of a ground invasion.""Everywhere you go, people are desperate, hungry, and terrified."Late last week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared on social media that the "Khan Younis Brigade" of Hamas has been "dismantled" and that "we complete the mission and will continue to Rafah."During a recent visit to Israeli troops in Khan Younis, Gallant said that "we are completing the mission in Khan Younis and we will reach Rafah, as well, and eliminate every terrorist there who threatens to harm us." The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)—whose Gaza operations are at risk of total collapse after the U.S. and more than a dozen other countries cut off aid—said Monday that intense fighting in and around Khan Younis over the past two weeks has forced many Palestinians to "flee further south towards Rafah, which is severely overcrowded." U.N. experts last week described the city as a "pressure cooker of despair."
Pushing Gazans Into Rafah And Then Attacking Rafah, Killing UNRWA Funding Without Evidence Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix by Caitlin Johnstone -- Israel is reportedly preparing to launch a ground assault on Rafah, the southernmost part of the Gaza Strip where Gazans have been pushed to flee to. Israel has instructed the 1.4 million refugees sheltering there to evacuate, along with the hundreds of thousands of people who were already living there before, but there doesn’t seem to be anywhere for them to go. This could wind up being the single deadliest phase of Israel’s onslaught to date.So to summarize, the IDF has been packing the population of Gaza into the southernmost part of the enclave like toothpaste toward the end of a tube, and now they’re going to attack that southernmost part, but it’s totally not genocide and you’re an evil Nazi if you say it is. This genocide is not a genocide. Ceci n’est pas une pipe. Can we all just stop and marvel at how successful Israel and its allies have been at moving the conversation from “The ICJ ruled that Israel needs to immediately cease killing Palestinians” to “Is it right or wrong to starve two million people based on unevidenced claims?”Australian foreign minister Penny Wong has acknowledged that Canberra joined the US, UK and other allies in cutting off UNRWA funding without having seen proof of Israel’s claims against the organization. Empire managers are now openly admitting they suspended aid to Gaza without having seen evidence of the claims that call was based on; they cut the aid because they were told to, then waited for narratives to be provided to them as to why this was a good and righteous decision.If you’re going to say that a bad thing happened and we therefore need to cut off aid to the most aid-dependent population on earth, then you’d better at least be able to prove the bad thing actually happened. If evidence exists, then show it. If you insist on starving two million people, you can’t do it on vibes alone.How is this not obvious to everyone? How was it not immediately obvious the instant it came up? Time and time again we are asked to consent to the empire doing the most heinous things to the most vulnerable populations on secret, invisible evidence. We are expected to trust their secret evidence without getting to look at it, even though they’ve been caught lying about things like this over and over and over again. They think we’re idiots.
However Bad You Think Israel Is, It's Worse by Caitlin Johnstone by Caitlin Johnstone -- So it turns out the IDF has been running a Telegram channel featuring homemade snuff films in which Gazans are brutally murdered by Israeli forces, captioned with celebrations of the gore and pain therein like “Burning their mother… You won’t believe the video we got! You can hear their bones crunch.” The IDF had previously denied any association with the channel, but Haaretz now reports that it was directly run by an IDF psychological warfare unit. This is one of those many, many times where Israel is so awful that at first you’re not sure what you’re looking at. You think you must be misreading the report. Then you read it again and go “Oh wow, that’s SO much worse than I would have guessed.” However bad you think Israel is, you can always be sure that information will come out later that proves it’s even worse. … The US has never done anything good for the middle east. All it’s brought to the region is a bunch of murderous military operations and the nonstop murderous military operation that is the state of Israel. Setting up a bunch of military bases in countries on the other side of the planet and then going to war with anyone who tries to kick them out is pretty much the exact opposite of how a sane and ethical military would be used. US foreign policy is essentially one big long war against disobedience. Bombing, regime changing, starving and destabilizing any population anywhere on earth who dares to insist on its own self-sovereignty instead of letting itself be absorbed into the folds of the global empire. They call different parts of it the Israel-Hamas War, the Iraq War, the War on Terror, but really it’s all the same war: the war on disobedience. One long operation to brutalize the global population into obedience and submission, year after year, decade after decade.
Zelensky Removes His Top General, A Move That's Expected to Backfire - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday said that he removed Gen. Valery Zaluzhny from his position as Ukrainian commander-in-chief, a move that’s expected to backfire due to the general’s popularity both within the military and among Ukraine’s civilian population.“Starting today, a new management team will take over the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Zelensky said in his evening address on Thursday. He is replacing Zaluzhny with Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s ground forces commander, who is said to be close to the president.Zaluzhny’s sacking was expected after Ukrainian media reported last week that he met with Zelensky on January 29 and was offered another post, but he refused to step down.Zaluzhny has overseen the Ukrainian war effort since Russia invaded in February 2022. Zelensky said he thanked Zaluzhny for his service but that the “tasks of 2022 are different from those of 2024. Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to the new realities as well. In order to win together.”Zaluzhny and Zelensky have long been at odds, a spat that spilled out into the public last fall when the general called the war a stalemate and said there would be no breakthrough in the counter-offensive, drawing a sharp rebuke from Zelensky.
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